diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_442.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_442.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_442.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ +2. Net losses: $667M (2019), $149M (Sep 30 2020) +3. Expect cost to increase over time and loss will continue +4. Competitors: Uber Eats, Grubhub +5. Potential reclassification of Dashers as employees instead of independent contractors + +Upside: + +1. 18M consumers, 390k merchants, 1M Dashers +2. Has the largest market share in the US (Sep 30 2020): Doordash: 50%, Uber Eats: 33%, Grubhub: 16% +3. Huge market opportunity: US consumers on Doordash platform is less than 6% of total US population. Gross order value (GOV) of Doordash is less than 3% of off-premise spend at restaurants and other consumer foodservices in the US. +4. Growing revenue: $885M (2019), $1.9B (Sep 30 2020). + +Lock-up Agreement: (discussed in the video). +I have recently escaped an abusive relationship. It had gotten so bad that he was being physically abusive and was actively cheating on me, while being controlling and expecting me to pay all the bills and run the house on my own. He occasionally would contribute, but most of the time he would go and stay at his parents house to "save money". + +I was also stupid enough to help him with the down-payment of the car and pay for the monthly installments. I have lost thousands in this relationship that could've patched me up and which I have lost all hope of recovering. Add to that having to break out from my previous tenancy (my landlord wasn't happy, as it meant getting out before the 2 year break clause and currently I am fighting him to get the deposit back), and having to use what I had left to get into temporary accommodation and then into a new flat. In total, I must have spent around 4k, which ate through the savings I had. + +I have some jewellery I can pawn, however it has high sentimental value as it belonged to my mum (she passed away from colorectal cancer in 2019) and that is my last resort. I get paid earlier this month, as payroll runs early during Christmas at my work, but I have outstanding bills that I need to pay ASAP to avoid missing payments on my credit score. + +I have never been on benefits or have asked for any financial help, as I've always aimed to be financially independent and have my money in order. I have just found myself in a horrible situation, which, conpounded with my mental health (currently under the Crisis team in my Borough) is making me feel at my lowest. +Long-time anonymous reader and (relatively) new member here! Found fewer psychedelic DD's lately than I'd hoped, so thought I'd provide one of my own to spark discussion. This is a new and growing sector, and I strongly believe it deserves more attention! I’ll cover it in three sections: a quick Psychedelics intro, a brief DD on MindMed, and then an overview of the sector as a whole. + +&#x200B; + +**Background on the Sector** + +There are three topics everyone who wants to understand the Psychedelic Sector needs to know up front: + +**1) Intent:** This sector is fundamentally different from the Cannabis Sector in a large way. The target market is primarily medicinal uses rather than recreational uses. Cannabis has a large recreational movement, where psychedelics have a small one. While this may deter some folks, I find it reassuring: to play in this space a company must be serious and committed. + +**2) Diversity:** There are a number of drugs in the psychedelic space - psilocybin (mushrooms), LSD (acid), MDMA (ecstasy), ketamine (anesthetic), to name a few. Each is in some stage of clinical trials, and each company is attempting to use different ones to treat different mental and behavioral health conditions. These conditions are diverse as well, though the largest target markets include ADHD, anxiety, depression, PTSD, and drug and alcohol addiction. + +**3) Delivery:** Psychedelic research today is not seeking to put high volumes of over-the-counter mushrooms or LSD pills in your local CVS. Psychedelics are being researched in controlled microdoses, and the intended delivery is by trained therapists through guided psychotherapy sessions. Psychedelics on their own may give your mind a period of disconnection and subdued feelings of fear, but with proper guidance from a trained therapist this period also becomes an opportunity for "rewiring" old mental blocks that lead to mental illness. Some people begin to break through chronic mental health barriers in just a few appointments. CNN recently covered the sector in an hour long special under Lisa Ling's "This is Life" series called "Psychedelic Healing" (Season 7, Episode 6). This demonstrates the delivery method well, as well as several early success stories. It's available on several paid streaming services, including Amazon Prime and Youtube, but I'm linking a [CNN article](https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/20/opinions/psychedelics-trauma-healing-this-is-life-heacock/index.html) on the episode so you can get the gist of it abbreviated and free. That being said, I highly recommend watching the episode if you have access to it! + +&#x200B; + +**MindMed DD** + +Though my summary is below, don’t just take my word for it! MindMed has an incredibly well organized [website](https://mindmed.co/) where you can see much of this for yourself. + +*As an investor in a sector with a diversity of molecules and a diversity of applications*, you want a company that has a diverse approach. **That’s MindMed** \- which is in Phase 1 or Phase 2 trials with each 18-MC, LSD, MDMA, DMT, and psilocybin tackling a variety of conditions, including anxiety, opioid withdrawal, ADHD, and cluster headaches, to name a few. This diversity give MindMed a high chance of having not just one, but several breakthrough molecules. Kevin O’Leary (yes, Shark Tank’s Mr. Wonderful) is perhaps the most well-known investor in MindMed. He does a great job summarizing MindMed’s uniquely strong position in this [video](https://youtu.be/Vo-HA1-TaFQ) recorded by TraderTV Live about a month ago alongside MindMed’s CEO JR Rahn. + +*As an investor in a sector that requires integration with therapists*, including new tools and training, you want a company that is developing more than just the necessary drugs. **MindMed is the whole package.** MindMed has paired with NYU to develop therapist training strategies and has announced its launch of Albert, a digital medicine division meant to tie it all together. MindMed's recent announcements have indicated they are actively hiring to give this division more depth and to potentially undertake an acquisition in the digital platform space. MindMed is already thinking about **how** we make this work. In the future, a therapist will have use this digital tool to keep a list of psychedelic options catered to a host of mental conditions, and each will be tied to delivery strategies and training. MindMed's wholistic view from clinical trials through implementation is what sets them apart from others in the sector. + +*As an investor in a sector that is "breakthrough" in nature*, you want a company that has the right leadership. In January, Robert Barrow entered the MindMed team as the Chief Development Officer. Robert brings extensive knowledge of psilocybin research, but more importantly he was part of securing the Breakthrough Therapy Designation with the FDA for his prior psilocybin program (Phase 2 Clinical Trials) at the Usona Institute. MindMed hopes to secure similar breakthrough designations for their trials and fast-track them. Bruce Linton, former Canopy Growth (CGC) Chairman and CEO, sits on MindMed's Board of Directors. Dr. Halperin Wernli and Carol Nast, President and COO respectively, each help round out the management team with over 50 combined years of leadership in drug and product development in emerging markets and heavily regulated environments. + +Finally, I know every investor wants to know how much the stock price will move over time, so here are a few catalysts to think on: + +**Short-term catalyst:** MindMed has applied to uplist on the NASDAQ, which will open it up to a myriad of retail and institutional investors who currently don’t have access to the stock on the NEO. There’s some speculation around when the uplisting will come through, which is best recapped on Reddit [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/MindMedInvestorsClub/comments/kwkzby/the_endall_beall_mindmed_nasdaq_uplisting_post/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf). Thanks [u/darrinkoehler](https://www.reddit.com/u/darrinkoehler/) for the fantastic, and specific, DD! + +**Long-term catalysts:** This is more obvious, but of course any trial milestones are catalysts! I’m particularly excited about August/September this year when we expect Phase 2b trial results to begin rolling in, though Phase 1 announcements will continue to occur as the portfolio grows as well. With any luck, breakthrough designations will accelerate trials and portfolio growth further. + +&#x200B; + +**Psychedelic Sector DD** + +The Psychedelic Sector is perhaps best represented today by the new Horizons ETF: PSYK, listed on the NEO the last week of January. You can find the ETF summary [here](https://www.horizonsetfs.com/etf/psyk). Three companies make up the largest holdings: MindMed, Compass Pathways, and Numinus Wellness, though 14 others are also held in the ETF. A quick summarized list of the top half of the holdings: + +* **Compass Pathways (CMPS)** [Website](https://compasspathways.com/) + * Primarily psilocybin for depression + * Received Breakthrough Therapy designation from FDA in 2018, currently in Phase 2b trials + * IPO'd in 3Q 2020 on the NASDAQ; Largest player along with MindMed +* **MindMed (MMED/MMEDF)** [Website](https://mindmed.co/) + * Diverse portfolio - described above + * Listed on the NEO in 1Q2020, also OTC; currently seeking NASDAQ uplisting +* **Numinus Wellness (NUMI/LKYSF)** [Website](https://numinus.ca/) + * Ketamine, psilocybin, and MDMA for depression, PTSD, and substance abuse + * Potential catalyst with Health Canada revision of Special Access Program (SAP), allowing access to psilocybin and MDMA outside of clinical trials. Revision decision expected this week. + * Listed on TSX in 2Q 2020, also OTC; Focused on Canada market and licensing at present +* **Seelos Therapeutics (SEEL)** [Website](https://seelostherapeutics.com/) + * Ketamine for suicide, depression, and PTSD; a number of other drugs in the pipeline for gene therapy, ALS, and Parkinson's + * Listed on NASDAQ +* **Cybin (CYBN/CYBNF)** [Website](https://www.cybin.com/) + * Currently has more than half a dozen patent filings for a variety of drugs and psychedelics. Currently working more as a discovery platform for new molecules. + * Listed on NEO +* **Greenbrook TMS (GTMS/GBOKF)** [Website](https://www.greenbrooktms.com/) + * Uses Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) rather than medication to treat depression, among other conditions. Definitely the oddball among the ETF, but similar end goal. + * Listed on TO; applying to uplist on NASDAQ; completed share consolidation (5:1) last week to meet NASDAQ share price requirements +* **Field Trip Health (FTRP/FTRPF)** [Website](https://www.fieldtriphealth.com/) + * Ketamine for anxiety and depression; ketamine is available today though it is an older known antidepressant, so treatment programs and psychotherapy sessions are active today. Ketamine has a relaxing effect rather than a rewiring effect, so long-term efficacy compared to other psychedelics is debatable + * Listed on CSE, also OTC +* **Red Light Holland (TRIP/TRUFF)** [Website](https://redlighttruffles.com/) + * The recreational play in the ETF; sells legal magic truffles and microdosing kits; purchases are restricted to those 18+ in the Netherlands; expansion would be possible with legalization elsewhere + * Listed on CSE, also OTC +* **Revive Therapeutics (RVV/RVVTF)** [Website](https://revivethera.com/) + * Psilocybin for meth abuse, as well as half a dozen patents for psilocybin delivery (gum drops, oral strips, capsules, etc); portfolio includes other drugs, including bucillamine as a CoVid-19 treatment and cannabidiol oil for hepatitis + * Listed on CSE, also OTC + +&#x200B; + +**Final Thoughts** + +This last bit is for a good friend of mine who’s needed convincing on getting into psychedelics. If you believe the sector is too speculative or fear that clinical trials will fail, this bit is for you, too. While I share this fear for the countless drug trials outside this sector that each feel like a shot in the dark, this is fundamentally different. Psychedelic effects are much better understood (these aren’t new lab creations - people have been using psychedelics for decades!) and there are already hundreds of accounts of positive mental change with psychedelic assisted therapy. If you have doubts about success cases, read the CNN article and video mentioned above or do your own search for a few cases - they’re everywhere (including the company sites above) and they’re well documented. At this point, clinical trials feel like a formality rather than a true test. To make the case even stronger, psychedelics coming out of successful trials will be compared to current mental health treatments before becoming mainstream. The current market isn't much of a competitor - Prozac is synonymous with false happiness, and many people under similar treatments feel bound to their drug living within a shell of themselves. Psychedelics can be a more effective treatment that truly resolves a mental block at its source, and I truly believe they will change the way society approaches mental health. + +As if it weren’t obvious, I’m a big fan of a change in the mental health space and I’m long in the Psychedelic Sector, with a lean towards MindMed. I’m not a financial advisor, you should do your own research, and on top of that I think you’ll find it’s fun to create your own DD! + +Cheers to this being the first of many DD posts! + +Edit 1: Had a mod encourage me to share my positions. MindMed - 100k shares @ $0.75 avg, NUMI 30k shares @ $1.05 avg, and honorable mention: EHave (EHVVF) - 300k shares @ $0.10 avg. For those curious, Ehave is a smaller player with large growth potential, playing in the digital/blockchain space just as heard as the research space. I've already pinged Horizon ETF for why they're not included in their ETF. I'll follow up with an edit once I hear more ;) +HDFL is a community-run token created for the Crypto Community, that will be powering a cell phone application allowing users to screen for various forms of nefarious coding and potential "Rug pulls", all while ever increasing in value with a 10% burn on every buy and sell transaction. + +&#x200B; + +*Active Giveaways:* + +* 1B HDFL tokens on Twitter + +*Recently Completed Giveaways:* + +* 2B HDFL tokens +* 1B HDFL tokens + +&#x200B; + +*Confirmed use cases:* + +* Rug-screener +* DoxxLocker © + +&#x200B; + +*Promotional:* + +* Tiktok partnerships +* Frequent Reddit posts +* Devs in voice chat daily (10pm Eastern) +* IRL networking +* Merch and much much more. +* 🚀CMC listing expected ANY moment now. Representatives have confirmed🚀 + +&#x200B; + +Website - [www.HyperDeflate.com](http://www.hyperdeflate.com/) + +TG: [https://t.me/hyperdeflate](https://t.me/hyperdeflate) + +&#x200B; + +Background: + +HyperDeflate was born as a result of two things: frustration and empathy; a weird combination. Two investors, the founding developer team, became overwhelmed by the amount of nefarious activity occurring in the crypto space. It seemed as though there were very few safe investments, where developers were genuine and transparent. The need for the HyperDeflate token ($HDFL) was born. Now, the core dev team is up to 6 members with distinct roles, and 8+ others who have kindly offered help across social platforms. + +Not so much the final straw, as the final rug. Losing well over 5 figures USD each, MG and Ed took matters into their own hands and conceived the first iteration of Hyper Deflate. The idea was to bring a breath of fresh air to the BSC market, in the form of transparency, honesty, and willingness to work until the project affected material positive change for the BSC markets. + +The world was then ready to learn of Hyper Deflate. Launching a website, social profiles and a telegram channel, the collective interest for Hyper Deflate started to grow. In a matter of 6 days, the group grew to and quickly surpassed 500 members, the threshold for the presale release. No bots, no shillers, just word of mouth, a tiktok partnership and a couple of Reddit posts, and as promised, the 12 hour countdown began. + +The token was completed and ready to deploy, however rather than rush the process, Ed and MG deployed the contract on a test coin to ensure they were entirely familiar with the process before launch. The focus was launching the project once, and launching it right! + +Contract was renounced right before the launch to ensure that the development team or anyone else could not re-write the token's contract. +&nbsp; + +####30,000 Holders have chosen SafeGem as their moonshot. SafeGem is one of the few projects that has been holding well during BTC crash. The project received amazing feedback after the Tesla tweet and the marketcap doubled within minutes. The CMC/CG listings have been finalized. SafeGem is ready for the BULLRUN, currently sitting at $10m market cap and 30,000+ Holders. + +&nbsp; + +###Crypto ZEUS has just delivered an amazing review of SafeGem and announced a Twitter Giveaway!! + +&nbsp; + +[Check out Crypto ZEUS on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SLhwWMDwqU) +[Check out his Twitter Giveaway.](https://twitter.com/CryptoZeusYT/status/1395402957680562183) + +&nbsp; + +###SafeGem Finance + +&nbsp; + +SafeGem is a high yield hyper-deflationary token. The project is building a NFT-Marketplace that will authenticate precious stones by providing digital signatures. There is a huge demand in the market for this utility as validated by the B2B jewelers and precious stones dealers from Canada and US. The team has gained tremendous support from community. New logo, new website and new designers have joined the team. NFT Launchpad is in progress and + +&nbsp; + +**What's next at SafeGem?** + +- Apart from the NFT Platform, the devs have announced **SafeGem's Product Ecosystem which includes;** +- **SafeGem Crypto Education App** to educate and motivate new crypto enthusiasts where they will be able to learn basics of trading and testing real market conditions. +- **SafeGem Mobile Wallet** that will hold native tokens **$GEMS** +- **NFT Marketplace for Charity** for donations to **Human Rights Foundations** +- **SafeGem Crypto Verse:** A comic series that will cover important news from the crypto world! + +&nbsp; + +###SafeGem Protocol + +&nbsp; + +SafeGem applies 5% continuous burn and 6% token token redistribution. The burn is autonomous and reduces Total Supply of SafeGem continuously. +The token distribution is as follows: + +&nbsp; + +|Maximum Supply|Tokens Burnt|Circulating Supply| +|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:| +|100 Quad $GEMS|66 Quad $GEMS|34 Quad $GEMS| + +&nbsp; + +**There is More!!** + +&nbsp; + +- MaxTX anti dump protocol +- Multisignature marketing wallets locked for 60 days with gradual unlocking procedure +- Professional Dev team with more than 10 years of experience in blockchain, marketing, software development and operations! +- Under the Radar BSC Gem! +- High-level team engagement! +- A long term utility project! + +&nbsp; + +&nbsp; + +**SafeGem Community** + +&nbsp; + +- Website: https://safegem.finance/ +- CoinMarketCap: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/safegem-finance/ +- CoinGecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/safegem +- Stocktwits: https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GEMS.X +- Reddit: r/SafeGemFinance +- Contract: 0xdfdec49462f7d3c3b0a48e729f77a0645cdfa7c0 +- Chart: https://charts.bogged.finance/?token=0xdfdec49462f7d3c3b0a48e729f77a0645cdfa7c0 +- Medium: https://safegemfinance.medium.com/ + +&nbsp; +Hey! + +WorldBets ([t.me/WorldBetsTG](https://t.me/WorldBetsTG)) Telegram group of 100k members is getting filled with NIMIQ mentions. Nimions, unite! + +NIMIQ website > [https://www.nimiq.com/](https://www.nimiq.com/) + +NIMIQ wallet > [https://wallet.nimiq.com/](https://wallet.nimiq.com/) You can also use it to keep your BTC, ETH will soon be supported too! + +NIMIQ OASIS tech (close to be realeased, it's a partnership between NIMIQ and TEN31-WEG Bank) > [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Spp\_Be4dHaM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Spp_Be4dHaM) + +Exchanges that have NIMIQ listed > [https://www.nimiq.com/exchanges/](https://www.nimiq.com/exchanges/) + +NIMIQ whitepaper > [https://www.nimiq.com/whitepaper/](https://www.nimiq.com/whitepaper/) + +# Nimiq - The World's First Browser-Based Blockchain + +You can create a wallet in seconds, it's fast and secure, easy to use. Great tech and team behind it. You can buy it using Moonpay, Kucoin and other exchanges. + +Get yours for $0,00496382/NIM! +Back around 4 months ago, when it first became available to trade reddit moons on Honeyswap, I sold my 88,000 moons at the time for around 0.92 BTC ($9100 USD). + +I was elated at that number, since I had been dollar cost averaging nano for 3 years and made more money from shitposting than I had made from DCAing Nano (I was still in the negative with Nano at the time I sold my moons) + +See following meme for reference around the time I sold my moons for BTC. + +https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/j1j32a/tfw_you_finally_make_money_from_rcryptocurrency/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +Well, now not only has Nano skyrocketed in price, but the BTC I got from my reddit moons is now around $47,200 at a price of $51,300 USD per BTC. + +What a wild 4 months it's been since then. I wish you all good luck and a prosperous 2021 bull run. We're all gonna make it. +[Monday - Friday before 7am CST.](https://preview.redd.it/aoc6f1bugrx71.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=bdae29e07fd7d8700b75a2e6382d3a69c0befc99) + +[In the purple circle we trust.](https://preview.redd.it/q3swqgjdkrx71.jpg?width=536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=141e2b1fa92a705cbda76a3fdb2fa6554782dc68) + +&#x200B; + +GOOOOOOODDDD MORRRRRRRNING SUPERSTOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! + +I am [u/Odd-Ad-900](https://www.reddit.com/u/Odd-Ad-900/) , your seriously unhinged news anchor, and I am humbled to be here writing every day for my APE FAM. + +Can you smell that? It smells like MONEY! + +God I love this job. + +Insert the non-flaccid intro card. + +[Very non-flaccid... Today, is the 5th of November.](https://preview.redd.it/46yz6okvgrx71.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=c44041e3c15c52342d578d195f2b6b3f10c7879e) + + I want to give a BIG thanks to [u/madsmatter](https://www.reddit.com/u/madsmatter/) our professional audio chimp. Check out his hit "Stonk Cast" and smash the updoot for that silverback. + +Giving credit where credit is due to my teammates, [u/blazlyn](https://www.reddit.com/u/blazlyn/), [u/viviconsadventures](https://www.reddit.com/u/viviconsadventures/), [u/tokyorose](https://www.reddit.com/u/tokyorose/) and our very own mods [u/dismal-jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/u/dismal-jellyfish/) and [u/luma44](https://www.reddit.com/u/luma44/) You guys are the best! + +I am so FRIGGIN PUMPED to be here writing this for you APES! NEW AND OLD! If it weren't for this sub, and the migration many of us have endured since the "bets" place, I would not have had such a fantastic year! Thanks ApeFam! I will remain after MOASS to tell your stories. I am here, Standing with a fist in the air HODLING and DRS'ing with you guys! + +Now, lets change the world, TOGETHER + +Good Morning Apes. It is a brand new day! Its **FRIDAY**!... and you know what that means!!! + +Monday's are crappy days for the market, right? lol + +RRP is over $1Trillion dollars for the 56**th** day in a row... ***Yes... 56th***. + +[Insanity. I just can't even.](https://preview.redd.it/elvnatk3hrx71.png?width=326&format=png&auto=webp&s=984bb8fef67530b1cf2b87aa77cec604db5de99a) + +Its not too late. + +[You Can.](https://preview.redd.it/9vkepff5krx71.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e84991c88f6fd8eee58c7946b309280eb4133470) + +Loopring Confirmed. Listening to the Wu-Tang Album. WOAH. + +[I was not sold on the Wi-Tang idea... I am 100&#37; now.](https://preview.redd.it/yd43by3dhrx71.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2df577cccb1f6c09c0638bdbbb5d55cfbac8b7a6) + +I happily hold LRC. Lets see what it can do. + +[I love this shade](https://preview.redd.it/z77zay5ahrx71.jpg?width=514&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=099ea0c1a2a55c017a311af62c9cbc2e7f6d0a41) + +MEME game = Strong + +[I'd go see this movie.](https://preview.redd.it/bo04kuw2hrx71.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e62f4c16a62cc802d1047d0ca90f8b0a0b450ff) + +I think he was talking about today... Do you? + +[Roar DFV. Roar away.](https://preview.redd.it/9q7vs1v4hrx71.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68d7d94e5d140621380c401b91f4fcb8dc0545a1) + +&#x200B; + +u/boiseairguard *says* "**Said this in a comment and got reported to the suicide hotline. IMHO, this is checkmate".** *I agree.* + +[NFT. Cant Wait.](https://preview.redd.it/ywg38fkufrx71.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e9ad28e1e27500e71b9a58e36d6b751d30ad7405) + +This would... I mean... I'd just... I mean... I'd fall apart. + +[NFT](https://preview.redd.it/2zxajv27hrx71.jpg?width=569&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3310381098f9f66a888387b48c45a66a4c13191d) + +&#x200B; + +u/zafferous *says* **"It appears Hedgies finally got scared out of buying Puts. To the Moon and Beyond! Expect massive bull run next week from Calls expiring ITM and almost 0 Puts expiring ITM".** + +[Looks TASTY](https://preview.redd.it/5hsehuoferx71.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=48b69cdaa90807c2ba9293c228f1a57f6fe30fe7) + +AWWWWWWWWW. Poor Hedge Funds. + +[guy looks like a turtle](https://preview.redd.it/24m5vzkhhrx71.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4749456a279fa88828c444d3c14f74e4461b0476) + +&#x200B; + +From u/el_poopacabrah ... need some more tit jacking? Read this. He Knows what is going on. + +# 741, Mean Girls and MOASS... I'm as surprised as you are. + +📷[**☁ Hype/ Fluff**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%E2%98%81%20Hype%2F%20Fluff%22&restrict_sr=1) + +Partner was watching the movie Mean Girls and brought this to my attention. Towards the end of the film Lindsey Lohan's character is in a math competition. In said competition, the opposing team answers a question correctly. The answer? 741 of course! 🤣 But wait there's more! In the scenes that follow Lindsey Lohan's character wins the competition. How? By answering "The limit does not exist!" Bias confirmed 🚀 This rocket ain't stopping friends! See you amongst the stars. + +Buy, hold, DRS! + +Edit: Thanks for all the updoots and awards. I did not expect this post to get this much attention. + +FWIW, a few users have noted that DFV tweeted a clip from Mean Girls on March 24th: [https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1374756471376871428?s=20](https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1374756471376871428?s=20) + +And if that isn't tin foil hat enough for you... + +Before the final question the judge mispronounced the name of Lindsey Lohan's character Cady as "Cat-y" to which she corrects him, "It's KAY-tee" (phonetic spelling). So she is basically saying "No, I'm not a cat." 😲 + +&#x200B; + +This marks 7 property developers who have defaulted on loan payments in China in the last 2 months... Zillow will be the first in the US. + +[Another one bites the dust.](https://preview.redd.it/tqlnwyonhrx71.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a0285badc677f088fd11668d64eb9f8e41afe0b2) + +A $5 Trillion correction is coming... + +[It will send waves across the world markets.](https://preview.redd.it/3jvfqjyxgrx71.jpg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=69cc3738e6067e9b408a8d5d4a7573cbdfab9321) + +I am not toe guy to explain it... I am the guy in the picture... BUT IS SOUNDS COOL!!!! + +[V for Vendetta.](https://preview.redd.it/cqyzezpjhrx71.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=058b1342269a2d568ba2fc5754f0f654bf6518d5) + +This is not a financial advisor, and I am not financial advice. + +[It is a stupid whale meme... ](https://preview.redd.it/qcgfyfwakrx71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6316ef750f3e0de9180a000639e968bca7a7666) + +&#x200B; + +Be Excellent Everyone. + +[Excellence. No Greed.](https://preview.redd.it/zlcqiqnxgrx71.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ce1693d3dd0de067053adba9bc222c94e670621) + + **Remember. Ape no fight Ape. Be EXCELLENT**! + +Thanks for your morning poop time and reading this bullshit. + +This is not financial advice. I am a slack jawed window licker and prefer grey crayons... sideways trading baby. + +As always, thank you to the real wrinklies out there. If it weren't for you, I would have paperhanded a long time ago. + +[u/Pharago](https://www.reddit.com/u/Pharago/) (Today's The Day) + +[u/mr\_boost](https://www.reddit.com/u/mr_boost/) (Ape News Network | Sign Guy) + +[u/Parsnip](https://www.reddit.com/u/Parsnip/) (German Market Guy | Diamantenhände) + +[u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/) (Daily Technical Analysis) + +[u/DR7KE](https://www.reddit.com/u/DR7KE/) (scales Treasury Balance Guy scales) + +[u/pctracer](https://www.reddit.com/u/pctracer/) (Reverse Repo Market Updater) + +[u/JTH1](https://www.reddit.com/u/JTH1/) (Floor Guy Stonkdate) + +[u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/u/DeepFuckingValue/) (Not A Cat) + +[u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/u/atobitt/) (DD) + +[u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) (DD) + +[u/Dismal-Jellyfish](https://www.reddit.com/u/Dismal-Jellyfish/) + +[u/peruvian\_bull](https://www.reddit.com/u/peruvian_bull/) (DD addict) + +[u/yelyah2](https://www.reddit.com/u/yelyah2/) (legendary apette) + +[u/ButtFarm69](https://www.reddit.com/u/ButtFarm69/) (no introduction needed) + +[u/LeftHandedWave](https://www.reddit.com/u/LeftHandedWave/) (RRP Explainer Extraordinaire) + +[u/Chared945](https://www.reddit.com/u/Chared945/) (The Front Deskman) + +Thank You All for your Diamond Hands and Dedication to Destroying the Bad Guys. +#Thank you for all the ways you all have helped to share and advertise [WWW.DRSGME.ORG](https://DRSGME.ORG). Here are some great examples: + +[Billboards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/u8abke/dfw_billboards_for_drsgmeorg_beyond/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by [u/TheTangoFox](https://www.reddit.com/u/TheTangoFox/) [Photos here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/tzz540/uthetangofox_put_billboards_back_on_the_menu_bois/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/u34a08/saw_this_today_in_corinth_tx_cant_stop_wont_stop/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Internet/social media/sign](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/uisxge/what_are_the_redditors_on_rsuperstonk_doing_now/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by [u/BornLuckiest](https://www.reddit.com/u/BornLuckiest/) + +[Tik Tok](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/umcram/how_to_hide_market_positions_ft_total_return_swaps/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by [u/Life\_is\_good22](https://www.reddit.com/u/Life_is_good22/) + +[Stickers with template](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ues40y/here_they_are_spread_the_word_of_drs_with_these/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by [u/Proof-Carob-2255](https://www.reddit.com/u/Proof-Carob-2255/) + +[Beautiful Flag](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/uxree4/i_made_a_flag_to_advertise_drsgmeorg_bring_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by u/hisholynoodle. + +[Yard sign and business cards](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v0h0uq/yard_sign_and_1000_biz_cards_for_100/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +#Now we need your help to go viral!! WWW.DRSGME.ORG is NOW ready to extend and increase advertising: we want to reach and educate millions, not just thousands, about DRS. + +Our goal from the beginning was to **lock the float** by educating the masses outside of Reddit about DRS, thus exposing the corruption of Wall Street and likely launching MOASS. + +[My post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/uxpv8u/sharing_wwwdrsgmeorg_traffic_stats/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) from Thursday sharing website traffic stats. The site is absolutely working. We simply need more visitors and eyes on it to educate the world about DRS. Simply visiting the site directly or through a search engine will help our numbers. + +#Changing the world is what’s at stake! +Lock the float! + +🦍💕🦍 +I was looking at the S&P500 Index. Looking at this graph, it seems the economy is going straight up since the plunge in Jan 2009. Are the indices supposed to be even higher, what would a thriving economy look like? Is this index a good way to judge the overall health of the american economy, over large periods of time? (note: I am not American) +Hi, + +Bit of a stupid situation from my less than intelligent mother. I have been living by myself since moving out in 2009 after graduating High school. I went to college and got a 6 month internship in the fall of 2012. Internship was paid and paid pretty well ($18/hr). Very recently I received a letter from the Oregon Department of Health Services saying there was an over payment of SNAP benefits to my family (Case name is listed as my Mom, but letter is addressed to me). This is because during the period I was working on my internship my mother still had me on her SNAP file. + +It wasn't an honest mistake on her part, she fed me some lines about how she needed more money for the rest of my siblings (another who was 18, but not working at the time). Obviously the government was going to figure out about this considering all they had to do was correlate tax returns and other information. + +The bill says I am liable for this $3600 as well as anyone else on the case (in this case its me, my mother, my step father and my younger brother). + +My mom can pay back the $3600 herself, she has agreed to do this. I am mostly concerned about side effects from this over payment action that might affect me (or my other family members) in the future. Will this hurt my credit? Will it show up on background checks and other things? + +Was considering posting to /r/legaladvice, but my concerns are more financial than anything at the moment. + +Any advice at all would be very appreciated. + +EDIT: I contacted the DHS and let them know that I have not lived with mom during this period of time and have a hearing appointment in place. +I can’t believe there’s even a debate here. Between this and the covid controversially, I guess a big enough group of people can be so idiotic that they can just take a dumb argument and mold it to their truth. + +The Volkswagen squeeze happened when Porsche revealed they owned the majority of VW, yet the float was still trading every day. That’s the point of this. Proving the naked shorting issue to the world because take a step outside this sub and see that it isn’t believed. + +The new hot fud put out by dr ball gargler is that DRS is killing this sub… Jesus Christ people. Look at the facts, it’s very obvious whether you’re better off ‘owning’ a share through an intermediary or instead just actually owning it. +Right now the majority of brokers have essentially duplicated shares (possibly even duplicated duplicates/synthetics/IOUs). Just take a moment and think about what will happen to those brokers when it comes out that everything was mishandled and now they’re on the hook for finding and supplying real shares to shareholders. + +I have a feeling what we will see is a lot of brokers getting completely liquidated and/or going bankrupt. + +DRS you shit right. Fucking. Now. + +NFA obv +I have spent the last 2 years building up my bitcoin balance. Im not rich by any means but I worked hard and stashed as much as possible.. Im no genius when it comes to bitcoin but I understood the basics… I always saw your posts about cold storage and “not your keys not your crypto”…I got suckered in with the idea of compounding interest with Celsius and bitcoin and even my fiancé set up a Celsius account and she put about 8k into it. I have about .6 bitcoin in my Celsius account. I got a late start in bitcoin and figured this would help my trajectory and speed up my gains. I bought a ledger nano X probably two weeks ago and got it all set up and figured I would slowly start moving funds to the ledger device because I was nervous… and then yesterday happened and I am feeling sick to my stomach. I have a 6 year old daughter and everything I was doing was to put my family in a good spot financially. I’m worried that I’ll never see that bitcoin again and I’ll be wiped clean and start back at square one… needing a pick me up right about now. Thanks for listening to those that got this far. +**Are you ready game developers? NANO can now be directly integrated into your UE4 games!** + +In-game demo video below including: + +* Free NANO from a faucet +* Live rewards when killing enemies +* In-game purchases + +[Preview](https://imgur.com/a/vMYkuc3) + +[Demo video](https://youtu.be/gMtzOkaNnXc) + +[Tweet](https://twitter.com/wezrule/status/1183643964307640321?s=20) + +[Github](https://github.com/wezrule/UE4NanoPlugin) +$SPX might have hit the bottom, currently down 17% from its ATH in early January, after lowest close of the year in early October (down as much as 25%). + +TL;DR + +**Bottom indicators**: + +* Inflation looks to have peaked (look at CPI) +* Short-term interest rates also may have peaked (look at two-year Treasury yield) +* 10-year yield peaked (recently dropped to around 3.7%) + +**Risk for more volatility** as earnings have not hit bottom. But the stock market historically hits the bottom 3-6 months before earnings estimates bottom. Falling profit projections likely include falling 10-year yield would support—or even boost—earnings multiples.  + +Source: [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-bottomed-sp-500-51669155476) + +>For starters, the S&P 500 is down 17% from its all-time high of 4796 hit in early January. It was down as much as 25% to its lowest close of the year of 3577, hit in early October. One key driver was that the Federal Reserve has been ratcheting interest rates higher in order to combat high inflation by reducing economic demand. That’s even after the inflation had already begun denting consumer demand. Plus, faster-growing technology companies have seen their valuations, or their stocks’ multiples of expected earnings, take a hit partly because higher rates make future profits less valuable. Those companies are expecting a bulk of their profits to come many years in the future. +> +>The thesis that the market has already bottomed hinges on the idea that inflation looks to have already peaked. The Consumer Price Index for October gained 7.7% year over year, down from 9.1% in June. Some of that is because higher prices, themselves, have caused consumers to turn away from shopping; retail companies have too much inventory and have had to mark prices down because demand isn’t strong enough for the supply. Plus, interest rates have already risen, though higher rates have more work to do in reducing inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. +> +>That inflation has peaked could mean short-term interest rates have also peaked. The federal-funds futures market is reflecting that the pace of rate hikes will slow down, before the Fed ultimately cuts rates in 2023. The two-year Treasury yield, a barometer for expectations about the fed-funds rate, is around 4.5%, below its multiyear peak of just over 4.7%. The assumption is that inflation and demand will be somewhat curbed by that point, so there’s a visible end to the Fed’s demand destruction. That would ultimately provide relief for the stock market.  +> +>To that point, “if the economy manages to avoid recession or experiences only a modest contraction, a new bull market may already be unfolding,” wrote Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group.  +> +>A peak in short-term rates could also mean the 10-year yield, a key component to stock-market forecasts, has also peaked. Higher short-term rates have played a role in pushing the 10-year yield higher this year, but recently, the 10-year yield has dropped to around 3.7% from a multiyear peak of just over 4.2%. That’s partially because higher short-term rates should ultimately reduce demand and long-term inflation, lowering the yield on the long-dated bond. That’s key for stocks because a lower yield on 10-year government debt increases the value of future profits, boosting equity valuations. +> +>All of these indicators, though, do point to weakening economic demand. Earnings forecasts might have to decline in the next few quarters. Wall Street hasn’t cut earnings estimates for 2023 as much as they have historically by the end of a calendar year. And this isn’t a normal year; earnings pressure could be worse, given the risk of a recession.  +> +>But the stock market would likely resume rising before actual earnings results hit bottom. The stock market historically tends to hit bottom three to six months before earnings estimates bottom, according to RBC data. To be sure, if profit forecast drop enough, stocks would find a new bottom. But if earnings expectations drop even by 11% from here, and the S&P 500 doesn’t fall as much, the index would remain above its low for the year.  +> +>Plus, an environment with profit projections falling likely includes falling bond yields. If company earnings—and stocks—are declining, then investors could rush into safe 10-year government bonds, the interest payments of which are guaranteed. That would bring the 10-year bond’s price up, and yield down. The yield is attractive anyway, as it’s well above average annual inflation expectations for the next decade of 2.31%. In this scenario, a falling 10-year yield would support—or even boost—earnings multiples even while earnings projections are dropping.  +> +>If it sounds like stock market volatility is in store overall, that’s because it is. The S&P 500 could even revisit its low for the year.  +[Economists Said A Trump Presidency Would Be A Disaster. So Why Isn't Wall Street Worried?](http://www.vox.com/new-money/2016/11/10/13575342/president-trump-disaster-wall-street) +It's roughly about 1 year later and prices for RE atleast in the US have kept increasing even faster last year. Supposedly the average increase in listing in 2021 was 22.3% in my locality, which I believe might be the fastest annual increase ever. + + Just wanted to check in on the community and see if anyone pulled the trigger and cashed out the equity in their primary residence or rental. If you did, what was your next step? Move to LCOL and/or rent? + +As for me, I did nothing but definitely feel like the RE party is about to end. + +Original post: [**https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/llacl2/have\_soaring\_real\_estate\_prices\_changed\_your\_fire/**](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/llacl2/have_soaring_real_estate_prices_changed_your_fire/) +Long time user, but I'm using a new throwaway because I'm paranoid. + +Partially this post is just because I need to tell someone, and no one knows other than my wife. + +The other reason is that I want remind people that this is a marathon, but that you can do it with dedication. + +Aug 2016 will be 19yrs since I left home with a beat up Honda Civic, some clothes, and $1,027 in my bank account. + +Today, I did a net worth calculation, and I have $1,042,011 in total assets. + +Cash $31,129 3% + +Emergency $49,953 5% + +Long Term Sav $50,745 5% + +Brokerage $229,656 22% + +Retirement $412,527 40% + +Home Equity $268,000 26% + + **$1,042,011** + +It has not been easy, but at the same time, I have not been living on ram-men for 19yrs. I do drive a 9yr old pick up truck, but I live in a bigish nice house with a wife and 2 kids. I've been able to travel, and splurge here and there while generally staying on track. + +The first year was the hardest. Each year has gotten easier. + +I'll need to slow down some of my savings shortly to divert more funds to the kids 529 accounts to start maxing them out, but it will not stop the growth. + +I do know that I am too cash heavy at the moment. I'm working through some portfolio allocation decisions and there is some job risk for me at the moment, so it is temporarily the right thing to do, but I do need to sit down and plan. + +The home equity is the zillow estimate minus the loan balance, I know there would be closing costs and the estimate could be off... but the $42K I'm over the line feels like enough to call it real for me (that is why the "kind of" in the title) + +So I guess AMA... hopefully this came off as more helpful/positive than it did bragging. + +All I see from this sub are shit chucking apes who are posting “can eth get to 10K, can btc get to 100k” and with dumbasses replying with stupid answers. God forbid you be a little realistic and get downvoted to hell. I guess you won’t succeed much investing in crypto with that mindset. On that note, I would like to end with a have a nice day and go fk yourself, especially those idiots out of touch with the reality. Btc will NOT go to 100k this year, and eth will sure as shit not go to 10k this year, so eat a bag of dicks with that misinformation + +Edit: I was right, it didn’t even reach 5k. All you shit chucking apes can go fuck yourselves, you small pp having dumb dog-cunt bastards of mallard duck shite. Suck a dick and fuck your mom too. Shove this hopium up where it don’t shine and stay in your moma basement with this bullshit thinking. And I hope your dog dies too , fuck you 🖕🏼 +i like how ppl are trying to farm donuts and karma with increasingly populist nonsense that has absolutely shit fuck to do with ETH + +to name a few examples Ive seen posts about social media, LRC, even AOC and political debates. + +do you ppl need reminding this sub is called ETHTRADER? if it aint got anything to do with ETH pls keep it off here. + +to quote the sub description "Here you can discuss Ethereum news, memes, investing, trading, miscellaneous market-related subjects" +u/Deepfuckingvalue's calls expire on friday and he made a poll about how he should exercise them + +He gave us 3 options: + +Exercise none: Stupid and worthless move + +Exercise some: an alright move however considering it's $12 for a stock trading at 158 rn, i don't see the reason to use this + +Then we have the third option: exercise all. + +This move would be extremely bullish as it would allow him to buy 50.000 shares for $600.000 (12 dollars a share!) + +And that got me thinking. + +If he does that, then he would have 150.000 shares. +But have you guys noticed he also has almost 12million in his investment account just sitting there as of april 1. + +What i think will happen is that on friday, no matter if the squeeze happens there or not. + +He's gonna not only buy(might have done it already) 50.000 shares for 7million and exercised his calls for 600.000 bringing him to 200.000 shares + +If thats not the most bullish diamondhanded power move, then i don't know what is + +We could see a giant rally of doubters fomo'ing + +Hopefully, their paper hands will turn diamond + +Obligatory Gamestop to the moon +This is not financial advice +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +🖍️🖍️🖍️🖍️ +🍌🍌🍌 + +Edit: Fucking called it. +&#x200B; + +[I adjusted some numbers from my previous update to make it EXTRA conservative. PT is $0.60-$1 in the short-term. If you want to play by current market valuations and rocket ships, a $5-10 PT by EOY\/2022 wouldn't be crazy.](https://preview.redd.it/ip19bseulnf61.jpg?width=3000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=922271f7dbd9ed4a0843911582db98719c7fba59) + +There's so much on this company/conglomerate that I keep finding so I keep putting more sh\*t together to share. 🧐 And I want to note this: I keep seeing YouTube gurus touting ASTI and SIRC but I would pick SNPW over them any day of the week. I wonder when they will start catching on to this one. 🤌 + +I have a small position in ASTI because I like the potential of their flexible panels, but I'm aware that they are delinquent on their SEC reporting, as of 2019 were hella deep in debt, and have a black hole of over 18 billion outstanding shares – compared to SNPW's fully audited and fully SEC reporting status and 966M outstanding shares. SIRC has a small amount of outstanding shares (less than 140M) and a low float, but they're operating at 4x the loss of SNPW, have unaudited financials, and they're a roofing company that installs *other brands*' solar panels in just one region – San Diego. It's small potatoes and I'd rather invest in the companies who make the solar panels and own the patents (SPWR, SNPW, and even ASTI) and have worldwide reach. + +Regardless, this is going to be a great year and beyond for all solar and clean energy plays. I'm excited for all of it, really. + +[I feel like this guy.](https://preview.redd.it/j8cylht5mnf61.jpg?width=805&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc0b0df31d455dd5732e4d737bd02ba00dd06b41) + +I'll probably be occupied with SNPW for another couple weeks, and after that I'll be digging into other OTCs I have my eye on. So you can expect the same disgustingly long posts about other OTCs in the future. +I'm moving out of home for the first time and I have a tight budget. I was wondering how much everyone pays for their eneregy, gas and internet providers and if anyone had any suggestions or warnings. Thanks! +Why are they looking to raise capital? And is this related to some short positions earlier this year? And who is going to bail them to avoid markets melt down? Too many questions and the news are not doing this event justice, which makes it feel like 2008 but in a European fashion. +There's so much information out there that it's hard to get a good firm grasp on the general health of the market. How does one go about keeping a finger on the pulse of the market? Global news, company news, tech analysis? What's the best way to pursue a better basic understanding of where the market stands on any given day? +I have been corresponding with UPS for at least the last 3 months, sending frequent emails, phone calls, etc. +I moved, and had my things shipped to be delivered to my new address. There were 2 separate shipments and I was charged approximately $250 each. I wrote fragile on all of the boxes. + +Nearly everything of mine got destroyed, and one of the shipments never even got delivered. I have tried everything to get a refund but this company has an endless loop that makes the process absolutely impossible. + +My frustration started long before the refund process. One shipment got stuck at customs, was held for weeks, and was returned to the UPS store. I found out after calling several times over several weeks (the first ~5 calls had people assuring me that everything was fine and I should just be patient). Nobody notified me. When it was returned, the UPS store then refused to ship it out again because the box was in terrible condition and glass pieces were falling out of it. They took pictures and I had to instruct them, through email, which of my important possessions (art work, frames of family pictures etc) to throw away and to keep. They repackaged it and sent it. It barely got delivered, and when it did, it did not come to my door. It came to some UPS location where I had to wait for hours because it arrived more than 1 hour after the store closed (so I could not even leave and come back). There were 4 other people waiting at that same location for items that were "guaranteed" to be delivered but hadn't arrived. Two of the peoples things were already being shipped back to the sender, despite the fact that they had emails indicating their shipments had arrived and this was the exact time and date that they were meant to show up. These people were pissed off because they were leaving the following day and were depending on this "guaranteed" delivery. The guy at the front desk told me this happens every night, and his job is to hear people yell at him and cry when he tells them the notification on their phone is wrong. Luckily mine ended up arriving. + +My other shipment came to my city for three days but never managed to get dropped off. Every single day, I called UPS, I made an account and filled out forms saying they could leave the box without a signature etc, stayed home from work, did everything humanely possible. Every day UPS promised me it would be delivered but I never even saw any attempt at delivery. On the third day I got the notification that my package was being returned. It was returned to my dad, who found everything in the box completely broken. I checked lately, and to make matters even more complicated, they marked it as delivered in their system. + +I took so many pictures of all the damage and had my dad take pictures too. I emailed for several weeks with one customer service agent who got me connected with their refund email (after the damage claim was automatically rejected and he managed to overturn that) where I was to submit pictures for evaluation. I submitted them many times, but each time I would get an email indicating that the file sizes were too big, I included too many pictures, too few pictures, or some obscure problem meant they were not able to be accepted. I finally gave up when they said I needed to submit the pictures only for each individual tracking number. This is impossible for me to do, as after the UPS store resent all of my broken things, they sent it under two separate tracking numbers, but since they arrived at the same time I have no idea which is which. Also, the packages are both CLEARLY damaged so anyone with half a brain should be able to look at any of the pictures and recognize I deserve a refund for the entire shipment, regardless of tracking number. + +I have called UPS 100 times over the last three months. Every time they listen to my story, they sympathize, they tell me we will get to the bottom of it, and then they go silent. There is no follow-through. I have lost track of the number of times I was promised a phone call or email that never went through. This is the worst process and worst experience I have ever had with a company. + +How do I get my money back? Not only did they fail to deliver half my stuff, but they damaged or destroyed almost all of it. I am not even trying to be refunded for the broken possessions, which are invaluable anyways (I don't know how UPS would assign dollar values to my artwork or irreplaceable family photos that were scraped with glass). I just want my money back because they completely failed to do the job I paid them to do. I have heard that I can file a complaint through the credit card company, but my card has a 60 day limit and like I said, it has now been over 3 months since I made the payment. Any help would be greatly appreciated! +Title is pretty explanatory but something I am currently trying to best figure out. Combined my wife and I have a total of approximately 73k in loans. I am 30 shes 27. I know this money could wipe our student loan debt clean but I also am tempted to use it to start a nest egg for our family (low cost index fund). + +* Our rent is $1265 per month - which is cheap for our area. Been there for 5 years went from 1175 to 1265. +* Car payment is $350 - Lease +* Gladly answer any other questions that are needed to make an assessment. +* Student loan rates vary from 5.31 to 6.21; the largest balance (17k) is 5.84 +* Additional info I saw a few people ask ( doubt it will make a difference in the answer): +* My salary is 90k, my wife's is 45k, we live in North NJ, which is expensive and heavily taxed. +* No credit card debt, some $ in retirement accounts and a mutual fund but nothing close to 75k. +* Current monthly loan payments combined with my wife are around 500-700; I change the amounts if we have some extra money during a pay period. +* Settlement is tax free. +* EDIT ... Well you guys convinced me...I am going to use the money to pay them off! + + +Damn did I pick a bad time to get into the game? Ive done business development for a variety of startups in Silicon Valley so I know the landscape pretty well and can make a damn good case for all my investments (hence why it’s so tech-centric), but they’ve been getting plummeted day after day since I started so I’m starting to feel some trepidation. + +Split evenly between: +FB +ADBE +V +MSFT +BABA +NVDA + +And about 5% in BOTZ + + +Thoughts? I’m literally hemorrhaging money + +EDIT: 10% now. I wanna die +For two weeks of time, I have seen so much shady stuff going on that kept pumping my motivation to hold on to my precious GME. **🤲💎** + +Now with the cheat sheets published by Finra, there is no doubt that the squeeze is inevitable. + +Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice! I am just a retard who likes bananas and crayons. + +Mandatory emojis to stimulate my fellow retards: **🚀🚀🌝🌝** <-- See you there! + +EDIT: Thank you for the humble awards my fellow retards. Use it to buy more GME instead you Apes. +I'm 53 and last year I decided to retire in Vietnam. Plan on getting married to a local girl in the next year. She has a good job, owns her apartment and has a business on the side so she is financially stable. + +I'm Canadian but spent most of my career working in Australia. + +What I have: + +- 50% in Australian superannuation that I cannot access until I'm 60. 70% Australian equities, 20% bonds, 10% cash +- 10% in Colonial First State Australian equity funds outside of superannuation. +- 10% in Canada. 10% vanguard Canadian equities, 10% vanguard US equities, 80% vanguard fixed interest +- 20% in Vietnam corporate bonds @9% +- 5% in Vietnam stock market just for fun +- 5% in Vietnam cash deposits @5%. This is about 3 years living expenses + +Capital preservation is my main worry. The October to December run last year hit my Australian equities pretty hard. Most of that is locked in for the next 7 years so I'm confident things will recover by then. + +I'm exposed to Vietnam inflation/exchange rate. The state bank seems committed to 4% inflation but interest rates here are climbing. We are coming from double digit inflation not that long ago. Australian exchange rate is my most exposure right now. + +What would you do differently? + +Any other risks that I am exposed to and how would you hedge? + +Anything I need to know about investing in Vietnam? I can't own property here but my girl can which would be another risk to have it in her name. + +TIA + +Edit: thanks for the genuine concern about moving to Vietnam and marrying a local girl. That part of this plan that I am confident in. + +It's the money part I would like advice on. My target is an income of 3% above inflation while preserving capital. +Like Argentina and Turkey. Yes I’m in one of them that located near Europe and Middle East. + +My portfolio is: + +%35 Stocks +%30 US dollar on interest (%4.5 net) +%10 US Stocks ETF +%25 Lira(Interest or bonds) + +Most of the people around me are crazy about gold. And I remember “gold is not investment” quotes from one of Buffet articles or books. + +How your portfolio would look like If you were in Argentina or Turkey nowadays ? Especially to gain against high inflation. +Let me preface this by saying I'm not a father and I don't plan on becoming one. I've heard a lot of people in this community talk about how they don't believe in an inheritance for their children. This confuses me because the whole point of FI in my understanding is being able to live comfortably without worrying about working for the sake of working, and being able to pursue what you are passionate about. If this is what you believe is important in life why wouldn't you want to be able to pass that on to your children? Based on my understanding of the 4% rule, that money should stay at about the same level throughout your retirement meaning your kids could inherit your FI number or a little less. They could choose to work longer if they want a higher class lifestlye than you lived or they could use that money for it's intent and live a fulfilled life. As long as you raise them to respect money and not live extravagantly, what are the downsides of providing FI to your kid after you pass? Am I missing something? +***This is not a financial advice.*** + +>Hello Reddit Folks, +> +>It is me again, trying to learn fundamentals and stock analysis. Thanks to everyone that replyied and gave me advices last time. I will be quick with introductions. +> +>[Here](https://we.tl/t-GsEKQyPULM) a link to download the pdf of my thesis on Intel Corporation, you will find also the excel on which i did my calculations too. +> +>Have a nice reading session! + +# Table of Contents + +1. **Introduction** +2. **Methodology** +3. **Main Competitors** +4. **The Products** +5. **Fab Locations** +6. **SWOT Analysis** +7. **Financial** +8. **Valuation indicators** +9. **CEO & Management** +10. **Institutional Ownership** +11. **Insider Ownership** +12. **Revenue Forecast** +13. **Analysts price target** +14. **Social sentiment** +15. **Intel vs AMD - Evaluation Comparison** +16. **Final Considerations** + +Note: some session might not be avaible here on Reddit, please feel free to read the complete report [here](https://we.tl/t-GsEKQyPULM). + +# Introduction + +## Background + +Intel used to be a giant in the microchip and semiconductor sector, but recently it found itself eclipsed by its competitor in matters of quality, strategic development and public perception. Those changes are due to its recent management team, which stagnated the company and slowed it with bad management decisions. With the new CEO Pat Gelsinger and his expertise, direct experience and know-how in the sector, the company is moving out from its slowdown and trying to catch up with its main rivals. + +## Purpose + +The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the development of Intel Corporation (INTC) during the past four years, from 2018 to 2021 and forecast its activity for the next five years. Not only are the financial statements taken into consideration but also macroeconomics factors and its main competitor Advanced Micro Device (AMD). + +All is made to answer the following questions: + +* What is its position compared to competitors? +* Is the company a Buy or a Sell? + +## Hypothesis + +* INTC is not a dying company +* INTC downtrend is following the sector and the market movement +* INTC is a cyclical business, and we are in a down cycle +* INTC investments will boost its revenues in the next five years +* USA government will not allow one of its pivotal and strategic company to fail +* INTC will face more stress as AMD is eating market share +* INTC’s new products are the top-notch of the sector + +# Methodology + +When the authors initially wrote this thesis, the intention was not to take the position of an expert in company valuation. Instead, their aim was to investigate the development of a company based upon information and knowledge obtained from previous education and studies. Moreover, the underlying company for this valuation is Intel Corporation, since the authors aim to analyse a well reputable company with a strong market brand in a highly competitive market. + +## Secondary Data + +Secondary data is the information that doesn’t require a direct collection or studies, this information is publicly available online for the public to be consulted. Meanwhile, primary data are information that has to be collected by direct means such as interviews, measurements or polls. In this paper, only secondary data and data derived from it are used. Following the main data related to the company that are mainly used for the evaluation models: + +|Data|Number| +|:-|:-| +|**Levered Beta**|**0.71**| +|**Unlevered Beta**|**0.54**| +|**CAPM**|**7.01%**| +|**WACC**|**6.45%**| +|Hurdle Rate|11.64%| +|**ROE**|**25.50%**| +|**EPS**|**4.66**| +|**P/E**|**5.65**| +|**PEG ratio**|**4.43**| +|Corp Tax|8.46%| +|**Growth Rate Estimate**|**18.26%**| +|Analyst growth estimate|\-0.16%| +|Next 5y Analysts growth|12.80%| +|Intel’s Corporate Bonds|4.77%| +|Outstanding Shares|4,106,000,000| +|Earnings distributed|28.41%| +|Earnings retained|71.59%| + +# Macro Economic Data + +|Data|Number| +|:-|:-| +|Market Expected Return|9.40%| +|Risk Free Rate|4.21%| +|Risk Premium|5.19%| +|AAA Bond Yield|5.31%| +|Average US GDP Growth|3.18%| +|Current Market P/E|18.58| + +# Evaluation Methods + +In this paper, five evaluation methods are used to evaluate the company's final fair value. Each method gives us different current fair values for a single share of the company. The final price tag is determined by the average price between all the methods used. + +## Growth Rate + +**The Growth Rate of 18.26%** is calculated taking in count the previous year earnings of 19.86 Billion, the retained percentage of the earnings that were not distributed of 71.59% and its historical ROE calculated by the average ROE of the last 4 years of 25.50%. + +## Free Cash Flow Evaluation Model + +This simple model takes in mind the company 2021 Free Cash Flow of 30 billion, its WACC based discounted rate of 6.45% and its Growth Rate of 18.26% to determine a fair value of **$23.57** per share. + +## Adjusted Graham Fair Value Formula + +This model is used in the Value Investing communities to price tag a company based on its intrinsic value. This formula is created by Benjamin Graham, a value investor and professor at Columbia University who is considered the father of Value Investing. + +**Intrinsic value = EPS × \[(8.5 + (2 × Expected annual growth rate, g)\]** + +Which 8.5 is the P/E base of a no-growth company, and the expected growth rate is the company perpetual growth rate for the future. + +In 1974, in the revised edition of **The Intelligent Investor**, Graham revised the formula to + +**Intrinsic value = \[EPS × (8.5 + 2\*g) × 4.4\]/Y** + +In this formula, 4.4 is the then prevailing (1962) rate on high-grade corporate bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Y is the current yield on AAA-rated corporate bonds. + +Graham thought that as the investor had the choice between putting money in common stocks or bonds, it was appropriate to take into account the rate of interest paid on a high-grade bond of 4.4 per cent in determining the intrinsic value of a stock. + +In this thesis we use an adjusted formula + +**Intrinsic value = \[EPS × (7 + 1\*g) × 4.4\]/Y** + +The P/E of 7 is used because even if a company has zero growth prospects, but it is able to maintain cash flows and distribute dividends, its P/E is generally higher than 8.5. + +The used growth rate is the one calculated. + +The '2' multiplier is too aggressive. Graham never experienced companies with growth rates of 15-25 per cent, which is common today. Instead of '2', here it is used 1 instead. + +The interest rate of 4.4 is left as the original, some modern adjustment put this value at 8.5, which is the five-year fixed deposit rate. This value is the substitute of the risk-free rate, which sometimes can be used instead of 4.4. + +Data used for the calculation: + +|EPS|4.66| +|:-|:-| +|Growth Rate|18.26| +|AAA Bond Yield|5.31| + +The Adjusted Graham Intrinsic Value Formula gives us a price tag of **$97.53** + +&#x200B; + +## Discounted Unlevered Free Cash Flow Model + +A modified version of the traditional Discounted Cash Flow. This model instead of using the free cash flow, uses the unlevered one. + +Unlevered free cash flow (UFCF, also known as Free cash Flow to the Firm) is **the amount of available cash a firm has before accounting for its financial obligations**. Free cash flow (FCF), on the other hand, is the money a company has left over after paying its operating expenses and capital expenditures. It is used to remove the impact of capital structure on a firm's value and to make companies more comparable + +In simple words. It is the cash flow of a company based on the belief that the company owes no debt, therefore has no interest payments to make. + +In this model, it is taken in mind the following data: + +|WACC based discount rate|6.45%| +|:-|:-| +|Growth rate|18.26%| +|Average US GDP growth rate|3.18%| +|rage Shares outstanding|4,106,000,000| + +## Dividend Discount Model + +The dividend discount model (DDM) is a quantitative method used for predicting the price of a company's stock based on the theory that its present-day price is worth the sum of all of its future dividend payments when discounted back to their present value. + +The model gives a negative number when companies have a lower rate of return compared to the dividend growth rate. This may happen when a company continues to pay dividends even if it is incurring a loss or relatively lower earnings, as per Intel Case. This makes this model not good to be used alone when evaluating a business. + +Knowing this, the model is still used here, mainly because the final price tag is determined by the average of all the methods. This choice is made by the necessity of conservative estimates and cautious predictions. The discounted rating used here is the CAPM of 7.01%. + +The model gives the following result: + +|Fair Value, taking in count a perpetual growth rate. Here we used the company growth rate of 18.26% and not the average growth rate of the dividends. This is due to the fact that the price given by the dividend growth is considered to be unrealistic for the next five years.|$-15.36| +|:-|:-| +|Fair Value assuming a zero growth in the dividends' growth. This price is not used to determine the final value due to the fact that the company has historically paid dividends with constant growth, and it is predicted to not stop this trend.|$24.62| + +&#x200B; + +## Total Payout Model + +It is a variation of the DDF that takes in count shares repurchases. With 5.64 Billion paid in dividend in 2021, discount rate of 7.01% (CAPM) and growth rate of 18.26%, this model gives us a price tag of -**$12.22** + +## Final Fair Value + +The Final price tag is determined as per following: + +|Free Cash Flow Evaluation Model|$23.57| +|:-|:-| +|Adjusted Graham Fair Value Formula|$97.53| +|Discounted Unleveread Free Cash Flow Model|$56.67| +|Dividend Discount Model|$-15.36| +|Total Payout Model|\-$12.22| +|**Final Fair Price (Average)**|**$30.04**| + +&#x200B; + +# Main Competitors + +Intel Corporation is in the Semiconductor’s sector. + +As the only leading-edge U.S. semiconductor company that **both develops and manufactures its own technology**, Intel has a widespread economic impact in every sector of the U.S. economy and a strategic advantage over its competitors. It is also the largest publicly traded semiconductor chipmaker in the United States. + +The company is responsible for creating the x86 microprocessor, which is a part of nearly all personal computers today. + +Despite being a leader in its market, Intel operates in an area that has many players that compete for market share. Below are some of Intel's main competitors. + +|AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, like Intel, produces more than just microprocessors. Both companies create motherboards, servers, and other computer-related hardware. In terms of the x86 microprocessor, **AMD is Intel's biggest competitor.** Intel and AMD are rivals, much like Apple and Microsoft. They have certain specifications and dedicated users that will always stick to one over the other. Products from both companies are similar in price and quality. Though Intel's chips are primarily found in the computers of large companies, the competition between Intel and AMD comes down to individuals that build their own computers.| +|:-| +|IBM - International Business Machines is one of the first computer companies in the world, Founded in 1911, it was the pioneer in computer technology during the 20th century. The company developed the ATM, the hard disk, the floppy disk, the magnetic stripe, and many more. It is one of the 30 companies on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and one of the largest employers in the world. IBM used to produce computers using Intel's processors, but has since sold off that business and is now **selling its own servers and mainframes using its own processors, putting itself directly in competition with Intel.** The company launched a program to open source much of its architecture and firmware back in 2013, which attracted many new customers to using its Central Processing Units, stealing market share from Intel.| +|NVIDIA - NVIDIA is one of the key players in the graphics processing unit (GPU) market. It is one of the **biggest names in video games**. It also designs **chips for mobile phones and automobiles**. Many of its chips are used in supercomputers, and it is now working on artificial intelligence. Intel released a new graphics card in the second half of 2021 that is competing directly with Nvidia's dominance in that field. It is used to compete in areas of data centre, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.| +|Samsung - In 2018, it surpassed Intel as the largest semiconductor maker by revenue, but in 2019, Intel took that spot back. It's clear that both companies strive against one another for the top spot. Intel and Samsung don't compete in all fields, however. **Intel's products primarily focus on desktops and laptops, whereas Samsung focuses on semiconductors for smartphones and data centres.**| + +# The Products + +|**CGC – Client Computing Group** includes products designed for end-user form factors, focusing on higher growth segments of 2-in-1, thin and-light, commercial and gaming, and growing other products such as connectivity and graphics| +|:-| +|**NEX – Network and Edge Group** includes programmable platforms and high-performance connectivity and compute solutions designed for market segments such as cloud networking, communications networks, retail, industrial, healthcare, and vision.| +|**DCAI – Datacenter and AI Group** includes a broad portfolio of CPUs, domain specific accelerators, FPGAs and memory, designed to empower datacenter and hyperscale solutions for diverse computing needs| +|**AXG – Accelerated Computing System Graphics Group** includes CPUs for high performance computing (HPC) and GPUs targeted for a range of workloads and platforms from gaming and content creation to HPC and AI in the data centre| +|**IFS – Intel Foundry Services** is a services provider offering a combination of leading-edge packaging and process technology, world-class differentiated internal IPs (i.e.: x86, graphics, AI), broad 3rd party ecosystem and silicon design support.| +|**Mobileye** includes the development and deployment of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies and solutions.| + +# SWOT Analysis + +## Strengths + +* **Strong Industry position**: it has a strong market share in its major business segment. The main product is not easily copied. +* **Economies of scale**: the microprocessor market i very large and Intel has a strong manufacturing plants +* **Strong Research**: Intel’s research team is highly professional, and made some breakthrough tech that cannot be copied by other manufacturers +* **Strong partnership with Microsoft**: this partnership limits the market share growth of competitors +* **Trustworthy raw material suppliers**: it has a solid base of reliable raw material suppliers +* **Strong High-Tech culture**: its products are cutting edge innovations not easy to copy +* **High Level of customer satisfaction**: It has a dedicated customer relation department that allows it to have a high level of customer satisfaction and brand recognition +* **Strong Distribution Network**: It has developed a dependable distribution network that can reach the majority of its potential market +* **High Free Cash Flow**: It has strong Free Cash Flow, which allows it to grow into new initiative and reinvest in the company +* **Brand Recognition**: It has a strong brand recognition, positive perception of its products +* **Social Media**: Intel invests in Social Media channel to reach its customers + +## Weaknesses + +* **High costs of goods**: It has high fixed costs which adversary affects profit margins +* **High level of debt**: It has a lot of debt, which increases the interest costs on funds borrowed to finance activities. +* **Declining PC sales**: the PC market is shrinking due to post Covid open up and cycle of the business +* **High Dependency on the Main Segment**: Intel has a strong dependency on PC sales +* **Limited Business Diversification**: Intel is facing challenges in diversifying. It is trying to enter the mobile phone, tablet and TV segments. +* **Limited Customer Care in Developing Countries**: the company’s customer care is less active in developing countries, missing new potential customers +* **Weak R&D**: the company research and development division as a small investment compared to its revenue + +## Opportunities + +* **High Growth**: its products are expected to be in high demand in the next growth cycle +* **Increase in Demand:** expected increase in demands for personal computers and servers +* **Automatic Cars**: this market requires high-tech processors +* **Drones**: their usage is growing year after year and is a great opportunity for Intel +* **Developing Countries**: are expected to grow and are an opportunity to acquire new customers and partners +* **Defence sector:** institutional contractors might demand Intel high-tech processors for strategic tech and services + +## Treats + +* **Competition**: Intel is a leading leader in its industry and is facing high pressure from competitors such as: AMD, NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Samsung +* **Competitors’ New product launches**:Competitors products are threatening Intel leadership +* **Price sensitivity**: semiconductor market is a highly price sensitive market and cheaper products from competitors might drastically eat away Intel’s market share +* **Fluctuating PC sales**: Intel is too dependent on this segment +* **Harmful regulations**: the company is facing harmful regulations from countries that are trying to erode the sale of Intel’s products +* **Geopolitical Events**: Semiconductors is a strategic industry for many countries and international political events might impact the company +* **Reliance on third party manufacturers**: Intel and Manufacturers are highly dependent from each others + +# Financials + +## Income Statement + +In the past three years the average increase in revenue has gone up by 0.10% showing a stagnation of sales with the growth from 2020 to 2021 being 0.47%. While having an average increase in operating expense of 2.14% with the last year increase, from 2020 to 2021, of 10.12% showing a spike in costs for the last operating period. + +It is expected for the year 2022 to have both Costs and Revenue increase by approximately 18% + +A point of some concern might be the small decrease in net revenue in those past 4 years, confirming a stagnation of the business. + +## Balance Sheet + +The 2021 balance sheet shows us + +* Short term debt of 4.59 Billion coverable by cash and cash equivalents plus account receivables, but not only by C&C alone +* Long term debt is coverable by current assets alone +* Increased stockholders equity, earnings are being retained in the company and reinvested + +## Cash Flows + +Intel has positive Cash Flow from Operations in the last four years. Same thing for Net Cash Flow. A reduction of both can be observed for the last year. + +The Company has an Income Quality ratio of 1.51, which is good and signals a healthy income. + +INTC is investing heavily in PP&E + +&#x200B; + +TO SEE RATIOS ETC LOOK AT THE PDF [HERE](https://we.tl/t-GsEKQyPULM) + +# Revenue Forecast + +With the release of the new Intel Arc 7, with has the potential and capability to rival and surpass its competitors, NVIDIA and AMD, and a increase in demand for the year 2023, it is forecasted a growth in revenue according to the growth rate calculated of 18.26% + +## Analysts Price Target + +**$52 High** + +**$34 Average** + +**$18 Low** + +**$30 Author’s** + +TO SEE OTHER PARTS CHECK OUT THE PDF REPORT [HERE](https://we.tl/t-GsEKQyPULM), I CAN UPLOAD PICS THAT IS WHY IT IS BETTER TO READ IT FROM THE MAIN PAPER + +# Final Considerations + +## What is its position compared to competitors? + +By observing the industry and taking in count different factors such as geopolitical and market demands for electronics, we can forecast a possible development for Intel. + +INTC has a strong customer base and it is known worldwide for its contributions and development of cutting hedge technologies, this is well resonated especially in developing countries such as India, China, Nigeria and Indonesia. + +While its North American market share in Graphics and Motherboards got eroded by some percentage by its main competitor AMD, it still maintain a leadership position in the sector. We shall note that Intel operates in sectors which permit it to diversify a little bit its product’s portfolio, where AMD doesn’t have expertise nor is capable to compete. + +With high inflation and interest rate corroding the whole market, it is expected to meet some possible downturn for the near period of time (3 to 6 months) and stabilise within a year while the FED is fighting the raising of costs. The company has strong fundamentals that shields it from possible adverse events in the near future and its cash flow quality is high. + +Intel Corporation is currently undervalued due to North American Market downtrend perception of it due to the rival’s marketing attacks. It is also reasonable that the past CEO brought the company into stagnation and slowdown, but with the new one, with his expertise and experience, we can expect a turnaround and regain of some market share in the next few years. + +With US Government subsidies for the semiconductor industry, we can see a deep strategic interest in bringing and boosting domestic productions and reducing potential risk from over relying on taiwanese manufacturers. This incentivised Intel to invest in two new fabs, one in Ohio and one in Arizona, plans to expand existing plants are already funded and another European production site is planned in Germany. + +SWOT analysis shows us many strong moats for the business, which are its competitive advantages over competitors. Huge potentials can be exploited if the company decided to pursue an expansion strategy into developing countries and markets. + +Lack of insiders sell, which the last one in february 2022, shows us that the management is confident in the company's future development, which is confirmed by additional buying from the CEO itself in the last months. Big Institutions and Mutual Funds hold portions of the company too, signalling strong sentimento towards the company. Employees rating and satisfaction rate is high, salaries aren't that much different from rivals. + +## Is the company a Buy or a Sell? + +The company is distributing regular dividends, it has strong fundamentals and lots of cash to meet adverse events. Institutions and insiders are holding. The current downtrend is due to market trend and social mechanism, of which contributed AMD marketing in damaging Intel’s perception in the CPU segment. + +Fundamentally though, the company has many potentials and growth opportunities, especially now with its new release Intel Arc 7. + +Intel is a smart investment for long term holders, not only because its intrinsic value is expected to grow, but also for the fact that it pays high dividend’s yield. If the company was in a severe situation, it still can retain earnings to cover expenses, even if it is unlikely due to its present liquidity. + +In the end, the verdict is one: **Buy. Fair Value is $30.** + +**What are you thoughts? Is Intel a Buy or a Sell? Let us all know!** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +***This is not a financial advice.*** + [https://mkr.tools/cdp/3228](https://mkr.tools/cdp/3228) + +&#x200B; + +\- 6,912,500 DAI issued +\- 72,286 PETH (pooled ETH) is the collateral +\- liquidation price is at $139.20 +\- until 3 days ago, he has been "LOCK"ing more PETH +\- recently, he has been "WIPE"ing his outstanding DAI + +&#x200B; + +observation: until 3 days ago, he has been confidently adding more ETH as collateral. it seems that he has run out of ETH and can no longer add collateral, so he is now reducing his DAI issued. + +&#x200B; + +so basically, he has no more firepower to buy/secure more ETH to defend his CDP and is winding down his DAI debt as the price of ETH continues to fall since it's the only thing that he can do. + +&#x200B; + +interesting to note, the price of DAI has been remarkably price stable at \~$1. + +&#x200B; + +however, my issue with the MakerDAO system has never been about price stability, but scalability of supply to meet the demand of stablecoins. evidently the demand of stablecoins are in the trillions (as demonstrated by Tether), yet MakerDAO would be having to lock up a significant portion of ETH (already 1% i believe) to have DAI supply anywhere near those levels. + +&#x200B; + +i don't believe multi-collateral will help much since (1) when and how many tokenized assets are there available to be collateralized and (2) adding in centrally issued collateral to back a decentralized stablecoin is a strange structure to me. that arrangement is still dependent on a centralized issuer honouring the redeemability / convertibility of the digital asset being collateralized. + +&#x200B; + +just sharing my thoughts, feel free to discuss. +I found out about ELEC a few weeks ago when they announced they would be airdropping some ELEC tokens to both OMG and ETH holders. + +The announcement really caught my eye so I started to research ELEC. After digging in, I am absolutely gobsmacked at the potential of this project and the people involved! + +I am going to share my research with you here and I think you will be impressed :) + +&nbsp; + +**Existing Business Model** + +In a nutshell, ELECTRIFY works with electricity providers and regulators to create an online marketplace, giving customers access to more options and cheaper electricity. Here is a summary from their whitepaper: + +>Founded by two senior executives from the Singaporean energy industry in early 2017, ELECTRIFY is the first retail electricity marketplace in Southeast-Asia addressing the need for transparency and security in the energy market. With a GMV of over SGD$5 million to date, ELECTRIFY has transacted more than 30GWh of electricity for business consumers since incorporation. + +&nbsp; + +**The Future of ELECTRIFY Using the Blockchain (and the ELEC token)** + +Using the blockchain, the existing business model will be enhanced by eliminating middleman fees, reducing transaction cost, and automating electricity contract execution. + +In this ehanced marketplace, an ELECTRIFY eWallet will be used with ELEC tokens as the currency. The ELEC token will be used in several ways, inluding reserve requirements for electricity producers, fees for transacations, and loyalty rewards to customers. + +There are several very exciting aspects to their new marketplace, including their PowerPod product which is used to accurately track and audit the production from a small-scale energy producer. This enables people to buy directly from one another in their new system! + +Be sure to check out the whitepaper, as it goes into great detail on all of this and more! + +&nbsp; + +Whitepaper - https://electrify.asia/whitepaper/ + +&nbsp; + +**Big Time Connections** + +Airdop + eWallet. Does it ring any bells? OMG! Jun, the founder of Omise and OmiseGo is an advisor and investor in ELEC! In fact, he has worked very closely with the ELEC team through the whole process. + +It should not come as a surprise then, that the ELECTRIFY eWallet will run on the OMG Network! Here are a few pictures that really got my attention :) + +&nbsp; + +Martin Lim (ELECTRIFY COO): + +Hanging out with Jun from OMG - https://imgur.com/a/60VHw + +Chillin with Vitalik - https://imgur.com/a/VAR0D + +&nbsp; + +**ICO Terms** + +The ICO was one of the smoothest I have ever seen. They raised 20 million in the pre-sale (no bonus). Investments over 300k have 50% locked for 3 months. They raised an additional 10 million in the public ICO, with an individual cap of around 5 ETH. + +They had a very large KYC whitelist for the pre-sale and many of those whitelisted did not gain access because of the 20 million cap. Overall they sold 50% of the total token supply for 30 million USD. + +ETH was pegged at a fixed rate, so EVERYONE, including pre-sale investors paid the same price of $0.08usd / 0.0000851eth. + +&nbsp; + +**Potential** + +Here is where things really get exciting! The current market cap is ~19 million and the price of the ELEC token is around $0.07 (lower than ICO in USD). This is quite literally peanuts. + +IMO, the only reason it is at the current price is because of the crazy bear market and the fact that this token is pretty much unknown. + +Currently the token can be purchased on: + +IDEX - https://idex.market/eth/elec + +Kucoin - https://www.kucoin.com/#/trade/ELEC-ETH + +&nbsp; + +**Summary** + +ELEC is a token formed from an existing business in a rapidly expanding market. The team is backed by some of the biggest names in crypto and the sky could really be the limit here. + +In the short term you could see some very nice returns with this one. Cheers! +Here in the UK it's not so easy to invest in ETH without getting ripped off by high fees. I wrote a guide to help some people invest without paying ANY fees. It's what I followed to buy Ethereum but should work for other coins too. + +[How to Buy Ethereum without fees in the UK, US and Europe](https://www.foxymonkey.com/buy-ethereum-uk-no-fees/) + +TL;DR: + +* Open a Coinbase acc +* (UK only) Top-up your Revolut card to get a EUR IBAN +* Deposit to Coinbase EUR acc +* Move money to GDAX and use limit orders for a zero fee + +Comments welcome. + +EDIT: Removed Transferwise as many people had problems using it as an alternative. +The market took a very unexpected turn and no one thought that Covid can cause the crypto to dip and even some alts suffered double Digit loss. + +On the other hand ethereum held like a champ and it is a sign that ethereum can go and reach the current market cap of Bitcoin imo. + +Bullish on ETH +I have setup a sub called r/ethereumnoobies We need as many mods as possible so that we can answer questions for all the new hodlrs and traders we are welcoming to the group. If they ask questions that interrupt the flow of a sub conversation we send them with respect there. We want noobies, we want them to feel welcome and we want their questions answered. I need at least 10 mods so no one is overworked answering questions. Any volunteers. ??? +1. Eth and smartcontracts. We all know smartcontracts are revolutoinary, but their use cases are limited. Smartcontracts are awesome, but they are confined within the blockchain and data on the blockchain. In otherwords, right now smartcontracts are "you send 1 eth and I'll send back 1000 McTokens", and this contract is verifiable/trustless/amazing but its stuck within the universe of Ethereum and the data Ethereum understands + +2. It is possible to use external data to inform these contracts, but right now that process is centralized. This is a problem. Lets say the external data is a transaction of Dollars for ETH. So you send 300$ to bank account X, and then I send one Eth to your address. Right now you either do that through a third party (CoinBase), OTC (LocalBitcoins) or whatever else centrlized system you want to use. + +Knocking out that centralization, where you have to trust someone, is THE key to SmartContracts having a real world use case. But how do you get that information -- the fact that the $300 has been sent -- onto the blockchain using data that the smartcontract understands? + +3. Oracles. Right now the answer is "hey we can hire Oracle X to do the translation to represent this bank dollar transaction on the blockchain." The "oracle problem" with this is that you are 100% TRUSTING that oracle to act prudently. That they don't tamper with the data. So we can kill coinbase but now we have to trust the oracle instead of coinbase .This is a HUGE problem for Banks who want to get into blockchain but have to trust a centralized oracle to translate data. This Oracle can be hacked, falsified or defrauded. + +4. ChainLink - this service DECENTRALIZES that translation process of the Oracle. Now, the translation is trustless, and you have a trustless data feed that informs the trustless smart contract. + +Multibillion dollar institutions can rely on distributed blockchain technology and know the data that informs their smart contracts is tamperproof. + +So Thats what ChainLink does. ChainLink is the first decentralized Oracle that allows anyone to securely provide smart contracts with access to external data, off-chain payments, and really literally any other API you can dream up. Confirmation of delivery of an items (RFID, like Walton), confirmation of a wire being sent or received, interest rates from any central bank, sports scores, product/machine uptime, price of Eth/BTC in real time, weather patterns etc. Right now smart contracts are simple if/then functions where you go and manually do the if so the then comes back. Now with Oracles smartcontracts can automatically confirm or deny if then statements without any human interaction. Transactional automation for agreed upon terms on steroids. + +Anyone can now engrain off-chain data directly onto the blockchain in an actually decentralized way and use that data to directly inform trustless smart contracts, and since the Oracle is decentralized you know the data feed is secure and you’re not concerned with tampering on the Oracle’s part. This is like a skeleton key to actualize the data on the blockchain and apply that data to real world use cases. + +During the great depression the stock market (i.e. Dow Jones) performed extremely poorly for a good part of 20 years from 1930 to 1950 before stocks started their meteoric rise. Even though in the long run buy and hold outperforms active investing, in the long run we are also dead because unfortunately humans are not immortal! So exactly how does buy and hold have any credibility during the 30 year period of the great depression? I mean what if someone was getting old enough to retire during that time period? Their buy and hold strategy would have completely ruined them, right? Or am I missing something here that buy and hold investors can help clarify? + +Edit: meant 20 years not 30. +I’m currently enrolled in CC. It’s working for me, I received a 4.0 last semester as opposed to an extremely low gpa my first semester of college at a university. I also get to attend school practically for free. Yet my main reason for wanting to leave is the pressure from my dad. I haven’t even finished my basics yet. He keeps stating that colleges won’t accept my credits which is false because the colleges that I have been admitted to has accepted all. Every college has and offers your typical basics so I don’t understand why it wouldn’t be accepted. + +The biggest annoyance is that I receive no financial support even though he’s in a position to do so. His excuse is that “If you aren’t helping yourself then I’m not helping you, I won’t enable you.” He states that “I’m an adult (19) and that Im supposed to do things for myself.” He stated that I’m entitled. This is all very confusing because I know that I’m and adult but neither of my parents adequately prepared me for adulthood then blame me for being confused on some things or seeking help. + +I didn’t receive financial support from him prior to turning 18 and definitely don’t receive any now. (He has the ability to help, just doesn’t). Not only thats since turning 18 I’ve been paying for everything myself. It’s very frustrating that he shames my decisions when he doesn’t help. I brought a car and he shamed me for that but what else could I do when I didn’t have any transportation and my other parent was basically controlling me due to no transportation. I’m paying for college on my own and this is what I see as the best decision right now. Why do people who don’t help you whatsoever have the audacity to judge you? Really I just believe he is embarrassed of my choices. +Sorry if the title sounds confusing. +A recent post about reducing medical bills spurred me to make an account and ask this. I have read about these types of negotiations for years, and usually everyone online agrees, yes, all you have to do is ask, etc etc. + +I am in my 40s and have had a lot of medical problems over the past ten years which leaves me ever on the edge of financial ruin. I have never ever experienced this outcome, and I try nearly every time. My wife and I have made it a joke in our household because she is usually hears me failing at it. It makes me wonder what I am doing wrong. + +This isn't supposed to come across as "woe is me", rather I'm feeling like I might be approaching it wrong and wonder if anyone who has success can be specific about how this conversation goes. Generally I am on the phone with someone in the billing department and I will tell them straight, I don't make a lot of money and I really can't afford this, is there any way to discount or reduce... +The responses range from "no", to "sorry no". +If I push real hard I am usually offered a payment plan (at full price) if I push too hard, I am reminded that I have to pay for services and any unpaid bills will be sent to collection. + +This is primarily with medical institutions, though I have had the same level of success with my cable provider. + +Any thoughts? +This is why we will win. about 99 percent of this sub will use their new found tendies for helping people. Hedgies and the 1 percent could never understand. Its why this battle was over as soon as it began. No ape left behind. I'll hold for you, and you hold for me. Compassion can go a long way in life. + +https://preview.redd.it/5ile6saw33981.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0045a93318900e5e3a4d502d7af938a9662118c + +I can’t sleep because my tits are too jacked. + +Obsessively, I poured over the new forms released by GameStop and found some interesting info that I know other apes have put out there BUT I would like to offer it in a different way. + +Remember this tweet by the one and only, Ryan Cohen? + +https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1397047791889879041?s=21 + +Look at the date he tweeted. *May 24, 2021* + + +On *May 26th, 2021*, GameStop receives a “request” from the SEC for the “voluntary production of documents and information concerning a SEC investigation into the trading activity in (GameStop’s) securities and the securities of other companies. ..This inquiry is not expected to adversely impact (GameStop).” + +RC tweets about the “float” and all the apes go WILD with speculation... well in this case I don’t think it was speculation at all. I believe Cohen and Co. already knew the vote count possibly as early as this tweet: + +https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1392649234944507906?s=21 + +Date of tweet: May 12, 2021. Photo taken in a GameStop in Arlington, VA (according to RC) + +When this tweet came, the apes looked at every angle of it and although there is plenty that could be deduced from it, the main takeaway was seemingly the location; less than 5.0 miles away from the SEC headquarters (if someone could link to the proper DD, I will add here). + +Ok, so at this point maybe it’s safe to say that RC knew the votes cast by May 12, 2021 already were more than the outstanding shares *supposedly* in existence. + +Wow, great job Apes. 1.) We ROCKED the vote! 2.) Your detective skills are A+++ 🔎🦍 + +Today is June 10, 2021. We made it through 6/9 and were given extremely positive news: + +•Ryan Cohen is THE chairman of the board. +•Earnings report is amazing 🐸 + +AND, + +•we don’t have an official vote count (insert legal reason here) but basically we own the float. + +Oh, and if all that wasn’t enough for you, our favorite stock has closed above $300.00 for the second day in a row. I suggest watching the last few minutes of trading happen in real time if you like a thrill! + +This is just some confirmation bias for your day. I like the stock and I know you do too. Cheers Everybody! + +🚀🌙💎🙌🏼🦍 + +Buy. Hodl. And, Buckle Up. + +Edit 1) In my haste to post, I left out that the new CFO and CEO were announced yesterday. Very Bullish. +The stock market won't keep returning the kinds of yearly gains investors have gotten used to since the financial crisis bottom in 2009, Vanguard's chief investment officer, Greg Davis, said. + +"If we look forward for the next 10 years, our expectations around U.S. equity markets is for about a 5 percent median annualized return," he told CNBC on Monday. "Five years ago, we'd have been somewhere in around 8 percent." + +"Our expectations have clearly come down," Davis added. The historical average annualized return for the stock market, accounting for inflation, is about 7 percent. + +The [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) — which has soared about 15 percent since its Christmas Eve closing low, after three months of turmoil — is at the "high end of fair value," Davis said on ["Squawk Box"](https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-us/) from the Inside ETFs Conference in Hollywood, Florida. + +Davis sees earnings growth slowing to somewhere in the single digits this year, after last year's much stronger rate. As for the economy, which is coming off what's expected to be about a 3 percent growth rate for 2018, Davis sees U.S. [gross domestic product](https://www.cnbc.com/id/44505017) rising around 2 percent this year. + +With stock market returns slowing as earnings and economic growth cool off, Davis said Americans are going to need to save more and save for longer. + +Vanguard, the mutual fund giant founded in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, in 1975, has about [$5.3 trillion in global assets under management](https://about.vanguard.com/who-we-are/fast-facts/), as of Sept. 30, 2018. + +&#x200B; + +[https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/vanguard-cuts-expected-return-for-stock-market-over-the-next-decade.html) +I'm in the process of paying for our wedding which is why I have this much credit card debt (more than I've ever had). I'm not really concerned about paying it off since I know once the wedding is over our finances will be stable again, but I'm concerned about the interest fees accruing and making it a heavier burden. This is what it says about my card's APR on their website: + +\> APR will be 12.74% to 23.74% based on your creditworthiness. This APR will vary with the market based on the Prime Rate + +The $3.5k in savings is set aside for an emergency fund, and I probably wouldn't be able to start replenishing it until December or January. + +edit: thank you all so much for the help! i decided to pay off my credit card completely and will be paying for wedding stuff with straight cash. hopefully i didn't accrue too much in interest using my credit card, but now i'll be smarter. +We the mods have had a number of complaints about the first appearances of memes and joke posts showing up here. Specifically the Jim Cramer post from earlier in the week. It had a net amount of upvotes, which generally means that the community supports it. However it is very possible that users from /r/all or from the domain were upvoting it, and not the /r/investing regulars that we're here to serve. + +I personally could do without them, but /r/investing isn't here for me. We're here to serve you. So I've decided to let you guys, the beautiful readers of this sub make the decision for me. Your choices are: + +1. Let the memes go, and quit taking ourselves so seriously. This is /r/investing we will let the free market of upvotes determine whether a post succeeds, without meddling from the mods. Vote for this if you can't wait to stick it to the man by upvoting a picture of the MS logo with a Louis Vuitton hat on. + +2. Delete them and send them to hell/spam queue. If you vote for this, please leave a comment about what guidelines should be used, and what should, or should not be allowed. + +3. Allow self posts only. This has been used by other subs to cut down on karma whoring. Links would still be allowed, they would just have to be placed in the body of the text. Self posts only get comment karma, not link karma, so the incentive is towards making thoughtful, interesting posts, and not easily consumable, and quickly upvoted posts. + + +Happy voting! And always please feel free to leave us your comments, questions or concerns. +We the mods have had a number of complaints about the first appearances of memes and joke posts showing up here. Specifically the Jim Cramer post from earlier in the week. It had a net amount of upvotes, which generally means that the community supports it. However it is very possible that users from /r/all or from the domain were upvoting it, and not the /r/investing regulars that we're here to serve. + +I personally could do without them, but /r/investing isn't here for me. We're here to serve you. So I've decided to let you guys, the beautiful readers of this sub make the decision for me. Your choices are: + +1. Let the memes go, and quit taking ourselves so seriously. This is /r/investing we will let the free market of upvotes determine whether a post succeeds, without meddling from the mods. Vote for this if you can't wait to stick it to the man by upvoting a picture of the MS logo with a Louis Vuitton hat on. + +2. Delete them and send them to hell/spam queue. If you vote for this, please leave a comment about what guidelines should be used, and what should, or should not be allowed. + +3. Allow self posts only. This has been used by other subs to cut down on karma whoring. Links would still be allowed, they would just have to be placed in the body of the text. Self posts only get comment karma, not link karma, so the incentive is towards making thoughtful, interesting posts, and not easily consumable, and quickly upvoted posts. + + +Happy voting! And always please feel free to leave us your comments, questions or concerns. +Ok I want to keep it short and hopefully not too personally but I am more than happy to answer any and all questions needed. + +I’m in my 20s disabled and live with an also disabled family member. +We live in a council flat. + +We each get PIP and Universal Credits. +We get roughly £800-£900 a month. + +We moved out a bit over a year ago and so our fixed tariff has ended meaning it has rocketed from £65 a month for electric and renters insurance, to about £300 a month, NOT fixed and no insurance. + +This is apparently the cheapest tariff they offer. + +We struggled to keep up with the 65 a month, and now I just don’t know what we are going to do. +Being disabled we NEED electric, we need heating to stay warm (we haven’t even used it yet so who knows how much worse it will be) + +The government issued money to help with electricity costs will only give us about £68 so barely anything. +We don’t get any other help or support. + +We have multiple allergies and can’t drive so food bank isn’t an option for us. + +As it stands they have just continued the direct debit so are just taking the money regardless. +I’ve spoken to the company but they were useless and were acting like it was our fault… +Is there anything I can do? +I’m really worried, because if we can’t afford to live here we have nowhere else to go. +No family have space or suitable accommodation for us… + +Any advice, knowledge or anything would be more than appreciated. +Will be finishing up my masters in structural engineering in a few months. Research project was on the technical design side and relates to current role. + +Senior engineer working for a international consultancy and have completed my studies alongside full time work. + +Interested to see if anyone else has a similar story in the current market and keen to know what outcome you had in terms of a pay bump. Thanks! + +Edit: Master’s. Too early for proof reading +Its been 21 months since the Sneeze of GME, and in that time the company has completely transformed itself. From a brick and mortar retailer to an ecommerce company with a renewed focus on collectibles and digital asset ownership. + +The company has raised over a Billion dollars in cash through a stock sale and also boasts a billion dollars in inventory. + +They retired all debt early and have leased a 700,000 square foot distribution warehouse with plans on leasing more warehouse space in the future. + +They have an entire section dedicated to PC gaming including peripherals and individual components, with prices comparable or even below that of amazon. + +They have shut down low performing stores while simultaneously cutting its c-suite bloat, using that money instead as a compensation package for its front line retail workers. + +They have a board of directors who actually *listen* to their shareholders, and a shareholder base who actively communicates their needs to the board. + +Their current negative EPS is a direct result of an increased investment in transforming the company; see RC’s Chewy interview for his philosophy on growing a business. + +They have not only created a marketplace for buying and selling digital assets, but have also created their own wallet and been partnering with pioneers in the space such as Loopring, IMX, and most recently FTX. + +Their *beta* marketplace did more volume in its first 3 days than coinbase’s marketplace has done in its lifetime. + +The e t h merge has just happened, reducing the energy cost of transactions by 99.8%. + +Investors in GME have Directly Registered 23% of the entire company as of GME’s Q3 10-Q. + +Public short interest currently stands at ~51 million shares or 25% of the float, still extraordinarily high. + +If Gamestop were in real financial trouble they could issue another stock sale, only 300m of the 1bn authorized shares are currently in the market. + + +I’m sure there are a ton of other points I’m missing, but extrapolating from their current cash burn GME won’t be going bankrupt for at least 5 years , and even then they can issue more shares or take on debt to finance the business. +Hey gents, +i talked to a friend of mine who said that daytrading in general is useless, because even the fulltime daytraders that have been doing this for years for a living usually underperform the market. He says everybody claiming to get a 1% return per week or even per month, is usually a scam. + +Therefor i am wondering: Those of you who daytrade as a living for multiple years already, how much % are you anual returns? I realized i have no idea of what is realistic and what isn‘t. +so i have a account with TDA with mid 6 figures in it but a cash balance of only about 9k. I bought and sold a couple options contracts tqqq and qqq, and now i just got a pop up from TDA saying if i buy another position and close it today ill be flagged as a "PDT". I thought once you had over 25k total in your account that didn't apply anymore, or is it speaking specifically to liquid cash in your account at the open? + +i do not want my account frozen for 90 days, but i didn't think i would have any trouble with this size account. +I’ll be honest here, I’ve taken three different day trading courses this year, and because of the bans on their names I can’t actually name them (message me if you want the names), and i’ve noticed one common thing among all three. They never go into detail about what they actually do every morning. What I mean is, when you actually sit at your desk every morning, what do you do exactly? What markets or sectors do you scan? Do you check previous day levels? How do you check the 10yr note or the VIX or the crude oil? I want to know how most people prepare for the trading day. +I don’t see this issue talked about too much (and if I missed it, my apologies), but as someone whose biggest trading struggle is fear (not greed or ego), analysis paralysis is real and can hinder progress. + +For those who are unfamiliar with the term, “analysis paralysis” refers to overanalyzing everything to the point where little to no action is ever taken. Jared Wesley of _Live Traders_ (who’s an outstanding trading coach) repeatedly says “look for reasons _not_ to take a trade,” but with analysis paralysis, there’s _always_ a reason to not take a trade: wrong side of a moving average, volume not strong enough, made a high or low that’s unfavorable to the direction of trade, not at a whole or half number, tail of previous candle nonexistent or not long enough, etc. Much of this stems from one basic fear: taking a loss. While I can’t speak for other traders, I can say that, despite binging Mark Douglas books and videos, accepting a loss (no matter how small) remains a hurdle to conquer, and every time I take a loss, I add another criteria to my pre-entry checklist (which adds to the problem). + +Analysis paralysis often leads to other consequences. It causes me to misread the chart afterward and see opportunities for entries that aren’t there, and because I’d overanalyzed my actual entry, I’m telling myself “don’t overthink this one,” but by trying not to overthink it, I miss some serious signals that scream “don’t take this trade.” This is the irony of it all: by going out of the way to avoid a possibly losing trade, I end up in a losing trade anyway. + +Anyone else have any experience with this and wouldn’t mind sharing? +As above. Letting agent made a very direct threat about seeking lost rent from a deposit as a result of us disputing a cleaning cost (over £200). Their argument is they cannot pay contractors until we agree to have this deducted, and therefore cannot let the property to a new tenant. + +I’m pretty sure this is illegal, but it would be nice to confirm with someone more familiar with the law. +I'd be interested to hear what you all think of my decision not to pay into a government pension: + +I'm in my mid twenties and started working as a teacher in an independent school this year. I immediately came out of the teachers' pension scheme and as I was doing it the woman in HR asked if I was mad as it's such a good deal. Here are my reasons for coming out: + +-the government can change (worsen) the deal whenever it likes. Recently a family member of mine who had payed in for a few years suddenly had to start paying hundreds of pounds more a month, making it very difficult to save any money for an emergency fund or a house deposit + +-lots of teachers are now beginning to retire and lots of younger teachers are leaving (1 in 10 quit last year due to excessive workload). This means it is even more likely that the scheme will become more and more unaffordable + +-I'd much rather spend the money (currently almost £200 a month but this will rise year on year) aggressively overpaying on a mortgage. + +I've more or less made up my mind on this so I'm not really asking for advice, but I'd be interested to hear if there are any other pension sceptics around. To me it makes much more sense to get mortgage free as quickly as possible than to keep giving away your salary to someone else for several decades, trusting that the scheme will still be in place after approximately ten governments. To those of you (presumably the majority) who think it is a priority to pay into a pension: do you not worry about trusting your money to other people? +Adding to the momentum already behind OriginTrail, news was released today that Parity will be joining the Trace Alliance to "further our vision for a new internet where blockchains and trustless technologies foster new innovations and growth online". + +Polka Dot is the state of the art crypto right now and will no doubt be the most important development in the crypto space since Ethereum. This collaboration speaks volumes about how highly regarded OriginTrail is. + +The teams will first be working on ensuring that the current ETH gas issues won't negatively affect OriginTrail but once that is solved the working group will move onto finding other ways to continually improve the technology. + +More info can be found in this [medium article](https://medium.com/origintrail/parity-technologies-joins-trace-alliances-working-group-on-decentralization-and-tokenomics-8eaad2843ca7) + +If you are interested in learning more about what makes this such a promising project then [this](https://origintrailexplained.info/) excellent community made resource gives a great quick overview. + +*Edit - for clarity this post is about TRAC (67m marketcap) not DOT +Okay guys so last year as some of you might remember I took out a 40k loan to buy bitcoin here is an update on how it’s going. + +Obviously first off I have to eat a bit of humble pie… yes I was one of those dudes who thought it was going to go to 200k and obviously it didn’t it went the other way. + +However, instead of sulking and beating myself up I got back to the fiat mine. I run my own business and put all the time I could into that to try and pay off my loan asap. What ended up happening which was a blessing in disguise was that for the last 12 months my business has never performed better. This has allowed me to finally pay off the loan and be debt free with my bitcoin loan. + +Now what did I learn? That it is never as good as it seems and never as bad as it seems. I’ve learnt that hard work trumps all and that you really have to put everything into something if you want it to succeed. By being forced in a way to work my butt off to pay off the loan I have reached a new limit with my business and realised in some way what my true potential could be and I intend to keep pushing that limit. + +Some here might call me an idiot and that’s fine however I wouldn’t change it for the world as I learnt some very valuable lessons which I am extremely grateful for. + +Will I consider another bitcoin loan? Yes quite possibly but certainly not doing a bull run 😂 thanks for reading legends :) + +Ps: My conviction for bitcoin has never been stronger 💪 +They released it. DTCC fucked it up. Now they are on a 90 day clock. Why isn’t anyone talking about this? This has been the plan since the split was announced I thought. + +You got t+90 from splivi to get your shit DRSd and I suggest you move your lazy ass quick fast and in a hurry before you are homeless in the upcoming mUh GrEaT rEsEt + +I’m also fucking tired of waking up for work + + +Edit: nobody is talking about because I’m an idiot. Thanks u/BuildBackRicher +As stated above, I believe that the existing iOS app will be updated simultaneously with the Marketplace launch and will host all three components. + +Why? Well for starters, I’m baked AF already and this just makes absolute perfect sense. + +Why? I’ll walk you through it. + +1. Many have claimed something along the lines of “Crypto will never go mainstream until the overwhelming majority of the world uses it on a daily basis without realizing it.” Which makes sense. + +So how do you solve that problem? You trojan horse the crypto experience into an existing app that already has millions of users. + +GameStop knows this. + +What do you think would be easier? Getting 50 Million people to download a new app, or update an existing one? + +I rest my case 🚀 + +DRS IS THE WAY +Just before the stock market started in dramatic drop in 2007, the experts told us that the stock market was going up and we should increase the percentage of our investments in stocks, vs bonds and cash. Many target date funds were 70-90&#37; stocks even for people who were just a few years from full retirement. (Back then, in 2007, bonds and cash paid relatively well.) + +Now I notice that many articles in Money and Kiplinger Magazines and online boards the experts are telling us older people to increase our stock percentage to 70&#37; even our 60s. + +What is their agenda today for this advice? +Hi all! A number of years back, my wife[38F], my parents [80F & 78M] and I[38M - only child] decided to band together and start a B&B business near Bristol. My parents contributed a lot of money into the business by selling all of their buy-to-let houses where they received a large share of their annual income. The B&B involves their own house that they've lived in for 19 years and a neighbouring house, of which a small part (2 rooms) is our own residence. Their house is valued at £1 million, and the neighbouring house is valued at roughly the same amount, so our assets are £2 million. A company specialising in selling businesses valued our business at about £2 million. + +However, now we all feel the business is far too stressful, disrupting our all our lives, so much work for little profit and my dad now has dementia, so we all want to wind down the business, however, my parent's current income has drastically reduced from before the B&B was started, and they are now stressing over the lack of income. They were set on selling their own house along with the neighbouring house despite them not wanting to, and our own protests (especially for my dad with dementia, he needs to stay somewhere familiar). For the past few weeks, I kept on telling them not to sell, but they were adamant that their house was too expensive for them. Finally, I had enough and today I sat down with my mum and went through their expenses and found the house expenses actually were only a small amount of their total expenditure and it was their own lifestyle taking up a lion's share of the expenditure, so selling up and moving would not solve their problem. Their shortfall is about £1,500 per month, but I'd like to ensure at least £2,000 per month so they don't need to worry. + +The obvious answer would be for them to cut down on their lifestyle, but they already cut down 50% of their expenditures from when the B&B started, so I can't really ask them to cut down more since they gave up a lot for us. + +So we've agreed the plan going forward is to sell the neighbouring house, split up the sale price, my wife, baby and I find a house nearby for £500,000 (price of an average house in this immediate area, and roughly what we put in the business) so we can support my parents through my dad's dementia and my mum's eventual frailty. That leaves about £500,000 cash which we'd like to use to supplant my parents' income. One possible way forward is to plunk it in a savings account and for them to draw out of this as they wish, as £2,000 per month out of £500,000 would be good for at least 20 years, however we don't think this is a good use of money, and my parents would be horrified. + +One possible solution is to go back to the buy-to-let route they used to do, but they are too old to deal with the stress, and we may not have the time to commit ourselves fully (we have an infant and one on the way, and I have a job on top of the B&B) and I'm concerned about the understandable big crack-down on the buy-to-let market (I do believe there are far too many buy-to-let properties myself). + +So I'm hoping for ideas of how best my parents can invest their money to ensure that they continue with their lifestyle? We need to keep in mind that my dad may have to, unfortunately, go into a home for proper 24-hour care and this will cost a lot, so cash for this should be reasonably easily accessible. + +Many thanks! +Hey everyone, this message is aimed to the daily news anchorman u/rensole . + +In today news Rensole posted an opinion that a lot of people were against, i will not discuss that opinion because it’s not the point of this post. + +If u/rensole is reading this please listen to my tough, isn’t separating the community and making the top contributors reputation go down what the real SHILLS really want? + +Maybe they saw an opportunity to fuel hate forwards your way and trying to get you to quit and at the same time making people discredit you for all the work you’ve done. + +Think about the UNION the KEEPING TOGHETER (the community not a group of investors) and all the work you’ve been trough in this FIGHT, not only in r/superstonk but also in r/gme ... + + +PLEASE RECONSIDER AND DON’T LEAVE THE BOAT! + +Maybe you can reduce the posting, and instead of being a daily thing you post 3/4 times a week instead.. + +Just saying a lot of people look forward to your daily’s post and the shills would love to see that go! + +Saying all that, have an amazing day everyone 🦍🚀 +Per my [original post](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/twrkua/i_analysed_a_major_metaverse_project_and_believe/) where I warned everyone about SOLICE. It is now at 40c which is more than 90% from its ATH and its less than a year old. + +This project has been one disaster after another. Constant delays, regular fails to deliver, blaming others for the causes, ignoring questions from investors, VCs dumping hard, the list goes on. Check the post above for the full details. + +**This post is more about echo-chambers.** + +DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. + +That is the mantra. When something doesn't feel right, challenge it. If you get downvoted, suspended, banned whatever that is a massive red flag. As long as you are challenging respectfully and providing evidence for your concern, moderators have no right to remove you from the conversation. This is literally you doing your research. + +If you are prevented from doing your own research because the powers that be from the sub, discord, telegram, etc just keep pushing you out then you take the hint and get the f### out. + +Some of the worst examples here include Loopring and Safemoon (also down similar levels from ATH). Jump into their subs, their discord channels and their telegrams. Try challenging respectfully and see how long you last. If you think we're early in crypto, or its the wave of the future, head on over to the buttcoin sub and read the perspective of others. + +**The echochamber is one of the worst things about crypto. People get so excited to be involved "early" in a project, but this can lead to some massive emotional bias to overlook the more important fundamentals. By the time you realise the 'FUD' was truth, it's too late.** + +Don't believe anyone. Not even me. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: To clarify, + +I have been banned from: + +* SOLICE discord (three different accounts) +* SOLICE telegram +* SOLANA discord (one account) +* LOOPRING subreddit + +I have been suspended from: + +* SOLANA subreddit +* CARDANO subreddit + +I have been reported and flagged by: + +* SOLICE twitter official +* SOLICE youtube +* LOOPRING twitter official + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +EDIT2: **This post has proved my point yet again. Every single comment I've made on this post has been downvoted to hell.** Just scroll down and look. Granted its mostly by the insufferable LRC fanbois but its in pretty much every thread. We are in a f\*\*king echo chamber and you all need to open your eyes. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; +Details: I started a role in a large fortune 500 firm making $68,000 just one year out of undergrad. My current manager has mentioned "I didn't make what you're making until I was 35 years old" on several occasions. He continually mentions this and it has created an uncomfortable work environment, but nothing I'd ever mention to HR. My manager tends to make fun at people's abilities and undermines their decision making continually. I've recently slowed down my contributions to the team because anytime I speak up with an idea, it's immediately shot down. Most of the work has slowed down and others have also stopped contributing. We're a large company, I have a wide variety of skills, so I'm not worried about the ability to move to a different role. I was just offered a large increase in pay to go to another company. + +The jobs are much different. The job I'm being offered is $80,000 vs the $68,000 I make today, I will get 15 days off instead of 21 a year, the bonus is 6% of salary vs the 3% of salary I make today. I am fearful of the work life balance and if I'll be able to handle the work load. The new company also offered me $5,000 as a signing bonus but "could work on that if I needed a little more convincing". My biggest fear is that my current employer knows the company/manager that has interviewed me and vice versa. They were former partners in a business exchange. I'm fearful of the effect this could have on my career and if it will tarnish my reputation (only 8 months in at my current role). The new company is also quite a bit smaller (less than 100 employees) vs my current company (20k +). They make much less money a year than my current company, so this has me a bit scared for my position. The new company also said I will have 5 reports to me, some consisting of Harvard graduates and other Ivy league programs. This is the most exciting part to me. I've only led a small team once before, and I'm only 2 years out of college, but have really made a name for myself in my field. Any advice is helpful! + +My question is this; which things should I also be considering? + +note: both jobs are the same distance from my home and I will owe back relocation expenses to current company ($3000-$4,000). + +My other fear is that I've had 3 positions in just 2 years after graduating. +5 months at one, 10 at another, and 10 months here. + +Another edit: New company gave me a start date of early Jan, no negotiation here. It's for good reason in my opinion. To get me acclimated before my new hires come in at May. + +Thank you in advance! + +Edit: Wow so I guess my boss really sucks. Thank you all for the great advice. I’ve kind of just put up with the behavior as normal. The $68,000 he made at 35 would be equivalent to $96,000 in today’s dollars. He clearly doesn’t understand inflation. Either way, you guys are right about ageism. He clearly thinks in terms of age and not basic economic principles. +**This is not a governance poll. It's not binding and it's for sentiment only.** + +Quick Video: [https://youtu.be/DUNEep598CU](https://youtu.be/DUNEep598CU) + +Let's see if we can get 500 votes and 100 comments in 5 days. We appreciate your signaling. + + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/bjh21u) + + +&#x200B; + +Moderators are currently gathering sentiment regards Auto-Flair. We've been getting reports of the auto-flair resetting itself even after users are logging out of all devices and clearing cache. This has forced some younger account to revert to the tricycle flair for instance. We, the moderators, have the ability to tweak/remove the auto-flair. For instance, we have auto-flair set to find accounts in our sub that are very old with very old karma which helps us identify potential sock-puppets and spam accounts. + +&#x200B; + +We are also looking for feedback on what you think about creating some flair based on donuts as well. Auto-Flair opt-in based on donuts...think ocean life hierarchy. Minnow to Whale. + +&#x200B; + +This poll will run for 5 days. PLEASE COMMENT BELOW any ideas you may have. We'll start working on how best to tackle this in the next couple of weeks to make your EthTrader experience as easy and fun as possible. + +&#x200B; + +We know you may want to check more than one answer below...if that's the case just select: "See Comments" and let us know what you think! + +&#x200B; + +Raw Votes are the only metric we are looking at. Weighted votes don't matter IMO. Just Vote! + +&#x200B; + +Thanks EthTrader. Have a great week! + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/bjh21u) + +Edit: thanks for the gold! +Anyone catch where Vitalik mentioned in his interview yesterday that proof of stake might eliminate new coins minted after all? + +This happens then: + +Future value of ETH goes up as ICO holders can live off staking network rewards rather than dumping back into the market. Price goes up! + +And... + +Miners shift activities to other coins, likely ETC and potentially keep mining the existing PoW metropolis stage... resulting in another hard fork your private key will also work with. + +That is actually a great outcome and would solve the problem of ICO proceeds leaving the network. + +Thoughts? +With the surge in price of SNT could something similar happen to DICE if that was added. There are only 7 million tokens for Etheroll and dividends will be payed out in 2 weeks. Thanks +[https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/2b3f3f67-2338-4253-b7f5-a36192885492](https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/2b3f3f67-2338-4253-b7f5-a36192885492) + +You have seen these stories from the Daily Mail, now the BBC plumbing new lows in journalism. + +Yes, this guy is a scammer. Yes, this post will probably lead to him lifting a few hundred K from people. No, I have no idea why journalists keep printing this shit (some of these guys have gone to jail...this isn't a new scam). +(Posting this as I hope it will help others avoid the pain of talking to fraud departments multiple times.) + +A few weeks ago, I noticed a DoorDash transaction on my credit card, which was not mine. Never used doordash before, and don’t have an account. I called my credit card company (Chase), who dutifully reversed the charge, and sent me a new card. + +Before I even received the new card, I got a text from Chase asking if a (yet another) pending DoorDash charge was me. I replied No, and they cancelled the transaction and sent me yet another card. Again, before I even got the second card. + +So, today I’m on my third card in as many weeks, and lo and behold a DoorDash charge was posted yesterday. I again called Chase, and was transferred to fraud. + +I explained that this was the third time this happened with DoorDash, and wondered out loud if it’s due to my apple wallet — I mentioned that I noticed it would update with my new card number before I even knew what it was. + +Well, this pondering apparently set off a lightbulb with the fraud person, as she informed me that DoorDash uses something called a Merchant Wallet, which similar to apple wallet gets the new card pushed. So, she blocked that wallet update going forward. + +A learning experience for me (wasn’t familiar with merchant wallets). But also disappointing that the previous two fraud experts didn’t figure this out with the info of (1) recurring fraud at the same merchant and (2) one of these transactions occurring before I even got my card. + +Anyway, thought I’d share, in case it helps future redditors in solving credit card fraud vis-a-vis merchant wallets without having to go through multiple card replacements! + +EDIT: I think I caused some confusion with the term “recurring” in my title. The fraud was not on an automatically recurring transaction that you might set up for Spotify, for example. Rather, I meant only that the fraud kept occurring over and over with the same merchant. + + +Please use this thread to discuss how amazingly cheap you are. How do you keep your costs low? How do become frugal without taking it to the extremes of frupidity? What costs have you realized could be cut from your life without pain? Use this weekly post to discuss Frugality in general. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are more relaxed here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +Saw a response to a tweet online about cutting DD payments and now I’m spooked… https://twitter.com/griff2742/status/1553464293890428930 + +https://twitter.com/smurph1905/status/1553671030354452482 + +I cut my DD payments as my energy consumption was nowhere near the recommended DD amount. My account is in a credit of about £300. But now I’m panicking a little. + +Is it worth me overpaying now to prep for winter or should I just pay as it comes in winter? Curious to know peoples thoughts +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +The daily discussion threads turned one year old last Thursday. To celebrate this arbitrary occasion, here are some stats gathered between 6/30/2015-6/30/2016, inclusive (so technically 366 days). + +* Total threads: 364 (no thread was created on July 8, 2015 or July 11, 2015) +* Total comments: 100,253 (incredibly, /u/omg_my_legs_hurt made the [100 thousandth comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4ql31k/daily_fi_discussion_thread_june_30_2016/d4u319t) in the one-year anniversary thread) +* Total unique commenters: 5,428 (4% of subscribers) +* Average comment score: 4.45 +* Average comment score for users with flair: 4.63 (4% higher than average) +* Average comment score for unflaired plebs: 4.35 (2.2% less than average) +* Average number of comments, flaired users: 70.71 +* Average number of comments, unflaired users: 11.4 +* Users with flair: 541 (10%) +* Users who need to be talked to about their amount of flair: 4,887 (90%) +* Users who have only commented once: 1,657 (30.5%) +* The top 1% of commenters are responsible for 31.8% of all comments +* 95 users have "throwaway" in their name (1.8% of commenters) +* 74% of so-called throwaway accounts are used to comment more than once +* If you have "FI" or "RE" in your name (case sensitive), you receive 11.2% more upvotes on average +* If you have "fuck" or "shit" in your name, you receive 21.7% fewer upvotes on average +* If you have "fart" in your name, you receive 42.7% more upvotes on average (this is actually a large sample size thanks to /u/MAXIMUM_FARTING and a few others) +* Commenters have typed a total of 5,333,753 words +* 3,548,003 (66.5%) of those words were typed between 8AM and 5PM on a weekday +* Assuming those redditors should have been working instead of dreaming about FI, we've cost employers $44,350 (at $30/hr, 40wpm). +* Top-level comments: 8,932 (8.9%), or 24.5 per thread +* Each top-level comment received an average of 10.22 replies +* Deleted comments: 7,344 (7.3%) +* If a comment receives a negative score, there is a 29% chance it will eventually be deleted by the user +* Controversial† comments: 1,227 (1.2%) +* 22% of controversial comments get deleted by the user +* Gilded comments: 8 ([1](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3f0jvc/daily_fi_discussion_thread_july_29_2015/ctkjarl) [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3k2wpe/daily_fi_discussion_thread_september_08_2015/cuum4ml) [3](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3pw5js/daily_fi_discussion_thread_october_23_2015/cwa3o94) [4](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3rm6iv/daily_fi_discussion_thread_november_05_2015/cwpbwut) [5](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4bbtr4/daily_fi_discussion_thread_march_21_2016/d186259) [6](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4d13ut/daily_fi_discussion_thread_april_02_2016/d1mzujo) [7](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4f1gky/daily_fi_discussion_thread_april_16_2016/d25705z) [8](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4oo3dl/daily_fi_discussion_thread_june_18_2016/d4ea02j)) +* Controversial† gilded comments: [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3k2wpe/daily_fi_discussion_thread_september_08_2015/cuum4ml) +* Most upvoted comment: [coworker threatens retirement](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4la8xr/daily_fi_discussion_thread_may_27_2016/d3llzvb). /u/my_FI_throwaway has yet to provide an update. + +Interactive graphs: + +* Average comment score vs how often that person comments - https://plot.ly/~tinyvices/4.embed ([imgur backup](http://i.imgur.com/I3NzMhb.png)) +* Word frequency over time - https://plot.ly/~tinyvices/8.embed (filtered to more common words; click words in the legend on the right to see them) ([imgur backup](http://i.imgur.com/qBb51AN.png)) +* Weekday comments over time - https://plot.ly/~tinyvices/2.embed ([imgur backup](http://i.imgur.com/ZOJc0dF.png)) + +Lazy wordcloud for FI-related words: + +* http://i.imgur.com/kLLeL0n.png + +Edit: lists of "top" posters if you want to look for your name + +* Top 100 daily thread posters by quantity - http://pastebin.com/HTpUZRLD + +* Top 100 posters by avg score w/ total posts over 100 - http://pastebin.com/JegeYCKT + +* Top 100 posters by avg score w/ total posts over 10 - http://pastebin.com/1cXag4FW + +Edit #2: Top 115 posts of all time, for the bingers + +[1](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4la8xr//d3llzvb) [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3erbtg//cthp9pv) [3](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4764eo//d0b0stx) [4](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4iue2w//d318zjl) [5](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/49i0hl//d0s218f) [6](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4j5thd//d33xhn5) [7](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3n7pbt//cvllpgs) [8](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3v9nmx//cxlm4f7) [9](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3vejax//cxmw5ek) [10](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/41zh3h//cz6ve98) [11](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/47c2b1//d0c1b96) [12](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4cey6t//d1i0gcb) [13](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4k1xnn//d3bgoxn) [14](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4hzetd//d2tsjtf) [15](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4msect//d3xy9vu) [16](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4hgcm9//d2pih7f) [17](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/49i0hl//d0rz6t7) [18](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3zjplq//cymx4ko) [19](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/41tvni//cz54iv0) [20](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4k1xnn//d3bho6x) [21](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4jw4co//d3a32h8) [22](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3lf2jp//cv5wi5z) [23](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3sitk6//cwxlevl) [24](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/43zcln//czmcq57) [25](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4o0vt2//d48nzlx) [26](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4ql31k//d4ttcfu) [27](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4k7qdi//d3ctaqe) [28](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4q8v4s//d4r32wa) [29](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4msect//d3xywk0) [30](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/40m1v1//cyv9ocl) [31](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3i6sqg//cudsjk6) [32](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4k1xnn//d3blb96) [33](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4jw4co//d3a4n3z) [34](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3cf569//csuwmtz) [35](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3ibie3//cuf4fq1) [36](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4mhvc2//d3vom20) [37](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3mbm7y//cvdmxgj) [38](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4jqcnm//d38x3t7) [39](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/46uuvc//d08cymd) [40](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/47uh1w//d0fqw06) [41](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4fsgjm//d2bkqgw) [42](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4fsgjm//d2bplg1) [43](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4m0pem//d3rqw34) [44](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4526z8//czuu2nf) [45](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4j0590//d32mnnx) [46](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3ywfwr//cyh8tp5) [47](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3d5h6g//ct1yeem) [48](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4ocrwr//d4blpno) [49](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4ij2ri//d2yjcbq) [50](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3rh9lf//cwo2p3z) [51](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4acnii//d0zf7p9) [52](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3gu4ni//cu1kdhp) [53](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4q8v4s//d4r4e2y) [54](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4msect//d3y2uxc) [55](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3yifcz//cydrfms) [56](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4gthfv//d2kky1f) [57](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4br40t//d1bomxq) [58](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4p41bd//d4huq65) [59](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4jknho//d37gdm8) [60](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3ejstg//ctfx2qj) [61](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3z0ci1//cyi91zh) [62](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3x2esp//cy14tl2) [63](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4cey6t//d1hmpwy) [64](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4fh2ca//d29143a) [65](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4lk20d//d3o1ama) [66](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3nk8g4//cvov9ck) [67](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4pg6fk//d4l0lyl) [68](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4gyvv9//d2m227v) [69](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4nl01f//d44s2r1) [70](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4myhz4//d3zb8wj) [71](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3nk8g4//cvp3004) [72](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3zjplq//cyms9qk) [73](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3prbw9//cw8qe60) [74](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3camdu//cstv65q) [75](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3wxc4c//cxzvepv) [76](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4j5thd//d33yfui) [77](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4nl01f//d44wbog) [78](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4dal68//d1p8gdt) [79](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4252ce//cz7qz3m) [80](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4gnyvv//d2j69jn) [81](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3x79rn//cy2462x) [82](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4i4m6s//d2vau1n) [83](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4d13ut//d1mxkkh) [84](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3ibie3//cuf0wjc) [85](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4k1xnn//d3bkw08) [86](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3qekux//cwek6nq) [87](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3pc8kr//cw59ug1) [88](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4pa3iv//d4jbwx6) [89](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3snf5a//cwywmzh) [90](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4i9loz//d2w8r64) [91](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3gpjvt//cu0fzrj) [92](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3prbw9//cw8uo85) [93](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4ahybe//d10k0za) [94](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3xovqt//cy6lscl) [95](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4o0vt2//d48mbto) [96](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4f1gky//d25g2vb) [97](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4mcdc9//d3ubc2t) [98](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/48loqe//d0kwkl3) [99](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4ie635//d2xcxtw) [100](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4myhz4//d3zcx6b) [101](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3lx85b//cva2fy7) [102](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3tjz8s//cx6y4yk) [103](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4axs11//d14fehf) [104](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3fzomj//cttj6x3) [105](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4l4roc//d3kju2a) [106](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4nfsiy//d43ovem) [107](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3f0jvc//ctk9isd) [108](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3fqfoy//ctr4jtd) [109](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3noye9//cvq9thv) [110](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4c57tf//d1f6xeg) [111](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4eqmo2//d22l8bm) [112](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/467ujn//d036ad5) [113](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4jqcnm//d38v3gk) [114](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4ki4wk//d3f8f4p) [115](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/3qjnde//cwfsohv) + +Edit #3: I've shared the database publicly as a SQL script. Don't download this on a whim! It's 36MB so it'll crash most text editing software, and you need a SQL server to do anything with it. MySQL is free. https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_l3bR4ne9fxb1VvYnd2WVl2Zzg + +This was a fun project and some of the results were pretty surprising. Let me know if anyone has any requests. Also, thanks to the dozen or so people who helped with ideas in the last couple daily threads. +http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/01/inequality-work-hours/422775/ + +Interestingly, I think the truth is in a combination of all of the points made in this article: + + +* Excessive consumption +* Socialization at work (what else would we do beside work?) +* Inequality of wealth + + +Most of this probably seems pretty obvious to most of us, but I had never heard of such predictions of prosperity from the past before. If that fellow were to wake up from the dead today, I feel like he'd be kicking all of our asses for wasting so much. +Could anyone please explain to me why Binance has become the dominant exchange of cryptos? I feel like it is not as safe as Coinbase since its management team looks fishy. Also, I am not sure if they are free of the Chinese government's regulations as claimed. +Hi guys, im new to investing and just wanted to put maybe 15-20 pounds into cryptocurrency just as a little experiment to see how it goes. What would you guys say is a good starting currency to explore with or any good suggestions on where i should invest my money. Thanks :) +We have 13 days left. I am hoping they will dip a bit more. Especially after the Friday the 10th since people like me get paid that day and will put a good chunk towards btc. Do you guys think the alt coin sale is over? +I learned a lot of things in the last couple days. + +The first thing is that crypto has historically crashed each Jan... good to know... Ill be ready next year + +Secondly, I realized what tether is theoretically used for... to tether your money to a stationary source during volatility. Seems to make sense on the surface but the more I read many refer to it as a scam... so whats the deal? +This is just me being frustrated. I just wanted to say it. + +I have sensory issues. There are a lot of things I can't eat, trying will legitimately make me puke. That's not hyperbole- I have thrown up from that before. I was trying my very hardest, choking and gagging, to just eat the food. I threw up anyway. I'm not just a spoiled child or something, I really can't keep a lot of things down. + +People have told me all my life "Well if you won't eat [food] then you just must not be really hungry." I get so mad. I've been in a situation where I was dropping weight like crazy and near passing out because I was starving, and I still didn't eat that stuff. Why? Because throwing up is not productive when you're hungry! I was living off a few potatoes a day at the time and no one considered it an issue because there were canned green beans and whatnot around that I wasn't eating. That I couldn't eat. It messed me up bad and I still have food anxiety issues from it. + +For perspective, imagine you found a rotten piece of days old fly-covered chicken in an oily puddle on the side of the road. Imagine someone told you that if you were *really* hungry, you'd just eat that. That's how I feel a lot of the time. + +But the list of things I can eat is so darn small. I rely on meat a lot, which gets *expensive*. I can't make any of those cheap meal recipes, because most of the time a good 2/3rds of the ingredients are inedible to me. I try to use as much cheap "filler" food (rice, bread, noodles, potato) as I can, but you can only eat so much of that stuff in one sitting. Or at least, I can only eat so much of it- If I try to eat nothing but fillers for a meal, I start getting flashbacks to that time I was starving and was living off nothing but a few potatoes a day. Then my food anxiety starts coming back, then I end up binge eating because my brain is a panicked animal. + +It's so darn hard to balance cheap meals with both sensory issues and knowing that if I cheap out too much I'm going to end up in that food panic spiral again. + +I'm okay. I'm not starving right now or anything. I make enough to cover my essentials- barely, but enough. I just get so frustrated with myself when I see how much money I could save, if my body would let me eat cheaper. I'm jealous of people who can have beans on rice. But oops, I can't eat beans. + +I'm just frustrated. I just wanted to complain. +Good morning, + +Stocks are still very irrationally strong at the moment. I don't particularly like it, but I may as well try and capitalise on it! Here is my watchlist for today: + +1. **$CGIX (Cancer Genetics) -** This was the leading gapper until about 5 minutes ago. I tried making a trade earlier for the break of the VWAP, but it's had a large selloff and I took a small loss here. +2. **$BPTH (Bio-Path Holdings) -** Catalyst here is receiving a Third US Patent and I do quite like the setup here at the moment. It's just broken past the pre-market high of $11.21, making a new HOD of $17.03. I'm now going to wait for a pullback as it's looking very extended. High is a Doji candle, so I'm expecting some reversal here but there have been some large bids on the Level 2. This is a very hot stock at the moment. +3. **$OLB (The OLB Group)** \- This has been very choppy premarket, but has the benefit of being a relatively new stock and the potential to make some big moves. Currently below VWAP so not interested until it breaks above this. + +Other stocks I'll be watching: BHTG, CMLF + +As a reminder, trading is risky, make sure you put stops in place and follow your initial plan regardless. + +Have a good day. + +\-Rep +Just curious before we put it through. The house needs for nothing and is moveable straight away (recently refurbished etc). + +It’s been up on the market since June, hasn’t been reduced at all. We’re first time buyers and with stamp duty (which I get isn’t the sellers problem) would take us to our budget around the 550k mark. + +We have the budget to buy it at 570k but we don’t want to offer that, we’d rather find somewhere we can get a bit of a bargain on and use our FTB status for something great. + +Keen to know what everyone thinks! +GME Short Squeeze What Comes Next Part 3 + +Hello all, + +Before I begin I would like to address something I have been encountering on my posts in the comments section. I keep receiving some hate concerning my opinions and I want to be crystal clear that they are just that; opinions. I also want everyone to know that is is meant to be a dialog. I am not trying to pump this stock because truthfully, this goes far beyond us retail investors at this point. What I want is a dialog between all sides to examine this truly fascinating phenomenon that is occurring. + +I would also like to clarify something, I am not a bagholder. I do currently hold bags because I own 336 shares at a $194.34 cost basis, however, that total amount is house money that was used from my profits on the first go around. + +I also understand some people are tired of hearing about this because it's the same regurgitated form of someone else's post as it keeps circulating in an attempt to retain hype and drive future buying; this is not what this post is about. As investors and individuals involved in the world of finance, this situation should absolutely intrigue us whether or not we are involved. I am here to present my logic on the situation but encourage healthy discussion and debate. + +This brings me to my first claim. This is **not** over. Now, I am not claiming that a squeeze will still occur, I am simply claiming it is not over, for better or for worse. Several things need to take place for this to be completely over, at which point I will either post my gains or my losses from the adventure. + +When I say "it" I am referring to this entire phenomenon, not one short squeeze. I do not think these events, "it", is over. This is largely due to retail and institutional purchasing not really changing all that much since we found the bottom and established support at a staggering $60. This support was lost today and found new support at $50. There was very interesting ATH action and I'm not sure what to make of it. + +Millions of bag holders (not just WSB) are still holding and in fact, averaging down, thereby purchasing more. These same bag holders are absolutely refusing to sell for such massive losses and in turn are becoming long term investors on the stock if another squeeze isn't to occur. People are picking up speculative positions in the off-chance of another squeeze. Others are determining this as a fair value for the company, not fundamentally, but based on the future prospects of Ryan Cohen and team. Finally, it is nowhere near leaving the global stage with important upcoming dates that we will discuss later. + +To examine why it isn't over let's look at both sides of the argument: + +1. Bulls claim it's not over for many reasons that you can find in the hundreds of other bullish posts, so I won't bore you with those details. My argument on the bull side is more along the lines of what I listed above. +2. Bears claim it *is* over because there was a 2250% price increase over the course of two weeks, therefore this must be a short squeeze. + +I think we can all agree, bear or bull, that *something* happened. A 2250% increase certainly isn't nothing. The question is...what? I see several possibilities and would like to discuss them in the comments. + +1. The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze. +2. The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze, but the price increase was mainly hype and gamma squeezes. +3. The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes. +4. Some combination of the above 3. + +**First, the data:** + +Based on [morningstar](http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOptions/detail.jsp?query=126:0P000002CH) the short interest is showing 78.46%. Now, I think the website is having some issues storing cookies because it will show the outdated 226% unless you open it up in incognito. + +[Market watch](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gme) is showing 41.95% + +This spread is interesting for sure, my thoughts are some of these calculations are including "synthetic longs" introduced by S3. + +It is extremely possible to manipulate these numbers via illegal methods and even legal methods using options. [Please see this SEC document to explain how this would work.](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-318.pdf) I am not trying to convince anyone to fit my narrative, but these things occur far more commonly than one would expect. The reasoning is because the fines for committing the crime are far less costly than letting the event take place. Please see [FINRA's website](https://www.finra.org/media-center/newsreleases) for the long, and frequent list of fines being dealt out due to manipulation. A common culprit? Lying about short volume. + +Let's use the absolute worst case scenario being reported of 41.95%, which mind you is still extremely high for one stock: + +**The shorts in fact covered and this was a short squeeze** + +What's interesting here is even if the shorts 100% covered all of their positions, they very well could have shorted on the way back down. Why wouldn't you? It would be insane to not open a short position when this hit nearly $500 especially if you lost half of your companies money; what better way to get it back? For the remainder of this thesis, I will be assuming that some of the short positions that exist are newly opened positions at a higher price unless someone has a counter-claim as to why that wouldn't be possible/probable. + +That would mean 226% was covered on the way up and another 41.95% was reopened on the way back down. Based on the volume and price changes throughout the past two weeks this simply doesn't pass the math check. + +**The shorts partially covered and this was a partial short squeeze.** + +Again, using 41.95% this is highly likely and the most reasonable case. Some, probably the worst positions, were covered on the way up. + +I think this is precisely what happened, we had some partial shorts covering but for the most part it was gamma squeezes, hype, and FOMO whereby the price started climbing so rapidly it became smarter for the shorts to just wait out the bubble than to actually cover all of their positions. + +Again, we fall into a "what-if" scenario regarding shorting on the way back down. + +**The shorts didn't cover anything and this was a globally hyped price increase in conjunction with several gamma squeezes.** + +This scenario does not pass the math check using the 41.95% figure. + +If the data is being manipulated then this becomes very interesting because if some of the worst positions are still open then that means all of these HF's losses that were reported were strictly interest and they are simply waiting this out for as long as it takes making back their losses on their newly opened short positions in t $300-$400 range. + +Sadly, this puts us in the guessing range yet again. We can do the math and see it's possible this scenario exists, however, we would be comparing it against losses reported by the entities that were being squeezed. + +There are way to many what-if's for me to me consider this a possibility, but I can't write it off completely. + +**Some combination of the above 3.** + +Truthfully, this isn't worth examining just yet. There would be far to many "what-if's" to address, this is something that could be address at the later dates that we will get to shortly. + +Now, I've heard it a lot regarding the 02/09 data. "It's two weeks old". Well, that is always the case. The FINRA short data is always two weeks old and suggesting that we can't pull any information from it at all is asinine. Where it gets quite murky, is the data includes 01/27 information. This was a day unlike any other in this saga. + +I will take this moment to address the following upcoming catalysts and when I truly think this will be done; one way or the other. + +Today's data 02/09, was very important because if it showed an extremely low percentage then we know shorts have exited and did not re-enter and this is completely done. Given the data does not reflect that, we now must turn to several events that could act as catalysts for either a further squeeze or a complete shutdown. + +**02/19 -** In [my last post](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/lbuhp0/gme_short_squeeze_what_comes_next_part_2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), I discussed the Failure To Deliver (FTD) conundrum. I do need some help figuring out the exact expiration date. From [here](https://financialreview.poole.ncsu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Fails-to-deliver_before_and_after_the_implementation_of_Rule_203_and_Rule_204.pdf) "The close-out requirement states that a participant of a clearing agency needs to take immediate action to close 4 out a fail to deliver position in a threshold security that has persisted for 13 consecutive settlement days by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity." + +The exact date is slightly irrelevant because I highly doubt all of these FTD's are going to deliver on the same exact day. [This site](https://wherearetheshares.com/), while it isn't an official channel seems to be doing a good job of tracking data. If you want to learn more about FTD's and the implications there please visit that site or review my last post which has links to follow for further reading. + +**02/18 -** Keith Gill aka u/DeepFuckingValue will testify before congress and RH CEO Vladimir will be attending. This can go several ways which can lead to an SEC trading halt on GameStop or with evidence that proves foul play occurred. Who knows? It will certainly be interesting and I don't even to speculate on the market reaction to this even because it could go a ton of different ways; it will be an important date nonetheless + +**02/24 -** The next FINRA short interest information will be made readily available to the public. This will be far more interesting and helpful information because it won't include the insane volatility of January, but it will also highlight the newest short positions. This data will help further drive where I think this is all going to end. It's possible that shorts opened new positions at $50 thinking it was going back to $12. Let's not speculate too much here either, it's just another dataset that will bring light to the direction this is headed. + +**03/25 -** GameStop ER. This is big too for several reasons. First, this will include the console sales cycle which historically has done well for GameStop. A typical buy the hype, sell the news event. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts leading up to this ER, maybe people won't even touch GME leading up to then due to the recent volatility, but if they do, and if there is still a lot of short interest, this too could force shorts to begin covering. Another critical part of this ER is Ryan Cohen. This will be the first time this new board addresses the public with their plans for the future and for the first time since this entire adventure began, the "dying brick and mortar" narrative will finally begin to change in the public eye. That is still the common misconception regarding GameStop, that it is a dying brick and mortar retailer where nothing has changed. This hasn't been the case for around 6 months now, but this will be the first time it is publicly address. The headlines surrounding GameStop's future plans will be very interesting to read and the markets reaction will be far more interesting. + +I have been asked a lot what my PT is and when I expect the squeeze to happen, but let me be clear. Very seldom do squeezes "just happen". In fact, short squeezes are far more common than one would think, they just typically happen over months, if not years and the shorts cover on dips so you don't even notice it's happening. In order to force a squeeze, you need to hold a decent amount of shorts underwater. Soon one will crack and start closing their position, this leads to a series of shorts closing their positions skyrocketing the price until more and more shorts need to cover. This is **rare.** + +I hope this narrative of purchasing heavily shorted companies comes to a close soon because a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money simply buying up companies because they are heavily bet against. Catalysts and massive changes need to occur like overhauling your entire business as is the case with GameStop. + +Normally, shorts will close their positions one at a time, covering on dips and you don't even notice it's happening. In times where you see a price rise of seemingly no news could very well be shorts closing their positions because their research led them to realize this company is on the road to recovery. + +I digress. Given the most recent data and the multiple upcoming catalysts I am still very bullish on a GME short squeeze. My [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/k3p4bc/when_will_the_gme_squeeze_happen_answers_here/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) from quite some time ago illustrated the importance of catalysts regarding a short squeeze, this is still very much the case. The first run was interrupted and the second run won't happen with magic, it requires a catalyst. Another post was titled [For those who do not understand the inevitable GME short squeeze](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/k688qv/for_those_who_dont_understand_the_inevitable/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), was at the time "inevitable" because math. That is no longer the case. It is no longer inevitable but it is still possible. + +I want to be clear: This is not nearly as close to a sure thing as it once was and it depends on a lot of different factors. One of the largest is the people. Granted, a lot of what's happening now is in the hands of institutions but millions of retailers holding their positions to the grave certainly helps the institutional buyers have more faith in their play to continue a squeeze. + +**SO WHAT DO I THINK** + +I think shorts certainly covered some of their positions, but not all. I also firmly believe a significant amount of short positions were opened on the way back down by both HF's and individuals. Some certainly positioned high, but based on sentiment, it appears a lot of people think GME is fairly valued around $20 (which I disagree with but let's use that for the time being). That would mean shorts would have no problem opening positions at 100,70,60, even $50. + +42% is *still* very high which means a squeeze is inevitable so long as the company continues in a positive path. However, squeezes typically aren't as abrupt as people think. They are actually quite common, in fact another position I'm heavily invested in is SPCE and they have been going through a squeeze for several weeks and will continue to squeeze so long as news continues to be positive. + +How would we get an abrupt short squeeze? A massive bull run. The new shorts that entered at lower levels wouldn't be too hard to catch, however, they are probably low volume, so when they buy to close, it won't be large enough volumes for massive peaks, but a bull run very well could lead to these lower tiered shorts closing, triggering a gamma squeeze. If gamma squeezes are made week over week then shorts at the higher end would have two options: + +1. Close early and take profits +2. Wait it out because they are positioned so well that interest means nothing and they don't think there is any hope of us rising to those levels. + +In the first case, them closing early would be a nice short squeeze to probably several hundred dollars, but it wouldn't break $1000. + +To break $1000 we would need a big bull run to catch the shorts, trigger gamma squeezes, and keep momentum until they are caught and underwater. This is highly unlikely unless there is another global sentiment. + +**NOTE:** ALL OF THESE ASSUMPTIONS I AM MAKING ARE BASED ON THE 42% REPORTING. IF IT IS IN FACT 78% THEN THE POSSIBILITY IS TREMENDOUSLY INCREASED FOR THESE THINGS TO HAPPEN. + +**SO WHEN DOES IT ALL END** + +My though is if by the end of March these catalysts were not enough to reignite the hype and squeeze, then it will essentially be over except in the case of a few circumstances: + +1. A VW/Porche moment occurs where a large buyer picks up a large portion of the company. +2. Some other currently unknown catalyst appears seemingly out of thin air +3. The data was in fact manipulated. Regardless of what the data says, if the shorts did in fact lie about their short int to take the fine over being squeezed, then they will be squeezed regardless. + +It is quite possible, that these catalysts and moments aren't enough to force a squeeze anymore especially if the shorts have repositioned really well. I will retain the mindset that this fateful January 2021 was **not a short squeeze.** However, that does not mean it will ever actually happen. + +**SO WHAT IS YOUR PLAY HOOMAN?** + +Well, I am long on GME which is why I didn't mind hopping back in even at outrageous prices. I will continue averaging down and don't plan on selling for quite some time, probably several years. The reason for this is I believe in Cohen and his team to turn this into something unexpected and I imagine an eventual ROI. Once this is all said and done and I think either the shorts truly have covered or they simply got away with it (Beginning of April), I will be posting my DD for GME as a long play regardless of the squeeze mechanics. + +Thank you all for joining me on this wild journey. I hope we can discuss some of these points in the comments like adults and truly try to grasp this wild situation we are all in. There are extremes on both sides from "get over it, the squeeze happened" to a cult like mentality on the other extreme. I hope through discussion we can find the moderate approach and further understand the market mechanics at play. + +Thanks for your time + +**WARNING: Until the squeeze business is over for good, this is a very volatile and risky play. Joining now for the hope of a potential round 2 squeeze should only be done in a speculative manner with money you are willing to lose. This is more akin to a gamble than it is investing. I think the current market price is fair given the future prospects of the company but do your own DD, I will not be releasing any until this squeeze is put to rest.** + +**TL;DR**: I am still bullish on this scenario even at 42%, if it really is 78% then I am extremely bullish. There are a plethora of upcoming catalysts that could reignite the squeeze but even if none are powerful enough, with Cohen's new direction we could expect good news for quite some time forcing shorts to exit on a more spread out timeline. + +*Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I do not wish to sway your opinion in either direction. I simply seek to examine this interesting and volatile situation via crowd sourcing. What you do with your money is entirely up to you.* +I'm sure I don't have to point out to anyone here the glaring parallels between the fall of Rome and what is currently happening to the United States. + +Just like Rome clipping coins to pay their obligations, the United States federal reserve clips our labor by lending money at negative real interest rates. Eventually the people catch on and lose faith in the currency. It happens without fail. With Rome, the straw that broke the camel's back was when the soldiers quit accepting the payment they were offered and Rome lost their defenses. + +I often think about this and how it will shake out today. I imagine all of the government secrets that our fiat money pays to keep hushed. The hidden technologies. The cover ups. All the smoke and mirrors that keep the great deception alive and society running. + +Do any of you think about this? Does it worry you? Excite you? What do you think will happen when the tipping point is reached? Do you think I'm just crazy? Will we see the fall of the US empire or will it just continue as business as usual for the foreseeable future? I want to hear everyone's opinions. +# Pre Market Brief for Friday July 31st 2020 + +* ***PERSONAL NOTE: I WILL BE ON A BUSINESS TRIP FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF AUGUST (1-16). I WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE THE TIME TO PUBLISH THE PRE-MARKET BRIEFS DURING THIS PERIOD.*** + +You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on [The Twitter Link Here](https://www.tradinganalysisresources.com/2020/05/free-references-and-resources.html?m=1) . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub. + +[Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit](https://www.tradinganalysisresources.com/2020/05/free-references-and-resources.html?m=1) + +[The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/hcja2q/the_ultimate_quick_resource_for_the_amateur_trader/) + +*Published* ***3:05 AM*** *EST / Updated as of* ***3:05 AM*** *EST* + +**JOKE OF THE DAY:** Whats the best way to end up with $1,000,000 trading penny stocks? Invest $10,000,000! + +\----------------------------------------------- + +***Stock Futures:*** + +* [Pre-Market Trading](https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/) +* [Asian stocks](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-set-rise-big-001958196.html) falter as global growth fears temper tech boost + +***Thursday 07/30/2020 News and Markets Recap:*** + +* [Pre Market Brief for 07/30/2020](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/i0hge8/your_pre_market_brief_for_07302020/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) +* [Big Tech](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/big-tech-earnings-surge-during-pandemic-while-the-economy-slumps/2020/07/30/77d858ee-d2db-11ea-826b-cc394d824e35_story.html) Earnings Surge During Pandemic While the Economy Slumps + +***Friday*** ***July 31st 2020*** [***Economic Calendar***](https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar) (All times are Eastern) + +* **08:30 AM** [**Personal Spending MoM**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-spending) JUN +* **08:30 AM** [**Personal Income MoM**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/personal-income) JUN +* **08:30 AM** [**PCE Price Index MoM**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index) JUN +* **08:30 AM** [**PCE Price Index YoY**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/pce-price-index) JUN +* **08:30 AM** [**Employment Cost Index QoQ**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-cost-index) Q2 +* **08:30 AM** Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ Q2 +* **08:30 AM** Employment Cost - Wages QoQ Q2 +* **08:30 AM** [**Core PCE Price Index YoY**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index) JUN +* **08:30 AM** [**Core PCE Price Index MoM**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-pce-price-index) JUN +* **09:45 AM** [**Chicago PMI**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/chicago-pmi) JUL +* **10:00 AM** [**Michigan Inflation Expectations Final**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence) JUL +* **10:00 AM** [**Michigan Consumer Expectations Final**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence) JUL +* **10:00 AM** [**Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence) JUL +* **10:00 AM** [**Michigan Current Conditions Final**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence) JUL +* **10:00 AM** [**Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence) JUL +* **01:00 PM** [**Baker Hughes Total Rig Count**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-rigs) 31/JUL +* **01:00 PM** [**Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count**](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-rigs) 31/JUL + +***News Heading into Friday July 31st 2020*** + +*NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.* + +* [32 Stocks](https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/07/16863119/32-stocks-moving-in-thursdays-after-hours-session) Moving In Thursday's After-Hours Session +* [Nokia](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nokia-posts-surprise-second-quarter-051722368.html) ($4.45) posts surprise second-quarter profit jump ahead of CEO change. Nokia EPS beats by €0.03 on strong margin expansion. Misses on revenue. **(Breaking Overnight)** +* [LKCO](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lkco-announces-round-financing-120000208.html) ($0.83) Announces a New Round of Financing (Odd because they priced it at $3.00 per share). **(Breaking Overnight)** +* [ASX](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd-reports-unaudited-consolidated-financial-results-for-the-second-quarter-of-2020-301103698.html) ($5.12) ASE Technology EPS beats by $0.03 **(Breaking Overnight)** +* [TLSA](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/16/2063032/0/en/Tiziana-Announces-Submission-of-Patent-Application-on-Use-of-Foralumab-the-Only-Fully-Human-Anti-CD3-Monoclonal-Antibody-to-Enhance-Success-of-CAR-T-Therapy.html) ($12.25) Tiziana Announces Submission of Patent Application on Use of Foralumab, the Only Fully Human Anti-CD3 Monoclonal Antibody, to Enhance Success of CAR-T Therapy **(Breaking Ovenight)** +* [TENB](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/31/2070842/0/en/Tenable-Announces-Pricing-of-Public-Offering-of-Common-Stock-by-Selling-Stockholders.html) Tenable Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders **(Breaking Overnight)** +* [VSTA](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vasta-platform-limited-announces-pricing-of-initial-public-offering-301103663.html) Vasta Platform Limited Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering **(Breaking Overnight)** +* [CVX](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200730006130/en/Argentine-Supreme-Court-Rejects-Fraudulent-Ecuadorian-Judgment) Argentine Supreme Court Rejects Fraudulent Ecuadorian Judgment Against Chevron **(Breaking Overnight)** +* [BTI](https://www.bat.com/group/sites/UK__9D9KCY.nsf/vwPagesWebLive/DOBRZKP4) ($35.08) British American Tobacco EPS beats by $0.01, beats on revenue **(Breaking Overnight)** +* [AAPL](https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/07/16867217/apple-expects-a-delay-in-iphone-12-series-launch) Apple Expects A Delay In iPhone 12 Series Launch +* [AAPL](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-delivers-blowout-earnings-amid-015457090.html) Apple delivers blowout earnings amid COVID-19, market shrugs off iPhone delays +* [BNTX](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/31/2070877/0/en/BioNTech-Announces-Strategic-Collaboration-with-Regeneron-to-Advance-FixVac-and-Libtayo-cemiplimab-Combination-in-Melanoma.html) BioNTech Announces Strategic Collaboration with Regeneron to Advance FixVac and Libtayo® (cemiplimab) Combination in Melanoma +* [VITL](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/31/2070836/0/en/CORRECTION-Vital-Farms-Announces-Pricing-of-Initial-Public-Offering.html) CORRECTION – Vital Farms Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering +* [MBY Taisho](https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/taisho-is-said-lead-bidder-for-takeda-s-3-billion-consumer-unit) Said Lead Bidder for Takeda $3 Billion Consumer Unit +* [FB](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-31/facebook-is-set-to-finally-get-the-rights-to-show-music-videos) Facebook Is Set to Finally Get the Rights to Show Music Videos +* [FB](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-media-regulator/australia-to-make-facebook-google-pay-for-news-in-world-first-idUSKCN24V3UP) Australia to make Facebook, Google pay for news in world first +* [BAC](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bank-of-america-berkshire/buffetts-berkshire-boosts-its-stake-in-bank-of-america-to-11-8-idUSKCN24W0AM) Buffett's Berkshire boosts its stake in Bank of America to 11.8% +* [MRNA](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/moderna-board-member-resigns-to-avoid-conflict-of-interest-during-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html) Moderna board member resigns to avoid conflict of interest during coronavirus vaccine trial +* [Impossible Foods'](https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/07/16866494/impossible-foods-plant-based-burger-to-debut-at-2-100-walmart-stores-across-us) Plant-Based Burger To Debut At 2,100 Walmart Stores Across US +* [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fcc-says-amazon-proceed-kuiper-214706042.html) Amazon vows to invest $10B in Kuiper satellites after getting FCC’s go-ahead +* [GOOGL](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alphabet-results/google-ad-rebound-offsets-alphabets-first-ever-sales-drop-idUSKCN24V3I1) Google ad rebound offsets Alphabet's first-ever sales drop +* [WWE](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wwe-profit-tops-estimates-lower-224709003.html) WWE Profit Tops Estimates as Lower Costs Offset Sluggish Sales +* [SHAK](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shake-shack-results/burger-chain-shake-shack-posts-bigger-than-expected-loss-shares-fall-idUSKCN24V3K2) Burger chain Shake Shack posts bigger-than-expected loss, shares fall +* [GFF](https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/07/30/griffon-corp-gff-q3-2020-earnings-call-transcript.aspx) Griffon EPS beats by $0.46, beats on revenue +* [ULU](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-logistics-profits-revenue-drop-220749829.html) Universal Logistics Profits, Revenue Drop During Second Quarter +* [KODK](https://www.barrons.com/articles/kodak-stock-surge-loan-trump-concerns-wall-street-51596146768) Kodak Stock’s Unusual Surge Raises Eyebrows on Wall Street +* [COP](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/conocophillips-posts-adjusted-loss-coronavirus-112302059.html) ConocoPhillips to reverse most output cuts by end of third quarter +* [SALM](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200730006040/en/Amanda-Carroll-Joins-Salem-Music-Network) Amanda Carroll Joins Salem Music Network +* [HTH](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hilltop-holdings-hth-beats-q2-010001542.html) Hilltop EPS beats by $0.65 +* [COG](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cabot-oil-gas-corp.-q2-adjusted-earnings-beat-estimates-2020-07-30) Cabot Oil & Gas posts Q2 beat, reaffirms full-year production guidance +* [HUGE](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/20/07/16858262/fsd-pharma-to-liquidate-cannabis-assets-continues-with-covid-treatments) ($4.03) FSD Pharma To Liquidate Cannabis Assets, Continues With Covid Treatments +* [RVSB](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/riverview-bancorp-rvsb-q1-earnings-233011506.html) ($5.02) Riverview Bancorp EPS misses by $0.09, misses on revenue +* [VIAC](https://www.barrons.com/articles/viacomcbs-stock-jumps-on-plan-to-expand-streaming-service-51596145440) ViacomCBS Stock Jumps on Plan to Expand Streaming Service +* [EPD](https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/enterprise-prices-125-billion-aggregate-principal-amount-of-senior-notes-2020-07-30?mod=mw_more_headlines&tesla) Enterprise Prices $1.25 Billion Aggregate Principal Amount of Senior Notes +* [LYFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lyft-partners-sixt-expand-friction-203200935.html) Lyft Partners with SIXT to Expand Friction-Free Car Rentals Nationwide +* [Chinese-backed](https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN24V38M) hackers targeted COVID-19 vaccine firm Moderna (MRNA, GILD, NVAX) + +Note: Seeking A url's and Reddit do not get along. + +***Upcoming Earnings:*** + +* [Earnings Calendar](https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/) +* [Earnings Calendar II](https://tradingeconomics.com/earnings) + +***COVID-19 Stats and News:*** + +* [COVID-19 Stats](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) +* [Latest Map and Case Count](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) +* [Resurgent](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/deadly-day-in-us-sun-belt-uk-renews-lockdowns-virus-update/ar-BB17nPYn) Covid-19 Wreaks Havoc From Japan to U.K.: Virus Update + +***Macro Considerations:*** + +* [Economic Indicators](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/indicators) +* [Economic Indicator Forecasts](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/forecast) +* [Tracking America’s Recovery](https://www.cnn.com/business/us-economic-recovery-coronavirus) + +[***Most Recent SEC Filings***](https://www.lazyfa.com/events/) + +* [SEC Form 10-K](https://sec.report/Form/10-K) +* [SEC Form 10-Q](https://sec.report/Form/10-Q) (Quarterly Performance) +* [SEC Form 8-K](https://sec.report/Form/8-K) (Information of Shareholder Interest) +* [SEC Form DEFA14A](https://sec.report/Form/DEFA14A) (Upcoming Shareholder Meeting) +* [SEC Form 4](https://sec.report/Form/4) (Insider Trading) +* [SEC Form 144](https://sec.report/Form/144) (Insider Selling) +* [SEC Form 13F](https://sec.report/Form/13F-HR) (Institutional Investment) + +***Other*** + +* [Current Trading Halts](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts) +* [Reg SHO Threshold List](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=RegSHOThreshold) +* [Short Sale Circuit Breaker](https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=ShortSaleCircuitBreaker) +* [Highest Short Interest](https://www.highshortinterest.com) +* [Most Recent Insider Filings](https://m.insidertracking.com) +* [Fear and Greed Index](https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/) +* [OTC Market Snapshot](https://www.otcmarkets.com) +* [Highest Implied Volatility](https://www.barchart.com/options/highest-implied-volatility/stocks) +* [Most Recent IPO Filings](https://www.ipomonitor.com/pages/ipo-filings.html) +* [Dividend Calendar](https://www.thestreet.com/dividends/index.html) +* [Most Active Stocks](https://finance.yahoo.com/most-active) +* [Daily Gainers](https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/day_gainers) +* [Daily Losers](https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/predefined/day_losers) + +\----------------------------------------------- + +[Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit](https://www.tradinganalysisresources.com/2020/05/free-references-and-resources.html?m=1) + +Other Useful Resources: + +[The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/hcja2q/the_ultimate_quick_resource_for_the_amateur_trader/) + +Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on [The Twitter Link Here](https://www.tradinganalysisresources.com/2020/05/free-references-and-resources.html?m=1) . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub + +It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading. +So yesterday we are celebrated a family members birthday, I couldn't afford much, I got some cool candles for the dessert we're having, & a card (I wrote a nice little message for them as well :)) & gift card to their fav coffee shop ($10) and was told by my other family I should've went all out and bought big or got them a physical item and not a stupid 'gift card' that's inside the card. I thought it would be a good gift since they go to that coffee shop often and is what I could afford, not everyone has tons of money to spend :( thought I did nice thing but some of my family made me feel kind ashamed I didn't get a better 'item' or 'gift' + +Just little rant/vent, people think family should be spent more on, what do you think if you had similar situation before or not. +Welcome to the Monthly Skeptics Discussion thread. The goal of this thread is to promote critical discussion and challenge commonly promoted narratives through rigorous debate. It will be posted and stickied every Sunday. Due to the 2 post sticky limit, this thread will not be permanently stickied like the Daily Discussion thread. It may often be taken down to make room for important announcements or news. + + **To see the latest Daily Discussion Megathread, [click here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%22Daily+Discussion+Megathread%22+author%3AAutoModerator&restrict\_sr=on&sort=new&t=all)** + + **To see the latest Weekly Support Discussion, [click here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%22Support+Discussion%22+author%3AAutoModerator&restrict\_sr=on&sort=new&t=all)** + + + + *** + + **Rules:** + + * All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/about/rules/) apply in this thread. + + * Discussion topics **must** be on topic, ie only related to critical discussion about cryptocurrency. Shilling or promotional top-level comments will be removed. For example, giving the current composition of your portfolio, asking for financial adivce, or stating you sold X coin for Y coin(shilling), will be removed. + + * Karma and age requirements are in effect here. + + + +*** + + **Guidelines:** + + * Share any uncertainties, shortcomings, concerns, etc you have about crypto related projects. + + * Refer topics such as price, gossip, events, etc to the [Daily Discussion Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%22Daily+Discussion+Megathread%22+author%3AAutoModerator&restrict\_sr=on&sort=new&t=all). + + * Please report promotional top-level comments or shilling. + + * Consider changing your comment sorting around to find more criticial discussion. Sorting by controversial might be a good choice. + + * Share links to any high-quality critical content posted in the past week. To help with this, try searching through the [*Critical Discussion* search listing](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=flair%3ACritical-Discussion&restrict\_sr=on&sort=new&t=all). + + + +*** + + **Resources and Tools:** + + * Click the RES subscribe button below if you would like to be notified when comments are posted. + + * Consider participating in the monthly Pro & Con Contest. The contest will be stickied inside the Skeptics Discussion thread every month. Since it is a pilot project, the rules and format may change as the project evolves. See the offical contest thread for more details when it gets posted and stickied below. + + +*** + + Thank you in advance for your participation. +[Here's](https://twitter.com/QuiverCongress) the Twitter account. It is used to post pure data without any added commentary that could detract from its objectivity. + +Here's a graph of US Senate trading sentiment alongside the S&P 500: + +[US Senate Sentiment](https://preview.redd.it/487in65qyq481.png?width=2404&format=png&auto=webp&s=701af98cb6e4efeeaea0fca7d00342506482ec59) + +Note that the largest negative bar is from when a handful of senators were pressured into selling off their holdings following insider trading allegations from the sales before the COVID crash. + +To give some background on where the data is coming from, US congressmen are required to disclosed stock transactions within 45 days of their occurrence. I've been writing code to scrape the data and make it more easily accessible, and more interpretable by combining the raw transaction information with price data. + +I hope you guys find the account useful, and let me know if you have any feedback on the format of its posts. +I'm not sure if this is the right place, but I felt like I had to share my experience; just in case. Last week I noticed an Amazon charge on my credit card. Nothing crazy, less than five dollars. But still. I don't use Amazon anymore, nor do I use that card. So I call, report it as fraud, lock my card, and move on with my day. Here's the scamy part: later I received a text saying that some package on Amazon has been sent out for shipping. A $300+ package. If you didn't order this, follow this link it says. Luckily, I thought it seemed sketchy. Plus I never follow any links sent to me unless they are from a known source. But, having just reported fraud from the same company; I could see how someone could panic and follow the link. I haven't heard of this type of scam, so I thought maybe I could help someone else by posting. +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +I have been looking to get out of my current job since feb, i have been applying for jobs since March but have been unsuccessful. + +My work just let me go today. They no longer want to keep me on job keeper I have about a 10 month emergency fund (if there is no big emergency expenses) . I own my parents home and helped pay it off and just bought my own place in Jan, so I dont think i can claim job seeker. + +I'm scared and I don't know what to do now. I've been apply for jobs so long now i don't know if I can get anything. I changed careers a year ago out of a hospitality job to get into sales in foodservice industry. I only had 1 year experience in sales and i think i need to change industries. I dont know if my skills are transferrable. + +Has anyone found a job in Melbourne during lockdown ? Any advice? +From what I can understand the next 6-12 months are going to be difficult for a lot of people across the globe, and we are likely to go into another recession. + +With this all in mind is it still worth changing roles? Work is fine, but wanting to learn a different area of my industry (marketing). I'm young, early twenties with emergency savings. + +Would love to hear your thoughts and experiences. +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, Ethereum Classic, and minor questions. +- Important content should be posted as a separate thread. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +This detective work is a little less technical though... + +Was watching [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlORst8bUvA). A podcast by businessmen Peter Schiff. Schiff has previously mentioned Bitcoin and Ethereum though he isn't a fan of cryptocurrency he's certainly given Ethereum more cred in the two or three times he's mentioned them both. + + +Was reading [this](http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-10/200-lines-code-will-disrupt-multi-trillion-dollar-industry?page=1). A article reposted by zerohedge but originally from [here](https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/200-lines-of-code-will-disrupt-this-multi-trillion-dollar-industry-21252/). This author of this article references the blockchain and I think we can all agree indirectly talks about Ethereum. + + +Now for the interesting bit. Both of these guys went to a 'high end investment conference' that was on a cruise ship last week setup [here](https://realestateguysradio.com/summit/) and both of them know about Ethereum. This suggests to me that crypto was one of the 'high end investments' that was discussed by a fair few number of these investors. These guys are talking about about a real-estate market worth trillions, a gold market worth trillions, a stock market worth trillions and here we are worth 4 billion. + + +What's the bet there was no talk about Ethereum at the last Summit at sea?. I reckon we're just warming up here. +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, Ethereum Classic, and minor questions. +- Important content should be posted as a separate thread. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Welcome to the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is intended as a welcome place for discussion of all non-Ethereum related crypto. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Welcome to the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is intended as a welcome place for discussion of all non-Ethereum related crypto. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I'm working on a write up of the implications of Google trends data on crypto prices and \*I need your help\* + +In the past year, analysts and traders have grown accustomed to a looking for insight into crypto price movements based on Google trends reporting of search activity. + +It's clear we are witnessing a decline in search volume since a Christmas \- the crypto talk at Christmas dinner is over and interest has plunged. + +[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=ethereum,bitcoin](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=ethereum,bitcoin) + +\*\*What does this tell us?\*\* + +The best way to answer this is to share your own experience using search engines with cryptos. 4 big questions are: + +1. Did you search more when you were new to crypto before you discovered tracking apps? +2. Do you search more when the price is going up or when it is going down? +3. What search terms do you used to track crypto? +4. What results do you rely on? + +Information and insights gathered here will be shared with the community in a write up. +Backstory: I’ve been following this sub for a while and I am very familiar with the 4% rule. I know now it’s more like the 3% rule, but I’ve been saving to be somewhere in that range. I’m more interested in fatfire (I’m 30 and at a $3.7M net worth through business income, I don’t want to retire for another 10 years or so) but I’ve been trying to implement the things I’m learning here. I’m not the most brilliant and certainly not financially adept, so I’m just struggling to understand a few concepts! + +Insert question. + +I just met with a financial advisor and she talked to me about whole life insurance. And to keep it basic, she ran models for me to where I would put half my savings each year into whole life insurance and the other half into other investment vehicles (the market or real estate or whatever I choose). + +She basically said that when the markets downturn, you start pulling from the whole life policy instead of your active investments. Literally all the models she ran made perfect sense, and if I die my spouse still gets my life insurance benefit. The life insurance gains like 4% per year and is pretty much guaranteed. And since I’m 30 and healthy, the premiums aren’t ridiculous on a large policy. + +All in all, the models allow you to pull out a hell of a lot more than 4% (somewhere like 6-8%) because they don’t have a chance of portfolio failure from the safety/security of the life insurance policy. Basically it takes less money to retire because you’re able to take out higher percentages. + +My question is, is this even real?? If so, why aren’t more people doing this?? Help! +[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-volatile-is-the-coronavirus-stricken-stock-market-after-the-worst-week-since-2008-the-dow-is-now-on-pace-for-its-best-week-since-2011-2020-03-04?mod=home-page](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-volatile-is-the-coronavirus-stricken-stock-market-after-the-worst-week-since-2008-the-dow-is-now-on-pace-for-its-best-week-since-2011-2020-03-04?mod=home-page) + +&#x200B; + +Bunch of pussies. Try being a Robinhood Trader for a day when the shit doesn't work when markets are up or down. +If there’s a company you are very bullish on long-term, is there any reason not to just buy LEAPS instead of shares outright? This could be extremely risky for “meme” stocks or stocks with poor fundamentals, but I was considering using this strategy mostly for ETFs like SPY or QQQ or companies with strong fundamentals like AAPL/MSFT/NVIDA/etc + +I was also thinking about using this for my tax-advantaged accounts (Roth IRA) where I can just set it and forget it + +Thoughts? I’m pretty risk-tolerant (as someone in their mid-20s) but I’m just concerned if this would this be an excessively risky move? +A friend of mine and business associate, along with a good deal of his family has put a good deal of money in a 'investment company' that trades gold, silver & forex using a 'guaranteed system' that 'offers reliable returns. + +All the buzz words are words that worry me, so after much asking, I finally took a look at the brochures the company puts out. + +In the end, and it's even stated in the brochure I got, they are just using leverage with a martingale strategy. I have tried to explain to him that martingales work up until you're bankrupt, then you're lost with everything. His response (And those of all the family members he has), has been that it's impossible for any strategy to fail in this setup simply because gold and forex has value and isn't simple gambling. My response to them has been that since they're using margins, they more-or-less are trading in assets that can have $0, or even negative value should the market move very rapidly in one direction and wipe out the margin reserve. + +I told him that I would ask a group of people that know more than I do, so here I am. I do not actively trade stocks (Only long term buy & hold), so this is all something I can't claim much knowledge on, but feel my thoughts are correct about this 'system'. +I'm currently using Robinhood and have been getting into spreads recently. Getting real tired of trades not executing. I know that sometimes it may be an issue with liquidity but I also know how Robinhood makes its money. Is webull any better or should I just go with a commission based broker? If so any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. +Today we saw another green day. We saw a finish above the daily 20 EMA at 469.4 granted we only closed at 469.75. We saw in the last one hour a TON of resistance at this 469.5-479.6 level. It even pushed a quick sell off down to 468 before we recovered and finished green and above the 20 ema. +https://i.imgur.com/tjoKpUJ.jpeg +https://i.imgur.com/U5PaZC6.jpeg +https://i.imgur.com/TDgxi9Y.jpeg + +While we did breach that 20 ema. I am not sure we will continue tomorrow. + +Tomorrow we see the CPI data drop at 830am. I will be very interested to see the markets reaction tomorrow pre market. + +I definitely based off the heavy resistance at this 469 range that we will see a dip tomorrow. I see based off my resistance and support line where we may wic down and test the 50 ema again near 465. I forsee this causing another massive hammer candle to propel us further up. + +What are everyones thoughts? Some say the CPI is priced in but we know markets love to over react. + +I have a 1/19 470P and a 1/31 470P that im planning to set a profit take at 15%. I bought both today at the top right before close. + +I then plan to pick up a few 30 DTE calls the only thing that would hold me back from this is if we drop way below the 50 EMA. + +Thoughts? +What’s going on, FIRE crew? I got a very good Christmas present from my company - I will be making significantly more money in the new year. I have a general sense of what to do with it - try and maintain relatively the same lifestyle short of proposing to my long term girlfriend, pay down student loans more aggressively, actually max out my 401(k), put some more money into ETFs every month, etc. - but I’m wondering if there is more specific advice out there from those who have made a similar jump. Any pitfalls to avoid or general strategies to pursue would be greatly appreciated. FIRE seems so far out for me at 30, but I want to take as much advantage of this as I can. +So to start things off here is how the Fed would usually react to weakening economic conditions: + +1. Economic activity is weakening -> the Fed will ease financial conditions in order to minimize the economic pain + +2. The impact of rate cuts are not immediate, it will take 12-18 months for the full effects to kick in + +3. There is some suffering, but thanks to the Fed, the expected pain was lessened and we are able to return to growth + +Now thanks to inflation, here is how things are going: + +1. Economic activity is weakening -> the Fed is actively tightening financial conditions in order to cause economic pain in order to manage inflation + +2. The impact of rate hikes are not immediate, it will take 12-18 months for the full effects to kick in + +3. There is considerable suffering as the Fed requires economic activity to contract in order to manage inflation + +4. Once inflation is sufficiently tamed, the Fed will cut rates so the economy can return to growth + +5. The impact of rate cuts are not immediate, it will take 12-18 months for the full effects to kick in + +People are assuming that inflation is going to rapidly fall off when we don't even have positive real rates across the entire US yield curve. + +While goods inflation is rapidly abating, the recent nonfarm payrolls and ISM services heavily implies we are seeing the beginning stages of a wage-cost spiral. CPI will fall as goods disinflate, but services will support inflation. + +People believe the Fed hiking 50 bps is 'pivoting' and have twisted rate hikes into something that is positive for the markets. 'pivot' is now akin to 'transitory' and the word is now bastardized to death. + +The current economic outlook is bad. Its really bad. Analyst predictions have historically been more optimistic vs reality and this time around they all forecast a downturn. Its more likely than not their current forecasts are too optimistic and that 2023 will end up worse than many expect. + +EDIT: bring on the downvotes, I can take them +My current employer, while I don’t particularly like them, have almost unlimited overtime opportunities for each employee. I realized if I work just 5 extra hours per week, with what I’m able to put away now in savings combined with that overtime, in 3 years I could easily pit $72,000 in savings. + +Even if my job kind of sucks, that’s absolutely worth working 45 hours per week there, right? I’m a bit hesitant because I really don’t want to work there even more than I already do but for that amount of money, it’s a no brainer, right? +Anyone here FAT, could FIRE but have chronic medical issues? + +The medical question is the one thing that prevents FIREing for me as my expenses post insurance runs roughly $20k/year. + +How are people handling these situations? + +I'm on the lower end of FAT these days (thanks, stock market! Ouch), American, and VHCOL area (not moving to a lower cost region for a number of reasons). + +Nowhere near medicare age and no partner to mooch medical off of. And while I'm not old, I'm probably too old and bitchy to be 'sugaring'. 😉 + +I've considered living abroad again but it's not realistic right now. I really enjoy the community I've built here and am looking to stay, possibly travel more if the world feels safer on a number of different vectors. (One option I've considered is moving abroad until medicare kicks in.) + +I've also considered structuring things so the bulk of my income comes from ROTH and get healthcare off the exchange for less but haven't had a chance to move things around (annual income makes it a huge tax hit) but that will put me 5 years out, about 3 years longer than where my heart is at. +Last week in [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/x470ay/cant_find_any_sources_to_this_info_but_whats_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) post we saw how the S&P withdrew GameStop’s credit rating at issuers request + +Now we also know according to [this](https://www.openriskmanual.org/wiki/Withdrawn_Ratings) that Withdrawn Ratings denotes the situation where an entity's credit rating is no longer available due to a number of reasons. + +Indicatively, S&P Global Ratings withdraws ratings when + +-when an entity's entire debt is paid off or when the program or programs rated are terminated and the relevant debt extinguished + +-a corporate rating may also be withdrawn as a result of mergers and acquisitions + +-ratings may also be withdrawn because of a lack of cooperation, particularly when a company is experiencing financial difficulties and refuses to provide all the information needed to continue surveillance on the ratings + +Now GameStop [earnings](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2022-results) is out we see that the low interest French covid loan is still a form of debt the company has. + +So does this mean that the credit rating was withdrawn due to merger? I think there is a chance +Many tickers on my watchlist had big gains last week. I was still able to find a few that have underperformed and might be rotated into once growth stocks take a breather to consolidate. The market and most growth/blue chip tickers were very mixed in performance last week. + +**What am I doing?** + +I do technical analysis and selling cash-secured-puts 3 to 5 weeks out on stocks that are nearing key levels of support. My goal is to collect premium, but should I get assigned I have absolutely zero problem running the wheel on stocks I want to own. What I do now is basically wheeling on weekly puts. + +I watch over 200 stocks, I would say its 90% waiting game and 10% true technical analysis. My levels work, but it's normally because I am patiently waiting for an entry point. Yes that's a lot of tickers to watch, but I research my stocks on weekends and then monitor additional plays & levels during the weekday to see if there is an obvious setup I want to participate in. + +**Here's a few things regarding my strategy** + +**1.** I don't over-leverage with spreads because if the stock price blows past your long strike and you assume max loss you need a lot of capital to actually be assigned the shares. For that reason I don't really see selling multiple spreads as a "Theta Gang" play and is still very high risk. If I do open a spread it will be a protective put for $1-5 just to protect myself should the company randomly announce bankruptcy. + +**2.** I only sell cash-secured puts with the capability to be assigned if need be. My goal is to never take a loss on a position and always wheel it back to profitability. If something has changed fundamentally with the stock then yes I will close the position and realize the loss. + +**3.** If IV on a ticker is very low, then yes I will outright buy shares instead. + +**4.** I only aim for 1-4% per week collecting on theta and an occasional earnings theta yolo. No call-buying, no spreads (unless buying a covered put), only put-selling and shares! + +Honestly, that's about it. I'll go through some tickers on my watchlist this weekend and what I currently have open. + +# Open Positions From Last Week + +I still have a few positions open from last week and my buying power currently sitting at about half my account. Tickers with positions still open: **CODX, FROG, NIO, PLTR, TDOC, U, WKHS**. Most are sitting at 40% profit already and I'll be looking to close around 60-70% if we get a good pop. Let's see. + +# Chart Rules + +**Pink Lines** = Trading range & channel. I find stocks typically trade within certain channels until an event, such as earnings or some news which changes the fundamentals of the stock price changes the trend and a new channel is formed. + +**Blue Lines** = Key areas of support/resistance. I don't like focusing on supp/res levels every $2 down like some people do. I look at the bigger picture and find where where key levels of buyers come in to grab the stock. I'll try to sell puts there. + +# Master Plays This Week + +I just want to preface this by saying these are not recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. These are stocks that have come through my scanner and met a few criteria for me to sell puts to collect premium. I won't execute on every trade, but if the timing is right I will enter these, that's why they are on my "watchlist". My intention here is to sell the put, collect the premium, or get assigned the shares. If I am assigned the shares, I sell covered-calls trying to lower my cost basis and remain profitable on the play. + +&#x200B; + +**OSTK ($62)** + +https://preview.redd.it/3uy1c2zy9f661.png?width=2084&format=png&auto=webp&s=facc4eb3f7040ef5f76b54563ebb2a6cf5a81c35 + +I'm going to bring OSTK back this week after the red day it had on Friday. It's still near the lower end of the channel (consolidating) and I can see this getting a bounce back into the $70 zone. Support will be in the $57-58 zone if it continues to drop further. + +**Positions On Watchlist:** + +1. Jan 15, 2021 $55 put for $3.25 or $325 premium. Return: 6% + +2. Buy the dip on some shares and take some off the table as it gets close to $70. + +&#x200B; + +**PLTR ($26)** + +https://preview.redd.it/d7ubjbmz9f661.png?width=2082&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf39b4dafe9ae121ea5645e8a2e59ec7019789dc + +Implied Volatility on PLTR has been giving absolutely juicy premiums, however, it seems like it's starting to go down after its been in the $25 range the last several weeks. I'd like to see this stay above $25 next week and then potentially break-out back above $30. It's currently at the bottom of the channel, if it breaks maybe we'll see back down to $22 support. I like this ticker and will be buying the dip when I can or if I get assigned. + +**Positions On Watchlist:** + +1. Jan 15, 2021 $24 put for $1.75 or $175 premium. Return: 7.3% + +2. Shares are also good here, but I prefer to collect on the high IV while I still can. + +&#x200B; + +**SPCE ($24)** + +https://preview.redd.it/ueqni680af661.png?width=2080&format=png&auto=webp&s=a32ac8f87fa9f00668c938e912942772d9a690ba + +SPCE had to re-schedule their launch last week and the stock price seemed to be relying on a successful trip. It's had some pretty big gap downs last week and is sitting at -30% in the last 7 days. With the volatility the stock has experienced, the trend is difficult to identify. However, I think $22 level will provide good support and some buyers. If not we may re-visit $18 again like it did back in November. I'll be testing my luck on this one selling some puts. + +**Positions On Watchlist:** + +1. Jan 15, 2021 $22 put for $1.37 or $137 premium. Return: 6.2% + +2. Shares might be a good entry looking for a bounce play. Like I said, the positions I am entering will be expecting the stock to stay above $22 and perhaps get back into the $25 range. + +&#x200B; + +**PSTH ($25)** + +https://preview.redd.it/8gewi7z0af661.png?width=2074&format=png&auto=webp&s=09c572d5a71c00cd22d8f157c7befd914c876464 + +PSTH had a good run-up recently. Many investors are expecting some big news coming from Bill Ackman. Many rumors floating around for different acquisitions, but nobody really knows what's happening. In my opinion as more time goes by then we will be getting closer to a merger. With more exposure the stock has been getting I think the speculation on which acquisition alone will keep the stock above $25. Implied Volatility also not bad here. I'm going to sell an ATM put on this one. Risk level is a little higher, but any early assignment would actually do me a favor and make my trade more profitable. + +**Positions On Watchlist:** + +1. Jan 15, 2021 $25 put for $1.50 or $150 premium. Return: 6%. Break-even stock price here is $23.50, so I only need the stock to stay above that in 4 weeks. + +2. Might also pick up some shares if the stock dips some more. + +&#x200B; + +**BIG ($45)** + +https://preview.redd.it/0sezreg1af661.png?width=2082&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba56c4f2b6fef5356bdc718c0e09ec38b2edab93 + +This name is somewhat unusual and isn't mentioned very much. I've been keeping my eye on it and look at this consolidation it's had over the last 3-4 months. It's been within a 10% range the entire time, kind of cool to see. It's had a big gap down and a massive red candle Friday. I want to see some of the price action Monday or Tuesday, but in my opinion, the $43-44 level could provide a good bounce. + +**Positions On Watchlist:** + +1. Jan 15, 2021 $42.50 put for $1.85 or $185 premium. Return: 4.5%. Break-even stock price is $40.65 here. + +2. IV is fairly moderate here and selling puts wouldn't be the most efficient. I might buy some shares instead and look to start taking profits at the $50 level. +I lost about 10% last week, biggest deficit since the market correction back in the last week of January. It has me feeling a little worried and discouraged, I know many says it a bullish time for the market. However, As the market has been on a down slide the last few weeks, in the midst of this trade war stuff. I'm I over reacting If I completely sell my portfolio until this storm pass? +So last week we had some of the worst days we have seen on the markets since COVID hit. Reddit was full of panic sellers, in-experienced traders and a sea of red on every ticker. + +I was reading so many comments about the market going down another 10%- 15% i read you should have 50% of your money in cash blah blah blah - the fact is no one knows what the 'market is going to do' + +&#x200B; + +today is one of the best days in the past 12 months if you were decided to continued with the 'wait and see' approach you would of missed out on the massive green wave. + +&#x200B; + +always remember “it's not about timing the market, but about time in the market” + +&#x200B; + +I hope you all had a great day on the market God bless! +[Bloomberg breaking news](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-20/paypal-weighs-purchase-of-social-media-firm-pinterest): + +>PayPal Holdings Inc. is exploring an acquisition of social media company Pinterest Inc., people with knowledge of the matter said, Bloomberg News reports. + +>San Jose, California-based PayPal has recently approached Pinterest about a potential deal, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. The companies have discussed a potential price of around $70 a share, which would value Pinterest at roughly $39 billion, one of the people said. + +Some interesting questions: + +* What is the potential synergy between these two companies? +* What is your price target for Pinterest? (Disclosure I'm a bagholder at $75). +* This seems clearly like a planned leak. What is this leak trying to achieve? +* Are there better companies for acquisition of Pinterest? +* What is your long term view of Pinterest? +Edit1: As u/BohemianConch pointed out, the test was supposed to be conducted back in 2020, but it was pushed to 2021 due to corona, which explains the weird intervals. + +Edit2: Looking at the 2018 stress test, the stress exerted on the system seems to have increased 30-50% across the different test parameters from the last test. + +So, I work in a large european bank. Today I saw a very interesting article on our internal site (I cannot provide a link for obvious reasons). + +This article explained the EBA stress test that went down a few days ago. + +The stress test tested to see how the banks would handle a 30% drop in the housing market, negative GDP growth and increasing unemployment and a pretty modest inflation (If you ask me 2.4% over 3 years sounds low compared to the 6.12% the americans aim for over 3 years.) [https://www.eba.europa.eu/sites/default/documents/files/document\_library/Risk%20Analysis%20and%20Data/EU-wide%20Stress%20Testing/2021/1017758/EBA-2021.3792-2021-EU-wide-stress-test-infographics-reports.png](https://www.eba.europa.eu/sites/default/documents/files/document_library/Risk%20Analysis%20and%20Data/EU-wide%20Stress%20Testing/2021/1017758/EBA-2021.3792-2021-EU-wide-stress-test-infographics-reports.png) + +~~As far as I can see, the previous tests has been conducted with 2 year intervals, on even years.~~ + +~~This begs the question, why are we testing now?~~ See Edit1. + +I havn't looked at the results of the tests, Il leave up to the fractal wrinkle brains. + +All information on the test can be found here. [https://www.eba.europa.eu/risk-analysis-and-data/eu-wide-stress-testing](https://www.eba.europa.eu/risk-analysis-and-data/eu-wide-stress-testing) +I’m looking for a way to determine if a security is going to bounce on VWAP or go through it. Is there any good indicators to help me determine this outcome? +Hi Everyone, I’m very new to trading and was considering taking a course to learn more about day trading. It’s $400 through Inevitrade, includes quite a bit, and there are great reviews. I just wanted to see if anyone had any insight on whether this (or any) course would be worth it for a beginner getting into day trading? Any advice greatly appreciated! +I've been trying to figure out technical ways to hold on to my running trades rather than just exiting at my usual 1:3 Risk:Reward but I've not managed to find a "one size fits all" solution. I've tried a 1R trailing stop loss and a couple of EMA following solutions to some success but they both require very specific market conditions to extract the most profits from the runners. + +How do you guys extract the most profits from your runners? +Mods, can we please add a rule to stop people postings about their holdings and worth? This sub has recently been full of people “celebrating” reaching 1ETH. I get that they’re happy, but it’s absolutely bad for people to be posting their holdings. +I was speaking with a customer service rep about one of my cards through chase, and it was mentioned by her that as of yesterday Chase will no longer be allowing credit card purchases for Coinbase. I've long since moved away from Coinbase, but I'm sure there are still some of you here that use it, and I'm sure the ones that do know about the whole cash advance thing, but I guess Chase just won't be allowing credit card purchases at all anymore. + +Edit: I guess it's not just coinbase, and bank of america is doing this too. Both them and Chase have banned CC purchases from most, if not all well known crypto trading platforms. + +https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.slashgear.com/bitcoin-buys-banned-by-jpmorgan-bank-of-america-02517905/amp/ +We all know that the last bull run let the masses get a slight taste of crypto, and we all know what will happen when ETH will start releasing 'killer daps', Proof of Stake, etc. (I am very confident that the next run will be led by ETH). But what are your predictions / expectations for the price at the end of the year? + +My take on this is ~1.2k at the end of the summer with another big hype from october-feb (depending on updates) to the 4k zone. Of course this can go ballistic and climb to 8-9k, or be slower and stay around 1-1.5k. + +thoughts / predictions and explain why? +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. + +Currently we see a lot of money printing and high costs for basic economic goods and services e.g. oil, wood, shipping costs etc. + +Are these symptoms temporary or do you think the whole economy has a structural problem, which may lead to a lasting inflation and a stock market crash ? + +Do you think inflation fear is inflated 😉? +Hi there, first time posting here. After my grandparents passed, we found a collection of framed bonds and I have no idea what we do with these. Heres all the pictures https://imgur.com/a/q4Zwt and we're in Georgia if that matters. +#To be ignorant of inflation is to suffer its evils. + +[Inflation, explained: Why prices keep going up and who's to blame](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/09/economy/what-is-inflation-and-whos-to-blame/index.html). + +It starts off by confusing you and making you feel stupid at the same time by saying *“Inflation is, paradoxically, both incredibly simple to understand and absurdly complicated.”* If you’ve been in the crypto-space for any decent amount of time you might have come to better understand inflation than the average Joe. + +*“Inflation, however, occurs when the average price of virtually everything consumers buy goes up. Food, houses, cars, clothes, toys, etc…..It's not a bad thing.”* IT’S NOT A BAD THING? ARE YOU JOKING?! INFLATION IS A GLOBAL EXISTENTIAL CRISIS! People justify it by saying wages themselves will rise with inflation, but we all know the federal minimum wage has remained $7.25 since 2009, and that’s bare dollars not inflation calculated. + +*“How'd we get here? - Blame the pandemic.”* NO, you governmental and bank ass kissing reporters, we got here because the money system is broken and everyone thinks Keynesian economics is the one and only way to money. Inflation erodes purchasing power and causes a spending urge which tends to boost inflation in turn! A truly catastrophic feedback loop. + +*“And here's where Econ 101 merges a bit with Psych 101. There's a behavioral economics aspect to inflation….prices go up …consumers…buy more goods”* Oh wait so it’s our fault for spending and such? Bastards. This narrative tries to reverses cause-and-effect relationships and indicts the victims (us) for perpetrating the crime all while exculpating the monetary authorities who willfully and openly PRINT MONEY BBBBRRRRRRRRR. + +People say 2% annual inflation is healthy economic growth, but The Consumer Price Index (*that has a whole popurri its own issues*) is 6.8% and The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (*also imperfect*) is 5.7%; the highest it has been in 30 years. I know the real rate isn’t really 15% even while using the pre-1980 methodology, but it’s not what they tell us it is, probably around 10%, and that should scare people! + +*“Take cars, for example.”* No, let’s not take cars, no one really cares about cars but Elon. 91.3% of US households have access to at least one vehicle – 88% own a car – that’s the second highest country in terms of ownership. They go on to talk about supply chains and microchips and how they effects cars, two economic but non-personally related issue that the average person doesn’t give a shit about. No one had a personal computer in 1970 but they’re using the same metrics to calculate CPU inflation in the same basket?? + +You know what we do care about? That my normal grocery load cost $50 now not $43 like they did last year and that it is probably up from the year before. + +Inflation reduces the purchasing power of your income and your assets. The one plus side might be that it reduces purchasing power required to pay a mortgage; but only 65% of Americans have one of those. You can be happy gas prices are still between $2-3 but don’t blame the current administration when it hits $3.5, blame the U.S. Department of the Treasury and The Federal Reserve System, blame the government, and whatever you do, **DON’T EVER BLAME YOURSELVES!** +So this is more than I'd usually share but here's my P/L for this year (as of May 1 market open). I'm looking for a benchmark if anyone can give any context as to the success of the last 2 months in Theta. I hear a lot of different views about what is or isn't sustainable. I'm new here and have never BOUGHT options (because why give someone my money). I'll be running a PMCC in the coming weeks to try out the strategy. If you have suggestions of what would be a good company to start this on, I'd like that. + +(Scroll down for my P/L or read on for utter ramblings) + +I've managed to realize profits over the last couple of weeks because, after not being assigned any stock since starting the strategy (and wanting to actually own some stock), I bought APPL, DKNG, RKT, CRSR and BB just before the market took a stumble. I sold covered calls for two weeks and made a decent amount even though the stocks were bleeding. I'm confident that these stocks will bounce back and, of course, it's reduced my cost basis. + +The last couple of weeks have taught me that if you love the underlying stock, you can simply use it to make premium regardless of its current price moves. AAPL, for example, can do whatever it likes, I'll simply use the dips to collect premium and be confident that it will one day return to ATHs. + +Unrealized losses shown here are all the underlying stock retreat. I also fucked up on Nokia and originally on BB – which I have to sell to sell CCs on whilst holding these lovely bags (I shan't be chasing my greed any more, GME can do whatever it likes, I wish anyone with skin in the game well, but for me, lesson learned). LAZR... I messed up some very basic arithmetic. An incredibly stupid decision I made because the stock was moving fast and I was trying to chase some profits. Fuck that, I don't do it any more. For example, right now I'm doing this rather than looking at my portfolio as the stocks go mad after two weeks of the downturn. THERE WILL ALWAYS BE OPPORTUNITY has become my mantra. + +I'm looking forward to building a larger APPL position. Mother Kathy disagrees, but when others zig, I try to zag (aside from that short squeeze malarkey). + +In terms of taking profits, I don't hang about. I make judgement calls and if I see a 30% profit after 1 day, I yank it off the table. I set sell triggers at 50% regardless unless I'm selling a weekly. + +I tend to stick to monthly options because the premiums are good and when the stocks swing, they react in the same way as weeklies. + +I keep my buying power at 50% or thereabout. It's a tolerance I'm happy with. + +My realized P/L performance is 17.87% + +My actual P/L as of right now is 11.13% (the one that really counts) + +https://preview.redd.it/0rlf2h81nfk61.png?width=867&format=png&auto=webp&s=38a3d3135e4e0b2a02931950fa42971c3bbd5ba0 + +Finally, thank you to a great community. +I've been using Tradingdiary Pro, which I've found quite nice and have paid for in the past. However, I've found a screenshotting helper service being installed by it, which very well could be legit, but it scared the hell out of me. + +I would love some automatic import of my trades from TOS, and a very clear view of the costbasis. In fact, after a few turns of the wheel, I'd like to know easily where I stand with my current costbase. + +I can build my own excel, but I thought of checking if there was some dominant solution that everyone has gravitated towards first! +Sorry for the noob question, Im primarily a buy and hold investor and was looking to do some simple selling puts and selling CCs strategies for a little more return. + +Im going to do far OTM with a .10-.15 delta and 30-45 DTE on SPY and QQQ + +**Selling Puts** + +For selling puts say the current price is $100. I sell a put at $80 strike. The price drops to $75 and I get assigned. + +I "lost" $500? But the thing is, as a buy and hold investor I dont try to time the market and wouldnt have bought at the bottom of the market at $75 anyway. + +Im bullish on both SPY and QQQ, and even though I paid $80 for a $75 stock, I think in the long run it will go up, so what did I lose really? + +**Selling CCs** + +Same thing for selling CCs. say current price is $100. I sell a CC at $110 strike and price goes up to $115. I "lost" $500 again. + + Im a buy and hold investor and dont try to sell at the peaks. Stocks go up and down all the time. I wouldnt have sold at the peak anyway and just held as it went down again. So did I actually "lose" anything? + +&#x200B; + +This seems like a good strategy instead of just a mindless DCA every week. Am I missing something? +Just looking to compile a list in no particular order of what YT content people enjoy the most, is most educational, etc. Always looking to expand my learning, with good content. + +1) in the money - started here, but been gone for a bit +2) Rockwell trading - loads of good information - mark and Markus - wheel information +3) tech conversations - bite size, but not deep enough for me +5) tastytrade including mike and his whiteboard. + +Anyone else that’s put out good consistent content that I should check out? +On a presumably red day like today, where TOS analysis is lowering the probability of my shorts expiring even close to ITM, does anyone roll down a strike or two to get extra credit? Or am I just being impatient? 36 DTE on several positions (short side) and \~127 DTE on my longs. + +Thanks! +I own 50 shares of meta and thinking of making it a 100 to sell CC. I am interested in holding it long term, but won't be too sad to lose the shares. I checked the option calculator, and let's say i sell the 19 August option with strike price of 215$, the premium i get is 200$~. +Is this everything to it ? +Would be my first time dealing with options. +[Most anticipated earnings August 3rd - August 7th](https://imgur.com/a/Z7C5j2x) + +&#x200B; + +[Google Sheet with list of all companies earnings this week](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EuA7Q64u6Lp8g7dzfIRz7TWNa9MXdm6U6oA-qHa8tSw/edit?usp=sharing) + +&#x200B; + +Google sheet is posted with all of the companies separated by day currently. I also added the name of the company on there per request in the comments. I will be working on filling in the details on all of the companies over the weekend. + +For those who haven't seen last weeks post - The google sheet will have: Name, Ticker, Market Cap, earnings date, time, price as of this weekend, IV using ToS, Weekly options yes or no, and sector. I fill in the information for all companies with over 1Bn market cap. + +Let me know if there's anything else to add or change around. + +&#x200B; + +Thank you! +Hi, + +As a guidance, aside of reasonements on the spx chart looking at particular area or support and resistance and implementing the news and the calendar (i.e. thursday CPI), I also try to get an idea of the price range with the usual formula + +Range=VIX/16 * square root (number of trading days, wich is 5 mon to friday). +That woul be roughly 1 standard deviation so 68% probability. +I have done some backtesting on weekly spx charts and some regression studies finding that using the first vix and spx reading of the week and using for a credit spread like IC or DD + + Range x 1,2 for the upper limit +Range x 1,4 for the lower limit + +You are right on 90% of time to catch the range. + + +Given that on short trades like weeklies volatility changes really on a dailiy basis and there are weeks like FOMC or CPI where this model could be less accurate. + +I was then thinking we can use daily IV from expirations of daily options. + +For nex week on spx (data from friday, may change monday) +11/07 IV 19.01 +11/08 IV 21.55 +11/09 IV 23.88 +11/10 IV 30.85 (CPI day) +11/11 IV 30.27 + +Seems data may suggest market quieter till thursday and then the usual big move up or down, although put/call ratio seems to favour puts + +Statistically would it make sense calculate single day ranges and multiply each by the following, using the product limit principle? + +So it would be till thursday for 4 days + +(19.01/16) x (21.55/16) x(23.88/16) * (30.85/16) + +Which come back 4.6% and that should be 68% so a standard deviation. + +Does it make matematically/statistically/financially any sense? +There are a ton of tools out there. Gazillions? + +But there are a few I actually pay for, even if I don't use them every day. I'll list what I'm paying for and why, and would love to know what you are paying for and why. No referral codes please. :) + +# Subscriptions + +These are services I pay a subscription on because of their value to me. + +**OptionStrat**$14.99/mo + +Why: I like being able to easily see POP and a long option price history. Secondarily, I use the tool so much to build trades that I feel compelled to subscribe to simply keep the tool alive. + +edit: I also use Analyze in TOS, but OptionStrat is really fast for building trades out vs TOS. + +**Barchart**$29.95/mo + +I have custom filters in the Stock and ETF screeners I use exclusively for bargain hunting. I don't use it for anything else really. But it's screeners are really good (to me). I could move this over to TOS, and I do have screeners there, but I just haven't gotten around to it. + +# Fee-driven Services + +These are fees I pay because of the value they provide me. + +**TDA** + +Not the cheapest, but the fees are reasonable. The margin interest rate is high, but I don't dip into a position on margin too often. TDA is def not a free broker though. + +**Coinbase**(Not options related.) + +Their fees for recurring purchases are REALLY HIGH.. around 2-4% depending. I have used Coinbase Pro in the past, but the automated/recurring buy feature in Coinbase is great and worth it. If I had to log into Coinbase Pro, Kraken, whatever, every week to buy, I'd forget half the time. (Would love input on another reputable crypto company that has a lower cost RECURRING purchase feature.) + +# Notable Mentions + +**Udemy & Kindle**Fee based - usually $20-$60 + +Most of what I've learned has been via books and Udemy. What I like about Udemy is that they "pre-organize" all the material for me via the course. I'm super busy. Wading through YouTube is low-cost, high-time whereas, comparatively, Udemy is high-cost, low-time. Whichever floats your boat, but I want things handed to me in an organized fashion so I can learn efficiently. + +**Finviz**Free tier + +Sometimes I think about paying for Finviz, but mostly because their ads are SO AGGRESIVE. But then I decide to NOT subscribe because their ads are SO AGGRESIVE. Holy smokes. Finviz is incredible but their marketing/platform team was clearly hired from MySpace. + +Why NOT: I don't use it enough to warrant a subscription. + +**M1**No fee. + +I have an automatic withdraw setup from my trading account to M1 every week. It goes to a taxable "buy-and-hold" account there and also funds my HF-based Roth there. Love M1 for buy-and-hold (where it is strong). Would never try to use it for trading, because it would be a trainwreck for that. + +Why not: They just don't charge fees. + +**Personal Capital**No fee. + +It's a nice, comprehensive net worth tool. Drives me crazy that it struggles to keep a lot of services updated, esp since it uses Plaid for the connections which is usually pretty good. + +Why not: They just don't charge fees. + +**MarketWatch**No fee. + +I have this on my phone. Love the market updates. Helps me stay aware of the situation. I find their Notifications to be pretty good and relevant. + +Why not: I get the sense that the fee-tiers are more geared for people that invest in stocks, looking for great deals. I do that somewhat, but the bulk of my holdings are things like VT. + +**TradingView**Free tier right now. I used to pay. + +I used this extensively before I forced myself to learn charting in TOS. TV is an incredible tool and the paid version allowed me to build out multiple "profiles" that's useful to map to different trading accounts I have. + +I still have a free account and use the app on my phone if I'm curious about something. Easier for charting on the phone than the TOS app. (Side note: I almost NEVER trade on my phone. Best way for me to avoid FOMO/impulse buys. I do sometimes buy something I want to hold.) + +Why not: I moved to TOS charting. + +**Greenlight Debit Card for Kids**$7.98/mo + +There is a free version that works just fine as a "debit card for kids" that I love. However, Greenlight+ Invest allows you to setup a trading account for your children. I put in $50/mo into the Invest module for my oldest and his gains are better than mine. He's a gamer and is up 33.13% this year. He's up 64% on NVDA, 44% on WK, 53% on AMD, etc. He's heavily concentrated in tech, which is high risk, but I'll let him learn that lesson on his own. (Or not -- depending on whether tech keeps doing tech.) + +Why: Having my oldest learn how to invest is worth $8/mo. +**TLDR:** + +**-More accurate to say 3m portfolio than 750k because if puts were assigned, I would have had to transfer 2.6m to the account. Didn't have to, so that 2.6m was able to stay in place earning about 6% so received put premium in addition to this.** + +**- Wheel under performed buy-and-hold (obviously given the historic bull market) I'm using the comparison where the wheel made $589k vs buying the underlying without options making $875k** + +&#x200B; + +Hi all, so I [posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/lg75cf/first_year_wheeling_390k_in_premiums_collected/) a little hastily last time so I thought I'd post again with a little more insight and context. Got some suggestions or some questions I thought were interesting to answer so I thought I'd make a new post. Some of this is only tangentially related to that strategy, but I think provides context to the positions that hopefully minimise the chance of misrepresenting. Some slight changes in some numbers but after review this should be more accurate than the previous post. + +**Purpose:** + +I'm trying to look back at the choice to wheel a year ago and compare it to my default position of just buying and holding my portfolio. Obviously it's hard to know what i WOULD have done throughout the year, so simplifying assumptions need to be made. I have a lot of things going on in my portfolios and I tried to isolate out wheel trades. There are other things in there, spreads, diagonals, straight up yolo calls... I tried to excluding by writing a filter on my trade log. I didn't consciously track my CC / CSP combo through the year, this is a look back. + +**How much did I need to secure the calls and puts I was selling?** + +https://preview.redd.it/xkw9jafpxog61.png?width=1144&format=png&auto=webp&s=476927aa7defc28e149ea14a4a77022dd45a27ea + +So as you can see, some important context relative to the last post. I stated I started with a portfolio of about 750,000, I just looked back on detail and on March 16 the portfolio was actually 813k. + +Either way, you can see for the first few days of selling covered calls, I was just dipping my toes into the water not selling calls on that entire portfolio. (Again this was that first AMZN cc that ended up ITM. Yes I did roll it) + +What happened March 27? I decided to sell a bunch of puts on SPY. Clearly, there isn't enough cash in the 813k to secure these puts as I would need 2.175m to pay for them if assigned. Here's where the further context is required. + +I actually have a large levered fixed income position outside of this 813k portfolio, that's just my Interactive Brokers account for equities. The reason its levered is because I was able to invest in investment grade bonds yielding (at the time) 4% while borrowing at about 1.5%. Rates have gone down and the position had shifted to bond yields of 2% and a borrowing cost of 0.15%. Only because of this spread was I willing to allocate so highly in fixed income, but I DID want to get out of the position and move to equities to buy the dip. Rather than doing so outright and selling the bonds and buying the equities, I decided to sell "C"SPs. If it looked like I would be assigned, I would begin the process of selling the bonds and moving to equities. + +I wouldn't have been able to get that premium on CSPs if I honestly restricted myself to that 813k IB account. + +Throughout the summer and fall I gave up on this deciding that the carry of the bond position was not bad, though I did up my covered call selling. I think at the time I was feeling a bearish. I can't remember quite so clearly but I remember conflicted by negative earnings and jobs and a roaring market. + +Around the time of the election till now I've gotten back to selling a lot of puts, desiring to move away from my bond position. Now the premiums on these weren't high despite the high required cash, they were mostly low vol ETFs and were meant to force my hand into re-allocating away from fixed income. You could obviously generate similar premiums with a much smaller security with higher vol. + +So for context, the average required total assets to be fully secured in all the calls / puts I sold was about $**1,389,820** + +**1.** **How much gain would I have if I kept my portfolio from March 16, 2020 till today?** + +Obviously there's a lot of what-ifs here, but if I did, it would have gone from $813,961 to $1,513,072. A gain of **$699,111.10.** If we scaled this to the 1,389,820 security size, this would be a gain of **$1,193,761.** Note, at the time, this extra cash was earning, so net the foregone earnings if all allocated to my March 16 portfolio would be **$1,159,759** + +**2. What was the gain from capital appreciation + premiums of wheeling?** + +This is pretty hard to say given how mixed up the positions are in the account. Wheel premiums are easy. I collected a total of **$389,895**. The capital gains on the stocks I wheeled (an approximation) were **$199,192.** This brings the total gain to **$589,087.** Keep in mind this includes selling CSPs on a security outside of the 813k account, a much larger security of about 2m. Also, not all stocks in my 813k portfolio had CCs sold on them. So not apples to apples. + +**3.** **How much would I have gained if instead of CC, I bought and held the stock for the period of the CC and instead of CSP, I bought the stock with the cash required to fully secure the put?** + +This is my attempt to have as comparable a set of returns to the wheel in 2. The gains are time-matched for when the options were valid and losses in that period are also included. + +Capital gains on the stocks covered calls were sold on would have amounted to **$228,112** + +Capital gains on the stocks the puts were sold on (including the big ETF puts) would have amounted to: **$680,884.** + +*(Note: To be honest, I'm not sure if I would have held all these positions, notably TSLA which I always thought was just too expensive, but was fine selling puts on. So there is that level of overstatement here, but I'm not going to go through each trade and try and recall my mental state at the time. That's a pretty small component though. Most of that premium is SPY and IJS and AMZN which I'm totally fine to own)* + +This totals **$908,996.** To estimate what base this would have been on, the peak amount required to secure the CSP and the CC would have been about April 17, 2020 where I needed 544,425 in stocks to secure my CC and 2,626,550 in "cash" to secure the puts for a total of **3,170,975.** Keep in mind this wasn't fully "invested" the whole way through as early July I had only $267,501 in stocks underlying the covered calls and virtually no puts. + +There would be opportunity cost to this though. In option 1 and 2, I was able to maintain my bond position which after leverage was a 5.7% return on cash. (At inception this was a return of about 11%, but since rates have gone down it's less so. Hence my returning desire to exit this position) Using this rate against the cash amount when drawn (I didn't have 3.17m required in cash at all times to secure puts, note the summer when I actually had no CSPs), I estimate an opportunity cost here of about **-$33,957.** So the "buy-and-hold" number to compare against wheeling in option 2 is **$875,039** + +**Concluding Thoughts:** + +Water is wet. Obviously wheeling under-performs buy-and-hold in a historical bull market. How most platforms operate though, all you see is your P/L and it can be hard to see the opportunity cost of your choice of action and delude yourself into thinking that you're making the best decisions. + +Had I known the market trajectory, obviously I wouldn't have sold calls / such high delta calls. I could have sold more puts, but actually, just cashing out the bonds and going all in on equities would have yielded more. Hindsight is 2020. I do like the volatility dampening effects of having such a high fixed income component though, so I wonder if the trade off would have been worth it or if selling puts while maintaining the fixed income was the best risk adjusted strategy. I know wheeling should itself smooth volatility, but there isn't such an easy way for me to check this based on my trade log across the accounts. + +I just trying to recollect my mental state, most of the CC strikes were about 8-10% above market price with about 32 days to expiry. I remember thinking "wow. if it goes up 10% in a month, I should already be happy". And to be honest, my capped gains weren't that bad. + +Obviously more can be done here and to reiterate, I'm trying to get stable returns with lower volatility. I'm currently not drawing a salary working on a start-up so reducing my portfolio risk is something I feel I should look more into. Some suggestions in my previous post include using the wheel to lever further and I'm not sure I want to do that just to juice return. At this stage, I'm just trying to avoid ruin. My benchmark is buy and hold and if there is something out there that long run can be low maintenance and beat 8% a year with lower volatility, then I'm down to listen. This was my experiment with wheeling and as mentioned, there are a lot of other things I'm trying like levered fixed income etc. + +With regards to my total performance in 2020, it wasn't that great. Crypto was good, fixed income was stable and chugging a long, equities were decent (I rode equities down in early in the year so didn't just get in at the bottom), but I had a bad speculative trade on futures that negated most of that good stuff early in the year. It made me realize that at this point, I'm not trying to moon with a big bet, I'm just trying to avoid ruin and grow as stably as possible. My risks should be taken with my business. +I'm going to be honest I'm not a genius when it comes to picking and timing trades. There seem to be alot of premium buyers who seem genuinely talented at buying calls at the right time and the right place before some major news event propels a stock into the stratosphere. + +But the nice thing about thetagang is you dont need to be a genius. Just pick a stock with a solid business, appropriate amounts of IV and with the assumption that IV will decline and you've got yourself a good pick. Furthermore when I look at the huge gains in WORK I don't need to sweat the fact that I can't make money on it. After all assuming that the new price remains semi-stable or reverts downward by around 5%-8% I can still set puts on it as long as they are long dated enough and I can take advantage of the IV collapsing as the news buzz fades and WORK returns to a new normal. + +Of course this doesn't work for every meme stock and there's alots of ifs, ands and buts I could put here as caveats. For starters I feel like you should only do this with FOMO from a legitimate buisness event like a merger or increase sales and you got to make sure that your date of expiry is within an earning season. But the nice thing is you can make your strikes small enough and diversify your portfolio enough that as long as you are making enough plays you aren't going to blow up your account. +I've been selling weekly calls on Monday/Tuesday, and making a decent premium. (A heartfelt thanks to this group!) Some of my calls will go down to $0.00 by Thursday. Is there a trick to close these worthless calls instead of waiting until expiry on Friday? +**Should you buy Apple stock or has the company run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Apple in the next years? Read until the end as I reveal my price target for Apple and also what I think will happen in the next couple of days, weeks & months!** + +**\~ Warning! Very Very Long Post\~** + +Hello everyone! So, let’s go over some of the latest news on Apple before moving on to some fundamental and technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years. + +So, let’s start with the [news](https://postimg.cc/Xrkwk6rP) that Apple will cut the App Store commission in half for small app developers starting in the next days, this will affect developers who earn less than $1M annually from the App Store Sales. This is likely to lead to a small decline in commission revenues for Apple as around 98% of the app developers will qualify for this tax reduction from 30% to 15%, but all these small developers only contribute to about 5% of the estimated $50B in annual revenues from the App Store, so that would be only a $1.25B loss for the company, that is less than half a % of the company’s total net sales in the last fiscal year. + +Also, these changes may lead to a potential long-term revenue boost, as it is likely this will lead to an increasing creation of apps which will generate more commissions in return. + +Alongside this we also saw the company releasing the new MacBook’s with their first in-house [chip](https://postimg.cc/vc39NF7x), which promises faster video and imaging processing [times](https://postimg.cc/CR5Fmj5V), with both [CPU](https://postimg.cc/Y4yLdrMd) and [GPU](https://postimg.cc/xJz8gLsd) performance up to 2 times faster than the latest PC laptop chip using just a fraction of the power consumption, with both of the macbooks promising big improvements in [battery](https://postimg.cc/1fp6y1rz) life. Apple is also [expected](https://postimg.cc/GHrtJ8vc) to roll out even more in-house chips in future products, as they have started the 2-year breakup with Intel chips. + +We also saw Morgan Stanley [upgrading](https://postimg.cc/bZ5qMsSS) their base case to $191 at the end of November, as they have cited record lead times, supply chain forecasts and carriers demand as they expect that the company will sell around 270M iPhone in fiscal year 2021, that’s 50M more than the consensus and almost 30M more than the previous estimate of Morgan Stanley, with an average selling price of 842$, 9% more than the base case, as people tend to chose the more expensive and high tech versions of the lineup in this new 5G cycle. + +The 5G super-cycle, which I believe is on the way, and will continue in the next years, as 5G become more available worldwide, could still be the biggest thing coming right away for the company with 5G smartphones [expected](https://postimg.cc/LJptP88f) to surpass 4G sales by 2024, with the average sale price of the 5G phones also coming down, helping them become more popular. This will also be helped by the recent entry to the Indian [market](https://postimg.cc/7fV6BHNS), as India will probably become the world biggest country in the next decade, this could be a huge opportunity for Apple to start and take away market-share from their competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi which have the biggest market shares right now. + +They also [released](https://postimg.cc/PpWhPy31) an update iPad Pro and an all-new iPad Air in September which will also boost sales in this work-from-home environment that will keep the demand very high for this kind of products, just like the Macs. Alongside the increasing demand from the Wearables, Home & Accessories that include Air Pods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and many more products. + +But the biggest reasons I believe Apple is poised for continued growth, is primarily due to its services business, as they start to offer more and more services like the Apple ONE [BUNDLE](https://postimg.cc/4777MD3s), which include up to 6 services from (Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, the new Apple Fitness+ and the iCloud service) for a pretty reasonable price in my opinion [starting](https://postimg.cc/BLkDnqzj) from 15$ up to 30$/month, this could be a great option for families and even individuals who use their services a lot. + +The latest services, [Fitness+](https://postimg.cc/cKV4KrsG) just launched in the past days, and is a direct competitor to the likes of Peloton, as the service is available on the iPhone, iPad or even Apple TV. This also makes consumers buy the Apple Watch which syncs to the other devices to show you different information. The Fitness+ app just on its own is 8$/month or 80$/year which is less expensive than Peloton subscription which charges 13$ or even traditional gyms like Planet Fitness at 10$/month. + +I think this will be the fastest growing sector for the company, as this aligns with the new macro trends, as the world is moving more and more to a digital approach to almost everything as consumer preferences, with more & more younger people reaching the point in life when they use these services start to align to this increasing digital approach. + +We also shouldn’t forget the Apple Card & Apple Pay service among many others which also seem to gain from the move to digital & contactless payments, as this has been accelerated due to the current situation in the past year. + +And one last piece of [news](https://postimg.cc/k6BKCVTr), and the most recent one, is that Apple may have fast-tracked the Titan project. The Titan project is targeting a 2024 or 2025 push to develop an electric vehicle with advanced battery technologies, that will deliver significant increases in range at much lower costs than the current technologies while also offering self-driving capabilities. + +It’s reported they will not use the same technology as Tesla Full-Self-Driving feature, but will use LIDAR sensors, similar to those that we can find in the latest iPhone 12 PRO. + +I think Apple can go 2 ways with this project, they can either use the huge amount of cash the company has to buy another car-maker like Ford, GM or any other car manufacturer expect Tesla and Toyota which do have a big market cap, so that they can fast-track the potential manufacturing of cars, or they can enter into a partnership with big companies like Tesla, Volkswagen or any other car marker to either produce cars or license their technology to this other car-makers which would ultimately and probably have higher margin-returns than the effective manufacturing of cars. Apple’s current overall [gross margins](https://postimg.cc/ykv1mfVP) stand at 38% vs the 15% average of the world top 10 automakers by market cap, which is significantly lower. + +But this Apple Car thing is so far out, and there are so many unknowns, I will not try to predict anything related to this until there is more clarity on the subject. + +And last, before moving on to some predictions, here are some of the highlights that we heard from the latest investors conference meeting, as the CEO, Tim Cook [expressed](https://postimg.cc/TyhpLzgg) optimism ahead with the launch of many new products and services, especially the Home Pod Mini and the new 5G iPhones, as these new iPhones include new LIDAR scanners that greatly improve the camera capabilities, as the iPhone as seen very positive reviews. We also saw the Senior VP and CFO, Luca Maestri give us great [outlook](https://postimg.cc/DWDmqxPD) for the company as they expect the installed devices base to continue to growth despite already being at an all-time high as they have over 585M paid subscriptions on their platforms and expect this to surpass 600M by the end of 2020. + +I also researched and found what products we can see in the near future, with the first half of [2021](https://postimg.cc/jCBQsXVM) bringing new iMacs, the AirPods3 and the iPad Pro, while in the [FALL](https://postimg.cc/8jVJKngg) event we will probably get the new iPhone 13 alongside the iPhone SE PLUS and the Watch Series 7 with more products coming [later](https://postimg.cc/GHc3s01t) in 2021 or that don’t have an estimated release date like the Air Pods Pro, the Air Tags and the iPad Mini 6. + +So, before even starting, you should know that I am bull on Apple but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below. + +I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the [company](https://postimg.cc/JHRDpPGQ), the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research. + +This are my 2025 projections for Apple, let’s take a closer look at them, each on their own. + +So, in term of revenues, Apple has 5 big sources of income, which saw an overall increase of 6% despite lagging sales in the iPhone. The biggest revenue is by far the iPhone right now with over $137B in revenue in the fiscal year ending in September. I expect to see the iPhone sales increasing in the next years, especially in 2021, with the new 5G iPhone creating a super-cycle for the [company](https://postimg.cc/XGfBKT7J), as most iPhone users, including myself here, as I will upgrade from my iPhone X, will switch to this new product. The iPhone sales have decreased in the last couple of years by 14% and 3% as a result of the product not having big improvements, as well as iPhone usually starting to last longer than previous models, so I expect to see a 12% increase in sales next year and a gradual decrease in the growth of sales as more people upgrade, ending with just a 5% growth in iPhone [sales](https://postimg.cc/V0wfRpr7) in 2025. + +The next revenues stream is from the Mac, which has seen an increase in the past 2years, with revenues topping $28B this year after the huge demand from the work from home consumers. I [expect](https://postimg.cc/1405tm2b) this trend to continue as they plan to continue to launch better products and I can see the company having a similar growth next year before starting to decline slightly until 2025, also ending with a 5% growth. + +The iPad is currently the smallest revenue stream for Apple but has also seen an increase in demand in the past 2 years with a 13% average increase in revenues. I also expect the iPad to continue to grow in the next couple of years, especially with the learn-from-home environment for kids, and even after this period ends, the transformation for learning will implicate more digital usage. I [expect](https://postimg.cc/5XKtVsT0) the iPad to see some similar growth to the Macs, especially with the latest generation also bringing a new iPad air to the market. + +The 4th revenue stream and the fastest growing in the past 2 years, with an average growth of 33% are the wearables, home & accessories revenues. This have topped $30B this year, as Apple has also just launched the Apple Watch series 6 and also feature other great products like Apple TV, the Air Pods the Home Pod and the Home Pod mini alongside other third-party accessories. + +I gave this [revenue](https://postimg.cc/v4C4JQ4T) stream a growth of 20% starting next year with a gradual decrease to around 8% by 2025, as I believe this will become more & more popular as they start to offer more vertical integration. + +And last, but by no means least, the revenue stream that I expect to grow the most and the fastest is the revenue from the services that Apple offers. This includes revenues from Apple Care, Advertising, Cloud Services, Payment Services like Apple Card & Apple Pay and of course the digital content which includes fees from the App Store alongside subscription-based income including the new Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ alongside the already know Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and hopefully I don’t forget any others. + +So, I [expect](https://postimg.cc/svV7mDWR) this to become the clear 2nd biggest revenue stream for Apple by 2025, as I expect this to grow more than 20% next year, mainly due to the Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ followed up by a slightly decreasing growth, ending with a 10% increase in revenues in 2025. + +I think this are fairly conservative base case scenarios for the revenues, as I expect them to continue to increase the [other](https://postimg.cc/1VFFgkxJ) revenue streams and not have such a large percentage of the revenues coming from the iPhone sales as you can see in this chart. + +In terms of expenses, I pretty much kept the same margins as in previous years, with a 68% expense ratio on product sales \[ [iPhone](https://postimg.cc/JDZ7jMnD) / [iPad](https://postimg.cc/Wd14CB9C) / [Mac](https://postimg.cc/q6GkZw2p) / [WHA](https://postimg.cc/211q9q8g) \] and 35% expense ratio on [SERVICES](https://postimg.cc/8sdLLrjH), as this are way more lucrative. + +In the past 3 years, the products [gross margin](https://postimg.cc/ykv1mfVP) was 32.7%, so I actually imply bigger expenses for the manufacturing and sales of products, as this is mostly impacted by the company’s supplier’s ability to make up for and demand, while for the services revenue, the gross margins for the last 3 years has been 63.5% on average, but I expect this to be more in-line with the 66% margin in this past year. So, if services manage to grow to about half the revenues from the iPhone, this will effectively double the gross revenues, as every buck gained in the service revenues account for 2$ in the product sales. + +So, I expect the total [revenues](https://postimg.cc/sMjByQ2n) for Apple to increase from $274B in 2020 to over $440B by 2025, increasing by approximately 10%/year, while I will keep the expense ratio pretty much in-line and have them increasing by 11%/year, this would bring the total gross income for Apple to $177B, increasing mainly due to the services revenues as I said earlier. This growth is just above the 4year [average](https://postimg.cc/Tp8g83mS), and below the 2018 levels, which we might see again with this 5G super-cycle and explosive growth in the services revenue. + +I also think the company will continue to invest in both Capital Expenditure and Operating expenses. + +I think the operating expenses will remain pretty much in line with the [previous](https://postimg.cc/2qBCfrnc) years, as this number has increased by 1% [annually](https://postimg.cc/Fd5JL9v8) both in R&D and SG&A. So, I will keep the exact percentages from previous years, as I expect the revenue to increase, thus I don’t see a big increase percentage wise. This would account for over $60B in operating expenses by 2025 and over $11B in Capital Expenditures by 2025, as I expect this to increase, mainly due to the possible EV developments or investments in self-driving capabilities alongside other manufacturing capabilities. You can see that the Capex [spending](https://postimg.cc/yDsRdpLy) has been decreasing in the past years with just over $8.8B in payments for business acquisitions and the other traditional Capex spending. Some people may use the cash generated by [investing](https://postimg.cc/Mn9nG6Mz) activities as Capex, but that is more unreliable. I also can see the Capex going back up, so I wanted to be safe and implied a 10% growth. + +This money would account for over $73B in [expenses](https://postimg.cc/dZnY91K1) and would bring the profit for the company to almost $104B before interest and taxes. + +Moving on, let’s see what interest income and expenses the [company](https://postimg.cc/cgy0x2ms) has had in the past few years. We can see a decrease in interest expense in the past few years as the company has been paying off debt, but they have also been generating less money in this department, with an overall decrease in this department of more than 50% in the past year, way less than the amount from 2018. So, for safety reasons, I used a 10% decline in both income and expenses [related](https://postimg.cc/QKgtZhZG) to interest, while increasing the other losses by 10%/year. + +This would bring the company pre-tax income to just over $104B in 2025. + +Let’s move on to taxes. I know the Federal income tax rate is 21% for the [company](https://postimg.cc/ykY39pq1), but the actual effective tax rate for the company was lower than 15% in the past year, mainly due to lower tax-rates on foreign earnings alongside tax-benefits and tax-settlements. The average effective tax rate has been just over 16% in the past 3 years, but with more and more of the revenues coming from outside the US, I think it’s safe to say that the company will have around a 15% effective tax rate by 2025, this obviously if nothing major changes in tax policy around the world. + +So, Apple would [have](https://postimg.cc/Wqc3ytKw) $88.6B in income after tax by 2025 and with the current outstanding shares standing at just under 17B, so I don’t even account for the company probably continuing to do share buybacks, this would mean a $5.22 [future](https://postimg.cc/4YytCLwL) earnings/share. And with today’s price for Apple just around 136$, that would mean to [company](https://postimg.cc/RNf1qH44) is trading at just over 26 times forward price to earnings. + +I don’t think Apple will ever trade at a discount again, with the current PE [standing](https://postimg.cc/RqwqHQ6s) at over 40, I believe this will eventually go down, probably to around 35, despite the increase in services revenue, which is highly valued by investors. I think we can see Apple trade somewhere near 35 [times](https://postimg.cc/5H98PKv2) P/E in 2025, especially if something big happens with the EV project, this could be even higher, just look at Tesla which trades at [insane](https://postimg.cc/sBZhxMk5) P/E. Of course, we also have to take into consideration the dividends that will be received from owning the stock, as Apple has started to pay dividends almost a decade ago and has 9 years of dividend growth, with a 10% annual rate of [growth](https://postimg.cc/CnbZMbD2) in the past 5 years. [Here](https://postimg.cc/7CLT1G8C) is the dividend growth history for the company, as I also went conservative on this [estimate](https://postimg.cc/Tp7LcjGr) and implied a 7% growth for the next 2 years, 6% for 2023 and 2024 and just 5% in 2025. + +So [here](https://postimg.cc/R3PK21QQ) are my 3 price targets for the company, [including](https://postimg.cc/JHR8JXvv) dividends but not reinvested. My bear case scenario is that Apple will trade at almost 165$ which implies a [return](https://postimg.cc/jCYzWhd2) of over 21% by 2025, while my base case scenario would see Apple trading at 195$ with a return of capital of 43%. I will also make the bull case for Apple trading at 225$ by 2025 with dividends included, which would imply just over 65% in gains by then. + +I think this is possible as Apple has also [continued](https://postimg.cc/fJj36jMt) to buy back shares of the company on a constant basis, as they continue to an impressive campaign with over $72B worth of common stock repurchased in 2020. They continue to buy back shares at a very fast pace, having repurchased over 1.3B shares in 2019 and 2018, while also issuing less stock every year. + +So here is the full [spreadsheet](https://postimg.cc/Z995KrzL) that I have projected for Apple by 2025 and the breakdown of everything i estimated \[ [1](https://postimg.cc/jCT7qdZJ) / [2](https://postimg.cc/DmcbSkMp) \] , if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion. + +Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just [look](https://postimg.cc/V50nHCSn) at the growth Apple has had in the last 5years. The company has increased in value by more 400% in just the past 5years and is over 100.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against Apple? + +The company also has pristine [financials](https://postimg.cc/LYcYMxqf), with more than $65B in total assets compared to total liabilities, and more than $38B in cash and cash equivalents. + +So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Apple? + +Let’s look at this [CHART](https://postimg.cc/7592T1c8), so starting with the stock split, Apple saw a correction within the September stock market pullback, in a buy the news & sell the event, after a huge runup post-announcement of the stock split. The stock entered a consolidation period, and didn’t have any big catalysts, especially with new iPhone lineup not being included in the Q4 results due to the late launch. The stock found some levels of resistance near the $120 levels that it struggled to get past but acted also as support after breaking them just before the recent news of the possible EV developments or self-driving-features to be licensed to other car manufacturers. After that news the stock spiked and has now reached the previous highs made before the stock split and is facing some resistance, if the stock pushes over $140 I think we can officially say that it broke the resistance at those levels and is not just a fake-out. But I think it’s likely that the stock will consolidate between 122 and 135$ in the next weeks until the next iPhone sales and quarterly results are released, as the stock has entered overbought territory again with an RSI over 70, the first time since the stock split. + +So, what would I do? Well, I own Apple stock, and I really believe this company will remain the biggest or one of the biggest in the future, so I would really add on any weakness that the stock shows before the next quarter earnings are released, as typically Q1 [earnings](https://postimg.cc/V5t0FPTF) are the best for the company due to increased holiday sales combined with the launch of new products. I think any entry below 130$ would be really nice to start and build a position or increase it if you already own the stock. As I believe Apple is one of the most stable stocks out there with large institutional [holders](https://postimg.cc/3kqG3XcK) like Vanguard, BlackRock and Berkshire owning over 900M shares each. + +Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! + +Have a great day and see you next time! +I have a spare laptop and spare bandwidth so I decided I would run a full node and help the network. I am not stupid but not very technical either. + +It took two days to download the full blockchain. Why is that? I have a fast 50 MB fiber connection. 50 gigs on bittorrent would take just a few hours. I had to wrestle with getting ports open and working so all in it took me about three days to get up and running. + +So here I am the proud operator of one of only 5,000 full nodes, doing my bit to help bitcoin but the experience is very disappointing. On my screen I have a large white area that is empty. It looks like a wallet, because of course it is that as well. At the bottom of the big empty white space are two tiny icons which if I mouse over one I get a notification that my copy of the blockchain is up to date. The other one shows how many users are connected to my node. This is in tiny text that disappears after a +few seconds. Other than that, nothing happens that can be seen. + +Here's my problem. There is no reward for running a full node but a definite cost. We rely on the goodwill of the community to run this essential service without which bitcoin would grind to a halt. Can't we make this at least a bit more visually interesting. How about a flashing light every time someone connects to the node, some on-screen statistics regarding how many blocks have been served to other nodes, value of transactions verified, how many other nodes are on-line, what percentage of the processing power I am providing. How about a scrolling bar saying "Thanks for supporting the bitcoin network". What about a simple block explorer allowing you to dig into the details of the blockchain you are so graciously hosting. If the internet is disconnected, nothing happens so if your network plug falls out you won't even know. What about a big green light saying online and some indication of the level of traffic passing through the node. + +I want to bring my friends up and say look, here's a full bitcoin node making the network run. I am part of it and you could be too. However showing a laptop with a blank white screen does not engender much excitement. It does reveal a failure of imagination. + +I know, none of this helps the network or is in anyway essential. It would however make people running full nodes perhaps a little prouder to be doing so and give them something to show off. To me this points to a fundamental problem with the powers that be in bitcoin. Yes we are decentralized but we all know now that the core developers wield a lot of influence. Coders are not blessed with a lot of imagination and tend rightfully to work on making sure everything is technically correct. Vary few successful companies are run by coders (or accountants for that matter). Academics are usually terrible business people. The frilly bits matter and good business people understand that and act accordingly. + +I have seen a lot of discussion on how essential full nodes are. Even the never ending blocksize debate keeps regurgitating the fact that full nodes are dwindling and centralization is a risk. Very esoteric (and frankly stupid) discussion on increased resource requirements forcing full nodes to close down. + +Come on! Make it sexy and interesting to run a full node and lots of people will do it. Yes provide an off switch for the frilly bits so serious coders can steer at a blank white screen but give the rest of us a bit of excitement. +Without going into too much detail, made a smallish, highly speculative buy on an company in an emerging industry 3 months ago. + +Did my homework into the industry first then narrowed down to one company that I thought had good potential over the longish term and made my purchase at a point where the stock price had dropped about 10% on the back of an announcement. + +Fast forward and I'm sitting on a 49% loss and the share price is just floundering. The worst is over, but it's consistent dropping a couple of cents per day, and I'm over it. It's completely wiped out all the gains I've made in my other holdings over the same period. + +Do I cut my losses, or hold on? Not interested in increasing my position. Thanks in advance. +Hey guys I know it might not be completely related to this group, but I wanted to know if any of you have any experience as a real estate agent? And if so what should you be expecting? +Hello reddit users. +Looks like my place of work will be shutting down within the next 6 months. +I need some advice on how to prepare for this. + +Any advice would be most welcome. +So there's finally an SEC chair and head of enforcement that at least superficially appear to have a legitimate interest in investigating and taking action against all the things people are bringing attention to. Time will tell what will actually come out of it. + +Any idiot can understand that, in order for them to be able to investigate and take action, they must at all costs avoid any association to holders of any particular stock. They must remain impeccable as far as impartiality is concerned. + +If there's even a shred of a hint of some kind of partial bias or connection to holders of any particular stock, they can and will be sacked and replaced, and their replacements will stay far, far away from investigating all the things people are bringing attention to, lest they appear to also be partial and biased. + +I know this sub is often next level stupid, but for the love of God, for once, stop and think about what is actually being proposed and what consequences that would actually have. A GG AMA, or any other thing that could even remotely be used to accuse GG of being partial and biased to holders of particular stocks would completely destroy all hope that even half of the things people are bringing attention to will ever be actually investigated and taken action against. + +To be clear, holders of GME can still put faith in Ryan Cohen and the new team - they don't need the SEC to investigate and take action if they pull off something like an NFT dividend or what have you, but, obviously, SEC investigation and action doesn't hurt, so let's not go out of our way to completely destroy all hope of SEC investigation and action please? + +Fortunately, there's no way in hell either of the GGs would ever do an AMA here. But still. +[PIG](https://pigtoken.finance/) is a rug-free, gas-free yield farming token. Here are the pros: + +&#x200B; + +1. It's similar to FEG which was a 1000x token in the last month +2. Every transaction has a 5% tax: 3% gets locked in liquidity which means the floor price is always rising. 2% is distributed to PIG holders like you. +3. 100% of the PIG supply was seeded as liquidity! So the team isn't hording tokens and you didn't miss the presale. It's also now 100% community led. +4. A rug pull is not possible - liquidity is locked in Pancakeswap. Ownership of the contract has been transferred to the burn address. +5. Exponential deflation cuz 50% of the supply was sent to the Black Hole at launch +6. It's on the Binance Smart Chain / Pancakeswap - low fees to get in/out. +7. And it couldn't be easier to earn rewards, they automatically go straight to your wallet +8. Pigs = bacon, bacon = mmm delicious +9. It's just starting to get noticed, including by people who correctly called FEG's massive potential, like Crypto Talk on Youtube. + +Cons: + +1. Super new and therefore super risky +2. We don't know anything about the team behind it +3. It's not unique, and therefore not a first mover + +UPDATE: Read [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMoonShots/comments/lv33hy/warning_farming_yields_and_deflationary_should_be/) before buying. Also compare the comments below - insightful critical ones vs. schilling from a brand new account. +The main question is how is this legal, but seriously how is this possible? Looking for a wrinkle explanation on why/how there’s high volume daily with a low overall float when retail orders aren’t getting accounted for. The float gets traded over and again every about 10 trading days. + +Need to add characters… DRS is the way to combat this egregious naked shorting and dark market activity/rigged system. DRS DRS DRS — DONT BE A BYSTANDER —DRS DRS DRS +DRS. DRS. DRS. There….! Once was stonk named G M E, it made me crazy money money, so much that I went out drunk to Sea, almost every single morning… + +There once was a stock named G M E the main stream media said it was funny but I wasn’t laughing I was pissed so that day I decided to buy my ship! + +It was not just one strait up line it would take a lot of meticulous time, but I thought that to myself “Well that’s just fine!” + +During that time I skimmed the D&D I also read superstonk on the daily. I never lost HYPE and I know you are me! so let’s make some fucking money, And DRS G M E! +Bit of hopetimistic discussion for a slow sunday in crypto + +You wake up, portfolio has moond overnight and the worlds your oyster, whats the first thing you do ? + +For me i'd get the mortgage paid off (boring i know) retire, then start looking for a nice chalet in the alps for a holiday home .... and probably one in spain aswell, thats the dream for me (sorry no lambo) then most likely spend a week on amazon going nuts buying anything and everything i see and just watch the parcels turn up till i get move to one of my holiday homes. + +We can dream can't we 😅 +tl;dr Reckless naked shorting IMO guarantees that r/superstonk owns bare minimum the whole float. You all better be as greedy as me with a 20M floor. + + + +This might come across as harsh but here we go. I, like many of you was a part of the crowd that would have accepted a lot less money back in January if they had let it squeeze back then. But not now. I’m no longer in this for any small amount of money. The HFs need to be bled dry and we all need to become filthy rich. I’ve been getting royally pissed about how people are begging for new DD and how they need constant reassurance that the squeeze is still on. You’ve all been watching the same ticker as me. How the hell would they have covered with us watching like vultures?? They’ve been shorting it to oblivion the past 4 **months** and people are showing that they either have not read or don’t understand the DD. Back then we were just passengers along for a ride on the back of whales like BlackRock but now I have no doubt that our beloved r/superstonk owns at bare minimum, the float. We will set our price and it will be extremely expensive. The SHFs continue to test our patience with their naked shorts and many institutions are complicit. By now you should know, regardless of how many SHFs are bankrupted, the DTCC is on the hook to cover. I want it all. They’re insured for $60T(probably more given liquidations of SHFs and etc) and I want all of you to be as greedy as me. All the shit we put up with was not worth it unless we are all filthy rich. My floor is 20M you all better be as greedy as me. + + + +Pre-emptive edit: if you feel targeted, good I am talking to you. You better not paper hand and ruin it for us. Fuck the HFs. Fuck the MSM. Fuck everyone that is making us wait. Diamond your hands the fuck up and get rich with me. +After a ton of hours and pushing my ass to go above and beyond to earn those tips, I’ve managed to make $2500 this month! On top of going to school! I owe $6000 on my Visa, $1300 for an elective surgery I had two years ago, and another $1400 on my MasterCard, but Im motivated now and starting to claw my way out! Once all my bills are paid for July, everything left over is going to my debt. I’m just wondering if I should snowball and pay off my lowest debt first? Or dump as much as I can onto my big Visa and work my way down? My interest payments are $100 a month on the big Visa which is more than my minimum payment. The other ones are much more manageable. Which method is better? +So I received a W-2 from a company I didn't work for, the amount of money matches about what I made from my last employer who was a very shady guy. The company has HR Outsourcing in it's name. I think he hired me for certain contacts I had and I was capable of doing the job well but didn't want to pay for my salary long term and just wanted the help as he looked for someone cheaper. Also to avoid unemployment benefits. The funny thing is I got a w-2 from him but it was for the last check I got after threatening to sue him for pay owed. + +He still owes me pay, but I've been told hes bankrupt now and his house is in foreclosure so I dont want to waste my time. + +My question now is, do I need to file criminal charges for identity theft? Please help I never imagined something like this could happen. + +I will crosspost to legal advice + +Edit: I never signed a contract, I didn't "overlook" paperwork. I interviewed for a position with a company, got the position, did a W-2 upon hire. I literally said it wasn't disclosed and the most upvoted comments are assuming that I just overlooked something and I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT IS NOT THE CASE. There was no disclosure. +I love learning how others have progressed over the years towards (or away!) FI. What is your [brief history of the stash](http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/09/15/a-brief-history-of-the-stash-how-we-saved-from-zero-to-retirement-in-ten-years/)? + + +This stock has been started to be promoted by the YouTube community and i wanted to ask you what are your thoughts because this one has to consolidate somehow,, it is 1,2 isd now with 30% up pre market,, i sold half of my shares expecting a dip today but it seems that we are not having that now,, any thoughts on how to proceed with this one? + +Currently holding since .42 +Get your finger off the sell button. + +Bitcoin is going parabolic (I said it would hit 10k mid Jan in Aug.... I still see that happening) + +And thats the reason for the alts dropping. There is an influx of "new money" into Bitcoin, partially because of the fork, mainly because their are BIG institutional investors that are taking positions. + +Since the announcement that BTC futures will be traded many people have taken that as a sign that reads "Bitcoin is real!" -Love Wallstreet + +This is a double edged sword. + +We are going to see 10k BTC within 90 days. I also foresee 50k by years end 2018. You can't underestimate what the news of BTC futures means to the entire market. I know for a fact that there will be some billion, dollar buys of BTC in the next 6 months. + +Some of this will come from hedge funds some banks. + +Also China WILL be back in the mix in late Feb. They are currently in a political space that is slowing the prices down, however ICO and more importantly, exchange regulation and legislation is on the table and going through the steps for inclusion/ adoption. + +This all equates to FUD on BTC. Please stop worrying. The longer you have been in this game the less we worry. + +Bitcoins, alts, even stocks go through cycles. Put 50% of your money into Bitcoin and find some good long term Alts and then sit on your hands. + +Alts like ARK, OMG, WAVES, NEO, WTC.... They have great teams, provide a solid roadmap and have real world applications that will fundamentally change things within the ecosystem. + +This is the time to rejoice! It's time to buy at 10,20,60% off your favorite alt! + +Stop stressing out, and for Gods sake dont sell alts low to buy Bitcoin at ATH. + +Repeat after me. + +HoDL + +Cheers +I'm looking to pick up some AAPL and in an effort to avoid my portfolio becoming too tech heavy I want to drop NVDA or AMD. Has anyone got any arguments they feel would justify dropping one over another? + +*Edit* Some people are confused by my wording; what I mean is if I held Apple, Nvidia and AMD my portfolio would be too tech heavy so I was asking which of them people think I should get rid of. +Hey everyone, it’s Adam (Yea my name is actually Adam, original right?) + +I’ll start off by saying that I’ve always been terrible at public speaking, even in a written form, so apologies if this all seems like the ravings of an introvert. + +Disclaimer: Grammar police be warned. + +I’m just an ordinary guy from Canaduh who loves drawing retro pixel art. + +Most of my projects are based around parodying real world events & essentially shit-posting. + +My collections are growing in terms of scope, utility & direction, but their origins stem from parodying this wild journey we’ve been on. + +&#x200B; + +* **How did your project come to be? Where did you draw the inspiration from?** + +[My fav childhood store!](https://reddit.com/link/y5mljt/video/m1lxm6cks7u91/player) + +The origins of my project stem back to the annual shareholder meeting earlier this year. Leading up to the meeting I thought it would be fun to put out a couple of giveaway NFT’s on twitter to hype people up about the meeting itself. After posting both the local game store and the headquarters NFT’s the reception was unexpectedly insane. + +From the age of 11 years old I had always been dabbling in indie game development starting with RPG Maker, moving to BYOND (If you ever played Never Ending Quest, that was me) and then Game Maker followed up by Godot. + +[Buckle up](https://i.redd.it/4tpid4xos7u91.gif) + +I always failed at the programming aspect (I’m pretty smooth) so I always drew mock-ups of games I’d love to make or I’d try and just fail making one in general, this got me pretty good at whipping up scenes that never would come to fruition. + +When making my first NFT’s I drew a lot of inspiration from my previous experience as well as using some previous art from one of my failed projects that was heavily influenced by Earthbound. + +&#x200B; + +* **How did you find out about the GameStop marketplace and what made you apply?** + +I’ve been invested in Gamestop since March 2021 so I’ve had my finger on the pulse ever since then. Initially I found out about the marketplace through the leaks that were found via Loopring’s code (Found right here on r/SuperStonk) I got super hyped up about it and even posted a big tinfoil hat theory about it. I still often think about how crazy it is that not too long ago I was on the other side looking in and now I’m apart of this journey in a different way. I initially applied due to the community yelling at me to apply with zero expectations of getting in. + +&#x200B; + +* **How much experience did you have with NFTs going into this project? What are some things you know now that you wish you knew when you started?** + +To be honest, my NFT experience was essentially zero. I had heard about NFT’s a while back and tried grabbing a cheap from Open Sea for fun, but was hit with a massive gas fee which ended up being 5x the cost of the NFT itself… Basically a nope. + +Not until I joined the GameStop train, did I find out about all the future utility, low gas fees & transaction speeds. + +I started this whole journey in May, and since then I feel like I’ve gained at LEAST a Few wrinkles. + +At the beginning it was a lot of just creating funny art to make people laugh and give them a token of history, I hadn’t thought a whole lot about utility at that time. + +Since I’ve launched, I’ve pivoted a few times to both move with market and what my collectors have been asking for. + +It’s tough staying on top of it all but I’m having a blast and learning new things within the space every day. + +&#x200B; + +* **What is your favorite NFT in your collection? Why?** + +[Card 023: Moon](https://reddit.com/link/y5mljt/video/et1fwwsqs7u91/player) + +It's really difficult to pick one, but if I had to choose - It'd be the Card 023: MoonThis was apart of my first charity project I did with NFT's where I had people donate any amount of LRC to me and in return I would draw a pixel character of them based on the description they gave me. I was able to raise 3,000 LRC for a Gaelscoil fundraiser that was in dire need of funding. + +This card means a lot to me as it represents the incredible community behind GameStop and Loopring. + +&#x200B; + +* **What is the current stage of the ‘What Lies Beneath’ game, can people still join the puzzle?** + +[Ethan's Apartment](https://i.redd.it/dprhmt9vs7u91.gif) + +What Lies Beneath is currently being developed between a programmer and myself right now. The movement/navigation mechanics are complete and right now we’re working on the UI of the game. As far as mechanics go I’d say we are 30% there. + +Once all the mechanics are in place, I’ll be building out the rest of the game myself. + +I’m really hoping to hit a 2023 release date (No promises) – I may have a small demo out before Christmas so people can try it and see it’s an actual thing. To add here the funds from the collection are not intended to fun the game, the game is a product of me pursuing my passion. + +And for those who don’t know, What Lies Beneath is one of my collections based on a game I was attempting to develop years ago. + +In this collection you can collect NFT’s that contain puzzles, if you solve those puzzles by visiting my website (ordinaryadam.com) you will find a form you can submit (if you can locate the slug) + +If you submit the right answer, you’d get an NFT that may or may not contain the next hint + +The project itself is a collection of scattered scenes from the game along with items earned from completing puzzles. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/p2pszvl6t7u91.png?width=491&format=png&auto=webp&s=fcfcaefeb2906b28a30f32bb11e7bbae980c41bd + +* **Besides the puzzles, is there any present or future utility planned for your NFTs?** + +Currently I do have some utility with my Card Collection & Furry Friends.As the GameStop NFT Marketplace doesn’t support candy machine functionality at this time, I designed a system to replicate the feeling of pulling a rare card when opening a pack of trading cards. + +Collectors can pickup cards, cards are worth a certain number of pixels. Collecting pixels gets you into tiers which increases your chances of pulling unique cards. + +[Card 072: Space Goose | Legendary Edition](https://preview.redd.it/usjmp0q8t7u91.png?width=363&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ae38c83d38e70351e4a59a7567e68920e057280) + +&#x200B; + +However, you could pull a legendary card by just holding 1 pixel (if you’re very lucky)So anyone could participate regardless of entry level. + +Pack opening days are essentially random airdrop days where I send out all the unique cards at random, being in a higher tier increases chances of multiple pulls. + +So far, it’s been a success and people have been loving the new system, it’s been more fun for myself seeing people get hyped about pulling a rare card. + +For Furry Friends, collectors can have their pets portrait wood burned onto a piece of live-edge wood by my fiancé (MapleArtisTree) We then ship the physical piece to the collector’s home and send a 1/1 NFT of their pet for them. Majority of the funds made from this collection go towards animal rescue. + +[Furry Friend: 001: Shylee | Owner: BadNewsLlama](https://reddit.com/link/y5mljt/video/qfr65j3ct7u91/player) + +&#x200B; + +I do have plans for my other collections as well but I’m unable to make any promises due to the nature of regulations surrounding NFT’s – Only once I can demonstrate what I have planned will I be able to speak more on what’s in the pipeline. + +* **Where do you see NFTs/web3 going in the future?** + +Big places, + +A lot of gamers right now are very anti-NFT, if you ask them why they usually will just say “It’s a scam” or “it destroys the environment” Or my personal favorite “No one asked for this” + +I believe the sentiment will change soon when gamers realize they can earn or re-sell assets they’ve already been paying for. DLC & Micro-transactions are not going anywhere anytime soon, so why not have more control and freedom to what you own? + +We just need a company to do some wide-scale onboarding into the space so folks understand that NFT’s are not just digital art. + +I also feel it will make its way into proving ownership for physical items such as rare collectors’ items, designer brands, etc. + +I truly believe that all of us are still really early to this party. + +&#x200B; + +[Anyone know of any companies leading the charge? ](https://i.redd.it/dzdr2pset7u91.gif) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +* **Any future projects planned for the GameStop marketplace?** + +My issue is that I have a LOT of ideas but only so much time to create and maintain what I’m doing. I have a few more projects that I will eventually get to but will speak more on that at a later date. For now I’m going to focus all my energy on my current collections & continue to grow as a creator. + +My Fiancé who makes Monkey Business, BB’s “R” Us, Furry Friends & Witching Hour also has some fun plans for a new project – Will be revealed later + +* **Last one, besides yours, any other GameStop Creator project you are looking forward to seeing?** + +I’m really looking forward to seeing what Puzzle Gang comes up with, they’ve got an amazing team and the work they’ve done already is fantastic. I'm also looking forward to what other stuff LoffyLlama comes out with, his collection is incredibly wholesome. + +&#x200B; + +[Chef Golblum likes to watch you in pain](https://preview.redd.it/s3iqtt1ht7u91.jpg?width=400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=46210d69ffc05671aea7db338c41d2ee6a5b1e35) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Lastly, I want to sincerely thank every single person in my community, on r/Superstonk and those who’ve just purchased my NFT’s just because it made them laugh. + +It’s difficult to articulate how grateful my Fiancé and I are for the unwavering support we’ve had from the community - I also want to thank my small crew (AllHallows, BadNewsLlama, Litharium, KC) They've been instrumental in helping not only myself, but other creators as well by doing a massive amount of giveaways to lift up other creators pre-launch and they continue to assist me with ideas. (I love you guys) - Additionally thank you so much to the GameStop NFT team for being incredibly patient with me and allowing me to pivot my collections into a more ToS friendly area. + +Not only have our lives been changed, but through the communities support we’ve changed and will continue to change lives through our chartable efforts. + +My Fiancé and I always spoke about our post-moass goal of living out my late mother’s dream of building a school in Africa. + +Because of you all we’ve funded the entire school and construction has already begun.The school itself will house 300 students to start and will continue to intake more students as time goes on. + +Not only this, we were able to give a size-able donation to Korean meat trade rescue & also went on a shopping spree at a local GameStop for SOS Children’s Village BC. + +This December we plan on going on another shopping spree for Burnaby Children’s Hospital, this one is incredibly special to me as I was born and fought cancer at that Hospital. + +We won’t stop there either; we’ll continue to keep giving. It’s such a cool idea that people can get an NFT for supporting charitable causes. + +And all of this has led to me doing something I love to do full time, which is draw and create... Never something I thought I'd be able to do. + +I’ll be hanging around to answer any questions that I’m able to, or if you want just stay and say hi. + +Socials: + +Creator Link:[https://nft.gamestop.com/user/OrdinaryAdam](https://nft.gamestop.com/user/OrdinaryAdam) + +Twitter:[https://twitter.com/Ordinary\_Adam](https://twitter.com/Ordinary_Adam)[https://twitter.com/mapleartistree](https://twitter.com/mapleartistree) + +Discord: - Come hang out, we have game nights as well where you can win stuff[https://discord.gg/Ru8rnF77](https://discord.gg/Ru8rnF77) + +OA Website:[www.ordinaryadam.com](http://www.ordinaryadam.com/) + +Charitable work:[https://www.ordinaryadam.com/charity-work](https://www.ordinaryadam.com/charity-work) +[GameStop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) || Shop [Internationally](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vyyzmx/gamestop_retail_international_nft_game_informer/) || [https://nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com) + +GameStop [Investor Relations](https://news.gamestop.com/) + +&#x200B; + +**Read** [**the Rules & Wiki**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index) **||** [**MOASS FAQ**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq) **|| Join our** [**Discord**](https://discord.gg/Superstonk) + +How do I [feed DRSBOT](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEOrphans/comments/qlvour/welcome_to_gmeorphans_read_this_post/)? Get a [user flair](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yuarvq/how_to_get_a_userflair_on_superstonk_new_emojis)? Hide [post flairs and find old posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v0oxp2/how_to_filter_by_flair_search_for_posts_on/)? + +[Reddit & Superstonk Moderation FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/reddit-faq/) + +# 🙋 ​[What's GME & should I consider investing?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qig65g/welcome_rall_looking_to_catch_up_on_the_gme_saga/) + +# 📚 Library of Due Diligence [GME.fyi](https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg) + +>A collection of over 200 of the most important, groundbreaking **D**ue **D**iligence. If you're looking to familiarize yourself with the GME bull thesis or the underhanded tactics of the short sellers involved in this trade– then this is for you + +# 🟣 [Computershare Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yjawq7) + +>Wondering what DRS is? Want to know how and why people are Direct Registering their shares? Here you'll find our guide and additional resources, as well as a welcoming community answering questions in the comments! +Tried to login into my mobile app one day last week, and found that my account was "locked." Hmm that's weird. Called up, entered my debit card number on the cust. service line, "We're sorry, that doesn't appear to be a valid account." I eventually spoke to 3 different departments, who told me that my account was being closed due to "risk" and there was "nothing they could do." They also couldn't tell me why. But not to worry, I could get the funds that were in my account within 10-15 business days. + +&nbsp; + +Andreas Antonopoulos said in one of his videos that in many places in the world, you could wake up, and with the flip of a 0/1 in a database, you no longer have access to your money. I foolishly thought, I'm in the US, I'll never have that problem, right? + +&nbsp; + +My situation was eventually escalated to the point where someone could tell me what was going on. Apparently, B of A read a number wrong on a perfectly valid check I deposited via mobile deposit. No email, no phone call to ask me about what they presumably thought was a bad check. I just woke up and *gone* I no longer have my money. + +&nbsp; + +I never thought that this could happen to me, but it did. I resolved this with B of A and have my accounts back, but some people aren't so lucky. With Bitcoin, you are your own bank, and you can ensure that this never happens to you. + +It's a place for reporting and sharing your dangerous apartments, we'll provide support and resources for protecting yourself against abusive landlords as well as reviewing and exposing apartments and landlord tactics. + +r/Reportlandlords + +We will hold Landowners accountable for their property and our wellness through legal action, we will not be another statistic. + +It's a place for reporting and sharing your dangerous apartments, we'll provide support and resources for protecting yourself against abusive landlords as well as reviewing and exposing apartments and landlord tactics. + +r/Reportlandlords + +We will hold Landowners accountable for their property and our wellness through legal action, we will not be another statistic. +Someone in /r/assistance suggested I post here. I read the FAQ and the wiki, but couldn't really find anything to help me build a solid plan for the right now, to avoid homelessness. If that information was there and I overlooked it, I apologize. + +So here it is: + +I got fired today. Yes, I am applying for jobs. Yes I have filed for unemployment online. + +My current financial situation looks like this: + +My final check + my savings + what's available in my checking account right now= 1,812.99. + +I'm currently renting in a two bedroom apartment. My share of the rent is 547.50 each month, prior to utilities, which can run anywhere from 55-80$. My phone bill (which is always the first to go whenever I need to cut expenses, which will probably go permanently this time) is 30$. I have two credit cards, one with a 35$ min payment and the other an 11$ min payment. They are currently both at 100% utilization bringing my total credit card debt to approximately 2000$. I have a cat. My expenses for her are cat food and cat litter which I spend approximately 30$ a month on. I guess I will be skipping her winter flea treatment. My entertainment budget consists of my WoW subscription, which is paid for with in game gold, not actual cash. + +I had purchased vision and dental insurance through my job. I do not have health insurance, not even Medi-Cal (I live in California, that was probably relevant somewhere further up in this post). + +I currently receive food stamps of 58$ a month, but am going to request an income verification form tomorrow to update my income to 0...food is the last thing I'm worried about as far as budgeting in the immediate future because one of the only benefits to having an ED is being able to go long periods of time without eating a lot. + +My plan right now is that, the money I have is enough to pay my rent and my minimum credit card payments until October (meaning I will be able to pay on Aug 1st, Sept 1st, and Oct 1st and would need to give my 30 days on Oct 1st). And that's it, I really don't have a plan after that. I have a Rev.com account that I signed up for a few months ago, but never actually started claiming work. So I can do that for pocket money while scrambling around for jobs. + +I also have some paperwork that was given to me today when I was fired. It's about my retirement, but I really don't understand what it means and I'm not sure if the balance it lists was included in my final paycheck or if it's even a balance I can redeem or get back. + +I'm really just looking for advice. This is only the second time in my life that I've been unemployed, and the first time I have been fired, so my head is swimming with distress. + +I do not have a support network to rely on (I don't have a family, or friends who would be able to help me financially). + +Thank you, and please let me know if I need to put in more information or if this post is inappropriate. +This article really struck me by nailing down most of my angst as a working professional. I'm in my late 30s and recently discovered the path to FI (thanks to this subreddit and other websites) - I see FI as a way to get off of the "treadmill" that the author embraces. I have mixed feelings for the "treadmill" and can envision myself happily pursuing a variety of interests and hobbies post FI (many years from now). + +Recently, I've been considering a move from my HCOL mid-Atlantic city that I love (and mediocre paying job) to a LCOL southern city for a higher paying job. Will I lose my identity, relationships with friends and family if I do this, as the author states? I have so many great connections where I am. + +Have you ever started over in a new city and left a strong network in the pursuit of FI -- how did you fare? Do you truly love the "treadmill" or have you managed to find balance even pre-FIRE? + +https://www.1843magazine.com/features/why-do-we-work-so-hard/?page=1#comments + +"This life is a package deal. Cities are expensive. Less prestigious work that demands less commitment from those who do it pays less – often much less. For those without independent wealth, dialling back professional ambition and effort means moving away, to smaller and cheaper places. +But stepping off the treadmill does not just mean accepting a different vision of one’s prospects with a different salary trajectory. It means upending one’s life entirely: changing locations, tumbling out of the community, losing one’s identity. That is a difficult thing to survive. One must have an extremely strong, secure sense of self to negotiate it." +Question - Sberbank ADR (the largest Russian bank) is trading at $0.01 on the London stock exchange (symbol SBER) but listed at $1.00 on the OTC markets (SBRCY). Do the shares represent shares in the European subsidiary or something that just went bankrupt? Is either price accurate? Just wondering because I wouldn't expect the main Russian bank to go under even though the European subsidiary does. + +London: [https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SBER/sberbank-of-russia/company-page](https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SBER/sberbank-of-russia/company-page) + +OTC: [https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SBRCY](https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SBRCY) + +Brokers are suspending all trading and only allowing exiting of positions in Moscow Exchange stocks and Russian stocks in general. Does the price just mean there is no price discovery right now? That's what I'm praying for. + +&#x200B; + +Btw this is [crossposted](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/t4wz6c/sberbank_shares_how_fucked_am_i/) at /r/wallstreetbets I assume that's ok. +We had our first child in September 2019 - The plan was to for her to go back to work 4 days a week. We both work as retail managers and our days off are flexible, so we could work each other's days off and only need to pay for 2 days of child care. + +Plans changed unexpectedly and we had our second child in August 2020. + +If we stick to our original plan, our childcare costs will be £960 per month! I believe we can use the tax free childcare scheme to bring this down to £768. + +My wife will earn £1400 per month full time (£20k per year), so we'd be up £632 per month + +Alternatively, she could go back 2 days a week as a customer advisor and earn £468. + +It seems ridiculous to work twice as many days for an extra £160. + +The negative that we've considered is: + +\- In September 2022 we'd get 30 hours free childcare, making 4 days a week economically viable, but she'd have to try and get promoted again - This is possible as she is good at her job and there is quite high staff turnover, but it is not guaranteed! + +Are we missing anything else? +So I recently found out that my gf (19) was asked by her mum if she could purchase Christmas presents in her name a year ago. My gf agreed and since February of this year has been getting what she assumed were spam texts from a credit provider demanding payment. It was only until she stumbled across a letter that she realised the texts were legitimate . Her mother has been hiding all letters regarding the debt from her, and refuses to pay the bill of £300 that has been sitting there for a considerable amount of time now (since last year). + +What are our options here? My gf cannot afford to pay the debt herself, and her mum will definitely refuse to do so. Her credit score has tanked completely and the letters she is receiving mentions if she doesn’t pay soon a solicitor will be involved and a county court judgement issued. She is terrified of how this could affect her future life and ideally wants her mum to be given the debt and for the impact it’s had on her credit to be undone. + +Added context: her mum also tried to get her to take a £5,000 loan out for her. So this woman is unlikely to cooperate politely or understand why her daughter is so anxious about this. +I'm 24 years old, currently living with my parents on the London/Surrey border. I'm looking to live local and I know I'd be staying for at least 5 years, I have a good stable job that I've had for 6 years now. Around here based on my income, I can afford a 1 bed flat at 230,000 (50k deposit as part of that). + +Now my end goal has always been home ownership, however I feel that I've lowered my expectations to a 1 bed flat as most 2 bed flats would cost another 30k at least. I keep getting told the first buy is a stepping stone and I know I'd live in a 1 bed for at least 5 years but with a 2 bed I would have more flexibility (renting the room, office, storage). + +Does anyone have any suggestions on what I should do? Is lowering my expectations to get onto the "housing ladder" a good idea as I would be living in it long term regardless or should I save my money and FTB bonuses for potentially another 3 years to be able to afford a 2 bed flat? I'm starting to need my own space and rent in this area would cost more than a mortgage by a good few hundred pounds. + +Thanks! +Had a pretty shit time in my 20a due to health. Working low paid low hours jobs. What money I did save up I went travelling with. Didn't have one stable employer but worked 8 month here, a year there on temporary contracts mostly via recruitment agencies. + +I'm more stable with work now and looking to become a mortgage advisor next year. What should I be looking to do? Can I try to pull any funds from my previous employers into a private scheme, could I have that scheme alongside and company pension in the future? + +I am about to get a small lump sump from a saving scheme my parents setup for me. 8k. Not sure if this should go to a house or put into all into a pension? +I lurk here because I am entertained by the enthusiasm. Many of you remind me of myself 12 years ago. I think many of you younger guys who read this sub just learned an important lesson, so I'm going to bring it home. + +NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT. + +TA is good at interpreting the past, but if it was able to actually predict the future then somebody already wrote a script that can suck the value out of that play faster than any of our monkey brains can. + +This is true regarding ETH, BTC, the price of gold, the S&P, bond yields, you name it. Trading is not much different than gambling in the short term + +Two Warren Buffet quotes (I think): + +"The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent." + +In other words the market doesn't give a shit how smart you think you are, you either need the ability to wait or you should not be in it. + +"The market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term." + +If you have time to wait then you'll see another cycle happen. If not, then you shouldn't be in it. + +Good luck, young bucks. Keep reading these subs for fun, but remember: + +NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE FUCK THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT. +I see a lot of people talking about $483 and the "300 dollar days of march" but that really doesn't paint the right picture. + +Now, premise here. We have all been watching the manipulation and continual shorting and price target wars... I am sure you notice they always try to tank it end of day. I am going to say that close price is the number that matters and a high is not notable for the beautiful Marge N. I also believe they have a few days to cover, maybe 5. + +Did you know? The highest GME ever closed was $347 on 1/27. + +The highest it has held over 5 consecutive days closing is only $220.14 + +3/15/2021 $220.14 + +3/12/2021 $264.50 + +3/11/2021 $260 + +3/10/2021 $265 + +3/9/2021 $246.90 + +&#x200B; + +If it were 4 days consecutive days that was key, it would be $246.90 + +Hell... did you know, GME has only closed over $220 dollars 9 times ever? + +It's closed over $300 only twice. + +I can't tell you what it would take to get a call from Marge. But it's totally possible that closing 5 days over $250 is all it takes. I would be willing to bet a banana up my... wait, no. No bets. Let's just say I think 5 days closing over $300 has about a 90% chance of setting off the calls. + +But what do I know, I am just a dumb ape. + +I just want you ~~guys~~ apes and apettes to have some perspective. We might trade sideways and down for another 3 weeks. If so, we just Buy and HODL. But, if we can hold these prices and keep moving up, we might be closer than we think. Don't think our 242 close price is nothing. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: I don't know who gave me the all-seeing award, but I am going to just believe it must be someone that knows GME has some really deep, really fucking, value. +# Hi Everyone! + +I wanted to reach out one more time to see if anyone has any questions or topics of discussion they would like to bring up in front of Dave. I would really appreciate the help in bringing some great questions to spark educational and interesting discussion! + +I have been given the opportunity to speak to Dave Live and the main categories we will be discussing are: + +&#x200B; + +* Securities Lending +* Direct Registration +* Settlement/Clearing + +&#x200B; + +This is focused around the efforts of the second letter to the SEC: [https://www.urvin.finance/advocacy/we-the-investors-sign-on-letter-2](https://www.urvin.finance/advocacy/we-the-investors-sign-on-letter-2) + +&#x200B; + +*I will not be sharing where the AMA will be as I'm just looking to get input from the community here. If you would like to watch it I'm sure you will be able to find it. This is about ensuring people here are heard and have the ability to have some input on possible changes to our markets for the better.* + +# The letter is requesting the following new disclosures be introduced to shed light on the opaque portions of the markets: + +**Lending Transparency:** Retail investors have the right to know whether their securities have been lent out, and how much revenue the broker has received. + +&#x200B; + +**Margin Transparency:** Investors need visibility into the estimated margin per security for Clearing Brokers. + +&#x200B; + +**Netting Transparency:** Investors need disclosure of gross versus net notional or share count per security to help understand trading dynamics and discern the level of real investment versus intraday trading activity. + +&#x200B; + +**FTD Transparency:** Failure To Deliver disclosures need to be updated more often, and include more information, including how and when FTDs are remediated, what type of counterparty is responsible for the failure (bucketed into clearing broker, exempt market maker or custodian), and how long the FTDs remained open.‍ + +&#x200B; + +**Disclosure of Registration:** Public companies should be required to disclose directly registered shareholder numbers on all 10-Q and 10-K reports. + +&#x200B; + +# As well as obligating retail brokers to give their investors more control over the lending of their securities and how those securities are registered: + +**NOBO/OBO designations**: Brokers should explain to investors the choices they may make as it relates to transparency of share ownership, where shares are recorded in a brokerage account in beneficial format. The default options should always be NOBO (non-objecting beneficial owner). Shielding holdings from investee companies through the use of OBO (objecting beneficial owner) designations should be a right that an investor should opt in to. Brokers should provide the investor’s email address as part of any disclosure of NOBO holdings. + +&#x200B; + +**Control of Stock Lending**: Investors have the right to decide whether their securities can be lent out to short sellers. Disclosures around account types and the implications therein need to be made simpler, easier to understand, and more explicit in the account creation process. + +&#x200B; + +**Control of Registration**: Investors should be able to choose whether their shares are to be held in a brokerage account or in direct registration form in the investor’s own name on the company’s share register. Brokers should be required to support the direct registration of shares in an investor’s name. + +&#x200B; + +**Investor Communications and Proxy Voting**: Investors should be able to receive their communication directly from the company they invest in and not have their shareholding pooled with other clients of the broker, whose interests may not be aligned. Investors should be able to vote directly with the company, and have their voice heard at general or extraordinary shareholder meetings. Their votes should be directly confirmed by the company or its agent. + +&#x200B; + +**Thank you for the help! I appreciate it and look forward to going through all the questions and topics.** + +🦍🍻🦍 +Do you think we are actually retarded? + +Firstly you announce today that the shorts are not actually covered contrary to what mainstream media is shoving down everyone’s throat. + +Then you announce that in the space of 6 hours the shorts have covered down to 30 mil on a Sunday with no data mentioned at all after a massive “unexpected delay” + + +Stop trying to spead fear it won’t work. You are using the same tactics as the 🏳️‍🌈🍋 + +You reported yourself that on the 28th there was still 58 million in short interest. If thats correct 30 mil was covered on Friday when the overall volume for the day was 50million lol + + +Edit 1/ The other thing is due to the fact $gme is such a big deal right now why would you publish premature results that you admit yourself are just “suggesting” the short interest has halved. Wouldn’t you actually want to be confident and wait for all the data to be collected which you say won’t be finalised until tomorrow so the results may be more accurate. + +Edit 2/ Thank you for awards but buy $gme instead! + +Edit 3/ For paid customers who use the platform the short interest is still showing 100%. Either the announcement is wrong or the product doesn’t work. + + +Disclaimer I am not a financial advisor so literally ignore everything I say, I am retarded. +Hi r/UKPersonalFinance, + +I’ve recently been looking into my student loan (based in England). + +I’m on Plan 2- so I paid the ~£9000 year fees and took the maintenance loans which were roughly £5000 a year. + +3 years fees at £9000 +1 year fee at £3000 +4 years of maintenance £20000 +Total ~£50,000 + +I’ve started working since leaving University, I’m currently 4 years into work and earning roughly £60,000 (including overtime etc). + +I checked my student loan for the first time last week. I owe them £63,000! At the start of last year I owed them ~£61,500, I repaid ~£2400 and the interest was ~£3900. + +As I’m in the higher pay bracket, my interest is also higher, I’m currently paying 5.6% interest on a 63k debt and I don’t think I’m ever going to repay it? + +My current contribution is 9% of anything over ~£27250. + +I’m expecting my salary to keep increasing, but with the 5.6% interest, it feels like this will be never ending? + +Is anyone in a similar situation or is there any way to tackle this? + +Thanks +**Germany:** + +Cryptos are 'Personal Money'. Exempt from taxes if you hodl for more than 1 year. Ez for diamond hands crowd. + +Bonus point: good beer, good roads, good cars. + +**Vanuatu:** + +No income taxes whatsoever. The country has very few taxes. + +Bonus points: cheap private islands, white sandy beaches, tropical weather, Pacific Oceania climate. + +**Singapore:** + +No capital gains taxes. No taxes on crypto. + +Bonus points: the heart of South East Asia, clean streets, great urban landscape, great nightlife. + +**Belarus:** + +Crypto gains will be exempt from taxes until 2023. + +Bonus points: Russia-lite, cheap housing, cheap cost of living. + +**Portugal:** + +Tax code hasn't been updated for crypto. Too lazy to update. Therefore crypto isn't subject to any tax. + +Bonus points: Sunny summers, cozy winters, amazing beaches, great food, great history. + +**Malta:** + +Blockchain island - long term capital gains taxes aren't applied to crypto and VAT are not applied on sales or purchases of crypto, making crypto tax free. + +Bonus points: Mediterranean climate, good nightlife, island life. + +**Other honorable mentions:** + +Malysia, Bermuda, Estonia, Slovenia. + +&#x200B; + +**Disclaimer:** + +*Depending on what citizenship you have, you might still need to pay your taxes earned abroad. Check with your local tax laws before YOLOing. This is not to encourage you to evade taxes!* +Hi! + +I'm 25, living in London (Zone 1) on \~£37k. My fixed outgoings (rent, bills etc.) are around £1k a month. + +I've taken my finances pretty seriously for the past 12 months. I've got a budget, built an emergency fund (£4k), and been investing my money (£8k). + +Now, I'm not really sure what to do. + +I feel as though I'm not living far enough below my means to build wealth - and most of that comes down to the fixed costs of living in London. About half of my income is gone before I've done anything! Buying in London is obviously out of the question too. + +I like living here, but I don't see how I can set myself up for future life (build wealth, buy house) without either a massive pay-rise or by significantly cutting my costs (moving out of London, or moving to a cheaper part of London with less living space, higher commute costs, worse flat conditions etc). + +Especially given lockdown, I think whatever value London was giving me before (nightlife, culture, seeing people, going into work) has been dramatically cut. + +Has anyone had a similar situation and opted to move out of London to get a bit more from their money? + +Would be great to hear other people's experiences/thoughts on this. + +**TL;DR - I don't earn an insane amount of money, should I move out of London for a better quality of life?** +Let’s go through the positives first. + +• Reverse Split would only happen if it were to take us to the Nasdaq, which is a huge catalyst for us and accomplishment for the company + +• The Reverse Split would reduce our outstanding shares/float making the stock price easier to be moved once on the Nasdaq. Simple supply and demand here folks. + +• Because we are on the OTC exchange High Tide is fairly unappreciated as it is unavailable to some of the biggest brokers (Robinhood/Webull and many more). After uplisting to the Nasdaq through an RS we would be able to be traded on more brokerages and have a wider outreach to more investors that like the stock. + +• A reverse split to get onto the Nasdaq would undoubtedly give us a larger social media presence among investors on the likes of YouTube/Reddit as it would be available to more investors. + +• Nasdaq uplisting would put us at a share price that would be attractive to more institutional investors and ETFs (Currently 0% institutional ownership). + + +Now let’s go through the negatives from what I’ve gathered. + +• News of a reverse split could potentially cause a temporary short drop in share price as the uneducated paper handlers sell out because they’re scared it’s going to cause the SP to drop, which shouldn’t be the case with High Tide as we are reverse splitting for a very positive reason. + +• Possible Stigma that comes with reverse splits as people have experience with failing companies going through an RS to not be delisted from an exchange, which again is not the case here. + +• For some reason people care about having a higher share count even though the shares still hold the same value? I know sounds crazy doesn’t it. + +I personally see no real negatives with going through with a reverse split and I’ll welcome it with open arms when the time comes. Why would you want to stay on the garbage OTC exchange when you could be up there on the big boy exchange with the other respected cannabis leaders? Just ask yourself that question please. + +FYI a reverse split up to 20:1 has already been previously approved by the Company in relation to listing on the Nasdaq. + +(Disclosure 21k Shares long) +Hi, I hope I'm able to ask this question in this community. + +My GF got a bachelor of arts degree majoring in environmental studies and completed the degree in 2019. She still hasn't found a job yet but is getting a decent amount of interviews since. I understand these past couple of years have been horrible for employment (COVID) but I thought she would have gotten a job by now. She even got a relatable and long experience in the field but is still unable to seek a position in her field. I'm just seeking some clarity on this issue so I can help her in any way possible. + +Any help is appreciated. Thank you. +This is from this Bloomberg article [The Black Hole Engulfing the World's Bond Markets](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-13/the-black-hole-engulfing-the-world-s-bond-markets-quicktake) + +>A bond can have a modestly positive coupon when issued by a government, institution or company, but once it starts trading, high demand by investors can push its price up -- and therefore its yield down -- to such an extent that buyers no longer receive any payment. Some funds track government bond indexes, meaning they must buy the bonds regardless of the yield. + +The whole article is informative and a quick read. +Scandal widens... + +[http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/vws-audi-division-says-21m-cars-affected-in-emissions-scandal.html](http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/vws-audi-division-says-21m-cars-affected-in-emissions-scandal.html) +Hey everyone, here's part 2 of the series. + +This entire series is made up of information I have found online, it is not original nor my own work. I am not an expert and I much prefer relying on the work of respected voices in finance. + +**95% of it is taken word for word from Prof. Aswath Damodoran's lecture slides that he makes available for free. He teaches at NYU and has an amazing Youtube channel with full courses on various aspects of corporate finance. I have also sprinkled in some additional information from other sources like Harvard Business School and others.** + +**Part 1: The Income Statement -** [**https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/nlhcci/accounting\_101\_part\_1\_the\_income\_statement/**](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/nlhcci/accounting_101_part_1_the_income_statement/) + +**Part 3: The Cash Flow Statement -** [**https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/nmweb8/accounting\_101\_part\_3\_the\_cash\_flow\_statement/**](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/nmweb8/accounting_101_part_3_the_cash_flow_statement/) + +# The Balance Sheet + +>A balance sheet shows how much a company is worth, also known as the "book" value. It lists the value of a company's assets, liabilities and shareholders equity.Like the Income Statement, it is often shared on a quarterly or annual basis. + +&#x200B; + +>***I have been banned from this subreddit. Some of my posts have been taken down. I won't be able to post on here anymore, I'll have to find another place that will have me!*** + +&#x200B; + +# Overview of whats in it + +>***No images allowed on the sub, so here's a link:*** [**https://imgur.com/WZNIuBY**](https://imgur.com/WZNIuBY) + +# Assets + +>***No images allowed on the sub, so here's a link:*** [**https://imgur.com/3UVsD43**](https://imgur.com/3UVsD43) +> +>An **asset** is defined as anything owned by a company that holds inherent, quantifiable value. + +**Current assets** include anything a company expects it will convert into cash within a year, such as: + +* Cash and cash equivalents +* Prepaid expenses +* Inventory +* Marketable securities +* Accounts receivable + +**Noncurrent assets** include long-term investments that aren’t expected to be converted into cash in the short term, such as: + +* Land +* Patents +* Trademarks +* Brands +* Goodwill +* Intellectual property +* Equipment used to produce goods or perform services + +A **liability** is the opposite of an asset, it's something a company ***owes***. + +**Current liabilities** refer to any liability due to the debtor within one year, which may include: + +* Payroll expenses +* Rent payments +* Utility payments +* Debt financing +* Accounts payable +* Other accrued expenses + +**Noncurrent liabilities** refer to any long-term obligations or debts which will not be due within one year, which might include: + +* Leases +* Loans +* Bonds payable +* Provisions for pensions +* Deferred tax liabilities + +Liabilities may also include an obligation to provide goods or services in the future. + +# Shareholders Equity + +**Shareholders' equity** refers to anything that belongs to the owners of a business after any liabilities are accounted for. + +* Common stock +* Preferred stock +* Treasury stock +* Retained earnings + +If you were to add up all of the resources a business owns (the assets) and subtract all of the claims from third parties (the liabilities), the residual leftover is the owners’ equity. + +# Dueling Views: + +**Record of capital invested:** There are some who believe that the main function of a balance sheet is to record how much a business has invested in its assets-in-place, i.e., the assets that allow for its current operations to occur. + +**Measure of current value:** There is a large and perhaps dominant school of thought among accountants, or at least accounting rule writers, that a balance sheet should reflect the value of the business today. + +**Liquidation value:** There is a third school, with lenders to the firm among its primary members, who feel that a balance should reflect what you would get for the assets of the firm, if you liquidated them today. + +# Fixed and Current Assets + +**The Old Way:** Two or three decades ago, the way you were taught to value fixed and current assets was to show them at **original cost, net of accounting depreciation.** + +**The New Way:** As accounting has increasingly adopted the **fair value standard**, there has been a move to mark assets to current market value. + +**Divergent Effects:** The difference in values that you get for assets, using the two approaches, varies. It is: + +* **Greater on older assets than on newer ones** +* **Greater on fixed assets than current assets** + +# Financial Assets + +* Financial assets can be holdings of securities or part ownership of other companies, private or public. +* With holdings of publicly traded securities, the movement to using current market prices to mark up their values is almost complete. +* With equity ownership in other companies, the rules can vary depending on: + * Whether the stake is viewed as a majority stake (>50%) or a minority stake. The former will lead to full consolidation (where 100% of the subsidiaries revenues and operating income will be included in the parent company’s financials, with the portion that is not owned shown as minority or non-controlling interest on the liability side) and with the latter, the actual stake will be shown as an asset. + * With a minority stake, whether it is held for trading or as a long-term investment. With the former, the holding will be marked to market. With the latter, it will be shown at book value terms. + +# Intangible Assets + +**Big game:** Accountants talk a big game when it comes to intangible assets, and from that talk, you would think that they have figured out how to value the big intangibles (brand name, management quality etc.). + +**But different reality:** In reality, accountants are much better at valuing small-bore intangibles like licenses and customer lists, where the earnings and cash flows from the intangible are observable and forecastable than they are at valuing the big intangibles. + +# Goodwill + +* After all the talk of intangibles in accounting, it is telling that the bulk of intangible assets on accounting balance sheets across the world take the form of one item: **goodwill.** +* Goodwill is a plug variable that signifies little. + * For goodwill to manifest itself on a balance sheet, a company has to do an **acquisition**. + * When that **acquisition occurs**, goodwill is measured as the **difference between the price paid on the acquisition and the target company’s asset value (dressed up book value).** + * It shows up as an asset because **without it in place, balance sheets would not balance.** + +# Goodwill Impairment: + +**Old rules:** For much of the last century, goodwill once created in an acquisition, was written off on autopilot, often amortized over long periods in equal installments. + +**New Rules:** In the late 1990s, both **GAAP** and **IFRS** rewrote the rules, requiring accountants to revisit goodwill estimates each year, and make judgments on whether the goodwill had been impaired or not. To make that judgment, accountants would have to revisit the target company valuations and decide whether the value had increased (in which case goodwill would be left unchanged) or decreased (and goodwill would be impaired). + +**Is it informational?** The rationale for this rule change was to provide information to markets, but since goodwill impairments are often based upon market pricing movements (in the sector) and lag them by months and sometimes years, the effect of goodwill impairments on stock prices has been negligible. + +# Current Liabilities + +**Current liabilities can be broadly broken into three groups:** + +* **Non-interest-bearing** liabilities, such as accounts payable and supplier credit, which represent part of normal operations. +* **Interest-bearing** short-term borrowings such as commercial paper, short term debt and the short term portion (<1 year) of long term debt. +* **Deferred** salaries, taxes and other amounts due in the short term. + +When computing non-cash working capital, we do not include interest-bearing short term debt in the calculation, moving it instead into the debt column. + +# Debt Due + +When companies borrow money, it can take three forms: + +1. **Corporate bonds**, represent debt raised from public markets +2. **Bank loans**, debt raised from banks and other lending institutions +3. **Lease debt**, arising out of lease contracts requiring lease payments in future years. Until 2019, only leases classified as capital leases qualified, but since 2019, operating lease commitments are also debt. + +The **mark-to-market movement** on the **asset** side of the balance sheet has been muted on the **liability** side of the balance sheet. Bank debt, for the most part, is recorded as originally borrowed, and corporate bonds due, are for the most part not marked to market. + +# Debt details + +While balance sheets are the repositories for total debt due, broken down into current and long term, there is additional information on debt in the footnotes, for most companies. + +**This additional information can be on three fronts:** + +1. Individual debt due, with stated interest rates and maturities. +2. Additional features on the debt, including floating/fixed and straight/convertible provisions. +3. A consolidated table of when debt repayments come due, by year. + +# Shareholder’s Equity + +**Old ways:** The shareholders’ equity in a business was a reflection of its entire history, since it started with the equity brought in to start the business, adds on equity augmentations over time as well as the cumulation of retained earnings. + +**New ways:** The shareholders’ equity in a business reflects the jumbled mess of mark-to-market accounting, with all of its contradictions. +Been stuck at BoA for far too long because of free checking, zillions of ATMs, and then having too many automatic bill pays tied to my account. + +We have our paychecks direct deposited, so have had a "premier" checking account tied to an overdraft account if we ever run short before a paycheck. For about a decade this has been free (except for the interest on the overdraft account). Just noticed that they started charging $10 per overdraft transfer now. I contacted the bank and they said that this is their new policy and that they have changed the name of the program from "premier" to "core". To get these fees waived, you need to have insane minimums like $10k sitting in a no-interest account. My complaints got the fees reversed, but the new fees seem permanent. + +I never saw any notice about this shift, and can't find any news stories, but did see that [Bank of America](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-most-hated-banks-in-america/) is now the most hated bank in America, because of fees. + +Needless to say, we have opened up an account at a local credit union and are starting the complicated slog to transfer everything. + +Just wanted to alert others out there to check those bank statements for odd fees that show up when they shouldn't. A call or online chat can get them reversed, but if they are constant, you should switch banks. And of course, get your finances in better shape so that you don't ever need overdraft protection, but that's another post for another day. +SPY crashed before the market closed yesterday and currently rallies but dropping again. (edit:thanks u/browncoats4lyfe) All my long term positions were at high prices, they blocked trading for reddit stocks even SNDL (using as an example). Please be aware of fake accounts also. + +Investors treat this as a game of chess. **People mean well on this sub, but everyone has their own intentions for a stock.** + +Two days ago, I last saw this sub at 420k lol. Play safe, there are thousands of tickers. + +Edit: **The other Mods do not want** u/automod **to be less strict. Please share thoughts/concerns** +Do you think RC will max out his allowed stake in GME? + +Shorts are on their heels. Volume is painfully low. Leverage is cracking. Markets are in turmoil. GME’s price is right at his last buy in. RC can still purchase more of the company. What’s your opinion? +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/24/shorts-betting-against-tesla-lose-more-than-1point4-billion-in-single-day.html + +Investors betting against Tesla collectively lost more than $1 billion on Thursday as the company’s stock headed for its best day since 2013. + +“Short sellers are, as Elon Musk stated earlier in the year, ‘feeling the burn,’” wrote Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at S3. + +Some high-profile short sellers such as Greenlight founder David Einhorn and Jim Chanos have clashed with Tesla and CEO Musk in the last few years. +Good morning, good afternoon and good evening all you lovely apes. My name is u/piece-friendly and I’m a crayon eating apetard. + +Y’all ready for some of that sweet, sweet DD? + +Buckle up… + +So let’s get started at the beginning… + +As a quick intro, I’ve been an investor in GME since January, I’ve seen the rips and I’ve seen the dips. In February, when u/deepfuckingvalue doubled down, I also did too. I have incredible faith in the turn around of GameStop, the new leadership team and their drive to give value to shareholders - this wonderful community I’m proud to be in. + +During March and April I went fully tinfoil. I went down rabbit hole after rabbit hole, sponging everything I read, learning about new terminology, new processes and expanding my smooth brain and grew some wrinkles. + +Since May, I’ve really taken a bit of a back seat and chilled out a bit, taking time to concentrate on my job, my pregnant gf, and a life I nearly blanked out through absolute commitment, some would say obsession, for the stonk. + +Quite recently I’ve seen the likes of u/dlauer, Wes, Trimbo talking about the serious issues with the stock lending market, and I wanted to draw to your attention to some of the research I gathered some time back that should be known and more widely recognised. It’s not something that I’ve seen covered in many of the DDs from the likes of u/atobitt u/heyitspixel or others, but totally forms another part of a big ol’puzzle. + +So firstly for the smooth brains that don’t read good, what’s stock or securities lending? + +“Securities lending is the practice of loaning shares of stock, commodities, derivative contracts, or other securities to other investors or firms. Securities lending requires the borrower to put up collateral, whether cash, other securities, or a letter of credit. + +When a security is loaned, the title and the ownership are also transferred to the borrower. A loan fee, or borrow fee, is charged by a brokerage to a client for borrowing shares, along with any interest due related to the loan. The loan fee and interest are charged pursuant to a Securities Lending Agreement that must be completed before the stock is borrowed by a client. Holders of securities that are loaned receive a rebate from their brokerage. + +Securities lending provides liquidity to markets, can generate additional interest income for long-term holders of securities, and allows for short-selling.” (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/securitieslending.asp) + +We’ve heard this is a trillions of dollar industry where prime brokers are absolutely cleaning up. Lending securities for fees, rebates, interest fees, then using the securities against investors playing both sides of the court. Giving with one hand, taking with the other. + +After Burry released the collateral rehypothecation document in feb (https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/ins-and-outs-of-collateral-re-use-20181221.htm) it got me really interested in the failing system, so I dug in to find out what dodgy dealings could have been going on. For anyone looking to add a wrinkle, have a read. It’s essentially why the repo and treasury markets are completely fucked, as the same toxic sludge gets lent, and re-lent, and re-borrowed, again and again, creating epic collateral chains and systemic risk, whilst making the books look just lovely. + +So on my path in the securities lending market, I came across Equilend… + +https://www.equilend.com + +“EquiLend is a securities lending platform started in late 2001[2] by a consortium of leading financial services institutions. Founding members include Barclays Global Investors, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, JPMorganChase, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Northern Trust, State Street, and UBS Warburg.” - wiki. + +Now that got me interested. Some familiar faces there right? Some that might have blown up a bit in the 2008 financial meltdown? Something not quite right here even to a complete retard. + +A consortium? So what’s that exactly? + +“A consortium is a group made up of two or more individuals, companies, or governments that work together to achieving a common objective” + +So what’s the common objective here guys? Because from what I know now I think it’s probably to make as much money as quickly as possible at the expense of a fair and free market… Fuck everyone else right? + +There is relatively no information about this company, their wiki is like 3 paragraphs and guess what’s in the last one? + +“EquiLend and its prime broker owners are currently being sued in the Southern District of New York for antitrust violations. The case survived motion to dismiss in 2018” + +Yep, that’s rights they’re in the doghouse for antitrust issues. Pretty big ones I’d say. + +Dave Lauer and Wes’ interview was a real eye opener and sort of drove me to make this post. Because this is bigger than Melvin, it’s bigger than Kenny Mayo. They are getting a lot of shit, and quite rightly because the whole Citadel set up is a fucking scam. This goes beyond them and to the Prime Brokers (PBs). The banks. Yep it’s likely those fuckers again that are going to burn the house of cards again. As we saw in that lovely bit of DD that goes by that name. + +So are they too big to fail again? That we will soon see, I believe. + +Anyway, back to Equilend. + +So what kind of shit have they been getting up to you ask? + +Well, I came across a class action from 2018 that I think y’all gonna like. It’s a pretty damning report. + +To summarise it see the following exert on the case background: + +“On August 17, 2017, Cohen Milstein Sellers &amp; Toll PLLC and Quinn Emanuel Urquhart &amp; Sullivan LLP filed suit in the Southern District Court of New York alleging collusion among six of the world’s largest investment banks to prevent modernization of the $1.7 trillion stock loan market. Plaintiffs, including the Iowa Public Employees' Retirement System, the Orange County Employees Retirement System and the Sonoma County Employees' Retirement Association, allege that Bank of America, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS conspired to overcharge investors and maintain the power they hold over the stock loan market, obstructing multiple efforts to create competitive electronic exchanges that would benefit both stock lenders and borrowers. + +The stock loan market is a critical component of a strong economy, enabling trading activities like short selling and hedging while also ensuring that financial systems operate efficiently. The plaintiffs in this lawsuit(…)—claim that investors who borrowed and lent stock through the stock lending market were and are being harmed because six investment banks took collective, illegal action to boycott, attack and acquire multiple entities who tried to increase competition and lower costs in the stock loan market. + +The banks named as defendants in this suit routinely took steps together to block the development of competitive exchange platforms like AQS (in the United States) and SL-x (in Europe) and the impact of government regulatory reforms. For example: When the investments banks learned that Bank of New York was using AQS for stock loan transactions, Goldman Sachs threatened to return billions in collateral and never do business with BONY again. BONY promptly abandoned its plans. Various defendants took similar steps with well-known hedge funds too, including SAC Capital, Renaissance Capital, and others – telling them they would not connect them to an AQS, and, if they did not like it, they could take their business elsewhere. + +As AQS’s executives made the rounds of the stock lending industry and meeting with the organizations that would be part of the re-engineering of critical market infrastructure, one such institution openly stated that the AQS plan, “[sounded] great, but who’s going to start [your] car in the morning?” + +When SL-x met with two Goldman Sachs executives to introduce them to an emerging product – one which would have threatened Defendants’ dominance of the stock loan market – the Goldman executives were frank: if they were to allow a central trading platform with counterparty clearing, it would encourage other competitors to enter the stock lending market. “I ain’t supporting this,” said Goldman Sachs Managing Director William Conley. “You ain’t going to get this done,” echoed Brad Levy, then Global Head of Goldman Sachs’ Principal Strategic Investments Group. + +Stock lending involves the temporary transfer of a stock from one investor to another, typically from large institutional investors who hold large amounts of publicly-traded securities (pension funds, mutual funds, university endowments, etc.) to entities who want to sell stock short. It is a common practice that helps both the borrowers and lenders of stock generate additional income in their portfolios. + +The stock loan market has not kept pace with the technological progress that has improved other financial markets. Stock lending remains an opaque, over-the-counter (OTC) trading market in which there is no central marketplace for stock borrowers and lenders to trade directly with one another or see real-time pricing that could help secure better financial terms. Instead, stock lenders and borrowers must transact through intermediaries, also known as “prime brokers,” who take a massive cut of nearly every stock loan transaction. The six investment banks named in today’s lawsuit are the dominant prime brokers in the U.S., effectively controlling the stock loan market and gobbling up approximately 60 percent of the revenues. + +This suit alleges that, in order to protect their profits, these large investment banks have been conspiring since at least 2009 through a company called EquiLend, which they control, to prevent participants from accessing marketplaces where they could benefit from direct, all-to-all trading and thereby secure themselves the best prices. (All-to-all trading means that stock lenders can offer a stock to every other stock borrower in the market and select the best price.) Denying others this level of access forces trades in the market to go through their prime brokers, which is how the banks are able to reap tremendous financial benefit. In 2016, for example, these six institutions skimmed approximately 60 percent of the $9.15 billion in stock lending revenue alone, despite performing a service for which they bear virtually no risk. Any other arrangement would have substantially reduced the need for their services, and the premiums that they charge would have been untenable. + +The coordinated effort by the prime brokers to stymie their competition in the stock lending market took numerous forms. After boycotting securities lending participants who participated on other platforms —AQS in the U.S. and SL-x in Europe—the banks either purchased the intellectual property underlying those exchanges (SL-x) or the exchange itself (AQS), effectively shelving the efforts to improve stock lending for investors. The purchase of AQS by bank-controlled EquiLend, which the last piece of the conspiratorial puzzle as it gave Defendants complete control over all gateways to central clearing in the U.S., even had a secret code name at Morgan Stanley – Project Gateway.” + +https://www.cohenmilstein.com/case-study/stock-loan-antitrust-litigation + +It really is a fascinating case and rings all sorts of alarm bells in my mind. Collusion? Antitrust? Monopolisation? Competition law? These banks are literally running the show, boycotting and driving competition into the ground before buying up their tech and IP. Skimming huge profits from the stock lending (60% reported at the time of this case in a $1.7trillion lending market), - d rehypothecating securities possibly over and over and over again. + +Dude, why the fuck can this be allowed to happen? + +My only answer can be it’s the power that they own, the money they move that can pay anyone off and put governments and federal reserves in their back pocket. + +I advise you to read the class action linked here - https://www.cohenmilstein.com/sites/default/files/2017-11-17%20Amended%20Complaint%20dckt%2073_0.pdf + +The language used and the detail is actually quite shocking. + +Whistleblowers have come out and spoke. In the case that these banks call themselves the ’five families’, likening themselves to a mafia style operation: + +“Remarkably, in numerous private conversations, multiple personnel from the Prime Broker Defendants used the same phrasing to describe the stock loan operations of the Prime Broker Defendants collectively. + +Specifically, these personnel characterized the Prime Broker Defendants as “the five families” of the stock loan market—a reference to the five major New York City organized crimes families of the Italian American Mafia. + +For example, during a February 26, 2013 meeting with SL-x executives, one Credit Suisse director who was also an EquiLend board member explained that EquiLend was like “the mafia run by five crime families,” and proceeded to explain that, as a result, nothing would happen in the market with regard to SL-x’s platform unless the Prime Broker Defendants jointly allowed it to happen.” + +“On April 10, 2014, Credit Suisse managing director Shawn Sullivan recommended “get[ting] all the members of the five families together” to discuss AQS and related stock loan issues that had emerged in the wake of a recent regulatory development. + +On another occasion, the head of securities lending at Bank of America similarly expressed an intent to convene a meeting of “the five families.” The fact that multiple Prime Broker Defendants used the same mafia reference to describe themselves collectively shows that they knew they had formed an illegal cartel. Indeed, it indicates they were proud of it.” + +Yeah that’s right, our ‘trusted’ banks are no better than a crime gang, monopolising and manipulating the market because they’re ‘too big to fail’ + +I won’t cite the case anymore. It’s 144 pages of gold dust that you should all have a look through it you’re interested. But was enough for me to add another piece to this saga of the corrupt system we are living in. + +But now we’re all learning about it and the fucks won’t get away with it for much longer. GGensler is coming in and I have faith that he’ll bring about some reformation, it seems that’s already begun. + +This whole thing ties to the volume of dark pool and OTC trading we’re seeing that’s growing in recent years. That’s routing trades unfairly and enabling MMs to manipulate and move markets, whilst Main Street bends over and gets fucked. + +And what’s more, we know the treasury market is fucked right? + +Well guess what? + +https://www.pionline.com/ja/node/520076 + +“EquiLend adds Treasuries to lending portfolio” in 2005. + +So these mafia cocks are fucking it all up, pissing on our pensions and education and welfare, all for profit and control. + +And apparently the case against them has been dropped… hmmm (see links at the footer) + +Now if this ain’t cause for a revolution then I don’t know what is… + +Quite a lot of info here guys, and I’ve more to add and will be adding when I have time to further this research. I welcome others to get in touch and add or share comments and feedback. Please share this with your comrades. Education and exposure is everything. + +You can get me on Twitter too ‘@PieceFriendly’ that I’ve just set up and where I’ll try and post interesting updates as we change the fucking world. + +The system needs to change. + +We are the catalyst. + +Buy and hold. + +See you on the moon 🌙 🚀🦍🤲🏼💎 + + +TLDR: the stock and treasury lending market is being run by a ‘mafia’ collective of big banks (no surprises who they are), who are controlling, monopolising and manipulating the market. + +This post details my own views based on research that I’ve carried out and information I’ve gathered. None of this is financial advice. + +EDIT 1: the downvoters are out! Please don’t let them win. The sources of information presented in this post are real and are out there for you all to see. + +EDIT 2: this started off with so much traction in the first hour, but seems to be dying big time. Are people able to bury this post or something, so no one can see it? + +https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1M72XG + +https://www.securitiesfinancetimes.com/securitieslendingnews/regulationarticle.php?article_id=223277&amp;navigationaction=regulationnews&amp;newssection=regulation + +https://finadium.com/judge-dismisses-qs-holdco-lawsuit-against-prime-brokers-based-on-claim-ownership/ + +https://finopsinfo.com/trading/equilend-prime-brokers-sued-collusion-or-fair-game/ + +https://www.globalcustodian.com/securities-lending-lawsuit-wall-street-banks-dropped/ +So my industry is shattered (work in theatre) and I’m looking to change career, has anyone changed career 10 years into their current career? Do you have any advice? +I have $400 to my name. My car needs work done. I decided to surrender the car back to the bank. I have no idea when they're going to pick it up. I have bad credit, Inflation is killing me and I won't be able to get another car under a decent APR unless I put a huge lump some of money down. I'm so tired of doing everything on my own. My parents have no money to help. I have no money to go to school to start another career. +That is all. Regardless of what price does, I’ve got that Bitcoin. It can’t be confiscated, censored, and the fed can’t print more to make their elite billionaire buddies rich. With 36 million multi-millionaires in the world and 21 million Bitcoin, this one’s mine. That means something to me and I suspect in the years to come more will feel the same way. +*Firstly I am always open to constructive criticism and healthy discussion in the comments. Should anything I say be proven false, I will promptly edit my post. I hate that I even have to say this at this point, but do not call this FUD until you look at my post history. There has been a witch hunt going on labeling everything as FUD or a shill lately. So please save your comment until after you have read the entire post and checked my history.* + +# 0) Introduction + +It's been a while since we have talked about shorting through ETFs so I decided we should have a look at what has been going on and look at some interesting activity I uncovered. + +To kick us off, let me remind those of you who don't know how shorting through an ETF works. + +In order to short a specific stock through an ETF, it is very simple. You short the ETF and then buy the underlying of stocks separately that you do not want to short. + +For example, say you have an ETF called STONK that contains: + +1 share of Amazon + +1 share of Microsoft + +1 share of Apple + +1 share of Gamestop + +You would take out a short position on the STONK ETF and then buy 1 share of Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, but not Gamestop. This ensures that the ETF itself does not lose much value from the shorting (if any) and makes sure that it does not start to drag down the other underlying stock's values. It shorts GME by proxy when you don't buy underlying GME shares. + +Now that you are up to speed and understand the relevance, let us dig into some of the ETF's that contain the most GME. + +*Data for the percentages were sourced from* [*etf.com*](https://www.etf.com/stock/GME)*.* + +*Note: The GME charts in pink are only going to show closing prices and not the daily peaks and valleys. So interday peaks and valleys of GME are muted. All charts are YTD daily.* + +# 1) GAMR + +GAMR ETF is currently the largest holder of GME by percentage at 4.87%. I will have GME drawn in pink on these charts for comparison against the ETFs. + +[GAMR](https://preview.redd.it/imnkalkt77b71.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=df53eb2959642ea7b96fc20984695eb574bd1f49) + +I'm sure you can see right away something that catches the eye. *If you guessed volume, you would be correct.* It's interesting that we have very large spikes of volume recently comparable in size to GAMR's volume back in the January sneeze. Also note that the price doesn't even change! The dates for the spikes as of recent are 6/14, 6/21, 6/22, 6/28, 7/6, and 7/12. What grabs me here is that those dates fall on Monday, Monday, Tuesday, Monday, Tuesday, and Monday respectively. **To reiterate, that is massive spikes of volume every Monday or Tuesday for the last 5 weeks.** + +I am not going to speculate much on this further as I am not sure what it is tied to. Though the first thing that pops into my mind is T+2 where shares for options are due after the previous Friday. But again, I have no proof for this, it's just a guess and possibly something someone would like to look into. + +What is also interesting to note about this chart is the times that by percentage GME has deviated from GAMR. Remember how the past month and a half has felt a lot like back in February? Well, compare February to now and notice how disconnected the movement of the two securities has deviated during those periods (highlighted in blue below). + +&#x200B; + +[GAMR vs. GME](https://preview.redd.it/a46huxa4a7b71.png?width=1476&format=png&auto=webp&s=48ee3862be7ff9fdfdf102d9fc5153efbc4a1976) + +I suspect that this difference is attributed to the continued use of shorting via the GAMR ETF. But what's interesting is that in the second chunk, GME is actually above GAMR rather than back in February where it was below. There could be multiple reasons for this flip, but I most suspect that it is because the shorters are not buying the underlying shares in the ETF to keep them propped up. It's cheaper for them in the short term to not have to worry about buying those other shares. In doing, so the underlying securities will drop in price causing the ETF to also drop in price. The middle section between the two chunks follows GME fairly closely. This is either because they were break even on shorting GAMR during that period, or not using GAMR at all to short GME. + +# 2) XRT + +I'd bet it's been a while since you have heard this ticker's name. XRT is the second-largest holder of GME by percentage at 3.44%. XRT is interesting for a few reasons. I recall XRT being the focus of the shorted ETFs for quite a bit. This is likely because out of all the ETF's this one's price is most tied to GME. That's because it is comprised of 3.44% GME but also has about 23.82 million dollars of GME shares, where GAMR only has about 5.69 million dollars in GME shares. In essence, XRT is somewhat more important because it physically holds about 4.5x the GME shares than what GAMR holds and is a large percent of the ETF in comparison to others. Below I have drawn horizontal lines of the post-February support and resistances. Red is resistance, green is support, yellow is both. + +[XRT](https://preview.redd.it/b9w6i5mld7b71.png?width=1481&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7ff7930c67a01dc606d2f6a63a7ef787c8beeb4) + +So there are a few things going on here that caught my eye. The first thing is that XRT has been in an upward moving channel pretty much since the sneeze ended. It also appears to be inversely exponential with a ceiling focused on the 99$ price point. Meanwhile, GME has seen massive dips and rips. To me, this tells me that XRT has been continually used to short GME. You can also notice that the only time GME comes close to XRT percentage-wise is when we have our rips. The rest of the time it stays consistently below XRT by a similar percentage. This also tells me that compared to GAMR, they have been able to consistently buy the other underlying securities for XRT. This is why you see consistent growth on XRT with little inflection when GME rips or dips. + +One of the more interesting horizontal lines I drew is the yellow one which acted as a resistance point, but now I believe will act as a support. You can see XRT bounce off this resistance 6 times before finally breaking through on 6/8, which is our last peak on GME's price at about 350$. What's really interesting though is the timing of some of these resistance tests. + +&#x200B; + +[GME vs. XRT](https://preview.redd.it/hyt1r3rij7b71.png?width=1483&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f9fb17cea6a254d6152ad4772040c068b53b7a6) + +I have highlighted the most interesting points in time with a vertical blue line. On the first two dates 3/10 and 3/15, we can see that this is the first time it bounces off that yellow resistance line, where GME is at its relative peak of around 350$ interday. The third blue line I drew where XRT tests that resistance is on 5/10. Which is the relative bottom before our subsequent run-up to 350$+ again. The last date is 6/2 where it finally broke through that yellow resistance line. + +**The takeaway from this bit of data is that on 6/2, GME's price movement overpowered the shorting that was happening through XRT forcing them to buy more of the other underlying stocks than they would have liked to.** + +Additionally, it has become consistently more expensive for them to short GME this way and **XRT is extremely close to being above the value it was during the January sneeze.** This is a major resistance point at about 99$ and breaking through this barrier would in essence make all the shorting they did through XRT all for nothing at the end of the day (not that it ever mattered because GME will moon eventually.) + +The last thing I would like to point out is the minor volume spike around 5/19. This to me looks like an, *"Oh shit. Short that bitch."* volume spike just days before our last major run-up. You can see the same spike back on 2/25 days before the first run-up to 350$ after the sneeze. + +# 3) RETL + +RETL is the third-largest holder of GME by percentage at 2.87%. There is nothing here that catches my eye except for the fact it follows the trend of XRT and GME very similarly. I am including it for context. + +[RETL](https://preview.redd.it/46k77quhn7b71.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9af4f447cb97000026e018d79486c68c7ac979e) + +# 4) XSVM + +XSVM is the fourth-largest holder of GME by percentage at 2.45%. The trend is similar to XRT but it more closely follows the movement of GME as a whole. What's interesting about this one is the volume. Why has volume been increasing with a major spike last week much like GAMR? + +*Strange activity.* + +[XSVM](https://preview.redd.it/iwzvzkhrn7b71.png?width=1477&format=png&auto=webp&s=81d1f1358ba59441c3776baaf20f5286e7735257) + +# 5) RWJ + +RWJ is the fifth-largest holder of GME by percentage at 2.11%. This one is mostly included for additional context. However, there are some interesting things here. Firstly, the volume overall is consistently much higher than it was before January (not shown). It does also have spikes of volume at times when GME's price needed to be suppressed for the shorter. + +Have a look at 2/25, 3/23, 4/5, 5/11, and 5/24. I've highlighted them with blue vertical lines. Drawn with an orange vertical line is 7/1 which is an interesting outlier because GME didn't lose a lot of value that day. And since that day GME has had a major drop off in volume. This suggests this may be a pre-emptive short to an imminent run-up like we see on 2/25. + +&#x200B; + +[RWJ](https://preview.redd.it/7yzcujm8q7b71.png?width=1479&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc74133d9b6f7fb8b3223b536285b03cc3281856) + +&#x200B; + +# 6) Conclusion + +As I state in all my DDs, I attempt to not draw too many conclusions on my own unless they are obvious logical leaps. I firmly believe it is the job of a DD writer to present the facts and leave the speculation and discussion to happen in the comments. This creates a healthy learning environment and allows you guys to chat with myself and others to reach solid conclusions (if there is any.) With that being said, here are a few opinions on takeaways that I got out of this: + +1. Shorting through ETF's is still happening. Though I don't personally consider it a major factor in GME's price suppression. It's just one of the many things they can do. +2. As of the past month give or take, strange activity has occurred in some of these ETFs. It's my opinion that the new activity on them likely has to do with a run-up in the near future. I'm not going to speculate any further on that. +3. It appears to me that it is possible that as of July or so, that shorting through these ETFs has started to become a problem where they are now having to throw money into shorting these ETFs that they will not make back, where they normally would have as the underlying securities increased in value. +4. Regardless of my opinions anywhere in this write-up, it seems clear that there has been some recent strange activity as of about the start of July. I want people to look more into this and give their own thoughts. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +*I will add in any edits below here if there are any. I will add in any supporting information or contradictory information. Please be patient with me as I will try to edit as soon as possible.* +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +Diamonds are the original shitcoin. Nobody knows where they come from, what they’re worth, and they’re all pre-mined. Cartel companies encourage you to hodl for a lifetime- they insist “a diamond is forever”. Every engagement ring makes the buyer a bagholder. And there is no exchange to sell them on- if you’re lucky enough to find a buyer, you lose*(from loose) half the value immediately. Plus, they have had 75 years of advertising shilling for them, in every facet of popular culture. + +Furthermore, diamonds have been complicit in government coups, humanitarian violence, child slavery, and ecological & environmental disaster. The movie “Blood Diamond” and the song “Diamonds from Sierra Leone” are good examples of the turmoil created by the diamond industry. +If you’d prefer to hang on to your capital and use a factory made diamond backed by your investment, check out https://ouroborostoken.com/ + + +Then they have an emergency fund with like 500k. Meanwhile I’m just barely making 50a year🥲 + +and yes i live in a HCOL area too + +I see it everywhere including all or majority of my personal friends and here too on reddit. + +Its as if, if your not making 100k or over, you're a failure +Everyone talks about missed opportunities, but sometimes the opportunities are right in front of them and they fail to take advantage, to recognise them. People are still sleeping on *”insert your favourite coin here”*. If you want to buy BTC or ETH, do it now! If you want to buy ADA, NANO, DOT, MONERO, ETH, MATIC, AAVE, ALGO, UNI, LTC or any from the 4,500~ cryptos, do it now ! + +Sometimes, luck is when opportunity meets preparation. The opportunity of a lifetime has been in front of people for a months if not years now! Many people dismiss crypto because they don’t understand it. Instead of giving an hour of their time to begin learning about the problems that crypto solves. + +Stop listening to good ol’ banks. They don’t care about you. Be aware, and have clear frame of mind. + +Born too late to explore the Earth. Born too early to explore the stars. But born just in time to invest in Cryptocurrency. Don’t hesitate to take opportunities. It’s your time now ! +I make $60k/ year with a nice bonus that I do not invest (I use it for home improvements yearly). + +Anyway, I’m in my mid 20’s and put 15% of my salary away. My company matches 10% and I currently have $28k in my 401k. Vanguard says I need to be saving more, but I put more in my 401k than I do in my savings. Is this right? + +Edit: went to work and when I popped back on to check this ended up getting more answers than I thought. Thank you all for your help! +This sub shilles coins that are already made huge returns. Why? Because general public gain access to cutting edge tech, newest crypto trends only after those coins/tokens gain momentum and make x3-10. How many times MATIC, SOL, ONE, AXIE was shilled here before they exploded? + +ADA, ALGO, BTC, ETH etc are great projects and have wonderful future but to assume that they are going to give you biggest returns **in the following year** is delusional. Where as long term - most probably. + +Set your priorities straight, DOYR and hodl. I’m not going to tell you which coin is going to be next x100 or more but it is obvious that following niches are going to disrupt the whole world: + +1. Decentralized identities +2. Decentralized ticketing +3. Metaverse +4. Blockchain powered Gaming +5. Social tokens +6. Everything related to zero knowledge poof (ZKsnarks, zkrollups etc) + +Find reliable project in those niches and invest as much as you can afford. Wait for 1-1,5 year and watch the whole Reddit shill those coins/tokens after you already made a fortune on them. +This sub shilles coins that are already made huge returns. Why? Because general public gain access to cutting edge tech, newest crypto trends only after those coins/tokens gain momentum and make x3-10. How many times MATIC, SOL, ONE, AXIE was shilled here before they exploded? + +ADA, ALGO, BTC, ETH etc are great projects and have wonderful future but to assume that they are going to give you biggest returns **in the following year** is delusional. Where as long term - most probably. + +Set your priorities straight, DOYR and hodl. I’m not going to tell you which coin is going to be next x100 or more but it is obvious that following niches are going to disrupt the whole world: + +1. Decentralized identities +2. Decentralized ticketing +3. Metaverse +4. Blockchain powered Gaming +5. Social tokens +6. Everything related to zero knowledge poof (ZKsnarks, zkrollups etc) + +Find reliable project in those niches and invest as much as you can afford. Wait for 1-1,5 year and watch the whole Reddit shill those coins/tokens after you already made a fortune on them. +Let's say you've pulled through this shit and you're finally in a place in life where you're financially safe and stable and have free time. Are you guys planning on getting into politics in any capacity once you feel you've got time to spare? + +I'm not a fan of politics, I don't trust politicians and I've never expected them to do anything that would help me, but I think it's important for working-class people to get involved. Take a look at your politicians, wherever you live. Who are they? What are they like? Wealthy people, in 99% of the cases. We're under-represented. We need to do something about it or our interests will never be addressed in a relevant matter. + +How do you guys feel about politics? Are you guys politically active? And are you guys planning on being active once you're in a better position? +Posted this in another thread but people really need to be aware. This is obviously not a fully comprehensive list of steps necessary, but a solid base line to begin taking control of your privacy! + + +Remember, it's not whether or not you have nothing to hide, it's whether or not they have a right to look! + +Compartmentalize your shit! 5 email address minimum! One for banking, one for retail purchases, one for social media, one for general use and one for spam! Use a good solid end to end encrypted email service (I use protonmail)! + +DO NOT USE A U.S.A. BASED VPN. SERIOULSY. THEIR INTERNET PRIVACY LAWS ARE A JOKE. DO YOUR RESEARCH. (I use protonvpn (same company as protonmail)) + +Use Brave Browser running ublock origin and privacy badger extensions. Use DuckDuckGo as your primary search engine. Everything you even type into Google (without even searching or pressing enter) is logged and saved to your profile forever so they can constantly target you more ad revenue! KILL IT. (Brave isn't the be all end all browser but it comes with the most privacy respecting features enabled and baked in by default so the easiest to get you up and over the finish line without having to learn a fuck ton.) + +Use a password manager like Likepass or Bitwarden. Get all of your fucking passwords OUT OF CHROME & FIREFOX. Don't store shit there holy shit please. Get them out, use Bitwarden or something to generate new passwords at the character maximum for all your accounts and use a long ass Master Password. Use your favorite line or quote from a song or movie with 1337 speak. (Everyone knows that everyone's password goes "Capital letter, characters, numbers, special character". Quit doing that! + +You wanna be real fucking safe? Do all the things I said above then set up a Virutal Machine running Linux Tails or something and only log in to your superstonk reddit account from that VM behind your VPN (on your VM AND on your primary PC), and only ever log in to it from there. + +Use signal to text. Get all your friends on signal and only talk about GME on signal. + +I'm just a lowly unemployed internet security nerd studying for his CySA+. Go check out TheHatedOne on youtube (he also has a subreddit here) for more in depth info. + +2FA should be a must! Try and stay away from Google owned authenticator apps! + +It's never too late to take control of both your finances AND your data. You've already learned the scary truth behind the stock market from browsing this sub, you better be damn sure you're educated on the fucked up truth behind your data. + +Buy. Hodl. Simp for no one. Not financial advice I have more chromosomes flying around than the Rambo movies have bullets. + +EDIT: Little tipsy so will be editing throughout the night as I think of more things and better steps! <3 u apes :) + +EDIT 2: In response to "Isn't this a little bit paranoid?" and "Most topics might be over most average Joe's heads." + +They're uneducated on internet security on purpose! Much like how we're not supposed to learn how the stock market works and how we dumb money should hand over our slave wages to the smart boys and girls so they can protect us. Harvesting and selling your data is a TRILLION dollar a year industry and it's only getting more and more profitable. You're not supposed to know how to keep yourself safe, so that they can keep pimping you without your knowledge for tendies you'll never see or benefit from. + +Every app out there demands privileges far above what is necessary for them to function. Every app out there is tracking and recording every little thing you do on your phone all in an attempt to better shove ads into your face and emotionally manipulate you into spending more money. Are these technologies inherently nefarious? No. It's just good old fashioned capitalism. Does that mean they can't be put to nefarious uses? You bet your ass they can be, and the dinosaurs writing laws are completely clueless on any of it. It's truly up to us to educate ourselves and others. + +We're rapidly approaching a point in time in which banks will approve or deny you a loan based on your friends on Facebook's credit scores. Where spitting into a tube to send to 23andme just to find out you're white will increase your health insurance premiums when companies purchase that data and find you're genetically more likely to die of a heart attack young (combine that with your bank data and everything you buy from the grocery store and how often your card is swiped at McDonalds). + +Everything I listed in my post above should be considered the floor for knowledge. Yes it's a steep climb (I personally feel at the bottom of the mountain myself), but it's absolutely critical in order to safely function in modern society. If you're uneducated on how these systems work, then you're at the mercy of the Tech Tyranny. +I’m going to leave my keys and transponder in the kitchen. I assume that will be enough. Will I get arrested? Or will they just bill me? I’m really scared + +edit: I live in Las Vegas + +I am going to the leasing office tmrw morning to see if we can make a deal + +I apologize if I sound like an ass +https://twitter.com/renepickhardt/status/1036032671397437446?s=19 + +Stuff just got real. Real as in applied in a real world business in a real world usecase recklessly using real money. + +People opened channels to our node and paid their bill and other people did not open channels to us but their payments were successfully routed and arrived in literally microseconds as well anyway. + +I am herewith declaring the end of the scaling debate. This problem is solved. We can now refocus on the actual challenges like fungability and privacy in Bitcoin. + +I wanna throw out the biggest thanks to Rene and all the other guys who I cannot possibly name who have contributed. Also to Jef, Christian and Josh of fulmo who did an unbelievable job bringing the people together here and making this development possible. + +This kind of innovation feels like the early days of Bitcoin all over again. + + + +*edit: typo* + +*edit 2: we've come a long way: +https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/62uw23/lightning_network_is_working_room77_is_accepting/* + +First off, I want to say that the following post is utter nonsense. In fact, I don't recommend reading it. I may have eaten too many yellow crayons I thought were bananas this week (Or was I trying to eat yellow crayons but ate bananas? Idr) but I think I stumbled onto something. + +Most people on this sub are Millenials (speculation). Most Millenials grew up playing video games. We have a passion for them. But we never really picked up a lot of practical skills from playing video games. *Until now*. + +As we all know, Robinhood and similar apps **game-ified** investing. They made cool colors to show us how we did. It's not enough to show green and red on the app so the entire fucking screen has to be colored so we know what the fuck is going on. So we could say "Ohhhh green good red bad." It's like the slot machine except, unlike slots, investing odds can be changed by doing work. Nobody used to do the work, but now that all the work is on the phone--the same device we have been using to play the game--it still feels like part of the game. + +So we do some research and now we actually have a leg up in the game. It's like when you play StarCraft and you suck but then you read an article on how to not suck at StarCraft. Well, we read posts on GME and we sucked less at predicting the movement on that stock. + +Why are video games even fun? None of it is real. But it's a **shared** experience that you can have with your friends and peers, or, at the very least, discuss with them. It's the consensus that something cool happened on a screen that makes games fun on a social level, even though it's all fake. Well none of the money movements we see on the screen are real. Sure, it's all documented, but it's still virtual. Nobody's going to your bank and moving cash into RH's bank. This all works because we all agree that it works. + +Now get a bunch of apes to play the game after reading the rules and even, for some of us, practicing, and you've got the beginning of a movement to a new era of trading and investing. + +Am I making any sense or am I insane even for a WSBer? + +Edit: Wow guys! Thank you! I have never received awards before!! I like rockets because I think they are food colored bananas!!! 🚀🚀🚀🍌 🍌 🍌 +I have been here several years (long enough to remember a man crying in wolf mask as his paper apple gains disappeared on a live stream) and this gme run was crazy entertaining. I did not partake but watching this on the news and seeing the subreddit logo was great. However, it’s reached the point where it’s ruining this sub. Jeff Bezos stepped down and Amazon and Google reported earnings which used to be big days on this sub, but I see nothing but a sea of gme. Thanks for checking out this subreddit but when this gme run ends please post your loss porn so I can beat off and then leave this subreddit. Also the guy who lost 765k today your loss porn was great you can stay. That’s the yolos this sub was built on not one share of gme bets. +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +Renaissance Technologies is the Greatest Hedge Fund of All Time. + +Founded by math genius Jim Simons, it's flagship fund Medallion has an average annual gross return of 66.1% since 1988. + +With an average annual net return of 39.1% after fees. + +The Medallion Fund is available only to current and past employees and their families, closing to outside investors in 1993. + +Since, 1988, the Medallion Fund has racked up trading profits of more than $100 billion. + +Now, I mentioned a net return of 39.1% after fees: well, the fees have been greater than the usual '2 and 20' structure (which means a 2% management fee and a 20% performance fee). + +Medallion has had a 5% management fee, and from 1988 to 2001, a 20% performance fee and from 2002 until now, a 44% performance fee. + +Notice in particular the return in 2007 and 2008, a time when many were completely REKT. + +In 2008, a return (after these monstrous fees) of 82.4% + +**To make us all feel terrible, if you had invested $1000 into Medallion in 1988 you would have today, after fees, around $23MM**. + +That certainly beats inflation... + +So, how did they do it and what can we take away from this story (aside from searing jealousy)? + +**PART 1: The Early Stages** + +Early on, Simons had a goal of algorithmic investing. + +Remember, this was the late 1980s before the phrase big data became a household name and most investment decisions were made over the phone based on gut with the likes of Jordan Belfort trying to scam you! + +“I don’t want to have to worry about the market every minute. I want models that will make money while I sleep,” Simons said. “A pure system without humans interfering.” + +Simons hired Sandor Straus to help him collect historic commodity information + +Straus’ was essential to Renaissance Technologies early success in commodities trading. + +He became somewhat of a data guru ensuring pricing was consistent and accurate, checking his numbers matched with yearbook data provided by commodity exchanges, Wall Street Journal, other newspapers and anything else he could get his hands on. + +Over time, Straus and his colleagues discovered additional historical pricing data, helping the development of new predictive models. + +In fact, some of the stock market data they'd later find went back as far as the 1800s! + +At the time, the team couldn't do much with the data, BUT the ability to search modern history to see how markets reacted to unusual events would later help Simon's team build models to profit from market collapses and so called 'Black Swan events'. + +The return in 2008 is a prime example of that. + +Commodity markets were relatively simple and RenTec found success in deploying simple trading strategies. + +The fund wasn't bothered as to why these trading patterns existed - the only thing that mattered is that they occurred in a predictable and actionable way. + +**PART 2: Intellectual Capital** + +Now in order to build these quantitative models, RenTec is composed of mathematicians and physicists of the highest order and it has even been described as the "best math department in the world". + +Therefore, their quantitative researchers are well aware of the problems with data mining, over-fitting and spurious signals. + +We are taking A LOT of data: 9TB per day in fact. + +RenTec originally focussed on trading commodities, currencies and futures. + +The strategies were mainly trending (i.e. price will continue to move in same direction) and mean reversion (i.e. price will return to original value). + +Simons was experimenting in the stock market (equities) since the late 1980s but the strategy that had worked well on futures was not working on equities. + +In 1995, David Magerman, an early employee, spotted a line of simulation code used for the equity trading system showing the S&P 500 at an unusually low level. + +This test code appeared to use a figure from back in 1991 that was roughly half the current number. + +It had been written as a static figure, rather than as a variable that updated with each move in the market. + +Magerman also spotted an algebraic error elsewhere in the code. + +Finally, the simulator’s algorithms could finally recommend an ideal portfolio for the trading system to execute. + +The resulting portfolio seemed to generate big profits, at least according to Magerman’s calculations. + +Only then did Renaissance commit significant capital into the equity markets, and since then...well, pretty good.... + +**PART 3: Infrastructure** + +Now I mentioned before about the sheer amount of data RenTec is utilising. + +Big data has obviously caught on, but many hedge funds continue to under-perform the market and even some hedge funds focussed on quant methods haven't fared too well. + +The problem, and one of the reasons RenTec is so special, is the barrier to entry is so incredibly high: + +Building a data pipeline and the infrastructure required to process that data is no trivial matter. + +To then get profitable trading signals from that processed data is a mammoth task. + +RenTec has been in the game for over 30 years, constantly refining their algorithms and improving the efficiency of their data processing pipeline. + +They have completely automated the process of signal discovery: + +They don't hire researchers to manually derive novel insights or trading models from data, and they don't really bother with exclusive sources of data. Instead, they hire researchers to improve methods for automatically processing vast amounts of arbitrary data and extracting profitable trading signals from it. + +RenTec has automated the data processing and feature extraction pipeline end to end. + +The data is a pure abstraction to them. They don't bother with forming hypotheses and trying to find data to test them, they allow their algorithms to actively discover new correlations from the ground up. So many quantitative funds advertise how much data they work with, and how they have all these exotic sources of data at their disposal - but the data does not matter. The models for the data do not matter. + +The mathematics of *efficiently processing* that data are what matters. + +**CONCLUSION:** + +**The takeaway from this is the following: do not day trade, you will get REKT.** + +**You are competing with immense infrastructure and intellectual capital of the highest level.** +* 22 in burgerland +* elderly guardian on death bed +* Only person physically able to work +* had to cancel gym membership cause can't afford it anymore +* no car +* no parents +* >!no gf!< + +&#x200B; + +I desperately want to climb out of this lonely pit of depression and poverty and addiction but why does it seem like every step I take I get shoved 10 paces back??? I've sent so many applications out through various platforms, not even McDonalds will hire me, Target rejected me three fucking times. I have fast food, retail AND warehouse experience so what fucking gives? I enjoy my current job but don't get many hours so I need a 2nd job to sustain and contribute a heavy amount to bills at home. I'm literally typing this on a raspberry pi cause my desktop gpu died. It's probably cheaper to just construct a dingy gpu myself at this point. Can't afford to go to therapy anymore so I stay collecting "mental health" books to do it myself but then again, what's the point of spending time getting better mentally If I'm going to just get evicted, have my lights cut off, or fail college cause of this mother fucking stunted single board l00nux computer? I lay on my futon and cry myself to sleep only to open my eyes in the morning and do it ALL over again. I've been poor and dependent as fuck all my life, I can't imagine a situation where I escape this hell hole + +I must have sinned heavily in the past life, I don't understand why this is happening or how to get out. Too much of a p\*ssy to kill myself, I wouldn't because I'd hate to hurt my family that way but It crosses my mind often. I know that there's lots of people who made it out from way worse situations but holy shit, I don't know what to do. I have no significant figure for guidance or support, I have so many incentives to just waste my life away getting high and watching porn from sunrise to sunset but I don't want that. What the fuck is the point of this? Just meaningless suffering with no hope of getting better anytime soon? +So I recently got accepted into a 3 month internship where I would be working full time over that period. The salary that they offered was around 80k pa (in essence i will be making ~20k during the period, and little to nothing for the rest of the year as I'll be at uni). Is it okay if I don't declare HECS on my tax declaration to reduce the amount of tax withheld? +Alright, retards. Tomorrow, [Robinhood will continue trying to fuck us like our wives boyfriends fuck our wives.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/robinhood-to-continue-trading-limits-on-monday-customers-can-still-only-buy-one-gamestop-share.html) But how can we fuck them back? + +For those of us who haven't migrated to a more investor friendly platform, they are still allowing purchase of up to 5 options contracts. There's nothing stopping those of you who like this stock from buying itm contracts and exercising them as soon as you can. Turning a 1 share limit into a 501 share limit. + +I'll be 💎🖐️ til this wonderful stock hits 100k. + +Thank you and fuck Robinhood. 🦍🍌🦍🍌💎🖐️💎🍆 + +Edit: forgot to call someone a retard + +Edit 2: OR just set up an account with fidelity, which can be set up and ready to go instantly. Seriously, avoid robinhoopla if you can. This post is just giving you another option + +EDIT 3 AND MOST IMPORTANTLY: Anything other than GME is the wrong play. The fact that they're letting you purchase a bunch of other "limited" stocks but only ONE of gamestonk should be a big fat red screaming sign that GME is the winner here. 📈 +Very long story short but here are some key elements. + +1.) We come from a v.traditional Asian background where respecting your elders is a bit of big thing +2.) I am academically more qualified than him and I’ve not always had luck advising him or telling him better ways of doing things… Long standing relationship issue where I may come off a little bit condescending. I’ve tried to work on it from my end, things have gotten a bit better as we’ve gotten older +3.) Mum and dad have a number of properties (4) in and around our state/city and are retiring to India to set up their own business +4.) I’m middle child, owe have a younger sister. +5.) We all still live at home together. I’m getting married in Jan 2016 and moving out soon + + + +Things really started a couple of years ago (Jan 2014), an older family friend of ours got in touch as he wanted to buy a house in our area. My brother put himself forward to buy the house for the gentleman for a small $$ fee. At the same time, he quit his job to setup a women’s fashion business. NB: He had no experience of women’s fashion and was(is) no way qualified/experienced/knowledgeable with anything to do with women’s fashion. Anyway, he’s always wanted to be a millionaire by the time he’s 30 kind of thing but never really dived into anything. We (me, mum and dad) always dissuaded him from his random ideas, so I didn’t push back on him this time round. Just felt he should go chase a dream for once. + + +So he quit the full-time job (with no cash flow or even registering the business), to work full time on the idea and running around to buy the house the guy wanted. He was also helping my mum and dad with their properties and transferring money back home for their new business. Fast forward a number of months from then (Oct 2014), he’s pretty much bought the house for the guy, but the fashion idea is nowhere close to taking off. Plus, the house-guy now wants the house to be legally transferred from my brother’s name to his. This is where things turned. + + + +Yes, he bought the house with the guy’s money but then he was giving excuses for why the legal transfer hadn’t happened yet. Mum and dad were also waiting for news on money my brother had in escrow for them. Things came to a head one drama-filled night when mum+dad cornered him and got him to reveal everything. Turns out he had been raising a $100,000 loan on the property the gentleman wanted him to buy for him. He was delaying transferring the property as he was waiting for the $100k loan to clear and had serious debt troubles. + + +Long story short, we managed to cancel the loan application and realised a large pot of money (~$100,000) for mom and dad had gone into his business idea that never got off the ground. A number of seriously poor business decisions but that’s not the story right now. We never really got the full details of the debt troubles, getting information from him was (is) like getting blood from a stone so we gave up after some time.For the sake of sanity and the family, we dug deep. My parents rescaled their business ideas and we tried moving forward. Our little sister [23f] is never really involved in these discussions. + + + +Last week (Aug 2015), shit almost hit the fan again. He was trying to raise a $80k loan on one of my parent’s properties at 21% APR. He only told me as he needed a reference of my wage slips (pretty sure he meant guarantor) and I dug into his loan application files, realised the absurdity of the loan deal and called mum & dad back into the mix. + + + +I’m torn. I thought he learnt from his first mistake but my mum and dad are slowly mentally coming off him. Particularly my mum, who mentally can’t cope with the anguish and what they are both feeling is the inevitable crap he may cause. I can’t ask for a better dad. He’s awesome, not academically gifted but wise and just so well intentioned etc etc. My dad has always been diplomatic in his language about all of us but increasingly he’s not been to glowing about my brother anymore. I’ve always had a rosy outlook on life and I’m slowly realising the realities of things. Still, our culture places some limits on what I feel I can do/say to him as a younger brother… still, at the same time I need to talk to him. Every time I try and do, he doesn’t really listen and it’s difficult advising/telling him what might be better to do. + +That’s it mostly. Scared about the wisdom of the reddit crowd but I throw myself at its feet for a few nuggets and suggestions if anyone feels like parting their experiences/thoughts this way. + + + + +&nbsp; + + +**TL/DR; Older brother blew $100,000 of parents money trying to set up business that never got off the ground. Got ‘caught’ trying to raise loan on a house that wasn’t really his (registered in his name but bought with someone else’s money). Was trying to raise loan on another house that is legally in his name, but again, not really his. No idea detail of debts he’s trying to clear as difficult to get him to sit down and talk** + +This is a challenge to everyone here. + +Lately I’ve seen a lot of new folks joining this lovely sub, and I’m seeing a lot of the same newbie things we all go through: tons of indicators, lots of moving averages, and esoteric strategies that are “guaranteed” to work based on some YouTube guru that you gotta pay $199 a month too🤦 + +In my short journey I’ve gone through that too, and paid for those courses, fancy Trading View indicators and chat rooms. I even bought the fully loaded version of Bookmap with all their stop and sweep indicator stuff. Yet, I ultimately found myself suffering from analysis paralysis. + +Then one day I just turned them all off and I found my win rate and expectancy increasing! I took it a step further and I don’t even have green or red candles now, just a light grey/blue against black; dimmer for down and lighter for up candles. That, paired with the high, low, mid and VPOC of the day give me enough of a sandbox to play in. The rest is price action. + +So my challenge to you: can you trade without indicators? Or at least significantly less? + +Good luck traders! + + +EDIT: + +Someone asked what is price action and how do you trade with it. Here’s my post reposted here for posterity: + +- + +This is actually a great question that sent me on a year long quest to answer. + +First, you can google candle stick pattern charts/ price action charts that show some typical ways that candles stack next to each other. A famous one is a double bottom/top. It basically looks like the candles make a W. Logically if you see the firs V of the W, then the next time price enters the bottom of the V you could enter that bottom tip of the V. + +But there’s so much more to it! + +For one, I use Tick charts. In essence, after 2,000 market orders of /ES, a new candle is drawn. This is regardless of _how_ many lots (contracts) those 2,000 orders each had. For example each person could have bought ten lots, then that candle would be drawn after 2,000 orders but the volume would report 20,000. + +Anyways, remember that W I talked about earlier? As price starts to form the second bit of the W, _the speed of the orders_ starts to be important too. You can literally see/feel the transactions come through as the W is formed. The more the orders fly through, the faster the W forms. The slower the orders fly through, the slower the W forms. That momentum is incredibly important because if it doesn’t slow down at that V tip, then you may hesitate to take the Long position there. You may get quickly stop picked (a common thing in /ES) that eats your position. The W looks more like a little v with a giant V next to it. + +Eventually that momentum peters out and you see big volume and momentum (speed at which the candles form) come in and push that final tip of the giant V into formation. + +Now do you enter as it begins the upswing? That’s up to your risk parameters and trade plan. + +Price action is quite literally that. How the price reacts and moves. A lot of people have their opinions on the kind of candle to use. For /ES futures I use a 2,000 tick chart. It works for me. I do observe on hourly and daily charts too to get overall market sense. But the tick chart is where all the magic happens for entering and observing for me. + +Can you do this on a time based or renko based chart? I genuinely have no idea. I haven’t used a non tick chart in almost a year. Perhaps someone with more experience can answer :) +First full time month day trading after part time for the last 6 months. Emotions got the best of me and ended up with basically a scratch month. I'm trading one $MES contract and living off savings atm. I'd love to scale up to a single $ES contract but I'm not comfortable scaling up until I can get my win rate to at least 70%, which it had been previous months. + +Granted - the previous 6 months had been in the simulator, and the difference was phenomenal with real money on the line. + +I was going with a .3R for the majority of the month up until the latter portion of July I scaled up to 1R and made the majority of my losers back. + +As you can see the average winner is substantially less than the average loser and my edge really wasn't working well for me this month. I'd even go as far as saying that a 51% win rate is not really an edge at all. + +If anything I hope this goes to show the importance of relentlessly journaling your progress so you can see in real-time whether or not your edge contains a statistical advantage. + +I hope in this next month I'll be able to continue with the 1R and keep honing my edge (Mack's PAT) + +If there are any other MACK's PA traders here I'd love to chat and see how your month went! + +https://preview.redd.it/gitjlz6a4ig91.png?width=1309&format=png&auto=webp&s=69f1d5bf5cbc597984867eb8af67ec80265145e8 + +https://preview.redd.it/xjf8cc784ig91.png?width=1457&format=png&auto=webp&s=7549d5a3ef1628d4386a01c17cb979a8b31b2ec7 +*I know no dates, it's just a projection.* + +*This post is a synthesis of posts and discoveries made by others.* + +*I am not a financial advisor, this is all just speculation not meant for advice in any way.* + +**TLDR: Seems like there are good times ahead!** + +**--- Tinfoil hat time! ---** + +So this past week, I think it is safe to say that we've seen **at least some credibility to the T+21/ T+35** **cycles** that were brought to attention by u/Criand in this [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngru15/the_flurry_of_rules_before_the_storm_dtc_icc_occ/). + +&#x200B; + +**We've seen some price increases on the following dates:** + +May 24th was T+35. + +May 25th was T+21. + +&#x200B; + +**The next cycle is due at:** + +June 24th for T+21. + +July 12th for T+35. + +*(An additional day was added in the calculation because of Memorial Day).* + +&#x200B; + +A fellow ape u[/eoneqeip](https://www.reddit.com/user/eoneqeip/) discovered that Gamestop had a "Mergurine" Vocaloid product which has an expected date of 06/22/21. (Check post: [I tried to search for "merger" info on gamestop.com and my tits tingled!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/noasj7/i_tried_to_search_for_merger_info_on_gamestopcom/)) + +&#x200B; + +[I sure know that this whole bubble is going to POP! someday real soon.](https://preview.redd.it/rz46qj82fa271.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=314dcd5531c1fe9d7a197bf0977753c878deb9c4) + +It was further noted that the product "Mergurine" is actually should be spelled "Megurine". + +I'm also confident that RC and his team is more than capable to not have this as a simple typo mistake and that it really has something to do with the recent **merger theory from his recent tombstone** [**post**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nnmb4c/tombstone_tweet_confirms_reverse_merger_reposted/)**.** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/hynpnmfkka271.png?width=1321&format=png&auto=webp&s=2dabc7c7a564bc799bd5b339900f3d89fdfaf783 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ybs0utu4ia271.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd0b84a8cb1f21edd7363aca95ebb74b2417f59b + +July 14th also is the day where Gamestop Crypto would be developed and released and just so happens to be that this date is a National day in France. + +We love symbols and I'm sure the delivery date on a Wednesday was chosen for a specific reason. + +**07/14/21 = 7/(7+7) / (7+7+7)** ***\*Tinfoiling intensifies\**** + +&#x200B; + +*In conclusion...* + +&#x200B; + +[Possible that there won't be many of dips in the future. 'Cause the dip machine broke 😎.](https://preview.redd.it/69kcy8dtka271.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=3303198588d5a71f0c24d58cbe60cf3421ea70c9) + +**My speculation is:** + +1. **Mergers** will be completed by the end of **06/22.** +2. **CUSIP #** will be changed for each of the shares recalled after the merger. +3. **T+21** date inevitably forcing the sHF's to lose control of the increasing price in **06/24.** +4. **T+35** date providing additional pressure on sHF's in **07/12.** +5. **If Crypto dividends** are going to be the final catalyst, the MOASS will start at the least by mid-July after Gamestop releases NFTs **07/14.** + +**Things are looking pretty good!** + +&#x200B; + +*Two additional things to note:* + +**-Any of the dates above might be used by MSM to falsely label as the "Short Squeeze".** + +**-While we are still waiting for the two final crucial rules (DTC-005, NSCC-002), I think RC can just press the** ***LAUNCH*** **button if the merger is complete and crypto dividends are possible?** + +&#x200B; + +**I am in deep love with this STOCK.** + +We are so very close to the end and I can't wait to see RC's 6-D Chess strategy when this is all over. + +We know what to do. 💎🙌 + +🌝🚀🚀🚀**🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀👀** +This has shown up in a few comments and posts but I want to call more attention so no one gets Melvin’d: + +YOU CAN ONLY BUY 5 SHARES OF GME + +That means: +- if you have more than 5 shares you can’t buy GME +- if you try to time a dip to sell and buy back up, you will only be able to buy up to 5 shares + +The blatant omission of these small details is the most fucked thing I’ve seen since yesterday... they are literally preying on the misinformed (by not informing them). + +Edit: [Here’s some proof ](https://imgur.com/gallery/TJghr70) + +Edit 2: [Here’s a list of all tickers (including BB and AMC) that RH is manipulating](https://twitter.com/wsbmod/status/1355141894930624514?s=20) + +This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. I just really like 🍌 +Almost thirteen years after the official launch of the Bitcoin network, the digital currency invented by Satoshi Nakamoto remains the undisputed leader of the crypto world. The compass that gives direction to the market as a whole. + +Since you've entered the crypto world, you've probably become interested in other cryptocurrency projects. + +With each project proclaiming loudly that it will revolutionize the industry by eventually surpassing Bitcoin (or Ethereum), you must have had high hopes for some cryptocurrencies. Those hopes may still be there, or they may have faded away, caught up with reality. + +My question is more about those cryptocurrency projects that you believed in so much, and that have totally disappointed you in the end. Do not hesitate to tell me what justifies this disappointment. These can of course not be final, you never know. +[GameStop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) || Shop [Internationally](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vyyzmx/gamestop_retail_international_nft_game_informer/) || [NFT Marketplace](https://nft.gamestop.com) + +GameStop [Investor Relations](https://news.gamestop.com/) + +# 🙋 ​[What's GME & should I consider investing?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qig65g/welcome_rall_looking_to_catch_up_on_the_gme_saga/) + +# 📚 Library of Due Diligence [GME.fyi](https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg) + +>A collection of over 200 of the most important, groundbreaking **D**ue **D**iligence. If you're looking to familiarize yourself with the GME bull thesis or the underhanded tactics of the short sellers involved in this trade– then this is for you + +# 🟣 [Computershare Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/x3byy4/drscomputershare_megathread_092022/) + +>Wondering what DRS is? Want to know how and why people are Direct Registering their shares? Here you'll find our guide and additional resources, as well as a welcoming community answering questions in the comments! + +🏴‍☠️ [NFT Marketplace & Wallet Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vluysg/gamestop_nft_marketplace_wallet_megathread/) + +>Why is GameStop getting into NFTs? *WTF* even is an NFT? How do I set up a GameStop Wallet? How do I get a cool/custom wallet address? All these questions and more are answered here! + +**Read** [**the Rules & Wiki**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index) **||** [**MOASS FAQ**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq) **|| Join our** [**Discord**](https://discord.gg/Superstonk) + +How to [feed DRSBOT](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEOrphans/comments/qlvour/welcome_to_gmeorphans_read_this_post/). Low karma? Post your DRS on r/GMEOrphans + +How to [Filter by Flair & Search](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v0oxp2/how_to_filter_by_flair_search_for_posts_on/) on Superstonk + +Tag u/Superstonk-Flairy for user flairs, find [custom emoji options here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v89p0h/new_superstonk_user_flair_emojis_how_to_edit_your/) +I am interested in what everyone’s experiences are in terms of fees paid to financial advisors at various asset levels, such as 1M, 5M and 10+M. + +Realize this could veer off into a debate of advisor vs no advisor or fee only vs percent of assets but more interested in actual data on fees. + +Thanks +My husband, daughter, and I are moving to the USA. We always thought that life would be better off there. Where we currently live, he gets paid 35k (no taxes) and we've been living comfortably and saving money. Both him and my daughter have extensive medical needs and have been receiving care here too. Her care has been mostly free, and his has been affordable. I stay at home with my daughter, and due to her medical needs and covid, working is not really an option. + +He's a teacher and has now been offered a teaching job for 44k in Maryland. We were just thinking that seems fine, we should be able to make it for a year or so, maybe even more. Then his work send the details of their "benefits". To cover all of us through his work, it'd cost 13k. Now we're looking at covering him through his work (2k), my daughter through the Maryland Children's Health Program, and I still have to figure out my own insurance (I can't imagine it'll be less than 5k annually). We're going to be poor. After it's all said and done, his take home pay would probably be somewhere around 2k a month. We wouldn't be able to afford a place to stay and food with that money. We have a sizeable chunk we'll be putting as a down payment, but we wouldn't qualify for the homes that we want. + +I'm really at a loss. I knew moving would be difficult, but I didn't expect our standard of living to drastically decrease. I don't know where to go from here, or how we would be able to make it in the USA as a single income family. +Overstock experiencing a sell-off after a series of strange comments made by the CEO. + +[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/overstock-tumbles-36-since-byrne-s-men-in-black-declarations](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/overstock-tumbles-36-since-byrne-s-men-in-black-declarations) +Pat yourself on the back for not being an emotional mess like many complainers, whiners, and doomsday preachers were the last 2 days and pat yourself for not investing more than you can lose. Those who cannot handle having more than 50% of your portfolio gone in a day should not be investing or trading crypto because they either have too much skin in the game or are just way too emotional to be making good financial decisions. +EDIT: Yes I know you can't time the market... + +EDIT EDIT: Ouch some of you just want to leave it at the easy answer - I Appreciate those taking the time to dive into pros and cons of things and how to make a decision. + +Sorry If my question and edit seemed counterproductive, [then again...](https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Cunningham%27s_Law) +From: Coinbase <news@coinbase.com> +Date: April 8, 2015 at 2:32:26 PM EDT +To: @gmail.com +Subject: , We've got a message for You +In This Issue: + Get 150% profit with Coinbase Invest Fund + +Dear , + +We're happy to announce a new product - Coinbase Invest Fund, reliable platform for +small and medium scale investments. Fund assets are diversified among emerging Forex +positions at Coinbase Exchange. Deposits are risk-free insured by institutions such as the New +York Stock Exchange. + +Want to become a professional investor? +Our first short-term investment program starts today - GET 150% FOR A 10-DAY DEPOSIT. + +Investment offer is active from 20th of April 12:00 AM Pacific until 30th of April. +Coinbase offers you a fixed return with a 50% growth for a 10 day period. +You can deposit today from $100. Maximum deposit amount per one person +or legal entity is 60 Bitcoins. That's an astonishing opportunity to earn up to $8,500 per 10 days! + +Investors who want to apply, please make a deposit to + + 1LLkNuQQ2GkS5DmQzsTxCmErUH8ew6dnDi or click the link below + https://blockchain.info/qr?data=1LLkNuQQ2GkS5DmQzsTxCmErUH8ew6dnDi&size=400 + +Once a payment is made you will get an e-mail about successful participation. +Please note: Initial deposit amounts exceeding +30 Bitcoins will qualify your membership for a 2nd level upgrade. + +We will return your initial deposit with dividends on 1st of May, 2015 12:00 AM Pacific Time. +(for example: investing 10 Bitcoins today will return 15 Bitcoins in a 10 day period) +Profits are withdrawn without any delay and Coinbase waives all fees for 1st level investments. + +Hurry up! This is a limited, one-time opportunity. + +Kind regards, +The Coinbase Invest Fund Team + +Do not reply to this e-mail + +This article originally appeared on [medium](https://hackernoon.com/24-lessons-i-learned-from-interviewing-over-45-cryptocurrency-projects-in-two-months-680dfa213aa6?source=linkShare-1e8983a4c145-1525572145) + +&nbsp; + +Like most of the people who got into the blockchain space in 2017 we all had to wade through a sea of BS, incomplete information, and a whole lot of market fluctuations. + +&nbsp; + +_It was a great ol’ time._ + +&nbsp; + +A lot of us made money and a lot of us lost money. + +&nbsp; + +About three months ago, we decided we had enough of the rehashed white papers and 3 minute videos about the next 100X Lambo Moon-coin of the month by Crypto (_insert generic name_). + +&nbsp; + +We decided we wanted to bridge the gap between the real projects/ideas/technologists and the people investing in them. + +&nbsp; + +_So we started to interview a few projects._ + +&nbsp; + +3 months later and we’ve interviewed over 45 projects, and spoken to more than 50+. I can’t think of a more hands-on journey into crypto than this. + +&nbsp; + +There were just so many insights that either occurred before or after the interviews that I knew people would appreciate. + +&nbsp; + +So I compiled a list of 25 nuggets of wisdom shared by some of the 45 founders we spoke to. + +&nbsp; + +I’m not saying any of them are true, and I'm not promoting any of their projects. This is just me sharing insights from CEO/founders that you might otherwise not have access too. + +&nbsp; + +_Shameless plug time — Subscribe to our [Youtube channel](https://youtube.com/coincrunch) for awesome videos and new project interviews. Also, please check out our website [coincrunch.io](https://coincrunch.io/) and join our community._ + +&nbsp; + +_So let’s get into it._ + +&nbsp; + +I’ve broken this down by numbers, with the italics being my own thoughts on.. well, their thoughts. + +&nbsp; + +Enjoy, and feel free to let me know what you think. + +&nbsp; + +**1.** **Don’t think that regular VC companies know what they’re doing when it comes to investing in early stage tech companies. There are no rules or definite markers of success. The vast majority of VC funding falls flat. Same with crypto.** + +&nbsp; + +I think most ICO and early stage blockchain investors don’t know what they are doing and that’s why they look to put their $ into projects with popular sentiment, as it’s the only reliable heuristic out there. + +&nbsp; + +It’s important to remember that a lot of VC funds also can’t accurately measure whether a project will be successful or not. + +&nbsp; + +It’s hard work and the unpredictable nature of blockchain tech and ideas makes it even harder. + +&nbsp; + +**2.** **The biggest challenge for high quality projects is attracting developers and real users. Money isn’t a big issue with high quality projects. Expect way, way fewer crowdsales.** + +&nbsp; + +I think the era of regular people getting into amazing ICOs is over. *Sorry to say.* + +&nbsp; + +The value will shift more to VC funds for one simple reason — a lot of big VC funds offer great value adds. Whether it’s publicity or their network of support, it’s a no brainer for most projects. + +&nbsp; + +Not to mention most VC funds are usually 100% legally compliant. No issues with KYC. + +&nbsp; + +**3.** **Airdrops will become the new crowdsale.** + +&nbsp; + +We’ve spoken to a lot of projects over the last few months who have decided to opt for an airdrop model to avoid legal scrutiny. + +&nbsp; + +It also saves them from dealing with the hordes of humans asking “WHEN BINNANCE” “WHEN TOKENS” in telegram. + +&nbsp; + +Crowd-sales are absolute chaos and a target for hackers. Expect all good projects to be snatched up by VC funding right away. + +&nbsp; + +**4.** **SEC is overall friendly to crypto and wants the community to self regulate first.** + +&nbsp; + +We won’t be naming names, but we’ve spoken to a few people that regularly speak with either the SEC, used to work there, or are taking part in a consolidated effort to educate government officials about crypto. + +&nbsp; + +They realize there is a big shift coming and they need to be accommodating towards it. My personal take is that I’m not worried about regulation and actually welcome it. + +&nbsp; + +A large percentage of retail investors either can’t read English well enough to find scams or are too uneducated/lazy. + +&nbsp; + +**5.** **Liquidity is one of the biggest issues for crypto and why it’s so volatile. Lack of liquidity pools are the biggest problem here.** + +&nbsp; + +I’m pretty sure this one is pretty easy to understand. + +&nbsp; + +Lack of liquidity means easily manipulated order books and more volatility. Liquidity is pooled in individual order books and not shared across exchanges. + +&nbsp; + +DEXs will hopefully change all of that. + +&nbsp; + +**6.** **The majority of smart contracts aren’t secure and there is eventually going to be some standard for validating security.** + +&nbsp; + +Projects like Quantstamp and Certik are looking to audit smart contracts for the massive amount of security vulnerabilities. Just take a look at this report indicating that [34,200 vulnerabilities in smart contracts.](https://eprint.iacr.org/2016/633.pdf) + +&nbsp; + +_Yikes!_ + +&nbsp; + +This leads to the conclusion that eventually there will be a globally recognized standard for verifying smart contracts. Sort of like a seal of approval or standard from some highly respected group. + +&nbsp; + +*Whichever project it is will be worth a lot.* + +&nbsp; + +**7.** **Culture helps people adopt to crypto faster. Some cultures are better suited for crypto adoption.** + +&nbsp; + +Countries like Korea and Japan are big on video games. [More than half of their population](http://www.techforkorea.com/2017/05/30/curious-about-the-south-korea-gaming-culture-a-closer-look-at-the-popularity-of-esports-reveals-some-trends-2/) plays video games, and digital currencies have long been a staple of these games. + +&nbsp; + +So the adoption curve for creating a *real* currency isn’t that steep. + +&nbsp; + +On the other hand, we have cultures that haven’t grown up so technologically integrated.. which leaves crypto adoption for only cyberpunks and speculators. + +&nbsp; + +**8.** **2017 was like the Primordial Ooze of Crypto.** + +&nbsp; + +We had a lot of great projects come out and we also had a LOT of garbage. If I was to throw out some non-verified estimate, I would say 98.5% garbage and 1.5% quality. + +&nbsp; + +*But that’s not the point.* + +&nbsp; + +The point is that we needed that evolutionary process to get to where we are now and will hopefully go in the future. + +&nbsp; + +Think of it like evolution. Legitimate projects will adapt, grow, and flourish, leaving the lazy ones to die. + +&nbsp; + +**9.** **Incentives are the most important thing tokens need to be designed around.** + +&nbsp; + +Charlie Munger, Buffet’s right hand man, has a famous quote which is very appropriate to crypto - “*Show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcome*”. + +&nbsp; + +A lot of projects forget this. Some of them don’t even seem to have spent more than twenty minutes designing their token functionality. + +&nbsp; + +Designing for incentives first and foremost ensures a robust and resilient ecosystem that will live long into the future. + +&nbsp; + +It’s also the basis for any network effect. + +&nbsp; + +**10.** **Cryptomarkets will eventually be worth trillions.** + +&nbsp; + +*Just saying*... + +&nbsp; + +**11.** **Icon is an insane project.** + +&nbsp; + +*The shill of the week. Here it is.* + +&nbsp; + +Combine high quality tech + a new incubator with 300 projects + thought leadership + a total blockchain ecosystem + tons of Koreans + good marketing = ICON is awesome. + +&nbsp; + +**12.** **Most serious developers don’t even think about price, they just focus on the tech.** + +This is something we saw over and over again. + +&nbsp; + +From conferences to interviews, high quality projects don’t even worry about their investments or price. They just keep developing and working on what they are doing. + +&nbsp; + +I think the value in this is it exemplifies an attitude that real HODlers need to have — absolute confidence in the tech and direction of the project. + +&nbsp; + +Price is only a temporary bump on the roadmap to awesomeness. + +&nbsp; + +**13.** **Blockchain is a unique space because you need to understand a little of everything.** + +&nbsp; + +This is one of the only spaces where a long-term investor needs to understand a plethora of topics. + +&nbsp; + +Governance, token economics, functionality, scalability and how to build community. If anything, investing in crypto is a LOT harder than traditional blue-chip investing. + +&nbsp; + +You need to understand different dynamics and think like a VC. There are no clear cut agreed upon metrics like P/E to help you decide. + +&nbsp; + +**14.** **The OTC BTC volume is staggering.** + +&nbsp; + +The majority of BTC volume does not exist on exchanges. + +&nbsp; + +It’s all taking place over-the-counter. Sellers and buyers working directly to buy/sell massive amounts of it. + +&nbsp; + +*Who is buying it?* + +&nbsp; + +Financial players working under different aliases or companies. + +&nbsp; + +People are accumulating BTC and they are buying… *a lot of it*… + +&nbsp; + +**15.** **Crypto needs a robust and healthy derivatives market** + +&nbsp; + +Short sellers and other derivative based financial instruments keep regular markets healthy and stable and reduce volatility. + +&nbsp; + +I didn’t understand this concept that well, but had one of the leading decentralized exchange founders break it down for me like I was 5 years old. + +&nbsp; + +While short-sellers often get a lot of hate, they are an essential component of any healthy market. + +&nbsp; + +Look to projects like [Market Protocol](https://marketprotocol.io/) and [0x](https://0xproject.com/) to bring derivatives trading to the blockchain. + +&nbsp; + +**16.** **Big institutional money hasn’t entered the space yet, despite what Novogratz said.** + +&nbsp; + +*The huge, *huge* money hasn’t come in.* + +&nbsp; + +I’m talking about pension funds, teachers retirement funds, and huge index funds. They haven’t entered crypto and won’t be for a while. + +&nbsp; + +The reason is two fold - + +&nbsp; + +First, lack of custodial services to help them facilitate/purchase/store crypto. + +&nbsp; + +Second, it’s way too volatile for them. + +&nbsp; + +This leaves most of the “*big money*” that has entered crypto to be tech-focused VC funds and some family offices. + +&nbsp; + +**17.** **Key Management Services (KMS) will be huge in the future.** + +&nbsp; + +Most people don’t want to hold their public keys, and even when they try to do it some experts still mess it up royally (*won’t say who*). + +&nbsp; + +The average person doesn’t want to be their own bank and I can’t blame them. + +&nbsp; + +Storing your own private key is scary as hell.* + +&nbsp; + +It’s important to remember that the majority of people aren’t even responsible enough to save money, let alone carry around a secret series of numbers that allows anyone to steal your money in 1–2 seconds. + +&nbsp; + +KMS will be a huge, huge, *HUGE* market in the future. Some KMS solutions may even become like crypto-banks. + +&nbsp; + +**18.** **Blockchains aren't private, companies can’t store data on public ledgers without compromising data privacy rules. Privacy layer is huge.** + +&nbsp; + +If you are serious about understanding blockchain tech and investing in new projects, you definitely need to [read up on data security laws](https://www.eugdpr.org/). + +&nbsp; + +I’ve seen so many Dapps that offer to liberate people and free data or create open marketplaces. + +&nbsp; + +……*Cool* + +&nbsp; + +But your white paper doesn’t mention anything about how to store this extremely private, sensitive data that is governed by a highly developed set of international data security laws.. does it? + +&nbsp; + +Data privacy on the blockchain as integrations with the underlying chain, or as layers built on top, are going to create a HUGE market and are essential to scale consumer-grade apps. + +&nbsp; + +Look to [Keep Network](https://keep.network/) and [Enigma](https://enigma.co/) for these solutions. + +&nbsp; + +**19.** **The main killer app of crypto is faster technological innovation and funding.** + +&nbsp; + +For the first time in history, regular people can become venture capitalists. We have liberated an industry that once belonged to the uber-rich to regular people like ourselves. + +&nbsp; + +Yes, this has led to a lot of fraudsters and charlatans, but it has also led to an accelerated rate of technological innovation. + +&nbsp; + +**20.** **Data is the new oil.** + +&nbsp; + +More and more people will start to realize how powerful data is and that it needs to be protected. + +&nbsp; + +Data is the new oil, and companies like FB and Amazon are the new petro-dollar-oil overlords of the world. + +&nbsp; + +Luckily blockchain offers a reliable method to break these data silos and create a world where data can be liberated by sharing data, all while still maintaining an immutable ledger or its original ownership, therefore allowing creators to be rewarded. + +&nbsp; + +[Ocean Protocol](https://oceanprotocol.com/) is by far the top project leading the way on this. + +&nbsp; + +**21.** **Discount token models are badass** + +&nbsp; + +If you don’t know what a discount token is, it’s pretty easy to explain. + +&nbsp; + +*Think of a reward point or Airmiles.* + +&nbsp; + +Basically, you get a few advantages with discount tokens. First, they aren’t securities. Second, they encourage network use and participation. Third, people tend to hold them for future use which adds an element of price stability. Forth, it still allows for other currencies or fiat to be used to access a system. + +&nbsp; + +I think discount tokens are going to become more popular in 2018–2019. [Here is a video all about them](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwNoGhK7JbM). + +&nbsp; + +**22.** **Everyone likes Ethereum** + +&nbsp; + +Every project and developer we spoke to loves ETH, the community, and what they are trying to build. + +&nbsp; + +A lot of elements of the Ethereum community embody the same values and ideas that brought people into the blockchain world in the first place. + +&nbsp; + +I personally look to ETH to have a massively larger market cap in the next 2–3 years. + +&nbsp; + +**23.** **The FAT Protocol Thesis is still very much applicable.** + +&nbsp; + +If you don’t know what it is — [watch my video](https://youtu.be/5OSCaI4VQQM). + +&nbsp; + +FAT Protocols are the idea that value will be captured at the protocol layer and not the application layer. + +&nbsp; + +I generally agree with this statement, and most of the founders we spoke to still believe we are in the early days of this new blockchain world and protocol projects offer the best long term investment value. + +&nbsp; + +*Pro tip — look for projects that incubators setup to launch new projects.* + +&nbsp; + +**24.** **Everyone is just trying to figure this whole thing out.** + +&nbsp; + +*Phewwwww* + +&nbsp; + +That’s a relief. Most of my life as an entrepreneur has involved this nagging feeling that I don’t really know what the hell I’m doing. + +&nbsp; + +It seems that the blockchain world is no different. A lot of projects are figuring things out as they go along, networking and exploring new ideas. + +&nbsp; + +That is the beauty of our current stage of development. It’s a thriving and exciting time to learn new knowledge and challenge what you think you know. + +&nbsp; + +That’s it. + +&nbsp; + +Hope it’s been insightful. + +&nbsp; + +I’d like to end with one last note — talking to projects on all parts of the planet working on the same problems with the same enthusiasm has made me more bullish than ever before on the blockchain space. + +&nbsp; + +We’re in for a wild and exciting ride guys. + +&nbsp; + +Let’s strap in and enjoy it. +Conventional wisdom is often to save your bonus, and live off your salary. This makes sense when your bonus is <30% TC. For some of the more Fat career paths, this is no longer the case. My annual bonus is several times my annual salary, and is continuing to grow (no foreseeable salary growth). I effectively live off my salary but expenditures are increasing and I'm trying to figure out the best way to manage these cash flows. + +1. Deposit a chunk of bonus in cash every year and use that for expenditures. +2. Invest bonus, and use Margin / PAL to cover living expenses (balance would be paid off in full and then some with every new bonus) +3. Invest bonus and then every month sell some portion of assets at the start of every month to cover expenses. + +I have mostly been in the camp of 1/3, but after reading more of this sub, have been thinking that potentially 2 might be a better option, assuming that annual expenditures are low relative to Taxable NW, so that you're not picking up excessive leverage (<10%)). + + +FatFIRE relevant because non Fat paths generally don't receive vast majority of comp once a year. Managing cash flows around this also bears similarities to managing expenditures post FIRE. Additionally, non FatFIRE paths don't have nearly the same multiple of spending in taxable accounts, which would preclude 2. (Regular FIRE is most in tax deferred, regular FAT doesn't have the same savings to spend ratio and would become excessively leveraged) +Hi All, + + Im curious about what Fatfire thinks about the value of board seats/board presence relative to your career progression. Specifically, I know some successful folks who have sat on boards of small companies as a side hustle and parlayed that into senior-level full-time roles (VP+). Alternatively, I know a similar number (or higher number) of people who have 3 or 4 board seats but are largely stagnant in their careers. + + +My end-all goal is to retire with a presence on several boards (passive income + gives me something to do) but as a 30 something year old, it seems silly/unrealistic to look for this now. + + +What do you think - realistic? valuable? If so, what would you suggest for securing such a position? Do they require investments into these companies? If so, at what level? + +Thanks as always +Yes, this is exactly what it sounds like. COPE is built on Solana Ecosystem I visited their site so you don't have to + +>Earn COPE through staking across pools in the Solana ecosystem such as on Raydium and Orca and upcoming COPE Trading Pools. Stake in Sollet/Phantom (on-chain) wallet to earn more COPE and become claimants in spacedrops. + +[Here's the chart after their devs team sold 10&#37; of the supply on market.](https://preview.redd.it/ywwponjofh191.jpg?width=1934&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6535bcb7bd2de02291cd40b268748c723c37c454) + +Then he came to Discord apologizing for the dip. + +This is was his response: + +[Sorry guys he needed the money.](https://preview.redd.it/13f5es2qfh191.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=55266c34566a377f080784fc3e9456553a05ed65) + +Don't worry this doesn't stop here it gets shittier + +[Thank you for funding Devs pocket, Cope Holders.](https://preview.redd.it/qx7q1slrfh191.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5fbf179c0d9a23b9d41a6e2d0c39d780e6ec3bce) + +[His Explanation \\"got to keep dev team going through this hard time\\"](https://preview.redd.it/zcst93rsfh191.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ba715e6eb582444a6e50d856c189bad7cc06997b) + +A Twitter user posted this: + +>Daily reminder that Cyrii owned the majority of the [$cope](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24cope&src=cashtag_click) supply in his wallet and it never bothered anyone He also claimed he'd burn a ton and never did, instead he sold it now + +Tweet: [https://twitter.com/Mister\_Ch0c/status/1529106514279112704](https://twitter.com/Mister_Ch0c/status/1529106514279112704) +My husband and I want to retire early, in our early 50s or about 20 years. We would most likely reach FI before that, but we will keep working while the kids are still living at home with us. Reading FI it seems like everyone is living the bare bones, undergrad life style to reach their FI goals. We are not interested saving every penny we possibly could so we reach that day a little bit sooner. Mostly because the kids will not grow any faster than 1 year per year. We want to be working while they're in school and neither of us have the option to work part time in our chosen career fields. At this time, we are saving ~$60K a year towards retirement and probably will spend that a year (or a little bit more) at retirement. We make roughly $180k base a year and roughly $15k in bonus, after taxes it's about $130k and $70,000 after saving for retirement. I don't keep the most detailed budget, but ~$20-30k of that is still in a savings account of some sort. They are just alotted for vacations, home improvements, and other large item purchase we'll have in the next year or so. We could cut our spending obviously, but we don't want to live that type of life style so we can spend like crazy once we retire or retire that much earlier. Does anyone else do something similar? +# UPDATE: It seems the 1M follower account is down, we did it reddit! + +There's an account on IG called "buterin\_official" with **1 MILLION FOLLOWERS** that's promoting a scam THROUGH INSTAGRAM PAID ADS + +I repeat: + +# 1 MILLION FOLLOWERS + +&#x200B; + +[I can't believe this passed Instagram's ads process](https://preview.redd.it/1kfm61j4kgj81.png?width=335&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fe8ac2961cec4108d3a700489368dbff11d8e3f) + +Vitalik **has no IG** and he didn't mention anything about this on his official page nor his verified twitter account. + +The image is fake and the "send 1 ETH get back 2" is a scam older than the universe, don't fall for that crap please + +Here is the real image: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jqobgalzjgj81.jpg?width=1136&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b85bfc13b9214dfcfd8124ad2792345745a78b44 + +Spread the word, let's end this kind of bullshit that only delegitimizes crypto + +Report the accounts [https://www.instagram.com/buterin\_official/](https://www.instagram.com/buterin_official/?hl=es) and [https://www.instagram.com/vitalikether/](https://www.instagram.com/vitalikether/) + +Tag u/vbuterin, he might see this! + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: Thanks to the mods for reflairing, couldn't find the appropiate one + +&#x200B; +Hey ya'll! + +I've been heavily considering refinancing my 2013 Mazda 3 that I got 2.5 years ago. Right now, I'm currently paying $244 a month with 18.23% APR (I was 21 with newish credit) and it's definitely manageable but I feel like I can lower my monthly payments and a lower rate. + +My main question is if it's even worth it to go through the hassle of refinancing a car that old with only $5600 left on the loan? + +Would it be easier to shop for rates online with websites like lightstream and such? Or go to a bank in person and shop around like that? My credit is 702 and I've never missed any payment. Would I even get lower rates? I'm still new to this but I'm trying to research everything but would like some outside perspective on my situation. Thank you! + +Update: thank you all so much for the replies! Truly didn’t expect to get this much input but it’s greatly appreciated! I’m definitely going to look into getting a refinance through a credit union and just generally shop around, since I could be saving a lot of money on interest. +A few days ago somebody posted on here about a company called AURVISTA GOLD CORP. I was kind of intrigued because the price was cheap, about 20 cents a share, and it's a gold exploration company. Which means if they strike, well they are literally sitting on a gold mine. I have kind of, sort of mulled it over in my head ever since. So about 10 minutes ago I decided to really look into it, since I do own some mining and think PM mining may do well in the future. + +Almost immediately [I came across this interesting article](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/parta-dialogue-adds-aurvista-gold-to-its-list-of-canadian-resource-and-energy-sector-clients-2012-11-28-121733923). It basicaly says that the company in question has hired another company to pump it's stock price on social media, such as reddit. + +It illustrates a point that I have long lived by, and I think everybody should keep in mind. Never believe anything just because somebody tells you to believe them. Always be skeptical. Especially of what you see on the internet. +I know saving is hard. It seems like the Monday after payday all our hard earned checks are gone. If you happen to work for a company with 401(k) and they match a percentage please take advantage. Even if it's only 3%. The earlier we start the better and the next best time to start after yesterday is today. Some people may believe that a Roth IRA is a better option however this is just an easy way to get paid to save if it's available to you without much research/time/energy on your part +OK, so I just thought we could resume doing these threads again in here every weekend. This thread idea was originally started by /u/sisumoney, so full credit goes out to him. :) + +So, I'm not sure how many of us use the weekends to thoroughly go over stocks. But, I think the weekends are an excellent time to be an investor. You get waaaaay more time to go over companies without the market being open. Back when I was actively trading I used the weekends to really delve deep down into companies that were on my radar for the week ahead, going over the charts, financials, you name it. + +It was really nice having the weekends to do all of this without the thought in the back of my mind that the market was open and I felt like I was missing out on something. I could really take all the time that I needed and not feel rushed. + +I don't do much of this nowadays anymore as I'm not actively trading. But, for those of you who are either starting out or have been in the game for a long time should definitely be using the weekends to do the extra DD if you will. + +Anyway, I just thought it'd be super cool to see what people are looking at on the weekends for the trading week ahead. + +To make this thread meaningful, I think it would be helpful for people to post what they eyeing this weekend, and also include a brief rationale as to why a particular stock has got your interest (is there an upcoming ER due out?, chart setup you like?, etc.) so just kind of exchanging thoughts and ideas with the r/StockMarket community. + +It does not matter if it's T/A or F/A, everything is welcome here! + +So, w/o getting into further ado let's hear what stocks r/StockMarket has got on their radar this weekend for the upcoming trading week ahead. + +Looking forward to hearing some good input in here this weekend. +As someone that's been involved in bitcoin for almost a decade now, watching the WSB drama last week rekindled an old understanding in me. + +I get the intention of WSB - the financial system is completely and utterly broken, and fighting it is *good*. Hedge funds are tiny little fish though, and the Bitcoin community had spent years fighting a war so much bigger than that. The war against Central Banking. + +The scale is completely and utterly different. **All** the Hedge Funds in *the entire world* managed just over 3 trillion dollar's worth of assets in 2019 - accumulated over many decades, in many countries.[1] + +The United State's Federal Reserve *created* more than 3.4 trillion USD in 2020 alone. + +Yes, one central bank printed in one year more money than is managed by all the hedge funds in the whole world. + +*This* is what Bitcoin is up against. This is the scale of this war. **And this is the war we're here to win.** + + + +Edit: I'm happy this resonates with other people. <3 + +You can follow me on twitter for more weaponised autism: https://twitter.com/TomNormanCohen + + + +[1]https://www.statista.com/statistics/271771/assets-of-the-hedge-funds-worldwide/ + +[2]https://www.cityam.com/almost-a-fifth-of-all-us-dollars-were-created-this-year/ +My husband has been put in the fortunate position of being pretty much financially independent by his parents. He dreads being asked "what do you do". I'm sure some of that is his guilt, but it's true that people can be funny if they feel 'oh it's alright for you...' and I don't really blame them, but it is awkward when you don't want everyone knowing your business. Do you make something up or say something vague about being in property?? We're British by the way, might make a bit of cultural difference! +Hi AusFinance, curious to hear thoughts on this home buying strategy. + +For high income first home buyers, if you get a $1m house you get almost no grants. + +Assuming you have a large deposit e.g. $200k, $225k, $250k something like that. + +Is there a case to be made to first buy a $550k apartment ($112k deposit) and use up the grants and just live there for 1.5 or 2 years while saving up the $112k to replenish your deposit, and then buy your $1m to $1.5m house? + +That way you’d have an investment property and a home, and by buying the apartment first you have access to an offset and can save easier on the much lower mortgage, vs. doing it the other way round. + +Concerns I had when told this strategy buy my coworker contemplating it were: +1. What if prices rise during the 1.5 years and you miss out on that house (but also it does have downsized protection if they fall). +2. Potentially some issues around the size of debt, I’m not in finance but if you had a high income, 10% deposit and had paid off 22% of the apartment you were to rent out how much would that weigh on refinancing. + + +Hope this hypothetical is okay to post - have never read it anywhere so wanted to share. + +And if it helps, let’s say the household income in this scenario is in the range of $100k to $180k after tax. (But if it worked for lower incomes or needed higher that would be interesting to know) +http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/24/pf/emergency-savings/index.html + +I would imagine most people in this subreddit do not fit this, but there are a still a ton of people in the U.S. (and probably the world) who do not save enough. +Bitcoin has closed NINE (9) green days in a row. + +This has only happened three times in the history of Bitcoin. + +Every time, it was followed by a face-melting bullrun. + +- 2012-09-19, Days green: 11 + - Price at time: 12.32 + - Cycle peak: 259.34 (+2005.03%) + +- 2013-10-15, Days green: 10 + - Price at time: 142.76 + - Cycle peak: 1163.0 (+714.65%) + +- 2015-10-30, Days green: 9 + - Price at time: 328.65 + - Cycle peak: 19666.00 (+5883.87%) + +- 2021-07-29, Days green: 9 + - Price at time: 40018.00 + - Cycle peak: Three words,bullish af. + +Edit: *This is never Financial Advice.Just your daily dose of hopium.* +NBC just did one of the best stories on Bitcoin I have ever seen mainstream media do. Excellent explanation. Mentioned the drop but also pointed out its sustained growth dispute that drop. + +The only criticism I have came from two bad quotes from a guy with the Digital Currency Group. + +He said "bitcoin is an investment" . That's wrong. It's a protocol. This is what it really is and it's a very important thing to realize as the IRS and your accountant attempts to figure out how it should be taxed. + +He also said " you will either make a lot of money or you will lose all your money" . That's completely wrong. Bitcoin will never be worth nothing, anymore than an ounce of gold will ever be worth nothing. People need to stop saying that. It's false and people in the industry especially should know better. + +Some redditors provided the show name and link: Sunday Today with Willie Geist https://www.today.com/video/what-is-cryptocurrency-and-should-you-risk-your-money-with-it-1176396355663 +Looking for a little advice, I get paid Sunday at midnight but my rent is due today, I’m down by about £40 and extremely stressed, I’ve never been late on rent before and I have no one that can lend me anything unfortunately. + +I know payday loans are really bad but if I’m only using it for a couple days would it really negatively affect me? This’ll be the first and last time I’m this short on money as I’ve began a new and stable job role, if there’s any better alternatives my ears are wide open. + +Thanks guys 🙏 + Exactly a year now ADA HODLers have been staking and delegating their ADA to stake pool operators = validators and getting their rewards every epoch (= 5days) and on average yearly delegation rewards of around 5%. Meaning that if you started with 100k ada you'll end up with around 105k after one year... Note that the rewards from one epoch are added to the next and the next rewards are calculated based on that, pretty sweet! + +Cool thing about staking with ADA is that your ADA is never locked and you can move it at any time, which is not the case for ETH2 and others...Also, pretty cool! + +About 70% of the total CIRCULATING supply is staked, see [https://adapools.org/press](https://adapools.org/press) and you can imagine what that means for the price once the smart contracts drop on mainnet on 9/12! + +Here's the excel file with the treasury info. [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xny1W7HhHANLNeQcnbr8El5rakJ80VIM7fgDwJ-uqys/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xny1W7HhHANLNeQcnbr8El5rakJ80VIM7fgDwJ-uqys/edit#gid=0) + +Check out [https://cardano.ideascale.com/](https://cardano.ideascale.com/) to submit your own proposal! + +With addition from u/Strictly_Haram see below: + +Cardano has a treasury built into the protocol and currently is the largest decentralized innovation fund in the world. It’s called Catalyst, and you use your ADA to vote on proposals/fund development for different dapp ecosystems, etc. + +This will eventually become full on chain governance (Voltaire) which will allow ADA holders to have full control of the chain. Whether it’s changes different parameters, funding development, etc. It really is something special and it’s unfortunate that it’s so misunderstood because it is has created a lot of hidden value for the entire crypto ecosystem. +This is a rant, although if anyone has any advice, feel free to drop it. + + +I was living with 4 other people not so long ago, in a small town in Northern California, one person decided to leave, and the landlord realized we didn't have enough income between the four of us to make triple the rent. So, we all got told we had until the end of the month and if nothing changes we'd all have to leave. So, that happened. I lost my home through no fault of my own, with nowhere lined up, no savings, and nowhere to go. I was forced to move back down to socal and live on my grandmothers couch in her small studio apartment, all of my belongings in storage. This was November. + + +Now, the only person who I could take up as a roommate is in the psych hospital and I don't know what to do. I applied for section 8, SNAP, and called over 30 low income housing places from San Bernardino to San Diego, NOTHING. All the wait lists are full, section 8 takes 8-10 years, and with my income of $2300 as a 1099 worker (with 500 a month in operating costs), I have no idea where to go next. Why the fuck is housing so goddamn expensive?? Studio apartments for over 1300? Who can afford that? Am I just doomed to couch surf or do I need to get another job? I already work 7 days a week at night and I'm so tired, I haven't had a day off since I got here and I don't feel any closer to improving my situation. What the hell are we supposed to do if nobody can afford to live in the smallest apartment? + + +Edit: Alright, looks like I've heard what I already knew and needed to hear. I have to get out. There's nothing really holding me back, I just want to live again, and this isn't it. I've already saved up about $900, now I just have to cut some expenses that won't help me if I go somewhere I can't pay them, sell off some of my stuff, and drive the hell out of this place. Thank you to all who responded, I have and will continue to read all your comments if anyone has anything to add. +I used to come to this sub and we would talk about the tech behind coins like Ardor and Ubiq, now I come here and just see idiots asking "whats gonna be the next big coin!?!11" with 28 upvotes. Kid, I can't even tell you if a solid coin like NEM is going to go up so fuck off and actually do some research and contribute to this community. People telling everyone to "Go buy ANS" which is the biggest pump and fucking dump since Bancor with half the fucking product. If you're buying a coin without doing research you're not an invester, you're not a HODLer, you're not even gambling. You're playing a fucking ponzi scheme. For you to make money someone's gotta lose, I bet half you idiots have more money in Polonex than your savings account. In fact I'm surprised this subreddit hasn't started pumping ICOs, you idiots have your head in the sand and think it's all about the money. You need to come the fuck back to reality or at least need a pitstop over at /r/Buttcoin. + +/rant + +edit: People asking how you research in a coin, I'll make a guide for that and post it here in less than an hour instead of just circlejerking with you all in the comments. Cya soon + +edit2: Here's a quick guide on researching coins: https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/6kgmuv/guide_how_to_do_some_basic_research_on_a_coin/ + +edit3: You can go through my post history and pull out comments I made 3 months ago and use them against me, that's cool and all.. I just don't see why + +edit4: People are hating on me. Again. That's fine. I could have stood up here and told you all to buy the coin I have put the largest investment in. I didn't. I came up here and spoke my mind. You want to invest in ANS? By all means. You want to invest in ETH? I won't stop you. Just keep your eyes peeled and don't lose your fucking banks because you think you can become a millionaire. + +edit5: oh look at me. I'm a hypocrite. I bought ANS and sold it when it doubled. I won't turn down an option to make money, but I will stay aware of what's happening. You should do the same. +My brother reached FIRE and retired in his 50s. He withdrew and inflation-adjusted 4% of his starting amount investment portfolio and now has twice as much money as he started. (Due to the stock market boom from 2009-2019) + +Officially, the 4% rule says you should stick with withdrawing an inflation-adjusted 4% for the rest of your life, but now that the starting amount has doubled, can't he start over and take 4% out of the new investment account total? +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the FAQ for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +Hi guys! + +I'm a mobile developer (Android) with 6 years' experience contracting via my Ltd company in central London. +I'm currently on a 6-month contract, charging £500 per day. + +I usually check IT Jobs Watch for market rates ([https://www.itjobswatch.co.uk/contracts/london/android%20developer.do](https://www.itjobswatch.co.uk/contracts/london/android%20developer.do)) +where the current median daily rate for London is listed as £493. + +So my day rate is just above average, +but I'm wondering if I can or should charge more +given my experience in the industry and the current market demand? + +What's your day rate? +Is there anyone out there charging £600pd or more? +If so, what's your experience and what sector do you work in (retail, FinTech, health care, etc)? +**Edit: There have been a lot of requests for the Google-Sheet. No guarantees I can make it happen but I will try to make it a template that you can input your own spending categories and make it work for you- this will take a few hours but I'll try to get to it this week** + +Hey Everyone, + +I figured I would make this post since it feels like those of us in the non-STEM category (and especially with lower incomes) are under-represented. + +A little about me: + +* Middle-middle class +* Single and in my late 20's. +* I do NOT work in STEM field. +* Work/Live in a very Medium Cost of Living (MCOL) city. +* Market rent in my city is apparently $1190 for 859 Sq. Ft +* Currently about 15% FI. + +Things that probably make my current savings rate possible: + +* Not Married +* No Kids +* Very low rent costs (I split a house with a couple I know through a friend of a friend) +* I live very close to work +* I don't drink alcohol +* I have a cheap hobby (running + personal finance, lol) + + +Salary: ~ $65K after bonuses + +My goal this year has been to save at least 50% of all income, and so far things are working out. I will say that I do track every penny, which I think is especially important for those of us without monster salaries. + +**Take a peak at my rig:** + +Example one is the daily dashboard - I don't have to do any inputting here. I have another google sheet that I input in all of my transactions, and vlookups and sumifs do the rest. Same thing with the Quarterly report, it all feeds from the one transaction master input and budget I created. The daily dashboard e-mails to me automatically every night at around 10:00 PM from a cool plugin called "Schedule & Send Emails in Spreadsheets" (wild name, right?) + +Example of Daily Report: + +https://imgur.com/a/oj4hb8l + +Example of Quarterly Report: + +https://imgur.com/a/dThzj5K + + +https://imgur.com/a/oFQYMuW + +**Also, you may realize the math doesn't add up perfectly to my claimed salary - the reports above do not include my 10% contributions to my Simple IRA, so my effective savings rate is actually a bit higher than what you see above. The purpose of these reports is to track the income/spending I have direct control over** +So im high and taking a massive dukie and it dawns on me................. we are gonna be talked about for generations to come. + + +Just like the story of a town in Florida who became rich due to them buying a soda company before the depression or some shit like that. + + +Or the people who say i should have bought a certain digital coin in 2013 when it was dirt cheap and someone used it to buy pizza. + + +GME investors are going to be the greatest investors of all time and many people will say we got lucky but I know it wasnt easy, I held and continue to do so becasue I did my research, i read and learned a shit tone over this 1 +year that has gone on. I dont become the very least scared when the price drops, it excits me and makes me wanna get my paycheck faster so i can dump it in my favorite stock. + + +I work with children and man it hurts to see them not have their own school or playground, so after MOASS thats one thing im gonna do, im gonna help kids have a stable school which they can revisit years after they graduate, FOR A BETTER FUTURE, CHEERS! + + +Sorry if a little ranty i just wanted to share my stoner thoughts, peace! + +Edit: holy shit I didn't expect this to get this much attention, thank you so much and I'm going to try and reply to the comments. + +Edit2: I just got out of work and find my phone blowing up, thank you all for the kind words and awards i really appreciate them. I have never had a post blow up like this and it feels so awesome to see many who think like me and for those who dont or only spread negativity, please stop, it helps no one. +MOASS IS TOMORROW! 🚀🚀🚀🚀 +My 71 year old father has been self-employed for the last 20 years and, unbeknownst to our family, has been saving some money. He's not from the USA and had/has little to no understanding of investing, let alone 401ks/IRAs. He told me recently that he has about $200,000 saved in a basic savings account. Is there anything at this point that would be a good investment for him? I know that there rules of thumb like X% in stocks and Y% in bonds depending on your age, but is there even any point in investing at his age, or should he just slowly draw down the savings account each year? He also gets SS and can probably live off $10-$12k a year. I looked through the subreddit/wiki but wasn't able to find an equivalent to this situation. Thanks. +So I took out a $20,000 personal loan at 15%, because I read on reddit that in previous recessions automotive companies bounce back. so I looked at Ford stock. It tripled in 2002 from the 2001 recession. in 2009 it went up 1700% from its lowest in 2008 recession. so I’m banking on within a year at least 100% return, then sell. + +Edit: Proof was requested so I put up a picture of my buy order. also I already had 6000 in Ford, so it’s really more than 20,000 in Ford. I kept 1000 so I can pay back some of the loan. +https://i.imgur.com/ufoTkHs.jpg +I'm down heavily on some of my investments. I invested in MTCH at $160 (now $123), Robinhood at $50 (now $14), Affirm at $109 (now $72), Farfetch at $45 (now $27) and some other smaller investments that are also running me a loss. + +I can't believe I gave into the hype. Looking back at the time of my investments, all these stocks were trading at \~80-90 their sales and they're all undergoing correction now. Some of them have lost half (if not more) of their value and it'll take decades for them to recover. + +I do have some investments that are doing really well and keeping me afloat, but I now understand the importance of the three fund portfolio, or just investing in index funds. + +I'll keep coming back to this post every time we enter a new bubble, just to discipline myself and not get carried away by the noise. + +&#x200B; + +**EDIT:** finished work and read through the comments and there seems to be some confusion around the PE I mentioned. I meant \[80, 90\] (x = variable). If the PE was around 8\~9, that'll make it a good bet and I probably wouldn't have written this. + +**EDIT 2:** Wow, lots of great advice in the comments. I really didn't expect this post to garner so much attention, but I'm thankful for all the learnings shared in the comments. I'm 26 years old and this is my third year investing. I think this fiasco was a blessing in disguise. In my first two years of investing, everything was in the green. I felt I could do no wrong and I've found the cheat code to grow my money. I've learned my lesson the hard way but I'm still young and I'd rather lose some money now than 10 years later when I have more responsibilities. + +And for those asking, I have around $230k invested in the market (apart from a Vanguard 401k, but I don't ever look at that) and my losses accrue to $65k in total. Overall, I'm still in the green but barely. Hoping to DCA more into QQQ (I work in tech so I understand Nasdaq 100 much better) and get the numbers up. +Like I said in the title there are numerous reasons to buy/hold GameStop, for one- I just like the stock, but I'm curious to see what some of the best answers are from everyone else. If you were only allowed to make one bullish point to someone, what would that point be? + +Maybe your reason is bc hedgefucks obviously didn't cover or maybe it's bc you trust RC, maybe it's the fact that GameStop has no debt, whatever you're one reason is, I'd like to hear it. + +Edit: you all are fucking awesome, post MOASS I'm buying the first round. It's been fun reading through all these, thanks for taking the time. Love you all! 🍻 +I entered the crypto market last summer during the crash. I invested in projects that I researched or those that I believed in. So no shit coins and vaporwaves in my portfolio except may be ADA but we’ll see how that turns out. + +I’ve not invested a sum that I cannot afford to lose and it’s not like my livelihood will come under risk because of this crash. + +But I do feel scared being in my first crypto bear market. I do not plan on selling and have moved my coins from exchanges. Yet I feel scared. For the first time seeing those price drops literally scares me. + +I’m not planning on getting out but I’ve learned some hard lessons like take profits on your alts and don’t get greedy. And also never be married to a position. + +Previous bear market survivors did you feel the same during your first bear market? + +Also other people in a similar position to me keep strong. + +Edit: Thanks to the person who referred to to suicide watch. However, I’m definitely not in that state of mind. So no worries. Just felt bad looking at all that value just straight up decrease day after day. +# What the Part 1 of PC Bang Theory was about + +The Part 1 was first posted on 'the old sub' where it prompted 250+ comments of diamond-level discussion amongst your fellow minority shareholders. Unfortunately it has since been deleted, but I reposted it on superstonk: [^(https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mlb3nm/the\_game\_did\_not\_stop\_project\_quick\_update\_plans/)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mlb3nm/the_game_did_not_stop_project_quick_update_plans/) + +**Here is a TL;DR of the first DD:** + +* Recent GameStop refurbishments suggest GameStop pivoting a part of their store space into a LAN cafe environment. In one of the new locations, there are 10 stations, game board space, snacks and drinks. +* PC Bangs are a cultural phenomenon in South Korea, with over 20,000 in a 31m population country. +* Kitting out all GameStop locations with 10 PCs and charging $2.5/hr could bring $350m of revenue per year, with the leasing costs of the gear at around 21% of that amount. This operated on an assumption of $2500 cost for kitting out 1 station, but this piece will show how I actually overshot this figure. +* A conservative estimate of $1 of food and drink revenue per 2 hours of gaming would net an additional revenue of $71.4m, with possible profit margins between 30 and 50%. + +# What will happen here + +* **My Creative Vision / Hypothetical Business Model: Intersection of eSports, streaming, LAN cafes, and PC building.** I will show in ape-friendly language how GameStop can build a coherent machine of LAN cafe spaces, their own brand of PCs and peripherals, and a digital content delivery platform, as well as a grassroots eSports franchise. +* I will pitch you two ideas for the GameStation product line, **the Rocket, and the Diamondhand.** +* I will show possible avenues GameStop can leverage their product line, PC bangs, cryptomining, and a OG-GameStop-style buy-back and re-sell scheme to deliver a $430m, 3.1x return in 24 months at **only 50% average capacity, and ignoring all retail Rocket sales, cross-vertical sales and food and drink sales.** + +# All Aboard the Rocket + +**Some responses to the bearish comments on v1**. I think they are valid observations, but I think the conclusions some people are drawing are boomer-wisdom uninformed by actual facts about the eSports and gaming industries in 2021 and onwards. + +&#x200B; + +* *“It won't work. It's been tried and done. It's so unprofitable that the only ones I can even find in my CITY are out of the way in a more rural part of town. Nobody wants to drive out of their way to drop their kid off to play video games and pay when something like msft's gamepass exists. It's a slippery slope too because hardware requirements are constantly changing. With no profit you'll be losing money just staying to stay current.”* +* *“We did have them. IT failed in america. Not trying to be a dickish but most kids who play games have their own computer in the US so they never turned profit. PC bangs wont catch on.”* +* *“You act like USA didn't try lan centers. They used to be huge. Then everyone got their PCs at home and they all died out. I'm GME for life but PC bangs isn't the reason. It only works with areas where the average kid doesn't get a PC. In US, kids get 5 pcs.”* + +&#x200B; + +# Maybe LAN cafes were too early? + +**I disagree that LAN cafes were a fad that came and ended.** + +I would lean towards the argument that **they were too early.** + +**I would use the following data to back that up.** + +https://preview.redd.it/l7i1wocmkrr61.png?width=931&format=png&auto=webp&s=c08e77a9f40f601c630c50212c7957230db1b0de + +>**Sources:** +> +>**^(Statista - eSports audience size worldwide from 2019 to 2024 @)** [^(https://www.statista.com/statistics/490480/global-esports-audience-size-viewer-type/)](https://www.statista.com/statistics/490480/global-esports-audience-size-viewer-type/) +> +>**^(eSports Earning History 1998-2021 @)** [^(https://www.esportsearnings.com/history)](https://www.esportsearnings.com/history) +> +>**^(History of worldwide video game industry revenues @)** [^(https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Video\_game\_industry)](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Video_game_industry) +> +>**^(TwitchTracker Twitch Viewers Statistics 2013-2021 @)** [^(https://twitchtracker.com/statistics/viewers)](https://twitchtracker.com/statistics/viewers) +> +>[^(https://www.wepc.com/news/video-game-statistics/)](https://www.wepc.com/news/video-game-statistics/) + +&#x200B; + +The whole of 2004 eSports would only be the 7th top earning **PLAYER** in 2019 (last good year for them before Covid). + +But most of all, in the 2000s, whether you like it or not, **PC online gaming was in its infancy compared to now**. Everything supports this, player numbers, viewerships, player skill, connection quality, game quality, etc. + +I cite mainly eSports values here, because that community houses the most engaged and hardcore gamers, who have long been neglected and called ‘nerds’, whereas everyone likes games, really. What I’m trying to say, gamers will be very grateful for creating something that is REALLY for them. + +&#x200B; + +**eSports and the PC bang model provide a perfect synergy for several reasons:** + +* F2P competitive games like LoL, CS, Dota, even Apex etc. pose much lower performance requirements than AAA titles. +* F2P competitive games provide a customer base all the time, not just when an AAA title is launching or in the news. +* The focus on eSports provides this whole GameStop journey possibility of being a kid in one of the GameStops smashing it, and making it all the way to the GameStop team, the GameStop cups, pro circuit, what have you. +* This synergy can be observed in South Korea already. + +&#x200B; + +**This is my reasoning for why I strongly disagree with the viewpoint that ‘LAN cafes didn’t work out then, and they won’t work out now.’** + +&#x200B; + +**Even if we assume that the past failure of these attempts will be a predictor of GameStop's future performance in this area:** + +&#x200B; + +>*The LAN cafes were tried, and failed. It stands to reason that GameStop's attempt at the LAN cafe market will have a higher likelihood of failure than average.* + +&#x200B; + +**I believe even if this statement is valid, GameStop has a range of business advantages over any operation, in 2005 and now.** + +1. LAN cafes were historically under marketed and hard to find. **GameStop has 55 million subscribers** on the PowerUp newsletter, last I heard. +2. GameStop will secure **wholesale prices on all gear** and can negotiate sizable discounts on orders of this volume. +3. Credit lines, notes, $1bn share issue, bonds to fund — mom and pop shops had this? +4. GameStop are often found in malls, many of which belong to large chains of holders, and can negotiate leases in bulk. +5. GameStop already has the locations which are staying above water without this revenue. They are removing unprofitable ones. The post-Covid market is also prime to snap up new opportunities in high-traffic areas. +6. After 2008 even the eSports prize winning took a hit, imagine what happened to the leases of mom-and-pop LAN cafes that serve kids whose parents are now losing their houses? + +&#x200B; + +**GameStop had 5,509 locations in Feb 2020. The latest earnings report cites:** + +>*"Strategically de-densified the Company’s store base by closing a net 693 stores in fiscal 2020 while transferring sales to online platforms and neighboring locations;"* +> +>**^(GameStop Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2020 Results @)** [^(https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2020-results)](https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2020-results) + +Which leaves us with approximately **4,816 locations**. While this fact of closing down locations is misconstrued by media to be a signal of GameStop's financial troubles, it is the most prudent thing to do during a pandemic, and during a transition to eCommerce which has already seen + +&#x200B; + +>*"Global E-Commerce sales (included in comparable stores sales) increased* ***191% increase*** *for the fiscal year and represented* ***nearly 30% of total net sales***\*; "\* + +This result is no fluke. It is a modest beginning of what will be become an unstoppable force in the $180bn gaming industry. + +&#x200B; + +Ms. / Mrs. **Neda Pacifico** has been hired in a VP e-Commerce position, directly after 3.5 years at Chewy, and 4.5 years in Amazon as **'Director and GM for DISTRIBUTION and Multi-Channel Fulfillment'**. + +Also hired, was **Mr. Ken Suzuki**! Mr. Suzuki was in charge of **Supply Chain Technology** at Zulily, which is an exclusively e-commerce clothin retailer with 6.1 million customers across 85 countries placing 56% of their orders from mobile phones. He will work in the same capacity on GameStop's transition! **^(Source:)** [^(https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/zulily-facts-statistics/)](https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/zulily-facts-statistics/) + +**^(MAR23 -)** **^(GameStop Appoints Chief Operating Officer Announces Two and Additional Executive Hires to Support Transformation @)** [^(https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-appoints-chief-operating-officer)](https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-appoints-chief-operating-officer) + +&#x200B; + +**What is Multi-Channel Fulfillment?** + +It is the service behind all individual sellers offering 1 and 2-day delivery by storing stock at Amazon warehouses. + +&#x200B; + +>*Store your inventory in our warehouses, and lower your fulfillment costs with Amazon’s competitive rates and scalable capacity. - This resource also states 'Monitor' as a Product Example, with a $78.30 shipping cost listed* + +**^(Amazon - Multi-Channel Fulfillment @)** [^(sell.amazon.com/fulfillment-by-amazon/fba-multi-channel.html)](https://sell.amazon.com/fulfillment-by-amazon/fba-multi-channel.html) + +&#x200B; + +**Why do I think it is relevant to what I want to talk about?** + +Well, moving the vast majority of fulfillment to the ecommerce home delivery channels using state of the art warehouses, floor space in retail locations is freed up. + +I am sure that these professionals are already working on the perfect equilibrium between top selling retail items and store space allocated, and what and how to move to the home delivery fulfilment channel. + +We have already seen posts of **2-hour GameStop deliveries using DoorDash**. Well, is it out of the realm of possibility that an 1-hour link can be established between some distribution centres and some retail locations? Play while you wait. For free. Get the taste of the **GameStop Experience**. + +&#x200B; + +# Creative Vision: Intersection of eSports, LAN cafes, and PC building. + +I believe just like the eSports and PC bangs have a synergy, there is a natural consequence of this synergy, namely considerable space for a GameStop branded gaming station and a product line of accessories and peripherals. + +&#x200B; + +GameStop has traditionally lived on the console cycle. The consoles will still be a key product in every GameStop. The XBOX Series X costs $499, so does the PS5. Xbox Live costs $9.99 a month, so does PSPlus. + +The PC has traditionally been the more advanced option, offering greater freedom etc but with a larger setup cost and learning curve. + +Until now. + +**What if GameStop could offer a mid-high range gaming PC for a ‘similar’ price?** + +[Graphical fidelity and aesthetic coherence is not my strong suit, throwing stuff together in a few minutes is, though, so behold this beauty.](https://preview.redd.it/aujet3lyfsr61.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=23a4a1b6804c0b1a71d8f3b5f958e8a2a6a027ca) + +u/philiciousphilosoph: *“just an idea: the equivalent of Chewy sending out self drawn portraits of the customers pet would be to allow gamers to brand their PC or gaming chair bought at gamestop with their GAMERTAG. that would be awesome!”* + +Great idea. + +**And this one I just couldn’t resist, for the apes.** + +&#x200B; + +[We could sell a million just on Reddit, right now.](https://preview.redd.it/332zxthwfsr61.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1496ca6b60ef7299b7a3656d3723a7fd707c7439) + +The Rocket could be offered at just under $2500, with an initial cost in the range of the top consoles, $499. For the whole lot. You don’t need anything else to smash noobs in any game you want if you have the Rocket. It’s an honest cost to the parent weighing it up against the console. It can be budgeted for. There is nothing waiting around the corner for the kid to want. And they can do homework on it, and the Zoom classes will be super smooth! \*wink\* \*wink\* + +# Assembling the Rocket + +I believe the optimal subcontractor for this project would be a company like CoolerMaster. In fact, it wouldn’t be a company like CoolerMaster, it would be CoolerMaster. They have been around since 1992, they do extremely solid gear at reasonable prices (although it breaks if you punch it, as I have found). They do the majority of relevant components, as they produce extremely robust: + +* PC Towers / ATX Cases +* Cooling +* Mice +* Keyboards +* Mousepads etc +* Power Supply Units +* Even headphones, which I haven’t used +* Even monitors, which I haven’t used + +So we are ticking off the majority of boxes with one supplier, the list of remaining components reads: + +* Motherboard +* CPU +* GPU +* RAM + +These are the high-ticket components where we don’t have a choice of supplier, really. GPU has to be N-vidia or A-M-D, CPU has to be A-M-D or Intel. Motherboard and RAM there is wiggle room and would be wise to secure from one supplier. + +The ideal arrangement would have the units assembled already at the CoolerMaster location, hopefully out of the States where labour for assembly will be slightly cheaper, and introducing simply less complexity for GameStop. + +CoolerMaster even has Headphones, which I have not used, unlike all of the above CM stuff, but will be sufficient and convenient for producing the complete GameStop range. I am glad to find out they now produce a 165hz monitor, the Coolermaster GM27-CF which is on Amazon for $295. The industry gaming standard, a 144hz 27" BenQ, costs $299, but the Coolermaster has a slight technical advantage with a bit more refresh rate, although with a slower response rate. In my opinion, it is good enough to compete with the industry standard, and the bigger total order they can park at CoolerMaster, the more competitive rates can be on everything. + +In my experience, Coolermaster does a bulk of sales online and in very specialty gaming shops. It is gear for the ones who play a lot, and go through a lot of gear. It is robust, simple, and cheap. You will not find much of it in a big chain. They have 9 items total in Best Buy. As a European I can strongly recommend them. They will not be thinking about business lost by competing with this line, because they don’t really have a field to compete right now. + +Another great partner would be Corsair, with a more high-profile brand, however it is a US company (CM is Taiwanese), and would likely charge higher premiums. Their marketing leverage may be a bonus that’s worth the premium, however, if a coherent marketing drive from both sides is produced. + +From personal experience, for Corsair I can say that they make keyboards that survive short Pepsi Max (Ladder) Attacks. + +&#x200B; + +**Here is the spec for the Rocket I made with completely retail prices:** + +|Type|Item|Price| +|:-|:-|:-| +|**CPU**|Intel Core i5-10600K 4.1 GHz 6-Core Processor|$224.99 @ Newegg| +|**CPU Cooler**|Cooler Master Hyper 212 LED 66.3 CFM Rifle Bearing CPU Cooler|$26.99 @ Newegg| +|**CPU Cooler**|Cooler Master Hyper 212 RGB Black Edition 57.3 CFM CPU Cooler|$34.99 @ Newegg| +|**Motherboard**|Asus PRIME H410M-E Micro ATX LGA1200 Motherboard|$83.98 @ Newegg| +|**Memory**|Corsair Vengeance LPX 32 GB (2 x 16 GB) DDR4-3600 CL18 Memory|$164.99 @ Newegg| +|**Storage**|ADATA XPG GAMMIX S7 2 TB M.2-2280 NVME Solid State Drive|$199.99 @ Best Buy| +|**Video Card**|NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 8 GB Founders Edition Video Card|$499| +|**Case**|Cooler Master MasterBox MB320L ARGB MicroATX Mid Tower Case|$64.99 @ Newegg| +|**Power Supply**|Cooler Master MWE Gold 650 W 80+ Gold Certified Fully Modular ATX Power Supply|$100.99 @ B&H| +|**Monitor**|Cooler Master GM27-CF 27.0" 1920x1080 165 Hz Monitor|\- $299| +|**Keyboard**|Cooler Master CK552 RGB Wired Gaming Keyboard|$79.98 @ Amazon| +|**Mouse**|Cooler Master MM831 Wireless Optical Mouse|$69.99 @ Newegg| +|**Headphones**|Cooler Master CM Storm Sirus 5.1 w/ Tactical Mixing Console 5.1 Channel Headset|$79.99| + +# Total: $1929 + +I picked the highest or almost-highest quality headset, mouse, keyboard that Coolermaster makes. The GPU is the futureproof option (not the more budget 3060, although it could equally be), the CPU is the best budget option that holds its own with the top10, RAM is abundant and fast, so is the storage. It’s not a mid-range PC. It’s a solid high-end machine right now. This runs 75fps+ in Cyberpunk on 1080p, and gets 250-400fps in any online shooter you want with the settings that you've been playing with up to now on your potato PC. You can stream, you can mine crypto, you can squeeze the shorts, the world is your oyster with the GameStation. + +**The $1929 is just what the total retail prices for all of those items come to. It assumes $499 for the RTX3070, because that’s what they’re meant to be, GUH.** + +The PC comes to $1400, offering $1799 an attractive price point, or at $299 + $79.99/month. + +I believe a $2500 complete GameStation is a sweet deal. RTX3070 is so futureproof you can’t get it in the present right now, 32GB RAM, 2TB M2 drive, 165hz monitor, full accessories, everything preinstalled? RGBs. Dude. + +https://preview.redd.it/rcgpim5m9sr61.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=2187aaa0b38e507c232ecf601bcb4c0939dc3b7e + +# Market Space + +I made a comparable PC on iBuyPower, it would come to $2774 retail with this CPU, RTX3070, matching spec internals and matching quality peripherals. + +There may be other builds, they may offer a better value for money in cases. But they don’t have the GameStop marketing machine behind it. You can’t really go and try every build in a shop. And really, do you feel a difference between an i5 and i7? All you need to know is it can run your favourite game. And this Rocket can run EVERYONE’s FAVOURITE GAME right now. + +PC building can be done by anyone with Google and an Amazon account, but you have to do your research to get value for money. You have to know that the i5-10600k is the best budget gaming CPU right now. You have to find the best graphics card deal (lol, not rn I guess). + +**With the Rocket, you don’t have to know. It’s ready.** + +There is a pure \~$500 profit margin to collect on top of just the sum of the retail of all these parts, and this is not factoring in: + +1. Sizable discounts at CoolerMaster +2. Discounts on bulk at Intel, Nvidia, motherboard/RAM supplier? + +There could be a potential four-digit profit margin per unit. + +GameStop has a sizable advantage to leverage to break into the PC builder and accessories market. + +* They are their own distributor. + +They can cut out the margin of the part assembler/wholesaler like Alienware and keep it for themselves. + +* They are their own retail. + +They control how much, and how the competition is framed against their product. They can take the margin of the retailer (that someone like Alienware loses), and keep it for themselves, while directing their users towards their digital platform offering, which someone like Alienware does not have and never will. + +Every Rocket has the GameStop system (digital content delivery platform), whatever it may be in the future, preinstalled. It has all the F2P competitive games preinstalled, Discord, what have you. It is ready. It is as plug-and-play as a console, but with a mouse and keyboard. Every new Rocket gets a free AAA title of choice on the house. + +Their hiring suggests they will be building a wide-scale digital marketplace/platform, and the Rocket forms a coherent part of the puzzle to cover maximum revenue streams. + +# Launching the Rocket + +There are a number of tech and gaming YouTubers and streamers invested in GME right now. I saw LinusTechTips on the frontpage here once, I don’t know anything about that guy, but I’m sure there are others. There are also hundreds of high-profile gamers, reviewers and streamers. Send them a Rocket. They can review it, they can give it away to their viewers, all it matters is that the Rockets are out there. + +The Rocket should constitute a large part of the prize pool of any GameStop events, they should be given away at every pro-circuit event GameStop is present at. You can create a PC that can contend with the consoles. I really believe this shit. + +Employ a few people from ESL or similar tournament organizer, and build that whole infrastructure. GameStop tournaments played on GameStation Rockets, with the audience winning Rockets, Diamondhands, what have you. GameStop tournaments watched in a million homes on a million Rockets. + +# Additional Revenue Stream Idea: Crypto + +The RTX3070 quoted in the Rocket is ridiculous, okay? Sure, it’s not a standalone mining rig, but there is a reason you can’t buy these right now. They are just that good. + +At the US average electricity price of $0.1319/kWh, the Rocket can produce the following revenue mining crypto: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/7tefgixo9sr61.png?width=402&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5225df24089d208e8b0fc020d03afb0601b835a + +GameStops are open 8 hours, let’s say another hour of downtime, so 15 hours of mining overnight would produce $3.1, or $1131 per year. + +The retail cost of the PC unit alone was $1400, so if the parts were sourced on a 2-year loan or lease, by month 15 you would be outrunning the cost on crypto alone. + +&#x200B; + +**In 24 months, we could possibly get:** + +**4992 hours of gaming x $2.50** = $12,480 + +**10950 hours of mining x $0.206** = $2,255 + +**Sell-off at 40% in 2023** = $560 + +**Total = $15,295** + +Each Rocket unit could generate a revenue up to $15,295 depending on % capacity in a 24-month period. + +&#x200B; + +**Of course, in about 18-36 months, there would come a huge sell-off of half-price Rockets.** + +I don’t have knowledge of what 16 hours of mining does to an RTX3070. I imagine it does something. This would have to be studied, because it could potentially damage the GameStop brand after the Rocket sell-off that needs to take place to update the GameStop locations to the next generation of the GameStation. Anywhere between 30 and 60% of the cost could be recouped in a huge campaign that would get the last-gen product into the hands of less well off gamers. It will still run the F2P competitive games at ridiculous FPS like it does today, it just may not get 100fps in the AAAs of 2023. + +However, the overnight mining offers $2255 of pure profit (the calc I used already subtracted electricity cost). If there is evidence of burnout of the GPU due to the mining, perhaps there wouldn’t be a large public campaign for the sell-off, and they could be sold off in bulk to a wholesaler or parts breaker with no guarantee. This would decrease the sell-off return, but the $2255 mining profit still outweighs that heavily. Also, the coins mined could increase in value exponentially, they should be immediately diversified into a wide range of coins to maximize the chances of that happening, and giving GameStop a potential airdrop war chest. Ryan Cohen is a prudent investor, I’m sure he can arrange this with a degree of success. + +# OG GameStop Hustle - Rocket Buyback + +Doing this way, GameStop could also offer a buy-back for all Rockets sold to retail at say 30-40% of original cost, and sell together with the PC bang ones to the wholesaler at a premium. This would aid more customers upgrading to the next generation of the GameStation in 2023, they could receive whatever cash, or whatever+20% credit for the next-gen GameStation. + +There is a balance to be struck by buying back all Rockets at say 30%, selling vast majority of them to wholesalers at say 40%, and reselling the ones that came back from retail (for sure less mining usage than our stock) to retail at say 50-60%. It’s the OG GameStop hustle. Buy low, sell high. All the percentages are just made up, we don’t know how new generations of CPUs and GPUs will shape the second hand market for 2023. But the gaps in-between can realistically be scalped. + +Conservatively assuming 50% gaming capacity, 75% crypto mining efficiency (the calculator I used could be generous, I have no idea), and some crypto-inflicted risk of failure resulting in wholesale sell off to a breaker at 40% of initial, cost, each Rocket would still return $8491 from a max $1400 investment (max because it’s retail prices). + +# Bottom Line + +**At 10 Rockets per 4816 locations, that’s a $408.9m return on a $67.4m investment in 24 months. Even if you count $2500 for costs of desk, chair, and peripherals - that's $120.4m total.** + +**If GameStop gave away 10,000 Rockets in competitions, tourneys, raffles, giveaways and to influencers, the PC bang Rockets would still return a 304% profit on the whole structure. At 50% capacity, 75% mining efficiency, 40% on resell.** + +In fact, even if nobody ever came to game on them, they could hypothetically make a 30% return per unit from crypto and sell-off alone. + +&#x200B; + +# Here is a visualisation of the above ideas: + +&#x200B; + +[Weaponised ADHD](https://preview.redd.it/50o3k6lbgsr61.png?width=1908&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0bc7407711d56e26cf5de0d33c06a2b39c3ae9d) + +&#x200B; + +**And of course, as always up to now, just remember:** + +>*This doesn't even take into account the cross-vertical sales. If they're hanging out in the store, they'll be more likely to drop money on that new pre-order that's just around the corner.* +> +>**^(from)** u/atomicxblue + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/8dnr4hyxasr61.png?width=411&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f70d6c0521456f3f1c4fa2f62efa842355681b9 + +**I am now working full-time to research and write about GME. If you enjoy long-form written content, please visit my profile and browse the archive of daily posts. You will also find a way to support this endeavour!** +I'm currently refinancing one of two single family rentals I have for around $145k cash out. I'm looking to invest with a turnkey company that reviewed highly on BiggerPockets. My question, is this a good use of this money? I'm in the Denver area, so finding good deals is nearly impossible, especially with all the local big dogs sweeping up all the deals. The turnkey company I'm talking with shows between 10% - 20% ROI on their properties in Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Alabama, and a few other midwest states. +I'm just curious how much most people started with and how much they're now making off of rental income in all. (and how long it took to get to that point) +I am interested to hear routes people used to finance rental properties, what payment was put down, and borrowing rates. It would be cool to hear how many properties you own and how you financed each purchase. + +My situation: I leave on the east cost of the US, I own one rental property in full with no mortgage, I am about to purchased a home with a mortgage, and I want to buy another rental property. I am still in the very early stages of researching options and it would be interesting to hear others stories in the current market. +Ones for sale $449k and the other is $159k. I'm a pretty creative guy and can raise money, but this one is stumping me. I know its a tremendous opportunity with the right approach. Any creative ideas jump to mind? These are both in C or D areas but willing to bet I could get city and state funding/credits to turn them around and get them back on the tax rolls. +What are the biggest pains of managing your own rental portfolio? + +I own 28 units and have always used a property management company, but recently I’ve been considering cutting the property management and managing myself, online payments and service requests have simplified a lot of the old issues of managing, but I’m looking to find what issues still exist, thank you for all your input! +so I know that if I'm to get a loan in my LLC's name rather than my personal name the terms are way worse. is there a way to, I guess "build up credit" for my LLC? + +I personally have an 800 credit score so I could get pretty close to half the interest rate for a personal conventional loan. + +I'm only really looking at refying one rental, and I haven't even transferred ownership into the LLC's name yet. + +are there some banks better than others about this? +23 year old graduating College next year with a starting salary of $65,000. No debt and My Moms home is paid off and I plan on living there for quite a while. She's allowing me to use 80k of her money to invest and I was wondering if you were my age what would you do? I plan on using a FHA loan and putting 3.5% down on a SFH that cashflows at least $300+ dollars and if that works out plan on buying more. I heard there is PMI which can add additional cost to the mortgage so is it better if I put down at least 20% or is it worth the leverage power? +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +It felt like it would never crash. Now that it's a bear market people feel like it will never go up again. Just want to point out that the current state always feels "permanent" but the market never is. Nobody knows if we are going up, down or trading sideways but we should know that no state is permanent. +Calls are free money. Stonks only go straight to the moon with no detours. Market tops don't fucking exist. America is #1 and trade wars are easy to win as you can tell by our record high stock market. If you are still buying puts in this market please seek serious mental help because you are actually fucking retarded. + +11/29 $SPY 320C +Not some YouTube guru spewing the stuff you want to hear, but someone who has experience that you can get an opinion from on your trades/views/etc. + +Does anyone have any interesting stories on how they met their mentor or the impact a mentor had on them inside and outside of trading? +I was just going about my life without a care in the world. Enjoying my evening just like any other VET holder would. In fact, I was actually doing some research into VeChain and why it's so great. See, the problem with VeChain is there's so many new developments it's hard to keep track of them all. + +Oh, you helped track ocean waste? Brilliant. + +Shrimps? Why the hell not? + +Tracking parcels with major courier companies? Cheeky. + +Authenticating vape products. VeChain is doing it. + +Car manufacturers, transport and logistics, telecommunications, vape companies. It doesn't matter what industry. Vechain has got partnerships coming out of its arse. + +So then my phone beeped. That's weird I thought. I wonder what that could be. + +It's probably some news about Vechain. Yeah it simply has to be about VET. + +I mean, it's Thursday. It really has to be??!! + +"Shibu Inu (SHIB) is now on Coinbase. You can trade, send, receive, or store Shiba Inu (SHIB) today on Coinbase." + +Sometimes crypto defies logic and reason and you just gotta love it for what it is. + +Although I am honestly surprised that Shib is listed before VET. + +I really think all those partnerships will mean so much in the long run. When the market isn't so dictated by hype, utility will prevail and VeChain has that covered. +The latest bill Warren has proposed is a dangerous one that seeks to cut regular Russians from crypto. According to the bill, exchanges, intermediaries etc should stop dealing with addresses originating from Russians. + +She is seeking to cut off every Russian from crypto even though they have nothing to do with Putin's war. What is worse is that even decentralised protocol devs could be held liable if somehow a Russian ends up using their protocol or tool. How does this make any sense? Protocol developers have no way of limiting who uses their software. + +FBI, White House, Treasury department have all said that crypto is not being used to evade sanctions in any serious sums worth paying attention to. + +https://www.coincenter.org/new-crypto-sanctions-bill-targets-publishing-code-facilitating-transactions/ + +> Bill would place sweeping restrictions on persons who build, operate, and use cryptocurrency networks even if they have no knowledge or intent to help evade sanctions though the Administration’s own experts have repeatedly said cryptocurrency evasion is not serious + +> Senator Warren and a raft of Democratic co-sponsors today introduced a bill titled the Digital Asset Sanctions Compliance Enhancement Act, which would place sweeping restrictions on the cryptocurrency ecosystem under the guise of bolstering sanctions against Russia for its unjustified invasion of Ukraine. She has done this despite the fact that there is no data suggesting that cryptocurrency has been used–or can meaningfully be used–by sanctioned parties to evade sanctions, and despite the fact that frontline officials from the White House, Treasury, and the Department of Justice have all stated that cryptocurrency is a poor tool for sanctions evasion and one that they have well under control. + +> For example, FBI Director Christopher Wray said last Thursday at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing: + +> The Russians’ ability to circumvent the sanctions with cryptocurrency is probably highly overestimated on the part of maybe them and others. We are, as a community and with our partners overseas, far more effective on that than I think sometimes they appreciate. + +White House has also said "cryptocurrency is an ineffective primary tool for the state" + +It is well reported that the Russian state is planning or already using Chinese Yuan, Indian government's aide to evade sanctions, not crypto. + + +Why is she so unhinged against crypto? Someone must be funding her so much that she spends her entire time talking shit about crypto and brining about senseless regulations. + +She does not even understand crypto, yet comes up with senseless regulations that cannot be complied in good faith. +I'm interest are people in trouble and thinking of selling, or are you buying a house but now can't because your borrowing power is so low or the banks changed it mind? Or is life getting just to expansive and your starting to get in trouble? + +Not after details just interested if all these fear stories about a property market collapse have any real underlining steam. +I know it's not much, but it was my goal for this month. + +Should I transfer it from where it is to a custodial wallet? I know how the saying goes "Not your keys, not your bitcoin", but I didn't think it mattered before I hit 0.01BTC + +So, should I wait until I hit 0.1 or should I transfer my BTC now + +EDIT for clarification: not talking about cold wallets here, I'm talking about online custodial wallets + +Second EDIT: wow, thanks for the award! It's my first and probably my last + +Third edit: I'm so dumb you guys, I meant non custodial. It's currently in an exchange. The questions is whether I should move it to a non custodial wallet or keep it there. +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. + +I know this gets posted semi-frequently, but markets move fast and so this opinion is always changing. What are some stocks that you put a fraction of your investing money in that you know is risky, but are betting for long term potential? I’ll list some of mine. + +Rover (ROVR): Just went public via a SP@C and is the dominator in the pet sitting market. Very strong upside emerging post-Covid with people going on vacations/returning to office. Lots of COVID adoptions for pets has expanded the Rover market tremendously. + +Proterra (PTRA): IPO’d this year. Manufacturer of electric buses with customers ranging from colleges and universities to National Parks to cities in the US for local transportation. Also breaking into the school bus and commercial vehicle markets. + +Corsair Gaming (CRSR): a company from my opinion (and the opinion of many analysts) is INCREDIBLY underrated. With gaming/streaming expecting to grow rapidly over the next few years, this company provides a lot of the equipment necessary for it. + +Coinbase (COIN): Crypto wallet with more uses than just buying and selling cryptocurrencies. I’m a big believer in Ethereum so I like the support for DEFI and Dapps. + +Array Technologies (ARRY): Develops the ground mounts necessary for solar panels to move with the sun to achieve max exposure and thus better efficiency. Offices across the Americas and Europe. +My SO was having recurring health problems from 2010 that became more frequent and more intense through last year before her surgery: Nausea, vomiting and abdominal pain that would worsen over the course of several hours. A handful of ER visits and consultations led us to a surgeon who had gone through precisely what my SO had, and she recommended removal of the organ immediately. Her episodes stopped completely. She obviously still gets nausea from time to time, but it's never the violent episodes that required medical intervention. It should be added that she has a handful of family members who have also had the gall bladder removed and saw a significant QoL improvement in the months after. + +Now over a year later, Blue Cross Blue Shield has decided that the surgery wasn't necessary and she will be required to pay $12,000 for the surgery. What can she do? Any insight is appreciated, thanks. +Hey team, Physician here working the front lines of the US COVID outbreak. I don’t have a degree in finance, I trade options as a hobby, and I fuckin love the banter that goes on in this sub. Being that the select few actually who know things about options do me the kindness of posting their well thought out DD, I figured I’d give some of my own DD on the various outcomes and their possible lengths of time so that we can all stop speculating about tHiS WiLl Be oVeR iN tWo WeEkS or the alternative doomsday hypotheses. The data I’ll be going off is how the world is currently in terms of the rapidity of rising cases. We’ll use this to speculate different outcomes from here so we can all time the market and donate to our local healthcare organizations on payday. + +As I’m writing this, in the US we have rapidly spreading cases in the areas where COVID-19 is present (NY, WA, CA, and NJ is up and coming). In those places life as we know it has shut down. In the smaller cities in the US and states with < 100 cases, things are ramping up but big change hasn’t yet been enacted. We have increased testing, which certainly can account for some of the increased reporting of cases, regardless our doubling time is now around 24-36 hours. This is why governor Newsom of CA enacted the statewide shutdown, because if he didn’t, with the doubling time there would be 26 million people infected in 8 weeks. This is not unique to New York or California, they simply are a few weeks ahead of the states that are only reporting double digit cases as of today. A quarter of Americans are on functional lockdown, if it hasn’t gotten to you yet, the shutdown is coming. + +I think the naysayers are becoming fewer and fewer as the world wakes up to the gravity of the situation, but I would like to say at this point our biggest enemy is the rapidly decreasing doubling time, and the only way to fight it is through quarantine and social distancing. Flattening the curve is imperative, if we don’t we are risk of overwhelming our healthcare system resulting in full wartime triage mode as has happened in [parts of Italy](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-triage-patients-who-need-intensive-care/). + +So, what happens next? + +There are a few scenarios. + +# + +# A drug that is already approved and widely produced is found to be effective in treating COVID-19. + +This is the best-case scenario. One example is the drug that was shuttled through the pipelines this week is hydroxychloroquine (I hate the stuff, makes water taste like chlorine for 8 hours after you take it) -- it’s a drug that’s been used for years to treat malaria. There isn’t a beautiful double-blinded placebo-controlled case series for use of it in COVID-19, but I laid eyes on the prelim data they’re talking about and the anecdotal evidence for treatment seems hopeful at least. In theory, this would work how Tamiflu works for influenza --- it won’t “cure” COVID-19, but it would save us all by decreasing the burden on the healthcare system by decreasing the duration and severity of symptoms in those infected. Speaking to an epidemiologist, if we have a treatment such as this it will downgrade the pandemic to a containable pandemic. + +**For the market:** + +A successful, already approved, mass-producible, safe medication to reduce severity of illness is the ONLY scenario I can see in which we could maybe have the “V-shaped return” of the market our Commander in Chief is touting. I still don’t think it will be V-shaped by any means, but at least the uncertainty of apocalypse would wane in the coming weeks. + +**Issues with this:** Production and distribution. It would be slow, and then it would be a bit faster, but still slow, and then it would pick up, but not enough to make everyone happy. The silver lining here: Trump signed the Defense Production Act, which means we could potentially have every capable pharmaceutical company work together to make millions of units a month. + +&#x200B; + +# An already available drug doesn’t work, and a different drug is approved as successful treatment + +The drugs Gilead, Regeneron, and others are working on function similarly to Tamiflu, a viral neuraminidase inhibitor, which basically inhibits an enzyme that allows the virus to successfully replicate. This could work beautifully, but it would take a while. + +**For the market:** + +If the existing drugs don’t work, the fastest timeline (even with Trump lifting red tape) to get a new drug approved and start producing is on the order of months, during which time the number of cases continues in [an exponential curve](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) and we reach millions infected from the unchecked spread. + +**Issues with this:** + +Slower timeline / potentially low yield reward – we make drugs like this all the time, and sometimes you spend years developing a new protease inhibitor or a drug to stop viral entry into the cell and they simply don’t work. That’s why HIV was initially so hard to treat with drugs: every time we’d block a receptor for cell entry it would just use a different one, every time we blocked an enzyme the virus uses it would just use a different one to circumvent. HAART therapy for HIV that we finally landed on as successful treatment blocks cell entry and inhibits several different enzymes to cripple the virus via different pathways at the same time. We all know how that went in the 80s -- it could take years to come up with a successful combination therapy to give COVID the ol’ 1-2. + +&#x200B; + +# Existing drugs don’t work, the new drugs we’re making aren’t effective, and we have to wait for a vaccine. + +The sentence above doesn’t sound all that bad until you really think about it. The absolute fastest we could make a vaccine available to the public on a mass scale is probably around a year from now. There are so many problems with finding a vaccine that works at every step: find an antigen (a structure that an antibody can bind to) that the virus will always express to target; find an antigen that we can make specific antibodies to; how long will immunity last? Can we do it without using live virus particles? + +HIV has been around for decades, and we now have control of the virus through therapy (downgrades it in terms of pandemic severity, right??). So why don’t we have a vaccine? Two reasons -- one because the sugar-proteins present on the outside of the virus are similar to sugar-proteins present in a lot of cells in our own body, so its very difficult to make antibodies to them. The second reason is because HIV destroys your immune system, [but that's not important right now](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLpBtDRkuD8). The idea here is that a vaccine could work if we find the right target, but then you have to see if it’s safe (do people die when you give it to them? Do they get sick? How sick?) You have to see if it works (Do people get COVID-19 when you give it to them? *How do you know they don’t*? How many people get it? Does it stop infection by 100% or 50%?) Basically after it’s deemed safe, you have to make sure it’s effective by giving it to people and putting them out into the population to see if they get COVID, if they don’t then you go back and start mass producing it and give to more people, reassess and repeat. If the vaccine isn’t effective and patients do get COVID, or perhaps even *if more of them get it* (which happened with some HIV vaccine trials) then you’re back to the drawing board, and repeat. + +&#x200B; + +**What does the world look like if we have to wait 12-18 months for a treatment?** + +In my opinion? Worldwide quarantine, worldwide social distancing. No air travel unless you have an approved reason, complete shutting of international borders, probably shutting of state borders. A world without treatment and without a vaccine *is a bad world*. New York City was called to shutdown after just 250 cases. There simply isn’t a world in which we could get below a few hundred cases in *any major city* without very successful treatment or a vaccine. What does this look like for the next 12-18 months? Quarantine for weeks, cases drop from tens of thousands to hundreds, perhaps double digits, loosen restrictions, life returns to semi-normal, then cases jump, quarantine for weeks… repeat. The virus is spread so easily, the first reported case in the United States was 9 weeks ago tomorrow, and now we’re in the tens of thousands. The only way to stop spread is to have a treatment for current infections or go to zero cases, otherwise it’s just a waxing and waning quarantined / global shutdown life until we get a vaccine. + +&#x200B; + +**How does the market look in this scenario?** + +Puts on life as we know it, my dudes. + +&#x200B; + +**The final broad range scenario** is a treatment is ineffective, no new drugs work, and a vaccine isn’t as effective as we want it to be. In this scenario, some small percentage of the world dies (0.5% mortality would be in the 10s of millions), and we just rely on [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity) to eventually get us through it. + +&#x200B; + +# The good news + +So, **the good news** is there are a lot of different scenarios in which this will become a very scary thing of the past, as any one of these scenarios (except the last) could produce effective therapy, or any combination of them could work too – hey, maybe hydroxychloroquine is somewhat effective, we get a few new Tamiflu-like drugs, and we get a vaccine in a year. You would never know it from this, but I’m quite the optimist, and I tend to think something along these lines is the more likely outcome rather than nothing works and we wait at home for a year for the world to go back to normal. Either way, the bottom line is: this isn’t almost over. The 2-4 week self-quarantines are the first step, not the solution. You need to get that in your heads. + +&#x200B; + +# In the meantime: + +Flattening the curve – follow your local recommendations please. Socially distance yourselves. Have skype drinking parties. Jack off across the room from your bro, not next to him. + +Protect your elders – buy them groceries, encourage them to stop going to public places, go to pick up supplies for them, explain how they are at risk (mortality rates are around 8-10% for those in their 70s, 14%+ for those in their 80s). Otherwise healthy 60, 70, 80 year-olds are also at risk, it isn’t just gran with a heart condition. + +Stay safe. Be smart. Wash your hands. Don’t be dickhole and scoff at quarantines. + +&#x200B; + +\*Disclaimer – this is all speculation. I will not give individual medical advice. If you have questions about your health or that of a loved one please contact your physician or go in person for evaluation and treatment. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Edit: TL;DR for the most of you: From a medical standpoint, this isn't almost over. There are a lot of ways to return to normalcy, the best of them would see life back to normal on the order of months, the worst could be 1-2 years -- with variable economic fallout depending on what your poison is. Protect your elders and be smart about not contributing to the spread. Volatility is still very high. Use it to your advantage if you want. +Hi, + +So I made the mistake of investing too much of my money into the markets (80%)+ and now with the markets crashing I am stuck bag holding. I have some stocks which were speculative and I lost a bunch on but that's ok I was prepared for that. In the end I just put too much of my savings into the markets and now I'm stressed seeing the markets down each day. I wasn't aware of my risk tolerance and obviously going through this I know that I should invest more then 50% of my money. With the 20% left it's my emergency fund So I can't buy incredibly cheap stocks right now unfortunately. + +I am trying my best to hold on tight and look long term. Anyone else in my position? How are you coping? + +Looking forward to your replies thanks. +Thought this article was brilliant: [When Buying the Dip Doesn’t Work: An Analysis of the Dot-com Crash](https://endlessmetrics.substack.com/p/when-buying-the-dip-doesnt-work-an) + +> The most notorious of these bear markets is, of course, the Great Depression. But another great (and more recent) example to study is the dot-com crash. + +> First off, if you bought at the top, you wouldn’t see a new high on your investment for 16.5 years. And if you held on, you got to experience a -83% drop along the way. + +> (...) + +> Now, imagine you bought the dip! Maybe the market went down -20% into a classic bear market. You buy the dip and what’s the reward? Now you only have to wait 14.2 years and endure a -78% drawdown before seeing a return on your investment. + +> What if you bought the dip after a drop worse than what we had during the COVID crash at -40%? Then you wait 11.8 years to get your money back and have to suffer a further -71% drop. + +> And, if you are a super dip buyer and bought after things fell -70%, you would still have to wait 2.5 years to recover and stomach a -42% drop. + +> Think about that for a second. + +> You bought a -70% dip and you still have to deal with a further crash that is even worse than the COVID crash and lasts about five times as long. + +> See, I’m not trying to rain on the parade of everyone who wants to buy the dip. I think buying things on sale is smart! What I am saying though, is sometimes, a dip is not just a dip. It can be a small part of a much larger crash and those sales suddenly don’t return easy gains in a short period of time. +I’m just trying to get my head around inflation. + +From what I understand, governments regulate inflation using interest rates. If the demand increases for products (perhaps because of better rates of employment), the government will try to counter this by increasing interest rates. If this demand weren’t controlled, the value of money would be worth less, which cause things like rising poverty and economic uncertainty. + +What I don’t understand is, when prices are increased because of demand, surely people would just stop buying and, in turn, the prices would decrease? Why the need for government intervention? + +So this has become more and more relevant as an issue in the last few years. The major cities of the US are hubs for many different industries and therefore drive many people to live or commute there for jobs, among other aspects of city life. There have been complaints of there respective housing markets are pricing out established residents (of middle class and below) and making housing situations quite difficult for others, especially young people just starting their careers. This not only effects the cities themselves but surrounding neighborhoods as well. This has been described to me as primarily a supply/demand problem. Not enough properties and a large population naturally drives up prices. A solution often proposed is the development of affordable housing. Simply put, you are adding to supply by developing properties priced for middle class and poor people. However, when brought to the table, it receives a lot of backlash. This is primarily because of homeowners who perceive such initiatives as driving down their home values. So in addition to the title question: + +* Is it true that additional housing projects will often result in lowering home values across a whole area? And if so, is that damaging economically? +I don't understand why the small, insidious devaluation of the value of my money is a good thing for the economy, especially in an era where interest rates provide returns well below inflation. + +I've heard arguments about it making one nation's currency more competitive to others, but in a world where everyone is doing it, it seems like a race to the bottom. + +I've also heard that it's a sign the economy is growing, but I don't understand exactly why. + +The naive perspective is that monetary policy should keep inflation and deflation near zero, to protect the value of the currency for its holders. + + + +POST EDIT: I know a lot of people say that "it represents a part of a company" and I acknowledge this in the body text. I have asked this question to people in finance, and they have trouble going further into detail. Just "owning a part of a company" doesn't seem to have any benefit. Class C capital stocks(google) don't allow for voting, and if a stock is only beneficial once you have 51% of all, then what is each individual stocks value. I have read on this topic, and many economists offer differing interpretations of what a stocks value represents. My question here is simply, what is the inherent benefit to a stock with no dividends, no voting. Is there any "product value" or is this just something like currency that we believe in? + +Edit title: "If a stock is simply valued by a price we think others will buy it at, what prevents from CEASING to conform to events in reality?" To clarify: An object such as a car has inherent value. When I buy it, I buy it for its intrinsic benefit to me. I can use to to drive, etc. Thus, its price is associated with the product, and the price holds inherent value. If the car has a broken engine, it will have a low price. + +On the other hand, it doesn't seem that stocks hold inherent value. When I buy a stock it doesn't hold any benefit to me. Unlike the car, the stock doesn't benefit me in life. (Yes, some have dividends and if you buy enough you can own a company, but this is largely irrelevant. Practically no one is buying that many stocks, and many stocks don't have dividends.) So here we see a disconnect, the price doesn't seem to reflect a product. The only "value" it holds is the ability to sell it someone else, you price it at what you think someone else will buy it at. Thus, price is not on product, but on perception. + +If price is based on perception, and there is no anchor to reality, then who is to stop prices from becoming unreasonable if just random? I understand this manifests in situations like a housing bubble, but take this example: Let's say a company goes bankrupt. If price is just based on perception, and no anchor to reality, why can't we all just continue to say the price is high and then no one loses out? What's the check on these prices? +Have there ever been examples in modern history ( or before that) that employers lowered working hours per day not because of government legislation but because they thought this would increase there production? If so what are some academic papers or resources worth reading on the issue? +I re-read an old [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/turned-off-from-politics-thats-exactly-what-the-politicians-want/2012/04/20/gIQAffxKWT_story.html) I had bookmarked, which compares political polarization and low voter turnout to a market failure. It seems like an apt comparison, but have economists indeed studied politics in the U.S. in this way? + +The author concludes: + +> Arms races, free riding, tragedies of the commons — these failures in economic markets are well understood. The solutions usually involve some form of government action or regulation. But when similar failures occur in political markets, there are no institutions capable of stepping in and forcing the necessary collaboration or collective action. + +> Government can’t be the solution when it is the problem. + +Is voting really a failure in the market of ideas? Any insight this sub could bring from the point of view of economics would be welcome. +The title may be confusing so let me explain. +I curious as to where the ROOT of money comes from. Or rather how new money is introduced or reintroduced into a society. + + +I'll use a theory I've had in my head as example to help explain. +Currency(paper money) has been founded and as an attempt to introduce it and make it a system, everyone is given 100 dollars to make their wealth off of. + There are 10 people in the society. That makes a 1,000$ in the society. But the problem here is there is ONLY a 1,000$. Let's say hypothetically- Someone achieves that 1,000$ from the rest and they would have 0 dollars leaving him all the money but he would not be able to achieve any more money. He would only have that 1,000$. + +So--- does our society have a set number of money that is constantly circulated from person to person?(Only a 1,000$) Or is the amount increased, decreased, or is what I'm asking something different altogether? +I was in class the other day and we spoke about the lemons problem, and how it wouldn't be likely to arise in the market for real "Lemons" for example. However I still can't get why? +This is a personal anecdotal observation, but I get the feeling from Gen Xers that moving to a different town for work or family was a much more common occurrence, and decisions to move to places was based on economic considerations. Even moving to further suburbs and commuting seems like it was a more common thing. There doesn’t seem to have been a specific expectation about where people wanted to or needed to live before those considerations. + +I know there is a housing supply issue, I’m not denying that. But how much of our current housing problems stem from the fact that many millennials seem to all want to live in major metro areas like New York or San Francisco and have short commutes? How could something like this be measured? +It’s an undeniable fact that in any currency newly printed money will dilute the value of existing currency. When new US dollars created via fractional reserve banking, quantitative easing or any other method, will that affect the purchasing power of countries which hold USD in their reserves? +I've heard both ways, including from the Economist: + +1) Unskilled people cannot in general generate enough tax revenue to offset the costs of providing for them, even in countries with a limited welfare state, unless wages or tax rates are extremely high. This includes not just welfare spending but infrastructure, police, and other costs that scale with population. + +2) Unskilled immigrants, on net, will increase in productivity to such a great extent that they will offset most of their costs to the public budget. The only real negative impact of mass unskilled immigration is a possible slight depression on the wages of unskilled natives, which can be redistributed away. +Hi. Ok so China has reduced a lot of poverty and increased their literacy rate. It has a higher HDI than India. Some folks compare them to show China's outperformance because China and India were both former colonies that started out very poor. In the 1970s, India had a higher GDP per capita. [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-per-capita-pennwt?tab=chart&country=IND\~CHN](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-per-capita-pennwt?tab=chart&country=IND~CHN) [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/literacy-rate-adults?tab=chart&country=IND\~CHN](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/literacy-rate-adults?tab=chart&country=IND~CHN) + +But isn't it unfair because India is a South Asian nation and China is an East Asian nation? Isn't it more accurate to compare China to Taiwan or other South Korea? +Fed increases money supply by printing money and buying bonds.Then after the loan is paid back money supply decreases .I dont understand then how fed increases money supply longterm +I’m trying to role of the legacy of imperialism in shaping the modern world economy. I have a vague understanding of capitalism and imperialism’s relationship, the idea of rich vs poor countries, along with core-periphery relations, the underdevelopment of the African region, but I am finding it difficult to tie these ideas together. + +Please help illuminate my understanding and if possible, point to any journal articles/academic literature that discuss this idea. + +Thanks! +Are open source projects, such as VLC, subject to market forces? + +They're not sold for money, so I would think no, right? + +They're not driven by the profit motive, right? + +Can their behavior be modeled or predicted by economic theory? +Hi everyone, + +I'm a second year econ undergrad and I've been trying to wrap my head around the fiscal theory of price level (just out of pure interest, I'm a big fan of Cochrane and I always hear him talk about it). + +I have found several academic papers that explain its mechanisms but they are all too advanced for me. + +I was wondering if anyone here could give me an 'ELIUG' explanation of what it is and why it is important. + +Thanks in advance! + +Since you just need positive outcome of (marginal revenue - marginal cost) for business to hire someone, it seems "job subsidies" would be more efficient than welfare, no ? Also gets around the minimum wage. +I know nothing about economic dynamics but I wonder this events reaction and results. + +Let's say X country decided to fix the dolar rate at 5 (their own currency equivalent) and announced that they will increase their own currency value periodically untill a dollar is equal to a x. (1 dollar = 1 xcurrency) + +What could be the possible outcome for that currency and country? +So I have been reading a bit on why we central banks generally pursue moderate inflation, and almost none of them seem to stand up to even simple logic. The main argument against perusing a zero net inflation policy seems to be this: + +>You have no incentive to spend now because you know prices are not going up in the future. + +This simply doesn't make any sense. An increases in monetary supply will increase wages AND prices. In fact, that is the actual economic mechanism that causes inflation to happen. Increased demand from the newly increased wages causes person's selling goods or services to increase prices to maximize profits. After a certain amount of time, the new supply of money will disperse thought the economy shouldn't have any nett effect on growth. + +Also, with 0 nett inflation, there is no incentive to *not* spend. If prices are not going down on a good or service, and someone wants to spend money on that good or service, and they have that money, why would someone wait? And to the reverse it is also true, prices aren't going to go up, so using credit to purchase the item is non-beneficial. + +I am asking for either a better explanation of why moderate inflation is good or why my logic is flawed. Thank you in Advance. +What exactly is "Capitalism" anyway? + +And why does it seem like people disagree about the definition so much? + +Should we try to make a point of defining our terms and at least agreeing what words mean before starting to debate? + +It seems like a lot of disagreements I see on the internet actually stem not from fundamental differences of values, but rather from merely having different definitions of words. +Hey all, I'm a layperson with 0 background in economics, but I've been recently wanting to understand it to some extent. I'm interested in politics and tend to consider myself overall pretty informed about social issues and some history but I have almost no knowledge of econ - and although I follow a variety of political people on Twitter who make lots of bold claims about the economy, I have no way of judging if what they're saying has anything to it. My questions are: + +1. The intro to the reading list says "the best introduction to economics is to pick up an introductory textbook" and that there's no substitute. Would I be better served then by just reading a textbook instead of the reading list? +2. If I were to read either a textbook or the reading list or both, what level of knowledge would that get me? 1st year economics? +3. Would reading it only help me learn general theories or would it also teach me about how the economy of, say, the US government, is structured/governed (wrt taxes, trade, etc)? What if I wanted to learn about not the US (like Canada)? Idk if this question makes sense. +4. If my purpose in learning economics is less an interest in the field of economics outright but more in terms of how it pertains to politics, is there a better way to go about it than the reading list? I know that obviously the more I learn the better served I'll be but surely it's not necessary to have an econ degree to form an opinion and engage with others? I lean left but that could be anywhere between neolib to marxist and I don't have enough economic knowledge to determine anything +5. I was already interested in learning some economics but [these](https://www.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/9a3sjh/old_man_yells_at_amazon_cloud/) [two](https://www.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/fp461l/a_6848character_response_to_a_3sentence_tweet/) posts really made me want to pick up a textbook since I understand almost nothing in them. Would I understand them after completing the reading list? + +Thanks for any insight you can give a level 0 noob +I was discussing the Tobin tax with a friend the other day. As a possibility to finance some public spending in our reddit model government. I have some formal economic education, but i'm afraid that i'm not yet qualified to answer this question. Basically, what are the Pros vs Cons of a [Tobin Tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobin_tax) ? +Wanted to see if the people here have any ideas of what we could do, given how often it's been talked about over the past few years here in the United States. + +What do you think would be the best option for us? +[Keynes vs. Hayek Rap Battle Round Two, at 7:24](https://youtu.be/GTQnarzmTOc?t=444) + +​ + +*With political incentives, discretion's a joke* + +*Those dials you're twisting? Just mirrors and smoke* + +​ + +What do these lines mean? EDIT: What is discretion in this context? What are the dials twisted and why is doing that mirrors and smoke? +The question itself is misleading. I know why people do. To invest. But the question is why do they invest in a company? It seems like we no longer care about dividends. Companies get pumped when good news come out. Seems like we are now investing in other people’s opinions rather than the actual company. + +I’m not sure why a company that is doing well drives up a stock these days? Say company ABC just had a great quarter and record sales. Their stock soars after the news. But why? What do these investors get from buying? And what exactly are they even investing in? If the company does not give out dividends or other incentives, then what’s the point? It seems like people are now more investing on the market’s hype. + +It’s like “oh this company had a great quarter. I’m buying because other people are buying and will drive up the price.” And not “oh this company is great. Buy more because they’ll issue dividends and pay out profits”. +This is a bit out there and never going to happen but let's just run with it. + +Medium town (100,000 people). This applies to 40% of everyone living here. + +No strings attached. 100% free market - let people decide what to do with it. + +Measure impact on tax revenues, business revenues, and wages in relation to cost of living; don't focus on the individuals, focus on the town as a whole. + +My hypothesis - GDP grows by 50%, wage growth outpaces inflation and real net gains are made. + + + + + +Milton Friedman said, + +# “I know of no severe depression, in any country or any time, that was not accompanied by a sharp decline in the stock of money, and equally of no sharp decline in the stock of money that was not accompanied by a severe depression.” + +Does this apply to the Great Recession of 2008? +So GBP hit a 40 year low in its exchange rate to USD a few days back. Im from the UK, our economy is struggling and I've been keeping an eye on the currency to see if it depreciates. I'm not expert in just interested. + +Following the news of the 40 year low... the currency got fixed at $1.14 to the £1 (the number reported to be the 40 year low). According to google it then spiked back temporarily to $1.15 on the 18th before dropping again, although other sites seem to have it pegged to 1.14 the whole time. + +Furthermore this currency fix seemed to happen worldwide with a variety of different currencies??? Did something happen that isn't in the mainstream news? Or is this a normal event? + +Tldr; + +Appears there was some sort of global currency fix? Is that normal or something that was just not focussed on by the news? +Is it possible for a supercomputer/ AI under a command economy to replace the price signals of a market economy? + +The supercomputer will allocate resources instead of price signals. The supercomputer will prevent massive shortages and ensure that consumer wants are largely satisfied. + +Is this even possible/ probable? +Pete Navarro is infamous for his fringe economic views and opinions. I'm wondering if it would still be worth it to take this course on Coursera for a general overview of Macroeconomics. +This question is inspired on another post that I saw on here today. + +In my country, The Netherlands, many companies that pay large bonuses but avoid paying taxes got bailed out during the pandemic. This created a situation in which I feel like small businesses and workers alike have to pay for their own economic exploitation, so to speak. These businesses seem to be too important for job creation and GDP growth, while at the same time creating a situation in which a disproportionate burden is put on the shoulders of average citizens. + +I feel like when a company is in this position of economic importance a perverse incentive of risky business practices starts to unravel, because they know their monopsony power in combination with taxpayer bailouts grants them the opportunity to get away with it. I feel like it has become a catch-22, in which no matter what we choose to do as citizens or governments, we're screwed. If we let them topple, a large chunk of the job market implodes. If we bail them out, we incentivise a continued risky behaviour. + +I was wondering what the general views of economists are on this situation? Is it a topic that is often discussed? Moreover, is this catch-22 a correct assertion, and if so: what can be done to stop this feedback loop? +So obviously the stock market needs to include inflation and also include a Risk Premium. But if historically the GDP grows by 2% and the stock market by 8% then that disparity seems huge! + +Is there another factor that I'm not taking into account? Does this disparity change by era or decade? +[I came across a diagram](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/83/OECD_Hierarchy_of_Taxes.png +)(that I wasn't able to find on any OECD site) about a pyramidal hierarchy of taxes from most (top) harmful to least (bottom). + +The least harmful taxes to growth and production according to this diagram are property taxes, then sales taxes, then income taxes and at the tip corporate taxes. + +I was a bit surprised by how high up income taxes were, considering that they are employed by almost every country and are supposedly most progressive. Likewise, I was surprised by how low sales taxes were, considering they are regressive by nature. + +Why does the OECD think income taxes are more damaging to growth than sales taxes? Just how much do income taxes really slow down growth compared to for instance sales or property taxes? + +Would it hence be better to phase out corporate tax and reduce income taxes and instesd raise property/sales taxes? +The pace of technology development and adoption has greatly accelerated over the past 100 years, while at the same time the period for maintaining a monopoly through intellectual property law has also increased. This suggests that IP law is unnecessary and might not be serving it’s initially proposed purpose. + +During most of that period we’ve seen a rapid decline in new business start ups while large corporations have continued to grow larger. This suggest that large corporations not individuals are benefiting the most from current IP law. + +Is income inequality tied to the size of corporations and compensation for top executives? Is IP law facilitating growth of large scale monopolies rather than rewarding individual creativity? + + Should government policy be changed to focused more on small business development and new job creation rather than allowing large corporations to increase profits through government sanctioned monopoly? + +Does the creation of new small businesses benefit the economy more than corporate profits? +I heard a very interesting argument recently that refutes this assertion. The argument goes like this: in previous decades, people in the third world who lived off their land and still used the barter system were not included as part of the “money system”, and therefore were counted as having no income. As corporations and governments such as China began buying up land and forcing people off their farms and into big cities, they began to be counted as part of the system. So even if you made a dollar a day, it was considered an improvement and that’s how the myth of rising global standards of living started. I’m not sure how accurate this is. Any thoughts? +Is there any kind of theory that when the United States went off the gold standard in 1971 it totally changed how the Fed can regulate recessions thereby making much of the economic history before 1971 somewhat moot? + +Here is my thinking: + +The 1970-early 1980s were super crazy with high inflation. Even though we got off the gold standard in 71 it was during a cycle of inflation that wasn't broken until Volcker raised interest rates sky high which also brought on the last "old school" recession. + +From that point on we have only had three recessions: + +* 1990 which lasted 8 months +* 2000 which lasted 8 months +* 2007-2009 Great Recession which lasted 1 year 6 months + +Previous to this (the 1981-82 recession and earlier) the longest time between recessions was the 8 years, 10 months from the 1960-61 recession to the 1969-70 recession. Every other time period between recessions was around 1-4 years. (I start the timeline at the GD) + +Is it possible that due to getting off the gold standard and freeing what the Fed can do to regulate recessions, the length of time between recessions will be of the more recent longer lengths (6-10 years) than the shorter time periods (1-4 years)? + + +Essentially title. I would think that planned obsolescence is a problem primarily caused by a lack of sufficient market competition, but I'm guessing there's more to the story than just that. +are models supposed to just be considered isomorphic to the real world? + +Im really not trying to debate or knock down models or anything, I am just trying to understand their importance. But sometimes it seems like it isnt different from normal reasoning. comparative statics are usually ambiguous in sign depending on properties of preferences or technology, and dont really tell anything about magnitude of the change, right? so in that sense isnt something that can potentially be logical deduced without a model? +I'm specifically looking at nations like Timor Leste, PNG, Cambodia, African nations, Yemen... how do they grow beyond their relatively low economic performance? Singapore's path was not unique but certainly hard to repeat on a larger scale. +So we know that if a company continuously spends more revenue than it receives then the company eventually is forced to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy. + +So we also know that a country cannot file Chapter 11. Instead, it enters a crisis. many countries, specifically Latin American, have obviously encountered this. In which case they stopped paying back their debt, they subsequently stopped finding a financier, and were forced to print more money. + +My question is why does this not happen to the US? In 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 - the US spent more than it received. How can US get away with this when no other country/corporation/etc can? +I would like to earn a degree in Economics but, I am unsure whether I would be better going in to do it Full-time or Part-time. Would it be better to do one or the other? +In discussions of automation I always hear that it’ll be okay because we’re shifting to a knowledge economy with more high-skilled jobs. This may well be true for rich countries that already have extensive knowledge economies, but what about nations like Bangladesh or Mexico that still rely heavily on manufacturing? I’m not an economist (which is why I’m asking here), but to me it seems likely that they’ll be devastated by premature deindustrialization as manufacturing shifts back to countries with more high-tech infrastructure. Is this the case? And if so, why doesn’t it come up in discussions of automation? +http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2013/06/gardiner-means-on-administered-prices.html + +> “... the actual behavior of administration-dominated prices … tends to differ so sharply from the behaviour to be expected from classical theory as to challenge the basic conclusions of that theory. However well the theory may apply to market-dominated prices, it would not seem to apply to the bulk of the administration-dominated prices in the sample or to that part of the industrial world which they typify. Until economic theory can explain and take into account the implications of this nonclassical behavior of administered prices, it provides a poor basis for public policy. The challenge which administered prices make to classical economics is as fundamental as that made by the quantum to classical physics.” (Means 1972: 304). +Could this be an alternative way of doing charity? Since there is a potential gain in money which can be reinvested, I was thinking it could be very effective. But I don't know so much about economics, so I would like the input of experts on this +I’m not asking you to contest Modern Monetary Theory here, I’m asking this question under the assumption that you agree with it. + +Under MMT, the assumption is that countries with foreign denominated debt are at a disadvantage compared to countries with domestic debt. The reason being is that domestic debt can be controlled better with central banking policies whereas foreign denominated debt cannot. + +So my question then is, assuming this is true, why do countries do it? Why do countries take on foreign debt they often cannot pay, instead of building up their own monetary sovereignty? + +I’m thinking of countries like Argentina, Lebanon, etc... + +If the answer can stay within the economy framework that would be greatly appreciated. That is why I’m asking this in an economy forum after all. I’m not particularly interested in the political arguments like ‘oh well the politicians of these countries are simply dumb that’s the main reason why.’ + +Thanks in advance. + +All the best. +In heteroscedasticity tests, we test the relation between squared standard errors and the variables of the model +Why does it have to be squared ? +If anyone has an answer, please, it will be super helpful +Thank you ! +Had this thought after seeing another "Social Security is doooomed!" article. Are the large financial institutions facing any stress or problems from the large number of incoming retirees? As they begin pulling money out without supplementing it (except via intrest I guess) or if it gets pulled out entirely on death, are the companies running these in any danger? + +I can't recall anyone in the doom and gloom Social Security and LoLPensions articles talking about the same stressors with regards to 401ks and similar retirement plans. +Could a single US State be able to effectively replace it's sales and income taxes with a VAT? How would it handle goods from out of State? Or local goods sold out of State? Would it need some kind of border adjustment? +My professor asked us to make a presentation about business expansion. I am trying to know which one is bigger and more powerful: Southeastern Asia or Middle East. + +Thanks! +Sorry if this is a weird question.. + +In the ISLM model, we assume prices are sticky.. right? + +I probably have some misconceptions about the current US economy, but I've heard people say there is virtually no reported inflation. + +So if theres no inflation.. prices aren't rising, therefore the ISLM model would hold true, correct? + +That would essentially mean we should keep pumping money into government funded projects (although there is the drawback of crowding out) to stimulate output.. + +So this is essential what the "Green New Deal" is aiming to do, right? Introduce a large stimulus.. + +I'm just an econ student trying to apply what is going on in real life to what I've been learning.. So please excuse any flaws in my understanding. +Please correct me in any mistakes. + +*ahem* The difference between the selling price and the cost of production varies and depends on the market. If the surplus value varies, it means that the value added by labor varies according to the subjectivity of the market. This means it is does not exist. It's not real. + +I know that what actually varies is not labor but "socially necessary labor" and use value determines it retroactively, but what validates your product is society buying it so uh + +Is that where this ends? +I don't know much about econ. But it seems like people widely dismiss the 2008 bailout of companies that were "too big to fail" as as much bunk as trickle down economics. Ie. that while in specific circumstances, there might be some truth about the mechnism being described, it doesn't have the effect on quality of life for them that you might expect. + +Is that true? Or would we really be worse off now if some of those industries and people had been allowed to go bankrupt? + +Thanks, I hope there is an unbiased political answer to this because it seems hard to get fully trustworthy answers +Is it good for a country if it legitimately has no debt? I was wondering this question in the wake of the US debt and I thought whether a country debt-free is a country would a blessing. +In America at least, capital gains are taxed at a significantly lower rate than income. Speaking as a layman, my understanding is that 'going public' is beneficial to the company as a way of raising new capital at large scale. Speaking more generally though, is there a collective or public good inherent to encouraging investment in publicly held corporations? Said another way, does the tax incentive to hold wealth in stocks vs. other investments/savings vehicles have an economic rationale or is it more political, i.e. driven by influence from investment banks? +If we go by basic supply and demand of labor force, increasing minimum wage increases unemployment. How come increasing minimum wage in a monoposny does the opposite (instead increasing employment)? + +P.S. ELI5 = Explain Like I'm Five, explain in a simple and easy to understand manner as much as possible +I just want to check my understanding of what people mean when they say have have equity. + +So equity financing is when you for example sell company shares for money. This financing is obtained by utilizing the equity we own and turning it into cash. Company shares are an asset that's usually called by equity, because: 1. It's value is not certain; or 2. It's value can decrease from the original; If the value of a share decreased, that could result in a loss to the buyer. Specifically the loss from first buying the share, and then selling it at a lower price. + +Or maybe the reason I presented is wrong. What truly characterizes an asset as equity is that there is some associated negative-value to it, maybe you call this a liability. An example of assets that have some associated truly negative cost would be: 1. The selling of a put option. 2. A house. You need to pay property taxes, if the house catches on fire you might have to pay to fix your and others' houses. 3. A dog, it needs food, you might need to pay a vet visit. 4. A "loan", since at the end it represents a net loss. \ According to this description a share wouldn't be equity would it? Even + +Am I making a distinction where there isn't one? + +Also would a dog truly be called equity? Maybe if you buy it with the intent of resale. If you buy with no intention of selling it, is it wrong to call it equity? Is it more accurate to call it a liability? +The consensus seems to be that rent control can decrease rent in the short-term, but creates a shortage of housing supply over the long-term. What kind of policies can we pursue that would reduce the cost of rent? + +(Side question: do property taxes lead to increased rent?) +I just see money circulating from the accountant to the government, back in welfare and so on and so forth. I don't see expansion unless these 'services' service foreign businesses. + +Everyones going to a service economy in the developed work I just don't quite understand. My country imports way more than it exports. Is the accountant offering a tax return as a service in a service economy gonna pay for it? +Populist often say that only Germany benefits from using euro and Italian economy suffering because of using euro. How does leaving from eurozone affects Italian economy and export? +One of the most mind-blowing concepts of economics in my opinion is “comparative advantage”. +But what happens when one of the companies is creating an unused surplus of widgets? +For example, let’s have one country called “Computer” and one called “Shoes”. +Let’s say Computer has created computers for every person on Earth but continues making them because they are considered more valuable than making the shoes that Shoes manufactures. +Does Computer start making shoes too in this situation if there is ample supply? +Or would Computer simply become idle or find another product to manufacture due to the fact that if computers are not needed, they have no value? +For the country of India, their currency [is under-valued by 73%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) according to Wikipedia and these stats on India's PPP and Nominal GDP. However, upon observation, it appears that ALL poor nations seem to have an under-valued currency! + +This implies that all poor nations have a devalued currency, and they've not been able to get a fair profit from their exports. Instead, their currency was either devalued by their own policies or through market forces, and this has been bad for their IMPORTS. It seems that this policy sets up some perverted economic dependency in that the poorer nation with the devalued currency must sell its goods and services for cheap, and in return, they're not able to enjoy imports from countries with higher GDP levels. + + + +I have a feeling I should be checking out books on economic history, but I don't know where to start. Also, could you clarify your own school of thought (you wouldn't dissuade me from pursuing your recommendations, but you would give me some context as to what I should expect). +My understanding of monetary easing is that lending is stimulated by lowering the overnight lending rate. It becomes easier and more profitable for institutions to borrow and invest. Money enters circulation. But in order to use this tool again, the interest rate needs to increase and institutions need to be weaned off of a low overnight lending rate. Money gets taken out of circulation. + +The Fed largely dealt with the potential credit crunch from the Great Recession by lowering interest rates. They have since raised it only for a short while and lowered it again. Throughout that time, lending has been incentivized and world debt and corporate debt have shot up. Credit represents a much larger portion of America's economy. + +The Fed Funds Rate is between 1.5-1.75%. It's been said that a drop of around 5% is usually needed to stimulate the economy in times of recession. There has been talk of an eventual negative interest rate. + +I had an alcoholic friend who once told me that the best cure for a hangover is to get drunk. + +How is the Fed's position not an analog for such an addict's behavior? Doesn't a negative interest rate imply giving institutions a profit by exercising the privilege of borrowing free money? Who ultimately pays for the negative bit? Is the perceived health of the current economy bought on credit and dependant on low-interest rates? +The bank takes a lump sum, lends it to me, and I give them the right to fixed monthly mortgage payments. The bank then sells this fixed monthly payment to someone else and receives another lump sum. + +Why does the bank profit from doing this? It seems like the bank is converting a lump sum into an annuity and then back again. Why does it end up bigger than before? +I've been pointed to [a blog post](http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/05/11/fiscal-impact-of-whites-blacks-and-hispanics/) which makes some pretty bold (and politically-charged) claims about the fiscal impact of the the average black, white and hispanic American - and concludes that there is a huge difference. The method seems kind of dubious to me - particularly the way different data are being mashed together and missing data is being calculated - but I'd love some help in checking the numbers and methodology as my economics game isn't strong. + +Thanks in advance if anyone is up for taking a look. +So I have read a bit recently about Bernake's theory that [we are - or were - in a period where savings excited desired investment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_saving_glut?wprov=sfla1). Typically, its thought that higher savings rates increase long run growth. So I have a couple questions. + +- Was he accurate? What are the opinions and literature in the economic community around this? +- If so, does this effect persist presently? +Sorry, I know this is probably the millionth time this has been asked on this forum but it’s just something that I’m more curious about than before because I’ve recently learned that the minimum wage in the 1960s was around (an inflation adjusted) $15 which seems to bolster the ongoing argument that minimum wage should be raised to $15. It seems like the main arguments against doing so are: +A. It would make the bottom rung employees of a company virtually unemployable as they’d have to be paid an amount greater than the value they’re adding to the company. +B. Companies would just cut the hours of these employees accordingly in order to occur no additional expense for the company. + +How could this be done though? If the minimum wage were raised, it’s not like McDonald’s could fire all of its bottom rung employees or even reduce their hours without losing sales which seems like McDonald’s would have no choice but to pay its bottom rung employees a higher wage (without reducing/terminating their hours worked). + +This isn’t a political statement – I’m not trying to hint at something – I actually have no idea what would happen if this were to be done. I’d just like to hear some opinions is all. + +Also, is this (raising the minimum wage) what Bernie Sanders meant when he said that he wants employees to “share in the profits” of huge corporations or was he referring to something else – like for them to literally get a bonus in the years when the company they work for is more profitable? + +Thanks + +I remember lots of articles and open letters and general hand wringing in late 2012 about how the fiscal cliff was gonna doom the economy. + +What happened to those? I don't remember a recession in 2013. They passed some legislation eventually, but the overall fiscal deficit was lower than the trend before, wasn't it? +Apologies if this is an ignorant question. I was talking with some other people about the effect of the US pulling out of China completely. Now, obviously it would be bad for the US economy, but I’m wondering *how bad*. Are we taking Great Depression levels, or worse? + +How would US companies cope? How long would it take before manufacturing could be done elsewhere at the same levels? How many would be able to survive such a drastic change? My understanding is that the largest companies have large cash reserves and could eat a period of low income. But most do not and would begin laying workers off. +So after reading a study from the Federal Reserve of Minnesota, I had an interesting thought. It showed that in a world without Medicaid and medicare, wages would go up 11% and capital per capita also goes up. This of course comes with the negatives of higher healthcare cost on the previous Medicare beneficiaries. If we gave out a “healthcare card” which gave the bottom 10% around 4k a year, and the rest of the bottom 80% around 2k a year. This can only be spent on health services or insurance. This would also advocate for major tax cuts on the bottom two/three tax brackets. From wage increases, lower taxes, and healthcare cards wouldn’t this offset the losses and benefit more people? +Hey, guys, I was having a discussion with my friends about employment and they told me even if you get a job with a degree that has nothing to do with that job you are more equipped to ask for a raise. + +For example, I have a friend who currently works in sales at a moving company. She is currently pursuing a degree in criminal justice. Her degree does not give her any useful skills to be better at her job. She says the reason why she could ask for a pay raise is that getting a degree and finishing it shows that she is committed. + +I think this reasoning is flawed. + +Any thoughts. + + +I (18 NB) have started reading Keynes general theory, and found myself not knowing most of what he’s talking about, and am sure I need to have pre-knowledge about stuff I haven’t encountered in my IB Economics. What should I do? Any tips would be welcomed. Thanks! +I heard Ray Dalio mention in a interview that negative rates are in effect a tax. I read up on this but don't make the connection, can someone explain? Thanks. +So is Econ Ph.D. programs designed for students interested in fields other than Finance? I am not sure which one shoul d be my goal to apply to, Say I am interested in Financial economics, is that means I should only apply to Finance programs? + +&#x200B; + +Thanks for your insights! + + +I have a ton of friends and finance and all I hear about the excuses of why all these things in the market work really squirrely is they need to have liquidity for healthy markets but when I dig Down into it it just seems like they've eliminated price discovery Am I wrong? +Bitcointalk discussion: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=333824.msg3581480#msg3581480 + +Hearn posted the following message to the legal section of the members-only foundation forum: https://bitcoinfoundation.org/forum/index.php?/topic/505-coin-tracking/ If you're not a member, you don't have access. I obtained this with the help of a foundation member who asked to remain private. + +He's promoted blacklists before, but Hearn is now a Bitcoin Foundation insider and as Chair of the Foundations Law & Policy committee he is pushing the Foundation to adopt policies approving the idea of blacklisting coins. I also find it darkly amusing that he's now decided to call the idea "redlists", perhaps he has learned a thing or two about PR in the past few months. + +All Bitcoin investors need to make it loud and clear that attacking the decentralization and fungibility of our coins is unacceptable. We need to demand that Hearn disclose any and all involvement with the Coin Validation startup. We need to demand that the Foundation make a clear statement that they do not and will not support blacklists. We need to demand that the Foundation support and will continue to support technologies such as CoinJoin and CoinSwap to ensure all Bitcoin owners can transact without revealing private financial information. + +Anything less is unacceptable. Remember that the value of your Bitcoins depends on you being able to spend them. + +> I would like to start a discussion and brainstorming session on the topic of coin tracking/tainting or as I will call it here, "redlisting". Specifically, what I mean is something like this: +> +> Consider an output that is involved with some kind of crime, like a theft or extortion. A "redlist" is an automatically maintained list of outputs derived from that output, along with some description of why the coins are being tracked. When you receive funds that inherit the redlisting, your wallet client would highlight this in the user interface. Some basic information about why the coins are on the redlist would be presented. You can still spend or use these coins as normal, the highlight is only informational. To clear it, you can contact the operator of the list and say, hello, here I am, I am innocent and if anyone wants to follow up and talk to me, here's how. Then the outputs are unmarked from that point onwards. For instance, this process could be automated and also built into the wallet. +> +> I have previously elaborated on such a scheme in more detail here, along with a description of how you can avoid the redlist operator learning anything about the list's users, like who is looking up an output or who found a match. +> +> Lately I was thinking about this in the context of CryptoLocker, which seems like it has the potential to seriously damage Bitcoin's reputation. The drug war is one thing - the politics of that are very complex. Extortion is something else entirely. At the moment apparently most people are paying the ransom with Green Dot MoneyPak, but it seems likely that future iterations will only accept Bitcoin. +> +> Specifically, threads like this one concern me a lot. Summary: a little old lady was trying to buy bitcoins via the Canada ATM because she got a CryptoLocker infection. She has no clue what Bitcoin is beyond the fact that she needed some and didn't know what to do. +> +> The risk/reward ratio for this kind of ransomware seems wildly out of proportion - Tor+Bitcoin together mean it takes huge effort to find the perpetrators and the difficulty of creating such a virus is very low. Also, the amount of money being made can be estimated from the block chain, and it's quite large. So it seems likely that even if law enforcement is able to take down the current CryptoLocker operation, more will appear in its place. +> +>I don't have any particular opinion on what we should talk about. I'm aware of the arguments for and against such a scheme. I'm interested in new insights or thoughts. You can review the bitcointalk thread on decentralised crime fighting to get a feel for what has already been said. +> +> I think this is a topic on which the Foundation should eventually arrive +at a coherent policy for. Of course I know that won't be easy. +> -Mike Hearn +Need to keep it fairly high level, some people won't know much about trading, some won't know much about technology. Only needs to be about 20 minutes though, any suggestions? + +Thanks! +I have recently made an algo for MT5 that I back tested with the strategy tester on 5 years of data (2015 Jan 1st -2020 Jan 1st) with every tick based on real ticks model, IC markets live server data. The results are: + +* 258% profit +* max DD of 14.87% +* made 24951 trades in total +* profit factor of 1.1 and expected payoff of 1.04 +* back test data was 100% from the strategy tester + + +This all seems too good to be true, so does anyone here have any insights on what could possibly go wrong that could alter my results when I test this with real money? Thanks! +In order to test a few different FOREX stop-loss strategies, does-it make sense to do this: + +* simulate a (geometric) brownian motion + +* randomly open a new position each ~ 1 hour + +* let the stop-loss strategy choose when to close position + +* do this simulation ~ 10000 times, and see how the stop-loss strategy performs. + +**Does it make sense to test such things on computer-generated brownian motion, instead of only historical data?** + +Do you sometimes use brownian motion to test your strategies? +Just curious on other peoples ratios. Ive just launched an algorithm that trades forex and it has only a 38% win ratio, however has been quite profitable so far. +How do you know when a strategy has stopped working? How do you distinguish between a normal drawdown or losing streak from the behavior of a broken system? + +Last Friday morning I was on a boring 3 hour zoom conference and decided to multi-task with some day trading. I saw Tesla at 2290 and thought I'd sell a 2235 put option expiring the same day and collect an easy $1400... I didn't think there was any it would close at 2213 and now I own \~$225K worth of Telsa. + +Fidelity won't let me trade it until tomorrow. + +Maybe hold? + +UPDATE: Sold 80% of the position and up net $16.2K on the blooper. Here is a screenshot of the entry transactions - entry on Friday and the exit today: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ik5ur8/unintentional\_owner\_of\_225k\_worth\_of\_tesla\_proof/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ik5ur8/unintentional_owner_of_225k_worth_of_tesla_proof/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +I should have held! +I was lucky enough to join WSB in November, saw the first GameStop DD around there and it started to pickup steam in December. I bought x shares at around 17$. Held for 3 days and sold. A week later while I was at my minimum wage job I decided to see what was up with GameStop. Boom 30$ a share. Dang it I missed the squeeze. Next day 38$. Woah maybe not... + +Bought some calls and managed to hit xx,xxx$ in my account within one day. Bought some 60 calls (weeklie) on a monday, by Thursday we were at 41$ a share. I had 81 60 calls and I was down to xxx$ in my account. I sold half of my calls on Thursday before market close for 5$ each. Next morning we started climbing a bit and my calls were worth 20$. I sold half again. Then half at 30. I now had 5 calls and they were each worth 1700$. I missed out on 137k because I sold my calls. Too risky, going from xx,xxx$ to xxx$ and back to xxxx$ was emotionally challenging to say the least. + +Since then, I’ve had days were ive gained 3xx,xxx$ and two consecutive days of 1xx,xxx$ losses. I hit a high of 7xx,xxx$ and didn’t flinch in March. + +Only one of my parents knows about my account and they’re unemployed. They told me not to sell. 7xx,xxx$ is nice, but means nothing in the grand scheme. Cut that in half because of taxes and now it’s not so much to live off of, certainly can’t retire on that or support my family for a long period of time. + +If you have x shares you matter. If you have half a share you matter. Also can’t forget about the xx middle child’s either. You all matter. + + +I work somewhere that I can get tipped, believe it or not, the people who tip the most, BUY THE LEAST. The rich tip the least and buy the most. + +Apes live in a country where the poor support eachother and the rich try to take what little we have. + + +Apes have a once in a MILLENNIUM opportunity to flip the script, but it won’t matter if we simply replace the rich now. + + +Apes need to invest in their communities and ensure that nobody is left behind. + + +It’s not a coincidence that the rich gained 3.7 trillion in a pandemic while the public lost 3.7 trillion... + + +Selling at 10k a share won’t make a dent in the pockets of the institutions we are up against. They have the money to pay us. 10 million MINIMUM. + +I will hold for every single one of you, and for those who can’t be a part of this movement because they don’t have the funds, or the means to educate themselves about GameStop. + +Edit: Hedge funds if you’re reading this, please fuck your wife immediately. Pretty soon she’ll be gone... + +#I believe that you will too. +My net worth since joining this sub is down to $7, and in Chicago there's no way to get a pack of cigarettes for that price. I haven't smoked in a week now, and I feel great! So thank you all very much! +This is hard to take guys. + +I mean I know the old “only invest what you can afford to lose” line is good at these times but it’s sore when you’re losing money. Not sure how much more of this I can take. + +It will be Years and years before another bull run and we may never see $10k again. I’m considering cutting my losses and just getting away from this Crypto depression. + +Update: Sold all my coins. Bye. I believed in Bitcoin and Babb but Crypto is never coming back. Who is going to invest after seeing what the market can do to people this year. I’m done. Thanks and good bye. +I think a lot of SSers had grown accustomed to Friday night tweets from RC with the occasional varied day of the week thrown in for good measure. I know I had. + +Why the silence now?? All I can say to that is silence now because something is about to happen. + +WORK tweets with LABOR day coming up. Twenty week and forty week sonogram tweets referenced with again LABOR day coming up. + +I always remind myself with the July 28th tweet at 8:51 PM “The best time to be alive in human history is now”. Such an epic tweet. +> It would be difficult to overstate how important this is to Bitcoin, yet it's often underestimated because the situation is so bizarre that if it were a novel it would get panned for being too unbelievable. +> +> A conman who can't even program and muddles even the basics of Bitcoin tech started claiming he created Bitcoin to try to get out of trouble after he engaged in long running multi-million dollar tax fraud, which so far ended in a police raid on his home and office where he successfully evaded the police and fled the country. +> +> On several occasions he's claimed he would provide "proof" of his claims, but the proof he provides just gets proved to be forgeries. At one juncture he was ordered to provide a list of specific Bitcoin that he owns to a court and when it was made public parties controlling thousands of Bitcoin from his list immediately showed up signing messages calling him a fraud. Even his mother called out his pathological lying. +> +> You'd think that would be the end of it--- but no, the tax fraud set off an improbable series of forced moves as he then needed to repay the tax authority to get them off his trail so in order to get millions of dollars in loans he claimed that he had possession of 1.1 million bitcoins locked in a trust controlled by a "bonded courier" that would release them to him on a particular date (think of that scene at the end of Back to the Future 2). Unfortunately, there are plenty of technically unsophisticated but wealthy people out there who can be tricked into ignoring even the most conclusive technical evidence of fraud. +> +> When the bonded courier didn't show (surprise surprise), Mr. Wright needed a new excuse and started claiming that his coins were stolen in an oceans 11 style high tech break in of his home to plant a "wireless pineapple" to hack his computers. He claims, conveniently, to have erased the computers afterwards so he has is no evidence of these their theft. +> +> Now you might be thinking-- all this sounds tragic for his victims and their families but why should it concern me? And indeed, for a long time it didn't and so almost anyone of any competence just ignored him. Unfortunately, this gave him significant control of the media narrative through constant events, press releases, and bought and paid for outlets. To really lock it in he began filing lawsuits against journalists and community members that countered his facially false claims chilling criticism. The world has been split into two groups: Ones that don't know any better and will repeat his claims with minimal skepticism and people who know that they don't want to go anywhere near it. As a result the first group sets the public narrative. +> +> With so much coverage treating him seriously (often saying, at most, that his claims are "disputed by some" rather than laughable and thoroughly disproved) and tens of millions in funding from his victims-- allowing him to essentially monopolize a whole lawfirm-- the courts have taken him seriously too. So although his court cases are laughable and doomed, he's able to inflict millions of dollars in legal fees on his victims even when they ultimately win, and in some cases damaging them financially so thoroughly that they're unable to effectively fight back. He's been directing these lawsuits at Bitcoin community members, advocates, and journalists, and more recently Bitcoin developers and former developers and exchanges. +> +> His vexatious litigation has made the Bitcoin Whitepaper unavailable to people in the UK from the original download site, in fact when you search for it in the UK you get a recent forgery by Mr. Wright with his name on it-- I once had a rather confused conversation with a journalist that couldn't understand why *anyone* would think Wright didn't created Bitcoin, finally they said his name was on the whitepaper and I understood what had happened. It's also caused Bitcoin Core to be unavailable from bitcoin.org to anyone in the UK. +> +> To substantiate his pineapple hack claims he's filed a lawsuit against a dozen (active and former, but increasingly former) Bitcoin developers demanding they aid him in producing and distributing version of Bitcoin with a cryptographic backdoor which will allow him to seize coins he's claimed to have lost (but obviously never owned) or otherwise pay him billions of dollars in damages. To anyone with expertise in Bitcoin it's obvious why the demand can't work: Users simply wouldn't choose to run such a version and would run alternatives or stay on old versions. But the courts aren't Bitcoin experts and seem happy to provisionally take Wright's word for it that it would work and not immediately dismiss the case on the basis of its obvious impossibility. +> +> He's also supposedly filed a second lawsuit against an overlapping and somewhat larger set of developers for, apparently, failing to do his bidding more generally. That's not even getting into the substantial amount of harassment and threats (including publishing a statement that he'd shoot us in the back of the head if he could get away with it) outside of the legal system. His actions have contributed to at least four of some of the most prolific and longest standing developers discontinuing or substantially curtailing their involvement with Bitcoin. (and I'm a target of both of these cases.) +> +> And of course, Wright and his conspirators are actively lobby governments, schmoozing heads of state. +> +> When people talk about Bitcoin being robust and safe from attack this isn't some magical property that exists in a vacuum-- part of what makes it strong is its community. It's protected because its community follows their self-interest and acts to protect it. Sometimes that protection comes in the form of developers engineering excellent security technology, but sometimes what's needed is political, public relations, or legal aid. All the amazing technology in the world can't help if people don't get access to it, don't make use of it because they've been bamboozled out of it, or have to take unreasonable risks to work to maintain it. +> +> The deck is stacked enormously against hodl and Wright's other targets: Wright's laughable claims across multiple countries should have been possible to discharge in a summary judgement, limiting the legal costs to merely hundreds of thousands instead of millions-- but since he has nothing to lose, he'll tell whatever lies are required to keep the litigation going for as long as possible. And with Wright burying his opponents under a hundred of thousands of documents (a substantial percentage of which are forgeries) he easily can drive trial costs into the millions or tens of millions of dollars. It creates a situation where the most rational course of action in court is arguably to just let him win as fast as possible in order to minimize cost, since you'd come out better that way then seeing it through and winning. At best Wright's targets can hope to minimize the damages they suffer, while Wright and his conspirators expect to profit handsomely from their scheme, justifying extensive spending on lobbying and press manipulation while the opposition has been almost exclusively reactive except for a few community members posting angry tweets. +> +> Wright's fraud is an attack on Bitcoin. Not a conjectural or hypothetical attack but a real one that has already done significant damage. I'm confident that this is an attack Bitcoin will survive because I'm confident that when people will stand up to fight for it and not wait forever for it to be solved by the invisible hand without realizing that each of us is the invisible hand. Wait for him to go away has been tried and it just allowed the situation to fester. +> +> We're all extremely fortunate that hodl has been able to hold out to this point and continue to confront Wright's fraudulent claims directly rather than taking one of several very understandable alternative path would minimize his cost but leave the fraud substantially unchallenged. It's an effort that deserves our support. +> +> But helping hodl continue his fight is merely necessary, it's not sufficient: It's unlikely that Wright will be stopped by even a complete victory by Hodl, only slowed by it. At this point it seems likely that the only thing that will trigger the end of it is the start of criminal prosecution. That isn't a long shot either: Last we heard the Australian criminal case over his tax fraud is still ongoing but prosecutors tend to act slowly, only when they're absolutely sure of a win especially absent political pressure or a prospect of funds recovery. But in spite of the vastness of the Bitcoin, our community doesn't appear to be that well politically connected. But not that well isn't not at all: There are some of us that know people with the power to do something here or have it themselves. It's time to start some of those conversations. + +https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ws8wfd/starting_september_12th_in_oslo_norway_hodlonaut/ikxqxoo/ +Hey all, + +Looking for some help. I have just stepped into my first graduate role and am on 69k and I am looking at sponsoring a child overseas. Does anyone know which services may be the cheapest (I know this sounds bad but i want to sponsor a couple instead of just one) + +Thanks! +Hi all, looking for advice ! I'm employed full time here in NSW. I WFH 3 days/from office 2 days. There's no logistical reason for us to go into the office other than team building. Just had an appraisal and received very good feedback from managers. + +My mum lives in Europe and she's getting on and I'm her only child. I really feel I should be there to help her with her increasing health issues, to provide support, and just to be with her. I also have an EU passport. + +I'm planning on how to get work to let me work remotely from EU for 4-6 months. So far my argument would be based on: +\-- The time difference means they would essentially get two shifts a day, with me working overnight and getting work back to the team ready for when they start the Aussie work day +\-- I would start work EU time 8am / AEST time 4pm, meaning there would be around 2 hours of overlap for meetings, etc +\-- I will come back as my dad lives here, my life is here, etc. I realise this final point sounds a little vague so looking to make it sound a little firmer... + +Any advice for how to make this as convincing as possible would be much appreciated! I don't want to lose the job as I enjoy it, appreciate my colleagues and am relatively good at what I do. +Correction .52 sold for 2500 + + + +Why is this not more of a big deal? That is literal proof of fraud and manipulation with a complicit structure 🤯 someone posted a trust me bro that post split we are at 5k a share yet we see 33 and change per share. Am i missing something or was it a shitpost ? + +Edit: post stated transaction was 1/28/2021 I believe @market open + +Post in comments +Call your broker to make sure that they are not loaning your shares, and that you are not on margin, and also REMOVE any stop losses. + +A lot of brokers auto-loan your shares, especially if you are buying on margin/using a margin account. + +(Robbinghoods is margin even when it says it isn't Fuck, RH). + +\*if you haven't yet... transfer out of RH\* + +&#x200B; + +Oh yeah, and Buy & HODL. + +&#x200B; + +This may seem like financial advice, but trust me when I tell you it isn't. I once snorted a gobstoppper up my nose and now I see SMURPLE. +Im asking because i know when it comes down the premium will fall, should i sell now and buy back when it falls back to normal, or if i expect the price to continue rising, should i hold? + +whats the mathematically correct choice? +I have created a diff online that shows the differences between the old and new version of the document: + +[https://www.textcompare.org/?id=60c9091ee35d6d0015e7abee](https://www.textcompare.org/?id=60c9091ee35d6d0015e7abee) + +Indeed many of the changes are merely formatting and moving some things like definitions to ancillary documents. + +~~Some things like this caught my eye:~~ + +https://preview.redd.it/iwkfqtaomh571.png?width=1026&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf4bf726b94e8468a2eab9bab282a303e09bc9ba + +~~I am not sure if this was present somewhere in the previous document, but it looks like they can just have private agreements outside of the DTC and they don't have to comply with the DTC? Is this~~ **~~the~~** ~~loophole?~~ + +EDIT: I managed to find a copy of the original PDF. Indeed that portion was included as well, but slightly out of order. Take a look through the diff and see if you can spot any other differences and I'll cross reference them back to the original. + +[April 1 2021 PDF](https://zenodo.org/record/4718936) (NO AFFILIATION WITH THIS SITE, USE AT YOUR OWN RISK) +[June 15, 2021 PDF](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-005.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 2: Found this interesting and somewhat truthful: + +>The proposed rule change was originally filed with the Commission in April 2021 and posted to the website of DTC’s parent company, The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (“DTCC”). However, because the filing did not satisfy a regulatory formatting requirement, the Commission had to reject the filing and it was subsequently removed from the DTCC website. In the time it has taken for DTC to refile the proposal, DTC has received several written comments, which, again, were filed as an Exhibit 2 to the proposal. Although DTC understands those comments to be generally supportive of the proposed changes, based on DTC’s review of each of the comments, DTC believes there is a general misunderstanding of the purpose of this proposed rule change. +> +>For the sake of clarity, and as more fully described above, this proposed rule change will not alter DTC’s current practices. Rather, it will merely clarify how securities Pledged through DTC are recorded in DTC’s system. More specifically, and as more fully described above, the Settlement Guide currently states that Securities Pledged through DTC are held in an account of the Pledgee. However, in practice, the Securities remain in the Pledgor’s account but are marked as Pledged. This is the existing practice today and will not change. Rather, the proposed change will clarify the text of the Settlement Guide to better reflect the current practice. The change will not affect the legal rights or obligations of the parties involved in the pledge. DTC will notify the Commission of any additional written comments received by DTC. + +&#x200B; +For context, I'm 37, $2.8M NW, $550k pre-tax income, aiming to fatFIRE, or at least FIRE, some time 4+ years from now. + +&#x200B; + +Most of my life I've avoided paying people to do things that I can do myself; this includes cleaning the house (save $100 every 2 weeks), doing yardwork (save $100 / month?), cleaning our car (save $30), and even performing major plumbing work (save $11k) or medium plumbing work (save $1500). I grew up in a squarely middle-class house where my dad was an engineer who did everything himself. Growing up I thought paying people to do these things was for "rich" people. + +&#x200B; + +Over the past decade my views have evolved somewhat, where I recognize that paying for such services could be an investment: an hour less that I spend on this type of work is an hour more I can spend on my fulltime job, which will hopefully increase my value to my company (and therefore my income). So as a rough rule of thumb I could estimate how much I spend on these services and ask whether my opportunity cost is higher; we might peg that opportunity cost around $250/hour given my income. + +&#x200B; + +The confounding factor is that I can't simply expect to earn $250 per extra hour worked; it's a bet more than anything else; so I haven't fully embraced hiring people for these services. Right now we're only paying for a nanny share and a twice-a-month house cleaner. + +&#x200B; + +I'm curious how others on this sub see these sorts of expenses; how guilty should I feel for paying someone to clean my house? Normal FIRE suggests doing these things yourself. fatFIRE seems to suggest paying someone else.Should I embrace it and leverage it to do more at my job? +I don’t think I am worth enough yet to justify hiring a true multi-family office. I recently moved to a new area, purchasing a $1M house with cash. Still have significant liquid assets, and significant capital gains taxes to manage and pay. How do I shop around for a professional to meet my needs? Google searches, then ask them all if they’re fiduciaries? I’m kind of at a loss how to even approach this without getting suckered into something untenable. Please advise! +Like I dont know if you edge lords are just fishing for upvotes or if a bear/bull touched you when you were little, but the whole bear and bull tribalism shit needs to stop. Like it's okay if you are feeling bullish or bearish and want to express that sentiment to the sub, but the whole: + +"Eat a bag of dicks you fucking bears/bulls! I hope you lose all your money and die!" is just fucking toxic. WSB is retarded sometimes lol, but I still think we are one of the most accepting trading subs out there. Let's try and keep it that way. + +In the end we are all just a bunch of autists trying to fuck insitituational investors out of their money for a change (empashis on "trying" lol). So give your brotheren/sisteran a pat on the back, share an autistic screech together, and remember ALWAYS remember + +Mods are gay +**TLDR: Barring apocalypse, will the stock market always increase over the long term? Why?** + +I'm in my early twenties. I've been lurking around this subreddit for a while, and doing lots of reading. It seems predominant advice is "invest in index funds (basically cover the whole market" and sit on it until you retire. + +Recently, I wondered about how the stock market actually works. + +I've read about how [stocks will never go down because more and more debt is created in the world](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqvKjsIxT_8). I've seen historical data that the market has always gone up since the "beginning". It also makes sense because as more assets are created in the world, value of stock market should also trend upwards. As long as human production is greater than consumption, as long as we're continuing to innovate and create technologies and efficiencies, we should be getting richer. + +As someone who has many years to look forward to, however- I am left with doubt. Will this always be true? Are there possibilities I am not accounting for? + +This is what is driving my doubt (just extreme thought experiments): My understanding is that the stock market is just how much a bunch of people decide different companies in the world are worth added up. This means stocks are just speculation. There isn't actually that much money in the world, nor that much assets. Is it possible that one day everyone realizes this, and we correct to actual values? So Stock $$$ > World Assets $$$: doesn't this mean the whole stock market is a bubble? It seems we have more and more people investing in stocks... but if everyone becomes rich enough to stop working, how can we get richer? You don't have to answer these, they're all unrealistic possibilities, but they are what have been causing me to doubt and ask this next question: + +**Barring the apocalypse or some sort of event which makes money and economics completely redundant, is it guaranteed that over the long term, the market will ALWAYS trend upwards? Assume I have more than 50 years before I retire. Can I invest 100% mindlessly into total market index funds for 50 years, or are there things I have to watch out for which may spell the end of the stock market era into a new paradigm of investing? Please point me to where I have to look to understand this.** + +Just a very nuanced and interesting discussion of the actual story of who the top 1% - and 0.01% are with hard numbers, data, and research. Found it pretty fascinating and thought some of my fellow fatFIRE community would enjoy it as well. Feel free to remove if links aren't allowed anymore. + +[http://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2017/article/never-mind-1-percent-lets-talk-about-001-percent](http://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2017/article/never-mind-1-percent-lets-talk-about-001-percent) +I know most people in this forum generally subscribe to the Boglehead philosophy of buy and hold, stay invested no matter what, etc. Not to be a downer, but I have a serious question about the safety of cash holdings. The prime MMs are currently under tremendous stress. + +For those that currently have a lot of their net worth in cash, what are the options available to protect that cash in the unlikely event of bank failures and brokerage failures? /fatFire members have the unique problem of FDIC and SIPC limits that probably don't protect all of our liquid assets. +Inspired by the [How much house is too much?](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/h9q54f/how_much_house_is_too_much/) thread. + +For those of you that have very big houses with lots of rooms, what have you turned the extra rooms into? Gym? Guest bedroom? Office? Home theatre? Storage space? Sauna? + +Which rooms are awesome and you spend tons of time in? + +Which rooms just sit empty and unused, requiring furniture and cleaning and giving no other benefit? +Curious how many others out there who’ve fat RE’d and are makers. + +I’ve been involved with electronics, 3d printing, and woodworking for a while. In early 2021, I had an IPO windfall and in late 2021, decided to RE. Since then, I’ve been expanding my equipment and shop. + +What I’ve been struggling with is having a sense of direction. It feels a little hard to articulate, but it’s like do I make what I know I can make, or experiment and try new things? I can make some cool carvings on my CNC router and all, but also like to tinker constantly. NYC CNC had a video touring a shop of Michael Dubno and he had a bunch of stuff that he made to scratch his own itches and just experiment. Perhaps I don’t know where I itch yet. + +Anyone else consider themselves makers? Curious to hear your journey, how you spend your time, and where you’re headed. +In the physician community, disability insurance is discussed frequently. This makes sense because we are rather pigeon-holed into a narrow specialty without the ability to translate our skills to a similar paying position elsewhere. + +Is disability insurance similarly prevalent in other fields, such as software engineering (what is you lose your vision or have debilitating headaches) or law? +Curious on this community's thoughts on Entrepreneurship Through Acquisition. +I'm just finishing my first year of an MBA, and I'm considering pursuing this route upon graduation. It's a buzzing topic on campus (top 3 program) but I never hear about it online. + +In a nutshell- buying a long-established business from a retiring owner. Average numbers are cashflows from 750k - 1.5mil; selling for about 4x. + +Through a combo of seller financing, SBA loan, and some investor equity, you can own 75%+ (with investors at 25%). Ideally you grow the business, and I've had several friends double cash flows in first year of takeover. +But even without crazy growth, once you pay down debt, you're personally cashflowing enough to have a personal networth of a couple million in a less than 7 years. + +Have any of you done something similar? (Not a startup, but an acquisition.) Even if not, would love your perspective on Entrepreneurship Through Acquisition (ETA) as a viable path to fatFIRE in my 30s. + +I see a lot of posts where real estate is a big part of NW, but there are a lot of ways to invest in real estate. So I'm curious how others are investing. I have a few SFH rentals and also do some SFH owner-financing. I have only been doing this a few years now, but I am trying to develop long term revenue streams to supplement my market investments into retirement. + +So what is your particular flavor of RE investment? SFH rentals? Multi-family (individually owned, JV, syndication, etc.)? Private equity investments? +Is it just my imagination? I took a break from reddit for a year or two and back then I remember r/investing being more informative and mature. Now I feel like almost every thread contains a slight hint of r/wsb humor and tone. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: become -> becoming. I was a bit tipsy when I typed this. +**TLSS** *\*****huge****\** news to aquire **SalSon Logistics !!!SalSon** has a monster **account** base to include **The Gap** and many other Retailers distribution ! + +"TLSS Enters Into Agreement to Acquire Salson Logistics, Inc.9:00 am ET June 21, 2021 (Accesswire) PrintAcquisition Would Anchor Company's Growth Strategy + +JUPITER, FL / ACCESSWIRE / June 21, 2021 / Transportation and Logistics Systems, Inc. (OTC Pink:TLSS) ("TLSS" or the "Company"), an eCommerce fulfillment service provider, today announced that on June 15, 2021, it entered into a stock purchase agreement to acquire all of the outstanding stock of SalSon Logistics, Inc., a leading third-party logistics company founded in 1960, based in Newark, New Jersey ("SalSon"). The purchase price for the acquisition is $90 million, which based on a multiple of the EBITDA of SalSon, with the consideration payable in the form of $50 million of cash, 19.9% of the Company's then outstanding Common Stock, and $20 million in seller financing. + +According to CEO John Mercadante, "This would be a game-changing acquisition for TLSS. Anthony Berritto has built an outstanding business, a leader in the industry, with a long-standing history of servicing some of the most prestigious companies in the country. Moreover, SalSon's business provides an amazing platform and extensive infrastructure that would greatly enhance the Company's ability to execute its acquisition and organic growth strategy." + +The Company's primary strategy has been to become a leader in the transportation industry in providing on-time, high-quality pick-up, transportation and delivery services. The Company has expected to accomplish this goal, in part, by pursuing strategic acquisitions as a means of adding new markets in the United States, expanding its transportation and logistics service offerings, adding talented management and operational employees, expanding and upgrading its technology platform and developing operational best practices. Moreover, one factor in assessing acquisition opportunities is the potential for subsequent organic growth post-acquisition. + +After undertaking, what the Company believes has been, a successful restructuring in 2020, the Company began its acquisition strategy in Q1 2021 to replace its previously unprofitable Amazon business through the purchase of Double D Trucking and Cougar Express. The Company believes that SalSon Logistics represents the type of business operation that would provide the infrastructure suitable as a foundation for significant growth through subsequent acquisition opportunities, as well as for organic growth potential. Moreover, the depth of SalSon's assets, strong operational management team, infrastructure, technology, client base, revenue diversification and premier location would help mitigate potential operational integration risks and costs associated with an acquisition strategy. + +SalSon, which is strategically located in the heart of Port of Newark, with additional locations in Florida, Georgia, New York, South Carolina, Texas and Virginia, offers a range of services including warehousing, transload services, dedicated contract carriage, dray management, and store delivery servicing the retail, food and beverage, and industrial sectors. With more than 1,200 associates, over 1 million square feet of warehousing and a dedicated fleet of 550 tractors and 1,500 trailers, SalSon's capabilities include cross dock, regional and local truckload, intermodal, vendor consolidation and deconsolidation, pool distribution, and unattended store delivery. + +Finally, the Company believes this acquisition could improve the growth potential of TLSS because, with SalSon as the core foundational operation of the Company, synergistic targets that complement this business could bring immediate value when more acquisitions are secured. Furthermore, the opportunity for broadening existing customer relationships of SalSon customers or future strategic acquisition customers would likely improve with a linchpin transaction like SalSon. + +Mr. Anthony Berritto, President of SalSon, added, "we are in one of the most exciting and opportunistic times in the logistics space. So by joining forces with TLSS, a publicly-traded company, I strongly believe that together, we can accelerate our mutual goal of growth through strategic acquisition, as well as more readily capitalize upon organic growth opportunities presently available in the industry." + +Mr. Berritto is expected to stay on to oversee the operation of SalSon and the Company's existing fulfillment services subsidiaries. It is a condition to the closing of the transaction that Mr. Berritto enter into an employment agreement with SalSon. Mr. Berritto has agreed in principle to do so, but if the parties do not reach an agreement on employment terms, the Company does not intend to complete the transaction. + +The transaction is contingent upon the Company's ability to secure debt financing for the cash portion of the purchase price. The financing will be secured by the assets of SalSon, and it will likely rely exclusively on SalSon's assets and financial performance. SalSon currently is profitable with almost $100 million in annual revenues.If the debt financing for the cash portion of the purchase price cannot be obtained, then the transaction will not close. + +The Company expects that it will need to raise the aggregate of approximately $60 million in financing (including approximately $6 million in equity financing) to fund the cash portion of the purchase price, investment banking fees, transaction costs and working capital for SalSon and the Company's other operations. The financing amount is approximately 2.4 times the Company's market capitalization as of the date of this press release. If the financing is completed, the Company also will be required to issue common stock equal in value to up to 5% of the aggregate debt financing and warrants (with a 5-year term and cashless exercise) to purchase shares equal in value to up to 10% of the aggregate securities financing." + +Credit to TruckingAngler on TLSS subreddit for first posting about it. + +Come check out our subreddit "TLSS" lots of info and lots of friendly people! +I'm trying to understand options and having a hard time getting a grasp. + +I understand they are high risk and there is no way I'm even going to dabble in it right now, since I don't have a clue what I'm doing, but can someone help me understand that if 1 Contract (100 shares) cost 500 dollars (5 each). Does this mean the max you can lose is 500 dollars or is there something else I'm missing? + +Thank you +As many of you know, Draftkings went public Friday through a reverse merger with DEAC. When announced last November, the deal was valued at $3.3 billion. In order to hold $400 million cash as required by the terms of the deal, DEAC sold stock which was originally priced at $10 per share. The value of those shares rose to \~$17 by market close yesterday driven by people wanting to invest in Draftkings before the deal was finalized. These DEAC shares are being swapped today 1:1 for DKNG shares. + +Problem is, DEAC's S1/A (describing the deal - link below) filed with the SEC yesterday described a large increase in the supply of shares of stock available following the merger. On the 2nd page DEAC is listed as having 44.7 million shares of stock and 3 million warrants. In the "description of securities" section on page 150 it says the following: + +*After giving effect to the Business Combination, New DraftKings will have approximately 313 million shares of Class A common stock outstanding (assuming no redemptions) and approximately 394 million shares of Class B common stock outstanding (assuming no redemptions).* + +For the original deal valuation of $3.3 billion be true, the share price with a 313 million share supply should be \~$10 per share, which is exactly what DEAC offered to pay for shares that did not wish to be converted to shares of DKNG at the shareholder meeting yesterday. Today, DKNG stock opened at over $20 per share which indicates a deal value of over $6 billion. How is this possible when it seems existing shares are being diluted 6-1? + +At Charles Schwab (and many other brokerages as well), DKNG shares have not yet been provided to sell. On Friday, the orderbook was incredibly thin, but once new shares hit the market large holders have the liquidity they need to dump at an absurd valuation. + +Buy all the puts? Someone please tell me why I am wrong? + +Deal prospectus - SEC filing: + +[https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-20-049986/#b\_020](https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-20-049986/#b_020) +I am typically a value oriented investor and focus heavily on valuations. Fundamentals on Google are sound: strong recurring revenue base, monopolistic tendencies, value add to customer, network effects, cross selling across revenue streams etc. I find it hard to argue that Google is going anywhere anytime soon. + +Valuation wise, many think that FAANG is overpriced. Some of it is. Google trades at a whopping 37x earnings! But only 24x forward. And only 15x fwd EV/EBITDA. That is the metric I will focus on for now as I tend to use DCF models with EV/EBITDA terminal values. The average EV/EBITDA multiple over the last 10 years is about 16x. The lowest was 10x and 10x is the lowest it ever traded since IPO. Using a DCF model and using ultra bear scenario of the following assumptions: 2022-2025 revenue growth of 0% annually (yes, correct), gross margins of 55% (below the 10 year average of 60%), operating margin of about 23% (10 year average 25%), D&A constant at 8% of revenue, Capex in line with Bloomberg estimates approx 16-17% of revenue, and change in NWC of about -3% (consistent with last 4 years). WACC is 9.5% and used a 10x exit multiple. This estimates an intrinsic value of $2068, about -9% from current values. And that is the bear case with ultra bearish assumptions. + +The base case then with revenue growth of 10%, same margins, higher depreciation based on consensus estimates, and an exit multiple of the 10 year average of 16x yields a price of $4831, upside of 112%. + +Of course, I never truly depend on a DCF model to provide an exact price because there are so many assumptions that will never play out as expected, but it is a great tool to identify what factors impact price and some worst case scenarios. It is further evidence to me that Google is one of the most undervalued large caps with a wide moat around its largest product, expanding its range and interconnectivity of its products constantly, and generating a significant amount of cash in the meantime. + +Let me know your thoughts. + +Edit: Cant disagree more with the Mod post below. EV/EBITDA is a widely accepted method of DCF analysis especially when comparing firms with varying amounts of leverage. EV/EBITDA is a terminal multiple used to estimate a value for the company at the end of the forecasting period. The forecasting period still uses FCFF. I find it weird that these mods can just post their OPINION on these threads and state it as if it is a FACT. All of my thesis and modeling is clearly opinion and open to discussion, where the Mod is not for whatever reason. +Original post [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/3b8i9u/just_got_laid_off_looking_for_input_on_next_steps/) + +Recap: I'd been working as an engineer for a small consulting company for the past three years. Company was struggling, which resulted in my pay not really increasing since when I started right out of school, and ultimately I got laid off. Came to /r/personalfinance for input on how to proceed. + +I've just been offered a new job, which I will be starting on August 10. I found found out about it through a neighbor of mine who works at the company. I will be making $72,800, up from $53,400 at my old job. My commute will be ten minutes shorter, and I expect to find the new job more interesting and rewarding than the old one. + +I elected to extend my old health insurance through COBRA, since it wasn't much more expensive than what I could get on my own, and it provides much better coverage. I never got around to filing for unemployment, and I still need to roll my old 401k into an IRA. + +Looking forward to relaxing for the next two weeks, going on vacation the week after that, and starting my job a few days after the vacation. Life is good! + +Edit: Woo, front page! Now I'll need to think about deleting my account, as someone who knows me in the real world has no doubt seen this post and recognized me! +I apologize in advance for the length, but there is a lot to cover here and I’ve tried to be as thorough as possible. + +I’ve noticed a lot of folks on this sub asking about crypto-lending platforms and what they should consider before abandoning their APY-challenged, traditional savings accounts and parking all of their money in stablecoin via BlockFi, Nexo, Celsius, Voyager or others. I thought it would be valuable to go over what I think are the most significant risks involved with this approach and thus what people should be thinking about before making the switch and going all-in. This is by no means an exhaustive list, but I do think these are the most material risks. I’ve also included some risk mitigation techniques that I am actively using in hopes that others will find them useful as well. + +**Counterparty risk/risk of default** + +The reason interest rates are so high on these platforms is because your crypto is not sitting safely in cold storage, but rather is actively being loaned out. People often mistake the personal loans that they can take from these companies as the main type of lending that they do. That is not the case however, and most of these companies are actually loaning your crypto on a much bigger scale. This comes with considerable counterparty risk regardless of what the company has advertised as their LTV. The reality is that there is a non-zero risk of each company not being able to call back its loaned capital (your crypto). This risk is exacerbated by extreme market conditions or tail events which can lead to significant losses for the company. In these cases, it would be you and your crypto on the hook. + +A risk mitigation strategy that I practice is to spread my funds across multiple companies to avoid a total loss if one platform experiences issues with defaults. However, given that the risk intensifies with extreme market conditions, it’s possible that several companies could be impacted at once. Continuing to hold at least some funds in fiat further mitigates this risk. + +**Cyber risk** + +This is the risk of a hack to either your personal account or the platform itself. One broad mitigation technique is again to spread funds across multiple platforms to avoid a total loss if one of your accounts or one platform is hacked. + +Account hack: This risk is considerably greater than the same thing happening to your online bank for example, given that once crypto is gone, it’s gone. The mitigation of this risk in entirely in your hands, however. Recommended actions include using a different, non-public email address for each platform that you use, setting strong, unique passwords for each account, enabling 2FA through an app rather than via SMS, and whitelisting addresses where available. + +Platform hack: Unlike account hacks, this risk is generally totally out of your control. There have been hacks to platforms in the past with significant losses and there will be hacks again in the future. Although this does not eliminate the risk, it is important to use only companies that you consider trustworthy and that demonstrate their concern for cybersecurity. While requiring that the company has some sort of insurance coverage is a good strategy, keep in mind that in the event of an extreme loss of assets, it is unlikely that their insurance coverage would even come close to making you whole. + +One broad mitigation technique for both types of hacks is again to spread funds across multiple platforms to avoid a total loss if one of your accounts or one platform is hacked. + +**"Stablecoin risk"** + +The question regarding these platforms is often, “Why shouldn’t I put all my savings in stablecoin on <insert platform> and earn 8.5% APY?” Setting aside the first two risks, there is also the risk that stablecoins are USD pegged, but they still aren’t USD. Without going into too much detail here (because you could write a whole post comparing/contrasting stablecoins and each one’s actual stability) what it essentially comes down to is that the value of these stablecoins depends entirely on the adequacy of their reserves and whether they are fully-backed and always-exchangeable for actual USD. Let’s call it the USD-standard. While most are audited, there still exists a non-zero risk that the USD-standard fails either through insolvency, fraud or something else. Obviously your funds held in stablecoin are not insured by any government backed insurance programs, so any risk event leading to those stablecoins not being as stable as advertised would fall on you. A mitigation technique that I practice here is to not hold all of my funds in one specific stablecoin, but rather spread out across USDC, GUSD, BUSD to avoid a total loss given an issue with one of them. + +**Investment/FX risks** + +We can call this an honorable mention since, in comparison to the first three, its high frequency/low severity nature and ability to be mitigated or avoided entirely make it less significant. Not only that, but there are scenarios where these risks yield favorable outcomes. First of all, by investment risk I’m referring to the option that many platforms have of receiving flex interest or interest not in-kind. You deposit stablecoin and they pay you interest in Bitcoin. There is clear investment risk here as a receiving your interest payments in a volatile asset could negate your gains and could leave you even worse off than the 0.5% APY your bank offered. In terms of FX risk, this impacts a lot of folks outside of the US whose options for stablecoins are almost exclusively USD pegged. Unfavorable movements in the FX rate between your native currency and USD could result in both your capital and interest payments being worth less to you than initial deposit. + +Mitigating/avoiding the first is relatively straightforward here. Either earn your interest-in-kind or in assets you believe have upside while knowing that you are taking a risk. In terms of FX, this is harder to mitigate if using USD stablecoin is what’s required to participate. However, you may be offsetting some currency risk to begin with by diversifying your savings across more than just your native currency. +Just a friendly reminder to be cautious when talking about your Bitcoin funds both online and offline. You are prone to crime-against-the-rich, targeted phishing emails, and it's an invasion to your privacy. Bitcoin is about financial superiority and you don't need to report to everyone else what you do. +It's going up 10 times every 8 days or so. And now it's getting a foot hold in all sorts of new huge cities like Chicago. + +How stupid is it for me to sell my entire Roth IRA and put in a limit order for 10% less (s&p index) +This is a simple confession---I feel like at times (especially when stocks are rising or falling quickly), I tend to check our net worth too frequently. Reducing the frequency with which I check our net worth is a resolution for 2018. The bottom line is whether the number is going up or down not much will change our behavior moving forward. Anyone else ever notice this happening with them? +Hello! I couldn’t think of anywhere else to post but there is a personal finance angle so hope it’s ok here – please re-direct me if not. + +I have been in my current role(HEO) for two years and I’m really unhappy. I don’t want to leave the CS because I know it might just need me to move roles for things to improve. Also, I really value flexible working, generous leave and the pension scheme. If I unpick it, the unhappiness is a combination of: + +The role/work – highly stressful at times, no longer interesting. + +The team/directorate – poor leadership and management, lack of support, high staff turnover, low morale. + +Location – based in London and personally feel fed up of being in the Westminster bubble. I also think there can be a bit of an ivory tower mentality that exists within parts of the London based CS which I don’t like. + +B word – can’t escape it I know but it definitely contributes to the unhappiness + +So here are a few things I have been doing: + +I have maxed out all the L&D opportunities especially as I had a lot of time to dedicate to this during the pre-election period. + +Also did a short secondment in another department during the summer which was a positive experience overall. + +I check CS jobs every day but haven’t seen anything that interests me lately. I know I should probably apply even if I’m not 100% on the role as at least it’s a chance to test my competencies(or whatever they are called now) and get some interview practice. Now the election is out the way I’m hoping more roles will be coming up – fingers crossed. Since I’m seriously considering relocating, I will be widening my search to include roles outside of London. Also not against moving on a level transfer for the right role but would need to consider drop in salary. This might not be such a big deal though if cost of living is cheaper than London and I can still save more every month. + +I am open to any advice/support/reflections on the above and would also be happy to hear from: + +Those who moved from London to elsewhere – where did you move(department and location), why, are you happy you did? + +Those who are based in the CS outside London – where are you (department, location), what’s it like? + +Thanks for reading! +Based on SimplyWallst, I dig through some data and noticed some changes. Last month, Instituiton ownership was 70% and now there is 2% more than last month. + +https://preview.redd.it/h7fyw2fnw3r61.jpg?width=1216&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00f4f2444d70f76d593e28f44ff53968a0186280 + +This is chart to show Top Shareholders and RC owns right after BlackRock which is the largest Investment company in the world. Beside, George Sherman who is current CEO has way lower than RC. + +https://preview.redd.it/o546klaow3r61.jpg?width=1198&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8103ff24e1cd8bdc0b19d37698c8a5607a1111e7 + +Therefore, by looking at this Top Shareholder data, I believe RC will be soon take over CEO position of GME and I am looking forward to hear his public announcement. And we see you in the moon! 🚀 +Hi all, + +So as the title says, I (23yrs old) filed my taxes alone for the first time and I received a letter yesterday saying “information from either your return or our record indicates the primary taxpayer is deceased”. I used to be filed under my parents until this year. My mom called the accountant who said that this happened because I filed taxes for the first time. Is this true? I don’t really believe him and it’s unsettling to receive a letter thinking I’m deceased. How do I fix this? + +Edit: First off, thank you for the help everyone. I’m taking work off tomorrow to get this done ASAP. Also, the jokes made me smile haha. Second of all, I disappeared from reddit for a few hours and come back to all these replies :p +My girlfriend is ready for a ring, and I am basically there, but I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the financial aspects of everything that goes into sharing a life with someone. + +As of last month I no longer have any student loans/car payments/credit card debt, and have about 10k in savings, but my girlfriend has a little above 100k in debt mostly student loans, a car payment, and about 3k in credit card debt, with about 2k in savings + +I'm making around 90k per year, and my girlfriend is making 40ish, with very little chance of that going up + +Just the idea of me taking on her debt with marriage is daunting, but also how am I supposed to spend 5-10k on a ring, have a wedding with a fun reception, and then buy a house (currently renting with 1500ish rent/utilities per month). + +It seems impossible to save for things, and still enjoy life, am I missing something? + +EDIT: I think a lot of people are focusing on the cost of the ring i mentioned (and that very well may have been way to high, i was just going of some cursory google searches for averages), and i appreciate your input, but the real question is evening ignoring a ring, how is someone supposed to pay off that debt, eventually get a house/own a place, and not just hate life. +Really sorry if this is the wrong sub. Please direct me to the right place if it is because I would like this question answered. + +I was buying breakfast just now at an airport when my card got declined. Confused, I checked my online statement and I have 300 dollars in charges that I didn't recognize. They date back about three days ago. I googled the information provided near the charge (like how it'll say CVS MIAMI 0000xxxx or whatever) and they're charges being made at gas stations. How are they using my card like that if I have it here with me? I called immediately and had my account blocked so it's not an issue anymore but I'm just curious as to how this was done. + +edit: Thanks so much to everyone for the explanations, especially /u/sir_not_sir . Also thanks to everyone sharing stories. Hopefully getting the money back will be painless. I genuinely thought that credit cards were somehow more "secure" than things like hotel cards so that getting a card writer for credit cards was not possible. + +If for whatever reason my ignorance is quite personally frustrating for you, perhaps you may enjoy reading [this.](https://xkcd.com/1053/) +As always, you can read this on my [blog](http://stockmarketnoob.com/2017/10/27/step-3-of-10-what-is-their-competitive-advantage-who-are-their-competitors/), or read it on Reddit. + +**Step 3 of 10: What is their Competitive Advantage & Who are their Competitors?** + +Sometimes the company's competitive advantages are explained in the 10-K report, but sometimes we have to make common sense judgment on what their competitive advantages are and why that is. This is because if the company lose their competitive advantage, their price will go down in the long term. + +Competitive advantages are very important because that is our moat around our castle. When competitors try to come invade our castle and if our moat is very weak, invaders can easily take over our castle and steal everything. We want a very deep and wide moat with lots of piranhas, explosives, and other protective gear because we don’t want our castle to be invaded. + +If the company’s moat is very strong, they can keep making their high margins. We should be able to see if the company’s competitive advantage has been hurt when we see a hit on their margins. + +Competitive advantages are different in every industry, so we have to do some digging within that industry to find out what the moat is in that specific industry. For a commodity such as oil, having the lowest price is their competitive advantage because it does not matter where you pump your gas from since gas is gas. Let's look at an example we might see every day. If we are at a Valero gas station and if there an Exxon across the street, and the Exxon is $0.20 cheaper than Valero, we are going to fuel up at the Exxon! + +**Let’s look at some of Apple's competitive advantages (NYSE: AAPL).** + +In my opinion, these are Apple’s competitive advantages: + +**Premium Brand** + +Apple has a premium brand so they can charge more than most phone makers. Also, there are a lot of passionate fanboys who are brand loyal and will wait hours outside when Apple releases a new phone! Do people do this for Android? For Samsung? Nope. + +**Switching Cost / Network Effect** + +It is very hard for Apple users to switch to an android device because they have all their information on an iPhone. It is actually getting easier for people to switch, however, it is still pretty hard for iPhone users to switch. As more and more Apple users come onto the system more and more people will develop games and apps on their Appstore. + +**Ease of Use** + +This is debatable, however, that is why this section is qualitative! Apple's interface seems more intuitive than an Android device. + +**Customer Service** + +I would say Apple has one of the best in-store and online customer service. When I go to an apple store, an Apple representative is always there and waiting to answer any questions that I might have. They are always checking up on me and even the consumer checkout process is easy! No waiting in-line! + +**Now let’s think about who competes with Apple.** Google makes phones however 90%+ of Google's revenue comes from ads, Microsoft kind of makes phones but not really haha. There are other phone makers such as Xiaomi, LG, Samsung, etc.. Competition is fierce in this industry. + +Remember what I said about margins? When margins shrink, it is a sign of decreasing pricing power which means that the company is losing some their competitive advantage. We won't be looking at numbers in depth in this section, but let's take a quick look at Apple's Operating Margins. + +In 2008, Apple had an operating margin of 22% and in 2012, Apple had an operating margin of 35%. +In 2014, Apple had an operating margin of 29% and in 2016, Apple had an operating margin of 27%. + +Until 2012, other phone makers were playing catch up. In 2013 - 2014, Apple's competitors have caught up which decreased Apple's margins a bit. + +**TL; DR** + +- Figure out what the company’s competitive advantage is. +- Figure out how strong the company’s competitive advantage is. +- Find who the competitors are. +PayPal CEO Dan Schulman provided new details about the company’s recent embrace of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on Monday, describing plans for shopping tools as well as potential partnerships with central banks. + +https://fortune.com/2020/11/02/paypal-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-venmo/ +I always stumble back on this question, mega giants especially in the US have billions in R&D, can knock at the door of public markets to get even more, yet they acquire start-ups. Are they interested in the IP at all? Why don't they just do it on their own? + +This is apparently a question which Buffet posed to Gates at the beginning of their friendship, when Buffet was convinced that tech was a dud . Specifically he asked: + +"Hey, Microsoft is a small company, IBM is this huge company, why can you do better? Why can't they beat you at the software game that you're playing?'" +I know this has been posted before... and I'm still seeing a lot of you crayon eaters aren't in Zen mode yet. Lets recap some things: + +$BBBY's all time high was in 2014 at $80 a share. Since then the chart hasn't done so hot and hovered below $20 and even into single digits, until... + +$BBBY squoze with other meme stocks + +\- $20 in Dec 2020, $53 in Jan 2021 + +RC is not in a leadership position and $BBBY leadership does not seem intent on making changes to the company that would elicit the stock to 3 or 4x in a bear market. But RC is betting that it does? He must know something that we don't... + +It's funny how GameStop has formally announced a NFT marketplace and has repeatedly stated motivation to enhance shareholder value. What better way to do that than with a NFT dividend? Just so happens a NFT dividend would eviscerate naked shorts like the Lost Ark did the Nazis in Indiana Jones. Naked shorting doesn't exist though (HAH) and the NFT dividend would simply be to reward shareholders and attract customers to their marketplace. A fancy biproduct of a NFT dividend is that it sets of MOASS, which has repercussions to all meme stocks, netting RC a nice little payday without selling his $GME. + +RC IS **BETTING** ON MOASS BEFORE JANUARY 2023. + +DRS TO LOCK THE FLOAT. IT MAKES THE NFT DIVIDEND EVEN MORE EXPLOSIVE. JUST THINK ABOUT IT!! + I purchased an item on Gumtree for £150 on 7th August. I used Paypal buyer protection when I bought it because it was going to be posted and not in person collection as seller was far away. Here’s where things get confusing. The seller dispatches it on 9th August with 2nd class signed for. When tracking online it says it was dispatched at a post office near to where he lives so I thought ok that checks out. I track the item with the tracking number given next morning and it says the item was delivered which is surely impossible. After phoning Royal Mail and visiting my local Delivery Office I eventually find out that whatever was delivered went through the door and was delivered to someone else on my road and was named for them. It was also first class. I pay a visit to the person on my road and they didn’t receive anything apart from a mini Covid leaflet. Therefore I can no longer track my item as it says it was delivered. I check with the seller and they sent me proof of postage receipt with the same tracking number and showing my address as well as an item weight of 2.64kg which seems accurate. 2 weeks later after purchasing the item still hasn’t arrived. The seller has also taken very long to reply at times and I’ve only now noticed pictures of items he is selling have been taken from somewhere else. He also hasn't given me the information to start a claim with Royal Mail yet. Is it possible that he printed the receipt himself? Do I claim with Royal Mail or PayPal? If he has proof of postage do I have a chance of winning a PayPal dispute? What are my best bets in getting a refund? Should I claim with Royal Mail, they said the seller needs to do that and he’s taking his sweet time to do it so can i do that myself? Help would be greatly appreciated. +I called about setting up an account but decided not to as I hadn't seen my meter. Now that I have 6 months later (after the restaurant owner let me) it turns out the whole building has only one meter. Is this legal? I live by myself with 9 other flats who have multiple occupants, it would be unfair splitting it 10 ways, especially if the other business is also on the same meter. + +&#x200B; + +I haven't called the company yet, I do want to know how to go about this. The meter said 2500 cubic meters (I assume). From the conversation when I first moved in that would mean I'm on the hook for +£600 which makes living here absolutely not worth it, after talking with my neighbours it turns out no one pays it but I know they can chase me for this for 7 years after I move out, potentially asking for more. + +&#x200B; + +What's my best course of action? I want to pay what's reasonable, I used to pay about £50 fixed for a whole household, this is far from reasonable or justifiable. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: I tried to keep it brief but here are extra facts: + +1. When I first called, the person on the phone said it's roughly £2.30 per cubic metre plus extra charges (hence my estimate) +2. It's a private landlord and the contract says I'm responsible for the water +3. I have seen one or two letters for my neighbours (our mail is put on the window sill) from the water company but they never reached out to me/my flat number +4. it's a Victorian building with 10 flats and 2 restaurant businesses below me. +5. when I checked the meter I asked the employees if that's the only one and they confirmed. My neighbours and the company confirmed it's in the basement of the restaurant and no one was being let it by the owner (at the time, I asked nicely when they were renovating the place). +LOL, Bloomberg wrote today there's a fake Goldman Sachs financial firm in China. Thanks God got out of $GS day trade yesterday at 184.32 for 3.45/sh gain. How many other fakes not found out yet? + +Guys, let's make our own one. Let say another FED, huh? ;) +Every single person here wants to know what's going to set off MOASS. + +That's a fact. + +Even the shills and hedgies want to know. + +It's an inevitable event in the market. + +Also a fact. + +I see the same question over and over and over when I close my eyes and read the subtitles for my thoughts. + +How is MOASS going to start? + +I don't care about when because of the second fact stated 3 sentences ago. + + +[Subtitles] + +Is it going to be the stock split dividend? + +Is it going to be the marketplace? + +Is it going to be a merger? + +Is it going to be the float getting locked up in Computershare? + +Is there enough mayo in the world for Kenneth Griffin? + +There isn't. + +That's the third fact. + +[End of subtitles] + +But I digress. + +It dawned on me then, that there are really only 2 ways that the world will be changed forever. + +By our hands. Or by our parents hands over at Gamestop. + +Our parents have more moves because duh. + +But the children have but one move. Buying direct registered Gamestop shares. + +And it's a race! + +A race between daddy Cohen and baby apes. + +And I don't know about ya'll baby apes; but I want to win. + +Cohen has carried me far enough. I love you dad but it's time I carried you for a change. + +So I'm tying my baby ape sneakers, loading up on crayons for carbs, and doing what need be done. + +And I'm doing it one share at a time! + +I'll see you retards at the finish line. + +The inevitable finish line. + +Defer to the fact 25 sentences ago. + +[The real end of subtitles] + +You're welcome. +You've just had your mind blown. +Mic. +Drop. +Out. + +[The really real end of the subtitles] +I'm already familiar with the ways of the almighty flowchart (I studied it while you were out partying) but wanted to make sure my plan for maximising returns on cash savings is optimal. + +I recently inherited £95k and am planning to use the bulk of it to buy a property definitely within the next 5 years (too short to invest) so want to keep it as cash. + +My current situation is: + +28 year old +£38.5k income +£75k in S&S ISA (vanguard funds with iweb) +£29k Marcus (still on 1.5%) +£13k company pension (10% + 10% contributions, maxed match) +£12.2k in LISA +£4k regular savers (mature in may) +£2k company share scheme +£1k crypto (shits and giggles) + +No debt apart from student loan but that doesn't really count now does it? I'm currently saving at least £550 a month so have a solid budget. + +My current thinking is £4k into LISA, £27k into Marcus (I'd hit the personal savings allowance beyond that), £50k into premium bonds (for better expected returns than taxable savings accounts), as for the rest, a mix of treating myself/gf and S&S ISA. + +As both my gf and I have LISAs we reckon that having £120k-ish between us would allow us to eventually get a good mortgage rate (with circa 70% LTV) on a property towards the LISA limit when we're ready to buy. + +Would those allocations make sense for someone who with those goals in mind? I've done my best to think it through but wanted to be sure I wasn't missing a trick. +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +Yesterday, there was a post on r/cryptocurrency about someone that killed himself after being liquidated in the big dip. Please guys, don't worry and don't be hard on yourself, you just made a mistake, use it to learn from it. Try to learn about the technology and the history of bitcoin and why it is better than the current system. Yes, most of us are here because of the money, not because we want to be rich as soon as possible (not gonna lie, it would be amazing), but because we believe that the current financial system is screwed and it's just a matter of time before it collapses, at least to me this belief is what makes me HODL. + +So once again, don't be hard on yourself, money comes and go but your life is precious and unique. If you are having problems please reach to someone, hell even I can talk with you if you need it. + +Be careful with your investment and don't invest more than what you can afford to lose, and please don't use leverage! +1. Stock split has not yet been ~~announced~~ decided; they may do so in the future + +2. All current board members got majority votes and are re-elected + +3. 1B shares approved + +4. 2022 GS plans approved + +5. Incentive plan approved (i think this is the receiving shares for bonuses one) + +6. trying to bring the GME wallet to other web3 developers + +7. Unfortunately IRA shares won’t be able to be DRSd anytime soon + +8. “there are present at this meeting, in person, or by proxy, more than a majority of all the shares entitled to cast votes at this meeting” + +Basically everything was approved that was asked about + +The split comment is a shorter version but they don’t have a split planned yet; or they’re playing 5D chess and will just do it later. The media only needs a 10 minute notice according to a redditor below (Please fact check this with a source) +The title pretty much says it.. my band has the first album out and we would love to mint is as NFT.. or maybe all songs separately (?).. can any of you, artist and creator apes point me in the right direction? + +I am an NFT smooth brain and have zero experience in such things.. but I know buy, hodl, DRS and also have my GameStop wallet ready and activated.. thanks a bunch and love you all.. +[Hello! Jellyfish here and I would like to dive into Union Pacific's most recent service interruptions in the broader 'inflation in the transportation network' discussion. ](https://i.redd.it/9zaud1jh6tb71.gif) + +We have covered the [transportation network as a whole](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok8wzq/inflation_alert_cass_freight_index_grew_268_yy_in/), but today I would like to drill dive further and review Union Pacific. + +https://i.redd.it/2z2oqoxsdtb71.gif + +# First, recapping at a Macro level: + +https://preview.redd.it/bakv5rp79tb71.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=a4a8e72ca26b60f064e589fef137240494fd635d + +>**The expenditures portion of the Cass Freight Index grew at its fastest pace ever on a y/y basis again in June, up 56.4% y/y, accelerated from 49.9% y/y growth in May. This acceleration occurred even against a slightly tougher comparison, as higher rate trends outweighed the slower shipment volumes**. +> +>Tougher comparisons in the coming months will naturally slow these y/y increases, but **extraordinary growth rates will continue in the near term, driven by increases in both shipment volumes and freight rates**. + +https://preview.redd.it/3bproax8btb71.png?width=889&format=png&auto=webp&s=8958dbd54c12110ed723127f28c8200a669c789d + +# Freight Rates + +The freight rates embedded in the two components of the **Cass Freight Index surged to a 23.4% y/y increase in June from a 10.8% y/y increase in May.** + +**The embedded rates jumped 12.3% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in June, more than reversing a 7.8% m/m decrease in May.** + +**This result confirms that the accelerating trend remained intact through Q2**, + +https://preview.redd.it/m42i1o9actb71.png?width=884&format=png&auto=webp&s=c44ba155033116ac8641bf7716391383f065621a + +# Freight Expectations + +>In June, Class I railroad trends slowed a bit more than tougher prior year comparisons, due in part to chassis shortages. But although automotive volumes turned negative y/y in recent weeks, they rose another 4% m/m in June after gaining 4% in May as parts shortages eased, beginning to recover from the 20% m/m decline in April.In Q2, rail volumes were slightly above sequential seasonal patterns, up 23% y/y, but momentum slowed in recent weeks. Against a y/y decline of 6% in Q3’20, prior year comparisons will be more meaningful in the coming months, and **this broad measure of freight volumes is still on pace for high-single-digit y/y growth in Q3.** +> +>Even with material supply constraints, the freight cycle remains in high-growth mode, benefiting from a strong retail economy, tight inventories, and **a persistent backlog of containerships anchored in the San Pedro Bay**. In addition, while the industrial sector continues to struggle on a relative basis, with record capital goods demand and likely infrastructure programs, an accelerating U.S. industrial sector should support freight growth for some time. +> +>But the dynamics of tight supply and exceptionally strong demand, which have characterized the past year or so will not last indefinitely, and several of the indicators we monitor are auguring new trajectories. + +Quickly recapping above, freight is increasing in price but backed up as supply cannot keep up with demand. Judging by the news from Union Pacific, this dynamic is about to get thrown more out of whack. + +[https:\/\/www.up.com\/customers\/announcements\/customernews\/generalannouncements\/CN2021-42.html](https://preview.redd.it/v0xhhwbgftb71.png?width=1655&format=png&auto=webp&s=0146dc07cfdbcb7be94705d45e273d530f0d8954) + +In a letter at the end of June to customers, Kenny Rocker from Union Pacific detailed on-time shipment for domestic delivery at 68% and international at 73%. + +>'**Robust demand is placing challenges on some supply chains, especially in the intermodal space.'** +> +>'**Roadways and bridges in America are aging out of their lifespans, and that means more closures like the one in Memphis, whether planned or unplanned, are ahead.** Fortunately, these closures don’t affect rail traffic, which means shipping by rail can help companies avoid the impacts of infrastructure improvements on supply chains.' + +# Funny, he brings up roads and bridges not affecting rail, and then BAM! + +[https:\/\/www.up.com\/customers\/announcements\/customernews\/generalannouncements\/CN2021-45.html](https://preview.redd.it/7wukk5rrgtb71.png?width=1436&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf973fc017207154701c79fe4e8fd0be92a0ed9c) + +So, bridges can affect your rail? I know trains are in a war with trucks to move freight but let's be honest about the infrastructure around here--it is falling apart everywhere! + +# Oh, and speaking of delays!: + +[https:\/\/www.up.com\/customers\/announcements\/customernews\/generalannouncements\/CN2021-46.html](https://preview.redd.it/rzicib62htb71.png?width=1462&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7a10ebab8fc145d637487686afec6b441cdb2f9) + +Not only is transportation trying to scramble to keep up with demand, but it is also having to contend with mother nature shutting down strategic pieces for unknown amounts of time. Yes, the bull of this will be handed off to trucking, but as we can see, costs are blowing up there as well: + +[ https:\/\/www.dat.com\/industry-trends\/trendlines\/van\/national-rates ](https://preview.redd.it/40h7ug0shtb71.png?width=1599&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8ed7e909e448ab300cfb1f5fef62c1e9c3906cc) + +The average national *spot rate* for van-type trailers has been rising for the past 12 months and in June reached $2.67 a mile, up 47% year-over-year. The average national *contract rate* for vans jumped by 36% year-over-year, to $2.73 per mile + +[ https:\/\/www.dat.com\/industry-trends\/trendlines\/flatbed\/national-rates ](https://preview.redd.it/swfr9ty1itb71.png?width=1219&format=png&auto=webp&s=73d8f1f4d11ded0c5195630d01b9ce9df2ea15ee) + +The average national spot rate for flatbed trailers (hauling heavy equipment, construction materials like those giant pipes you see convoys transporting on the highway, Kenny's Mayo Jar, etc.) jumped by 52% year-over-year to $3.15 per mile. The *contract rate* jumped 29% year-over-year to $3.12 a mile. + +**All of this while of course diesel prices are of course jumping as well:** + +https://preview.redd.it/b4yy9088itb71.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=014c3c4295440cf3e91df572231b6d11b69ce488 + +**The entire transportation network is facing spikes in costs and supply shortages, and you can bet the costs will get passed down the line. More fun to look forward to over the coming months.** [The CPI number from this week is a lie](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok45ql/inflation_alert_a_dive_into_yesterdays_cpi_report/) **and a joke and inflation is not transitory--as Covid-19, Suez Canal, and Mother Nature all have continued roles to play in seeing it stick around.** + +# All of this pain in the transportation system happening in the backdrop of the Fed still plowing away with [$120 billion in assets purchases each month](https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bank-will-begin-reducing-bond-purchases-well-before-raising-interest-rates-powell-says-11618421656): + +https://i.redd.it/ldnjq86jjtb71.gif + +$40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities. This will continue to depress mortgage rates and **only continues to add gasoline to the inflation fire**. + +$80 billion in Treasury securities a month (with policy rates near 0%): represses short-term and long-term interest rates in general, and inflates asset prices and consumer prices, which **further DESTROYS the purchasing power of the dollar**. + +[While the rest of the world's banks are acting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/okicjz/inflation_alert_bank_of_canada_and_bank_of_new/), The Fed still claims this inflation is “transitory. + +# TL:DR - The Dollar losing purchasing power + Inflation = Permanent Loss of purchasing power + +Buckle up. + +[ Thanks for dropping by and taking a dive! Please let me know if you have any questions or areas to explore, happy to try and help! ](https://i.redd.it/sckufqwjktb71.gif) +TL:DR- 130k student loan debt, no hope for better job, kid on the way, going to be single income family, is bankruptcy a viable option? + +I went to a private college, I thought it would be great on my resume and open a lot of doors for me. Put I was a stupid 18 year old who didn't know any better. I got a degree in something I love, art, which I know many of you will troll on and on about. But the fact is I was always told to get a degree in something you love, so I followed that advice. The school I went to was a liberal arts college, so I did not just study art, I also minored in sociology. + +Those four years left me with an estimated 100k in students loan debt from both federal and private loans. + +After college I decided to put personal interest before professional and moved back home (western Maryland) so that my girlfriend of 5 years (at the time) and I could get married. We both had jobs and both bought cars. We also took out a credit card to pay for a rather cheap wedding. + +I decided to go back to school for a little while and take some graphic design courses. I had planned to pay for it out of pocket, but once we moved into our own place, that became impossible. + +I was employed at a warehouse making $30,000 a year ($14/hour with solid 40 hour weeks). That warehouse closed which put me on unemployment for a month until I found another warehouse job that pays exactly the same. Having money to pay for a roof over my head, food on the table, and gas in my car is not an issue. + +Keeping personal priorities in mind my wife and I are expecting our first child in a few months. This has unfortunately put her out of work until after maternity leave. + +We have considered cutting back to one car so that she can stay home with our son (this saves money on child care and also reduces insurance, gas, and removes a car payment from out bills). + +Back to the issue at hand. My students loans Have been racking up interest and now sit at comfy $130k. I all but exhausted my forbearance. Add the 11k credit card and 10k left on my car and 15k on hers, our debit to income ratio is shot. + +I have been job hunting for something better ever sense I left school, but there just isn't anything that pays more 35k in my area for someone my age with no experience besides warehouse. + +So with a mountain of debt, a family to take care of, and no better job opportunities in site I see no hope of ever tackling my student loans. I know bankruptcy is near impossible, but is it something I should look into and if so, would I really have a chance of bringing my owed debt down to a manageable amount? + + +Edit: thank you to those who offered sound advice. I know I have made poor decisions in the past, I've come to terms with that. All I was seeking was a different way of thinking about how to get out of this hole. I've been stuck in my own head about my financial state; its fucked so why bother. But now I am more focused. As someone mentioned in a comment I am ready to bare this on my shoulders, all of these issues, both personal and financial are mine to deal with. + +Also please do not think that I am living in poverty. I'm not my wife and I are comfortable but things are going to get tight and I'm exploring all my options to make things better for our family. + Hello all! + +I think the sickness is just about gone finally, I will be monitoring myself this week to be doubly sure, but I think I am ok now! + +# Key Statistics (Overall) + +NOTE: I am using TradesViz which is so fantastic HOWEVER, the win rates are calculated based on trades and not executions. For instance, if I trade the same ticker over and over again, and have a 70% win rate on those trades BUT I have one big bad losing trade that counters all of the wins, it will appear as a 0% win rate. + +Again, reminder that the overall data is going to take quite some time to balance out as the first several weeks served as a testing period where I would do a lot of 1 share and very low leverage trades in an attempt to practice my strategy and the usage of the software. I would focus more on my weekly statistics to gauge my progress so far. I imagine by the end of this year, my overall statistics should be balanced. + +Account Net Worth: $64,417.23 (I took a $10,000 draw, I am going to try to make this last me 3 months. I shouldn't need to take another draw until late summer/early fall. The next goal is to pay down the remaining debt I have before I begin focusing on the tax bill.) + +Unrealized P/L: $596 + +Realized P/L: $19,957.91 + +P/L % Change: 13,906% + +Average P/L Per Day: $399.16 + +Win Rate: 60% + +Profit Factor: 3.714 + +**Positions:** + +GME Long 20 229.22 (Total gamble on a meme stock, will be closing this week) + +PTRA Long 2313 17.09 (Will continue to add to this company as it's my only investment) + +AMC Long 200 62.71 (Total gamble on a meme stock, will be closing this week) + +https://preview.redd.it/x00adbi8x1871.png?width=1340&format=png&auto=webp&s=387a65b0d198fb24725e739d8676c7162b81ef8a + +https://preview.redd.it/6wwc0u0bx1871.png?width=1353&format=png&auto=webp&s=690ab5be7b27ce527fc7a5ad370a52f7efa2477a + +https://preview.redd.it/kcvctlofx1871.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=87e00caea817b8a2a139e53ce0058b130c6f66ba + +https://preview.redd.it/khw661vhx1871.png?width=1261&format=png&auto=webp&s=ecc2afd2c6175cb79ac515f14cf7c440e538ba83 + +https://preview.redd.it/u6w7eqbjx1871.png?width=1256&format=png&auto=webp&s=71e7ac24f2a9ad83607af534d43d5c258441b7c3 + +# Week 12 + +Well, this week...was just sad. I was on fire all week and it wasn't until Friday that things went south. Not even a bad day, it was literally one bad trade the entire week that sent me way, way back, but boy did I learn some hard lessons this week. You're going to look at the P/L now and not think much of it...I encourage you to look at each day and then Friday. + +P/L: ($215.50) + +Win Rate: 79% + +[Monday 06/21](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/IDp1H4fr) + +P/L: $521.15 + +Win Rate: 100% + +[Tuesday 06/22](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/l5trRHD5) + +P/L: $649.47 + +Win Rate: 83.33% + +[Wednesday 06/23](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/TnMXVoQN) + +P/L: $466.40 + +Win Rate: 100% + +[Thursday 06/24](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/vO3uS927) + +P/L: $1,011.86 + +Win Rate: 80% + +[Friday 06/18](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/ibXVGehf) + +Win Rate: 0% (Like I mentioned before not really, win rate is based off of trades not executions) + +P/L: ($2,864.38) + +Well, this was unfortunate. I was having a fantastic week and I wasn't even using a ton of leverage. Friday, I decided to short SPCE after the FAA news came out and I was up around $750. I should have stopped there. I decided to take one more short position and it was in profit for a little, then it started moving against me and I kept moving my stop because we were just below VWAP and the assumption was all the volume was used on the selling side today, there won't be enough juice to break this back up. + +I was so, terribly wrong. + +Which is extra depressing because I have been calling this catalyst out for months now and not only did I not get to play into it, I played against it and payed the price. It did indeed break VWAP, in fact, it exploded through it and I ended up taking a $4,612.60 loss on that one trade. + +I started chipping away at it as quickly as I could but for some reason I couldn't switch from bear to bull mentally. At any rate, I got it down to around (2,400). I decided to take up one more big trade to try to get myself to a break even on the week and I lost another $1000 or so. + +I decided it was time to walk away and I did, especially since I was headed home to PA to visit for the weekend. I couldn't shake what happened and did something really stupid that ended up paying off...I started trading from my phone on the road. No need to lecture me, I know how incredibly dangerous and stupid this is but I certainly was not in the right state of mind and I did it anyways. + +I was able to make back around $700 this way getting my final P/L and losing $215 on the week. + +Not the worst outcome for a very important lesson, but still I could have had another incredible week and would be up around $14,000 on the month. For those who don't know, yes, I am beginning Week 13 of this journey, but I haven't really been using much leverage until June so most of my earnings are because I actually started trading this month instead of just training. + +# Psychology + +Well, I had to revisit [Zalesky's 25 point mantra](http://www.r-5.org/files/books/trading/schoolbooks/Douglas_E_Zalesky-The_25-point_Mantra-EN.pdf) and remind myself of several, very important rules: + +\#4 Never turn a winner into a loser + +\#5 Your biggest loser can't exceed your biggest winner + +\#10 Get out of your losers + +\#12 Don't hope and pray, if you do, you will lose + +\#17 Never take big losses, only a big loss can hurt you + +\#19 Hit singles, not homeruns + +What otherwise could have been a fantastic week went to shit on one trade. Not one day, not one week, one trade. This definitely hurt, not only because of the pain of losing, but what's worse is this was the catalyst I have been going on about that would send this thing to the next level. + +I also noticed a huge problem with rule #12. When you do find yourself hoping and praying, it fills you with hopium that the trade will come back for you. This is bad for obvious reasons, but the less obvious reason is what I experienced and have learned from. + +When you are filled with the hopium, it becomes exceedingly more difficult to switch roles. + +If you convince yourself that the trade will come back for you, it makes you blind to the fact that it is clearly moving the other way and if you just switch hats, then you can make back your loss and profit. + +By the time I decided to go long and not just scalp the run was virtually over. If I was able to recognize sooner that the trade was not coming back for me, not only would I have taken a smaller loss, but I would have had massive gains by reversing. This is something I intend on working on quite diligently. + +# Software + +I'm still absolutely loving TradesViz as my journaling software. I love this software and the company is fantastic. I am a big fan of monitoring my progress weekly and monthly and offered a suggestion and this is the second suggestion they have taken from me! They really do want to be the go to for journaling software and their customer service shows that through and through. So the new feature they added was a weekly tracking of P/L. On their main Daily Statistics page, if you filter by the week its not going to capture swing trades or anything opened before the date range you select, it will only show what is closed. So now in the calendar view it shows your weekly/monthly results. I will add another image here for you to see: + +[Calendar View](https://preview.redd.it/4y4bq0o542871.png?width=1303&format=png&auto=webp&s=a192dfe5c7f1f5223177ef6caf2d098a31633b41) + +[Summary Page \(It's literally right underneath the calendar\)](https://preview.redd.it/c57a3fv842871.png?width=262&format=png&auto=webp&s=10a8d99584eaa5a0319dee3bcfd3af6961538bb5) + +I'm still using TradeStation and the more I play with it the more I fall in love. I haven't tried many different pieces of software in terms of daytrading but with the ones I have tried this is without a doubt my favorite. + +**TL;DR:** Time to bring back some of my discipline, this very giving market has made me take on a lot of unnecessary risk. I was getting away with it for a while but I now have paid the price and do not intend on paying the price again. +I'm 23, and in under twelve months I've graduated college, started my first full time career, and have opened an investment portfolio. + +My friends and I are part of the car scene, and it's not uncommon to spend all of your spare change modifying your car. I've got friends who are sneakerheads that don't bat an eye at the next $300 release. Hell, up until recently I was considering a $600 pair of second-hand Yeezys. + +I've slowly noticed that it's harder to stomach the thought of mounting an exhaust on the car, or buying that next pair of shoes. Last year I would've been content dropping a chunk of change on a Balmain wallet, or a set of Philips Hue lightbulbs. This year, I'm not so sure. + +I know an expensive pair of shoes today will seem meaningless compared to what that $600 will be worth ten years from now. But it's not easy trading short term gratification with long term wealth. + +I'm embarrassed that I even have to ask this, but how did you first start learning how to separate material possessions from happiness? + +Im right at that tipping point. Net worth in the 200-300k range, just got that six figure job I was always dreaming about. Investments, emergency fund, primary home, etc all set up right where they should be by the guidance of this sub. I'm 29 and doing well! + +But goodness do I hate going in every day. 1 hour commute each way in traffic, coworkers at the new job are aweful and don't understand what they are doing. My tasking is extremely unfulfilling, for example I was given five days to prep for a 15 minute meeting with some guy down the hall. And there's almost no work. + +Gmail is blocked, my boss hates seeing people on phones, and doesn't allow telework or even the 9/80 schedule all other departments have. So I literally drive two hours a day to sit in a cube and stare at a wall for 8 hours. Its Office Space on steroids. + +So basically, I'm being overpaid and can hit FI really quick while doing nothing but watch my youth slip away. + +What would you do? How do you get through that hump of watching the returns pile but FI still seems so far away? +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +So many posts have people posting about their $100k+ jobs, which I will never earn since all choices in my life have been the wrong ones. It would be too costly and set me back too much to try to get a better earning degree. So do I have a chance? +Recently I started looking into attractively valued high quality companies. High quality being defined as low beta and showing monopolistic tendencies (thus high margins, consistent growth). One of the companies I found in this market segment was La Française des Jeux. + +# Business profile +La Française des Jeux (FDJ) is a lottery and betting operator in France worth around €7.2 billion. It's the second largest lottery in Europe and publicly listed on Euronext Paris. + +It generates profits through the differences in betted stakes and the payout. Some additional financial returns are gained through (short term) bonds on the stakes which are held until payout (somewhat similar to an insurance company who also get premiums - payouts + financial returns as their main business model). + +Currently it operates 2 main lines of business: +- Lottery +- Sports betting + +With 2 new segments: +- Added in Nov. 2022 - Online poker +- Recently added through yet to be completed acquisition - Online horse race betting + +# Current strength +FDJ holds exclusive rights in France until 2044 for their Point of Sale (PoS i.e. physical sale) lottery and sports betting segments. A legal monopoly is rarely seen in the investment landscape as those are generally state owned (like in the Netherlands for example). + +This has led to steady growth in the top and bottom line of the company, with recently improving margins as well (2021 EBITDA margin as % of revenue of 23.1%, target 25% by 2025). + +## Profitability +While margins are quite high and impressive the achieved return on equity certainly is something noteworthy. + +| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | (LTM) | +|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| +| 36.6% | 31.5% | 23.5% | 33.6% | 38.4% | 42.6% | + +As it is a financial firm one would expect higher returns but these are phenomenal returns on equity, without even gaining to much from financial returns on the stakes. + +# Future +FDJ is actively expanding into additional verticals like online poker and horse race betting. These are historically lower growth segments than sports betting but could provide some added diversification in calendar events. + +The online segments of FDJ are driving most of the growth as it's rapidly growing (market share is also expanding in sports betting) and management expects that growth to remain very high (22% CAGR in online stakes until 2025). + +Online betting currently is about 11.4% (2021) of total stakes, this is expected to ramp up to over 20% by 2025 due to the high growth rate. + +# Shareholders +There are 3 ‘irregular’ major shareholders on the register. These are: +- The French state +- Veterans associations +- Employee funds + +## The French state + +As the state grants exclusive operating rights to FDJ it is to be expected to see them on the register as they are granting legal monopolies in certain betting markets. The French state is known to partially own critical infrastructure like Engie owns among others. + +## Veterans associations + +Union Des Blesses De La Face Et La Tete (UBFT, union of the wounded in the face and head) is an association dedicated to helping French veterans, civilian casualties and public officials (policemen, firefighters etc.) who got wounded while in service. This non-profit is the second largest shareholder after the French state and gets most of its income from Francaise de Jeux. + +## Employee funds +Being a large French corporation seeing some employees on the register through a fund is also not uncommon. No shareholder dilution takes place due to the employee fund, or other shareholders, as share counts have remained steady since IPO at 191.0 million. + +# Valuation +I performed a simple DCF on FCF calculated by: +- management conversion ratio's of EBITDA to FCF. +- Historical trends in payout, operating costs etc. +- Management target for stakes growth. +- Terminal growth rate of 2%. + +Using NPV=0 I got to a discount rate (IRR) of around ~9%, which given the low correlation of the company with economic cycles and consistency, is very reasonable. + +For a more in depth look with supporting visuals I would refer you here where I also talk about the fiscal regime and the numbers with more detail: +https://youtu.be/JBEh3pA1dZg + +Disclaimer: +I have recently initiated a position in this company, as it's worth more than €7 billion I do not see any problem with posting it here as no retail investor will move the valuation. +I was wondering how people are doing evaluations in bulk, I've found many videos on different models, but they are one off. It would be awesome to be able to get each model into a column with a row for each company. Any tools people use? +Hi. + +&#x200B; + +I Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) calculations, one of the parameters are expected growth rate. How does value investors go about finding such figures? Do you look up a range of stock analysts' research (if so, which websites etc would you recommend?), and pick a number based on these? Or do you have some other means of coming up with expected growth rate? + +I see guys such as [Sven Carlin](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrTTBSUr0zhPU56UQljag5A) use one expected growth rate for the next five years, and another for the 5-10 year range, which seems logical but I have no idea where to even start doing this myself. +Do you have some process that you go through when analyzing a new stock? Or how do you make decision to buy a stock? Do you always take very similar steps? What are they? + +I remember reading about Buffet when he worked for Graham. They had some sheets they were filling in with numbers for each company and were making buying decisions based on that. + +From what I saw many people do a DCF for the stock to estimate value. This takes a bit of a time. Do you always do a DCF, do you you do something else as well? I read that you can do earnings \* (8.5 + 2 \* growth rate) to estimate value. + +Many people also read the annual reports / letters to investors, but I would start with that once numbers look good, right? + +Also how does a stock get to you? Do you go through some list of all stocks, or do you get some stock ideas from somewhere, like this forum? +What stocks are on your radar this week? + +What's in the news that's affecting the market? + +Celebrate your successes, rue your losses, or just chat with your fellow Value redditors! + +*(New Weekly Megathreads are posted every Monday at 0600 GMT.)* +**One sentence summary** + +Company is trading below net asset value without any debt (Market cap: \~$55MM). Their all assets are pure cash (\~$85MM) and they are planning to use that cash for loans in cannabis industry. They are planning to distribute almost all profits in dividends. + +&#x200B; + +**Silver Spike Investment Corp. (“SSIC”): Situation and Company Overview** + +SSIC is a Business Development Company (“BDC”) which recently IPO’d on the NASDAQ in February 2022 trading with ***negative enterprise value***. SSIC is one of a handful of NASDAQ-listed investment vehicles targeting deploying structured capital into the cannabis industry looking to generate mid-teens returns. Like other debt focused BDCs, SSIC’s investment mandate is to generate yield but to do so with a bit more flexibility than a REIT which must distribute its earnings to avoid corporate-level taxation. BDC’s typically trade on P/NAV and % yield metrics and analysis, and I would expect this psychology for SSIC as well. SSIC is an externally-managed BDC which means that SSIC itself really has no team other than its Board, and it is managed by an affiliate called Silver Spike Capital, LLC (“SSC”), which is where the investment team sits and gets paid. + +SSC was so eager to set up a public vehicle of this nature that SSC invested \~$63MM of cash in the \~$85MM IPO and owns \~72% of the shares outstanding and is contractually locked up until August 2022. That majority shareholder’s $63MM investment is now trading for only $41MM just two months later. Like a publicly-traded PE firm or hedge fund, SSC derives a fairly high 1.75% annual management fee on gross assets with some other reimbursements (e.g. incentive to scale and obtain leverage but drain on low AUM situations like this) as well as a 20% incentive fee on pre-incentive fee income over a 1.75% quarterly / 7% annualized hurdle, with a catchup. Not bad work if you can get it, and this sets an incentive to generate NAV growth of at least 7% or more. These fees are typically payable irrespective of the trading level of the BDC, which you can liken to an LP vehicle, where SSC is a GP. SSIC’s Board could theoretically fire SSC and try to liquidate, but it would owe high fees to SSC to do so, and I think that scenario is fairly unlikely so we can set aside this Ben Graham net-net visual. + +With a handful of peers including structured lenders and investors AFCG (AFC Gamma) and REFI (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.), with a cousin peer set in the publicy-traded cannabis REITs such as IIPR, NLCP and possibly PW, SSIC listed on the NASDAQ just in time for a broader market pull down, Russia/Ukraine, and Fed tightening. Also, for those not watching the cannabis industry closely, the global cannabis sector has also been decimated. MSOS, a reasonable proxy for public US cannabis companies, is down \~70% since its most recent peak in Feb. 2021. Other cannabis vehicles like SSIC attempted to hit the window to go public, but a number failed to get there and those which had the ability to are presumably on hold given market conditions. SSIC is managed by a team led by Scott Gordon which has experience in the cannabis space (operators, 2x SPAC promoters and investors) as well as traditional capital markets. + +Unlike other BDCs, based on what information is out there publicly, there are no existing loans to evaluate, criticize or praise since SSIC has just gone public. For all we know SSIC is comprised essentially 100% of cash, equivalent to \~$13.70 a share. Let me say that again—this is a NASDAQ-listed entity which is almost pure cash trading at a *negative enterprise value*, creating a great margin of safety. + +**Base Case** + +In this ‘throw the bathtub out’ moment, as investors struggle to gauge risk and determine whether this sell-off is tip of the iceberg or just another blip, a mini COVID panic which will subside, I believe SSIC is an asymmetric opportunity. Buying today allows you to buy into what may be a 100% cash vehicle at the bargain price of 65 cents on the dollar. With NAV around \~$13.70, SSIC trades around $9.00 at the time of this writing, just 65.6% of NAV. ***With reversion to a 1.0x P/NAV over a year, buying SSIC today would yield a 1.5x MOIC and a 53% IRR.*** + +&#x200B; + +**Upside Case** + +With the drawdown in the broader market with even more pain in the cannabis industry, I am excited if not outright jealous about SSIC’s positioning. Unlike other BDCs or funds, SSIC has raised fresh capital at exactly the right moment. While a BDC scaling certainly helps distribute overhead costs and improve net delivered yields and NAV growth, how many of us would like to go back to events of sudden market turndowns and have fresh capital to deploy at the top of the capital stack in a vehicle which could get \~50% leverage eventually? For those unfamiliar with cannabis, there are maybe 10-20 vehicles or funds which have AUM levels in the $50MM+ range. Even the formerly cash-rich public cannabis companies (Canadian or US) are all struggling with valuations and capital markets access, so they’re not in the lending game, and BofA and Blackstone are certainly nowhere close to coming into the space + +With \~$85MM in cash, I’m sure most here at VIC would scratch their head about why a micro-cap of this nature is so interesting but if you’re steeped in the cannabis space, this is an incredibly enviable position. A year ago, senior loans in the cannabis space were being done in the 6-12% IRR context, often with light covenants and vanilla cash interest payments. Today, that environment feels radically different. I would anticipate lenders such as SSIC would probably not even look at a deal less than a 10% IRR; they are probably stretching target returns today to high teens. For context, with capital raised and deployed mostly from 2019 through 2021, AFCG boasts a \~19% YTM on its 15-loan portfolio (\~12% of which is cash interest) and REFI markets a \~17% YTM on its 23-loan portfolio (\~14% cash+PIK yields). Net of expenses and any capital held back to grow NAV, let’s assume SSIC generates a \~10% yield on net assets of \~$85MM. As soon as that yield is generated (let’s assume it takes until end of Q3 to deploy which is a reasonable guide from around the IPO), you’d be generating a 15% current yield on today’s price. Ok, pretty good for senior cap stack risk. ***Held for 1 year and reverting to 1.0x P/NAV, your MOIC would improve to 1.64x and your IRR would improve to 66%.*** + +If you looked back over the last year, the peers didn’t always trade at NAV either. ***In fact, in better times, a P/NAV of 1.25x is quite possible. This would put you at a MOIC of 2.02x and an IRR of 105%.*** When Piper Sandler wrote their equity research initiation report, they noted peers were trading at an average of 2.2x P/NAV (though I personally find that to be far too rosy to underwrite). + +I don’t think further refinement of the upside case is necessary here, but another angle for upside is back-leverage. Like other BDCs which must operate in the confines of the 1940 Act, SSIC discusses a target 0.5x leverage ratio (e.g. $0.50 of debt for every $1.00 of equity). Typically, this leverage comes in as lower cost capital, allowing the BDC to recycle that capital in higher returning opportunities, thereby improving the ROE and dividend yield. This is one such reason why you could see P/NAVs exceed 1.0x academically because the buyer universe may simply price the BDC equity to a target yield, say 8%. Given this is the cannabis industry, which operates in contravention to US federal law, I was personally skeptical about FDIC-insured institutions offering such back leverage but on May 2, 2022, AFCG proved me wrong by getting $60MM-$100MM of such leverage. Naturally, leverage is a double-edged sword but for those concerned about an $80MM portfolio being sub-scale and NAV eroding from costs to run the platform, 50% back-leverage would allow \~$120MM of assets to cover essentially the same level of overhead. + +**Downside Case** + +Since SSIC is already so heavily below cash NAV, it does stretch the imagination to think of a fundamental reason why it should trade this low for prolonged periods of time. Even paying the costs to fire SSC and liquidating should keep that from being a long-term outcome. Nevertheless, BDCs have traded at wider discounts as high as 60% once in the last decade (vs. the 35% discount today). If you need a ‘Downside Case’ box to fill out in your investment process, I suppose you could use that but I think it skews the Base/Upside/Downside presentation more than warranted. + +More pragmatically, SSIC could go write a bunch of silly paper in terrible companies, justifying an erosion in NAV. If you are concerned about this, I think your best comfort will come in meeting the team and reviewing their track record. + +**BDCs: Current Trading Context** + +According to CEF Advisors, a data source for BDCs and other similar investment vehicles, as of 5/2/22, the average BDC trades at a 7.7% discount to NAV with average yields in the 8.3% area, with equity-oriented BDCs gapped out to a 37.3% discount to NAV and debt-focused BDCs at a 5.0% discount to NAV. Presumably the discount for equity BDCs is due to a belief that NAV isn’t marked properly, NAV will decline, a large liquidity discount is merited, or other reasons. I would also note that the average debt BDC has a market cap of \~$1.3Bn, significantly in excess of SSIC’s market cap of <$60MM. + +Nevertheless, at a 35% discount to NAV, SSIC is clearly trading in line with the equity-oriented BDCs without good reason. However, SSIC is focused on the debt opportunity in the cannabis space and as of the IPO in February, just 3 months ago, held 100% cash. I also believe, based on the yields of the two most comparable cannabis lending/investment peers to SSIC, AFCG at \~14% and REFI at \~9%, SSIC should be able to generate yields even greater than the BDC average and therefore should actually merit a minor premium to NAV. This premium is due to both the scarcity value of capital in cannabis, scarcity of NASDAQ-listed vehicles to deploy capital into cannabis (less relevant when trading at a steep discount to NAV though), and the 200-500bps of excess return which feels present in the cannabis space relative to other industries given the regulatory quirks of the sector. + +**BDCs: Historical Trading Context** + +For the dinosaurs amongst us, we can also look to historical P/NAV levels of the BDC market in general. Going back to 2012, there were two periods where P/NAVs declined to wider levels. In early 2016, we saw discounts of \~20% and in March 2020 when COVID broke out, the sector gapped out to \~60% discounts before returning to slight premiums by mid-2021 (likely along with most everything else). Otherwise, the sector generally trades near a P/NAV of \~1x Given the BDC composite I looked at from CEF data shows the sector at a \~8% discount, we are on the cheaper side of history but certainly not at some bombed out low. *However, most of these declines come with periods where faith in NAV or the trajectory of NAV is properly or improperly questioned*. In the case of SSIC, we are talking about cash trading at a discount, not a loan portfolio deployed during good times and being marked in bad times. In fact, quite the opposite—SSIC will be able to deploy during high capital cost periods and should be favorably re-rated during the next time Mr. Market gets happier. + +**Cannabis Lending Vehicles: Current Trading Context** + +AFCG and REFI are not technically BDCs, thus they do not show up in databases like the CEF Advisors data shown above. Nevertheless, AFCG and REFI are the most pertinent comps and their business models are very similar, but AFCG and REFI used a REIT structure to climb the great wall which is an organization which touches US cannabis in some manner trading on the NASDAQ/NYSE. Using AFCG’s published book value from 12/31/21 of $16.61 and excluding any earnings since 12/31/21, AFCG trades at 0.97x P/NAV. My math on REFI suggests book value of $15.07 (a little below their 10k’s stated $15.13), which suggests a P/NAV of 1.11x.  So, the two cannabis peers, which admittedly have deployed portfolios and yield track records, are still trading at 0.97x – 1.11x P/NAV, a large premium to SSIC’s P/NAV of 0.65x where NAV is just cash. I have some perspective around the value of 'book' at AFCG and REFI which I won't share here. Let me just say that I don't think cash should be worth 35% less than the face value of AFCG and REFI's loans, and arguably this cash being freshly deployed during an industry downturn will be better paper (economically, structurally, covenant-wise, etc.). + +**Catalysts to Improvement in P/NAV / Why does this exist? :** + +As SSIC is relatively young, its presence in various databases is still forthcoming. Stifel (Hold; $14 price target) and Piper Sandler (Overweight; $17 price target) did initiate coverage on the name so that catalyst is already out there, but there are a few places like the CEF databases as well as Yahoo!Finance or Bloomberg which don’t yet have any yield data or dividend track record to post. I suspect that will help a little and should come out gradually in the coming months or quarters. Nevertheless, I think the biggest catalysts will be SSIC deploying its capital, generating yield, building its track record, maybe issuing equity (at prices > 1.0x NAV) and eventually obtaining back-leverage. + +Beyond that and standard market catalysts, US federal legalization likely could swing P/NAV in a positive fashion. While there are pros & cons to the long-term fundamentals (pros being SSIC accessing cheaper capital; cons being increased competition in providing capital to the industry), there is no doubt that retail and institutional investor interest waxes and wanes around rumors in DC about Schumer’s new cannabis legalization agenda or a Republican-led solution. + +As I think through why this discount exists, I half-fear that SSIC wrote some god awful loan to the worst operator in the space and only the \~1,000-2,000 shares that trade a day know about it and not me. While that is possible, I think the situation here is pretty transparent. The float is very thin with 72% of SSIC owned by SSC. That leaves only \~$15MM of float up for grabs. Volumes are low, averaging around 10,000 shares a day, so you’ll have to be patient if you want in or out. +Bank of America research reports have valuation tables where they list the P/E, EV/EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow Yield for recent years, the current year, and the next few years (forecasts). How do you decide how much weight to give these three measures when deciding whether a stock is cheap? +Hello. + +I've been doing some research on companies with good financials and, with the filters that I chose, I found a considerable amount of options from the homebuilding sector. + +I'm talking about companies like D. R. Horton (DHI), Meritage Homes (MTH), KB Home (KBH), PulteGroup (PHM), Lennar Corp (LEN), and a few related others. + +Based on a pure fundamentals view, I think most of them are good options. However, I'm not from the U.S. and I have no idea how is the housing/real estate market over there right now. + +What's your opinion? Do you think that is a good idea to invest on companies from the homebuilding and real estate sector? + +From a pure numerical perspective, I'm really inclined to buy stocks on D. R. Horton, but I'd like to get some point of view from someone that's more inside the business than I am. +A lot of the companies I am vetting have seen their FCF numbers drop because of an alarming rise in inventories - both finished goods and WIP. This is across industries. Here are a few examples (days inventory) + + +$LRCX: 118 in '19 to 130 in '22. +$SWK: 88 in '19 to 168 in '22. +$LOW: 90 in '19 to 105 TTM. +$GRMN: 144 in '19 to 207 TTM. +$CMI: 70 in '19 to 86 TTM. + + +Do y'all have thoughts/opinions on this? Obviously, post-covid supply chain problems caused the spike, but they have persisted for a long time. Do you see it resolving slowly, or are we facing a few tough quarters of write-downs or price pressure? +Hi guys! + +Today I'm going to be covering a massive tech-giant called Microsoft. They have a market cap of 1.74T and are the second-largest company in the US. I'm going to do a deep-dive into the fundamentals and catalysts that could make Microsoft a good buy. As always, a TL;DR is at the bottom and if you have any companies you want to see me do a DD on, leave them in the comments. + +**Business** + +Microsoft is a well-known diversified technology company. Most consumers are familiar with their windows operating system, which has a 75% desktop OS market share as of 2020 ***\[1\]***, their Microsoft Surface Laptop, which they've advertised aggressively, and their Office 365 productivity suite, which is commonly used in schools and businesses alike. + +Their operations can be broken up into 3 broad categories: Productivity and Business Processes (32.44% of revenue), Intelligent Cloud (33.82% of revenue), and Personal Computing (33.74% of revenue). Let's break these segments down! + +**Productivity and Business Processes** + +This segment includes Microsoft's Office product line, LinkedIn, and Dynamics. + +Office saw stellar growth during the pandemic. In Microsoft's 10-K filed in June of 2020, we can see that Office revenue grew by 4.5B or 15%. Office accounts for 64.63% of this segment's revenue. I don't see all that much future growth potential here. Google's productivity suite will cut into margins and makes the moat here very small. While Office Commercial could be alright, Office Consumer will probably get blown out of the water by Google's free product offering. + +LinkedIn is another pandemic out-performer. This product grew revenue 1.3B or 20% in 2020 and currently accounts for 14% of this segment's revenue. There's a lot of unrealized potential here and I want to go a little in-depth here because I think this is overlooked by a lot of people. + +Think about the amount of data LinkedIn has for a second. You **willingly** enter in: your current place of residence, your age, your current place of work, your past working experience, your prior education, your interests, what skills you have, etc. This is a data *GOLDMINE.* All the information Google spends billions on developing algos to infer about you is offered up to Microsoft by over 740 million members **\[2\]**. If Microsoft identifies this as an opportunity they'd be willing to pursue, it could be huge. + +Finally, there's Microsoft Dynamics. I feel so-so about this product. It has fierce competitors who dominate the entire CRM industry (namely Salesforce with 19%+ market share), and I just don't think they have a superior offering here. + +**Intelligent Cloud** + +This is what many people end up talking about the most when it comes to Microsoft. As someone with a pretty decent amount of cloud knowledge, I can say with confidence it'll be a two-horse game in the future with AWS and Azure dominating. The problem with AWS is actually the fact that they're a subsidiary of Amazon! + +If you're a retailer and you're looking to pick a cloud provider, you can't use AWS because you'll be supporting a direct competitor of yours. As a result, many of these companies will end up taking their money to Microsoft. It's also worth noting that the government has shown a preference to use Azure in the past when it comes to military contracts. + +**Personal Computing** + +This segment includes Windows OS, the Surface Laptop, Xbox, and their Search engines. + +I don't expect that much growth here. Windows will continue to grow by 2-4%, their search engine will probably stagnate (I'm kind of shocked people actually use Edge/Bing), Xbox will continue to lose ground to Playstation, and Surface's growth will slow. + +**Business TL;DR** + +Future growth will be driven by Azure and perhaps LinkedIn. + +**Revenues** + +Microsoft brought in revenue of 153.28B in FY 2020. This represents a 14.18% gain YoY, a 48.90% 3 year gain, and a 74.02% increase from 5 years ago. These increases are very impressive considering the age and size of Microsoft. + +Switching over to Net Income, we see a 2020 total of 51.31B. This is up 15.77% YoY, 271% in the last 3 years, and up 338% since 5 years ago. My takeaway here is similar to the one I made for revenue. The key difference here is that NI has been much more inconsistent. + +**Margins** + +Microsoft currently has a net margin of 33.47%, the highest it's been in more than 15 years (how far back my data goes). This margin compares well with Apple's 21.73%, Amazon's 5.53%, Netflix's 11.05%, and Google's 22.06%. The only FAANG company that has a higher margin than Microsoft is Facebook with a 33.90% margin. Seeing as Facebook operates as a software company only, I'm not surprised. + +**Assets/Liabilities** + +||Total Assets|Total Liabilities|Cash on Hand|Long-term debt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|Value ($)|304B|174B|131B|55B| + +Microsoft currently has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42 and a current ratio of 2.58. In case you're unaware, the current ratio is a way to measure how able a company is to pay back debt. A current ratio of over 1.5 is generally considered good. + +It's also worth noting that Microsoft's Cash on Hand can cover its short-term liabilities, which is always a plus. + +**Free Cash Flow/Buybacks** + +As of 6/30/20 (the last time they filed their 10K), Microsoft generates 45.25B in Free Cash Flow. This represents an 18.22% gain YoY, a 44.16% 3 year gain, and a 90.67% 5 year gain. Because Microsoft pays a below-market dividend, they end up spending that Free Cash Flow on share buybacks. Since FY 2019, Microsoft has spent more on share buybacks than they have on dividends ***\[3\]*** and has netted shareholders billions. + +**Price Ratios/Other** + +|Ratio|Microsoft|Apple|Google|Amazon|"Good Value" for Sector| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|PE Ratio (TTM)|34.33x|32.50x|34.53x|73.62x|<30x| +|P/B Ratio|13.34x|30.42x|6.14x|16.58x|<7x| +|P/S Ratio|11.78x|7.28x|8.17x|4.11x|<7x| +|P/FCF Ratio|35.79x|26.53x|34.75x|51.15x|<30x| +|ROE|42.19%|90.59%|19.03%|27.07%|\>25%| +|Leverage|2.5x|4.6x|1.4x|3.4x|Depends| +|3-year revenue growth|48.90%|23.06%|64.66%|116.85%|Depends| + +**PE Ratio** + +I said a "good" number for the sector was under 30x. I usually look for PEs under 15-20x, but you do have to pay for growth. In this section, nobody was under this threshold. Considering we're in a mature bull-market, I can't say I'm surprised. With that being said, Microsoft narrowly beat out Google to have the second-lowest PE at 34.33x. + +**P/B Ratio** + +I said a good P/B Ratio for this sector was under 7x. Very high, I know, but keep in mind these are good values for the *technology* sector. That being said, only Google came in under my good value while the rest weren't even close. Microsoft had the second-lowest P/B at 13.34x. So far, not so good. + +**P/S Ratio** + +I thought a good P/S ratio here would be under 7x (same as the P/B cutoff). This time, we saw both Google and Amazon qualify with Apple narrowly missing the cutoff. Microsoft ended up having the highest P/S ratio at 11.78x. Overall, P/S ratios were actually decent. + +**P/FCF Ratio** + +I identified under 30x to be a good multiple for this sector. Sadly, we're right back to where we were before, with only Apple qualifying and the rest being pretty far off. Microsoft had the second-worst P/FCF ratio at 35.79x. + +**ROE/Leverage/Revenue Growth** + +Microsoft: If you're going to have poor price ratios, the least you can do is be efficient at generating capital. A 42.19% ROE while maintaining reasonable leverage considering their revenue growth rate is impressive. This is one area where Microsoft actually looks pretty attractive. + +Apple: Not a big fan of the numbers here. They strike me as over-levered and a future slow-grower. + +Google: They have the lowest ROE of the bunch, but they're also the least levered. Considering the amount of growth they've had, the only way I could get behind this little leverage would be if management expected stagnation over the coming years. + +Amazon: Amazon is very solid in this area. They have a reasonable amount of leverage considering expected future growth and are pretty efficient at generating capital. + +Overall, Microsoft is good at generating capital and is well-levered considering expected and past growth rates. + +**Moderate DCF Valuation** + +Assuming a 15% 5-year revenue CAGR, an 8% discount rate, a 4% perpetual growth rate, and a 46% EBITDA Margin, Microsoft has an FV of $212.22 (upside of -10.1%). + +**Bull Case** + +In my bull case, I'm assuming Microsoft successfully monetizes LinkedIn, and Azure growth is faster than expected. I'm assuming a 17% 5-year revenue CAGR, an 8% discount rate, a 4% perpetual growth rate, and a 47% EBITDA Margin. Using these parameters, I got an FV of $270.80 (14.8% upside). + +I think the FV is probably between the current price and this bull case. + +**Bear Case** + +Don't worry, this won't be a Cathie Wood bear case! + +In this scenario, I'm assuming Azure loses market share, and Office growth stagnates. I think fair parameters in this scenario would be a 7% revenue CAGR, an 8% discount rate, a 4% perpetual growth rate, and a 45% EBITDA Margin. In this scenario, I got an FV of $168.89 (-28.4% upside). + +I find this bear case highly unlikely. In my opinion, the idea that Azure growth will slow is misguided. + +**Risks** + +1. **Office loses market share:** I've been talking about this one throughout the DD because I think it's probably a very likely scenario. The average consumer is going to prefer the Google Productivity Suite over Office because it's free and offers products equivalent in quality. If this were to happen, Office Commercial (Office for businesses and schools) would probably remain relatively intact. +2. **Azure gets trounced**: As I said in the previous section, I find this scenario very unlikely. It would require GCP being worth a dang or everyone snuggling up to Amazon. As I said before, a lot of companies won't go with AWS because it would be supporting a competitor and I don't think the people running GCP will be able to get their ducks in a row. +3. **Rotation into Value:** If bond yields were to continue rising rapidly, a flight to safety could ensue that would cause a selloff in tech stocks such as Microsoft. +4. **Regulation:** While I don't see any regulation risk for Microsoft in particular, if any of the FAANG stocks were to get hit with an anti-trust violation, it would send big-cap tech stocks into a tailspin. + +**Conclusion/TL;DR** + +While Microsoft is a great company with large amounts of growth ahead of it, the current valuation is frothy and there isn't enough of a margin of safety to justify an investment. + +**Sources** + +[**\[1\] = Microsoft Windows Figure**](https://www.statista.com/statistics/218089/global-market-share-of-windows-7/) + +[**\[2\] = LinkedIn User Number Figure**](https://about.linkedin.com/#:~:text=About%20LinkedIn) + +[**\[3\] = Share Buyback/Dividend Comparison**](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/trended/cash-returned.aspx) +My current portfolio is composed of growth, value, and dividend stocks. Certain companies such as Microsoft I’ve held for almost 3 years and I will continue to hold for a few more years especially given their position in the industry (bullish thesis not provided here). + +Recently, I spoke to a friend of mine who is new to the stock market and she said that she wanted to hold the stocks that she bought long-term. However, when the market started to decline, she started panicking saying that she’s very worried because the price of her shares have declined. I told her that she does not need to worry if she’s holding a “good” company long-term since the price will recover. This didn’t ease her worries though. + +Such reactions seem to be more common right now from what I’ve been reading on Reddit. People are worried about stock prices even though they claim to be holding long. + +So the question is, what exactly does “holding long” mean to you? + +PS - I know that MSFT is not a value company. I simply wanted to use it as an example of me holding a company long-term. + +PS#2: If you’re one of the people who claim to want to hold long but are panicking right now, just take a deep breath. “Good” businesses will weather this storm. +**One sentence summary** + +Company is trading below net asset value without any debt (Market cap: \~$55MM). Their all assets are pure cash (\~$85MM) and they are planning to use that cash for loans in cannabis industry. They are planning to distribute almost all profits in dividends. + +&#x200B; + +**Silver Spike Investment Corp. (“SSIC”): Situation and Company Overview** + +SSIC is a Business Development Company (“BDC”) which recently IPO’d on the NASDAQ in February 2022 trading with ***negative enterprise value***. SSIC is one of a handful of NASDAQ-listed investment vehicles targeting deploying structured capital into the cannabis industry looking to generate mid-teens returns. Like other debt focused BDCs, SSIC’s investment mandate is to generate yield but to do so with a bit more flexibility than a REIT which must distribute its earnings to avoid corporate-level taxation. BDC’s typically trade on P/NAV and % yield metrics and analysis, and I would expect this psychology for SSIC as well. SSIC is an externally-managed BDC which means that SSIC itself really has no team other than its Board, and it is managed by an affiliate called Silver Spike Capital, LLC (“SSC”), which is where the investment team sits and gets paid. + +SSC was so eager to set up a public vehicle of this nature that SSC invested \~$63MM of cash in the \~$85MM IPO and owns \~72% of the shares outstanding and is contractually locked up until August 2022. That majority shareholder’s $63MM investment is now trading for only $41MM just two months later. Like a publicly-traded PE firm or hedge fund, SSC derives a fairly high 1.75% annual management fee on gross assets with some other reimbursements (e.g. incentive to scale and obtain leverage but drain on low AUM situations like this) as well as a 20% incentive fee on pre-incentive fee income over a 1.75% quarterly / 7% annualized hurdle, with a catchup. Not bad work if you can get it, and this sets an incentive to generate NAV growth of at least 7% or more. These fees are typically payable irrespective of the trading level of the BDC, which you can liken to an LP vehicle, where SSC is a GP. SSIC’s Board could theoretically fire SSC and try to liquidate, but it would owe high fees to SSC to do so, and I think that scenario is fairly unlikely so we can set aside this Ben Graham net-net visual. + +With a handful of peers including structured lenders and investors AFCG (AFC Gamma) and REFI (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.), with a cousin peer set in the publicy-traded cannabis REITs such as IIPR, NLCP and possibly PW, SSIC listed on the NASDAQ just in time for a broader market pull down, Russia/Ukraine, and Fed tightening. Also, for those not watching the cannabis industry closely, the global cannabis sector has also been decimated. MSOS, a reasonable proxy for public US cannabis companies, is down \~70% since its most recent peak in Feb. 2021. Other cannabis vehicles like SSIC attempted to hit the window to go public, but a number failed to get there and those which had the ability to are presumably on hold given market conditions. SSIC is managed by a team led by Scott Gordon which has experience in the cannabis space (operators, 2x SPAC promoters and investors) as well as traditional capital markets. + +Unlike other BDCs, based on what information is out there publicly, there are no existing loans to evaluate, criticize or praise since SSIC has just gone public. For all we know SSIC is comprised essentially 100% of cash, equivalent to \~$13.70 a share. Let me say that again—this is a NASDAQ-listed entity which is almost pure cash trading at a *negative enterprise value*, creating a great margin of safety. + +**Base Case** + +In this ‘throw the bathtub out’ moment, as investors struggle to gauge risk and determine whether this sell-off is tip of the iceberg or just another blip, a mini COVID panic which will subside, I believe SSIC is an asymmetric opportunity. Buying today allows you to buy into what may be a 100% cash vehicle at the bargain price of 65 cents on the dollar. With NAV around \~$13.70, SSIC trades around $9.00 at the time of this writing, just 65.6% of NAV. ***With reversion to a 1.0x P/NAV over a year, buying SSIC today would yield a 1.5x MOIC and a 53% IRR.*** + +&#x200B; + +**Upside Case** + +With the drawdown in the broader market with even more pain in the cannabis industry, I am excited if not outright jealous about SSIC’s positioning. Unlike other BDCs or funds, SSIC has raised fresh capital at exactly the right moment. While a BDC scaling certainly helps distribute overhead costs and improve net delivered yields and NAV growth, how many of us would like to go back to events of sudden market turndowns and have fresh capital to deploy at the top of the capital stack in a vehicle which could get \~50% leverage eventually? For those unfamiliar with cannabis, there are maybe 10-20 vehicles or funds which have AUM levels in the $50MM+ range. Even the formerly cash-rich public cannabis companies (Canadian or US) are all struggling with valuations and capital markets access, so they’re not in the lending game, and BofA and Blackstone are certainly nowhere close to coming into the space + +With \~$85MM in cash, I’m sure most here at VIC would scratch their head about why a micro-cap of this nature is so interesting but if you’re steeped in the cannabis space, this is an incredibly enviable position. A year ago, senior loans in the cannabis space were being done in the 6-12% IRR context, often with light covenants and vanilla cash interest payments. Today, that environment feels radically different. I would anticipate lenders such as SSIC would probably not even look at a deal less than a 10% IRR; they are probably stretching target returns today to high teens. For context, with capital raised and deployed mostly from 2019 through 2021, AFCG boasts a \~19% YTM on its 15-loan portfolio (\~12% of which is cash interest) and REFI markets a \~17% YTM on its 23-loan portfolio (\~14% cash+PIK yields). Net of expenses and any capital held back to grow NAV, let’s assume SSIC generates a \~10% yield on net assets of \~$85MM. As soon as that yield is generated (let’s assume it takes until end of Q3 to deploy which is a reasonable guide from around the IPO), you’d be generating a 15% current yield on today’s price. Ok, pretty good for senior cap stack risk. ***Held for 1 year and reverting to 1.0x P/NAV, your MOIC would improve to 1.64x and your IRR would improve to 66%.*** + +If you looked back over the last year, the peers didn’t always trade at NAV either. ***In fact, in better times, a P/NAV of 1.25x is quite possible. This would put you at a MOIC of 2.02x and an IRR of 105%.*** When Piper Sandler wrote their equity research initiation report, they noted peers were trading at an average of 2.2x P/NAV (though I personally find that to be far too rosy to underwrite). + +I don’t think further refinement of the upside case is necessary here, but another angle for upside is back-leverage. Like other BDCs which must operate in the confines of the 1940 Act, SSIC discusses a target 0.5x leverage ratio (e.g. $0.50 of debt for every $1.00 of equity). Typically, this leverage comes in as lower cost capital, allowing the BDC to recycle that capital in higher returning opportunities, thereby improving the ROE and dividend yield. This is one such reason why you could see P/NAVs exceed 1.0x academically because the buyer universe may simply price the BDC equity to a target yield, say 8%. Given this is the cannabis industry, which operates in contravention to US federal law, I was personally skeptical about FDIC-insured institutions offering such back leverage but on May 2, 2022, AFCG proved me wrong by getting $60MM-$100MM of such leverage. Naturally, leverage is a double-edged sword but for those concerned about an $80MM portfolio being sub-scale and NAV eroding from costs to run the platform, 50% back-leverage would allow \~$120MM of assets to cover essentially the same level of overhead. + +**Downside Case** + +Since SSIC is already so heavily below cash NAV, it does stretch the imagination to think of a fundamental reason why it should trade this low for prolonged periods of time. Even paying the costs to fire SSC and liquidating should keep that from being a long-term outcome. Nevertheless, BDCs have traded at wider discounts as high as 60% once in the last decade (vs. the 35% discount today). If you need a ‘Downside Case’ box to fill out in your investment process, I suppose you could use that but I think it skews the Base/Upside/Downside presentation more than warranted. + +More pragmatically, SSIC could go write a bunch of silly paper in terrible companies, justifying an erosion in NAV. If you are concerned about this, I think your best comfort will come in meeting the team and reviewing their track record. + +**BDCs: Current Trading Context** + +According to CEF Advisors, a data source for BDCs and other similar investment vehicles, as of 5/2/22, the average BDC trades at a 7.7% discount to NAV with average yields in the 8.3% area, with equity-oriented BDCs gapped out to a 37.3% discount to NAV and debt-focused BDCs at a 5.0% discount to NAV. Presumably the discount for equity BDCs is due to a belief that NAV isn’t marked properly, NAV will decline, a large liquidity discount is merited, or other reasons. I would also note that the average debt BDC has a market cap of \~$1.3Bn, significantly in excess of SSIC’s market cap of <$60MM. + +Nevertheless, at a 35% discount to NAV, SSIC is clearly trading in line with the equity-oriented BDCs without good reason. However, SSIC is focused on the debt opportunity in the cannabis space and as of the IPO in February, just 3 months ago, held 100% cash. I also believe, based on the yields of the two most comparable cannabis lending/investment peers to SSIC, AFCG at \~14% and REFI at \~9%, SSIC should be able to generate yields even greater than the BDC average and therefore should actually merit a minor premium to NAV. This premium is due to both the scarcity value of capital in cannabis, scarcity of NASDAQ-listed vehicles to deploy capital into cannabis (less relevant when trading at a steep discount to NAV though), and the 200-500bps of excess return which feels present in the cannabis space relative to other industries given the regulatory quirks of the sector. + +**BDCs: Historical Trading Context** + +For the dinosaurs amongst us, we can also look to historical P/NAV levels of the BDC market in general. Going back to 2012, there were two periods where P/NAVs declined to wider levels. In early 2016, we saw discounts of \~20% and in March 2020 when COVID broke out, the sector gapped out to \~60% discounts before returning to slight premiums by mid-2021 (likely along with most everything else). Otherwise, the sector generally trades near a P/NAV of \~1x Given the BDC composite I looked at from CEF data shows the sector at a \~8% discount, we are on the cheaper side of history but certainly not at some bombed out low. *However, most of these declines come with periods where faith in NAV or the trajectory of NAV is properly or improperly questioned*. In the case of SSIC, we are talking about cash trading at a discount, not a loan portfolio deployed during good times and being marked in bad times. In fact, quite the opposite—SSIC will be able to deploy during high capital cost periods and should be favorably re-rated during the next time Mr. Market gets happier. + +**Cannabis Lending Vehicles: Current Trading Context** + +AFCG and REFI are not technically BDCs, thus they do not show up in databases like the CEF Advisors data shown above. Nevertheless, AFCG and REFI are the most pertinent comps and their business models are very similar, but AFCG and REFI used a REIT structure to climb the great wall which is an organization which touches US cannabis in some manner trading on the NASDAQ/NYSE. Using AFCG’s published book value from 12/31/21 of $16.61 and excluding any earnings since 12/31/21, AFCG trades at 0.97x P/NAV. My math on REFI suggests book value of $15.07 (a little below their 10k’s stated $15.13), which suggests a P/NAV of 1.11x.  So, the two cannabis peers, which admittedly have deployed portfolios and yield track records, are still trading at 0.97x – 1.11x P/NAV, a large premium to SSIC’s P/NAV of 0.65x where NAV is just cash. I have some perspective around the value of 'book' at AFCG and REFI which I won't share here. Let me just say that I don't think cash should be worth 35% less than the face value of AFCG and REFI's loans, and arguably this cash being freshly deployed during an industry downturn will be better paper (economically, structurally, covenant-wise, etc.). + +**Catalysts to Improvement in P/NAV / Why does this exist? :** + +As SSIC is relatively young, its presence in various databases is still forthcoming. Stifel (Hold; $14 price target) and Piper Sandler (Overweight; $17 price target) did initiate coverage on the name so that catalyst is already out there, but there are a few places like the CEF databases as well as Yahoo!Finance or Bloomberg which don’t yet have any yield data or dividend track record to post. I suspect that will help a little and should come out gradually in the coming months or quarters. Nevertheless, I think the biggest catalysts will be SSIC deploying its capital, generating yield, building its track record, maybe issuing equity (at prices > 1.0x NAV) and eventually obtaining back-leverage. + +Beyond that and standard market catalysts, US federal legalization likely could swing P/NAV in a positive fashion. While there are pros & cons to the long-term fundamentals (pros being SSIC accessing cheaper capital; cons being increased competition in providing capital to the industry), there is no doubt that retail and institutional investor interest waxes and wanes around rumors in DC about Schumer’s new cannabis legalization agenda or a Republican-led solution. + +As I think through why this discount exists, I half-fear that SSIC wrote some god awful loan to the worst operator in the space and only the \~1,000-2,000 shares that trade a day know about it and not me. While that is possible, I think the situation here is pretty transparent. The float is very thin with 72% of SSIC owned by SSC. That leaves only \~$15MM of float up for grabs. Volumes are low, averaging around 10,000 shares a day, so you’ll have to be patient if you want in or out. +Hi guys! + +Today I'm going to be covering a massive tech-giant called Microsoft. They have a market cap of 1.74T and are the second-largest company in the US. I'm going to do a deep-dive into the fundamentals and catalysts that could make Microsoft a good buy. As always, a TL;DR is at the bottom and if you have any companies you want to see me do a DD on, leave them in the comments. + +**Business** + +Microsoft is a well-known diversified technology company. Most consumers are familiar with their windows operating system, which has a 75% desktop OS market share as of 2020 ***\[1\]***, their Microsoft Surface Laptop, which they've advertised aggressively, and their Office 365 productivity suite, which is commonly used in schools and businesses alike. + +Their operations can be broken up into 3 broad categories: Productivity and Business Processes (32.44% of revenue), Intelligent Cloud (33.82% of revenue), and Personal Computing (33.74% of revenue). Let's break these segments down! + +**Productivity and Business Processes** + +This segment includes Microsoft's Office product line, LinkedIn, and Dynamics. + +Office saw stellar growth during the pandemic. In Microsoft's 10-K filed in June of 2020, we can see that Office revenue grew by 4.5B or 15%. Office accounts for 64.63% of this segment's revenue. I don't see all that much future growth potential here. Google's productivity suite will cut into margins and makes the moat here very small. While Office Commercial could be alright, Office Consumer will probably get blown out of the water by Google's free product offering. + +LinkedIn is another pandemic out-performer. This product grew revenue 1.3B or 20% in 2020 and currently accounts for 14% of this segment's revenue. There's a lot of unrealized potential here and I want to go a little in-depth here because I think this is overlooked by a lot of people. + +Think about the amount of data LinkedIn has for a second. You **willingly** enter in: your current place of residence, your age, your current place of work, your past working experience, your prior education, your interests, what skills you have, etc. This is a data *GOLDMINE.* All the information Google spends billions on developing algos to infer about you is offered up to Microsoft by over 740 million members **\[2\]**. If Microsoft identifies this as an opportunity they'd be willing to pursue, it could be huge. + +Finally, there's Microsoft Dynamics. I feel so-so about this product. It has fierce competitors who dominate the entire CRM industry (namely Salesforce with 19%+ market share), and I just don't think they have a superior offering here. + +**Intelligent Cloud** + +This is what many people end up talking about the most when it comes to Microsoft. As someone with a pretty decent amount of cloud knowledge, I can say with confidence it'll be a two-horse game in the future with AWS and Azure dominating. The problem with AWS is actually the fact that they're a subsidiary of Amazon! + +If you're a retailer and you're looking to pick a cloud provider, you can't use AWS because you'll be supporting a direct competitor of yours. As a result, many of these companies will end up taking their money to Microsoft. It's also worth noting that the government has shown a preference to use Azure in the past when it comes to military contracts. + +**Personal Computing** + +This segment includes Windows OS, the Surface Laptop, Xbox, and their Search engines. + +I don't expect that much growth here. Windows will continue to grow by 2-4%, their search engine will probably stagnate (I'm kind of shocked people actually use Edge/Bing), Xbox will continue to lose ground to Playstation, and Surface's growth will slow. + +**Business TL;DR** + +Future growth will be driven by Azure and perhaps LinkedIn. + +**Revenues** + +Microsoft brought in revenue of 153.28B in FY 2020. This represents a 14.18% gain YoY, a 48.90% 3 year gain, and a 74.02% increase from 5 years ago. These increases are very impressive considering the age and size of Microsoft. + +Switching over to Net Income, we see a 2020 total of 51.31B. This is up 15.77% YoY, 271% in the last 3 years, and up 338% since 5 years ago. My takeaway here is similar to the one I made for revenue. The key difference here is that NI has been much more inconsistent. + +**Margins** + +Microsoft currently has a net margin of 33.47%, the highest it's been in more than 15 years (how far back my data goes). This margin compares well with Apple's 21.73%, Amazon's 5.53%, Netflix's 11.05%, and Google's 22.06%. The only FAANG company that has a higher margin than Microsoft is Facebook with a 33.90% margin. Seeing as Facebook operates as a software company only, I'm not surprised. + +**Assets/Liabilities** + +||Total Assets|Total Liabilities|Cash on Hand|Long-term debt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|Value ($)|304B|174B|131B|55B| + +Microsoft currently has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42 and a current ratio of 2.58. In case you're unaware, the current ratio is a way to measure how able a company is to pay back debt. A current ratio of over 1.5 is generally considered good. + +It's also worth noting that Microsoft's Cash on Hand can cover its short-term liabilities, which is always a plus. + +**Free Cash Flow/Buybacks** + +As of 6/30/20 (the last time they filed their 10K), Microsoft generates 45.25B in Free Cash Flow. This represents an 18.22% gain YoY, a 44.16% 3 year gain, and a 90.67% 5 year gain. Because Microsoft pays a below-market dividend, they end up spending that Free Cash Flow on share buybacks. Since FY 2019, Microsoft has spent more on share buybacks than they have on dividends ***\[3\]*** and has netted shareholders billions. + +**Price Ratios/Other** + +|Ratio|Microsoft|Apple|Google|Amazon|"Good Value" for Sector| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|PE Ratio (TTM)|34.33x|32.50x|34.53x|73.62x|<30x| +|P/B Ratio|13.34x|30.42x|6.14x|16.58x|<7x| +|P/S Ratio|11.78x|7.28x|8.17x|4.11x|<7x| +|P/FCF Ratio|35.79x|26.53x|34.75x|51.15x|<30x| +|ROE|42.19%|90.59%|19.03%|27.07%|\>25%| +|Leverage|2.5x|4.6x|1.4x|3.4x|Depends| +|3-year revenue growth|48.90%|23.06%|64.66%|116.85%|Depends| + +**PE Ratio** + +I said a "good" number for the sector was under 30x. I usually look for PEs under 15-20x, but you do have to pay for growth. In this section, nobody was under this threshold. Considering we're in a mature bull-market, I can't say I'm surprised. With that being said, Microsoft narrowly beat out Google to have the second-lowest PE at 34.33x. + +**P/B Ratio** + +I said a good P/B Ratio for this sector was under 7x. Very high, I know, but keep in mind these are good values for the *technology* sector. That being said, only Google came in under my good value while the rest weren't even close. Microsoft had the second-lowest P/B at 13.34x. So far, not so good. + +**P/S Ratio** + +I thought a good P/S ratio here would be under 7x (same as the P/B cutoff). This time, we saw both Google and Amazon qualify with Apple narrowly missing the cutoff. Microsoft ended up having the highest P/S ratio at 11.78x. Overall, P/S ratios were actually decent. + +**P/FCF Ratio** + +I identified under 30x to be a good multiple for this sector. Sadly, we're right back to where we were before, with only Apple qualifying and the rest being pretty far off. Microsoft had the second-worst P/FCF ratio at 35.79x. + +**ROE/Leverage/Revenue Growth** + +Microsoft: If you're going to have poor price ratios, the least you can do is be efficient at generating capital. A 42.19% ROE while maintaining reasonable leverage considering their revenue growth rate is impressive. This is one area where Microsoft actually looks pretty attractive. + +Apple: Not a big fan of the numbers here. They strike me as over-levered and a future slow-grower. + +Google: They have the lowest ROE of the bunch, but they're also the least levered. Considering the amount of growth they've had, the only way I could get behind this little leverage would be if management expected stagnation over the coming years. + +Amazon: Amazon is very solid in this area. They have a reasonable amount of leverage considering expected future growth and are pretty efficient at generating capital. + +Overall, Microsoft is good at generating capital and is well-levered considering expected and past growth rates. + +**Moderate DCF Valuation** + +Assuming a 15% 5-year revenue CAGR, an 8% discount rate, a 4% perpetual growth rate, and a 46% EBITDA Margin, Microsoft has an FV of $212.22 (upside of -10.1%). + +**Bull Case** + +In my bull case, I'm assuming Microsoft successfully monetizes LinkedIn, and Azure growth is faster than expected. I'm assuming a 17% 5-year revenue CAGR, an 8% discount rate, a 4% perpetual growth rate, and a 47% EBITDA Margin. Using these parameters, I got an FV of $270.80 (14.8% upside). + +I think the FV is probably between the current price and this bull case. + +**Bear Case** + +Don't worry, this won't be a Cathie Wood bear case! + +In this scenario, I'm assuming Azure loses market share, and Office growth stagnates. I think fair parameters in this scenario would be a 7% revenue CAGR, an 8% discount rate, a 4% perpetual growth rate, and a 45% EBITDA Margin. In this scenario, I got an FV of $168.89 (-28.4% upside). + +I find this bear case highly unlikely. In my opinion, the idea that Azure growth will slow is misguided. + +**Risks** + +1. **Office loses market share:** I've been talking about this one throughout the DD because I think it's probably a very likely scenario. The average consumer is going to prefer the Google Productivity Suite over Office because it's free and offers products equivalent in quality. If this were to happen, Office Commercial (Office for businesses and schools) would probably remain relatively intact. +2. **Azure gets trounced**: As I said in the previous section, I find this scenario very unlikely. It would require GCP being worth a dang or everyone snuggling up to Amazon. As I said before, a lot of companies won't go with AWS because it would be supporting a competitor and I don't think the people running GCP will be able to get their ducks in a row. +3. **Rotation into Value:** If bond yields were to continue rising rapidly, a flight to safety could ensue that would cause a selloff in tech stocks such as Microsoft. +4. **Regulation:** While I don't see any regulation risk for Microsoft in particular, if any of the FAANG stocks were to get hit with an anti-trust violation, it would send big-cap tech stocks into a tailspin. + +**Conclusion/TL;DR** + +While Microsoft is a great company with large amounts of growth ahead of it, the current valuation is frothy and there isn't enough of a margin of safety to justify an investment. + +**Sources** + +[**\[1\] = Microsoft Windows Figure**](https://www.statista.com/statistics/218089/global-market-share-of-windows-7/) + +[**\[2\] = LinkedIn User Number Figure**](https://about.linkedin.com/#:~:text=About%20LinkedIn) + +[**\[3\] = Share Buyback/Dividend Comparison**](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/trended/cash-returned.aspx) +While doing fundamental analysis and looking into company's website and statements, they write very promising and luring stuff such as " we are leading manufacturers and thrusted brand for 20 over yrs " and stuff like that. + + +Pls someone help me how to not get lured by these statements and make a fairly rational decision. 🙂 +My current portfolio is composed of growth, value, and dividend stocks. Certain companies such as Microsoft I’ve held for almost 3 years and I will continue to hold for a few more years especially given their position in the industry (bullish thesis not provided here). + +Recently, I spoke to a friend of mine who is new to the stock market and she said that she wanted to hold the stocks that she bought long-term. However, when the market started to decline, she started panicking saying that she’s very worried because the price of her shares have declined. I told her that she does not need to worry if she’s holding a “good” company long-term since the price will recover. This didn’t ease her worries though. + +Such reactions seem to be more common right now from what I’ve been reading on Reddit. People are worried about stock prices even though they claim to be holding long. + +So the question is, what exactly does “holding long” mean to you? + +PS - I know that MSFT is not a value company. I simply wanted to use it as an example of me holding a company long-term. + +PS#2: If you’re one of the people who claim to want to hold long but are panicking right now, just take a deep breath. “Good” businesses will weather this storm. +Hi. + +&#x200B; + +I Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) calculations, one of the parameters are expected growth rate. How does value investors go about finding such figures? Do you look up a range of stock analysts' research (if so, which websites etc would you recommend?), and pick a number based on these? Or do you have some other means of coming up with expected growth rate? + +I see guys such as [Sven Carlin](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrTTBSUr0zhPU56UQljag5A) use one expected growth rate for the next five years, and another for the 5-10 year range, which seems logical but I have no idea where to even start doing this myself. +Hey, I'm having difficulties understanding what my boy Ben means by "estimating future earnings and then multiplying these by a factor appropriate to the particular issue" on page 166 in the intelligent investor (full passage posted below). + +Is he talking about multiplying the earnings **per share**? Because otherwise why would you multiply the future earnings by "a factor"? + +"There are two tests by which a bargain common stock is detected. The first is by the method of appraisal. This relies largely on estimating future earnings and then multiplying these by a factor appropriate to the particular issue. If the resultant value is sufficiently above the market price—and if the investor has confidence in the technique employed—he can tag the stock as a bargain." + +Thanks for the help! +I posted some of this yesterday and didn't get much traction in daily questions of [r/investing](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/). Today I meant to post it here and accidentally post it in [r/investing](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/). (facepalm) I thought about deleting it, but what the hell, I'm going to cross-post and see the disparity in the comments. + +tldr, I'm having a crisis of confidence in buy-and-hold index investing strategy + +**Backstory:** + +I'm 38 and live in the USA. I'm employed, and I make the median national income. I want to accrue wealth over the long term. I don't know that I have an accurate understanding of my risk tolerance. I think generally I am very cautious. Before yesterday I was about 70% equities, 15 bonds, 15 cash. I just sold off a lot of my stock. I'm waiting for the account to settle to see my new allocation, but I'm certainly under 50% stocks at this time. I have no debts. + +I have been a buy & hold index fund investor for the 20 years of my adult life. It always sort of bothered me that I didn't understand the underlying mechanisms of the markets I was investing in. At some point in the last decade I learned about the Schiller p/e index and thought "hmm, this doesn't seem good..." I read *Random Walk,* and I think I understood most of it. + +**The Bug Out:** + +Recently, I heard a Grantham interview and read some Hussman, and their gloomy prognostication really struck a chord with my natural inclination towards pessimism. They say current prices are unthethered from the underlying assets and and that this is true across all sectors of the market. My friends and the forums are full people throwing money at speculative investments (currency, SPAC, etc). My elders are telling me to blindly invest in an index fund and forget about it, because 'historic returns, don't miss the market's big days, it worked for them, etc.' + +My armchair diagnosis is that there are a lot of people like me that are blindly investing in broad index funds that could care less about the underlying value of the assets as long as the price keeps going up. I suspect at some time in the future we'll look back and see that index funds were a craze like any other and laugh at the certainly we currently feel that these assets will return 6-8% on average until the end of time. Looking at you Vanguard (who recently told me that a 'normal asset allocation' was 90-95% stocks...hmm). I also think we'll look back and see that the last trick the boomers played on us was propping up their asset valuations with Fed policy and leaving us to hold the bag. + +Worst of all, it doesn't seem like anyone I speak these concerns to (friends, family, investment advisors) is really taking them seriously or even hearing them. Am I turning into a flat-earther? Is the king wearing any clothes? + +**What Now?** + +I've been told you shouldn't try to time the market, and I've read the explainers about how I'm likely to mistime by selling below the peak, buying before the trough, and missing out on gains while out of the market. Frankly, I'm at a point where I don't believe in the market at all. Is not believing in the market at all the same as timing it? + +I've heard that market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I've also read that by definition there is never greater certainty in the market than the day before the bubble pops. + +I'm not sure I can just put all of my money in an index fund and sleep at night. I have the following questions. Have some of you had a bug-out like I'm having now and that led you to value investing? Do you still believe in index funds in this current market? The knowledge requirements to be a value investor seem much higher than for an index-fund investor. It's crazy intimidating. Do I just start reading your investment bibles and leave my money on the sidelines until I understand how make investment decisions in individual companies? + +tldr2; I am questioning the fundamentals of my buy-and-hold index fund approach to investing. What the hell do I do? + +EDIT: typos and clarifications. +Hey, I'm having difficulties understanding what my boy Ben means by "estimating future earnings and then multiplying these by a factor appropriate to the particular issue" on page 166 in the intelligent investor (full passage posted below). + +Is he talking about multiplying the earnings **per share**? Because otherwise why would you multiply the future earnings by "a factor"? + +"There are two tests by which a bargain common stock is detected. The first is by the method of appraisal. This relies largely on estimating future earnings and then multiplying these by a factor appropriate to the particular issue. If the resultant value is sufficiently above the market price—and if the investor has confidence in the technique employed—he can tag the stock as a bargain." + +Thanks for the help! +Buffet, Lynch, and other value investors tout that they would scour through books of stocks to find undervalued companies. I know they didn’t take the time to look into the financials for every single company, so what test must first pass before they look into the full financial rundown? What have you found to be your first metric a company must pass? +Hi All, + +I'm trying to find a value for the intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc Class A (using a DCF model), I've seen multiple websites state values which are vastly different: + +[https://www.gurufocus.com/term/iv\_dcf/NAS:GOOG/Intrinsic-Value:-DCF-(FCF-Based)/Alphabet(Google)](https://www.gurufocus.com/term/iv_dcf/NAS:GOOG/Intrinsic-Value:-DCF-(FCF-Based)/Alphabet(Google)) + +\- $3186 + +[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intrinsic-calculation-alphabet-inc-nasdaq-075248296.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intrinsic-calculation-alphabet-inc-nasdaq-075248296.html) + +\- $3111 + +[https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/goog/summary](https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/goog/summary) + +\- $2537 + +[https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/discounted-cash-flow-model-levered/GOOG](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/discounted-cash-flow-model-levered/GOOG) + +\- $3784 + +Which website is most respected and or used by personal investors to calculate intrinsic value? + +Bonus: are there any other or better models used to give a projected value of what a share is truly worth (intrinsic value)? + +Thanks in advance x +SoFi has been a very popular retail stock and I underestimated the amount of information that was available for it. It took me quite some time to differentiate what is important and what isn't and this post is a summary of my findings and it includes valuation at the very end. + +As always, the video is available for those who prefer to watch: [https://youtu.be/YkeEydywiiQ](https://youtu.be/YkeEydywiiQ) + +**What is SoFi?** + +SoFi is a Fintech company that aspires to be a one-stop-shop for financial services, that allows members to borrow, save, spend, invest and protect their money. + +Now, the main question is, well, **how is this different than a bank?** The management provides 4 differentiation points: + +1. Speed - being faster than the competitors when it comes to approval of loans, opening accounts, buying/selling stock through their platform, payments, etc. - In my opinion, although this industry has been around for hundreds of years, there's no doubt that certain parts of it have to be disrupted. However, my question is, assuming this is an advantage that SoFi has, is it sustainable for the next 5, 10, or 15 years? I don't think so. + +2. Selection of products - More products related to borrowing, saving, investing, and protecting money. I personally don't buy this differentiation point. I do believe cost-cutting is possible, but coming up with something new and innovative that's significantly different than the current offerings, I doubt it. + +3. Content - Financial education, research, insights - Even if SoFi has a platform that offers more financial education and research, this is something that is easily replicable. I don't see this as a huge long-term advantage. + +4. Convenience - Instead of having opening times between 9 and 5 from Monday to Friday, they want to offer the services 24/7. The company has an only online presence so they can cut some costs as they don't have to lease buildings for this purpose. + +&#x200B; + +**The 3 segments** + +The company has 3 segments and it is worth spending time understanding each one: + +1. The lending segment - self-explanatory - accounts for 75% of the total revenue +2. The technology segment - which is related to Galileo - accounts for 19% of the total revenue +3. The financial services segment - is related to all the products such as debit/credit cards, budgeting tools, investing, etc. - accounts for 6% of the total revenue + +All 3 sectors have been growing fast, but we need more information to understand the second one. + +The technology segment is related to an acquisition the company made back in 2020 (Galileo) and the purchase price was roughly $1.2b. At the time, that was almost 15% of the company's market cap. What SoFi got from the acquisition was a payment processing platform that uses AI for fraud detection, which is more efficient than the industry average. On top of that, it has an API that allows for app development. The revenue for SoFi will come in the form of platform fees and program management fees. This is one of their big bets and the management refers to this segment as the AWS of Fintech. The same way a business can be started on Amazon within a day, well, that's what they're aiming for, except for companies in the financial industry. + +&#x200B; + +**The growth story, the metrics, and the confusion** + +The company provides two key metrics for its growth in its annual report. + +1. The # of users - This has significantly grown from 1m back in 2019, to almost 2m in 2020 to almost 3.5m in 2021. However, it is worth mentioning that every one that is registered on the platform is a member and remains one unless the terms of service are violated. So, if there's an inactive member for 3 years, it doesn't matter, that person will be considered a member. However, what I'm missing here is the revenue per user. Having users is good, but if they're not being monetized, the metric is useless. +2. The # of products - If the first metric is not that useful, maybe this one serves a better job. If you as a member have a personal loan, well, that's one product. If you have a credit card, that's another one. If you are using their platform to invest, that's another one. The idea of the company to build a good relationship with its members and sell many of its products is great. Well, the number of products reported in 2021 was 5m. That translates to roughly 1.5 products per person. It did increase from 1.21 in 2019, but it isn't that impressive (yet). Although it sounds as if this could be a great metric, well, there's another trap here, not every product has the same value. 1m of these 5m products are related to the lending segment, which as mentioned above, accounts for 75% of the total revenue! The remaining 4m products bring in only 6% of the revenue as they're related to the financial services. + +So, we have metrics that are not that reliable. What's next? + +&#x200B; + +**The company's performance and what can we expect?** + +If we look at the company's performance, it is a money-losing company with a negative net margin of -48% for 2021 on its roughly $1b in revenue. + +A **mature** company in this industry has: + +\- a net margin that's between 10-15% + +\- high leverage (debt on the balance sheet being over 80% of the total passive) + +\- RoE around 16% + +Currently, the debt is around 50% of the balance sheet, so there's still a lot of room to grow. + +These numbers should serve as a sanity check later on for my valuation as if I forecast anything that's significantly above that, it might be unreasonable. + +&#x200B; + +**What's next?** + +The company made one large acquisition (Galileo) in 2020 for $1.2b. At the beginning of 2022, they announced the large acquisition of Technisys for $1.1b, which is a company that will serve as their core banking system. Both of these acquired companies have some presence in LATAM, so SoFi is acquiring new companies that have a presence in other geographical regions as well. + +The analysts forecast about 50% revenue growth in 2022, followed by 41% revenue growth in 2023. Great growth, but slightly declining. At the same time, the net margin is expected to improve, from -48% in 2021, to : + +\-21% in 2022 + +\-6% in 2023 + +\+5% in 2024 + +&#x200B; + +**The risks** + +Due to the actions being taken, there are two large risks that I see: + +1. **Execution** risk - Their big bet (The technology segment), currently accounts for less than 20% of the revenue and hasn't yet proven as successful. +2. **Integration** risk - Combining SoFi with Galileo and Technisys might sound great and there's always the amazing word synergy being used, but that's yet to be seen in the financials. There's an integration risk here that needs to be addressed. + +&#x200B; + +**The valuation** + +Taking into account all the information above, I used a DCF model to estimate the company's value. + +**Revenue growth** \- 898% in the next 10 years (following analysts' estimates for the next 2 years, then slowly declining). From $1b in 2020 to $10b in 2030. + +**Net margin** \- From -48% in 2021 to 13.5% in 2030 - Close to industry average + +**Discount rate** \- 12.8% (Based on cost of equity) + +**RoE** \- Based on the assumptions above and the development of equity, the RoE is roughly 15%, which is close to the industry's average. + +&#x200B; + +Putting all the numbers together, and adjusting for the equity options and the preferred shares, the value of the company is **$8.8b** (almost $8/share). The current market cap is $6.5b. + +It is worth mentioning that at the moment, I am looking at SoFi as a company that's not significantly different than the current ones in this industry. I am aware that I could be significantly wrong in my assumptions and if I see a better performance from their technology segment, my storyline would significantly change. + +I'd like to get your view on the company and I am sure there are plenty of pieces in this puzzle that I have to learn more about. +I'm still new at this so I'm trying to find good stocks to hold for at least 3-5 years. I know there's more to it than looking at the p/e ratio or PEG. What else does everyone check? Thanks in advance! +It's not a typical question that is asked about but I am curious as to % of cash allocation for people and how often/do you change the allocation? (ie, selling stocks to raise more cash or using cash position to build a position). I'm currently holding a 11.3% cash position in my Roth IRA and it bothers me at times that I have cash not being used to buy stocks. Then again, I really want to take advantage of the market when it does tank. + +Also wondering if Cash would be considered a value position given an overvalued market ( I get that i lose purchasing power over time due to inflation but it sure is nice to have money to buy during a bear market) + +Thoughts and comments below. +Greetings! + + I have a finance & investing blog at [www.lucid-finance.com](https://www.lucid-finance.com/), and I am trying to figure out what content would help retail investors the most. Sometimes I feel like I am spraying and praying, trying to add value. So, do you find it hard to source reliable, accurate, long-term financial information? Are you looking for a high-quality stock screener? No idea how to conduct due diligence? Limited by psychological errors and biases? Don't know where to start? How to select a broker? International differences in accounting? + +Let me know - I want to create content that you find valuable. +Buffet, Lynch, and other value investors tout that they would scour through books of stocks to find undervalued companies. I know they didn’t take the time to look into the financials for every single company, so what test must first pass before they look into the full financial rundown? What have you found to be your first metric a company must pass? +What stocks are on your radar this week? + +What's in the news that's affecting the market? + +Celebrate your successes, rue your losses, or just chat with your fellow Value redditors! + +*(New Weekly Megathreads are posted every Monday at 0600 GMT.)* +I was wondering how people are doing evaluations in bulk, I've found many videos on different models, but they are one off. It would be awesome to be able to get each model into a column with a row for each company. Any tools people use? +I wanted to share my analysis on HCC, WSE:IRL and TK. + +Disclaimer: I hold long positions on all discussed stocks and I'm not a financial advisor. Seek professional advice before investing or do your own DD. + +# Warrior Met Coal (HCC): + +Warrior comes from the bankruptcy of Walter Energy, its creditors IPO'd this asset in 2017 to form the Company. They mine metallurgical coal (hcc) for steel production, not to be confused with thermal coal. Very unknown company + +|***Market Cap:*** *1.4B $*|***Revenue:*** \*1.2B $ \*\*|***Net Debt:*** *220M*| +|:-|:-|:-| +|***Management:*** *✔️*|***FCF:*** \*300M+ $ \*\*|***Financial Position:*** *7*| +|***Dividend:*** *0%*|***Growth:*** *Blue Creek*|\*My normalized estimates| + +***Valuation (DCF NPV):*** *+60$ (Current price 22$)* ***MoS:*** *65%* ***IRR (Over DR):*** *14%* + +|**Pros**|**Cons**| +|:-|:-| +|Valuation, Blue Creek, Low-cost Producer, Management, Long Term Customers, Very high returns on stable conditions, Good Balance Sheet|Market values it as energy coal, Low Met Coal price, Dependent on Met Coal price| + +# Inter Rao Lietuva (WSE:IRL): + +Inter Rao Lietuva comes from the Russian energy group Inter Rao. It operates in the Baltic countries and Poland through its 3 subsidiaries and Poland. It also owns the biggest WindPark in Lithuania and is the biggest player in the energy market in Lithuania. The company has ridiculous returns on equity and capital employed and is a very well-run ship. + +|***Market Cap:*** *380M PLN*|***Revenue:*** \*1B PLN \*\*|***Net Debt:*** *-76M PLN*| +|:-|:-|:-| +|***Management:*** *✔️*|***FCF:*** \*70M \~ PLN \*\*|***Financial Position:*** *8*| +|***Dividend:*** *17%*|***Growth:*** *None*|\*My normalized estimates| + +***Valuation (DCF NPV):*** *+40PLN (Current price 19.9 PLN)* ***MoS:*** *51%* ***IRR (Over DR):*** *10%* + +|**Pros**|**Cons**| +|:-|:-| +|Valuation, 100% Dividend payment, Huge cash flow generator, the main player in the region, We will use electricity for the foreseeable future, WindPark|Not a compounder or huge growth Not followed, Warsaw Exchange| + +# Teekay Corp. (TK): + +Teekay Corp is the major partner for Teekay Tankers (TNK) and Teekay LNG Partners (TGP). They operate in maritime LNG and Oil transportation. Very different stories in both, LNG has long-term contracts for the future usage of their vessels and can almost be seen as a bond. TNK is a bit worse business with a worse outlook but had a fantastic 2020 year with about 4x usual FCF and revenues than my normalized estimate. Since this company has virtually no income the valuation comes from a sum of parts of the Units and Shares it owns from its subsidiaries: + +&#x200B; + +|***Teekay Tankers (TNK)***|***Teekay LNG Partners(TGP)***| +|:-|:-| +|***Revenue:*** \*1B $ \*\*|***Revenue:*** \*1B $ \*\*| +|***FCF:*** \*100M+ $ \*\*|***FCF:*** *300M+ $ \* (Paying down debt)*| +|***Net Debt:*** *530M*|***Net Debt:*** *2.8B $*| +|***Valuation (DCF NPV):*** *30$*|***Valuation (DCF NPV):*** *25$*| + +Teekay Corp. (TK) + +|***Market Cap:*** *263M*|***Dividend:*** *0%*| +|:-|:-| +|***Management:*** *✔️*|***Financial Position:*** *5*| +|***\~9M Shares TNK (30 $ IV)*** *289M $*|***\~35M Units of TGP (25$ IV)*** *890M $*| + +\*My normalized estimates + +***Valuation (DCF NPV):*** *\~8$ (Current price 2,88$)* ***MoS:*** *65%* ***IRR (Over DR):*** *15%* + +|**Pros**|**Cons**| +|:-|:-| +|Valuation, Huge deleveraging this year, Orderbook vs fleet age (TNK), Slow but growing market, US export position, Long Contracts (TGP), Honest Management|Oil demand not strong midterm, Oil bad wrap, Leveraged Companies, Not flashy companies| + +You can also see this investing thesis with graphs and further detail on video: [https://youtu.be/efR9A2BwGOE](https://youtu.be/efR9A2BwGOE) +i am up to page 76 which is talking about the importance of the constant YoY growth of the five numbers he has given us. sales, eps, equity, and cash. + +after learning of these numbers, i have punched them into a spreadsheet that will show there growth percentages. + +however for sales, i have always learned this to be revenue, or so i thought. but in the book when he is talking about it, he says + +"we have to take these numbers and create percentages from them that represent growth rates. only then can we be certain that they meet our 10 percent per year on average minimum standard. in this example, apollos roic is staying consistant and sales (gross profit), eps, equity and cash numbers are all going up......." + +&#x200B; + +ok so he says "sales (gross profits)". is this accurate? because i have different parts of my spreadsheet that have revenue on parts where books have said sales in there calculations, do i now have to switch them for gross profit? +**$AAL cheap or dangerous?** + +Ever since covid hit, and even before then, $AAL price has sunk. At its highest was in 2018, the stock was 55.4$ and currently is priced at 14.33$. + +**Company’s debt** + +We all know that airlines have suffered a hard hit from covid and most of them have accumulated large amounts of debt. **$AAL has accumulated the most amount out of all U.S airlines**, more than $35B in debt, in comparison to $DAL which has $23.23B debt. Although, the current **debt\\equity** **ratio** of $AAL is 4.679 and $DAL is 4.62, very close. + +The company plans to balance its debt by 2025. + +**Company’s revenue** + +$AAL quarter’s revenue stood at **$13.462B the highest it’s ever been**, and a 50% increase year-over-year. Also, this year’s **current revenue is standing at $45.207B** setting a new yearly high with only a couple of weeks left. + +Demands for flights are at a high with the holiday season, $AAL flew a **25% tighter schedule** that its competitor. + +**More information** + +* Current market cap of 9.313B +* $AAL ROE is 19.72% and $DAL ROE is 2.17% +* DEBT to EBITDA 9.65 + +With fuel prices high and the company’s debt, I’m not sure that investing in a company like $AAL is the right thing even though the stock price is low and the high revenues. + +**What do you think?** + +[My portfolio](https://www.jika.io/u/Crowman?re=reddit) +Friday is my b-day. Just adopted a newborn. Wife contemplating becoming a stay at home mother. Student Loans. Mortgage. Now Gas. + +Believe me - I'll go in to default on my mortgage before I sell my GME - and likely not even then - but if we could get this rocket off the ground soon, that would make my days a bit less stressful. :) + +Encouraged by Mr. Cohen's recent tweets. I think liftoff is soon, regardless.... But like right now would be awesome. +What it is: [https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/](https://www.gamestop.com/poweruprewards/) + +Consider this quote from a 2017 article: + +https://preview.redd.it/odrx3tjavdc91.png?width=1282&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5a51e0fb5fcfe909f776c2e9885093fcc3da107 + +[https://www.retaildive.com/ex/mobilecommercedaily/gamestop-exec-leverage-loyalty-data-to-boost-revenue-engagement](https://www.retaildive.com/ex/mobilecommercedaily/gamestop-exec-leverage-loyalty-data-to-boost-revenue-engagement) + +GameStop's PowerUp users are customers, fans, and, hopefully, a loyal base of early adopters (looking at you NFT Marketplace). Aside from Cohen, his team, and us apes, PowerUp members might be the biggest asset GameStop has going for it. Forty million members in 2017 was already a big number. Now it stands at 50.5M (as of Jan. 2022). + +What's especially exciting is the pivot from a % discount on purchases to a $5 reward coupon that occurred three years ago. + +https://preview.redd.it/6hwk0tkrvdc91.png?width=1404&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4b248459ae77d5579dea268d0d7e5509e39fe30 + +[https://www.nintendo.destructoid.com/gamestops-poweredup-pro-rewards-are-getting-a-major-downgrade/](https://www.nintendo.destructoid.com/gamestops-poweredup-pro-rewards-are-getting-a-major-downgrade/) + +What the writer is missing is this ... this move brings in customers who might not already be visiting the store/website frequently (like someone maximizing the 10% discount would already be doing). It also leaves more money in GameStop's coffers. Those discounts do add up, especially if folks are buying for resale. + +Remember, GameStop's leadership keeps highlighting top-line growth (i.e., revenue). You do this with incentives to buy for new customers, not necessarily with incentives for those who are already heavily buying. In fact, you try to retain more of their wallet share (like by relieving them of a 10% discount). + +I probably don't need to go into the implications of GameStop PowerUp members being unleashed into the GameStop NFT Marketplace upon its full release. But the numbers make things look like the results could be epic. + +The other thing worth highlighting in regards to GameStop's PowerUp Rewards is something that might even give us a clue about how many U.S. retail investors are holding GameStop. + +Check this out: + +https://preview.redd.it/unp995kywdc91.png?width=2702&format=png&auto=webp&s=510fc8d654e5274b7f8a6b93f4a73ce9976d888c + +Notice how PowerUp Pro membership had been waning since 2017, then BAM! ... massive 32% growth starting in January 2021. That's a 1.3 million increase, and if you assume the 3-year trend would have continued, it's really more like 2.6 million PowerUp Pro users materialized out of nowhere. Apes? How many of these 1.3-2.6 million\~ people are hodlers still? How many are hodlers with a constantly increasing share count? I know I signed up after the Sneeze, and know others who did as well. I know some of you did too. And I know many of us are not only holding, but increasing our moon tickets every month, week, and sometimes day. + +Here are the raw numbers of PowerUp members ... + +https://preview.redd.it/1980jaiexdc91.png?width=1546&format=png&auto=webp&s=667af82f2dcecdc4832274c7ed0f15bd9967e73e + +Curious is GameStop didn't include non-U.S. members in their latest annual filing. What might really tell us if a lot of this growth is attributable to stonkholders is if we could see the non-US numbers too ... if those also spiked too, well ... + +There is a lot to be excited about right now. The NFT Marketplace is proving itself out every day, and its big-name debuts are going to quickly bring in millions of new users almost overnight. If GameStop can manage to connect PowerUp Reward points to the NFT Marketplace (exclusive offers/collections, exchange points for crypto, free NFT for PowerUp members, etc.), the impact will be even more profound. + +I just wanted to quickly throw this together because I think the topic and value of the PowerUp program have been somewhat overlooked. It's definitely something that we, the investors, should be keeping a close eye on. + +....................................................... + +About the GameStop PowerUp Pro Rewards program (consider becoming a member if you haven't already): + +[https://www.gamestop.com/TermsConditions.html](https://www.gamestop.com/TermsConditions.html) + +**PowerUp Rewards Pro® Membership** + +At time of enrollment, or at any time after initial enrollment, a Member may purchase a PowerUp Rewards Pro Membership ("Pro Member," “Pros,” or "Pro Membership") in select stores participating in the Pro Member Program. The current price for a Pro Membership is $14.99 per year for Members that elect to receive a digital copy of *Game Informer* (“Digital Members”) and $19.99 per year for Members that elect to receive a physical copy of *Game Informer* (“Physical Members”). Purchase price and terms may vary and are subject to change (in GameStop’s discretion). Subject to change without notice, a Pro Member is entitled to the following benefits commencing immediately following the purchase of the Pro Membership: + +&#x200B; + +* 10,000 welcome bonus points, which will be added within the first month of enrolling as a Pro for the first time. Pros that renew their membership will receive 5,000 renewal bonus points. Members will not receive welcome/renewal points more than once in a nine (9) month period. +* 20 points will be accumulated for every dollar spent, excluding the cost of renewal and purchase of GameStop gift cards. +* Extra trade-in credit on games, accessories, and more. +* Pro $5 Monthly Reward. These coupons provide $5 off one eligible item, such as games, accessories, collectibles, hardware, and select digital goods. Coupons can be used once in total, either in-store or online. Coupons will be made available in a Pro Member’s Account within the first week of each calendar month and will expire during the last day of that calendar month. These coupons cannot stack or be used with other promotions. The coupon cannot be used on GameStop gift cards, 3rd party gift cards, select downloadable content, a Pro membership, or reservations. Other exclusions may apply. Pros will not receive a monthly reward certificate for the month they enroll.  +* Annual subscription to Game Informer magazine, either physical or digital depending on payment tier. + +............ + +Edit: Post was pulling in a Kohl's image from the RetailDive link, which bugs me. So I added a GME link to top of article ... hopefully this fixes things. Ug ... it did not. Oh well. +Some people here are under the impression that Bitcoins stored in Circle and Xapo accounts are safe since they offer "insured accounts". If you read their ToS, you'll find + +1. It does not cover customers' lost bitcoin in case of customer negligence. So, If your machine gets compromise and your login credentials are stolen, they are NOT liable for the stolen bitcoins. + + +Xapo ToS: + +> Vault Insurance. + +>Bitcoins stored in our Vault will be covered by our insurance. The insurance is provided at no charge to Vault users and covers all incidents that are not due to your negligence + +Circle ToS: + +> General Provisions. + +> 5.1 Limitations of Liability. YOU EXPRESSLY UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT CIRCLE AND OUR AFFILIATES AND SERVICE PROVIDERS, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, AGENTS, JOINT VENTURERS, EMPLOYEES AND REPRESENTATIVES **WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT**, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, EXEMPLARY DAMAGES, OR DAMAGES FOR LOSS OF PROFITS INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, DAMAGES FOR LOSS OF GOODWILL, USE, DATA OR OTHER INTANGIBLE LOSSES (EVEN IF CIRCLE HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES), **WHETHER BASED ON CONTRACT, TORT, NEGLIGENCE, STRICT LIABILITY OR OTHERWISE** + + +2. If they get hacked and lost all your Bitcoins, they are only liable to pay back up to $100. That's it. + +Xapo ToS: + +> Limitation of Liability + +>In no event will the aggregate liability of Xapo, our licensors, service providers, or subcontractors for any loss or damage that arises out of, or is connected with, any of the occurrences described above exceed, the greater of $100 or the service fees that you paid to us for the service we provide + +Circle ToS: + +> 5.1 Limitations of Liability. + +> IN NO EVENT WILL CIRCLE’S TOTAL LIABILITY TO YOU FOR ALL DAMAGES, LOSSES OR CAUSES OF ACTION EXCEED THE AMOUNT YOU HAVE PAID CIRCLE IN THE LAST SIX (6) MONTHS, OR, IF GREATER, ONE HUNDRED U.S. DOLLARS ($100). + + + +**TL;DR** + + +These "insured account" companies will pay you nothing if you lost your Bitcoins due to your mistake and will only pay you up to $100 if it's their mistake. + +[Xapo ToS](https://www.xapo.com/en/terms/) + +[Circle ToS](https://www.circle.com/user-agreement) + + +Let’s talk about tickers for the week. Here are my picks... + +**OBSV:** strong momentum friday, lots of volume, if it continues into Monday then it should have a good week. Conference coming up on Wednesday may also help. Gains could sell off after conference, so I would consider selling before the conference if you buy in Monday and you’re short term. + +I’m long on OBSV. Won’t be selling anything this week and if it does dip I’ll add to my position. + +**NVCN:** recent offering, this has now dipped to a decent entry point. Was mentioned on YT this weekend by Chris Sain so it will likely run secondary to that alone. Also has a conference this week on Wednesday which may generate some good PR. + +I have a small short term position here that I opened during the post-offering dip. When this pops this week, I’m selling and I won’t be back. I’m bearish long term. + +**CTXR:** will likely run on momentum and hype alone. I think it could touch $3 this week. Could be a solid swing, but don’t get caught bagholding if you buy > $2. Would expect a cool off after it runs, until we get data. + +I’m both short and long here. Will trim this week and let some ride. + +**PULM:** recent direct offering at 2.00. Trading in the 1.90s now. There has been some hype on here and r/robinhoodpennystocks and I think it’s due for a post-offering run up. While I think the direct offering was a bit bullish, I feel that this hasn’t quite recovered and run up again due to the choppy market last week and those brutal red days. + +I have a small position here. Haven’t decided if I’m short or long. Either way, will likely trim this week if it pops. + +**What do you think will run? And more importantly, *why*?** +So I'm planning on retiring in November. I have (had) a healthy 401K, but since this virus, my funds are dwindling. My financial planner said I could move what's left to cash and re-invest when thing normalize, but I'm loath to do that as I'm down about $200K now. What are your thoughts on how to handle a 401K during this time. Should I ride it out, or go to cash now? +Maybe this is common knowledge but withdraws from GDAX are free to the user and they pay the network fee. I am not sure if there is a minimum withdraw amount, but I have withdrawn as little as $10, which is usually less than the fee costs by itself. + +I've only tested this with BTC, but it should work with LTC and ETH as well. +Probably preaching to the choir here, but: + +About 10 years ago my best friend called me up. He'd graduated from an expensive private school with ~$100k in student loan debt, and had been admitted to law school at the same place. Turned out he was having a wee bit of trouble financing it. He wanted to know if I'd co-sign on a law school loan or two. + +At the time, I didn't even know what that meant (I got through college with no debt, thank the Old Gods). Called up my dad who strenuously advised me to under NO circumstances co-sign on anyone else's loan, ever. So I told my buddy sorry, but no. + +Unfortunately, our friendship was never the same after that. I'm sure he resented me for not being a true bud and signing. But somehow or other he managed to get financing for God knows how many more tens of thousands in loans for law school. + +Fast forward 10 years. Found out recently that, like many with law degrees in the current economy, his income hasn't kept pace with his loans, and he's defaulted on his student loans and the debt collectors are pounding on his door, taking his car, garnishing wages, taking out liens, etc. + +And if I had agreed to co-sign those years ago, those debt collectors would be coming after **me**. + +Thank the Old Gods for my dad's wise advice, and the lesson is: never, ever co-sign. Ever. + +EDIT: Interesting minority of folks here chiming in to say they co-signed X loan with no problems. Some get lucky, I guess. Also, I suppose that in a **very** few limited number of situations - parents helping children - co-signing *might* make sense. I still wouldn't do it if it could at all be avoided, though. + +EDIT 2: So many horror stories. Anyone considering co-signing a loan should be required to read through these comments first. +I very much doubt they are pricing in the salvation package that was last week. Now it's only more victims more quarantines and more low earnings reports for the next two months. Unbelievable? Sounds even manipulated +Money touches nearly every part of our lives and how we think about money affects our prosperity. I see a lot of posts celebrating successes in paying off debts (which is great) but I would like to contribute some of my wisdom as someone who definitely lived a povertyfinance life for many years and moved on to prosper. + +I grew up in small town Ohio, in the decaying remnants of the coal and steel empire. My town had zero traffic lights and 18.5% of the population is below the poverty line. My dad was ex-military with an associate's degree and my mom was a public school teacher. + +Growing up we never had much money and my parents never had any real savings. My mother hid $200 of emergency money in a trash can underneath the trash bag where no thief would think to look. One day my dad took the trash out (including the envelope with the emergency cash in it) and burned it, as we did with all of our trash. I remember my mom crying for hours when she realized that the $200 had gone up in smoke never to be seen again. + +Growing up in that environment put me in a scarcity mentality with money. In college, I worked at a sandwich shop delivering food, often to the rich kids at my college. I didn't make much money, but I made enough to get by. Thanks to my scarcity mentality, anytime I had an extra few dollars, I would immediately spend it on something to upgrade my life like new clothes, a TV, or speakers for my car. Often, I would spend money that I anticipated receiving in the future, which didn't always arrive. And then of course I ignored irregular expenses such as new tires for my car, medicine for an illness, etc. which often led me to be in the red month after month. + +Graduating from college didn't help, either. I made more money, sure, but I just increased my living expenses to compensate. I went from a salvage titled Hyundai to a European luxury car. I went from $5 pizzas to dining out at the best restaurants in the city. Even though my income was 10 times what it used to be, I was still broke. Years later I would read a book that highlighted the issue. You can never outearn your ability to spend. There are many stories of professional athletes going bankrupt. There's always something out there to spend money on. There are million dollar cars and hundred million dollar houses for sale. You have to control your spending to build wealth. + +Building wealth is all about changing your mentality. Yeah, I know this sounds like a bunch of B.S. and it's real easy for me to say because I'm not in your situation and blah blah blah. I don't care. The first key to building wealth is to quit the pity game and take responsibility for your situation. Crappy things may have happened to you in the past but that doesn't stop you from moving forward. You can't control outside forces, you can only control your own life so you have to start from there. Sometimes life isn't fair and we start from a place of disadvantage. But you have to take that disadvantage and use it as fuel to push yourself even harder toward success. If this is you, listen to the audiobook version of "Can't hurt me" by David Goggins. His story is an amazing one of success in the face of extreme adversity. You can't help but be inspired by his story. + +Once you accept that you are in control of your future, you can move forward and take the bull by the horns, so to speak. The next step is to break free from the scarcity mindset. You'll read about the scarcity mindset in a lot of self-improvement and personal finance books but the basic idea is that if you live in a mindset where money is scarce and you don't know when or if you'll have enough money again, then you're in a mindset that will cause you to irrationally spend on unnecessary things. You feel anxious about being broke so you buy new \[clothes, rims, whatever\] so nobody knows you're poor. You pay for lunch or buy a round of drinks. But of course deep down you know this behavior is only making your situation worse. + +A funny thing happens when you start to build wealth. Or at least it happened to me. As I began to build wealth, I cared less and less about those "status symbols" I used to care so much about like my car, clothes, etc. I actually downgraded my lifestyle because 1. I realized the value of investing vs. spending and 2. once I could afford anything, I bought whatever I wanted, regardless of how others would perceive it. + +One of the best books I've ever read explained the difference between a poor person's mentality and a rich person's mentality. The poor person just worked hard at his job and spent whatever was left over after buying necessities on luxuries. The rich person, by contrast, skipped the luxuries and instead invested his money. He then used the profits generated by his investments to purchase luxuries. + +What is an "investment" you ask? An investment is anything that you spend money on that generates more money for you. It could be as simple as a lemonade stand to something as complex as purchasing stock market futures (what the heck are those?). Simply put, buy things that are going to make you money. New shoes or a set of rims for your car doesn't make you money (I wish). A new iPhone doesn't make you money. Stocks, bonds, and businesses make you money. A $100 pair of Nikes will be worth almost nothing in a few years. An investment of $100 in Nike stock may be worth $150 in a few years. This is how you get ahead. Instead of going from $100 to essentially zero, you go to $150. + +"But I don't have any extra money! Money is tight around here and you can't expect me to invest when I have no money!" This is just another excuse. I used to leave my house at 8:30am and commute 30+ minutes to work, work a full day, and then commute another 45+ minutes to night school where I'd spend three hours in class at my law school, finally getting home at 10pm. Then, I'd spend hours reading after 10pm until I fell asleep on my bed. It was exhausting but I powered through because I had a goal. If your goal is to make more money, you will find the time. + +Search the internet for side hustles and find one that clicks with you. Read r/sweatystartup or listen to the sweaty startup podcast. And while I'm on it, listen to as many podcasts about making money and investing as possible. There is so much money to be made out there. Remember, making money is nothing more than providing value to someone willing to pay. + +You want to accelerate your wealth building? Now live off the bare minimum. Make financial decisions based on the impact on your future net worth. Like in the previous example where you turn $100 into $150+ by buying Nike stock instead of buying $100 Nike shoes. Maximize your net worth while keeping your sanity. Take a vacation to Yosemite but skip the new rims for your car. If your car is anything like mine in this season of life, it's not worth it. + +Keep investing. Always be on the lookout for investment opportunities. Opportunities that allow you to turn a small sum of money into a larger sum of money. Eventually you will have enough investments that you don't have to work. That's the dream anyway. Your dream may vary. + +&#x200B; + +If you're interested in talking to me, a real human, over the phone, please send me a pm and we can set up a time to discuss your situation. Not selling anything, no b.s., just tryin to help out my fellow redditors. Ciao. + +Edit: +I spent about three hours carefully articulating this message out of a genuine desire to help others, as someone who suffered for many years with poverty. anyone who is reading this and gets inspired, great! You’re exactly the type of person I’m talking about. You can do this! + +To the people who are making excuses as to why I am wrong or this doesn’t apply to your situation because of this or that, you're limiting yourself. Don't limit yourself. You can do this! +Consensus seems to be that it’s extremely likely these shares plummet, but somehow they’re up 110% as of this writing today, and 500% in the past week. What am I missing? Is it not a safe bet to buy puts at this point? Even articles published this morning continue to refer to this rally as extremely risky, citing that investors are “playing a very dangerous game that is closer to gambling than investing” (Motley Fool). Any thoughts/insight would be appreciated! +//**Edit** IOTA shills prove me right. They keep harrassing and sending me abusive private messages for posting accurate information cited with objective sources + +[IOTA shills sending me abusive messages](https://imgur.com/a/nHFDgQ9) + +Please check my response to their post in r/cryptocurrencymeta. + +https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrencyMeta/comments/p4yhip/serious_we_should_stop_tolerating_the_spread_of/h94v5oe + +I cannot respond to their new post in r/cc harrassing me because they will mass downvote and bury my comment immediately.// + +I am making this post for one reason. To stop newbies who don't know about IOTA history from getting scammed by the IOTA ads from Linus Naumann who is a MOD of official IOTA sub. + +Look at [this most recent post](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/p46tqq/a_future_day_with_iota/) from Linus Naumann. + +You can look at every post in this sub made by him. + +As soon as he makes these advertisement posts for IOTA, it gets brigaded within just a few minutes to hot with upvotes and awards for a coin which is pretty much dead and almost nobody cares about. + +If you write any critical comment then it will get instantly downvoted to hide them by the IOTA brigaders who come here with him. Every reply from Linus gets instant 5-10 upvotes. + +This is nothing new for IOTA foundation. They play nice to shill their shitcoin but if you ask tough questions or disagree they will attack or try to silence you. + +Linus Naumann probably gets paid by IOTA foundation to make these IOTA shill posts in this sub full of lies, empty hype and false promises. + +Take a look at [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Iota/comments/l74il1/does_anyone_else_find_the_new_iota_underwhelming/) from r/Iota. Someone who invested in this scam is asking a critical question and see how the IOTA sub MOD shuts that person down in the top comment. + +**A short backstory for people who don't know about the history of IOTA.** + +In 2017 during bull market, IOTA started doing heavy marketing with fake partnership announcements with Microsoft etc. + +They also kept making a series of overhyped posts in the IOTA blog just like Linus is making here without even having a working product just to pump the price during bull market. These fake announcements and false hype caused a lot of retail traders to get rekt last time. + +Eric Wall, CIO of the Nordic cryptocurrency investment firm Arcane Assets who researched the project described the project as “the worst coin to have gotten as high as it did. They’re pushing the boundaries of the fake-it-till-you-make-it approach to the extreme.” + +IOTA only pumped from empty marketing hype and announcements. During the following bear market there wasn't any serious development till the current bull market and now the marketing train is back with brigading tactics but still no working product. That's why nobody takes it seriously anymore and it's ranked below SHIB. + + +**IOTA foundation harrasses and attacks people for criticizing them** + + +The MIT Tech Review ran a scathing review of the IOTA protocol’s insecurities 4 years ago. The founders constantly harrassed and attacked the person who wrote that review. + +In 2018, IOTA Foundation became known for scandalous emails between IOTA Foundation co-founder David Sonstebo and Neha Narula of MIT’s Digital Currency Initiative. + +Members of the IOTA community earned a reputation for routinely harassing women security experts, like Open Privacy founder Sarah Jamie Lewis, who found flaws in IOTA research. + +They also harrass people on social media and try to mass report and ban their accounts for criticizing the project. + +https://news.bitcoin.com/faced-with-criticism-iota-fans-try-to-bully-growing-list-of-detractors/ + + +**IOTA is a centralized scam without working product, gets repeatedly hacked and founders fight over tokens** + +IOTA foundation since the beginning has been using single controlling node called coordinator. The coordinator is authority node operated by the IOTA foundation and it's a single point of failure for the IOTA network, which makes the network centralized. + +IOTA has suffered attack after attack and network outages as a result of bugs in the coordinator and it is proven to be insecure to DDos attacks. IOTA first used a custom made hash function which was broken from the start and let you forge transactions. + +Last year the coordinator had outage for 20 days after their wallet got hacked. The network did not process any transactions during that time. Private keys of users and associated IOTA tokens worth around two million dollars got stolen. + +https://www.coindesk.com/iota-being-shut-off-is-the-latest-chapter-in-an-absurdist-history + +Just few weeks before this outage one of the founders Sergey Ivancheglo AKA Come-from-Beyond/CFB decided to quit the project and had a fight with other founder David Sonstebo over splitting the founders IOTA tokens. + +As they were fighting the third founder who is Dominik Schiener claimed that he “single-handedly conceived” the IOTA brand. It was a messy fight and they were all trying to claim the founders tokens for themselves. + +Now since bull market is back IOTA is saying they are doing tests without coordinator. Thats the DevNet testnet. IOTA said the same thing in May 2019. Quote from founder David Sonstebo in 2019: + +“We have been working towards the removal of the Coordinator since IOTA's inception. Now with the maturity and growth of the protocol, and the quality of our research team, we are bringing that promise to fruition.” + +Guess what? It didn't come to fruition. Another false promise. Now IOTA foundation is claiming they have a new solution to replace coordinator. IOTA is full of claimed research and pilots but no working product and there are no clients using the protocol. + + +**Will IOTA ever work?** + +I have no idea. I would say not because of how founders behaved in the past and repeated false promotions and announcements. Even if it did there are million question marks from the code to security of network. + +Imagine if Satoshi hyped Bitcoin in 2000 without any idea how to solve BGP but he took money from investors with false hopes? Then if Satoshi was a group of people and they all started fighting over the money? + +Satoshi simply gave us Bitcoin and left. Now we have all these selfish scammers doing empty social hype for projects without even working product for over 6 years. + +**P.S. I will link tweets from Sarah Jamie Lewis and CFB in comments since twitter links are blocked in posts** + +**EDIT** If you observe in the comments almost everyone attacking this post in comments gets their comments immediately upvoted with 5-10 upvotes and critical comments get immediately buried. If I reply, it's immediately buried. Classic IOTA mob behavior. + +I don't care about their mass downvotes. In a time of deceit, speaking the truth is a revolutionary act. + +They can brigade all they want. People need to know the truth about IOTA and who is this Linus making IOTA shill posts full of lies and false promises everyday. + +Even redditor for 1 hour accounts are here 😂. Imagine if these guys spent this much effort on development as social engineering. +Holy hell the number of people and relatives that come out of nowhere was surprising. He only told a few people but it quickly spread. The real problem is not those irrelevant people, but his closest and direct relatives. Our family seemed stable when it came to money. No one ever seemed like they'd be like this other than 1 or 2 members. Some of his siblings are fighting him, his mum is just being a horrible person. The things that have been said left me in shock. My parents/siblings have been trying to resolve this but I also see the greed in some of their eyes. + +&#x200B; + +I feel bad for the guy. We spent the first week just talking and doing random shit to distract him from the situation at home. Some of his relatives turned on his girlfriend blaming her when she has kept quiet the whole time and just supporting my cousin. Honestly, I'm worried for him. We don't know how to handle the future, but for now, we're just making sure he spends it wisely and limits himself. + +&#x200B; + +Seriously guys, LPT even if you think your family is not like other families, and money won't cause this. Just stay quiet. It's for the best. I've always felt this way, but after seeing it... just wow + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +I hope everything makes sense up there cuz I have yet to sleep and I feel like I'm rambling +I’m up a lot, but I’m closing out all my positions to start over. + +I thought I knew what I was doing, but after taking some graduate level finance courses, I learned I didn’t actually know anything about assessing the fundamental value of a company, projecting future enterprise value, or even where I wanted to invest my money. + +I got super lucky over the last year (no meme stocks, I’m not that lucky), but it could just as easily have been really, really bad (I’ve got a few that I’m just holding now in case they recover). + +I’m not even sure if this a value add to any of you new folks, but the adage of “some people get rich in spite of themselves” is absolutely true. I didn’t get rich or anything, but I did basically everything wrong and still made money. + +Don’t assume that whatever method you’re using is sustainable long term just cause you made a bunch of money by hitting pay dirt despite your ignorance. Actually take the time to learn what the hell you’re throwing money at, and how much risk you’re actually taking. +I’m 14, and my dad just talked to me about the stock market. For Christmas, my parents were just going to give me money to buy the new iPhone, but my dad takes to me about putting that money into stock. He told me that over time, I would earn more money by buying shares of a company. I have a very basic understanding of how this whole thing works, but I need more advice. Any tips? What company do I buy shares in? How does this work? Is my dad right in thinking that instead of buying a new phone, I should buy shares? Any help is appreciated. Thanks. +I've been looking at some airline stocks and they all took a major hit and havent recovered a lot yet while the rest of the stockmarket is going ballistic. In the Netherlands the government is handing out a cash to help KLM stay alive in these time under the narrative "They can't fail, because it would hurt the economy too much". Not sure, but I can imagine other countries wanting to keep their national airline alive. I don't know a lot about airlines and their financials or other possible important factors, what do you guys think? +Edit: Thanks for the awards! + +Edit: This is for the person who recommended the Zonta organization to me. I just reached out to them through email and Facebook and they got back to me and said that they're going to make some phone calls for me tomorrow and see if they can figure out some way to help me. Thank you. I'm sorry but I couldn't find your comment. + +So like the title says, I've been staying in my car. I left last week after 4 years of abuse. I'm sick of having my phone and keys taken away and not being able to talk to anyone or even leave the house without his approval. I'm tired of being hit. I called the domestic violence shelter for the umpteenth time and as usual, they're full. + +I've been given permission to park on the street behind a shelter at night but have to leave during the day. I talked to an outreach center and I'm waiting to talk to a case manager to see what sort of emergency housing I qualify for. I've been applying to jobs all week. + +I'm running low on gas and money and I'm worried that if I can't move the car, the shelter will tow it and I can't afford to get it out of impound if that happens. I'm really just biding my time now until I can talk to someone. I'm not asking for money, just venting. I'd like someone to talk to. It's been so long since anyone has cared about me. + +I don't have any family. I'm an only child and my parents haven't been sympathetic at all. They weren't good parents at all. Abusive drug addicts so no help there. They told me they wouldn't help me even if they could because "I should have left a long time ago, it must not be that bad since you stayed". + +So I'm really just feeling alone. If anyone would like to talk, you can DM me. Thanks for reading. +A lot of people are talking about low valuations in the market lately, however, a lot of trash companies are still above 40 PE and good bluechips are still 15-25 PE which is on the richer side. As such I have been looking at REIT's where you can find yields up to 10% on well established long performing trusts. However, when the yield goes up it indicates that bad things are about to happen or at least being priced in. Add to that the fact that REIT and preffered shares are not a pure fixed income asset and do not behave completely analogous to a corporate bond for example, this all makes the current situation quite tricky to judge. + +I am currently holding a small portion of my portfolio in REIT's like $O and $WELL but trying to understand if now is either the worst possible time to load up on more of these types of assets or a good time. This is not about the type of holding inside the REIT as obviously mall and office REIT suffered during the pandemic when others did not like data centers, more about the asset class in itself. Do you guys own REIT's in this market climate? +So recently I had my Debit Card's number stolen and it was used to make a couple ATM withdraws. I noticed it and immediately called my bank to cancel the card. They said that they did but the next day another $300 was taken from the account. I called again and the new customer service rep told me it was never cancelled. I am furious because more money was taken from me based on the first customer service rep's negligence. I have already filed disputes for the charges but is there anything else I can do? +Hey everyone, long time reader, first time poster. I work as a contractor, and as such my company does not offer overwhelming great benefits. Which for the most part is ok because my wife has great insurance through her job. The one crux is that my job offers a 401k but no match at all. I do have a Roth IRA that I contribute to per pay check. I was wondering if I was able to put money towards my wife 401k as her company does match up to I believe 11%. +# dump amzn immediately! + +There Q4 net incomes are total BS!!! + +"Fourth quarter 2021 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gain of +$11.8 billion included in non-operating income from our common stock investment in Rivian Automotive, Inc., which +completed an initial public offering in November." + +They include a **valuation gain** of their investment in rivian from fcking december: rivian was at around 100$ in december and since then fell to barely 60$. + +Thats a 40% loss since december: **4.72 fcking billion of net income is BS** + +I will sell all my calls + stocks at market open and I advise you to do the same. +I noticed that this sub is responding to serious concerns about Cardano by calling it FUD or calling the poster out for allegedly being only into short term gains or buying the peak. + +People are also blaming the bear market that started in November and the war that started recently as the sole reason for the dip, even though the ADA price has been falling non-stop since September. + +So far, I have not met a single person here that made an actual argument for ADAs long term value. + +I would like to know what’s so special about it? I get that ETH is currently unbearable and its true that Cardano has Proof-of-Stake while ETH doesn't. But there are literally dozens of Proof-of-stake blockchains with working smart contracts and a blooming network of dApps. + +Tezos, Harmony, Fantom, Juno, Algorand, Solana, BSC, Tron, Flow, Cronos, Secret Network, Oasis, Near, Klaytn, Celo, Avalanche, Moonbeam and many more are proof of stake and have tons of dApps. They all have their pros and cons, but every single one of them is much further in their development than Cardano. Some of them also seem more scalable for the long term like Harmony and Near. + +So, what about Cardano is so promising? Why is everyone so sure that it will outperform all this other ETH competitors? + +Inb4 all the FUD comments +^(Including but not limited to;) + +|**Name**|**Organization**|**Summary**| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Ken Griffin (CEO)|Citadel|Market Maker that actively participates in illegal naked short selling, lied to Congress under oath about ever having communicated with Robinhood| +|Frank La Salla (President, CEO)|Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC)|Own Cede & Co., the behind-the-scenes owner of all assets in the markets, have allowed illegal naked short selling for years, possibly decades| +|Robert Druskin (Non-Exec. Chairman)|Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC)|Own Cede & Co., the behind-the-scenes owner of all assets in the markets, have allowed illegal naked short selling for years, possibly decades| +|Michael Bodson (Former CEO, 2012-2022)|Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC)|Own Cede & Co., the behind-the-scenes owner of all assets in the markets, have allowed illegal naked short selling for years, possibly decades| +|Rostin Benham (CEO)|Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)|Removed all reporting requirements for swaps until 2023| +|David Inggs (Board of Dir.) & Citadel (Global Head of Ops.)|Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) & Citadel|Obvious conflict of interest| +|Hester Peirce|Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)|Multiple votes against proposals [in favor of retail traders](https://twitter.com/hesterpeirce/status/1461074740089606149?lang=en) and [HF transparency](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sdc0ce/hester_peirce_voted_no_today_for_hedge_fund/)| +|Steve Cohen (CEO)|Point 72|Global asset management company that actively participates in illegal naked short selling| +|Jeffrey Yass (CEO)|Susquehanna|Trading firm that actively participates in illegal naked short selling| +|Doug Cifu (CEO)|Virtu|Market Maker that actively participates in illegal naked short selling| +|Robert Colby (CEO)|Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)|*sElF rEgUlAtEd OrGaNiZaTiOn To ReGuLaTe BrOkErAgEs AnD eXcHaNgEs*| +|Andrej Bolkovic (CEO)|Options Clearing Corporation (OCC)|Allows shorts to avoid closing and roll FTDs via options manipulation| +|William Capuzzi (CEO)|Apex Fintech|Clearing Corporation instructing brokerages to turn off buy button in Jan 2021| +|Jim Cramer|Mad Money/CNBC|Engages in market manipulation on a daily basis, involved in short and distort schemes like [Dendreon](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-09/s70809-4614.pdf) from late 2000's| +|Marc Rowan (CEO)|Apollo Management|American Private Equity firm with $512B AUM| +|Gabe Plotkin|Melvin Capital|Restricted buying of certain stocks in Jan 2021 in coordination with Citadel, Provides free trading by selling PFOF to comapnies like Citadel| +|Vlad Tenev|Robinhood|Restricted buying of certain stocks in Jan 2021 in coordination with Citadel, Provides free trading by selling PFOF to comapnies like Citadel| +|Jamie Dimon (CEO)|JP Morgan Chase|Took $[2.3B](https://www.warren.senate.gov/oversight/letters/warren-booker-maloney-blast-jpmorgan-chase-bank-of-america-and-wells-fargo-for-continuing-to-profit-from-overdraft-fees-that-target-low-income-americans) in overdraft fees in Q4 2020| +|David Solomon (CEO)|Goldman Sachs|Can't [afford](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/xbzveu/goldman_sachs_cant_even_afford_coffee_for_their/) coffee| +|Brian Moynihan (CEO)|Bank of America|Charged [$1.14B](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-bank-overdraft-fees-costing-consumers-billions/?leadSource=uverify%20wall) in overdraft fees in 2021| +|Jane Fraser (CEO)|Citigroup|Charged $[15.45B](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/business/citigroup-overdraft-fees-banks.html) in overdraft fees in 2019| +|Charles Scharf (CEO)|Wells Fargo|Charged [$1.41B](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-bank-overdraft-fees-costing-consumers-billions/?leadSource=uverify%20wall) in overdraft fees in 2021| +|Noel Quinn (CEO)|HSBC|Fined $[85M](https://www.reuters.com/business/hsbc-fined-85-mln-anti-money-laundering-failings-2021-12-17/) in 2021 for anti money laundering failings| +|François Villeroy de Galhau (CEO)|Bank of International Settlements|The BIS is to global finance as the DTCC is to the stock market, more to come\*| +|Agustín Carstens (General Manager)|Bank of International Settlements|The BIS is to global finance as the DTCC is to the stock market, more to come\*| +|Christoph Schweizer(CEO)|Boston Consulting Group 💩(BCG)|Directly involved in bankrupting companies by planting malicious executives| +|Rich Lesser (Former CEO, 2012-2021)|Boston Consulting Group 💩(BCG)|Directly involved in bankrupting companies by planting malicious executives| +|Michael Milken (Former employee)|Drexel Burnham|Served 22 months in prison in 90's after pleading guilty to 6 felonies, coined the term 'junk bond', [friends with KG](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iDDDRfZ0I0&ab_channel=Citadel)| + +Will update with suggestions +For those of you who have been using their methodology , what changes have you made and why? + +For example, I started paying more attention to fundamentals, whereas they say it as 4-letter word. + +How about you? +Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum. +Idera Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of drugs for oncology and rare disease indications in the United States. + + +I am surprised to see the IV to be so high, it's close to 400%. On Monday, the stock was trading at 4.80$ and I sold the following puts: + + +Put 3/19 4$ for 0.34$ +Put 4/16 3$ for 0.64$ + + +Today the stock is up 5% (5.40$), and the premium on the put 4/16 3$ is still quite good! The analysts are bullish on it, historical volatility is around 100%, no earning report before end of April etc... What am I missing ? + +Edit: RIP 😢 +Since TD Ameritrade's ToS has been down or intermittently failing for 4 trading sessions now, I went ahead and opened a TastyWorks IBA on Monday afternoon. I have held an IBA with TD for about 3 years and was an avid supporter of ToS. However, as an active trader, I find the main platform (ToS) being down and being reduced to limited web & mobile trades to be completely unacceptable. I closed all of my positions on ToS this morning and did a balance transfer to my bank to load up TW (Hopefully by Monday). + +I know a lot of users here use TW as their main brokerage, so as I'm waiting to load up funds and resume my normal trading schedule. I was interested in seeing if some of you wouldn't mind sharing some of the pros and cons of the platform. + +The desktop platform seems pretty comparable to ToS which is no surprise. I'm a little disappointed already that I can't delete the pre-loaded watch lists that I couldn't care less about. (Sorry Mark, no one cares about what you're watching.) Other than that, it seems like it will be more than suitable for my needs. I think the layout is a little cleaner than ToS too. More intuitive at least. I'm more concerned about the fills and real-time data reporting. I had that issue with ToS when I only had cash options years ago, there was a real-time reporting delay which skewed the fills, asks/bids on stock equities. I have "The Works" on TW so I'm hoping this won't be an issue. + +Also, has anyone actually received any of the rewards from the referral program? If so, what? Has anyone has gotten that shiny new Tesla or the Apple product bundle? The latter seems like a feasible goal, the former not so much. + +If the referral program is legit and the platform is good, I'm going to be spamming the living daylights out of everyone in my social network lol. + +&#x200B; + +Note: I am not looking for brokerage recommendations. Just some feedback from people who actively trade on TW so I can gauge my expectations. +I am trying to find credit spread opportunities for next week, but I am having trouble selecting strike prices that would statistically give me profit over many trades. + +Example. I want to do a credit spread on SPY with expiration date July 2. I can sell the 282 strike which sits at 0.3 delta for 6.01 premium. I can then buy the 277 strike for 4.99 premium. + +My maximum profit is about 100$ and my max loss is 500$. + +Now let's pretend I do this trade 10 times. I can expect than on average, I will win 7 times and lose 3 times. So I could potentially gain 700$ and lose 1500$. + +If I look at it this way, it is clear to me that this trade will lose in the long run. In fact, I cannot seem to find any strike that would give me a good return over many runs. + +So now I have a couple questions. First, am I missing something obvious here? And second, what risk:reward ratio do you aim for for vertical spreads. I know that in iron condors some people recommend a 3:1 but I cannot find anything for vertical spreads. + +Thanks + +Edit: max loss is 400 not 500 as mentioned below in the comments. +Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum. +Trading psychology is a very important part of being a successful trader. We constantly balance fear and greed. It is easy to go the dark side and then get yourself in trouble. Curious what everyone else says to themselves to stay out of trouble and trade well? + +Here are some of my favorites: + +Booyahs to Cramer for this one, "Hogs get slaughtered." + +Don't chase the price, let it come to you. + +Stick with your trading plan. + +It's ok to NOT trade and sit it out during unfavorable conditions. + +Don't force a trade if nothing looks good enough. + +Don't get personally attached to any one trade. Be prepared to let it go. + +Remember risk management. + +&#x200B; + +Curious what things the rest of you say to yourself because everyone has self talk to keep them going. Looking for some helpful gems to add to my talking points. +I am trying to find credit spread opportunities for next week, but I am having trouble selecting strike prices that would statistically give me profit over many trades. + +Example. I want to do a credit spread on SPY with expiration date July 2. I can sell the 282 strike which sits at 0.3 delta for 6.01 premium. I can then buy the 277 strike for 4.99 premium. + +My maximum profit is about 100$ and my max loss is 500$. + +Now let's pretend I do this trade 10 times. I can expect than on average, I will win 7 times and lose 3 times. So I could potentially gain 700$ and lose 1500$. + +If I look at it this way, it is clear to me that this trade will lose in the long run. In fact, I cannot seem to find any strike that would give me a good return over many runs. + +So now I have a couple questions. First, am I missing something obvious here? And second, what risk:reward ratio do you aim for for vertical spreads. I know that in iron condors some people recommend a 3:1 but I cannot find anything for vertical spreads. + +Thanks + +Edit: max loss is 400 not 500 as mentioned below in the comments. +I usually close this position out after a few hours with a 95-100% profit. + +Theta eats it alive and after a few hours of moving sideways or opposite by position it loses almost all value. + +Today I made $401 after on a 3230/3235 spread after AMZN peaked at 3202 I sold the call credit spread after speculating it would be hard pressed to get much more above 3200. It dipped down to 3180-3190 range and stayed there most the day. + +Last week, same strategy for $550 credit. And the last few weeks I did a $390 and $610 credit spread. + +Has anyone else implemented this strategy for easy (but potentially risky) gains? +Can anyone here team help me. I'm burned. And can't roll up anymore because the max call is 60 . + +&#x200B; + +I actually had multiple iron condors and I know I am in dips shit when GME goes up again by 50% on Monday! What should I do? +I have been looking for some stocks to start the wheel strategy with 500 dollars so if anyone has some stocks for that please drop the tickers in the comments thank you +Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep bragging to a minimum; remember every dollar you make is a dollar someone else lost. +Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum. +https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-worst-of-the-global-selloff-isnt-here-yet-banks-and-investors-warn-11584877018?mod=mhp + + +The most brutal stretch for global markets since the financial crisis likely isn’t over yet, say investors and analysts who believe it is too early to assess the possible scale of economic damage from the coronavirus. + +In just a few weeks, U.S. stocks have lost roughly a third of their value. In recent weeks, investors have even fled assets like U.S. government bonds and gold that typically do well during times of turmoil, underscoring the extent of the panic and the shock to once-robust investor sentiment delivered by the global health emergency. + + +But many analysts and portfolio managers warn that neither those declines nor recent extraordinary actions by the Federal Reserve are likely to signal the end of the market crunch. They note that by historical standards, stocks’ declines look modest compared with some prior downturns, given the early indications of how much damage virus-related shutdowns are likely to do to global growth. The S&P 500 is down 32% from its February peak. In comparison, stocks tumbled 57% during the financial crisis and 49% after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 before beginning to rebound. + + +What’s more, some investors say, Wall Street is only now coming to grips with the dislocation being wrought by the virus. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said this past week they expect U.S. economic output to tumble 24% in the second quarter, one of the worst readings on record and potentially foretelling a U.S. recession even if growth picks back up in the second half of the year. + +With everyday life grinding to a halt from New York to Milan, the world’s biggest money managers and banks say they believe one of the most prominent market casualties from this episode could be long-term investors’ ingrained inclination to step in to buy the dip. Before the coronavirus outbreak, investors’ faith in the strength of the U.S. economy had led them repeatedly to rush back into the market after pullbacks to scoop up discounted shares, a response that became so routine it came to be known by its own initials, BTD or, with more intensity, BTFD. Now, many believe it could be some time before that behavior returns. + +“The ultimate impact of the virus on economies and markets is highly speculative at this time since there is so much we do not know about how the outbreak will actually evolve from here,’’ said Rick Lacaille, global chief investment officer of State Street Global Advisors. “We need clarity on many fronts.” + + +Investors will get more of a sense of how badly the economy has been hit in the coming days when data on the manufacturing and services sectors and jobless claims are released. + +The latter data point has already spiked—leading Goldman to predict there could be an “unprecedented surge” in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits over the next week. + + +The firm forecasts the S&P 500 could be in for a 41% fall from peak to trough. Bank of America Corp. believes the selloff might not ease until the S&P 500 hits 1800—a 47% drop from its February record. And Credit Suisse Group AG , which notes stocks didn’t hit their trough during the SARS pandemic in 2003 until a week after the number of new infections peaked, estimates the S&P 500 could be in for a 35% drop overall. + +If economic output shrinks by double-digit percentages in the second quarter, it would be a devastating pullback even by historical standards: Adjusted for inflation and seasonality, GDP fell less than 5 percentage points from peak to trough during the 2007-09 recession, which was the longest downturn since World War II. + +To put a floor on the current market rout, some of the world’s biggest investors say they need three things: better information on the scale of the coronavirus pandemic, powerful support from governments and more forceful intervention in markets. + + +A key issue is the uncertainty surrounding what it will take to halt the fast-moving health crisis, and the economic fallout of such measures, investors say. Governments are using a range of strategies, from stringent lockdowns in Italy, France and Spain to looser recommendations of social distancing in the U.K. and much of the U.S. As the measures vary, so does the level of economic disruption. + +Investors need “clarity on the ultimate scale of the problem and evidence that the infection’s curves are bending globally,” said Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Institute. Credible news on development of a vaccine and treatments would also help restore confidence, he said. + + +Central banks in some of the world’s biggest economies have taken steps to cut interest rates to bolster economic growth and are acting together to boost the dollar’s availability. Investors are looking for governments to also coordinate actions. + +“One thing we’ve learned in the crisis in 2008 is that policy is a lot more than the sum of its parts if it’s done as a global response,” said Mr. Boivin. + + +So far, governments don’t seem to have deployed enough fiscal stimulus—especially in Europe, said Didier Borowski, head of macroeconomic research at Amundi. The relief and stimulus measures should probably be equivalent to 2% to 3% of the eurozone’s economic output, he said. + +But others believe fiscal stimulus won’t do much to arrest the market selloff. + + +Cornerstone Macro analyzed the stock market’s response to bursts of fiscal stimulus during the 2001 and 2008 downturns and found the S&P 500 actually continued falling over a one-year period. + +“Selloffs end when the problem that caused the selloff is under control,” said Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at the firm. + +Another area of concern for investors: the fact that credit markets, encompassing both the safest sovereign bonds as well as more speculative corporate debt, have been in turmoil due to liquidity constraints, the pressure to unwind the riskiest trades and investors’ demand for cash. + +Investors would like to see “more aggressive steps by policy makers to provide some stability in fixed-income markets,’’ said Evan Brown, head of multiasset strategy at UBS Asset Management. “This includes a Fed/Treasury partnership to provide lending against corporate bonds as collateral and the ECB aggressively stepping up purchases of Italian debt.” + +The Fed said earlier this month that it would provide $1.5 trillion through short-term lending and spend $500 billion on Treasury securities to improve market functioning. On Wednesday, the Treasury Department approved a new lending facility from the Fed to act as a backstop for money-market mutual funds. While this move is welcomed, investors say that the market is still weighing its effectiveness. + +“Market participants need to feel they are backstopped without question,’’ said State Street’s Mr. Lacaille. “Arguably this is what the Fed and Treasury Department have tried to signal and achieve, turning from messaging into action, but it seems there is a leap of faith needed by the market too.’’ +If you are one of these people: + + +1. Do you enjoy a comfortable living? + +2. About how much do you make per year (if you’re fine with sharing)? + +3. How much capital did you start off with? + +4. What was your previous job/career? + +5. How are your stress levels? + + +Really curious to hear from such people. +# Update: Getting alot of interest, so in order not to violate any rules and also organize this challenge, I created subreddit: 5kto100kChallenge. + +## r/5kto100kChallenge + +# I will also look into a discord server and also if we can do like a leaderboard ranking etc. + +We could do a discord as well, also im down post weekly market outlooks or plays. + +SMALL ACCOUNT CHALLANGE (5k to 100k) + +I will be doing the small account challenge (5k to 100k) + +If anybody else would like to do this challenge with me, that would be great and maybe we can have like 5 to 10 traders give update to where we are at for this challenge. + +I will be using options to day trade and swing trade. + +For the small account challenge, I put some thought into it, as small accounts have some limitations. + +The first debate was wether I should go with a cash account or a margin account for this challenge. I finally decided I needed a cash account, since I will be doing multiple trades and be using more then 5 trades in a rolling 5 day period. This seriously hampers account growth, since it will be without margin or the ability to do option level 3 spreads. + +So for the first goal, its to reach 25k as soon as possible or to split your account into 2 once you hit 10k by using one cash account and one margin account. + +So first milestone will be 25k and final milestone will be 100k. I hope to be at my goal in less then 18 month from now. For full transparency I will be loggin each trade. +I've seen some pretty nasty comments towards small time investors in some or the discord channels I follow recently. + +Crypro isn't just for the rich, everyone is welcome here and by buying bitcoin and other cryptos you are investing in the future. + +If someone had invested just 1 dollar a month back at the start they would be minted right now. + +Ignore the haters and if you want to buy in, do just that. Just remember to only invest what you can afford to lose! +Yeah like, u/prussia_dev made this cool faucet for me. https://www.moonfaucet.cc/. + +**UPDATE**: issues with claiming the faucet have been fixed and the faucet wallet has also been bound to an account u/MoonFaucetDotCC for easier tipping, I'll be using this account to post analytics and faucet related updates weekly. [Scuffed analytics post made by myself, if anyone's good at charts and wants to help out with the planned weekly or biweekly analytics posts that'd be *amazing*](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pvcfm2/moonfaucetcc_faucet_balance_usage_analytics_on/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +A faucet is usually a website that gives out small amounts of crypto to newbies to get them into it but can be used by everyone. They either come as purely nonprofit running on donations or pay for themselves with advertisments. + +Pays out between 0.01 and 0.09 moons per use (Set to change) More Moons in the faucet = Bigger payout + +At some point may accept Moons for ad space on there or something. Understandable have a mediocre day. Donate to the faucet wallet if your cool so I dont go broke. + +If I find any of you abusing it I'll come over there and break your kneecaps (VPNs and Proxies). + +How do I get my vault address? + +Go onto Reddit on your phone and open your vault. Under your name you'll see your vault address that you can then tap/hold to copy to clipboard. + +https://imgur.com/gallery/NgAKKi4 + +https://imgur.com/a/pAUGCOJ + +Then go to the faucet and paste that into where it asks for your wallet and then do the captcha, tick the little box saying your not an robot and enjoy the free moons. + +Cooldown on faucet claims is 24 hours. + +**Credits**. + +u/Prussia_dev for forking the faucet from his Nano faucet and putting up with me. + +u/OfficialNewMoonville for not writing this post because 'Do it yourself'. + +u/Hotdogbitchface and u/Cryptardo for existing + +And everyone else who was supportive of the project and gave positive feedback. + +**Edit** u/Cintre, fellow frenchie and Reddit detective (I do not have a gun to my head right now) + +Go checkout Prussia's other faucets [Nano faucet](https://faucet.prussia.dev/nano). + +Also thanks u/IHaventEvenGotADog for chucking 100 moons into the faucet. + +Thanks to the NOA for sponsoring this faucet with mustache rides. + +**Edits:** You can see transaction history and balance [here](https://testnet.redditspace.com/address/0xAb7211621fc1c0594AC5825Cc27aed5034ffBDEb/token-transfers). + +The GitHub link is [here.](https://github.com/moonfaucet/Moon-Faucet). + +**I'm seeing a fair few comments about people being unable to claim, I've brought it up with the Dev and we'll look into it**. + +(This has been fixed). + +**Apparent new issue with claiming after we switched over to the new frontend, looking for a fix as we speak**. + +(This has been fixed.) +I wanna yoink the newer nintendo switch (oled version) and I want to pay in weekly sets. It's around $500, and afterpay is quarterly payments so that's around $125 a week. I make over than that in a week, so I would be able to pay weekly. I can buy it now, but I feel paying in chunks would leave me with more flexibility. So if that's all planned out, would it be a good option? I've heard many mixed reviews of afterpay so I'm hoping anyone else in aus could give some advice. Any help is appreciated! + +EDIT: I should mention I'm 17 and don't have to worry too much about living costs as I live with family, sorry if there's confusion. + +EDIT: I ended just putting it on laybuy, as I can pay it off overtime, I just won't have it immediately, but it seems like a much better option as I've heard afterpay and companies like those can bring trouble, mentally and financially. Thank you for the help! +Insurance company will only pay for 60 percent because it was " not handled as an emergency" even though she went to the emergency room. Other wise they would pay eighty percent. What should we do to pay the least possible? +Less sugar, more fruit. Less soda, more water. Less driving, more walking. Less worry, more sleep. Less words, more action. Less fiat, more Bitcoin + +Hope you are well +So my story is that after a year of mostly sim and about 3 months live, I finally had a profitable month in June. Huge success, 5 green weeks in a row. Felt like I had turned a corner. + +And now I've had six red days in a row and am close to going back to sim until August. I learn every day and make adjustments every day, but still slumping. I trade stocks, mostly high and mid floats. Stuff like NIO. + +Success feels so close, yet so out of reach. Any advice? +It’s not just traditional advocates and stakeholders who are fed up with Senate inaction on marijuana legalization. Even the ice cream giant Ben & Jerry’s is calling out senators for failing to advance reform. + +https://www.marijuanamoment.net/even-ben-jerrys-is-fed-up-with-senate-inaction-on-marijuana-legalization/ + +In the run-up to the unofficial cannabis holiday 4/20 on Wednesday, the company is launching a campaign in partnership with the ACLU, asking fans to “take action” by putting pressure on the Senate to follow the lead of the House and pass a bill to end prohibition. + +Ben & Jerry’s recognized that its advocacy for marijuana reform isn’t surprising—and they’ve previously leveraged 4/20 to raise attention to the issue—but this campaign takes direct aim at the Senate, which has been a significant roadblock on the path to legalization both under Republican and Democratic control. + +"The Black and Brown community have borne the high cost of cannabis prohibition and the system of mass incarceration that it has fueled, while white men reap the financial benefits of the legalized cannabis industry,” Chris Miller, global head of activism strategy at Ben & Jerry’s, said in a press release. “That’s why the Senate must immediately pass legislation that begins to right the wrongs of the decades long war on drugs by legalizing cannabis and expunging records while restoring equity to the booming legal cannabis industry.” + +“Legalizing cannabis without justice is Half Baked!” the company said, in a reference to one of its popular flavors, which itself is a reference to a classic stoner comedy film of that name. +We are looking to buy a house that is quite frankly, a bit of a state. It’s 8 bedrooms and currently divided into basement, ground and top floor flats (single name of title deed for entire building). The plan was to purchase and convert the main residence into a family home, retaining the basement as a self contained flat that would be used to allow friends and family to stay. The EAs I have spoken to suggest once converted it could reach an additional £300k in value. + +We have had a full level 3 survey and know what we’re going into but were slightly concerned about whether we’d get a ‘traditional’ mortgage on it. All the reasons we thought they’d decline it for were fine but the valuation said the building was uninhabitable, even though it’s currently tenanted! + +Our broker has suggested a route forward could be a Bridging Loan and has obtained some quotes. This is a new option for me so was looking for people’s experiences? The plan would be to take the bridging loan for 12 months, reconfigure the building back to one residence then apply for a mortgage once done. + +Are there any pitfalls with a bridging loan we need to consider (besides price)? Our architect we’ve engaged thinks the entire set of works including refurbishment of the entire building on top of just the reconfiguration works needed to get a mortgage would be 6 months. +I drove by a McDonald's the other day and they had a sign out saying they were hiring $18/h positions. + +(EDIT: McDonald's is just a big name example. Many other entry level jobs are seeing similar wage increases right now. I would not choose to work at McDonald's as my post FI side gig, but I could see myself being a part time crossing guard, lifeguard, bank teller... etc.) + +Higher wages for entry level jobs might make it less stressful pulling the trigger on FIRE. + +On the other hand cost of goods may increase accordingly, decreasing the purchasing power of your FIRE savings. I believe many people point to data that shows increasing minimum wage doesn't cause inflation, but to be honest I've never looked at it closely and even if I did I'm not sure I would be able to analyze correctly. + +To me right now I look at $18/h and think "that could be good side money if I wanted to work part time post FIRE to minimize posibility of failure while also keeping some responsibily/structure/accountability in my life." + +Anyway, just a little opinion piece. Happy Holidays everyone. +I know we all joke about how autistic and retarded we are but to be honest we are far from it, and there are a lot of intellectuals on this sub. But just because you are smart doesn't make you money. Let me explain... + +According to Gallup (link here) about 55% of Americans own stocks/ETF's, which is around half the population (170 Million People). + + [https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx](https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx) + +OK, so what? So... + +I have been digging around google a bit, and I didn't find an exact figure but according to various articles and estimates there are about 5 - 10 Million active day/swing traders in the U.S. each day. Lets just call it 10 million. + +So here's us, all 10 Million of us and we have a plan. Any LOGICAL person would agree when looking at this market that it HAS to do X - Y or Z, right? I mean we look at the market all day we know what we're doing. WRONG! Those other 160 million people that listen to the media, politicians and what their brokers say will FUCKING CRUSH YOU and there is a good reason. Volume. + +Yea, there are some "lucky" people on WSB, that's a fact. But 95% of us lose. But you don't have to... + +**Stop trying to be so damn smart**. Listen, these people are sheep, OK? They are sheep. They run in any direction they are told to and they run together, just like the Bulls. Bears are solitary creatures for good reason. Nothing is LOGICAL about this and it never will be. I have tried to convince myself time and time again that "this can't be real", "that's impossible". Well wake up Lucy, it's fucking real. + +This whole system is BIAS and the MM's that run it would rather WATCH PEOPLE DIE than let this market fall. Yea it falls a little bit here and there, and looking at past charts and graphs you would think that A - B - C would happen but its fucking 2020. The markets have learned from past mistakes, politicians and MM's are more cunning, there are algorithms and new laws. + +The shit is rigged and it's more rigged now than it has ever been, as obvious as that may seem. + +I want everyone to make tendies, but most of us won't. Because to be honest this post probably wont be taken seriously and I understand. It's not fun to be a sheep. There's no thrill. Like why even do it if you're not taking a risk. I get it. I lost 10K this month. That might not be as much as some people but it still hurts. I'ts a ten thousand dollar lesson I had to learn. But **YOU** don't have to. + +https://preview.redd.it/9otd1jlm6bt41.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a4fb289197e68624fe1f1e99eac4d50005bda922 + +I still don't think we hit bottom, but I know a lot of us Bears are discouraged. All I can say is the next time it dips, if it does, seize the opportunity, don't get greedy and **FOLLOW THE SHEEP**. + +If you wanna be a Bear, I get it. If you are a Bull, I can see why. There is no right or wrong. Don't get caught up in what SHOULD happen, or why "this shit is fucked up". **You don't have to make sense, you just have to make money.** You guys got this. I believe in all of us. I really see a lot of potential here in WSB. Anyway you guys I appreciate you a lot, I've been on this sub for a short time but I have learned so much. I thank anyone that took their time to read this. Happy trading everyone. +Hi all, i'm (25) hoping to complete on a house in the coming months with my partner. We will both be using our Lifetime ISA's towards this. This will of course wipe out my LISA balance. My question is, should I continue to pay in to the LISA afterwards (with a new goal of retirement), hopefully £4k a year, to make the most of the 25% bonus? Or would it be better to pay in to a personal pension? Any advice would be welcome. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Just to add. I'm on £26k, my pension contribution is 8% and my employer pays in 16% +So, I was just reading the Intelligent Investor (updated 2004 version) and there's a paragraph about how "In February 2000, hedge-fund manager James J. Cramer" was basically pumping and hyping internet stocks and that putting $10000 into his picks would have left you with $597 by the end of 2002. (Truly impressive even for me having lost 52% on CD Projekt) + +Now there's memes about him saying he wants as much DIDI shares as possible and I'm sure there are many other examples. (I'm not suggesting anyone can tell if a stock will be delisted or not unless you work for the government). + +So, has anyone tried or backtested a strategy where you short everything he says to buy and buy everything he tells people to sell? +I have had a mortgage offer from HSBC that expires in September. I have to take a 20% pay cut temporarily. Will HSBC pull the offer because of this temporary reduction? Or will a letter from my.employer saying this is only temporary be sufficient? +I'm interested in spending a period of 3 to 6 months to learn how to earn some money using the internet, and I don't mean to become rich or something, but maybe enough to pay for my weekly grocery or my rent (I'm a full time student and I live in a share house in Australia, my goal would be to make about $100/week or a little more). + +My first thought goes to stock exchange, and I know it can be pretty complicated and requires quite some understanding of finance and economics, but that's the only thing I can think of. And I am ready to teach myself whatever is needed anyway, if that is the only way. + +However, is there anything else that I could teach myself in order to get some little money from the internet using some gained knowledge?? I don't know, even an ebay shop or something, anything that I can do using my computer when I'm not busy with lectures and homeworks from uni. + +I know I'm kinda asking for some kind of utopia here, if it were easy to make money from home everybody would do it. But as I said, I'm willing to spend quite some time to prepare myself first, and then try. And I don't want to get rich or save money, just get some help to pay for my weekly things. + +Thanks! + +**EDIT:** Wow guys, what started as an innocent question became a very hot topic and my hottest post! Apparently we're all full-time broke students here, aren't we? :) Thank you all for you amazing support and ideas! + +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. +Well, congratulations. You guys have positioned yourselves to be in the best place imaginable to capitalize on a perfect scenario that will explode your customer base and membership moving forward. + +You still have one mountain to climb, however. + +YOUR USER INTERFACE IS EMBARRASSINGLY TERRIBLE. I am well aware of the time, effort, energy, and capital you’ve spent building your app and website over the years, and that’s great. However, RobinHood has walked the fucking dog on you when it comes to simplicity, ease of use, and approachability. They’ve brought millions of new investors to the market, and have had world changing successes, of which I’m sure you’re all well aware of (you know, like when they changed the game my forcing you to make trades free?). + +I’m a Gen X Millennial, and although I may be able to adapt to your convoluted-ass website and mobile app, a lot of the future investors will not have the patience or inclination to do the same. *You have to change it, and do it quickly.* It needs to be sleek, modern, and user-friendly. You don’t have to copy RobinHood (hell, why would you want to?), but you do have to come up with something that can keep the influx of new customers from jumping ship once their aboard, and **I’m not talking about making it hard for us to leave, you have to make it easy for us to stay.** + +The last week’s debacle is as best an opportunity as you’ll ever have to catapult yourself into the front of your industry. It’s the World Series, bottom of the 9th, the bases are loaded, and you’re down by 3. RobinHood is pitching with a broken arm, and you are the batter with the .989 average. + +Will you hit the Home Run, or let the ball roll across home plate? +Don't wait or it's too late. Starting today you can now own 4 bitcoins for just the low low price $999.99. But wait, there's more! Included in every purchase is one **Emotional Roller Coaster Ride** for as long as you own your bitcoins. + +*Please buy responsibly + +Hi! Myself and my partner are moving home soon and nationwide has given as a 5x salary decision in principle and we are on relatively low wages but have a 20% deposit, they seem to be the only bank/ building society offering such a high multiple! Some ads offering 4.75x, Can anyone advise if this is really achievable in the final application? I was always under the impression that 5x multiples was reserved for the high earners? +Almost 5 million in 5 days. Listen up retards, because nobody gets the luxury of an intel brief like this. This isn’t AskReddit. Some people’s kids aren’t going to eat as well because of this movement, some of your kids. A lot of you are brand new to being exposed this way, and being sensationalized into doing it harder and faster than you ever would’ve. The people who control the game are salivating over this. Learn these 3 lessons as fast as possible, I’m not saying they will save you money, but they might save you from being blindsided by reality. + +1. WallStreetBets does not care about you. You are nobody. Occasionally a person accomplishes enough to be recognizable, but it’s such a small fraction it’s negligible. You are completely and utterly alone in this game. The times that this subreddit has served as a haven for confirmation bias in times of uncertainty are the times that the most people have walked away with horrible losses. + +2. Nobody is a prophet. Nobody here is powerful enough to make plays with 100% certainty. The majority of prophets and astrologists here have ended up major losers and hated by the community. + +3. Only putting in what you can afford to lose is a fairy tale, the only ‘unrealized losses’ are the losses you haven’t realized you’re not getting back yet, and there’s no such thing as only playing with house money. Any “unrealized” gains are YOUR dollars, not the house’s anymore. And you could spend years convincing yourself you could afford to lose what you lost. That’s if you don’t pick up an addiction on the way and lose more. + +Welcome to the casino. Oh and in a week, it’s back to date and strike. For now- + +Good luck. 24@353 🚀 holding +I see a lot of posters on here, social media, friends and family, saying the same stuff (especially new "investors"). "This market is bs!". + +Many people are pissed, because according to them, the market is reacting correctly. + +These people think because when there's a global pandemic, the market has to plummet, and you just buy everything at a discount and get rich, right? Shocker... 99% of investors are thinking the same thing. + +All I can say is, when there is a true bottom and fear, buying won't be easy at all (unless you and your family are already rich with job security and healthy). Once most people burn through their savings; have to make decisions like which bill to pay first, should I keep on investing and take on debt, or pay my debts first?.... Once those kind of scary decisions arise and most people lose their faith in the market is when we will be in true bottom territory. + +Just a little rant because people think it's as easy as just being an opportunist. It's not. Because once the opportunity finally comes, you probably won't have the resources to make the moves. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 1: + +Looks like I offended a lot of people, which was not my intention. I am not trying to predict the bottom at all. I know I don't know. + +All I was saying was is, when this "bottom" happens, it will be at a point where most people are scared. Whether it be because they are in debt or because they have lost faith in the market. It's not going to be as easy "this is cheap, buy now, I will get returns a few years from now". There's a lot of new investors thinking it's that easy. + +Risks aren't easy. Those 10% drops we saw several weeks ago was child's play. You'll know what I mean if/when it happens. When you are legit scared to put money in because you lost faith in the market and economy. + +I'm an Average Joe. I'm continuing do DCAing and buying at my usual rate. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 2: + +I guess I offended people with this as well: + +"unless you and your family are already rich with job security and healthy" + +That definitely came out wrong. I didn't mean that to rich shame. + +I still believe in America. And there will still be opportunities. But once again, I think the idea of just buying at this bottom is easier said than done, especially for people who aren't already wealthy or financially stable. And for those that do have the ballz to buy big in a fearful market, I think 9 out of 10 (and that's being VERY generous), will get burnt trying to make it during these hard times. But that's another topic. + +Good luck to everybody. Invest smart. +Relevant details: + +I’m a 4th year biglaw associate at top firm in Texas. Market comp for a 4th year is $320k total ($255k base + $65k bonus). Student loan debt will be paid off by the end of the calendar year. My undergraduate degree is from a Texas private school that’s respected in the state but probably doesn’t carry much weight elsewhere (think Baylor, SMU, TCU). My law degree is from a top 25 law school outside of Texas (think USC, Vandy, Notre Dame, Emory). + +Making partner at my firm is a longshot. A realistic best-case scenario after the 8-year associate track is to stick around as counsel making around $400-450k/year. Alternately, I could probably make partner at a smaller or less prestigious firm. Income there would vary widely, with a range of probably $300k to $1 million+. + +My ultimate goal is to fatFIRE in Texas in about 15 years. Is it worth getting an MBA at some point in the next year or two if my only goal is to maximize income and NW? The part time programs in Texas aren’t the best (I envy those in SF, Chicago, and NY with access to top programs), so I most likely would only consider full-time programs. I don’t love the idea of giving up $750k in income over two years and spending $200k+ on another degree, especially if I were to just end up as an IB associate making less than I do now post-MBA. However, I’m attracted to the idea of improving my credentials and gaining access to a new network. I’d be most interested in pivoting to PE, which is directly related to my legal practice. + +Would any full-time MBA be worth it in my situation? If so, which? HBS/GSB only? Wharton, Booth, Sloan? + +Thanks in advance. + + +EDIT: Thanks everyone for the great responses. I wasn’t expecting near this level of engagement. This is great. I may reach out to a few of you via direct message at some point. +Hi all! Long post ahead but I hope it can be useful. I’m new to this community, but I am a 29 year old quickly approaching a large liquidity event and am walking away with $3M+ in cash and another $1M in pref and common stock. In total have a NW just north of $5M. + +Thanks to a handful of friends who are far richer than I am, I’ve been introduced to what some would argue are the cream of the crop tax strategists and CPAs. Over the last few months, I’ve talked to about half a dozen of these guys about various tax strategies to defer or completely remove some of the capital gains tax obligations. A handful of themes have come up on multiple occasions and in browsing this subreddit I didn’t see anyone talking about them. + +I see a lot of people mentioning DAFs (donor advise funds, for those unfamiliar) but haven’t seen anyone talk about CRUTs (charitable remainder unitrusts), CRATs (“ “ annuity trust), or PIFs (pooled income funds). I won’t go into the nuances of each of them here (happy to in another post if people are curious - I’m kind of an idiot so I like things explained like I’m 5), but essentially my understanding is that they function very similarly to a DAF with the KEY difference that rather than donating the money today, you irrevocably donate shares today, which can in turn be invested, and these trusts pay you annual gains (or annuities if you use a CRAT) and the actual donation is triggered upon your death (or the death of a listed beneficiary - yay kid(s)). + +The irrevocable donation of shares is tax exempt (and provides an additional charitable contribution write off) so if you were to invest $1M into one of these (again they’re all slightly different), they could in turn invest that in an ETF, and you would receive monthly or quarterly payouts of the earnings (say 6% that’s $60K/year) for the rest of your life (as long as AUM in the fund are earning interest). + +I can go REALLY deep into some of the strategies here (like investing into tax favored mutual funds to generate almost tax free income for life) but again I’ll save that for another post if anyone cares. + +Here’s my question, has anyone used a PIF or CRUT? If yes, thoughts? Was it worth it? Even with the associated trustee fees? + +If not, why isn’t anyone doing it?! Do I need to be the guinea pig here??? Again, these are big time CPAs and they’re basically only willing to even talk to me because a few friends of mine made them rich. IRS code has it laid out pretty clearly. Why isn’t anyone using it? Or are you but none of you wants a paper trail just in case the IRS knows your username? Or have people tried and failed and is it just a terrible strategy? + +Thanks everyone! +Just making a post about Mission Ready Solutions and their upcoming catalysts. Definitely think this company has incredible potential to be a 10x bagger or more with everything they have going on and all the potential revenue streams out there. + +To start, the company has market cap of $74.40M (CAD $) from todays closing price of .3750 on the Canadian side of the market (MRS.V). On the American side of the market todays closing price was .2994 (MSNVF). + +Lets compare the market cap of the company to their revenues. (stats from yahoo finance) + +Market cap of $74.40M +Revenue 2019 = $21.193M +Revenue 2020 = $105.070M +Revenue 2021 = $127. 368M + +Market cap is lower than their total revenues for the year of 2021. Also, the company is making money, they aren’t losing money as of today. Buck the new CEO should continue to improve their total profit with his background and experience in finance. The company also has a bunch of big name partners in the industry with them to provide the government with whatever they need in their industry. To name a few, Stringking, Wildcat, Merrow and Olimax. Company also has a great board of directors that includes former NYPD commissioner William Bratton. Surely people like him have good connections and know important people! + +In December, they were awarded a contract with a ceiling of up to $200M for tents. + +https://mrscorp.com/mission-ready-awarded-us-dla-contract-valued-at-up-to-200-million/ + +They proved that they can get those big contracts and it wasn’t just a one time thing with the isolations gowns contract they won in 2020. + +https://mrscorp.com/mission-ready-awarded-new-contracts-for-an-estimated-127-million-with-a-ceiling-of-435-million/ + +Upcoming catalysts and potential catalysts +- Potential to be added back to the SOE $33B dollar contract. 2 of the 6 companies that won a spot on this have been bought out so there are 2 open slots if they decide to add 2 more companies to replace them. https://www.govconwire.com/2021/01/six-companies-win-spots-on-potential-33b-dla-logistics-support-idiq/ +- GSA VA $14B schedule. Was mentioned during the company’s shareholder meeting in December. The company completed their application for this schedule. https://youtu.be/chVAAdN_8H4 +- Isolation gowns contract that should be worth about $1.5B https://sam.gov/opp/2cd7ceab441341d7937619891e8bd2aa/view +- Ballistic combat shirts (BCS) contract, the company owns a patent to these shirts and is in a prime position to get a good chunk of this contract. This solicitation closes at the end of January. https://sam.gov/opp/cd0363ae322240f48294385d3fea8fc7/view +- Launch of their online e-commerce store in early 2022 that was also mentioned during their shareholder meeting in December. +- A bunch of bids on contracts that the company has already bid on, mentioned in the shareholder meeting, a lot of them are in different stages of a long process to be awarded. The company has not lost out on any of these bids. + +We are talking about a company with a market cap that is less than $100M that is bidding on these massive contracts that can bring incredible revenue for the company. At this price and with everything that is coming in the near future, I think this is a low risk investment that can make a lot of people lots of money. +Started on graduate scheme at 35K in 2017. Moved to a different company in 2018 at 45K. Planning to move again in a quarter or so. This would put me at calendar year of 2 years of experience. What should an engineer at an average fintech ask? I am not targeting big boys like hedge funds or googles. I personally feel still somewhat junior and next job could take me to mid-level in a year. What's a good junior worth in the market? I am thinking of asking for 55-60K in the next job. Target companies: fintech. Not banks. Small ones. +I was a cleaner before the pandemic but I need to leave the town I live in now as I’m leaving my husband. (My husband has no money either before you ask so I can’t take any). I cannot find any jobs that Im qualified for as I have no experience doing anything else nor the education, however am willing to do most kinds of work once there are jobs again. + +I have no savings and no family or friends to live with so I’ll need to find an apartment. Is there anything I can do to get a job or get government aid until I can get a job after the pandemic? + +I’ve never lived alone or dealt with any of this before. Any help or advice is so needed. +&#x200B; + +There’s this incident that’s seared in my childhood memory. + +In India, during festivals, family, friends, and neighbours gather together to play a popular card game called “Teen Patti” (Also known as Tri-Cards, Flush or Flash.) This is with money of course. And when you have about two dozen people playing, it’s interesting and fun to watch. + +In this game, three cards are distributed one at a time, to all players who have contributed to the pot. The rules of the game are well established. Those who have cards with low probability of winning (no sequence, low pairs etc.) fold first. Then the remaining players bet and bid higher for the winning pot. This goes on till either someone folds or pays the money for the opponent to reveal. + +So during this game, after a few rounds of bidding, the smaller players had all folded one by one. Only two contenders remained in the fray. The bids were getting higher and higher – till the two players were out of cash for increasing the bidding. So what do they do? Yes, leverage! After all, there are family, friends and neighbours around. So they borrowed money to keep the game going. + +So high was the conviction of these two players, that neither was ready to fold. Basically, it was madness. Both players thought that they could win. So this had to end somewhere right? With one player refusing to budge, the other player on urging from others, finally asked for the reveal. + +The player was holding 3 Kings. The probability of holding 3 Kings in a deck of cards is also the 99.9819% probability of winning. Almost a no lose situation. But what trumps that? A player holding 3 Aces, which is a 100% winning hand. + +So this is how the game ended. One player, confident of winning with the second highest hand of cards with a 99.9819% probability of winning, ended up losing not only his own money, but also that was borrowed (leveraged) from family and friends. + +The ongoing GME Saga reminded me of this incident. Citadel being a billion dollar hedge fund, market maker, dark pool operator, operating on the borders of legality with other multi billion dollar shady hedge funds, FTDs etc. had a money tap flowing. With these resources and tools. they could win, out bidding the opponent, no matter who or what was against them. Barring a once in a life time event they were confident that with so many cards stacked in their favour, gave them a win probability of 99.9819% - just alike holding a winning hand of 3 Kings. + +That is till it didn’t. The game is ongoing. Citadel has thrown everything (including bedpost) into the pot. But the opponent is a retarded Ape. He knows that he has a one in a life time opportunity - holding on to 3 Aces. And he is not quitting, come what may. All that he has to do is hold. (And DRS.) + +After all, against Citadel’s 99.9819% winning chances, the retarded Ape holds 3 Aces - a 100% winning certainty. +I'm currently at the stage where I've hit the maximum contribution for an IRA ($6,000 into VTSAX for 2019) and am contributing 4% to my 401K to achieve my employer match of 4%. + +However, I'm now at a crossroads of trying to determine if I should open a taxable brokerage versus increasing my 401K contributions. The standard thought would be to increase my 401K contributions for the tax-advantages. The issue is that our 401K provider (Paychex) does not have many good options. I've analyzed all the funds and have chosen to put 100% of my 401K contributions into [FAEGX (Fidelity Advisor Equity Growth Fund).](https://imgur.com/a/tBP4kue) This has a pretty high expense ratio of 1.25%, but is still the best option available to me. + +Would anyone able to advise on how I can determine if increasing my 401K contributions would be more beneficial than opening a taxable brokerage and putting more money into VTSAX? Thank you in advance for any advice! +I know that there is no "ULTIMATE RULE" in investing that always works, and always makes profit... :-) + +There can be wildly different rules and methods depending on: + +► region (Europe / North America / Asia / BRIC countries / etc.) + +► trading tool (tools for private investors / bank systems / systems for hedge fund managers / etc.) + +► asset types (stock / option / fund / warrant / etc.) + +► bull or bear markets + +► amount of money to invest (1000 USD - several billion USD) + +However every investor should have some general rules that he usually applies depending on his usual region / asset / tool / amount of money. + +Share YOUR method!!! :-D +Please try to answer like: "I generally invest by researching XXX asset types using YYY asset screener, then I buy it with ZZZ tool, set QQQ stop-loss order and/or RRR limit orders...", and so on. + +Also, feel free to comment or correct any method shared below, if you have some good ideas about them. Thanks. + +*EDIT: spelling, clarification +In 2008 the subprime lending game (and greed) caused the recession. This time around it seems like geo-political issues will be to blame. Isn't this all very much preventable? + +edit: Maybe I'm just older and wiser, but it's like I see this unfolding in slow-mo right before my eyes. +This video: + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QlpTlz073k](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QlpTlz073k) + +was just posted Sunday morning UK time. It contains detailed analysis of companies and industries affected by sanctions on Russian banks. + +Remember before you buy or sell anything: all the world's expert traders and firms already know all this information and prices reflect this information. I'm not saying markets are efficient (fucking joke) or that experts are always right (2008 anyone). But before you make a play on any of this (e.g., puts on BP for their exposure to Rosneft), think about which of all these plays are likeliest to have been overlooked, misunderstood, or mistimed. +Remember guys, this is coordinated as fuck. This sub has been talking about this for a while now, when you start seeing the media hyping the squeeze, don’t fucking fall for it yet. We haven’t even begun to lift off yet. Squeeze hasn’t started until $10k, nothing has changed, remember the gospel: Buy if you can, HOLD, and VOTE. That’s it + +We are marching through the FUD, keep your heads on straight, stay focused, and for fucks sake ignore the news. See you primates in zero grav 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit: I forgot, this isn’t financial advice and all that dumb shit + +Edit: Thanks for the awards!! This sub is the shit ❤️ + +Edit: it’s crazy watching how much this gets downvoted. I think hedgies could have covered already with all the money they’re dumping into shills and bots +**In the media, you see a lot of articles saying how "A 30 year kid owns 2 properties".** + +"A 40 year old owns an impressive 10 properties". + +[Millionaire Sydney developer first homebuyer real estate advice | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site](https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/millionaire-developer-advises-first-homebuyers-to-adopt-a-positive-attitude-to-break-into-the-market/news-story/ea78b452c9c344d8425bfb1326c9c6a7?utm_campaign=EditorialSB&utm_source=news.com.au&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_content=SocialBakers) + +[Sydney nurse amassed $2.6m property portfolio across four states | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site](https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/sydney-nurse-amassed-26m-property-portfolio-across-four-states/news-story/f3ed2f6c858ccc77ca94ffad6e195af9) + +**For example...** + +https://preview.redd.it/cigi3uqtm9w81.png?width=1404&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdd3952312f7a506e73787d6d8ac4573c228da9c + +........... + +*I've worked at Macdonalds before and tried to do what they did, no bank would lend to me as they all said "My income is too low".* + +**How do they do it? My friend is a nurse and he couldn’t even get a loan for more 500K.....** +This is a long post - hope you have the patience to read through it! + +I had a duplex rental for 1.5 years and chose to sell it. I would like you guys to see my logic as to why I chose to have dividend earning stocks vs rental income. Please find any loopholes you can, or take it as a learning opportunity. Please note, the tax rules I am using are for Canada so I'm sure it will not apply everywhere. + +Paid 340k for a duplex. Rent was 1150 for a two bedroom and 1250 for a three bedroom. Plus utilities for both apartments. Had probably the best tenants I could ask for but I've learnt something. Regardless of they are good or not, renters are renters. They expected everything to be fixed immediately. (Example: lock didn't want to turned at 2am which apparently had been an on going issue for 2 months yet they never told me, I wanted to lubricate and let it sit in the morning, they demanded I call a lock smith immediately. Me not calling one caused them to despise me a little). Things would get me worked up easily after that but I had to keep a happy face with them. + +Expenses: approx 850 (interest portion of 1200 a month mortgage) + 310 (prop tax) + 110 (insurance). That works to 1270 and rent brought a total of 2400 before tax. That's 1130 per month profit! Seems ridiculously good doesn't it? Well maybe to an outsider. + +Now a few costs not mentioned here with buying a rental is: land transfer (mine was 3575), bank mortgage fee (700 - but this would be paid to borrow either way), lawyer (2000), house inspection (560). This does NOT include selling costs which would include lawyer + realtor fee (unless you sell private) and potential IRD bank penalty if you sell within a mortgage term (this one cost me 6k!). + +It was consuming me, I work between 50-60 hours a week at my job, make good money as it is, then on top of that had to worry about the rental - even when nothing was going wrong. + +I figured I'd compare it to dividend paying stocks (and ignoring any capital gain). The assumption would be no major repairs were made and my tenants did not ever leave with it being empty for one month and with the stocks side that the company did not cancel out a dividend payment. So I compared it to borrowing the same amount of money from the bank at the same rate and place it in dividend paying stocks. I designed a solid blue chip portfolio that paid approx 4% which would be approx 1133 per month (taxed at only 8% so long as I invest in Canadian companies vs rent which was 32%). The expense here would be interest of approx 850 per month only (which is claimed and returns approx 32% at income tax time). + +The only fees with dividend stocks would be the commission cost, which generally is 10 to buy, 10 to sell. To diversify I bought 22 companies so the purchase price was 220. Generally, to set up a HELOC there would be a 700 dollar fee just as a mortgage, but there was a promo so I didn't have to pay it. + +The tax breakdown: + +In Canada, dividend paid by a Canadian Corporation at my tax bracket is taxed at 8%, whereas income (rent) is taxed as 32%. + +Rental: +(income - expenses) * (100% - income tax rate) +(2400 - 1270) * (100% - 32%) = leaving me with 768.40 per month + +Dividend Stocks (yield 4%): +(dividend * (100% - div_tax_rate)) - (expenses * (100% - income tax rate)) +(1133 * (100% - 8%)) - (850 * (100% - 32%)) = 464.66 per month + +Difference +768.40 - 464.66 = 303.74 +193.54 * 12 months = 3644.88 (or 1% annually on 340k) + +I felt like the difference in "income" was worth it, considering my stocks don't call me (yet!). Both housing market and stock market can crash, so I ignored that fact for now, but kept it in the back of my mind. I also do believe that housing price does fluctuate just as much as stocks do, only you can't login to a website and see the price change second by second. This brings me to a benefit of stocks - liquidity. The shingles on my rental would have to be replaced in 2 years, which would be another upcoming cost (at least this one is planned!). + +I sold my rental for 390k making a profit - so I can't say I regret my decision. I ended up getting a 150k line of credit (HELOC) locked in for 4 years at the same rate of mortgage interest rates to buy stocks. I know I keep mentioning borrowing the same amount - but that was for simplicity of comparing. I felt like borrowing less at the start was a good way to do it, then perhaps borrow more at a later date. + +Hope you find my logic helpful, if not tell me why. Please note I am not a professional by any means, this is simply my opinion (and I hope no one points out issues in my math!) +Tesla bought 1.5 Billion in BTC and it completely floods the “new” page of this sub. Any decent post just drowns in the flood of karma whoring shitposts these days. It makes browsing “new” like sorting through a huge pile of garbage. + +I get that moons can be fun, but it ruined a huge part of this sub. +Ola ppl, + +as the title says, dont be lazy to backup those 2FA codes! (write em down on paper, or print the QR code, there are also other ways). + +If you lose your phone or it brakes without you having access to the backup codes/QR´s, you are in for a major pain to get em reseted everywhere you use 2FA. Yes, every site that you use 2FA must then manually verify you and turn it off. IT. IS. A. PAIN + +Tip: If you didnt back em up when enabling 2FA, log in to the respective account, turn the 2FA off (you will need you actual 2FA for this), than turn it back on and save the backup code/QR now. It takes a little time, but if SHTF, you will be glad you have done it. + +Cheers + +EDIT: as user /u/Milge pointed out, on some exchanges the disabling of 2FA triggers a TEMPORALY withdrawals freeze for security reasons. +Let’s go WAY OUT on a limb and suggest that shills, trolls, and bad actors MAY be targeting certain people on this sub with repetitive complaints of rule breaking. + +Mods have to resolve complaints or get problems from Reddit admins. + +Mods enforce rules. + +However, apes being targeted for breaking rules feel persecuted and treated unfairly because they see the same rules not being applied the same way elsewhere. This can pit Mods against otherwise reasonable apes, leading passionate individuals into a place of escalation. + +My Question: is it possible to add greater transparency to frequent complaints? Why is an individual being complained about so much? Is it because their behavior is so far out of the norm of average sub behavior OR are they being targeted for harassment or censure. + +We should have a mechanism to separate these two possibilities. + +Edit: grammar +Everybody says negative yield curve is bad but no one explains why the fuck that is. + +Banks borrow money from the Fed, central banks around the world and other entities in the short term market and lend it to people in the long-term market. Also, the interest rates of depositors is determined by short term bond yields while interest rates of borrowers is determined by long term yields. + +Basically the bank borrows money for 1% and lends it to you for 4% and makes money on the 3 percent difference. When the yield curve is zero or negative, banks can't make money by lending money, so they stop lending money. This means less money in the system and credit crunch. If people and businesses can't borrow, the economy can't grow. That's when you start sucking dick for money. + +This also depends on how long the curve remains negative. If it dips for one day and reverses the next day it might be ok but if it is persistently negative, time to start getting worried. + +If you can't get loans you can't buy cars, houses, mail order brides, roll your debt over...etc. That's how it causes recession. Fed can sometimes help by lowering short term rates if they are too high but it has little room to help if short term rates are already at low levels. +In Nov 2016, I bought a car. The car was $9,500, and I put $2,000 down and financed the rest. There were apparently some hiccups with the initial rate I was given, and the BMW dealership I bought it from wound up financing me through a different company than the one we had agreed upon. + +Well, I'm looking and I see the amount financed was over $12,000. But I got to looking today, and the loan term is 72 months, with payments at $238.18 a month. + +That means a $9,500 car is going to have cost me $19,148.96. + +What the fuck?!?!? + +What in the HELL am I missing in this equation? I'm going to find all of the paperwork from the dealership when I bought my car, but I cannot possibly wrap my head around how this could be accurate. It's a nice little fuel-efficient car, but I bought it used. + +Assuming this is all correct, and the dealership got me a worse loan than the one agreed upon when I signed the paperwork, do I need to contact a lawyer or something? Because this shit is clearly out of hand. + +EDIT: I appreciate all you guys' comments, and it is abundantly clear that I'm in this mess due to sheer ignorance on my part. I thought about deleting this post, but I figure I'll leave it up as an example that hopefully others can learn from, as much as I have. +Hi, I know this is a relatively new sub, but I feel like the content is turning into /r/Frugal. I know that saving money has to do with poverty, but I guess I'm looking for more actual financial related subject matter? + +For example, there's one about drinking more water and many talking about food. + +There are many other subs for that. + +/r/EatCheapAndHealthy +/r/budgetfood +/r/MealPrepSunday +Please use this thread to have discussions which you don't feel warrant a new post to the sub. While the Rules for posting questions on the basics of personal finance/investing topics are relaxed a little bit here, the rules against memes/spam/self-promotion/excessive rudeness/politics still apply! + +Have a look at the [FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq) for this subreddit before posting to see if your question is frequently asked. + +Since this post does tend to get busy, consider sorting the comments by "new" (instead of "best" or "top") to see the newest posts. + +Too many posts in here remind me of this story: + + One day a ragged man was creeping along from house to house. He carried an old wallet in his hand and was asking at every door for a few cents to buy something to eat. As he was grumbling at his misfortune, he kept wondering why it was that folks who had so much money were never satisfied and were always wanting more. + +“Here,” said he, “is the master of this house—I know him well. He is a good business man, and he made himself wondrously rich a long time ago. Had he been wise, he would have stopped then. He would have turned over his business to someone else, and then he could have spent the rest of his life in ease. What did he do instead? He built ships and sent them to sea to trade with foreign lands. He thought he would get mountains of gold.” “However, there were great storms on the water; his ships were wrecked, and his riches were swallowed up by the waves. Now all his hopes lie at the bottom of the sea, and his great wealth has vanished.” “There are many such cases. Men seem to never be satisfied unless they gain the whole world.” “As for me, if I had only enough to eat and to buy clothing, I would not want anything more.” + +Just at that moment, Fortune came down the street. She saw the poor man and stopped. She said to him: “Listen! I have long wished to help you. Hold your wallet, and I will pour this gold into it, but only on this condition: all that falls into the wallet shall be pure gold, but every piece that falls upon the ground shall become dust. Do you understand?” “Oh, yes, I understand,” said the poor man. “Then be careful,” said Fortune. “Your wallet is old, so do not load it too heavily.” + +The beggar was so glad that he could hardly wait. He quickly opened his wallet, and a stream of yellow dollars poured into it. The wallet grew heavy. “Is that enough?” asked Fortune. “Not yet.” “Isn't it cracking?” “Never fear.” The beggar's hands began to tremble. Ah, if the gold would only pour forever! “You are the richest man in the world now!” “Just a little more, add just a handful or two.” “There, it's full. The wallet will burst.” “But it will hold just a little more!” Another piece was added, and the wallet split. The treasure fell upon the ground and turned to dust. The beggar had nothing now but his empty wallet, and it was torn from top to bottom. He was as poor as before. + +If you lucked into something at .0001 and it's now .45, stop posting stupid rocket emojis and talking about how it's going to be $10 in 5 years and strongly consider cashing out. Greed is making you do dumb things. +https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/02/19525644/should-amazon-or-netflix-try-to-acquire-amc-in-2021 + +If this isn’t allowed, please delete. Would it be a good idea to invest before this happens(if it does)? Or would AMC stock forfeit? I’m new to this and can’t find answers. Someone please educate me! +As foster parents, the kids placed with us auto-qualify for WIC. On our previous placement, we opted never to bother with it; we both work, and it seemed like a lot of hassle, and we made enough to keep up with two kids. + +This go round, after the sticker-shock of pricing daycare for 3, we decided it was worth the effort to try out WIC. It definitely took some effort to get all the documentation we needed together, but then they did our initial consult over the phone (thanks COVID!) and told me I could pick up checks that afternoon. + +Last night I went to the grocery store to use the August checks, and I was blown away by the amount of food I got. I decided not to get a few things (eggs, and a bit of the milk) because we already had enough that we might not use it up in time, and I still came away with $105 in groceries for the three kiddos. Honestly, with the amount that they eat at daycare, this won't completely cover groceries for them, but it will come very, very close. + +The only part that was hard is the checkout is tedious (each check has to be processed separately, so I had to do 9 different transactions since each kid got 3 checks), but I suspect this would be easier for a family that is considered a single household by WIC (legally each kid in care is considered a household with a $0 income). As it was, I was nearly in tears by the end, because I went at 10 pm, and there was a line forming behind me (only one register open), and some of the people were quite obviously whispering and pointing and staring (our grocery store is in a more affluent part of town, and some people judge people on programs like this pretty hard), but when I got to the car and loaded up all my groceries, all I could think about was how much of a help this was going to be in keeping the kids happy and fed. + +If you're eligible for WIC, do it. It's a hassle, and having to publicly and obviously use it in front of other people sucks, but my fridge is full, and I'm so excited to have all this beautiful, fresh food for the kiddos. +I will take a recent example by saying Cardano has become the new Ripple in term of price expectation. + +Hear me out before downvoting for comparing Cardano and Ripple (I can already feel the pitchfork). + +Lately there has been a lot of new investors. They are like us when we arrived in this new promised land, feeling like we are the Christopher Colombus of crypto currencies. + +So, it's up to us to help them showing the path (there are already a ton of posts here about that, thank you again for your work). + +That being said, I see a lot of comments from these new people hoping Cardano will reach Bitcoin price and explode, targeting a +$1000. + +&#x200B; + +* **Some maths (sorry)** + +To you, fellow dreamer, you have to understand it won't happen. You have to learn the meaning of market cap. + +Actually, Bitcoin has a market cap of $1.09T. Cardano is at $46.14B, for a price of $1.44 each. + +To reach the BTC market cap, you will need to do x23,62, which would put ADA to $34. Which is still pretty huge, but far from $1k each. + +To achieve this price target, ADA need a market cap of $32T, which is almost 3 times the market capitalization of gold. + +&#x200B; + +* **History repeating itself (kinda)** + +In 2017, newcomers had the same expectation about Ripple, not understanding how marketcap was working, putting a ton of money (some people took loans and gambled on this) dreaming about unreachable price. + +I just hope this post will clarify what you can / should expect about the pricing limit of one crypto currency,based on its market capitalization. + +&#x200B; + +PS: Sorry for the repost, bot deleted my post because there were already 2 posts "about ADA in the top 50", like wth +A signed version of this message can be found here +https://pastebin.com/Lp5Djs5R + +Hello. I am the BearWhale. After a series of bad experiences with +the banking system, I invested most of my life savings into bitcoin +when the price was fairly low, around $8. For years I was a HODLer. +I was holding when Trendon Shavers ripped everyone off. I was holding +when the price was over a thousand, and I held after MtGox imploded. +I believe strongly in Bitcoin’s decentralized promise of displacing +immoral national currencies. + +The price kept drifting downwards until finally at a little over $300 +I had enough. I sold off everything, based on an accumulation of +information I gathered mostly from social media such as bitcointalk.org +and reddit: + +* The block size limit of 1MB was a threat to bitcoin’s future +* “Satoshi’s vision” was unlimited block sizes +* Gavin was ousted by a cabal of self-interested engineers, a.k.a. “Blockstream” +* Blockstream took control of bitcoin’s source code repository +* Theymos colluded with Blockstream to censor block size increase discussions +* The subreddit r/bitcoin heavily censored block size increase discussions +* Blockstream wanted the block size low to promote its proprietary Lightning Network +* Gregory Maxwell was a bad actor and Luke-Jr was a religious nut +* The market agreed with the above, leading to the then-decline in price towards $300 + +At this point I should state that I am a highly technical person. +I understand all of the math behind the bitcoin whitepaper and the +software that powers it. Although, I am not a security expert nor +am I a cypherpunk - only a little experience in the type of adversarial +thinking necessary to be a competent steward of the technology. I don’t +regret selling, as I made an enormous profit. The decision was a rational +one based on available information. However, in 2017 I went all-in on +bitcoin again and here’s why: + +None of the supposed facts which motivated my decision to sell were +correct. **It was all a carefully crafted and funded disinformation +campaign launched by Roger Ver and his cronies, perhaps Jihan Wu, to +discourage improvements to the bitcoin protocol to achieve financial +gain at the expense of the community.** + +Once I recognized the moves to discredit the core developers for what it +was, a covertly operated smear campaign fought on social media, funded by +enormous enrichment from bitcoin, carried out with sock puppets and appeals +to emotion, I looked at bitcoin and the greater community again with a more +critical eye and I came to the following conclusions: + +* Bitcoin is working great: look at the fees people are willing to pay +* Resistance to poorly thought out protocol changes is a feature not a bug +* Core developers are highly competent, from reading the mailing list +* SegWit is incredibly well engineered to create the least network disruption +* The subreddit r/btc is filled with negativity and meaningless attack +* Roger Ver is a con man who uses his bitcoin.com domain to push his agenda +* Bitcoin mining is centralized due to Bitmain’s temporary monopoly on retail hardware +* ASICBoost is an exploit which has broken some economic incentives of bitcoin +* Absent Bitmain, bitcoin the currency is far superior to altcoins + +Although I am of course an adult fully responsible for my decisions, +I want to make it clear that Roger Ver’s agenda was successful at +convincing me that bitcoin had a “governance crisis” and was at risk +of being overtaken by altcoins. + +My reason for this open letter s simple: I want the community to know +that I fully support the core developers. I am strongly in favor of UASF +as a mechanism for liminating the centralizing effect of miner control +illusions. I support SegWit as a sensible technology for moving Bitcoin +forward. I reject a block-size increase hard fork at the present time. +I reject a phony “compromise.” And I especially resent and reject a +consortium of suits coming to an “agreement” on what source-code base +will be named “bitcoin” without that code base being thoroughly vetted +over a suitable long time-frame by industry professionals. Those industry +professionals include Gregory Maxwell and most of the people who +participate regularly on the bitcoin developers mailing list and contribute +pull requests to the bitcoin-core repository. + +tl;dr; I am the BearWhale: I sold Bitcoin for the wrong reasons, +and now I am all-in and long bitcoin again. + +Pre-tax, I make $41k a year, not including my monthly bonuses. I've also started some freelance work, which although quite sporadic, has made me a gross of about $1250 a month. But with it being unreliable, I think it's better to go off just my salary. + +This would put 30% of my gross income at just $1,025. There are VERY few rentals around here lower than that which I'd be comfortable with, and I'd greatly prefer to not have to have a roommate. + +Would it be okay to go slightly above? Maybe find something between $1000-$1200 a month? + +FWIW, I have no student loans anymore and have zero debt. +I am feeling like a complete failure. After I left my ex due to domestic violence, I moved back in with my mom. Who then left her husband due to domestic violence as well. We’ve been renting a place together ever since. Well, during this pandemic my mom turned to drugs, went to rehab and now is back with her ex and I have to get out of the house by the end of this month. I can’t live with that man again. He’s caused so much pain throughout my childhood and put me at risk to losing my daughter. I work as much as I can without ever usually having a babysitter. I only make $2,000 a month. I have no credit. It’s impossible to find somewhere affordable/safe to rent. I’m upset. I’m frustrated. I have nowhere to turn to. No friends or family that can take me in. I’m so stressed my head feels like it’s going to explode. I just needed to get this off my chest and scream into the void! +My request: If you really want to downvote a post, please provide some information why. Content creators are getting heavily discouraged about no-reason downvote waves and it hurts everyone. If you provide feedback or critics, then you help the content provider to improve. + +I am really starting to get angry about the current sentiment of this sub. EVERYTHING is downvoted instantly as soon as it's posted or commented. I go through the posts by new and 80% of the comments are sitting with 0 or -1 because of the downvoting bots or users, I can't decide. + +You see posts with 15-25-30 comments and 1-2 upvotes only and every time I refresh on them, they go back to 1 or 0, constantly downvoted regardless of the content. + +I upvoted everything so far which wasn't harassment or negative attitude towards the others, because I wanted to counter these "attacks", but it looks like a lost battle. If it's not a controversial post about moons or a sob story (I like some of them too to be honest) then it won't reach front page. + +Posts about tech or news barely reach anything. Please if you like a post support it, not just comment, because it won't get any exposure and won't reach more users. +To give a face to this topic. Lets use Cathie Wood she was in the news and popular in 2020-2021. She invested in stocks like ZM, TDOC, BEAM, SQ, SHOP, DKNG, PLTR, PATH, NVTA, COIN, TWLO, ROKU, U, TXG, FATE all near or close to the top. A lot of those stocks are now down 50-90%. + +I imagine others on this forum may be in similar situations with certain stocks. How do you get over the possibility it could be years to recover from these losses and some of those companies may even go bankrupt and you lose it all. +The end of the year draws nearer, and some of you has started to submit your review of 2016 and your goals for 2017. Please fell free to do so here, and discuss your past year and expectations for the year to come. + +Thank you to [/u/Berning_Sensation](https://www.reddit.com/user/Berning_sensation) for the suggestion. +~840 million last 24 hr + +~500 million last 1 hour + + > https://www.bybt.com/LiquidationData + +one long alone got liquidated for 130 million ETH + + > https://twitter.com/hsakatrades/status/1453277837897699335?s=21 + +then masses stop-losses go off and it’s in free fall + +and likely bigger triggering limit buys (plus dip buyers) and we got the 1 hour crash and bump + +still pretty crazy that so much liquidated but primarily in BTC and ETH but they likely held a lot of alts too and all hit the market at once in the middle of the night with mostly just — with kor traders busy with 1inch lol — limit buys to pick up the slack + +edit: worth emphasizing for clarity it was bulls not bears — leveraged longs. i also comment a eli5 below +Hello people, + +I'm new to investment and just setup a Scalable Capital (broker) account to start buying ETFs. +My plan is essentially to invest around 400-500€ Monthly so far. + +I see that we can open a "Sparplan" (Savings Plan) on Scalable Capital. I don't understand how this differs with the "out of the box" account? + +Thanks +Hello guys and girls! + +I have a particular question regarding taxes. Right now I am living in Portugal and I am a FCT fellowship holder. When I arrived to the country I got my NIF to open a bank account, I asked if I should pay taxes and the people from my institute told that I should not do it since my income comes from a fellowship. + +Some days ago I opened an eToro account for investment, so I guess now I should pay taxes for the profit. I contacted the DSRI - DCI - Divisão de Cooperação Internacional, but they only sent me to the portal de finanças and I couldn’t find any useful information for my case. + +So now I am asking you if: +1) Has anyone been in the same situation?, what did you do? +2) has anyone payed taxes for the profit from eToro in Portugal?, could you help me to do it? +I’m a US citizen considering an investment visa as a path to EU citizenship. I am interested in moving to the EU once I’m a citizen, while maintaining my US citizenship. + +I’m financially independent/retired at 35. The majority of my money is invested in the stock market in index funds (Vanguard etc). My financial advisor sells a small portion of my holdings every year for me to live off of, and I pay US long-term capital gains tax, plus state income tax, on those sales (and I think I must continue to do so, as a US citizen, even if I become tax resident in another country; though I haven’t consulted a tax professional about this yet). + +(1) What countries should I be thinking about in the EU, where the taxation regime won’t impose an enormous burden, were I to become a tax resident of that country? E.g. it sounds like some countries impose quite a large “wealth tax.” What are the countries to consider/avoid from this perspective? + +(2) It appears to me, based on admittedly preliminary research, that the treaties/rules that were put into place to prevent double taxation apply more to earned income (like wages), as opposed to passive income like mine. Does that sound correct? Any EU countries where this is not the case? + +(3) Do any countries have special tax structures/programs I could benefit from? For example, the Portuguese non-habitual resident tax program looks like it enables people to live in Portugal for up to 10 years without paying taxes on certain types of foreign income. (Though it looks like capital gains sales are still taxed.) Do other EU countries have something similar? + +I will of course retain in-country tax professionals before making any decisions. However, I don’t think they’ll be good at giving me a comparative/bird’s eye view, which is why I’m asking here as an initial step. + +(Throwaway account for discussing private financial affairs) +Hello! I come to you for help regarding my savings strategy, which I think it's good but could use some improvements. + +My situation is the following: 24yo, living in Sweden. I can save around 12.000 SEK (So around 1.200€/) every month (could be pushed even a bit more by reducing expenses like eating out or buying stuff) + +Right now I have 90.000 SEK in a savings account at 0,7% interest rate, and 30.000 SEK on an ISK account (an investment account) on two different funds, one focused on tech and telecommunications and the other one on IT companies. + +My end goal would be to have a comfortable amount of savings )for the future) and to buy a house in 2 years. + +Given that the [inflation in Sweden last year was a 1,8%](https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/prices-and-consumption/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-cpi/pong/tables-and-graphs/consumer-price-index-cpi/cpi-annual-changes-inflation-rate/), the savings account is not even making up for it. The investments were doing well before the pandemic, but while the prices were low earlier this month I bought more stocks so I'm kinda in a neutral position. + +I've checked other savings options and I've found savings accounts that can give up to 1% without binding time, and other around 1,5% / 2% with binding time (but not allowing further deposits except for the initial one). + +How would you advise me to diversify my savings in this case? +Hello people of reddit. + +I'm asking myself if I should invest 1000€ divided in 5 bluechip stocks 200€ to each monthly: +- Tesla, +- Amd, +- Nvidia, +- Microsoft, +- Apple + +Or should I invest 1000€ in some index and what index would be the best suited for me. + +I'm from Slovenia. + +Any kind of answer is highly appreciated. +I'm moving back to Malta again and there's no way on earth I'm opening a bank account there *sata bank cough* so now I'm trying to choose a virtual bank where my salary will end up on and use as a daily bank. + +Revolut is very popular but seems to have issues with locking people's accounts on ridiculous grounds. + + Monese is also recommended but seems very basic compared to revolut and their upgraded accounts costs more. + +What else is there out there that you can trust as your main bank account? My bank account from the country I live in is a no go. +Morning fellas, + +I live in PT (23y) and I can spare 100€ every month since I'm saving the rest for a new home, which doesn't impact the investments. started recently with 1k€ on DEGIRO and bought a bunch of ETFs based on their performance and popularity. Since this is just the beginning and this might look a big mess, here we go + +* **What do I have rn?** + +1. (50%) **IWDA**.AMS - My main focus from now on. +2. (13%) **EMQQ**.XET - BCZ Better results than EMIM and IEMA, despite the high p.a ratio (0.86) +3. (27%) **NQSE**.XET (NASDAQ) - 44% of return last y +4. (10%) **IQQH**.XET, because I believe in leaves 🍃 + +&#x200B; + +* **What do I want?** 80% Developed Markets + 10% Emerging + IQQH + +I'm looking into making some changes here but keeping the reno energies because I think they will prevail in a near future. + +&#x200B; + +* **Resume and conclusion :)** + +I could drop IWDA since Nasdaq usually performs much better but it's risky going all in. I would like to have big returns, follow the market and do some changes if needed. + +Should I keep both NQSE and IWDA or drop one of them? In this case, which one and why? + +What else? Thank you :) +Hello people of reddit. + +I'm asking myself if I should invest 1000€ divided in 5 bluechip stocks 200€ to each monthly: +- Tesla, +- Amd, +- Nvidia, +- Microsoft, +- Apple + +Or should I invest 1000€ in some index and what index would be the best suited for me. + +I'm from Slovenia. + +Any kind of answer is highly appreciated. +Hello everyone, + +I'm reviewing my finances and trying to understand how to better allocate them. I have an ETF portfolio and some cash. Pretty simple stuff, but lately I have been lazy and I think I have to improve it. + +My current situation is: + +## Personal + +31 yo expat living in the Netherlands, working in tech. I can save quite aggressively because I'm renting a small place with a friend and I work remotely. + +## Asset allocation + +* Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (ISIN IE00B3XXRP09): 32 shares +* iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) EU (ISIN IE00BDBRDM35): 5 shares + +So roughly a 80/20 allocation between stocks (us) and bonds. + +Total invested: around 2500 € + +Broker: DeGiro + +**Question**: is this correctly described? Am I using the right words? I'm happy to know what's wrong for the future 😊) + +Total in cash (excluded emergency fund): around 30k € + +I'll add IWDA and VWCE to be sure I've fully covered all markets. This is for long term investment so I will try to always add more shares as much as possible. + +**Question**: how should I go with asset allocation if I add those ETFs moving forward? Which ratios should I consider? + +Because of some work I did, I also own some cryptos, but I'm not very active on that side. + +## Goals moving forward + +* Grow (as in money invested) at least 5x (very ambitious would be 10x) by the end of the year +* Learn more about investing and stocks +* Thinking about starting a business or being more independent +* Potentially buying a house (I know NL is in a bubble 😏 I'm not sure about this one because I might move or not being in the same place for a long period of time) One thing that is making me consider this is that the quality of life here and how welcomed I feel is way beyond what I'm used to, so having a base here would be convenient (especially for my mental health and wellbeing. + +## Future scenarios + +Part of my family will probably lose their income due to Covid and other circumstances. I don't know if this will directly impact my finances, and honestly it's not important since is my family and I will do anything to be there for help. They own their own place, so that is fixed. + +My question is: has anyone ever planned for something like this? I was thinking about teaching them my skills and potentially landing some entry level jobs or pursuing opportunities online (very time consuming and very steep), but any other idea or advice will be very much appreciated. +Hello, newbie question incoming, + +If I want to sell the shares of an ETF I am holding long term in the future (a few years from now), does the number of open positions I am holding, and their volume make a difference? + +**Example:** I can either a) DCA purchase two shares of VWCE every month, or b) make one purchase of 24 shares at the start of every year. + +Plan A would have 12 open positions a year with small volume + +Plan B would have 1 open position with larger volume (making sure that I'm getting these terms right) + +Is closing positions easier with either of these strategies, or exactly the same? + +Thanks! +From my employer in France I receive 18 restaurant cheques (€8 each, Sodexo) every month. However, unlike some of my colleagues, I don't go out to lunch at a restaurant every day. The cheques can also be spent at supermarkets (no more than 2 at a time), but I spend much less than €144 per month on groceries. + +Officially it can only be used for certain types of food in the supermarket, but I haven't noticed anything that I bought being refused. I haven't tried to buy other things with it (the average hypermarché sells much more than just food, things like clothing and video games). + +Next month I'll be leaving and moving out of France and I'll have about 50 cheques left, which expire in early 2015 and can only be spent in France and its overseas territories. I'll be moving by train, so I can't haul a whole bunch of groceries with me either. + +Is there a way I can spend them from abroad (an online shop that ships to Belgium or the Netherlands?) or a way to spend them on other stuff than just food? Or both? Or is there a way to sell them for cash? + +Another option is that I borrow a car sometime this year to drive past the border and just haul supplies (buying them €16-17 at a time, because you can only use two at a time)? + + + +* TL;DR: How can I spend my ~50 Sodexo restaurant cheques wisely in a few weeks or after moving abroad? + +* TL;PL : Comment puis-je bien utiliser mes ~50 chèques restaurants de Sodexo dans quelques sémaines ou après déménager à l'étranger ? +Hey all, I have an account with Degiro and realized that they don't do German taxes. + +My question is, do I need to declare/pay taxes on my accumulating ETFs? I'm using a long term strategy, so not selling at all, and I'm not investing in distributing ETFs at the moment. + +I am reading about capital gains, but I thought it's only the profit when you sell an investment? +I'm just getting started with investing my hard earned $$, trying to make the best decisions to buy ETFs for long-term growth (10+ years). Which platform do you use and why? + +Context: I'm non-EU but living in NL for several years, aiming to settle here. + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/r0u45r) +23 years old, living in Ireland with a relatively small amount to invest (4-figures). + +Currently have a DEGIRO account but cannot seem to find any total market index funds or bond index funds on that platform only ETF's which I've been advised to stay away from (by friends in the industry and numerous books). + +Is it possible to invest in index funds in Europe and if so how do I do it? Anyone have any comments on the advice I received regarding ETF's? + +Thanks in advance +I currently hold iShares Core MSCI World UCITS(IE00B4L5Y983), started with it only 1 month ago. + +Now, I have this idea to replace it with Vanguard FTSE Developed World(IE00BKX55T58) for the following reasons: + +\- TER is cheaper (0.18 VS 0.20) + +\- My depot has free buy for it while doesn't have it for the iShares ETF at least till the end of the year. + +So It will allow me to save more on the costs long term. + +One is accumulative and another one is dist, but it doesn't make much difference here in Germany from the taxes standpoint. + +IE00BKX55T58 is smaller though (**259 Mio vs 13.268 Mio).** + +Do I need to consider something else? Do I overthink it and should just stick with IE00B4L5Y983? + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; +Hello everyone! + +I have recently moved to Sweden and I am a non-swede with Swedish permanent residence and I would like to start investing my money however I would like to know how to invest and take care of tax. I lived without having to care about paying tax on anything for the majority of my life so I have nearly no idea how to deal with it cheaply and efficiently, and I don't want to get into hot water with the tax agency. + +I like Revolut for it's ease of use and to invest spare change and stuff but I also heard people here recommend Degiro. I just plan to invest in a couple of stock and or ETFs. How do I do my taxes and what would I need to do? And how can I make it the easiest for myself. And if anyone can recommend any other apps I woul greatly appreciate it. Thanks! +I know this is a rather cliché question, but I'm a 25 year old graduate student and I'm a few months away from finishing my Masters here in Finland. If all goes well, I'll be offered a PhD position here, on completion. I'm only on a part-time contract and thus make close to nothing every month - barely enough to cover rent, subsidized food and transport and other expenses. I have a student loan too and I have to start paying it back in 2017. Housing prices here skyrocketing and if I see myself buying a home here I need to start saving as much as I can as soon as I can. +1. Are ASP loan/savings programs worth it? Banks like Nordea and Danske offer these and although the rate of interest is trivial (as compared to mutual funds), it does come with benefits in that it allows you to borrow a larger fraction of the price of the home you intend to buy. +2. If (1.) isn't worthwhile, are mutual funds worth it? Are mutual funds from banks (Nordea and Danske) in any way better than those by (say) Seligson etc? +3. Are there any other worthwhile options besides (1.) and (2.). +4. Any other advice related to investing or savings would be much appreciated! + +Kiitos! +Hi, + +I am looking to buy a couple of global ETFs to have a mix of equities and corporate bonds. My requirement is that the ETFs are ESG (I know, I know...). + +I am thinking to buy a mix of V3AA and V3GF (I am based in Italy). + +Does anyone know alternative Global ESG ETF funds I can consider? + +Thank you and Merry Xmas. +Hello, + +I receltly opened Revolut (UK based) and Degiro (NL based) accounts. I was told I had to declare them on my next taxes but I cannot do that since I am a student so I am still under my parents taxes. + +What should I do? +Hi guys, + +I'm from Bulgaria and I have a few thousands (up to 100k if you see my other posts) to invest and i've been looking at ways to start investing with a broker (mainly on ETF and maybe a tiny bit of day-trading and marging trades). + +Because i'm from BG the only popular option seemed to be Interactive Broker but the monthly fee is very high when starting (10 euros per month). At first i won't invest more than a few hundreds of euros to start playing around (i won't invest 100k at once). + +I've been looking around and found **Trading212** which seems to offer free trading on ETF and stocks ('im exploring the website now). + +Any user of this service care to share their experience and feedback (I've seen a few post about Trading212 and crypto but they are quite old now). + +Also if you have any suggestion for free or low-fee ETF brokers for stocks and ETFs, i'm listening (i can't sign-up to Degiro because i'm from bulgaria). + +Thanks guys, + +Cheers +I’m fairly new to stock investing (only been in index funds the past two years or so). I’m looking at stocks to buy and hold for 5+ years and this one looks really good right now. I love the company’s dedication to innovation, R&D, and expansion plans. They have excellent branding and marketing. I’m slowly seeing them growing into the mainstream food industry. + +Curious to see what people on here think about it? I understand that my opinions are purely on what I see as a customer, not so much numbers based. +PL gov decided to apply PCC tax (1% of value of each trade) to BTC. This means bot owners could owe more then 100% in tax, they can lose all BTC and be in debt. + +Today on Friday 19th at 13:00 PL we start a demonstration against this incredibly stupid move, in front of tax ministry. + +One poster for it https://www.wykop.pl/cdn/c3201142/comment_QUOfshvISHTkJBgldlmbevi7Qm8us02f.jpg + +Please share especially to any Polish friends. + +Poland really needs to recognize BTC as foreign currency and stop being most backwards in this topic in entire Europe. + + +**Edit** links: + +Some updates https://mobile.twitter.com/VoteFractal + +One of leaders of the protest and also Bitcoin advocate contact Poland: +https://mobile.twitter.com/SlawomirMentzen + +Facebook of that civil action https://m.facebook.com/events/1642547495835545/ +You guys know that scene where Bane takes over the NYSE and uses Bruce's fingerprints to dump all his shares of Wayne Enterprises. Am I wrong to think this is complete bullshit and badly scripted? It raised a couple question for me + +1) Wouldn't they revert all trades that happened during the period? Theres no way they'd expect that trade to be honored even before it goes to court, right? + +2) If a large shareholder dumps their trades what would happen if no one is on the other end to buy them? + +3) Do they really use fingerprinting for large trades? This was kinda cool. + + +I’ve invested about 2k into Bitcoin over time, and I’m about to break even with the recent bull run. I asked my Dad if I should sell since the constant price fluctuations make me nervous, and he said, “To be honest, I’m appalled you bought any in the first place.” + +He went on a tirade about how I “never listen to him” and that I should have bought out a long time ago after he told me about some FUD article he read 2 years ago about how Bitcoin was a massive scam. He said if I want to give him and Mom peace of mind, I should sell now, invest all of the money into a Roth IRA, and never look back. + +Honestly, it really got to me, and now I feel so fucking embarrassed. I didn’t know he thought I was an idiot for investing into it. I diversify by invested into regular stocks too, but he thinks any investment into crypto is just throwing money away. +[GameStop.com](https://www.gamestop.com/) || Shop [Internationally](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vyyzmx/gamestop_retail_international_nft_game_informer/) || [https://nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com) + +GameStop [Investor Relations](https://news.gamestop.com/) + +&#x200B; + +**Read** [**the Rules & Wiki**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index) **||** [**MOASS FAQ**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq) **|| Join our** [**Discord**](https://discord.gg/Superstonk) + +How do I [feed DRSBOT](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEOrphans/comments/qlvour/welcome_to_gmeorphans_read_this_post/)? Get a [user flair](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yuarvq/how_to_get_a_userflair_on_superstonk_new_emojis)? Hide [post flairs and find old posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v0oxp2/how_to_filter_by_flair_search_for_posts_on/)? + +[Reddit & Superstonk Moderation FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/reddit-faq/) + +# 🙋 ​[What's GME & should I consider investing?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qig65g/welcome_rall_looking_to_catch_up_on_the_gme_saga/) + +# 📚 Library of Due Diligence [GME.fyi](https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg) + +>A collection of over 200 of the most important, groundbreaking **D**ue **D**iligence. If you're looking to familiarize yourself with the GME bull thesis or the underhanded tactics of the short sellers involved in this trade– then this is for you + +# 🟣 [Computershare Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yjawq7) + +>Wondering what DRS is? Want to know how and why people are Direct Registering their shares? Here you'll find our guide and additional resources, as well as a welcoming community answering questions in the comments! +A little about myself.. I'm a millennial who just entered the job market in a high cost of living state California. I am making only $50k a year. I put whatever I have leftover after Rent,food,bills,taxes etc into investing in BTC because I feel like it has the best ROI of any asset at the moment. I'm lucky to not have any student loans and I'm not willing to take on further student loans to increase my education because I believe that is risky. Higher education does not guarantee higher income. + +With the constant rises of home prices I'll never be able to retire or own a home at this rate. The average 4 bedroom home in California ranges near a million dollars in relatively safe neighborhoods. With my income i'll be retiring in my 70s with no social security (i'm guessing it may run out due to government reckless spending). + +It may be a risky to put it all in Bitcoin but I feel like this is a chance worth taking. If it doesn't work out, I'll be able to recover as I'm still relatively young. I'm also into Bitcoin because I'm somewhat of a libertarian. I'm against big government and want decentralization. Taking away fiat will decrease government power. Bitcoin is a means of protecting yourself from inflation. The government is stunting bitcoin right now because of regulations and strict capital gains laws. + +I will hold no matter what and not fucking sell until BTC can be used to purchase homes and is commonly accepted as the true form of currency. + +What is your reason for being in Bitcoin? +I am planning on retiring in the next few years. If my house is paid off and the taxes are $4500/year and I don't have any other major expenses, would a $65k pension allow me to retire fairly comfortably? What expenses am I not thinking of that I should? +I’ve been in this thing since Jan ‘21, and by this point I’m mostly desensitized to the fuckery. But seeing what FTX may or may not have done with GME had me surprised and appalled. With Fidelity, Citadel, and Schwab apparently [working on a crypto exchange](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/09/13/charles-schwab-citadel-fidelity-and-others-start-crypto-exchange-edx-markets/), if they start offering tokenized stocks, wouldn’t all non-DRS purchases that go through traditional brokers have a negative price impact? + +The solution, of course, is to DRS your shares. All of them. At this point brokers have shown that they can’t be trusted, and their fuckery knows no bounds. I don’t think this stops until the entire float gets locked +I have a well paying job, don't really \*need\* the money to live and am looking at BTC as an opportunity to store wealth with the obvious speculation of appreciation over a 5-10 year period. + +I'm interested to hear any genuine arguments why this is a bad idea. Like, please try your best to convince me this is a bad idea. +**Earnings –** Loss of $0.91 per share expected +**Revenue –** $341.3 million expected + +One of the most famous meme stocks, AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has been grabbing the headlines since the Covid-19 pandemic. The American movie theatre chain will announce its second-quarter results on August 9, after the market close.  + +A darling among the speculative retail traders, AMC is considered a meme stock primarily because its popularity drives its price on web forums (WallStreetBets, Reddit, Twitter) than by business fundamentals. Analysts and trading punks hence are having a hard time anticipating the share price movement as it can fluctuate wildly, regardless of its financial performance. + +In the last two years, AMC has acquired Carmike Cinemas, Odeon Cinemas and Nordic Cinema. As of March 2021, it operated approximately 1000 theatres and **10,700** screens in the United States and internationally. + + +[https://risingcandle.com/marketnews/amc-entertainment-q2-earnings-what-to-expect/](https://risingcandle.com/marketnews/amc-entertainment-q2-earnings-what-to-expect/) +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/trading-tax-would-be-devastating-high-speed-advocates-say + + +Trading Tax Would Be ‘Devastating,’ High-Speed Advocates Say + + + +A tax on Wall Street trading would probably end up hurting Main Street investors too, according to an advocacy group for high-speed traders. + +A financial-transaction tax proposed by U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders would deal a “major blow” to retirement and pension funds, university endowments, retirees and families saving for college, the Modern Markets Initiative said in a report released Thursday. For example, a person with $100,000 invested in a 401(k) over 40 years could expect to pay $64,200 in taxes over that period if a levy on trading is implemented, the group estimated. + +“The financial-transaction tax would have a devastating impact on investors across the board,” Modern Markets Initiative Chief Executive Officer Kirsten Wegner said in an interview. “This is a retirement tax that is going to hit everyone who invests” by reducing market liquidity and making it more expensive to trade, she said. + + + + +The report is the latest in the industry’s long-running fight against such proposals. Many high-frequency trading firms list a financial-transaction tax as a significant risk to their business model. + + + +Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren, another critic of Wall Street, will face off against other Democratic presidential candidates for a debate in Houston on Thursday. Analysts have warned that the Sanders plan -- which would pay off student debt by levying a tax on trading -- could make markets more volatile, with the costs ultimately borne by American households. +Just something I find rather interesting right now. If you look back at the history of **global** markets since the GFC, we've had a spattering of issues around the world that have caused a lot of worry in the markets. Here are some examples of what we faced and moved past. + +**Major Financial Market Issues Post GFC....** + +* Eurozone crisis of 2011 +* Commodity crash of 2012-2015 (namely oil in 2014) +* Chinese hard landing in 2015-2016 and potential currency problems +* Potential Brexit crisis +* Broad emerging market recession + +**So lets take a review of the current issues that global markets are worried about...** + +* Eurozone crisis (ECB banking problems, Italy debt problems, France protests, populism, etc). This is renewed and potentially even more worrisome than it was in 2011 since the countries at risk are larger. +* Commodities have started to crash again, starting mid 2018 until now, where Oil is once again crashing. Not predicting whether this or won't will crash further, but I do find this pretty interesting overall. +* Chinese hard landing issues are on everyone's mind once again with their currency coming under pressure to stay below the USDCNY level of 7. Similar to 2015, their markets are also under intense pressure and they have a ton of structural problems with far more debt than they had in 2017-2018. Oh, and also lots of political pressure via trade war issues. +* Brexit is back on people's minds as part of Eurozone problems, and a lot of people are realizing we never really resolved this from back in 2016 as talks break down. +* Emerging markets saw a wave of monetary problems in mid 2018 and were the first to go bearish overall. + +**So is surprising that almost all the issues we're facing right now are precisely the same as issues we already faced in the past?** + +I don't think it is considering we didn't really solve any of these issues in the first place. + +I have my own views on where things are going, but that's not the point of this thread really. I just find it very interesting that we're basically being haunted by the ghosts of our past. It lends credence to those who mentioned that we simply papered over our problems from the past with central bank policies. With that said, it also shows that we can paper over our problems in the past for a time, and there isn't necessarily a reason to believe we won't continue to do that in the future. +To paraphrase Mac from *It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia,* no one makes a bet like [that without an angle](http://itsalwayssunny.wikia.com/wiki/The_Nightman_Cometh). So what's Warren Buffet's angle? + +Here's my theory: He's got a lot to gain from increased attention to the NCAA games due to the variety of companies he owns which advertise and profit from March Madness. + +* GEICO and other insurance companies advertise heavily, especially during games like these. + +* He owns Berkshire Hathaway Assurance, which could start to issue bonds to help pay for new bond-funded sports stadiums or other public works projects. + +* He recently bought Russel Corporation, a company that makes sporting equipment (such as Spalding basketballs) and clothing. + +* Jordan's Furniture has done several bets like with Red Sox fans, and they made a ton of money off of it and all the increased free press. + +* He owns 28 daily and 42 non-daily newspapers, which may get increased sales during this time period. + +* They also have stakes in Coca-cola, American Express, DirecTV, Walmart, Mars Inc, Heinz, Brooks Sports, Procotor & Gamble, etc. + +* Also, with all the above, I don't think Berkshire Hathaway is all that invested in the Olympic games, which may make even die hard sports fans sick of watching TV come March. This is a way to keep up interest after the Winter Olympics are over. + +Like [Frank Reynolds said](http://www.springfieldspringfield.co.uk/view_episode_scripts.php?tv-show=its-always-sunny-in-philadelphia&episode=s09e02), "This is America: you're either a duper or a dupee." Warren Buffet is a duper. If you watch the NCAA tournament, you're most likely a dupee. Unless you also own shares of BRK.B and don't waste a ton of money on food and other crap while watching the games. + +Disclaimer: I own some shares of BRK.B. + +Edit: I just saw that he's not running the contest, [Quicken Loans is.](http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-warren-buffett-billion-dollar-bet-ncaa-basketball-20140121,0,1345560.story#axzz2rErh6qkU) Warren Buffet is the insurer, and did the deal for a $10 Million insurance premium. So in the very unlikely event that someone gets a perfect score, BRK will be out $500 Million. But in the very likely event that no one wins, Buffet will have made $10 Million. +There is a lot of talk about saving and that's great. Once you have some saving option sorted and followed the flow chart what are some good pass time hobbies or things to "waste" our money on? + +Can't keep saving for retirement as we won't be able to do some things we could at the pre retirement age? + +**Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread.** + +- +*** +- + +**Disclaimer:** + +Moderation is less stringent in this thread since it is exempted from the karma and age requirements. Therefore, consider all information posted here with a pinch of salt, and always cross check with known sources what information you find. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and excercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here. + +**PnDs and brigades are not sanctioned by the mod team in any way as they violate [rule III](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/about/rules/). If you discover this thread is being used for these activities, bring it to the mod teams's notice via the [modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2FCryptoCurrency).** + +*** + +**Guidelines:** + +* Questions, debates, meta issues, etc are all welcome. +* Breaking news should be posted separately from this thread. + +*** + +**Rules:** + +* All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/about/rules/) apply in this thread except for the karma and age requirements. Anyone can participate. +* Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency. +* Comments will be sorted by newest first. + +*** + +**Resources and Tools:** + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. +* Click the RES subscribe button below if you would like to be notified when comments are posted. +* Consider checking out our Weekly Skeptics Thread for discussion focused solely on critical analysis. [Click here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=Weekly+Skeptics+selftext%3Acontroversial&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and select the latest thread on the search listing. + +- +*** +- + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + + + +Acme Corporation is up 23% after rave early reviews of its just introduced virtual tunneling system technology. I've been looking at this stock for a while and am attempted to jump in now. + +What are your thoughts here? +Moving into my first home soon and I’ve been researching energy grants, and there seems to be a grant that will give you up to 10k towards energy saving products (ie. Boiler, windows, solar panels) if you earn under 30k as a overall household income and the EPC rating is D or below. Well I tick both of those so I’ve been looking at getting solar panels when I apply when I move in. Has anyone noticed much cost saving with solar panels or are they a bit of a con? +About to turn 18 in a few months time. I'm planning on going to UNI next year when I finish year 13. + + + + + + + I haven't really been given any advice on money and savings. I work a part time job and am saving some money. So any advice for now and for the future when I'm an adult? Also advice on what not to do? +I've seen a few posts now about only investing in US stocks and it's crazy that Americans are being conservative while the dollar is so strong compared to every other currency. You have an absolute land-grab opportunity here akin to when your grandparents traded warships for literal islands during WW2, and that didn't turn out too badly at all. + +US stocks will remain king, but you don't own the entire company you invest in, you own a small part, and profit off the percentage gain of a stock (and dividends) and that's it. One of the fastest growing economies in the world in the last few years has been Bangladesh - not because their annual GDP beat USA or China but because they grew a greater amount compared to where they were the year before. I'm not saying invest in Bangladesh, but if Europe sinks you should be diving at the dip, not running away from it, because the % gain in their recovery will be greater. Obviously if you're 50+ years old and are scared of a little volatility don't bother. + +This sub seems to miss the mark so much with rallies and dips: + +"This is the new norm, interest rates won't be raised much or it'll crash the economy" - just before Dec 2021 crash. + +"Oil is dead, no one is buying it and renewables are only getting more advanced" - Aug-Sep 2020, oil steadily rises for a year after that. + +Now the rest of the world is dead? That's a buy signal. + +Not talking about S&P500 vs Europe, S&Ps record is good and safe and most of my holdings currently are American companies. But my focus will be on international stocks for the next while. + +My portfolio changes frequently but in the last year or 2 I've had: +Ferrexp0 (sold for 60% gain) +BP (sold for ~50%) +ING (Dutch bank, down 10% and holding, will continue to buy more) +ASML (holding, even) +Freyr battery (60% gain, holding) +Evr@z (Russian iron mine, assets froze so forced to hold, but no losses this year because of that lol) +SBSW (South African PGM mine, down 50% because miners went on strike, intend to buy more because their cash flow is insane) + +On my radar is AMAT and C, and will open a position in mining with RIO or BHP, but not sure which. +Using a throwaway account. Can't be too careful these days. + +&#x200B; + +So having spent most of the last 30 years scraping by, there's quite a few tricks I learned to squeeze a few more dollars out of too little paychecks. Here goes: + +You get a letter in the mail saying you gotta go to court for a collections thing? Fuckin' GET YOUR ASS TO COURT. Most debt collection agencies as shady as hell, and their records are spotty, kudgy bullshit. Go to court, tell the judge you want to see the exact paperwork showing you owe at all and exactly how much, and you've got a good chance of getting it thrown out. Not a great chance, but a good chance. If you don't show up? You just lost the case. + +Get your credit report. You can get one free from all three bureaus once a year. For free. Anyone saying it costs you money to get your credit report is lying to you. Get your report, comb that shit over, and call the bureaus on ANYTHING fishy or any errors. + +Cars are crazy ass expensive these days- but every car ever made is gonna need the following: oil changes, brake changes, new battery, coolant changes, tire changes. Used tire shops for the tires, everything else learn to do your own damn self. I bought a $20 socket set and a 15$ portable air compressor in 2004, still have them both. Still use them both. Other stuff- belts, alternators, a/c charge, starter, plugs/coils/etc- you can learn how and it will save you a ton of money, sure- but you know what's even better? Keep the radio turned down low so you can hear if there's something going weird. That funny noise it's making when you turn is only gonna get worse, and if you know it's coming you might be able to nip it in the bud when it's just a $60 bearing and not a $200 CV axle. + +Late model cars have WAY cheaper insurance- and anything built after the 80's is gonna have seat belts. That's still the #1 safety gizmo on any car. + +When was the last time you got a new cell phone? Mine was halfway through Obama's first term. The literal cheapest phone on offer. Still have it, still use it. Yes, I **would** love a newer phone. I would also love eating food this week. Guess which one my money is going to? + +Speaking of electronics- look at your hobbies. Video games are expensive, systems are expensive, subscriptions to gaming services are expensive. Yes, I realize it's bullshit to tell people "you aren't allowed to have fun if you're poor". But if you've got credit card bills or payday loans breathing down your neck, then your problems are too big for a couple hours on Playstation to make a dent in. It sucks, I get it. The boredom makes the poverty feel even shittier, I totally understand. But there's hobbies you can do for free- like get a bunch of books from the library. There's not just fiction there- you can get books about fixing stuff or making stuff, books for learning another language or learning a new skill. Having an extra language in your pocket helps when looking for a better job, too. + +Do you have internet at home? Find meet up groups that do hiking, going to dog parks, volunteering at homeless shelters or animal shelters, jogging, practicing public speaking, Dungeons & Dragons, there's a TON of completely free "things to do" if you go digging hard enough. + +It still sucks. I get it. But if you wanna get by, you gotta make sacrifices. + +Clothes are expensive, true- check for closeouts, discontinued stuff, markdowns, all that. Thrift stores are good too- especially the ones in "nice" parts of town. If you're really lucky, there's a thrift warehouse in your city- buy heaps of clothes by the pound there. Learn to sew buttons back on and get some of those iron-on patches. Yeah, the knees of my jeans have cartoon characters because I'm stylish, that's it. Totally not because the jeans were 4$ and the patches to cover the rips were 2$. + +I haven't had new furniture like, ever. All my stuff is either craiglist, curbside, or "a buddy of mine is getting rid of X". I've got an old leather recliner with busted seams and saggy cushions- stuffed old socks and t-shirts that don't fit in there and stitched it up with dental floss. Ugly as sin. Also comfortable. + +Food. Goddamn, this one is the absolute worst, because food is just about the only "nice" thing anyone struggling can ever have. But sometimes you got bills due and eight bucks to your name, and still gotta eat. A $1 pack of frozen veggies, 2$ for a dozen eggs, and 5$ for a ton of ramen. Cook two ramen, use one seasoning- now you got a spare for later, if things get even worse. Add half the frozen veggies when the water is boiling real good, crack that egg in there, add the noodles last. That's a filling meal, with some protein and veggies and whatnot, and since you only used one seasoning packet it's half the crazy salt. Not a GOOD meal, but enough. Things get worse? 1$ bag of rice, boil up a bunch of water, toss in one of those extra ramen packs you been saving, make chicken & rice soup. + +You can live on just baked potatoes and milk if it gets really bad- 2-3 baked potatoes and a glass of milk for a meal, two meals a day. Cost you 5-7$ for the week. You'll hate it by day three, but any food is better than no food. + +Baking soda and white vinegar for carpet stains. Dollar-bottle peroxide if they don't come out. Rubbing alcohol for anything else you don't eat off of. Store Brand dish soap and a piece of old t-shirt to do dishes. Toss that rag in the washing machine each week, it can last you for months. Is it nice-nice? Fuck no. But it's cheap. + +The amount of stuff you can fix with zip ties is mind boggling. + +Do all your shopping- regardless of what its for- half an hour before the store closes. You cannot, cannot, CAN NOT go wandering around for stuff you like-but-don't-need with that kind of time crunch. Less of a line at checkout, too. Score. + +Laundry soap is mostly water, with some stuff to make it pretty colors, some stuff to add bubbles, and some stuff to smell nice. You can make your own. I spent $20 in 2009 for about 10-lbs each of washing soda and borax, add 1/2 a cup of each to a gallon or two of hot water you've dissolved a bar of Ivory soap into, pour that into a 5-gallon Home Depot bucket- use 1/2 a cup in the wash. You'd be amazed how dirty your laundry water will come out. Wear mostly black or denim blue, and nobody will ever know your brights ain't bright. + +Glass jars with an airtight lid are goddamn amazing. Need a cup that won't spill? And is dishwasher safe? And you can put stuff in? Done. Hey, remember that laundry soap you made? Fill a jar or two, tie a ribbon on it, BOOM xmas presents. Handmade xmas presents. People love that. + +Everything has to get run through the filter of "how else can I use thins thing?" Everything. Plastic grocery store bags for garbage and cat litter. Used coffee grinds through the garbage disposer (run it with cold water on full blast. Your sink will smell like coffee AND your disposer is clean), hell even that grody last-sliver-of-soap. Remember the laundry soap I mentioned? You didn't think I used a NEW bar of Ivory, did you? + +Old toothbrushes become scrubbers for sinks and tubs and tight spaces. Old socks become heat packs- fill with dry rice, microwave 30 seconds. Those socks have holes? Roll into ball, now you got a cleanin' rag and/or dish rag. It's not gross if you've washed them first. Ok, it's still gross. But it's CHEAP. + +Everything has to have more than one useful purpose. There's a jug of old motor oil sitting in the garage, because a rag dunked in there and rubbed on door hinges stops them from squeaking, and like HELL I'm paying twelve bucks a can for WD-40. Twelve bucks is a week's food for a person. + +I've developed a reputation among my friends and colleagues for "you getting rid of A Thing? Go ask That Guy". Old pallets can cover the gap in the fence. Mismatched chair? Shit, none of my chairs have ever matched each other, maybe this one will make a pair. Old crappy table? If it's usable, its' the new kitchen table. If it's warped but solid, it's the new backyard grillin' table. If it's falling the fuck apart? Firewood. Everything has to have at least two uses. Everything. + +Hell, even dryer lint and half-used birthday cake candles. Melt the wax in the microwave, pour it into the lint, let set. Now next time you need to build a fire, you've got a handy-dandy firelighter. Or you can rub those wax candles on scratches on your furniture, and use the dryer lint to light your grill up REAL fast. + +Everything has to be done cheaper. Everything. + +Shaving is stupid expensive. Sure, the latest quasi-turbo-hyper-mega-billionty razor handle is cheap, but each replacement cartridge is like 25$ nowadays. Get you a safety-razor-handle on ebay, and a pack of 10 blades on amazon. You're gonna slice yourself aaaaaaaaalll to shit the first dozen or so times. Slow down, speedracer. Shave slowly. It'll get easier. When you're done shaving, wash razor off, then run it along a pair of jeans (not in the shaving direction, in the opposite) to strop the blade. Those ten blades will last you a year, easy. More if you really strop 'em. + +Got a date coming up? Dog parks are free. Everyone loves dogs. If she starts to catch on, offer to go for a picnic to the park- loaf of bread, jar of mustard, and cold cuts run you what, six bucks? Bring a blanket and play cheesy ass music on your phone. The more ridiculous it all is, the funnier it will be. + +I used to live in a rough part of town. Alarm systems were stupid expensive, but a big black dog I got for nearly free at the shelter who gets a treat every time he raises a ruckus at someone getting too close? Not only cheaper, but better. Nobody wants to mess with a big loud dog, and black dogs usually are discounted at the shelter because people don't want 'em. Because they are scary, see. And you want something that is super sweet with you, and scary with creepers. Hey, there's that "everything has to have at least two uses" again. + +Is it cynical and miserable and kind of a shit way to live? Yes. It's boring and depressing and lonely and awful and bland and miserable. But so is being poor. And all this may, after long enough, help you be less poor. + +'Sides, you got that big black doggo now. It's not ALL bad. +The quotes out of context sound more dire than reality would seem to indicate. I feel the general consensus is that the EU would never allow Airbus to go under, just as the same would be true with the US and Boeing. + +I am looking at the price of EADSY right now and can only think it's a good buy and hold. If it's under $14/share I feel there's money to be made. + +Just curious what others like or dislike about the only other commercial airline maker in the world. +I'm wondering what I might be able to draw when I get to 57 years old. What assumptions do you make about growth and withdrawal rate? + +Do IFA's use a standard model? + +Thanks! + + +I was wondering if anyone could give me some information on what I can do in this situation and whether it's actually worth doing anything. + +I work in a smallish company which had about 15 employees at the start of the year. + +For the past few months we have had staggered pay, randomly not being paid "On or around the 1st" as our contract states. I'd be getting 60% of it and then the final 40% after a few days. We were told it was accounting errors and barely given any insight to what was happening.