diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_123.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_123.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_123.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ +https://preview.redd.it/7eumoto7khl91.png?width=1238&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fe46b8d019a22ec7084704935b5293195b90fc6 + +—---------------------- + +&#x200B; + +In the world of economics, there are two general factors that affect prices broadly: supply and demand. Since the Fed cannot increase the supply of commodities in any meaningful way, the only way they can broadly effect prices downwards is demand-side, meaning to fight inflation they must “destroy” demand by making it prohibitively expensive to borrow, crushing equity markets, and eliminating the much vaunted “wealth effect” that they claim rescued the US economy from the depths of 2008. + +**The problem is, this will certainly cause a recession (actually it already has,** [**Q1 GDP printed -1.6%**](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product)**, and** [**Q2 came in at -0.9%**](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product)**).** Normally, a recession is in many ways a good thing; leveraged businesses and unhealthy enterprises are cleaned out of the system, temporary pain is inflicted on the economy, but this lays the groundwork for new firms to rise out of the ashes. + +However, in an economy as indebted as ours, a slight increase in interest rates can mean catastrophic increases in interest expenses in the financial system- especially for over indebted companies, right as their net margins are squeezed by inflation. + +The Fed is currently intent on fighting record inflation by crushing bondholders, including holders of US Treasuries and Corporate Debt. This will have disastrous implications for the American economy at large. + +Let’s take a look at the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index (AGG): + +&#x200B; + +[AGG Index](https://preview.redd.it/o9c9a03fkhl91.png?width=1238&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f6fbe056914416244c0b3a4d4bcc750078d3be9) + +(The total return of AGG year-to-date is shown in the dark black line. The other lines show the total returns for the AGG for each of the prior 30 years.) + +Prior to 2022, the worst year was 1999, when the AGG had a total return of -5%. Its best year was 1995, when it rose 19%. **This year it is down 12%. April was the worst month ever for the bond market.** + +The Fed is on a single-minded mission to fight inflation, [according to Jim Bianco](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/05/07/jim-bianco-the-fed-will-crush-inflation-and-with-it-the-stock-market) (president and macro strategist at his own firm, Bianco Research, L.L.C.). To do that, it will crush stock prices and home values. + +**“We have seen nothing like this,” Bianco said. “The bond market has never been this bad in terms of total return.” He likened that decline to the S&P being down 50% to 60%.** + +There is “tremendous stress” in the bond market, he said. “There is going to be a problem,” but the bond market is too complex to say where it will eventually be. + +&#x200B; + +[$15.5 Tn Drawdown in both Equities and Fixed Income](https://preview.redd.it/9qtv4fnkkhl91.png?width=798&format=png&auto=webp&s=03b608d8b70a35d756bd27ec5f79c12af69f275b) + +“The only way to get the inflation rate down that much is to keep markets under stress,” Bianco said. **“The Fed will raise rates until inflation comes down or something breaks.”** + +**This mirrors my predictions of the Fed taper backfiring, sending us into a deep recession or depression, and QE Infinity beginning (see** [**Dollar Endgame Part 4.2**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qassc0/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/)**).** + +**The Fed, unknowingly or not, has led us into a hellish dimension of their own design- the Upside Down. They will try everything to escape, causing escalating volatility in markets and worsening inflation, in a futile attempt to get out of the debt trap they created. And if they do nothing, the downturn will only get worse.** + +Bond ETFs are being taken to the woodshed. iShares’ 20 Year ETF, TLT, the most popular long term Treasury ETF, is down a whopping 24% this year alone. Vanguard’s version, VGLT, is down more than [21% this year](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vglt#). All 6 core bond ETFs recommended by Morningstar are down more than 10%. + +&#x200B; + +[iShares Long Bond ETF](https://preview.redd.it/z1xj500pkhl91.png?width=1398&format=png&auto=webp&s=690c5606f1e3998d7d4c59b259339d9c34ef9382) + +This last Friday, August 26th, bond funds experienced their [biggest outflows in 8 weeks](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-bond-funds-record-biggest-weekly-outflow-eight-weeks-2022-08-26/). (Reuters) - “Investors dumped U.S. bond funds in the week to Aug 24 as they waited to hear a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday which will be scrutinised for clues on the pace of forthcoming interest rate hikes. [(more context)](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-daly-50-bps-or-75-bps-sept-rate-hike-reasonable-2022-08-18/) + +According to Refinitiv Lipper data, U.S. bond funds witnessed outflows worth a net $8.81 billion, the most in a week since June 22.” + +Furthermore, Emerging Markets were hit hard as well- according to the [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-08-26-2022/card/emerging-market-relief-rally-stumbles-JPe78jZIHT2Zoku79di5), investors pulled $108 million from EM bond funds last week, on resurging concerns that the strong dollar and the Fed aggressively tightening can put emerging markets under further pressure. + +This matters because the bedrock of American financial planning is the 60/40 risk parity portfolio- 60% stocks, 40% bonds. This is the most common portfolio recommended to Baby Boomers (who hold the vast majority of US wealth), and is taught to financial advisors by firms such as Northwestern Mutual, Vanguard, Fidelity, Goldman, and many others. Most advisors will tell you this portfolio is bulletproof, it has rarely had down years, and it is a “set and forget” method to steadily build wealth passively. + +The portfolio construction is predicated on the theory that stocks and bonds are inversely correlated- when one is up, the other is flat or even slightly down- so the portfolio automatically hedges itself. In theory. + +However, what they fail to mention is that this portfolio is usually only back-tested with a 40year timeframe- when we run the calculations out further, we see that actually stocks and bonds move together more often, and less time inversely, than previously thought. For example, from 1883- 2015, stocks and bonds moved in tandem 30% of the time, and moved inversely only 11%. It is only the past few decades of quantitative easing, infinite liquidity, and zero bound interest rates that this portfolio has worked as intended. (Refer to [this research paper](https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/2b34894bzsaqsbcx) by Artemis Capital- positive correlation is bad in this case, see below for the sections marked in red). + +&#x200B; + +[Bonds and Stocks are more correlated than previously believed](https://preview.redd.it/w72p7k5skhl91.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=57edca89121409c5b9bd3805ddafd4c162e51d77) + +Debt defaults spreading throughout an economy is par for the course during a recession. This can be clearly seen in a [graph of non-financial corporates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=VLW) debt to GDP. (i.e. US businesses excluding banks and broker-dealers) + +&#x200B; + +[Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP](https://preview.redd.it/7vrcvg0ykhl91.png?width=754&format=png&auto=webp&s=4dffeca57a7bd83b9899e3f88de34e16af0a34ae) + +Corporate Debt as a percent of GDP rises during periods of economic growth, and falls as the economy contracts- businesses forced to pay off debt, cut expenses, and some even go bankrupt. Now, this figure is higher than ever before- and the recent drop in the chart since 2020 **is purely semantics, as they are using gross GDP as the denominator.** + +This basically means they include inflation as economic growth- GDP is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in an economy, and if prices rise, nominal (gross) GDP will rise, even if the economy is not growing at all. **The growth is only an illusion.** + +**Thus, we are still likely only slightly below that 2020 level, which is well north of 50% of GDP- the height of the 2008 bubble didn’t even get here. This implies that the coming downturn, if taken in full stride without a restart of QE, will be worse than 2008.** + +On the housing front, real estate markets are cooling off rapidly. Rising Fed Funds rates mean that mortgage rates are rising in tandem (since almost every interest rate in our economy is calculated as some premium on top of the Fed Funds rate or a Treasury yield). + +For reference, a $500k mortgage with a 50k down payment, excluding taxes, homeowners insurance, and other expenses, would cost approximately $2,037 a year ago. Now, that same mortgage costs $3,061, or 50% more. With real wages falling due to inflation rising faster than wage growth, this means that housing demand is falling rapidly. + +[Bloomberg reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/hottest-us-housing-markets-now-have-bigger-share-of-price-cuts): “US cities that saw some of the biggest jumps in home prices during the pandemic now have the largest shares of price cuts, according to data compiled by [Zillow Group Inc](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ZG:US). + +Overall, the proportion of active real estate listings with lower prices has increased in all 50 of the largest US metropolitan markets tracked by Zillow. In these cities, 11.5% of homes saw a price cut in May, on average, up from 8.2% a year earlier. + +**Among the 50 metros in Zillow’s data, 32 had more than 10% of listings with a price decline. In eight cities, the share has jumped by at least 5 percentage points over the past year.”** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5t5ahvbalhl91.png?width=1232&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9c9f1f12f3a077a7147d05deaa2fd611cc84657 + +What is even more concerning is the skyrocketing cost of mortgages. With the recent hikes in interest rates, and negative real wages gains due to inflation, US mortgage payments as percentage of income are higher than at the top of the subprime bubble. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/t20iu57elhl91.png?width=1272&format=png&auto=webp&s=71fafed3d221a1679c416d67b81de78e784e059b + +Housing, food and energy represent inelastic goods in an economy- these are not things we want, they are things we need. An increase in these prices means less disposable income to spend on other goods - portending a fall in business revenues for firms that aren’t in these vital industries. + +[Macro Alf on Twitter points out](https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1562477584654409728/photo/1)\- “Housing market trends lead economic and labor market cycles by 6-12 months. Right now, the US housing market is signalling unemployment rate will likely be above 6% in 2023: another data point which is inconsistent with a soft landing.” + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5unodflilhl91.png?width=1204&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1bd89a37ec39db241962117bd56f1a2e2d2d1d9 + +The US Treasury Yield Curve, a graphical representation of the yields for the most common maturity treasuries and t-bills, is currently deeply inverted. The two- to 10-year segment of the yield curve inverted in late March 2022 for the first time since 2019. + +(The term [yield curve](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp) refers to the relationship between the short- and long-term interest rates of [fixed-income securities](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fixed-incomesecurity.asp) issued by the U.S. Treasury. An [inverted yield curve](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp) occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates.) + +Under normal circumstances, the yield curve is not inverted since debt with longer maturities typically carry higher interest rates than nearer-term ones. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vbamzx8klhl91.png?width=1708&format=png&auto=webp&s=a010d8dbc093ab544db15ccf81472fb94a1b1160 + +As investors fear an economic downturn, however, they begin buying longer dated maturities en masse, driving up bond prices, and therefore driving down yields on the 7 year and 10 year bonds. (recall that bond prices and bond yields are inversely correlated). This causes the 10yr yield to dip below the 2 year yield, which in a healthy market would never happen. + +**The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession since 1955, with a recession following between six and 24 months, according to a** [**2018 report**](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2018-20.pdf) **by researchers at the San Francisco Fed. It offered a false signal just once in that time.** + +This indicator is one of the most accurate forecasters of recession- and given the depth of the inversion, the bond market is foreshadowing a much worse downturn than even the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. + +(The chart below portrays the difference between the 2 year and the 10 year (this pair is often called 2s10s.) When it is positive, the 10yr yield is higher, and we have an upward sloping curve. When it is 0, the curve is flat, and when it is negative, the curve is inverted. Currently it is negative) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/56kib3zolhl91.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=8815ff7e4dbecae2ab7e798d78ce274b84ae9eb8 + +[Bloomberg notes](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/treasury-yield-curve-inversion-has-scope-to-deepen-bofa-says): “And it isn’t just the US bond market that’s signaling that a recession may be on the horizon. [New Zealand](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/RFJOJ0T0G1KW)’s two-year yields exceeded 10-year rates for the first time since 2015 on Wednesday. The difference between Australia’s 10- and three-year bond futures -- its favored measure -- is at the flattest in more than a decade, while the UK’s yield curve briefly inverted earlier this month.” + +All these worrying recession indicators hit as the US consumer is at its weakest in at least the last 40 years- [Credit card balances increased $46 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/08/02/credit-card-debt-inflation/) in the second quarter, a 5.5 percent increase from the first quarter, and there was also an uptick in new credit card accounts. The 13 percent increase from the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022 was the biggest such jump in more than 20 years! + +**People are going further into debt just to stay alive- this can’t possibly be sustainable. The debt monster continues to grow.** + +Joelle Scally, administrator of the Center for Microeconomic Data at the New York Fed, stated in a news release, “The second quarter of 2022 showed robust increases in mortgage, auto loan, and credit card balances, driven in part by rising prices. “While household balance sheets overall appear to be in a strong position, we are seeing rising delinquencies among subprime and low-income borrowers with rates approaching pre-pandemic levels.” + +**And to think, all this economic damage and the Fed hasn’t even BEGUN to tighten! They’ve raised rates, sure- but if you check** [**this post I made a few weeks ago**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vp8k3j/fed_purchases_423bn_usts_and_mbs_from_june_1st9th/)**, you see that the Fed has run a pathetic excuse of a tightening program.** + +The Fed’s total assets (Balance sheet) is charted below, the beginning of the period set to early 2020. This tightening cycle is the slowest and weakest the Fed has ever undertaken. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qqaz949rlhl91.png?width=2336&format=png&auto=webp&s=16de6ea72e656ff95b48df5414461cb794811f1a + +They’re using a covert method of financial engineering to slow down the taper- they were slated to do $95B a month of tapering, i.e. allowing their Treasury or MBS debt securities to mature (or sell them), and not printing more to replace them. This program would have been smaller than the QE of 2021, which saw $120B a month of liquidity added to the system. + +But they aren’t even following through with their own plan. The accounting gimmick results from them using a loophole to “reinvest” funds back into Treasuries or MBS. + +Understandably, the Fed, with it’s massive holdings of bonds, receives interest payments monthly. These payments were usually written off in previous tightening cycles (literally the Fed can go into their central account and delete their own deposits from the system). + +**This time, they’re using the billions of interest each month to plow back into new Treasuries or MBS. This isn’t “printing money” technically they argue, since no new bank reserves are being created- rather they are just “recycled” from the existing system.** + +**Either way, the Fed is not tightening at the proposed $95B a month pace, rather they have drawn their balance sheet down about $100B since April, four months ago- this is 25% of where we should be if the taper was being run correctly.** + +Even the incompetent administrators on the Open Market Desk at the Fed must know that if they truly taper, and destroy the trillions in easy money they pumped into the system, the entire edifice will fall. The economy is already headed toward severe recession, the Eurozone is collapsing from an energy crisis turning into a full blown inflationary crisis, and layoffs are beginning to spread through the American economy. + +If they destroyed the excess liquidity that was pumped in the system, I believe a New Great Depression would begin within months. Stocks would collapse, the Federal Government would default on debts, and millions of businesses would fail. Their very credibility would be threatened, and the people might drive them out of power. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/da76e0axlhl91.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3b8fe09b7c4ce7ce7667a650858f34cb7b97f9b + +Our debt to GDP is higher now than even the peak of the 1930s and 1940s, during the last zenith of the debt super-cycle. Further, the consumer is at record loan to income, with credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances surging in Q2. The American middle class simply cannot withstand more debt. + +**They are consigned to walk a tightrope, on one side the perilous deflationary spiral, and the other the burning inferno of inflation. They must hike rates, but they can’t taper- they must get stocks to come down, but not too much- they must induce recession, but not depression. It is a virtually impossible task.** + +**Fed officials walk this rope because they themselves created it- with the years of zero bound interest rates, infinite liquidity, and permanent bailout facilities such as Standing Repo, they created a sick, distorted version of our original financial system.** + +**The economic cognoscenti have opened the door into the Upside Down- a mirror dimension where nothing is quite as it seems. We’ve never traveled to this dimension at any other point in financial history - so we can’t even discern the difference between it and normalcy.** + +**This is a strange place- where inflation bankrupts America while the Dollar soars on foreign exchange; markets rally as jobless claims rise; and the Almighty Fed is the only indicator to watch.** + +**Markets should be down 35% here and trending lower, CDS spreads should break out, credit markets should be in absolute bloodbath, and yet, here we are- markets are down, but not too much, inflation is “under control”, and the definition of recession itself is changing! (**[**see this**](https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/how-do-economists-determine-whether-the-economy-is-in-a-recession/)**)** + +**The governing elites meander around, oblivious to the danger that lies ahead.** + +&#x200B; + +[The Upside Down](https://preview.redd.it/4jlub7k0mhl91.png?width=2470&format=png&auto=webp&s=e050c4797a9acd198ec878793c110904cbf87b8a) + +&#x200B; + +**Perhaps they are missing something- maybe there is Demogorgon lurking deep in the tunnels.** + +**Mad with hunger, he is ready to rend flesh and bone asunder** + +**Perhaps this debt monster already has his claws deep in the Treasury, the banking systems, and the boards of corporate America** + +**His talons might reach across the nation, poisoning everything he touches, as he squats in the shadows** + +**His tendrils spread, infecting new victims and sickening the rest** + +**He feeds on rates, and lives on time** + +**Every day and every hour the interest accrues; the debt accumulates,** + +**and he grows stronger and stronger;** + +**Perhaps he is just biding his time, patiently and silently-** + +**Until his Power is too great for even the Almighty Fed to overcome.** + +&#x200B; + +**Perhaps.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# Epilogue—---------------------- + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +This talk of the Fed walking a tightrope of stagflation draws me back to the title sequence written almost a year ago for [Part 4.0 of The Dollar Endgame](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/png8nu/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/)\- + +&#x200B; + +[The Ships of State ](https://preview.redd.it/gbqed17emhl91.png?width=1244&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a148114705ad9be9fb77bccd6cc90e1587c4d71) + +&#x200B; + +**“Imagine the world economy as an armada of ships passing through a narrow and dangerous strait leading to the sea of prosperity. Navigating the channel is treacherous- err too far to one side and your ship plunges off the waterfall of deflation; but too close to the other and it burns in the hellfire of inflation.** The global fleet is tethered by chains of trade and investment so if one ship veers perilously off course it pulls the others with it. + +Our only salvation is to hoist our economic sails and harness the winds of innovation and productivity. It is said that de-leveraging is a perilous journey and beneath these dark waters are many a sunken economy of lore. **Print too little money and we cascade off the waterfall like the Great Depression of the 1930s... print too much and we burn like the Weimar Republic Germany in the 1920s...** fail to harness the trade winds and we sink like Japan in the 1990s. + +**On cold nights when the moon is full you can watch these ghost ships making their journey back to hell... they appear to warn us that our resolution to avoid one fate may damn us to the other.”** + +**(**[**Artemis**](https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/u8q6ygn3h8j5w99f)**)** + +&#x200B; + +\------------------------ + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**You can follow me on Twitter at** [peruvian\_bull](https://twitter.com/peruvian_bull)**. All other accounts are impersonators/scam accounts. I will never ask for personal information, nor solicit or offer financial advice.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +*Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that – an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.* +I am interested in knowing why PoW is considered to be better than PoS despite the fact that if the 3 largest BTC mining pools banded together they could do a 51% attack. I may be over simplifying this possibility hence why I ask for furthur input. Is having such large mining pools a threat to the network? + +\*edit\* Thank you for your responses, see replies below for corrections on where I went wrong with my assumptions, I have learnt a lot +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/microsoft-msft-earnings-q1-2021.html + +Here’s how the company did: + +Earnings: $1.82 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.54 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. + +Revenue: $37.15 billion, vs. $35.72 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. + +Microsoft revenue grew 12% on an annualized basis, down from 13% growth in the prior quarter, according to a statement. + +Revenue for commercial PCs cratered 22% months after support for Windows 7 ended and the coronavirus pandemic took hold; the category had surged last year, making outperformance this year more difficult. + +But one of the fastest-growing parts of Microsoft, the Azure public cloud for hosting applications and websites, grew 48%, accelerating from 47% in the prior quarter. Microsoft doesn’t disclose revenue from Azure in dollars. Analysts had expected around 44% growth. +I have a non-profit project that I am helping to build in Kampala, the capital of Uganda. + + +My family always wants to go to the beach, stay at nice places, all that BS. If it makes the kids happy, then it makes me happy. But you know what would make me happy? Finishing that project in Uganda and seeing other cultures, not the tourist version of that culture. I want to see real life. I want to hug the people I am hoping to help. I don't want to hear what the news says about a place. I want to experience it. + + +So in light of that I made a decision to take my 7 year old boy and myself, and we are going to go to Uganda this spring. + +That's what FatFIRE means to me. I can say eff you to everything else and do what I want to do. +(Intro): **I am getting increasingly worried about the amount of warning signals that are flashing red for hyperinflation- I believe the process has already begun, as I will lay out in this paper. The first stages of hyperinflation begin slowly, and as this is an exponential process, most people will not grasp the true extent of it until it is too late.** I know I’m going to gloss over a lot of stuff going over this, sorry about this but I need to fit it all into four parts without giving everyone a 400 page treatise on macro-economics to read. Counter-DDs and opinions welcome. This is going to be a lot longer than a normal DD, but I promise the pay-off is worth it, knowing the history is key to understanding where we are today. + +&#x200B; + +**SERIES (Parts 1-4) TL/DR: We are at the end of a MASSIVE debt supercycle. This 80-100 year pattern** ***always*** **ends in one of two scenarios- default/restructuring (deflation a la Great Depression) or** [**inflation**](https://imgur.com/gallery/3rduvh3) **(hyperinflation in severe cases (a la Weimar Republic). The United States has been abusing it’s privilege as the** [**World Reserve Currency**](https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/will-us-dollar-lose-its-reserve-status) **holder to enforce its political and economic hegemony onto the Third World, specifically by creating massive artificial demand for treasuries/US Dollars, allowing the US to borrow extraordinary amounts of money at extremely low rates for decades, creating a Sword of Damocles that hangs over the global financial system.** + +**The massive debt loads have been transferred worldwide, and sovereigns are starting to call our bluff. Governments papered over the 2008 financial crisis with debt, but never fixed the underlying issues, ensuring that the crisis would return, but with greater ferocity next time. Systemic risk (from derivatives) within the US financial system has built up to the point that collapse is all but inevitable, and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated it will do whatever it takes to defend legacy finance (banks, broker/dealers, etc) and government solvency, even at the expense of everything else (The US Dollar).** + +# Updated Complete Table of Contents: (Especially read parts marked with x) + +&#x200B; + +* [Part 1.0: The Global Monetary System](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4vzau/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) (x) +* [Part 1.5: Triffin’s Dilemma and the New Rome](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4w45f/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) (x) +* [Part 2.0: Reflexivity and the Shadows of Black Monday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o727oc/the_dollar_endgame_part_2_the_ouroboros/) +* [Part 2.5: Derivatives and the Alchemy of Risk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o72fc1/the_dollar_endgame_part_25_the_ouroboros/) +* [Part 3.0: Debt Cycles and Great Depression](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogzoco/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) +* [Part 3.5: The Money Illusion](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oh0m2s/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) +* [Part 4.0: The Weimar Republic](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/png8nu/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) +* [Part 4.1: Nightmare of Hyperinflation](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ppenly/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) +* [Part 4.2: Financial Gravity & The Fed’s Dilemma](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qassc0/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/) (x) +* Part 4.3: Economic Warfare & The End of Bretton Woods (YOU ARE HERE) + +&#x200B; + +**If you haven’t already, PLEASE go back and read all prior posts. We’ll be referring heavily to concepts like Triffin’s Dilemma, Derivative Feedback loops, and Debt Supercycles throughout Part 4. I want to make sure everyone is on the same page as we delve into Part 4, the largest and most comprehensive section yet.** + +**NOTE!- this section will be almost exclusively focused on Triffin’s Dilemma and the structural issues with the Bretton Woods US Dollar Currency system, which are explained in depth in Part 1.0 and Part 1.5- make sure to read these two posts in entirety before continuing.** + +&#x200B; + +# “At World’s End” + +[Credit to Artemis Capital for Artwork](https://preview.redd.it/uhu30f6op7i81.png?width=1368&format=png&auto=webp&s=a21411de1a97397de798f555c3f49fd3f333e9d3) + +# + +# PART 4.2 “Economic Warfare & The End of Bretton Woods” + +# The Dollar as a WMD + +**Most Americans today walk around aware of the fact that they are a superpower. Military parades, fighter jet flyovers at football games, and clips showing American soldiers engaging enemy combatants are commonplace. However, what most Americans do not know, is the secret mighty Excalibur that the U.S. Government wields in order to achieve most of its ends- the Dollar itself.** + +**Since the end of WWII, many conflicts have been resolved through sanctions and negotiation, at the direction of the United States. In almost every case, the U.S. has used the Treasury and it’s control over the banking system, to effectively choke and strangle powerful opponents without ever firing a single shot.** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jthi609vp7i81.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5e66e7ead2afff06dc3f2a4cf138bd1009329cf + +&#x200B; + +**This system is best described by Joseph Wang, a former Senior Trader at the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Desk, in his book Central Banking 101 (page 98):** + +**“The Eurodollar system is offshore, but ultimately, all dollar banking transactions no matter the origin will have a link to the U.S. banking system. After all, offshore dollars would not really be dollars if they were not fungible with onshore dollars. The U.S. government has authority over the U.S. banking system, and by extension, over the offshore banking system.** + +**This implies that the US government has authority over virtually EVERY dollar transaction done through the banking system in the entire world. Let’s walk through an example to see how this works.** + +Suppose a bank in Kazakhstan named Kbank has a dollar loan business. Kbank makes a $1000 loan to its client and credits its clients account for $1000. The client then withdraws that $1000 to pay a supplier who banks with a US Bank (named Ubank). Kbank is going to have to settle a payment of $1000 with Ubank. + +**There are two ways it can do this:** + +1. **If it has a reserve account at the fed, then it can send Ubank a wire for $1000 in reserves OR** +2. **If it holds its dollars as a bank deposit at a U.S. Commercial Bank, then it will have to ask that commercial bank to send Ubank $100 in reserves.** + +**In the second case, Kbank’s commercial bank will send $1000 in reserves to Ubank while reducing Kbank’s deposit balance on its books by $1000. In either example, the transaction must go through the U.S. banking system.** + +**The U.S. government, through its control of the U.S. banking system, has the power to shut anyone out of the dollar banking system. If the U.S. government decides that someone should be sanctioned, then that person will not be able to receive or send dollars through banks anywhere in the world.** + +**Banks take these sanctions very seriously because if they are caught violating them, they may also be shut out of the U.S. banking system or SWIFT itself! (Part 1.5 discusses SWIFT). This would be a death sentence to any bank. In June of 2014, BNP Paribas (a French bank) admitted to helping Sudan, Iran and Cuba evade U.S. sanctions and move money through the U.S. banking system. They were forced to pay a breathtaking fine of $9 billion (**[**source**](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bnp-paribas-settlement/u-s-imposes-record-fine-on-bnp-in-sanctions-warning-to-banks-idUSKBN0F52HA20140701)**).”** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/l4aclz65q7i81.png?width=933&format=png&auto=webp&s=21092072d3bf28223eef820d36fde16a18df8037 + +&#x200B; + +**See below for some more examples- and ALL of these are banks located outside the US:** + +&#x200B; + +[Deutsche Bank fined $258m for violating US sanctions](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/04/deutsche-bank-us-sanctions-fine) + +[U.S. Indicts Turkish Bank on Charges of Evading Iran Sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/15/us/politics/halkbank-turkey-iran-indictment.html) + +[Standard Chartered to pay $1.1 billion for sanctions violations](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-stanchart-sanctions-settlement-fed/standard-chartered-to-pay-1-1-billion-for-sanctions-violations-idUSKCN1RL1TV) + +[Report: Bahrain bank helped Iran evade sanctions for years](https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/03/report-bahrain-bank-helped-iran-evade-sanctions-for-years/) + +&#x200B; + +(The list continues on and on. Again, these are ALL FOREIGN BANKS- the US technically has no jurisdiction here! This was elaborated on in a book called “[Treasury’s War](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B06XCGB364/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1)” by Juan Zarate, a former senior Treasury official and architect of modern financial warfare) + +**This may not seem a big deal on the surface- these countries are enemies of the United States, right? But this demonstrates how US policy can overrule the policy of sovereign nations such as France. France had no such sanctions against these countries- but the US Treasury Department can effectively force French banks to follow American guidelines!** + +**Imagine if China had this power- and demanded that Canada could not trade with Taiwan, cutting both countries off from the international monetary system if they did so.** + +**To many foreign officials, the US has become drunk with this power, and is using it to tyrannize other countries to follow American policy. (Again, I am not arguing in defense of countries like Iran, which have anti-democratic values, just demonstrating that the US has immense power over even Western countries and can effectively set their foreign policy FOR them)** + +**By sanctioning countries and cutting them out of the US banking system, the US can effectively send them back to the Stone Age. Iran, for example, now has extreme difficulty in settling currency for oil and gas contracts-** [**and has even defaulted to pricing it’s oil in gold in order to receive payment!**](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-oil-payment/iran-to-accept-payment-in-gold-from-trading-partners-idUSTRE81S0GU20120229) + +Many other countries are chafing under this Dollar Dominant system: + +5/22/18- [US Sanction power may be reaching its limit, “response to Iran shows global economy won’t be bossed around forever”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-22/u-s-sanction-power-may-be-reaching-its-limit) + +**“You f\*\*\*ing Americans”, the message read. “Who are you to tell us, the rest of the world, that we’re not going to deal with Iranians?” - UK banker, 2012** + +5/28/18- [India says it only follows UN sanctions, not unilateral US sanctions on Iran](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-iran/india-says-it-only-follows-un-sanctions-not-unilateral-us-sanctions-on-iran-idUSKCN1IT0WJ?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews) + +5/9/18- [Australia and Japan still support Iran Deal](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-ap-top-news-malcolm-turnbull-japan-north-america-7769da33651a449196128dbdf1bcf48c) + +6/6/18- [Merkel warns of G-7 split over Trump’s “America First”, says World becoming “re-ordered globally”](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-06/merkel-warns-of-g-7-summit-split-over-trump-s-america-first) + +&#x200B; + +**The US, by controlling the World Reserve Currency (The Dollar), wields immense economic and financial power over most of the globe. However, this power corrupts and corrodes the host over time- and warning signs are beginning to appear signaling that America’s time as global economic hegemon may be coming to an end.** + +&#x200B; + +# The Unraveling of the Global Monetary System + +Before we continue, let us do a quick review of the essential paradox of Global Reserve Currencies- Triffin’s Dilemma, covered in depth in Parts 1 and 1.5. (Again, please go back and read these sections!) + +**In August 1971, after the closing of the Gold Window, the Dollar was officially off the Gold Standard. In the turmoil that followed, currency markets began to experience rapid volatility and signs of inflation began to appear. Many G10 countries began to worry about the Dollar’s sustainability as a world reserve currency.** + +**In a meeting of the G10 in late 1971 in Rome, US Treasury Secretary John Connally** [**famously quipped**](https://www.ipe.com/the-dollar-is-our-currency-but-its-your-problem/25599.article)**,** + +# “The Dollar is OUR Currency, but YOUR problem!” + +# + +https://preview.redd.it/7gmwubsjq7i81.png?width=299&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7112b19e234b91cdc6ebe5b259439180de077b5 + +&#x200B; + +**He was referring to Triffin’s Dilemma, and the unfavorable effects it would have on developing countries while boosting US economic and thus political dominance.** + +[The Triffin dilemma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma) or [Triffin paradox](https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1011/how-the-triffin-dilemma-affects-currencies.aspx) is the conflict of economic interests that arises between short-term domestic and long-term international objectives for countries whose currencies serve as global [reserve currencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency). + +&#x200B; + +Quick recap: + +* Post WW2, the US Dollar became the World Reserve Currency (WRC), and thus was used as a “safe haven currency” by other central banks, and used as a settlement currency for international trade. +* This creates massive artificial demand for US Dollars and Treasuries, since these nations need them for trade and to hold in reserve in case of a crisis in their homeland (Thailand in 1997) +* This global demand for US Dollars means the US has to be a Net EXPORTER of Dollars. The opposite side of the trade of Dollars is Goods/Investments, and thus the US has to be a Net IMPORTER of Goods/Investments. +* This means the US HAS TO consume more than it produces, and receives more investments than it makes. Over time, this leads to a US surplus of debt and consumption, and a lack of investment and production. +* For example, Manufacturing jobs thus get transferred overseas, bolstering the economy of foreign countries (China) and weakening the host country (US). +* This loss of manufacturing means wage deflation/stagnation in US as domestic jobs disappear +* (Thus contributing to political polarization and economic dispair, rising rates of depression/suicide and drug abuse, homelessness) +* The artificial demand for Treasuries also lowers borrowing costs massively, inducing the US government to borrow and spend more than it otherwise would, creating fiscal deficits and unsustainable levels of debt. +* Eventually, the United States will reach a breaking point, where the manufacturing base is completely gone, and the debt levels are so high, that foreign creditors will not lend it money any more. +* When this happens, the Government’s only recourse is to either slash spending immediately (which will lead to severe recession) or print dollars, which will lead to rampant inflation. +* The Endgame is the replacement of the World Reserve Currency with a new one, which can cause horrible inflation, as the old WRC loses demand and all overseas dollars come back to the US to roost. + +(Below is a graphic of the results of US being a WRC holder from the point of view of a developing country, Liberia) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/03e74houq7i81.png?width=1432&format=png&auto=webp&s=3012e41da534af2a70acbac814af54e04f810d59 + +&#x200B; + +The Trade Deficit was mostly propped up in the 1950s and 1960s as Europe rebuilt after the carnage of WW2 and the US was able to be a manufacturing powerhouse. Global trade was mostly centered around the US, so the US did not need to really export dollars and the ill effects of Triffin’s dilemma. Post 1974, and the entry of the Petrodollar system, and Balance of Trade deteriorated significantly as global trade boomed and the US began to need to constantly export dollars (i.e. import goods / grow trade deficits). + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/rkkmp0h3r7i81.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=f30576c41e9b5cbeb942ffb46c6353b8c298709b + +&#x200B; + +[Lyn Alden](https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/) summarizes the issue perfectly: + +“When most other countries run trade deficits, they eventually have a big enough currency devaluation so that their exports become more competitive and importing becomes more expensive, which usually prevents multi-decade extremes from building up. + +However, because the petrodollar system creates persistent international demand for the dollar, it means the US trade deficit never is allowed to correct and balance itself out. **The trade deficit is held open persistently by the structure of the global monetary system, which creates a permanent imbalance, and is the flaw that eventually, after a long enough timeline, brings the system down**.” + +**For those of us who follow monetary economics closely, omens of the death of the Dollar as WRC are beginning to appear.** + +We’ll start with Treasuries, the backbone of the Global Financial System. + +Remember, foreigners have to recycle their trade surpluses back in USDs in order to settle global trade and hold enough currency reserves in their Central Banks. Historically, they did so by buying US Treasuries, since these are considered “risk free assets” (See [Foreign Holdings of Federal Debt](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN), below) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/u2irjrt8r7i81.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae3789be86df4cba364f73735c5eb24a147e89d3 + +After the 2008 financial crisis, the US Government began borrowing heavily to pay for programs like TARP and increased unemployment benefits. The majority of this borrowing was backstopped by Foreign Creditors, who bought around 70% of the new debt issued (the Fed bought most of the rest). + +But, since 2014-2015, Foreign Creditors (Central Banks, FIs) began easing up on their purchases of Treasuries. So much so, in fact, that their holdings began to flatline, and there were no (or very low) net increases for several years. **This is surprising given the fact that the trade deficits were still increasing, so the US was still sending out more dollars into the world than it received!** + +**From 2018 to now, Federal Debt ballooned by a whopping $9T ($21T to $30T today), but foreigners only bought a measly 14% (1.3T) of it. Again, a drastic decrease from their buying patterns of prior years.** + +**So, this begs the question- if they aren’t lending the US Government, why? And where are their surplus dollars ending up?** + +**Answer: They’ve stopped lending to the US Government because of increasing worry of default risk. The US has taken on too much debt, and interest rates are too low to provide any sort of return.** + +**They still need to recycle their Dollar Surpluses effectively- one easy way to do this is to buy assets denominated in USD (equities, real estate, etc). So, they have started massively investing in American assets, as reflected by the Net International Investment Position (NIIP), shown below: (Credit to** [**Lyn Alden**](https://www.lynalden.com/)**)** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/n8ioqgvbr7i81.png?width=1364&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fd656ef42cd87cf60bf93503ef3f0c7bfb3c089 + +(The Net International Investment Position of a country measures how much foreign assets they own, minus how much of their assets that foreigners own, and the chart above shows it as a percentage of GDP. **As of this year, the United States owns $29 trillion in foreign assets, while foreigners own $42 trillion in US assets**, including US government bonds, corporate bonds, stocks, and real estate.) + +**This represents a negative 60% NIIP, and has fueled the creation of a massive stock and real estate bubble. All this massive investment has helped to boost economic growth in the past- however it also creates systemic risk.** + +**With foreigners owning so much of US assets, it means that a large proportion of wealth creation is being siphoned overseas, and doesn't recycle back into American communities. This contributes to wealth inequality globally, and in the US as well.** + +**Further, this creates the potential for a massive “rug-pull” on the American economy. If foreign investors began to lose confidence in the US economy, they could essentially begin a run on the Dollar. This would begin by massive sales of US Treasuries, but could spread to stocks and real estate, causing widespread deflation worse than 2008.** + +**The Fed would then be faced with the grim choice of either letting $42T of US assets be fire-sold into a New Great Depression, or ramp up Quantitative Easing to buy the assets on sale- untold trillions of dollars would need to be printed. This would make the current QE program look like a joke in comparison.** + +**(Again, this is a worse-case scenario; I am not asserting that it will happen, but an event like this could be one of the triggers for much worse inflation, and indeed, potential hyper-inflation.)** + +Many of these countries do not *necessarily* *want* to invest in US assets, especially Treasuries- but they are *forced to* due to the structure of the system and the fact that there just isn’t any good alternative (for now). + +**For countries that are geo-political rivals of the US, this system is an extremely potent force to help the US maintain status as an economic superpower. This was put best by Charles Duelfer, quoted in the book Mr. X Interviews Volume II (page 87):** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/oq40hooir7i81.png?width=862&format=png&auto=webp&s=32c8ffa0901f5feffff64c35c0f7eb704ca7cd69 + +**These rivals, particularly Russia, China and Iran, have been hurt the worst by US sanctions and economic warfare. They are also at the forefront in trying to displace the Dollar as WRC in order to strip the United States of it’s “**[**exorbitant privilege**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege#:~:text=The%20term%20exorbitant%20privilege%20(privil%C3%A8ge,purchased%20in%20their%20own%20currency.)**” (Per Part 1.5).** + +&#x200B; + +**See the below links for reference:** + +**8/14/14-** [**Putin says USD monopoly in global energy trade is damaging economy**](https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-putin-dollar/putin-says-russia-should-aim-to-sell-energy-in-roubles-idUKL6N0QK3BP20140814?edition-redirect=uk) + +**11/26/10-** [**Putin: It’s quite possible Russia could join EU currency zone, create currency that would eclipse the USD**](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/8163347/Putin-Russia-will-join-the-euro-one-day.html) + +**6/1/15-** [**Russian Oil Giant Gazprom begins selling oil to China in renminbi (CNY) rather than dollars**](https://www.ft.com/content/8e88d464-0870-11e5-85de-00144feabdc0) + +**6/24/15-** [**China likely to get nod for CNY gold fix soon, could compel foreign suppliers to pay in CNY**](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0P40D520150624?irpc=932) + +**9/14/17-** [**China aims for dollar-free oil trade**](https://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20170914/Business/China-aims-for-dollar-free-oil-trade) + +**10/11/17-** [**Saxo Bank: USD reserve status at risk as China begins to de-dollarize**](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/the-us-dollar-may-be-at-risk-as-the-global-reserve-currency.html) + +**10/14/17-** [**The petrodollar system is being undermined- Barrons**](https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-coming-renaissance-of-macro-investing-1507957012?mg=prod/accounts-barrons) + +**11/20/13-** [**PBOC (Central Bank of China) says no longer in China’s interest to boost FX reserves (aka buy USDs)**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-11-20/pboc-says-no-longer-in-china-s-favor-to-boost-record-reserves) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/f8gni9mur7i81.png?width=1348&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a2bbe98b274a705f2f45d2e5fe82eea18ba4cbf + +&#x200B; + +**9/12/17-** [**US Treasury Sec Mnuchin threatens banning China from “dollar system” (SWIFT)**](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-12/mnuchin-threatens-financial-sanctions-on-china-over-north-korea) + +**8/24/17-** [**Saudis may seek funding in CNY (Chinese Yuan)**](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-china/saudis-may-seek-funding-in-chinese-yuan-idUSKCN1B413R) + +**2/16/16-** [**Chinese general says contain the US by attacking its finances**](https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-general-says-contain-the-united-states-by-attacking-its-finances_1967150.html) + +**These countries aren’t alone- as we covered in the beginning, even allies such as the UK, India, Germany, and others are tired of being exploited by this system.** + +**The Exorbitant Privilege created by Triffin’s Dilemma means that these countries have to work hard to produce goods, which are swapped for Dollars (which we can print out of thin air). They then have to exchange these Dollars for US assets instead of investing in their own countries.** + +**We get cheap goods and cheap debt, fueling our overly consumerist culture- while they get more inflation and less investment in their own economies.** + +**\~\~** + +**However, the ill-effects of Triffin’s Dilemma are building up and corroding the very system which provides the US with so much economic dominance.** + +**In 2014/2015, on a Net basis, Global Central banks stopped buying US Treasuries. Essentially, they decided to stop funding growing US deficits, which means that now the US is on the hook for any new spending our government incurs. (**[**Credit to Luke Gromen for chart below**](https://fftt-llc.com/)**:)** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/l4kp2784s7i81.png?width=1132&format=png&auto=webp&s=598bcf8f89930f6533e1a2a7df8ad89c2dad92e6 + +Since there is no (or very little) new lending coming into the US from Global CBs, we had to source it ourselves. **This began with structural changes to Money Market Funds and Bank Capital Requirements (Basel III, Dodd-Frank) that FORCES MMFs and Banks to buy Treasuries for their Balance Sheets. (**[**Expansion of Government MMFs, covered in my DD on RRPs here**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oxsde3/major_signals_are_flashing_code_red_in_the_shadow/)**)** + +**The amount of funds managed by Government MMFs doubled from $0.8T in 2014 to $2.1T in 2016 and then $3.9T by 2020. These MMFs almost exclusively bought short maturity Treasuries (called T-bills), essentially becoming a new large lender for the US Government.** + +**However, there was only so much money in the money markets for this, so it would only buy a limited amount of time. Beginning in March 2020, the Federal Government began massive fiscal expenditures to prop up the economy and deal with the fallout from Covid-19.** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/8sf4h7yes7i81.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ddb3032de8819f4666057fdc40c196e826b11b5 + +***Source-*** [***Bianco Research***](https://www.biancoresearch.com/visitor-home/) + +**This time was different- since Global CBs were no longer lending en masse to the US, we had to print the difference. The Fed had to step in and backstop the Treasury. US fiscal deficits, which “hadn’t mattered” for 40 years, now began to matter!** + +**Foreign CBs barely increased their Treasury holdings, and to ensure the US Govt wouldn’t go bankrupt, the Fed had to print trillions of dollars to buy up all the new debt being issued (**[**source**](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAST)**).** + +**“That’s not exactly how the “global reserve” currency is supposed to work. It’s like a restaurant chef eating her own cooking more than her customers do. This is what other non-global-reserve countries look like. Within one year, the Fed went from owning half as much Treasuries as foreign central banks combined, to more than them combined.”- Lyn Alden** + +**In 2008, when the Fed did this, the money had stayed in the banking system due to the nature of QE (covered in Part 3.5). However, now it was the US Government and indeed the entire US economy that needed to be bailed out, so that is where the dollars had to flow.** + +**This led to a massive influx of dollars into the real economy, and thus the recipe for a large surge in inflation in the coming years. So far, it looks like we are seeing this play out in real time, as January 2022 CPI came in at a blazing 7.5%!** + +**With fiscal deficits running at** [**$2.8T in 2021**](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/deficit-tracker/#:~:text=The%20federal%20government%20ran%20a%20deficit%20of%20%242.8%20trillion%20in,revenue%20increases%20outpacing%20expenditure%20growth.)**, and foreign CBs only financing 14% of it, that means there is $2.4T of Treasuries that need to be bought- the Fed will likely have to print all of it.** + +**Thus, the Fed will likely have to print around $2.4T, every year, for the foreseeable future. Inflationary feedback loops, discussed in Parts 4.0 and 4.1, will kick in, and these figures will grow. The Fed will have to print more and more just to keep the US Govt afloat.** + +**All the borrowing of the past is coming back to bite.** [**Officially, just a few weeks ago, US Debt hit $30 Trillion**](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/01/us/politics/national-debt-30-trillion.html)**! This doesn't include the $5T of liabilities that the US Government owes to itself or the** [**staggering $162 Trillion in unfunded liabilities**](https://alec.org/article/americas-national-debt-a-rendezvous-with-reality/)**!** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/3gab667ns7i81.png?width=1104&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e455cc11f1605d1a26ca60f0b9bb272d671aaf4 + +&#x200B; + +(Unfunded liabilities refers to payments that the US has promised to make, such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, pensions. Technically, this isn’t classified as debt, but it is a promise from the US Govt to give future $$- where will this money come from?) + +**At $30 Trillion, a 1% increase in interest rates means an additional $300B in interest payments annually that must be paid. Who will lend the Treasury this money as the Gov’t continues to dig its own grave, and inflation rates rise above 7%?** + +**Answer: The Lender of Last Resort- the Fed** + +**It is no surprise therefore that cognizant leaders in foreign countries see the writing on the wall and have begun to pull support for USD. Would you want your countries' currency being invested in a “global reserve asset” that is losing 7.5% of its value (more like 15%) every year, and is projected to lose even more as the debt payments come due?** + +**A 2017 paper published by the Bank of International Settlements called “**[**Triffin: Dilemma or myth?**](https://www.bis.org/publ/work684.pdf)**” restates the core issue perfectly (summarized):** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/p9f4fr3us7i81.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=938b02d436472dc94ad6de3943d2938c67e2ddea + +**The elites understand this issue perfectly- but the reason the system did so well for so long is that the US debt levels were manageable, and there were structural advantages the US had that helped it immensely (deep and liquid bond + stock markets, large population, large % of global trade)** + +**But they also understand that Triffin’s Dilemma is the final nail in the coffin- it has meant that every country has lasted as WRC holder for an average of only 80 years!** + +**To put it another way, the host country (US) has to decide to either not print $$ and import goods, which halts global trade (not enough $$ to settle trade)** + +**OR** + +**It has to decide to run current account deficits (to keep the global economy running) at the expense of burying itself in debt, eventually having to print their way out (which will kill the USD as WRC holder).** + +**This has happened before to Portugal, Spain, Britain- all colonial empires, who saw their might stripped from them as they devalued their currency and lost economic hegemony.** + +**I noted this to a colleague-** + +**“This system also hands China a nuclear option- they now have a massive hoard of over $1T of Treasuries. They have their finger on the button. If they dump them all, they would bring on Armageddon in the bond markets, and force the Fed to print another Trillion or so, perhaps scaring other countries to start dumping their bonds, which would force the Fed to print Trillions more. It would be all out economic warfare.”** + +**He rebutted- “The Chinese wouldn’t do that. It would harm their own economy, that would be tantamount to shooting themselves in the foot”.** + +**I replied- “But their foot is placed against our head”** + +&#x200B; + +# Smooth Brain Overview + +1. Triffin’s Dilemma creates Artificial Demand for USD, propping up value +2. US exports Inflation to poorer countries +3. Move of Manufacturing Base from Importers (US) to Exporters (China) +4. This creates wage deflation in US- stagnant wages for US workers +5. Massive build up of Debt in WRC holder (US) +6. Build up of dollars in overseas bank accounts (Eurodollars) +7. Increasing levels of debt and inequality in WRC (US) as corporate profits soar and wages flatline +8. Eventually, the manufacturing base is gone, debt levels are too high, which forces the US to print $$. +9. This causes global inflation, and foreign countries don’t like seeing their hard earned Yen or Pounds being transferred into a currency being printed to oblivion. They stop lending to the US. +10. The Fed now has to print even MORE $$ to keep the US Govt afloat. +11. Inflation problem gets worse. #9 and #10 Repeat in a vicious cycle. +12. Change of WRC, which causes depression in holder (Britain in late 1920s) + +&#x200B; + +# Conclusion + +Most Americans today are unaware of the great benefits and might bestowed upon them due to the US being the holder of a WRC. Drunk with power, Presidents from Nixon to Obama have started and continued large scale “forever wars” in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen. + +**Post Bretton Woods, the US has become an Empire, and has essentially created financial colonies in most of the Third World- by forcing them to use US dollars, these countries subordinate their economies to support the value of the dollar, allowing the US to borrow and spend recklessly without immediate consequence.** + +**Further, by using USDs, these countries’ banks are routed through the US banking system and are thus subject to US Foreign policy, even policies that are not supported by the United Nations. The US can essentially extend its jurisdiction over much of the global economy, and cut off trade for those countries who protest.** + +**But this power comes with a cost- by exporting jobs, wages deflate across the US and wealth inequality worsens. Political polarization quickly follows, along with the destabilization and corruption of Institutions.** + +**The drums of Economic Warfare have begun to beat. China and Russia are bristling for conflict. Can the United States survive the onslaught?** + +**The Endgame Approaches. No Empire lasts forever.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# BUY, HODL, BUCKLE UP. + +# >>>>>>>TO BE CONTINUED >>>>>>> PART FOUR “AT WORLD’S END” + +**(Adding this to clear up FUD- My argument is for hyperinflation to begin in a few years- this is a years- long PROCESS, and will take a long time to play out. It won't happen tomorrow, but we are in the same situation as Germany after WW1. BUY AND HOLD)** + +*Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.* + +\*If you would like to learn more, check out my recommended reading list [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nSw9odLoExaq0oEBqIHrCK1Xj5KfyjBkGQZ93LTh34g/edit?usp=sharing). This is a dummy google account, so feel free to share with friends- none of my personal information is attached. You can also check out a Google docs version of my[ Endgame Series here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1552Gu7F2cJV5Bgw93ZGgCONXeenPdjKBbhbUs6shg6s/edit?usp=sharing). + +&#x200B; + +# You can follow me on Twitter u/peruvian_bull. I also have a Medium account [here](https://medium.com/@peruvianbull) + +All other accounts are impersonators/scam accounts. I will never ask for personal information, nor solicit or offer financial advice. +I recall in the past TDDI would classify you as a President's Account client if you had household accounts of $1M with them or had paid a certain amount of commissions per quarter. So, if someone doesn't do 150+ trades per quarter yet has over $1M in AUM and pays $4000/yr in commissions, are they eligible for some kind of commission discount? Is there any point in asking TD for a fee break or better to just move all accounts to IB or National Bank to save 90%+ in commissions ? + + + +I was eating dinner with my family when a private number called me. +It was a customer service manager from Etoro. + +He was very polite, he was very patient with me and he was very understanding of why I am requesting what I am requesting. + +Later in the evening he followed up with an Email, I’m going to leave it in the comments. + +The phone call was much the same of my lengthy email chain. +He made it clear he was calling to apologise for the incorrect information given to me from the support team - they can not provide a letter showing the shares they have purchased on my behalf. The chat help lady had literally stated that they will do this. + +We spoke about Etoro not being able to provide proof of ownership and he confirmed I can not transfer out. His thoughts on the situation were for me to close my position and then move to another broker, I responded by explaining that makes me feel more so that Etoro does not have my shares registered in the first place. +I am not closing my positions. +I questioned what’s stopping them from transferring my shares? I’d be happy to pay the buy/sell difference if there is one. And then they have my shares and move them out. It all works the same. + +This can’t be done he said. And so we went around in circles some more. + +He also said that Etoro are doing their best to keep their customers happy when it comes to GameStop stock and it’s situation. They pushed to make sure their customers could all vote. +I agreed that was really cool of them. As I think about that while I’m writing this now, wouldn’t that provide some tiny evidence that they hold GME shares?? … Hmmmm + +I asked what reasons Etoro would ever have to step in and close trades, to sum it up it seems his answer was it wouldn’t be a decision Etoro would make but more so if the exchange made a decision, which would affect all brokers. + +I explained how Etoro closed my positions in January, I said I woke up one morning and my positions were closed and this was apparently because of a ‘glitch’… I said if that had have been tens of thousands of dollars I’d have been really upset. So in January I actually had to buy back in. +I explained that this, plus Etoro not providing any evidence of registered shares gives me enough reason to lose trust. + +He could only offer his understanding. + +I also explained how I believe there is evidence that brokers are struggling to locate shares for customers who have opted to transfer out. I said it is highly possible certain brokers are taking retail investors money and not purchasing stock at all.. + +Long ass story short.. +I think this phone call was initially made to try and close my case, but I made it clear that I am continuing with my open case with the Australian Financial Complaints Authority. +He said I have every right to continue with it even though he doesn’t believe it will get me what I am after. +At the end of the day, Etoro have given me their word that they have registered shares for me. And this simply isn’t enough for me. + +I hope I can to push hard with AFCA. +I am still waiting to hear back from them, and my case is still open with Etoro as it gets pushed up again through management. I am going to receive another phone call. + +Also quick note from my last post, everyone that PM’d me with questions I apologize I haven’t had time to answer. I’ll do my best to reply. And everyone that responded with more helpful tips, thanks so much for every bit of input. + +[Link to original post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q7w0xl/i_have_made_a_formal_complaint_to_australian/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) +After todays FCC announcement of TikTok and their recommendations of banning it from stores, a lot of information regarding what they collect from users came to surface. + +It’s even worse than I imagined. + +**TikTok is said to collect “everything”, from search and browsing histories; keystroke patterns; biometric identifiers—including faceprints, something that might be used in “unrelated facial recognition technology”, and voiceprints—location data; draft messages; metadata; and data stored on the clipboard, including text, images, and videos.** + +Im way too old and unattractive to be fiddling with TikTok but if any of you is using it, I highly recommend that you move your assets to new wallet(s) as the possibility of TikTok acquiring your seed-phrase and a ton of other personal data is very high. + + +Be safe guys and girls. +We’ve got some fresh DD and its really exciting. For those of you living under a rock, catch up here: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pgp4ed/gamestop\_is\_exposing\_the\_biggest\_financial\_crime/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pgp4ed/gamestop_is_exposing_the_biggest_financial_crime/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pguixz/buy\_buttons\_being\_turned\_off\_anyone\_else/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pguixz/buy_buttons_being_turned_off_anyone_else/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np33hr/amazon\_bain\_capital\_and\_citadel\_bust\_out\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np33hr/amazon_bain_capital_and_citadel_bust_out_the/) + +Counterpoint to this sticky: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ph2z2q/the\_whole\_amazon\_jeff\_sears\_blockbuster\_tsunami/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ph2z2q/the_whole_amazon_jeff_sears_blockbuster_tsunami/) + +I understand why we are seeing this increasing trend of Sears/Blockbuster/Amazon posts and honestly I can’t blame you. Here is the issue however. The vast majority of these are super low effort screenshots like “WUT DOING SEARS?” with pictures of the same tickers. + +Understand that not only is this creating a snowball effect but its completely clogging the forum and you are actively preventing potentially valuable content from reaching the Apes. We are here to talk about GME and it seems like these stocks could indeed be related. We are here because some wrinkly apes have spent tons of time researching and connecting dots. I know you just want to participate and do your part but its creating a major problem. Not only are most of these posts blatantly violating the rules but every single shitpost like this prevents good posts from rising. + +If you are going to put effort in and are furthering the conversation, FANTASTIC! If you are just hopping on a trend for that sweet karma you are NOT helping. We are going to be very aggressive for a while in our moderation until this is under control. Please make room for the DD writers and high effort posters. Please report posts that are clogging the forum. Please understand we don’t want to have to do this but right now there is no other option. + +I know i’m gonna get heat for this and a lot of people are gonna complain. We aren’t taking punitive action against the majority of posters. We get that you are just having fun but know if you circumvent these removals, if you literally spam or if you are encouraging people to buy into other “squeezes” you are gonna catch a ban. I honestly believe this is mostly organic. We are not trying to stifle discussion we are trying to make room for constructive discussion. Please follow the rules and play nice apes. + + +EDIT: Thank you everyone for the great feedback on this. We have some creative solutions we are working on this weekend and will hopefully update you all soon. +I've heard the rule of thumb about your rent should be no more than 30% of your monthly take home. + +I was wondering about vehicle purchase (or lease), is there a good rule of thumb maybe expressed as if you make $x take home annually, you should spend no more than some percentage of that x as the total vehicle cost. And your monthly payment with interest should be no more than some percentage of your net monthly take home. + +Any advice is appreciated, thank you! +My parents sold one of their investment properties and after paying some bills, expenses, and a new car they needed and deserved, they’re left with $120k. + +It’s not life changing money but it’s more than they ever had in the bank. My dad has never been good with money, but buying this property was the smartest thing he did. + +Now he just wants to make sure there’s enough to last him and my mom through to the rest of their lives and hopefully have something left for us (my sister and I). My dad is 78 and my mom is in her late 60s. + +Currently they get about $1500 a month through SSI, no mortgage obligation, let’s say $200-$400 in bills and insurance max, no car note. + +Is there anything you all recommend in this scenario? an index fund or specific investing strategy? Preferably something low risk, maybe dividends? Do I invest in blue chips? + +If we find the right one, do we put 75% in there and simply draw enough for a few months needs, let it sit until we repeat? Or only put in half? + +I personally made a lot in the stock market this past year and my dad wants me to manage their money. It’s a lot of responsibility to take but I’m willing to do it. I do however understand we’re in a bull run and the past few weeks have been incredible buying opportunities for me personally, but not sure if I’d like to invest my parents money at a time like now. + +Again, the goal is to grow their money responsibly during their lifetime, while still being easily accessible, and hopes their would be enough for my sister and I. + +Any guidance or suggestions is welcomed. Thank you. +Happy new year! + +This week's biggest gainer: XRP (+108%) + +This week's biggest loser: NXT (-58%) + +Portfolio gain this week: +4% + +[Week 20 Results](http://blog.mclain.ca/buy-and-hold-31-cryptocurrencies-for-365-days-week-20/) + + +See the rules for the experiment [here](http://blog.mclain.ca/31-crypto-currencies-week-1/). +I have bad credit, but I’m in the process of rebuilding it. Adding accounts & diversifying those accounts is good for having better credit, right? + +So, is it possible to get a loan from a bank for the amount of the car, but then also open up an account with them & deposit that same amount & set up auto-pay? That way it shows up on my credit report that I'm paying on time for a few months. + +Is this possible? Are there better alternatives? $3,500 is a good chunk of change for me right now, but I need a car soon. I just want to do it the smartest way possible to help myself out. +Payday loans really fucked me up all those years + +But for the first time i am debt free now i can manage to pay rent on time, buy enough food. + +Happy i got a new reliable car + +Really looking foward to 2020 +Fellow shareholders, + +I have been advised of the date of a hearing to discuss my Motion to Expedite and scheduling. + +*December 21, 2021* + +My understanding is that the facts material to the case won't be discussed at this hearing. That will come at the hearing following this hearing. + +The 12/9 date will probably not be a thing unless GameStop fails to respond to my original summons. I haven't heard anything regarding that. + +Again, my case is being heard at the Delaware Court of Chancery by Master Selina E. Molina and my case number is 2021-0993-SEM. + +**JASON FUCKING WATER FALL FAQ** + +**Who are you?** + +I am a [100% direct-registered asshole](https://imgur.com/a/i0mKIpf) who quests ongoingly to contact GameStop Investor Relations. + +**Why did you sue GameStop?** + +Because they didn't respond when I asked nicely every day, and after six weeks or so, an alternative modality seemed to be indicated. + +**What information do you want?** + +1) Information contained in the Shareholder Ledger + +2) Information relating to The Cheng Discrepancy + +**What is the Shareholder Ledger?** + +A list of all institutions and individuals holding GME. + +**Do you think the Shareholder Ledger contains evidence that the float is oversold?** + +Maybe, maybe not. Supposing that the float is oversold, the Shareholder Ledger may contain only the identities of registered holders, rather than beneficial holders. In that case, evidence of rehypothecation may not be acquisible by suing GameStop. + +**Will you share the Shareholder Ledger if you get it?** + +I will fight to share whatever I can without compromising shareholders' personal information. + +**What makes you think you can get the Shareholder Ledger by suing for it?** + +Because Delaware law says so, specifically [Delaware Code Title 8 Section 220](https://codes.findlaw.com/de/title-8-corporations/de-code-sect-8-220.html). I have followed the steps for acquiring the Shareholder Ledger specified in paragraphs (b) and (c). + +**What is The Cheng Discrepancy?** + +OK, so you know how [we all voted on 6/9 to install RC and his buddies to the BOD](https://news.gamestop.com/node/18956/html)? There were eight total elections that day. Seven of the elections show a vote total of 55,541,279. The Larry Cheng election, however, shows a vote total of 55,541,280. + +**So what?** + +So the elections should all display the same amount of votes, because it is impossible for someone to have voted in the Larry Cheng election without having been counted as an abstention in the other seven elections. The vote totals from all eight elections should match. That they don't match gives me a credible basis to suspect that mismanagement, wrongdoing, or waste may have occurred with regard to the collection, tabulation, reconciliation, or reporting of the votes.  + +**Credible basis?** + +The credible basis standard means I don't have to prove that wrongdoing occurred, or even show that wrongdoing probably happened or had a good chance of happening. All I have to show is that mismanagement, wrongdoing, or waste MAY HAVE OCCURRED.  + +Onward and upward. + +In the disclaimer, I made a clarifying change in the sentence about beneficial shareholders. + +EDIT: Finally, if you are bored and looking for something to do, Bank of America DD badass u/gfountyyc [has a job for you](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r1iiso/cftc_foia_requesti_need_some_help_my_dudes/). + +*Disclaimer: My name is JASON FUCKING WATER FALL. I'm not subject to an NDA or any kind of equivalent gag order regarding issues within GME's milieu. I haven't received information indicating an unreconciled number of ballots or votes cast in GameStop's 6/9 shareholder election exceeded the number of outstanding shares. I haven't received information indicating GameStop has been legally prevented from taking action projected to cause a systemic market event. I haven't received information indicating that the number of shares held by beneficial GameStop shareholders exceeds the number of outstanding shares. Epstein didn't kill himself and I won't either. I once touched Owen Hart's sweaty bicep as he walked out with Jim Neidhart at a house show. I have never met or knowingly spoken to Ryan Cohen, Matt Furlong, Michael Recupero, Mark Robinson, Tess Halbrooks, Greg Marose, Deep Fucking Value, Ken Griffin, Vlad Tenev, Steven Cohen, Maxine Waters, Elon Musk, Amber Ruffin, PFTCommenter, or Ariana Grande.* +>US Retail Sales Advance (M/M) May: 17.7% (exp 8.4%; prev -16.4%) + +https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-6-16-2020-11592280024 + +>Giving low doses of the generic steroid drug dexamethasone to patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 reduced death rates by around a third among those with the most severe cases of infection, trial data showed on Tuesday. + +>The results, described as a “major breakthrough” by scientists leading the UK-led clinical trial known as RECOVERY, suggest the drug should immediately become standard care in patients treated in hospital with the pandemic disease, the researchers said. + + +https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-steroid/steroid-dexamethasone-reduces-deaths-among-patients-with-severe-covid-19-trial-shows-idUSKBN23N1VP +My sibling asked me to cosign a mortgage loan to refinance the soon to be ex-spouse off of the matrimonial house. + +I suggested that instead of co-signing the loan I could loan the money and be the bank/mortgage. + +Sibling generally agrees, so we plan to get a lawyer and do it up proper, legal note, lien on property, use a title/closing company to pay off old mortgage and record new lien etc. + +Here's my question for you all: + +I've looked at NationalFamilyMortgage ("NFM") and I might use them - they charge \~$1k to setup the loan and $15/month to service the loan. + +When I colloquially use the term "service the loan" I mean collect the monthly mortgage, principle, property insurance, tax amount; escrow property insurance and tax; keep the records, produce end of year records, and pay the insurance and tax. + +Do you all know of a service (other than NFM) that will service a private loan like this? + +Thanks! +You spent day and night reading endless DD and memes. + +You’ve watched hours of AMAs. + +You put in paycheck after paycheck trusting that complete strangers on the web would do the same. + +You didn’t daytrade when you could have made hundreds or thousands or millions. + +You believed in and invested even though you’ve never done anything like this in your life. + +A lot of you, including myself, are first-time investors in real stock beyond boring mutual funds. + +And then? + +You traveled from WSB to GME to Superstonk. + +You went through countless campaigns of FUD. + +You didn’t jump ship for other pumped stocks. + +The media has been against you. + +Family and friends and random strangers have called you insane. + +A crazy conspiracy theorist + +“Idiot” + +“Dumb money” + +An inexperienced individual that should leave investing to those who know how to invest. + +And guess what? + +They’re wrong. They were always wrong. Be it that they were bought by the system or fooled by the system, they’re about to realize regret for not jumping on the same ship you’re sailing. + +And you’re gonna change the world for the better. + +You’re going to write the history books as the perhaps the single most powerful event in which the masses conquer the criminal overlords at their own game. + +You’re going to make life better for your family and home. + +You’re going to smile as you put your sweet tendies to charity, healthier planet, and a more fair society. + +You’re going to have ability to choose things you’ve never had to choose before. + +And you know what? I believe in you to make the right choices. You’ve already proven you can. + +Enjoy the ride, apes. This hasn’t been a quick buck or an easy journey, but it most certainly is an exciting one. + +See you in another galaxy 🙌💎🦍🚀🌌 +My father has just gone into a nursing home and I need to sell his house to pay fully-refundable deposit plus daily fees. He is 95yo and I expect (hope) he will enjoy many years there. + +I don't have the exact figures, but we're currently paying approximately $150 a day. By adding $420k frd the daily fees are reduced to approximately $100. + +The house has been valued at $920k. + +I need to invest the remainder in a way that is safe, and so that the daily payments can be withdrawn on a regular basis. + +Any advice and suggestions will be gratefully received. + +EDIT: thanks to everyone for your advice. I've decided to see a financial adviser in a couple of weeks. Your comments have given me some direction and insight into some options I hadn't previously considered. Thanks again. +Disclaimer: I'm not a vegan. + +A few examples of what I mean with the title. + +"You still use banks? I unbanked myself." = "You still eat meat? I'm vegan." + +"Bank refuses to process my payment to a crypto exchange." = "Why doesn't this restaurant offer any vegan options?" + +"Why is X coin price not going up, while Y coin is pumping for no reason." = "Shouldn't the increased popularity of almond milk and oat milk have caused the price of soy milk to go down, not up?" (Literally on the front page of the vegan sub. I'm dying). + +2nd Disclaimer: Being invested in crypto nor eating a vegan diet is bad, pushing the idea everywhere is. + +But think about it. With families coming together over the holidays. Do you want to be the family member pushing his ideas to anyone there? Is it so hard to just be normal for a day or two? + +Even if you think you are helping, if someone is not interested, understand it. It's not for everyone, yet. + +**TL;DR: Do what you want, but don't push your ideas to everyone around.** + +Happy holidays everyone. + +Edit: As a comment by [**chriswuz**](https://www.reddit.com/user/chriswuz/) pointed out: + +"I think the post is about that phase where we discover new ways in life and we forget about friends and family just talking about that. It really sucks to be around someone only talking about a single subject and trying to turn everybody to it." -This, and it goes for any topic. +They've almost doubled the health insurance prices without any notice and I am wary of their very shady renewal tactics like multiple employees calling and insisting that I renew from link they give me. Also they are sending messages asking for automaticaly generated OTPs. I have never used the policy in 12 years yet. + + + +For they money they are charging, there are others who are providing double coverage. So I am looking for advice. Is HDFC Ergo worth the high price and shady behaviour ? Any recommendations for alternatives ? +I remember questions in this sub asking about Minance's fancy-looking models, and (edit) ~~my~~ many responses dissuading such flings. They started 'defaulting' some months ago. ET ran good articles on this, but they were paywalled inside ET Prime. + +SEBI's actions have been taken on 'smaller' issues that flouted the IA norms. But they have given a pretty stiff penalty. This is actually a good precedent. There are many well-known situations where notorious wrong-doers have been caught for smaller offences which are easier to prove. + +One source: [https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/sebi-bans-bengaluru-based-minance-and-its-founder-anurag-bhatia-capital-markets-136058](https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/sebi-bans-bengaluru-based-minance-and-its-founder-anurag-bhatia-capital-markets-136058) + +Edit for the missing disclaimer: I am an Investment Advisor too, and have faced the repercussions of misdeeds by IAs like Minance. SEBI has stiffened the rules significantly for these intermediaries. +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-com-bans-foreign-sales-002006262.html + +(Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc said it has banned foreign sales of seeds in the United States after thousands of Americans received unsolicited packages of seeds in their mailboxes, mostly postmarked from China. + +"Moving forward, we are only permitting the sale of seeds by sellers who are based in the U.S.," Amazon said in an emailed statement on Saturday. +It has come to my attention that some people think SHIB coins cannot reach a USD valuation of $1.00, but let me assure you that this is *simply not true!* + +A recent post explained that, for SHIB to reach $1.00, it would require a market cap of 558 *trillion* USD, about 500x the market cap of BTC. By comparison, as of 2021 the total wealth on earth is [431 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwilliams1/2021/06/10/worlds-wealth-hits-half-a-quadrillion-dollars/?sh=2cf9123b309d) USD. + +However, a 558 trillion USD market cap does not require 558 trillion USD worth of purchases. A [recent study](https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/revealed-how-much-money-it-takes-to-move-bitcoins-price-by-1) by Bank of America found that 100 million USD could move BTC's trillion-dollar market cap by 1% - therefore, only 10 billion USD (1% of BTC's current market cap) would be needed to double BTC's market cap. + +SHIB would only require 15 such doublings to reach a market cap over 500 trillion USD, requiring approximately 10 trillion USD in liquidity to do so. So, all we need is 10 trillion dollars - a perfectly reasonable amount of cash! + +**So the question is, how do we get 10 trillion dollars?** + +No problem, let me introduce you to my friend, [1998-KU2](https://www.asterank.com/#152679). 1998-KU2 is a 4.7km-wide asteroid mainly comprised of [nickel, iron, and cobalt](https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2018/03/aa32086-17/aa32086-17.html). 1998-KU2's component minerals have an estimated value of 80 trillion USD! + +[Here he is, circled in red.](https://preview.redd.it/yc2xy3tc21781.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=146247e2624d3e13e52e1ceeadb33e09430f7a0f) + +However, getting up there and mining those rare minerals won't be cheap - we'll need a rocket, mining equipment, a return vehicle, and some other seriously advanced technology. The estimated cost of all this is 70 trillion USD, leaving us with a healthy 10 trillion USD profit in cold, hard cash! + +So all we need to do is go down to our local bank, get a small loan of 70 trillion dollars, build our rocket, swing by 1998-KU2, mine some minerals, return to Earth, sell the minerals for 80 trillion USD, repay our loan, place a SHIB buy order for 10 trillion USD, **and sit back and watch SHIB go to $1.00!** + +Who'd have thought that, to go to the moon, you'd need to go to the asteroid belt first? +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Original Post https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/gveon3/ive_lost_240k_on_luckin_coffee_all_my_life/ + +Different user as StopFapForever was not working IRL. Plus my flair now checks out. + +Listen fuckin idiots. I've holded LKNCY since it went from 48 to 2 at - 97%. + +I never fuckin sold and I'm still in balls deep. Luckly is back to 12-13 and slowly recovering. + +If I holded all my net worth for so long, YOU CAN FUCKIN HOLD A - 40% FOR A DAY OR EVEN A WEEK. + +Don't be pussy paper hand small dick. I'm again balls deep in BB since last monday (only 30k which is what I have). I'll never fuckin sell. + +Today I've putted 5k on GME just cause I fuckin love you and I'm with you all along. Just for the cause. I prefer to lose 5k on GME than spending them in videogames or shit like that. + +I'm in Europe and cant sleep and fuck my GF. Luckly her boyfriend is helping her out. I've been awake all night to check twitter, premarket, aoc steam on twitch. + +I'm with you all the way long. Ride or die. + +'' There will be a day when all of us will sell and make tendies into valhalla Elon Mars city. But NOT TODAY. Today we fuckin stand together and fight for whats right'' + +Fuck you Citron. Fuck you Melvin. Fuck you Etoro. Fuck you Hedge fund. + +We are coming from all over the world to fuck you. + +Keeo HOLD and GME BB TO THE FUCKIN GALAXY AND BEYOND 🚀🚀🚀🚀 +This has lots of images and this sub doesn't allow me to post them. So please go the the link (highly recommended): [https://pradyuprasad.wordpress.com/2019/11/26/\_\_trashed/](https://pradyuprasad.wordpress.com/2019/11/26/__trashed/) + +Text only (click on link above if you want a nicer experience): + +>[*India is the only country trying to become a global economic power with an uneducated and unhealthy labour force*](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2015/11/19/india-is-the-only-country-in-the-world-trying-to-become-a-global-economic-power-with-an-uneducated-and-unhealthy-labour-force-amartya-sen/) +> +>\- ***Amartya Sen*** + +In the [previous part](https://pradyuprasad.wordpress.com/2019/11/25/the-bear-case-on-india-part-1/) I had shown that the demographic dividend is actually a demographic dud. We will have no “dividend” if half the country does not participate in the workforce. But what happens to those enter the workforce? Are they skilled enough? And will they get jobs? I’ll answer these questions in this post. I am going to argue that the Indian workforce has a large skill problem with university degrees being close to worthless, and a rapidly growing share of the educated unemployed. + +Such is the state of education in India today. We have two distinct phenomena: a group of you Indians, who will grow up know know how to do basic arithmetic, along with an educated group who cannot find jobs. + +See image here: [https://imgur.com/a/Db6cUQu](https://imgur.com/a/Db6cUQu) + +This graph shows unemployment rates by education level in India. The striking part of this graph is that graduates has an unemployment rate of around 15% right now, while those with no education have unemployment rates of close to zero. This shows the main challenge in India: we have low quality graduates and this will make the demographic dividend ([which isn’t all that great as shown in the previous post](https://pradyuprasad.wordpress.com/2019/11/25/the-bear-case-on-india-part-1/)), less effective and unlikely to drive economic growth at all. In fact we will be seeing the exact opposite of the conventional prediction that India’s demographic dividend is its greatest benefit. + +The exact opposite is happening. Millions of “educated” Indians (though fewer than expected by the UN) will enter the workforce with degrees of poor quality, face unemployment or at best underemployment. + +**How we got here- The abysmal state of primary education** + +See image: [https://imgur.com/cQp9EMf](https://imgur.com/cQp9EMf) + +ASER reports that only 43% of 14 year olds in India could divide in 2018. This was 44% in 2017, similar in 2016 and has been declining since the peak of 75% in 2006. What is happening is India is facing the results of decades of underinvestment in education. The World Bank estimates that the average Indian gets only 5 years of education adjusted for learning. In comparison the average Chinese gets 9.7, Brazilian gets 7.6, Russian gets 11.9, American gets 11.1, British gets 11.5 and South Africa is lower at 5.1. Clearly if we want to be in likes of China, the US or the UK, we have to get the primary education system in order. India has the highest ambition to education ratio in that list. + +For a country that is supposed to be the next economic superpower, India is doing an extremely poor job at educating its young minds. This isn’t a one off that happens at one level. The rot in the education system is reducing GDP growth in the long run. + +**Secondary education has its problems too** + +Just like their younger siblings in the primary education system, secondary students have poor learning outcomes. In the latest National Achievement Survey the NCERT found that in only 6 educational boards (out of 36) more than 20% of students could pass a basic mathematics test. Those 6 were the CBSE a central government curriculum, the ICSE a curriculum made by the Council for Secondary Education in India, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Odisha, and Rajasthan. Let that sink in for a moment. In only 6 education boards out of 36, more than 20% of students could pass a mathematics test for their age level (class 10/15 years old). How can India become an economic superpower when its human capital formation is so poor? **How can a country where the majority of students cannot do basic math become a developed country?** + +See image: [https://imgur.com/5qzKaAr](https://imgur.com/5qzKaAr) + +**The rot spreads to the tertiary level** + +The thesis of most India Growth Story enthusiasts is that there are many smart people who will get jobs, and contribute to society. It is evident that few of the people who will enter the job market are skilled given that \~56% of 14 years olds in India could not divide in 2018, and the majority of 15 year olds (87%) could not pass a math test for their grade level. India do not have a skilled workforce. To make things far far worse, tertiary institutions are doing a poor job of moving the workforce from unskilled to skilled. The blame does not fall on them though. Given the input quality they can be cut some slack. + +But even with what they have, they are doing very poorly. A [survey](https://www.aspiringminds.com/thankyou/?url=2602) by the consulting firm AspiringMinds revealed that only 3.84% of engineers can write compilable code, only 36% of them do an internship and only 7% of them do more than one internship. Even for jobs that require low skills compared to the others like a BPO associate 60% of students are unqualified. For a country that has a mission of Digital India, these are pathetic statistics. Colleges emphasize theoretical skills over practical ones, are not incentivized on quantifiable learning outcomes like jobs and incomes and therefore are close to useless in skilling the country + +**Conclusion** + +The India Growth Story is falling apart job by job, step by step. While economists predict a rebound in FY20, don’t let that fool you that long term GDP growth in the country is severely constrained by these factors. + +All the data that is not linked in the post is here: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AZbEyeeKN39C7INkiD9WEbBhpGshCReTCzfiMx0GTyY/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AZbEyeeKN39C7INkiD9WEbBhpGshCReTCzfiMx0GTyY/edit?usp=sharing) +How do you go about investing in SGBs? I am planning to buy SGBs but I have few questions and would like to kbow what this sub thinks about this. + +Question is specific to investing through primary market and not secondary market (Edit: I changed my mind on secondary markets as I was not completely aware about the facts, please give your views on buying from secondary markets too). + + +1. Do you have a fixed asset allocation percentage for SGBs? + + +2. If yes, how much and how do you plan for it? + + +Let us say your asset allocation calculation comes out as 5k per month for SGBs. How do you invest this 5k as SGB tranches are not released every month? Do you keep this 5k (per month) in savings bank till a subscription period comes up and then buy SGBs? Or do you follow any other way? + + +3. Finally the most important question for me: Do you invest in every tranche to average out the cost (like SIP)? + + +This specific question because SGB bought at higher price gives you higher interest but will (not always but likely) give you lesser capital appreciation (in percentages). + + + +Please discuss, any inputs will help. +I backed up into my family member's vehicle this weekend and destroyed my side view mirror (with camera). No damage to the other vehicle. I called a few places to get quotes and they were all around $700-900. Since my deductible is $500, I was pretty certain I wouldn't file a claim, but I wanted to see my options. I called my insurance just to see what was covered and what they would offer with the thought that I didn't necessarily have to file the claim. After speaking with them about the accident, they told me that even if I chose not to use the coverage, my premium still might increase since I reported the accident. + +Sucks. I should have researched more before I called. Just posting this so somebody might not make the same mistake. +Apologies if this topic has been talked about recently. + +What does everyone think about the current state of the housing market in our country? I've been listening to these moronic real estate agents telling everyone to buy, buy, buy without a care in the world it seems. Apparently, people are listening - everyone I know personally is buying a house right now, sometimes one that they can't afford. Furthermore, I've read of some serious predatory lending practices happening. Kinda reminds me of 2008/09. + +I'm well aware that Canada has an extremely better financial system than the United States but I am not well versed in real estate/the housing market and prefer the oil and gas sector (as noted by my username). Is this housing market sustainable or is a crash coming? I am totally puzzled as to why people would buy homes at all-time high prices and pay an astronomical amount above the list price. + +Thanks. +I’m currently searching for a way to not be able to touch my paycheck at all from Friday to Friday. Or longer. It can’t be anything that can be easily transferred. I have used a Ksafe in the past and eventually broke into them for various reasons. I’ve been looking into a metal option but those are way beyond my budget right now and I’m wondering there might be a better system. Does anyone have any suggestions? +Hi I'm 22, and after college I'll be 23. + + I will have about 40-50k in student loan debt as a computer science major. + +I want to move out of my parents house as soon as possible, but I want to be financially smart about it too. + +I figure if I stay with my parents 1 year after graduating (unless I get a really good job opportunity out of the area I live in) and either pay off my student loan debt (and car loan which is only like 2k) or I save up some amount of money to put a downpayment on a house for myself. + +In my area, a house that I would want will cost approx 200k-300k in this current market, obviously that will change by the time I find a house (hopefully for the better) + +Not sure which one is more financially optimal. I want to move out quickly, however I dont want to be financially stressed out for a long time and want to live comfortable. + +Any advice or thoughts about what I should do? (I dont want to live with my parents for more than like 1 year aftet college if I can help it. I want my independence and freedom) +Happy Memorial Day! I wanted to share research on dividend ETFs pertaining to yield vs. growth. This is my first post to this subreddit so please go easy on me. I am just sharing this information for discussion purposes and not making any recommendations. Everything is my own opinion. My goal is to learn from discussion so I can be a better investor. + +Note: I can't seem to post images so I linked them as references below. + +I have been looking to add a small portion of my portfolio as income-generating and slowly reinvest dividends over time. I have seen a lot of recommendations on other posts and picked some popular ones to analyze which include SCHD, VYM, PEY, JEPI, NUSI, QYLD, DIVO, SPHD. Since JEPI was created not too long ago (post-COVID), I used JEPAX which is very similar and has a longer history dating back to 2019. Again, everyone’s situation is different and the use of these ETFs (especially covered call ETFs), I believe, is particular to one’s situation and need for it. + +I tabulated these funds (see link below) and organized them in ascending order of dividend yield. The red bars show the relative magnitude of the data within that column. As to much of no one’s surprise, as the dividend yield increases, the overall growth of the stock (looking at 1-year and 5-year history) is smaller. This is likely due to the fundamental nature of dividends as the extra money is distributed to shareholders as opposed to reinvesting in the assets. With covered call ETFs, you are prioritizing even more receiving money now as opposed to later at the risk of capping the overall capital gain growth and potentially being taxed at a higher rate. + +[https://imgur.com/d0TyQqh](https://imgur.com/d0TyQqh) + +The chart shows possibly three categories over a spectrum of yield vs. dividend, reading the table from top to bottom: Growth, Growth/Yield, Yield. The one caveat for this table is that it does not take into account the sector of stocks in the ETF (for example, more tech heavy ETFs would have performed better in 2020). If anyone does not know, you can use this website to see the overlap in ETFs ([https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php](https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php)). + +The chart shows ETFs with similar dividends that could be traded off to provide added value. For example, PEY compared to SPHD…both pay monthly (not that it matters) with PEY having a slightly lower yield but gives significantly higher growth in the 1-year and 5-year. DIVO is a similar value-added ETF compared to SPHD and PEY. DIVO’s annual yield is currently 4.87% (also paid monthly, again not that it matters) with a higher 5-year than both PEY and SPHD. Another note is the negative sentiment I read on SPHD on other posts however SPHD has gone on a very impressive run the past year considering its 4.0% annual yield. SPHD also has a “meh” 5-year performance which is of note, and the reason I have written it off. This isn’t a shocker, but I think the best bang for the buck is still SCHD. However, if you are strictly making an income play, like I am, then we have to turn our attention to covered call ETFs. The latter ETFs in the table get into covered call ETFs which will be discussed in further detail below. + +[https://imgur.com/XIKn18c](https://imgur.com/XIKn18c) + +The chart above (see link, might have to download to expand it) shows only the covered call ETFs – NUSI (dark blue), QYLD (green), DIVO (pink), JEPI/JEPAX (cyan). My opinion on these funds like NUSI and QYLD are generally not worth it because (again, in my opinion) we potentially could see an overall capital depreciation. This is due to their inability to recover after large downsides and crashes. Yes, NUSI has “downside” protection, but this is only in severe circumstances (like COVID) but does not offer any protection if the stock drops a smaller percentage (like 3 or 4 percent). In fact, QYLD seems to have better performance in a bull market compared to NUSI. The 1 YR return on QYLD is greater than NUSI but only about 5%. Another comment I have seen is that NUSI has already recovered from COVID, which is true. In my opinion there is a caveat which is that it only recovered because of the downside protection. If it did drop the same as QYLD, we would have no way seen a recovery. My point here is that NUSI is already suffering from the red days we have been having recently. Look at the peaks and see that it is struggling to recover back to its previous peak. To be fair, Nationwide’s prospectus says it is bond-like and not meant to have significant capital appreciation. Moving along, the ones that have recovered from COVID include DIVO and JEPI/JEPAX. Well…JEPAX has almost recovered from COVID, it is basically there. These funds write covered calls – DIVO writes them selectively and JEPI utilizes ELNs which I still do not understand (please someone explain it). My analysis only comes from the standpoint of the historical price action, its overall growth of capital, and the fact they utilize a covered call strategy. + +My point is this…these ETFs are used in a particular situation to prioritize dividend payouts vs. growth. QYLD is strictly income based to receive income now otherwise you risk depreciating capital unless you DCA over time. AKA if you are young and can’t leverage cash then QYLD will probably hurt you over the long run. QYLD could also helpful if you plan to reinvest the dividends to pay for other stock. NUSI is useful in the circumstance that either you need the income right now or you think a massive crash is going to happen soon, like COVID where the stock barely dropped (which is still quite impressive!). From my research, JEPI is the income play in the short term - it recovers from downfalls, it has capital appreciation (very little but at least you theoretically would not have to constantly DCA), and it currently has a yield similar to NUSI (at 7.70%). Yes, the yield fluctuates over time. Look at the historical yield for JEPI and JEPAX – it oscillates, it seems to not grow but also not steadily decline. DIVO would also be a good selection for covered call…you give up more on the yield but as the chart shows it grows at a higher rate. My play right now would be JEPI and DIVO based on this data. I will continue to do more research to further understand as much as I can, and I welcome anyone’s input good or bad. Happy Memorial again, good to take eyes of the stock market every once and a while. Cheers! +I don’t know what else to say- title sums it up pretty well. This sub is becoming the epitome of buy high sell low. Everyone talks about how they wish they bought x or y asset “back when it was cheap.” Now things are getting cheap again and instead of staying level headed people are just losing their minds. But it’s funny to me, because it’s people lump sum investing into solid investment during conditions like these that end up walking away as millionaires. + +It’s funny also how so many were smug and dismissive about anything that wasn’t an overhyped large cap tech stock and now that’s those are imploding people have no imagination what else to invest in. + +- work hard to maintain an income that affords you enough to invest. Not easy but this should be your priority + +- DCA all the way down and then continue DCAing on the eventual return up + +- Put most of your money in global market index funds. Only put a small part of your portfolio towards stocks you do great DD in + +If you are young and do these things- you’ll walk away a millionaire. + +Or don’t and doomscroll Reddit until you’re feeling FOMO in the next bull market. +I am an aspiring real estate investor and will soon have enough cash to get started. When I first learned about leverage, I loved the idea. But then I stared running the numbers and adding up expenses. + +Property management fees (if you have one), mortgage payment, renovations, maintenance, legal fees, accounting fees, realtor fees, closing costs, property taxes, federal taxes, state taxes, vacancy expense, etc. + +I have to wonder, how do RE investors make a profit? It seems like you need to put a 35% + down payment to create good cash flow. I understand the whole concept of leverage and appreciation, but at the end if the day, you are running a business and need to have positive cash flow. + +Would it be better to just take the Dave Ramsey 100% cash approach? Obviously I’d have to delay my investing for a few more years, but I don’t see where the profit comes from otherwise. I’m sure I must be missing something because so many investors successfully use debt. My goal is not only wealth building, but financial freedom and cash flow too. Thanks! +I have been out bid for last couple months for way over asking. So I wasn't actively looking. One raining Saturday figured I'd go look at a open house with a great asking price 299k for 2 family. Open house was 11am to 1pm by appointment. Showed up at 12. No one there asked tenants if there was a open house.. "only 1 appointment at 1230." Viewed property and needs cosmetic fix. I Left and put offer of 330k. Got accepted Tuesday for 300k, I was only offer.. my realestate agent switch from 330k to 300k because i was only offer. Estimate of 20% coc roi with market rent. + +Pretty excited. Lol think the rainy day, short notice of open house and 30 Minutes of showing help. +I know the inflation rates and the value of the £ Have had a huge impact to the UK market. +But what event has specifically happened today? +So many shares are plummeting despite recession proof strategies. Have the hedge funds just cashed out or is something else afoot? +I just noticed the forum sliding getting thicker and thicker and wanted to remind everyone that Point72 and Steve Cohen didn't get their fair share of attention. + +I know people in the background are working on fresh DD, but I will in the meantime pledge to downvote any low effort Kenny face memes and upvote ANYTHING that mentions point72 or Steve Cohen. Even low effort Cohen face Memes, this is placeholder text to automod doesn't nuke me. + +EDIT: a lot of "what about this guy?!" comments, This is specifically for Steve Cohen. Steve Cohen is the person Im interested in. His name is Stevie Cohen. Thats + +S. T. E. V. E. C. O. H.E.N +I spoke with fellow apes who have only DRS'd a handful of shares. If your're committed to going long on a solid company with strong technicals, why sit on the sidelines and watch shorts manipulate your future? They won't play by the rules. The SEC has already turned a blind eye. We already bought the float by mid summer (see voting results). That hasn't stopped Mayo boy & gang from naked short selling. If your shares aren't registered they have been internalized and have done nothing to the price. The MOASS likely won't occur until after the January 2022 puts expire (my opinion). + +Do what you feel is best for you and yours. But if you believe DRS is the way, get off the bench and get into the game. + +*This is Not Financial Advice, just common sense* +My friend told me that the Options are a zero sum game and that neither Option buyers or Option sellers have an advantage. + +He also says assuming even if Option sellers have the advantage of time decay and having the stock be in the correct direction other Option sellers would be faster and eventually cause the premium to go down to that point where Option sellers and Option buyers lead to a net zero outcome. + +Thoughts? +Frankly he has never taken me seriously when it comes to GME. It’s partially the boomer in him, and partially the fact that he’s a literal pioneer in fintech and doesn’t really like being preached to by his son who got a finance degree 10 years ago and has a portfolio of 100% GME. Admittedly, it’s also partially due to my delivery in the past. What can I say? GME gets me torqued. + +BUT, finally today, the subject came up again (aka I brought it up) and I was able to remain calm, articulate, and came off less preachy than I have in the past. I somehow recalled more detail, more names, technical terms etc., and just kinda nailed the delivery. Instead of Dad-splaining based on his much longer history and literal entire career of INVENTING the technology being exploited, he said the words “Everything you’re saying is technically possible, the dynamics and loopholes are accurate and have been forever, and I’m glad that you and your generation actually care now. It’s about time.” + +Pretty sure he’s buying GME at open. + +Take it or leave it, but happy to verify modz. Not financial anything, let alone advice, I am retard. HODL. +I wish I was here with advice or wisdom to help you do the same. I'm not. I'm here as a cautionary tale to tell you what not to do. + +I graduated with a degree in mathematics in 1997. I can not precisely tell you what my loan balance was (cautionary tale, remember?) but it was probably around $30,000. Yep. You read that right. $30,000 and it took me 22 years to get it dealt with. + +Over those years, I defaulted twice. Had wages garnished twice. Went into a repayment program after the first default and was doing pretty darn well until 2016. Had a bunch of personal stuff happen, and ended up in default again. I didn't open my mail. I dodged every phone call from them. I just couldn't face the idea of talking to them. I got really lucky and got a bonus at work. They garnished part of that, and it was enough to finally pay off the loans. I'm free. + +But - if I had just communicated with them and kept myself together, I could have been free years ago. + +I do have a tiny bit of advice learned from the school of hard knocks: + +When bill collectors call you, they can be jerks. However, if YOU call THEM, it's a different story - at least when it comes to student loans. Sit down today and call them if you are in arrears. Talk to them and don't bury your head in the sand. They can do things to help you avoid defaulting - or help you sort it out if you have defaulted. I know it's no fun. I know it's mortifying. But, if you suck it up and make the call, it will be better in the long run. It will give you a path to freedom. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/ywAGqfUAQE). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/ywAGqfUAQE) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/ywAGqfUAQE) +Gamestop wasn't responsible for this, and neither were brokers or countries. ONLY THE DTCC were the ones that screwed this up, so yes, every [insert country/broker] did too if you ignore every single post explaining who was resposible. You're flooding the sub with redunant posts and not acknowledging or knowingly ignoring all of the posts that spells this out. + +Edit1: Your posts won't be used in court if anything ever ends up there. They'll be using communications between the DTCC and the brokers. + +Edit2: Please gain a wrinkle by checking out this post https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wg2e7j/beyond_the_wool_the_smoking_gun_and_how_the_dtcc/ + +edit3: i am not saying supress evidence, I am saying submit it to the regulators and relevant authorities. Don't just post "my country too!" especially since every dam country has already been covered. SUBMIT THAT SHIT, POST YOUR SUBMISSIONS. The governing bodies aren't using your posts to start investigations! + [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-02/buffett-says-berkshire-reversing-course-on-airlines-again?sref=DOTC0U32&utm\_source=facebook&utm\_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm\_medium=social&utm\_content=business&fbclid=IwAR12Q4v8a8hjDhdUDPtoMwel-G1\_hY9\_2ADtjeznVIqd4mdRAxjzAHWXqdQ&fbclid=IwAR3xV2P9ugfPZlA6Hm4wIaoQLAxmGA4cpFvypqSxQ\_o25EWyo0Iun-jXubA&fbclid=IwAR0JOrz6vlCcPtg4yTSh9A\_KmqFnj93HTBDrPeJYa4E-sk0\_uFc3hcFMWck](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-02/buffett-says-berkshire-reversing-course-on-airlines-again?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&fbclid=IwAR12Q4v8a8hjDhdUDPtoMwel-G1_hY9_2ADtjeznVIqd4mdRAxjzAHWXqdQ&fbclid=IwAR3xV2P9ugfPZlA6Hm4wIaoQLAxmGA4cpFvypqSxQ_o25EWyo0Iun-jXubA&fbclid=IwAR0JOrz6vlCcPtg4yTSh9A_KmqFnj93HTBDrPeJYa4E-sk0_uFc3hcFMWck) +Im' looking at Tesla and Shopify stocks. + +Growth stocks that perform well can give you as much as 30%-50% return a year if you can accept the risks. + +But NOT freaking 300% in 6 months?? +Thats not how it's supposed to work. + +I sold all my tesla today, I will probably regret it soon but my brain just can't handle that much gain maybe... It remembers the bubbles of the past and just cannot not compare it to the current situation. + +What's your thoughts? +This tip is so obvious, but I know so many people who don't follow it, even when they are complaining about being broke. + +When you eat out, order water to drink. I love this tip, because nobody thinks your doing it to be cheap, they think your doing it to be healthy. BONUS: It is a healthier choice. + +Drink water at home too. Prices aren't nearly as bad for a soft drink or glass of wine when you buy for home, but they are still a lot more than water. Invest in a filter of some type. I'm using a brita pitcher until I can install a filtration system. Shoot, depending on where you live you might be totally fine with tap water. + +I started doing this in college when I had to scrape by on minimal hours $100 a week via part time hours, plasma donations, and overage checks and still do it most of the time today (15 years later). Small, but easy habit to build and the savings add up pretty quickly. +Reposting my comment from the daily. + +https://twitter.com/MorningBrew/status/1453445533754855433?s=20 + +https://etherscan.io/address/0x1406899696adb2fa7a95ea68e80d4f9c82fcdedd + +I haven't been in crypto for very long or very deep, but this is the craziest trade I've ever seen. That is like 6 MILLION X returns, not %, in like a little over a year. + +I've largely ignored SHIB, not even on fundamentals and it being a real coin or whatever, but even on a meme level, I thought DOGE has it beat, that it was just a copycat and won't have the history or community power of the original DOGE. + +But I guess I was wrong. SHIB lays bare how subjective value really is. I thought it was loose before, but valuation is actually 100% based on feeling, 0% objective anything. +**EDIT #3** 3:10P EST: *sigh* No bs, ex-GF is threatening to "fuck off" roomies credit and purposely damage assets after their discussion about the car delinquency. Can anyone offer a suggestion before something goes wrong? Real stressful times man. Link to the other post [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/legaladvice/comments/6wtib4/ct21mupdate_sigh_exso_stating_that_she_has_ssn/). I didn't want to edit it into here cause I didn't think it would get enough attention and I'm just so stressed out. I definitely think both posts warrant their own dicussion thread. Once again, thank you to everyone and anyone who offers suggestions and advice; I really appreciate it. + +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +So, long story short this is a brother to me. We're not related but we've been through a lot. I invited him to live with me splitting expenses when he was on his last dollar. I promised him that I'd never let him be homeless again. This was late April. + +He came from another state and had an SO. He had an apartment under his name with her and (stupidly, which I told him not to) financed a 2016 Kia something. Came out to like 16K initially. He left the SO and the car out in the other state and came to live with me after things with her spiraled downhill. He knew that being around her wouldn't be healthy and he couldn't progress. So that's the back story. + +Foolishly, again against my advisement, he left the car (which is **joint responsibility** in between the two them in the other state in the SO's hands instead of giving it back to the dealership. Four months later, we were thinking about a small personal loan so he could get a $1,500-$3,000 car just for work and a small $1,000 emergency fund. So... we run his credit report. + +It returns with a freaking 486, 492 and 496, from all three major credit agencies and **5 collections accounts**, **4** of which were **tickets** (that he knew about, but didn't know hit collections) and the **5th** which blindsided the both of us, **$499 past due** on the vehicle with the last payment received on f**cking April 1st, 2017 and the first delinquency on June 1st, 2017. + +Basically, his ex-SO screwed him and broke her promise to pay the car, tanking both of their credit scores. + +Here are the debts in total (not 100% accurate cause I'm on laptop not home PC): + +- Car, joint with SO - **$15,500** initial takeout. About **14,000 owed**. No payment since 04/01. He hasn't spoken to old SO in months. Do you think the repossessed the car? What should he do about this? + +He wants to give them back the car but if they're gonna take the car and make them pay the $14,000 debt, then that'd just be stupid. What if they take the car for used value (I guess $9,000), remove that from the $14,000 debt and split it evenly amongst the two debtors? That would be ~$2,500-$3,000 sans any fees. Is that how they do things or? + +- Ticket from old state for license suspension. Owe's $3,000 on license, takes $1,000 to get reinstated but the collection debt is **$1,272**. + +- Ticket from old state. Don't know what it is. He has about 3 of them all around the $3-$500 range. I'll ask more about what these are from exactly, but I'm more worried about the financial ramifications. + +**EDIT: 2:13P EST**: Let me just also add that he doesn't have state health care (Husky) or any for that matter so seeking guidance, help, therapy and/or counseling is not a viable option right now. Sorry I didn't mention that earlier, my apologies. + +Like the title says, yes, my roommate is about the closest thing to at the lowest point I've ever seen. He has $0 savings and probably $100 to his name after bills. He doesn't have a car and I couldn't even give him my old one to get a better job but he can't even drive it cause of his suspended license. He has **no** college credits and has failed out of two different state institutions (sigh, probably both of which he owes money to now). + +He works 35-40 hours a week at Dunkin' Donuts making like $10.50/h. I don't want this to be my brother, I don't want this to be his life. I just don't know how to get him out of this spot. We are literal **complete polar opposites.** + +All family is in another state and he grew up in the foster care system. He left foster care on his own when he was 18 for the freedom. Is there anyways we can get the benefits back from him or? + +No health care to his name right now, however we have free health care available to us in our state. Does anybody know how long it takes to get this done? + +I'm the one with the 739 credit score, 51 college credits, job for last 20 months, two cars in my name, $0 debt, 4-digits savings and the apartment is in my name. I really don't know how to help him out and it's so, so, so frustrating. + +Please, please, **please**, *anybody* that could give us *any* guidance would be **SO** appreciated. I mean wholeheartedly. Because it's draining me because I care so much about this kid and it's clearly draining him because I mean, just look at that situation. + +Is there anything we could do? Any trades you guys would recommend? Changes don't have to be immediate, but they just have to happen ): + +Thanks so much guys :/ + +**EDIT**: Should he file for bankruptcy? I mean, his credit is so shit that it wouldn't make a difference but I **KNOW** that *nobody* wants to speak to you for the next 7 years after that, and I wouldn't call this an amount of "unrepayable debt." + +**EDIT #2:** I have a stats class at 3:55P EST and I'm just going to relax right now. I didn't know this post was going to get this much attention (6.3k at time of viewing, 2:10P EST) and I can't respond to everyone, whether right away or all together. Please, however, know that I am reading everyone's perspectives and points of view and will allow him to read them as well, if he pleases. Thank you all so much for your time and care, and hopefully I'll be able to update this post when he's made/leaning towards a decision. +WSJ + +https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/goldman-sachs-explores-a-new-world-trading-bitcoin-1506959128 + +Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS 0.80% is weighing a new trading operation dedicated to bitcoin and other digital currencies, the first blue-chip Wall Street firm preparing to deal directly in this burgeoning yet controversial market, according to people familiar with the matter. +Goldman’s effort is in its early stages and may not proceed, the people said. The firm’s interest, though, could boost bitcoin’s standing among investors and fuel the debate around digital currencies, which were initially viewed as havens for illicit activity but are pushing further into the mainstream investment world. + +China in recent weeks has banned exchanges that trade bitcoin, fearing the virtual currency could provide an avenue for capital flight. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive James Dimon, whose bank is the largest dealer in global currencies, last month called bitcoin a “fraud” and said he would fire any employee who traded it. + +Yet Japan’s government has embraced bitcoin, creating regulations to legitimize its trading. India and Sweden have mused about creating their own virtual currencies, and the U.S. Federal Reserve has studied both bitcoin and the technology underpinning it. + + +“In response to client interest in digital currencies we are exploring how best to serve them in this space,” a Goldman spokeswoman said. + +Bitcoin is a digital currency that runs on a decentralized network of computers, rather than a centralized ledger under the control of a central bank or government. Users can exchange value directly, without a middleman such as a bank. + +Big banks, including J.P. Morgan and Goldman, have dabbled in the technology behind bitcoin, known as blockchain, and opined on its potential to reshape industries. But they have been wary of venturing directly into a market whose early enthusiasts included anarchists and drug dealers. + +As digital coins proliferate and draw interest from professional investors, though, they become harder for Wall Street trading desks to ignore. + +Bitcoin’s price has soared this year, from $969 to more than $5,000 last month before pulling back. Ethereum, a rival, traded as high as $400 after ending 2016 at $8. In all, nearly $150 billion worth of digital currencies are in circulation. + +Goldman’s seeks to serve a growing cadre of institutional investors wagering on bitcoin. Its effort could eventually entail a team of traders and salespeople making markets in bitcoins much as they do Japanese yen or shares of Apple Inc. +Keeping abreast of the day-to-day cryptocurrency market could also position Goldman to capitalize on further development of this market. Digital-currency proponents envision a world where coins will be widely accepted by online retailers and companies will use the tokens for cross-border commerce. + +Already, cryptocurrencies are infringing on some traditional banking activities. Some startup companies that historically might have hired banks to take them public are bypassing Wall Street by selling digital tokens, rather than shares, to the public. Such “initial coin offerings”raised $1.3 billion over the past three months without paying fees to underwriting banks. +Goldman’s effort involves both its currency-trading division and the bank’s strategic investment group, the people said. That suggests the firm believes bitcoin’s future is more as a payment method rather than a store of value, like gold. + +Launched in 2009, bitcoin grew as a communal software project championed by cypherpunks, who embraced its technological promise, and libertarians, who cheered its independence from government influence. In recent years, more sophisticated exchanges have cropped up to host trading, attracting professional investors. + +Some 70 hedge funds now invest in cryptocurrencies, according to Autonomous NEXT. + +Exchange-traded funds meant to track digital currencies have so far faced pushback from regulators, but they could one day give a wider base of investors a way to indirectly own bitcoin and create new opportunities for savvy traders. + +Such interest from institutional investors has propelled the bitcoin market to a size that merits banks’ attention. About $750 million worth of bitcoin trades on exchanges every day, on par with the daily trading volume of shares of Caterpillar Inc., the equipment maker. +Already, a handful of nonbank finance firms, such as DRW Holdings LLC’s Cumberland Mining and Genesis Global Trading Inc., broker bitcoin trades for institutional investors that want to buy or sell larger amounts than exchanges could handle. + +That is a role that banks could easily step into. Wall Street firms also offer leverage to juice trading returns, and hold assets on clients’ behalf. So far, though, none of the big banks has dealt directly in bitcoin. + +For starters, bitcoin is highly volatile. After doubling in price between July and early September, bitcoin lost 35% of its value in two weeks. That exposes dealers to the risk of big, quick losses. +But it also offers an opportunity for quick-footed traders to profit by anticipating price moves and facilitating panicked trading. Volatility has been sorely missing lately in traditional markets, leading to a slump in banks’ trading revenues. + +Goldman, once known as the nimblest trader on Wall Street, has struggled more than peers. Revenue in its fixed-income division fell 21% from last year through June, dragged down by poor performance in commodities and currencies. +Already, some of the infrastructure for trading bitcoin is cropping up. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission this summer approved the first derivatives exchange for cryptocurrencies. LedgerX, founded by two former Goldman traders, will clear options and futures that would allow dealers to protect themselves from dramatic price swings and lock in profits. + +Many prominent financiers, including Mr. Dimon, believe central banks such as the Federal Reserve will move to shut down digital currencies before they go mainstream enough to rival government-backed notes. + +Morgan Stanley Chief Executive James Gorman recently took a nuanced view. He said bitcoin is “obviously highly speculative, but it’s not inherently bad.” + +Hey, I have two rentals. Each are at about $200k in market value. Each has about $125k left in the mortgage, which is for another 14 years. Interest rates are about 4.25% for a both. Payments are \~$1,500/month (?). Rents are also about \~$1,500/month. Should I place more capital into the properties and pay off the mortgage sooner; or, should I just perform maintenance and let the tenants pay off the mortgage for me? And why? +TL;DR - My motivation to FIRE has taken over my life to the point where I'm having a hard time enjoying spending my money or the simple joys and journey of life because I see every decision as either helping or harming my ability to FIRE. + +\----------------------------------------------------------- + +I discovered FIRE about 2-3 years ago after a friend posted an article to a blog post from Millenial Revolution. Luckily enough, I had made some of the right decisions already (i.e. paid off my student loans, contributed to 401k up to match), but after I discovered FIRE and calculated that I could retire early in 7 years, I started to aggressively save, dumped every spare dollar into index funds, and lowered all my expenses. + +I hit $500K in net worth last month and it was a satisfying number to look at, yet as I was scrolling through old photos of myself from 5-7 years ago, I realized I wasn't necessarily happier for it. Over the past 2 years, I realized I've become more annoyed with work, and paralyzed or fearful of making any decisions that jeopardize my ability to FIRE. In the past, I would happily book an expensive, peak-season flight to an international country, buy a new camera just because I wanted it and I would be driven and motivated at work, exhibiting all the behaviors I needed to land that next promotion. + +But since discovering FIRE, I haven't taken any international trips, haven't bought anything that's expensive yet could further my hobbies or interests (e.g. new camera for photography, roof rack for car), and outright stopped caring about work to the point where my attitude towards it has become bitter and resentful. I figure if I just coast at my job for the next few years, I'll hit my FIRE goal within 5-7 years. But it is actually out of character for me to care so little about my career and feel so apathetic. My coworkers are pretty surprised and baffled at my apathy towards work. + +I'm seeing every single decision I make is either for or against achieving FIRE. Have a baby? But that might push out my FIRE date. Buy a house? It would be a dumb decision in NYC based on all the blog posts I've read. Hold a wedding? How many more years will I need to work? Buy a new laptop? But that's $XXXXX lost if I invested it in the market instead. Get a new job? Why bother, I just need to suck it up for 5 more years. Etc. Etc. + +Now I'm wondering if I would've been happier if I didn't discover FIRE at all... If I was ignorant? I see some friends who have no idea what FIRE is happily enjoying their money and their life and I am jealous of them. I feel like it's become a mental restraint I've placed on myself. And these next 5 years feel like they're going to be pretty miserable until I can hit my FIRE #. + +Any suggestions on how to break out of this mindset would be appreciated! +Throw away account.. + +I've been contemplating early retirement in 2023. Need folks here to double check my readiness. Thanks for your feedback in advance. + +About us: +Me and my wife are both 54 this year. No kids. We live in VHCOL (CA). No plan to relocate for at least 5-10 yrs (family reason). + +Our assets +Our net worth right now is about 7M (1.5M in a paid off home, 5M in index fund, 0.5M in cash or short term savings) + +Our expenses +In retirement our budget is 100K/yr. This includes healthcare expenses (either Cobra or CoveredCA marketplace insurance), travel, taxes and day to day living expenses. For simplicity, I am not counting inflation in this plan. But we are also not counting on future upsides (Inheritance and market growth) so they will end up as a wash. + +In retirement, we expect to receive about 50K in annual dividends and cap distribution. We will use 50K from our cash pile to cover the difference. We can do this for 10 years til we are 65 when Medicare and Social Security will kick in to lower our healthcare cost and increase our income. Another reason for doing this is to keep our MAGI low enough to qualify for CoveredCA subsidy. Basically we don't need to sell any equity for up to 10 years. + +I do have some medical issues but it's under control and the insurance we are buying should cover any treatment. + +Please let me know if you think we are ready to pull the trigger in 2023 and if we are missing any important things in our plan. +(EDITS BELOW FOR CLARITY) + +So YTD i've sold 450 option contracts: + +\- I was assigned on Puts 47 times out of 275 contracts sold (so 17% of the time). I collected $26k. + +\- I got called away 34 times out 175 contracts sold (20%). I collected $20k. + +I still hold 7 stocks that were assigned on which i can't do any decent CC coz the price gapped down big time and still far from brkeven. + +**I write mostly weeklies, rarely roll, and never ever use margin.** + +My key lessons so far are: + +1. **The discipline of wheeling stocks you TRULY don't mind holding is critical.** Those 7 stocks i "stuck" with were all SPACs. I had some conviction on the underlying but I played mostly coz the premiums were juicy. +2. **A steady win rate rate on small gains works.** Overtime, the reduction in cost basis of selling CCs on my core positions (shit I intend to hold forever) is material. I reduced my cost by 15%. +3. **Not using margin gives you real control of what you do.** I have zero pressure to sell losing trades and can hold till I recover. Happened a few times. + +How does this all this compare to your results? Comments/feedback welcome. + +EDITS FOR CLARITY: + +1. As per the title, the point of this thread was more to discuss/compare # of times one gets assigned or called away - the premiums i mentioned were those on ASSIGNED only; excludes unassigned and stocks. +2. My TWR ytd is close to 18-19% - this include realized and unrealized on stocks an options. +3. I don't track TWR just on options. I only focus on generating X amount of income pa. +4. My investment horizon for stock is 5-10 years. For LEAPS 2 years. For option - mostly weeklies. It's just what I do - not saying its great and happy to get constructive feedback, however critical. +5. NOW - I don't feel obliged to share my account value - if that's all you want to know; go f urself +6. For those who saw two CNBC clips and are playing "hedge fund managers" and talking "alpha" - go f yourself too. +7. Ans yeah I invest to both make money AND Learn. And if you think learning has no value - go f urself one more time. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; +(EDITS BELOW FOR CLARITY) + +So YTD i've sold 450 option contracts: + +\- I was assigned on Puts 47 times out of 275 contracts sold (so 17% of the time). I collected $26k. + +\- I got called away 34 times out 175 contracts sold (20%). I collected $20k. + +I still hold 7 stocks that were assigned on which i can't do any decent CC coz the price gapped down big time and still far from brkeven. + +**I write mostly weeklies, rarely roll, and never ever use margin.** + +My key lessons so far are: + +1. **The discipline of wheeling stocks you TRULY don't mind holding is critical.** Those 7 stocks i "stuck" with were all SPACs. I had some conviction on the underlying but I played mostly coz the premiums were juicy. +2. **A steady win rate rate on small gains works.** Overtime, the reduction in cost basis of selling CCs on my core positions (shit I intend to hold forever) is material. I reduced my cost by 15%. +3. **Not using margin gives you real control of what you do.** I have zero pressure to sell losing trades and can hold till I recover. Happened a few times. + +How does this all this compare to your results? Comments/feedback welcome. + +EDITS FOR CLARITY: + +1. As per the title, the point of this thread was more to discuss/compare # of times one gets assigned or called away - the premiums i mentioned were those on ASSIGNED only; excludes unassigned and stocks. +2. My TWR ytd is close to 18-19% - this include realized and unrealized on stocks an options. +3. I don't track TWR just on options. I only focus on generating X amount of income pa. +4. My investment horizon for stock is 5-10 years. For LEAPS 2 years. For option - mostly weeklies. It's just what I do - not saying its great and happy to get constructive feedback, however critical. +5. NOW - I don't feel obliged to share my account value - if that's all you want to know; go f urself +6. For those who saw two CNBC clips and are playing "hedge fund managers" and talking "alpha" - go f yourself too. +7. Ans yeah I invest to both make money AND Learn. And if you think learning has no value - go f urself one more time. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; +What are your feelings on giving your kids some of your $$ early on when they are in their prime and can really benefit from doing some extraordinary things? I don't think it's really that bad sharing some of what I have accumulated with them now, but I know some are so totally against touching their life savings because they worked so hard to get there and might need it in their older ages. I'm 58 and just think helping out the kids with some extras that will enhance their lives while they are young is not a really bad idea. (I am totally aware this is dependent on where I am on the "FIRE" chart, I get this.....I am such a simple minimalist and just want my kids to enjoy extras like a nice vacation or an opportunity to live in a really chill vibing place for my youngest, and I feel I have plenty, and it really brings me joy, to see my kids thriving and enjoying life. They are all great adult kids, work and take care of their families and sometimes that little boost for a fun extra is just my idea of sharing.) +I do understand that I am in a privileged position, and am grateful for that. + + +However + +I am a 30yo doctor and have taken 3 years out of training to do ad-hoc “locum work” at a higher hourly rate. This has seen my salary temporarily go from 40k to 90k (or so). + +I get paid weekly and take home around 3.5 to 4.5k a month currently. The only purpose for this career move was to afford a house - now it seems like it was a waste of time. + +Houses in my area are about 420-500k (cheaper ones will need work). Flats aren’t any cheaper. These aren’t fancy houses - they are the exact same ones that some people are given as “council houses”. + +When I return to training, my salary will drop again to <3k and it will take me at least another 7 years to hit the 90k+ mark again… I have to be mindful of this. + +In these last few years I have managed to save 35k from basically nothing +11k @ LISA +16k @ 2.75% +5k @ 5% +3k @ S&S ISA + +My fixed bills are around 2k /month (including rent @ £1,000 for a 1 bed flat). Then plus food / fuel / leisure etc. I do live comfortably with a nice diet and after a couple holidays etc I spend average 2.5-3k/month. (EDIT - This includes some larger life purchases averaged into the monthly. Moving forward, monthly for us both is closer to 2k.) + +No debt. Except Student loan - 40k left over both plan 1 and 2. + +My partner takes home far less (1.2k / month or so) + +For a basic 450k house, 25k down and ~95% LTV I need to churn out 2.6k / month on a mortgage. And that’s before any renovations, new bills etc. AND that’s a 35 year mortgage! I’ll be paying until I’m 65! A “normal” 25y mortgage is 3k/month. + + +I’m just so disillusioned seeing others on far lower salaries buying houses and I don’t know how anyone is affording it. Do I really need to spend my entire life paying my entire salary on a tiny 2.5 bed semi? + +EDIT; +To further clarify, my fixed outgoings are closer to 2k. I own my car outright etc and no payment plans of any sort. The 3k figure included large essential purchases averaged over a long period (maybe wasn’t the best way to calculate that in hindsight?) +**For forex trading** + +So been working on this as a hobby for maybe 4/5 months or so and on Friday I was ready to api link to a broker and complete a day’s testing. + +Im not going to go into intricate detail of the data, ML approach, indicators or anything specific at this stage as for one I am knackered and two I do intend to update this post later down the line. All ill say for damn sure is that it is not a neural network or any other overcomplicated model. + +The key points: the bot continuously runs every 1 min and opens all forex pairs which meet acceptable ensemble predictor parameters (at low value tied to % of funds available). Then in a similar fashion closes these when preferential risk/profit ratios are met. Strategy is low risk, high frequency, with conservative exit settings. ‘Lots and lots of low value green, aggregates to big profits with scalability’ + +This means hundreds and hundreds of small value trades over the day, and roughly equally distributed during the day. + +The output: 4% net profit at markets close (with further 2-3% upside in open positions) +The upside: expectation for this % to be driven upwards across every iterative run and over a month of unsupervised testing I intend I allow to give it. + +Interested in thoughts at a high level and as stated, I will elaborate more on technical side in due time. +This post and giveaway was generously funded by a community member who would like to remain anonymous. To qualify for the giveaway all you have to do is reply to this post and be a subscriber to r/cryptocurrency. The contest will be closed after 48hrs. and the winners will be contacted and the prizes dispersed shortly after. More details below. + +------------------- + +**First a little about what VeChain is, and what it's goals are:** + +##What Is VeChain? + +VeChain is designed to improve supply chain management and business processes using blockchain technology. The goal is to make these processes and information flow more streamlined using distributed ledger technology. + +There are two tokens on the platform: (VET) VeChain Token and (VTHO) VeChainThor Energy. VET is used to transfer value/information on the ledger and VTHO is used as energy to power the smart contracts. + +VeChain is considered by many to be a mature distributed ledger technology company with hundreds of real-world use cases already existing. + +VeChain states that its goal is: + +> “to build a trust-free and distributed business ecosystem platform to enable transparent information flow, efficient collaboration, and high-speed value transfers." + +If you are interested in learning more about VeChain, please visit the official site [VeChain.org](https://www.vechain.org) or visit the VeChain sub-reddit r/VeChain which just surpassed 100k members!! + +Other links: + + - [Whitepaper](https://www.vechain.org/whitepaper) + - [GitHub page](https://github.com/vechain/thor) + + +-------------------- + +##Giveaway Details + + - 4 winners will be chosen at random, each receiving a prize of 2500 VET!! 🎉🎉 + - To enter, please leave a top-level reply to this post. (Leave a comment directly to this post ⬇️) + - One entry per account. Duplicate comments will not be counted. + - **Users must be subscribed to r/cryptocurrency to qualify for this giveaway.** + - Entries after 48hrs. will not be counted (closes Friday, March 26th 3:00am UTC) + - Once the 48hrs is over, a numbered list of all the users who qualified will be posted along with a hash to verify integrity. + - Once the list is made public, A drawing will be scheduled using https://www.randomresult.com/. A link will be posted here where users can view the results in a transparent manner. 4 numbers will be drawn corresponding with the numbers in the list. + +The list of qualified users and scheduled results will be posted below when they become available. **Good luck to everyone!** +Howdy apes! u/Bradduck_Flyntmoore here! I've seen a whole bunch of posts from various members of the community offering to help other apes with things pertaining to their irl work/knowledge. I've also removed a bunch of said posts because they are not about GME or the market mechanics driving it (ngl, I hate removing the content, since I know Ape just want help ape). + +That being said, I figured I would ask y'all directly: is this content y'all want? We could easily turn it into a thing, if so. Basically we would put up a separate post and have apes volunteer with their field/area of expertise. Then we would pin a post from them (for a few hours) where apes can ask questions regarding that topic. Each day a different Ape with a different set of skills and knowledge to offer. We could also make it a requirement that volunteers provide proof that they are, indeed, a member of the field they claim, just to cover the bases and make sure apes are getting legit info. + +This is a community, and the members here have a HUGE range of information available to share. Much of it, I believe, could potentially help apes save money for more moon tickets, but if the community doesn't want this sort of content, then we can continue removing it. Please vote your opinion on this idea below. + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/ostn3d) +Title gives the tl;dr, but essentially I'm in a position whereby in the next 12 months, I'll have a NW of $6M+ (excluding primary residence). + + +I'm currently only 25, I'll skip the detailed story (unless you guys actually want to hear it), but essentially although growing up with very little, I launched several successful businesses between the age of 17-25 and have built up a solid chunk of change through this. My latest business is flourishing even more than the predecessors, and I currently am on track to do $2M+ net this year. Me and my partner live a reasonably luxurious lifestyle, but nothing too extravagant (maybe $180k/yr spend). + + +Here's the kicker though, the business takes everything out of me. I work 12-14 hour days, 7 days per week, maybe with 1 weeks vacation per year if I'm lucky. I keep telling myself that this is okay because of the income it brings along with being at an age whereby my body is able to "do it", nonetheless, the burnout is real and I can feel it. At the same time, it seems stupid to not just keep working for another 2-3 years and then have $10M+ NW? + + +My business is sadly not something that I can really simply offload to staff members and although they certainly help - without me putting in serious daily work, the business will cease to thrive and start to decline. It's also not really sellable unless I was to go with it, likely with a 2-3 year earnout clause or similar. + + +My main questions are really: + + +1. To anybody who fatfired in your mid 20's (or younger), did you get bored? I'm pretty sure I can fill my time and be happy for the next several years, but it's hard to even imagine doing that for 3X longer than I've even been on this planet already. Where does your fulfilment come from? a 75 year "retirement" seems like a crazy idea. +2. Do you wish you waited until a higher age? +3. Most people here seem to be under the impression of vanguard funds and chill as the overall strategy. Would you still recommend this for somebody of my age, or should I go more aggressive (in theory I have the time to "weather the storms")? +I can’t help but to feel like it minimizes the community or makes a bit of a joke out of it. Yea, I know where it comes from, but I don’t care. It’s stupid. + +It’s kinda like how anyone who smokes pot is a “stoner” and must enjoy the 420 culture (clothing and accessories adorned with pot leafs, the “420 bruh!” types, etc). People are absolutely blown away to discover that people in the 6 and 7 figure salary windows smoke daily. They don’t fit the “420 Bruh!” mold. + +Eventually someone not in the community is gonna see “HODL” and take it all, everything we do and talk about, as a joke. If we can’t take ourselves seriously with this, why should/would anyone else? + +Hold, folks. Hold. + +But then again maybe it annoys me because I’m a day/swing trader. I don’t hold shit. + +Am I wrong or just an asshole? +REPOSTING BECAUSE REDDIT WAS BEING AN ASS AND NOT RENDERING THE PAGE PROPERLY, AND HALF OF THE PEOPLE SAW NOTHING AT ALL------------------------------------------------------ + +# Disclaimer + +I am writing this after watching the panel [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR3AHHmCbAI&t=7s) once. Not knowing who anyone on the panel *is*, and not knowing most of the acronyms and terms that were mentioned *were*, I wanted to do some digging and explain some things as best as I understand. + +# Be advised + +The amount of information, publications, and webpages covering this topic is PLENTIFUL, and I've spent the last couple days off and on combing through page after page picking out what I think best fits a Reddit DD, while still providing value. That said, There will of course be a topic, requirement, or something else that I may have missed, but this more than covers the gist. + +\-------------------------------------------- + +# TLDR + +New margin requirements are coming into effect on September 1, 2022. In a process of phases that started in September of 2016, phase 6 is now on the way. This final phase, has the lowest threshold to date, which is $8 billion; a FAR cry from the $3 trillion threshold of phase 1. As such, MANY more counterparties--institutions, hedge funds, family office, etc--will come into scope, where, if the threshold is exceeded, margin calls can happen, on top of the hefty administrative fees and costs associated with exceeding the threshold. + +Moreover, the panel video from November expresses a clear opinion--in a couple of the panelist--that not everyone has been working through the laborious laundry list of preparing to comply, if they have started at all. Which leads me to believe that MANY will be caught of guard September 1, 2022. + +And no, this will not be delayed. This phase was already delayed a year due to Covid, but this is happening in a few weeks, come rain or shine. + +\----------------------------------------------- + +I have seen the below screenshot posted a lot across socials the last few days, and rightfully so. + +However, I have not seen much in the way of explaining some of the nuts and bolts of what exactly is going on. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.isda.org\/countdown-to-phase-6-initial-margin\/ ](https://preview.redd.it/y8nfddx4yze91.png?width=1194&format=png&auto=webp&s=0afe4cd45fbdafb2e3637e2e1a41c8d1c19cd6f9) + +Also, a recent panel video on the subject that was recorded in November 2021 was streamed to YouTube on Jul 5, 2022. On this panel were members from financial institutions, law firms, and ISDA itself. The video is 53-ish minutes, but I feel it's worth the watch, for sure... especially if you go through this DD first--should you decide to do so--and then watch the video with the proper context. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=bR3AHHmCbAI&t=7s ](https://preview.redd.it/jn42jlabyze91.png?width=968&format=png&auto=webp&s=09ccdca83dc2303a08190d8caa4212159f9c4464) + +&#x200B; + +# Let's start with some key terms + +&#x200B; + +* **AANA** (Average Aggregated Notional Amount): is a gross notional calculation across all uncleared OTC trades per firm, for a three-month regulatory calculation period, to determine the Initial Margin phase that firm is in-scope for.Said another way, per [CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/navigating-uncleared-margin-rules.html#case), "*AANA is what regulators use to determine whether a firm is in scope for IM in Phases 5 & 6. Asset managers, banks, hedge funds, corporates, pensions and more may be subject to the requirements"* +* **ACA** (Account Control Agreement): Per [ISDA](https://www.isda.org/book/2013-account-control-agreement/), provides market participants with a standardized form of agreement for the segregation of independent amounts for uncleared swaps with an independent third party custodian. +* **CSA** (Credit Support Annexes): Per [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/creditsupportannex.asp#:~:text=A%20credit%20support%20annex%20(CSA)%20is%20a%20document%20that%20defines,and%20Derivatives%20Association%20(ISDA)), a credit support annex (CSA) is a document that defines the terms for the provision of collateral by the parties in derivatives transactions. It is one of four parts of a standard contract or master agreement developed by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA)[ISDA](https://www.isda.org/countdown-to-phase-6-initial-margin/) gives more insight into CSA's, which they inform us are governance and guidance documents provided to firms for compliance with margin requirements +* "**CREATE**" (or ISDA CREATE): is a platform that provides an efficient documentation framework to automate the creation and delivery of IM documentation, and negotiate and execute IM documentation with multiple counterparties simultaneously while capturing, processing and storing data from these documents +* [**Initial Margin**](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/initialmargin.asp) (IM): Initial margin is the percentage of the purchase price of a security that must be covered by cash or collateral when using a margin account +* "**ISDA** [**SIMM**](https://www.isda.org/a/cgDDE/simm-for-non-cleared-20131210.pdf)" (or SIMM®): ISDA Standard Initial Margin Model is a governance framework or methodology that provide users things like timely and transparent dispute resolution and allowing consistent regulatory governance. and oversight +* **NISC**: Newly In-Scope Counterparties +* [**Variation Margin**](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/variationmargin.asp) (VM): Paid on a daily or intraday basis to reduce risk, a variable margin payment made by clearing members, such as a futures broker, to their respective clearing houses based on adverse price movements of the futures contracts these members hold.Put another way, VM is used to bring capital back up to the margin level. + +&#x200B; + +# The Panel Members + +&#x200B; + +* [Andrew L. Kayiira Jr.](https://www.edenpointpartners.com/the-firm/).; Founder and Managing Partner, **Eden Point Partners** and Strategic Consultant to **ISDA**Eden Point Partners is a capital markets advisory firm, delivering solutions for institutions operating within the OTC derivatives space. +* [Amy Caruso](https://www.isda.org/about-isda/executives/); Head of Collateral Initiatives, **ISDA** +* [Doug Donahue](https://www.linklaters.com/en/find-a-lawyer/douglas-donahue); Finance Partner; **Linklaters LLP** (Law Firm) +* [Tara Kruse](https://www.linkedin.com/in/tara-kruse-8bb33a8); Global Head of Data, Infrastructure and Non-Cleared Margin, **ISDA** +* [Ed Corral](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edcorral/); Global Head of Tri-Party Repo \[formerly Global Head of Collateral Optimization\], **Morgan Stanley** +* [John Pucciarelli](https://www.acadia.inc/our-people/john-pucciarelli); Head of Industry & Regulatory Strategy, **Acadia** +* [Ted Leveroni](https://www.linkedin.com/in/tedleveroni/); Head of Margin Services, **BNY Mellon** \- Markets + +**Fun Fact** about Acadia; a "*market-leading risk management platform for the derivatives industry*". + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.acadia.inc\/company\/our-story ](https://preview.redd.it/un99uqzhyze91.png?width=1303&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ec875d70a48ab973bd1a993f0beca2a07fcf2d3) + +(Leaving this nugget here for anyone who wants to do some digging) + +&#x200B; + +# The Topic of this Panel? + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.isda.org\/countdown-to-phase-6-initial-margin\/ ](https://preview.redd.it/rxapd1woyze91.png?width=659&format=png&auto=webp&s=a674d9924be13e8f6d7af2dae56d9ce94891b7cd) + +'***As of September 1, 2022***\*,\* ***regulatory*** ***initial margin*** ***(IM)*** ***requirements will apply for the first time to hundreds of global counterparties*** ***that*** *belong to a consolidated group for which* ***the average aggregate notional amount (AANA) of derivatives transactions exceeds €8 billio****n,* ***or a similar amount in local currency***\*.\* ***This compliance date is commonly referred to as ‘Phase 6’****, since it is the sixth global compliance date for the phase-in of regulatory IM requirements since September 1, 2016.* + +***ISDA estimates that more than 775 counterparties with an excess of 5,400 relationships may become subject to regulatory IM requirements in Phase 6***\*. More than 800 of those relationships may need to exchange IM in the near-term following September 1, and therefore should be actively preparing at this stage.\* + +***Preparation for regulatory IM is complex and resource intense, involving the bilateral negotiation of new IM documents, the establishment of custodial accounts, and operational preparation for collateral management processing – including margin calculation, margin call communication, allocation, and affirmation, collateral settlement and reporting.*** *It is imperative that a group of counterparties that anticipates it will exceed the AANA threshold for Phase 6 and is likely to exceed the IM threshold of €50 million (or similar in local currency) notifies its counterparties and begins preparation*.' + +&#x200B; + +# Onto ISDA + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.isda.org\/ ](https://preview.redd.it/j9gn7100zze91.png?width=311&format=png&auto=webp&s=77e9152b40b584aa76c10e3d0aa3e1f3a1ae4802) + +&#x200B; + +So, "**Who or What is ISDA**\*\*\*"\*\*\*? + +According to [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/isda.asp), the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) is a private trade organization whose members, mainly banks, transact in the OTC derivatives market. This association helps to improve the market for privately negotiated over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives by identifying and reducing risks in that market. + +&#x200B; + +For a more "ape friendly" explanation, let's revisit The Big Short. + +&#x200B; + +[The Big Short ](https://i.redd.it/szj0z9s2zze91.gif) + +As we learned from this now infamous scene of the 2015 smash hit--now cult classic and "must watch" to retail investors alike--in order to "sit at the big boy table", you need an ISDA \[agreement\]. + +&#x200B; + +"**What is an ISDA Agreement?**", you ask? + +Per [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/isda-master-agreement.asp), **an ISDA** Master **Agreement** **is** the standard document regularly **used to govern** over-the-counter **(OTC) derivatives transactions** **and outlines the terms** to be applied to a derivatives transaction between two parties, typically a derivatives dealer and a counterparty. + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR**: An ISDA agreement gives an institution/firm/entity the ability to make significant sums of money by engaging in off-exchange transactions on derivatives and swaps. + +[BNY-Melon](https://www.isda.org/a/YPngE/BNY-Mellon-Custody-Documents-Available-on-ISDA-Create-Press-Release.pdf) informs us that "**ISDA has over 960 member institutions from 78 countries**". + +&#x200B; + +**"So, this change is coming from ISDA?**" + +No. As reported by [ISDA](https://www.isda.org/a/D6fEE/ISDA-SIFMA-Initial-Margin-Phase-in-White-Paper-July-2018.pdf), "*the* ***Basel Committee on Bank Supervision and International Organization of SecuritiesCommissions (BCBS-IOSCO)*** *developed and finalized their Final Framework on MarginRequirements for Non-Centrally Cleared Derivatives (BCBS-IOSCO Final Framework), which sought to establish international standards for such requirements*..." + +&#x200B; + +# Okay, so "What's all this 'Phase 6' talk"? + +&#x200B; + +Great question. However, before we discuss *that*, we must first discuss another acronym; **UMR**. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.isda.org\/2018\/07\/19\/initial-margin-for-non-centrally-cleared-derivatives-issues-for-2019-and-2020\/ ](https://preview.redd.it/2jipa0kazze91.png?width=1326&format=png&auto=webp&s=69bd2878ce887cc20d610649ab351666233ec1ea) + +&#x200B; + +In short, [Uncleared Margin Rules](https://www.isda.org/2018/07/19/initial-margin-for-non-centrally-cleared-derivatives-issues-for-2019-and-2020/) (or UMR) were created to address the OTC derivatives market--and its participants-- in the wake of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009, implementing new margin requirements for non-centrally cleared derivatives. As to not stun the market, and to allow for members to comply with what the ultimate changes of these new rules would become, these rules were "phased in". + +Starting in 2016, we are *now* at a precipice where Phase 6 will be going into effect September 1, 2022, some 4 weeks and 5 days away ; or 23 trading days, if you want to be more exact. + +&#x200B; + +According to [FinServConsulting](https://www.finservconsulting.com/2019/12/umr/), + +"***The phased thresholds for UMR means that, with each Phase, more and more In-Scope Counterparties will be affected and has been the source of some consternation among market participants***", and that "*in 2018, market regulators postponed the last two Phases (4 and 5) by one year. The Phase 4 compliance date was originally September 2018 and was moved to September 2020. The Phase 5 compliance date moved from September 2020 to September 2021*", and "*in addition to the notional thresholds, IM is required to be posted between counterparties where there is a consolidated threshold of $50mn USD or $50mn EUR*". + +**TLDR**: Going back to September of 2016, a new set of initial margin rules came into effect. Because the first phase had had the largest AANA threshold--set at $3 trillion--there were few counterparties who came into scope--or met the requirements--which explains why we're only really hearing about this now. + +&#x200B; + +For context, the below graph illustrates the progression of counterparties coming into scope through these phases as the UMR reuirements have changed + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/articles\/2022\/capital-efficiency-and-listed-equity-derivatives-take-center-stage-for-final-umr-phases.html ](https://preview.redd.it/5erbdzzdzze91.png?width=1114&format=png&auto=webp&s=b99583f8e6345a0cd42deb37ba7a0b3c50c2601b) + +&#x200B; + +With Phase 6 on the way, the "scope" has SIGNIFICANTLY reduced, from a staggering $3 trillion in phase 1, down to a "measly" $8 billion for US counterparties. + +&#x200B; + +We *also* know that, while [only a small number of firms have been impacted by Phases 1-4](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/navigating-uncleared-margin-rules.html#resources), the process to comply with Phases 1 - 4 was no walk in the park. + +In the conclusion of their **ISDA SIFMA Initial Margin Phase-in** white paper in July of 2018, [ISDA](https://www.isda.org/a/D6fEE/ISDA-SIFMA-Initial-Margin-Phase-in-White-Paper-July-2018.pdf) tells us "***Large dealers spent two to three years*** *building out their data, systems, and organizations to support regulatory IM calculation and maintenance* ***for 2016 Phase 1 go-live***. *In the six months prior to September 2016, the Phase 1 firms struggled* ***to finalize CSAs, custodial agreements, collateral schedules, collateral and netting opinions***\*, perfect security interests and establish accounts with custodians. These difficulties existed even though the first phase involved comparatively fewer entities (approximately 100 counterparties for each dealer)\*". + +&#x200B; + +Additionally, we know that the final phases of UMR do not get any easier \[in execution or application\], with Phase 6--which is almost exclusively buy-side focused, according to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/uncleared-margin-rules-what-you-need-to-know/)\--expected to bring its own challenges. + +[ISDA](https://www.isda.org/a/D6fEE/ISDA-SIFMA-Initial-Margin-Phase-in-White-Paper-July-2018.pdf) tells us "*The final phases of IM phase-in pose a substantial challenge for market participants, third-party service providers and the market as a whole. Readiness requires detailed discussion and close collaboration across firms, regulators and other stakeholders in an extremely timely manner*". + +[ISDA](https://www.isda.org/a/YPngE/BNY-Mellon-Custody-Documents-Available-on-ISDA-Create-Press-Release.pdf) *also* tells us “*Phase six will undoubtedly be a challenge for our entire industry*..." + +&#x200B; + +# A look at the Phases. And, no. We're not talking the moon... not yet, anyways.. wink + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.finservconsulting.com\/2019\/12\/umr\/ ](https://preview.redd.it/zpvs8p2kzze91.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=61a72e2bee2afda8d463dce2df28effd2ccca036) + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.isda.org\/a\/D6fEE\/ISDA-SIFMA-Initial-Margin-Phase-in-White-Paper-July-2018.pdf ](https://preview.redd.it/zyr67qzlzze91.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cd1beec0d5bc53e8e5247dd854fd80d60c221f6) + +&#x200B; + +# That all seems pretty intense, but.. What does it mean? + +&#x200B; + +Recall from our key terms earlier that AANA is used to determine if a firm is in scope. Once a determination of whether or not someone is "in scope"--which could be assets managers, banks, hedge funds, corporations, pension funds, family offices, etc--the firm is now required to comply with UMR Phase 6. + +Once September 1st comes around, some **775 counterparties, with an excess of 5,400 relationships** will be at risk of being in scope for UMR Phase 6, which means--and this is where I *may* misinterpret something in translation, so someone please correct if I am wrong--once a threshold is agreed to--presumably, this means, once a counterparty enters into an agreement or a transaction that falls under these guidelines--counterparties need exchange initial margin when the $50 million threshold is exceeded. Recall from earlier that initial margin is the percentage of the purchase price of a security that must be covered by cash or collateral when using a margin account. + +According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/uncleared-margin-rules-what-you-need-to-know/), "t*he main challenge faced by traders is staying beneath the $/€50 million initial margin threshold,* ***since exceeding that threshold comes with significant costs and cumbersome legal and custodian requirements***". + +&#x200B; + +# Who is subject to U.S. non-cleared margin regulations? + +&#x200B; + +[A party trading derivatives products covered by these rules may be subject to requirements to exchange variation margin (VM) and IM.](https://www.isda.org/a/mUFTE/AANACalculationUS_4.6.21.pdf) + +"*In general, the U.S. rules apply directly to registered swap dealers (SDs) and major swap participants and indirectly to “financial end users”. If a financial end user has an AANA of in-scope, non-cleared derivatives transactions greater than USD 8 billion, then the IM requirements will apply (in addition to VM). (The U.S. rules use the term “material swaps exposure” to refer to an AANA greater than USD 8 billion.*)" + +&#x200B; + +# More on margin. + +&#x200B; + +[CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/navigating-uncleared-margin-rules.html#case) provides us a nice standardized initial margin (IM) schedule; Seen below. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/education\/navigating-uncleared-margin-rules.html#case ](https://preview.redd.it/czhpq25qzze91.png?width=540&format=png&auto=webp&s=08482214bf8fe195366a2106b5d469a732f65e80) + +&#x200B; + +# This "AANA" seems pretty important. How do you even come up with that number? + +&#x200B; + +[ISDA](https://www.isda.org/a/mUFTE/AANACalculationUS_4.6.21.pdf) provides the 5 following basic steps: + +1. Identify all the legal entities that are part of your consolidated group – each a “margin affiliate” or “affiliate”, as defined in the relevant U.S. rules. +2. Identify the uncleared transactions in all AANA covered products for each of the entities in your consolidated group for each relevant business day during the AANA calculation period. +3. Calculate the total notional amount of AANA covered products identified in Step 2 for each relevant business day during the AANA calculation period. +4. Calculate the AANA. +5. Notify your counterparties. + +&#x200B; + +However, a more robust 7 steps to calculations AANA--covered in "Guide to Initial Margin AANA Calculations--can be found [here](https://go.cloudmargin.com/hubfs/Guide_AANA%20Calculations_2021.pdf?utm_source=im_page&utm_medium=aana_guide&utm_campaign=cloudmargin_content&utm_content=im_resources). + +&#x200B; + +# What kind of derivatives are in scope? + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/education\/navigating-uncleared-margin-rules.html#tab3Minimize ](https://preview.redd.it/lxuqgj4vzze91.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed1635df0ac1382016292f2bc82502df511d255b) + +&#x200B; + +The above list is not exhaustive, however, for a more complete listing of "What's in scope?", click [here](https://www.isda.org/a/NsWgE/ISDA-In-Scope-Products-Chart_UnclearedMargin_2022June9_distribution.pdf). + +&#x200B; + +# This all seems pretty involved. I bet it's going to be difficult and cumbersome. + +&#x200B; + +Correct. In fact, [FinServConsulting](https://www.finservconsulting.com/2019/12/umr/) made a nice handy infographic with what they see as some of the biggest challenges. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.finservconsulting.com\/2019\/12\/umr\/ ](https://preview.redd.it/fywh8i1zzze91.png?width=914&format=png&auto=webp&s=941769a7db811ab85064cc6e0182dba46e468b12) + +&#x200B; + +# ISDA's [white paper](https://www.isda.org/a/D6fEE/ISDA-SIFMA-Initial-Margin-Phase-in-White-Paper-July-2018.pdf) on the subject even has lots to say about the difficulties around UMR and provides some caution for newly in-scope counterparties + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR**: Preparing for, complying with, and executing proper IM under the new UMR framework will be extremely difficult in the *BEST* of situations and conditions. Those who were not proactive and started late and/or have not yet started......will be up a creek with no paddle should they exceed thresholds and get Marge knocking on the door + +&#x200B; + +* **Larger institutions** brought into scope for IM **in earlier phases were able to absorb the implementation timeline**, build and costs of compliance **in a manner that NISCs for the final phases may not** +* Considering the significant and far-reaching preparations required for the final stages of IM phase-in, NISCs, custodians, middleware providers, counterparty swap dealers and regulators, among others, must engage in immediate dialogue and planning. **Even with the prompt development of implementation plans, effective compliance may not prove achievable for many NISCs**. +* Material operational enhancements will be required, including: in-scope trade identification, synchronization of IM calculations for operational requirements (e.g., time zone effects, **collateral delivery cutoff times, T+1 settlement**), modified workflow related to the implementation, associated testing of the ISDA Standard Initial Margin Model or ISDA SIMM (SIMM) and grid-based calculators, collateral management and funding, standard risk file creation and dispute management processes and collateral funding/management at segregated custodial accounts +* Should NISCs delay final preparations, they will require the attention of key infrastructure components (e.g., dealers, custodians, middleware vendors and consultants) at the same time, congesting industry resources and creating compliance bottlenecks +* Each NISC must develop the capability to identify which trades in a trading relationship are subject to regulatory IM and which are not. The task is complex, particularly when layered upon the already existing calculations for VM (inclusive of tracking exempt legacy portfolios) +* Even with careful preparation and proper resourcing, onboarding will be congested, and firms will face multiple bottlenecks considering the number of participants seeking to exchange regulatory-compliant IM +* **To meet** regulatory IM **requirements**, **NISCs will likely require new and flexible sources of liquidity**. The amount of **collateral** required to be **posted** to and **by NISCs may be substantial** regardless of their IM calculation methodology... +* **The form of collateral can raise as many issues** as the amount of collateral. **Custodians** in the US **are reluctant to accept cash**...**If cash is widely adopted**, however, **it creates complications**. Some NISCs may prefer to post securities which they have on hand, such as equities or corporate bonds. **Equities and corporate bonds, however, may present problems** for the receiving party....**Custodians, swap dealers and NISCs may have trouble conforming to the myriad of regulations** governing non-sovereign security collateral...**Securities may also pose difficulties** in that they are often subject to settlement cycles which may exceed applicable margin settlement requirements +* Phase 1 preparations went to the wire, with many firms working to complete documentation right up to the start date. **Even with the application of appropriate resources, many NISCs will be unable to achieve compliance by their relevant phase-in date** + +&#x200B; + +# What are some of the steps involved for NISC's? + +&#x200B; + +[ISDA](https://www.isda.org/2020/09/16/getting-ready-for-initial-margin-the-steps-to-take/) provides a short--but not exhaustive--list that NISC's will need to check at *least* twice in preparation for IM + +**STEP 1:** Identify in-scope entities early + +**STEP 2:** Make early disclosures to counterparties + +**STEP 3:** Exchange information on compliance + +**STEP 4:** Identify special cases + +**STEP 5:** Establish custodial relationships + +**STEP 6:** Prepare for compliance + +**STEP 7:** Negotiate/execute documentation + +**STEP 8:** Finalize preparations + +\---------------- + +**EDIT**: Shoutout to u/[**shart\_leakage**](https://www.reddit.com/user/shart_leakage/) for pointing out something I completely overlooked making this DD. Prior to her time at ISDA, [Tara Kruse](https://www.linkedin.com/in/tara-kruse-8bb33a8/) was a Managing Director and **Global Head of Credit Derivatives Documentation** at **BEAR STEARNS**!! From 2000 to **2007**!!!! + +[https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/tara-kruse-8bb33a8\/ ](https://preview.redd.it/0ooo24jhg1f91.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cede2bbbdc078af09da3060e2144e02f75672f1) + +\--------------- + +EDIT # 2: Thanks to u/[**cowboy\_up\_1970**](https://www.reddit.com/user/cowboy_up_1970/) for the great idea of adding ISDA Members to this DD. Something else I also did not think of. List can be found [here](https://www.isda.org/membership/isda-members/). +**This is not financial nor investment advice. These are ideas and opinions for information purposes only.** + +*This post will read bottom to top. It's easier for people to refresh the page and see edits at the top* + +**Historical supports and resistances:** + +116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 156.5, 162.5, 165.5, 172, 174, 176.5, 179, 180.5, 182, 183.5, 184.5, 186, 187.5, 190.5, 192, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 226, 230, 234, 243, 250, 253, 256.5 + +**Edit 18 4:01PM:** + +Closing around 167, up 18.45%. What a great day! + +See you all tomorrow. + +**Edit 17 3:54PM:** + +18m of deep ITM Calls showing up. Possible tiny tiny dip at market open tomorrow? + +https://preview.redd.it/9b33how327t61.png?width=2464&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9bc582056b1d2e4c9debeac3b41501269db7c14 + +**Edit 16 3:17PM:** + +8 Million dollars worth of Puts. Unknown if it was bought or sold since it is Mid. + +https://preview.redd.it/avifw9ufv6t61.png?width=2463&format=png&auto=webp&s=219336c48d11a2f5fb4a9fbd31faa4f2de240abd + +**Edit 15 3:02PM:** + +Power hour stream: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C14ZXYdl9h4&ab\_channel=WardenElite](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C14ZXYdl9h4&ab_channel=WardenElite) + +**Edit 14 2:39PM:** + +Larger volume on the 200 strikes. + +[https:\/\/www.optionsonar.com\/unusual-option-activity\/GME\/latest-trades](https://preview.redd.it/9ypei3noo6t61.png?width=2435&format=png&auto=webp&s=f35eb89ba2a43a59b9f91672fbe5999cff46d019) + +**Edit 13 1:54PM:** + +Starting to slip through the 162.5 support. + +https://preview.redd.it/51d4g06og6t61.png?width=2149&format=png&auto=webp&s=3014d3b89ca9ae0945e6f63056b3061bcd20fe68 + +**Edit 12 1:17PM:** + +\----------> + +Let's see if power hour gives us some more action. + +**Edit 11 11:34AM:** + +Get on stream! Won't be updating the post for a bit, things getting hectic. + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGw9X0eu\_c0&ab\_channel=WardenElite](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGw9X0eu_c0&ab_channel=WardenElite) + +**Edit 10 11:24AM:** + +171.5 likely. + +**Edit 9 11:21AM:** + +Options updates: Lots of new Calls rolling in. + +[https:\/\/www.optionsonar.com\/unusual-option-activity\/GME\/latest-trades](https://preview.redd.it/5p2bgf2ep5t61.png?width=2460&format=png&auto=webp&s=0759bfa9ccbd4af7381f7f4849b70e0265474657) + +**Edit 8 11:08AM:** + +171.5 perhaps. + +**Edit 7 11:02AM:** + +**We goin up.** Broke through the resistance of the wedge already. + +https://preview.redd.it/7al0cbdul5t61.png?width=2135&format=png&auto=webp&s=269734dcb45558efd78dcd8d2f09bfbea2a30a4c + +**Edit 6 10:59AM:** + +KEEP CLIMBING MOAR! + +**Edit 5 10:44AM:** + +KEEP CLIMBING + +**Edit 4 10:25AM:** + +More sideways trading zZZ. + +Couple small Call orders went in today. + +[https:\/\/www.optionsonar.com\/unusual-option-activity\/GME\/latest-trades](https://preview.redd.it/bh70wjrgf5t61.png?width=2487&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ced5fdc67525624aecaf0df7c9cca810bbb3385) + +**Edit 3 9:45AM:** + +Bit of a pullback with a hammer candle marking a local dip. + +https://preview.redd.it/4z1gp90885t61.png?width=2145&format=png&auto=webp&s=33e6a9e84e51f4589253b318bf8b055d84483925 + +**Edit 2 9:36AM:** + +Volume is enough to support this trend. Tested the 156.5 resistance. Possible room to go higher. + +https://preview.redd.it/agejolij65t61.png?width=2142&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce0449c59a98a6ef0876eb5fd12d2a89ff29d0a3 + +**Edit 1 9:31AM:** + +348k volume first minute candle. Another low volume day? + +# Begin Reading Here + +Gooooooood morning my space astronauts! + +Let's cut straight to the chase. + +We're up in the premarket. A bit overextended so don't be surprised by a small market open dip. + +https://preview.redd.it/ajlfps0g35t61.png?width=2139&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb77822227b2a5267ed43f7ab2da2ddb0da056e3 + +My gut feeling says that we're nearing the beginning of something big. This low volume will eventually go away and we'll some more wilder swings later in the week. Perhaps we can get a slow steady climb today. + +Stream: + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGw9X0eu\_c0&ab\_channel=WardenElite](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGw9X0eu_c0&ab_channel=WardenElite) +It is easy to have a high savings rate if you make a lot of money. Curious if you know people who are high earners but have a pretty bad savings rate, and if yes what are their lifestyles like? +I’ve done (and updated) analysis on everything you can redeem Qantas and Velocity points for – e.g. flights, upgrades, taxes / surcharges, online store items, hotels, car hire, charitable donations etc and calculated the $ (or more like cent) value of each. A summary for each is below + +Don’t want to force anyone to read through it but if you do and can give any feedback it’d be much appreciated! + +&#x200B; + +**Qantas:** [https://laymansterms.com.au/how-much-is-a-qantas-point-worth/](https://laymansterms.com.au/how-much-is-a-qantas-point-worth/) + +TLDR: Classic Rewards flight bookings are the best use of your points with a value of 2c – 8c per point (all AUD). Avoid using points to pay for car hire, hotels, taxes and 3rd party fees, anything from the Qantas Online Store and “Points Plus Pay” flight payments as you’ll only get 0.2c – 0.7c per point. + +If you have Platinum Frequent Flyer status or above, use your points for flight upgrades to get between 4c – 11c per Qantas point. + +&#x200B; + +**Velocity:** [https://laymansterms.com.au/how-much-is-a-velocity-point-worth/](https://laymansterms.com.au/how-much-is-a-velocity-point-worth/) + +TLDR: “Reward Seat” flight bookings are going to be the best option and give you a value of 1.6c – 5c per point. Avoid using points to pay for hotels, taxes and 3rd party fees, anything from the Virgin Australia Online Store or “Any Seat” flights. Otherwise, you’ll only get a value of 0.2c – 0.6c per point. + +If you have Gold or Platinum status, use your points for flight upgrades to get between 9c – 24c in value per Velocity point. +Alright, I'm ready for the regular r/cc massive downvote, let's go. + +Everywhere I see "you should diversify", "don't gamble all in one coin", et caetera. + +The thing is, whatever coin you pick (if it's not just a hypecoin); the token is still in its infancy stage on the market; and will mostly follow blindly granddaddy bitcoin footsteps in his charts. + +In ten another years, yeah, we might see charts going their own ways, but as for now, diversification won't do much for you. In the cryptosphere that is. You may aswell get someting that offers you some sort of stacking rewards while you're at it, if you're in for the long haul, with a project you believe in. + +Now if you tell me that you got some stocks on the side; a pile of cash or precious metals, THAT is diversification, and doesn't follow the same old chart. + +Making it 50/50 between two cryptos, or more, won't save you in the bear. + +That's all I have to say for today. Bring on your guns, I am ready! + +Have a nice day, in all cases :) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Just discovered my spouse (of over 20 years+) has a secret bank account with a fair amount of money in it (ie a brand new luxury car amount), along with various other shareholdings and investments. + +Bit of background - we have contributed equally to everything (mortgage, bills, living costs). Spouse earns slightly more (about 15%) so as a proportion of income I am now contributing a bit more. I'm guessing the slightly more amount is being saved in the account. + +Not sure how I feel about it and wanted to get others thoughts. It does feel like a kick in the guts as pretty much all my savings, bonuses etc were put into the mortgage/investments so I never put aside any for myself. What is legally in my name is fully disclosed and can be accessed by either of us. I currently have a couple of grand in my own name for personal hobbies/expenses/ATM access. Around 90% of my pay goes to a joint account. + +We are pretty financially literate so its not as though it would not be obvious the opportunity costs of holding the money in cash. I thought we were very open about finances but clearly there are some (quite material) pieces missing. + +Do I start putting aside some for myself going forward ? Is this a normal thing ? I am not after relationship advice but rather ideas on how others manage their finances vs joint finances. + +Thanks all. + +EDIT - Thanks for all the comments - lots to think about. I looked back and turns out I am a better saver than I gave myself credit for. In the past 5 years I have put about $125k extra into the joint account. Makes sense I suppose as I always just have the few grand in my everyday account and as it builds up it gets transferred to the joint account in addition to the larger monthly transfer on payday. Time to save up for my own Tesla ! +https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ + +Press release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm + +> The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent +in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in May, the U.S. +Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was the largest 1-month change +since June 2008 when the index rose 1.0 percent. Over the last 12 months, the +all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment; this was the +largest 12-month increase since a 5.4-percent increase for the period ending +August 2008. + +> The index for used cars and trucks continued to rise sharply, increasing 10.5 +percent in June. This increase accounted for more than one-third of the +seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index increased 0.8 percent in +June, a larger increase than the 0.4-percent increase reported for May. The +energy index increased 1.5 percent in June, with the gasoline index rising 2.5 +percent over the month. + +> The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in June after +increasing 0.7 percent in May. Many of the same indexes continued to increase, +including used cars and trucks, new vehicles, airline fares, and apparel. The +index for medical care and the index for household furnishings and operations +were among the few major component indexes which decreased in June. +Ryan Cohen buys BBBY shares and calls in March 22. + +Apes know about this for ages. + +Some apes buy BBBY the weeks after. + +BBBY gets hyped on 2xUSB. + +BBBY gets flagged "The new Gamestop". + +Cramer hates on BBBY (inverse Cramer kicks in). + +Ryan Cohens filings and holdings get hyped on 2xUSB. + +BBBY skyrockets. + +Ryan Cohen suddenly is the saviour of 2xUSB. + +Ryan Cohen sells. + +2xUSB gets spammed with posts that Ryan Cohen betrayed everyone and "apes" should stick it to him by selling their GME. (Yeah 'cause we all are a bunch of kids who got their sweets taken from them. You think investing is a damn game?) + +Ryan Cohen gets reported to the SEC and is being called for a subpoena on the same day. + + +Now i don't know how many crayons you ate today but this shit sounds like an obvious play to discredit Ryan Cohen and Gamestop shareholders. +They fucking shorted Gamestop right at the time BBBY fell to make it look like "apes" were mad and sold both. + +I'll tell you what. I made money with BBBY, i got out when i should have and every penny is going straight into GME and DRSd. Everyone knows 2xUSB is full of bots, most of the posts hyping up BBBY were new accounts. + +Losing faith in Gamestop? Today convinced me even more those crooks don't care for anyone on this planet but themselves. Threw a bunch of investors under the bus just to form a false narrative. +The extra fed unemployment benefits ended September 1st. The stimulus checks were months and months a go, mortgage forbearance is over. Most states have ended the eviction ban. + +Why haven’t workers returned? Are asset prices so high that people are tapping equity from homes/stocks so they don’t have to work anymore? I find this hard to believe for working class folks who historically don’t own many assets. +Take r/CryptoMoonShots for example. This one of the Top-Posts. I censorded the coins so ppl don't get sucked in. + +https://preview.redd.it/ovpfg9o1tgw61.png?width=1116&format=png&auto=webp&s=eccabd50708ffec7a95c88c5a420349874277ac0 + +950 Upvotes and a shitload of awards. Was on the frontpage. The comments? Literally everyone is saying it's a shitcoin. So why is it awarded that much? **Bots.** There is so much to make in this market if you are a scammer, that buying bots and letting them guild and upvote your post is worth it. + +Also the flair: Everyone can post that "solid fundamentals" flair. Even better: There are only 4 flairs of which 2 are "solid fundamentals" so if you don't tag your coin yourself as shitcoin it's basically automatically a coin with "solid fundamentals". The sub is inherrent trash. + +**Stay the fuckt out of Moonshot subreddits/Discordservers. Don't believe a word you read there. You WILL get scammed otherwise.** +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +What a week it was last week... I don't know about the rest of you Apes, but the weekend provided me with some well earned rest from the *constant* tit jacking and salivating I have been experiencing in recent days. Perhaps my memory is playing tricks with me, but I honestly don't think there has been a period since this whole saga began that there has been **so much happening** around our beloved stonk, that right NOW! + +This post is intended to build on the fine work of u/Mattindeed in his weekend [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sm1ain/did_you_blink_3_months_of_news_just_happened_all/), that had a brief look at the various pieces of news that came out in the second half of last week. As we wait for the next round to begin on Monday, of what is sure to be more intensive mammary titillating action, I want to go through the various types of **WALLS** that seem to be closing in on the Short Hedgefucks at the moment. Actually I collated this for myself, so that I could get my head around it all, but thought it might be helpful for some of you other Apes as well. So without further ado, let's begin... + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 1: GameStop-Immutable X-Loopring can trigger MOASS by organic growth** + +Of course *the* biggest news of last week! After what felt like aeons, GameStop finally made good on "actions not words" by announcing a partnership with Immutable X. Very quickly Apes surmised that in fact it would be a partnership also involving Loopring as well, the full details of which may also be announced imminently. + +https://preview.redd.it/fxl1q2r3bbg81.png?width=393&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5ea2e2f4fc451da44fa9aa30760927ec541d4b7 + +The partnership would enable GameStop, Indomitable X and Loopring to dominate the NFT marketplace for both games and artistic creations. With not just the current size of this industry, but the anticipated future growth within it, it could very well mean that - when accurate price discovery is allowed again - the GME share price will naturally balloon over the next few years. For a great hypothesis on how this could happen organically, see the excellent post by u/Doctorbuddy which conjectures how this could happen as [7 steps](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sk25bb/ryan_cohen_told_us_to_judge_him_by_his_actions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share): + +*Step 1: Build NFT Marketplace for creators and artists. This was being built for the last 8/9 months or so with Loopring as the Layer 2 protocol. This Marketplace will be a competitor to OpenSea. In early January, they opened this Marketplace up to "memelords, brands, content creators, and artists". They recently closed submissions last week. This Marketplace is ready to launch and is done.* + +*Step 2: Announce partnership with Immutable and mention Loopring as primary provider. This is the official announcement for their Gaming NFT Marketplace - a marketplace for game developers and gamers to play Ethereum based games and trade in-game NFT assets. This marketplace will use Loopring as the fiat on-ramp / off-ramp and Immutable as the Layer 2 / NFT minting protocols. This marketplace is in development. And announcement for Game Developers and Gamers was made today to apply for a grant on this marketplace - https://nft.gamestop.com/* + +*Step 3 (we are here) : Announce the acquirement of Loopring. Daniel Wang, former CEO of Loopring, just stepped down today, the exact day of the GameStop announcement. I believe that Loopring will be getting acquired by GameStop and Loopring will be integrated into the GameStop corporation, with the new CEO, Steve Guo, being named the head of this division. This will allow GameStop to control all future in house Layer 2 developments with their NFT Marketplace and have all creative control for future Layer2 projects.* + +*Step 4: Announce the build out of a decentralized exchange using Loopring technology. With Loopring acquired, GameStop will utilize these Layer2 technologies to other business areas. This I think will be one of them.* + +*Step 5: Open up the NFT Marketplace for Creators / Artists. This will be available very shortly and I believe it will be opening in Q1 2022.* + +*Step 6: Open up the NFT Marketplace for Gamers. This is the Immutable / Loopring / GameStop exchange for gamers and game developers.* + +*Step 7: Open up the decentralized exchange using Loopring's technology (later in 2022/2023).* + +So how could this lead to MOASS? Well, at some point I believe the price suppression that has been taking place for over a year now will simply become too difficult for the SHFs to continue effectively. With the growth and profits that the above marketplaces can bring to GameStop and their partners, I believe value investors will pile in over time and the share price will start to grow towards a fairer, much more elevated, valuation. When it reaches a certain level, margin calls of the SHFs could ensue so this would be the relatively serene way to trigger MOASS. + +(For those thinking that the Short Hedge Funds, Market Makers and Prime Brokers can just prevent such organic price action from taking place, my counter would be that if they had *total* control over the price then we would already be back down to a single dollar figure. The fact is that the criminal market manipulators can control the game only so much, and that includes both downwards *and* upwards action on the share price. As last January goes to show, when there is enough volume their methods gets stretched to breaking point...and I believe the FOMO created over time - similar to Tesla's run in 2020 to 2021 - would mean MOASS will come at some point as GameStop's share price increases with this particular WALL.) + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 2: GameStop has the technical means to proivde shareholders with an NFT-based dividend, the issuance of which would trigger MOASS** + +But all these new partnerships could enable far more accelerated paths to MOASS too! The potential ways this could happen were best explained by u/OGBobtheflounder not long after the announcements, in his observation that the Immutable X collaboration is actually with [GME Entertainment, LLC](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sjtzck/the_immutable_x_licensee_agreement_is_between_gme/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share): + +*The part that stuck out to me is that this partnership with Immutable X is not a direct agreement with GameStop Corp. (the parent company whose shares we all own) but rather a license agreement with "GME Entertainment, LLC". Now, GME Entertainment, LLC is not a new company or a new name, as they have had this name registered for several years. It seems that the whole NFT division that GameStop has been forming within their company has been doing business under the GME Entertainment name this whole time. So, what's the big deal? There is a juicy line in the agreement on page 3 that caught my eye...* + +*"To the extent any change of control occurs (for GME Entertainment, LLC) that results in Licensee no longer being a wholly-owned subsidiary of a publicly traded U.S. company"* + +*Uh, but why would that happen? Now, I'm not a lawyer (just a retarded engineer) and this may be absolutely normal legal language, but it seems like an interesting thing to slip in there with everything else in this section. There have been a few theories on what GameStop might one day do in order to help protect the financial interests of its investors, especially once the topic of NFTs and Blockchain came about.* + +*GameStop could issue an NFT dividend (similar to Overstock) and use it's non-fungible qualities to force shorts and synthetic shares to close out their positions since they cannot use cash as an equivalent dividend to issue to shareholders who are holding synthetics.* + +So why exactly could an NFT dividend issuance lead to MOASS? Well, here is my own post and [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q6gume/occams_razor_the_simplest_explanation_is_usually/hgbzk4v?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) from a few months ago that explains why this would be catastrophic for short sellers: + +https://preview.redd.it/4ymr6masabg81.png?width=707&format=png&auto=webp&s=ea001c9b3b28da5cc95bf32589ea7a6dcef266f1 + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 3: The 10-K filings** ***hinted*** **that a MOASS triggering share recall may be possible, but the partnership could provide the technical means to achieve this too** + +u/OGBobtheflounder's post also briefly mentions this potential MOASS trigger, although he does well to note that it is less likely than the others in this list, due to the potential legal barriers involved: + +*GameStop could recall it's shares and remove them from the DTCC and reissue them as tokens on the blockchain. This would have the same affect as the NFT dividend, but would result in all sorts of lawsuits and is probably not in the best interest of the company. The language is there in their 10-K filings, though, to go down a path where they pull their shares.* + +However the fact that an NFT-based decentralised financial exchange is in the offing does mean that removal of the stock from DTCC/Cede & Co. hands is technically possible, so this cannot be ruled out as a possible extreme measure. Note that share recalls are not carried out by a company's own decision making, but by a shareholder vote. So it is not implausible that a company whose shares are fully DRS-ed, with the vast majority of those held by retail investors who would be only too glad to see the back of the DTCC/Cede & Co., *could* be one where a majority of their shareholders vote to force such an extreme measure in a future Annual Shareholders Meeting... + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 4: GameStop spins off the NFT division to create a new company, a path which could lead to MOASS by facilitating a full share count/audit** + +Finally, u/OGBobtheflounder's post ends on another very juicy possibility: + +*GameStop could split off the NFT division of it's company into a new company. The new company would not have to issue shares on the NYSE, but instead could be publicly tradable on the blockchain using NFT tokens (since this is a main part of it's business model). Initial ownership could be distributed to existing shareowners of GME stock via NFT tokens.* + +u/Cataclysmic98 wrote about [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sjz2i3/an_nft_spinoff_for_moass_re_immutable_x_licensee/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) in some detail as well: + +*GameStop could spin off their NFT Marketplace division as a separate company with its own stock, but issued as NFT units'. Shareholders would receive an NFT 'unit(s)' for every $GME share(s) they own. Any market participant that holds a short position in GME would need to provide an NFT 'unit' for their counterfeit shares - which of course they don't have. If the NFT 'unit' is issued by GameStop in such a way that shorts cannot substitute a cash equivalent for the unit offering - the shorts will be forced to cover! R.C.'s 'Checkmate'!* + +How could this lead to MOASS being triggered? Well, to issue such tokens to existing shareholders, a proper audit and share count would be necessary in order to generate the shareholders list to whom the tokens would be issued. With the very high likelihood that this proves the existence of a vast volume of synthetic shares, a whole list of MOASS-inducing knock-on effects could ensure. Leaving aside the legal ramifications for Market Makers, SHFs etc, the FOMO buying by itself and the trading volume generated could again lead to a January 2021 level "sneeze", and with it the triggering of margin calls. + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 5: SEC Proposed Rule 87 FR 6652 prevents continued use of Swaps to hold back MOASS** + +If you thought all this humongous news from GameStop and their partners is the only bedpost throwing worthy news around, then sadly for Kenny and his cronies there's more. Much, much more... + +https://preview.redd.it/4z44qoh3gbg81.png?width=952&format=png&auto=webp&s=d20f4479f8a2788a9eff6c7af0f989bed04b836f + +The title of SEC's Proposed Rule 87 FR 6652 is self-explanatory, in that it is aimed at shutting down a number of methods the criminals have been using to stay in the game over the last year. u/Left-Anxiety-3580 broke this to this sub [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sk1hyd/only_viewed_133_times_todaythis_document_is/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) and I think a number of the comments to that post are very enlightening: + +https://preview.redd.it/sz065xq8hbg81.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=344bd8c94da16f4062404d98218737710b748c65 + +https://preview.redd.it/wanpxr0ohbg81.png?width=706&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a3b19999baeaa340a460bee93d77f670df78cb5 + +https://preview.redd.it/jnzvjb72hbg81.png?width=622&format=png&auto=webp&s=079dd36c4d8208478c0feb0d89a4aa25b577cd63 + +This proposed rule is now open to comments from the public until March 21st, and there is the potential that if it gets passed without radical amendments after that date, the main method the SHFs/MMs/PBs have been using to hide the short interest may well be no longer possible. If you're wondering how they have been doing this, the following diagram in u/Zinko83's [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qmtt6q/volatility_variance_dispersion_oh_my/) shows how they use these swaps. As per u/Criand's easier-to-understand [summary](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qvtmxm/clearing_up_some_things_about_options_and_how_it/) of it: *"Open up Variance Swaps to bet on the volatility in the stock, and to use them as insurance against their short position. They then sell a replicating portfolio (it replicates the swap with options) into the market. Doing this hedges against the swap."* + +https://preview.redd.it/9ohs2r6u8cg81.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=e45ebac5e12f94d3741644734fa0a4857fa9fd5f + +Should fuckery of this kind not be possible, the SHFs/MMs/PBs lose what has probably mean their main method of hiding their short positions, along with manipulating the price and preventing it from increasing to a level where margin calls could come into effect. Additionally, as u/LasVegasWasFun also [speculated](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sk4l29/do_we_get_to_see_whats_inside_the_swaps_on_feb/), the first of the changes connected with this rule may be in effect as soon as a week from today: + +https://preview.redd.it/paubpbtwibg81.png?width=737&format=png&auto=webp&s=099b24caeee9564f806ce45610af3ebc9952f54a + +The very fact that it may be possible to see what volume of Swaps trading has taken place could again have various knock-on effects that lead to MOASS, in my opinion. If as expected this shows massive abuse of these derivatives for the purposes of hiding short positions, not only could there by legal ramifications, but again I think the chances of FOMO buying of the stock would be very high. Once again, the conditions that came into being in January 2021 could very well repeat, due to the prospect of the regulators *finally* taking some action (or at least preparing to take action) post March 21st. + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 6: SEC and DoJ investigation could lead to SHFs being shut down, their short positions being force closed, and thus potentially leading to the MOASS** + +Around the same time as GameStop were making their announcement and the proposed SEC rule above came out, news started to also trickle through about the progress of a Department of Justice (supported by the SEC) probe into how SHFs may be violating securities laws. As per an [article](https://www.ft.com/content/08899017-2994-4990-84e8-4a6efb7c57c6) publised by the Financial Times: + +https://preview.redd.it/am1t5fu2bcg81.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=2bfdd275105cbf8f8679af7d804a65f1ce487f56 + +There is no telling how long the probe may take, but as per u/alexandrosdimo sharing this news [tweet](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/skips9/umm_what_is_happening_is_this_why_buildings_are/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share), the FBI (which is a part of the DoJ) seem to be taking steps to obtain relevant evidence before the storage facilities they are being held in have the possiblity of going up in highly coincidental infernos... + +https://preview.redd.it/gdb0tovzbcg81.png?width=736&format=png&auto=webp&s=9aada59e38a6001b002b4e7dd1ac3d9b209b911b + +So how could all this trigger MOASS? We know for sure that least a subset of the few dozen (so far) SHFs under investigation have been prominently involved, at one time or another, with the GameStop saga. Be that Melvin Capital, Citron Research or others, the paper trail may lead to them and other firms - including those currently holding short positions in the stock - facing the prospect of being shut down for securities regulation infringements. It may only take one or two to fall, triggering forced closing of positions, to potentially start a domino effect that also affects all the others...and with that the MOASS could be triggered very, very quickly... + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 7: Shorting is becoming both difficult to carry out and a LOT more expensive than even a couple of weeks ago** + +There have been numerous posts in the last few days about the borrow rate for GameStop stock constantly increasing e.g. [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/shu5qs/update_questrade_borrow_rate_up_to_510_percent/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) post by u/chris2155: + +https://preview.redd.it/1bbyal3mfcg81.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5e595fa2d7a61436f9d606010d2a63acc4c2666 + +Not only that, but it appears that the volume of shares available for short sellers to borrow is also dwindling. For example, this post by u/Myid0810 indicated that even on a major brokerage platform such as that of IBKR, stock available to borrow actually fell to [zero](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sjnmcl/ibkr_shows_gme_as_not_shortable_been_tracking/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) towards the end of last week: + +https://preview.redd.it/mzjjdfo7gcg81.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a3765ce852e2526139922bc152c588583b15467 + +So why should this matter, and how could it lead to MOASS? Well, here is an excerpt from an [article](https://www.investopedia.com/short-sellers-lose-usd5-05-billion-in-bet-against-gamestop-5097616#:~:text=Due%20to%20the%20lack%20of,a%20prime%20short%20squeeze%20target) on Investopedia that I found from a year ago, in the run-up to the sneeze, that explains why this is very relevant, indeed: + +https://preview.redd.it/yy14p1wigcg81.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=3101c16d509cec997bc2013886d1b23aaea49c85 + +Now we are not yet at that level of borrow rate... But if the shares available to borrow keep falling, then the borrow rate will keep on increasing too. The 5.10% it may have reached in the last few days actually represents a 500%+ increase from what it was just a couple of weeks ago, and should this trend continue then such January 2021 percentages could become a reality the SHFs have to face up to once again to keep their short positions going. And once again, should the one holding GameStop short positions with the least access to capital fail to keep up with these payments, then they could fail a margin call and by that start a MOASS-triggering chain reaction. + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 8: Utilisation approaching 100% again - something that last happened in January 2021** + +This WALL is related to the preceding one, in that 'utilisation' is calculated by the number of shares that end up getting borrowed by short sellers. As per a definition by Ortex, utilisation is: + +*"The* *ratio* *between the number of shares on loan across all outstanding loans in the wholesale market and the number of shares available for lending at lending programs. 0% means that no shares have been borrowed or lent at these lending programs;* *100% means that all shares available to borrow or lend at a lending program have, in fact, been lent**. This does not represent the number of shares listed on the exchange that have been lent, because not all listed shares are available for lending; it indicates how much of the supply actually available for lending has been lent."* + +In their awesome [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sk0ygr/gme_share_loaning_utilization_is_an_important/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) about how the utilisation rate is now up to around 90%, levels not seen since January 2021, u/kainbeats shows a graphic visualisation of how we are coming out of the "dip" for this and getting back to extremely high levels once more: + +https://preview.redd.it/cwkbrwwwjcg81.png?width=992&format=png&auto=webp&s=29de33479c2f78ee333d553149ae1fdee53f5ccc + +So we are seemingly in the position now where the borrow fee rate is going up and up...but the SHFs are still continuing to borrow a ever shrinking supply of shares out on loan! In that same post, there is a very compelling demonstration of how a sustained high utilisation rate could have a big impact on share price: the big run-up in May that Popcorn experienced (this is not to promote that particular stock, purely to demonstrate how utilisation could have such an effect): + +https://preview.redd.it/lv932mktkcg81.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f700d672313cb0a3b1ed7d4e6c7b52a90ba5c1d + +I think the third chart here is just brilliant, because it shows a longer historical record of GME utilisation, and I think the assertion that "utilisation being at 100% could trigger a large share price run-up" looks more and more convincing based on this: + +https://preview.redd.it/ef38wuzglcg81.png?width=987&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ba8361859dfc1bce00322354b65ba26dcf518cf + +u/kainbeats goes on to speculate the reasons for why the utilisation rate is increasing once again - I will leave this to you to decide which is more likely to be accurate: + +*This can be due to two reasons:* + +1. *Investors (generally brokers/funds/institutions) are no longer loaning their shares (unlikely that this suddenly changed after December, although it is possible that large holders recalled shares in preparation for the upcoming votes), or;* +2. *DRS is removing shares from these loanable pools, especially brokers, and is thus ramping up the pressure yet again. As utilization goes higher and higher, it will get more and more difficult to obtain shares to loan and short. And GME may see another sustained price increase, no different than the one leading up to January. Jacked!* + +Whatever the reason may be, with the current upward trend in utilisation, it may not be too long before we are back at 100%. If that is the case, then based on the past instances of when this occurred, there is a possibility of another big run-up in price - once again, a potential trigger for the MOASS to launch. + +&#x200B; + +**WALL 9: Ortex Short Squeeze Signal flared again...** + +I am going to finish with a short ~~sweet~~ squeeze (pun intended) [WALL](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sj1bzn/ortex_short_squeeze_signal_fired_today_everytime/) from u/enfiniti27 about this: + +https://preview.redd.it/tsgy7v5dpcg81.png?width=736&format=png&auto=webp&s=499dff914ed04c642ecce014a0ba78eff4cebfe5 + +If you are wondering what this is, here is a helpful comment from u/Independent-Bend-333's that gives some detail of what this signal is based on: + +https://preview.redd.it/8mtdhvu9qcg81.png?width=674&format=png&auto=webp&s=a79aa8334ca20fe0edc1b63f6069a2f343f41a2c + +It should also be noted that the algorithm looks at the historical record of past short squeezes, to identify when the conditions make a squeeze on a certain stock likely. The only instance in the recent past when Ortex's signal proved to be incorrect was when GameStop issued additional stock, but otherwise it has had a very high success rate for predicting such moves on even our beloved, idiosyncratic stonk. If we are to take this latest signal flaring at face value, then yet another potential trigger for the inevitable MOASS! + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR:** There are a huge number of WALLS closing in from various angles to the increasingly powerless Short Hedgefucks. We don't do dates on this sub, but personally I feel like the hay is wet with kerosene and a number of burning matches are just waiting to be dropped any day now. And if one of these WALLS doesn't amount to much, there are so many others just ready to take their place. **I have named nine in this list, but perhaps you Apes can point to WALL Number 10 too?** + As an amateur options trader still learning the ropes, it seems to me that the recurring theme in all investing advice/strategies is the same: directionality is king. + +If you know what direction an asset is going with a high degree of confidence, you can make as much money as your capital will allow. If you know an asset is going down, you can short/puts, if you know an asset is going up, you can buy/go long on calls, if you know an asset is going to trade sideways, you can iron butterfly, etc. All of the well known strategies are all just different ways of making the most of your thesis about the direction. + +BUT, when it comes time to talk about how we know what we know about the directionality of a particular asset - that's when things get squirrelly. + +For all the talk of indicators (EMAs, SMAs, Bollinger Bands, Volume Price Analysis, Support and Resistance, etc. etc.) it really seems like at the end of the day some traders just seem to correctly guess direction based on how they \*feel\* about it. Even the YT videos where people break down their strategies and rules, it seems like there's still an awful lot of subjectivity at play. On this sub, when someone mentions having gone up 100% year over year, they're inevitably asked what their strategy is and they'll inevitably answer with something sort of vague like, 'I do naked calls, I just look for good entry points and then get out when I see a good exit'. + +So, really, how do you make good guesses at direction? Is it just years of losing money until you pick up on the rhythm of a particular stock? Do you have a go-to set of indicators/rules? Do you just watch what I do and do the opposite (always a smart play)? Or some other thing most of us have never even thought of? +I want to send an email to a real estate brokerage to make a deal with them. I don’t want to conclude the email with “ so do we have a deal?” I want to sound professional. What should I say? +Note: sorry if I’m posting this in the wrong subreddit +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Some people say the reason for all this inflation is because of supply-chain disruptions, others say it is because we printed more money, and others say it is because of corporate greed and price gouging. + +Regardless of what the reason is, how will this all end? The cost of food, gas, and housing have gone up at a rate not seen in 40 years. The pandemic is fading away, but the war between Russia and Ukraine is still raging, which has driven up the price of a lot of things like wheat, oil, and fertilizer. + +The Bank of Canada has been raising the interest rates to combat inflation, and some say this will cause a recession. I figured this would bring down the price of a lot of things, but also cause a surge in unemployment as businesses go broke, which sounds like just as bad of an issue. + +Without being overly optimistic or pessimistic, how do you believe it will really end? Will inflation and the cost of living actually go down, or do you see this as permanent? If permanent, how do you believe the people of this country are going to respond to it? Could we be seeing massive protests in the coming times? +I am 30 years old, opened my first credit card in 2010, and my debt has ballooned to over 10k. my debt is spread out over 5 credit cards that have an average rate of 21%, with the total monthly minimum payment pushing upwards of $300. + +I make under 25k a year, and I have been unable to move these cards down from their maximum limit even though they have been maxxed out for years at this point with me only making minimum payments. + +This month I simply cannot make my payments, I'm overwhelmed and my family is advising me to just let the cards go to collections. + +What are my options? File for Bankruptcy? I've heard the credit companies could sue me, do I need a lawyer? + + + +edit: I realize this thread got way more attention than I expected, but please read the other replies before adding yet another comment that says "did you try a balance transfer or a loan?" yes. yes I did try that. +The reason I’m so extremely confident of this statement is simple. +Crypto has use cases, and teach crypto to the young, up and coming working class will most definitely make them integrate these use cases later on when they’re full integrated into the working force. + +We can already see some examples of some of these universities like MIT and UBC which already have blockchain technology courses that can be accessed online. + +Other crypto projects are also bridging the gap with some like BitDAO funding autonomous entities like EduDAO which in return helps tech students become Web3 builders fully integrated into the blockchain world. + +And while this is all great to see, it is still something that’s somewhat niche and not many are projects and universities are hopping onto. + +But believe me, if crypto and blockchain become normalized with the you youngsters and becomes familiar to them, crypto would go mainstream in no time. This would lead to crypto being integrated into our everyday life as these students apply the use cases they learned about in university. +We all love monthly dividends. However, we often find monthly payers where the underlying asset depreciates over time. These are some of my favorite ETFs that pay monthly that also appreciate. + +- SPHD +- PEY +- DGRW +- SPLV +- OUSA +- DHS + +I have all these except DHS. + +Monthly non-ETFs for me include + +- O +- STAG +- AGNC + +my question to all of you is what would your argument be against allocating a large portion of your portfolio in these monthly payers that also appreciate over time? Idk my goal is to kind of supplement/ replace income eventually and it seems a lot more doable if you were getting paid monthly vs quarterly. Thoughts?? + +Also, I'd love to hear of any monthly ETFs that are your favorite or non-ETFs as well!! +How are people still bullish on Tesla? Last year they did 31B in revenue and < 1B in earnings. Facebook (Meta) did 86B in revenue and 29B in earnings. Facebooks profits were almost more than Tesla’s total revenue. FB profit margins are far better than TSLA, they have much more cash on hand and a far better balance sheet when looking at total assets over liabilities. If you’re still buying shares of Tesla or holding please explain why because I just don’t understand it. I do think Tesla will be a great company over the next 10 years but I feel all their growth potential is already factored into the stock price and that’s best case scenario. And for that reason I think FB stock will far outperform TSLA over the next 10 years. The only justification I can see for TSLA being worth more than FB is… bubble. +48M, 7.4M NW, $320k combined income, 3 kids + +Seeking advice on a land purchase. My wife and I own a 2nd home in another state, a cottage on a lake. We recently had our RE agent reach out to the owners of several lots across the road asking if they'd be interested in selling. They replied that they'd sell their 4 lots for no less than $150k, and that 2 of the lots had passed a septic survey - a perc test - meaning those lots would support a septic system, and are therefor build-able. $150k is more than twice what they paid in 2020, and far more than the lots are worth. However, they are worth more to us as they are right across the road from our place. + +The county had no records of perc tests, so we paid to have them done. One lot passed, the other did not. This is material because one idea was to scoop up the 4 lots, then sell off 3 of them, just keeping the one across the road from us. But, those 3 would not support a conventional septic system, making them harder to sell in the future. + +After the perc tests came back, we offered (on the advice of our RE agent), $100k. They declined, sticking to their $150k number. + +We can swing $150k, but I don't want to do something foolish by overpaying for the lots by double. + +**Pros to buying**: secure the lots across the road, prevent someone from building something hideous, maybe build another home or sweet lofted garage, increase the value of our existing place. + +**Cons to buying**: Feeling foolish, signaling to neighbors that we're idiots, etc. + +Any input or experience would be helpful. We have about a week to decide. + +UPDATE: Thanks everyone for the great comments and suggestions. You've convinced me to go for it. This has been really helpful! + This is the official $GME Megathread for [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/). 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I just want to make sure I'm not depriving myself of some things that would make life better. Here's a few things that I'm considering spending money on: + + +Build a private deck facing my yard: \~$5k + +Build an extension to my living room: \~$10-20k + +A heated outdoor shed for my home gym (with solar panel) \~$3-5k + + +I don't "need" these things, but I feel like they would make me more happy over the long run. They would probably also increase my home value. I'm planning on having kids soon too, so if there's something you bought / built for your kids that was worth it I'd love to hear about it. +[https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-bloodbath-middle-east-stocks-crater-kuwait-halted-aramco-below-ipo-dow-down-500](https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-bloodbath-middle-east-stocks-crater-kuwait-halted-aramco-below-ipo-dow-down-500) + +&#x200B; + +edit 2: + +WTI futures down to ~~$32.5 (-20%)~~ $28 (-33%) after the futures market opened: + +[https://m.investing.com/commodities/](https://m.investing.com/commodities/) + +&#x200B; + +edit 1: NY Times article with some good info (and for those who don't like ZH) + +[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/business/saudi-arabia-oil-prices.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/business/saudi-arabia-oil-prices.html) + +“Saudi Arabia is protecting its market position in the face of a collapse in oil demand, a shrinking physical market and greatly reduced prices,” said Sadad al-Husseini, a former executive vice president of Saudi Aramco. He argued that both Russia and Saudi Arabia would “come out of this down cycle as stronger players, while shale oil, oil sands and other costly or politically unstable producers struggle for financing.” + +“If you are Russia, it’s worth it for you to take a three-month price hit to see if you can knock out U.S. oil exports,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil and Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “They might be correct for three months but the shale never gets destroyed.” + +She said that the divergence in Saudi and Russian strategies “signals that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia is on the skids.” + +In a report published last month, the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based monitoring group, said the Saudis could produce more than 2 million barrels a day more while the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq could add roughly 1 million barrels a day between them. + +The crown prince’s ambitious and expensive economic development program, known as Vision 2030, could also be in trouble, Mr. Krane said, if oil producers open the taps and beat down prices. + +“A price war would cause the Saudis to put the entire Vision 2030 diversification plan on hold, while the kingdom hunkers down on austerity wages,” Mr. Krane said. +I have a pretty successful business, and it has enabled me to save a lot of money. However, the business is still paying the bills and I’m still putting money into savings but profits aren’t like they were. Things are slowing down to the point where I’m looking for something else. I’d like to get heavy into real estate but I’m not sure where to start or what kind to get into (apartments, duplex, single family, etc). + +I own my own home worth about $450k and I did a big down payment so I only owe $205k on it. Payments are around $1000 a month. I’m also building a vacation home and I’ve got around $300k into that ($230k of that financed) that I plan to rent out a lot of next year. I also have a very high credit score. + +So if you were me, what would you do? TIA + +***edit*** I should not have called the second home a vacation home. It’s a rental cabin being built in the smoky mountains that will be turned over to a property management company when it’s finished being built. Estimated gross yearly rental $45-55k. +Reselling was a good landing point after the disaster known as school consumed the vast majority of my life. I still have PTSD from it. + +However, I don't know if it is a good job for me. I work "full-time" with no other income sources and make around $20,000 net after taxes or $23,000 before tax. + +I have not applied myself fully to the business (still pay sales tax on items I purchase for resell, no car, limited inventory space). The main issue with reselling is buying items and holding inventory. + +I few myself as an anti-consumer minimalist so reselling is only really fun once the item sells and it leaves (hopefully forever) my living space. I have one storage unit but most items that are soon-to-be listed are in my apartment. + +I feel like there is this level of dread. Within my procrastination matrix, the things that need to be done (listing) are put-off until my sales are completely dry or it is a very easy to list item (new stuff). Shipping and packing up items are focused with a time crunch. This is actually easier because it allows my mind to focus on a single task. + +I am not sure if reselling is for me due to the conflict in personality. In fact, I much rather be at an estate sale and tell others why they should buy a certain item. But when I buy something, I feel like I am betraying my philosophy. + +Not sure what other jobs I could get though. I view myself as an undesirable hire. Mainly due to having no filter in the interviewing process. And (generally) the requirement of owning a car (I can't drive). + +What would you recommend? + +Currently 8 months into a 24 month grad program with a large Australian company however the program is just exploitive of grads and I have come to learn that I have no interest in the industry as well. I partially rushed into accepting the program as it was the only grad offer I had received. +Would it reflect badly on myself and my resume if I were to quit? I have a business degree and currently searching for other opportunities that interest me +If you are poor in America and need a job you are essentially instructed to act like you don’t need one in job interviews. Why do you want to work for this company is a bullshit question if you’re on the bottom wrung financially. I want to work because I presume that you pay money. +I'm entering my last year of undergrad and I'm not totally sure what field of Econ I'm interested in working in yet, but I am interested in Development and Environmental Econ and I've interned previously for a Damages Consultant. If I don't have a specific research objective beforehand, is a Masters degree something I should consider? I'm not sure if this is accurate but I heard from a mentor figure that "Masters are what they give the people who didn't finish a Ph.D" so I'm wondering if within the field of Econ it isn't seen very highly? Right now, my plan is to look for RA positions where they are available when I graduate. I know some basic Python and Stata skills. +Hey everyone. I recently began a band 6 (33k) NHS job, this is my first job. I lose under 1/3 to taxes and pension contributions. My pension is about 9.8% so is a significant amount and with recent cost of living crisis I wondered how necessary it is. + +I currently have a couple of health conditions that mean I might not live to 65. I don't plan on having children. But assuming I do live to pension age, with my national insurance contributions, wouldn't I already have a pension. + +Compared to something like a saving the money in a bank account. I won't be able to access money at all until my old age. And realistically would I even use all my pension before I die? Therefore wouldn't there be more value in using money whilst I am still alive. +It’s absolutely massive. + + + +Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a $130 billion package to support the wages of up to 6 million Australian throughout the coronavirus crisis. + +The “jobkeeper” subsidy will be worth $1500 a fortnight. + +“We will pay employers to pay their employees,” he said. “Our government has made a decision today that no government has made before. + +Mr Morrison said the wage subsidy package was an "economic lifeline". + +https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-scott-morrison-upgrades-social-distancing-restrictions-as-australia-s-covid-19-infection-rate-falls-20200329-p54f3b.html + +Factsheet here + +https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Fact_sheet_Info_for_Employees_0.pdf +#Hedgies' Thesis + +I bet that they thought if they dropped the price from $250 in Nov 2021 down to $77 in March 2022 that we'd sell. Hell no, we bought the dip. Big time. + +I bet that they thought if they let the price go to $180 in April 2022 at the quadruple top resistance that we would trade the top and sell. Hell no, we bot the top, and then bought it all the way down to $80 again (I know I did). + +You guys may think every ape here may just be different from your average trader, that we are fomo'ing hard and have diamond hands. And that's absolutely true. But let me tell you why that is. + +#Apes are like DayWalkers. Blood of Half Investors - Half Fomoers. All their Strengths, none of their weaknesses. + +Our buys are backed by hundreds of fantastic DD. Great theses, great evidence. We also love the first dip. The second dip, the third dip, and all the way down to the infinity-ith dip. But look at what happens to, say, crypto investors. Look at their subs, and look at their price. They have a breaking point. Everyone has a breaking point. Why is it that apes don't have a breaking point? Let me tell you. + +**It's DRS and Computershare.** First, Computershare validates all of our theses each quarter, that apes never sell. That's like the anchor for everyone's red portfolio on the red days. But I think second, and most importantly, **that it's because it's so darn slow to sell and rebuy DRS'd shares. And that's a great thing.** + +I know there are apes here who thought about trading the tips. You thought, what if it goes back down and I could make a small bit? You thought about it, but you couldn't bring yourself to do it. That's because somewhere in the back of your mind, you knew it was extremely risky. If you sold on Computershare, although the sale is immediate, it would take somewhere around 2-5 days to get the money from CS to your bank account (or even longer if you're opting for a snail-mail check). And then if you wanted to rebuy, you'd have to get that money back into a broker. Which would take another 2-5 business days. And then you'd have to DRS again, which would take ANOTHER 2-5 business days. + +**To make 1 single full trade cycle, out to cash, back into GME, it could take you an entire month. That is why we never sell DRS'd shares. Which brings me to my next big point.** + +#The Infinity Pool is Real + +If we take the understanding of the previous points of why we never sold DRS'd shares pre-MOASS, then it would absolutely also apply also to *during MOASS*. + +When the price climbs to $500, you could think about selling some and trading. But you won't. Because although it could drop to $100 the next day, it could also rocket back up to $1000. This could all happen within the blink of an eye. And then it could hit $5000 and beyond. **You would NEVER be able to "rebuy cheap" during a real squeeze. Never. Because it would take 1 month to go from GME->cash->GME, and you'd be done as soon as you hit that sell button.** + +I think there's a really good chance that, even the greediest, most selfish-of-apes, will never sell all, or even most of their shares. Because nobody truly knows what the floor or ceiling is. It hits $50k, would you sell most of your shares then? Hell no, because if it goes up to $xxx,xxx, then you are a paper-handed clown ape, and you could never forgive yourself. If it goes to $500,000, would you sell most of your shares then? Absolutely not, because even if you are holding 10 shares and would have $5mm to your name, what if it goes up to $x,xxx,xxx per share? You could've waited just a little longer, and instead of having to sell most shares, you could sell 1 and still be exponentially wealthier. And what if it goes to $xx,xxx,xxx? Omg, if you sold 7 shares by then, and only have 3 left, would you sell the rest then? What if it goes up to $xxx,xxx,xxx? You'd look like a peasant. Even if you decided to liquidate most at 9 digits, $100,000,000 is still much lower than $741,000,000 by comparison. + +The greedier you are, the less likely you are to ever let go any shares. Because during MOASS, if it goes to $900, it is extremely likely to squeeze to $5000, and if it gets there, it's extremely likely to squeeze to 5 digits, and so on. Apes will probably never sell a majority of their shares, because of how unprecedented this situation is. + +This situation is forging diamond hands at level we have never seen. And I don't believe there is anything the hedgies can do to change the course. The interns should read this post, and report to their captains that victory for the apes is inevitable. + +It's so hilarious that they are trying to drag it out and create uncertainty and fear, **because actually that uncertainty of when MOASS will happen, and how high it can go, and the inability to rebuy, has formed the Infinity Pool.** + +Cheers, my diamond-handed apes 🥂. May we have a great and wonderful trip to Uranus and beyond 🚀. +[Going, Going, Gone: What's Driving Australia's Property Frenzy?](https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/australia-property-market-investigation/13606018) + +***Going, Going, Gone: What’s driving Australia’s property frenzy*** + +*“I just don't believe how much prices have jumped.   These prices are far exceeding what I think is a fair and reasonable market price.”  Buyer’s agent, Sydney* + +Across Australia, property prices are going through the roof, pushing the total value of residential real estate to a staggering nine trillion dollars. + +*“It is definitely the hottest market I’ve ever seen with the low supply, the lower interest rates and the cost of borrowing, money being so cheap.” Real estate agent, Brisbane* + +When the pandemic hit in 2020, there were fears the property market would collapse.   Instead, house prices have risen at the fastest pace in at least three decades.  + +*“We thought it would stop for a pandemic, but it hasn’t.  I think it's gone against all the experts and predictors out there; it just keeps going.”   Auctioneer, Melbourne*  + +City prices are eye watering, and the phenomenon is spreading.   As people seize the chance to work from home, a stampede of buyers has sparked a property buying frenzy in regional Australia as well. + +*“Properties in Tasmania are literally selling within around about 48 hours.   I'd say that for every property that we sell, we could probably sell it 10 times over.”  Real estate agent* + +On paper, it’s made many homeowners across Australia millionaires.  In reality, it’s seen buyers mortgaged to the hilt, while others are priced out altogether. + +*“The great Australian dream has been about home ownership.  It's now become a lot of people's nightmare.”   Housing policy expert* + +On Monday, Four Corners tracks the property price boom that’s fuelling risky and irrational behaviour and investigates what is driving it. + +*“People are buying property sight unseen from another state. People are waiving their rights to finance…they're not doing building inspections…there's a lot of people taking a lot of risk.”  Buyer’s agent, Tasmania* + +For many people, the housing market has become unaffordable and it’s creating a generational divide.  Home ownership among those under the age of 45 has plunged to levels not seen since the 1950s. + +*“For my generation it means a lot less home ownership. I feel it's very unfair.”  Sydney home hunter* + +There’s a sense of despair and disillusionment from many who have worked and saved, only to see their dream slip out of sight. + +*“I did everything right. I did everything that every politician has ever told us to do... The situation's left me feeling completely defeated.”  Nurse, Tasmania* + +As the divide between the haves and have nots grows, housing experts warn there will be consequences. + +*“Housing has become, rather than a place of security where you raise a family, something that you seek to create wealth from and speculate on. So, that is a really big shift over the last 40 years.   And it's one that I don't think will serve the future well.”   Housing expert* + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +\*\*Apologies if posted already. + +EDIT: NEW LINK + +[https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/four-corners--what%E2%80%99s-driving-australia%E2%80%99s-real-estate-frenzy/13612062](https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/four-corners--what%E2%80%99s-driving-australia%E2%80%99s-real-estate-frenzy/13612062) +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/t74oub0j9t581.png?width=279&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a0623cc4a6add97baae3d3ce2fe9aeed9396646 + +**TL;DR: Alongside the SEC comments from** [**deepcapture.com**](https://deepcapture.com) **on Jim Cramer & Dendreon, Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne publicly called out Jim Cramer and CNBC by name nearly 12 years ago to the day in a press release to all Overstock shareholders.** + +I'm not the first Superstonker to have found this (I'm pretty sure), but alongside u/missing_the_point's post on Jim Cramer's behavior with regards to Dendreon, I thought this was also relevant. I mentioned this originally in my old Adoboli DD (for the years 2009-2011: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mp1m53/gme\_player\_profile\_ubs\_naked\_shorts\_2011s\_adoboli/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mp1m53/gme_player_profile_ubs_naked_shorts_2011s_adoboli/)) but Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne PUBLICALLY called out not just Jim Cramer but CNBC & more in a shareholders' letter...THAT YOU CAN STILL READ ON THEIR [OVERSTOCK.COM](https://OVERSTOCK.COM) PAGE. + +[https://investors.overstock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocker-pays-5-million-overstockcom-settle-lawsuit](https://investors.overstock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocker-pays-5-million-overstockcom-settle-lawsuit) + +Here's the text: + +>\*\*'A fine victory for Overstock, a triumph for the cause of cleaning up US capital markets' says CEO Patrick Byrne.\*\*SALT LAKE CITY, Dec 08, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Overstock.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: OSTK) today announced that Rocker Partners (now known as Copper River Partners) will pay $5 million to Overstock.com to settle Overstock's claims against the remaining defendants in its case against Rocker Partners, David Rocker, **Marc Cohodes**, and the management companies and hedge funds they controlled and advised. The defendants have agreed to dismiss their cross-complaint against Overstock.com and Patrick Byrne. Below is a letter from Patrick Byrne, the company's Chairman and CEO, commenting on the settlement (see our story at DeepCapture.com for full details). +> +>**Dear Owner:** +> +>**The good guys won.** +> +>I announced Overstock's lawsuit against Rocker in an August 12, 2005 conference call I titled, **"The Miscreants' Ball". In that call (and in subsequent elaboration on DeepCapture.com) I claimed that** [**a network of dirty Wall Street players**](http://www.deepcapture.com/someday-i-may-sac-up-and-be-more-explicit-about-the-sith/) **was engineering modern bear raids, destroying companies and destabilizing the system. I claimed that the network of hedge fund manipulators and compliant reporters intersected in a dirty** [**journalist named Jim Cramer**](http://www.deepcapture.com/jim-cramer-is-a-complicated-man/). In the network, I claimed, **were hedge funds such as David Rocker's; putatively independent research firms like Gradient which essentially took dictation from hedge funds; a small group of financial journalists such as Herb Greenberg and** [**Carol Remond**](http://www.deepcapture.com/carol-remond-tells-a-joke-about-copper-river-that-she-doesnt-get/) **who, it appears, also took assignments from this hedge fund network;** Milberg Weiss (a plaintiff's class action law firm which was coordinating its lawsuits with these bear raids); and [Eliot Spitzer](http://www.deepcapture.com/eliot-slowhand-spitzer-his-many-sugar-daddies/) (whose investigations as New York's Attorney General mirrored the trading activities of these hedge funds, which were among his largest backers). **In addition, I said that the SEC was saying grace over all of this because they had become hopelessly "captured" by Wall Street's worst elements.** +> +>**Since then, the SEC's turn-a-blind-eye deference towards Wall Street has been revealed by the Aguirre and Madoff-Markopoulis affairs (if not much more);** Milberg Weiss imploded under DOJ indictments and its leaders were jailed; Jim Cramer was exposed on national TV for the scoundrel he is; Eliot Spitzer was also exposed (but not yet, I believe, for his real connection to this crew); Herb Greenberg and others of the journalists I named have crawled under rocks (or gone to work for the hedge fund network for which I had so implausibly claimed they were shilling); **David Rocker's hedge fund melted down (thanks,** [**according to DowJones**](http://www.deepcapture.com/carol-remond-tells-a-joke-about-copper-river-that-she-doesnt-get/)**, to the SEC finally closing the gaping option market maker loophole against which Overstock had been lobbying for three years - if only, the SEC would not institute a pre-borrow requirement)**; and Rocker Partners is paying Overstock $5 million (that is on top of Gradient's earlier retraction and apology, and any monies Gradient paid which I cannot disclose). +> +>So let's score that one for the good guys. +> +>**What is of vastly greater significance than this $5 million payment, however, is an examination of the cover-up conducted by elements of the New York financial press. Taking the lead was CNBC, which spent a great deal of airtime downplaying the significance of this suit, vilifying me, and smearing Overstock. For example, though less than 1/4 of the Miscreants' Ball conference call had even been about Overstock, and the remaining 3/4 concerned the modern bear raid,** [**CNBC aggressively distorted**](http://www.deepcapture.com/category/the-appendix/) **the former and refused to mention (or allow mention of) the latter.** This pattern was followed with suspicious alacrity by some of the more prominent members of the New York financial press, some of whom (e.g., [Bethany McLean](http://www.deepcapture.com/bethany-mclean/)) saw some public emails which demonstrated precisely the relationship I had suggested, and some of whom (e.g., [Herb Greenberg, Joe Nocera, and Dan Calaruso](http://www.deepcapture.com/the-stories-behind-the-rocker-and-gradient-lawsuit-story)) were later secretly taped trying to persuade other journalists to engage in a cover-up. U**ltimately, I resorted to creating a website of investigative journalism called** [**www.DeepCapture.com**](http://www.deepcapture.com/) **(winner of the 2008 Weblogs Award for Best Business Blog), at which point CNBC,** [**Fortune**](http://www.deepcapture.com/why-are-fortune-magazine-and-the-new-york-financial-media-suddenly-pimping-sam-antar-the-crook/)[**Magazine**](http://www.deepcapture.com/roddy-boyd-sucks-it-like-hes-paying-the-rent/)[**Joe Nocera**](http://www.deepcapture.com/anti-investigative-reporter-joe-nocera-and-the-newspaper-of-non-record/)**, etc. developed sudden cases of laryngitis about me (lest they have to mention the website where my opinions were expressed without filtering: DeepCapture.com).** +> +>**Now that Overstock has won, I would expect CNBC to invite me back to discuss these events, about which CNBC was so wrong and vocal. I estimate that the chance this happens, however, are roughly the same as the chance that any mainstream journalist who covers this $5 million settlement will mention DeepCapture.com, despite its having been central to these events.** +> +>**I believe that the two factors which most determine the long-term health of a nation are its education system and its capital market (that is, its systems for developing human capital and for marrying it to financial capital). The miscreants of Wall Street may not be numerous, but they work together, and their blackguard ways impose an enormous social cost on our country.** Presumably that claim will strike many as more plausible than it did when I first began publicly making it in August 2005. +> +>I'd like to thank the late John O'Quinn, in whom I found an ally. I wish also to thank Overstock's fine legal team at Stein & Lubin for the superb work they did on this case. They will now be turning their full attention to Overstock.com's pending suit against the prime brokers (see below). +> +>Your humble servant, +> +>Patrick M. Byrne +> +>*History of the Rocker Case* +> +>In the landmark case, filed in Marin County, California August 11, 2005, Overstock.com, along with shareholder plaintiffs, sued Gradient Analytics, Inc.; Rocker Partners, L.P.; Rocker Management, LLC; Rocker Offshore Management Company, Inc. and their respective principals. On October 12, 2005, Overstock.com filed an amended complaint against the same entities alleging libel, intentional interference with prospective economic advantage and violations of California's unfair business practices act. On October 22, 2008, Overstock.com amended its complaint to name as additional defendants Cathy Longinotti, Mark Montgomery, Phillip Renna and Terrence Warzecha because of their former or existing status as general partners of Copper River Partners, L.P. +> +>Overstock.com asserted that David Rocker, his partner, Marc Cohodes, entities under their control, and other confederates worked with the so-called "independent" research firm, Gradient Analytics, to defame Overstock.com by publishing false information in order to drive down Overstock.com shares and profit from their short positions in the stock. Overstock.com based its complaint on affidavits from four former Gradient insiders who swore that it was well known that Gradient worked closely with some of its short-selling hedge-fund subscribers to issue "special" negative reports on specific companies targeted by those subscribers, and that Rocker, among others, had special editorial privileges and coordinated publication timing to allow his hedge fund to position their portfolios in advance of publication. Overstock.com alleged that Rocker and Cohodes participated in suggesting and editing the false reports which were published throughout the period of 2004 to 2005, and which a judge, in commenting on the frequency of the attacks referred to as, "carpet bombing." Overstock.com also asserted that high profile reporters in the financial media were given unprecedented access to the Gradient reports for the purpose of further coordinated dissemination of the false Gradient reports in Rockers concerted effort to damage and defame the company and drive down its share price. +> +>On October 10, 2008, Overstock and Patrick Byrne reached a confidential settlement agreement with Gradient Analytics and its current and former principals. Those defendants have been dismissed from the case after issuing a statement of "regret," reversing Gradient's published positions on Overstock.com, and stating that Gradient had "examined and improved its internal policies concerning how it communicates with clients, including hedge funds, and the media." +> +>On May 14, 2009, the shareholder plaintiffs dismissed their claims against the Rocker defendants. +> +>On November 9, 2007, Copper River Partners, L.P. f/k/a Rocker Partners L.P. filed a cross-complaint against Overstock.com and certain of its current and former directors. The Copper River cross-complaint alleged cross-defendants engaged in violations of California's state securities laws, violations of California's unfair business practices act, tortuous interference with contract and prospective business advantage, and deceit. On April 23, 2008, the court dismissed Copper River's cross claims against certain former Overstock.com directors. In that same ruling, the court dismissed four of the six claims against one of the former Overstock.com directors (and later Copper River dismissed the remaining claims against that director). In a separate ruling on the same day relating to Overstock.com and Patrick Byrne, the court dismissed the common law fraud claims and equitable indemnity claims and eliminated the possibility of money damages under Copper River's claims that Overstock.com and Byrne engaged in unfair business practices. +> +>Trial for both the Overstock.com complaint and the Copper River cross-complaint were set for February 9, 2010. +> +>*History of the Prime Broker Case* +> +>On February 2, 2007, Overstock.com, along with five shareholder plaintiffs, filed a lawsuit in San Francisco against Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Goldman Sachs & Co., Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., Bank of America Securities LLC, Bank of New York, Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse (USA) Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc., Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc., and UBS Financial Services, Inc. In September 2007, Overstock.com filed an amended complaint adding two plaintiff shareholders, naming Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as a defendant, eliminating the previous claim of intentional interference with prospective economic advantage and clarifying various points of other claims in the original complaint. +> +>This suit alleges that the prime broker defendants, who control over 80% of the prime brokerage market, participated in an illegal stock market manipulation scheme and that the defendants had no intention of covering short sell orders with borrowed stock, as they are required to do, causing what are referred to as "fails to deliver" and that the defendants' actions caused and continue to cause dramatic distortions within the nature and amount of trading in Overstock.com stock, as well as dramatic declines in the share price of Overstock.com stock. The suit asserts that a persistent large number of "fails to deliver" creates significant downward pressure on the price of a company's stock and that the amount of "fails to deliver" has exceeded the entire supply of outstanding Overstock.com shares. The suit accuses the defendants of violations of California securities laws and common law, specifically, conversion, trespass to chattels, intentional interference with prospective economic advantage, and violations of California's Unfair Business Practices Act. +> +>In April 2007, defendants filed a demurrer and motion to strike the Overstock.com complaint. Overstock.com opposed the demurrer and motion to strike. In July 2007, the court substantially denied defendants' demurrer and motion to strike. In November 2007, the defendants filed additional motions to strike. In February 2008, the court denied defendants' motion to strike the Overstock.com claims under California's Securities Anti-Fraud statute and defendants' motion to strike the Overstock.com common law punitive damages claims, but granted in part the defendants' motion to strike the Overstock.com claims under California's Unfair Business Practices Act, while allowing the Overstock.com claims for injunctive relief under California's Unfair Business Practices Act. +> +>Lehman Brothers Holdings filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 and Barclays Bank has purchased its investment banking and trading business. Overstock.com elected not to pursue its claims against Lehman Brothers Holdings in the bankruptcy proceedings. On January 12, 2009, the prime broker defendants filed a motion to strike portions of the Second Amended Complaint regarding allegations of collective action among defendants and the request for punitive damages. Also, on January 12, 2009, the prime broker defendants filed a demurrer to the first and second causes of action for conversion and trespass to chattels and a motion to strike various other allegations of the Second Amended Complaint. On March 19, 2009, the court sustained the demurrer to the first and second causes of action, but granted leave to amend the complaint. The motion to strike was denied. On April 20, 2009, Overstock.com amended its complaint against all the defendants, re-pleading conversion and trespass to chattels causes of action. The prime broker defendants again filed demurrer to the amended complaint and, on July 23, 2009, the court sustained the demurrer. Discovery in this case continues. +> +>No trial date has been set. + +**TL;DR: Alongside the SEC comments from** [**deepcapture.com**](https://deepcapture.com) **on Jim Cramer & Dendreon, Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne publicly called out Jim Cramer and CNBC by name nearly 12 years ago to the day in a press release to all Overstock shareholders.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[edit 2: picture to break up wall of text](https://preview.redd.it/mq0rpdbpau581.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=7861c3239d00e8bd75344c8b1c81efb0571e6a0e) + +edit 1: hopefully not hijacking own thread but curious if anyone can tell me if this is statistically a big increase, but posted this in a comment below from a research journal studying Cramer's show: + +[https://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/f/Hobbs\_Jeffrey\_2012\_Short%20Selling%20Behavior.pdf](https://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/f/Hobbs_Jeffrey_2012_Short%20Selling%20Behavior.pdf) + +Short Selling Behavior and Mad Money + +>We examine 1,234 buy recommendations from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money television show. Consistent with prior research, we report positive abnormal returns immediately after buy recommendations, followed by a reversal, indicative of an overpricing event. **We also find a marked increase in short selling.** Our results show a positive association between shorting and the buy recommendations even after controlling for factors shown in the literature to influence shorting. We do not find similar effects after sell recommendations. **These results suggest that short sellers act to exploit short-term overpricing arising from behavioral biases of some investors.** +> +>Our main finding is that there is a positive association between short selling and Mad Money buy recommendations, **even after controlling for a number of other factors previously shown to impact shorting activity...Engelberg, Sasseville and Williams (2011) report an overnight return follow- ing Cramer’s recommendations of 3% overall and nearly 7% for small-cap stocks. The authors also noted that as early as the day after a recommendation, shorting volume increases. ..** +> +>Additionally, we observe a spike in short selling activity around the time of the buy recommendation, most prominently on Day +1. For the NYSE-listed stocks, Short percentage (computed as the number of shares sold short for the day divided by total shares outstanding) averages 0.465% on Day +1, up from 0.363% for the day before. **For Nasdaq-listed stocks, shorting jumps to 1.428% on Day +1, up from 0.831% and 0.725% for the preceding two days. The level of shorting tends to remain high, relative to shorting in the days leading up to the buy recommendation, for several days afterward** +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/t74oub0j9t581.png?width=279&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a0623cc4a6add97baae3d3ce2fe9aeed9396646 + +**TL;DR: Alongside the SEC comments from** [**deepcapture.com**](https://deepcapture.com) **on Jim Cramer & Dendreon, Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne publicly called out Jim Cramer and CNBC by name nearly 12 years ago to the day in a press release to all Overstock shareholders.** + +I'm not the first Superstonker to have found this (I'm pretty sure), but alongside u/missing_the_point's post on Jim Cramer's behavior with regards to Dendreon, I thought this was also relevant. I mentioned this originally in my old Adoboli DD (for the years 2009-2011: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mp1m53/gme\_player\_profile\_ubs\_naked\_shorts\_2011s\_adoboli/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mp1m53/gme_player_profile_ubs_naked_shorts_2011s_adoboli/)) but Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne PUBLICALLY called out not just Jim Cramer but CNBC & more in a shareholders' letter...THAT YOU CAN STILL READ ON THEIR [OVERSTOCK.COM](https://OVERSTOCK.COM) PAGE. + +[https://investors.overstock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocker-pays-5-million-overstockcom-settle-lawsuit](https://investors.overstock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocker-pays-5-million-overstockcom-settle-lawsuit) + +Here's the text: + +>\*\*'A fine victory for Overstock, a triumph for the cause of cleaning up US capital markets' says CEO Patrick Byrne.\*\*SALT LAKE CITY, Dec 08, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Overstock.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: OSTK) today announced that Rocker Partners (now known as Copper River Partners) will pay $5 million to Overstock.com to settle Overstock's claims against the remaining defendants in its case against Rocker Partners, David Rocker, **Marc Cohodes**, and the management companies and hedge funds they controlled and advised. The defendants have agreed to dismiss their cross-complaint against Overstock.com and Patrick Byrne. Below is a letter from Patrick Byrne, the company's Chairman and CEO, commenting on the settlement (see our story at DeepCapture.com for full details). +> +>**Dear Owner:** +> +>**The good guys won.** +> +>I announced Overstock's lawsuit against Rocker in an August 12, 2005 conference call I titled, **"The Miscreants' Ball". In that call (and in subsequent elaboration on DeepCapture.com) I claimed that** [**a network of dirty Wall Street players**](http://www.deepcapture.com/someday-i-may-sac-up-and-be-more-explicit-about-the-sith/) **was engineering modern bear raids, destroying companies and destabilizing the system. I claimed that the network of hedge fund manipulators and compliant reporters intersected in a dirty** [**journalist named Jim Cramer**](http://www.deepcapture.com/jim-cramer-is-a-complicated-man/). In the network, I claimed, **were hedge funds such as David Rocker's; putatively independent research firms like Gradient which essentially took dictation from hedge funds; a small group of financial journalists such as Herb Greenberg and** [**Carol Remond**](http://www.deepcapture.com/carol-remond-tells-a-joke-about-copper-river-that-she-doesnt-get/) **who, it appears, also took assignments from this hedge fund network;** Milberg Weiss (a plaintiff's class action law firm which was coordinating its lawsuits with these bear raids); and [Eliot Spitzer](http://www.deepcapture.com/eliot-slowhand-spitzer-his-many-sugar-daddies/) (whose investigations as New York's Attorney General mirrored the trading activities of these hedge funds, which were among his largest backers). **In addition, I said that the SEC was saying grace over all of this because they had become hopelessly "captured" by Wall Street's worst elements.** +> +>**Since then, the SEC's turn-a-blind-eye deference towards Wall Street has been revealed by the Aguirre and Madoff-Markopoulis affairs (if not much more);** Milberg Weiss imploded under DOJ indictments and its leaders were jailed; Jim Cramer was exposed on national TV for the scoundrel he is; Eliot Spitzer was also exposed (but not yet, I believe, for his real connection to this crew); Herb Greenberg and others of the journalists I named have crawled under rocks (or gone to work for the hedge fund network for which I had so implausibly claimed they were shilling); **David Rocker's hedge fund melted down (thanks,** [**according to DowJones**](http://www.deepcapture.com/carol-remond-tells-a-joke-about-copper-river-that-she-doesnt-get/)**, to the SEC finally closing the gaping option market maker loophole against which Overstock had been lobbying for three years - if only, the SEC would not institute a pre-borrow requirement)**; and Rocker Partners is paying Overstock $5 million (that is on top of Gradient's earlier retraction and apology, and any monies Gradient paid which I cannot disclose). +> +>So let's score that one for the good guys. +> +>**What is of vastly greater significance than this $5 million payment, however, is an examination of the cover-up conducted by elements of the New York financial press. Taking the lead was CNBC, which spent a great deal of airtime downplaying the significance of this suit, vilifying me, and smearing Overstock. For example, though less than 1/4 of the Miscreants' Ball conference call had even been about Overstock, and the remaining 3/4 concerned the modern bear raid,** [**CNBC aggressively distorted**](http://www.deepcapture.com/category/the-appendix/) **the former and refused to mention (or allow mention of) the latter.** This pattern was followed with suspicious alacrity by some of the more prominent members of the New York financial press, some of whom (e.g., [Bethany McLean](http://www.deepcapture.com/bethany-mclean/)) saw some public emails which demonstrated precisely the relationship I had suggested, and some of whom (e.g., [Herb Greenberg, Joe Nocera, and Dan Calaruso](http://www.deepcapture.com/the-stories-behind-the-rocker-and-gradient-lawsuit-story)) were later secretly taped trying to persuade other journalists to engage in a cover-up. U**ltimately, I resorted to creating a website of investigative journalism called** [**www.DeepCapture.com**](http://www.deepcapture.com/) **(winner of the 2008 Weblogs Award for Best Business Blog), at which point CNBC,** [**Fortune**](http://www.deepcapture.com/why-are-fortune-magazine-and-the-new-york-financial-media-suddenly-pimping-sam-antar-the-crook/)[**Magazine**](http://www.deepcapture.com/roddy-boyd-sucks-it-like-hes-paying-the-rent/)[**Joe Nocera**](http://www.deepcapture.com/anti-investigative-reporter-joe-nocera-and-the-newspaper-of-non-record/)**, etc. developed sudden cases of laryngitis about me (lest they have to mention the website where my opinions were expressed without filtering: DeepCapture.com).** +> +>**Now that Overstock has won, I would expect CNBC to invite me back to discuss these events, about which CNBC was so wrong and vocal. I estimate that the chance this happens, however, are roughly the same as the chance that any mainstream journalist who covers this $5 million settlement will mention DeepCapture.com, despite its having been central to these events.** +> +>**I believe that the two factors which most determine the long-term health of a nation are its education system and its capital market (that is, its systems for developing human capital and for marrying it to financial capital). The miscreants of Wall Street may not be numerous, but they work together, and their blackguard ways impose an enormous social cost on our country.** Presumably that claim will strike many as more plausible than it did when I first began publicly making it in August 2005. +> +>I'd like to thank the late John O'Quinn, in whom I found an ally. I wish also to thank Overstock's fine legal team at Stein & Lubin for the superb work they did on this case. They will now be turning their full attention to Overstock.com's pending suit against the prime brokers (see below). +> +>Your humble servant, +> +>Patrick M. Byrne +> +>*History of the Rocker Case* +> +>In the landmark case, filed in Marin County, California August 11, 2005, Overstock.com, along with shareholder plaintiffs, sued Gradient Analytics, Inc.; Rocker Partners, L.P.; Rocker Management, LLC; Rocker Offshore Management Company, Inc. and their respective principals. On October 12, 2005, Overstock.com filed an amended complaint against the same entities alleging libel, intentional interference with prospective economic advantage and violations of California's unfair business practices act. On October 22, 2008, Overstock.com amended its complaint to name as additional defendants Cathy Longinotti, Mark Montgomery, Phillip Renna and Terrence Warzecha because of their former or existing status as general partners of Copper River Partners, L.P. +> +>Overstock.com asserted that David Rocker, his partner, Marc Cohodes, entities under their control, and other confederates worked with the so-called "independent" research firm, Gradient Analytics, to defame Overstock.com by publishing false information in order to drive down Overstock.com shares and profit from their short positions in the stock. Overstock.com based its complaint on affidavits from four former Gradient insiders who swore that it was well known that Gradient worked closely with some of its short-selling hedge-fund subscribers to issue "special" negative reports on specific companies targeted by those subscribers, and that Rocker, among others, had special editorial privileges and coordinated publication timing to allow his hedge fund to position their portfolios in advance of publication. Overstock.com alleged that Rocker and Cohodes participated in suggesting and editing the false reports which were published throughout the period of 2004 to 2005, and which a judge, in commenting on the frequency of the attacks referred to as, "carpet bombing." Overstock.com also asserted that high profile reporters in the financial media were given unprecedented access to the Gradient reports for the purpose of further coordinated dissemination of the false Gradient reports in Rockers concerted effort to damage and defame the company and drive down its share price. +> +>On October 10, 2008, Overstock and Patrick Byrne reached a confidential settlement agreement with Gradient Analytics and its current and former principals. Those defendants have been dismissed from the case after issuing a statement of "regret," reversing Gradient's published positions on Overstock.com, and stating that Gradient had "examined and improved its internal policies concerning how it communicates with clients, including hedge funds, and the media." +> +>On May 14, 2009, the shareholder plaintiffs dismissed their claims against the Rocker defendants. +> +>On November 9, 2007, Copper River Partners, L.P. f/k/a Rocker Partners L.P. filed a cross-complaint against Overstock.com and certain of its current and former directors. The Copper River cross-complaint alleged cross-defendants engaged in violations of California's state securities laws, violations of California's unfair business practices act, tortuous interference with contract and prospective business advantage, and deceit. On April 23, 2008, the court dismissed Copper River's cross claims against certain former Overstock.com directors. In that same ruling, the court dismissed four of the six claims against one of the former Overstock.com directors (and later Copper River dismissed the remaining claims against that director). In a separate ruling on the same day relating to Overstock.com and Patrick Byrne, the court dismissed the common law fraud claims and equitable indemnity claims and eliminated the possibility of money damages under Copper River's claims that Overstock.com and Byrne engaged in unfair business practices. +> +>Trial for both the Overstock.com complaint and the Copper River cross-complaint were set for February 9, 2010. +> +>*History of the Prime Broker Case* +> +>On February 2, 2007, Overstock.com, along with five shareholder plaintiffs, filed a lawsuit in San Francisco against Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Goldman Sachs & Co., Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., Bank of America Securities LLC, Bank of New York, Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse (USA) Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc., Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc., and UBS Financial Services, Inc. In September 2007, Overstock.com filed an amended complaint adding two plaintiff shareholders, naming Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as a defendant, eliminating the previous claim of intentional interference with prospective economic advantage and clarifying various points of other claims in the original complaint. +> +>This suit alleges that the prime broker defendants, who control over 80% of the prime brokerage market, participated in an illegal stock market manipulation scheme and that the defendants had no intention of covering short sell orders with borrowed stock, as they are required to do, causing what are referred to as "fails to deliver" and that the defendants' actions caused and continue to cause dramatic distortions within the nature and amount of trading in Overstock.com stock, as well as dramatic declines in the share price of Overstock.com stock. The suit asserts that a persistent large number of "fails to deliver" creates significant downward pressure on the price of a company's stock and that the amount of "fails to deliver" has exceeded the entire supply of outstanding Overstock.com shares. The suit accuses the defendants of violations of California securities laws and common law, specifically, conversion, trespass to chattels, intentional interference with prospective economic advantage, and violations of California's Unfair Business Practices Act. +> +>In April 2007, defendants filed a demurrer and motion to strike the Overstock.com complaint. Overstock.com opposed the demurrer and motion to strike. In July 2007, the court substantially denied defendants' demurrer and motion to strike. In November 2007, the defendants filed additional motions to strike. In February 2008, the court denied defendants' motion to strike the Overstock.com claims under California's Securities Anti-Fraud statute and defendants' motion to strike the Overstock.com common law punitive damages claims, but granted in part the defendants' motion to strike the Overstock.com claims under California's Unfair Business Practices Act, while allowing the Overstock.com claims for injunctive relief under California's Unfair Business Practices Act. +> +>Lehman Brothers Holdings filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 and Barclays Bank has purchased its investment banking and trading business. Overstock.com elected not to pursue its claims against Lehman Brothers Holdings in the bankruptcy proceedings. On January 12, 2009, the prime broker defendants filed a motion to strike portions of the Second Amended Complaint regarding allegations of collective action among defendants and the request for punitive damages. Also, on January 12, 2009, the prime broker defendants filed a demurrer to the first and second causes of action for conversion and trespass to chattels and a motion to strike various other allegations of the Second Amended Complaint. On March 19, 2009, the court sustained the demurrer to the first and second causes of action, but granted leave to amend the complaint. The motion to strike was denied. On April 20, 2009, Overstock.com amended its complaint against all the defendants, re-pleading conversion and trespass to chattels causes of action. The prime broker defendants again filed demurrer to the amended complaint and, on July 23, 2009, the court sustained the demurrer. Discovery in this case continues. +> +>No trial date has been set. + +**TL;DR: Alongside the SEC comments from** [**deepcapture.com**](https://deepcapture.com) **on Jim Cramer & Dendreon, Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne publicly called out Jim Cramer and CNBC by name nearly 12 years ago to the day in a press release to all Overstock shareholders.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[edit 2: picture to break up wall of text](https://preview.redd.it/mq0rpdbpau581.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=7861c3239d00e8bd75344c8b1c81efb0571e6a0e) + +edit 1: hopefully not hijacking own thread but curious if anyone can tell me if this is statistically a big increase, but posted this in a comment below from a research journal studying Cramer's show: + +[https://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/f/Hobbs\_Jeffrey\_2012\_Short%20Selling%20Behavior.pdf](https://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/f/Hobbs_Jeffrey_2012_Short%20Selling%20Behavior.pdf) + +Short Selling Behavior and Mad Money + +>We examine 1,234 buy recommendations from Jim Cramer’s Mad Money television show. Consistent with prior research, we report positive abnormal returns immediately after buy recommendations, followed by a reversal, indicative of an overpricing event. **We also find a marked increase in short selling.** Our results show a positive association between shorting and the buy recommendations even after controlling for factors shown in the literature to influence shorting. We do not find similar effects after sell recommendations. **These results suggest that short sellers act to exploit short-term overpricing arising from behavioral biases of some investors.** +> +>Our main finding is that there is a positive association between short selling and Mad Money buy recommendations, **even after controlling for a number of other factors previously shown to impact shorting activity...Engelberg, Sasseville and Williams (2011) report an overnight return follow- ing Cramer’s recommendations of 3% overall and nearly 7% for small-cap stocks. The authors also noted that as early as the day after a recommendation, shorting volume increases. ..** +> +>Additionally, we observe a spike in short selling activity around the time of the buy recommendation, most prominently on Day +1. For the NYSE-listed stocks, Short percentage (computed as the number of shares sold short for the day divided by total shares outstanding) averages 0.465% on Day +1, up from 0.363% for the day before. **For Nasdaq-listed stocks, shorting jumps to 1.428% on Day +1, up from 0.831% and 0.725% for the preceding two days. The level of shorting tends to remain high, relative to shorting in the days leading up to the buy recommendation, for several days afterward** + + +Hi Everyone, + +My post is to help those who are struggling with trading. For many starting out trading is like being given a book and then having all the pages ripped out and then having to assemble them all back together without the page numbers. The main issue I found when I first started is the amount of noise in this field. So much so that your usually bouncing around from strategy to strategy trying to see what works and what doesn't and most of the information you find online is very superficial. Then when you look to forums or paid chats you reduce the noise but again most of the "good information" is between the few good traders who mainly just exchange the information between each other leaving others in there paid chats with tid bits of information just enough to keep them hooked to the forum praying for the next juicy tid bit. + +Trading is hard, very very hard. It's one of those few things in life that you have to accept losing and being defeated over and over again in order to progress to the next level. Unfortunately many can't afford the $ losses to get to that point which is why having a good foundation is essential to good/consistent trading. In order to help others I'll give my format on how I go about finding set-ups that hopefully will keep others afloat long enough to become good at this game. My process is simple and barbaric but keeping complexity out of it as much as possible makes the process more streamlined. The goal of this game is to not make it more complicated than it already is. As you start to scale your account then you can start worrying about complexity and complicated set ups that may take days or weeks to complete. Anyways lets get started. + +Disclaimer first....everyone has a different trading style it's important you find one that fits your personality....someone may be good at trend following, swing trading, investment trading, buying dips no one set-up is perfect...it's what is perfect for you. Some traders trade complicated some do not, there is no right way so find what works for you and your temperament. + +I like to trade patterns on the 3 minute chart for shorting. I collect the daily gappers starting from 50% and up and collect data on them. Small caps with at least 100k volume. Many times you will get gappers where there just isn't enough volume and you get sporadic price action and large spreads(dont trade these unless you find an edge in that). Here is an example of what I collect. + +https://preview.redd.it/44cp7mhisop51.png?width=2071&format=png&auto=webp&s=c960a7d0f47da8d23632d6b3dea85492f96f2056 + +I put the daily gappers in here that were heavily traded that day. I input the information and then look through charts to notice any patterns that consistently appear. Generally I like chart patterns that appear at least 1-2 times a week. You may get 2-3 really good set-ups just combing through the charts. In other words if one set-up happens on average 1-2 days a week, then another one 3-4 days a week, then another 2-5 times a week you now have at least 3-6 high probability trades weekly when the market picks up after September. + +An easy chart pattern that happens frequently is this + +https://preview.redd.it/2kah0etfsop51.png?width=2200&format=png&auto=webp&s=75074c69adce24a5243fd2e286ebd1b61f86405e + +So lets say I find this pattern that happens frequently. I then sift through my data that I collected on gappers and find those patterns. I then take those rows and put them in another sheet and collect data further on those particular patterns. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/oeuzf2wksop51.png?width=967&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0b903264222021d63e6a915c4c6b7f929878017 + +I then make it visual to make it easier to get a birds eye view with graphs + +https://preview.redd.it/fozj4hpmsop51.png?width=1463&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3dc4f06c505f8502002492d05a7a37aea1260f7 + +When you start to collect data and graph it you can see multiple commonalities, where the majority breakdown, where they put in the HOD etc. From this you infer when the best time to enter and exit are. I haven't updates these charts yet but you can see that that most of the HOD times occur at 1000 so it's safest to short at 1000 or a little before and expect a breakdown by 1030...if it does not breakdown or is down trending and stays within the Top 25% range of the high by 11 it's best to close position. + +Hopefully you went through all your charts and found a set-up...but you must also find one which is similar but goes against you. You need a positive chart and a negative chart to give you the risk parameters. So if we have this + +&#x200B; + +[ ](https://preview.redd.it/nj5ygycosop51.png?width=2200&format=png&auto=webp&s=16606dd9dad8dd63170b29365b8520378fe99f73) + +**This chart pattern is a push to the open where the chart grinds up in pre-market close to open and then fails** + +you will also need this + +&#x200B; + +[ ](https://preview.redd.it/vjwn932qsop51.png?width=2200&format=png&auto=webp&s=06ae9263f28e7ec7198fe6766a02f90ec07e056e) + +**This is the negative chart pattern where the chart grinds up in pre-market to open and then fails but recovers mid-day.** + +We have the negative and positive chart. We find the best times to enter, the best times to exit, breakdown times, how many spikes above pre-market that they have before 11 and so on and so on. But you also find what you need to watch out for and how it looks when it does and what times they happen at. What you do here is build parameters for the set-up and once you notice things are different than what happens 90% of the time you get out and wait for normalization...if it happens. + +Its easier as a trader if you break things down into time zones and within those times zones the probabilities of what will happen for those specific set-ups. An example would be this push to open set-up that I have shown. It gaps into premarket at 7am. I know that the best shorts in pre-market are at 7 and before 8. So I take a short position. I exit position at 8 knowing that is the usual time pre-market spikes again due to other brokers opening up etc. I wait until 9ish for reentry since this is when a push to open may fail in pre-market or wait if it continues its trend upward into open. When market opens there's 3 scenarios that can happen....at 930-935 there will be an immediate spike at open with a long wick...I short knowing that "x" percent of the time it dumps "x" percent. Next scenario is it just dumps right at the open and I wait for pop to enter short. Last scenario is it goes above pre-market high and this occurs "x" % times normally. If there 1 spike above pre-market there's "x" chances of there being another one and then "x" chances of another one. If the stock does not drop below 25% of the high on the FIB ext then there's "x" probability that it will squeeze. **So now instead of trying to get good at trading the whole chart it's much easier to trade specific time zones that give you the best edges.** I like to break my time zones from 700-930, 930-1030, 1030-1100, and 1300-1500. Those are the time zones I find the best quality set-ups for me. I look for set-ups and then how the set-ups play out during those time zones and if anything doesn't go the way I've seen "x" percent of the time I simply exit. There's alot more that goes into it but this is just to give some insight into how to find possible edges. + +Its important to track daily gappers and then once you have a big enough database you can start pulling set-ups from it. Too much false information is passed around in the trading community...when you start tracking stuff you will start to notice it more and more. + +Hope it helps some. I know not everyone trades this style but for those who are interested hopefully it gives you some insight on what you can improve +Today I sold my ether. The price, 3x what I paid for. It’s not that I lost faith in the crypto, but instead I want to pay for an experience of a lifetime. This summer I’m going to do a bike tour in Europe, paid for with only the money I made from ether. I can’t explain how good it feels for this to be really happening. I believe ether will continue to rise, but at this point in my life, I think paying for an experience of a lifetime is priceless. I’m okay either way, whether it goes up to 1000% or falls to shit in the next couple years. I’ll still have this experience thanks to crypto. + +<3 + +Backstory—I’m a college student lucky enough to have been able to accumulate some savings while working summer jobs and part time during the school year. Took a HUGE risk, took my money out of “safe, long stocks” and put it into ether, right around Cryptokitties time. + +Thanks! That’s all I had to share. +I heard from a socialist that wealth can't be equitably distributed across the world within capitalism and that rich countries inadvertently rely on the exploitation of poor workers in poor countries (like sweatshops). However, I think that when a country invests enough in its human capital (like education, healthcare) and infrastructure, a poor country can transition to a rich country (basically what China is doing now). I apologize if this is a loaded question. +I feel like this single etf thing is being blown out of proportion. There's a lot of misinformation flying around. Fud posts are being massively upvoted. Posts with correct information are not getting that many. There's already over 100 etfs that they can use or have been using for fuckery. It hasn't stopped gamestop from becoming a tech company. It hasn't stopped us locking the float. It hasn't stopped the split dividend. And even with all the fuckery the price has not been going down. Its slowly going up. One more etf isn't going to change anything for the hedgies. + +Edit: If you buy shares before the split dividend you will receive it. Do not let them fud you into not buying. They're trying to fud people into not buying shares to limit the damage. +I have been enamored by JEPI. ~9% dividend with low volatility! what's the secret sauce? Well, on the surface, it appears that the ETF is selling call options. I research things a lot before I get serious about them so I started digging more into this and it appears that JEPI is actually not selling call options directly (later in the post, you will see that JEPI is in fact not even selling call options, but purchasing high-risk ELNs). When I used to do options selling, I never found got the income that JEPI is giving out so I was even more curious. + +The first mystery I wanted to solve was to find more about what the heck is that SPX_1 etc in the top holdings. This is easy- just go to https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-equity-premium-income-etf-etf-shares-46641q332#/documents and download "Equity Linked Notes Estimated Equivalent Unit Delta – Gamma" file and you will see "SPX is in reference to the S&P 500 Index." in the footnote. + +And that's where things get interesting. JEPI doesn't invest directly in the index itself but in stocks, so how come there are covered calls related to S&P index? moreover, I was confused that if JEPI is selling call options on the stocks in holds, why would they appear in assets- I would expect them to be listed in debt or something like that. It is not an "asset" per se. + +To find more about that, I downloaded the "Third Quarter Holding" document from the "Regulatory Documents" section of the website. You can see that ~85% of the ETF assets are in stocks and about ~15% are ELNs. + +Although the JEPI prospectus states that the JEPI generates income from call options, the reality is that it is generating income from ELNs. One may argue ELNs are like call options but I think they are quite different from a risk profile perspective. ELNs are not regulated/secured through "Chicago Board Options Exchange" (unlike regular call options). You can see the 3Q ELNs here https://i.imgur.com/gWxNxLf.png. Also, note that the originators of these ELNs are not necessarily based out of the US (you can see UK, France, Swiss-based etc ) + +(it all makes sense now why SPX_1 etc are listed in top holdings- JEPI is purchasing these ELNs and these ELNs are like assets) + +Simply put, there is no secret sauce: +JEPI = (any regular low volatility ETF) + ELN. + +What JEPI is not: low volatility stocks + covered call options + +So far, JEPI managers have done a phenomenal job of managing risk. and I hope they continue to do so. I just wanted to share my research with the community in the hopes that people investing in it are aware of the ELN risks. + + +EDIT: ELN interest rates are not clear from the data but given the high-interest rate, the risk is much higher. + + +EDIT-2/TL;DR/ELI5: +The perception of JEPI generating incoming from option call selling is wrong. It appears from data that the income is being generated by extremely risky ELNs. +Follow-up post of my previous post: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p6o6e7/blackrock\_sold\_22\_of\_gme\_probably\_rebalancingbut/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p6o6e7/blackrock_sold_22_of_gme_probably_rebalancingbut/) + +&#x200B; + +A few comments there drew my attention to Renaissance Technologies, TBH I have never heard from them before, So I did what every smart ape does, I go to wikipedia: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/u4eyedlcq9i71.png?width=1410&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ca4121d8df7b8148fa3c170c0d51dc8b39aa448 + +Okay so let me get this straight: The most successful hedge fund in the world, which only acts based on mathematical models/statistics/hard facts and not on emotions/human behavior...etc just recently bought 606k GME shares... TITS OFFICIALLY JACKED! + +Source: [https://fintel.io/so/us/gme](https://fintel.io/so/us/gme) + +https://preview.redd.it/akz7c9ljr9i71.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=4507dccc818ad5d4a1ab0a4e1f25e7689711244b + +Edit: For some clarification: + +https://preview.redd.it/9l56cm8d8ai71.png?width=714&format=png&auto=webp&s=fbd5299b2615000b633bb9cfce079bc2c251abd6 + +Effective date is 06-30, so who knows if they are still in right now. Also something to mention: In their 2020-09-30 13F they had 800k shares but they were gone in their 2020-12-31 13F so they sold their first 800k€ shares before the first big run-up in January...Maybe they learned from their mistake :-D +Seems like Beijing in China is hit with 2nd wave of covid. hopefully our market survive without too much damage. + +https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53046454 +And we didn't lose any sleep over it. The layoff came as a shock to both of us as her company seemed to be doing fine financially and there haven't been any previous layoffs there over the past year. Luckily, because we've been working towards FI, the only real impact is that our savings rate is going to drop from 50% to around 25% until she finds work again. I make enough to cover all of our monthly bills and debt obligations, and we don't carry any CC debt, so we shouldn't even have to dip into our emergency fund. Therefore, no immediate change in lifestyle for us. + +We are not FI yet and won't be for many years (I posted last month about how we finally just hit a NW of $0), but even if we never RE, I think the freedom from financial stress is the real reward of following the FI mindset. Not so many people are lucky enough (or good enough at saving) that they could lose 30% of their household earnings overnight and be OK. + +So in short, thank you to this great community for reminding us daily why living below your means is so important! +They claim that they were excited by new people coming in and let the door wide open. That is pure BS. All of these new posts are clearly attempts to paint us as "individuals influencing financial decisions". Paint us as a group. Pure and simple attempts to blame us later as a group which we are not. + +And banned words removed! The excuse - "don't know about it, let us fix it". Another BS. This is a clear security breach and someone or all of thee mods have a hand in this. + +I have been here long enough to see when mods badly eff up. I've seen it many times in the past and also seen mods facing the consequences. They can't act naive and childish to claim they were effing "excited". + +If they can't handle a simple matter of maintaining the security of the sub, they shouldn't continue as mods. Especially since things are moving more and more towards the end game and the tactics of outside forces are going to be more and more desperate. + +Someone needs to answer for all that has happened. That's the way this sub has worked until now. Remember that the very owner of the sub had to resign over a security breach not too long ago. +I'm finally seeing green results after months and months of pain and agony with trading. Everything I did it seemed like the market was against me and I would end up losing money or breaking even long term. What took me to the next level are 3 things. + +\- Be extremely serious about risk management. Right now, before I enter I trade, I look where my stop loss would be. This has led me to only take trades with very good r / r ratios, like 1:3 or 1:4. Since I've started doing this, I slowly stopped breaking even and my account is now growing slowly day by day. + +\- People saying that you should master 1 or 2 strategies or patterns are spot on. I stopped chasing random pumps, wicks, and patterns when I realized I was just gambling by doing that, and I now only trade 2 type of patterns. I see great results trading triangles and breakouts. I have traded so many of them that now a lot of times I see very similar price action and I can spot fakeouts and know what is likely going to happen. + +\- Size the f\*ck down. I realized that by trading with amounts that I wasn't comfortable losing with my r / r ration (for example, risking $100 to make $300 -> $100 I'm not comfortable losing) I was making dumb mistakes and I wasn't analyzing the reasons why my trade did or did not work. Instead, my mind was on I NEED TO MAKE IT BACK ASAP. So I would take dumb trades to try to recover my loses. I started trading with much smaller amounts, and now I'm more comfortable by just placing a SL, a TP, and going away until something happened, instead of being glued to the monitor and watch the 1 second chart, get mentally tired and scared, and exited the trade because of overthinking and for it to then go straight to my profit target. + +Obviously, I am still very new and expect to get my ass rekt when the markets change and all of that, but that's only going to help me learn more and be smarter about future trades. Never thought trading would be so hard. I wouldn't recommend it to any of my friends. I have cried and yelled while trading. Sometimes I think it is impossible. That I will lose it all and start back from 0, like I did 3 times already. But hey, it's worth a try. Sorry for the long post lol. Hope it helps someone + +Edit: Thank you so much for the awards!!! That's my first time getting any and I'm glad my post was helpful to some people ! +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Find the latest Altcoin Discussion thread in [this search listing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3Aaltcoin&include_over_18=on&sort=new&t=all). + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! +Wife and I are mid 30s \~2M NW and we are bringing in \~.5M a year. I’ve thought about this for setting my FIRE number target, but curious if this feels right to this group. It seems like there are a few distinct tiers of utility afforded by your nest egg. These all assume a \~4% withdrawal rate: + +3M: live on 10k a month; you should stop doing jobs you hate. Live a good upper-middle-class life, especially if you don’t have a mortgage, but not at all FAT. + +10M (my target #): \~33k a month, 400k a year. Should only keep doing jobs you love. You're VERY comfortable, you travel wherever you want, stay in nice hotels, eat wherever you want and rarely think about money, you’re still flying commercially, but are paying for the upgrades. + +20M: \~66k a month, 800k a year. Only work if your work makes you happier than any other alternative thing you could be doing. All the 10M benefits + inviting and covering guests for trips + flying privately domestically. First class for any international travel. + +There are several tiers of wealth beyond this obviously, but in terms of things that make your life easier more enjoyable it feels like the cost of reaching for more is worth far less than the freedom/time you give up. + +&#x200B; + +Edit\*\* Thanks for the feedback. Looks like my 20M $ description is more like \~50M. +I was talking to a family friend today and we started talking about gme. He had made hundreds of thousands off of the COVID crash. When we started talking about gme he said that he had shorts on gme at 2 cents. I tried to convince him that gme isn’t able to get that low and how it’s over shorted. He then tried to explain he heard on the news that gme is over and people will sell in January for capital gains tax. People really have no idea what’s going on and refuse to learn what’s going on. Has anyone else had an experience like this? +I make pretty good money, so I like to be generous and help out friends and family when I can. But obviously I don't want to make anyone uncomfortable or come across as me just showing off how much money I have. + +I have a younger sister who had a baby a few months ago, but I live in a different state so I can't be there to babysit and help support them the way I would like to. Would it be weird to offer to pay for a babysitter/nanny occasionally so that she and her husband can have a date night? Or spend a few hundred dollars on a doordash gift card for them? + +This is a pretty specific example but I would love to hear about any experiences you've had helping out friends and family financially, or if you just generally avoid it. +It's very easy to see dollar signs when we see big moves or hear about how someone turned $100 to $1M, or we're in the middle of a winning trade and think it's about to go parabolic. We're programmed to want to WIN! But, that's not how trading actually works. + +After you enter a trade, what did you do besides sweat and pray? Nothing. You clicked the buy button and hoped you could turn a profit. Winners take care of themselves and will run with or without you. You can even make a bad trade and end up making profit out of luck. What your job is, as a trader, is to stop the losers because the market cannot stop itself. + +All too often we cut our winners too fast and hold losers too long. We will be in a winning trade and think the run is about to end so better close the trade, or we'll hold a loser and think it could recover or it should find support. This is 100% backwards. + +In a winning trade, under ideal situations, you would buy and sell as you go. Take a starter position, sell half, buy the dip, sell some more, rinse and repeat until the trend is done and you're formally stopped out. + +But if the trade goes against you, close it immediately. It absolutely does not matter if the price recovers and runs later. It's easy to review a trade and think, "if I would have held, I could have made a profit" but that's a trap. In the heat of the moment, you didn't know if it would recover or not. I have personally taken quick L's on stocks that ended up tanking to low of day after I sold, only to see it turn around and make a new high of day. What are the odds of that happening? Not great. You need to develop strict entry and exit rules and follow them at all times to ensure consistency. + +The name of the game is risk management, so all you can do is protect yourself. If something runs, it'll run all by itself so you can enjoy the ride. But if something reverses on you, kill the trade. Taking a quick $50 or $100 loss (depending on your account size) is way better than blowing up your account or losing thousands because you "thought" or "hoped" it would recover. Remember that even professionals have a 60%+ win rate, which means they're losing nearly half the time. Difference is the winners are bigger than the losers. + +Gamblers only think of profits. Traders think about risk. Develop your strategy accordingly. +EDIT 1: + +First of all, thank you to everyone who has awarded and commented on this post. Honestly, I thought that only 500-700ish people would read this, so the fact that it got this much traction is a surprise. + +Secondly, I just want to say that this is all speculation based on some research I did into the figures behind the DTCC. There are most likely things I've missed, misunderstood, or got wrong. If I did, then I apologize and want to state that I tried my best with the smooth brain I have to understand the situation and explain it with the information I found. + +Third, I think that based on the comments, the feeling that there's so much more going on underneath the surface that the MSM isn't talking about is something MANY people are feeling. All of this runs deeper than any one of us realizes. I mean, trying to read the DD u/atobitt has been pumping out... I feel like my findings are like finger paintings compared to his Sistine Chapel. But it's a communal effort. If I did contribute to the overall knowledge of this community, if I did uncover some hidden strings that are being pulled, then I'm happy. + +With that being said, I highly encourage you all to keep on digging. Yes, so much information is being tucked away and hidden from us. BUT the edges of the puzzle are there to find. The more people keep putting out DD for these amazing communities to read, mull over, and question, the better. + +So, lastly, thank you to all of the amazing people who have been pumping out DD since January. Thank you to all of you who will continue to put out DD. Thank you to all who comment on the DD and further the pool of knowledge. You have all enriched me, as I hope I have enriched you... and as I know that GME will enrich us. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍 + +Apes strong together + +\--------- + +EDIT 2: + +One other tidbit I saw that I failed to mention because it was a bit off tangent was brought to mind by a comment made by u/Nileliketheriver + +This is my response: + +>This is my cynical answer. Legality doesn't matter if the rules aren't enforced. Take jaywalking. It's illegal and yet I've never gotten ticketed or stopped for it. So, even though it's against the law to jaywalk, I still do it. +> +>That's the thing with all of this. The people involved know the rules, but they also know the people who make the rules and enforce the rules. +> +>Take, for instance, Robert L. D. Colby. He's on the DTCC Board. He's also THE CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER FOR FINRA. +> +>The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (**FINRA**) is an independent, nongovernmental organization that writes and enforces the rules governing registered brokers and broker-dealer firms in the United States. +> +>So, you have the head lawyer for FINRA on the Board of the DTCC. I think that says it all. + +From Robert Colby's bio + +>Robert L.D. Colby is the Chief Legal Officer of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), which he joined in June 2012. In this capacity, he oversees FINRA’s corporate and regulatory General Counsel functions, as well as FINRA’s Advertising and Corporate Financing Departments, the Office of Hearing Officers and Dispute Resolution. +> +>Previously, Colby was a partner in the Washington, DC, office of Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, where he advised on regulatory and compliance matters involving securities and derivatives for financial institutions, markets and clearing organizations. +> +>Before joining Davis Polk in 2009, Colby served for 17 years as Deputy Director of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Trading and Markets. In that role, he was responsible for the regulation of broker-dealers, securities markets and clearing organizations. Previously, for 11 years he was Chief Counsel of the Division and Chief of the Division’s Branch of Market Structure. + +\--------- + +EDIT 3: + +I just wanted to say something super obvious but that needs to be said. I don't believe that there are any good guys or bad guys in this scenario (except for retail). They're all bad. The only difference is that some will get us our tendies while others will try to take our tendies away. + +\--------- + +This is a follow-up to a DD I posted a few days ago. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mmh9jq/why\_is\_the\_dtcc\_taking\_so\_long\_to\_act\_when\_moon/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mmh9jq/why_is_the_dtcc_taking_so_long_to_act_when_moon/) + +Something has been nagging me about what I dug up, so I continued to dig and found some more interesting connections that paint a clear picture of what's going on behind the scenes in the DTCC, + +TL;DR + +There's a battle going on for control of the DTCC that is pitting the Citadel team against the JPM/BOA team. + +\--------- + +**RECAP PREVIOUS POST** + +As I wrote in my previous post, every 3 years the DTCC has a STOCK REALLOCATION. Based on the previous year's usage of DTCC resources, the MANDATORY PURCHASER PARTICIPANTS must purchase a proportionate amount of shares. These shares determine the voting power that will be used to elect the board during the yearly shareholder meeting. + +Just like politics, the more money you have, the more you can influence the outcome of the election, which means that you will have more influence over the direction and decisions of those in power. + +\--------- + +**PART 1: Board Leadership Changes** + +The last time the STOCK REALLOCATION occurred was 2018. This led me to look at the DTCC Board for 2018, 2019, and 2020. + +[**https://www.dtcc.com/annuals/2018/index.html#/leadership**](https://www.dtcc.com/annuals/2018/index.html#/leadership) + +[**https://www.dtcc.com/annuals/2019/leadership**](https://www.dtcc.com/annuals/2019/leadership) + +[**https://www.dtcc.com/about/leadership/board**](https://www.dtcc.com/about/leadership/board) + +Between 2018 and 2019, there was no change on the Board. It stayed exactly the same. During 2020, however, 3 members were replaced. + +**OLD MEMBERS:** + +\-Michael Herskovits (Morgan Stanley) + +\-Joseph A. Molluso (Virtu Financial/JP Morgan) + +\-Emily Portney (BNY Mellon) + +**NEW MEMBERS:** + +\-Debbie Cunningham (Federated Hermes - Largest Owner of shares is CITADEL) + +\-Craig Messinger (Virtu Americas - Same as Virtu Financial) + +\-Andrea Pfenning (BNY Mellon) + +\--------- + +**PART 2: Board Leadership Allegiances** + +Going further into the Board's bios, I found very specific connections between the members and a lot of the groups at play in the GME story. + +\-Robert L.D. Colby: FINRA CLO: 2012 - Present + +\-Shawn K. Feeney: Citi: 2013 - Present + +\-Claudine Gallagher: JP Morgan: 2002-2012, BNP Paribus + +\-David S. Goone: OCC, DTC, Intercontinental Exchange: 2015-Present, Singapore Mercantile Exchange (FUTURE DATE) + +\-Kieran Hanran: JP Morgan + +\-Lori Hricik: JP Morgan + +\-Pinar Kip: State street, PWC: 2006-2011, BOA: 2002-2005 + +\-Kathleen B. Lynch: UBS Americas, BOA/Merrill Lynch: 2012-2013 + +\-Raj Mahajan: Goldman Sachs + +\-Graeme McEnvoy: Morgan Stanley + +\-Joseph Noto: Barclays International: 2017 - Present, Citadel 2015-2017, JP Morgan: 2009-2015, Bear Sterns: 2003-2008 + +\-Ann N. Reese: Genesee & Wyoming Inc (Citadel has interests in this:[ https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/heres-what-hedge-funds-think-about-genesee-wyoming-inc-gwr-739208/](https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/heres-what-hedge-funds-think-about-genesee-wyoming-inc-gwr-739208/)) + +\-Paul Simpson: BOA + +\-Joseph Weinhoffer: Mitsubishi UFJ Securities (ties to Morgan Stanley), Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bank of New York + +\-Debbie Cunningham: Federated Hermes, Inc.(**Citadel:** [**https://fintel.io/so/us/fii/citadel-advisors-llc**](https://fintel.io/so/us/fii/citadel-advisors-llc)**)** + +Craig Messinger: Virtu Americas, BNY Mellon + +Andrea Pfenning: BNY Mellon + +Looking at this list, you can see that the board consists of certain allegiances. Below is a VERY ROUGH guess of what it looks like. + +JP Morgan - 4 + +BOA - 3 + +Citadel - 3 + +Morgan Stanley - 2 + +BNY Mellon - 2 + +Virtu - 2 + +Goldman Sachs - 1 + +Citi - 1 + +State Street - 1 + +UBS - 1 + +\--------- + +**PART 3: Lost Influence/Gained Influence** + +During the Board changes from 2019-2020, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley lost one member each who was a potential ally. At the same time, Citadel gained one member on the Board. + +Now, I'm trying to remember where I heard this... maybe it was during the second GME Hearing, but I think that Citadel was trying to become a bank but it failed. Oh wait... that happened. + +[https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/citadel-chief-gives-up-dream-for-investment-bank/](https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/citadel-chief-gives-up-dream-for-investment-bank/) + +Why was Citadel trying to become a bank? My guess is to gain more power/influence. + +Looking at the DTCC Board, it's clear that the BANKS are the ones in control. They have the greatest influence on the DTC, NSCC, ICE, FICC... I mean, it's just crazy how deep their tendrils go. + +Maybe that's why Citadel welcomed the break up of wall street banks. + +[https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/citadel-s-griffin-welcomes-the-break-up-of-wall-street-banks-14112108](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/citadel-s-griffin-welcomes-the-break-up-of-wall-street-banks-14112108) + +[https://www.cnbc.com/2013/11/12/citadels-ken-griffin-would-break-up-big-banks.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2013/11/12/citadels-ken-griffin-would-break-up-big-banks.html) + +Since Citadel's tactic of becoming a bank to gain more DTCC influence failed, they tried to go about it in another method. Growing so big that they use as much of the DTCC resources as possible in order to gain more voting power install Board members who will favor them. I also have no doubt that they have deals with MPPs and VPPs (please read the first post for info on this) to help their cause. + +\--------- + +**PART 4: Who AGAINST Who?** + +Right now, there's an important war going on inside the DTCC, and the battleground is GME. So, who are the teams in this epic saga? + +According to this[ old post](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mebjlr/why_did_the_dd_get_deleted/), one guess is that the teams are arranged like this: + +**TEAM GME (OR TEAM ROCKET, BECAUSE** u/KlausInTheHous **ASKED)** + +Retail, Vanguard, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Maverick Capital, Senvest, State Street, D.E Shaw + +**TEAM SUCK BALLS UNTIL YOU CHOKE** + +Melvin, SIG, UBS Group, Group One Trading, Jane Street Capital, Citadel, Citibank, Wolverine Trading, Maplelane Capital + +I'm adding Virtu Financia/America and Susquehanna to this group because of[ this post.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mlf82b/the_missing_citadels_frenemies_pfof_michael/) + +\--------- + +**PART 5: BOA & JP Morgan Institutional Investors** + +When you dig into who has a vested interest in these two banks and compare it to PART 4's teams, something becomes illuminated. + +[BOA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/bac/holders/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lxgc8t2pqks61.png?width=638&format=png&auto=webp&s=dad4124bde3e6bb1202e78cfdebde6a7de4a31d3 + +[JP Morgan](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPM/holders/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jwypeatpqks61.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa69cae43d39c575092ada129b38c69fe2ae0a74 + +I know that the last date was 12/30/2020, but I think that the info is still relevant to my point. + +[GME Institutional Holders](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/moea4e/i_built_a_small_app_to_display_sec_institutional/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/7wif4ecqqks61.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=8510d9d832d1652a5d8888d0506e9ff1ea664421 + +Vanguard, Blackrock, State Street, FMR, Morgan Stanley, Geode Capital... they're all on the GME rocket. And the one's shorting it: Melvin, SIG, UBS Group, Group One Trading, Jane Street Capital, Citadel, Citibank, Wolverine Trading, Maplelane Capital, Virtu Financial/America, and Susquehanna. + +The only group shorting GME with a long position is Susquehanna, and look at how much their position changed. + +\--------- + +**PART 6: Going Back To The (Drawing) Board** + +When you take part 5 into consideration, you can see that there is a HIGH likelihood that the DTCC Board is drawn up like this. + +**TEAM (ROCKET) GME** + +JP Morgan, BOA, Morgan Stanley, State Street, Goldman Sachs - 11 + +**TEAM SUCK BALLS UNTIL YOU CHOKE** + +Citadel, Virtu, Citi, UBS - 7 + +**TEAM UNKNOWN** + +BNY Mellon - 2 + +\--------- + +**PART 7: IT'S CONJECTIURE TIME!** + +So, why are all these DTC, FICC, NSCC, ICE, and OCC (There's an OCC Board member on the DTCC Board, that's the connection) rules and regulations passing right now? Why is there such a rush to get things done? + +My guess is that TEAM (ROCKET) GME is in control. They're pushing these new rules and regulations. BUT, TEAM SUCK BALLS UNTIL YOU CHOKE is trying to gain more power and influence in the DTCC. With all the dates I mentioned in my[ other post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mmh9jq/why_is_the_dtcc_taking_so_long_to_act_when_moon/) coming up, things are getting down to the wire. + +It's clear that when you look at what's going on with the DTCC Board along with what's going on with GME, there are major forces at work behind the scenes that directly influence what will happen with us, the lowly retail investor. + +AND GME IS THE CATALYST THAT WILL SET THINGS OFF ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. + +\--------- + +**PART 8: PREDICTION TIME** + +So, the biggest question on everyone's mind is most likely, "Will rocket go BRRRR????" + +From the rules and regulations that are coming out, I'd say that team (ROCKET) GME is still in control. They want the rocket to go BRRRRR so that TEAM SUCK MY BALLS will go under and lose their ability to vote for the new DTCC Board and further increase their influence. + +\--------- + +**PART 9: BONUS TIME... Why JP Morgan Wants To Decimate Citadel & Have Control Of The DTCC... THIS IS EXTREME TIN FOIL HAT TERRITORY** + +This is random AND COMPLETE SPECULATION, but I didn't want to write another post. According to[ this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mo6i57/speculative_dddiscussion_who_will_ultimately_take/), there is some speculation that the NSCC might go bankrupt when GME moons. At first, that sounded wayyyy too far fetched... until I saw this rabbit trail of ideas. + +1.[ Paxos Has A Solution](https://www.paxos.com/what-lehman-brothers-gamestop-and-the-next-financial-crisis-have-in-common/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/kta6b185rks61.png?width=589&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae3463eac741f317b0dffce4e659d0b4440912e0 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lcj928u5rks61.png?width=583&format=png&auto=webp&s=74e80069746567dcd2e5b7632621652c356a8ff8 + +2.[ JP Morgan Is Pro-Blockchain](https://www.jpmorgan.com/solutions/cib/investment-banking/corporate-finance-advisory/blockchain) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fgv9f5v7rks61.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=d36aa34cbd1cec0c52eb0c240af1b27b8439e3a3 + +3.[ JP Morgan Is Looking For Crypto Help](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/daily/82334/jpmorgan-digital-asset-custody-subcustody) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/f32mjyk8rks61.png?width=790&format=png&auto=webp&s=17eb49b95639d55ef344c157935b45914de519c7 + +4. [Paxos Wants To Replace The NSCC](https://www.paxos.com/what-lehman-brothers-gamestop-and-the-next-financial-crisis-have-in-common/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/013lrm7irks61.png?width=549&format=png&auto=webp&s=d99fbb57e041f3057e21d27b315f4ed0631555df + +5. [Citadel Is Bearish On Blockchain](https://www.coindesk.com/citadel-ceo-ken-griffin-says-he-doesnt-know-how-to-think-about-bitcoin) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zrtlbefwrks61.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=e82974560555988ebe1fbe0f0da34b8596ecbebb + +Maybe this is why JP Morgan wants to bankrupt Citadel. If JP Morgan can gain control of the DTCC, maybe they can push Paxos (or even their own blockchain) to replace a bankrupt NSCC? + +EDIT 4: + +u/iamjustinterestedinu made this comment + +&#x200B; + +>Couple of days ago, another OP found that Paxos firm, and Paxos is already in a trial with the SEC for limited stock tickers to achieve a T+0 performance hence near realtime settlement of a trade, thus no longer needing the existing (costly) intermediates. +> +>Trades on a blockchain will be less expensive, faster and cannot be manipulated as dark pools (settlement within a firm) can't exist no longer as these cannot be added to a blockchain without consent of the blockchain. +> +>(OTC trades might still exist imho because of the same reason those exist today, not influencing a market unnecessary, the total volume added to the blockchain to complete the day) + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 5: + +u/kn347 made this comment + +>Paxos actually already got a letter of no action from the SEC (meaning the SEC looked at the action Paxos applied to take and said they wouldn’t get fined for it) — [https://www.securities.io/paxos-application-for-no-action-letter-from-sec-a-success/](https://www.securities.io/paxos-application-for-no-action-letter-from-sec-a-success/) +> +>It was to perform the first blockchain based transaction completely free from the NSCC system, and they just did that with **Credit Suisse** and and Instinet **Nomura**, reported by CNBC a few days ago on April 6th: +> +>[https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/04/06/paxos-completes-t-0-settlement-for-credit-suisse-and-instinet-nomura.html](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/04/06/paxos-completes-t-0-settlement-for-credit-suisse-and-instinet-nomura.html) +> +>Wonder what that transaction was.... on the blockchain and not through the regular NSCC system 🧐 + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 6: + +Found this article: [https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bye-bye-brokers-hello-blockchain-technology/](https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bye-bye-brokers-hello-blockchain-technology/) + +>To help you appreciate why intermediaries will try to block the economic benefits of tokenization, consider Ken Griffin. His equity trading firm, Citadel, handled about a quarter of all trading volume in U.S. equity markets last year. +> +>Per Bloomberg: “*The trading operation, which is separate from Griffin’s hedge fund business, generated $3.84 billion of revenue in just six months, more than the $3.26 billion for all of 2019, according to a presentation to investors. Net income was $2.36 billion in the first six months of 2020, compared with $982 million for the same period a year earlier*.” +> +>The enormous profits from Citadel���s equity trading operations are almost entirely risk-free! + +&#x200B; +Apes hear me out! + +&#x200B; + +I know we had some good news with the NFT crypto thing "announced" so it kinda makes sense that the stock price is going up. + +&#x200B; + +But the timing is very suspicious to me. Why you ask? If at the annual meeting (9th June) it will be announced, that the official voting numbers are way beyond the actual amount of shares (I am pretty certain it will be, however not 100%, because I assume that there are a lot of lazy motherf\*\*\*\*\* out there who don´t vote...BUT I TRUST YOU GUYS, VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!!!!!) ....BUT IF THEY ARE, then these couple of days are their last fucking chance before the real shitshow aka MOASS begins. + +&#x200B; + +When Ryan Cohen himself will prove that SI is at >100, 200, 300, 420, 669, 42069%, then they are FUCKED! Literally everbody will know the squeeze is inevitable (not only us) and will want to jump on the train which will further inhance the squeeze. + +&#x200B; + +...SO THIS MIGHT BE THEIR LAST CHANCE, SO PLEASE BE CAREFUL THE NEXT FOLLOWING DAYS. + +&#x200B; + +Seriously, even if the price goes to like $1k the next week, this might be them, trying to give it a last shot of a big pump and then SHORT, SHORT, SHORT, NAKED SHORT, NAKED SHORT, MEDIA MANIPULATION, JIM CRAMER THINGS and whatever... Maybe, just maybe people will panick sell and think that this was the real squeeze and then it's over... + +&#x200B; + +...so say it with me + +&#x200B; + +I.....WILL......HODL!!!!!!!!! + +&#x200B; + +Spread the word, my retarded ape friends. +As a young person i was poor, barely scraping by and this continued for many years. Looking at retiring at 65 in a few years. I have a bit of a nest egg, nothing like you guys have. +If anyone reads this sub and wonders if its a good idea, as a person who wishes like hell they'd been able to hear and follow the advice, I say you've got nothing but poverty to lose trying it! +I admire all of you. +So my husband and I are getting a divorce. We bought our house less than a year ago. He wants to keep it and I’m fine with that but worried how we go about getting my name off the mortgage. He has been the one paying for the mortgage completely but the outstanding loan is around 322,000, house is worth 343,000. He makes 55,000 a year. Mortgage is 1,800. Anyways we qualified for the loan back when we were both making full time wages (me 73,000/yr) after we moved I dropped my hours significantly. I guess what I’m wondering is what is the easiest way to get my name off the mortgage so I can go out and purchase my own property when needing to. What if he tries to refinance and they say he doesn’t qualify for the loan, what happens in that case? If it helps we live in MN. Thank you. +The rocket thrusters have been activated + +Moon bud is a community owned, rug-proof token, all liquidity has been locked for a year and ownership has been renounced. + +While only being less then 24 hours old, the thriving moonbud community has already managed to gain a hefty charity wallet worth $30,000 USD, dwarfing any other projects by a long shot. In the same timeframe moonbud has accumulated 1000 holders and reached a $2.5M market cap. + +The UK based lead developer plans to reveal himself in charity drive video next weekend in which he will be donating the full proceeds of the charity wallet to an animal shelter. If we continue to grow at this rate that wallet can be worth over $100,000 USD. + +Everyone here is still super early, with moonbud’s current growth it’s set to reach a 25-100M mcap in no time. + +All holders are pretty evenly distributed and there is almost no whales whatsoever, we’re now completely community oriented and going parabolic! + +My bags are packed and I’m ready to keep helping to give to dogs around the world! + + +Website(v2 next week): https://www.moonbud.space/ + +PancakeSwap: https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xbe8183612f145986a41ad8e8fcfefed1c2f9deba + +Telegram: https://t.me/moonbudofficial + +Chart: https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xbe8183612f145986a41ad8e8fcfefed1c2f9deba + +Twitter: https://twitter.com/MoonBud_Coin + +Bscscan: https://bscscan.com/token/0xbe8183612f145986a41ad8e8fcfefed1c2f9deba + + +UPDATE: We’re going viral! Over $80,000 USD raised, at this rate we can hit $500k in no time, we’ve only been live for 24hours now. + +EIGHTY THOUSAND DOLLARS, in twenty four hours folks. +So I just got a $1 per hour raise at work, which will almost cover the increase in my health insurance premium. + +Two family members gave me cash for Christmas, which I had to use to pay for a new car battery. Sigh, I had plans for that money. + +I got 4 lottery tickets in a Christmas card and won $14, that I cashed at the drug store customer service window. Then walked 6 feet away to the pharmacy window and handed over my big winnings for new prescriptions. + +But at least good things happened in the first place! Wishing windfalls, however small, to everyone here in 2019. + + +Hello world, this is the unpaid media news you were waiting for. + +Headline of the day: GME is down 13.60% on no news today and I will see every media outlet report about it, start asking yourself why. + +For more information, browse this sub. Ask yourself why a stock drops on no news and try to inform yourself about the stock market and the companies you are invested in. + +Have a good week and don’t forget to DRS. + +See you soon on the moon. 🦧❤️ + +Edit: Previous posts: [Friday news](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qxrvx6/gamestop_is_up_889_on_the_day_and_i_havent_seen/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf), [Monday news](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qzw0kb/gamestop_is_up_817_on_the_day_and_i_havent_seen/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +Edit 2: [Media report](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r0mzcx/finally_after_gme_surged_25_in_5_days_we_have/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) +I have $250K cash I need to park somewhere. Because of how everything is going on in the world it's possible I'll need it next year to keep the business afloat so I need the money to still be accessible. Interest rates for CD's and savings accounts both look pretty terrible right now. Is that just the way of the world, or given the amount of cash is there somewhere I'm not thinking about that I can park the money for a year? +Been shopping at thrift stores my whole life, this time of year thrift stores always have better than average quality of stuff. People donate older stuff that is still nice, just to make room for stuff which is brand new. It’s especially good if you want new clothes and shoes, there’s always lots of clothes still with tags people got as gifts but don’t like. Good luck! +[https://imgur.com/a/meJNh0v](https://imgur.com/a/meJNh0v) + + +(source: [https://www.commsec.com.au/mosttradedinternationalshares](https://www.commsec.com.au/mosttradedinternationalshares) \- our largest bank and brokerage). + +&#x200B; + +We Australians are so jacked, we're buying more of GME than Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook. + + +GME has transcended FAANG for both volume and buy ratio. + + +[https://imgur.com/a/GjJpSVo](https://imgur.com/a/GjJpSVo) +(LET'S FARKIN' GO!) + + +We've shoved all of our GME shares into our little pouches for HODL security, and this jacked Kangaroo has natural protections from all the super venomous and violent prey that surround us on a daily basis. + + +[https://imgur.com/a/bPCO7yK](https://imgur.com/a/bPCO7yK) + + + +Just you wait for the next "Technical Analysis" - you'll see the Roos jumping over the fence in no time. + + + +\* This is not financial advice. I am a kangaroo. You wanna fuckin' go me mate?! + + + +\--- + + +On a more serious note - you don't think that the Short Interest % is only increasing? When was the last time we saw any form of sell ratio that closely resembled the buy-side, even just for balance and parity of credits and debits? Price aside, we've been playing the fundamentals of float size this whole time and I cannot see much evidence of anything of this not becoming even more compounded and worse, let alone "rectified". +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Has anyone tried cloning the MF portfolio? +Meaning... +- pick a list of Flexi Cap MFs that have beaten their benchmark consistently for the last 5 years. +- take their monthly portfolio disclosure. +- pick the stocks that are common in at least 7 funds. +- take the average holding of the selected stock in all the funds shortlisted. +- adjust the weight to make the weight of all the funs 100%. +- calculate the number of shares you should buy of each company based on your investable amount. +- continue with the above process as a monthly SIP. +- Churn the portfolio (if any stock is not there in the list anymore) only once a year. Example Jan of every year. + + +If anyone has tried or any experience with such an approach, I would like to know about your findings. +Lately there has been a lot of global issues and inflation has certainly reared its head, and people are panicking like it’s some rabid animal that just got released to kill a bunch of sheeps dreams of getting rich. But its really not the issue at the moment, so let’s look at why. First off, we have bigger issues such as Chinas economy is slowing down and they appear to be doing everything they can to speed it back up but its just not working, we have people getting mortgages they shouldn’t be and can’t afford (In my shit opinion) and we have the US doing its own random shit which is always more important than whatever we are doing. + +Inflation is the necessary evil we need, because if we had deflation where things get cheaper the economy would go backwards and shit itself quite quickly. For anyone who doesn’t know much about inflation/deflation, imagine if you knew every year things like a car would get cheaper, well you wouldn’t bother buying one this year, because next year you could get a better one…and you can quickly see how this would domino out of control quite fast. So, deflation is not a solution for that simple reason, but inflation also needs to be controlled. If you want to give yourself a history lesson you can look at Nazi Germany where it got to the point it was cheaper to burn money than to go and buy the wood to burn, now obviously that’s a complete shit show and extreme, but even in current times we have countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela and even some like Argentina with insane inflation rates, and as you can imagine nobody wants to be like them. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/t9ty7ebnk0y71.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c384e67d9819b5a3d49ce9935121be208fa6fc7 + +So why does the RBA aim for 2-3%? + [https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html](https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html) + +Well, here’s a link to their website where they explain it in more detail and use fancy colours and graphs, but essentially stable and low inflation allows for stable and good economic growth, which is a win win for everyone. Now the issue is at what point do we need to figure out when to change it and how do we do that? Without going down the rabbit hole too much its all about interest rates, if inflation gets too high the RBA raises interest rates because people are less likely to borrow money and then money becomes more valuable. The opposite is also true, if the economy is doing shit, then interest rates get lowered…but wait we are at record low interest rates! EXACTLY!! Its almost as if inflation was expected, and if you combine this with the government also jumping and trying to boost the economy, a year or 2 of high inflation is expected. This doesn’t mean it’s a major issue, because if you are aiming for 2-3% long term and over the past 10 years we have not hit it, then a couple years of \~5% will help balance it out, but this is a bit of a shock and not what companies want. + +Companies who can’t control their prices don’t want inflation because it means less profits. Lets imagine you have a little lemonade stand which you sell a hint of coke in, now imagine the price to get all these supplies increases but you aren’t allowed to increase prices due to competition, regulations or whatever, well then you are the one who is going to get shit on and if you make no profits, you business dies and people will go another lemonade stand, even if it doesn’t have a hint of coke in it! So, if we can’t control the prices with high inflation what else can we do as a company? Well, you will notice debt is also cheaper surprise surprise, and so companies can take advantage of this and use the extra debt to force the growth and it’s a win win again!! Until you look at the balance sheet or interest rates rise, and they are forced to pay back more than they can afford and the company realises they are over leveraged. Once again just use the lemonade stand idea and imagine debt increases, your prices don’t and your profits go down…. well you will sink faster than the lemonade. + +So, What companies benefit from inflation rises? Companies which are resistant to inflation or companies which have pricing power and can adjust it if needed. To start with mining companies are usually quite inflation resistant because they are tied to the commodity price, this is why when we saw the recent commodity boom, even though inflation was a fear, nobody cared, and the stocks followed commodity prices. But companies which can take advantage of this are ones which are able to exploit the extra room for debt, increase prices, increase profit, and ultimately speed up their growth… okay yes yes, so what companies? Well, the one example I’m going to use is PME which I have done too much research and made not enough profit from, they have a tech which radiology and health care clinics can use and it has no competition essentially. So, if inflation rises, they can increase the prices as they make the money on a per usage basis, now obviously it’s a bit harder than that and there’s details, but that’s the general point. + [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlwyV3DYPHY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlwyV3DYPHY) + +Last and least important because they are boomer stonks are the banks, banks do well from interest rates increasing assuming one key factor, which is people can pay back their loans after rates have increased. If people can, then they get more money which means more profits which means more dividends and it’s a win win!! The issue comes in if people are over leveraged and start defaulting on loans and particularly mortgages which is what happened in the GFC, and the banks fucked themselves over and its really quiet a comedic shitshow from an outside perspective in terms of how the banks ruined themselves. + +Summary- + Ultimately inflation is not the devil you need to worry about, its China and the US because their economies are much more important globally and their growth is directly tied to us. If we have a year or two of inflation at 5%, presuming your company has quality management and doesn’t get fucked during the period, then it could provide some buying opportunities or just a different environment. Now this post doesn’t really explore the issue of interest rates rising/declining because this would just drag on, but ill probably do one on interest rates one day. The main thing to look at though is when will interest rates rise, how will this impact my company and are they over leveraged in terms of debt? If your company will do fine during inflationary periods and they are not over leveraged, then you shouldn’t be panicking wondering when the world will collapse. Just buy companies you like when you see good value and then figure the rest out, worrying about inflation is the RBAs job and they can’t even do that, so what chance have you got? Also its nice to be back retards +After this week and seeing the massive presence of members of the sub, I’ve been keeping track of how many users are online. The peak of this was 197,000 but we’ve been averaging about 150,000 for about two days straight. Today, the number has slowly declined to about 80,000 about 15 minutes ago. All of a sudden it dropped to 24,000 at 11:20PM. It’s safe to say that most likely 100,000 accounts here are either bots or old accounts used by shills to maintain an online presence. + +In accordance with other posts regarding this matter, please be prepared for massive FUD and vote manipulation in the next few days/weeks. I’m prepared to sort by new to downvote and report any funny business but it seems that roughly 1/3 of this sub is compromised in some way. + +Apes, we’re almost there. Keep them diamond hands. + +Edit: people are commenting movie subs have gone down from 40,000 online to 8,000. WSB is down too. I’ve been taking notes of that sub as well and the last I checked (around 10:00PM EST) there was 115,000 online. It’s currently down to 36,000. + +Edit 2 (12:14AM EST): To give everyone a rough estimate, between this sub, WSB, amcstock, and GME, roughly 200,000 “users” went offline within 10 minutes of each other. + +Edit 3 (12:19 AM EST): we’re back up to over 40,000 online users. Amcstock is back up to 22,000. WSB back to 46,000. Roughly 45,000 “users” just logged back on in less than 5 minutes. + +Edit 4 (12:22 AM EST): in 3 minutes from my last edit, we just jumped to over 70,000 online users. + +Edit 5 (12:37AM EST): I’ll be keeping better statistics of the online activity of this sub and will try to make DD on it this week. If anyone would be willing to PM the exact number of online users at the top of every hour tonight until 8:00AM EST, that would be much appreciated. + +Edit 6 (12:41 AM EST): Amcstock just shot back up to 32,000 online + +Edit 7 (1:09AM EST): For those who suspect its Reddit-wide, I’ve been following the stocks and stockmarket subs for the last hour as well. Stockmarket has remained at 2,250 online and stocks has remained at 7,500 online for the last hour. I find it very suspicious that only the meme stocks are having intense fluctuations of online users in the last two hours. This sub has been subject to the most fluctuation by far with around 50,000 “users” coming back online within ten minutes of each other (time window from 12:14AM EST to 12:22AM EST). + +Edit 8 (7:25AM EST): I just want to thank the apes that commented and PMed me times and online user statistics while I was asleep. You all are the realest. I promise I’ll release my results this week with hour by hour information as well as the growth rate of the sub. + +Edit 9 (8:29AM EST): changed flair to possible DD. I think it fits the posts more so. +>Intel Corp. data-center sales sank more than expected in the third quarter, sending shares down 10% in after-hours trading Thursday. +> +>Intel [**INTC,** **+0.74%**](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/INTC?mod=MW_story_quote) reported a decline in profit and revenue from the previous year, while slightly raising its full-year forecast but missing expectations for its fourth-quarter sales outlook. Shares dropped to less than $49 in after-hours action immediately following the report, after closing the regular session with a 0.8% gain at $53.90. +> +>The chip maker reported third-quarter net income of $4.3 billion, or $1.02 a share, down more than 28% from $5.99 billion, or $1.35 a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for restructuring and acquisition-related costs, Intel reported earnings of $1.11 a share, compared with $1.42 a share in the year-ago quarter. Revenue fell to $18.3 billion from $19.19 billion in the year-ago quarter. +> +>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated adjusted earnings of $1.11 a share on revenue of $18.24 billion, while Intel had forecast adjusted earnings of $1.10 a share on revenue of approximately $18.2 billion. +> +>The company said that it now expects adjusted earnings of $4.90 a share on sales of $75.3 billion, after previously stating $4.85 a share on sales of $75 billion. +> +> +> +>[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-stock-plunges-10-after-earnings-show-bigger-sales-drop-than-expected-11603397818](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-stock-plunges-10-after-earnings-show-bigger-sales-drop-than-expected-11603397818) +We know what you did + +We know what you’re doing + +Enough apes in a room finally wrote Shakespeare’s Macbeth and you’re surprised? + +Stop wasting money covering up your mistake. You work in a risky business and you’re acting like a toddler who lost his binky, but it’s obvious you’re running out of energy. + +Pay us our money. We’re ready for this to end whenever you are. + +The fact is, we can drag our knuckles and eat bananas longer than you can stay solvent. That’s not a hope, that’s not a request. We can continue to wait and watch your lives crumble, your families leave you, your reputations dragged through the mud. + +We don’t care about you because you don’t care about us: We are dumb. We aren’t on the inside. We don’t *really* know how it all works. We are poor, meme-obsessed millenials who don’t work a day in our life, right? Wrong. + +You don’t contribute to our society in any real way. Your cocaine-fueled imagination is not a gift to society. You aren’t smarter or stronger than us, you’re just high as balls, self-important, and lack common human decency. You’re willing to break the rules at the expense of others and that’s all. + +Me and my fellow apes want the GAME TO STOP. We like the stock, and we don’t believe you should have the power to kill companies with impunity, especially ones that prove they can utilize a second chance. We don’t believe you should sell things that you can’t deliver because that’s common fucking sense. + +You can do it whenever you want, so do it today. Pay me. +[PLTR stock data.](https://imgur.com/a/T5V7OEy) + +As the US market is on holiday, the rest of the world seems to be joining in the feeding frenzy of PLTR. + +Stocks jumped to $32.55. + +The stock has already more than tripled in price since its direct listing. + +Could this bull run continue in Friday? I don't know. + +But I continue to believe in the stock in the long term(next 5-10 years) due to its unique positioning in the market. +[PLTR stock data.](https://imgur.com/a/T5V7OEy) + +As the US market is on holiday, the rest of the world seems to be joining in the feeding frenzy of PLTR. + +Stocks jumped to $32.55. + +The stock has already more than tripled in price since its direct listing. + +Could this bull run continue in Friday? I don't know. + +But I continue to believe in the stock in the long term(next 5-10 years) due to its unique positioning in the market. +Update....... I just get a call from BECU and they said they will give me the loan directly without the middle man, the dealer. They acknowledged that the Dealer was wrong so they will cancel that application and they will also remove the credit inquiry from my credit report. This is a win for all of you. I thank you each of for your advice and support. Thank you ♥️ + +************************ + +Hello friends, basically my Honda lease was due and I had to make a decision. I decided to buy the car. I went to the dealer and they run my credit, basically, they want me to pay $5000 more if I want to own the car and buy it off.. They also want me to finance through their preferred bank which has 5% interest rate. According to them, my credit is an excellent and yet they want me to have higher interest rate, I requested to check BECU through the dealer and they run one more credit check and they said BECU offered you 2% interest rate. + +Okay, now we agreed on the interest rate but what about the balance, I thought I only awe 19k, where's the 5k coming from? Well, it's the taxes and dealer fees and license fees and so on. + +Okay, fine, I went to my local BECU Credit Union to take the loan directly from them and then pay honda without dealing with their dealers. + +The Local BECU Credit Union already saw my application from the dealer, they showed me that they already approved 24K through the dealer. I told them I don't want to go through the dealer because they're charging me 4k Extra, if I can get the loan from you, I will have to pay only 19k plus taxes, that's 21k to be exact, that's 3000 dollars difference. + +The local bank said they will contact the dealer and they need to resolve the dispute between me and the dealer, they're saying the dealer should not charge you more than 19k plus taxes, that's the amount you awe according to the Honda buy out the form. They said they will contact the dealer tomorrow and then they will call me back after that. + +Is anyone experience this situation before? +I won't sell a single damn coin during this downturn. I'll let it go to zero before capitulating. I didn't get into Ethereum as a normal investor, I got into this as a true believer, and that is what I am today. (Yes, I'm a verified moonkid, trolls - check back with me in a few months and a few years, and let's compare notes). + +Ethereum grabbed a hold of me in a way that no other technology ever has. Its potential inspired me. I could feel it in my bones, and I still do. So I don't treat my investment in ETH as a stock or a mutual fund - I treat it as a bet on a better future, on something big that requires vision and balls in order to stay the course. + +When this thing turns back up... hold on tight, because you are going to see something truly extraordinary. Or you can try to time the market, sell now and panic buy as the exchanges shut down and you are stuck with fiat. + +But I'm ready to sacrifice all of my dear profits all the way down to the bottom, because like Kaiser Soze I'd rather kill my dear coins entirely than give up hope and sell into this Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. + +(And don't forget to secure your coins off exchange in a hardware wallet) + +There are a LOT of posts with a LOT of comments bashing people and dedicated mods that were at the meeting right now. Are these shills? Are you a shill? Am I a shill? Who knows. But I do know that we need to be nice to one another and not cause a divide. That is what they want. + +I also, please, need a lot of you to check your reaction to female attendees at the meeting, because there seems to be a lot of hate against women - the way their voice sounded, what they are wearing, questioning whether one in particular is actually a lawyer because she got excited at a price bump. This is not Superstonk behavior, its WSB behavior. And this is NOT WSB. + +BE NICE TO ONE ANOTHER. Clearly Ryan Cohen ended it on a good note by saying buckle up so none of this is as big a deal as you think. + +Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. + +EDIT: I think the fact that this is blowing up just shows that we are all good people who genuinely want the best for others. In the same way we should question but not condemn people for how they did or didn't behave at the meeting, this post is to serve as a questioning and not condemnation of people who got ahead of themselves in their criticisms of such. Let's forgive and move on (unless you are a shill, then fuck you) + +merp, OUT! *\*mic drop\* \*fog machine\* \*explosions\** +So let me preface this by saying this: I save 25% of my paychecks, and get paid bi-weekly. Despite that, I know that if I had one checking account I would regularly forget how much money I had for play. Before I opened extra accounts I would regularly forget when my bills were coming and had to dip into my savings because I spent more than I had to cover my ass when the auto-pay came. + +I currently use Ally Bank as my main account. I have no issues with it and would recommend it for those looking for an online banking account. But I had money issues having just one account, as I described above. I also had no way to deposit cash/count coins so I figured I would kill two birds with one stone. I opened a Republic Bank account for a brick and mortar and to handle my health insurance auto-pay. + +I then saw a promotion for Capital One 360 Checking, I decided to move my car payments there, while taking advantage of the $100 bonus they had. + +So now three of my important auto-pay bills are separated and paid into the minute I get my check. The money is removed instantly, so I now have a more accurate representation of my spending money. Rent gets paid immediately with my second paycheck of the month regardless of what day it falls on, so that is also removed instantly. + +The premise is to separate important bills that auto-pay into separate accounts that are paid into instantly, but taken out at a later date. This clears up any confusion of how much I truly have to spend for play in my checking account. It's helped me save a lot of my hair from falling out and maybe it'll help some of you guys/gals. + +Edit: Woke up with 80+ inbox replies. Glad a lot of you guys also found use in this as well =) +Indian fintech CRED launches peer-to-peer lending feature Mint + +The Bangalore-based startup said on Thursday that CRED users can now lend to one another at an interest rate of up to 9% annually. + +Kunal Shah, founder and chief executive of CRED, said the startup is rolling out this feature, dubbed CRED Mint, initially to some users after testing this internally for months. + +“We’re super excited about this because it’s the first time our community members will be able to invest in one another directly. It’s going to focus on high-quality, low-risk, but much better, inflation-beating returns you can get on your money,” he said in an interview with TechCrunch. + +[https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/19/indian-fintech-cred-launches-peer-to-peer-lending-feature-mint/](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/19/indian-fintech-cred-launches-peer-to-peer-lending-feature-mint/) +Hi FF, + +I'm moving to Cape Town, South Africa. My rent and per diem expenses have gone to zero with a new executive role. + +I want to live within my means but also adapt my lifestyle to the change in circumstances, the allocated rent budget means I can now live in what would cost millions in San Francisco, a beachside four victorian 15 minutes from the CBD. + +I'd love to hear if others working in developing countries, but with savings or a 1st world salary invest in extras like domestic staff, for example, they cost around $20 for a day locally. +*Some personal background:* + +I'm a 21M Spaniard, getting a Vocational Degree in Logistics. + +Currently I am living with my parents and have no financial obligations of my own. + +Last month I got to intern at a local railway company, for which I got paid 1000€. + +*** + +I know almost nothing about investing or what I should do with that money. + +The only thing I'd want to buy myself with that money is a new PC, but my old one is fine for now. + +One thing that's clear to me is that I want nothing to do with Crypto. I won't dwell into this too much, but from a personal standpoint I don't like it in general. + +*** + +Should I get started on the stock market? Should I keep that money in my bank account? + +I am probably not going to earn another 1000€ until next year. But as I said before, my parents pay for my every single other expense (for which I am very thankful and lucky for), which means I am neither broke nor bettering myself from a financial POV. + +*** + +Any advice is appreciated! +Link to a Tweet of Hudson: https://twitter.com/hudsonjameson/status/1097546558332121088?s=19 + +I hope Afri is not in serious danger. I am very grateful for what he has done for the Ethereum community. Maybe he was with one foot out the door already. Afri did not make the impression on me to back away from some criticism. + +By the way I am strongly against the personal attacks against Afri. However, there were also some valid critical comments against Afri's statements and actions. You cannot just take the stupid overly-aggressive and personaly attacking outliers and say: "Oh yeah the Ethereum community overreacted". + +Of course there are some idiots who attacked Afri personally, which does not help anyone and I am sure the majority of the community agrees with me. But there is also no denying that there was valid and constructive criticism coming from the community, which also had a lot of support. + +I wish Afri all the best for the future and if he makes his mind up what he really wants and which projects he wants to fully support, and one of them happens to be Ethereum, from my side he is always welcome. Maybe a little break is good for everyone, the community to calm down some stupid idiots and Afri himself to gain more perspective on his goals and outlooks for the future. + +English is not my native language, so sorry for all the mistakes :) + +Thank you Afri for your hard work. + + +Hi Reddit, + +I am seeking wisdom on the best route toward financial stability and my own sanity/peace. + +I’m currently living in my father’s basement. I have a space for my bed and my music equipment. I have access to a bathroom and a closet. I have no access to a kitchen. The rest of the basement is filthy and littered with his belongings that he wants to go through before I would throw anything out. I have tried getting the ball rolling with cleaning up but he keeps putting everything back down there. My relationship with him is toxic. We do nothing but yell and bicker at each other. He treats me like I am his servant. I pay $400 a month. I have asked to renovate the basement (with my own money) and he has denied it. + +I am 24 years old. I have a temporary position that pays $2600 a month. I have $7000 saved. I have an apartment on hold from the market for me. The rent would be $1183. I would have to pay for gas/electric, internet, and my phone. I also have to pay for public transportation and food, etc. The position I currently hold seems like I will be a permanent hire but there is no guarantee. I don’t make a lot of money but I can for survival into the budget. + +I am unsure of whether or not I should lose my mind, suffer mentally, and save money living under his tyranny or if I should become independent and free while suffering financially. + +Not every detail is included here, I wanted to be somewhat brief. Reddit, what should I do? +My best friend and I both live in San Diego, where we simply can’t afford a home on our owns even after saving our entire lives & growing up here. +We decided to buy a duplex so one would occupy each unit and we’d be neighborhoods, not roommates. + +Well we JUST got an accepted offer and now things are real. +We’d put down the same down payment, and everything would be even. + +Ideally this property will be investment, we live in it for a few years then move on and rent it out for a profit. + +MY QUESTION HERE IS: +Now I keep hearing things like “you sure you wanna buy with a friend? That’s make things bad down the road”. + +I mean people buy with their spouses all the time and that’s two people. I know that’s a huge difference lol but assuming we are both mature women who’ve been friends since age 15, what are the real risks here ? +I feel like ppl just assume we would fight but if we don’t, what am I not seeing. + +Remember it is a duplex, that makes it better ya? Haha + +Begging for feedback. Thank you! +I have a SFH in Cleveland. I just got message from my tenant that the doctor has found some lead in her child's blood. What's a good strategy to be followed here? Of course the child could have got lead from anywhere and the tenant signed the lead paint disclosure but don't also want anything to happen to the child either. Cuyohoga country provides some assistance ([https://www.geshercleveland.com/benefits.../housing/763-2/](https://www.geshercleveland.com/benefits-assistances/housing/763-2/?fbclid=IwAR0e8kPwQujyFiq-Hm5MC7k8bO3J9guJwM5AKPoU8hNR2lYO2nUmwrUt5MM)) but it means I have to disclose it when selling the house. Any suggestions on handling this situation? Thank you. + +Update: + +An update and also adding some more context. I did not want to take risk here and I did reach out to a lawyer and asked him to speak with the tenant. And as one of the comment below said, it does look like she is freaking out and the lead in the child's body is within the limits. The lawyer expense was an added expense but this is an issue that I didn't want to take risk on. As the next steps, because of the tenant's low income AND also a child less than 5 living in the house, the house qualifies for an inspection and costs that come out of the inspection. The tenant has calmed down since then after being explained by the lawyer and me and agreed that inspection and fixes of what the city can offer is good enough for her. Thank you all. +Good news for FTB. + + +Major lender extends 'Helping Hand' scheme beyond former 10% deposit limit + +It could help those who struggle to meet affordability criteria  + +Borrowers must fix their mortgage for five or 10 years + +Experts warn of negative equity risk and higher monthly repayments  + +Source : This is money + + +I think on balance, this is good news for FTB. Or will it contribute to further increase in house prices? + +What do you think? + +Edit : The general consensus here is that it's a bad thing. But I am sure many potential FTB would rather this arrangement than paying rent. + +And if not this then what? The govt is not building enough affordable social housing so something has to give. +Starting early today due to premarket volatility. + +GME press releases today: + +[GameStop Announces Preliminary Sales Results for the First Nine Weeks of Fiscal 2021 Reflecting an Approximately 11% Increase Compared to the Prior Year Period](https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-preliminary-sales-results-first-nine-weeks) + +[GameStop Announces At-The-Market Equity Offering Program](https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-market-equity-offering-program) + +Obligatory: HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! HOLY MOLY! +I want to invest in tech because it’s booming right now but Let’s say Tesla is no longer growing because it’s overvalued. Will my etf dump Tesla and buy a stock that’s currently rising instead? Or will my etf continue to be dragged down by underperforming stocks? +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +I'm really interested to see what my fellow smooth brains are thinking here. Just an open discussion...markets closed anyway so fuck. + +I'm usually all about 🖕🌈🐻 but I can't but feel very bearish about the market in the coming weeks. + +I was up till 6am watching the NYSE S&P having a slippery dip most likely due to the wsb and GME extravaganza. + +Considering we follow wall st the same way a rat follows the pied piper we could be about to see a red wave washing into our tendie shores. + +There are a number of reasons and theories as to why the the price war on wall st is driving down the market - I don't think it's that important at this stage to bog down in the details (or maybe it is? Fuck I dno). + +But I think it's a good idea to be prepared for some fukn heavy losses. +Am I recommending a mass sell to hold cash? No. +Cash is the safest position and there's nothing wrong with it. But I'm not your father. +Am I recommending diamond hands till you die? Well that's really just your other option. + +I'm currently weighing up my positions but preparing to feel the burn to get fukt royally. So I'd love to hear other people's thoughts. + +At this stage I'm 💎🐋 cos fuck. Only lose when you sell right? + +And hell MAYBE we get a fukn great week on the asx come Monday! I'd love that. + +And I'm done. Be safe y'all. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +I frequently notice Swedish stocks which I consider to be in "great valuation" territory and I thought to do some writeups. Are Swedish stocks interesting for the crowd here? Can you even access Swedish stock market through your broker outside of Sweden? 🙂🙏 +UPDATE 4: POLYGON/MATIC JUST TWEETED ABOUT DARK MATTER $DMT!!! HOLY SSHIT! + +[https://twitter.com/0xPolygon/status/1374721620351197185?s=20](https://twitter.com/0xPolygon/status/1374721620351197185?s=20) + +UPDATE 3: New Partnership and more updates: [https://twitter.com/FERAStrategies/status/1374672789228097539?s=20](https://twitter.com/FERAStrategies/status/1374672789228097539?s=20) + +UPDATE 2: Just Listed on Exchange: [https://twitter.com/Bilaxy\_exchange/status/1374678872235462662?s=20](https://twitter.com/Bilaxy_exchange/status/1374678872235462662?s=20) + +[https://bilaxy.com/trade/DMT\_ETH](https://bilaxy.com/trade/DMT_ETH) + +(For those of you who are unfamiliar with UniSwap/QuickSwap.. MUCH Less Fees aswell!!) + +UPDATE: WE'RE MOONING!!! 🚀 🚀 <3 Congrats everyone + +&#x200B; + +Polygon/Matic platform based NFT ecosystem! + +I know you're thinking I'm completely full of shit comparing this $2M market cap diamond in the rough to the $2B market cap king of the jungle that is Enjin. + +But tell me *this.* + +With the success of Enjin, a blockchain ecosystem built around gaming, **what comes next?** Sure, I got Chain Games too, gaming in crypto is a safe bet to keep mooning. But bigger than that, what do you see? + +For me, **if Ethereum is a strip mall, with different boutiques you can visit, then Enjin is the Best Buy across the street.** It developed it's own niche and ecosystem and became a place people go to for specific reasons, not just something to window shop by. + +And Best Buy managed that because it **wasn't content being another boutique**. It didn't set its sights on manufacturing goods and selling at small brick & mortars. It thought bigger. It aggregated products from several manufacturers and **challenged the mall at its own game.** + +This isn't selling the pick axes to miners in the gold rush. This is renting space to pick axe franchises. + +But blah blah blah you're not here for top 100 coins. You're here for the little brothers. The ones that swing harder and occasionally surge past. That's why you want Dark Matter now. A team that sees the bigger picture when everyone's lost in the forest of small-scale rugs. + +**A team that wants to be a true giant. The only way to 1000x is here my friends.** + +Dark Matter involves an already functioning ecosystem that creates profit-sharing opportunities by rewarding all liquidity providers a share of revenues generated across the platform. Much like how all of the Enjin dApps are powered by ENJ tokens, $DMT will be linked to the value of the collective enterprise. + +**This essentially allows your retail investor to own the mall rather than a store in it, collecting revenues from each project that benefits from the collective success of the ecosystem.** + +**Again. This isn't Auntie Anne's, this is Best Buy. This is the mall. This is god damn Amazon.** + +Dark Matter also naturally creates incentives for partnerships and allows projects to work together to build something bigger rather than tear each other down for scraps. This commitment to community is sure to be attractive to new projects looking to establish themselves in a friendlier space. + +With this, the team is already working on several additions themselves to fill out Dark Matter since we are still extremely early, with the first project launched on the last day of February! + +The[ Million Pixels Project](https://millionpixels.io/), an homage to the[ Million Dollar Homepage](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20160914-the-man-behind-the-million-dollar-homepage), already shows the ingenuity of a community and builder-oriented ecosystem. The 1000 x 1000 pixel grid is actually separated into a million different NFTs, each one fully controllable by the person who buys it. Meaning that you can buy up a plot and decorate it as you please, or coordinate with your neighbors to build a bigger image. **At its finest, this could be a consistently shifting piece of art that is edited by a million different people! How amazing of a story would that be? (For your children, and for CNBC...)** + +**And this is just the start.** + +There's so much opportunity here at just a $2M market cap, a previous ATH 2x the current price and nice rounding action on the chart. With the full 9,999 supply currently circulating, the price at a touch under $200 could easily make the next leg up to $1,000 if the bull market keeps running. + +But of course, I want to be clear, this is no pump and dump so DYOR, invest with a long-term mindset and enjoy the gains as holding is the only way to win with the way the rewards are set with this one. And maybe build a little something yourself! Projects are welcome for consideration in the Dark Matter community and the devs highly encourage reaching out. If we build it, gains will come. + +Oh yeah, also there's gaming, NFTs, buzz buzz, buzz word, buzz buzz. + +Website:[ https://darkmatter.finance/](https://darkmatter.finance/) + +Medium:[ https://darkmattertoken.medium.com/](https://darkmattertoken.medium.com/) + +Discord:[ https://discord.gg/wwXt4kXkh5](https://discord.gg/wwXt4kXkh5) + +Telegram:[ https://t.me/darkmattertoken](https://t.me/darkmattertoken) + +ETH address: 0x79126d32a86e6663f3aaac4527732d0701c1ae6c + +Uniswap :[ https://uniswap.exchange/swap?inputCurrency=0x79126d32a86e6663f3aaac4527732d0701c1ae6c](https://uniswap.exchange/swap?inputCurrency=0x79126d32a86e6663f3aaac4527732d0701c1ae6c) + +Coingecko:[ https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dark-matter](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dark-matter) + +DYOR. +So, we all knew today was going to be a battle for the $180 point because of the options expiry on this date. Lo and behold, right before we got to the $180 marker at 1:30, we got pushed down pretty intensely. + +Now, we had seen a few weeks back a bunch of negative trades at settlement in after hours at 4:15, and then suddenly that stopped. But when the trade volume was exceptionally low, we kept seeing trades disappearing from minute to minute. So if there's a large red candle, and you refresh your stonk tracker du jour, that total is always reduced, as though the trades are counting towards the price movement LIVE, and then they disappear, never to be settled. + +I don't know how often this happens with other stock, but I've been waiting for a good window of price crush to analyze this, and here are my findings: + +|**Time of Candle**|**Trades on ATP**|**Trades after Refresh**|**Difference**|**Percentage Reduced**| +:--|--:|--:|--:|--:| +|1:30|14038|7505|6533|46.5379684| +|1:31|15968|10817|5151|32.2582665| +|1:32|15718|9173|6545|41.6401578| +|1:33|13881|9107|4774|34.3923348| +|1:34|13592|8883|4709|34.6453796| +|1:35|12204|8380|3824|31.3339889| +|1:36|9101|6341|2760|30.3263378| +|1:37|5228|2576|2652|50.7268554| +|1:38|7000|3850|3150|45.0| +|1:39|11962|7834|4128|34.5092794| +|**Total for window**|**118692**|**74466**|**44226**|**37.2611465**| + +Now, I'm not that wrinkly. But a reduction of 37% of shares traded feels like an awful lot over a ten minute window, especially because the price got pushed down from $179.01 to $176.81 in that time. Someone please take this information and explain to me the following: + +1) Is this abnormal for other stocks? + +2) Does this sort of trade erasure happen throughout all points of the day, regardless of price movement? and + +3) If it does, is the percentage outside the bounds of normalcy? + +Also, I have comparative screenshots before and after I refreshed, if anyone wants them (can't figure out how to insert them into a text post (using old.reddit). + + +**Edit:** formatting. + + +**Edit 2:** If someone knows a lot about the details of how a trade is recorded and settled, that might go a long way to understanding how someone might execute trades on a market, and then never settle them. And if we can figure that out, we can figure out how they might be continuing to control price movement without generating additional failures to deliver, that they eventually need to deal with. It's just kicking the can down the road (so buy and hodl is still the only move) but if we can make this manipulation visible enough, then the DTC/SEC etc. might make some more rules to cover their own asses. + + +**Edit 3:** There's another one happening right now, just after 3pm. If anyone has their tracker open and wants to make a table to collect the trades per candle, then refresh and confirm, I'd be grateful. + + +**Edit 4:** Ok, so here's a longer table for the drop at about 3pm, started a couple minutes before, and then continued a few minutes after the drop. Oddly, the first minute of my comparison (2:58) goes UP by 488 trades, not sure what's going on there. But the rest of this window (despite significantly lesser trade volume per minute) also lost over a third of its trades to thin air, 33.7% + +|**Time of Candle**|**Trades on ATP**|**Trades after Refresh**|**Difference**|**Percentage Reduced**| +:--|--:|--:|--:|--:| +|*2:58*|*1086*|*1574*|*-488*|*-44.9355433*| +|2:59|10680|6620|4060|38.0149813| +|3:00|8877|6147|2730|30.753633| +|3:01|7638|5463|2175|28.4760408| +|3:02|4040|2276|1764|43.6633663| +|3:03|1123|300|823|73.2858415| +|3:04|5742|3469|2273|39.5855103| +|3:05|14137|9413|4724|33.4158591| +|3:06|6941|3421|3520|50.7131537| +|3:07|1400|400|1000|71.4285714| +|3:08|10122|7009|3113|30.7547915| +|3:09|19993|15334|4659|23.3031561| +|3:10|17033|12622|4411|25.8967886| +|3:11|9385|4692|4693|50.0053277| +|3:12|5745|3967|1778|30.948651| +|3:13|3793|1959|1834|48.3522278| +|**Total for window**|**127735**|**84666**|**43069**|**33.7174619**| + + +**Edit 5:** I will stop adding these edits now, but someone messaged me suggesting I clarify my system/app. I'm using Fidelity's Active Trader Pro, my system is very stone age... watch for dip that in my mind appears artificial, note the time and trades on the candle for each minute of sample, then refresh GME by going to another stock and coming back, then do the same for the same window. Subtract second column from first column to get third column, then divide third column by first column. + + +**Edit 6:** Ok, I did one more, the last twenty minutes of the day, as that's when a large push of trades come in: + +|**Time of Candle**|**Trades on ATP**|**Trades after Refresh**|**Difference**|**Percentage Reduced**| +:--|--:|--:|--:|--:| +|3:40|5393|3021|2372|43.9829408| +|3:41|3660|1400|2260|61.7486339| +|3:42|4256|1969|2287|53.7359023| +|3:43|14540|10569|3971|27.3108666| +|3:44|3112|2276|836|26.8637532| +|3:45|7986|4525|3461|43.3383421| +|3:46|10259|5583|4676|45.5794912| +|3:47|7403|3020|4383|59.2057274| +|3:48|13216|9047|4169|31.5450969| +|3:49|4994|2737|2257|45.1942331| +|3:50|12788|6109|6679|52.2286519| +|3:51|6643|5711|932|14.0298058| +|3:52|10461|6547|3914|37.4151611| +|3:53|8715|5028|3687|42.3063683| +|3:54|20718|13574|7144|34.4820929| +|3:55|14052|7064|6988|49.7295759| +|3:56|22864|14152|8712|38.1035689| +|3:57|15971|9353|6618|41.4376057| +|3:58|18372|9805|8567|46.6307424| +|3:59|24747|15651|9096|36.7559704| +|4:00 (3:59:59)|33340|23234|10106|30.3119376| +|**Total for window**|**263490**|**160375**|**103115**|**39.1343125**| + + +**Edit 7:** Some formatting and grammatical corrections. + + +**Edit 8:** I'm a moron and my tables were formatted at the wrong decimal place... corrected. Thanks u/bryanthecrab +I’ve been seeing a LOT of posts about “not caring about price anymore just in it for market change.” + +And memes about how exposing illegal practices and market manipulation is all they’re thinking about. + +This narrative is bullshit. + +Change all the rules you want and put another bandaid on the system all you want AFTER this shit squeezes to kingdom come. + +I’m in it because I see great potential in the company with the possibility of a squeeze. + +If this exposes and forces the world to take what these criminals do more seriously, great. + +But that’s not why I’m in it. I’m in it to get fucking paid. I’m in it because these funds got caught with their pants down and there balls are now being held in a vice grip. + +I’m in it because I took the risk after doing my own research to see there is real potential with this company and a very real potential in an FTD and short squeeze. + +WARNING: If this narrative keeps being pushed it opens a door for a possible escape route. + +Example: SEC cracks down, Citadel is thrown under the bus, they expose their naked shorting and force Citadel to reimburse every synthetic share at current market value. Most likely driving Citadel to bankruptcy, or close to it, and containing the fall out. + +How can apes be mad? They got their justice! They exposed this massive market fraud and we have fixed the issue and the retail investors were protected! + +Stop upvoting and pushing this narrative. +We bought it 2 years ago and found out about it being sold on the internet only a few hours ago. We don't know how long the ad has been up but it's not on the site of the realtor we bought it from... any advice? + +**Edit: Ok... Time to disappoint a lot of people.** + +First of all, thank you to everyone here for the overwhelming response we had. A lot of great and precious advice. + +I have to clarify a few things as well: + +- This isn't happening in the US. Sorry. Sorry. I'm sorry. When I posted this on here I didn't realize that it was based in the US, we wanted as much advice as possible. All the time you spent writing advice wasn't wasted though, because it seems mostly applicable here too; the terminology is just different. +- As a few of you pointed out, no one is "selling" my house without my permission. It's just a listing. Still worrying but not as much as the title implies I guess. +- I am not behind the "scam" (if this turns out to be one). I'm not a realtor and I don't think posting about it on Reddit would be the greatest idea. + +Now for the update part: From what I've read across the 250 or so comments in my inbox (haven't gone through all the replies yet), this could be one of 3 things (from less likely to most likely): + +- An actual scam. Someone is trying to forge documents to gain ownership of the house or something. I haven't really understood the whole process of this one but it's still possible. +- A bait & switch listing, used to get interested people to call to visit the house. Then the realtor tells them it's not available right now but "here are some other houses we can take a look at". We think this one is what is actually happening. They might be taking (or keeping) old ads on their website just to have a good quantity of them so people come. +- An error. Honestly the most likely. The pictures are from 2 years ago when we bought the house. The house is not currently for sale anymore and someone could have forgotten to take the ad down. The price is the same as when we bought it too. + +All in all, this is probably just a fun ride and we're not likely to lose our house that way (thanks for pointing that out, it's reassuring). + +We will call the realtor as potential buyers, saying we're interested and want to visit the (our) house. If they remove the ad it was just a mistake. If they answer offering to take a look at other houses we will send a formal letter asking to remove the listing. Same thing if we don't get an answer. + +Either way, I will keep this post updated. + +PS. I realized that this should have been posted on r/legaladvice instead. I don't think I can just move the whole thing now but if the mods want to remove it because it breaks the rules I'm ok with that.. + +Thanks again for all the replies, advice and to everyone who shared their experience! See ya in "Edit 2" probably + +_Will update when I have something to update_ +GG also only talked about looking into one stock. + +DFV only talked about one stock. + +MSM have only kept one stock out of the news cycle or when discussed it's discussed only negatively. + +I know it, you know it. + +It's GME + +All other "memestonks" are distractions with weak/shill leadership and even weaker fundementals. + +This is why we do not discuss them or post screenshots with them. It's super simple. + + +GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME +GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME +GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME +GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME, GME + +Buy and hold GME. + +Edit: David Lauer has bought GME. + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/naoqr9/bought_some_gme_yesterday + +Some bees in bonnets below. Pop po out in force for some reason, on a GME sub, from accounts with no GME post history. Goes to show ya folks + +Edit 2: There appears to be brigading happening in the comments! Remember apes, don't touch the poop and upvote your mates! + +Edit 3: sticky floor folks need to chill. No one even mentioned y'all and suddenly theres a bunch of people defending them by name. Doesn't seem sus at all... + +Some serious aggression coming out. GME apes being polite and as awesome as ever, love you guys :) <3 + +Those that hold both: hope they both pay off for you. I'm just stating facts + +**Edit 4**: wow a lot have come out of the woodwork saying suspiciously similar things. Very similar things infact! Almost scripted.... + +Edit 5: Got my first ever suicide prevention message. Thanks guys :) x + +**Edit 6: I want to be clear: I hope *everyone* makes some bank. Fact is fundamentally GME is the only real play if: you want an awesome company, want a great leader and team, want to stick it to the man, and want to actually *invest* in a company and not only bet a squeeze. My 2 pennies :)** + +**If you believe a stock is a memestock that's on you. I don't believe GME is a "memestock" by any stretch other than it's popular.** + + **GME is *the* stock!** +[McDonald's reports](https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/mcdonalds-share-price-what-to-expect-in-q2-results?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=investing) its worst global sales decline in recent memory, with drive-thrus and delivery unable to make up for the blows from pandemic shutdowns and consumer caution + +McDonald's CFO Kevin Ozan says in Q2, nearly 90% of sales again came through the drive-thru + +[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-28/mcdonald-s-shares-fall-after-reporting-plunge-in-global-sales?sref=Hny5JH2p](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-28/mcdonald-s-shares-fall-after-reporting-plunge-in-global-sales?sref=Hny5JH2p) +[McDonald's reports](https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/mcdonalds-share-price-what-to-expect-in-q2-results?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=investing) its worst global sales decline in recent memory, with drive-thrus and delivery unable to make up for the blows from pandemic shutdowns and consumer caution + +McDonald's CFO Kevin Ozan says in Q2, nearly 90% of sales again came through the drive-thru + +[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-28/mcdonald-s-shares-fall-after-reporting-plunge-in-global-sales?sref=Hny5JH2p](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-28/mcdonald-s-shares-fall-after-reporting-plunge-in-global-sales?sref=Hny5JH2p) +Hey All, + +I’m looking to get ahead of foreseeable problems facing my retired parents (68, 69) and sister with disabilities (since birth). They currently rent in an expensive area ($3k/mo) and spend beyond their means (always have). They ran out of money about a year ago and did not hesitate to ask me for financial assistance (this was before they claimed retirement/began withdrawing from pension). They have no assets and are relying on social security, disability, and my father's small pension. + +They currently withdraw social security/disability, which amount to roughly $2900 a month. They also withdraw $5k/mo from my father’s pension which has roughly $240k left. Obviously this is not sustainable and will most likely be depleted in 3-5 years. + +Here’s the thing: I know what needs to be done but it is so difficult to get through to them. I will try hard to get them to consider moving to a LCOL area, start budgeting and reducing their pension withdrawal rate. I am not looking for advice that they can use to better their situation, but advice for me personally for how to handle their future well-being. The reality is I need to make preparations for if they let their pension get depleted and only start receiving social security/disability. What would people here recommend me look into? I could purchase a home in a LCOL area and let them live rent free. Are there any options I could exploit given my sister with disabilities (Section 8)? + +Any advice would be helpful! Thank you. +[https://www.reddit.com/r/place](https://www.reddit.com/r/place) + +# [https://halfdane.github.io/rplace/](https://halfdane.github.io/rplace/) ---- GO HERE + +This will show you coordinates, and you place the tile based on the coordinates here. When you mouse over, it gives you the x and y axis - IF YOU CLICK THE TILE, IT WILL BRING YOU TO THE CORRECT TILE!!!! Then pick the correct color and place it :) + +# How to use the Github program: + +&#x200B; + +[click the tile](https://preview.redd.it/a4ljs4mt7zq81.png?width=279&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b09f539f7dbee0d55bb19119b69c7f3f6c4a7e9) + +# when you click on the tile in Github it will bring you to the same tile on r/place + +https://preview.redd.it/viaip0xj1zq81.png?width=729&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5c63cb74e4323972a5789a3247f542754837536 + +# Click on "place a tile" + +# Choose the correct color and place the tile! Wait 5 minutes, then do it again!!! LFG! + +# JOIN US IN THE DISCORD TO HELP! [INVITE HERE](https://discord.com/invite/hgJmtEeJ) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ttcrsu/no\_april\_fools\_jokes\_rplace\_is\_back\_and\_well\_get/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ttcrsu/no_april_fools_jokes_rplace_is_back_and_well_get/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +original post + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEPlace/comments/tt6mty/updated\_gme\_rplace\_strategy\_please\_provide/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEPlace/comments/tt6mty/updated_gme_rplace_strategy_please_provide/) + +# Strategy + +Beginning of [u/ChippThaRipp](https://www.reddit.com/user/ChippThaRipp/)’s [post about the strategy](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEPlace/comments/tt6mty/updated_gme_rplace_strategy_please_provide/) (there are more details within about how [r/place](https://www.reddit.com/r/place/) actually functions): [https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEPlace/comments/tt6mty/updated\_gme\_rplace\_strategy\_please\_provide/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GMEPlace/comments/tt6mty/updated_gme_rplace_strategy_please_provide/) + +Efforts will be prioritized based on the position of a component within the image above, this is to ensure that we get at least one key component on the canvas as it’s a large undertaking and we’re unsure how many people will actually help out (hedging our bets). + +* **Priority 1: Gamestop Logo** +* **Priority 2: GME Ticker** +* **Priority 3: DFV** +* **Priority 4: Loopring and Immutable** + +Please check out the post from Ripps above, as it goes into A LOT more detail. + +I’m sure many people with have lots of different feedback, bring it to the discord - it’ll be chaos, fun chaos though. As said before, people have put a lot of effort into coming up with this design and building out the strategy, so if you do have feedback - try to make it actionable straight away as things will move fast. + +This lasts until April 4. LFG!!!! +Article: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/28/70percent-of-american-investors-wish-theyd-handled-money-different-in-2019.html + +CNBC is always biting at the bit to post a new doomsday indicator or tell you why this or that bear says the market will crash in six months. Bears should be held accountable and given a healthy dose of skepticism, not the front page. Invest regularly and don't wait six months for the crash that may never happen. +I do not hold crypto, although I obviously wish I did leading into this market. + +The biggest problem I see with crypto is its propensity for corruption behind closed doors. Elon and his friends can simply setup a gentlemans agreement to cycle between coins, leaving retail holding the bag every time. Don't bother doing your research--that costs at least a couple million for an annual membership at the country club. + +Stay safe with your investments and stick to solid principles. +I was looking around for a better deal and getting quotes. The person from Budget Direct on the phone said because I’m a risk. Where’s the risk? I didn’t create the situation for the person behind not looking and rear ending me. Other insurers don’t ask this question in their sign up process. I understand if I was at fault. Sure. But not at fault. Common...got to be a ripoff. +What are some companies that y’all see hitting dividend aristocrat/King status in the next 10-20 years? I like investing in stable companies but the companies of today might not be the ones of tomorrow(cough cough AT&T). Are there any companies that seem to be planning to head towards that line but aren’t quite there just based on timing? +u/fudgiegood + +Scammer, dude runs a paid group in which he alerts wheeling cycles but he has no credentials. + +Be wary of him in this group. He kept trying to flex level 3 naked options access as to why he’s legit. When I proved to him I had it in exchange for a call to question him about how qualified he was, he gave me a fake number and blocked me. + +Also I looked into his comment history and he’s been harassing this other guy that called him out and said it was ridiculous to charge for covered call alerts since it’s cyclical strategy that shouldn’t require a paid service. Like he threatened to call his university over that....dudes got an issue +Hey everyone, this is my first post here. I am somewhat new to stocks in general. I burnt my fingers on the sprt/gree merger and lost about halv my savings on it. The rest is still in ETFs and I’m not looking to free up that money. I would like to open a new account sized around 1-2k and build it up, learning on the way. What strategies would you reccomend? I have a basic understanding but if you could try and go into detail about how to execute the stragey it would be much appreciated. Thanks already! +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. Please keep ALL conversations contained to Gamestop and related topics. + +**Not enough karma?** Here's a [**quick guide**](https://zapier.com/blog/how-to-get-karma-on-reddit/) on how to get it. + +# [announcements](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/announcements) + +* Make sure to check the Announcements regularly. 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Does anyone understand that if I told you there was a marketing firm with 125k ORGANIC users (no bots) that would signal boost any effort you made as a company, how much that firm would be worth? That kind of organic, authentic outreach? Billions. + +What about a firm with thousands of QA testers who will work to find AND report any and all bugs in as much detail as possible within seconds of release? How much is that worth? + +What about if you could get a diverse collection of customers to provide feedback on any new initiative you launch? A collection of customers even more motivated than you to see your product succeed and exist at its best potential? Pretty valuable no? + +All three of those firms exist as 1 entity EXCLUSIVELY for GameStop. A year and 2 billion dollars later I think it's pretty fucking clear that they aren't going anywhere. The ONLY reason you haven't seen any of the above is because GME is playing it close to the chest until they're ready. And because we're in such fcking sync with next to no communication needed, it means when the strike comes, it's going to be like LIGHTNING. + +Yet in all the analysis I've seen, NO ONE gives the above the consideration that it's due. You underestimate GME and it's shareholders at your own peril. YOU DO NO WANT TO BE SHORT THIS STOCK. +> https://seekingalpha.com/article/4349297-uber-announces-much-diminished-tam +> +> +> UBER’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi once sold UBER as the next Amazon, promising that “cars are to us what books are to Amazon.” Link here. Khosrowshahi, who was Barry Diller’s top salesman for a decade, pitched the taxi-hailing app, repackaged as “rideshare”, as simply the first step on a journey to global domination. UBER would enter and dominate “food delivery, freight, autonomous vehicles, and even buses and bikes”. Later, he added flying cars. By 2023, Khosrowshahi continued, UBER could run the entire transportation network for a city! As recently as UBER's latest 10-K, filed in February, UBER characterized its Freight business as "revolutionizing" the freight industry. And now they are simply going to shut it down? None of these promises have ever happened, of course, and with this week's forced retrenchment, likely never will. +> +> Severe and unsustainable cash losses have forced UBER to ratchet back its strategic ambitions; to raise another $1.0BN of junk bonds at a steep 7.5%, and reduce on-the-books headcount by at least 25%. UBER will likely cut its "non-core" businesses, including freight, autonomous vehicles, flying cars, artificial intelligence, and job matching. These businesses, together, were the secret sauce that was to turn a simple and old-fashioned taxi-hailing app into the next big thing, rivaling Amazon in the scope and reach of its operations. These promises were what drew investors as big as Texas Pacific Group and Softbank in at valuations north of $70BN and even promised to approach $100BN - for a business that, in the here and now, is only able to generate revenues of $14BN, with growth slowing sharply, while margins remain massively negative, and billions of cash losses pile up - and that best case was pre-COVID! +> +> Now, UBER faces a sharply diminished TAM, or total addressable market, as it gives up its ambitions to expand beyond taxi-hailing and food delivery, and major American and international corporations in various industries, including technology, media, real estate, airlines, hotels, and entertainment destinations all prepare us for a world of sharply diminished transportation needs. Where workers will shift to permanently working from home; where international travel will be diminished for years; where even domestic destination travel will face diminished capacity and utilization. +> +> None of this has yet sunk into the minds of equity market investors. +> +> THESIS +> +> Diminution of Total Addressable Market. Uber is likely abandoning its ambitions to be a leader and create a revenue generating business in nearly every area besides its core taxi-hail and food delivery business. These early-non-core businesses, while inchoate and pre-revenue, gave investors hope that UBER was not just an old-fashioned transportation company making use of the latest technology - smartphone apps - but an actual technology company, with the same opportunity for horizontal expansion as Amazon. This hope was among the reasons why a negative cash burn of several billion dollars for a seemingly mundane business could turn into a $59 BN valuation. That hope is gone. +> +> For its remaining core business, taxi-hail, the world has changed: +> +> Negative Secular Changes to UBER’s Core Business +> +> First, we start with the massive secular change we are witnessing in the American workplace. Then, we move on to the lengthy and even semi-permanent changes to restaurants and travel. +> +> We are witnessing a generational acceleration in work-from-home, in which commuting to and from work is facing the biggest and fastest change in its history. Companies such as Google, Square, and Twitter are preparing for a future in which employees may work remotely – forever. Others such as Facebook, JP Morgan, Citibank, American Express and Microsoft have taken steps in this direction. Employees who commuted to these workplace jobs were often customers of UBER. Many of these customers and their "rideshare" business won’t come back. Here is a sampling of recent headlines that will negatively impact UBER - for at least several quarters in some cases, permanently in others: +> +> First, Twitter. This one is permanent: +> +> +> +> Next, we have Square, also offering permanence: +> +> +> +> Now, we turn to Facebook, who for now, is only planning until the end of the year: +> +> +> +> Now we will shift to the banks, which are not only continuing work from home, but also seeking semi-permanent shifts away from urban centers, another hit to UBER's business: +> +> +> +> Citi is but one example; the list goes on and on, and is only growing by the day. +> +> Next, we have buy in to work from home from the media, who indicate that working from home is the right thing to do: +> +> +> +> And the NY Times weighs in on the nascent trend: +> +> +> +> +> +> +> +> We also have consultancies now adding their voices to the chorus of work from home: +> +> Surveys also indicate there is a new and growing movement for work-from-home accommodations. Global Workplace Analytics, a leading authority on integrated work at home strategies, recently published a report in which they forecast that as much as 25-30% of the workforce will be working from home by the end of 2021. See the full report here: +> +> Work-at-Home After Covid-19-Our Forecast - Global Workplace Analytics +> +> These are the thought leaders. We are witnessing a tsunami of potentially permanently lost taxi-hail business for these former commuters. While some of the headlines may say only through 2020, these arrangements are likely to be made permanent in many cases. +> +> And now, the rest of the ride-share customer universe: the restaurant, travel and leisure industry have been decimated, with full year 2020 volumes estimated to be down anywhere from nearly 20% (fast food) to 40% (hotels) to more than 50% (airlines and certain destination-based entertainment.) +> +> Obviously, none of these industries by themselves comprise UBER's exact customer base, but taken collectively, they are representative of what has happened to the total addressable market: it is severely impaired. +> +> Selected Peer Group Performance 2020 +> +> Throughout the latest strategy retreat, 25% work force reduction, revenue collapse, junk debt capital raise, and multi-billion dollar cash burn, one thing stands out: UBER’s high flying stock, which has surged this week along with the NASDAQ market to a new high for the year of $59 billion, now up 16% on the year. Stated another way, stock buyers have treated COVID-19 and its catastrophic impact on UBER’s revenues and margins as a net positive catalyst. This stands in stark contrast to the many other companies operating in and round UBER’s universe, including hotels, airlines, lodging, office space, and even other “unicorns". +> +> We highlight the 2020 changes in valuation of numerous companies that derive revenues from similar underlying strategic drivers as UBER: commuting to work, commuting to airports, commuting to leisure activities, commuting to restaurants and bars, and commuting to vacation. We lay out the year to date equity returns, followed by consensus changes to 2020 forecast revenues. Every data point indicates UBER’s valuation change is completely inconsistent with its related peer group. +> +> First, we frame UBER’s equity valuation change year to date, along with the consensus expectation for 2020 Revenues, and list how they have changed, showing the January 1, 2020 consensus estimate, followed by the current 2020 consensus estimate. +> +> As you can see, UBER is up 16% year to date, while its 2020E Revenue expectations have been reduced by 29%. +> +> +> +> Then, we turn to the various comparably impacted industries, as described above. We start with Airlines, as airports are a primary source and destination of UBER customers, and note the average hit to airline valuation has been 66%, while the average expected hit to revenues in 2020 has been 56%. +> +> +> +> Next, we look at Hotels, a common destination and origin for UBER customers, where you can see the average hotel has taken a 39% valuation hit, while the expected revenue decline is 40%. +> +> +> +> Office REITS, which we also use as a proxy of demand for commuting to work, have seen an average 42% decline in valuation, with only a 5% hit to revenues. Here, the financial forecasts are out of sync with the change in valuation. Even the out years look similar. Expect the numbers to come down, significantly. +> +> +> +> Restaurants are a large and fractured group, and we chose McDonalds as simply a directional indicator: +> +> +> +> And finally, the still-private “unicorns”, who bear much structural similarity to UBER, particularly AirBnB which also was forced to fire 25% of its work force, and to reduce its strategic scope to “core” operations while giving up on growth opportunities. Here, you will see that AirBnB recently took a 52.6% hit to its private market valuation since 2019, and WeWork took a 60% hit to its December 2019 valuation (which was itself an 84% hit to its January 2019 valuation). AirBnB’s CEO also wrote a letter that sounds nearly identical to UBER’s CEO “I’m-sorry-but-you’re-fired, our business is collapsing” letter. +> +> +> +> The overall context should be clear: UBER's entire ecosystem has experienced a volume and valuation collapse compared to UBER's year to date double digit stock price growth. This stock price growth is inconsistent with the underlying data. +> +> We specifically concede that none of these companies are perfect comparables, but all derive revenues from a similar ecosystem: the home-work-travel-leisure nexus, and their customers must be transported somehow to their offices, their hotels, their airports, and their leisure AirBnB vacations. Together, they paint a picture: UBER’s equity price has largely ignored the reality of a collapsed ecosystem, and is the only related equity that not only has not collapsed, but is actually UP double digits on the year. +> +> Will UBER’s business come back? Absolutely, some of it will come back. The travel/airline/hotel transport nexus actually has the highest probability of coming back, but the longest lead time. These won’t see even a near-full recovery for several years, in line with forecasts for hotel and airlines revenue. The most at risk revenue is actually related to work commuting: many employers are in the process of shifting to permanent work-from-home arrangements. UBER will never recover this revenue. Much of the work commute revenue IS NEVER COMING BACK. Thus, UBER's TAM has shrunk. +> +> UBER's Core, or The Remaining Businesses +> +> What do the taxi-hail, or Rides, and Eats businesses really look like on a stand-alone basis? What are they worth? +> +> UBER shows a separate revenue and "adjusted" EBITDA figure for each of its remaining core businesses. +> +> Here is a snapshot of historical revenue breakdown: +> +> As you can see, the Rides business represents 72% of total revenues, and its growth has flat-lined near zero. Now, this included 2 weeks post-COVID shutdown, so we can assume it may have been able to reach a positive low single digit growth number. Eats grew at a low double digit number, and represents around 19% of total revenue. +> +> EBITDA is not as straightforward, as many adjustments and exclusions are made. What we know with certainty is that the consolidated business produced negative $2.468 billion of EBITDA for the last 12 months. As for segments, UBER shows a positive $2.460 billion of Rides EBITDA, but that excludes more than $4.0 billion of stock-based compensation, and it also excludes more than $2.5 billion of un-allocated corporate overhead. See worksheet below: +> +> +> +> The exclusions are of such a magnitude as to render the supposed $2.46 billion of EBITDA to be nearly meaningless. Could they have generated this without paying out $4.0 billion in stock compensation? Did the $2.5 billion spent on general and administrative, and R&D have any impact on the Rides business? Of course it did. These numbers can no more be excluded than any business can disown its business expenses! +> +> So we have a 11-year old business whose top line growth has settled in around a low single digit number that currently loses $2.5 billion a year in consolidated EBITDA. Should they cut $1.0 billion of costs, that is helpful, but the enterprise would still be losing more than $1.0 billion on an adjusted-EBITDA basis. The Eats business loses money and remains hyper-competitive. It is likely to continue to lose money for the foreseeable future. +> +> So where could UBER's EBITDA number go? This is difficult to say. UBER is hoping to break even on an adjusted-EBITDA basis sometime next year. While I am doubtful that will happen, even it it did, we would have a low growth business in a highly competitive market that at some point in the future could grow that break-even EBITDA into a billion or a few billion of EBITDA. What is that worth? We can look at a range, but unless growth suddenly shoots back into the 20% range or higher, its hard to see a slow growing EBITDA in such a simple business with no barriers to entry commanding a double digit EBITDA valuation multiple. Let's call the midpoint 10x. So 10x 2022E or 2023E EBITDA of $1.0 or $2.0 billion is $10 - $20 billion of enterprise value. And remember, that while UBER can shut down much of its non-core growth/upside assets, it can not simply get rid of its $9BN debt pile, including the recently raised $1.0 billion of junk debt that pays a steep 7.5% coupon. +> +> If we generously ignore the Eats losses, assume net debt in 2 years will be maybe $4 - $6 billion, and the share count remains the same (which is overly conservative), then we are left with the following valuation, which indicates an equity value that ranges from $2 to $11: +> +> $ billions +> Valuation 2022E 2023E +> Adjusted Company EBITDA $1.0 $2.0 +> Multiple Enterprise Value +> 8.0x $8.0 $16.0 +> 9.0x $9.0 $18.0 +> 10.0x $10.0 $20.0 +> 11.0x $11.0 $22.0 +> 12.0x $12.0 $24.0 +> Less: +> Net Debt ($4.0) ($4.0) +> Equity Value +> 8.0x $4.0 $12.0 +> 9.0x $5.0 $14.0 +> 10.0x $6.0 $16.0 +> 11.0x $7.0 $18.0 +> 12.0x $8.0 $20.0 +> Shares Outstanding (billions) 1.734 +> Equity Value per Share +> 8.0x $2.31 $6.92 +> 9.0x $2.88 $8.07 +> 10.0x $3.46 $9.23 +> 11.0x $4.04 $10.38 +> 12.0x $4.61 $11.53 +> (Note, these multiples are very high for a time period that is at least 2 years into the future.) +> +> Conclusion +> +> The market is wrongly ascribing a $59 billion equity valuation for a Company that is collapsing its workforce, reigning in its growth ambitions, and signaling much diminished growth in the future, while it bleeds down cash to the tune of more than $5BN a year. It is faced with a nearly insurmountable $9 Billion junk debt pile. +> +> With this week's announcements of strategy retrenchment and narrowing of its business opportunity, UBER is potentially worth $2.31 to $11.63 per share, compared to its current $34.48 price. +> +> Disclosure: I am/we are short UBER. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. +> +I'm 25F and my boyfriend and I would love to buy a house eventually. The only debt I have left is around $13K on my car loan, which I plan to have paid off in 2 years, but my bf has a ton of student debt left. + +My question is, how much should we save to buy a house, and how do we save that much? Typical houses in our area are between $300K and $400K.. Putting 20% down just seems absolutely impossible, as neither of us currently have much savings due to paying off our debt and spending $1650 total per month on rent and utilities. If we each can save $20K in 3 years, that's still not even enough for a down-payment on a one bedroom, one bathroom house.... + +I'm getting very discouraged :( + + +I’m 50 yr old (blue collar, female clerk worker) My house is finally paid off (hooray) I just went from making 15.79 to 19.50 (😊) an hour. I have just under 30,000.00 in 401k. 16,000.00 in a savings account. $17,000.00 in combination of IRA CD, and target fund. My house needs the shingles replaced. And the bathtub replaced. Part of me, wants to put that extra money into my 401k to built it up. Or use part of my savings and the extra money to fix the roof and bathtub. I would love to retire at 65. But not sure if I could. What do you guys suggest? +At the time I'm writing this, SNAP is up 59.18% in AH trading due to earnings. That's insane! Like yes ok they made profit for the first time but does that REALLY justify 60 friggin percent move????? + +Likewise Facebook losing net users for the first time, does that *really* justify an overnight 20% dump? These are not penny stocks, they're big tech and these moves represent huge changes in market cap. + +What the hell is going on? +Tech guy here. So I’ve been exploring new career positions and it’s been going very well. That said, my significant other is a private practice doctor and doesn’t get half the benefits as they should, pay included. Honestly, it’s a bit baffling at our compensation discrepancy and sick/time off benefits. They recently had an incident that made us both wonder how they’d even go about looking at other options. Time is also very limited for her, so she can’t scroll LinkedIn during patient visits. + +Now I know it’s not as easy to jump and go as it is in the tech world and there a lot more to the process. Is it really just stay at the same practice whole career? + +Doctors in private practice: are there recruiters for you all? How did find the best fit? What resources did you use to explore new options? + +Also, can someone explain their experiences with partnership? Was it worth it vs being an employee or breaking off on your own? + +Edit: clarification; pediatrics in AZ + +Thank you all in advance. +So my question for you all is whether or not you had experience trading at all before moving onto algo trading. I currently don't, and can't either way because I work in hft on trading systems, so I'm legally barred from doing any sort of trading whatsoever. + +&#x200B; + +I've been working on implementing an algotrading system; and have been looking into alpaca, alphavantage, and quantconnect. However my concern is whether or not I need to have the requisite trading experience already. My finance knowledge is limited to what I pick up on my job, which is CS and Networking Heavy. But I have no knowledge of technical indicators or trading strategies. Have never used Robinhood or IB or any of the other brokers. This is a problem for me because I'm not an immersive learner. I can't digest information as well for books or lectures. I learn far better from actually doing, and in this case would be actually trading on robinhood or a workstation. I'm well versed in statistics, machine learning and the CS side of things which is the only good thing I have going for me right now. But with finance, I'm a little rough around the edges + +&#x200B; + +What do you guys suggest I do? And if you have any resources or links for learning the non-programming related fundamentals that helped you, that would be great +Bought my house late last year, real estate agent just called me and said they've had an enquiry about it and they'd like to see if I'm willing to sell, name a price. + +I own the place outright (~$500k), I quite like it, and it is in a major regional centre where the market is going nuts rn. I don't really want to move but if the price is right.... + +How to play this? Took me completely by suprise. +The Mods have done a hell of a lot to clean this place up.! There are a ton of high quality DD and catalyst threads now and more information to conduct actionable trades and actionable trading analysis! The “your thoughts?” posts which are generally also known as the “please do my DD for me posts,” are disappearing quick and are fewer and fewer. I just ran across some crazy awesome DD [ADMA](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/h7qljf/some_dd_for_adma/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;utm_name=iossmf) too! I see people are also starting to identify risks! Thanks fellas for cleaning this place up. Love what you’ve done with it! As a result we are better informed and more likely to be profitable! Your work will have real effects for the members of this sub! Can’t thank you enough. +The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases. + +This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever. + + +# How economic news is released + +First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. *Initial* in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week. + +The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020. + +In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially *no* consensus. + +The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots. + +No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners. + +Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup. + +Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. [FinancialJuice.com](https://financialjuice.com) provides a *free* audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price! + +*Important* - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them! + + +# How the news affects forex markets + +Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent. + +It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an *unexpected* result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast. + +Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators. + +Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market. + +The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US. + +Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like [TradingEconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar). + +Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles. + +I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as *another* major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. + +[USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)](https://imgur.com/zRbLLJo) + +[USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)](https://imgur.com/y2sG9ZP) + +The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all. + +For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak *positive* correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is *long* USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and *short* USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected. + +The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up. + +I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here. + + +# Backtesting + +So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report. + +Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters. + +**Entry speed**: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk. + +**Minimum surprise**: Should you trade *every* release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not. + +**Hold time**: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one. + +**The spread**: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest. + +**Stops**: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered. + +I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize *net* profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized. + +For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... *drumroll please*... **-0.0093 yen per unit per trade**. + +Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot. + +Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from. + +Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... *drumroll please*... **+0.1306 yen per unit per trade**. + +That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage. + + +# Make it real + +If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for **all** of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day. + +Some benefits of trading this way: +* Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. +* It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see *exactly* what to expect your return to be. +* It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. +* You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." +* No crayons involved. + +Some downsides: +* It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. +* The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. +* Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world. + +I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try! +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/what-citadel-s-ken-griffin-thinks-of-russia-ukraine-sanctions-markets-crypto](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/what-citadel-s-ken-griffin-thinks-of-russia-ukraine-sanctions-markets-crypto) + +Free link! [https://archive.fo/87J3q](https://archive.fo/87J3q) + +Ken Griffin gave an interview today. A big nothing burger for the most part. + +"He’s also increasingly been in the news for his exploits outside of Wall Street. Griffin gave $20 million to a [Republican candidate for governor](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-14/citadel-s-griffin-gives-20-million-to-illinois-governor-s-rival), bought a rare copy of the [U.S. Constitution](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/ken-griffin-s-son-told-him-you-have-to-buy-the-constitution) at auction for $43.2 million — beating out a crypto-funded bid in the process — and described the rush to embrace cryptocurrencies as a “jihadist call” against the U.S. dollar (His view on digital currencies has since evolved)." + +The typical look at me type crap. Heavy spin on trying to come out looking like a good billionaire. + +**Here is what caught my attention.** + +"Griffin — who grew up mostly in Florida and went to public high school in Boca Raton —  also spoke about **the prospect of Citadel Securities going public**, the leadership of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the best advice he’s received." + +This is what we call a bread crumb. Giving a hint at something so later the reader isn't surprised. Sure enough later on in the interview they drop the next nugget. + +"**Should anybody think that Citadel Securities might go public?"** + +"That’s a reasonable assumption. One of the ingredients that Sequoia brings to the table is helping my management team really understand as a public company what will be different than how we run our business today as a private company. And of those differences, some will be positive, some will be negative. We need to understand those differences and embrace them if we’re going to go public down the road." + +**How do I interpret this?** + +Ken and the other owners see the writing on the wall and its time to punch out. They have laid the groundwork to start the process of going public and they are going to absolutely fuck over any investor that puts money into this company. We saw how this went with Robinhood and for a brief moment the stock was on fire for a short time then reality hit and it is where it belongs, in the dumpster. I don't know if this is an attempt to liquidate all 50 owners shares or if they are looking for Billions to try and navigate their horrendous time bomb of short positions. + +TLDR + +Ken is prepping the public to take his company/s public. + +&#x200B; + +**Edit:** A lot of comments suggesting that them going public is a good idea. I don't want to be rude but this is either misguided or shills trying to sell us that this is a good idea. I cannot repeat this enough, "This is pure evil." + +* Your parents who are invested in their 401k through work with their life savings have no idea that their financial advisor moved part of their retirement into this safe, bulletproof investment. +* Your neighbors who worked at a great company and have a pension are also invested in this because Ken sold the leadership who control the pension fund on what a safe investment this is. +* The general public have heard of Citadel now and decide to invest in a safe and stable company. +* It might even be your money and you wouldn't even know it. Do you want your tendies to come from your parents, neighbors, the general public and possibly yourself? + +In all these scenarios the general public and average person is devastated when it collapses. There is also no recourse when they shut down the company or sell it for pennies. Ken and Co are trying to shift liability to the general public and run for the hills. It reminds me a lot of what Enron did. Many good people will be directly hurt though this. I don't want their money. They didn't create this mess and don't deserve to pay the price for unchecked greed. This is a golden parachute for Ken and Co. + +**Edit 2:** Look at the link I posted. No where in the title was anything about him going public. If you go to the link now it is boldly highlighted that they intend to go public. Wonder why they changed the title of the article. They replaced his views on crypto in the title to one of him going public. It wasn't apparent they intended to go public when it was first published, it was hinted at in the article. Now its bold front and center for the title. What made the author change this it completely changes the meaning of the article and validates my intuition that this was their intention all along. Give a glowing positive interview and prep people for a public offering. +So I have been involved in this subreddit for a while now and have been able to observe many trends or commonalities in all of your portfolios. Most of the time you all are doing pretty well, or at least I think so. However, there are a few things that keep popping up in this group that I whole-heartedly disagree with, and today I want to share one with you all and get your opinions. + +I’m talking about $T. $T is probably one of the more common dividend stocks that I’ve seen on here and I just can’t for the life of me understand why. First off, I’d like to start with some financial ratios and metrics because I’m a financial analyst as my day job (at JPMorgan) and thats what we look at first. Here are some that I’ve pulled out in particular for you all: + + + +$T + + + +Dividend Yield: 6.83% + +Payout Ratio: 104.12% + +Div. Coverage Ratio: 96.05% + +3yr Div. Growth Rate: 2.0% + +10yr Div. Growth Rate: 2.1% + +Profit Margin (PM): 8.70% + +Cash Flow/Share (TTM): $5.99 + +Current Ratio (CR): 0.76 + + +So these are just a few that I wanted to pick out and highlight as reasons why I would never suggest investing in $T right now. First, lets take a look at the Payout Ratio. Seeing a payout of over 100% is extremely concerning to me right off the bat and this alone would usually keep me from investing. This payout means its paying out more money in dividends than it’s making as a company. Next, the Dividend Coverage Ratio, which is almost the opposite formula from the payout ratio. For $T, the dividend coverage ratio is only 96.05%, which means that its earnings can only cover 96% of the dividends it pays. This again is extremely concerning. Next, when we look at the dividend growth rate on paper with no context, 2% and 2.1% is solid. However, when we consider the fact that this growth has overtaken $T’s net income growth, so it is now paying out more than it makes, this is very concerning for the viability of the dividend going forward. + +With all of that being said, it is hard for most people to gain insight based purely off of those numbers above with no context, since most people don’t sit in front of a computer looking at company financials and data like I do. So in order to give you all some context, I have put together the corresponding information for a few of $T’s biggest competitors, namely $VZ and $BCE. + + + +$VZ + + +Dividend Yield: 4.44% + +Payout Ratio: 55.06% + +Div. Coverage Ratio: 181.62% + +3yr Div. Growth Rate: 2.2% + +10yr Div. Growth Rate: 2.6% + +Profit Margin (PM): 14.4% + +Cash Flow/Share (TTM): $8.58 + +Current Ratio (CR): 0.99 + + + + +$BCE + + +Dividend Yield: 5.99% + +Payout Ratio: 96.05% + +Div. Coverage Ratio: 104.12% + +3yr Div. Growth Rate: 5.1% + +10yr Div. Growth Rate: 7.1% + +Profit Margin (PM): 13.36% + +Cash Flow/Share (TTM): $6.10 + +Current Ratio (CR): 0.88 + + +So now that you all have some context on $T’s performance, you can clearly see that, in some of the most important metrics for dividends and profitability, $T is behind 2 of its main competitors. The only metric/ratio that $T is better in is its dividend yield, which is concerning because its long-term profitability is very much at question and this could greatly jeopardize its dividend going forward. + +I believe that a lot of people see that almost 7% dividend and the big, established name of $T and think “It must be safe because they’ve been around a long time and always grow their dividend.” But a deeper look into their financials shows that this is not the case at all. + +So I want to pose the question to you all: Now that you have seen this, what are your thoughts on $T? Will you still invest in it? Will you sell your current shares? Will you conduct further research on your own? All opinions are welcome and I’d love to hear whatever you have to say. +&#x200B; + +[Our shares only safe haven](https://preview.redd.it/km6ijs2ydv291.jpg?width=795&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2e9c03b02765c02a7858666f2bebe48a2766cfb5) + +I would like to adress a few words to my loved sub regarding the soon to be known, new DRS numbers. + +I remember a huge wave of tried FUD and disappointment when DRS numbers got released back in March and we "only" had 8.9 Million shares DRSed. + +What a lot of people did not realize was the fact - as stated in the filings - that this number was not the state as of March (Earnings Report) but from End of January. Lots of DRSed shares had not been bought, transfered or settled and at the time we received this number, we're already more and more DRSed and were hugely enjoying the latest dips. ($InsertSlurpingHomerNoises) + +The same will probably happen tomorrow - i guess that the number will be 2 months old again and the latest dips and waves of DRS will already have increased that number of direct registered shares by a huge amount. + + +DO NOT FALL FOR DISAPPOINTMENT OR FUD tomorrow. Stay focused. Stay calm. Stay zen. +Hey beautiful apes, this is just starting here! We are a bunch of countries and millions and millions and millions of possible apes in the making. + +Trends here are powerful as shit. Just look at what one new reggaeton song does. You get all the busty latinas dancing like it’s an ape mating ritual. + +GME is more than a trend. It’s a well documented, DD intensive, mathematical movement! + +If GME doesn’t give you a hard on like watching a Latina doing “perreo” to a Bad Bunny song, i don’t know what else will. + +When we moon 🚀🚀🚀🌑🌑 (very soon) I will throw a dancehall perreo party and stream all the sexy latinas dancing to the beat of GME. + +The second party I will invite all the APEs to a private Island in Panama’s Pearl Islands Archipelagos in the pacific coast and go crazy!! (Im well known for throwing sick parties with the hotests girlss around!!). + +Remember, HOLD and VOTE! The floor ir $10milliom!! GME to the moon!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + + + +Edit 1: missed my mexican friends 🇲🇽🇲🇽 +Edit 2: of course how am i gonna miss all my papis. 🇵🇷🇵🇷🇵🇷🇵🇷. +Edit 3: 🇩🇴🇩🇴 representing also! +Edit 4: 🇨🇺🇪🇨🇺🇾🇵🇾🇬🇹🇳🇮🇭🇳🇧🇴 + +Increidable to see apes in every country of Latin America and beyond! We strong and growing!! 🦍🦍 + It’s not the biggest or craziest number out there at 28 years old, but it’s something (most) people can probably attempt to replicate if they are just starting out. These numbers are all mine, there is no second income taken into account and I don’t have any support from anyone else (I.e., someone living with me and splitting rent). + +Obviously, some things have had to break my way to get here. The most importantly being I started my career in 2013, so the returns in the market over the last 6+ years have certainly helped. I also chose to live at home for almost four years after college until age 26. I know not everybody is afforded this opportunity, and some people would rather pay to live on their own than with their parents, but it was a choice I made that greatly helped, and I’m extremely grateful to my parents for letting me do this. I’ve obviously seen good growth in my salary over the last 6+ years as well, and while that’s due to a lot of hard work, there’s obviously some lucky breaks needed there as well. I graduated college with a little over $50,000 in student loans, but no other real debt to my name. + +Up until 2017 my rent expenses were $0, but I was dating someone who lived in a HCOL city, who earned a low salary, so I covered everything we did together (~1000/month). In 2017, my rent expenses went up to $1,300/month, and in 2018 when I purchased my home my mortgage/taxes/insurance went to $2,200/month. + +I try to live frugally for the most part, but still enjoy traveling (R/churning funds most of this), eating at nice restaurants, and trying to say “yes” to most things I get asked to do/go. + +I started my career in 2013 at an insurance company in a MCOL area. I’ve stayed with this same company over the last 6+ years and have held a few jobs within the company over that time. I hold a bachelor’s degree in Business Administration (concentration in Finance) with no designations and no master’s degree. +My Career (Salary wise) has looked like this: + +**2013:** $53,000 + +**2014:** $56,000 (raise) + +**2015:** $61,500 (raise) + +**2016:** $64,500 (raise) + +**2016:** $73,500 (promotion) + +**2017:** $75,000 (raise) + +**2018:** $77,000 (raise) + +**2019:** $111,000 (promotion) + +**2019:** $117,500 (lateral move) + +I grew up in a household with financially responsible parents and I studied finance in college so I understood compounding interest and the effect it would have on my 401K. The first 5 years of my employment I contributed 18% with an 8% match. When I purchased a house in 2018, I dropped that number to 7% with an 8% match. + +My 401K over that time has looked like this: + +**2013:** $2,000 + +**2014:** $15,000 + +**2015:** $27,000 + +**2016:** $46,000 + +**2017:** $75,000 + +**2018:** $86,000 + +**2019:** $123,000 + +Part of the reason I've never left my company is because I've seen opportunity for growth here (Not every millennial is bouncing around different companies to leverage raises), but another big part is the benefits. 5 Weeks PTO (6 weeks in 2 more years), 8% 401k match, $30/month for Health Insurance, $1500 a year towards student loan repayments, $6000 a year towards tuition assistance, 8 minute commute to work, starbucks on campus, free gym on campus, work from home occasionally, and a pretty good culture and work life balance, which I weight all of that heavily. I really can't see myself leaving even if another company offered me a pretty decent raise. + +I started keeping track of my Net Worth on a monthly basis in October of 2016. The link below is a screenshot of my graph. + +[Net Worth](https://m.imgur.com/gallery/ZWjvSAx) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +For those of you directly messaging me with questions to ask in the AMA, please save them for tomorrow! + +u/redchessqueen99 will be posting an AMA intake forum where questions will be selected based on YOUR upvotes. This gives you total control, as a collective, and eliminates the need for us to stream so many questions, live. + +I will make sure to get to as many of these as I can. + +Thank you + +EDIT: I have also been asked to address counter DD on the HOC post. Before I do so, please wait for the AMA. Dr. T has provided me with feedback, personally *(IKR, super stoked).* + +The reason I haven't removed my post is because she didn't argue my message. Instead, she provided *VALUABLE* insight into the problem, as well as clarified some of my talking points. We want to make sure to give her *PLENTY* of time to address these, as they relate 100% to the narrative within [Naked, Short, and Greedy](https://www.amazon.com/Naked-Short-Greedy-Streets-Failure/dp/1910151343). So without spoiling the convo, I'll leave it at that. + +Finally, we will transition to some of my data points that are building the HOC II. This will give our listeners 100% disclosure into the talking points, BEFORE they are posted. This should help solidify our credibility before the HOC II is released. + +&#x200B; +I found out my old employer withdrew 20K suddenly after 6 years later I left the company. I called them and they said I was not fully vested because I only worked a year and a half. All the company match up contribution was taken since I left before 2 years of employment. Is this possible after I left 6 years ago and they just found out? What if I had rolled over the account to the other one before they found out? Were they still able to claim it? +Should’ve pulled your finger out your asses and DRS’d those damn shares a long time ago. The only thing that’s shocking in all of this is that you’re even surprised that this is happening. Did you really expect anything different when you made the decision to go against all conventional wisdom and left your shares with these shitty Brokers? + + +Edit: Ok, so lots of comments saying I’m mocking, taunting, attacking or laughing at non-DRS’d apes. But nah, that’s not my sentiment at all. I’d like to see every single ape’s hopes and dreams realised - but sometimes you just gotta call shit as it is. There are some apes that simply cannot DRS and that’s unfortunate. However, there is also a sizeable cohort of apes that can DRS but haven’t. To them, I’m merely saying, if you invite the leopard to eat your face, don’t be surprised when the leopard does in fact, eat your fucking face. +Hi everyone, + +There is a serious supply problem in the uranium sector that can't be resolved in the short term (12-24 months). That uranium supply problem is due to: + +\- an important bear market from 2011 till 2018/2019 where not enough was invested for future new uranium projects to replace existing uranium mines that will get depleted in the coming years and + +\- the start of a new multi-year contracting cycle that started in 2021S2. + +\- growing "panic" in the nuclear fuel cycle from utilities (EUP and UF6 restocking) + +&#x200B; + +**The nuclear fuel cycle:** + +step 1: uranium mining and mill ==> product is U3O8 (unenriched uranium) + +step 2: conversion of U3O8 into UF6 (Uranium Hexafluoride) + +step 3: enrichment (SWU) with input of UF6 ==> product of enrichment is EUP (Enriched Uranium Product) + +step 4: fuel fabrication using EUP to fabricate fuel rodes for nuclear reactors + +&#x200B; + +**Latest update about the price increases in the nuclear fuel cycle:** + +Sources Quakes99 on twitter: Nuclear fuel prices for Uranium Conversion, UF6, enrichment SWU are already rising dramatically! + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ivpo2c0h8zp81.png?width=594&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e21efb5003e2693beca91e948746a5e62ba8549 + +US brokers 'Uranium Markets' Friday, March 25, 2022 vs February month-end 2022: + +**UF6 +$34.50 to $177.50 +24%** + +**Conversion +$10 to $26 +63%** + +**SWU +$8.50 to $68.50 +14%** + +Uranium (U3O8) spotprice +$9.90 to $58.40 +20% + +&#x200B; + +Back to the working of the nuclear fuel cycle: + +**To produce EUP you need SWU and UF6.** + +**To produce more UF6, you need more uranium (U3O8)** + +==> **The significant increase in SWU, UF6 and Conversion price are "the canary in the coal mine" for much higher uranium (U3O8) prices in the near future.** + +Why? + +Because the significant increase in SWU, UF6 and Conversion price are the result of a tighter situation higher in the fuel cycle do to increasing demand in EUP, SWU, UF6 and conversion. + +&#x200B; + +==> The demand for uranium for short term delivery (because they want to produce more UF6 in the short term (12-24 months), not 5 years from now) is increasing significantly! + +&#x200B; + +**The needed short term delivery of uranium will come from:** + +**A) a couple uranium mine restarts (Paladin Energy, Lotus, Peninsula Energy, UR-energy, Energy Fuels)** + +**B) Uranium from the spotmarket at a significant higher uranium spotprice, because there isn't enough uranium available through the spotprice around 60 USD/lb ==> This will signifcantly increase the LT uranium price at which Boss Energy, Vimy Resources, Global Atomic, Denison Mines will sign future supply contracts, meaning that this will increase the stock value of those uranium companies significantly too.** + +&#x200B; + +Recap + +Who can restart uranium production? + +\- Paladin Energy ([PDN.AX](https://PDN.AX)): They also have presure from CNNC (chinees utility) to restart production as soon as possible + +\- Lotus ([LOT.AX](https://LOT.AX)) + +\- Peninsula Energy ([PEN.AX](https://PEN.AX) ) : they already have some LT contract signed with US and European utilities. + +\- UR-energy (URG) + +\- Energy Fuels (UUUU) + +A bit later: + +\- Boss Energy ([BOE.AX](https://BOE.AX)) + +\- Vimy Resources ([VMY.AX](https://VMY.AX)) + +\- Global Atomic ([GLO.TO](https://GLO.TO)) : A beauty! Start of production end 2024, but before that they aim to send 500T of hard rock from the construction (started end 2021) with uranium in it to the Orano mill for first uranium production earlier. + +\- Denison Mines (DNN): Phoenix project in Canada. + +\- Deep Yellow ([DYL.AX](https://DYL.AX) ) and Bannerman ([BMN.AX](https://BMN.AX) ) will enjoy the big ride higher, but will not produce uranium before 2026 (imo), because they are really cheap at the moment for the development stage wherein they are. + +&#x200B; + +Multi-baggers ahead in the coming months and 2023 (imo). Patience will be well rewarded. + +Cheers +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +This post and giveaway was generously funded by a community member who would like to remain anonymous. To qualify for the giveaway all you have to do is reply to this post and be a subscriber to r/cryptocurrency. The contest will be closed after 48hrs. and the winners will be contacted and the prizes dispersed shortly after. More details below. + +------------------- + +**First a little about what VeChain is, and what it's goals are:** + +##What Is VeChain? + +VeChain is designed to improve supply chain management and business processes using blockchain technology. The goal is to make these processes and information flow more streamlined using distributed ledger technology. + +There are two tokens on the platform: (VET) VeChain Token and (VTHO) VeChainThor Energy. VET is used to transfer value/information on the ledger and VTHO is used as energy to power the smart contracts. + +VeChain is considered by many to be a mature distributed ledger technology company with hundreds of real-world use cases already existing. + +VeChain states that its goal is: + +> “to build a trust-free and distributed business ecosystem platform to enable transparent information flow, efficient collaboration, and high-speed value transfers." + +If you are interested in learning more about VeChain, please visit the official site [VeChain.org](https://www.vechain.org) or visit the VeChain sub-reddit r/VeChain which just surpassed 100k members!! + +Other links: + + - [Whitepaper](https://www.vechain.org/whitepaper) + - [GitHub page](https://github.com/vechain/thor) + + +-------------------- + +##Giveaway Details + + - 4 winners will be chosen at random, each receiving a prize of 2500 VET!! 🎉🎉 + - To enter, please leave a top-level reply to this post. (Leave a comment directly to this post ⬇️) + - One entry per account. Duplicate comments will not be counted. + - **Users must be subscribed to r/cryptocurrency to qualify for this giveaway.** + - Entries after 48hrs. will not be counted (closes Friday, March 26th 3:00am UTC) + - Once the 48hrs is over, a numbered list of all the users who qualified will be posted along with a hash to verify integrity. + - Once the list is made public, A drawing will be scheduled using https://www.randomresult.com/. A link will be posted here where users can view the results in a transparent manner. 4 numbers will be drawn corresponding with the numbers in the list. + +The list of qualified users and scheduled results will be posted below when they become available. **Good luck to everyone!** +A gain is a gain they said - a tough pill to swallow at the moment. + +Me: Wheeling AMC since February with a $6.45 cost basis, rolling along CCs since then, adjusting strike prices up as needed and getting my premium. Sells a $16 CC about a week and a half ago. + +Also Me: If i didn't sell that recent CC I could sell my shares and pay off a student loan with what was a measly $600 trade. +**TL;DR: Big banks like HSBC led the charge in helping al Qaeda but no peeps about that from MSM. Also Michael Pachter's Wedbush has had nearly 17-20 million in fines since 2000.** + +**Edit 1: added at the bottom: Did you know that al Qaeda files expense reports, has HR, its own bylaws, and Mexican drug cartels have lengthy subcontractor agreements & insurance policies for cocaine shipments? How do you think big banks like HSBC are able to work with so many fellow criminals?** + +&#x200B; + +[Big banks, like...pretty much all the time.](https://preview.redd.it/ln701my81ea81.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ff6f522429d20e71d4f8eacff8b0c6dd0684d52) + +Just like many of you I was pissed about the terrorism BS being spouted about our favorite stock. So decided to do some digging. Guess al Qaeda isn't really known for being on OpenSea (maybe not art fans?) but guess what they are a fan of? Big banks. + +But heyyyyy if upstanding citizens like Pachter are to be believed, it's only GME that would be that evil no? The big banks wouldn't do that? Right...big banks, not unlike, oh I don't know HSBC: + +[https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/gangster-bankers-too-big-to-jail-102004/](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/gangster-bankers-too-big-to-jail-102004/) + +>For at least half a decade, the storied British colonial [**banking**](https://www.rollingstone.com/t/banking/) power helped to wash hundreds of millions of dollars for drug mobs, including Mexico’s Sinaloa drug cartel, suspected in tens of thousands of murders just in the past 10 years – **people so totally evil, jokes former New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, that “they make the guys on Wall Street look good.” The bank also moved money for organizations linked to Al Qaeda and Hezbollah, and for Russian gangsters; helped countries like Iran, the Sudan and North Korea evade sanctions; and, in between helping murderers and terrorists and rogue states, aided countless common tax cheats in hiding their cash.** +> +>**“They violated every goddamn law in the book**,” says Jack Blum, an attorney and former Senate investigator who headed a major bribery investigation against Lockheed in the 1970s that led to the passage of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. “**They took every imaginable form of illegal and illicit business.”** + +Oh wait, what's that ? CrImE? + +I mean, but the US authorities did something about them right? All those HSBC guys helping the motherfuckers that destabilize countries all around the world, whether the US, or Mexico, or otherwise are in jail making toilet wine right? + +&#x200B; + +>That nobody from the bank went to jail or paid a dollar in individual fines is nothing new in this era of financial crisis. What is different about this settlement is that the Justice Department, for the first time, admitted why it decided to go soft on this particular kind of criminal. **It was worried that anything more than a wrist slap for HSBC might undermine the world economy. “Had the U.S. authorities decided to press criminal charges,” said Assistant Attorney General Lanny Breuer at a press conference to announce the settlement, “HSBC would almost certainly have lost its banking license in the U.S., the future of the institution would have been under threat and the entire banking system would have been destabilized.”** + +&#x200B; + +There it is. Again. Economy > everything. Poor bankers need their money, we can't have *checks notes* terror cells like al Qaeda being unbanked or Mexican drug cartels?! (Oh noes!) + +&#x200B; + +[Money laundering only began once crip toe began guise! It never existed before!](https://preview.redd.it/39eviatc1ea81.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94ca63a110e272a31c3a363f70f2b47e8f715e1) + +It's also perfect timing this hit piece by MSM as there have been lots of on point criticism from crip toe fans about why so much hate about a $2T market cap economy in crip toe that legislators worry it factors into so much "CrImE" but ol' big banks & their fiat gets a pass. + +I mean, we'd expect the US fed got to track that shit down right! All our great KYC/AML (Know Your Customer/Anti-Money Laundering) rules for cash, right? I mean, we got stellar stewards of the country...Like Michael Pachter said: "So in order to let this stuff happen, you need AML compliance, and you need somebody who's FINRA regulated." + +AML compliance means FINRA regulated? Got it! I'm too smooth to know that, so let's look up some banks that should be AML compliant and FINRA regulated and got this down pat! Like...ummm... + +&#x200B; + +...like BoA! I'm sure they were good at AML compliance! + +[https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/binaries/content/assets/customsites/perspectives-on-terrorism/2013/issue-4/terrorism-financing-methods-an-overview--michael-freeman-and-moyara-ruehsen.pdf](https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/binaries/content/assets/customsites/perspectives-on-terrorism/2013/issue-4/terrorism-financing-methods-an-overview--michael-freeman-and-moyara-ruehsen.pdf) + +>"AQ relied on couriers to move money in the 1990s and before the 9/11 attack. According to the 9/11 Commission Monograph, al-Qaeda used money changers to transfer US $1 million from the UAE to Pakistan and then used couriers to transfer the funds as cash into Afghanistan. For the 9/11 attack itself, “Khalid Sheik Mohammed delivered...US $120,000 \[in cash to\] Abdul Aziz Ali in Dubai...\[who\] then used the cash to wire funds to the hijackers in the United States.”\[11\] Khalid Sheik Mohammed also gave thirteen of the hijackers US $10,000 each as they left Pakistan. **These hijackers brought cash and traveler’s checks with them as they entered the U.S. and deposited the funds at banks such as Bank of America, SunTrust, and other smaller banks.**" + +Ok yeesh maybe not that. + +But I mean, it's not like banks can determine who moves with what when you're making these deposits. It's too micro...I mean what about macro things, like banking relationships right? How about that Citi? + +[https://www.cnn.com/2001/US/09/26/inv.drug.money/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2001/US/09/26/inv.drug.money/index.html) + +>"Levin cited a 1996 State Department report that said bin Laden reportedly provided the AlShamal Islamic Bank with $50 million in start-up capital....T**he AlShamal bank's Web site cites correspondent relationships with major banks in financial capitals, Levin said, including three in the United States: Citibank, American Express Bank and the Arab American Bank, the latter recently purchased by the National Bank of Egypt.**" + +Oof ok. + +Let me try again with my personal fan favorite, UBS? + +&#x200B; + +[When you think of UBS, think CrImE, ...but with like Swiss toblerones](https://preview.redd.it/d67wad9n1ea81.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34ef4d0a35e86b9755659f1e35a1235687c749b5) + +[https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2006/09/11/osamas-bank-account](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2006/09/11/osamas-bank-account) + +>Not long ago, there arrived at the courthouse, as an exhibit, an unusually complete set of bank records—the records for Account No. CO-565,167.0, at the former Swiss Bank Corporation, now UBS, which describes itself as the world’s largest wealth manager... +> +>On August 17, 1990, in Geneva, Omar and another of Osama’s half brothers, Haider bin Laden, signed documents to open Account No. CO-565,167.0. They declared, in writing, “as holder of the account” that “the beneficial owner of the assets to be deposited with the bank is Mr. Osama M. Binladin.” No other owner was named. + +[https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bin-laden-had-access-to-swiss-bank-account-80dd2kfb9k8](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bin-laden-had-access-to-swiss-bank-account-80dd2kfb9k8) + +>**OSAMA BIN LADEN had use of an account at UBS, one of the biggest banks in Switzerland, even after he was designated a financier of international terrorism by the American Government.** + +Just kidding. Go fuck yourself UBS. + +&#x200B; + +And to take it home, some fun facts about Wedbush per u/jteta12: + +>"Remember when Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter called Ryan Cohen a fraud. This is Wedbush today...."The Securities and Exchange Commission announced today that Wedbush Securities Inc., a California-based broker-dealer, has agreed to pay more than $1.2 million to settle charges arising from the unlawful unregistered distribution of nearly 100 million shares of more than 50 different low-priced microcap companies, and from Wedbush’s failure to file suspicious activity reports (SARs) pertaining to those transactions. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/enzu0e9v1ea81.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e721cbdfdfd5620e8eb10b992acac1a8aa583a0 + +[https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-261](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-261) + +Want even more fun? Check here or the SEC site itself: [https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/wedbush-securities](https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/wedbush-securities) + +From my smooth brain, it seems they've racked up nearly 17 million in fines from the SEC/FINRA since 2000, not including the fine from 3 weeks ago? Many mainly against investor protection rules? + +>[https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2019-99](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2019-99)The SEC's order finds that Wedbush improperly obtained pre-released ADRs from depositary banks when Wedbush should have known that neither the firm nor its customers owned the foreign shares needed to support those ADRs. **Such practices resulted in inflating the total number of a foreign issuer's tradeable securities, which, in turn, resulted in abusive practices such as inappropriate short selling and dividend arbitrage.** + +"Inappropriate short selling"? you don't fucking say + +&#x200B; + +Maybe Wedbush and Michael Pachter need to learn about following the rules from big banks. Just kidding, there are no rules for all of these fuckers. + +**TL;DR: Big banks like HSBC led the charge in helping al Qaeda but no peeps about that from MSM. Also Michael Pachter's Wedbush has had nearly 17-20 million in fines since 2000.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/x2alifc51ka81.png?width=560&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d17b31e2e727de1fdfdd743e0c41778a4bcaca6 + +[P.S. TIL about Al Qaeda and why HSBC is able to help fund them...OP got receipts...from al Qaeda](https://preview.redd.it/8qtyfw78yea81.png?width=299&format=png&auto=webp&s=070800533a615ed12dbc27963988554724504c9d) + +EDIT: PS: Just realized, I could add one of my "favorite" TIL facts about al Qaeda. The "stereotype" of groups like al Qaeda being "hideouts in desert caves" is BS. It's why many don't realize that groups like this (or cartels like Sinaloa) use big banks like HSBC, UBS to finance their activities (and I'm sure those banks want us to think those groups are ignorant and in the middle of nowhere). But want proof for al Qaeda? They have newsletters like Inspire in 2010 ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inspire\_(magazine)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inspire_(magazine))) and Al-Thabat in 2020 ([https://www.mei.edu/publications/schism-jihadism-sahel-how-al-qaeda-and-islamic-state-are-battling-legitimacy-sahelian](https://www.mei.edu/publications/schism-jihadism-sahel-how-al-qaeda-and-islamic-state-are-battling-legitimacy-sahelian)). + +&#x200B; + +**But my favorite fact is they have financial managers that are on your ass even for expense reports:** + +>When you think about how Al Qaeda operates, you don't expect to hear about what is effectively a human resources department, or an intricate finance department, but apparently those both exist within Al Qaeda, [according to the Associated Press](http://bigstory.ap.org/article/060-cake-al-qaida-records-every-expense), which found a box of Al Qaeda documents left behind in Timbuktu, Mali. **The most interesting discovery was a meticulously kept trail of receipts for everything from groceries to oil purchases during the group's short stint there...** +> +>Apparently Al Qaeda keeps track of each and every receipt for each and every expense as part of a complicated accounting system meant to govern its many smaller factions spread across the world. "They have so few ways to keep control of their operatives, to rein them in and make them do what they are supposed to do. **They have to run it like a business**...The strict financial responsibility is a trait given to the group by former leader Osama Bin Laden, [who ran million dollar corporations](http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/binladen/who/bio.html) before the terror group. + +[https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/12/al-qaeda-are-strict-about-keeping-track-their-receipts/356552/](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/12/al-qaeda-are-strict-about-keeping-track-their-receipts/356552/) + +This is NPR (even mentions a Redditor's comment on the find): + +>From its earliest days, al-Qaida leaders insisted on receipts. If fighters were buying a car for an operation, or even disk drives and floppy disks for their computers, they were required to return to base with a precise accounting of everything they had spent. ... +> +>"One of the first big troves of intelligence on the group was discovered in the fall of 2001, shortly after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. Ground troops found literally hundreds of thousands of pages of records in al-Qaida safe houses. \*\*\*\*The documents laid out al-Qaida's founding bylaws; they included personnel records and receipts for explosives. There were stacks of files and detailed HR policies....\*\*\*\*The seized documents showed that al-Qaida paid an unusual amount of attention to its fighters and their families. Married members were allowed to have seven days of vacation for every three weeks worked. Bachelors got five days off a month." + +(EDIT 2: I'm sure many of you saw this but the irony isn't lost on many of you Americans who see that even goddamn AL QAEDA has better time off polices than they do at their current jobs while your pay & livelihood is eaten away by inflation and your savings to avoid inflation are then turbofucked in capital markets by Citadel and co...) + +Here's a similar take on the Sinaloa drug cartel that HSBC helped to finance: + +>"In the *New York Times Magazine* last June, Patrick Radden Keefe explored how the bloody Mexican drug organization Sinaloa [functioned, essentially, as a multinational corporation](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/magazine/how-a-mexican-drug-cartel-makes-its-billions.html?pagewanted=all), as complex in its operations as Amazon or UPS. **In this case, too, the organization's illicit activities and its staggeringly violent toll tend to overshadow the familiar, mundane structures at work underneath. Sinaloa, in Keefe's description, has to grapple with the same boring export-and-trade issues — distribution, fees, subcontractors, insurance — that any large company has to deal with.** +> +>Asked whether any discoveries in his reporting surprised him, [Keefe said](http://6thfloor.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/behind-the-cover-story-patrick-radden-keefe-on-the-sinaloa-drug-cartel/): +> +>"A lot of it was the ways in which Sinaloa deals with mundane dilemmas facing any business. There were the insurance policies on loads of cocaine that some of the Colombian cartels have offered, or the fact that when a load gets confiscated by authorities, traffickers will try to find a newspaper clipping about the bust, or even ask the authorities for a receipt, to prove that they didn't steal the drugs themselves." + +**If the theory in your mind is that these are random fighters in Afghani deserts or the Mexican borderlands, its easy to think it's not connected. When you realize they have troves of expense reports and subcontractor insurance policies, it makes sense HOW they are just able to be financed by HSBC, UBS, and the like....** + +[https://www.npr.org/2013/05/29/187147334/even-terrorists-have-to-fill-out-expense-reports](https://www.npr.org/2013/05/29/187147334/even-terrorists-have-to-fill-out-expense-reports) + +&#x200B; +I believe what we have witnessed since the $344.66 peak on June 8th has been an effort to purposely lose. The SHFs tested the diamond hands on that $344 runup and knew they could not win. There was minimal selling against a mountain of shares that needed to be covered. The SHFs then embarked on the 'ol too-big-to-fail mission to tank the price while they literally unwinded every other "media named meme" stock with a large short position. + +The goal was never to win with this strategy. It was to create a truly unwinnable position in GME that will require government intervention. It's likely hedged against a giant market collapse as well. It would not shock me if the DTCC themselves are pulling the strings here. + +Here are the factors that have me thinking like this: + +* All of the rule changes to protect themselves from SHFs defaulting. +* All of those netting accounts by the banks. +* Banks issuing lots of bonds for extra cash readying for the firesale and/or SHFs defaulting. +* The Reverse Repo record highs looking like collateral to hold some pieces from falling too soon. +* Weird tickers pumping and dumping almost all seem connected to the SHFs +* No aggressive buying of GME from hedge funds. It's not just apes that have seen the DD in this sub. These hedge funds/whales appeared to be active in Feb-May, but now are not interested in adding shares as the price has tanked? Are they being ordered to stand down while this shit show unwinds? Is this why so much of the price action is being routed to the dark pools? (ie hedge fund purchases are being denied) +* Market bleed days where 95% of the market is red. Is this the tax that is being accrued to handle the "settlement" of GME? +* Markets themselves are at all-time highs, but more and more articles are suggesting bubbles and correction coming. As banks report the next few days, is this the catalyst to tank everything for some extra dollars to attempt to resolve GME? + +and the biggest confirmation bias I see right now is every "media named meme" stock (except GME) has been allowed to run (massive volume and price ascension) in June. Consider: + +Old phone / 5G now stock - Massive volume today and also June 2nd and June 3rd + +Old phone/autos now stock - June 2nd to June 9th massive volume. + +Movie Stock - May 26th to June 23rd massive volume. Price rise from $12.08 on May 21st to a peak of $72.62 on June 2nd. + +Household brick store stock - June 2nd, June 3rd, and June 29th massive volume. + +IMO, the bad guys bought themselves enough time to unwind safely in the "meme" stocks EXCEPT for GME. GME was always different because of the float, great leadership, and the diehards of this sub. GME (the stock) is a must-buy even without the MOASS for anyone paying attention. The SHFs have thrown in the towel attempting to win this battle. In fact, they are behaving irrationally trying to drive the price even further into the ground in an effort to make the explosive impact even greater. + +IMO, MOASS is certain. How much we get paid might be a question as the assholes in charge have never played fair. + +Believe in Ryan Cohen. Believe in DFV. Believe in your fellow apes. and just buy and hold. And close the ticker if it upsets you. We got this in spades. +If so, how? What did you use the money for? + +I'm not *wealthy* wealthy. But my networth did increase 20x since the beginning of the pandemic. + +I was ecstatic at first but now I feel like I'm back at my baseline level of happiness since before the pandemic. I mean the only thing that's new is that I've been eating out at various restaurants... Or I'll be the one to treat when it comes to buying drinks. + +But other than that I don't feel more satisfied or happy with life. Which has filled me with existential dread lately. Like I spent all this time chasing after wealth and a good paying job, only for my level of happiness / satisfaction to just remain the same... If I had known that I would've just spent my time persuing work that would've been more meaningful to me. +So, I bought around 1,000 shares of GE back in early 2009 for about 10 dollars a share and up until 2016, I thought I did ok for myself. I was collecting a nice dividend and had a huge gain, but now I don't know what to do. With no dividend and the idea this thing could actually go to zero is freaking me out. Is there any chance of it going back up, do I sell and just move on? Thankfully, this was only 10% of what I invested back in 2009. I put the rest in other much better companies that are still growing. +I'll admit it: I've kept a large sum of my crypto on Robinhood this whole time... until now. To be fair, I had stopped actively buying with them a year ago, but had decided not to sell since they had announced they were developing crypto wallets. So I decided to just hodl until I could transfer out... and that time has finally come! Last night I finally received word that my wallet was ready. **As of this morning the remaining assets I has hodling have been transferred OUT!** + +Screenshot: [https://imgur.com/a/unzF2sS](https://imgur.com/a/unzF2sS) + +**I STRONGLY urge you to do the same if you have not done so already.** It's worth the gas price too ([which is a little lower than normal right now](https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_average_gas_price)). If you've quietly been waiting for your Robinhood crypto wallet, it should come soon. I was around number 55k in line to receive mine. + +*Why transfer out?* If you're not aware, Robinhood restricted trades during the the GameStop/meme-stock mania last year which effectively helped shady hedge funds and hurt regular folk like you and I ([see more about that here](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/investing/robinhood-backlash-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). They were also fined $70M by FINRA over other shady practices, including having "outages" during big market swings between 2018 and 2020 ([check that out here](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/technology/robinhood-fined-misleading-customers.html)). This was especially a frustration last year when Robinhood suddenly suffered "technical difficulties" during the epic Doge runup ([more info here](https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/4/22419159/robinhood-dogecoin-outage-crypto-trading-crash#:~:text=Robinhood%20confirmed%20that%20it%20experienced,the%20beginning%20of%20the%20day)). So then, it's pretty clear that Robinhood's interests are NOT with you. **Why trust them with your assets when they block you from making financial decisions during critical market movements?** + +I'm not the only one in this sub that is alarmed by Robinhood, please see these additional posts and comments from our fellow sub-mates for more information so you can make your own decision: + +* [Robinhood CEO can’t/won’t answer questions](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/lmyhur/for_those_still_on_the_fence_with_robinhood_watch/) +* [Citadels CEO Lied Under Oath about a Collusion with Robinhood](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pw0kgt/leaked_documents_show_that_citadels_ceo_lied/) +* [Robinhood locked the buy button when it suited them](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/lfrslo/reminder_robinhood_blocked_several_stocks_from/) + +TLDR: I finally moved all my crypto off Robinhood now that they enabled my crypto wallet. You should too because they are shady AF. +I'm a low income senior getting OAS pension with Guaranteed income supplement plus I live in a BC Housing seniors building. I'm looking to inherit about 30 thousand dollars and I'm worried I'll have to pay market rent and lose my GIS so after a year I'll be poor without GIS or BC Housing and I never got to use the money to improve my life. + +Does anyone have knowledge of the rules around a one time windfall and getting to use some of it to make my life better and not just more expensive? + +Edit: Thank you to everyone who took the time to share your knowledge and opinions. Y'all helped me greatly. +&#x200B; + +[The ever-shrinking float](https://preview.redd.it/whlvjhlahwu71.jpg?width=761&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e0227bcbcb5b4220e06e7eb458206989d0c2b4e4) + +* Lower the price, and the float locks up faster. +* Let the price run and pay higher collateral costs. +* As the float gets smaller, there are no extra shares to borrow to have your friends assist in the downward pressure. + +MOASS is inevitable at this point if we get our shares locked up in Computer Share. + +Shall We Play a Game? + +The only way for Citadel to NOT LOSE MORE is to surrender. They have already lost. It's just a matter of who else also goes down with this ship. +I’m building a detached garage on my property this spring. Have a meeting with an architect this week. + +What are some of the more luxurious things I should consider for a new garage space? Something that would set the garage apart from normal garages. +I have 2 friends who are interested in getting into real-estate. None of us have ever bought a property. We think it would be good to pool money together and buy a property together, either a multi-family or a large home with many rooms that we rent out. + +I have a few questions about how that works: + +1. Does one of us just get a long as big as possible and the others just pay that person their portion of the down payment? +2. Do we form an LLC and the loan goes to that LLC, if so how do we prove credit history and get a loan for a new LLC? +3. If we don't have a specific place in mind yet, how much of a loan do we ask for (this question if for buying in group vs buying by myself) + +What else do I need to know or keep in mind? +Two posts are on the front page right now: ["El Salvador angrily rejects IMF call to drop Bitcoin use"](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/she2t3/el_salvador_angrily_rejects_imf_call_to_drop/) and [El Salvador Treasury Minister Alejandro Zelaya angrily rejects IMF demand to drop Bitcoin as legal tender, “We are a sovereign nation. No international organization is going to make us do anything, anything at all!"](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/shs9au/el_salvador_treasury_minister_alejandro_zelaya/) + +You guys understand that the IMF isn't just randomly going around demanding stuff, right? Most replies don't seem to understand that. El Salvador has tried to get [$1.3 billion in funding from them](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-el-salvador-economy-exclusive-idUSKBN2AW1GV) for almost a year now. That's a ton of money. And sure, edglord Bukele and his corrupt, idiotic government can keep their stance that nobody can "make them" do anything - but nobody is trying to force them to do anything. It's more of a "yeah we won't give you money as long as you are gambling with your economy in an irresponsible manner". Which is a completely reasonable attitude. Why would they just give money to them without conditions? + +El Salvador doesn't hold any power here. They're an irrelevant, tiny economy, the IMF couldn't care less about them. If they want money, they'll have to comply. Or the dictator once again makes a stupid decision for his country... +It's their last chance to FUD retail out of the stock. Its highly probable that an intense short ladder attack will happen immediately after the split. + +The split will take the price down to around $35. Then at this critical moment they will short it down to whatever they can, maybe even below 20. + +This will be their biggest mistake and our biggest opportunity to lock the float. I have put months of savings away for this moment. Our time is near apes. + +Edit: I am into shares only. I am against options and day trading. DRS all the way! +So recently I've been having some serious financial issues. First off, I'm a PhD student. We get a pretty meh stipend. About $14 an hour. It's definitely not the worst but I live in a run down 400sqft apartment for $900 a month. So you do the math. I had some serious health issues earlier in the year that racked up some debt and seriously screwed up my savings. For the last week I've been doing instacart to try to repair some of my finances. I'm just trying to make 1.5k and then I will be quitting. So maybe a month or two of it. I'm at $300 so far so thats not too terrible. The job is HORRIBLE though. I have to do this on top of school stuff. + +To top it off, my friends are incredibly financially stable. They have a huge savings, 25-50k+. They are saving for homes and going on trips and just living it up. People around me are married, planning for kids, etc. Meanwhile I'm sitting in the grocery store parking lot refreshing the instacart app on the verge of tears getting ready for a 1 star review because the store didn't have what someone wanted. Its 3rd party. WE DONT KNOW! AHHHHHHHH sffsgsgfjgkhkhlgjdgsafahghk + +How do you guys deal with this? How do you just stop comparing and be grateful for what you do have? I'm about to tell my friends to please stop telling me about how great their life is going because it gives me full emotional breakdowns. Like just sobbing for hours at night that I have worked so hard and just can't get a break. +I figured holding 60 different "high growth" tech companies plus a few resource producers was diversification....now here I am with 50% less net worth than August 2021. I guess all of the XEQT / VGRO fanatics have got it all figured out. + +Whitecap Resources -refuses to increase valuation past 2:1 + +Schlumberger -Outright refuses to increase in value to historical norms. + +Upstart Holdings -Remains profitable but the market seems to think the company is insolvent. + +Lemonade Insurance -Great customer satisfaction, awful shareholder value. + +Vale -Worlds second biggest miner, who gives a flying fuck? + +Fiverr International -Rise of the freelancers! Plummet of the share price. + +Rio Tinto -Gigantic dividends, worthless share price. + +Mind Medicine -The Shroom Boom has been a major bust. + +DocuSign -Total grenade. + +Shopify -Succumbed to the Curse of Canada! If your company ever reaches the largest market cap in Canada, it shall be insolvent the following year. + +Kulicke and Soffa -There is a microship shortage, we make tooling for microchip production, our stock price is down -50% Sure, why the fuck not. + +The Trade Desk -We are the most innovative advertising firm on the internet, every Earnings Report is a smash beat! We are down -75% Sure, why the fuck not? + +Newmont Gold -There is hyper inflation, gold is a hedge against hyper inflation.....psyche!!! Not this time SUCKER. + +Fuck Stocks, fuck options, fuck the world. + +Is nobody else getting annihilated in this collapse or am I the only idiot swimming in a sea of geniuses? +It’s clear that the vast majority of people know that personal finance is important and if there is any demographic that needs to know about it, it would be the youth. But why isn’t it taught at schools? I know some schools have a small personal finance program. But why isn’t a commonplace in all schools? Has there ever been a state-wide or nation-wide program? If so, why does it no longer exist? +I missed ONE credit payment in the last 3 years a month ago. Entirely by accident. Thought I was on autopay. It was $17!!! Credit immediately reduced by $1700. FICO score drops 73 points. Fuck this system. I’m trying to buy a house later this year and shit like this just infuriates me. It’s no wonder my [32M] demo is stuck at 650 avg credit. +Hi guys, I'm curious to what sort of recent changes you've made to manage the recession and massive increase in cost of everything... + +I'll start, + +Since its started getting colder and its expensive having the heating on, I reuse hot boiling water from making my evening boiled egg sandwiches. This hot water goes straight into my hot water bottle which stays warm for about 2+1/2 hours. Sometimes when I'm working at my desk at home, having this hot water bottle on my lap makes a huge difference. I feel much warmer and comfy. + +I also have an air fryer which I've started using a LOT more recently. This a big win as its way healthier than eating out everyday and deep frying. Also the air fryer cooks really well and home recipes just got a whole lot easier.(side rant: as well as costs of restaurants and fast foods shooting up to ridiculous highs, have you noticed the quality and service has actually declined! I'm not going crazy right!?) + +And the last is, I have subscribed to my favourite online clothing stores newsletter and downloaded their app so I often get emails of discounts as much 55% off for app users. I definitely take advantage of this. I also noticed the store send out an extra 10% off code when you fill your basket but leave it waiting 24 hours without completing the order. So I do this and wait for them to send me the "you have items waiting in your basket, here's an extra 10% off voucher code" email before actually submitting the order. (I assume a few stores do this now, worth a try) + +Any other little tricks or changes I can adopt to save more or even make some money? + +Appreciate all responses in advance. +My wife's employer is changing their retirement benefit package starting January 1 and is auto-(re)enrolling everyone at the maximum IRS contribution limit divided by 12 months, which is $1,625.00 (under 50) or $2,166.67 (at least age 50 during 2021) per month. They are also giving everyone a one-time $10k taxable bonus in January to help people maintain those max contributions. They made this all clear in a letter and two follow-up emails ("If you are happy with the default auto enrollment, you do not need to take any action. To set up a deferral rate for anything other than auto-enrollment at $1,625.00 or $2,166.67, please follow the enclosed step-by-step instructions..."). + +I cannot decide if this is insane or awesome or both. Has anyone heard of an employer doing this? It is a very large employer with employees at all income levels. I suspect there will be many shocked employees when the February paychecks arrive... +For the last few years I've been driving a 2009 Nissan Versa hatchback. It's been a great little car, but it was old and starting to fall apart, and then I found that it was burning oil at an alarming rate. So for the past month or so I've been hunting around to see what I can find. + +&#x200B; + +I found a 2014 Ford Focus SE hatchback that had all the options I would get had I bought it new; leather interior, fog lamps, sport package (you get rear disc brakes with this, very important) and a manual transmission. Focus' are super good deals right now IF you get the manual, because the automatic transmissions were absolute garbage and brought down the value of the car across the board, but the rest of the car is well made. + +&#x200B; + +The car was advertised around $7500 with around 71k miles, both KBB and Edmunds valued the car around $8k if it was in "excellent" condition. So I put a deposit down on the car on the condition I could get a prepurchase inspection. On a car this old with this many miles, I didn't expect anything too crazy, and from the outside it looked and drove fine. + +&#x200B; + +Well guess what, it needs about $1100 of suspension work! I go back to the dealer and say "I want to buy this car today, and I'm fine with the price it's at, but not the work it needs. To sell me this car, you can either a) fix what needs to be fixed or b) knock $1100 of the price and I'll have it fixed." + +&#x200B; + + Well they decided to knock the price of the repairs off the price, and I drove off in my car. ALWAYS get a prepurchase inspection on used cars, no matter how nice they look or good they drive! +Hi everyone, really glad that i found out this sub. I have a basic knowledge of finance, programming and ML. I want to explore the algo trading side but i am not sure where to start from. Would request you guys to guide me on this with any resources to take references from in future +We made it this far, we’ve taken on the most powerful people and entities in the world and held our own the entire time, through the strikingly simple decision to buy and hold. DRS was the lynchpin where that buy and hold got transferred into our own names. + +Now comes the waiting game as we march towards 100% of shares outstanding being direct registered. + +Nobody knows what will happen to the price when we achieve that objective but what we do know for sure is it will 100% prove that phantom shares exist in large numbers and thus that the opposition has engaged in criminal behavior. + +That’s the bind they’re in and that’s why we’ve been seeing the fud around drs rise to absurd, unbearable levels. They will be exposed as the criminals they are when 100% of shares are registered. + +They’re going to do whatever they can to slow down or halt that process. + +They’ve proven they can move the price at will. That’s their greatest power, to control price action, to try to wear retail out, and to make the majority of calls land out of the money week after week after week. + +Our power is to hold and refuse to sell the phantom shares they’ve sold us and to direct register all shares outstanding and prove they sold us phantom shares. It’s that simple. + +Plenty of comments are going to say something like ‘don’t tell me what to do with my money’ and well I’m not. If you want to buy options that’s your right as a free investor. + +What I’m saying is that every dollar that goes to an option is a dollar that doesn’t go to DRS and that’s what the opposition wants. Because if they’ve proven one thing over the last year it’s that gamma ramps are no threat to them. There have been huge and perfect gamma ramps set up multiple times and they were all obliterated. + +Regardless this post isn’t written for the options shills or the genuine people who have decided to play options. + +It’s written for everyone still engaged in the noble endeavor of buying and direct registering an ownership stake in the company we love. Stay strong, don’t let this absurd fud get to you. The fact that it’s increasing is proof that DRS is working and scaring the daylights out of the criminals on the other side of this trade. +There really isn’t anything else that needs to be said. Get your gaming tendies and we will get the movie tendies. Then we can have video game tournaments at AMC establishments, or GameStop arcades in AMC theatres? + +Really I’m just so happy to be apart of this movement with you all, and we want to see you succeed just as much as we want to succeed. + +Also, it’s so early in the morning and my coffee hasn’t kicked in yet. + +Sincerely, + +-An ape who loves movies and video games + +Edit* +Not a movement, I am not a financial advisor, and some of you are incredibly hostile lol. +Are you tired of Sh*tcoins that rugpull everyday? Are you looking for a real BSC gem? Then $ZEP Zepplin DAO is for you. + +This is unheard of, it surpasses any other memecoin or sh*tcoin I have seen in this bullmarket, even surpassing the initial SAFEMOON growth by a huge margin and has an actual use case. + +What is Zeppelin DAO? + +Zeppelin DAO is NOT a meme. +Zeppelin DAO is NOT a sh*itcoin. +Zeppelin DAO is a REAL PROJECT. + +Zeppelin.dao is founded on the vision that crypto can empower everyone to reach new heights of financial freedom. If traditional finance has left you dead in the water, get aboard and be a part of our journey to the skies. Everybody is welcome, everybody is equal. Take your chance and prepare for the greatest adventure of our lifetimes! + +$ZEP helps launch new projects, early access for $ZEP holders. Their first IDO launch already starts friday, april 23, 15:00 UTC. + +🌟 WEBSITE 🌟 - https://www.zeppelindao.com + +🌟TOKENOMICS🌟 https://www.zeppelindao.com/#token + +Every Zeppelin transaction incrues a fee of 10% to the benefit of all, of which: +- 5% are distributed among all diamond hands holders +- 5% are locked away in the Iron Bank liquidity pool, to create a steadily rising price floor. + +🥞BUY NOW🥞 PanCakeSwap: https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x2e291e1c9f85a86d0c58ae15621aac005a8b2ead + +Everything you need I've put together for you :) + +🌟CoinGecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/zeppelin-dao + +🌟Telegram: https://t.me/zeppelindao (Already 11k+ and growing) + +🌟Twitter: https://twitter.com/ZeppelinDao (Already 14k+) + +🌟Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/zeppelindao + +🌟 Coin Market Cap: https://coinmarketcap.com/it/currencies/zeppelin-dao/ + +🌟Charts: +Poocoin: https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x2e291e1c9f85a86d0c58ae15621aac005a8b2ead +DexGuru: https://dex.guru/token/0x2e291e1c9f85a86d0c58ae15621aac005a8b2ead-bsc + +🌟BSC Scan: https://bscscan.com/token/0x2E291e1c9f85a86d0C58Ae15621aaC005a8b2EAD#balances + +🌟Contract: 0x2E291e1c9f85a86d0C58Ae15621aaC005a8b2EAD + +THIS DIP WILL NEVER BE TOUCHED AGAIN. DYOR +Hello community, + +I am sure most of you know Joel Greenblatt’s Magic Formula strategy? It’s a great concept and has delivered exceptional returns in the past – 23% annually (1988-2005). Personally, I think it is a great screening tool to generate investment ideas! + +Well, I recently came across an interesting chart provided by the AAII that showed the performance of the magic formula ever since Greenblatt’s book “The Little Book That beats The market” was published. I was quite surprised by the recent performance of the Magic Formula strategy – a drop from 23% annually (1988-2005) to 6% (2005-2019) is quite significant! + +[https://www.aaii.com/stockideas/performance](https://www.aaii.com/stockideas/performance)? + +What do you think caused this drop? I recently did a video on this subject but I’d love to know if you can come up with any other explanations? + + +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-5G-Bmjklg&feature=youtu.be + +&#x200B; + +Best regards +René +I mean I bought shares of BABA long ago because company is great and been adding positions, but lately these news about chinese gov are kinda freaking me out. I know our philosophy is to buy when others are fearful but are this regulatory news something to be really concerned or you think this is transitory? +For the full article check it out [here](https://greencandleinvestments.substack.com/p/chipotle-mexican-grill-ticker-cmg?r=ksa6f&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web) + +**Company Description and Qualitative Analysis** + +Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. owns and operates approximately 3,000 “fast-casual” restaurants throughout the United States, Canada, and Europe. Chipotle started the fast casual movement and is one of the premier names in the space. I put Chipotle in a separate category to the conventional fast food brands like McDonald’s and I believe most consumers do as well. There is no or limited drive-thru options for Chipotle and there has been viral internet videos and popularity surrounding Chipotle. The videos have generally been positive, but there’s also been some hilarious clips from South Park mentioning South Park (see below). These viral videos are seemingly free marketing for Chipotle and have in turn made Chipotle a household name with minimal footprint compared to other restaurant chains. + +[https://youtu.be/jHsR65IRW\_8](https://youtu.be/jHsR65IRW_8) + +Even throwing it back to the days of Vine, kids knew girls just love Chipotle. + +[https://youtube.com/shorts/e56MuzEGZm4?feature=share](https://youtube.com/shorts/e56MuzEGZm4?feature=share) + +**Quantitative Analysis** + +At the time of this writing (7/10/2022), CMG is trading at $1339.28 with a 52 week range of $1196.28 - $1958.55 and a market cap of $37.45B. In Q1 of 2022 Chipotle saw total revenue increase 16.0% to $2.0 billion, comparable restaurant sales increase by 9.0%, operating margin increase by 0.1% to 9.4%, and diluted earnings per share was $5.59 which was a 25.6% increase. Return of equity (ROE: Net Income / Total Equity \*100) of CMG is 30.69% and net margin (net income / revenue) is 8.74%. The price to earnings (price per share / earnings per share) ratio was 55.34 and the debt to equities ratio (total liabilities / total equity) is 2.03. You can view CMG’s Q1 2022 earnings [here](https://ir.chipotle.com/2022-04-26-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-FIRST-QUARTER-2022-RESULTS) and you can download their 2021 Annual Report [here](https://ir.chipotle.com/). + +&#x200B; + +**Bullish Thesis** + +Here are three points to support the bullish thesis: + +* **Innovation:** Whether you like it or not, the overhead costs for running a restaurant business are increasing rapidly. Chipotle is trying to combat this by launching a $50 million venture fund, investing in Nuro to pilot Chippy, a robotic tortilla chip maker, and other various robotic/cost saving measures in order to keep the cost of their menu where it is. I believe the price point of $10 to $15 with a filling meal that Chipotle offers is a sweet spot that if CMG is able to maintain will give them a huge competitive advantage in the restaurant world. I like seeing Chipotle determine cost saving measures across the board in order to increase margins and not suffer on quality. +* **Optimizing Order Taking:** Chipotle has optimized order taking so each place does not have to sacrifice taking the orders of online, Uber Eats, and other delivery service orders over the in person. This not only makes the in-store customer feel like they are the priority, it also ensures the delivery customers get their food in the fastest possible time. Chipotle is making sure every customer is a priority and realizes the value of having customers eating inside their restaurants. +* **Name Brand:** As shown in the YouTube videos in the qualitative analysis, there is a large following that absolutely loves Chipotle. Chipotle has viral videos and is a part of the running joke that guacamole is a little extra. Although there is a small footprint, I find it hard to believe that anyone has NOT heard of Chipotle. Many people have become accustomed to Chipotle and have eating at a Chipotle a part of their daily or weekly routine. The viral marketing outside of Chipotle will continue and help the growth of Chipotle, although it is unpredictable when it will happen. + +**Bearish Thesis** + +Here are three points to support the bearish thesis: + +* **Small Footprint:** The Chipotle market cap is one of the largest market caps for any restaurant, but it has less than 10% of the retail footprint than the likes of McDonald’s. This limits the reach of Chipotle and how much it can grow. This simply means that Chipotle needs to operate at larger margins or figure out how to make more money in order to expand its retail footprint. Chipotle looks primed in order to expand, but there are a lot of up front costs and risk of where to expand in order to optimize success. +* **Singular Store and Concept:** Chipotle Mexican Grills Inc. owns and operates only Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. This could be viewed as a positive or a negative. A positive because Chipotle specializes in the singular concept and a negative because it is a risk for a singular concept if it does not work. So far Chipotle has been successful, but if for some reason there was something that happened or a bad batch of chicken causes massive amounts of salmonella (although Chipotle has survived this multiple times unfortunately) can cause swings in the short term. +* **Staff Shortages:** This is a common FUD argument for almost every restaurant business at the moment. The positive spin on this is Chipotle is trying to figure out ways to optimize business ventures and the food making process. The negative spin is it takes a lot of initial investments to optimize these things and then place them into every store. With the smaller footprint it is not as large of an investment as a change in say McDonald’s would be. + +For the full article check it out [here](https://greencandleinvestments.substack.com/p/chipotle-mexican-grill-ticker-cmg?r=ksa6f&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web) +Hey Shorties, + +I thought I would give some insight into each segment of the wheel and the main implications for delta. + +Professional Options Trading is all about managing delta. Understanding what it is, how it changes, and how to adjust as needed will give you a severe edge over buy and hold/static delta. + +Let’s take a look at the ever-popular wheel and what delta means for it. The wheel starts with a short put, giving you positive delta. Because of gamma, if the short put ventures further out of the money - the delta of the option will begin to decline and your ability to participate in further appreciation will atrophy if left alone. The inverse is also true. As the option ventures in the money, it’s delta will expand and your participation in the decline will accelerate. + +Then we venture into a covered call. A covered call is a short call secured by static delta. Because we are venturing on the other side of the aisle, however, you would think that things would work in reverse, however they do not. As the asset appreciates, your delta will shrink and as it declines it will expand. This is because a covered call reaches maximum profit when it’s delta becomes zero as the short call will have a delta of -1 and the covered shares will have a delta of 1. When called away you are left with premium and 0 delta. + +Here is the fun part however. If you want to participate in the appreciation of an underlying, short a put. You are able to continuously maintain your starting delta by rolling down at each new strike as the previous option moves one strike out of the money. + +If you want to hedge against declines in shares you hold, sell a covered call. As the asset declines you are able to continuously roll down your short call to maintain your starting delta and your negative hedge. + +So how do we out perform an underlying asset using short options? It’s impossible in a bull market, right? Actually… you can. Here’s how… + +Sell short puts at the closest strike to 50 delta. This will maximize extrinsic value. Extrinsic value is a head start, a handicap. Sell it 30+ days out to remove gamma. Remember we want to maintain or delta, and gamma’s job is to change it. Roll your put down a strike as soon as the next one down has a delta closest to 50. Why? We want to participate in appreciation and if we don’t we won’t fully capture the rise. + +Alright well, what happens if the asset falls? Do nothing. Let your delta increase for the same reason as above. We will participate and recoup the loss faster when the underlying rebounds. If your option gets to 21 DTE, roll it out to the next monthly and maintain your strike. You want to keep that built up delta. Keep milking this until you are done with the asset. + +But wait how is this out performing? Each roll down will capture and secure gains that buy and hold and static delta do not. Maintaining equity shares makes you subject to volatility whipsaw. By constantly skimming profit and waiting for recovery before repeating, you are banking incremental rises that are not subject to that same volatility. You will skim profit from the natural price action of the underlying at every available opportunity that would require a firm exit strategy from buy and hold. + + +Think of your entry as a baseline and the current price as a top line. Buy and hold never adjusts their baseline until they exit and re-enter their position. Every time you roll down your strike however you are incrementally raising your baseline by small increments which allows you to exit the position and maintain all your banked profit easier. The secret is knowing when to be done with the asset. I can’t help you there. I usually look for price below a moving average and exit when it reaches mean. But any ole method should work. + +Shoot me your questions below. +I saw in another post people were saying this isn’t a once in a lifetime correction, but it’s certainly unusual or a more than mild move. Let’s put it in context: + +The last month’s market down move ranks 119th in one month down moves (since 1986) and is a 1.9 standard deviation move. That qualifies it as mild in my book. + +[Source](https://maximumtheta.com/?num_results=500&trading_days=22&start_price=open&end_price=close&next_trading_days=1&next_end_price=close&sort=asc&use_vix=1&vix_limit=100.0&start_vix=open&end_vix=close) +first time posting here, please be kind. + +im nervous with confrontation when it comes to sensitive topics such as compensation when at work. + +I have been at my place of employment for 5 years now. Company makes great money and is worth a few billion. Covid had no affect on them at all. + +My reviews are always full of positive remarks, the only complaint i have ever got was someone not understanding a sarcastic comment i made. i always get my work done on time and support the entire office staff with administrative tasks. i received employee of the month in 2021 as well. + +Every year my only wage increase has been 3% of my salary. when i questioned it on my first salary review my boss told me i was at the top of my payscale and there was no way to get more compensation without changing roles/departments. Since i enjoyed my workload, office coworkers, and flexibility i stayed in my position and accepted what was. last year (my 4th year) they gave me another 3% raise with a 2% additional raise based on "Merit". I was very happy! + +In this last year we have grown quite a bit and added in more administrative roles that do different work, but still admin work non the less. No prior education is required for these roles. i now support a much larger office, multiple managers/supervisors, assist with onboarding, manage 35 fleet vehicles in two separate regions, assist with IT, assist with purchasing, event planning, maintaining office inventory, and any other random task thrown at me. + +The new admin roles do one admin job only (think....only doing accounts receivable and nothing else). they do not take on additional support roles. + +&#x200B; + +Last week i found out the two new admins we hired are starting at my current wage. i was heartbroken. My wage review is coming up in May and my manager already mentioned in my yearly review 2 months ago that im at the top of my payscale. + +What do i do in this situation? Budgeting for salary increases has come and gone so i feel like ive missed my shot for this year. how do i say "WTF?!?!" in business terms lol? + +&#x200B; + +**EDIT: This is the first time i ever had more than 10 comments on a post. Thank you for all the tips and advice. At this time im not interested in leaving the company as it works very well with my work life balance, is very close to home (i live rural as it is), and i enjoy my coworkers. Im seeking fair market compensation for my time spent at the company and the workload i do. i will try to respond to all the great advice i received!** + + +Don't miss it out! : [https://www.pornverse.land](https://www.pornverse.land/) + +Jump in before CoinMarketCap & CoinGecko Listing! (Application sent out yesterday) + +**PornVerse ($PVERSE)** has the most advanced ecosystem in the adult-content industry. A futuristic long-term project that combines technology & utility. + +The principle? To watch adult-content live shows or videos with a **Virtual Reality headset** inside the PornVerse. + +Wanna take a break? Play mini-games, earn money, exhibit your **NFTs** in the common hall, buy a private virtual apartment and more! + +Enough to stay in the metaverse for as long as possible! + +Powered by a French team working in the same company for years, Big Marketing and frequent AMAs will be part of the project. + +🔒 Liquidity locked 1 year + +✅ Audit & KYC + +👉 Token, NFTs, Mobile App, Metaverse + +👍 2% Rewards in BUSD + +💰 Get paid to watch porn + +Get Paid to watch Porn + +A dream came true. With our Tokenomics including 2% Rewards in BUSD distributed every hour following your $PVERSE holdings, get paid to watch your favorite content. Simple and passive. The more you hold, the more you get. No minimum required - Passive income for all $PVERSE holders. + +300k MarketCap - VERY LOW - Get the opportunity NOW! + +**LINKS:** + +🌎 Website: [https://pornverse.land](https://pornverse.land/) + +📣 Telegram: [https://t.me/pornversechat](https://t.me/pornversechat) + +🐦 Twitter: [https://twitter.com/porn\_verse](https://twitter.com/porn_verse) + +🤖 Discord: [https://discord.gg/pornverse](https://discord.gg/pornverse) + +📰 WhitePaper: [http://pornverse.land/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/WhitePaper-PornVerse.pdf](http://pornverse.land/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/WhitePaper-PornVerse.pdf) +Over the next week or so there is going to be a wave of people passing through here with the 'unique' idea that they are going to buy some British banknotes or coins and that in just a short time its going to be a higly sought after collectable. It wont. This is a bad investment idea. Now naturally the kind of person who comes up with this get-rich-quick scheme is going to try anyway, but for the rest of us I will try and explain here why this is a bad idea. + +First, let me clarify the difference between currency value and collectable value. If I get a five quid note and I pay five quid to get it, this does not mean it is a collectable. That is just how money works. For something to be collectable it has to have a value above and beyond what you would be able to use it as if you just spent it as cash. To extend this just a tiny bit more, if I got an ultra rare limited edition five quid note that is in mint condition and I pay a million quid for it, the actual colectable value is nine hundred ninty nine thousand nine hundred ninty five quid. + +The next thing I need to explain is marginal value. Lets say a store was selling apples. What would be the better sale price? Half off? Or buy one get one free? At first thought this seems total nonsense. Thats the same thing! But not so fast. What if I was selling toothbrushes? Do I realy need two toothbrushes? If I got a second toothbrush, one of those is just going to be kept under the sink untill the first toothbrush wears out. I would rather just get one toothbrush only and get it for half off. This is marginal utility. + +So with both of these idea in mind, lets talk about coin collecting. Say someone wants to start collecting and the first thing they try is getting all five of the "five good emperors". They go to a few swap meats and quickly start acquiring the set. But Nerva is giving them some problems. No matter where they go, they cant seem to find a Nerva. But they keep at it and soon enough they find one for sale but its $200. Ouch! Thats above their price point for just a starting collection, but they realy want to have the whole set. So they break down and pay it. A few more months roll by and they once again find someone selling a Nerva and selling it for $199. I this was absolutely any other product it would be natural to think they would buy this second one also. But what about the collectable value? What about the marginal utility? Do they honestly need a second copy of the Emperor Nerva coin? The series is already complete so what's the point of having it in your collection twice? Who cares if its a buck cheaper. They wouldn't even buy it to try and "flip" to another collector. The time and effort they would need to go to in order to flip it would bot be worth making just $1 in profit. + +And that leads us finally to Queen Elizabeth II. Coins and banknotes with her likeness are not rare to begin with. Supply already way outstrips demand. But even on the demand side, collectables do not follow the regular supply-and-demand curve. Every economic textbook out there shows this graph as a smooth gently curving function. But the supply-and-demand for collectables doesn't do that. There is a hard upper limit that is the total number of people that are collectors. If the number of coins is less than the number of collectors, there will be demand. But if the number of coins is more than the number of people that are into the hobby, you do not get a slow gradual tapering off. You get a graph that drops off a cliff. + +There are ancient roman coins out there that you can get even today that are just the value of the metal the coin is minted from. The collectable value that is above and buying the value of the base metal is basically zero. This is true despite the emperor depicted on the coin being dead for thousands of years. The reason they have no collectable value is ttoaly decoupled from the emperor being alive or dead. The lack of collectable value comes from the fact that the number of coins in existence is larger than the number of people in the hobby. There is enough to give all collectors at least one, and nobody cares about having a second one. + +Coins and Banknotes with Queen Elizabeth II will never have a collectable value. Dont even try to buy them up now with the hope that in the future you can sell them for more. It wont happen. It cant happen. Don't even try. If you want to use this event as motivation to get into coin collecting as a hobby them have at it! Its a great pastime and I will welcome you. But if your just out to flip coins as a get rich quick scheme, then dont. + +"You know Jerry, I'm not gonna tell you that this coin will increase in value, or even hold its current value. The truth is, you brought it cuz you like it. It has value to you. That's what matters" +I am one of the cofounders of [Honey](http://www.joinhoney.com), a browser extension that automatically searches and applies coupon codes for online shoppers at checkout. I'm also a fan of bitcoins and its disruptive potential. + +One of the biggest weakness of bitcoins at the moment is the lack of merchant support - especially large online retailers like Amazon. Unfortunately, it's a hard sale to get merchants to introduce a new payment concept to people who are about to checkout -- this could cause people to abandon the cart to go off to read about what this "bitcoin" thing is. Unless there's compelling evidence that the reward is greater than the risk, merchants like Amazon will not take that chance. + +We have an idea for adding a feature in Honey that can help prove the value of bitcoin as a payment method to giants like Amazon. The user experience goes like this: + +* You are checking out on Amazon +* If you have Honey installed, you will see a "pay with bitcoins" button on the page +* Hit the button and you will be asked to pay the total in bitcoins. The payment is sent to Honey +* When the bitcoin payment is confirmed, Honey applies an Amazon gift card in the exact amount to your shopping cart +* Your balance is now $0 and you complete the purchase + +[See the step by step mock-up](http://imgur.com/a/UnKc8) + +Honey is simply selling you an Amazon gift card for bitcoins, like Gyft. The difference is in the user experience. The same technology we're using to automatically apply coupon codes can be used to apply gift cards, and it makes the experience frictionless. It should feel exactly the same as paying for something with your CC. + +Some additional benefits: + +* We will be introducing the concept of bitcoins to our 700K users, potentially bringing many of them into the ecosystem +* We will collect and publish data about volume and checkout completion rates as reference for large retailers + +We are a tiny team of developers so we don't want to commit the time to building something like this unless we know people want it. We would love to hear your feedback and if there's enough demand for it, we will build it. + +EDIT: formatting + +EDIT2: Wow, we are floored by the feedback and the support. It looks like we're going to have to build it or we might risk losing our kneecap. We'll be putting the development plans in motion first thing tomorrow. We'll be posting updates on Twitter [@savehoney](https://twitter.com/SaveHoney) periodically. If you are a developer and you want to get invovled, please contact me at george [at] our url. + + + +Over past 5 years: + +- Scotiabank - +17.97% +- BMO - +45.94% +- TD - +49.23% +- RBC - +50% +- CIBC - +40.46% + +Scotiabank has slightly higher dividend yield than the other big banks, but not significantly (around 0.5-1% higher). + +I'm a big fan of their direct banking service (Tangerine) which offers great value with solid marketing. I'm surprised their 5-year performance has been so bad compared to its competition. + +Why is this? +are there any other income tax benefits for a salaried person who also invests most of his income other than normal deductions like 80c and 80d. How do salaried people earning a crore per annum reduce taxes :) +True to its name, this sub is about investing and is strongly skewed towards long term trades. I'm sure there are others like me who don't really relate to PtBV and PE ratio and so on. A trading sub will be oriented towards sharing experiences, tips, maybe even meetups for those who are/want to be good at Day/Swing Trading. Upvote if you are interested and I'll create a new sub. + +Edit - Whew! Wasn't expecting this kind of response. As promised - https://www.reddit.com/r/DinVyapari/ + + +The Supreme Cannabis Company, Inc. engages in the production of medical cannabis products in Canada. + +Supreme Cannabis co has been receiving a lot of attention the last few weeks currently trading at .35 cents CAD. The company is releasing earnings February 12th 2021, [SPRWF Supreme Cannabis Company Inc Q2 2021 Earnings Call | AlphaStreet](https://news.alphastreet.com/earnings/sprwf-supreme-cannabis-company-inc-q2-2021-earnings-call/) , + +There company website: [www.supreme.ca](https://www.supreme.ca/) ( Awesome website name right ) + +An article with info on the company here: [The Supreme Cannabis Company, Inc. (TSE:FIRE) Is About To Turn The Corner - Simply Wall St News](https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/pharmaceuticals-biotech/tsx-fire/supreme-cannabis-shares/news/the-supreme-cannabis-company-inc-tsefire-is-about-to-turn-th) + +Highlights from the article: + +They anticipate the company to incur a final loss in 2020, before generating positive profits of CA$20m in 2021. + +Analyst estimates they expect the company to grow 78% year-on-year, on average. + +Do you believe in FIRE to continue this upward trend? +****************** +**Disclaimer.** Before you start a 2nd mortgage to go long on eth: +This is a super early look into what I have found. I still need to do a full transaction analysis but that will take time. That should let me know what contracts all these strings belong to. For now the info I found should be taken with a grain of salt. For all we know they could all be part of some kid's school project. +***************** +I got curious this last weekend and started running some strings searches inside the leveldb files that make up the ethereum blockchain. +basically this: + + strings *.ldb | grep companyname + +To my surprise I found some companies inside. Here is a snippet : + +* 024855.ldb: Tesla Motors, Inc.z2 +* 418686.ldb: Apple Inc. +* 024855.ldb: Apple Inc.z* +* 420119.ldb: Shipping Inc. +* 420135.ldb: Netflix, Inc.z- +* 418777.ldb: Netflix, Inc. +* 420053.ldb: Viacom Inc.z+ +* 418887.ldb: GeoTrust Inc.1 0 +* 418889.ldb: Uber Inc. Series D Stop +* 419738.ldb: Shanghai Inc. +* 420119.ldb: Shipping Inc. +* 420135.ldb: Netflix, Inc.z- +* 420161.ldb: Applied Materials, Inc. +* 420164.ldb: RInca6 +* 420164.ldb: Incorrect num pl +* 420188.ldb: Siriux XM Holding Inc.z6 +* 420246.ldb: Apple Inc.z* +* 420284.ldb: Property Deed. Inc. Flor. +* 420285.ldb: JD.com, Inc.z, +* 420625.ldb: HempE Distribution Inc ValueB. +* 420627.ldb: RInca6 +* 420658.ldb: Cisco Systems, Inc.z3 +* 420715.ldb: PayPal Holdings, Inc.z5 +* 420757.ldb: Incent Coffee Token. +* 422065.ldb: Micron Technology, Inc. +* 422305.ldb: Dubai Construction Inc + +Also found visa assets: + +* 421065.ldb: VisaLoyalty +* 421133.ldb: Test Asset by David for Visa +* 422141.ldb: Asset by visa +* 422244.ldb: Visa Cash + +And ford lol: + +* 024831.ldb: $fordmotorsb + + +Next steps are to run a script to dump all transaction data to a db and reference it with parent block and transaction hash. I can then search through the data for the companies above. Once transaction hashes are found, you can backtrack the transactions and see what contracts they interact with. This should help clarify what all is being built. Might all end up being some college project. + + +edit: formatting +Just days after Jack Dorsey's resignation as CEO of Twitter, Parag Agrawal is pushing for increased censorship on negative topics regarding certain US elites. With Dorsey - known to be an avid opponent of censorship on the platform - gone, Twitter seems to have gone into an entirely new direction. + +The topic is covered extensively on [Breaking Points](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcUhYKEcZ-8), mentioning the suspension of the Nancy Pelosi Portfolio Tracker - which did nothing more than give an objective overview of Pelosi's trades - as well as accounts covering the Ghislaine Maxwell trials. + +What do you think will be the effect of this shift in company policy on the business? Will it kick off a decline in the platform's popularity as users move away from censorship or will it allow them to increase profits as it gets policy makers on their side? +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. 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I’ve been upgrading my wardrobe and I’ve spent like $1,000 on clothes in the last 6 months, and $400 on shoes. + + +Already live in a HCOL area and I just hope I’m not being an idiot on clothes spending. What do you spend? + + +Also, what kind of clothes do you wear? Honestly I’ll occasionally wear a jacket or sweater that’s about $100. Found some awesome shoes I love for $180 (dressy sneakers), and I love regular $50 hoodies that look good and Tshirts. Nothing ultra fancy. $60 chinos, jeans, etc + + +Edit: I’m male + + + +Edit: why/how does this have 120+ comments all with good happy discussion and replies but zero upvotes? Not complaining but am I missing something? Do they hide upvotes now or is there some reason I’m seeing 0? Lol +New to theta gang, this is the one thing holding me back. I understand when the market is flat you can get more out of selling puts, but in bull runs like we’ve seen since March 2020, wouldn’t you have made more holding shares than CSPs or wheeling? Do most of you do this in addition to long positions for income, or is it your sole strategy? +How does it get value? How is its value determined? How much is decided to print off? Does the government just have free money basically that they can spend anywhere? +When you cut sales tax you incentivize economic activity and the govt only "pays" for it when someone actually makes a purchase while income tax cuts may not incentivize purchases vs savings and could lead to people just pocketing the new money and waiting? +Most commercial public banks - sbi , pnb and private ones - kotak , icici , hdfc + +Are all offering max ~ 5 % annualized returns on fd + +How come this bank IndusInd offers 7 %? +How is it possible that a large cap bank can offer 40 % premium to it peers? + +What is it doing exactly to generate those returns which the big ones cant? + +If one does put in a big corpus what are the chances of the bank defaulting? + +I dont know but this big a premium looks shady . + +Is it another Yesbank in the making? + +And lastly being this risk seeking can be rewarding or destructive? +Always read if you bought Apple 10 years ago at xxxx it would be worth xxxx today. People assume it was luck or smart to buy then and easy hold with how the solid company is. + +I read thousands of articles over the years saying Apple peaked, Android has caught up, techs dated, price to high, sales down...you name it. Holding long is hard is the point, no matter the company. Whether it’s negative press, stock down or stagnant too. + +Apple brand is why I held, they withstood some bad years with making non innovative products due to loyalty and branding product so well. + +And that’s why I’m also long on Tesla, Netflix, peloton....over valued or not. The company to perfect a product first and build a following is tough to over throw, if they stay innovative. +I’m new to forex and crypto. I joined crypto to make a fortune but too bad i went on a big loss. Anyways, i saw on instagram someone saying he could teach me forex and i can earn good money from it. But i know he’s just a scammer. + +- now I know where to start, from babypips. +But is that enough? Do I need anything else to read or watch? +- any tips for me and for my fellow beginners who are interested in learning forex? +- I really want to make this as a full time job and work for my self. +Your help is highly appreciated. +Thanks +Warren Buffett made headlines recently after his recent [virtual Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69rm13iUUgE). + +Buffett sold of all his shares in the major US airlines, and Berkshire announced a record quarterly net loss of nearly $50BN. Berkshire *had* held sizeable positions (around 10%) in the major US airlines. + +As well as this, Buffett also allowed Berkshire's cash stake to rise to a record $137.3BN from $128BN at the end of 2019. + +Clearly, as he is selling at a significant loss, Buffett believes that there is further pain ahead for the airlines. + +The GOAT is not one to fall for the sunk cost fallacy... + +Moreover, his cash position indicates that he doesn't believe that we have reached the stock market bottom yet, although he wouldn't give specifics. + +Others however are more explicitly bearish. + +The numbers are certainly [not looking good](https://fortune.com/2020/03/20/recession-us-gdp-negative-growth-q2-predictions/)... + +**TRUTH 1/2:** + +[1640 CEOs left their posts in 2019](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/2019-had-the-most-ceo-departures-on-record-with-more-than-1600.html), the highest year on record since tracking began in 2002. + +For context, there were 1484 exits in *2008* when the country was embroiled in the financial crisis. + +This trend has continued in 2020, [in January a record 219 CEOs left their posts](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/rapid-ceo-turnover-continues-with-a-record-number-of-top-executives-departing-in-january.html), the highest month on record. + +The economy was going to crash anyway. It was inevitable. + +However, they were afraid of massive protests against corporate greed, massive social unrest, etc so they needed a diversion that would provide an excuse. + +People will think the crash was solely due to the virus and not the numerous fundamental economic and structural issues at play. + +To highlight just a few: we've had the [yield curve inversion](https://www.businessinsider.de/international/yield-curve-inversion-explained-what-it-is-what-it-means-2019-8/?r=US&IR=T), the [repo madness](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-08/repo-blowup-was-fueled-by-big-banks-and-hedge-funds-bis-says), the [record corporate debt](https://www.businessinsider.de/international/us-corporate-debt-10-trillion-record-percentage-economy-expert-warnings-2019-12/?r=US&IR=T), and [corporations being the main source of demand for equities via stock buybacks](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/business/stock-market-buybacks.html) which enrich executives that hit certain earnings per share targets. + +Last year billionaire Peter Thiel, who was part of the notorious Paypal Mafia, [spoke on the dangers of American Exceptionalism](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JRyy2MM-rI). He argues that this has made America "exceptionally un-self-critical" + +Warren Buffett concluded in his virtual meeting: "Never bet against America" + +In other words, never bet against the military industrial complex to enforce American superiority and the power of the dollar as the de facto unit of exchange globally. + +**TRUTH 2/2:** + +As smart contracts pioneer Nick Szabo has stated: + +"Buffett's wealth can be measured less in present cash than in the future cash from the Fed he is right up there at the front of the Cantillon line to get." + +[The Cantillon Effect](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rv5xl1AEeQs) essentially refers to the fact that fiat printing itself increases inequality. + +On a more general note, it is important to remember that, despite his gentle image, Buffett is ruthless in his craft. + +A [New York magazine profile from 1991](https://books.google.de/books?id=veTPZA9TWxsC&pg=PA45&lpg=PA45&dq=1991+new+york+magazine+warren+buffett+Warren+looks+like+a+teddy+bear,+but+mentally+is+he+ever+tough&source=bl&ots=OT8xAOp_-y&sig=ACfU3U2s1_9PvAvkaw4w5BSh0l1KgG1yhA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjtvP2__ZzpAhUG3aQKHfcYA1kQ6AEwFXoECAkQAQ#v=onepage&q=1991%20new%20york%20magazine%20warren%20buffett%20Warren%20looks%20like%20a%20teddy%20bear%2C%20but%20mentally%20is%20he%20ever%20tough&f=false) stated: + +"Though he appears homey and guileless and cultivates a hayseed image, Buffett can be iron-fisted." + +According to a senior Salomon trader: "Warren looks like a teddy bear, but mentally is he ever tough." + +Yes, Buffett has dropped numerous gems throughout the years, but ultimately his responsibility is to Berkshire Hathaway and his own, sizeable, bags. + +Overall, it would be foolish to overlook Buffett's current cash position. + +When everything is dirt cheap and we do eventually hit the bottom, he will be flush with cash and ready to aggressively sweep up bargains. + +At the moment, it is clear that he believes these bargains are not present, and therefore it would be wise to consider the fact that we may have further downside in store... + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsAfJMNtxsU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsAfJMNtxsU) +Seems like inside information/briefings . Stock market is heavily manipulated by the elite and algos . What a joke . Dude sells it all at the peak while telling us chumps everything is fine so we keep holding. + +https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness +Look into chartering a captain and catamaran for an island beach trip this summer. There are many smaller websites that have offerings for this but I’m curious if anyone here has done anything like that and has recommendations? +Alright. . . I'm looking to start some controversy. This is the discussion of the century. The great bambino of topics. . . The alpha and omega. + +For you dividend investors - - - + +1. Are you investing for dividends inside of a retirement account like a ROTH? If so, why? + +2. Are you investing for dividends inside a taxable account and if so why? + +I can see the reasons for both. Both accounts have many benefits but also drawback. In my opinion, I want to use my dividend income now instead of only having access to it at 59/60. . . I'm looking to be financially independent sooner than 59. Why would you put dividends inside a Roth and not be able to use those dividends while you are young? Thoughts? +I am a new member of Fortune Cookie, the token has been out for 3 days now and I have been surprised by how active the developers are. The community will make a suggestion for a website feature and sometimes they have already implemented it within the hour. They have implemented a bot in the telegram that tells you the winners of the lottery and how many transactions until the next one, with more updates in the pipeline that will make it easier. I have high hopes for this project, and I actually trust these developers to stick with this coin for the long run unlike some of the other coins that the developers just abandon. +In this day and age with the recent influx of scams such as rug pulls and honeypots, it is important to mention--as an obligatory message--that the ownership is fully renounced, and liquidity is locked for your safety! + +Now, on to what ingredients go into this coin! + +The developers of 🍩Donut Charts🍩 are proud to introduce to you, their brand new gem: + +💎Welcome to Fortune Cookie!💎 + +🥠 What is Fortune Cookie? + +Fortune Cookie is quite simple: A lottery token where you can earn just by trading! 10% is taxed on every transaction and added to the fortune pot. For every 50 transactions, one holder gets the entire fortune pot. + +Conditions: You must be a holder who has at least 2% of the pots value, one lucky holder will be selected! Will your cookie bring you fortune? + +🥠 Tokenomics: + +- 10% to the Fortune Pot – which is won by a random holder every 50 transactions! + +- 5% back to Liquidity + +- 3% to the Marketing Wallet – for 24/7 marketing! + +- 2% Burnt to hell + +- Max Per Transaction: 5B Tokens (0.5%) – so no whales! + +- Max Per Wallet: 20B Tokens (2%) – so no whales! + +💻 Contract Address: 0xca94698f5a683939700ea611d6ada30cae632a9d + +💻 BSCScan: https://bscscan.com/token/0xca94698f5a683939700ea611d6ada30cae632a9d + +💻 Telegram Group: http://t.me/FortuneCookieV2 + +Come on and join the community – I’m feeling robust and optimistic about what fortune the future holds! + +The developers say big marketing plans are in store! CoinGecko, CMC and Blockfolio listings will be applied for. + +Once again, ownership has been fully renounced and the liquidity pool is entirely locked! + +🔥 ALL LIQUIDITY POOL BURNT +🔥 OWNERSHIP RENOUNCED + +For any other questions or information, such as the Official Fortune Cookie website, please visit the Official Fortune Cookie Telegram group! +It hasn’t felt like the best thing because your frustration and your sense of injustice were both strongly activated, and those are two of the most painful psychological states to bear. + +In behavioral terms frustration is the result of not getting the expected reinforcement from a repeated behavior. In this case smashing the buy button repeatedly is supposed to make the price go up. In training circles when a behavior stops being reinforced in any way it’s called extinction, and it’s the most effective way as a trainer to make an undesirable behavior from the subject disappear. + +But in the GME case a deep seated sense of injustice rose up at around the same time as buying behavior was being subjected to extinction, because anyone with open eyes saw and continues to see the market manipulation. + +So we had two potent psychological forces at work, one behavioral and one existential. While these forces both evoke painful feelings they actually worked in opposition to each other since repeated frustration compelled giving up, non-buying behavior while that sense of injustice compelled continuing the struggle buying behavior. I guess their sophisticated quants weren’t able to capture that duality. + +Obviously the buying behavior won out, and as we stand here on the precipice of the moass it’s worth remembering that while the emotions evoked may have been painful at times, rationally speaking what the opposition has put us through has only strengthened us and put the vast majority of shares directly into the hands of diamond handed apes. That knowledge should evoke joy and hope, not frustration or despair. +Hi all - + +Long time poster here but throwaway for my details. + +I'm currently marketing my business for sale. It's a private label ecommerce business with in-house manufacturing. EBITDA is $3M-$3.5M per year, creeping up each year though fluctuating month-to-month. + +In a year of marketing it I've connected with one substantially interested PE firm who wrote up a value of about $21M but that was on condition that we reached $4M in EBITDA. We did not, but I liked the idea of \~5x multiple. + +I'm now working with an industry competitor who has expressed big interest but no numbers yet. I'm struggling with what kind of multiples to accept that make sense. To me, 5x is probably my line that I really want to see, just because a lot can happen in 5 years. Down in the range of 3x makes little to no sense to me - I'd rather force myself to retire from the day to day and let my employees run it. How bad could it possibly get in 3 years? 3 years of income seems like a small amount for this thing that I've spent my whole adult life working on. 15+ years of toil! + +I'm curious to hear from those who have sold in the past, what was your multiple? Were you happy with it short/long term? Obviously there's much more to a deal than just the multiple - how did that sway you? + +Thanks in advance! +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +My Grandfather passed away and I had the opportunity to buy his house that is bigger than what we live in right now. I’m going to keep the house we are in now as a rental. I have a renter lined up and will cash flow ~$300 a month. + +It isn’t how I planned on getting into the game by any means but I think that’s how life works. Taking advantage of the opportunity. Plan to live in new house for a few years, save more and then buy our “forever” home and hold onto this new one. + +I’m thankful for this sub because otherwise I would not have thought to do this. +A significant US-based hedge fund defaulted on margin calls made last week by Credit Suisse and certain other banks. Following the failure of the fund to meet these margin commitments, Credit Suisse and a number of other banks are in the process of exiting these positions. + +[https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CREDIT-SUISSE-GROUP-AG-9364979/news/Credit-Suisse-nbsp-Trading-Update-32822943/](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CREDIT-SUISSE-GROUP-AG-9364979/news/Credit-Suisse-nbsp-Trading-Update-32822943/) +I have been working on a video for around a month on Tom Cruz, and have a lot of questions about his 5k course and wealth in general. I have found numerous fake emails wrote by him, he seems to practically make up random figures of money which he claims to be earning, and much more strange behaviour. + +Does anyone know Tom in person or had any experience with him? Or if you have bought his course, I would love to hear about it. Cheers. +I am in a bit of a dilemma. I have about 5 SFH rentals all in the same city, one is a townhouse that was my first purchase and was not purchased as an investment property. Due to working out of state for many years I rented the townhouse (primary residence) property for the majority of the time and depreciated it on my tax returns. However, due to marriage / kids I am thinking about relocating back to my original State to build a family home I will permanently live in. Since I already have a primary residence loan (under the townhouse), I would have to do an investment property loan for my new construction real primary residence. To forgo that, I want to sell my Townhouse and then get a new construction loan as my primary residence. + +My question is this, can I sell my townhouse, do a 1031 exchange to avoid the depreciation recapture / gains tax, use that for my new construction personal home? Remember my townhouse was NOT originally purchased as an investment property but was used as one for many years. However I do not want to start depreciating the new primary residence home and treating it as an investment. I am wondering if it converts to a personal primary residence at that point? +I was a religious thetagang member since July 2020 , but got lured to /wsb last month and literally lost all my hard work and profits earned in the last 8 months, along with minus 20% from my capital. + +My capital journey + +Started in July with 100K -> went to 117K -> then went back to 93K(Lost 24K in Sep crash) -> 123K(Recovered well in 3 months) -> Fall in WSB bullshit GME short squeeze thing -> Lost 44K -> Back to $79K. + +Check my thetagang performance - [https://thetagang.com/sonusood](https://thetagang.com/sonusood) + +Capital preservation is the main thing for the retailer traders. But I broke my own rule. Just do not want to get into depression. I was in depression for a year or so in the past. + +&#x200B; + +I hope this gives a lesson to other members. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) Last ban length: 1,048,576 days + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) +Yesterday evening I made a bank transfer to my crypto\_dot\_com fiat wallet. This is something that I\`ve done many times in the last few months with very little problem and I even have them as a saved payee. Occasionally I\`ve had to complete anti fraud checks; such as responding to my banking app or a SMS notification to confirm that it was me making the transfer. However, last night my balance didn't update, so I assumed that I\`d not hit confirm and so made a smaller test payment. This time I received an error message "RPS01" that said their have been issues with the payment system and to check again in 4hrs. + +I made a payment to another card account to see if it was their system or specifically CDC and those went through fine. I opened up a chat with them and was told a similar message, that they couldn't confirm the status of the transfer but they're normally resolved in 4hrs. I was also able to use the CDC visa card top-up from the same source. + +This morning I went to login to my mobile app to check the status and found that I was locked out. The same with my online banking. I had an error code (RG21M) that suggested that my account did not exist and a message to phone them. + +The number took me through to their anti fraud, so I thought that perhaps they'd been a bit heavy handed but it would be a simple case of confirming that I\`d made the payment. Instead, after confirming my ID and explaining the circumstances surrounding the payment, I was told that they'd escalate my case to another department. There where I was told "your account was locked due to the nature of your activity being related to cryptocurrency purchases or investments" and that they would now read me a statement. To reinstate my account, I would have to answer a series of questions that could take up to 30 minutes and that my responses would be digitally recorded. + +I had no choice but to agree, and thankfully it took much less time than that due to me pre-empting some of their questions. I was told that if I continued with the payment then I was not protected by them. At the end of the call, I asked whether my account would now be free to send further payments to this account and was told that it was likely that future payments may get flagged. + +To give you an idea of some of the questions that I was asked... + +\- What research have I done into Cryptocurrencies? Am I aware of the risks around them? How long have I been purchasing Cryptocurrencies? + +\- Why did I pick this particular exchange? Why did I trust them and what due diligence had I done? + +\- Who had advised me to invest? Was I investing on behalf of anyone else? What was the source of my funds for the investment etc etc + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +//edited post to provide some evidence [Barclays Crypto Block](https://imgur.com/gallery/EIsPDXu) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Find the latest Altcoin Discussion thread in [this search listing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3Aaltcoin&include_over_18=on&sort=new&t=all). + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +[https://www.reuters.com/article/china-banks-regulator-baoshang-bank/update-1-chinese-regulator-to-take-over-baoshang-bank-due-to-credit-risks-idUSL4N2302JN](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-banks-regulator-baoshang-bank/update-1-chinese-regulator-to-take-over-baoshang-bank-due-to-credit-risks-idUSL4N2302JN) + +&#x200B; + +Baoshang Bank, a commercial bank with \~10k employees and over $61B total asset is facing severe credit risk and now being taken over by PBOC. This might the first bank run and bank bailout by PBOC after 1979 (Chinese economic reform) + +&#x200B; + +I \*believe\* that there have been other bank "failures" in China, but instead of being publicly announced as a failure after a bank run, the shitty banks of the past were simply pulled into one of the state owned banks instead of this being so public. + +&#x200B; + +Not a huge bank by any means, but I find it interesting that they're being public with this instead of sweeping it under the rug. I wonder if this will be interpreted as a sign of weakness... [Chanos apparently views this as a big deal.](https://twitter.com/WallStCynic/status/1131972068147376128) +I own some rental properties and in the past I've always used biggerpockets as my go-to for getting property management recommendations. + +I just created a new thread asking for Orlando STR managers, and within 2 minutes I was messaged saying my posting was removed because asking for referrals is like advertising and I have to purchase their PRO plan to post advertisements. + +Feels to me like a money grab, I'm very disappointed they're turning this way. What's another good resource to ask fellow investors for people/company recommendations? + +**EDIT:** I understand a lot of people share my frustration with BP's new direction. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like there are any alternatives yet (I'm not going to keep using BP anymore, just sucks there's no other forum to fill the void) +https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/doj-fines-boeing-over-2point5-billion-charges-it-with-fraud-conspiracy-over-737-max-crashes.html + + +>The Department of Justice on Thursday said Boeing agreed to pay more than $2.5 billion to resolve criminal charges stemming from crashes of its best-selling 737 Max airplanes. +Like most of you I read the post « Attention Superstonk » from the mods. I fully understand the point of view of Reddit Admins and I really appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the mods. + +Unfortunately, bad actors could easily get Superstonk banned/nuked in less than 24h anytime from now by impersonating r/superstonk users and intentionally breaking the reddit admins rules. Seing the dedicated level of fuckery from the bad actors, why would they not try that? And they will hit at our worst time to create mass panic. + +Better be safe than sorry, I think it’s time to set up an official Mastodon server for Superstonk as a Plan B, it will be an ark of Noah just in case. + +A lot of nice apes try to make one, there are now multiple unofficial superstonk. + +I think it should be made by the mods and pinned as the official mastodon for our community (I also feel bad to ask mods more work, they already do an incredible job). + +Or we could designate an already existing Mastodon superstonk server as the official one but this introduce more risks than the mods making the official one. + +Worst case scenario: a few hours wasted setting up the servers +Best case scenario: it’s the ark of Noah and limit mass panic incase r/Superstonk is nuked + +Feel free to talk about it but seriously I see it coming, they will nuked the sub (speculation of course) + +Edit : TL;DRS : +The subreddit r/superstonk is now vulnerable and bad actors could now get it banned instantly from now, setting up an official Mastodon server by the mods would allow us to considerably mitigate this vulnerability and to have a Plan B. Being 100% dependent on Reddit is a risk that bad actors will exploit (if I was them with the same ill intentions). +**BACKGROUND** + +**Introduction**: This post is part of an early-retirement series. Biennial updates will be made around June 1 (near retirement anniversary) and January 1 (end of year finances). As these posts have become increasingly popular based on the number of views and comments, and as my desire to spend nearly an entire day on reddit has significantly waned, my responses might be limited. I’ll try my best to stick around for a bit, but please check comments and posts from previous posts to find answers to potential questions. I genuinely appreciate all of the positive comments, even though I might no longer take the time to say so individually. I apologize if I don’t remember you individually. The usernames and stories run together. Please remind me of a discussion we had or provide a link if it’s relevant to something you want to know. + +**Model**: I wish to maintain a portfolio that began in June 2017 at $1,025,772. My maximum withdrawal rate is 3% of each year’s starting balance, provided that the portfolio remains above $1M. My maximum spending rate is the maximum withdrawal plus income earned outside of employment for the sake of income. Should the portfolio drop below $1M, I will lock back into a maximum $2500/mo ($30k/yr) guardrail withdrawal until the market recovers. I realize that this is not the holy Trinity method, but consider these three factors that give us flexibility: a 3% withdrawal rate is below the 100% historically safe mark of 3.2% for fifty-year portfolio survival, the extended bull market has peaked us more than 20% above our $1M target (meaning that $36k annually is actually a 3% withdrawal rate if restarting from the peak); and our actual withdrawal rate is much less than 3% due to earning additional income and an unexpected $30k windfall in 2018 (placing our actual withdrawal rate well below 1%). The budgeted withdrawal amount for 2019 is $2638/mo or $31,656/yr. In 2017, it was $2564/mo ($2676/mo adjusted for inflation). In 2018, it was $2773/mo ($2834/mo adjusted for inflation). + +**Career**: I am a former retail pharmacist who hated both his job and profession for the following reasons: unacceptable amounts of stress, lack of civility from the general public, capitalism gone amok, fundamental disagreement with the overuse of pharmacotherapy as an answer for underlying health issues, and a severe opiate crisis that few have yet to appreciate. I attended college for eight years to earn a bachelors (1997-2001) and a doctorate (2001-2005) before joining the workforce for nearly twelve years (2005-2017, entirely with CVS). $150k in education costs were covered by academic scholarships ($25k), employment during college ($20k), prior savings from high school employment ($5k), revenue from an eBay business while in college ($10k), and massive help from my parents ($90k). My salary plus compensation went from $115k in 2005 to $150k in 2017. Our savings rate was about 70% on average. + +**Finances**: I retired at the age of 38 on June 6, 2017, the day before the twentieth anniversary of my high school graduation. I am married with no kids and generated over 95% of the family income while employed. We live in LCOL rural TN. Our asset allocation is approximately 60% VTSAX (total US stock market) / 20% VFWAX (total INTL stock market) / 20% VWLUX (US municipal bonds). We also hold roughly $400k in house, land, and belongings not included in the portfolio. My spending model places no dependence upon possible future employment (outside pharmacy?), social security ($10k/yr?), inheritance ($500k?), house equity (reverse mortgage with no heirs?), universal health care (probable?), or universal basic income (possible?). The final balance will be left to charities and worthy causes. + + +**YEAR TWO RECAP** + +**Spending**: Living expenses for the year came to $39,954. This is $7,353 over the targeted amount of $32,601. Our spending was 22.6% over budget for the year and 18.8% over since retirement. We generated $13,263 of income this year mainly from my wife wanting to work part time (not for money). Our investment withdrawal was $26,691 this year, thus our pro-rated, annually-adjusted withdrawal rate was 2.37% for the year, and 0.81% since retirement. Without the additional income stream, our annually-adjusted withdrawal rate would have been 3.68% for the year, and 3.56% since retirement. + +**Investments**: The portfolio went from $1,025,772 (year zero) to $1,146,164 (year one) to $1,138,092 (year two). This is a 0.99% decrease for the year, but a 10.95% increase from the start. Dividends included, VTSAX (60% AA) went up 1.48% this year; VFWAX (20% AA) went down 6.18% this year; VWLUX (20% AA) went up 6.58% this year. Overall, investments went up 0.97% this year. + +**Reflections**: A wild year for the market, but everything seems to be going as planned. We entered year two of early retirement at $1.146M on 6/1, peaked at $1.199M on 9/20, bottomed at $1.008M on 12/24, peaked again at $1.202M on 5/3, and finished back down at $1.138M. I can’t say that I ever gave serious thought to converting stocks to a more stable form of investment, but it did often cross my mind. Sure, I wish I had temporarily jumped out near the market peak, but I’m also glad I didn’t jump out in 2008/2010/2011/2015 when dart throwing monkeys were howling just as loud as ever. I don’t know how this imbecilic and unnecessary trade war nonsense is going to work itself out, but Wall Street definitely views it as imbecilic and entirely unnecessary. What I view as entirely unnecessary is the existence of a representative democracy that allows imbeciles to have an equal say with intellectuals. What I view as intriguing is the thought of wearing an infinity gauntlet, but that’s another story for another day. On the other hand (literally), this whole process doesn’t work without imbeciles, so maybe everyone can stay and report to rehabilitation camps instead. + +**Experiences**: I consider these to be the highlights of my second year in early retirement: ran over 2000 miles, broke three hours in a marathon for the third and fourth time (third one is my current PR at 2:48:30, fourth one was on the toughest road course in the southeast at 2:57:56 which is the course record by over 36 minutes), lowered my half-marathon PR (from 1:25:04 to 1:21:06 in October, then 1:19:57 in February, then 1:19:43 in April which was enough to win the state championship), set a personal record in the 1500m swim (finally getting under 2:00/100yd pace with the help of a wetsuit), took my first solo vacation in many years (went to New Orleans for a day and was bored to tears), played disc golf for the first time in over thirty years (better at this than normal golf), continued to write in my daily journal every single day since retirement without exception (focusing on weird dreams), took up the occasional evisceration of intellectually handicapped people who say stupid things in local facebook groups (no shortage of idiots in this part of the country), tackled all of my CE requirements (including 15 hours of article examinations in 45 minutes – broken system), became a certified volunteer ESL teacher for a semester with a nonprofit program (teaching intermediate level classes in English), volunteered in a voter registration drive at a small library branch (no one showed up), volunteered as a 1:30 pacer in a charity half marathon (always great to offer comedic relief when running at a pace that most people can only dream of), squandered hundreds of hours playing PS4 games (Final Fantasy XII: Zodiac Age, Final Fantasy XV, Dragon Quest XI, Ni No Kuni 2, Spider-Man, Fallout 4, Dragon Age: Inquisition, GTA V, and Persona 5 – I didn’t care much for Red Dead Redemption 2 or God of War – there were others that were quicker plays), increased my count to 650+ movies on TSPDT 1000 (including 430+ of the top 500), collected some more vintage sports cards (pictures of men with moustaches), completed and self-published my sci-fi novella (Remember I Was Vapour), interviewed for and dealt with the fallout from five media articles (more on this below), participated in an apparently abandoned 60-second doc on financial independence (not sure why it was ditched), participated in an apparently abandoned financial pharmacist podcast (perhaps I spent too much time degrading the profession instead of talking about the topic of the show – early retirement, if I recall the topic correctly), applied for and turned down a non-retail pharmacy job offer (applied on a whim and got an offer fifteen minutes later, plus a bad commute and onset of panic), helped my parents do repairs (roof, gutters, tractor, etc.), built a new mailbox (for UPS packages and such), did a lot of litter pickup (before this trendy but wonderful trashtag thing started), made preliminary but detailed itineraries for several future vacations (Japan #2, Japan #3, Denmark/Sweden/Norway, California #2, Portugal/Spain/Morocco, Uganda/Tanzania, Australia/NZ, Egypt/Greece, Finland/Russia, UK, Latin America, SE Asia), dealt with the brief emotional impact of having my best friend from ninth grade commit suicide (I’m fine, but seriously, don’t ask), and celebrated my 40th birthday by doing a blitzkrieg of stuff that I loved growing up. + +**Media**: I was featured in two NYT articles, two Business Insider articles, and one Big Think article. I even created a blog for the sole purpose of getting some amazon click-thru revenue from those NYT articles. Three of my real-life friends saw the first NYT article (style section) without me mentioning it to anyone I know. However those articles failed to include a proper link to my blog because some idiotic web designer didn’t know what the hell he/she was doing. You would not believe the amount of incompetence and the explanations I was getting from that end. Sorry, I don’t feel like reliving it in detail. They eventually fixed their mess, but it was far too late to make a difference for traffic flow. Still, this didn’t stop a legion of people from stalking me on strava and facebook. I had to politely turn away most of the people who wanted to meet up, but I made time for most fellow marathoners, pharmacists, and redditors. Hopefully my fifteen minutes have passed. I might shut down the blog because I don’t really do anything with it. I refused pictures, and I’m glad I did since they successfully made the participants look like total douchebags. And coming from me, that’s saying something. + +**Routine**: Comparing my daily habits in year two compared to pre-retirement, I increased my swimming (currently on hiatus), weightlifting (on hiatus), volunteering (on hiatus), hiking (several treks), movie watching, puzzle solving, family time, housework, yardwork, cooking, kayaking, stargazing, socializing, painting, bowling, videogame playing, reading (20-30 books), writing, studying astronomy, napping, and watching television (Game of Thrones, Arrested Development [new seasons], Cosmos [fifth time], Parts Unknown). Things I failed to make much progress on were learning to play an instrument (lack of talent and interest), improving my Spanish and Japanese (other than ESL class – and I pushed the second three-week Japan vacation back again to 2021), being able to bench press my body weight (tough hill to climb, and running takes all of my energy), helping fight the opiate epidemic in online discussions (dealing with imbecilic addicts who know nothing beyond anecdotes, personal attacks, and fallacious logic is wearisome), reducing internet time (tough to turn away when a particular group is responsible for the moral and intellectual erosion of the country), and deconverting religious adherents (taking a long break). + +**Upcoming**: What lies ahead in year three? I plan on running 3000+ miles and participating in a few more races before leaving competition (including a return to the 10-miler that I placed 50th in four years ago, now with hopes of an overall victory and a nearly certain 40+ category victory). I hope to help a friend of mine earn his first sub-three marathon and subsequently accompany him to Boston in 2020 as my final competitive race, but that’s mostly up to him. I would like to break five minutes for the mile (probably will not happen) and 2:45 for the marathon (should be in the bag on the next attempt). I have indefinitely postponed plans for a triathlon due to a total lack of interest in competitive cycling and swimming (and a lack of preparedness by the guy I was going to participate with). A two week trip to Alaska/Washington/Victoria including an overnight backpack in Denali is coming up very soon. Perhaps there will be another trip somewhere in the spring. I’d like to expand the novella to a novel or convert it to a movie script. I’d like to hit 700 on TSPDT 1000. I’d like to bowl a 600 three-game series. I’d like to solve Rubik’s cube in less than one minute. I’d like to expand my understanding of relativity and quantum theories. I need to find some new things to do because it kinda feels like I’m running out of ideas. I need to get out of the house more. I need to worry about volunteering less and focus more on doing things for myself. I need to worry less in general, but I also want to continue making small improvements to the world. I want to enjoy life. I want to do whatever the fuck I want. And I shall. Right after I finish answering some idiotic questions. +I live in the USA, which has provided ample opportunity to earn money, but I can't help but be enticed by the high quality of life offered by non-US cities. Is it worth it to relocate? Does fat-FIRE level in USA basically get you what you need at a comparable level overseas? + +Has anyone else relocated internationally and if so, what was the experience like? Any advice or regrets? +As above, if I have a SIPP and a private workplace pension, can future governments mess about with the age at which I could access them? Ie at the moment it's 57 but could this rise? +Thanks. +hello there good folks, + +I'm a crypto noob doing is DYOR. + +Can someone, in layman terms, explain what are the main differences between those 3 cryptocurrencies ? + +Thank you very much ! +**EDIT 3/14/21: I keep seeing people refer to this old post to say WSB is still compromised. Please engage in reading comprehension. 'will die soon unless the admins save us' was the current state of affairs as of a month ago. If you can't tell, I'm back and things are back to normal. Quit with the nonsense, nobody is paying me or any other mod. The bad mods were removed. It's over.** + +--- + + +We've been taken hostage by the top mods. They left for years and came back when they smelled money. They've been busy creating private email addresses to funnel all the press correspondence away for their own gain, talking shit about all of the active mods, and scrambling to get paid from some movie deal. That's just what we know of. They refer to themselves as "the board of directors" and us as the minimods. + +Reddit's system for subreddit ownership is broke and we begged for help. + +The other plan is that some friend of the top mod's has wormed into his brain and is going to use WSB as a springboard to launch some stupid crypto shit. We're supposed to be impressed and bend over because he says the name winklevoss. We can't stop it. No matter how hard we try to keep the ship stable and moving in the direction it's been moving for years... we continue to be saddled with this team of losers that wants nothing more than to return to cash in on something they didn't even have a hand in making. + +One of them fucking asked "what's fuckboy" yesterday. You should see some of the screenshots I have. + +You deserve to know that this place is being sold out on multiple levels by the people at the top, and that everyone below them wants them gone and is heartbroken. + +They'll probably take this down and remove me and hire some asshole to replace me. Fuck it. Hi CNN. Fucking hilarious some assholes trying to call us OWS when we're literally being occupied. + +No politics. You'd know that if you wrote the damn rules. +Initial July claim: 1.416 mil vs 1.3 mil expected +(This means first-time unemployment insurance benefit filings) +Continuing claims: 16.197 mil vs 17.1 mil expected + +This is pretty surprising given the situation in some states but bullish in the long run. + +Source: +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-claims-coronavirus-unemployment-week-ended-july-18-2020-194718978.html +I grew up poor. No details. As a young adult in community college I lived without electricity and showered at the college. I got a decent job and had some more ups and downs. My whole life has been based on treading water. + +I had saved enough for a down payment on a crappy house. It was the most I had ever had. 12k. As a single parent at 33 years old, I'd find myself looking at my bank account in awe. Twelve thousand dollars. In the bank. I had made it... For a time It made me feel proud, but it eventually made me feel so small. I was aware of the stock market and even suggested other people jump in last year when it plummeted. + +Six weeks ago, I took a chance at changing my fortune and finally opened a trading account. I've since quadrupled my net worth. I'm at a point where my initial investment is safe. But it feels so fragile. Friday was rough. I am constantly checking tickers, feeds and news. I've cashed and reinvested and taxes are an unknown shadow in the back of my mind even though I recognized that issue early. I started out overextended and the swings are getting bigger. + +There was one day this week ticker-wise that was so euphoric.... A life changing day. I was jumping up and down with my little daughter, cheering like my loser Jaguars had won the Superbowl. I was cry laughing. Sobbing. And I think I had chest pains... + +(I made no emotional moves) + +Honestly, I had a point to this when I started typing and could go on and on... But I've realized the real point is that some people here probably just need to know there are others riding this bull market with equal cluelessness or uncertainty. I can't tell you to buy or sell because I dont know. But I'm rooting for you and I probably am you. + +Edit: Thank you for all the positive comments as well as the criticisms. The criticism will only help me make more informed decisions. +I don't see many posts from people who invest professionally and full-time, with other people's money. Beyond REITs, where do people who have real estate investing as their day job work? What kinds of positions do they have? What are the usual fee schedules; how do they make their money? +Between all of the events happening in the world right now and recent major media outlets talking about climate refugees and refuge cities that will be harbours for people, I’ve started thinking more about investing for and in anticipation of, climate change. + +Is anyone else thinking about this? How are you working through this thesis, and what companies do you think will be in a strong position to benefit humanity and themselves as a result of climate change? +Edit 3: +First off I just want to say thank you for all the comments and discussions, very informative. Over all most of the comments were good constructive criticism and I seriously appreciate that. Basically might as well just rename this post "in an ideal education system, how can we implement/ improve financial education ". My suggestion after taking many of your inputs. Lightly touch money management in elementary school, maybe just throw it in with basic math class. Middle/high school, maybe have a two day a week class talking more about money management and touching other subjects. Maybe 2nd semester sophomore year, have a one day seminar/workshop. Which they can later choose to further their knowledge in jurior and senior years if they want. + +As of right now and throughout history there has been very little taught to kids/young adults about finance. Because of this and after generations of of people not getting any form of financial advice, it is now accepted and "normal" to be thousands of dollars in debt. People go their whole lives living paycheck to paycheck, never paying off their debt or having a savings/retirement plan. + +If we can make financial education classes a mandatory requirement just like math, science, and history. It would severely help the average American family to be financially stable. A lot of people don't invest because they don't understand the terminology or how it works. Luckily now we live in an age of youtube and that basic knowledge is a lot more easier to obtain, but it's still not hitting the demographic needed, which are teenagers. Which is the best time to start budgeting and investing, when you get your first job. + +If we could make classes about budgeting, saving, investing, retirement, ect. Mandatory classes in high schools, it would reduce the amount of debt average people owe. Eventually we will come full circle and the parents will start teaching their kids financial education. + +Edit 1: +like many commenters mentioned. One main issue would be the students lack of interest. So instead of cramming it all at the end of their grade schooling, what if it is just like the other classes and teach it throughout their whole grade school life? Just like teaching the same thing in history and English class every year, eventually some parts will stick. And if they want to learn more they can choose to continue those classes in high school, like AP classes. + +Edit 2: ok so its mandatory in some states, but from the sound of it most of the classes are basically a joke, so maybe ways to improve it? +As outlined in my previous deal breakdown post [https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/d6kjjd/new\_rental\_purchase\_breakdown\_on\_mckinley\_st/](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/d6kjjd/new_rental_purchase_breakdown_on_mckinley_st/) I recently purchased a house on 2 lots for $10K cash. We just finished renovation under budget for a total of about $5K...so my total all in price on this house is $15,589 after closing costs and all other fees. Work included cleaning out the house and garages from all the junk that was left behind, fixing all the windows, fixing crumbling siding, small roof repair, drywall repair, installing bathroom shower, new heating, building out new closets and shelving, new lighting, new flooring, new paint, a few small electrical repairs, and probably a few things I'm forgetting. All that is left is final cleanup. I had the guys snap a few quick pictures so you can see the transformation. [https://imgur.com/a/bTeExU6](https://imgur.com/a/bTeExU6) We already have tenants in place for $650 a month, and they will be moving in this weekend. +*Stunned by the large number of projects jumping ship from Ethereum*...OH WAIT, that is not happening...at all. + +As an investor, I don’t just perform my own direct analysis of a project or company. I look for secondary indicators of the analysis others perform, via their actual decisions (i.e., investing time and money). + +Many of the people developing the literally hundreds of projects on Ethereum are among the most knowledgeable individuals in the Blockchain space. + +How many of them have decided, after all of *their own technical research* that Ethereum will not meet their needs, and that they must switch to EOS, NEO, Cardano, Hashgraph, or whatever? + +*Answer: Almost none.* And that is very, very telling. + +If those platforms were actually expected to be that much better by those in the know, and could deliver faster than Ethereum, you would see developers jumping ship en masse and every new project being developed on those platforms. But they are not. And those very few that have moved are often exposed as borderline pump and dump cash grabs (e.g., KIN to Stellar, then not). + +Ethereum continues to enjoy by far the best developer network effect. Thousands of those smart developers think scaling will happen and work, and possibly very soon / before anyone else. So do I. That’s why I continue to hold my ETH and buy more as the market value declines. +Hi, I am fairly new to ETFs and still learning. I have been wanting to invest in Vietnam stocks as it is emerging as the next manufacturing hub, from furniture to semiconductors. I was wondering is anyone has any expeience in investing in Vietnamese ETFs and also any educated opinion on the same is also welcome! Thanks in advance! +I came across a property where some so-called note buying "Gurus" called Aerial Funding that sell online courses about note trading got themselves into a pickle and thought it is a good lesson for others out there + +They look to be some husband and wife that are trying to cash in on the RE investing educational craze that don't have.a full grasp of what they are doing. Long story short, they purchased a 2nd note on a property that had modified the original mortgage after the last recession absorbing the 2nd note they purchased, which significantly increased the 1st mortgage balance, so was supposed to have been canceled however neither the cancelation of the 2nd note, nor the modification of the 1st were ever recorded. + +They tried to strong arm the owner into signing a new 2nd mortgage rather than waiting to get it straightened out and when they refused, the "Gurus" foreclosed on the 2nd note only to find out the 1st mortgage they now have to pay off is $20,000 more than the property just appraised for and there is over $100k in repairs needed to get the home up to market value. Basically these genius "gurus" just bought themselves a very expensive problem in which there is no way they will not lose a lot of money. I guess this is karma for trying to do this kind of BS during a pandemic. +Just breached the 50 dollars a month threshold. My dream is to hit 40k per year, but that’s a long ways down the road. + +Edit: what strategies are you taking to reach your goals? Stocks v etf’s, growth transitioning to income. Etc. +Tried to do some research and couldn’t find any advice on this. I generally keep only $300-500 in my checking account on purpose at any given time. I have a credit card that I use for normal day to day purchases for points, fraud protection, credit building, and other pros of using credit cards. After I pay it off every month and bills/rent, I put the difference in saving then keep my debit account relatively low. I’m paranoid that if I lose my wallet or get robbed, someone will try to drain my debit with no recourse from the bank, that’s why I use my credit card as a “debit card.” All of the websites I see say keep 1-2 months of expenses on there, which for me would be around 2-6k. I thought that’s what a savings account was for? Thanks +Not sure where else to ask this, I’m currently a 17 year old attending high school. I have been working at a fast food restaurant for 2 years. January this year, the store manager unexpectedly left and I was increased to 5 shifts a week and 30-38 hours and very unofficially took on the role of store manager. + + +At the beginning of March, I requested that my pay be increased (currently on the award wage $14.60/hr) and was told by my boss “already bumped to level 3, we reassess in a month” His idea of having already giving me a pay rise is extremely frustrating as me being paid as a “level 3” by definition means being responsible for the store and 3+ employees at a time, therefore it’s something I’m legally entitled to. + +Currently, I feel very unappreciated for the work I’m putting in for the businesses success. I am very frequently achieving sales, labour and food goals. I’m unhappy with my job majorly due to the pay for the roles and responsibilities I fulfil on a weekly basis. + +A few days ago, I spoke to the owner of an exciting fast food franchise soon to be opening in my area. After discussing my previous experience and competency, I was immediately offered training in a few weeks time and also a start date if I wish to accept. + +I know that my store will go to shit for a while if I were to leave and the owner will need to spend far more of his time there, which he’s already adamant on not wanting to. + +I am not immature in expecting unreasonable pay for my age like, $30/hr, not even $25/hr. But operating a business doing $20k gross sales weekly and also seeing the healthy net weekly profit. + +I have plateaued and my job is fairly easy for me I just know I deserve more compensation. + +My question is, would putting in a two weeks resignation letter in an attempt to try and be counter offered more $ to stay a smart idea? + +Edit: Thanks so much guys for sharing with me your thoughts, knowledge and experiences. I’ve had a phone call discussion with my boss about my recent lack in motivation at work due to my low pay. I gave him a stern ultimatum to downgrade my position and responsibilities if he were to continue paying me at this rate, or give me a considerable increase in pay to continue this role. We are having an in person meeting in two days “regarding the pay rise” +Many people view their crypto buys as long term investments and many people are in it for the quick sexy gains. + +But looking back, those who bought BTC in 2016 and didn't sell are doing incredibly well with their initial investment. + +However with the potential insane short term gains in this market, most people sell after a relatively short period or buy and sell chasing pumps. + +We've seen tons of posts about when to sell and nailing the exact right time. How many of you won't be selling at all this bull run? +5 years... + +I cant stop losing. No matter what I play. Puts, calls, commons, using TA, using Options order flow, darkpools etc etc.... I lose no matter what. + +&#x200B; + +About $3k down more this week. I'm running out of funds. So I'm done day-trading and short term swings. + +&#x200B; + +I don't have enough to invest in real estate . Basically the market is my best bet. + +&#x200B; + +I really cant stand the thought of my money just sitting in my bank account doing nothing, but my shit trading isn't doing me any favors... + +&#x200B; + +Where should I just load the boat and look away? + +&#x200B; + +TSMC? DIS? GOOG? NVDA? INTC? BABA? AMZN? + +&#x200B; + +I know you guys hate these "tell me what to do and I will blindly follow" posts. But I give up. 98% of you guys are smarter and better at this than me. My dumbass analysis, studying clearly is shit. +tl;dr - trading CFD's is the equivalent of drag racing your drunk mate down the freeway into oncoming traffic. No self respecting adult would bother with them, CFD's are for cocaine-snorting thrill-seeking morons (like me apparently) who have no respect for risk management. Don't gamble with your savings. + +&#x200B; + +**What are CFDs** + +CFD's are 'Contracts for Difference'. Very simply, if you have a trading account with the right permissions you can trade in CFD's. + +**Why are they dangerous** + +Because say you trade $250, on a normal trade (ie stocks etc) if the price falls by 10% you lose $25, which sucks but isn't world ending. CFD's are NOT like that - they are 'leveraged' which just means that if you put up $50 your exposure is many many many many times larger than that + +***EXAMPLE*** + +You buy 50 contracts on a stock that is trading at $100 a share.The stock then drops $10 in value.Your exposure is (50 \* 100) = $5,000 **BUT** because your 'margin' is only 5% of that, the initial amount you put up is a mere $250. + +So to illustrate: + +**Stock Trading** + +Initial Investment - $250 + +Value drop - 10% + +Loss - $25 + +**CFD Trading** + +Initial investment - $250 + +Value drop - 10% + +Loss - $500 + +&#x200B; + +**Closing remarks** + +These things are illegal in the US for a good reason. + +CFD's are for suckers, don't listen to anything that you hear to the contrary. EU regulators say that 76% of CFD accounts lose money. Let me say that again, **76% of these things lose $&\*#ing money**. If the odds at the casino were 1:4 there is no fkn way anybody would go. When you trade CFD's you are essentially just gambling but with WAY WAY worse odds.Cited: [https://www.iexpats.com/76-of-cfd-traders-lose-money-on-their-deals/](https://www.iexpats.com/76-of-cfd-traders-lose-money-on-their-deals/) + +You can't make long investments with CFD's, they aren't a long-term strategy and they are not part of ANY investment strategy with a reasonable risk profile. Please don't make the mistake I did and get sucked into trading them, it's stressful as hell and it is pure bravado driven bullshit. + +&#x200B; + +Stay safe out there folks, times are nuts + +Edit 1: Formatting got stuffed up + +Edit 2: Fixed the maths - cheer to those who pointed it out +I figured that since internships are starting soon for many college students, and I personally don't feel like I have a handle on Excel's full capabilities yet, this would be a useful question for the community. I would also be interested in useful functions on the Bloomberg Terminal or Morningstar Direct. +&#x200B; + +[Taken from Twitter: https:\/\/twitter.com\/tradermayne\/status\/1582979314811047936?s=46&t=o7cHJEwmveKqsuWUf9UgcA](https://reddit.com/link/y98eu1/video/j4l4cegro0v91/player) +I've seen multiple people recently suggesting that it's a good idea to do this, often to people who admit that they couldn't afford to invest otherwise, or admit to already being in debt. + +Ethereum's continuing rise in value *is not a sure thing*. If you're in debt, you absolutely should not be taking on additional high-interest credit card debt to invest. + +The people telling you to do this do not have your best interests in mind, just as the people trying to get you to FOMO in at ATH because "it will be at $1,000 next week!" are only looking out for themselves. +Sadly I lost my mom recently and I was too busy and upset to think about the life insurance check. I got 25k and plan on putting most of it into savings and then investing around 2k (friend is giving me tips since he has done it for years). I have never made more than 1k a month and the most I have ever had saved was 3k. How do I not fuck this up +My grandfather owns a massive apartment building in New York City. He’s likely going to die in the next coming days as he’s very sick. The building is in my name once he dies. There are tons of people who live in the building who pay a large rent every month. Usually, people would be excited about having a constant stable large monthly income. I’m a college student (so I’m obviously very young). I’m not at the point in my life where I can be worrying about being a landlord. I want to follow my passions and finish my education. My father suggested that I use the monthly income to eventually buy more buildings in NYC and increase my ownership. But to be honest, I know absolutely nothing about this kind of stuff. Another sub suggested I hire a financial advisor to help with finding people to run the building and what to do with the money. A part of me just wants to sell the building entirely so I don’t have to deal with it. I know that’s stupid, but I don’t want anything that reminds me of my grandfather. Anyone have any suggestions? + +EDIT: +Thank you all for the advice. I have decided not to sell. I will be researching and calling agencies to run the building. I appreciate all the advice that has been given to me! I know I’m really young, so I’m going to put some of the money away into savings for when I retire so I can live comfortably. I also plan on reinvesting over time in more real estate. +What if a credit related event caused liquidity to dry up. What dividend paying stocks would you buy if there was a 60% haircut on nearly all companies? Leading to dividend yields going up (assuming dividends aren't cut). I would try to avoid companies with debt financed dividend (say Exxon). The risk is that companies can cut their dividend if they have issues with their debt or sales drop off. + +Volatility can be your friend if you have cash on the sidelines. + +I'm focusing on companies that have recession proof dividends. + +My picks: + +Altria, EPD, BTI, EVA, LMNR, VZ + +Energy, tobacco, farmland + +Thoughts? +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I’m having extreme difficulty reconciling the cost of a nice house in my part of the Bay Area with how much I make and my desire for financial independence. I keep running the numbers and a $2.5 million house seems affordable with $100K in savings a year still. That will get about 1800-2000 square foot 3 or 4 bedroom house build 80 years ago. If you want much nicer or bigger you’re talking $3M+. Moving to a cheaper area is not on the table due to my relentless pursuit of a short commute. + +Currently no kids but planning to start in the next few years for 2 or 3 kids. + +The banks are happy to loan me $2M but I’m worried about over leveraging and ending up cramping my modest but comfortable lifestyle, or having to work in big tech for the next 25 years. + +My goals are to continue to advance my career but I might want to take a few years off to work at a startup or make that video game I’ve always wanted, and be out of the daily grind all together bit before 60. + +Is there anyone that’s been through a similar situation that can share some sage advice? +Leave the politics out of this discussion, we're just talking about the impact on markets. + +The narrative yesterday was that stocks fell on fears of substantially higher capital gains tax on incomes over $1M annually. Certainly, that makes stocks a less attractive investment for high income investors because it hurts their risk/return profile. But, if they're selling stocks to move assets elsewhere, that creates an opportunity for the rest of us, right? + +After all, the expected future free cash flows of the underlying businesses haven't changed, right? So if valuations are unchanged, but prices are lower, that is a buying opportunity. Perhaps one could argue that the lower investment incentive (for high earners) could hurt the economy as a whole? And thus that mechanism is weighing on stocks and actually hurting business valuations? That's a little different narrative than the one we're hearing right now though. + +I realize a 1% drop is pretty trivial, but if the Biden plan moves forward and looks like it will pass (or does pass), we could see more price movement on the same fears. My theoretical question is, will that present a buying opportunity for everyone who WON'T be subject to the higher capital gains rate? +6-12 months after outbreaks, the market typically has a solid record... + +[https://www.ameriprise.com/research-market-insights/market-insights/february-market-trends/#outbreak-table](https://www.ameriprise.com/research-market-insights/market-insights/february-market-trends/#outbreak-table) + +&#x200B; + +So enjoy those discounted share purchases. +***‘A large market correction, should one materialise, would encourage more professional selling that could overwhelm the buy-the-dip retail investor.’*** + +That’s **Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz’s chief economic adviser**, explaining in [an op-ed for the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/e50812f0-51c1-4f8c-9072-21eb0eb8cb9d) how action in the options pits should be taken as a warning by retail investors who have been cashing in on the stock market’s relentless push higher in recent months. + +“The seemingly endless rally… gives the impression that prices are endorsed and supported by the entire professional investment community,” he said. “After all, despite the vocal concerns over valuations having split away from underlying corporate and economic fundamentals, few fund managers have been willing to challenge the market by placing outright shorts. “ + +However, “sophisticated investors” are expressing their cautious views with the use of derivatives, and El-Erian says the mom-and-pop types should take note. + +“It is hard to overstate the extent of today’s risk-taking in U.S. financial markets,” he wrote, pointing to the explosive moves in a small number of high-flyers, such as Apple [**AAPL,** **+3.98%**](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AAPL?mod=MW_story_quote), Tesla [**TSLA,** **-4.67%**](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/TSLA?mod=MW_story_quote) and Amazon [**AMZN,** **+1.39%**](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AMZN?mod=MW_story_quote). + +“Much of this could be seen as market deepening were it not for one troubling fact: corporate and economic fundamentals have yet to reflect a sustained and convincing recovery from COVID-related damage,” he said. The rebound in consumption is slowing, initial jobless claims are back to the 1 million level for a second straight week, bankruptcies are rising, and, according to El-Erian, it’s looking like these short-term disruptions are about to become long-term scars. + +“Rather than a well-thought-out bet on the future, stocks reflect many investors’ resolute faith in a consistently favourable and predictable liquidity environment,” he wrote. “It is a backdrop anchored by reliable stimulus from central banks.” + +On the surface, the same can pretty much be said for what we’re seeing in the derivatives market, but there’s more to it than just that. + +“The fear of missing out on an unceasing equity rally has increasingly been expressed through call options,” El-Erian said. “Those who would normally short the market on concerns of excessive valuations appear to have no desire to be steamrollered once again by favourable liquidity and the strong ‘buy-the-dip’ conditioning that comes with that.” + +He pointed out that buying call options limits risk and gives traders the ability to take strategic shots at capturing rallies. At the same time, the smart money is hedging bets with downside “tail protection” to guard against the inevitable sharp declines. That’s why we’re seeing the VIX volatility gauge [**VIX,** **-1.09%**](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/VIX?mod=MW_story_quote) decouple from equities, another sign, according to El-Erian, that retail investors are particularly vulnerable when the sellers take the upper hand. + +Read More: [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pros-are-getting-ready-for-a-market-crash-retail-investors-not-so-much-top-economist-warns-11598970447](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pros-are-getting-ready-for-a-market-crash-retail-investors-not-so-much-top-economist-warns-11598970447) +I just passed on investing in a really interesting startup. The idea is simple: a chrome extension that replaces occasional words with a foreign language equivalent. This helps you learn a language. You can read reddit and learn Japanese at the same time! It's free, and if you subscribe you get added features. + +Reviewing their deck they do a good job of hiding actual revenues. They emphasize projections and downplay results. The best I can tease out of it is that they maybe had $10k in revenues last year. That's really an approximate guess. Maybe more, but definitely not $100k. + +They are raising money now at a pre-money valuation of **$100 million** for their Series A. + +Now, I don't run a big venture capital fund. And apparently they have some big venture capital funds who are willing to buy in at that valuation. So, maybe my opinion doesn't matter. + +But who would take a job there now? + +You take a job like that hoping to hit your fatfire number ($10-$20 million) if everything goes right in 5 years. Most of the time, not everything goes right and you have to pull the plug and try again. + +In this case, it seems like even if everything goes perfect, the best you could hope for in 5-10 years is an IPO at $1-2 billion. After dilution in a few rounds, a high level employee hired after the Series A is only going to walk away with $1-2 million. It's not worth it. It's like buying a lotto ticket where the prize is only $10k, who cares. + +My point is for founders: high valuations early on might make you look wealthy on paper, but it's not good for the company. +I've been looking for a duplex for a little over a year. I haven't had any luck lining anything up yet. There's currently only 14 duplexes available within a 50-60 mile radius of my city. None of them are desirable to me due to being in bad neighborhoods. Half of them aren't even in liveable condition for 220k+. I'm wondering if I should quit on the whole duplex house hack idea and just buy a 100-180k single family house and get a roommate?. +I asked her to get a new roommate (she wants to stay) and the new roommate needs to place an additional $800 for deposit (initial deposit was 1500). I also told them that I won't release the initial deposit until girlfriend fully moves out. + +Am I being unreasonable? girlfriend is complaining that her new roommate has to pay 800 in deposit and boyfriend wants part of his deposit back ASAP + +New roommate has low income but manageable, but 3 collection claims + +TIA! +I have a question about the JobKeeper miscalculation that came out last week. + +I followed [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/gocqd4/jobkeeper_now_estimated_to_cost_taxpayer_only_70b/) thread last week, and something doesn't add up to me, but it's probably because I am missing a key piece of information. + +Chronologically, this is how I remember events. + +1. COVID-19 shutdown begins +2. Gov't begins formulating a fast stimulus response, estimating how many people will require what (monatary) amount of support. Based on whatever many and vast sources of information they have (ABS, ATO, etc). +3. Gov't announces $130B JobKeeper based on those assumptions and estimations made in step 2. +4. Employers apply for JobKeeper. Some incorrectly entering data (dollars, instead of individuals). +5. A check is done, and it is discovered that not as many people will claim JobKeeper as initially estimated. Now it is only $70b +6. Blame for overestimation is placed on errors made during step 4. + +Now, I understand that the government may have significantly miscalculated the JobKeeper uptake rate, or whatever, it was done as quickly as possible, of course there are going to be some miscalculations, even if they are huge (whether this is right/wrong is a separate discussion) +But, I don't see how you can blame a decision made in step 2, on a bungle in step 4. + +What am I missing here? Or is the reduction in uptake (vs. estimate) and the incorrect entry of data being conflated, when they are two separate issues? +I have a working credit card but it's a largely cash society (Japan) and I just tried getting a cash advance on it with no luck. I can put the correct debit card on Google Pay, and use it digitally, but I can't use that at ATMs. I don't yet have a working phone so I was going to call the bank after I got a SIM card, but I am pretty sure they're gonna tell me I'm SOL. Is getting someone to mail me the correct card the best solution? Is there some other big adult way of getting cash? + +I have a short term emergency solution, borrowing cash from a friend, but will need it on my own sooner rather than later. + +Edit: thank you guys for the input. Going to call my bank when I'm able to again and ask if they can priority ship me a replacement overseas, if that doesn't work I'll see about getting a family member to global express ship it to me, and if THAT doesn't work I'll see what I can do about cash advance on my credit card. Three contingencies! + +Edit 2: I finally was able to get my phone working and was able to call Schwab, they are able to mail me a new debit card to Japan, priority! Thank you for all the comments and reassurances, I wasn't expecting a ton when I panic posted to Reddit. Pickle solved! +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I'm 27 years old. Savings account at local bank pays 0.0001% interest rate(or some shit). + +Why am I keeping thousands of dollars JUST SITTING? I just pulled a Michael Saylor and converted the entire thing to bitcoin. Somehow I feel a little bit of relief knowing that my money is 100% safe from identity theft or my physical wallet being stolen. + +Just sold my 401K of $4,000 into BTC. Over an entire 1 year period, that 401K only grew $1000. Bitcoin more than doubled that. + +I don't even care that some older folks I know thought it was stupid. I am young enough that even if this all goes to zero, I can still pay my bills, and have plenty of time to catch up to build retirement fund. + +Fuck it. I'm all in. + +Literally. +What's the right course of action? I only found out recently that someone has been using my ssn to make payments. My credit score right now is about 700 due to this person. + +Edit: I have yet to open a credit card and actually discovered after getting denied from a credit card. This looks like synthetic fraud and I'm going to go ahead and lock my accounts +I own a large amount of land in a area considered rural that it is about 30-40 minutes from a major US city. When I say rural I mean no grocery stores, gas stations, schools. My goal would be to turn this town into a commuter city for said major city. It has been tried before but the crash of 08 put a stop to it. I am also in partnership with the group that owns the most land in the entire county which includes this town. My thought process is that bringing a school there is what Im missing to entice families to move there. Just wanted to see how anyone would go about this? Would you petition for or build a school then begin developing commercial and residential spaces or vice versa? +Curious to see what peoples greatest investment in the latest decade has been? + +Could also be a lesson or behavior but i'm more interested in hearing in investments! +**Listen up,** + +put down your crayons and stop gambling with your allowance. Today we received the tragic news that **Shinzo Abe died after being shot.** So shut up for a couple minutes and pay some respect to this decent gentleman. Just like you, he was a man of the markets. + +https://preview.redd.it/zugyk3t6jca91.png?width=1695&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b86918f4feb4ff77d3256ca914312dbbcb7f208 + +Shinzo was delivered like we all are, as a tiny, rather clueless package. **Look at his proud parents.** + +[The concerned baby always goes into politics](https://preview.redd.it/72paw018jca91.png?width=1832&format=png&auto=webp&s=994526a103fd08aeca0490f689fb5290d7550de7) + +the thing that Shinzo will probably be most remembered for is his **comprehensive monetary policy that was a relative success and helped lift Japan from a viscous deflationary cycle** that had a grip on the country since the 90's. The whole package is an international brand now called **"Abeonomics".** Millions of traders worldwide have benefited from this policy. Japanese stock did not really become home-runs but it allowed something called the JPY/USD carry trade. Which was milked for years from anyone with some FX chops and an IB account. + +[Look kids, its not rocket science. Build things and sell them.](https://preview.redd.it/0se4yjj9jca91.png?width=1579&format=png&auto=webp&s=cec945c17f3065ba31fbccd48159580b66288139) + +While the american markets flourished after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Japan was treading water and suffered a shrinking economy in combination with worrisome demographic decline. To fix this, he devised the so called **"3 Arrows" strategy.** Google it, it's interesting. The basic idea was to stimulate the economy, get the banks printing again while being fiscally responsible. + +[Back in the ring after the 80's](https://preview.redd.it/xnpunkrbjca91.png?width=1099&format=png&auto=webp&s=93b7ddb75bbb9b0afe5b73d4844d053cf6775050) + +Apart from his economic successes, Abe was also charismatic leader who brought the Olympics, a stronger participation of Japan in the international community, founding of the "Quad" (Asia's mini-Nato) + +[Me, winning the Olympics](https://preview.redd.it/df5gqlrcjca91.png?width=1667&format=png&auto=webp&s=da98dcb22b13cbe4ac7452cfa735745d8be003ce) + +[The plot to attack the ISS was never carried out.](https://preview.redd.it/zuiuhdnejca91.png?width=2022&format=png&auto=webp&s=e419dda02e1bf60b16c424271e2800a37b21bf26) + +[Say my name.](https://preview.redd.it/8r1ok9agjca91.png?width=1241&format=png&auto=webp&s=abab68d630d5b3da0db4dde80ea8d9a033576f02) + +Like many leaders he was also a good buddy of former president Trump. Watch them here, feeding Koi's together. + +[Science learns from nature](https://preview.redd.it/gof2rlzgjca91.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b19cb04bf4dd01f4c53959c28c481e65ee0ed5a) + +So while his legacy is not without controversy, **we should pay our last respects to Mr. Abe** as a man of the markets. Don't forget the Japanese central bank holds about 20% of the stock market over there. **That's what I call a YOLO.** + +As a bonus, let me tell you a secret. **In Japan, gains are red and losses are green.** You are welcome. + +[In Japan, gains are red and losses are green.](https://preview.redd.it/bu98p0bijca91.png?width=1589&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b26ec75fd8bc5602efb0880e761b4e3905c0c22) + +You can now carry on with watching your SPY puts expire worthless for the weekend. + +&#x200B; + +**Rest in Peace Mr. Abe.** + +**Sincerely,** +Regulators are now allowing AMCs to invest in international stocks again, but with a caveat. They haven't raised the limits directly. AMCs can, however, take advantage of falling markets to invest overseas to the extent of their international AUM as of Feb 1, 2022. + +https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/mutual-funds/amcs-can-invest-overseas-to-the-extent-of-their-international-aum-as-of-feb-1-2022-report-8712221.html +Many on this sub recommend Zerodha/Upstox/Samco for trading because of the flat fee structure & for most people, it works. + +However, full service brokers like Motial Oswal, Kotak Securities, HDFC Securities etc also play a large role. And if you are **smart,** you can end up using them to the fullest at a minimal addition in your broking costs. + +**The Traditional Brokers/Full Service Brokers** + +Full Service Brokers (FSB) are the plain HDFC/Edelweiss types that charge a percentage fee on the value of the transaction. They have lots of toys ( and people) to work and churn out reports and so on. Of course, they have their own fundamental and technical analysts and give out "calls" too. + +Here is the fun part, FSB's are not caring much for the retail part of the business. **They are all competing for a very very large institutional and HNI pool.** + +Say you are ABC mutual fund with some 10,000 Crores in AUM. You have to buy 400 Crore worth of HDFC Bank. Now there is enough volume for HDFC Bank, sadly it is difficult for Zerodha to execute it. + +One there are maximum order limits per order. Second of course is that if you punch in an order of 4 Crore in one go, you may end up pulling the cost of purchase by a few percentage points if you use a market order and you may never get a fill say in case of a limit order with hidden quantities. Do this over a hundred times and you end up inflating your costs to a large extent. + +So what you do is call your friendly neighbourhood FSB and the broker in turns call other brokers. They talk and come to know that your friend Ram at Reliance is selling 80 Crore worth of HDFC Bank, Laxman at SBI is interested in selling some 70 Crore worth of HDFC Bank, someone at Credit Suisse is up to sell you 100 Crore too. These guys too **might want to sell at a decent price.** So now you have 250 Crore worth of HDFC Bank and all of this in bulk/block deals. On the next day, your FSB finds a Akbar of ABCAP & Anthony at Axis Mutual Fund who also wish to unload 50 Crores of HDFC Bank each. So there you are with Rs.350 Crore of HDFC Bank, all of them at near market rates. Now FSB also finds a HNI who has some 40 Crore of HDFC Bank. Voila! Only 10 Crore worth of HDFC Bank left to purchase! And that can be comparatively easily done. + +&#x200B; + +Now say you quit the Mutual Fund AMC business, tired of the pressure and end up managing only your own funds. You are worth 100 Crore. One fine day, you wish to allocate 4% of your portfolio to ChotaMota Midcap Ltd (CMML). Sadly, the average volume for CMML is around 1 Crore. Now what? Buy thru Zerodha? I recommend against it. You call up FSB again. He arranges block deals again, though makes a few thousand in the process. + +&#x200B; + +FSB also helps you lend shares, making you a small income, he also gets you leverage against shares so that you can trade in derivatives and so on. + +&#x200B; + +FSB also invites you to some good parties, sends you some nicely formatted PDF files, that if not anything else are fun to read. He also gives you chit chat on everyone. And he also gets you invites to Con Calls, management meets, PMS fund manager talks and everything else. + +&#x200B; + +**For anyone north of some 50 Crore, a few lakh in brokerage is not a bother.** + +&#x200B; + +**The Discount Broker Side** + +&#x200B; + +For people who trade highly liquid counters like say NIFTY, Bank NIFTY and so on, these guys are a god send. No fees for delivery, a simple P&L + Back office and everything else. And you can do it by mobile app. But for large volumes, you may face issues... + +&#x200B; + +**The Smart Bit** *(Edit 2)* + +You can negotiate with 1 full service broker, say HDFC or Edelweiss or Motilal Oswal. They can knock down rates to around .05% on delivery, which for a Rs.1 Lakh trade comes to Rs.50. For those paying 20, it maybe a lot, but you do get top grade software, a RM who can get you reports and attend your calls. The flip side is he/she will try and sell you stuff. You need to avoid it. But if you have a good RM and have a good relation with them, they serve small accounts well, by research reports, leverage, late payment and gossip. + +&#x200B; + +Inspired by another thread on this [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/c1wdnn/best_private_banking_option/ergqqd1). + +&#x200B; + +*P.S: All examples here are for illustration.* + +&#x200B; + +Edit: + +Bulk Deal: A **bulk deal** is a trade where total quantity of shares bought or sold is more than 0.5% of the number of shares of a listed company. + +Block Deal: It is a transaction of a minimum quantity of 500,000 shares or a minimum value of Rs 5 crore between two parties, wherein they agree to buy or sell shares at an agreed price among themselves. + +Here is an example of Shriram Transport Finance: [https://www.motilaloswal.com/markets/stock-market-live/recent-bulk-deals.aspx](https://www.motilaloswal.com/markets/stock-market-live/recent-bulk-deals.aspx) (Head to Page 4 & 5). + +&#x200B; + +Edit 3: + +Someone asked me if I am associated with FSBs and advised me to disclose it. I have friends across the broking industry. I know people from both FSB's and discount brokers at pretty senior management levels. Some friends and some acquaintances. + +Am I a broker? **NO**. + +Do I care if you choose a DB over a FSB? Or do I care if you choose HDFC Sec over Edel? Or Samco over Zerodha? **NO**. + +&#x200B; + +I am writing this simply because I notice misconceptions about broking over the sub and also I have time to spare.. +When someone asks "How many months of expenses should I keep in my efund" the top 3 answers are "3-6 months", "6-12 months", or "it depends". The discussion ends there normally, but if it continues people normally talk about how if you have a family you might need more, or if your job is niche you might need more, or whatever. + +But almost never do I see people chiming in with stories of how their efund came in clutch or failed them. I think that is perhaps the most important thing. How many people cut the fund down to 3 months and ended up in a bad situation due to sudden expenses or job loss. You would expect if the 6-12 month people are right then there would be a bunch of horror stories from the 3-6 month people. So please share your experience. +Our interest rate is insanely low (2,375!) and I want to keep our house. The ex is offering to keep her name on and I’ll make the payments. Thoughts? + +To me, the only risk is if she somehow gets deep into debt, then her creditors could come after the house. I suppose she could also gum up any sale if and when I decide to move. Am I missing anything else? +Long story short… I was unemployed 2 years ago and felt like I was getting no where in life, my girlfriend had just given birth and i had around £15 in my bank. + +I had been applying for apprenticeships since i was 16 and had no luck with any until i hit 20, finally got an apprenticeship which i have now completed and i am earning £28k a year, I have read a couple of the recommended personal finance books and they helped change my outlook on things. + +I am now 22, I have a 2 year old son, £6000 in a S+S isa and £6000 in premium bonds and we have just bought our first house! + +I have just bumped my monthly payment to £500 a month to the S+S isa and am putting £40 a week into my workplace stocks. + +To be honest i’m not sure why i’ve posted this, 2 years ago i came across this forum and i honestly had nothing to my name and my girlfriend was about to give birth. I worked hard and saved hard and i feel like i am finally getting somewhere with my life. + +Thanks to this forum and everyone who contributes to it, you have changed my life. +So I got a very nice email this morning from my Boss. Whilst we're a small company, they've decided to give every employee a £1k cost of living payment with October's pay. + +My question is this, will this be taxed at the usual rate? So that I'll recieve £600-700 of the £1k. + +The other question is this, my finance are in a good place and we are set for the winter (just), so I'd like to place this extra money in a secure place where it can be accessed if needed, where is best to do this? I have a Monzo account, so could place it in one of their ISA's, or just leave it in another current account so I'm not tempted to buy something. + +Currently earning £26k and I have a Plan 2 student loan + +Thanks +So if I was a scumbag HF who wanted to engineer a fake squeeze to shake off paper hands, I'd first want to try it on a not as threatening stock, like AMC, because in case it goes wrong, it doesn't trigger a MOASS, but just a SS. + +So what happened today? They let the gas pedal off of shorting for a bit. The price does it's thing once it's free from manipulation, it goes up. Notice it goes up smoothly, no sharp spikes that would have indicated covering. Then, at a critical point that balances giving people enough of a reason to sell (those who got in at $9-10 would have 3x profits) but not high enough for Marge to come calling, the HFs unleash their hoard and short the shit out of AMC, which you see what happened at 2 pm EST. If you look at the OBV it hardly even moved, and it took 350k in volume to bring it down $3 (about 10% drop) in the span of 4 mins. I think the HFs expect everyone to take their profits and run, but AMC HODLRs have shown that they were able to diamond hand well, from the OBV. + +At this point, the HFs are like, shit they're not selling, what do we do? Right before power hour, they try that shit one more time, and short it again, another 10% dip in just 2 mins, but again, no one sold. + +So at the end of the day, the little fake squeeze experiment the HFs did failed horribly and they ended up with AMC up 35.58% on the day, higher than it ever went before, even in January. + +So if the HFs were smart, they'd realize that if they try that with GME, it'll probably be the same thing. If they let the stock run up to around January highs, or a little higher, giving everyone who got in at around $150 approx 3x profit, and then short it 10% in 2 minutes, what will happen? Apes will diamond hand GME even harder. GME apes have more DD and have better numbers, we HODL not just for any old short squeeze, but the mother of all short squeezes. + +So either the HFs will not try it because they don't wanna risk getting margin called if the fake squeeze gets out of control, or they'll try it but with enough ammo and firepower in a hail mary attempt to drive the price down 30-50%, like what we saw in March. But again, I personally don't see why they would, because we already have history that shows apes holding through a 50% dip, so another 50% dip won't do anything at all. + +Anyway that's just my take on the GME short squeeze theory, feel free to do whatever you want with me thinking out loud here. + +***EDIT:*** Sorry, forgot to mention another big reason why they'd want to attempt this, and it's what we've been saying since forever. AMC is a distraction, and HFs think if they can cause a fake squeeze for AMC, it'll make GME apes fomo and sell GME for AMC. LOL like that's gonna work. I don't want my money in a recovery play. Sure it will squeeze due to short interest, but I don't think I've read any DD that can show retail owning the float multiple times over, which is the situation gme is in. You need that for moass. If you don't, you'll just get a regular ss. Lastly why is all of mainstream media and all the finance youtubers like Zip Trader only focusing on amc and not so much as mention gme? Think! Gme came first from DFV. He's the one who woke the world up to what a short squeeze was. Where did amc come from? Not DFV. Why would suddenly wsb focus on BB and NOK and NAKD and KOSS and BBBY AND AMC as well as gme back in Jan? Why would someone seek out and focus on other short squeeze opportunities when we already have one, gme, with great DD from DFV? + +I want my money to be stroked by papa Cohen's delicious moist hands as his penis steers the GME rocketship to Andromeda, truly transforming this once brick and mortar store into THE gaming omnichannel hub that all gamers will come to for all things gaming, not to mention creating a fucking market out of no where, the market of used digital game selling / trading. + +***EDIT 2:*** Though I may seem harsh on AMC, the only thing I don't want happening is for people to sell GME for AMC. If people already have AMC, then that's fine. If you choose to sell AMC now and buy GME, great. If AMC squeezes first and you can take that profit and buy GME, great. BUT, some people are under the impression that somehow AMC can squeeze as high as GME, or even higher. I believe that is false and anyone who is saying so truly is an anti-GME shill. Why? No DD that AMC apes own the float multiple times over. For GME, it's ridiculous how much more times the float we own. Just Fidelity users who switched from Robinhood alone is 8 million, and if they each have 5 GME shares average, that's almost twice the float. So I don't want someone to spend their hard earned dollars investing in AMC thinking it's gonna be MOASS, cuz there's only 1 MOASS, and that's GME. Always has been, always will be. + +&#x200B; + +***EDIT3:*** AMC MIGHT be used as a pump and dump to paint all memestocks as a pump and dump, including GME. +MSM - "HURR DURR AMC was pumped and dumped by retailers, look how many bagholders there are! We can't let this happen again to retail investors, let's just shut it all down to protect retail investors! Let's shut down GME as well and regulate it to prevent it from spiking up and then come crashing down again like AMC did!" + +Proof is in the pudding: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmnfby/apes\_under\_attack\_how\_hedge\_funds\_and\_banks\_are/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmnfby/apes_under_attack_how_hedge_funds_and_banks_are/) +Prior to the current economic situation I used to dry clothes in a small room with the heating on and a dehumidifier. The gas costs were a lot cheaper, of course, but the dehumidifier was always energy intensive at around 500w/hr. Now with my electricity coming in at 30p/kWh and likely to rise alongside gas prices in October, this cannot be the best way to dry the family's clothes. + +So what should people do? I'm thinking my washer dryer off-peak (00:30 - 04:30 on my current tariff) would be good? I know you can buy heated clothes dryers but I think they're pretty electricity hungry? We have a 16 month toddler in reusable nappies so we have to do a wash at least once every two days...just feels like this basic chore is going to start stacking up on terms of cost. + +What are others planning? I know this might be down the list vs. paying for food or deciding to put the heating on but everyone needs to do laundry. +Hey experts, + +Are there any battery related mutual funds in India? I have checked but couldn't find anything. + +&#x200B; + +Are there options other than direct stocks to invest in companies building batteries in India like Exide, Amara Raja, etc.? +# 0. Preface + +I'm not a financial advisor. <Insert witty comment here before posting>. + +Speculative post? **OR REAL SHIT**? I'm pretty hyped about April 16th being a doomsday clock for the hedgies, since that's the time they started working the night shift. "Give it up for day 15!" as Mr. Krabs would say. + +Do you like dates? **I like dates.** I'd be happy to take you on one. Just ask. 😉 + +I would like apes to pick at this, because I feel like we're **really close** to finding the secret sauce to the price movements and predicting the next surge (maybe even MOASS ignition). Is it T+21? Is it T+35? Both? I've got some charts for you to take a peek at and help discuss! + +Shoutout to the big brain apes lately who started to bring traction to the FTDs again. I'd love to get all of your guys input and any other apes I've missed or who want to join in: + +/u/juventinn1897 + +/u/Suspicious-Singer243 + +/u/Horror_Fishing_2523 + +[/u/HomeDepotHank69](https://www.reddit.com/u/HomeDepotHank69/) + +Let's DRAGON BALL FUSION this! + +[Idea courtesy of \/u\/435f43f534](https://preview.redd.it/ch9tiqqwwsz61.png?width=1442&format=png&auto=webp&s=51e2817ea22f633f88092b6a5d2d04653c3712e0) + +# 1. How to Determine T+35 and T+21 + +Before we move forward, I think it's important to talk about T+35 and T+21. I've made the mistake of counting T+0 from option expiration, which I don't believe is right. The clock actually starts ticking on the Monday following options expiration. So, big whoops on my behalf. + +Quoting from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ml3exp/the_foass_speculation_yeah_foass/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) describing different T+N settlements: + +>**It is not until T+35 (calendar days) when a clearing agency enters into a forced covering position.** + +Ah, interesting. So after T+35 calendar days, the clearing agency is forced to start delivering. + +And if I recall correctly, T+21 derives from brokers having a limit of T+16, but a Market Maker gets an additional +5 days, which results in T+16+5 = T+21. So, Market Makers will be forced to deliver after T+21. + +Let's walk through an example of T+35: + +1. April 16 Options Expiration. T+35 clock starts the following Monday, April 19th, as T+0. +2. Each **calendar day** following is +1, not including Holidays. This gives us: + +|April 16th Options Expiration|| +|:-|:-| +|Date|T+N| +|April 19th|T+0| +|April 20th|T+1| +|April 21st|T+2| +|...|| +|April 26th|T+7| +|...|| +|May 21st|T+32| +|**May 24th**|**T+35**| + +&#x200B; + +Cool beans. Let's walk through an example of T+21: + +1. April 16 Options Expiration. T+21 clock starts the following Monday, April 19th, as T+0. +2. Each **business day** following is +1, not including Holidays. This gives us: + +|April 16th Options Expiration|| +|:-|:-| +|Date|T+N| +|April 19th|T+0| +|April 20th|T+1| +|April 21st|T+2| +|...|| +|April 26th|T+5| +|...|| +|May 17th|T+20| +|**May 18th**|**T+21**| + +So depending on if the Market Maker or the Clearing House is forced to deliver for April 16th options, if they are significant, then we're looking at one of two possibilities here: + +1. Market Maker delivers on T+21, May 18th +2. Clearing House delivers on T+35, May 24th + +# 2. Support for April 16 T+21 Theory + +/u/juventinn1897's post is awesome. Take a look. It got my Pomeranian senses tingling again, so I took a look at the charts again once I looked at their findings a bit more: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ne3ra6/t21\_from\_put\_expiry\_dates\_could\_be\_key\_to\_the\_ftd/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ne3ra6/t21_from_put_expiry_dates_could_be_key_to_the_ftd/) + +/u/juventinn1897's theory is that we have had T+21 links to January 22 and February 5th, resulting in the February 24th and March 10th bursts due to large amounts of PUT OI increasing since the middle of January. Remember, we don't count holidays. So it all lines up perfectly when you ignore February 15th (Washington's Birthday): + +|January 22nd Options Expiration|| +|:-|:-| +|Date|T+N| +|January 25th|T+0| +|January 26th|T+1| +|January 27th|T+2| +|<Ignore Feb 15>|| +|February 16th|T+15| +|...|| +|February 22nd|T+19| +|**February 24th**|**T+21**| + +&#x200B; + +|February 5th Options Expiration|| +|:-|:-| +|Date|T+N| +|February 8th|T+0| +|February 9th|T+1| +|February 10th|T+2| +|<Ignore Feb 15>|| +|February 16th|T+5| +|...|| +|March 8th|T+19| +|**March 10th**|**T+21**| + +With that relationship established, T+21 from April 16th truly points to tomorrow, May 18th, because we need to start T+0 from the Monday following the option expiration. May the force be with you, prophet /u/juventinn1897! I sure as hell would like tendies tomorrow! + +# 3. What if it's Actually a Combination of T+35 and T+21? The Missing Link? + +**Now... with that being said, I'd like to throw a curve ball at you. Instead of T+21, perhaps it starts with T+35 from major options dates and then it triggers an ever-looping T+21 cycle from those initial options dates:** + +1. The option expires and then T+35 calendar days later the Clearing House starts to deliver. + 1. Clearing House -> Market Maker delivery complete +2. Once the Clearing House delivers on T+35, the Market Maker gets the delivery and enters a T+21 cycle of kicking the can down the road because they don't want to deliver to retail. Price suppression baby! + 1. Market Maker -> Retail/Institution delivery cancelled! + +**Theory? The Clearing House delivers to the MMs. The Clearing House is out of the picture now. No more T+35. It's all on the MMs to complete the delivery to retail (or institutions). The MM (Citadel) does not want to deliver, because fuck that! The price will skyrocket! So, they suppress the delivery and continuously can-kick in an infinite T+21. This is an infinite T+21 loop because the MMs are obligated by T+21. Hey! It's FTD squeeze theory! I've come full circle!** + +In an actual example, let's look at January 15: + +1. January 15 options expire. T+35, February 24th, Clearing House delivers to Citadel. +2. Citadel caps the delivery to not let the price run wild. Nuh-uh retail! You're not getting deliveries! +3. Citadel kicks January 15th deliveries further down the road T+21 more days. +4. T+21 March 25th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more because they are obligated on T+21 as a Market Maker. +5. T+21 April 26th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more. +6. Repeats indefinitely until all of January 15th options deliveries are satisfied, or DTC-005 pulls the plug. + +Or take a look at February 5th: + +1. February 5th options expire. T+35, March 15th, Clearing House delivers to Citadel. +2. Citadel caps the delivery to not let the price run wild. +3. Citadel kicks February 5th deliveries further down the road T+21 more days. +4. T+21 April 14th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more because they are obligated on T+21 as a Market Maker. +5. T+21 May 13th arrives and Citadel has to act quick to kick the can T+21 once more. +6. Repeats indefinitely until all of February 5th options deliveries are satisfied, or DTC-005 pulls the plug. + +Ew. I don't like text. I like visuals. And I'm sure you guys do, too. It just helps so much more. Don't worry - I got you! We'll plot the January 15th and February 5th examples on a chart! + +Take a look at this chart of GME. Purple boxes are indicating T+35. Green boxes are indicating T+21. I'd love if someone had data to back up February 5th, or if that's just a red herring. Still, T+35 and then T+21 loop lines up perfectly with February 5th options date when you take into account holidays. + +[Figure 1: GME T+21 and T+35 Cycles](https://preview.redd.it/fnj6sd2srsz61.png?width=1427&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7731b7e3aaacee2dcdaff9e46bdc767c0a90f9f) + +Huh? March 15th didn't have a surge! Yes, you are correct. It had a biiiig surge down though. Now take a look at our friend AMC. I've plotted **THE SAME EXACT T+35 AND T+21 CYCLES**. Notice how similar AMC is? How its following the same spikes? Notice anything different about March 15 for AMC? AMC went up! I bet you they wasted a lot of ammo on March 15th to avoid GME surging up because it was in the $280s at the time. Danger Zone!! + +[Figure 2: AMC T+21 and T+35 Cycles](https://preview.redd.it/1vzoarafqsz61.png?width=1423&format=png&auto=webp&s=6df4b3db90f5ab0a635444fa6116bdd23ae73142) + +The similarities in these charts is **too much to pass up**. Both AMC and GME are heavily shorted stocks and we need to apply the same analysis to both. AMC seems less suppressed compared to GME - fewer attacks - because it's not as big of a problem as GME. + +Once I saw the surge on March 15 for AMC it started to click that the T+35 initiation followed by T+21 loop is probably happening. + +Again though, February 5th is strange. It's not one of the major option dates that were provided last year. The only major option dates provided in early 2020 were: + +* **Janaury 15, 2021 (Possibly started T+35 and then subsequent T+21 cycle)** +* **April 16, 2021 (Possibly starting another T+35 cycle and subsequent T+21 cycle)** +* **July 16, 2021** +* **January 21, 2022** + +Could be a red herring. Could be that they fucked up thinking GME would have been dead by February 5th T+35 = March 15th. PUT OI and PUT volume skyrocketed during the January runup to absurd amounts (we peaked at 2 million PUT OI = 200 million shares worth). They very well could have chosen February 5th as a date to hide deliveries. This is where I'm hoping I get some help from fellow apes. + +Now once more - this isn't throwing T+21 April 16th theory out just yet! I've plotted it on the charts which signals May 18th as T+21 from April 16th expiration. I just believe that we're probably looking at this T+35 and T+21 relationship instead. Regardless, I'm excited to see what happens tomorrow. + +# 4. TL;DR: + +The FTD loop is most likely based around an initial T+35 from the Clearing House, and then an infinite loop of T+21 by Citadel (Market Maker): + +1. Major option date expires. The Clearing House will deliver to Market Makers after T+35 **calendar days** because the Clearing House is obligated to deliver after T+35. +2. The Clearing House is now out of the picture after T+35 and the Market Maker has the delivery. The Market Maker then has to deliver to retail/institutions. +3. The Market Maker (Citadel) doesn't want to deliver, so they cap the deliveries and kick it down the road. The maximum time Citadel can kick the can down the road before it comes back is T+21 **business days** because Market Makers are obligated to deliver by T+21. +4. Once T+21 arrives, they kick the can some more, and maybe a few deliveries spill out, resulting in the price surges we see every T+21 days. +5. The resulting relationship from major option expirations is T+35 -> T+21 infinite loop +6. You can follow this example with January 15th options expiration. + 1. January 15 T+35 -> February 24th + 2. February 24th T+21 -> March 25th + 3. March 25th T+21 -> April 26th + 4. April 26th T+21 -> May 25th + +&#x200B; + +* April 16th's T+35 delivery from the Clearing House arrives on May 24th and should initiate another T+21 loop if the theory holds. +* January 15th's T+21 loop will hit again on May 25th. +* Combination of #6 and #7 could be a Wombo Combo. + +Cheers! :) +I NEVER thought this would be an issue for me once I hit FI. I remember the first time I read The Shocking Simple Math post ([https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/](https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/01/13/the-shockingly-simple-math-behind-early-retirement/)) and thinking "aha...here's the answer. Just get to 25 x spending!". It felt so far away that I just set out on the path. + +After years of diligent saving, I hit 4%...Then I read the Mad Fientist's post on SWR ([https://www.madfientist.com/safe-withdrawal-rate](https://www.madfientist.com/safe-withdrawal-rate)) and figured, "ok...maybe 3.5% just to be safe. After all, I could live another 60 years!" + +Then I hit 3.5%...I started reading ERN's SWR series and my understanding became more informed and nuanced...and possibly even more fraught with doubts[https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/](https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/) + +Now I'm \~3% SWR as we hit nosebleed valuations during a raging pandemic.And I find myself thinking, no way we don't have a huge crash again. People are being way too optimistic about this vaccine. Even in the best of times, these valuations are bananas. And also, don't I have a duty to work longer to fully pay for my kid's college (as my parents did for me)? And you know what, living in a HCOL area might be cool later in life. Oooh...and a Model Y would be rad. I should replace my old beater before pulling the ripcord. + +Note: I'm fully invested and 80% in stocks, so I'm not market timing or anything. My feelings on current valuations never make me do anything stupid or drastically change my AA. + +Right now I'm guessing many of you are thinking I deserve a good old fashioned face punch, and I probably do, but it's never too early to start mentally preparing for how you'll handle crossing the finish line. There will be no confetti blast or congratulatory interview. Even if you have done the work of thinking about what you want to do after your career and diligently mapped out detailed cash flow for post retirement income. It's sort of like in my early 20's when I met with a financial advisor (before FIRE) and they have you fill out the stupid risk assessment forms. As if you have any idea what that will feel like when the market crashes 60%, and then you go through the GFC and are like..."oh, so this is what risk feels like". + +It really boils down to confidence, personality, and being a raging optimist I think to actually walk away + +EDIT: Whoa...a lot more comments than I was expected. Honestly wasn't looking for advice per se...just writing down some thoughts on what if feels like to experience one more year syndrome as I got closer to FI. This sub is way more active than the Mr. Money Mustache forums, which is where I usually post. + +Regarding the acronym scorn (sorry) + +OMY - one more year +SWR - safe withdrawal rate +ERN - early retirement now blog +HCOL - high cost of living +GFC - great financial crisis. +Asking here as I suspect that there will be knowledge individuals who understand this crisis. + +I thought the Ofgem price cap was there to prevent energy companies making record profits at the expense of consumers being gouged. I also thought that the price cap was going up because energy wholesale costs were rising (so, I appreciate that energy companies can’t buy energy units for £10 and be capped at selling those to us for £8). + +But… energy companies are making record profits. I mean, RECORD. + +So why does the price cap have to go up?! Is it just that we have a legislative mechanism that we can’t control. If energy companies are still making 10s, 100s millions and billions in profits, shouldn’t the price cap remain where it is? +I hear a lot of arguments about the fed simply opening the floodgates to please Wall St and keep the economy rising, but that argument could have been made at any point in history; yet in the past the fed have acted responsibly. + +Surely this reckless inflatory push has something to do with competition between the US and China/Russia? + +Whether its the fact China will overtake it quicker now or a potential conflict with either one. Could it be an experiment in whether having the “global currency” can allow a country to buy growth without insane amounts of inflation? Thoughts? +I'll admit it: I've kept a large sum of my crypto on Robinhood this whole time... until now. To be fair, I had stopped actively buying with them a year ago, but had decided not to sell since they had announced they were developing crypto wallets. So I decided to just hodl until I could transfer out... and that time has finally come! Last night I finally received word that my wallet was ready. **As of this morning the remaining assets I has hodling have been transferred OUT!** + +Screenshot: [https://imgur.com/a/unzF2sS](https://imgur.com/a/unzF2sS) + +**I STRONGLY urge you to do the same if you have not done so already.** It's worth the gas price too ([which is a little lower than normal right now](https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_average_gas_price)). If you've quietly been waiting for your Robinhood crypto wallet, it should come soon. I was around number 55k in line to receive mine. + +*Why transfer out?* If you're not aware, Robinhood restricted trades during the the GameStop/meme-stock mania last year which effectively helped shady hedge funds and hurt regular folk like you and I ([see more about that here](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/investing/robinhood-backlash-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). They were also fined $70M by FINRA over other shady practices, including having "outages" during big market swings between 2018 and 2020 ([check that out here](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/technology/robinhood-fined-misleading-customers.html)). This was especially a frustration last year when Robinhood suddenly suffered "technical difficulties" during the epic Doge runup ([more info here](https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/4/22419159/robinhood-dogecoin-outage-crypto-trading-crash#:~:text=Robinhood%20confirmed%20that%20it%20experienced,the%20beginning%20of%20the%20day)). So then, it's pretty clear that Robinhood's interests are NOT with you. **Why trust them with your assets when they block you from making financial decisions during critical market movements?** + +I'm not the only one in this sub that is alarmed by Robinhood, please see these additional posts and comments from our fellow sub-mates for more information so you can make your own decision: + +* [Robinhood CEO can’t/won’t answer questions](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/lmyhur/for_those_still_on_the_fence_with_robinhood_watch/) +* [Citadels CEO Lied Under Oath about a Collusion with Robinhood](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pw0kgt/leaked_documents_show_that_citadels_ceo_lied/) +* [Robinhood locked the buy button when it suited them](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/lfrslo/reminder_robinhood_blocked_several_stocks_from/) + +TLDR: I finally moved all my crypto off Robinhood now that they enabled my crypto wallet. You should too because they are shady AF. +Resolution Source: [https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm](https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm) + +Answer will resolve to total CPI, NOT core-CPI. + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/x55lkd) + I thought I would share my **stock-picking process**. + +1. I start primarily with the Dividend Champions list +2. I use a program called FastGraphs to get: + 1. The Credit Rating (S&P) of each stock + 2. The Est. ROR (Capital plus Dividend), Factsets + 3. The forecast accuracy by the analysts +3. I give the Credit Rating (e.g BBB) a numeric value based on bankruptcy probability +4. I multiple the Credit Rating x the Forecast Acc. x the Est ROR +5. To get a weighted score to sort on + +I use the resulting list and product to pick my next buy + +[My spreadsheet](https://preview.redd.it/viyixw5jrlh81.png?width=1680&format=png&auto=webp&s=3362da830b5f49bf26d64d1a387ff9bfa54fbc1a) +How much would taxes take out of that? And most dividend stocks offer quarterly returns right, is it 5% total annually just broken up into 4 payments or 5% every quarter? And last thing, how do you get the money? Like say your with TD Ameritrade right, how do you collect your dividend money? + +I know these are all dumb questions i’m 16 and new to the stock market and quite frankly, I have no idea what to google to figure this stuff out. +We are hosting a Ukrainian woman and child. It is not going brilliantly, especially from a financial perspective. I'm starting to get concerned that without our financial help they will never be able to move out and while I do want to see them out and settled, I can't bring myself to make them homeless. The council have been pretty clear that social housing isn't an option, they either find somewhere private, stay with us or become homeless. + +I have been thinking of starting to charge them rent at the limit that the UC housing component will pay, ie at no direct cost to them. I don't think any tax would be due unless we went over £7500. Then in May once they have been in the country for a year and have employment records, bank statements etc, we will give them the accumulated rental income as a gift to pay a deposit and hopefully a couple of months' living expenses, allowing them to move out and rent privately. She is working now so hopefully would be able to pay the bills etc herself after the first couple of months. + +My question is whether this would be seen as fraudulent by the DWP? You could say we are exploiting housing benefit for the purposes of giving it to them directly. I don't want them to face any repercussions. + +Any other suggestions would be much appreciated. +I know there is a lot of hype right now in the market with shit being all over the place. Last year was the first time I found out how to mess around with stock market and sure enough I burnt through $5000. I gave up, but last month I saw Stockjock on twitch randomly and fell in love with the way he does stuff. He's literally become my inspiration and I want to be like that in the future. He's great at answering all the questions and his discord is also very friendly. + +I'm already making good money for my age and have a lot of savings. This time I plan on actually learning day trading before throwing my own money in this, so I can be successful in the market. The best part is my work is in the afternoon, so I get to spend all the time home while the market is open. Is it too unrealistic to dream that in couple of years I can live off of day trading? Any successful day traders here? Anyone doing six figures consistently?(before the meme and covid)?) + +Anyone else trying to become a successful day trader? What are you guys following and reading? Any tips or suggestions are always welcome! I'm also interested in hearing stories! How is day trading going for you? What do you think about the future? + +Looking forward to hearing from you guys! +I have a degiro netherlands account and i feel very nervous buying index funds there. I worry that one day my index funds would disappear because i was buying some weird options or leverage thing that i wasnt aware of. I know dutch but my knowledge is very limited. + +Can i switch it to english? Or somehow make sure that i dont accidentally buy something other than a simple index funds? +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. Please keep ALL conversations contained to Gamestop and related topics. + +**Not enough karma?** Here's a [**quick guide**](https://zapier.com/blog/how-to-get-karma-on-reddit/) on how to get it. + +# [announcements](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/announcements) + +* Make sure to check the Announcements regularly. 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That will come at the hearing following this hearing. + +The 12/9 date will probably not be a thing unless GameStop fails to respond to my original summons. I haven't heard anything regarding that. + +Again, my case is being heard at the Delaware Court of Chancery by Master Selina E. Molina and my case number is 2021-0993-SEM. + +**JASON FUCKING WATER FALL FAQ** + +**Who are you?** + +I am a [100% direct-registered asshole](https://imgur.com/a/i0mKIpf) who quests ongoingly to contact GameStop Investor Relations. + +**Why did you sue GameStop?** + +Because they didn't respond when I asked nicely every day, and after six weeks or so, an alternative modality seemed to be indicated. + +**What information do you want?** + +1) Information contained in the Shareholder Ledger + +2) Information relating to The Cheng Discrepancy + +**What is the Shareholder Ledger?** + +A list of all institutions and individuals holding GME. + +**Do you think the Shareholder Ledger contains evidence that the float is oversold?** + +Maybe, maybe not. Supposing that the float is oversold, the Shareholder Ledger may contain only the identities of registered holders, rather than beneficial holders. In that case, evidence of rehypothecation may not be acquisible by suing GameStop. + +**Will you share the Shareholder Ledger if you get it?** + +I will fight to share whatever I can without compromising shareholders' personal information. + +**What makes you think you can get the Shareholder Ledger by suing for it?** + +Because Delaware law says so, specifically [Delaware Code Title 8 Section 220](https://codes.findlaw.com/de/title-8-corporations/de-code-sect-8-220.html). I have followed the steps for acquiring the Shareholder Ledger specified in paragraphs (b) and (c). + +**What is The Cheng Discrepancy?** + +OK, so you know how [we all voted on 6/9 to install RC and his buddies to the BOD](https://news.gamestop.com/node/18956/html)? There were eight total elections that day. Seven of the elections show a vote total of 55,541,279. The Larry Cheng election, however, shows a vote total of 55,541,280. + +**So what?** + +So the elections should all display the same amount of votes, because it is impossible for someone to have voted in the Larry Cheng election without having been counted as an abstention in the other seven elections. The vote totals from all eight elections should match. That they don't match gives me a credible basis to suspect that mismanagement, wrongdoing, or waste may have occurred with regard to the collection, tabulation, reconciliation, or reporting of the votes.  + +**Credible basis?** + +The credible basis standard means I don't have to prove that wrongdoing occurred, or even show that wrongdoing probably happened or had a good chance of happening. All I have to show is that mismanagement, wrongdoing, or waste MAY HAVE OCCURRED.  + +Onward and upward. + +In the disclaimer, I made a clarifying change in the sentence about beneficial shareholders. + +EDIT: Finally, if you are bored and looking for something to do, Bank of America DD badass u/gfountyyc [has a job for you](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r1iiso/cftc_foia_requesti_need_some_help_my_dudes/). + +*Disclaimer: My name is JASON FUCKING WATER FALL. I'm not subject to an NDA or any kind of equivalent gag order regarding issues within GME's milieu. I haven't received information indicating an unreconciled number of ballots or votes cast in GameStop's 6/9 shareholder election exceeded the number of outstanding shares. I haven't received information indicating GameStop has been legally prevented from taking action projected to cause a systemic market event. I haven't received information indicating that the number of shares held by beneficial GameStop shareholders exceeds the number of outstanding shares. Epstein didn't kill himself and I won't either. I once touched Owen Hart's sweaty bicep as he walked out with Jim Neidhart at a house show. I have never met or knowingly spoken to Ryan Cohen, Matt Furlong, Michael Recupero, Mark Robinson, Tess Halbrooks, Greg Marose, Deep Fucking Value, Ken Griffin, Vlad Tenev, Steven Cohen, Maxine Waters, Elon Musk, Amber Ruffin, PFTCommenter, or Ariana Grande.* +Prices are a factor of inputs, which include wages, and margin. Why is the fed focused solely on wage growth and not on reduced margins/corporate profits? +I did (and do) want to do a PhD but I've had a number of people tell me that my profile isn't suited for one, including a former professor. + +Unfortunately it does seem that way - my profile doesn't have any of the 'features' that are required for admission in a good program. + +Therefore, I think I will be following the non-PhD route - I was wondering how many of you have taken that route and how you're doing right now. Mostly in terms of your job profiles, the kind of work you do everyday, and job satisfaction. +I've recently read these [two](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/08/29/reverse-voxsplaining-drugs-vs-chairs/) [posts](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/09/07/reverse-voxsplaining-brand-name-drugs/) on slate star codex where Scott Alexander argues that drugs prices in America are high due to over regulation. + +I used to think price inelasticity played a major role in high drug costs, but according to him, it isn't the reason why. Even if a good is price inelastic, a company can't get away with charging super high prices for said price inelastic item, because someone would come along and start a business that sells it for less, which leads to the new company getting a lot more customers. + +In healthcare however, there is tons of regulation by the FDA that prevents new companies/start ups from entering the market. Ex: EpiPen. Prices in Europe are low since there are 8 competitors, but there is only one in the USA b/c the FDA would only approve one of those companies to sell an EpiPen. Wouldn't cutting back on regulations and streamlining the approval process solve the drug price problem here while not hurting R&D? + +According to Scott, the deregulation of the market appears to be the better solution to high costs than the government negotiating prices due to the fact that there would be little loss in R&D. I can't tell whether this is accurate or not because I'm not knowledgeable enough to do so, but it seems that the free market could be the best solution to this. + +Is Scott Alexander correct in his assessment, or am I missing something? +Hey y'all I wasn't sure if this was an appropriate thread to post this on or not but I originally graduated with an economics degree back in 2015. I've been working and have found corporate life to be very mundane and am considering seeking out a Masters in Economics as a way to gain meaningful skills for more interesting work. +For those of you who have completed a Masters program, how did it help your career? What are things to look for in a program? Is it a good value in regards to the amount you pay and the type of salary you get from the degree? +I received a lump sum payout on my cover after a stroke I suffered in February. + +The sum covers my mortgage of £110,000 which I have 22 year’s remaining on. Currently in a fixed rate of 2.29% for a further two years. However, I’ve contacted the mortgage provider and they will waive the early repayment charges due to the nature of my payout. + +I’m still in full time employment despite the effects of the stroke and I am 38 years of age. + +My overriding thought is to pay my mortgage off outright as the psychological relief that should give really appeals to me. + +I’m just asking to see if anyone has any experience of a similar situation or offer any thoughts, for or against settling the mortgage. + +I never expected to be in this position so it’s all a lot to take in. Any advice will be most welcome +Don't get me wrong apes I'm all for great news but how can we spend more than a year proving that MSM (that includes 🦊 obviously) is NOT on our side and is spreading FUD like herpes at a college dorm to then just start accepting MSM because we agee or like what they are saying?? + +Either MSM is a trusted source or it's not. + + +🦍💪😎 +I grew up in a conservative household where I was taught "Cash Is King". Now that I've grown up (in my early 40's), I'm realizing this is not the best way to go about things. I always hear "money makes money" but I have obviously not put that to use. + +I'm in my early 40's, married, 2 kids. Here is the breakdown: + +* Personal Accounts + * $1mm in cash + * $450,000 "play money" to trade stocks with + * $1.1mm mortgage with $1.5mm equity + * $200,000 in syndication real estate +* Business Accounts + * $3,100,000 in cash + * most of this is not needed to run the businesses and can be withdrawn to personal accts +* Retirement Account + * $1,100,000 in cash + * $650,000 in VTSAX + * $250,000 in stocks + * $150,000 in a mortgage fund + * $100,000 in life shares + +My income through my companies is around $1.5M annually, pre-tax. I contribute about $400k annually into a defined benefit pension for retirement. + +Clearly, I don't know what I'm doing other than running my businesses. I have some questions about what I can see but I definitely have a lot of blind spots that I would love to see. + +1. Is the $1.1M cash in the retirement account a terrible idea? My plan is to invest it all into VTSAX when there's a correction in the market. Is it better to do that now instead? +2. If I pull out $2.5M from the business and have $3.5M in cash, I don't feel safe putting this in the market because I have to take care of my family's needs, including two little kids in elementary. I don't think I can handle the ups and downs because I don't know how much longer the businesses will provide the income that they do. Is this valid thinking or is that too much cash? Where would this personal money be invested ideally? +3. What am I missing (other than a brain)? +Not in the literal accounting sense, I understand how it is deductable, but what is the motivation/logic behind it? Why shouldnt interest payments be treated as any other expenses? To me it seems that deductability is just another motivator for companies to take on debt they otherwise wouldnt need. +I recently watched Frontline's program [The Card Game](http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/creditcards/) on the credit card industry and it got me thinking. Because of the recession, the current interest rates on treasury bills is practically zero percent. I am getting about 1.5% APR in my ING "high yield" savings account. But then credit card interest rates are going up in a way that especially hurts poor people. I would love if there was a way that I could pool my money with other people to make loans out to people with huge credit card debts and charge half of the interest that the banks are charging. This is similar to the micro-loan idea. + +My question is whether such a service could exist? I imagine that there would need to be some social networking aspect to it: the people loaning the money will need a way to check up on the person they loaned the money to in order to make sure that they don't do something stupid, like buying a new motorcycle. + +I realize that the question is a bit simplistic, but I think that the general question is still valid. +[https://twitter.com/batgrowth/status/1166228879444459521](https://twitter.com/batgrowth/status/1166228879444459521?s=20) + +&#x200B; + +wow! + +\------ tip me with Brave! :) ------- ⤵ +Growing up in a different country, we had the same landlord for 8 years at one point. For nearly all my childhood we had a place we called home, even though we were renting. They only increased the rent once after a few years to make up for inflation, but that was it. + +I now live in Perth and after 4 different houses in 7 years, I now see that I'll never sleep somewhere that feels like home again. + +You find an awesome house, you and your partner love it, you move in. They increase the rent once, twice and they keep doing it until eventually you need to move out because it gets too expensive. + +Wouldn't it make more sense for a landlord to keep their tenants as much as possible if they found great people to take care of their house? + +That investment property crap is quite sickening, I don't know of any other country that treats houses like a collectible. My brother in Italy repainted the bedrooms and drilled holes everywhere. As long as they paint it back white years later and the property is the same as when he first leased it they don't care. + +Here you get in trouble when your wall poster from your favourite band chips the paint when you remove it. +I originally posted this [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/7qwhrr/bitconnect_is_shutting_down_its_lending_and/dssqthw/), and it was suggested that I make a separate text post for it. + +This started as a list of ponzi schemes only, but I've also found some pyramid schemes, (and quite a few that I think are both), so I've added them here as well. The ponzi and pyramid schemes currently around (that I'm aware of) are: + +1. BCC Cash (note that this is different from Bitcoin Cash) +* BCHconnect +* Billion Bit Club +* Binary Coin +* Bit Sequence +* BitAI +* Bitchamps +* Bitclub/clubcoin +* Bitcoin Ascension (pyramid scheme) +* Bitconnect X +* Bitether +* Bitfinite +* Bitfintech +* Bitglare Coin +* Btchash +* Btc-Rush +* Btcwait +* Chrysos +* Coinrium +* Cointeum +* Coinspace +* Dascoin +* Ecomcash +* Eigencoin +* ETHconnect +* Etherbanking +* Exacoin +* Falcon Coin +* Farstcoin +* Ficoin +* Firstcoin +* Forzacoin +* Futurecoin +* FUU Coin +* Gold Reward Token +* Goldgate +* Hedgeconnect +* Hextracoin +* Home Block Coin +* HotCrypto +* Hydrocoin +* Ibiscoin +* iCenter +* Ideacoin +* iFan +* Iotaconnect +* Knox Coin +* Legendcoin +* Lendconnect +* Lendera +* Libra Coin +* Liteconnect +* Loancoin +* Martcoin +* Moneroconnect +* Monetize Coin +* Monyx +* Neoconnect +* Numiv +* Oalend Coin +* Onecoin +* Pagarex +* Purpose/DUBI +* Regalcoin +* Rothscoin +* Secular Coin +* SFICoin +* Steneum +* Stepium (pyramid scheme) +* Swisscoin (pyramid scheme) +* Tenocoin +* TEX Coin +* Thorn Coin +* Ucoin Cash +* Unix Coin +* USI Tech +* WCI +* Western Coin +* XRPconnect + +Defunct ponzi schemes: + +1. Ambis +* Bitcoinly +* Bitconnect +* Bithaul +* Bitlake +* Bitpetite +* Bitsupreme +* Btcbox.cc +* Chain.Group +* Coinreum +* Control Finance +* Cryptodouble +* Davor +* Ethtrade +* Laser Online +* LoopX +* Mavro +* Mecoin +* Metizer +* Microhash +* Paycoin +* Plexcoin +* Thunderbit +* Vixice +* Vone + +Note that the above coins/services are only ones that I think are very likely to be ponzi/pyramid schemes (it's difficult to be 100% sure). There are many other scams out there, but I haven't included them here because many of them are controversial, so deciding with great certainty if some are scams would be much more difficult, and because making this post is already a lot of work. + +**I had a list of people here who were promoting some of the above scams on Youtube, but I've decided to remove it at least temporarily as some users suggested. For now, I'll work on adding to the above lists, then in the next few days I'll probably (at least partially) restore what I've removed along with additions that people posted in this thread. If you really want to see the list of youtubers I had here, send me a PM.** And for those who have sent me a PM that I haven't responded to yet, be patient, I'm taking a break now and I still have messages that I haven't had time to read yet. + +I'd also like to make a special shout out to coinmarketcap.com for advertising Bitconnect and possibly other coins listed above, and I'd like to thank the following Redditors for contributing to these lists: + +/u/808hunna, /u/AceDoja, /u/AllForTheGains, /u/Antranik, /u/arse_nal666, /u/BamboozleVictim, /u/Batman_MD, /u/bluebachcrypto, /u/Calmersky, /u/DemarcoFC, /u/DestroyerOfShitcoins, /u/dvxvdsbsf, /u/EClarkee, /u/Furples, /u/gtfobitches, /u/GuessParryGod, /u/Huuuui, /u/iambinksy, /u/infinityplus0ne, /u/jckwho, /u/Kl4n, /u/KnifeOfPi2, /u/lailide, /u/laminatorius, /u/LordGriffiths, /u/Miqote_Menstruation, /u/mscohe01, /u/normal_rc, /u/nudeinmylivingroom, /u/omegaape, /u/presstab, /u/ptikok, /u/RatToken, /u/Randall_Maller, /u/ripbum, /u/ScroogeMcDuckyPants, /u/Seriously2much, /u/shilch, /u/Sitchu, /u/skotua, /u/slinky_wizard, /u/sToRmRaDe, /u/TheMinero, /u/TheSuspiria, /u/theyork2000, /u/Timbuk220, /u/Too_Trill_To_Fail, /u/tuankiet65, /u/white_knight3, /u/zamli + +More contributions are also welcome! Also, thanks a lot for the tips & gold! + +P.S. Somebody actually got a [Bitconnect tattoo](https://i.imgur.com/O7MbEZc.jpg)! +From my understanding, you can trade as much as you want through TFSA account but there is a threshold for CRA that determines whether they should consider your transactions as business or personal hobby. Just wondering about people's experiences on this topic. + +To add clarity, when you have a huge amount of gains that's when CRA will audit to their benefit. If you're losing, they will not bother for their own interest. +Ok, this is fairly simple. + +You may have seen a pinned post over at ‘bets’ sub talking crap about DRS and GME. + +DON’T FALL FOR IT. + +Aside from the fact it’s rattling cages and the mods are apparently throwing out bans as quickly as they can hand them out, any good faith arguments *may be seen by Reddit admin as BRIGADING.* + +Is this fair? No. Is it worth the risk of getting this sub getting shut down? Also , no. + +Be smart. Don’t give anyone ammo. Be like RC. + +🏴‍☠️ + + +Edit - FOR CLARITY, I am not suggesting you go over and get a ban for lols, quite the opposite in fact. 🤦‍♂️ +We have 3 young kids and want to start saving for them, but also want to start saving for my own retirement. Do I go with a Solo 401k, Traditional IRA, Roth IRA? A 529 for each kid? I’m not sure how much I’d be able to contribute as we are using every penny right now, but I know we need to start soon! + +I (30F) have been self employed for the last 4 years making less than $45k/year through a government contract. I have been using all of my income for expenses (rent, daycare, essentials) since I usually have had little to pay the IRS when they take into account child credits and my husband’s regular job ($56k) where he gets a W2 and good benefits where he maxes out his 401k, HSA, FSA, etc. **edit: he makes a 5% contribution to his 401k for the max employer match. He pays 5k yearly to the FSA, and previously 5k yearly to a pretax childcare spend account. And the biggest expense is actually 12k yearly for medical, dental and vision health insurance. +Much to my shock and surprise, I have been recruited into a very high paying entry level position at the mines. I honestly did not expect to get it. I was made redundant a month ago from a bad, commission only sales job, and have been looking so desperately for work that I signed up to drive for Uber Eats. The job I've gotten is FIFO, one week on, one week off. I have completely depleted my savings at this point and my car is on it's last legs. What are my best steps going forward? This is more than double what I've ever earnt in my life. +Newly constructed Townhome, that I am looking as an investment property to be leased out, is in a growing part of DFW. Local real estate is hot, so there is always the risk of buying at peak, but I see a lot of retail and office space being created, so post covid, I see huge potential. + +Looking at the numbers, townhouse is \~$430k, 25% down and with a 8% vacancy, all costs included would be $2600. Current rent estimate for comparable new leased apartment is $3500, so I am expecting at least $3200 in rent. [Here](https://imgur.com/a/X69ShHk) is the calculation. It's barely cash flow positive for the year at \~$2k, but I have factored in all possible expenses. + +Wife is worried that a) I am buying at the peak, b) rents wont necessarily increase over time if there is a downturn, so my barely cash flow positive property will turn negative, not to mention drop in property prices. + +Would like to know your thoughts. I think I may be experiencing the "fear of missing out" syndrome, so would love to get some unbiased feedback. + +Edit: Forgot to add. Charles Schwab, a Fortune 500 company, moved its SF HQ and has set up shop 1/2 mile away. Other employers in the area are Fidelity and TD Ameritrade. +Hi all - + +Current real estate investor here with 3 properties (1 SFH, 2 triplexes), 2 have a mortgage, 1 is fully paid off. Net cashflow is a little over $4k/month. + +My intention is to keep growing my real estate holdings in the next 10 years. But ultimately I want to get into larger commercial buildings. Maybe even luxury condos. +I'm involved in a a couple commercial deals as an LP. But what steps should I be taking to get to a 10+ unit building? + +Should I look into positioning myself as a future sponsor in these commercial deals? + +Does it make sense to go the "build" route and create an LLC, round up investors, hire a GC, etc.? (I constantly see advice on this sub dissuading people from building: "buy instead," is what they always say.) + +Or if I don't build. Should I just apply my same model (looking for deals, applying the 1%+ rule, rehabbing, forcing appreciation, etc.) but just for a building 10x the size? + +Sorry if this sounds very theoretical. But I'm just wondering how to get from where I am now to where I want to be in 10 years - owning 10+ unit up-scale or mid-market buildings. Maybe even a reduced number of buildings but with more cashflow. +>Edit because some of y’all go ape🦧shit💩 when GME isn’t mentioned every other sentence: + +>**Not financial advice, DRS your GME!** + +>(in fact DRS everything that’s not GME too – don’t let your brokers add your retirement account to the hedge fund sandbox) Now back to your regularly scheduled programming~ + +TL;DR — Ryan Cohen knows Amazon’s business model is corrupt af, he’s using that knowledge to his advantage in his activist investing, and his strategy with GME and BBBY shows this. Ryan Cohen will take down Jeff Bezos/Amazon. Fuck Amazon. Ryan Cohen is my dad. DRS your GME. + +**Body:** + +Ryan Cohen was able to beat Amazon at their own game in dealing pet products – superior product offerings and amazing service all to maximize customer delight. (seriously if you’ve not got pets and haven’t used Chewy, it’s pretty fuckin’ awesome) + +Now RC is doing it again with GME. Maximizing customer delight in the consumer electronics, collectibles, and gaming industries. All this will take another sizeable chunk out of Amazon’s ridiculous market share. + +And now, BBBY. Amazon’s offerings for home goods is incredible… but so is BBBY’s. Securing a loyal customer base with BBBY, improving their online presence, and delighting customers yet again would deal a significant blow to Amazon’s near-monopoly over internet commerce. + +And all this is not to even mention Bezos’ shady business practices, hedgie past (seriously he literally wrote trading algorithms for hedge funds in the past), and the fact that he and Amazon may be the puppet masters behind all that cellar-boxing… I know this is heavily in tin-foil hat territory, but the rise of Amazon coincides with the fall of Sears, Toys’R’Us, etc. Amazon is literally buying old malls - a symbolic🖕to traditional retail, perhaps to secure their place as the go-to destination for purchasing any kind of good. + +And here comes RC – lil’ David with his sling, chucking rocks at the Goliath that is Jeff Bezos/Amazon. But RC knows chess. He knows long term-strategy, and he sure as hell ain’t making his known. He got a feel for how the Goliath operates when he smacked Bezos across the face with Chewy. Now he wants the beast to bleed. +I am appalled ([with two p's](http://shlep.blogspot.com/2010/05/one-of-my-favorite-bloom-county-comics.html)) that my financial accounts seem less secured by 2fa than my gaming accounts -- almost all of which use Google authenticator and some use backup "one time printout" codes. With the exception of Fidelity (note below) all of the 2fa is SMS based -- which is notoriously bad. (< $20 and you can [hijack the SMS stream](https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/15/22332315/sms-redirect-flaw-exploit-text-message-hijacking-hacking) of a given number). + +Why is this? I am ready for a far more secure 2fa. Anyone know of any banks and brokerages that are doing this right? I cannot find one. + +The note about Fidelity: You can opt in to using a Verisign code generating 2fa -- which seems a huge improvement -- but last I checked (and it has been a while) password reset bypassed it. +I use to own cats before being homeless and I was in my storage unit and found cat food. I haven’t eaten in a few days so I desperately ate some. I faint easily and was feeling myself becoming woozy and unsteady. Literally an act of desperation + +It was awful + + +Update: hey I got an overwhelming response. I’m ok and didn’t expect this much attention. I’m ok!! I’m safe and was able to get some canned food and a $4.44 ($4.77 ripoff!) +When investing I am looking for stocks priced below their intrinsic value. Usually, for me these finds are among small and micro cap stocks with very low trading volumes and that are mostly overlooked by analysts/institutional investors. + +Often, when I buy these stocks they have had deep declines in their price. Many of these value stocks have a sudden return to a fair value after some time but then *they become neglected again or the stock price stagnates with the new higher ratios*. At that point, I don't understand why I should continue to hold the stock - it no longer presents value to me. + +Many value investors on this subreddit and elsewhere suggest you should hold a stock forever. For example, they will quote Buffett saying "our favorite holding period is forever". Personally, I think Buffett is more of a large cap quality stock investor - so I'm not sure how applicable this is to more deeply discounted "distressed" stocks. + +What I don't understand is: why would I hold a stock when it has returned to my calculated intrinsic value or its ratios are now quite average (like Buffett suggests)? + +When do you decide to sell (if you do) and what are your criteria and rationale for doing so? +I'm curious other people's strategies for this. Suppose you find a good growing company, fair value 100, you buy in at 80 with a multi year horizon. But with market exuberance it goes to 150. So it's a dilemma, long term prospects are good, but it could take a couple years to grow into this exuberant valuation. + +I've tended to hold through these periods, some remain at lofty levels, others have come back down to reasonable levels. Starting to wonder if selling and deploying capital elsewhere is the right move. + +In short, how overvalued does a stock need to be for you to sell. 50%? 100%? Never if it's a quality company? +https://www.marketwatch.com/story/half-of-young-americans-say-college-isnt-necessary-2019-08-06 + +At 19 years old, Vivek belongs to Generation Z. And while her experience isn’t yet common, Gen Z is becoming more open to doing college differently or not going at all, according to a new study by TD Ameritrade TD-0.35% + +About one in five Gen Z and young millennials say they may choose not to go to college. Many others see a less conventional path through education as a good idea. Over 30% of Gen Z — and 18% of young millennials — said they have considered taking a gap year between high school and college. + +While college attendance has risen from 14.8 million two decades ago, the NCES expects it to remain relatively steady over the next five years. But the $1.5 trillion in student debt has given younger students pause for thought. +Margin Calls happen when a position secured on margin (borrowed money) falls in value low enough compared to the initial purchase price that the position holder needs to either close out the position or put down larger collateral to make sure the money doesn't all disappear. + +What happened with the $9B is **RH was trying to** **secure massive positions on GME** and other stock that were rallying, these stock had extreme volatility because they were raising so fast, **taking out a large position like this requires collateral with the DTCC** so that A) banks are disincentivized from YOLOing their entire fund into a dangerous position, and B) if your bank fails from it it doesn't destroy the global financial market because your collateral should be enough to fix a lot of the damage. The higher the assumed risk the higher the collateral requirement, because the stock was so volatile (huge movements up and or down) the calculation for risk associated made the collateral requirement very very high. Since RH most likely lumps up all their daily purchases and sends them out to the DTCC at the end of the day or week when they sent their purchases and positions. **When the DTCC received their new position said "OK to secure that position you need to hand us $12.6 billion"** upon receiving this news RH (and a bunch of other brokers who probably received similar collateral requirements) turned off the buy button, when the price fell they went back to the DTCC and said "but the price just dropped the volatility isn't so bad any more can we give you $3.6 billion instead?" and the DTCC waived $9 billion off the collateral requirement. + +The important difference is that The DTCC waived the collateral upon OPENING a position, they did not waive a margin call for a short hedge fund with an established position. The shorts are still bleeding, their margin collateral is probably locking up a large % of their portfolio. + +Hedgeis are still fuck. + + +edit: +adding an important comment in another thread by u/Fausterion18 and then shared here by u/jlw993 that in my opinion really sums it up better clearer than I could here: + +>"DTCC deposit requirements is nothing like a margin call or not being able to pay your mortgage. At no point would a broker be forced to buy shares, you have no understanding of the situation at all. +> +>DTCC deposit requirements exist due to counterparty risk. If clients of a broker like say Robinhood buys a lot of stock, Robinhood has to put down a tiny percentage of the value of the stock in case their clients didn't have the money to make good on the transaction. When the share price of what's being bought is more volatile, this deposit amount gets bigger. The GME squeeze took the brokers off guard and they didn't have enough deposited with DTCC to meet the new much higher deposit requirements caused by all the GME buying and volatility. +> +>If DTCC hadn't waived the deposit requirements Robinhood would have needed to either start liquidating client GME positions(yes, **selling** your GME stock, not buying) or halt all trading on their platform until the transactions cleared. The waiver was what allowed people to keep buying. If you wanted the price to pump higher, you should be thanking DTCC for the waiver." + +&#x200B; +(1) For how many years you have been successfully algo trading + +(2) Which year of your career you moved from discretionary to algo + +(3) How much time did it take for you to get profitable first at discretionary/algo + +(4) How much % returns you target per annum + +(5) Educational background + +(6) Reasons you love algo trading over discretionary. + +Looking forward to amazing responses :) +NSCC-2021-002 SHOULD go live on June 21st, next Monday. This is the calls from Marge. The Supplemental Liquidity Deposit Adjustment, i.e. if we don't like your positions give us more money in 1 hour rule. If you can't pay, then fuck you, get liquidated. The teeth of NSCC-2021-801. + +Expect the worst today apes. The price is wrong! + +I think the market's not likely to have EVER seen volatility like what is coming before, as hedgies would need to dump assets (potentially enormous amounts) to free up cash intraday. There are stocks squeezing all over the market, cause hedgies shorted everything into the ground. So, I'm looking forward to Marge watching closely. Then maybe this mess can start getting cleaned up and GME holders end up rich in the process. + +**EDIT:** You make a post and go to work, then come back to this holy crap folks. Now I know what RIP inbox means. I mostly made this post to encourage people to HODL on what I figured would likely be a red day. Turns out it was a baby red day, but who cares the price is wrong. + +This post seemed to be generally well received, but for those sending me notes about the age of my account being suspicious (I only used to lurk reddit and still mostly just lurk with the odd post here and there), saying I am hyping dates (just cause this rule goes into effect, doesn't guarantee it's MOASS time, it depends if the rule is actually enforced) and screaming about FUD/shilling (if what I posted here caused you fear/uncertainty/doubt, I don't really know what to say, other than you should get off Reddit for the weekend and go outside or something). I figure this is mostly trolls, since this community is generally pretty good. Gonna go cut my lawn and have a beer. + +**Fuck hedgies, I'll see y'all Monday.** + +EDIT 2: Saw a comment from /u/Reeeeaper that the SEC could have up to 10 days to implement after Monday. We'll see if they want to kick that can even further with the end of the month falling into that window. +I am about to start a job in Finland and wanted to know best practices to deal with all the tax and social security payments. I start working as a freelancer at my own request and after 2-3 months I want a contract as an employee. As Freelancer I'll have to do all on my own but what changes as remote employee? Will my employer pay me more money that I have to send each month to finanzamt and do all the financial tax work on my own? Can I demand extra payment for this additional work and the costs of my tax consultant? I want to know exactly what my net income will be and what my employer has as total costs for a transparent wage negotiation. Thanks for your help! +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/17/alan-greenspan-says-inflation-is-inevitably-going-to-rise-as-deficit-balloons-over-1-trillion.html + +Why does he say this now when we've pumped 4Trillion and no inflation has occurred ? +Just read the book “Die with Zero - Getting all you can from your money and your life” by Bill Perkins. + +Some really interesting concepts and actually made me reassess some of my spending / saving goals. Just wondered if anyone here has read it and had any opinions or thoughts? + +Edit - Just some info on leaving children or family money - The book talks in detail about this, the idea that if you want to give your kids (or other family members) something, then give it whilst you are alive. This normally means you give them the money at a stage of life when they need it (say in their 20s to buy a house) than in their 50s when you die. +This may be a stupid question but in my area home prices are up through the roof right now. My friends just tried to buy a house that before covid would have gone for $400k or so. Now it's above 6, my friend offered $30k extra and got turned down because there were 35 other applicants. Condos are at least 75% the price they were a few years ago. + +While the market will cool off, I feel like practically the only way that housing stock will increase (and prices drop), is slowly as older people who own homes die or retire to other places. I'm not sure how someone who just dropped $600k+ on a house is going to go back to renting any time soon. + +So, even though obviously people are buying for covid-related reasons, isn't this a bad investment long term? I feel like a lot of people are going to try to sell their house in 10, 20, or 30 years and realize that the price hasn't gone up, if at all... +Now I know what you are saying. That is ridiculous. An online brokerage with no physical, corporeal form founded in 1999 could not have possibly committed this heinous felony 30 years ago. + +But has Questrade ever denied the allegation? Have they ever said, "We didn't rape or murder that innocent gradeschooler"? + +I think Questrade's silence on the matter speaks volumes. + +edit: Dear Questrade in-house or outside counsel, QT public relations, or whomever else carries QT's (possibly bloody) water: I am specifically referring to the corporation Questrade as possibly being a felonious, no good sexual predator, not any individual human person currently or formerly associated with your employer/client. I don't even know that any human being would consciously choose to trade their labor with such a possibly vampirous entity. + +edit2: Does anyone know a florist in Toronto that takes reddit coins as payment? I want to leave an arrangement on her grave to show her that she has not been forgotten. +Fidelity removed option to select "All or None" when choosing IEX (or XNYS) exchange while placing 100 share order through Directed Trade. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/m68zoz59u6381.png?width=1254&format=png&auto=webp&s=864e7125382cab9253b8166316947d582567a5a3 + +Before IEX, I used to route 100 share buy orders through XNYS and selected "All or None" option. But now they removed it when selecting XNYS or IEX, and you can only choose "All or None" when you select route to AUTO. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/8hd533luw6381.png?width=1269&format=png&auto=webp&s=e104c7298b169a86ef9542d4de5703e74af99db2 + +This way they can break down 100 share orders or send them to Kenny to not affect the price. +Guys, thank you for giving me even more conviction that we are on the right track. + +If we weren't on the right track, we would've been left to fuck ourselves long time ago. + +We knew they were going to attack our sub. +We knew they were going to try and scare us away. +We knew things were going to get uglier before they got prettier. + +We are at a point of the biggest drama ever encountered in this sub (yet). Which couldn't possibly get me more jacked. + +On Monday I'm buying more. + +So drop it a little more, will you? + +Every single move that you believe is steering me away, is even more confirmation that I'm doing the right thing. +And I KNOW there are thousands more like me. + +You done fucked up Kenny. I can stay in my shitty job longer than you can keep this charade going. + +Pay up. You've lost. +Which companies have almost monopoly in India but may or may not admit it? +Majority of the Indian monopolies exist before 2000,when they built some economic moat. + +So what are these companies? +Let's say one company in each sector if they have a monopoly? And how they build it + +Some obvious examples +Asian Paints (moat -data it collected and is still updating, to optimise efficiency) + +Hindustan Unilever (moat - retail distribution network) + +I wanna know some less known companies with moats and emerging companies which might be next big names in the sector. (eg AU small finance bank in banking sector) + + +Ps- I might be wrong with some facts. I'll be more than happy if you correct me. Still learning +I hate my job (working 70+hour weeks, hate the work, am depressed, etc), and am planning on quitting at the beginning of 2019, after receiving my eoy bonus. I should have ~60-70k saved by then (which would be roughly 2 years of expenses in cash savings-could last longer through using lines of credit,etc). I also have no debt. + +I would want to look for a new job over the coming months, but it is too hard for me to do, considering I am currently working 70+hour weeks, and it could potentially put my eoy bonus in jepoardy if my employer finds out. I am also still looking at doing an educational program after leaving, and could always go back to school if things go very badly. + +My montly expenses are about $2500 (which could be flexed down a bit). + +I know the classic advice is never to leave a job without having a job, but I have thought this through quite thoroughly, and it seems very reasonable for me to leave, rather than stick to a job I hate and suffer a mental break or find another sub-par job and take it just because of the rule. + + +If you are sticking to your Risk/Reward strategy and continuing to follow your detailed trading plan every day, as well as staying away from FOMO and chasing trades, you shouldn't be blowing up an account. + +Now, I'm sure it is still possible to blow up your account while doing those things, but it would take a really long time and you would just have to be really bad at trading. + +Would love to know your thoughts. + +Extra tip: A HARD STOP LOSS IS YOUR BEST FRIEND +Just thought I'd share this as I sometimes see health insurance issues here. + +I got a bill from a medical test that was taken in a doctors office that was IN NETWORK. A year later I got a bill for the test that they had sent out to a company in California that was not in network. + +I was about to just write a check and be done with it and decided to call and pay with my rewards credit card so it wasn't a total loss. I complained about the bill to the customer service rep I got and she said 'let me put you on hold because Florida has a No Surprises law'. While on hold I googled it and it passed in 2016. + +Since it was out of network but from an in network dr/issue the bill was zeroed out and I don't have to pay it. + +It was nuts. From a $400 bill to nothing and had I not called I would have been out $. + +There may be other states with this law so check before you pay. +Hi, I was wondering which YouTube Channels are best to watch for daytrading? Someone honest that really gives good advice and doesn’t just want to sell you a course or something. +Trading methodology and approaches - Lets talk about it. + +&#x200B; + +Over recent times and in past there have been an abundance of various trading systems and approaches to the marketplace + +that claim superiority over each other. Smart money, Elliot waves, traditional support/resistance and supply/demand to just name a few. Throughout your trading career you will no doubt dabble in those mentioned prior and possibly a dozen more before reaching that famous "A ha" moment. + +Alot of 'educators' in this niche' will breeze around this fact and preech to you that sticking to one system over a large sample size will yield you the results you desire by simply tweaking things here or there. That is simply not true. + +There is no right or wrong way to approach trading the markets as i'm sure most of you would have seen through social media, Traders posting extremely large position sizes on what you would interpret as a late or bad entry. Our eyes can only see with what information we currently have within our mental capacity. + +Do not prescribe to one system above all else when learning, I cannot stress this enough. By limiting yourself to such strict rules you limit yourself to future growth as a trader. + +As humans we must continue to evolve and adapt to all situations in life and trading is no different. There's more than one way to skin a cat they say or as Bruce Lee said, be like water my friend. + +Understand that profitability is not a mystical beast that only a few have managed find. Use the vast amount of resources available to you, consume information, discard anything that does not resonate with you at that time but do not discredit it as you may come back to it in the future. + +Observe your peers, through their signal services or educational platform. Be a sponge, dissect others analysis in a way that makes sense to you. Ask for input from others. There's a multitude of traders willing to give their advice, the thing is most people just don't ask. If you do, take that advice simply for what it is, advice. It does not make it scripture. + +Ask most well known Traders where did they learn or did they have a mentor and most will tell you they were self taught. Why? Because of the process I just described. It is hard to give credit to one particular person or group when your methodology comes from your own learning process of trial and error. + +Be extremely cautious of the personalities casting slander over others, social media has enabled people to portray a false ideal to entice more people to pay for their educational services, dissect and discard those in the trading field that do not bring value to you in one way shape or form. + +At the end of the day, most of us entered these markets with a vision of limitless potential to do, provide and care for those closest to us. + +Don't limit your own potential when growing as a Trader. The frustrations you face now lay the foundational work for what's to come in the future. + +DancesWithAlgos +He’s a banana eater now. He might as well be grooming Ryan fucking Cohen. +To me this is so bullish it makes my wife’s boyfriend’s dick diamond hard. This person who worked for citadel, who has seen how the market works, is privy to the fuckery... is wrinkle brained as fuck. He goes full ape and takes a position ! Worth noting that his last involvement just days before was taking a hard look at the CTA reset and millions in after hour volume. It’s the DD that matters to me most not any individual besides my son, Ryan C roaring kitty Keith Jr. But needless to say I’m fucking JACKED. See you in space 🚀🚀🚀🙌💎🦍 + +EDIT: here’s his post saying he bought +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/naoqr9/bought_some_gme_yesterday/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf +It's their last chance to FUD retail out of the stock. Its highly probable that an intense short ladder attack will happen immediately after the split. + +The split will take the price down to around $35. Then at this critical moment they will short it down to whatever they can, maybe even below 20. + +This will be their biggest mistake and our biggest opportunity to lock the float. I have put months of savings away for this moment. Our time is near apes. + +Edit: I am into shares only. I am against options and day trading. DRS all the way! +Just to add some detail, I make between 250\-375k depending on how much work I take. It's about 7 months of actual work with sporadic off time in between \(freelance\). It involves a lot of travel and to be honest is an incredible job working with amazing people. BUT, now that I have 2.5M saved and invested, I can't help but feel like I should take a year or two off while I'm young even if it tanks my career. Go travel, live in different countries, try new things etc etc. I could keep saving money and build this up to 3M in 3\-5 years \(depending on market\), but I don't know if I'll really see much appreciable benefit in waiting. These are good problems to have, and I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm bragging. + +EDIT: Since many have asked, I’m a commercial filmmaker. I direct TV ads. + +EDIT 2: Thank you all for all the advice and different perspectives you have offered. For those who don’t believe me, that’s okay! I got a lot from this and I hope to update you all in a few months with a decision. +This is a common sentiment, and I don't doubt it, but what are some examples? + +Ones I can think of off the top of my head are: +- Paying for things like car insurance upfront usually gives a discount vs. paying monthly +- Buying things with cash rather than credit/loans can give a lower price and save money on interest. + +Most of the things I can think of are basically having cash to pay for things vs borrowing money and paying interest. + +Are there any options that are open to someone with say 100k that aren't available to someone with 10k in terms of growing your wealth? Or 1 million vs 100k? +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. Please keep ALL conversations contained to Gamestop and related topics. + +**Not enough karma?** Here's a [**quick guide**](https://zapier.com/blog/how-to-get-karma-on-reddit/) on how to get it. + +# [announcements](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/announcements) + +* Make sure to check the Announcements regularly. 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Enter it. Press 1 to confirm, then press 1 to confirm again. + +At this point a computer will begin talking, prompting you to press buttons for certain options. Don't do anything – eventually the computer will stop talking and you will be queued in line to speak with an actual human being! + +*However*, if there are too many people queued in line, the computer will tell you they are too busy and will hang up. I personally called once a day 4 days in a row, it wasn't until the 4th attempt that I actually got through and was placed in the queue. + +Also the phone number is only available 7am–7pm local time, Monday–Friday. + +Edit: People are advising caution in the comments not to call a phone number posted on Reddit and provide your SSN, and rightfully so. In my initial post, I should've included a link to the official webpage on [IRS.gov](https://www.irs.gov/help/telephone-assistance) so users can verify themselves the phone number is correct. + +Also fun fact about the IRS phone number! The numbers 829 spell "tax" on the keypad. And the number 1040 is the personal income tax form people are required to fill out. Even the spawns of Satan at the IRS have a fun sense of humor sometimes. +So this weekend my wife checked our bank account and found we had $2000 worth of charges from Stamps.com that we did not make. ~~Two years ago~~ A few months ago she signed up for their service for some shipping but found it cheaper to use the Post Office. Well sometime Friday night someone got into her account (using an old password she hasn't used in years) and ordered $2000 worth of labels in increasing amounts. First $30, then $110 then $300 and so on and so on. Since stamps.com doesn't have any after hours support or anyone on site with the holiday yesterday, they claim there is nothing they can do and all the labels/postage have been printed. + +We called our bank, disputed the charges, had the card replaced and now we have to wait up to 10 days to get the $2000 back to our account. + +While on the phone the rep lectured my wife about proper password safety and actually said "If you watched the news you'd know this is a problem". Wifey says it sounds like the rep was reading from a script so this is likely not an isolated issue. While doing some quick googling this weekend we found more than a few people reporting the same issue this week. Seems like this was a coordinated effort to coincide with the holiday to limit people's ability to fight it. + +So, learn from our mistakes. + +1) Never reuse passwords. Ever. The last few months we have been diligent about this, but we created this account a few years ago and forgotten about it. + +2) Don't use your debit card for online purchases. Use a credit card because while you fight unauthorized charges you're not eating ramen for 4 days while you sort it out. + +3) Do research on businesses before working with them. Stamps.com has a less than stellar reputation for being proactive about dealing with fraud. + +Edit: Changed account creation time frame. +Just wanted to share this to prevent others from making the same mistake I very nearly did. + +I was hesitant to pull the RE trigger, but after I hit my third FI stretch goal, it seemed like now or never. So I sent in a resignation email and figured I was done! + +However, instead of immediately accepting it, my company asked if there was anything that would make me stay. Given that I was FI, I shot for the moon: work part-time from home, and offload the most annoying responsibilities that I wouldn't have time for anymore. They actually said yes, and now I have a relaxed and enjoyable role that allows me to feel half-retired with time for what I want to do in life, while still earning well and building up towards a comfier FIRE. + +So when you hit FI, don't forget you have a lot of leverage with no risk, and you might as well try to take advantage of it before you RE! My experiences at jobs has always been surprise at how often someone will say "yes", so consider (nicely) explaining the role/commitment isn't for you, and asking if you can carve out a special role to stay on, if this is interesting to you. If you've any similar or related experiences, please share :) +That's pretty much it. Finally able to successfully identify weekly highs/lows and taking swing trades off of those, guessing correctly about 70-80% of the time. If you're just starting, expect yourself to suck major ass and lose most of the time for a WHILE. Use a demo account/very small real account. Don't go live until you have a winning track record. And for god's sake use your goddamn stop losses and don't risk more than 1-5% of your account balance per trade (most people say 1-3%). +I have been repeating this over and over,we have to lock the float or get the NFT dividends,there is no other way! If the company issues NFT what could happen but realistically I don’t think this is their top priority right now,we will find out the truth.. But if not,the ONLY way to fight is to lock the float.. We can buy as much as we want,we can write hundreds of complaints to dirty Gary,it won’t help.. They are all together in this! +Honestly there is not about the money anymore,I am prepared to lose it all but I would rather die then sell until those cockroaches end up in jail! + +I really hope GameStop is seeing this similar as we are and realize we can’t go forward with criminals on our back! + +We ain’t leaving!! +My husband died suddenly on Saturday and I’m not sure what to do. We have a mortgage, one car payment, boat payment, $8000 in CC debt, and he did have a small student loan balance. Between his ESOP and IRAs he has about $200,000.00 and we had a small life Insurance policy on him through my work of $12,000. + +I will be selling the house, boat, and one of the vehicles and I may just pay off all the cc debt, but I don’t want to make any rash decisions. + +I’m so lost. + +Edit/Update: Thank you all so much for this information. A little more info on our full situation. My husband and I live in Alaska in a more remote area and it was just the two of us. He died while running a 10k and I saw him about 3 minutes before and he was ecstatic and smiling and gave me a thumbs up. Both of our families live in New Mexico, so I will be moving back there. The boat was just a pleasure boat we'd use on the ocean and luckily it's a very sought after boat in this state so it should move quickly. We have one truck that is paid off and I will be selling that and keeping my Subaru. I went ahead and canceled all of the auto payments on his credit cards and I've already begun paperwork on IRA's and the life insurance policy. I'm fortunate that my family has means and are able to help me right now. My parents arrived the day after he died and his Dad and sister arrived Tuesday night, so I have a wonderful support network. I have about 13000 liquid with about 7000 more coming in so I'll be able to make the mortgage payment, car, etc. while we're waiting to clear things out. The ESOP is not paid out until a year after the event and my Dad has already contacted his financial advisor to help me navigate what to do with the money as well as not to be hit hard with taxes. I'll also be able to receive his Permanent Fund Dividend this year which is good since I guess it's supposed to be a whopper. I feel so fortunate that we somewhat had our shit together. My husband and I were both socking money away into our retirement accounts and we had a modest home so we could have lots of adventures, which we did. We lived without regrets and that is really helping me right now. Well I guess I slightly misspoke, I wish we did have more life insurance, but hindsights always 20/20. If anyone can learn anything from my situation it is this: Life is fleeting. Live everyday to the fullest. My husband and I went on adventures nearly every weekend. Whether it be hiking, backpacking, bike-packing, boating, fishing, hunting, traveling, we were always doing something. We told each other numerous times a day that we loved each other and we were each others world. I will get through this and I will continue to accomplish the goals that we shared together. Life through me a shitty surprise, but it's not the end of the world. I will get better. My beloved loved to tell me to get my shit together when I was being a whiny pants and that's just what I'm going to do. Also, because I'm selfish in my grief and if anyone is interested to learn more about my [amazing husband](https://www.sewardjournal.com/eedition/page/page_643cb6a9-a712-5261-8d3f-323e2b159dae.html), I wrote a letter of thanks and it's been published in two papers. +**Official announcement post:** [https://brave.com/brave-launches-user-trials-for-opt-in-ads/](https://brave.com/brave-launches-user-trials-for-opt-in-ads/) + +"We’ve been busy building our new Basic Attention Token (BAT) platform, which includes a new consent-based digital advertising model that benefits users, publishers, and advertisers. Our first phase started last Fall with the integration of BAT into Brave Payments, and enabled users to anonymously distribute contributions to their favorite publishers and creators. + +We’re now ready to start voluntary testing of our ad model before we scale to further user trials. Once we’re satisfied with the performance of the ad system, Brave ads will be shown directly in the browser in a private channel to users who consent to see them. When the Brave ad system becomes widely available, users will receive 70&#37; of the gross ad revenue, while preserving their privacy.   + +* In June, we’ll be doing opt-in tests with a select group of users to collect insight about the user experience. This test will serve to analyze user interactions with a new way to deliver ads. Around 250 pre-packaged ads will be rotated during this trial and users will be given a special version of the Brave browser loaded with those ads. This special Brave version is part of the test program only. It sends a detailed log of the browsing activity to Brave, which is used as algorithmic test data to check our on-device machine learning. Brave will not share this information, and users can leave this test at any time by switching off this feature or using a regular version of Brave (which never logs user browsing data to any server). +* Later this month, we plan to run further studies with a larger set of users to improve user modeling and to integrate specific usage of the browser, with the primary goal of understanding how behavior in the browser impacts when to deliver ads. This will serve to strengthen existing modeling and data classification engines and to refine the system’s machine learning. +* In a few months, we will start expanded user trials, with a focus on the impact of rewards in a user-centric ad system. Thousands of ads will be used in this phase, and users will be able to earn tokens for viewing and interacting with ads. + +By moving matching from the ad exchange to the device, Brave ads merge innovation with privacy-by-design and put the user in control. Instead of sending and exposing user data to opaque third parties in cloud-based auctions, Brave’s approach enables a more efficient and direct opportunity to access user attention without the inherent liabilities and risks involved with large scale user data collection. + +Brave pushes ad catalogs (one per region and natural language) to available devices on a recurring basis. Downloading a catalog does not identify any user. As the user browses, Brave locally matches the best available ad from the catalog to display that ad at the appropriate time. Brave ads are opt-in and consent-based (disabled by default), and engineered to operate without leaking the user’s personal data from their device. + +We’re excited about unveiling this phase of our development, and about rolling out a system that properly values user attention. The current advertising model exploits users and has eroded trust, as well as net revenue to publishers and other creators. We will reward users for their attention while shielding their identities and protecting their privacy. We believe that user data and attention hold substantial value if they are defended vigilantly on users’ devices, and that the transparent Brave ads delivery approach and the Basic Attention Token will provide users a fair share.      + +If you’re interested in joining these trials, please contact our Early Access group via [community.brave.com](https://community.brave.com/t/something-new-brave-early-access-a-call-for-volunteers/17894)." +Throwaway account for anonymity. + +I am at $10 million, with another $2 million coming in the next 5-10 years. Currently 35% in rental properties, 45% in VTSAX, 20% in alternative investments. I am fully FatFired…apart from a little bookkeeping work on the rental properties now and then. 50 years-old with no intention of working again. I want to make everything as simple as possible and am considering just putting the whole lot in VTSAX (minus a small portion in cash). I’m definitely selling all the properties…don’t want to deal with them anymore and there’s so little inventory out there at the moment that it’s like a feeding frenzy right now with the one I already have on the market, so it’s a great time to sell them. Some of the alternative investments have up to 7 years or so to run…can’t get out before that. But as soon as I can, I like the idea of getting everything into VTSAX (or a mix of that and an international index fund) and just living off 3%-4%. $300k is ample, $400k means even more travel. And when the other $2 million arrives then there will be even more cashflow. + +My question – does anyone else out there at my approximate NW do the same thing? Or at that level is that really leaving too much possible money on the table by not having some in real estate and/or alternative investments? Part of me wants the peace of mind of only having the one thing to deal with each month, or quarter. Another part wonders if I’d be missing an opportunity to move up another level and have more for things like philanthropy and helping out family, without too much risk since I’d obviously still be fine if my NW ended up going down by $2 or $3 million. Though that would obviously suck a bit and put a dent in the total peace of mind that’s top of my want list. I'm not looking for suggestions to put a percentage in a bond fund. I may end up doing that, though at this level of money it seems safe enough to just have it all in stocks and lower my spending to $200k if there’s a prolonged downturn. I’m just wanting verification that others do put literally almost everything into index funds at this level of NW and more or less set it and forget it. So, anyone else gone the really conservative route with that level of NW? If not, how have you spread it out? +Today, I decided to take a look at possible reasons from a graphical standpoint on why we could be trading sideways for several months. Volume has dropped to nearly nothing, and we have been stuck in the 20$ to 30$ channel. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/v03su7c3pd4a1.png?width=997&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e6dd2b8b10b9f2b9355e7a4feb44ab0ff4c0f39 + +&#x200B; + +I have two theories why we are trading in this channel. + +1. 25$ is not too high to pay short interest payments on, but is high enough to slow down retail from locking the float via DRS for a 'known' time period. If we are locking it at a specific rate based on the price and purchasing power, they could theoretically figure out how long it will take us and are likely using psychological analysis and historical trends for how long movements last and are basically trying to wait us out. + +&#x200B; + +2) The stock price has converged with the average price of the shorts, so the oscillator has dampened, so to speak. This theory forced me to put on my tinfoil hat a bit, but it makes sense to me. I will walk through it using a series of graphs. + +&#x200B; + +Data for the graphs was all taken from here: + +[https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/) + +&#x200B; + +I am going to make the assumption (for the sake of this analysis) that naked shorting started in earnest on or around Jan 2015. I make this assumption since it was when the stock started it's long descent, and coincides with poor holiday sales and the mass transition to digital media. + +&#x200B; + +[Start date chart](https://preview.redd.it/u41fw7qi4e4a1.png?width=1459&format=png&auto=webp&s=1be4dc07f0eeed9a74ea228980fe7705f8aa5dbc) + +After that, I split up the chart into 3 sections, where I believe that the short interest shifted. The first rate was from early 2015 until Jan 27, 2021. The second rate was from Jan 8 2021 until Thanksgiving 2021 (when the Fed signaled rate hikes). The third rate is from that date until present. + +Each rate coincides with distinct changes in the way GME traded during that timeframe. The rates are also naked short rates, not just regular short volume rates. If I have a rate of .05, it means that 5% of the daily trading volume was added to the float as naked shares. + +&#x200B; + +Stocks being naked shorted typically follow exponential decay curves based on a naked shorting rate, assuming that the buy/sell ratio is stagnant over the duration (*obviously this an oversimplification*) + +https://preview.redd.it/1cvrgpi3wd4a1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=f760757e9836187a34439429ae3c2107043a35ee + +During the initial naked shorting rate period (Jan15-Jan21), I theorize that the naked short rate is between 5-10%. If the rate is any higher, the decay price would drop much quicker and it would have required a much greater than 50% buy/sell ratio to maintain the levels that it had. + +&#x200B; + +Here is a quick example: + +If the naked shorting rate were 25%, this is how the exponential decay chart would look (pre sneeze) + +[Exponential decay curve at 25&#37; naked short volume](https://preview.redd.it/s2tng1pkzd4a1.png?width=1018&format=png&auto=webp&s=5005df427a56cffbb8017fcdd8b908cbeca7e3e3) + +And now 5% + +[Exponential decay curve at 5&#37; naked short volume](https://preview.redd.it/kmebtdhtzd4a1.png?width=1018&format=png&auto=webp&s=94630b328e663ba95584e2e6fb38dafd13e9841b) + +&#x200B; + +Now I am going to break up the rates into 3 sections and show where the average short position is based on numerous scenarios + +&#x200B; + +For the first example, this is the chart that I believe most closely follows the actual numbers. I start with 5% up until the sneeze, go to 10% until the end of 2021, then increase it to a whopping 50% at thanksgiving. The current naked short position would be sitting at 25% on the nose. + +[0.05\/.1\/.5 Ends at $25](https://preview.redd.it/1zjc5n67pd4a1.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=082c103bd77c99b2a078b56e6996a8965c732fe2) + +&#x200B; + +Now adjusting the rates around a bit, here are more examples: + +[0.05\/.2\/.3 Ends at $26](https://preview.redd.it/c2fg2hfcpd4a1.png?width=1270&format=png&auto=webp&s=0048a5545577b720d83b34a9953964308c6510bf) + +&#x200B; + +[0.1\/0.2\/0.5 Ends at $23](https://preview.redd.it/f4tjkj56rd4a1.png?width=1273&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a2c2c0a6a3b65e8d8c1276d9fdf0a98b1f7e9de) + +&#x200B; + +[0.1\/0.5\/1 Ends at $29](https://preview.redd.it/j6yt5l6crd4a1.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfe39e65c0441882f655725979faed5f5d2211e3) + +&#x200B; + +[0.05\/.25\/.5 Ends at $29](https://preview.redd.it/cki88ahgrd4a1.png?width=1282&format=png&auto=webp&s=33b66d68d3b328a3be78902c4521b6283c6b9aca) + +And now here is an example if they stuck to the 5% naked short volume without change throughout the duration. + +[0.05\/0.05\/0.05 Ends at $17](https://preview.redd.it/8uc0zuh71e4a1.png?width=1281&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ece87835d0157a8783f6b5ead2ca4b457a57927) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +For the final chart, I am showing what the price would be with a 25% naked short rate off the bat, increasing to 50% after the sneeze. The average price would be around $21 + +[0.25\/.5\/.5 Ends at $21](https://preview.redd.it/s6mgxe5nrd4a1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=19a861008289b6612c61867e8b55a480692c1c60) + +&#x200B; + +Any way that I cut the numbers based on the initial date that I chose, the average naked short position converges into the channel that GME is currently sitting (and has been sitting for 3+ months). + +&#x200B; + +Please let me know your thoughts and if there are any other numbers or dates I should plug into my equations! + +&#x200B; + +If there are any glaring flaws, please let me know that as well :) + +&#x200B; + +TL;DRS - GME is sitting around $25 because it is either in a sweet spot to slow down DRS/not bleed the naked short sellers, or the price has converged to the average cost basis for the naked short sellers, or both. +I really don't want to sound like some corporate shill, but I want to share this because it has helped me tremendously with my food budget. If this is against any rules, please take down. + +I started using the app called Mealime in September and it has changed my life. It is a free app, I get it through iOS. You pick meals that you're interested in making for the week and it creates a grocery list for you. Then when you are ready to cook it gives you step by step instructions. It also has an option for picking meals together that use up the same ingredients, so you aren't letting anything perishable go to waste. The meals are using mostly fresh produce and they have the option to change preferences based off of allergies and foods you dislike. + +Before mealime I would have a really hard time grocery shopping. I didn't know how to shop for meals. Instead I would just get random stuff that I thought maybe could feed me throughout the week. Usually this was sweet potatoes and frozen chicken breasts. I would end up not getting enough food and eat out, spending through my food budget, getting depressed, and not feeling healthy. + +Since using mealime, I'm gotten my food budget for the week down to a science. I have favorite meals that I will use consistently, and sometimes i'll feel spontaneous and try something new. The meals sizes you can choose are 2 servings to 6 servings. I'm a single person so I do the 2. Sometimes I will cook for both me and my boyfriend or I will take leftovers for lunch the next day to work. I've noticed how much healthier I've felt, I actually like what I'm eating, I'm enjoying cooking, and I've saved so much money because mealime is forcing me to plan out my meals throughout the week. Usually I'll chose 3 meals for the week, then get a couple things I can make quick on days I'm not super hungry/short on time (Potatoes, quick soups, rice). + + +Not sure if it would work super well for families, but for a single person like me it's been a lifesaver. +Hi everyone, I was just wondering why so many people are still so doom and gloom, I know everyone is just focusing on the price, even though we have the most developed team by far, but even if that is all you are doing, why are you not celebrating that you can be buying more at these sort of prices, my strategy for all of this year will be to buy as much as I can every month when I get paid, I seriously don't think there will ever be a chance like this again in our lifetimes, yes you can make 5% maybe 10% on stocks and shares but you will never get the returns that crypto can provide, and now you have a second chance to buy an already proven "product" at a very discounted price and you don't want in? Yes there is the argument that people who bought at the top feel very burned but really if you held all the way down to now, you must have some belief in Ethereum, so just go for it do what you can to top up what you had and I dont think you will regret it, and I am not just saying this to "shill my bags" as some people like to say, I am and will be buying each month this year, whether the price goes up or goes down, and to be honest I would prefer it to go down right now so I would be getting more each month, but I want people along for the ride and for them to not miss out also, I have been lurking for some time and just recently decided to get on reddit and be part of the community, and I am hoping to get to know a fair few of you here as well and we can all experience the highs and lows together, better stop here as I have been rambling for a bit now, but seriously stay strong guys, and if there was ever a time to be greedy this is it! +So i lost my job and ive been trying to figure out how i can make $300 a day . I thought i had it figured out so i tried cutting grass but in all my efforts even working up to 10-12 hours a day all i could make was about $150 a day. anyone doing really well have any side hustle or tips on how to start making $250 a day or more? +What the fuck is going on? The front page is full of posts about short squeezes, market manipulation, holding the line, coordinated FUD attacks and other conspiracy-theory nonsense. I get that a lot of folks had a lot of fun and made some good money with the AMC/GME trades - but you have to realize that you caught lightning in a bottle, this shit doesn't happen all the time, and it definitely doesn't happen in markets as liquid and enormous as bitcoin. + +I don't know what this sub is or will end up being about with 3 million members- but can we all just make a commitment to not turn it into some hodl cult to bitcoin? I know we hate centralization but maybe some new moderator policies could help cut down on this kind of discourse. I'm not saying "go back where you came from" or any bullshit like that - I am pretty new to the whole scene as well and I think everyone should be welcome - doesn't mean that every sub has to turn into some off-brand WSB +After a year of following the script and house hacking we are throwing in the towel on house hacking. + +Why? Well. We hate it! + +Coming from a HCOL city it made perfect sense. We used our higher salaries in the HCOL area to save for the downpayment on a duplex in a LCOL area. We found the perfect duplex, and set off in relocating. We slashed our expenses, housing, transportation, everything else that comes with moving to a lower cost area. + +But after a year, we have had it. The lack of boundaries between our private personal lives and business is simply not worth it. We are excited to once again pay a housing payment out of our own pockets. Because you simply cannot put a price on your freedom, time and effort. + +With a househack, arm's length investing is an impossibility. The expectation that you are always on call is difficult to get around when your home is your business. Providing a service to someone in your own home is exhausting and you can never really relax - there is no out of sight out of mind in a house hack. + +I'm excited to have a home again soon. A business is not a home, a home is not a business. + +I feel like so much conventional guidance is pro house hacking to get ahead and all the benefits you reap from it. This house hacking failure's guidance? You cannot put a price tag on living without constraints in your own home. + +Edit: Some lessons learned. This hack didn't go exactly as we had hoped, but maybe instead of chalking it up as a failure, I'm going to reflect on the big things I learned. + +1. I still say you cannot put a price on your freedom, time and effort...which is why we should have hired a PM from the start. A very small price to pay that would have afforded us these things + +2. Not revealing that we are the owners of the property would have 100% been the way to go. If/when we try another hack, going to use these lessons from this flop and incorporate them + +With house hacking, I was always under the impression that you should manage things on your own, but it's really not for everyone (and certainly not for me!). +As you can see, I have marked this as a verified post, since I think that the issue I am having is a direct result of having a large amount of money. Net worth is around $25m-30m, and annual income from investments seems to be around $1m annually (with asset appreciation an additional 5-10%). Growth happened relatively rapidly, and my annual spending seems to hover around $350k pre-tax. + +Issue is that I have no idea what things cost any more. Numbers are just out of whack. I spent $2300 for a first class ticket cross country with no issues, but then today found myself asking if it was worth spending another $600 to go a day early. $600 seemed like a lot of money for a day extra on my trip - said my old self. But then again, I wouldn't notice it at the end of the year, really. But this mental shift seems kind of difficult for some reason. + +The world isn't set up for large numbers and income like I have and I can't seem to adjust my thinking to them. Any suggestion on how you might have approached this issue yourself? +I started messing around on the stock market early last year and made a small amount of money, my family wanted in on the action and my mothers fiance wanted to invest £1000. I protested since I'm not an experienced trader and could loose it all... my mother kept asking me for weeks to do it for him and i eventually caved and took his money.. well what do you know, I lost it all like an idiot. And now he is asking for it back after it is all gone and I litterally don't have the funds to give it back. + +Please learn from my mistake, many people assume that if they invest money with someone making/made money on the stock market that they will too and that their money is somehow safe when its really not. +**This is not financial nor investment advice. These are ideas and opinions for information purposes only.** + +*This post will read bottom to top. It's easier for people to refresh the page and see edits at the top* + +**Historical supports and resistances:** + +116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 156.5, 162.5, 165.5, 172, 174, 176.5, 179, 180.5, 182, 183.5, 184.5, 186, 187.5, 190.5, 192, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 226, 230, 234, 243, 250, 253, 256.5 + +**Edit 18 4:01PM:** + +Closing around 167, up 18.45%. What a great day! + +See you all tomorrow. + +**Edit 17 3:54PM:** + +18m of deep ITM Calls showing up. Possible tiny tiny dip at market open tomorrow? + +https://preview.redd.it/9b33how327t61.png?width=2464&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9bc582056b1d2e4c9debeac3b41501269db7c14 + +**Edit 16 3:17PM:** + +8 Million dollars worth of Puts. Unknown if it was bought or sold since it is Mid. + +https://preview.redd.it/avifw9ufv6t61.png?width=2463&format=png&auto=webp&s=219336c48d11a2f5fb4a9fbd31faa4f2de240abd + +**Edit 15 3:02PM:** + +Power hour stream: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C14ZXYdl9h4&ab\_channel=WardenElite](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C14ZXYdl9h4&ab_channel=WardenElite) + +**Edit 14 2:39PM:** + +Larger volume on the 200 strikes. + +[https:\/\/www.optionsonar.com\/unusual-option-activity\/GME\/latest-trades](https://preview.redd.it/9ypei3noo6t61.png?width=2435&format=png&auto=webp&s=f35eb89ba2a43a59b9f91672fbe5999cff46d019) + +**Edit 13 1:54PM:** + +Starting to slip through the 162.5 support. + +https://preview.redd.it/51d4g06og6t61.png?width=2149&format=png&auto=webp&s=3014d3b89ca9ae0945e6f63056b3061bcd20fe68 + +**Edit 12 1:17PM:** + +\----------> + +Let's see if power hour gives us some more action. + +**Edit 11 11:34AM:** + +Get on stream! Won't be updating the post for a bit, things getting hectic. + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGw9X0eu\_c0&ab\_channel=WardenElite](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGw9X0eu_c0&ab_channel=WardenElite) + +**Edit 10 11:24AM:** + +171.5 likely. + +**Edit 9 11:21AM:** + +Options updates: Lots of new Calls rolling in. + +[https:\/\/www.optionsonar.com\/unusual-option-activity\/GME\/latest-trades](https://preview.redd.it/5p2bgf2ep5t61.png?width=2460&format=png&auto=webp&s=0759bfa9ccbd4af7381f7f4849b70e0265474657) + +**Edit 8 11:08AM:** + +171.5 perhaps. + +**Edit 7 11:02AM:** + +**We goin up.** Broke through the resistance of the wedge already. + +https://preview.redd.it/7al0cbdul5t61.png?width=2135&format=png&auto=webp&s=269734dcb45558efd78dcd8d2f09bfbea2a30a4c + +**Edit 6 10:59AM:** + +KEEP CLIMBING MOAR! + +**Edit 5 10:44AM:** + +KEEP CLIMBING + +**Edit 4 10:25AM:** + +More sideways trading zZZ. + +Couple small Call orders went in today. + +[https:\/\/www.optionsonar.com\/unusual-option-activity\/GME\/latest-trades](https://preview.redd.it/bh70wjrgf5t61.png?width=2487&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ced5fdc67525624aecaf0df7c9cca810bbb3385) + +**Edit 3 9:45AM:** + +Bit of a pullback with a hammer candle marking a local dip. + +https://preview.redd.it/4z1gp90885t61.png?width=2145&format=png&auto=webp&s=33e6a9e84e51f4589253b318bf8b055d84483925 + +**Edit 2 9:36AM:** + +Volume is enough to support this trend. Tested the 156.5 resistance. Possible room to go higher. + +https://preview.redd.it/agejolij65t61.png?width=2142&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce0449c59a98a6ef0876eb5fd12d2a89ff29d0a3 + +**Edit 1 9:31AM:** + +348k volume first minute candle. Another low volume day? + +# Begin Reading Here + +Gooooooood morning my space astronauts! + +Let's cut straight to the chase. + +We're up in the premarket. A bit overextended so don't be surprised by a small market open dip. + +https://preview.redd.it/ajlfps0g35t61.png?width=2139&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb77822227b2a5267ed43f7ab2da2ddb0da056e3 + +My gut feeling says that we're nearing the beginning of something big. This low volume will eventually go away and we'll some more wilder swings later in the week. Perhaps we can get a slow steady climb today. + +Stream: + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGw9X0eu\_c0&ab\_channel=WardenElite](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGw9X0eu_c0&ab_channel=WardenElite) +If you are journalist - speak loud. +If you know journalist - make him/her hear out. +Use all social networks, groups, economic forums. +FLOOD the net with this. +Make even the most simple, ordinary person understand he is being robbed and this can end. +Because we know. +This. +I'm a novice in this regard but I'm willing to do the hard work and read up on things if it is indeed a legitimate strategy for investment. + +Most people I know who talk about bitcoins do so flippantly and therefore it's hard for me to take them seriously. + +I'd love to hear opinions. +**Typo in the title: March 27, 2000 was the dotcom peak** + +**Edit: As people are pointing out, this information doesn't consider dividends. [Here's a chart](https://i.imgur.com/zxvjVUS.png) with dividends. QQQ has still not caught up to SPY since dotcom peak.** + +I won't claim to be an expert who interprets what this means, just found it interesting after throwing these up on a chart. + +* [March 27, 2000 to present](https://i.imgur.com/ElmDDwG.png) + +* [March 27, 2001 to present](https://i.imgur.com/JcG87c6.png) +So, I'm an idiot. + +Mid-30's, young family, as of Feb 2021 I had 250K sitting in the bank from the sale of our house and due to reasons can't buy again for another 2-3 years and now renting. I wasn't too thrilled about 0.5-1.5% interest rates for HISA and figured I could invest 50K in ETFs and get a higher level of return than 250K in the bank in that time. + +So late Feb when ETFs were booming, got the case of FOMO and put the 50K into 30% VTI, 25% VXUS, 40% ARKK + 5% PBW. + +I boarded the hype-train of future tech and clean energy (knowing they were high risk but convinced thanks to cognitive bias that they were sure things with great returns) and now am feeling sick looking at the near 20% loss of 50% of my portfolio... + +Now in looking forward the next 2-3 years, should I hold my position (at least in VTI & VXUS) or just cut my losses and throw it all back into savings? I've found articles suggesting ARKK and PBW could continue to slide for at least another year, however also believe in the "long-term" potential of their holdings - but is 2-3 years long enough? I'm thinking not... +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/EKU2tVBp9u). +Hey beautiful apes, this is just starting here! We are a bunch of countries and millions and millions and millions of possible apes in the making. + +Trends here are powerful as shit. Just look at what one new reggaeton song does. You get all the busty latinas dancing like it’s an ape mating ritual. + +GME is more than a trend. It’s a well documented, DD intensive, mathematical movement! + +If GME doesn’t give you a hard on like watching a Latina doing “perreo” to a Bad Bunny song, i don’t know what else will. + +When we moon 🚀🚀🚀🌑🌑 (very soon) I will throw a dancehall perreo party and stream all the sexy latinas dancing to the beat of GME. + +The second party I will invite all the APEs to a private Island in Panama’s Pearl Islands Archipelagos in the pacific coast and go crazy!! (Im well known for throwing sick parties with the hotests girlss around!!). + +Remember, HOLD and VOTE! The floor ir $10milliom!! GME to the moon!! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + + + +Edit 1: missed my mexican friends 🇲🇽🇲🇽 +Edit 2: of course how am i gonna miss all my papis. 🇵🇷🇵🇷🇵🇷🇵🇷. +Edit 3: 🇩🇴🇩🇴 representing also! +Edit 4: 🇨🇺🇪🇨🇺🇾🇵🇾🇬🇹🇳🇮🇭🇳🇧🇴 + +Increidable to see apes in every country of Latin America and beyond! We strong and growing!! 🦍🦍 + After Friday's close, SI reached 70.97M from Jan 21's SI of 70.46M. Institutional cost of borrowing also increased very slightly to 24.2%. + + [GME SI left to the rightmost column(exported from ORTEX data)](https://imgur.com/a/0gQjYT6) + +We know GME absolutely ripped in Friday due to gamma hedging. Some old shorts covering could have been the main reason behind the ignition switch but I am not very confident about that. + +GME is already ripping in pre-market and I don't know what's triggering that. Maybe it's retail euphoria. + +Looks like we will continue to have gamma squeezes, tweets from Papa Cohen etc until shorts are forced to cover and close most of their shorts. I am changing my thesis. I thought we will see a slow TSLA-esque short-covering in GME. Looks like we are setting up for something much quicker. + +^(Disclaimer: This is based on ORTEX's best estimates. I am not a financial advisor. This is not investment advice. Invest in anything at your own risk.) +For starters this seems to me like a total scam. But I'm no crypto expert and don't trade any. I figured I'd come here and ask the best. + +[Here](https://imgur.com/a/a3SJNMh) are a few screenshots showing the balance and the "support teams" response in order to withdrawal it all. + +They claim he needs to pay $62,000 in taxes from his own money separate from the balance in his account in order to withdraw. + +Here is where I come in. He calls **Me** asking if he can borrow $62,000. + +I told him I don't have the money simply because if it sounds too good to be true it probably is and I'm not taking that loss. + +Edit: Name of the exchange is ~~Coinlist~~ Coinlistxrt + +Edit 2: He put in 200k of his own money to "grow" it to 500k. + +Edit 3: Overwhelmingly everyone agrees it is a scam some saying they have seen it before. Honestly, I feel terrible for him. He invested 200k and as it seems like that money is forever lost. That's some nightmare fuel. That being said if you are going to invest 200K into **ANYTHING** you should know it better inside and out than your ex-wife. + +Edit 4: Press F + +Edit 5: [Norton Safe Web Report](https://safeweb.norton.com/report/show?name=coinlistxrt.com) courtesy of u/Admirable_Ad1430 for Coinlistxrt. + +Edit 6: Some people have brought to my attention that the URL for the official CoinList is not the same URL as in the screenshot. The official Coinlist domain is coinlist.co and the one in the screenshot is coinlistxrt.com + +Edit 7: Turns out while Coinlist has a terrible reputation it is not the exchange he was scammed through. Looks to me like he joined Coinlistxrt which is an imitation of the official Coinlist.co site. Thanks to those who pointed that out. + +Edit 8: Thank you for everyone who offered their support and helped out with this. This was my first post in CryptoCurrency and I want to say you all are awesome. I need to get back to work now. Thank you again! + +Edit 9: As I've seen said numerous times in the comments he was in fact recommended to this exchange by someone he met on tinder. + +Edit 10: A few incredibly nice redditors have reached out directly to offer assistance. I won't name them specifically but I am extremely thankful for their help. + +Edit 11: u/Gemini_George gave me permission to share his info. He has been helping me out tremendously and to bring further attention to the danger of these scams please visit this [link](https://www.gemini.com/blog/common-online-scams-and-how-to-avoid-them) + +Final Edit: Some people have been supportive and some have been fairly cruel but hey this is the internet. + +I wanted to say this. Scams are getting extremely elaborate. To go to the lengths of matching with someone on a dating platform to having organic conversation with them for weeks before this crypto idea was brought up is insane. Perhaps even more surprising is how there was proper grammar in their conversations for that length of time. The scam exchange they used is built to look pretty legit as well. After skimming through I did find some grammar errors though. + +These people are attacking on multiple levels involving emotional connection and a promise for a better future. They strike when your guard is down. As an outsider it can be easier to see the red flags but when you're in the hot seat thinking you've met someone who is looking out for your best interests it's not as clear. + +They started out by asking him to invest a small amount of money into the exchange. They said to make this work you need to time the node properly to profit which only happens during a small window of the day. He saw how his money "grew" and he thought he was being successful. To reinforce this they paid him out a portion of the money he "made". He continued on and on until he was eventually all in. That leads him to where he is today. + +I hope this brings attention to those who were unaware and that everyone stays safe trading. +I hear people say "I'm holding onto Stock ABC until it bounces back so I can break even" + +But what's the reasoning behind this? To avoid a capital loss? So what if you have a capital loss? + +Let's say the company's outlook is not looking good, doesn't it just make more sense to just cut your losses and find a new company to invest in? +I’m a finance major, I’ve been studying this for years, and I see a big contradiction here. Some will say that technology will allow us to continue this system in a more efficient manner, but there is no system in the world that is or could be 100% efficient. Additionally, the constant growth required for capitalism to function properly also to some degree requires increasing population growth, and/or increasing productivity, both of which are limited by human and technological capabilities. It doesn’t add up. I’m not suggesting that I have a better idea, yet the absence of a better answer doesn’t mean we need to choose a system that is contradictory in nature. +&#x200B; + +Hi. I'm a 26 year old who lives in his car and was wondering if it would be possible to go back to college. I've been working lots of different jobs and have about 10k saved and have started applying for different colleges around me. + + +I graduated high school back in 2012 and due to my health and just overall lack of motivation i was kicked from the college in 2015. I then attended a small community college for a year but was starting to fail there as well so just stopped going there. +I've been teaching myself web development and some basic C# programming but not entirely sure what i should major in. (digital media?? computer science??) + +I have a couple questions. +1) If i had fafsa financial aid in the past is it possible to qualify for it again years later (2012-2015 vs now 2020) + + +2) Is it worth applying again to a college that you were academically dismissed for (don't really want to spend 40 dollars for a submission fee for a college that i have no chance getting in) at the end of my run i had around a 1.2 gpa + +3) What sort of scholarships or grants should someone my age group should be looking for since i don't/didn't have good grades? (african american male, parents only had associates, don't make much money, Haitian Heritage.) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +As I’m 5-8 years away, I’ve recently pulled back on equity stocks and ETF. Given how volatile the markets are, and the geopolitical state of the world, I’m trying to preserve my capital. + +With interest rates moving upwards, GICs are looking more attractive. Yes, inflation but at this point, it’s about lowering risks. + +That said, are there extremely low risk ETFs with a better return? +That's it, Whales control the market and there's nothing much you can do about it other than to play long term + +Today the sentiment here was of death... in a few a minutes a lot of buying orders and BTC pumped 2k up and alts followed. Do you think this is organic? + +Of course not! Whales are playing with the market and will continue to do so and take money off from retail, specially when you buy at the top and panic sell + +Other way to lose larges amount of money to whales is leveraging. A lot of shorts got blasted in the last 2 hours + +Just check Whale Alert twitter, there are millions and billions of dollar moving from just a few wallets. + +Even if everyone in this sub chipped in with 10 USD$, it wouldn't even come close to whales' power. See this transactions just a few hours ago: " 129,921,132 USDT (129,921,132 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to BINANCE ". That's over 30 USD for each one here! And that's just one Whale + +TLDR: That's it boys and girls, you're a mere shrimp or algae in this crypto ocean, and the only real tool you have at your disposal is playing long term and not panic buy/sell, all the rest is playing with your luck and chances are you are going to get crushed by the whales +Friday is the day I plan on breaking the news to my boss that I'm quitting! +[clarification: I want my final day of work to be June 1st, so I'm giving 4+ weeks notice] + +I've been with the same company for over 20 years, currently in a software architecture role but most of my time was as a developer. I'm in a very comfortable FI position monetarily and my soon-to-be spouse wants to continue to work, so I have an additional safety cushion. + +I've been planning this for the past 3-4 years but it's amazing that the day is finally about to approach! I must admit that I feel a mixture of excitement, nervousness and guilt. + +I'm not sure what my boss is going to say when I tell him the news but I have a strong feeling he's going to try to talk me out of it by offering different project opportunities or maybe be offering more compensation. Fortunately none of those things matter to me now. What I want is something he can't offer...freedom over my time! + +Just wanted to share this (my first post!) with the group to keep myself accountable for sticking with my decision on Friday - and to hear how others handled their "final day" discussions with their boss. +Today exactly 72hrs or whatever before travel, I get an email that the flight Is cancelled per the airline. I hadn’t made changes or cancelled the flight yet. Though I was planning to but they had told me to wait until 72 hours before the flight to make any changes. + +Dealing with Expedia: + +Flight was booked through Expedia. So I contacted them first. They said “we’re gonna check out United’s policies” + +Waited for like 20 min on chat for an answer.... + +Expedia: “As per instructions we got from United, they are not offering refund for this flight, instead they are giving credit for future travel.” +Me: They canceled my flight. I didn’t. Why wouldn’t that qualify me for a refund? + +Expedía: “I’m sorry about it, due to the situation going on, we must follow the airlines decision. But if you really wish to get a refund, as a friendly recommendation, you can try to submit a refund claim with the airline directly.” + +I asked them if there’s anything they can since I booked through them and they said “nahh fam but good luck tho” + +Dealing with United: + +I call united and get a rep on the phone tell them “I’m calling because my flight has been cancelled and I would like to understand why I do not qualify for a refund” + +The lady says flight was canceled but asked if my dates are flexible she could accommodate. I said no I’m not traveling, we can’t leave. + +She said she’s gonna check my options. I’m assuming it’s gonna be what Expedia told me. Airline credit to use within 12 months of date or purchase. Which is BS cause I bought the ticket in December and in December I didn’t know we’d be in this pickle. + +United also offered a travel certificate that I could use for two years and it doesn’t have to be the original ticketed passenger using it. (IMO loophole as their solution for the DOT being on their ass). + +I told her I have no intentions of traveling in the near future and would like a full refund this is why DOT issued their guidance. + +As soon as DoT was mentioned I got a complete different attitude. “okay sir please hold while we request authorization for a refund to the credit card that was used at the time or purchase” + +I hold for like 15 min, authorization was granted. My refund should be reflect in 7-14 days. +Like the title says, I have been at my company 10 years. They are restructuring my team and a bunch of us have been offered a severance package, or given a deadline to find a new role within the company within 2 months. I was a little shocked by the news but I understand this kind of thing happens in large companies. + +The severance for me would be in the low six figures. In order to qualify I need to stay at the company 2 more months, and can only start a new job after my termination date. I'm nervous about being unemployed and finding a new job because it has been 10 years since I have done that and I don't know how marketable my skills are. At the same time the severance package is attractive. + +I am confident I will be able to find a new role internally in my company, this is the safer option for sure. + +Other info: I am 35, currently single and renting, I have enough savings to potentially last me 5-6 years but I don't want to live off those for more than a month or two. + +I am curious what others would do in my position, or if anyone has been through a similar issue. + +EDIT: Wow this got way more comments than I expected. I read a bunch I will read them all. + +A few more details as people are asking. I am in the US and the company is doing well overall but my particular team is just restructuring, there's dozens of folks impacted by this. We are getting some support for internal moves. + +I am leaning towards taking the money as most people suggest. I'm VERY risk averse in life so the uncertainty scares me but I am definitely underpaid so could probably find a better job in the same industry. I am going to work on my CV the next few days and start applying to some places. + +&#x200B; +Hi UKPF + +I was wondering if anyone had any tips or advice that could help me. + +I have a really unhealthy relationship with money. I am obsessed with saving and investing to the point i feel so guilty even spending on little things like lunch or netflix. + +For context im 22 earning 25k in my full time role and 9k in my side hustle. I live in blackpool so expenses are generally quite low and i tend to put around 600 into savings each month from my full time role (my side hustle i reinvest all profits atm) but i still worry and get stressed over saving. + +I admit this is a very privileged position to be in but im just looking for some advice and if others have struggled with this. + + +Edit - thankyou everyone for the help and advice, will try to implement it into my savings strategies. + +Edit 2 - main takeaway for anyway who feels the same as me is life is short, be reasonable in your savings strategies but also be sure to do the things you love and make memories before it's too late +Ballstreetwets whole front page is filled with yolo options and I fucking love it !!!! I know I know (no options) but this isn’t fud or trying to make anyone to buy options. THERE IS MORE THAN ONE WAY TO SKIN A CAT AND WE ARE GOING TO SKIN THIS BABY EVERY FUCKING WAY !!!! I myself am a one year holder and have xxx shares in DRS along with some calls I dabble with. + + +HEDGIES r FUKT !!!! Always have been and now with the autists in the fight and FOMO I believe this January run up will be much much higher ! We apes are much more wrinkly and have converted into some diamond handed motherfuckers ! + +Fuck you Mayo boy! Tendies are back on the menu. + + +WE RIDE AT DAWN MOTHERFUCKERS ! Buckle up 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +There is a post about C L N E on WSB that got linked here and this is the pinned mod comment from zjz: + +"People are piling in here from a link on another sub. They're leaving shitty comments and being nuisances. This is called brigading. Brigading is considered a dick move on Reddit and is something wallstreetbets does not do because it's against site-wide rules. + +9/10 of the angry comments in this thread are from another community that thinks a stock is going to 10,000,000 a share. Brigading can get your sub in trouble. Don't do it. I'm going to report all of the users involved to reddit admins even though I usually just ignore it because this is egregious. + +Maybe this is a pump and dump, maybe it's not. Maybe Citadel owns some of it because they like money, maybe they don't. It doesn't matter what your reasoning for following a link here to be a jerk is. Don't brigade us." + +I hate WSB and Citadel and Pump n Dumps but I also want us to be smart and protect our sub. Apes, please think before you comment. + + +This is not financial advice. And any use of "we", "us", or "our" is in the sense of the Royal "We" and the fact that this sub is indeed an open community. + +Gme to the moon. + +Edit: Because this post gained more traction than I expected, I just want to make it clear that I never intended for this post to be FUD, although it may be construed that way. Also, I personally believe most apes know better, but whether it be apes or shills or just the WSB narrative, I want everyone to just be aware of zjz comment and be careful when crost posting from other subs, and be mindful when commenting in other subs. + +This is an amazing community and I would hate for them to have ANY excuse to try to shut it down. + +With all that being said, fuck the drama, fuck the noise, just Buy, Hodl, and Buckle Up. I'll see you all on the moon. + +/Edit. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I saw someone posting here earlier today about what to do if BTC gets to some high value and they want to sell some. Most of the responses were straight up uninformed and silly dogshit. + +You can look at my post history - I sold in 2017, on Coinbase, and moved 100% of the money (1.6M after I dumped my BCH) into my Bank of America account. + +1. My account was not frozen +2. My account was not closed +3. Nothing happened except they wanted me to open a brokerage account with them +4. I asked before I moved the money what to expect. They said "did you get the money illegally? Because that's all we care about." + +So any of these gloom-and-doom edgelord crypton00bs who think the FBI is crawling around looking for people who make 10k on bitcoin and try to cashout are just full of it. + +Don't want trouble? Pay your taxes and ride off into the sunset. Want to get ripped off by shady mofos? Sneak around and try to use some sketch-ass exchange for $200 at a time over several months and hope they don't freeze your account for "reasons". + +Hope this helps. Normally I just stay quiet, but the misinformation on this was so huge and stupid, I had to chime in. + +Lastly - if you don't believe me READ MY POST HISTORY - you will see the consistency of my message. So either I'm telling the truth, or I'm repeating the same lie (for what? internet points?) consistently for the last 2 years - you decide. + +HODL what you can, but use your gainz to lock in the life you want! I sure did. + +*Edit: Lots of peeps are missing the point here. It's not about Coinbase. It's about moving your money after you cash out. I've seen so many uninformed peeps saying "your bank won't let you do X" or "no bank will allow Y" and I'm telling you that's just not true. One thing tho - if you do shady shit (gambling, bad KYC, whatever) and Coinbase sees that, you will have a bad time. Just like if you lied to your bank. The govt does not mess around when it comes to basic citizen level money laundering / tax evasion / gambling and Coinbase will act accordingly to cover their own asses. +$KODI is the next generation of BNB auto-redistribution tokens. Not only will $KODI provide its holders the luxury of earning passive income (BNB) by simply holding KODIAK tokens, they’re bringing the first ever Entertainment Hub to the BSC network! + +🎙 **Entertainment Hub** + +The BETA launch will include a 24/7 Radio which will be bringing you everything entertainment such as podcasts, music, and much more! This will provide an eventual revenue stream that will directly benefit $KODI holders down the road. + +##Tokenomics Breakdown + +💰 **Max supply**: 100 billion + +💠 **Tax Fee**: 13% + +♻️ **BNB Redistribution**: 7% of all transactions have BNB auto-redistributed to $KODI holders. Auto-claimed every 60 minutes + +🔐 **LP Allocation**: 3% of all transactions go to liquidity pool + +💎 **Sell Fee**: 3% extra to all sells with 2% to the BNB dividend pool and 1% to LP + +🐳 **Anti whale/dump lock**: Sells are restricted to less than 0.1% of the total supply + +📱 **Marketing and Development**: 3% tax goes to a separate marketing BNB pool. A marketing wallet with 5% of the total supply will also collect BNB. + +🕹 **Sweep Widget**: the SweepWidget tool will be used to hold contests to give all TG members a fair chance at earning a spot on the presale. + + +##Token Launch + +📟 **DXSale Presale** 📟 + +**Details**: + +Thursday August 12th, 2021: 16:00 EST + +🔰 **Soft cap**: 300 BNB + +🔰 **Hard cap**: 450 BNB + +KODIAK is going to launch on DXSale Network using their new whitelist feature to help minimize the use of bots. This will help more dedicated members get into the presale and further ensure the projects success! + +KODIAK token is a place where all crypto enthusiasts bear-long! + +🔥 Come join the TG for your chance to earn a spot on the whitelisted presale! SweepWidget will be used for competitions to give all members a fair chance at earning their spot! Launches August 13th, 2021! + + +——-Additional Links———- + +🌐 **Website**: https://kodiaktoken.com + +📬 **Telegram**: https://t.me/kodiaktoken + +🐦 **Twitter**: https://twitter.com/KodiakToken?s=20 + +📸 **Instagram**: https://instagram.com/kodiaktoken?utm_medium=copy_link +Netflix reported 208 million global subscribers as of the end of the first quarter, missing its own prediction for 210 million. + + +The streaming giant did beat financial targets, though with earnings per share of $3.75 coming in well ahead of Wall Street analysts’ expectations. Revenue of $7.16 billion also topped the Street. + + +The subscriber shortfall, which caused the stock to drop more than 10% in after-hours trading, was blamed on issues related to the coronavirus. Simply put, the pandemic gaveth, but also taketh away. “We believe paid membership growth slowed due to the big Covid-19 pull forward in 2020 and a lighter content slate in the first half of this year, due to Covid-19 production delays,” the company said in its quarterly letter to shareholders. “We continue to anticipate a strong second half with the return of new seasons of some of our biggest hits and an exciting film lineup.” + + +Net cash from operations surged to $777 million in the quarter from $260 million and free cash flow of $692 million was up from $162 million. Netflix confirmed a key metric — that it’s on track to free cash flow break even this year and doesn’t need outside financing anymore to fund day-to-day business. That was a milestone affirmed in the company’s January report, and only reaffirmed the bull thesis as the entire entertainment business continues its shift to streaming. + +&nbsp; + +Continues here - https://deadline.com/2021/04/netflix-misses-q1-subscriber-targets-first-quarter-2021-covid-19-streaming-1234739802/ +Netflix lost 430,000 subscribers in the US and Canada in the second quarter and issued weaker than expected forecasts for later in the year, rekindling investor doubts over how the streaming group will fare after the economic reopening. + +The California-based company predicted it would add 3.5m subscribers in the third quarter, disappointing investors who were looking for a stronger rebound in the second half of the year. Analysts had forecast that Netflix would add 5.9m subscribers during the third quarter. + +In the past year and a half, Disney, Apple, WarnerMedia, Comcast and others have launched streaming platforms, and there are more than 100 streaming services for consumers to choose from, according to data company Ampere. + + https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/07/netflix-bleeds-subscribers-in-us-and-canada-with-no-sign-of-recovery/?amp=1 +If you feel comfortable with posting details, successes and failures, etc., that's fine, but it really isn't what I'm asking - just "time in the markets" so to speak. No judgment intended by the question. I'll make none based on length of time investing and would suggest no one else does either. Everyone with experience in anything, investing or anything else, started out from scratch. I'm Just asking so all can get a sense of the general experience levels here. + +I'll start. I've been investing since the early 80s, but I had a bit of head start as I was born into two families (maternal and paternal) of experienced investors. EDIT: I'm based in the US. + +EDIT TO ADD: I'm not actually new to Reddit. I had another handle for years and "reset" to clear out all the old, outdated stuff. Nothing sketchy or bad, just old and a couple of the 3-4 subs I did participate in are dead now with all sorts of dead ends/deletes. + +2nd EDIT: I failed to ask in the OP "poll" - if you are comfortable doing so, state where you based, in as general terms as you wish. Personal nitpick - please don't say "American" unless you actually mean "somewhere/anywhere on the North or South American continents." + +3rd EDIT: I'm humbled. An unknown poster asks a question and gets a lot of reasonable responses that should help everyone understand the demos of the sub. Lots to read, lots to review, and all helpful. Nice. + +4th EDIT: Please don't downvote honest replies, even smartassed ones. Just IMO, but everyone is entitled to their opinion and as long as it is within a WIDE degree of reasonable, it should be considered and respected. So far, since it was my "poll," I've read every response and I don't see a single thing that should be downvoted - we've got young investors looking for help and more experienced investors sharing experiences. Professors Graham and Dodd would be pleased and might have had some snark, such that they would allow (and Graham certainly), of their own. +Literally look at any other country’s financial sub and you will see the same people saying house prices are unsustainable and have been bearish for the last two decades as they become more and more prices out of the market. + +I think the fact that this phenomenon occurs in completely different countries/economies just shows the reality- property close to desirable cities will always be valuable. + +House prices aren’t going down anything soon because the same people saying there’s gonna be a crash will be the same people ‘buying the dip’ to prop it right back up again. + +UK: https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/comments/qgf6vv/trying_to_get_a_family_home_within_the_next_5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +Canda: https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/s3roqj/housing_prices_in_canada_to_keep_rising_through/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +NZ: https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/sfr17o/is_anyone_else_feeling_down_like_really_really/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +Europe in general: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/s3plkw/rents_up_by_16_house_prices_by_39_since_2010/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf +I've always been thinking of owning real estate since it is a great way to build wealth, but given how things are going right now, I'm starting to have second thoughts. Considering how unstable the market is right now, spending money on things like this is not exactly the best course of action. Due to the fact that real estate is so expensive, I don’t think I can necessarily afford that right now. + +But I really want to get into real estate investing, but in a way where I won't have to buy actual property. I am pretty new to this so I don’t really have any idea on how to start. Is there something similar to real estate? Or are there any indexes that track real estate in some way that I might invest in? +I hope this is the right sub! I moved into a new rental house on February 7th. The landlord said that he keeps the water bill in his name and provides up bills to pay him, he then pays the water company. We gave him a $300 water deposit ahead of moving in (in addition to our security deposit). Yesterday, February 26, we come home from work to find a note from the utility and our water shut off. We call the landlord immediately and he is super apologetic and gets us buckets of tap water to use to flush the toilet. My husband, myself, and my infant daughter got ready and off to work/daycare with no running water. Landlord called the utility and they said it will be back on within 24 hours meaning I don't know if there will be running water when I get home or not. My landlord has not offered or brought up a discount AT ALL! Only apologizing over and over again. Is it fair for me to push for a month's free water? I know it was only one day but I had dirty dished, I couldn't cook dinner, couldn't shower or bathe my child for work. Even washing my hands was a pain in the ass. + + +TL;DR: Water got shut off for a day (maybe 2 days) because landlord didn't pay bill. What kind of discount/reimbursement should I request? + + +EDIT/UPDATE: Thank you everyone for the feedback! My take away is that, yes, a month's free water is way too much to ask (darn!). My intention is to ask for the days without water removed from the rent bill. I pay $2300 in rent so accounting for 28 days in the month, that would $82 for each day (or I could calculate 30 days). I want to add- I am on great terms with my landlord and will always strive to be a good tenant. Even though I am upset (because I had a sink full of dishes and a washer full of baby clothes, and I can now smell myself at my desk due to no shower, I'm a pumping mom so my pump stuff smelled like sour milk this morning and I had to wash it in the office sink), I wouldn't express this to him that way - always professional & kind. We plan to live in this home for 3-5 years so I don't want to negatively impact that in any way. + +2ND EDIT: I should add that $82 or $164 (will find out when I get home tonight) will be at least equal to or greater than one month water bill, ha! +Here is the satelitte- https://www.datascoutpro.com/Map/Index?gisId=512577586 +i bought this on a whim and it was relatively cheap. It is tax lien, and parcel was delinquent since 2016- seems like unused land from builder since the last sold shows 750,000 which is unrealistically high for my area. There is also an IRS lien on it. +What are my options? +Own the deed and put up a for sale sign? open to ideas +Price paid $200; Yearly taxes $7. +I am loving the suggestion so far, yes it was impulsive for me to do this so keep the criticism come- Lot of interesting thoughts and views! +Suppose you achieve FIRE at 35. Most likely you will spend the next few years travelling around the world. Eventually, you will get tired of travelling around and will decide to settle in one place. + +What's next? What are you planning to do for the rest of your life? +So I've noticed some questions popping up about investing in monthly stocks, my idea behind that is never to invest based on payment frequency. Most people have the goal of living off there dividends later in life and question, why should I get quarterly paying stocks when I need to live on a month to month bases. The answer to this is pretty simple, invest in companies that pay on diffrent frequencies. By owning 3 - 4 companies you can make a "monthly" paying portfolio compared to a single stock that pays monthly. Its better to chase the quality companies over the payment frequency and you can also be more diverse. This is something I wish i knew starting off and I hope it helps others get a better insite. +Hey everyone, + +I have been with Coinbase since 2016/17 and today my account was hacked and emptied of its entirety. My son mentioned I should come on this forum to see if anyone has a way to get Coinbase to respond to me. It's my life savings for my wife and I and for our kids...I am just getting auto responses from Coinbase and not sure where to go from here for justice. Prayers needed. + +Paul Z + +PS - If anyone has a connection to support at Coinbase, any direction in that area would be much appreciated! +# New US Crypto Regulation Far More Invasive Than We Thought + +**US Congress intends to regulate crypto on a level far deeper than currently understood―They will:** + +&#x200B; + +* Designate Bitcoin, Ether, and their hard-forks as commodities and regulate their transactions accordingly; +* Create legal uncertainty for all other crypto projects and ICOs by allowing them to be labeled as securities; +* Ban the use of (unauthorized) stablecoins; +* Introduce penalties for the use of mixers and privacy coins; +* Rebrand smart-contracts that take longer than 24 hours to deliver as futures contracts and regulate them accordingly; +* Re-define legal tender and change the way money is created by the Federal Reserve; and authorize the issuing of a digital USD of which all transactions are recorded; +* Introduce foreign regulations into US law for all virtual asset service providers in the US (and with US clients). This would not be done to then never use it. + +&#x200B; + +**In short: Congress wants to bring crypto-currencies under full oversight and control.** + +These new regulations introduce massive regulatory burdens on existing projects, ban and criminalize current normal activities, restrain innovation and free enterprise, and even introduce a transparent central bank digital digital currency that redefines money as we know it! + +According to United States representative Don Beyer, congress should incorporate “digital assets into existing financial regulatory structures.”(1) As you will see, they intend to do just that. + +And it will change the way things are done for crypto forever… + +&#x200B; + +## <What This Post Is About_ + +This post provides an overview of the crypto legislation currently (September 2021) being put through US congress. + +It does not just look at the proposed bills, but rather at the wide range of laws that are to be amended. + +Once all the puzzle pieces are put together, the big picture reveals shockingly strict regulations of crypto and a complete overhaul of the idea of “money.” This could have serious effects not only on the crypto sector, but also on the financial system as a whole. + +Behind the excuses of preventing money laundering and ensuring investor protection, the use of crypto is transformed in something it was not supposed to be. Especially delicate is the fact that part of this legislation is drafted outside the US. + +***Disclaimer***\*: This report provides a high-level overview of the US laws that are to be introduced/amended by two new bills. Its depth is limited by the inadequate knowledge of the author of the large body of US law involved, and given that these bills are subject to amendments and have not even passed into law yet, none of this information can be considered legal or financial advice.\* + +&#x200B; + +## <What Is Going On? + +On April 06, 2021, a “must pass” bill was introduced called the “Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act”(2) (“Infrastructure Bill”). It passed in the House of Representatives and, after fierce debate, the Senate. Hidden in this bill, an amendment to the Internal Revenue Code was added. It introduced new reporting requirements and obligations for record keeping. + +While this bill created a lot of public outcry, more recently, a real game-changing bill was introduced in the House on July 28, 2021, namely the: “Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act” (3) (“Digital Asset Bill”). + +This bill proposes amendments to the Federal Reserve Act, the Bank Secrecy Act, Securities Exchanges Acts, and the Commodity Exchange Act. It changes the definition of legal tender, and it introduces international crypto regulation into US law. + +This article looks at each of these amendments… + +&#x200B; + +## <Commodities or Securities?_ + +The main take-away is that two different bodies of law will apply to crypto projects: commodities and securities laws. So far, only Bitcoin, Ether, and their hard-forks are confirmed to be commodities (see below). All other cryptos are subject to future guidance by market regulators: + +*“Not later than 150 days after the date of the enactment of this section, the SEC and CFTC shall jointly publish, for purposes of a 60-day public comment period, a proposed rulemaking that classifies each of the major digital assets.* + +***Not later than 270 days after the date of the enactment of this Act***\*, the SEC and CFTC shall jointly publish a final rule that classifies\* ***each of the top 25 major digital assets*** *by (i) highest market capitalization and (ii) highest daily average trading volume as—* + +*(1) a digital asset; or(2) a digital asset security.”* (4) + +&#x200B; + +## Interpretation: + +* Cryptos will be subject to two different regulatory regimes: commodities and security regulations. +* Services engaged with both digital assets (commodities) and digital asset securities (securities) could be subjected to both regulatory regimes. + +&#x200B; + +## <Commodities Regulation_ + +The Commodity Exchange Act regulates the trading of commodity futures in the United States. Passed in 1936, it has been amended several times since then.(5) It provides federal regulation of all commodities and futures trading activities and requires all futures and commodity options to be traded on organized exchanges. + +In 1974, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) was created to oversee the market. With certain exceptions, the CFTC has been granted exclusive jurisdiction over commodity futures, options, and all other derivatives that fall within the definition of a swap. Certain cryptos will be regulated as commodities. + +&#x200B; + +## Definition of “Commodity” Amended to Include Digital Asset: + +First and foremost, Section 1a of the Commodity Exchange Act on definitions will be amended to read as follows: + +*“****The term “commodity” means*** *wheat, cotton, rice, corn, oats, barley, rye, flaxseed, grain sorghums, mill feeds, butter, eggs, Solanum tuberosum (Irish potatoes), wool, wool tops, fats and oils (including lard, tallow, cottonseed oil, peanut oil, soybean oil, and all other fats and oils), cottonseed meal, cottonseed, peanuts, soybeans, soybean meal, livestock, livestock products,* ***digital asset (including Bitcoin, Ether, and their hardforks)****, and frozen concentrated orange juice, and all other goods and articles, except onions (as provided by section 13–1 of this title) and motion picture box office receipts (or any index, measure, value, or data related to such receipts), and all services, rights, and interests (except motion picture box office receipts, or any index, measure, value or data related to such receipts) in which contracts for future delivery are presently or in the future dealt in.”*(6) + +&#x200B; + +## Digital Asset Definition + +Next, the end of Section 1a of the Commodity Exchange Act will be amended by adding a clarification of what a digital asset is (7)(definition to long to post here) + +&#x200B; + +## Smart Contracts with Delivery Time of More than 24 hours are Futures Contracts + +A sharpening of the definition of retail commodity transactions could decrease the options for the use of smart contracts outside of regulated exchanges. + +Currently, Section 2(c)(2)(D)(i) of the Commodity Exchange Act prohibits persons that are not *“eligible contract participants”* or *“eligible commercial entities”* to engage in agreements, contract or transactions in commodities on leverage, margin, or financed by the offeror, the counterparty, or a person acting in concert with the offeror or counterparty on a similar basis.(8) + +Next, additional amendments mentioned in the SEC. 202 of the Digital Asset Bill applies this on transactions done by smart contract of which the delivery takes longer than 24 hours: + +*“(ii)  Exceptions* + +*(III) a contract of sale that–* + +*(cc) with respect to* ***digital assets***\*, results in\* ***actual delivery*** *(including transfer of control over private keys) n****ot later than 24 hours after the transaction is entered into*** *and such delivery is accomplished by either-* + +*(AA) recording the transaction on the public distributed ledger for the digital asset; or* + +*(BB) with respect to digital which are not recorded on a public distributed ledger for the digital asset, reporting the transaction to a CFTC registered digital asset trade repository; or”* (9) + +&#x200B; + +## Dodd-Frank Act and Market Transparency + +After the 2008 financial crisis, the Dodd-Frank Act introduced strict regulations for swaps. Naturally, these will also apply to digital assets as well. + +The definition of swaps, as provided by the Commodity Exchange Act (section 1a(47)) is broad. For example, it could refer to any “agreement, contract or transaction” that “provides for any purchase, sale, payment, or delivery that is dependent on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence.” (10) + +## Next, the Dodd-Frank bill authorizes the CFTC to: + +* Regulate swap dealers by installing capital and margin requirements, require dealers to meet robust business conduct standards, and meet recordkeeping and reporting requirements. +* Increase transparency and improve pricing in the derivatives marketplace by requiring standardized derivatives to be traded on regulated exchanges or swap execution facilities and bring better pricing to the market place and lower costs for businesses and consumers. +* Lower risk to the American public by moving standardized derivatives to central clearinghouses.(11) + +&#x200B; + +## Digital Asset Trade Repository + +To meet the above mentioned market transparency requirement, the Commodity Exchange Act stipulates the need for a digital asset trade repository to collect information on SWAPS in order to provide the public with the correct market information: + +*“The term ‘digital asset trade repository’ means any person that collects and maintains information or records with respect to transactions or positions in, or the terms and conditions of, contracts of sale of digital assets in interstate commerce entered into by third parties (both on chain public distributed ledger transactions as well as off chain transactions) for the purpose of providing a centralized recordkeeping facility for any digital asset, but does not include a private or public distributed ledger or the operator of either such ledger unless such private or public distributed ledger or operator seeks to aggregate/include ‘off chain’ transactions as well.”* (12) + +&#x200B; + +## Interpretation Commodities Regulations: + +* As of writing, only BTC and Ether (and their hard-forks) will be confirmed as commodities. All other cryptos could potentially be regulated as securities (what this means is explained next). +* The fact that novel technologies such as Bitcoin and Ether are to be subjected to a large body of law that developed around the trading of livestock and frozen concentrated orange juice could spell regulatory uncertainty for various business models in the industry. +* No “trading on margin” is allowed outside regulated entities, unless done by high-level investors called “eligible contract parties.” This could perhaps frustrate particular ideas about decentralized finance or OTC markets. +* Smart contracts that take longer than 24 hours to deliver could be considered futures contracts under the jurisdiction of the CFTC. That smart contracts can be labeled as futures contracts appears indeed to be the opinion of the CFTC.(13) + +&#x200B; + +## <Securities Regulations_ + +In the US, securities are regulated by the 1933 Securities Act. Additionally, the 1934 Securities Exchange Act further regulates the trade of securities, and established the SEC to oversee these markets. + +## Definition of “Security” Amended to Include Digital Asset Security: + +First and foremost, Section 3(a)(10) of the Securities Exchange Act will be amended to include a “digital asset security” (and exclude “digital assets”) in the definition of security: + +*“(10)* ***The term “security” means*** *any note, stock, treasury stock, security future, security-based swap, bond, debenture, certificate of interest or participation in any profit-sharing agreement or in any oil, gas, or other mineral royalty or lease, any collateral-trust certificate, preorganization certificate or subscription, transferable share, investment contract,* ***digital asset security***\*, voting-trust certificate, certificate of deposit for a security, any put, call, straddle, option, or privilege on any security, certificate of deposit, or group or index of securities (including any interest therein or based on the value thereof), or any put, call, straddle, option, or privilege entered into on a national securities exchange relating to foreign currency, or in general, any instrument commonly known as a “security”; or any certificate of interest or participation in, temporary or interim certificate for, receipt for, or warrant or right to subscribe to or purchase, any of the foregoing;\* ***but shall not include any fiat currency, commodity, digital asset***\*, or any note, draft, bill of exchange, or banker’s acceptance which has a maturity at the time of issuance of not exceeding nine months, exclusive of days of grace, or any renewal thereof the maturity of which is likewise limited.”\* (14) + +## Digital Asset Security Definition + +Next, the Digital Asset Bill (SEC. 101) defines what a digital asset security will be: + +*“(A) IN GENERAL.—The term ‘digital asset security’ means a digital asset that:* + +*(i) Provides the holder of the digital asset with any of the following rights:* + +*(I) Equity or debt interest in the issuer.* + +*(II) Right to profits, interest, or dividend payments from the issuer.* + +*(III) Voting rights in the major corporate actions (which shall not include new block creations, hardforks, or protocol changes related to the digital asset) of the issuer.* + +*(IV) Liquidation rights in the event of the issuer’s liquidation.* + +*(ii) In the case of an issuer with a service, goods, or platform that is not wholly operational at the time of issuing such digital asset, with respect to* ***any fundraising or capital formation activity (including initial coin offerings***\*) which is accomplished through the issuance of such a digital asset, issues such digital asset to a holder in return for money (including other digital assets) to fund the development of the proposed service, goods, or platform of the issuer.”\* (15) + +&#x200B; + +## What does it mean to be regulated as a security? + +Investing in securities in the US is regulated to: + +*“protect interstate commerce, the national credit, the Federal taxing power, to protect and make more effective the national banking system and Federal Reserve System, and to insure the maintenance of fair and honest markets in such transactions.”* (16) + +Regulations focus on both the issuing of securities (primary market), and subsequent trade of such securities (secondary market). + +The goal of securities laws is firstly to require issuers to fully disclose all material information that an investor would need in order to make up his or her mind about the potential investment. A regulated company must create a registration statement, which includes a prospectus, with copious amounts of information about the security, the company, the business, including audited financial statements. + +Next, the subsequent selling and trading in these securities is regulated, by restricting trade to market places over which the regulator has oversight. The Security Exchange Act section §78l(a) states: + +*“It shall be unlawful for any member, broker, or dealer to effect any transaction in any security (other than an exempted security) on a national securities exchange unless a registration is effective as to such security for such exchange in accordance with the provisions of this chapter and the rules and regulations thereunder.”* (17) + +&#x200B; + +## Summary of Securities Regulations: + +* Crypto projects will need to be regulated and provide clear financial information for investors to make an informed decision. +* Trading of securities will generally take place on regulated exchanges. +* Any new fundraising or capital formation activity (including ICOs) are likely to be securities. +* When a crypto is regulated as a security, the entire coin is subject to strict regulations. In the case of commodities, only specific use cases (futures) are regulated. It is a big difference. +* US Congress is taking a leap of faith. It needs identifiable persons to enforce a law upon. Who is going to be held accountable in a decentralized network? Many issuing companies have handed control over to network participants. Perhaps for this reason, Section 12(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 will be amended to allow the issuer to apply for “desecuritization.” (18) The question remains: who will apply for desecuritization once a network is decentralized? The investors? Weren’t they the ones supposed to be protected in the first place? + +&#x200B; + +## <Changing the Nature of Money_ + +These regulations are not just about crypto. It is clearly part of a wider discussion on the future of money. As shown below, this bill not only changes the definition of money in the US, but also changes how money is created! + +As a first, in Section 5312(a)(3)(B) of title 31, US Code (Money and Finance) digital assets are included as a monetary instrument.(19) However, Section 5103, of title 31, US Code will be amended to specifically exclude digital assets and digital asset securities as legal tender.(20) And finally, it is determined that digital assets and digital asset securities will not be covered by Federal Deposit Insurance (FDIC or NCUA).(21) + +&#x200B; + +## Introducing the Digital USD (or Central Bank Digital Currency/CBDC) + +After slamming the door on digital assets to be used as lawful money, the Federal Reserve Act is amended to provide the Federal Reserve Board with far reaching new powers; section 11 will be amended to say: + +*“(d) To supervise and regulate through the Secretary of the Treasury the issue and retirement of Federal Reserve notes (****both physical and digital****), except for the cancellation and destruction, and accounting with respect to such cancellation and destruction, of notes unfit for circulation, and to prescribe rules and regulations (****including appropriate technology****) under which such notes may be delivered by the Secretary of the Treasury to the Federal Reserve agents applying therefor.”* (22) + +In addition, Federal Reserve notes will in the future also be issued digitally; an amendment to section 16 confirms this: + +*“Federal reserve notes, to be issued at the discretion of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for the purpose of making advances to Federal reserve banks through the Federal reserve agents as hereinafter set forth and for no other purpose, are authorized. Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is* ***authorized to issue digital versions of Federal reserve notes in addition*** *to current physical Federal reserve notes. Further, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, after consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, is* ***authorized to use distributed ledger technology for the creation, distribution and*** ***recordation of all transactions*** *involving digital Federal reserve notes. The said notes shall be obligations of the United States and shall be considered legal tender and shall be receivable by all national and member banks and Federal reserve banks and for all taxes, customs, and other public dues. They shall be redeemed in lawful money on demand at the Treasury Department of the United States, in the city of Washington, District of Columbia, or at any Federal Reserve bank.”* (23) + +&#x200B; + +## Interpretations on the Future of Money: + +* The door is shut for the use of cryptos as legal tender. +* The Federal Reserve Board is to be authorized to create and distribute a ledger-based Federal reserve note that could be used for everyday transactions in USD. +* Digital federal reserve notes will make the “recordation” of all transactions possible. Did they use this word because “monitoring all transactions” would be too obvious? Recording all transactions without anyone looking at them makes no sense. +* These amendments significantly increase the power of the Federal Reserve. Contrary to what is widely understood, the Fed does not “print money.” It can only manage the money supply indirectly.(24) The private sector “creates” most of what we use as money by issuing credit. It is with the supply of credit by the private banks that the monetary supply is inflated. Conversely, with the reduced demand for credit, the money supply deflates. The Fed is not as powerful as it wants the market to believe, and the Federal Reserve Act restricts a lot of its actions. This amendment, however, could drastically expand the authority of the Fed, by allowing them to create and distribute a “digital USD” directly. It could change the entire structure of the financial system and potentially have far reaching consequences. +* The original idea behind the Federal Reserve was for private bank deposits to be combined to provide an emergency line of credit in times of economic stress.(25) But if the Digital Dollar is based on a blockchain, how can it also be based on reserves? And what mechanism will determine how funds (and how much) are added to the economy? And where and how will they be distributed? What about privacy and security? Will all this authority be handed over to a board of seven unelected bureaucrats? This amendment has the potential to change the way the Federal Reserve operates. This deserves a wider discussion by economists and financial experts outside the crypto-space as well. + +&#x200B; + +## <International FATF Crypto Regulation Introduced in the US_ + +Those paying attention to international anti-money laundering legislation know that the following sections from the Digital Asset Bill originate from guidance issued by the FATF (Financial Action Task Force). FATF is an intra-governmental organization [creating financial legislation](https://decentralizedlegalsystem.com/fatf-bitcoin-regulations-summary/). + +In March, the Paris based FATF issued draft guidance(26) (“FATF Guidance”) on a number of topics. And even though this guidance hasn’t been finalized, there are already a number of points directly included in the Digital Asset Bill. + +&#x200B; + +## Banning the use of Stablecoins + +Subchapter I of chapter 51 of subtitle IV of title 31, United States Code, department of treasury regulation, will be amended, to read as follows: + +*“(a) IN GENERAL.—Beginning on the date of the enactment of this section,* ***no person may issue, use, or permit to be used a digital asset fiat-based stablecoin*** *that is not approved by the Secretary of the Treasury under subsection (b).”*(27) + +&#x200B; + +## Criminalizing the use of privacy coins and anonymizing services (mixers, coinjoins) + +The bank secrecy act is going to be amended to sanction the use of anonymity-enhanced convertible virtual currencies and anonymizing services.(28) It is worth noting that willful violations of the bank secrecy act could give rise to a fine of not more than $250,000, or imprisoned for not more than five years, or both.(29) + +&#x200B; + +## Introduction of the term Virtual Asset Service Provide (VASP) into US Law + +Next, the term Virtual Asset will be introduced into Section 5312(a) of title 31, United States Code. A Virtual Asset can be a digital asset, or *“a digital representation of value that can be digitally traded, or transferred, and can be used for payment or investment purposes;”*(30) + +So far we have seen a number of definitions. To understand their relationship, the following image was made based on the definition of Virtual Asset according to Section 5312(a) of title 31, United States Code:(31) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/buzs5az1dro71.png?width=502&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b1726f091d09a7749d85d8e44af6ea8f5e45b7d + +&#x200B; + +Virtual Asset is a broad definition; it covers most activities involving cryptos. We can see in the Digital Asset Bill that entities that are facilitating transactions in Virtual Assets are to be called “virtual asset service providers,” or VASPS. Sec 301 of the Digital Asset Bill defines a VASP: + +*“(A) means a person who—* + +*(i) exchanges between digital asset and fiat currencies* + +*(ii) exchanges between digital assets;* + +*(iii) transfers of digital assets;* + +*(iv) is responsible for the custody, safekeeping of a digital asset or an instrument that enables control over a digital asset;* + +*(v) issues or has the authority to redeem a digital asset; and* + +*(vi) provides financial services related to the offer or sale of a digital asset by a person who issues such digital asset; and* + +*(B) does not include any person who—* + +*(i) obtains a digital asset to purchase goods or services for themself;* + +*(ii) provides communication service or network access services used by a money transmitter; or* + +*(iii) develops, creates, or disseminates software designed to be used to issue a digital asset or facilitate financial activities associated with a digital asset.”* (32) + +This definition comes directly from the FATF Guidance, with the only difference being that the US excludes the exchange between different forms of one virtual assets. On the other hand, section (v) is a new addition. + +&#x200B; + +## The Big Picture: Global Regulation + +The logic behind this seems to be to first introduce a high-level definition (including coins regulated as commodities, securities, and everything in between). Next, any future global restrictions on the wider crypto-space can be applied at this level. + +From the latest FATF Guidance, a number of possible additional restrictions can already be deducted. Things to look out for are the restriction of the use of “unhosted wallets,” the introduction of the “travel rule,” labeling those who engage in peer-to-peer transactions as a risk, and a whole host of other measures. (33) + +One additional aspect of VASP regulation mentioned in the FATF Guidance is also included in the Digital Asset Bill; VASPS engaged in services which are available in the United States and to United States persons, have to be regulated in the United States, even if the provider is located outside the United States. (34) + +## Interpretation International Regulation in the US: + +* International AML legislation, created by Paris-based FATF, is being introduced in the US. +* The FATF term “virtual asset service provider” (VASP) is introduced in the US. The definition is so broad that it covers practically all crypto projects. +* After first being in the FATF Guidance, the banning of stablecoins and anonymity-enhanced cryptos and the obligation for VASPs to be licensed in the country of their clients are included in the Digital Asset Bill. +* It is not hard to imagine that other restrictions for cryptos currently discussed by FATF, such as the travel rule and restricting unhosted wallets, will be introduced next. This is not a regulation you introduce to then never use. +* All VASPs with operating in the US or with US clients need to be regulated in the US. + +&#x200B; + +## <Amendments in the Infrastructure Bill_ + +Last August saw public outcry over the US Infrastructure bill. It included a section on IRS reporting for crypto. Some highlights: + +## Clarification of Definition of Broker + +It makes sense that the tax authorities use a wide definition to cover all possible economic activities in crypto. Section 80603 of the Infrastructure Bill amendments the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, provides that brokers need to report the activity of their clients to the IRS and adds the following to the definition of broker: + +*“(D) any person who (for consideration) is responsible for regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person.”* (35) + +## Reporting of Digital Assets + +In addition, a unique wide definition of digital assets is added: + +*“any digital representation of value which is recorded on a cryptographically secured distributed ledger or any similar technology as specified by the Secretary.”* (36) + +## Effective Date + +Effective after December 31, 2023. + +&#x200B; + +## Interpretation Infrastructure Bill + +Commotion about this bill was mainly due to the wide definitions used, which could cover all activities in the crypto space, including mining. In response, according to an article on Bloomberg, the U.S. treasury will shortly issue additional guidance, along the lines of the following: + +*“Other firms key to the nearly $2 trillion crypto market — from developers and miners to hardware and software providers — won’t have any new requirements, so long as they don’t also act as brokers, according to a Treasury official”* (37) + +At a glance, it appears that this bill is not as invasive as originally feared. It would also be impossible to enforce this legislation on miners due to the nature of the technology. + +In this case perhaps it would have been better if clear definitions were used of what is, and isn’t included. Moreover, comments from “anonymous sources at the treasury” do not provide real regulatory clarity. This industry too easily accepts the opinions of officials as decree. But we are all, including officials, subject to the law. Given that officials change over time, opinions and guidance are not the way forward; clear laws are needed. + +# <Sources_ + +I added all 37 footnotes here, but the post become to long to post. For those who wish to check the footnotes, they can be found here: + +[https://decentralizedlegalsystem.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Review-US-Digital-Asset-Regulation-September-2021.pdf](https://decentralizedlegalsystem.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Review-US-Digital-Asset-Regulation-September-2021.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +Infrastructure Bill, [https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/) + +Digital Asset Bill, [https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4741/](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4741/) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# <TL;DR_ + +**Next to the infrastructure bill, a new bill was introduced in US Congress: the “Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act.” It is not law yet, could still be amended, and if it ever comes into effect it will likely not be this year/cycle. What it says:** + +**Bitcoin, Ether, and their hard-forks, are to be regulated as commodities. Smart-contracts taking longer to deliver than 24 hours are considered futures contracts and regulated as such.** + +**Every other project and future ICO is potentially a security; guidance will be issued by CFTC/SEC. Issuers of securities are likely required to provide transparency and financial information to investors. Trade is generally restricted to regulated exchanges.** + +**In addition, international anti-money laundering legislation is introduced in the US; (unauthorized) Stablecoins, privacycoins, and mixers are to be prohibited. The high-level term VASP is introduced for almost all crypto projects, possibly to facilitate more future regulations.** + +**Finally, the Federal Reserve gets shocking new powers to create and distribute a central bank digital currency (CBDC), of which all transactions are recorded.** + +&#x200B; + +Edit 1: added links to the two bills + +Edit 2: added "(unauthorized)" to tld + +Edit 3: Folks concerned should focus on the bill’s sponsor Rep. Don Beyer of Virginia, as well as the leaders, members and official feeds (website, Twitter, etc) of the committees involved. + +I know this isn’t r/relationship_advice but I am really struggling to deal with my partner in this housing market. She literally doesn’t care how much we have to pay to buy a place. I am struggling to get excited about paying $800k for a 2 bedroom villa in a small town. This is causing huge fights between us when she wants to big an extremely high amount and I want to wait for the next place. + +Anyone else dealing with this, the whole thing is making me feel sick to my stomach. +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/coca-cola-pauses-advertising-on-all-social-media-platforms-globally.html + +Coca Cola on Friday announced it will be pausing advertising on all social media globally. + +The company clarified it was not joining the official boycott, but said “we are pausing” advertising. +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. Please keep ALL conversations contained to Gamestop and related topics. + +**Not enough karma?** Here's a [**quick guide**](https://zapier.com/blog/how-to-get-karma-on-reddit/) on how to get it. + +# [announcements](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/announcements) + +* Make sure to check the Announcements regularly. 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Only 11 days old, just 600 holders and with an mcap 8x times bigger than yesterday.** They were audited today with great results and are waiting for a full listing on CMC. + +**Amazing community, devs really active:** [**https://t.me/kilimanjaro\_community**](https://t.me/kilimanjaro_community) + +**🔒Rug proof:** + +* [Audit by Solidity Shield](https://kilimanjaro.finance/documentation/audit.pdf) +* [Liquidity Locked by Unicrypt](https://unicrypt.network/amm/pancake/pair/0x6d38bc32c9bc4b3193f13ee03cee739a3edd3aea) +* [Dev and Marketing tokens locked by team.finance](https://team.finance/view-coin/0x865d0c78d08BD6e5f0db6BCbF36d3F8EB4ad48F8?name=KilimanjaroToken&symbol=KILI) + +**💵 Purchase on Pancake Swap:** [**https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x865d0c78d08bd6e5f0db6bcbf36d3f8eb4ad48f8**](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x865d0c78d08bd6e5f0db6bcbf36d3f8eb4ad48f8) + +Lottery token that applies a **5% tax to each transaction**. + +2.5% is automatically burned - 2.5% goes into the lottery pool + +Cool winner selection process. Get more info and look at their awesome website [http://kilimanjaro.finance](http://kilimanjaro.finance/) +I have only read motley fool's articles so far. So I thought it would be good to put in my email to get updates/news or whatnot. But now I'm receiving atleast 5emails per day asking me to enroll for the subscription. Just unsubscribed now , I hope I don't get anymore of these. +Hey guys + +Just thought it would be nice if we can all chip in regarding things we should check and questions we should ask when buying an apartment. I myself am a first home buyer and I know there's quite a few of us in the exact same scenario - so I just thought it will be nice if we can help each other out. + +As more posts come in, I'll edit the OP so it becomes a mega list of sorts. + +*Questions to ask* + +* How old is the apartment? +* Why is the seller selling? +* How long has the seller had the apartment for? +* Does this apartment have shared walls - if so, which ones? \[knock on those walls to see how thick they are\] +* What is the rental return? +* Who mainly lives in this apartment block (rentals or owners)? +* Does this apartment have NBN? +* What are the quarterly water/strata fees? (high strata fees can indicate there's something that needs fixing and/or the apartment has a lot of expensive amenities - e.g. indoor pool, lifts) +* Is there a strata report I can access/buy? +* What is the sinking fund (if the amount is too high, what has strata not been doing?; if its too low, will we get hit with extra fees by strata? +* Are you allowed to keep pets? + +*Things to look out for* + +* New paint (potential indication previous owner is trying to hide mould) +* Mould/cracks in walls etc. +* Which direction most of the windows are facing - I heard North was ideal in terms of sun exposure +* Water pressure from taps/age of piping etc. +* Train/traffic sounds (if you can hear them, try to figure out when it start/stops) +* Air con (some apartments don't have them and you have to apply to strata) +* Car park - how big is your car space? + +*Things to get checked* + +* Get someone in to check for pests/building or structural defects +* Price of similar units sold in the nearby area +* Body corporate minutes (shows if there are special levies etc.) + Yes I posted this in a daily thread but I wanted it to have a place where people could more easily clown on me for being bearish on Australian Tesla: + +Firstly, half of the hyperlinks in the VUL reports do not work and are not properly referenced. I cannot fact check half of their information, and this is basic uni stuff. Absolutely disgraceful from a company full of PHDs and world class government representatives as they say.. + +Secondly I don't support this short company, nor do I have an interest in shorting vul. This is purely an exercise in analysis + +Anyway here are some thoughts: + +First issue: Failure to clear names: + +They failed to truly answer the questions about their managements past failures. They listed all the fancy industry bodies Dr Kreuter is part of without actually answering anything about his capabilities as a leader of a company and his past projects. Listing his Linkin profile does nothing to address concerns have his ability to run a successful project or address his past failures. + +They also say that Weimann has been part of many projects and served as a consultant for gec-co without again actually listing any project successes. + +They do not even attempt to clear co-founder Wedin name at all. This entire section does nothing for their reputations and in my opinion makes them weaker because they had nothing to say to make themself look better outside of their academic titles and positions in government/industry bodies. Many of my university teachers had similar titles and positions I would not trust them to run a 1.5billion dollar company. They state they do not have a "record of failure" without listing a single success other than their academic qualifications. + +The acquisition of the PFS firms: + +They blatantly state they acquired the firms after the PFS for "strategic reasons." This implies a pre-meditated decision to use these firms and then buy them out afterwards. This again does nothing to disprove J-capital were correct in saying there was an underlying conflict of interest the entire time. Also, they try to lead readers to independent experts who they have ties with such as leading the cap raise so more conflict of interest on biased reports. + +Flow rates: + +Vulcan was careful to state their "assumptions" are "believed" to be correct based on team experience and science. Now I am inclined to not go against Vulcan here as I am a clown who knows nothing of how far modern technology has come but they do make a big reference to the world bank report which is not actually directly from the world bank but from the International Finance Corporation, which is a member of the world bank, but I believe they stated world bank for the validity. + +From this report they cherry picked data and sentences without context saying things like it found that “78% of verified wells were successful”. WELL, the official full quote is + +"Of those wells analysed, 68 percent were deemed to be successful and 20 percent unsuccessful. The status of the remainder (12 percent) could not be verified. Of those wells for which status could be verified, 78 percent were successful." + +This means that Vulcan are taking the high road with these numbers assuming a 10% increase in success discounting the unverified results which could have lowered that result. + +That report VUL is quoting from also has great quotes like "The probability of a well being successful increases in accordance with the number of wells drilled in a field" and VUL have made a statements in their response to the effect of "we have not drilled any geothermal wells, into our greenfields developments areas, and until we do so, we have already stated on numerous occasions risks around flow rate will remain.” + +However, this is followed with Vulcan saying it believes it has an “APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE around its assumptions" going on to say that "one would expect Vulcan, based on this world bank report to have high success rates" + +So VUL with no evidence, with the highest risk part of the process, in a greenfield exploration using the highest percentages in the report are saying they are EXECPTING the highest success rates further saying a 40% failure rate is "incorrectly arbitrary.” This is poor, work from VUL here they are misleading investors on assumptions of high success and saying much leaving little room for error in and to quote the report “This analysis suggests that once a project moves beyond the early Exploration Phase, the risks of failure become lower and more predictable.” VUL has no reason to assume highest success chance yet. + +Furthermore the research goes on to say, “In 63 percent of fields, more than 50 percent of wells proved successful in the Exploration Phase. **This low average success rate across exploration wells serves to confirm the high risks of initial drilling**" + +This paper confirms that a high degree of scepticism and risk in the initial exploration phase is warranted. In fact, the world bank report specifically calls out the risks at this stage of development! Vulcan are in my opinion not properly broadcasting the risks in this stage and I would be very worried if they are truly running of the lowest failure calculations. + +Furthermore, Vulcan in my opinion does little to address the concerns of seismic activity but again I'm not a geo so I won't comment on this. + +Finally and I say this many times. + +Vulcan is request 700mill euro for phase 1 and 1.1 billion euro for phase 2. The combined equivalent of 20 CXO operations. They done nothing to address the listed capital concerns from J-Capital or the concerns that this prohibits the project from getting off the ground. + +This is 1.8billion euro or 2.78 billion Australian dollars. Assuming no cost overruns assuming a capital raise at $10 a share they would need to issue 278million new shares which nearly triple the shares on issue. from 123,834,613 to a total 401million shares. That is a dilution so severe your $10 shares would be worth around $3.5. + +Otherwise, they have to convince a bank to offer them a loan for a mine thats not yet built, thats not producing revenue potentially for years. If they can convince a bank to do this math is simple. + +2.78 billion Australian at an estimated 5% (current interest rates are around 3% but I would assume the risk would mark that up and inflation is going up too) is $139million AUD in interest a year not including paying back principle meaning VUL would likely lost over 50%+ of its NPAT per year. + +A mix of both leaves holders diluted and with reduced earnings. Offtake partners IMO unlikely to splash that much cash without significant upside. I do not think J-Capital is wrong in raising the CAPEX as a substantial risk the success of the project that was again not raised at all in Vulcans response. + +Vulcans response was better this time but still complete devoid of any meaningful retort to most of J-Capitals answers and have not earned my confidence. However I am not a financial adviser this is not financial advise. Please do your own research when making investment decisions. + + +[CXO down one end VUL down the other. How Many CXO can you fit in a VUL?](https://preview.redd.it/1vrkk6gkt6w71.png?width=1059&format=png&auto=webp&s=f71eea67424b567f725b8572038175b8ab3e637d) + +References: + +Allen, M., Avato, P.A., Gehringer, M., GeothermEx, Harding-Newman, T., Levin, J.N., Loksha, V., Meng, Z., Moin, S., Morrow, J.W., Oduolowu, A., Pantelias, A., & Sanyal, S.K. (2013). '*Success of geothermal wells : a global study.'* NW, Washington. International Finance Corporation. Date accessed: 28/10/21. Accessed from. [IFC Report Hyperlink](https://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/22970ec7-d846-47c3-a9f5-e4a65873bd3b/ifc-drilling-success-report-final.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=jYlcyTW) +It's good to be back, although the circumstances could be better for the old SP. Honestly even though my new wife wasn't super excited about me tracking the shares on my honeymoon, the fact is we were in a sequence of lower lows and lower highs. For anyone whose played this game for a while you know that means a break out to the bottom is coming. This definitely isn't the end of the road if you're not a spastic, though we are now in what the speccy miner gang would call the orphan period. + +If you're looking for a reasonable explanation as to the tank, well it's a combination of a few things. The downtrend was completely natural off 4 bagging since the start of the year. This cool off while a bit tilting was never off the cards. What really kicked us in the dick was some 9c options that got converted and sold, triggering a cascading stop loss from people who had set it to 30c. + +Is there a silver lining here? Realistically, no. Unless you're looking at picking up more shares in which case now is a phenomenal time to do so, for long holders and bag holders our true moon shot is still a year + off, so the macro movements right now are of little to no concequence. + +I look forward to doing more updates as news progresses. I'm poor as shit now because weddings be expensive yo, but as the year progresses (especially mid June and July when we have A LOT of options expiring) I'm definitely looking to continue building a position. + +For all the other cunts on here getting prolapsed by red dildos, make sure you're taking a break from looking when the market shits the bed, if you did your DD and have conviction, just hang out. As old mate buffet said "buy the company, not the share price". Slap that asx. + +Anyway, I missed you smooth brain apes. + +💎 👌🔥🔋 +Been lurking here a long time, this is a great sub and I want to thank everyone for their questions and answers. If there is anything I can do to help someone else, please feel free to reply with a question. + +&#x200B; + +I was surprised at how many people came up to me at work when they found out I wasn't leaving for another job, curious about how I'm doing it, asking how did we come to that decision, telling me how miserable they are and wish they could do the same...I think I made more than a few converts today! + +&#x200B; + +(Of course there was plenty of "you're gonna be so bored" too...makes me sad to hear people think like that.) + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Some requests for details so here goes. Guesses below are wrong - not real estate or tech. and Im in the boston area not SF. (BTW i didnt count the house in my numbers, to me it doesnt help unless/until we sell). Went to med school, practiced for a while, got burnt out, got a job in pharma, turns out was pretty good at it. But grew to hate the corporate BS, the commute, and wanted to spend my time the way I want to spend it. We didnt live like paupers, but were relatively frugal and saved our asses off -- \~75% post-tax. Put every extra dollar towards the mortgage, the kids college funds , and retirement. We did not, and I cant emphasize this enough, worry at all about keeping up with the Joneses. We have the smallest house out of everyone we know, a normal kitchen with normal appliances, we buy our cars with cash and drive them into the ground, no summer home in the cape (I know this sounds crazy but a vacation home is like a standard thing around here). When i got a bonus, it all went to house or savings. + +&#x200B; + +I tracked our spending every month on a homemade spreadsheet, not to the penny, but the general categories. Didnt have a budget, per se, but I kept an eye on things, and like i said we werent big spenders anyway so didnt have a need to put controls on ourselves. + +Also tracked my investments monthly, and after some early attempts at "diversification" eventually wised up and put everything into S&P500 index funds (except for a small portion into a tax-free bond fund). Took advantage of everything my company offered: ESPP, 401K match, deferrred comp, etc. Eventually it reached a number i liked, and some events at work made me decide the time was right. + Pumping DOGE is not the same as GME. Billionaire hedge funds do not have short positions, or rather any position in DOGE. Y'all just playing each other. Seems like many crypto holders dont actually understand the nuance of the GME situation. You are not beating billionares you are just circle jerking each other. Some of you will win and some will lose. Better off investing in ETH/DeFi or BTC that is meant to take the power away from the current system. Nothing against DOGE, but if you really want to stick it to the Man put your money towards something that will build a better future for the people. +As the title suggests, curious as to what peoples plays are? I’ve currently left mine untouched but I’m getting slightly apprehensive of what’s to come. + +I’m trying my best not to read too much about current markets as it seems to be quite negative. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) Last ban length: 131072 days + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) +Snippet: Mr. Culp, who was CEO for the last three months of the year, received compensation valued at $15.4 million, including a salary of $625,000 and a bonus of $937,500. For 2019, his base salary is $2.5 million with a target bonus of $3.75 million and performance-based share awards worth $15 million. +More: + +GE Says Two Longest-Serving Directors Are Leaving (WSJ) + +[https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-says-two-longest-serving-directors-are-leaving-11552075672](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-says-two-longest-serving-directors-are-leaving-11552075672?mod=itp_wsj&mod=&mod=djemITP_h) +My shitty memes can wait. + +u/dlauer. Great work advocating for free and fair practices of the market. And to Stewbeef, who has always stood by and for the common man. + +Thank you both for your sacrifices in trying to preserve the ever compromised integrity of our freedoms. Your bravery has inspired me to take action beyond simple shitposts… + +I am ready. + +Ready to defend the freedoms of fair markets. +Ready to defend the freedoms of our children. +Ready to defend the freedoms of the common man. +Ready to defend the freedoms of my country. + +I’m officially drafting myself u/pizza-adventure for use on the frontline of this revolution. It’s time to lift the efforts of this community up, once more, and highlight the injustices that occur rabidly beneath our feet, on a regular basis. + +Any resources that would help get the right type of information where it needs to be would be of great help. Direction on the quality of the narrative that we’re trying to establish would be extremely helpful in kicking things off as well. + +This has to end and solidarity through action is where it begins. + +My inbox is open… + +SALUTE SOLDIERS 🚀 + +🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍 +Apes, I come to you as a fellow primate with excellent news: my wife finally left me. Now I have her boyfriend all to myself. + +Before I reading, I just want to express that predictions and dates should not be taken as absolute and that these are just my opinions on what COULD be coming. I am also well aware that correlation does not equal causation and that these correlations could be coincidences, so please don't comment that, these are just my thoughts based on research that I've done. I've done many posts on GME and these are all my personal opinions based on my research, so do not take them as fact. This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor. + +There's been an onslaught of news regarding GME in the past few weeks and days, and I believe that there is more to come and that because of that the squeeze is inevitable and in the near future. + +**The news:** + +\- Amazon + Chewey Execs being appointed + +\- RC being named god of the board + +\- GME announcing the search for new C.E.O. + +\- GME paying off senior notes (today) + +\- The announcement of GME's right/intention to sell 3.5M shares or $1B in value (this may not seem important but I'll explain why it's crucial later) + +\- The announcement of the definitive date for the annual meeting (6/9 lmao) + +**Why it matters:** + +The past two weeks have been bombarded with news from GME, and almost all of it deals with leadership or the transformation. I believe that this bombardment of news is extremely intentional. The reason that I believe this is because of their announcement of the right to sell those shares. When GME made this announcement, the stock was at $190. GME knew full and well that anytime an announcement like this happens, the market would react negatively to the stock, and, because GME is so volatile and the victim of abusive shorting, that negative reaction could've been huge. Despite knowing this, they decided not to sell at that moment. I deduce from that lack of action that GME believes that the stock will go WELL ABOVE that $190 level sometime in the future because if they really wanted to capture the value of the stock at $190, they would've just sold the shares instead of reserving the right to do so. With that being said, I believe that they are actively trying to set up the stock for a massive run that could potentially trigger a squeeze so that they can capitalize on a price that is well above $190. If this wasn't their plan, then it made zero sense that they didn't just sell at $190 knowing that the announcement would tank the stock, which it did. Finally, when almost every analyst (boomers) says that GME is grossly overvalued, it is irresponsible of you as a corporation not to take advantage of that extremely elevated share price unless.... you have reason to believe that it will soon be substantially higher. Therefore, I believe that the recent slew of announcements is their attempt to make that happen and that we should see more announcements in the near future because they are probably well aware that being lax about this could lead to decreased interest in the stock. + +To add to this, GME has repeatedly warned in their S.E.C. filings that suspect shorting activity on the stock could cause it to squeeze (they have said this twice since the original squeeze). This, to me, seems that they are covering themselves so that they can't get sued for market manipulation if it does indeed squeeze. What's even more interesting about this is that maybe they have data that is not available to apes and other primates that suggests that the shorting activity is even more abusive than any of us thought (again just a theory). + +**Catalyst** + +But what could the next announcement be? It's very difficult to actually know. The paying off of the senior notes caught me by surprise but isn't news that would actually propel the stock to the stratosphere. I believe that their next catalyst will be something about either the C.E.O. position or the digital transformation. GME could very well announce Cohen as the C.E.O., which would undoubtedly send the stock to the stratosphere. They could also announce something about an acquisition or something related to their shift to e-commerce. Again, this is simply conjecture, but I believe that GME is going to make some kind of catalyst announcement soon to push up the price. However, the biggest and most crucial catalyst could be a share recall. First, I want to stress that GME itself cannot recall shares, only individual investors can do that. If only there was an investor with a ton of shares in GME who has an active interest in making the stock go higher and has tweeted cryptic messages about hating shorts and bears... oh wait. If Cohen or another whale with a high stake in GME announces a share recall, that could be the ultimate catalyst for us. Or, if the hiring of a new executive/board member requires a vote, an activist could do what Hestia did last year and recommend that all shareholders recall their shares (see my previous DD on that). + +Personally, I thought that the Cohen news would propel us to the moon, but I guess not. Maybe that shows more proof that shorts are in really deep. + +**Timing** + +The timing on the possible above-mentioned catalyst could not be more perfect. First, our lord and savior Mr. Gill's calls expire this Friday. At the same time, GME is forming what many are calling the mother of all wedges on extremely low volume (pictured below). The apex of the wedge should be this Thursday or Friday but could get pushed back to sometime next week if we still trade sideways. As many of you know, the options volume for this Friday is also through the roof as most of GME's monthly options are. What I'm hoping for is that GME announces some kind of catalyst in the coming week that will make a whale who is not invested in GME think "wow the stock is consolidating in this giant wedge pattern and is relatively cheap... time for some chaos." Finally, we have the 4/20 (lmao) deadline for shares to be recalled ahead of the annual meeting. I have trouble believing that GME is not going to do something before that deadline to trigger a price jump because, as I said previously, they have a vested interest in getting this above $190. + +Here's the mother of all wedges that is actually forming with the mother of all cup and handles (yeah I know the cup and handle might be a stretch): + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/c58px0bui0t61.png?width=1428&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cf2c498feccf05e468d3dc2c0d7fb570923a02b + +Finally, I also said in a previous post that GME is correlated extremely closely to the VIX. Many have said that it is inversely correlated with SPY, which seems to be true, but it is even more directly correlated with the VIX. This leads me to believe that GME does not move when the market is bad, but GME moves when the market is volatile (which usually happens when the market is bad). And, oh would you look at that, SPY is at $412 and is overbought and the VIX is at $16 (pre-pandemic levels). Looks like the market is thirsty for some nice volatility. For more on this, I encourage you to read "the everything short" post, which provides a much more in-depth analysis of how the market could crash and how GME relates to that. + +Here are the charts. The first one is VIX and the second is SPY (both are the purple lines), as you can see, the VIX lines up extremely similarly with GME and SPY seems to be inverse to GME. This shows that GME does best when conditions are volatile or that GME creates volatile market conditions. As stated previously, the market is very overbought right now and there is very little volatility, so GME may soon be primed to change that or benefit from a change. The thing to get from this is that, based on GME's relationship to SPY and VIX, this is another indication that GME is in the perfect position to have a breakout as SPY is overbought and VIX is extremely low: + +https://preview.redd.it/92blf0gxm0t61.png?width=1950&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9bd5bff8b3b6656ff1fda7c1a5336e59a596509 + +https://preview.redd.it/3tedvwfxm0t61.png?width=1948&format=png&auto=webp&s=952f917d613ad7007e60c5ef47a1636a8829fd60 + +**Quick Note on Short interest** + +Just wanted to give my thoughts on the GME short interest. As you all know there are tons of different numbers on GME short interest. Most boomer websites say it's anywhere between 19%-50% which is still extremely high. Most apes say that it's over 100% at minimum. I personally believe that websites are correct because the data is being altered through ETF shorting, naked shorting, and synthetic longs (see other posts for more on this). Therefore, I believe that the true short interest is over 100%. It makes no sense that GME's borrow rate on iborrowdesk is below 2% with short interest being able 20% and available shares getting to below 100 at one point today. Also, based purely on logic, it doesn't make sense that if every boomer analyst thinks GME is grossly overvalued that they wouldn't short it, so there is no way that GME's short interest is anything below 50%. Therefore, I believe that they are indeed abusively shorting it but are using the above tactics in order to manipulate the data so that the true short interest isn't shown so that regulators and the media don't start getting suspicious. + +**Conclusion** + +So, we have technicals lining up very nicely, a company with a vested interest in seeing the stock soar right now, a plethora of potential catalysts, a definitive date for when shares would need to be recalled, abusive shorting, a failure to deliver cycle, an insanely volatile stock that loves good news, a market that is thirsty for some volatility, and oh year one more thing.... some damn primates that refuse to sell. Stay strong, apes. +Using data pulled from [maximum pain dot com](http://maximum-pain.com/options/GME) on today's option chain, there were: + +36,316 calls that expired OTM with strike prices from $107 to $170 + +24,025 calls that expired OTM with strike prices from $172.50 to $250 + +That's 60,341 calls that went kaput with prices that might have seemed reasonable if you chose to follow the options push around here when GME's price was riding between \~ $170 and $240 in September, October, and November. Hell, even December, too, if you went shorter term. + +Another 26,053 calls expired OTM with strike prices from $260 to $480 (GME's highest historical price). + +Another 90,338 calls expired OTM with strike prices from $490 to $950, just for the record. + +Meanwhile, if you bought shares either directly through Computershare or a broker and then DRS'd them, nothing expired. You have real shares, in your name, that no one can touch, and since the price is wrong and you're not going to sell them until you can name your price, how much you bought them for is essentially irrelevant. Their value is tied to the idiosyncratic risk of GameStop, and therefore at this point, priceless. + +They are going to throw every kind of fuckery at us possible to try to stop MOASS from happening. Diamond Hands isn't about holding through dips, it's about being immune to the total and complete asshattery that the entire system is going to try to drop on us to shake loose shares from those who cannot stomach it. This includes screwing with the options chain, draining money from people via premiums, stopping you from buying real shares, and instead counting on you gambling on the idea of turning a little money into a lot of shares. + +Here's a better idea - let's all turn our little shares, no matter how many you have - X holders to XXXX holders - into a LOT of fucking money. Let's lock the float and END the fuckery. + +Buy. HODL. DRS. Shop Gamestop. +Hello everyone! I’ve been a long-time lurker here since I discovered FIRE back in 2014, but I’ve rarely posted. I hit $1 million earlier this year, and I wanted to share my story and hopefully exchange some valuable insights with you. It has taken me a while to work up the courage to share, but here goes. I’ll try to keep it fairly short and simple, although I apologize in advance for the long Background section, and I’ll follow up with more details as they come up in the discussion. + + +***TL;DR: I’m 34, single, watch collector, no children (and don’t plan on having any if I can help it). My NW reached ~$1 million at the end of August 2020. I increased my liquid net worth from zero to $850,000 in 6.5 years, and I aim to reach my FI number of $2.5 million by age 41. I don’t hate my job, but I do hate that it keeps me from staying fit and active, so the sooner I become FI the better. Look at my charts. Ask me questions or for more charts. Thank you for reading!*** + + +**Background** + +I grew up middle class in a developing country (Middle East) as an only child. I was privileged to have parents who were more than willing to forego most pleasures in life—including travel, nicer cars, etc.—and to instead spend every penny they had to make sure I received the best education possible. They put me in a private American school and paid for my college education, but they also were not the absolute savviest with money. + +My health and education came first for my parents, but what came a very close second was every little whim and desire I had as a child—they spoiled me. They almost never invested, and instead spent all their extra money on whatever clothes, computers, videogames, music CDs, cameras or extra pocket money I wanted as a teenager. They found it very hard to say no to me. Because of this I grew up not knowing or appreciating the value of money, and by the time they (involuntarily) retired in their 50s they had virtually no savings. + +What’s done is done, right? By the time I woke up to all this in 2013, I was 26 years old and armed with a pretty good education, but I hadn’t exactly been all that successful since graduating in 2008. I had gotten my CPA back in 2009 and was working at a public accounting firm making a measly $12,000/year (yes, that low, because developing country). + +I hated my job, mainly because of the people I worked with, but I won’t get into that in any great detail. There was just a big gap between the way I had learned to work in a private/American education and the way I had to work ‘out in the real world’. I also had not been promoted in several years because I was seen by my peers and supervisors as a poor team player. + +**Anyway, in early 2014, everything changed!** Thanks to the way my education and career start looked on paper—and thanks to LinkedIn Premium which I was (and still am) paying $30/month for—I was headhunted for a financial controller position in an east African country. This of course meant leaving my family, my city and my friends, and starting all over. To me this was all very new and scary, but it was almost a complete no-brainer. The move was to propel me from $12,000/year to $75,000/year + all the benefits that come with an expat position. + +One thing that made it even easier for me to work abroad was my U.S. citizenship, which I got from my father’s side of my family. Anyway, I packed everything that mattered to me in a few suitcases and got on a one-way flight. My liquid net worth was negative at the time; I had $25,000 worth of credit card debt, plus more owed to my parents. I paid it all off within a few months of moving, but my parents later refused to let me pay them back what they’d contributed for an apartment back in my hometown. The apartment cost about $115,0000 and they’d paid for half of it. I still own it. + +Since I made that move in 2014, I have made two more moves to other countries, and I’ve grown to quite enjoy my job and responsibilities. I’ve been promoted three times, and each promotion or move has come with a salary bump. I am now a CFO and my income has steadily climbed from the $75,000 in 2014 to $110,000 now in 2020. In addition to that, I get a ~30% performance-based bonus, and a 6% retirement benefit, plus company-paid housing, furniture, utilities, car, gas, internet, phone, house help, gardener, and two flight tickets home per year. + +I’m fairly happy with how I’ve done over the past 6 years, but I look back and I still think to myself: What if I hadn’t been so spoiled? What if I’d learned the value of money earlier in life? What if I’d saved my money and started investing at the age of 21 instead of 27? Where would I be now? + + +**Current financial position** + +I have an insane Excel spread sheet I’ve been developing and using for the last 6 years. I track every dollar I make or spend, every stock I buy, and hundreds of metrics. I do it religiously, and it’s made it very easy to pull numbers out to share with you guys. + +In [this chart](https://imgur.com/a/tUgIRIN), my total net worth over time is in orange, and my liquid net worth is in black. The green line is my stock portfolio. + +[This table](https://imgur.com/ny564mj) breaks down my current net worth near the end of 2020 and each of the previous 6 years. I’ve kept things pretty simple and my stocks are split between two individual accounts with two brokerages—there’s no 401k or IRA of any kind. As a U.S. citizen with no home base in the U.S., I get to exclude much of my income under the FEIE rule, but it also means I can’t contribute anything to a tax-advantaged account. + +***EDIT: Several of you have pointed out an error I've made in the original chart and table. I erroneously included in my illiquid net worth (from 2014 to 2016) a separate property that my parents owned until 2016. I was tracking the value of that property in my spreadsheet before it was sold in 2016, but it was never a part of my own net worth and it shouldn't have made its way into the table and chart.*** + +***I've updated the [table](https://imgur.com/a/Dr2n09G) and [chart](https://imgur.com/a/KTdZoDH). Thanks for pointing out this error!*** + +These are currently my 6 largest stock positions: + +|**Stock**|**% Gain**|**Value**| +:--|--:|--:| +|**TSLA**|+411%|$ 100,400| +|**NFLX**|+43%|$ 79,800| +|**AAPL**|+51%|$ 77,000| +|**FB**|+281%|$ 61,200| +|**AMZN**|+104%|$ 48,100| +|**MSFT**|+62%|$ 39,300| + +[This chart](https://imgur.com/a/RYsIKmP) shows my income and how much of it I have spent/saved since 2014. I had a particularly low savings rate in 2016 and 2017 because in those years I pursued (and paid mostly out of pocket for) an expensive top 20 MBA degree. I find out more and more every day that this degree is (and will probably continue to be) completely useless to me, and that the ~$85,000 I spent on it would have been much better invested in the market. My CPA is what I need for my job, and my company never cared whether I got an MBA degree. + +You can also see evidence of a fair amount of lifestyle creep between 2018 and 2020 in the chart below. In some years I travelled more than others, but generally my living expenses now hover around the $25,000/year mark. + +I’ve also been very fortunate to have invested during the recent insane bull run, and [this chart](https://imgur.com/a/gNgO1wn) shows just how much it has helped my net worth over the last couple of years. + +You can see in the chart that as of now near the end of 2020, I have invested a total of $300,000 into the stock market, and my portfolio’s estimated value at 12/31/2020 is $680,600. This makes for a total return of 121%, and I’ve calculated an annualized return of over 50% based on the timings of each of my deposits into the brokerage account. + + +**The way forward** + +I feel that I’ve had a great deal of success over the past years, and I attribute most of it to a great ability to save thanks to the way my compensation has been structured and the FEIE. I do, however, recognize that the current market conditions which have allowed my net worth to climb as rapidly as I show in the table below will not necessarily last. + +|Year|Net Worth|| +:--|--:|:--| +|2014| 248,300|| +|2015| 309,400|+25%| +|2016| 252,600|-18%*| +|2017| 379,700|+50%| +|2018| 457,100|+20%| +|2019| 676,000|+48%| +|2020| 1,071,000|+58%| +**Large decrease in NW due to severe drop in Dollar value of property valued in a foreign currency which suffered severe valuation in that year.* + +I’ve calculated my FI number at $2,500,000, which I believe would allow me to live comfortably and be able to spend up to $80,000/year in today’s dollars, adjusted for inflation. Based on my current and expected future salary, as well as my expected future savings rate. I’ve also calculated that I can likely achieve my FI number at age 41. Some of my assumptions include a 49-year retirement, average inflation of 2.6%, an annual contribution to my investments of $110,000 (adjusted for inflation), pre-retirement market return of 7%, post-retirement market return of 6%, fixed income return of 5.5%, percent in equities is 110-age (so it changes every year), and annual expenses of $80,000, which decline by 2%/year after age 65. + +I guess one other thing I'm grateful for is that I'm not stuck in a loop trying (and failing) to get rich quick like I see some of my friends doing. I'm glad I'm taking the slow and steady path, and that I have the patience and discipline for it. + +I’m very happy to get into discussions and answer questions. There are many more charts, calculations and concepts I’d love to discuss and share. The only things I do not want to be asked are 1) what countries I’ve lived/worked in, and 2) what companies I’ve worked for. Thanks for understanding. + +Thank you all very much for taking the time to read my story, and I’d love to hear your comments! + +EDIT 2: Thank you to everyone who has read my post and engaged in a meaningful exchange with me. Whether we agreed or not, I appreciated the discussion. And thank you, strangers, for the wholesome awards! +I stumbled onto this interesting historical document while looking into Coca-Cola and whether they were heavily shorted in the early twentieth century, and whether naked shorting was the cause of the Great Depression. I thought I’d pull out a choice quote to share with you guys. + + “This legislation will restore confidence, will not injure legitimate business, and all it will do is restrict the gambling activities of a small group of men who have no interest in the welfare of the Nation, but who, regardless of the effect everybody knew it would have upon conditions of the country, ruthlessly manipulated the markets and brought about the conditions from which the Nation is now suffering. Had it not been for the manipulators of Wall Street, for the criminal inflation for which they were responsible and carried on in 1927, 1928, and 1929, the crash would not have occurred. The people who were responsible for the inflation of 1923 and 1929 are also the very men responsible for the crash in 1929. This legislation is absolutely necessary for the best interests of the Nation. Because not until we pass this measure will confidence be restored. All this bill aims to do is to prohibit the reckless gambling and manipulation on the exchange. I have here from an inside man a description of the stock exchange. + +He says: +1. Not one fourth of the transactions on the exchange are sales where the seller actually parts with the security, and is paid for it by the purchaser. +2. The exchange is, therefore, the largest gambling house in the world. +3. This gambling house is owned and controlled by its broker members. +4. The value of a seat on the exchange, depends upon the amount of play the game attracts. +5. Those who run the game are really the betting commissioners for the boobs who sit in the game. +6. The betting commissioners have looked in the hand of every one of the "boobs", know exactly what cards they hold, and the limit of their stakes. +7. Most important of all, they know at just what point. The " boob " has put in a stop-loss order, hence they know just when the " boob " must take his loss, when the market is forced down.” + +[Congressional Hearing April 1934](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CRECB-1934-pt7-v78/pdf/GPO-CRECB-1934-pt7-v78-11-2.pdf) + + + tldr: Naked Shorts yeah have been destroying the country and American businesses and innovation since the inception of the stock market. If we are still wondering where the sheer hubris of SHF originates, it’s likely because this has been occurring for over a century with no little to no repercussions. + +Man, it would be a shame if something really idiosyncratic came along to flip that paradigm... 🏴‍☠️ +fatFIRE friends with kids (especially young ones) where both of you are working high profile / demanding jobs - what are your secrets to success?? We have two kids under 5 and a third on the way soon and I am highly focused on how to maintain our sanity, have quality family time, be involved in our children’s education, AND not have either of us drop the ball at work. Both of us have our career accelerating (combined income ~$800k VHCOL). We have a full time nanny now and considering a second with possible coverage over the weekends when our third comes along (especially after maternity leave ends). Would love to hear how anyone in similar situations on fatFIRE have managed through this and what your best tips are or things to avoid! +As a high school senior, college prices are scaring me quite a bit. It's not abnormal for the sticker price of a liberal arts private school to exceed $70,000 per year. Even in-state public schools in my state are pushing $25k/yr. So to recent college grads with debt, was the choice you made to spend x amount of money on school worth it in retrospect? + +This is my first reddit post, ever. Please forgive me if this is the wrong place to ask this question, or if I've made a mistake in posting it. Thank you in advance! +I remember very vividly the overwhelming feeling of relief and gratitude when I logged into my Dad's brokerage account after he was suddenly disabled and saw over $2mil in investments alone. My dad was the sole earner in the family (a self employed massage therapist). He never had dreams of FIRE but he just knew to always pay with cash, put money away when you can, and invest. In his early 50's, he suffered a stroke that left him paralyzed and unable to work. The stoke was completely unexpected as he'd been a lifelong endurance athlete. After the immediate shock settled, my first concern was how he and my mother (who had never worked) could keep going. When I saw that balance, I knew we'd all be ok. I thank him for that gift every time I see him and remind him that he saved our family, even though I can't tell if he understands me or not. Because of that money, he and my mom are still able to live independently, travel to see family, and even support my sister as she goes through life. + + +&nbsp; + + + +Now I work and budget and save everyday with the hope that I can give that same security to my kids one day. I couldn't care less about RE, I just want to be the same kind of provider my dad was. His foresight prevented a bad situation from becoming a complete disaster and I'll always be thankful for that. + +&nbsp; + +Sometimes the grind of savings rates, projections, and discipline can get a little overwhelming when just thinking about quitting my job a few years early. I mean, why don't I deserve a quick trip to the Bahamas? For those days that RE just isnt enough to keep you on track, maybe this can help. I know it helps me. + + + + +I’ll be graduating this semester and am accepting an offer that is 70k base, 30k signing, and 10k in stock per year from a tech company. + +I will be maxing out my 401k every year with VOO/VTI 30/70. Being young and fairly risk tolerant, is it a bad idea to just buy and hold ARKK/ICLN 50/50 with my RIRA account and just let it ride for the next 30 years? + +Also will be saving cash for house/car down payment. + +I also have the option for a Roth 401k vs traditional. Does it make sense to go traditional for my 401k to “cover my bases” in case my income might be lower than now when I retire? + +Thanks in advance for your responses. I know I’m in a really fortunate position and want to take full advantage of this situation to set myself and my future family up in the long run. + +EDIT: thank you so much for the responses!! I just wanted to clarify that I am mainly asking about for my 401k should I go traditional or Roth? For my IRA I am 100% going Roth! +Why isn’t $SPCE dropping like a rock. Their earnings report was atrocious and shows they’re completely overvalued, it seems like they should be trading at a much lower price then they are right now. + +Edit: Well this aged like fine wine +As the title says….A lot of transactions haven’t even started to settle and brokers are furiously looking for shares across the globe…trading is stopped until the dust settles and some squeaky wheels are wondering wen moon? + +Move your expectations out. If we don’t see some positive price action in several months then I’ll start asking questions but until then, this action should be exactly what was expected… + +SHFs are fighting for their lives, this is a giant Market Maker in a corner fighting with everything they have, remember they essentially have been given freedoms to naked short by the government, and people are expecting them to go out easily. + +Refocus your expectations and realize this isn’t going to be as easy as a split dividend. There will most likely need to be other plays, like an NFT dividend a spin off company, a major acquisition, locking up the float, etc…and most importantly a profitable company, and most likely all things together for a company like Citadel to be put out of its misery. + +So realize the battle may just be starting and recalibrate your expectations. + +Buy, HODL and, Register + +💎🙌🌚🚀🦍 +Bristol Myers Squib just gave me a card that changed the cost of my prescription from $500 a month to $10 a month for 2 years... and they will renew it after that! Sorry if this is a repost but this was a literal life saver for me. +I want to share my story with the community so that it doesn’t happen to you. I will never forget how awful my experience was with Wells Fargo, and after 17 years they have lost me as a customer. + +There is a short version of my story, and a longer version for those who want all the details. + +The short version: Online scams, fraud, and identity theft are seriously on the rise in our country. It’s not only because of Covid, its because criminals are getting better at stealing our information and using card swiper inlays, hacking and fake phishing scams that look legitimate. This is the first thing you should understand as a person who does any kind of banking, with any institution. + +Last month, someone in Florida pretended to be me and took a fake check to a drive-through ATM, with my faked signature on it. She was able to take out over $1200 CASH from Wells Fargo, without an ID presumably, and definitely without my social security number. How the bank allowed her to do this, I have no idea. 24 hours later the check was identified as “unreadable” and Wells Fargo removed the amount from MY savings account, plus a $12 fee for the unsuccessful transaction. I found out very quickly since I received an email confirmation. + +I immediately filed a claim. THIS is important: most banks will refund their customers right away for Fraud of this nature, while they investigate the issue. But Wells Fargo is unique in that they do not have this policy - they will investigate the claims before they refund the money, and there is no guarantee of the outcome of their “decision.” Banks are supposed to complete the investigation after 10 days. Wells Fargo promised this, but what actually happened is they simply dropped my claim in a complete customer service mess. + +Wells Fargo lost my claim number, then when I called to follow up, they kept passing it on to different “Claim managers” like a shell game, generating a new number every single time. I spent over 10 hours on phone calls with Wells Fargo to try and get the issue resolved. Everyone I spoke to said they couldn’t help me, and would transfer me to another representative - that representative would also say they couldn’t help me, and would transfer me again. I was promised over 5 times by 5 different individuals that I would get a phone call back with an update, but that never happened. Nobody would answer the simple question of what was happening with my case. I was lied to, insulted gaslit, and avoided. I was even hung-up on. I had a little help from an in-branch visit, but even that banker ended up lying to me. + +Ultimately, I had to get an attorney involved in speaking with the bank’s executive team, and even THEN the executive team lied to us on the phone. Mysteriously after the attorney phone call, they refunded the money in my account. After that, I moved my assets to another bank and closed everything with Wells Fargo, for good. I had a theory that the fraud happened WITHIN the bank, meaning someone who works there committed white collar crime in cooperation with an identity scammer. How else could someone take out over $1200 cash without proper identification and other critical material, in a different state than where the account is based? It probably was outside fraud, but still... + +If you get scammed or become a victim of fraud - which there is a higher chance now, than ever - you want to feel like you are in good hands. You want your money to feel secure and safe. This is NOT the case with Wells Fargo, they seem to be running a skeleton crew on their customer service and they have been in the bad press for years now. + +The long version of the story - Some more details I would like to add for those who want to know how truly awful my experience was: + +When the issue first happened and I filed a claim on May 14th, I was told by someone in the executive office of customer service (you would think that would be a pretty high-up person) that I would be contacted by a Fraud specialist within 2 days, that I would receive a resolution within 10 days, and that I would receive a call from the Identity Theft team. I was also told that over the weekend, they would be working to change my bank account numbers to avoid future theft. + +NONE of those things happened. + +I had to go to a physical branch to change my bank account numbers as a precaution against future theft - at that point I wasn’t sure I would leave Wells Fargo or not. When I did this, I worked with a banker who we will call “Adam.” Adam promised to look into my claim to see if it was being worked out, I was still out over $1200 waiting for it to be returned. + +After this visit (and 10 days after the fraud) Wells Fargo called to ask me if I wanted to change my bank account numbers - HELLO, I already did this days ago, I’m not waiting so that more fraud can take place! They still did not have any information on my actual claim, and getting my money back. It had been 8 days. They said they had nothing on record for it. + +I received an email regarding the fraudulent transaction, telling me the actual branch in Jacksonville Florida where it happened - the email was a “customer service survey” to ask how I liked my experience there. HAHA, too bad it wasn’t actually me! So I called that branch in Jacksonville to tell them someone had come in there and committed fraud against my account. The banker said there was nothing he could personally do. + +I even received a physical copy of the bad check in the mail, sent to me from Wells Fargo. There it was, somebody’s forged signature and creepy handwriting on a check made out to “me.” I emailed this to the Wells Fargo fraud team, but I got no response. + +Day 10 - I decide to follow up with Adam at my branch. He calls corporate on my behalf and tells me that it looks like they have identified the fraud as being legitimate fraud and that I should get my money back in the next two days. He said “I will give you a follow up phone call tomorrow to see if they have refunded it.” He also said that if I didn’t have a refund in two days, that I should send him an email to follow up. He said over and over again what a pleasure it was to work with me, that if I need anything whatsoever, he was just an email away. He legitimately sounded happy that he had helped me out, and I really thought he had. + +Well, you guessed it: the money never came in. Adam never called to follow up, as promised. So I emailed him. He NEVER emailed back. + +Is this what CUSTOMER SERVICE means? I am sure I don’t even need to share more, but there is more, so I’m going to share it: + +I was tired of being jerked around for weeks, so I got on the phone with additional counsel to try and get some answers. We were passed on to 5 different people. One individual in the executive office, Candace, promised that she would be taking on the case from thereon out. She promised an email within 2 hours. No email from Candace as promised. + +So we called back and finally were put in touch with a Michael, who was for some reason now managing the case (I don’t understand what happened to Candace?). Michael also promised to email us with a confirmation, so we waited on the phone to make sure the email went through. + +Michael then pulled a classic: “My computer isn’t working, I’m going to have to restart my computer and end this phone call. Then I can restart everything and send you an email.” He promised to do so. + +We really wanted to believe he wasn’t lying. But after the phone call ended, we never got an email, so yes, he was lying. + +End note: There are additional injustices and unbelievable acts of incompetence that I experienced in my dealings with Wells Fargo. I understand that someone reading this might be an employee of Wells Fargo and a loyal customer. I understand that not all employees of Wells Fargo are liars, or incompetent, but unfortunately so many of the people I dealt with behaved in this manner that I cannot forgive the greater institution. + +Wells Fargo has been in the spotlight for the last several years for huge scandals involving fake bank accounts, white collar crime, fraud cases such as mine, and botched loans. They have had massive issues with their corporate culture and have a revolving door of CEO’s. Its sad, but truly I think this is the worst bank in the country and they are not the same institution as they were 17 years ago when I first opened my account. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Last year I challenged myself to invest at least $25 automatically in Tesla each week using a recurring transfer. I figured it would be a good way to build up my investment in the company while taking a manageable risk and potentially getting some market gains. Since my brokerage offered partial share investments I figured it would be a fun way to see where my money was in a year. + +After 1 year here are my results: + +Start Date: July 6, 2020 + +Initial investment: $30 (.023017 shares at 1,300.38 edit: after 5:1 split ~$260) + +July 6 2021 Investment Value: $2,546.70 + +Total Invested with Auto-Transfer: $1,300 + +Total Return: $697 (+37.64%) + +Extra periodic market buys: ~$550 + +Average Cost of entire stake: $447.40 + +Current price of Stock: 657.54 (about 150% gain since initial investment date) + +Conclusion: Although it would have been great to be able to increase my investment on each dip, having the recurring transfer helped me take advantage of the partial share feature offered by my brokerage and keep my average cost low. During the same time period SPY gained about 36% edit: however, the only way to have gained 36% would have been to have had the $1300 I invested back last July. Otherwise, with the same auto transfer method the gains would have been 17% in SPY. Still a good return but 19% lower than the higher risk TSLA investment(math below in another edit). Although it would have been nice to be able put $1300 back in July 2020 and see it more than double, because I didn't have cash on hand, I only got about 1/3 of the potential gains of holding the stock the entire time. This gamble netted more than having the money in spy, but I guess that’s the risk premium. I am happy with the results of my little experiment and plan to continue this process and add a few more dollars per week into other companies and ETF's that I feel strongly about. + +Let me know your thoughts. I know this isn't groundbreaking stuff, but it's a small look into what you can do if you are literally storing the equivalent of 3 lunch meals a week in an investment account. Obviously one side note, the biggest downside to this way of investing is that my tax lots are all over the place and if I have to sell, I have an ongoing 1 year rolling date for "long" tax rates but, I don't plan on selling any time soon, so as time goes on, that will be less of an issue. + +Edit: Forgot to add a little more context: I currently have $150 a month going into a Traditional IRA, 9% of my income going into a 457 (~350 per check 2x a month) and a bunch that goes into my public servant pension. In addition to that, I regularly put ~200-300 into various stocks and ETF's that I hold each month. Although this investment represents a small amount of what I invest and save, it was probably the most exciting thing to watch all year. + +Edit 2: this was posted as a comment but here it is here too. + +A number of people point out that the price of the s&p has gone up YOY an amount equivalent to what I earned on this investment. Now a couple disclaimers: I don’t believe that this is a viable investment option for someone to do with their whole check. But here is an apples to apples comparison (excluding dividend which wouldn’t only affect it a few bucks since we are dealing with such a small amount.) But, here is the apples to apples comparison. This is using the weekly open price on yahoo finance for a year investing $25 per week. Again not trying to say this a better investment than spy, I don’t think it is but this is apples to apples. + +https://i.imgur.com/0rG0Ol5.jpg +I started trading live in February and was up about 600 after 3 weeks, just risking pretty small lots and using my phone to trade (Oanda). Then I continued studying babypips and hopped on my computer to get improved charts, indicators, etc. and now I'm down over 500. I thought I might be overthinking it so I went back to the simplicity of my phone and instantly started gaining pips. + +&#x200B; + +Has anyone else found that becoming more simple has improved their trading? It seems like I can read and catch a trend really well on my phone with simple indicators but when I try to use fib, S/R, and chart patterns on my computer I lose more than I gain. +Kevin O Leary just lied in front of the Senate, with the whole world watching. + +Here is his testimony under oath where he said this to the question "Why did FTX fail": https://twitter.com/Benzinga/status/1603076399593844736 + +Lets get this straight - he said FTX didnt fail because of fraud, laundering user deposits into personal accounts or into their own hedge fund to make risky trades, bought expensive condos with customer deposits and just ran the most incompetent bucketshop ever possible etc, but because "Binance put FTX out of business" + +In stark contrast, the main bankruptcy professional and new FTX CEO John Ray told the House yesterday that FTX collapse was the result of old fashioned fraud. He was asked if Binance caused this, he flatly said NO. + +In the testimony to House, he was asked by Rep Gonzalez (at time 2:43:30), + +> Rep Gonzalez: One of the things in Mr. Bankman-fried's testimony that has leaked, that wasn't submitted, is he spends time talking about Binance and how Binance created a run on the bank, suggesting that, had that not occurred, FTX was solvent and would have been just fine. Prior to that episode -- is it your belief that FTX was solvent? + +> Mr. John Ray: NO + + +You can listen to the testimony here and forward to the time mentioned above. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ObdFaUL7nc&t=9795s + +Also this entire testimony of John Ray pretty much outlines how SBF was running a fraudulent shop for months. John who has now assumed control of FTX and is in an authoritative position to tell us what went wrong at FTX quite simply states the whole enterprise was a fraud. The DoJ, SEC and CFTC have already filed charges against SBF, but here we have Kevin O'Leary telling the Senate that SBF is innocent but its Binance put FTX out of business. + +Whats really dangerous is that Kevin knows this is not true, yet goes onto Senate to state lies under oath. He has worked his entire career in finance. He knows that John Ray has the best knowledge to put together what happened at FTX. He knows investigations of multiple agencies have put the blame on SBF. Yet he goes and tries to whitewash SBF's crimes. + +Kevin O'Leary is a conman, who last week even said he would continue to do business with SBF. This week SBF got arrested, yet Kevin is still lying to the Senate. He got paid $15 M to be a shill for SBF. Its a shameful joke that he was even called up to testify in this issue. Its like inviting Ted Bundy's spokesperson to the Senate so that he can whitewash his crimes. Such actions dont make Ted Bundy or SBF look any better, but it just diminishes the respect of the Senate as an institution. + +This guy deserves to be in the same cell as SBF. Every penny paid by SBF to this fraudster must be clawed back to make FTX depositors whole. +Throwaway for obvious reasons. + +My father recently passed, and I’m left with a ton of money I don’t know what to do with and am scared to lose. I searched for the windfall post that I thought was on one of the FIRE and personal finance subs, but I couldn’t find them. + +I have no idea what to do or how to handle this situation. I am terrified of being taken advantage of. I’m still grieving (particularly hard given that we haven’t been able to have a funeral or be near loved ones because of covid restrictions). + +**I Know this sub cannot offer professional advice, but you guys are far more used to these sums of money, and I am so out of my depth, any suggestions are appreciated.** + +I feel like an idiot. I knew some of this was coming but I was terrified of both the amount of money and responsibility of it all. I should have done this planning earlier along with my dad, but it’s too late now. We started to go over certain things, but neither he nor I were able to face all of it given the implications of his mortality. +I am now responsible for all of my inheritance as well as my now elderly mother’s finances and health expenses, and am completely lost. *I hate myself for not preparing more sooner.* He was ill, but his death happened suddenly and far earlier than anyone expected. + +My biggest fear is losing the security offered by the money, because aside for being responsible for my mom, I am also borderline disabled already (healthy enough that I don’t qualify for disability, but bad enough that I’m on continuous care, have had health related employment gaps, and have high risk factors for total disability in the future). + +I don’t know who to ask or where to turn to even start to make a plan for my mother or myself (single, no kids). + +Getting all the paperwork re: the death is a slow process, and I’m still working on it… between various offices being slow if not totally closed due to corvid as well as local protests, it’s taken way longer than expected (getting the death certificate alone took over two weeks). + +No one outside of the accountant, the estate lawyer and MAYBE my dad’s best friend (they sold a business they had together many years ago) have any idea how much money he had, and I intend to keep it this way. + +I grew up lower- to middle class, and while my parents earned the majority of their money after I left the house, the upgrade to their lifestyle wasn’t much/very obvious, and their habits stayed the same. My habits are the same as theirs… zero debt, live in a relatively cheap rental, and save what I can (not a high earner to begin with, but covid-unemployed). + +My mother has plenty of money, the total family net worth appears to be in the mid seven figures before life insurance kicks in. Regular household bills are sorted (car, utilities, insurance, food, credit card, etc.), no issues paying for regular expenses out of their joint accounts. + +From what I’ve gathered so far, I am expected to inherit: + +* just over 1M in life insurance to me alone (policy was worth more, but there are other beneficiaries) +* 1.8 M in a trust (800K of which is in a money market account, the rest are in a managed stock account, I will have full control of everything once the full paperwork goes through) +* A residence that is on the market, it should net around 500K once it’s sold. It was on the market while he was still alive, he had purchased and another property that is paid off in full (M-HCOL area). I hate the realtor, my father had said she was acting unprofessionally before she passed, and the listing sucks IMO, and am looking for a new one. That said, I have no idea how to pick one. +* I'm unsure about how much is in the IRA currently, but know will be divided in two, and from the little I’ve read into it, I will be required to take distribution because I’m in my 30s. +* a non-tax advantaged investment portfolio that I have no idea how much is worth (I have not been able to get any info on that yet) +* 15K in straight up cash (I have this and feel so weird about having this amount of physical currency sitting around unprotected). +* 25K expected to come in for consulting work my dad completed a few months before passing, but the company suspended payments due to Covid. I don’t even know how that’s going to happen… it’s technically owed to the LLC that I now own jointly with my mother, but IDK how to collect. + +In addition to this there is also + +* properties in our EU hometown; a duplex which is rented for for a pittance and the “family home” which is totally uninhabited (Parents planned to retire there before life got in the way). The other is a run down property on a piece of land. He had a family friend (an accountant by trade) managing all the finances, taxes, and paperwork there. I don’t know anything about handling the paperwork or the maintenance, and I cannot get back there to deal with this now anyway because of travel restrictions. I have a basic relationship with her, but she’s also in her 60s at this point, so I will have to figure out something for as well. These properties aren’t worth that much money, they are rural and the value is probably 150K *in total*. I would never want to live there again, because it’s a small town that is empty with no opportunity and many properties for sale. +* eventually, something like 500K Euro in cash + bonds (this will take years to sort out, no fucking clue where to start with that aside from going into the bank office that holds them for us). + + +The US estate lawyer who set up the will and trust, has not been very communicative with me. I’ve called his office four times and have gotten a call back once. I don’t know how much of this is due to the offices being closed to Covid and how much is him dropping the ball and me not being demanding enough. + +The accountant has been open and we've communicated a few times, but I don’t understand half of what he’s told me. It’s so much information (personal stuff, legal stuff, international stuff). I don’t even know what I’m supposed to be asking. Or how any of this inheritance affects my taxes (and if I should move my residence to my mother’s home given much lower local taxes compared to my current residence). + +I have no idea what to do about my mom’s social security… my dad worked in the US for most of his life, contributing for years, and IDK if she would qualify for anything (she is on Medicare, is a US citizen too fwiw). + +I know I do not like the Investing/money Management team they have. I want to move everything to Vanguard, because I see they are charging fees, and they have been rude to me on more than one occasion. I have a little bit of money in vanguard (an embarrassingly low amount for this sub’s usual… around 100K spread in pure investment and Roth IRA). + +Same with the banks. I get way better treatment, and get way more service having far less money at my bank than at the local bank or national bank where my parents have their accounts. + +I am looking for a job for myself right now as well but that’s not going well… aside from the money, I am concerned about having continuous and decent health insurance as well as a purpose, because it’s obvious I’m also sliding into a deep depression (yes, I am seeing someone about this, and I did bring up that I feel guilty for receiving all of this money not having earned it). + +If you’ve come this far, thank you, apologies for the typos, and I appreciate any suggestions. +If you have a good relationship, please call your parents, tell them you love them, and hug them if you are able to right now. +EDIT: Just want to give a huge thanks to all you who added really thoughtful and supportive advice. This sub can be a little intimidating, but all in all it's a very supportive and informed group. It's what the internet should be. Thanks! + +\-- + +I'm on track to hit my number in a few years. 39yrs $4.6NW. $275k salary not including bonus. I'm owed a retention bonus at the end of 2023 and 2024 of $1m each. Also a larger performance bonus that we're on track to hit at the end of 2023 but I'm not factoring it in for now. Two kids. Not in a rush to retire just yet. Might be happy coasting or doing another startup. Expenses are $170k/yr. So not a big fatty like some of you out there but on a good track. + +My step mother 71 and father 75 (divorced) have both made a bunch of money over the years but have little to show for it. I'll note she's been in the picture since I was 4 so she has been a big part of my life. Growing up I learned what not to do from them, but of course their irresponsible lifestyles and choices are coming back to roost. She is basically broke and in debt but shares a house with him that is worth at least $1m, probably more if we could fix up a few things. He doesn't want her to sell it b/c he uses it regularly. It was their second home. He basically airbnb's his main residence and then stays with her. That's his main source of income. + +They both ran a consulting business for years and she worked for him. They are waiting for their next ship to come in and that's my step mother's current plan. They are in a serious dry-spell and realistically aren't going to bring in a whole lot. I think I've convinced her at this point to get a basic secretarial job. + +At the end of the day, this is all my dad's mess. He's a narcissistic and manipulative person. He is trying to get me and my brother to support her. I am the one with the better money sense and more income and assets so you know how that goes. There are so many other gory details I've left out, net net it's not a healthy situation. + +Lastly my half sister lives with my step mother. She is 24 and has severe psychological issues that are currently preventing her from working. I don't think she could get disability. Mostly her parent's fault in not getting her the help she needs. I think with a lot of therapy and care she could be productive in a year or two. + +&#x200B; + +Ok that was super long, if you read through that all, two questions: + +1. General thoughts on supporting my step mother in this situation. After social security she has deficit 3-4k per until she gets a job. One of them is a heloc shows $50k on. $1,100 a month. I've thought of just paying that off. Her expenses are probably about $60K / year, again no income. $1800 ss. I'm sure she has crazy credit card debt. +2. My paid hourly advisor suggested long term care insurance (she makes money selling it). The general idea of it makes sense to me in this situation, but I'm sure there are some gotcha's with these plans. Curious if anyone has implemented one before and what their experiences were? Whether I support my step mom a lot now or not, I know at the end of the road, I'm going to have to step in at some point, so maybe a plan like this could serve as a backstop. + +&#x200B; + +Thanks in advance. The situation is horrible and feels good to get it off the chest a little. +57% of tech executives responding to CNBC’s Technology Executive Council survey said finding qualified employees is the biggest concern for their company right now. + +Qualified tech employees is the biggest concern for the companies right now. I do experience the same at work - there is no good people at all. + +Do you think that would cause any growth concerns for the tech industry? If yes - who's going to sufferer the most. Do you account for that in your investment portfolio? +So I came across [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rr1sma/video_42069_easter_egg_on_the/) bullish post (huge shoutout to u/Expensive-Two-8128) where the video shows an easter egg at a score of **42,069**. + +Then i remembered I had saved the html code of the runner game a few times: + +https://preview.redd.it/gn8l5b4b5i881.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f7e2987e0e5afdcc01573d005c5a510e4d24e4a + +I compared the old and the new code and found these differences: + +https://preview.redd.it/wp6dm4fb6i881.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3490b1f8aa60f32e1c62b72f718f3d70d92d7d9f + +When I saved the html code I would have never thought they would ever literally change the game, but they did! Here is the code from the index.js file: + +https://preview.redd.it/hfd8qd2t6i881.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f3b1eb1419560ffe04c07d04a947607baccfd4e + +When in doubt, you can check yourself; other apes and myself have archived [https://nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com) \[[1](https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://nft.gamestop.com)\] and [https://nft.gamestop.com/index.js](https://nft.gamestop.com/index.js) \[[2](https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://nft.gamestop.com/index.js)\] several times the last months. + +edit: For those who don't understand: The code of the runners game was changed, they have added the shown code so that starting at a score of 42,069, there is a hue shift, the runners speed is lowered and the gravity is set on 0.1, as seen on u/Expensive-Two-8128's [video](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rr1sma/video_42069_easter_egg_on_the/). + +&#x200B; + +Happy Wednesday my dudes! +A few months ago I posted on here asking for advice regarding the non-payment of my super for the entire time I was an employee even though they were including it on payslips. I had so many genuine responses so thank you so much to everyone that took the time to comment on my post. + +I went on annual leave for 3 weeks and when I returned, I was asked to meet with the HR Manager and Director to discuss a "Breach of my Contract regarding confidentiality" that had come to their attention, I obviously didn't know what they were talking about but knew what was going on. I mentioned in my original post that anyone who sticks up for themselves or looks like they might, will be bullied into quitting or made redundant.Well, I didn't get either of those options! I was terminated effective immediately for "Gross Negligence" with no payment in lieu of notice. There was at least 10 things that made my dismissal unfair so I was confident submitting a claim. A week later, I received a phone call from a lawyer engaged by the company to resolve my claim. I didn't answer but sent an email requesting all communication was to be in writing. They made a couple of attempts to scare me through email, noting that it would be in my best interest to not proceed with Fairwork, that my claim won't be successful because it's untrue, irrelevant and unsustainable and they may be open to pursuing their own civil case against me but on a "purely commercial basis" they were open to offering me a payout of what I asked for in my application, they had excluding my request for my outstanding super. When I questioned my outstanding super as part of the settlement, I was told it was a separate issue and that it will be paid through the ATO as they are currently adhering to a payment plan (as all outstanding super was supposed to be paid at the beginning of September). I called the ATO to see if they had had been adhering to the payment plan and they confirmed they hadn't and it was their last chance. I rejected this offer knowing I wasn't going to receive my super that easily. I provided a counter offer for double what I was originally asking taking into account my super. + +Anyway I recently received confirmation that they have agreed to settle with my counter offer which means I will nearly have enough to cover my super myself! I also saw during this period that ASIC had released a notice to wind up the company from the State Revenue Office so while I wanted to wrap it up as soon as possible before there was no money left which most of you said might happen. + +**tl;dr** Company didn't pay super to any employees for over 2 years, I stopped letting them tread all over me and they terminated me effectively immediately for no reason with no pay in lieu of notice. I took it to Fairwork & they engaged lawyers to try and resolve it. I stood my ground and ended up with double what I was asking for in my FWC application which is enough to cover my lost super! Happy Days! +Also the company is now being wound up so I came out on top in the end :-) + +PLEASE CHECK YOUR SUPERANNUATION FUND ALWAYS. Don't be careless like I was! +I posted this **almost 2 months ago** and folks thought I was wrong or fear mongering. Look at all the DD now and tell me I'm wrong. I wish I was wrong because this is a big deal as most of you have learned. Either way, we are going to the fucking moon and beyond!!! Enjoy your tendies when they come because you're going to be the apes who survived it and earned it for holding throughout all the bullshit so far. + +I've only edited one part of the original post where I thought the date was going to be in early April but have now removed the date because putting a date to the moon is very bad. I'll also update it with the great DD that has been uncovered which lends to my theory. If you have more, send it my way and I'll update this post. + +***ORIGINAL POST*** + +***\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_*** + +$GME will be squeezed and the market will crash. I said it and I will show you why I think it to be true. + +The stock market will crash and crash hard. $GME and retailer investors will **NOT** be the reason for it but the catalyst and where blame will be put. + +I'm not normally a "cup half empty" type of person but the evidence is there and I thought I would share. + +**The Buffet Indicator** + +Quotes from the [article](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-record-high-overvalued-stock-market-crash-2021-2-1030067388?op=1): + +\- Buffett praised his namesake gauge in a [Fortune magazine article](https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm) in 2001, calling it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment." + +In 2020, Berkshire Hathaway sold many stocks which was possibly due to the Coronavirus pandemic but as other [articles](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-prepare-2021-market-135446132.html) reveal, they are sitting on 30-35% of cash or cash like assets. + +Right now, the Buffet Indicator is signaling a [market crash](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/warning-this-warren-buffett-indicator-predicts-a-market-crash/ar-BB15r0TO). + +**Dr Michael J Burry Warning** + +He is [warning](https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1363226460979228673) and comparing the current US market to [Weimar](https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1363226460979228673) 2.0. [Weimar Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic) experienced what was called hyperinflation making the local currency nearly worthless. + +**Overvaluation of Stocks** + +This is where there are a multitude of articles such as [this,](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/16/billionaire-bond-king-gundlach-thinks-us-stocks-are-way-overvalued/?sh=637473026c91) [this,](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-market-kicks-off-2021-224137492.html) and [this](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-analysis-wildly-overvalued-outlook-time-bulls-sell-2021-1-1029945485?op=1) showing why most of the stocks are over-valued. Not just $GME but right across the board. + +**Record Low Interest Rates and Treasury Bonds** + +The interest rates are [incredibly low](https://www.forbes.com/sites/amydobson/2021/01/08/mortgage-interest-rates-slide-again-to-a-brand-new-record-low/?sh=75b54a6c60c4) and has been low for over 12 years with only a slight bump up pre-COVID. Low interest rates introduce risk to [retirement](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/with-interest-rates-near-zero-preserving-retirement-income-gets-risky.html) income. These [rates](http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/) are influenced by [treasury bonds](https://www.thebalance.com/treasury-yields-3305741#:~:text=Treasury%20yields%20are%20the%20total,of%20demand%20for%20the%20bonds). When interest in treasury [bonds](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx) go up, so do interest rates. Although the fed has stated they won't be raising interest rates, it means banks won't experience it but consumers may see a spike in [mortgage and auto](https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/12/heres-why-interest-rates-could-spike-in-2021/) rates which are not directly influenced by the fed rate. + +**SPAC Mania** + +SPACS or *Special purpose acquisition companies* are companies which have no operating assets and are used to make private companies go public. They are basically "shell" companies or "blank check" companies. SPAC's raised [more money](https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/08/investing/wall-street-market-bubble-yusko/index.html) in the first 3 weeks of 2021 than all of 2019. SPAC's have been [claimed](https://www.investopedia.com/spacs-look-like-a-bubble-within-a-bubble-5105202) to be an indicator of a market bubble. + +**ETF Volatility** + +ETF's are generally stable places for investors and don't normally see volatility. When ETF's see [volatility](https://www.ft.com/content/464d8d78-a843-11e7-ab66-21cc87a2edde), it's an indicator of an unstable market. With GameStop, we saw a lot of Due Diligence on Reddit that ETF's were being shorted to cover the existing shorts. + +**GameStop as a Catalyst** + +There are already fingers being pointed at the mini-squeeze by retail investors of GameStop in Jan 2021 as causing instability in the market. News [articles](https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2021/01/28/gamestop-price-stock-market-bubble-optimism/) are now appearing to link a market bubble and GameStop. There are many such as this [one](https://apnews.com/article/wall-street-worries-bubble-gamestop-1f6918bbe537f2cc40c8f4629423f08a), [this one](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/02/12/is-the-stock-market-about-to-crash/?sh=856d1d571dee), and even international news articles such as [this](https://gulfnews.com/your-money/saving-investment/signs-point-to-an-imminent-stock-market-crash--how-can-you-protect-your-investments-1.1612103834934). + +**Conclusion and Opinion** + +The market was moving towards a crash even without GameStop but when it does finally squeeze, it will be felt throughout the markets which were already on the way. This [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2g8PawZIRrk) also provides other indicators of a market crash. + +***My opinion of what would happen next:*** + +* GME will squeeze. *(date removed).* +* Market bubble will pop. +* Crypto will also take a dive. (There are many institutions now invested in crypto which will need the liquidity to recover or take a new position. Also a good opportunity to buy a crypto dip). +* The US dollar will trend downwards, with gold and other precious metals going up. +* Government will intervene. +* New regulations and other unrelated laws because "you never let a crisis go to waste". +* We apes enjoy our tendies and the bad press coverage. + +\*\*Edit 1\*\* [u/Flacier](https://www.reddit.com/u/Flacier/) has similar thoughts with some data [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lqruwa/gme_short_will_crash_the_market_this_is_my_buy/). + +\*\*Edit 2\*\* [u/Wonderboi1995](https://www.reddit.com/user/Wonderboi1995/) get's in to detail about Michael Burry's and the Big Short 2.0 [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lr8h1v/why_father_burry_is_calling_the_big_short_20_i/). + +\*\*Edit 3\*\* More evidence of [Buffet](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3b026604-df9a-3c74-a949-f0706778fb75/warren-buffett%E2%80%99s-berkshire.html) pulling money out of the market. + +\*\*Edit 4\*\* [u/throwawayable8236](https://www.reddit.com/user/throwawayable8236/) posting about the ties to [crypto](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mv6wl0/a_possible_tie_in_of_the_cryptocurrency_market/). + +\*\*Edit 5\*\* [u/SuperstonkBot](https://www.reddit.com/user/SuperstonkBot/) and the [hype induced market crash.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtistc/are_we_headed_toward_a_hypeinduced_market_crash/) + +\*\*Edit 6\*\* [u/socrates6210](https://www.reddit.com/user/socrates6210/) and an example of the banks selling record levels of [bonds.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrrwz5/jp_morgan_spoofed_their_earnings_to_get_investors/) + +\*\*Edit 7\*\* Great explanation by [u/Calluma93](https://www.reddit.com/user/Calluma93/) on the [Everything Short.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrrwz5/jp_morgan_spoofed_their_earnings_to_get_investors/) + +\*\*Edit 8\*\* [u/jsmar1](https://www.reddit.com/user/jsmar18/) did this great DD on Michael Burry's tweet and the explanation of [repo's and reverse repo's.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mil875/michael_burry_handed_us_the_missing_piece_on_a/) + +\*\*Edit 9\*\* [u/JustBeingPunny](https://www.reddit.com/user/JustBeingPunny/) post continuing to cover the Everything Short with respect to [SPAC's and Bonds.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mit0eu/the_everything_shortcontinued_citadel_spacs_and/) + +\*\*Edit 10\*\* I almost forgot to include some of the best DD yet from [u/atobitt](https://www.reddit.com/user/atobitt/) which is the original "[Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)" post + +\*\*Edit 11\*\* A different perspective by [u/karasuuchiha](https://www.reddit.com/user/karasuuchiha/) on how retail winning is good for the [economy](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mm959z/world_war_3_longs_vs_shorts/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) and investment. + +\*\*Edit 12\*\* The original Michael Burry tweet is deleted. I can't find the original tweet but the document he had referenced can be found [here.](https://docs.google.com/document/d/11ul_lcNWwJHd4DHFwxZlwyh1lIFmYN6peGO5D8X7434/edit?usp=sharing) Thanks to [u/biobey1](https://www.reddit.com/user/biobey1/) for catching it and linking it. + +\*\*Edit 13\*\* u/drakefin has found the backup of the Michael Burry [tweet](https://web.archive.org/web/20210223035327/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1363244089576022016). Thanks! + +\*\*Edit 14\*\* An anonymous user has also pointed to an interview with Jeremy Grantham also talking about the [next big crash](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w). + +\*\*Edit 15\*\* [u/Alert\_Piano341](https://www.reddit.com/user/Alert_Piano341/) has more information on SPAC's in this [post.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mv5h61/citadel_may_have_no_clothes_but_they_have_a_shit/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +**\*\*Edit 16\*\* u/**[**GMD\_1090**](https://www.reddit.com/user/GMD_1090) **is collecting and organizing DD like a true autist. I would suggest everyone take a** [**look**](https://docs.google.com/document/d/191xpr5xt19ou1TjCuqfQy-SltK6wR5dugHRH1xeKzRk/edit)**.** + +\*\*Edit 17\*\* u/fortifier22 just released more [great information](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvj8fz/where_there_is_smoke_there_is_fire/) in a recent post. + +\*\*Edit 18\*\* [u/According\_Bee2757](https://www.reddit.com/user/According_Bee2757/) does a comparison of negative beta and distribution [days](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n0htur/the_end_is_near_market_tops_distribution_days/). +Hey there, thanks for stopping by before you almost posted that inexperienced humble brag. You just saved yourself a lot of suffering. + +So you’ve finished for first week/month of trading and you’ve seen pretty much nothing but green! Congratulations. When you’re completely new to something and you see a small bit of success, you have no perspective of fear or self doubt. When you have no inhibition and loads of confidence, it really does allow you to self actualize results for a solid stretch. + +That stretch eventually ends. You’ll learn the fear after the market bites a larger chunk out of you than expected and start you’ll closing winning trades early while letting losing trades run. Before that happens you’re inexperienced, but have confidence. Afterwards, you have no confidence and no experience. That’s a much harder scenario to perform in. + +I highly encourage you to briefly read into the Dunning Kruger effect, chances are you’re an unwitting victim at the peak of the aptly named “mount stupid.” You believe you can outperform billions of dollars of institutional order flow by using nothing but some lines and an indicator on its default setting, which, I was not immune to believing when I first started trading as well. It feels damn good to briefly outperform all those “so called experts.” + +So why am I making this post? Since I started frequently browsing this subreddit while babysitting my trades, I have seen literally dozens of the aforementioned posts. A screenshot of *maybe* a dozen trades from a completely green trader with a week old reddit account, typically followed by a meagerly explained chart and a very “strong” prediction. + +“Ah, well I’ve won those previous trades, if I had used five times as much leverage on them I would have made SO much money! I’ll just increase my leverage on the next trade since I’ve got such a strong winning streak!” + +I cannot recall of a single instance where an author of these kinds of posts lasted more than a week or two. The account is deleted, and someone invariably posts “hey, what happened to *insert username here?*” It’s probable they liquidated their position. + +If you still intend to make this kind of post, I wish I could purchase a contract that’d pay me out if you liquidate your account within the month. Hell, I’d prefer to just buy those contracts over actually trading. The probabilities are way better. + +So what’s the alternative? + +1. Immediately reduce your account size to 1/10th of its current size and don’t increase it until you’ve completed over 200 trades. You need a large sample size to actually gauge profitability. Backtesting isn’t good enough. The human element (you) can be the flaw in a winning strategy. + +2. Read books. Bollinger on Bollinger bands, Macro to micro and Volatility Illuminated are all must reads. + +3. Never risk more than 1% of your account on any given trade. If you’re on 2x leverage and are using 100% of your account on the trade, you can use a 0.5% stop loss. If you’re on 10x leverage and utilizing half of your account, you can use a 0.2% stop loss. And so on. This ensures your account never goes to zero. + +4. Learn the math and reasoning behind your indicator. Why does it work? Not how to use it, by WHY does it work. “It’s a proven standard, everyone else uses it, it’s the golden rule, or it’s worked in the past so it will work again” are all appeal to authority fallacies. A compass doesn’t work because of the aforementioned reasons right? Not knowing why it works means you won’t be able to recognize the conditions where the indicator will fail. + +For the love of god, when you hit that losing streak don’t increase your position size. “My account is in the red, all I need to do is make it all back in one or two trades then I can go back to my strategy!” Nope. Don’t do it. That’s how you get a margin call. + +If an open position feels like it’s put a hole in your chest, close it. You’ll quickly learn it’s not sustainable for your account OR your emotional health. + +You are valuable and capable of great things. Capable is the key word, you are unrealized potential. The status quo in forex trading is slowly bleeding funds over months and years from the deceptive comfort of the dogma of your strategy and undeserved confidence. Rise above the lowest common denominator. + +Thanks for reading, I had fun typing this. I’ve been trading for just under four and a half years now and have been going full time for a year and a half. I’d be happy to answer any questions or provide resources. + +Edit: Since this has been well received, if you see someone make the “peak of mount stupid screenshot” post, link this rant in the comments! +Hello Everyone! + +**Side note: first of all Happy April Fool's day everyone! While I hope everyone can celebrate that in their own lives outside of here, I ask that we keep all of that out of this post (along with the rest of the sub). Good vibes and cheery love is welcome and **encouraged** here, but please no pranks or jokes to mislead people. I hope to keep this with the space and energy as it would any other day or time. Thanks for understanding 😊!** + +Hello all, I've been so happy for the good reception this has been getting every time, and all of the helping people in many different ways. I'm just so so happy for that. Now just like I always ask, is everyone holding up okay? Still lots of turbulence in the world right now, as well as in people's personal lives. It's okay to take a breather! In, out! Ahh! + +Yesterday after 3 tweets by you know who, a stock split dividend (or something of the sort lol) was announced! Seems like Ryan Cohen is done with the warning shots, and has started firing his cannonballs at the wooden ships of the hedge funds! DRS seems to remain a priority here for the sub. Good stuff. Pretty exciting stuff imo. This all comes from weeks of Ryan Cohen tweeting more directly about the short problem, and also a pretty successful earnings call. Only time will tell what's next. Will Ryan tweet today? Find out! + + +Now on to the fun stuff. Anyone need food or essentials? Please reach out to the community and speak up! No shame. Many here can help make sure that you and your loved ones are good. There is no reason anyone should be without. Ive seen so many comments of people in tough times, it just absolutely pains me to see this. I don't know how to even do this. I'm sure we can find a way in keeping this responsible and anonymous. Anonymous is the word, no one is asking for anyone to be doxed here. + +No one should be without. We're all family here. Even if this helps a few people then it's worth it. + +If you need help, if you're struggling, please ask. We are all a collective community, and there's no shame in seeking support if you need it. Also you don't need to be in the same area, hopefully you can find someone/people to help! If you just need to vent that's fine too. + +Just wanna go over a few ground rules for this post. Feeling frustrated and tired here IS okay, but spreading FUD is not. A little leway will be given but outright saying you sold (true or not) isn't the best to post. Also helping out is absolutely okay, and welcomed, but I think the line has to be drawn at things like official charity links and gofundmes. Also remember that while this is an online community, we are all individual investors. But also remember that needing help is okay and youre not alone. + +And for the critics, not everyone who's struggling is over leveraged. Alot can change in a year, and you just never know what people are truly going through. A little compassion never hurts 😄. + +Cheers everyone 🍻 + +Use your gut and ape help ape! WAGMI. And remember, shorts ARRRR fukt! 🏴‍☠️🚩🦍 +My brother (58m) is financially dependent on our parents. He is a licensed professional, but can't get clients anymore. They pay his rent, his health insurance, clothing and pets. He is able to pay for his own food and some small items including his pot habit. He lives as if he is retired mostly playing video games and arguing on social media. He doesn't have many social connections. He has hygiene issues that make him difficult to live with. He has filed for bankruptcy multiple times and cannot rent in his name. His student loans are a large burden, but I don't know more then that. He is obese with health issues. If I let him in my house unsupervised he will raid my kitchen and make himself free to go through my belongings. I don't know what to do with him. + +Edit: Thank you for all the advice. I'm sorting it into a spreadsheet, to organize and discuss with my parents. +What we're seeing now is just the beginning of a major pushback by SHF's, and confirmation for me at least that we're on the right track. + +The Streisand effect was at max after NBC edited out the section where GG talked about dark pools and GG simply retweeted it. The thing that happened in plain sight in that interview that GG didn't get proper recognition for was when the 3rd man started suggesting repeatedly that GG should do some "speaking engagements", "help everyone understand", by which I think we can all presume he meant 'paid speaking engagements' since that's clearly how the machine works. If you watch that section GG just shook his head and laughed it off. He knows what that's about, and he knows the path he's chosen is the road less travelled. + +My guess as to what's happened since is this: Citadel realise that they have both an incoming regulatory investigation and a narrative problem. They've kicked the can by shutting down the story and ignoring it, but GG's tweet with the missing interview set the stage, this will get bigger. What to do? + +They get hold of best pal Andrew Sorkin, widely read finance journo and guy who came up with the TV series Billions, which follows a hedge fund owner whose life approach is to steamroller regulators and enemies and win by whatever means necessary (they say you should write what you know). + +They need more public visibility he'll likely have said, they should use their 'standing' to point out that they are the establishment and these reddit types are conspiracy theorists. Get back to social/youtube, be forward, I'll draw them into a narrative where we misrepresent some of their DD so it sounds like crazy nonsense he might have said, nobody checks sources for us MSM types anymore, so people will believe us, see our inserted interpretations, think that's what reddit thinks, and decide reddit are crazy. + +If this sounds familiar to anyone it should, it's a version of the Theranos end-game PR gameplan. If you haven't seen any of the Theranos documentaries, go find one, the HBO one was good. In summary: Multi-Billion dollar blood testing tech startup run by forceful exec who has managed to bend influential people to her will and coerce others to control the narrative has actually lied to conceal the fact that the tests don't work at all and Theranos as a company is a scam. + +The journo that finally broke the Theranos story (after being threatened incidentally) said something a lot like this: When you were looking at it none of the parts made any sense, and everyone kept dismissing them. But once you took the 10,000ft view and came to the only logical realisation the whole thing was built on lies, it all made sense. + +SO: Recognising these kinds of approaches are being deployed helps us better manage how we react to them. Clearly they have a need to being doing this or they wouldn't bother. I've said it before, I'll say it again: For a bunch of people that, ahem, "closed in January" they all seem mightily preoccupied by a situation that "doesn't exist" and shouldn't make the slightest difference to any of them. +So far I didnt get bad tenants but my fear in the future is leasing to a problematic tenant. I hear stories about destroying everything etc. If that happens, can you sue the tenant? What are your tips of selecting a good tenant? +I'm asking because this is a new goal of mine. I started trading earlier this year with ~$5,000 and currently have ~$22,000. + +I'm becoming more confident and aggressive with my trades and have learnt a few costly mistakes with more to come I'm sure. + +I don't trade every single day, but could definitely see myself making a living from this. At what point did you all make the leap? +As the Fed begins their perilous journey into Quantitative Tightening, markets are going awry. With the disconnection of the liquidity hose and the return of rising interest rates, [**Strange Things**](https://imgur.com/a/WKjyHZQ) are going on in assets, currencies, and the largest market of all, bonds. We are quickly being led into a place few have ever visited, and fewer have returned from alive… + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/7eumoto7khl91.png?width=1238&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fe46b8d019a22ec7084704935b5293195b90fc6 + +—---------------------- + +&#x200B; + +In the world of economics, there are two general factors that affect prices broadly: supply and demand. Since the Fed cannot increase the supply of commodities in any meaningful way, the only way they can broadly effect prices downwards is demand-side, meaning to fight inflation they must “destroy” demand by making it prohibitively expensive to borrow, crushing equity markets, and eliminating the much vaunted “wealth effect” that they claim rescued the US economy from the depths of 2008. + +**The problem is, this will certainly cause a recession (actually it already has,** [**Q1 GDP printed -1.6%**](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product)**, and** [**Q2 came in at -0.9%**](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product)**).** Normally, a recession is in many ways a good thing; leveraged businesses and unhealthy enterprises are cleaned out of the system, temporary pain is inflicted on the economy, but this lays the groundwork for new firms to rise out of the ashes. + +However, in an economy as indebted as ours, a slight increase in interest rates can mean catastrophic increases in interest expenses in the financial system- especially for over indebted companies, right as their net margins are squeezed by inflation. + +The Fed is currently intent on fighting record inflation by crushing bondholders, including holders of US Treasuries and Corporate Debt. This will have disastrous implications for the American economy at large. + +Let’s take a look at the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond index (AGG): + +&#x200B; + +[AGG Index](https://preview.redd.it/o9c9a03fkhl91.png?width=1238&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f6fbe056914416244c0b3a4d4bcc750078d3be9) + +(The total return of AGG year-to-date is shown in the dark black line. The other lines show the total returns for the AGG for each of the prior 30 years.) + +Prior to 2022, the worst year was 1999, when the AGG had a total return of -5%. Its best year was 1995, when it rose 19%. **This year it is down 12%. April was the worst month ever for the bond market.** + +The Fed is on a single-minded mission to fight inflation, [according to Jim Bianco](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2022/05/07/jim-bianco-the-fed-will-crush-inflation-and-with-it-the-stock-market) (president and macro strategist at his own firm, Bianco Research, L.L.C.). To do that, it will crush stock prices and home values. + +**“We have seen nothing like this,” Bianco said. “The bond market has never been this bad in terms of total return.” He likened that decline to the S&P being down 50% to 60%.** + +There is “tremendous stress” in the bond market, he said. “There is going to be a problem,” but the bond market is too complex to say where it will eventually be. + +&#x200B; + +[$15.5 Tn Drawdown in both Equities and Fixed Income](https://preview.redd.it/9qtv4fnkkhl91.png?width=798&format=png&auto=webp&s=03b608d8b70a35d756bd27ec5f79c12af69f275b) + +“The only way to get the inflation rate down that much is to keep markets under stress,” Bianco said. **“The Fed will raise rates until inflation comes down or something breaks.”** + +**This mirrors my predictions of the Fed taper backfiring, sending us into a deep recession or depression, and QE Infinity beginning (see** [**Dollar Endgame Part 4.2**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qassc0/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/)**).** + +**The Fed, unknowingly or not, has led us into a hellish dimension of their own design- the Upside Down. They will try everything to escape, causing escalating volatility in markets and worsening inflation, in a futile attempt to get out of the debt trap they created. And if they do nothing, the downturn will only get worse.** + +Bond ETFs are being taken to the woodshed. iShares’ 20 Year ETF, TLT, the most popular long term Treasury ETF, is down a whopping 24% this year alone. Vanguard’s version, VGLT, is down more than [21% this year](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vglt#). All 6 core bond ETFs recommended by Morningstar are down more than 10%. + +&#x200B; + +[iShares Long Bond ETF](https://preview.redd.it/z1xj500pkhl91.png?width=1398&format=png&auto=webp&s=690c5606f1e3998d7d4c59b259339d9c34ef9382) + +This last Friday, August 26th, bond funds experienced their [biggest outflows in 8 weeks](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-bond-funds-record-biggest-weekly-outflow-eight-weeks-2022-08-26/). (Reuters) - “Investors dumped U.S. bond funds in the week to Aug 24 as they waited to hear a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday which will be scrutinised for clues on the pace of forthcoming interest rate hikes. [(more context)](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-daly-50-bps-or-75-bps-sept-rate-hike-reasonable-2022-08-18/) + +According to Refinitiv Lipper data, U.S. bond funds witnessed outflows worth a net $8.81 billion, the most in a week since June 22.” + +Furthermore, Emerging Markets were hit hard as well- according to the [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-08-26-2022/card/emerging-market-relief-rally-stumbles-JPe78jZIHT2Zoku79di5), investors pulled $108 million from EM bond funds last week, on resurging concerns that the strong dollar and the Fed aggressively tightening can put emerging markets under further pressure. + +This matters because the bedrock of American financial planning is the 60/40 risk parity portfolio- 60% stocks, 40% bonds. This is the most common portfolio recommended to Baby Boomers (who hold the vast majority of US wealth), and is taught to financial advisors by firms such as Northwestern Mutual, Vanguard, Fidelity, Goldman, and many others. Most advisors will tell you this portfolio is bulletproof, it has rarely had down years, and it is a “set and forget” method to steadily build wealth passively. + +The portfolio construction is predicated on the theory that stocks and bonds are inversely correlated- when one is up, the other is flat or even slightly down- so the portfolio automatically hedges itself. In theory. + +However, what they fail to mention is that this portfolio is usually only back-tested with a 40year timeframe- when we run the calculations out further, we see that actually stocks and bonds move together more often, and less time inversely, than previously thought. For example, from 1883- 2015, stocks and bonds moved in tandem 30% of the time, and moved inversely only 11%. It is only the past few decades of quantitative easing, infinite liquidity, and zero bound interest rates that this portfolio has worked as intended. (Refer to [this research paper](https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/2b34894bzsaqsbcx) by Artemis Capital- positive correlation is bad in this case, see below for the sections marked in red). + +&#x200B; + +[Bonds and Stocks are more correlated than previously believed](https://preview.redd.it/w72p7k5skhl91.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=57edca89121409c5b9bd3805ddafd4c162e51d77) + +Debt defaults spreading throughout an economy is par for the course during a recession. This can be clearly seen in a [graph of non-financial corporates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=VLW) debt to GDP. (i.e. US businesses excluding banks and broker-dealers) + +&#x200B; + +[Nonfinancial corporate debt to GDP](https://preview.redd.it/7vrcvg0ykhl91.png?width=754&format=png&auto=webp&s=4dffeca57a7bd83b9899e3f88de34e16af0a34ae) + +Corporate Debt as a percent of GDP rises during periods of economic growth, and falls as the economy contracts- businesses forced to pay off debt, cut expenses, and some even go bankrupt. Now, this figure is higher than ever before- and the recent drop in the chart since 2020 **is purely semantics, as they are using gross GDP as the denominator.** + +This basically means they include inflation as economic growth- GDP is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in an economy, and if prices rise, nominal (gross) GDP will rise, even if the economy is not growing at all. **The growth is only an illusion.** + +**Thus, we are still likely only slightly below that 2020 level, which is well north of 50% of GDP- the height of the 2008 bubble didn’t even get here. This implies that the coming downturn, if taken in full stride without a restart of QE, will be worse than 2008.** + +On the housing front, real estate markets are cooling off rapidly. Rising Fed Funds rates mean that mortgage rates are rising in tandem (since almost every interest rate in our economy is calculated as some premium on top of the Fed Funds rate or a Treasury yield). + +For reference, a $500k mortgage with a 50k down payment, excluding taxes, homeowners insurance, and other expenses, would cost approximately $2,037 a year ago. Now, that same mortgage costs $3,061, or 50% more. With real wages falling due to inflation rising faster than wage growth, this means that housing demand is falling rapidly. + +[Bloomberg reports](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/hottest-us-housing-markets-now-have-bigger-share-of-price-cuts): “US cities that saw some of the biggest jumps in home prices during the pandemic now have the largest shares of price cuts, according to data compiled by [Zillow Group Inc](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ZG:US). + +Overall, the proportion of active real estate listings with lower prices has increased in all 50 of the largest US metropolitan markets tracked by Zillow. In these cities, 11.5% of homes saw a price cut in May, on average, up from 8.2% a year earlier. + +**Among the 50 metros in Zillow’s data, 32 had more than 10% of listings with a price decline. In eight cities, the share has jumped by at least 5 percentage points over the past year.”** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5t5ahvbalhl91.png?width=1232&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9c9f1f12f3a077a7147d05deaa2fd611cc84657 + +What is even more concerning is the skyrocketing cost of mortgages. With the recent hikes in interest rates, and negative real wages gains due to inflation, US mortgage payments as percentage of income are higher than at the top of the subprime bubble. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/t20iu57elhl91.png?width=1272&format=png&auto=webp&s=71fafed3d221a1679c416d67b81de78e784e059b + +Housing, food and energy represent inelastic goods in an economy- these are not things we want, they are things we need. An increase in these prices means less disposable income to spend on other goods - portending a fall in business revenues for firms that aren’t in these vital industries. + +[Macro Alf on Twitter points out](https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1562477584654409728/photo/1)\- “Housing market trends lead economic and labor market cycles by 6-12 months. Right now, the US housing market is signalling unemployment rate will likely be above 6% in 2023: another data point which is inconsistent with a soft landing.” + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5unodflilhl91.png?width=1204&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1bd89a37ec39db241962117bd56f1a2e2d2d1d9 + +The US Treasury Yield Curve, a graphical representation of the yields for the most common maturity treasuries and t-bills, is currently deeply inverted. The two- to 10-year segment of the yield curve inverted in late March 2022 for the first time since 2019. + +(The term [yield curve](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp) refers to the relationship between the short- and long-term interest rates of [fixed-income securities](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fixed-incomesecurity.asp) issued by the U.S. Treasury. An [inverted yield curve](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp) occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates.) + +Under normal circumstances, the yield curve is not inverted since debt with longer maturities typically carry higher interest rates than nearer-term ones. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vbamzx8klhl91.png?width=1708&format=png&auto=webp&s=a010d8dbc093ab544db15ccf81472fb94a1b1160 + +As investors fear an economic downturn, however, they begin buying longer dated maturities en masse, driving up bond prices, and therefore driving down yields on the 7 year and 10 year bonds. (recall that bond prices and bond yields are inversely correlated). This causes the 10yr yield to dip below the 2 year yield, which in a healthy market would never happen. + +**The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession since 1955, with a recession following between six and 24 months, according to a** [**2018 report**](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2018-20.pdf) **by researchers at the San Francisco Fed. It offered a false signal just once in that time.** + +This indicator is one of the most accurate forecasters of recession- and given the depth of the inversion, the bond market is foreshadowing a much worse downturn than even the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. + +(The chart below portrays the difference between the 2 year and the 10 year (this pair is often called 2s10s.) When it is positive, the 10yr yield is higher, and we have an upward sloping curve. When it is 0, the curve is flat, and when it is negative, the curve is inverted. Currently it is negative) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/56kib3zolhl91.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=8815ff7e4dbecae2ab7e798d78ce274b84ae9eb8 + +[Bloomberg notes](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/treasury-yield-curve-inversion-has-scope-to-deepen-bofa-says): “And it isn’t just the US bond market that’s signaling that a recession may be on the horizon. [New Zealand](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/RFJOJ0T0G1KW)’s two-year yields exceeded 10-year rates for the first time since 2015 on Wednesday. The difference between Australia’s 10- and three-year bond futures -- its favored measure -- is at the flattest in more than a decade, while the UK’s yield curve briefly inverted earlier this month.” + +All these worrying recession indicators hit as the US consumer is at its weakest in at least the last 40 years- [Credit card balances increased $46 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/08/02/credit-card-debt-inflation/) in the second quarter, a 5.5 percent increase from the first quarter, and there was also an uptick in new credit card accounts. The 13 percent increase from the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022 was the biggest such jump in more than 20 years! + +**People are going further into debt just to stay alive- this can’t possibly be sustainable. The debt monster continues to grow.** + +Joelle Scally, administrator of the Center for Microeconomic Data at the New York Fed, stated in a news release, “The second quarter of 2022 showed robust increases in mortgage, auto loan, and credit card balances, driven in part by rising prices. “While household balance sheets overall appear to be in a strong position, we are seeing rising delinquencies among subprime and low-income borrowers with rates approaching pre-pandemic levels.” + +**And to think, all this economic damage and the Fed hasn’t even BEGUN to tighten! They’ve raised rates, sure- but if you check** [**this post I made a few weeks ago**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vp8k3j/fed_purchases_423bn_usts_and_mbs_from_june_1st9th/)**, you see that the Fed has run a pathetic excuse of a tightening program.** + +The Fed’s total assets (Balance sheet) is charted below, the beginning of the period set to early 2020. This tightening cycle is the slowest and weakest the Fed has ever undertaken. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qqaz949rlhl91.png?width=2336&format=png&auto=webp&s=16de6ea72e656ff95b48df5414461cb794811f1a + +They’re using a covert method of financial engineering to slow down the taper- they were slated to do $95B a month of tapering, i.e. allowing their Treasury or MBS debt securities to mature (or sell them), and not printing more to replace them. This program would have been smaller than the QE of 2021, which saw $120B a month of liquidity added to the system. + +But they aren’t even following through with their own plan. The accounting gimmick results from them using a loophole to “reinvest” funds back into Treasuries or MBS. + +Understandably, the Fed, with it’s massive holdings of bonds, receives interest payments monthly. These payments were usually written off in previous tightening cycles (literally the Fed can go into their central account and delete their own deposits from the system). + +**This time, they’re using the billions of interest each month to plow back into new Treasuries or MBS. This isn’t “printing money” technically they argue, since no new bank reserves are being created- rather they are just “recycled” from the existing system.** + +**Either way, the Fed is not tightening at the proposed $95B a month pace, rather they have drawn their balance sheet down about $100B since April, four months ago- this is 25% of where we should be if the taper was being run correctly.** + +Even the incompetent administrators on the Open Market Desk at the Fed must know that if they truly taper, and destroy the trillions in easy money they pumped into the system, the entire edifice will fall. The economy is already headed toward severe recession, the Eurozone is collapsing from an energy crisis turning into a full blown inflationary crisis, and layoffs are beginning to spread through the American economy. + +If they destroyed the excess liquidity that was pumped in the system, I believe a New Great Depression would begin within months. Stocks would collapse, the Federal Government would default on debts, and millions of businesses would fail. Their very credibility would be threatened, and the people might drive them out of power. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/da76e0axlhl91.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3b8fe09b7c4ce7ce7667a650858f34cb7b97f9b + +Our debt to GDP is higher now than even the peak of the 1930s and 1940s, during the last zenith of the debt super-cycle. Further, the consumer is at record loan to income, with credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances surging in Q2. The American middle class simply cannot withstand more debt. + +**They are consigned to walk a tightrope, on one side the perilous deflationary spiral, and the other the burning inferno of inflation. They must hike rates, but they can’t taper- they must get stocks to come down, but not too much- they must induce recession, but not depression. It is a virtually impossible task.** + +**Fed officials walk this rope because they themselves created it- with the years of zero bound interest rates, infinite liquidity, and permanent bailout facilities such as Standing Repo, they created a sick, distorted version of our original financial system.** + +**The economic cognoscenti have opened the door into the Upside Down- a mirror dimension where nothing is quite as it seems. We’ve never traveled to this dimension at any other point in financial history - so we can’t even discern the difference between it and normalcy.** + +**This is a strange place- where inflation bankrupts America while the Dollar soars on foreign exchange; markets rally as jobless claims rise; and the Almighty Fed is the only indicator to watch.** + +**Markets should be down 35% here and trending lower, CDS spreads should break out, credit markets should be in absolute bloodbath, and yet, here we are- markets are down, but not too much, inflation is “under control”, and the definition of recession itself is changing! (**[**see this**](https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/how-do-economists-determine-whether-the-economy-is-in-a-recession/)**)** + +**The governing elites meander around, oblivious to the danger that lies ahead.** + +&#x200B; + +[The Upside Down](https://preview.redd.it/4jlub7k0mhl91.png?width=2470&format=png&auto=webp&s=e050c4797a9acd198ec878793c110904cbf87b8a) + +&#x200B; + +**Perhaps they are missing something- maybe there is Demogorgon lurking deep in the tunnels.** + +**Mad with hunger, he is ready to rend flesh and bone asunder** + +**Perhaps this debt monster already has his claws deep in the Treasury, the banking systems, and the boards of corporate America** + +**His talons might reach across the nation, poisoning everything he touches, as he squats in the shadows** + +**His tendrils spread, infecting new victims and sickening the rest** + +**He feeds on rates, and lives on time** + +**Every day and every hour the interest accrues; the debt accumulates,** + +**and he grows stronger and stronger;** + +**Perhaps he is just biding his time, patiently and silently-** + +**Until his Power is too great for even the Almighty Fed to overcome.** + +&#x200B; + +**Perhaps.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# Epilogue—---------------------- + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +This talk of the Fed walking a tightrope of stagflation draws me back to the title sequence written almost a year ago for [Part 4.0 of The Dollar Endgame](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/png8nu/hyperinflation_is_coming_the_dollar_endgame_part/)\- + +&#x200B; + +[The Ships of State ](https://preview.redd.it/gbqed17emhl91.png?width=1244&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a148114705ad9be9fb77bccd6cc90e1587c4d71) + +&#x200B; + +**“Imagine the world economy as an armada of ships passing through a narrow and dangerous strait leading to the sea of prosperity. Navigating the channel is treacherous- err too far to one side and your ship plunges off the waterfall of deflation; but too close to the other and it burns in the hellfire of inflation.** The global fleet is tethered by chains of trade and investment so if one ship veers perilously off course it pulls the others with it. + +Our only salvation is to hoist our economic sails and harness the winds of innovation and productivity. It is said that de-leveraging is a perilous journey and beneath these dark waters are many a sunken economy of lore. **Print too little money and we cascade off the waterfall like the Great Depression of the 1930s... print too much and we burn like the Weimar Republic Germany in the 1920s...** fail to harness the trade winds and we sink like Japan in the 1990s. + +**On cold nights when the moon is full you can watch these ghost ships making their journey back to hell... they appear to warn us that our resolution to avoid one fate may damn us to the other.”** + +**(**[**Artemis**](https://artemiscm.docsend.com/view/u8q6ygn3h8j5w99f)**)** + +&#x200B; + +\------------------------ + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**You can follow me on Twitter at** [peruvian\_bull](https://twitter.com/peruvian_bull)**. All other accounts are impersonators/scam accounts. I will never ask for personal information, nor solicit or offer financial advice.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +*Nothing on this Post constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, investment product, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From reading my Post I cannot assess anything about your personal circumstances, your finances, or your goals and objectives, all of which are unique to you, so any opinions or information contained on this Post are just that – an opinion or information. Please consult a financial professional if you seek advice.* +This is like if Tesla listed the first flying car for sale on their website and the media doesn’t say a single word about it. Then it only gets mentioned when 🍿 CEO says he wants to partner up with Tesla and give free popcorn and water for all Tesla/🍿 stockholders while he sells more shares. + +They were all over that Spider-Man NFT bullshit and papa Cohen just dropped a fucking NFT Marketplace but 🦗 🦗 🦗 from all news outlets. + +I know this isn’t anything new but it’s still frustrating as hell. And I get that there hasn’t been an “official” announcement yet but I’m sure MSM will still find a way to distract and try to get people to “fOrGeT GAmESToP, bUy SiLvEr iNsTeAd aNd sToP aSkInG qUeStIoNs!” + +Fuck you Kenny, I’m never selling. + +Edit: I think I need to add some context because there is a lot of negativity going on. I thought all of us apes had the same distaste for MSM from all that we witnessed this past year alone. Do you really think just because it’s still a “rumor” that they haven’t reported on it? Because of what? Journalistic integrity? 😂 Or is the more obvious orders from up top and Mayo boy to not report on any positive news for GameStop? As I even stated in my original post, I know that there isn’t an official announcement yet but yet Benzinga nonchalantly tweets about the NFT Marketplace only when mentioned with 🍿. Here is the link you filthy apes + +https://twitter.com/benzinga/status/1475891041647661070?s=21 + +Again, fuck you Mayo boy. Never selling! +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Find the latest Altcoin Discussion thread in [this search listing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3Aaltcoin&include_over_18=on&sort=new&t=all). + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I've been writing forex trading algos for over 5 years now. One thing I always noticed in the results from the MetaQuotes optimization tester is that settings with a small tp and a large sl tend to be more successful than vice versa. This is not only in terms of overall profit, but in terms of sharpe ratio, recovery factor, drawdown, etc. I'm running tests right now and I'm looking at a result with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.5, a recovery factor of 1.2, and a drawdown of 0.02% -- with a tp of 20 pips, and a sl of 74 pips. So, almost a 1:4 ratio. + +However, we are taught from very early on as traders that we should cut losses short and let profits run, which works out mechanically to mean a small sl, and a larger tp. +