diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_340.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_340.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_340.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ + +THEYšŸ‘AREšŸ‘INšŸ‘ONšŸ‘IT. + +Whatever earth shattering new evidence you think you're bringing to their attention, they are fuckin *well* aware of. They just refuse to act on it. You dont get to those positions in government if rich folk (the people actually running the country) don't want you there. + +Besides, the evidence is all over the internet, its well documented and its not going anywhere. We'll have all the time in the world to prosecute kenny and friends when all this is over. Not only that, we'll have the juice to make sure they actually get punished. Not sent to some 3 star hotel to play tennis all day, but actual pound-me-in-the-ass federal prison. + +Buy, hodl, DRS is the *only* thing we have actual control over. Everything else is just noise. Obligatory NFA. +I am just a bit confused by how this works. Interest rates are really low, so people can afford to borrow more, which pushes house prices up. But when interest rates are high, people canā€™t borrow as much, and house prices go down. But- isnā€™t the overall amount that people then have to pay around the same? + +Edit: just to clarify, Iā€™m not talking about house prices- I understand how those go up and down according to interest rates. Iā€™m talking about housing affordability. Eg if I want to buy a 2 bedroom apartment in a particular suburb of Sydney, how is my ability to afford that same apartment any different whether itā€™s high interest rates/lower prices, versus lower interest rates/higher prices. + +[How To Thrive in Early Retirement](http://archive.is/CfmjW) + +I thought this was an interesting perspective. Especially the bit about less than a million people retired prior to 50. If it was a million even, that would be 1.2% of the population 30-50. + +FIRE must be the popular topic for the media to write about now. I wonder if a down market will stop the media train. + + +You're doing it wrong! Not you, singular; but you, collectively. Among you, there are people undermining their personal wealth by doing things that seem like good ideas, but, in hindsight...don't really work out that way. + +Here are ten things you might be doing, and why not to do them. (We've covered some of these in other posts, so this is primarily a handy checklist.) If you are not doing any of these, take a victory lap! + +1. **Spending more than you make**. No explanation needed. Don't do that! Even if you like buying things, or don't have much income, or hope to get a better job soon. Make a budget, and stick to it. Make automatic savings contributions before you even look at your checking account balance. Establish and maintain an emergency fund. If you rely on a payday loan to avoid eviction, you're doing it wrong. + +2. **Financing a car that is [too expensive](http://genxfinance.com/your-car-is-making-you-poor-and-what-you-can-do-about-it/)**. For example, one that costs almost as much as your annual take-home pay. Even if it's really cool, or one you've always wanted, or you want a warranty. Please don't do that. You can't afford it; you'll be underwater and can't pay off the loan even if you sell the car; your insurance will be too expensive. You can get a reliable used car for under $10,000. + +3. **Carrying a balance on your interest-bearing credit card**, because you think it [improves your credit history / score](https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/finance/credit-score-does-carrying-a-balance-help/). It doesn't. You just pay interest. You want to use a card to generate positive history, but you also want to pay off an interest-accruing card in full. Every month. No exceptions. And yes, that means you can't use credit to finance your lifestyle (see point 1). + +4. **Taking out a loan to establish your credit history**. You do not have to do that, when you can do the same thing with a credit card that you pay no interest on. Taking out a car loan as your first credit transaction is a very expensive mistake. A car loan with a double-digit interest rate means you are doing it wrong. + +5. **Not taking the match from your 401k**. Even if you watched John Oliver's show about 401k fees and you are now a born-again mutual fund expense watcher...please, please take any match your employer gives in your 401k. Even if the fund choices have 2% fees, it's still free money. Even if you have expensive credit card debt, which you shouldn't, the match is probably still the right move. You could be making 50% one-time gain on your money; that will cover a lot of fees. + +6. **[Cashing out retirement funds](http://www.rothira.com/blog/never-cash-out-retirement-accounts-when-switching-jobs)** to pay for things, or when you change jobs. This is almost never a good idea. Even if you can do it, you shouldn't. That $20,000 in the 401k from the job you just left looks like it might be a good way to make a down payment on a house. Don't be tempted. It will be much more valuable to you as $100,000+ when you retire, than as the $12,000 you'd be left with after paying taxes and penalties on it in the 25% federal and 5% state bracket. + +7. Buying a house only to avoid **[throwing away money](http://www.thesimpledollar.com/the-nonsense-of-rent-vs-buy-myths-that-ruined-the-housing-market/)** on rent. You need to live somewhere. Renting is almost always cheaper if you aren't sure where you want to live two, three or even five years in the future. Your transaction costs to purchase and then sell a property are "thrown away", as are your payment towards interest, taxes, insurance, maintenance and repairs. (Renting it out later isn't as easy or profitable as it sounds, either.) Even in a hot market, appreciation is not guaranteed, and major repair expenses are not always avoidable. Buy a house if you can afford to, and you know you want to live somewhere indefinitely, not to save on monthly payments. [Edit: owning a house is financially better as you own it longer. Over a short interval, monthly payment calculations alone are not enough to prove ownership is financially better than renting.] + +8. **Co-signing loans you shouldn't**. While there can be some limited reasons to co-sign a loan, e.g. for your child, never co-sign a loan just because your significant other has no credit, or your parents want a better interest rate. If they need a co-signer, it's because they are a poor credit risk. Once you co-sign, you are on the hook for the whole balance, even if you don't have access to what the money went towards. + +9. **Paying a financial planner to invest your money in a mutual fund with a [5% up-front fee](http://www.fool.com/school/mutualfunds/costs/loads.htm)**. Despite what you might have been told, this is never necessary, and doesn't help you in any way. You can buy alternatives with no up-front fees, and lower ongoing expenses. + +10. **Buying [whole life insurance](http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2015/04/is-whole-life-insurance-right-for-you/index.htm)** from someone you knew in college to "jump-start your financial future", even if you have no dependents. You do not even need life insurance until you have responsibilities after your death. If and when you do have them, term life insurance is much more cost-effective. Politely decline the invitation to a free financial planning session from your old fraternity brother. + +I hope you found this helpful, and you didn't see yourself in any of these. Extra points if you can use these to help your friends and family as well! + +Hi, I posted about my horrific experience with Chase unreasonably freezing my funds and threatening to close my account because of their shitty fraud detection system and then refusing to resolve the issue: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/xd9028/chase\_is\_horrible\_and\_i\_regret\_opening\_an\_account/](https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/xd9028/chase_is_horrible_and_i_regret_opening_an_account/)[https://www.reddit.com/r/Chase/comments/xd8u24/chase\_is\_horrible\_and\_i\_regret\_opening\_an\_account/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Chase/comments/xd8u24/chase_is_horrible_and_i_regret_opening_an_account/) + +Since then, I have found numerous posts about people facing identical problems with Chase and thought my solution might be helpful to you as well. So after weeks of Chase refusing to verify my check or help me out in any way beyond "sorry sucks to be you but it's how our system works", including my university intervening and reaching out to them twice, I took the advice from the comments on my previous post and filed a detailed complaint to CFPB about their mistreatment and irrational system, and bippity boppity boo, my funds were released the very next day and they sent an explanation after 2 days. I love how they reframed the entire thing in their response as "They needed time to verify the check" when in reality they refused to cooperate in any way to verify the check, and clearly stated that they think I gave them fraudulent checks and that they would be closing my account in a week. Hope my experience helps you too, I highly encourage you to flag this stuff to CFPB so it is brought forward to the right authorities. +I was mindlessly staring at the BTC/USD curve on Kraken, like I do all day because what else is there to do in life: https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:BTC-USD + +**And then I noticed it... there's a very visible sell wall at $69,420: https://i.imgur.com/4VSnBlh.png** + +I have to say, it is beautiful. Although I hope the buy wall at $69,420 will be even larger than this. + +So what bunch of edgy memelords is responsible for this, you guys tell me. I immediately suspected this subreddit, obviously. Unless it's Elon trolling us once again. +I just realized that DFV is literally more than all in on his GME position. + +From his gains from selling calls he made $13.8MM and to his current cash settlement he's down to $3.5MM from double-doubling down. +His taxes on the $13.8MM will be $5.1MM (37% on over $523,601bracket, yes I'm simplifying this and over taxing him by a bit). + +His current cash holdings are $3.5MM, so he's technically in the hole as far as cash goes by $1.6MM. + + +Legendary. + +Granted, when this is all done his tax bill will look like 11-dimensional string theory. +Amidst all this redacted bull crap, I have not seen any emphasis on DRS BOOK! With the previous popularity in BOOK post we also have been seeing an increased borrow rate. So do not forget the following things. + +1. DRS!!! +2. Change your DRSd shares FROM PLAN TO BOOK. + +I know their has been a lot of back and forth about PLAN and BOOK, but the best explanation I have seen goes as follow: + +We have been DRSing as plan all this time and have not necessarily seen an effect. Since RC has repeatedly spoken as the book king, there is no harm done in changing share holdings to book. No further nuance to it, if they are the same thing still change them to book as there is no harm done and potential gain + +This is a perfectly reasonable take, the ape that initially said this in a comment was a genius. +Amidst all this redacted bull crap, I have not seen any emphasis on DRS BOOK! With the previous popularity in BOOK post we also have been seeing an increased borrow rate. So do not forget the following things. + +1. DRS!!! +2. Change your DRSd shares FROM PLAN TO BOOK. + +I know their has been a lot of back and forth about PLAN and BOOK, but the best explanation I have seen goes as follow: + +We have been DRSing as plan all this time and have not necessarily seen an effect. Since RC has repeatedly spoken as the book king, there is no harm done in changing share holdings to book. No further nuance to it, if they are the same thing still change them to book as there is no harm done and potential gain + +This is a perfectly reasonable take, the ape that initially said this in a comment was a genius. +Source here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/03/02/costco-citi-visa-deal/24253649/ + +Interesting to see this deal and also interesting that not all Citi cards will be accepted, but all Visa cards will be. Thoughts? +First post so bear with me. I'm curious what you guys think of this strategy. + +I would like to own TSLA at approximately $800 a share. If I were to sell a put at $800 expiring 6/23. The premium would profit me roughly $13k, making the break even price $670 per share. + +Would it be worth it to tie up half my account for that long on a 16% roi for 14 months? Would there even be a buyer? I believe I would be getting TSLA for a bargain at that price if it were to get exercised. + +All suggestions and constructive criticism are appreciated. +Whatā€™s your favorite theta gang strategy? Curious to what people most are deploying here. Does it change on market conditions? Would love to learn from your collective mindset. + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/go33mn) +Every good trader I know has extensive knowledge but prefers a couple of tactics that: + +1- work well + +2- he's good at + +&#x200B; + +I'm not that experienced but I've been trading a lot this year with good results. I trade mainly in the Brazilian market with and I'm still trying to figure out a good, basic strategy for the US. My goal is to protect my capital and generate conservative profit (which means \~2-3% monthly in Brazil, 1-2% in the US - ideally). + +I have most of my capital in Brazil, in collars with long (3+ months) puts. In the US, it's mostly The Wheel because puts are too expensive. Messing a bit with jade lizards and spreads (credit / ratio). + +&#x200B; + +What about you? Do you have a "go-to" strategy that you put most of your capital in? +I was looking at investing in some dividend stocks and did some thorough research. It seems these three telecom companies have a good footholding in the Canadian market. They also yield decent dividends (4.6ish percent). Though, I am wondering which one is the best to buy. Right now I am looking at Telus. They are building their fibre network (including in my own neighborhood). I know the other two are as well, but I am unsure to what degree. Does anyone know who will have the most fibre availability in Canada? Have any of you invested in any of these companies? + +Thank you in advance. + +P.S. I am a new investor, trying to diversify my portfolio. Will only put a maximum of $1000 into one of these companies. +I donā€™t need anymore bashing on please. +I entered the market last year right after the crash at 19. Long story short I was up 38% on my portfolio (thought I was a genius) up until the recently tech/growth stock correction. Now Iā€™m barely breaking even. Iā€™ve began to put my money into XEQT and TEC for the long term. I guess I just feel stupid and wanted to vent. I was up over 3200 on my 9200 net deposits portfolio. I donā€™t think Iā€™ll be seeing these unreal gains again any time soon. Just wanted to vent. I know Iā€™m 20 and I have a long investing path ahead. Just feel down. +Hello, I am interested to buy a gold bar for long term investment. Interested to know where you can buy it apart from TD. Is it worth to buy now. + +Also, I only found 1 oz gold bar on TD. Is there anymore than that. I am new in investing in gold. TIA +My wife has a rather sizeable TFSA contribution room(assume approx 15K). She takes care of the family full time and does.not have any source of income. I would like to move some of my savings into my wifes TFSA account. What is the tax implication of moving approx 15K to my spouses TFSA? +The general consensus seems to be that one should just invest in passive index funds with low fees to get the best returns of the long-term. + +1. For those of you not following this advice, is there a particular reason why you are not doing so? +2. This sub is for those "who look to actively manage their own portfolio", but what makes you think you can beat the averages of the long-term (10+ years)? (Fifteen years of SPIVA has shown active funds don't do as well.) +3. If a friend or family member asked for investing advice, what would you tell them to do? + +For myself: after playing around with stocks early on (AAPL did well, RIMM not so much), I've since gone with CCP eSeries and more recently VGRO. Generally content, regardless of the ups and downs. + + https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/imf-says-banks-will-struggle-to-be-profitable-through-2025.html + +In its latest ā€œGlobal Financial Stability Report,ā€ the IMF found banks across nine advanced economies will struggle to generate profits over the next five years as the coronavirus pandemic causes a sustained period of low interest rates. The Fund said the Covid-19 economic downturn will ā€œtest banksā€™ resilienceā€ as they face loan losses and tighter margins from low interest rates. +Please limit discussions about the August CPI to this thread. + +Information about the CPI can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics here: [CPI Home : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) + +The August 2022 CPI data can be found here: + + [Consumer Price Index Summary - 2022 M08 Results (bls.gov)](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) +Fairfax finance blog [had a comment](https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/asx-set-for-early-slide-despite-fresh-wall-street-highs-20200826-p55pbl.html) this arvo // The Age: 'Banks and miners drag ASX down; Zip soars 31%' A lot of people read that, hours after price performance. + +I then got a text from a friend, less retarded but still slower than me however that works, asking if he should put money on Z1P when he gets home; 'is it the next Afterpay?' + +It got me thinking about how 'stonk price up' information flows through different communities / channels over time and then how that money moves. + +This sounds like timing the market, because it fucking is, but I don't want to admit that. I'd rather say this is about correlation between hype + information channel / time = price performance. + +Anyone thought about this or worked on this? +Sup fucktards I have no idea what im doing but i bought 440 z1p stonks at $6. Thinking of selling my more conservative shares to go full yolo on this bitch. $7 a good buy or should i hold off a little bit longer? +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/ywAGqfUAQE) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/ywAGqfUAQE). +Anyone want to pitch $AVA at $0.50-0.52? + +Mr Squiggle says it's resting right on the 100EMA at a level loosely set first on 12-16 October, and there's an RSI divergence between today's price and the swing low on 22-23 December. However, this does look like a down trend rather than a pull back so wondering if anyone has current FA they'd like to share? +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](http://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) +It's time to discuss the /r/ASX_bets meetups. Given it looks like things are escalating, sooner rather than later may be better before the country goes into lockdown again. Thus, below is a poll which will let you say which day you prefer. + +&#x200B; + +The currently planned time is 1PM. That way, the odds of being anywhere dark near any of your weirdos is reduced. Plus it gives you time to get home to make dinner while your wife goes on her Saturday date with her boyfriend. + +&#x200B; + +There will be multiple meetups,one occurring in each city. The way we work out the location within the cities is: We have made a comment below listing each city. Reply to that comment to nominate the pub where you think it's best to do it in your city. up-vote and down-vote the pubs accordingly by preference. Downvoting other cities has no effect. + +&#x200B; + +Now there is some sort of pandemic going on which making in person gatherings a little bit tricky. This definitely excludes Victoria and NSW. The rule for whether your city can or can not have a meetup is: + +1. Does Bunnings currently allow Sausage Sizzles in your city. +2. There is no rule 2. + +&#x200B; + +Sorry Vic and NSW people, but that's just the way it has to be. We are not Qaren, we are not getting news stories about how we fucked everything up for everyone unless it's from us making millions in buying perfectly timing puts before a crash. Feel free to get Angry at whatever idiot decided the lowest bidder is the best way to supply security staff. + +&#x200B; + +I can neither confirm nor deny that this is a secret plan by the mods to get someone to buy us beer in exchange for sugar daddy flair. + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/hyjjpl) + + +EDIT: Time is this Saturday the 1st 1st 1PM (except hobart) Locations chosen are: + +Brisbane:Pig 'N' Whistle at King George Square. But the chance of additional lockdown is rising. + +Perth:Wembley, because it turns out most /r/ASX_bets members are in fact Triangle Tossers. + +Hobart:The Winston + + +Adelaide:~~Undecided(I assume Plucky is bullshitting), you people need to vote or I'm deciding somewhere that all those serial killers will get you (which I assume is most Adelaide bars).~~ +The Malt Shovel. I picked it with Google maps. If it sucks or you all got murdered, it's your own fault. You could have just asked your wives boyfriend for a sec. + + +Darwin:The precient. Because the best place for your wives Tinder dates is also the best place for Autists. + +Canberra:Unconfirmed if allowed. Possibly at the bar closest to ASIC HQ. + +If you state needs bookings, I suggest making one. I will appoint people as needed. +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/n3n55bwp1z971.png?width=1634&format=png&auto=webp&s=2661e747774f8fb45217789c9a732a3627a2ad62 + +Damn I forgot to include the timestamps in the bottom of the chart. What I'm trying to show is that since the peak of June 8th until today the price has gone down from around 340 to 190, and at the same time the OBV value has gone down from 1.38B to 1.34B... + +Imagine us buying up 100 shares to have a price of 340 dollars a share. But somehow the price has dropped 44 % to 190 by selling 3 % of those 100 shares, so by selling 3 shares, they dropped the price from 340 to 190. + +Maybe I'm too smooth brained to explain this correctly, but that is my take on how the OBV value is absolutely saying that NOBODY is selling. + +Don't be afraid of the dip, it's manipulated and wrong, nobody is selling. + +Buy. Hodl. Buckle up! + +EDIT: Beware that OBV alone does not tell the whole story. Just add this confirmation bias to everything else that we are seeing on the subreddit and know that they ARE manipulating. Look at the RRP stock timing, look at the fidelity buy vs sells, look at literally all the good DDs! +YES! you read that right, ever imagined why when you wanted to buy something or something you have talked about comes as an ad in future times? + +Suppose you wanted a TV and you were talking about this to your family or friend or maybe you had searched about TV in your browser, you would have definitely come across An ad relating to it. + +I bet you have faced at least one, either it comes as an add in YouTube/google search or it will come as an ad in Facebook as post. + +^(Might go little deep so could be lengthy) + +**This is because Facebook and Google actually collects all your data** + +This is called Data Mining + +Data mining is the massive collection of usersā€™ data, which is analyzed to find patterns. Corporations like Amazon, Google, and Facebook use the analyses to make more sales by selling this data to companies, who then throw ads in your direction in hopes of you clicking on it and buying their products. + +**How much money do corporations make from your data?** + +Depending on your search results on Google, what you like and share on Facebook, you could be worth as l**ittle as $2**. If we took global earnings from Facebook and compared it to the number of users, on average, each user is worth **around $30****.** + +&#x200B; + +**So the real question how would it make you rich in crypto?** + +now we come to that part were we look at the statistics + +A stat say that in every hour Approximately 5 MB of information*(taken from google)* about us are being collected by The mentioned companies if they have been installed on your phone or anything which supports them. ^(Mainly android because apple is very strict regarding tracking.) + +so going into the math behind it + +1 hour = 60 minutes + +1 MB = 1024 KB + +5 MB = 5000 KB + +So in a day they collect around 5000 \* 24 = 120000 KB of data are being collected + +so if they had to pay us 0.00001$ each KB, in a day you could have got - + +* **1.2$** a day that's equalent to **0.000031 Bitcoin** +* **36$** a month that's equalent **0.00094 Bitcoin** +* **436$** a year that's equalent **0.011 Bitcoin** + +You see the....... you aint poor, you just rich intangibly + +you have the purchasing power to buy a Bitcoin but unfortunately you cant , + +if you had DCA'd these money with proper management you might be worth at least 1000$ by now + +BUT THINGS DID CHANGE AROUND- + +For example Brave browser , that thing is Google Chrome on Steroids, It shows ads but also rewards us with BAT , eventho its nothing much as a reward but hey we are getting something in return. But i love how it works + +Then after all the fuzz about facebook, facebook launched Facebook Study to pay us huge for our data + +i had it for a month, installed the app and got 5$ literally for nothing via paypal + +now google has its own rewarding system but it is reserved to just its recommended members. + +so yeah thats it. + +Edit : THE WORD 'COULD' IN THE TITLE IS THERE FOR A REASON. +Apple shipped 40.4M iPhones, 10M iPads and 4.3M Macs in the third fiscal quarter and gave strong guidance for FQ4 with revenue expectations ranging from $45.5B-$47.5B. Tim Cook also expects services to be "the size of a Fortune 100 company by next year," with major growth in the App Store, Apple Music and the iCloud. +How did your exit go, or how do you envision it? Mine didn't happen anything like I'd planned. + +I wanted to bail on my 36th birthday but learned about an impending reorganization and that Iā€™d probably be given a directed transfer from the east coast to our LA office. Sure enough, our regional president called me to deliver the news: move or accept a severance package. + +Which was cool, but besides the package if I held on about three more months another round of my options in our ESOP program would mature, so I negotiated a trial period of the LA job [edit: working remotely]. The three months went by. It wasnā€™t my dream gig; not by a long shot. + +So picture it: the trial period is over. Itā€™s decision day. Iā€™m in the middle of a long drive and my cell phone's in the passenger's seat. My prospective boss is waiting to hear from me. This is the moment Iā€™ve been working towards for thirteen years. + +And Iā€™m *terrified.* I'm about to wad up my entire career and toss it over my shoulder. + +So I place the call. We have the sorry-Iā€™m-looking-at-other-options-oh-we-hate-to-lose-you-blah-blar-blar formulaic bullshit conversation, and that's it. + +The next day I showed up at the office at eight AM, told our regional president about my decision, shook hands with several people, some of whom I knew I'd never see again, signed some severance paperwork, and packed my personal stuff into the proverbial cardboard box. Rode the train home in a daze. Had lunch and a few beers and took a nap. I forget what came next. +The first time it was an inner bathroom window, he says maybe a tree branch hit it or the wind? +There are no trees near this window and its an inside window? The outside one is unbroken + +The 2 just happened the other day we found most of the glass outside if the wind broke it wouldn't it push the glass inside? + +Anyways do I open a claims court or just replace and move on? +These tenants are moving out in July. + +For now, i just put some plexiglass but, the for long term I should replace properly. + +Edit: security deposits we're illegal here, so tenant will hopefully pay last month and will simply move out not paying for damage. +I'm ready to buy a primary house to move in and make my current house to be a rental property. However, My dilemma is that housing price is going up really high during this pandemic as compared to last year and hesitate to buy a house now. + +I was expecting it will go down but due to no foreclosures and evictions, there are not much bargain houses out there to supply demands, so available houses' prices are very competitive among the buyers. I still feel like this could be a housing bubble. It might pop when people realize the housing prices are way higher than they should be and stop buying. + + My question is should I wait to buy a house till next year or housing prices won't come down for a while duding this Covid pandemic? How are you guys doing in terms of expanding your portfolio? +I really am just a dunce when it comes to investing. + +I invested in a gold miner a few months ago based on inflation fears and the war in eastern Europe under the assumption that gold was a good hedge in both of those scenarios. + +Is gold just feeling some of the market sell off? Will it come good and this is just part of a short term decline? + +Just thought I'd open the discussion. +I'll admit I don't understand the intricacies of the economy, both Australian and world wide (I'm trying to learn, hence this question) . But how, after the pandemic, people losing their jobs, quitting their jobs, so many businesses closing, the housing market, the food supply issues, how has our economy continued to 'grow' or has the government somehow worked the numbers to hide it? + +I'm just really confused and surprised and interested to see what the future is looking like. +Currently, karma is counted towards the monthly moons distribution even if the moderators remove content from which the karma is earned. The reason for this stems back to when the community use to have an event called Weekend Memes. The intention was to count karma even though all meme posts were removed on Sunday at midnight when Weekend Memes ended. + +&#x200B; + +Since Weekend Memes was discontinued several months ago, this concern is no longer valid today. It makes logical sense to only award moons to content which does not break the rules. **If the act of breaking the rules means being rewarded, then why have rules in the first place?** The consequences need to be consistent. We don't want upvote parties or brigades to be further incentivized. + +&#x200B; + +In this poll, I propose not awarding moons to removed content, whether it is a submission or a comment. If a submission is removed, **comments in the corresponding comment section will still qualify for moon rewards.** However, comments which break our rules in these particular comment sections will still be disqualified from moon rewards. Also to clear up any potential confusion, deleted content will not be affected. If you delete a submission or a comment of yours, the karma from this content will still be counted towards the next moon distribution. In Reddit language, content removal is performed by a mod or admin and content deletion is done by the original author. + +&#x200B; + +As a reminder, this poll has been submitted twice already. Here are links to the [first](https://old.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nb25pk/dont_award_karma_for_moon_purposes_to_removed/) and [second](https://old.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/o4z3aw/disqualify_removed_content_from_earning_moon/) attempts. The first poll had 2.2 thousand votes and 7.2 million moons with 68.7% in favor and 31.3% against. The following poll had a much better vote to moon ratio with 7.4 thousand votes and 7 million moons with 74% in favor and 26% against. They did not pass since the moon decision thresholds were never reached, even though the voting majorities were in favor. Since the moon thresholds for the prior polls were never reached, the proposal technically did not fail. It just is not settled yet. In order for the proposal to be truly settled so we can declare it has passed or failed, **we need a majority voting in favor or against it with the moon decision threshold reached**. + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/oy8aks) +Hey All, + +I'm going to keep this relatively cagey and lax on details - appologies for that in advance! + +For the past 12 months or so I've been working with a tech startup company, alongside my PhD. + +When I started working with them, the company was made up of 2 experienced entrepreneurs who've got lots of experience with successful business start ups and executive level positions in companies (CEO and COO respectively), and my PhD supervisor as CTO. + +I'm not currently employed by the company, and cannot be due to the conditions of my PhD stipend/funding - although there's a gentelmans agreement that as soon as I've handed in the thesis I get to walk straight into the company as an employee. + +They've also expressed intention to award equity in the company through an employee ownership scheme. + +I appreciate that there's a certain degree of risk here, however for the moment there's no downsides - I'm working on something that interests and engages me, whilst being paid to do so via my PhD stipend, and complete my PhD at the same time. This work aligns exactly with the companies goals, so there's plenty of mutual interest to work together. + +I guess what I'm unsure about is how to best assess what's being offered when it's still quite wooly and undefined? + +The company has just secured seed funding through SEIS, and is targetting a much larger EIS raise in the not too distant future. The employee equity pool is currently ring-fenced, but would be subject to dilution certainly in the next round, and probably in the subsequent rounds. At the current share price, the equity award would be valued in the 10's of Ā£k, however given the ambition of the CEO/COO they're keen to see this increase by at least 10x over subsequent investment rounds. + +Anyone been in a similar position and can advise? Would be interested to hear from your experiences! +My 75 YO dad just now made a will and heā€™s going to give my sister and my mom all his assets. My mom will get 2/3 and my sister will get 1/3. + +Iā€™m married right now and frankly not sure where this marriage will go. My wife and I can split up, and my dad was made aware of this. Because of the potential of my wife and I divorcing, he doesnā€™t want to leave me any money because my wife may part with this inheritance. + +Is there a way that my dad can leave me money without my wife taking it from me in case we have a divorce? +I've been thinking about general investing best practices such as: + +1. Don't time the market +2. Bonds are low risk and stocks are high risk. +3. Indexes are better than individual stocks. +4. Keep at least 6 months of emergency fund. + +Do these and other investing best practices apply given the current environment of: + +1. A very high rate of unemployment +2. The Fed printing trillions of dollars and buying assets, inflating the market, and potentially creating monetary inflation. +3. A political landscape that value stock market performance above all other economic indicators. +4. Covid slowing down the economy and adding FUD. + +Have you changed your investing strategy to cope with this new world or are you staying the course? +It seems interesting and if you diversify your bets a bit, it seem you can make some money. But there seems to be many downsides as well + +1. Potential of companies going bust, or not giving a high enough yield to make it worth it. +2. High fee - they charge an upfront of 5% fee but there is no AUM etc. +3. Most offerings do not offer preferred stocks, but rather common stocks. Which may not be a bad thing if you are in it for a long run, but money might be stuck until expiration period after IPO. + +What are people's experience with private equity firms like these? + + + +Edit: Thanks for the comments everyone. I have been passively following this group for a long time and choose to post here as I imagined many here will qualify as "Accredit investors", and wanted to see if people have experience with PE they would be open to sharing. +29m w/ 1.25m NW. + +Wondering how much cash most fatFIREs hold onto in general and in todayā€™s market? + +I have 250k sitting around doing nothing in my bank account which equates to 20% of my net worth. Iā€™m debating on dollar averaging some into index funds and my main long term investment fund, but this current bull run has me feeling I should keep some cash lying around. Regardless, my investment strategy is 10+ years. Any suggestions? + +Hereā€™s the break down: + +56% in a long term investment fund, +12% in real estate (primary), +12% in TFSA and play investing accounts, +20% cash + Consensys, the company that owns MetaMask, just updated its Privacy Policy and fromw now on when you use Infura as your default RPC provider in MetaMask, Infura **will collect your IP address** and your Ethereum wallet address when you send a transaction. + +https://preview.redd.it/iatycyfj0v1a1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ebfd3259625126728be5fe9621071ceb87b1110 + +**Options:** + +**Sataying with Metamask:** + +\-If you want to continue using Metamask, you can change your RPC provider. Alchemy is a good option, and you can find a tutorial [here](https://docs.alchemy.com/docs/how-to-add-alchemy-rpc-endpoints-to-metamask). Another option is to change your RPC to "[http://localhost:8545](http://localhost:8545)" + +**Ditching Metamask:** + +Ther's always the option to switch wallets. You can try other popular wallets like TrustWallet or [rainbow.me](https://rainbow.me) There are other popular options like Rabby, or Coinbase Wallet, but I can't vouch for them as I haven't tried them. + +When using DeFi no one should be tracked. Stay safe frens +Ok apes after this I promise I'll stop searching for words on [gamestop.com](https://gamestop.com), but my tits are tingling and I have to share this last find with you...today I searched ["shorts"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/no5m0y/shorts_on_gamestop_not_available_bullish_af/) and we all had a good laugh but I also serched for "merger" and look what happened + +[don't want to hype a date but...](https://preview.redd.it/3qujaiar79271.jpg?width=1147&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1909f53996399c3cdc2ba72567b8fec3715771b8) + +Tin foil hat time: I noticed the [gamestop.com](https://gamestop.com) search engine search also for similar words if there're no words matching the one you searched. I didn't know about this doll character so I searched for her on google and discovered that her name is not Vocaloid MeRgurine Luka but is Vocaloid Megurine Luka (without the r letter). + +[:O](https://preview.redd.it/ns7f8fwo89271.jpg?width=787&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c2ee1df85d454a1a0e08d3778ce15aca854783c) + +So at this point I'm asking myself if this is just a mistake by [gamestop.com](https://gamestop.com) staff or they purposely inserted the r in Megurine to trick the engine into show this result when someone looked for "merger" info? I guess we'll discover it on 06/22/2021. + +EDIT1: u/perezidentt rearranged the letters in ā€œVocaloid MeRgurine Lukaā€ to: ā€œI unlock via a loud mergerā€ (unlocking the MOASS?) - maybe this is moass speaking? + +EDIT2: u/Emergency-Ad-9903 confirming bias from the wikipedia page, he/she was trying to figure out wtf a megurine luka is: "Her dress was designed to look old fashioned, to make her represent the past, as a form of contrast, the "āˆž" on her neck area represents "sound around"" - to the infinity apes... + +EDIT 3: u/nonflexual thought he was about to kinda "debunk" this, cuz if you look at the picture with the funky pop in the box, it also includes the R in Mergurine. That would mean it's not a misspelling by Gamestop. HOWEVER.... if you look up Vocaloid Megurine Luka funko pop on Google, the spelling on the box from a picture that isn't from the Gamestop website DOESNT INCLUDE THE R!!! That means Gamestop also photoshopped the box right? they had to have. BULLISH + +In response to u/nonflexual contribution I searched and found other stores selling the R version, [this](https://www.entertainmentearth.com/product/vocaloid-mergurine-luka-v4x-pop-vinyl-figure/fu45415) for example, so it's not a Gamestop photoshopped image, I think exists 2 versions of this doll, one with and one without R. +2020 had me lose my job, be unemployed for 6 months, and start a new job in an industry I know nothing about. Needless to say my savings were completely drained. I had to get rid of my dream car for something more affordable. Also accrued quite a bit of credit card debt as well as a few personal loans during the pandemic. With the start of the new job it was daunting thinking of how to pay these down. So, I got involved with crypto trading again end of December with a very small investment into Lumens at .11 a coin. Made it a point to invest whatever I could comfortably invest every paycheck. Bought more Lumens, bought whatever bits of BTC I could, bought some doge (before Elon tweeted, glad he did), and then some VET and VTHO. Also started using my PC to mine small amounts of ETH while I was at work. This last month or so has been incredible. Seeing the small bits I put in grow to what they have has allowed me to breathe a sigh of relief. I started collecting my profits and just got the final payment confirmation for the last unpaid credit card. All of 2020 debts, gone in 2 months. Thanks to crypto and its communities. I know that crypto is way larger than the dollar amounts they trade for, and I truly believe that blockchain is the future. Crypto hasnā€™t made me a millionaire, but I sure do feel like a million bucks. +Good Morning Apes! + +Not to much expected out of today. Friday it appeared as if we had started to turn around with them selling out of a chunk of those ITM puts shortly before close. Only to then get slammed down with even more of them yesterday. GME's price should remain fairly stagnant until the MM sheds the Delta from those contracts and that pressure is lifted, probably towards the end of this week. As they begin to hedge for next weeks gamma exposure they will want to drop the puts, rather than drive the price up into them. + +To me this all seems like standard practice for them. The ITM puts are common when they want to drive the price down without effecting the borrow rate and a great way to get people to paper hand the contracts that present risk for them next week. When these windows come up they only have so many options to try to reduce exposure... + +1. Tank the price to create panic and get people to cash settle their contracts at a loss (August 5th) +2. Slowly raise the price to get people to cash settle for minimal gains (Nov 17-19) +3. Tank the price, then let it slowly raise to get people who held the dip to settle for penny's on the dollar in future value. (May 12-20) +4. Do nothing then cover all at once to shake loose the impatient. (Feb 24) + +This is why I emphasized the importance of far dated contracts because you don't have to participate in their psychological games, you simply wait for exposure and collect profits. This is also why weeklies are so dangerous because of their ability to manipulate the price in the T+2 or T+6 window leading into these periods of high exposure. + +This seems to be the case now as u/yelyah2 gamma sensitivity indicator is showing there is a discrepancy in the options pricing, meaning that the options market is valuing the stock far higher than the lit exchange. Mostly because the open interest on GME is out in January and February. Putting pressure on them to hedge those contracts and increasing their potential exposure. + +https://preview.redd.it/c0iyy1rcki581.jpg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0a6a3f4f31feaf5505897c3c1b385f47ff24d4f7 + +**You are welcome to check my profile for links to my previous DD, and livestream.** + +&#x200B; + +Historical Resistance/Support: + +116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 157 (ATM offering), 158.5, 162.5, 163, 165.5, 172.5, 174, 176.5, 180, 182.5, 184, 187.5, 190, 192.5, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 225.20 (ATM offering) 227.5, 232.5, 235, 242.5, 250, 255, 262.5, 275, 280, 285, 300, 302.50, 310, 317.50, 325, 332.5, 340, 350, 400, 483, moon base... + +# After Market + +Nice climb back up after some of those ITM puts got sold off into the latter half of the day. GME picking up some fairly significant volume, almost 3x our 3month average. Closing back up almost $20 from our intraday low. I think we saw a little buy pressure from a Computershare batch order at market open and some effects from Friday's T+2. We should continue to be a little volatile after this point into the end of the week as the deleverage from those put contracts and start hedging open calls into next weeks ETF LEAP/GME Quarterly Exposure. Thanks for watching. + +\- Gherkinit + +https://preview.redd.it/0cvg2hwjxk581.png?width=796&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0c4b7ff2492ed65147bc74b0b8196e7543fb211 + +Edit 5 3:05 + +Finally breaking free of that long-term resistance several large open put positions are closing out. + +https://preview.redd.it/a7p7jvpgek581.png?width=1370&format=png&auto=webp&s=dca4f9a568758c1dc0c5f829d18c74b6a621544b + +Edit 4 12:37 + +Large orders piling up it looks like we are gonna rip ... + +Edit 3 12:31 + +Trend looks like it's beginning to reverse moving into the midday, there may still be some exposure from Friday's cash settled ITM puts that may drive some afternoon price action. + +https://preview.redd.it/xr8y0j26nj581.png?width=1396&format=png&auto=webp&s=eeb0949da4fa7e3b090f3b80778ac4de548c6a5a + +Edit 2 11:15 + +Failed the test at 150 and dropped down but GME still holding above VWAP we may see more volume come in as we move into the afternoon we are set up well for another test. + +https://preview.redd.it/4efvp2zr9j581.png?width=1394&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae36460bc362f1585b657d9808c9a62048c5aed4 + +Edit 1 10:15 + +Very nice volume for the first 45 minutes @ 2.37M already so of those put contracts being shed and what looked like a large number of retail buy orders at market open driving up price action (CS block order ?). Pushing GMe back up to that 143 resistance were we are beginning to consolidate. + +https://preview.redd.it/3p72lutsyi581.png?width=1413&format=png&auto=webp&s=453c26b7853c76ddc276e32150b9c7c4f81440a0 + +# Pre-market Analysis + +GME sliding a little further in the pm, down almost 5% on an impressive 104k volume. + +Shares to Borrow: + +IBKR - 150,000 @ 0.5% (yesterdays borrowed shares continue to be carried) + +Fidelity - 686,206 @ 0.75% (about 200k borrowed here) + +Here are the puts largely responsible for our price decline yesterday, it does look like they have started shedding some of the $150's, this is a concentrated an **UNSUSTAINABLE** push to the downside. + +[Almost $50m dollars in puts...all the confirmation bias I need to not \\"forget GameStop\\" lol](https://preview.redd.it/q2itgmydli581.png?width=837&format=png&auto=webp&s=1edb4325a781aaa368f8c114935b781cc32d67f7) + +[GME pre-market 1m ](https://preview.redd.it/5cxptagoli581.png?width=1411&format=png&auto=webp&s=b095336e8d9538989822698c63a59873936c7c7a) + +This constant slamming of the bid is also driving greater divergence in foreign market arbitrage, this spread is also unsustainable. + +[CV\_VWAP](https://preview.redd.it/ym0jdf95mi581.png?width=2449&format=png&auto=webp&s=acf410aff6a08c99e2cb305d7a0050f2fb023d5e) + +**Disclaimer** + +*\* Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze. If you are one of the people that use this information to day trade this stock, I hope you sell at resistance then it turns around and gaps up to $500.* šŸ˜ + +*\*Options present a great deal of risk to the experienced and inexperienced investors alike, please understand the risk and mechanics of options before considering them as a way to leverage your position.* + +\**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.* + +*\* No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* +[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkgJD3QaAAEteb9?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkgJD3QaAAEteb9?format=jpg&name=large) + +Right now, each bitcoin 'produced' by mining generates, on average, around $3,226 in losses to miners: + +* Bitcoin Average Mining Costs: $20,095 +* BTC/USD: \~$16,869 + +And the mining net negative has been a reality for a few weeks in a row. + +When considering this quick accounting of around $3,226 of losses for each new BTC put into circulation and that every 10 minutes, 6.25 BTC are issued, we are talking about an estimated loss of $120,975/hour. + +Draw your own conclusions about this... + +This Wednesday (21st), another large mining company demonstrates the difficulties faced in the activity, as Core Scientific filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the USA. + +It's not the first, not the second, and probably not the last. + +With each new event like this one, the bitcoin network tends towards centralization. It's scary to think that a network of over $300 billion USD in capitalization has a Nakamoto Coefficient (NC) equal to 2. With 2 entities being responsible for >52% of all hashrate produced. + +[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkgJqzKWQAIkY9c?format=jpg&name=large](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkgJqzKWQAIkY9c?format=jpg&name=large) + +This is just one more demonstration, among many others, of how flawed Bitcoin's economic and security model is. Or, as the advocates of the leading currency say: "this is just another FUD". + +We need to have an open mind to change our minds based on new learnings. + +Bitcoin was an excellent idea, which emerged during a major global economic crisis and brought a rare innovation to our monetary and technological system, but technology continued to evolve and the BTC experiment brought us previously unknown answers. + +I don't believe bitcoin is the best candidate to continue to bring the innovation we need to decentralized money. Currently, there are already coins that better fulfill some of the functions of bitcoin. + +I have my personal favorites, but I don't want this post to be seen as a "shill post", so I will keep this opinion to myself for now. + +DYOR! +#INTRO +I've been investing in crypto for a few months now. I've certainly made some mistakes by applying trading strategies from my stock trading days to crypto, when crypto has a vastly different environment. One of the things I learned early on was how rampant and widespread stop-loss hunting is. This post is meant to give a brief explanation on what stop-loss hunting is, how to identify it, and how to avoid being hunted yourself. You may have heard that stop-hunting is not a big thing in the stock market or forex. This is true, but I assure you its very real in crypto. + +###Stop-loss hunting is the act of intentionally pushing the price down through a major support level to trigger stop-loss orders, creating a flash-crash which can then be used to buy coins on the cheap. + +*It is incredibly easy to do with anything that has low volume at any point during the day, which is a vast majority of cryptos outside the top 15.* + +--- + +#Example + +####Scenario: +Let's say you're a whale with a large amount of BTC and you have reason to believe there's some awesome news coming out for coin **ABC** which will generate a nice pump, so you have been accumulating this coin over the past week and are sitting on about 50BTC worth. The volume on the coin is currently very low and so you can't purchase any without driving up the price, which you don't want to do. + +####The setup: +First you look at the price, order book, and volume, and note the following: + +* It's currently trading at 105K satoshi. +* The order book is very thin - there's only about 6 BTC worth of buy orders between 105K and 100K +* There's only another 2BTC of buy orders just below 100K. +* anything below 95K you don't care about. +* You know that 100K is a major psychological level and there are bound to be stop-loss orders below it. + +####Time to go hunting and pick up some more coins for cheap! + +1. You place several market sell orders totaling 5 BTC, driving the price down to 101K. +2. You then place some massive sell walls of 4-5BTC at 101.5BTC, hoping to trigger panic. +3. If panic doesn't follow, you make a few more market sells and the price collapses down to 100K. +4. A few more sells and you push the price to 99K. +5. **Now the fun begins**. You have sold off about 10BTC of your 50BTC position, now sitting on 40BTC. +6. Plenty of retail investors had their stop-losses placed at 99.5K, and their orders are triggered. They begin placing limit sell orders (without even knowing) and driving the price down further. +7. The price has now collapsed to 96K, almost a 10% drop, in just a few minutes. +8. There are now 30BTC of stop-loss orders for sale between 96K and 105K, and you buy them all. +9. Price returns to the previous 105K and you now own 70BTC worth of coin ABC. + +In short, by selling 10BTC of your position for an average of 101K you created a short-lived 10% price collapse which you then took advantage of to buy up a bunch of cheap coins from stop-loss orders for an average of 99K. Not only do you now own 20BTC more of your coin, but you got them at a discount. Awesome for you, sucks for the poor holders who you hunted and now no longer have their coins. + +--- + +#Visual + +What does stop-loss hunting look like on a graph? [As you might expect, it looks like a massive spike down followed by significant bull action and a return to norm](https://i.imgur.com/P2Yd8cO.png). Often whales do stop-loss hunting right before pumping it themselves, so you may even see stop-loss hunting followed by a huge run up. + +---- + +#Avoiding being Hunted + +How do you prevent getting "hunted"? There are really two ways. + +######Use price alerts instead of stop-losses. +By the time you get the alert and check the price, the hunt will probably be over. The downsides to this are that it requires a strong ability to remain unemotional - something most people don't have (and why people use stops in the first place). You still have to honor your mental stop-losses, you just also allow them a bit of time to ensure that the move was authentic. In trading circles you'll here this referred to as "letting the candle complete." + +######Place smarter stop-losses. +As you can see from the previous graph, price fluctuations and volatility in this market is significant. The best way to do this is to look at the average order book size, calculate volume and how many sells it would take to crash the price a given amount, and ensure your stop-loss is below that. You should also place stop-losses away from major psychological levels, such as 100K satoshi or even 99K. Place them either higher (106K) or lower (94K) depending on the market. + +I personally roll with option 1 (assuming I even have coins on an exchange, which is rare), but there's nothing wrong with either choice. + +--- + +#Conclusion + +I hope this has helped at least one or two people understand what stop-loss hunting is, why it's important, and how to avoid being "hunted" and having your coins stolen from you. + +######I also have suspicions that binance has bots that chase stop-loss orders. +As an experiment I placed a stop about 5% below the current price on a coin and with only about 1BTC of buy orders between my stop and the price. Within 5 minutes my coins had been stopped out and the price had returned to its previous level. + +#####TL/DR +If volume is low enough, a whale can push the price down through a major support and trigger your stop loss orders and then take your coins from you. + +---- + +Other references - note, none are about crypto so some assumptions they make do not apply such as stop-hunting not being a thing in forex (it's definitely a thing in crypto). + +* [Investopedia - Stop Hunting Definition](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stophunting.asp) +* [Investopedia - Stop Hunting With the Big Forex Players](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/stophunting.asp) +* [Where to set your stop losses to avoid being hunted](https://www.tradingheroes.com/avoid-stop-hunting/) + +Edit: some grammar and a few numbers which I fudged +EDIT#4: To those coming in late to the party, there are a number of counter-points listed in the comments below that offer counter-arguments to this analysis. I suggest that you read them thoroughly. After this post was made, I have revised some of the regression analysis used to support this point. More data would be needed to corroborate this theory. There is qualitative evidence that debunks this post. If you are so inclined, continue to DRS. This is an unpopular position at the moment, but I refuse to provide a directive that one *should* DRS their shares as I feel that approaches financial & contractual advice. I am, however, comfortable saying that I would like to study the effects of increasing DRS with actual data sets, once available. + +See the Edits 2 and 3, as they are significant to the discussion. + +ORIGINAL POST: + +Hello Everyone: +I have read much of the discussion and DD surrounding the number of shares outstanding regarding ComputerShare (CS) registration and now have some evidence to present that as of this week, there are no longer any original, non-synthetic shares out on the market. + +I didnā€™t originally intended this to be my conclusion, but I will now describe my process. +I had first begun considering the effect of locking shares up in CS. + +**Theory:** As shares get locked up in CS, then the effect of each share sold will be more significant because the true ā€œFloatā€ of shares that are actively available to trade (ie, by being lent and found.) + +I obtained NASDAQ trading data for the starting from 9/30/21. The change in daily price was calculated by myself. + +1 - NASDAQ trading Data + + +|Date | Close/Last | Volume| Open| High| Low|Change in Daily Price| +|:------| -------------:|------:|----:|----:|-----:|---------------------: +|9/30/2021| 175.47 |3,177,453.00 |175.00 |185.45 |166.79 |(0.45)| +|9/29/2021 |175.92 |1,899,933.00 |180.09 |184.48 |174.61 |(2.68)| +|9/28/2021 |178.60 |1,770,493.00 |188.00 |190.81 |178.00 |(10.88)| +|9/27/2021 |189.48 |1,470,146.00 |185.92 |192.05 |185.87 |4.32 | +|9/24/2021 |185.16 |1,685,759.00 |191.00 |191.72 |184.11 |(6.08)| +|9/23/2021 |191.24 |1,682,259.00 |192.33 |195.75 |190.60 |1.10 | +|9/22/2021 |190.14 |2,256,593.00 |189.64 |193.50 |186.29 |0.19 | +|9/21/2021 |189.95 |2,633,827.00 |199.36 |199.36 |186.00 |(2.25)| +|9/20/2021 |192.20 |3,941,802.00 |200.00 |202.85 |184.55 |(12.77)| +|9/17/2021 |204.97 |3,950,643.00 |208.02 |212.49 |200.78 |(1.40)| +|9/16/2021 |206.37 |3,058,217.00 |202.33 |216.55 |201.15 |1.85 | +|9/15/2021 |204.52 |2,310,407.00 |197.00 |204.87 |193.75 |5.28 | +|9/14/2021 |199.24 |2,141,631.00 |200.65 |204.62 |195.00 |(4.16)| +|9/13/2021 |203.40 |4,334,068.00 |193.75 |208.88 |191.50 |12.99 | +|9/10/2021 |190.41 |3,042,648.00 |198.41 |202.16 |190.00 | (8.77) +|9/9/2021 |199.18 |7,511,458.00 |180.09 |202.00 |178.00 |0.38 | +|9/8/2021 |198.80 |5,173,566.00 |201.86 |206.88 |190.68 |(0.20)| +|9/7/2021 |199.00 |2,501,178.00 |206.25 |209.90 |196.10 |(3.75)| +|9/3/2021 |202.75 |2,664,005.00 |212.05 |216.27 |198.84 |(10.77)| +|9/2/2021 |213.52 |1,855,618.00 |213.86 |214.80 |206.30 |0.55 | +|9/1/2021 |212.97 |4,453,782.00 |224.00 |231.44 |208.02 |(5.27)| +|8/31/2021 |218.24 |3,574,687.00 |212.70 |222.30 |211.46 |9.04 | +|8/30/2021 |209.20 |3,309,584.00 |205.00 |218.19 |203.02 |4.25 | + +Next, I needed a baseline to compare the available float that is not locked up by institutions or by insiders. The Bloomberg terminal is, at least, somewhat authoritative on this. I Have no desire to be digging through FINRA or any other source to determine actual amounts held at the beginning of these periods. I arbitrarily selected August 20th to begin the calculation, because that is the earliest I can recall discussion about direct registration beginning. Do not get too attached to it, since I eventually used 8/30/21, as you will soon see. + +https://i.imgur.com/D1eNYRB.png + +Next, I wanted to find some previously estimated share count as of 8/30/21, however data on this is sparse. u/pinkcatsonacid made her first post was made on August 14, so it does not seem unusual that the process began in earnest around late August. **(7)** On September 8th, u/Disnerd93749203 **(2)**posted that they had a conversation with a CS representative, who provided a range between four and five million shares being registered directly. I have chosen to use this as the base point for our data set analysis, because four million is at least somewhat authoritative, but also that it is somewhat of a moot point because the rate of shares being registered increases daily if this number is truly lower than this estimate. On September 29, u/lnxist posted his estimate of shares registered in CS. **(40** and we now have our current share registration, to be set at 34,800,000. + + +34,800,000 = = = = **4** - Estimated Shares in CS at 9/29/21 + + 4,000,000 = = = = **2** - Estimated CS Shares at September 8 + +30,800,000 = = = = = - Change in Shares in CS + + 2,053,333 = = = = = - Daily Change + +These facts, assumptions, and estimates now only need to be related. I began to consider that of the shares in the float, Apes will eventually lock-up a considerable number of shares. This will be easier than anticipated, given our great numbers and also the significant number of synthetics available. Since Etrade and other foreign brokers are now seemingly having difficulties in locating shares, it does not appear unusual that their settlement practices have failed to locate shares in time. The one broker that doesnā€™t seem to be having any issues in completing the transfer is Fidelity. + +Fidelity seems to have succeeded in both tracking down shares after order fulfillment, so they can continue to transfer over to CS, so Apes are not disrupted on the transfer. Fidelity doesnā€™t have that large of a position held in ETFā€™s that they control, so they need to borrow them from somewhere else. Vanguard and Blackrock **(8)**both own a large number of shares directly and via ETF/Mutual funds, so this would most likely be the first source, given that they have not sold out their positions are quite sizeable and are most likely to be ā€œreal.ā€ This will cause CS to become a blackhole of shares as the back end accounting transitions the assets of ā€œshares ownedā€ to be ā€œshares lent receivable.ā€ This will cause the shares transacted on a daily basis to become purely derived trades of receivables and liabilities, once there are no longer any **real** shares. + + **IMPORTANT NOTE TO CONSIDER: I believe the shares being used to transfer Apes from Fidelity are institutionally owned, lent to Fidelity.** This is the only explanation as to where they would be able to find original shares in a timely basis. Since they are borrowed, this is a liability on Fidelityā€™s books. + +**This part is speculation and not part of the thesis:**Obviously, they do not want to have this in their risk exposure profile, but the liability they have no can also be repackaged as a split-interest contract, or as a short. If you believe GME will go even lower, Fidelity is more than happy to sell you their liability to return shares. Someone else can buy this liability in the hope that it is lower when they eventually settle. + +So the next theory I decided to test is that of the original theory. As some of you may know, short percentage doesnā€™t mean that all shares are transacted as naked, just that at the time it was sold a share was sold and then found after the fact. The stonk-o-tracker is pretty good as an offhand reference for this **(5)**, since they source their data from FINRA. + +What this means is that it is reasonably easy to find a share to sell when the float is large, shares are plentiful within the brokers, and the percentage volume transacted relative to the number true shares in the market is low. In the % Short Vol / Surplus (Deficit) Column, you will see that at the beginning of the month, shares transacted short were around 0 - 5% of the surplus of shares available to be lent between the brokers. They can play musical chairs with the shares all day long until we sell, so there are plenty of available shares to settle transactions, however as we began to register shares in earnest this percentage has started climbing. Between the 8th and the16th we were between 5% and 10%, then between 10% and 20%. Each day was steadily less was containable until about the beginning of this week, 9/27, when the non-institutional float became locked up in CS and the available float became a share **DEFICIT**. Now the only shares available to trade are between institutions, but there is a significant problem. + +**There are more shares in brokerage accounts than shares that are available to trade. CS demand remains high, but the only shares available to trade are shares lent and receivable.** The market will now become purely A/R A/P derivatives of real shares that are locked up in CS, so the effect of selling one share will cause the price to drop every day until a tipping point is reached. Skip past the next table to see. + +Some of you have researched this and suggest that the actual short percentage is under reported, but that is beyond the scope of what Iā€™m trying to do here. + +I assumed 800K Shares were transferred to CS per day starting on 8/31, to bring us up to the 4M that is the basis point. This may be liberal in its count, but again this is an analytical assumption, given that no data is available. + + +|Date | APE SHS IN CS | BARCLAY FLOAT AVAILABLE| SURPLUS (DEFICIT)| SHORT PERCENTAGE| CALC - Short Percentage of Vol| Perc. Short Vol / Surplus (Deficit)| +|:------| -------------:|-----------------------:|----:|----:|-----:|---------------------: +|9/30/2021 |36,853,333 |34,412,851 |(2,440,482) |62.00 |1,970,020.86 |-81%| +|9/29/2021 |34,800,000 |34,473,515 |(326,485) |61.30| 1,164,658.93 |-357%| +|9/28/2021 |32,746,667 |34,503,848 |1,757,181 |71.10 |1,258,820.52 |72%| +|9/27/2021 |30,693,333 |34,534,180 |3,840,847 |67.60 |993,818.70 |26%| +|9/24/2021 |28,640,000 |34,564,512 |5,924,512 |69.80 |1,176,659.78 |20%| +|9/23/2021 |26,586,667 |34,594,844 |8,008,178 |67.30 |1,132,160.31 |14%| +|9/22/2021 |24,533,333 |34,625,177 |10,091,843 |57.00 |1,286,258.01 |13%| +|9/21/2021 |22,480,000 |34,655,509 |12,175,509 |66.30 |1,746,227.30 |14%| +|9/20/2021 |20,426,667 |34,685,841 |14,259,175 |62.90 |2,479,393.46 |17%| +|9/17/2021 |18,373,333 |34,716,173 |16,342,840 |65.80 |2,599,523.09 |16%| +|9/16/2021 |16,320,000 |34,746,506 |18,426,506 |61.30 |1,874,687.02 |10%| +|9/15/2021 |14,266,667 |34,776,838 |20,510,171 |63.70 |1,471,729.26 |7%| +|9/14/2021 |12,213,333 |34,807,170 |22,593,837 |61.40 |1,314,961.43 |6%| +|9/13/2021 |10,160,000 |34,837,502 |24,677,502 |61.90 |2,682,788.09 |11%| +|9/10/2021 |8,106,667 |34,867,835 |26,761,168 |55.40 |1,685,626.99 |6%| +|9/9/2021 |6,053,333 |34,898,167 |28,844,834 |57.60 |4,326,599.81 |15%| +|9/8/2021 |4,000,000 |34,928,499 |30,928,499 |61.80 |3,197,263.79 |10%| +|9/7/2021 |800,000 |34,958,831 |34,158,831 |60.40 |1,510,711.51 |4%| +|9/3/2021 |800,000 |34,989,164 |34,189,164 |60.60 |1,614,387.03 |5%| +|9/2/2021 |800,000 |35,019,496 |34,219,496 |61.50 |1,141,205.07 |3%| +|9/1/2021 |800,000 |35,049,828 |34,249,828 |62.70 |2,792,521.31 |8%| +|8/31/2021 |800,000 |35,080,160 |34,280,160 |62.60 |2,237,754.06 |7%| +|8/30/2021 | |35,110,493 |35,110,493 || |0%| | + +~~Some of you may call this a lot of hog-wash and speculation, but allow me to present some mathematical, statistical evidence that supports, but **does not** confirm my theory. +95% Confidence level Statistical regression between the relationship of the change in daily price and the percentage of the short transaction volume relative to the surplus or deficit of real shares. There is a moderate association in the Adjusted R square column. For those of you unfamiliar with this, see the google definition below, but this is enough to suggest that there could be something more here, if the data were more precise. +The following was made in excel add-ins under the analysis tool pack, If anyone would like to recreate this.~~ + +EDIT #1 - This is supposed to be here +EDIT #2 - Its good that u/OnPoyntz is better than stats at me, since I misread the r^2 correlation coeffecitient in the following image. I am leaving it here because it adequately demonstrates that my theory of price correlating with the shares locked down is INCORRECT. However, the remaining calculations of the CS to trades transacted does indicate that we are still locking more down and that short volume may become more of a "an interest swap" between the back offices than true share purchases or sales. + + +https://i.imgur.com/5oYKpyQ.png + + +EDIT #3 - Once again u/OnPoyntz has a good understanding. If we ignore the outlier activity from the past two trading days 9/29 and 9/30, then we start to see a correlation again (though weak to moderate.) I have added it here as a comparison reference, to show that there is some merit to this theory. The coming trading 10 to 15 trading days will provide more data points as more information is uncovered. + + +https://i.imgur.com/bfSBh59.png + + +**CONCLUSION:** It appears that all shares transacted in the coming days are either going to be institutions selling receivables to each other. The CS blackhole has destabilized the game as brokers can no longer locate shares to transfer. There is some correlation between the change in price and the percentage of share volume that has been transacted without a real share backing it. **APES** own all of the available float. Institutions own the remainder, but will fight amongst themselves for the real shares because there are none left. + +In the coming days, brokers will attempt to rebuy shares to settle trades before the music stops. Today, 9/30, there were many trades transacted that brought the price up at the end of the day. This was what I believe was the tipping point. Vanguard may end up with a mega receivable on their book, while shady brokers like E trade and others will get stuck bag holding. Fidelity will probably be fine, since their shares on hand seem to be plentiful. + + +**Footnotes ā€“ Source of Data** + +1 https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/historical + +2 Here I would post the link to the CS post where we estimated how many shares are registered. +3 Here i would reference the bloomberg terminal post in DD into GME but its not allowed. + +4 https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/py37kg/approximating_how_many_shares_are_currently/?sort=confidence + +5 https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com/ + +6 Here i would reference the bloomberg terminal post in DD into GME but its not allowed. + +7 Here I would put a reddit reference to the direct registration post by Pink but automod hates me. + +8 https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/evaluate/fundamentals/ownership.jhtml?stockspage=ownership&symbols=gme +Hello folks, I'm a \[28M\] Software Engineer working remotely in Germany. + +So far, I've lived quite frugally because of... reasons... I already have some savings that allow me sleep comfortably. + +As a consequence of my lifestyle, I've never owned a car, knowing their maintenance costs. + +Well, it changed this year. My spouse and I want to buy a car. We are definitely not in need of a car, but it is very tempting to know that there is a machine outside that will allow us to travel whenever we want to. + +I'd like to buy a new car instead of a used car. I did some research on luxurious brands like Mercedes-Benz, Audi etc. but they are very expensive both to buy and to maintain. Therefore, I started looking for other reliable brands and I found this particular model that I fell in love with. It is a brand new Mazda 3. + +A fully loaded Mazda 3 costs less than a base model Mercedes CLA. + +So, I contacted the local dealership and here are the specifics: + +MSRP is **37.890,00 ā‚¬** for this fully loaded Mazda 3 and they applied a new customer discount which is **5.000,00 ā‚¬**. The final price is therefore **32.890,00 ā‚¬**. I have to mention, they give 6 years of warranty and the car won't be available in less than 6 months. + +Even though I have enough cash to buy the car right away, I'm still planning to finance it for 1 or 2 years considering the inflation is expected to be more than 10% in Germany and the interest rate for the loan is 3,99% yearly. + +Coming to my questions, do you think buying this Mazda 3 is simply a very bad financial decision that isn't reasonable considering my personal needs and global circumstances? Or is it a good deal? + +Should I simply wait for another year or two? + +To be honest, I just can't see a future that the car prices will be less than what they are right now. + +I also think melting my money in a bank account is less logical than investing in a car, even though reasoning is not investing. +I'm thinking of relocating to Hungary because of their low corporate tax rate. But are there any catches involved in their 9 percent corporate tax? Does anyone here have any experience with Hungary? So if I run a company will I only pay 9 percent in corporate taxes and how much will I pay when paying out dividends? +Hello everyone! I am an EU citizen and tax resident (Cyprus). I want to invest in SP500 and Nasdaq growth through ETFs, also in some US shares. Im afraid that if in the future EUR will go stronger, but my income will be in US dollars, i will loose big part of my profit, because i living in EU and spending in euros. How can i avoid this risk? Thanks in advancešŸ™ +I intend to allocate about 70% of my saving, plus 50% of my income into a diversified, long-term portfolio. +I am based in NL, but I do plan to move around in Europe (as I have). + +The goal is to reach financial independence by supplementing this portfolio, eventually (but not necessarily) with individual stocks and other investment. +So this is meant to be a basis for my investment, which I then would it like to be "enough" if I decided not to invest in anything else (meaning good enough returns with high enough risk for the goal of financial independence). + +Reading around I found the multi-factor risk exposure appealing, so I created this portfolio sketch: + +ETFs | Allocation +---------|---------- +Vanguard FTSE All-World U.ETF|30% +iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc)|27% +iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF USD Acc|3% +iShares Edge MSCI Eu Min Vol ESG UCITS ETF EUR A|5% +iShares Edge MSCI Wld Min Vol UCITS ETF USD A|5% +iShares Edge MSCI Wld Qual Factor UCITS ETF USD|5% +iShares Edge MSCI Wld ValFactor UCITS ETF USD A|5% +iShares Edge MSCI WrldMmtFactor UCITS ETF USD Acc|5% +iShares EdgeMSCIEurMomentumFactorUCITS ETF EUR Acc|5% +SPDR MSCI Europe Small Cap Val Weighted UCITS ETF|5% +SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETF|5% + +I plan to add sector specific ETF, such as technology. + +Questions: + +* what flaws do you see in this allocation and selection? +* what range of returns could I expect from this portfolio? +* does the exposure to the VWCE need to be this large? I saw it often in multi factor portofolios, do not know why. +* is it sensible to add the S&P500? Should I eventually add the equivalent for Europe/China? +* I do not understand where the exposure to large-cap would come from, if S&P500 would be removed. I often do not see the S&P500 in multi-factor portofolios + +My other investment are very small and non-methodical: I own some crypto and I have a tiny position in crowd-real estate. + +I should also mention that I do plan on buying a house in 5-10 years time. I am not sure how to merge the two issues atm.. + +Any comment or suggestion is very welcome, as I recognize my clear ignorance in the topic and I am proceeding a little bit by tentatives. +Writing this from a throwaway as my usual account is known to a few of my colleagues. + +Effectively, I'm being flown to Sweden next week for a final round interview for a job I really want, and I've been told to come with a salary expectation. My current job, which I'm getting tired of, pays quite well and my salary is set in US Dollars. Unfortunately, this means that, due to the current weak state of the SEK (exchange rate of 8.5 SEK/USD, compared to 6.5 SEK/USD two years ago) it's quite likely that I would have to take a pay cut (in real terms), despite the job requiring more experience and being a more senior position than my current one. + +Is it possible, given that my current salary is in USD, to use this info as part of the salary negotiations? How would Swedes feel about this? If I do ask for an equivalent salary (about 10-20% more than they probably expect me to ask for) will this have a negative impact on my application? + +I have very little idea about how Swedes approach these questions so any help would be greatly appreciated! Thanks! +So I was looking at VUAA in order to invest in it and..why does it move in different percentages ?? + +I thought that the ETF is supposed to completly mimic the index ? + +For example right now VUAA is down 1.77% while the S&P500 is down only 0.09% . +I am a total noob to the investment thingies and I need a general advice on it so that I donā€™t do anything stupid. +I am 26 years old and i can invest around 500 eur per month. What are some good possible options? +I was thinking about buying stocks of big tech companies but people keep telling me to invest in ETFā€™s. Which ETFā€™s are good? + +Note- I opened degiro +Hi, + +basically the title. I have some securities with them and I would like to get a loan against them. E.g. suppose I have 10kā‚¬ of securities and I want to get a loan of 2kā‚¬, blocking the securities, but not having to give any other guarantees. +Hi all, + +I'm based in EU and I'm evaluating an MSCI World index against an MSCI World EUR-hedged index. + +The EUR-hedged fund is almost three times more expensive than the non hedged funds; in fact, in most discussions I read that monetary fluctuations are not relevant over the long term, especially for the stock funds. + +But if we look at USD/EUR fluctuation over the last 20 years, we see that it can have 50% variations at some extremes: isn't that relevant? + +So I thought that it could be worth going from 0.2 up to 0.55 TER if it could save me from 50% currency loss. + +But then, I compared the graph of an EUR-hedged fund against non-hedged ones, tried to overlap with the USD-EUR graph over the last ten years ([https://www.xe.com/it/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=10Y](https://www.xe.com/it/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=10Y)) and I couldn't understand how it works. + +Non-hedged funds are overlapping almost perfectly to each other, regardless of the denomination, while I would have expected the EUR denominated funds (no-hedge) to show variations according to USD-EUR variations. On the other hand, the EUR-hedged fund shows differences with the non-hedged ones but I can't understand how those variations should relate to USD-EUR variations. Is the hedged fund supposed to go up when USD/EUR goes down and vice-versa, or is it supposed to be USD/EUR insensitive? Looking at the graph it doesn't seem neither of the two options. + +Thanks for your clarifications. + Hi guys. + + So Im 25 graduate mechanical engineer starting new job in few weeks but for the past few years i was able to save 7-8 k USD by doing side jobs during holidays. Im affraid that I will spend this money on some stupid things and want to invest it somehow to not feel the temptation. I wonder if will it be smart to invest the money in parking space in city center? I live in one of the biggest cities in Poland so there is a demand for that things but it will take me like 7-8 year before i will have the cash back from renting the place (looking at current parking space rents) or maybe it will be smarter to invest in myself in some kind of training in Finite Elements or something conected with my degree ? + + Thanks for any advice +I'm a very casual investor and just like doing very small trades so I've only made one deposit of Ā£150 into my De Giro account and I mess about with it making small investments and getting some nice modest returns and having some fun along the way. So it was quite a shock to me when I logged in today to see Ā£3,500 available to trade. It's a Saturday so I'm unsure if this figure had popped up last night. None of my current investments in my portfolio have unexpected values - certainly nothing close to that level and I've only ever deposited funds once when I signed up. So my assumption is that this is a silly weekend bug and order will be restored in Monday. Would love somebody to prove me wrong though! :-) +I did this a bunch pre covid and now that events are coming back (..and maybe going away again..who knows) I wanted to share a tip on how I have gotten to go to some very cool yet pricy events for free! + +If thereā€™s an event you want to go to and you have a little extra time (think beer festivals, conventions, even niche events like the 1940s Christmas ball) check their website to see if they need volunteers. Often times youā€™ll sign up to volunteer for a certain period of time during the event, usually 2 hours or so, and then you get to attend the rest of the event for free! Iā€™ve done things like scanning tickets/giving out the entry wristbands, checking in the volunteers at the volunteer table, and even helping with pouring beer! +Old job was toxic. I hated my life. Every day I would go home worried about something. Started going super frugal to max out my investment accounts. Lived a diminished life (hate to say it but I didn't date much.) Did this for 5 years. + +Went back to school, and couldn't get a job. Had to work in a restaurant for 9 months. + +So roughly 3 months ago I got a new job. Complete turn around. My experience has given me added perspective. + +Job yes is boring, pays "only" 50k a year, etc. But I feel I'm already pretty close to maxing on my hobbies. Like, if I had 200&#37; more free time I wouldn't know what to do with it. Weekend is enough for me (especially compared to random Tuesdays I had off at the restaraunt.) Actually, weekend I say is underutilized. Not really doing much except reddit. + +This is tough for me because I've invested so much in the FIRE community. Not only just reading r/fi and blogs, but I've gone to meetups, lived my life for super frugality, etc. + +What do you think? +First DD post, wanted to give back to the pennystocks community. +Going to just go straight into it: +Atari has a market cap of *154.797M* with a low float of 173.63M shares(compare this to e.g. AMC's float of 285M) and currently trades around *60 cents*. + +It owns its own cryptocurrency, the [Atari token](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/atari-token/) which **itself has a market cap of $113M**. + +If you haven't heard of NFTs yet, I highly recommend looking into it as its blown up and I personally believe will continue blowing up as it penetrates the mainstream audience further. I just saw a guest mention them on CNBC the other day. [CNBC video from two days ago](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prqHJReP9II). [WSJ coverage from today](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpROwouRo_M). [Reuters coverage from today](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_AugmQpwho) +**EDIT:** An NFT art piece just sold today for 69.3 million dollars, [CNBC link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gv4nx--Ixtc) + +Atari is **setting up a [crypto casino](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-08/atari-partners-with-crypto-gaming-operation-to-launch-casino) involving NFTs** in order to "move the Atari gaming experience onto the blockchain". This idea has been well received, there's a post on the CryptoCurrency subreddit discussing it that I can't link here, but the general consensus is that it's a good idea with a lot of potential. + +They're also [pairing with Bondly](https://bondlyfinance.medium.com/atari-and-bondly-announce-strategic-partnership-to-launch-dedicated-nfts-followed-by-the-atari-68621044666d), a NFT marketplace. I don't understand the whole impact of this, but part of it is that Bondly will **now make NFTs purchasable using the Atari Token**. This should spike the value of that token, which should then spike the value of Atari. Look at the other NFT tokens like Enjin and Flow etc, they've mooned the fuck out of their minds since the NFT trend started. + +The other part of this is that they're going to create something called the "Atari Metaverse gaming platform" which utilizes NFTs as part of the experience, which I'm going to be honest I have no idea what the fuck this will end up as. But it sounds sexy. + +They also [partnered with ICICB Group](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/03/10/2190694/0/en/Atari-Partners-with-ICICB-Group-and-Grants-Licensing-Rights-to-Build-Atari-Hotels-in-Dubai-Gibraltar-and-Spain.html) to build Atari Hotels in Dubai, Gibraltar, and Spain to start. As part of this deal, they receive a small payment and *5% of all revenues generated from the hotels moving forward*. + +They also have a [new gaming console](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atari_VCS_(upcoming_console)) that also serves as a PC. It utilizes a AMD Zen processor and 4-8 GB DDR4 RAM. Don't know much about this other than it started shipping to initial backers in December 2020. + +Finally, Atari is memeable. *Everyone knows Atari or an Atari game*. A lot of people grew up with Pong, Asteroids, Missile Command, and so on. It's a good nostalgia/crypto/NFT play that hasn't hard mooned like all these other plays yet. + +*tl;dr Atari(PONGF$) is heavily involved with crypto and specifically NFTs. there's a lot of potential here as NFTs continue to boom.* +Basically the title. I bought a call option on Friday that expired that day. I couldā€™ve sworn I bought one that expired this Friday, but I am apparently illiterate. + +The option got exercised even though I only had a few dollars in my account, which I believed wasnā€™t possible. I am not a smart woman. + +Anyway. Does anyone know what happens now? My account obviously canā€™t remain negative so I will sell the shares Monday morning, but if the stock goes down what then? + +Itā€™s a Roth beneficiary IRA so it isnā€™t even possible for me to add money to the account. The account is with TD so Iā€™m very surprised I havenā€™t gotten a vaguely threatening email from them yet. + +Edit: itā€™s not a margin account. I had to apply for options and margin and I only applied for level 1 options. No margin, thatā€™s why Iā€™m confused. + +Edit 2: oh boy I didnā€™t expect this to get so much traction. Thank you for the awards and for the advice! + +Edit 3: for those of you not understanding what happened hereā€™s my account history: [call option timeline](https://imgur.com/gallery/exFjb2b) +There has obviously been a lot of movement in canadian cannabis stocks over the past week or two. the major reason why, from what I can tell, is Bidens election and the hope that cannabis regs will loosen in the states, or perhaps even lead to federal legalization. I see a lot of people piling on to these weed stocks but nobody is really talking about the fact that this is the same sort of hype that led to the 2018 weed bubble in pre-legalization Canada. + +Heres the thing that worries me - Canadian companies probably wont get to sell their stock in America even if they do legalize. Sure, we have established legal growers in Canada. America has established growers too. A fuckload of them. most grow medical marijuana in favorable climates like California/Oregon. There are massive (>10k acre) hemp farms across the southern states. many of them do in-house processing for CBD extracts, and are familiar with a lot of the first-gen processing strategies that are still emerging. These companies are positioned very well to satisfy the potential american market. Companies like Supreme, Eve, Aphria and Tilray have absolutely no guarantee to have a share in the American market. + +So I dont really see the end game. unless people are just trying to ride the wave, make short capital gains and unload there stocks on the greater fool, I think this bubble is gonna wreck people like it did in 2018. None of these stocks pay dividends, as far as I know, so i cant see who would want to hold these long term, or even buy them at high prices in the future. Seems to me like stocks are getting pumped back to 2018 levels and everyone is obsessed with cannabis again despite there being literally no change in the industry at the moment. + +I work in the cannabis industry (extraction equipment development) but admittedly have less insight into the stock market side of the cannabis world. I hope I am missing some fundamental strategy or functionality to the stock market here because this looks like 2018 all over again. +I hear a lot of positive opinions surrounding this stock, and several buy ratings and lofty price targets from analysts. It is seemingly for good reason as this stock has an incredible long term chart and seems to never be down for long. + +The one thing that jumps out to me is a 115 P/E ratio. I get being forward looking and that this is a takeover machine, but is it not quite substantially overpriced here? I know Tesla etc has proven that market value and actual value are two different things, but wondering what some opinions might be here. + +GO CANADA šŸšŸ‡ØšŸ‡¦āš½ļø +This is something a few friends of mine constantly bring up, and not being an economist I can only parrot what little I've read written by economists for the general public with little to back it up. It doesn't help that most everyone I know regards economics as a field roughly equivalent in intellectual value as astrology. + +My understanding is that always in the past new jobs are created whenever things have been automated. Production increases, costs go down, and after a time of misery and suffering eventually everyone is better off. The obvious example is the agricultural automation that largely left ~%60 of the population without a job. Eventually the grandchildren of these poor farmers have created countless new kinds of jobs, and have much more and cheaper food on top of it all. + +But what *would* happen if we imagine for argument's sake a world like the one I described in the title? What would we do if every single possible employment opportunity was automated away? Everything from low skilled production, to distribution, to sales, to advertising, to management, to design, to any other kind of work could conceivably, in theory, be done by an advanced enough level of AI and customization. What happens? If nobody is employed, how can there be any consumption? If there is no consumption, then how can there still be production? I am rather hesitant to concede to the point I'm presented in arguments that therefore obviously socialist revolution, checkmate bourgeois scum, sign my scoresheet etc. +While many countries in Europe have the taxes taken straight from each paycheck without entering the workers bank account at all, the citizens of the USA are paying their taxes once a year, is there a specific reason for that? +I align myself quite a bit with a "movement" called Effective Altruism (EA). Effective Altruism is essentially about "doing the most good one can do." + +Influential voices (e.g. The Life You can Save, 80,000 Hours) in EA encourage donations to charities that are rated as being "effective"; however, I have heard arguments that these charitable donations do nothing more than put a "bandage" on the problems instead of solving them by eliminating the "root cause" (where it is often argued that the "root cause" must be eliminated through political means). + +I'm wondering what the economic research indicates on this problem-- is it really valid to characterize charities as not being a particularly effective way of solving problems like poverty? + +I know of research on foreign aid, but I'm a bit confused as to whether charitable donations and foreign aid can really be treated as the same thing. + +Edit: Thanks for the informative answers, I really appreciate it! +My mom told me about a friend that got a raise into a new tax bracket, so she actually had less money. I thought this wasn't possible with the American tax bracket system. +I realise it likely depends on how much growth, or how much public spending increases (on things such as welfare, for example). + +But has there ever been any research into how effective they both are as tools for lifting people out of poverty? Comparing the two. +So I know most people here, including me, generally reject the labor theory of value. + +However, I was reading some of Adam Smith's work, and it just occurred to me that Ricardo and Smith both believed in the LTV. + +How does Smith reconcile the LTV with capitalism, and why would Marx's theory of surplus-value not apply? +I keeps seeing in the news how more jobs are being created and wages are increasing yet millenials as a whole still appear to be struggling. This is often mainly attributed to high student debt but what other factors put millenials at a disadvantage to their predecessors? +Iā€™m sure weā€™ve all seen ā€˜tax the richā€™ as a very popular catchphrase but is it as simple as this? What are the economic effects of high tax rates on higher earners or people with more wealth? +So something thatā€™s been bugging me for a while is this. Relatively simple. Since socialism is ā€œon the riseā€ so to speak lately, debates concerning the topic have returned as well. One side proclaims that socialism never works, and points to countries like Venezuela, the USSR, Cuba, etc. While the other side says socialism does work, and points to countries like Sweden, France, and Germany. Iā€™m just wondering how those Western European ā€œsocialistā€ countries where socialism ā€œworksā€ differ from countries like Venezuela, where socialism ā€œdoesnā€™t work.ā€ Thanks in advance! +Better if I get both absolute terms and breakdowns of relative terms. And I guess there would be multiple industries like aviation, research and development, manufacturing etc. But id like to leave to leave this open ended as to get both general and specific information +I understand that after Bretton Woods, foreign currencies were pegged to the dollar. +But today, the exchange rate varies minute to minute based on demand for a particular currency, which mostly depends on the magnitude of trade from & into that country. +So does the peg exist now? +All I was trying to do is find a chart of US deficit, preferably as a percentage of debt, over the past decades. I've tried the world bank and [treasury.gov](https://treasury.gov) but the best I could find were some single year reports. +How can people have so much faith in a company that makes no revenue from their massive retail presence overnight. Really shows how they definitely must be a failing business. +coinbase seems to work fine, "not your keys not your bitcoin" but I trust coinbase more than I trust myself not to lose a hardware wallet in 10 or so years + +EDIT: Wow, this, um, attracted a lot of thoughts. Thanks for the constructive discussion - interesting to see everyone's opinions, seems to be a lot of people who don't trust exchanges, and that makes sense, but a history of losing valuable stuff leaves me with my original post. +http://xvg.keff.org/ + +Utterly disappointed. Not only did they fail to deliver their "reason-to-be" update by the end of Q4 2017 (which was delayed twice already this year), but apparently, the product doesn't even work. I can't believe a coin like this has managed to penetrate the top 20 rank on CoinMarketCap. + + + +***Edit***: For everyone who thinks these are Tor addresses, here's a website where you can look up Tor nodes. Notice how none of the IPs being listed in that site appear as a Tor node: https://www.dan.me.uk/tornodes + +How good is [this](https://www.quantopian.com/lectures) series of lectures for someone with a programming background but little to no financial background? Would you recommend any better resources? +Hi community + +&#x200B; + +I have read all posts in this subreddit. Most of people do not suggest the indicators/TA. I am a little bit confused and want to just clearify it. + +\- Are indicators useful at algo-trading? +\- Which topics are good with algo-trading? (I do not ask any strategy, just main topic.) + + +Good trades, thanks +I read yesterday that in Canada, it now costs more to ship a barrel of oil via pipeline than the barrel of oil is worth. This fact makes me question whether even the big pipelines will survive the oil crash. I realize the pipeline companies all have longterm contracts, but with many of the smaller oil companies facing bankruptcy, will there be any oil to ship? + +Does anyone think even the large companies like TC Energy and Enbridge are still safe? +Iā€™m having a hard time seeing SCRā€™s 2.32B Market Cap justified. There are just too many unknowns. + +First, the bill passing is no guarantee. Yes it is likely, so the ~$2.80 share price made sense, but the current price implies certainty and market domination which makes no sense. If the bill gets delayed, or rejected, the share price could plummet. Legalization could even still take several months to come into effect, providing another opportunity for the price to drop. + +Second, whoā€™s to say SCR will even get a significant part of the Canadian market share? Yes theScore is a Canadian company and will have some brand recognition, and already has a well-used Mobile Sports app but DraftKings will surely enter the market, FanDuel, Barstool sports book, etc. These companies have a lot more cash and a lot more power. theScore is also a popular app south of the border but the betting app has not seen the same success. Why were they not able to take more of the market share from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM down there? + +Third, I know Ontario has said they will welcome the private market, but will the other provinces do the same? Gambling licenses are under provincial jurisdiction and I think some (maybe BC, Quebec) would try to do state-run sports betting. This to me is another question mark. + +Just curious what you SCR holders have as your price target / justification for still holding at these very high speculative prices. Full disclosure : I owned SCR from about $1.40 until $2.70 when I sold because I couldnā€™t understand the valuation and there were too many question marks. In retrospect, I wish I just sold my original stake and let the gains ride but too late šŸ¤·šŸ¼ā€ā™‚ļø + +EDIT: one fourth point I forgot to mention is what does this bill mean for offshore books like Bet365, etc? Canadians today can legally bet on Bet365, Sports Interaction, Bet99, Bodog, etc. The sports books just canā€™t TAKE them in Canada. These companies promote on TSN/Sportsnet all the time too and avid sports watchers like myself are obviously very aware of them and many use their services. Will the new legislation outlaw these books? Or couldnā€™t they just adapt and take bets in Canada once the legislation passes? Why isnā€™t the new sports book Bet99 a billion dollar company? Itā€™s got people like GSP and Matt Barnaby backing it and is advertised on TSN all the time. (they do have shitty odds though...) +Good morning Canadian investors! + +As I understand it Canadian pension funds are audited (once every three years?) to ensure the pension coffers are fully funded. + +These funds are separated from the companies financials, meaning in the case of bankruptcy the pension cannot be collected from creditors- in fact the pensioners become creditors. + +Is something like we saw with sears a few years ago a worst case scenario? The pension was underfunded, the company went broke and the pensioners lost benefits and 30% of their monthly payments? + +Or could it theoretically get worse than that? Would there ever be a scenario where employees lost their entire db pension? +Does anyone notice wealthsimple trade's stop-loss doesn't work? At first, I thought it's because the stock price moving too fast, and WST only allows you to set stop price equal to the limit price, it never hit. But today I was looking at the level2 quote, lots of bid orders at my S/L price for at least 10 mins, didn't sell a single share. Anyone had the same experience? +There are lots of posts about: + +* "I make money, but it's not what I love." + +I recently stumbled on the graph below and it definitely explains a lot of these feelings and puts it into context. + +This site has the [Venn diagram](http://www.performanceexcellencenetwork.org/pensights/finding-lifes-meaning-quest-discover-ikigai-pen-august-2017/). + +* What you love is either a ***mission*** or a ***passion***. + +* What you are good at is either a ***passion*** or a ***profession***. + +* What you can be paid for is either a ***profession*** or a ***vocation***. + +* What the world needs is either a ***vocation*** or a ***mission***. + +* What you love & what the world needs is a ***mission***. + +* What you love & what you are good at is a ***passion***. + +We all strive for ***ikigai***, but most will not find it. However, if you find a **vocation** or **profession** during your years working for financial independence, then you can focus on either a **passion** or **mission**, since you do not need anyone to pay for it. Effectively, you have created your own ***ikigai***, over a lifetime, rather than simultaneously. + +If you had a *profession* during your earning years, you will likely be searching for a *mission* later. If you had a *vocation* during your earning years, you will likely search for a *passion* later. + +As a CPA (working in finance), I'm squarely in the *profession* category. The world doesn't, really, need us, I'm good at it, I get paid for it. I do love parts of it. There are days when I *feel*, "satisfaction, but a feeling of uselessness" on the days I love it. Other days, I *feel*, "comfortable, but a feeling of emptiness" when I'm doing work the world needs, but I don't love. Therefore, I'm constantly searching for a mission. I know what I want to do post-career, that will negate these feelings. + +I can't speak to the software engineers here, but I imagine, you're in the section between profession & vocation in terms of feelings. Depending on where you work, you may even be between the mission & vocation. Therefore, you're likely searching for the passion, post-career. + +Hopefully, this idea, and chart, can help people answer this question on the sidebar: + +>Discovering and achieving life goals: ā€œWhat would I do with my life if I didn't have to work for money?" + +I believe it also speaks to this portion of the sidebar: + +>Financial Independence is closely related to the concept of Early Retirement/Retiring Early (RE) - quitting your job/career and pursuing other activities with your time. +Is there an easy way to figure out if its worth it to buy back a put or covered call option or let it expire worthless when it's already up 90% at the beginning of the week after a 30+ day theta decay? For example, I have WISH 7.5 covered calls that are now trading at 0.025 and 91%. Does it usually make more sense to buy it back and use the capital or the stocks themselves on backing a new theta play or to let it expire and go again after the weekend? + +Not sure if there's a specific strategy in these scenarios or if every situation is different. +I'm in a super small town that is surrounded by 4 growing cities. Im my eyes, this town is perfect for development because it has the best of both worlds. It's 40-50 min away from a top city and good jobs but still rural enough that there is a lot of farmland and outdoor recreation activities. The schools in this district are also very good compared to the rest of the state. + +I see it as the perfect town for well-paid zillenial parents that want to prevent their kids from becoming iPad Zombies. My background is in marketing and entrepreneurship so I am confident in being able to articulate the value to the target customers. + +The town itself has not seen any development in the last 20 years except for a new 50 house subdivision being built along with additional capacity added to the sewer system. The political players needed to get the project done are aligned with vision or can be removed. + +There are 6 key plots of land that are available for purchase: 100ish acres for around 14-16m USD. The land is in an ideal spot for a downtown commercial development as well as additional housing needs. + +&#x200B; + +I've always fantasized about wielding total control over a town but never imagined a scenario where I could see it playing out so clearly. Yes there are tons of risks but on general i think this could be a solid opp. + +&#x200B; + +If you were in your 20s, had access to capital, and the willingness to devote the next 20 years to dominating a town, would you? +I own three rental properties with a total value of $400K. All three are rented, bringing in a gross $45,600 per year in rent. From that, I have to deduct property management fees, property taxes, insurance, and miscellaneous maintenance costs. So I estimate that my gross is closer to $35K/yr before taxes, $25K/yr after taxes. That's about a 6.5% return on my investment. The properties themselves are not located in an area where I expect the prices to increase in any significant way. Over the next 10-20 years, the properties will require more maintenance costs and get less in rent relative to current numbers. + +On the other hand, VGSIX (the Vanguard REIT) has returned over 10% since it was started in 1996, and returned over 7.7% per year in the past 10 years. If I were to have invested my $400K in VGSIX, the 10% growth in the first year would be added to the invested amount and compounded the next year. Any money that I get from my rental properties is cash in pocket, which is nice, but I need to invest it in something to compound the growth. Also, rental income is taxed as ordinary income while I could lower my tax cost on the REIT by holding onto it for more than a year and paying long term captial gains rates on it instead of ordinary income rates. + +As far as I can tell, it makes more sense to put my money in VGSIX than into real property. There's less paperwork and hassle, no tenant or property manager issues, etc. And the net returns appear to be higher, so I get more money for less work. + +What am I missing? +To all the landlords on this forum, how many rentals do you own? can we get a breakdown of how much cash flow you get from your buildings each year? + +What is your path of building wealth in real estate if you make 5,000 after expenses and paying debt on one building as an example ? + + +I've decided to continue the monthly updates for now because they help me mentally sort things out, provided that the are still seen as relevant to the subreddit. + +Two months into retirement at 38 with a planned 3% SWR on a starting value of 1,025,772. That works out to 2564/month, or 2064/month with $6000 yearly in lump expenses. (2k vacation, 1k property tax, 500 professional license tax, 500 christmas, 500 car insurance summer, 500 car insurance winter, 1k unexpected) + +This month's spending was $2640 (up from $2352), including $500 from the yearly column for "summer car insurance." So we're 3% over budget for the month, but 3% under for the year. We brought in $1127 thru my wife's job (which she likes and would do for free) and some old book royalties of mine. Our withdrawal was $1513 this month, which is effectively a 1.74% pro-rated SWR (1.46% pro-rated SWR average this year). + +The portfolio appreciated again this month from 1,039,471 to 1,056,090 (a 1.60% increase), which dropped back down to a new total of (drum-roll) 1,054,577 after paying the bills (2.8% increase in two months, after expenses). If the year-end value is higher than the starting value, I might recalculate a new 3% SWR value and go forward from there since 3% is in historically safe territory. Or I might reset the clock at the end of the year and set aside everything over one million as a separate fund to draw from without guilt, while maintaining a 3% 30k withdrawal goal. + +Spending was a lot higher this month, and I can't really see a good reason, but I'm not too concerned given that I don't have enough data yet and that the market is doing well. I don't budget per se, just monitor. Accomplishments for the month include more reading (especially paleontology and astronomy), more housework, more yardwork, more cooking, more running (now up to 25 mpw with a goal of a 1:25 HM in Oct and 3:00 FM in Dec), more weightlifting, completing the vast majority of my CE requirements for my profession, faster Rubik's cube solves, seeking out volunteer opportunities, learning to play the taishokoto, continued daily journal, visiting old places from my childhood that I had not seen in thirty years, first ever river kayaking, first ever barbecue as the grillmaster, doing my first painting (the startup supplies for this were expensive now that I think about it), and planning upcoming vacations. On the downside, I played way too much Diablo 3. + +I again only spent about 5-10 minutes on the subreddit this month due to a lack of interest. I'm too busy with life. I have noticed that my stress levels are way down. A friend of mine said the sense of dread from my face was now gone. + +I resell full-time and it barely covers the bills most years. During this pandemic, I luckily had enough inventory to get by until my state reopened. + +I have no healthcare insurance and never applied for PUA / $600 weekly unemployment because deep down I feel like I don't deserve them at all. Other people are in a much worse position. + +I feel like I have to be on my death bed before I even consider depending on a government program. If I didn't need the money, I would have refused and/or donated the $1200 stimulus check out of principle. + +I feel like a contradiction. Is this a common theme? What are your thoughts? +I pay my rent with Bitcoin, I buy my groceries with Bitcoin and yes, I buy my coffee with Bitcoin. Listening to that-other-bitcoin-subreddit and the-fork-that-shall-not-be-named-subreddit, you would think that Bitcoin has entirely ceased to be a viable medium of exchange. I disagree. My transaction fees are less than a penny when buying coffee, and they are about to get a whole lot cheaper once Lightning Network and Rootstock get deployed. + +When I began exchanging my fiat into Bitcoin years ago my goal was to use it to buy things, not to hodl. This was at a time when Bitcoin was boring in price terms anyway. The problem was that no merchant accepted my currency. I knew this to be a temporary state of affairs and so it did not bother me and I kept holding onto my currency and pushing for adoption where I could. + +In the spring of 2017 I received my first crypto debit card from Cryptopay. It bridged the gap between my magic-internet-money and the real world. It was exhilarating to finally be able to use my Bitcoin daily. Unfortunately, the card held euro and so it did not really feel like I was spending Bitcoin, as I used the mobile app to manually refill the card by exchanging Bitcoin into euro. + +Fast forward to the summer of 2017 and TenX came along promising a card that automatically converted, at the time of the transaction, between Bitcoin and whatever currency the merchant accepted. I was one of the first to order their card, which was a real challenge at the time due to their extremely buggy software. Late in autumn my card arrived and I knew things would never be the same again. + +There was one more obstacle still remaining for full adoption. I kept falling victim to Greshamā€™s law, which states that bad money drives out good money. I wanted to hold onto my crypto which increased in value and preferred to spend my fiat which decreased in value due to inflation. The only way to escape this was to go full crypto. The value increase of Bitcoin already meant that 95% of my money was suddenly in crypto. And so I decided to go full crypto and to never look back. + +TenX works similar to an exchange in that transactions on the platform do not occur onchain. When I buy coffee I pay neither a transaction fee nor an exchange fee. The merchant pays the fee to Visa and the card issuer, same as with any debit or credit card. Transfering 0.1 BTC to my TenX account cost me $2 (100 sat/byte) and took 48 hours. Perhaps not ideal but good enough, and it allows me to purchase 1000 cups of coffee with an average transaction cost of 0.2 cents per cup. With TenX aiming to get 1 million of these cards into circulation in 2018, I feel that the world is about to get a whole lot more interesting, at least here in the EU. + +If Bitcoin were to crash 90% tomorrow, I would still buy the dip with my next paycheck. But unless Satoshi were to dump his stash at the same time as the US, EU and China all tried to ban Bitcoin, I doubt we will be fortunate enough to get such a steep discount. +This will be our first recession as independent adults. We have followed the flowchart and are mostly at the final stage with the occasional fluctuation in our emergency fund between the 3-6 month mark. + +Is cash king during a recession? Are we better to lower our cost average of our Stocks and Shares ISA's on a monthly basis? What steps are you going to take over the next year? +Want to find out why **70% of traders lose money every quarter?** This post is also for you. + +`If after reading you conclude this is the only post that will give us the very best shot at releasing short-sellers grasp and control of the stock, and/or cause MOASS, please, share the living daylights out of it until your fingers bleed. (obligatory of course)` + +I have put a great deal of time into producing this DD and finally, it's finished. There is some great information here for smooth and wrinkle brains alike. The aim is to give everyone a clearer understanding of our position, how we can improve it and how we can finally put an end to FUD when armed with this information šŸ–– + +**TL;DR? You should if you want the real juice.** + +**Let's discover**\- how **Brokers**. the **DTCC** and **Short-Sellers** are at the centre of it all with abusive lending practices, Contract for a difference and how ownership technicalities could result in NON-DRS'd Investors holding the bag if your Broker goes in default. + +You can also expect to read in detail, how the odds are stacked against retail investors; and the critical differences between Brokers and Transfer Agents in an easy to understand rundown and comparison table. + +Ultimately, you will learn for yourselves the disadvantages Retail Investors face and how to turn the tables on a system designed to release you of your money and rights. + +`Don't forget to upvote and award if you like this post. I do not care for upvotes, I care for my investment. upvoting and awards increase viewership. I am not in this for the fame. I do not and will not seek fame, notoriety or financial gain for the tremendous effort and sacrifices I make to benefit our collective interests. I have skin in the game and I will get my tendies the same time as the rest of you.` + +&#x200B; + +**Let's begin -** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/yq1n39q7zl481.jpg?width=1073&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb08d9be2b72d3e30d75c7bcea0d556197dda01c + +As you may know, [Securities Lending](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/securitieslending.asp) is a perfectly legitimate practice for **owners of a security** to earn a yield on their Long term investments or for a broker to earn yield from their securities that they hold in their name ***(that's right, retail traders own the right to our brokers underlying assets)*** *Said differently; our brokers are the owners of securities that we have purchased a right to.* + +***Please Note:*** *It is important to state that in many cases even the Broker does not own the underlying asset; in most cases, it is the DTCC that owns it under Street Name:* ***Cede&Co.*** + +*Brokers tend to adapt the* ***CFD*** *(Contract for a difference) model, meaning; It allows investors to trade the direction of securities without owning the underlying asset). The brokers act more like middlemen between the trader and the DTCC.* ***To understand how that works;*** *The costs of any given trade are factored into these two prices (known as the* ***offer*** *and the* ***bid***\*), so you will always buy slightly higher than the market price, and sell slightly below it.\* + +**Moving on -** + +This is important because no matter the direction of the stock price, the Broker assumes zero risk on holding those assets; the investors that have purchased a right to those securities do. Prices going up or down is a non-issue for the Brokers/DTCC because they never paid for it; retail traders did. + +Because the Broker assumes zero risk, there is an incentive to lend out as many securities as possible to earn the maximum yields without regard for price movement. This in turn, drives the price down of those securities due to that lack of incentives to stop their excessive lending practices **AKA,** Overselling. + +**Think about that for a moment.** Can you imagine an unsuspecting trader paying **you** the full price for a security that you'll own in your name/DTCC, giving **you** the ability to lend that security for profit and retain their profits irrespective of price movement? Win-win, am I right? + +Have you ever wondered why so many retail traders lose money? This is it! + +**Being a broker, you/DTCC own a bunch of securities that you didn't pay for, you will not lose any money if the price of the security declines, and your guaranteed profits from lending out those securities to short-sellers.** Is it a good deal that retail traders enter into with brokers? I think not. + +There is a reason why Brokers terms and conditions are 40+ pages long; not many read or understand them. + +Brokers lend out securities that **result in a lower stock price,** but that doesn't matter to Brokers if they continue making exuberant profits from share lending practices. This results in retail traders incurring a loss on a lower stock price so they might as well keep lending them out if they are not the ones that are holding the risk, especially so; if the Broker participates in Contract For a Difference (CFD\*\*) where the retail traders loss becomes the Broker's profit.\*\* + +**If it looks like a scheme and smells like one, maybe it is one.** + +It is important to note: If all retail traders owned their shares, the number of borrowable shares on the markets would be very scarce beyond 20% because the borrowing fee (yield) would be very high. This would not be worth the implied return short sellers expect. **<** ***This is how it should be to prevent over-selling.*** + +***Let's tie all this together-*** + +\>Securities Lending - which is the process of temporarily transferring ownership of shares or bonds to another party, such as short-sellers. The companies earn a fee in return for loaning out their holdings. + +**Source:** [**https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/securitieslending.asp**](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/securitieslending.asp) + +**To put that all into perspective-** if all retail investors owned their securities, 3rd parties (Brokers), would not be able to flood the market with securities for maximum upside with zero downside, which results in a cheap but reliable supply of shares for short sellers to borrow. ***(Remember, the more they borrow, the more they increase supply, thus negatively affecting the price.)*** The prevention of e*xcessive share lending would stop this.* + +**Let's look at the risks of holding securities with a Broker; Smoothbrain style-** + +**1.** Retail pays for a right to a profit or a loss **(CFD or not)** of the ~~Broker~~\>DTCC's underlying asset. + +**2.** Broker profits by lending out the shares that we **own** a Beneficiary right to and then transfers ownership to short-sellers by lending them.Ā  + +**3.** Retail does not profit from the lending ***(because Retail does not own them, Brokers/DTCC do).*** Retail instead loses value on their holdings because all brokers combined have lent too many shares **(Over-Sold)** thus, resulting in a lower/suppressed share price. ***(Which is happening right now)*** + +**4.** Because the Broker uses the CFD model, retail traders loss now becomes the Brokers profit. (It is a double-edged sword, Brokers profit from lending our shares to induce a lower price to profit from the difference. **Are you angry yet? I am!** + +**5.** Now, let us assume the [Broker over leverages](https://www.moneylife.in/article/in-2020-highest-broker-defaults-in-20-years-nse-expels-18-brokers-2-firms-wind-up-voluntarily/62290.html?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=Xudwu5_OLC_CaLAqDWyaY.Cxm7CV7U_vNE1ClPNRmfk-1641144036-0-gaNycGzNCKU) themselves on Evergrade Bonds **(Looking at you Fidelity)** and if it all goes pop\*\*.\*\* Broker goes bankrupt whilst the shares you have a right to are on loan. + +**Now, pay close attention -** If your Broker does go Bankrupt whilst the shares you have paid for have been loaned out, you are not protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). Only the cash collateral received for the securities is typically protected. + +**How Nuts Is That!** + +Retail traders now lose insurance on the securities $500k, but keep the $250k insurance on the cash you paid for them. + +**Source:** Fidelity E-mail Communications. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/uopbw2fsgl481.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc57b840f14f8adedd61a3e75af81d9755dea232 + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r6cbw2/this\_is\_a\_hysterical\_read\_do\_not\_read\_if\_you\_have/?utm\_medium=android\_app&utm\_source=share](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r6cbw2/this_is_a_hysterical_read_do_not_read_if_you_have/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +&#x200B; + +**5.** Retail is left holding the bag with no shares. But not to worry, at least you get back your principal investment back šŸ˜” + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Transfer Agents-** are very different in comparison, if you want to learn more about what a Transfer agent is, [click here](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/transferagent.asp). + +* But to summarise my point; With a transfer Agent you have full ownership (**No More CFD)** of your shares and it is at your sole discretion if you want to lend them. +* If a transfer agent goes bankrupt, your name and the number of shares you hold would still be a book entry on GameStops shareholder register proving that you own those shares. This is why no insurance is necessary when you have Directly Registered your Shares (DRS). + +So why do they provide insurance at brokerages? Is it because there is a risk of you losing your securities and the money you have paid for them? Yes, I'm afraid so. + +**Source:** [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r6cbw2/this\_is\_a\_hysterical\_read\_do\_not\_read\_if\_you\_have/?utm\_medium=android\_app&utm\_source=share](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r6cbw2/this_is_a_hysterical_read_do_not_read_if_you_have/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +There is only one way to mitigate this risk and that is to not participate with CFD brokers and share lending practices. + +You see, DRS isn't just about locking the float; it is to cut the head off the snake by taking away the biggest asset short-sellers have, the securities that they have taken temporary ownership of. Short Sellers own the float, this is how they control it, they control our brokers/DTCCs' shares that we have paid for, and if the markets go to shit and the Brokers bad bets turn red, retail are the ones holding the bag. + +To put a stop to this, and to ensure safety and to help stop market manipulation, all we have to do is take back ownership of the float by DRSing your shares. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +As an Investor, it is always prudent to be armed with enough information to make an informed decision. To help with this, I have compiled a detailed comparison to help you understand the key differences between Brokers and Transfer Agents. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/15ug3umzjc981.png?width=1698&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ddd2891703c28195f071a5f1e4e7637599f2dd + +&#x200B; + +# Have you seen what the google snippets say when you search broker fraud? > surprising how deep you can go down the rabbit hole from a simple google search. + +&#x200B; + +[Google search: Broker Fraud](https://preview.redd.it/7dyv3wugbc581.png?width=3504&format=png&auto=webp&s=86acf12582b347a5c8fb0990f30e8ea0fccff119) + +&#x200B; + +`If you would like to understand what it takes to produce DD for yourself, watch this 13-second video:` [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pj-qBUWOYfE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pj-qBUWOYfE) + +&#x200B; + +# Rules of the road in here: + +Please come and engage in some healthy discussion, ask questions, enjoy, learn and just be your ape self. Any ape is welcome old or young, wrinkle or smooth. + +**If you shill?:** I will not give you legitimacy going around on the (***GroundHog Day Roundabout***) in a senseless argument that has no basis on reality or truth. You will be downvoted and I encourage everyone to do the same to delegitimize disinformation if you spot it. + +I will spot, your silly tactics, and I will call you out when I see; + +* very wordy comments that come to irrational or illogical conclusions. +* avoidance of the main points, and too much emphasis on unimportant points or false truths or flat out lies and avoid **staying on point** when your reasoning and conclusions are challenged. +* slanderous remarks and the use of strong wording when you challenge presented facts to try to convince onlookers that you are right and your is challenger wrong. + +**Godspeed apes!** + +&#x200B; + +**-END OF POST-** >!Read on for supporting evidence and more wrinkles on your brain !< + +&#x200B; + +# Relevant & Useful Posts Below: + +**Fund managers (Blackrock, Fidelity, Vanguard etc) have been growing their business in** **securities lending\*\*** [https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/elon-musk-says-on-twitter-blackrock-helps-short-sellers.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/elon-musk-says-on-twitter-blackrock-helps-short-sellers.html) `Securities lending is a lucrative business, according to` [`an opinion piece by Financial Times`](https://www.ft.com/content/f578f904-414f-11e8-803a-295c97e6fd0b) `in April. The newspaper, which cited a regulatory filing, said BlackRock made $597 million in revenue last year from lending securities.` + +`Musk hit out at that practice, saying ā€œthere is no rational basisā€ for long-term shareholders to engage in that business. He claimed that doing so ā€œdilutes the shareholder baseā€ while giving short sellers ā€œa strong incentive to attack the company by whatever means possible.ā€` + +**IRA shares held in custody are being lent out\*\*** [*https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/refbzp/your\_ira\_drsed\_shares\_held\_in\_custody\_are\_being/*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/refbzp/your_ira_drsed_shares_held_in_custody_are_being/) + +**Computershare AMA Part 1 - Video link with transcript and timestamps!\*\*** [*https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qmnan7/computershare\_ama\_part\_1\_video\_link\_with/*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qmnan7/computershare_ama_part_1_video_link_with/) + +**Computershare AMA Part 2 - Video link with transcripts\*\*** [*https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r5enlt/computershare\_ama\_part\_2\_video\_link\_transcript/*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r5enlt/computershare_ama_part_2_video_link_transcript/) + +**Naked Short game plan\*\*** [*https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pmj9yk/i\_found\_the\_entire\_naked\_shorting\_game\_plan/hciatum/*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pmj9yk/i_found_the_entire_naked_shorting_game_plan/hciatum/) + +**The Dark Pool Trading Fraud\*\*** `Lucy Komisar talks about how Dark Pools and ex-clearing (avoiding DTCC settlement) promote trading fraud & GameStop & other stocks' fails to deliver. How brokers send clients docs` >!"in lieu of dividends" !<`to avoid telling them they don't have real shares` [*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBabqappwWs*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBabqappwWs) + +**"Legal" naked short selling of GameStop explained by an expert at congressional hearing.** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j\_SWgv7TJPI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_SWgv7TJPI) + +# Trading Tips and Understanding Price movement: + +**How to identify** **a flush?\*\*** [*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tovu7DKdL24*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tovu7DKdL24) + +**Buy the dip?\*\*** [*https://247wallst.com/investing/2013/06/20/the-market-flush-when-nothing-works-and-there-is-nowhere-to-hide/*](https://247wallst.com/investing/2013/06/20/the-market-flush-when-nothing-works-and-there-is-nowhere-to-hide/) + +# The only Ape news you will ever need to see: + +Apes need to realise the world is on our side, instead of believing what Corporate Media want you to believe. Want some tit jacking news that is not curated to make everyone believe differently? Check these articles out. + +**Do your own Due Diligence\*\*** [https://gmedd.com/](https://gmedd.com/) + +**Interactive Brokers' Thomas Peterffy on GameStop hearing\*\*** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_TPYuIRVfew&t=2s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TPYuIRVfew&t=2s) `Brokers almost went pop and confirmation DRS is the way.` + +**CorpGovEvent Panel Charles Gradante\*\*** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OChaTm0To1U&t=628s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OChaTm0To1U&t=628s) `The panel talks Gamestop` + +**Fundamental analysis of Gamestop\*\*** [https://gmedd.com/report-model/](https://gmedd.com/report-model/) `Emerging evolution of technology company that delights gamers hinted at by Ryan Cohen, early-adoption and market presence in Web 3.0 technologies leverage GameStopā€™s unique industry and customer relationships to drive new NFT users, significant growth in gaming TAM, and a shift to the majority of revenue derived from digital initiatives and channels.` + +**DOJā€™s criminal probe of hedge funds\*\*** `The DoJ has issued subpoenas as it examines short-selling by hedge funds and their relationships with research firms that publish negative reports on certain companies` [*https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/meme-stock-traders-thrilled-by-doj-s-criminal-probe-of-hedge-funds-1.1694191*](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/meme-stock-traders-thrilled-by-doj-s-criminal-probe-of-hedge-funds-1.1694191) + +**Practical ethics (The GameStop Squeeze)\*\*** [*http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2021/02/ethics-of-the-gamestop-short-squeeze/*](http://blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk/2021/02/ethics-of-the-gamestop-short-squeeze/) `"Nevertheless, for people who think Wall Street is due some punishment, itā€™s probably seen as a good start."`< Bullish + +**They all know the truth\*\*** [*https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Naked-Short-Selling-The-Truth-Is-Much-Worse-Than-You-Have-Been-Told.html*](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Naked-Short-Selling-The-Truth-Is-Much-Worse-Than-You-Have-Been-Told.html) + +&#x200B; + +# Threats that we face: + +***SUPPOSED***\*\*`methods used by banks and the hedgefunds to dismantle online communities` [*https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mulstf/cointelpro\_techniques\_for\_dilution\_misdirection/*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mulstf/cointelpro_techniques_for_dilution_misdirection/) + +**Finkle is Einhorn\***\* `Who is at the end of the GME saga?` [*https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/owpfc3/will\_the\_real\_gme\_bbemg\_please\_stand\_up\_part\_1/*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/owpfc3/will_the_real_gme_bbemg_please_stand_up_part_1/) + +**Fidelity's share-lending debacle\*\*** [*https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search/?q=fidelity%20&restrict\_sr=1&sr\_nsfw=*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search/?q=fidelity%20&restrict_sr=1&sr_nsfw=) + +**Cellar boxing; Wall ST's infinite money glitch\*\*** `It is impossible for GameStop to go bankrupt given its cash position and bullish sentiment which put a spanner in their whole strategy & failing to cellarbox, puts Short-Sellers on the hook for infinite risk.` [*https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/cellar-boxing-the-predatory-secret-that-wall-street-uses-to-exploit-an-infinite-money-glitch-in-97ccbd6c9923*](https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/cellar-boxing-the-predatory-secret-that-wall-street-uses-to-exploit-an-infinite-money-glitch-in-97ccbd6c9923) + +**Jim Cramer: Admissions of a Hendgfund Manager\*\*** [*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuT6UyeeJcQ*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuT6UyeeJcQ) + +**Naked Short-Selling & regulatory capture Explained\*\*** `and how predatory short-sellers cellar box companies` [*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZbLv\_S\_fYg&t=29s*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZbLv_S_fYg&t=29s) >!< A MUST WATCH <!< + +**FTDs Explained\*\*** [*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0WXg5T3cBE*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0WXg5T3cBE) + +**SIPC open cases still pending\*\*** [https://www.sipc.org/cases-and-claims/open-cases/](https://www.sipc.org/cases-and-claims/open-cases/) `Cases are still pending from 2008, I bet in hindsight retail investors would have DRS their shares.` + +# Threats they face: + +**Fish do speak:** [*https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rdip8n/at\_the\_st\_louis\_aquarium\_they\_have\_interactive/*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rdip8n/at_the_st_louis_aquarium_they_have_interactive/) + +**GameStop Forward P/E Ratio Is 10,648\*\*** `The price is wrong, this information has been suppressed.` [*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgOjoesdq4s*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgOjoesdq4s) + +**GameStop announces multiyear strategic partnership with Microsoft\*\*** [https://news.microsoft.com/2020/10/08/gamestop-announces-multiyear-strategic-partnership-with-microsoft/](https://news.microsoft.com/2020/10/08/gamestop-announces-multiyear-strategic-partnership-with-microsoft/) `The partnership aims to advance GameStopā€™s key strategic pillars and extend its digital omni-channel ecosystem` + +# Pay less or no tax: + +**Portfolio loans\*\*** [https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/portfolio-loans-can-be-one-way-to-make-debt-work-in-your-favor.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/portfolio-loans-can-be-one-way-to-make-debt-work-in-your-favor.html) `A great option for those that no not plan on selling their shares and is attracted to the idea of holding them in the Forever Infinity Pool. Portfolio loans or lines of credit offer a way to tap the cash you need without having to sell investments.Instead, you pledge assets as collateral and because you do not sell thouse assets you are not liable for capital gains tax and instead just pay the interest on the facility.` + +**How to Pay Zero Tax on crypto or stocks\*\*** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUAaAjHugiI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUAaAjHugiI) + +============================================================================================================================================================== + +# My message to all of you + +**Hey, apes, It takes persistence, energy and fire to win! so instead of being spoon-fed what the disingenuous want you to see, why not work together? and show apes what you think they should see.** + +**The creators of quality DD on Superstonk can't benefit all Apes if only a few of us see the information.** + +**If you really believe in your investment, why spend countless hours consuming content on this forum? does it get you anywhere? do you need any more confirmation bias????** + +**In August when I went all in, and as I became more frustrated with the manipulation and disinformation I stopped being a** [**lemming**](https://www.dictionary.com/browse/lemming) **lurker and have now removed myself from the Groundhog Day Roundabout to counter it.** + +**Why not show apes the information you think will benefit them? Shitposts don't help anyone, well researched DD does.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +============================================================================================================================================================== + +# What is my opinion on the situation, and where do I think this is going if shorts-sellers maintain ownership of the float and hold till their last dying breath. + +I believe that GameStop is going to explode in value based on fundamentals alone. When? Maybe soon, maybe not, I'm not sure. What I do know is, shorts are greedy leaches and they will do anything necessary, even if it means they can survive one more day. I personally think they will leach until the value is undeniably much higher, and then jump in price as each positive earnings are released. + +Come on! you didn't think it would be a walk in the park, did you? + +# Why did I DRS 100% of my shares? + +I believe in the MOASS theory. If MOASS sucks the value from the markets as we expect it to, I think it is safe to say this will cause domino bankruptcies everywhere, brokers included. If it wasn't for the buy button being removed in January, Many Brokers would have. + +How do I know that? Take a look at what the owner of Interactive Brokers Thomas Peterffy had to say 2 weeks after it all happened: [**https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_TPYuIRVfew&t=2s**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TPYuIRVfew&t=2s) + +In short, I DRS'd because I didn't want to lose my shares and not be covered by SIPC insurance due to Broker bankruptcies. not least the many benefits of being a bonified shareholder. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; +So I'm quite up on my tesla position that I'm holding currently and I'm debating whether or not I want to sell these shares and just throw it all into ETH to hodl for the long run as well have compound interest on it via Celcius. What do you guys think I should do? +NEWs To Come - ` last updated - March 27th, 2016 ` + +Ethereumā€™s ecosystem is growing so quickly, very exciting news has a habit of coming out of nowhere. That said, there are more than a few things to have on our radar. Thanks to help from this community, hereā€™s a current list. As always, *what am I missing?* + +* Our [faq](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/faq) page may also be helpful for many common questions connected to the news listed below. + +**Ethereum Blockchain Development** + + * Metropolis - Includes user friendly Mist Browser and likely a light client. + * Serenity - Major scalability improvement and Casper +* Casper's new release date ā€“ [The Ethereum Foundation negotiated ETH sales and agreements with a wide range of private ventures to secure itā€™s funding for several years]( https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/45bhus/so_the_ethereum_foundation_can_now_fund_itself/czwpr04). Top of their list is pushing out a change in how transactions are verified, from the infamous Proof of Work (PoW) model to a Proof of Stake (PoS) model. This is called Casper, which should be released [early next year](https://news.bitcoin.com/vitalik-buterin-ethereums-price-rise-increases-our-sovereignty/). +* With Casper, issuance of ETH drops between 0-2m a year, depending on staking rewards (think, a crypto version of dividends more than Bitcoin's mining). + * [Synereo](http://www.synereo.com/) partnership with a important [update](http://blog.synereo.com/2016/03/06/Synereo-Update/). "Synereo and Ethereum now have an end to end spec of a correct, fault tolerant architecture that is sharded, i.e. scales". + * [Sharding development news]( https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/53). Sharding is a game changer for Ethereum and could allow it to 10000+ transactions a second (Visa currently handles 2000 per second). While its success is starting to look inevitable, more specific news should be watched carefully. + * Client updates - Ethereumā€™s clients are wide ranging - Go, C++, Python, Rust, Java, Ruby, .net. This allows Ethereum to attract developers with a wide range of programming backgrounds and empowers Ethereum for more applications. It was a VERY smart strategy by the founders of Ethereum. Watching the news for client updates is important. + +**Other news we know will happen** + + * [Augurā€™s](http://www.augur.net/) updates, note [beta release done!](http://blog.augur.net/2016/03/14/beta/) + * [Clearmatics news]( http://www.clearmatics.com/) (VB involved) + * [ConsenSys]( https://consensys.net/about/) A *Decentralized Organization* partnering and facilitating various Ethereum ventures: +* [BlockAppsSTRATO](http://www.blockapps.net/) Ethereum compliant platform partnering with [Red Hat Inc!](http://www.blockcy.com/redhat-eyes-blockchain-tech) and they made Ethereum the first blockchain service to be [certified by Microsoft](http://www.coindesk.com/microsoft-ethereum-startup-blockchain/) +* [Boardroom](http://boardroom.to/) ConsenSys product - Governance DApp +* [Etherex]( https://etherex.org/) An open source currency exchange! +* [Gnosis](https://groupgnosis.com/) Prediction market +* [Icebox](https://github.com/ConsenSys/icebox) +* [TransActive Grid](https://consensys.net/ventures/partnerships/) which has received some nice attention from a [mainstream popular science magazine](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york/) +* [Ujo Music](http://ujomusic.com/) Rebuilding the music industry on the blockchain. Imogen Heap groundbreaking the technology with her single [Tiny Human](https://alpha.ujomusic.com/#/imogen_heap/tiny_human/tiny_human). +* [uPort](https://medium.com/@ConsenSys/uport-the-wallet-is-the-new-browser-b133a83fe73#.sejpu06mf) web wallet and identity management + * [Ethcore](https://ethcore.io/) Ethereum-based private venture with attention to light clients and Internet of Things (IoT) +* [Parity release](https://ethcore.io/parity.html) + * [Jaxx Kryptokit wallet](http://www.jaxx.io/) very well respected wallet, now placing Ethereum alongside Bitcoin! + * [Mist upgrade](https://github.com/ethereum/mist/releases) - providing easier access to the world of dapps + * [The Rudimental](http://sebfor.com/interview-with-troy-murray-ceo-of-the-rudimental/) An equity crowdfunding portal for arts and media + * [Thomson Reuters mobile web project](http://bitcoinist.net/thomson-reuters-announces-ethereum-blockchain-plans/) Yes, that "Reuters", the multinational mass media firm, is hiring an Ethereum developer for some mystery product. I'm still stunned by this one. + * [VBā€™s mystery China adventures]( https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/43u1ha/clarification_on_entities_i_am_involved_in/) +* Fenbushi statement on Ethereum startup investments +* Devcon2 Asian location + +**Coin relays and interoperability** + +One very powerful aspect of Ethereumā€™s blockchain is it allows both formal *relays* between blockchains as well as general *interoperability* between chains. *Relays* allow Ethereum to empower other blockchains, basically letting these more classic chains (like Bitcoin and Dogecoin) use Ethereum as a service for smart contracts. This ā€œbonded sidechainā€ is more powerful/flexible path to using smart contracts than building [non-currency agnostic chains](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/4af4ni/ethereums_advantages_for_bitcoin_highlight_how/). Similarly, *interoperability* is a classic concept in software development with over 30 years of history. Ethereumā€™s Virtual Machine (EVM) greatly facilitates multi-chain interoperability ā€“ which could allow private chains to communicate with Ethereumā€™s public chain. Basically, Ethereum facilitates ā€œchaining all the thingsā€. *In other words, even future private chains could interoperate with the Ethereum public blockchain to have a gateway between their secured private chain and the more global public chain.* Private chain development is a GOOD thing under this model, even if that private chain is not an Ethereum fork. + +Current examples + + * [BTCrelay](http://btcrelay.org/) - Consenys product - Now Live! + * [Dogecoin relay]( http://forklog.net/dogecoin-integrates-in-ethereum-for-application-in-smart-contracts/) + +**Public Dapps and/or ventures to keep an eye on** + +Ethereum ecosystem is growing in unbelievable way with well over a [100 DApps](http://dapps.ethercasts.com/). Below are some DApps and ventures that have been commonly discussed and seem to be generating news sooner than later. + + * [Arcade City](http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ridesharing-startup-arcade-city-launches-120000535.html) Driver owned ride share + * [Backfeed](http://www.geektime.com/2015/08/19/backfeed-wants-to-decentralize-the-internet-and-help-you-earn-what-you-deserve/) socioeconomic platform + * [Cetas](http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ethereum-based-kyc-platform-cetas-added-microsoft-azure-blockchain-cloud-1551755) A Know Your Customer (KYC) and credit rating system running on Ethereum and added to Microsoft Azure + * [Colony](http://colony.io/) Company builder DApp + * [Digix.io](https://digix.io) Gold purchasing and asset tracking + * [Etheria](http://etheria.world/) Decentralized Virtual World + * [FreeMyVunk](http://www.freemyvunk.com/) building an economy around virtual game assets outside the game of origin + * [Maker](http://ryepdx.com/2016/01/maker-dao/) stablecoin platform + * [Otonomos](http://www.otonomos.com/) Programmable company shares + * [Pax](http://pax.directory/) Virtual nation and peer to peer legal system + * [Plutus]( https://plutus.it/) Use Ethereum to allow one to pay with Bitcoin anywhere + * [Provenance](https://www.provenance.org/news/) Supply chain transparency + * [Safemarket](https://safemarket.github.io/) P2P trade system + * [Slock.it](http://slock.it/) Lock it, share it, economy; [DAO model looks exciting](https://slock.it/dao.html) + * [Vevue](http://www.govevue.com/) Make videos, earn Bitcoin, using Ethereum blockchain + * [Weifund](http://weifund.io/) Decentralize crowdfunding + +Many of Ethereum's 100+ DApps will fail, but it only takes one to succeed to bring Ethereum to the mainstream. That said, sadly, there will also be scams. We should never forget Bitcoin's [NeoBee](http://www.coindesk.com/neo-bee-ceo-breaks-silence-alleged-bitcoin-fraud/) or any of the MANY failed exchanges. As a community, we'll want to keep a close eye out in more ways than one. *Be enthusiastic but critical - with transparency being absolutely key to trust.* + +**Developer tools to keep an eye on** + + * [Oraclize](http://www.oraclize.it/home/help) developer tools + * [EtherAPIs](http://etherapis.io/) - micropayment platform + +**Ether ATMs** + + * [Ether.Camp's testing](http://blog.ether.camp/post/140752725123/ethereum-atm-is-real-now) "imagine you could pay a dollar to buy an unowned tile in Etheria, purchase a dollar-pegged currency or vote for a resolution in a Decentralized Autonomous Organization" + * [Genesis Coin's teaser](https://twitter.com/genesiscoin/status/707686204238467074) + * [Instacoin's no teaser](https://twitter.com/Instacoin/status/708767289588453376) + +**Embedded Devices** + + * [Eth(Emedded)](http://ethembedded.com/) "Providing successful builds of Ethereum Clients for multiple, Linux based, ARM embedded devices" + +**Potential surprises that are not really surprises** + + * Anything China ā€“ ETH's value has largely been independent of anything to do with China, that must inevitability change. + * OKcoin inclusion (largest exchange in China, insane history with price boosts) + * Gemini inclusion (New Yorkers access to ETH) + +**Parting statement** + +Ethereum has essentially a monopoly on smart contracts, and from the list above, it should be clear that it has built a remarkable network effect around this ecosystem. It is a disruptive technology, that [fosters synergies]( https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/43fm3w/the_core_value_proposition_of_ethereum_is_synergy/), and when put in a greater perspective, itā€™s [market cap remains quite tiny]( https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/459hm8/despite_the_rise_ethereums_current_market_cap_is/), especially when you think of the [relative size of the growing community]( https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/45emug/better_than_google_trends_number_of_meetups_for/). + +**Past BIG news** + +Nearly every day is an adventure in Ethereum land, so this list will be far from exhaustive. + +*Please let me know if there is something you'd like to see.* + + * [An overview of some "cherry picked" news as of Feb. 19th, 2016](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/46fz8f/ethereum_in_the_year_of_the_fire_monkey_can_you/) + * [A running series of past news](http://www.ethereum-101.com/#!ethereum-news/qi5p8) + * [Purse.io market adds Eth sales](https://twitter.com/PurseIO/status/710599819312508929) + +*** + +**You can support my ETH sleuthing addiction:** + +0x082b594a0fbb4faa007e72f3a31d56764ac4de66 + +https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/7/16270808/equifax-data-breach-us-identity-theft + +There was a hack affecting up to 143 million Americans, possibly including credit cards, SS numbers, loan history, etc. + +Edit: I have read over the rules and I hope that this doesn't violate them. +https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/7/16270808/equifax-data-breach-us-identity-theft + +There was a hack affecting up to 143 million Americans, possibly including credit cards, SS numbers, loan history, etc. + +Edit: I have read over the rules and I hope that this doesn't violate them. +I spent the past five years in my hometown working a job that I really enjoyed, but was pretty underpaid for ($55K a year plus bonus). As of this year, I've now paid down all of my student loan debt and just began finally saving money. + +Last week, I received amazing news. I was offered (and accepted) a dream job with a tech firm in Silicon Valley. I will now be making significantly more money. My salary is now $140K plus a significant stock bonus that vests in the next two years. There are also other incentive bonuses along the way. + +I know this isn't a bad problem to have, but I don't want to fuck it up. What do I need to know about making significantly more money? What should I do to avoid being killed with taxes? What do I need to know about how to handle the stock I've been granted? What are some pitfalls people have when they find themselves in this kind of situation? + +EDIT: Since a few people have asked. I am married with no kids. She will likely be making $50-60K after we relocate. + +EDIT 2: A lot of people have focused on the move to Silicon Valley and the changes associated with that. All valid. Just to clarify my situation, I am moving from Washington D.C. where the traffic is really bad and the cost of living is also very high...although not as high as SV. +Currently I hold just index funds and cash, pretty conservative right. I don't like a lot of effort, hassle and administration. I figure, if I get some of this low quality land and leave it, the soil might improve from it not being worked and perhaps increasing urban expansion will mean it's worth something big someday? + +Alternative is just buying more stocks or holding cash. Thoughts? +I use Facebook to get gigs for my services sometimes. A Fortnite ago, while scrolling through a job group on Facebook. I found somebody in need of a gig I offered. I chatted him up, and we agreed on a fixed amount. I asked him that we use an escrow service or at least pay an upfront amount for the payment. + +He begged me profusely, saying the works for an HR and they only pay at the end of each month. I declined the job, but he went ahead to sign a contract with me, and I trusted him. + +This job took a lot of my time as I had to decline some other gigs to concentrate on this one. It was meant to be a continuous contract, so I thought it would be worth it in the long run. + +Yesterday, after completing a milestone in the job, he blocked me off Telegram( that's where we deal majorly) and Facebook and I've been able to access him since. Later found out the information about the company name, and all ended up being falsified + +The job was for $500. I feel cheated, used and exhausted as I already had plans for the money. Now I'm back to scratch. + + +Edit; I appreciate your attention to my post. The concern, advice, criticism are all taken in good faith. I shared this so that others will not fall victim to unpaid labour. + +Whatever step I take, I'll come back here and update you all. Thank you +We are in the first Bear Market in 10 years. Historically this is the time when long-term investors should be putting money to work. We most likely will have more pain to come, as Bear Markets usually drop about 25-30% off of peak. With that said another 5-10% drop is likely coming. + +&#x200B; + +Investors should not panic. By the word "investor," I mean someone with a time horizon of years not months. I for one will be putting money to work in 2019. I will calculate how much income I want to contribute to the market and make quarterly buys. Bear Markets should not be scary for long-term investors. We had a "Great Depression" and a "Great Recession" and the markets have always rebounded. Remember in 08-09 our whole Financial System almost collapsed. That is not happening right now. The fear is not a Financial System/Capitalist Form of Government collapse. The fear is a recession. + +&#x200B; + +There are other fears including the Fed raising rates too fast and our debt level reaching unsustainable levels (our debt level reaching unsustainable levels has been a fear since the arguments of Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson). Interest on our debt compare to GDP and Government Spending, including spending on entitlements, are legitimate fears of course, but our way of life and form of government is not going to collapse. + +&#x200B; + +Investors should not be putting money into the markets if they will need that money within a year or is part of their emergency fund. Only disposable income should be being put to work. If that is the case, investors should not worry about the market falling. Stress should easily be managed. Be smart with your money. + +&#x200B; + +A few indicators I am going to be watching are the Russell bottoming (I tend to agree this is a leading indicator), the Schiller P/E ratio, and the forward S&P P/E Ratio. The Schiller and S&P P/E ratios should tell investors it's okay to start putting money to work and the Russell bottoming would confirm. + +&#x200B; + +It is not worth it to panic. If you are panicking then either you have too much money in stocks, your time horizon is too short (you are more a trader than investor), or stock investing is not right for you (put money into bonds for guaranteed returns). + +&#x200B; + +Good luck everyone! 2019 is going to be a volatile year for the markets. Pick winners and watch company's debt levels and cash flow from operations. A healthy balance sheet will survive a down turn in the economy. +To the folks at CS. + +Your snail mail process is hurting us. Over 2 months to fully access our accounts is hurting us. + +There are thousands of international apes too scared to start the DRS process due to FOMO. Yes we can call and pay for expedited service, but we have to pay twice (which is also a barrier to some) and there's increasing reports that even after paying for expedited, the details are taking almost as long as snail mail to arrive. + +I'd liken it to being invited to the best party in town, but when you arrive you're faced with a queue that runs around the block and the next ten blocks after that - but the guy on the door is really slow and only letting in one person at a time. We can see the party house and we can hear the music and the whoops of delight from inside - but we just can't get in. Lots of people just won't join the queue because they think that by the time they're in the door, the party will be over. + +The world's eyes have been opened to DRS and it won't stop with GME. Whilst we're winning, YOU'RE winning. + +Come on guys , we're pleading. 2+ months via snail mail is not good. Throw your best (smooth and wrinkled) brains at this. Throw some resource and some cash at it (it'll pay you back handsomely). + +Let's not give anyone a reason not to take their well-earned seat on the rocket when it blasts us TO THE MOON!!! + +\*Edit\* I forgot to mention / praise the international toll-free telephone line that's been implemented. It's progress and it helps - but it doesn't get us registered and into our accounts any quicker. +To the folks at CS. + +Your snail mail process is hurting us. Over 2 months to fully access our accounts is hurting us. + +There are thousands of international apes too scared to start the DRS process due to FOMO. Yes we can call and pay for expedited service, but we have to pay twice (which is also a barrier to some) and there's increasing reports that even after paying for expedited, the details are taking almost as long as snail mail to arrive. + +I'd liken it to being invited to the best party in town, but when you arrive you're faced with a queue that runs around the block and the next ten blocks after that - but the guy on the door is really slow and only letting in one person at a time. We can see the party house and we can hear the music and the whoops of delight from inside - but we just can't get in. Lots of people just won't join the queue because they think that by the time they're in the door, the party will be over. + +The world's eyes have been opened to DRS and it won't stop with GME. Whilst we're winning, YOU'RE winning. + +Come on guys , we're pleading. 2+ months via snail mail is not good. Throw your best (smooth and wrinkled) brains at this. Throw some resource and some cash at it (it'll pay you back handsomely). + +Let's not give anyone a reason not to take their well-earned seat on the rocket when it blasts us TO THE MOON!!! + +\*Edit\* I forgot to mention / praise the international toll-free telephone line that's been implemented. It's progress and it helps - but it doesn't get us registered and into our accounts any quicker. +Many countries have a citizenship by investment program, where you can get residency or citizenship by donating or investing. Stay or own in beautiful beach countries and get tax breaks. Anyone tried it? Pros are obvious but safety/healthcare might be big cons. Looking to learn about your experiences +My wife and I are planning to do a lump sum into Boglehead style investment (or kind of Dragon Portfolio) vehicle and keep investing little every month and forget for 20 years. What is the best way to go forward. + +\---------------------------------- + +Domestic: + +1. Nifty 50 - Nippon Nifty 50 BeES - 20% +2. Next 50 - Nippon Junior BeES - 20% +3. Midcap 150 - Motilal Oswal Nifty Midcap 150 Index - 10% + +Foreign + +1. S&P500 or NASDAQ 100 - Motilal Oswal S&P 500 Index mutual fund (or) MOst shares Nasdaq 100 ETF - 20% + +Debt + +1. Bharat Bond April 2033 - 10% or should I make it Nippon India Liquid BeES + +Real Estate + +1. Embassy Parks/Mindspace REIT - Don't know how to choose. - 10% + +Gold + +1. Gold ETF: Nippon India Gold BeES or Quantum Half gold ETF - 10% + +\-------------------------------------- + +So, I tried doing these ETFs on Small case, I found that they charge 2.5% of my money which is ridiculous. Does anyone completely understand what small case charges are? What are the one-time and recurring charges for a custom small case? + +Then I noticed that I had only NASDAQ 100 ETF, it feels like a sectarian bet and not a broad market index fund, so, I thought maybe MO S&P 500, as it is a mutual fund and doesn't have any hidden charges as it is not FOF. If I move to mutual funds, it is comfortable to buy in round figures and manage the monthly proportions, but I'm worried about higher TER. But, mutual funds have a easier SIP option. + +If I move back to ETFs in a demat account and compromise on S&P 500, I can manually buy all the ETFs as a Zerodha Bucket order but, it looks like I'd have to recalculate every month the proportions. I can probably automate it in Google Sheets (my most likely option now) + +\----------------- + +Is there a way I can automate most of the tasks and sleep peacefully for 20 years not worrying about SIP every month and only be able to rebalance year after year after some 5 years when I have a sizable corpus. I'll not most likely not sell anything for first 5 years for rebalancing. Which way should I go? Any changes in the portfolio selected recommended? + +In my first post on this topic linked here if you want to catch up : + +https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/pypq0s/p017_my_own_approach_to_mf_part_i/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +My first principle came - the utter avoidance of PSU after losing a fair amount of money in US 64 . Literally investments made regularly since 1993 lost money as US 64 was a fair chunk. + + +In 2001 , Scraping around in old bank book and the investment file , trying to get rid of old penny stocks and checking old FD receipts to check if we had missed anything . I came across a surprise + +Two minor investments had done very well. + +One was a 5k investment made somewhere earlier in a fund called 20th century prudence . It became Zurich then HDFC prudence . Investment continued in it till 2014. It probably came with a free term life policy as well as I remember seeing that certificate . + +The other was a 8k investment made in a fund called Kothari Pioneer Bluechip which later became Franklin Bluechip and investment in it continued as well + +The first was a balanced fund , the other had the Sensex as a benchmark . + +But funnily enough , sometimes the performance of the balanced fund was almost equal to the fund returns of the pure equity fund . + +That led me to believe a lot in the balanced fund category and indeed a lot of our money went there . + +While I have not added more since 2014 , both are held as legacy funds . I havenā€™t redeemed them . + +You can check the performance here + +https://www.moneycontrol.com/mutual-funds/nav/franklin-india-bluechip-fund-growth/MKP001 + +https://www.moneycontrol.com/mutual-funds/nav/hdfc-balanced-advantage-fund/MHD001 + + + +This taught me two things . + +1. That for an average investor , a balanced fund is a very good place to start . + +2.There will be phases where a balanced fund with a 70:30 equity / debt allocation can beat a well run pure equity fund + +While I have not added any more to since 2014, the more I revisit this in my mind I feel that a simple well run large balance fund provides a lot of returns simplicity and comfort to an average person like me . + +With each successive boom/ bust cycle , the marketing engines sell investments like insurance, primarily based on fear maybe because that is what our minds have been conditioned to ? + +1. Is it diversified +2. Are the expenses low +3. Are the returns in line + +We seem to be forced to approach it like a term plan +1. Does it cover death accident covid and suicide +2. What is the cost per lakh +3. Is it sold by a reputed insurance company + +In 2001 , my learning was that returns can be found in the unlikeliest of places . That one should not approach an investment like we do insurance , driven by fear . + +The simplest basic vanilla balanced fund , actively managed , well run , can outperform a lot of fancier investments equity funds included . + +Here I have compared ICICI bluechip +Which is a pure equity fund , with HDFC balanced advantage which is a 75:25 equity : debt mix . I have compared direct plans . You can use this tool easily itā€™s quite self explanatory . + +https://www.morningstar.in/tools/mutual-fund-performance-comparison.aspx + +I love the Morningstar [not to +Be confused with lucifer morning star who is also very handsome] šŸ˜‚ site a lot as it works on mobile and is easy to use . + +In 2001, I understood that simplicity works . A plane Jane boring old vanilla +Balanced fund with no excitement and no fancy apps pushing it can work +Wonders for a a new investor . Takes care of the diversification and asset allocation . Works better than a majority of pure equity products . +I am new to investing. My first and only trade so far is PVR/INOX since four months. + +Relevant:https://www.livemint.com/industry/media/centre-allows-100-occupancy-at-cinema-halls-from-1-feb-11612026783420.html + +I watched Nolan's Tenet last year and the local theater went above and beyond to ensure social distancing and safety. It was still a stupid thing to do during a pandemic. + +But having watched tenet twice more at home. I dont think the experience of movie theaters in going away ever. I do not think there will be any long term impacts on cinema once the pandemic is over. + +Streaming services today are more fragmented than ever before and new ones are popping up. + +No one here probably remembers Quibi; Streaming service that started in 2020. Signed a whole lot of A list celebrities and actors. It burned through $2 billion in 6 months and shut down. Barely attracting 90K~ users while they hoped for a million plus within that period. + +* Which bank do you recommend for savings account or fixed deposits? +* How is your experience with wealth management services? Discuss your experience with Citigold/CitiPriority, Kotak Privy League, db WealthPro, Axis Burgundy, ICICI Bank Wealth Management etc. +* What bank offers the best foreign exchange rates? +* Discuss the quality of the bank's mobile apps and the services they offer. +* How are the lending practices at your bank? Did your housing loan get approved on time? Were you required to purchase additional products (like insurance) to avail a loan? + +You can ask for a general review of a particular product or service that you are researching - "Is bank X good? Is it recommended for basic services no-frills accounts?", but please avoid asking for personal advice. The discussion is for consumption by a broader audience. For advice regarding your personal situation (like "I am Sharmaji ka beta, and my family is pressurising me to take a home loan, what would you suggest?"), the bi-weekly advice thread is recommended. Personal advice queries and comments will be removed to ensure that older threads provide sufficient historical reviews on products and services. + +Reviews posted here can be relied upon by newcomers to evaluate customer experience. Please confine the thread only to reviews or requests for reviews of products and services. +https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZrJimOXkAAoXyv.jpg + +Why should tax payers pay for loan interest amount accumulated by borrowers? This is his total waste of taxpayers money +https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/banks-may-deny-payment-even-if-you-share-atm-pin-with-spouse/articleshow/64488850.cms +My husband and I have been renting a house we love in Virginia for a few years now and the landlord has decided to sell it. We didn't feel like we were in quite the right place financially to buy it at market value (~340k) but they just listed the place as a short sale in as-is condition for $300k. We have been spending the last 9 years or so padding our retirement accounts and emergency savings, and haven't really saved up much specifically for a down payment. Now that our retirement accounts and emergency savings are in a great place, we had planned on refocusing our efforts towards a good down payment over the next couple of years to buy a house in the area, but now we aren't sure if it would be worth buying ahead of schedule using our current assets because of this short sale opportunity. + +The house is perfect for us and we have lived here long enough to know that it has no major problems. The heater was replaced a year and a half ago, and the A/C unit was replaced 1 year ago. If we purchased we would probably want to stay in this house for at least another 5 years, but probably want to move into a detached single family home in the next 10 years. There is basically no real estate in this super-inflated area that is cheaper than this other than a one bedroom condo, so buying a cheaper place isn't really an option for us. As far as our investment goes, the real estate market in this area is booming and housing prices are rising quickly. And in the next 5 years we should have a metro station in our area, so I would imagine prices would increase even further. + +I think our biggest issue right now is that very recently I took a major leap and quit my soul-crushing job of 8 years to become self-employed. It's been great so far but I haven't been at it long enough to show any sort of reliable income. We have no issue living off of my husband's salary, but I'm sure it doesn't look great to a mortgage company. But I'm hoping that with our excellent credit scores, low debt, decent assets, and the fact that we are first time home buyers, that maybe we have a chance of getting a decent mortgage. + +Here are the numbers. Let me know if there is anything else important I'm missing... + +-Our credit scores are 760 and 789. + +-Husband's Salary: 75k/year, pretty secure with likely raise and bonus soon (never counting on it though) + +-Emergency Fund: $18k (6 months of living expenses for both of us. Willing to part with probably $8k towards house) + +-Gift from parents for house down payment: $10k + +-Retirement Accounts: $155k total ($124k is in pre-tax accounts) I heard this can help you get a better mortgage rate, is that correct? We would never take money out of our retirement account. + +-Debt: $9k student loan, $6k car loan, some minor misc. CC debt that we pay off every month. + +-Current rent payment: $1700/month (would hope that our mortgage payment +PMI + taxes +HOA fees wouldn't go too much above this). P.S. I know this sounds like a lot for rent, but for our area this is pretty good deal... + +-Current monthly debt payments: $437.41 for car loan and $259.89 for student loan + +-Other random assets: Our two cars together are worth about $20k (KBB). One we own completely, the other is the one we still owe $6k on. Not willing to part with either of them, but not sure if having them as assets counts towards a mortgage rate reduction or anything. Just trying to be thorough. + +________________________________________________ +QUESTIONS: + +1. Would it be stupid to try to buy now without 20% down? Should we just move into another rental and save until we have the full 20%? + +2. Is there anything involved in a short sale that could put up a red flag, if we know the property is in good condition? + +3. Any tips on first time home buyers in Virginia? Something that might help tip our situation in favor of buying? + +4. Does buying the house for $300k when its estimated value is listed as being worth $340k help us in regards to this situation? Could we refinance quicker, maybe a year or two, to get rid of paying PMI based on the actual value of the home? + +5. Do you think we could get a mortgage rate low enough on one salary that our combined monthly payment (including taxes, PMI, and HOA fees) would be relatively close to our current rent payment? I've been trying to crunch the numbers, but I just don't know enough about mortgage rates. + +6. I assume we'd be looking for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. If there are any other options that wouldn't be a huge risk and might make sense for our situation, I'd love to hear about them. + +7. Would it be a bad financial decision to jump into this? Would we be laughed out of a bank if we tried to apply for this mortgage in our current state? We're fine not buying if it's a bad decision, but we just want to make sure we aren't passing up a good offer because of something we don't know. + +Thank you guys in advance for all of your help! We really appreciate your insight :) + +**EDIT: Thank you everyone for your responses! Just a few bits of updated info based on some questions I've gotten. The landlord originally bought the place for $400k and is upside down on his mortgage, hence the short sale. My husband and I are in our early 30s. Comparable houses in the area, including one a few doors down, are selling for $340-$375k. My husband works as chemist and his job is pretty secure right now and his company is doing extremely well. My income used to be around 40k and I expect to be bringing in a similar amount building up over the next year or so but right now I'm just starting out working from home. So we have more than $75k coming in to our household, but not necessarily income that a bank will care about. + +Looking forward to reading through all of these responses and doing a lot more research! Thanks everyone! ! + + + + +Today's "You And Yours" had the story of a frightening experience for an HSBC customer. + +It's about 5 minutes to listen to, starting 14m22s into http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09xcslh. + +To summarise the programme, HSBC will close an account down **and transfer the account's funds *anywhere* "you" tell them to** when they receive a paper form containing only: + +- your account details (account number and sort code) +- your signature +- where "you" would like the funds transferred + +On the programme, the customer describes the form's signature clearly *not* being their own, and HSBC didn't contact them to tell them it had happened. They only discovered it when using online banking and seeing the account had disappeared! + +Obviously, the money hadn't been transferred to an account the customer held. It had been stolen. + +I'm gobsmacked. Just an astonishing lack of institutional/systemic thought and security. + +HSBC customers - be aware! + +EDIT: The programme was dealing with a consumer account. **I've contacted them today and confirmed that the exact same flaw exists in HSBC's business banking system**. +Posting this using a throwaway account due to lots of personal details. + +**Background**: I'm 35, female, married with one small child (plan to have one more soon). I have a job that I'm growing tired of but don't hate, pays well, and allows remote work. We recently took advantage of that and moved from a HCOL to MCOL area for better quality of life. The lower cost would also allow me to take a career break for a year or two to spend more time with my child and focus on parenting/procreating, if I decide to do so. We just sold our expensive house in the HCOL city and ended up with $850K cash. + +**Looking for advice** **on how to best invest this $850K lump sum to reach our FIRE goal**, which is 4M NW, hopefully within the next 5 years. I'm also debating if I should stay the course with my job and try to reach our FIRE goal asap, because 99% chances I won't be able to find a job that pays as well locally, which may greatly delay our FIRE plan. Also welcome suggestions on current asset allocation (not well thought out right now). + +**Breakdown of our current NW around $2.8M:** + +* 53% (1.5M) in pre and after tax brokerage accounts (35% S&P 500 index funds, 28% tech company stock A, 14% QQQ index funds, 7% REIT funds, 4% tech company stock B, 6% individual stock, 5% WMGAX - husband picked this mutual funds but I'm not impressed, 0.5% bitcoin) - I'm hesitating in selling company stock A because they're all from RSU and ESPP and have been growing very well and I don't want to pay taxes at our current tax bracket. +* 17% (430K equity) in 2 investment properties with positive cash flows. +* 30% (880K) cash (primarily from recent house sale). + +**Debt $500K:** + +* $450K mortgage at 2.8% interest rate on a new primary home worth $650K. +* $50K mortgage at 3.99% interest rate on 2 investment properties. + +**Pre-tax annual income around $480K:** + +* Joint income in the past few years is around $520K (W2 jobs + rentals). Going forward may be lowered to $480K due to the relocation. If I stop working, our income may be further reduced to $210K. + +**Annual expenses $120K. Got the 4M NW goal using a 3% withdraw rate.** + +**Preliminary plan for the $850K cash:** + +* $400K in a high growth ETF, thinking ARK +* $250K in a low cost ETF or mutual fund, looking for suggestions. +* $100K in VTWAX to increase international exposure +* $50K in bitcoin +* $50K to pay off investment properties (3.99% interest) + +Plan to invest all at once. + +Edit 1: updated total exposure proportions across all brokerage accounts. + +Edit 2: both company A and B are in tech. +Oil is consumed when you use it and it disappears forever. ETH isn't consumed, it's paid to miners (or soon stakers) for performing a service. They can then use or sell the ETH however they want. + +If the exhaust pipes of cars pumped the gas back into the ground so it can be mined again then ETH would be comparable to digital oil. + +This meme of ETH being digital oil is stupid and seems to only exist to ease the egos of Bitcoin maximalists. +Iā€™m using Wealth simple. For example, Iā€™m looking to invest in VISA which has a CAD hedge listed by neo exchange. Since I use Wealth simple, Iā€™m looking to avoid conversion rates that I would normally get if I were to buy a USD stock. Any suggestions? +Iā€™ve had $1,000 sitting in my account for months now as Iā€™ve been researching about day trading, options trading, basically everything I feel I need to know. I feel like Iā€™m ready to finally start trying to put money out, but I canā€™t seem to work the courage to actually do it. For example, NVIDIA smashed there earnings so I feel like I should do a OOTM call, but donā€™t want to pull the trigger because if it doesnā€™t execute then I lose $200-$300. (a 1/3 of my account value) If anyone has advice to a beginner trader and how to better research stocks, read graphs, or just get past the fear of initially starting and worry about failing, Iā€™d love to hear it. +The concept is simple: Follow "smart money" and ride their coat tails to the promised land. + +Money flow indicates staying power. That is, when money is flowing *into a sector*, related stocks will often experiences bounces after pull backs and develop sustained uptrends. And when money is flowing *out of a sector*, you might see pops get successfully shorted and bearish trends establish themselves. + +Day traders can obviously use market rotation studies to identify momentum stocks, but also to develop greater conviction in a move. I use the Growth 250 list created by Investor's Business Daily (of which I am unaffiliated) to understand the depth and breadth of the market any given week. This is their best estimation of the top 250 growth stocks in the market. + +**The magic sauce:** I keep a running study of this list, tracking money flows between subsectors. + +Keeping an eye on this flow has proven to be a huge boon to my edge. I have found that when I trade in subsectors that are seeing changes in money flow that there is an increased level of continuation that correlates to the flow, whether positive or negative. And to put it simply, this translates into bigger moves with reduced chop. + +# The Momentum Story: + +*Market Rotation as of market close August 12th\** + +**Buy Side:** + +>*Specialty Chemicals:* Looking very strong here with names like ALB LTHM getting tagged and getting a new buying upticks. +> +>*Chemicals-Agricultural:* Ag chemicals have had a huge year due to the Ukraine War and other supply-side issues. I really love to see SQM on this weekā€™s list. Solid inflow to the whole subset too with CF NTR MOS getting strong price action last week. +> +>*Medical-Biomed/Biotech:* Here we are seeing even more names getting flow last week in biotech itā€™s been a top sector for a few weeks in a row now. +> +>*Oil&Gas-Transport/Pipeline:* What we are getting here are plenty of news catalyst about US oil and gas exports to Europe and it will need transport. I like GLNG ENLC EPD +> +>*Oil&Gas-U S Expl&Prod:* these are the names running all year re: OXY AR RRC ESTE MTDR ā€” honestly there are too many to list. + +**Sell Side:** + +>Nothing is really worth talking about for bears from last weekā€™s rotation. There is some weakness in *Energy-Solar* that is probably nothing more than a bit of a pause than a rotation ā€” there is no reason to short solar here- just something to watch. Also, I have identified some selling within a small subset of Biotech for genome editing companies such as CRSP. + +# The Momentum Study: + +**Positive Money Flow** + +https://preview.redd.it/bm9s8k3iyuh91.png?width=1341&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa17c241ff263259a9d0c2501bdd63f2b382242f + +**Negative Money Flow** + +https://preview.redd.it/wzf25uxfyuh91.png?width=1273&format=png&auto=webp&s=13010958c167a30d17636e96f2f93491bef0b951 + +&#x200B; + +And there you have it. I hope this helps you as much as it helps me. If you have any questions about this, I am beyond happy to answer them. And if I can't answer them (which I won't pretend to know everything), I'll do some research and share my findings. Long live /r/daytrading! +iā€™m sharing it here because iā€™m sure that there are other people in my situation too and it will be great if i can help you exactly like how my friend helped me. + +What iā€™m sharing here is what i wrote on my notebook while he was pitching the basics of crypto trading, I summarized it into few lists so it will be easier for you to follow: + +**General tips**: + +1. If your mom send you a message asking ā€œhow to buy bitcoinā€? it means you need to sell yours (not to her of course :P) + +2. Donā€™t put all your money on the exchange (he lost in the past some money on mt.gox). + +3. If youā€™re too lazy to print a paper wallet or so cheap you canā€™t buy Trezor, so donā€™t cry if you make some stupid mistakes and lose your login details/ get hacked. + +4. Donā€™t be afraid from charts, After you will get into trading you will find technical analysis like a childrenā€™s game, you just need to look for shapes and mark a line to understand where the risk is and than use your instincts, your brain(he claimed i donā€™t have any) and some useful new resources (i share them later on). + +5. there is too much information, if you will try to focus everything it will kill you and you will spend most of your profits on Advil. arrange yourself a useful resources and a comfortable working environment. + +6. Listen to Lofi while you trade/make decisions. + +7. donā€™t join random telegram groups or pump and dump groups. no-one open a traders group and invite you just because you have a beautiful smile. 97% of them have hidden interest. Try to attend for a local bitcoin meet up in your hometown or near by and than meet REAL people and REAL traders. Ask them if they have a friends traders group and ask to join, If they donā€™t agree say the + +**Trading tips**: + +1. Altcoins - Vs. Bitcoin and Vs. USD: it's important to analyse the price against Bitcoin and against USD as well. Most major altcoins have huge USD trading + +2. What goes down ā€“ does not necessarily go up again: ā€œIā€™ve seen Altcoins like Aurora which came down 99.99% of its recordā€. + +3. Day trading is a job. Consider the time spending on it when calculating your gains and losses. + +4. Donā€™t put all of your eggs in one basket: Diversify your crypto portfolio, and it's not shame to hedge to cash sometimes + +5. donā€™t risk something you canā€™t afford to lose. + + + +**resources**: + +ā€œGive a man a good signal and he made profit for day, Teach him how to trade and will make a profit for a day ā€œ (I made it nowā€¦ And I wonder why I got fired) :P + +He shared with me many of his resources and said that I need to check them to understand which one are useful for me and which isnā€™t. + +**News & Educational Websites**: + +- **CryptFlix** - This site is a great way to learn about blockchain and the crypto market while watching videos. They have a cool UX that reminds Netflix and you will find it easy to spend few hours watching super cool and educating videos. cryptflix.com + +- **Crypto Dictionary** - In the crypto world there is a lot of terms https://www.mycryptopedia.com/encyclopedia/ + +- **CryptoPotato** - Great educational website for beginners and advanced. What I like the most about this guys is that they are doing market update each week, live technical analysis sessions (also answering questions) and it seems like they are super legit. +https://cryptopotato.com/ + + +- **Investopidea** - I love this website. The are professional, keep it simple and clean. https://www.investopedia.com/ + +- **CoinsCalendar** - watch all upcoming coins events and updates. https://www.coinscalendar.com/ + +- **Tradingview** - Beautiful easy to use charts. You can also follow pro traders and learn from their analyzes. https://www.tradingview.com + +**Educational, Learn about real companies that using smart contracts** - https://medium.com/swarmdotmarket/5-companies-already-brilliantly-using-smart-contracts-ac49f3d5c431 + + +*BitcoinWiki** - Itā€™s like wikipedia, but for bitcoinsā€¦ https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Main_Page + + +- **BadBitcoin** - This website will help you to avoid fraud (My friend said the word fraud like 20 times in the last 1 hour, I think this market have many problems!). http://www.badbitcoin.org/ + +- **The Age of Cryptocurrency**: Recommended book. How Bitcoin and the Blockchain Are Challenging the Global Economic Order. Iā€™m not sharing here a link so it wonā€™t consider self promotion so just google the book name, itā€™s on amazon (the price is around 16$ but donā€™t be cheap on your education) + +- **CryptoPanic** - This website will save you a lot of time by summarizing news from all over the internet and let you know the sentiment of each article/post/tweet + +- **Andreas M. Antonopoulos** - This guy deserve a high five from satoshi nakomoto. He wrote the book ā€œ Mastering Bitcoinā€ and dedicating his life to make the world understand bitcoin & blockchain. https://antonopoulos.com/ + +- **BitcoinWisdom** - https://bitcoinwisdom.com/ + +- **Coin360** - a beautiful unique way to have a overlook on the crypto market and find new opportunities every day. https://coin360.io/ + +**CryptoCoinChart** - a cool alternative to coinmarketcap https://cryptocoincharts.info/ + +**ICOā€™s** - +Before investing in ICO you need to check few things: + +- **Team** (Who are they? do they have experience in the field of the ICO? They have linkedin, github, personal websites?) + + +- **Technology** (Are they here to stay? Do you see a real usage in their tokens? They solve any problem?) + + +- **Social Media** - do they have community of people that support them? Are they active on Facebook, Twitter, Medium, Telegram, Reddit? + + +**Whitepapaer**- Before you buy electronic product on Amazon do you read about it? do you do the research? Do the same when you invest in ICO. +Read the Whitepaper to fully understand the idea and the potential + + + + + +Are there any private banking benefits (doesn't need to be "private banking" but just some program with better benefits) with potentially small but nice benefits where you can use them to hold some money or use their brokerage to invest in index funds yourself but you don't have to incur large fees and don't have to utilize their more expensive products like their wealth management(I know they will still attempt to sell me these products, I just don't want it to be a requirement to open an account because I won't be using them)? + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +For example, in another thread I saw amex platinum is free through morgan stanley or the BOA cashback CC which is pretty nice for only 100k in an account. Are there any where the checking/savings accounts get decent APY? Due to my business I like to have a decent amount of cash on hand in case I need to deploy it quickly which can be in a business or personal account, but right now it gets like .1%. Small little things like a nice premium CC, APY around 1.5-2%+(this especially since inflation is so bad and my current apy is awful), etc would easily get me to switch over to parking some funds there but I just don't even know where to start to know what is available. I won't qualify for the Ultra high networth banking programs (25M+ NW type programs) but the usual type of requirements I can pretty easily satisfy (100k+ in any type of account, 1M+ in an account if it can include a brokerage with index funds, etc). + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +So what are some benefits from some private banking programs that I may not know about that I should look into and may be worth pursuing? +Hello, + +I was wondering if someone might be able to tell me how I can find out if I have an old piece of paper or if the certificate of shares I found is worth anything. + +The shares are for a company called The Dixieland Oil Company from April 1919. They are in the name of my great grandfather on the certificate. The paper was just found by my dad in a chest of his father's and he just gave it to me. + +I google'd the company and... it looks like a company with that name still exists. But that's as far as I have gotten. I've never really dealt with anything like this before and i'm in my twenties so i'm just trying to figure out if it's worth spending money to have someone look at it or just keep it as a cool piece of history and frame it like I planned. + +Thanks + +Update: Picture coming today + +**EDIT PICTURES** Edited out some identifying details. + +FRONT & BACK: https://imgur.com/a/Bo3Tq5S +I've always been told it's best to start investing into the future while you are young, but I barley know where to start. As of now I am investing into a Roth IRA fund right now and planning on starting a certificate of deposit with my bank... I just feel I could do so much more, should I look into the stock market? If so who should I talk to? Do I visit a broker? Do I start real estate? If so where do I begin? I just want to take advantage of my youth right now, I currently make about 1.2k a month but I would like to make good decisions so in about 10 years I'll look back and say Im glad I posted on this subreddit. Any advice is appreciated. Thank you :) +Hi Everyone, + +My dad is 70, and I'm not the most knowledgeable when it comes to mutual funds. He sent me this link of the funds prospectus where he just moved 40% of his assets. + + +https://pex.broadridge.com/summary.asp?cid=Lplpst&fid=353496508 + + +Also, he's not the most savvy when it comes to reading up on investments and is easily sold by what his advisor tells him. I tried reading more articles about the company and their performance but there seems to be a lot of mixed info out there. +Are Franklin Templeton and this fund safe for him, or is he really underutilizing his assets? + +Thanks for any help! +Seems to be a lot of threads/ people agreeing how ridiculous the property market is, but then in the same threads everyone seems to be buying or in the market to buy. Seems like massive FOMO? +Just thought it will be interesting to see if anyone has or is planning to relocate permanently or temporarily (but for longer than 6 months) due to covid situation which allows some more flexibility and/or WFH. + +Perhaps a beach side town in North NSW or SEQ, or maybe a quiet place in Tassie? + +Personally I am relocating to Brisbane from Sydney. My company has satellite office there and I have family there, housing is actually reasonably priced. Pace of life there a bit better as I have a young family. + +If I didnā€™t need to be near an office Iā€™d probably move to Burleigh Heads or Mooloolaba . +Seriously, this needs to be repeated: Just because we are seeing massive growth does not mean you should take an emotionally charged decision and YOLO into the Crypto market. + +You should consider that there is a **very real possibility of losing 30%-40%** of your fund within just 1 month. For instance: In the recent May-2021 crypto market crash, till 19th May, BTC lost value by 50%, ETH by 45%, ADA by 50%, BNB by 50%, from their respective All-Time-Highs, and almost every major coin was down by double-digit percentages ([source](https://www.businesstoday.in/commodities/story/crypto-in-free-fall-bitcoin-tanks-30-to-31000-ethereum-loses-40-dogecoin-down-45-296457-2021-05-19)). So be mindful that you might have to HODL your coins for 3-4 years just to break even. Remember, Crypto is a cutting-edge solution to a lot of problems, but making a quick buck is not one of them. Therefore only invest funds that you won't be needing anytime soon. + +* Do not invest what you don't own. Borrowing money to invest in Crypto can literally [financially destroy you](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-short-squeeze-bitcoin-liquidation-short-trading-margin-options-bearish-2021-7). It doesn't matter how optimistic the market sentiment seems, or how confident you are that every statistical parameter seems bullish-do not overleverage. +* In a bull market, it is easy to day-trade and think you can time the market to make a quick buck. It's not. Everyone's thinks he's a genius in a bull market. I'd suggest staying away from it. + +This is not FUD, **it's called Risk Management**, and it should be taken very seriously before investing in any financial asset-more so in the case of Crypto, because we are still very early, and crypto still has a relatively small total market cap and has massive potential for growth in this decade. + +Edit-1: Yes, this is a financial advice. + + +Edit-2: This blew up while I was asleep! Thanks a lot, kind strangers. Thanks for the amazing Awards! This is my first post on Reddit that has received so much love! You guys are the best. + + + + +I have had an immense urge to find another job or do anything , something that makes me feel useful. I posted something similar about 3 months ago and since then Iā€™ve fixed my sleep routine signed up with a personal trainer 3x a week and done a bit more reading. My diet is still pretty bad I eat out a lot and I could tone down the video game playing . + +I slaved away at low to mid level jobs since I was 16 up until last year now 32 years old and it was my goal to fire. Now that I reached it I canā€™t shake the feeling like a useless bum , problem is I donā€™t want to go back to a 9-5 job and Iā€™m just not motivated to do anything that requires any serious amount of work or attention. + +I guess my question for anyone thatā€™s been in my position what would you recommend ? Is this just a phase Iā€™ll work out of ? + +Iā€™m not very wealthy My passive income is decent about 70k annually . I have about 100k cash for any emergency expense which is fine because Iā€™m still saving money monthly. + +Any advice or tips will help thank you guys ! +> With Ghash.io pool fluctuating between 40% and 50% of market share we are looking to set up our own pool (p2pool) or divide our hashrate over several pools, we will do some testing and experimenting before making a switch/final decision. Several criteria are important: +> +> Pool variance: A small pool has much more variance which has a direct effect on block finding and payout. +> +> Merged mining: pool should at the least allow merged mining for NMC +> +> Pool stability: pool should be stable, protected against DDoS attacks, no network latency, efficient work distribution etc. +> +> Of course, the most important thing is that the Bitcoin eco-systems remains healthy, and to avoid a 51% attack. + +http://www.peta-mine.co/ + +https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=PETA + +This would be quite an upgrade for P2POOL. Last time I checked they were around 500 TH/s +I'm sorry, did the mods go bankrupt? Front page currently contains 4 robinhood screen shots of people with 2 and 3 digit accounts bragging about how they made huge returns. Please delete these trash posts and redirect to /r/babystreetbets or some other appropriate sub. +As a banker, I see some individuals with some extremely, extremely bad spending habits. At some points, there is nothing that can be done short term to fix the overall financial situation. + +Most of the problems I see people going through in life stems from over purchasing and financing things they should not be buying in the first place. + +Most common denominator? Vehicles. Why are people financing cars they should not be financing? Why do some people have such large egos that they can't drive a used car for a few grand, and instead must go get that $45,000 SUV when their budget on paper should be no more than 15. + +Honestly, it reaches a point where you really don't feel bad for people anymore. They have all these flashy cars and stuff, but literally nothing that they own. Their net worth is negative, they are in debt, and they have credit so bad they can't even get FHA lending. Oh, but you have that great flashy car huh. + +I don't know if this stems from how people are raised, or if they want to appear richer than they are... I don't get it. Gucci items, jewelry, new shoes, flashy cars..... 20% installment rates on cars, 610 credit scores, only like 2k cash in their entire name, and credit collections.... what...? + +Makes sense. + +Just was always curious WHY people put themselves in these situations. I will never understand it. People live WAY outside of their own means, then beg for help. + +Most people are 1 financial disaster away from absolute bankruptcy, and it's always usually because they buy things they should not be buying. They appear rich to the world, but on paper they are beyond the poverty line. +I recently won about $2.3 million playing the lottery in my state. Using a throwaway for obvious reasons. Note, this is AFTER TAX money, in my pocket now. No need to discuss annuities, etc. + +I'm 30 y/o, have a full time job making about $100k per year. I have about $125k in a 401k, an another $25k in cash. I understand a lot about finance, investing, etc. + +I don't want to buy a new house or car or anything major. I already own a $600k home with about $400k left in mortgage. + +What are your thoughts about what I should being doing with this cash? I'd like to make a few small donations to charities and schools. Should I pay off the mortgage? Invest in an index fund? Hedge fund? + +Can I comfortably retire now if I estimate a need of about $80-100k per year for a withdrawal? + +Thanks all. +They have failed to deliver, multiple days this week. I made a mistake with the numbers. Sorry was not trying to misinform had multiple people let me know that there is a cumulative event. Either way, though they still owe shorts. I changed my post at their request. A fellow ape made a great point and id like to point it out. + +Some of these are profit shorts and they are late to cover them since if they buy too much stock... TO the moon. + +**THESE NUMBERS ARE ACCUMULATED SHARES** + +20210115|36467W109|GME|892653|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|39.91 + +20210119|36467W109|GME|1498576|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|35.50 + +20210120|36467W109|GME|1007562|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|39.36 + +20210121|36467W109|GME|1438994|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|39.12 + +20210122|36467W109|GME|273600|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|43.03 + +20210125|36467W109|GME|275113|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|65.01 + +20210126|36467W109|GME|2099572|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|76.79 + +20210127|36467W109|GME|1972862|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|147.98 + +20210128|36467W109|GME|1032986|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|347.51 + +20210129|36467W109|GME|138179|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|193.60 + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +20210115|00165C104|AMC|102589|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|2.18 + +20210119|00165C104|AMC|8842791|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|2.33 + +20210120|00165C104|AMC|13399807|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|3.06 + +20210121|00165C104|AMC|3167557|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|2.97 + +20210122|00165C104|AMC|200|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|2.98 + +20210125|00165C104|AMC|15521|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|3.51 + +20210126|00165C104|AMC|385273|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|4.42 + +20210127|00165C104|AMC|27693649|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|4.96 + +20210128|00165C104|AMC|584097|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|19.90 + +20210129|00165C104|AMC|15902|AMC ENTMT HLDGS INC CL A COM S|8.63 + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**For example, how to read the bold then below is an explanation of each bold point.** + +**20210115**|36467W109|GME|892653|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|39.91 + +**Date of failure to deliver - Since if they don't pay it will be forced out either through company assets or insurance.** + +20210115|36467W109|**GME|892653**|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|39.91 + +**Stock name and amount of stock they must buy.** + +20210115|36467W109**|**GME|892653|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|**39.91** + +**The amount they bought it for.** + +[https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) Fail to deliver the site. + +Not a financial adviser. Just a dumb ape. +TLDR; Iā€™ve recently picked up an interest in trading securities. I made a few mistakes (mentioned below) so would like to hear advice from successful individuals professionally trading securities for a living / greatly supplement income. Where can I look to learn to be efficacious in trading securities? + +FULL POST: + +Background / I have a Comp Sci degree and work as an IT project manager. I was looking for ways to invest my savings and picked up great interest in day &amp;amp;amp;amp; swing trading. I read some online how-toā€™s and watched so called ā€œgurusā€. Clearly, most are fake just selling courses, but some genuine individuals and sites provided good beginner insight. + +Learning / I have the option to work from home few days of the week or shift hours at the office so I used mornings 9-11am to trade through a virtual account for 2 months between Aug - Oct 2019.I had some impressive gains, +60%, but was aware virtual trades are far from indicating real world successes. + +Experience / Lo & behold, I started swing trading with my own $25K since Oct 2019 and have lost $12,600 already. However, Iā€™m now up +$3200 unrealized gains and expect to recoup my losses by Jan-Mar 2020 based on my analysis. + +Issue / Picked up a trading book recently that highlighted my issues in lack of knowledge & strategy : did not use trailing stop order, stop Loss, limits with deltas, OCO, FTO, etc. I have a lot to learn so Iā€™m taking a break from trading otherwise to study and gain knowledge to the benefit of my endeavours. + +Request / Iā€™d like to hear from Canadian day traders whoā€™ve successfully been able to make a living or generate great additional income. How did you start and where are you now? Where can I learn how to efficiently & effectively trade securities? Thank you in advance. + +** ā€” EDIT ā€” ** +- I agree with the sentiment of most responses which suggest day trading is not ā€œinvestingā€. I have investments in the traditional sense in real estate (2 pre cons, 1 sold in 2018) and safe blue chip stocks/index funds etc. My endeavours in day trading arose from interest turned possible passion using funds that are within my means of risk. I will cease my day trading activities if itā€™s trajectory over the next year present as exercises in futility. Just want to hear from anyone who might have been successful with it. +I'm looking to add more Dividend Growth stocks to my portfolio. My issue is, I seem to be running out of good candidates to choose from that I don't already own. + +The main criteria I'm looking for is the following: + +* Increasing dividends every year by minimum 5% +* Increasing revenue & earnings every year/quarter +* Strong and increasing Free cash flow +* Payout ratio below 80% + +Does anyone know of some unicorns with all these traits? Some names I'm looking at right now are CAE, ATD.B, T, FTS, AQN, NTR. Others I've considered are SU (though I don't want to go long oil) and WSP (which hasn't increased its dividend in over 5 years). + +I currently own BAM, BIP, BCE, TD, RY, EMA, XRE, ENB. Any suggestions are appreciated! +Financial help needs to go to ā€˜small businesses and people already losing their jobsā€™ + +https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exclusive-fed-is-throwing-money-in-the-wrong-place-says-sheila-bair-former-top-banking-regulator-2020-03-15 +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, Ethereum Classic, and minor questions. +- Important content should be posted as a separate thread. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Do I have any hope of ever paying it off with a 80,000-100,000 salary? Is this going to come back and bite me in the ass with achieving financial independence and a comfortable retirement? Iā€™m 30 years old. + +Edit* thanks for the replies everyone. Actually really made me feel better. While it sucks to have such a huge debt hanging over my head it seems I will still be ok. I know a lot of people have HECS debt and itā€™s fine but I was wondering if having such a large debt is going to make a big difference. + +Lots of people are asking how I got such a debt, I did a postgraduate 3 year physiotherapy degree on a full fee place. Thatā€™s on top of a 4 year undergrad. Would of been fine if I had been smarter and gotten a commonwealth supported place but I didnā€™t. So here we are. Probably be 70 when I pay it off! + +Thanks again for replying, some really helpful people here +My post has been deemed as FUD. So rather than leave the post up, I've decided the right thing to do is to delete the post outright. I've learned the hard way that having opinions that challenge the herd mentality is unwelcome. I believed that the experience I had trading derivatives for an investment bank would provide some valuable counterparty insight, but clearly, I was wrong. + +I'll also be leaving the sub and clearing my account of all GME/AMC related content. I've always welcomed thoughtful debate and the warmth of this community, but after receiving multiple insults, death threats, and being told to kill myself, I now see that this community has changed into something reckless and dangerous that I no longer wish to be a part of. + +Best of luck to you all. I sincerely hope you all receive the life-changing money that you're hoping for. +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/yui5ztv0gnu81.jpg?width=452&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8c9473cd87c992968744ce4e378f19b56502adf9 + +All buying pressure is diverted to XADF where it can be extremely weakened, thus manipulating pricing and making profit on the backs of retail investors. + +cumulated price change per exchange = SUM( price at exchange - last price at any exchange ) + +Sing here the letter prepared by u/dlauer: [https://www.urvin.finance/advocacy/we-the-investors-pfof-sign-on](https://www.urvin.finance/advocacy/we-the-investors-pfof-sign-on) + +FINRA Alternative Display Facility (ADF)Ā \[XADF\]: [https://www.iotafinance.com/en/Detail-view-MIC-code-XADF.html](https://www.iotafinance.com/en/Detail-view-MIC-code-XADF.html) + +"**Alternative display facility** (ADF) is an [equity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock) [trading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trader_(finance)) facility created in the United States by the [Financial Industry Regulatory Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_Industry_Regulatory_Authority) (FINRA), a [self-regulatory organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-regulatory_organization) (SRO). The ADF is an alternative to the exchange for publishing quotations and for comparing and reporting trades. This differs from a trading facility with execution capabilities ([stock exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_exchange)) in that the exchange would simply send back to the owner of the displayed order a notice of execution. FINRA has operated an ADF since July 29, 2002." + +\[Source: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative\_display\_facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_display_facility)\] + +&#x200B; + +"Is ADF a dark pool? + +Specifically, a dark pool can quote the display through another exchange or through the Financial Industry Regulatory Authorityā€™s (FINRAā€™s) Alternative Display Facility (ADF)." + +\[Source: [https://pegaswitch.com/popular/what-is-adf-exchange/](https://pegaswitch.com/popular/what-is-adf-exchange/)\] + +&#x200B; + +The data was provided by u/chartexchange, please see my post history for more details. +Thereā€™s a US subreddit on above, effectively ideas and reverse-engineering strategies of how to maximise points, sign up rewards, etc to get some deals whilst cancelling stuff quickly etc (does not promote getting into debt!). + +I get the feeling that the above would work well in the US, but a tricky one in the UK as the opportunities / rewards just arenā€™t that great? Havenā€™t looked it in properly but keen to hear from others who may actively be doing this in the Uk +# Preface + +Iā€™ve been heavily interested in the workings of the Fed since March. Thanks to u/leisure_rules, Iā€™ve started looking through OCC data - including large commercial banks. + +Recently, Iā€™ve posted notional values of derivatives within the US market - something that should frighten all of you. I believe Goldman Sachs is in a large pickle, having nearly 200:1 leverage ratio and a 75% reduction in assets since 2019. Either GS or the other two (smaller) banks that are incredibly over-leveraged are likely the first to fall. + +With the recent unconstitutional moratorium extension, I decided to take a look at what is really going on in the backend. I also speculate that the large firms are behind the push to extend the moratorium, as a large enough default rate will reduce household prices, reducing the values of their assets, and will actually cause them to be margin called. + +[Marge doing some practice runs](https://preview.redd.it/1lxvzcw61zf71.png?width=480&format=png&auto=webp&s=f583455bb986caaf84cb80b157c601fa732d22e4) + +# TL;DR; + +Youā€™ve been lied to about demand. Nobody seems to be getting new mortgages, rather it seems (indirectly) that our future owners (BlackRock & BlackStone) are actually the ones that are causing the whole demand to be built up. If we get a large-enough default rate, margins will start calling. + +Sauce: [https://www.occ.gov/publications-and-resources/publications/mortgage-metrics-reports/files/pub-mortgage-metrics-q1-2021.pdf](https://www.occ.gov/publications-and-resources/publications/mortgage-metrics-reports/files/pub-mortgage-metrics-q1-2021.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +# Appetizer + +Iā€™ll paraphrase the document above for you and attempt to prove a thesis that you have been lied to. + +**What are mortgage metrics** + +The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) collects data on first-lien residential mortgage loans serviced by seven national banks with large mortgage-servicing portfolios and is reported quarterly to ā€œpromote broader understanding of mortgage portfolio performance and modification activity in the federal banking system, support supervision of regulated institutions, and fulfill section 104 of the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009 (codified at 12 USC 1715z-25), as amended by section 1493(a) of the Doddā€“Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.ā€ + +Before the third quarter of 2019, certain banks reported completed,post-foreclosure,and other real estate owned (OREO) accounts in data used in figures 1 through 4. These accounts should not have been included in those figures. These discrepancies were not material. + +# Sauce + +As of March 31, 2021 the banks have serviced 13.2m first-lien residential mortgages valued at $2.64T of principal balances (This is the total mortgage balance, less interest). + +The mortgage performance declined compared to when the pandemic started, and as a result CARES Act was enacted in March-2020 to provide customer relief, allowing forbearance extensions up to 18 months. + +In the first quarter of 2021, despite eviction moratorium, there were 833 new foreclosures initiated - a decline of 96% compared to the year prior. + +&#x200B; + +[Newly Initiated Foreclosures](https://preview.redd.it/juabeynd1zf71.png?width=1226&format=png&auto=webp&s=10db900465f00d45587b50fc329a791e05ea7f90) + +Among the initiated foreclosures, weā€™ve seen a significant amount of foreclosures that were completed. + +&#x200B; + +[Completed Foreclosures](https://preview.redd.it/dep8qfnh1zf71.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6f20a2a4e3d6d90ad12ba5a63d70cb04473c0ee) + +Iā€™m sure youā€™ve heard that there is a large number of mortgages that are in default > 90 days. Now, the banks (due to the foreclosures) are actually reaching out to the individual homeowners (likely as a result of the CARES Act) and are offering modifications (reduced interest rates or payment amounts or both). + +In the first quarter, there were close to 48,000 modifications made, an increase from 41,000 from the previous quarter. + +Within those modifications, there were: + +* 27,500 ā€œcombination modificationsā€ (modifications that include multiple actions to affect the affordability and sustainability of the loan (the both)) +* 20,000 received a single action (rate reduction or term extension) with about 9,400 receiving rate reduction +* 188 received no modification + +So, you can see here - the banks are really trying to avoid having their underlying assets from being dumped. From my previous post, there are a ton of derivatives being in play and IMO the banks have no other choice but to actually work with the homeowners to prevent the shitstorm. + +**Now, why I think youā€™ve been lied to about the demand being high but the supply low by the individual investors.** + +OCC tracks the total serviced mortgage portfolio, specifically outstanding principal and number of loans that the banks offer. + +&#x200B; + +[Number of outstanding principal has decreased by $400Bn since Q1-2020](https://preview.redd.it/7sjfuajn1zf71.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eb2cc6cb7eb43c8c356ba922787847ceccc7bcf) + +&#x200B; + +[And the number of loans have decreased by 2,200 since Q1-2020.](https://preview.redd.it/pgt8gmip1zf71.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca94f6ec6bd995785e2d76e5e194e00b74d8bfcb) + +Which means that the regular people are no longer getting loans to get a mortgage. Despite you hearing that the market is hot, I am no longer in belief that this is a result of regular people and the impact of BlackRock and friends is significantly under reported. + +\[Edit 1\] Now, some of you questioned that the actual supply is down, to show a further proof that we should not be seeing such low new loans by new home owners when new residential housing has actually stayed consistent since 2017, barely hit by COVID, and have gone up. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/n9hncsz0x0g71.png?width=1792&format=png&auto=webp&s=17888837512278528734e654564ba3a40c30353c) + +I do not believe that the underlying assets of mortgages will actually have a chance of going down, unless our economy goes to shit as the Prime mortgages actually compose about 94% of all mortgages and are unlikely to be fraudulently reported after the shenanigans of 2008. + +https://preview.redd.it/ru6n7vdv1zf71.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f0a59ff9953bbba5f7d0dfb9aca5a95e1caeecc + +In the current quarter, we have approximately 4.6% of all mortgage loans that are seriously delinquent. And 94% of all loans are current and performing. + +If anything happens, the likely states that will be affected are: + +* California (no surprise) having 25% of all mortgage modification actions +* Texas with having \~8% of all mortgage modification actions (4x less than Cali) +* Florida with having about the same amount as Texas + +All eyes should be on California, because If shit really hits the fan, California will be the first to light the fires. +I started budgeting a week and a half ago, and the emergency fund already saved me from a bad time. While setting up a dishwasher, the sewer pipe (which, it turned out, was held together by duct tape) snapped off in my hand. The godawful stink of sewer gas hit me and I realized I was in over my head. For the first time in my life I called a plumber, and he got us squared away for $300. So even if your emergency fund is small, it can make a BIG difference! Thanks, /r/finance ! +Edit: Oops, thanks /r/personalfinance ! +Asking because I've started reading Rayner Teo's Price Action Trading Secrets and he said that expecting a 20% annual return is more realistic that what others advertise. It could be higher, but realistically speaking, that's what you should be looking for. + +However, I find it a bit low. I'm not a consistent trader so my opinion is not based on personal experience, but I still think there plenty of room for improvement on that 20% mark. + +What are your thoughts? +Craig Wright's fraud continues. Yesterday, he [submitted into evidence](https://www.scribd.com/document/406503654/Fake-email-from-Dave-to-Uyen) an email he says was from Dave Kleiman to Uyen Nguyen asking her to be a director of his 'bitcoin company' in **late 2012**. + +It is provably fake. + +**Craig didn't realize that the email's PGP signature includes a signing timestamp along with the ID of the key used as metadata.** Was the email actually sent **in 2012**? Let's find out! + +The beginning of the signature is as follows: iQEcBAEBAgAGBQJTH+uQAAoJELiFsXrEW+0bCacH/3K + +Converted to hex, it's: 89 01 1c 04 01 01 02 00 06 05 02 *53 1f eb 90* 00 0a 09 10 **b8 85 b1 7a c4 5b ed 1b** 09 a7 07 ff 72 + +We [know](https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc4880) how to find the long ID of the key used and the timestamp of the signature. I've bolded the ID and italicized the timestamp. Looking on the MIT keyserver, we can [find the fake* key](https://i.imgur.com/5ooGihN.png). **The timestamp of the signature is 1394600848, which is March 12, 2014, two weeks before Craig filed to install Uyen as a director of Dave's old company, and almost a year after Dave died!** + +We can double-check with `gpg -vv`. Transcribe the email and paste it in. Here's the output: + + + :signature packet: algo 1, keyid B885B17AC45BED1B + version 4, created 1394600848, md5len 0, sigclass 0x01 + digest algo 2, begin of digest 09 a7 + hashed subpkt 2 len 4 (sig created 2014-03-12) + subpkt 16 len 8 (issuer key ID B885B17AC45BED1B) + +(I'll note, as an aside, that Dave apparently spelled his name incorrectly and put a typo in the subject.) + +*The fake key has the same pref-hash-algos as Craig's fake keys, and were never updated. +Time for some honesty, and hope that this resonates for others too. + +I timed the market. I saw the headwinds coming from China, and went to cash. I sold all my LS80, broadly at the top, and was thankful I did. This was luck, and was not how Iā€™d planned to act at all. The impending drop made me nervous. + +So, I sat on cash for a week or two, and saw ā€˜circuit breakersā€™ over and over again. Iā€™d done it. Iā€™d beaten the system! But then... + +...then I got nervous that the ā€˜bottom was inā€™. So I started buying back in. I saw some decent gains, but thought ā€˜this canā€™t lastā€™ and sold out. **Again**. I thought I was being clever, and while this probably resulted in a net-positive for my money, it was a net-negative for my mental health. + +In broad terms: Iā€™m nervous when Iā€™m in the market, and also nervous when Iā€™m out! Itā€™s an unenviable position to be in: constantly looking for that ā€˜tipā€™ that the bottom or top is ā€˜inā€™. I would read one convincing argument that would sway me one way, and another saying the opposite. + +I learned a valuable lesson. Nobody knows. I knew this was the case before now, but Iā€™ve lived it. Everybody is just trying to find their way in the dark, and trying to justify their own position. Given enough data, any conclusion can be reached. The amount of times Iā€™ve agonised over ā€˜S&P vs internationalā€™ and never could find an answer - because nobody can be sure. + +So, Iā€™m back in - and for good this time, I hope. Iā€™ve checked my own mental resources, and am fully willing to embrace the ups and downs. I saw an article today which said ā€˜SPY1250 - hereā€™s whyā€™, and then another article - same website! - which said almost the exact opposite. + +So, there we have it. Harder to stay the course in practice, Iā€™ve found. Iā€™ve learned something from this, and hope that paralysis by analysis doesnā€™t happen to others. + +Interestingly, Iā€˜ve found this to be less impactful for my individual stocks - perhaps because I know their story, and their individual positions, that Iā€™m less nervous. But investing psychology is an interesting beast... +Just bought a house. Have a joint mortgage with my spouse and home insurance and all the rest. In the last couple of weeks it's become apparent that a very good friend of ours needs a place to stay for a few months. + +They're happy to contribute to bills and the mortgage while they are staying here. My question is whether we need to tell the mortgage provider/insurance that we have a lodger, or whether it's fine to carry on as we are. + +For more context, we have known this person for many years and even shared a rental flat with them. Looking online it seems that having a Lodger that you don't know is the risk that institutions may not like. +Hi all, at 73 you can still be a "newb" apparently - But in my case, a jumpy schmuck. Hope this route can help me. Heres my story: I jumped quite hastily into the btc action and had to pay the price. However, I've been rather patient, but we're getting nervous. I wired funds to my coinbase account after getting the green light to do so via identity checks and all that. Same names, got the accounts verified. All things seem to check out. but the wire never landed. I followed their instructions on how to inquire then escalate the issue but didn't realize i was creating new tickets all the while. Embarrasingly here they all are (last one's first): + +3506671, Jan 20- +3506254 , Jan 19- +3343761, Jan 09- +3314937, Jan 05- +3256021, Jan 18- +3255788, Jan 02 + +I honestly had no idea i was digging my own grave with each inquiry. + +I realize this was idiotic but I never got a human response. I decided to finally call on 1/20. She was ok but sternly reminded me not to start any more tickets. Fair enough. I've learned alot from this process but would really appreciate some kind of indication that the wire's been identified, or something. + +If anyone could help it would be greatly appreciated. Please upvote. + + +It's that time of the month. Some of us just received cash from salary or business income. What are you planning to invest in? What did you sell, and why? If you are continuing to hold onto existing investments, what are they and why do you hold them? Are you avoiding anything? Again, why? + +The discussion is not just for individual stocks of companies, but also for mutual funds and other investments. Feel free to share your investment rationale. This thread does not exist not only for disseminating knowledge on investment decisions (the why?). Others are free to assess your rationale. + +Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. None of this is investment advice or a stock recommendation. Kindly do your due diligence and/or consider seeing a registered investment advisor before making any financial decisions! + +Previous [Links](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/search?q=monthly+discussion+thread+&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) + +PS: Be friendly. Be civil. + +Many of you would have started with investing at an early age and some at a later stage. When did you decide to be actively involved in personal finance? How has your portfolio evolved over the years and what have been your learnings? +I saw someone had recommended this stock in an earlier thread as risky pick, but looking at the ratios of this stock isnt it crazy to buy it at this levels? + +https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZM/ + +Why does it have such a crazy P/E level? +40% of all USD in circulation were printed in last 12 months. Productivity is still very low. Many industries and businesses are broken to their core. They won't be recovering anytime soon. + +Knowing the impact of USD on global economy, my small economic mind tells me hyperinflation is coming in next 2-3 years when all that inflation drips down from stocks/fixed assets to vada pav. + +What are your plans to fight this inflation? + +Are you people planning to short currency? +More than half a million users have signed up to buy mutual funds (MFs) on Paytm Money, which is nearing launch, a top company official said. The digital platform from Paytm Money Ltd, a subsidiary of One97 Communications Ltd, goes live by the end of this month. One97 also owns Paytm mobile wallet, which claims to have 300 million users, and Paytm Payments Bank. Although Paytm is accepting advance registrations, it has not opened the mutual fund shop to the public yet. + +Link: [https://www.livemint.com/Money/TQ9wIB1gTjDZjhOUF0sQ2I/Paytm-Money-sees-half-a-million-users-sign-up-to-buy-mutual.html](https://www.livemint.com/Money/TQ9wIB1gTjDZjhOUF0sQ2I/Paytm-Money-sees-half-a-million-users-sign-up-to-buy-mutual.html) +Many of you would have started with investing at an early age and some at a later stage. When did you decide to be actively involved in personal finance? How has your portfolio evolved over the years and what have been your learnings? +Can someone explain how imposing more tariff lead to decline of the economy of the nation. For instance take an example of US imposing tariff on 200 billion us dollars on Chinese goods. It has to show and it has to lead rise in economy of US by the end of 2020. But I've read an article where the impact will be completely reverse. Moreover how it would effect the other nations mostly India. +Hi all. Hope youā€™ve all had a lovely Christmas. + +Iā€™ve always been a really poor saver. I put some into a savings account and by the middle of the month, Iā€™ve moved it back into my current. + +Iā€™ve opened savings accounts with other banks, created standing orders, and again just moved the money back when things are really tight. With the new year round the corner, I really want to step up and do better. Iā€™m in my 30s with not even Ā£100 to my name in savings. Itā€™s embarrassing especially as Iā€™m on a relatively good salary. Iā€™ve been working since my teens so I really should have something to show for it but I donā€™t. + +Any tips (and hash truths) are very welcomed. +It is just under $1000 (I want to say they somehow took $400 from my 401k on purpose just to kick me out since there was nothing going into it, but I know better..) + +I was going to reinvest it into my current 401k but after being confronted with an expense that I cannot currently pay (no, I cannot take a loan out for it and I also don't have enough in savings for it) I am thinking about cashing this check and taking a hit on my taxes. + +My question is... if I cash this check, what do I need to prepare for when tax return season comes? + +I know cashing 401 is a horrible idea, I appreciate your opinion but I am not looking for feedback on my decision making. Just curious about the tax part of it. + +Thank you + + +Edit: Also, can anyone advise on if I am able to simply cash this check? I ask because I had this check setup to be rolled over to my other 401K, they sent it to the other investment company who then sent it to me because I missed something on the rollover paperwork [I don't know what this FIIOC and F/B/O means though](https://i.imgur.com/xYvKGjh.png) + +Edit 2: According to this site: https://financegourmet.com/blog/retirement/difference-between-a-rollover-and-a-transfer/ I can not cash this check which means I don't have to worry about the taxes anymore at this point. + +Thank you everyone for your input and your patience with my questions, have a lovely day +Short back story, I have a small business in the USA. Historical rate to ship a 40 ft container from Shanghai to USA east coast is $3,500-$4,500. Currently being quoted over $12,500+ and rising because there is a shortage of shipping containers. + +This shortage will affect all US importers. Insta-pots to tires to silverware. Get ready for insane inflation. We have not begun to scratch the surface of how aggressive it will be. + +How to invest in the stock market to most intelligently profit off this? In shipping container manufacturers, directly in shipping companies with the most container traffic from China or something smarter and safer than these first two? +Ive been lurking on a lot of the crypto reddit pages, and while i get a cheap laugh out of some most come across as childish and way too joking for something people want to promote as being a way of the future. Bitcoin is by farrr the worst with the constant barrage of memes, and while i gave up on BTC personally as i dont see it as being successful in the future as both an investment and a function, it saddens me to see memes on Ethereum based sub reddits, cause i see this as actually having use as both investment and as an innovative technology. My closing thoughts are that i hope that the Eth commnity takes itself more seriously than bitcoin does, and that if and when btc collapses (as i personally predict), that ethereum doesnt become the next mainstream meme fest of childish investors. + +curious about other peoples thoughts however. sorry for any gramatical mistakes, posting this both late at night and under the influence +**Positions:** + +DIS JUN 18 2021 160C + +DIS JAN 21 2022 260C + +DIS FEB 26 2021 180C (Riskiest) + +**Proof** +Market Value as of 2/8 +https://imgur.com/GRidPwQ + +**Thesis:** +Disney is going from a traditional stock into a growth stock because of Disney+ (guidance of 230m-260m subscribers by 2024). Opportunity for huge gains because of historically low IV and cheap option premiums. + +$DIS traded at ~116/share before they announced Disney+ so I believe this can trade higher than 300 by EOY. The catalyst for this to happen will be during the upcoming earnings this Thursday when they report a huge beat similar to Netflix (Netflix added ~8.5m vs ~6m expected and gained 10% next day). Last quarter Disney reported they reached 73 million paid subscribers. There is a chance Disney+ already has 100m subscribers with the success of WandaVision (first Disney+ exclusive Marvel content). Disney+ is cheap right now at 6.99 but will be increased as more content is released. + +So far there have been 2 original series and both are/were great (Mandalorian/Wanda Vision). Falcon and the Winter Soldier releases March 19 and subscribers will only start to snowball. Being 3 for 3 establishes a pattern and people will pick it up. + +Their original guidance for Disney+ was 60m-90m by 2024 and 10m by their first year. They had 10 million sign ups on day one alone. During their Investor day they announced 10 Star Wars and 10 Marvel Series with a ton of other content. I believe their revised guidance of 230m-260m is actually very conservative if the quality of their content keeps up. + +Has benefits from being a stay at home stock (Disney+) and opening the economy back up (resorts & cruises). + +IMO Disneyā€™s runup is only starting and this is an opportunity to capture the insane growth of Disney+ with long term call options. Here is a chart of Disney since the start of Disney+ up until Feb 6. This chart also has when I purchased my option positions and how much I paid. + +**Chart** +https://imgur.com/kGGbUAD + +As you can see I've been following the Disney+ saga since their investor day announcement in 2019. I was new to trading options back then and I lost a few thousand trying to sell a call spread. Never forgot how much the stock skyrocket when they announced the price of $6.99 + + +**An excerpt from Bob Iger's book** +ā€œWe wanted the service to be accessible to as many people as possible around the world, and we had settled on a price that we estimated would bring in somewhere between sixty and ninety million subscribers in the first five years. When Kevin announced we would be selling it for $6.99 a month, there was an audible gasp in the room.ā€ + +ā€œThe response from Wall Street went far beyond anything we anticipated. In 2015, our stock dropped like a stone when I talked about disruption. Now it was soaring.ā€ + + +**More thoughts:** +I have been very bullish on Disney after the markets stabilized from the COVID crash. I bought my first position because there was just a ton of upside. There was the possibility of opening back the economy from the vaccine and also revising their original guidance, which was actually hinted by their CFO during their Q3 earnings call. She said they would revisit their guidance during their next investor's day. (Which I also bought 20k more in weeklies that I closed at ~60k) + +Remember this isn't a 1M YOLO earnings play. Have been holding these positions for a while and paid a total of $212,236 divided in three separate occasions. +Hope we can all make money together :) +The reason Iā€™m asking is because when the discussion arises about the biggest tech companies and their possible upside in the future I mainly see the likes of AAPL, GOOGL and FB being mentioned. Microsoft however doesnā€™t seem to be named a lot. + +So Iā€™m curious how people on this subreddit look at the company in the long-term. Iā€™m quite bullish on them to be realizing the same amount of gains in the future as these other companies given the very solid foundations the company can rely on and they have the means to jump into any project they want. + +Letā€™s discuss. +The circle jerking is bad enough but as of this posting, there are 12 memes or silly images on the front page. + +You younger guys might not realize this but, the overall immaturity of this forum **really** discourages new consumers and business owners from taking bitcoin seriously. + + +A lot of people don't seem to be aware of the term "vacancy rate" so here is a quick explainer. + +The rental vacancy rate is an economic indicator which measures the percentage of rental homes that are vacant. + +How low this rate is (less than 3% etc) the more competition there is for housing. + +This rate will always usually be over 0% as there will always be housing going through transition, getting new tenants and so on. + +If this rate is high, it suggests that homes are taking longer to find a tennant (I.e supply is higher than demand). + +If it is very low it indicates its a landlords market and renters have very little choice. + +You can google your suburb and check out the vacancy rate. That will give you an indication as to how easy it would be to move and whether rent is likely to rise. + +Essentially, the lower the vacancy rate, the more likely rents will rise as you're in a landlords market. The higher the rate, the reverse. E.g when covid caused all the international students to leave, the vacancy rate temporarily jump in the city and city rent got cheaper. + +Hope this help! + +(And to beat a dead horse, rate changes has nothing to do with rental price, it is all vacancy rates) +$70,000/year. +Living at home. Single. +Deposit of $25,000. +Looking at borrowing $330,000. +Body corp $900/quarter. +Parents will go guarantor so no LMI. +I have $30,000 saved so Iā€™d have a $5000 buffer after the sale. + +Basically mortgage + body corp + rates works out to be 53%~ of my take home salary. + +Based on my calculations, after all my bills are paid Iā€™ll have $100/wk left over if I go on fixed. Like $150 or so if I go variable. + +Should I hold off until I have a bigger deposit? Iā€™m seeing people say that this figure should be more like 30% and I donā€™t know if Iā€™m preparing for financial suicide making a decision like this. + +Thoughts? +Hello fellow Canucks, + +I know one shouldn't base their investment decisions on those from the internet but I wanted to garner the opinion of this subreddit. + +Would it be wise or counter-productive to have a portfolio of 50% VGRO for the growth and 50% of about 5-7 dividend stocks? this is for someone who is in their mid-twenties. I know some of those stocks would be included in VGRO but it would be primarily top businesses in various sectors. + +&#x200B; + +let me know what you guys/gals think. Thanks! +I passed some time surfing and reading through this subreddit and I see many people recommends VGRO for long term investments. I'm a rather old newbie, at 34. + +I was wondering if I put my extra money every paycheck only in VGRO, until my retirement, is it a bad plan? Or should I split it in several (maybe VEQT as well?) + +I will probably try to buy a few individual stocks as well, because, I want to have a little bit of 'fun' too, but it would be a very small amount compared to the rest as I'm not enough confident and savvyy. +A Taproot activation mechanism called "[Speedy Trial](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/speedy-trial-merged-into-bitcoin-core)" has just started on the 1st of May. Its goal is to give miners an opportunity to coordinate a quick activation of the Taproot update. + +The gist of it is: miners are given a three months time period to signal for Taproot activation. Within those three months, there are six sub-phases (each consists of 2016 blocks, aka ~2 weeks). As soon as there are 90% of blocks signalling for Taproot within *any of those six sub-phases*, Taproot activation will be locked in. The actual new protocol rules will then be enforced starting from block height 709,632, which is expected to be mined in November. + +We are currently in the ~~first~~ ~~second~~ third of those six sub-phases, and Taproot activation will ~~not~~ happen in this one! ~~as miners need time to upgrade their equipment (this is expected, as the software update with Taproot activation mechanism was only [released a few days ago](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/bitcoin-core-0-21-1-taproot-code-out)).~~ But already now (as of 22th of May) there is roughly ~95% of mining power that has updated and started signalling for Taproot in at least some of their blocks. Keep in mind that 90% of blocks within one difficulty adjustment period (we're currently in the second of six of those periods) need to be signalling. This likely will be achieved when the signalling pools switch from signalling in some of their blocks to signalling permanently. + +#A new lock in period started on the 29th of May (ending on 12th/13th June) and it looks like we'll get Taproot locked in this period! Basically every pool is signalling right now (~99% of hash power), except unidentified miners. + +You can watch the currently signalling blocks/mining pools here (stand: 28th May): + +https://taproot.watch + +Currently signalling for Taproot: + +* SlushPool (~3% mining power) +* AntPool (~18%) +* F2Pool (~18%) +* ViaBTC (~11%, signalling in some of their blocks) +* Huobi (~7%, signalling in some of their blocks) +* 1THash (~5%, signalling in some of their blocks) +* Foundry (~4%) +* Poolin (~12%) +* BTC.com (~9%, signalling in some of their blocks) +* SBI Crypto (~1%) +* EMCDPool (~0.8%, signalling in some of their blocks) +* Binance (~6%) +* BTC.top (~4%, signalling in some of their blocks) +* TMSPool (~0.4%, signalling in some of their blocks) +* OKExPool (~1%, signalling in some of their blocks) +* WAYI:CN (~0.4%, signalling in some of ther blocks) +* SpiderPool (~0.2%) +* Sigmapool (~0.17%) + +Keep in mind, actual hashrate is always unknown and numbers above are an estimation only, based on observations of the recent blocks, which is always subject to variance. + + +#What is Taproot? + +> Summary +> +> * If you are a singlesig HODL-only Bitcoin user, Taproot will not affect you positively or negatively. Importantly: Taproot does no harm! +> +> * If you use or intend to use multisig, Taproot will be a positive for you. +> +> * If you transact onchain regularly using typical P2PKH/P2WPKH addresses, you get a minor reduction in feerates since multisig users will likely switch to Taproot to get smaller tx sizes, freeing up blockspace for yours. +> +> * If you are using multiparticipant setups for special systems of trade, Taproot will be a positive for you. +> Remember: Lightning channels are multipartiicpiant setups for special systems of lightning-fast offchain trades! + +Source: [Taproot - Why Activate](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/hrlpnc/technical_taproot_why_activate/) + + +Further reading: + +* [Explain Like Iā€™m Not a Developer: Taproot Privacy](https://braiins.com/blog/explain-like-im-not-a-developer-taproot-privacy) + +* [Taproot Is Coming: What It Is And How Will It Benefit Bitcoin](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/taproot-coming-what-it-and-how-it-will-benefit-bitcoin) + +* Podcast: [Discussing Taproot Activation Through Speedy Trial](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/discussing-taproot-activation-through-speedy-trial) (Aaron v Wirdum and Sjors Provoost) + +#FAQ: + +> **ELI5 this please?** + +There is an update to bitcoin's code, called Taproot. It is good for privacy and efficiency of some important usecases. The update itself (the code) is ready, now it needs to be activated on the network. The developers/users gave the miners three months time to coordinate this activation (the coordination through miners makes it a bit easier, if everyone cooperates). + +That three months time window started on the 1st of May, and this current thread is keeping track of the current activation status. Now we have to wait and see how cooperative the miners will be (most likely they will, but it's not a guarantee). + +> **If 90% is not reached by August, what then? Is Taproot dead?** + +No, if miners are not cooperating, then another activation mechanism will be attempted (probably something similar to UASF in 2017), where full node maintainers simply say "from blockheight x Taproot will be enforced and non-compliant blocks will be rejected", or something similar. The "speedy trial" mechanism was just the least contentious/the fastest one. If it doesn't work, we move on to another mechanism. + +> **If you are running a node - do you need to take any action now?** + +You don't *need* to, but you could upgrade your client to 0.21.1, which has Taproot activation code included: https://bitcoincore.org/en/2021/05/01/release-0.21.1/ + +Taproot is a soft fork, which means it is backwards compatible. Non-updated nodes will be able to stay on the network (and upgrade at their leisure at some point or not), but they won't be able to "understand" what Taproot is (afaik they'll see Taproot transactions as "anyone can spend" transactions, which are still fully valid by the bitcoin rules). + +> **Will Taproot/Schnorr be helpful for singlesig transactions with multiple inputs/outputs (f.ex coinjoins)?** + +No, at least not for now (although any user benefits slightly from reduced fee pressure overall). For those something called "cross-input signature aggregation" is needed. Excellent deep dive: [Taproot, CoinJoins, and Cross-Input Signature Aggregation](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ibcnsv/taproot_coinjoins_and_crossinput_signature/) + +> **How can I check on my own full node how many peers with Taproot compatible nodes are connected to me?** + +This command will show you your peers' client version: `bitcoin-cli getpeerinfo | grep '.subver' | sort -nk2r | uniq -c` + +> **How can I check on my own full node how many blocks are signalling Taproot in the current activation period?** + +The following command line prints the number of blocks in the current retarget period, the number of those blocks which have signaled, and whether itā€™s possible for taproot to activate in this period (assuming thereā€™s no reorg): + +bitcoin-cli getblockchaininfo \ +| jq '.softforks.taproot.bip9.statistics | .elapsed,.count,.possible' + ([Source](https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2021/05/05/)) + + + + +*Additions (more helpful links, questions, improvements etc) welcome! Please post them in comments :)* +**EDIT**: I didn't expect such a big response. Thank you SO much to everyone who offered advice and links to resources, I can't tell you how much I appreciate it. There are too many comments and messages to respond to individually but I have read each and every one. Thank you again. + +My mom doesn't want to go to the hospital because she already owes tens of thousands in medical bills. She said they will put a lien on the house and I don't really know what that is or how it works. She is elderly, disabled, and on Medicare/Medicaid. + +Her house is already paid off. I am 30 years old and disabled. I currently reside here and pay rent to her, but I do not own the house yet. I am supposed to inherit it when she dies, which will likely be soon. Does this mean I have to pay all her medical debt? Will they take the house away from me? I'm freaking the hell out. If she transfers the house into my name before she dies can I possibly avoid this? We are in Washington state, USA. + +Any advice is appreciated. Thank you. + +**EDIT: I found this:** + +"Can Medicaid take away someoneā€™s home? + +Part of the estate recovery process looks at property owned by the Medicaid beneficiary, and recovering some of the debt through the value of that property (this is called putting a lien on the house). + +The state can file a lien when the Medicaid recipient is institutionalized and not expected to return home, or after the beneficiaryā€™s death. However, the state cannot seize or place a lien on a home if any of the following of the beneficiaryā€™s family reside there: + +A living spouse + +A child under age 21 + +**A blind or disabled child of any age** + +A sibling with equity interest in the home, who has lived there for at least one year prior to the beneficiary entering a nursing home + +The lien is removed if the beneficiary returns home or the house is sold and Medicaid is reimbursed. Some states only put a lien on the home when the beneficiary is alive; others do this after death." + +Since I am disabled and I live here, does that mean they can't take the house from me or pass on the debt to me? +Snapchat is launching an updated version of Spectacles ā€” glasses with an embedded camera. +The company says its first version of the smart glasses sold over 220,000 units. +That first version also caused the company to take a nearly $40 million write-down in the third quarter due to excess inventory. +Maybe I do not know Tiktok well enough, but it doesn't have a hook like facebook does to get people to come back. Even though people do not use [facebook.com](https://facebook.com) as much, people are still using messenger for messaging their friends or whatsapp or Instagram. Tiktok is more similar to youtube in this regard in that from my understanding it is not being used as a way for connecting with friends and planning social events, eg "dinner @ 8, who's in?" + +&#x200B; + +I think it can semi-permanently steal market share from Google, but since their is no hook to get people to come back (like messenger for Facebook), a superior product can come and beat it. + +&#x200B; + +So While I do believe Tiktok can steal significant market share in the short run from Facebook, Google, in the long run unless they make DM easier, or embed themselves (which they trying to do very hard) in society, I don't think its a long term threat... + +&#x200B; + +What are your thoughts? + +Edit: Thanks for all your responses. Having never used TikTok I never realized how addicting it was. +**NYSE is closed and Iā€™m bored, so I did some math stuff with exponential growth rates.** + +I started wondering what the growth rate of the floor equation is and thought, hey I can use math stuff to figure that out. + +So here it goes. First we have the $GME exponential tracking chartā„¢ from Friday for reference: + +https://preview.redd.it/0k39n4evig271.png?width=808&format=png&auto=webp&s=91828c2cc5f61749a186c9d2068500e320d6ff7a + +**1) Calculation of the constant day-to-day growth rate of the exponential floor:** + +If we want to know how much the floor grows from day to day, we are gonna need the equation for exponential floor: + +https://preview.redd.it/ga5kzwofjg271.png?width=373&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e2b338c5333011cf9224599d1c7b6614c82ef84 + +Now we can calculate day-to-day growth rate as so: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/f51jayhojg271.png?width=752&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6f78bd51f75ddffe8fd2d459b13d290e0816076 + +So about 1.7% growth each day. Thatā€™s not too bad, but it doesnā€™t seem that impressive eitherā€¦ But hey, what if we look at the compounding effect over a year? + +&#x200B; + +**2) Calculation of the constant year-to-year growth rate of the exponential floor:** + +If we have 365 days in a year the constant year-to-year growth rate of the exponential floor is: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/d7k7gfh2kg271.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=54a25f3dc1308de3bc8c7aee687a5c6a56784863 + +**Yup, forty-six thousand and eighty-five percent growth in a year. Exponential growth is fun if you are on the right side of the deal šŸš€ šŸš€ šŸš€** + +&#x200B; + +**Update / addendum:** + +I you are bored too and for some twisted reason want to calculate the growth rate over N days, the formula is: + +https://preview.redd.it/er2oc8fqpg271.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe20a3048c6161dc370e53d739f6574d3bbc1f54 + +&#x200B; +Almost 600 holders and it's 3 days old. It's not an attempt to be a meme, rather a serious project to create an attractive deflationary investment. Half of the initial supply was burned (500 trillion) on launch, and if this maintains its growth the current price is an absolute fire sale.. + +8% tax on transaction means 2% more gains for you vs. 10% of other mainstream auto-staking tokens. 4/4 split between redistribution among all holders, and 4% to Locked LP. Devs have been working pretty hard to get everything set up prior to listings. It is already far more established than a 3 day old token should be (which is practically a dictionary definition of a hidden gem ready to breakout). + +I'm bullish, of course I hold $OCTA in my wallet. I have bought into a handful of these coins early (Safemoon, $FOX, $ELONGATE) and this one is by far the one I have the highest long term sentiment for.. I have made a couple posts in the past few days, and you are free to go back to see how much this is progressing and beginning to stick the rubber to the asphalt. + +BUT, don't take this as financial advice. This is MY own opinion on an asset I am biased towards. PLEASE do your own research, visit the website, view the roadmap, see the Locked LP for yourself, view the Telegram. I don't want you investing because of me. I just want to bring exposure to a project I believe in, and hopefully reveal this project to new people who will see the potential as highly as I do. + +Website: octanscrypto.com + +Address is on their site. + +Reddit: r/OCTANS_OCTA + +Telegram: t.me/OCTA_OCTANS + +Edit: Day 4, 1070+ +Almost 600 holders and it's 3 days old. It's not an attempt to be a meme, rather a serious project to create an attractive deflationary investment. Half of the initial supply was burned (500 trillion) on launch, and if this maintains its growth the current price is an absolute fire sale.. + +8% tax on transaction means 2% more gains for you vs. 10% of other mainstream auto-staking tokens. 4/4 split between redistribution among all holders, and 4% to Locked LP. Devs have been working pretty hard to get everything set up prior to listings. It is already far more established than a 3 day old token should be (which is practically a dictionary definition of a hidden gem ready to breakout). + +I'm bullish, of course I hold $OCTA in my wallet. I have bought into a handful of these coins early (Safemoon, $FOX, $ELONGATE) and this one is by far the one I have the highest long term sentiment for.. I have made a couple posts in the past few days, and you are free to go back to see how much this is progressing and beginning to stick the rubber to the asphalt. + +BUT, don't take this as financial advice. This is MY own opinion on an asset I am biased towards. PLEASE do your own research, visit the website, view the roadmap, see the Locked LP for yourself, view the Telegram. I don't want you investing because of me. I just want to bring exposure to a project I believe in, and hopefully reveal this project to new people who will see the potential as highly as I do. + +Website: octanscrypto.com + +Address is on their site. + +Reddit: r/OCTANS_OCTA + +Telegram: t.me/OCTA_OCTANS + +Edit: Day 4, 1070+ +I'll be honest, I'm always a bit flustered when this one gets levelled, because I never know where to begin in trying to debunk it. This is mainly because there are absolutely aspects of crypto investing that give off Ponzi vibes to the uninitiated - just look at all those rugged tokens, even the DAO's that make headlines because of sudden price plummets etc. And no doubt the 2017ish Bitcoin craze where thousands of people bought the top before a very cold winter is still fresh in people's minds, alongside BTC's current price situation. + +So my question is: how do you guys address the common accusation that we're all just crabs trying to claw our way to the tippy-top of a grand digital ponzi? Many thanks. + +**Edit:** To those saying "nothing", I appreciate the pragmaticism - but I'm after retorts that address the core scepticisms that a lot of people display towards crypto. Either way, I always ask myself *"am I still early??"* I wonder if the internet's early days were met with a similar response. +I have to say guys, that I currently love hearing about people that got burned in 2017 who maintained their faith in crypto and are now seeing their patience pay off. + + If you fall into this category, well done for not losing faith. It's been tough but we are at the beginning of a potentially massive bullrun. + + Remember, time in the market is better than timing the market. +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, Ethereum Classic, and minor questions. +- Important content should be posted as a separate thread. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Just wondering if anyone can provide feedback and active discussions regarding these topics + +Ethereum vs Bitcoin +1) Technological capacity/potential +2) Economic security vs miner node count diversification +3) Transactional use case +4) ETH(Ethereum is not ETH) vs BTC as a currency and its accessibility +5) Economical adoption and popularity +6) Business adoption and integration +7) Future target group prospects + +Personally, based on what I know these are my points + +1) Ethereum by far wins this one. Ethereum can do everything bitcoin can technologically wise PLUS +Can already +- act as the new decentralised "server" for all Developer applications +- allow for certain existing and new currencies/blockchain to merge and integrate into the ethereum blockchain. + +Which then leads to +- Dapps allowing IoT/smart devices that can communicate independently of each other( making stuff like auto selling excess solar power to neighbours/ drone delivery services / driverless car services/ airbnb auto lease services) +- decentralised media outlets +- decentralised identity database +- finance decentralised international banking apps +- realestate/automated inheritance apps/parliament voting list goes on basically anything u can think of as a business can be run on ethereum + +What's to come that bitcoin can't do +- even more transaction capacity( necessary to run more apps/ more intensive stuff ) +- sharding which allows data to be split and stored on computers world wide. ( every one holds 1 piece of a 2000 puzzle ) and we still make a full puzzle in the end +- with more transaction+sharding Ethereum is set to become the new internet that is decentralised. Nobody can stop it ever. No government can. Every device on the planet will be a part of the super computer mind hive and to shut down or block any part of the internet, the world would have to turn off ALL devices that exist. If a single device exists, the internet lives. (Different from now, internet is being supplied by a few companies in the world, like AT&T or GTT while data is stored by Google/Amazon etc. All other internet providers get internet from them and supply it to you) +- integration of quantum communication and computing transcending ethereum to the next level. We're talking about a super AI that can learn everything and anything and organise things to an unimaginable level based of everything it can access on the ethereum network(by then the ethereum network would have more information than google ever dreamt of) and the AI is answerable to nobody but the consensus of the population using the world AI run by ethereum. + +That's as much as we know now of the capabilities of ethereum. There could be more. +Interesting isn't it? Compared to old boring Bitcoin tech which was probably new 8 years ago but today, people are too slow to catch on to it. + +2) Ethereum has currently more hashrate security and node count than bitcoin. We overtook bitcoin as the world most secure blockchain by PoW and unique nodes. This means that we are effectively more decentralised than bitcoin and it will take someone with malicious intent more money to buy hardware to topple Ethereum than it would to topple bitcoin. The likelihood of Bitcoin suffering a 51% attack that will effectively destroy the blockchain is greater than Ethereum. Basically also it means that it's easier for someone to delete/ban your bitcoin in your wallet from being included in the chain if you're storing your life savings in bitcoin. + +3) Ethereum has long since surpassed (about a year now) the number of transactions that bitcoin is making per day namely due to more and more applications being run on the network. These are transactions that are from unique individus. Which means they aren't spam just for numbers. They're active use cases. Effectively ethereum is being used more than bitcoin. + +4) Ethereum currently loses on this front as bitcoin has a first mover advantage and its branding as blockchain technology has definitely put itself head of the game. When u hear news broadcasts speak about Dapps and potentials of the blockchain technology, they often misunderstand that it is run on bitcoin. Truth be told, bitcoin can barely run any Dapps effectively. So it can't be said that bitcoin does that. Bitcoin can only be said to be used for a transfer of funds or store. Also having been mentioned about in the past few years and being notorious for numerous instances, bitcoin is more publicly known for the time being. I think from here on when we're talking about Dapps it is essential for developers to correct the news hosts that it's not blockchain technology, the technology behind bitcoin that makes it possible. But It's Ethereum technology that makes it possible. Re iterate that it is Ethereum technology. Because that's the truth. Misinformation is bad. + +5) currently(in the last 6 months) economically bitcoin is being adopted much more than Ethereum. Being a good store value and its subsequent splits which gives early dumpers free money. This is likely to continue until ethereum is better known that it is superior to bitcoin in what it can do unfortunately. + +6) though economically Ethereum is losing to bitcoin currently, its business adoption has seen far greater support than bitcoin. Ethereum is growing and being adopted by businesses from all industries and it's a matter of time before products are ready where average customers would be using Ethereum on a daily basis. + +7) future target groups and prospects shows ethereum in a greater light. Ethereum has a much larger base of use cases to appeal to. It's ability to become the hub of world commodity trading and service distribution is unmatched while also being the brain of worldly science research(because of the amount of computational power it is able to provide). + +All in all Ethereum has yet to become the no.1 in economic dominance for blockchain technology, but it will be in a few years. Nobody expected amazon to be where they are today. No one could have imagined Jack Ma's ideas would make him so rich. No many dares to imagine Ethereum being the world dominator in the industries across the board. That's why I believe that it will be. + +Ethereum wins 5 to bitcoin 2 + +Anyone like to argue against what I've mentioned or add more details to it or have their own list please do share because I'm very interested in alternative points of views as well. +Get you stimulus check and buy an actual scarce asset for your depreciating dollars. The value proposition for Bitcoin is stronger than ever. The dollar is losing purchasing power everyday while Bitcoin remains as scarce as it will always be. Be the change and opt out of this corrupt system. +For me, I bought 20 shares of BABA at $280 and averaged to about 70 shares at $265. Saw it fall to $210 and decided I will sell it when I break even. Sold 50 shares for a $22 loss when it made a comeback and wanted to sell the rest for a $22 profit so that I get away with a perfect break-even because this man right here never sells for a loss...I kept waiting for it to hit my PT for a mere $22 profit and it never happened...it fell so I bought 25 more shares to avg down to $259 with a total of 45 shares so I can sell when it spiked again. It never spiked again and I am now sitting at a $6.2K loss just because of $22. + +So, what's your story? +What's this about? [MarketWatch shows losses on the 5D](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bynd) . The [dunkin donuts](https://twitter.com/GoodFoodInst/status/1186300060621033474) and the [Subway](https://twitter.com/BeyondMeat/status/1186798146153631744) launches are not getting good reaction on the floor? Someone smarter than me will explain this so well that it'll make me look like a fool. +To clarify this is my first DD, sorry if it looks messy and unformatted I am doing my best. I am bullish on the Score and hold 33 shares at a 32.59 CAD AVG. I intend on adding more once my swings either pay me out or inevitably hit my stop loss. I am not even remotely close to a financial advisor, I just started trading recently, so it is not a wise idea to buy or sell anything because of me. + +I also posted this in r/stocks if that is not ok I am sorry and will delete this. + +Ticker:SCR + +Marketcap:1.3bil USD + +Shares outstanding:50 mil The Float:28mil + +AVG Volume:330,000 + +All numbers from FINVIZ + +CEO:John Levy [https://ca.linkedin.com/in/johnlevythescore](https://ca.linkedin.com/in/johnlevythescore) + +Also the SCR just wen through an aggressive 10 to 1 r/S to get listed on the NASDAQ so institutional investors would take them seriously, which can explain why some of your charts may look funky. The r/S initially had the $SCR jump up to 54 CAD but then went down to like 26 CAD, now it seems to be consolidating in the low 30s. + +The Bull Case + +TheScore media is a Canadian based media company which is looking to get into the online gambling industry. The Score is the third biggest sports app in North America and biggest in Canada. The familiarity with the brand should be massive in Canada, and some experts have predicted Ontario itself to have 2-3 billion in annual revenue from sports betting (probably thanks to the Leafs sucking ass when it counts). Online gambling has been a craze with legalization becoming more imminent, and governments wanting to rake in that extra tax revenue. + +Canada has just recently passed bill C-218, which aims to legalizes all single game sports betting. There is another reading tomorrow, where John Levy will be present to speak. Trudeau and his liberals also seems super pumped about passing this bill, as it can be a way to pay back CERB and other covid related debts. + +PENN owns a 4.1% stake in the SCR and there have been buyout rumours from DKNG. Both want the brand that the Score owns. TheScore also has a partnership with PENN, where theScore bet app can be in states that PENN is in, as theScore is currently operating in Colorado, Iowa, Indiana and, New Jersey. As other states are set to legalize, theScore is hoping to get a piece of the American pie. Canada it will be much less complicated to operate. + +PENN's market cap is 16.89 billion and Draftkings (DKNG) is 26.79 billion. Although I do not think $SCR will reach that anytime soon, it demonstrates the room for improvement. + +SCR also just closed the 186 million IPO in the USA. They have lots of cash to throw at ads and others things a sports books will need. + +They are also doing aggressive promos, like a $500 first bet risk-free. I have not used the app as I am Canadian and it is not available yet, but looking at videos and pictures, it looks clean. [https://www.thescore.bet](https://www.thescore.bet/) + +Macquarie today initiated coverage on $SCR with an outperform rating and a $44 price target, and they are known for giving pretty conservative ratings. It is exciting that the score is getting the attention it deserves. + +My PT is $70ish EOY and $150ish by 2025, but I also pulled these numbers out of my ass so don't base anything off of them. + +BEARISH CASE + +I am afraid of off-shore sports books already taking away a lot of the revenue of people who are already betting. Before I got into investing I used to bet with Betway and was confused why my money was being converted into pounds and it was always advertising soccer. I didn't realize what I was doing was illegal and many others don't. Also I don't think a ton of people would change apps unless the government tried to ban them or something. I am not very knowledgeable in the offshore sports books world. + +Also DKNG and PENN are such monsters that they could just smother us with there promos and ads. + +TLDR:$SCR is a media company which is turning to online gambling for sports. There is a lot of room for improvement. IANAFA. Do your own DD. + +Any feedback on my first DD would be greatly appreciated. I know this isn't super complex with TA or financials, as I am still learning. +When I suggested doing 45DTE CSP and closing them at 50% profit or 21DTE, most people replied with what the title suggest. I feel like now is the perfect moment to understand it. + +90% of this sub donā€™t know what playing theta is. Deep down this sub is as retarded as WSB. + +Also, the wheel strategy wonā€™t break benchmarks if it cannot handle small bumps. (Weā€™re not even close to a correction yet, and all of your accounts are down bad bad bad) + +Now you know. Also, WSB is the place for bad risk/reward strategy, r/thetagang shouldnā€™t beā€¦ +Merry Xmas everyone, here is my question. I have 30k. i like selling puts and that is what i want to do. however 30k wont return me much per year, so i was wondering what everyone thinks of nvda jan 2024 leaps. Will tech suffer going forward with rates due to increase? or will tech end up higher in 2024? i ask this as i would like to to turn this 30k to possibly 100k by 2024 and then sell puts from there. +I've been selling a csp on amc 2 weeks out for about 60 in premium usually. I sold one a week ago and could now buy to close at $3.50 total (56.5 profit on premium). It seems like it makes more sense to do this and free up the capital so I can write another put that expires next Friday. Is there any reason to wait for expiry on Friday? I can't really think of any +Rolled over my old 401k to an IRA and looking to buy some VOO and individual stocks for my long term portfolio. I'm considering selling slightly ITM CSPs (e,g. selling March 70 puts for a stock that trades at 65) rather than buying the stock outright. What downsides am I missing here? + +I can come up with three scenarios: + +1.) Stock goes down into expiration and I'm assigned for a loss (or a slight gain if the stock only goes down a little), but I'm still better off than if I had just bought the stock at time = 0 because I earned the premium. + +2.) The stock goes flat or slightly up but below the strike into expiration and I'm assigned. I'm better off than had I purchased the stock at time 0 + +3.) The stock goes up past the strike into expiration and I keep the premium. I may have been better off had I bought the stock at time = 0 but that is opportunity cost. I then roll over the CSPs to April +Any successful 2020 wheelers here with PM and larger accounts? If so can you please discuss a few things: + +1. Account size +2. 2020 Return +3. Primary wheel stocks/ETFs/futures and why you chose them +4. How you manage your PM and discipline yourself to take assignment so you don't end up taking assignment on something like $1M of underlying +5. Primary wheel strategy. Eg, sell put (what delta?), assigned, sell call (what delta?), what duration options? +6. Other strats that have made you good $$$ in addition to wheeling. Eg, sell a naked call on top of covered call to reduce delta, sell strangles, etc. +7. How active you are in your account on a daily basis. Eg, look at it 5 minutes a day, once a week, etc. +8. Anything else you want to discuss related to strategy, allocation, etc. + +Edit: I am aware of joonie's thetagang site where people track their trades. If you have any interesting pages from there (or somewhere else) to share that shows people's trades, please share. I learn by example so I like to see what others are trading. +Hey Gang! + +&#x200B; + +On Februrary 19 I sold a CRSRS put (strike 35, expiry 03.19 @ 2.05), at the time it seemd great of course, but then we all know what has been happening in the markets since. I'm interested if there is any one else in a similar situation, and how they are managing their risk. + +I personally consider just holding it through (even if I get assigned at the end) as long as the price stays above \~30, if it drops I'm considering rolling it down (and maybe out?) with the main consideration being I am not really willing to take a loss on the trade so I might have to roll it very far out (if it's over a month then I will likely just take assignment instead). + +I still do believe in the company on the long-term, though the expiry of the lock-up period might interfere with it on the short-term (it expires on 03.22), I think it wil further depress the price (could be a good entry opportunity if you're not invested and AFTER DOING your own DD you agree with my OPINION that it is a good long-term buy) (obviously this is not any kind of advice, just my opinion, please don't believe my blindly). + +Is there any one else also short on ITM puts for CRSR, or just maybe in the red for the stock? What's your stategy for managing risk if it keeps falling? I would like to hear opinions both bullish and bearish if there's any one who would like to share! +Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum. +So at first glance, options seemed incredibly complex to me. Complex math of course, combined with all sorts of weird jargon, and some famous examples of options trading going catastrophically wrong. + +I got into it from reading about the idea of selling naked puts, which seems very simple. People don't want risk, especially the fat-tail risk, so they'll pay a premium to make it go away. This is completely well-known and robust in all markets. So you make money by collecting that premium, and just manage your own risk so you don't get blown up when things crash. + +When I read about other options-selling strategies... they all seem like basically the same thing? You're just "selling insurance" in one form or another. Maybe you're selling calls, covering people who are afraid of a big upward move for whatever reason. Maybe you're selling spreads, so you're only insuring against smaller moves. Maybe you're insuring against time as well as price. Maybe you're doing it long term, or short term, or on commodities, or on the vix, or whatever. All sorts of complicated strategies. + +But it all seems to end up being the same thing: + +(1) collect risk premium + +(2) manage your own risk so you don't get blown up + +...right? Which makes me think that basically all of these strategies end up being more-or-less the same. You just have to calculate your risk, and bet accordingly with something like the [Kelly Criterion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion). I feel like there's a lot of flim-flam going on where people try to make it seem like they've got some killer strat that only works with very specific timing/prices/markets, but if you do the math properly you'd see it's all the same risk/reward payoff. + +It's most obvious when you look at volatility. You could sell an option on something with high volatility and make a high premium, but that also comes with high risk for you. Or you could sell one with low volatility and low risk. If you sell multiple options on the low volatility one, it ends up exactly the same. + +Maybe there are some inefficient options contracts out there which could be found and exploited. But they'll probably be found by some quantitative finance firm running algorithmic trading, not by some rando staring at charts. +So let's say theoretically I know a guy who made money getting lucky on selling puts and getting assigned a high IV stock before it went way up. Now this sad degenerate wants to sell long out (say Oct. 13thish) covered calls for an insane premium... like 8-9000k per contract for a stock at 180, sell calls at 200. How is he going to get torn apart? Or what should he do different or better? (Besides not being in a high IV play.) +Iā€™ve been hodling a number of shares since buying in Jan after lurking wsb. Bought more every chance ive had and havent sold a single share even through all the fuckery. I have been completely silent from r/wsb to r/gme and now to my true home r/superstonk despite checking them probably more often than is healthy. I felt the need to put some things to paper and nobody but you guys will get how iā€™m feeling so I figured iā€™d finally post something. If youā€™ve got the time in between snorting crayons (my favorite is red) and fucking my wife give it a read and maybe you feel some of the same things that iā€™ve been feeling. + +Iā€™m 22 years old and I never saw myself being rich. I figured I was destined to live the same life as my parents, working as a slave to the machine tillā€™ I died. I remember back when covid first started I had a feeling that there was money to be made somewhere off the govs money printer going brrrrr. I have an acorns account but that was my full extent of knowledge in the investing world (so literally nothing). Wanting to get into it but not knowing how for a whole year through covid, I stumbled upon a comment in an askreddit thread that mentioned reddit telling people to buy GME. I decided to investigate and was completely swept with confirmation bias and learned more about the markets in 2 days than I did in my entire life. I took a leap and bought my first shares with probably the same thinking a lot of you had.. +ā€maybe it happens maybe it doesnā€™t, at least its a good investment long term and afterall, I like the stock!ā€ + +Jump forward to Jan 28th. That was the day I knew I made the right choice and solidified my diamond hands forever. + +Iā€™ve long hated the 1%ā€™ers greed and have always seen the corruption and downright disgusting amount of wealth. If you havenā€™t seen this graphic I encourage you to take a few minutes and check it out. It puts into perspective how much money these guys really have in an easily digestible fashion. + +https://mkorostoff.github.io/1-pixel-wealth/ + +Fuck these guys. The amount of problems that could be fixed by distributing that wealth is mind boggling to me. The amount of greed in this country isnt just deplorable, its down right not human. In my mind there should be no other agenda from governing bodies more important than furthering humanity and ensuring its existence for as long as possible. These hedgefucks and people like them are directly impacting the world in ways that literally shaves time off of humanity. And a significant amount at that. + +Im a scuba diving instructor and the ocean is my home. If and when this squeezes to 10 mill and beyond..which believe me im far past doubting it at this point..I will use my tendies to try to reverse some of the downright awful things we have done to this planet and I know the rest of you will be right behind me. + +Being a long time redditor and life long gamer, iā€™ve spent my fair share of time on the internet. There has never been anything even close to the comraderie and brother/sisterhood we have created. I love all of you and we will be rockin it all the way to the moon and beyond. + +Diamond fucking hands everyone. We have won. The people have finally won. Its fucking surreal. + +šŸš€šŸ¦šŸ¦§šŸ’Žāœ‹šŸš€ +https://www.sec.gov/rules/concept/concept4.txt + +> Under the DRS Concept, assuming the issuer and transfer agent elect to offer DRS services, an investor may instruct the broker-dealer at the time of purchase to register the securities directly on the books of the issuer, to leave the securities with his broker in street name, or to request a certificate. If an investor does not choose an option, the securities will be registered on the books of the issuer in book-entry form as the default form of registration. + +Further, I found this letter, sent to the Secretary of the SEC ten years later, which references that proposal (SEC Concept Release No. 34-35038), to be rather inspiring... Here are some choice highlights... (several minutes later: seems I've ended-up copy/pasting about half the dang letter šŸ˜… it's _all_ worth reading!) + +https://www.sec.gov/rules/concept/s71304/ilf061604.pdf + +> The DRS would allow shareholders to "register securities in their own names" rather than conduct all dealings with their issuer through a financial intermediary... +> +> We have created a system that is even worse than the bearer share system used in Continental Europe. The extreme irrationality of keeping issuers and shareholders secretly secluded from each other, while third party service-providers such as clearing agencies have ready access to the relevant information has led to awkward solutions such as the efforts to restrict share transfers, as discussed in the Proposed Rule. +> +> This secret shareholding arrangement is normally justified as the unfortunate result of an effective clearance and settlement system. However, the technology of 1974 is not the technology of 2004. Dematerialized securities settled through a DRS...would restore the proper relationship between shareholders and their companies. +> +> If immobilization, dematerialization and DRS are discussed in isolation from their impact on the content of shares, such as voting rights, the true advantages of the DRS will likely remain unexpressed. Further, if the expensive and time-consuming detours in shareholder communications under the Proxy Rules and the other problems arising from anonymous shareholdings are discussed divorced from the structural problems that cause them, no workable solution will be found. +> +> If shareholders were to understand that dematerialized shares settled through a DRS would give them a more direct relationship with their company and the other shareholders than that provided by certificated securities held through their broker, they would also understand why they should give up paper. If the Commission were to clearly explain the corporate governance advantages of the DRS or similar systems, state lawmakers, issuers and the investing public would understand why they should embrace dematerialization. +> +> I respectfully request that the Commission study reducing the use of physical securities in the context of the impact of the securities settlement system on corporate governance (i.e., ease of shareholder communications, the cost and speed of the current system for distributing proxy materials, and the extent to which shareholder registers really contain any information ā€“ allowing issuers to address ā€œnakedā€ short selling, creeping tender offers and other undesired activities). In light of current technology, there is no reason why Ā§ 17A Exchange Act should create an undesired culture of shareholder anonymity that must then be overcome with expensive and time-consuming procedures under the Proxy Rules. National security concerns such as money-laundering and the financing of terrorism would also be much easier to address in a system of transparent shareholdings. + +Again, louder, for the apes busy making-out in the back: + +# DRS is supposed to be the default form of share registration, and it has many advantages: from providing shareholders with "a more direct relationship with their company and the other shareholders" to giving companies (like GameStop) a way "to address naked short selling" and more!!! + +BTW: That letter was written by David C. Donald... We've talked about him before, including in relation to u/Atobitt's "House of Cards" DD: + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mw448c/re_atobitts_hoc1_how_would_apes_like_it_if_the/ + +> ...the paper "The Rise and Effects of the Indirect Holding System" by law professor David C. Donald (Link here: https://www.ilf-frankfurt.de/fileadmin/_migrated/content_uploads/ILF_WP_068.pdf). +My wife and I just had our second kid a few weeks ago and realized quickly we needed a larger car that could accommodate my 6'1" body with a rear facing child seat directly behind. No small feat. We currently own a 2018 CX-5 (wife+kid car) and a 2012 Honda Fit (my commuter). Both cars are paid off. + +Fortunately, we were able to purchase a new car at invoice pricing due to some corporate partnerships my job has with a major Japanese automotive manufacturer. Could not pass that up in today's market; a better deal compared to even a couple year old used car. + +We both max out our 401k and usually contribute a couple grand to Roth IRA. Neither of jobs offer an an HSA eligible healthcare option. Household gross is approx $220k w/o bonus in a MCOL area and have an emergency fund but granted it could be better. We have zero debit outside of our mortgage. + +My question is...can we afford to trade in the Honda (approx $8.5k trade in value via KBB) or is the better decision to trade in the CX-5 (approx $25k trade in value via KBB). + +We will likely put a couple grand as down payment and also qualify for promotional financing so trading in the CX-5 would net a near zero car payment. Trading in the Honda would net about $500 car payment. + +My motivation here is that my commute is approx 1hr each way (I know...) and the creature comforts for the newer/nicer car are very valuable to me. + +However, we will soon have 2 kids in full time daycare and that shit is horribly expensive and makes a $500 car payment look like pocket change. + +What say you, internet strangers? +Short story: + +Wife's car is on its last leg, so she's been driving my truck, which I own. So we're at a point where we need to invest in a new car. + +We can either purchase a new family sedan at something close to 0% or we can lease. + +I am self-employed. + +At what point does it make more sense to lease than buy? Is there an accountant's formula that would help point us in the right direction? +I just joined a company with a 5% match for 401k. The caveat is that I wonā€™t be seeing the match until itā€™s vested for 5 years. I doubt Iā€™d stay with the company for that long. Should I open an account anyway? What other options should I look into? I already have a Roth IRA that Iā€™m contributing to. + +I have over 50k in credit card debt that I can't pay off because I'm struggling to make it month to month as it is. My credit cards are all in collection at this point as it's been over two years since I stopped paying them off because I didn't have the funds. I can't file for chapter 7 as I make too much to qualify, but not enough to pay them off. I'm hoping this situation changes soon depending on how things go, and I'll be able to make more money, my problem is I don't know how to fix my credit at this point. I'm depressed and stressed out from all this. I just want to get out of debt finally. Any help or advice would be much appreciated! +Some background: my father is 52.5, makes $80k/yr, and his company offers a standard 6%/3% match (so he contributes 6% of his income to a 401k, and the company an extra 3%). He doesn't believe in saving for retirement (for stubborn reasons), and does not have a 401k. **Today, I asked him if I could give him $4800/year for the next 7 years, and in exchange he would sign up for the 401k and take the match. Then when he turns 59.5, I would like him to withdraw the 4800 x 1.5 x 7 = $50,400 and give it to me.** He was pleasantly surprised by the idea, and said he'd think about it. In theory, it sounds like a guaranteed 50% return on investment for me (because I am getting all the match money). In practice, I have a lot of questions. I'll list them here: + +* If he's making a 6% contribution, that money is tax advantaged. So his take-home income doesn't actually decrease by $4800--we must make the adjustment for the 22% tax bracket. So I could actually pay him just 4800 x (1 - 0.22) = $3744/year and his take-home pay would stay the same. Is this correct? +* If he doesn't stop working at 59.5, can we keep the deal going? Can he withdraw the $50,400 in 2028 and then make additional $7200 withdrawals every year thereafter? +* Is this legal? Would I have to pay taxes on my "investment income"? Can he just give me a $50,400 "gift" in 7 years? Is the IRS going to come knocking? +* I know him and fully expect him to hold up his end of the deal, but don't trust him to properly manage the 401k. Can I manage it for him? Is that legal? +* Are there any other loopholes/hurdles I should be aware of? + +Thank you in advance! + +EDIT: My father comes from a culture where keeping your word is a core part of your identity. He has worked himself to the bone to repay family loans in the past, so I don't worry he will reneg on his part of the deal. Thank you for your concern! +Ashok Leyland share is worth 95.85 right now and many analysts are bullish on it for the short term. Seen a lot of articles saying it should reach 110 easily. But is the current price good? + +I'm thinking about investing in it for a year or so. +I am thinking of starting to trade options, I have an understanding of the process and have made money in the stock market, I wish to learn more on options, is there a course by someone that knows what they are talking about? +Fellow idiots, + +I posted [this comment](https://i.imgur.com/av1WTXI.png) which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /r/investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse. + +TL;DR at the bottom. + + +**Point 1:** +Defaults in China have [been accelerating aggressively](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-07/china-defaults-hit-record-in-2018-the-2019-pace-is-triple-that), and [through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50%](https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3020099/bankruptcies-among-chinese-developers-are-half-amid-slowing-economy) over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too. + + +**Point 2:** +[The RMB has depreciated significantly](https://i.imgur.com/JeyxVSD.png). Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, [outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emerging-china-iif/china-net-2016-outflows-at-record-725-billion-iif-idUSKBN15H1FL). This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them. + + + +**Point 3:** +Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the [middle income trap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap). Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we [normally associated with being developing/emerging markets](https://i.imgur.com/O3rVFZF.png). Tangentially related to point 10. + + +**Point 4:** +China is an export-dependent economy, with [about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP](https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/China/Exports/). Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? [Chinese exports dropped 1% in August](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/08/chinas-exports-to-us-fell-16percent-in-august-as-trump-escalates-trade-war.html), and [August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth.](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/49ec580e-7985-4efb-afb8-7edcbd64685a). + +**Point 5:** +Business [confidence has been weak in China](https://i.imgur.com/oe1UtC5.png) - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point. + +**Point 6:** [Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 *percentage points* since 2010](https://i.imgur.com/yy8Md2j.png). While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment. + +**Point 7:** They are an extremely levered economy with a [total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt/chinas-debt-tops-300-of-gdp-now-15-of-global-total-iif-idUSKCN1UD0KD), per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of *global total fucking debt*. Here's an interview with [someone else talking about it too](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/chinas-debt-levels-amid-its-slowing-economy.html). + +**Point 8:** Their central bank recently introduced a [metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-06/china-cuts-banks-reserve-ratio-to-ramp-up-easing-support). This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point. + +**Point 9:** Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to [this joint statement](https://www.amcham-shanghai.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/Joint_survey_on_tariffs_May_2019.pdf), around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now? + +**Point 10:** Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with [many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade](https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorcharts/EMERGING-RATES-FACTBOX/0H001QETE864/index.html). Investors want safety, and [safe-haven](https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/daily_trading_lesson/2018/12/13/safe-haven-currencies.html) denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment. + +Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid. + +***TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /r/investing.*** + + +Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind: + +* US treasuries still have room to run (before the autists say that's not yolo enough you could trade OTM calls on UST-linked ETFs, US govvie futures for gainz) + +* Japanese yen + +* Sell SPX companies with big supply chain exposure and heavy cost of capital, buy their competitors without these features. + +* Open up apparel factories in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and sell to the US. + +* Buy soybeans assuming farmers get a bailout from US + +* I am sure there are plenty of China based ETFs which could be played, DYOR. + +* Short any US listed company with mainland China domicile. If shit REALLY hits the fan between US/China, there are levers that US Govt. can pull to fuck them. + + +^^*not ^^investment ^^advice* +Anyone else reading the forums? It's a rollercoaster over there. + +Threads about tenants requesting rent cuts and how that goes. It's a fascinating mix of people there too. You have the cold-hearted capitalist types who are like "don't gamble on property if you think you'll never lose" facing off against those who want Government help or who believed property always goes up. + +Some of the stuff that comes up is interesting. Like landlord insurance - to make a claim it requires commencement of eviction procedures. That could get interesting if not addressed. Can't evict, can't claim on insurance. + +Some agencies have rent guarantees so even if the rent doesn't get paid, they pay the landlord. Wonder how many of them will hold up? + +Saw some posts with people with multiple properties openly admitting if any drop or stop payment, they're done. Those ones get a big spicy, especially when the cold-heart capitalists just lay it out how property isn't guaranteed return. + +I've even seen an argument where agencies telling renters to contact them if they have financial distress shouldn't happen because it will give the renters "ideas". + +Certainly some people were highly overextended. The ones borrowing massively and are totally reliant on rent being paid so they can eat. + +I'm interested to see what Morrison's tenancy legislation changes will be. Landlords not being able to make a claim without starting eviction - I wonder if this will be addressed. +Hey Ausfinance crew, + +24M, just finished my physiotherapy degree and about to start a grad job (at a public hospital earning $67K). My perspective on physio has changed dramatically over the last few years as Iā€™ve learnt more about the industry and a lot of it has got me turned off from it, especially in regards to the work:reward ratio and career progression (being a very bottom heavy profession). + +Despite this, Iā€™m going to give it a crack and my passion for the work itself might be enough to stay in it. +In saying that, I am wondering what other jobs/industries I could look into either studying part-time or get into later unqualified, that are in demand, pay better and have far clearer career progressions than physio does. Any suggestions are welcomed, I am merely seeking other perspectives/options if things donā€™t work out for me in physio. + +Wishing all you legends the best for 2021 +Question for all you investors. + +Had a realtor contact me that she had a property 3b/2bath 2,000 sq ft. Built in 1981. Estimated value $133,000 + +Listed at $42,000 + +&#x200B; + +Here is the kicker. Possible black mold so no entrance allowed. Anybody done this on blind faith? What is the worst case scenario? Take things down to studs and joists and hiring a black mold crew? + +Any experience in this? + +[UPDATE] +I went by property this morning. It evidently has a basement that is flooded. I could see where they have torn up flooring with black mold underneath, all ceiling fans were drooping, ceiling covered in black mold in certain rooms, they had several exterior windows open to vent. Other than that it was a very nice property, with new roof. Realtor is currently getting permission to allow abatement crew to come in and quote. +Is this a situation that needs to be addressed in the lease? + +If so, what can I do to protect myself somehow in the case of tenant breaking the lease early? +What is it called if i wanted to have my family pool or invest money monthly and with that money we secured real estate? Im trying to find a financial advisor but not sure where to start. +My real estate agent buddy, whom I've known for a long time, wants me to loan him $7500 for a max of 45 days to pay off his contractors while his investment property flip closes. I don't have any reason to distrust his intentions as he's helped me close on a few deals and he lives and owns right around the corner; ie: he's low risk for fleeing the state for this amount. He's also done flips before. + +I had him write up a contract that says the following: + +This agreement covers the personal loan provided by (loaner) to (borrower), signed into effect on x x , 2020. The terms of the agreement are as follows: + +-(loaner) will loan (borrower) $7,500 (principal loan) + +-(borrower) will repay (loaner) the principal loan amount of $7,500 plus 10% interest of the principal loan ($750) which brings the total repayment to $8,250. + +-(borrower) will have 45 days from the day the money is received to repay the loan & interest total of $8,250 to (loaner) + +-The money will be used for (borrower)s investment property, at (address) for roofing, staging, lender dues, and materials/supplies + +-If (borrower) is not able to pay the loan back within 45 days, an additional $500 penalty will be assessed for every 15 additional days it takes to repay the loan in full. For example, if it takes 60 days to pay the loan back for example, (borrower) will owe (loaner)$7,500 principal + $750 interest + $500 penalty = $8,750. If it takes 75 or less days there will be a $1,000 penalty. This penalty amount continues to increase by $500 for every 15 days outstanding until the loan is repaid. + +We will both then sign the agreement. + +Pretty straightforward but am I not considering something to protect me, like actual collateral? Any advice would helpful. +My tenant just abandoned the place, but he took the keys, transponder, fobs, and lock. I'm assuming I can keep his deposit now because he failed to pay this month's rent and the place has been cleared out. Should I pursue legal action? he was 1 month into a one year renewed contract +Seems cross chain bridges have serious problems with security. + +Back in January 7th 2022 Vitalik posted this warning: +https://nitter.net/i/status/1479501366192132099 + +*My argument for why the future will be multi-chain, but it will not be cross-chain: there are fundamental limits to the security of bridges* + +###The Hacks So Far This Year +Only May didn't register a hack. I've used the term hack but this is a generalisation of whatever attack vector was used to drain funds. + +**January 20th 2022 - Multichain bridge hacked for ~3 million** + +https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/01/20/multichain-hack-worsens-as-loss-of-funds-reaches-3m-report/ + + +**January 28th 2022 - Qubit Finance bridge hacked for ~80 Million** + +https://cointelegraph.com/news/qubit-finance-suffers-80-million-loss-following-hack + + +**February 2nd 2022 - Wormhole bridge hacked for ~323 Million** + +https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/02/how-323-million-in-crypto-was-stolen-from-a-blockchain-bridge-called-wormhole/ + + +**February 8th 2022 - MeterIO bridge hacked for ~4.4 Million** + +https://cointelegraph.com/news/latest-defi-bridge-exploit-results-in-4-4m-losses-for-meter + + +**March 30th 2022 - Ronin bridge hacked for ~650 Million** + +https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-aftermath-of-axie-infinity-s-650m-ronin-bridge-hack + + +**April 7th 2022 - Wonderhero bridge hacked for ~300 Thousand** + +https://mpost.io/wonderhero-token-collapses-after-hack/ + +**June 24th 2022 - Harmony One bridge hacked for ~100 Million** + +https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/24/hackers-steal-100-million-in-crypto-from-harmonys-horizon-bridge.html + + +**July 11th 2022 - ChainSwap bridge hacked for ~4.4 Million** + +https://decrypt.co/75698/chainswap-exploit-leads-to-multi-million-loss-for-defi-tokens + + +**August 2nd 2022 - Nomad bridge hacked for ~200 Million** + +https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/2/23288785/nomad-bridge-200-million-chaotic-hack-smart-contract-cryptocurrency + + +Be extremely cautious when using crypto bridges, as these losses are just terrible. +Title says it all. Looking to buy into a few more low caps. Ideally under 10m cap, legit project, solid track record, competent team, and low supply. + +My current faves: + +$DIS +$EASY +$SOAR +$CUDOS + +Shill me your best šŸ˜Š +-Buy SP500 ETF +-Don't dump it all in, dollar cost average! +-Hold forever! +-Actively managed funds suck because they don't outperform the SP500! + +"But what if I invested all in Apple in 1990?" +-Past performance is not indicative of future results! Diversify! All-in SP500 ftw! + +"What about other indices?" +-Murica only! Look at the Nikkei, it sucks! + +"But, past performance isn't indica..." +-Except the SP500! It only goes up since 100 years! + +"Ok, SP500 it is. When do I buy it?" +-Yesterday! Asap! But dollar cost average! + +"Why not dump it when it's low since it always goes up?" +-Past performance isn't indicative... +Please utilize this sticky thread for all **Bitcoin** price discussions! + +If you see vapid price posts on /r/Bitcoin/new, please help us out by directing the OP to this thread and reporting theirs. Thank you! +I've never written one of these status posts but given it's the new year and some life changes are about to happen, I reckon this is as good of a time as ever to start anew. + +&#x200B; + +# Background about me + +Bit about me, I am 32, living in an Ultra HCOL (NYC) and have been actively saving for FIRE for the last 4 years (no kids, probably no plans to). Previous to that, I had a few years where I succumbed to the standard life inflation lifestyle that befalls everyone but I was young and down to party. I always managed to save my bonuses and made some decent investments that had good returns. It wasn't really until 2015 when I read a few articles and blogs that it all clicked. + +I work in Finance so my salary and bonus is probably higher than most, but not out of the realm of other FIRE peeps here. I was making $200k+ in salary and bonus before I was 30. However, NYC is expensive and a one bedroom apartment in Manhattan is $3.5 to $4k/mo so it all works out. Plus we have the highest taxes in the country. + +&#x200B; + +# Why FIRE? + +Everyone has their own reasons for FIREing and mine is perhaps no different to most others. It's not that I absolutely hate what I do in Finance. I mean I studied, went to colelge, and prepared my whole life for it in one way or another. I thought I was all about it when I first started because as a 22 year old, you think this is what I am supposed to be doing in life and the path to full on adulting. But as time goes on, as I traveled more, I realized that there is just more to life, and I am supposed to be doing something else that is no looking at multiple monitors for the entire day and making powerpoint presentations. + +So my plan is to continue traveling around the world full time and eventually work as a dive instructor somewhere and maybe even transition to some sort of marine research that involves lots of diving. + +&#x200B; + +# Account Values + +I started working weeks before the Lehman collapse. Didn't really know what was happening at the time. My NW before 2014 are all estimates as I was not tracking anything during that time period. + +&#x200B; + +**2008: -$20,000.** + +Student loans, irresponsible credit card debt accrued in college killed me the first few months of adult life. $65k entry salary. + +**2009: $25,000** + +A sign on bonus, year end bonus, and tax return wiped out most of my credit card debt + +**2010: $60,000** + +Was making about $100,000 at this point. Didn't save anything as I was partying but decent investments propelled my net worth up + +**2011: $100,000** + +More of the same + +**2012: $170,000** + +Started some side hustles that took off but really didn't save much still. + +**2013: $220,000** + +Continued side hustles and started saving some more money. + +**2014: $280,000** + +Combination of market returns, decent savings, and continued side hustles propelled me further up + +**2015: $350,000** + +Bought an apartment, discovered FI/RE. Race was on. Started maxing out 401k. + +**2016: $475,000** + +70% savings rate and market returns really helped, also real estate appreciation + +**2017: $650,000** + +More of the same, making over $200k by this point, and market returns helped, real estate appreciation + +**2018: $760,000** + +More of the same, market drop in equities and real estate + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +As of the beginning of 2019, my networth is split as such: + +**Pretax Accounts:** $150k + +**Post tax accounts:** $300k + +**Cash:** $50k + +**Real Estate:** Estimated value about $850k, with a $500k mortgage left. After broker fees and such, I reckon I have about **$300k** of real estate equity + +**Total Net Worth in 2019: $800k** + +Expected cash flows in Q1 2019: **$35k (bonus after tax), $25k (relocation sum post tax), $10k (tax refund) = $65k cash** + +&#x200B; + +Was hoping I would have a higher Net worth but the markets shitting into the end of the year did me no favors but it's since come back some. Currently, I am saving about $100k in pre and post tax accounts per year. + +I think the lesson to be gathered here is had I started FI/RE back when I first started working, I'd probably already be FI/RE'd by now as I started my career during the great recession. But like picking stocks, hindsight is 20/20 and it's all about moving forward! + +&#x200B; + +# Life Change in the works + +Now for the big life change. I am moving to Europe for my work! I've lived abroad before and have wanted to do it again. Plus I've always found that living abroad is a great way to get away from all the political nonsense I read on a daily basis. But that is just personal preferences. + +I am taking a job in Germany that will pay roughly **160k** euros on a salary+base level. Converted to dollars, this is actually a slight pay cut but the $ is strong so it's a moot comparison. The cost of living is so much lower there, that I will be living like the king I never could be in NYC. Taxes there are high but comparable to NYC. One of the main reasons for the move is so I can travel Europe and the surrounding areas on the regular with my 7 weeks of vacation a year. + +ALso, my GF has a remote working job making $130k or so she will join me in Germany and will claim the FEIE which shoudl boost her salary greatly. + +&#x200B; + +# FIRE Goal + +My FIRE goal is **$1m** or thereabouts. With $40k a year, I will have more than enough money to do the things I want to do, which is mainly travel the world full time and work as a dive instructor in the places I want to be in (this will pay roughly $1,000 - $2,500/mo and many jobs offer free room and board). Also, my blog generates about $500 a month at the moment, and hoping to get this to $1,000/mo by the time I FIRE. + +Plan is to rent my apartment in NYC for a 3-4 years and sell it before FIRE'ing and cashing out. I am hoping to reach $1m in the next 2-3 years which is about how long I will want to work in Europe anyway. Assuming the markets don't meaningfully decline, I think it should be doable. + +Anyway, it feels a bit surreal that FIRE is almost within grasp especially with all these changes happening. Thank you to everyone on this reddit that's been fighting the good fight and here's to a good 2019! + +&#x200B; +I'm admittedly not educated enough on this topic to form a valid opinion. Hoping someone might be able to shed some light. It just seems things that usually don't happen are happening down south and that usually means repercussions for Canada. +So I have just over 100 shares of BNS.TO dripping, and my avg price is 59 as I bought during the pandemic crash. It's sitting between 77-79 lately. + +Wondering if it would be best to move to another dividend paying stock with more room for growth, and take my gains? I feel like I've squeezed what I can from them. + +BNS.TO is about 25% of my portfolio, with the rest in VEQT and a little in some higher risk plays. So I'd like to keep this 25% in a lower risk divvy stock. I'm 30 by the way. + +Thoughts? Favorites? + +EDIT: Thanks to your helpful comments, I think I will be keeping the investment as is and leaving DRIP on for now. It feels right to keep the position, but I am on the fence about using the div returns for other investments. It's not a very large position, so I'm not super worried, but something to think about. +What's happening with Xebec? 53% down from the last month. The whole market is going down, but it seems like Xebec is going down more than the others. It's 10% down today already. Is something going on with it? +There is a fake BigVern Account that is trying to get people to invest in Cryptsy by PM'ing on Facebook. It seemed very suspicious to me. So I contacted Cryptsy and they confirmed it is a scam. Here is the transcript... + + +Sunday 8:58pm + +BigVern Vern: + +Hello + +We need the average users to hold, they are not doing that because we have so much of an exchange so the BTC is so spread out that it #1 is making our solid volume low , the real money is BTC. Not any other coin to the USD investors eyes, that's all they want to see. We are strictly watched by the better business bureau and in accordance with all United States laws, even if you are over seas you are still a user and operating within these laws here and you will be accommodated as such. + +let me know if your interested to be a project investor at 8% a month + + +Tuesday 10:01pm + +BigVern Vern: + +We have just changed this to 10%. + +We are closing the ledger in 12 hours. + +I wanted to invite you to our project investors program on Cryptsy. We are getting temporary investors for the next four months starting today actually for a 10% interest of whatever they guarantee to hold on a ledger. With project investors inc by linking your Cryptsy account to us, this provides us with backing to show USD investors that we have a secure 'solid volume' investor base. As we are trying to start the USD exchange in the next 5 months. If for some reason we cant start it within 4 months you can always continue with the project investors until we do have enough USD investors to start the exchange. Let me know if interested, and please dont tell very many people about it as we are only inviting trusted users / companies / and businesses of bitcoin. The latest we can take you is in the next 12 hours that is when our ledger closes, so the sooner the better! Sorry for late notice. + +Jason King: +Sorry man. We are a non profit. Can't invest + + +BigVern Vern: +ahh + +well I didnt know that part + +thanks much + +Jason King: +No problem. Good luck on funding the round. Cryptsy rocks. + +BigVern Vern: +Thanks!! + +Didnt want to throw your own personal account on it? That is fine too, minimum 1 btc. + +If so let me know, thanks again. + +::::It was that part that made me extremely suspicious::: + +3 hours ago + +BigVern Vern: +Hey there just wanted to give you a 2nd chance at this, i'm at the table now at the meeting to get this launched did you want in on the project? Stephanie Murphy is a project investor you might know her. Just need username / amount for now to put you on pending list. + + +____________________ + +I then contacted Stephanie. She had indeed invested. But I told her the cadence of the speech sounded very not-Vern like. + +I then contacted Cryptsy support. They said they are aware of this account and had asked for it to be taken down. + +Hope they didn't get to many people. + + +I have $25 to spend for groceries , I have water so I don't need anything else to drink, I am just wondering what besides tuna and pasta and peanut butter, bread I can eat to last as long as I can, unsure when I'll be getting more money so this is it for the week. Any meal ideas are especially welcome! +Will these Chinese EV companies go up due to Joe Biden winning the election. With Biden having Chinese relations, promoting climate change and environmental justice. +I've been trading for nearly 3 years, and quite honestly I stink. I've used every resource I've been able to find, every strategy I can find I've researched, I've tried to learn everything I can. I know that money makers corrupt the market and make it really challenging, but I know that there are some successful traders out there. What do they do? Buy long term hold dividend stocks? Short 'pump and dumps'? Day trade? Swing trade? +I've watched the market every day for over 2.5 years, and it's all still so confusing. Anyone have any wisdom? + +Edit:I've gotten a ton of helpful comments and messages, and I very much appreciate them all. I'll reply to each one, and go over all the information you guys gave me, but it'll take a bit! +I've noticed throughout my years in business school that many students struggle with making assumptions. I'm not sure if this is a prevalent issue (which is kinda why I'm here) but in my experience, the idea of making an assumption **based in reality** is almost staggering to people. + +TLDR AT THE BOTTOM... + +I took one class which involved creating pro formas with projections for a rolling 4 year period. While making these projections, we made assumptions based on sales (the 'business' was a computer company in the early years of consumer PCs). So we did things from buying a factory (and managing factory capacity) to R&D to marketing. All of these inputs were then put into a simulation program which 'judged' the efficacy of our inputs (advertising, capacity, production of different computers, sales tactics, # of employees, basically every aspect of a fully vertically integrated computer company). + +The assumptions that some of my group members wanted to make were, to be blunt, pretty cringey. I'll cut them slack on the first one since we had no historical data, but when we arrived in the 3rd-4th periods, people still had no idea what to do. Manufacturing had 'decent' data on sales growth and whatnot and she would just insist on raising capacity by an arbitrary number. That's essentially what it boiled down into. People wanting to make assumptions based on arbitrary bases. + +I suggested we do a 'test period' where we make calculated moves and see how that affects our bottom line, basically to feel out the simulation and to see how the inputs would affect the output. They were basically confused as to why we'd want to do that and basically showed no understanding of a computer program/its input-output style of logic. + +So all of this culminated into horrible pro forma projections. We'd base sales off of nothing and just assume that they'd increase by 20% every period, or some other arbitrary amount. No one had any idea how to create good and realistic assumptions. We'd talk about R&D and no one even thought about just looking up the prices of different R&D ventures (prices were listed per R&D upgrade) to see how much we'd spend based on what kinds of things we wanted. Instead, they'd rather 'budget' a $10M expense for it in one year, when we could literally just see what upgrades we wanted and how much that'd cost. AKA basing their assumptions off of nothing. + +I don't have experience working with professionals on this too much. I can tell teachers and whatnot who have done this for years often cover all the bases when they speak and they talk like they know how pro formas affect different line items and whatnot. They display extensive knowledge of how changes can affect different areas of financial statements. My current finance teacher with a PhD in math is a good example of this. He recognizes that if you increase sales over a period of time, you need the infrastructure/capacity to handle it, how the increases in the capacity affect the bottom line, the new employees required to handle the increased capacity (unless you replace labor with capital). Etc etc. It's hard to really explain but it's very noticeable when talking to him that he really understands whats going on with financial statements and how 1 change can affect more than 1 other line item. + +Contrast that to a student (and yes, my professor has obviously been doing it much longer) but it's alarming how little people can accomplish when they aren't given flat out what happens and how it affects everything. In the same vein, many students cannot properly do a sensitivity analysis, where they make assumptions about the future based on differing levels of activity and how it affects the bottom line. Many, without guidance, cannot simply assume that you'd want maybe 3 different environments, 1 with low demand, 1 with normal demand, 1 with extraordinary demand (obviously you could get much more in depth). Or that you'd want to obviously account for necessary increases in capacity if you want to be able to handle the increase in demand/sales. + +It's hard to articulate properly but what I've boiled it down to is an inability to apply logic. The same thing happens when you give someone a problem with no instructions. They have no idea where to begin or what to do. + +If there is anyone here, such as teachers or recruiters, who regularly come into contact with young students/professionals who are entering the work force, have you noticed this 'phenomenon'? I don't like to go off personal experience too much but it's almost universal at my school that students have trouble dealing with making assumptions and applying it to pro forma projections. + +Which is why I've been thinking about creating a 'training program' designed to help students go through the process of making assumptions about the future and seeing the outcome based on their assumptions. The point isn't to develop people's 'future telling' abilities but more nuanced than that--to help people apply logic and help them go through the process of understanding a scenario and what the goals are, what the ramifications are for certain decisions, etc. I know it's a vague concept but I do have a creative way of designing this training program in mind, but I want to know if it's something that would really be necessary or not. I would obviously program it myself and my programming background has actually helped me a lot in finance, since I look at a pro forma basically like an extensively programmed Excel spreadsheet/a general program that accepts inputs and spits out an output based on an underlying function. + +Any ideas or thoughts? + +Tl;dr: I've noticed students suck at making assumptions/applying logic so I've been thinking about creating a program to help 'train' students to think in the way a business executive would who is planning for the future. Being able to make proper assumptions is pivotal in the planning aspect of running a business and it's often why businesses are so successful--because they always have a plan for any circumstance/situation that might arise. And this plan is helpful because they know, today, if something happens in the future, what they must do, how it will affect their pro formas, and what it could mean for the company. And it works because it's realistic and accounts for the whole machine that a business is. They understand that it's an intricate machine with cogs that turn and, in turn, make other cogs spin. I've noticed a lot of students struggle with this process and I've been thinking about creating a program to help people think through the process. + +EDIT: Also, are there any similar programs you guys have seen and your opinions on them if you've tried them before. + +To bring this full circle, the whole point is to understand business better and to be able to make better business decisions using better data. So it'd all focus on financial statements and would be from the perspective of a business/from a business perspective, not so much other fields). + +And please excuse the hodge podge anecdote, it was simply to demonstrate the kind of thinking I've seen from other people and how it contributes to an overall lack of understanding. The simulation we used in that class is what I'd model my training program off of but with many improvements. So the one being trained would probably act from the perspective of a business owner/CFO. + +EDIT2: If anyone is still here thanks for the input I'm still reading everything that gets added. +[https://www.shortsight.com/dgazf-etn-short-sellers-down-2-billion/](https://www.shortsight.com/dgazf-etn-short-sellers-down-2-billion/) + +Guys, I just wanted to point this out to everyone, This is a stock that ran from $400 to 25,000+ with only 45% short interest. This happened in August of 2020. I remembered seeing this as it was happening and being dumbstruck at the potential. With so many new members becoming interested in this short squeeze I thought it would be a good Idea to share this with you to show you that the price predicted here any everywhere else isn't a meme. Literally any number is possible with over 100% shorted. + +Have a great day fellow apes. + +EDITAnother great link:[https://www.etftrends.com/leveraged-inverse-channel/dgazf-weaponized-indifference/](https://www.etftrends.com/leveraged-inverse-channel/dgazf-weaponized-indifference/) + +The squeeze happened when the volume dried up. +For context you can get 2.87% in Ubank for at call, even the best term deposit rates for periods under 3 years are well under that, I know people get discretionary rates above official rates but that's at best .2% or so. Who opens these accounts? I get that people out of laziness accept low interest rates, but who actively opens an account with such shit return? + + +*but there's a risk that interest rates will fall* - inflation could also rise and wipe out your real return below zero, it's not like there's very far your investment return can fall from ~2.5%. Interest rates could also go up. + + +*term deposits are usually for longer terms* - if you're happy locking your money away for several years that's starting to make stuff like index funds look smarter, plus the risks for TDs I mentioend above. + + +I literally cannot rationalise someone opening these products. +Hi, +just want to know if the landlord can bill tenant at the rate the electricity company was charging once solar panels are put on the roof of the rental property. +Thanks +Itā€™s not a new fact that the Feds have warned us of a hard landing. +So Iā€™m just curious, at what possible time interval will the recession be dangerous? + +At the moment, most in developed countries is doing fine. Considering how much theyā€™re spending. + +So how long do we have for preparation before a catastrophe hits? + +And WHEN is that catastrophe? + +Thanks for your time. +Im in Florida, USA. I'm constantly being told by cashiers that there is a change shortage and have signs posted asking for exact change and to use small bills. + +I have heard nothing in the news about this. What's the deal? +# Fact Checks + +*Real quick - links are posted in a comment below and are referenced by number throughout the post so that I don't get my post deleted by automod.* + +I came across this post which had information about the Senate Banking Committee bringing forth all of our favorite CEOs for a special episode of "Pretend like we're doing something". The post had screen capped an article (1) which further claimed: + +>Weā€™ve been closely monitoring the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees for the past 15 years. **We can think of no other time when the Committees issued a joint statement to announce they were hauling the most powerful men on Wall Street to testify** + +Well, that got my tits jacked. But before I let them get too jacked, I always have to fact check. So I scraped šŸ the Senate Banking Committees list of hearings dating back to 2008 to see if we could find any mention of the words CEO and \[insert financial institution\]. + +And sure enough, these guys were telling the truth. **The ONLY other time all these major banks were brought before the Senate Banking Committee (based off the data I scraped) was back in 2008 after the financial crisis (2).** + +# More Results + +For fun, here's some results based off of the below mentioned keywords. Oh and let me know if you want me to check any other institutions or titles. + +**Institutions**: Wells Fargo, Citadel, Black Rock, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and/or Goldman Sachs + +**Titles**: CEO, Chairman + +&#x200B; + +\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* + +**Oversight of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act: Examining Financial Institution Use of Funding Under the Capital Purchase Program. (2)** + +Date: Thursday, November 13, 2008 + +\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* + +**The Role of Regulation in Shaping Equity Market Structure and Electronic Trading (3)** + +Date: Tuesday, July 8, 2014 + +\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* + +**An Examination of Wells Fargoā€™s Unauthorized Accounts and the Regulatory Response (4)** + +Date: Tuesday, September 20, 2016 + +\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* + +**Wells Fargo: One Year Later (5)** + +Date: Tuesday, October 3, 2017 + +\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* + +&#x200B; + +# More Links (see comment section) + +Hearing on May 26th (6) + +Jurisdiction of Committee (7) + +&#x200B; + +# TL;DR The Senate Banking Committee hasn't called together all these big bank CEOs since 2008 šŸ¦§šŸ¦§šŸ¦§šŸ¦§šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€ +So, BTC just dropped quite a bit. Fuck, not even a bit. It crashed. Can't even say "when in doubt scroll out" kind of crash because you can still see the spike downwards. So, what are you guys going to do with this crash? I'm just planning to DCA and hope for the best. + +I'm also slightly concerned about this though. BTC has been in the red for most of the month (Nov 4th to Dec 4th) and it's just been a steady decrease. + +For the long-term holders, you guys *should* be fine. If this is long-term (which I highly doubt), then that'll be a problem. Short-term holders, I wish you guys the best of luck. And for those who said 100k EOY for BTC, please don't inhale too much copium /j. + +Good luck, and have a good day everyone. + +Edits: Grammar & word choices +I am going through a curious situation. + + + +On Saturday my door dash account was compromised which meant my debit card was also compromised. I changed ALL of my passwords and pins and requested new cards that could have been at risk (really only my debit card). I didn't have any credit cards loaded on there. I froze the accounts I could and have been monitoring the others closely (again these should have been fine). + + + +Today I got an alert that one of my frozen cards was used for Amazon Spain (not my home country and I didn't order anything) so I promptly took care of that. Again this card was not on the door dash account. I looked at a different credit card account and it had 2 pending charges that I definitely did not make, luckily are for $0 but still. I'm not sure what to do at this point. All my passwords are different/new, I've frozen what I can, requested new cards, etc. What am I missing? How did this happen to ALL of my cards, considering I don't use them and they aren't loaded into my accounts? + + + +I traveled to Oakland recently, but only ever used my debit card. I figured that might have been part of the situation but now that everything has been compromised, I'm skeptical. +**TLDR:** + +[F.U.D. Courtesy of The Fed](https://i.redd.it/lnne0752iwe81.gif) + +A LOT has changed since NOV ATHs.... + +We sit on the edge of a Bear Market in many assets, and have a new 8000lb Gorilla in the room, (a hawkish FED that um, day trades). + +Meanwhile, crypto has recently correlated with the VIX (-94% on Friday), so now the SPX and Crypto are joined at the hip: + +[ATHs in VIX Correlation](https://preview.redd.it/dyrvahorewe81.png?width=722&format=png&auto=webp&s=74c66bf65f603426cfd18723b4e169d7a6c91006) + +What's interesting here is how much the order book has dried up. The book is running very thin (that trend is ongoing), which means that prices can bounce a lot more then would otherwise be the case. It also means that prices will likely come under even more pressure (high volatility does not support price increases in the average asset), in the short term. + +Additionally, this set up may create some extra wild price swings that may whack the over leveraged margin & futures traders. How that will affect Exchange Operability remains to be seen-but let's just say it won't help them stay more stable. ***;)*** + +Here are some charts that help illustrate the problem, they look like Rorschach (ink blot) Tests: + +[S&P Book Depth Is Shrinking...see that flash crash point in DEC Week 1?](https://preview.redd.it/2322juyfewe81.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6deb7aa59f8cde5abc8249b93b7a51836556e5e) + +[Nasdaq Book Depth Is Shrinking...](https://preview.redd.it/18u5bnxhfwe81.png?width=950&format=png&auto=webp&s=c185674b9ffbcb996c7d8b516ff4e4a11e2b351c) + +[Bid\/Ask Spread is HUGE here.....](https://preview.redd.it/o6npfgawfwe81.png?width=929&format=png&auto=webp&s=aaad2c1a72e6971e9823ad5ea853510216f968f8) + +These are indications that volatility is likely to remain significantly elevated in the days ahead-atop a level that is already very high. ***This also suggests that the price declines we have seen in the cryptoverse correction are not over.*** What's more, January is usually one of the most chill months for volatility-so the fact that we are already running high in a normally chill month-is note worthy here: + +[January is supposed to be chill bro'......but ain't!](https://preview.redd.it/119pzsqogwe81.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e4c3e50abe9504ee6c7d6a7d1229d95a079cdae) + +Here is a chart of Volatility, and Volatility of Volatility, overlaid: + +[The VIX is Now Trending Up, Up, Up and away......](https://preview.redd.it/yzuib1g1qwe81.png?width=1150&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f83eee07ec3b8e4261700eb6921d814bf17c711) + +At present, volatility is retreating off its highs, but the trend is clear-and that trend is UP. + +Volatility is now bullish trend, where for all of 2021 it was not. That is a huge sea change. As long as the correlation to the VIX remains as titanium strong as it is at present, *this suggests that prices will remain under pressure for quite some time.* (No Virginia, Coin #1 will not be hitting $100k any time soon-as in this year dear.) + +Meanwhile the book is thinning to where it was at the December Flash crash.....ruh roh! + +**I am not a chicken little, and I am not given to fear. That said, the set up here is ripe for whaler whack-a-mole, Skynet's favorite game of chance.** + +*The takeaway?:* + +*Traders: be on the margin watch!* + +*HODLr's: buckle up for more roller coa$ter action.....* + +Good Luck! +It happened in all of 10-15 minutes it took me to take a piss at the hospital bathroom near where I parked. I still can't really fathom how it happened, but I may have left the door unlock as I rushed to relieve myself. + +But on to the pertinent stuff. I've just returned from the police station after reporting it stolen. I intend to call my insurance company and do likewise in the morning. Can't think of anything else that requires immediate attention. + +The car itself has no great material value. Its a 96 Honda civic sedan - with a busted rear bumper due to a rear ending accident to boot. But I've just lost my mode of transportation. Its utilitarian value is modest but non-trivial. I'm a part time caretaker (part time student) for an elderly relative and use it for shopping/errands and taking him to hospital appointments. Transportation and mobility will be inconvenienced, but I think it will be manageable. At the very least, the impact wouldn't be as great as when I had a 9-5 a few years ago that required daily commuting. + +My current financial situation is not great. my caretaker job pays ~$600 a month about which rough half is used to pay regular bills. I live frugally, but every 6 months, school fees/expenses consistently eats up $6,000+ of my reserves from when I had more gainful employment. I have ~$12,000 of liquid funds on hand with an additional ~$5000 available if I absolutely need to break a CD. + +Even tough I have yet to finish, I've been contemplating putting school on hold and returning to work full time. This new situations throws my plans and goals into complete disarray as I'm no longer sure how I should prioritize given the new burdens/responsibilities/inconveniences I must now contend with. + +Any insights? What bugs me the most is the questions I haven't yet thought to ask. What have I missed? + +any help would be appreciated. +I need to get some much needed sleep now. + +update: Holy Cow! Just got a call that they found my car. I'm unable to meet the officer with my vehicle in 20 minutes. So I'll have to recover it from the tow yard. will keep you all updated as things progress. +As per title. Although a bit of background first: + +I'm in my mid-twenty, i have worked in sales for 5 years as a sole trader make a cut of what I sold and I loved that, so I always saw that working structure as the best for me. + +I am now working in professional services (to keep it vague). 4 months into my new job and I am done. Don't get me wrong, I think most people my age would be very happy to be where I am (not bragging but also don't wanna be ungrateful). However, I don't like having a boss, I don't like being told what to do and I don't want to have a base salary as I don't feel pushed to do my best. + +I find working with others quite dull as I have my own rhythm and I like to do things my way. + +During the pandemic, i started studying cryptocurrencies and stocks and got in love with it. I invested a couple of K that i had saved for an eventual holiday and started following everything closely. At the same time, i started reading about trading strategies and TA. + +I just want to make the switch, focus all my energy and attention on this (day trading). I am just looking for your success stories to inspire me and provide me with some sort of a roadmap to understand what steps other successful traders have taken before switching to trading full time. + +Thank you to anyone who will take the time to reply. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; +I'll be graduating high school next year and I was wondering if majoring in data science or economics and finance would be more beneficial to algo-trading +Just curious how everyone does it. Obviously few if any will share their "secret sauce", but many, including myself may share "how the sausage is made". Here is the process that works for me. + +1. Define the scope of data to analyze as a starting point: For me it's easiest to ask the general question "how does the market move". Forget about "hypothesis" or "bets". At this point, the idea is to define a dataset that you can analyze. These can come in lots of different flavors. My favorite is to break down a binary sequence of events over time in the form of basic outcome 1 vs. basic outcome 2. So 5 up vs. 5 down, 10 up vs. 10 down. 3 up vs. 7 down, etc. I use lists for everything and I can run 100s of these concurrently, so at this point the exact values don't matter as much as the shapes. I will test slightly positive skew, slightly negative skew, very positive, very negative, etc. I can do this across 100 + binary events like this all using the same variables in my lists. I have two lists, one that handicaps for shorts and one that handicaps for longs. The idea is to create a realistic house edge that I am working against, but I won't get into the details of this too much because that's a whole can of worms. +2. Sequence the data in such a way that you can snapshot the state of the market prior to the theoretical entry. This is important to get right. I can't stress how many false positives can come up if you get this part wrong. Anything you can think of collect here. Volume, sure, averages of things, why not. Sequence the data in such a way so that these snapshot variables make it to the row that holds the outcome. You can likely see where I am going with this... +3. Make the dataset realistic: Always get bid / ask data. Stay away from Last, or HLOC unless just for an added data point. Trying to handicap datasets and find edges that muddy the bid / ask will often end with you collecting the spread in your analysis by accident. Add logic to make sure every theoretical entry moves at least 1 tick beyond the entry /exit prices and know your handicap with potential slippage, market orders vs. limit orders, etc. And get the most granular time series possible so you can measure the delta between events. I can't tell you how many beautiful alpha signals I have found that only exist in the < 3 ms time range. Point being, you need to throw out all this fools gold on the front end as this will only crush your soul later. +4. Go get the raw data: I wrote some extractions programs that I use with RAPI and NinjaTrader (All C# so it can technically work across more platforms than this). I just write everything out to text files or CSV files and from here we can analyze everything. +5. Keep it stupid simple: This is where I differ from a lot people in this field. I do my analysis like a caveman in excel using simple countifs, sumifs and averageifs. Here is the general idea: I take a data slice, lets say 5 ticks up vs. 5 ticks down in the ES. I have collected 100,000 rows of data where every outcome will be the market moved up 5 or down 5. Simple and binary, the way idiots like me can comprehend it. Now layer in all the "other stuff" I collected in the analysis. This might be the volume at entry, what the prior outcome was, what the last 5 outcomes were, what the current price is relative to this average or that average etc. For each of these I just add a new column with a simple binary outcome True or False. I might end up with 10 to 20 different columns each with True / False like this. +6. How to interpret the data: Finally I run my simple analysis. I create a baseline of Count of Outcome 1, Count of Outcome 2, and then I compare this to each column when true, or when false one by one. The ones that do well I keep, the ones that do very bad I also keep. The ones with no real delta I throw out. +7. How to rinse and repeat and scale: Remember when I said I use lists so I can do this for 100s of different shapes to test every flavor of positive / negative skew. Once I manually find a few good signals that split the data more than lets say 53%/ 47%, I add this to an aggregate program that can scale up and calculate this for me automatically but with much more data and shapes running at once. So I might be testing every type of Skew in a matrix with every tick value from 3 to 20 and all testing one or two variable tweaks that showed promise when I did my initial manual countif / sumif type analysis. + +So that's it for a high level overview for me. You will find lots of really great statistical splits over just about any time frame, but not all of these will hold. The hard part is understanding and interpreting the results and from here taking all of these micro edges and building your strategy to turn on this or turn off that when xyz happens. So that's about it. Now it's your turn! +So I posted this already on r/financialindependence (sorry for those of you who already saw it) but I didn't realize that this second sub existed and I think I'd like to know the answers from here as well. Ultimately my FIRE goal is to retire while making \~300k investment income/yr after accounting for inflation protection on my savings and also to have paid off my mortgage by then so my disposable income will theoretically be higher than it is right now and I'll actually be able to step up my lifestyle in retirement. + +But anyway, me and my wife are approaching 30 and about to reach our financial independence goal but are unsure of the next steps. So now I'm curious to hear from some of the rest of you that have done so this early in life. To be honest while I'm sure about the financial independence part I'm not 100% sure about the whole retire early portion. I'll be retiring at or above my current means which I'm happy about and I've always wanted to take a year off and travel. This will probably be the first thing I do but when I get back I'm not really sure. + +I have a number of hobbies that I mostly haven't done in years and a few that I want to pick up but I'm afraid I'm going to get bored or feel unfulfilled. Alternatively if I stay working for my current company which I don't want to leave I probably won't get the year off and won't get the freedom I want with such a demanding job. + +So for those of you who have reached it in their 30s or so, what has it been like? Do you still work even though you know you can quit? Or if you retired are you satisfied with your day to day life or do you feel at all bored or unfulfilled? Do you still do freelance work or anything? + +Also is there anything else you think that I should know? + +Thanks for any advice you can give! +Title tells 80% of the story, so feel free to ignore the remainder of the post if you're busy/uninterested but really want to share. + +Basically about to make my first investment, and after months of active research (and years of passively dreaming of the day when I had money to invest and thinking about what grown-up me would buy), I'm about to drop five-figures on XEQT. Basically, my investment thesis heavily relies on the efficient market hypothesis. While I do not believe it is strictly true, I believe it is true enough to guide decision making, particularly for a dummy like me who is busy 14-16 hours a day and rarely even opens his computer (i.e. I do not have the ability or time to evaluate business). Basically, I believe there is no chance (beyond regular chance variation) that I can outperform other investors with far greater skills and resources than me, which means I have no chance of beating the broad stock market. My goal is to hold it for 30 years and maintain and grow my wealth for retirement or support my kids when they start their own lives. I do plan to gradually buy more bonds as I get older but my wife's retirement accounts are already really bond heavy (between 30-40%) so I think it's best to bring the bond/stock ratio down considerably by investing in all-stocks for the next few years. + +So, now I'm trying to think of the things I haven't though about; any reasons not to buy these products? +Over 60% of my portfolio is XEQT. Iā€™ve invested for 4 months and I have 6k invested in XEQT... however, for 6k invested I have only earned 15 dollars on this ETF. Is this normal- is it just the markets? Sorry, Iā€™m new and want to be sure that this is normal and if this ETF is a good choice. +I have always been confused with dividends and dividend yield. For example, TD stock says dividend yield - 5.1% right now +Does that mean if i put $10,000 in TD stock then i get 5% of the dividend for that amount, which is $500 +And is it annual? +Hey peeps I'm just excited because my buddy and I finally changed the alternator in my car! It's been a few weeks since it went out and it has been a monumental stress in my life. My wife is about to have our daughter in a week and we were car less. Not feasible. Not a situation that can be. My genius wife who is more of a car buff than me remembered that the local junkyard sells parts for cheap so we got it for $40! I have no tools or experience fixing cars but my good friend does and he took the time out of his busy life to come help me today and it works! Feels good man. Anyway sorry for the book but this is a huge win for me. Keep your heads up folks. Things get better with good friends and a lot of effort. (and possibly a little luck.) + +TLDR - Alternator went out in my car. Did the work myself and saved $$$ +# United States + +* **Durable Goods Orders** report was positive, up 0.8% + * Largely due to defense orders + * Transport orders fell + * Capital goods orders -machinery and whatnot- fell for the second straight month +* The **GDP** **report** comes out *today* at *8:30* \- growth is expected at 3.5% +* The Kansas City Fed is showing **business** **spending** falling fast +* Americans collecting **unemployment** hit its lowest level in decades + +# Other + +* **Alphabet** fell about 5% after the company released revenue figures that were slightly below analystsā€™ estimates. +* **Amazon** reported record quarterly profits of about $2.9bn. + * But its shares fell 9% in after-hours trading after the company warned that sales during the coming Christmas period might be lower than expected. +* The price of **Copper**, **Aluminum**, and **Nickel** has fallen fast, bringing down the share price of mining firms - you can thank the rise of the USD for that +* Trade and manufacturing confidence is crumbling in **Germany**, construction sentiment looks bright though +* **South** **Korean** stocks continued their bearish descent +* Argentinaā€™s consumer sentiment has been crushed + * The executive board of the IMF meets in Washington, DC today to approve Argentinaā€™s revised $57bn credit lineā€”the largest in the fundā€™s history. +* **Mexicoā€™s** retail sales beat expectations (Actual: 3.9% | Expected: 3.7%) +* Shares of **homebuilders** may have finally bottomed out - look at Bloombergā€™s American Homebuilder Index + +# China + +* Nothing new here as the **yuan** continues to fall, I feel like I write this everyday +* Inflows into Chinese **bonds** are slowing dramatically +My wife and I both earn around Ā£51000 a year before tax and receive Ā£1650 child care for two kids. Is it worth upping our pension contributions to take us under the 50K threshold? We're not sure if that money will be safer in our pension or if its easier just to pay the tax. I'd prefer to avoid doing a tax return. + +I'm also a bit unsure on whether both of us would have to pay the tax, as we both earn above the 50K threshold. If the person who earns the most (my wife, by Ā£1) paid the tax, is that us settled? Or would I have to pay too? The UK gov website example states "the person with the highest wage" pays the tax but there isn't an example to cover our situation. + +Cheers +Look everyone's portfolio is likely looking red, so here's what you need to do: Likely doing nothing for now is the right move. Don't sell at a loss. Work more hours so you have more money to buy solid, economy defining stocks at a fraction of their price they once were and build your retirement portfolio. (PYPL for example, way oversold with a 26 RSI). Downward pressure (bear market) is not forever and doesn't last as long as upward momentum (bull market). In the end, stocks of financially healthy companies will continue to go up. They always have and will. + +As long as you're patient and investing in solid companies with healthy balance sheets poised for future growth (even if growth slows in 2022), you'll be fine. + +The market is forward looking. Once it gets a grip on where the Fed wants to take rates (likely around 2% by year-end with 50bps the first 2 rate hikes and 25bps thereafter). They will then continue to monitor if inflation is going down from CPI data before hiking more. + +Inflation will go down. Odds are we are here at the peak of inflation currently as we sit. Used and new car prices are not as expensive as they once were and are starting to come down. In my opinion I feel the economy will slow down substantially simply as a result of high gas and food prices re-routing what people can or can't spend their money on. + +Covid for the majority of the world except China has pretty much subsided. People will go out and spend money, that's a given. However, they will be limited on how much they can go out and spend due to the increase in food and gas. Once consumer spending decreases, inflation will also decrease. + +Prices of goods only go up if people are willing to pay them. Once people stop paying sky high prices for assets and commodities, prices will come back down. I think this will happen relatively soon. + +A simple look at the stock market is a prime example. The market is forward looking like I said. People are not willing to pay high multiples of companies due to slower growth in the future. Any slowdown in future growth in a company's quarterly earnings will drive the stock price down. Why? People don't want to pay high prices for a company that's not growing as fast, and nor should they. + +The Fed technically hasn't even done anything beside 'threaten' to raise rates so far. But a hawkish Fed (an aggressive rate hike minded Fed), is scary to the market. If they hike rates too aggressively and slow down the economy too much, then we'll have a recession (albeit a short one in my opinion, but inflation would cease to exist pretty much instantly going this route). + +So far all we have endured is a 25bps hike. With the current Fed rate at 0.25%. Likely to go up to 0.75% on Tuesday, May 3rd. But if they say they want to tighten rates more aggressively than 50bps, the market will naturally have a huge negative reaction because a future priced market does not like slow growth. However this route will end inflation quicker, so the market can go back to normal once the dust settles. + +Again, all the Fed has done so far is mostly talk. They haven't really taken much action yet as far as tightening goes. I'd say the market is currently pricing in Fed rates of around 3% which is taking us well into 2023. Which means by 2023 the market will start pricing in growth for 2024. This is when I think the growth will resume its bullish trajectory. Until then we are likely to remain volatile. + +TLDR: Long story short, be patient. Do not stress over what you cannot control. Let the Fed do their job and you do yours. Earn money. Control the budget and buy the dip if you have the means to do so. Real wealth is built during markets like this. Once the bull market resumes, make sure you are on the train. +Hey reddit I just you know I want to get into rental properties and I donā€™t know where to start Iā€™m 22 and have about 35k saved up but I donā€™t know where to begin I just want some advice from the pros give me anything you got. +So attempting to buy my first investment property, it turns out lenders consider investment condos too risky for loans. Luckily the condo is only $55k so I can pay all cash. But I have an Amex Platinum and a Chase Reserve, neither of which has a spending limit. So can I pay with credit cards and pay them off right away? +Does anyone from the US incest internationally? If so where, and why? Cash flow or appreciation? + +How difficult is it to get a property manager, tenants, etc? Thanks! +It's been a year so itā€™s time for an update post as FIRE continues to get closer. Iā€™ve met my initial goal net worth goal (originally $2m, currently at $2.47m). Now we just need to wait 3 more years until weā€™re retirement eligible from the military. + +You can read previous annual updates here by clicking this [link and then continuing to follow the previous links.](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/hu77r8/military_couple_4_years_from_fire_goal_update/) Iā€™ve been working towards FIRE for about 15 years and have been making progress updates on reddit for 5 years. + +For this year update, I shifted towards a focus on retirement projections instead of just saving. This really put a focus on trying to figure out what we want in retirement to answer the question as to whether all this planning will work out. The goal weā€™ve had is simple: maintain the same quality of life weā€™ve been enjoying, without having to go to work. The methodology I used was to look at our 2020 spending (slightly off due to COVID-19), then, consider whether each of our current expenses would remain in retirement, and if so, whether it would go up or down. I wanted to be conservative with my estimates, so we estimated on the high side if there was any doubt. + +**Current Ages:** + +* Me: 40yrs +* Wife: 38yrs +* Kid 1: 8yrs +* Kid 2: 5yrs + +**Income:** + +* Me: $143k +* Wife: $138k +* Rental Income: $30k (net) No major changes to our 2 rental houses. Most of this income goes directly back to principal payments on the mortgage. After management fees they only cashflow a couple hundred bucks each month. +* Dividends: $5.6k + +**Savings:** We max out our tax advantaged savings accounts (TSP and Roth IRAs). Weā€™re still eligible for Roth IRAs due to $58k our income being non-taxable housing/subsistence allowances and by maxing our traditional ($39k) TSP contributions and taking the standard deduction. Weā€™re adding approx $128k/yr to various savings/retirement accounts. Pretty much all saving stops after we FIRE. + +**Current balances:** + +* TSPs (govā€™t 401k): $1.078m +* Roth IRAs: $365k +* Taxable brokerage account: $383k +* Emergency fund/Cash on hand: $40k +* Coverdell Education Savings Accounts: $56k + +**Life insurance:** No changes. + +**Expenses:** [Annual 2020 Expense breakdown.](https://i.imgur.com/kuNNROq.jpg) + +* Fixed expenses: $8,341.61/mo (This is lower than last year since I excluded mortgage expenses for our rental properties). +* Fixed savings: $10,661.60/mo + +[**Historical Actual Net Worth and Debt:**](https://i.imgur.com/els7ozw.jpg) + +**Current Net Worth: $2.47m** + +* 2012: +$130k +* 2013: +$194k +* 2014: +$110k +* 2015: +$39k +* 2016: +$177k +* 2017: +$247k +* 2018: +$102k +* 2019: +$367k +* 2020: +$418k +* 2021: +$284k (year to date) + +**Current Total Debt: $397k** + +* Rental House 1: 31k @ 3.25% +* Rental House 2: 355k @ 3% +* Car 1: 14k @ 2.75% +* Car 2: 27k @ 1.9% (A storm damaged our second car so we decided to pick up a new one as a replacement). Car 1 purchase price was \~$60k, Car 2 purchase price was \~$50k + +**Retirement plan:** + +Military pensions are equal to 2.5% \* yrs of service \* high 3 base pay avg. So, 20 years = 50% of your base pay. Based on our expected rank at retirement, this would be $56.8k each. That is in todayā€™s money and since this is tied to inflation itā€™d be slightly higher and would continue to grow each year in retirement since increases are based on the employment cost index and then in retirement it's tied to the CPI. + +**Assumptions:** + +* 3.25% safe withdrawal rate. Weā€™d draw primarily from our taxable account first, then Roth IRA principle, and also set up a 72(t) distribution from our TSP funds which would allow us to pull in $30-35k/yr based on the current federal mid-term rate prior to age 59.5 +* My Military Retirement: $56,810.04 +* Spouse Military Retirement: $56,810.04 +* Retirement/Taxable Account Distributions: $69,958.24 + +Retirement income (pre-tax): $183,578.32/yr. I estimate weā€™d pay $31k in taxes (most places weā€™re looking at donā€™t tax military retirement income). + +**Retirement income (post-tax): $152,370.01/yr** + +We plan to sell both rental houses prior to retirement and net $534k in equity after fees/commissions. Iā€™m using valuations from last year, not the inflated COVID-19 prices which may or may not last. The idea here was that we kept these houses a hedge against a housing bubble.. which seems to be working perfectly. + +**Retirement house purchase scenario:** + +* Price: $700k +* Equity rolled over from rental houses: $535K +* Cash out: $150k +* Mortgage: $315k @ 3%, 30 yr (no hurry to pay this off if the rates are going to be super low) +* Payment w/taxes and insurance: $2,553.50 + +The biggest unknown we have is still not knowing where we want to buy a house and live. Weā€™ve narrowed it down to a handful of states and have a house budget target of $400-700k. I overhauled my excel spreadsheet to easily make retirement projection calculations, so I can plug in house purchase prices, interest rates, taxes, insurance, etc., how much cash out I want. I also added projections based on my months to retirement for future contributions to our financial accounts. + +I've also considered using the VA loan benefit and not put anything down if rates stay super low and just invest all that rental house equity. One important consideration is getting the loan figured out prior to retirement. It seems mortgage lenders arenā€™t as interested in lending money if you arenā€™t working. My spouse will be working one year more than me and we should qualify on just that income. Worst case scenario we just buy a house outright and donā€™t get a mortgage. + +**Current Expenses (that carry over into retirement):** + +|Categories|Sum of Annual Cost|Sum of Monthly Cost| +|:-|:-|:-| +|ATM/Cash Withdrawals|$2,411.20|$200.93| +|Automotive|$7,795.20|$649.60| +|Bills & Utilities|$8,931.00|$744.25| +|Entertainment|$191.88|$15.99| +|Food and Drink|$4,800.00|$400.00| +|Gas|$1,900|$158.33| +|Groceries|$12,000|$1,000.00| +|Health & Wellness|$360.00|$30.00| +|Home Maintenance|$2,630.00|$219.17| +|Insurance|$1,909.72|$159.14| +|Shopping|$7,000.00|$583.33| +|**Grand Total**|**$49,929.00**|**$4,160.75**| + +**Additional Retirement Expenses:** + +|Categories|Sum of Annual Cost|Sum of Monthly Cost| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Travel|$24,000.00|$2,000.00| +|Retirement House|$30,642.02|$2,553.50| +|Gifts|$6,000.00|$500.00| +|Healthcare|$6,000.00|$500.00| +|Entertainment|$6,000.00|$500.00| +|Food & Drink|$3,600.00|$300.00| +|Home Maintenance|$12,000.00|$1,000.00| +|**Grand Total**|**$88,242.02**|**$7,353.50**| + +Overall thatā€™s $152,370.01 income and $138,171.02 expenses for a cushion of an extra $1,183.25/mo. I'm pretty comfortable with that knowing my estimates are pretty conservative. + +**Common questions:** + +* **What about the kidā€™s college expenses?** Each of us transferred our GI Bill benefits to the kids. That pays for the highest in-state public university tuition cost plus a housing allowance and books/fees stipend. We'll continue funding the Coverdell education savings accounts for the next 3 years and then just let that money grow until they go to school. They should be able to easily afford college without needing to take on any student loans. Any excess funds from the Coverdell ESAs can be converted to 529 and transferred to a cousin. +* **Are you taking into account social security?** Weā€™ll both start getting social security which would be an extra $2k month in todayā€™s dollars or $6.6k a month in future inflated dollars. After doing the math, weā€™ll probably just take the money as soon as we can (age 62) even if we donā€™t need it since the break even point isnā€™t until our late 70s if we delay payments. +* **Why donā€™t you snag a high paying contractor job after you retire from the military and make bank for a few years?** Yes, we both have extremely marketable and in demand skills and could land high paying jobs post military. Weā€™d rather spend our time with the kids/extended family though. We just donā€™t need that money. If asked, Iā€™ll just tell people that Iā€™m a high net worth financial advisor (true except the only client is myself). +* **Why not stick around in the military a few more years?** The military pension goes off your high 3 years of earnings and adds 2.5% per year of service. Weā€™re planning to leave at 20 years (50%). Yes, we could get promoted again and then stick around 3 more years to increase that base pay/high 3 calculation. Sticking around 1 extra year would mean a 52.5% pension instead of 50% which would be an extra $300/mo. At the end of the day, it all comes down to whether or not we need that extra income vs the stress of being in the military (potential deployments/separation/long hours/etc). The bottom line is the military doesnā€™t define who we are and there are others capable of doing our jobs when we walk away. +* **What will you do to stay busy?** Kids, volunteer work, travel, extra curricular activities, go to the gym because we want to, start a garden/chickens/apiary, who knows. I do plan to spend some time at a coffee shop telling unsolicited war stories to young people at least one day a month. +* **Why is your healthcare budget so low?** As a military retiree, weā€™re eligible for Tricare Select or Tricare Prime. This is the same health coverage we currently have, but when we retire we have to pay about $600/yr for enrollment fees and minimal co payments ($20-$30 for a visit) with a catastrophic cap of $3k or $3.5k. This includes a good prescription drug benefit, but no dental/vision coverage. When we become eligible for medicare you automatically get swapped to medicare and Tricare For Life which is basically Tricare covering the 20% that medicare does not plus your same existing prescription drug coverage. Basically we'll have no health care costs after age 65. [https://tricare.mil/-/media/Files/TRICARE/Publications/Misc/Costs\_Sheet\_2021.pdf](https://tricare.mil/-/media/Files/TRICARE/Publications/Misc/Costs_Sheet_2021.pdf) + +tl;dr Net worth is now $2.47m. Plan is to retire in 3 years at the age of 43 with military pensions worth $113k/yr while using a 3.5% SWR to generate an additional $70k for a combined total of $183k/yr retirement income. +Let me start by saying that I know this is such a non-issue, especially in todayā€™s climate but Iā€™m having a bit of existential crisis, maybe itā€™s the lockdown. + +I have just finished my degree at 29. I have been with my partner a few years and we would like to start a family, not right away, but I feel my clock is ticking, especially if want to give my child a sibling. + +I have a job in the sector but I will need to work for a few years to get to where I want to be, and I chose it due to the high earning potential. But that means taking maternity leave when I hardly know what I am even doing yet, which will undoubtedly set me back in my career, before I have really even started. I also wonā€™t reach the high salary that I spent the past years studying for. + +So then Iā€™m thinking wait a few years and get more set up in my career, but then Iā€™m running the risk of fertility issues. + +I donā€™t know, I just wanted to get this off my chest, my friends have been working for years so they donā€™t understand. I was wondering if any women (or men) have found themselves in similar situations? Is anyone else feeling the pressure to settle down before they are ready? Can anyone shed a light on what its like returing to work after maternity leave. + +\*\*Edit: Thnak you everyone for the replies, its comforting to know that I am not the only one in this situation. As a few commenters noted its best to decide whats most important in life, career or family. I do want a family more so I will be discussing this with my parnter. Another user also said that I will have another 30 years to build on my career, this also put things into perspective for me. + +Thank you all again, you have honestly made me feel better! +Iā€™m not trying to be another negative post on here, but I would be curious to know what examples there are of crypto being an improvement to anything currently that we use in the real world? + +A huge pillar and reason I started investing around a year ago and at major pace was it changing the way we bank/finance. We now see how broken thatā€™s beenā€¦ + +Seems like one land mine after the next. + +Itā€™s been said over and over, crypto seems to only solve crypto problems. + +Would love to hear your thoughts. +Hello, to give some backstory to how I was initially hacked here is a post I made that somehow ended up being top post on this sub: [https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/8pyha5/my\_binance\_account\_with\_50k\_has\_been\_hacked/](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/8pyha5/my_binance_account_with_50k_has_been_hacked/) + +Since this happened I have had a very long month of speaking with Microsoft support everyday to try and retrieve my hacked email and they finally came to a conclusion. They told me to submit X information and I did, after waiting a month for a response they have said they fully acknowledge I am the account owner but with any Hotmail account that has had fraudulent activity on it what they do is indefinitely suspend the account and cannot give me access back to it. In turn I have lost a lot more then this Binance account, but almost my whole career unfortunately. But sticking to the topic of Binance they will not allow me to regain access unless I send the support ticket through the email associated with the account which is literally impossible as it has been suspended forever and no one can access it. I have the phone number, the google authenticator, the 2 step verification photos on the account are me, and prior to being locked out of the account I was instructed by a member of the Binance team named Jager to submit a photo of myself with my passport and a note that says "Please change my email to Be\*\*\*\*\*@gmail.com" which I did. So I have undeniable proof that I am the owner of this Binance account but they need the ticket to be submitted from the email associated with the account and Microsoft will not give anyone access to the email and has suspended it forever making this impossible. I am in the process of suing my phone provider Rogers which caused this whole problem in the first place and they have claimed full responsibility for what has happened. We are moving forward with the case very soon, so at least there is still some hope. + +What to take from this: Don't use Hotmail +**Edit 1:** Apparently I had missed [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oz9dg5/number_of_shares_retail_own_calculated_by/) and related posts indicating the number of Swedish Apes was some 40 thousand, and the German sub is 13 thousand. Ok thats a facepalm for sure. Adjust all estimate numbers upwards by a minimum of 4 times to maintain the proportionality. I will keep the numbers originally written as is however. The main point of the 1st and 2nd sections was to establish a minimum viable estimate because I think some of the numbers coming out surveyā€™s just donā€™t work. Even if numbers are increeased 10 times or 20 times, the survey numbers I am critiquing still donā€™t work in global proportions. + +**Edit 2**: So on top of accidentally massively undercounting our dear Europoors because I hadnā€™t seen the Swedish data it appears we have a complete mess in using Bloomberg data which I didnā€™t know about. Apparently Bloomberg reports solely on the basis of Institutional data and doesnā€™t show individual retail. Yet the institutions of banks, brokers, hedge funds, pensions, retirements etc. are composed of enormous numbers of retail investors directly or indirectly. How this would be reported, and if it is even possible for retail to be separated out of institutions I donā€™t know or understand. Another really important comment I have seen is that international investors (if theyā€™re reported at all) could be getting reported as Americans if the end point of their trade is an American institution such as Bank of New York Mellon as many international brokers operate partnerships for access to American markets through American institutions. + +This could be a major factor confounding the count of Europeans and others. + +The postā€™s first and second sections will remain unaltered below as I donā€™t know what or how to correct. The numbers are a mess to try and work with, informational assymetry is real. Just remember that even with fucked up undercountings of minimum estimates we still own the float by a lot. + +# TL;DR + +1. Canada and Germany do not own the float +2. America owns the float. +3. If USA survey data is reasonably accurate then there are approximately **5,396,522 GME Shareholders worldwide.** 4,811,000 Americans, 29,141 Canadians, and 6475 Germans. +4. Survey data from the USA, Canada and Germany when filtered through Bloomberg data gives an estimated total of between **106,666,617 and 144,442,271** synthetic shares in existence owned by GME holders, that we know of. **This is in addition to the 76,815,131 legitimate shares available**. +5. This range of 106-144 million synthetics aligns well with the 114 million synthetic shares found in the Brazilian Puts, the 226% Short Interest reported in January, and the 130 million + shares that have Failed To Deliver since 2^(nd) January 2019. +6. **The DTCC has an Obligations Warehouse that holds ALL the Fails, including those which are never reported in the CNS System to the SEC and thus to retail.** Something fuckey is going on there, and GME FTD's might dramatically exceed the reported cumulative total of **227,769,225** since 2008. If so, then fuck it, ignore points 1-5 because everybody owns the float...even Canada. + +[TLDR of TLDR: Hedgies R Fuk](https://preview.redd.it/um8omp0k5og71.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=162730f08909d048d354bc14029391fbe11c4b0f) + +# 3 Parts + +1. How many shareholders are there? I argue against the inflated numbers from the Canada and German surveys +2. How many shares are there? Using the USA survey I filter average shares per holder through bloomberg data to obtain a range, and compare this to other metrics +3. WTF is the Obligations Warehouse?! + +# 1. Exaggerating Shareholder Estimates + +So I have seen some surveyā€™s being put out which I find interesting on the share ownership of American, Canadian and German apes which I would like to add to and comment on before moving onto what I think are more accurate calculations of the synthetic position claimed by actual shareholders, and lastly the Obligations Warehouse and all it's fuckery. + +The most recent survey comes from u/Broad_Price of Canadian ownership ["Beavers own the Boat"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p1xl35/beavers_own_the_boat_a_gme_ownership_survey_for/). This survey further combines data from another Canadian survey by u/dlegal, and I will use the combined figures given by both dlegal and Broad Price in the laterā€™s post. From a combined survey of 1502 respondents, of whom 8.92% owned GME, an estimated Canadian shareholding population of 1,325,214 was produced by applying this 8.92% to a marriage and couples adjusted adult population of 14,854,260 Canadians.Ā This doesn't sound too unreasonable thus far. + +However when we then compare this maximal estimate of 1,325,214 Canadian apes to Bloomberg data provided courtesy of u/Ravada [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p1xw33/10082021_gme_bloomberg_terminal_information/) and u/Hopai79 [there](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/oxinpg/tuesday_august_2021_gme_bloomberg_terminal/), we see that Canadian ownership of GME represents only 0.54% of total ownership. If we reversed Canadian figures to work out the ownership by taking 1,325,214 and dividing by 0.54% or 0.0054 we would find a total ownership of 245,410,000 GME shareholders worldwide. Not shares, but shareholders. + +[10th August 2021 Bloomberg data from u\/Ravada](https://preview.redd.it/lciped2w8og71.png?width=1917&format=png&auto=webp&s=57e1ab2cc16d036b04278275ded37b097e3607e4) + +Likewise when we apply the same process to the [German survey data](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oyjjr5/google_survey_for_germany_germany_owns_the_boat/) supplied by u/Holzbrett where of 33,177,600 marriage and couple adjusted adult GermansĀ Ā we can see very large resultant estimates of shareholders. From the 1002 respondents, 5.09% held GME, which when Holzbrett applied to the 33,177,600 eligible Germans produces 1,688,739 German GME shareholders.Ā  + +To apply the Bloomberg data wherein Germany represents only 0.12% of total ownership we can immediately see our first problem in that 1,688,739 Germans owners is larger than the 1,325,214 Canadians, despite Bloomberg stating Canadians own almost 5 times more GME at 0.54% versus 0.12%. When we reverse the German figures to obtain an estimate of total shareholders by taking 1,688,739 and dividing by 0.12% or 0.0012 we get a result of 1,407,282,200 shareholders. Thatā€™s 1.4 Billion shareholders.Ā That's more people than China or India, and more than 4 times the population of the USA. + +[That's too many people](https://preview.redd.it/7v6g6u6e7og71.png?width=480&format=png&auto=webp&s=d5bcd2c1cfda808edabdba3684b33e9a30acfb2d) + +Not to shit all over these surveys because theyā€™re good and valuable as I will get into, but those numbers just donā€™t seem credible to me. I would further suggest that besides the standard problems and difficulties of extrapolating from small sample sizes, there is the distortion that comes from the differences in response rates among vested parties (shareholders) and the uninterested (everybody else) a fact which commonly distorts survey results on sensitive or polarised topics. + +Now far and away the largest national ownership reported by Bloomberg is naturally enough the USA at 89.15%. When we adjust our estimates of total and national Shareholders to American survey data we come across much more credible survey results that align with other data points. + +https://preview.redd.it/xmb457ynaog71.png?width=712&format=png&auto=webp&s=43bf7c3e80bbba5aa789bb8b2a3137593b100d35 + +https://preview.redd.it/vcuqcjipbog71.png?width=781&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2c91e11c40440434e7abe3c8ee68d2f8e00902a + +[A survey](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oxjv1n/google_survey_update_gme_ownership_w_aapl_control/) by u/Get-It-Got of 2,200 American respondents revealed a GME ownership rate of 3.59% after adjustment by Get-It-Got for couples and married adults. The total figure produced by Get-It-Got of the marriage and couple adjusted adult US population was **4,811,000.** + +If we feed this figure into Bloombergā€™s set to divide by 89.15% or 0.8915 we obtain a total global population estimate of **5,396,522 GME shareholders**. This strikes me as dramatically more realistic than the figures of 245,410,000 (Canadian survey) or 1,407,282,200 (the German survey) otherwise given by the exagerated ownership surveys when applied to Bloomberg's data. It further falls comfortably within, without exceeding, the approximately 10 million accounts tracking the original wall street reddit. Much as we know many of that number are fake, shills, bots, spies, interns and journalists or all of the above, this still provides a not unreasonable upper limit of the GME shareholder population. + +Ā **If Canadian apes represent 0.54% of 5,396,522 shareholders then we instead get an estimate of 29,141 Canadian shareholders, and likewise with Germany at 0.12% our numbers reduce to just 6475. Not millions.** + +Using the Canadian average of 34 shares, Canada's 29,141 shareholders own 990,794, while the German average of 41 gives the 6475 Germans 265,475 shares + +# 2. Average Shares Owned + +Now for where these survey results are wonderful and vastly more credible and my thanks to the work done by the surveyors: their estimates of average shares owned by individual shareholders. + +The combined Canadian average of u/Broad_Price and u/dlegal is 34 shares, while the German average by u/Holzbrett sits at 41 shares on average. Both of these match well with the American average from u/Get-It-Got of 40 and gives us **a conservative range of 34-41 shares on average across an estimated 5,396,522 shareholders.** + +**At 34 shares we get 183,481.748 shares.** + +**At 41 shares we get 221,257,402 shares.** + +If we subtract from both the total of legal shares which is now 76,815,131 (71,815,131 reported in 10-Q as of June 9thĀ plus the 5,000,000 share offering completed in full as of June 22ndĀ and reported in 8-K) we get a range of **between 106,666,617 and 144,442,271 as our estimate of the total synthetics in circulation.** + +This estimated range of shares aligns remarkably well with the 114,000,00 synthetic shares found in the Brazilian puts at Constancia, Kapitalo, and BTG Pactual Asset Management [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/otn94a/can_anyone_explain_the_over_one_million_put/), [2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/otnu92/wtf_are_these_puts_financial_companies_listed_in/), [3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/otzu3e/posting_some_more_info_to_help_wrinkle_brains/), and the mathematics behind the 226% short interest report as detailed by u/Criand [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/otn94a/can_anyone_explain_the_over_one_million_put/h6x2h7a?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +https://preview.redd.it/vf5ejyc3dog71.png?width=695&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2371afdd73d5fce1ae6f3563e43c2a7b14a4df2 + +This also aligns well with the growing count of SEC reported GME Failures To Deliver. **FTDs reported to the SEC through the Continuous Netting Settlement System between 2nd January 2008 and 14th July 2021** (most recent FTD data) shows a cumulative total of **227,769,225 FTDs.** However the way this data is reported is deliberately crap, and FTDs are not necessarily cumulative, but represent the total of FTDs open on the day of report from all sources on the CNS. + +That disclaimer aside, between the **2nd of January 2019 and 30th of June 2021 in particular**, the period covering one full year of normal operations before Covid, through to today, with 2019 also being the year that both Ryan Cohen, DFV, and Michael Burry each bought in to Gamestop (with Burry selling later), **130,011,667 shares Failed To Deliver**. I stress this period because it is recent, and this figure because firstly it aligns with the ownership averages, and options fuckery calculations, and secondly because this number is one where I manually counted each GME FTD in the period to confirm and verify this total, and in turn be corrected against the automatic data scrape linked above. In short, this figure which aligns so well with other data points is not a glitch. + +# 3. The DTCC's Obligations Warehouse Where FTDs Go To Hide. + +Now that I have covered what we might call the "visible" quantity of synthetic shares in our share ownership claims, options fuckery when its visible, and FTDs when they're reported through Continuous Netting Settlement System to the SEC, let me introduce you to the Obligations Warehouse, where Fails to Deliver can get stored and refreshed ad infinitum without ever being reported through the CNS. + +[A lot like Indiana Jones's Area 51](https://preview.redd.it/ckeizxkaxng71.png?width=623&format=png&auto=webp&s=e89ec88cedea1ea2c8821e0cc844cc81df42e9ab) + +If we return to the visible FTDs the introductory paragraph on the [SEC's website](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) tells us that **FTDs reported to the SEC are only those reported through the Continuous Net Settlement System**; that these reports are an aggregate of outstanding FTDs on that day from all sources both new and old; and that basically the data here doesn't mean shit. + +https://preview.redd.it/lja4687fhog71.png?width=956&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d9321a4f35534cf97e47f159a2d1a63ec7063f0 + +The key here is that only CNS reported Fails are transmitted to the SEC to go into the FTD report. The Obligations Warehouse operated by the DTCC for NSCC participants however explicitly allows Fails to be removed from the CNS System and thus from FTD reporting. + +[From the DTCC's Obligations Warehouse page](https://www.dtcc.com/clearing-services/equities-clearing-services/ow) + +https://preview.redd.it/22arc50urog71.png?width=1094&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fd199b1daac20cfb3f3eb3a369fd1a528ac3de0 + +**Fails that are removed from the CNS reported data**: that would likely be the **227,769,225** GME shares that FTD's since 2008. + +**Non-CNS Automated Customer Account Transfer:** Robinhood's dirty laundry has got to be getting stored here, this would likely be where they have been trying to deal with the massive transfer from Robinhood to others, and where you have been seeing fractional share purchases and transfer costs hundreds of dollars higher than anything ever recorded on the lit markets. + +As for NSCC Balance Order transactions, and Special Trades: I don't know yet without digging into this a tonne. My guess is it deals with Options Fuckery like the Brazil Puts and Dark Pools. It isn't clear to me at all if Dark Pool trades ever Fail To Deliver, and if so where they Fail at, CNS/SEC visible FTD data? Or invisible, discrete Obligations Warehouse data that only the big boys at the NSCC get to see. + +https://preview.redd.it/g8bpy8tyrog71.png?width=1094&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc7830bf4f4af1432109fbfbbdc16739f1e7d0b8 + +This is what I think the whole process looks like for Fails in Lit and Dark markets. I am assuming that CNS ineligible everything is coming from Dark Pools but I don't know anything about this really and could definitely be wrong on that. I need an adult. What the volumes are here I have no idea, although if it is Dark Pools related then we have been consistently seeing Dark Pool volume around 40% of all trade, so it could be a hell of a lot. + +https://preview.redd.it/fc7domq9qog71.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2671acfcf62941a0d44078eb09e0346c6c7c773 + +One critical piece of good news from this Obligations Warehouse however is in this line: + +>Additionally, the non-CNS obligations being stored in OW are **re-priced to the current market value and re-netted** during the periodic RECAPS cycle. + +Price matters. Whatever the hell is happening inside the OW it isn't happening for free. + +Buy and hold. +[https://imgur.com/ncSMBS7](https://imgur.com/ncSMBS7) + +Not as impressive as some of you guys but this is what I did. 2009 was a pretty big year for me, I got married, bought a house and finally got off my ass and started saving. + +&#x200B; + +I had no idea what I was doing at first, I mostly picked sector funds that sounded good like "energy". Around 2012 I discovered index funds. 2012-2018 is pretty much 100% S&P 500 fund. 2019 I moved everything to Vanguard and started to put 10% into bonds. + +&#x200B; + +My table chart is kind of goofy, at first I just did the year over year total increase. Latter on I added the actual withheld amounts and market gains. Probably not the way any certified financial planner would track it but hey! Hope someone finds it useful/inspiring! +Embargoed news for now but advertising should be up by then. Available through selected intermediaries. + +Interest rate an eye watering 4.5% and only five year fixed deal available. +And don't say Brexit - this has been the case for years and years. Am I right in thinking this is 100% BS? Why do UK consumers just accept this as normal? +I call this out wherever I see it, and half the time I get people scolding me for 'moaning about a few pounds'. But it's not just a few, is it? It's a lot of things. Final Fantasy 7, for example, is $60 in the US and Ā£60 in the UK right now. I saw a sample library for musicians yesterday retailing for 'Ā£29/$29/ā‚¬29'. This shit adds up. Am I the only person driven into a blind rage by this blatant dickery? +Yes, it will be possible to activate your wallet with an NFT delivery in the future, but I would personally much prefer to have my wallet up and running before that happens. I wouldn't want to wait on instruction from my fuckin' broker on how to access my NFT dividend should that be something that we receive. + +Here is my step-by-step boomer-esq guide. + +# Step One: + +Download the Chrome add on from [https://wallet.gamestop.com/](https://wallet.gamestop.com/). Click add to Chrome. + +&#x200B; + +https://i.redd.it/snr260vaqzd91.gif + +# Step Two. + +Access your add-ons by clicking that little puzzle piece in the top right. Pin that. Click it. + +Create New Wallet. Check the boxes. + +**YOUR SECRET RECOVERY PHRASE IS THE ONE RING TO RULE THEM ALL.** + +~~Take a picture,~~ write it down. + +# Keep it secret. Keep it safe. + +https://i.redd.it/ddbmnieiqzd91.gif + +# Step Three: + +Set up your password. Wallet overview. + +https://i.redd.it/0jddyt6jrzd91.gif + +# Step Four (Hardest Step): + +Deposit Funds. You have 3 methods of depositing funds. + +1. Buy with a card. This seems like the easiest, boomeriest option, but Chase Bank (Jp Morgan eat a pile of shit) would not let me do this, many non-us based Apes will likely have similar issues. +2. Move ETH from Level 1. If you have a crypto account like coinbase or binance or crypto dot com you can send Ethereum to the Level 1 of your GameStop wallet and then move it from Layer 1 to Layer 2 for activation. (To me, this seems like the worst option because Layer1 sucks.) +3. Receive directly from Layer2 in your Loopring Wallet. This is the method I used as I already had a wallet set up. I downloaded the Loopring app on my phone. Sent funds to it using [layerswap.io](https://layerswap.io) from Coinbase and the fees were extremely small compared to a normal Layer1 transaction. Then simply send straight from your L2 Loopring to your L2 GameStop Wallet using the "Receive" method. + +The Loopring Wallet has some similar steps as previously listed. Activation. Secret phrase. I believe in you, you can do it. + +https://preview.redd.it/hi6id684vzd91.jpg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cfdde3363959ec44b117fc343cfc283e3f4cff49 + +Layerswap page will look like this. You'll enter your Loopring Wallet ID. Then it will have you login to coinbase/kraken/binance etc. Alot of the exhanges are listed and send the ETH from L1 to L2. + +https://preview.redd.it/u1r36vvttzd91.png?width=677&format=png&auto=webp&s=6282ddaf1bb655b8cb7b437088b221a61ac94b8e + +The Ethereum you need to get wallet activated is ridiculously small. It's 19 cents usd at the time of writing this post. A steal to tap in early to the future of E-commerce and the meta verse. + +I love you all, I hope this helps someone that's been putting it off. If you truly cannot fucking figure out how to get it activated, message me and I'll walk you through even slower, but I think with the GIFs and steps you should be good. + +No cell, no sell. To Valhalla. +Genuinely curious. I was made aware early on that I would be totally responsible for my higher education expenses. This in part motivated me to do well in school and seek out scholarships. I worked all throughout undergrad and still had to take out some loans. I am now in a professional school with even more debt. Itā€™s been difficult, but I have been able to take care of myself and a small family while still enjoying life. Despite the challenges, I learned some valuable lessons while fending for myself financially. + +Iā€™ve been surprised to learn how many parents out there pay for their childrenā€™s education (and even post-grad education). I am on a path that will afford me the chance to do the same for my kids. I want to give them the best and set them up for success, but I wonder about this practice of paying for their college. I know Iā€™m biased with my background so any insight would be appreciated. +Do you know if we'll get the next Stimulus by Jan 4? Seriously scraping by to pay my rent this month. I have direct deposit with the IRS. + +Also, side note: I emailed my property management about my finances. Literally will be fine starting in January with my student loan refund and new job's paychecks. However, I am worried they will not renew my lease next year if I show to have struggled financially some this year. Can they do that? +Feel free to tell me off if I'm posting in the wrong group, anyway I'm a minimum wage worker in the US hoping to get a higher education (and higher paying job) in the future but first I'm selling my house which has been estimated at 60k. Anyways I have been told by my dad who is by no means a expert that if I do sell and then put the money in my bank account that the government will then put me in a higher tax bracket and then take it all away in taxes. Is this true? If so what am I supposed to do with the money? Buy a safe? Stuff it in a mattress? +Seriously I've been scouring for any bear conversation about the short term that includes one single brain cell of activity. + +Lots of people quick to point out the lack of long term fundamentals, and sir to you I say, this is a casino, behind a dumpster, behind a Wendy's. + +Someone tell me why this is not one of the most one sided short term best we have ever seen + +I'm not talking about some of the more extreme theories on the spin off subreddits, but the actual public data surrounding the stock recently. + +Specifically; 25% and up short interest, 70+ days at 100% utilization, and cost to borrow spiking like it did on the initial "squeeze" + +It seems like a no Brainer, and frankly all the bearish comments are disappointing, can anyone actually tell me why a short term squeeze won't happen at this point? + +Edit: 3 hours in, lots of long term bear cases, and people calling it a cult, no actual short term bear cases and the stock is up 20% on open LMAO +Check this out: +http://aikenadvocate.com/comcast-corporation-nasdaqcmcsa-losing-traction-rapidly/79958/ + +>In early trading, the stock has dipped -49.84% on steady volume. + +Someone missed the memo that Comcast had a 2:1 split! +# I WISH I COULD BE A CITADEL EMPLOYEE RIGHT NOW. + +I would stay up late and help the team with all their hard work and late nights. I would provide feedback on graphs and charts of their positions in various stocks. I would get the coffee. Print all the hand outs. Make CD copies of vital and important information. I would work tirelessly countless hours just slaving away behind my computer to collect and analyze data for the next days morning meeting. + +I'm pretty good at getting food too. Like I'd go to the best bagel place, coffee place, sandwich place, pizza place. I would make sure everyone is fed and at the very least lucid for their next teleconference. + +When no one is looking... + +### I would slowly collect all the information and documents that I need to bury that entire company with the SEC. I would bring all the info to various news sources and make sure I get paid multimillion dollar whistle-blower money. Also probably write a book about "corruption and Evil at CITADEL LLC" + +Have a great day CITADEL Interns. +Throwaway to try and stay anonymous. + +So I need some advice with my path to FI. First of all I am an American living in a European country where I finished my masters. I am in my mid 20s and work in a very lucrative niche of Tech. My GF and I both earn the some of the highest starting wages possible in our country (5200 euros net per month, around 67k euros a year combinded). + +My dilemma We both work in tech and both have masters. In the US for our niche the pay is between 120k and 170k for our experience level. In about 3 years I can take the citizenship of the country I live and have healthcare for life, and unlimited access to the rest of the EU. Which would be useful since I want to live here in the end. + +My girlfriend and I keep discussing if its worth it for us to stay. Of course she already has citizenship so she does not see it as a big deal. + +I constantly flip flop back and forth. We spend about 2k euros a month in total. I put the rest towards my student loans (high 5 figures). In the US we would make around 15k dollars net a month. Of course COL would be a bit higher. + +Any advice or guidance. Is the 3 year wait worth it? + +edit: Thanks for the responses so far! They are really helping, one more thing I wanna add: + +Let also say I have benefits. Not sure how to monetize them but I have 43 days vacation, 37 hour work week (yes and never asked for over time), 30 min bike commute, and a 6% of my wage pension paid by my employer. Plus really good private healthcare/life insurance from my employer on top of the great public one. +TruBadger is a crypto token that is designed to be used for all services provided by the TruBadger platform and TruBadgerā€™s existing exchange platform (See Whitepaper https://trubadger.io/#Whitepaper). It is a deflationary reflection utility token. + +AMA list for the week: + +Live with TruBadger! +Tuesday 7pm PDT aka 10pm EDT or 2am UTC on YouTube https://youtube.com/c/TruBadgerToken +COMPLETED + +TruBadger interviewing Sonar ($PING) +Wednesday 2pm PDT aka 5pm EDT or 9pm UTC on YouTube https://youtube.com/c/TruBadgerToken + +TruBadger weekly burn party šŸŽŠ +Wednesday 7pm PDT aka 10pm EDT or 2am UTC on YouTube https://youtube.com/c/TruBadgerToken + +TruBadger featured on Crypto Monsters +Thursday 12pm PDT aka 3pm EDT or 7pm UTC on YouTube https://youtube.com/c/TruBadgerToken + +TruBadger interviewed by Sonar ($PING) +Thursday 2pm PDT aka 5pm EDT or 9pm UTC on YouTube https://youtube.com/c/TruBadgerToken + +Token Name: TruBadger ($TRUBGR) + +Contract: 0xc003f5193cabe3a6cbb56948dfeaae2276a6aa5e + +Launched: Monday, June 14th, 2021 + +Market cap: $ 23M + +Liquidity: $ 1.7M (Locked) + +Holders: 2760 + +CoinGecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/trubadger + +TechRate Audit: https://www.trubadger.io/audit.pdf + +DeerLock Certified: https://www.deerlock.com/trubager + +Official Telegram: t.me/TruBadgerOfficial + +Official Discord: https://discord.com/channels/852342699453710336/859128740373987358 + +Official Website: https://www.trubadger.io + +YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4jiJRPfUt7nBSgX9sJCXKA + +What prioritizes TruBadger? + +1. BSC token Made/launched in America by American team! +2. 16 person main team to continuously communicate with new token holders and run the project. +3. Extremely helpful team that constantly communicates with new members of the group to help them learn the "how to" on everything about the BSC token industry and get set up. +4. Helpful YouTube channel that explains literally everything you need to know. [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4jiJRPfUt7nBSgX9sJCXKA](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4jiJRPfUt7nBSgX9sJCXKA) +5. Extreme transparency about who the team is and what they are doing. +6. Team has extensive experience in marketing, robotics, a.i , software development and blockchain. +7. Real "caring of others" community to HODL with. +8. Listed on Coin Gecko. [https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/trubadger](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/trubadger) +9. Community governance allows token holders to actually have a legit say in what is happening. +10. Quality of work is far superior to other BSC token teams in the industry. +11. Tech Rate audit complete! [https://www.trubadger.io/audit.pdf](https://www.trubadger.io/audit.pdf) +12. Disruptive. The crypto space was ready for a friendly, bringing everyone on the journey token, which they hope will extend to the 2 billion poorest unbanked in the world. This could be the beginning of a dot com boom for the crypto space as the community rolls out projects to do this and add more value to the token, enhancing the lives of many. +13. Eco friendly. This does not require the energy requirements that other cryptos need in order to produce. +14. Fun. Seriously, live music and dancing at on on-line burn šŸ”„ party šŸŽ‰? Very cool people. Smart, caring, passionate, sincere. Iā€™m in! Oh, wait, Iā€™m literally IN. Iā€™ve known these folks for years and believe in them wholeheartedly. + +Tokenomics: + +Supply: 1,000,000,000,000,000 tokens (One Quadrillion) + +Current Burn: 20% at Launch + .6% after launch so far + +Redistribution: Holders will receive tokens through a 3% static reflection. + +Liquidity Fund: Every transaction automatically contributes 4% to the locked liquidity pool. + +Anti-Whale: The buy/sell/Transfer limit is 2 Trillion TRBGR per transaction. + +Growing Ecosystem: A growing protocol ecosystem. TruBadger protocol empowers everyone to participate in a financial marketplace that is transparent, open and accessible. + +Burn : Weekly 1% public token burn events to guarantee deflation. + +Contest: Regular contest for HODLers with 2.5% of all tokens allocated to reward community. + +Vision: Future marketing growth and project development funds equaling 2% of taxes. + +LP Locked: Liquidity Pool is locked for 90 days. + +World-class Team: A decentralized team works across entities to ensure that TruBadger stays true to its purpose as they advance and evolve. + +Will respond to questions listed in the comments or come check out the telegram/discord/subreddit and post away! + +See you there! šŸ„³ šŸ’° šŸš€ + +Weā€™ve really come along way + +Keep pushing for positive changes + +Keep fucking loving each other + +Keep DRSā€™n those moon tix + +Hedgies Rā€™ Fuk + +Ryan Cohen is hot + +My ass itches + + + +Iā€™m not selling til Ken Griffin of Citadel is giving Blowies for mayo packets + +We all know GameStop is going to be a behemoth tech giant and I canā€™t wait to watch it develop + +The price is wrong + +Eew eew llams evah I + +*if you are not a Directly Registered Shareholder (DRS) do you actually own them? +Amazon (AMZN) is to cease accepting payments made by UK-issued Visa (V) credit cards from next year, it has been revealed. + +The online retail giant blamed the decision on high fees charged by Visa to process transactions. + +The changes will come into effect as early as 19 January 2022, Bloomberg first reported, citing information that Amazon had shared with its customers this week, after they had purchased items. + +$V down approx 3.25% in the pre-market. + +Thoughts? +As a Finance Major starting up my Junior year I'd like to get some real insight on real people's experience. + +Edit: Just got home and saw all of the responses. Thank you so much for all the insight and knowledge! It's really motivating to see how far along people have come. + + +This is your safe place for questions on financial careers, homework problems and finance in general. No question in the finance domain is unwelcome. + +Replies are expected to be constructive and civil. + +Any questions about your *personal* finances belong in [r/PersonalFinance](https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinance/), and career-seekers are encouraged to also visit [r/FinancialCareers](https://www.reddit.com/r/FinancialCareers/). + + +TD: + +TD is the sixth largest bank in north america. They have over 26 million customers. Their main operations are: + +* Canadian retail (TD canada trust, TD auto finance canada, TD wealth canada, td direct investing and TD insurance) +* American retail (TD bank, TD auto finance US, TD wealth US) +* TD securities + +They have 14m online customers and 1.7t in assets. They implemented a deferral program which worked quite well in 2020. 25% of canadian lending accounts took part in this program in april, and by late october, there were only 2.2 percent of accounts still participating. This likely artificially depressed some financial values such as cash flows, interest payments and accounts receivable which could have been reflected by a lower price, justified if one is speculating but truely an artificial value as loans return to normal. This program accounted for 45.7b in loans. Similar results were seen in America, with 11.9b in loans, representing 21% of accounts in April later transitioning to 5.2% of accounts. This is not as attractive as canadian accounts, but is only 25% of the size, and a tiny fraction of balance sheet items, as well as having a shorter deferral period. + +The bank recently carried out what they call the Schwab transaction, where they acquired 13.5% of the Schwab corporation. This transaction is healthy, and Schwab has about 80% of its market cap covered in cash alone, as well as 6b in FCF for a 120b cap. + +TD has managed to increase revenue and net income in 2020. They allocated more capital for credit losses, but managed to pay less taxes likely in light of the current economic and societal situation. + +**Business segment overview:** + +They have 16m customers in Canada. This is almost half of the population, which likely will have a monopolizing effect. They have credit cards, auto finance services, business banking, merchant solutions, asset management services, and an insurance business in canada. In the United States they have personal/business banking, and TD ameritrade. + +They operate a wholesale banking segment which operates like any investment bank. This segment operates under the TD securities brand. + +There is a vast segment called the corporate segment which does a number of different operations. These operations include technology solutions, shared services, treasury and balance sheet management (asset management?), marketing, human resources, finance risk management, compliance \[management\], legal, anti-money laundering, and ?other? Operations. It seems quite difficult to find information on this segment, other than it has a margin of about -20%, making it even more curious. + +Segment analysis: + +All segments other than corporate are profitable, and have similar margins around 25%. + +Canadian retail has seen slight increases every year since 2018. Net income in this segment has been declining. A decrease in personal banking revenue by 750m was countered by a 200m increase in business banking, a 400m increase in wealth banking, and a 250m increase in insurance, resulting in increased revenue from 2019 to 2020. There is quite a high ROE for this segment. + +US retail has seen stable, cyclical revenues with a macro up trend. Net income significantly dropped in 2020. Deposits grew in personal and business banking and in sweep. The ROE in this segment is significantly lower than in the canadian retail segment. + +In wholesale banking, there was a sharp increase in revenue and in net income. This segment has a ROE of 16.9. They were a part of a number of large name broker actions, acting as an intermediary. They carry out some trading, research, underwriting, securitization, trade finance, cash management, brokerage, and trade execution services in their global markets segment. In the corporate/investment banking sector they do corporate lending, debt/equity underwriting and advisory services. + +The corporate segment is a number of service and control groups. It seems to manage tax items, treasury and balance sheet activities, and some other shady sounding operations. It seems like this segment manages some accounting, as well as some issuance of equities/debt equities. + +The balance sheet is very large. There was a $300 billion increase from 2019-20. This was mostly related to a large increase in deposits. The bank has 718b in loans. Of these, only about 2b were stage three. Factoring in allowance for credit loss, there is a possible delinquency rate just below 2 percent at around 12b which is covered 15 times over by cash alone. With most liabilities in deposits, there is no immediate concern in the balance sheet. There are almost 200b in securities sold under repurchase agreements, which will be evaluated over at least 5 years, presenting again little threat. + +The loans can be broken down into regional and segmental sections. Canadian residential mortgages account for 213billion of the loans. Mortgage delinquency rates in canada are 0.23% as of Jan 31, 2021. This equates to about 212.5b in real value from the mortgage loans, although TD has allocated about 100 million less than I recommend. HELOCs account for another adjusted 95 billion. All together, personal loans account for 369.256b on the balance sheet. Conservatively taking delinquencies at 1b, this figure is adjusted to 268.256b for analytical purposes. Real estate represents about 40 billion in canadian loans, and assorted business and government is another 115.2b, predominantly in the financial and consumer staples industries. All of these loans look healthy at first glance. + +United states loans are similar. There are 100b in personal loans, 35.4b in real estate, and 148.3 in business and government with a similar allocation as the corresponding canadian section under the same name. There is 9b in other international loans. The total is about 734.9b. There is about a 5.3 percent average increase YOY in pure volume of loans. + +TD decisively estimates that 1.3b of loans are in stage 3, which may be a little conservative for most analysts. Preparing for up to one percent delinquency is in order because of the recent volatility in the market right now as well as in the canadian economy as an expected third wave of Covid-19 expands its grasp. In table 33 of the 2020 annual report, they allocate 7 billion to credit losses which is much more reasonable because they account for stage 1 and 2 as well. In this time of great uncertainty, it is not unreasonable to change this estimate to 20b. The bank has apparent backing from the canadian government so there is no immediate threat to allocate a tenth of capital reserves to delinquencies. +Every year I try to buy something interesting in my TFSA. + +One year it was pot stocks (Still holding onto Cresco and Trulieve for some reason), then a water etf (CWW), then robotics/automation (RBOT). *Obviously* the breadth of the TFSA is XEQT but I like to have a bit in thematic etfs. +Hey guys, + +I'm looking for "outside the box" dividend stocks that pay 3-4%. + +What I mean by outside the box is not your typical TD, ENB, etc... + +For instance. I have CWB, GWO, NTR, AQN... + +Trying to find some more like this. + +Thanks in advance +Noticed that Indigo jumped 20% after their quarterly showed online growth offsetting in-store losses. What are your thoughts on this one? Currently available at $1.20. + +Quarterly for reference: [https://static.indigoimages.ca/2020/corporate/indigo\_fy21-q1\_press-release.pdf](https://static.indigoimages.ca/2020/corporate/indigo_fy21-q1_press-release.pdf) +BBBY just filed an 8k this morning (url below). This is very likely the closest they can legally get to say he does not plan to cash out right now as people have been reporting without actually saying it. RC very likely also had input on the statement - no way they would out it out without talking to him if they are mentioning him. He might very well be the one who pushed the filing...bullish. + +https://bedbathandbeyond.gcs-web.com/static-files/5f25ce43-4bf4-41ea-ac61-7b6b9fd7867e + +Edit to simplify for apes: Companies file a form 8k whenever there is a material event that may be of interest to shareholders. That implies that the statement they have in the 8k is a material event to shareholders. The statement mentions, in its first sentence, that they are "pleased to have entered into an agreement with RC in March", which is not new news (it happend in March). In my opinion, it is the company "re-affirming" the agreement is still in place. The company nor RC can legally say he is not selling. The company can get sued for a bunch of shit and RC for market manipultion. That's as close as they can get. Hope that helps. Basically...very bullish imo. + +TLDR: RC is not selling! + +Edit #2: HE DID SELL. THANK YOU ALL FOR LETTING ME KNOW :) +So for my first ever options purchase I bought Home Depot Aug 21 Call. +Reason: I went to Home Depot yesterday and there were a lotta people. +Is this the typical big brained analysis worthy enough for /wallstreetbets? + +Edit: thx to whoeverā€™s giving all these awards lmao +Is this end game? Sure fucking smells like the dumpster fire weā€™ve been waiting years for. Am I scared? Honestly? Yes, I am(NOT FUD). Iā€™m scared just because we are living through a time of absolute uncertainty. + +But, *the one thing I AM CERTAIN OF* is as soon as this bitch pops off and I get my money, I am going to make it my G-d damn mission to stabilize those who would normally be crushed by this, and make sure they have everything they need. + +Netflix fucked around and said apes ā€œeat the richā€ but **none of us would eat that rotten fucking meat** I will however, eat crayons as I ā€œwatch the rich get whatā€™s coming to themā€ for destabilizing the entire world at the cost of their excessive comforts, their relentless crime, their abuse of power, and their recreational space missions. + +**WE ARE THE ONLY MOTHER FUCKERS THAT SHOULD BE GOING TO THE MOON.** + +The world doesnā€™t need billionaires. But MOASS is going to produce a LOT of billionaires, and I hope Iā€™m not the only one who is perfectly okay with having maybe $10M for myself by the end of all this. + +So, I ask, I the only one? +TL;DR: The yield curve may invert by summer of this year, pointing to a recession in 2023. And history suggests that in "bubbly" markets like we have today, market peaks happen when the yield curve inverts. This may offer useful signs to watch for to know when to run for the hills. + +[Graph 1](https://i.imgur.com/ZPGOiiU.png): Based on its trajectory over the last ~4 months, the yield curve appears to be heading for an inversion by summer, assuming something doesn't change its trajectory (and to be fair, it could). Yield curve inversions almost always presage a recession 6-18 months later (average of 15.1 months according to Bank of America). + +[Graph 2](https://i.imgur.com/N1PV6TY.png): The only exceptions in the last century was a false positive in 1965, and the Great Depression/World War 2 era when the Fed was actively manipulating rates to stabilize the economy and fund the war effort. + +[Graph 3](https://i.imgur.com/yMbbJwz.png): The Fed rate tends to peak or plunge when the yield curve inverts. Given that it is poised to invert by summer, and [CME FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html) is currently predicting the Fed rate will be ~1.25-1.50%, the current tightening cycle may not make it to 2%. This is important, because in previous recessions, the Fed has lowered rates by ~5% when a recession hits to stimulate the economy. You can't do that when rates are 1.5%. + +[Graph 4](https://i.imgur.com/dYQkQuA.png)/[Graph 5](https://i.imgur.com/dPgF40S.png): These compare the yield curve with stocks (as shown by the detrended S&P 500) and housing prices (as shown by real Case-Shiller HPI). For "bubbly" markets like stocks in 2000/2008 and homes in 1989/2007, yield curve inversions tend to mark market tops, with prices peaking or plunging soon thereafter. + +[Graph 6](https://i.imgur.com/l6dWpe1.png): This takes multiple valuation measures (Shiller PE, detrended log real S&P price, Tobin's Q, Buffett Indicator, and Aggregate Investor Equity Allocation for stocks; Case-Shiller HPI, FHFA All-Transactions HPI, Freddie Mac HPI, and Zillow ZHVI for housing) and graphs the z-score of them so we can compare apples to apples. We can see we're in both a massive stock (3rd largest in the last 140 years) and housing bubble (largest in the last 130 years). +Hi all, new poster here. I took my elderly father grocery shopping today at Hannaford. I donā€™t shop there except for loss leaders, sale meat. Everything comes from Aldi for the most part. Iā€™ve been going to Walmart for Dh and I and my parents other times but he wanted to go to Hannaford. I was astounded at the prices. 5.75 for a 48oz bottle of generic canola oil, 5.49 for 8 Oscar Meyer hot dogs, 3.99 for hot dog buns, 3.25 for a small box of cheese crackers, over 5.00 for a box of freaking Wheaties! I saw this coming and made sure we are stocked on most non-perishables for close to a year but how are people without that option going to make it? What are you seeing where you are? +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[Hello fellow Apes, its Deep Dive time! Today is the day of many Moon chicken tenderloins! Just Kidding!](https://preview.redd.it/ilik9lqt75871.jpg?width=625&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f11b3d361c61bb5553b8f123a5e2a9ce2060d6a4) + +Seriously though, Iā€™d like to take a stab at an On Balance Volume (OBV) DD. Go over what OBV is, what we are seeing with this indicator and how it relates to the stock we like. On a routine basis weā€™ve seen posts with reference to OBV and statements that it shows no one is selling off. There has however been some controversy that this statement doesnā€™t hold true and related FUD that there has been a recent selling trend. Letā€™s understand OBV and test which of these theories holds true. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[So What is OBV and What is it Signaling for GME? ](https://preview.redd.it/ctugc2rv75871.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5ea3f31397a2969e1779df03293741400fb1546) + +**How Iā€™ve Broken Up this Due Diligence:** + +* I) Obligatory This is Not Financial Advice Statement +* II) What is On-Balanced Volume (OBV) (History, Concept & Theory) +* III) How is OBV Calculated +* IV) What is OBV Used For / How the Indicator Works +* V) Criticism of OBV with GME (A Focus on Divergence) +* VI) Testing GME OBV (Does the Trend Show a Sell-Off?) +* VII) My Ape Conclusion / TLDR +* i) My Sources for this DD + +&#x200B; + +# I) Obligatory This is Not Financial Advice Statement + +I am not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I am not a finance professional in any manner through any formal education. I can however smoke/grill an exceptionally good tenderloin steak, but of course thatā€™s just my opinion man! But yeah, your basic Ape here that learned the inter-webs and drew some pretty graphs for SuperStonkā€™s entertainment and discussion purposes. Almost all this post is regurgitated data that I cut and paste from public sources on the web. + +&#x200B; + +Ok, now thatā€™s out of the wayā€¦let me take a stab at understanding OBVā€¦ + +&#x200B; + +# II) What is On-Balanced Volume (OBV) (History, Concept & Theory) + +On-balance volume (OBV) is a technical trading momentum indicator that uses volume flow to predict changes in stock price. Joseph Granville first developed the OBV metric in the 1963 book Granville's New Key to Stock Market Profits. + +&#x200B; + +Granville believed that volume was the key force behind markets and designed OBV to project when major moves in the markets would occur based on volume changes. In his book, he described the predictions generated by OBV as "a spring being wound tightly." He believed that when volume increases sharply without a significant change in the stock's price, the price will eventually jump upward or fall downward. \[1\] + +&#x200B; + +I feel most of us would agree with that statement regarding how GME usually responds to a daily dose of high volume. \[A\] + +&#x200B; + +The basic theory behind the On Balance Volume indicator is that volume precedes price. Buying and Selling pressure precede actual price changes, and this indicator measures the buying and selling pressure by using volume. + +&#x200B; + +When volume on PRICE UP days is greater than volume on PRICE DOWN days, OBV increases. + +When volume on PRICE DOWN days is greater than volume on PRICE UP days, OBV decreases. \[3\] + +&#x200B; + +# III) How is OBV Calculated + +On Balance Volume (OBV) measures buying and selling pressure as a cumulative indicator that adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days. When the security closes higher than the previous close, all of the dayā€™s volume is considered up-volume. When the security closes lower than the previous close, all of the dayā€™s volume is considered down-volume. \[2\] + +&#x200B; + +Again, On Balance Volume is calculated by adding the day's volume to a cumulative total when the security's price closes up and subtracting the day's volume when the security's price closes down. + +&#x200B; + +ļ‚§ If today's close is greater than yesterday's close then: + +OBV = Yesterdayā€™s OBV + Todayā€™s Volume + +&#x200B; + +ļ‚§ If todayā€™s close is less than yesterdayā€™s close then: + +OBV = Yesterdayā€™s OBV ā€“ Todayā€™s Volume + +&#x200B; + +ļ‚§ If todayā€™s close is equal to yesterdayā€™s close then: + +OBV = Yesterdayā€™s OBV \[2\] + +&#x200B; + +I would stress when understanding the calculation, that OBV is a macro indicator focused on daily metrics. Analyzing OBV on an hourly basis in a short time frame may not really give you an accurate trend or direction of the overall buying/selling pressure. \[A\] + +&#x200B; + +# IV) What is OBV Used For / How the Indicator Works + +OBV is generally used to confirm price moves. The idea is that volume is higher on days where the price move is in the dominant direction, for example in a strong uptrend there is more volume on up days than down days. \[4\] + +&#x200B; + +**How this indicator works:** + +The actual value of the OBV is unimportant; concentrate on its direction.\[2\] (This is important concept with OBV IMO \[A\]) + +&#x200B; + +**Trend Confirmation:** + +OBV can be used to confirm price trends. Where volume supports price action this creates convergence. + +&#x200B; + +This can be seen when looking at the OBV trend vs. the underlying assetā€™s daily high price. Is there convergence or divergence between the two? Convergence is where the trend in the OBV line corresponds with the trend in the underlying assetā€™s price. Conversely, if the two trend lines trend away from each other, this is obviously divergence. \[A,5\] + +&#x200B; + +Divergence Example: + +[This is called a negative divergence or bearish divergence. This is often interpreted as an indication of lower prices ahead because buyer interest is declining despite the rising price.](https://preview.redd.it/21uqyf7y75871.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b375bad1985dc86bbeecde79ed63dec121e020) + +Where both the price and OBV line are rising, this is a signal that the price will continue to climb. Vice versa, where the price and OBV line are both falling, traders can continue to expect the downward trend in price to continue. + +&#x200B; + +[A downward confirming trend, both price and OBV are making lower peaks and lower troughs.](https://preview.redd.it/jxw1o4v085871.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb87a8b419c228ec20f6b82417b24e381a5d479d) + +The degree of slope in the OBV line is critical to confirm the strength of the signal. Price movements on a slightly sloped OBV line is not a strong indicator. Price changes of a steep-sloped OBV line is a strong indicator. \[5\] + +&#x200B; + +**Trading Signals:** + +When OBV is up, buying pressure is up and when OBV is down, then selling pressure is up.\[3\] + +&#x200B; + +* When both price and OBV are making higher peaks and higher troughs, the upward trend is likely to continue. +* When both price and OBV are making lower peaks and lower troughs, the downward trend is likely to continue. +* During a trading range, if the OBV is rising, accumulation may be taking placeā€”a warning of an upward breakout. +* During a trading range, if the OBV is falling, distribution may be taking placeā€”a warning of a downward breakout. +* When price continues to make higher peaks and OBV fails to make higher peaks, the upward trend is likely to stall or fail. This is called a negative divergence. +* When price continues to make lower troughs and OBV fails to make lower troughs, the downward trend is likely to stall or fail. This is called a positive divergence.\[2\] + +&#x200B; + +# V) Criticism of OBV with GME (A Focus on Divergence) + +**Large Spikes in Volume Throw Off OBV** + +Company announcements, news releases, and a multitude of other reasons can cause traders to either become excited or concerned about a stockā€™s price potential. This can lead to a mass of buying or dumping of stock. This sudden increase in volume can throw off an OBV Indicator for a period of time. This is because volume is added or subtracted to the running OBV total. One large spike in volume will require a settling period. During this settling period, the OBV indicator will not be reliable in providing trend confirmation or price reversal signals.\[5\] + +&#x200B; + +**My Ape Thoughts:** + +A large spike in volume is obviously the biggest criticism of GME OBV. The initial GME squeeze in January saw a massive volume spike in a noticeably short period. + +&#x200B; + +The OBV debate now with GME is if there is a sell-off occurring in recent months or if the diamond hands continue to buy and hold. This leads us to a more in depth look at OBV divergences and charting GMEā€™s data. Iā€™ll get to that below. + +&#x200B; + +The subjective question is how long is the typical OBV Indicator ā€œthrown offā€? What is this period Iā€™ve time? IMO weā€™ve seen 5 solid months of post squeeze GME buying and selling pressure with more normalized volume. I would argue a February through June GME OBV vs. price chart would sufficiently show an accurate trend. Iā€™ll test that out below. + +&#x200B; + +Again, the controversy around GME OBV deals with the premise that the massive January volumes have thrown off the OBV trend. That when viewed from a 6-Month or YTD perspective OBV is not useful to predict possible GME buying/selling trends. \[A\] + +&#x200B; + +So here are the questions we must ask to either confirm or disprove the skeptics: + +* If we removed January volumes and viewed OBV and price from February to now, would it change the buying/selling trend? +* What would the buying/selling trend be if we only looked at the last 60 market days? +* Does January even matter? Will OBV, regardless of the start date, always take the same shape? + +&#x200B; + +Letā€™s touch on Divergences one more time: + +**Divergences** + +OBV can be used as signals for trend reversals. Where volume does not support price action, this creates divergence. + +&#x200B; + +**Bullish Divergence** occurs where the OBV line moves higher while the underlying assetā€™s price continues to fall. As volume precedes price, a bullish divergence creates a buy signal as the price is expected to reverse and launch upwards. + +&#x200B; + +**Bearish Divergence** occurs where the OBV line moves lower while the underlying price rises. Just like a tightly wound spring, bearish divergences create a sell signal and traders can expect the price to reverse and launch back down. \[5\] + +&#x200B; + +So letā€™s chart this out and find out if GME OBV is Bullish, Bearish, confirming up or confirming down? + +&#x200B; + +# VI) Testing GME OBV (Does the Trend Show a Sell-Off?) + +First let us look at GMEā€™s OBV past 12 months as a base line. OBV in Navy and the Daily High Price in the Dashed Green. + +[Baseline GME OBV vs. Price over the past year. A general upward trend shown.](https://preview.redd.it/4sz64tm385871.png?width=2294&format=png&auto=webp&s=af33cd4650306de9a2e2467f81c109ccb29b988d) + +Next Letā€™s compare the trend and shape of OBV from December 2020 to June 2021 (Red) compared to February 2021 to June 2021 (Blue). This will help us answer the first question of ā€œDoes January even matter?ā€ Will OBV, regardless of the start date, always take the same shape? + +&#x200B; + +[GME OBV with January Volume \(Red\) and without January volume \(Blue\)](https://preview.redd.it/qv0ps1t585871.png?width=2310&format=png&auto=webp&s=db0245f6cc9dbfcd7569bc302d31497cd4bfa339) + +Now if you remember from above on how this indicator works, the actual value of the OBV is unimportant; we only need to concentrate on its direction. If you look at this chart from February 1st to today, the trend and shape is identical, only at different values. + +&#x200B; + +This begins to answer our questions. January only matters for January. The 5 months succeeding do not appear to be thrown off by the January spike. At worse, 2-3 weeks of February are still boggled from the volume spike. Iā€™m confident looking at March through Juneā€™s OBV will give this analysis a solid trend. + +&#x200B; + +This leads us to looking at two more charts. Letā€™s analyze the trading signals for: + +&#x200B; + +1 - OBV and daily high price from March to now. + +2 - OBV and daily high price from the past 60 days. + +&#x200B; + +**March to June Chart:** + +[GME OBV Macro Analysis from March to June, negating the January Spike in Volume](https://preview.redd.it/o9uhvt0985871.png?width=2508&format=png&auto=webp&s=53317db4b81dd5ac9eb0344dda1fa80cc8d50df1) + +So this most macro view of the past 5 months does not show us a divergent trend, bullish or bearish. I would say this is a weak downward confirming trend . Extremely weak and remember the degree of slope in the OBV line is critical to confirm the strength of the signal. Price movements on a slightly sloped OBV line is not a strong indicator. + +&#x200B; + +If you look at the 4/25 to about 5/23 sideways price trading range, the OBV during this time rising. This indicated buying interest and accumulation of shares during this time which will ultimately lead to a breakout to the upside on 5/25. (this comment isnā€™t trended on the chart, but is positive/bullish) + +&#x200B; + +So lets look at the last 60 days to see if this gives a clearer picture. + +&#x200B; + +**May through June chart:** + +[Two OBV Trend in the past 60 days, confirming up and confirming down.](https://preview.redd.it/l8tsanwb85871.png?width=2434&format=png&auto=webp&s=96cf4580cffdb6870f8cdd478ffaefb0e62ebf9b) + +At first pass, the past 60-day OBV trend didnā€™t appear divergent, bullish or bearish. From late April through early June an upward confirming trend demonstrating buying and holding (solid trend lines). Then, since GME hit $344 on 6/8 there appeared to be a trend reversal towards a downward confirming trend (dashed trend lines)ā€¦..but, butā€¦ I think that I'm looking at it incorrectlyā€¦. + +&#x200B; + +**May through June 2nd Look:** + +[Letā€™s take a closer look at just June](https://preview.redd.it/391rnxsd85871.png?width=2404&format=png&auto=webp&s=93ed42803465648c15df32895160ec2f4b39ccbd) + +Looking closer at just the past month, it occurred to me that we are actually looking more bullish than anything else. Bullish divergence happens when prices make a lower bottom but the OBV does not decline to new lows. Thatā€™s clear with the red trend lines. Otherwise, the dashed trend lines show a bullish upward confirming trend. + +# POST EDIT on 6/29: + +I Ran this chart on Yahoo with a similar focus as the May through June charts above and got very similar results. Purple trend lines show a bullish upward confirming trend. Red Trend lines are showing a **Bullish Divergence** (where the OBV line moves higher while the underlying assetā€™s price continues to fall). Green Trend lines show a downward confirming trend in the past few weeks, but I believe the prior red and purple trend lines make up for this recent downward pressure. I'm still jacked! + +https://preview.redd.it/k7osfbmuz9871.png?width=964&format=png&auto=webp&s=27cda7d59a2fcb95c4fc77d93789b65666df101d + +# VII) My Ape Conclusion / TLDR + +&#x200B; + +**First observation,** while I agree with the GME OBV critics that large spikes in volume can throw off a OBV indicator, **I would argue that since March the volume has normalized** enough that we can use OBV to some degree to measures buying and selling pressure. + +&#x200B; + +**Second observation**, when looking at the OBV vs daily high price since March is formed a very weak downward confirming trend. This trend is practically flat. I donā€™t believe this was a sell off. I think averaged across this time period p**eople actually did just slowly buy and hold**. + +&#x200B; + +**Third observation**, when looking at the last 60-days, especially the last 3 weeks, weā€™ve actually seen an **upward confirming trend** reverse into a possible **Bullish Divergence** (where the OBV line moves higher while the underlying assetā€™s price continues to fall). As volume precedes price, a bullish divergence creates a buy signal as the price is expected to reverse and launch upwards. + +&#x200B; + +# Finally, donā€™t listen to anyone about a sell off, things arenā€™t getting worse, they appear to be getting better with this indicator. No dates, but if the trend over the past few weeks holds, I would expect a potential upward breakout. + +&#x200B; + +Thank you! Now please throw darts at this DD and tell me what I missed! + +&#x200B; + +[OBV Signals are Clear for Lift Off!](https://preview.redd.it/ykh89x8g85871.jpg?width=588&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c95cc21a3e10a695578b3b7ca8105553053b3deb) + +# A few closing thoughts on OBV in general: + +**Not a Standalone Indicator** + +OBV is not a standalone indicator. A criticism of OBV is that it doesnā€™t account for the degree in price movement. Regardless of whether the stock price moves by a few cents or hundreds of dollars, if the closing price is greater than the prior closing price, volume will be added to the OBV running total. This doesnā€™t provide a holistic view of price action which in turn can create misleading or confusing trade signals. + +&#x200B; + +One way to combat this is to pair OBV (a leading indicator) with a lagging indicator such as a moving average. A long-term moving average can be plotted on top of the OBV line (not the price chart) and can provide additional confirmation of trend direction. Where OBV is moving above the moving average, this confirms an upward trend. Conversely, an OBV below the moving average confirms a downward trend. + +&#x200B; + +**Is OBV a good indicator?** + +One limitation of OBV is that it is a leading indicator, meaning that it may produce predictions, but there is little it can say about what has actually happened in terms of the signals it produces. Because of this, it is prone to produce false signals. It can therefore be balanced by lagging indicators. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**i) Sources:** + +\[A\] My Own Ape Thoughts + +\[1\] [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp) + +\[2\] [https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/technical-analysis/technical-indicator-guide/obv](https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/technical-analysis/technical-indicator-guide/obv) + +\[3\] [https://indzara.com/2021/04/on-balance-volume-technical-indicator/](https://indzara.com/2021/04/on-balance-volume-technical-indicator/) + +\[4\] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-balance\_volume](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-balance_volume) + +\[5\] [https://leah-mathieson.medium.com/the-on-balance-volume-obv-indicator-how-volume-can-improve-your-trading-4ce18da5bc3f](https://leah-mathieson.medium.com/the-on-balance-volume-obv-indicator-how-volume-can-improve-your-trading-4ce18da5bc3f) +My partner and I have been looking for a furnished or unfurnished 1-2 bed in a good standard in Zones 1-2 with outer space recently. She spent hours scanning through Zoopla, Rightmove, Movebubble and OpenRent and inquired dozens of properties and yet we only got a couple of viewings, only 1 of which we liked but did not get. Our budget is 2300 pm. +In our desperation we even went to foxtons who said the market is really quiet and they have nothing for us. + +Do others experience the same? If yes, is it related to Brexit and how long is it gonna last? +I've been with Nationwide for around 3-4 months, and within the past 5-6 weeks there have been fraudulent transactions on my account, all flagged by verified by visa. The transactions have all been in Dominos. They've had to cancel and replace three cards now. They do the same thing: block the device the transaction was made on, cancel and replace my card. Yet they can't tell me how this might be happening. I only make purchases online on secure sites, I've changed the ATMs I use, and nobody else has access to my card. And I never order from Dominos. +At this point I think I need to close my account and bank elsewhere as I'm starting to be without a card more than I have a card. But I don't know if changing banks would solve this. +Can anyone shed any light on why this might be happening? I've gone through a few banks in the last few years, and it's never happened to me before. +In fact I am going to double my overall position in BBUS today. Don't think dow can keep going up in midst of what's happening in America and it will come crashing down soon. +Long time lurker, first time poster. Details a little fuzzy for anonymity: + +Early 30s, unmarried, ~1.4M liquid NW in VHCOL. + +I'm very fortunate to have won the startup lottery. As a followup for a fundraising round, my employer recently announced they would do tender offer for existing shareholders. For RSU holders, this is being done by converting 30% of vested RSUs to common, withholding some for taxes (at supplemental rates), and then being able to choose how much of the remaining common to sell. After withholdings, I have up to ~$1M available to sell, with another ~$6.5M in RSUs left. + +Reasons to sell more: + +* Diversification + liquidity. I don't love having the vast majority of my NW in a single company +* Help cover the fairly large tax bill I will have this year regardless of what I choose + +Reasons to sell less: + +* No immediate pressing needs in terms of purchases/debts/etc +* Company is probably not far off IPO (12-18 months?), and I suspect the price being offered is likely less than what they would be worth on the market currently. But maybe... 1.5-2x the price at best, certainly not 5x+ +* Holding onto common stock has some tax benefits. If I sell now the spread between the the buyback price and the FMV is taxed as income in a year my income will be 1M+, versus even at the same price if we're public a year from now would be LTCG. + +Considering I'll still have a lot of skin in the game regardless, I'm probably thinking of selling at least 500-600k, but curious what others think? Recent market skitters have made me tempted to sell a little more +I have heard a lot of people say landlords will try to recover extra mortgage costs by lifting rents but wouldn't higher interest rates equal less jobs and thus less rental demand? I would assume there would be an increase in moving back in with mum and dad and share housing. What's your prediction? +The increase in cash rate will lead to higher cost of borrowing which will make us harder to take on mortgages to buy houses. On the other hand, the demand of houses may drop which may reduce the price of houses later next year. In this case, would it be easier or harder for us to get a house after the raise in cash rate ? +We could already be in a crash, and if the housing market is ever going to crash, what could the reasons be this time? A lot of people are still moving their money to a safer place, the real estate. It doesn't seem the demand has decreased. Are we ever going to see a crash in the housing market? +Hope this is ok to post here. I canā€™t think of a subreddit it would fall under. + +I have a lot of friends and family relationships that are very strong. I hear all the time about people getting harassed by friends and family for money. I donā€™t ever have that experience. No one asks me for anything. + +Is it true that you are constantly asked by friends and family for financial favours? Or is it blowing out of proportion? + +The only reason I can think of is that I go out of my way to help my friends and family get ahead. Maybe they already feel taken care of? + +Itā€™s more of a general curiosity thing. To be honest itā€™s something I think about pretty regularly and think to myself how lucky I am that my people arenā€™t chasing after me. + +Whatā€™s your experience with This? Maybe itā€™s just a few bad apples? +Hope this is ok to post here. I canā€™t think of a subreddit it would fall under. + +I have a lot of friends and family relationships that are very strong. I hear all the time about people getting harassed by friends and family for money. I donā€™t ever have that experience. No one asks me for anything. + +Is it true that you are constantly asked by friends and family for financial favours? Or is it blowing out of proportion? + +The only reason I can think of is that I go out of my way to help my friends and family get ahead. Maybe they already feel taken care of? + +Itā€™s more of a general curiosity thing. To be honest itā€™s something I think about pretty regularly and think to myself how lucky I am that my people arenā€™t chasing after me. + +Whatā€™s your experience with This? Maybe itā€™s just a few bad apples? +The other day there was a post about credit cards and which ones people like to carry. It got me thinking because I am on auto-pilot with my AmEx, but the Chase Sapphire Reserve is looking better. Without hitting every single difference or benefit, here's my head-to-head analysis of the two cards (which were the two favorites in that post). + +American Express Platinum + +* $200 in travel credits on one selected airline +* $15/mo Uber Cash, does not rollover each month +* Superior lounge access including the Centurion Lounges +* Points worth .01, unless you use them on your selected airline, then they are .015 +* $50 credit to Saks 5th Ave every 6 mos (Jan-Jun/Jul-Dec). +* $200 hotel credit for hotels booked through Amex +* Elite status with Marriot/Hilton +* $20/mo in digital entertainment, including audible.com +* Secondary car rental coverage and "ok" travel coverage + +Fee: $695 per year + $175 to add up to 3 additional users + +[Note, I am paying $550 per year for this card, and it is supposed to go up to $595 per year next year. I don't know why I qualify for the lower rate, maybe because I am an existing member? But the current advertised rate is $695.] + +Chase Sapphire Reserve (Visa) + +* $300 in travel credits, but much easier to use +* One year (only?) of Lyft Pink (15% off rides, etc). +* Lounge Access for Priority Pass locations only (less luxurious but there are lots of them). +* Points worth .015 +* Doordash subscription ($0 delivery fee, etc) +* Primary car rental coverage and great travel coverage + +Fee: $550 per year + $75 per an additional user + +Since I am a frequent traveler and near-future expat, one thing that is important for me is that the card be accepted widely out of the United States, which AmEx is not (they both have no foreign transaction fees though) ... that said, there's no question the lounge access is better with AmEx and, I think, the customer service is better too. I am not, however, fond of big chain hotels. So AmEx's hotel benefit is not really appealing and I cannot remember the last time I set foot in a Saks Fifth Avenue. The Uber benefit through AmEx is nice, but it's a use-it-or-lose-it benefit and that's annoying, and the similar digital entertainment benefit is a pretty weak draw too (aside from aubible.com, but I don't listen to that many eBooks). I was also surprised that travel coverage with AmEx was much less attractive, aside from the allegedly "no limit" evacuation overage, Chase had much better offerings. + +In sum, I was really surprised at how Chase Sapphire Reserve was eating AmEx's lunch. The AmEx card seems increasingly overpriced and stodgy to me now, and you clearly have to work harder to get the benefits to offset the annual fee whereas the Chase card seems much more flexible and user-friendly, and it's easier to rack up points (e.g., 3x points at restaurants and travel worldwide, and regardless of how you book the travel, through Chase or directly), which themselves seem more valuable. + +So, am I missing something? Is the Centurion Lounge access really worth it at $695 a year? Is Chase's customer service really not on par with AmEx? I'm wondering, quite frankly, why I should keep the AmEx and/or why anyone would prefer the AmEx over the Chase card (unless, of course, you value the hotel benefits too). +Just in case you're waiting for an official recession to be announced before making moves - this happens with a large delay, of a year, sometimes even more than that. I mean the way it works is as follows: + +1. The economy goes into a recession, but NBER is quiet +2. A \~year passes, or more +3. The NBER announces, at some point, that we've been in a recession for the past year, we just didn't know it then. But now we know. + +Past announcements with dates: [https://imgur.com/a/iAYFbih](https://imgur.com/a/iAYFbih) + +The same applies to recoveries from a recession. +Hi all if your mum sold property and gave you any figure between to Ā£250k to 300k to buy a home for you to own and live in (not rental) would you have to pay tax on this? I know you would if she dies within 7 years of giving it to you but what about whilst she is alive? +So iā€™ve seen a ton of posts here asking about mortgages and my experience has not necessary matched what iā€™ve read so i figured i would post this. + +Iā€™ve seen a lot here saying i would need to do some complicated strategy like trusts or annuities, PALs or margin loans (still not opposed to margin). this turned out to not be needed, hence why iā€™m here. + +First like many of you i tried to get a traditional mortgage from a big bank. i still had income but it was not the type of income that qualifies for a mortgage. so deep into the process with wells fargo i ended up getting turned down. i tried a few others like bank of america and they told me there were no big banks that would give one to me. + +at this point i started calling everyone imaginable because i was close to the deadline of needing it. where i finally had luck was with Chase bank and a few credit unions though iā€™m sure there are more. + +when everyone keeps saying they canā€™t get a mortgage because of lack of income itā€™s because they are applying to a bank that only seems to offer income based mortgages which most are. Chase however also offers asset based mortgages. the formula was basically to take 70% of your liquid asset value and divide that by 360 or however many monthly payments the loan will be. this qualifies as your monthly income now. normal debt to income ratios apply from here but if you have enough assets this can get you mortgages in the multi millions without traditional income. combine that with a million dollar asset transfer to chase to bring the rate down and iā€™m looking at a mortgage of whatever value i need in the 2-3% range depending on the type. the assets used to qualify are not even at risk and you can keep them as is. + +the credit union i talked to offered something similar with even less required assets (3 years payment) but the rate was higher so i chose chase. + +hopefully this helps some of you out there looking for the same thing. +So iā€™ve seen a ton of posts here asking about mortgages and my experience has not necessary matched what iā€™ve read so i figured i would post this. + +Iā€™ve seen a lot here saying i would need to do some complicated strategy like trusts or annuities, PALs or margin loans (still not opposed to margin). this turned out to not be needed, hence why iā€™m here. + +First like many of you i tried to get a traditional mortgage from a big bank. i still had income but it was not the type of income that qualifies for a mortgage. so deep into the process with wells fargo i ended up getting turned down. i tried a few others like bank of america and they told me there were no big banks that would give one to me. + +at this point i started calling everyone imaginable because i was close to the deadline of needing it. where i finally had luck was with Chase bank and a few credit unions though iā€™m sure there are more. + +when everyone keeps saying they canā€™t get a mortgage because of lack of income itā€™s because they are applying to a bank that only seems to offer income based mortgages which most are. Chase however also offers asset based mortgages. the formula was basically to take 70% of your liquid asset value and divide that by 360 or however many monthly payments the loan will be. this qualifies as your monthly income now. normal debt to income ratios apply from here but if you have enough assets this can get you mortgages in the multi millions without traditional income. combine that with a million dollar asset transfer to chase to bring the rate down and iā€™m looking at a mortgage of whatever value i need in the 2-3% range depending on the type. the assets used to qualify are not even at risk and you can keep them as is. + +the credit union i talked to offered something similar with even less required assets (3 years payment) but the rate was higher so i chose chase. + +hopefully this helps some of you out there looking for the same thing. +My wife and I bought our first house. + +By the way, I am super embarrassed by this, so please donā€™t judge. + +We bought an old house and started renovating it. We demolished the bathroom, scraped the pop corn ceilings, torn up base boards and sanded the floors. The house now is in a pretty shitty condition with an unfinished bathroom. We are planning on finishing it, but the house is not really livable. + +On top of that, the roof started leaking. +On top of that, I started having severe depression and canā€™t work (remotely). + +The house price was 171k in April and thatā€™s what we got the mortgage for. We owe 120k to the mortgage company. +After doing some electrical and plumbing, we have now 10k in our reno budget. + +There is also a 20k emergency fund. + +I feel like reroofing the house is a priority but it costs 10k. + +We make 90k. + +Please, donā€™t judge. My wife and I lost a pregnancy before the purchase and were in really wrong place to buy a house mentally. +So last week we had some of the worst days we have seen on the markets since COVID hit. Reddit was full of panic sellers, in-experienced traders and a sea of red on every ticker. + +I was reading so many comments about the market going down another 10%- 15% i read you should have 50% of your money in cash blah blah blah - the fact is no one knows what the 'market is going to do' + +&#x200B; + +today is one of the best days in the past 12 months if you were decided to continued with the 'wait and see' approach you would of missed out on the massive green wave. + +&#x200B; + +always remember ā€œit's not about timing the market, but about time in the marketā€ + +&#x200B; + +I hope you all had a great day on the market God bless! +Guess itā€™s bad news for emergency funds; will it have the required impact? + +UK interest rates cut in emergency move https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51831004 +relatively new to investing, most of my holdings are either up/down 2-3% in the past few months. This is pretty typical. + +My tech holdings (like TEC) however, are down like 8%. Why is tech being killed rn? Is this too small of a sample size to know? When / what needs to happen for it to trend in the right direction again? +It has been up 6x since 2010 and about doubled since a year ago. Itā€™s financials and earnings are so good and as a renewable play has a bright future for the next decades. Who here owns this stock ? +I'm a crypto YouTuber, and content writer, but before you start throwing rocks at me and call me a shill, I teach people how to build and test cryptocurrency trading algorithms as a means of automating their trading strategies, or simply to experiment with algo trading in a safe, testing environment. + +Some of you may have seen my previous posts, where I open source entire projects and share them with the community if I feel like they could add value to you guys. I like doing it and it makes feel good that you guys appreciate the content so much. + +Because everything that I build is open source and available for everyone, the only way that I've been able to monetise my passion is by becoming a YouTube partner, and monetising my videos. + +I don't make a huge amount, but enough to keep me hopeful that one day, it will grow and actually make a difference. + +Here's a video I just made explaining the whole thing in more detail. I'm also using that video to raise awareness against the corrupted mess that is YouTube so if you feel like helping, feel free to share this video with other people who might not understand just how destructive these corporations are for the freedom of our Internet: [**https://youtu.be/VRJXvJnUWV8**](https://youtu.be/VRJXvJnUWV8) + +I've recently received an e-mail from Google telling me that my Adsense account has been cancelled. For those that don't know, without an adsense account, you can't get paid by YouTube. So while I'm still technically in the YouTube Partners Program, I will never be able to see any income from it. + +They haven't sent a warning, started in investigation, or asked me anything prior to that. This is literally all the information that they have given me: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/sba6q2jv3xb81.png?width=629&format=png&auto=webp&s=882822e4b75bd9d9ec128a6bb63f393a91c916ce + +I have appealed this decision, and got back a dry response, saying that my adsense account will not be re-instated. + +I know I'm not the first, and sadly won't be the last crypto YouTuber to be cancelled by google without any prior explanation. + +I've spent hours reading their terms and conditions, and it doesn't seem that Google was ever in the right with this, making this a breach of contract. + +I was always for the idea of a decentralised internet and social media, but I never realised before how much we need it, and how valuable freedom and justice truly are as given by the blockchain and decentralisation. + +I hope that my experience has given you the extra fuel you needed to want to search for alternative decentralised solutions in favour of the established tech giants who don't care about anything but their own obscene profits. + +&#x200B; + +**EDIT:** + +**For those wanting to see proof of demonetisation and that there is no invalid traffic coming into my youtube channel:** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/gt461bl0bxb81.png?width=398&format=png&auto=webp&s=f749caec3e9c4ecf7e61124f82f7887c714d6c8e + +And here are the analytics for the period that my monetisation started, showing no artificial or fraudulent traffic: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qg4owscgbxb81.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc86426b9765ae1b200de72fbb75a8f2af49a7af + +And here are more analytics explaining this traffic: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ojvf749mbxb81.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad79ef279207be857b1ff22081f1f10f3e19c967 +You guys are fucking hilarious. When weā€™re all hyping up a useless stock like ā€œyeah here we go baby, MOON BY TONIGHT šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€ā€ The humor here is just great and Iā€™ve enjoyed my time here learning about pennystocks. If anyone cares what led me to pennystocks Iā€™ll give a rundown. I woke up one morning down 200 dollars on GAN so I was like fuck I need to compensate my lost right now and I found pennystocks. Hopped on the GNUS hype train and made 1100 in 10 minutes. Hit my stop limit so I got my money, decided to buy back in on the dip, it was successful about 800 more in another 5-10 minutes, this time I didnā€™t put a stop limit because I was like oh itā€™s just a 5 minute drive to work it wonā€™t drop by then. Got to work, down about a million dollars. Panic sold around 7 dollars, bought back in at 6, continued to drop lost more money then sold again absolutely devastated plus got myself pattern day trade banned on robinhood. Luckily I didnā€™t learn my lesson because I instantly saw some guy in the GNUS megathread say, GNUS dead lets go XSPA MOON MOON MOON šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€. I bought XSPA at 1.79 and it dropped like 20 cents causing me to hate myself even more but then sold the next morning just under 3 bucks recovering everything I lost from GNUS and about 400 profit. I lucked the hell out but I can never handle the stress of a pennystock again lol. I salute you all and good luck. I will lurk here for the humor. +Hey there, lately I've been having thoughts about my long term goals. One of my long term goals has been to achieve my financial Independence so I put myself on a path of saving money every year and putting that into some investment platforms such as betterment in order to hopefully achieve a 6% yearly return. For reference I'm 27. I've been doing the math on that path and it'll take about 30 years to hit my financial Independence goal. + + I'm having a hard time justifying that savings goal of in going to be 57 before I can achieve it. I've considered lowering my yearly goal so I can get out more and life my young life more, make new experiences and that would certainly require more money. Have any you felt the same way? +Howā€™s this for FUD; Iā€™m **bored**, **tired**, **impatient**, **frustrated** and occasionally **doubtful**. As I watch my parents age and feel the fire of mortality on my asscheeks, I wonder if I should take my GME gains and start another venture so at *least* they can buy a house to retire in. Captain Hook has long been a pile of reptile shit and Tick-Tock the Croc is back on the clock. + +Thereā€™s only *one* thing that could make me feel worse about this whole situation and that would be **SELLING**! Itā€™s painful even to consider. The thing hedgies want most is the last thing Iā€™d consider a *solution* to my problems. Funny how that backfired on them eh? + +There is, however, a *long* list of things that make me feel *better*: + +**1.** **BUYING MORE** šŸ˜… Every time I buy more it unlocks a new level on my favorite mobile game, *Calculator*. + +**2.** GME *consistently* **dips** on *good news*. (Who *didnā€™t* see todayā€™s dip coming after announcing west coast fulfillment?) This shit is all the confirmation bias I *need* to see we are **right**. + +**3.** GameStopā€™s constant improvement with customers, their website, product expansion, etc. (watch what we do, not what we say) + +**4.** **THE VIDEO GAME & TECH INDUSTRY**. This is the future of entertainment and convenience. Itā€™s everything. We know it, RC knows it. Barring an apocalyptic, grid-destroying event- this shit ainā€™t goinā€™ nowhere and itā€™s only going to get better and better. If you know, you know. + +**5.** And finally you fucking **APES**. Who knew there were so many *decent* degenerates in the world? How could I leave this community? Why would I subtract this level of chaotic positivity from my life? I canā€™t afford to. + +**Isnā€™t it ironic? Donā€™t ya think?** + +Every SINGLE tactic SHFs have used and continue to use to shake us off does *exactly* the opposite. Itā€™s an infuriating and hilarious dance. + +If GME had slowly climbed from $40 with little bumps on good news I probably would have believed shorts had covered bc the stock was behaving somewhat normally. I probably still would have invested, but not as heavily and with such conviction. *They. Fucked. Up.* + +We are *pacified* by the shares we buy during the dips they hope will shake us. + +We are *emboldened* by downward movement on positive news. + +The serpent continues devouring its tail in a negative feedback loop unwittingly optimized for apes šŸ™‚ + +Itā€™s amazing what people can adapt to and Iā€™m adapting to this. I can buy and hodl *indefinitely*, letā€™s see who runs out of money first. + +šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€ +šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€ +šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€ +I don't know much about stocks. I work in healthcare, where money is no object and there's always a shortage of everything. But I know how psychology works, and when people attack and get defensive, something is being hidden. + +FUD attacks on retail investors and specific individuals (I love you u/dlauer, fuck the FUD). MSM shouting form the rooftops that there is no recession and it couldn't happen ever ever ever and they're more bullish than ever (eat poop, Cramer). There's something abut denial and aggression that gives me more confirmation than ever that GME is the safest place for my money right now. + +SPY and QQQ hitting 52 week lows with GME sitting well above the $80 low earlier this year. Options chain looking spicy. Impending NFT marketplace. Vote-affirmed stock dividend. I cannot wait to be right. + +Every naysayer, every YouTube grifter, every friend that said I was stupid and didn't know shit about the market. Even my wife who is still slowly coming around. + +I can't wait to be right, to come out on top, and to be the change I want to see the world over. + +We're getting close friends, stay zen. +if you wondering why we going downside its because they are using all the tools they have to push this price as much as they can because of HUUUGE amount of opinions OTM equivalent to 50mln shares. Ortex data shows that the borrow what they can to push it hard, + + +https://preview.redd.it/a2tcfrpccgc81.png?width=1732&format=png&auto=webp&s=1efc71e89ae396689168726cf5bf25194b4709fd + +Utlization of 85% 13mln shares on loan. + + +Today they also almost empty the ETF from shares and borrow another 100k + + +https://preview.redd.it/23yosx2lcgc81.png?width=1106&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1748e2170f39940aa071b8d64936d836bcbfdc6 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xlftujrocgc81.png?width=1731&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f7a61838c91442e88262950f9b76fb6044abf91 + + +4 days. We need to push it for 4days, Hard days. but we will make it. HODL +The shills and excessively smooth brained have conditioned you to think MOASS will be a sudden, one time event, and everything will snap back to reality abruptly. You think Ryan issues a NFT dividend, we ascend into the stars, the price comes crashing back down to earth and our favorite store survives. + +Except Ryan is using Gamestop to change several different aspects of life. A marketplace where digital media can have supply based value (and resale value) is only the beginning. Shifting investments to the blockchain will prove so successful for protecting Gamestop from malicious shorting attacks, it will spread. We will see a new parallel to the NYSE in the marketplace Gamestop designs. One where every share must be accounted for at the moment of sale. Gamestop will host the largest investment marketplace in the world. One not limited to individual countries segregated markets. + +But thats not all... I think these are just preliminary steps toward Gamestop developing the Oasis as anyone who has seen the film Ready Player One knows it as. A digital world where you can bring all of your digital assets and utilize them at your will. Assets can be used across platforms. One day these micro-transactions in our games will get you assets beyond just that one game, but instead you can take them anywhere. This world and its economy will explode in a similar magnitude to crypto, creating a digital work environment, and a massive opportunity at growth. + +Gamestop isnt going from 6$ -> 69,420,000 -> 20$ + +Berkshire hathaway is an investment firm working inside the marketplace. Gamestop will BE the marketplace in this new era. Stop comparing them to Amazons retail value... we are blowing past that. Past the value of the entire portfolio of wall street. We are heading toward managing a globally accessible, digital economy... the US dollar in its entirety is maybe the closest thing to the size we are looking at. Even that is a modest comparison. + +Guys, Gamestop isnt stopping at the moon. Ryan has prepared a layover for those who get scared by their first trip in space and need a little bit to collect themselves, but the rest of us already have tickets to Alpha Centauri and beyond. + +Imagine thinking you are the champion that sold all of your shares at the peak of 69,420,000, just to watch gamestop shares become the gold standard in the new economy. Dont kid yourself about buying back in on the backside guys. There wont be a backside to this trip. + +Knowing this, it occurs to me that every single Sunday evening such as now, I can relish in the deserved hype coming just hours away. + +Edit: not going to call you out individually, but I see both the shills AND the excessively retarded found their way to my post. I appreciate when you put the makeup on yourselves šŸ¤” +I am 28 years old and just finished my fifth year of teaching this past June. I had approximately $28k in subsidized and unsubsidized loans through one servicer and $3k in Perkins Loans through another. + +The Perkins Loans were deferred and subsequently cancelled by 15% increments each year until the fifth year of teaching was completed where the remaining balanced was cancelled all together. The other $28k in loans were deferred for the past five years since I was still attending school for my master's and now currently for my doctorate in education. After the end of this past school year, I applied for the Teacher Loan Forgiveness for $17,500 and was pleasantly surprised today when I saw my loan balance drop to around $11k. I decided to make a one time payment from my savings account and be done with it all for good. + +Luckily I have been able to pay the master's and doctorate as I attend school without taking out additional loans. + +It feels like a huge daunting weight has been lifted. I am so very excited to start saving for a home and starting the next phase of my life debt free! + + + + +Using CNBC as I'm not seeing a better source at the moment. + +https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/deutsche-bank-warns-of-global-time-bomb-coming-due-to-rising-inflation.html + +Inflation may look like a problem that will go away, but is more likely to persist and lead to a crisis in the years ahead, according to a warning from Deutsche Bank economists. + +In a forecast that is well outside the consensus from policymakers and Wall Street, Deutsche issued a dire warning that focusing on stimulus while dismissing inflation fears will prove to be a mistake if not in the near term then in 2023 and beyond. + +The analysis especially points the finger at the Federal Reserve and its new framework in which it will tolerate higher inflation for the sake of a full and inclusive recovery. The firm contends that the Fedā€™s intention not to tighten policy until inflation shows a sustained rise will have dire impacts. + +ā€œThe consequence of delay will be greater disruption of economic and financial activity than would be otherwise be the case when the Fed does finally act,ā€ Deutscheā€™s chief economist, David Folkerts-Landau, and others wrote. ā€œIn turn, this could create a significant recession and set off a chain of financial distress around the world, particularly in emerging markets.ā€ + +As part of its approach to inflation, the Fed wonā€™t raise interest rates or curtail its asset purchase program until it sees ā€œsubstantial further progressā€ toward its inclusive goals. Multiple central bank officials have said they are not near those objectives. + +In the meantime, indicators such as the consumer price and personal consumption expenditures price indices are well above the Fedā€™s 2% inflation goal. Policymakers say the current rise in inflation is temporary and will abate once supply disruptions and base effects from the early months of the coronavirus pandemic crisis wear off. + +The Deutsche team disagrees, saying that aggressive stimulus and fundamental economic changes will present inflation ahead that the Fed will be ill-prepared to address. + +ā€œIt may take a year longer until 2023 but inflation will re-emerge. And while it is admirable that this +patience is due to the fact that the Fedā€™s priorities are shifting towards social goals, neglecting inflation leaves global economies sitting on a time bomb,ā€ Folkerts-Landau said. ā€œThe effects could be devastating, particularly for the most vulnerable in society.ā€ + +Most on the Street see tame inflation +To be sure, the Deutsche position is not widely held by economists. + +Most on Wall Street agree with the Fedā€™s view that current inflation pressures are transitory, and they doubt there will be any policy changes soon. + +Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said there are ā€œstrong reasonsā€ to support the position. One he cites is the likelihood that the expiration of enhanced unemployment benefits will send workers back to their jobs in the coming months, easing wage pressures. + +On price pressures in general, Hatzius said that much of current spike is being driven by ā€œthe unprecedented role of outliersā€ that will ebb and bring levels back closer to normal. + +ā€œAll this suggests that Fed officials can stick with their plan to exit only very gradually from the easy current policy stance,ā€ Hatzius wrote. + +That will be a mistake, according to the Deutsche view. + +Congress has approved more than $5 trillion in pandemic-related stimulus so far, and the Fed has nearly doubled its balance sheet, through monthly asset purchases, to just shy of $8 trillion. The stimulus continues to come through even with an economy that is expected to grow at about a 10% pace in the second quarter and an employment picture that has added an average 478,000 jobs a month in 2021. + +ā€œNever before have we seen such coordinated expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. This will continue as output moves above potential,ā€ Folkers-Landau said. ā€œThis is why this time is different for inflation.ā€ + +The Deutsche team said the coming inflation could resemble the 1970s experience, a decade during which inflation averaged nearly 7% and was well into double digits at various times. Soaring food and energy prices along with the end of price controls helped push that eraā€™s soaring inflation. + +Then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker led the effort to squash inflation then, but needed to use dramatic interest rate hikes that triggered a recession. The Deutsche team worries that such a scenario could play out again. + +ā€œAlready, many sources of rising prices are filtering through into the US economy. Even if they are transitory on paper, they may feed into expectations just as they did in the 1970s,ā€ they said. ā€œThe risk then, is that even if they are only embedded for a few months they may be difficult to contain, especially with stimulus so high.ā€ + +The firm said interest rate hikes could ā€œcause havoc in a debt-heavy world,ā€ with financial crises likely particularly in emerging economies where growth wonā€™t be able to overcome higher financing costs. +&#x200B; + +[wut doing robinhood? ](https://preview.redd.it/zrcr0z8oioj71.png?width=1628&format=png&auto=webp&s=7821458e36f93b7b5a95585e6119224f4b41bf94) + +I'm not sure what could've caused the issue. I'm not using any margin, I have more than enough cash to pay the $75 fee, I've owned the shares that I'm transferring for several months (GME since January), no open options. + +So far, I've reached out to Robinhood via email for an explanation but i wonder what excuse they'll give me. +Looking for a play into NA renewables - exposure to generation but also supply chain. Been looking at AQN, BEP, BLDP, and RNW and a few American companies including EIX, FSLR and AES. + +Any thoughts on a clean energy ETF focused on US/CAN instead of picking individual winners or losers? I've been looking at iShares CLN but it is focused on the global renewables market rather than NA specifically. +https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadianInvestor/comments/kj2uu8/some_noob_dd_for_some_interesting_canadian/ + +(Link is deleted now, but I posted this when PyroGenisis was around $3/share and HPQ was around 85c.) +**Here's the deleted post** +>Some noob DD from me. I think these stocks are a great long term hold. Don't use this as advice, do your own DD. Informative purposes only + +>I've been looking at PyroGenesis (PYR.TO) ever since they announced they were looking to uplist on NASDAQ. PyroGenesis Canada Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and commercializes advanced plasma processes and systems in Canada and internationally. They are involved in Metals, Waste management, Innovation & Custom Process development (HPQ-Silicon), Plasma Torches (see previous DD by /u/Greasyfork + +>Two of their main products piqued my interest- + +>1)- Plasma torches + +>These plasma torches are an environmentally friendly alternative to using fossil fuels in the Iron Pelletization industry. Currently PyroGenesis is the only company that has a patent for such a process in the industry. + +>Just recently, they announced they had a contract with a major iron ore supplier equaling $3.6M + +>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pyrogenesis-signs-initial-plasma-torch-213000493.html >https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pyrogenesis-signs-additional-1-1mm-133500724.html + +>It also mentions there that "The Client, which has committed to reduce its greenhouse gas (ā€œGHGā€) emissions, has over ten (10) plants, each possibly requiring up to 50 plasma torches." - That's approx $500-600M future revenue that the client has committed to purchase exclusively from PyroGenesis. PyroGenesis will also be providing after sale services to this client for additional revenue + +>That is just ONE contract with one company. Expect many more contracts over the years as more companies decide to ditch fossil fuels and go with a more green solution + +>2- Innovation & Custom Process development (HPQ-Silicon) + +>That brings to the second company on my radar, HPQ Silicon Resources (HPQ.V, OTC:URAGF) They are involved in the exploration, mining, and production of silicon metals, solar grade silicon metals, and porous silicon wafers. + +>A few months ago, PyroGenesis & HPQ Silicon signed an agreement to develop The PUREVAPTM NSiR process. Once up and runing, HPQ NANO can deliver to advanced materials companies and battery manufacturers a cost competitive, tailor-made product, that can replace graphite in batteries and thereby allow the deployment of truly powerful next generation Li-ion batteries + +>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hpq-silicon-pyrogenesis-sign-nano-170500452.html + +>PyroGenesis then sold the IP rights of the PUREVAPā„¢ NSiR process which included a 10% royalty for any sales which PyroGenesis can convert into a 50% ownership of HPQ + +>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pyrogenesis-signs-3m-contract-hpq-174600535.html + +>Before they even started any production, they already have an order for the material from a major Car manufacturer + +>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hpq-nano-receives-first-order-190300952.html + +>And earlier today, they announced that their first reactor has been commissioned and is ready to start production. + +>https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hpq-nano-reaches-major-milestones-141000141.html + +Since that post- there have been a number of developments- PyroGenesis stock price is now at $7.7ish (peak of $12) (which IMO is a great buy-in point) & HPQ price is around $1.1 (peak of ~$1.6) + +January 12- they announced implementation of a NCIB- When the company thinks their share price is undervalued, they can opt to buy back some shares thus reducing supply & increasing value for shareholders +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pyrogenesis-announces-implementation-ncib-133500312.html + +Jan 21- HPQ announced that their Gen1 Nano Silicon Reactor Exceeds Expectations +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pyrogenesis-announces-implementation-ncib-133500312.html + +Feb 02- PyroGenesis filed form 40-f with the SEC +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pyrogenesis-files-form-40-f-204300768.html + +Feb 18- Nasdaq application all but approved +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pyrogenesis-provides-listing-application-nasdaq-192500547.html + +Last time the market had a bit of a correction (Feb 23) and the stock price went from around $11 to $7ish, the company put put a press release specifically stating that everything was on track, no financing planned, company has cash, etc + +Yesterday, they announced a new appointment to the board of directors-Mr. Ben Naccarato who has over 30 years of experience in the sector. BUT what I found interesting was tucked away at the end of the press release- + +"Separately, the Company is pleased to announce today that it has entered into a lease agreement for an additional 31, 632 sq. ft. which will almost double its existing manufacturing footprint in Montreal, QC, Canada." + +So they are planning on doubling their manufacturing capability +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pyrogenesis-pleased-announce-appointment-mr-212000379.html + +All in all, I think this is a very good long term investment- they are the only leaders in the Plasma industry and they have 2 (other) products that I havent mentioned, they are the only non-US based company to have their equipment on US navy aircraft carriers and have a lot of other things going for them + +As always, I am not a financial advisor, I just like the stock. do you own DD +[https://grizzlyreports.com/Research/WELL%20Report.pdf](https://grizzlyreports.com/Research/WELL%20Report.pdf) + +Haven't heard much about Grizzly Research before, any one know how credible their research is? +So everyone is speculating about the EOM announcement of BBBY and at this point any positive announcement could ignite the fire and we could easily see $30+ prices. + +Some people say that the announcement will be bankruptcy. I kind of doubt it. + +Do companies make a planned public announcement where they announce bankruptcy? Don't they just silently file for bankruptcy and let people know it from the news? + +Also, there is the recent 8k filing... + +I see 3 possible outcomes: + +1 - They announce bankruptcy. In this case I announce bankruptcy as well after ordering a rope from Amazon. + +2 - They announce some neutral bullshit blahblah. This means that they are not going bankrupt right now, but somewhere in the near future, so we are fucked. + +3 - They announce spinoff of Buybuy Baby. This means rockets and watermelon fucking. + +What are your bets? + +Position: 250 @ 16 +anyone planning on wheeling this sweet momma? all the pundits say that a stock split is an optical move--- to make the shares *seem* more affordable. + +And perhaps im missing the logistics, but doesnt a stock split technically make the wheel strategy much cheaper? premiums will be slashed, of course, but the company--- which im bullish on--- still has the same growth potential. +On Monday opening bell, i opened a NVDA 280/270 put credit spread for $1.00 credit. NVDA proceeded to drop 6.75% on the same day and close at around 281 share price. + +At this point i was really kicking myself for going against trend and putting too much trust in Powell. However, i had faith in NVDA and decided to turn my put spread into a CSP and loaded money into my account to take assignment for the 100 NVDA shares at 280. As a result, i would sell my 270 protective put at open the next day. + +On Tuesday open, NVDA dropped another 2% and i immediately sold the 270 put for $5.00 credit. I had originally paid 0.80 for them so i made a ā€œprofitā€ of $4.20. + +Including the premium for the NVDA 280 put sold at $1.80, i have effectively collected a total premium of $6.00 allowing me to reduce the cost basis of my NVDA assignment to $274 a share. NVDA closed slightly green at $283.37 at the end of Tuesday. Whatever happens during the FOMC is anybodyā€™s guess. + +I would like to get peopleā€™s opinion on whether is this an ingenious way to play CSP/put spreads or is it just a fluke and i would get destroyed if NVDA tanks another 10% this week while i have sold away my protective put. + +Thank you and hope my English is not too confusing to understand. Virgin postā€¦. + +Edit: forgot to indicate that it was a put CREDIT spread. + +Edit2: I wanted to know if thereā€™s a name for this strategy so that I could search and read up more abt it. + +Edit3: even though it seems (is) like gambling to double down on a losing trade, by selling my long leg and increasing the premium collected from $1 -> $6, i now have more room for manoeuvre. The extra $6 collected can go towards offsetting any losses incurred if NVDA close between $280-$270. If NVDA close on Friday way below $270, then it is indeed a bad move to remove my protective leg. + +Edit4: closed the position at ard 0900 EST before jpow spoke. Closed my short leg when nvda was up 1% to take a $260usd loss. Including my profit from the long leg, total profit is $160USD. Definitely not worth it for the huge risk. Glad to make it out alive. + +Closed before jpow spoke as I made it out with more than what I targeted initially ($100 profit on the spread). Thanks all for your comments :) +My poverty temporarily broke me today. I recently lost my job and was lucky enough to get a new one but my bills were due and I didnā€™t know what to do. So I started a fundraiser and I was so happy when my friends actually supported me. I was able to raise 160$ I was so happy. But now the check from the fundraiser is taking forever to process and my bills are pulling. Iā€™m getting charged more in overdraft fees than what I raised so itā€™s like Iā€™m so poor I canā€™t ever get ahead. Not even if I move heaven and earth to raise money it doesnā€™t matter because something always comes up and takes it from me. Iā€™m just so tired. I just want to work but that will take forever to get my first paycheck. Just so broken by money. + +Edit: I am a lot calmer now thanks everyone. Just had that overdraft PTSD panic attack. Iā€™ll keep at it Iā€™ll let you guys know when I get that first paycheck. My old job sucked thatā€™s why I have no savings and post in poverty finance lol but this new job will pay me 2 dollars more an hour to start :) canā€™t wait thanks for the support everyone + +Update: money finally cleared so at least I wonā€™t over draft anymore. Right before the other bills pulled too, so things arenā€™t that bad. Thanks again everyone. + +More update: wow this post blew up thanks for the karma. Some one said to make a Venmo so I did + @KPacheco-55 +That should make things faster next time + +Thanks for everyone that reached out really made me feel connected and way less alone. Great advice everyone I tried to keep up with comments. thanks to anyone i missed +There's been speculation that the reason GameStop has been so aggressively shorted in recent weeks is to make SHF's year end accounts look more palatable to investors. + +Citadel's $65 billion in liabilities for securities sold and not yet purchased looks a lot better if the stock price ends this year 50% lower than at the end of 2021 even though in reality the hole they've been digging has just gotten a fuck load deeper. + +Today is the last trading day of 2022 and I fully expect them to throw everything they've got in an attempt to tank the price. + +But guess what fuckers, I ain't done buying yet. I've paid over $200 for GameStop shares back in 2021 so buying them when they're under $80 pre-split feels like an absolute no brainer. + +They want me to forget GameStop. They want me to sell now and ask questions later. They want me to think DRS isn't working. That's NEVER going to happen. + +Not everyone believes in MOASS, but I personally do. What really blows my mind though is that even if I'm wrong, I still can't think of any other stock that has a better longterm upside potential than GME especially when they start reporting positive earnings. Afterall, it's the only stock in the world that poses an idiosyncratic risk to the US financial markets. + +Today is Friday 30th December 2022 and no matter what happens to GME's price, I'm going to be buying more of my favourite stock. This is my belated Christmas gift to Ken Griffin, who by the way lied under oath. + +Because fuck 'em that's why. +Hi all, + +As the title says, I own a small 30 sq.m 1 bed in zone 4 London, which I got nearly 4 years ago in London for 215k. Since then I met my other half and we trying to sell it to move to a bigger place. Unfortunately trying to sell was difficult, it's been on the market for a year and thanks to COVID small flats with no garden are really out of fashion. People want spare bedrooms for offices and gardens plus there was a lot of talk that London was going to become a ghost town with everyone working from home forever - now we know that's not going to be the case but it's still impacting flat values. + +Luckily we've been fortunate enough to buy our next property without the need of having to sell my current one. We're about to move in February. I also have a consent to let from NatWest to rent the flat out (they don't require me moving to BTL mortgage, I've confirmed) and could be getting around 1,000 pcm in rent. Moving to BTL interest only is not an option, as I don't think I'll achieve the minimum 75% LTV for that. + +However, I've just received an offer for 210k and have a dilemma - should I sell it at a loss or rent it out and hopefully sell for a bit more in a couple of years? The other factor to consider is that we'll have to pay double stamp duty - I will of course try to sell it within 3 years to get it back, but rather have the money for the new place. I'm leaning towards selling it as my mortgage goes to variable in February, so this is a good time to sell and not pay ERC. Any thoughts are welcome. +Just bought an engagement ring for the first and hopefully only time. + +I'm aware that the jewelry/diamond industry is fairly unethical and corrupt, thus didn't really want to play my part in giving them any more money than they deserve. But I obviously don't want my significant other embarrassed to show off a cheap engagement ring to her friends ect. + +For background, I earn slightly above average for the UK and originally set myself an upper limit of Ā£1000. + +However, ended up spending significantly less as I would rather invest in our future (House, holidays...). Also purchased from an online-only retailer as I assumed rings on the high street would be marked up significantly. So hopefully, this doesn't backfire and the ring is of equal quality. + +Just thought I would ask and see how everyone else navigated, budgeted, and justified one of the biggest purchases they might ever make? + +&#x200B; + +(Ended up getting this: [https://www.thediamondstore.co.uk/aquamarine-070ct-and-diamond-9k-yellow-gold-ring-p3224c265.cfm](https://www.thediamondstore.co.uk/aquamarine-070ct-and-diamond-9k-yellow-gold-ring-p3224c265.cfm) and plan on proposing on NYE, cliche I know) +My husband and I got married during the pandemic and have been struggling to sell his flat which has a significant amount of equity in it (over Ā£300k). We need the equity to buy a family home and donā€™t really have time for the market to correct (people seem to want gardens in London at the moment and our two bed isnā€™t shifting). Is there a way for us to take some money out of the flat in order to progress with a house purchase? And would people recommend that as an option? Thanks! +eta: wow front page! (also please stop dissing my major-- lets see you get up on that stage with no mic and move people to tears singing in a language they don't know šŸ™ƒ ) + +okay so. as i stated in the title, I was just hired by a teen and twenty somethings mall store (stay golden šŸ˜‰) + +the store recently suffered a serious loss of employees due to poor pay, back to school, and not enough staffing (ironic eh) + +anyway i was hired as a sales lead but we have no store manager at the moment, so im basically acting as the sm. DM wants to train me to be a manager in October. + +i love the store itself, and my fellow employees are pretty damn cool, but the pay right now is so low and i had to drop out of college due to medical and financial issues this year. my bio parents both work in retail and say that as a store manager i should make $12-$15 per hour but like i said right now i make 36 cents above minimum wage + +i have a second job where i work far less hours but earn a dollar over minimum wage, so i would have to quit there if I would like to have a life in addition to a full time job at this store šŸ˜© + +my point is, how the hell do i go about getting paid more, if not now then soon? and i would love to get my fellow employees pay raises too, they've been really fucked over by the situation lately :( + +EDIT: ugh fuck it, i work at fucking p** s** guys. i had to quit school bc of a tank in my mental and physical health, which is what caused my financial demise. i cannot go back to school until i can pay off my UBill (completely unrelated to student loans) i was going to school for opera performance as a music major, which is what killed my mental health, but opera is what i love. im losin my parents insurance in the next few weeks bc im not a student anymore and that's a clause in my dads insurance thru his employer. minimum wage in my state of the us is $7.25, and i make $7.61. + +ive been reading all of your responses at work today and taking to the kid who is currently the part time asst manager (he was hired 2 wks before me, he's a freshman in college and he makes diddly squat also. he's helping me gather intel lol, i kinda feel like a spy with how much more ive figured out about our computer system than our dm, so im compiling some documents that particularly outline each store position to compare and contrast and then use during our conversation +thanks for all your help guys, if i can actually do something about my pay before manager training starts i could use the money really bad and i could use the benefits, I have a tumor in my nose that i badly need removed +I just bought a PC part for Ā£140, same shop is now selling for Ā£118. I'm pretty tempted to return and buy it again. Minimal effort for a decent saving. What lengths do you go to to ensure you get the most for your money? + +EDIT: I can't get a partial refund from the company, the advisor I spoke to told me to return and rebuy. I need the drive more than I need Ā£22 so I won't be doing that. +I just want to cry my heart out here and make people aware not to do same mistake. I lost 15k which was invested in Concordia healthcare. My mistake was first listening to all those analyst and bnn second when it was falling I tried to average down on it thinking it might jumps back. Third was I try to hold on it till they did reverse split of 300:1. I will stick my self to passive investing in future. Try to save more and meet the goals. + +Ps: I can probably save that amount again in a 6 month time line since me and my spouse both work in decent jobs. But, I will stick myself to passive investing and will keep balance portfolio. That lost tfsa contribution will always pinch me. +Just wanna say discover impressed me. I was pumping gas last night and my Discover credit card has been fading away so often it is not read by the machine. I called at 5 pm to see if they would mail me a new card. Explained how my address is now different because my one on paper is my home of record and Iā€™m in the military. I open my mailbox this morning 15 hours later and thereā€™s a new card in there. Their customer service has always been great but this is very impressive. + +On top of that, their HYSA offers a great rate, their credit cards offer good cash back for a non annual fee, free FICO credit score on their app, and when I had a student loan through them they used to pay me some money off my loan when I got good grades.. +I talk to my friends and they tell me they throw X amount into crypto to hold and I wish I could do the same. I've started having $5 taken out of each check and thrown into my crypto wallet. It's not much but it's better than not investing! + +Trust me it adds up, I get paid 2x a month and if you've seen the infamous 'I put 1k into crypto in 2018' post then know that $120 over the course of a year can easily become a solid chunk of change throughout the years. + +Anyone else have strategies that they do in order to invest small amounts into crypto when you're broke? +Hello Great Apes of the world! šŸ‘‹ + +As your DiamantenhƤnde idly HODL through the weekend, let us take 120 minutes to reflect on the journey we have been on. Last week we celebrated as a 5-million share offering was completed, giving an outstanding leadership team $1.7b to transform the company. GME was added to the Russell 1000 index, proving that it is not merely a 'meme stock'. SR-NSCC-2021-002 went into effect, increasing the pressure on the SHFs as they try to avoid margin calls. + +Today's thread is going to be a little different. DiamantenhƤnde usually runs until the 120 minute mark of the German market in 5-minute intervals. I will update this post every minute(!) with historical closing price data from each US-market trading day of the year so far, completing at the usual 120-minute mark. Join apes around the world as we re-experience the journey this year has brought in the stock we love. + +###šŸš€ Buckle Up! šŸš€ +*** + +- **It has been a long ride so far. We persist. We HODL. See you when the German market opens.** +- šŸŸ„ 25/06/2021: $209.51 / 175,50 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 24/06/2021: $212.31 / 177,93 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 23/06/2021: $219.34 / 183,81 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 22/06/2021: $220.40 / 184,59 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 21/06/2021: $200.37 / 168,18 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 18/06/2021: $213.82 / 180,24 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 17/06/2021: $223.59 / 187,70 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 16/06/2021: $222.97 / 185,85 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 15/06/2021: $222.50 / 183,47 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 14/06/2021: $229.44 / 189,48 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 11/06/2021: $233.34 / 192,70 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 10/06/2021: $220.39 / 181,05 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 09/06/2021: $302.56 / 248,45 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 08/06/2021: $300.00 / 246,47 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 07/06/2021: $280.01 / 230,14 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 04/06/2021: $248.36 / 204,13 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 03/06/2021: $258.18 / 212,84 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 02/06/2021: $282.24 / 231,15 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 01/06/2021: $249.02 / 203,86 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 28/05/2021: $222.00 / 182,09 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 27/05/2021: $254.13 / 208,46 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 26/05/2021: $242.56 / 198,93 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 25/05/2021: $209.43 / 170,92 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 24/05/2021: $180.01 / 147,34 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 21/05/2021: $176.79 / 145,16 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 20/05/2021: $170.49 / 139,44 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 19/05/2021: $168.83 / 138,69 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 18/05/2021: $180.67 / 147,79 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 17/05/2021: $180.60 / 148,59 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 14/05/2021: $159.92 / 131,68 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 13/05/2021: $164.50 / 136,20 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 12/05/2021: $144.79 / 119,93 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 11/05/2021: $146.92 / 120,95 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 10/05/2021: $143.22 / 117,99 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 07/05/2021: $161.11 / 132,46 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 06/05/2021: $161.01 / 133,50 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 05/05/2021: $159.48 / 132,83 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 04/05/2021: $160.73 / 133,76 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 03/05/2021: $162.20 / 134,49 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 30/04/2021: $173.59 / 144,42 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 29/04/2021: $176.19 / 145,35 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 28/04/2021: $178.58 / 147,21 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 27/04/2021: $177.77 / 147,06 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 26/04/2021: $168.93 / 139,82 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 23/04/2021: $151.18 / 124,95 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 22/04/2021: $151.17 / 125,80 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 21/04/2021: $158.51 / 131,71 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 20/04/2021: $158.53 / 131,74 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 19/04/2021: $164.37 / 136,54 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 16/04/2021: $154.69 / 129,10 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 15/04/2021: $156.44 / 130,72 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 14/04/2021: $166.53 / 139,01 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 13/04/2021: $140.99 / 117,98 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 12/04/2021: $141.09 / 118,43 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 09/04/2021: $158.36 / 133,06 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 08/04/2021: $170.26 / 142,88 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 07/04/2021: $177.97 / 149,92 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 06/04/2021: $184.50 / 155,41 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 05/04/2021: $186.95 / 158,23 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 01/04/2021: $191.45 / 162,52 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 31/03/2021: $189.82 / 161,88 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 30/03/2021: $194.46 / 165,94 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 29/03/2021: $181.30 / 154,05 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 26/03/2021: $181.00 / 153,47 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 25/03/2021: $183.75 / 156,05 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 24/03/2021: $120.34 / 101,86 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 23/03/2021: $181.75 / 153,52 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 22/03/2021: $194.49 / 162,99 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 19/03/2021: $200.27 / 167,65 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 18/03/2021: $201.75 / 169,28 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 17/03/2021: $209.81 / 175,09 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 16/03/2021: $208.17 / 174,90 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 15/03/2021: $220.14 / 184,59 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 12/03/2021: $264.50 / 221,26 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 11/03/2021: $260.00 / 217,01 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 10/03/2021: $265.00 / 222,22 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 09/03/2021: $246.90 / 207,53 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 08/03/2021: $194.50 / 164,11 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 05/03/2021: $137.74 / 115,60 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 04/03/2021: $132.35 / 110,61 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 03/03/2021: $124.18 / 103,05 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 02/03/2021: $118.18 / 97,78 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 01/03/2021: $120.40 / 99,94 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 26/02/2021: $101.74 / 84,28 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 25/02/2021: $108.73 / 89,43 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 24/02/2021: $91.71 / 75,35 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 23/02/2021: $44.97 / 37,01 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 22/02/2021: $46.00 / 37,81 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 19/02/2021: $40.59 / 33,50 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 18/02/2021: $40.69 / 33,65 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 17/02/2021: $45.94 / 38,14 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 16/02/2021: $49.51 / 40,94 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 12/02/2021: $52.40 / 43,23 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 11/02/2021: $51.10 / 42,12 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 10/02/2021: $51.20 / 42,25 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 09/02/2021: $50.31 / 41,52 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 08/02/2021: $60.00 / 49,78 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 05/02/2021: $63.77 / 52,93 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 04/02/2021: $53.50 / 44,71 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 03/02/2021: $92.41 / 76,75 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 02/02/2021: $90.00 / 74,76 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 01/02/2021: $225.00 / 186,44 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 29/01/2021: $325.00 / 267,75 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 28/01/2021: $193.60 / 159,75 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 27/01/2021: $347.51 / 287,13 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 26/01/2021: $147.98 / 121,66 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 25/01/2021: $76.79 / 63,24 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 22/01/2021: $65.01 / 53,40 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 21/01/2021: $43.03 / 35,37 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 20/01/2021: $39.12 / 32,29 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 19/01/2021: $39.36 / 32,42 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 15/01/2021: $35.50 / 29,40 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 14/01/2021: $39.91 / 32,85 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 13/01/2021: $31.40 / 25,82 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 12/01/2021: $19.95 / 16,34 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 11/01/2021: $19.94 / 16,40 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 08/01/2021: $17.69 / 14,48 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 07/01/2021: $18.08 / 14,74 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 06/01/2021: $18.36 / 14,88 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ© 05/01/2021: $17.37 / 14,12 ā‚¬ +- šŸŸ„ 04/01/2021: $17.25 / 14,08 ā‚¬ + + +*** +FAQ: To generate this data, I downloaded the historical data for GME from Yahoo Finance and matched it up with daily EUR -> USD exchange rate data. Every minute of DiamantenhƤnde Wochenend-Retrospektive adds another trading day's closing price. I created a simple C# application that automatically creates and updates the post using Reddit APIs. + +Many among the DiamantenhƤnde community are concerned about the well-being of the originator of the series, u/DerGurkenraspler. I also am worried, as I have tried to make contact many times and haven't received any response or seen any activity from him in nearly a month. I continue to reach out to DerGurkenraspler, but at this point I have no idea if or when he intends to resume updates. I will continue to serve as guest-host of the series in the meantime, but dearly hope that DerGurkenraspler is well and is able to return to us soon. + +DiamantenhƤnde isn't just a thread on Superstonk, it's a community that gathers daily to represent the many corners of this world who love this stock. We all love seeing the energy that people represent their varied homelands. Show your flags, share some culture, and unite around GME! +Many years ago I read an early retirement book called Cashing in on the American Dream: How to Retire at 35. That's what got me started on FI. But until recently, I really still liked my job. A few months ago my boss was replaced. The new guy started bringing in his old cohorts and I moved down the hierarchy. My dissatisfaction was less where I was on an org chart. More that I was continuously being excluded from any decision making. All the new people were coming from the same organization that they had worked at together for years (till they got purged from there during the financial crisis). So I gave notice that I was retiring last week. I know there are some that think not saying you are retiring is better but I have certain benefits paid out if I retire but lost if I just quit. The attitude adjustment on my new boss changed 180. Right now they couldnā€™t be nicer. They want me to stay part-time full-time whatever for several months. Iā€™m going to try part time for a few months. I guess I donā€™t have a particular question but want to give encouragement to those who never envision retiring early that being in a financially independent situation gives you options. +Iā€™ve noticed recently that some people have been asking about ā€œwhat to do nextā€ after saving an emergency fund, or have just cleared debt and wanting advice + +The flowchart and wiki are a good starting point for anyoneā€™s financial planning journey, but I thought I would post a more in-depth explanation about emergency funds to help people assess their own needs + +Now this is my opinion and what I say will not apply to everyone but hopefully this will help some people think about their own situation and help them set up an appropriate emergency fund for themselves + +Little disclaimer: None of the following is advice, it is purely for information purposes only and to serve as a prompt to think about this topic + +**What is an emergency fund?** + +An emergency fund is what it says, a fund to access in case of an emergency. What an emergency means depends on the person. A common example is if you lost your job, this will help cover expenditure until you get a new one. + +**Why should I have an emergency fund?** + +This is to cover any emergency or sudden expenditure you might need to cover. No one can predict the future, so by its nature you wouldnā€™t know you would need this fund until the event happens, then if you do not have the money to cover this, you may need to make a less than ideal financial decision. + +Examples include: + +Ā· You lose your job and it takes several months to find a new one + +Ā· Your car suddenly needs work and your insurance company do not offer a courtesy car, so you can use the emergency fund to cover your transport needs if needed + +Ā· A boiler might break in the winter and you need to replace it + +Ā· You get stranded abroad and need cash now to pay a plane ticket back home + +However, all these scenarios will have different price tags, with some being noticeably more expensive than the others + +**How much should I save for an emergency fund?** + +The rule of thumb is typically 3 to 6 months of essential expenditure. However, this does not mean 3 to 6 months would be enough, or it could be too much + +You will need to review your own circumstances and assess a few factors. Here are some questions you can ask yourself to assess what would be an appropriate amount: + +Ā· If you are currently employed, what is the economic climate like at the moment? With your current job, do you feel you have decent job security or are there some issues that you are aware of with the company + +Ā· If you were to lose your job, how quickly (realistically) would it take for you to get a new job + +This is important as if you are in niche industry or self-employed, it may take longer to get a new job to match your previous salary to keep meeting your expenditure. This means you should save as an emergency fund as much as you believe you would need to cover the X number of months to get a new job. This will help to ensure you do not have to rely on borrowing money, or using other assets in order to cover your day to day living + +Ā· Do you have any financial dependents? Are your partner/children/family members reliant on you to cover expenditure? + +Ā· How much of your expenditure could you cut if you needed to reduce your income? For example, any credit agreements where you are paying monthly payments, any services that have fixed notices or early exit fees that might apply, you might not be able to cut so would need to keep up these payments + +Some people could be in a position to take a lower paying job to meet essential expenditure so would not necessarily need as a high emergency fund. Some may also have family or friends that could help them if they do get into a tight situation, which will all factor into how much cash you should designate for this fund + +Some people may argue that holding funds as cash means you are losing out on possible growth you could gain from investing it. Holding funds as cash also means the ā€œpurchasing powerā€ of the funds may decrease over time due to the effects of inflation. + +However, I would argue that you should not view your emergency fund as an ā€œinvestmentā€ but as a foundation on which you build your financial security. You should not view your emergency fund as a means to ā€œcombat inflationā€ but to provide a financial safety net in the short term for unforeseen events. + +No one is going to get rich from the potential growth from a few months of expenditure, but you may have to pay more than you would need to in terms of fees, interest on loans or other costs by not having funds available when you need them + +**Where should I hold an emergency fund?** + +This depends on your risk appetite ā€“ but with an emergency fund you should hold the funds in a cash or cash-like investment so that there is no risk of losing value due to investment risk + +It is common to recommend an easy access account, such as a savings account in order to hold these funds. The wiki also suggests holding the funds in NS&I premium bonds as an alternative account. + +However, I feel this should come with an important warning ā€“ you cannot access the funds in Premium bonds instantly. What this means is, if you were to hold your entire emergency fund as Premium bonds, you run the risk that in a very time dependent emergency, you would not be able to access these funds to cover the costs + +Several websites report that NS&I have said it can take up to eight working days for money to be transferred to your bank account. If you search online, you will also find stories of this taking longer due to administration issues, and less people working in the office etc + +This is important, as if you have a genuine ā€œI need to pay this nowā€ emergency and if you cannot access your funds held in Premium bonds, then this is not going to serve your needs as an emergency fund. + +The counter argument is, if you are holding funds in an instant access account to ensure you have flexibility of access for these funds, you will have low or potentially no interest rates so you will be losing out in potential ā€œprizesā€ your funds could win if they are held in premium bonds. + +A compromise would be to have an emergency fund across more than one account. So, for example, say you have decided 6 months of expenditure would be an appropriate buffer, but you do not want to hold the full 6 months as cash. Instead, you could hold 2 months as cash, so that if any immediate need had to be covered you have the funds immediately available, and the remaining 4 months held in Premium bonds. + +This way, if an emergency arises, you could meet the need immediately and then submit a withdrawal from your premium bonds in order to top up your cash account. This means you shouldnā€™t be adversely affected if there was a delay to receiving the premium bonds funds since you have enough funds to cover yourself until your Premium bonds withdrawal arrives in your account. + +\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* + +I hope this post is helpful for people and please feel free to add any additional points or considerations in the comments. + +*Edit:* + +A couple of people have commented about using credit cards for small scale emergencies and then paying off the bill once you receive the funds from a ā€œnot instant accessā€ account which holds their emergency fund/savings + +So to clarify a bit, I did not include the use of credit as an ā€œemergency fundā€ in the original post since in my opinion, this option is not as equally or easily accessible for everyone + +If you have access to credit, for example as a credit card or arranged overdraft, you can use these products as a tool for financial planning for small scale emergencies and there are benefits to using credit cards (there are numerous articles online regarding this and a comment thread below with examples) but this post is not about credit, the post is trying to show the reasons why someone starting out could need an emergency fund and factors to consider + +The above post is not meant to be a ā€œyou have to arrange your emergency fund in this wayā€ post, it is purely meant to help beginners (hence the title) try and arrange for themselves what would be an appropriate emergency fund for themselves and how to arrange this fund to meet their needs as there are posts from people asking about this topic + +If you already have an emergency fund that meets your needs, and you are able to use credit in order to cover small scale emergencies, then keep doing what you are doing as it meets your unique circumstances + +However, not everyone can or does have access to credit easily and if someone does not have an emergency fund to fall back on, or if for whatever reason delays occur during a withdrawal, this could see someone having additional costs which could have been avoided or reduced in severity if they had an emergency fund in an quickly accessible account + +If you decide that a week or a month notice is sufficient for you to meet an emergency, then use these types of account, but you should be aware of the potential risk of delays could arise if you choose to use a notice account + +I would like to also point out that none of the above is advice but just information as I said at the beginning of the post, I am not advising anyone to not invest into Premium bonds, just highlighting some points about this product so people are aware + +From my own anecdotal evidence from talking with friends, I know some people put ā€œall their savingsā€ into premium bonds leaving themselves no cash buffer at all in case something goes wrong, which again people can do (it is your money, you can do what you wish with it) but I wanted to help people realise some risks with this approach and a possible compromise (not to say the example is the only correct way to arrange an emergency fund, there are several different ways someone can arrange their funds and it is up the individual to decide what is appropriate for themselves) +I've derived no value other than a pair of glasses annually and the occasional dental clean, and cannot justify paying over $120 per month in health cover. Going to cancel cover, will the levy be more costly? What's everyone else doing? +If youā€™re worried about the price, donā€™t be. + +I have been in the crypto-sphere since about 2014-ish. I originally bought my bitcoin for use on the internet. + +That was what started me on the path to studying and understanding how blockchain works and why it is such a huge deal. + +Blockchainā€™s main purpose is to securely transfer value without the need for an intermediary. This isnā€™t a stock or a traditional investment. In fact itā€™s something thatā€™s never been seen in the history of the world. Throughout the history of money one would need SOME 3rd party (Gov., banks, etc...) to verify a transaction or to give the currency value. Blockchain, or more specifically cryptocurrency completely eliminates this aspect of currency. + +That being said, there is no assets or company backing (some exceptions) any crypto on the market. There is no earnings report that estimates the value; there is no technical analysis in the world that can predict the price; there is no relationship between a stock/bond and a cryptocurrency. + +These virtual assets are a utility. + +Utility in economics is the amount of time and money you save by choosing a certain financial path. For day to day consumers we want to maximize our utility I.e. get the most bang for our buck. Large corporations and governments would like to minimize it to cut out whatever that is not needed to increase the bottom line on their income statement. + +These currencies not only allow society to easily optimize utility for large entities, but for individuals as well. + +Corporations that solely exist to transfer/store value (visa, western union, Wells Fargo, etc...) marginally decrease our optimal utility and suck the liquidity out of an economy. I donā€™t want to seem like I am attacking these corporations but this is literally the definition of a parasite. Which is an entity that receives benefits from a host while the host is in detriment. These corporations leech this money out of the economy. Sure their workers are paid and this increases their marginal prosperity to consume, but how many jobs are lost to efforts of cost reduction? How much investment is left on the sidelines due to fees and other stipulations these intermediaries create? + +If this leakage of utility and liquidity is patched our global economy will operate at a greater efficiency than it currently is; as there is no forced induction of funds into an industry thatā€™s only function is to transfer/store value. + +Since its established that this IS the future of finance, based on my extremely simplified explanation, the only question now is the question of rate of adoption. + +I have 3 brief points to make: + + 1.) Adoption curves do exist and they are found in a every thing that is used today. Cars, phones, the internet, Reddit, etc. All of these utilities follow the adoption curve ([or S-curve](http://i2.wp.com/www.business-planning-for-managers.com/Worpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/adoption_curve.jpg)) almost 1:1. + + 2.) Fractals are a branch of mathematics that explain the bigger picture by looking at smaller portions of the whole. (ā€œAs above, so belowā€) This is rather difficult to explain, but it is basically repetition that grows with scale. + + 3.) Crypto is nowhere near full adoption, we are in the mania phase of early adoption where all the applications of the technology are being tried and vetted for use in the world. This aspect is known as the Gartner Hype Cycle. +With these points, one puts together a puzzle. [Since Crypto is so volatile and there is little knowledge in the world of it, along with patterns of repetition that appear to be fractal,](https://i.imgur.com/05V81cb.png) we know this is only the beginning of a revolution. + +I believe we are in the beginning stages of the FIRST investable adoption curve to ever face humanity and the research I have gathered thus far supports this thesis immaculately. + +I know seeing these prices short-term hurt you greatly and it feels terrible thinking you made a bad choice. But time heals all and you and I will be the winners in the end. + +This is the internet of value being created right in front of us. In fact blockchain will do to finance, what the internet did for telecommunications. + +Invest in fundamentals, believe in yourself, understand the technology, and donā€™t ever listen to the media (banks have a lot of money to spread fear to eliminate a threat). + +Sometime this year, we will have another bull run, and this one will not be as large percentage wise. But the value in fiat will be exponentially increased. + + + +Much love, good luck, and HODL. + +P.s. sorry about any errors Iā€™m on mobile and itā€™s 2 am and I just finished working on a paper. + + + + + + +EDIT: **Those trying to call me out on my assumptions based purely on the fact that my ideas are assumptions, have the fundamentals of economics wrong. THE 10 PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS are assumptions in themselves and Econ is a social science!** + +EDIT 2: **Beware that most of us have a vested interest in the success or failure of crypto! Some have long positions, some have short positions.** + +EDIT 3: *Full disclosure I currently have shorts on: BTC, ETH, ADA. I have long Positions in: NEO XRP XMR.* + +EDIT 4: If you have asked for my full dissertation, I will post it in this thread mid-July along with my results from the presentation. + +EDIT 5: I am not telling you to buy or sell. I'm suggesting you hold onto your investments if you have the skin to lose! +By Chris Dunn + +1 - Everyoneā€™s a genius in a bull market. Real traders can survive and even thrive in bear markets or highly volatile markets. + +2 - Donā€™t be a blind bull. ALL markets are cyclical. Donā€™t be afraid of pullbacks or market crashes ā€“ thatā€™s where you can make the most money. + +3 - Thereā€™s a big difference between a trade and an investment. + +4 - Fully plan your trade before you pull the trigger on the entry. + +5 - Entries are important, but risk & money management is where you make or lose money. + +6 - Beware of get-rich-quick gurus hopping on the crypto bandwagon over the past year. + +7 - Decide which types of trade setups or investments youā€™ll take and ignore everything else. + +8 - Donā€™t assume just because youā€™ve made a lot of money in crypto that you can just as easily make money in other financial markets. 95%+ of stock market traders LOSE money. The game is rigged. Stick to what you know works for you. + +9 - The best way to day trade cryptocurrencies is ā€“ DONā€™T! + +10 - The best way to profit in any market is to find something you think has big potential early (before the general public catches on), and invest assuming youā€™re going to lose 100% of your capital. Itā€™s the ā€œangel investorā€ approach. + +11 - You canā€™t control the market. The only thing you can control is your entries, trade size, and exits. + +12 - One market participant can completely destroy ā€œgood technical analysisā€. + +13 - Donā€™t blindly follow trade alerts from ANYONE, especially random people on social media or chat rooms. + +14 - All financial networking marketing projects are ponzi schemes, period. + +15 - If you make a life-changing amount of money, do NOTHING for at least 30 days. + +16 - Trading isnā€™t about picking exact tops and bottoms in a market ā€“ itā€™s about catching the meat of a move. + +17 - Donā€™t turn a small losing trade into a massive losing investment. + +18 - Donā€™t set daily profit target goals ā€“ set long-term performance goals. + +19 - Learn to survive, then thrive. + +20 - The best charting indicators are price action and volume. You can use others, but it wonā€™t necessarily make you a more profitable trader. + +21 - Trends can go way past what seems rational. + +22 - Donā€™t try to pick tops in a market. Wait for the market to tell you when the trend is over. + +23 - Donā€™t trade in front of big news events ā€“ itā€™s impossible to predict how markets will react. + +24 - The biggest challenge for most traders is their ego, or the need to be right. + +25 - You can lose 50% of your trades and still be profitable if you manage risk properly. + +26 - The best entrepreneurs and CEOā€™s typically make the worst traders and investors. + +27 - People with the best mindset for investing typically have a career in high-risk situations like firefighters, pilots, police. + +28 - Avoid pump and dump groups like the plague they are. + +29 - You WILL make every mistake in the book. Donā€™t beat yourself up when you make mistakes, just learn and try not to make the same mistake twice. + +30 - Donā€™t treat crypto exchanges like bank accounts. You donā€™t own the coins unless you control the private keys. + +31 - Crypto is a 24/7/365 market. You canā€™t catch every trade. If you miss one, donā€™t worry ā€“ thereā€™s ALWAYS another trade. + +32 - Donā€™t invest in a coin unless you understand it inside out. + +33 - You can make money trading the momentum and hype in shitcoins, just donā€™t invest long-term. + +34 - Stay away from coins with low trading volume and low market caps. They are easily manipulated and you can get stuck in a position. + +35 - Donā€™t trade with money you need for living expenses. Itā€™s called ā€œrisk capitalā€ for a reason. + +36 - Think of yourself as a hunter ā€“ save your ammo for the big game. + +37 - Crypocurrency exchanges go down when thereā€™s high volatility. If price hits a major target or buy zone, it might make sense to place some orders BEFORE everyone else. + +38 - Trading and investing brings all your emotions to the forefront ā€“ fear, greed, hesitation. + +39 - The hardest thing to do in trading isā€¦ NOTHING. This can also be the most profitable thing to do. + +40 - Just because a market is in a ā€œbubbleā€ doesnā€™t mean itā€™s going to die. Bitcoin has been through over half a dozen big bubbles and increased in price after each one. + +41 - Manage your trades in a way that would leave you with no regrets no matter what the market does. + +42 - Learn to think like a contrarian. If youā€™re someone who needs to have your opinion validated by everyone around you, then trading and investing isnā€™t for you. + +43 - The shorter the chart time frame, the less reliable the chart patterns are. The longer the time frame, the more variables affect price action and the harder it becomes to predict price. My sweet spot in the daily chart for trade setups and 60-minute chart for entries. + +44 - Some market conditions are great for pushing the gas on every trade setup you can find, where other market conditions call for you to slam on the brakes and step away from the markets altogether. + +45 - 90%+ of cryptocurrencies will eventually go to zero. Invest accordingly. + +46 - The mental side of trading is the hardest to master, the most under-appreciated skill, and will cause you to make or lose the biggest amounts of money. + +47 - The 3 biggest problems for traders are over-trading, hesitating on entries, and closing positions prior to profit targets when the trade is still intact. + +48 - You can make a careerā€™s worth of profit in one year or one trade ā€“ donā€™t feel like every day has to be a home run. Play the long game. Be patient and wait for the best plays. + +49 - Donā€™t trust anyone else to trade for you. Manage your own high-risk investments (like crypto trading) or donā€™t participate at all. + +50 - Take the news for what it is ā€“ theyā€™re trying to get views and clicks. Theyā€™re NOT looking out for your best interests or trying to help you make money. +I have sold 30 of the 70c on $NIO that expires on Friday. I am going to cash out half tomorrow if the stock trades flat overnight and hold the rest through earnings. Collateral is about 15k for selling thirty, so my maximum gain holding these to expiration, as my fill was about $.39, will be about $1170. This will net about a 7.8% ROI. + +Basically, I am posting this as I want to discuss risk vs. reward. Is anyone else doing this play? I do not see NIO reaching 70 in 3 trading days, however, it seems like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. I did nearly the same play with $TSLA during battery week, resulting in gains. + +EDIT: Based on the general consensus of the comments, I have closed my positions for a gain of 27 dollars. I underestimated the ability for NIO to rise and will switch to either CSPs or covered calls. Thanks for the thoughts. + +EDIT 2: Fuck. Should have held. Sold 10 at noon so I am coming out of this with 300 in gains. +Investing noob, early 50s. After sitting on the sideline I invested in January with WealthSimple and have taken quite a hit. With this recent rally the portfolio improved but is still down ~15%. From everything I read/watch, it seems that this is likely a bear market rally and we have a lot lower to go. Does it make sense to divest some of the portfolio into cash at a loss, and then wait to reinvest when the market goes lower? Or just HODL and DCA? I understand the ā€œtime in the marketā€ thesis, but there are also times when it can take many years - even decades - to recoup losses in the market. Genuinely curious how other January investors are thinking about this. +Total noob to investing and have been trying to find more information on how to better evaluate the companies I'm looking to invest in. I've been watching Richard over at the Plain Bagel (local Ottawa guy like me and he's a really nice dude! Met him a couple of times) and he's mentioned a couple of things to consider when looking to invest in a company. Here were the 5 I picked out from his videos: + +1. Company History +2. Debt +3. Balance Sheet +4. Profitable? +5. Trends in the market + +Is there anything else you all consider before investing in a company? Anything you think other noob investors should add to their checklist? +The spreadsheet +https://picbun.com/p/Vt7FUncq + + +I'm building an excel spreadsheet with my current expenses and adding in estimated future expenses such as more home help, cleaning, yard work maybe etc, I won't always be able to be diy guy. I'm also estimating Healthcare costs and insurance as well as travel/vacation. + + +But do I need to be inflation adjusting these expenses in order to match up with where I'm projecting my portfolio growth to be in 10 to 15 years from now? + + + +If I use today's estimated costs for things I'll need in 15 years from now when I may reach FI and potentially RE will my numbers be somewhat accurate? Or will they be way off? + + +I'm also guessing that $1200 per month can get my wife and I health insurance with maybe a 6k deductible. + +And I'm estimating that after 10 to 15 years we'll refinance the house and will owe less per month than current. 155k owed currently. Probably 100k owed in 10 years if we make a few extra payments here and there. + +I see s&p500 is 10.5 percent annual returns before inflation adjustment and 7 percent adjusted. I assume 7 percent is the number I would use. + + +Do I use a compound interest calculator for these growth projections? I know it's not a CD or a bond so I didn't know if compound calculator was the choice for this sort of investment. + + + +What savings goal should I realistically set? I'm not looking to nail it down to an exact number but I'd like to know if I'm in the right ballpark with my estimates. I keep coming up with between 1.8M and 2.5M depending on how I project my expenses. But if I need to be projecting my future inflation adjusted expenses then my numbers are too low... + + + + I'm aiming for 28X my annual spending because I'll be a bit less than 50 years old when I may start reaching these portfolio values needed. So need to get 50 years out of the portfolio. + + + +And my portfolio allocation is going to be 50 percent VTI and 50 percent VOO. I know it's a redundant mix. I currently have a lump sum of cash that I can DCA into the market over the next 18 months so I can change this allocation if needed. +Good Morning Apes! + +Rising slightly above max pain into close yesterday we are looking good for a slightly positive week. Today we should see a slight shift to net short FTDs and some increased buy pressure. Still not significant volume but hopefully some more price improvement. + +https://preview.redd.it/4s8wo55rso881.png?width=205&format=png&auto=webp&s=61aebbb43b17060cbb144ad1d1c9dacb95b10b71 + +**You are welcome to check my profile for links to my previous DD, and YouTube Livestream.** + +Historical Resistance/Support: + +116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 157 (ATM offering), 158.5, 162.5, 163, 165.5, 172.5, 174, 176.5, 180, 182.5, 184, 187.5, 190, 192.5, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 225.20 (ATM offering) 227.5, 232.5, 235, 242.5, 250, 255, 262.5, 275, 280, 285, 300, 302.50, 310, 317.50, 325, 332.5, 340, 350, 400, 483, moon base... + +# aFTER mARKET + +GME closing above max pain today after that failed test of 160. The put wall will remain in place for tomorrow. However a close above max pain and the resistance to the large end of day drop in the S&P are both bullish indicators moving forward. Thank you for tuning in and I will see you tomorrow. + +\- Gherkinit + +https://preview.redd.it/9twc4s4gvq881.png?width=703&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b93f74cf77ea468284245d7a9cf45dc8d77c7a1 + +Edit 4 1:12 + +Going for 160 + +https://preview.redd.it/vpmcbh9w0q881.png?width=1575&format=png&auto=webp&s=637d4398d9a84a7aac3aaf7f513f83fa3189a71f + +Edit 3 11:56 + +GME breaking out and gobbling up that 155 put wall, 160 is the next strong resistance. + +https://preview.redd.it/irmrg9aenp881.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=d61711ab28f105b816159c50a7d1f63a20fd034e + +Edit 2 11:30 + +I have nothing to say about this... + +https://preview.redd.it/ds84o7vdip881.png?width=791&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0460daddc9ac1a8fff166670a45d6660cc6971d + +Edit 1 10:00 + +A little volatility out of the gate but lacking volume to break through the 155 put wall , the consolidation looks good and there is bullish momentum on XRT. + +https://preview.redd.it/veo47fbk2p881.png?width=770&format=png&auto=webp&s=113217e644bdb31d410d55be682e8b29ce0f0790 + +# Pre-Market Analysis + +Volume: 5.34k + +Shares to Borrow - + +IBKR - 100,000 @ 0.9% + +Fidelity - 307,483 @ 0.75% (this actually dropped to zero earlier this morning) + +[GME pre-market 1m Chart](https://preview.redd.it/uo5dhj9ito881.png?width=1553&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd6e652acd4de72e002a32a40d4c6313cbf65cc8) + +CV\_VWAP + +Ticking up a bit but still hasn't picked up any significant deviation + +https://preview.redd.it/lun7duiuto881.png?width=2460&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7758a26ea0d5afa614f87f0e430040b3831cee6 + +**Disclaimer** + +*\* Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze. If you are one of the people that use this information to day trade this stock, I hope you sell at resistance then it turns around and gaps up to $500.* šŸ˜ + +*\*Options present a great deal of risk to the experienced and inexperienced investors alike, please understand the risk and mechanics of options before considering them as a way to leverage your position.* + +\**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.* + +*\* No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* +I saved up 120k in cash and can afford ~3200/mo in mortgage. When I talked to my mortgage lender for a single family home, I qualified for about 700k. + +I recently got married and we couldnā€™t decide where we wanted to live, so our plan is to buy an investment property and rent an apartment for us to live ā€” so we can move around. We will stay in the Seattle area btw. + +I have been looking for an investment property in the area and found a single home unit for $650k, and property management companies said I can get around $2900 for rent. The mortgage would be around $2900 with 20% down as well. + +I am really interested in the above property, but since this will be a 100% investment property, I am not sure if I can find a better property as an investment including multi-unit ones. + +It took me a long time to save up $120k and want to make the best use out of it. + +My question to you guys ā€” what would you do if you were in my shoes? +Iā€™m beginning to do some research in different areas for my first purchase, which will be for a multi family property & done with an FHA loan. + + +Iā€™m curious to know what smaller to midsize cities are the most tax friendly. I was hoping to look into the PNW, but I havenā€™t found anything within my range, and it seems taxes are fairly high. The Midwest/east coast are seeming more favorable. Iā€™m open to hearing what some of you know + +EDIT: when I say taxes, Iā€™m referring to all taxes. + +EDIT #2: all unnecessary lectures/trolling will be blocked & reported. Anyone who has said ā€œyou shouldnā€™t be investing in real estate if youā€™re basing your purchase off of taxesā€ is silly and baseless. Take your micro aggressions out of this thread/subreddit. +I was talking with a hard money lender and surprised by some of the requirements and terms: + +Before you get the hard money loan, some of the more interesting requirements: + +1. Must have a company, they won't loan to an individual. +2. Two personal guarantors +2. Copy of the Driver's license of the borrower and guarantors + +Funding Process: + +A. Borrower is responsible for lender's attorney fees, including doc prep, title insurance and recording fees. Lender chooses attorney. + +B. Points and interest accumulate and are paid when the house sells. + +C. Interest starts on the entire loan amount from the first day of closing, even if draw funds are not released. + +D. If closing is delayed, interest will still be charged from the original closing day. + +E. Work must be completed before funds are released for that work. + +F. Automatic 2-month extensions. One point for each extension. Total 2 extensions to 10 months. + +G. At the end of 10 months, another 2-month extension requires borrower to pay all accumulated points and interests. Interest rate goes up to 18%. + +H. If loan is not paid in full at 12 months, the borrower will sign a deed in lieu of foreclosure. If not signed, they will start foreclosure process. + +The last one - deed in lieu of foreclosure, caught me by surprise. I guess it makes sense, but can you imagine pouring your own time and money into a property only to walk away from it? I spoke with another hard money lender and he said he has acquired a few properties this way, and he said even experienced rehabbers have walked away from properties. Forget tax sales, this seems to be a better use of money. + +EDIT: anyone know any you must have a company? Seems like an extra layer if you try to recover your money. +Disclaimer: nothing in this post is financial advice. Iā€™m just sharing an experience that I had while trying to learn about the stock marketā€™s plumbing. Please donā€™t do anything coordinated, stupid, or illegal. I just like the stock and learning how things work and talking about my experience. + +Edit: Here's the screenshot for people who were asking. I couldn't figure out know how to post pictures with my phone, so I had to wait to get back on my desktop. + +https://preview.redd.it/e2jtfwmyzmy81.jpg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d6ac7e45d8a2ff7c53632458b88bff5f27bdbfcf + +Okay, so the other day I did an experiment on the headphone stock because there were literally no trades taking place on that ticker for a several minute period (šŸŽ§ is a super thinly traded micro cap, so it was a perfect test case). + +Last month I heard about using Fidelity active trader pro to route trades through a lit exchange like IEX. I stated to do that the other day when buying some headphone stock, and then thought, ā€œdamn, this company just seems underpriced right now. I am honestly willing to pay more than anyone is asking.ā€ So instead of buying through IEX, I routed a market order for one share though the exchange that had the highest ask. (In this case , it was XNMS, and it had 100 shares listed for about 3 cents more than the lowest ask, which was on FINY). Lo and behold, my trade for one share went though at the higher price, and the market price on the ticker moved up. + +Hereā€™s where it got weird. As soon as my trade for one share went through XNMS, ALL the exchanges immediately adjusted their ask upward. It happened super fast, like an algo was adjusting the price automatically. Now, ARCX was the highest priced exchange, by about 2 cents. So I made a directed market buy for one share through ARCX. It happened again. As soon as my order of *one fucking share* was filled, ALL the exchanges changed their ask price. + +I did this two more times, picking the most expensive exchange, and ultimately walked the price up from $7.14 to $7.22. *Thatā€™s a whole percentage point moved by just four orders of one share. My $29 (or so) added about $1M in market cap to the headphone stock over the course of 3 minutes.* I was the only buyer during that time, and I took a screenshot as proof. + +When I stopped buying, the asks gradually walked down, like an auctioneer. + +So here is my conclusions: + +1. The algos that set the price are more responsive to number of *trades* than the number of shares per trade. It made a bigger difference to the price when I made 4 orders of one share than if I bought 50 shares in one big order. +2. The algos that run the market are not designed to handle retarded buyers (like me) who are willing to pay more for the ā€œbest exchangeā€ rather than the best (cheapest) price. +3. If little olā€™ me can use a retail app from Fidelity to fuck that much with the algos, there is NO WAY that hedge funds arenā€™t using high tech trading programs to manipulate the price of my favorite stonk every day. +4. Gary Gensler, wen job? + +I stopped doing this because it freaked me out. + +Has anyone else had this experience? +Hi /r/bitcoin. There's no good way to introduce myself. I'm a 20 year-old woman, Iā€™m between the cracks, Iā€™m a slave, forced into whoring myself, a victim of what is usually called ā€œhuman trafficing.ā€ There's no way I can escape from this without harm coming to my family, Iā€™m not here for pity. This is the life I'm stuck in, and I'm making the best of it, day by day. The last year, though has been much better than expected. + +I began reading this reddit with interest in 2012, and in 2013 (first buy was at $43), began coordinating meets downtown with people selling local. (Nice guys, every one of them wanted to rescue me, really sweet (if any of you are reading this, thank you)) and I'd exchange a small portion of my night's cash for bitcoins. + +I had one seller who began to meet me regularly, act like an ordinary John on until we got to the room, and then just educate me for the hour about bitcoin. These sessions are some of my happiest memories from the past 2 years. He even paid/tipped me for my time after teaching me! Some in cash, only a little in bitcoin: kept the management from growing suspicious. always still mostly taking home cash) I trusted him enough to hold my bitcoin for me, to keep any evidence of what I was doing off my phone. He was truly a good samaritan. In this way I managed to put about 10% of my earnings away every month. I don't have to tell you how smart and lucky I felt come December. + +I sent 22 BTC home that month (around $750 exchange rate) to help pay off a portion of my parent's debt. If this was taken home as cash, almost 2/3 of it would have gone to management "expenses." Once I've finished covering their debt, I plan to save to purchase my freedom and be through with the business. This should be in about a year. I've recently begin to understand basic margin trading, and I suspect that, even with my extremely limited computer access, I could turn a profit on the bitcoin i already have by opening a 3:1 buy when I feel btc has dipped close to low. + +I had some rare free time and II wanted to thank you, users of this subreddit, for helping educate me about bitcoin and, in turn, helping me to get my parent's life back on track as soon as possible. If I'm living a different life in a year, I'll have you all to thank. I bet this all sounds tragic, but itā€™s reality, and I'm doing much better than I ever imagined. I thought you would be happy to know how it has has positively affected my life & my parents. + +Posting in fatFIRE because I think this community will have a fair number of people who explored similar options and this is a path that may be available to some to fatFIRE. + +Situation: I've got a good chunk of stock in a private startup that's doing very well. As nothing is guaranteed in life, I'd like to liquidate \~10% of it to avoid loosing all of its value in a downside scenario. This would be a life-changing increase in my liquid net worth and would leave plenty on the table to continue to motivate me to make the company a success. + +Problem: Executive leadership is very principled and is not allowing secondary sales. The company has fairly standard startup legal terms around the company's right of first refusal and what not. + +Research: I've done a lot of looking around on the internet on this topic. I'm aware of the variety of services that will facilitate secondary sales. But, true secondaries will need to go through executive leadership and are thus a non-starter. I've found non-recourse loans and pre-paid variable forward contracts may be options for me getting liquidity without company involvement. But, there's very little for details out there on these. For good explanations, see [here](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebrumberg/2021/09/20/financing-stock-option-exercises-in-private-companies-insights-from-a-top-financial-advisor/?sh=28d5d8502446) and [here](https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/publications/stock-option-financing-pre-ipo-companies). Within fatFIRE, I've found somewhat relevant information [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/lmb26v/nonrecourse_loan_to_early_exercise_my_options/), [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/lks52c/28m_in_equity_let_the_anxiety_begin/), [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/p2eiob/financing_options_for_isos_secfi/), [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/meq91p/financing_stock_option_exercise/), [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/q67vat/does_anyone_have_experience_purchasing_securities/), among others. + +**Request: Is there anyone out there that has had a similar experience and is willing to talk about it?** + +For completeness and to help others with similar questions, here's a list of companies I've found that could potentially facilitate pre-IPO liquidity (I've not yet contacted any of them and I'm not affiliated with any of them): + +Forge [https://forgeglobal.com/](https://forgeglobal.com/) + +ESO Fund [https://www.esofund.com/](https://www.esofund.com/) + +Liquid Stock [https://liquidstock.com/](https://liquidstock.com/) + +Quid [https://www.getquid.com/](https://www.getquid.com/) + +SecFi [https://www.secfi.com/](https://www.secfi.com/) + +Section Partners [https://www.sectionpartners.com/](https://www.sectionpartners.com/) + +ECP [https://www.employeecapitalpartners.com/](https://www.employeecapitalpartners.com/) + +EquityBee [https://equitybee.com/](https://equitybee.com/) + +Microventures [https://microventures.com/](https://microventures.com/) + +EquityZen [https://equityzen.com/](https://equityzen.com/) + +Vested [https://vested.co/](https://vested.co/) + +White Horse Liquidity [https://whitehorseliquidity.com/](https://whitehorseliquidity.com/) + +137 Ventures [https://137ventures.com/](https://137ventures.com/) +Who would I talk to about this? Am I even able to receive any backpay? The termination itself was uneventful: I had put my two weeks in, and they decided instead to just fire me a week before the date I gave them. It obviously makes sense for them to fire me at the end of my shift, but when they escorted me out of the building, I figured my old boss would fix my time in the time system. One missed day of pay isnā€™t the biggest thing in the world, but I do feel like they took advantage of me + +EDIT: I totally forgot about this part, my apologies. After a closer look at my pay stub, it turns out I did get paid the correct amount of hours. So my boss actually did go back and fix my time on my last day. + +However, I had called out sick the day before, with sick time to cover my shift, and THAT was the 8 hours they didnā€™t honor. +https://imgur.com/a/vApEvav + +Hey all, I really want to start this out by thanking you all for the kindness, whether you gave me good words, prayers, and of course the very generous people who have helped fund his treatment. Truly, I thank all of you. + +He finally came home today, the diagnosis was middle of the road. He has a broken shoulder, a hairline fracture on his other shoulder which shouldn't be a big deal, he has some bruising on the lungs and road rash. But, he's alive and he's very likely going to make it. + +The vet has recommended a month of crate life for him, he's currently in my living room and always around us. He's eating well but dehydrated, we're working on his water intake. If in a month he's still in pain or it isn't healing, we're going to go forward with an amputation. It's going to be a long road to recovery, but we'll make it. + +I'm including photos of him today, and hope the mods don't get too bent out of shape. I also have photos of my vet bill so far, a few accused me of scamming and I understand the hesitation. Giving money to a complete stranger is naturally a gamble, and we all have a soft spot for our dogs. + +I want to end this with saying something on a more personal level. A lot of people called for vigilante justice, and at first I felt the same. But the animal that did this, he isn't a human. He's a cold, broken man who is unloved and unwanted. his mere existence is more suffering than I can ever give him. Instead, I'm going to focus on the positive. + +I'm going to focus on the neighbor who has gave me a ride when I was in no shape to drive, sitting with me while we got him in the vet. I'm going to focus on the people in town who have asked me about him when we pass. I'm going to focus on the vets wife, who lost her husband a few months ago, and on their anniversary on a cold Saturday afternoon went from her house in her pajamas to see to him that he was in no pain. I'm going to focus on the people here who were so kind, giving and loving. And I would like to add a shout-out to u\thesongofstorms . Usually, mods are power Nazis. But he was very attentive, and shielded me from negative comments lightning fast. He went out of his way to have my back, and I want to let everyone know that. + +In closing, I'm going to focus on the good in this world. I'm going to walk away from social media for awhile, I'm going to walk away from being such a negative and bad person. I'm going to find a charity to work for, I'm going to sit down and be the husband and father I want to be. I'm going to be a better man. people say I saved that dog, when I took him in off the street and gave him shelter, when I took a ticket I couldn't really afford so he wasn't put down, and when I took him to the vet instead of putting him down. But the truth is, that dog saved me from myself. And I'll forever be in his debt. + +Merry Christmas, God bless, and thank you. +Hi all, **u\\bosshax** here, + +No dates... but... Ryan does tweet for a reason and there are bread crumbs here... + +For non US apes... New York is often called the "**big apple**". + +https://preview.redd.it/aj76eh9zud491.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=d28fd0b32fd2090f2f2ab6b999ec0f487d882c83 + +Last year Matt Finestone, head of GME Blockchain, attended [NFT.NYC](https://NFT.NYC) with several other GameStop executives. + + +https://preview.redd.it/ezu2fvj2vd491.png?width=596&format=png&auto=webp&s=a4f53df1643c3a95d52001a37c268f2d15665b46 + +This year the same event is June 20-23rd, 2022. + + +https://preview.redd.it/r76chnuwzd491.png?width=1252&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9cead67af69479e898057c592e23ed0997a7d4e + +https://preview.redd.it/6nrl5q36vd491.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c5bf0396fb8979d7990b25130c86660eeedd884 + +Ryan, Meme Lord, also tweeted this back in January... 6/9, the most memeiest number. + + +https://preview.redd.it/5u1ngtj2wd491.png?width=595&format=png&auto=webp&s=6effa41b08f002902f50ba2d2fb32d7f7c05c783 + +Generally the *earliest* you can implement a stock-split dividend is 10 days. + +https://preview.redd.it/k34hgz0wvd491.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=29efb9b3989385c99f8622cf4f2f57779febf0c6 + + +This Thursday June 9th is 6/9... + +Ten business days later is [NFT.NYC](https://NFT.NYC)... + +6/9 *could* be a stock-split announcement AND GME NFT Alpha Marketplace launch/reveal at the event. + +https://preview.redd.it/eodzdcskwd491.png?width=2049&format=png&auto=webp&s=549af9d1f7a0e4ad07b731ac409186c7dd76737e + +[NFT.NYC](https://NFT.NYC) called out the Immutable (IMX) and GameStop (GME) partnership last year... so they're familiar with both brands. + + +https://preview.redd.it/k0cw6thrwd491.png?width=588&format=png&auto=webp&s=2db0a0768ebfc22034e99f0a06a9c80a7a26bd66 + +Probably nothing but... Immutable (IMX) is hosting an after-party at [NFT.NYC](https://NFT.NYC). Suffice to say this event *seems* a big deal. + + +https://preview.redd.it/kdec90e2xd491.png?width=467&format=png&auto=webp&s=d62d93ff516b8786e7d82c53a18751070d66da9b + +On June 7th 'Launch Creators' simultaneously revealed they are part of the Launch group for GameStop NFT Marketplace: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bq2aewapyd491.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2ce7c60fd95dbf5855f232bcde13348992ae77e + +We already know there are several phases of the GameStop Marketplace and below describes Alpha, which comes before IMX integration/content. This *sounds* like Launch Creators to me. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vnxuvmltyd491.png?width=1072&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3d051eec902a09e96deae6c7041518a6f39d1f2 + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vn7pth510e491.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=57852cd1dda017f066c983ae99e886b0df67b8a8 + +Some creators have been ready and waiting for over half a year: + +&#x200B; + +[This creator was minting months ago...](https://preview.redd.it/ugx1y6y40e491.png?width=588&format=png&auto=webp&s=62c7c67f58bdf5932adbf969c0b64b6b712a85e1) + +So Launch Partners are ready, they're beginning to tease an Alpha Launch... We have the Superbowl of NFTs coming up... and Ryan's got his finger on the stock-split trigger. Does 6/9 start the hype-train and rally into split? Amazon just had their stock split and their stock rallied 25% into split date (kind of huge for Amazon)... Just saying. + +So, no dates... but some dates... + +It's always tomorrow... + +**TLDR:** + +Ryan Cohens tweet "the apple doesn't fall far from the tree". + +apple = new york + +coming June 20-23 is [NFT.NYC](https://NFT.NYC), **the Superbowl of NFT events.** + +Everybody is there including Immutable X, also hosting an after-party (it's a big event). + +Ryan Cohen also tweeted 6/9- the most meme number and it's tomorrow. + +The SEC requires 10 days to implement stock dividend. + +10 regular days is June 20th, 10 business days is June 23rd, both work... + +Launch creators are beginning to reveal they're close to Alpha GME Marketplace Creator Launch... + +**Theory:** Ryan Cohen could announce the stock split on 6/9 (tomorrow) and create a huge rally into the [NFT.NYC](https://NFT.NYC) event where they will launch Alpha GME Marketplace. So we have simultaneous stock split + Alpha Launch. Nice. That will get media attention... + +If you like my theories you can follow me on [twitter](https://twitter.com/EndOfTheWake). It is not monetized, I make no money from anything and I have a whopping 300 ish followers. +With a nice boost from the S&P 500 today, I crossed the 50k mark in net worth. Don't feel comfortable sharing this with any friends/my girlfriend for obvious reasons, but I needed to get it off my chest. What I'm most proud of is the fact that I earned 90% of this money myself (the other 10% coming from saving birthday, Christmas, etc. gifts over 20 years). + +I have a loooong way to go. I still have to focus on graduating college and finding a good job in the next couple years. But days like today remind me that it'll all be worth it in the long run! +I always had a low (sub $300cap) credit card of which I have NEVER missed a payment on. For the first time ever I got curious and looked up my credit report/score. It revealed I had an extra credit card in bad standing and money in collections. I called up all 3 credit beureus to dispute the card and put a fraud report. This was before I realized it was my own mother who opened the card.... + +She told me last night when I seen she was crying. I asked why? And she finally broke down and told the truth. + + Now knowing that my mom fucked up my credit I'm hurt, annoyed, angry but also worried. I was adament about the card not being mine and them doing an investigation. On one end I do NOT want to get pinned for something that is essentially identity fraud. On the other hand I don't want to see my mother in trouble regardless of the circumstance. + +Any advice is appreciated. +# EDIT: Debunked: I knew I was missing something. The Bloomberg Geographical data is for institutional holdings I believe. Also someone in Sweden may technically be counted as US ownership if their brokerage is headquartered in the US. + +*Math is hard.* + +&#x200B; + +My main point still stands though. Can we not use the data that Avanza has released to somehow help guesstimate shares held or some shit? Even by customer size comparison or something. + +&#x200B; + +~~So have a quick read through here:~~ [~~https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sueah3/we\_are\_all\_swedish\_today\_245m\_shares\_exist/~~](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sueah3/we_are_all_swedish_today_245m_shares_exist/) + +~~(Don't worry it's easy to read)~~ + +~~Then read my thoughts on it here and let me know why I did the math wrong or explain why I'm smooth af. I probably am.~~ + +~~If we take the recent Bloomberg terminal screenshot of the geographical holdings we see that Switzerland has 0.61% of ownership.~~ [~~Geographical Ownership~~](https://i.imgur.com/IiCWLeU.png) + +~~Unfortunately it doesn't display Sweden on there. But either they are much lower and not displayed, or they are part of the unknown.~~ + +~~Since we can't tell, what if we just take the population ratio.~~ + +~~Sweden - 10.35M Switzerland - 8.637~~ + +~~Switzerland holding % - 0.61%~~ + +~~10.35/8.637 = 1.198~~ + +~~So Sweden's holds 0.61x1.198 = 0.73%~~ + +~~Take their holdings of 511,170 / 0.73% = 71M shares.~~ + +~~So if Avanza is the only brokerage in Sweden with GameStop hodlers then we are already at the entire float almost lol.~~ + +~~Take the Sweden's share number from the chart in that post above and you get this:~~ + +**~~3,146,626Ć·0.0072 = 437,031,389 shares...~~** + +~~Tldr: this seems biggish and why haven't others looked into this data, or if people have please point me to it.~~ + +~~Apes own more than the float.~~ + +~~DRS GME~~ +**TLDR; Set up digital wallet. Connect it to GameStop. Activate Layer 2 using ETH. Await launch.** + +*This is not financial advice. I am also a dummy. You do you.* + +I've been putting this off since beta dropped, but I just did it, and it was super easy. Here's the step-by-step: + +# Set up & connect your digital wallet + +1. Open Google **Chrome** +2. Go to [**beta.nft.gamestop.com**](https://beta.nft.gamestop.com) where you'll see the astronaut page +3. Select "**Connect**" which will take you to a plain white page with options to connect a wallet (it's just what it sounds like, a place to hold your digital stuff like NFTs and crypto). If you already have a compatible wallet, use the wallet connect feature. +4. OR if you don't, select the MetaMask option & **install the MetaMask Chrome extension** and follow the instructions to set up your wallet. You essentially just need to **write down your secret recovery phrase** and click some buttons. +5. Go back to [beta.nft.gamestop.com](https://beta.nft.gamestop.com) and **select MetaMask** option and "sign" by selecting the sign button in the pop-up. You should now be able to see a circle showing you have connected your wallet. When you select the MetaMask extension you will also see that it says "Connected" in the top left". +6. Click on the circle, then the wallet number to see a page that shows tabs for your owned assets, collection, liked and hidden. + +[We moonin'](https://preview.redd.it/3k1t6si0p3q81.png?width=1178&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9e39ab6df21236251d17a47f844a91bc6942891) + +&#x200B; + +# Activate Layer 2 + +This part is important for a few reasons, but what you really need to know is that Layer 2 is what the GameStop NFT marketplace will use. There has been speculation of an **NFT dividend,** and IF that happened, **you would probably need this to get it.** Also think of it as **a way to support your favorite company** and its new endeavor. It's also faster and uses waaaay less energy that Layer 1, which is good for the NFT market generally and the global climate. You will need the cryptocurrency ETH to be able to pay the activation fee. + +https://preview.redd.it/l7vl7bchq3q81.png?width=1712&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f7b3685b63c954c5fdf6f727845d66e510f3d75 + +1. If you need to get ETH: Use the MetaMask browser extension to buy or transfer ETH to your digital wallet by selecting "buy" and selecting one of the options. I used Wyre and a debit card to put $10 in. Easy peasy. +2. Once you have the funds: On the GameStop beta page, click on your circle and select **"Activate Loopring L2**" +3. A window will pop up. Select the **pay** button. +4. You will get a MetaMask pop-up to sign, and then a confirmation on the beta page. + +# Boom. Done. Congrats! You are now part of GameStop's historic move to Web3! + +\--- + +**FYI:** I am still seeing the option to "Activate Loopring L2" but I think this is just a beta bug. + +\--- + +EDIT 1:*STILL NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE* + +**Verify your L2 wallet status** + +* Go to your circle on the beta page +* Select **Account History** +* Select **Loopring Layer 2 Explorer** ā€” this will take you to your Layer 1 info on loopring.io +* In the top navigation list select **Layer2 App** +* Select **Connect Wallet**, agree to terms if you do, select your wallet (MetaMask extension made this very easy) then **Unlock** +* **You should now see a dashboard showing your assets.** If you don't have anything, you should only see whatever is left of ETH that you used to activate Layer 2. + +EDIT 2:u/NotSoAngryAnymore and u/AmpedupFit pointed out that it's important to remember this is a beta version, which means bugs and issues are *expected*. **Be careful in assuming risks, and don't put assets you can't afford to lose in a wallet connected to beta.** My professional work involves translating complex info for the public, but I don't do the complex processes myself. So, I appreciate the pros stepping in to correct and help. Keep it up! + + +EDIT 3: Multiple users have now said they **successfully did this using the Firefox** browser instead of Chrome. It is generally considered a more secure browser, so keep that in mind when deciding which one to use. +Iā€™m looking for a way of getting notified by my bot in case of fatal errors or other important events. At the moment Iā€™m using a gmail account to receive an email. +However, do you have any recommendations for getting some kind of smartphone notification without developing a native app? +So my question for you all is whether or not you had experience trading at all before moving onto algo trading. I currently don't, and can't either way because I work in hft on trading systems, so I'm legally barred from doing any sort of trading whatsoever. + +&#x200B; + +I've been working on implementing an algotrading system; and have been looking into alpaca, alphavantage, and quantconnect. However my concern is whether or not I need to have the requisite trading experience already. My finance knowledge is limited to what I pick up on my job, which is CS and Networking Heavy. But I have no knowledge of technical indicators or trading strategies. Have never used Robinhood or IB or any of the other brokers. This is a problem for me because I'm not an immersive learner. I can't digest information as well for books or lectures. I learn far better from actually doing, and in this case would be actually trading on robinhood or a workstation. I'm well versed in statistics, machine learning and the CS side of things which is the only good thing I have going for me right now. But with finance, I'm a little rough around the edges + +&#x200B; + +What do you guys suggest I do? And if you have any resources or links for learning the non-programming related fundamentals that helped you, that would be great +&#x200B; + +[Citadel released their ADV on 5.6\/2021](https://preview.redd.it/q9piw2rhxjz61.png?width=305&format=png&auto=webp&s=52af62d7d493f4f65af2ce3a80e394c3fd9caaec) + +TLDR the ADV filings shows as of 2/5/2021 citadel has a possible negative short position of 150b. The ADV should be larger than the 13f as it includes all the assets in the 13f plus other assets not included in the 13f like realestate corporate bonds and debt and gross short position. Closing price for Gme on 2/5/2021 was around $60. Remember the potential losses on a short sales is infante... + +You can find it Here--> + +[https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/148826](https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/148826) + +First what's an ADV- it was a regulatory form that first started to be Filed in 2012 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/d0vkj38lzjz61.png?width=1395&format=png&auto=webp&s=227a14a5575ea60f3e4b52a503bbfb16cef0e52c + +Ok how is it different from 13F + +They both report AUM, but they calculate it differently + +[https://www.managedfunds.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/MFA\_RAUM\_Calculation1.pdf](https://www.managedfunds.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/MFA_RAUM_Calculation1.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +[THE ADV AUM will have more items it it](https://preview.redd.it/akglo4g40kz61.png?width=1852&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e1a4fefd1c9bf46036ff2d71eb81d7358c541cb) + +So the ADV will typically be larger than the AUM reported in the 13F + +another note is that the AUM reported in the ADV is 90 days old, so dont read too much into the 5/6 filing that will be from 2/6 data.....but their AUM reported in the ADV was 244,269,595,218.....which is lower than the last 13F by alot. + +**When they started reporting this new metric on the ADV in 2012 the worrie is that it would overstate the AUM, with Citadel they are understating the AUM by 150B.** + +[Historic Values of ADF AUM vs 13F](https://preview.redd.it/b4ttlg6q0kz61.png?width=1543&format=png&auto=webp&s=2308aaea509e8e9fde767a1fd9a7634c275d6d23) + +Look the difference has been growing over the past couple years. + +If you look at other funds, I have not found one that their ADV AUM is less than their 13 F AUM. + +what could cause this...... + +&#x200B; + +[NEGATIVE BONER ](https://preview.redd.it/bh0g1gfh1kz61.png?width=752&format=png&auto=webp&s=3efacb3324fd158d421c691b228e0ffde53cb3fa) + +Back in the day I had a friend that we called Negative Boner because he was the opposite of a Chick Magnet......well anyways + +I think the difference between the two AUM highlights the gross negative short position that they are in. + +Also of note, they have 17 Clients in this ADV (they lost 2 clients since the last filing....only 17 more to GO!) + +41% of the clients are from overseas + +**Look Melvin** + +ADV AUM- 24,516,798,355 + +13 F AUM 12/31/2021- 22,565,170,826 + +7 CLients + +63% overseas investors + +&#x200B; + +The ADV AUM is greater than the 13F.....check other funds, I cant find one that looks the way SHITADEL does. The PDF I link to talks about the worry that the ADV would overstate the AUM and confuse everybody....well I am confused where the missing money is Kenny. + +&#x200B; + +**SHITADEL HAS A HUGE NEGATIVE BONER!** + +please tell me what I am missing and i will update or delete. + +Thanks----- +I've always enjoyed spending money, I can usually justify stupid spending habits to myself and seem to just enjoy the process of buying things, and knowing a parcel is arriving etc. + +Since hunting FI and following the rules of "paying myself first" the paying myself has fulfilled my spending urges. I get to feel like I'm spending, when actually I'm just paying myself. With my passive funds it's even better, the feeling of the 'thing' arriving comes from watching my money grow. + +Just wanted to share and hopefully inspire some people that have been browsing this subreddit but feel they enjoy spending money too much. I live more frugally than I could've ever imagined now, it's only since my FI journey I realized it wasn't needing "stuff" that was my problem, it was the feeling of purchasing things to make me happy in some way, and now I'm happier than ever on my FI journey. + +Anybody else encountered something similar? +The urgency with which these posts urge people to do or not do something rubs me the wrong way. I sincerely believe that the vast, vast majority of us are here to buy and hodl, so I don't understand why one would think that apes would suddenly start shorting en mass. + +I'm not trying to cause any grief over this; If those posters are genuinely voicing their concerns, then by all means voice them. I just don't believe that apes would actually go through with shorting RH. + +Just my two cents on it. +Alright, I'm off to bed. +Love you apes. šŸ’™ +See: https://coinmarketcap.com/ + +Also, screening websites, twitter, reddits, there seems to be a very bullish feeling about litecoin - for a change ;). + +I think that litecoin is indeed largely undervalued considering its capitalization, daily volumes and solid technology. + +It should be like 1500$ but I think it is realistic to see it hit 250$ within 1-2 months. + +Your feelings about litecoin and its rank in the top crypto'? +Good Morning Apes! + +With the ITM put contracts starting to fall off yesterday they may be about finished trying to drive the price down. I discussed how this was unsustainable and it is. They only have three days left this week to begin hedging next weeks exposure and so we should see some confirmation of the current bounce soon. I will be looking to confirm this on a cross of the EMA 250. If they don't begin hedging this week and continue to suppress the price then next weeks price action should be even more violent. + +[a cross to the upside of the EMA 250 would begin to confirm a trend reversal ](https://preview.redd.it/glaz3014mp581.png?width=1379&format=png&auto=webp&s=40a595a3ec24f9002c8a1e6b5ab4e27883a5dc8c) + +If their goal here was to tank the price to force options contracts to close and reduce their exposure next week, yelyah2's delta sensitivity model indicates that they were not highly successful. + +On another note, I will be ending updates early today as I have a funeral to attend this afternoon. + +Historical Resistance/Support: + +116.5, 125.5, 132.5, 141, 145, 147.5, 150, 152.5, 157 (ATM offering), 158.5, 162.5, 163, 165.5, 172.5, 174, 176.5, 180, 182.5, 184, 187.5, 190, 192.5, 195, 196.5, 197.5, 200, 209, 211.5, 214.5, 218, 225.20 (ATM offering) 227.5, 232.5, 235, 242.5, 250, 255, 262.5, 275, 280, 285, 300, 302.50, 310, 317.50, 325, 332.5, 340, 350, 400, 483, moon base... + +Edit 2 12:07 + +Finally that sweet sweet upside breakout GME now green on the day + +https://preview.redd.it/m585uz2mnq581.png?width=1428&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf445827ab50d87928c207cc3732e31907ce95e7 + +Edit 1 10:22 + +A drop down to that lower support and some chop to kill of the elation of that run into close from yesterday, looks like we are turning around a bit now on this last volume spike. + +https://preview.redd.it/x5000muy4q581.png?width=1418&format=png&auto=webp&s=70c19254156c3c08739b7484ed0654629bbf0bfd + +# Pre-Market Analysis + +Volume back in a more normal range this morning with only 12k volume traded so far. + +GME currently down .81% + +We have support to the downside at 143 and resistance to the upside at 150. + +Shares to Borrow: + +IBKR - 150,000 @ 0.5% (50,000 borrowed this morning) + +Fidelity - 596,827 @ 0.75% + +[GME pre-market on the 1m](https://preview.redd.it/326v97obop581.png?width=1422&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae77dac01883c98ca942356ada6bcd3c6201288b) + +CV\_VWAP + +https://preview.redd.it/ay9wfe5kop581.png?width=2456&format=png&auto=webp&s=9dcb7fd3714d6b9b71aea6f9b57dc3004131363c + +**Disclaimer** + +*\* Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze. If you are one of the people that use this information to day trade this stock, I hope you sell at resistance then it turns around and gaps up to $500.* šŸ˜ + +*\*Options present a great deal of risk to the experienced and inexperienced investors alike, please understand the risk and mechanics of options before considering them as a way to leverage your position.* + +\**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.* + +*\* No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* +It feels like yesterday, I was telling all my friends and family because the bull market was showing signs Iā€™ve never seen. This was my fatal mistake. I would have killed to have the chance to purchase Ethereum at 1700, and look where we stand today, I am defeated and cannot Yolo into anything until my shit coins mature into something more valuable than my ass. +Welcome to this month's Rate My Portfolio megathread. Here, others can chime in on your portfolio with their thoughts, keeping the rest of the subreddit clean, and giving you the ~~confirmation bias~~ sanity check you need! + +&#x200B; + +Top level comments should aim to be highly detailed (2-3 paragraphs). Consider including the following: + +&#x200B; + +\* Financial goals and investment time horizon. + +&#x200B; + +\* Commentary on the reasoning behind your current and desired allocation. + +&#x200B; + +The more information you can provide, the better answers you'll get! + +&#x200B; + +Top level comments not including this information may be automatically removed. If your comment was erroneously removed, please \[message modmail here\]([https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/CanadianInvestor](https://old.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/CanadianInvestor)). + +&#x200B; + +\--- + +&#x200B; + +Please don't downvote posts you disagree with. If a comment adds to the discussion, it warrants an upvote. +Im wondering how people on this board feel about Alimentation Couche Tard. When i looked at their data, i saw that the price of share hasnt gone up for the last 2 year, failed acquisition drove their price down significantly, the lock down had major impact on the business they do. Now looking forward, gaz price going up, major share buy back by insider, country reoppening and earning report that should be ok considering the situation. + +Would you say ATD will outperformed the index this years? Do you see them as a growth stock? +I have read quite a bit on here and elsewhere on the 4% rule but very little about how is it done is practical terms? If it is explained elsewhere I can't find it. + +**Assumptions** + +* I have hit my FIRE figure, quit my job and now ready to live solely on my investment income. + +* My portfolio is USD 1,500,000 fully invested in one index fund (VTI) and dividends have been reinvested. + +* Income Tax in 40% and Capital Gains is 30% (For simplicitys sake) + +**Questions** + +1. Do I stop my automatic dividend reinvestment? (presuming yes) + +2. How do I take out the 4% from my portfolio in practice? + +3. How will I be taxed (CGT & Income Tax)? + +Hi all, + +I'll jump straight to the point. + +I went behind enemy lines to gather some raw meme materials deep in the cuckold sub (GME meltdown). The harvests are usually bountiful but today was a bit special. + +At the risk of being downvoted to hell (please don't, I would really like some thoughtful discussion here ā˜¹), I wanted to throw some interesting "counter DD" I came across arguing that a stock dividend will not trigger a "short squeeze" like event. + +&#x200B; + +Try to see beyond the salt in their posts (which is so sweet btwšŸ‘Œ), and focus on their core points. + +[OP saying here that short sellers can just short the \\"share dividend\\" they have to provide for borrowed shares. Since a stock split decreases the stock price by the same magnitude \(a 2:1 dividend will decrease the price in half, all things equal\), the short sellers are $ neutral. This latter point is covered in a different comment by OP in the two screenshot below](https://preview.redd.it/05z3m3conct81.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6159e19fcc83955e801fc23820dcc037772d41b) + +First screenshot below, links from the picture: [(1)](https://preview.redd.it/n1y76mdaitq81.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5bd1db4ab0eb93f4a727731fb6e70dc71b914b3f) [(2)](https://preview.redd.it/9k9xswpzitq81.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=3445e750baac347137b99438789d591f324cfcd8) [(3)](https://preview.redd.it/ycz3hqfljtq81.png?width=657&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc29cb63b28c594003568b4cbd9a47ff2b055952) [(4)](https://preview.redd.it/mivj7s7nktq81.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=37c4d19236660a281a43704798d10c217f63f887) [(5)](https://preview.redd.it/4pmrrdk5ltq81.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ab9b38662ad13dda90ad883961461b000905d39) + +https://preview.redd.it/a27fw7utnct81.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=319bdf6329412c0538ebcd13499fb775c594bd71 + +Second screenshot + +https://preview.redd.it/pde2tjpxnct81.png?width=874&format=png&auto=webp&s=14bc5c48edb965e479bad80e6c679609501444e1 + +The same OP argues that stock dividends for TSLA didn't force shorts to close, claiming if it was that easy, then every heavily shorted stocks would pop from stock dividends across the board, and is the reason why Overstock had to take an unprecedent approach vis-Ć -vis crypto dividend. There are two graphs they allude/link trying to illustrate how stock dividend didn't make TSLA squeeze: [TSLA SI not dropping sharply after dividend](https://preview.redd.it/fr41cxjll4r81.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=471f503847fd22af4d2670619b9bc0ee880fc3b2) and [short interest over price](https://www.thestreet.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700/MTczODcyODM1OTY4NjQwMDY0/screen-shot-2020-07-10-at-30552-pm.webp), along with the bottom two comments. + +https://preview.redd.it/wsny893aoct81.png?width=840&format=png&auto=webp&s=54ca920d8b6a7cfdd2be44071a831aff5595595b + +https://preview.redd.it/dgtt1if4oct81.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=9784debbd502b5d9b0605291346bf18c7a69a458 + +All this definitely involves a more internal knowledge of market mechanics so I wanted to see what others have to say. Is this counter-DD wrong? If not, to what extent is it right? + +My opinion is that of the latest concrete stock-related developments announced so far (stock dividend + likely approved issuable shares to 1B), there is no way this is just it. I **highly doubt** RC & the Board would go **"*****\*poof\* here is the stock dividend X:1"*** end of story, nothing else. But then interesting questions start popping up as I explore. These are just internal musings. + + +* What is their intention for a stock dividend? Is it to counter-defend the short attacks on their stock? Or is that dead wrong, and it's purely a business decision. It is really only to make the stock more accessible, i.e., lower entry price? If so, is it because they anticipate a substantial appreciation in price soon or do they really think \~$150 is too high of an entry point? +* Would/can they restrict trading on the stocks given as dividends, making it so those distributed stocks are locked and can't be traded for X number of days? In that case, what are the implications for shorts and naked shorts? (again, back to my point on market mechanics) +* What options does RC Ventures have in these cases, and what downstream impacts would that have to shorts and naked shorts? What dynamics shape the potential plays, e.g. lockout periods? + +Apologies for the lack of memes....hoping to have some meaningful discussion here. +Why I am long VIX/ UVXY Callsā€¦ + +Picture thisā€¦ the year is 2022ā€¦ we just had the worst 6 months in market history since the 70sā€¦ yet somehow we are magically now having the best start to Q3 since the 80sā€¦ Does that make sense to you? No? Good! Keep reading my friend! + +Before we go any furtherā€¦ the ā€œYou cant TA the VIXā€ commentsā€¦ donā€™t hurt you little fingers typing thatā€¦ I tend to disagree and believe the VIX is very trending when it wants to beā€¦ + +https://preview.redd.it/nn2t3883pua91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=6606b63723c83936bd58c381d950146db734ef5f + +Here my friends is the Daily Chart of the VIX for all of 2022. What do you see? + +Green channel- this is where we spend a lot of the beginning of the January and February and briefly spent time in April. This range is 18.7 to 25.5. + +Orange channel- this is where we peak in Feb and March and spent almost all of May, June and July until last week. This ranges from 25.5 to 34.7 + +You also see we just broke major ā€œsupportā€ on the black dotted line last Thursday on the VIX. You also see we have been making lower highs on the VIX since January 24th we have not made a new peak. And we also havenā€™t made a recent higher high since May 2nd. + +Time wise- we have spent 53 days below 25.5 and we have spent 76 days above 25.5 this year that means 58.9% of this year has been spent with the VIX >25.5. + +Okay still with me here? + +Lets take a look at the KEY events coming this week and take a look at how the VIX reacted to them this yearā€¦ + + + +https://preview.redd.it/aymrhlcapua91.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9bb58425f9fccddb9a2be3ad3c20520e07ea39e + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/p4dmyubbpua91.png?width=626&format=png&auto=webp&s=923c0003680c89d6ee3c67f0e22e7a7f6df57cf5 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/r86wrhifpua91.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bc0c992dd6bf14c4f460318d3f3df898646bcec + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lqi16u5hpua91.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5a69edf238e0acafac5427f538f69a26d16063d + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/s242wgzipua91.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=058136b0a794342e83f1072ff0f99e9d824cadbd + +IF my calculations, predictions and overall suspicions are correct we should see the VIX ā€œbottomā€ tomorrow. Currently I have 24 as a support for the vix but It doesnā€™t have to hit that. We should then see the VIX rising from Tuesday July 12th until two days before FOMC on July 27th. + +This means Tomorrow should be loading time (anything in the 24s especially) and July 25th should be time to SELL. + +Current positions (picture below for proof) as UVXY August 19th 20C and August 16th 35C. I opened these last week when I saw the vix break the 26.7 trend line it has been holding onto since June 10th. However, I was on vacation/ had the wedding so I couldnā€™t properly sit down a do some TA/ DD like this to open a bigger position. Tomorrow morning I plan to add more to this position and let them ride until July 25th. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5py29k7npua91.png?width=663&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f7a5e894ad591468ad15e2ce5dd437346b74faf + +What does this mean for Spy, the markets as a whole and other stocks? Well most likely Friday was the PEAK and we are now getting ready for our next sell off. IF this truly is just like January and we are about to get the ā€œbig oneā€ and see ā€œcapitulationā€ finally this is the perfect storm and they have set the VIX up perfectly to do it. We are yet to get the holy shit the worlds ending VIX 40-60s, everyone dumping everything they have and full on capitulation that we need to reach a bottom. I think we were close June 8th to June 17th but we didnā€™t quite seal the deal. + +If my calculations are correct we are about to see the next Sell off from July 11th until July 25th and I suspect this when we see SPY hit 330-340. + +The one question that we donā€™t know the answer to yet and could be an even bigger catalyst to take SPY to the 200s is that we have GDP for q2 on July 28th (the day after FOMC) and IF this locks in a negative reading we are CONFIRMING we are in a recession. This with q3 earnings starting End of January is going to be either a MASSIVE downward or upward catalyst. + +On Monday July 25th (two days before FOMC) we have earnings from MSFT + +On July 26th (the day before FOMC) we have earnings from Google + +On July 27th (the day of FOMC) we have earnings from Amazon, Boeing, Ford, META (fb), Shopify, Pinterst, and Qualcomm. + +On July 28th (the day of GDP pre market) we have earnings from Apple and Intel + +The week of July 25th is going to be one hell of a wild week for the markets. With all these earnings (and a few notable ones like Tesla the week before), FOMC meeting and rate hike (many suspect we see 100bps depending on this weeks CPI) and the q2 GDP reading (which is expected to be negative) we are most likely going to see full on capitulation this week if we havenā€™t already seen it. I think one way or another the bottom is going to be put in the last week of July. + +What if im wrong? Whats the worst case scenario and time to cut bait on VIX/ UVXY calls? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vfhxvx7opua91.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=165e1517527d668b97df3e89df91ea9bc24c502c + +IF we were to get CPI this week to come in way under. I mean like 8.5% or less then MAYBE we donā€™t see the VIX rocket. That is about the only case I can see for the VIX to stay under 25 and not see the 30s or 40s by the end of the month. However, keep in mind.. the same people who told you that we were going to see peak inflation back in May is now EXPECTING the highest inflation yet at 8.8% consensus/ forecast. + +All I am saying is that the VIX has been behaving very fucky the last month and we got a very short spike before we all of a sudden dumped after the June CPI/ FOMCā€¦ Its almost like they wanted to get the VIX back under control and back to the low 20s before July. I think July is about to be capitulation month for SPY and the markets. +Thank you for accepting me to your group. About a month ago, I liquidated the majority of my savings into BTC to hedge against inflation for the upcoming economic crisis, which I think is going to happen soon, after talking to friends and colleagues. After reading about ETH though, I decided to exchange my BTC for ETH. Last week was rough, but I am definitely going to hold for the long term. I am pleased to see things are bouncing back, and I am hopeful for the future. Beats money sitting in my savings account not doing anything, or even worse, losing 2% per year (or more) due to inflation. + +To the moon! +Amazon reported its Q2 2021 earnings on Thursday after the closing bell. The company [reports](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210729006106/en/) a $15.12 earnings per share beating analysts estimates. Shares fell over 5% after hours. The company also falls short on its Q3 guidance. + +&#x200B; + +* **Revenue:** $113.08 billion versus $115.06 billion expected +* **EPS:** $15.12 versus $12.22 expected +* **AWS revenue:** $14.81 billion versus $14.18 billion expected + +&#x200B; + +https://risingcandle.com/marketnews/amazon-reports-q2-results-net-sales-up-27/ +When interest rates were low it made sense to pay any over payments into an index tracker rather than over pay your mortgage. + +With the base rate now at 3%, mortgages are getting more expensive. At what point do you say that the returns from the index tracker aren't worth it any more, and paying off the mortgage is preferable? + +Or do you expect index trackers to always return base rate + some kind of risk premium and therefore consider it always better to borrow at mortgage rates and invest in ISA index trackers? +With the new year upon us I was hoping we could create a large list of coins with actual utility. Not the Websters dictionary "used to purchase a good or service" and recycled back into circulation but actual value driven utility. A token where it is: + +\- necessary, i.e. part of the core of the crypto business + +\- required , i.e. users, clients, etc. must engage with the token + +\- valued, i.e. token must appreciate with increased usage due to tokenomics (not speculation) + +I am proposing that we limit responses to the following format and criteria: + +(TOKEN EXAMPLE) + +**Token Name:** EXAMPLE (ERC20) + +**Marketcap:** XXM + +**Supply:** Circulating XXM, Total XXM + +**Purpose:** What does the token do. What does the application or ecosystem do. Be brief. + +**Why is the token necessary:** Explain why the token is needed. + +**How is the token required:** Explain how businesses, users, etc. buy / utilize the token + +**What drives value:** Explain what gives the token value. What are the key tockenomics (burning, velocity, lockups, etc.) + +**Final Remarks:** Anything else you want to add + + I will post my token in the comments. I am hoping many of you will post similar coins with good tokenomics. + +Cheers +We are very excited to be able to accept [bitcoin](https://suicidegirls.com/join/method/bitcoin) and have high hopes for the future of new currency and the possibility it holds for merchants and consumers. +Hi, + +Looking for some advice. + +I understand SLC now deduct about 9% on salary and a further 9% on any extra payments i.e. a bonus. + +I received an annual bonus of Ā£920 before tax in April's wage. + +When I noticed my wage was far below what I was expecting I took a look at my payslip. + +Student Loan Company have taken their usual Ā£200 or so monthly payment, but there's an extra line on my wage slip for another Ā£1200 going to SLC. + +I was expecting an additional 9% to come off the bonus, so around Ā£80 - I certainly didn't expect to be paying Ā£300 or so MORE than what my bonus was - effectively I'm paid less this bonus month than I would be in a normal month. That can't be right surely? + +Looking for a bit of advice on here before ringing them up in case it's me that's in the wrong and I just need to swallow it - their wait times are currently insane to get through. + +Just to clarify: + +Normal SLC payment around Ā£200 was still deducted this month + +Extra payment taken this month of an additional Ā£1200 + +Have been employed and loan payment deducted every month for several years + +Yearly wage is above the repayment threshold, around double. +My husbands boss gave him a 1099 with almost $5000 more reported than what he actually paid and refuses to fix it. Does anyone have any idea what we can do to fix this? + + +Here we go, here we go! We are under the Delta Neutral (DN).... I repeat... we are under the Delta Neutral... + +This is where I trade this indicator, and we are in my world now.... the Upside Down DN World.... + +&#x200B; + +[do do doooo.....](https://preview.redd.it/7cylj5x1k6b71.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff5babd2fac7b7b66abf0a416ca2e2484c10f7f4) + +I've been showing you the log-based 10 graphs lately, because nothing super exciting has been happening, but here's a graph showing the DN up close and personal, showing we closed under the DN yesterday! + +&#x200B; + +[GME 1\/6\/2021 - 7\/13\/2021](https://preview.redd.it/9ftbjem0k6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=0916d523cf593eaf2737a62a5f8e8155e0ec4270) + +&#x200B; + +For Part I of this post, let me take you all the way back to FEBRUARY 2021.... the last time it happened... + +**PART 1 - THE FEBRUARY TRIP BELOW** + +It was a dark time... money lost... sanity drained... FUD everywhere... We all clung onto our hopes, DD, and each other. We all have our memories of that time long ago, and mine are held through the lens of the DN World. + +Let's see what happened: + +* First, the price tanks. Pick your reason why. We aren't covering that now. +* As the price tanks, hedgies are selling off loads of shares based on their OI, and helping the price continue to drop hard. +* As the price drops below the delta neutral, the IV is suppressed very quickly, as shown in the graph below. It also tanks from \~10.0 to bouncing around 1.0-3.0 within a WEEK + + * Check what happens when the price tanks in March. The IV has an initial spike, the settled into a 2.0-4.0 range for FIVE weeks before settling down further. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vonx8y6zj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=278e95650859b24575f3a813ca324a89b8852849 + +GME 1/4/2021 - 7/13/2021 + +* The IV also tanks under the DN, and ATM prices suddenly go on discount. The 30-day ATM prices go from $130-$155 at the peak (\~40% of Underlying Price), to $6-$11 by 2/5 (\~10% of Underlying Price). +* Call Prices are often lower than Put Prices at this time. Call prices look tasty to investors, because... STONKS GO UP! This is why stocks generally sit on top of the delta neutral. There are generally more call buyers than put buyers. + +Quick palette cleanser before we move on? + +&#x200B; + +[yummmm](https://preview.redd.it/qvbe41sxj6b71.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a659858dc3d25f1eb699a17dd7bedf8399b22fc) + +Ok, let's continue.... + +* By the crash, the put OI is monstrously huge. I know there's a lot of debate around this right now. My personal opinion is it's a mix of the following: + + * Come on.... the price went from \~$10 to almost $500 in a couple of months. People thought this thing was going to crash back down after it squeezed. It was a safe bet to buy puts on it. Not everything against GME is nefarious... + * I said not EVERYTHING.... There is some craaazy OTM put volume/OI during the January squeeze, that correspond to increase in those put prices, and the volume / OI ratio is waaaayy high. Again... personal conjecture here... but what if Citadel HF was selling those puts to Citadel MM, and Citadel MM executed their OTM positions, effectively forfeiting their premium. What does this do? It allows Citadel MM to give a cash injection to Citadel HF on the open market, gets around their firewall separating the two entities, and can take advantage of Citadel MM special privileges. + * I've heard all kinds of theories on other strategies for those OTM put OI's, and for me, it always comes back to: \* No, they're not going to do any strategy that involves buying a ton of stocks (\*cough\* married puts \*cough\*), because the point is they shorted it a ton, the stocks are hard to come by, and it's really expensive to do. \* Who's buying those teeny Puts? There are a lot of reasons someone would want to sell those puts, which is what most explanation boils down to. Hell.... I'd love for someone to buy a load of $0.50 puts from me, but seriously... who's buying them? That's how I came to the theory above. \* Feel like there's going to be some fights over this, but let's be honest... no one actually knows the answer to this question, it's all theories at this point. +* The Call OI has now dropped from 47% on 1/22 to 14% by 2/1. However, once the price drops under the DN, the Call OI starts building up fast, as in 35% - 66% increases within each week, while the put OI only increases around 0% - 2% each week, which makes the Call OI bangs up to 25% by the February bounce. + +Ready to find out what that fast build-up of Call OI did? + +or do you want another palette cleanser? + +&#x200B; + +[raaaawwwrrr](https://preview.redd.it/wbzkwf9wj6b71.png?width=760&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f5ac2937910087161c4c02f84440736752e0bd) + +Sorry... those come with the territory.... + +* Ok, so as all those people are buying up calls, the total market delta is going up, and hedgies are buying up more and more stocks because of it. + + * If you recall a few posts ago, I talked to you about the build-up of the total market delta. If you don't remember, [here's my post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o9qb4n/delta_neutral_update_any_meaningful_underlying/), or check the bottom for the details. + +The graph below summaries the total market delta share equivalents (dark blue) versus the underlying close price (green). + +&#x200B; + +[GME Total Market Delta Share Equivalent versus Underlying Close](https://preview.redd.it/vqfw7iuuj6b71.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=d81c3c58fe8eb0b3681407952987199d6bc330f3) + +You'll notice that total market delta increased significantly BEFORE the January and February/March squeezes. This helped to contribute to the buying pressure to push GME upwards. + +Ohhh and who do we have here? It's our good friend, GAMMA!! + +High ATM Gamma Factors makes everything nice and squeezy. Those factors increase right before significant increases, as shown in the table below. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/hwhh2hbtj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=86f8529521c1bf8ed2ce170fd349bf62618af04a + +GME Close/DN/ATM Gamma Factors + +Then once the Underlying Close Price hits the Gamma Maximum point and... + +&#x200B; + +[BOOOOMMM!!!](https://preview.redd.it/c8nc9y4pj6b71.png?width=2598&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f2a8b7c1074a129bc4c912dbe0bcec665471779) + +Ok, so all kinds of things happened in February, but I wanted to walk you through the general Life Cycle of stocks under the DN, using GME as an example. + +**TLDR - Part 1:** + +The life cycle of a stock under the DN generally consists of the following parts: + +* Underlying price drops below the DN +* IV decreases +* Call/Put prices decrease +* Stock price just dropped + stonks go up + calls look tasty = higher call buying +* Options sellers buy up stocks to hedge +* If you're lucky, your good friend Gamma shows up +* Bing, bang, boom, you're back over the DN. + +**PART 2 - STARTING THE JOURNEY BELOW** + +As we start on this adventure below the DN together, just remember that we are in this together and to always pay the ferryman. + +Let's quickly remind ourselves what's happening now: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/yttusvynj6b71.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbd870b866a4c302612bd3bce967c6c9f1a7e9fe + +* The price closed at $180.06 yesterday, compared to the DN of $188. +* The ATM put volatility dropped from 1.2 to 1.09 (lowest since 5/11), and I suspect the ATM call volatility will follow soon. +* The ATM option prices dropped around 5% today +* The total market delta equivalent shares is dropping with the price, and accelerating the drop as option sellers and selling off more and more shares +* The ATM gamma factor is low right now, and nothing particularly interesting is going on with the other gamma indicators + +How long will this take? + +* Retail could storm in at pre-market and buy the dip to bring it out straight away, and it would have nothing to do with these indicators. +* If hedging controls the volume, then it usually reverses in 1-3 days. When I trade this indicator, I plan for returns to be worth holding for 2 weeks. +* It is not common for stocks to sit under the DN for as long as GME did back in February, but we all know GME is a special one! + +Watch the following to signal a reversal: + +* A drop in IV/option premiums +* High call % volume/OI +* I'll be watching the other indicators, and will report anything interesting + +&#x200B; + +[To the moon for us all!](https://preview.redd.it/2telmucmj6b71.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8566faa09d186ce9b64db87c8a9f021a2a575eb) + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR - Part 2:** + +* Hold tight +* This part is fun +* Watch options if you want + +***Now it's time to tell you all the boring stuff....*** + +[wah waahhhh](https://preview.redd.it/bm1l5jikj6b71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a704e70bacf00d1f0fafeb6f144a1faf56b47fd) + +**Overview** + +In general, all stock indicators boil down to two things - reversion to the mean and momentum. Every trader wants to accurately predict these two forces better than other guy, and if you use different indicators than the other guy, that an give you an 'alpha' in trading if it's a better predictor. + +I make a lot of different indicators, but the two primary ones are the Delta Neutral and Gamma Neutral: + +* Delta Neutral (DN) - This helps identify **reversion to the mean**, and represents the underlying price that would create a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. In general, it acts like a floor to the underlying price, but if the price drops below the delta neutral, then it tends to shoot back up above that line. + + * This is generally how I trade my model. I watch for stocks that drop below the DN, and buy them, expecting for traders to identify that the stock is underpriced and will revert back to a higher level. +* Gamma Neutral (GN) and Gamma Maximum (GM) - This helps identify **momentum. The GN** represents the underlying price that would create a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date, whereas the GM represents the underlying price that would create the maximum gamma across the market. + + * In general, a sudden increase in gamma indicates a sharp upward in momentum that continues until that gamma drops. + * The GM seems to act like a ceiling, but fun things happen when the underlying crossing that threshold! + +This is my own personal 'alpha' that I developed for my own trading purposes, and am sharing with this community because it's given me back so much. This is not financial advice. I'm just a mathematician that likes to play with options data, and I am not a professional trader. + +***Methodology and Assumptions*** + +**Delta** + +The Delta of an option represents the expected change to an option's price based on a $1 change in the security's underlying price. For example, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2, then that call option price will increase by $0.2 if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001. Note that the price is also affected by gamma so will actually be higher than the $0.2 price increase estimated by delta, which will be covered later. + +Delta hedging is a trading strategy employed by market makers (MM's) to minimalize the directional risk associated with price movements in the underlying security. Traditionally, you can think of a MM buying 20 (0.2 x 100) stocks of the underlying security if the price increases by $1 (using the example above). However, it's important to note that hedge funds often use other derivatives to hedge, not just buying/selling stocks because it requires less capital to do so. However, these indicators can be used as a directional proxy for some of the MM behavior as the underlying price increases/decreases. + +The total market delta share equivalent represents the sum of delta x OI across all strikes/expiration prices in a given trading day. I will say it one more time, hedge funds are not actually holding this number of shares on a given day to hedge. They often hedge with other market derivatives. However, it can give us an indicator for hedge funds buying/selling underlying equity relativities. + +**Delta Neutral** + +The Delta Neutral price that creates a total market delta of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. It can also be though of as the intersection of a supply/demand curve for hedged stocks. See the "Methodology and Assumptions" section for full detail on how I develop this indicator. + +Notes below for general options on how the delta neutral interacts with the underlying price: + +* There is a large influx of call option purchases, because: + + * The call prices get less expensive as the underlying price approaches the delta neutral + * Stock prices usually rebound/revert back to the mean after large crashes, so the price often rebounds anyways. +* With the large influx of call volume, market makers have to start buying stocks to delta hedge, which turns the price back around and creates an upward trajectory. + + * Important note that hedgies often hedge with derivatives instead of buying stocks, so there isn't a 1-to-1 relationship between the delta and shares bought/sold by hedge funds. +* Historically, you can see that GME often bounces off the delta neutral prices during drops. The exception is the February drop. When the underlying goes below the delta neutral price, a lot of pressure builds up that results in a significant increase when that pressure is released. + + * Note this is the primary way that I trade my model. I made a scanner that looks for equities that fall below the delta neutral. + +**Gamma** + +The Gamma of an option represents the rate of change of the Delta of an option with respect to a $1 underlying price movement. From our example above, if the GME underlying price is at $100,000,000 and a GME $102,000,000 strike call has a delta of 0.2 and a gamma of 0.05, then that call option price would actually increase by $0.25 (0.2 + 0.05) if the GME underlying price moves up to $100,000,001. + +MM also hedge against gamma risk, but the impact of buying/selling securities to hedge is often much lower than the impact of delta hedging (also remember that they use derivatives to hedge too). However, you are probably familiar with gamma because of the "gamma squeeze" that happened back in January. A gamma squeeze happens when the underlying stock price begins to go up very quickly in a short period of time. This forces more buying activity from rapidly increasing deltas/hedging, which continues to inflate the price. + +**Gamma Neutral/Maximum** + +The Gamma Neutral price that creates a total market gamma of 0 across all GME options (all expiration dates) for a given date. The Gamma Maximum price creates the maximum total market gamma across all GME options. + +General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Neutral indicator behaves: + +* It acts like support/resistance between the delta neutral and the underlying, and typically bounces around between the two prices for most symbols (like we have seen with GME since April). +* It also goes crazy in periods of high volatility, as you can see by the very higher spikes. +* A gamma spike indicates the presence of POTENTAILLY slippery option market conditions, which COULD lead to a gamma squeeze. There were certainly spikes present back in January, but we had a few one-day false starts this last month. +* They are often triggered by high price movement in a day, which can lead to continue high growth if underlying volume supports it. +* Gamma spikes can also be triggered by unusual options purchases during the day. These are the one ones to find, because you can often catch the high increase waves before they actually start. +* If I'm trading this indicator, I often either wait for a gamma spike to continue for 2 days in a row and supported by increased volume. Otherwise, I invest straight away if I find a gamma spike just based on options movement (i.e. no significant underlying increase yet). + +General notes below for observations on how the Gamma Maximum indicator behaves: + +* It generally acts like a ceiling for the underlying stock value +* However, when the stock breaks through the gamma maximum, fun things happen! + +**Methodology** + +I write my own algorithms to produce the results above. The following lists some key methodology and assumptions I use: + +* I rely on daily options and stock summaries produced by [www.historicaloptionsdata.com](http://www.historicaloptionsdata.com/) +* For the Implied Volatility (IV), I use the following method: + + * Calculate the raw IV of the mid-point between bid/ask price at close. + * Calculate a ā€œblendā€ IV, which represents the IV where the call/put parity holds, i.e. where call delta ā€“ put delta = 1, using the same IV. + * Smooth the mid-point call/put and blend IV using a gaussian smoothing algorithm with a 20-strike window. + * Apply the smoothed call/put relativities to the smoothed blended IV curve + * Fill any missing values with a linear interpolation of the neighboring strikes. +* Using the final call/put IV estimates described above, I calculate my own Greeks. I like this source if you're interested in the formulas: [https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel](https://www.macroption.com/option-greeks-excel) +* For the total market delta and total market gamma, I rely on the OI x delta and OI x gamma for each strike price. + + * Note that the delta of a call is usually equal to (1 - put delta), so not adjustment is needed to the delta signs when calculating the total market delta. + * However, the call/put gammas are both positive based on the B-S calculation. If you're calculating the total gamma for a portfolio, or the total market, you have to add the call gamma and subtract the put gamma. +* To estimate the delta neutral and the gamma neutral, I have an algorithm that relies on the optimization toolbox in Matlab to identify an underlying price that achieve a total market delta and a total market gamma. +* Note that the IV would change with higher/lower prices for the delta/gamma neutral and the sensitivity tests, but the impact is not significant enough to make a meaningful difference and takes significant processing time to apply the IV curves. However, it is an important simplifying assumption to be aware of. +* Open Interest (OI) is always lagged one day for options summaries. The OCC releases final open interest on a given day, and it represents the OI for the close of the prior day. Therefore, the OI I get in my summaries on 6/28 does not represent the OI as of close on 6/28. It represents the OI as of close on 6/25. If you see a source like Yahoo give live OI throughout the day, they are only estimates, and their algorithm methodology for estimating the OI based on various price/volume movement is a closely guarded secret. Using the prior day OI is currently a limitation of the data available to me. + +*Disclaimer: With the recent debate on the sub, I've decided to label my posts as "Possible DD" until someone is able to peer review my work, and independently replicate it. So far, my only proof has been how it works in the field, which means it should not be blindly taken as truth. I think every writer should hold themselves to their own standards, and no one else's. Every aspect of my work is peer reviewed in real life, so this is my own standard. It's also the responsibility of every reader to judge the quality of content they read, and don't take anything at face value. To the moon for us all!* +Originally sourced by u/inverseyourself + +You heard what I said. On or around June 10th. I wouldn't be saying this unless I was 100% sure. Edit: Confirmed June 11th. + +This is because they said it themselves on their 10-K filed in March. First, go here: https://news.gamestop.com/static-files/55a92a3e-144e-4d2b-8ee6-930db9045593. + +This is their 10-K. Now, go to page 40. Now, look at the asterisk connected to Item 40 of the 10-K. + +ITEM 14. PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTANT FEES AND SERVICES\ ** The information not otherwise provided herein that is required by Items 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 will be set forth in the definitive proxy statement relating to our 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held on or around June 10, 2021 which is to be filed with the SEC pursuant to Regulation 14A under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. This definitive proxy statement relates to a meeting of stockholders involving the election of directors and the portions therefrom required to be set forth in this Form 10-K by Items 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 are incorporated herein by reference pursuant to General Instruction G(3) to Form 10-K. + +Did GameStop just drop one of the most important dates for this short squeeze event in an obscure footnote at the end of their 10-K? Yes. They didn't even mention it in the beginning. In fact, most of their 10-K eludes to the "Annual Shareholders Meeting" without putting a date at all. + +Last year, it was June 12th. See: https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-preliminary-voting-results-annual-meeting. This year, it's June 11th. See https://www.reuters.com/companies/GME.N/events . + +So, what does this mean? Hm, no idea. But I know that a share recall last year by some of the biggest shareholders led to GameStop going from $2.50 to almost $16 a few months down. You know, the thingy where shorts were covering their shorts! + +Last year, GameStop gave until April 20th for shareholders to count themselves as voters, i.e. the "record date." What that means is that brokerages had around two weeks to find all these shares being called back -- i.e. recalled. This explains the massive ramp up in volume prior to this date! + +Now, we all talk about this amorphous Texas law people are discussing in relation to the record date. First, a record date is simply the date by which voters qualify to vote if they actually own the shares i.e. not lent out. Second, what exactly is this Texas law? A few of you are saying that Texas law requires at least 60 days prior notice for the record date. A few others are saying SEC regs require 60 days for a share recall. NO. Guys, I call BS. I think both statements are wrong. LET'S CLEAR THE AIR: + +Here's the actual Texas statute, the Texas Business Organizations Code: + +Sec. 21.357. RECORD DATE FOR PURPOSE OF SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING. The record date for the purpose of determining shareholders entitled to notice of or to vote at a shareholders' meeting or any adjournment of the meeting, as provided by the directors in accordance with Section 6.101, must be at least 10 days before the date of the shareholders' meeting. + +See here: https://statutes.capitol.texas.gov/Docs/BO/htm/BO.21.htm + +Texas law actually says NOTHING about notice for this record date or a share recall. Rather, all it says is that the record date must be set AT LEAST 10 days BEFORE the annual shareholder's meeting. That's all, got it?! So let me repeat, the record date simply needs to be at least ten days prior to the shareholder's meeting. OK, in English: the record date where YOU need to have YOUR shares in YOUR legal possession to vote MUST BE AT LEAST TEN DAYS BEFORE the annual shareholder's meeting. + +Now onto notice. Last year, GameStop gave around 60 + days notice for the record date prior to the meeting. I know this because Justin Dopierla (DOMO dude) wrote about this date in his article on April 6, 2020, talking about the record date on April 20, 2020, for a shareholders meeting set on June 12, 2020. His brokerage basically on that day told him about the record date. We're right about that time now. Now, I'd link this article, but my DD yesterday was removed so many times, I'm not going to bother put it here. + +For more confirmation, I'm pretty sure I'm right about this. A corporate law firm wrote about this procedure in a handbook of theirs: + +III. SETTING THE RECORD DATE All state corporate statutes allow for the use of a record date to establish the persons eligible for notice of and voting at an annual meeting, whether as an alternative to or replacement of the closing of shareholder records for some time prior to the annual meeting. State corporate law generally allows the record date to be fixed in the bylaws of the company or established by a resolution of the board of directors. In addition, the record date must generally be no more than, nor fewer than, a fixed number of days before the date of the annual meeting. For example, under Delaware corporate law, the record date must be no more than 60, nor fewer than ten, days before the meeting date. See DGCL Section 213. Companies typically establish a record date far enough in advance to allow sufficient time for the solicitation of proxies prior to the meeting. Federal proxy rules require that companies contact institutional record holders at least 20 business days prior to the record date of the annual meeting to inquire whether other persons are the beneficial owners of the companyā€™s securities and the number of proxies and other soliciting material to supply to the record holder for such beneficial owners. See Rule 14a-13 of Regulation 14A. In February 2015, the NYSE amended its rules on the solicitation of proxies through member organizations, as set forth in Section 402.05 of the NYSE Listed Company Manual, to make clear that companies or others soliciting proxy materials through brokers must comply with Rule 14a-13 of Regulation 14A. + +Source: https://www.lw.com/thoughtLeadership/LW-annual-meeting-handbook + +Now, I'm sure a share recall, which is what folks are MOST interested in, follows soon after (keep in mind this is discretionary; but if they find it important to vote this year, they will). However, I think this procedure is going to be in GameStop's bylaws. If someone can find it, that'd be nice. These bylaws are released in tandem for the shareholders meeting, I believe. Edit: Found the bylaws but they don't mention. Probably just up to shareholders when they get notice of the record date. + +Here's a good example of Coca Cola's for their 2015 annual shareholder's meeting that actually discusses a recall procedure: + +A personā€™s ownership of shares shall be deemed to continue during any period in which (i) the person has loaned such shares, provided that the person has the power to recall such loaned shares on three (3) business daysā€™ notice; or (ii) the person has delegated any voting power by means of a proxy, power of attorney or other instrument or arrangement that is revocable at any time by the person. The terms ā€œowned,ā€ ā€œowningā€ and other variations of the word ā€œownā€ shall have correlative meanings. Whether outstanding shares of the capital stock of the Company are ā€œownedā€ + +Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/21344/000002134415000034/exhibit32.htm + +Let's bring this together. A record date to be announced soon -- with a possible recall (at the discretion of HUGE shareholders) -- with the stock hovering around $191, and the world's eyes on it, it may be a little more say, interesting this time? + +Disclaimer: not financial or legal advice. ape on a computer. + +Edit 1: June 11th confirmed. Thanks, fellow Apes. https://www.reuters.com/companies/GME.N/events . + +Edit 2: GameStop's bylaws found: + +This section discusses notice of the meeting to investors: + +SECTION 4. Notice of Meetings. Except as otherwise may be required by law, notice of each meeting of stockholders, whether an Annual Meeting or a special meeting, shall be in writing, shall state the purpose or purposes of the meeting, the place, date and hour of the meeting and, unless it is an Annual Meeting, shall indicate that the notice is being issued by or at the direction of the person or persons calling the meeting, and a copy thereof shall be delivered personally or sent by mail, facsimile transmission or e-mail, not less than 10 or more than 60 days before the date of said meeting, to each stockholder entitled to vote at such meeting. If mailed or delivered by facsimile number or e-mail, such notice shall be directed to such stockholder at his mailing address, facsimile number or e-mail address, as applicable, as it appears on the stock records of the Corporation, unless he shall have filed with the Secretary of the Corporation a written request that notices to him be mailed or delivered by facsimile transmission or e-mail to some other mailing address, facsimile number or e-mail address, as applicable, in which case it shall be directed to him at such other mailing address, facsimile number or e-mail address, as applicable. Notice of an adjourned meeting need not be given if the time and place to which the meeting is to be adjourned was announced at the meeting at which the adjournment was taken, unless (i) the adjournment is for more than 30 days, or (ii) the Board shall fix a new record date for such adjourned meeting after the adjournment. + +https://news.gamestop.com/node/14021/html + +Does not discuss recall procedure. + +Edit 3: GameStop's record date procedure: + +SECTION 4. Record Date. In order that the Corporation may determine the stockholders entitled to notice of or to vote at any meeting of stockholders, or to receive payment of any dividend or other distribution or allotment of any rights or to exercise any rights in respect of any change, conversion or exchange of stock or for the purpose of any other lawful action, the Board may fix a record date, which record date shall not precede the date on which the resolution fixing the record date is adopted and which record date shall not be more than sixty (60) nor less than ten (10) days before the date of any meeting of stockholders, nor more than sixty (60) days prior to the time for such other action as hereinbefore described; provided, however, that if no record date is fixed by the Board, the record date for determining stockholders entitled to notice of or to vote at a meeting of stockholders shall be at the close of business on the day next preceding the day on which notice is given or, if notice is waived, at the close of business on the day next preceding the day on which the meeting is held, and, for determining stockholders entitled to receive payment of any dividend or other distribution or allotment of rights or to exercise any rights of change, conversion or exchange of stock or for any other purpose, the record date shall be at the close of business on the day on which the Board adopts a resolution relating thereto. + +https://news.gamestop.com/node/14021/html + +Edit 4: Great explanation of voting rights when shares are shorted: + +Depending on who has the shares during the record date, that person gets the voting right. So if the loaned-out shares are not returned to the original owner by the record date, they do not get voting rights, only the investor that bought the shares when they were loaned out from an investor's margin account for the short sale does. Again, this is part of the margin account agreement. + +https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/shortsalevotingrights.asp + +Edit 5: Good article on why last year Vanguard, Blackrock and Fidelity chose not to recall their shares, because it was better for their investors to lend rather than to recall. Maybe that will change? + +The main reason for the disparity is that BlackRock Inc., Vanguard Group and Fidelity Investments chose to loan out substantial GameStop shares for the rich stream of fees their investors stood to gain, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Firms from Dimensional Fund Advisors to State Street Global Advisors made similar choices to give up their full voting power. + +https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-investing-giants-gave-away-voting-power-ahead-of-a-shareholder-fight-11591793863 + +Example of how huge shareholders decide whether to recall or not, re Blackrock: + +With regard to the relationship between securities lending and proxy voting, BlackRockā€™s approach is driven by our clientsā€™ economic interests. The decision whether to recall securities on loan to vote is based on a formal analysis of the revenue producing value to clients of loans, against the assessed economic value of casting votes. Generally, we expect that the likely economic value to clients of casting votes would be less than the securities lending income, either because, in our assessment, the resolutions being voted on will not have significant economic consequences or because the outcome would not be affected by BlackRock recalling loaned securities in order to vote. BlackRock also may, in our discretion, determine that the value of voting outweighs the cost of recalling shares, and thus recall shares to vote in that instance. + +Cannot link source - perma-bans the post because it's from alpha. + +Edit 6: Getting a few comments that I want to address + +1. Few of you are saying this is old news. In fact, the top trending posts on this matter still seem to not know the exact date of the shareholder's meeting. To that end, I'm finally clearing up that confusion once and for all. Thus, I believe this brings value. +2. I'm posting a date. Yes. Stop freaking out. This is a fact-based date. Whether or not anything happens is anyone's guess. That is absolutely not going to stop me from sharing fact-based info. And frankly, I think there's tremendous value. Here's why. GameStop is undergoing an incredible transformation. Imagine you had a twenty percent stake in GameStop. GameStop is electing new people to their leadership team. Wouldn't YOU want a say as a massive stakeholder for this very promising future? Perhaps, it is your fiduciary duty to act within the best interests of the investors of your fund, which, by then would mean voting?! Mind you, a fiduciary duty is a LEGAL duty to act reasonably within the best interests of the parties you're beholden to. Investment funds have a fiduciary duty to their investors. No question. That means this is an obligation, not a choice. If said act is within the best interests of your fiduciaries (here, the investors of said fund), you should do said act. Remember Vinny from the Big Short telling Mark to sell because they had a fiduciary duty? Perhaps in other years, the funds didn't give a damn. They were making so much money from lending, it made no sense to do so. Now, it seems different. +3. For the wrinkle-brained of you, you may be getting what I am insinuating. I am arguing that it may be actually a fiduciary duty to vote. With lending rates so low, it is no longer profitable for the investors to have the funds continue their prior model. Rather, said fiduciary duty demands these funds to recall shares and ensure GameStop has a bright future for the investors. Hey, they might blow this opportunity off. But this is my argument. +4. More ramblings: honestly, if you are a hedge fund short on this, what the hell were you thinking? I'm pretty sure hedge funds thought by this time around GameStop would be filing Chapter 11, so there would be no risk of share recall. I'm not going to roast them for that. That was an educated short play based on the fundamentals. But, I mean, think about it, if they shorted this knowing the true SI, a recall would be a death knell. I'm guessing they read GameStop's abysmal earnings reports during COVID and thought there was no chance GameStop was going to come out alive -- let alone for things to turn out like this. If they filed for bankruptcy, they wouldn't have to return the shares they borrowed. The problem is even after GameStop rose, they continued to short it. That was definitely just ego and likely their gravest error in all of this. Rather than placing a stop-loss, they just continued to play games. It may be that this is biggest royal fuck up in Wall Street history. If I am right, then their shorts are like puts, they have an expiration in April. These are just ramblings! +SO, I got a job! woohoo! I'm a recent grad (June 2020) that has applied to over 200 positions since then. The job market is incredibly tough right now, but after many interviews, I landed one. Here's the problem. The job is located in NYC, and I get paid 41,000 a year. My rent is $1300 and I can't get out of the lease. I was making more money in my internships which allowed me to pay for my apartment, but since I could not get anything in this market, I had to take lower pay. I start in January, but would it be wrong to start looking for a new one/potentially interviewing when I haven't even started? I work two other jobs to supplement my lower range income, which is a remote and lower skill. My *dream* is to quit those two so I can just have one and finally get weekends off after four years of working and paying tuition. Or should I just ride it out for half a year THEN start looking for jobs with higher pay since I'll have at least a bit more experience. +I am eyeing a few undervalued tickers (goog, fb, adbe, crm, amzn, sofi, trow, veev, now, tsm) that I'd like to load up on once this storm passes. Given a hypothetical $100k cash buying power would you go long on the stocks or buy LEAPS, and if so, why, and what delta and expiration? + +Morningstar rates these companies at least below 30% of fair value. If the market keeps on dropping, they'll be even a better buy. How does one maximize returns, given at least a 5-year horizon? Not trying to time the market here. + +Also any price targets for each ticker where you would consider it a buy would be appreciated. +I see people in streams commenting "at what point does the government stop the squeeze? I want to plan my exit strategy." This is absolutely FUD. I don't think rensole meant to create FUD but unfortunately it's starting to have that effect and paperhands (or perhaps shills) are starting to plan to sell on the way up "before the government stops everything." + +All of the exit strategy DD is telling you to sell on the way down and not on the way up because selling on the way up will bring down the ceiling. Now, we have a bunch of FUD and paperhands planning to sell on the way up because of panic that the government MAY step in. + +First of all, we don't know if the government will step in. The last time the GME rocket was stopped wasn't government intervention. It was Robinhood, Apex Clearinghouse and potentially the DTCC. None of these are government institutions, so stop saying the government stopped the January squeeze. Additionally, the government would cash in on a shit ton of taxes and funnel money into the economy that has been laying dormant in fat cats stock accounts. So, it's not really in the government's interest to stop the squeeze. + +Second of all, even IF the government were to step in because GME squeeze "causes" the market crash (as if that wasn't inevitable with or without GME), you're not going to get a better deal selling before they intervene. Let's say the price goes up to $100,000 and then the government says "enough of this." The shorts still need to cover and you still have the shares. Do you think the government is going to force you to sell at $1,000 when the stock is officially worth $100,000? No, they will give you $100,000 or people are gonna flood the supreme court (with lawsuits) if they don't riot. If the government steps in at $100,000 then everyone is gonna get $100,000 at minimum. If you sold at $10,000 worried you will only get $1,000 in case of government intervention you will be the sucker. + +Also, I don't think the government can actually force you to sell. So if $100k per share is too low for you (as it is for most apes), tell them "my shares are not for sale." Which puts them in a catch 22 situation again. Because shorts still need to cover and nobody's selling. + +Edit: Adding real Exit Strategy DDs, so apes can get a little more educated if they're planning their exit strategy + +If you are panicking about how to exit your position, read the Exit strategy DDs that have been at the top of God Tier DD for months. I recommend reading them ALL and not just one of them that you hardly understand. At minimum, read the first 2 technical Exit Strategy DDs, so you know how to read a chart: + +##Technical Exit Strategy DDs: + +u/NHNE's first Exit Strategy DD that uses MACD and Stochastic RSI indicators to separate fake dips from real downward momentum https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m0r4kg/gme_exit_strategy_here_is_what_i_not_we_i_am/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +u/WardenElite's Exit Strategy by recognizing triangles and predicting positive or negative breakout +https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m073v6/exit_strategy_dd_a_comprehensive_guide_to/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +optional: u/ChristianRauchenwald's DD about Elliot Waves āš ļøWarning: Elliot Waves are natural stock movements that may not be applicable to a highly manipulated stock like GME +https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m6cebh/why_10000_per_share_is_just_a_stop_along_the_way/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +##Less technical Exit Strategy DDs: + +u/NHNE's second Exit Strategy DD about What's an Exit Strategy and why it's important +https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m8nk84/important_all_apes_need_to_read_this_to_prepare/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +There are more but I'm having difficulty finding them + +How can last week be so green in the US given whatā€™s going on. The liquidity issue isnā€™t a concern anymore because of unlimited QE but that isnā€™t going to protect businesses and workers when they all go bankrupt. + +Corona death numbers are doubling every two days and itā€™s at 3k TODAY!!!!! By Easter itā€™ll be over 500k of deaths - how is the market going up - once the big money starts to sell the markets crashing +Interesting (American) article about the wisdom of telling people to cut out small spending habits like coffees. + +https://ritholtz.com/2019/04/buy-yourself-a-fking-latte/ + +I agree with his central point - if a coffee per day stops you from retiring, you've got bigger problems to worry about. But he misses a few crucial points. + +The *cumulative* cost of a coffee, and a phone contract, and not switching energy providers, and Spotify, and Netflix, and Prime, and a gym membership, and the wine of the month club, and.... It all adds up. + +Secondly, yeah, for some people a coffee per day is putting them in real financial hardship. If cutting out one thing for a year gets you out of your overdraft, or lets you build an emergency fund, then it is 100% worth it. +So basically what I want to pull off is to buy 1000 Twitter bots and spam Trump's Twitter page with my bag holdings and if he even once replies and mentions the name of said company I can get rich quick. It's not securities fraud if he does it right? So we wouldn't be committing a crime. Who is in? +I'm actually seriously considering this. +So basically what I want to pull off is to buy 1000 Twitter bots and spam Trump's Twitter page with my bag holdings and if he even once replies and mentions the name of said company I can get rich quick. It's not securities fraud if he does it right? So we wouldn't be committing a crime. Who is in? +I'm actually seriously considering this. +Hi folks ... I am pretty well diversified, I think, with appropriate weights in Canadian banks and other financials, power generation and similar infrastructure, transportation through CNR, CargoJet and EIF, Some American tech (Googl and Goog, and Apple) then a few "others" including Badger Daylighting, Magna. Some of these represent choices made a long time ago that I am happy with, but lately my strategy has been to find both a decent dividend (2% or higher) and an opportunity for growth (these once the fundamentals have been assessed, of course, and in the context of a company that I understand and whose leadership and direction make me happy). + +I have cash I need to put into play, or it is just going to go into a high interest account or a GIC. Would prefer Canadian as this helps balance out my partner's portfolio. Man, I am having problems finding Canadian stuff to buy. In many cases excellent stocks that fit my parameters look to me as though they have already had their run. + +I am old (!!) so pure growth plays don't make a bunch of sense to me at this point. But I am not dead (!!!) so fire and forget dividend plays also don't particularly appeal. + +So after all that ... what are your top picks, fellow Canucks? Is it just me or are the Canadian stock shops a bit bare right now? + +Thanks for any thoughts. +Given that there seems to be a large misconception of what market makers are, I felt it prudent to share some information. I often here the phrase "the market makers just want to take your money and keep the stock away from $X price." This is inherently incorrect. + +Market making is the identification of buyers and sellers with the intention of allowing them to consummate transactions. It is all done algorithmically. + +Exchanges offer rebates to market makers in exchange for those market makers providing liquidity in different markets ā€“ they will pay MMs to hold short or long positions that provide liquidity in the market + +**Example:** A person wants to sell her stock for $51.00, but the current best offer (bid) is $49.00. If another market participant was desperate enough to purchase the stock, they would just move the bid to the ask. In this case, the liquidity provider is the participant who posted the $51.00 ask, meaning that they provided supply of that stock, which was sold. + +If the algorithm decided that the fair price was $50.75 and the buyer was satisfied enough to purchase the asset at $50.75, the transaction would be consummated, and the seller would receive a rebate (in the form of a payment for their order flow) + +Some of this fee would come from the buyer (in the form of commissions, hence why when you hit the bid or ask, you are charged a higher fee with most brokerages, but when you leave your order open at the bid or ask and it is taken up on, you pay a lower commissions since you helped to provide liquidity) + +There is essentially an algorithmic hunt for rebates occurring. + +[Diagram depicting Market Maker activity in a transaction](https://preview.redd.it/h7mh5rifjem51.png?width=1504&format=png&auto=webp&s=1f810d26d65dcf94e103e0d31cf86d90edb5bff0) + +In the options markets, for instance, MMs are now holding the majority of the positions that buyers and sellers are trying to either accumulate or offload. + +These market makers are much more important because of their size and due to their large positions, which they are required to hedge to maintain delta neutrality. + +Given the institutional mindset, which is to generate income passively by selling call options or buying puts on SPY, for instance, a situation is created whereby market makers who are hedging are compressing volatility as markets move higher (hence why the VIX declines steadily into market rallies). + +Conversely, **market makers cause exaggerated selloffs when the market declines, which is why markets fall so much faster than they tend to rise, because they rapidly attempt to hedge their positions that they are short on the way down.** + +Market makers basically create pressure points in the market through their activities and they exert the most pressure when rapid moves occur, further amplifying these moves. + +Some of the largest market makers are: Virtu Financial, Citadel Securities, Two Sigma Securities, Susquehanna, Tower Research Capital, Jump Trading, DRW, Hudson River Trading, among others. + +Hope you found this useful and Godspeed. +If the Democrats win the mid-term election, how will the DOW and S&P markets react? + +Would it make more sense to sell before then and buy on the dip? +I created this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FU9z1mZdeOH5rEvvhJhwkcODC9XNAqTYKw4Kfy3KPUw/edit?usp=sharing) a few months ago. I got the data about price-to-rent yields from zillow and got the vacancy rates for different counties from the american community survey. There seems to be a lot of places with insanely high rental yields. Is something wrong with the data or is there a really big cost am not counting for? I'm only accounting for vacancy rate, at the moment. Another thing I found was that states with more millionaires had lower real estate yields. + +&#x200B; + +I also created a simple machine learning model that can to some extent predict future county-wide prices. I'm thinking I could make really good predictions if I made a really advance model. + +&#x200B; + +Is there something I am missing? +Hey everyone! I manage a few rental properties and have gotten to the point where Iā€™m considering accepting cryptocurrency, specifically BTC, or ETH as a form of payment for rent. I wanted to know if anyone out there had experience in doing the same thing? + +If so, how did you go about doing so? Are you still accepting it? If not, is it something you would consider? +Hi folks! My situation is that I have enough money to last the rest of my life, but I am still interested in taking on interesting projects (for me, interesting == having an impact on climate change). I recently started working with a company that wants to pay me a salary, and I'm trying to figure out if I can just have that entire amount deposited into, e.g., my DAF. The goal is to maximize my charitable giving, and minimize what I pay in taxes. + +Has anyone on this sub done anything like that before? I've heard of folks donating their entire salary before, but I can't tell if there's a tradeoff between: +1) Giving up control over which organizations get the philanthropic benefits +2) Retaining control, but paying some amount of that money as taxes + +Would appreciate any tips or tricks -- thanks! +\^\^\^ + +We're looking to get our first home and have saved up quite a bit. In order to keep our monthly payment as low as possible and pay off our mortgage as quickly as possible, we're looking closely at doing a 15yr mortgage vs. 30yr mortgage. From what I understand, this isn't necessarily common, but I feel we can afford to do so. + +Annual household income is around $300k, pre-tax. We're currently saving $130k annually across savings, investments/retirement. + +Can anyone let me know why this might be a bad idea? Or is it a good idea? + +Any comments are helpfulā€”thanks in advance for checking out the post. +I'm a 35-year-old woman in L.A. who makes $16.50/hr at a temp admin job. I have a BA in journalism (2013 grad), but I have ZERO work experience, not even internship experience. + +**WORK HISTORY BETWEEN SUMMER 2018 AND FALL 2020** (Let me just say that I absolutely, 1000% tried desperately to keep all these jobs. I was a nervous wreck at my jobs. I even studied notes at home to try to learn the different processes, but I just didn't get up to speed fast enough in the minds of my supervisors): + +1) Wax salon receptionist for **THREE DAYS**. Fired for not learning the job fast enough/not being a good fit. + +2) Admin asst/receptionist at a CPA's office. **Fired after FOUR DAYS** - again, the reason for termination was that I just wasn't "getting it" fast enough. + +3) Admin job (TEMP) at an autism learning center. **Fired after TWO WEEKS** because I asked about the internet usage policy and the office manager took that as gossiping/inappropriate discussion. + +4) Admin job at a trucking company. **Fired after THREE WEEKS** for not "getting it" fast enough. + +5) Admin job at an electrician's office. **Fired after FOUR MONTHS** because I kept making mistakes and still hadn't gotten the job procedures down pat. + +6) Non-profit admin job. There for **ONE MONTH** until COVID closed the place down. + +7) Admin job at a hearing aid clinic. **Fired after ONE MONTH** - "not a good fit." + +**DEBT**: About $24,000 (car payment, school loan, back taxes, and credit card I lived on while unemployed). + +I have about $6,000 in my bank account, living rent free at the moment but will need to move out around April/May. (Studio apartments in L.A. typically go for about $1,500) + +Would you recommend paying $1,399 to take a three-month-long vet assistant class? Should I instead use the degree I already have and work on writing samples to apply for content writing jobs; save that $1,399 and put it toward renting an apartment? OR, would this be a good investment in a career with potential? +It was a very hard moment for me, but I was minded by the great Andreas Antonopoulos, it takes discipline to be a good trader. + +Buying when everything feels down is tough, but necessary if you want to profit. This is the most important mantra: buy when most people are selling, sell when most people are buying. + +I was trying to figure out why it was so hard. I made a very good multiple on my original ethereum investment. I should be happy realizing those profits. I realized it was my greed to follow everybody else. Otherwise I'd be missing out. + +What we're seeing today is our generation's .com bubble. When people are throwing hundreds of millions of dollars at eight pages of white paper, it doesn't take a genius that maybe, just maybe, each of those pages aren't worth $25 million each. + +I do believe that one day, ethereum will be the transformative vehicle for new companies that will mint the next Google and Facebook. It'll be the agent that will change our lives as we know it. + +But that day is not today. Fortunes will be lost and lives will be ruined. + +There are so many obstacles that ethereum has yet to tackle. Enacting a transformative change from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake, the chances of finding a show stopping bug in smart contracts, even just a whiff of one of the giant ICO companies imploding is enough to get weak hands to fold. + +And there are so many weak hands in ethereum. + +The vast majority of people investing in ethereum and ICO's haven't had the bitter taste of an equity dropping to 10% and having the discipline to hold on. + +How do you have confidence a bridge will hold when a 200-ton semi truck drives across? When 200 of those trucks have already driven across. + +Bitcoin has been around for 8 years. It has weathered attacks from the most determined hackers, gone through 3 of the largest crashes in equities, stood under scrutiny by the US government and yet it stands. + +I know this for a fact. Bitcoin will be around post BIP-148. Bitcoin will be around next year. Bitcoin will be around the next decade. I'll sleep easy tonight knowing that my Bitcoin stored in my trusty Trezor is mine to keep, out of the 21 million that will ever exist in human history. + +To plagiarize one of my favorite quotes: + +Ethereum is the fancy McMansion in Sarasota that starts falling apart in a few months. Bitcoin is the old stone building that stands for centuries. I cannot respect someone who doesn't see the difference. + +. + +**EDIT:** I've been getting some very kind messages from you guys and have been encouraged to write more. I've set up a new Twitter account that'll post short thoughts and will let you know when more meaty writing is available. + +Short form: [https://twitter.com/uncapslock](https://twitter.com/uncapslock) + +Long form: [https://medium.com/@uncapslock](https://medium.com/@uncapslock) + +. + +**Thoughtful readings for your consideration** + +* "The hard problems": [https://blog.blockstack.org/the-road-ahead-for-ethereum-b5b090bcd1a](https://blog.blockstack.org/the-road-ahead-for-ethereum-b5b090bcd1a) + +* "I was wrong": [https://medium.com/@WhalePanda/i-was-wrong-about-ethereum-804c9a906d36](https://medium.com/@WhalePanda/i-was-wrong-about-ethereum-804c9a906d36) + +* "Losing sleep": [https://medium.com/@tuurdemeester/im-not-worried-about-bitcoin-unlimited-but-i-am-losing-sleep-over-ethereum-b5251c54e66d](https://medium.com/@tuurdemeester/im-not-worried-about-bitcoin-unlimited-but-i-am-losing-sleep-over-ethereum-b5251c54e66d) +Speculation concerning corporate raider Carl Icahn purchasing a stake in **GameStop** (NYSE:[**GME**](https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/gme-stock-quote/)) abounds after activist investor and GameStop Chairman Ryan Cohen posted a picture of the pair on **Twitter** (NYSE:[**TWTR**](https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/twtr-stock-quote/)). GME stock is up 3.5% so far today in the wake of Cohenā€™s post. + +pic.twitter.com/n2xaaV2Lej + +ā€” Ryan Cohen (@ryancohen) October 18, 2022 + +Cohen rose to the spotlight after selling **Chewy** (NYSE:[**CHWY**](https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/chwy-stock-quote/)) to **PetSmart** for $3.55 billion in 2017. He entered into meme stock territory in August 2020 after purchasing 5.8 million shares of GME stock, equivalent to 9% of shares outstanding. + +In January 2021, he was appointed Chairman of the video game retailer. As of March 22, he owns a total of 36.4 million shares of GameStop through his investment firm, **RC Ventures**, making him the largest shareholder. + +Meanwhile, Icahn has been in the public scope for much longer. He founded his first fund, Icahn & Co., in 1968 and later founded Icahn Partners in 2004. Throughout his career, he has taken significant stakes in companies like **Netflix** (NASDAQ:[**NFLX**](https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/nflx-stock-quote/)), Blockbuster and **Lyft** (NASDAQ:[**LYFT**](https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/lyft-stock-quote/)), which led to his reputation as the corporate raider. + +Icahn stopped managing money for outside investors in 2011 and runs a private hedge fund. However, investors can invest in his company, **Icahn Enterprises** (NASDAQ:[**IEP**](https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/iep-stock-quote/)), which has an annual dividend yield of 15%. + +## GME Stock: Picture of Ryan Cohen and Carl Icahn Stirs Speculation + +Speculation is just speculation until it is confirmed, and neither party has issued word on Icahn taking a stake in GME stock. However, retail participants have taken it upon themselves to imagine the possibilities that could arise. One **Reddit** user posted three scenarios that could potentially occur: + +* Icahn takes a stake in GME. +* Cohen and Icahn will spin off **Bed Bath & Beyondā€™s** (NASDAQ:[**BBBY**](https://investorplace.com/stock-quotes/bbby-stock-quote/)) Buybuy Baby brand. In August, Cohen sold off his entire BBBY stake of about 9.4% million shares, representing an 11.8% stake. +* Cohen will merge GameStop with Baby with Icahn subsequently taking a substantial stake. + +Icahn has dealt with retail businesses in the past and boasts a net worth of $18.3 billion, which sits at number 36 on the *Forbes* 400 list. As of the second quarter, his 13F portfolio had a value of $20.86 billion. His own company, Icahn Enterprises, accounts for 64.06% of his portfolio. + +Only time will tell if Icahn actually takes a stake in GME stock, so investors will want to keep an eye out for the latest updates. + +[https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/is-carl-icahn-about-to-buy-gamestop-gme-stock/ar-AA136mQp](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/is-carl-icahn-about-to-buy-gamestop-gme-stock/ar-AA136mQp) +Do you agree? I certainly do! + +Financial Institutions will be a thing of the past. Maybe not this decade but it will be. + +This will all make Ethereum the greatest investment of human history. + + +[Quote](https://medium.com/blockchain-for-everyone/defi-a-new-way-of-financing-22f132550bba) +Well, I have all but officially been screwed by Voyager. I didnā€™t listen to the warning. I didnā€™t read the small print. Bad things happen, we can either get angry or learn. Iā€™m going to learn. + +Starting the DRS process now. + +If youā€™re reading this and havenā€™t DRSā€™d yet. Please donā€™t wait. I lost a lot. More than I can afford to lose in Voyager. I thought it was safe. Itā€™s not. Get it tangible in your hand and/or in your name. Things are going to get much, much uglier. +Hello fellow crypto enjoyers. + +We all know the rules of crypto investments. One of those rules, for the new people around here, is Ā«Ā You shall only invest what you are not afraid to looseĀ Ā». + +But realistically, we all know thereā€™s a lot of people that invest a lot more than what they can afford to loose. + +Personally, Iā€™m a pretty broke student, and 70% of my capital is in crypto. If I happened to loose that, I would be basically homeless pretty soon ! + +So, if all crypto fell to 0$ or something close to that, how deep in the mud are you ? This can also serve as a reminder to be careful about the projects you invest in. +The dirty bastards at Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (ā€œFinCENā€) US Dept of Treasury just posted on the Federal Registry a new regulation to require US Exchanges to not let you send your crypto to an offline (re: address outside the exchange) address unless your tell them whom owns the wallet. + +The did this over the Christmas & New Year Holidays to bury it. Normally there is a 60 day window. Now it is only 12 "In the interest of National Safety". TOTAL BS. + +When you hit the hot link below you will get a page with a green button--click on that to leave a comment. Your comments will be read by lawyers. Be professional. If you don't stand up for your Privacy Rights NO ONE WILL. + +DO IT! + +HOTLINK TO FED REGISTRY: [https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/12/23/2020-28437/requirements-for-certain-transactions-involving-convertible-virtual-currency-or-digital-assets](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/12/23/2020-28437/requirements-for-certain-transactions-involving-convertible-virtual-currency-or-digital-assets) + +SITE SCREENSHOT: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6eufqkfn30761.png?width=1054&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c07ff6579ce998c76a61b3f8e58c45a0651b171 +**INTRO** + +I have been researching a lot of factor investing techniques, and have come to the conclusion that most of the factors investors use are wastes of time. Most signals lose merit when empirically scrutinized, and those that remain do not seem trustworthy over decade-long investment windows. + +Except for momentum. For some reason simple momentum investing seems to be the one factor that remains consistent YoY, all for the simple reason that companies and economies that have done well in the past will typically continue to perform well in the future, and vice versa. + +X-day moving average (definition): the average closing price of the stock for the past X days. So a 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the fund for the past 200 trading days. + +**TECHNIQUE** + +Here's a simple method for momentum investing I've devised (IE: shamelessly copied from people smarter than myself): + +1. Once per month look at the moving average of your favorite major stock market index fund (I use [Vanguard's $VT](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VT)) using one of the many free stock statistics sites on the web (like [BarChart.com](https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/VT/technical-analysis)). +2. If the price of the index fund is above its moving average then invest in it. If the price of index fund is below its moving average then move these funds into safe government bonds. + +That's it! + +**DATA** + +Momentum trades since 2008 using differing moving averages (MAs) in $VT (Vanguard Total World Stock ETF): + +|**100-day MA**|**150-day MA**|**200-day MA**|**300-day MA**|**350-day MA**| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|BOUGHT May 09|BOUGHT May 09|BOUGHT June 09|BOUGHT Aug 09|BOUGHT Aug 09| +|SOLD Feb 10|SOLD June 10|SOLD June 10|SOLD June 10|SOLD June 10| +|BOUGHT April 10|BOUGHT Aug 10|BOUGHT Aug 10|BOUGHT Aug 10|BOUGHT Aug 10| +|SOLD June 10|SOLD Sept 10|SOLD Sept 10|SOLD Sept 11|SOLD Sept 11| +|BOUGHT Aug 10|BOUGHT Oct 10|BOUGHT Oct 10|BOUGHT March 12|BOUGHT March 12| +|SOLD Aug 11|SOLD Aug 11|SOLD Aug 11|SOLD June 12|SOLD June 12| +|BOUGHT Jan 12|BOUGHT Feb 12|BOUGHT Feb 12|BOUGHT Aug 12|BOUGHT Sep 12| +|SOLD June 12|SOLD June 12|SOLD June 12|SOLD Jan 15|SOLD Sept 15| +|BOUGHT Sept 12|BOUGHT July 12|BOUGHT July 12|BOUGHT March 15|BOUGHT August 16| +|SOLD July 13|SOLD Feb 14|SOLD Oct 14|SOLD August 15|| +|BOUGHT Aug 13|BOUGHT March 14|BOUGHT Nov 14|BOUGHT August 16|| +|SOLD Feb 14|SOLD Oct 14|SOLD Jan 15||| +|BOUGHT March 14|BOUGHT Dec 14|BOUGHT March 15||| +|SOLD Oct 14|SOLD Jan 15|SOLD Aug 15||| +|BOUGHT Dec 14|BOUGHT March 15|BOUGHT May 16||| +|SOLD Jan 15|SOLD July 15|SOLD April 18||| +|BOUGHT March 15|BOUGHT April 16|BOUGHT May 18||| +|SOLD July 15|SOLD Nov 16|SOLD July 18||| +|BOUGHT Nov 15|BOUGHT Dec 16|||| +|SOLD Jan 16|SOLD April 18|||| +|BOUGHT April 16|BOUGHT June 18|||| +|SOLD Nov 16|SOLD JULY 18|||| +|BOUGHT Jan 17||||| +|SOLD March 18||||| +|**Total trades:** 24|22|18|11|9| +|**Trades** **per** **year:** 2.7|2.4|2|1.2|1| + +**BACKTEST** + +Here's how the 300-day MA would have performed against buy and hold for $SPY: [https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/5/files/2012/11/DRUS11-13-12-1.png](https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/5/files/2012/11/DRUS11-13-12-1.png) ([**source**](https://dailyreckoning.com/a-better-way-than-buy-and-hold/)). That's a 15-year return of 74.3&#37;, almost double the return of simply buying and holding the S&P 500. BUT this return &#37; does *not* consider taxes (see observation #6 below). + +**OBSERVATIONS** + +1. This technique is wonderful for avoiding massive drops to the stock market while still being invested in the majority of its gains. Imagine being completely in stocks in 2017, but completely out of stocks during the entirety of 2008! +2. It's pretty low maintenance. On average, the 200-day MA of $VT trades just 2 times/year! +3. **The longer used MA, the less risk/reward/work.** The slower the MA is to respond to trend changes. So you're talking about less return and lower volatility. Example: when the global stock market tanked in late 2015, the 300-day moving average would have safely moved to bonds in August. In contrast, the 350-day moving average would have waited to sell until September, a month later, meaning an entire extra month of losses vs the 300-day. +4. **The shorter used MA, the more risk/reward/work.** For the 100-day moving average of $VT, the number of trades since the 2008 crash balloons to 24, an average of 2.7 per year, with many years having 4 trades per year. And a lot of those trades are whipsawed trades when the market is really moving sideways, making you do a bunch of work that really isn't necessary, and some of those trades mean moving out of the market when it's going up, missing out on a bunch of gains. +5. The data above seems to show **the sweet spot is 200 trading days** (200-day MA). This seems to be a somewhat decent spot to grab the trend when it changes, but to not get too chopped up when the market spends a season moving sideways. +6. Taxes are the one factor here which makes this approach earn less money than buy and hold. You're trading at least once almost every year here, so you're almost always going to be paying short-term capital gains tax, which is a pretty big hit to your overall return. That said, a few years (2013, 2017) are trade-free, so you have the occasional long term cap gains trade. +7. Because of tax inefficiency, buy and hold does seem the ideal approach for maximum profit. However, buy and hold does this by leaning on your emotions. In the 2008 stock market crash you would have experienced single digit losses with a 200-day MA approach. Compare this to buy and hold with its 50&#37; drawdown (intra year). Imagine the wonderful feeling of being 100&#37; in government bonds while everybody else is covering themselves in sackcloth and ashes and going through marital stress. +8. The bond allocation is probably going to be [$VGIT](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VGIT), Vanguard's intermediate term government bond ETF. + +**CONCLUSION** + +I don't think I'll use this approach as my main investment, since it doesn't take advantage of long-term capital gains tax rates, and thus has a lower overall return compared to simply buying and holding. However, I am strongly considering this as a major part of my overall portfolio. Perhaps 40&#37; of my entire stock allocation. So that would be 40&#37; momentum investing via the 200-day MA of $VT, and 60&#37; in my regular buy and hold in index funds. \[Note: I'm young and still have many decades of earning potential.\] + +**TL;DR:** Momentum investing with major index funds is simple, requiring about 2 trades per year. Once per month (no more! no less!) look at your favorite major index fund. If the 200-day moving average is below the fund's price, be 100&#37; invested in it. If the 200-day moving average is above the current price, safely move this allocation into 100&#37; bonds. Stick to your rule! In doing so, you will enjoy healthy stock returns while avoiding the majority of market crashes, sleeping better at night during major market turmoil. +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-21/bank-of-america-chooses-dublin-for-main-eu-hub-after-brexit + +Why do you think a large American bank favored Ireland? +It seems people buy QQQ for the tech tilt but why is this the general go-to? Thereā€™s no guarantees it will stay this way and you may see more tech companies listing on the NYSE instead of the nasdaq one day. I see some advantages to QQQ given it is technically a broad index and it has performed well no doubt. + +But are there better options than QQQ like MGK or VGT? VGT seems bad given it has 40% in two companies. Or are there other reasons you or other people you know prefer it? + +Edit: Iā€™m referring to buy and hold. Iā€™ve often seen people go 50% VOO / 50% QQQM +Were a lot of people ringing alarm bells? Or was it completely out of left field? + +I was in college at the time, and was living in my own bubble. +Iā€™d be curious to hear the perspectives from the ones whoā€™ve lived through it. + +I feel like right now, a lot of talking heads are warning abt recession- but the contrarian in me makes me feel like that means weā€™re not irrationally exuberant, so maybe all this uncertainty is priced in? + +Iā€™m currently making offers on a new house, and am wondering if I should pump the brakes to see if prices drop- but who knows. (Mid sized Florida City) +Hi guys, + +Girlfriend accepted a full time job as a receptionist, her salary is 45k yearly before tax plus super. + +Her working hours are 830-530pm monday-friday, with one hour unpaid meal break. + +I've worked out not including her unpaid break she's on an hourly wage of $23... + +The aus minimum wage is $753 for a 38 hr week, or $19.84 an hour... + +Is this normal for receptionists? I feel bad that I can get any unpaid labour job for well above award rates of $26/hr with the labour shortage and I feel bad for her, hell you could make more working night shift at maccas... + + Any receptionists who could share insight I to salary progression and career paths would be appreciated... + +Based in melbourne +I have \~$25,000 sitting in my (100%) offset account, and from my understanding thats just as good as if i like, paid that into the loan as extra repayments, but with the ability to very easily take the money out. Is that correct or am i missing something? +I just finished reading "Beating the Street", and I was inspired to visit the local mall (The Eaton's Centre) to do some research. Here are my notes. If you have your own observations or opinions about these public companies, please share! + +All of these observations are from between 1:30 PM and 3:30 PM on a Saturday, specifically 2018-09-01. + +I have not done any analysis here, just looking how busy places are / whatever else catches my eye. + +Not all of these are publicly traded on the TSX; I focused my search on anything publicly traded in general. Some are subsidiaries of publicly traded companies. + +&#x200B; + +Shoppers Drug Mart + +* \~25 customers +* Regular flow in/out +* Some people just there for the post office, which is at the very back +* Makeup section not busy in general, but what looks like the cheaper section is fairly busy +* \~4 employees for makeup, \~5 employees for the ordinary store + +Aerie + +* Busy. + +MAC + +* Dead. Maybe one customer +* 4 employees +* Their large location is currently closed and under renovations, the active one is tiny. + +Abercrombie Kids + +* Pretty dead. + +GNC + +* 4 Employees, typically \~1 customer +* Good sales rapport with customers. At least one sales guy seems to "lift", and I think he's a draw for advice/etc. + +Nike + +* Pretty busy + +Microsoft + +* Busy, but they have a lot of employees +* \~ 11 employees to 8 customers + +The Source + +* First location + * 8 employees, 3 customers. Would hate to walk into here with so many idle sales people, don't like to be bothered +* Second location + * \~6 employees, 6 customers, some grouped + +T Booth + +* \~4 customers, 3 employees + +H & M + +* Kids + * moderately busy +* Ordinary + * busy + +American Eagle + +* Busy! +* Mostly teens; they are concentrated in the section that has the sales +* Some 30-40s people too +* Good flow in/out + +Footaction + +* Kicks Lounge + * 2 employees, 4 customers +* Adidas Collective + * 4 customers, 2 employees +* Main store section + * 12 customers / 6 employees +* Fairly active; between 1:40 and 3:30 it stayed busy +* One customers appears to have bought in bulk; at least a dozen pairs! Doesn't look like the target demographic. Shoe price speculator? + +Starbucks + +* 22 customers, 8 employees +* Busy. However, the employees are handling the work load and don't look stressed +* Later in the day it was busy as fuck, but the employees were still handling it just fine + +Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory + +* 3 customers, 4 employees. not busy. +* Later in the day, no customers + +Freshii + +* 3 customers / 2 employees +* Customer flow seems steady, stays around 3 customers (1:45 PM) +* Employees look overwhelmed +* 3:30 PM - 1 customer, 3 employees + +La Senza + +* Attracting people at the front with a "wheel of fortune". I saw someone win, and it bought in onlookers +* The employee working the wheel is hustling, and she was still hustling hard an hour and a half later +* Busy store + +Wireless Wave + +* Active, ish + +Lids + +* 7 customers, 5 employees +* Fairly busy. People look like they are having a good time. +* Hard to tell the difference between a customer and an employee, pretty laid back. + +Yogen Fruz + +* 8 customers, 5 employees +* Pretty busy +* Good flow +* Employees seem to be handling it + +Foot Locker + +* 35 customers, 7 employees +* BUSY. +* Good flow + +Sketchers + +* Moderately busy + +Reitmans + +* Older crowd +* Slow + +Steve Madden + +* Customers checking their phones, looks like they are comparing prices +* Moderately busy. Stayed moderately busy an hour later. +* Second location, pretty dead + +People's Jewlers + +* Dead. An hour later, still dead. + +Gap + +* Busy + +Hollister + +* Busy + +Sunglass Hut + +* Not many customers per employee. Second location was busier, its on the street level near the entrance + +Zumiez + +* Nice looking store +* Mostly youths +* Not busy, but not empty + +Journeys + +* Young crowd +* \~15 customers, not too busy. Slow cash. + +Maje + +* Dead + +EBX + +* Pretty busy +* Collectables a significant part of store, at the back. Couple customers back there. + +RW and CO + +* Slow + +Old Navy + +* Huge lineup (20 people). 5 people at the cache +* Moderately busy + +Second Cup + +* 2 employees, 12 customers. Slow line. Looks like one dude is making all the drinks. One potential customer walked away. +* second location: 8 customers, 3 employees + +Lenscrafters + +* Pretty equal customer to employee ratio + +Champs Sports + +* Active. + +Apple + +* BUSY AS FUCK +* An hour later, MORE BUSY + +Lindt + +* 4 employees, 9 customers +* Active + +Davids Tea + +* Dead. +* 5 employees + +Tumi + +* 2 customers, 4 employees +* Seemed dead + +Free People + +* Slow + +L'occitane + +* Beautiful store +* Busy-ish. An hour later, slow + +Pandora + +* Active. Much more so than People's. An hour later, still active. + +The Face Shop + +* Small, moderately busy. +* 4 employees +* An hour later, still busy + +Disney Store + +* Busy + +Ann Taylor + +* Pretty slow + +Coach + +* Active + +Massimo Dutti + +* Dead + +Bath and Body Works + +* Same colour scheme L'occitane is going for, but doesn't look nearly as good +* Busy. Lots of customers around. +* Much cheaper than L'occitane. + +Le Chateau + +* Mens: Dead +* Normal: Dead + +Aritzia + +* Busy, good looking store + +Wilfred + +* Looks like aritzia, different tone +* Older crowd +* Slow + +Johnston and Murphy + +* Pretty dead +* 1 customer, 4 employees + +Guess Accessories + +* 4 employees, 4 customers + +Fossil + +* 6 customers, 10 employees +* Store looks good + +Pink + +* Active +* Security guard. Odd. + +Victoria's Secret + +* Active, much less busy than La Sensa + +Banana Republic + +* Dead +* Women's store: twice as active + +Little Burgundy + +* Busy + +Abercrombie & Fitch + +* Busy + +Sephora + +* Busy as fuck + +Guess + +* Active + +Oakley + +* Busy +* Security guard + +Baby Gap + +* Active + +Lululemon + +* Busy + +Marciano + +* Dead + +Williams-Sonoma + +* Slow + +Hyba Activewear + Thyme Maternity + +* Active, but not very + +Stuart Weitzman + +* Active, good looking store + +Loft + +* Dead + +Babaton + +* Active + +Club Monaco + +* Active + +Kate Spade + +* Busy + +Zara + +* Two locations: both busy + +Roots + +* Busy + +Nordstom + +* Busy + +Sportchek + +* Busy + +McDonalds + +* Busy. \~3:20 PM. + +Tims + +* Busy \~3:20 PM. + +A & W + +* Dead; other lunch places were not dead. \~3:20 PM, so maybe 12 PM is a different story. + +New York Fries + +* Active, \~3:20 PM. + +TNA + +* Active + +Indigo + +* Busy! + +Swatch + +* Tiny kiosk, with product laid out clearly and nicely +* Fairly active! People stop and talk to the sales people, look at stuff + +&#x200B; +Thought this might be a fun opportunity to express some well-deserved praise for your all-star performer, and vent by casting some serious shade on a holding you wish you'd never pulled the trigger on. + + +I'll start: + +Praise: TD - holding shares across two registered and one unregistered account, all currently up between 16-27%, and paying me sweet quarterly divvys. TD is my bae. + +Curse: DOC - Bought back at the peak of the Fall 2020 hype train, down 44%, don't believe in the future of the company (or industry for that matter) and feeling like I was straight up deceived by Dr. Scamza. + +EDIT: Thanks for your contributions so far! Finding it hilarious that so many of our cursed holdings are familiar tickers we see pumped and shilled in our daily discussion threads. Hopefully helps some of you feel like you aren't holding those bags alone. +Long story short, I own several websites, one of which I intend to sell for roughly $400K. + +At this point it's just been my side hustle, but with the sale of the site I'm obviously looking at a large capital gains tax. + +Would my tax bill for the sale of this website be less if I were to incorporate before selling? + +I'm not well versed at all in matters of business, so any help, or resources would be greatly appreciated! +I just finished reading "Beating the Street", and I was inspired to visit the local mall (The Eaton's Centre) to do some research. Here are my notes. If you have your own observations or opinions about these public companies, please share! + +All of these observations are from between 1:30 PM and 3:30 PM on a Saturday, specifically 2018-09-01. + +I have not done any analysis here, just looking how busy places are / whatever else catches my eye. + +Not all of these are publicly traded on the TSX; I focused my search on anything publicly traded in general. Some are subsidiaries of publicly traded companies. + +&#x200B; + +Shoppers Drug Mart + +* \~25 customers +* Regular flow in/out +* Some people just there for the post office, which is at the very back +* Makeup section not busy in general, but what looks like the cheaper section is fairly busy +* \~4 employees for makeup, \~5 employees for the ordinary store + +Aerie + +* Busy. + +MAC + +* Dead. Maybe one customer +* 4 employees +* Their large location is currently closed and under renovations, the active one is tiny. + +Abercrombie Kids + +* Pretty dead. + +GNC + +* 4 Employees, typically \~1 customer +* Good sales rapport with customers. At least one sales guy seems to "lift", and I think he's a draw for advice/etc. + +Nike + +* Pretty busy + +Microsoft + +* Busy, but they have a lot of employees +* \~ 11 employees to 8 customers + +The Source + +* First location + * 8 employees, 3 customers. Would hate to walk into here with so many idle sales people, don't like to be bothered +* Second location + * \~6 employees, 6 customers, some grouped + +T Booth + +* \~4 customers, 3 employees + +H & M + +* Kids + * moderately busy +* Ordinary + * busy + +American Eagle + +* Busy! +* Mostly teens; they are concentrated in the section that has the sales +* Some 30-40s people too +* Good flow in/out + +Footaction + +* Kicks Lounge + * 2 employees, 4 customers +* Adidas Collective + * 4 customers, 2 employees +* Main store section + * 12 customers / 6 employees +* Fairly active; between 1:40 and 3:30 it stayed busy +* One customers appears to have bought in bulk; at least a dozen pairs! Doesn't look like the target demographic. Shoe price speculator? + +Starbucks + +* 22 customers, 8 employees +* Busy. However, the employees are handling the work load and don't look stressed +* Later in the day it was busy as fuck, but the employees were still handling it just fine + +Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory + +* 3 customers, 4 employees. not busy. +* Later in the day, no customers + +Freshii + +* 3 customers / 2 employees +* Customer flow seems steady, stays around 3 customers (1:45 PM) +* Employees look overwhelmed +* 3:30 PM - 1 customer, 3 employees + +La Senza + +* Attracting people at the front with a "wheel of fortune". I saw someone win, and it bought in onlookers +* The employee working the wheel is hustling, and she was still hustling hard an hour and a half later +* Busy store + +Wireless Wave + +* Active, ish + +Lids + +* 7 customers, 5 employees +* Fairly busy. People look like they are having a good time. +* Hard to tell the difference between a customer and an employee, pretty laid back. + +Yogen Fruz + +* 8 customers, 5 employees +* Pretty busy +* Good flow +* Employees seem to be handling it + +Foot Locker + +* 35 customers, 7 employees +* BUSY. +* Good flow + +Sketchers + +* Moderately busy + +Reitmans + +* Older crowd +* Slow + +Steve Madden + +* Customers checking their phones, looks like they are comparing prices +* Moderately busy. Stayed moderately busy an hour later. +* Second location, pretty dead + +People's Jewlers + +* Dead. An hour later, still dead. + +Gap + +* Busy + +Hollister + +* Busy + +Sunglass Hut + +* Not many customers per employee. Second location was busier, its on the street level near the entrance + +Zumiez + +* Nice looking store +* Mostly youths +* Not busy, but not empty + +Journeys + +* Young crowd +* \~15 customers, not too busy. Slow cash. + +Maje + +* Dead + +EBX + +* Pretty busy +* Collectables a significant part of store, at the back. Couple customers back there. + +RW and CO + +* Slow + +Old Navy + +* Huge lineup (20 people). 5 people at the cache +* Moderately busy + +Second Cup + +* 2 employees, 12 customers. Slow line. Looks like one dude is making all the drinks. One potential customer walked away. +* second location: 8 customers, 3 employees + +Lenscrafters + +* Pretty equal customer to employee ratio + +Champs Sports + +* Active. + +Apple + +* BUSY AS FUCK +* An hour later, MORE BUSY + +Lindt + +* 4 employees, 9 customers +* Active + +Davids Tea + +* Dead. +* 5 employees + +Tumi + +* 2 customers, 4 employees +* Seemed dead + +Free People + +* Slow + +L'occitane + +* Beautiful store +* Busy-ish. An hour later, slow + +Pandora + +* Active. Much more so than People's. An hour later, still active. + +The Face Shop + +* Small, moderately busy. +* 4 employees +* An hour later, still busy + +Disney Store + +* Busy + +Ann Taylor + +* Pretty slow + +Coach + +* Active + +Massimo Dutti + +* Dead + +Bath and Body Works + +* Same colour scheme L'occitane is going for, but doesn't look nearly as good +* Busy. Lots of customers around. +* Much cheaper than L'occitane. + +Le Chateau + +* Mens: Dead +* Normal: Dead + +Aritzia + +* Busy, good looking store + +Wilfred + +* Looks like aritzia, different tone +* Older crowd +* Slow + +Johnston and Murphy + +* Pretty dead +* 1 customer, 4 employees + +Guess Accessories + +* 4 employees, 4 customers + +Fossil + +* 6 customers, 10 employees +* Store looks good + +Pink + +* Active +* Security guard. Odd. + +Victoria's Secret + +* Active, much less busy than La Sensa + +Banana Republic + +* Dead +* Women's store: twice as active + +Little Burgundy + +* Busy + +Abercrombie & Fitch + +* Busy + +Sephora + +* Busy as fuck + +Guess + +* Active + +Oakley + +* Busy +* Security guard + +Baby Gap + +* Active + +Lululemon + +* Busy + +Marciano + +* Dead + +Williams-Sonoma + +* Slow + +Hyba Activewear + Thyme Maternity + +* Active, but not very + +Stuart Weitzman + +* Active, good looking store + +Loft + +* Dead + +Babaton + +* Active + +Club Monaco + +* Active + +Kate Spade + +* Busy + +Zara + +* Two locations: both busy + +Roots + +* Busy + +Nordstom + +* Busy + +Sportchek + +* Busy + +McDonalds + +* Busy. \~3:20 PM. + +Tims + +* Busy \~3:20 PM. + +A & W + +* Dead; other lunch places were not dead. \~3:20 PM, so maybe 12 PM is a different story. + +New York Fries + +* Active, \~3:20 PM. + +TNA + +* Active + +Indigo + +* Busy! + +Swatch + +* Tiny kiosk, with product laid out clearly and nicely +* Fairly active! People stop and talk to the sales people, look at stuff + +&#x200B; +I just turned 19 so I can finally start investing by myself. My parents had never taught me anything about investing in the stock market so I'm kind of on my own. I have been reading a lot online regarding where to start as a beginner and only have a few thousand dollars to play with. + +I am currently thinking about using Wealthsimple and investing in safe ETFs such as VOO or VTI. I plan on leaving the money in the ETFs for a long time. + +Am I going on the right track? Is there anything I should be aware of before putting most of my savings into the ETFs? Any resources to help me with making the best resources? Any suggestions or advice would be helpful! +Hey guys, + +As you may have noticed there's been a recent sell off for the stock VERY. Its been seeing massive increases based on news. Well....that is true but you may ask why? If you haven't seen the recent press release news by the company, I will attach the link here: + +[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/very-good-food-company-issues-201600009.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/very-good-food-company-issues-201600009.html) + +What this means is there's been a lot of youtubers with a following that claimed to have been promoted by the stock or basically pumping it. Here is an example of someone buying and then dumping with a following on youtube: + +&#x200B; + +1. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBwbEE0MBxY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBwbEE0MBxY) +2. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV1a6IsL2rU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV1a6IsL2rU) + +&#x200B; + +My two cents: A lot of these youtubers communicate among each other and I believe its a simple pump and dump. The big catalyst is whether the marketing company hired by VERY did pay a youtuber to discuss about the stock which I think is unlikely since yes the stock is a penny stock but their product and growth financially are impressive. If that youtuber lie then you will see a possible lawsuit and SEC going after some of these guys which I hope so cause thats basically the same as inside trading + +&#x200B; + +Please take this with a grain of salt as I'm not a professional in assessing stocks nor is my opinion stronger than others + +&#x200B; + +Thanks +Looking for a list / site of TSX-listed ETFs. I guess basically something similar to ETFDB.com but Canadian. + +Does such a thing exist? Iā€™ve tried googling but havenā€™t come up with anything. Iā€™m also an idiot though so might be missing something obvious. + +Any help is appreciated! +We wanted to share with the r/bitcoin community that Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is now conducting a Bitcoin test with BitPay (https://bitpay.com/), a leading Bitcoin service provider, in select Zynga.com web games. + +In response to Bitcoinā€™s rise in popularity around the world, Zynga, with help from BitPay, is testing expanded payment options for players to make in-game purchases using Bitcoin. The Bitcoin test is only available to Zynga.com players playing FarmVille 2, CastleVille, ChefVille, CoasterVille, Hidden Chronicles, Hidden Shadows and CityVille. The games can be accessed at http://zynga.com. + +Zynga is always working to improve our customer experience by incorporating player feedback into our games. We look forward to hearing from our players about the Bitcoin test so we can continue in our efforts to provide the best possible gaming experience. + +Check out the test and let us know your thoughts. + +Thank you! + +Zynga +**Terrible Token Tuesday comes back this week with a new list of projects short on good ideas and sound execution as featured on** [**ConcourseQ**](https://concourseq.io/)**.** + +**The Concourse Open Community is #buidling several interesting projects in the space. Check out our** [**Discord**](https://discord.gg/22E3YvP) **for more on our communityā€™s ethos.** + +**And on to TTT:** + +**LiteCoinOne -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/LiteCoinOne**](https://concourseq.io/Q/LiteCoinOne) LiteCoinOne are creating an ERC-20 to get funding. After that they will need 6 months to launch their LiteCoin spin-off; meanwhile they could have forked LiteCoin in 5 mins and launched! Knowing that this part of the pitch doesn't hold, they added some exchange mambojambo. All that is bad, but the really funny part is that the projectā€™s team photos are so badly photoshopped that they seem fake. All in all, those guys must be the least ambitious snake oil salesmen in the space, as they are just asking for $32K. + +**TrustLogics -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/TrustLogics**](https://concourseq.io/Q/TrustLogics) Trust Logics is creating a decentralised LinkedIn and to make it more interesting, they threw in a pinch of their magical - yet still unknown- AI ā€œDUBOTā€. It is not clear what edge blockchain or AI provides on its competitors in the already crowded Human Resources field knowing that the team does not seem to have any blockchain or AI talent to actually help make a difference. + +**Denarii Cash -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/Denarii\_Cash**](https://concourseq.io/Q/Denarii_Cash) It is not really clear why a simple crypto wallet would need to have a token sale when there are numerous other free solutions which offer battle-tested products with a clear head start and a lot more adoption-- not to mention that this leaves Denariiā€™s investors with a meaningless token that does not seem to have any use-case on the platform. + +**LendChain -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/LendChain**](https://concourseq.io/Q/LendChain) LendChainā€™s ambiguous team with social profiles that seem more fake than not, is clearly overpromising, and wants to build not just a lending platform, but all sorts of financial derivatives and to top it all off a proprietary blockchain. All these are clearly way out of the teamā€™s league especially since the folks at LendChain couldnā€™t even manage to draft a good quality whitepaper. + +**CyphrCoin -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/CyphrCoin**](https://concourseq.io/Q/CyphrCoin) CyphrCoin team seem to have been living under a rock for the last 10 years, and have probably missed the news of Bitcoin launch. Thatā€™s why they earn the title of featured DD of the week. Check them out on the link! + +**Here are some of last weekā€™s TTT ā€œdiligentā€ features with ICOā€™s coming soon :** + +**Moneta Hawk -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/MonetaHawk**](https://concourseq.io/Q/MonetaHawk) Moneta Hawk and the Tripago ICO which also received a warning on ConcourseQ seem to both be operated by the same director out of a Romanian supermarket. Tripago is also a distinguished TTT alumni, but this time the shady team seems to be taking it one step further by claiming to have a partnership with us (ConcourseQ). + +**Bitlumens -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/Bitlumens**](https://concourseq.io/Q/Bitlumens) Bitlumens are really into a noble cause, which is providing power to people that are off-grid, but despite all those seemingly good intentions, this project does look to be a great deal for the ICO investors, who will be giving their money to create an unsustainable model, and will likely see no returns from their investment. + +**Undal Technologies -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/Undal\_Technologies**](https://concourseq.io/Q/Undal_Technologies) The idea of crypto ATM has been used so much in the space that [Undal Technologies](https://concourseq.io/Q/Undal%20Technologies) decided to rebrand it into a ā€œDecentralised Exchange Kioskā€. Well if that is not enough, the company intends to fit all sorts of futuristic and yet to be discovered technologies inside that kiosk, all taken from the most credible scientific source: Marvelā€™s Black Panther! + +**Gear Token -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/GEAR\_Token**](https://concourseq.io/Q/GEAR_Token) Gear Tokenā€™s business plan seems underdeveloped and lacks a lot of technical details for a company that wants to produce green energy to mine cryptocurrencies. You would expect to at least have a target location, and maybe which green energy they will be using, but the team leaves both of those questions unanswered, and on top of that guarantees ROI to investors without knowing what their costs would be! + +**Dylyver -** [**https://concourseq.io/Q/Dylyver**](https://concourseq.io/Q/Dylyver) Lots of discrepancies between the teamā€™s bios and the project roadmap, while the CEO has a trail of failed projects behind him. Although the project is a ride-sharing platform, for some unknown reasons it throws in to the mix a crypto debit card, and without any factual data promises 1,000% ROI to investors. + +**The ConcourseQ team would like to thank everybody that helped on these DDs and all the others!** + +**If you want to join our community, meet us on our Discord:** + +[**https://discord.gg/22E3YvP**](https://discord.gg/22E3YvP) +I don't know where to turn you guys. Throwaway account obviously, but you would probably recognize my name around here. + +I just got hammered on one last trade, and I'm down to just $10k in ETH. I know that sounds like a lot, but you should consider where I've been. + +First of all, I was an original crowdfunder in ETH. I had 2,000 of them. On top of that, I also had 24 btc. Even at these low prices, I would have had $250k or so. + +But I started trading. Nothing crazy like margin trades, but I got greedy. I kept trading and my stack was getting lower and lower. But a year ago I had $250k, which was serious money. I finally cashed out and paid taxes on the whole thing. + +But the thing is, I didn't want to pull money out of our crypto account, so we (my wife and I) paid from our savings. Because of where I live, both state and federal capital gains tax applied. We ended up paying almost $30k. Because the market was "down" at that time, I told her I would pay her back by the end of the year. + +Now I have 1/3rd of that left. I can't even pay back what we paid in taxes. I'm in complete mental anguish and I don't know what to do. Obviously I have to tell her, but I feel like I've let her, myself, and my whole family down. I'm in disbelief thinking I only have 10k left out of what should have been millions. + +I don't know what to do guys. How will this ever get better? I can't even pay back our savings account for all of the money. I can't imagine the disappointment my wife will feel. I was supposed to manage all of this and take care of it. I have a well-paying job, but I still feel like a complete failure. I never thought I would end up here, but look at me now. + +Fuck. +Hey guys, I know serious discussions arent held by autists, but I don't fucking understand this industry. + +I've had the sneaking suspicion for a little while now that the general cacophony of wallstreet analysts are there to just pump up the stock so that hedge funds / mutual funds can dump their stock while its grossly overpriced. Even when a stock's valuation is insane, and there are clear signs the bubble is breaking, they just assign higher and higher targets for the stock's valuation. Things only a fucking idiot could possibly believe. + +What the fuck is going on? Am I going all tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist? It seems like these guys don't do their job, just robotically ignore what is going on until it's completely fucking obvious that the bubble is gone. + +Can someone with more experience than my dumb scrub ass please let me know if I have a good perspective of what the fuck is going on? Because if I'm completely wrong then I'm going to just put it all on spy 400c 9/27 + + +edit: maybe i'll just get drunk. This is honestly really depressing to have my most cynical realizations be confirmed by so many different autists. No wonder most people never get into this game, they get burned and say fuck it and dump it all into mutual funds. +Some news articles about popular consumer bank Wells Fargo and it's implementation with websites like Mint.com. They are developing an API that ends the need to provide secure login & passwords to third parties. Hopefully Mint will get on board with this new method. + +http://www.americanbanker.com/news/bank-technology/wells-fargos-bid-to-vanquish-screen-scraping-1081367-1.html?pg=1 + +http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2016/06/07/wells-fargo-teaming-up-with-accounting-software.html +~~(I posted, and it dropped to negatives, but no longer. Striking this out --> Getting downvoted hard)~~ + +There has been much discussion about what the possible margin call mark is, but I just realized there was another obvious indicator: **the shortable limit.** + +Honestly after looking at today's price action, I didn't want to post it, cause it doesn't support my thesis. So instead of the DD flair, I'm using Discussion instead. Hopefully someone wrinklier can figure out something new! If this gets tagged as misinformation, I will remove it in about 8hrs when I wake up again. So... here goes: + +This is the GME chart as we know it. It suddenly occurred to me that there has been many "low" points, but these points tend to trend up. Look at the white line. + +[GME chart over last 6 months](https://preview.redd.it/3v8ey4cigby61.png?width=1355&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce7202fcba4dd419ac3402027dfbb601525f590e) + +On Feb 19, DFV doubled down. A few days later on Feb 24, 25, and 26, the price spiked, but ended on a lower limit of 86 on Feb 26. **This is my Day 0.** Afterwards, there were many more "lower limits" that happened with reducing interval periods. Notably, Mar 25, Apr 13, Apr 23, May 4, May 6, and May 7. + +[Same chart, zoomed in. Observe the points where the lower limit touches the white line.](https://preview.redd.it/krr7oreghby61.png?width=1360&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4e07b3e122d065a13c88d9799929067bab66a9c) + +Notice the linearity? Impossible! Linearity in stocks?? Let me take the values out for better visualization. + +[Values taken from TDA.](https://preview.redd.it/pz0zdsq4iby61.png?width=481&format=png&auto=webp&s=c615057ae1b4323304c96ea326fd44116979182a) + +Now that I have the values, let me plot them and draw a best fit line. + +[Plot of Price vs Days after 26\/2, for specific intra-day Low\/High marks.](https://preview.redd.it/yze0nkeoiby61.png?width=464&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaed7bcfafb542c06a7626f8ca670fdafdc6b80d) + +Linear best fit with interval increment of roughly $1.47 shortable limit increase per day. This means every day that passes, their shorting power is reduced by $1.47. Also, in the table above, the days interval to re-touch the white trend line has decreased to 1 since last Friday. So by right today we should see something, but I guess all we see is HFs naked shorting more. Maybe this is their hail mary? + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Note: if you've reached this point, let me remind you that this is not a hype post, but keep your tits jacked. + +\*\*This is not financial advice. +Noticed my mother's bank statement has had numerous transactions taken out under the names FB adds and the like, adding up to Ā£365. + +Has anyone ever dealt with this? Obviously someone has been using her details to purchase items, can we get this back through the bank? + +Any advice would be a great help. + +EDIT: Reported for fraud and all charged back. Thanks all! +Hi all, + +I get paid Ā£26,800 per annum however I work in travel so currently on furlough. + +Last Sunday I started a job as a Dominos delivery driver and have worked many hours since last Sunday doing this. However I've been trying to weigh up the pros and cons of whether it's worth it which I've detailed below. I hope someone could help me in making an informed decision whether I should carry this on: + +&#x200B; + +**Cons** + +* The pay is honestly shocking. It is minimum wage (Ā£8.72) but I only get Ā£1 on top of this for fuel for each delivery. I'd say the average delivery is about 3 miles away (so 6 miles as I have to drive back to the store). I estimate my car does 13p per mile when everything is factored in (petrol, wear and tear, depreciation etc etc i.e not just fuel costs). There's also a lot of traffic problems where I deliver at the moment as they've blocked off the high street to allow the road to become pedestrianised (meant to help with Covid if people can space out when walking) and lots of roadworks happening too also resulting in increased traffic congestion. +* I drive a fairly new car so I'm adding to its depreciation. It's a 67 plate Seat Ibiza (probably worth about Ā£7.5k I'm guessing). It has done about 15,000 miles. I'd say over a 6 hour shift I do about 65 miles which is making the car lose value. Having said that, it's pretty fuel efficient at about 55mpg doing Dominos deliveries. +* My insurance excess is Ā£1k. I chose this option because there was lower annual upfront costs and since I've never had an accident I felt I'd take the risk with the Ā£1k excess (insurance taken out before I got this delivery job). However I feel there's an increased chance of having an accident doing delivery driving since the Dominos car park is tiny yet there's so many cars racing in and out (including Just Eat drivers from other restaurants too). I'm being really careful and vigilant but I can't control what others do. I've also found when delivering pizza I'm often having to park in a super cluttered housing estate where I'm often trying to do an 8 point manoeuvre in the road to swivel out of small nail-biting spaces. If ever I did have an accident, all the money I've made will go towards the car repair plus more money on top so I would have actually made a loss! +* Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think I'll make much when tax is factored in since I'll be getting taxed on this Dominos job plus my 80% furlough salary job. +* If I wasn't working for Dominos, I'd find ways to make pocket money online (surveys etc). I'd probably make Ā£10-Ā£15 a day doing this. +* Non financial but my work-life balance. Won't go into detail here as it's not r/ukpersonalfinance related. + +**Pros** + +* It might not be much money I'm earning but it is still regular consistent, guarenteed money. This is obviously the big main pro. +* I go to the gym before or after my Dominos shift as the gym is in the same town the Dominos store is in. So if I didn't work for Dominos I'd have a 5 mile drive each way to the gym but now my drive to the gym is combined with my work shift so a small money saver. +* I do very occasionally make tips but this is very rare. I've been given two tips so far... a Ā£5 tip and a Ā£4 tip. This is after doing about 60 deliveries in total in my time working for Dominos so bit of a stretch putting it as a pro! + +Do you think what I'm doing is worth it? I'm not sure if the cons outweigh the pros but at the end of the day I'm sort of thinking doing this work is better than not doing it! I think they told me I get paid weekly so I believe I'll be getting my first paycheck any minute now so once that arrives it'll be easier to gauge whether it's worth staying on. +https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/05/returns-on-stocks-in-2018-were-down-across-the-board + +The writer covers the differing psychological reactions to falling stock prices between short-term and long-term investors. I liked the analogy to "landlords" and "tenants" in terms of housing prices. + +For those at the beginning of their FI journey, cheering rising stock prices is like "a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a dayā€™s supply". Good to keep in mind. +https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/05/returns-on-stocks-in-2018-were-down-across-the-board + +The writer covers the differing psychological reactions to falling stock prices between short-term and long-term investors. I liked the analogy to "landlords" and "tenants" in terms of housing prices. + +For those at the beginning of their FI journey, cheering rising stock prices is like "a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a dayā€™s supply". Good to keep in mind. +I read a WSJ article about how Johnson & Johnson was splitting up into two companies within the next 18-24 months. I'm fairly new to the stock market (23) and I have about 10% of my portfolio in JNJ. Not sure someone could "dumb down" what this split means for the stock and the dividend, or if nothing will change market wise? +DAO hack, Poloniex going back on their word to just allow one time ETC withdrawal and deprecate the losing chain, support from Greg Maxwell and Barry Sillbert all of a sudden, infestation of subreddit by ETCers, ~75% of money pouring into ETC from Bitcoiners primarily, Bitfinex hack leading to Bitcoin dump knowing that money would flow to ETC now instead of ETH like it traditionally has prior to fork. There are too many strings that some are not attached. I can't be the only one seeing this. + +EDIT: Oh, and let's not forget Poloniex not allowing margin trading to allow short selling and creation of downward pressure on ETC. +Source: https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20201259.pdf + +Initial Jobless Claims: + +Survey: 1,290,000 + +Actual: 1,508,000 + +Prior Week: 1,542,000 + +Prior Week Revised: 1,566,000 + +Continuing Jobless Claims: + +Survey: 19,850,000 + +Actual: 20,544,000 + +Prior Week: 20,929,000 + +Prior Week Revised: 20,606,000 + +Total Jobless claims in the last 13 weeks: 43,574,000 + +EDIT: For comparison sake, the worst weekly jobless claims during the Global Financial Crisis was 665,000, for the week ending on March 27, 2009. This is the 13th consecutive week of new weekly jobless claims being over 1 million. +I've been wondering this with the recent announcement of TSLA 1-to-5 stock split. + +Here's what I understand: + +* Anyone holding TSLA stock end of day 21st is eligible for 1-to-5 split. +* Stock splits on 31st of August +* Clearly this is driving up the stock value as we head into Friday the 21st + +My question is, what happens the entire next week? + +If no new stockholders next week would be eligible for the stock split, does this mean that the stock value will begin dropping come Monday 24-Aug, since people won't be dying to get in before the split anymore? + +Also, how will Tesla/NYSE monitor who had the stock when? What's to stop me from selling my stock on Monday 24th and how will Tesla/NYSE know not to split that stock on the 31st for the owner that owns it all next week? + +**TL;DR: Can someone explain the mechanics of the "stocks will only be split for people owning stock by XYZ date" when the XYZ date and the date of the actual stock-split are a week apart?** +My first job out of college was at a huge corporation similar to Intel. I worked there for 2 years before I left, and most of the people I worked with had 30 or 35 years with the company, hoping to ride it out for a few more years until retirement. The guy who sat next to me in the office was in his late 50s/early 60s and made ~$120k a year with 35 years of service. But his house still wasn't paid off, he bought new cars every few years, and he would sometimes admit to me that he was worried about his retirement. I think having an entry level job at a large company and looking around, seeing people in their 50s and 60s worried about their future, is a large part of what inspired me to save as much as possible, as early as possible. + +----- + +**Here's the article:** + +You know, I literally thought I was untouchable. I had been with Intel for 28 years. I'm not worried about losing my job, maybe a redeployment, and a new job is like a vacation right? I got to work early Tuesday morning. I had some notes and items to get cleaned up prior to an important meeting. I noticed a 10:00am meeting on my calendar with my manager. Didn't think much about it. I was happy and smiling, when I approached the conference room door I noticed the HR representative sitting with my manager. Now it doesn't take a lot of sense to know that this probably isn't about that big raise they are going to give me for being such a great employee. + +The HR person got right to business and told me as of this moment I have been terminated. I said this must be some kind of a mistake or a bad joke. As the HR representative stared at me with cold dead shark eyes I realized she was not joking. My actual response was " I have things to do cant we talk about this later" she said No, I want your badge (ID) immediately. You must turn in your Laptop and any Intel property you have. It was a surreal out of body experience. I was literally on the ceiling looking down at this entire situation and I didn't like it. Now this is the pleasant most humiliating part. After helping actually build this site, I was escorted back to my office and handed a shopping bag. I dumped the contents of my backpack on the desk, picked up the pictures of my kids and grandkids and left everything else ( why would I want anything from a company that betrayed me after 28 years). I was marched down to a conference room and handed a thumb drive and told to take all the personal items off my laptop and to wipe my phone. But just prior to doing that, the technician assisting grabs the laptop out of my hand and states he has to disable the wireless so I don't send off some information or a an email warning others (Ha Ha) I have been with the company 28 years, I didn't become a criminal (like I was being treated) within the last 15 minutes. I was walked to the door and I never looked back. I kept hearing I'm sorry behind me, trust me it didn't help. + +As I walked to my car my head was swimming with emotions. I was mad, I was enraged, I was literally shaking and when I got in my car I realized like I looked like I had been punched in the face. I was not in a good place and I really shouldn't have gotten behind the wheel in that condition. So I sat for a moment, but the longer I stared at the building the more upset I had become. Losing your job after 28 years is like losing your family. No I cant call them up, no I cant go to lunch and just chat, I am alone now. + +This first thing I did when I got home was pick up the laptop and start looking for jobs. I whipped up a 20 minute resume thinking that I am so talented that I will have a job by tomorrow. My head was spinning. I was applying for every job I thought I would have a chance at. McDonalds, Dog walker, bus boy, landscaping (mowing lans), you get the picture. Keys pounding, resume's flying out of my mail. + +Then my daughter called me. She is a very level headed woman that has held some pretty lofty positions in the entertainment industry in Hollywood. She was right on the money when she said " How many resumes did you send out today" I responded gee, I don't know 10 or 12 I can even remember the names of the companies. She said I want you to put down the laptop and listen to me. + +Here is what she said. A tragic thing happened to you today. Your mind is reeling and you probably have a big case of anxiety and frustration. You picture yourself living n a box under the overpass. Your family thinks you are worthless, you think you are worthless, everyone in the world is against you. Just drive off into the desert and die somewhere, the world will be better off. All I could do was listen in amazement as she perfectly explained my state of mind. She said I know because I have been then 3 times now. Then came the words of wisdom. + +She said: you are a talented individual. It is unfortunate what happened but it did and anything you say or do isn't going to change it. You cant cry over spilled milk, its gone! You need to take a couple of days or even a couple of weeks and decompress. You are not an Intel employee anymore. You do not have deadlines and commitments to meet. you don't have to sweat over all the work that was hanging over you head like an ax on a thread waiting to lop your head off. STOP, STOP and STOP. Take a breath. She asked " What do you want to do" Do you want to go back to work so bad that you are willing to accept another job that you would be miserable in or do you want to take your time, think about your skills and how they could apply to the job that you really want. This is your chance to reinvent yourself. Everyone that loses their job goes through this exact feeling of "disconnected". Take this time to reflect, don't think so hard about getting a job. Think hard about what I want to do. I don't want some job at McDonalds or Walmart. I want to work for the Forest service, or I want to have a job that allows me to be outside, I love highly technical things, I love golf, I love outdoor sports, I love target shooting, I love building motorcycles, I love wiring homes, I love technical problems that I can dig into and fix. The point is I have many skills. Those skills did not go away when I left my job of 28 years, but it sure felt that way. + +No, No, No, You are what you have always been. A very talented person with skills that can be used in several areas that would accommodate exactly the job you want. Don't settle for a job that will just be a job. Go for a job that will bring you some happiness. I love sports, outdoors, meeting new people, fixing things, helping people, above all I love life regardless of what curve balls it throws at you. + +Big Corporations don't care that you have a mortgage 3 kids and a car payment. Stop being a victim and start being aggressive in getting what you want for a change. Like a job you love. + +Take a deep breath, relax, you are important, you are needed, you do have a place on earth and people rely on you to be strong. Above all your family and friends Love you and honestly, any job or money cant buy that. + +-kim + +Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lost-your-job-recent-layoff-kim-williams +Hey all! I know we all agree no one knows clearly when the bottom is so my question is + +What would you buy at market theoretic bottom? Say you have $500k? +Edit: what price(s) are you looking for +Canadian or US - both okay. + +Thanks! +Hello! + +I was comparing some ETF portfolios I found online earlier today. I calculated the portfolio differences and what their respective MER fees would be. This may go against what many others here are doing on /r/CanadianInvestor, but if there are any ETF investors here I do hope this helps. + +Please don't downvote me too hard, I genuinely would like a discussion on the advantages, disadvantages, and thoughts on each of these portfolios. This post is strictly about ETF trading and not individual stocks, which I admit do have their own advantages. + +\------------ + +**PORTFOLIO #1:** + +**100% of XGRO** *- iShares Core Growth ETF Portfolio* + +\-0.20% Average MER for portfolio. + +\-Don't have to think. Just dump money into it. + +\-80% equity / 20% bonds. + +\-Least amount of trades required for buying/selling (good if you're charged per trade). + +&#x200B; + +**PORTFOLIO #2** + +**20% of XBB** *- iShares Core Canadian Universe Bond Index ETF* + +**80% of XEQT** *- iShares Core Equity ETF Portfolio* + +\-0.164% Average MER for portfolio. + +\-You need to regularly rebalance your portfolio by making sure you keep your 80/20 equity/bonds ratio. + +\-80% equity / 20% bonds + +\-This is literally the exact same portfolio as 100% XGRO. + +\-At most only requires two trades to buy or sell with this portfolio. + +&#x200B; + +**PORTFOLIO #3** + +**20% ZAG** *- BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF* + +**27% VCN** *- Vanguard FTSE Canada All Cap Index ETF* + +**27% XUU** *- iShares Core S&P U.S. Total Market Index ETF* + +**19% XEF** *- iShares Core MSCI EAFE IMI Index ETF* + +**7% XEC** *- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF* + +\-0.1118ā€¬% Average MER for portfolio. + +\-You need to regularly rebalance your portfolio by making sure you keep your 80/20 equity/bonds ratio. + +\-80% equity / 20% bonds + +\-This is a diversified portfolio that uses BMO, Blackrock, and Vanguard. It's not reliant on a single investment management company. + +\-More complicated. At most requires 5 trades to buy or sell with this portfolio. + +\-Recommend buying more of individual ETFs that have gone down in order to maintain ratio. + +\-Great for QuestTrade / other brokers who don't charge for buying. + +\-Can change ratios of the equity funds to whatever equity package you feel fits your needs. For example, you could lower XEF and XEC % and dump it into XUU if you wanted more US market exposure--just as long as the all of the equity funds add up to 80%. +Any one else experiencing the same issue? iTrade is down the 2nd day what a let down. Literally losing me 10s of thousands. + +&#x200B; + +I need a new broker any recs? +As the title reads, what are your suggestions for an ETF that holds shares in Canadian banks and financial institutions? Why would help. Iā€™m cleaning up my holdings and will obviously look into the suggestions a bit myself. Thank you in advance. +#[Updated UK Version now released here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v9ENzdoSIVlfAA2SFVFz6KKVAAu5Knv8klde7bN2Qqo/edit?usp=sharing) + +Hey everyone, + +I'm a big believer in community resources and a massive Google Sheets fan, so after a year of work and using it on my own finances I'm releasing my automated Google Sheet to track your entire Networth and Financial situation live and month to month. + +I religiously devour Personal Finance content from all manner of places, and I tried to build all the lessons and rules I've learned into the sheet. I've been using it for around a year now and posted it in a few smaller finance subs where it's been well received by a number of people. + +**Some of the features of the Sheet:** + +- Captures all parts of your financial position (Cash, Stocks, ETFā€™s, Dividends, Super etc.) + +- Live ETF/Dividend/Crypto prices for live insight into your portfolio + +- The cool stuff: Automatically optimizes when & what ETFā€™s to buy + +- Automatically copies your entire financial position when you save your monthly progress. This is great for watching your Networth grow giving you a sense of progression month-to-month. + +- Tracks and gives you feedback on your Savings habits and monthly spend. + +- Cash Savings Targets, I've also added in a House Deposit tracker. + +- Automatic budget that feeds into your ETF purchases & automates your monthly bank transfers. + +- Keeps track of all returns from Stocks/Dividends helping you see whatā€™s working + +- Investment return breakdowns per-parcel and on a holistic level. + +- And a whole bunch of other features, give the sheet a look to see. + +Essentially this sheet only requires you to update a few values each month and will automatically keep track of the rest through a variety of formulas and scripts that run behind the scenes. Feel free to edit them yourself in Tools -> Script Editor. Iā€™ve used this sheet myself for quite a while and it's great to see how I'm saving. As I earn in AUD the Sheet is in AUD, so feel free to find/replace $ for Ā£. + +**[Link to the Sheet here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v9ENzdoSIVlfAA2SFVFz6KKVAAu5Knv8klde7bN2Qqo/edit?usp=sharing)** + +If you have any feedback please let me know! I'd love to make it better for people. +TROGE will be the KING of community meme coins on the Binance Smart Chain. + +(Website: [https://troge.io](https://troge.io)) + +&#x200B; + +Not only does TROGE combine the 2 most popular faces ever to exist in internet culture, but rewards Troge Fam in DOGE with 3% on every transaction for true Diamond Hands. 2% tax for LP and solid floor, and 2% to the marketing wallet for maximum exposure and reach. + +&#x200B; + +These days we feel everybody wants to have a ā€œcommunity meme coinā€ but nobody has a real community. We come together through the memes, not a cute picture of a dog in a dinosaur costume that isnā€™t funny in the slightest. + +&#x200B; + +Donā€™t you want to bring le memes back to memecoins? Come see what our Troger Family is all about and enjoy earning passive DOGE rewards in the process. We are all gonna make it, together. + +&#x200B; + +Eventually we will create exclusive NFTs that allow access to virtual and live events for the TROGE squad of based troglodytes, and TROGE the entire world! Unique utilities beyond NFTs are being developed under wraps, and the team is highly motivated for success. + +&#x200B; + +Join our Telegram: + +[t.me/troge\_portal](https://t.me/troge_portal) + +[t.me/trogechina](https://t.me/trogechina) + +&#x200B; + +[twitter.com/trogecoinOG](https://twitter.com/trogecoinOG) +Long-time lurker, but I rarely post. + +I'll add more information as necessary and answer any questions I can, but here is the gist of it. + +&nbsp; + +In my eyes, everything was going fine, then all of a sudden I learn that my father killed himself, he burned through his pension, savings, and tuition money set aside for my brother and sister. He had also opened up joint credit cards in my mom's name in order to perpetuate his extravagent lifestyle, leaving her responsible for over $30,000. She never even knew about those cards, and my father forged her signature, so we were able to get that taken care of. + +&nbsp; + +Now on to me. When I was 18 my father told me to sign a document so I could get a credit card. I asked him if I should read it, and he said no and "explained it" to me. SO I signed it (stupid I know, but I was 18 and I thought he had my best financial interests at heart, he was a banker). This Chase Visa card I used rarely, maybe once or twice a month, and at the end of the month he would tell me how much I spent, and I would pay him cash. When I asked for statements or account access he would tell me not to worry about it. When I asked Chase if we could separate the account (what I know now is a joint liabaility account) several times in the past, they always told me I needed to visit a physical location and that we would both need to sign papers. When I asked my dad if we could do that he said it would be a waste of time and refused. I now see that this account type, discontinued in 2012 due to security concerns, is a financial abuser's dream. I had absolutely no recourse because I was jointly liable but not authorized to conduct any account-related business. + +&nbsp; + +When he dies I get access to the account and see my first statement ever. $3,000 in debt. After my mom gave me the statement and his account information (after going through his files when he died), she let me know that there looked like some fraudulent Uber charges. All of our Uber accounts (including my dad's, I have his phone) were connected to different cards. Turns out there was 2 years of Uber Fraud totaling almost $9,000. So it looks like my dad thought that was my brother or sister, and decided he couldn't get money out of them since they weren't working yet. + +&nbsp; + +Chase has denied my fraud claim because it's been going on for too long, but I feel they didn't really look into my claim at all. The agent I spoke with said the majority of the claims were from Miami (an adjacent city), but would not be able to provide any addresses of any trips. I do feel like they messed up in 2 big ways: + +&nbsp; + +(1) They enabled a financial abuser and prevented his victim from having any recourse. + +(2) They are holding me liable for a debt which they never once communicated to me. I feel that liability without communication is ridiculous. + +&nbsp; + +Uber is a nightmare to get in touch with, and I realize if I'm not a large organization or have a lawyer, they will never respond to me about this. + +&nbsp; + +Do I have any options? Recourse? I know it's not a ton of money, but the thought of having to pay the fraudulent debt of my financial abuser after he killed himself makes me feel sick. I'm not looking for a payout from the fraud that my dad paid off so far, I just want the slate wiped clean. + +&nbsp; + +Sorry if I missed anything, there's a lot going on. + +Edit: Police Report cannot be filed without knowing the specific addresses of the fraud, and Uber won't provide that without screenshots, but I don't have access to the fraudulent account, only to the credit card statements. Looks like I need to work with an attorney (if I decide to not settle it through Chase). + +&nbsp; + +Edit2: To everyone saying he was using the card for Uber, I guess it's possible, but I have his phone and his uber account, and his account was connected to his AMEX. + +&nbsp; + +Edit3: I appreciate everyone lending me their time. It seems like the best course of action is for me to settle with Chase somehow, take this as a $3000 lesson, and maybe with the help of Uber identify later on if the charges were fraudulent and to pursue the perpetrator of the fraud if possible. It's getting really hard to reply and keep thinking about this, so I think I'm going to take a break for while. +So, Verge is pretty "big" for an alt/shitcoin. I remember the hype started when John McAffe (the "celeb" who gets paid for his tweets) tweeted about it, and it's been a shitshow ever since. And the dumb money KEEPS FLOWING IN. + + * Back in November/December, McAffe tweets about Verge (probably got his $105,000.00 for that). Hype starts building up. + * Verge had a "Wraith Protocol" update coming up on a set date. Dev didn't keep true to his word and postponned it. When it finally came out, it wasn't anything impressive. + * Dev made a post asking about paying taxes related to cryptos/coinbase. A few hours after said post, he started a "Give Verge to our pool so we can reveal big news on day XX/YY!!!1" + * Didn't get enough money, some company matched the donation value so he would reveal it anyway. + * Didn't reveal it. Postponned to April 16th. + * Two days ago, their Blockchain was hacked. + * Dev pushed a "fix" and said everything was fine. Wasn't, as hacker still mined free XVG. + * Now Dev pushed another "fix". It was a hardfork. He didn't know it was a hardfork. Let me repeat that. The Dev. Didn't. Know. He. Pushed. A. Hard. Fork. + +Despite all this, XVG is riding a pretty substantial rocket in value, gaining crazy percentages in a consolidated bear market. This honestly feels JUST LIKE BITCONNECT. Dumb money flows in, colorblind to all the red flags that keep popping up and probably thinking they're gray or green. + + +I'm at a loss for words. If anyone knows an exchange that allows me to short Verge, please PM it to me. I'll love some free money when this shit booms. +It seems like lately when there is a sharp decline Coinbase goes offline until things bounce back a bit. Maybe they really are always having issues with there system at the same time that happens but it seems suspect to me. What are some other options that seem to be more reliable? +Iā€™m 23 years old with 20k in my savings account . It took me a couple years to save this amount of money. I still live with my parents and I donā€™t have much debt . Iā€™ve been looking at Ethereum for awhile now, and Iā€™m willing to invest all my savings into Ethereum and hope for the best. Probably hold it for 3+ years or so. Really just want to help my parents out of debt . Itā€™s gone down i believe around 70% since all time high. In 2018 when it all came crashing down it was around 80% . Iā€™m new to this and Iā€™m ready for the high risk high reward and everything goes has plan. I will like some advice from the more experience veterans on here . Should I just go for it ? +Regardless the hard-to-measure dangers posed by its meager hashing power, the feasability of 51% attacks, the sustainability of a chain without a Dev Team behind, a greater problem dooms the ETC chain even if it became dominant (which is highly unlikely). + +ā€¢ Significant trading has occurred over the last few days since the chains split. A significant percentage of ether has changed hands since then, and this is especially true since Coinbase opened ETH trading a few days ago. + +ā€¢ Even if ETC ever became dominant, these trades could not be reversed and the ether since acquired cannot be converted to ether on the previous chain, while the ether sold would be 'restored'. The longer the two chains remain apart, the more this ownership discrepancy will widen. This also holds true for all other tokens (DGD, DGX, MKR) traded on the main Ethereum blockchain. + +ā€¢ A significant portion of the Ethereum community is affected by these changes, possibly more than were affected by the DAO attack, and it will only increase with further chain divergence ā€“ this in addition to those who were dispossessed of their ether in the DAO attack. + +ā€¢ A transition to a dominant state for the ETC fork would require a scramble to the exits from one chain to the next, a massive transfer of wealth from ETH holders to ETC holders and a fairly radical transformation of the ETH shareholder pool in excess of 20% of all extant ether. A great amount of ETC has also already changed hands, probably becoming concentrated among few holders who bought at what they thought was a bargain price. + +ā€¢ The disenfranchisement produced by this transition would far outweigh any similar event we have seen in crypto so far, including MtGox. The more concentrated pool of ETC shareholders that would form would suddenly leave out a significant part of the community that supported it (and the projects that depend on it) for the past two years. The Gini coefficient of ETC would be closer to 1 than any other cryptocurrency's. + +It is possible for Ethereum to be severely or terminally wounded by the ETC chain (which is probably the purpose behind those running the alternate chain), but the ETC chain is almost certainly dead on arrival. +GOTS, part 1.1 + +[GOTS, part 1.2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nuud15/gods_of_the_sun_part_12_manipulating_the_meme/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[GOTS, part 1.3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nv333e/gods_of_the_sun_part_13_manipulating_the_meme/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Hey apes. + +*tldr: this post is the first section of a long post broken into 3 parts (it's really fucking long). *It's about the corruption that almost broke GameStop and is still very much a market issue that we're dealing with as GameStop shareholders*. In other words, this post identifies some of the people who've been fucking with our favorite stock, among others, and possibly sheds light on the meaning of some of DFV and RC's recent tweets. Lots of corruption. Seriously disturbing stuff. And I think we're getting set up for a regulatory trap we can side step if we understand the game we've entered. Please take the time for this one.* + +How many of you have watched the evolving manipulation of the meme stock narrative by hedge fund and bank controlled media outlets since January? I have, and itā€™s been a fascinating shitshow. One of my serious hopes is that our community is the first step in a legitimized demand for the journalistic integrity weā€™re showing, especially in market journalism. So as much as weā€™re [memeing Melissa Lee at CNBC and though I think sheā€™s the most beautiful woman in the world when she says ā€œnaked shortsā€ then analyzes her whoopsie with Shocked Pikachu Face retracement indicators](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nshffm/naked_shorts_just_confirmed_by_the_enemies/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) that are GameStop bullish, hereā€™s the fucked up thing that I hope weā€™re all grasping: + +Melissa Lee was probably getting ripped to shreds in her earpiece in that moment for telling the truth. Why? Because saying ā€œnaked shortingā€ is probably on a banned speech list at CNBC. Why? Something we should all know by now: the hedge funds and their bank friends actually own the market media outlets (directly; theyā€™re on the paperwork) and, when youā€™re caught in a bad market yolo, the truth is costly unless you can suppress it or manipulate the people whoā€™ve called your bluff toward wrong conclusions. + +That said, and to be transparent, I think what weā€™re witnessing with companies outside of GameStop in the memes stock event is the set up for a devastating pump and dump that 1) helps hedge funds, big banks, and the Federal Reserve escape their liquidity problems, 2) aims to scare much of retail away from riding the GameStop MOASS rocket to the actual moon, and 3) gives big finance a narrative to leverage with the SEC to facilitate the regulation of retailā€™s threat to their unchecked financial industry power. Iā€™ll bring as many receipts as possible and some tinfoil analysis to support that opinion. And please hear me clearly before hitting me with any *youā€™re being hateful FUD* when I start exploring AMC and Adam Aron. Iā€™m not. I held AMC until last week and I hope you all get very rich riding these pumps if youā€™re still holding AMC. I also hope you escape the impact of the incoming dumps that I suspect will happen and then buy a metric shit ton of GameStop. And thatā€™s not investment advice. Iā€™m just a MOASS ape and Iā€™m very hopeful. + +Something else Iā€™ll clear up before it gets muddyā€¦ **this post gives a very strong date indication at the end. But Iā€™m not projecting a MOASS date. There can only be one Apestradamus.** However, I do think thereā€™s a strong rocket possibility this week. But it will always be standard casino advice that itā€™s not a good idea to buy options for earnings week when IV is high because of IV crush. Why is that advice still valid in this non standard casino GameStop gambling event? A serious truth remains: the naked short hedges and their bagholding bank friends arenā€™t bankrupt enough to be crying for bailouts from taxpayers yet, so the GameStop forecast is still Clear Moonshot with a certainty of fuckery and a chance of flash crash and/or MOASS next week, and we might go up or down or both or go sideways this week, I'm pretty sure. And thereā€™s a simple way Iā€™m escaping the earning week options uncertainty and [giving DFV a really great birthday present](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Gill) on his way to [the shareholder meeting in Grapevine](https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1400965591800762368?s=20) on the 9th: Iā€™m just going to keep buying and hodling GameStop because I like it so much, you filthy and beautiful FUD crushing apes. + +Letā€™s go. + +**MANIPULATING THE MEME STOCK NARRATIVE** + +I was debating spending my weekend writing this post until I saw [an article on MarketWatch titled ā€œInteractive Brokers founder says **problem with AMC Entertainment memes**: Peopleā€¦ will lose a very substantial amount of money](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/interactive-brokers-founder-says-problem-with-amc-entertainment-memes-peoplewill-lose-a-very-substantial-amount-of-money-11622836260) being directed at our subreddit. I made part of the title bold in my link because itā€™s a FUD fulcrum point. Why? The Interactive Broker founder is Thomas Peterffy, a Citadelā€™s PFOF client, and I think heā€™s playing his part in the hedge fund game with the meme stock narrative. I also think the aim of this game is to point blame at our memes for the losses retail bagholders will experience at the end of an orchestrated meme stock (outside of GameStop) pump and dump. This FUD is a blame shifting mechanism. How? If what weā€™re witnessing with AMC, etc, is a massive pump and dump, the hedge funds, brokers, and bankers are the perpetrators, not the people whoā€™ve been memeing about their crimes. And this article is definitely feigned worry about retail losses, not hedge fund losses. How do we know that? From the article: + +>The market veteran [Peterffy] told MarketWatch in a Friday interview that the big problem with the so-called ā€œmemeā€stock revolution, with assets powered higher on social-media sentiment and not on fundamentals, is that novice investors will be saddled with real losses when stocks like AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC, -6.68% and GameStop Corp. GME, -3.80%, eventually come back down to Earth. + +Thereā€™s a lot to unpack in that paragraph alone, so letā€™s lightly touch four observations (Iā€™ll be dedicating a separate post to the meme stock narrative manipulation) to set the stage for the rest of this post and series to follow. + +First, [MarketWatch is part of Citadelā€™s CME media arm](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/msuj3g/guess_who_is_also_with_citadel_marketwatch_do_i/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) and [Citadel is a primary perpetrator of the market wide naked shorting and FTD scandal as it relates to GameStop](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mn0q9q/theory_all_the_pieces_pt_1_the_anatomy_of_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). That makes this article on MarketWatch a conflict of interest. How? Citadel holds short positions that GME price action has defied and theyā€™re presenting a market authority figure they do business with on their media subsidiary to project downhill price action into Citadelā€™s short positions that will coincide with retail investor losses. That alone is a manipulation of market sentiment. When you combine the media ownership conflict with the media ownerā€™s market positions, thereā€™s a case to be made that itā€™s criminal market manipulation in practice. + +Second, Peterffyā€™s brokerage, Interactive Brokers, is a Citadel [payment for order flow](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/paymentoforderflow.asp) client. That makes his opinion on GameStop his own conflict of interest considering he knows what short hedges yoloed into MOASS. Hereā€™s an [excellent article called ā€œHow Much Does Free Cost?ā€](https://www.elevatecapitaladvisors.com/news/20191007) that mentions the Citadel/IBKR PFOF relationship; the author states: + +>On Thursday, September 26 Interactive Brokers ... announced a new type of account agreement for smaller investors called ā€œIBKR Liteā€ which provides unlimited commission-free trades on US exchange-listed stocks and ETFs. In **a radical departure** from historical operating procedure **Interactive Brokers (IB) would pay for this service by selling the trade order flow to execution services like Citadel and Virtu**. + +To return to a foundational moment for apes, hereā€™s [Peterffyā€™s community famous interview on CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/02/17/interactive-brokers-thomas-peterffy-on-gamestop-hearing.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard) where he talks about broker obligation to go to market to buy shares, which would have pushed GameStop stock prices into the thousands without the buy-button removal manipulation we experienced in January. Notice in retrospect, though some still praise him for being honest, Peterffy avoids calling complicity on the practice of naked short selling and the interview concludes with him brushing off his inclusion in the PFOF scheme that disadvantages retail investors. Say it again. CONFLICT OF INTEREST. + +Third, thereā€™s a pairing of AMC and GameStop in the presented narrative that labels them both meme stocks, an equalization that I think reveals an intent to co-opt and steal GameStop positive sentiment and attach it to AMC. This effort has been thorough and predictive. For instance, we saw articles like [this CCN business GameStop hit piece in March](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/25/investing/gamestop-amc-meme-stocks/index.html) that asserts ā€œGamstop tumbled 33% following its miserable earning reportā€ before offering ā€œ[a]lthough it highlighted a few bright spots, including exploding digital growth, overall sales and profit fell short of Wall Street expectations.ā€ Notice the two false characterizations? First, the earnings report wasnā€™t miserable; it was solid and spoke to positive indicators in the first steps of a company transition still in its infancy. Second, Wall Street bet on GameStop bankruptcy. That means earnings absolutely defied and exceeded their company profit expectations and stomped on the projection of their short hedge bankruptcy bet. Then we see articles hitting the news cycle this week [that call AMC the new king of meme stocks](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-king-meme-stocks-3-173642798.html), asserting: + +>The surge has topped 390% in the last two weeks alone, pushing AMCā€™s stock price to a record high. **Its market capitalization has also ballooned to $31 billion, surpassing other so-called meme stocks. That includes GameStop Corp.**, which now sits at about $21 billion after reaching a high of $25 billion in January. + +Iā€™ll dive deeper into this intentional narratorial pairing of AMC and GameStop as a psychological strategy in a subsequent post. To me, itā€™s both an incredible GameStop bullish indicator and a serious AMC warning. However, it also indicates that serious fraud is still being aimed at us with the idea that it could be successful. + +Fourth, the article tries to drive home the idea of meme stocks being indicative of a revolution, and they are. However, context becomes paramount in this discussion because the MarketWatch article characterizes the meme stock revolution in a manner thatā€™s dangerous to the revolutionaries while the author avoids mentioning the hedge fund crimes that made GameStop MOASS possible in the first place; hereā€™s the characterization: + +>The investments in AMC and GameStop originally started out as **organized short-squeezes by a clutch of individual investors** who had identified that a number of companies were heavily shorted by hedge funds and surmised, correctly, that those stocks could be pressured higher if enough buyers collectively swooped in. + +That ā€œorganizationā€ word. Itā€™s really close to organic, which is the type of community we are, but itā€™s very important that we remember that [Wall Street would love to regulate us out of the market in our current form](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/reddit-traders-gamestop-wallstreetbets-market-manipulation-laws-regulator-esma-gme-2021-2-1030093197) and massive retail losses in a pump and dump they organize could be used as a regulatory excuse to fuck us. And that ā€œorganizationā€ word and its importanceā€¦ from the article: + +>"Discussing the opportunity to buy or sell shares of an issuer does not constitute market abuse," the EU's top market regulator said in a statement. "However, **organizing or executing coordinated strategies** to trade or place orders at certain conditions and times to move a share's price could constitute market manipulation." + +To me, that makes Peterffyā€™s MarketWatch interview a potential indication of hedgie plans. And, in case youā€™re an ā€œSEC will save usā€ ape, hereā€™s what I wrote on Friday about [Citadel hiring the ex-SEC director, Stephen Luparello, to be general counsel and now Chief Legal of the crime empire](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsoiq7/i_just_found_out_citadel_hired_exsec_director/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). Have you heard of [regulatory capture](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/regulatory-capture.asp)? Please get familiar with the term. Hereā€™s an article called [ā€œWhen watchdogs become pets - or the problem of regulatory capture](https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-when-watchdogs-become-pets-or-the-problem-of-regulatory-capture-111170) that offers a good insight for what we are to Wall Street; here, the author states: + +>Self-interested politicians supply regulation. Firms demand it ā€“ usually because they want a competitor regulated. + +Why is that important to apes? + +Simple. + +Weā€™re the competition Wall Street wants to regulate. + +But how do you get to a point of regulating the apes? + +Again, simple. + +You make the general public think that regulations that will fuck apes are a good idea by fucking everyone with a pump and dump you orchestrate with your continued abuse and avoidance of regulations while spinning your crimes to your benefit with the media outlets you own. Those big brain plays. + +But how do we know this meme stock short squeeze narrative is media FUD driving to a conclusion that points away from GameStop? Letā€™s look at how the GameStop and AMC capital raises were treated. + +The Street wasnā€™t a fan of GameStop selling shares as evidenced in an article titled [GameStop plunges on plans to sell 3.5 million shares](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/gamestop-gme-stock-share-offering-sales). Plungesā€¦ this article mentions GameStop and AMC. However, the characterization of GameStopā€™s capital raise fails to give clear indication of a newly debt free company (weā€™ll get to how important that is in this post - itā€™s actually incredible) with unencumbered liquid cash to work with. Here, the author writes: + +>GameStop said it plans to sell the shares through an ā€œat-the-marketā€ equity offering program. It said it intends to use the net proceeds to ā€œfurther accelerate its transformation as well as for general corporate purposes and further strengthening its balance sheet.ā€ + +Then the author enters the AMC FUD zone. Here the author writes: + +>AMC founder and CEO Adam Aron told TheStreet's Jim Cramer last week that his company has been able to navigate its way through the coronavirus pandemic by raising $2.8 billion in cash, thanks in large part to the rally in its share price despite being close to going out of business "five different times last year." + +>AMC in late January said **it raised $917 million in debt and equity** that it said not only takes bankruptcy "completely off the table" but also put it in position to pay down debts accumulated during the pandemic and beef up its coffers. + +>Both GameStop and AMC have become the mascot of retail. + +Two retail mascots, two different characterizations of company capital raises by retail antagonistic media though, and a serious deception. Remember "debt and equity" for when we get to the deception. First though, MarketWatch pumped this article titled [ā€œWhat dilution?: AMC canā€™t stop raising capital by selling more of its meme stock and the market canā€™t stop buying](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-dilution-amc-cant-stop-raising-capital-by-selling-more-of-its-meme-stock-and-the-market-cant-stop-buying-11622568761). This article is a trip all by itself. It references obvious share dilution in AMC, talks positively about AMCā€™s growth plan, and even discusses an existential crisis faced by Redditors seeing Mudrick Capital rip and flip a private AMC share offering. To the existential crisis, the article brings up Mudrick Capital, quoting Redditors, and even going so far as to quote someone calling Jason Mudrick an ā€œapeā€ for being long GME and AMC; the author writes: + +>On Reddit, where retail traders have been singing the praises of AMC for months, users applauded Aronā€™s thinking even while coming to grips with the notion that a meme stock was gaining thanks to a deal with a hedge fund, widely-viewed as the existential enemy of the retail investor after Januaryā€™s short squeeze. + +The article then concludes by quoting [Adam Aron in defence of share dilution he promised shareholders he would avoid just six weeks earlier](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/amc-stock-price-ceo-says-no-stock-sales-new-issuance-2021-4-1030310408): + +>Still, numerous AMC message boards were filled with users questioning why Aron, referred to as ā€œAAā€ would execute another capital raise and risk diluting the stock price by trusting a hedge fund with a large tranche of shares. + +>But Aronā€™s most vocal defender was himself. + +>ā€œIn our view, this is not mindless dilution, but rather this is very smart raising of cash so that we can grow this company,ā€ Aron tweeted. ā€œTo many of you on Twitter, to grow YOUR company. Watch out naysayers, $AMC is going to play on offense again. Here we come!ā€ + +A very smart raising of cash because share dilution is a positive with AMC, right? Hereā€™s [another article that has a fascinating take that glosses over share dilution and tries to subtly paint GameStop as bad for the markets](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/amc-says-it-has-already-completed-share-offering-raises-587-million.html). Again, we have it driven home that AMC is retail driven. The article states: + +>In a curious move typical of the meme stocks, the shares rallied off their lows on news of the completed sale as retail investors cheered the capital raised and looked past the dilution of their stakes. + +Then the author doubles down on this narrative: + +>AMC, the star of the show in Redditā€™s WallStreetBets forum, has soared more than 140% this week alone as retail traders continued to encourage each other to pile into the speculative name. The shares have skyrocketed more than 2,900% this year. + +And the implication in making this point? AMC is the safe squeeze thatā€™s happening unlike the unsafe GameStop squeeze that already happened. And Wall Street agrees about this: + +>While AMCā€™s latest surge is reminiscent of the GameStop mania earlier this year, many on Wall Street believe [the movie theater chain wonā€™t cause a turmoil in the overall market like GameStop did](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/unlike-the-gamestop-bubble-amcs-retail-trading-frenzy-doesnt-pose-the-same-systemic-market-risk.html). Back in January, GameStopā€™s short squeeze caused liquidity headaches at hedge funds and brokerage firms that spiked volatility in the broader market and raised concerns about financial stability. + +And the article CNBC embedded in that paragraph? Hereā€™s what the author had to say about GameStop: + +>The wild trading in AMC Entertainment is giving investors flashbacks of the GameStop saga earlier this year that blew up hedge funds and caused turmoil on Wall Street. However, the recent frenzy doesnā€™t appear to have the same force behind it and likely wonā€™t trigger the same ripple effects. + +>So far, there have been no signs of liquidity issues at any hedge fund or brokerage firm amid the massive rally in AMC driven by **meme-obsessed retail traders**. + +Those meme-obsessed retail tradersā€¦ + +Too bad some of us meme junkies believe in the long term value of GameStop [even though media panned GameStopā€™s planned stock offering as a mixed blessing, unlike AMC, and painted us into everyone else's short squeeze corner](https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-planned-stock-offering-is-a-mixed-blessing-51617647607); here the article writer quotes an analyst with a $30 GameStop target: + +>Feldman wrote, ā€œ[GameStop] has yet to show financial success in an industry that is rapidly shifting to digital. And, we continue to believe the current valuation far exceeds our rosy fundamental expectations and projected multiyear benefits from the strategic transformation.ā€ + +But remember GameStopā€™s ā€œmiserable earning reportā€ while market media glosses over ā€œexploding digital growthā€? Good. Think of AMC when this author offers this gem: + +>The stock sale news is mixed for GameStop. Existing shareholders may reconsider the stockā€™s current valuation and expected dilution, **especially as short sellers are provided easier opportunities to cover their bearish bets.** But the fresh capital is sure to boost Cohenā€™s strategic vision. + +So what is it? Are capital raises good or bad? And for who? One implication of dilution is that more shares mean more opportunities for short hedges to cover their shorts. Regardless, determination of ā€œgood or badā€ by the media seems to depend on which side of the bet the hedge fund that owns the media company is on. + +Iā€™ll conclude with this article where Yahoo provides some important information while [discussing Mudrick and the AMC share dillution](https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/amc-surges-meme-stocks-start-103054396.html), a key to understanding another depth of this saga and why the media is making such effort to obscure perspectives of AMC and GameStop. First, the article creates a negative connotation about video games; the author writes: + +>The move by Mudrick Capital Management to flip 8.5 million shares of the movie theater chain immediately after buying them in a private placement from the company shows how Wall Street is getting bolder about making a quick buck off a trading frenzy that has helped fuel big rallies in several stocks favored by retail investors. + +>**Easy money from the Federal Reserve has "created an almost video game-like atmosphere in the stock market and investing,"** said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading. "There's money flowing everywhere and this is a great illustration of that." + +Weā€™ll get to the Fed in a subsequent post too. Here though, we get to an immediate key to unraveling the AMC situation; the articles offers: + +>Jason Mudrick founded London and New York-based Mudrick Capital in 2009 after leaving investment firm Contrarian Capital Management, **where he had focused on distressed investing for eight years**, according to the hedge fund's website. + +Debt investment... if you know about [vulture funds](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vulturefund.asp) you probably already see the vultures circling AMC, and you understand RCā€™s Sears tweet. You also know what happened to Toys-R-Us. But stay tuned regardless because this exploration gets a bit mind bending. So letā€™s wash our minds of the media FUD we just explored [because GameStop has always been a long term value play with the possibility of MOASS](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/former-chewy-ceo-ryan-cohen-urges-gamestop-to-become-the-amazon-of-video-games.html) despite GameStop and GameStop investors getting co-opted into the meme stock narrative. + +And breathe. + +Now that your mind is clear because youā€™ve remembered that RC is paving a debt free path to building GameStop into the Amazon of the video game industry, remember that [DFV tweeted a scene from the movie ā€œParasiteā€](https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1400157768170889221?s=20) - parasites weā€™re going to attempt to identify. + +You might feel dirty as we go further, but donā€™t worry, [weā€™re still pushing GameStop bears off the wall like this girl](https://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/have-you-seen/2021/06/01/teenage-girl-fights-off-huge-bear-protect-her-dogs/7496469002/), you bunch of girls. + +RC VERSUS THE VULTURE FUNDS + +[RC tweeted a picture of a Sears sign](https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1400492465442811904?s=20) being torn down on June 3rd, 2021. + +How many of you remember Sears? I do and I hated it. My Mom-ape would drag me there while she shopped for a vacuum or new washing machine. We never got either. I wished Sears would disappear. Then I remember [watching the local Sears get shuttered as an adult](https://www.businessinsider.com/rise-and-fall-of-sears-bankruptcy-store-closings). I didnā€™t realize until this week that my Mom-ape couldnā€™t afford a new vacuum and Sears disappeared because Mom-ape and Sears shared a vulture fund problem. + +Hereā€™s a synopsis of [what a vulture fund is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulture_fund) from the first paragraph of the wiki: + +>A vulture fund is a hedge fund, private-equity fund or distressed debt fund, that invests in debt considered to be very weak or in default, known as distressed securities. Investors in the fund profit by buying debt at a discounted price on a secondary market and then using numerous methods to subsequently sell the debt for a larger amount than the purchasing price. Debtors include companies, countries, and individuals. + +What does that mean? It means that a company considered to be on the brink of failure or in a bottleneck situation where it needs access to credit to remain viable is vulnerable to getting picked apart by debt investors, kind of like how vultures start circling a distressed animal when it becomes apparent that the animal might die. For example, [our other favorite store Toys-R-Us got picked apart](https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/toys-r-us-creditors-sue-former-bain-capital-kkr-execs) by Bain Capital, a [Mitt Romney founded vulture fund that gets described here in Rolling Stone in conjunction with Romneyā€™s 2012 Presidential campaign](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/why-private-equity-firms-like-bain-really-are-the-worst-of-capitalism-241519/); this article gives a great description of a debt investment strategy known as a **leveraged buyout**: + +>Hereā€™s what private equity is really about: A firm like Bain obtains cheap credit and uses it to acquire a company in a ā€œleveraged buyout.ā€ ā€œLeverageā€ refers to the fact that the company being purchased is forced to pay for about 70 percent of its own acquisition, by taking out loans. **If this sounds like an odd arrangement, thatā€™s because it is. Imagine a homebuyer purchasing a house **and making the bank responsible for repaying its own loan*, and you start to get the picture.** + +>O.K., **but what about this much more virtuous business of swooping in and restoring struggling companies to financial health? Well, thatā€™s not a large part of what private equity firms do, either. In fact, they more typically target profitable, slow-growth market leaders.** (Private equity firms presently own companies employing one of every 10 U.S. workers, or 10 million people.) + +>And thatā€™s when the fun starts. **Once the buyout is completed, the private equity guys start swinging the meat axe, aggressively cutting costs wherever they can** ā€“ so that the company can start paying off its new debt ā€“ by laying off workers and cutting capital costs. This process often boosts operating profit without a significant hit to the business, but only in the short term; **in the long run, the austerity approach makes it difficult for companies to stay competitive, not least because money that would otherwise have been invested in expansion or product development ā€“ which might increase revenue down the line ā€“ is used to pay off the companyā€™s debt.** + +And hereā€™s the kicker; not only do these vulture funds destroy companies that ape families and communities rely on, whether or not these companies are viable, they get tax breaks for doing it. That means vulture funds effectively screw apes twice, not to mention how this insider practice interrupts market realities for retail investors to the advantage and profit of Wall Street scammers gaming the system. Again from the article: + +>leveraged buyouts ... also short-change taxpayers, via a giant loophole in the tax code that enables companies to deduct loan interest from taxes. The provision was originally intended to encourage borrowing to build new factories, not to finance leveraged buyouts. But ... private equity-owned companies paid a 22 percent tax rate before being bought, and only 10 percent the year after being acquired. That adds up to a savings of $130 billion in taxes since 2000. + +And how does what I just wrote relate to RCā€™s Sears tweet? Hereā€™s an article titled [ā€œIt Was Vulture Capitalism that Killed Searsā€](https://prospect.org/economy/vulture-capitalism-killed-sears/) and subtitled <i>Donā€™t blame Amazon or the internet. It was a predatory hedge fund.</i> And who was the vulture fund that destroyed Sears? From the article: + +>In the case of Sears, the culprit is a hedge-fund operator named Edward Lampert, once a senior merger guy at **Goldman Sachs**. + +So... Edward Lampert entered into vulture capitalism from the same Goldman Sachs that has a substantial short position in the GameStop bankruptcy bet. The same Goldman Sachs that helps short hedges indefinitely FTD on their short borrows. And why? Hereā€™s a big chunk of the article that tells how profitable it can be to kill a company by encumbering it with debt you control: + +>In 2005, Lampert merged Sears with Kmart, loaded both up with debt, and used some of the debt on stock buybacks to pump up the share price and enrich shareholders, notably himself and his hedge fund. + +>The Sears story shows how hedge fund operators can thrive even as the underlying company is pillaged. In a decade, 175,000 people at Sears/Kmart lost their jobs and revenue was cut in half. Various pieces of Sears were sold off. Lampert did just fine. + +>His net worth soared to over $8 billion after he did the Sears deal. In some years, he made over $1 billion just in income. After ballooning by several billion in the years when Sears stock was high-flying, Lampert's reported net worth is back down to something like $2 billionā€”below its peak but still astronomical and all based on taking down one of America's great companies. + +>Lampert's hedge fund also became a prime lender to Sears, making money off of commissions and interest charges as well as being a prime shareholder. Lampert's core strategy was to enrich himself, even if he ran Sears into the ground. For the most part, the nostalgia coverage of the demise of Sears has missed this. + +Wow, eh? + +Something that must be understood about this debt investment practice is how well it pairs with predatory naked short selling. How does it relate? The debt investment ā€œcapital boostā€ pumps sentiment and stock price on the distressed asset, then the corporate raider austerity measures kick in, the targeted company begins to struggle, and bear raiders start their work mirroring the intentionally created downward stock price action through short hedge investment pressure and media FUD that tarnishes investor sentiment about the company. The point: itā€™s easier to guarantee unbelievable personal profit guiding a company into failure than it is to risk guiding it into a corporate turnaround and transformation like RC has put forward with GameStop. However, itā€™s tricky to guide a company into failure while pretending youā€™re trying to increase its value. To that point, hereā€™s [another Prospect article, this one a dive into naked shorting and FTDs as they relate to GameStop](https://prospect.org/power/gamestop-mess-exposes-the-naked-short-selling-scam/) that pairs well with [u/atobittā€™s HOC DDs](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) and points to Goldman Sachs as a serious culprit in the scam like u/atobitt and [Lucy Komisar in her first r/SuperStonk AMA](https://youtu.be/wKXWvEpnN34). From the Prospect article: + +>Citadel, as a market maker that has to accept all buys and sells, gets a pass on many naked short selling rules. Even then ... in 2020, Citadel violated the Security Commissionā€™s Reg SHO, the rule regulating short sales. On November 13, 2020, FINRA, the tradersā€™ self-regulator, fined Citadel Securities $180,000 for failing to mark 6.5 million equity trades as short sales between September 14, 2015, and July 21, 2016. Citadel did not admit or deny the allegations but paid the fine. + +>The problem is not new. **The SEC and New York Stock Exchange fined Goldman Sachs an infinitesimal $2 million in 2007 for allowing customers for more than two years to use its automated direct market access system and automatically mark short orders as long.** + +>Beyond that, the SEC rule itself is so weak, **traders can roll over naked shorts and stay naked indefinitely.** + +Hereā€™s another ape post about this FTD scam from a smooth brained beauty named u/nequin about there being nearly [$1B of FTDs on May 14th, 2021 between GME and associated ETFs](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrpjle/almost_1b_ftd_on_may_14th_between_gme_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). On May 14th, 2021. Oh boy that cheeky retail that loves popcorn so much... + +Remember Mudrick Capital ripping and flipping a private AMC share offering? Something obviously doesnā€™t add up. But what? + +First, I think it needs to be understood that much of AMCā€™s company capital raise is a debt investment, corporate raiders circling the carcass thatā€™s circling other theater company carcasses with itā€™s debt encumbrance masquerading as a capital infusion in tandem with the share dilution. We then have media flogging AMC as a Reddit frenzy. Such a frenzy in fact that the media is [projecting the AMC stock price blasted up through a trading halt because of free popcorn](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57334263) and, in case you forget, this article pairs their obviously justifiable caution of AMC investment with GameStop investment; the author states: + +>[AMC] promised to give free popcorn to smaller investors. + +>Analysts have said that so-called "meme" stocks, such as **AMC and GameStop, should be approached with caution.** + +>It is the latest example of amateur investors trying to seize power from Wall Street giants. + +The article then doubles down on this assertion and implication of market manipulation by retail investors: + +>But [Wall Street has] faced losses after amateurs, swapping tips on social media sites like Reddit or Twitter, drove prices up. + +It then offers an appeal to authority: + +>"The party could go on as long as investors continue co-acting," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. "The problem is, the higher the price goes, the higher is the temptation to take profit and walk away." + +Now, letā€™s pair that assertion with the oddity of [AMC warning retail investors not to buy in despite it offering shares that Mudrick gobbled up and spat out like a whore bear](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/06/03/amc-meme-stock-trading-suspended/). Just absorb this piece of information reported June 3rd, 2021: + +>In a filing Thursday with the Securities and Exchange Commission, [AMC] highlighted the extreme price fluctuations of its stock and the stark disconnect between the passions of retail investors and its actual operations. + +>ā€œWe believe that the recent volatility and our current market prices reflect market and trading dynamics unrelated to our underlying business, or macro or industry fundamentals, and we do not know how long these dynamics will last,ā€ AMC said in the filing. ā€œUnder the circumstances, we caution you against investing in our class A common stock, unless you are prepared to incur the risk of losing all or a substantial portion of your investment.ā€ + +>The company went on to list several risks to investors, including rapid and substantial price spikes and falls; the fickle sentiment of online trading communities; share prices that diverge from the companyā€™s financial performance; and the market dynamics of a ā€œshort squeeze.ā€ + +But what about the naughty words Melissa Lee said? What about predatory short funds and their vulture pals and the risks they pose to investors? No mention. But we do get the pairing of AMC with GameStop while demonizing retail investors: + +>AMCā€™s whipsaw is being propelled by retail investors ā€” many active on Redditā€™s WallStreetBets forum ā€” mirroring the trading mania that swept through markets earlier this year alongside GameStop and other companies that institutional investors had bet against. And its rise is just as untethered from financial performance. + +And whatā€™s the take away weā€™re supposed to believe? + +Hereā€™s the setup: [Wall Street are the experts](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/08/gamestop-wallstreet-wealth/), itā€™s [apes that are the problem for market stability and regulators](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/02/03/gamestop-sec-regulation/), and [Adam Aron is *Silverback*, the most retail friendly of CEOs, and weā€™re not listening to his company when they say ā€œdonā€™t buyā€... even though media is also pumping him as the retail hero apes call AA](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/how-amc-ceo-adam-aron-embraced-the-company-meme-status-2021-6-1030496427). + +And whatā€™s the likely purpose of creating this FUD narrative? + +**AMC is on the official SEC record warning retail that they shouldnā€™t invest in AMC, media is branding AMC price action as detached from reality because of a frenzied retail coup, theyā€™re laying whatā€™s likely a hedge fund orchestrated pump and dump at the feet of retail investors, and AMC fomo retail investors that get crushed by the dump (or pretend to be) are a perfect scapegoat to justify regulating our community instead of hedge funds.** Remember when we memed popcorn at the hedgies? Guess what? These are fickle pricks (weā€™ll explore that in a subsequence post I might call ā€œUpset hedgie titty slap battlesā€) and theyā€™re mocking us with free popcorn in exchange for the AMC shares weā€™re stupid enough to buy. + +And whatā€™s the point of bringing up vulture funds? + +The same vulture fund tried to buy GameStop and AMC. + +Why is that interesting? + +Because Adam Aron has deep ties to that vulture fund. + +Why else? + +RC tweeted about a company that, like GameStop, was getting victimized by an obvious vulture fund pump and dump scheme. + +And riddle me thisā€¦ AMC is a distressed asset likely being raided, [Adam Aron is raving about AMCā€™s new investors that are at odds with Wall Street](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/amc-ceo-adam-aron-raved-about-its-reddit-investors-on-an-earnings-call.html), he went back on his promise to shareholders about share dilution while media spun the share offering positively, and AMCā€™s official SEC filing is a stated warning to investors that theyā€™re probably going to get crushed. + +Hmm. + +I detect corporate and media complicity in a Wall Street scam. + +I also [detect that RC likely refused to play ball with the vulture funds](https://twitter.com/ryancohen/status/1399526466770059268?s=20). + +Regardless, welcome to the debt investment game, apes. + +GOTS, part 1.1 + +[GOTS, part 1.2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nuud15/gods_of_the_sun_part_12_manipulating_the_meme/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[GOTS, part 1.3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nv333e/gods_of_the_sun_part_13_manipulating_the_meme/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) +Link to original post is below. + +I decided to talk to management about my 50% raise offer from a competitor. The flow of the conversation went: + +1. Was headhunted for a job that offers both career opportunity and financial benefit. I shared the details of the compensation. + +2. Explained how happy I am in my current role, and how much I appreciated their support and development of my career. + +3. Said the meeting was not my resignation, but the gravity of my new offer was too much to ignore. Asked if there was anything from them for me to at least consider in my decision, to please let me know before the end of the next day. + +The response from management was nothing but positive reaction. The next morning, they had documented with HR a 30% raise, retention bonus, and a nice intangible benefit that helped scratch the itch of the new jobā€™s career offering. I accepted their counter, and am staying put. + +After the dust settled, management apologized for indirectly putting me in this situation by not providing compensation more in line with market value. They also thanked me for giving them a shot at retention, and were appreciative of my professional and tactful approach. + +All in all, my story seems to have a happy ending. For anyone with a similar dilemma, my lessons learned are this: + +1. Understand the value you bring to an organization. Value = negotiating power. + +2. Frame the conversation in terms of mutual understanding. The tone of my meeting probably changes significantly had I communicated sharply in the vein of, ā€œdo something for me or Iā€™m out.ā€ + +3. Donā€™t be loyal to a company, be loyal to the people within the company. More importantly, look out for yourself first. + +4. There is more to life than compensation. I gave up a lot of money, but retained decent work life balance, enjoy what i do, and have awesome people around me. It may not always be this good, but living in the now matters. + +Good luck to everyone and thanks for all the input! + +https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/p7exdh/headhunted_for_a_job_now_in_a_dilemma_over_what/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf +* Some Airbnb hosts are charging cleaning fees and asking guests to complete a list of chores. +* Frustrated travelers say they've been asked to mow the lawn, take out the trash, and wash the sheets. +* The trend is causing some people to ditch short-term rentals for hotels, WSJ reported Friday + +Some Airbnb hosts are requiring guests to complete lengthy chore lists on top of paying cleaning fees up to $375, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday. + +Frustrated travelers have pushed back on social media, with some saying they've been asked to take out the trash, wash the sheets, and even mow the lawn during their stay. + +One TikToker [u/Melworeit](https://www.reddit.com/u/Melworeit/) said in a viral video that she decided not to book on Airbnb because it charged a $125 cleaning fee and asked guests to take out the garbage, remove bed linens, run the dishwasher, and do a load of laundry. + +The post amassed 66,000 views and nearly 5,000 comments, many of which shared similar encounters with Airbnb chore lists. + +"If I'm paying $229 a night to stay somewhere plus a $125 cleaning fee, I'm not doing any laundry," the TikToker said. "I know it's like one load of laundry and it'll take me two minutes to do, but it's the principle that really bothers me." + +Another Airbnb guest took to Reddit in July to ask if it was "normal for a host to tell the guest to mow the lawn themselves?" + +"Seems like a strange response given the premium being paid for staying here (to me, at least), but if that's standard then I'll roll with it," the user wrote. "I just don't want to be penalized/charged/poorly reviewed for 'neglecting' the lawn if I don't do it." + +An Airbnb spokesperson told Insider that while hosts choose their own cleaning fees, the company has provided recommendations for keeping the amount reasonable and suggests hosts consider not charging cleaning fees at all. According to the company, 45% of global Airbnb listings do not charge a cleaning fee, and for those that do, the fee on average is less than 10% of the total reservation cost. + +"Would you like guests to load dirty dishes into the dishwasher or strip the bed linen before checkout? If so, consider charging a very minimal cleaning fee ā€“ or no fee at all," the Airbnb host resource page on cleaning fees says. "With a higher fee, guests may expect to just walk away from your space at checkout as they would a hotel room." + +Kimanzi Constable, a full-time digital nomad who has stayed in over 100 Airbnbs, told Insider that some hosts have asked him to complete chores without providing basic cleaning and laundry supplies. + +"Airbnb hosts have asked me to do chores such as take out the garbage when checking out, do the dishes, clean up, and other measures to help the host, despite me paying a cleaning fee, which can be high these days. I'm more than happy to contribute ā€” if I have the supplies needed," Constable wrote. "Hosts should either provide all the necessary items, or scrap the cleaning fee entirely." + +See full article here: [https://www.businessinsider.com/travelers-slam-airbnb-chore-lists-mow-lawn-laundry-cleaning-fees-2022-9](https://www.businessinsider.com/travelers-slam-airbnb-chore-lists-mow-lawn-laundry-cleaning-fees-2022-9) +#EDIT WELL THIS ESCALATED FAST https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q72aje/hey_member_that_whole_cellar_boxing_thing_and/ + +#749,000% GAINZ LETS GO! CELLAR BOX GME? STELLAR BOX MMS! ENJOY THE RIDE ASSHOLES! + +It's wild that anti GME subs even exist. If popcorn had not squeezed a second time, then I may be inclined to respect anyone who may say, "GME already squoze, you lost." but the fact that popcorn squeezed TWICE, HARDER AND STILL HASN'T FALLEN should really speak to anyone who even suspects wallstreet corruption. + +Popcorn's chart is beautiful and it's especially beautiful when you scroll before 5/21 and compare it to present day & 5/21 GME. You can actually just look at the GME chart and tell that it is exponentially greater than popcorn. You can actually see both charts being actively cellar box'd and you can see the point where retail noticed on GME. Retail never noticed on popcorn. The two charts show you that popcorn was a by product of GME. Are they both naked shorted well beyond their float? Absolutely. The buy pressure from 9/1/2020 leading up to January on GME is much stronger and likely lead to why GME sneezed so hard the first time but it did not fully squeeze just like popcorn didn't fully squeeze. It's my belief that popcorn will indeed reach a **18,000%** squeeze similar to GME and I'll explain why and I'll explain why GME can squeeze exponentially harder than **18,000%** + +#January + +* Popcorn sneezed 1065% from its all time low (1.91$) to 20.36$ +* **GME sneezed 18,793% from its all time low (2.57$) to 483$** (Remember that %age for later) + +# May + +* Popcorn sneezed 3800% from its all time low (1.91$) to 72.62$ +* GME??? Where GME??? (It's because if GME were to sneeze again it would cause the MOASS) + +#Today + +So popcorn sneezed 3800% and GME sneezed 18,793% and people wonder why popcorn isn't higher? Well it will be. I suspect popcorn will hit a 18,000% sneeze before GME MOASS occurs. Why? + +#GLCO 7/31/01 + +* Squeezed from 0.02Ā¢ to 3.5$ a gain of 17,500% + +What's GLCO? Why do I care about GLCO? GLCO was quite possibly one of the very first cellar box cases in the financial world. In 2005 they issued a 1:350 reverse stock split which means **for every 350 shares you own you now have 1 share** this reduced their share count down to 1,100,000 shares yet the very same day 143,000,000 shares traded hands. The float was traded **130x** in one day. For reference, GME has traded **66x** since January. For further reference, AMZN has a float of 454m and an AVG volume of 3.1m a day. That means, AMZN trades its float once every 146 days on average. + +A reverse stock split should increase a stock's price (think if you had 5 POGs and each one cost 1$ and then you did a 1:5 reverse split well now that 1 POG is worth 5 so the price should now be 5$) but in GLCO's case it fell from 10Ā¢ to under 1Ā¢. That doesn't make any sense. The stock continued to fall all the way down to 0.0001Ā¢ (sound familiar cellar box?) until something amazing happened on 1/31/08. I cannot find the cause of the increased volume, but I suspect it has to do with the 2008 financial crisis and how wallstreet insiders probably knew of it well before it occurred later in September that year. + +#GLCO 1/31/08 + +GLCO squeezed **650,000%** from its cellar of 0.0001Ā¢ to 0.65Ā¢ That sounds like a lot so let me give you an example. If you invested 100$ into this stock at 0.0001Ā¢ you'd receive 1,000,000 shares. When it squeezed **650,000** those 1,000,000 shares would now be worth 650,000$ You turned 100$ into 650,000$ + +It was later discovered that GLCO was naked short sold almost 27x its float by the discovery of 27,000,000 FTDs on a 1,100,000 float. That was *just* the information that got discovered. Who knows how much it was really NSS'd? We do know one thing about GLCO, though. GLCO did not have apes. GLCO didn't have apes who believed in it and had no issue going toe to toe with wallstreeet. Meme stocks have apes. + +#Summary + +So we know that just based on some "oops" FTDs that got leaked, GLCO was NSS'd at least 27x its entire float. We also know that GLCO was effectively cellar boxed in at 0.0001. GLCO continues to make gigantic squeezes during financial crisis. During the COVID19 crash, GLCO squeezed another 4333% from 0.0003 to 0.013. The world will never know exactly how many naked shorts were sold against GLCO but a 650,000% squeeze would assume it was a lot. Knowing the game of cellar boxing gives the player the advantage of knowing that to effectively cellar box a company, it must be naked shorted into oblivion. People see 18,000% gains and think that means something when it comes to a stock actively being cellar boxed. 18,000% is only 2.7% of 650,000%. + +* If GME were to squeeze 650,000% today, the share price would be worth 1,150,677$ a share. + +The reason people say the price doesn't matter is because it doesn't. The naked short sellers cannot close. We're not waiting for them to. We're waiting for a third party intervention. DTCC has allowed cellar boxing for 20years because the consequences of a stock trading at 0.0001Ā¢ squeezing 650,000% are a lot easier to handle than a stock trading at 177$ + +#Closing + +This is why it's wild that anti GME subs even exist. If you point someone to cellar boxing DD, show them countless examples of companies being naked sold short into bankruptcy after having just read the cellar boxing DD then I'm not sure how they could honestly refute that. While popcorn has diluted their float, I think it has effectively killed the MOASS idea there. Remember, GLCO shrank their float and their stock still went down; Popcorn added **more** to the float effectively making the situation better for the naked short sellers. I believe Popcorn will continue to go up, but as Burry has said, there can never be another GME. GME's small float, new leadership, zero debt and apes holding have created the MOASS. When I read /u/thabat 's DD on cellar boxing, it was a the most jaw dropping realization for me, ever. It was essentially the equivalent of casting Sense on your enemy in a Final Fantasy game and being told their weakness. It may possibly turn out to be the most important part in my life. We'll see. +You will be given 100 Bitcoin and 100 Ethereum, but in return you will be put to sleep for 5 years. Would you accept that? (When you wake up, Bitcoin will be worth 300K and Ethereum 65K) + +Even though I know I would probably say yes, the possibility that something bad might happen to my acquaintances while I'm asleep and not being unable to help them would have left me in doubt, but the idea of ā€‹ā€‹starting a new life as a rich man 5 years later would really appeal to me + +I'm really curious about people's answers on this question +I live in Sydney, turning 30 now. I have saved around 300k which should be enough for a deposit. But I am worried if I buy now, I will be buying around the top. it is really unaffordable by any measure. Maybe it will be better buying in a few years after this government is done. Maybe the next one will seriously thinking about negative policy. What might drive the price to continue to go up? If nothing, should I buy now or just wait? +So, something I've always been curious about is how to set up a trust fund that will provide for my family for generations to come. A recent post quoted a statistic that a families wealth is gone by the 3rd generation in 70% of cases. I want to be that 30%! + + +Now, the three biggest challenges I see to achiving this: +- Asshole family members that steal all the money for themselves via lawers or scamming. +- Lazy/Spoiled family members that squander it. +- Running out of money, too many hands in the pot. + +I think it's an interesting thought experiment to try and figure out how to give without giving too much, and how to maintain solvency from beyond the grave when people who don't share your FI values could be in control. + +One of my initial ideas is to split the fund into "SWR" chunks and distribute yearly/monthly to each generation separately. If there are 3 kids (2nd generation), each of their families get 33%, if 1 kid has 2 kids(3rd generation) then the 33% would be split further. That keeps it fair for each family. + +Another idea, you could split it by person: if there are 3 kids(2nd generation) and one has 2 kids(3rd generation) then the "SWR" would be split 5 ways or 20% each. However, then the family of 3 would be getting more than the other two, favoring them for having more kids, essentially diluting the pool for their brothers/sisters. when a family is getting large after a few generations the payouts will get tiny! + +The distributions wouldn't start until 18 or 25 because I'd like it to come at a time when you really need the money but are old enough to appreciate it. I also don't want it to be a "lump sum" which is easily lost (see: lotto winners) +Is everyone getting played here/ on reddit in general? + +Obviously there was a pump earlier, but besides all of the 10day old accounts chiming in, is there some solid information we can have on these stocks? + +Yes, yes, do your own DD.. Iā€™m just looking for a general discussion. I bought both companies below what theyā€™re at now, so looking okay, but the hype trains seem weird and I know retail doesnā€™t have the power to move stocks as much as theyā€™ve been pumping. + +Curious & Concerned + + +"the global selloff began overnight after China reported weak economic reports that deepened worries about how tariffs are hurting growth. + +"The ongoing trade war remains a headwind, truce or no truce," Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, wrote to clients on Friday. + +Friday's slide leaves US markets on track for a second consecutive week of losses. The S&P 500, down 10% in the fourth quarter, is on track for its worst quarter since 2011." +Through acquiring ownership an ambulatory surgery center it looks like I will have 200-400K of K1 income annually for the foreseeable future. This is great but Iā€™d like to avoid losing 45% of that to taxes. + +Are there ways of offsetting the K1 gains with losses through real estate that donā€™t involve actively managing properties or personally finding and buying them? Iā€™m not a real estate or financial guy just a doctor trying to help people but not get raked over with tax liability. I want to spend my time helping folks not managing real estate. + +Thanks for all the helpful posts in this awesome community. +Place your puts as Boeing stock is likely to tank due to this news. Airlines donā€™t want to fly planes that customers donā€™t feel comfortable flying in and these consistent Boeing airplane crashes shouldnā€™t be taken lightly. The Boeing name used to be a hallmark brand of quality. Put options apes. + +Callout: Boeing plane that crashed was a 737-800, not a 737 MAX. + +Source 1: [Boeing 737-800 Crash China - New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/21/world/china-eastern-airlines-crash/guangxi-crash) + +Source 2: [6 days since Boeing reintroduced 737 MAX in China](https://amp.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3170469/boeing-737-max-en-route-china-first-delivery-3-years-fatal) + +Source 3: [WARNING GRAPHIC - Boeing 737 straight down](https://twitter.com/ChinaAvReview/status/1505834279275999236?s=20&amp;amp;amp;t=4SwtH6agbS-Aq_gR2dlA-Q) + +Source 4: [Netflix Boeing Documentary Trailer - ā€œDownfallā€](https://youtu.be/vt-IJkUbAxY) +ETC's rise to "fame" happened, in part, because of the news cycle. Now that the story's been told, only the substance will remain. Is there any substance? I don't see much. +Welcome to the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is intended as a welcome place for discussion of all non-Ethereum related crypto. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Hello, + +I have been looking at HYLD (the Hamilton one traded on the TSX, not the one traded on the NYSE). Here is a link for anyone not familiar with it: [https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/hyld/](https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/hyld/) + +A few points: +1) The ETF is quite new, but is essentially an "ETF of ETFs", and in this sense the underlying holdings are not 'new'. + +2) It utilizes a covered call strategy to get enhanced yield + +3) It utilizes a 25% leverage to overcome the commonly reported 'downside' of covered calls, which is that they greatly limit growth. + +4) While the ETF is 'new', it is essentially the Solactive U.S. Covered Call ETFs Index with a 1.25 multiplier (due to the 1.25 leverage). + +5) The current yield is around 11% + +6) A comparison of the SP500 index vs. the Solactive U.S. Covered Call ETFs Index x1.25 shows pretty close correlation. Most comforting (to me) is that the Solactive U.S. Covered Call ETFs Index x1.25 matches the SP500 quite closely during the 2020 bear market and subsequent recovery which seems to suggest this index(x1.25) can handle drawdowns and match the subsequent recovery of the SP500. + +7) While I understand I could simply buy the underlying holdings, from what I can gather it seems institutions like Hamilton can get a much better rate on their leverage than I (a personal investor) could get. Thus, it is the 1.25 leverage that makes this ETF interesting as this leverage helps to enhance the recoveries and is also cheaper than if I personally tried to replicate this fund. + +With these points in mind, my question is: +What are the realistic risks of this ETF? If you put in a million dollars (and don't really plan on needing this cash at any point), it seems you can rely on an income of \~ 110,000 CAD/year. I get that the principle could vary a lot, but the core ETFs that comprise this ETF seem to have pretty stable/reliable distributions. As the Solactive U.S. Covered Call ETFs Index x1.25 tracks the SP500 reasonably well, it seems like it could be a reasonably safe choice long term. While I don't plan on moving all my investments into this fund, I can't help but admit that it's tempting based on the risk/reward that I can see. I'd be curious what additional risks more experienced investors would have to share. Are there any more serious risks that anyone can share? + +Thanks. +I've done 7 years at a startup and am leaving to join a new startup (series A). Yes, I exercised and took my equity with me. + +At 32 now, I have cash, and though I know its somewhat risky, I want to take advantage of QSBS Tax Exemption at this new startup. I didnt do it last time and regret it. + +QSBS allows $10M in profits from equity sale to be treated as capital gains, if the employee originally acquired the shares when the company still had gross assets <$50M. + +Has anyone done this before to great (or poor) effect? Would love to get some perspective. + +Joining a biz at series A is effectively the same as taking the view of a VC, only you invest your time instead of money. It was a no brainer for me relative to my last startup. Sadly its true that loyalty doesn't pay. The new startup offers higher pay, early equity, better benefits, its far more scalable, and run by a proven founder. + +So if I'm betting on the series A startup by joining so early, and I believe it will exit and my equity will become valuable, it makes sense to plan for a possible liquidity event. +I had an 8 figure liquidation event recently for a business I spent 15 years building. I decided to keep a small ownership % and am staying on as C level exec, but will no longer be the man in charge. Iā€™m happy to retain a decent salary/benefits so that I donā€™t need to use the proceeds to handle my day to day cash flow. Everything is awesome! + +I am struggling a bit with reminding myself I shouldnā€™t care so much when I notice things are done without my involvement or not being asked my feedback. I sometimes go check my bank account balance to make me feel better. Iā€™m not sure how much is ego vs habit. Ultimately I took the deal to take pressure of myself and spend more time with the family and these thoughts have been a little counterproductive. Has anyone else been in the same boat and can provide some feedback or advise? + +Thnx +> The IRS doesnā€™t want people abusing the five-year rule with rentals that they move back into just before the sale. +> If you rent out your property for two years and then move back in for two years before selling it, you must prorate your exclusion because the exception to periods of non-qualifying use only applies to portions of the five-year use test period that occur after the last date that the property is used as a principal residence + +I am sharing this because 2 out of 5 year rule has slightly changed but ppl may not be aware of the change. +source: https://www.merriman.com/wealth-preservation/planning-on-moving-back-into-your-rental-in-the-future-read-this-first/ +Hi, + +As stated in the title, I'm nineteen years old, without a job, and soon to be homeless. I have about $180 in the bank, with around $300 placed on "temporary hold" by my banking institution. My vital records (birth certificate, SS card) were stolen out of my bag while homeless previously (not the first go around). I do not have any friends or family to stay with temporarily. I am currently looking for a job but am deeply unsure of how exactly to attain and maintain a job while totally homeless...I've been told to join the military on some occasions, but my eyesight is putrid (-5.5 prescription) and I'm certainly not the military type. I also do not have my contacts or glasses and don't have enough money to afford new ones, meaning it can be difficult for me to function in a daily work environment which includes, well, vision. I really don't know what to do at this point. Someone please help me out. + + + + + + + +Norwegian Einar Aas lost $117 million in a power bet. He has been famous in Norway for many years for consistently beating the market. + +Many companies now have to pay to the default fond. Can someone ELI5? + +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-14/nordic-power-whale-s-losses-on-nasdaq-another-blow-to-exchange + +edit: and why are companies a part of the default fund? What do they get out of it? + +edit 2: this case reminds me about another Norwegian, Idar Vollvik. He sold a company with a profit of about $120 million. He day traded with it all and also got margin called. He went completely broke, just like Einar Aas here. Why not put away 10% if you screw it all up? For Aas, I guess it would not have mattered since he did it all as private person. +Iā€™ve heard that spending money on options are the equivalent of blowing money in Las Vegas. But I also hear that you can make a lot of money very fast, and some people are consistently making profit with options. I donā€™t want to waste months learning options if it isnā€™t a good investment of time. Whatā€™s the likelihood I can make a living trading options? How many people make a living doing it? How long will it take me to make a living doing it? How much money do I need to start trading options? +Contract: +- 1 year. +- $22,000 +- 1000M/h on ethhash algorithm. + +(this is from hashflare) + +According to etherscan, it would make me $2,605 a month, $31,260 a year based on current value of Ethereum being $725 a pop. + +Is it worth it? (Note: I can afford to lose $22,000 and still live life. Don't need to worry about that. Please don't comment on that.) + + +ETH Trader, + +Safe to say that we all recognize that the much anticipated Devcon is right around the corner. However, ETH has experienced some actual loss with XMR taking the high-volume-coin-spotlight, ETC not exactly being reduced to ash, and BTC rising. However, as usual, it demonstrates high resilience. + +I'm optimistic and think that Devcon will positively impact the ETH price but there are a lot of variables at play. How do you guys see this going? Beyond Devcon and to 2017? + + + +Edit: Thank you to everyone who responded and offered their input and advice. I like seeing all the different strategies people are using, and it was very helpful for a novice-investor (1-year experience) like me to see how other people do things. + +Itā€™s been a while since Iā€™ve posted or checked in here. Iā€™ve been doing tinkering, reading, losing money, making money, but mainly just learning the ropes more. + +As Iā€™ve gotten more into options Iā€™ve come to tinkered with Condors, Butterflies (less successful), straddles, and strangles. I tried to start with the wheel, but usually chickened out too much to take assignment at first. As Iā€™ve gone further, it seems like the Wheel is pretty much just a covered strangle over a longer time frame. +I could be way off on this, but it just seems youā€™re doing the same thing - selling a put and a call - with the difference being not buying the shares before selling the the put. Is this an appropriate comparison? +Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum. +What is your advice for theta plays for a smallish account like this. Any preferred approaches you have? How much would you allocate to each play, how many plays at any given point? +Account size = $5,000 + + HGEN $ (28.00) Bad order entry + CLDR $ 71.00 Wheel + PRTY $ 60.00 Wheel + F $ 58.00 Wheel + T $ 35.00 Wheel + GE $ 34.00 Wheel + YCBD $ 10.00 Wheel + AAPL $ 8.00 Put Credit Spread + LB $ 7.00 Put Credit Spread + + CLDR $ (145.00) Unrealized loss [100 Shares] + F $ (105.00) Unrealized loss [LEAPS] + PRTY $ (81.00) Unrealized loss [100 Shares] + T $ (18.00) Unrealized loss [100 Shares] + +That is a gain of $255 from Premium (5.1% of my account) + +and a potential loss of $349 from the currently held stocks/LEAPS + +Of course I will only sell the stock for my original purchase price or higher, so eventually those 'losses' will move back toward $0 (all the while I will be collecting more premium) + +&nbsp; + +Over the last month SPY was +3.9% + +So my Premium gained beat holding SPY, but I am going to have to wait to recuperate those unrealized losses. +So my Mum made a savings account for me when I was a kid but never actually put anything in there I started making money and she said she will take couple hundred pounds a month from me and start putting it in my savings account she had for me. She has started to say that she wants to use that money to buy a house under my name but I am not ready for this can I move that money with out having to get her consent? I am 19. +Iā€™d like to share a perspective. The entire crypto market cap is 1.8 trillion . The entire market cap of just Apple stock alone is 2.5 trillion. Think about that. 1 public company is bigger than all of crypto currency combined. Now when you factor in the entire stock market and bank economy , you realize how small crypto currently is. We are still very early. Itā€™s less than 1% of total currency and markets. Thatā€™s still 100x opportunity to grow from an overall perspective. Weā€™re only in the IBM days of where crypto currency can be at when you think of how the computer and internet exploded. So no, itā€™s not too late. Many projects arenā€™t guaranteed, in fact none of it is. But if you believe in the technology then you have a chance to invest now. Just like people thinking oh I should have invested in Apple or Amazon, itā€™s so obvious after the fact. Guess what? Nothing in life is guaranteed. Iā€™m here to take a chance. What are your thoughts? +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/consumer-debt-hits-new-record-of-14point3-trillion.html + +Household debt rose to $14.3 trillion through the first three months of 2020. + +Thatā€™s $1.6 trillion higher than the record set in the middle of the financial crisis. + +Credit card debt actually fell during the period, helping to offset rises in education and auto borrowing. +**UPDATE** + +Hi everyone! Last time I spoke about WindSwap we were at $0.18 and just a day later we hit our new ATH at $0.93. We just had the correction that always follows after a major price spike, and the new price is floored at $0.50. Since the last time we spoke the following has been done: + +* UI Improvements such as audio settings, slippage slider adjustments +* The DEX has moved to Amazon Web Services +* Complete rebuild of the API that will be used for auto slippage, number updates for the site and much more. + +This has all been done in the **last 2 days** + +Marketcap is still **10M** and we are on a price floor, do I even need to say more? + +**What is Windswap ($WINDY)?** + +$WINDY takes full advantage of BSC cross-chain features in order to power trading between multiple currencies. The token will be used in functionalities that are soon coming to their live DEX platform which has been released a few days ago. + +https://app.windswap.finance/ + +**Deflation?** + +*Yes, but not forever.* + +WindSwap charges a small levy for every transaction. For every 2.5M volume traded there will be a rebase. This rebase will burn 75% of the tokens that were taxed, and the remaining 25% of the tokens will go to the holders. There will be a total of 192 of these cycles which will cause the supply to drop to 8.8M tokens. Everyday $WINDY gets more exposure and therefore more trading volume, which means every next cycle will be completed faster than the previous one. + +**Why should I invest?** + +I did some research about DEX tokens, and you can basically divide them into two categories. Those who do deliver, and those who don't. So far the WindSwap team has delivered on every promise they made. Therefore I believe that the market cap is absurdly undervalued: Literally 10M for a working DEX market cap. To sum it up: + +* Low Market Cap - Currently just $10M +* Rug Proof - 80% of Tokens are being used for liquidity on Pancake Swap (99% Liquidity Locked on Unicrypt) +* High Organic Growth +* Holders are rapidly growing +* Early investords get rewarded until all cycles are completed (somewhere May). +* A functional product with very promising things to come. + +**Why is this platform different from all the others?** + +The Windswap team has shown us some things they wanted to implement, they are very active in the telegram group. Here is a list of things they are working on as we speak: + +* Slippage slider (**Already in**) +* Cross-chain swapping +* UI Improvements +* Charting tools +* Automatic Slippage +* Limit Orders +* Due Diligence / Rug Checker + +**Conclusion:** + +A new competitor on the DEX market with very promising features, with a token that rewards early adopters through the aggressive early on cycled burn pattern. By the time the burn cycles are completed more than half of the features should be implemented (May). They are not aiming for a quick buck, they are aiming for a good product that will be active in the market for years to come. + +**Links** + +Contract: 0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2 + +Bscscan: [https://bscscan.com/token/0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2](https://bscscan.com/token/0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2) + +WindSwap: [https://app.windswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2](https://app.windswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2) + +Dexguru: [https://dex.guru/token/0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2](https://dex.guru/token/0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2) + +Poocoin: [https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xd1587ee50e0333f0c4adcf261379a61b1486c5d2) + +Liquidity Locked: [https://unicrypt.network/amm/pancake/pair/0xb6EC86562E0cd125b4a1586036b6f13D47Fd09B6](https://unicrypt.network/amm/pancake/pair/0xb6EC86562E0cd125b4a1586036b6f13D47Fd09B6) + +Discord: [https://discord.gg/8guFEsrJ](https://discord.gg/8guFEsrJ) + +Litepaper: [https://windswap.finance/whitepaper/litepaper.pdf](https://windswap.finance/whitepaper/litepaper.pdf) + +Telegram: [https://t.me/windswapmembers](https://t.me/windswapmembers) + +Site: [https://windswap.finance/](https://windswap.finance/) + +DEX: [https://app.windswap.finance/](https://app.windswap.finance/) +Currently we both own our own houses with mortgages. We plan on moving in together and getting our very own home - so both selling. + +To simplify the chain and the stress as much as possible our plan is that I sell my home sans chain (on my end) and move into hers. At this point we would look to buy somewhere new together. + +My question is what is fair in the meantime. + +My thoughts are that what I currently pay towards my mortgage would go into savings, and we would simply split all bills leaving her to pay her own mortgage. My reason being that my home is also an investment and I am stopping investing in that home and so I donā€™t want to cease that completely and instead contribute to her investment instead. + +She doesnā€™t see it that way but Iā€™m struggling to see the alternative and wonder if thinking along the wrong lines and would like some advice. + +If it helps, we earn a very similar amount and our mortgages are also quite similar, albeit both slightly in my favour currently. + +Any advice is certainly appreciated! +APES. So my post last night in u/CuriousCatNYC777's post was taken down by automod because I edited it and that took it over the character limit. Lol smooth brain. My first comment that blows up and that happens. Original post: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nneg7p/european_financial_news_is_reporting_that_hedge/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nneg7p/european_financial_news_is_reporting_that_hedge/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb) I have messaged the mods to ask it be brought back, but in the meantime putting it out there for those that want to see it. + + +Ok this has got my mind going in a million directions. Obviously this has connections with The Everything Short - the idea that Citadel found an infinite money glitch that involves shorting the entire US Treasury Bond market and completely screwing over the repo market in the process. + +It always made sense to me that the Fed would want to stop Citadel, to cut them out of the system like a cancer before they mess things up real good. But it always seemed too good to be true. We don't want to fall into the trap of assuming that everything relates to GME. Why would the Fed give two deuces about us? + +And then this journalist - from another country, of course nobody in America would pick up on this - ties the two together perfectly. And if you have any doubts, take a look at [this](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/how-larry-fink-s-blackrock-is-helping-the-fed-with-bond-buying). Guess who has a history of helping the Fed out with this kind of thing? So much so that some people refer to them as the fourth branch of the government? Oh that's right. BLACKROCK. + +BOOM folks, the final piece clicks into place. Bring your cameras because we're not even stopping on the moon, we're going straight for Alpha Centauri. + +Just to recap in case I didn't make it clear enough last night in my excitement, BlackRock - yes, BLACKROCK, the largest institutional holder of GME by a massive margin, who has a history of backing Daddy Ryan Cohen, and who is the #1 candidate to be the mythical GME Long Whale that is bleeding Citadel dry - ALSO has a history of helping the Fed buy bonds (which Citadel has shorted into oblivion - see u/atobitt's The Everything Short) and disposing of toxic assets in the wake of a financial crisis (see the articke I posted, here's the url: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/how-larry-fink-s-blackrock-is-helping-the-fed-with-bond-buying). + +This article OP posted confirms it, the Fed has enlisted the help of certain banks and financial institutions to avert or mitigate the effects of an incoming financial crisis. I would bet an entire GME share at peak MOASS price that BlackRock is helping the Fed accomplish this by deleting Citadel out of existence, before they can screw over the US Treasury bond and repo markets any more. And how are they going to do that? GME go šŸš€šŸš€šŸš€. + +Strap in lads and lassies, it isn't just us vs. Citadel. It's us, BlackRock and the Fed vs Citadel. The government isn't going to step in and stop the MOASS from happening - THEY WANT IT TO HAPPEN. Now, this means they can also manipulate the price so that it doesn't happen until they are good and ready. We have seen this with all the rules passed recently. But there is going to be fireworks. This is like Megalodon vs. Kraken of the financial world. And we are all little fishes in the sea (what kind of fish most resembles an ape?). We will need to have patience, it might not happen exactly when we think (personally I am still jacqued for the next 6-7 weeks). But we are going to have the feast of a lifetime when it all shakes out. + +Not financial advice, I literally can't distinguish my behind from a coconut, fyi. Oh look, a banana! + +Edit: APES. Thank you so much for the upvotes and the awards!!! You all are the reason this journey is so much fun ā¤ +He is blaming social media for the whole financial crisis. Jesus Christ, he wants jail sentences for for people on social media who in his mind are destroying the financial system. He making a bill that would attack us apes. Where is all this hate towards hedge funds who gamble retirement funds? Where is all this anger towards HF that destroy small companies to kill competition to Amazon? Where is all the blame for the HF creating counterfeit stocks? + +David Scott is a piece of shit. + +They all dance around the problem that caused apes to get angry and then blame apes for their own failures. + +Edit: Thank you for the awards apes! I am happy to see others are also seeing David Scott as the piece of shit he is. + +Edit 2: Thanks again for the awards apes!!! I am now trying to spread the gratitude and appreciation by awarding others! ā¤ā¤ + Consensys, the company that owns MetaMask, just updated its Privacy Policy and fromw now on when you use Infura as your default RPC provider in MetaMask, Infura **will collect your IP address** and your Ethereum wallet address when you send a transaction. + +https://preview.redd.it/iatycyfj0v1a1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ebfd3259625126728be5fe9621071ceb87b1110 + +**Options:** + +**Sataying with Metamask:** + +\-If you want to continue using Metamask, you can change your RPC provider. Alchemy is a good option, and you can find a tutorial [here](https://docs.alchemy.com/docs/how-to-add-alchemy-rpc-endpoints-to-metamask). Another option is to change your RPC to "[http://localhost:8545](http://localhost:8545)" + +**Ditching Metamask:** + +Ther's always the option to switch wallets. You can try other popular wallets like TrustWallet or [rainbow.me](https://rainbow.me) There are other popular options like Rabby, or Coinbase Wallet, but I can't vouch for them as I haven't tried them. + +When using DeFi no one should be tracked. Stay safe frens +I wasn't paying attention to tax law, but it seems that a married couple can make like 100k (way more than I make with my wife), claim a 24k standard tax deduction to get down to 80k taxable income, and pay 0% tax on long term capital gains? + +There are a few long term positions that have done well for me. I haven't been taking profits on just yet because I figured it would just tax away 15% of gains. But now it seems I can sell quite a bit and reallocate if I wish. I have to admit this is a big deal for giving me more flexibility and choices. + +Does anyone else have any tax tips that a fellow like me should know about? +I'm 15 and I started investing during the beginning of the pandemic, and I've bought shares of companies that give out dividends, but I've never really paid attention to it. I'm wondering if it would be beneficial to me in the future if I start focusing on stocks or ETFs that pay high dividends. I always thought that I would be doing options or focusing on growth stocks but I'm wondering if a more feasible route would be starting dividend investing early, so it would help in the future. +Besides technical solutions like DCA what are some of your emotional strategies or mindsets that keep you positive/calm in this kind of market condition. + +Although I am still in my early 20s, has been investing for long-term regularly, and history has shown time and time again that the market is self-cleansing and always recover. The general negativities from all the overwhelming what-bleeds-leads article and headlines are ever so demotivating. + +Personally, I just finished JL Collinsā€™ The Simple Path to Wealth and almost half the book really put emphasis on the importance of understanding and accepting market pull backs as part of the process. + +Interested to see what are some of your strategies. +Suggestions what information to look up exactly. Should I look at dividend yield? Iā€™m not sure where to start + +Edit: someone stated videos, but sometimes videos are dated, Iā€™m looking for what people are doing days/hours ago. +Hello guys. I want to start divident investing but I am on the wrong side of the pond for the American stocks. I reviewed how taxation would work on this and with the already high income tax my country has I would need a 10 million plus account to get enough dividents to live off. Since I am 32 that chance seems slim unless my carreer REALLY pops haha. + +So to my fellow Europeans. What Divident stocks here are a proper way to go. I prefer ETF's but somehow I find European style ETF's very confusing. I am nog searching for high yields like XYLT but more low but stable for long term investing. + +Also I avoid weapons and tabaco companier. Which does not help in European divident stocks since most seem rather unethical XD. + +Much appreciated. +My portfolio right now is 70% VOO 20% SCHD, then 10% in individual stocks. Should I continue with this allocation and if so, when should I start to move more into dividend stocks / SCHD ? +Hello, + +I'm WFH for the foreseeable, have a lot of energy and free time from 4pm. + +Does anyone here have a second form of income from food delivery? + +My questions are, + +What are the PAYE tax implications? I know you'll be self employed but can your current employer find out? + +Is it worth setting up a ltd and having deliveroo pay me into that company? +Iā€™m not a landlord but I think people need to realise that not all landlords are wealthy evil tyrants. + +My elderly parents have a rental property as their sole income. So if people stop paying rent they will have no income. + +No income doesnā€™t just mean no mortgage payments, it also means they canā€™t pay council rates, strata /body corporate fees, insurance, the extra water charges that tenants donā€™t have to pay, required repairs or maintenance etc. Plus they use this income for their own expenses like food and medical. + +Unemployed can get rental assistance from Centrelink, landlords and home owners/mortgage holders canā€™t get anything like that. + +Itā€™s not black and white. So people canā€™t just simplify it by wanting the govt to stop rent = no mortgage payments. + +And those saying ā€˜just sell the investmentā€™. It would take ages to get the sale money. And the new landlord will still have the same expenses. + +Talk to your landlord to try and come to an arrangement rather than just stopping paying rent. +There are around 800 publicly listed biotech companies, double the number from just a few years ago. The Biotech industry has been hit particularly hard by the broad market decline. The SPDR S&P Biotech Index is down over 50% from it's February 2021 peak. The FDA has been rejecting a record amount of companies. A few years ago, 60% of clinical trials were positive. That number has dropped to less than 20% as of late, signaling the ease of funding for companies whose science was too early-stage. The explosion of publicly listed biotech companies recently seems to be a signal of mania, but mania produces overreactions, and overreactions present opportunities. Just over 20% of companies listed on the Nasdaq Biotech Index are currently trading for below cash. + +The space should be approached with extreme caution. While many companies are trading at negative enterprise values, much of those that are, only have 2 years of cash left. Rising rates could hasten the rate of cash burn, and refinancing or issuing new debt may be very difficult or impossible. If bottom-fishing's your thing, here are the tickers from the NBI trading below their cash holdings. (Data pulled from Yahoo Finance, so take it with a grain of salt) + +1. 89bio: **ETNB** +2. Achilles Therapeutics ADR: **ACHL** +3. Acumen Pharma CMN: **ABOS** +4. Adaptimmune Therapeutics: **ADAP** +5. Adverum Biotechnologies: **ADVM** +6. Akouos Inc.: **AKUS** +7. Alector, Inc.: **ALEC** +8. Aligos Therapeutics: **ALGS** +9. Allakos, Inc.: **ALLK** +10. Annexon, Inc.: **ANNX** +11. Applied Therapeutics: **APLT** +12. Atea Pharma: **AVIR** +13. Autolus Therapeutics: **AUTL** +14. Avrobio, Inc.: **AVRO** +15. BioAtla: **BCAB** +16. Biomea Fusion: **BMEA** +17. Black Diamond Therapeutics: **BDTX** +18. Bolt Therapeutics: **BOLT** +19. Cabaletta Bio: **CABA** +20. Centessa Pharmaceuticals: **CNTA** +21. Connect Biopharma Holdings: **CNTB** +22. Cortexyme, Inc.: **CRTX** +23. Corvus Pharmaceuticals: **CRVS** +24. Curis, Inc.: **CRIS** +25. Cyteir Therapeutics: **CYT** +26. CytomX Therpaeutics: **CTMX** +27. Decibel Therapeutics: **DBTX** +28. Dyne Therapeutics: **DYN** +29. Forma Therapeutics: **FMTX** +30. Frequency Therapeutics: **FREQ** +31. Galapagos NV: **GLPG (-1.37B)** +32. Gracell Biotechnologies: **GRCL** +33. Graphite Bio: **GRPH** +34. Gritstone Bio: **GRTS** +35. Harpoon Therapeutics: **HARP** +36. Homology Medicines: **FIXX** +37. Ikena Oncology: **IKNA** +38. Immuneering Corporation: **IMRX** +39. Immunovant: **IMVT** +40. Infinity Pharmaceuticals: **INFI** +41. Iteos Therapeutics: **ITOS** +42. Kodiak Sciences: **KOD** +43. Kronos Bio: **KRON** +44. Landos Biopharma: **LABP** +45. Larimar Therapeutics: **LRMR** +46. Leap Therapeutics: **LPTX** +47. Magenta Therapeutics: **MGTA** +48. Mereo Biopharma Group: **MREO** +49. Molecular Templates: **MTEM** +50. Mustang Bio: **MBIO** +51. Neoleukin Therapeutics: **NLTX** +52. Nextcure Inc.: **NXTC** +53. NRX Pharmaceuticals: **NRXP** +54. Olema Pharmaceuticals: **OLMA** +55. Omega Therapeutics: **OMGA** +56. Oncorus, Inc.: **ONCR** +57. Oric Pharmaceuticals: **ORIC** +58. Ovid Therapeutics: **OVID** +59. Passage Bio: **PASG** +60. Personalis, Inc.: **PSNL** +61. Poseida Therapeutics: **PSTX** +62. Precision Biosciences: **DTIL** +63. Prelude Therapeutics: **PRLD** +64. Rain Therapeutics: **RAIN** +65. Rhythm Pharmaceuticals: **RYTM** +66. Sensei Bio: **SNSE** +67. Sera Prognostics: **SERA** +68. Sesen Bio: **SESN** +69. Shattuck Labs: **STTK** +70. Silverback Therapeutics: **SBTX** +71. Singular Genomics Systems: **OMIC** +72. Solid Biosciences: **SLDB** +73. Spero Therapeutics: **SPRO** +74. Syros Pharmaceuticals: **SYRS** +75. TCR2 Therapeutics: **TCRR** +76. Terns Pharmaceuticals: **TERN** +77. Tonix Pharmaceuticals: **TNXP** +78. Viracta Therapeutics: **VIRX** +79. Wave Life Sciences: **WVE** +80. Werewolf Therapeutics: **HOWL** + +Many of these names have fallen over 70% from their 52-week highs. I also wonder if well-capitalized large players in the pharmaceutical space could be value plays, since these companies will most likely be the ones capitalizing on purchasing talent, Intellectual Property, or outright entire companies. Big Pharma has the capital to purchase much of the entire emerging pharma sector, and at potentially large discounts. +VERY LONG story short: while living in Texas, I received an job offer from a company in NYC and signed a lease in NYC days before the city shut down due to the... you know.... + + +Anyway, fast forward a few months of paying two leasesā€”one for an apartment I have never even set foot inā€”I was FINALLY able to make the move and call this place my new home. + + + +This morning I woke up to a $300 utility bill for June at this new apartment... this new apartment that I just set foot in 7 days ago... + + +I called the utility management office and they basically told me that it was an accurate meter read, and thereā€™s nothing I can do. + + + +For some additional context: I have been paying the ā€œforecast electric estimateā€ each month with my rent for this place, which usually landed around $50/month. + + +Now, boom, $300 out of no where. + + +Any insight would be great! Thank you!! + + + + +**EDIT**: Did NOT expect to come back after a day of work to see 300 comments hahah! Looks like *quite* a lot of people have gone through this. THANK YOU FOR ALL THE AWESOME ADVICE! I love this sub +Decided to make a real post instead of on the goals thread since this was our main big goal. I don't post often so forgive me if I'm doing it wrong. + +We finally hit our main base FI goal of $800k last week! Shortly before my 27th bday, amazingly as projected in a spreadsheet I created 4.5 years ago when I got out of college. It was the slow and steady way of DINC high-tech working and extreme saving straight out of college, with no college loans - no special inheritance, jackpots, or giant IPO. I idolized the FIRElords, MMM, JLCollins, GoCurryCracker, Zuko, etc. and wanted to stick with the goal and be as strong as them. While we reached the goal, a lot of of self-sacrifice, deprivation, and mental sanity was involved to follow their footsteps. I wanted to share our honest journey for anyone who might get something out of it. + +--- + +Long background story (skip to the end if you're bored): + +When I was first asked what job I wanted to have when I grew up, I honestly wanted to say "nothing". I dreaded becoming a full-time office cog like my dad. He provided for us 3 kids and my mom and would be completely exhausted and grumpy at the end of the day. All I knew was I didn't want to be like that. + +We were upper middle class but my family was always cheap and hoarded everything that might possibly come in handy one time years down the line. Grandparents immigrated broke and lived cheaply, so they passed down those values. I didn't learn anything from my parents about money except to save as much as you can and never go into debt. I wasn't really allowed to get anything except for my birthday and Christmas. My mom would guilt trip me for the money she had to spend when I had to buy new clothes. My parents extremely enforced education and wouldn't accept B's, which was incredibly stressful, but at least I was able to go to an above average college. + +When I had to make a choice in major, I figured if I had to do something and equally didn't know if I'd like anything, I might as well pick the one with the highest paying job. Though the field was extremely difficult for me and I struggled a lot to grasp basics and get through it. I was what people described as a "try-hard" and managed to fake it til I made it and got into reputable internships despite. + +Fast forward to my last year of college, I wanted to make sure I didn't mess up with my finances when I entered the working world and came across MMM in my research. My husband (which I had just become engaged to at the time) and I had enough high tech internships over summer breaks to know that this wasn't the life we wanted. Once we learned about FIRE, I shut myself in and binge-read, made calculations, and planned obsessively. I wanted to make sure this was real and felt like I had found salvation. I pitched to my husband and we were 100% on board with going full steam to FI and reaping the benefits of the overinflated compensation of our programming majors. + +I made an elaborate spreadsheet of our FIRE plans with multiple goals. $400k if we wanted to give up and live in Thailand, $600k to live in the middle of nowhere in the US or expat to Canada, $800k to live in the US. We just used the standard MMM goal as our base goal. Ideally, we'd have $130k more for 2 future kids' college savings. Excitedly told my parents about my new plans and revelations only to be shot down and told by my dad that it's impossible and not that easy. Excitedly told my friends and some became converts. + +Got out of college with $20k between each other, which we had saved from our internships during college. Didn't have a wedding and went to the courthouse, partially to save money, partially to save myself from my mom bridezilla-ing of my own wedding. We were lucky enough to have no student loans. My dad was able to save up college payments for me and my two siblings. My husband's grandfather had created 529s for each of his extended children. + +We shot for name-brand companies with the best benefits/salaries we could get and moved to an expensive high tech city. To avoid high rent, we borrowed my mother-in-law's RV that she hadn't used in a decade and lived in an RV park - trying to be like JL Collins, minus the beans and rice. Rent for the RV space was $850!! Ridiculous for a freaking parking space, but cheaper than any studio around, which would've been at least double that. Living in the RV had it's disadvantages, though. We hated emptying the blackwater, showers took a long time to heat up, bathroom was tiny, walking around shook the place, my husband loved shouting to internet people when playing games and drove me crazy since there's no sound barriers. It was actually kind of lonely too since we were so used to always having friends around in college. + +Other spending was $600 on food since we went Paleo, but we skimped on everything else. Utilities+internet were about $125. We spent about $2000 per month total, shooting for MMM's spending (though it hadn't occurred to me that his $2000 actually didn't include rent...). The budget felt extremely tight and stressful pennypinching was involved, which caused tension between us and our friends (I don't recommend this). Income was about $90k base salary for each of us. We maxed out our ROTHs via ROTH rollover and maxed our Traditional 401ks. + +We hated our jobs. Huge companies which gave young people nothing important to do. Though husband got laid off a couple months later due to company downturn, but he found a $120k job shortly after. I left my company a couple months after that and went to a $110k job in a specialization that seemed more interesting to me. Unfortunately, that gave me an hour commute in traffic so we had to move out of the RV park closer to my new job. We lived with housemates found on Craigslist and paid $1100 for a tiny room. To keep our budget low, we spent $300, in food and stuck to $2000 per month. We spent an extra $2000 on an international trip per year (trip cost reduced from credit card bonus travel hacking) + +The company I joined had an awful company culture and was dreadful. I got laid off luckily after only a few months due to company financial problems. I changed jobs to a $105k company, slight salary downgrade, but the work looked very interesting. + +We didn't make as many friends in the area as we could have and lost a lot of potential friends due to frugality and not wanting to join in on regular bar hopping, eating out, happy hours, and expensive yuppy experiences. So, we convinced our friends from college to move up here, which are more of the hang-out-at-home, boardgame-night types. We moved to a $3000 3bd2ba house with them and paid $1200. Our total spending increased to $2400 at this point. + +More job changes happen - my husband's manager is awful so he switches to a $130k job, but it's 2hrs commute each way. I stay in my company increasing pay $3k each year. I love it for 2 years and then get a terrible boss and quit, but get a desperate counter offer to not leave for a salary increase to $120k and a different boss. My husband's new company is throwing money at him and promotes him to a senior role, despite only being 24, with a $138k salary and thousands in bonuses every few months. The commute is killing him though so we move close to his work with his coworker+spouse into an even more expensive city. Rent is now $2200 for one bedroom in a 2bd2ba tiny apt! A parking space is $280! But our housemates offer to cover it in exchange for the master bedroom. We've definitely gotten more loose with our spending and lifestyle inflated as we approached our number. We've now been spending $4000+ per month, being more relaxed about taking spontaneous trips with friends, even if it involves a short trip with flights or a place with expensive lodging. Groceries are sometimes $800 a month since I've started trying to remedy some food-related health issues, but it involves experimentation. + +I'm not sure what we'll do now. I'm very tempted to just quit now since my job is boring at the moment and the only reason I'm still staying is out of guilt that I told them I'd stay for a year after I took their gracious counter offer. I still have half a year to go and that feels like a very long time to bare for a silly reason. I know I should retire TO something, but I'm kind of too exhausted to search for what I actually might like spending my time doing, and need a good long vacation first. My husband may quit in June after some more bonuses. We may go do some long travelling, experience some odd jobs we've always wanted to do, and search for more community-oriented town to establish ourselves into. + +--- + +Lessons Learned: + +While the financial journey was fairly in the bag with high paying jobs and low expenses for as long as we worked, the primary difficulty for us over the years was mental endurance. We had our fair share of mental breakdowns and struggles dealing with a life of looking into the future and not living in the moment. When MillenialRevolution talked about being stressed/anxious/depressed with health issues from their jobs to the point of meds, I was hoping to not get to that point, but we ended up there anyway. We regularly felt trapped in our jobs as if we were sentenced to jail-time for a few years before we could experience freedom and actually live, which was a very unhealthy mindset. We didn't want to do these jobs but they were our golden handcuffs and best shot at fast FI. In hindsight, we likely could have not sacrificed as much in terms of leisurely frills and luxury and would have still reached FI a few months later. + +I'm not sure how much it was worth it to bare through so much unhappiness in unfulfilling jobs to FIRE asap. While I keep randomly hearing stories lately of 26yr olds dying suddenly and unexpectedly, it makes me worry that if I died now, I would have worked so hard at denying myself and never experience the fruits of our labor. Perhaps when I actually RE, I'll be able to answer whether it was worth it. Hope my story shows some potential dark sides to you aspiring young FIRE followers like me so that you can make your own educated decision on how to proceed. + +--- + +Edit: Since the topic of our frequent job changes seems to be such a hot topic, here's more clarification, so I don't have to respond to every shitty comment about it: +I glazed over discussion of my job changes for brevity. The average person between age 20-30 changes jobs every 2 years, and we were both approximately on that metric when we had the choice. Our shortest stints were due to company layoffs since they usually just axe the new people. +- My first job change was a strategic career decision to change to a specialization I was interested in. +- The second was a company layoff, which was out of my control. I was relieved because who wouldn't be glad to leave a manager who yells at everyone and blames people on a regular basis? +- The third leave was due to a manager handed to me later in that job, which I could not have predicted. He also yelled every day, micromanaged heavily, and blamed people. It was clearly not just me since I witnessed the effects taking a toll on my co-workers as well. I stuck it out for as long as I could because I actually did enjoy the work and did want to stay. I found myself crying every day from the verbal abuse, but stayed and tried to switch managers. Movement wasn't happening fast enough and I withstood 5 months of that treatment before it took such a heavy toll on me that I had to quit. My friends told me I should've left way before that. Giving my notice actually finally convinced the company to give me a different manager so I stayed and am there now. +My husband's story is similar. He got laid off by one, left the second due to a manager who yelled at everyone to the point of red faced screaming, and is still at the third. +I think switching from toxic work environments that negatively impact your mental health is a perfectly valid decision, so take it as you will. +Recently graduated and need to buy a car for my new job. Should I buy a new car that could take the heavy driving or buy a used one? The company does the IRS rate for gas reimbursement (I'll be a field engineer). + +I have $4,000 in savings and will be making around $50k a year with $500 going to parents and car insurance. Trying to save $1,000 a month for graduate school (down the road), and putting $400 towards loans. I think I should buy something new, I don't want to have to pay out of pocket for gas, wear, and tear due to the matching not being enough money. + +Edit: Thanks for the advice everyone. For the record it's the Long Island area so traffic and rush hour is expected. +Quick Take + +* In September, the Solana blockchain was swamped by transactions and ended up going offline for 17 hours. +* Solana Labs CEO Anatoly Yakovenko says that this is only a problem for those measuring in milliseconds. + +When asked what are the chances the network goes down again, Yakovenko replied, ā€œI donā€™t know. It doesnā€™t really matter, though.ā€ + +His argument went as follows: as long as thereā€™s at least one copy of the ledger, the funds are still safe and the transactions will eventually get processed. If you donā€™t care how long a transaction takes to go through, ā€œthen how much do you care that there's a 72 hour block?ā€Ā  + +Yakovenko likened the downtime to a particularly long wait between blocks. He claimed that Solana didnā€™t really go offline, there just wasnā€™t a confirmed block for that time period. ā€œSo that technically does look like a 17-hour block if you look at the history.ā€ + +Bitcoin, Ethereum and Cardano have entered the chat for a laugh... C'mon bois, this is the biggest centralized shitshow of the century and it seems that going offline might happen again or frequently! + +Source: [https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/124887/solana-labs-ceo-it-doesnt-really-matter-if-the-network-goes-down-again](https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/124887/solana-labs-ceo-it-doesnt-really-matter-if-the-network-goes-down-again) + +EDIT: Thank you mods for changing the flair to "con arguments", how nice of you... The journalists from theblockcrypto must be the con artists for typing the words said during the interview... By the way the title of this post is actually the title of the source article! I guess someone is mad cause we call Solana out for being the garbage it truly is, centralized shitshow... +Lately on this sub I have been seeing the ridiculous notion that dividends are a "waste" and "horrible" for taxes, which simply isn't true. + +Let's start with taxes. + +2018 Capital gains taxes are as follows: +Long-Term rates: +0% for up to 38,600 for single, 77,200 for married filing jointly +15% for 38,600-425,800 single, 77,200-479,000 +20% over 425,800 single and 479,000 married +Short term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income rates, the tax bracket you fall under for your yearly income. I won't list each income range, but rates are 10-12-22-24-32-35-37%. + +The key difference to keep in mind is what falls under long term rates and short-term rates as well. + +Long Term: qualified dividends, dividends from stocks held longer than one year. Holding a stock for greater than one year, then selling. Dividends from stock index funds and ETFs as well. +Short Term: interest income, bond interest, REIT dividends, Peer-to-Peer, CDs, high-yield savings, selling stocks/mutual funds/ETFs shorter than a year. + +Majority of us have access to some type of 401K/403b/457 and a Roth IRA. That would give you 18,500 and 5,500 a year for tax-advantaged growth. Double that if you are married and max it out. After that point, you will have to put money in taxable accounts. + +Keep in mind, there are risks and downsides with strictly putting ALL your money in tax-advantaged accounts that nobody seems to discuss. The tax code can change in 30 years, your tax rate is concentrated at one point of your life rather than a smooth average, less flexibility with your money, high fees and poor options offer by your job's 401k, you may never get to enjoy it (death or extreme illness). + +Having a taxable account with TAX-EFFICIENT investments is not a waste. Qualified dividends, individual stocks, and Municipal tax-free bonds are all great taxable investments. A rate of 15% is very fair and low compared to what people get paid as income to use their actual bodies and time. No FICA taxes either. Once you pay taxes, it's your money, and do not have to have the government telling you what to do. For every 1,000 you earn in dividends, you'd pay 150 dollars. Someone working as a laborer making 60,000 a year could pay as high as 15% in federal taxes. + +Dividends have accounted for as low as 25% to as high as 60% of the TOTAL RETURN of the S&P 500, depending on which time frame you select to use. To all the religious "time in the market, beats timing the market" followers, this is the large reason why it matters, the compound effect of reinvesting dividends, not the price change of the index. + +A dividend is real money given back to the owners, you the shareholders, as you see fit. It's not a waste. If you bought a pizza business, you would want to enjoy some of profits rather than continuing to invent different kind of pizza dough. If you rented a home, you'd want to enjoy some of that monthly rent, not keep painting and upgrading the rental. So why wouldn't you want the same from companies you own? + +Not every company is Amazon, Facebook, and Netflix, where you have 50% year after year change in price. Many companies cap out on their rapid growth and mainly have to focus on a dividend growth strategy. The FANG stocks will at some point as well, only so many ways to reinvest their capital. Apple had so much cash and no other ways to rapidly grow, they had to give a dividend and buyback shares rather than keep hoarding from shareholders. + +91% of Warren Buffets stocks are dividend paying stocks. His top holdings are all dividend paying stocks as well. + +TL;DR Taxes and dividends are not bad if you use a buy and hold strategy. +18 living at home. Iā€™ve got a decent amount of cash that Iā€™ve saved. I found what seems like a good deal on a Fourplex in a neighboring state that Iā€™d finance with an fha loan. Running the numbers Iā€™ll still be cash flow positive with 3 units rented. I still want to live at home to be able to maximize my savings rate. As long as 1 unit is vacant and my mail is being sent there is it okay? The biggest concern is I donā€™t want to break any laws on my first investment property. +Everyone I talk to seems to think their neighborhood is getting gentrified or getting developed and somehow their properties will be worth tons in the next few years. What are some things to look for when looking into a market? +Have you noticed that despite the overall situation crypto market some DeFi projects continue to gain traction. + + +In the last two years, we saw the total TVL jump from $10Bn in January 2022 to an ATH of over $110Bn in November 2021. Today the total value locked in DeFi sits at $74.5Bn according to Defipulse index. + + +It is clear to me this is a one-way road! Adoption will keep increasing and we can already notice that a few "regional" DeFi projects are emerging such as Tropykus and Pods Finance which are aiming to South American crypto investors. + + +I just attended to Ethereum Rio conference and there I had the chance to know a few interesting projects developing here in Brazil and South America and the one I liked most was Tropykus. The CEO Mauricio Tovar gave an emotional speech about how Tropykus is impacting communities in the region. I honestly hope they achieve what they want as it's not common to see projects with both a social and environmental touch, and as a Brazilian, I reckon we need that. + + +And the truth is - every DeFi degen has a favorite project - Aave, Compound, Anchor, Yearn, and many many others. I'm personally staking UST on Anchor and staking on Dafi Protocol and Binance earn (ok, ok, I know! Binance!? Yeah... the APY isn't the best but I believe my funds are safu, right!?) + + +Decentralized Finance is also making the most of this situation and it is obvious as projects keep churning out announcements of integrations & partnerships with other crypto ecosystems - the future of crypto and DeFi will be completely and totally multichain and integrated, just like [Skylar](https://twitter.com/skylar_eth) from Eth Foundation said on his speech yesterday at ETH Rio. + + +&#x200B; + +[I know the picture I took doesn't illustrate what I said above. Posting it just to prove I was there - hehehehe.](https://preview.redd.it/j2d3hr5fzqn81.png?width=899&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bc3601be916c229ae1d5a6fc8176913ad19a989) + + +If you allow me I will use one my favorite DeFi project as an example. + + +DAFI protocol is making the best of the bear market by focusing mostly on building and developing while collaborating with crypto platforms. These include DeFi, GameFi, NFT, exchanges, etc. This is a significant move and it won't be a surprise to see major traction in terms of adoption. + +&#x200B; + +Out of the 30+ integrations and partnerships in the past couple of months, the ones that struck the chord for me are the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) network integration and the partnership with SolanaPrime. While the integration on BSC Network significantly reduced gas fees, the partnership with SolanaPrime introduces staking 2.0 to all DeFi, GameFi, and Meterverse projects launching on the Solana-based launchpad. + +&#x200B; + +The partnership with SolanaPrime makes DAFI more promising as its innovative technology of reinventing how every decentralized network is rewarded & will be exposed to a strong ecosystem that ultimately builds support for the platform and influences price. + +&#x200B; + +Notably, the sheer hard work and constant announcements of partnerships by the team is one more reason to bag DAFI and stake for some APY. For the likes of Brokoli Network and APY Finance, itā€™s #buidl time as more users start to delve into DeFi with staking and Yield farming. + + +Brokoli Networkā€™s green DEX, dApp, API & NFT are set to help reduce DeFiā€™s carbon footprint on the environment while Tropykus wants to expand the access of financial services to South American communities which usually would never have access to this kind of thing. + + +The future is amazing and just like Skylar said yesterday "we're still early". +[Here is a link to my S&P Returns Analysis that I keep referencing below](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/sp-returns.php) + +--- + +Each stock has a different mean daily price increase over its total trading interval, along with an average standard deviation. + +[For instance, the average TERM standard deviation of movements for AMD is 3.75%](http://lavancier.com/stock-data.php?ticker=AMD&interval=20000). + +[Though for KO, it is only 2.45% for it's TERM standard deviation.](http://lavancier.com/stock-data.php?ticker=KO&interval=20000) + +The average annual return for KO has been 14%, whereas for AMD it has been -3.73% since inception. + +So I did some simulations using normal distributions to try to lamely simulate mass market movements. It wasn't to be too accurate since I didn't program skewness or kurtosis. + +I programmed in the following in R: + +---- + + random <- rnorm(30000, 0.0004, 0.04) + random <- rnorm(30000, 0.0004, 0.02) + random <- rnorm(30000, 0.0004, 0.01) + random <- rnorm(30000, 0.0004, 0.005) + +---- + +The 0.0004 is the mean daily increase of the S&P over the past 21 years. The actual std. dev. of movements is 1.2% in that interval. + +I simulated the curves and then took the residuals, multiplied them out as daily increases/decreases, and got the following charts: + +1. [No standard deviation of movements](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/0_5/meanval/1.png) + +2. 0.5% standard deviation of movements + + a. [Simulation 1](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/0_5/1.png) + + b. [Simulation 2](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/0_5/2.png) + + c. [Simulation 3](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/0_5/3.png) + +3. 1% standard deviation of movements + + a. [Simulation 1](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/1/1.png) + + b. [Simulation 2](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/1/2.png) + + c. [Simulation 3](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/1/3.png) + +3. 2% standard deviation of movements + + a. [Simulation 1](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/2/1.png) + + b. [Simulation 2](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/2/2.png) + + c. [Simulation 3](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/2/3.png) + +3. 4% standard deviation of movements + + a. [Simulation 1](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/4/1.png) + + b. [Simulation 2](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/4/2.png) + + c. [Simulation 3](http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/4/3.png) + +---- + +As you can see, the amount of noise changes, but also does the outcome. Samples with larger standard deviations decreased significantly more over time than those with smaller standard deviations. + +At this point, my thought for why this exists is the following idea in math regarding multiplied returns: + +Stock A Movements: +0.005%, +0.005%, +0.005% = 1.01507% increase + +Stock B Movements: +0.0010%, +0.005%, +0.00% = 1.01505% increase + +Stock C Movements: +0.0015%, +0.005%, -0.005% = 1.01498% increase + +So even though the mean is the exact same for all sets of movements, the increased standard deviation in Stock C means that it will actually increase less over time than Stock A and B. + +--- + +This looks like a tiny difference, but this is a sample of three days. In my samples above, it was 30,000 days which would be 120 years of trading, however there would still be a noticeable difference in year end totals. + +--- + +[Here's the different outcomes over a 250-day trading span](http://i.imgur.com/D4WHKVP.jpg). This shows that the larger the std. dev., the lower the return even with the same average daily increase over the interval. + +---- + +**EDIT:** I have spent a bit simulating this over long intervals and found that there is essentially 100% certainty that this is correct. [Here's a chart and the figures of a 30,000 day trial](http://i.imgur.com/FbIOziK.jpg) + +Of course, the positive return on the last one is what I would just consider "noise". Distributions of random values aren't always going to give a perfect result because randomness doesn't result in perfection. The point is however that it is very, very close. This means that a low standard deviation such as 0.25%/day means it will essentially have no effect at all on the price over long periods of time. The largest changes are at 2% and 4%. + +**EDIT 2:** Here's the [travel path](http://i.imgur.com/60Bs3Fu.jpg) of the different lines. The beige is 4% SD, blue is 2%, red is 1%, and green is 0.5%. + +For some reason 0.25% didn't make it's way on the chart. Unsure of why. + +**EDIT 3:** I believe this concept is similar to beta-slippage. + +---- + +**TL;DR:** Stocks with higher a standard deviation of movements underperform (comparatively by risk) in the long term due to math. + +##**This is the perfect example:** + +The exact same stock price movements (simulated). The same days increase and decrease. The mean is the same as well. The only difference? The red line has a standard deviation of 1 and the blue has a standard deviation of 3. While at the end of the 10,000 simulated trading days the red line settles near where it started, the blue line has lost almost all its value. + +http://lavancier.com/marketanalysis/simulations_stdev/sd1vssd3.png + + +----- + +Since I have to go right now and I can't really discuss for a few hours, let me just clarify an important part of this: + +I am not saying that more volatile stocks underperform. Performance is based off the average daily increase in the end. What I am saying is that the disparity between mean daily movement (as taken by a simple sum and divide operation) and the daily log returns increases with increased standard deviation. The daily log returns will decrease with a higher standard deviation and same mean. This is perfectly shown in the last picture link that compares the same trend with a 1% and 3% standard deviation. + +Also no, this has not been tested with heavy skews, however it does hold true with for instance the S&P 500 which only has a very mild skew. It also holds true with AMD which has a more moderate albeit still not horribly significant skew. + +More research is to come. + +--- + +As someone has pointed out, previous research on the matter has been done before. Here's a relevant excerpt: + +http://www.capitalideasonline.com/images/effectsofvolatilitygrelinsjan28,06.jpg +Several exchanges seem to be sending funds back and forth as capital for reserves to show, that is, to show how much reserves they have once they share their wallet addresses to the public. See the other big threads here for details. + +Please make sure that your funds are off the exchanges. Even CZ from Binance is hinting that this is a clear sign of problems and he might very well know more than us: + +https://preview.redd.it/u6g462215oz91.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=40940a290ddf7748ba2dfb9fd958eacd12bf1060 + +This comes after CZ said that they previously had a policy not to comment on competitors publicly, but that CZ would change this behavior going forward in protection of the crypto space: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ioxamy4q5oz91.png?width=545&format=png&auto=webp&s=44ef26d7d72b750aed66de18ee0f7862fd3a8abb + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/mglocvcs5oz91.png?width=545&format=png&auto=webp&s=9022d8abff33e672fdd883a4dc5738f15664f24b + +How is this real life? If this would be a movie I would not believe the story. Every day there is more craziness. + I've been reading some articles online about the difference between index funds and ETFs and am still a bit confused. I understand that both are passively managed to track a published index. + +ETFs can be traded like a stock intraday whereas index funds are executed at market closing. But what's the meaning of trading intraday (ETFs) vs at market closing (index fund)? Is there any benefit of one over another? + +Thank you + I've been reading some articles online about the difference between index funds and ETFs and am still a bit confused. I understand that both are passively managed to track a published index. + +ETFs can be traded like a stock intraday whereas index funds are executed at market closing. But what's the meaning of trading intraday (ETFs) vs at market closing (index fund)? Is there any benefit of one over another? + +Thank you +Yeah, you heard it right, and you most likely know that already, but lemme give you some technical rationale of how this might happen. The analysis is build upon fractal techniques, so that the previous price action is used for making this forecast. Buckle up and eat a Crayon, fellow trader (the word is used as anagram you know for what) as it will help you stay nutrated for the rest of this reading, and it might even help you with the digestion (of the information in the post). + +This is not a financial advice and I am not and a professional advisor, I just enjoy to share my knowledge and educate brainless apes occasionally. + +"BuT whY dO I neEd your FARTCAL ANALizis?!1" + +Well, that's a good question. When I was a young ape living free in the Steppes of Kazakhstan... JK, leave poor Vlad alone for a moment. **The fractal** (from Latin *fractus*) means a steady scalable design of irregular shape emerging on any data. The trade fractal in the financial market is the pattern, formed by a sequence(es) of candles, which has peculiar identifiable characteristics and a tendency to reoccur across different scales and time-frames. Fractals are simple yet important, repetitive formations used by traders to identify and to confirm a trend. Apely speaking, fartcals allow us to forecast the future price action based on the previous similar trends on a given trading instrument. + +Now that the captain is gone, let's get to business. + +[GME fartcals wroom wroom](https://preview.redd.it/yge17n3k12n61.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=d533ec1fdbcf6443b2233142f87bb285f0c27786) + +I know that you all love Crayons with all of your hearts, so I will use rare turquoise and magenta ones in this analysis. Furthermore, I did my best to simplify the method of distinguishing the fractal sequences, using simple lines, and hopefully you should need no more than one brain wrinkle to understand it. +What you see on the chart (one candle represents 2 hours of price action) above is a perfect example of beautiful fractals. The chart starts from the 11th of January with the turquoise slightly downward tilted consolidation. Next you see a relatively soft magenta upward impulse (14-16 Jan), followed by another turquoise consolidation, this time slightly tilting up and lasting for about three days. Next is where the things really start to get interesting (22nd Jan), as the subsequent magenta upward impulse accelerates exponentially. This accelerection does not go quietly, erupting into a powerful gap (not as big as the one in your head, though). Finally, starting 27th of Jan we have a local endgame highlighted by a purple rectangle with the apex (pay attention to this peak, as it will be used for calculations later) on the 27th of January. 'What? Why purple rectangle?' you may ask. Easy. REKTangles are the Horsemen of the Endgame. +That was only the left part of the chart. Now let's be brief for a moment. There were six main components to the fractal base: turquoise consolidation, magenta uptrend, turquoise consolidation 2, magenta impulse, gap and purple rectangle. What you see on the right, is the original base for the fractal described above meets its bigger brother. Particularly, starting 22nd Feb a very similar chain of price actions manifests. And this is how we really utilize fractals: identify the fractal sequence from the previous data (on the left), and after that apply the pattern to similar market conditions (on the right). Many of the the things look really similar on both sides of the graph, don't they? Coincidence? I think not. + + +https://preview.redd.it/v5s6clts12n61.jpg?width=534&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f7e6dcacd9509becc15e1e38a254575986e49063 + +"Oh fArtcaLs good Butt WEN MOON?1!" + + +[Here you go boy](https://preview.redd.it/f0u97sfv12n61.jpg?width=461&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d64f1f93399d094112b49cf4170475e56ce84bc8) + + +Allrighty. I know that the energy from the Crayon you ate is running out, so lemme summarize the analysis for this intellectually limited individual with extraordinary small brain capacity that you are. What I need you to do now is what even a half brained chimpanzee is capable of. Count to six (yes, you may use your fingers). Twice. + +[Numbers and fractals simplified for dummies](https://preview.redd.it/mfnkdif022n61.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d2fd1b92e9a7bf6c2bbeb0fac0ed538ea35d96b) + +1 = flat line; +2 = small magenta hill; +3 = line as flat as your wife's girlfriend's tit; +4 = accelerection; +5 = your brain (aka Gap); +6 = Valhala REKTangle / GME go BBBBRRRRRRR + + +Good boy/girl, you've come this far. Now that your confirmation bias is reinforced, you may get some rest. Or eat another nutritious crayon my brain destitute ape friend, because we are DIVING DEEPER. + +Ok, it turned out that I needed to eat some Crayons myself, because I really got exhausted writing the post for five hours in a row. So I ate a pack this time, and I am full of GMEnergy. As is the chart below, so bullish, that we will definitely see some GMEnergy explosions in a short time to come. Now the complexity of analysis is going to increase a little bit, but the apes have to evolve at one point in history, so I really encourage you to use this opportunity. + + +[In-depth fractal forecast](https://preview.redd.it/888zsh3c22n61.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec2c553761a27dc98efa7dae3de918da0d4f600f) + +I hope that you got accustomed to the previous six steps for dummies explanation, and by this moment you should understand the basic principle of how the fractals play. What you see above is a little bit more advanced chart, through which I aim to explain how I came to the price predictions in the post title (finally!). Ok, 1 2 3 4 5 6 is understandable, where did A B come from? The first and most important notice, is that A-B fractals are built upon 1-2-3-4-5-6, and on the chart you can see that A measures 1-2-3-4 pattern, while B covers 5-6 steps of the sequence. A-B on the left (January run) is self explanatory, the fractals are measured as they are. A-B on the right (current price action formation) is where we need some math to get involved, particularly, when we are working with the new B movement prediction. And that is not as difficult as it may seem from a first glance. Again, the main fractal property, re-occurrence, will play on our side. Predicting the price movements, on a volatile market like this one, is one of the most ungrateful things to do, so don't go too harsh on what I am going share with you, apesters. My theory, is that it is possible to predict the amplitude of the upcoming move, using data from previous one. And here, we only need the coefficient from first A-B move. A simple ratio: dividing first B move (about $325 increase) by first A move ($131) gives us a coefficient of about 2,48. Let's apply this ratio to the currently forming fractal: that is multiplying the second A fractal completed height (about $330 based on my prediction, which is built later in this post), which will give the estimated B part of the second fractal height of about $818, landing us on the sweet $1200 dollar level through the next week. Boom, looks beautiful and promising! Fractals, baby! + + +I hope it has been an entertaining as well as mentally developing read for you so far, smoothie-brainie. But there is still one important part of the analysis left to be addressed. Particularly, it is the the sequence part number 4, where the price action stands currently. And yeah, you guessed it, almighty fractals are helping us here again. Below you will find two charts (both are 30 min charts), which are actually zoomed in the price actions of the fourth step of the two fractals analyzed above. I can't stop enjoying and appreciating fractals and below you should really see why. + + +[GME price action 22-27 January](https://preview.redd.it/heozo1gg22n61.png?width=1646&format=png&auto=webp&s=d637c1806d229ffad089dc6491357ce01b55207a) + +[GME price action 5-15 March](https://preview.redd.it/m1dydccm22n61.png?width=1646&format=png&auto=webp&s=9724902e12d23390a6f614fe026acd4f2c4abf3d) + +Because they look similar again! Now I will ask you to excuse me, I started to work on this analysis about ten hours ago, and I really need to get some sleep, as my brain is holding strong to the last wrinkle it has left, so this explanation will be brief. I forecasted the apex point of the current 4 using not so complicated method, and again taking inspiration from the previous price action and its underlying patterns. The magenta curly lines play as supports for both of the impulses. And these look amazingly similar in its slope and pace, but we should probably stop being surprised about that at this point. The second important fractal factor is this chainsaw in the middle of the patterns, corresponding to the severe corrections in these bull runs. Remember being in the market at those moments? Wooh, that was fun. And finally, take a look at this averaged line that looks like a string of a bow - not only it averages the price action, it also completes this bow shaped fractal pattern, allowing us to predict the potential high of the current price action ($380-ish). That's it folks, mic drop. + +TL;DR: Fractals is life fractals is love ā¤ļø as is GEEEMEEE +I am going to preface this by saying this is my professional interpretation of these changes. + +* **Proposed income tax changes:** The plan currently incorporates raising the top tax bracket to 39.6% from 37%, but that is not the only concerning portion of this change. For the first time in a very long time, there will be a "marriage penalty" on this tax bracket. What do I mean by that? Well, individuals earning $400k/yr annually will fall into this tax bracket, and in the past the married number would be close to double that much; however, under the new bill, a married household would only need to make $500k annually to get hit with this bracket, thus heavily penalizing married upper middle class families who earn $250k per spouse. Those individuals, if unmarried, would not be subject to this bracket, but because they are married, they will be penalized for having a spouse that is a high income earner. For those thinking about filing separately, the same $250k threshold still applies individually per person. If you have one disparately large earner, and one who falls under the threshold, you might still gain something, but whether it would be enough to offset the increase on the breadwinner would be debatable at this point. These same changes will also be implemented for small business LLCs, 1099 contractors, and all manner of W2 employees. This will probably impact FI timelines. + +* **Long Term Capital Gains on Dividends:** The proposed plan would increase LTCG tax on dividends to 25% from 20%. What this means essentially is that anyone planning on utilizing dividends as part of a retirement income strategy will need to accumulate enough money to take into consideration the additional 5% of lost income from taxable accounts. For many, this will likely set back your FI timeline. + +* **Caps on business deductions:** The proposed plan includes caps on the deductions businesses can claim from losses to only zero the income the business earned. So, even if your business made $250k in 2021, but lost $350k, you can no longer write off the entirety of your losses for the taxable year. You may carry the losses forward to the next year. Essentially this change prevents people from using passthrough entities to offset earned income from other sources than the business that accumulated the losses. + +* **Roth/Traditional IRA Changes:** The proposed plan looks to implement a cap of $10 mil max that you can hold across all Roth accounts you own. Furthermore, anyone holding more than $10 mil in Roth accounts **must liquidate 50% of the overage per year from the account until the total accumulated value is below $10 mil**. Additionally, **Roth conversions will no longer be allowed for single individuals earning $400k annually, or married households earning $450k annually.** Again, here we see a marriage penalty, where 2 individuals earning $225k/ea would be comfortably below the threshold required to be able to do Roth Conversions; however, because they are married, they are now penalized and this is closed off. Married filing separately has same provisions as above with individuals capped at $225k each to be able to convert to Roth. + +* **Estates, Trusts, and Ultra High Income:** There will be now be an *additional* 3% surcharge (on top of the existing 3.8%) for any estate or trust totaling $5 mil or more, *or* income earners who earn more than $5 mil in one fiscal year. This reduces the previous threshold of $11,700,000 to $5,000,000. There is a provision that allows for special exemption for qualified real estate designated as a farm business. **Grantor Trusts** will now be pulled into an individual's taxable estate and taxed in the included assets if the deceased individual was the owner of the trusts, so you can no longer use Grantor Trusts to pass assets and dodge inheritance/estate taxes. + +* **Transfer of Non-Business Assets (NBAs):** The proposed changes here would place limitations on using NBAs to trade for equity stakes in other businesses, and will now be taxed as if the individual trading the NBAs for equity were transacting money for the equity stake. There is a provision within this plan that allows a look back period for audits by the IRS. + +* **Total Retirement Asset Caps:** The proposed plan imposes a limitation on the total number of retirement assets you can own across all Roth/Traditional IRA accounts, *and* Employer sponsored plans. This limitation is $20 mil total; **if the total amount in the accounts exceeds this number, you must withdrawal 100% of the overage from your Roth accounts whether the balance otherwise meets the requirements for the cap of $10 mil or not**. + +* **Private Placement in Roth:** The proposed plan includes a provision that requires that no new private placement investments may be made within a Roth account, and any existing private placements held by Roth accounts must exit the investment within 2 years, regardless of contractual penalties of the agreement. What this is saying is that essentially, even if you are contractually obligated to hold the private placement for 5 years, you must exit within 2, any contractual penalties associated with exiting the investment are the burden of the individual. + +* **Accredited Investments in IRA accounts:** The proposed plan includes language that revokes IRA status of *any* IRA account (Roth or Traditional), that holds assets limited to accredited investors. All taxes will be due, in summary, on any applicable income or growth associated with these accounts at the time of revocation. + +* **Controlling Interest Investments in IRA accounts:** The proposed plan includes changes to the current rule that you may not invest IRA assets into any entity in which you own 50% stake or greater. The limitation is now 10%, and you cannot be an Executive, Officer, Trustee, or member of a Board of Directors for the entity in question. The transition period on this is also 2 years to exit the securities held in the IRA. + +* **Reporting of ALL transactions over $600:** This proposal includes changes that would change transaction reporting requirements from any *cash* transaction of $10,000 or more, to any transaction of any kind over $600. + +* **Qualified Conservation Passthrough donations:** This proposal includes changes to current conservation easement passthrough contributions to limit the charitable contribution possibilities for partnerships. Essentially, this prevents a partnership from donating a significant portion of the land assets their organization controls to conservation as a charitable contribution to offset profits from the business. If you have further questions, I can elaborate more, though this will typically be a very niche change that will have huge implications for those it impacts, but will generally impact very few people. + +* **Repeal of requirement for IRA penalties to be approved by management:** This means if you call the IRS regarding a tax issue, the individual you are speaking with may now add penalties to your ledger with the IRS without requiring approval from leadership. + +* **Changes to Foreign Securities:** This proposal would treat all securities owned by American Citizens in foreign markets as if they were domestically owned for purposes of taxation. This basically means foreign investment will be double taxed, by the entity where the securities are held, and by the US. Anyone investing overseas in foreign markets should watch this very closely. + +* **FMLA Changes:** The proposed bill will eliminate FMLA reimbursement to businesses in 2023 instead of 2025. This will likely eliminate the benefit completely. + +* **Provision to remove Caps on taxes on Spirits:** The proposed law includes removing the current caps on taxable amounts of imported spirits from Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. This will effectively increase the cost of liquor imported from these locations, as more tax will be paid. + +* **Changes to REITs:** Under the proposed law, partnerships, estates, trusts, and corporations who own a portion of a REIT acquired by section 318(a)(3) downward attribution rule may not use section 318(a)(3) downward attribution rule to again pass the ownership to an individual. What all of that means is basically, if you owned a stake in a REIT, and legally passed that ownership to one of those entities, that entity could not pass that ownership along to someone else. However, if one of those entities were to simply buy a stake in a REIT, they could *then* legally pass that ownership to someone else using the aforementioned provision. + +There are also included changes to corporate taxes, and other things that will inherently be passed to consumers through prices increases to offset the additional tax burdens on companies. + +All in all, the changes here are realistically going to stagnate the economic growth we see right now, increase COL, and take a lot more money out of pockets that are upper middle class instead of wealthy. The marriage penalties on a lot of these provisions do not make sense to me, and this inherently hurts more households with dependents than anything, which will cause consumer spending to decrease since those households will have less disposable income. + +I hope this does not pass, to be honest. + +If you have questions that I can answer without client engagement, I will be happy to do so. +* Figured out FI/RE at around age 19, I am 25 now +* Did not really know how to get a job, so I took anything that paid a wage. +* Worked while going to college, lived at my parents hoarding home +* Socially isolated myself due to (at the time) unnecessary costs +* My job choice and college major were completely destructive +* Picked a terrible career choice that is even more work until you drop +* Became extremely depressed, broke down constantly, went to therapy, lost most of my savings. +* Probably unfit to work + + +Life experiences: + +* Other than school work and grades, I have nothing to worthwhile to share +* I turned down friends, relationships, dating, sex, travel adventures due to the cost +* I never looked at what made me happy because I was always unhappy unless I did well at school +* I am not an adult at this point, just a 16 year old kid mentally who thought he was doing the right thing but failed to sense his own feelings + +Basically, I am trapped into a spiral. Do you have any advice? +I thought Iā€™d share some of my stock market knowledge to help my fellow HODLers get a perspective on the CME futures that will be launching soon. + +First let me explain a bit of history: in 1982 CME group launched futures on the S&P500. + +What happened next? The stock market went on a spectacular run for 5 years until it eventually crashed in 1987. + +Why does this matter for Bitcoin? Because I believe a similar story is about to unfold. This story is the fundamental story about adding leverage to a new underlying asset. + +Bitcoin is a relatively ā€œunleveragedā€ asset as compared to other financial assets. Itā€™s new, itā€™s untainted. This is significant because of the mechanics of market prices and the future potential of market prices. + +When something enters a levering stage, like Bitcoin is about to, the mechanics of the market are HEAVILY weighted to the buy side and not the sell side. Why? Because to be a seller you MUST be a previous buyer (or if youā€™re shorting, the supply comes from a previous buyer). This may sound weird, but the potential capacity to sell is a function of those who previously bought. This is why in an early market like Bitcoin itā€™s very hard for it to consistently fall as thereā€™s not a lot of buyers yet built into the price. It takes years and years of accumulation and volatility to create a normalized market. When itā€™s new, especially pre leverage, itā€™s very easy to bid it up. + +When the CME futures are added, it will likely lead to spectacular rallies, but you need to arm yourself with the knowledge that the eventual buying will plant the seeds of the future capacity to panic. + +This is what happened in 1987: The stock market had a 3 day wipeout of over 22%. It took 5 years to develop the buy side enough to create the conditions for panic. This was caused by the CME futures in 1982. + +Even since 1987, there has never been a crash of similar magnitude, because that initial levering stage was eventually normalized and a healthy market now exists on both bid side and ask side (sell side). + +Why do I tell you this? I want to arm you with expectations to keep your wits when it all goes down. The crash on Bitcoin will likely be of many magnitudes deadlier than the stock market. We just had a 29% correction and it was frankly less than the last two. 20-40% corrections are standard in Bitcoin. When we have the futures levered crash, itā€™ll likely be 50-60%+. This will be hard on your psychological commitment. Prices do funny things to peopleā€™s perception, just like how BCH rose and now suddenly everyone thinks itā€™s a BTC contender. (Nothingā€™s changed, price was just pumped up and psychology affected.) + +So first thing: prepare for that eventual crash, I suspect itā€™ll take 1-3 years to create the conditions for an extreme sell side due to leveraging. This sell will start and accelerate, hitting stop losses and margin calls, which is ā€œmechanical sellingā€. The mechanical selling (forced selling) will cascade and create a feedback loop where more margin calls are hit, more stop losses, etc etc until almost all profits of the last year or 2 are wiped. Combined with the emotional panic caused by extreme falling prices, it will make people think Bitcoin isnā€™t real and abandon it. + +Next thing: the 1987 crash, while devastating in many ways, was completely recovered by the stock market in 8 months. Seriously! The worst crash ever was repaired in 8 months and the market has been much more healthy since then. It is up dramatically since those days, and that crash was just a blip on the screen. + +The same will happen with Bitcoin, but my fear is that crash will be worse than even wallsteeters can handle, and it may shake you HODLers to the core. + +But if you understand that the powerful selling is just a function of the leveraged previous buying, itā€™s just fundamentally an opportunity. + +I will ride this hard as we lever up, and after an extreme period of euphoria, when Bitcoin is on every front page, when every HODLer owns a mansion, when your government-loving socialist neighbour is asking for your help converting money to Bitcoin, Iā€™ll be lightening up heavily, waiting for the crash. I will bet everything at the bottom of the crash, and sail off into the sunset a crypto-god. + +Good luck guys. I hope you weather the next 1-3 years with great savvy. + +EDIT: + +A few people are getting a bit confused about the ā€œsettling in USDā€ nature of these contracts, which has nothing to do with what Iā€™m talking about. Less than 10% of these contracts will actually settle and receive the applicable USD. + +Whatā€™s important to understand is how futures affect future perception of price. + +Hereā€™s an example: + +Imagine you go to your neighbour who wants BTC. You make a contract that you will deliver him 11,000 USD worth of BTC in 3 months. He gets this contract and pays 100 bucks for this right. You are happy because you planned to sell at 11,000 anyways, and the neighbour is happy because he wants to get exposed to BTC and thinks itā€™ll go higher. + +So now letā€™s say your other neighbour approaches the neighbour you just sold to, and says ā€œIā€™ll pay you 200 for that contract, I think BTC is going to easily be 11200 on delivery. And then another neighbour goes ā€œholy shit Iā€™ll pay 1000 for that contract BTC is easily going to be over 12000 by then!ā€ And before you know it, this contract for future delivery is going to be bid to hell, and the contract is trading around 8500 as most think itā€™ll be worth over 19,000 by that time. + +Letā€™s imagine you watched this frenzy. Do you think itā€™ll have a perception on what you think your current BTC is worth? Youā€™re probably really sad you have to deliver at 11,000, arenā€™t you? This is how futures contracts drag up spot price. + +That contract I described is a futures forward contract. And since futures have enormous leverage, how much do you think itā€™ll allow them to bid the future perception of prices of BTC? + +When CME futures launch youā€™ll be able to go online and see what people expect BTC to be in 6 months. What if it says itā€™s going to be 25,000? How will you feel? + +In other commodities, this doesnā€™t get so frenzied. If some guys are bidding up corn, itā€™ll compel farmers to plant more corn, more supply then comes online in the future, lowering price. + +There is no such mechanism in BTC. Iā€™m personally so cautiously excited to see the frenzy that happens. I really donā€™t know, this is where my knowledge ends and everyone else I think. Complete uncharted territory. + +EDIT 2: I'm going to add one timing element I think you need to watch for when it comes to this levering/crash scenario that has occurred before. + +The number 1 thing I'll be watching for when I get ready for this is: everyone here will be wealthy. Think about it. You're all first movers, way early in the adoption curve. You may feel behind but you aren't. There's a handful that are wealthy all ready, and they are the true innovators. But it's when the people that are on this subreddit get rich, like actually wealthy, I'll start paying attention for an extreme euphoric move. That extreme move upwards will cause a societal FOMO. You'll feel it, you'll see it around you. I may not sell everything, as its dangerous to ever sell BTC, but I'll lighten. The best example of how a frenzy looks is just what happened to BCH. 590 to 2800 isn a few days. That's like BTC moving to 45,000 by Saturday. That would feel fucking crazy, no? I'm watching for that style of velocity, maybe not as short term, but something that builds over 3-6 months. Then I wait for disaster to strike. +I recently bought a new build in Northern California for 429 + 12k (appliances, upgrades) + 17k (solar panels) = 458k (+ maybe 5k for miscellaneous) = 462k +Interest rate is about 3.2%. 30 year mortgage + +Iā€™m 26. + +I make about 6k a month after taxes and the mortgage will be between $2800 to $3000. A month. Including all the things, HOA, Taxes, insurance etc. + +That is at about 50% of my take home and Iā€™m starting to get nervous. The home will be done in about 2 months and I just wanted to get others thought. + +I saved for my down payment of 5% so I should be okay there. + +I know having a home comes with tax advantages but. Did I bite more than I can chew? + +It leaves me with little room for my 401k and other investment such as Crypto, REITS or I should say diversification. Edit: [ maxing out 401k, Roth IRA, HSA, other no real estate investments] + +I thought about selling it after 1 year. Granted I live at home current with very few bills. This decision was made during the Pandemic when I believed I would be returning to that area for work but we will be working 90% from. So, I can always travel there when needed. +Is this a good investment still? Should I prioritize stock market and freedom instead? + +The bottom line question is: After rent, I have net income of 3k. Will I be able to make a decent budget that includes maxing retirement accounts, living on decent food etc? + + +Edit: To summarize some key points for those are looking for solutions like I was. + +1. Donā€™t be in this situation. If you can get out, do it. Itā€™s not work the stress youā€™ll endure for the coming years. There a better ways to invest your money. +Peace is important. + +2. Your HOA should never be that expensive. + +3. Sublet if you canā€™t get out. You can use AIRBNB, furniture finder, other long term leasing service for travel nurses. Or simply just rent one or two rooms in your home. Youā€™ll have less financial stress + +3. Your mortgage insurance + property taxes WILL increase every. This depends on factors based on where you live. You should research this before. + +4. Donā€™t Panic! + +5. Create a plan of action for when you get into your home. Youā€™ll most literally make it but you need to have a plan. Be diligent. + +6. Noodles are cheap!šŸ¤Ŗ + +7. ETF > Crypto investments. + +Thanks everyone for taking the time to respond. You were honest but not condescending. We all make bad choices. I appreciate your time!šŸ™šŸ¾ +Since /u/Bastiat hasn't posted this for the past 2 days, I would like to post it because it's necessary. + +**TL/DR** + +Bitcoin users can help lower transaction fees and improve Bitcoin by switching to SegWit addresses and encourage wallets and exchanges to do the same. + +**SUMMARY** + +Segregated Witness (SegWit) was activated on the Bitcoin network August 24 2017 as a soft fork that is backward compatible with previous Bitcoin transactions ([Understanding Segregated Witness](https://thewalletgenius.com/understanding-segwit-segregated-witness/)). Since that time wallets and exchanges have been slow to deploy SegWit, some admitting in December 2017 that they have not even started work on integrating it. Others, such as Zebpay in India [have already implemented SegWit](https://blog.zebpay.com/how-zebpay-reduced-bitcoin-transaction-fees-a9e24c788598) and are reaping the benefits of reduced transaction fees. If Bitcoin users demand SegWit now it will temporarily relieve the transaction backlog while more even more advanced solutions such as Lightning are developed. + +Batching is another great way that exchanges can reduce their fees. See: [Saving up to 80% on Bitcoin transaction fees by batching payments](https://bitcointechtalk.com/saving-up-to-80-on-bitcoin-transaction-fees-by-batching-payments-4147ab7009fb). Despite the benefits of batching, some exchanges have been slow to implement it. + +There is an opportunity now for all Bitcoin users to individually contribute to help strengthen and improve the Bitcoin protocol. At this point, the process requires a bit of work/learning on the part of the user, but in doing so you'll actually be advancing Bitcoin and leaving what could turn out to be a multi-generational legacy for humanity. + + +______________________ + +**MEMPOOL/SEGWIT STATISTICS** + +- [BitInfoCharts.com - Average Transaction Fees](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#3m) - $31.10 USD per TX +- [Blockchain.info - Unconfirmed Transactions](https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions) - 185k unconfirmed TX's +- [SegWit Charts](http://segwit.party/charts/) - 10.02% SegWit TX's + +__________________________ + + +**BACKGROUND** + +On Dec 18 Subhan Nadeem has pointed out that: + +[If every transaction in the Bitcoin network was a SegWit transaction today, blocks would contain up to 8,000 transactions, and the 138,000 unconfirmed transaction backlog would disappear instantly. Transaction fees would be almost non-existent once again](https://hackernoon.com/bitcoin-owners-you-need-to-do-these-two-things-right-now-a73122dd23d4). + +A few thousand Bitcoin users from /r/Bitcoin switching to making their next transactions SegWit transactions will help take pressure off the network now, and together we can encourage exchanges/wallets to rapidly deploy SegWit for everyone ASAP. Let's make 80%+ SegWit happen fast. You can help by taking one or more of the action steps below. + +___________________ + +**ACTION STEPS** + +1. If your favorite wallet has not yet implemented SegWit, kindly ask them to do so immediately. In the meantime start using a wallet that has already implemented SegWit. + +2. If your favorite exchange has not yet implemented SegWit, try to avoid making any further purchases of Bitcoin at that exchange and politely inform them that if they do not enable SegWit within 30-days they will lose your business. Sign-up for an account at a SegWit deployed/ready exchange now and initiate the verification process so you'll be ready to bail + +3. Help educate newcomers to Bitcoin about the transaction issue, steer them towards SegWit wallets from day one, and encourage them to avoid ever purchasing Bitcoin through non-SegWit ready exchanges that are harming Bitcoin. + +4. Spread the word! Contact individuals, websites, etc that use Bitcoin, explain the benefits of SegWit to everyone, and request they make the switch + +IMPORTANT NOTE: The mempool is currently still quite backlogged. If you are a long-term holder and really have no reason to move your Bitcoins at this time, wait until the mempool starts to clear and transaction fees go down before moving your Bitcoins to a SegWit address or SegWit friendly exchange. + +__________________________ +