metadata: authors: 0: author: Knight, P. T.
1: author: Wasty, S. S.
count: Europe,Asia,Latin America,Caribbean
docna: 0: docna: Comparative resource allocations to human
            resource development in Asia, Europe, and Latin America
docty: Policy Research Working Paper
subtopic: Health Care Services Industry,Public Sector Management and Reform,Tertiary Education,Educational Sciences,Inequality
teratopic: Gender
abstracts: cdata!: This study compiles statistics for
            selected Latin American countries and two reference groups
            of countries in East Asia and northern and southern Europe.
            The authors emphasize the need to increase attention to and
            expenditure on education and health systems in many
            developing countries, especially in Latin America, to
            improve the coverage and quality of the services they
            provide. This paper notes that wider access to secondary
            education and greater emphasis on the quality of higher
            education tends to be a distinguishing feature of the better
            performers (East Asian and northern and southern European
            countries). Much of East Asia's success can be
            attributed to the region's consistent efforts to
            improve technical and higher education, particularly in
            research and development and in engineering and other
            technical applications. Specialized technical human
            resources take time to develop. No country today can afford
            not to provide enough financial resources to develop
            critical human resources.
repnme: repnme: Comparative resource allocations to human
            resource development in Asia, Europe, and Latin America
display_title: Comparative resource allocations to
            human resource development in Asia, Europe, and Latin America
listing_relative_url: /research/1991/12/699808/comparative-resource-allocations-human-resource-development-asia-europe-latin-america
topicv3: Human Resources m1326304 1211,Tertiary Education m1326349 482,Poverty m1326687 695,Education m1327048 470,Health m1504661 3480
publishtoextweb_dt: 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z
historic_topic: Gender
origu: World Bank Institute
no_of_pages: 25
model_extractions: **Policy Research**

# **National Economic Managemen^t**

**WPS 811**

This paper-a product of the National Economic Management Division, Economic Development Institute - is a revised version of a paper presented at the Seminar on Planning and Evaluation of Social Scctors in Latin America, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in December 1989, and organized by EDI's fluman Resources Division. Copies are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. Please contact Dulce Afzal, room M7-035, extension 36335 (20 pages). December 1991.

The quality of a country's human resources will determine its ability to compete in international markets and assure the well-being of its citizens in the next century as it does in this one. Considering rapidly advancing technology, expanding global links, and threats to the ecology, it is clear that whether a society maintains or improves its competitiveness, ensures social equity, "adjusts" - or indeed survives - will ultimately depend on its success in developing its human resources. But in devising their development strategies and public expenditure portfolios, many developing societies - and among them Latin Ameriic . - ones are prominent have yet to accord due attention to their most vital resource. A major issue is whether Latin American countries will be forced to sell cheap labor and over-exploit their natural resources to maintain even current, inadequate living standards. Or will these countries follow the lead of successful European, North American, and now Asian countries that have invested heavily in their human resources?

Reviewing statistics compiled for selected Latin American countries and two reference groups of countries in East Asia and northern/ southem Europe, Knight and Wasty emphasize the need to increase attention to and expenditure on education and health systems in many developing countries, especially in Latin America, to improve the coverage and quality of the services they provide.

The paper notes that wider access to secondary education and greater emphasis on the quality of higher education tend to be a distinguishing feature of the better performers (East Asian and northem/southem European countries). Much of East Asia's success can be attributed to the region's consistcnt efforts to - improve technical and higher education particularly in research and development and in engineering and other technical applications. The Nordic countries, too, have provided thorough on-the-job training and established first-rate educational institutions, led by world-class research scientists in technical fields and social sciences.

In sum, since specialized technical human resources take time to develop, no country today can afford not to provide enough financial resouirces to develop critical human resources.

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates thc fmdings of work under way in the Bank. An objective of thc scries is to get these findings out quickly, even if presentations are less than fully polished. The findings, interpretations,<sup>and</sup> conclusions in these papers do not necessarily reprcsent official B1ank policy.

Produced by the Policy Research Dissemination Center
Comparative Resource Allocations to Human Resource Development in Asia, Europe, and Latin Amer;a by Peter T. Knight and Sulaiman S. Wasty^

# Table of Contents

|Introduction|1|
|---|---|
|Basic Indicators|I|
|Overall Levels of Educational Development<br>Welfare Indicdtors in the Health Sector|2<br>4|
|Aggregate Resource Allocation Trends|7|
|Expenditure on Education|7|
|Expenditure on Health|7|
|Toward an Identffication of Problem Areas|11|
|The Prominence of Universal Literacy Revisited|11|
|The Merits of Educational Selection<br>Designation of the"Rulesof the Game:" Transparency of the Education<br>System|11<br>1 3|
|<br>Development of Cognitive Skills in the Workplace|13|
|<br>Adaptation to Technological Transformation in the Decades Ahead|14|
|Selected References|16|
|Technical Notes on Data|18|

Respectively division chief, National Economic Management Division, Economic Development Institute, and consultant (at that time) with the Economic Development Institute of the World Bank. The authors wish oo thank Nancy Birdsall, Robert Drysdale, Elca Rosenberg, Emanuel Sharon, and Jee-Peng Tan for useful discussions in the preparation of this paper, and to Bela Balassa, Stephen Heyneman, and Ralph Romain for helpful comments on earlier drafts.
# INTRODUCTION

We know that it Is difficult to bring about a transformation which takee a socie y out of underdevelopment snlely through education; but, on the other hand, we must avoid that the nature of education, or the ;ack of it, blocks the possibilties of transformation and development.' As in the twentieth century, the quality of a country's human resources will determine its ability in the twentyfirst century to compete in international markets and assure the well-being of its citzens. A major Issue is whether Latin American countries will be forced to sell cheap labor ard over-exploi **t** heir natural resources to support even current inadequate living standards. Or will these countries follow the lead of successful European, North American, and now Asian countries that have Invested heavily in their human resources? Today these countries are reaping the benefits in improved international competitiveness, faster economic growth, and relatively greater distributional equity.<sup>2</sup> Two hundred years ago Adam Smith recNgnized the state's responsibility toward human resource development.3 But, In devising their developrn,ent strategies and public expenditure portfolios, many developing societies--and among them Latin American ones are prominent--have yet to accord due attention to their most vital resource. The 1990s are likely to be cha,acterized by a pace of change exempifried by recent events in Eastern Europe. In the face of failing walls, rapidly advancing technology, expanding global links, and threats to the ecology, how a society maintains or Improves its competitiveness, ensures social equity, "adjusts"-or indeed survives--will ultimately depend upon success in developing its human resources. The ability to learn, adapt, and create is fundamental.

This paper seeks to emphasize the need for major increases in attention to and expenditure on education and health systems In many developing countries, especially in Latin America, to improve the coverage and quality of the services they provide. To this end, we review statistics compiled to facilitate International comparisons, present current profiles of human resource development, and compare resource allocation trends in nine Latin American countries and two reference groups composed of selected countries in East Asia and Northern/Southern, Europe. We have selected this sample of 23 countries<sup>4</sup> on three criteria: somewhat comparable income levels, possible similarities in the historical development of their social programs, and a perception that the Asian and European countries may serve as valid comparators and/or models of relevance for Latin America. In Europe we have selected countries of northern and southern Europe which had comparatively late starts in industrialization. The analysis focuses on recent (mid-1980s) Indicators of achievement in education and health, on the level and composition of central government spending, on the quality of the delivered product, and on the intensity of research and development effort. Relying on trends and themes emerging from country and regional comparisons, the paper Identffies an agenda for policy reform in human resource developmen **t** o enhance a country's intemational competitiveness in the decades ahead.

# BASIC INDICATORS

Consider first several findings that emerge from a review of the basic data and how these findings may be related to the currently accepted body of developmen **t** heory.

Educators, policymakers and, more recently, economists have stressed the Importance of primary education. Today, access to prlmary education In newly Industrializing countries is virtually universal. What dffferentiates countries I Oteiza (1989) p. 830.

- 2 This question emerges clearly from the Important work of Fajnzylber (1989), which documents the extent to which the countries of Latin America lag behind a group of Asian and European countries he characterizes as ^growth with equity Industrializing countres".

- 3 Smith (1985 edtlion), "Inquiry of how far the public ought to attend to the education of the people, p. 445.

- 4 Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Finland, Greece, Italy, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Peru, Phlilppines, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Talwan, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay, and Venezuela
_Page 2_ that have developed their human resource potential rapidly in recent years-and which are often singled out es models to be emulated-from those which have not done so well? The distingulshing feature of the better performers tends to be a wider access to secondary education and a greater emphasis on the quality of higher<sup>ec:ication. in addHitcn,</sup> the successful countries have increased their allocation of resources to those sectors,<sup>have introduced clarity ano</sup> l ansparency In the educational system, and have encouraged in their populations astrong desire to learn. Further, these countries produce more technical and scientifc upeciallsts, and spend more<sup>on researchl</sup> and development.

Today and In the future, a secondary education is the minimum requirement to assimilate high technology, and at least an undergraduate education from a university or other Insitution of higher learning Is required to conduct tthe research and development associated wfth innovation and the creation of new technology. Technical and scientiflc education, and higher education In general Is expensive. Through an extensive use of selection criteria, some countries choose their technical professionals from among the brightest citizens; In so dolng, scarce public resources are used to help the less fortunate obtain access to higher education, not to subsidize<sup>the well-off whocEtnafford it.</sup> Health is valued not only In itself, but also because it contributes to the ability to learn and to the quality of work effort. Malnutrition before birth and during the first years of Ife can permanently stunt the brain. Declines In fertilty, Important for achieving sustainable development and Improving the quality of human resources, are normally preceded by Increasing female Iteracy, rsing female participatioI **n** the labor force, and declining infant mortality. This 'seamless web' of relationships between edu,-at;on, health, nutrition, and population was emphasized a decade ago In the World Bank's World Development Report 1 980.5 The evidence reported ten years later In the World Development Reort 1990, with is focus on poverty alleviation, reinforces the view that the effectveness of education as a weapon In the fight against poverty goes well beyond productivity in the labor market. One year of mother's education has been associated with a 9 percent decrease In under 5 mortality;6 in general, the children of better-educated mothers, other things bsing equal, tend to be heaithier. A strategy for a rapid and sustainable progress on human resource development must consist of mutually-reinforcing elements of education, health, nutrition, and population.

The following sections summarize the comparative basic Indlcators' of attainment In the education and heaith sectors. 6 Overall Levels of Educational Development Adult LHeracv. Among the selected countries, the proportion of the literate In the adult<sup>population</sup> (age 15+) varies from the 'nwest, 65% (China), to 85%-95% inEast Asia/Southem Europe/Latin America, and to the highest, 100% (Nordic countrif.: N!tably, female literacy is not divergent from the overall aduit lIteracy<sup>level, except in China (47%).</sup> Enrollrr. -v Ratios. 3ath total and female primary school enrollment (first level, with minimum duration of five years) is universal; itfluctuates from 95% to 120% of the age-group (the higher figure Incorporating enrollment outside the age group). But secondary school enrollmernt (second level, average 3+3 years) exhibits awide disparity across countries: Spain (98%), Taiwan (91%), Korea Ci5%), Mexico (55%), Venezuela (46%), and Brazil (36%). (See figure 1.) Female secondary school enrollment In some cases Is even higher. Consider the same group of countries:<sup>Spain (101%),</sup> Taiwan (96%), Korea (92%), Mexico (54%), Venezuela (50%), a *d Brazil (36%). (See figure 2.)

- **S** See In particular Chapter 5, 'Human development Issues and poliies' for its last section on the 'seamless web' (pp. 68-70). Part II of that chapter was also published as World Bank, Poverty and Human Development (1981).

- World DeveloDment Report 1990 p.81.

- 7 Detailed tabulations are available from the authors on request. a Note, however, that national averages often obscure spatial differences within a country.
_Page 3_ Figure 1: Gross Enrollment Ratio Secondary <!-- Start of picture text --> 120 -)1<br>100-<br>Brazil Mex Venez Korea Phil Taiw Greece Spain Svred-n Lat AmerAsla Europe<br>80urce World Bank/UNESCO<br><!-- End of picture text --> FigLire 2: Female Enrollment FRatio S2econdary <!-- Start of picture text --> 120 -. _ _<br>120<br>Brazil Mex Yenez Korea Phil ,'aiw Greece Staiy8n Swieden La Amer Asia Europe<br>Source: World Banks/UNESCO<br>100 --<br>40<br>20<br>Brazil Max Venez Korea Phil 'iaiw Greece Italy Spn Sweden L. Amer Asia Europe<br>Source: World Bank/UNESCO<br><!-- End of picture text -->
_Page 4_ Enrollment in higher education in all cases<sup>is less than40%of the specific age-group (20-24). The figures vary</sup> from approximately 35% (Argentina, Korea,<sup>the Philippines, Swaden, and Uruguay)--which Is roughly the average for</sup> Industrial market economies--to a low of<sup>around 15% (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Turkey). The low enrollment ratios</sup> In higher education in Malaysia (9%) and<sup>Taiwan (10%) possib;y do not take Into account a relatively large number of</sup> their students studying abroad. Again, In<sup>some instances, female enrollment in higher education Is greater than country</sup> aVbrage: Argentina (42%) and the Philippines (40%).

Total Fertility Rate. Among the sample<sup>countries, Latin America as a region has the highest fertility rate of 3.5,</sup> compared to the averages of 3.0 and 2.1<sup>respectively for Asia and Europe (see figure 3)--reflecting the probable linkage</sup> between high female secondary school<sup>enrollment and low fertility. (Usually, the effects of education on fenillty are</sup> complicated. At low levels of education<sup>a few extra years of schooling may actually lead to Increased fertility; but after</sup> that there Is a strong negative effect).

Female Labor Force Participation. Regression<sup>results show, not surprisingly, that female participation In the</sup> labor force Is negatively correlated wlth<sup>high fertility. As figure4shows, East Asian countries have the highest</sup> participation rate for women; contrast Thailand<sup>(46%)and Taiwan(44%)with Brazil(27%)and Colombia (22%).</sup>

# Welfare Indicators In the Health Sector

Life Expectancv. The regional averages<sup>for all countries (from65 to 74years) are almost approaching those</sup> for Industrialized market economies as a group<sup>(76years).</sup> Infant Mortality (per thousand live births).<sup>Infant mortality rates arc widely considered to be among the most</sup> sensitive Indicators of the extent of poverty<sup>(and the Inequality of income distributio ;. Regression results also reiterate</sup> that high fertility Is positively correlated<sup>with a high Infant mortality rate.</sup> Among the sample countries, the figures<sup>are vastly disparate. Contras</sup><sup>**t**he following numbers: Sweden (6),</sup> Taiwan (7), Spain (10), Costa Rica (19),<sup>Chile (22), Korea (27), Argentina (34), Mexico(50),Brazil (67), and Peru (94).</sup> (See figure 5.) Maternal Mortality (per 100,000 live binhs).<sup>Considerable differences prevail In the case of matemal mortality</sup> rates: Sweden (4), Spain (10), Costa Rica<sup>(26),Chile (55), Korea (34), Argentina (85), Mexico(92),Brazil (150), and</sup> Peru (310). (See figure 6.) Th3se statistics<sup>say a lot about the quality and distribution of health care.</sup> Provision of Primarv Health Care. The published<sup>indicators commonly used, populations per physician and</sup> paramedic staff, do not vary much among<sup>countries with similar per capita Income levels. Specifically, the per</sup> population availability of medical personnel<sup>In Korea, Taiwan, or Malaysia, Is not very different from that In Chile, Costa</sup> Rlca, or Brazil. The problems reflected<sup>In the above infant and maternal mortelity data for some Latin American</sup> countrles are perhaps also pertain to the<sup>spatial distribution and the quality of medlcal personnel and facilities, as well</sup> as the avallability of medicines and the<sup>education of mothers.</sup>
_Page 5_ Figure 3: Total Fertility Rate <!-- Start of picture text --> 5 ~_<br>4 -<br>2<br>0<br>Brazil Mex Venez China Korea Taiw Greece Italy Sweden Lat Amer Asia Europe<br>Source: World Bank/UNESCO<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 4: Female Labor Force Participation <!-- Start of picture text --> 50<br>40<br>20 -<br>10<br>0-<br>Brazil Col Peru China Talw Thall Fin Nor Port Lat Amer Asia Europe<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: World Bank/UNESCO
_Page 6_ Figure 5: Iniant Mortality (per thousand) <!-- Start of picture text --> 100<br>80 -<br>60 -l<br>Argon Brazil Chile CRica Mex Peru Korea Talw Spn Sweden<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> L. Amer Asia Europe<br><!-- End of picture text --> 8aurce: World Bank Figure 6: Maternal Mortality 1980--(per 100,000) <!-- Start of picture text --> 350<br>300<br>250 . X<br>160<br>0<br>Argon Brazil Chile CRica Mex Pefu Korea Spain Sweden L. Amer Asia Europe<br>Oeorte. World fansk<br><!-- End of picture text -->
_Page 7_

# AGGREGATE RESOURCE ALLOCATION TRENDS

The level and growth of public spending on social sectors refiecZs a country's overall fiscal effon **t** o invest In human capital. To maintain comparability across countries, the trends In aggregate spending depicted here refer to central government expend3hures only, though in some countries<sup>9</sup> lower levels of government also finance a major pail social services, particulsriy education.

## Expenditure on iducation

Regional averages do not indicEte a marked disparity in central government spending on education expressed a a proportion of GDP and total expenditures. Nevertheless, there is a wide variation among countries, the size of spending as a percentage of _GDP_ being particularly low in Brazil (0.7%)'°, Argentina (i.5-), the Philirlines (2.1%.), and particularly high in Malaysia (6.1%), and Chile and Costa Rica (4.1%). These numbers however need to be Interpreted with caution since diversity in spending can be attributed to differences in wage structures and/or unit costs.

Of much greater concern are the negative growth rates In real per capita expenditures on education. **Among the smple of** 23 **countris, 11** winessed a declining annual rate of per capita education expenditures in 1980-85. Of **those** 11 countbes, 8 are from Latin America (Turkey, Spain, and Sweden, being the other three). (See figure 7.)

## Expenditure on Health

Central govemment spending on health (both preventative and curative) In the sample of industrial market economies in Southern Europe ane Nordic countries significantly exceeds the amounts allocated In East Asian and Latn American countries. On average, the former group (Southern Europe and Nordlc) allocates 5% of Its GDP to the provision of health services, compared with the latter group's figure of around 1 percent. In the 1980-85 period, real per capita expenditures on health declined In 10 out of the 23 countries. Of hose 10, 6 are Latn American counbies (Brazil, Colombia, and Peru being the exceptions). (See figure 8.) Notably, Brazil, China, and Mexico. For example, in Brazil in 1974, total spending by federal, state, and municipal govemments and other public entitles totalled 2 8% of GDP. See: Knight, et al (1979), Brazil Human Resources Special Report, Annex l1l, p. 141, Table 50.

> **10** See: footnote 8.
_Page 8_ Figure 7: Growth Rate of Central Government Expenditure on Education Real Per capita: 1980-85 <!-- Start of picture text --> 20<br>5<br>0-<br>-15<br>Brazil Chit CRica Mex Urug Ven Chin Kor Talw Fin Italy Nor L Am Asla Eur<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Sources IMF<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 8: Growth Rate of Central Government Expenditure on Health Real Per capita: 1980-85 <!-- Start of picture text --> 15-<br>0<br>.5<br>-10<br>Argon Chll CRila Mex Urug Van Chin Kor Taiw Thai Fln Italy L Am Asia Eur<br><!-- End of picture text --> source: IMF
_Page 9_ Declines In real per capita social expenditures can have serious repercusslons for the coverag **e** , quity, and operational characteristics of the system. By simpl **e** xtrapolatlon, theeducational achievement of a country--In terms of, say, coverage or enrollment rates--tends to improve with more resources. The present levels of basic educatlon as well as health are only a reflectlon of the cumulative impact of past Investments in these sectors. Further, Intrasectoraal ocatlons--the **l** distribution of expenditures by the level of educatlon and according to purpose (emoluments, maintenance, scholarships, school meals and board, and avallability of adequa **te** aching materials)-are all adversely uffected by the paucity of funds. In sum, enhanced public expenditurb **e** comes synonymous wih a govemment's commitment toward human resource development.

This Is not to suggest that money alone buys progress. Appreciable changes in educational outcomes do not necessarily resuit from relative **l** arge Increases y Inaggregate spending. Indeed, at times, the necessity offiscal retrenchments may help focus pollcymakers' attention on o,her serlous problem **s** , uch as the Inequity of much govemment spending and the poor mrnnagement of many government social programs.

Also, very different outcomes are possible with cormparable levels of fiscal effort; conversely, very similar outcomes can obtain with quite different levels of spending. For example, public spending on educatioI **n** Thailand Is com. -able to that In Chile, but the coverage ofthe Thai educational system Is much smaller; In Philippines and Malaysia, coverage Issomewhat comparable, but public spending ismuch smaller in the Philippines, 2.1% of GDP compared to Malaysia's 6% figure. These patterns are an early Indication that sectoral policles and considerations beside higher aggregate spending have a parallel Impact on educational outcomes.

Intrasectoral Emphasis. In all countries, central government current expenditures oneducation constitute roughly 8&%-90% of the total government expenditures on education. A major proportion ofthese current expenditures is devoted to primary education. However, variation among countries becomes pronounced Interms of relative spending on secondary and higher education. There appears to be a relatively greater emphasis or secondary educatioI **n** Korea, Malaysi **a** , nd Taiwan, and In countries of Northern/Southern Europe, whereas Brazil, Costa RICA Mexico, and Venezuela spend a larger share on higher than on secondary education.

Salaries ofteaching and administrative staff claim the largest portion (65% and above) of current expenditures on education. The country variations inthis context do not follow any distinct trend, except for possible dffferences In wage structures and t6ache. qualffications. Several countries stand out in their expenditure onscholarships (except for the caveat that the figures depicted here may not include tuition-free education), teaching materials, and welfare (school meals and board). Noteworthy among them are Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Chile, and Venezuela. Insome Instances-Malaysia, for example--targeted scholarships and opportunitles forstudy abroad are offered as an Institutlonalized way for alleviating inequities Inethnic income distrlbution.

Student-Teacher Ratios. Pupil-teacher ratios, particularly at post-primary level education, depend on such choices as the grouping of students, the use of multiple-grade teaching and of specialized teachers and other academic staff, and so forth. A higher studert-tacuity ratlo may also reflect ahigher number of classes per teacher and/or large clas **s** izes. Both arrangenents signify tha **t** eachers are used more Intensively; and the available data on those counts Indlcates that East Asian and Nonhern/Southem European teachers are used more efficiently as an educatlonal Input than their Latin American counterparts.

Universitv-Level Enrollments by Field. Evidence also suggests that East Asian economies have a proportionately greater enrollment Inscience and technology disciplines (natural science, mathematics and computer science, engineerdng, architecture and town planning, and agriculture).

Research and Development Exgenditures. Asregression results corroborate, a high proportion ofa country's populatlon engaged In professional research Is largely explained by Its spending on rosearch and development. Korea and Taiwan far exceed all upper-middle Income developing countries In terms of their production and training of screntists, engineers, and technicians. Per million of population, research personnel are as follows: Sweden 6,000, Korea 1,900, Taiwan 1,600, Italy 1,700, Mexico 600, Chile 425, and Brazil 240. (See _figures_ 9 and 10.)
_Page 10_ Figure 9: R & D Expenditure <!-- Start of picture text --> (% of GNP)<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 3.5<br>3<br>2.5-<br>2 _<br>1.5 -<br>I<br>0.<br>Brazil Chile Mexico Korea Taiwan Italy Sweden Let Amer Asia Europe<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Sources UNESCO<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 10: Research Personnel (Per million population) <!-- Start of picture text --> thousands<br>7e<br>6t<br>5-<br>4<br>2<br>Brazil Chile Mexico Korea Taiwan Italy Sweden Lat Amer Asia Europe<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Source. UNESCO**
_Page 11_

# TOWARD AN IDENTIFICATION OF PROBLEM AREAS

Wha **t** hen will distinguish countries enjoying relatively higher levels of education **a** l nd health attainment in the years ahead? The available indicators already highlight the primacy of overall resources devoted to the greater access and quality of the educational and health systems. However, because of the lack of sufficient information on adequate quantitative and qualitative Indicators, the country trends compared In this paper neither convey a very precise message nor permit proving a specific hypothesis. Yet, several Issues assume significance for policymaking, and a review of the Ilterature suggests some Important conclusions for policymakers.

## The Prominence of Universal Llteracv Revisited

In their historical research project, Morris and Adelman' explore the reasons for the extraordinarily diverse responses of the European periphery and the non-European world to the challenges and opportunities created by the early industrial rev- tutions. Several of their principal findings on the patterns of human resource development are striking. Countries attaining early widespread industrializati **o** n r balanced agricultural-industrial growth were all 50% lIterate by 1850. No country achieved successful growth before 1914 without adult literacy over 50%.

Flve principal issues emerge from their project results: (i) the spread of literacy was consistently associated with agricultural Improvements; (ii only in overwhelmingly agricultural, mainly subsistence economies--such asBurma, India, Egypt, and China--did the results show no positive effects of llteracy; (iii) literacy becomes effective only after people become well accustomed to profit calculations and commercial practices 2; (iv) political, ideological, and religious Influences were often found more important than economic considerations in the spread of literacy; and (v) literacy in the 19th century, as today, was a powerful mechanism for increasing the receptivity to new ideas and for broadening the base for politcal representation.

The experience of Nordic countries, too, indicates that the early advances in education and health were Important factors enabling the Scandinavians to adap **t** heir economies to capitalistic environments and to catch up with the core countries in Europe.13 The development ofthe Scandinavian educational system is marked by three distinct phases: (i) 1820-1860: emphasis on compulsory education at the lower elementary level (literacy); (ii) 1860-1939: gradually more emphasis on secondary education, with good quality higher education limited to a small section of the population; and (iii) augmentation of vocational and technical training and, from 1950s onwards, compulsory secondary education and massive expansion in the number of students at the college and university level. In financing these education Investments, the central and municipal governments played their designated roles; in addition, especially at the early stage, private schools and various forms of Informal education, the church, and later the trade unions served as Important education sponsors.

## The Merits of Educational Selection

A schooling system determined by factors other than ability induces a misallocation of present resources In education-leading to Important efficiency and distributional losses. In a competitive International environment, not choosing one's technical elite from among the brightest citizens can have a great effect on economic performance. 4

- 1 Morris and Adelman (1989), pp. 1417-1432.

- 12 This viewpoint Is supported by Blaug (1966), pp. 303-418.

- t3 Mitra (1989), p. 28.

- **14** For specfflcation of an analytical framework used to derive magnitudes of the economic cost of this misallocatlon, see: Piiiera and Selowsky (1981), pp. 111-31.
_Page 12_ By one estimate, developing countries could achieve a 5% higher long-run GDP if they were<sup>to have a fully reformed</sup> educational system based on merit.15 By another estimate, tho economic pay-off of educational reforms to developing countries would be three times more than the pay-off obtained<sup>if OECD countries reduced restrictions</sup> on third world 1 exports. e Although the magnitude of those effects may be uncertain, the argument appears plausible.

The theory holds that certain, but not all, elements<sup>of social selection are amenable</sup> to policy manipulation. Within the education sector, there are basically three ways to increase the merit factor in the development of a country's human resources: () assuring that as broad a group of citizens as possible enters school;<sup>(ii) determining</sup> whether they stay in school as much as possible on merit grounds; and (iii)<sup>using objective tests to determine</sup> how the few of them chosen to attend university education are selected.

The use of standardized selection tests reduces both the inequity costs and inefficiencies accruing from the misallocation ofresources within education. These tests--by drawing attention at one specific time<sup>to a single, widely-</sup> understood indicator--tend to produce relatively tangible results by which to Judge quality. Selection testing thereby holds the school system accountable for those results; provides an open and continuing forum on the school system's abillty to deiiver results parallel to the public's expectations; and exerts pressure on the educational system for reassessment and reform.

- The general principles and policy options of standardized testing are summarized as follows:1 7 * The desiqn of testing systems. No system of examinations is designed on technical grounds alone and in isolation from the political environment. For example, aptitude<sup>testing In the United States exists</sup> because of the complex political prerogatives for communities to control their own curriculum. Schoolbased assessments can function in Sweden because of the modest logistical prerequisites and consensus on criteria achievable in a homogeneous society. Non-multiple choice formats ce; exist in Brftain because the number of test-take **r** s emains manageable and the definition of academic excellence has modest variation from one university to another. Multiple testing by Individual colleges can function In Japan because of the level of sophistication and motivation of the test-taking population. No model exists which can be transferred to developing countries without forethought and adaptation.

- The selection mechanism. The mechanism adopted in this context will affect the quality of universities and therefore a nation's future. Since universities are expected to increase levels of self-financing and to be competitive internationally, they should be assigned the responsibility of selecting their own students. Further, they should have access to school-based records of student accomplishments to assis **t** hem In their choice.

- * The testing agencies. The quality of tests rest to a large<sup>extent on the ability of the testing agency to</sup> reduce Its susceptibility to political interference and to pursue its professional ends autonomously. Agencies should therefore have their own source of finance<sup>from test fees. In the larger countries,</sup> competition among agencies might be healthy. On the other<sup>hand, test agencies subsidized</sup> by the public sector should be expected to fulfil public functions. These function **s** hould include<sup>establishment</sup> of a strong system of analyzing test results and the feeding of<sup>this information back Into the school</sup>

- Pifiera and Selowsky, **OD.** cit. In th6ir study the authors derive orders of magnitude<sup>for the gains in value</sup> added due to a series of educational reforms. Such<sup>reforms are ranked according to the number of</sup> educational levels whose new selection criteria becomes<sup>the level of preschool ability. Throughout this</sup> evaluation the size or capacity of each educational level is held constant so as to Isolate the pure qualitative effects of such reforms.

- 6 Klrmani, Malajoni and Meyer (1984), pp. 661-84.

- **17** For detaile **d** escriptions of testing systems in selected OECD countries, see: Heyneman and Fagerlind (1988).
_Page 13_ system. Testing agencie **s** houid also share with other agencies technical skills (item design, computer programming, etc.), and equipment with education research functions.

- Tests. Where the test-taking population is high, geographically dispersed, culturally heteroger sous, or where the test employs a new nationa **l** anguage, the test itself could benrfit from a multiple choice format. Administrative and pedagogical effects of these tests would be maximized If questions were based upon the curriculum; if they were open ex post facto to public scrutiny; and if they were to Include all levels of skill hierarchies, from recall to synthesis.

Designation of the 'Rules of the Game': Transparency ofthe Education System The Issue of motivation and the value placed on schooling by a large number of citizens concerns the entire society and not merely the education sector. That economic returns tend to be highest in some low-income countries reflects the fact that, as a commodity, education is both scarce and in high demand. . . . when asked 'whether It Is Important to do well in school4, secondary school students In India almost uniformly answer yes, whereas in France three students in ten say no. When asked whether they would like to "leave school as soon as possible, 10%* in India, 30% in England, 45% in the United States and Sweden, and 65% in France answered yes. On almost every attitudinal Indicator, students In India value school more and are more likely to consider it Important and are more likely to want the opportunity to continue. 8 A mixture of material and psychological variables (parents' occupation, education **a** l ttainment, income, and possessions; number of rooms per family member; number of books in the home; etc.) are often used in the current developmenli erature **t** to explain why children with better than average amounts seem to demonstrate better than average performances Inschool. However, these indices exert powerful and consistent influences In one society, but not In another. As Heyneman points out in his analysis using Ugandan data, "academic advantage is not an inevitable condition of economic privilege".'9 Part of the motivational considerations regarding human resource development insome low-income countries stems from the phenomenon that education In those societies Is lockstep in nature: lack of ability to complete primary or secondary school as a youth precludes the opportunity to proceed in education later In lIfe. Scarcity of opportunities thus creates competition for school places from the onset of grade one, and at a level of intensity unknown in wealthier countries until college or graduate school.

Perhaps R may not be possible for a society to instill new values. Yet, a society can require certain behavior from is citizens, communica **t** e o its youth that education is the most important task they have in front of them before becoming aduits, and above all, R can introduce clarity and transparency Inthe working of the educational system so that its participants understand the rules of the game".

Development of Cognitive Skills in the WorkPlace Although i Is a truism that working skills are closely linked to on-the-job experiences, the kind of learning that takes place at work remains largely Invisible to the educational community.20 The workplace is a learning environment the educational potential of which has scarcely been tapped, and educational planning for the future might

- 8 Fagerlnd and Munck (1981).

- l Heyneman (1979). 20 In the Unied States, the Office of Educational Research and Improvement Inthe Department ofEducatlon has conducted a detailed series of studies in industry that take a close-up look at the processes through which novice workers become experts on their jobs.
_Page 14_ well Involve new configurations of school-based and work-based leaming. This Is all the more Important for occupations whose Intellectual demands are constantly changing with the introduction of new computer-based technologies.

# Adaptation to Technological TransformatioI **n** the Decades Ahead

The main elements of this technological transformation have been Identified as:<sup>2</sup> 1

- the increased rate of technical innovation (much of which is clustered in microelectronics, biotechnology, and new materials);

- the cross-cutting nature of technological chanae (which has ranged far outside the sectors Immediately Involved to embrace applications In most other sectors);

- shortened technology life cycles and greater flexibility in resoonse to customers' needs;

- Increased automation with a smalle **r** ole for unskilled labor;

- increased enerciv and material savings; and

# substitutlon of traditional materials with new materials.

These developments portend an increased polarization between economies that can adap **t** o and, better, take advantage of technical change, and those that cannot.

By consistently emphasking widespread secondary education, the newly-industrializing countries of East Asia already provide the vast majority of their populations wHh a stronj foundation for assimilating technical change. Coupled with Intensive follow-up training at the workplace this school.ng helps them achieve concomitant Improvements In overall productMvty. There already is a tremendous stock of technology available around the world. The successful exploitation oftechnology by developing economies depends more on the ability to absorb technology than to produce i. As Dahlman notes, I...there Is evidence at both the firm and the country level that technological follower strategies can have high returns, at least until the technology gap with the leaders is considerably narrowpdl.22 Further, the technological problem of a country is not confined to acquiring or adapting foreign technology. This technology must be efficiently diffused throughout the economy and indigenous technological capability must be developed. Developing technological capability requires appropriate policies affecting the demand and supply of technological personnel and their products. It also requires building the appropriate Institutions and networks of interactlon among the dffferent agents. It Is Impossible to overestima **t** he necessity e of a good human technical baseto monitor technological trends, assess their relevance to the specific needs of a country, and to assimilate, adapt, Improve, and eventually to Innovate and Invent.

Current developmenli erature **t** often argues against subsidies to higher education at the expense of primary education. Higher education, the very top step of the leamlng ladder, Is sometimes given the lowest priorHy for educatlonal spending. A common prescription for economic development 14 injections of basic and especially vocatlonal education. After all, i Is extremely difficui **t** o rationaliz **e** xpenditure on another university when a high proportion of the country's population Is illterate. Yet, on a general level, a country needs good teachers as well as students. In more specific terms, two priorities among expense iems should certainly be to subsidize high quality research and to promote the development of polytechn **i** c nstitutes and technical universities.

21 Dahlmar (1988).

a ibid.
_Page 15_ A considerable part of the East Asian succes **s** tory can be ascribed to consistent Investments inimproving technical and higher education. In particular there was a focus on engineering and other technical applied areas and, last but not least, on Intense research and development effort. The Nordic countries, too, early establislhed high quality domestic educational institutions (led by world-class research scientists in technical fields and soclal sclences, Including economics) and furthered thorough on-the-job training. This in turn led to advances in the quality and capacity of public administration as well as the development of private entrepreneurship which would not otherwise have taken place. There was a great deal of learning from abroad, but It Is important to recognize that, especially in Sweden, an Important role was played by both local adaptations of foreign technology and outright innovations. Many of these were in the fields of agricuiture, infrastructure, and engineering and helped lay the technical foundations of what became Swedish-based multinational corporations.

The point to emphasize here is that a system of education and training needs to be balan.,ed. There Is an interplay among disciplines and levels of education and training that would render any unbalanced strategy untenable. Since specialized technical human resources take time to develop, no country today can afford not to give careful consideration to deciding on the levels of financial resources required to acquire critical human resources.
_Page 16_

# SELECTED REFERENCES

- Behrman, Jere R., and Nancy Birdsall, 'The Quality of Schoollng: Quantity Alone Is Misleading', Review (December 1983), pp. 928-946.

- American Economic

- Birdsall, Nancy, "Pragmatism, Robin Hood, and Other Themes: Good Government and Social Well-Being in Developing Countries", Paper preparedforThe Rockefeller Foundation program on science-based development, May 1989

- Blaug, Mark, Lteracy and Economic Development", School Review, (Winter 1966), pp. 303-418.

- Cooper, Charles (ed.). Science, Technology, and Development. London: Frank Cass, 1973.

- Dahiman, Carl J., 'Impact of Technological Change on Industrial Prospects for the LDCs", Paper presersted atthe World Bank seminar on technology and long-term growth prospects", November 1988.

- Fagerlind, Ingemar, and Ingrid Munck. Attitudes Towards School and Education in Seven Countries. Stockholm: University of Stockholm, Institute of International Education, 1981.

- Fajnzylber, Fernando. Industrializaci6e **n** America Latina: De la "Cala Necra" al "Casillero Vacio'--Comoaraci6n do patrones contempordneos deindustrializaci6n. Cuadernos de la CEPAL. Santiago de Chile: Naciones Unidas, Comisi6n Econ6mica para America Latina y el Caribe, 1989.

- Grosh, Margaret E. Social Spending in Latin America: The Story of the 1980s. World Bank Discussion Paper 106, November 1990.

- Haddad, Wadi D., Manin Carnoy, Rosemary Rinaldi, and Omporn Regel (eds). Education and Development: Evidence for New Priorities. World Bank Discussion Paper 95, August 1990.

- Heyneman, Stephen P., 'Why Impoverished Children Do Well in Ugandan Schools", Comparative Education (June 1979).

- Heyneman, Stephen P., and Ingemar Fagerlind (eds.). Universitv Examinations and Standardized Testina: Principles. Exnerience. and Policy Options. World Bank Technical Paper 78, 1988.

- Heyneman, Stephen P., and Daphne Siev White (eds.). The Quality of Education and Economic Development. Proceedings of a World Bank Symposium, February 1986.

- Kirmani, Naheed, Pierlulgi Malajon,, and Thomas Meyer, "Effects of Increased Market Access on Exports of Developing Countries', IMF Staff Papers (1984), pp. 661-84.

- Knight, Peter T. (ed.). Implementina Proarams of Human Development. World Bank Staff Working Paper 403, July 1980.

- Knight, Peter T., et al. Brazil Human Resources Speclal Report. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1979.

- Meerman, Jacob. Public Exoenditure inMalaysia: Who Benefits and Why. New York: Oxford University Press, 1979. Mingat, Alain, and Jee-Peng Tan, "Vho Profits from the Public Funding of Education? A Comparison by **Wodd** Regions', Comparative Education Review, 30 (1986), pp. 260-70.

- Mltra, Radja M., "The Social Market Economy Paradigm--Lessons from the Early Nordic Development Experience", Background paper prepared for Sub-Saharan Africa: A Long-Term Perspective Study, The **World** Bank, November 1989.
_Page 17_

- Morris, Cynthia Taft, and Irma Adelman, "Nineteenth-Century Development Experience and Lessons for Today", Wld Development, 9 (1989), pp. 1417-1432.

- Naya, SelJl, Miguel Urrutia, Shelley Mark, and Aifredo Fuentes. Lessons In Development: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America. San Francisco: International Center for Economic Growth, 1989.

- Oteiza, Enrique. 'Los recursos humanos en la America Latina: Enfoque hist6rico de las relaciones entre poblaci6n, educacacl6n y empleo." El Trimestre Econ6mico (Mexico) 58:4 (October-December 1989), pp.779-830.

- Pfeffermann, Guy P. Public ExPenditure inLatin America: Effects on Poverty. World Bank Discussion Paper 5, May 1987.

- Pifiera, Sebastian, and Marcelo Selowsky, "The Optimal Ability-Education Mix and the Misallocation ofResources Within Education: Magnitude for Developing Countries", Journal of Development Economics 8 (1981), pp. 111-31.

- Psacharapoulos, George. Higher Education in Developinc Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis. World Bank Staff Working Paper 440, November 1980.

- Selowsky, Marcelo. Who Benefits from Government Expenditure? A Case of Colombia. New York: Oxford University Press, 1979.

- **Smith,** Adam. An Inauirv Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. New York: Random House, The Edwin Cannan Text of the Fifth Edition, 1985.

- Tan, Jee-Peng, and Alain Mingat. Educational Develooment inAsia: A Comparative Studv Focusing on Cost and Flnancina Issues. (draft, October 1989).

Winkler, Donald R., *Efficiency and Equity in Latin American Higher Education" (draft, October 1988). **World** Bank, Araentina. Social Sectors in Crisis. Washington: The World Bank, June 1988.

Brazil, Public Spending on Social Programs: Issues and Options. Washington: The World Bank, May 1988.

- Flnancina Education In Developing Countries: An Exploration of Policy Options. Washington: The World Bank, July 1986.

- , Financina Heafth Services In Developing Countries: An Agenda for Reform. Washington: The World Bank, April 1987.

Poverty and Human Development. New York: Oxford University Press, 1981. World Develooment Report, 1980. New York: Oxford University Press, 1980. World Development RePort 1990. New York: Oxford University Press, 1990.
_Page 18_

# **TECHNICAL NOTES ON DATA**

## **Per Capita Income Levels, Adult Uteracy, and** Female **Labor Force Participation (mid-1980s)**

i) World Development Reports, 1987 and 1989, (Basic indicators). The per caoita GNP 1985 $ figures are calculated according to the World Bank Atlas method, using 1983.85 as the base period. (rho use of official exchange rates to convert national<sup>currency figures to the U.S. dollar does not attempt to</sup> measure the relative domestic purchasing powers of currencies.) li) UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1988 (Table 1.3). Lfteracv rates refer to' oercentage of literate population In the age group 15 years and over. lii) World Tables, 1989. Female labor force participation pertains<sup>to female labor force as a percentage</sup> of total labor force.

**Gross Enroment Ratios in Education, Female** En.ollment, **and Total Fertility Rate (mid-1980s)**

i) UNESCO S&atistical Yearbook, 1988 (Table 3.2); and World Development Report, 1989 (Indicators Table 29). Gross enrollment ratio **for** a given level of education<sup>Is obtained by dividing the total enrollment</sup> for that **level of** education, regardless of age, by the population of the age group which according to national regulations should be enrolled at that level. (Hence the ratio will exceed 100<sup>if the actual age distribution</sup> of pupils spreads over outside the official school ages.) These ratios have been calculated taking<sup>into accoun</sup><sup>**t**he differing national systems and the</sup> duratlon of schooling at the first and second level...<sup>At the third level, the figures for the population</sup> aged 20-24 have been used throughout.

Ii) World Development Report, 1987 (Indicators Table 28). Total fertility rate represen **t** s he number of children that would<sup>be born per woman, ifshe were to live to the end of her</sup> childbearing years and bear children at each age in accordance with prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

## **Healh Indlcators (mid-1980s)**

World Development Reports, 1987 (Indicators Table 1), and 1989 (Indicators Tables 32 and 28). Life exoectancv indicates the years a newborn infant would live If patterns<sup>of mortality prevailing</sup> for all people at the **time** of its birth were to stay the same throughou i s life. **t** Infant mortality rate is the number of infants who die before<sup>reaching one year of age, per thousand</sup><sup>**lve**births in a year.</sup> Matemal mortalitv usually refers to the number of female deaths<sup>that occur during childbirth, per 100,000</sup> **live** births. Because 'childbirth' Is defined more widely in some countries,<sup>to Include complications</sup> of pregnancy or of abortion, matemal mortality Is difficul **t** o measura consistently and reliably across countties. (The figures here are<sup>reproduced</sup> from the 1986 WHO publi^ation, 'Maternal Mortality Rates"<sup>supplemented</sup> by UNICEF's 'The State of the World's Children 1989'.) Physicians, Inaddition to tle total number of registered practitioners, Include medical assistants (and 'barefoot doctors') who dispense medical services. Nursina persons include<sup>qualified nurses, as well as paraprofessional</sup> personnel such as first aid worken and x,3ditional birth attendants Because definitions of doctors and nursing personnel vary, the data **are not** strictly comparable across countries.

**Central Govemrmer1 Spiending on Education and** Health **(mid-1980s), and Reai Per Capia Expenditures on Education and Healh (19808D**

I) The data on central govemment finance are from the IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook, 1988. The accounts of each country are reported using a system of common<sup>definitions and classifications</sup> found in the IMF Manual on Govemment Finance Statistics (1986).
_Page 19_ Centra' aovernment expenditure comprises the expenditure by all government offices, departments, establishments, and other bodies that are agencies or Instruments ofthe central authority of a country. It includes both current and capital (development) expenditure. Education exeenditure refers to expenditure on the provision, management, Inspection, and support of pre-primary, primary, and secondary schools; of universities and colleges; and of vocational, tech,nical, and other training institutions. Also included is expenditure on the general administration and regulation of the education system; on research Into its objectives, organization, administration, and methods; and on such subsidiary services as transport, school meals, and school medical and dental services. Health expenditure covers public expenditure on hospitals, maternity and dental centers, and clinics with a major medical component; on natlonal health and medical insurance schemes; and on family planning and preventive care.

ii) Growth Rates of real per capita expenditures (1980-85) are calculated from constant (1980) price series, and have been computed using the least-squares method.

# **Irnrasecloral Emphasis of Central** Govemment's Current Expenditures on Education (mid-1980s)

UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1988 (Tables 4.1-4.3). Current educational excenditure includes expenditure on administration, emoluments of teachers and supporting teaching staff, school books and other teaching materials, scholarships, welfare services, and maintenance of school bulldings.

Salary are emoluments of teaching and administrative staff. Scholarsh **i** p ncludes scholarships as well as provision of teaching materials. Welfare consists mainly of school meals and board. Other expenditure contains administration (other than personnel) and subsidies not distributed.

Studert-Teacher Ratios, by Level of Education (mid-1980s) UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1988 (Tables 3.4, 3.5, and 3.7).

**Dis bubo of** University-Level Education enrollments **by** field (mid-1980s) UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1988 (Tables 3.9 and 3.10). Humanitles: humanitles, religion and theology, education science and teache t **r** aining, and fine and applied arts. Social Science: social and behavioral science, including economics, political science, geography, and psychology. Science and Technoloav: natural science, mathematics and computer science, engineering, architecture, and agriculture. Other: Mass communication, home economics, service trades, and trade, craft, and industrial programs.

**R&D Exendrxures,** and Reseatch Personnel (mid-1980s) UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1988 (Tables 5.19 and 5.4). R&D expenditures refer to all domestic expenditure (current and capital) made for this purpose in the course of a reference year In institutions and established inthe national territory as well as in installations physically situated abroad. R&D Is defined as any creative systematic activity undertaken in order to increase the stock of knowledge, including knowledge of man, culture and society, and the use of this knowledge to devise new applications. It includes fundamental research (i.e. experimental ortheoretical work undertaken with no immediate practical purpose In mind), applied research In such fields as agriculture, medicine, industrlal chemistry, etc. (I.e., research directed primarily towards a special practical aim or objective), and experimental development work leading to new devices, products or processes. Research Personnel. The following categories of scientific and technical personnel are defined according to the work they are engaged In and their qualifications. Scientists and Engineers, comprising persons working in those capacities, I.e. as persons with scientific or technological training (usually completion of third level education) In any field of science, who are engaged in professional work oni R&D activities, administrators and other high-level personnel who direc **t** he execution of R&D activities. Technicians comprising persons engaged In that: capacity in R&D activities who have received vocational ortechnical training in any branch of knowledge or technology of a specified standard (usually at leas **t** hree years after the first stage of second-lev **e** l ducation). Data concerning personnel are normaily calculated In full-tI!m **e** auivalent. This Is a measurement unit representing one person working full-time for a given period; this unit Is used to convert figures relating to the number of part-time workers into the equivalent number of full-time
_Page 20_ workers. Research Personnel presented in the table are full-tlme equivalent and expressed as a proportion of million porpulation.

Data on China and Talwan were supplemented/obtained, respectively, from the following sources: I China Statistical Information and Consultancy Service Center, Beijing, China: Statistics Abstract, 1988. Ii) Republic of China, Council for Economic Planning and<sup>Development,</sup> Taiwan Statistical Data Book, 1988.
Policy Research Working Paper Seres

||Au1hg|DZtor<br>p|Contact<br>a<br>p<br>r|
|---|---|---|---|
|the Debt Crisis?|||31047|
|WPS786 Fiscal Policy for Managing<br>Indonesia's Envi.onment|Sadiq Ahmed|October 1991|B. Prasertwaree<br>82477|
|WPS787 Private Investment Under Macroeco<br>nomic Adjustment in Morocco|- Klaus Schmicid-Hebbe<br>Tobias Muller|l<br>October 1991|S. Jonnakuty<br>39074|
|WPS788 How Expectations Affect Reform<br>Dynamics in Developing Countries|Fran,-esco Daveri|October 1991|S. Jonnakuty<br>39074|
|WPS789 Intrahousehold Inequality and the<br>Theory of Targeting|Lawrence Haddad<br>Ravi Kanbur|October 1991|J. Sweeney<br>31021|
|WPS790 Reforming and Privatizing Hungary's<br>Road Haulage|Esra Bennathan<br>Jeffrey Gutman<br>Louis Thompson|October 1991|B. Gregory<br>33744|
|WPS791 Measuring Real Exchange Rate<br>Instability in Developing Countries:<br>Empirical Evidence and Implications|Lant Pritchett<br>|October 1991|K. Cabana<br>37947|
|WPS792 Reducing Labor Redundancy in<br>State-Owned Enterprises|Jan Svejnar<br>Katherine Terrell|October 1991|B.Gregory<br>33744|
|WPS793 Decollectivization and the<br>Agricultural Transition in Eastern and<br>Central Europe|Karen M. Brooks<br>|October 1991|C. Spooner<br>30464|
|WPS794 How Do National Policies Affect<br>Long-Run Growth? A Research<br>Agenda|William Easterly<br>Robert King<br>Ross Levine<br>Sergio Rebelo|October 1991|R. Martin<br>39065|
|WPS795 Economic Stagnation, Fixed Factors<br>and Policy Thresholds|, William Easterly|October 1991|R. Martin<br>39065|
|WPS796 Excess Liquidity and Monetary<br>Overhangs|Gerard Caprio, Jr.<br>Patrick Honohan|October 1991|W. Pitayatonakarn<br>37666|
|WPS797 Using Field Visits to Improve the<br>Quality of Family Planning, Health,<br>and Nutrition Programs: A Superviso<br>Manual|Richard Heaver<br>r's|October 1991|0. Nadora<br>31091|
|WPS798 Agriculture's Decline in Indonesia:<br>Supply or Demand Determined?|Will Martin<br>Peter G. Warr|October 1991|M. Sanchez<br>33731|
|WPS799 Growth in Open Economies|Sergio Rebelo|November 1991|R. Martin<br>39065|
Policy Research Working Paper Se, jes

||IkIQ|Author<br>Ib||Contact<br>for par|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|WPS800|The Legal Framework for Private<br>Sector Development in a Transitiona<br>Economy: The Case of Poland|Cheryl W. Gray<br>l Rebecca J. Hanson<br>Michael A. Heller<br>Peter lanachokov<br>Youssef Djehane|November 1991|CECSE<br>37188|
|WPS801|Unraveling the Mysteries of China's<br>Foreign Trade Regime: A View from<br>Jiangsu Province|Arvind Panagariya|November 1991|D. Ballantyne<br>37947|
|WPS802|Strengthening the Bank's Population<br>Work in the Nineties|Steven W. Sinding|November 1991|0. Nadora<br>31091|
|WPS803|Financial Regulation: Changing the<br>Rules of the Game|Millard Long<br>Dimitri Vittas|November 1991|W. Pitayatonakarn<br>37666|
|WPS804|Global Trends in Raw Materials<br>Consumption|Boum-Jong Choe|November 1991|S. Lipscomb<br>33718|
|WPS805|Privatization in the Soviet Union:<br>The Beginnings of a Transition|Sergei Shatalov|November 1991|CECSE<br>37188|
|WPS806|Measuring Commercial Bank<br>rEfficiency:Use and Misuse of Bank<br>Operating Ratios|Dimitri Vittas|November 1991|W. Pitayatonakarn<br>37666|
|WPS807|Moderate Inflation|Rudiger Dornbusch<br>Stanley Fischer|November 1991|S. Moussa<br>33490|
|WPS808|The New Trade Protection: Price<br>Effects of Antidumping and<br>Countervailing Measures in the United<br>States|Ann Harrison<br>|November 1991|D. Ballantyne<br>37947|
|WPS809|Openness and Growth: A Time<br>Series, Cross-Country Analysis for<br>Developing Countries|Ann Harrison|November 1991|WDR Office<br>31393|
|WPS810|Poverty and Income Distribution<br>during Adjustment: Issues and<br>Evidence from the OECD Project|Francois Bourguignon<br>Jaime de Melo<br>Christiar, Morrisson|November 1991|D. Ballantyne<br>37947|
|WPS811|Comparative Resource Allocations<br>to Human Resource Development|Peter T. Knight<br>Sulaiman S. Wasty|December 1991|D. Afzal<br>36335|