metadata: authors: 0: author: Bos, Eduard
1: author: Vu, My T.
2: author: Stephens, Patience W.
docna: 0: docna: Sources of World Bank estimates of current
            mortality rates
docty: Policy Research Working Paper
subtopic: Health Care Services Industry,Public Sector Management and Reform,Population & Development,Reproductive Health,Early Child and Children's Health,Law and Justice Institutions
teratopic: Health, Nutrition and Population
abstracts: cdata!: The paper discusses the sources of the
            infant mortality rate (IMR) and life expectancy at birth for
            each of the 186 countries for which the Population and Human
            Resources Department at the World Bank makes demographic
            estimates and projections. Its purpose is to give some
            background on the derivation of mortality estimates used in
            the World Bank's demographic estimates and projections
            to provide users of the data with information on their
            recency and reliability. The paper does this through a
            general discussion of mortality projection methodology and a
            listing of the sources and assumptions used in constructing
            estimates for individual countries. The paper consists of
            two sections: the first section gives an overview of the
            sources, discusses their nature, and explains the projection
            methodology used to obtain current estimates; and the second
            section provides the documentation of mortality sources for
            each country, organized by region.
repnme: repnme: Sources of World Bank estimates of current
            mortality rates
display_title: Sources of World Bank estimates of
            current mortality rates
listing_relative_url: /research/1992/02/699765/sources-world-bank-estimates-current-mortality-rates
topicv3: Human Resources m1326304 1211,Infant and Child Mortality m1326544 1446,Life Expectancy m1504363 2666,Mortality m1504365 3661,Health m1504661 3480
publishtoextweb_dt: 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z
historic_topic: Health, Nutrition and Population
origu: Pop & Human Resources Department
no_of_pages: 27
model_extractions: <!-- Start of picture text --> Policy Research|<br>_~~~~~2M :1 cIi::Mli<br>Population, Health, and Nutritlon<br>WPS 851<br><!-- End of picture text -->

This paper -a product of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division, Population and Human - Resources Department is part of a larger effort in the department to construct and document indicators of human resources development. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Otilia Nadora, room S6-065, extension 31091 (23 pages). February 1992.

Bos, Vu, and Stephens discuss the sources of estimates of the infant mortality rate and life expectancy at birth for each of the 186 countries for which the Population and Human Resources Department of the World Bank makes demographic estimates and projections.

The intention is tc give some background on the derivation of mortality estimates and projections used in the Bank's demographic estimates and projections, so people who use the data know how recent and reliable thcy may be.

assumptions used in constructing estimates for individual countries. They also plan to issue a companion paper on the sources of fertility estimates.

The first section of the paper provides an overview of the sources of data, discusses their nature, and explains the projection methodology used to arrive at current estimates.

In the second section, the authors document mortality data sources for each country, organized by region.

Bos, Vu, and Stephens discuss mortality projec-;on methodology and list the sources and ThePolicy Research Working Paper Seriesdisseminates the findingsof work under way in theBank. Anobjectiveof the sries is to get these fmdings out quickly, evzn if presentations are less than fully polished. The findings, interpretations, and coniclusions in these papers do not necessarily represent official Bank policy.

Produced by the Policy Research Dissemination Center
# Table of Contents

|Introduction|2|
|---|---|
|Frequently used sources|2|
|Constructing quinquennial and single-year mortality rates|3|
|Model life tables|4|
|World Bank projections of mortality indicators|4|
|U.N. Population Division projections of mortality indicators|6|
|How good are current mortality estimates|7|
|References|9|
|Sub-Saharan Africa|10|
|North Africa|13|
|Latin America and the Caribbean|13|
|Northem America|16|
|South, East, and Southeast Asia and Oceania|17|
|Southwest Asia|19|
|Europe and USSR|21|
# Introduction

This paper discusses the sources of the infant mortality rate (IMR) and life expectancy at birth for each of the 186 countries for which the Population and Human Resources Department at the World Bank makes demographic estimates and projections. Its purpose is to give some background on the derivation of mortality estimates used in the World Bank's demographic estimates and projections to provide users of the data with information on their recency and reliability. The paper attempts to do t'iis through a general discussion of mortality projection methodology and a listing of the sources arnd dssumptions usci lii constructing estimates for individual countries, It is envisioned that a companion paper on the sources of fertility estimates will be issued in the future.

The paper consists of two sections. The first section gives an overview of the sources, discusses their nature, and explains the projection methodology used to obtain current estimates. The second section provides the documentation of mortality sources for each country, organized by region.

## _Frequently used sources_

The single most frequently used source for both the IMR and life expectancy at birth for the 1985-89 base period is _World Population Prospects 1990,_ published by the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. This publication contains quinquennial estimates and projections made by the U.N. Population Division for 152 countries for the period 1950 to 2025. The Population Division revises its estimates when new data or analyses become available and issues _World Population Prospects_ biennially. In constructing its estimates, the Population Division considers population censuses, demographic and health surv.-.;s, vital registration data, and uses analyses of others as well as its own. Data are adjusted to achieve consistency among vital rates, age structure, and total population. Demographers at the Werld Bank have a working arrangenent to receive further details concerning the original sources consulted, their quality, and the adjustments applied from the demographers in the Estimates and Projections section of the Population Division. _World Population Prospects 1990_ is the first source considered for Bank estimates of mortality, but other sources are used for the 34 countries for which the U.N. does not make estimates, for countries for which more recent data are available from other sources, and when analysis in the Bank indicates different rates.

Another frequently used source is _Population and Vital Statistics Report,_ which is a quarterly publication of the Statistical Office of the U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. This publication gives the latest official estimates of vital rates from registration data, as well as an indication of the completeness of registration coverage. The reported estimates are sometimes more recent than were consideied by the U.N. Population Division for _World Population Prospects 1990._ Figures appear in _Population and Vital Statistics Report_ even when the registration system is not complete or when rates are internally inconsistent. Bank estimates are taken from this publication only when the U.N. Statistical Office indicates that vital registration is complete (covering at least 90 percent of vital events occurring in a given year). _Population and Vital Statistics Report_ gives registered deaths and registered infant deaths, but not life expectancy figures, which have to be estimated with life tables from the information given for the CDR or IMR or gathered from other sources.

Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Community (EC), annually publishes _Demographic Statistics,_ which includes IMR as well as life expectancy estimates from vital registration systems of the EC member countries. These are mostly very recent estimates, and given the near2
completeness of vital- and population registration systems in the EC member countries, very reliable estimates.

Mortality estimates for other developed countries that are not EC members are often from an annual article wLa conjoncture demographique: LEurope et les pays developpds d'outre-mer* by Alain Monnier in the French journal _Population,_ published by the French Institut National d'gtudes Ddmographiques. These are also mostly recent and reliable registration based estimates and include IMR and life expectancy estimates.

_Tabki_ i. _Frequency of use of sources qf mortlty data_

|Source|.l|**Life**<br>exoectancy|
|---|---|---|
|**U.N. Population**<br>**Division**|**79**|**84**|
|**U.N. Statistical**<br>office|**47**|**39**|
|**Survey or census**<br>|**33**<br>|**24**<br>|
|**U.S.Bureauof**<br>**the Census**<br>**Other**|**13**<br>**26**|**8**<br> <br>**39**|

Surveyrepo,such as those produced _Notes: "Odter" coninsts of Eurostat, Monnier Official_ Survey reports, such as those produced _publications; and Bank aseme Totl does not add_ by the _Demographic and Health Surveys_ (DHS), as _to total_ **_number_** _of_ **_countries,_** _bt ause multiple sources are_ well as census publications are a frequent source of _used_ **_in_** _some cases._ IMR estimates. When surveys or census results have only recently become available, they are often not yet incorporated in U.N. or other sources. DHS data are generally considered to be of high qualitv and are particularly useful because they cover .iany countries which do not otherwise have adequate demographic statistics. DHS reports present IMR and under-five mortality (q5) estimates, from which life expectancy at birth is derived with a model life table.

Mortality estimates for some smnall countries, mostly in the Pacific and the Caribbean, are from a publication of the Center for International Research at the U.S. Bureau of the Census, _World Population Profitle: 1989._ The original sources of the estimates in this publication are not known, and while rates are internally consistent, they may lack a recent empirical basis.

For a fevw countries, estimates are obtained directly from publications issued by country statistical offices. These estimates may be based on vital registration or censuses or surveys and are used when they are mrre recent than those in previously listed sources.

# _Constrwting quinquenni&._ **_-4ut_** _single-year mortality rates_

Mortality estimates constructed by the Population and Human Resources Department of the World Bank are of two kinds: single-year estimates (i.e, 1989 IMR and life expectancy at birth estimates used in _World Development Report 1991)_ and quinquennial estimates (i.e, average rates for the period 1985-89). Trhe choice of procedures used in constructing either type depends largely on the availability of data.

Single-year IMR estimates for countries with complete vital registration systems are generally available from one of the sources listed above (except _World Population Prospects 1990,_ which gives only quinquennial figures). About one-third of all countries for which the Bank makes separate estimatec were classified by the U.N. Statistical Office as having complete vital registration (United Nations, various years). Five-year IMR estimates for the 1985-89 base quinquennium are usually the mean of single-year rates. Life expectancy at birth estimates tend to lag IMR and CDR estimates because life expectancy is a statistical abstraction that needs to be constructed from period 3
age-specific mortality rates. For many countries with complete vital registration, quinquennial life expectancy at birth Egures are estimated from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the bas,s of IMR, CDR, and tiie age disti-ibution. Current or very recent single-year life expectancies for all but a few countries are interpolated between the estimated 1985-89 average life expectancy and the 1990-94 projected life expectancy (See below on how mortality indicators are projected).

For countries without complete vital registration, single-year estimates are interpolations between projetted quinquennial figures. The usual procedure for constructing a current IMR estimate is to use an estimate from any previous time that has been derived from a census or survey, eithler from retrospectively collected birth histories, or more commonly, through indirect estimation techniques such as the Brass methods (United Nations 1990). Life expectancy at birth estimates are frequently derived from IMR and q5 estimates from surveys or censuses with model life tables. As an example of how these procedures work, consider estimates for Indonesia. The DHS conducted in Indonesia yielded an Indirect estimate of the IMR of 72 (calculated with a Brass procedure) for the period 1982-86. This estimaie was then projected with the Bank IMR projection model to 1985-89 and lo 1990-94. A 1989 IMR estimate was obtained through linear interpolation of the 1985-89 and 1990-94 projections. Life expectancy at birth for 1982-86 was obtained by fitting a Coale-Demeny "North" model Wife table ("North" was selected on the basis of prior analysis of the 1980 census) to the IMR and q5 survey estimates, which were subsequently projected with the Bank life expectancy projection model to 1985-89 and 1990-94. A 1989 life expectancy at birth estimate was obtained through linear interpolation of the 1985-89 and 1990-94 projections. While the availability of the latest empirical data differs, the above approach is similar for many countries.

# _Model lWfe tables_

Mortality estimates for many countries are approximated with model life tables constructed by A. Coale and P. Demeny. Model life tables are used here tc estimate the IMR and life expectancy from indirect estimates (Brass procedures) of child mortality, and to estimate life expectancy from registration derived IMR estimates (often in coniunction with CDR and age structure information). Besides Coale-Demeny, the United Nations (1983) has constructed mode' life tables, which are used in some of the estimates obtained from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The Coale-Demeny model life tables are derived from over 300 empirical life tables and consist of four broad patterns of mortality called "families": North, South, East, and West. Within each of the families, mortality ranges from high to low; a recent extension of the Coale-Demeny tables by Coale and Guo (1991) adds life tables for very low mortality populations. The North family, based on Scandinavian life tables, is characterized by relatively low infant and old age mortality, and high adult mortality. The South family, based on Mediterranean country life tables, has relatively high qs, low adult mortality, and high mortality over 65. The East family, primarily based on Central European country life tables, has relatively high infant and old-age mortality, and relatively low child and adult mortality. The West family is based on 130 life tables from countries all over the world which were considered accurate but did not fit the pattern for the three other families. The West family life tables are selected when no information on the pattern of mortality is available.

# _World Bank projections of mortalty indicators_

As noted above, current estimates of mortality are frequently projections of estimates for previous years or periods, and single-year estimates for current years are often interpolations between 1985-89 and projected 1990-94 figures. When current estimates are from _World Populat;on Prospects_ 4
_1990,_ the projections are made by the U.N. Population Division with methodology discussed below; otherwise they a.- Bank projections.

World Bank methodology for projecting mortality indicators is described in detail in Bulatao and Bos (1989). The IMR and life expectancy are projected separately. Life expectancy at birth for males and females separately is projected from previous trends and from socioeconomic factors. Life expectancy at birth is projected from year 0 to year t using a logistic function over time of tCe form et = ko + k / {1 + exp[logit(eo) + rt]}, with logit(eo) = _1og,_ [(ko + k - eo) / (eo - ko)].

The logistic function is set to rise most rapidly from a level of 50 years or so and increasingly slowly at higher levels. The minimum (ko) for the logistic functions for both sexes is assumed to be 20 years, and the maxima (ko + k) are assumed to be 90 for females and 83.3 for males. The rate of change (r) for the logistic function is allowed to vary across countries, and for a given country to vary over time.

For the first quinquennium (1985-90), the rate of change (r,) is estimated from the rate of change in the rrevious uuinquennium (r0) and from the female secondary enrolment ratio (so) using the equations r, = .00379 + .723 ro - .000254 so for females, and r, = .01159 + .885 r0 - .000318 s. for males.

Percent urban is used in a few cases, with a different equation (see Bulatao and Bos 1989), where secondary enrolment is not available, and in fewer cases still the rate of change in the previous decade is used instead of the rate of change in the previous quinquennium when the latter appears to have been affected by exceptional circumstances. Limits are imposed on the rate of change for the first quinquennium (and for all other quinquennia), such that it cannot be greater than -.017 and less than _-.053._ For the second quinquennium, the rate of change is estimated as a function of the rate of change for the first quinquennium: r2 = -.007 + .8 r,.

The rate of change for the third quinquennium is estimated from the rate of change for the second quinquennium in the same way, but none of these projections influences estimates of current rates, which for most countries arc linear interpolations between projections of the first and second quinquennia rates. Table 2 shows how annual increments in life expectancy vary by initial levels of life expectancy. The minimum and maximum increments shown in the table result from the limits imposed on the rates of change.

The infant mortality rate is projected using a similar logistic function. The rate of change for each of the first three quinquennia is obtained from the equation rt = .0275 + .5 rt 1, _5_
|with the restriction that<br>**this**rate must be in the<br>interval<br>I.024,.1301.|_Table 2._|_Assumed an_|_nual inc_|_rements lo l_|_(fe exnecta_|_ncy_||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Theselimits piovide<br>schedlles of minimum|Initial||Males|||Females||
|andnRaximumannual<br>decremnts<br>toinfant<br>decrements<br>to infant<br>|**life**<br>**expec-**<br>tancy|**Minimum**|Medium|Maximum|<br>Minimum|Medium|Maximun|
|murtality, varying by||||||||
|the initial rate, shewn<br>inTlble3.|45<br>45<br>**50**|0.14<br>**t1.1**<br>0.16<br>|<br>0.34<br>**5**0.38<br> <br>0.39<br> <br>|<br>0.55<br> <br>0.61<br> <br>0.63<br> <br>|<br>0.14<br> <br>0.16<br> <br>0.1<br> <br>|<br>0.3<br> <br>0.40<br>7<br>0.4<br> <br>|6<br>0.58<br> <br>0.65<br>3<br>0.69<br> <br>|
||55|0.16|<br>0.39|<br>0.62|<br>0.1|7<br>0.4|4<br>0.70|
|Life tables<br> <br>|60|0.15|<br>0.37|<br>0.59|<br>0.1|7<br>0.4|3<br>0.68|
|are<br>selected<br>from<br>are selected<br>from<br>Coale-Demeny models|**605**<br>**70**<br>75|**0.13**<br>**0.10**<br>0.07|<br>**0.32**<br> <br>**0.26**<br> <br>0.18|<br>**0.52**<br> <br>**0.42**<br> <br>0.28|<br>0.16<br> <br>**0.1**<br> <br>0.12|<br>0.4<br>**4**<br>**0.3**<br> <br>0.2|0<br>0.69<br>**6**<br>**0.57**<br>7<br>0.47|
|that<br>provide<br>the<br> <br> <br>|80<br>|0.03|<br>0.08|<br>0.12|<br>0.09<br>|<br>**0.2**<br> <br>**1**|**1**<br>**C.34**<br> <br> <br>**1**|
|roece<br> <br>e|**-**|||||<br>|<br> <br>|
|<br> <br> <br>pro jected<br>life|||||**.**|<br>**.**|<br>**.**<br>|
|expectancy and infant||||||||
|mortality rates. First, a||||||||

|level of the life tables is chosen to give the desired<br>IMR<br>(an<br>interpolated<br>table<br>is constructed<br>if<br>necessary). Mortality rates up to age 14 are taken<br>|_Table3. Assumed a_<br>_to_**_ifant_**_n_|_nnual decre_<br>_ortalityrate_|_ments_|
|---|---|---|---|
|from this table. Second, another level of the life<br>tables is chosen to give the rates for ages 15 and<br>older such that the desired level of life expectancy is<br>obtained. Among the four Coale-Demeny families,|**Initiaa**<br>**imnfant**<br>**mortatity**<br>rate<br>Minimun|Mediun|Maximun|
|that<br>families<br>is chosen<br>which<br>minimizes<br>the<br>divergencebetween the two chosen levels.<br>divergence|150<br>0.83<br>140<br>**0.92**<br>~~~<br>~<br>~~~~~<br>**1.00**<br>120<br>1.13<br>110<br>1.16<br> <br>|<br>2.08<br> <br>**2.32**<br>~~~~130<br> <br>**2.50**<br> <br>2.63<br> <br>2.69<br> <br>|<br>4.02<br> <br>4.47<br> <br> <br>**4.81**<br> <br>5.03<br> <br>5 15<br> <br>|
|_U.N. Population Division projections of mortak_<br>_indicators_|**100**<br>**1.16**<br>90<br>1.14<br>80<br>1.10<br>70<br>1.03|<br>**2.71**<br> <br>**2.66**<br> <br>2.56<br> <br>2.41|<br>**5.16**<br> <br>**5.07**<br> <br>4.86<br> <br>4.56|
|As many of the mortality estimates are|60<br>0.93<br>50<br>0.81|<br>2.20<br> <br>1.94|<br>4.16<br> <br>3.65|
|from<br>the<br>U.N.<br>Population<br>Division,<br>a<br>brief<br>description of its mortalit.y projection assumptions is<br>included here. The U.N. Population Division model|40<br>0.67<br>**30**<br>**0.50**<br>20<br>0.31<br>10<br>0.09|<br>**1.62**<br> <br>**1.26**<br> <br>0.84<br> <br>0.36|<br>**3.05**<br> <br>**2.35**<br> <br>1.56<br> <br>0.68|
|for projecting mortality is based on an assumed<br>||||
|schedule of age and sex-specific survival rates, which|is obtained from mo|del life ta|bles, or from|
|national life tables when reliable data are available (U|nited Nations 1989).|As in the|World Bank|
|model, improvements in life expectancy are projected d<br>Three variants, 'tast", "middle", and 'slow" are defined t|epended on the initia<br>o project mortality tre|l level of lif<br>nds into th|e expectancy.<br>e future. For|
|particular countries, one of these is selected on the|basis of the initial le|vel of mor|tality and its|
|reported speed of mortality improvements. No defin<br>middle, or fast improvement or how the selection of a s<br>of improvements in life expectancy at birth for each<br>expectancy at birth estimates, the U.N. chooses approp<br>four Coale-Demeny families, and five United Nations (<br>give a maximum male life expectancy of 82.5 and a fe|itiGn is given of wha<br>chedule is made.**TI**<br>of the variants. Bas<br>riate life tables from<br>1983) models. These<br>male life expectancy o|t constitut<br>**ble**4 shows<br>ed on the<br>among nin<br>models are<br>f 87.5.|es past slow,<br>the schedule<br>resulting life<br>e models: the<br>extended to|

6
_How good are current mortality estiualsw_ _Table 4. Assumedfive-year increments to lif e jetany in United Nations Thpulatioq Division projections_

|"Good" mortality<br>estimatesare based on recent|tifes|||||Females||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|empirical<br>data<br>of<br>high|expec-|||||||
|<br> <br>reliability. The main reasons|tancy|Slow|Middle|Fast|Slow|Middle|Fast|
|for estimates not being of|||_|||||
|good quality are:|55.0-57.5|2.0|2.5|2.5|2.0|2.5|2.5|
||57.5-60.0|2.0|2.5|2.5|2.0|2.5|2.5|
|*<br>The observations|600-625<br>|20<br>|23<br> <br>|25<br>|20<br>|25<br>|25<br>|
|<br> <br>on which the estimates are|..<br>62.5-65.0<br>65.0-67.5|.<br>_2.0_<br>1.5|.<br> <br>_2.0_<br>1.5|.<br>2.3<br>2.0|.<br>_2.0_<br>_2.0_|.<br>2.5<br>2.3|.<br>2.5<br>2.5|
|based are too old.<br>This|67.5-70.0<br>|1.0<br>|1.2<br> <br>|1.5<br>|1.5<br>|2.0<br>|2.3<br>|
|happens mainly in countries<br> <br> <br>|70.0-72<br>72.5-75.0|.5 0.<br>0.5|<br>1.0<br>0.8|1.2<br>1.0|1.<br>1.0|1.5<br>1.2|2.0<br>1.5|
|without<br>reliable<br>vital|75.0-77.5|0.3|0.5|0.8|0.8|1.0|1.2|
|registration. Figure 1 shows<br>|80.0-82.5|0.3|0.4|0.5|0.5|0.8|0.8|
|the number of countries by|82.5-85.0|-|||0.3|0.4|0.5|
|the last period for which|85.0-87.5|--|--|-|0.3|0.4|0.5|
|empirical data were considered|Source:<br>Unit|ed<br>Nat|ions1989|||||
|in<br>construction<br>of<br>the<br>estimates. For estimating the||||||||

current IMR, about 60 percent of considered data were collected in 1985 or later. For life expectancy estimates, this percentage was _55. ("N.A."_ indicates that no empirical data were available, or that the date could not be determined from the source from which the estimate was obtained). From this figure, it appears fair to conclude that estimates of the IMR and life expectancy for most countries are based on up-to-date observations. The currentness of sources is expected to improve further in the next few years, when more of thL. over 100 countries that have planned a census around 1990 are anticipated to release results.

The data on which the estimates are based are of l .or quality or are not represe.itative of the entire population. This could result from underregistration of vital events in registers, incomplete coverage in censuses, defective sampling frames used in surveys, misreporting, etc. For vital registration and census data, the U.N. Statistical Office's publication _Population and Vital Statistics Report_ provides an assessment of their completeness. For survey data, no single evaluation source exists, and data have to be checked for internal consistency and agreement with other sources. T'he U.N. Population Division carries out extensive consistency checks and adjusts numbers which appear incompatible with other information. One of the consequences of such adjustment is that short-term trends are often smoothed out. Many of the surveys conducted in the 1970s and 1980s under the guidance of the WFS and DHS programs are considered to be of good quality.

* Methods used are not appropriate for the data. So-called _indirect estimation techniques,_ which are frequently used to calculate mortality estimates from survey and census data, make assumptions about past trends in fertility and mortality that may not be accurate. Resulting rates may be biased up or downwards. When surveys provide both direct and indirect estimates and the differences are large, further caution is advised. Another assumption, both in calculating the IMR from survcoys or censuses as well as in deriving life expectancy from IMR and/or CDR concerns the appropriateness of model life tables. When the mortality pattern of the chosen model life table is different from the actual mortality pattern, estimates will not be correct.

_7_
_Figure 1. Year of kes source considered_ <!-- Start of picture text --> 120<br>110<br>100<br>90<br>20<br>70<br>00<br>6 0<br>20- 00 -<br>10<br>0<br>N.A. Before 1970 1970-79 1980-84 15955 and later<br>Year of latest emp!rIcaIcl data<br>IMR L LIfe expectancy<br><!-- End of picture text --> Adequacy of mortality estimates also depends on what they are being used for. Estimates of the IMR or life expectancy from a few years back often are suitable for an approximate picture of health conditions in a given country. Indirect estimates of the average IMR for the five years preceding a survey may be valuable input in a population projection. lb document short-term fluctuations, and even more so to link them to a changing socioeconomic environment, requires far greater detail than can often be obtained from surveys or censuses.

8
# References

Bulatao, Rodolfo AX and Eduard Bos. 1989. _Projecting Mortality for All Countnes._ World Bank Policy, Resaarch, and External Affairs Working Paper 337. Washington, D.C.

- Coale, Ansley J., and Paul Demeniy, with Barbara Vaughan. 1983. _Regional Model Life Tables ana Stable Populations._ 2nd ed. New York: Academic Press.

- Coale, Ansley J. and Guarig Guo 1991. "The use of new model life tables at very low mortality in population -rojictions." _Population Bulletin of the United Nations,_ No. 30:1-22.

- Eurostat. 1987. _Denmographic Statistics._ Luxembourg: Statistical Office of the European Communities.

- Jamison, Ellen. 1989. _World Popuiation Profile: 1989._ United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

- Monnier, Alain. 1988. "La conjoncture aemographique: L'Europe et les pays developpds d'outremer." _Population_ 43(4-5):893-904.

- United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Various years. _Population and Vital Statistics Report._ New York: United Nations.

- -----. 1983. _Manv al X. Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estintation._ New York: United Nations. -----. 1989. _World Population Prospects 1988._ New York: United Nations.

- -----. 1989. _Guide to the Estimation of Child Mortality._ New York: United Nations. 1991. ------ _World Population Prospects 1990._ New York: United Nations.

9
# Sub-S-hdran Africa

ANGOIA: Both the IMR an, life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. estimates are based on the 1940 census as analyzed by Brass et al. (1966). BENIN: The IMR is a Bank projection from a 1961 national demographic survey. The 1981 World Fertility Survey est.mates for 1977-81 are also considered. Life expectancy at birth is nrrjected from the 1961 survey.

BOTSWANA: Both lifc expectancy estimates and the IMR arc Bank projections from the 1988 Demographic and Health Survey.

BURKINA FASO: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ These estimates are model-derived, based on a 1976 post-enumeration survey.

BURUr' DI: Thi IMR is the direct estimate from the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. Life expectancy a; birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on survey e..ima.es for 1965 and 1970-71, and the 1979 census.

CAMEROON: The IMR and life expectancy estimates are based on a Bank assessment of the 1978 WYorld Fertility Survey, and a projection of the IMR by the U.N.

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimate on a projection of data from a 1959-60 survey and the 1975 census. Life expectancy at birth estimates are Bank projections from the 1975 census.

CHAD: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on an analysis of a 1963 survey.

COMOROS: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 199v._ T he U.N. derived life expectancy estimates from the 1980 census and projected them to 1985-89.

CONGO: The IMR is a Bank projection from the 1984 census. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ and are projections from the 1974 census.

COTE DIIVOIRE: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1978 World Fertility Survey.

DJIBOUTI: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The UJ.N. based its estimates on levels in neighboring countries. EQUATORLAL GUINEA: The IMR is from _World Population Prompects 1990._ It is based on a projection from the 1983 census. Life expectancy at birth estimates are Bank projections from the 1983 census.

ETHIOPIA: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimate on a Coale-Demeney "North" model life table selection on the basis of the situation of the country. Lite expectancy estimates are based on a Bank assessment.

10
GABON: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimate on the 1960-61 census. Life expectancy estimates are World Bank projections from the same census.

GAMBIA, THE: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimate on the 1973 census. Life expectancy estimates are World Bank projections also based on the 1973 census.

GHANA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1988 Demographic and Health I vey.

GUINEA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on a 1955 survey.

GUINEA.BISSAU: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ Life expectancy estimates are World Bank projections based on the assumption that mortality levels are comparable to those in neighboring countries.

KENYA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on tlh 1977 Kenya National Demographic Survey. The 1979 census and the 1989 Demographic and Health Survey are also considered.

LESOTHO: IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimate on the 1977 World Fertility Survey. Life expectancy at birth are Bank projections based on the 1977 survey and the 1976 census.

LIBERIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The IMR estimate is a projection from the 1986 Demographic and Health Survey. Life expectancy estimates are based on the IMR from the 1986 survey and projected to 1985-89. MADAGASCAR: The IMR estimate is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimate on a 1984 survey. Life expectancy at birth is a Bank projection based on the 1984 and a 1980 survey.

MAIARI: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ These estimates are based on extrapolations of the 1982 Malawi Demographic Survey.

MALI: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. derived the estimate through indirect methods from the 1986 Demographic and Health Survey and the 1960-61 Demographic Survey. Life expectancy at birth is a Bank projection derived from the 1960-61 survey and the 1976 census.

MAURITANIA: Both IMR and Life expectancy estimates are Bank projections from _World Population Prospects 1990._ MAURITIUS: Both IMR and life expectancy estimates are from official vital registration from the Bureau of Statistics.

MOZAMBIQUE: The IMR estimate is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ Life expectancy at birth ts a Bank projection from the official CDR.

11
NAMIBIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from<sup>_World Population Prospects 1990._</sup> The U.N. based its estimates on the levels of mortality<sup>in other countries within Southern Africa.</sup> NIGER: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are<sup>from</sup><sup>_World Population Prospects 1990._The</sup> U.N. based its estimates on a 1959-63 survey<sup>and on the 1978 post-enumeration survey.</sup> NIGERIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are<sup>from</sup><sup>_World Population Prospects 1990._</sup> REUNION: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are<sup>from</sup><sup>_World Population Prospects 1990._</sup> The U.N. based its estimates on vital registration<sup>data for 1986 and 1987.</sup> RWANDA: Both the IMR and life expectancy<sup>at birth are from</sup><sup>_World Population Prospects 1990._</sup> These estimates are based on the 1978 census<sup>and a 1983 survey.</sup> SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE: The IMR is a Bank estimate from official estimates<sup>from vital</sup> statistics for 1989, as published in _PVSR._ Life<sup>expectancy estimates are Bank projections based on</sup> official estimates as published in _PVSR Supplement_<sup>_1984._</sup> SENEGAL: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._<sup>It is based on the 1978 National</sup> Fertility Survey and the 1988 Demographic and Health<sup>Survey. Life expectancy is a Bank projection</sup> derived from country life tables.

SEYCHELLES: The IMR is an official estimate<sup>for 1989 from</sup><sup>_Statistical Bulletin._Life expectancy</sup> estimates are Bank projections based on the CDR<sup>and CBRR.</sup> SOMALIA: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects_<sup>_1990._This estimate is based on the 1975</sup> census and a 1980 survey. Life expectancy is a<sup>Bank projection and is consistent with the 1982-86</sup> National Development Plan.

**SOUTH** AFRICA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from<sup>_World Population Prospects_</sup> _1990._ The U.N. estimates are based on adjusted<sup>vital registration data.</sup>

SUDAN: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth<sup>are from</sup><sup>_World Population Prospects 1990._The</sup> U.N. based its estimates on the 1979 Sudan Fertility<sup>Survey and the 1983 census.</sup> SWAZIIAND: Both IMR and life expectancy estimates are Bank<sup>projections based on the 1965,</sup> 1976, and 1986 censuses.

TOGO: Both the IMR ana life expectancy at birth<sup>are from</sup><sup>_World Population Prospects 1990._The</sup> U.N. based its estimates on the 1988 Demographic<sup>and Health Surveys, and on the 1961 and 1971</sup> censuses.

TANZANIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at<sup>birth are Bank projections from the 1978 census.</sup> UGANDA: The IMR is from _World Population_<sup>_Prospects 1990._The U.N. based its estimate on the</sup> 1988/89 Demographic and Health Survey. Life<sup>expectancy estimates are Bank projections, based on</sup> the 1968 census.

ZAMBIA: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990_<sup>The U.N. estimate is based on a</sup> projection of 1980 census data. Life expectancy<sup>at birth estimates are Bank projections from the 1980</sup> census.

12
ZAIRE: The IMR is a Bank projection from the 1984 census. Life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Pro:pects 1990._ The U.N. estimate is based on extrapolations from a 1955-57 survey.

**ZIMBABWE:** Both IMR and life expectancy estimates are Bank projections from the 1988 DHS.

# North Africa

ALGERIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on an official life table for 1985 and projected them to 1985-89 with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario. EGYPT: The IMR is estimated by linear interpolation between the 1980 World Fertility Survey and the 1988 Demographic and Health Survey. Life expectancy at birth estimates is from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ which based its estimates on adjusted registered deaths for 1975-77 and projected them to the 1985-89.

LIBYA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1973 and 1984 censuses. Current estimates are obtained by projecting these estimates with the U.N. medium decline scenario.

**MOROCCO:** The IMR is from the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ and are based on Coale-Demeny "South" model life tables selected on the basis of IMRs from the 1979-80 World Fertility Survey, the 1983-84 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey and the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey.

TUNISIA: The IMR is from the 1988 Demographic and Health Survey obtained through linear extrapolation. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ which are based on adjusted registered deaths through 1988.

# Latin America and the Caribbean

**ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA:** The IMR is projected by linear extrapolation from official estimates for 1980 and 1985, as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is obtained from Coale-Demeny model life tables on the basis of the official CDR and population distribution by age and sex.

ARGENTINA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based their estimates on the adjusted 1980 census and on vital registration, and projected these estimates to 1985-89.

BAHAMAS, THE: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model fife tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

BARBADOS: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is obtained from Coale-Demeny model life tables, based or. the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

13
BELIZE: The IMR is derived from projections of an IMR estimate for 1985 and CDR estimates for 1976 and 1985. Life expectancy at birth is estimated from Coale-Demeny model life tables based on the CDR and age-sex distribution.

BOLIVIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based its estimates on aralysis of the 1976 census as well as on surveys. The IMR and life expectancy at birth were projected to 1985-89 with the U.N. medium scenario. The Demographic and Health Survey (1989) estimate of the IMR was also considered.

BRAZIL: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The IMR estimate is close to the results of the Demographic and Health Survey (1986). Life expectancy and IMR estimates for 1985-89 are as projected by the U.N./CELADE.

CHILE: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE estimates are based on the 1982 census and on vital registration estimates.

COLOMBIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE estimates are based on the 1985 census and the 1986 Demographic and Health Survey, and are consistent with the 1990 Demographic and Health Survey.

COSTA RICA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE estimates are based on current vital registration system estimates.

CUBA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is obtained from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

DOMINICA: The IMR is projected from the trend in official estimates from the vital registration system for 1973 to 1983 and an estimate for 1985 by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Life expectancy at birth is estimated from Coale-Demeny model life tables based on the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE estimate for the IMR is based on the 1986 Demographic and Health Survey. Life expectancy at birth is estimated from model life tables based on the IMR. ECUADOR: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based its estimates on the 1979 World Fertility Survey, the 1982 census, and the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. The U.N. medium mortality decline trend was used to project the estimates to 1985-89.

EL SALVADOR: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based its estimates on the 1978 World Fertility Survey, the 1985 Demographic and Health Survey, and the 1988 Family Health Survey. The U.N. medium mortality decline trend was used to project the estimates to 1985-89.

GRENADA: Both the IMR and CDR are estimated from government sources _(Statistical Digest,_ Economic Affairs Secretariat, and Ministry of Finance) and from estimates of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Life expectancy at birth is estimated from Coale-Demeny model life tables selected on the basis of the official CDR and the age-sex distribution. Current IMR and life expectancy estimates were obtained by Bank projection.

14
GUADELOUPE: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1982 census and the vital registration system. The IMR and life expectancy for 1985-89 were projected with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

GUATEMAIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE used the 1981 census results, projected with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario. The estimates are consistent with the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey.

GUYANA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ These estimates are based on the 1980 census and on current vital registration data, projected with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

HAITI: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based its estimates on an analysis of the 1982 census, the 1981 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, and other surveys. The U.N. medium mortality decline scenario was used to obtain 1985-89 estimates.

HONDURAS: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based its estimates on an analysis of the 1982 National Demographic Survey of Honduras and projected them with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

JAMAICA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based the IMR estimate on the 1989 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey and life expectancy at birth on a 1969-70 life table projected with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

MARTINIQUE: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1982 census and on vital registration data, and applied the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

MEXICO: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based the IMR estimate on the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey and life expectancy at birth on a corresponding model life table. The U.N. medium mortality declire scenario was used to obtain 1985-89 estimates.

MONTSERRAT: An estimate of the IMR for 1979-81 made by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the official CDR, and the 1980 census were used in selecting a Coale-Demeny model life table to estimate current IMR and life expectancy estimates.

NEMIIERLANDS ANTILLES: The IMR is an official vital registration estimate, as published in _PVSR_ 10/1990. Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

PANAMA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ These estimates are based on the 1980 census and the vital registration system, and projected to 198589 with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

PARAGUAY: The IMR is obtained from the 1990 Demographic and Health Survey. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ which are based on the 1982 census.

15
PERU: The IMR is derived from the 1977-78 National Fertility Survey and the 1986 Demographic and Health Survey. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from Coale-Demeny model life tables selected on the basis of the 1981 census.

**SAINT KITTS AND** NEVIS: The IMR and CDR are estimated from government sources (Statistics Office, Planning Unit). The IMR is obtained through linear interpolation. Life expectancy at birth is estimated from Coale-Demeny model life tables selected on the basis of the official CDR and the age-sex distribution.

**SAINT LUCIA:** The IMR estimate is based on interpolation of official vital registration data, as published in PVSR. Life expectancy at birth is estimated from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of official CDR and age-sex distribution of the population.

SURINAME: The IMR and life expectancy at birth estimates are estimated from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of annual vital rates and the age-sex distribution. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1980 census and preliminary results of the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. The current estimates are obtained with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

URUGUAY: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based its estimates on data from the vital registration system through 1987 and on the 1985 census.

VENEZUELA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N./CELADE based its estimates on the 1977 World Fertility Survey and on adjusted vital registration data. Current estimates are obtained by projection with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

VIRGIN! ISLANDS (U.S.): The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are derived from Coale-Demeny model life tables selected on the basis of the CDR and age-sex distribution.

# Northern America

CANADA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth are official projections from _Population Projections for Canada 1984-2006._

**PUERTO RICO:** The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1980 census and the official CDR. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: The IMR is the average of vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _Monthly_ **_Vital_** _Statistics Report._ Life expectancy estimates are obtained from the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

16
# **South, East, and Southeast Asia and Oceania**

**AMERICAN SAMOA:** The IMR is the average from vital registration estimates for 1987 and 1988, as published in _PVSR_ 1/90 and 10/90). Life expectancy at birth is derived from Coale-Demeny model life tables selected on the basis of the IMR and the vital registration based CDR

AUSTRALIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are based on average vital registration data for the period 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ BANGIADESH: The IMR measured by the vital registration system for 1987 is used. Also considered is the 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Survey, which provides retrospective estimates that are consistent **with** the vital registration system. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ and are derived from model life tables selected on the basis of infant and child mortality.

BHUTAN: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ Official estimates of the IMR and Coale-Demeny 'West' model life tables were used.

BRUNEI: The IMR for 1985-89 is the average of vital registration estimates for 1986 and 1988 _(PVSR_ 1/90 and 10/90). Life expectancy at birth is estimated from Coale-Demeny "West" model life tables, using IMR and CDR from vital registration _(PVSR_ 1/90 and 10/90) as inputs.

CHINA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are Bank projections from estimates by Hill (1988) for 1982. The projections are consistent with the results of the 1987 National Population Survey and the 1988 National Family Planning Survey.

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are Bank projections from estimates for 1989 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989).

FIJI: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are Bank projections from estimates for 1989 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989).

**FRENCH POLYNESIA:** Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are Bank projections from estimates for 1989 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989).

GUAM: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are Bank projections from estimates for 1989 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990).

HONG KONG: The IMR is the average of the official estimates based on the vital registration system for 1987 and 1988, as published in _PVSR_ 10/89 and 10/90. Life expectancy at birth is from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ and is calculated from vital registration data through 1987.

INDIA: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ and is based on sample registration data through 1986. Life expectancy at birth is also from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ and is based on sample registration data through 1987, adjusted for incompleteness of registration of all deaths.

INDONESIA: The IMR is derived from an indirect estimate from the 1987 National Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (DHS) for 1982-87, adjusted upwards to account for exclusion of certain high mortality areas. Life expectancy at birth is estimated from Coale-Demeny 'North' model life tables, selected on the basis of 1980 census analysis and the estimated IMR.

17
JAPAN: The IMR and life expectancy at birth are averages for 1986, 1987, and 1988 from vital registration data (Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 'Ibkyo).

KAMPUCHEA, DEM.: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._

**KIRIBATI:** Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are Bank projections from estimates for 1989 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989).

KOREA, DEM. PEOPLE'S REP.: The IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are based on vital registration data through 1987, adjusted for underregistration. The IMR is from the U.N. "Far Eastern" model life table selected on the basis of estimated life expectancy at birth.

KOREA, REP. **OE:** The IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are based on the CDR from the 1987 Continuous Demographic Survey and the sex-age pattern of mortality in the official life table for 1978-79. Infant mortality is based on the estimated life expectancy at birth. LAOS: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ These estimates are based on the 1986 and 1988 Demographic Survey, and Coale-Demeny "West" model life tables.

MACAO: The IMR is average of official estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR_ (10/8710/90). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny "West" model life table selected on the basis of the IMR.

MALAYSIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ They are estimated from vital registration for Peninsular Malaysia through 1985 and official government estimates for Sabah and Sarawak in 1980 and projected to 1985-89.

MALDIVES: The IMR is a Bank projection of an estimate provided by ESCAP (1988); it is consistent with the indirect estimate calculated from the 1990 census. Life expectancy at birth is the corresponding Coale-Demeny "West" model life table estimate and is consistent with the 1990 census indirect estimate.

MONGOLIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ Life expectancy at birth is based on official estimates of the CDR through 1986 and a United Nations estimate of a general pattern model life table. The IMR is based on the United Nations general model life table and life expectancy at birth.

MYANMAR: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ These estimates are based on analysis of the 1983 census, projected with the U.N. medium decline scenario to 1985-89.

NEPAL: The IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The IMR is based on the Demographic Sample Survey of 1986/87 and projected with the U.N. medium decline model. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from corresponding model life tables.

NEW CALEDONIA: The IMR and life expectancy at birth are Bank projections from estimates for 1989 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989).

13
NEW ZEALAND: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are based on average vital registration data for the period 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ PAPUA NEW GUINEA: The IMR is from ESCAP 1988 and is based on analysis of the 1980 census. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990_ and are based on indirect estimates from the 1980 census, projected with the U.N. slow mortality decline pattern.

PHILIPPINES: The IMR is from _World Population Prospects 1990._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are based on Coale-Demeny "West" model life tables selected on the basis of the IMR.

SINGAPORE: The IMR is an official estimate for 1987 from vital registration, as published in _PVSR_ (1/89). Life expectancy at birth is from _World Population Prospects 1° .._ d is based on vital registration data through 1988.

SOLOMON ISLANDS: Life expectancy at birth estimates are Bank projections from official estimates from the 1986 census for 1980-84. The IMR is derived from a corresponding Coale-Demeny "West" model life table.

SRI LANKA: The IMR is projected from the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey estimate for 1983-87 and is consistent with vitai registration estimates of 1986-88 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990_ and are based on vital registration estimates projected with the U.N. medium decline model.

TAIWAN, CHINA: Life expectancy at birth is est'mated from the official CDR and age-sex distribution as published in the Tbiwan Statistical Data Book 1987. The IMR is from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1989) and corresponds to the life expectancy at birth estimates in Coale-Demeny "East" model life tables.

THAILAND: The IMR is projected from the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey estimate for 1983-87. Life expectancy at birth estimates are government projections and are consistent with model life table estimates based on the IMR.

TONGA: The IMR is from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1989). Life expectancy at birth estimates are corresponding Coale-Demeny "West" model life table estimates.

VANUATU: The IMR is a Bank projection from an official estimate derived from the 1979 census. Life expectancy at birth estimates are corresponding Coale-Demeny "West" model life table estimates.

VIETNAM: The IMR is an internolation of an estimate derived from the 1976 census (King and Vu 1979) and a 1989 census indirect estimate. The 1988 Vietnam Demographic Survey estimate was also considered. Life expectancy at birth are Coale-Demeny "West" model life table estimates corresponding to the estimated IMR.

WESTERN SAMOA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are Bank projections from official estimates for 1986 as published by ESCAP, 1988.

# **Southwest Asia**

19
AFGHANISTAN: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The current estimates are obtained by projection with the U.N. slow mortality decline scenario.

BAHRAIN: The IMR and life expectancy estimates are Bank projections from official estimates from the 1981 census for Bahrain and non-Bahrain citizens separatkly, as published by the Central Statistical Organization.

CYPRUS: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1980-81 Multi-round Demographic Survey and on the Demographic Reports of 1984 and 1986. The current estimates are obtained by projection with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

**GAZA STRIP:** Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth estimates are obtained from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1987). These estimates are based on official data published in Israel. Current estimates are projections by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

IRAN: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth estimates are Bank estimates based on the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1989). The 1973-76 Population Growth Survey provided the last reliable data. Also considered were the 1986 census and 1989 Demographic Survey.

IRAQ: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. estimates are based on a 1974-75 survey and the 1977 census. Current estimates are obtained by projection with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

ISRAEL: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is from _World Population Prospects 1990,_ and is based on vital registration data through 1986.

JORDAN: The IMR estimates are from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and are based on the 1967 World Fertility Survey, the 1981 Demographic Survey, the 1982 Manpower Survey and the 1983 Family Health Survey. Life expectancy estimates are based on the CDR and the age-sex distribution.

KUWAIT: The **1vIMR** is an average estimate of official vital registration data for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990_ and are based on vital registration data throu-1h 1987.

LEBANON: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1971 National Fertility and Family Planning Survey and the 1970 census. Current estimates are obtained on the assumption of no change in mortality.

OMAN: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. estimates are based on the 1986 Child Mortality Survey. Current estimates are obtained by projection with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

QATAR: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on a 1981 survey and the 1986 census. Current estimates are obtained by projection with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

SAUDI ARABIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. considered the 1974 census and obtained current estimates by projection with the U.N. medium mortality decline scenario.

20
SYRIA: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1976-78 Fertility Survey and the 1981 census.

TURKEY: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are official estimates, as published in _Social Indicators._ These data are based on the 1988 Population and Health Survey and several other surveys.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Both the IMR and life expectancy at birth are fror.: _World Population Prospects 1990._ The U.N. based its estimates on the 1975 and 1980 censuses. The U.N. medium mortality decline scenario was used to obtain current estimates.

YEMEN. Estimated IMR and life expectancy at birth are weighted averages for former Yemen Arab Republic and Democratic Yemen. For Yemen Arab Republic, the IMR and life expectancy are World Bank estimates based on the 1979 World Fertility Survey and 1986 census. For Democratic Yemen, the estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._

# Europe and U.S.S.R.

ALBANIA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration based estimates for 1985 to 1989, as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ AUSTRIA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques (1990) and _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is from Coal--Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

BELGIUM: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurts,at (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

BULGARIA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1988 as published by _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ CHANNEL ISLANDS: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

CZECHOSLOVAKIA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1988 as published by _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ DENMARK: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is fromn Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

FINLAND: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1988 as published by Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques (1990) and _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

21
FRANCE: The IMR is the average of official vi'il registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution. GERMANY: Estimated IMR and life expectancy at birth are weighted averages for former German Federal Republic and German Democratic Republic. The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Ceale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distr!ltution.

GREECE: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1988 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

HUNGARY: The 'MR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ ICELAND: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1988 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ IRELAND: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

ITALY: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

LUXEMBOURG: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

MALTA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1988 as published in _PYSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ NETHERLANDS: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR rjnd age-sex distribution.

NORWAY: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1988 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ POLAND: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1986 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

**PORTUGAL:** The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

22
ROMANIA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ SPAIN: The IMR is tl'* average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1988 as published by Eurestat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

SWEDEN: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ SWITZERIAND: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

UNITED KINGDOM: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published by Eurostat (1990). Life expectancy at birth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

YUGOSIAVIA: The IMR is the average of official vital registration estimates for 1985 to 1989 as published in _PVSR._ Life expectancy at tIirth is from Coale-Demeny model life tables, selected on the basis of the official CDR and age-sex distribution.

U.S.S.R.: The IMR is the average of official estimates from 1985 to 1988 as published by Blum and Pressat, 1987, and in _PVSR_ 10/90. Life expectancy at birth estimates are from _World Population Prospects 1990._ 23
**Policy Research Working Paper Series**

||**Title**|**Author**|**Date**|**Contact**<br>**for paper**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|WPS828|How the Macroeconomic Environme<br>Affects Human Resource<br>Development|nt Arvil Van Adams<br>Robert Goldfarb<br>Terence Kelly|Janua.ry 1992|V. Charles<br>33651|
|WPS829|Regulation of Securities Markets:<br>Some Recent Trends and Their<br>Implications for Emerging Markets|Terry M. Chuppe<br>Michael Atkin|January 1992|F. Harbottle<br>39616|
|WPS830|Fixed Parity of the Exchange Rate<br>and Economic Performance in the<br>CFA Zone: A Comparative Study|Ibrahim Elbadawi<br>Nader Majd|January 1992|V. Barthelmes<br>39175|
|WPS831|Real Overvaluation, Terms of Trade<br>Shocks, and the Cost to Agriculture<br>in Sub-Saharan Africa|Ibrahim Elbadawi<br>|January 1992|V. Barthelmes<br>39175|
|WPS832|Sustainability and the Economics<br>of Assuring Assets for Future Gener|Richard B. Norgaard<br>ations|January 1992|J. Shin Yang<br>81418|
|WPS833|Stabilization and Growth Recovery<br>in Mexico: Lessons and Dilemmas|Daniel F. Oks|January 1992|L. Franchini<br>38835|
|WPS834|Scenarios for Growth in the 1 990s|Shahrokh Fardoust<br>Jian-Ping Zhou|January 1992|J. Queen<br>33740|
|WPS835|Commodity Stabilization Funds|Patricio Arrau<br>Stijn Claessens|January 1992|S. King-Watson<br>31047|
|WPS836|Sources of Income Inequality in Rura<br>Pakistan:ADecomposition Analysis|l Richard H. Adams, Jr.<br>Harold Alderman|January 1992|C. Spooner<br>30464|
|WPS837|Manpower Planning in a Market<br>Economy with Labor Market Signals|Arvil Van Adams<br>John Middleton<br>Adrian Ziderman|January 1992|S. Khan<br>33651|
|WPS838|Measuring Trade Policy Intervention<br>A Cross-Country Index of Relative<br>Price Dispersion|: Brian J. Aitken|January 1992|R. Martin<br>39065|
|WPS839|Regional Integration Under VERs:<br>When Trade Diversion is Unambiguo<br>Beneficial|David G. Tarr<br>usly|January 1992|D. Ballantyne<br>37947|
|WPS840|Public Sector Debt, Fiscal Deficits,<br>and Economic Adjustment: A<br>Compa,ative Study of Six EMENA<br>Countries|Alfredo E. Thorne<br>Azita Dastgheib|January 1992|L. Ly<br>37352|
|WPS841|How Access to Contraception Affects<br>Fertility and Contraceptive Use in<br>Tunisia|Susan Cochrane<br>David K. Guilkey|January 1992|0. Nadora<br>S6-065|
**Policy Research Working Paper Series**

|**Title**|**Author**|**Date**|**Contact**<br>**for paper**|
|---|---|---|---|
|WPS 842 Capital Flows to South Asia and<br>ASEAN Countries: Trends,<br>Determinants, and Policy Implicatio|lshrat Husain<br>Kwang W. Jun<br>ns|January 1992|S. King-Watson<br>31047|
|WPS843 How Financial Markets Affect Long-<br>Run Growth: A Cross-Country Study|Ejaz Ghani<br>|January 1992|A. Nokhostin<br>34150|
|WPS844 Heterogeneity, Distribution, and<br>Cooperation in Common Property<br>Resource Management|Ravi Kanbur|January 1992|WDR Office<br>31393|
|WPS845 Inflation Stabilization in Turkey:<br>An Application of the RMSM-X Model|Luc Everaert<br>|January 1992|B. Mondestin<br>36071|
|WPS846 Incorporating Cost and Cost-<br>Effectiveness Analysis into the<br>Development of Safe Motherhood<br>Programs|Larry Forgy<br>Diana M. Measham<br>Anne G. Tinker|January 1992|0. Nadora<br>31091|
|WPS847 Coping with the Legacies of<br>Subsidized Mortgage Credit in<br>Hungary|Silvia B. Sagari<br>Loic Chiquier|January 1992|M. Guirbo<br>35015|
|WPS848 How EC 1992 and Reforms of the<br>Common Agricultural Policy Would<br>Affect Developing Countries' Grain Tr|Meriinda D. lngco<br>Donald 0. Mitchell<br>ade|February 1992|P. Kokila<br>33716|
|WPS849 Financial Structures and Economic<br>Development|Ross Levine|February 1992|W. Pitayatonakarn<br>37666|
|WPS850 Fiscal Adjustment and the Real<br>Exchange Rate: The Case of Bangla|Kazi M. Matin<br>desh|February 1992|D. 3allantyne<br>38004|
|WPS851 Sources of World Bank Estimates<br>of Current Mortality Rates|Eduard Bos<br>My T. Vu<br>Patience W. Stephens|February 1992|0. Nadora<br>31091|
|WPS852 How Health Insurance Affects the<br>Delivery of Health Care in Developing<br>Countries|Joseph Kutzin<br>Howard Barnum|Fsbruary 1992|0. Nadora<br>31091|
|WPS853 Policy Uncertainty, Information<br>Asymmetries, and Financial<br>Intermediation|Gerdrd Caprio|February 1992|W. Pitayatonakarn<br>37664|