metadata: authors: 0: author: Vinck,Patrick Thierry
1: author: O’Mealia,Thomas
2: author: Wei,Carol
3: author: al-Saiedi,Abdulrazzaq
4: author: Irwani,Muslih
5: author: Pham,Phuong Ngoc
count: Iran, Islamic Republic of,Philippines,Uganda
docna: 0: docna: Displacement and Social Empowerment :
            Evidence from Surveys of IDPs in Iraq, the Philippines, and Uganda
docty: Policy Research Working Paper
abstracts: cdata!: Understanding the conditions under which
            displaced persons become actively engaged in social and
            political life is critical to building durable solutions to
            displacement. To do so, this paper analyzes original surveys
            that sample IDPs and similarly at-risk but not displaced
            populations in Iraq (2019), the Philippines (2010), and
            Uganda (2007 and 2010). Variation in the type and degree of
            engagement across contexts suggest that the relationship
            between displacement and empowerment is mediated by
            contextual factors. To better understand the mechanisms and
            grapple with the non-random nature of displacement, the
            analysis explores temporal variation in Uganda, where the
            relationships change over time within the same case, and use
            matching models in the Philippines and Iraq to explore
            whether differences in the displacement experience (urban v.
            rural, camp based versus non-camp-based displacement)
            influence levels of engagement. Displacement experience is
            positively associated with some manifestations of
            empowerment compared to control groups, but inconsistently
            across contexts. Finally, the paper explores heterogeneity
            among IDPs within cases based on the context of their
            dis-placement, finding a consistent negative association
            between camp-based displacement and perceptions of
            empowerment. The results have important implications for
            humanitarian policy in contexts of forced displacement.
display_title: Displacement and Social Empowerment
            : Evidence from Surveys of IDPs in Iraq, the Philippines,
            and Uganda
listing_relative_url: /research/2022/04/33802786/displacement-social-empowerment-evidence-surveys-idps-iraq-philippines-uganda
topicv3: Forced Displacement m1326032 740,Social Cohesion m1327189 738,Conflict and Violence m1327549 2433
publishtoextweb_dt: 2022-04-26T00:00:00Z
dois: 10.1596/1813-9450-10022
origu: Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
author_keys: 0: author_key: 1126752
1: author_key: NA
2: author_key: NA
3: author_key: NA
4: author_key: NA
5: author_key: 1988518
model_extractions: Policy Research Working Paper 10022 Displacement and Social Empowerment Evidence from Surveys of IDPs in Iraq, the Philippines, and Uganda _Patrick Vinck Thomas O’Mealia Carol Wei Abdulrazzaq al-Saiedi Muslih Irwani Phuong N. Pham_ Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice April 2022
Policy Research Working Paper 10022

# **Abstract**

Understanding the conditions under which displaced persons become actively engaged in social and political life is critical to building durable solutions to displacement. To do so, this paper analyzes original surveys that sample IDPs and similarly at-risk but not displaced populations in Iraq (2019), the Philippines (2010), and Uganda (2007 and 2010). Variation in the type and degree of engagement across contexts suggest that the relationship between displacement and empowerment is mediated by contextual factors. To better understand the mechanisms and grapple with the non-random nature of displacement, the analysis explores temporal variation in Uganda, where the relationships change over time within the same case, and use matching models in the Philippines and Iraq to explore whether differences in the displacement experience (urban v. rural, camp based versus non-camp-based displacement) influence levels of engagement. Displacement experience is positively associated with some manifestations of empowerment compared to control groups, but inconsistently across contexts. Finally, the paper explores heterogeneity among IDPs within cases based on the context of their dis-placement, finding a consistent negative association between camp-based displacement and perceptions of empowerment. The results have important implications for humanitarian policy in contexts of forced displacement.

This paper is a product of the Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at pvinck@hsph.harvard.edu.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
# Displacement and Social Empowerment: Evidence from Surveys of IDPs in Iraq, the Philippines, and Uganda<sup>*</sup>

Patrick Vinck,<sup>†‡</sup> Thomas O’Mealia,<sup>§</sup> Carol Wei<sup>¶</sup> , Abdulrazzaq al-Saiedi,<sup>||</sup> Muslih Irwani,<sup>**</sup> and Phuong N. Pham<sup>††</sup>

## **_JEL Codes:_** D74, F22, C83, N47, N45, O15, R23

## **_Keywords:_** Displacement, IDPs, Social Cohesion, Political Empowerment, Surveys

> *Vinck and O’Mealia are co-first authors. Acquisition of the data used in this manuscript was supported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands (Iraq), the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation (Uganda) and the World Bank and World Food Programme (Philippines). The funders played no role in the analysis, interpretation or writing of the results and decision to submit the manuscript.

This paper was commissioned by the World Bank Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice as part of the activity “Preventing Social Conflict and Promoting Social Cohesion in Forced Displacement Contexts.” The activity is task managed by Audrey Sacks and Susan Wong with assistance from Stephen Winkler. This work is part of the program “Building the Evidence on Protracted Forced Displacement: A Multi-Stakeholder Partnership”. The program is funded by UK aid from the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), it is managed by the World Bank Group (WBG) and was established in partnership with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The scope of the program is to expand the global knowledge on forced displacement by funding quality research and disseminating results for the use of practitioners and policy makers. This work does not necessarily reflect the views of FCDO, the WBG or UNHCR.

- †Assistant Professor, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and Harvard Medical School, USA

- ‡Corresponding author

- §PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, University of Michigan, USA

- ¶Research Consultant, Department of Emergency Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, USA ||Fellow and Visiting Scientist, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, USA

- **Associate Professor of Public and Social Policy, American University of Iraq – Baghdad, Iraq

- ††Assistant Professor, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and Harvard Medical School, USA
# **1 Introduction**

The number of forcibly displaced persons globally has doubled since 2010 (UNHCR 2020). When people flee their homes in the face of violence, they arrive in new and potentially fraught local political contexts even if they stay within their country of origin.<sup>1</sup> Considering that one percent of the world population is currently displaced and ten percent of the world population lives in zones of ongoing conflict, the complex nexus of violence, forced migration, social engagement and political behavior is central to understanding how communities and individuals respond to the trauma associated with displacement as well as how to promote social cohesion in post-conflict contexts.

Whether displaced persons feel empowered to participate in social and political life is crucial to promoting social cohesion between displaced and host communities, especially as IDPs face increasingly prolonged displacement (Milner & Loescher 2011). The extent to which IDPs have opportunities for equal participation and voice in local planning, alongside host populations contributes to integration and mutually beneficial collaboration with host communities and others. This, in turn, is seen as an important step toward durable solutions to displacement (Harild & Christensen 2010). In this paper, we analyze the conditions under which IDPs feel socially empowered and become politically engaged in the contexts in which they (re-)settle. Specifically, we ask when and why displaced persons become (or refrain from becoming) actively involved in the communities or the conditions under which displaced persons perceive themselves as socially and politically empowered?<sup>2</sup> 1We employ the following definitions for different types of displacement to ensure analytical consistency: refugees are “someone who has been forced to flee his or her country because of persecution, war or violence.” Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are “someone who has been forced to flee their home but never cross an international border.” Returnees are “someone who was of concern to UNHCR when outside theiThe extent to which IDPs have opportunities for equal participation and voice in local planning, alongside host populations or those in their home areas who never left or returned earlier contributes to integration and mutually beneficial collaboration with host communities and others. This, in turn, is seen as an important step toward durable solutions to displacement country of origin and who remains so for a limited period (usually two years) after returning home to their country of origin. It also applies to internally displaced persons who return home to their prior place of residence.” These categories are in contrast to migrants, “someone who leaves their country purely for economic reasons unrelated to the refugee definition, or in order to seek material improvements in their livelihood.”

> 2We define social empowerment as possessing a sense of agency as an individually, socially, and/or politically. We define political engagement broadly, including classic behaviors (such as voting) and more context specific behaviors (such as joining associations, discussing politics, or attending political meetings). We define political empowerment as the perception that an individual is able to contribute to their community and social empowerment as perceiving a sense of personal agency in a given social context.

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Participation and perceptions of empowerment are core elements of social cohesion.<sup>3</sup> Jenson (1998) describes five dimensions of social cohesion: belonging/isolation, inclusion/exclusion, participation/non-involvement, recognition/rejection, and legitimacy/illegitimacy. The extent to which individuals feel empowered to participate in both the social and political life is – at least partially – a manifestation of all five dimensions of social cohesion. Especially in the context of displacement, where the sudden influx may cause a backlash effect among host populations towards displacees (Dinas, Matakos, Xefteris & Hangartner 2019, Marbach & Ropers 2018, Hangartner, Dinas, Marbach, Matakos & Xefteris 2019), the ability to participate and feel empowered is an important step to building more sustainable livelihoods and may help lessen tension between displaced and non-displaced communities. Promoting empowerment among displaced communities may also help alleviate some of the mental (Pham, Fozouni, Al-Saiedi, Coughlin & Vinck 2021), social (Stevens 2016), and political stress on these communities (Carrillo 2009).

We examine when and why displacees become politically and socially engaged by analyzing a number of surveys of IDPs and relevant comparison groups in Iraq, the Philippines, and Uganda.<sup>4</sup> We collected these surveys in a series of projects between 2005 and 2019 analyzing the political, social, and health consequences of large scale forced displacement crises within each case. By bringing these data together, we explore how IDPs behave in and perceive their environments across different political systems, time periods, and continents. Unifying these contextually specific surveys into a single project enables us to focus on which findings (or do not) translate across contexts while respecting the specifics of the displacement experience within each case.

The insights from our surveys advance our understanding of the behavioral consequences of displacement in a number of ways. The overwhelming majority of existing research on the political and social ramifications of displacement focuses on refugees in the global North,<sup>5</sup> despite the fact that 85% of refugees were hosted in developing countries (UNHRC 2019). Out of 79.5 million total forcibly displaced persons in the world in 2019, 45.7 million were IDPs (UNHCR 2019). We bring to bear original survey evidence from countries and subnational regions with especially large and consequential clusters of IDPs. In doing so, we have amassed an usually large and diverse body

> 3We define social cohesion, in line with De Berry & Roberts (2018), as “the set of relationships between and individuals and groups in a particular environment and between those individuals and groups and the institutions that govern them in a particular environment” (28).

> 4Additionally, we discuss a survey we conducted in Colombia in supplemental material that is not included here due to differences in the survey design and content that limit comparison, but nevertheless provide additional insights into our research question.

> 5For a discussion on the imbalance between displacement loads and the geographic focus of research on the consequences of displacement, see Alrababa’h, Dillon, Williamson, Hainmueller, Hangartner & Weinstein (2021).

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of evidence from which to evaluate the behavioral ramifications of displacement in the contexts in which internal displacement is most prevalent.

Our research contributes to a growing body of evidence on the consequences of displacement for political and social behavior. Our results are consistent with Denny, Dow, Levy & VillamizarChaparro (2021), who show that experiences with extortion increased downstream participation in Guatemala. We also demonstrate that in certain cases and across some indicators displacement experience increases subsequent political and social engagement, but we caution that our results suggest that contextual factors structure these relationships and that different manifestations of engagement may have different relationships with displacement experience. In line with the findings in Pham, O’Mealia, Wei, Bindu, Makoond & Vinck (2021), who show that hosting displaced persons differentially impacts perceptions of social cohesion based on the type of displacee hosted and based on the gender of the host, we highlight the complexity and heterogeneity of the relationships between displacement and social cohesion.

The rest of the paper is divided into 5 parts. In Section 2, we describe the contexts of displacement that our surveys capture; in Section 3, we situate the experience of forced displacement in the broader literature on the behavioral ramifications of experiences of trauma (Section 3.1) before presenting a theory of why the experience of forced displacement can increase perceptions of social and political empowerment (Section 3.2). We then describe our research design in Section 4 before presenting our results in Section 5. Finally, we conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for policy and programs seeking to build social cohesion in forced displacement contexts in Section 6.

# **2 Contexts**

In addition to differences in personal experiences driven by chance, gender, age, and other demographic characteristics, an individual’s experience of displacement likely varies according to the institutional and regional context in which their displacement occurs. In this section, we describe the contexts in which we conducted surveys and the analytical opportunities and challenges that these contexts provide.<sup>6</sup> We analyze the experiences of displaced persons in three contexts: Mosul, Iraq; Central Mindanao, Philippines; and Acholi, Uganda. Table 1 provides descriptive characterizations of the contexts that we analyze at the time of enumeration.

> 6In this section, we focus on the broader context of violence, displacement, and politics, not the specifics of the survey design. Additional details on each surveys’ sampling scheme and enumeration procedures are available in Section 4 and in the Appendix, Section A.1.

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||**_Iraq_**|**_Philippines_**|**_Uga_**|**_nda_**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Enumeration Year|2019|2010|2007|2010|
|Sample Size|5,409|3,263|1404|2,498|
|% Ever Displaced in Sample|81.8%|45.2%|92%|80.5%|
|Relevant Control Groups|Mosul residents|Central Mindanao Population|Acholi Population|Acholi Population|
|Geographic Scope|Nineveh/Mosul|Central Mindanao|Acholi|Acholi|
|V-Dem Categorization|Electoral autocracy|Electoral democracy|Electoral autocracy|Electoral autocracy|

Table 1: Descriptive Characteristics of Contexts in Year of Survey In northern Iraq, forced displacement at the time of the survey in this population was the result of the Islamic State (IS) targeting of civilians, particularly minorities, for forced conversion, mass killing, abduction, and sexual slavery. Between 2014 and 2017, jihadists from IS seized vast areas of northern Iraq before, ultimately, being defeated by an Iraqi-led coalition after a brutal civil war. We focus especially on IDPs area around Mosul in Iraq, where most of the IDPs stayed within city limits throughout the conflict (Revkin 2021) or went to displacement camps outside city limits. Despite the territorial defeat of IS, sectarian divisions and mistrust in the Iraqi Government persisted and undermined return and resettlement efforts (Al-Saiedi, Coughlin, Irwani, Khalil, Pham & Vinck 2020). As such, at the time our survey, a large proportion of IDPs remained displaced both in camps and within Mosul.

In the Philippines, we focus on Central Mindanao. Muslim-dominated conflict-affected areas in the Mindanao have the highest poverty levels and the lowest levels of human development in the Philippines (Adriano & Parks 2013). A longstanding conflict between the Government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front over demands of self-determination, and complicated by political power struggles at the local level, often in the form of clan conflicts known as _rido_ , created cyclical IDP flows. In the immediate period before our surveys, renewed military operations in 2003 displaced at least 411,000 individuals and then, in 2008, the collapse of GPH-MILF negotiations over the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MoA-AD) once again displaced hundreds of thousands individuals (Vinck & Bell 2011). Our surveys were conducted in the immediate aftermath of this period.

In northern Uganda, forced displacement at the time of the survey was driven by the conflict between the government and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a violent rebel group known for its atrocities and abductions. The conflict with the LRA began in 1987 as a rebellion against President Yoweri Museveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) and its efforts to consolidate control over northern parts of the country. Rejected by the population and local leaders, the LRA increasingly turned violent against the civilians (Pham, Vinck & Stover 2008). Predatory behaviors by government forces and an encampment policy contributed to mass displacement (JIPS 2012).

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An estimated 90% of the population of the population of northern Uganda was uprooted throughout the conflict, with the majority of IDPs living in squalid displacement camps, sometimes for as long as a decade (Brookings 2010). Our Uganda surveys thus capture perceptions at two key junctures in the displacement crisis in northern Uganda: during ongoing violence (2007) and as resettlement efforts began after the LRA fled to neighboring countries (2010).

Together, these three contexts are united in that they experienced large scale forced displacement due to ongoing on recently ended episodes of wide-scale political violence. The displacement in all contexts analyzed in this paper was overwhelmingly internal and driven by violence. As such, the theoretical and empirical scope of the paper does not include cross-border refugee flows or economic migration, which likely have distinct causes and consequences. We are instead able to examine the consequences in behaviors and perceptions of experiencing internal displacement across the cases.

Differences in the character and stage of violence that caused the displacement waves across contexts that may limit direct comparisons while also providing analytically useful variation to draw on. Each survey focuses on subnational geographic units: Mosul city in Iraq, Central Mindanao region in the Philippines, and the northern Acholi districts in Uganda. When we conducted our surveys, ISIS has recently been defeated and fled Mosul, so our Iraq sample is recently postviolence. Similarly, our 2007 sample for Uganda took place recently post-violence and during on-going peace talks. In contrast, the 2010 Uganda sample took place after the peace negotiations collapsed, but violence had not resumed after the Lord’s Resistance Army fled to neighboring South Sudan and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Our survey in the Philippines occurred as violence was ongoing in Central Mindanao.

The perpetrators of the violence also varied across the contexts in ways that may have implications for how willing or able an IDP to participate in their local community. In Iraq, the population we surveyed had recently lived under ISIS rule for 3 years and recently experienced the battle where government and coalition forces retook Mosul. In northern Uganda, fighting between the government and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) caused massive displacement. By one count, some 90% of the population in northern Uganda was been uprooted due to this fighting (Miller 2007). In the Philippines, cyclical local-level clan conflicts (known as _rido_ ) and civil war co-existed and produced large levels of displacement within Central Mindanao. The ethnic diversity in the regions we sample from also varies: Acholi district in Uganda is homogenous and our sample Philippines is mostly homogenous because of the relatively restricted geographic scope of our enumeration area. Mosul is a diverse city, with a number of ethnic and religious groups represented.

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Finally, there are important macro-level differences in political systems that influence how willing or able a person may be to participate in political and social life in the context of their displacement. The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project categorized Iraq and Uganda as electoral autocracies<sup>7</sup> in the year of our surveys; in contrast, the Philippines was considered electoral democracies at the time of enumeration.<sup>8</sup> In Figure 1, we plot the three contexts according to their Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) scores for Civil Liberties (y-axis)<sup>9</sup> and levels of violence (x-axis)<sup>10</sup> to visualize the civic space in each context to participate in society as well as a proxy for the fear of violence they might have for participating. Higher scores indicate better security and civil liberties conditions, respectively.

Figure 1 shows that, unsurprisingly, levels of physical violence and civil liberties are highly related. It also highlights the meaningful differences in the contexts that we analyze in potential costs to participation as well as ease of entry into civic life. Iraq scores the lowest on both, indicating that it is the most violent context and the context with the least civic space, followed by Uganda, and the Philippines, respectively.

Given these differences, we expect that any consistency we find across cases is likely to generalize to other internal forced displacement contexts. That said, we only seek to explain these dynamics in contexts of internal displacement; refugee experiences, economic migrants, and other forms of migration are beyond the scope of this paper. Inconsistency in patterns across our surveys, in contrast, highlight findings that may be a function of contextual differences and warrant further

> 7According to the V-Dem codebook, electoral autocracies have “De-jure multiparty elections for the chief executive and the legislature, but failing to achieve that elections are free and fair, or de-facto multiparty, or a minimum level of Dahl’s institutional prerequisites of polyarchy” (Coppedge, Gerring, Knutsen, Lindberg, Teorell, Alizada, Altman, Bernhard, Cornell, Fish et al. 2021).

8Electoral democracies are defined as “De-facto free and fair multiparty elections and a minimum level of Dahl’s institutional prerequisites for polyarchy as measured by V- Dem’s Electoral Democracy Index, but either access to justice, or transparent law enforcement, or liberal principles of respect for personal liberties, rule of law, and judicial as well as legislative constraints on the executive not satisfied as measured by V- Dem’s Liberal Component Index” (Coppedge et al. 2021).

9We use the Civil Liberty Index, which V-Dem describes as “Civil liberty is understood as liberal freedom, where freedom is a property of individuals. Civil liberty is constituted by the absence of physical violence committed by government agents and the absence of constraints of private liberties and political liberties by the government.” It is a scale that runs from 0 to 1, with 1 indicating higher levels of civil liberties.

> 10In particular, we use the Physical Integrity Index, which V-Dem describes as: “Physical integrity is understood as freedom from political killings and torture by the government. Among the set of civil liberties, these liberal rights are the most relevant for political competition and accountability. The index is based on indicators that reflect violence committed by government agents and that are not directly referring to elections.” It ranges from 0 to 1, with 1 signifying the highest levels of physical integrity protection and 0 representing the highest levels of violence.

6
<!-- Start of picture text -->
1.00<br>Philippines G<br>0.75<br>Uganda G<br>0.50<br>Iraq G<br>0.25<br>0.00<br>0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00<br>Physical Violence Index<br>Civil Liberties index<br><!-- End of picture text -->

Figure 1: V-Dem Measures of Physical Violence and Civil Liberties Indexes in Year of Surveys exploration within cases.

# **3 Theoretical Motivation**

## **3.1 Literature review**

We build on a growing body of research that examines the behavioral consequences of exposure to traumatic events in general and on the consequences of displacement in particular. The negative impact of displacement is well documented. IDPs and refugees commonly face challenging living conditions after losing their housing land and property, their livelihood and security, and their social networks and safety nets. Faced with new environments, they may lack access to resources and become marginalized by local authorities (Harild & Christensen 2010). Social and political empowerment, specifically, are negatively affected by displacement through the prevailing social breakdown in the place of origin, and frequent adverse relation with host populations and local governments. Yet recent studies have shown that raising social and political participation improves living conditions and creates mutually beneficial opportunities for both IDPs and their host population (Ferris 2011).

Existing research finds contradictory behavioral implications of displacement with regards to 7
social and political participation. Forced displacement has been shown to have negative longrun effects on levels of political participation among IDPs (Zhukov & Talibova 2018), but displacement is also correlated with improved education outcomes among both IDPs and refugees (Sacerdote 2012, Becker, Grosfeld, Grosjean, Voigtlander & Zhuravskaya 2020, Fransen, VargasSilva & Siegel 2018) and positive social growth. Several studies show that exposure to conflict related violence or crime leads to increased levels of pro-social behavior. Along these lines, a growing literature finds that exposure to violence in war is positively correlated with increased participation in politics, indicated by voting, joining political groups, and attending community meetings (Bateson 2012, Gilligan, Pasquale & Samii 2014, Bellows & Miguel 2009, De Luca & Verpoorten 2015).<sup>11</sup> In Uganda, a case we analyze in this paper, Blattman (2009) finds that child soldier survivors had higher levels of political participation on some dimensions after re-entry than relevant control groups.

These behavioral changes are most often cited as post-traumatic growth, the experience of positive change occurring as a result of struggle with highly challenging life crises. Post-traumatic growth manifests in a variety of ways, including increased appreciation for life in general, more meaningful relationships, an improved self-concept, changed priorities, and a richer existential and spiritual life (Tedeschi & Calhoun 2004). These positive post-trauma developments mirror previously documented positive responses to loss, including growth in character, new skills, new perspectives on life, and stronger relationships. Degrees of post-traumatic growth have been reported in 74 percent of Israeli adolescents exposed to violence, for example, and veterans who endured heavy combat have been found to be significantly more resilient than those who did not experience combat stress (Elder Jr & Clipp 1989).

But the behavior observed in studies that observe post-traumatic growth can be driven by a number of alternative, less straightforward mechanisms. Other possible causes for the link between exposure to violence and participation in politics look to instrumentalist and expressive participation (Bateson 2012). Survivors of violence may be more likely to seek assistance from elected officials or to lobby for policy changes. Participation in politics may also mitigate longterm psychological harm associated with victimization. Another possibility is that conflict may result in the establishment of new institutions or social norms that result in higher participation in politics (Bellows & Miguel 2009).

Contrasting even further, a meta-review of exposure to violence and behavior change found

> 11Conflict can also have positive implications for social life more broadly, such as more egalitarian gender roles, more equitable distribution of property rights, empowered civil society, and increased participation (Wood 2008). The different findings across the literature may reflect differences in the methodology and context of these studies. In this paper, we focus on individual behavior.

8
that these benefits are mainly the result of pro-social behavior within their own groups (Bauer, Blattman, Chytilov ́a, Henrich, Miguel & Mitts 2016). And another set of research findings highlight the negative behavioral effects that exposure to violence has for survivors: exposure to violence can decrease levels of trust generally (Cassar, Grosjean & Whitt 2013, Rohner, Thoenig & Zilibotti 2013) and in the state specifically (De Juan & Pierskalla 2016), harden negative attitudes towards outgroups (Beber, Roessler & Scacco 2014), and decrease levels of consumption (Serneels & Verpoorten 2015).

The relationship between exposure to violence, trauma, and political behavior is thus contested and, in many cases, existing findings are contradictory. Part of this is likely driven is inconsistent measurement of exposure to violence across research projects. But despite these differences in exposure, there is a (usually unstated) assumption that conflict-related experiences lead to a consistent form trauma and, thus, have consistent ramifications.

The underlying mechanisms proposed for these contrasting findings on observable manifestations of behavioral change are typically rooted in changed perceptions or beliefs about survivors’ sense of agency in local political, economic, and social life (Warschauer 2003). This ability and – as crucially – perception of the ability to “contribute to the social life of the host community and live without fear of discrimination” is a core element of cultivating durable solutions for IDPs (Fielden 2008). As such, we focus both on traditional manifestations of engagement (such as voting) but also and especially on these perceptions of social and political empowerment in contexts of internal displacement.

As with the larger literature on general post-conflict behavior, the implications of trauma in general and displacement in particular for perceptions of empowerment are mixed. After arriving in new communities, IDPs have different opportunities to such participation include family or ethnic connections, faith-based groups, and general contact with host communities (Jacobs & Paviotti 2017). These avenues can, under certain circumstances, provide IDPs a connection to their new communities and, combined with the experience of being up-rooted, result in perceptions of empowerment. Frequently, however, such opportunities for inclusion are limited for IDPs, who may face exclusionary attitudes and policies where they settle, resulting in social exclusion (Beall & Piron 2005).

In this paper, we attempt to unpack the relationship between experiences of displacement and perceptions of social and political empowerment. We do so by situating experiences of displacement in the broader context of conflict-related trauma, including variation in the experience of displacement. We describe our expectations for the impact of displacement on social or political behavior and perceptions in the next section.

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# **3.2 Theory**

Forced displacement is the result of a number of intersecting experiences and contextual influences that likely have short-, medium-, and long-term ramifications for survivors’ social and political life. The fear of or experience with violence that prompted displacement in the first place potentially caused trauma even before they left their homes. This trauma may be compounded by the loss of economic security and social networks built prior to their displacement and exposure to potentially hostile groups or communities where they settle.

Indeed, a number of studies have found that displacement status is positively correlated with both PTSD and depression (Roberts, Damundu, Lomoro & Sondorp 2009, Mels, Derluyn, Broekaert & Rosseel 2010, Husain, Anderson, Cardozo, Becknell, Blanton, Araki & Vithana 2011), but unpacking whether the PTSD and depression are caused by the experience of displacement or of the trauma that caused the displacement is difficult, as they are not mutually exclusive. It can both be true that the displacement experience exacerbates or causes depression and PTSD and that pre-displacement trauma does as well.

Despite higher levels of PTSD and depression among displaced populations relative to nondisplaced persons, the experience of displacement may, consistent with other sources of trauma, also in a perverse way build emotional resilience (Siriwardhana & Stewart 2013) by catalyzing social adaptation and change (Somasundaram 2007). These changes may produce unexpected increases in social and political engagement by displaced persons. Political and social empowerment can also take different forms as well, each of which may be impacted differently by experiences of displacement. First, we could observe _behavioral_ manifestations, in which individuals become more likely to participate in political and social events, such as voting, participating in community groups, or speaking openly about their political views. Second, displacement may change _perceptions_ of political and social empowerment, such as individual sense of agency, ability to contribute to their communities broadly, or levels of trust in others.

While behavioral and perceptions based manifestations of political and social engagement are likely related, we expect that they are distinct in important ways, especially in forced displacement contexts. First, forced displacement occurs in countries that experience or have a recent history with violence, meaning that what we might typically consider behavioral manifestations of political empowerment may be riskier for some groups or less available than in other contexts regardless of displacement status. Second, in contexts of forced displacement, even those who did not become displaced face similar macro-level challenges in participating in social or political life. As a result, we do not expect behavioral manifestations to be correlated with experiences of displacement relative to non-displaced persons in the same community.

10
In contrast, _perceptions_ based manifestations of social and political empowerment are less constrained by the political and social environment that make up forced displacement contexts. Although less directly observable, these perceptions are important to helping promote reintegration and rebuild livelihoods. The displacement experiences that, as described above, can contribute to a growth mindset, are more likely to take hold. We thus expect that displaced persons are more likely to perceive themselves as having personal agency and are more likely to perceive themselves as able to contribute to their communities.

To the extent that experiences of displacement change an individuals’ perception of social or political empowerment, we further expect that local context constrains whether IDPs become engaged in social and political life. Forced displacement is most likely in weak and conflict prone states, so there may be barriers to political and social empowerment beyond the displacement type. In contexts of internal displacement, civilians who were not displaced also live contexts of violence and repression, distorting baseline levels of participation and senses of political empowerment in social and political life.

Even within the same country or sub-national region, IDPs may flee to different locations. Some flee to urban spaces (Landau 2014) while others arrive in formal or informal displacement camps. Once IDPs arrive in these different contexts, their local physical environment structures their ability and willingness to participate in political and social life differentially. Pham, Fozouni, Al-Saiedi, Coughlin & Vinck (2021) show that Yazidi IDP in Iraq who were in camps had higher levels of psychological stress than IDPs outside of camps. Similarly, Crea, Calvo & Loughry (2015) show that camp-based refugees had worse levels of health and well-being in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, urban environments can promote self-reliance by requiring IDPs to build and rely on social networks.

# **3.3 Hypotheses**

Based on this theoretical framework, we hypothesize that the likelihood that displaced persons in conflict and or post-conflict contexts engage in political and social behaviors depends on 1) the context of their displacement and 2) the manifestation of empowerment.

First, we expect that those who were displaced have higher levels of perceived social and political empowerment. But individuals will not have different levels of behavioral manifestations of engagement. Forced displacement typically occurs in contexts that are highly repressive and have high levels of violence. Similar to non-displaced populations in such dangerous environments, displaced persons may refrain from visible behavioral manifestations of empowerment.

Second, we expect that within IDP communities, variation in local displacement context differ11
entially impacts perceptions of empowerment. In particular, we expect urban based displacement to be especially conducive to empowerment, while we expect camp-based displacement is especially harmful to IDP empowerment.

# **4 Research Design**

To evaluate our hypotheses, we analyze original cross-section surveys we conducted that sample IDPs and similarly at-risk but not displaced populations in Iraq (2019) and the Philippines (2010). To explore temporal change within a single case, we additionally analyze a repeated cross-sectional survey in northern Uganda (in 2007 (n=1404) and 2010 (n=2498)) that also captures IDPs and similarly at risk populations. We restrict the analysis of the Uganda repeated cross-sectional waves just to Acholi, the main site of displacement within northern Uganda and the region for which we have consistent and comparable coverage across the two survey waves. Figure 2 plots the spatial distribution of our samples in the Philippines (Figure 2a), Iraq (Figure 2b), and Uganda (the 2010 wave, Figure 2c). Combined, these surveys provide 11,170 unique responses that capture the IDP experience across three different continents, regimes, and conflict zones. An additional case contributing to our reflection, Colombia, is presented in appendix because of significant methodological differences.

Each survey was collected independently as part of our broader research agenda to understand the consequences of forced displacement. As a result, the survey samples and instruments are not identical across cases.<sup>12</sup> Each survey was designed to capture and respect the particularities of the local context. We bring these surveys together precisely because they enable us to examine the experience of IDPs across contexts while prioritizing the internal validity of each case. The three surveys presented in this paper provide the best balance of consistency in questions, similarity of populations sampled, and analytically fruitful contextual differences between cases in our broader research agenda and data gathering efforts on the topic.<sup>13</sup> Although specific design decisions vary by country, consistency across the surveys enables us to explore the ramifications of displacement across different macro (i.e. countries, regime types, conflict status) contexts, as described in Section 2. Because the surveys were all carried out by our research team, we have a common pool of overlapping questions that enable comparison of patterns

> 12We provide additional information on the original sampling procedures for each project in the Section A.1 of the Appendix.

> 13We originally proposed analyzing Colombia in conjunction with the three contexts presented in the main text. We discuss the decision to drop Colombia from the main text and present the results from our analysis of the case in the Appendix, Section D.1.

12
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across the surveys. This research design enables us to accumulate multiple internally valid subnational results while probing the generalizability of findings across contexts and cases (Dunning, Grossman, Humphreys, Hyde, McIntosh & Nellis 2019, Zhukov, Davenport & Kostyuk 2019) to the extent possible.

We analyze each of the surveys separately to account for the different sampling procedures and to ensure that we are making valid comparisons within cases according to the intended sampling structure. Because each survey provides different opportunities to explore elements of our theory, we present the analysis of each survey separately. Within each case, our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we analyze whether IDPs have significantly different levels of social and political engagement by comparing IDPs to similarly at risk but not displaced persons in our sample. Second, to better understand the conditions under which IDPs report social or political empowerment, we unpack heterogeneity within displaced communities within Iraq and the Philippines by probing whether variation in the experience of displacement is differentially associated with our measures of empowerment.

# **4.1 Ethics, Methods, and Surveying IDP Communities**

Systematically surveying displaced populations in conflict and post-conflict contexts prompts a number of practical and ethical challenges. We have adopted a participatory approach to the research cycle to ensure that the research is appropriately designed, adapted and relevant to the context, and provides timely, accurate and useful information for policy-makers. We typically adopt a sequential mixed-methods design starting with a qualitative phase designed to inform the development of a survey instrument. In parallel, several exercises are used to engage stakeholders into a participatory design of the instrument. The resulting instrument is validated and translated and then reviewed and debated with key stakeholders and finally pilot-tested and adapted as needed. The digital data collection platform we developed for this work, KoBoToolbox, was designed to reduce the gap between data collection and the provision of results. Results are then use to engage into a dialogue with key stakeholders, including the affected community, to provide further context Displacement further poses a number of methodological challenges for survey sampling, especially for random samples drawn primarily on geographic boundaries. To overcome these challenges, we work with reliable sources of information on displaced populations such as UNHCR and IOM, depending on the context, to develop the best possible sampling frame. We then created separate strata for displaced populations and non-displaced populations, so as not to select exclusively on displacement.

14
Despite the many steps taken to ensure that our data was collected rigorously and ethically, several limitations exist. In some instances, displaced persons may wish to remain hidden or be unwilling to respond to questions due to the traumatic experiences that prompted their displacement in the first place. Survey instruments were designed to minimize the risk of mental distress caused by potentially sensitive questions on personal opinions and perceptions. In particular, we ask questions that reflect day-to-day experiences and activities instead of asking respondents to detail past trauma. Respondents were informed multiple times of their option to refuse to answer any questions or stop interviews. Enumerators also repeatedly reminded respondents of their anonymity in this survey and that data were collected and stored in a confidential manner.<sup>14</sup> In addition, we collect self-reported data on respondents’ experiences and exposure to various forms of violence. Because we are interested in experiences of displacement, we cannot corroborate self-reported exposure to violent events with independent databases such as ACLED, as many respondents have likely moved since any such exposure. We do not collect their precise origin locations for security reasons.

Moreover, we ask respondents to self-report their engagement with their communities and their participation in political life. Such answers may be prone to social desirability bias. We designed the questions and survey enumeration process (including by working with local research partners for enumeration) to minimize such risks to the extent possible. We expect that, to the extent that social desirability or reporting bias are present, that they are distributed similarly across displaced and non-displaced populations.

# **4.2 Measuring Displacement and Empowerment Across Contexts**

Our outcome of interest is the extent to which respondents report participating in political and social life as well as perceiving a sense of social and political agency. Because these concepts can take many forms, we examine multiple manifestations of political and social engagement. We list these forms and the countries for which we asked relevant questions in Table 2.

Most broadly, we divide the relevant responses into two categories: behavioral manifestations of engagement and perceptions of agency and community relationships. In each of the surveys, we asked respondents similar questions about their intended voting behavior, whether they are members of a variety of civil society groups,<sup>15</sup> and whether they attend various civil society meetings.

> 14We describe our data security procedures in the Appendix, Section A.2.

> 15We only survey positive group membership. For example, we do not ask respondents whether they have joined a gang or armed group. While such behavior may be considered a manifestation of empowerment, we refrain from asking such questions for security considerations.

15
We group these responses into the behavioral manifestations of political and social engagement. We also asked respondents a series of questions about their perceptions of their political and social status. For example, we asked respondents about their sense of personal agency, their ability to contribute to their community, the quality of their relationships, and their trust in a number of organizations and institutions. We list which indicators were asked in each survey in Table 2. We provide additional details on the specific question wording analyzed in the Appendix, Section B.

As noted above, self-reported measures of political and social behaviors may have a number of biases. We aim to limit these through our enumeration strategy and survey design. But bias likely remains. The structure of our survey data limits our ability to directly observe respondents’ motivations for their participation in some of the manifestations of empowerment. IDPs may report their intention to vote, for example, but have no way to note that they only vote due to clientelism which is pervasive in some of the contexts we study. While we cannot distinguish between such motivations, we expect that IDPs and vulnerable but not displaced communities face similar incentives.

|||**Behav**|**ioral**||||**Perception**||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Country**|Voting|Participate Civil Society|Talk Openly|Attend Meetings|Trust|Personal agency|AbilityContribute Community|Relationships|
|Iraq|||||||||
|Philippines|||||||||
|Uganda|||||||||

Table 2: Manifestations of Political and Social Engagement Captured in Surveys Our explanatory variables measure displacement status. First, we measure whether a respondent is displaced or has a history of displacement. We describe the specific measures we use within each case, but generally respondents either self-report these statuses. All three surveys include relevant control populations who are similarly at risk – including those who witnessed or experienced violence – but did not become displaced. Second, to analyze variation within displaced communities, we analyze variation in the context of displacement as our independent variables. For example, we measure whether IDPs are in camps or in urban settings (in Iraq) and whether IDPs are in urban or rural localities (in the Philippines). We use the sampling strata to make such determinations. We describe the specific measurement strategies for each case when describing the models below.

# **5 Results**

Differences in the design and sampling of each of the surveys provide different opportunities to analyze different elements of our theory. We thus analyze each country context separately and our 16
analysis proceeds in three steps. In Section 5.1, we analyze how correlations between displacement status and political engagement change over time within Uganda. In Section 5.2, we use matching models (Ho, Imai, King & Stuart 2007) to grapple with non-random patterns of displacement and the context of displacement in the Philippines. Finally, in Section 5.3, we again use matching models to grapple with potential selection effects in Iraq.

# **5.1 Uganda**

We analyze two waves of repeated cross-sectional data in Acholi, Uganda. We plot the trends according to our survey data in Figure 8. We collect two measures of empowerment consistently across the two survey waves: Relationship with the Community and Contribute to Events in Community. As such, we restrict our analysis in Uganda to those variables.

We plot aggregate trends in these two measures across the survey waves in Figure 8. In general, the trend-line improved between the survey waves, while the number of respondents who reported ever being displaced declined modestly. In aggregate, respondents in Uganda consistently report strong perceptions of their relationships with their communities, limiting the variation available to understand how experiences of displacement are associated with these relationships. There is important variation in whether respondents feel they are able to contribute to events in their communities both within and across survey waves, however.

To explore how the relationship between individual experiences with displacement and empowerment vary over time, we run a set of four logistic regressions, which we plot in Figure 3b. The sampling is consistent between surveys, but we do not re-sample the same people (therefore it is not a panel), we therefore run separate models for the 2007 and 2010 data. In the top models, we use a binary indicator for whether respondents indicate that they have either “Good” or “Very Good” relationships with their communities as our dependent variable. In the bottom two models, we use a binary indicator for whether respondents agree with the statement that they are able to contribute to events in their communities. In all four models, the independent variable of interest is whether the respondent self-reports ever being displaced. Each model controls for Witnessing Violence, Mental Health, Sex, Age, Education, and Monthly Income.

The results are mixed. Results for the relationship with community are insignificant across both survey waves.<sup>16</sup> The results for perceptions of the ability to contribute to the community, however, are statistically significant but in different directions between waves. In 2007, experience with displacement is negatively correlated with respondent perceptions of being able to contribute to their 16As shown in Figure 8, there is limited variation in perceptions of relationships with the community within the Acholi region, and this overwhelming positive perception is stable across survey waves.

17
<!-- Start of picture text -->
1.00<br>G<br>2007 G<br>G<br>0.75<br>2010 G<br>0.50<br>Displacement<br>0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.0<br>G Ever Displaced<br>0.25<br>2007 G<br>0.00<br>2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2010 G<br>Year<br>G % Ever Displaced<br>Variable % Good/Very Good Relationship with Community<br>% Has Ability to Contribute to Events in Community 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.0<br>Odds ratio (log scale)<br>(a) General Trends in Uganda Data (b) Temporal Variation in Relationships<br>Relationship with Community<br>Proportion<br>Year<br>Contribute to Events in Community<br><!-- End of picture text -->

Figure 3: Uganda Temporal Analysis communities. When we re-sampled the same area in 2010, experience with displacement became positively correlated with perceptions of being able contribute to the communities. In a span of three years, therefore, the relationship between experience with displacement and perception of empowerment within their community flips when sampling the same area.

While there is some risk of conflating group attachment with empowerment as northern Uganda has high community identification/attachment in general (as highlighted by Figure 8), we focus on an explicit measure of perceived empowerment. We direct ask respondents whether they perceive themselves as able to contribute to their communities in the bottom graph of Figure 3b. We do not believe that the variation in responses that we highlight – the change between survey waves – is likely driven by a community pressure mechanism that changes over time. Instead, we find it much more plausible that changing dynamics in the conflict and thus the experience of displacement (in particular the return of IDPs from camps to their communities between 2007 and 2010) changed perceptions of empowerment.

18
# **5.2 Philippines**

We next analyze our survey in Central Mindanao, Philippines.<sup>17</sup> The Philippines data enables us to evaluate two aspects of our theory of IDP perceptions of engagement: first, we compare IDPs and those who are not displaced in Central Mindanao in Section 5.2.1, second, we analyze variation within IDPs in Section 5.2.2.

## **5.2.1 Displacement and Empowerment**

To analyze whether experiences with displacement change perceptions of empowerment, we compare IDPs in our sample to respondents do not have a history of displacement. Because these categories are unlikely randomly distributed, we used propensity score matching to estimate the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT).<sup>18</sup> Matching enables us to approximate the causal effect of displacement on perceptions within the case by maximizing the suitability of the comparisons we use in our data.

We create two matched samples based on displacement status: one using current displacement as our treatment and the other using previous history of displacement as the treatment. The propensity score was estimated using a probit regression of the treatment on the covariates. We used full matching on the propensity score, which yielded adequate balance, as indicated in the Appendix, Section E.

Using these matched samples, we run a series of regressions. We fit a linear regression model with the given empowerment variable as the outcome and treatment status and the covariates as additive predictors and included the full matching weights in the estimation. The coefficient on the treatment (displacement status) was taken to be the estimate of the treatment effect of being an IDP. We create matches with the following controls: age, gender, education, violence witnessed, and Province. Models based on the matched sample control for the same variables. We use clustered standard errors with matching stratum membership as the clustering variable. We plot the results from these models in Figure 4, with the estimates using Currently Displaced as the treatment in red and the estimates of the ATT for Ever Displaced in green.

Figure 4 show respondents with displacement experience – both current and previous – perceive themselves as being able to contribute to events in their communities at higher levels than non-displaced persons. We estimate the ATT of being currently displaced as 5%, 25%, 20% for contributing to events in the municipality, in Midanao, and in the Barangay, respectively. Previous history of displacement has similar estimates of the ATT: 11%, 7.6%, and 13%, respectively.

17Further details on the survey are provided in the Appendix, Section A.1 and in Vinck & Bell (2011). 18The ATT is the average effect of treatment on participants.

19
<!-- Start of picture text --> Trust G<br>ControlOverLife<br>G<br>Contribute Events in municipality G<br>Contribute Events in Mindanao<br>G<br>Contribute Events in Barangay G<br>Attend Meetings G<br>−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50<br>Estimate<br>Displacement G Currently Ever<br>Variable Philippines<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 4: ATT of Displacement Status in Philippines Using Matched Samples Although displacement experience increases perceptions of the ability to contribute to communities, we find that both current and previous experiences with displacement decrease meeting attendance (estimated ATT of 3% for currently displaced and 13% for ever displaced) in the matched samples. We do not find significant differences in levels of trust of perceptions of self-agency in either matched sample.

# **5.2.2 Heterogeneity within Displaced Populations in the Philippines**

Next, we explore heterogeneity within IDPs in Central Mindanao. We restrict our sample to just those who have ever been displaced. Thus, we are interested in calculating the ATT of experiences of displacement, with the relevant control group being other displaced persons who do not have that context of displacement. In particular, our sample captures both urban and rural IDPs.<sup>19</sup> We create an indicator variable for whether a respondent lives in an urban or rural environment and use that indicator variable to create a new matched sample, with the treatment being an urban environment.

> 19We sampled in three urban centers: Cotabato, Marawi, and Iligan.

20
We followed the same procedure as in Section 5.2.1 and plot the results in Figure 12. As with above, we fit a linear regression model with the given empowerment variable as the outcome and treatment status and the covariates as additive predictors and included the full matching weights in the estimation. We include the same set of control variables as Figure 4 and we again use clustered standard errors with matching stratum membership as the clustering variable.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Trust G<br>ControlOverLife G<br>Contribute Events in municipality G<br>Contribute Events in Mindanao G<br>Contribute Events in Barangay G<br>Attend Meetings G<br>−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50<br>Estimate<br>Displacement G Urban<br>Variable Philippines<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 5: Matching Within the Displaced Population in the Philippines In Figure 12, we find that among IDPs, urban respondents have higher levels of trust (ATT=12.7%) and improved perceptions of self-agency (ATT = 11.1%). In contrast, we find that urban IDPs are less likely to perceive themselves as able to contribute to events in Mindanao (ATT=8.7%) or in the Barangay (ATT=12.9%). We do not find significant changes in attending meetings or the ability to contribute to events in the municipality.

# **5.3 Iraq**

Finally, we analyze survey responses collected in Mosul, Iraq, in the wake of the defeat of ISIS. As with the other surveys, our survey sampled IDPs and non-displaced persons. We use differences 21
within these groups to understand the impact of displacement on perceptions of empowerment before analyzing heterogeneity among IDPs, focusing especially on differences between being in a camp versus being an urban IDP.

# **5.3.1 Displacement and Empowerment**

First, we explore the relationship between displacement experience and empowerment within Iraq. As with the Philippines, we again use matching because displacement status is not randomly distributed. Following the same procedure as above, we use displacement status (defined as ever displaced in the Iraq sample) as the treatment and used full matching on the propensity score to correct for the non-random nature of displacement. The propensity score was again estimated using a probit regression of the treatment on the covariates and with full matching on the propensity score. We match based on the following covariates: gender, age, education, violence witnessed, mental health, and ethno-religious category. Balance is shown in the Appendix, Section E. We again run regressions based on the matched sample, with clustered standard errors with matching stratum membership as the clustering variable. These results estimate the ATT of experiences of displacement, with the relevant control being paired Mosul residents who did not become displaced.

Figure 6 plots the estimated ATT of displacement experience based on these models. The results show that IDPs in our sample have higher levels of trust in their community (ATT = 12.4%), higher perceptions of agency (ATT = 9.8%), and higher perceptions of their ability to contribute to events in their communities (ATT = 18.1%). Planning to vote and member of association and positive and significant, but the magnitudes suggest that the impact of displacement is practically meaningless. Perceptions of ability to change life is not significantly related to displacement experience in the matched sample.

# **5.3.2 Heterogeneity within Displaced Populations**

Finally, we restrict our Iraq sample to those were displaced to better understand heterogeneity among IDPs within Iraq. In particular, we analyze differences between IDPs in camps and IDPs in Mosul. Civilians fleeing ISIS either went to camps or displaced within Mosul. Because placement in a camp versus in a city is likely not random, we again use propensity score matching to estimate the marginal effect of being in a camp on perceptions of social and political empowerment.

We present results from the regressions on the matched samples among displaced populations in Figure 7. The treatment is whether the IDP is in a camp, thus the control population is IDPs 22
<!-- Start of picture text --> Trust People In Community G<br>Plan to Vote 2022 G<br>Member of Association G<br>Control Over Life G<br>Contribute to Events in Community G<br>Ability to Change Life G<br>−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50<br>Estimate<br>Displacement G Ever Displaced<br>Iraq<br>Variable<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 6: ATT of Displacement in Iraq based on Matched Sample who are outside of camps. Each regression controls for gender, age, education, violence witnessed, mental health, and ethno-religious category. Figure 7 plots the estimated ATT of being in a camp.

The results in Figure 7 show being in a camp decreases perceptions of social cohesion for all measures other than the plan to vote and member of an association. We estimate the ATT of being in a camp is -4% for trust in other people in the community, -8% for perceived control over life, -7% for contributing to events in the community, and -8% for the ability to change your life. We estimate the ATT for voting is a 4% increase over IDPs outside of camps.

# **6 Policy and Program Implications**

According to the Framework on Durable Solutions for Internationally Displaced Persons, durable solutions for IDPs require eight criteria: long-term safety and security; enjoyment of an adequate standard of living; access to livelihoods and employment; effective and accessible mechanism to restore housing, land and property; access to personal documentation; family reunification; participation in public affairs without discrimination; and access to effective remedies and justice 23
<!-- Start of picture text --> Trust People In Community G<br>Plan to Vote 2022 G<br>Member of Association G<br>Control Over Life G<br>Contribute to Events in Community G<br>Ability to Change Life G<br>−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50<br>Estimate<br>Displacement G Camp<br>Iraq<br>Variable<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 7: ATT of Being in a Camp Based on Match Sample in Iraq (Brookings 2010).

In this paper, we use a multi-country approach to understand the seventh criteria for durable solutions in a context of forced displacement: the potential for social and political participation of those forcibly displaced. We collect and analyze survey data in three situations of internal displacement to examine the conditions under which IDPs become socially or politically empowered by examine factors associated with such engagement, in particular with regards to displacement settings, timing, and broader context.

We find that, perhaps against expectations, displacement experiences are associated with perceptions of empowerment and engagement with local communities and local governance institutions, but this is not consistent across place and time. Generally, our findings challenge simple assumptions of post-traumatic growth leading to enhance pro-social behaviors among IDPs in a forced displacement contexts. Across countries, we find that different manifestations of participa24
tion and empowerment are differentially related to displacement status and context within the same cases, and that such manifestations and relations are inconsistent across locations and over time.

This heterogeneity points to the importance of identifying and addressing the barriers and enablers of participation in political and social life, which policymakers can use to develop policies and programs that stimulate participation and cultivate perceptions of empowerment. While the three case studies in this paper are insufficient to draw definitive conclusion on such barriers and enablers, we find that opportunities and settings significantly shape IDPs engagement and participation. This heterogeneity is an important finding in and of itself: based on our data and analysis, international actors should pursue different interventions in Iraq, the Philippines, and Uganda. Instead, inconsistencies across our cases highlight the need for locally-responsive and contextually appropriate interventions to promote empowerment among IDPs. Such local ownership will allow interventions to be more responsive to perceived needs among IDPs, which we show likely vary across time and space even within the same displacement context.

Despite the heterogeneity in our results across contexts, we do find some important trends within cases that can inform targeted interventions by the international community. In Uganda, we find that patterns of engagement change over time, likely as a result from the transition from a period of peace negotiation immediately after the violence to a period when the peace talks have collapsed but the conflict has moved (with the LRA) beyond the country’s borders. Opportunities for return and resettlement likely prompted higher levels of social and political engagement among IDPs. Our data reflect this changing set of priorities for IDPs as the stage of the conflict changes. Policy and programming in such fluid contexts should regularly seek input from local communities to ensure that interveners remain aware of priorities among IDPs. Our results also highlight that the initial period of resettlement and return after prolonged displacement is likely a fruitful period for the international community to engage IDPs by capitalizing on their improved perceptions of empowerment.

In the Philippines and Iraq, we find that the settings of displacement have different effects on engagement and participation among IDPs. Based on the matching models, we show that campbased displacement is in general negatively related to personal empowerment when compared to observationally similar urban displaced populations. But we should caution that city-based displacement is not a panacea: in the Philippines, we find mixed relationships between urban status and perceptions of empowerment when comparing urban IDPs to rural IDPs using matched samples.

Again, inconsistencies of relationships across displacement settings highlight the importance of understanding and responding to nuances of the specific case. Survey data suggests that varying 25
elements of both vertical (e.g. perception of local authorities) and horizontal (community relations) social cohesion, as well as trauma are important factors to consider in creating opportunities for participation. As a result, our findings suggest that international humanitarian actors seeking to encourage engagement among IDPs should focus especially on innovating new programs that lessen the psychological harm of camps (Pham, Fozouni, Al-Saiedi, Coughlin & Vinck 2021), for example by increasing the provision of mental health care at the site of camps. Our results suggest that even among IDPs who experienced similar levels of pre-displacement violence, IDPs in camps are less likely to participate, suggesting that the experience of camp based displacement may do additional harm to residents sense of empowerment. Based on these insights, international actors should prioritize engagement with camp-based IDPs to better understand the salient constraints they face and work with actors such as UNHCR to make camp based displacement more empowering in the short term.

Additionally, beyond the substantive findings, our studies demonstrate that it is possible and valuable to collect data on social and political engagement at a local level in emergencies, and that doing so over time is important. In Uganda, we show that relying on a single snapshot may miss changes in perceptions that might be important for humanitarian and development responses to displacement. As we describe in our research design section, systematically capturing the perceptions of IDPs is often difficult as they can be hard to find or live in insecure areas. Our research shows that it is possible to conduct safe, ethical, and methodologically rigorous surveys of such groups. International humanitarian actors should seek out such data at regular intervals to monitor and better understand the populations they serve.

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