metadata: authors: 0: author: Arnold, Fred
docna: 0: docna: Revised estimates and projections of
            international migration : 1980-2000
docty: Policy Research Working Paper
subtopic: Human Migrations & Resettlements,Agricultural Industry,Demographics,International Migration,Migration and Development
teratopic: Gender
abstracts: cdata!: This report reviews the World
            Bank's latest international migration statistics for
            every country in the world for each five year period from
            1980 - 2000. The estimates and projections of net
            international migration during this period will be used as
            input statistics for the forthcoming edition of the World
            Population Projections. In the early 1980s, net
            international migration to all receiving countries totaled
            more than 1.2 million persons a year. The author assumes
            this figure to gradually decrease to fewer than 900,000
            persons a year in the period 1995 - 2000. The current male
            dominance of international migration flows is also expected
            to decrease. He also assumes that the importance of the
            United States as a prime destination of immigrants will
            increase substantially in the 1990s. Mexico is by far the
            largest net exporter of international migrants.
repnme: repnme: Revised estimates and projections of
            international migration : 1980-2000
display_title: Revised estimates and projections of
            international migration : 1980-2000
listing_relative_url: /research/1989/08/700478/revised-estimates-projections-international-migration-1980-2000
topicv3: Health, Nutrition and Population m1327755 621,Immigration m1504162 2837,Naturalization m1504168 2843,Emigration m1504169 2844,Population Projections m1504366 3662
publishtoextweb_dt: 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z
historic_topic: Gender
origu: Policy Plan & Prog Review Dept
no_of_pages: 94
model_extractions: **Plc,Planning, and Research | Population, Health, and Nutrition**

Amold reviews the World Bank's previous estimates and projections of international migration through the year 2000 and recommends revised figures - on the basis of recent information about immigration and emigration. Net international migration figures should be revised upward for most of the sending and receiving countries.

In the early 1980s, net intemational migration to all receiving countries totaled more than 1.2 million persons a year. Amold assumes this figure to gradually decrease to fewer than 900,000 persons a year in the period 1995-2000. The current male dominance of intemational migration flows is also expected to decrease gradually over time.

In the 1980s, the United States was the net recipient of about as many immigrants as all the rest of the countries in the world together. Amold assumes that the importance of the United States as a prime destination of inmigrants will increase substantially in the 1990s. Nine other countries were net recipients of more than 20,000 intemational migrants a year in the 1980s. The major destination countries include Austnalia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Cote d'Ivoire.

Mexico is by far the largest net exporter of international migrants, and its dominance in this area is expected to increase in the 1990s. Most of the other major source countries for migration are in Asia. **Thie** United Kingdom is the only European country with net emigration of more than 15,000 persons a year, although Poland, Ireland, and Portugal also have substantial net outflows.

This paper is a product of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division, Population and Human Resources DepartmenL Copies are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC, 20433. Please contact Sonia Ainsworth, room S6-065, extension 31091 (88 pages with charts and tables).

The PPR Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work under way in the Bank's Policy, Planning, and Research Complex. An objective of the series is to get these fndings out quicldy, even if presentations are less than fully polished. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in these papers do not necessarily represent official policy of the Bank.

Produced at the PPR Dissemination Center
# CONTENTS

|Introduction.<br>.|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|1|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Oll A|t|f|It||ti|l Mi|ti||A||||||||||3|
|vera ssessmen||o|n|rn|ona|gr|||ssu|p||o||s|.|.||.||
|Major Receiving Co|u|nt|ries|...|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.|||.|4|
|<br>United Stat|<br>e|<br>s|<br>. .|<br> . .|<br> . . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|4|
|Australia|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|22|
|Canada . . <br>|.<br>|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|31<br>|
|New Zealand||.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|41|
|Asia and the Paci|fi|c|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|46|
|Hong Kong|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|47|
|<br>Pakistan, I|r|an,|and|Afg|hanis|tan|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|49|
|Bangladesh|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|50|
|China<br>. .|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|50|
|The Philipp|i|nes|.|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|51|
|The Republi|c|of|Kor|ea|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|52|
|Other Asian|C|ou|ntri|es|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|52|
|Africa . . . . .|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|54|
|Kenya...||..|....|...|.....|...|||||||||||||56|
|Zimbabwe .|.|.|..|..|...|..|..|.|..|.||.||.|.||.|.|56|
|<br>Cote d'Ivoi|<br>r|<br>e|<br>. .|<br> . .|<br> . . .|<br> . .|<br>. .|<br> .|<br> . . .|<br> .|<br>|<br>.|<br>|<br>.|<br> .|<br>|.|<br> .|56|
|South Afric|a|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|56|
|The Middle East .|..|..|....|...|....||||....|..||||||.||.|57|
|Israel . .|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|'8|
|Egypt..|.|...|....|...|......|.|||||||||||||59|
|Other Middl|e|Ea|ster|n Co|untri|es|||||||||||||59|
|||||||.|.|.|. .|||.|||.|||.||
|Latin America and|t|he|Cari|bbe|an . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|59|
|Cuba..<br>|<br>|...<br>|....<br>|...<br>|.....<br>|...<br>|||||||||||||6)<br>|
|Mexico . .|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|6L|
|El Salvador||.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|62|
|Venezuela|||||||||||||||||||62|
|<br>Colombia..|.<br>|. <br>.|. . <br>....|. . <br>...|. . .<br>.....|. . <br>.....|. . <br>|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|63|
|<br>Haiti....||<br>|<br>....|<br>...|<br>......|<br>...|||||||||||||6.|
|Other Latin|A|me|rica|n an|d Cari|bbean|Cou|n|tries|.||.||.|.||.|.|64|
|Europe . . . . .|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|65|
|<br>Belgium<br>.|.|.|. .|.|....|......|..||||..|.|.|||||.|66|
|<br>Federal Rep|ub|li|c of|Ger|many|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|66|
|France ...<br>|.<br>|...<br>|....<br>|...<br>|.....<br>|.<br>|||||||||||||67<br>|
|United King|d|om|...|....|.....|.....|...||||||||||||67|
|<br>Ireland<br>.|<br>..|<br>.:|<br>. .|<br>...|<br>.|<br>....|<br>...|<br>..|.....||||||||||68|
|Italy<br>. .|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|68|
|Netherlands||.|..|..|..|..|. .|.|...|.||.||.|.|||.|69|
|<br>Norway ...|<br>.|<br>.|<br> . .|<br> . .|<br><br>.|<br>....|<br>..|<br>.|<br> . . .|<br> .|<br>|<br> .|<br>|<br>.|<br> .|||.|69|
|<br>Poland ...|<br>.|<br>.|. .|. .|.|....|..|.|. . .|.||.||.|.|||.|69|
|Portual|||||||||||||||||||70|
|g .|..|.|. .|. .|.|...|...|.|. . .|.||.||.|.|||.||
|Sweden ...|.|.|. .|. .|.|....|..|.|. . .|.||.||.|.|||.|70|
|Turkey ...|.|.|. .|. .|.|....|..|.|. . .|.||.||.|.|||.|70|
|<br>Romania<br>.|<br>..|<br>..|....|...|.....|......|.||||||||||||70|
|Yuoslavia|||||||||||||||||||71|
|g|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.||
|Appendix . . . .|.|.|. .|. .|. . .|. .|. .|.|. . .|.||.||.|.||.|.|72|
|References .....|.|...|....|...|.....|.....|||||||||||||77|
# ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The advice and assistance of the following individuals, who provided current information and views about the course of international migration in particular countries or regions, is greatly appreciated: Reginald Appleyard, Jorge Balan, Luis Castro, M. Chan, Robert W. Gardner, Jean-Pierre Garson, Michael Giles, Jofred Grinblat, Shiro Horiuchi, Graeme Hugo, Joseph Man-Kong Lee, Paulina Makinwa-Adebusoye, Mark Miller, Michael Moore, Jeanine Perreault, D. Bruce Petrie, John Salt, Patience Stephens, Georges Tapinos, and Y. C. Yu. I would also like to thank Rodolfo A. Bulatao for his encouragement and useful comments throughout the course of this project.
_"Among the demographic phenomena determining the size and structure of a population, migration Is undoubtedly the most complex."_ Hania Zlotnick (1987a:v)

# INTRODUCTION

This report reviews the World Bank's latest international migration statistics for every country in the world for each five-year period from 1980-2000. The estimates and projections of net international migration during this period will be used as input statistics for the forthcoming edition of the World Population Projections. This review is based partially on international migration statistics published by national immigration agencies, statistical organizations, and other official and unofficial sources. Statistics on international labor migration come from sources in the labor-importing and labor-exporting countries. In addition, I have consulted country population estimates and projections produced by international and regional agencies (such as the United Nations, OECD, and SOPEMI), national census and statistics offices, other government organizations, inter-agency task forces, and research institutions. Where appropriate, information on international migration intentions has been taken into account, sucb as the intentions data incorporated in Survey Research Hong Kong's Confidence Index. Some of the major sources consulted for worldwide data are listed below. Sources relevant to a single country or region are listed in the references.

(1) World Bank, 1988, World PoRulation Projections. 1987-88 Edition: Short- and Long-Term Estimates, (2) Information from previous World Bank reviews of international migration data, (3) United Nations, 1986, World Population Prospects: Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1984, (4) United Nations, 1984, Population Projections: Methodology of the United Nations, (5) United Nations review of national policies toward immigration and emigration, contained in United Nations, 1987, Global PoRulation Policy Database, (6) United Nations, 1988, World Population Trends and Policies: 1987 Monitoring Resort, (7) U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1983, World PoDulation: Recent DemograRhic Estimates for the Countries and Regions of the World.

(8) U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1981, DemograRhic Estimates for Countries with a PoRulation of 10 Million or More,
2 (9) U.S. Bureau of the Census, various years and countries, Country Demographic Profiles, (10) U.S. Committee for Refugees, recent years, World<sup>Refugee</sup> Survey, and (11) Refugee Reports and data from the United Nations High Commission for Refugees.

In some of these sources, the international migration assumptions are not stated explicitly or are buried in footnotes that<sup>do not always convey</sup> complete information. However, it is possible<sup>to obtain projections of</sup> international migration from multiple sources that are reasonably comparable.

The evaluation of international migration estimates and projections is hampered by problems of data coverage and quality, as<sup>well as definitional and</sup> methodological problems. As might be expected, the coverage of<sup>international</sup> migration statistics is quite spotty, the statistics<sup>are of variable quality,</sup> and there is little consensus on the future course<sup>of international</sup> migration flows. Migration statistics are generally collected for<sup>administrative</sup> purposes only (primarily with regard to the enforcement<sup>of immigration</sup> legislation) and little thought is given to their use for research<sup>or</sup> programmatic purposes. Although there have been United Nations recommendations on the collection of comparable international migration statistics since 1953 and other organizations such as the International Labor Office and the International Statistical Institute have made efforts to standardize international migration statistics, very few countries have chosen to design their own statistics to be consistent with<sup>international</sup> recommendations (Kraly and Gnanasekaran, 1987; Simmons, 1987; Kelly, 1987). In fact, a recent conference on international migration statistics concluded that the attainment of homogeneity in international migration statistics is not even a feasible goal at the current time (Zlotnick,<sup>1987b:1543).</sup> The World Bank's estimates and projections include as<sup>migrants primarily</sup> those persons who are likely to remain permanently<sup>in the receiving countries.</sup> In the principal receiving countries, the statistics<sup>on immigrants who are</sup> legally admitted for permanent residence are reasonably<sup>accurate. However,</sup> legal admission for permanent residence does not necessarily<sup>fit the World</sup> Bank's definition of permanent residence. For<sup>example, there are thousands of</sup> persons in such origin areas as Hong Kong, Korea,<sup>and Taiwan, who have</sup> received green cards for permanent residence in the<sup>United States, but who</sup> continue to live in their-home countries. They visit<sup>the U.S. only often</sup> enough to maintain the validity of their permanent<sup>residence cards. Although</sup> they maintain the ability to physically move to the United<sup>States at a later</sup> date should they choose to do so, they cannot<sup>be considered U.S. residents at</sup> the present time. Unfortunately, no precise estimates have been made of the extent of this phenomenon.

While statistics on legal immigration are adequate<sup>for most large</sup> receiving countries, two other components of net international migration are poorly measured -- emigration and illegal or undocumented migration. The largest destination country -- the United States -- has not<sup>collected any</sup>
3 emigration statistics since 1957 and the indirect estimates that have been made are not entirely reliable. Even less is known about illegal immigration in the United States and elsewhere. Estimates of the stock of illegal immigrants in the United States have varied from 1.5 million to 12 million in the past few years. Although there is no supporting evidence for figures in the upper half of that range, even the most careful estimates range from about two to four million. There is even less of a consensus on the magnitude of net annual flows of illegal migrants. Illegal migration is also a major phenomenon in some countries in Latin America, Asia, Europe, and Africa. Measurement is further complicated by the existence in many areas of nomadic tribes who pay little attention to international boundaries. Measuring international migration is a major problem in parts of Africa where international borders have historically had little significance.

Finally, even in situations in which the measurement of international migration is reasonably accurate, statistics are rarely broken down by age group and only sometimes broken down by the sex of the migrants. All of the above considerations make it difficult to measure recent levels of international migration with any degree of accuracy or to provide a sound basis for the projection of future international migration flows. International migration is the most poorly documented component of recent trends in population growth, and in many cases it is exceedingly difficult to predict future trends. Future flows depend on economic, social and political circumstances in the countries of origin and destination, as well as changes in immigration and emigration laws in both sending and receiving countries, all of which are difficult to predict in their own right.

Therefore, estimates and projections of net international migration require an unusual degree of subjective decision making and the results do not inspire a high degree of confidence. Fortunately, for the majority of countries, the precise magnitude of international migration makes little difference for the results of population projections. Because international migration is a negligible component of overall population growth in these countries, the projections can be relied on even when there is a fairly wide margin of error in the net international migration assumptions. There are only a few countries for which the net international migration statistics will make a substantial difference.

# OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS

For long-term projections of international migration, it is plausible to assume that net migration for each country will eventually approach zero. That assumption, however, is not reasonable in the short run. With only eleven years remaining between now and the year 2000, it is not plausible to assume that migration to the major receiving countries (the United States, Canada, and Australia) will drop rapidly during the years covered by the World Bank's projections. In fact, for some countries, even the assumption of constant migration throughout the period (which has been adopted by the United Nations for countries with a long history of international migration) should be considered conservative.
4 If the previous World Bank estimates of imm-gration to the major receiving countries should be revised upward (as I argue below), then obviously the estimetes of net emigration for most of the major sending countries will also need to be revised upward. The World Bank estimates for each of the main receiving countries are reviewed below. This is followed by brief reviews of other countties for which changes in the estimates are recommended. Countries for which the current estimates seem quite reasonable and do not require any changes (or for which I do not have sufficient information to recommend changes) are usually not discussed in the text. A summary of the recommendations is given in the appendix.

# MAJOR RECEIVING COUNTRIES

# United States

Immigration to the United States is currently a very significant factor in the total population growth in the country. Between April 1, 1980 and January 1, 1987, for example, 29 percent of the increase in the U.S. population was due to net civilian immigration (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1987). In recent years, the United States has accepted at least as many foreign-born persons for legal permanent residence as all other countries in the world combined (Teitelbaum, 1987). Moreover, a careful consideration of recent trends and patterns in U.S. immigration, the political climate in the United States, lags in the administrative system for legal immigration, and continuing economic disparities between the United States and source countries does not support an assumption of rapidly declining immigration before the end of the century. I would strongly recommend an assumption of 2,775,000 net immigrants for 1980-1985, increasing to a level of 2,900,000 for 1985-90, and declining very gradually thereafter. The reasons for this conclusion are outlined below.

Legal Immigration. As shown below in Table 1, legal immigration to the United States has been fairly constant at an average level of 570,965 from FY1980 to FY1986 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1987). Recently released statistics for FY1987 show a continuation of this trend, with a total immigration level of 601,516 persons in that year (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988a). The FY1986 and FY1987 streams are the largest and second largest annual inflows of legal immigrants to the United States since 1924 (see Figure 1).

The last column of Table 1 indicates that only about 62 percent of total immigrants are new arrivals who apply for permanent residence status from outside the United States. The remaining 38 percent are persons already present in the United States, who adjust their status to become immigrants without leaving the country. About 45 percent of those who adjust their status originally came to the United States as refugees and most of the rest arrived on visitors visas. The majority of status adjusters originally arrived in the United States either in the same year that they became permanent residents or in the previous two years. Although it is important to keep the year of actual arrival in mind, the figures for the total number of immigrants (new arrivals plus status adjusters) still give a reasonable
Figure<sup>1</sup> Iminigrants<sup>Admitted: Flcal Years 1900-87</sup> Thousands ! 1,200 <!-- Start of picture text --> A<br>_<br>750 600<br>UEAi<br>.Ad<br>I.E us<br>1980 1987<br>1970<br>1960<br>1950<br>1940<br>1930<br>1920<br>-.1100 1910<br>Service, 1988a:xviii.<br>and Naturalization<br>,,-2 - Lmigration m<br><!-- End of picture text -->
6 Table . Legal Immigration to the United States, Fiscal Yaars 1980-1987

|Fiscal Year|Number of Immigrants|New Arrivals|
|---|---|---|
|1980|530,639|339,355|
|1981|596,600|378,983|
|1982|594,131|314,676|
|1983|559,763|336,799|
|1984|543,903|344,629|
|1985|570,009|356,365|
|1986|601,708|376,110|
|1987|601,516|386,995|

picture of actual immigration since the status adjusters who arrived in previous years are probably about offset by new arrivals who will not achieve immigrant status until future years.

Although females predominated in immigration streams to the United States throughout the 1970s, the sex distribution has been about even since 1982. Between FY1982 and FY1987, there were 1,721,892 legal male immigrants to the United States and 1,704,635 legal female immigrants (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988a:Table 11). In the last two years for which data are available (FY1986 and FY1987), there were almost an equal number of male and female immigrants (601,015 males and 602,209 females).

Tables 2-4 contain data on the countries of birth of immigrants for the period 1980 to 1987. Table 2 shows all of the major source countries of immigration (country of birth) for the FY1977-FY1987 cohorts of immigrants. Table 3 gives similar information for a select group of countries based on country of last permanent residence. Table 4 indicates the very prominent position that Asia has occupied in recent immigrant flows.

Legal immigration to the United States is comprised of immigrants who are subject to a numerical limitation and those who are exempt from the limitation. Immigrant visas for applicants who are subject to the current numerical limitation of 270,000 annually are allocated according to a preference system which gives primary emphasis to family reunification and secondary emphasis to occupational skills needed in the United States (for an explanation of the system, see LeMay, 1987). This category of immigrants is almost certain to remain constant through the end of the century (or even to increase if there is a change in the immigration law). As of January 1988, there were 2,191,163 active immigrant applicants registered at U.S. consula. offices abroad in the numerically limited preference categories (Bureau of Consular Affairs, 1988:3). These applicants have met all the requirements for immigration to the United States but they must wait for the processing of those with earlier priority dates (based on the date of initial application) before they can secure a visa. At the present rate of intake of preference immigrants, it would take more than eight years to clear the backlog even if no new applications for preference visas were filed during that period (although some of the active visa applicants would drop out of the queue before they received an immigrant visa). Moreover, proposed legislation to
TABLE 2. IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED BY REGION AND SELECTED COUNTRY OF BIRTH FISCAL YEARS 197747

|**Region and countr**of-bi|rthi<br>1977|1978|1979|1 980|1081I|1982 i|<br>1983|1984||19859|8 167|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**AU countries**<br>..<br>|**462,315**<br>|**601,442**<br>|**: 460,348**<br>|**530,639**|**596,600**|**594,131**|**$550763**|**543.903**|**570,009**|**601,1011**|**61,518**|
|**Europe**<br>.<br>...-.....<br> <br>|J70,<br>|10<br>73,10<br>|<br>6**60,64**|**5 72,121**|**66,695**|**69,174**|**58,887 I**<br>|**94,076**<br>|**63043**|6251|**61,174**|
|<br>Austna.....................|<br>400,|<br> <br>467 1|<br> <br>369'|<br>401|367!|<br>339|433|1<br>4421|<br>41|463|<br>483|
|Belgium<br>....................<br>|<br>.<br>377<br><br>|<br>439,<br>|<br>395'<br>|<br>426<br> <br>|1<br>467,<br> <br>|<br>559<br>|538;<br>|<br>537I<br>|<br>5381<br> <br>|<br>620i<br> <br>|<br>638i<br> <br>|
|Czechoslovakia.............<br>Don.nark<br>...................|.<br>575<br> <br>433|744<br> <br>409|763<br>:<br>414|<br>1.051<br> <br>504|<br>793<br> <br>5O8|980<br>483|948<br> <br>513'|1,218<br> <br>512|<br>1,222 <br>1<br>478|1<br>1,118<br>!<br>554~|<br>1.357<br> <br>537|
|a|<br>277|<br> <br> <br>358|<br> <br> <br>327|<br> <br> <br>356|<br><br> <br>317|<br> <br>346|<br> <br> <br>311|<br> <br> <br>264|<br> <br> 290|<br> <br> <br>322|<br><br> I331|
|.....................<br>France.....................|<br>1.618|<br> <br>1.844|<br> <br>1,70|<br> <br>5<br>V05|<br> <br> <br>1.745|<br> <br>1,994|<br> <br> _22061_|<br> <br> I2.135|<br>_j_2,187|<br> <br> <br>2151|<br>8 1~.513<br>|
|Germany..................<br>Germnany.<br>Fed. Rep..........9<br>|6,372<br> <br>_C)_<br>|6.739<br>(1)I<br>|<br>6.314<br> <br>C-)<br>'<br> <br>|<br>..95<br>(*)<br>|8.552<br>I (1I<br>"|<br>_(C_<br> 8467I<br>|_I)(*_<br> <br>6725<br>|<br>_)_0<br>I6,747I<br>|<br>_)_<br> <br>7,109<br> <br>|<br>_C.)_<br> <br>6.991<br> <br>|<br>(0<br> <br>7,210<br> <br>|
|Greece....................|7,838|7.035|<br>5,090|4,699|4.61|:)..I7|2,997 <br>|I**2,865**<br>|<br>**2,579**|<br>**2.5 12**|<br>**2.653**|
|Hungatry<br>....................<br>I|53~<br>1238|<br>941<br>1180|86i1<br>982|<br>819<br>1006|.1<br> <br>9|642<br>949|6132I<br>101|<br> <br>825<br> 1223|<br> <br>1,009<br> <br>1397|<br> <br>1,006<br> <br>1839|<br>994<br> <br>3060|
|resan<br>.<br>...........<br>|:<br>|.<br>|<br>|,<br>|<br>(.<br> <br>|<br><br>|. <br>|.<br>|<br>,<br> <br>|<br>.<br> <br>|<br>.<br> <br>|
|Italy .............<br>..<br>.<br>Netheilands-|7.51 0<br>:<br>1014|7.415 I<br> 1153|6,174<br> <br>1145|5.467<br> <br>1169|<br>4,662I<br> <br>999|<br>3,644<br>1053|3.225 <br> <br>1152|I3,130<br> <br>1242|<br>3.214<br> I1217|<br>3,089<br> <br>1261|<br>2.784<br> <br>1230|
|...............<br>Noiway<br>.....................<br>POL<br>and....................|<br>, <br>.<br>334<br>4.010|,<br> <br>423<br>5.050<br>'|<br>,<br> <br>431<br> <br>4.418<br>I|<br>.<br> <br>403<br>4.725|<br> <br> <br>331<br>I5.|.<br> <br>342<br>014<br>5.874|<br>,<br>409<br> <br>6.427|<br>, <br>375<br>9.466|,<br>361<br>9,464|<br>,<br>354<br>8.48|<br>.<br>326<br>1 7,519|
|l|95||7085|<br>8408|<br>704P|<br> <br>1|<br>21|<br>|<br>|<br>|<br>|
|Portuga<br>....................<br>|.<br>|,"<br>|.<br>|<br>.<br> <br>|<br>,<br> <br>|<br>3.50<br> <br>|3.3<br>|3.77<br>|3,78<br> <br>|3.76<br> <br>|3.912<br> <br>|
|Romna...................|2015|2.037|1,554|<br>1,913|<br>1,974|<br>3.124|2,543|4.004|<br>5.188|<br>5,196|<br>3.837|
|Spain<br>..........|...........<br>2487|.<br>2.297|1.93|31679|<br>1711|<br>1586|1507|<br>1393|<br>1413|<br>1591|<br>1578|
|<br> <br>Sdn|<br>,<br>571|<br> <br>638|<br>750|.<br> <br>766|<br>,<br>832|<br>.<br>874|.<br>870|<br>,<br>974|<br>,<br>1076|<br>.<br> <br>1096|<br>.<br> <br>17|
|wee<br>....................<br>**Swutzevand**<br>.................|<br> <br> <br>6101|<br> <br>706!|<br> <br>665|<br> <br>713|<br>601 I|<br> <br>626|<br>680|<br>620|,<br>729|<br>,<br>677|<br>.05<br>759|
|U.S.S.R....................<br>ii|5,742I<br>|<br>5.161<br>|2,543<br>|<br>10.543<br>|<br>9,223<br>|15.46e<br>|<br>5,214<br>|8.088<br>|3,521<br> <br>|<br>2.588<br>|<br>2.384<br>|
|Unted Kingdom.............<br>|12,477<br>|14.245<br>|13.907<br>|15.485<br>|14,997<br>|14,539<br>|14,830<br>|13.949|<br>13,408|13,657|13.497|
|Ytugoslavis.................|2.791|2,621I|2,171|2,099|2,048|1,416|1,382|1.569|<br>1.662|<br>2011|<br>1.827|
|<br>Other<br>Europe<br>...............|811|<br>851|<br>849|<br>787|<br>863|<br>931|<br>1,140|<br>719|<br> <br>781|<br>,<br>**71**|<br><br>ego|
|**Ads**<br>..|1....<br>15775|9<br>**240776**|**169203**|**230097**|**26434**|**313291**|**277701**|**256627**|**264691**|**26848**|**257684**|
|<br><br>Afghauistan<br>................<br>|,<br>,<br>138<br>|<br>**,**<br> <br>180<br>|**,**<br> <br>353<br> <br>|**,**<br> <br>722<br> <br>|**,**<br> <br>1.881<br> <br>|**,**<br>1.569<br> <br>|**,**<br>2.566<br> <br>|**,**<br>3,222<br> <br>|**,**<br>2,794<br> <br>|**,**<br>2,83<br>|**,**<br>1 2,424<br>|
|Bangladesh<br>.....|590|716|<br>549|<br>532|<br>756|<br>639|<br>787|<br>623|<br>1.146|1,63|4 1,849|
|Burmna<br>|1101|1168|153|121|1063|<br>820|<br>723|<br>719|<br> <br>990|<br> <br>863|<br> <br>941|
|<br>......................<br>|,<br>|.<br> <br>|.<br>|,<br>|,<br>|<br> <br>|<br> <br>|<br> <br>|<br> <br>|<br> <br>|<br><br>|
|Carnborla<br>.................<br>|126<br>|<br>3.67<br>|1.43<br>|2,80<br>|12,74<br>|13,43<br>|18.12|1 1,656<br>|13,56<br>|13,50<br>|1 12,480<br>|
|Chi<br>.....................|19 765<br>|21,33<br>|1 24,27<br>|2 27,65|1 25,80|3(In3||()|()|2|2|
|China<br>Mainl<br>and<br>....<br>|<br>(...(..<br>|<br>.(3)..(..<br>|<br>.(.)<br>|<br> <br>|<br>|<br>27.10<br>|0 25.77<br>|<br>7 23,38<br>|<br>3 24,78<br>|7 25,10<br>|6 25,841<br>|
|CYpnA......................<br>|478|408|3123|<br>279|326|276|265|291|294|307|331|
|Hong Kong<br>..........<br>India<br>|.......<br>5,832<br>18636|5,158<br>20772|4,119<br>19717|3,860<br>22607|4,055<br>21522|4,971<br>21738|5,948<br>25451|5,465<br>24964|5,171<br>26026|<br>5.021<br>26227|<br>4.708<br>27803|
|<br>.................<br> <br>|...... .<br>|,<br>|.<br>|.<br>|,<br>|,<br>|,<br>|,<br> <br>|,<br>|.<br> <br>|,<br> <br>|
|Indonesi.<br>..............|...... 778|694|820|977|1,006|1,194|952I|<br>1.113|1,269|<br>1.183|<br>1.254|
|Iran|4261|5861|8476<br>|10410<br>|11105<br>|10314|11163|13807|<br>18071|<br>1 6505|<br>14426|
|.......................<br>I|,<br>28111|,<br>2188|,<br>21|,<br> 2658|,<br> <br>|.<br>|,<br>|.<br> <br>|,<br>|.<br> <br>|<br>.<br> <br>|
|raq .......................<br>|,<br>|.<br>|,87 <br>|,<br> <br>|<br>2,535<br>|3,105<br>|2.343<br>|<br>2.930<br> <br>|1.951<br>|<br>1,323<br>|<br>1.072<br> <br>|
|Israel ....................<br>Japan|3.008<br>4192|3,276<br>4028|3,093<br>4063|<br>3.517<br>4225|3,542<br>3896|3,356<br>3903|3,239j<br>**40P"'**|<br>3.066<br> <br>**4043**|3,113<br>**4086**|3.790<br>**3959**|<br>3.699<br> <br>**4174**|
|.....................<br>Jordan....................<br>|,<br>2,875<br>|,<br>3,4.63<br>|,<br>3.360<br>|,<br>3.322<br>|.<br>3.825<br> <br>|,<br>,23<br>|**,**<br>2<br>3|<br>**.**<br>2.438<br>|**.**<br>2.998<br>|**.**<br>3,081<br>|<br>**,**<br> <br>3,125<br>|
|Kore.....................|30,917|29,288|29.28|3.2,263|<br>I|3.24|2,.i,I|3302|35,253|35,778|35.849|
|Kuwait....................<br>Laos......................|160<br>237|168<br>4.369|301<br>3.3563<br>I|257<br>5<br>13.970|317<br>15,805 I|266<br>36,528|344<br>23,662|437<br>12,279|503<br>9,133|496<br>7.842|507<br> <br>6,828|
|Lebanion...................|5685|4.556|483|I4136'3|955|3529|2941|3203|3385|3994|<br>4367|
|<br>**Mli**|,<br>455|<br>577|, <br>623|. <br> <br>795|,<br>1033|,<br>1048|.<br>852|,<br>879|,<br>939|,<br>|<br>.<br>11|
|**aaysa**...................<br>Pakistan<br>....................|<br> <br>3,183|<br>3.876|<br>3,967|<br> <br>4,265|.<br>5,288|,<br>4.536|<br>4.807|<br>5.509|<br>S,744|886<br>5,994|.06<br> <br>6,319|
|Philippines.................<br>|<br>39,111<br>|37,216<br>|<br>41.300<br>|<br>42,316<br>|<br>43,772<br>|48,102<br>|41,548<br>|42,788<br>|<br>47,978<br>|<br>52.558<br>|<br><br>50,060<br>|
|**Singapore**<br>.................|308|320|321<br>|322<br>|408|3110|362|377|460|480|469|
|Sri<br>Lanka<br>..................<br>Srik|376<br>1676|375<br>1416|397 <br>1528|<br>397<br>1658|448<br>2127|505<br>23M|472<br>1683|554<br>124|553<br>11|596<br>|630<br>|
|y......................<br>|,|,<br>|.<br> <br>|,<br>|,<br>|.5<br>|,<br>|,7<br>|,58<br>|1,604<br>|1.669<br>|
|Taiwan<br>......................<br>Thailand ...................|3945|(3) )<br>35741|<br>(<br> 3194|()<br>14115|(3)<br>4799|9.884<br>5588|16.698<br>5875|12.478<br>4885|14.895<br>5239|13,42<br>6204|11,931<br> <br>6733|
|<br>Tk|,<br>1758|, <br>158|, <br>74|.<br>233|,<br>2|,<br>2|,<br> <br>|,<br>|.<br>|..<br>|<br>,<br>|
|urey.....................<br>VietnaM...................|,<br>4,629|<br>468.543 I|,<br>22,548|<br>43.483|,766<br>55,631 I|,86I<br>72,553|<br>2:263<br>37.560|1,793<br>37,236 ;|1.69<br>31,895|1.75<br>29.993|1,596<br>24,231|
|Yemen (Sanaa)|<br>376|<br>2581|<br> <br>203!|<br> <br>160|<br>2301|<br> <br>305'|268|<br> <br>324|<br>432|<br> <br>420|<br>1<br>577|
|.............<br>OtterAsia,.......I.........|<br>552|<br>702|<br> <br>718!|<br> <br> <br>898|<br>1<br>I|<br> <br>1<br>771|<br>885!|<br> <br>6851|<br> <br>751|<br> <br> <br>897 1|<br><br> <br>997|
|AfrIca<br>Cape Verde<br>|1015<br> <br>9641|11,524<br>941|12,83<br>765i|3 13,96<br> <br>788|1 15,029<br>_849i_|1434<br>852|15,084<br>594~|15,540<br>591|17,11<br>627|7 17,48<br>76|3 17,724<br>657|
|<br>..............<br>|...<br> <br>|<br>|<br>|<br> <br>|<br>|,<br>|<br>|<br>|<br>|<br>||
|Egypt....................|2.328I<br>|2.836<br>|3,241|'.2.833|3.366|2,800|2,600|2.642|2,802|2.8|3,377|
|<br>Ethiopia|**354**I|<br>539|<br>726|<br> <br>977|<br>1749|<br>1810|<br>2643|<br>2461I<br>|<br> <br>3362<br>|2737<br>|<br>2156|
|....................<br>_Gha_|<br>54|<br> <br>71|<br>88|<br> <br>19I|.<br>|,<br>824|,<br> <br>976|.<br> <br>105<br>|<br>,<br>0<br> 1041|,<br> li6|<br>,<br>1120|
|.................<br>Kena|.........<br>43|<br>516|<br> <br>618|.<br> <br>592|<br> <br>657|<br> <br>601|<br> <br> <br>710|<br>.<br> <br> <br>753|<br> .<br> <br>73|.<br>719|.<br> <br>698|
|y<br>.....................<br>LUberi<br>...........<br>|<br>...........<br>215|.<br> <br>333!|<br>,<br> <br>327'|<br> <br> <br>426|<br> <br> <br>558|<br> <br> <br>593|<br> <br> <br>5181|<br> <br> <br>585|<br> <br> <br>616 1|<br> <br>618 1|<br><br> <br>622|
|**Morocco**...................<br>|41<br> <br>|41<br>|486<br>|<br>465<br> <br>|<br>512<br>|<br>445|<br>479.|<br>506'|<br>570|~<br>6461<br>|<br>635<br>|
|Nief .........................|<br>653'|1,007|1.054|<br>1,896|1,91Ia|2.257|2,354|2.337|2,84|<br>297|328|

**See footntes at end of table.**
8

**TABLE 2. IMMIGRANTS ADMIrErO BY REGION AND SELECTED COUNTRY OF BIRTH FISCAL YEARS 197747-Continuor**

|Regionand country of_blrh_|1977|1978I|<br>97|180|191|1982|196I|198|1985|I1988|1987|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Sierra Leans.1..............|57|212|217|267|277|283I|<br>3191|<br>388|371|323|<br>453|
|Southi Afrnca...............1,98||1,689|2.214<br>|<br>1 960<br>|1,559|1,434|1,261<br>.1,<br>|246<br>|1,210|<br>1,568|<br>1,741<br>|
|Tanzania ...................|02|3011|<br>401I|<br>339|423|304|364 <br>|418<br>|395|370|<br>385|
|Uganda....................|241|3031|<br>284|343|410|304|332I|<br>369|301|401|<br>357|
|<br>OtherAdnca................|1,605|<br>1,875I|1.677I|<br>1,936|1,802|<br>1,807|1.934 I|2.214|2,239|2,194|<br>2,245|
|_Oceania_|4,091|4,396|**4,449**|<br>3.o5i|4,167|3,633|s,sia|<br>,17|-,54|364|,19|
|Australia ...................|1.369|1.565|1,400<br>|<br>1.480I<br>|1,281|1.367|11.273<br>1|<br> <br>1,308|1,362|<br>1,354|<br>1.253<br>|
|Fiji........................<br>|854<br>|809<br>|1,000j<br> <br>|<br>724<br>|1,060<br>|659<br>|712<br>|901<br> <br>|980<br>|972<br> <br>|<br>1.205<br> <br>|
|Now Zealand...............|597|'619I|<br>'599~|'729|'66|842|606~<br>|<br>595<br>|679I|<br>610|<br>591|
|<br>Tonga .....................|<br>489|<br>706!<br>|<br>1<br>809<br>|<br>453|<br>588|<br>561|<br>481I|<br> <br>555|669|510|<br>545|
|<br>Other Oceanias.7............|62|697|1<br>641j|<br>565|592|604|439]|458|364|448|<br>399|
|North**Amoeria**<br>...<br>in,-.|167346|220764|157579 '|164,772|210,427|158,057|188,467|166,706|**162,045**|**207,714**|**216,160**|
|<br> <br>Canada...................12,8<br>|,|,<br>1683<br>|,<br>13.772<br>|<br>13.609<br>|<br>11,191<br>|<br>110786<br>|<br>11.390<br>|<br>10.791<br>|<br>11,385<br>|<br> <br>11,039<br>|<br>1,7<br>|
|Mexico47||9237|52.096<br>|56880<br>|101268<br>|56:106<br>|59:079<br>|57.557|61.077|86533|72351|
|.....................<br>Caribbesan~<br>**.**|114,011|<br>91,361**I**|<br>**74,074**<br>**I**|,<br>**73,296**|,<br> **73,301**|<br>**67,379**|<br>**73,306**|<br>**74,265**|<br> **113,261**|,<br>**1111**<br>**101,632**|,<br>**1102,69911**|
|Antigua-Barbuda<br>..........<br>|<br>835<br>|<br>908<br>|<br> <br>770<br>|<br>972<br>|<br>929<br>|<br>3,234<br>|<br>2,00<br>|<br>953<br>|<br>957<br>|<br> <br>812<br>|<br> <br>874<br> <br>|
|Bahamas The|400|585|651|547|548|577|505|499|533|570|<br>556|
|, .............<br>Barbiados.................2,78<br>|<br>3<br>|<br>2,989<br>|<br>2,461<br>|<br>2,667<br>|<br>2,394<br>|<br>1,961<br>|<br>1.849<br>|<br>1,577<br>|<br>1.625<br>|<br> <br>1,695<br>|<br><br> <br>1,665<br>|
|Cuba.....................69,708||29,754|15,585|15,054|10,858|8,209|8,978|10,599|20,334|33,114|28,916|
|Dominica|572|595|1009|<br>646|721|569|546|442|640|**564**|**740**|
|.................<br>OominicanRepublic........1|<br>1.655|<br>19,458|.<br>17,519I|<br> <br> 17,245|<br> 18.220|<br>17,451|<br>22.058|<br>23,147|<br>23,787|<br>26,175|<br>24,858|
|<br>Grenada..................<br>|<br>1,240<br>|1,208<br>|946<br>|1.198<br>|1,120<br>|1,066<br>|1,154<br>|980<br>|934<br>|1,045<br>|<br>1.098<br>|
|Harti .....................|5,441|6.470|6,433|6,540|6,883|8,779|6,424|9,839|10,165|112,66|614,819|
|Jamaica ..................|<br>11,501|<br>19,265|<br>19,714|<br>116,970|<br>23,569|<br>18,711|<br>19,535|<br>19,822|<br>18,923|<br> <br>19,595|<br>23,148|
|St. Kitts-Nws .............<br>|<br>896<br>|<br> <br>1,014<br>|<br>788<br>|<br>874<br>|<br>887<br>|<br>11.039|<br>2,773<br>|<br>1,648<br>|<br>769<br>|<br> <br>573<br>|<br> <br>Sao<br> <br>|
|St Lucia|545|572|953|1193|733|**58W**|662|484|499|602|<br>496|
|. ..................<br>St. Vincent Ii Grenacines|<br>585|<br>679<br>|<br>639<br>|,<br>763<br>|<br>799|<br>719|<br>767|<br>695|<br>693|<br>635|<br><br> <br>746|
|Trinidad & Tobago.........<br>|6,108|5,973 <br>|5,22<br>|5,154<br>|4,599<br>|3,532<br>|3,158<br>|2,900<br>|2,831<br>|<br>2,691<br>|1<br>**3.543**<br> <br>|
|Other<br>Certibean...........<br>|1.764<br>|<br>1,913<br>|<br>1,~38<br>|<br>3 1,273<br>|1.283<br>|948<br>|891<br>|680<br>|691<br>|895<br> <br>|<br>851<br>|
|Central Amerlica**_,.-**|16,465|20,153|17,547|20,968|24,509|23,626|24,60i|24,0W|26,302|<br>**28,360**|**29,2961**|
|<br>Beltze....................<br>|<br>930|<br>1,033|<br>1,063|<br> 1,120|<br>1,289|<br>2,031|<br>1,585|<br>1,492|<br>1,353<br>|<br> <br> <br>1,385<br> <br>|<br>1.354<br> <br>|
|C-osta RIca................<br> <br>|1,66.4<br>|<br>1.575<br>|1,467<br>|<br>1,535<br>|1,359<br>|1,272<br>|1,182<br>|1,473<br>|1,281<br>|<br>1,356<br>|<br>1,391<br>|
|El<br>Salvador..............I4,42||5,826|**4,479**|6,101|8,210|7,107|6,596|8,787|110,11|6 10,929|10,693|
|<br>Guatemala................3.59<br>|<br>9<br>|<br>3,996<br>|<br>**2,583**<br>|<br>**3,7511**<br>|<br>**3,928**<br>|<br>3.633<br>|<br>**4.090**<br>|<br>3,937<br>|<br>4.389<br>|<br> <br>5,158<br> <br>|<br> <br>5,729<br> <br>|
|Honduras.................<br>|1.626<br>|2,727<br>|2,545<br>|2,552<br> <br>|2,358<br>|3,186<br>|3,619<br>|3.405<br>|3,726<br>|<br>4,532<br> <br>|<br>4,751<br> <br>|
|Nicaragua................|1,850|1.888|1,938|<br>2,337|2,752|3,077<br>|2,983<br>|2,718|2.786|<br>2,082|<br>3,294|
|<br>ranama..................<br>|<br>2,390<br>|3.106<br>|<br>3.472<br>|<br> <br>3,572<br>|<br>4,613<br>|<br>3,320<br>160|<br>2,546<br> <br>|<br>2,276<br>|2,611|<br> <br>2,194<br>|<br><br> <br>2,084<br> <br>|
|Ottar North Amenica<br>........|83|40|90|219|1S$|j|<br>III|5|**-**|130|<br>128|
|South America**.--.**<br>**,.,**|**32,954**|**41,764**|**35,34**|**39,717**|**35,9113**|**35,446**|**36,087**I|**37,460**|**39,058**|**41.674**|<br>**44,365**|
|Argentina ..................<br>|2,787<br>|3,732<br>|2.856<br>|<br>2,815<br>|<br>2,238<br>|<br>2.065<br>|<br>2,029<br>|<br>2.141<br>|<br>1,844<br>|<br> <br>2,187<br> <br>|<br><br> <br>2,108<br> <br>|
|Bolva .....................|699|1,030|751|730|820|750|**823**|918|1,006|<br>1,079|<br>1,170|
|Brazil......................|1,513|<br>1.923|1.450|<br>1,570|1.616|1,475|1.503<br>|1,847<br>|<br>2,272|<br> <br> <br>2.332|<br><br> <br>2,505|
|Chto......................<br>|2,596<br>|3,122<br>|2,289<br>|2.559<br>|2,048<br>|1,911<br> <br>|1,970I<br>|1,912<br>|1,992<br>|<br>2.243<br>|<br>2,140<br>|
|Colombia ..................|8.272|11032|10.637|11289|10335|<br>8.608<br>|9658<br> <br>|11020<br> <br>|111.98|2 11140|8 11.700|
|<br>|<br>|,<br>|<br>|,<br>|,<br>|<br> <br>|,<br> <br>I|,<br> <br>4164|,<br>|,<br> <br>|<br> <br>|
|Ecuador ...................|5,302|5.732|4,363|6.133|5,129|4,127|.<br>|<br>,|4,482|<br>4.516|<br>4.4641|
|Guyana....................<br>|5.718|7,614<br>|7,001<br>|<br>8,361<br>|6,743<br>|10,059 I<br> <br>|8.980<br>1<br> <br>|<br>8,412<br>|8.531<br>|<br>10.387<br> <br>|11,364<br> <br>|
|Peru.......................3903||5243|4135|4.021|4.664|<br>4151 I|<br>4.384|4.388|4,181|<br>4,895<br>|<br>5,901<br>|
|,<br>Uruguay...................|1,156|,<br>1.052|,<br>754|<br>887r|,<br> <br>9 72|<br>,<br>707|<br> <br>6811|<br>712|<br>790|<br> <br>699|<br><br> I<br>709|
|<br>Venezuela|738|990|841|10110|1104|1338|1508|1721|<br>1714|<br>1185|4I1694|
|..................<br>Other South Ameriea .......<br>]|<br> <br>272|<br>294|<br>247|,<br>312|,<br>246|,<br>259I|,<br> <br>308|,<br>245|<br>,<br>264|<br>,<br>294|,<br> <br>435|
|Florn on board shi|||||6I|4I|||<br>|||
|p ...........|-|-|-|||||-|<br>-|-|-|
|Unknownor notrepre.....|**-**|-||||10~|<br>261|<br>31!|1<br>1|3|<br>6|

Prior to fiscal year 1962, eata for Federal Republic of Germanty and German Democaatic Republic are consolidated uinder Germany. Excludes Danzig. Prior to fiscal year 1982, data for MainlanJ China and Taiwan are consiolidated under China. Includes Niue.

-Represents zero.

NOTE: See Glossary for fiscal year definitions.

Source: Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988a:Table3.
9 TAKLE 3. IMMIGRATION BY REGION AND SELECTED COUNTRY OF LAST RESIDENCE FISCAL YEARS 1820.- 1987

|Regionandcountryof<br>r|laat197 - 80<br>esiden|1981<br>!<br>ce'|1982<br>~|1983<br>~~~~~~~|1984<br>~~I1820|1<br>985<br>|18|197168|<br>ye,<br>_-I_|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|AUl countries..,.....|4,493,31|4 596,60|0 S94.13|1559,763|543,9031|570,009|601,708|601,516|<br>53.727..|
|Europe...-<br>-<br>-I.......<br>|600,3668|66,695'|69.1741|<br>58,967|160,6791|<br>69,526|**_69,224_**|67,967|3i|
|<br>Austri-Hungary..............<br>|16,028<br>|I<br>948'<br> <br>|<br>981<br>|<br>1,065|1<br>2.848|1<br>2.521|<br>2,604|<br>2.401|1|
|Austria....................<br>Hungary<br>...|9,478<br>6.550<br>|i<br>367i<br> <br>581'|339<br>6421|433<br>632|2,351<br>des~|1<br>1,930<br>591|<br>2,039<br>565|<br>1,769<br>632||
|Belgium<br>|5329|467|559|538|787|775|843|859||
|<br>..<br>|<br>|.<br>|<br>|<br>|<br> <br>|<br>|<br>|||
|Czechoslova.............ia......<br>|6,023<br>|793.<br>|960<br>|9461<br>|<br>693<br>|684<br>|588|715||
|Denmrwk<br>..........................<br>|4.439<br>|506'<br>|463<br> <br>|513<br>|512<br>|465<br>|544<br>|515<br>||
|France......<br>......<br>Germany<br>|25.069<br>74414|1.7451<br>6552'~|<br>1,994<br>~~~~~~~~~<br>6726|2,061<br>~~<br>7185|3.335<br>9375|3,530<br>10028|3,876<br>95|3,809<br>92|7.t,<br>OS|
|<br>..<br>Grwee................<br>|,<br>92,369|<br>4:361|<br>,.<br>3.472|,<br>,<br>2,997|.<br>3.311|.<br>3,487|,<br>3.497|.<br>4.087|,<br>6Co.|
|Ireland'.......11:490<br>||902!<br>'|949<br>|1.101<br>|1.096<br>|_1,288_<br>|1.757<br>|3,032<br>|4,70,i<br> <br>|
|Italy..................<br>..|129.368|4.682|3,644|3,225|8,328|8.351|5,711|4,668|<br>5.340A|
|Nethertands|10492|999|1053i|<br>1152|1313|1235|1263|1303|<br>370|
|...............<br>Norway-Sweden................|,<br>10,472|<br> <br>1,163|,<br>!<br>1,216|<br>.<br>1.279|,<br>1,455|.<br>1,557|,<br>1,564|,<br> <br>1,540|<br> <br> <br>2. 1(|
|<br>Norway..................<br>.<br>|3.941|3311<br>832|342<br> <br>|409<br>|403<br>|388<br>|367<br>|372<br> <br>|<br>47<br> <br>_*_|
|Sweden....................6.531|||<br>874|870|1,052|1,171|1.197|<br>1.168|<br>_1.24..._|
|Poland....................<br>.<br>|37.234<br>|5.014<br>|5.874<br>|6,427<br> <br>|7,229<br>|7,409<br>|6,540<br>|5,818<br>|b',<br> <br>|
|Portugal.....................<br>|101,710|7,049|3.5140|<br>3.231|3,800|3,811|3,804|4.009|40.,<br>I.|
|<br>Romarnia....................<br>|12,393<br>|I<br>1,9741<br>|<br>3,124<br> <br>|2,543<br>|2,956<br>|3,764<br>|3,609<br>|2,741<br>|1i"<br>|
|Spain.......................|39.141|1,7111|<br>1,586|1,507|2,168|2,278|2,232|2.056||
|<br>Swrwitzlan.<br>.................<br>|8.235<br>|601<br>|626<br>|680<br>|796<br>|980<br>|923<br>|964<br> <br>||
|U.S.S.R...................<br>.|38.961|9. 2231|15,462|5.214|3.349|1,52|1,001|<br>1.139|3.429i|
|United Kingdom'......<br>.<br>......<br>|137,374<br>|14.997i<br>|<br>14.539<br> <br>|14.830<br>|16.516<br>|<br>15.591<br>|<br>18,129<br>|<br> <br>156,88<br> <br>|9<br>5.OEz<br> <br>|
|Yugoslavia..................I|30,0|2.0481|<br>1.418|1.382|1,404|1,521|1,915|<br>1,793|<br>l2b.Z-|
|<br>Other Eutop ................|9.287|'<br>9801|1,018|991|611|719|771|708|19|
|Aala<br>|1,586,1117<br>|6<br>264,3431<br>|<br>313,291<br> <br>|277,701<br>|247,775<br>|**255,64**<br>|256.54<br>|245293<br>|_G,_140k~<br>|
|Chnina......................|124,326|25,8103|<br>36.984|42.475|29,109|33,095|32,389|32.669|sOC|
|Hong Kong..................<br>|<br>113,487<br>|<br>405<br>|<br>471<br>|.48<br>|<br>12,290<br>|<br>10.795<br>|<br>9,930<br>|8,8<br>|~<br>26,<br>|
|India........................<br>I|164.134<br>45136|21.522<br>11105|21.738<br>10314|25,451<br>11163|23.617<br>11131|24.538<br>12327|24,808<br>12031|26,394<br>10323|372.,-<br>**iC**<br>372|
|ran.........................<br>|,<br>|,<br>|,<br>|.<br>|.<br>|.<br>|,<br>|,<br>|<br>.<br>|
|Israel.......................|37,713|3.542|3,356|3.239|4,136|4,279|5,124|4,753|121,.2|
|J|<br>4977|3896|<br>3903|4092|<br>417|<br>42|<br>4444|<br>4711|<br>_2_|
|apan.......................<br>|,5<br>|.<br>|,<br>|.<br>|,5<br>|,55<br>|,<br>|,<br>|"44~<br><br> <br>|
|Korea.....................<br>.|267.638|32.683|31724|33339|32537|34791|35184|35397|5~<br>5'-.|
|<br>Philippines...................<br>|<br>354,987<br>|<br>43,772<br>|,<br>45,102<br>|,<br>41.546<br>|,<br>48,985<br>|,<br>53,137<br>|,<br>61,492<br>|,<br>58.315<br>|_82-7_<br>|
|Turkey......................|13399|2768|2.864|2.263|1652|1690|1975|2.080|404 3|
|<br>Vi|,<br>172820|,<br>631|<br>723|<br>3760|,<br>2803|,<br>20367|,<br>1010|<br>13073|<br> <br>_41_|
|etnam.....................<br> <br>|,<br>|55,<br>|.55<br>|.5<br>|5.<br>|.<br>|5.<br>|.<br>|<br>_..._<br>|
|Ofthe Asia.................<br>.244,|783|59,588|79,782|70,625|55,998|55,595|58.179|51.793|U'.|
|Amewta**_-_**<br>'"|1,982,529<br>|246,340<br> <br>|193,605<br> <br>|204,574<br> <br>|206,111<br>|225,519<br> <br>|254,076<br>|<br>265,026<br> <br>|<br>1,4<br> <br>|
|Canada & Newfoundland|169,939<br>|<br>11.191<br>|<br>10,786<br> <br>|<br>11,390<br> <br>|1 15,659<br> <br>|<br>16,'35<br> <br>|4 16.06<br> <br>|<br>16,74<br> <br>|<br>4.2..L<br> <br>|
|MeIeco"4....................<br>|640.294<br>|101.268<br>|<br>58,108<br>|<br>59,079<br>|<br>57.820<br>|<br>61.290<br>|<br>66,753<br>|<br>72,511<br>|<br>2,70!<br> <br>|
|Ibbeamn.I|**741,126**|**73,301**|**67,379**|**73,306**|**60,368**|**79,374**|**06,527**|**100,615**|<br>**2,3S!,t~**|
|Cuba|<br>264863|<br>10 858~|<br>8209|<br>8978|<br>56991|<br> <br>17115|<br>30787|<br>27363|<br> <br>'6613|
|.....................<br>Dominican Republic.........|.<br>148.135|<br>18.220|,<br>17.451|.<br>22.058|.<br>23.2071|<br>,<br> <br>23.861|.<br>26,216|,<br>24,947|.<br>4C,'.2'|
|<br>Haiti......................<br>|56,335<br>|6,683<br>|8.779<br>|8.424<br>|9.554<br>|9,872<br>|12,356<br>|14,643<br>|***'165**<br>~<br>|
|Jamaica...................<br>Othtw Caribbeaui............<br>|137.577<br>134.216<br>|23,569<br>13.9711<br>|18,711<br> <br>14,229<br> <br>|19.535<br>14.311<br>|18.997<br>10,911<br>|18.277<br>10.249<br>|18.916<br>10,252<br>|22,430<br>11.232<br>|'361,7<br>795.2<br>|
|Central Anrmerc<br>..|**134,640**|**24,5091**|<br>**23,626**|**24,601**|**27,626**|**26,447**|**30,066**|**30,366**|54CC.,|
|**South**AmerIca|<br>295741|<br>35913'|<br> <br>35448|<br>**36087**|<br>**386436**|<br> <br>**40052**|<br>**42650**|<br>**44762**|**_10620'_**|
|<br>Argentina..................|,<br>29,697|,<br>2,236|.<br>2,065|**.**<br>2.029|**,**<br>2.287|<br>**,**<br>1.925|**,**<br>2,318|**,**<br>2.192|**_,,_**<br>'114.1'01|
|<br>Colombia..................<br>|<br>77,348<br>|<br>10,335<br>|<br>8.608<br> <br>|9.658<br>|10,897<br>|11.8021<br>|<br> <br>11,213<br>|11.482<br>|'241,4:25<br>|
|Ecuador...................<br>Other Souith America......<br>|50.078<br>138,418<br>|5.1291<br>lb,:21<br>|<br>4,127<br>3120.648<br>|4.243<br>20.157|4,244<br>21,208|4.601!<br>21.724i|4.518<br> <br>24.Z,-l1<br>|4,656<br> <br>26,452|'o128.2117<br>578,2172|
|Other America..............|789|158j|160|ill|_2_|21|2|11|109.9-17|
|Africa........................<br>tli&N Zld|80.779<br>237168|15,029!'<br>19471|<br>14.314<br> <br>20091|15,084<br> <br>1'9|13,594<br>2328|15236<br>2501|15,500<br>2423|<br>15,730<br>2312|261,. 7<br>138|
|usraa ew eaan......<br>-'-ftcicslands (U.S. adm.)|,<br>1808|.<br>108l|<br>.<br>138|<br>,e<br>105|.<br>163|,<br>142|.<br>178|,<br>168|,<br>22.E|
|<br>tspecified"?................|,<br>15.866|<br>2,1381|<br> <br>1,7001|<br> <br>1.553|<br>2.053,|1,921,|<br> <br>1.759~|<br> <br>2.022|299t 2|

Data for years Prior to 1906 relate to Country whence alien came; data from 1906-79 andi 1964.87 are for country of last permnanent reSidence; **and** data for 1980483 refer to country of birth. Because of Changes in boundaries, changes in lists of countries, andlack of data for specified countries for various perods,t data for certain counitnes. especially for the total perod 1820.1987. are not comparable throughout Data for specified countries are included with countries to which they belonged prior to World War 1.

*Data for Austria-Hurogary not reported until 1881. Data for Austria and Hungary not reported separately until 1906.

4No data available for Czechoslovakia until 1920.

"Prior to 1926, **data for** Northern Ireland included in Ireland.

Source: Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988a:Table 2.
# TABLE 4. IMMIGRANTS<sup>ADMITTED FOR TOP 15</sup> COUNTRIES OF BIRTH<sup>!NFISCAL YEAR 1987</sup>

(Number **of** Immigrants)

|||1986|Cha<br>Nmber|nge<br>Percent|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Country**o1**Birth|**1987**||u||
|Total|601,516|601,708|-192|**-**|
|1) Mexico|72,351<br>|66,533<br>|+ 5,818<br>|+8.7<br>|
|2) Philippines<br>|50,060<br>|52,558<br>|-2,498<br>|-4.8<br>|
|3) Korea|35,849<br>|35,776<br>|+73<br>|+0.2<br>|
|4) Cuba|28,916<br>|33,114<br>|-4,198<br>|-12.7<br>|
|**5)**India|27,803|26,227|+11,576|+6.0|
|6) China, Mainland|25,841<br>|25,106<br>|+ 735<br>|+2.9<br>|
|**7)**Dominican<br>Republic|24,858<br>|26,175<br>|-1,317<br>|-5.0<br>|
|8) Vietnam|24,231<br>|29,993<br>|-5,762<br>|-19.2<br>|
|9) Jamaica|23,148<br>|19,595<br>|+3,553<br>|+18.1<br>|
|10)**Halti**|14,819|12,666|+2,153|+17.0|
|11) Iran|14,426<br>|16,505<br>|-2,079<br>|-12.6<br>|
|**12)**United Kingdom|13,497<br>|13,657<br>|-160<br>|-1.2<br>|
|13) Cambodia|12,460<br>|13,501<br>|-1,041<br>|- 7.7<br>|
|14) Taiwan|11,931<br>|13,424<br>|-1,493<br>|-11.1<br>|
|15) Canada|11,876|11,039|+837|+7.6<br>|
|Other|209,450|205,439|+ 3,611|+ 1.8|

## -Reprusents **ero.**

Source: Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988b:Table 3.
11 delete or limit certain preference categories would reallocate visas to other categories and would not reduce the total number of preference immigrants.

Immigrants who are not subject to the numerical limitation primarily fall in two categories -- immediate relatives of U.S. citizens (IR immigrants) and refugees. The immediate relative component of legal immigration has shown a steady annual increase since 1977 (see Figure 2) and the General Accounting Office projects that this component is likely to continue increasing (General Accounting Office, 1988). According to recently released statistics for FY1987, there were 218,575 IR immigrants in that year (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988a: Table 4), slightly lower than the 223,468 IR immigrants in FY1986 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988a: Table 7). IR immigration increased at an average annual growth rate of 7 percent from FY1980 to FY1986, before dropping by 2.2 percent in FY1987.

IR immigration depends, to a some extent, on the level of naturalization, since naturalized citizens become immediately eligible to petition their spouses, unmarried minor children, and parents to immigrate. It should be noted, however, that the majority of IR immigrants are petitioned by native-born relatives, not by naturalized citizens. The General Accounting Office found that 64 percent of a sample of IR immigrants in FY1985 were petitioned by native-born petitioners (General Accounting Office, 1988). The majority of Asian IR immigrants, however, were petitioned by naturalized U.S. citizens.

Naturalizations have been increasing very rapidly during the 1980s. The number of persons naturalized increased by 78 percent in just six years, from 157,938 in FY1980 to 280,623 in FY1986 before dropping to 227,008 in FY1987 (see Table 5). There are, however, substantial lags in the naturalization and petitioning process. The GAO found that the average time between arrival of a naturalized petitioner in the United States and the attainment of immigrant status by their exempt immediate relatives in 1985 was 12.4 years. The components of this figure were 8.2 years for the average petitioner to Table 5. Persons Naturalized, Fiscal Years 1980-1987

|Fiscal Year|Persons Naturalized|
|---|---|
|1980|157,938|
|1981|166,317|
|1-982|173,688|
|1983|178,948|
|1984|197,023|
|1985|244,717|
|1986|280,623|
|1987|227,008|

Source: Immigration and Naturalization Service (1988a: Table 47). Note: Approximately 23,000 naturalization cases are missing for FY1984.
<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 2. Annual Exempt-Immediate-Relative Immigration to the United States in Fiscal Years 1972-85<br>200 Thousands<br>180<br>160<br>140<br>120<br>100<br>s<br>60<br>40'<br>20<br>0<br>1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 198, 1964 1965<br>Fial Year<br>1976 data<br>Note: These data do not include reugees. Fiscal year 1976 includes Juy-September<br>30 of Xt respecnw yw.<br>Since October 1, 1977, the data are for fiscal years ending September<br>Source: U.S. Immigradon and Naturalization Service, Immigrant Public Use Tapes, Wasungton<br>D.C., fiscaiyears 1972-85., General Accounting offfice, 1<br><!-- End of picture text -->
13 naturalize after immigrating, 3.6 years between naturalization and petitioning (although there is no legal waiting period required), and less than one year for an exempt IR to get an immigrant visa after being petitioned. This suggests that there is a substantial future potential for the immigration of immediate relatives of the large number of persons who have immigrated to the United States in the last 10-15 years.

The number of immediate relatives petitioned in the last half of the 1990s is likely to increase further because of the amnesty provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. Under the provisions of the act, the more than 1.5 million aliens who were recently legalized will eventually be able to petition their immediate relatives after the amnestied aliens become citizens. On their amnesty application forms, the amnestied aliens listed more than 2.5 million spouses, children, and parents, almost 900,000 of whom are already illegally in the United States. Under U.S. immigration law, there is no limit to the number of these relatives who may immigrate, or who may become legal permanent residents if they are already in the United States. The applicants for the regular amnesty program come primarily from Mexico (73.3 percent), El Salvador (6.5 percent), Haiti (2.7 percent), Guatemala (2.2 percent), and the Philippines (1.0 percent). In all, 55.5 percent of the regular amnesty applicants are males.

Moreover, approximately 1.3 million additional Seasonal Agricultural Workers (SAW) applied for SAW amnesty by that program's deadline. The SAW amnesty program allows illegal aliens who worked in agriculture for at least 90 days between April 1, 1985 and May 1, 1986 to eventually become permanent resident aliens. In all, 83.2 percent of the current SAW applicants are Mexicans, 4.6 percent are Haitians, 1.7 percent are from El Salvador, and 1.6 percent are from India (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988c). SAW applications are highly skewed toward males, who constitute 84 percent of the applicant pool. It is too early to tell how many of the SAW applications will be approved (since a substantial amount of fraud has been detected in the program), but the SAW program will add a very large number of legal immigrants during the next few years and will eventually allow a large number of their immediate relatives to be petitioned.

The final category of legal immigrants is refugees (see Figure 3 and Table 6). The number of refugees allowed to immigrate to the United States is determined each year by the President of the United States in consultation with the U.S. Congress. The first column of Table 6 shows the authorized number of refugee admissions since FY1980. The authorized level dropped steadily through FY1987 but it increased again in FY1988. President Reagan initially proposed to limit FY1988 admissions to 72,500, but he increased the limit by 15,000 in May, 1988, mainly to accommodate an unexpected number Armenians from the Soviet Union. For FY1989, President Reagan is proposing the admission of up to 94,000 refugees. The second column of Table 6 indicates that actual refugee admissions are usually considerably lower than the legal ceiling, although the discrepancy has narrowed considerably since 1984. Refugee admissions are further confused by the existence of a third category of "refugees and asylees granted lawful permanent resident status" (see the final column of Table 6). These are primarily persons who adjust their status to become permanent residents after they have arrived in the
Figure 3 ACTUAL REFUGEE ADMISSIONS TO THE<sup>U.S.</sup> AND CEILINGS ON REFUGEE ADMISSIONS, FY 75-87 (As of September 30, 1987) <!-- Start of picture text --> Total Refugews<br>250.000<br>225,000<br>200,000 0<br>-<br>175,000 Ceiling<br>i50,000 -<br>125.000 -<br>100,000 a<br>-<br>75,000 jt~^^__<br>50;00 i<br>1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988<br>Fiscal Year<br>Source: Refugee Reports, December 18, 1987, page 9.<br><!-- End of picture text -->
15 llnited States earlier in refugee status. Refugees are eligible to adjust to lawful permanent resident status after one year of continuous residence in the United States, although many refugees do not adjust their status until they have been in the United States for several years. Annual adjustments of refugees and asylees have not fallen below 90,000 per year since FY1980 and they are likely to maintain about this level for the next 5-10 years. New international conflicts could further increase refugee admissions.

Table 6. Refugee Admissions to the United States since Fiscal Year 1980

|Fiscal Year|Authorized<br>Admissions|<br>Actual<br>Admissions|Refugee and Asylee<br>Adjustments to<br>Immigrant Status|
|---|---|---|---|
|1980|231,700|207,116|<br>88,057|
|1981|217,000|159,252|<br>107,573|
|1982|140,000|97,355|156,601|
|1983|90,000|61,681|102,685|
|1984|72,000|71,113|92,127|
|1985|70,000|68,045|95,040|
|1986|67,000|62,440|104,383|
|1987|70,000|64,831|96,474|

Sources: Immigration and Naturalization Service (1988b, 1987); Refugee Reports 10/16/87, 12/18/87); Now York Times (9/14/88).

Although the World Bank normally allocates refugees back to their country of origin, particularly if they are in countries of first asylum, the refugees to the United States that are enumerated above are clearly permanent. residents of the United States. Even if the conflicts that drove them out of their home countries were to be resolved, few of the refugees would return home. Therefore, future projections of immigration to the United States must include a substantial number of refugees. The best guess about the future course of refugee admissions would be the average level of 65,000 annually over the last five years. This is close to the annual level of 62,250 that the General Accounting Office assumes for refugees from 1987 to 1990 (General Accounting Office, 1988). According to the GAO, 54.4 percent of the refugees will be males and 90 percent of the refugees will originate from Indo-China (although the Indo-Chinese component may decrease in the future).

Emigration from the United States. Emigration figures are difficult to come by since the United States has not collected any emigration data since 1958. Indirect estimates of emigration, which need to be interpreted cautiously, indicate that there is a substantial amount of emigration. Warren and Kraly (1985) found that over 9 million non-U.S. citizens are estimated to have emigrated from the United States between 1900 and 1979, compared to an inflow of about 30 million immigrants during the same period. In the most recent period, 1970-1979, they estimated that 1,176,000 non-U.S. citizens emigrated compared to an inflow of 4,334,000 immigrants. Warren and Peck
16 (1980) estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of whom 58 percent were women. Jasso and Rosenzweig (1982) concluded that the emigration rates varied substantially among countries, with relatively high emigration rates for North and South America and Eu-ope and relatively low emigration rates for most of Asia. Finally, Warren and Passel (1987) estimated the average emigration rate for legal immigrants from 40 source countries between 1965 and 1979 to be approximately 30 emigrants per 100 immigrants.

Emigration is partly offset by the number of foreigners receiving U.S. immigrant visas but not undertaking permanent residence in the United States. There are no reliable data on this latter group, but immigration officials agree that it is substantial, particularly in Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Thousands of legal immigrants from these areas maintain their residence in their home countries and visit the United States only often enough to retain their green cards. They may move to the United States at a later time if economic conditions or personal circumstances so dictate, but they should not be counted as immigrants to the United States at the time they obtain their permanent resident status.

In addition to foreign-born emigrants, there is a smaller number of U.S.-born emigrants, many of whom are retirees hoping to stretch their savings and retirement income by living in low-cost countries. The current best estimates of the extent of total emigration are those that are used by the United States Bureau of the Census. These are based on their own data sources (such as the Current Population Survey) and on an evaluation of the most recent information available in the literature. The current accepted estimate of the emigration flow is 160,000 persons annually, of whom 133,000 are foreign-born and 27,000 are native-born. In the absence of any better information, these estimates are reasonable for both the current situation and projections of emigration through the year 2000.

Net Legal Migration. For the period 1980-1985, the annual level of legal immigration to the United States averaged 570,912 (calculated by adding immigration from fiscal years 1981-1984 plus one-quarter of FY1980 plus threequarters of FY1985). The average annual level of legal immigration from 1985 to 1987 has been 598,101. It is likely that at least the level of legal immigration recorded in the last two years will continue through the year 2000. We might subtract about 5-10 thousand persons per year who attain immigrant status but do not actually take up residence in the United States (this figure is net of the number who attained immigrant status in previous years but only took up pefmanent residence in later years). This would leave an average annual level of gross immigration of about 565,000 for 1980-1985 and 590,000 from 1985 onwards. If the estimated emigration of 160,000 persons per year is assumed to be constant throughout the period, then net annual legal immigration would be 405,000 in 1980-1985 and 430,000 in 1985-2000. Although it could be argued that the figures for 1985-1990 should be augmented by at least 100,000 annually to take account of the SAW immigrants regularized under the amnesty law and the 1980-1985 figures should similarly be increased because many of the other 1.5 million persons given amnesty originally came to the United States in 1980-1982, we will not adjust the legal figures and will
17 try to factor amnestied immigrants into the illegal immigration component, according to their initial status upon arrival in the United States.

Illegal/Undocumented Immigration. Illegal immigration is the most difficult component af international migration to estimate reliably. Estimates of illegal immigration rely on a number of different methods, including the following: direct counts through sample surveys, censuses and surveys in countries of origin, the Delphi method, apprehension statistics, matching studies, migration histories, comparisons of different data sources, analysis of vital statistics, and airline traffic statistics. Estimates of the stock of undocumented immigrants in the United States vary widely and estimates of the net annual flow are even more difficult to come by. Nevertheless, it appears that permanent illegal immigration in the 1980s has been much smaller than has often been suggested (Bean and de la Garza, 1986).

Some analysts have suggested that as many as 500,000 illegal immigrants are added to the U.S. population every year, but there is no evidence to support this conclusion. Many of these estimates are based on the large number of undocumented immigrants apprehended each year by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Since 1977, an average of more than one million apprehensions have been made annually with the largest number (1,767,400) being apprehended in FY1986 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988a: Table 59). However, apprehension statistics cannot give any more than a crude indication of the level of permanent illegal immigration for several reasons. First, return migration among undocumented immigrants who do elude detection is very substantial. In recent years, more evidence has become available on the circular nature of undocumented immigration. Second, it is not clear whether an increase in apprehensions suggests an increase in those who get through or a decrease because of more effective enforcement. Finally, there is substantial double-counting in the illegal immigration accounting system since the same individual may be apprehended many times. In fact, the "revolving door" operates so efficiently that at least one individual was apprehended and returned to Mexico five times in the same day.

Estimates of the stock of illegal immigrants at various points in time do not support the existence of very large-scale net flows of illegal immigrants in recent years. A 1978 review of immigration studies by the Select Committee on Population of the U.S. House of Representatives concluded that most objective experts pegged the stock of illegal immigrants at 3-6 million at that time (Select Committee on Population, 1978). A similar review by the Committee on Population and Demography of the National Academy of Sciences in 1985 concluded that the stock of illegal immigrants was probably lower than the 3-6 million estimated seven years earlier. As part of the NAS study, Hill (1985) concluded that a stock of 1.5 to 3.5 million illegal aliens in 1980 is reasonably consistent with most studies. Moreover, he found no empirical basis for the belief that the illegal immigrant population increased sharply in the early 1980s.

In assessing the effect of illegal immigration on net international migration to the United States, it is important to note that many illegal immigrants eventually obtain green cards and become legal residents (Houstoun, 1983). Therefore, we have to be careful not to double count these immigrants
18 by counting them first as illegal immigrants when they arrive in the United States and again as legal immigrants when they acquire permanent resident status.

Recent estimates of the undocumented population counted in the 1980 census and in the Current Population Surveys suggest that the number of undocumented immigrants is growing. Passel and Woodrow (1986) estimated that the undocumented population grew by 100,000-300,000 annually between 1979 and 1983. More recently, it has been estimated that by June 1986 the illegal population was probably growing by 100,000-200,000 persons per year (Woodrow, Passel, and Warren, 1987a,b). On the basis of these and other studies, I would recommend a level of net illegal immigration of 150,000 per year. A smaller figure than that would be inconsistent with the large number of illegal immigrants who have taken advantage of the amnesty provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. No information is available on the year that l_galization applicants first arrived in the United States or established residence, but applicants were asked for their year of last entry to the United States. For persons applying for amnesty by October 1987 (about half of the total applying through the end of the program), about one-third last entered the United States between mid-1980 and mid-1985 (Hoefer, 1988). An additional 5 percent said they last entered after mid-1985 (although they are required to have been living in the United States cortinuously since January 1, 1982 in order to qualify for amnesty). Overall, 89 percent of the Special Agricultural Workers (SAW applicants) last entered the United States after January 1, 1982. If these same percentages hold true for all amnesty applicants, then it is clear that gross illegal immigration in the 1980s must be considerably higher than 100,000 annually. In fact, the United States Bureau of the Census now uses a net illegal immigration figure of 200,000 per year for each year since 1980.

The Immigration Reform and Control Act was designed to reduce the future incidence of illegal immigration. It appears, however, that illegal flows are continuing to be strong. New illegal immigrants may find it more difficult to obtain factory jobs but there will continue to be ample jobs in the informal sector for the foreseeable future. Given the income disparities between the source countries for illegal immigrants and the United States, it is unlikely that the annual flow of undocumented immigrants will fall substantially before the year 2000.

Little is known about the characteristics of undocumented immigrants. There is a consensus that a majority of illegal immigrants (probably about 60 percent) are Mexican. The illegal flow also appears to be disproportionately male. Of the 2.06 million illegal aliens counted in the 1980 census, 53 - percent were male (sex ratio 114). The sex ratio is even higher for illegal immigrants from Mexico (131 for those who entered from 1975 to 1980). It is probable that the sex ratio is somewhat higher for undocumented immigrants not counted in the census since they are likely to be more transient. Therefore, an overall sex ratio of about 120 seems most defensible.

The political and economic climate. In recent years, less than 20 percent of legal immigration to the United States has originated in economically developed countries. There is no question that economic
19 disparities between the United States and the major sending countries are an important incentive for immigration. Although it is difficult to predict the future course of economic change in the United States and in the sending countries, large disparities will continue to exist through the year 2000. If the employer sanctions provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) are strictly enforced, then illegal immigration in the future may decline somewhat. But any decline is likely to be short-lived. If the enforcement of IRCA results in wage inflation in the United States, then pressures to seek low wage foreign workers (both legal and illegal) will become even stronger. Moreover, demographic factors may support a continued high level of immigration. The so-called "baby bust" cohort will be entering the labor fcrce between now and the end of the century and this relatively small cohort will be hard-pressed to fill all the entry-level positions that will be produced by the economy.

Future projected changes in immigration legislation also need to be taken into account when projecting international migration. However, just as a weather forecaster learns never to look out the window when forecasting weather, in projecting international migration it is important not to be influenced too much by very recent legislative proposals and changes in public attitudes. Although the future of immigration legislation in the next 11 years is uncertain, there does not appear to be any concerted effort to decrease the level of legal immigration. There is a reasonable chance for passage of legislation in the current congress that would put an overall ceiling on the total level of legal immigration for the first time in U.S. history. Although no ceiling was passed before the close of the 100th Congress, the cap in the legislation that had the best chance of passage was substantially larger than the current level of legal immigration.

The Kennedy-Simpson Immigration Act of 1988, which passed in the Senate but not in the House of Representatives, would have placed an annual limit on legal immigration of 590,000 not including refugees. The House bill would have increased the proposed annual limit to 670,000 immigrants, again not including refugees. Both bills would have revised the preference system to give a higher priority to more immediate family members and to place more emphasis on occupational skills in the selection process. The Rodino bill in the House of Representatives would have added 150,000 immigrant visas every year to encourage so-called "new seed" immigrants who are not family members of U.S. citizens or permanent residents. The bill also would have provided for 800,000 visas for the close relatives of amnesty immigrants and 10,000 visas per year (double the provision in the current law) for admitting immigrants from countries that were adversely affected by the 1965 amendments to the Immigration and Nationality Act which abolished national origin quotas. The last provision would favor immigrants from such European countries as Ireland, Italy, and Poland.

Although bills with these provisions still have a reasonable chance being enacted by the current Congress, only one major bill finally passed in the waning moments of the last Congress (on October 22, 1988). That bill has two provisions that affect the overall number of legal immigrants. The first provision sets up a non-preference category (NP-5) that allocates 15,000 extra visas per year for the next two fiscal years for married brothers and sisters
20 of U.S. citizens. This provision is intended to help clear up the long backlog of qualified visa applicants in that category. The second provision provides an extra 10,000 visas in each of the next two fiscal years for people from "underrepresented" countries. This provision is being used largely by immigrants from South Asia and parts of Africa and Europe. In all, this bill establishes an additional 50,000 visas in a two-year period without reducing any other visa categories. Overall, there appears to be very little sentiment in Congress to reduce the total level of immigration by a substantial margin. Surveys show that there is less tolerance for immigration among the populace than among elected representatives, but anti-immigration forces are relatively weak and unorganized.

United States Recommendations. In summary, for 1985-1990 I would recommend that the World Bank use an annual legal immigration figure of 590,000. This figure should be reduced by annual emigration of 160,000 and augmented by annual net illegal immigration of 150,000. This results in net immigration of 580,000 annually, or 2,900,000 over the five-year period. For 1980-1985, gross legal immigration would be 25,000 less annually but illegal immigration may be 5,000 to 10,000 higher annually resulting in net immigration of about 563,000 annually or 2,815,000 over the five-year period. Although net immigration will probably remain constant at the 1985-1990 level for the rest of the century, the uncertain economic and political future make it prudent to project a gradual decrease in net immigration after 1990 to 2.80 million in 1990-1995 and 2.75 million in 1995-2000.

My recommendations for 1980-1985 are 23 percent higher thanu the latest United Nations estimates and 34 percent higher than the previouv World Bank estimates. The recommendations for 1985-1990 are 28 percent hAsner than the United Nations estimates and 35 percent higher than the previou3 World Bank estimates. My estimates, however, are lower than the latest of.icial estimates of the U.S. Bureau of the Census for 1987 that were released in August, 1988 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988). The Census Bureau figures for the annual level of net civilian immigration from 1970 to 1987 are shown in Table 7. For 1987, the Census Bureau estimates net civilian immigration at 599,000, including an allowance for illegal immigration. The components of this net figure are 559,000 legal immigrants, 160,000 emigrants, and 200,000 net illegal immigrants. Between 1980 and 1986, net immigration exceeded 600,000 in every year. The peak in the level of net immigration in 1980 was due to a large inflow of Cuban and Haitian entrants in that year. Therefore, the Census Bureau estimsats that net civilian immigration was 3,409,000 for calendar years 1980-1984. My own recommendation is 19 percent lower than the Census Bureau figures and thus must be considered on the conservative side. For calendar years 1985-1987 net immigration averaged 637,000 per year (according to the Census Bureau), which would total 3,185,000 if the same level were maintained for the remaining two years of the decade. My own recommendation is 2.9 million for that same period -- again a conservative estimate compared with the official figures.
21

**Table** 7. **Estimates of the Components ofPopulation Change: 1970 to 198** (U.S. **pc.** )n includinvg Armewd Forces **overseas.** Numbers In touuands. For meaning of symboIs, **see Wu0**

||**Popula.--**<br> <br>|||Compo|nent of ch|ange**_duln_**|**_g_**period<br>-<br>|R<br>-|aw perla<br>-|w0<br>_mld.y_<br>-|_aw_<br>_popuaft_<br>-|_on_<br>-<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Period|~~~tio<br>at<br>begin.<br>ning of<br>peiod|n<br>Percent<br>change'|Net<br>change'l|Natural<br>increase|9<sup>if$tC</sup>|0esttis|Nei<br>eMlian<br>1mm).<br>gratln<sup>5</sup>|<br>Net<br>cag|Natural<br>**nrae**|Iia|Deati|**Not**<br>cMIlmln<br>imm)i.<br>gratin|
|Calendar year:|||||||||||<br>|<br>|
|<br>1908...........|245,110|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|**(NA)**|<br>**(NA)**|<br>**(NA)**|
|1967 ...........|242,825|0.94|2,286|1,886|3,809|2,124|599|**_OA_**|6.9|15.0|0.7|2.5|
|1966...........240,532||0.96|2.293|1,631|3,731|2,100|662|9.5|**_6.7_**|**_15A_**|8.7|2.7|
|1996 ...........|238,207|0.98|2.325|1,673|3,761|2,081|650|9.7|7.0|16.7|0.7|2.7|
|1964 ...........|238,961|0.96|2,246|1,629|3,689|2,040|616|**9.6**|a.9|15.5|68.|2.8|
|'198 ...........|233,736|0.96|2,224|1,819|3,63|2,020|605|9.6|6.0|16.5|8.6|2.8|
|1982.<br>........|<br>231,405|1.01|<br>2,332|<br>1,705|<br>3,681|<br>1,975|626|10.0|**7.3**|**16.8**|<br>**8.5**|**2.7**|
|1961..........|229,033|1.04|2,371|1,661|3,629|1,979|7118|<br>10.3|7.2|16.8|8.6|3.1|
|1960..........|228.461|1.14|2,582|1,622|3,612|1,990|045|11,3|7.1|15.9|8.7|3.7|
|1079-1........|223,888|1.16|2,568|1,580|3,494|1,914|<br>640|11.5|7.0|1.65|8.6|2A|
|1978...........<br>|221,477<br>|1.08<br>|2,388<br>|1,406<br>|3,333<br>|1,928<br>|508<br> <br>|10.7<br>|6,3<br> <br>|16.0<br>|8.7<br>|2.3<br>|
|1977 ...........|219,179|1.05|2,298|1,426|3,327|1,900|<br>**394**|**_1OA_**|<br>6,6|16.1|0.6|1.8|
|1976 ...........|217,096|0.96|2,084|1,258|3,168|1,910|<br>363|9.6|6.8|14.5|8.8|1.8|
|1975 ...........|214.931|1.01|2,166|<br>1,251|<br>3,144|<br>1,894|<br>449|10.0|5.8|14.6|8,8|2.1|
|1974 ...........|212,932|0.94|1,999|1,225|3,160|I,'3|316|9.3|6.7|141|9.0|1.5|
|1973 ...........|2110,985|<br>0.92|1,947|1,163|3,137|1,974|331|9.2|5.5|**14.8**|<br>**9.3**|1.0|
|1972 ...........|208,917|0.99|2.068|1,293|3,258|1,966|325|9.9|6.2|16.5|_9A_|1.5|
|1971 ...........|206,468|1.19|2,451|1,626|3,556|1,930|387|1 1.8|7.0|17.1|9.3|1.9|
|1970 ...........|203,849|1.28|2,817|1.812|3,739|<br>1,927|**438**|**12.8**|<br>**881**|<br>**18.**|_9A_|2.1|
|Year ending June 30:<br>|||||||||||||
|<br>1987-88..........243,915||(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|(NA)|VWA|<br>(NA)|(NA)|
|1986-87..........241,613||<br>0.96|<br>2,301|<br>1,663|<br>3,767|<br>2,103|<br>639|<br>O|<br>9.6<br>.|16.5|<br>8.7|2.6|
|1986486........|2.. 3,279|0.98|2,335|1,682|3,765|2,1031|I<br>673|9.7|5.9|16.7|8.7|2.8|
|1964845..........237.001||0.96|2.278|1,682|3,731|2,089|613|9.6|7.0|16.7|8.7|2.6|
|1983484..........234,799||0.94|2,202|1,680|3,614|2,034|621|9.3|6.|**15.3**|<br>8.6|2.8|
|<br>1982.83..........232,520||0.98|<br>2.279|<br>1,682|<br>3,681|<br>1,999|597|9.8|7.2|**16.7**|<br>.8.|2.6|
|1981.82 ........|.230,138|1.03|2,382|11,897|<br>3,688|1,969|683|10.3|**7.3**|**15.8**|<br>**8.5**|**2.))**|
|1980-81..........227,757||1.05|2,381|1,621|3,619|1,998|757|_IOA_|7.1|15.8|8.7|33|
|1979-80..........225,055||1.20|2,702|1,607|3,563|1,965|750|11.9|7.1|15.7|8.8|1.3|
|1978-79..........222,585||1.11|2,471|1,513|3,415|1,902|486|11.0|6.8|15.3|8.5|2.2|
|<br>1977.78..........220,239||1.06|<br>2,346|<br>1,372|<br>3,304|<br>1,932|496|10.6|6.2|14.9|6.7|2.2|
|1976-T7..........218,038||1.01|2,204|1,392|3.274|1,882|<br>336|10.1|**_GA_**|14.9|8.6|1.5|
|1975.76..........215,973||0.96|2,062|1,218|3,127|1,909|376|9.5|6.6|**14A**|<br>8.8|1.7|
|1974.75..........213,854||0.99|<br>2.119|<br>1,256|<br>3.181|<br>1,925|402|9.9|6.8|14.9|9.0|1.9|
|<br>1973.74..........211,909||0.92|1,945|<br>1,161|3,111|<br>1,961|329|9.1|6.5|14.6|9.2|1.5|
|1972-73..........209,89||0.96|<br>2,013|<br>1,222|<br>3,196|<br>1,973|**339**<br>|9.5|6.8|16.1|**_GA4_**<br>|<br>1.6|
|1971.72..........207,681||1.08|2,238|1,446|3,393|1,947|**343**|10.?|6.9|18.2|9.3|1.6|
|1970.71..........205,052||1.27|2.60$|1,785|3,713|1,927|**396**|12.6|8.0|18.0|9.3|1.9|

# 'Percenyt of population at beginning of period.

'mnc!udes esmmates of overseas admissions into aen **d** ischarges from the Armed Forces and **heerror of closuire betweein censuses.** !Adjusted for underregistration through March 1970.

> 'Deaths occurring in the United States plus estimated deaths occurring to Armned Forces **overoses,**

5 Net civilian immigration for the 19701s excludes the net effect of undocumented immigration and an Increase In fth **assmed** level of emigration, **as** discussed in vthextax. The net effect for the intercensal decade would be an Increase of about 300,000 to 400,000), which would **als Increase the rate** of immigration prior to 1960.

> Source: U.S. **Bureau of** the Census, 1988: Table 1.
22 Finally, the sex ratio for U.S. net immigrants in the previous World Bank estimates seems too high for 1980-1985. The sex ratio of legal immigrants for FY1982-1986 has been 101.2. Even if we assume that 55 percent of emigrants are female, we would need to assume that 60 percent of illegal immigrants are male in order to reach the World Bank's previously published sex ratio estimate of 119 in 1980-1985. The World Bank's most recent estimate of 112 for 1985-1990 seems closer to the mark. I would recommend that a sex ratio in the vicinity of 112 be maintained for the entire period 1980-2000.

# Australia

International migration statistics in Australia are generally timely and of very highly quality. According to Appleyard (1987:3), "Australian migration statistics are arguably among the most accurate and detailed available." The accuracy of international migration data is due, in large measure, to Australia's isolation, the absence of direct land litks with cther countries, the limited number of ports of entry, and a long tradition of interest in demographic data in general and immigration in particular (Choi and Ward, 1987). Immigration and emigration data are based primarily on passenger cards that are filled in by all persons entering or leaving Australia. This source of data is relatively complete since illegal immigration is not considered to be a major component of international migration in Australia. In fact, it has been estimated that in 1980 there were only about 60,000 illegal immigrants in Australia (Storer, 1982).

The migration assumptions that have been used for the official population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics have been increased substantially in the last few years as additional information on recent international migration trends has become available. The large differences in the migration assumptions between the 1982 and 1986 sets of projections "underscore the difficulty involved in predicting long-term migration trends" (Zlotnick, 1988:25). Within a four-year period, for example, the prospective level of net migration for 1986-1987 increased from 70,000 to 106,000. Moreover, the 1986 set of projections assumed that net migration would increase to 125,000 in 1991-1992, whereas the newest projections (1988) assume that net migration will be more than 140,000 in 1991-1992.

Part of the reason for these differences is the considerable annual fluctuation in the level of admission of permanent settlers (see Figure 4). There has been a strong upward trend in settler arrivals since 1984 and the latest figures for 1988 confirm the continuation of that trend. Settler arrivals annually since 1975 are shown in the first column of Table 8. Arrivals increased steadily from 52,750 in 1975/1976 to 118,030 in 1981/1982. They then dipped to a low of 68,810 in 1983/1984 after which they began a dramatic recovery to a level of 143,490 in 1987/1988. Recent settlers are divided almost equally between males and females. The sex ratio of settlers for the last five years has hovered around 100 and has ranged from a low of 95.4 in 1983-1984 to a high of 105.8 in 1932-1983 (Hugo, 1988:15).
23 Information on the countries of origin of immigrants comes from two principal sources: (1) data on country of last residence of permanent settlers (Table 9), and (2) data on country of birth of foreign-born persons from the 1986 census (Table 10). The latter tab,le gives information which is more relevant to net migration, since immigrants who emigrated before the time of the 1986 census were not enumerated in the census. The major sources of settler arrivals in 1986-1987 were the United Kingdom (17.6 percent), New Zealand (14.1 percent), the Philippines (5.7 percent), South Africa (4.6 percent), Hong Kong (4.5 percent), and Malaysia (4.4 percent). The other major sending countries were widely spread throughout parts of Europe, Asia, North and South America, the Middle East, and the Pacific. Information from the 1986 census on the foreign-born population of Australia shows that the largest numbers of such persons who have been in Australia for less thar five years are from England (68,877) and New Zealand (66,268). Other important source countries are Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, the United States, Poland, Hong Kong, China, and South Africa.

In addition to permanent settlers, Australia also grants resident status to persons who are already in the country but who do not have resident status. There were 10,107 such immigrants in the year ending June 30, 1987 and 13,494 such immigrants in the year ending June 30, 1988 (see Table 11). Overall, the migrant intake was 123,416 in 1986-1987 and 156,984 in 1987-1988. Therefore, immigration has continued strong in the last two years and there are no indications that it will drop precipitously in the next few years.

In addition to the migrant intake, another component of gross immigration is the return to Australia of persons who previously emigrated, but I do not have separate statistics on this group. Gross emigration, on the other hand, consists of foreign-born and Australia-born emigrants. Statistics on permanent departures of foreign-born persons and all persons are shown in Table 8. Since 1980/1981, permanent departures have been fairly stable, ranging between 18,100 and 24,830 and averaging 21,133 emigrants per year. The departure rate of settlers is relatively high for the U.S., Canada and Greece, and relatively low for Poland and most countries in Africa and Asia (see Table 12). There is only a small difference in the depart"re rates for males (12.2 percent) and females (12.6 percent).

Net Migration. The level of net overseas migration that the Australian Bureau of Statistics uses in its estimates of the resident population is shown in Table 13. The level of net migration has fluctuated considerably, largely in response to annual changes in the level of permanent settlement. Net migration varied between 49,100 in 1983/1984 and 128,100 in 1981/1982. For the entire six-year period covered by the table, net immigration averaged 88,050 annually.
24 Figure 4. Australia: Settler Arrivals 1961-1987 <!-- Start of picture text --> 200-<br>191 196 1911976 198 1 198<br>Year nded 30 Juno<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Hugo, 1988: Figure 1.
25 Table 8. Permanent Movement, Australia: Financial Years 1975/76 to 1986/87

||||Depar|tures||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Financial||Non-Aust|ralian Born|||
|Year|Arrivals|**No.**|Percent of<br>Departures|Total<br>|<br>Departures<br>as Percent<br>of Arrivals|
|1975/76|52,750|18,280|<br>66.6|27,430|<br>52.0|
|1976/77|70,920|16,450|<br>66.9|24,590|<br>34.7|
|1977/78|73,170|15,680|<br>67.9|23,100|<br>31.6|
|1978/79|67,190|17,640|<br>69.4|25,430|<br>37.8|
|1979/80|80,750|15,030|<br>68.3|22,020|<br>27.3|
|1980/81|110,690|13,550|<br>69.5|19,500|<br>17.6|
|1981/82|118,030|15,080|<br>72.2|20,890|<br>17.7|
|1982/83|93,010|18,850|<br>75.9|24,830|<br>26.7|
|1983/84|68,810|17,810|<br>73.3|24,300|<br>35.3|
|1984/85|77,510|14,330|<br>70.3|20,380|<br>26.3|
|1985/86|92,590|12,500|<br>69.1|18,100|<br>19.5|
|1986/87|113,540|13,830|<br>69.4|19,930|<br>17.6|

# N.B.: Figures have been rounded to the nearest 10.

Source: Hugo, 1988:Table 10.
26 Table 9 Major sources of settler arrivals, 1986487(p)

|_To s_<br>_Rank_|_uttlaer_<br>_arrvals_<br>_Cowvryof lastresuidae_|_Nwnber_|_%_|_Escud_<br>_Rank_|_ing RefugieSHP_<br>_Couwyoflat residrce_|_Nwnber_|_%_|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|1|United Kingdom|19 887|17.6|1|United Kingdom|19 882|19.5|
|2|New Zealnd|15 967|14.1|2|New Zealand|15 966|15.6|
|3|he Philippins|6 431|5.7|3|The Plippliws|6 173|6.0|
|4|**SouthAfrica**|5265|4.6|4|SouthAfrica|5247|5.1|
|5|Hong Kong|5 139|4.5|5|Hong Kong|4669|4.6|
|6|Malaysia|5 025|4.4|6|Malaysia|3 477|3.4|
|7|Yugoslavia|2 961|2.6|7|Yugoslavia|2 589|2.5|
|8|Thailand|2 868|2.5|8|Viemam|2425|2.4|
|9|Lebanon|2676|2.4|9|UrltedStatsofAmerica|2316|2.3|
|10|Vienm|2 473|2.2|10|Lebanon|2262|2.2|
|11|United Stan of Ameica|2 322|2.0|11|Sri Lanka|2 247|2.2|
|12|SriLanka|2314|2.0|12|Ireland|2115|2.1|
|13|Singapore|2222|2.0|13|Singapore|2 047|2.0|
|14|Ieland|2 115|1.9|14|China|2027|2.0|
|15|India|2073|1.8|15|India|1 969|1.9|
|16|Indonesia|2 067|1.8|16|Fiji|1565|1.5|
|17|China|2028|1.8|17|Germany|1 549|1.5|
|18|Chile|1960|1.7|18|Korea|1 500|1.5|
|19|Germany|1 637|1.4|19|Canada|1 425|1.4|
|20|Fiji|1 565|1.4|20|Mauritius|1 395|1.4|
||Other|24 316|21.5||Other|19 364|18.9|
|Total||113311|100|Total||102209|100|

Source: Department **oTf** fmmigration and Ethnic Affairs, 1987:63.

(p) Prelinminary
27 Table 10: Foreign Population of Australia by Sex and Number of Years since Immigrating <!-- Start of picture text --> 0-4 YEARS TEARI Aw* OVCR TO IfieL v STAT901<br>"USTRIA ANAO& MAL PEKALI PlesStil s ^AL II I I? f n P112*10" MA I 10 FEMALE PE; O"<br>C"ILE I 16 I 4 A 144 $262<br>CHINA 13 I(A 6 58 447 ?*<br>TPRUS 14? 1.99 lit? I? 6 121 1 194 IP,<br>89C"OSLOVAICIA 716 '143 III I 156 64 1 ?468<br>MOT I 91 63 III 13643<br>INGLAND(INCL FRANCE UK Ukagirltdo .416 IC 34? i Is 190 V 4 A 31 1 4 ? 0 14 5 I 144 14 I?&?4386ii<br>G ONART if IIF I 4 43<br>GaElca 0<br>HONG Kom 16 5 4 s ?6 1<br>NUWaAAl 59 A Ms 5')67 p I I 1 S? 14 4 "94? 1 4 1 ?13a 9<br>inciA 4AA4 i464 I I 9; r 04<br>IMOWSIA a &all I I19 I<br>I vALT RILAND(atpulLIC) ?e , 64 Is 54 5 I I ? 14 ?<br>LArVIA 4 42 134 1<br>LCIAnDa 444<br>RALA 7S<br>TVIIA &A<br>OUL A 1866i 212 1<br>A# 6<br>i"(W CALA 3 44i 41 16 44<br>WAYNINIO IRELAND 1 H 31" 6 of a?4<br>PAPIJA WE GUINCA 1491 a I II I9<br>PwILIPPiNwas 140<br>POLANO 464 11916 1 4<br>PORTUGAL S93? 6 4 1 4 2 2s<br>SCOTLAme 1 04 R<br>SINGA P" 4 4 4944 66 4?3 7441<br>SOUTH AllICA SPAIN (*EPUILIC) I I I ? I I R i64?061<br>1:11CLANKA<br>of<br>A<br>igicTiW&LINAM VI 15 ?<br>TYNGIILAVIA io<br>0 16 It 79 1 41<br>TOTAL OWt1SJAS go*" 2 164 2 1 4 4 4 ? 13 4251 41 Is, is 3603<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, unpublished data.
28

# Table 11. Components of migrant intake 1986-87 and 1987-88 Year Ended 30 June

|Component|1987||1988||
|---|---|---|---|---|
||no.|t|no.||
|Family Migration|28550<br>|23.13<br>|30145<br>|19.20<br>|
|-<br>Spouses, minors,<br>fiance(e)s & special|16936|(13.72)|19096|(12.16)|
|-<br>Parents|11614|(9.41)|110 9|(7.04)|
|Skilled Labour &|20925|16.95|22570|14.38|
|Business Migration|||||
|-<br>Skilled labour|9037|(7.32)|7147|(4.55)|
|-<br>Employer nominees|8353|(6.77)|8201<br>|(5.22)<br>|
|-<br>Business Migrants|3535|(2.86)|7222|(4.60)|
|Independenti<br>|33374|27.04|51492|32.80|
|Concessional|||||
|-<br>Independent|1639|(1.33)|12068|7.69|
|-<br>Concessional|31735|(25.71)|39424|25.11|
|Special Eligibility|1398|1.13|1815|1.16|
|Refugee and Special<br>Hlumanitarian Program|11102|9.00|11076|7.06|
|Total visaed migrants|95349|77.26|117098|74.59|
|Non-visaed migrants|17960|14.55|26392|16.18|
|-<br>New Zealand Citizens|15731|(12.75)|24158|(15.39)|
|-<br>Australian Children|||||
|Born Overseas|1561|(1.26)|(15861|(1.01)|
|-<br>Other|668|(0.54)|(648)|(0.41)|
|Grant of Resident Status|10107|8.19|13494|8.60|
|Total|123416|100.00|156984|100.00|

Sources: Department of Immigration, Local Government and Ethnic **Affairs,** Statrstics Monthly, and unpublished **statistics.**
29 Table 12. Departures of the 1980 Cohort of Non-Refugee Settlers in Australia by Birthplace

|Birthpl.-£|DeRarture Rate|BirthDlace|Departure Rate|
|---|---|---|---|
||(%)||(%)|
|UK and Ireland|12.6|Anglo America|23.3|
|Northern Europe|16.0|Canada|24.6|
|Germany|12.6|United States|22.8|
|Netherlands|13.6|Latin America|11.7|
|Poland|7.5|Africa|5.6|
|Other N. Europe|20.6|South Africa|5.3|
|Southern Europe|16.3|Zimbabwe|6.3|
|Greece|25.6|Other Africa|6.2|
|Italy|17.3|Asia|8.8|
|Malta|11.2|Hong Kong|7.2|
|Yugoslavia|14.0|India|13.0|
|Other S. Europe|12.5|Malaysia|9.9|
|Middle East|11.3|Philippines|8.8|
|Lebanon|10.6|Vietnam|3.0|
|Turkey|11.1|Other Asia|7.7|
|Other Middle East|<br>11.9|Oceania (excl. N.Z.)|<br>11.0|

Source: Lukomskyj and Richards (1986:625) Table 13. Net Overseas Migration, Australia 1982-1987, Year ending 30 June

|1982|128,100|
|---|---|
|1983|73,300|
|1984|49,100|
|1985|73,700|
|1986|100,400|
|1987|103,700|

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1987.

In the most recent set of official population pro'jections for Australia, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) used a singl. assumption for net migration during the period 1987/1988 to 1992/1993 and -wo assumptions for the following period. It was assumed that net immigration would rise from 140,100 in the year ending June 30, 1988 to 142,600 for the year ending June 30, 1993 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1988). For the period 1993/1994 to 2030/2031, Assumption I is a constant level of net migration of 140,000 per year and Assumption II is a linear decline from 142,600 in 1992/1993 to 80,000 in 1997/1998 (remaining constant at the level of 80,000 annually through 2030/2031).
30 The Political Climate. There are mixed signals on the political front about the future course of Australian immigration. On the one hand, in 1987 the Minister of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs announced that "the Government supports an expansive immigration program. However, the most appropriate and responsible strategy is to plan for steady moderate annual increases commensurate with the economic and social situation" (news release from the Honorable Mick Young, Minister for Immigration, Local Government and Ethnic Affairs, June 11, 1987). On the other hand a new controversy has arisen in Australia over immigration from Asia and the Middle East. In 1984, Geoffrey Blainey began attacking the concept of multiculturalism and the "Asianization" of Australia (Mackie, 1987). Recently, opposition leader John Howard has questioned the non-discriminatory immigration policy and he has made this issue a keystone of his campaign. Howard has suggested that Asian immigration should be slowed in the interest of social harmony. However, Howard's position is strongly opposed by some members of his own Liberal Party. Moreover, Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke has vowed to fight any move to limit Asian immigration and he has decidee to take a strong stand on this position, even if it might hurt his chances o being re-elected. Public opinion seems to be on the side of John Howard, w,th 77 percent of Australia's population opposing large-scale immigration from Asia and the Middle East in public opinion polls. It should be pointed out, however, that the controversy is not primarily over the total magnitude of immigration, but over its regional composition.

Australia Recommendations. In summary, Australia has relatively good immigration and emigration data. Moreover, the analysts responsible for making estimates and projections are thoroughly familiar with the data, with Australia's situation, and with the appropriate analytical methods for arriving at the most reasonable estimates. Some caution is necessary because the projections have changed substantially in a short period of time, but these changes have been primarily in response to the rapid rise in actual net migration over the last four years. On the basis of the above information, I would recommend net migration of 425,000 for 1980-1985, 611,000 for 1985-1990, 636,000 for 1990-1995, and 511,000 for 1995-2000. These recommended figures are considerably higher than both the previous World Bank estimates and the United Nations estimates.

The estimates for 1980-1985 are only marginally higher than the United Nations estimates and it would be difficult to justify an estimate much lower than the one I have suggested because the data for that entire period are already available. Similarly, accurate data are already available for more than half of the 1985-1990 period and the course of international migration for the rest of that period is reasonably well determined. The period from 1990-2000 is less certain, but the previous World Bank assumptions are much too low. The assumption that I am recommending for 1990-1995 is 6 percent lower than the lowest assumption contained in the latest projections of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The recommended assumption for 1995-2000 is in the lower half of the range included in the ABS projections. I feel that a lower figure could possibly be justified but a figure of less than 425,000 would be unreasonable for that period.
31 Finally, the sex distribution of the proposed World Bank estimates does not seem reasonable on the basis of 1986 census data and post-1980 data on settler arrivals and on permanent departures. The sex ratio of permanent settlers from 1982/1983 to 1986/1987 was just under 100 and, as mentioned earlier, the propensity to leave Australia permanently is about the same for male settlers as for female settlers. The sex ratio of foreign-born persons who had been living in Australia for less than five years at the time of the 1986 census was also less than 100 (97.9). In fact, the sex distribution was quite even for all of the major sending countries eXcept for the Philippines, which had a large preponderance of females, and Vietnam, which had a large preponderance of males (see Table 10). Therefore, I would recommend dividing net immigrants equally between the sexes for each five-year period from 1980 to 2000.

# Canada

The gross immigration component of international migration for Canada is easy to estimate because Canada has excellent statistics on legal immigration and because illegal immigration to Canada is relatively small. The only real problem in estimating net international migration is in calculating the emigration component, since Canada does not collect statistics on emigration.

Legal Immigration. Over the course of the last 35 years, immigration to Canada has fluctuated widely reaching an annual level of over 200,000 in three years and falling below 100,000 per year in six years. However, at least 70,000 persons per year have immigrated in every year since 1949 (see Figure 5). In the early 1980s, immigration to Canada was running at an average level of over 130,000 persons per year, but immigration dropped sharply to less than 90,000 per year from 1983 to 1985 (Table 14), largely in response to Canada's economic recession at that time. However, in the last two years immigration has resumed an upward trend, approaching 100,000 in 1986 (99,219) and exceeding 150,000 in 1987 (152,098), the highest level since 1975 (unpublished tables, Employment and Immigration Canada). In the 1981-1985 period, 41.7 percent of immigrants to Canada originated in Asia, 30.6 percent were from Europe, and 21.8 percent from the Americas (Zlotnick, 1988a). By 1987, Europe had continued its long decline (to 24.7 percent) while Asia (44.3 percent) and the Americas (24.2 percent) increased their relative shares (unpublished tables, Employment and Immigration Canada).

Since 1979, Canadian immigration has been subject to a quota system. Until 1981, the targets of the quota system were established annually, but since that time the targets have been set over a three-year horizon (Zlotnick, 1988b). Although the actual number of immigrants has often deviated from the target level (see Table 15), Howith (1988) argues that the management of the immigration program has been largely successful. The largest differences between actual immigration and the announced target levels were due to two unforeseen developments -- the Indochinese refugee situation and severe economic recession. The 1989 intake quota will probably be about 125,000-135,000. The current pressures are to increase the quota and a decrease is considered very unlikely.
Figure 5.<sup>Annual Immigration and Emigration, Canada</sup> <!-- Start of picture text --> 150000<br>Goo mso an mi C (1987) wooeoo~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 _ - _ Not _V _S ionX<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source:<sup>Employment</sup> and Imimigration<sup>Canada</sup> (1987)
TABLE **14.** Country of Last Permanent Residence by Year ot Lanoing, 1979- 1i98 TABLEAU 14. Pays de derniere r6sidence **permarnente slon** I'annee d'6tablissement. 1979- 1985

|An,**<br>9r<br>Caaip<br>GE Lawp P.UA6fsl1A<br>P**e**"<br>d doe rA<br>t_ottlesI|**575**|10<br>||<br>F<br>**IU@4**<br>**161**|**95**|**1t16**<br>|**V14**<br>I|1|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_.ndor_<br>Andwe<br> <br>|||2<br>|<br>|I<br>-<br>||'|
|Auill4-<br>Autichle<br>ZoZ<br>-<br>Acor,|176<br>Is10<br>|240<br>2.190<br>|246<br>I379<br>|**366**<br>626<br> <br>|43<br>'<br>S4|_126_<br>467|70<br>409|
|<br>|503<br>"|599<br>I<br>|<br>648<br>|745<br>|367<br>|236<br>|215<br>|
|4w0SO<br>WAN04MeA<br>'|12.8<br>'|**1.24**<br>|**2111164**<br>|**,6.445**<br>|**5.73?**<br> <br>|8.104<br>''|**4.414**<br>|
|Engtano-AngtWoe<br>Nonfl,nIrelrta<br>n- Ianc, Outr4ct<br> <br>|0 006<br>Ss<br>|14379<br>5564<br>|17065<br>626<br>|13332<br>535<br>|4<br>30<br>7<br>|46<br>'61<br>|3.639<br>'46<br>|
|Scol4#<br>- Ecoue<br>**Walli**-Gatn|I906<br>405|2.595<br>**66**|.662<br>**'**|1 965<br>579|655<br>3|**666**<br> <br>|597<br> <br>|
|<br>Chf Wdf<br>h<br>AQlIN<br>|<br>'9|<br>26|**55**<br>|<br>|<br>2|!32<br> <br>9|<br>71<br>I|
|an-n ns -<br>a<br>noo.a-<br>:tS<br>04ig.a'<br>-<br>Suvla't<br>CanWr Iditnls-**lis**C4r1nt5s|<br>47<br>-|<br>69<br>-|44<br>4T<br>-|14<br>40<br>-|<br>44<br>-|<br>35<br>-|39<br>I|
|<br>Czrnotgove<br>-<br>TchslOdo.eVo<br>ron'alm<br>-<br>O<br>Ma'ma|356<br>_218_|1125<br>255|'09<br>j|e63<br>295|_259_<br>04|92'<br>97|903<br>64|
|,<br> <br> <br>Eslon.a S S R -RSSjEso10A4<br>Fm4'na- FtlmaIf<br>_fanre_|<br>I<br>'69<br>I900|<br>-<br>191<br>**-**|,<br>-<br>67<br>**90**<br>2_069_|<br>-<br>163<br>-<br>2 393|<br>-<br><br>63<br>O65'|<br>-<br>61<br>360|-<br>73<br>1 401|
|<br>Go,,na<br>.<br>Dom Poo-aPo<br>aem aA*-gno<br>Grmahny Fda Reoal-<br>Rnoled<br>_Aemagne_<br>G13.a51|<br>16<br>'323<br>'0|<br>26<br>1 643<br>a|<br> <br>5<br>2|<br>25<br>4 425<br>I<br>|<br>.6<br>2_S'15_<br>t<br>2|<br>'0<br>72?<br>-|<br>_28_<br>1.576<br>I|
|<br>Greece -<br>_Grace_|<br>1247|<br>t093|956|<br> <br>B6o|<br> <br>601|5Ss|SSI|
|_Ftu-tl4_<br>_-_ tOn4|366<br>|1<br>417|'65|1<br>405|464|374|614|
|c6Ina<br>-<br>tat11no<br>'lthA.Ci.C-A9040,Quol4lll4fl0|13<br>553|'6<br>679|31<br>610|14<br>630|6<br>99|13<br>291|7<br>265|
|lily -<br>11413<br> <br> <br>|' 996<br>|1<br>1 740|2 C43|'506|626<br>|$39|650|
|.ahw,S S R -R<br>S S<br>ulloqt<br>o_<br>14CIt'Ilom<br>||_<br>3|4|-<br>_<br>5|I|-<br>_|-<br>2|
|UthuJINSSSR-ASS<br>A S<br>rI4a1L,e<br>|I<br>|-<br>|3<br>|-<br>||||
|Lunelmowg<br>**Made.ws**-<br>**M.d**|8<br>.<br>_26_|7<br>_24_|1<br>_25_|12<br>30|4<br>26|2<br>20|2<br>23|
|_Malla_-<br>Maite<br>|204<br> <br>|I<br>191<br>|257<br>|5 4<br>|6I<br>|**64**<br>||
|Monaco<br>Nolh4,lAnds -<br>Pays-Bas<br> <br>|5<br>1 479<br>|22<br>1866<br>|_2_<br>**1**97<br>|3<br>10U<br>|3<br>672<br>|2<br>545<br>|44<br>|
|**No-ay**<br>-<br>**N04**<br>Polana -<br>pol<br>.<br>_Pl1 _|**1a**77<br>I045<br>|114<br>''6<br>|82<br>38 so<br>'<br>|104<br>8.278<br> <br>|S0<br>5C94<br> <br>|29<br>**499**<br>|59<br>;<br>**3.617**<br>|
|_o, 9 0_<br>ARem4a -<br>Acumet*<br> <br> <br>"|2 15<br>423<br>|2.014<br>632<br>|86<br>I<br>'47<br> <br>|<br>388<br>**96g**<br> <br>|8<br>620<br>**94**t<br>|655<br>640<br>|910<br>6u<br>|
|SporJn-<br>E<br>ta<br>S*<br>4-<br>**Su**<br>SW'lfl t-<br>S|_271_<br>262<br>'<br>'073|355<br> <br>_287_<br>657|402<br>!<br>325<br>863<br>'|<br>440<br>239<br> <br>796|323<br>'93<br>423|266<br>136<br>389|103<br>162<br>376|
|za a<br>uw<br>Turwy -<br>Tuque<br>USSR<br>-UASS|<br>257<br>1 365|<br>**444.**<br>2079|<br> <br>**636**<br>**66**|<br> <br>712'<br>377<br>|<br>296<br>|<br>370<br>140|205<br>1<br>110|
|<br> <br>Yugsta*tYo4jgo1zug"|<br>667<br>I|<br> <br>661|<br>743|<br> <br>773|<br>s27|<br>465|<br><br>476|
|**U32I**|**3.6**<br>t|<br>41.1"|4114.2"|**"4.16O**<br>.|4.312|woo1l1|1<br>**16.6**|
|AhWa_-_<br>**_AI*_**|7 I<br>|1<br>61||**90**|'06|64|42|
|.<br> <br>_AnOola._<br>SEonPeoplesRoo<br>ot<br>e-<br>P<br>0o<br>popu<br>_64n_|<br> <br>32<br>2<br>||<br> <br>3<br>|'2<br>9|<br>39<br>I<br>4|<br> <br>4I<br>2|<br>19<br>4|21<br>S|
|<br> <br><br> <br> <br> <br> <br>olwaa.<br>Pp<br>ol-RAo ou(IV 6otsa4|<br> <br>IS<br>|<br>1<br>is|<br>Rl|<br>13|<br>I|<br>a<br> <br>8|S|
|<br> <br> <br>Bus..<br>F,to (UtW<br>volta)-<br>Oul,ks<br>lHaule-valIi)|<br> <br>6|<br> <br>2|<br>1|<br>3|<br>5<br>||<br> <br> <br> <br>3|4|
|<br> <br> <br> <br>Euno<br>Cwoun<br>Pod Popof-Ao<br>lag<br>t<br>u_Ca4mwof_n|S<br>I<br>3<br>i|<br>I<br> <br>10|3<br>3<br>1|2<br> <br>7||<br>7<br>a<br>.|23<br>I S|
|<br> <br>_Cefntal_Abvrwn R4o0Utc -<br>Fapoul,O,.<br>Clenltri.Caermn<br>Ca.<br>P4of_-TchaaRoa_<br>A<br>e|2<br>|<br>_-_|<br>4<br>*<br>_-_|3<br>I|7<br>I|_|_<br>3|I<br>7|
|CongoR eo<br>lof-AW<br>ubc<br>u Congo|I|2|-|4|2|<br>3|3|
|_Oppotl. RAp_05-Roo<br>d Olowul,|s|1_S_|34<br>_;_|<br>_10_|6|6|I|
|_EeYol_-<br>**Egyv'**<br>|511<br>I|<br>616|_683_|**_644_**|**496**|**449**|394|
|Eualton-al Gums- Gu.neEqualo' a*e<br>Elhboe.-Ethltop|I<br>69|-<br>'06|-<br>74<br>|167|_2_<br>462|-<br>734|-<br>742|
|_Ga40n_Roo_of-R Ao_<br>_du_Gawf<br>Gamons<br>- G'3O7|6<br>-|9<br>-|_S_<br>I|9<br>2|a<br>-|'0<br>|4<br>_2_|
|_Ghwf4_<br>_Gu4._<br>_Repo of_- RAoO_Gu,lnO_<br> <br>|_137_<br>2<br>|_165_<br>___<br>|5|_s9_<br>_65_<br>9|'34<br>9|___<br>122<br>a<br>|194<br>7|
|Gwrnoo-O4au-<br>G.-te-Srssau<br> <br> <br> <br>|_-_<br>I<br> <br>|<br>_-_<br>|_-_|_-_<br>|2<br>,<br>|<br>I<br>|_<br>|
|Iory<br>coal<br>-<br>Cot"<br>Notts<br>|**_563_**<br>_1_<br>|<br>27<br>|45<br>|30<br>|37<br>|53<br>|_36_<br>|
|Kenya<br>|_319_<br>|363<br>|345<br>|277<br>|266<br>|_276_<br>|271<br>|
|L.thoI<br>L'Oana -<br>LO.1<br> <br>l|2<br>6<br>I<br>|3<br> <br>_14_<br>|_2_<br>2<br>|2<br>13<br>|5<br>**14**<br>|_10_<br>'0<br>'|_6_<br>4<br>|
|IDoYa -<br>te<br>Ma'agay<br>Reguboli-<br>9 R4wue Mael<br>Ml|10<br>_s0_<br>|_27_<br>_109_<br>|48<br>53<br>|31<br>64<br>|Is<br>_122_<br>|7<br>57<br>|47<br>_S0_|
|aaw.<br>Ma.PAP_o -Roo_<br>dmb<br>Mawdre-<br>Mewalane|5<br>_2_<br>7|23<br>_5_<br>_S_|_14_<br>4<br>-|26<br>_S_<br>2|a<br>4<br>4|_16_<br>3<br>2|3<br>_1_|
|<br> <br>Mocco-<br>M&aoc<br>_tMOIOQu_|<br>145<br>42|<br>_313_|489<br>_9_<br>1|<br>481<br> <br>20|<br>_1390_<br>_10_|<br>_251_<br>30|_338_<br>9|
|_._<br>NWGa-<br>_atf o_<br>**Pe**|<br>_IS_<br>**£**<br>|IS<br>I<br>|<br> <br>_10_<br>_-_|<br> <br>13<br>6|<br>3<br>I|<br>3<br>6|6<br>I|
|<br>14."M<br>_Ra*Vl_<br>_-_<br>_R4wbu_|<br>_S8_I<br>1|<br> <br>_133_<br>_S_|!40<br>_Sg_|<br>170<br>27|<br>_Il6_s<br>_IS_|<br>15e<br>_21_|89<br>_12_|
|<br> <br>_S_<br>_-_<br>**_Sen_l **<br>Swirls Loom|<br>_1I_<br>3|<br>_17_<br>_6_|<br>'9<br>I<br>_,_|<br> <br>_21_<br>_'_|<br> <br>16|<br>_10_|I7<br>_It0_|
|SO"Woa.An AO<br>of<br>_d-_<br>_ADut4QWcs5_<br>Somn<br>_South Afrca, R_<br>of-Apo<br>_de I'Atft4du_<br>SuO|i<br>2<br>1 339|_7_<br>_1.370_|**4**<br>426|_6_<br>**_993_**|Is<br>**454**|_23_<br>321|30<br>365|
|<br> <br>_Su40n.eOn_<br>_Rep_of-ARep.<br>do"<br>_duS oun_|,<br>_13_|_28_|_26_|_44_|79<br>_1_|<br>_61_|36|
|<br>Swaz4an- S<br>ounaza<br>.9<br>TaAw,ua. Urtlad A<br>dof-<br>_RoounIMo tenzani4_<br>Togo.D<br>d0o-4odTogO|_535_<br>S<br>I|IS<br>_450_<br>S<br>'|12<br>**644**<br>I|9<br>'<br>514|I<br>_4I_<br>I<br>S|6<br>s<br>420<br>6|6<br>424<br>'0|
|<br> <br>T1ur__- T~_|<br>67|<br>46<br>_j_|<br>_53_|_53_|<br>s||**_5_**|
|_ug_<br>sa-Ouganda<br>**_Z2ir. naibc_**<br>_at-_<br>_ASeUVb._<br>**_dou_Zare**|'<br>j<br>_3_|_6S_<br>,e|_16_<br>_33_|45<br>_38_|_1_I<br>50|**_146_**<br>_65_|129<br>45|
|_2K4"_<br>_-_Zn<br>_2h_~m_|<br>_72_<br>_210_|<br>_179_|_8t_<br>_U_<br>_2U_|_2_<br>231|_38_<br>_78_|_2e_<br>_*9_<br>__4_|_1_<br>_I1_|
|APISM|3.M|**_~~~~_**|**_4J11_**<br>4.?|**_4.610_**|**_3tUC_**|aus|i<br>_3,14t_|

33
**^... Ywr-89TABLE** 14 .Counlry of Last Peirmanent Residence oy Year of Landing. 1979-1985 TABLEAU 14.Pays **de** derniero residence permanente solon Iannoe d tablissemont. 1979-1985

|**Ave c'.**<br>'98|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|A crovelLm<br>Revi<br>o|**i**|||**t**|||
|**AIgRall'tI'**n<br>*IJ4<br>Ea<br>**nam**<br>-<br>6aen<br>**I I**|20|38<br>21|9<br>*3|73<br>'8|.5<br>0|3r0<br>3|
|<br> <br><br>.<br> <br>_Os dem~_<br>50<br>_Sohulon_<br>_-_<br>soulsn<br>I|<br>76<br>-|<br>-3<br>-|<br>So<br>-|<br>?8|<br>SI|94<br>I|
|<br> <br> <br>_BEuns,_<br>_2t9_<br>&MmgUnm 'nof-8¶MRW'<br>UWlnoas<br>64|336<br>67|305<br>81|275<br>'3|97<br>39|_ee_<br>S|61<br>3|
|,<br> <br> <br>ChnnP*cpRep ol-RPe<br>DOM os Chre<br>_2_056<br>Cyp<br>_-C_<br>lvlri<br>113|<br>4936<br>33|6550<br>137|351<br>97|z<br>?.<br>6'|e.<br>|6<br>1883<br>so|
|0<br> <br> <br>Hong**Kon**<br>5966|<br>6309|645'|_6542_|610|<br>e-e|738|
|<br>node- _IKfoe_<br>4 56|8483|8256|1776|1041||4S:;<br>*026|
|**Inedneeoo**<br>oRec<br>**-** Asp Lo lIIdC^j.e<br>163<br>liE' n<br>144|267<br>' 02'|_214_<br>' 056|264<br>' 20'|'36<br>' 266||_d-._<br>|'07<br>_'_128|
|**l"a**<br>203<br>IV"-<br>'l<br>63'<br>_Japan-_<br>_JapOn_<br>666|246<br>498<br>737|216<br>I765<br>770|20'<br>392<br>630|325<br>564<br>333|***es**<br>;9<br>;50|**339**<br>676<br>205|
|Jordan-_30,08414_<br>'30<br> <br> <br>|3<br>|131<br>|96<br>|83<br>|-16<br>||
|Kampuchea_Dsm R0o _ol-- RePat)<br>:<br>**i**<br>**oI ka"ovrdia**<br>978<br> <br>|3 265<br>|1 337|I378<br>|1 542<br>|_26_<br>|803<br>|
|**Korea**DenP4oW Roo ol-Rp<br>_*m_**_QOO_**deColei<br>-<br>Kofea RAy of -<br>Reio<br>)<br>Core<br>6'?<br>'<br>|I<br>956<br>|-<br>7<br>430<br>_'_|**4**<br>'506<br>_'_|I<br>I07<br>|i<br>C1<br>'|_2_<br>934<br>_'_|
|K,,ee. -Kowel<br>36<br> <br> <br>|_72_<br>|_52_<br>|_62_<br>|;56<br>|33|_20_<br> <br>|
|Lae<br>b<br>3 903<br>**IOlIsostwo**-<br>L..bfn<br>'747<br> <br>'|6, 66<br>' 406<br>'|**866**<br>_''22_<br>'|375<br>''90<br>'|434<br> <br>813<br>'<br>|;<br> <br>'24,<br>|6<br>5379<br>'657<br>'|
|Uaoac<br>02<br> <br> <br>4|06<br>_72_|63<br>T|1<br>688|48<br>399|9<br>356|I1<br>332|
|Maleysa-<br>**Mali**u<br>56<br>MouroWn Pioo Reo ofl-RRo oec ae omgo'<br>-<br> <br> <br>|_0_<br>-<br>'0|08<br>-<br>|<br>-<br>7|<br>-_<br>|<br>|I<br>S|
|NOW -<br>Nli<br>5<br>Oman<br>7<br>P&ktn<br>it?|<br>_2_<br>68|6<br>6<br>73'|<br>'6<br>668|I<br>.8<br>636<br>|;<br>0<br> <br>6|_479_|
|asa<br> <br>Pn.po'ns Rep o<br>'he-Rep cesPh..,omnen<br>3 673<br>Qatar|<br>6 051<br>2|<br>5 659<br>' I|<br>5 062<br>1 3|<br> <br>4 454<br>5|<br> <br>3:3<br>'6|3 016<br>7|
|<br>**SauAIba**<br>-A'aoeSaoudde<br>35<br>**Sovaore**_-_<br>S'naoour<br>225|<br>81<br>290|<br>'22<br>389|<br>?0<br>435|<br>141<br>24'|<br>'53<br>6|145<br>**'66**|
|**p**<br>g<br> <br>Sr'**Lana**-<br>SO-1n-a<br>It7|<br>**144**|<br>223|<br>_'82_|<br>166|<br>'.-!|1lS|
|<br>.<br> <br>Syna-<br>Syne<br>'74<br>_rawen_**_-_**<br>T'as.Wan<br>707|<br>207<br>827|<br>33'<br>834|<br>_281_<br>560|<br>193I<br>510|<br> <br>.3<br>_42_|265<br>536|
|Tha4an- Thadands<br>2 3<br>T rM<br>2|396<br>-|123<br>I|.0'<br>I|_226_<br>-|_'_<br>-|13<br>-|
|UE"I60 Arab Emans-<br>Emn"als<br>aaCes nos<br>16<br>V'lna mSoc Ray ol-Rep<br>soc :V.VsNan, m9.659|47<br>25541|67<br>625S|131<br>5935|t13<br> <br>6451|**,.34**<br>'0950|_I4_<br>'0404|
|<br> <br>Yem**e**n<br>A,ab<br>eo ol- Roo<br>Dfo<br>z_rYenmn_<br>_2_<br>Yen<br>P O R of _ R<br>P Ou Yeme<br>I|12<br>I|3<br>5|13<br>1|4<br>'3|**4**<br>3|20<br>4|
|ASIA-AS-<br>50.540|71.602|**46.30**|**41.617**|**36.60**|'1.1M|36.507|
|Austlus-<br>AuSuIaw<br>808<br>NOWZ5OGaLO-Nou<br>eN-15Z511040<br>58'|884<br>642|760<br>520|564<br>357|334<br> <br>139<br>|**i**<br>3<br>i<br>'5,|**355**<br>147|
|PqPUM Ns<br>**GU-nna**-<br>PAPOuase<br>Nc-nelle-Gone*<br>6|29|I7|I7|5|<br>4|**4**|
|**AUS'TPALASLA**<br>-<br>**AUSTPALASIE**<br>1,305|**I.555**|**1.397**|**536**|**476**|**63u5li**||
|kE<br>IS<br>Cosla R08<br>30|17<br>38|33<br>46|16<br>S3|34<br>65|50<br>76|26<br>**8s**|
|El**SaSledr**-<br>**Sa,ador**<br>108|_112_<br>|292|857|2.65'|2579|268'|
|Greentend -<br>r<br>n4en"and<br>-<br>Guaemalra<br>61<br>|4<br>120|6<br>112|-<br>28|I-<br>364|648|1063|
|Howwas<br>43<br> <br> <br>|31<br>|36<br>|30<br>|63<br>|**-**<br>|94<br>|
|Me*Co-<br>m4.-QoE<br>36A<br>Ncaage<br>45|424<br>1 7|440<br>19|513<br>31|512<br>so|522|369<br>**4**|
|Panama<br>6<br> <br> <br> <br>|_21_|'3|**_'4_**<br>|9|'3|20|
|Panam Cnil<br>zone-<br>Zone ou canjf os Panama<br>2<br>StP',e<br>&_hMouson_-<br>SaMn.P.ee<br>e.MK.~<br>38<br> <br> <br>'|-<br>'6<br>|-<br>'3<br>|I<br>a<br>|-<br>s<br>|-<br>|-<br>s<br>|
|USA -<br>E41s uns<br>9 6?|9 926|o<br>059|9 360|7 381|6 922|6 669|
|OORTH&CENTPAL**ANUNCA**<br>ANOIO<br>J<br>DUM<br>T AMIh6<br>CSNTRALE<br>10.346|**1o.r2a**|**11.56**|11.011|11.03S|11.000|1.6ll|
|**Angude**<br>1<br>Anlga<br>S,<br>lbuda<br>-<br>Anique s'**Baomo**<br>-<br> <br>|_2_<br>**I9**|_2_<br>'40|A<br>...|_2_<br>61||_2_<br>56|
|_Anigue_<br>74<br>_Bahamas_4a_noahas-Ws_<br>sgaarnas<br>52<br> <br> <br>|ss<br>|56<br>|-<br>69<br>|-<br>27<br>|-<br>3<br>Ž|-<br>35<br>'|
|6S8radOa-<br>BiaDWe<br>e93<br>ehm* da-ehm><br>s<br>,<br>'0'<br> <br> <br>|354<br>'01<br>|353<br>66<br>|303<br>**'4**<br>'|250<br>**37**<br>|28<br>20<br>|26<br>33|
|Cayman iganas -<br>ilfsCa<br>.<br>7<br> <br>|3<br>|1<br>|4<br>|a<br>'|2<br>'|-<br>'|
|CAIDS<br>3<br> IOD<br>S|306<br>II$|&O<br>79|93<br>67|06<br>64|.<br>'9|48<br>8'|
|DOoff-WS-aonno .<br>s<br>Dorlls.cneRoVWc-<br>Re lquOo<br>n<br>28<br>GdG<br>'36|<br>**A1**<br>'4|<br>ss<br>164|<br>'09<br>239|<br>99<br>'6|<br>9<br>'68|ea<br>'69|
|renaa - ,enae<br> <br>**ouGadu**<br>6|,<br>'2|<br>36|<br>54|,<br>i6|<br>6|9|
|**p**<br> <br>**Hal.**-<br>Nad,<br>_266_<br>*jamaca -jams"Q<br>1<br>3.213<br>**annaIq**<br>8|<br>' 633<br>3'61<br>10|<br>3667<br>2563<br>_28_|<br>3 468<br>2593<br>'0|<br>2_827_<br>2423<br>'?|<br>I397<br>24 9<br>3|1 29r<br>2922<br>s|
|**,**<br> <br>**MOenlI6sl**<br>'6|<br>6|<br>37|<br>7|<br>**4**|<br>_2'_|23|
|<br> <br>Netherlands AMnIl5S<br>**-**<br>Atdon nwflshanoss<br>23<br>MOe<br>a|<br>6<br>9|<br>I<br>'3|<br>20<br>'9|<br>14<br>'4|<br>8<br>5|8<br>2|
|<br> <br>PuelAro eo -Pono-R.o<br>4|<br>12|<br>4s|<br>i|<br>2|<br>'o|2|
|<br>Sl K<br>-<br>SawnI-Cslopo<br>;<br>**53**|6'|<br>*49|so|47|37|31|
|<br> <br> <br> <br>S LuCI4 -S4nlellCle<br>43<br>St V<br>-S.n*vncmm.|<br>72<br>O6<br>'66|<br>1102<br>183|<br>'42<br>202|<br>469<br>161|<br>568|7<br>'92|
|?ra"da ano<br>goa. OeM Rep of-<br>ROpdn<br>detT(MM*<br>*I Toago<br>Yu6<br>IIrc<br>os -1<br>" rutes<br>el Ca<br>3|953<br>2|963<br>-|992<br>**-**|r87<br>-|s9<br>I|670<br>-|
|j VW"lrgn_e,en-sasvage<br>unII.anes<br>c<br>3<br>VerPMgn*uUSA<br>-iarVWain<br>Ir7|6<br>I<br>12|7<br>6|2|-<br>3|I<br>6|I<br>-|
|<br>fcA<br>t i iAJ<br>LAS|**7.1**|63<br>j|<br>**61**|**7.216**|**5X**|**6.132**|

34
35 Lcda **,MiS,- II** TAKE 14. Country of Last Permanent Residence by Year of Landing. 1979-1985 win"~'4 TA iEU 14. Pays **de** dernire **rsidence** pormanente sWon **'Vannee** d'6tablissement, 1979 1985

|At~<br>nsC..4- WS||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|P_aystt<br>dotieiOm r~In<br>1"<br>samait|<br>|J_<br>||1<br>_<br>1||||
|Avgam.ra<br>-<br>Afgpr*|**O**|196449|4(7|**o7i**|**30**|**243**|**216**|
|<br>|i<br>2t|t<br>63|||6<br>42|42|I*<br>_5_|
|CMOr|_<br>23t|300|335|272|IN|SO3||
|__ <br>C -CmU|<br>1.155|<br>tr57|102tt|I.0t|757|M^|3r|
|Www-Ce401|33|25t|3D0|3t4|23rt|243<br>|213<br>|
|fecuao-<br>&"few<br> <br>|2M3|240|22IS?<br>|<br>|163|'63|p<br>2t0|
|fmvgnc¶ouwa-Guyanb4a<br>IaC of<br>|||I|I||||
|<br>Ouya'ia<br>-<br>OGya'w||2262.410|||.0m|**6jg**|.0|
|<br> <br>Peru|3 3m|||Al$|243|<br>305|32|
|SurIrIm<br>||,<br>I<br>|9<br>35<br>|27<br>|12<br>|**4**|17<br>|
|tKOAy|224<br>|'2?<br> <br>|t42<br> <br>|14<br>|10N<br>||93<br>|
||120|149<br>|lea2<br>|lS|3?|'w|I"|
|_SOU6_<br>P<br>_A_<br>_JMmCA_<br>-<br>ANSOISOUSW|SIM|6.48|**6.12.**|CM|**4*.6**|**4,066**|1<br>**4,266**|
|COSV<br>d- C4i.-V<br>al<br>-<br> <br> <br> <br> <br>|5<br>|<br>|<br>2|3<br>|_|9||
|C<br>ewm- Fte_Fled_<br>rn<br>_nfms_<br>d<br>C0*v4|2|3||3|_|||
|___<br>F.p--F|519I<br>|_<br>637<br>|t<br>|**66**||3Ut<br>|4u<br>|
|<br>**_Frou- PcEnenA-Polyn4aa"o-a"_**|I|IS|7<br>|a|I|2<br>|2|
|<br>Guam<br> <br>|I|-_|3<br>|**4**||2|1|
|Phca.rn<br>Mw*-<br>NePAtcawn|_<br> <br>|<br> <br>|__?<br>|I|-<br>|-<br>||
|Ma,iOa_-_<br>_if* MMAVA_<br>|19S<br>|1<br>**276**|**6**|**64**|**¶14**|196<br>|_|
|<br>maycil<br> <br>|_|_|2<br>_<br>|||3<br>|¶|
|NOW<br>Caldm<br>-<br>_tOU.u*-C#e1_<br>|||2|20|9<br>_|5||
|R.~-<br>AOV<br> <br>|i<br>|2||2<br>2|4|_|2|
|**Samoa AmWca**-<br>Samoa &-r.eaw|3<br>|-||_||||
|**Sam"o**6<br>- Sum Oc<br>e2|3<br> <br>S|1|2|1||||
|<br> <br>S|_<br>,<br>,so|6|T|1|4|,||
|Sevftlwa<br>_O_<br>_t-I_<br>-e<br>a&<br>tcamh_||-<br>||||4<br>|-|
|Ton"<br> <br>|I|2|2<br>|5|t<br>|2|I<br>5|
|TUVNJ lG.bIn Waes-<br>i1" G<br>t||-<br>|I<br> <br>|_<br>-<br>|¶||_|
|US Trat TwrIory o1 lN Pe.'<br>'ILand-<br> <br>|||<br>||2|||
|hf**u"11Ou"laIh.I01**<br>AI¶drW.cM'|I|<br>|<br>||||¶|
|Vatu_a;||2|T|||||
|**OCIA14AAJM**oISE Oct"Nam"||||||||
|a Mims<br>**kEg oc*MUSUS**|=cobe|US|Su|**1.161**|**7I'**|GIs|I<br>**62n**|
|NW**stlat**-<br>Nonoc.|6|-<br>I||I? 96<br>1||25.|_|
||RAlWO<br>TOTAL|112.e40|143.1ttj||<br>**ttS16**<br>j|<br>**121.14?t**|**6619?**|**66266**|**64.30l**|

Source: Employment and Immigration Canada, 1987: Table **IM7.**
36 Table 15. Target and Actual Immigration Levels, Canada

|**A**|**NNOUNCED AND ACTUAL LEVELS,**|**1979-1987**|
|---|---|---|
|**Year|**|**Announced Level**|**Actual Landin22**|
|1979|100,000|112,096|
|1980|120,000|**143,li7**|
|1981|130,000-140,000|128,618|
|1982*<br>1983<br>1984|130,000-135,000<br>134,000-i44,000<br>130,000-145,000|121,147|
|1983*<br>1984<br>1985|105,000-110,000<br>115,000-125,000<br>120,000-135,000|89,157|
|1984*<br>1985<br>1986|90,000- 95,000<br>100,000-110,000<br>105,000-120,000|88,239|
|1985|85,000- 90,000|84,302|
|1986**|105,000-115,000|92,650"**|
|1987|115,000-125,000|132,000 (est.)***|

*Three-year plan, subject to annual review<sup>and adjustment.</sup>

**Two-year plan.

***Excludes 6,569 landings in 1986 and an<sup>estimated 16,000 landings ii</sup> 1987 through an administrative review program<sup>for backlogge</sup> in-Canada claimants to Convention refugee status.

Source: Howith, 1988:40.
37 Emigration. Canada does not collect any statistics on emigration and the only indirect estimates of emigration available are provided by Statistics Canada. These estimates are calculated by the composite method based on administrative records on family allowances and taxation (Samuel, White, and Perreault, 1988). Beaujot and Rappak (n.d.) estimate that close to 25 percent of immigrants leave Canada within ten years of their arrival. About 60 percent of emigration results f..om the departure of immigrants and the rest from the departure of persons born in Canada. The departure rates of previous immigrants are generally highest for persons born in the United States and lowest for those born in Asia. As in the case of the United States, "many immigrants retain one foot in each of two countries" (Beaujot and Rappak, n.d.:2), so that emigration is not a clear-cut process.

As might be expected, migration tends to rise as imiligration increases (Beaujot and Rappak, n.d.). Nevertheless, in the mo.; recent population projections for Canada, emigration does not depend directly on the level of immigration. Emigration is fixed at a constant rate of 2.5 per thousand population (Statistics Canada, 1988). A constant rate may not be too unreasonable, however, since emigration of persons born in Canada should not depend on the level of immigration and since the emigration of immigrants depends more on the stock of immigrants than on recent flows. In fact, only about 25 percent of all emigration is attributable to immigrants who arrived in Canada in the previous five years (Beaujot and Rappak, n.d.).

Illegal Immigration. Illegal immigration is not numerically important in Canada and therefore, barring any change in this situation, it can be safely ignored in calculating net international migration. A 1983 study by the Canada Employment and Immigration Commission (1983) concluded that there were probably orly about 50,000 illegal immigrants in Canada, although some estimates tun as high as 200,000. Moreover, there are not any indications that net illegal immigration at the current time is an important factor in overall population movement.

Net International Migration. The official Canadian government estimates of net international migration for the period 1980-1987 are shown in Table 16. Because of the economic recession, the level of net immigration slumped from mid-1983 to mid-1986, but it rebounded again in the following year. For the five-year period from mid-1980 to mid-1985, the government estimates net immigration at 308,000 persons. In every year the majority of immigrants were estimated to be female and the majority of emigrants were estimated to be male. This results in a sex ratio of net immigra' s of 86.1, which is considerably lower than the sex ratio of 122.8 previously proposed by the World Bank.

Political Considerations. P.-cause of its current low levels of fertility, Canada faces eventual p-pulation decline and an aging populatior (Romaniuc, 1984). Canada has now had below-replacement fertility for 15 - and the current total fertility rate of 1.66 is about 20 percent lower thL. the level necessary to replace the population in the long-run (Taylor, 1987). A continued TFR of about 1.7 would require an annual immigration level of 275,000 persons by the year 2000 to maintain an annual growth rate of one percent, which is generally considered desirable for Canada (Taylor, 1987).
38 Table 16 Annual Level of Immigration, Emigration and Net Migration by Sex, Canada, 1980-81 to 1986-87

||I|mmigra|nts|E|migran|ts||Net||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Year<sup>1</sup>|Total|Male|Female|Total|Male|Female|Total|Male|Female|
|||||(|in thou|sands)<br>2||||
|1980-81|129|64|<br>65|44|22|<br>21|86|42|<br>44|
|1981-82|135|66|<br>69|45|23|<br>22|90|43|<br>46|
|1982-83|105|51|<br>55|50|26|<br>24|55|25|<br>30|
|1983-84|88|41|<br>47|49|25|<br>24|39|16|<br>23|
|1984-85|84|40|<br>44|46|24|<br>23|33|16|<br>22|
|1985-86|88|42|<br>46|45|23|<br>22|43|20|<br>24|
|1986-873|123|63|<br>60|41|21|<br>20|82|42|<br>40|

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

__----__---------'From June 1 of year t to May 31 of year t+l.

2Due to rounding, the data do not always add up to the totals.

3These are preliminary estimates. Emigration estimates are subject to revision.

Source: Immigration: Data provided by Employment and Immigration Canada. Emigration : Data estimated by Statistics Canada, Demography Division. Estimates produced by using family allowance files and Revenue Canada tax files.
39 There seems to be a general consensus that population decline in Canada would be detrimental to the economy and welfare of Canadian residents. According to a recent report from Employment and Immigration Canada (1987b:27), "Canadian politicians, business leaders, economists and academics are convinced that Canada must experience further population growth if it is to sustain its economic and social infrastructure... The standard of living of Canadians generally would drop substantially if the population went into decline." These types of considerations have led to serious discussions of substantially increasing immigration to Canada. In fact, the government is now discussing an annual intake of one percent of the total population each year, which would amount to 260,000 immigrants per year at the current population size. This should certainly be considered an upper limit on possible immigration, but some experts feel that such a level of immigration could actually be achieved within five years.

Official Projections. The international migration assumptions in the official government population projections have changed substantially in the last three years, largely in response to the recent upsurge in legal immigration. As recently as 1985, the low variant projection assumed that net international migration would be constant at an annual level of 50,000 for every year from 1985-86 to 2005-06 (Statistics Canada, 1985:30). The high variant projection allowed net immigration to increase by 5,000 per year from a level of 50,000 in 1984-85 to 100,000 in 1994-95. Thereafter, net immigration would be constant at a level of 100,000 per year. The authors point out that the high migration assumption was meant to "represent a scenario of a possible improvement in the economic situation -- thereby increasing the demand for selected workers and a higher intake of workers. The possibility of an increase in immigration to partly compensate for the prevailing low fertility level is also considered" (Statistics Canada, 1985:31). It appears that both of these considerations were taken into account more centrally in the new projections.

The new set of projections has increased the net immigration assumption in both the low and high variant projections by about 20,000-30,000 per year. The migration assumptions for 1987-200W. are shown in Table 17. For the low variant projection, net immigration is assumed to be 86,000 for 1987-1988. It then drops to 75,000 in 1988-1989 and slowly declines to 70,000 by the end of the century entirely in response to a slow increase in emigration. Immigration is assumed to be constant at an annual level of 140,000 for 1988-1989 to 2000-2001. The high migration variant assumes that net immigration will rise steadily from a level of 86,000 in 1987-1988 to a peak of 131,000 in 1994-1995 and then will slowly decline to 127,000 by the end of the century. In that projection, immigration is assumed to rise from 150,000 to 200,000 per year within the first eight years of the projection period and then to remain constant through the year 2000-2001. Both variants of thr projections assume that the sex ratio of net immigrants will be only about 80 throughout the projection period.

Canada Recommendations. For 1980-1985, I would strongly favor the net emigration figures available from Statistics Canada. These are based on excellent information about the actual extent of immigration to Canada. Although the emigration estimates are considerably less certain, even if
40 Table 17

||P<br>N|rojec<br>et Mi|ted Level<br>gration by|of Immig<br>Sex, Can|ration,<br>Emigratio<br>ada, 1986-87 to 2|n and<br>000-2001||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Immi|grat|ion<br>2|Em|igration<br>3||Net|||
|Year|Total|Male|Female|Total|Male Female|Total|Male|F|emale|
||||||(in thousands)<br>4|||||
|Low Migration|Assumptio|n||||||||
|1987-88|150|71|<br>79|64|32<br>32|86|38||48|
|1988-89|140|66|<br>74|65|<br>33<br>32|75|33||42|
|1989-90|140|66|<br>74|65|<br>33<br>32|75|33||42|
|1990-91|140|66|<br>74|66|<br>34<br>32|74|33||41|
|1991-92|140|66|<br>74|67|<br>34<br>33|73|32||41|
|1992-93|140|66|<br>74|67|<br>34<br>33|73|32||41|
|1993-94|140|66|<br>74|68|<br>35<br>33|72|32||40|
|1994-95|140|66|<br>74|68|<br>35<br>33|72|32||40|
|1995-96|140|66|<br>74|69|<br>35<br>34|71|31||40|
|1996-97|140|66|<br>74|69|<br>35<br>34|71|31||40|
|1997-98|140|66|<br>74|69|<br>35<br>34|71|31||40|
|1998-99|140|66|<br>74|70|<br>36<br>34|70|31||39|
|1999-00|140|66|<br>74|70|<br>36<br>34|70|31||39|
|2000-01|140|66|<br>74|70|<br>36<br>34|70|31||39|
|High Migratio|n Assumptio|n||||||||
|1987-88|150|71|<br>79|64|<br>32<br>32|86|38||48|
|1988-89|160|75|<br>85|65|<br>33<br>32|95|42||53|
|1989-90|170|80|<br>90|65|<br>33<br>32|105|47||58|
|1990-91|180|85|<br>95|66|<br>34<br>32|114|51||63|
|1991-92|185|87|<br>98|67|<br>34<br>33|118|53||65|
|1992-93|190|90|<br>100|68|<br>35<br>33|122|55||67|
|1993-94|195|92|<br>103|68|<br>35<br>33|127|57||70|
|1994-95|200|94|<br>106|69|<br>35<br>34|131|59||72|
|1995-96|200|94|<br>106|70|<br>36<br>34|130|59||71|
|1996-97|200|94|<br>106|71|<br>36<br>35|129|58||71|
|1997-98|200|94|<br>106|71|<br>36<br>35|129|58||71|
|1998-99|200|94|<br>106|72|<br>37<br>35|128|58||70|
|1999-00|200|94|<br>106|73|<br>37<br>36|;27|57||70|
|2000-01|200|94|<br>106|73|<br>37<br>36|<br>127|57||70|

'From June 1 of year t to May 31 of year t+l.

2Two immigration assumptions are offered, the low assumption is to reach 140,000 by 31988-89 and the high assumption is to reach 200,000 by 1994-95.

Only one emigration assumption is offered, that being a constant rate of emigration of 0.0025. The projected emigration levels presented in this table are those obtaine from a low growth scenario (low immigration assumption, TFR=1.2), and a high growth 4<sup>(high immigration assumption, TFR=2.1).</sup> Due to rounding, the data may not always add up to the totals.

Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section.

"Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, 1986-2011."
41 emigration were assumed to be only half as high as Statistics Canada has estimated, net international migration could not be as high as previously proposed by the World Bank. I would recommend rounding the official estimate of 308,000 off to 310,000 for 1980-85 and adopting a sex ratio of 90, which is somewhat higher than the official estimate but much lower than the previous World Bank estimate.

Because of the rapid increase of immigration in the last two years, a somewhat higher figure for net migration is necessary for the next five-year period I would recommend an assumption of net immigration of 370,000 for 1985-1990. This estimate is based on the official low migration assumption, augmented by some additional immigration. After 1990, T would recommend a gradual decline in the level of net immigration to 350,000 in 1990-1995 and 340,000 in 1995-2000. Again these recommendations would be consistent with the low migration assumptions of the official projections with a small amount of additional immigration. Although there is a reasonable chance that net immigration will continue to rise substantially over time, it is equally likely that a reoccurrence of economic difficulties could have a temporary inhibiting effect on immigration. Since immigration is more subject to fluctuations in economic conditions in Canada than in the United States, considerable caution needs to be exercised in projecting a continuing increase in immigrant arrivals. I would also recommend a continuation of female dominance in the flows, but with some movement toward more of a sex balance over time (i.e., sex ratios of about 90 in 1985-1990, 95 in 1990-1995, and 100 in 1995-2000).

# New Zealand

In New Zealand, the Department of Statistics publishes annual migration statistics based on information from forms filled out by each person entering or leaving the country, except for crews, transit passengers, and members of the Armed Forces on military exercises (Farmer, 1986). International migrants are divided into two categories: (1) permanent, and (2) long-term migrants who state that they are leaving New Zealand for 12 months or more but not permanently. New Zealand immigration laws recognize several special arrangements with residents of certain countries. Persons born in the Cook Islands, Niue, and the Tokelau Islands are New Zealand citizens who are allowed unrestricted entry to New Zealand (Trlin, 1987). Moreover, under a reciprocal agreement regarding trans-Tasman mobility, there is free migration between Australia and New Zealand in both directions.

As can be seen from Table 18, arrivals of permanent settlers and longterm migrants have been fairly constant since 1979. The annual number of permanent settlers arriving has ranged from 9,960 to 12,595. Arrivals of long-term migrants varied between 30,676 and 33,259 during the same period. Nearly 80 percent of long-term migrants were New Zealand residents who were returning after a long absence. There was a slight preponderance of males among permanent and long-term migrants. The sex ratio of permanent and longterm migrants between 1980 and 1984 was 105.1.
**TABlE 18**

# **International Migralion Movements by Intended Duralion** of Residence (Arrivals) or Absence (Departures): New Zealand, 1974/75-19S3/84

|||_Arri_|_vals_|||_Depa_|_rtures_||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_Yearended_<br>_31 March_|_Short-Term_|<br>_long-Term_|_Permonent_|<br>_Tolal_|_Short-Term_|<br>_Long-Term_|_Permanent_|_Total_|
|1975|612,755|31,758|34,142|678,655|606,053|34,411|9,050|649,514|
|1976|630,204|28,414|20,046|678,664|630,312|35,852|7,308|673,472|
|1977|630,204|23,620|13,400|667,224|627,402|43,044|13,048|683,494|
|1978|678,808|22,784|14,188|715,780|674,256|45,344|18,336|737,936|
|1979|765,068|30,848|9,960|805,876|751,412|61,328|19,680|832,420|
|1980|884,332|30,838|10,769|925,939|871,229|52,149|23,875|947,253|
|1981|925,462|32,437|12,528|970,427|916,846|44,254|25,536|986,636|
|1982|900,995|32,980|12,312|946,287|894,256|37,055|19,719|951,030|
|19,83|869,609|33,259|12,595|915,463|857,347|30,360|12,314|900,021|
|1984|882,163|30,676|10,029|922,868|878,164|24,965|9,182|912,311|

NOTE: see lext for discussion of categories (i.e. short-term, long-term, permanent)

**iorme:** Deparinient of Siatisics (1977-1985), Trlin and Spoonley, 1986:24.
43 Provisional statistics from the 1986 census show the country of birth of foreign-born persons resident in New Zealand (Table 19). Of the nearly half million foreign-born persons enumerated, nearly half came from England and Scotland and 10 percent came from Australia. The United Kingdom continues to dominate the flow of more recent arrivals, but Asians have become considerably more prominent in recent years.

Table 19. Foreign-Born Population Resident in New Zealand by Place of Birth

|Birthplace|Residents|
|---|---|
|Australia|46,761|
|England|196,527|
|Scotland|38,064|
|Netherlands|24,132|
|Samoa|33,843|
|Cook Islands|15,534|
|Other|126,063|

Source: Department of Statistics (1987:Table 3).

Emigration from New Zealand has been the real dynamic component of international migration in recent years since it has fluctuated more widely than immigration (see Table 18). The annual number of persons leaving New Zealand for more than one year peaked at 61,328 in the year ending March 31, 1979, but such departures have dropped steadily since that time as the economy has picked up steam. Permanent departures peaked at 25,536 in the year ending March 31, 1981, and they have also dropped since that time. Between 1979/1980 and 1983/1984, the sex ratio of persons departing was 107.2 among New Zealand residents departing long-term and 106.5 among residents departing permanently (Farmer, 1986:32).

The net flow of permanent and long-term migrants has fluctuated substantially over time with a net inflow in some years and a net outflow in other years. Figure 6 shows how erratic the net figure has been and also shows the strong negative relationship between net migration in Australia and New Zealand. In fact, trans-Tasman migration has been particularly variable in recent years, as can be seen from Figure 7.

Population Projections. Net migration has been quite volatile in the recent past, but its overall magnitude has been relatively small. The historical pattern suggests that projections for the rest of the century should be close to zero. The Department of Statistics in Christchurch is currently producing a new series of population projections based on the estimated 1988 population. Several migration assumptions will be incorporated into the projections but the three main variants will assume annual net migration levels of +5,000, zero, and -5,000. These assumptions are based on past levels of migration: an average of about +5,000 over the last 80 years, zero over the last 20 years, and -5,000 over the last 10 years.
**6.** Figure Net Permanent and Long-ierm Migration in New Zealand and Australia **(in** Thousands)

<!-- Start of picture text --> 160 30<br>140- ,'''N/X X _ < _j ,, /\lGls.ew ZeAlan4 20<br>0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1<br>o 100- . *<br>z -1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0<br>0 I~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2<br>I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ '<br>40 ji -- 30<br>20- - -40<br>0 _ I - I - S50 I I --- I I - - 1 L -<br>1945 1950 1955 1960 196N 1970 1975 1980 1985<br>March Year (NZ) June Year (Aus)<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Source: Poot,** 1986: **_Figure_** _3._
> Figure 7. Net Trans-Tasman Migration: Total Amrvals Minus Total Departures

<!-- Start of picture text --> 5000<br>°- -<br>-5000l<br>-10000l<br>-15000I<br>0<br>o-20000\<br>-25000\<br>-30000<br>-35000<br>-40000 194 1950 1955 1980 a 1Q85 1970 1973 a-t---- 1180 15<br>Mormh Year<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Brosnan and Poot, 1986: Chart 1.
46 Alternative migration scenarios included in a set of five population projections completed by Poot, Nana, and Philpott (1988) range between -15,000 and +15,000 annually from 1989 to 2000, with the three middle scenarios being identical with the ones that will be used by the Department of Statistics. They state that net migration of zero for that period is the most likely official scenario. They also point out that less restrictive immigration controls announced in 1986 are already having an effect. A net outflow in the period ending March 1986 was followed by a net inflow in the year ending March 1987. Experts feel that there will probably be some inflow between 1985 and 2000 but that its magnitude should be small (fewer than 5,000 persons per year).

New Zealand Recommendations. The latest set of United Nations projections assumes that there was a net inflow of 30,000 persons in 1980-1985 and that there will be a slightly smaller net inflow of 25,000 for each fiveyear period through the year 2000. The previous World Bank assumptions are as follows: -25,000 for 1980-1985 and 1985-1990, -20,000 for 1990-1995, and -10,000 for 1995-2000. While either set of figures is plausible for future levels of net migration, I would propose a net level of zero for the years 1985-1990, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000. Given the turnaround to a positive net migration in 1986 and early 1987, a negative figure for the entire five-year period (1985-1990) seems less plausible than it did previously. It also makes it less likely that there will be net emigration in 1990-2000. For 1980-1985, the previous World Bank assumption of -25,000 (split about equally between males and females) is quite reasonable, although a smaller level of net emigration could also be argued for.

# ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

With more than half of the world's population, Asia has become one of the most dynamic areas in the world with regard to international migration. Emigration is common in many Third World countries in Asia and few countries have laws that restrict their citizens from leaving the country permanently. In recent years, Asia has become the dominant source region for immigrants to Canada, Australia, and the United States. Labor migration within Asia has also been picking up and illegal immigration is a very significant factor in several Asian countries. Unfortunately, Asian data on international migration are incomplete or non-existent throughout much of the region. Moreover, it is often difficult to determine when a move across national boundaries is permanent or temporary.

The Asian and Pacific region is plagued with political problems and ethnic disputes that will continue to affect international migration for the rest of the century. Some of the relevant political factors are: (1) moves toward democracy in the Philippines and in South Korea, (2) the removal of Russian troops from Afghanistan, (3) the impending return to China of Hong Kong in 1997 and Macao in 1999, (4) steps toward rapprochement between North and South Korea, (5) suppression of the democracy movement in China and restrictions on foreign travel, (6) the worsening political situation in Tibet, (7) ethnic problems between native Fijians and Indians in Fiji, (8) similar ethnic disputes in New Caledonia, (9) fighting between Tamils and
47 Sinhalese in Sri Lanka and India's attempts to mediate the dispute, (10) political problems among Bengalis, Sikhs and other groups in India, (11) the recent assassination in Pakistan, the installation of a new government, and ethnic violence in that country, (12) demonstrations and floods in Bangladesh, (13) internal strife in Myanmar that led to the resignation of Ne Win, (14) continuing refugee flows from Indo-China and Afghanistan, and (15) the cease fire between Iran and Iraq and possible overtures by Iran to improve its external relations with Europe and the United States.

The lack of sound data, uncertainties about economic growth, and emerging political developments make it very difficult to predict the future course of international migration in most Asian and Pacific countries. Fortunately, there are few Asian countries whose total population size will be vitally affected by international migration flows or by mistakes in estimating or predicting those flows. Relevant information and suggestions about estimates and projections for selected Asia/Pacific countries are outlined below.

# Hong Kong

The impending political changes in Hong Kong make the future course of migration particularly difficult to predict. Although the initial jitters regarding the return of Hong Kong to China calmed down for a while, recent developments have raised new concerns. Future political twists and turns in China itself will undoubtedly send shock waves through Hong Kong as well. Many Hong Kong residents are already making "escape plans" by obtaining immigrant visas for other countries or making sure they qualify for such visas if they decide to apply for them later. Moreover, it is not clear how many officials and others from China will eventually take up residence in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong's geographical isolation and excellent statistical systems should provide reasonable immigration statistics. However, even the current international migration situation is difficult to gauge because of illegal immigration and the large number of residents who have received immigrant visas for in other countries but continue to actually live in Hong Kong. According to the 1981 census, Hong Kong had over two million foreign-born residents, more than 90 percent of whom were from China. Other immigrants came primarily from Southeast Asia (87,125), the United Kingdom (21,178), South Asia (11,278), Japan (7,869) and the United States (6,586). Since the British government reached the agreement with China to return Hong Kong to its control, however, there has been an exodus of British citizens.

On an average day, the Hong Kong government catches and repatriates about 100 illegal Chinese immigrants. It is estimated that 75 new illegal Chinese immigrants per day evade detection. That works out to 27,375 per year or 136,875 over a five-year period. The current labor shortage in Hong Kong may attract further immigrants. Although Hong Kong's economy has slowed after two years of double-digit growth, there are still major shortages of construction workers, factory workers, and service workers. This shortage has caused a rapid rise in wage levels. Unemployment has dropped from 3.2 percent
48 in 1985, to 2.8 percent in 1986, 1.7 percent in 1987, and 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 1988 (Jones, 1988). Moreover, the level of underemployment (based on hours of work) is extremely low.

Besides attracting more immigrants, this situation may also help curtail emigration, at least in the short run. However, there is still a substantial desire to emigrate. In June, 1987, a random probability sample survey of 1,000 adults, conducted by Survey Research Hong Kong, measured the percentage of households with overseas interests. The survey found that 11 percent of the households had at least one member with a right to overseas residency and an additional 11 percent had at least one member who intended to emigrate sometime in the future (Survey Research Group, 1987). T*is would seem to indicate two offsetting phenomena. On the one hand, the s'ze of the group intending to emigrate indicates a substantial potential for future emigration (although clearly not a panic to do so). On the other hand, the survey supports the contention that many persons who have immigrant visas in other countries continue to physically live in Hong Kong.

Immigration statistics from the United States and Canada give mixed signals about the trend in actual emigration from Hong Kong. Immigration to the United States of persons born in Hong Kong has been dropping steadily for the past four years and immigration of persons who list Hong Kong as their country of last permanent residence has also been declining. On the other hand, immigration to Canada has been rising fairly steadily throughout the 1980s. After a slight reversal in 1986, immigration from Hong Kong skyrocketed to 16,170 in 1987 (more than double its previous annual highest level). There are also currently about 15,000 residents of Hong Kong who have the right of abode in the United Kingdom (Coleman, 1987), but it is not clear how many of them will actually leave Hong Kong in the next few years.

Pogulation Projections. The latest set of projections from the Census and Statistics Department cover the period 1987-2006. The projections assume a net immigration level of 13,800 per year in 1987-1991, 13,900 per year in 1992-1998, and 14,000 per year in 1999-2006. The rationale for these assumptions is given in the following quote from the report (Census and Statistics Department, 1987:5): In Hong Kong, migration is a significant element affecting the growth of the population. In the past, it has been influenced by factors which could not have been accurately predicted. The possibility of such factors recurring cannot be ruled out. In the context of this lon&-term population projection, the projection of the migration component was based on an analysis of the past trends and of more recent developments, taking into account existing Government policies. It was assumed that these trends and policies would continue in the future. On a trend basis it was assumed that there would be a net inflow ... of around 14,000 per annum over the period 1987-2006. There may, nevertheless, be variations in particular years in the size and the composition of the migration flows. For populat-ion projection purposes, it was further assumed that the sex-age distribution of the net
49

# immigrants would follow the average distribution observed during the period 1981-1986.

Hong Kong Recommendations. For the period 1980-1985, the most recently published estimates of both the United Nations and the World Bank appear to be too high. A net migration figure of 130,000 is more consistent with the official estimate of population growth for 1980-1985. The World Bank's previous assumption of 75,000 for 1985-1990 seems reasonable in the light of the new official estimate for that period. The official projections assume a nearly constant level of net migration of 69,300 for 1990-1995 and 69,600 for 1995-2000. The dramatic drop in net international migration in the most recent World Bank projections would be difficult to justify unless it is assumed that emigration will rise very sharply as 1997 approaches. While that is not an implausible assumption, I feel that a sharp rise in emigration (if it were to take place) would still be more than offset by increasing immigration from mainland China. In the light of recent evidence, I would recommend either adopting the official projections which assume about 70,000 for 1990-1995 and 1995-2000, or assuming a much more gradual decline than the World Bank previously proposed during that period.

# Pakistan. Iran. and Afghanistan

According to the World Bank definition, refugees should generally be allocated back to the country they left if they are living in camps and have not been permanently resettled in another country. Although Pakistan and Iran could be considered countries of first asylum for Afghani refugees, so far few of them have moved on to be permanently resettled in third countries. Nevertheless, it would be unreasonable to assume that all of the refugees will eventually return to Afghanistan. The United Nations is now assuming that perhaps 1/4 to 1/3 of refugees from Afghanistan will not return to Afghanistan since they are principally economic refugees rather than political refugees. Although most of the refugees are segregated in "camps" in Pakistan, these are not the type of closed camps that refugees are often confined to elsewhere. Refugees can move freely outside of the camps and they can also work outside of the camps. Some refugees have settled in cities in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan, especially in Peshawar. Some have settled in major industrial centers as far south as Karachi (Shah and Arnold, 1989). About 200,000 have settled in the Mianwali district of the Punjab. Many refugees have become well integrated into Pakistan's economy (running transportation services and small businesses) and they have become relatively successful at these pursuits. Many are learning Urdu and they are starting to assimilate into Pakistan society. Even if the Pakistan government eventually decides to repatriate the refugees, it will be difficult to do so. Because of their ethnic and religious kinship with Pakistanis in the North West Frontier Province, it would be difficult even to identify the refugees.

In Iran, most of the Afghan refugees have settled in Khorasan and Baluchistan province in the east. Large numbers also live in Teheran, Mashad, and other cities. The Iranian government has limited the refugees to 15 designated trades and has conscripted some of the refugees into the army for the war with Iraq. With the pull-out of Russian troops from Afghanistan and
50 the cease-fire in the Iran-Iraq war, some refugees will undoubtedly start to go home, but a large residual will remain behind for quite some time.

According to the latest World Refugee Survey (U.S. Committee for Refugees, 1988), in 1987 there were 3,541,400 refugees from Afghanistan in Pakistan and an additional 2,200,000 such refugees in Iran. Iran also has about 400,000 additional refugees, mostly of Iraqi origin. if even 5-10 percent of these refugees stayed on permanently, it would have a major effect on net international migration estimates for Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. These considerations will affect primarily the 1980-1985 period although at least 68,500 new refugees arrived in Pakistan in 1987 and there was a new influx of 41,000 Afghan refugees in Iran in the last three months of 1986 alone (U.S. Committee for Refugees, 1988).

Recommendations for Afghanistan. I would recommend a much higher level of net emigration than the previous World Bank estimates for 1980-1985, perhaps on the order of 200,000 to 250,000. About 60 percent of the outflow would be to Pakistan and 40 percent to Iran. The sex ratio of the emigrants might be slightly higher than 100, but it should not be much higher because most of the emigrants from Afghanistan move as entire families or even entire villages. For 1985-2000, I would suggest a modest net outflow of 20,000-25,000.

Recommendations for Pakistan. I would recommend reducing the World Bank's previous figures by the change in the amount of inflow from Afghanistan suggested above, i.e. to a net outflow of 198,000-228,000 for 1980-1985 and 255,000-258,000 in 1985-1990. The previous estimates of -150,000 for 1990-1995 and -50,000 for 1995-2000 may be a bit too low. The sex ratio of emigrants seems too high in all years, but particularly in the last two periods since relatively more women should emigrate as this migration stream matures.

Recommendations for Iran. The previous estimates for Iran should be reduced by the recommended level of permanent migration from Afghanistan in the 1980s. This would reduce emigration to around zero for 1980-85 or a small amount of net immigration (5,000-25,000). The level of net emigration for 1985-1990 would be reduced to 40,000-42,000. For 1995-2000, I would recomrmend a slight increase in the previous net emigration estimate to 20,000 persons.

# Bangdladesh

Net international'mfgration for Bangladesh should be held constant at its 1980-1985 level for the rest of the century. Emigration from Bangladesh to the United States has doubled in the last three years from about 800 annually in FY1984 to over 1600 in FY1986 and FY1987. Given the family reunification provisions of U.S. immigration law, immigration from Bangladesh will probably continue to increase for the next several years.
51

# China

The United Nations assumes no net international migration for China, but the World Bank's assumption of net emigration is much more reasonable. The only quantitatively important immigration into China has consisted of refugee flows (primarily of ethnic Chinese) from Vietnam. There are currently around 285,500 VIetnamese refugees in China (U.S. Committee for Refugees, 1988:46), but most of these arrived in China in 1978 and 1979. Net emigration of 150,000, as previously proposed by the World Bank, seems low giver. the large outflow to the United States and the continuing outflow of illegal migrants to Hong Kong. I would recommend a net level of emigration of 250,000 for 1980-1985 and 1995-2000 with slightly higher emigration in 1985-1995. Emigration to the United States, which is the primary destination for Chinese migrants, has been quite constant at around 25,000 anrually since 1982 when Taiwan was given a separate quota and the figures for mainland China were reported separately for the first time. This situation is likely to be unstable in the near future. It is likely that emigration to Hong Kong will increase as 1997 approaches. It is estimated that over 25,000 illegal immigrants from China enter Hong Kong each year and legal immigration will undoubtedly increase in the next 10-15 years as well.

With respect to the sex ratio, in recent years there have been slightly more females than males moving to the United States annually (see Table 20). Illegal immigration to Hong Kong is heavily male dominated, however. Nevertheless, the sex ratio of net emigrants previously used by the World Bank is too high, especially for 1985-2000. If we assume that three-quarters of illegal immigrants to Hong Kong are males and take the actual sex distribution of Chinese immigrants to the United States, then the overall sex ratio would be about 160. I would suggest this as a maximum sex ratio for the 1980-1985 period. If anything, the sex ratio should decrease somewhat after 1985.

Table 20. Immigration to the United States from Mainland China

|Fiscal Year|Males|Females|
|---|---|---|
|1982|12,149|13,469|
|1983|11,430|12,581|
|1984|11,132|12,231|
|1985|11,748|13,039|
|1986|11,812|13,294|
|1987|12,345|13,496|

Source: Immigration and Naturalization Service, Statistical Yearbooks, 1982-8b

# The Philippines

Between 1980 and 1984, 215,504 Filipinos legally immigrated to the United States alone, more than 20,000 moved to Canada, and more than 16,000 moved to Australia. Substantial numbers also moved to Europe and to other
52 countries in Asia. In addition, many Filipinos immigrated illegally especially to the United States. In fact, illegal immigration from the Philippines is so common that a special term has developed for these immigrants. They are known in the Filipino community and among immigration officers as TNT's, which is an acronym for the Tagalog expression meaning "hide and hide." The U.S. amnesty program for undocumented immigrants has also revealed a substantial influx of Filipinos. Offsetting these flows are an unknown number of Filipinos who emigrated from their countries of destination. Given this information, it would appear that the most recent World Bank figure of -250,000 for 1980-1985 is more supportable than the United Nations figure of -200,000. In the first three years of the 1985-1990 period, 150,596 Filipinos immigrated to the United States. If this level continues for the last two years of the period, the total would be 250,993. Again, this does not include legal immigration to other countries, illegal immigration, or emigration. It appears that in 1985-1990 net emigration from the Philippines will be at least as high as it was in 1980-1985 and it should approach a level of 275,000-300,000. A similar level should be maintained through the rest of the century.

# The Republic of Korea

The main destination of Korean emigrants is the United States. In 1980-1985, 163,088 Koreans immigrated to the United States. For the first three years of the 1985-1990 period, there were 106,878 such immigrants, or 178,130 immigrants for the five-year period if the same level of immigration were to be maintained. Koreans are less likely than Filipinos to move to countries other than the United States and they may be less prone to immigrate illegally as well, but they are also less likely to emigrate from the United States once they move there (Jasso and Rosenzweig, 1982). Therefore, given the same considerations mentioned in the case of the Philippines, I would recommend net emigration of 175,000 for 1980-1985 (halfway between the United Nations and previous World Bank estimates) and a similar figure for each fiveyear period through the end of the century.

# Other Asian Countries

The 1980-1985 levels for many of the remaining Asian countries seem generally reasonable but the rapid decline thereafter is not tenable. Given the arguments presented.in the United States section and the fact that Asia is the principal source of legal immigrants to the United States, it is clear that emigration from most Asian countries will remain stable if not increase for the rest of the century. This is particularly true from the largest sending countries (the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and India), but also from such locations as Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand.

The outflow from Vietnam can be expected to decrease, but not as rapidly as previously proposed by the World Bank, particularly if the Orderly Departure Program to the United States picks up steam. Moreover, there is currently a backlog of 20,000-30,000 Amerasian children and their family members waiting to come to the United States. Arrivals of Amerasians have
53 been running at about 200-300 per month, but after recent U.S.-Vietnam discussions, the State Department feels that the number could increase to 1,000 new arrivals per month.

For Sri Lanka, I have trouble reconciling the United Nation's estimate of -300,000 for 1980-1985 with the previous World Bank estimate of -60,000. I do not have data for the entire period, but the figures that I have show net emigration of -68,000 for 1980 and -50,000 for 1981. One possibility is that the United Nations is considering refugees from Sri Lansa who are currently in India (about 125,000 according to the U.S. Committee for Refugees). Nevertheless, the previous World Bank figure seems too low. I would suggest a figure of -125,000 for 1980-1985.

Finally, the sex ratios for net immigration from some countries (in particular India, Taiwan, and Vietnam) seem too high in the most recent World Bank projections. Information on the sex of immigrants from those countries to the United States for fiscal years 1982-1987 is shown in Table 21. There is only a very slight preponderance of males from India. The sex ratio for the six-year period is 102.3. While Indian emigration to the United States is only a minority of all Indian emigration, this would imply that the sex ratio of Indian emigration to countries other than the United States would be almost 300, which seems much too high. Moreover, the previous World Bank estimates have the sex ratio increasing slightly over time, which also seems unlikely. A sex ratio of around 130 in the early 1980s followed by a declining sex ratio over time might make more sense. For Taiwan, there are more females than males migrating to the United States. The sex ratio of Taiwan migrants to the United States was 88.0 for the period 1982-1987. Therefore, once again the previously estimated World Bank sex ratio seems too high. Perhaps an even distribution between the sexes would be more reasonable. For Vietnam, the overall sex ratio of 144.4 for immigrants to the United States for 1982-1987 is close to the previous World Bank figure of 150 for each five-year period. However, the sex ratio has been dropping (to 136 in FY1985, 130 in FY1986, and 122 in FY1987). The data seem to indicate a trend toward lower sex ratios for more recent years. Therefore, I would recommend a slightly lower sex ratio of about 140 for net emigration from Vietnam for 1980-1985 and 130 for each subsequent five-year period.

Table 21. Immigrants to the United States from India, Taiwan and Vietnam

||I|ndia|Tai|wan|Vi|etnam|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Fiscal Year|Male|Female|<br>Male|Female|Male|<br>Female|
|1982|10,452|<br>10,487|<br>4,678|5,200|41,758|<br>30,533|
|1983|12,420|<br>11,904|<br>7,722|8,747|22,997|<br>14,372|
|1984|12,655|<br>12,309|<br>5,880|6,598|37,236|<br>22,036|
|1985|13,330|<br>12,696|<br>6,905|'|1R197|<br>13 '9°|
|1986|13,248|<br>12,979|<br>6 2}||||
|1987|13,907|<br>13,896|<br>5,53'|.7<br>,<br>J7|||
|1982-87|76,012|<br>74,271|37,002|42,073|150,676|104,375|

Source: Immigration and Naturalization Service, Statistical Yearbooks, various years.
54

# AFRIC

African statistics on international migration do not provide a strong basis for estimating or projecting international migration flows for most countries in that region. For the most part the statistics (where they exist at all) are incomplete and out of date. Illegal migration is very common and largely unrecorded in many parts of Africa and refugee movements are a substantial component of migration flows. For these reasons, the study of international migration in Africa is "a frustrating exercise" (Adepoju, 1988:20). The future course of migration is also difficult to predict because of poor data, shifting international conflicts, natural disasters, economic uncertainties and changing laws governing immigration.

Most countries in Africa neithner want, nor accept, immigrants for permanent resettlement (United Nations, 1982). In much of sub-Saharan Africa, however, borders have traditionally been fairly open and undocumented migration is often considered "routine" (Adepoju, 1988). According to Adepoju (1979), consolidation of national boundaries after political independence has had only a minimal effect on migration, particularly in West Africa. National borders are often considered as artificial frontiers. This situation was implicitly recognized in the ECOWAS Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence and Establishment. Under this protocol, three stages have been set up to liberalize international movement among the 15 ECOWAS countries (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 1987a). The first phase, initiated in 1980, guarantees citizens of member countries who have valid travel documents the right of entry to other member countries without a visa for up 90 days. The second phase, which started in 1986, gives community citizens the right of residence in other member countries. The third phase, which is slated to begin in 1991, allows the "establishment" of community citizens in other member countries.

Despite a tradition of relatively free movement, international migration is increasingly being viewed as an assault on national sovereignty (especially in tropical Africa) and immigration controls have been tightened significantly in recent years (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 1987b). Nevertheless, a recent World Bank review of international migration in sub-Saharan Africa concludes that "there is no evidence ... that the volume of international migration will be substantially reduced in future. Migration to certain destinations may be curtailed, but historical patterns of movement suggest that new ones will emerge" (Russell and Jacobsen, 1988:II-21).

International migration patterns in Africa are complicated by the large volume of refugee flows. .It has been estimated that in 1987 the total number of refugees in African countries was 3,574,910 (U.S. Committee for Refugees, 1988). The largest numbers of refugees were in East Africa, but there were at least some refugees in 36 African countries (Table 22). Some voluntary repatriation efforts for refugees have met with a modicum of success, but they have involved only a small proportion of all refugees in Africa. Although the World Bank generally allocates back to their country of origin refugees who are living in camps and are not permanently resettled, it is likely that substantial numbers of refugees in Africa will never return to their home country. In most cases, however, the degree of permanent settlement is
55 difficult to estimate and it makes sense to allocate most or all of the current refugees back to their origin country.

For most countries in Africa the level of net international migration is so small that it will have little effect on population estimates and projections. The United Nation's 1987 Monitoring report estimates that 3/4 of the 31 African countries for which data were available had foreign-born populations that made up less than 4.1 percent of the total population, although these estimates were not based on very recent data in many cases (United Nations, 1988). The exceptions were Ghana (6.6 percent), Libya (8.8 percent), Gambia (11.1 percent), and Cote d'Ivoire (21.3 percent). The median sex ratio of the foreign-born population in 24 countries in Africa was 110, so there was only a slight preponderance of males in the migration flows. For several countries, the sex ratios of the foreign-born population were less than 100 (Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Comoros, Malawi, and Swaziland). On the other hand, the sex ratios were greater than 150 in Gambia, Liberia, Libya, Reunion, and South Africa.

The previous World Bank and United Nations estimates differ dramatically for only a small number of countries in Africa and most of the differences may be attributed to the way in which refugees are allocated. A few relevant considerations for selected countries are highlighted below.

Table 22. Refugees in Africa in Need of Protection and/or Assistance, 1987

|Algeria|167,000|Malawi|420,000|
|---|---|---|---|
|Angola|92,000|Morocco|800|
|Benin|3,700|Mozambique|500|
|Botswana|5,200|Nigeria|4,800|
|Burkina Faso|180|Rwanda|19,000|
|Burundi|76,000|Senegal|5,600|
|Cameroon|7,300|Sierra Leone|200|
|Central African Republic|<br>5,100|Somalia|430,000|
|Congo|1,200|South Africa|180,000|
|Cote d'Ivoire|600|Sudan|817,000|
|Djibouti|13,500|Swaziland|67,000|
|Egypt|1,080|Tanzania|266,000|
|Ethiopia|220,000|Togo|1,700|
|Gabon|100|Tunisia|200|
|Ghana<br>.|.<br>140|Uganda|120,400|
|Kenya|9,000|Zaire|338,000|
|Lesotho|2,000|Zambia|149,000|
|Liberia|110|Zimbabwe|150,500|

Note: Different sources vary substantially for the estimates for Algeria, Burundi, Lesotho, Somalia, South Africa, and Swaziland. Source: U.S. Committee for Refugees (1988:30-31).
56

## Keny

The World Bank previously assumed a small flow of net immigrants for each five-year period, while the United Nations assumed no net immigration in any period. Although the differences between the two sets of estimates are very small, it should be pointed out that the official population projections from the Central Bureau of Statistics assume that there is no net immigration between 1980 and 2000 (Central Bureau of Statistics, 1983).

# Zimbabwe

The World Bank previously estimated that net emigration would be 5,000 in 1980-1985 and again in 1985-1990, whereas the United Nations assumed a value of 25,000 in 1980-1985 and zero thereafter. Again, the differences are small. However, the official projections from the Central Statistical Office (1986) assume there is no net international migration for the period 1982-2032. The Central Statistical Office points out that according to official statistics there were 12,123 net emigrants in 1983, 11,412 net emigrants in 1984, and 1,454 net emigrants in the first six months of 1985. Although the publication suggests that unofficial movements may reduce or even negate net emigration, I would recommend a net emigration assumption of 25,000 for 1980-1985 and no net emigration for the rest of the century.

# Cote d'Ivoire

The World Bank previously estimated considerably larger net immigration to Cote d'Ivoire than the United Nations for 1980-1985, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000, but a similar level for 1985-1990. Net immigration may have decreased somewhat because of the economic crisis of the early 1980s (Hill, n.d.) and depressed prices for cocoa. However, I do not have sufficient information to be able to choose rationally between the two different estimates. It should be noted, though, that Russell and Jacobsen (1988) conclude that there is unlikely to be any significant reduction in immigration to Cote d'Ivoire (while at the same time noting the possible confounding effect of high unemployment rates among educated Ivoirians).

# Siouth Africa

The United Nations assumes no net international migration between 1980 and 2000, whereas the World Bank previously assumed net immigration to be 50,000 for 1980-1985 and 1985-1990, 40,000 for 1990-1995, and 26,000 for 1995-2000. According to the Bulletin of Statistics, immigration totalled 30,483 in 1983, 28,793 in 1984, and 17,284 in 1985. About two-thirds of the immigrants come from Zimbabwe and the United Kingdom. At the same time, there were 8,247 officials emigrants in 1983, 8,550 in 1984, and 11,401 in 1985. The emigration figures are probably underestimated, however, given the large number of legal immigrants from South Africa to the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, the United States and other countries. Overall, I would recommend somewhat lower net immigration assumptions of 40,000 for 1980-1985, 20,000 for
57 the next two five-year periods and 10,000 for 1995-2000. In addition, the sex ratio of immigrants is too high. The official figures show a sex ratio of 109.4 for the 22,236 net immigrants in 1983, 109.9 for the 20,243 net immigrants in 1984, and 100.4 for the 5,883 net immigrants in 1985. Even if it is assumed that nearly all illegal immigrants are male, I would expect much more of a balance in the sex distribution. Perhaps the sex ratio could be set at about 135 at the beginning of the series and decline for the remaining three periods.

There are also major differences between the previous World Bank and United Nations estimates for 1980-1985 in Libya (250,000 vs. 60,000), Morocco (-100,000 vs. -35,000), Mali (-125,000 vs. 0), and Sudan (-55,000 vs. 250,000). The large influx of refugees from Chad and Ethiopia in 1980-1985 may explain the difference for Sudan, but the source of the discrepancy in the other countries is uncertain. Finally, the sex distribution assumed by the World Bank for some of the emigration countries seems quite high (e.g. Botswana, 400; Burkina Faso, 233 for 1980-1985; Lesotho, 400; Mali, 148-238; Mauritania, 233; Malawi, 400-500; Sudan, 275-317; Somalia, 317-400; and Tunisia, 329). While I do not have any specific empirical data that are inconsistent with these assumptions, I feel that they are probably too high in most instances and that they should generally decrease over time as the migration stream matures. Adepoju (1988) has found that, at least in West Africa, recent international migration flows have included more women and children, which demonstrates a shift to more family migration. It is not unlikely that such a shift is occurring in other regions of Africa as well.

# THE MIDDLE EAST

The Middle East is another important region with inadequate information on international migration. Official data are often incomplete and inconsistent, if they are available at all. Moreover, official and semiofficial statistics in labor-importing countries in the Middle East tend to underestimate immigration (Seccombe, 1988).

Despite the existence of more than two million Palestinian refugees in the Middle East (U.S. Committee for Refugees, 1988), new refugee flows have not been a significant factor in the region during the 1980s. Temporary labor migration, on the other hand, is the most dynamic and volatile type of international movement in this region. Because of the inadequacy of the data, estimates of the magnitude of labor migration vary widely. Available data from the sending and receiving countries are inadequate sources of information on labor migrants. Birks, et al. (1983) estimated that there were approximately three million migrant workers in the Arab world in 1980. However, Demery (1986) estimated that there were about 2.5 million Asians working in the Middle East in 1981 (not counting accompanying dependents), almost three times as high as the 880,000 estimated by Birks, et al. for 1980. Owen (1985) estimated the overall size of the foreign labor force in the Middle East to be about 5.7 million in the early 1980s. In the Gulf region, in particular, the labor supply is dominated by migrant workers. In the early 1980s, for example, migrant workers constituted 89 percent of the labor force
58 in the United Arab Emirates, 85 percent in Qatar, and 79 percent in Kuwait (Nagi, 1986).

Temporary labor migration should not have any impact on the World Bank's estimates of net international migration. It is difficult to determine, however, how many of the labor migrants will stay in the labor-importing countries permanently. Those who do stay permanently should be counted as immigrants when they arrive in tha host country. It is believed that there is little potential for Asian migrants to stay in the Middle East indefinitely (Arnold and Shah, 1986). This is particularly true for labor migrants from East and Southeast Asia, who rarely bring their families with them and who have no desire to live permanently in the Middle East. The tendency to stay in the Middle East is somewhat higher for South Asians who have a longer history of migration to that area. Many countries in the Middle East have well-established communities of Indians and Pakistanis who have lived there for ten years or more. The greatest potential for the permanent immigration, however, comes from labor migrants from Yemen, Egypt and other countries in the area. These immigrants blend into the host society more easily and they are less reluctant to consider permanent settlement in the labor-importing countries.

In the 1950s and 1960s, labor flows within the Middle East often resulted in permanent settlement (United Nations, 1982). Even though the situation has changed significantly since that time, it would still be wise to assume that a small proportion of South Asians and a somewhat larger proportion of labor migrants from the Middle East and North Africa will stay on permanently in many Middle Eastern destination countries.

Most of the previous World Bank estimates for the Middle Eastern region seem reasonable. A few comments about pecific country situations appear below.

# Israel

The previous World Bank and United Nations estimates are in reasonably close agreement for most periods, but the World Bank has used a much higher net immigration figure for 1980-1985. I do not have data for that entire period, but I would note that according to a 1980 report, there was a decrease in the number of Jews immigrating to Israel and about 2,000 Israelis per month were emigrating at that time (United Nations, 1982). Lamdany (1982) found that 1980 was the year with the highest ever rate of emigration from Israel (8.8 per thousand residents). Moreover, it has been estimated that in 1982 the number of emigrants approximately equalled the number of immigrants. Emigration to the United States has been substantial during the 1980s. Between fiscal year 1980 and fiscal year 1987, an average of 3,415 persons born in Israel immigrated to the United States per year (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988, 1987). However, the number of U.S. immigrants who report Israel as their country of last residence is even higher (an average of 4,392 per year for fiscal years 1982-1987). [Note that no immigration statistics by country of last residence exist for 1980-1981]. In addition, more than 9,000 Israelis immigrated to Canada between 1980 and 1987 (Employment and Immigration Canada, 1987, and unpublished tables from
59 Employment and Immigration Canada). Given all of this information (which admittedly is quite incomplete), I would think that a lower net immigration assumption of 25,000 might be more appropriate for 1980-1985. Twenty-five thousand is also the migration assumption for the official medium projection for each five-year period from 1985-2010 (Central Bureau of Statistics, 1988).

The World Bank's previous net emigration assumption for 1980-1985 is twice as high as that of the United Nations. Moreover, for 1985-2000, the World Bank previously assumed no net migration while the United Nations assumed emigration of 100,000 in 1985-1990 and 50,000 in 1990-1995. Although the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1983) estimates in 1983 assumed no net international migration for Egypt, I prefer the United Nations estimate for 1985-1990 and continuing net emigration of 80,000 for 1990-1995 and 60,000 for 1995-2000.

# Other Middle Eastern Countries

The previous World Bank assumptions of net international migration for the other countries in the Middle East seem quite reasonable, but I would question whether or not the sex ratio of immigrants and emigrants will continue to remain so highly skewed toward uiales as time progresses. For most five-year periods, the sex ratio is assumed to be about 250 for Kuwait and 300 for Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the Yemen Arab Republic, and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen. While these high sex ratios may prevail at the beginning of the period, it is likely that these international migration flows will become somewhat less dominated by males as time progresses. Therefore, I would suggest a reduction of the sex ratio for Kuwait to 210 in 1990-1995 and 190 in 1995-2000 and substantial reductions in the sex ratios of the other countries mentioned above as well.

# LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Illegal immigration tends to dominate in this region, so it is difficult to obtain accurate immigration and emigration data. There are some indications that illegal immigration was increasing in Latin America through the early 1980s (United Nations, 1982), but economic difficulties in some major receiving countries since that time have probably dampened illegal flows in the last few years. Refugees are not a major force in the region, although in general the refugees who are resident in the region have taken up permanent residence in their destination countries (Balan, 1988). The largest numbers of refugees are in Mexico (about 165,000 from El Salvador and Guatemala), Honduras (about 52,000, mostly from Nicaragua and El Salvador), and Costa Rica (about 32,000, mostly from Nicaragua). Overall, the U.S. Committee for Refugees (1988) estimates that there are only 290,000 refugees in Latin America and the Caribbean.
60 Some countries in this region (such as Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, and Paraguay) have expressed a desire to attract immigrants, but they want to be selective in the type of person they admit. Usually immigrants with technical skills are most sought after. Policies with respect to illegal immigrants have varied substantially in response to the economic and political situation in the receiving countries, but it has not proven easy to control these flows. In fact, economic conditions themselves are usually a more powerful controlling factor than are policies and laws regarding illegal immigrants. In many countries in the region, the size of net international migration is fairly small. Moreover, for most countries there is reasonable agreement as to the approximate magnitude of net international migration. However, some major differences of opinion about current and future migration flows still exist. A few considerations about specific country estimates and projections are outlined below.

# Cuba

During tle Mariel exodus in the Spring of 1980 about 125,000 Cuban exiles arri-red in the United States (Pedraza-Bailey, 1985; Bach, Bach, and Triplett, 1-31). Aside from this massive influx, only a trickle of Cubans have entered _he United States since 1980. There is no information for 1981, but refugee arrivals averaged only 295 Cubans per year in fiscal years 1982-1987 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988). Large numbers of Cubans have continued to adjust to permanent resident status in the last few years but almost all of them entered the United States in 1980. For example, of the 26,927 Cuban refugees granted lawful permanent resident status in FY1987, 25,711 arrived in 1980 and only 449 arrived at any time after 1980 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988). Therefore, the fact that 72,334 Cuban immigrants were admitted to the United States in fiscal years 1985-1987 is deceiving since almost all of them arrived in 1980 or even earlier (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988, 1987). Aside from refugees, a few persons who report Cuba as their country of last permanent -- residence have acquired immigrant status in the United States each year approximately 5,000 in fiscal years 1982-1984 and 3,000 in fiscal years 1985-1987 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1983-1987). Finally, a small number of Cuban immigrants have returned to Cuba in the last few years.

Given these considerations, it seems that the World Bank's proposed net emigration figure of 150,000 for Cuba in 1980-1985 is more reasonable than the 210,000 estimate of the United Nations, unless there are large numbers of Cubans emigrating to other countries. However, since there has been a very small number of new arrivals to the United States since 1980, I would think that the 1985-1990 estimates of both the World Bank (-100,000) and the United Nations (-90,000) are too high, unless there is a renewed exodus in the next two years. A more reasonable figure for the 1985-1990 period might be -50,000, which is the same as the World Bank's previous estimate made in 1984. The latest World Bank figures for 1990-2000 look reasonable, except that the figure for 1995-2000 might be raised to -40,000. If Cuba improves its relations with other countries in the region, as other Communist countries have been doing, then the exodus from Cuba might actually increase (or at
61 least not decrease) for the rest of the cenitury. Therefore, the assumptions for the 1990s may be conservative.

Finally, there should be a slight preponderance of males for the periods 1980-1985 and 1985-1990. Since the Immigration and Naturalization Service inadvertently destroyed much of the data on the sex of immigrants for FY1980-1982, data on the sex distribution of Cuban immigrants is available only for FY1983-1987. During the latter five years, the sex ratio of the Cuban refugees granted lawful permanent resident status was 127.3 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1984-1988). I would suggest a sex ratio of 120 for 1980-1985, 110 for 1985-1990, and 100 (the same as previously proposed by the World Bank) for 1990-2000.

# Mexico

The most crucial and controversial estimates in this region are for Mexico. Since I have supported a rather high figure for net immigration to the United States overall and since Mexico is the single largest source country for immigrants to the United States, the proposed assumptions for Mexico will obviously have to be quite large throughout the twenty-year period under consideration. The inflow of foreigners to Mexico is quite small (Garcia y Criego, 1987), so we can focus on the outflow of Mexican citizens and their return.

Since Mexican data cannot be relied upon to produce accurate estimates of the extent of movement to the United States, it is better to rely on U.S. data sources in this case. Between 1980 and 1985 (fiscal years), 330,690 persons born in Mexico legally immigrated to the United States. Kraly and Warren (1988) have recently estimated that legal immigration from Mexico might have to be increased by 8.5 percent to fit the U.N.'s definition of long-term immigration, but most of that increase would be compensated for by higher estimates of emigration in future years. There is some additional Mexican emigration to countries other than the United States, but the magnitude is small -- for example, just a few hundred per year to Canada (Employment and Immigration Canada, 1987).

We should add to gross legal immigration about 450,000-600,000 undocumented immigrants from Mexico (net). Next it is necessary to subtract emigration to Mexico of both Mexican natives and foreign-born persons. Various estimates of emigration to Mexico abound, but the range of plausible figures is quite wide. One estimate is that emigration from the United States was 19.5 percent as large as legal immigration during the decade 1970-1980 (Warren and Kraly, 1985). An earlier estimate suggested that somewhere between 15.6 percent and 56.2 percent of the FY1971 cohort of legal immigrants from Mexico to the United States may have emigrated by January 1979 (Jasso and Rosenzweig, 1982). Given this background, the World Bank's previous estimate of -750,000 for 1980-1985 seems eminently reasonable.

The rapid decline in net emigration in the next three five-year periods, however, cannot be supported. Both legal and illegal immigration from Mexico to the United States have remained high in the last three years and show no
62 signs of dropring. For fiscal years 1985-1987, legal immigration has averaged 66,654 per year, slightly higher than the average for the previous five years. Moreover, from FY1984 to FY1987 legal immigration from Mexico increased at an average annual rate of 7.9 percent. Finally, there is no indication that emigration from the United States to Mexico is increasing. Therefore, I would recommend that net international migration for 1985-1990, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000 remain constant at the 1980-1985 level of 750,000. It should be noted that the United Nations also makes a constant assumption for the period, although at a lower level.

# El Salvador

A new study by Georgetown University's Hemispheric Migration Project reports that one million Salvadorans now live in the United States and almost half of them did not qualify for the IRCA amnesty program (i.e., they arrived in the United States after January 1, 1982). Other studies have put the total size of the Salvadoran population in the United States at 500,000-900,000. The Georgetown study was based on survey interviews of 2,000 families in El Salvador in 1986 and 1987 and 1,300 Salvadorans living in the United States. The study found that 3/4 of the stock of Salvadorans in the United States arrived after 1979 and 48.8 percent arrived after 1981. Since legal immigration from El Salvador to the United States has been running at an average annual level of 10,000 or less, it is clear that the majority of Salvadorans in the United States are in an illegal status. This is consistent with the fact that Salvadorans were the second largest group to apply for amnesty under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. Although 46 percent of the respondents in the Georgetown study said they want to eventually return to El Salvador, 57 percent said they intend to become U.S. legal residents. On a much smaller scale, immigration from El Salvador to Canada has burgeoned in the last five years. From a level of only 112, immigration to Canada increased to an annual average of 2,670 in 1983-1985 and further to 3,352 in 1986-1987 (Employment and Immigration Canada, 1987, and unpublished tables from Employment and Immigration Canada).

Since major political and economic changes that would improve the situation in El Salvador do not seem imminent, continued emigration at a high level seems likely. I would suggest that the World Bank adopt estimates of -382,000 and -212,000 for the first two periods and a level of -175,000 and -150,000 for 1990-1995 and 1995-2000 respectively.

# Venezuela

Venezuela has been one of the few countries in Latin America that has been a net recipient of immigrants in recent years. It has also been the most important destination for illegal immigrants. However, there have been large annual shifts in net international migration due to policy changes and fluctuating oil prices. An amnesty for undocumented immigrants in 1980 signed up 266,795 persons (301,662 persons counting children), but the actual number of illegal immigrants was thought to be much larger at the time (Van Roy, 1984). The international migration situation changed dramatically subsequent
63 to that time due to the stagnation of the economy in the early 1980s and the strong devaluation of the bolivar in 1983 (Pellegrino, 1984). Since Venezuela had become structurally dependent on foreign workers (United Nations, 1982), there was still a substantial demand for labor from Colombia and other countries at that time.

The stock of foreign workers was atill large in the early 1980s. Castano (1988) estimated that there were more than one million Colombians alone working in Venezuela, but that Colombian labor migration to neighboring countries has virtually ceased. Torrealba (1987) also reported that illegal immigration may have decreased in the early 1980s and that the emigration of both immigrants and Venezuelans increased at the same time. Van Roy (1984) confirmed this trend, arguing that both legal and illegal migrants were beginning to leave Venezuela in the early 1980s and he estimated a level of net emigration of over 66,000 for 1980-1982. I cannot evaluate the quality of this estimate, but there does seem to be substantial evidence of a turnaround in international migration patterns in the early 1980s. Therefore, the World Bank's previous immigration figure of 250,000 for 1980-1985 seems quite high (it is also much higher than the estimate of 75,000 by the United Nations for the same period). I would suggest reducing the 1980-1985 estimate to about 100,000 unless there is some specific evidence that the above information is wrong or that there was another reversal in the trend in 1984 and 1985. Moreover, the drop in net immigration in the last three periods seems too rapid, particularly in the event that oil prices recover. I would suggest net immigration of 75,000 for 1985-1990, 50,000 for 1990-1995, and 35,000 for 1995-2000.

# Colombia

The estimates of net international migration for Colombia need to mesh with the estimates for Venezuela. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the level of Colombian emigration to the United States. In fiscal years 1980-1984, an average of 10,182 Colombians immigrated to the United States legally each year (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1987). In FY1985-1987, the annual figure increased slightly to 11,697. In addition, there has been a considerable amount of illegal immigration from Colombia. Of the 266,795 undocumented immigrants who applied for amnesty in Venezuela in 1980, 246,194 were Colombians (Van Roy, 1984). It has been estimated that overall there were between 900,000 and 1,100,000 Colombians living abroad in 1980 (Diaz-Briquets and Frederick, 1984) and illegal immigration to other countries has continued to be strong during the 1980s.

The net emigration rate from Colombia declined steadily Letween 1964 and 1982, but the rate still stood at 1.8 per 1,000 during the period 1978-1982 (World Bank, 1984). This translates into net emigration of just under 50,000 persons per year for that period. This figure, however, seems low if both legal and undocumented movement are taken into account. On the other hand, the current World Bank estimate of 250,000 for 1980-1985 seems rather high given the restrictions placed on immigration to Venezuela during that period. I would suggest reducing emigration from Colombia to 200,000 for 1980-1985,
64 keeping it at the same level for 1985-1990, and then reducing it more slowly to 180,000 in 1990-1995 and finally to 125,000 for 1995-2000.

# Haiti

From FY1980 to FY1984, 40,265 Haitians legally immigrated to the United States. Since that time legal immigration has increased to an annual level of 12,550 (or 62,750 for 1985-1990 if that level were to remain constant fnr 1988 and 1989). Haitian immigration to Canada has also been substantial -- ls,137 total immigrants in 1980-1987. In addition, illegal migration from Haiti to the United States has been very substantial and the treatment of such migrants continues to be highly controversial. Given the extent of both legal and illegal immigration, I would recommend a net migration figure of -100,000 for 1980-1985. Moreover, in the light of rapidly increasing levels of legal immigration to the United States over the last three years (10,165 in FY1985, 12,666 in FY1986, and 14,819 in FY1987), I would recommend an increase in the level of net emigration to 110,000 for each subsequent five-year period.

# Other Latin American and Caribbean Countries

For Guatemala, the World Bank's net emigration level for 1980-1985 (15,000) is only one tenth as high as the United Nations estimate and it is out of line with the estimates for other years. Unless there are special circumstances that were taken into account for that period, I would think an emigration level at least as large as the 1985-1990 figure (130,000) would be more appropriate. For 1990-2000, I would recommend a less rapid reduction to -124,000 in 1990-1995 and -116,000 in 1995-2000. For Guyana, immigration to both the United States and Canada has been increasing rapidly in the 1985-1987 period. In all, 8,531 persons born in Guyana immigrated to the United States in FY1985, compared to 10,367 in FY1986 and 11,384 in FY1987. Similarly, 2,301 persons born in Guyana immigrated to Canada in 1985, 3,905 in 1986, and 6,073 in 1987. This would suggest gross immigration to those two countries alone of 75,000 or more for 1985-1990. I would recommend net emigration of 70,000 for 1985-1990, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000. Jamaican legal immigration to the United States and Canada is currently averaging nearly 25,000 persons per year and illegal migration is also substantial. Therefore, I would increase net emigration to 110,000 for 1985-1990 and maintain that level through the year 2000. For Brazil, immigration to the United States and Canada is currently about 2,500 persons per year. I would recommend a small amount of net emigration (10,000 persons) for each five-year period from 1985 to 2000. For the Dominican Republic, legal immigration to the United States alone averaged nearly 25,000 persons per year in FY1985-FY1987 and illegal immigration is also substantial. I would recommend net emigration of at least 110,000 persons for 1985-1990, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000. For Honduras, a small net outflow (20,000 per five-year period) seems most likely for the rest of the century. For the net emigration countries of Bolivia, Belize, Barbados, Chile, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, and Trinidad and Tobago, I would recommend holding net emigration steady at the 1985-1990 level for the rest of the century. If there is any decline at all, it should be much more gradual than the previously proposed World Bank assumptions.
65

# EUROPE

International migration statistics for Europe are better than those for most other regions, but they are still entirely inadequate for producing reliable estimates of net inte-.dtional migratior. A major problem is the lack of comparability of international migration statistics among countries in the region (Kelly, 1987). Although organizations such as SOPEMI (Systeme d'Observation Permanente sur les Migrations) and the Conference of European Statisticians have been working to improve the quality and comparability of international migration data, progress has been rather slow. The lack of comparability becomes painfully obvious when one examines the major differences in the matrices of migration among European countries as reported by the countries of immigration and the countries of emigration (Kelly, 1987). Nevertheless, the annual changes in these matrices do provide a reasonably accurate picture of changes in population movement from year to year in individual countries.

When European countries decided that they no longer needed so many foreign guestworkers in their economies, attempts were made in virtually every country to stem the flow of new workers and to repatriate large numbers of existing workers. In country after country, however, repatriation programs failed to have the desired effect. By and large, they were costly failures. While the number of foreign workers in Europe decreased by about 20 percent between 1973 and 1982, the number of foreign residents actually increased. Papademetriou (1988) attributes this anomaly to the "leakage into permanence" that inevitably accompanies guestworker programs throughout the world.

The last year or two has seen the imposition of more restrictive imigration legislation in many European countries (particularly w',th regard to refugees and asylees), but legal immigration has nevertheless been increasing in many countries. SOPEMI (1988:2) attributes the pattern of immigration increases in 1986 to "factors such as family reunification, admissions of refugees and of people seeking asylum and, in some instances, improving economic conditions." In the coming years immigration to Europe is unlikely to decrease much because there should be a strong demand for entry level workers which cannot be met from within each country. The baby bust in Europe may add to this demand, but the demand for labor will be largely generated by economic factors.

The future of international migration in Europe is difficult to predict since it depends so crucially on economic conditions. International migration within the European community will become even easier, but additional restrictions may well be put on immigration from outside the community. Public tolerance of immigration from certain countries may be tested due to social tensions, but if the economic situation continues to improve in many European countries the demand for workers will probably override emerging social concerns. Although these broad considerations may help to predict international migration trends in Europe in general, local conditions need to be assessed more carefully. Some relevant considerations for individual countries are outlined below.
66

## BelsEium

While the United Nations assumes a small net inflow of immigrants through the year 2000 (25,000 for each five-year period), the World Bank has recently changed its assumption from a declining inflow over time to a small net outflow from 1985 to 2000. I would recommend a constant net inflow of 15,000 per five-year period after 1985 on the basis of information about recent migrant inflows. The net inflow of the foreign population amounted to 4,000 persons in 1985 and 6,600 persons in 1986 (SOPEMI, 1988). In each of those years there were more immigrants and fewer emigrants than the previous year. In 1986, there was a substantial increase in immigrants from Spain, Portugal, Asia, Africa, and the United States, which was partially offset by a lower level of immigration from Morocco. A very significant factor in immigration to Belgium has been an increase in asylum seekers (of whom there were 6,117 persons in 1986). Given the recent rise in net immigrants and the prospect of the conditions that gave rise to increasing immigration continuing, a small net inflow of immigrants seems appropriate.

# Federal ReDublic of Germany

Net international migration to Germany has fluctuated substantially in the 1980s. The decade started off with a very high inflow of foreigners (631,400 in 1980 and 501,100 in 1981) accompanied by an outflow of foreigners of 400,000 per year in 1980 and 1981 (SOPEMI, 1988). However, the inflow declined rapidly to only 273,200 in 1983 at the same time that the outflow was increasing (tc a peak of 545,100 in 1984). Since that time, the inflow has been rapidly increasing and the outflow rapidly decreasing. The outflow was particularly heavy during the period that the Repatriation Assistance Act was in effect, from late 1983 to September, 1984. Although 306,000 aliens left Germany during that period, repatriation did not have much of a lasting impact on the total resident foreign population. In fact, the total stock of foreigners living in Germany increased slightly from 4,453,300 in 1980 to 4,482,500 in 1986.

Most of the international movement of population into Germany consisted of guestworkers who do not have permission to settle in Germany permanently, but Papademetriou (1988) says that there is evidence that the majority of labor migrants to Germany might stay on permanently. Although on a much smaller scale, the inflow of asylum seekers has become a major factor in migration flows to Germany. The number of asylum seekers increased from 19,757 in 1983 to 99,650 in 1986 (SOPEMI, 1988). New controls on asylum seekers were introduced in 1987 and requests for asylum dropped by 45 percent in the first five months of 1987 (compared with the same period a year earlier).

It is interesting to note that the United Nations assumes that there is no net international migration in the case of Germany for the entire period 1980-2000, whereas the World Bank has been assuming net immigration of 200,000 in 1980-1985, 100,000 for 1985-1990, 60,000 for 1990-1995, and 40,000 for 1995-2000. In light of the fact that the foreign population recorded in the municipal registers actually decreased from 4,453,300 in September 1980 to
67 4,365,900 in September 1985, net immigration of 200,000 does not seem justifiable for the 1980-1985 period. Although these stock figures are not complete and they do not include illegal migration, it is unlikely that net migration could have been so large during that period. I would recommend net immigration of only 50,000 for 1980-1985 and 1985-1990, 40,000 for 1990-1995, and 30,000 for 1995-2000. Moreover, I would give a slight edge to male immigrants between 1980 and 1990 (perhaps 55 percent of the total) since male immigrants have predominated so far during the 1980s.

# France

France is another country with a considerable difference between the World Bank and United Nations figures. For 1985-2000, the United Nations assumes that there will be no net international migration, whereas the World Bank assumes net immigration of 155,000, 100,000 and 50,000 for the three five-year periods. Information on immigration to and emigration from France is quite scanty, which might account for the differences between the two sodrces of estimates. The stock of foreign population in France increased by 237,000 between the two censuses in 1975 and 1982 (SOPEMI, 1988). By far the ;_argest number of immigrants came from Algeria and Portugal. The annual household survey of employment, conducted by INSEE, found that the stock of foreign labor in France increased by 200,000 between 1980 and 1984. There is some information on the inflow of foreign population through 1984, but no information on emigration. According to SOPEMI (1988), between 1979 and 1984 the annual inflow of foreign workers (subject to the control of the National Immigration Office) who obtained a permanent work permit plus family members of already established workers varied between 45,800 and 57,500 in most years. The only exceptions were 1981 and 1982 which witnessed the regularization of large numbers of illegal workers.

Given the sparse data available for France, it is difficult to reach a conclusion for the period 1985-2000. Legislation promulgated in 1985, 1986, and 1987 to stem clandestine work appears to be having some effect already, which suggests a possible decrease in illegal immigration. In addition, immigration from France to the United States and Canada currently-exceeds 4,000 persons per year. I would recommend a lower figure (105,000) than the World Bank previously proposed for net immigration for 1985-1990 and a decline to 80,000 in 1990-1995 and to 70,000 in 1995-2000.

# United Kingdom

International migration data are also deficient in the case of the United Kingdom. There is no emigration control from the United Kingdom and there is no information on flows in either direction between the United Kingdom and Ireland. Illegal immigration is a relatively minor problem and the immigration authorities are very efficient at rooting out overstayers. In all, only about 1,000 illegal immigrants are detected by immigration officials each year (Coleman, 1987) and many of these cases are simple technical violations of the law. Immigration to the United Kingdom for settlement purposes has continued the decline that started a decade ago. The number of
68 permanent settlers declined to 55,300 in 1985 and 46,800 in 1986 (SOPEMI, 1988). However, the average net emigration of 64,000 per year in 1980-1982 has been replaced by an increasingly large net immigration after 1982. Net immigration was estimated at 17,000 in 1983, 37,000 in 1984, and 59,000 in 1985. Apparently this trend continued in 1986.

Information from the international migration data bank at the United Nations shows a net outflow of 78,000 persons between 1980 and 1985. The quality and completeness of these estimates, however, is unknown. In 1987 alone, nearly 42,000 persons from the United Kingdom moved to Australia, Canada, and the United States. Under the circumstances, I would continue net emigration at a constant level of 150,000 per five-year period through the end of the century.

# Ireland

Net emigration from Ireland should be higher than the previous World Bank assumptions for all years. Illegal immigration to the United States is thought to have been quite substantial during the 1980s and legal immigration to the United States has also been increasing rapidly -- from 1,397 in FY1985 to 1,839 in FY1986 and further to 3,060 in FY1987 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988). Moreover, recent changes in U.S. immigration law favor more immigration from Ireland at least for the 1988-1990 period. Emigration to other countries is also substantial and the prospects are for continuing emigration through the end of the century.

During the three-year period ending in mid-April of 1984, the Central Statistics Office of Ireland estimated that there was a net outflow of 18,000 persons (CSO, 1985). Based on this situation and other available information, the Central Statistics Office made population projections with two migration variants. The first variant assumed net emigration of 25,000 persons in 1981-1986 and 37,500 in 1986-1991. The higlh emigration variant assumed net emigration of 50,000 in 1981-1986 and 75,000 in 1986-1991. I would recommend net emigration rates of 35,000 for 1980-1985, and 50,000 for 1985-1990, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000 (evenly split between males and females for all years).

# Italy

International migration patterns in Italy are unusual in that Italians are leaving the country for other parts of Europe and the United States while foreigners are immigrating to Italy, both legally and illegally. SOPEMI (1988) notes that in 1986 there was a slowdown in migration both from and to other countries. At the same time, there was a tendency for Italians to settle permanently in other countries and a growing interest in immigration to Italy from foreign countries. The very large component of illegal migration continues to complicate the Italian migration picture. As of September 27, 1987, nearly 90,000 illegal immigrants had applied for regularization under a law put into force at the end of 1986, but it has been estimated that ten times that many illegal immigrants actually reside in Italy (SOPEMI, 1988).
69 With respect to emigration from Italy, Simon (1987) notes a growing distaste among Italians to emigrate as the country develops, but still expects that there will be considerable emigration in the near future. The lack of solid information makes projections difficult but I would recommend adopting the United Nations assumptions of zero net international migration in 1985-2000. This would assume that the emigration of nearly 4,000 Italians per year to the United States and Canada would be approximately offset by a similar level of net immigration from other parts of the world.

# Netherlands

The Netherlands wants to increase emigration because of its very high population density, but emigration of the foreign population has decreased steadily since 1982 (SOPEMI,1988). The annual inflow of foreigners also decreased substantially until 1983 but it has increased by 45 percent since that time (SOPEMI, 1988; Entzinger, 1985). The stock of the foreign population is estimated to have increased from 520,900 in 1980 to 552,500 in 1985 (a jump of 31,600). No information is available on the net immigration of native-born persons or on illegal immigration, so it is difficult to arrive at a reliable overall figure for net immigration. However, the United Nations figures seem more reasonable than the World Bank figures. I would recommend net immigration of 75,000 persons in 1980-1985, 50,000 in 1985-1990, 40,000 in 1990-1995, and 30,000 in 1995-2000.

# Norway

Norway experienced actual net immigration of 4,346 persons per year during 1973-1984 and 4,727 persons per year in 1981-1984 (Statistisk Sentralbyra, 1986). Based on this fairly constant level of net immigration, Statistisk Sentralbyra has used a constant annual figure of 4,000 for the net migration assumption of their population projections for 1986-2000. An alternative projections shows the pattern of population growth in the absence of any net international migration. Given these scenarios, either the World Bank or the United Nations figures appear reasonable for 1985-2000. I would recommend increasing the net immigration figure for 1980-1985 to 20,000 and then accepting the United Nations assumptions for the other periods.

# Poland

Continuing political and economic uncertainties in Poland have precipitated substantial emigration in the 1980s. From 1980 to 1985, there were more than 50,000 immigrants from Poland to the United States and Canada alone, and return migration must have been negligible. At the current rate of migration, there will be 60,000 immigrants to the United States and Canada in 1985-1990. Therefore, I would recommend net emigration of 45,000 in 1980-1985 and 65,000 in 1985-1990, dropping slowly to 60,000 in 1990-1995 and to 55,000 in 1995-2000.
70

# Portugal

Portugal is another country that wants to increase emigration to alleviate unemployment problems. Portugal still has a high emigration potential because of its low productivity and relatively high fertility (Simon, 1987). Many experts believe that there will be a substantial outflow from Portugal when free movement of labor within the European Community becomes operative in the early 1990s. A few, however, think there is a potential for Portugal to become a net immigration country within ten years, again because of its position in the European Community. On balance, I -ould recommend fixing net emigration at 50,000 in 1985-1990, 40,000 in 1990-1995, and 30,000 in 1995-2000.

# Sweden

The decline in net immigration in the previous World Bank figures over time seems too rapid, particularly in the light of a resurgence in net immigration among the foreign population from 1983 to 1987 (SOPEMI, 1988; Salt, 1987). In 1986, 25,100 non-Nordic citizens immigrated to Sweden, the highest level since 1970. The number of asylum seekers has also been inching upward, from 12,000 new arrivals in 1984 to about 15,000 in 1987 (SOPEMI, 1988). I would recommend increasing net immigration to 35,000 in 1985-1990, 30,000 in 1990-1995, and 20,000 in 1995-2000.

# Turkey

Despite cutbacks in guestworker programs in Europe, Turkey still has a considerable potential for emigration. Turkey is burdened with a very high rate of natural increase, a saturated employment market and high inflation (Simon, 1987). However, it is increasingly difficult for Turkish citizens to find host countries to move to. The 1980-1985 period saw decreasing emigration from Turkey to Europe and the Middle East and large-scale return migration from Europe. Under the circumstances, it seems that the net emigration figures previously used by the World Bank for 1980-1985 are too high. I would recommend net emigration assumptions of 75,000 in 1980-1985, 67,000 in 1985-1990, 50,000 in 1990-1995, and 30,000 in 1995-2000.

# Romania

Between 1985 and 1987, Romanian immigration to. the United States and Canada averaged 5,828 persons per year and few Romanians can be expected to return to their country of origin soon. Therefore, net emigration on the order of 30,000 persons per year is in order for each five-year period after 1985.
71

# Yuosaxia

While some Yugoslavian labor migrants are nettling in their European host countries, others have begun emigrating in larger numbers to Australia, the United States and Canada (nearly 6,000 to those three countries in 1987 alone). Under the circumstances, I would recommend net emigration from Yugoslavia of at least 25,000 persons per five-year period from 1985 to 2000.