**Table A2: US Import Elasticities, 1999-2008 (Quarterly Data)**

||||_US goods i_|**Long-run in**<br>_mports_|**come and price e**|**lasticities of**|**import**|**demand**<br>_US services i_|_mports_||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|(10)|
||F-<br>Statistics<sup>1)</sup>|Lags<sup>2)</sup>|Durbin’s<br>test<sup>3)</sup>|Income<br>elasticities<sup>4)</sup>|Price<br>elasticities|F-<br>Statistics<sup>1)</sup>|Lags<sup>2)</sup>|Durbin’s<br>test<sup>3)</sup>|Income<br>elasticities<sup>4)</sup>|Price<br>Elasticities|
|Argentina|15.07|5|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.54|-0.5528<br>(0.109)|-0.1318*<br>(0.071)|4.80|6|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.73|2.2540**<br>(0.034)|-0.5155<br>(0.426)|
|Brazil|2.87|3|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.41|1.2441**<br>(0.018)|-0.0898<br>(0.255)|5.70|2|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.45|0.2577<br>(0.515)|-0.5986***<br>(0.006)|
|Canada|0.13|5|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.74|0.0488<br>(0.956)|-0.0569<br>(0.932)|9.44|6|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.21|7.5568***<br>(0.000)|3.2146***<br>(0.006)|
|China|4.19|4|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.20|8.6450***<br>(0.006)|1.8407***<br>(0.007)|8.39|1|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.72|6.0187***<br>(0.000)|0.2330<br>(0.534)|
|France|1.61|1|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.24|0.4724<br>(0.294)|-0.0615<br>(0.663)|3.29|5|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.14|5.4116**<br>(0.012)|1.0838<br>(0.132)|
|Germany|3.34|2|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.89|1.8615***<br>(0.007)|-0.0774<br>(0.617)|5.21|4|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.65|4.7037***<br>(0.003)|0.4846<br>(0.121)|
|Hong Kong|3.69|3|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.79|-2.7530**<br>(0.011)|0.3589<br>(0.544)|4.02|2|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.46|5.4964**<br>(0.012)|-1.9867*<br>(0.052)|
|India|11.96|6|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.48|<br>8.0550***<br>(0.000)|<br>0.9567*<br>(0.093)|1.94|2|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.53|<br>2.0745**<br>(0.039)|<br>-0.0496<br>(0.930)|
|Japan|2.07|4|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.30|-0.1623<br>(0.582)|0.2765<br>(0.188)|3.65|3|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.78|1.7411**<br>(0.011)|-0.0555<br>(0.658)|
|Korea, Rep. of|8.89|4|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.66|-0.1243<br>(0.759)|-0.2833<br>(0.247)|7.17|1|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.93|0.6843**<br>(0.037)|-0.2796<br>(0.143)|
|Mexico|0.91|1|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.16|0.2330<br>(0.277)|0.1021<br>(0.627)|5.32|4|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.93|0.7879***<br>(0.004)|-0.1401<br>(0.784)|
|Singapore|1.91|1|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.85|-0.1663<br>(0.444)|0.1832<br>(0.516)|3.57|3|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.25|1.9245**<br>(0.032)|0.0829<br>(0.838)|
|South Africa|2.16|1|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.94|<br>1.2101<br>(0.104)|<br>0.1832<br>(0.516)|3.26|1|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.53|<br>0.6918*<br>(0.094)|<br>-0.1552<br>(0.446)|
|Taiwan|2.69|6|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.59|0.7715*<br>(0.082)|-0.7135<br>(0.281)|4.14|1|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.51|2.3392***<br>(0.004)|0.2649<br>(0.356)|
|United Kingdom|4.53|2|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.73|<br>-0.1623<br>(0.655)|<br>0.5044**<br>(0.026)|1.36|4|Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.74|<br>0.5222<br>(0.405)|<br>0.3048<br>(0.477)|
|Venezuela|0.23|2||-0.1587|-0.0146|0.55|5||-1.1244|-0.0248|
||||Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.95|(0.766)|(0.948)|||Prob><sup>2</sup>=0.38|(0.514)|(0.960)|

Source: Own calculations. p*<0.1, p**<0.05, p***<0.001 (p-values in parentheses).

1) We consider the error correction model with an unrestricted intercept and no trend. At the 10% significance level the critical value bounds for the F-statistics are 3.17 and 4.14. F-statistics are based on the optimal lag structure. 2) The optimal lag structure is determined by Akaike’s Information Criterion for specifications with no autocorrelation.

3) We used Durbin's alternative test to test for serial correlation in the disturbance. This test does not require that all the regressors be strictly exogenous.

# **Appendix 6: Data Description and Sources**

For the regressions, we used quarterly data for 16 countries for the period Q1:1999-Q4:2008. US imports by country of origin are available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), US International Transactions Accounts Data (Release Date: March 18, 2009). We calculated real imports using the US consumer price index (CPI) as deflator (2000=100). We retrieved real GDP data from the BEA National Economic Accounts Data in order to match the income variable. As real exchange rates were not available, we corrected the bilateral nominal exchange rates for price differences using the foreign and US CPI as price deflators, i.e. _Er_  _En_  _PUS_ / _P j_  . CPI was used instead of PPI, as the latter was not available for all countries. Nominal exchange rates and CPIs were retrieved from the IMF International Financial Statistics database except for China and Taiwan (from EIU Country Data).

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