rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Political economy of policy reform
            in Turkey in the 1980s
Turkey's adjustment experience was
            a tremendous success in terms of structurally reorienting
            the economy. The share of output for export rose from 5
            percent in 1979 to 23 percent in 1989, and real output
            roughly doubled. The financial markets opened and have
            developed depth and sophistication. The program failed to
            reduce fiscal deficits, inflation, income inequality, and
            the size of the inefficient public enterprise sector, but
            the transformation of trade and finance fundamentally
            altered the context of the problems, changing their effects
            on the private sector and changing the government's
            options for dealing with them. The first phase of economic
            adjustment was sustained, although not initiated, in an
            authoritarian context, but the Turks restored democracy when
            the agenda for reform was incomplete. The Motherland Party
            (ANAP) won office on the platform of economic success and
            eventally lost partly because of the failure of economic
            policy. ANAP's electoral defeat in 1991 did not mean,
            however, the demise of the pro-structural adjustment or the
            pro-liberalization coalitions. The long period of ANAP rule
            helped consolidate reforms to such a degree that all of the
            principal parties agreed on a broadly similar economic
            program. The ideological differences between the left and
            the right - a state-directed versus a marked-oriented
            economy - substantially diminished. The reforms of the early
            1980s greatly reduced the importance of rent-seeking,
            particularly through foreign trade, but patronage politics
            became widespread again in the second half of the decade.
            The initial strength ANAP derived from privileged access to
            state resources progressively became a disadvantage,
            creating resentment and reaction among the populace. One
            source of discontent was the over-invoicing of exports (that
            is, fictitious exports), designed to take advantage of
            favorable export subsidies, and the government's
            failure to discipline or penalize the companies involved.
            This jeopardized attempts to build a pro-export coalition,
            and some key features of import substitution continued. The
            authors attribute the failure of Turkey's macroeconomic
            policies in the late 1980s to the government's failure
            to cultivate popular support for macroeconomic stability; to
            the top bureaucrats' lack of autonomy to counteract
            political pressures to expand the fiscal deficit; and to the
            continuation of top-down individualistic linkages between
            policymakers and key economic interests.
Latin America and the Caribbean
            region (and Northern America) population projections :
            1992-93 edition
Population projections for all countries
            are prepared annually by the World Bank's Population
            and Human Resources Department. They are published first in
            summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and
            later in greater detail as technical notes or working
            papers, and in alternate years, as a book. Separate papers
            cover the six Bank regions: (1) Africa (sub-Saharan); (2)
            Latin America and the Caribbean (and Northern America); (3)
            East Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region combined;
            and (4) Europe and Central Asia region and Middle East and
            North Africa region combined. Among trends observed: all of
            the Bank's regions have positive population growth
            rates, but a few countries are losing people. These
            countries are in one of two regions: in Latin America and
            the Caribbean, where several small island countries
            (Dominica, Grenada, and St. Kitts and Nevis) have recently
            had negative growth rates, and in Europe (Bulgaria, Hungary,
            and Ireland). In the case of the Caribbean islands, the
            cause of population decline is outmigration, whereas in
            Eastern Europe it results from a combination of
            below-replacement fertility and outmigration. On the
            American continent, fertility in all countries has dropped
            to below 6 children per woman, but some countries have gone
            much further than others. The total fertility rate for Latin
            America is intermediate at 3.1, and replacement fertility is
            projected to be reached in every country no later than 2035.
            In Northern America, fertility is at 2 children per woman -
            that is, just below replacement level. At the regional
            level, international net migration has a trivial effect on
            population growth. The most significant flow in the world
            occurs between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern
            America, which amounts to just over one-half million persons
            per year. Migration often occurs for unpredictable reasons,
            and is often reversed in a short time. The projections of
            future net migration assume a gradual decline to zero from
            current levels.
Deriving developing country
            repayment capacity from the market prices of sovereign debt
The market prices of developing
            countries' debts are imperfect indicators of the
            countries' payment capacity for three reasons: the
            concave shape of the debt's payoff structure, the
            presence of third-party guarantees, and the differences in
            the terms of various debt claims. Claessens and Pennacchi
            derive an improved indicator of payment capacity by
            developing a pricing model - using option valuation
            techniques - that takes these three factors into account.
            Applying the model to bonds issued recently by Mexico and
            Venezuela, they find that the estimated indicator of payment
            capacity often behaves differently from the raw bond prices
            themselves, confirming the importance of cleaning the raw
            prices for these three factors. In order of importance, the
            benefits of cleaning raw prices come first from correcting
            for the effects of different terms (such as fixed versus
            floating interest rates), followed by the value of
            third-party enhancements and then by the concavity of the
            payoff structure. They find some evidence that the new
            indicator of repayment capacity conforms better than the raw
            prices themselves to generally held beliefs about which
            variables drive a country's repayment capacity. In
            particular, they find that variables that are often assumed
            to be related to payment capacity - such as oil prices and
            the countries' stock market prices - are more closely
            (and with the right sign) associated with the new estimated
            measure of payment capacity than are the secondary market
            prices of the bonds.
Stopping three big inflations
            (Argentina, Brazil, and Peru)
Much existing literature fails to
            recognize that high inflation (annual rates in three digits)
            is a distinctly different phenomenon from moderate inflation
            and hyperinflation. The failure to understand the specific
            features of the inflation process in the chronic high
            inflation economies has many times led to a wrong diagnosis
            of the underlying reasons for changes in inflation in those
            economies, and the policies needed to stabilize prices in
            those countries. This lack of understanding extends to the
            interpretations of the recent hyperinflation in some
            economies. Argentina, Brazil, and Peru in the 1980s were
            certainly high-inflation countries. The recent episodes of
            hyperinflation in these countries were not isolated -
            instead, they were the culmination of an unstable process,
            in which inflation crept up gradually for many years before
            accelerating explosively. These episodes were important
            because they helped to dispel the myth that it is possible
            to maintain a stable high rate of inflation on a long-term
            basis without harmful effects on growth. The causes of the
            new hyperinflations were not as clear as in the classical
            episodes, as they originated from a combination of fiscal
            and nonfiscal factors. The chronic fiscal imbalances
            eventually became an insurmountable obstacle, and inflation
            moved away from the fragile high inflation equilibrium into
            hyperinflation. The interesting feature of the new episodes
            (especially in Argentina and Brazil) is that they were not
            triggered by a large increase in the budget deficit;
            instead, because the initial equilibrium was so fragile,
            inflation was in the end destabilized by financial shocks.
            One important lesson of the new hyperinflations is that the
            process of restoring price stability has been longer and
            more costly than in the classical cases. The main reasons
            for this has been that it was not clear in the minds of the
            public where inflation would settle once hyperinflation was
            stopped. In the classic hyperinflations of Europe in the
            1920s, expectations were that inflation would return to the
            low levels that had prevailed before. In the new episodes,
            there is no compelling reason for agents to expect that the
            economy would go back to low inflation. Experience showed
            that inflationary expectations initially settled near the
            level where inflation was prior to hyperinflation. As a
            result, the disinflation process must continue once
            hyperinflation is stopped.
How minilateral trading agreements
            may affect the post-Uruguay Round world
One issue dominating recent discussions
            on free trade areas and other minilateral associations
            (preferential trade arrangements) is whether such
            arrangements will detract from further multilateral trade
            liberalization on a most-favored-nation basis. But for much
            of this debate empirical information has been lacking on:
            the global importance of minilateral arrangements that have
            been, or are being, concluded; the relative size of other
            major bilateral trade flows not affected by minilateral
            arrangements, and their suitability for such arrangements;
            the global importance of Europe in this process; the
            possibility that other sorts of arrangements - such as
            managed trade initiatives (arrangements specifying
            quantitative trade targets) - are a more likely threat as
            far as trade flows not presently covered by free trade area
            arrangements are concerned. The authors argue that this lack
            of relevant data has led to several misconceptions about the
            movement toward minilateralism. In particular, their
            statistics suggest that fears about how the further spread
            of free trade areas will affect world trade volumes may be
            exaggerated - while the dangers of these blocks becoming
            hostile to each other may have been underestimated. Using
            data recently compiled by the United Nations, the authors
            show that the global importance of minilateral arrangements
            is now far greater than is often recognized. Almost half of
            world trade is affected by these arrangements. But major
            trade flows not covered by minilateral arrangements are
            dominated by important country-specific problems. In
            particular, problems relating to high-technology trade
            between Asian newly industrialized countries (NICs), Japan,
            and the United States, as well as between Asian NICs, Japan,
            and Western Europe, are sufficiently important to hinder the
            formation of additional free trade areas. This suggests that
            fears about the spread of such arrangements may have been
            exaggerated. The authors' tabulations and analysis of
            the discriminatory trade barriers applied to these flows
            indicate that managed trade is a far more likely outcome.
How macroeconomic policies affect
            project performance in the social sectors
The main objective of this study is to
            explore the realationship between a country's overall
            economic policy environment and the performance of
            investment projects in the social sectors. The authors focus
            on the impact of economy-wide policies including a range of
            fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, trade, and pricing
            indicators. Particular emphasis is put on the analysis of
            projects in education, which comprise the large majority of
            the Bank's social projects. The methodology combines
            statistical analysis and case studies, with the latter based
            on a broad range of sectoral reports, Project Completion
            Reports, Project Performance Audit Reports, and
            sustainability analysis conducted by the Operation
            Evaluation Department (OED) of the World Bank. The
            statistical analysis draws on the OED project data as well
            as the country-level policy performance variables of the
            World Development Report 1991 data set. The paper also
            briefly reviews the literature, and examines some country
            and project case studies which begin to suggest the
            relationship between economy-wide policies and project
            performance. It presents a simple analytical framework of
            the possible linkages between the economic policy
            environment and project performance. It discusses the data
            and empirical method and presents the results from
            statistical analysis.
Participatory development : myths
            and dilemmas
The recent evolution of development
            thinking has highlighted popular involvement in decision
            making. Yet policy gridlock and stop-and-go implementation
            have been associated with excessive responsiveness to
            interest groups. This paper aims to pull together seemingly
            disparate strands of development thinking and experience.
            After debunking some popular myths, the development
            antecedents of participation are identified and a definition
            of participation is offered. Next, a stylized theory is
            presented at the micro level. Some implications are then
            drawn for organizational design and for development policy
            planning. The focus on participatory development signifies
            an opening of development economics to disciplines other
            than macroeconomics. In particular, microeconomics and
            business administration must join forces under the umbrella
            of institutional economics, political economists, and
            development practice should be shaped by all the social
            science disciplines.
Measuring the risk of default in six
            highly indebted countries
The price of debt on the secondary
            market reflects the risk that the debtor country might
            default on its external debt. Using the option-pricing
            theory, the authors identify the factors that influenced the
            risk of default in six highly indebted countries (Argentina,
            Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Venezuela, and Poland) from 1986 to
            1990. In particular, they provide a measure of the debtor
            countries' willingness to pay. They identify the
            parameters of the stochastic process followed by this
            variable, so this approach can be used to predict the future
            price of debt. Their model also emphasizes that a
            debt-reduction operation may lead to a significant increase
            in the price of debt on the secondary market. This effect
            appears to be linked to the initial stock of external debt,
            as suggested by the debt overhang hypothesis. Finally, the
            authors show empirically that a country's willingness
            to pay is significantly influenced by changes in indicators
            of the country's ability to pay (for example, by an
            increase in reserves or in GDP growth), and by exogenous
            events such as the increase in commercial banks' loan
            reserves in mid-1987 or the Brady Plan announcement in 1989.
Tax incentives, market power, and
            corporate investment : a rational expectations model applied
            to Pakistani and Turkish industries
The objective of this paper is to
            examine the effect of tax incentives on investment in
            physical capital and in research and development, and
            indirectly on output and the demand for labor and materials.
            For this purpose the authors calculate the effect of tax
            incentives on the rental prices of the services of physical
            and knowledge capital, and of these rental prices on both
            types of investment.  The paper outlines the structure of
            corporate taxation and of investment incentives in Pakistan
            and Turkey.  It presents the theoretical model, with the
            details of derivations given in appendices 1 to 3. Appendix
            4 presents the formulae for the elasticities which were
            computed; appendix 5 discusses the method of estimation and
            the non-nested hypothesis tests; while appendix 6 gives the
            sources for the data and outlines how the variables were
            constructed from the raw data.  Finally, the paper
            summarizes the empirical results and comments are given on
            the policy implications of these results.
Efficient debt reduction
It is now widely acknowledged that under
            certain circumstances debt reduction can improve the welfare
            of both creditors and debtors. Meaningful debt reduction
            requires an appropriate institutional setting to overcome
            collective action problems. In the domestic economy,
            bankruptcy laws provide the framework for organizing the
            collective interests of the creditors when a debtor is
            distressed. No such institutional framework exists in the
            international setting. This paper recommends "concerted
            debt restructuring," based on below market interest
            rates, rather than "voluntary" debt reduction.
            With concerted relief, all banks would participate jointly
            on a fairly equal basis. The existing debt would be
            rescheduled, with the rates based on various indicators of
            ability to pay. The interest payments could be made more
            secure by various forms of credit enhancement. This kind of
            interest rate reduction could be easily managed in the
            context of an international debt facility. Whatever the
            approch, meaningful debt reduction will require the active
            participation of the international community.
Taxes, outward orientation, and
            growth performance in Korea
This paper uses an applied general
            equilibrium model to investigate the contribution of outward
            oriented policies to the earlier years of Korean growth,
            through induced intersectoral resource transfers and impacts
            on effort and labor supply in agriculture and manufacturing
            sectors. What seems to emerge from the model calculations is
            that one should look beyond tax policy for the main factors
            underlying strong Korean growth. Model calculations portray
            the tax component of outward oriented policies as accounting
            for 6.2 to 7.9 percent of Korean growth between 1962 and
            1982, and only 6.7 percent between 1962 and 1972. This paper
            also emphasizes how, in Korea's extraordinary growth
            performance since the early 1960s, tax policy has been used
            in several different ways to meet economic objectives of the time.
The Bretton Woods agencies and
            sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s : facing the tough questions
Both the International Monetary Fund
            (IMF) and the World Bank recognize that sub - Saharan Africa
            (SSA) represents a difficult and complex development
            challenge. The author proposes that the Bank and the IMF
            take four institutional steps to deal effectively with the
            region's problems in the near term. First, the agencies
            should reconsider their planned net capital contribution to
            help overcome the region's severe foreign exchange
            constraints. Secondly, the Brady proposals represented a
            major conceptual step forward toward alleviating the private
            debt overhang that seriously burdens at least a dozen
            countries in the region. Additional efforts to reduce the
            private debts of the low-income countries will be needed to
            achieve the objectives of the proposals. Thirdly, the
            Bank's analysis of the problems facing the region
            argues for a faster and more comprehensive reform program.
            In the 1990s the Bretton Woods agencies will face increasing
            pressures to give more weight to issues of social equity and
            political variables. Lastly, the Bank and Fund will have to
            improve their ability to work together to maximize their
            effectiveness. The Bank and Fund should collaborate in
            long-term planning for SSA. Policy Framework Papers should
            go beyond the current three year horizon and plan some
            issues for five to ten years. The Bank should also take the
            lead in organizing external assistance efforts and policy
            reform programs.