rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
peers with social capital, controlling for other characteristics. However, it is interesting to note that there is no measurable poverty reducing effect of social capital in urban areas in Haiti.

Education is the strongest poverty reduction correlate in Haiti. All levels of education from primary to tertiary are strongly statistically significant and negatively associated with the probability of being poor (Table 8.1 and Figure 8.1). The more education attained, the less likely it is that the household head falls below the poverty line of US$1 a day in 2001. The impact of having completed primary education on the likelihood of being poor is relatively low. For high-school graduates, the estimated impact is 30 percent larger than that of primary education.

Furthermore, completed tertiary education reduces poverty even more than completed secondary education. For university graduates, the likelihood of falling below the poverty line is less than a third of their peers that only completed primary education. Moreover, it is interesting to note that the likelihood of falling below the poverty line is higher for primary school graduates in rural areas than in other areas in Haiti, indicating that primary school educated individuals are a less scarce resource in rural Haiti than elsewhere, and they therefore receive a negative income premium. Another explanation could be that the quality of primary education may not be as high in rural areas as in urban or metropolitan areas in Haiti. There is no measurable difference in the likelihood of being poor between rural and urban populations for household heads who have completed secondary or tertiary education.

Figure <u>8.1: Marginal Impact of Attained Education on Poverty in Haiti 2001</u> <!-- Start of picture text --> Tertiary<br>Secondary<br>Rural<br>Primary Urban<br>0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6<br>Own calculations based on EVCH 2001.<br><!-- End of picture text --> As the age of household heads increases, the probability of falling into extreme poverty decreases slightly. The older the head of the household, the slightly lower is the probability that the household will be poor (Table 8.1). In rural areas the impact on the probability of being poor is not significantly different statistically from that of urban areas, namely 0.5 percent for every additionally year.

47
# **Abbreviations**

|BRICS|Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa|
|---|---|
|CIS|Commonwealth of Independent States|
|EACU|Eurasian Customs Union|
|ECU|Eurasian Customs Union|
|EU|European Union|
|FDI|Foreign Direct Investment|
|GRP|Gross Regional Product|
|GTIS|Global Trade Information Services|
|HHI|Herfindahl-Hirschman Index|
|nec|Not elsewhere categorized|
|OJSC|Open Join Stock Company|
|OECD|Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development|
|LLC|Limited Liability Company|
|RCA|Revealed Comparative Advantage|
|SITC|Standard International Trade Categories|
|UNCTAD|United Nations Conference on Trade and Development|
|WDI|World Development Indicators|

_All monetary amounts are US$ unless otherwise indicated_ .

2
In Pakistan, for instance, the World Bank played a key role in establishing a US$520 million Private Sector Energy Development Fund (the "PSEDF"), which is intended to make long term loans to finance up to 30% of the cost of qualifying projects, including BOT projects, in the energy sector. In the Philippines, an energy sector loan from the World Bank is intended to be used by the Philippines government and its government agencies in part to fund investments or standby facilities for BOT projects.

Another way in which the Worli Bank helps its member countries carry out BOT projects is by conducting sector studies. These studies have been done for the power sector in Turkey, Pakistan and the Philippines. They have helped to identify the need for and to determine the feasibility of BOT power plant projects in these countries.

In addition, the World Bank is currently studying various measures under the general heading of "Expanded Cofinancing Operations" which might be used to facilitate BOT projects. These measures include providing World Bank guarantees for commercial bank loans and local bond issues.

9.2 IFC Involvement. Although IFC has apparently considered participating in a number of BOT projects, as of early October 1989 it had still not committed to any. IFC can support BOT projects at three different levels. It can invest equity, provide direct loans and underwrite or syndicate commercial bank loans. It cai. also perform studies for host governments on the need for various projects. Finally, it can act as a paid financ. l adviser to host governments. Some of the projects which IFC has reportedly been considering are referred to in Annex 2.

- 46 -
confiscation of private assets by the government.

The data available for the "emerging stock markets" in LDC's indicates that the variance of returns to their stock market indexes is much higher than the variance of returns to the Standard & Poors 500 Index. But since average returns in LCD's have also been generally higher thanaverage returns to the S&P 500, nothing can be concluded from this observation unless we have a model that allows us to price risk.22 If we use the variance of real GDP to measure the risk associated with investment, we conclude that this risk is higher In LDC's: in the Summers and Heston (1988) data set the variance of real GDP for the 1/3 poorest countries Is twice the variance of the 1/3 richest countries (.0033 versus .0016) (see Renelt (1991)).

It Is worthwhile noting that the presence of political risk cannot eliminate the growth equalization result because the flows of capital that are being discussed go from LDC's to developed countries, not the other way arounc.

Theoretically the influence of uncertainty on growth Is ambiguous. As Is clear from Levhari and Srinivasan's (1969) classical paper on savings under uncertainty, whether a mean preserving spread Increases or decreases the rate of growth depends on whether a is greater or smaller than one. Assuming that log(lrt) is i.i.d. and follows a normal distribution with mean g and variance v<sup>2</sup> , the growth rate X -e linear economy discussed in section II.1 is: 2The data collected by the International Finance Corporation (1990) shows that during the period 1984-89 the standard deviation of returns to the S&P 500 was 5. 12X, while the standard deviation associated with the returns to a composite index of stock in developing countries was 7.06X The variance of returns for every single country included in the index was higher than that of the S&P 500.

27
10 Two other poLnts ct importance are evident from Table 2. First, the tradewei.ghted price rp.atives are z_rslstently lower than the simple averages (see *lbo Table 3) w'.ch Lp' es Madagascar pays lower relatLve prices on larger purchases. Sin-e Yeats ( 9-Cb) and Hufbauer and O'Neill (9'372) report similar findings it suggests prccedures such as bulking domestic orders, or making joint purchases with other countries may result in lower **prices. Second, the average** price relatives are almost always higher when industrial countries **are the** comparator group--a po;nt that indicates developing countries typically pay higher prices for similar products (see Yeats (1990b, Table 4 on page 10 for related findings). (This is not so often the case for Japan as for the European countries.) Table 3 is addressed to the key question of this investigation--does the evidence suggest that presh.pment inspection improved (lowered) Madagascar's relative import prLces.12 Specifically, the table shows Madagascar's average (weighted and unweLghted) price relatives before and after PSI was adopted. In the 1984-88 period (when PSI was required), Madagascar's (trade-weighted) import prices averaged 43 percent more than those of industrial countries (unweighted average prices were about 77 percent higher) and were about one-third higher than other developing countries. Although these averages are down somewhat from the pre-PSI period, the differences are not statistically significant at the 95

> 12 It should again be stressed that the present tests only relate to the impact of PSI on import prices--they do not show how well (or poorly) PSI fulfills other objectives such as speeding goods through customs, insuring that goods meet contractual standards, improving customs' revenue collection, or ensuring that quantities shipped are correct, etc. It would be difficult to undertake such evaluations using United Nations trade data, rather an **on-site** assessment of PSI is required.
# Appendix A: Mangrove tree geometry

## A.1. Methodology for estimating tree area from images

Predicting wave attenuation by mangroves requires describing the frontal tree area, including roots, trunk, and canopy. A literature study (Section 2) provided information about the trunk and roots of mangrove trees, but no information was found for the canopy. The canopy area of _S. apetala_ trees is thus obtained by digitizing images collected by Rosanna van Hespen in China. The images are scaled assuming a pneumatophore height of 15 cm, based on personal communication with Rosanna. The contour of the trunk and branches is digitized in Photoshop and read as a binary image in MATLAB. Over the height of the tree, the number of pixels corresponding with the tree area are summed to obtain the vertical distribution of the exposed surface. The total tree area is divided by the tree height to calculate an equivalent tree width , which is normalized using the B of the tree ( B ). For a given tree age, the height and vv B are obtained from a fit to the data of _S._ bb dd _apetala_ trees from Bangladesh shown in Figure 2.2. The equivalent tree width is obtained by vv bb /dd dd multiplying the normalized value by the B . vv A.2. Results of tree area bb dd The images provided by Rosanna van Hespen (Figure A1 and Figure A2) were taken from different perspectives and lighting, which hindered programming algorithms to detect the tree canopy area. Overexposure and shadowing resulted in branches and leaves being partly colored and partly black and white, which made it difficult to define color thresholds for the different tree parts. Moreover, due to low resolution in some images, the smallest branches (with diameters approximately below 1 cm) cannot always be distinguished in the pictures. The analysis thus focuses on the image with the best resolution and color homogeneity (Figure A1), and the results are compared with a second specimen photographed with less quality (Figure A2).

36
the risk before completion. The ATTs we estimate are 4 percentage points for events and 10 percentage points for fatalities, and both are statistically significant. We conclude from this and the earlier results that violence is reduced by about 5 to 10 percentage points with the completion of a project.

The dynamics of the effect are extremely interesting. Violence drops fast after completion and finds its minimum in the year after completion. It then rebounds, and the point estimate is close to 0 three years after completion. This suggests that road rehabilitation does not have a lasting effect on violence in our sample but only reduce violence for a few years. This effect is very closely aligned with the decay factor we estimated from the remote sensing which reinforces the idea that road degradation might indeed significantly enable violence.

Figure 12: Roads and Events: PreMDiD <!-- Start of picture text -->
-2 -1 0 1 2 3<br>Periods to Treatment<br>Pre-treatment Post-treatment<br>.1<br>.05<br>0<br>-.05<br>events (in logs) compared to baseline<br>-.1<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Notes** : Figure shows the effect of road completion at year 0 compared to a control group that is matched by violence prediction in year -1.

Figure 13: Roads and Fatalities: PreMDiD <!-- Start of picture text -->
-2 -1 0 1 2 3<br>Periods to Treatment<br>Pre-treatment Post-treatment<br>.2<br>.1<br>0<br>-.1<br>fatalities (in logs) compared to baseline -.2<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Notes** : Figure shows the effect of road completion at year 0 compared to a control group that is matched by violence prediction in year -1.

23
**Table 3.2 Fiscal cost of the banking problems 1991-98**

||**1991**|**1992**|**1993**|**1994**|**1995**|**1996**|**1997**|**1998**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Bank Consolidation Bonds<br>(changes<br>in stock) (HUF, bn)|0.0|0.0|285.6|47.0|6.0|9.0|-85.9|182.0|
|Guarantees issued<br>(HUF, bn)|10.4|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|16.5|27.8|44.0|
|Amortized<br>Bank Consolidation<br>Bonds<br>(HUF<br>bn)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|85.9|0.0|
|Interest<br>Paid<br>on Bank<br>Consolidation<br>Bonds<br>(HUF<br>bn)|0.0|0.0|0.0|_54.5_|96.6|102.7|86.5|_50.5_|
|Guarantees called<br>(HUF,<br>bn)|0.0|2.3|0.4|0.0|6.8<br>__|2.9<br>_|11.8<br>_|6.2|
|Guarantees recovered<br>(HUF,<br>bn)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.2|0.1|0.0|1.1|
|Total direct fiscal cost<br>(HUF<br>bn)|0.0|2.3|0.4|_54.5_|103.6|105.7|184.2|57.8|
|**Total direct fiscal cost**<br>**%of GDP**|**0.00**|**0.08**|**0.01**|**1.25**|**1.85**|**1.53**|**2.16**|**0.60**<br>_|

Source: The Ministry of Finance, Debt Management Agency Note: The bank consolidation cost was largely financed by new debt issues not through the budget and thus did not affect the deficit figures. Total fiscal cost is calculated as the cost of the bank consolidation program (amortized bonds + interest payments) plus the amount of guarantees called minus guarantees recovered.

The 1993 bank consolidation expenditure of over 8 percent of GDP partly also includes debtor (enterprise) consolidation.

# **Postabank**

Privatization has been the most effective bulwark against the fiscal risk of bank failure. Nevertheless, to the extent that privatization has not been completed, the government still is burdened by the need to assist troubled institutions. Postabank offers the best contrast between containment of risk through privatization and risk through state control (not necessarily ownership).

This bank was established in 1990 with capital contributed by the State Property Agency. Unlike the other large banks, Postabank has not been majority state-owned in the strict sense nor has it has been completely privatized"<sup>1</sup> . The state's share in Postabank was relatively small, only 16 percent, although large shareholders have included, quasi state agencies such as the state-owned Hungarian Post and the public Health and Pension Funds. Postabank has been controlled by the state indirectly, via government influence on the bank management. The main explanation offered by MOF officials for controlling it is that Postabank has had a large retail base. Apparently, the government has not wanted to control of this institution transferred to foreign hands.

The average state ownership was of more than 70 percent for the five other large banks.

18
The estimates of �� correspond to the linear projection on household income or consumption on household characteristics aggregated at the year of birth level for survey round ��1,2.

# **3. Data**

This section of the paper discusses the characteristics of the main source of information used to construct the synthetic panel for Colombia during the 2008-2016 period — the _Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares_ (GEIH) — and is divided in three subsections. The first part shows the main characteristics of the GEIH, the cross-sectional national household survey that provides the data to build each wave of the synthetic panel. After analyzing the main characteristics of the population in Colombia during the period 2008-2016, the second part describes the relevant sample: all households included in the surveys from 2008 to 2016 whose heads where born between 1948 and 1973. The rationality behind this selection is that household heads in this cohort who were interviewed in 2008 (the earlier wave of the GEIH analyzed) are expected to have completed their education—at least 25 years old—and still be part of the labor force— younger than 60 years. As mentioned on Lucchetti (2017), the selection of these household heads also avoids life cycle events that may invalidate the time-invariant assumption. Once this cohort is fixed, the methodology suggests following the same cohort of individuals across time. This section ends with a discussion on the selection of the optimal window of analysis to build the synthetic panel, or the distance in years between two cross-sections of the survey. This paper argues that such window for Colombia should not be longer than two years, since for longer gaps it is likely that the characteristics of the households would change significantly, thus violating the assumption of time invariability of the characteristics associated with the income generation function.

# **3.1. Main source of information: The GEIH**

The GEIH is a nationally representative survey administered by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE,<sup>8</sup> for its acronym in Spanish) that captures information on the employment conditions of individuals and is the main source of information to estimate monetary poverty in Colombia. Currently, the GEIH interviews approximately 240,000 households every year, being the largest survey at the national level in Colombia. In addition to the general characteristics of the population such as gender, age, marital status and educational level, the GEIH asks about different sources of income. The survey classifies the workforce in one of three groups: occupied, unemployed or inactive. Using the information in the GEIH it is possible to estimate the main indicators of the Colombian labor market, such as the global participation rate, the occupancy rate, and the unemployment rate.

> 8 _Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas—_ DANE.

8
5% decrease in median precipitation in the winter months (December-February), a 9-15% increase March-November, and an 11% increase on an annual basis over the end of the century (Christensen et al., 2007). Over the Tibetan Plateau, a 10% median precipitation increase is simulated on annual basis, 19% in winter, and 4-10% increase in other seasons (Christensen et al., 2007).

Precipitation projection maps from the PRECIS regional simulation study (Rupa Kumar et al., 2006) reveal that western Nepal, Uttarakhand, Himachal, and Bhutan will receive higher monsoon precipitation in 2071-2100 compared to base precipitation. In contrast, the scenarios indicate 0-5% reduction in monsoon precipitation in northern Nepal and 0-15% reduction in some parts of the Chinese Himalayas north of Nepal. Moderate increases are simulated in the rest of the Himalayas. Seasonal precipitation scenarios show variations in winter precipitation with reduced precipitation in lowland and hill areas of the Nepalese and Indian Himalayas, increased precipitation in the region’s high mountainous belt, and generally very large increase over the Tibetan Plateau. Pre-monsoon precipitation is projected to increase significantly in lowland regions, and moderately in most of the region. Post-monsoon precipitation is also projected to increase with Bhutan, Sikkim, central and eastern Nepal, and adjoining areas in China seeing the largest increase. Similarly, results from Shi et al. (2011)’s RegCM3model results using the SRES A1B scenario over the Yarlung Zangbo-Bramhaputra River Basin for 1948-2000 and 2001-2100 suggest a nominal increase of 0.8% and 1% but a substantial decrease of -27.6%, respectively on regional mean change in annual, summer, and winter precipitation.

Another study in Nepal (APN, 2005) uses an ensemble of 13-GCM projections and also shows the country is expected to be wetter annually (6.22±6.56%) and in monsoon (14.98±9.74%), but drier in winter (-17.58±2.53%) by 2080. Other projections available for the region (Agrawala et al., 2003 for Nepal; Gao et al., 2008, 2011 for Tibetan Plateau; MoPE, 2004 for Nepal; Krishna Kumar et al., 2004, Rajendran and Kitoh, 2008, and Moors et al., 2011 for India; Tse-ring et al., 2010 for Bhutan, among others) generally agree with increased annual or seasonal temperature and annual precipitation, but vary for seasonal precipitation projections.

Very recently, Revadekar et al. (2011) produced future projections of precipitation extremes over the region using PRECIS and standardized indices. Their analysis also showed an increase in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st century consistent with other studies (Revadekar et al., 2011). In general, extreme precipitation was projected to increase substantially 12
# Table 1.7.

.

Turkey: Unemployment* by Urban and Rural Areas and Completed Education (Labor Force Suneys, 1985, Age 12 and above, Oct.-Nov.,

# Unpaid Family Members Not Included)

|||Turkey|||Urban|||Rural**||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Unemploym.<br>rate<br>percent|percent<br>of<br>unempl.|percent<br>of<br>lab.force|unemploym<br>rate<br>percent|. percen<br>of<br>unempl|t percent<br>of<br>. lab.forc|<sup>unemploym</sup><br>rate<br>e percent|<sup>. percent</sup><br>of<br>unempl.|<br>percent<br>of<br>lab.force|
||_ (1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|
|'No formal educat|ion 16.6|14.5|15.4|21.6|13.2|9.8|13.5|16.0|23.A|
|Primary|17.0|52.7|54.6|14.8|45.7|49.7|19.6|60.5|61.4|
|High School|25.6|24.4|16.8|21.4|28.6|21.6|_38.1_|19.6|10.2<br>N«|
|Vocational|16.0|_5.7_|6.4|14.8|7.9|8.6|20.4|3.3|3.2|
|University, etc<br>.~|7.0<br>~-|2.7|6.8|7.1<br>.|4.6|10.3|6.2|0.6|1.9|
|Total|17.7|100|100|16.1|100|100|19.8|100|100|

* Both unemployed and economically active population (labor force) including inactive unemployed, unemployed not seeking employment, and seasonal workers not seeking job.

** Computed as difference between national LFS 1985 and urban places LFS 1985. Rural areas thus implicitly defined as all places outside cities with 10,000 inhabitants and more.

Source: Statistical Yearbook of Turkey, 1987, Tables 137 and 146 ith 138 and 145.
**The implementation of sound repo frameworks in MENA countries should have a catalytic effect in buttressing other reforms, both structural and operational.** Sound repo frameworks include legal agreement, clear tax and accounting rules, and settlement infrastructure. On the one hand, at early stages of secondary market development repos can support liquidity and maturity transformation even in illiquid markets. In these cases, as a second best, repo collateral may be valued at high discounts when market prices are scarce.  And on the other hand, efficiency in the repo market would be substantially improved by policies to build liquid benchmarks and by enhancing secondary market transparency so that reliable prices are available to value the collateral. In addition, upgrades in the settlement infrastructure to register and settle repos would improve efficiency in secondary market transactions.

**Table 3: Operational aspects of money markets**

||**Egypt**|**Morocco**|**Tunisia**|**Jordan**|**Lebanon**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Central**<br>**Bank**<br>**instruments**|• Reserve<br>requirements<br>• Interest rate<br>corridor and<br>overnight<br>standing<br>facilities<br>• 7 day deposit<br>auctions<sup>24</sup>|• Reserve<br>requirements<br>• Interest rate<br>corridor and<br>overnight<br>standing<br>facilities<br>• 7 day deposit<br>and injection<br>auctions|• Reserve<br>requirements<br>• Standing<br>lending<br>facility (1-7<br>days)<br>• 7 day deposit<br>and injection<br>auctions|• Reserve<br>requirements<br>• Interest rate<br>corridor and<br>overnight<br>standing<br>facilities<sup>25</sup>|• Reserve<br>requirements<br>• Outright sales<br>of Government<br>3-year Bonds<sup>26</sup>|
|**Instruments**<br>**traded between**<br>**banks**|• Unsecured<br>interbank<br>loans<br>• T-bills<br>• Informal<br>repos|• Unsecured<br>interbank loans<br>• Repos|• Unsecured<br>interbank<br>loans<br>• Informal<br>repos (_ventes_<br>_à rémérés)_|• Unsecured<br>interbank<br>loans|• Unsecured<br>interbank loans|
|**Payment**<br>**infrastructure**|RTGS|RTGS|RTGS|RTGS|Clearing house<br>for checks<br>(RTGS project<br>at initial stage)|

- 24 CBE negotiable bills discontinued in 2007

> 25 CBJ negotiable bills discontinued in October 2008

> 26 BdL 5-year negotiable CDs discontinued in July 2009

19