ECOWAS‘S INFRASTRUCTURE: A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE Under trade stagnation, seven WAPP countries (The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo) would need to spend more than 5 percent of their GDP for a decade to meet the region‘s power sector needs, which is an extremely tall order. And, in the most extreme case, Liberia would need to spend almost 30 percent of its GDP to satisfy power demand.

**Table 3.4  Additional infrastructure requirements for trade expansion (MW)**

|**for trade expa**|**nsion (MW)**<br>**Cross-border**<br>**interconnectors**<br>**Additional**<br>**hydropower**|
|---|---|
|Benin|160<br>0|
|BurkinaFaso|0<br>0|
|Côte d‘Ivoire|2,226<br>0|
|Gambia|19<br>0|
|Ghana|979<br>0|
|Guinea|2,283<br>3,711|
|GuineaBissau|818<br>0|
|Liberia|258<br>0|
|Mali|2,703<br>0|
|Mauritania|79<br>0|
|Niger|206<br>0|
|Nigeria|366<br>0|
|Senegal|487<br>29|
|SierraLeone|661<br>0|
|Togo|5<br>18|
|Total|11,250<br>3,758|
|Source: Derived f|rom Rosnes and Vennemo 2009.|

Under trade expansion, the pattern of spending shifts markedly. Most countries would spend substantially less to meet their power sector needs than under trade stagnation. Only three countries would need to spend significantly more than 5 percent of GDP (The Gambia, Guinea, and Senegal). However, the expenditure burden for Guinea would rise dramatically from around 4 percent of GDP under trade stagnation to more than 20 percent of GDP under trade expansion. This reflects the important role that Guinea would assume as an exporter of hydropower for the region.

In 2005, power trade flows in the WAPP were <mark>Total 11,250</mark> limited to 5.3 terawatt-hours in total—about 17 percent Source: Derived from Rosnes and Vennemo 2009. of demand. Although WAPP is the second most active regional power pool in Africa after SAPP, the volumes of power involved are relatively small. The main flows involve imports by Benin, Togo, and Burkina Faso of power from Côte d‘Ivoire and Ghana, while Niger buys from Nigeria (figure 3.3a).

Under trade stagnation, future trade volumes would increase to 15.5 terawatt-hours per year up to 2015, and the pattern of trade would shift somewhat. If future trade is constrained by existing crossborder transmission capacity, the overall volume rises only marginally to 10.2 terawatt hours per year. The most notable change would be the fact that Ghana could switch from being a net exporter to a net importer, leaving Côte d ̳Ivoire as the main power exporter in the region (figures 3.3b, 3.4b).

Under trade expansion, the volume of power traded within WAPP could increase substantially to 101 terawatt-hours by 2015. The key change under trade expansion is that Guinea would fully develop its hydropower potential and become the major power exporter of the region, sending 17 terawatt-hours annually into neighboring countries and exporting more than five times its domestic consumption (figures 3.3b, 3.4a). As a result, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, which currently do not import any power, would become significant importers. Mali‘s imports would also expand considerably. The role of Côte d‘Ivoire as a regional power exporter would be substantially reduced, and Ghana would become even more reliant on power imports.

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