_Sources_ : Original estimation based on updated educational attainment data from the updated Barro-Lee Educational Attainment dataset (Barro and Lee, 2013) and GDP data from the Penn World Tables (PWT) 10.0 (Feenstra, Inklaar, and Timmer 2015).

_Note_ : The figure plots the increase in share of the adult (15+) population with tertiary education in the vertical axis against GDP growth between 1960 and 2020 in the horizontal axis. The line shows a linear fit of the relationship across all countries. Low-income countries were among the bottom third in 1960 in terms of per capita GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms; middle-income countries were among the middle third; high-income countries were in the top third. Countries whose GDP declined are omitted from the plot. Data labels use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes.

A higher level of education is associated with higher income in the origin country, which makes migration less attractive.<sup>17</sup> The disincentive to migrate to low-return destinations that do not offer much better prospects for the migrants could be especially strong. This could reduce migration to low-return destinations as a low-income country develops and poor people attain higher levels of education and better income opportunities domestically (figure 3, panel a).

Increased education reduces barriers to migrate, particularly to high-return destinations. As discussed, higher education reduces _financing_ constraints through higher incomes, particularly for high-cost, high-return destinations. Moreover, better educated workers may experience lower _frictions_ in the destination labor market due to better match of skills and improved ability to signal their ability to potential employers. They may also face lower policy barriers to emigrate to high-income countries due to the high demands for highskilled workers. Together, these factors lead to an increase in the skill profile of migrants as countries develop.

To observe these effects in the data, however, is challenging. Comprehensive data on the skill level of migrants, particularly time series data spanning several decades, do not yet exist. To provide some insight into the evolution of the skill profile of emigrants to high-income countries, this analysis turns to data from the United States, which is one of the biggest destinations for migrants from around the world, particularly for high-skilled workers. While not representative, data from this corridor can shed light on how emigration to high-income countries evolves in terms of skills as origin countries develop.

Data from the United States confirm that migrants become increasingly educated as origin countries develop. The increased educational attainment of the population also translates to increased educational profile of the migrants to the United States (figure 9, panel a). The relative share of the highly educated, with some tertiary education, among migrants increases steadily as origin countries develop. The share of the highly educated increase by 25 percentage points as origin countries’ incomes increase by 500 percent. The share of the medium-educated, with some secondary education, also increases by 10 percentage points.

The increased educational profile of migrants is driven not only by the higher educational attainment of the origin country population, but also by the increased rates of emigration as these countries develop. As panel b of figure 9 shows, the emigration rate of the highly educated increases much faster than those with lower levels of education as the origin countries develop. The probability that the highly educated would emigrate increases by 3 percentage points as origin countries increased their incomes by about 150 percent. The corresponding increase for those with lower levels of education is less than 1 percentage point. There is some indication of higher probability of emigration as countries increase their GDPs beyond 500 percent, but the estimates are noisier.

The evidence presented here is consistent with the increased skill profile of the migrants to high-return destinations as origin countries develop. This increase is driven by the changing educational composition in the origin countries as well as by a disproportionate reduction in migration barriers for the highly educated.

> 17 Even with increasing levels of education across the world, particularly in the developing countries, the economic return to education has largely remained unchanged over the past few decades. For a recent update of the large literature on returns to education, see Psacharopoulos and Patrinos (2018).

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