# **Table 3**

# **Determinants of growth amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Sensitivity Analysis II Changes in the set of explanatory variables**

_Dependent variable: Change in the predicted 2020 growth rate (June 2020 vs. October 2019) Least Squares, Effective sample of 110 countries across the world_

|||**Financial O**|**enness inde**||**201 **|**Human Ca**|**ital Index**||**Sens**|**tivitto Tr**|**de Variable**||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Variables|**[1]**|<br>**[2]**|<br>**[3]**|**[4]**|<br>**[5]**|<br>**[6]**|<br>**[7]**|**[8]**|<br>**[9]**|**y **<br>**[10]**|<br>**[11]**|**[12]**|
|_International Trade_|||||||||||||
|Trade Openness<br>_(% GDP)_|-0.0168<br>(00148)|..|..|-0.0186<br>(00148)|-0.0164<br>(00115)|..|..|-0.0117<br>(00112)|..|..|..|..|
|<br>Natural resource exports|.<br>..|-0.174**|..|.<br>..|.<br>..|-0.134**|..|.<br>..|..|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_||(0.0709)||||(0.0659)|||||||
|<br>Manufacturing imports||-000935||||-000142|||||||
|<br>_(% GDP)_|..|.<br>(0.0420)|..|..|..|.<br>(0.0420)|..|..|..|..|..|..|
|<br>Exports to Advanced|..|..|-0.0966**|..|..|..|-0.0755*|..|..|..|..|..|
|<br>Countries_(% GDP)_|||(0.0416)||||(0.0386)||||||
|Exports to Developing Countries|..|..|-0.151|..|..|..|-0.0761|..|..|..|..|..|
|Outside the region_(% GDP)_<br>|||(0.138)<br>||||(0.128)<br>*||||||
|Intra-regional exports|..|..|0.0236|..|..|..|0.0986|..|..|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_|||(0.0614)||||(0.0585)||||||
|Natural resource trade|||||||||-00884||-0114**||
|<br>_(% GDP, exports and imports)_|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|.<br>(0.0540)|..|.<br>(0.0527)|..|
|Manufacturing trade|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|-0.00302|..|-0.00451|..|
|_(% GDP, exports and imports)_<br>|||||||||(0.0211)||(0.0207)||
|Trade to Advanced Countries|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|-0.0535**|..|-0.0614**|
|_(% GDP, exports and imports)_||||||||||(0.0229)||(0.0237)|
|Trade to Developing Countries<br>|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|-0.0308<br>|..|-0.00329<br>|
|Outside the region_(% GDP)_||||||||||(0.0759)||(0.0919)|
|Intra-regional Trade|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|0.0333|..|0.0252|
|<br>_(% GDP, exports and imports)_||||||||||(0.0252)||(0.0259)|
|_International Finance_|||||||||||||
|Gross Capital Inflows|..|..|..|..|-0.0730|-0.0719|-0.0998|-0.0935|-0.0976|-0.103|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_<br>Financial Openness Index|-0591**|-0610**|-0419|-0556*|(0.0667)<br>|(0.0783)<br>|(0.0602)<br>|(0.0646)<br>|(0.0805)<br>|(0.0643)<br>|-0609**|-0440|
|<br>_(Chinn-Ito index)_|.<br>(0.296)|.<br>(0.299)|.<br>(0.307)|.<br>(0.296)|..|..|..|..|..|..|.<br>(0.302)|.<br>(0.294)|
|Remittances<br>_(% GDP received)_|0.0423<br>(00577)|-0.00331<br>(00805)|0.0294<br>(00572)|0.0540<br>(00581)|0.0146<br>(00593)|0.00263<br>(00841)|0.0190<br>(00565)|0.0234<br>(00571)|0.0934<br>(00766)|0.0281<br>(00587)|0.0759<br>(00741)|0.0259<br>(00626)|
|_,_<br>International Tourism|.<br>0.0419|.<br>-0.0119|.<br>0.0144|.<br>0.0415|.<br>0.0205|.<br>-0.00815|.<br>0.0336|.<br>0.0336|.<br>0.0188|.<br>0.0455|.<br>0.00696|.<br>0.0441|
|Revenues_(% GDP)_|(0.0306)|(0.0402)|(0.0336)|(0.0304)|(0.0288)|(0.0394)|(0.0313)|(0.0281)|(0.0390)|(0.0307)|(0.0372)|(0.0328)|
|_Health and Human Capital_|||||||||||||
|Human Capital|-1.726|-4.408|-1.507|-2.738|..|..|..|..|0.653|0.679|-2.014|-2.730|
|<br>2020 Index_(0-1)_<br>|(6.639)|(6.605)|(6.203)|(6.469)|||||(6.813)|(5.957)|(6.681)|(6.710)|
|Human Capital<br>2017 Index_(0-1)_|..|..|..|..|-11.80**<br>(4.544)|-9.733*<br>(5.788)|-7.803<br>(4.705)|-9.547**<br>(4.447)|||||
|_Macroeconomic Space_|||||||||||||
|Primary Balance|0.0808|0.326*|0.138|0.0899|0.167*|0.303*|0.197**|0.181**|0.299*|0.219**|0.254|0.111|
|<br>_(% GDP)_|(0.130)|(0.165)|(0.133)|(0.129)|(0.0918)|(0.162)|(0.0879)|(0.0884)|(0.164)|(0.0904)|(0.158)|(0.131)|
|General Govt Gross|0.0180|0.00163|0.0186|0.0180|0.00591|-0.00923|-0.00816|-0.00433|-0.00728|0.00559|0.00345|0.0184|
|Debt_(% GDP)_|(00146)|(00187)|(00143)|(00145)|(00159)|(00197)|(00151)|(00158)|(00201)|(00162)|(00188)|(00146)|
|<br>PPG External Debt<br> _(% GDP)_|.|.|.|.|.<br>0.00779<br>(0.00824)|.|.|.|.|.|.|.|
|<br>PPG Ext.Dbt. Official|0.0705**|0.0550|0.0791**|0.0705**||0.0764**|0.107***|0.0897***|0.0965***|0.102***|0.0656*|0.0777**|
|<br>Creditors_(% GDP)_|(0.0323)|(0.0359)|(0.0321)|(0.0321)||(0.0371)|(0.0300)|(0.0310)|(0.0359)|(0.0303)|(0.0355)|(0.0315)|
|PPG Ext.Dbt. Private|-0.0124|-0.0162|-0.0109|-0.0111||-0.0132|-0.00698|-0.00975|-0.0176|-0.0128|-0.0163|-0.00868|
|Creditors_(% GDP)_|(0.0108)|(0.0109)|(0.0104)|(0.0107)||(0.0111)|(0.0102)|(0.0102)|(0.0112)|(0.0102)|(0.0109)|(0.0105)|
|Inflation Rate|-0.0140**|-0.0137*|-0.0163**|-0.0132*|0.0803|0.0785|0.0882*|0.0820*|0.0511|0.0529|-0.0156**|-0.0152**|
|_(% end of period)_|(0.00695)|(0.00700)|(0.00692)|(0.00692)|(0.0506)|(0.0593)|(0.0474)|(0.0487)|(0.0606)|(0.0489)|(0.00699)|(0.00721)|
|<br>Current Account|0.192***|0.216***|0.205***|0.190***|0.137***|0.166**|0.109**|0.118**|0.134*|0.119**|0.210***|0.190***|
|Balance_(% GDP)_|(0.0495)|(0.0579)|(0.0476)|(0.0493)|(0.0501)|(0.0764)|(0.0454)|(0.0486)|(0.0750)|(0.0520)|(0.0582)|(0.0475)|
|_Policy Response_|||||||||||||
|Government Response (GR)<br>_(Oxford tracker)_|-0.0526<br>(00316)||||||||||||
|<br>Stringency Index|.|-0.0505*|-0.0502*|-0.0539*|-0.0531*|-0.0556*|-0.0509*|-0.0571**|-0.0788**|-0.0570**|-0.0686**|-0.0470*|
|_(Oxford tracker)_||(0.0291)|(0.0271)|(0.0280)|(0.0276)|(0.0300)|(0.0265)|(0.0266)|(0.0302)|(0.0265)|(0.0296)|(0.0274)|
|_Regional Dummies_|||||||||||||
|Dummy: Sub-Saharan|2.287*|1.967|2.463*|2.208*|0.412|1.435|1.857|1.274|3.520**|3.104**|2.477*|2.029|
|<br> Africa (SSA)|(1.261)|(1.377)|(1.291)|(1.256)|(1.154)|(1.403)|(1.144)|(1.154)|(1.363)|(1.285)|(1.357)|(1.497)|
|Observations|88|79|88|88|93|81|93|93|78|89|79|88|
|R-squared|0.39|0.483|0.440|0.397|0.358|0.471|0.455|0.413|0.454|0.450|0.476|0.444|

_Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1_ 19