# **Table 5**

**Determinants of growth amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Sensitivity Analysis I Changes in the dependent variable: IMF vs. WBG Projection Changes** _Effective sample of 110 countries across the world_

**_Instrumental Variables  1/_**

|||**IMFG**|**rowth Forec**|**astChanges **|**2**_/_|||**WBG**|**Growth Fore**|**castChange**|**s3**_/_||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Variables|**[1]**|<br>**[2]**|<br>**[3]**|<br>**[4]**|<br>**[5]**|**[6]**|**[7]**|<br>**[8]**|<br>**[9]**|<br>**[10]**|<br>**[11]**|**[12]**|
|_International Trade_|||||||||||||
|Trade Openness<br>|-0.111*<br>|-0.0795*<br>|..|..|-0.0572*<br>|-0.0934*<br>|-0.121*<br>|-0.0900*<br>|..|..|-0.0559*<br>|-0.0993*<br>|
|_(% GDP)_<br>|(0.0639)|(0.0448)|||(0.0339)|(0.0512)|(0.0662)|(0.0470)|||(0.0312)|(0.0520)|
|Natural resource exports|..|..|-0.213|..|..|..|..|..|-0.255|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_|||(0.178)||||||(0.182)||||
|Manufacturing imports<br>_(% GDP)_|..|..|-0.208<br>(0.184)|..|..|..|..|..|-0.225<br>(0.188)|..|..|..|
|<br>Exports to Advanced|..|..|..|-0.209**|..|..|..|..|..|-0.233**|..|..|
|Countries_(% GDP)_||||(0.0923)||||||(0.0948)|||
|Exports to Developing Countries|..|..|..|-0.115|..|..|..|..|..|-0.0751|..|..|
|<br>Outside the region_(% GDP)_||||(0.261)||||||(0.268)|||
|Intra-regional exports|..|..|..|-0.123|..|..|..|..|..|-0.161|..|..|
|<br>_(% GDP)_||||(0.195)||||||(0.200)|||
|_International Finance_|||||||||||||
|Gross Capital Inflows|-0.264|-0.315**|-0.220|-0.299**|..|-0.312**|-0.313*|-0.366**|-0.291|-0.344**|..|-0.363**|
|_(% GDP)_<br>Gross FDI Inflows|(0.175)|(0.137)|(0.199)|(0.139)|00181|(0.149)|(0.181)|(0.143)|(0.203)|(0.143)|-000921|(0.151)|
|<br>_(% GDP)_|..|..|..|..|.<br>(0.194)|..|..|..|..|..|.<br>(0.178)|..|
|Gross Portfolio Investment<br>|..|..|..|..|0.423<br>|..|..|..|..|..|0.322<br>|..|
|Inflows_(% GDP)_|||||(0.259)||||||(0.238)||
|Gross Other Investment|..|..|..|..|0.0856|..|..|..|..|..|0.0357|..|
|Inflows_(% GDP)_|||||(0.227)||||||(0.208)||
|<br>Remittances|0.223|0.198|0.513|0.230|0.167|0.306*|0.255|0.231*|0.531|0.258*|0.171|0.329**|
|_(% GDP, received)_|(0.171)|(0.130)|(0.375)|(0.147)|(0.118)|(0.165)|(0.177)|(0.136)|(0.384)|(0.150)|(0.108)|(0.168)|
|International Tourism|-0.0465|-0.00693|-0.0524|-0.0474|-0.0121|0.00621|-0.0362|0.00423|-0.0507|-0.0438|-0.0124|0.0181|
|Revenues_(% GDP)_|(0.0808)|(0.0622)|(0.108)|(0.0731)|(0.0478)|(0.0672)|(0.0838)|(0.0652)|(0.110)|(0.0751)|(0.0439)|(0.0682)|
|_Health and Human Capital_|||||||||||||
|Human Capital|40.36*|36.02**|10.77|19.11|8.820|22.92|47.12*|43.06**|18.77|25.42*|11.30|28.69*|
|2020 Index_(0-1)_|(24.50)|(18.32)|(18.40)|(13.56)|(10.20)|(15.78)|(25.39)|(19.21)|(18.80)|(13.93)|(9.365)|(16.02)|
|_Macroeconomic Space_|||||||||||||
|<br>Primary Balance|0.0621|0.106|0.323|0.331|0.300**|0.330|0.0479|0.0922|0.360|0.309|0.258*|0.313|
|_(% GDP)_|(0.244)|(0.188)|(0.450)|(0.205)|(0.144)|(0.218)|(0.253)|(0.197)|(0.460)|(0.210)|(0.132)|(0.221)|
|General Govt Gross|-0.000980|-0.0263|-0.0462|-0.0362|-0.0589**|-0.0348|0.00889|-0.0171|-0.0363|-0.0272|-0.0508**|-0.0257|
|Debt_(% GDP)_|(0.0445)|(0.0348)|(0.0505)|(0.0350)|(0.0263)|(0.0380)|(0.0461)|(0.0365)|(0.0516)|(0.0359)|(0.0242)|(0.0385)|
|PPG External Debt|-0.00568|..|..|..|..|..|-0.00821|..|..|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_|(0.0222)||||||(0.0230)||||||
|<br>PPG Ext.Dbt. Official|..|0.155**|0.101|0.148**|0.0936**|0.148**|..|0.159**|0.103|0.146**|0.0869**|0.148**|
|Creditors_(% GDP)_||(0.0679)|(0.0887)|(0.0660)|(0.0463)|(0.0721)||(0.0712)|(0.0906)|(0.0677)|(0.0426)|(0.0732)|
|PPG Ext.Dbt. Private|..|-0.0382*|-0.0115|-0.0166|-0.0127|-0.0232|..|-0.0419*|-0.0178|-0.0200|-0.0147|-0.0264|
|Crditr_(% GDP)_||(00227)|(00277)|(00211)|(00141)|(00233)||(00238)|(00283)|(00217)|(00129)|(00237)|
|eos <br>Inflation Rate|0.172|.<br>0.151|.<br>0.255|.<br>0.200*|.<br>0.139|.<br>0.205*|0.136|.<br>0.115|.<br>0.214|.<br>0.158|.<br>0.105|.<br>0.164|
|_(% end of period)_|(0.139)|(0.106)|(0.175)|(0.120)|(0.0864)|(0.124)|(0.144)|(0.112)|(0.179)|(0.123)|(0.0794)|(0.126)|
|Current Account|0.261*|0.222**|0.332*|0.277**|0.0246|0.202*|0.224|0.185|0.267|0.251**|-0.0418|0.166|
|Balance_(% GDP)_|(0.138)|(0.109)|(0.181)|(0.110)|(0.0819)|(0.119)|(0.143)|(0.114)|(0.185)|(0.113)|(0.0753)|(0.121)|
|_Policy Response_|||||||||||||
|Government Response (GR)|-0.736**|-0.543**|..|..|..|..|-0.750*|-0.559**|..|..|..|..|
|_(Oxford tracker)_|(0.370)|(0.247)|||||(0.383)|(0.259)|||||
|Stringency Index|..|..|-0.614*|-0.476*|-0.350**|-0.546**|..|..|-0.607*|-0.470*|-0.313**|-0.530**|
|<br>_(Oxford tracker)_|||(0.335)|(0.247)|(0.141)|(0.247)|||(0.342)|(0.254)|(0.129)|(0.250)|
|_Regional Dummies_|||||||||||||
|Dummy: Sub-Saharan|3.369|5.676**|2.161|4.609*|1.463|4.503|4.338|6.701**|3.285|5.547*|1.982|5.612*|
|<br> Africa (SSA)|(3.321)|(2.564)|(3.883)|(2.782)|(1.812)|(2.912)|(3.441)|(2.688)|(3.968)|(2.857)|(1.665)|(2.956)|
|Observations|85|85|75|85|75|85|85|85|75|85|75|85|
|R-squared||0.012||0.026||||||0.009|||

_1/ We control the likely endogeneity of the policy response with 2019 levels of real GDP per capita, government tax revenues (% GDP), voice and accountability, and political stability_ _2/ IMF 2020 Growth Forecast Changes (WEO October 2020 vs. WEO October 2019). 3/ WBG 2020 Growth Forecast Changes (MPO October 2020 vs. MPO October 2019). Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1_ 21