# 4. Discussion

Of course, these numbers should be used with caution because they largely underestimate the total impacts of climate change on poverty. First, disaster risk data are not available in all countries, and the impact is calculated only in the countries and for the disasters for which data are available.

Second, these estimates do not include macroeconomic impacts or indirect impacts, and they assume that each disaster happens independently. As such, they disregard some of the elements discussed in Hallegatte et al. (2016, 2017).

And finally, because we rely on household surveys that report only household‐level consumption, we cannot explore the intra‐household distributional issues, and especially the question of whether children or women are disproportionally affected by natural disasters. Gender inequality has been   widely reported see, for example, Hoddinot et al. (2006) and Rose (1999) and a disproportionate   impact on children is well‐identified see Kousky (2016) but these important effects cannot be included in this analysis. The estimates proposed here are therefore a lower bound to the impacts of natural disasters on poverty.

# 5. References

- Devarajan, Shantayanan, S. Delfin Go, Maryla Maliszewska, Israel Osorio‐Rodarte, and Hans Timmer. 2013. “Stress‐Testing Africa’s Recent Growth and Poverty Performance.” Policy Research Working Paper 6517, Development Prospect Group & Africa Region, Office Of The Chief Economist, The  World Bank.

- Hallegatte, S., M. Bangalore, L. Bonzanigo, M. Fay, T. Kane, U. Narloch, J. Rozenberg et al. 2016.

- Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank.

- Hallegatte, S., A. Vogt‐Schilb, M. Bangalore, and J. Rozenberg. 2017. Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. Climate Change and Development Series. Washington, DC: World Bank.

- Hoddinott, J. 2006. “Shocks and Their Consequences across and within Households in Rural Zimbabwe.” Journal of Development Studies 42: 301–21.

- Hertel, Thomas W., Marshall B. Burke, and David B. Lobell. 2010. “The Poverty Implications of Climate‐Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030.” Global Environmental Change, 20th Anniversary Special Issue, 20 (4): 577–85. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.001.

- Ivanic, Maros, and Will Martin. 2008. “Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low‐ Income countries1.” Agricultural Economics 39 (November): 405–16. doi:10.1111/j.1574‐ 0862.2008.00347.x.

- Ivanic, Maros, Will Martin, and Hassan Zaman. 2012. “Estimating the Short‐Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices.” World Development 40 (11): 2302–17. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.03.024.

Kousky, C. 2016. “Impacts of Natural Disasters on Children.” Future of Children 26(1): 73–92.

- Osorio‐Rodarte, Israel, Marcio Cruz, and Maurizio Bussolo. 2015. “GIDD Sectoral Wage Bill Database by Workers ́skill Level.”.

- Rose, E. 1999. “Consumption Smoothing and Excess Female Mortality in Rural India.” Review of Economics and statistics 81 (1): 41–49.

- Rozenberg, J. and Hallegatte, S., 2015. The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate‐informed development. Policy Research Working Paper 7483. Washington, DC: World Bank.

8