# **Table 2**

**Determinants of growth amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Sensitivity Analysis I Changes in the dependent variable: IMF vs. WBG Projection Changes** _Effective sample of 110 countries across the world Least Squares_

|||**IMF**|**Growth Fore**|**cast Change**|**s **_1/_|||**WBG**|**Growth Fo**|**recast Chang**|**es **_2/_||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Variables|**[1]**|**[2]**|**[3]**|**[4]**|**[5]**|**[6]**|**[7]**|**[8]**|**[9]**|**[10]**|**[11]**|**[12]**|
|_International Trade_|||||||||||||
|<br>Trade Openness<br>_% GDP_|-0.0248<br>00254|-0.0228<br>00249|..|..|-0.0185<br>00163|-0.0250<br>00248|-0.0286<br>00266|-0.0266<br>00261|..|..|-0.0169<br>00149|-0.0278<br><br>00262|
|_( )_<br>|(.)|(.)|||(.)|(.)|(.)|(.)|||(.|(.)|
|Natural resource exports<br>|..|..|-0.247**<br>|..|..|..|..|..|-0.297**<br>|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_|||(0.113)||||||(0.119)||||
|Manufacturing imports<br>|..|..|0.00464<br>|..|..|..|..|..|0.000422<br>|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_<br>Exports to Advanced|..|..|(0.0705)<br>..|-0.154**|..|..|..|..|(0.0741)<br>..|-0.170**|..|..|
|<br>Countries_(% GDP)_||||(0.0665)||||||(0.0706)|||
|Exports to Developing Countries<br>Outside the region_(% GDP)_|..|..|..|-0.134<br>(0.212)|..|..|..|..|..|-0.0937<br>(0.225)|..|..|
|Intra-regional exports<br>|..|..|..|0.138<br>|..|..|..|..|..|0.110<br>|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_||||(0.0995)||||||(0.106)|||
|_International Finance_|||||||||||||
|Gross Capital Inflows|-0.246**|-0.274**|-0.209|-0.251**|..|-0.275**|-0.286**|-0.315***|-0.266*|-0.284**|..|-0.316***|
|_(% GDP)_|(0.113)|(0.112)|(0.131)|(0.110)||(0.111)|(0.119)|(0.117)|(0.138)|(0.117)||(0.117)|
|Gross FDI Inflows<br>_(% GDP)_|..|..|..|..|-0.155<br>(0.139)|..|..|..|..|..|-0.163<br>(0.127)|..|
|Gross Portfolio Investment|..|..|..|..|0.233|..|..|..|..|..|0.142|..|
|Inflows_(% GDP)_|||||(0.202)||||||(0.184)||
|Gross Other Investment|||||0232||||||0169||
|<br>Inflows_(% GDP)_|..|..|..|..|.<br>(0.154)|..|..|..|..|..|.<br>(0.141)|..|
|<br>Remittances|0.0617|0.0699|0.0580|0.0783|0.0544|0.0987|0.0874|0.0958|0.0658|0.103|0.0673|0.121|
|<br>_(% GDP, received)_|(0.0965)|(0.0946)|(0.135)|(0.0933)|(0.0720)|(0.0954)|(0.101)|(0.0994)|(0.142)|(0.0990)|(0.0657)|(0.101)|
|International Tourism|-0.0273|-0.00853|-0.0823|-0.0183|-0.0604|-0.00701|-0.0157|0.00351|-0.0827|-0.0116|-0.0630*|0.00498|
|Revenues_(% GDP)_|(0.0489)|(0.0488)|(0.0671)|(0.0529)|(0.0366)|(0.0485)|(0.0513)|(0.0513)|(0.0706)|(0.0562)|(0.0334)|(0.0512)|
|_Health and Human Capital_|||||||||||||
|<br>Human Capital|7.365|10.61|2.977|8.196|3.477|7.256|11.72|15.04|9.288|12.85|5.449|11.64|
|2020 Index_(0-1)_|(10.58)|(10.49)|(11.03)|(9.807)|(6.672)|(10.20)|(11.09)|(11.02)|(11.60)|(10.41)|(6.089)|(10.77)|
|_Macroeconomic Space_|||||||||||||
|<br>Primary Balance|0.159|0.176|0.588**|0.257*|0.145|0.227|0.154|0.171|0.660**|0.244|0.109|0.220|
|_(% GDP)_|(0.156)|(0.153)|(0.277)|(0.151)|(0.106)|(0.153)|(0.164)|(0.161)|(0.291)|(0.160)|(0.0970)|(0.161)|
|<br>General Govt Gross|-0.00720|-0.0202|-0.0349|-0.0237|-0.0359*|-0.0226|-0.00139|-0.0146|-0.0295|-0.0179|-0.0315*|-0.0169|
|Debt_(% GDP)_|(0.0276)|(0.0277)|(0.0327)|(0.0268)|(0.0198)|(0.0276)|(0.0289)|(0.0291)|(0.0344)|(0.0284)|(0.0181)|(0.0291)|
|PPG External Debt|-0.00307|..|..|..|..|..|-0.00411|..|..|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_|(0.0143)||||||(0.0150)||||||
|<br>PPG Ext.Dbt. Official|..|0.0999*|0.0725|0.117**|0.0541|0.0982*|..|0.101*|0.0734|0.114**|0.0499|0.0988*|
|Creditors_(% GDP)_||(0.0524)|(0.0591)|(0.0511)|(0.0343)|(0.0520)||(0.0550)|(0.0621)|(0.0543)|(0.0313)|(0.0549)|
|PPG Ext.Dbt. Private|..|-0.0252|-0.0217|-0.0157|-0.0127|-0.0213|..|-0.0267|-0.0266|-0.0177|-0.0137|-0.0229|
|Creditors_(% GDP)_||(0.0177)|(0.0182)|(0.0170)|(0.0112)|(0.0175)||(0.0186)|(0.0191)|(0.0181)|(0.0102)|(0.0185)|
|Inflation Rate|0.0921|0.0932|0.116|0.109|0.0609|0.106|0.0624|0.0636|0.0811|0.0747|0.0357|0.0746|
|_(% end of eriod)_|(00856)|(00839)|(00986)|(00811)|(00646)|(00837)|(00898)|(00881)|(0104)|(00861|(00590|(00884)|
|_p_<br>Current Account|.<br>0.239**|.<br>0.210**|.<br>0.311**|.<br>0.236***|.<br>0.0446|.<br>0.207**|.<br>0.200**|.<br>0.171*|.<br>0.245*|.<br>0.204**|.<br><br>-0.0261|.<br>0.168*|
|Balance_(% GDP)_|(0.0912)|(0.0904)|(0.122)|(0.0885)|(0.0655)|(0.0899)|(0.0956)|(0.0949)|(0.128)|(0.0940)|(0.0598)|(0.0949)|
|_Policy Response_|||||||||||||
|Government Response (GR)|-0.133**|-0.143***|..|..|..|..|-0.129**|-0.139**|..|..|..|..|
|<br>_(Oxford tracker)_|(00528)|(00520)|||||(00554)|(00546)|||||
|<br>Stringency Index|.<br>..|.<br>..|-0.126**|-0.121***|-0.108***|-0.133***|.<br>..|.<br>..|-0.115**|-0.114**|-0.0828**|*<br>-0.124**|
|<br>_(Oxford tracker)_|||(0.0488)|(0.0437)|(0.0307)|(0.0456)|||(0.0513)|(0.0464)|(0.0280)|(0.0482)|
|_Regional Dummies_<br>Dummy: Sub-Saharan|3.911*|4.896**|5.132**|5.172**|1.906|4.734**|4.838**|5.843***|6.192**|5.958***|2.393*|5.713***|
|<br> Africa (SSA)|(2.001)|(2.019)|(2.243)|(2.032)|(1.369)|(2.012)|(2.099)|(2.121)|(2.358)|(2.157)|(1.249)|(2.124)|
|Observations|89|89|78|89|79|89|89|89|78|89|79|89|
|R-squared|0.390|0.422|0.513|0.478|0.478|0.429|0.357|0.389|0.485|0.436|0.455|0.389|

- _1/ IMF 2020 Growth Forecast Changes (WEO October 2020 vs. WEO October 2019). 2/ WBG 2020 Growth Forecast Changes (MPO October 2020 vs. MPO October 2019). Standard errors in parentheses.  *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1_

18