rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Measuring poverty dynamics with
            synthetic panels based on cross-sections
Panel data conventionally underpin the
            analysis of poverty mobility over time. However, such data
            are not readily available for most developing countries. Far
            more common are the "snap-shots" of welfare
            captured by cross-section surveys. This paper proposes a
            method to construct synthetic panel data from cross sections
            which can provide point estimates of poverty mobility. In
            contrast to traditional pseudo-panel methods that require
            multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty at
            the cohort level, the proposed method can be applied to
            settings with as few as two survey rounds and also permits
            investigation at the more disaggregated household level. The
            procedure is implemented using cross-section survey data
            from several countries, spanning different income levels and
            geographical regions. Estimates fall within the 95 percent
            confidence interval -- or even one standard error in many
            cases -- of those based on actual panel data. The method is
            not only restricted to studying poverty mobility but can
            also accommodate investigation of other welfare outcome dynamics.
Entry regulation and formalization
            of microenterprises in developing countries
The majority of microenterprises in most
            developing countries remain informal despite more than a
            decade of reforms aimed at making it easier and cheaper for
            them to formalize. This paper summarizes the evidence on the
            effects of entry reforms and related policy actions to
            promote firm formalization. Most of these policies result
            only in a modest increase in the number of formal firms, if
            at all. Less is known about the impact of other forms of
            business regulations on the performance of low-scale
            enterprises. Most informal firms appear not to benefit on
            net from formalizing, so ease of formalization alone will
            not lead to most of them formalizing. Increased enforcement
            of rules can increase formality. Although there is a fiscal
            benefit of doing this with larger informal firms, it is
            unclear whether there is a public rationale for trying to
            formalize subsistence enterprises.
Increase in protectionism and its
            impact on Sri Lanka's performance in global markets
Sri Lanka's external performance
            defies global trends on two counts. First, the level of
            openness as measured by the ratio of trade in goods and
            services, after a strong increase in 1987-95 and stagnation
            in 1996-2004, sharply fell in 2005-10 to the levels
            experienced during the era of import substitution. Second,
            the share of clothing in manufactured exports has remained
            largely unchanged over the past 25 years. Had there been no
            economic growth, this would not have been puzzling. The
            paper argues that these unique features can be traced to (a)
            the duality of Sri Lanka's economic regime -- the
            legacy of unfinished structural reforms of a socialist
            economic regime -- and (b) high and growing protectionism in
            the 2000s. Sri Lanka's experience shows that the lack
            of stability in trade policy combined with recently
            expanding protectionism and the state's micromanagement
            of investment does not create an institutional/policy
            setting conducive to rapidly evolving composition of exports
            and their fast growth. The practice of dealing with
            weaknesses in trade policies and the business environment
            through granting exemptions to various activities deemed
            desirable by the authorities only exacerbates distortions
            and creates more fertile ground for rent seeking. Without a
            radical overhaul of the current policy framework shaping
            interaction of Sri Lankan businesses with global markets,
            economic growth may be reduced, if not reversed.
Connection charges and electricity
            access in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa trails other regions
            in providing access to electricity for poor urban and rural
            residents. This poor performance can be linked to various
            factors, including political interference in utility policy,
            higher investment costs and lower profitability of extending
            service to rural areas. But a major obstacle to wider access
            is the high charges consumers must pay to connect to the
            electricity network. The connection charges in Sub-Saharan
            Africa are among the highest in the world, which has
            resulted in low rates of electrification in many countries.
            This paper reviews ways to improve electrification rates by
            addressing the issue of high connection charges. Essential
            to the success of such efforts is concurrent political
            commitment to identify, examine, and implement various
            low-cost electrification approaches and financing solutions
            as part of a broad plan to improve access. Electricity
            companies can lower their connection-related costs, and thus
            consumer charges, by using a variety of low-cost
            technologies and materials in distribution networks and
            household connections; making bulk purchases of materials;
            and adjusting technical standards to reflect the lower loads
            of households that use a minimum amount of electricity.
            Strategies for lowering connection charges may also include
            spreading charges over a reasonable period, rolling them
            into monthly service payments, subsidizing connections, or
            amortizing them through loans. Lowering connection charges
            is not the only step, but it is an essential part of any
            strategy for addressing the electricity access gap between
            rich and poor households in Sub-Saharan Africa, a gap that
            denies millions of poor Africans the benefits of electricity.
How much does an increase in oil
            prices affect the global economy some insights from a
            general equilibrium analysis
A global computable general equilibrium
            model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil
            prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels
            to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the
            global economy are comparable to those found in other
            studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across
            countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of
            high-income countries, which are relatively energy
            intensive, would suffer more from rising oil prices than
            would those in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse
            is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The
            impacts are especially strong for oil importers with
            relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as
            India and China. Although the availability of biofuels does
            mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices,
            the benefit is small because the capacity of biofuels to
            economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale
            remains limited.
Climate change in the Himalayas :
            current state of knowledge
This paper reviews the literature on the
            potential biophysical and economic impacts of climate change
            in the Himalayas. Existing observations indicate that the
            temperature is rising at a higher rate in Nepal and Chinese
            regions of the Himalayas compared with rest of the
            Himalayas. A declining trend of monsoon in the western
            Indian Himalayas and an increasing trend in the eastern
            Indian Himalayas have been observed, whereas increasing
            precipitation and stream flow in many parts of Tibetan
            Plateau are noted. Glaciers in both the eastern and western
            Himalayas are mostly retreating, but the majority of the
            glaciers in Karakorum are either stable or advancing slowly.
            Expansion of glacier lakes is reported, with the highest
            rate in Nepal and Bhutan. Most literature predicts increases
            in temperature and monsoon precipitations and decreases in
            winter precipitations in the future thereby leading to
            monsoon flooding and increased sediments in stream flow.
            Available hydrological simulations indicate reduced rainfall
            and shrinkage of glacier thereby leading to shortage of
            water supply for power generation and irrigation in winter
            particularly in highly glaciated basins. Projected economic
            impacts of glacial lake outburst floods can be substantial
            on the developed river basin with infrastructures and
            population centers. However, there is a clear gap in
            knowledge of economic impacts of climate change in the Himalayas.
The effect of product standards on
            agricultural exports from developing countries
The authors create a standards
            restrictiveness index using newly available data on maximum
            residue levels of pesticides for 61 importing countries. The
            paper analyzes the impact that food safety standards have on
            international trade of agricultural products. The findings
            suggest that more restrictive standards are associated, on
            average, with a lower probability of observing trade.
            However, after controlling for sample selection and the
            proportion of exporting firms in a gravity model, the
            analysis finds that the effect of standards on trade
            intensity is indistinguishable from zero. This is consistent
            with the assumption that meeting stringent standards
            increases primarily the fixed costs of exporting. Once firms
            enter the market, however, standards do not impact the level
            of exports. The analysis also finds a greater marginal
            effect of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South
            Africa) standards on the probability of trade, relative to
            other countries' standards, keeping in mind however
            that on average BRICS standards are less restrictive. The
            analysis also suggests that exporters in low-income
            countries are more adversely affected by stricter standards.
Incentivizing schooling for learning
            : evidence on the impact of alternative targeting approaches
This paper evaluates a primary school
            scholarship program in Cambodia with two different targeting
            mechanisms, one based on poverty level and the other on
            baseline test scores ("merit"). Both targeting
            mechanisms increased enrollment and attendance. However,
            only the merit-based targeting induced positive effects on
            test scores. The paper shows that the asymmetry of response
            is unlikely to have been driven by differences between
            recipients' characteristics. Higher student and family
            effort among beneficiaries of the merit-based scholarships
            suggest that the framing of the scholarship mattered for
            impact. The results suggest that in order to balance equity
            and efficiency, a two-step targeting approach might be
            preferable: first, target low-income individuals, and then,
            among them, target based on merit.
International lending, sovereign
            debt and joint liability : an economic theory model for
            amending the treaty of Lisbon
As the Eurozone crisis drags on, it is
            evident that a part of the problem lies in the architecture
            of debt and its liabilities within the Eurozone and, more
            generally, the European Union. This paper argues that a
            large part of the problem can be mitigated by permitting
            appropriately-structured cross-country liability for
            sovereign debt incurred by individual nations within the
            European Union. In brief, the paper makes a case for
            amending the Treaty of Lisbon. The case is established by
            constructing a game-theoretic model and demonstrating that
            there exist self-fulfilling equilibria, which would come
            into existence if cross-country debt liability were
            permitted and which are Pareto superior to the existing outcome.
Is small better a comparison of the
            effect of large and small dams on cropland productivity in
            South Africa
This study estimates and compares the
            effects of small and large irrigation dams on cropland
            productivity in South Africa. To this end, a panel data set
            of South African river basins is constructed. The
            econometric analysis reveals that although large dams
            increase cropland productivity downstream, they have a
            negative effect on cropland within the vicinity. However,
            their existence can enhance the relatively small positive
            impact of local small dams. Although a cost-benefit analysis
            of irrigation benefits shows that small dams may be more
            viable than large ones, large dams can play a potentially
            important role within a system of both types of dams.
Drivers of firm-level productivity
            in Russia's manufacturing sector
This note presents the results of an
            empirical analysis of firm-level productivity growth in
            Russia's manufacturing sector during the period 2003-08
            using a rich Amadeus database as well as the recent
            EBRD/World Bank Business Enterprise and Performance surveys
            (BEEPs). The results show that productivity grew steadily
            between 2003 and 2008, with an annual growth rate averaging
            4 percent over the period, showing no signs of a slowdown
            from the previous period after the 1998 crisis. Firm
            characteristics such as size, location, age, and the
            structure of firm ownership are important determinants of
            productivity, as evidenced by positive effects of scale
            economies (large firm effect), agglomeration (Moscow-city
            effect), private ownership, and a firm's industry
            dominance. Supplemental analysis of the quality of
            infrastructure -- water, electricity, transport, and the
            internet -- using BEEPS data show that infrastructure
            quality gaps reduce firm productivity with water supply gaps
            having the largest impact.
Resolving the African financial
            development gap : cross-country comparisons and a
            within-country study of Kenya
With extensive country and firm-level
            data sets, this paper first documents that the financial
            sectors of most Sub-Saharan African countries remain
            significantly underdeveloped by the standards of other
            developing countries. The paper also finds that population
            density appears to be considerably more important for
            banking sector development in Africa than elsewhere. To
            better understand how countries can overcome the high costs
            of developing viable banking sectors outside large
            metropolitan areas, the analysis focuses on Kenya, which has
            made significant strides in financial inclusion and
            development in recent years. The paper finds a positive and
            significant impact of Equity Bank, a leading private
            commercial bank, on financial access, especially for
            underprivileged households. Equity Bank's business
            model -- providing financial services to population segments
            typically ignored by traditional commercial banks and
            generating sustainable profits in the process -- can be a
            potential solution to the financial access problem that has
            hindered the development of inclusive financial sectors in
            many other African countries.
Resolving the African financial
            development gap : cross-country comparisons and a
            within-country study of Kenya
WPS6592 Policy Research Working Paper 6592 Resolving the African Financial Development Gap Cross-Country Comparisons and a Within-Country Study of Kenya _Franklin Allen Elena Carletti Robert Cull Jun Qian Lemma Senbet Patricio Valenzuela_ The World Bank Development Research Group Finance and Private Sector Development Team September 2013
Middle-income traps : a conceptual
            and empirical survey
In recent years, the term
            "middle-income trap" has entered common parlance
            in the development policy community. The term itself often
            has not been precisely defined in the incipient literature.
            This paper discusses in more detail definitional issues on
            the so-called middle-income trap. The paper presents
            evidence in terms of both absolute and relative thresholds.
            To get a better understanding of whether the performance of
            the middle-income trap has been different from other income
            categories, the paper examines historical transition phases
            in the inter-country distribution of income based on
            previous work in the literature. Transition matrix analysis
            provides little support for the idea of a middle-income
            trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth provides
            additional support for the conclusions in the paper, which
            closes with a general discussion of potential policy implications.
Oil price volatility, economic
            growth and the hedging role of renewable energy
This paper investigates the adverse
            effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the
            extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by
            using renewable energy. By considering the Realized
            Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard
            approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the
            effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are
            analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and
            developing, oil importing and exporting and
            service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan,
            Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus
            complement the standard literature's analysis of
            Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting,
            Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and
            variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has
            more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price
            shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the
            sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across
            countries and discusses various factors which may determine
            the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and
            the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of
            solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not
            sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical
            energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate
            the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to
            disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets.
            It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in
            principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil
            price volatility, but a country-specific analysis would be
            necessary to identify concrete policy measures. Overall, the
            paper provides an additional rationale for reducing exposure
            and vulnerability to oil price volatility for the sake of
            economic growth.
Brazil's bank spread in
            international context : from macro to micro drivers
In an international context, this paper
            analyzes the main drivers of Brazil's bank spreads
            measured by the net interest margin, by estimating
            internationally comparable measures for (i) institutional
            and regulatory (micro-) factors; (ii) macro-economic
            factors; and (iii) banking competition factors. The paper
            produces and applies a novel data set covering 197 areas and
            countries; ranging from 1995 to 2009, including 106 banks
            for Brazil and 16,434 banks worldwide. The analysis finds
            that micro-factors are the main drivers of spreads across
            the world. In the case of Brazil, the spread is found to be
            strongly accounted for by micro-factors -- also in
            international comparison. For example, micro-factors
            contributed 7.2 percentage points (79 percent) of the 11.5
            percent total spread in Brazil in 2009, while macro-factors
            and banking competition factors jointly accounted for only
            1.9 percentage points (21 percent). Conversely, Brazil does
            not rank high in international comparison in terms of
            macro-economic risk: Brazil and other countries from Latin
            America and the Caribbean are found to feature the highest
            micro-factors in the world while having the second-highest
            spreads and the second-lowest contribution of macro-factors.
            These unique findings suggest that countries striving toward
            reducing bank spreads should consider policies aimed at
            reducing microeconomic frictions in their banking sectors,
            in particular, (i) the economic costs of holding reserves,
            (ii) credit risk, and (iii) implicit interest payments. In
            terms of policy dialogue, this would be especially relevant
            for Brazil and for Latin American and Caribbean countries in general.
Trade, informal employment and labor
            adjustment costs
Informal employment is ubiquitous in
            developing countries, but few studies have estimated
            workers' switching costs between informal and formal
            employment. This paper builds on the empirical literature
            grounded in discrete choice models to estimate these costs.
            The results suggest that inter-industry labor mobility costs
            are large, but entry costs into informal employment are
            significantly lower than the costs of entry in formal
            employment. Simulations of labor-market adjustments caused
            by a trade-related fall in manufacturing goods prices
            indicate that the share of informally employed workers rises
            after liberalization, but this is due to entry into the
            labor market by previously idle labor.