**The EU’s CRMA will increase costs for exporters of critical minerals to the EU, but it will also increase the EU’s demand from non-dominant mineral exporters** . The CRMA’s environmental and social requirements on production will increase costs for exporters from developing countries. Its diversification targets aimed at reducing disruption risks will impact market access. In the short term, exports from established but non-dominant exporters are expected to rise in response to the EU’s growing demand (Table 2). Developing countries like Guinea (bauxite), Kazakhstan (titanium and phosphorus), and Mexico (fluorspar) may benefit.<sup>21</sup> In contrast, dominant exporters such as China (providing 100 percent of the EU's heavy rare earth elements), Türkiye (supplying 98 percent of boron), Chile (providing 79 percent of the EU’s needs for lithium), and South Africa<sup>22</sup> (providing 71 percent of platinum) might see decreased exports due to the EU’s diversification efforts.

**Table 2 EU mineral demand forecasts in a high demand scenario**

||**EU demand in 2030 compared with**<br>**2020**|**EU forecasted**<br>**compared with 2**|**demand in 2050**<br>**020**|
|---|---|---|---|
|Lithium|X 12|X 21||
|Graphite|X 14|X 26||
|Nickel|X 10|X 16||
|Dysprosium|X 6|X 7||
|Neodymium|X 5|X 6||
|Platinum|X 30|X 200||
|Aluminum|X 4|X 6||

_Source:_ Carrara et al. (2023).

**In the medium to long term, as new mining operations arise elsewhere, countries with abundant reserves are anticipated to enter in or expand exports to the EU market.** It takes on average 16 years from discovery to production (S&P Market Intelligence 2023), varying by mineral (shorter period for Lithium) and regulatory environment.<sup>23</sup> As extraction progresses, new or non-dominant exporters will find opportunities due to rising demand projected through 2030 and up to 2050, despite the EU's increased extraction and domestic recycling efforts. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre predicts significant increases in demand for minerals like lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, platinum, and rare-earth elements, driven mainly by the electric mobility sector (Carrara et al. 2023). For example, in a highdemand scenario, EU demand for lithium for batteries is expected to rise 12-fold by 2030 and 21-fold by 2050 compared to 2020, while aluminum demand – crucial for solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries – could quadruple by 2030 and sextuple by 2050 (Table 3).

**<mark>Mineral reserve-rich developing countries may gain from this surging demand if they are able to scale up production and improve competitiveness in the EU market.</mark>** <mark>Such could be the case for Mozambique (with more than half of the world's graphite reserves), the Democratic Republic of Congo (holding 43 percent of global cobalt reserves), South Africa (with 38 percent of global manganese reserves), Argentina (with 22 percent of global lithium reserves), and Indonesia (with 18 percent of global nickel reserves) (Table 3).</mark>

**Table 3 Top countries in strategic critical minerals reserves, (% of global reserve)**

|**Cobalt**|**Copper**|**Graphite**|**Lithium**|**Manganese**|**Nickel**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|

21 European Council (2024).

> 22 Ibid.

23 The average lead time was calculated for 127 precious and base metals mines that began production between 2002 and 2023 and were discovered from 1980 onward. The time ranged between six and 32 years.

19