rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
participate in these markets. This pattern could reflect exporters’ inability to pay the additional compliance costs and trade diversion to less costly product-destination markets. Our findings are consistent with firm-level evidence from France (Fontagné et al., 2015; Fontagné and Orefice, 2018).

Third, we extend the analysis of heterogeneity in the effects of NTM types across firm characteristics. Our results align with the predominant finding of the empirical literature, that small firms suffer disproportionate impacts of TBTs (e.g., Arkolakis, 2010; Curzi, 2020; Asprilla et al., 2019; Macedoni and Weinberger, 2022). Moreover, we show that GVC firms, defined as those that both import and export, benefit from the same muted trade effects of TBTs as big firms, even though the two firm characteristics differ substantially in definition. However, we also marshal novel evidence that quantity control measures make it less likely that small firms will exit export markets, with the opposite effect occurring for big firms. We argue that the quantity controls are more binding for big firms, increasing their likelihood of leaving markets and, conversely, helping small firms take over their space.

Superior data and methods underpin these three contributions. We combine a panel of Colombian firm-level trade data from 2007 to 2017 with time-varying information on NTMs in regional export markets. Employing a firm-level gravity model with a difference-in-differences research design, we estimate the relative importance of NTM types controlling for unobserved confounders at the firm-product-destination level. In doing so, we address empirical limitations in the literature. This concerns, on the one hand, the use of cross-sectional data to estimate NTM impacts (e.g., Bratt, 2017; Fugazza et al., 2018). On the other hand, many studies evaluate NTMs in isolation or bundled (Disdier and Marette, 2010 or Fontagné et al., 2015), not their joint or relative effects. Moreover, drawing from Kee and Nicita (2022), we also account for the endogeneity of NTMs by predicting NTM selection based on that in neighboring countries. This approach is suitable in our context, given the cultural and legal proximity of Colombia’s regional destination markets and their similarity in introducing trade regulations.

5
# **Results**

A total of 57 documents were included in the assessment and characterization phase in Peru; 40 documents were included in Ecuador; and 25 in Bolivia. These documents were all compiled in each country’s respective database<sup>(21, 22, 23)</sup> . It is important to point out that some studies included more than one focus population in their investigation, and some used different methodological approaches for each population. In such cases, the documents were analyzed and scored separately for each population group. For example, in several baseline diagnostic assessment documents, different population groups were studied. For some populations, convenience sampling was used; in others, a probability sampling was used. For some, an adequate sample size was achieved; in others it was not. The study of each of these populations within the same document was scored individually. For this reason the number of studies exceeds the number of documents.

Initially, the distribution of the totality of the studies was analyzed, based on characteristics and quality index. Then, the studies were categorized based on the key populations—and the distribution of scores for each stratum was assessed. Finally, the studies were stratified by the type of methodological limitations encountered.

## **Types of document**

**Peru’s** database has 47 scientific articles (83%), seven technical reports (12%), and three PowerPoint (PPT) presentations (5%). **Ecuador’s** database has 18 scientific articles (45%), 16 technical reports (40%), three theses/monographs (7.5%), two PPT presentations (5%), and one poster presentation (2.5%). **Bolivia’s** database has 19 technical reports (76%) and six scientific articles (24%) (Figure 6).

**Figure 6. Type of documents compiled, by country. Andean Region; 2009**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 100%<br>90%<br>80%<br>70%<br>Poster<br>60%<br>Thesis<br>50%<br>PPT<br>40%<br>Technical report<br>30%<br>Scientific paper<br>20%<br>10%<br>0%<br>Peru n= 57 Ecuador n= 40 Bolivia n= 25<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Source:** Authors’ calculation using information from _Database and References for an Evidence-based Strategy_ in Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia.

20
# Table 1: _High Dollarization_ _<u>Countries</u>_

|Angola|2004<br>71.9|Max<br>1990-2004<br>85.0|Average<br>2000-4<br>79.1|Lao PDR|2004<br>32.5|Max<br>1990-2004<br>89.6|Average<br>2000-4<br>60.6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Argentina|3.7|73.6|29.1|Lebanon|64.9|69.2|64.6|
|Armenia|78.2|81.2|76.2|Liberia|89.7|89.7|87.8|
|Azerbaijan|79.9|84.2|81.0|Lithuania|25.1|62.7|35.0|
|Belarus|48.0|69.4|59.7|Macedonia, FYR|53.3|61.4|54.5|
|Bolivia|86.7|92.6|91.0|Maldives|61.9|61.9|53.5|
|Bosnia and Herzegovina|48.1|88.8|53.2|Moldova|44.7|50.1|47.8|
|Bulgaria|49.1|57.2|51.7|Mozambique|60.2|60.2|53.1|
|Cambodia|95.7|95.7|94.7|Nicaragua|70.3|72.1|70.7|
|China,P.R.:Hong Kong|47.8|59.6|46.1|Paraguay|50.5|66.9|57.4|
|Congo, Dem. Rep. of|86.0|86.0|67.7|Peru|68.3|73.2|69.2|
|Costa Rica|50.4|50.4|45.5|São Tomé & Príncipe|47.1|51.8|48.5|
|Croatia|61.6|73.8|67.2|Suriname|56.5|56.5|50.7|
|Djibouti|na.|68.2|56.2|Tajikistan|66.9|72.4|65.6|
|Egypt|32.7|55.6|27.7|Turkey|42.4|58.5|49.9|
|Georgia|74.3|86.1|81.8|Uruguay|87.6|88.8|86.2|
|Guinea-Bissau|na.|57.9||Vanuatu|45.3|79.3|52.7|
|Kazakhstan|43.0|60.0|51.5|Yemen, Republic of|54.5|61.2|55.9|
|Kyrgyz Republic|59.0|66.8|64.3|||||

Shows the percentage of deposits denominated in foreign currency. The criteria used to select high dollarization countries are in footnote 4. Source: Based on data in De Nicoló, Honohan and Ize, (2005); Levy-Yeyati (2006).

9
maintain a competitive currency throughout the period. In contrast, the large undervaluation in the unsustained episodes is short-lived and is substantially eroded after five years. This implies that continued undervaluation is important to maintain strong growth. Still, the unsustained episodes are able to maintain the higher _level_ of exports they achieved as a result of the export surge. There is hysteresis in the sense of export volumes not retreating after the exchange rate reverses; however, strong export growth does not persist.<sup>19</sup> Put another way, the competitive currency allows the countries to find new customers and new export products, and these new relationships survive even after the exchange rate reverts. However, once the sale is over the country no longer continues to attract new customers or augment sales to old customers at such a high rate.

The sustained episodes are also associated with sustained strong and stable GDP growth. In the unsustained episodes, GDP growth falls after the fifth year of the surge. In sum, the results suggest that sustained strong export growth requires sustained undervaluation in developing countries—at least for 12 years.

# **VII. Specific country cases**

In this section, we discuss in detail some of the specific country experiences with export surges. In particular, we look at the experiences of China and Turkey, which are often described as export-led growth. We discuss Portugal, Spain, and South Africa, where regime changes led to increased integration with the rest of world. We examine the debt crisis in the 1980s, the resulting devaluations and country experiences. And, we look at

> 19 Baldwin (1988), Baldwin and Krugman (1989), and Dixit (1989) discuss the hysteretic effect of exchange rate changes on trade and import prices in the presence of sunk costs.

23
girls in poor households bear the brunt of the crop failure shock, experiencing 0.657 standard deviations lower height for age z-scores. Boys in poor households and all children in rich households are not impacted by the crop failure shock.<sup>16</sup> _4.2 Robustness Tests: Sibling Differences Estimator, Household Production, and Rainfall Shocks_ To this point in the analysis, we have relied on regional-level measures of the shock variables that were derived from the reports produced at the time of these crises by various nongovernmental organizations or by academic authors. In this section, we use three alternative strategies to test the robustness of these results. Measuring the shock variables at the regionallevel leads to the possibility that province-specific time trends are driving the health results. While we argued earlier that the provinces across Rwanda were similar in terms of child health trends prior to the specific shocks occurring (see discussion of Table 2 and 3), we now estimate a household fixed effects or sibling differences estimator in which we control for observable and unobservable household level factors that are constant across multiple children in a given household. The sibling differences estimator compares siblings within a given household who are born before or after a shock, and identification is driven by the 1081 children in multiplechild households. Using this empirical strategy, results in Table 6 indicate that the impact of the shocks is even larger compared to the earlier tables. Controlling for household and birth cohort fixed effects, we find that siblings born after the shock, in the civil war as well as in the crop failure regions are worse off compared to their siblings born before the shock. For both types of

> 16 Unfortunately, the survey data on household asset and livestock holdings was collected in 1991, which is subsequent to the civil conflict that started in October 1990 and the crop failure in 1988, and households might have adjusted their asset holdings in response to the shocks.  To address this potential issue, we use the educational attainment of the household head as an alternative wealth measure.  Education is highly correlated with wealth but cannot change in response to these shocks as household heads have all completed their schooling.  Data on education are only available for the households surveyed in the DSA survey, reducing the regression sample size roughly in half.  Results (not shown) are consistent with those in Table 5.

16
Cross-country evidence shows that spreads over central government securities should be linked to debt and deficit (fiscal) indicators of states. For example,<sup>20</sup> Schuknecht, von Hagen, and Wolswijk (2009) concluded this for the European Union member states; and Lemmen (1999) analyzed similar issues for the subnational governments in Australia, Canada, and Germany. Poterba and Rueben (1999) found that states with tighter anti-deficit rules and authority of state legislatures can issue debt at a lower interest burden. However, somewhat counterintuitive is the case in India. Bose, Jain, and Lakshmanan (2011) indicate that the conventional deficit indicators have not been significant in determining the yield spreads during 2006–07 to 2010–11. The study, however, concludes that since the period is characterized by the prevalence of rule-based fiscal policy, it appears to have provided confidence to investors regarding states‘ commitment to fiscal discipline, and although the impact of FRLs cannot be directly determined, it cannot be undermined.

This shift in the sources and methods of state borrowing has had a bearing on the interest payments, deficits, and debts of the states. The next section presents the changing trends of states‘ fiscal deficit, debt composition, and the interest burden, and details on interstate variability in these key indicators.

# **Section 3: Trends and Composition of States’ Deficits, Debt, and Interest Burden**

An analysis of the evolution of states‘ deficit, debt, and interest burden (defined as the ratio of interest payments to current receipts) during the 1990s and 2000s reveals three distinct phases (as depicted in figure 2). The first phase, in the early to mid-1990s, was characterized by low current account and fiscal deficits, moderate debt levels, and a tolerable interest burden. The second phase, during the late-1990s to mid-2000s, was characterized by a significant deterioration in state finances, with all key deficit indicators, debt levels, and interest burden rising. The third phase, from the mid-2000s, was characterized by the onset of fiscal correction and reforms, and manifests with improvements in key fiscal indicators.

> 20 These studies are quoted in Bose, Jain, and Lakshmanan (2011).

11
(namely, less educated men and younger women) benefit more.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the context of the post-Rana Plaza reforms and international scrutiny that affected the RMG sector following the collapse. Section 6 explains the theoretical mechanisms through which these changes might affect garment workers. In section 3, we describe our data and our identification strategy, and provide evidence for its validity in section 5. Section 4 reports and discusses our main results. Section 7 concludes.

# **2 Context**

## **2.1 Employment in the garment sector**

The garment sector currently employs approximately 4 million workers in Bangladesh in over 5,000 factories. Employment in the sector has grown at an explosive yearly rate of 15.5 percent since its inception in the early 1980s, as indicated by data from the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers Exporting Association (BGMEA) in Figure 1. This growth has been fueled by migration from rural areas, and rural migrants’ lack of information appears to contribute to poor working conditions (Boudreau, Heath and McCormick, 2017). Workers are fairly mobile; by 12 months after the time of hiring, for instance, only 62 percent of all hired workers who are still working in the garment industry remain in their original factory (Heath, 2018).

## **2.2 Safety standards in the RMG sector, before and after Rana Plaza**

Before the Rana Plaza collapse, workers had protested, and some safety measures had been put in place, such as the Fire Prevention and Fire Fighting Law of 2003, the Fatal Accidents Act of 1855, the Bangladesh National Building Code of 2006, and the Labour Act of 2006. However, the effectiveness of these acts was limited; they were overall vague, narrowly defined, and lacked focus (Rahman and Moazzem, 2017). Moreover, authorities lacked technical expertise, and enforcement was weak. For instance, factory visits were pre-announced, and factories with violations found only needed to be revisited within a span of three years.

6
_- 56 -_

# **Appendix A: Data Sources and Derivations**

# Sources of Data

The data used in the econometrics came from a variety of sources. The sources are listed below with the variable(s) obtained from them. Note that when a variable is listed with more than one source, this means that different parts of the time series came from different sources or that series from a number of sources were cross referenced and reconciled. Note also that a "N" at the end of a variable's acronym indicates its nominal value. All indices use 1980 as the base year (1980=100).

For a general discussion of the sources of economic data in Egypt, see the statistical appendix in Mabro and Radwan.5g For a discussion of the evolution of the measurement of capital formation in Egypt, see Radwan.59 A more recent discussion of economic data in Egypt is available in Hansen.

The sources used were the following: Central Authority for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Statistical Yearbook, various issues.

- consumer price index, disaggregated (CPI)

- wholesale price index, disaggregated (WPI)

- WPI for domestic machinery (WPIDMACH)

- WPI for construction (WPIBLDG)

- WPI for transport equipment (WPITRANS)

- gross domestic product at factor costs (GDPN)

Central Authority for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Emplovment, Wages, and Hours of Work, various issues (1968-78).

- number of workers in the private sector

58Mabro, R. and S. Radwan, 1976, pp. 242-265.

5 The commodity flow approach used to measure capital formation in Egypt is based on data for domestic production, imports, and exports of capital goods. See Radwan, 1974, pp. 74-81.

0 Hansen, 1988.
4

**_Table 2: Composition of Employee Remuneration_**

|||_By Siz_|_e of Enterprise, 19_|_95_||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_Type of Remuneration_|_Highest_<br>_Quartile_<br>_% of Total_|_Second_<br>_Highest_<br>_Quartile_<br>_% of Total_|_Third Highest_<br>_Ouartile_<br>_% of Total_|_Bottom_<br>_Quartile_<br>_% of Total_|**_Grand_**<br>**_Total_**<br>**_(0)_**|
|Wages|70%|81%|88%|96%|74%|
|Other Monetary Payments||||||
|(Bonuses, etc.)|15%|12%|8%|2%|14%|
|**TotalMonetary Remuneration**|**85%**|**93%**|96%|**98%**|**88%**|
|Expenditures for Social Development|11%|4%|2%|1 %|9%|
|Expenditures on Social Benefits|4%|3%|2%|1%/o|3%|
|**Total Non-monetary**<br>**Remuneration**|**15%**|**7 %**|**4%**|**2 %**|12%|

_By Sectors of the Economy, 1995_

|_Type of Remuneration_|_Industry_<br>_%of_<br>_Total_|_Agriculture_<br>_%of_<br>_T'otal_|_Cons ruction_<br>_% of_<br>_Total_|_Transport_<br>_%of'_<br>_Total_|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Wages|69%|80%|78%|72%|
|Other Monetary Payments|||||
|(Bonuses, etc.)|16%|10%|12%|11%|
|**Total Monetary Remuneration**|**85%**|**90%**|**90%**|**83%**|
|Expenditures for Social Development|11%|81%0|7%|15%|
|Expenditures on Social Benefits|4%|2%|3%|2%|
|**Total Non-monetary Remuneration**|**15%**|**10%**|**10%**|**17%**|

**1** Enterprises are ranked by size of total outlays from the largest to the smallest.

_Source:_ Special compilation by the Ministry of Statistics, Republic of Belarus firms spent more than 15 percent of their total outlays for employee remuneration on nonmonetary benefits in 1995, while the quartile of enterprises comprised of the smallest firms spent only 2 percent.

12. While there is often a substantial difference in costs of provision between "social" services provided by enterprises and local governments in the forrner command economies, such differences in costs are not entirely attributable to differences in the quality of services provided. In fact, municipal cost structures may be lower in part simply because enterprise workers capture substantial rents as compared to their municipal colleagues. Several examples have been found in other CIS countries where municipal wage levels for those providing these services are a third less that those in the enterprise sector. 8

> 8 ADB Associates found that enterprise kindergarten teachers' salaries in the Kyrgyz Republic were 10% to 50% higher than those of municipal kindergarten teachers (cited in Freinkman and Starodubrovskaya, "Restructuring of Enterprise Social Assets in Russia," p.24). Bodnar et al. (p.8) report that municipal service workers (e.g., in housing maintenance) received wages that were 30% to 40% less than those of equivalent employees of Russian coal companies.
**Table 7.  Summary results of TRIST simulations for Nigeria, various simulations**

|Scenario<br>Tariffbase|EPA with<br>produ<br>(80 percent l<br>Actually<br>collected<br>tariffs|sensitive<br>ct list<br>iberalized)<br>Statutory<br>tariffs|EPA with n<br>produ<br>(100 percen<br>Actually<br>collected<br>tariffs|o sensitive<br>ct list<br>t liberalized)<br>Statutory<br>tariffs|
|---|---|---|---|---|
||Scenario 1|Scenario 2|Scenario 3|Scenario 4|
|**Total Imports [mln. US$]**|||||
|_Change_|119|243|266|403|
|_% change_|0.5%|1.1%|1.2%|1.8%|
|**Imports from EU [mln. US$]**|||||
|_Change_|638|1,222|1,285|1,884|
|_% change_|7.4%|14.6%|15.0%|22.4%|
|**Tariff Revenue [mln. US$]**|||||
|_Change_|-269|-439|-671|-910|
|_% change_|-15.9%|-21.8%|-39.6%|-45.2%|
|**Tariff and VAT revenue [mln.**<br>**US$]**|||||
|_Change_|-271|-447|-675|-921|
|_% change_|-13.5%|-19.1%|-33.6%|-39.4%|
|**Consumer Surplus [mln. US$]**|||||
|_Change_|259|416|638|828|
|**Welfare (Trade Revenue + Consu**|**mer Surplus)**|**[mln. US$]**|||
|_Change_|-12|-31|-37|-93|
|**Applied tariff rate**|||||
|_before reform_|7.5%|9.0%|7.5%|9.0%|
|_after reform_|6.3%|6.9%|4.5%|4.8%|

Source: Computed by authors based on TRIST model and database Scenario 2 simulates the impact of an EPA if statutory (those on paper) tariff rates are being applied. This is the scenario that has been typically applied in previous studies of the impact of an EPA. This scenario is relevant given that the nature and composition of tariff exemptions often change from year to year. For example, in 2007, the Nigerian government removed a large number of the tariff exemptions granted in 2006. In this case the simulated impact of the EPA increases substantially with Nigeria’s imports from the EU now increasing by almost 15 percent. This reflects that imports are lower in the baseline since tariff exemptions are removed and that a larger number of import flows from the EU are subject to tariff reductions. Trade revenue losses 17
Policy Research Working Paper 7182

# **Abstract**

Does the same question asked of the same population yield the same answer in face-to-face interviews when other parts of the questionnaire are altered? If not, what would be the implications for proxy-based poverty measurement? Relying on a randomized household survey experiment implemented in Malawi, this study finds that observationally equivalent as well as same households answer the same questions differently when interviewed with a short questionnaire versus the longer counterpart that, in a prior survey round, would have informed the prediction model for a proxy-based poverty measurement exercise. The analysis yields statistically significant differences in reporting between the short and long questionnaires across all topics and types of questions. The reporting differences result in significantly different predicted poverty rates and Gini coefficients. While the difference in predictions ranges from approximately 3 to 7 percentage points depending on the model specification, restricting the proxies to those collected prior the variation in questionnaire design, namely demographic variables from the household roster and location fixed effects, leads to same predictions in both samples. The findings emphasize the need for further methodological research, and suggest that short questionnaires designed for proxy-based poverty measurement should be piloted, prior to implementation, in parallel with the longer questionnaire from which they have evolved. The fact that at the median it took 25 minutes to complete the food and non-food consumption sections in the long questionnaire also implies that the implementation of these sections might not be as overly costly as usually assumed.

This paper is a product of the Surveys and Methods Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at tkilic@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team