# **1. Introduction**

Nearly a decade after the 2007/08 commodity-price boom triggered a global ‘rush’ for agricultural land by investors, a number of stylized facts regarding this phenomenon seem agreed. First, weak or fragmented institutions compromised countries’ ability to channel such demand towards areas where it would yield the highest returns or to reject non-viable proposals from inexperienced investors. As a result, the benefits have been less than expected and a sizeable share of investors either went out of business or failed to fully utilize all the land allocated to them. Second, although land demand retreated from 2008 levels, it is expected to continue, albeit at levels much lower than what had been observed at the height of the land rush. In fact, if guided by a coherent and enforceable policy, responsible agricultural investment could provide countries whose economy depends on agriculture with opportunities to add value and generate local benefits.

To realize these benefits, policy decisions are required on a number of issues, including (i) where in the value chain—up-stream in agro-processing, in mixed nucleus estate models with outgrowers, or fully own production—investment would be most desirable and what complementary public inputs may encourage such investment; (ii) how well land that has been transferred to investors is utilized and if not what remedial action (e.g., canceling licenses) may be needed or appropriate; and (iii) how performance compares between local producers and outside investors and what this implies for regulating the sector. Policy decisions on these as well as private investment will require regular access to up-to-date information. Yet, few countries developed the systems to regularly provide the data needed and even much of the empirical literature is still based on case studies the representativeness of which is difficult to establish, often focusing on process rather than quantification of outcomes. Lack of reliable and regular information will make it difficult to manage investment- or country- risks, enforce laws, and document compliance with global standards to attract capable and responsible (institutional) investors.

To explore ways of satisfying such information needs in a sustainable and effective way, we draw on a nationally representative large farm survey in Ethiopia conducted between 2010/11 to 2013/14. Ethiopia is an interesting case as it has a long tradition of collecting systematic data on large (state) farm performance which, due to poor data quality, were often not reported or even stopped intermittently. Data collected with an improved survey instrument allow to draw interesting conclusions on commercial farming in the country. First, even at the peak of the ‘land rush’, the amount of land transferred to investors in commercial farms that are at least partly operational, the vast majority of which was to Ethiopians rather than foreigners, was much less than claimed in some widely quoted reports (Land Matrix 2015; Oakland Institute 2011; Rulli et al. 2013). Since 2007/08, the level of annual land transfers reverted more or less to what was observed before 2007. Second, about 55% of the land transferred remains unutilized with main constraints to expansion related to technology and labor. Third, with one permanent job per 20 ha plus some temporary 2