To assess changes in overall expectations due to the invasion, respondents were asked to rank their personal situation as well as that of the country, respectively, on a scale from 1 to 10, both before and after the invasion. Figures in table 3 point towards a marked drop in both from 7.34 and 7.15 to 3.66 and 3.24, respectively and with a drop of more than 4 points in both categories, it was most dramatic in the East.

Social assistance programs including pensions emerge as a key coping mechanism with 32% having a member who received on average US$69 per month before the invasion. The share of recipients of such assistance increased by 7 percentage points to 39% during the war; albeit, with a slight decrease in the average amount received, highlighting the continuity in government functioning. This expansion was particularly pronounced in the South where the share of households with at least one social assistance recipient increased by 14 percentage points to 47%. Compared to public support, remittances were received by only 4% in 2021 and 5% in 2022, an increase driven by the South where the share of remittance recipients increased from 3% to 6%.

# **3.2 Asset ownership and factor market participation**

In terms of farm characteristics, table 4 highlights that virtually all (84%) farmers lease land at an annual lease price of about US$103.7/ha.<sup>18</sup> This is more than three times the lease price that prevailed in 2015,<sup>19</sup> suggesting that reforms that improved tradability of land and increased competitiveness of land markets significantly improved small landowners’ welfare. Across farm size groups, amounts of lease payments are the lowest (US$86/ha) in the smallest farm size group and the highest (US$117) in the more than 500 ha category.

To gauge economic prospects in agriculture, respondents were asked if they would be interested to either lease in more land at the current lease price or buy or sell land at a price they could name. In contrast to general pessimism about the future as documented above, responses point towards strong fundamentals in the agriculture sector despite the war: 85% of farmers (from 80% in the South to 87% in the Center) indicated they would like to lease more land at the current lease price; for farms above 50 ha, this share is well above 90%.

In addition to strong demand for leasing land, farmers are also eager to buy land, with 78% indicating they would like to buy land (56%, 86%, and 89% in the < 50 ha, 50-500 ha, and 500 ha group, respectively). Interestingly, the price farmers report to be willing to pay (US$1,432 per ha on average, ranging from $1,353 for those in the < 50 ha group to $1,548 in the > 500 ha group) are in a narrow band slightly above

> 18 Only farmers in the below 50 ha group pay, with US$87.7/ha, significantly lower leases. This may be attributable to greater prevalence of informal arrangements in this group or to respondents including land that has been transferred to them by the state for permanent use in the ‘leased’ category.

> 19 See <u>https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/eng_jan2022_land_monitoring.pdf; http://www.kse.org.ua/en/research-policy/land/governancemonitoring/yearbook-2016-2017/.</u>

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