rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Analyzing financial sectors in
            transition : with special reference to the Former Soviet Union
This paper proposes a framework for
            analyzing the evolution of financial sectors in economies
            transiting from command to market structures. Most
            commentators have tended to regard this
            "Transition" as an undifferentiated period to be
            traversed as rapidly as possible. In doing so they ignore
            the increasing evidence that the Transition can be an
            extended, even enduring, state of the world, resulting from
            a complex interaction of economic, political, cultural and
            psychological factors. As such, it can and does generate
            incentives which fundamentally distort the behavior of
            economic agents in unpredictable ways. The authors argue
            that one result of ignoring the true messiness of the
            Transition is that the analysis and policy recommendations
            offered to governments can be flawed and often provide
            conclusions which are odds with the reality on the ground.
            The paper discusses this concern and proposes a simple
            analytical framework both for focusing on the Transition
            itself and also for use in defining and evaluating possible
            public policy interventions for the banking sector. This
            paper is organized as follows. Section II sketches the main
            shortcomings of the traditional analyses of the financial
            sector in transition - particularly the limitations of
            current thinking on the sequencing of financial sector
            reforms. Section III introduces and elaborates on the basic
            framework proposed. Section IV uses the framework to distill
            some simple but important propositions about transition
            banking. Section V provides an initial qualitative test of
            the framework, by using it as a lens through which to view
            some of the characteristics of transition banks which we
            have observed. It shows that behavior patterns which, at
            first glance, seem curious and counterproductive, do indeed
            have a rational explanation when viewed in relation to the
            analytical framework we propose. Section VI applies the
            proposed analytical approach to assess the appropriateness
            of various interventions -- especially those which have
            proved popular in the World Bank -- to support the financial
            sector transition. Two Annexes then elaborate particular
            aspects of the analysis. Annex 1 assesses how our analysis
            might recondition thinking about the appropriate regulatory
            and supervisory structures for transition banking. Annex 2
            provides some initial empirical results based on our
            proposed framework of analysis.
Urbanization without growth : a
            not-so-uncommon phenomenon
To find out why African countries'
            experience with urbanization and sustained growth appeared
            to differ from that of other countries, the authors
            investigated the determinants of urbanization across
            countries over 40 years. Rather than studying
            individuals' decisions to migrate, they relied on
            macroeconomic data and cross-country comparisons. A central
            hypothesis of their study: that individuals move (with
            varying degrees of ease) in response to economic incentives
            and opportunities. If location incentives are distorted, so
            is growth. The authors find that urbanization levels are
            closely correlated with levels of income. But urbanization
            continues even during periods of negative growth, carried by
            its own momentum, largely a function of the level of
            urbanization. From that viewpoint, Africa's
            urbanization without growth is not a puzzle. Factors other
            than income that help predict differences in levels of
            urbanization across countries include: a) income structure;
            b) education; c) rural-urban wage differentials; d) ethnic
            tensions; and e) civil disturbances. In addition, the
            relationship between economic incentives and urbanization is
            weaker in countries with fewer civil or political liberties.
            Factors other than initial urbanization level that help
            explain the speed of urbanization include: 1) The sector
            from which income growth is derived; 2) ethnic tensions; 3)
            civil disturbances and democracy (these two slow the pace of
            urbanization if all else is constant); 4) rural-urban wage
            differentials, whether they represent an urban bias or
            simply lower productivity in agriculture relative to other
            sectors. The weak relationship that this study shows between
            urbanization and traditionally accepted migration factors
            suggests that in Africa economists are overlooking part of
            the urbanization story. The fact that the informal sector
            appears to provide a significant source of income for urban
            migrants, coupled with the overlap between rural and urban
            activities, may shed light on the nature of urbanization in Africa.
Reforming tax expenditure programs
            in Poland
Poland has recently begun reforming its
            tax program. In December 1999 it announced a gradual
            reduction in the corporate income tax rate, from 34 percent
            in 1999 to 22 percent in 2004. Value added and excise taxes
            are being harmonized with European Union directives, which
            means higher value added tax rates on unprocessed
            foodstuffs, municipal services, and construction material,
            and higher excise rates on tobacco and alcohol. The reform
            of personal income tax law has been delayed, because of
            concern about the fairness of a rate reduction for
            higher-income taxpayers and hesitation about the
            government's proposal to remove or scale down existing
            tax expenditure programs. Poland's personal income tax
            expenditure programs, introduced in 1992, have received
            growing attention as the cost of the programs has increased.
            Originally they were intended to compensate lower-income
            taxpayers for the withdrawal of price subsidies. But most of
            them are extremely regressive, benefiting higher-income
            taxpayers. Tax expenditures are reductions in tax
            liabilities that result from preferential provisions, such
            as deductions, exemptions, credits, deferrals, preferential
            tax rates, and exclusions from taxation. They are effective
            government spending channeled through the tax system,
            usually as substitutes for direct government spending to
            achieve fiscal and political objectives. The authors contend
            that strengthening the administration of Poland's tax
            expenditure programs is the first step toward making them
            effective and equitable, limiting their costs, and
            preventing the tax base from shrinking. They discuss options
            for increasing the scrutiny of the tax expenditure programs,
            defining their opportunity costs and effect on the tax
            system. Currently these programs enjoy a funding advantage
            over direct spending programs because they are not subject
            to systematic review. To limit the expansion of these
            programs and reduce their less desirable effects on the
            system, the authors suggest defining a benchmark tax
            structure, establishing sunset dates for the programs,
            forecasting their costs, and reviewing their economic
            effectiveness, efficiency, and equity by comparing them with
            direct expenditures and subsidies.
Can there be growth with equity : an
            initial assessment of land reform in South Africa
The authors use evidence from a survey
            of about 1200 beneficiaries of South African land reform to
            assess the performance of the initial phase of the land
            reform program. They find that the program has not lived up
            to the quantitative goals set, but did successfully target
            the poor. It has led to a significant number of economically
            successful projects that already generate sustainable
            revenues. These projects have involved significantly larger
            shares of poor people than less viable projects, suggesting
            that increased access to productive assets could be an
            important path to poverty reduction. Given the need to
            develop a diverse and less subsidy-dependent strategy for
            poverty reduction, suitably adapted land reform could play
            an important part in restructuring South Africa's rural
            sector. Much of this potential has yet to be realized. The
            author's analysis points toward clear lessons about
            program design: 1) Increase beneficiary awareness and
            participation. Shift from a centralized, bureaucratic
            structure designed for land distribution toward seeing
            program components as part of an integrated vision of rural
            development. This would strengthen links to other parts of
            land reform (including tenure reform), make better use of
            local synergies (including infrastructure such as housing),
            and encourage rather than stifle local initiative
            decentralized implementation mechanisms. 2) Integrate land
            redistribution into a land policy framework that strengthens
            existing property rights, especially tenure security for
            residents of communal areas. 3) Ensure transparency,
            accountability, and the participation of the private sector.
            These are essential for dispelling fears that land reform is
            just another means of political favoritism rather than an
            instrument to transform the rural sector, as is indeed
            supported by international evidence.
On "good" politicians and
            "bad" policies - social cohesion, institutions,
            and growth
Social cohesion - that is, the
            inclusiveness of a country's communities - is essential
            for generating the trust needed to implement reforms.
            Citizens have to trust that the short-term losses that
            inevitably arise from reform, will be more than offset by
            long-term gains. However, in countries divided along class
            and ethnic lines, and with weak institutions, even the
            boldest, most civic-minded and well-informed politician (or
            interest group) will face severe constraints in bringing
            about policy reform. The authors hypothesize that key
            development outcomes (particularly economic growth) are most
            likely to be associated with countries that are both
            socially cohesive and governed by effective public
            institutions. They test this hypothesis for the sample of
            countries with available data. The authors develop a
            conceptual framework based on the idea of social cohesion,
            then review the evidence on which it is based. While several
            earlier studies have shown that differences in growth rates
            among developing countries are a result of weak rule of law,
            lack of democracy, and other institutional deficiencies, the
            authors focus on the social conditions that give rise to
            these deficiencies. They also seek to establish empirically
            a causal sequence from social divisions to weak institutions
            to slow growth. The essence of their argument, supported by
            new econometric evidence, is that pro-development policies
            are comparatively rare in the developing world less because
            of the moral fiber of politicians (though that surely
            matters) than because good politicians typically lack the
            room for maneuver needed to make desired reforms. This lack
            of maneuverability is a product of insufficient social
            cohesion and weak institutions. The authors also explore the
            determinants of social cohesion, focusing on historical
            accidents, initial conditions, and natural resource
            endowments. Social cohesion should not be seen as a concern
            primarily of developing and transition economies. Indeed, it
            is important in the United Kingdom as in Ukraine, in Canada
            as in Colombia, in the Netherlands as in Australia.
How deposit insurance affects
            financial depth : a cross-country analysis
Should we expect deposit insurance to
            have a positive effect on development of the financial
            sector?  All insurance pools individual risks: premiums are
            paid into a fund from which losses are met.  In most
            circumstances, a residual claimant to the fund (typically a
            private insurance company) loses money when losses exceed
            premiums.  Claimants that underprice risk tend to go
            bankrupt.  With most deposit insurance, however, the
            residual claimant is a government agency with very different
            incentives.  If the premiums paid by member banks cannot
            cover current fund expenditures, the taxpayer makes up the
            shortfall.  Facing little threat of insolvency, there is
            less incentive for administrative agencies to price risk
            accurately.  In the United States, researchers have found
            that the combination of increasing competition in banking
            services and underpriced deposit insurance led to riskier
            banking portfolios without commensurate increases in bank
            capital.  Deposit insurance may facilitate risk-taking, with
            negative consequences for the health of the financial
            system.  On the positive side, insurance may give depositors
            increased confidence in the formal financial sector -- which
            may decrease the likelihood of bank runs and increase
            financial depth.  Indeed, simple bivariate correlations
            between explicit insurance and financial depth are positive.
            But when one also controls for income and inflation, that
            relationship disappears -- in fact, the partial correlation
            between changes in subsequent financial depth and the
            adoption of explicit insurance is negative (and quite
            pronounced).  Counterintuitive though it may be, that
            stylized fact may be partially explained by the political
            and economic factors that motivated the decision to
            establish an explicit scheme.  The circumstances surrounding
            decisions about deposit insurance are associated with
            different movements in subsequent financial depth.  Adopting
            explicit deposit insurance to counteract instability in the
            financial sector does not appear to solve the problem.  The
            typical reaction to that type of decision has been negative,
            at least with regard to financial depth in the three years
            after the program's inception.  Adopting explicit
            deposit insurance when government credibility and
            institutional development were high appears to have had a
            positive effect on financial depth.
Infrastructure project finance and
            capital flows : a new perspective
The success with which middle-income
            indebted developing countries have gained access to private
            international finance in the 1990s is a tribute to their own
            domestic economic performance, international policy in
            dealing with the debt crisis of the 1980s, and innovation in
            international financial markets.  Emphasizing the role of
            private infrastructure investment as a vehicle for
            attracting foreign capital to developing countries in the
            1990s, the authors develop an analysis model to examine what
            determines the credit-risk premium on infrastructure
            projects in the country-risk environment of developing
            countries.  They also provide tentative quantitative
            evidence of the importance of macroeconomic and
            project-specific attributes of project risk.  Their key
            finding is that the market seems to impose a high-risk
            premium on loans to countries with high inflation and to
            projects in the road sector.
Child mortality and public spending
            on health : how much does money matter
The authors use cross-national data to
            examine the impact on child (under 5) and infant mortality
            of both nonhealth (economic, cultural, and educational)
            factors and public spending on health. They come up with two
            striking findings: 1) Roughly 95 percent of cross-national
            variation in mortality can be explained by a country's
            per capita income, the distribution of income, the extent of
            women's education, the level of ethnic fragmentation,
            and the predominant religion. 2) Public spending on health
            has relatively little impact, with a coefficient that is
            numerically small and statistically insignificant at
            conventional levels. Independent variations in public
            spending explain less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the
            observed differences in mortality across countries. The
            estimates imply that for a developing country at average
            income levels, actual public spending per child death
            averted is $50,000 to $100,000. This contrasts markedly with
            a typical range of estimates for the cost-effectiveness of
            medical interventions to avert the main causes of child
            mortality of $10 to $4,000. They outline three possible
            explanations for this divergence between the actual and
            apparent potential of public spending: the allocation of
            public spending, the net impact of additional public supply,
            and public sector efficacy.
Banking on the poor Branch placement
            and nonfarm rural development in Bangladesh
The authors assess whether the placement
            of bank branches in Bangladesh responds to unexploited
            potential for nonfarm rural development.  They compare the
            branch location choices of a large new private nonprofit
            bank, the famous Grameen Bank, with those of more
            traditional government banks.  They allow for heterogeneity
            in household characteristics conducive to success in nonfarm
            activities when measuring the potential gains from switching
            out of farming.  Farmers are both poor and poorly equipped
            for success at nonfarm enterprises.  Even so, seemingly
            feasible, but unrealized gains from switching are evident.
            Grameen Bank is attracted to areas where those gains favor
            the poor.  Other banks put more weight on potential gains to nonpoor.
Water allocation mechanisms :
            principles and examples
From the earliest times, water resources
            have been allocated on the basis of social criteria
            -maintaining the community by ensuring that water is
            available for human consumption, for sanitation, and for
            food production. Societies have invested capital in
            infrastructure to maintain this allocation. Yet social
            change, including changes in (and more understanding of) how
            goods are distributed, has produced new issues in water
            allocation. Population growth has made water scarcity a
            major problem in many countries and water pollution, while
            by no means a recent problem, is more widespread than ever
            before. Traditionally the state has played a dominant role
            in managing water resources, but inefficient use of water,
            poor cost recovery for operating and maintenance expenses,
            the mounting cost of developing new water sources, and
            problems with the quality of service in agency-managed
            systems has led to a search for alternatives that make water
            allocation and management more efficient. The authors
            address some of the basic principles of treating water as an
            economic good and of allocating it among the sectors. After
            outlining the economic principles behind allocating scarce
            water resources, they review the actual means of various
            mechanisms used for allocating water, including marginal
            cost pricing, social planning, user-based allocation, and
            water markets. Giving examples from experience in several
            countries, they weigh the pros and cons of different
            approaches to water allocation, showing that no single
            approach is suitable for all situations. Clearly that state
            must play an important regulatory role, for example, but how
            effectively it does so depends on the relative political
            influence of various stakeholders and segments of society.
            User-based allocation is generally more flexible than state
            allocation, but collective action is not equally effective
            everywhere; it is most likely to emerge where there is
            strong demand for water and a history of cooperation. The
            outcome of market allocation depends on the economic value
            of water for various uses, but moving toward tradable
            property rights in water may ease the process of
            intersectoral reallocation by compensating the
            "losers" and creating incentives for efficient
            water use in all sectors.