exposure to herder-related violence is not meaningfully different between the 2018-2019 survey rounds and previous rounds. In the post-harvest season, however, we do find meaningful differences. Specifically, informal work increases more with exposure to herder-related violence in the 2018-2019 survey round when compared with other rounds. Rather, during the post-planting season, exposure to herder-related violence amid the spike in events in 2018 and 2019 led to an increase in informal work in ban states and a decrease in informal work in non-ban states. Panel (b) shows results on agricultural work where we use a binary indicator of whether an individual has worked in on-farm agriculture within the last week. The results in panel (b) essentially mirror those in panel (a). In the post-planting season, we again find that exposure to herder-related violence is not meaningfully different between the 2018-2019 survey rounds and previous rounds. In the post-harvest season, however, we do find agricultural work decreases more with exposure to herder-related violence in the 2018-2019 survey round when compared with other rounds. Moreover, during the post-planting season, exposure to herder-related violence amid the spike in events in 2018 and 2019 led to a decrease in agricultural work in ban states and a statistically insignificant average increase in agricultural work in non-ban states.

Taken together, the results shown in Figure 7 suggest that our main results shown in Figures 4, 5, and 6 operate through a “shadow of violence” mechanism. That is, shifts in labor activities are driven, at least in part, by repeated exposure to violence and the threat of increasing violence.

# **4.3 Lagged Effects**

We now investigate the lagged (i.e., harvest time) consequences of exposure to herder-related violence in the planting season on household consumption patterns, agricultural marketing choices, and non-farm enterprise sales. These outcomes explore possible mechanisms that might explain why previous research finds that exposure to conflict can lead to diminished food security (George _et al._ , 2020). Our analysis in this section requires that we restrict our data to the 2018-2019 round of data, where the variables measuring harvest use, agricultural marketing, and enterprise sales are consistently and accurately recorded and available. The use of these cross-sectional data requires a similar but slightly more restrictive identifying assumption compared to the use of our panel data in previous sections. In particular, our analysis in this section requires we assume that exposure to herder-related violence is exogenous to our outcome variables of interest within the 2018-2019 cross-section of our data, and does not allow us to account for time-invariant household-level characteristics.

Table 2 reports estimates of changes in household consumption patterns in the 2019 post-harvest season associated with exposure to herder-related violence in the previous planting season. The first two columns use a continuous measure of total household consumption, in terms of (log) naira. We find no statistically significant relationship between exposure to herder-related violence in the post-planting season and overall consumption. The exception is that when we differentiate the effect by previous violence exposure, those households that both were exposed to an HRV event in the post-planting season and with 19