# **Table 3. 2SLS Estimation with One Endogenous Variable**

|**Panel A. Second Stage**||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Year|1880||1910||1953||1982||2000|
|Taiping|-0.734***||-0.766***||-1.103***||-0.992***||-1.099***|
||[0.233]||[0.225]||[0.275]||[0.277]||[0.294]|
|Observations|798||798||798||798||798|
|R-squared|0.322||0.231||0.404||0.799||0.841|
|**Panel B. First Stage**||||||||||
|Longitude|0.039***||0.040***||0.036***||0.036***||0.037***|
||[0.006]||[0.007]||[0.007]||[0.007]||[0.008]|
|Observations|798||798||798||798||798|
|F Test|37.46||35.46||28.08||28.08||28.08|
|Number of prefectures|266||266||266||266||266|
|Control|Y||Y||Y||Y||Y|
|Cluster at Prefecture Level|Y||Y||Y||Y||Y|
|Year Fixed Effect|Y||Y||Y||Y||Y|
|Prefecture Fixed Effect|Y||Y||Y||Y||Y|
|**Panel C. Falsification test on I**|**V validity**|||||||||
|||||Land|No. of<br>|||||
||Pop1820|Pop1820|War<br>Frequency|tax per<br>mu<br>1820|Jinshi<br>1893-<br>1820|Chong|Fan|Pi|Nan|
|Longitude|0.040**|-0.003|0.001|-0.002|-0.11|-0.011|-0.004|-0.027***|-0.002|
||**[0.016]**|**[0.003]**|**[0.009]**|[0.001]|[0.341]|[0.009]|[0.006]|[0.010]|[0.009]|
|Constant|1.801|1.125**|-0.580|0.408|21.813|0.926|1.226|4.959***|0.194|
||[2.638]|[0.469]|[1.329]|[0.279]|[66.996]|[1.563]|[1.060]|[1.661]|[1.463]|
|Observations|266|266|266|266|266|266|266|266|266|
|R-squared|0.485|0.971|0.106|0.104|0.364|0.249|0.146|0.221|0.195|
|Number of prefectures|266|266|266|266|266|266|266|266|266|
|Control|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|
|Cluster at Prefecture Level|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|
|Control Pop1776|N|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|

**Note** : The sample contains the prefecture-year panel for 266 prefectures and three time periods, 1820, 1851, and one post-Rebellion year. Only the estimation results of the key variables are presented.

In Panels A and B, the time-varying control variables are the duration of treat ports, the duration of concessions and leased territories, the frequency of wars since year 1776. Also included are time dummies interacted with the following time-invariant controls: the distance to Yangzi River, to the coastline, and to the Grand Canal; the number of neighboring provinces; the pre-war level of land taxes per mu; the total number of palace graduates per million people from 1793-1820; silk and tea prefectures dummy; the four post designations classified by the Qing government in 1820.

In Panel C, the control variables include the following variables (and in case it is the dependent variable, it is excluded): the distance to Yangzi River, to the coastline, and to the Grand Canal; the number of neighboring provinces; the duration of treaty ports; the level of land taxes; the total number of palace graduates per million people from 1793-1820; silk and tea prefectures dummy; the four post designations classified by the Qing government in 1820; the frequency of wars since 1776; and population in 1776.

We obtain qualitatively similar results when using the 2SLS results with one equation with all TP variables interacted with the year dummies using the “Full-High Casualty Cities” sample, or with alternative measures of Taiping.

Standard errors are robust, clustered at the prefecture level. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 48