IKTNOouCO xIx _wh&Is_ lIn dho low-fertlity category. AUl developed ountries are in the low-fetility group.

Rcet trends in TFRs indicate remarkably little chane from the mid-1970. to the peet in Sub-Saaan Africa. Only haf a dozen countrs show declinig ferility, an equal number _owe_ ncaing fertility, **ad** the majority shows no change at all. Those with declining fetiliy **dsnc** the mid-97 are small islands (Mauritius, Seychellsc, Rdunion), recntly Joined by some counrie in EAst Africa (Botwna, Zimbabwe, Kenya). In North Africa, except in Libya, fertlity decline tuted some time in the past two decades. The Middle Eat is similar to Sub-Saharan Africa, with f.rility constat at high lovels, with a few exceptions where fertility **has** declined to intermediate keve (Bahain, Kuwait, the United Aab Emirates).

In Asia, almost all countries experienced at lest some ferdlity decline. In Latin America and te Caribbean, trends in most countries are downward, but not **as** rpidly as in Southeat Asia. both **Asia d** Latin America include countries that statd the tranition before the 1970s (e.g., Cuba **and** Taiwan), countries that started during the 1970s (e.g., Ecuador **and** Indonesia), **and** countries which have yet to stat the fertlity trition (Bolivia **and** Las). Among the more developed countries, frtdlity coninued to decline from levels aldy bdow replacen_t, or fluctuAod in a nurow renge. Vaiations in contraceptive prevalence are largely responsible for the differenca in fertiliy lovels. The data on contraceptive levels nd trends are summarized in Box 4.

The projetions of fertility extend country-specific fertility trends into the fture, unde the **goneal** sumption that each country has gone, is going, or will go through a tnition **procs** from high ferdlity to stable low fertility. Recent trends are used to define th tieming and the paco of this tranition **proces** (see the appendix). Projected fertlity departs radically from reoent trends in tW cirma . For countries with rising or stable high fertility (such as in Sub-Sabuan Africa) subsantial fertlity decline is eventually projected. And for counti with fatiliy below _replaemnt,_ a gradual return to and stabilization at replcement level is eventually projected.

Projcted fertility rtes are summarized in Table 3 for the wodrd, les developed **and** more developed oountries, and geographic regions. The world total fertility rae is projecte to decline by half a point to around 2.9 at the beginning of the 21st century and to decline an additional _0.5_ points by 2025-30. These declines of less than 1 percent annually incorporate substantial reduction in les developed countries and a stable or even rising trend for many more developed countries. For more developed countries as a whole, TFR begins to increase after 1995-2000 te a level of 2.0 by 2025. For les developed countries, in contrast, TFR will decline from 3.9 in 1985-90 to 2.5 in 2025-30, or about 1 percent annually over the whole period.

Given that fertility is not likely to decline much further in China and a few other large es developed countries, the overall reduction expected to occur in other countries will be subsantial. In Africa ad Southwest and South Asia, these projections imply that over the next 40 years or sofrom 1985-90 to 2025-30--fertility will decline to half its current level. For Africa, total fertility is projected to decline from 6.2 to 3.1. (For West Africa in particular, decline will be from 6.6 to 3.2.) In Southwet Asia, the projected fertility decline is from _5.1_ to 2.7, and for South Asia from 4.7 to 2.3.

Other world regions will experience smaller changes in fertility. East and Southeat Asia, including China, is expected to experience a fertility decline of 0.5 children per woman between 1985-90 **and** 2025-30. Since this region has 58 pecent of Asia's population, the decline for Asia a **a** whole will be modest, from 3.4 to 2.2. Decline in total fertility in Latin America ad the Caribbean will be ffom 3.6 to 2.1 children. The decline in Ooeania will be from 2.5 to 2.1 children. On the other _hand,_ North America **and** Europe will experience increses in fertility from below repacement lvels.