rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
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POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 1452

# Summary findings

The peak of the first global real estate boom was reached around 1990 in most OECD countries. Asset inflation was massive: in office markets across Europe, capital values rose 400 percent between 1980 and 1990, - accelerating after 1986 while average consumer price inflation went up only 150 percent. Property values have declined sharply since 1990, with most property markets losing at least 20 percent in nominal terms the first year of the crash's onset. Cumulative drops in capital value often reached 50 percent by the end of 1993.

This pattern of a sustained buildup, usually peaking in 1990, followed by a sharp fall in nominal values, has been encountered in most OECD markets and in several NIE countries.

Real estate booms and busts are recurring events, says Renaud, but real estate volatility on the scale and with the intensity just experienced is costly and destructive. Real resources are misallocated, and the impact on the banking system, on households, and on the economy can be lasting.

that triggered this new phenomenon of global real estate volatility. His intent: Assuming that the globalization of financial markets is irreversible, can we separate unique factors from recurring ones in this first global cycle? Can we map generic policy lessons and identify policy priorities and research agendas? Can we identify factors that accentuate real estate price and investment volatility?

Four domestic factors lay behind the unusual volatility of this first global cycle, says Renaud: the liberalization and deregulation of capital markets, a distorted incentive structure that often stimulated the use of debt, new macroeconomic tools and occasional policy errors, and the structure of the real estate sector itself.

The wide-ranging survey includes a proposal for research in certain areas, and offers some diagnosis. For example: If the global real estate crash has publicized one thing, it is the poor quality of information on real estate markets.

Renaud surveys the global real estate cycle of 198594, trying to identify domestic and international factors This paper is a product of the Financial Sector Development Department. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a joint session of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association and of the American Finance Association. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Rozzy Garner, room G8-127, extension 37670 (36 pages). May 1995.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work_ **_in_** _progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings_ **_out_** _quickly, even if the presentations are_ **_less_** _than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be used and cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are the authors'_ **_own_** _and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its Executive Board of Directors, or any of its member countries._ Produced by the Policy Research Dissemination Center
Table 8. Restrictiveness of GATS commitments, Doha offers, AFAS commitments, applied policy and Blueprint goals by country

|**Country**|**Restrictiveness**<br>**of GATS**<br>**Commitments**|**Restrictiveness**<br>**of Doha Offers**|**Restrictiveness**<br>**of AFAS**<br>**commitments**|**Restrictiveness**<br>**of applied**<br>**policy**|**Restrictiveness**<br>**of Blueprint**<br>**goals**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|BRN|89.3|89.3|65.2|No data|19.1|
|IDN|78.2|74.0|49.5|48.3|19.1|
|KHM|24.1|23.4|18.5|10.0|19.1|
|LAO|76.0|75.3|55.3|44.6|19.1|
|MMR|100.0|100.0|42.8|26.4|19.1|
|MYS|76.0|73.1|54.2|42.3|19.1|
|PHL|78.7|78.7|55.0|48.6|19.1|
|SGP|60.4|59.8|30.5|10.8|19.1|
|THA|80.4|70.0|58.5|43.8|19.1|
|VNM|38.3|38.3|36.4|36.0|19.1|

Trade rules in East Asia appear to be patchy and trade agreements remain relatively shallow. Table 9 provides an overview of the policy areas that are covered by developing East Asia countries’ trade agreements. Some of the policy areas that are covered by the WTO agreements are absent from most East Asian PTAs, including public procurement (covered by a plurilateral WTO agreement), subsidies and state trading enterprises. Since all developing East Asian economies are members of the WTO, multilateral rules apply to them. However, PTAs in other regions tend to go beyond multilateral rules in these areas, indicating that regional disciplines may be weaker in ASEAN than in other regions. Coverage of policy areas that are not regulated by the WTO, such as competition policy, intellectual property rights, movements of capital, visa and asylum, is even patchier. These gaps indicate that the trade agreements signed by developing East Asian countries are shallow relative to other regions with comparable shares of intra‐ regional trade such as North America and Europe. Initiatives such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) may help fill these regulatory gaps. But they may also risk creating regulatory fragmentation within the region and between the region and other key trading partners. This indicates the importance of ensuring “open” regionalism in East Asia, i.e. rules should aim at being non‐discriminatory or minimize their discriminatory component.

45
- Center for Disease Control (2015). Anopheles Mosquitoes. http://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/ biology/mosquitoes/'. Accessed: 2015-05-06.

- Chang, Hsiao-Han et al. (2018). The geography of malaria elimination in Bangladesh: combining data layers to estimate the spatial spread of parasites. BioRxiv, p. 421578.

- Cho, Eunjoon, Seth A Myers, and Jure Leskovec (2011). Friendship and mobility: user movement in location-based social networks. Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining. ACM, pp. 10821090.

- Climate Prediction Center (2016). Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Rainfall Estimator (RFE) for Africa. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/fews/fewsdata/africa/rfe2/geoti/.

- Cohen, Jessica and Pascaline Dupas (2010). Free distribution or cost-sharing? Evidence from a randomized malaria prevention experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pp. 145.

- Cohen, Jessica, Pascaline Dupas, and Simone Schaner (2015). Price subsidies, diagnostic tests, and targeting of malaria treatment: evidence from a randomized controlled trial. The American Economic Review 105.2, pp. 609645.

- Cohen, Justin M et al. (2013). Rapid case-based mapping of seasonal malaria transmission risk for strategic elimination planning in Swaziland. Malaria journal 12.1, p. 1.

- Cohen, Justin et al. (2012). Malaria resurgence: a systematic review and assessment of its causes. Malar J 11.1, p. 122.

- Cosner, C et al. (2009). The eects of human movement on the persistence of vector-borne diseases. Journal of theoretical biology 258.4, pp. 550560.

- Currie, Janet and Tom Vogl (2013). Early-life health and adult circumstance in developing countries. Annual Review of Economics 5.1, pp. 136.

- Cutler, David et al. (2010). Early-life malaria exposure and adult outcomes: Evidence from malaria eradication in India. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2.2, pp. 7294.

41
> : ~~~~~~~~~7

*:

# Table 3: The Evolution or Exchange Rate Arrangements in Sub-Saharan African Countries: 1976-89.

|_ExchangeRate Regime_|_1976_|_1980_|_1963_|_1989_|_1991_|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Pegged to a Single Currency|77.7|63.4|53.5|51.2|45.7|
|US Dollar|25.0-|19.5|14.0|12.8|10.9|
|French Franc|36.0|34.2|30.2|35.9|30.4|
|Other Currencies|16.7|9.7|9.3|_2.5_|_4.3_|
|Pegged to a Composite of Currencies|19.5|31.7|37.2|30.8|23.9|
|Limited Flexibility|2.8|0.0|- 2.::|0.0|0.0|
|More Flexible Arrngements|0.u|4.9|6.9|17.9|30A.|
|Adjusted According to a Set of Indicators|0.0|0.0|0.0|2 5|6.5|
|other Managed Floating|0.0|4.9|6.9|7.7|10.9|
|Independently Floating|0.0|0.0|0.0|7.7|13.0|
|Toial (percentage)|100.0|100.0|100.0|100.0|100.0|
|More flth One Rate for Imports andlor<br>Exports|11.1|12.2|20.9|12.8|10.9|

SOURCE: IMF, Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (various issues)
28 It is always true that producer prices are highest if a firm extracts strictly the margin APC<sup>Icafé</sup> . This is only, however, a measure of market power if the assumption of CRS is maintained. In that case, equations (4) and (6) together imply: _Proposition 2:_ _For as long as APC_<sup>_Icafé_</sup> _= MPC if ( p*p*R ) > 0, then it must be true that pp < VMP._

# <u>Proof</u>

(6) Substituting (4), this becomes p* - APC<sup>Icafé</sup> (=MPC) - pp (= VMP) > 0 If APC<sup>Icafé</sup> =MPC , then this is rewritten as p* - MPC - pp > 0 This can only be true if the output price has not exhausted the marginal value products of the inputs. Since the processing margin is exactly MPC, this implies that pp<VMP. � Therefore, under the assumptions that APC<sup>Icafé</sup> = MPC, the measure (p*p*R ) is a measure of market power as it measures deviations from marginal cost pricing. If the * assumption of CRS were to be maintained for the analysis, then (p*p R ) always uniquely measures market power.

Maintaining the assumption of CRS, however, is unrealistically (and, it will be seen, unnecessarily) restrictive for Costa Rica. Interview data consistently indicated that mills struggle to obtain their _‘punto de equilibro’_ , their cost-minimizing scale due to the competition for cherries described in the previous section. This is confirmed by a cost study of the Costa Rica milling sector over five years (1988-1993) , where it was estimated that only 31% of mills operate at the cost-minimizing point of their long run average cost curves, whilst 56% of mills in Costa Rica operate at a point like CC in Figure 6, on the IRS portion of their long run average processing cost curve (Mosheim 2002). Relaxing the assumption of CRS implies that the mill-specific * variable (p*p R ) measures either its inefficiency, when this is measured by deviations from their cost-minimising point of operation (scale inefficiency), or market power, or * both. Given this ambiguity, (p*p R ) will simply be called the ‘mark-down’ measure.

The mark-down measure (p*p*R ) can be understood simply as a variation of the familiar identification problem from the market power literature reviewed in Section III: Returning to Figure 6, consider a measure (p*p*R ) that is equal to (c-b).<sup>28</sup> A measure equal to (c-b) either measures market power if the mill/exporter is operating

> 28 * Recall that (p* - _p R_ ) is equivalent to (c-b) due to _Proposition 1_ .
11 decompose total income growth and the total number of people exiting poverty into that realized by people making the transition to (or staying in) the rural areas (further split into its agricultural and non‐ agricultural sectors), to secondary towns, or to cities (Table 2).

This decomposition analysis is interesting from an analytical and a policy perspective. It shows that moves to the city led to large income increases and poverty decreases on average more for those who made the move. However, even in the presence of larger migration premiums from moving to the more distant cities, most people engage in the surrounding nonfarm economy or move to secondary towns. Thus moves to secondary towns make up a much larger share of total growth and poverty reduction than moves to cities.

Other emerging country and cross‐country evidence confirms the relevance of the composition of urbanization for poverty reduction. Recent econometric findings from India, for example, using satellite observations of night lights as measure of urban growth, show that growth of secondary towns has a larger direct and indirect effect on rural poverty than does big city growth (Datt, Gibson, Murgai and Ravallion, 2016). Similarly, and directly accounting for growth linkages and foreign trade as well as internal migration and agglomeration effects in an economywide dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model for Ethiopia, Dorosh and Thurlow show that a 10 percentage point reallocation of public investment from cities (and rural areas) to towns leads to faster poverty reduction than when reallocating public investment from towns (and rural areas) to cities<sup>5</sup> , though the latter yields faster overall growth. Applied to Uganda, on the other hand, where rural areas are already more diversified, public investment shifts towards cities also yielded faster poverty reduction, underscoring the importance of context specificity. Importantly though, in these simulations, public investment is taken away from both towns and the rural area and reallocated to the cities, while it is in fact the reallocation

> 5 Cities are defined here as centers housing more than 250,000 inhabitants (of which there were three at the time in each country: Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa and Harar in Ethiopia; Kampala, Entebbe and Mukono in Uganda).
for downgrading of skills, for density e¤ects and adjusting for employment rates and for the short-run capital adjustment. Section 6 concludes the paper.

# 2 Model

We construct an aggregate model of the economy to examine the long-run wage e¤ects using data from 1990 and 2000 national censuses on migration and native non-migrant labor force by education level. The analysis builds on two di¤erent strands of the literature. The ...rst strand aims at identifying the impact of immigration on national labor markets while the second analyzes the external e¤ects of individual schooling on overall productivity. In this context, international migrations have two essential long-run e¤ects. The ...rst is to change the schooling composition of the sending and receiving economy. The second is to introduce in the host countries workers with a di¤erent skill sets from natives and, hence, even for given education, not perfect substitutes with them. These two aspects imply that the size and the educational composition of immigrants and emigrants relative to the non-migrants are the crucial factors in determining the long-run domestic wage e¤ects of international migration patterns.

## 2.1 Aggregate production function

The prevalent model adopted in this literature is based on a production function where the labor aggregate is represented as a nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function of di¤erent types of workers. In the production function (we omit country subscripts for simplicity), we assume that at time t output (Yt) is produced in a country according to a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with two factors, physical capital (Kt), and labor in e¢ ciency units (Qt): The term A<sup>e</sup> t represents the total factor productivity (TFP), and � is the income share of labor.

Assuming that physical capital is internationally mobile and that each single country is too small to a¤ect the global capital markets, the returns to physical capital are equalized across countries. If R<sup>�</sup> denotes the international net rate of return to capital, the following arbitrage condition implicitly de...nes the equilibrium capital-to-labor ratio in the economy: The above condition holds in the short and in the long run in a small open economy. However, even in a closed economy as in Ramsey (1926) (or Solow 1951) condition (2) holds in the long-run balanced growth path, with R<sup>�</sup> being a function of the inter-temporal discount rate of individuals (or of the savings rate)<sup>4</sup> . Hence in the long-run we can substitute this

> 4As long as immigration does not change the saving rate of an economy the pre- and post- migration R� are identical.

5
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36
**Figure 4:  Generation Capacity and Income 1980**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Generation capacity and Income 1980<br>0.8<br>0.7<br>0.6<br>0.5<br>0.4<br>0.3<br>0.2<br>0.1<br>0<br>0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000<br>Per capita GDP<br>capacity<br>Percapita generation<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: US Energy Information Agency and World Bank Development Indicators The outlier in the bottom right is Ecuador- as it was again in 2001. In 2001, only 55% of the population had access to mains electricity, even though the country is Latin America’s largest oil exporter.

**Figure 5:  Generation Capacity and Income in 2000**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Generation Capacity and Income 2000<br>1.6<br>1.4<br>1.2<br>1<br>0.8<br>0.6<br>0.4<br>0.2<br>0<br>0.00 5,000.00 10,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00<br>Per capita GDP<br>Capacity<br>Per Capita Generation<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: US Energy Information Agency and World Bank Development Indicators The country at the top left of Figure 5 is Paraguay. It is a major exporter of hydropower, and meets 25% and 40% respectively of Brazil and Argentina’s electricity 22
The final set of intermediate outcomes and mechanisms are examined in Table 8. We start by examining whether women change the amount of time they are devoting to their business. The qualitative work suggested this might be the case, as evidenced by this quote from one participant “Then I used to open [my business] any time I wished...I would open much later...but these days it’s better since I constantly open at nine and close at night at around eight. Those days I just used to do a little work, I could not stay for long. Whenever I got some money to pay for my merry-goround, then I would just close my business for the day. Also, then if I got someone who was buying five bags of maize, then I could just close business and leave for home, but these days I stay until I am convinced that it’s time to leave.” (ICRW, 2015). This qualitative finding does not show up in the one year horizon, but is there over three years for both mentoring and training alone, with women working 4 hours more per week.

The training was intended to also increase the confidence of women in their ability to perform business tasks. We measure entrepreneurial self-efficacy through 10 questions that measure the owner’s confidence in their ability to perform key business activities such as coming up with ideas for new products, sell a product to a customer they are meeting for the first time, and persuade a bank to lend them money for their business. The mean control group individual is very confident in their ability to do 4.5 out of these 10 tasks, and Column 2 shows that we find no significant effect of training on self-efficacy. We also ask eleven questions intended to measure the types of attitudes that Get Ahead tries to encourage. These include willingness to take risks to get ahead in business, planning for the future, feeling confident that one can find solutions to problems that arise, and keeping your eyes open for ways to improve the business. These are scored on a 5-point scale, where 5 indicates the most agreement. The mean score across these questions is 3.8 for the pure control group. Column 3 shows no significant effect of treatment on these.

The training also emphasized and encouraged cooperating with other women in the marketplace. The remaining columns of Table 8 examine aspects of this. Columns 4, 5, and 6 consider membership of women’s associations, discussing business with other women in the market, and working together with other women to obtain bulk discounts or to purchase goods together. We find no significant treatment effects on any of these measures over the one-year horizon, but do find treated individuals to be more likely to belong to associations and discuss business with others over the three-year horizon. Despite the hope of the trainers that treated women would band 21