members would slightly decline by 2 percent, although, actual trade would probably decrease by more as the incentive to re-export (or smuggle) European goods is reduced.<sup>11</sup>

**Table 6. Scenario 1 (80 percent liberalized): Top 30 Most Affected Import Categories**

||Total Import|Change|EUImpo|rt Change|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Sector(ISIC-3 digits)|thousand<br>|%<br>|thousand<br>|% change|
|101 - Mining andAgglomerationof Hard Coal|~~US$~~<br>16|~~h~~<br>3.8%|~~US$~~<br>16|4.0%|
|342 - Bodies ( Coachwork)for Motor Vehicles;'Trailers and Semi-trailers|419|2.1%|1,274|10.2%|
|272 - BasicPrecious andNon-ferrousMetals|10,441|1.8%|35,215|12.2%|
|171 -Spinning,Weaving andFinishing of Textiles|558|1.7%|1,914|9.7%|
|152 – DairyProducts|9,118|1.4%|31,420|6.6%|
|242 -OtherChemical Products|13,734|1.2%|65,601|14.4%|
|131 - Mining of ironores|15|1.2%|15|1.2%|
|132 - Mining of non-ferrousmetalores, except uraniumand thoriumores|2|1.0%|2|1.4%|
|155– Beverages|1,285|0.9%|1,825|2.5%|
|20- Forestry,logging andrelated activities|83|0.9%|273|7.8%|
|341 - Motor Vehicles|12,661|0.8%|62,126|10.5%|
|351 - Building andrepairing ofships and boats|3,030|0.8%|10,038|4.8%|
|154 -Other FoodProducts|2,784|0.6%|8,149|3.6%|
|11 -Growing ofcrops andhorticulture|9,243|0.6%|98,286|28.6%|
|271 - BasicIronand Steel|8,367|0.6%|46,888|9.6%|
|210- PaperandPaper Products|3,309|0.6%|16,377|8.6%|
|232 - refined petroleumproducts|3,496|0.6%|14,469|5.6%|
|151 - Production, Processing and Preservation of Meat, Fish, Fruit,<br><br><br><br>|5,618|0.6%|28,572|8.7%|
|~~V~~<br>~~bl~~<br>~~Oil~~<br>~~d F~~<br>241 - Basic Chemicals|14,056|0.6%|90,287|11.4%|
|252 - PlasticsProducts|1,273|0.6%|7,116|10.2%|
|142 - Mining and Quarryingn.e.c.|203|0.5%|548|6.3%|
|313- insulatedwire and cable|257|0.4%|1,763|6.2%|
|323 - television and radio receivers, sound or video recording or<br><br><br><br><br><br>|2,318|0.4%|6,478|1.3%|
|~~d~~<br>~~i~~<br>~~d~~<br>~~i~~<br>~~d~~<br>~~d~~<br>141 -Quarrying ofStone, Sand and Clay|56|0.4%|116|1.4%|
|322 -televisionandradio transmitters and apparatusfor line telephony|1,675|0.3%|10,763|4.6%|
|12 - Farming of Animals|10|0.3%|12|3.0%|
|311 - ElectricMotors, Generators andTransformers|2,395|0.3%|14,742|4.1%|
|312 -electricity distributionand controlapparatus|421|0.3%|2,604|4.4%|
|243– man-madefibres|166|0.3%|1,157|15.2%|
|352 - railway and tramwaylocomotives androlling stock|11|0.3%|48|16.9%|

Source: Computed by authors based on TRIST model and database Table 6 reports the simulated effects of an EPA on total imports and imports from the EU for the 30 most affected categories. For most sectors, the estimated impact on total imports would be less than one percent. Among the sectors with substantial imports, the biggest import changes would be expected for basic precious and non-ferrous metals (1.8 percent), dairy (1.4 percent) and chemical products (1.2 percent). Motor vehicles imports would also increase by 0.8 percent. For most sectors, the change in imports from the EU is much larger. Most of this comes at the

> 11  On the other hand, given that high barriers are the main determinants of smuggling into Nigeria, and that those barriers would likely be excluded from the EPA liberalization schedules, the impact of an EPA on smuggling activities may be relatively small.

14