SPECmAL Topic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALrY lKv Table S4, contlnued

||U|nder-five|mortatit<br>r|y<br>ateIn pe|riod|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Predictor|1°90-95|1995-00|2000-05|2005-10|2010-15|
|Constant<br>HIV|0.104<br>(0.000<br>0.004<br>(0.000|<br>0.092<br>) (0.000<br>0.003<br>) (0.000|0.080<br>) (0.000<br>0.003<br>) (0.000|0.068<br>) (0.000<br>0.002<br>) Co.000|<br>0.054<br>) (0.000)<br>0.000<br>) (0.000)|
|R2|0.99|0.99|0.99|0.99|0.99|

# _Procedures_

The regression equations estimated above were incorporated into the World Bank's standard procedures for projecting mortality (Bulatao and Bos, 1989a). The procedures were modified as follows: first, the level and pattern of mortality is projected under no-AIDS circumstances, and appropriate Coale-Demeny model life tables are selected. Using adult HIV prevalence in 1990 and an estimated starting year of the epidemic, HIV prevalence in future years is calculated with the regressions in Table S3. Next, years of life expectancy lost due to AIDS mortality of children and adults is calculated with the regressions in Table S4. Finally, the number of years lost, expressed as Coale-Demeny model life table levels, is subtracted from the projected no-AIDS trends until 2020-25, after which mortality recovers gradually to the projected level in 2050 under a no-AIDS situation.

# _Results_

The estimated impact of AIDS on demographic indicators will be presented for all SubSahara African countries combined and the impact of AIDS on total population will be giv=n for individual countries. Figure S2 shows projected population and Figure S3 the population growth rate for 1985-2020, comparing the revised World Bank projections that incorporate AIDS mortality and previous projections without AIDS mortality, which are otherwise identical. The difference in the number of people is hardly discernable before the end of this decade, but keeps growing and reaches 49 milion in 2020. The difference in the growth rate is at most 0.15 percent. The differences are not only due to AIDS mortality, but also to fewer births resulting from fewer women of reproductive age. The contrast between the AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios is much more pronounced for life expectancy (Figure S4), which immediately shows a lower rate of increase and a divergence of as much as 3.5 years. Figure S5 shows the number of deaths due to AIDS, added to deaths from other causes. At its peak, AIDS adds 1.3 million deaths annually to the 9.5 million deaths from other causes. Long-term implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are shown in Figures S6 and S7. Life expectancy is assumed to recover fully to the no-AIDS levels by 2050; total population, will, _ceterisparibus,_ never catch-up with the population projected in the no-AIDS scenario. Such long-term projections are, of course, much more dependent on the assumptions made regarding the future course of the epidemic and the effectiveness of interventions than are projections for the short-term.

Table S5 shows the percentage difference in projected population in AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios for aUl countries of Sub-Saharan Africa for 2000, 2020, and 2050. The mean difference in 2000 is 0.8 percent, in 2020, 3.2 percent, and in 2050, 5.2 percent.