infrastructure and alternative tourist eco-destinations – other than animal sightings - to provide visitors with richer and more varied experience. And a third prong would seek to improve institutional capabilities, the business climate, transport (including airport)<sup>111</sup> infrastructure, telecommunications, human capital and entrepreneurial skills so to enable local urban and rural businesses to multiply and to take advantage of linkages from the tourism sector most of which currently leak abroad.<sup>112</sup> Even if such a strategy could be speedily and seamlessly implemented, the benefits in the form of higher growth rates and employment opportunities are likely to accrue gradually. The tourism business is highly competitive, the options for upgrading are limited and many of the jobs (housekeeping, groundskeepers, trackers, food preparation, guides, security, laundry, etc.) are of the low-end variety. Tanzanian experience indicates that the overall job multiplier is low: a trebling of the tourism sector between 2000 and 2012 only resulted in a doubling of the number of jobs (World Bank 2015).<sup>113</sup> Moreover, the experience of some of the smaller, resource poor islands in the Caribbean suggests, that even where a country can attract high spending, long haul tourists by offering them a unique upscale experience with excellent service to boot, there are limits to which the tourist sector alone can drive growth and push per capita GDP. This increases the urgency of developing other tradable services, many of a niche variety that are linked with tourism (e.g. environmental or water resource management; techniques for revitalizing depleted soils<sup>114</sup> or regenerating forests) that will be in big demand and could collectively contribute substantially to future export earnings.

Raising the quality (and volume) of human capital is the key to upgrading and diversifying tradable services and raising productivity. It is inevitably a slow process subject to continuing dilution through out-migration of the most talented and enterprising if local opportunities are scarce.<sup>115</sup> Thus, supply push must be

> 111 Public spending on transport infrastructure was identified by Giap, Gopalan and Ye (2016) as a driver of tourism in Malaysia. www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/4/1/3/pdf. In the African context see the AfDB Tourism Monitor (2016) - <u>https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/Africa_Tourism_Monitor_</u> ’ – – <u>_Unlocking_Africa s_Tourism_Potential_ _Vol_3_ _Issue_1.pdf</u>

112 The ILO attaches a lot of significance to capturing the linkages that emanate from tourism and using them to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. http://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-- <u>ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_480824/lang en/index.htm</u> 113 <u>http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/716911468305677763/Tanzania-economicupdate-the-elephant-in-the-room-unlocking-the-potential-of-the-tourism-industry-for-Tanzanians;</u> nevertheless, for increasingly services intensive economies, tourism is likely to be a more fertile source of jobs than many other industries including business services where employment opportunities are going to be whittled away by automation and the advances in AI. See Turner and Sears (2013) for an optimistic take.

<u>http://www3.weforum.org/docs/TTCR/2013/TTCR_Chapter1.5_2013.pdf</u> 114 Reganold and Glover (2016) <u>http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v314/n5/full/scientificamerican0516-66.html</u> 115 The study by Christian et al (2011) of the tourism value chain underscores workforce training with attention to soft skills; hence the need for local training institutions and skilled trainers, local or foreign. http://www.cggc.duke.edu/pdfs/2011-11-11_CGGC_Tourism-Global-Value-Chain.pdf 35