|**D**<br>**(lowest)**|<br>No single institution in charge of monitoring<br>and different undocumented methodologies<br>are used for available data; or<br><br>No information on large parts of the country;<br>or|52|39|
|---|---|---|---|
||<br>Only outdated data are available|||

_Note_ : Assessment of methodological robustness was based on a review of end-2014 data and associated methodologies.

At an aggregate level, the headline statistic of 65 million forcibly displaced persons is an estimate, and the data are the least robust for IDPs (who represent the bulk of the forcibly displaced and the largest part of the recent growth in numbers). Based on existing data, it is not possible to assess how close it may be from the actual situation on the ground, nor whether it provides an over- or an under-evaluation. In the absence of accurate data, existing figures provide the only source to determine orders of magnitudes, relative numbers, and trends. They may provide important insights into the forced displacement crisis, but they ought to be taken with a great degree of caution. Data users should be aware of their limitations and of the corresponding error margins.

# **E. Key data required for development policy and programming**

Conflict-induced forced displacement is increasingly being recognized as a development issue by both humanitarian and development actors. Forced displacement poses significant challenges to achieving the SDGs and the Bank’s own goals of eradicating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. Displaced people are often (though not always) more likely to be poor than non-displaced people and they also have unique vulnerabilities that are impediments to achieving higher incomes. Additionally, the burden of hosting displaced populations is overwhelmingly carried by developing countries, which can undermine their efforts to reduce poverty and promote development. In particular, sudden inflows of displaced people can create short-term disequilibria across a number of markets (including the labor market), and place additional strain on infrastructure and local services such as education, health, solid waste management, water services and urban transport. The presence of displaced populations can also increase the risks of conflict diffusion, instability, and further displacement.

Traditional responses that focus only on the immediate needs of the newly displaced or on durable solutions are often inadequate. Given the protracted nature of many forced displacement situations and the limited immediate prospects for durable solutions for most displaced people, short term humanitarian responses are insufficient. Even the achievement of one of the three durable solutions does not automatically eliminate the vulnerabilities associated with having been forcibly displacement. In particular, many returnees continue to face impediments to their sustainable reintegration in countries/places of origin. There are also significant, varied and long-term impacts of forced displacement (both positive and negative) on host countries and communities that need to be understood and managed. A development engagement, anchored in a medium to longer-term perspective, can therefore complement a humanitarian engagement throughout the entire period of a forced displacement situation.

Currently, there is a very weak link between the collection of forced displacement statistics and the analysis required to inform an effective development response.<sup>95</sup> For development actors, several analytical questions may be considered, such as:

> 95 A development response to forced displacement may encompass several elements including: (a) policy adjustments to encourage greater inclusion of displaced populations within mainstream economic and social development processes; (b) medium-term interventions to lessen the dependency of displaced populations on humanitarian assistance and mitigate tensions between displaced people and their host communities; (c) support to mitigate the potential negative socio-economic impacts of refugee and IDP populations on host communities and to maximize the social-economic benefits; (d) support to mitigate any negative macroeconomic and financial impacts of forced displacement on host countries and to enhance positive impacts on the economy over the longer term; (e) support to