rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Finances of Egyptian listed firms
            and the performance of the Egyptian stock exchange
This paper analyzes the finances of
            Egypt's listed firms and the performance of the
            Egyptian stock exchange during the period 2003-07/08.
            Egyptian companies can be clearly divided into a top tier
            and a second tier. Egypt's top tier of listed firms
            tends to finance themselves mainly from operating cash
            flows, trade credits, and other short-term borrowing. This
            raises questions as to whether recent performance could have
            been even better had these firms done more in the way of
            long-term financing and long-term investment. This issue is
            even starker for a large second tier of much smaller firms.
            Regarding the stock market, the analysis finds that the
            Egyptian Exchange has experienced extraordinary market
            capitalization growth fueled by strong price increases.
            Market activity has been increasing as well, but reached
            expected levels only recently. Despite strong improvement,
            however, many companies remain illiquid. In its ability to
            raise capital, Egypt seems to do well, but privatizations
            and relatively low gross fixed capital formation might
            distort this picture.
Equilibrium fictions : a cognitive
            approach to societal rigidity
This paper assesses the role of ideas in
            economic change, combining economic and historical analysis
            with insights from psychology, sociology and anthropology.
            Belief systems shape the system of categories
            ("pre-confirmatory bias") and perceptions
            (confirmatory bias), and are themselves constrained by
            fundamental values. The authors illustrate the model using
            the historical construction of racial categories. Given the
            post-Reformation fundamental belief that all men had rights,
            colonial powers after the 15th century constructed
            ideologies that the colonized groups they exploited were
            naturally inferior, and gave these beliefs precedence over
            other aspects of belief systems. Historical work finds that
            doctrines of race came into their own in the colonies that
            became the United States after, not before, slavery; that
            out of the "scandal of empire" in India emerged a
            "race theory that cast Britons and Indians in a
            relationship of absolute difference"; and that
            arguments used by the settlers in Australia to justify their
            policies toward the Aborigines entailed in effect the
            expulsion of the Aborigines from the human race. Racial
            ideology shaped categories and perceptions in ways that the
            authors show can give rise to equilibrium fictions. In the
            framework of this paper, technology, contacts with the
            outside world, and changes in power and wealth matter not
            just directly but because they can lead to changes in ideology.
Trade openness reduces growth
            volatility when countries are well diversified
This paper addresses the mechanisms by
            which trade openness affects growth volatility. Using a
            diverse set of export diversification indicators, it
            presents strong evidence pointing to an important role for
            export diversification in reducing the effect of trade
            openness on growth volatility. The authors also identify
            positive thresholds for product diversification at which the
            effect of openness on volatility changes sign. The effect is
            shown to be positive only for a minority of countries with
            highly concentrated export baskets. This result is shown to
            be robust to both explicit accounting for endogeneity as
            well as the inclusion of a host of additional controls.
'Red flags of corruption'
            in world bank projects : an analysis of infrastructure contracts
"Red flags" are indicators of
            potential issues regarding governance failure, collusion or
            corruption in projects. While some specific red flags can be
            powerful indicators of issues to be addressed, the
            hypothesis of this paper is that many proposed red flags are
            potentially too ubiquitous and randomly distributed to be
            useful as indicators of significant governance failure. The
            paper examines project documentation from a small sample of
            World Bank water and sanitation projects in an attempt to
            collect data on the presence or absence of 13 commonly
            accepted red flags. This paper finds that: (i) almost every
            contract reviewed raised at least one of 13 red flags
            analyzed; (ii) potentially tainted contracts did not exhibit
            notably more red flags than control contracts; and (iii) the
            occurrence of multiple red flags in the same contract was
            rare enough to suggest that joint occurrence was largely by
            chance, not as a result of a strongly causal
            inter-relationship between flags. The ubiquity and apparent
            randomness of these red flags suggests that their roll-out
            as a monitoring tool requires additional thought as to
            interpretation, context and use. The paper examines an
            alternate tool for uncovering potential problem projects --
            supplier concentration. Across a very small sample, there
            does appear to be a relationship between such concentration
            and potential problem projects.
Using mixed methods in monitoring
            and evaluation : experiences from international development
This paper provides an overview of the
            various ways in which mixing qualitative and quantitative
            methods could add value to monitoring and evaluating
            development projects.  In particular it examines how
            qualitative methods could address some of the limitations of
            randomized trials and other quantitative impact evaluation
            methods; it also explores the importance of examining
            "process" in addition to "impact",
            distinguishing design from implementation failures, and the
            value of mixed methods in the real-time monitoring of
            projects. It concludes by suggesting topics for future
            research -- including the use of mixed methods in
            constructing counterfactuals, and in conducting reasonable
            evaluations within severe time and budget constraints.
Undervaluation through foreign
            reserve accumulation : static losses, dynamic gains
This paper shows that real exchange rate
            undervaluation through the accumulation of foreign reserves
            may improve welfare in economies with learning-by-investing
            externalities that arise disproportionately from the
            tradable sector. In the presence of targeting problems or
            when policy choices are restricted by multilateral
            agreements, first-best policies such as subsidies to capital
            accumulation, or subsidies to tradable production are not
            feasible. A neo-mercantilist policy of foreign reserve
            accumulation "outsources" the targeting problem or
            overcomes the multilateral restrictions by providing loans
            to foreigners that can only be used to buy up domestic
            tradable goods. This raises the relative price of tradable
            versus non-tradable goods (i.e. undervalues the real
            exchange rate) at the static cost of temporarily reducing
            tradable absorption in the domestic economy. However, since
            the tradable sector generates greater learning-by-investing
            externalities, it leads to dynamic gains in the form of
            higher growth. The net welfare effects of reserve
            accumulation depend on the balance between the static losses
            from lower tradable absorption versus the dynamic gains from
            higher growth.
Measuring monetary policy in open economies
The paper extends Bernanke and
            Mihov's [6] closed-economy strategy for identification
            of monetary policy shocks to open-economy settings,
            accounting for the simultaneity between interest-rate and
            exchange-rate innovations. The methodology allows a separate
            treatment of two distinct monetary policy shocks, one that
            operates through open market operations, and another one
            that takes place through interventions in the foreign
            exchange market. Implementation of this strategy to the case
            of Argentina provides the stylized facts necessary to choose
            among competing theoretical models of this economy. In
            addition to studying the effects of monetary policy
            innovations, the present study sheds light on the endogenous
            component of monetary policy. In this regard, the paper
            finds that, notwithstanding the relative stability of the
            exchange rate and the accumulation of large amounts of
            international reserves, the central bank in Argentina has
            been far from absorbing balance of payments shocks in a
            currency-board fashion. The growing level of international
            reserves can be rationalized, instead, as the monetary
            authority's response to terms of trade, supply and
            domestic currency demand shocks.
Aid for trade : do countries that
            need it, get it
This paper is designed to help both the
            beneficiary governments and donors of aid-for-trade identify
            countries that are under-performing in trade and which are
            receiving less aid for trade than their global performance
            might otherwise suggest is necessary. The authors develop
            ten measures of trade performance and capacity (including
            trade-related infrastructure, institutions, and incentives)
            to assess potential demand, and then look at country
            allocations of aid for trade to see which are receiving
            below-average amounts in the supply of aid for trade -
            relative to their potential demand. As they design national
            development strategies, countries may wish to consider
            giving greater attention to trade and requesting that donors
            allocate more aid for trade.  As part of the analysis, the
            paper provides a conceptual framework for selecting
            indicators of trade performance and its policy determinants
            that the World Trade Organization and its partners might
            monitor closely as part of the aid for trade initiative.
Enterprise recovery following
            natural disasters
Using data from surveys of enterprises
            in Sri Lanka after the December 2004 tsunami, the authors
            undertake the first microeconomic study of the recovery of
            the private firms in a developing country following a major
            natural disaster. Disaster recovery in low-income countries
            is characterized by the prevalence of relief aid rather than
            of insurance payments; the data show this distinction has
            important consequences. The data indicate that aid provided
            directly to households correlates reasonably well with
            reported losses of household assets, but is uncorrelated
            with reported losses of business assets. Business recovery
            is found to be slower than commonly assumed, with
            disaster-affected enterprises lagging behind unaffected
            comparable firms more than three years after the disaster.
            Using data from random cash grants provided by the project,
            the paper shows that direct aid is more important in the
            recovery of enterprises operating in the retail sector than
            for those operating in the manufacturing and service sectors.
Accommodating migration to promote
            adaptation to climate change
This paper explains how climate change
            may increase future migration, and which risks are
            associated with such migration. It also examines how some of
            this migration may enhance the capacity of communities to
            adapt to climate change. Climate change is likely to result
            in some increase above baseline rates of migration in the
            next 40 years. Most of this migration will occur within
            developing countries. There is little reason to think that
            such migration will increase the risk of violent conflict.
            Not all movements in response to climate change will have
            negative outcomes for the people that move, or the places
            they come from and go to. Migration, a proven development
            strategy, can increase the capacity of communities to adapt
            to climate change. The fewer choices people have about
            moving, however, the less likely it is that the outcomes of
            that movement will be positive. Involuntary resettlement
            should be a last resort. Many of the most dire risks arising
            from climate-motivated migration can be avoided through
            careful policy. Policy responses to minimize the risks
            associated with migration in response to climate change, and
            to maximize migrations contribution to adaptive capacity
            include: ensuring that migrants have the same rights and
            opportunities as host communities; reducing the costs of
            moving money and people between areas of origin and
            destination; facilitating mutual understanding among
            migrants and host communities; clarifying property rights
            where they are contested; ensuring that efforts to assist
            migrants include host communities; and strengthening
            regional and international emergency response systems.
Poverty lines across the world :
            Poverty lines across the world
National poverty lines vary greatly
            across the world, from under $1 per person per day to over
            $40 (at 2005 purchasing power parity). What accounts for
            these huge differences, and can they be understood within a
            common global definition of poverty? For all except the
            poorest countries, the absolute, nutrition-based, poverty
            lines found in practice tend to behave more like relative
            lines, in that they are higher for richer countries.
            Prevailing methods of setting absolute lines allow ample
            scope for such relativity, even when nutritional norms are
            common across countries. Both macro data on poverty lines
            across the world and micro data on subjective perceptions of
            poverty are consistent with a weak form of relativity that
            combines absolute consumption needs with social-inclusion
            needs that are positive for the poorest but rise with a
            countrys mean consumption. The strong form of relativism
            favored by some developed countries -- whereby the line is
            set at a fixed proportion of the mean -- emerges as the
            limiting case for very rich countries.
Universal minimum old age pensions :
            impact on poverty and fiscal cost in 18 Latin American countries
Alleviating poverty for the elderly
            requires a different approach from other age groups, and a
            minimum pension is likely to be the only viable option. This
            paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal
            cost of universal minimum old age pensions in 18 Latin
            American countries using recent household survey data. First
            the authors measure old age poverty rates for these
            countries. Then they discuss the design of minimum pensions
            schemes -- means-tested or not -- as well as the
            disincentives they introduce for the economic and social
            behavior of households including labor supply, saving and
            family solidarity. Finally, the authors use household survey
            data to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty
            rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18
            countries. They show that a universal minimum pension would
            substantially reduce poverty among the elderly (except in
            Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension
            systems already exist and poverty rates are low). Such
            schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives,
            spillover effects and administrative simplicity, but they
            have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age
            at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the
            generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and
            the fiscal capacity of the country.
Trade crisis and recovery :
            restructuring of global value chains
The recent large and rapid slowdown in
            economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid
            declines in international trade. As world trade is set to
            rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will
            trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world
            economic growth rebounds? (ii) Will the crisis result in a
            change in the structure of trade, and in particular will it
            lead to a reversal of the pattern of more diversified
            sourcing and thus to a consolidation of global value chains?
            (iii) What policies can improve the prospects for developing
            country growth in the event that trade volumes do not
            rebound symmetrically and there is a consolidation of some
            global value chains?
Health, demographic transition and
            economic growth
This paper develops a link between four
            central components of the demographic transition: survival
            rates; fertility decisions; altruistic intergenerational
            transfers from workers toward their parents; and economic
            growth. An increase in child survival is found to reduce the
            fertility rate and altruistic transfers, and thereby
            increase the savings rate and the productivity growth rate.
            The analysis illustrates the key role of child health in the
            demographic transition.
Fiscal adjustment and growth in
            Sub-Saharan Africa : overview and lessons from the current downturn
In light of the proliferation of
            exceptionally large fiscal stimuli to ward off the recession
            triggered by the 2008 global economic and financial crisis
            in most advanced economies, this paper revisits the fiscal
            adjustment and growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using
            transfer functions, it quantifies expected losses in terms
            of aggregate output largely attributed to a systematic
            implementation of pro-cyclical expenditure switching and
            reducing policies to achieve low deficit targets throughout
            the decades of adjustments. The results consistently
            highlight a much higher predicted aggregate output under the
            hypothesized counter-cyclical fiscal expansion option. This
            consistent outcome suggests that the output gap would have
            been significantly smaller in the region if countries had
            drawn on stop-and-go policies of fiscal expansion to
            sustainably raise the stock of capital investments.
The effects of domestic climate
            change measures on international competitiveness
Under the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized
            countries (called Annex I countries) have to reduce their
            combined emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels in the
            first commitment period of 2008-12. Efforts to reduce
            emissions to meet Kyoto targets and beyond have raised
            issues of competitiveness in countries that are implementing
            these policies, as well as fear of leakage of
            carbon-intensive industries to non-implementing countries.
            This has also led to proposals for tariff or border tax
            adjustments to offset any adverse impact of capping carbon
            dioxide emissions. This paper examines the implications of
            climate change policies such as carbon tax and energy
            efficiency standards on competitiveness across industries,
            as well as issues related to leakage, if any, of
            carbon-intensive industries to developing countries.
            Although competitiveness issues have been much debated in
            the context of carbon taxation policies, the study finds no
            evidence that the energy intensive industries
            competitiveness is affected by carbon taxes. In fact, the
            analysis suggests that exports of most energy-intensive
            industries increase when a carbon tax is imposed by the
            exporting countries, or by both importing and exporting
            countries. This finding gives credence to the initial
            assumption that recycling the taxes back to the
            energy-intensive industries by means of subsidies and
            exemptions may be overcompensating for the disadvantage to
            those industries. There is, however, no conclusive evidence
            that supports relocation (leakage) of carbon-intensive
            industries to developing countries due to stringent climate
            change policies.
Trade and migration with renewable
            natural resources : out-of-steady-state dynamics
Commodity price increases associated
            with the entry of China, India, and other countries into the
            world economy have led to increased pressure on
            common-property renewable natural resources. The problem is
            particularly worrisome for economies that obtain a large
            share of their income from the exploitation of natural
            resources in the production of an exportable commodity. This
            paper contributes to the analysis by examining the issue in
            the framework of a general equilibrium dynamic model and by
            solving for both the steady state and the transition
            dynamics. The authors show that i) a resource-rich,
            capital-poor economy is more likely to be subject to a
            "natural resource curse" and complete
            (irreversible) depletion of natural resources; ii) the
            latter's likelihood rises with the relative commodity
            price and labor inflow; iii) a labor inflow under internal
            equilibrium results in a higher steady-state capital-labor
            ratio and manufacturing output, and unchanged natural
            resources and commodity output; iv) import and export taxes
            result in larger steady-state natural resources and
            commodity output and smaller capital stock and manufacturing
            output, and may prevent complete depletion of natural
            resources; and v) the latter may also be prevented through
            capital inflows (foreign aid), labor outflow (
            liberalization of the North's immigration policy),
            improved regulation, technical change, and a production tax.