resources, the flora and fauna.<sup>105</sup> Natural capital is a vital asset for African countries. The forest, hydrologic, soil, flora and fauna<sup>106</sup> are major sources of livelihood and significant development opportunity. The UNEP estimates that 70 percent of the population of SSA depends for at least some of their livelihood on forests and woodlands. Forests contribute about 4 per cent of GDP in Uganda – or as much as $136 million annually.<sup>107</sup> However, as the East African population grows and the economies develop, the natural capital is being imperiled by urbanization and poorly designed land development. This is degrading land and pushing many species to the point of extinction (Karanja 2016).<sup>108</sup> Animal populations are also threatened by the depredations of poachers; and the whole region will be affected by ongoing climate change.<sup>109</sup> In addition, rising tourist numbers can take a toll on natural capital and only careful management will allow East Africa to preserve its assets.

The prospects of the sector will be determined by economic conditions in East Africa’s major tourist catchment areas in Europe and the success in attracting more tourists from other regions, particularly East Asia. If the current trend rates of increase in tourist arrivals persist or grow,<sup>110</sup> the landlocked East African countries could aim to increase local spending by each visitor and take advantage of spillovers that incentivize domestic manufacturing and services. This would require a threepronged effort starting with an intensification of marketing in Europe and other potential markets that enhances, differentiates and repositions the brand image of the likes of Uganda. A second prong would comprise investment in local transport 105 On the role and importance of natural capital, see: Helm (2014) <u>http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/30/1/109.short; HSBC Global Research, Natural Capital</u> (2013). www.hsbc.com/~/media/hsbc-com/about-hsbc/in.../0301214- **<u>natural</u>** - **<u>capital;</u>** World Bank (2015) http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/environment/brief/environmental-economics- <u>natural-capital-accounting; Atkinson (2015)</u> - <u>https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/516948/ncc discussion-paper-economic-growth-natural-capital.pdf</u>

> 106 Elephants are a tourist attraction par excellence. Big game is what draws the high-end tourist. Were their numbers to dwindle, a significant segment of the tourist market would be lost. Karanja (2016) writes that “In just over 20 years, Africa’s lion population has declined by half, and today only 20,000 lions are left on the continent. Africa’s elephants, which numbered 1.3 million in the 1970s, have also declined by more than half. Giraffe numbers are also falling, dropping from 140,000 giraffes

in 1999 to fewer than 80,000 individuals today”. <u>https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/canafrica-strike-a-balance-between-conservation-and-economic-growth/. In Uganda and Rwanda, small</u> and remotely located mountain gorilla populations are a magnet for tourists of an intrepid sort.

> 107 UNEP (2015) <u>http://web.unep.org/sites/all/themes/Amcen6/AMCEN15Docs/AMCEN-15-3%20%20e-pdf.pdf</u>

> 108 <u>https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/can-africa-strike-a-balance-between-conservationand-economic-growth/</u>

> 109 <u>http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-threatens-east-africas-food-security16947; Adhikari et al (2015) http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fes3.61/full</u>

> 110 Hard times induce tourists to travel shorter distances and to go by road rather than fly to distant resort areas.

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