Table 5 focuses on the probability of food crisis, a more severe form of food insecurity. Unlike the food stress estimates, most provinces (22 out of 34) show a relatively low average probability of food crisis, with rates below 10%, covering over 21 million people. However, four provinces stand out with crisis probabilities over 30%, affecting a combined population of over 2.5 million. This points to concentrated areas of acute food insecurity where immediate interventions may be needed to build resilience and prevent further deterioration.

# **Table 5: Probability of Food Crisis across Provinces in Afghanistan**

|Table 5 shows the average probability of food crisis o<br>ranges of 0.1. The columns provide a demographic bre<br>exposure to relative risks. The majority of administra<br>four hotspots with a combined population of 2.5 milli<br> <br>|ver the full study perio<br>akdown of the provinc<br>tive areas are in the lo<br>on where crisis risks ha|d across Afghan pro<br>ial statistics to under<br>wer risk ranges of u<br>ve averaged over 30|vinces, broken down into<br>stand overall population<br>nder 10%, but there are<br>%.|
|---|---|---|---|
|**Probability of food crisis**<br>**Number of Province**|**Female Population**|**Male Population**|**Total Population**|
|0-0.1<br>22|10,677,500|11,070,559|21,748,059|
|0.11-0.2<br>6|3,243,391|3,358,709|6,602,100|
|0.21-0.3<br>2|577,507|598,622|1,176,129|
|0.31 and above<br>4|1,244,143|1,298,729|2,542,872|

The maps in Figures 4 and 5 visually represent the spatial variation in food stress and crisis probabilities across Afghan provinces.

The first map shows the probability of food stress, measured on a scale from 0.364 to 0.743. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities of food stress. The provinces with the highest risk of food stress are concentrated in the central and northern regions, with provinces like Ghor and Badakhshan showing probabilities above 70%. This highlights a significant regional disparity in food stress risks, where some areas consistently face moderate food insecurity. The western provinces such as Nimroz and Hilmand, in contrast, show lower probabilities of food stress, which may reflect differences in agricultural productivity and access to markets, as captured by our models.

The second map focuses on the probability of food crisis, with probabilities ranging from 0 to 0.547. Similar to food stress, darker shades indicate higher risks of food crisis. The provinces most at risk are Ghor and Badakhshan, where the probability of a food crisis is notably elevated, reaching around 55%. These provinces appear to be food insecurity hotspots, where chronic vulnerability may be exacerbated by climatic shocks or economic disruptions due to conflict. The majority of other provinces show relatively low probabilities of food crisis, under 20%, but the existence of a few highrisk provinces raises concerns about concentrated humanitarian needs.

The maps reveal an important contrast between food stress and food crisis. While food stress risks are widespread, affecting many provinces at high levels, food crisis risks are more localized, with only a few provinces showing significant probabilities. This spatial clustering suggests that while many regions experience moderate food insecurity, a smaller subset of provinces faces acute crises, requiring targeted interventions. Provinces like Ghor and Badakhshan stand out in both maps, indicating persistent and severe food security challenges that may require longer-term strategies to address structural vulnerabilities.

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