> SPECLAL TOPIC 1: PROJECmNG AIDS MORTALrrY bxi

|Table_S5._Percenta<br>scenarios|ge differ|ence in|population, AI|DS an|d no-AI|DS|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|2000|2020|2050|2|000|2020|2050|
|Angola<br>0.2<br>Benin<br>1.2<br> <br>|1.6<br>6.0<br>|3.5<br>8.6<br>|Malawi<br>Mali<br>|2.0<br>0.1<br>|7.8<br>1.2<br>|12.3<br>2.8<br>|
|Botswana<br>0.1<br>|0.8<br>|1.2<br>|Mauritania<br>|0.3<br>|1.7<br>|3.9<br>|
|Burkina Faso0.5<br> <br>|3.0<br>|5.2<br>|Mauritius<br>|0.0<br>|0.4<br>|0.9<br>|
|Burundi<br>1.9<br> <br>|7.1<br>|10.8<br>|Mozambique<br>|1.2<br>|4.5<br>|7.2<br>|
|Cameroon<br>0.3<br> <br>|2.1<br>|3.5<br>|Namibia<br>|0.5<br>|2.3<br>|3.1<br>|
|Cape Verde<br>0.4<br>|1.7<br>|2.3<br>|Niger<br>|0.2<br>|1.6<br>|3.8<br>|
|Centr. Af. R. 2.0<br> <br>|7.4<br>|10.4<br>|Nigeria<br>|0.3<br>|1.6<br>|2.6<br>|
|Chad<br>0.0<br> <br>|0.6<br>|2.0<br>|Reunion<br>|0.0<br>|0.0<br>|0.0<br>|
|Comoros<br>0.0<br> <br>|0.0<br>|0.0<br>|Rwanda<br>|1.9<br>|7.5<br>|12.1<br>|
|Congo<br>1.3<br> <br>|4.7<br>|7.3<br>|SaoTome<br>|0.0<br>|0.0<br>|0.0<br>|
|Cote Dllvoire<br>1.7<br> <br>|6.2<br>|9.3<br>|Senegal<br>|0.1<br>|1.6<br>|3.1<br>|
|DJibouti<br>0.3<br> <br>|1.8<br>|3.6<br>|Seychelles<br>|0.0<br>|0.0<br>|0.0<br>|
|Eq. Guinea<br>0.4<br> <br>|1.9<br>|3.2<br>|Sierra Leone<br>|0.3<br>|1.8<br>|3.6<br>|
|Ethiopia<br>0.2<br> <br>|1.4<br>|3.2<br>|Somalia<br>|0.8<br>|3.7<br>|7.0<br>|
|Gabon<br>0.3<br> <br>|1.7<br>|4.0<br>|South Africa<br>|0.1<br>|0.6<br>|0.8<br>|
|Ganbia<br>0.4<br> <br>|2.6<br>|5.1<br>|Sudan<br>|0.3<br>|2.1<br>|3.9<br>|
|Ghana<br>0.2<br> <br>|1.4<br>|2.6<br>|Swazitand<br>|0.1<br>|1.0<br>|1.9<br>|
|Guinea<br>0.2<br>|1.7<br>|3.8<br>|Tanzania<br>|1.7<br>|6.8<br>|10.6<br>|
|Guinea-Bissau 2.1<br> <br>|7.6<br>|11.1<br>|Togo<br>|0.4<br>|2.4<br>|4.3<br>|
|Kenya<br>0.7<br> <br>|3.6<br>|5.7<br>|Uganda<br>|2.6<br>|10.0<br>|14.9<br>|
|Lesotho<br>0.0<br> <br>|0.3<br>|0.8<br>|Zaire<br>|1.1<br>|4.6<br>|7.0<br>|
|LIberia<br>0.4<br> <br>|1.9<br>|2.9<br>|Zambfa<br>|4.7<br>|14.9<br>|20.6<br>|
|Madagascar<br>0.1|0.8|1.7|Zimbabwe|2.8|7.6|9.1|

# Conclusions

While the impact of AIDS on population _could_ certainly be more severe than shown here, especially if various conditions conducive to the spread of HIV would prevail, the results indicate that even in severely affected countries population growth is likely to continue at high levels. Short-term effects were shown to reverse gains made in life expectancy over the past decades and to increase the crude death rate, but not to an extent that population growth is reduced by more than 0.5 percent in the countries with the highest infection levels.

It must be stressed that many parameter estimates for model variables are based partly on conjecture rather than on empirical data. While the model has been used to effectively simulate the spread of the epidemic from its start in the early 1970s to the presence (See, e.g. World Bank, forthcoming), there is no guarantee that the same parameters will hold in the future. Further uncertainty is introduced by the unknowable future course of the epidemic, which in this analysis is assumed to be drastically reduced after 2005. As with most projections, the short-term effects are accompanied by much less uncertainty than the longer range projections. In the case of HIV/AIDS, with its long incubation period, mortality in the next several years is mostly the result from infections that occurred in the past 10 or so years. If an estimate of HIV prevalence is available, projections of mortality from AIDS should be quite reliable. The more difficult part is clearly projecting the spread of HIV, as this is subject to behavior that does not lend itself to easy inquiry.