Current climate variability informs the design of risk management and adaptation measures. The threat of more frequent extreme events caused by future climate change is also well integrated. Regional forecasting and early warning as provided by the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) help to ensure development progress. Although no information is included on the temporal distribution of rainfall over the wet season, _e.g._ , on-set and duration of rainfall, the probabilistic rainfall information serves as rough orientation for agricultural production potential. Finally, a concept was developed to integrate disaster risk management into the district planning process. This project is a good example on how to integrate a long-term perspective to vulnerability reduction. Drawing on the successful Búzi example, disaster risk management was also implemented in the districts of Caia, Chemba (both Sofala) and Govuro (Inhambane). Concern was however expressed by a GTZ representative that personal resources, organizational capacity and available financial means largely restrict the extension to other areas.

Several lessons learnt from these three examples can be formulated. Forecasts and early warnings are vital to prepare for emergencies and reduce climate vulnerability. In addition, open source information bears a high potential to strengthen the national data network and decision support system. Success of climate adaptation interventions is influenced by the changing dynamics of climate vulnerability and there are several opportunities to evaluate and monitor adaptation interventions. Indicators for the success of the Zambézi Smallholder project could include for example the productivity of the natural and technological resources, the total agricultural production and market accessibility. Another option to assess the Búzi project would be to consider improvements in disaster risk management at local scale and changes in district area planning. Changes of recovery costs could further indicate advances in disaster risk management at regional level.

To further seize potentials of development assistance to bridge remaining gaps, the status of adaptation initiatives could be explored at various levels, _e.g._ , national, governmental and nongovernmental. For example, coastal zone development has a great potential to contribute to vulnerability reduction in face of more severe future cyclone activity and flooding. Enhancing the resilience of natural ecosystems, _e.g._ , mangroves and coral reefs, may offer a way to progress development in coastal zones. For this, specific adaptation components as for example the coastal development initiatives by the World Bank and Denmark could help to meet the full adaptation potential.

Long-term adaptation in agriculture is crucial to shift out of climate-sensitive practices. Agricultural production can be designed as flood resistant under current climate, but may not be efficiently maintained with aggravating future rainfall intensity or cyclone activities. Entry points may be developed based on the traditional agricultural production system, which involves for example cultivating crops at different distance to rivers. In this traditional system, a cultivated low-lying area in vicinity to a river provides suitable water access during droughts, while flood protection is achieved in up hill areas. Agricultural research could provide further strategic adaptation options through transferring the agricultural system to less water demanding crops and livestock in drought prone areas.

In addition to direct climate effects on agricultural production, climate-related diseases or outmigration can reduce the available labor force in a given area. Hence, interventions to transfer rural poor out of the predominant agricultural sector into skilled off-farm labor are important to sustain livelihoods in the term (Jayne et al., 2003). To support this long-term goal, climate robust incentives to agriculture could generate rural purchasing power, which may stimulate growth in 13