**Annex ‐ Table 4 ‐ SSA: Fiscal Regression for Model C**

|**_Dependent variable_**|||**Real GDP**|**Central**<br>**African**<br> **per capita**|**Cote**||||||**Real**|**GDPper c**|**apita**||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**Benin**|**Botswana**|**Cameroo**|**n**<br>**Rep. **|**d'Ivoire**|**Ethiopia**|**Gabon**|**Gambia**|**Ghana**|**Kenya**|**Mozambiqu**|**e**<br>**Nigeria**|**Rwanda**|**Senegal**|
||_Column 1_|_Column 2_|_Column 3_|<br>_Column 4 _|_Column 5_|_Column 6 _|_Column 7_|_Column 8_|_Column 9_|_Column 10_|<br>_Column 11_|_Column 12_|_Column 1_|_3 Column 14_|
|Constant|6.747<br>(2.042)*|‐18.476<br>(‐13.276)*|6.706<br>**(6.066)***|22.847<br> (11.286)**|17.56<br>*(17.996)*|5.76<br>**|18.977<br>(13.14)**|8.301<br>* (9.432)**|2.391<br>* (5.527)**|7.523<br>* (2.821)**|‐11.998<br>(‐2.015)*|1.791<br>(0.247)|1.711<br>(0.714)|10.431<br>(1.863)*|
|Government investment<br>expenditure per capita (in|||||||||||||||
|constant US$)|0.038<br>(0.155)|‐1.363<br>(‐2.2)**|‐6.388<br>(‐1.634)|0.51<br>(0.859)|1.013<br>(1.91)*|0.589|1.595<br>(3.746)**|‐0.248<br>* (‐0.607)|‐0.015<br>(‐0.138)|0.082<br>(0.197)|‐0.485<br>(‐2.264)**|0.18<br>(0.291)|2.754<br>(3.227)***|0.333<br> (0.512)|
|Government other expenditures|||||||||||||||
|per capita (in constant US$)|‐0.015<br>(‐0.093)|‐0.347<br>(‐2.199)**|0.146<br> (0.782)|‐0.128<br>(‐0.639)|‐0.055<br>(‐0.437)|0.184|‐0.121<br>(‐1.445)|‐0.289<br>(‐1.445)|0.036<br>(0.365)|‐0.024<br>(‐0.102)|‐0.533<br>(‐2.877)***|0.003<br>(0.02)|‐0.188<br>(‐0.416)|‐0.164<br>(‐0.623)|
|Net lending per capita (in|||||||||||||||
|constant US$)|0.001<br>(0.887)|‐0.002<br>(‐1.758)*|‐0.002<br>(‐1.353)|0.002<br>(1.057)|‐0.001<br>(‐0.614)|0.01|‐0.001<br>(‐0.609)|‐0.005<br>(‐1.775)*|‐0.001<br>(‐1.859)*|0.002<br>(1.259)|‐0.001<br>(‐0.674)|‐0.008<br>(‐1.557)|‐0.001<br>(‐0.193)|‐0.003<br>(‐2.518)**|
|Private investment (in GDP)|0.064<br>(2.807)**|0.173<br>(3.107)***|0.421<br> (12.184)**|0.064<br>*(1.272)|0.08<br>(3.911)**|0.032<br>*|0.05<br>(1.49)|0.133<br>(2.539)**|0.004<br> (0.768)|0.055<br>(1.719)|‐0.007<br>(‐1.05)|0.076<br>(1.168)|0.03<br>(0.404)|0.039<br>(1.115)|
|Log of labor force|0.34<br>(1.543)|2.042<br>(17.328)**|0.112<br>* (2.046)*|‐0.792<br>(‐5.989)**|‐0.347<br>*(‐5.588)*|0.058<br>**|‐0.362<br>(‐3.671)**|‐0.058<br>*(‐0.731)|0.736<br>(24.104)*|0.148<br>**(0.927)|1.714<br>(4.57)***|0.476<br>(1.131)|0.602<br>(3.335)***|0.121<br> (0.333)|
|AR(1)|0.856<br>(10.031)**|0.374<br>* (1.46)|0.437<br>(1.555)|0.657<br>(1.796)*|‐0.297<br>(‐1.188)|0.313|0.109<br>(0.422)|0.264<br>(1.079)|‐0.24<br>(‐0.609)|0.785<br>(3.37)***|0.671<br>(4.462)***|0.722<br>(3.541)***|0.946<br> (25.318)**|0.884<br>* (5.136)***|
|MA(1)|0.172<br>(0.656)|0.997<br>(5.004)|‐0.919<br>(‐8.767)|‐0.213<br>(‐0.442)|0.948<br>(9.381)|1.759|0.932<br>(5.921)|0.404<br>(1.229)|0.765<br>(2.755)|0.414<br>(1.591)|0.921<br>(5.97)|0.562<br>(2.827)|‐0.942<br>(‐10.817)|‐0.101<br>(‐0.331)|
|**Adjusted R2**|0.952956|0.996597|0.981711|0.936008|0.933477|0.882833|0.831786|0.649206|0.996525|0.765194|0.976362|0.840804|0.787611|0.827123|

The estimation technique is ARIMA. t‐statistics are given in paranthesis.*** stands for 1% significance level, ** 5% significance level, and * 10% significance level. AR(1) is autoregressive variable. MA(1) is moving average variable.

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