manufacturing sector which is associated with a higher share of jobs in exports (Figure 8, right panel). In Poland, for instance, shares increased from 19 to over 34 percent; in other words, over a third of the workforce is now supported by Poland’s exports. By contrast, the share of employment in exports stagnated in Cyprus and across many commodity-exporting countries, including in Canada, New Zealand, Chile, Colombia, Norway, and Indonesia. The latter is driven by declines after the commodity boom of the 2000s. Overall, employment growth in exports exceeded employment growth sustained by domestic demand between 1995 and 2018 (Figure 9).

**Figure 9: Export-driven vs. domestic demand-driven employment growth, 1995-2018 (CAGR)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Export-driven vs. domestic demand-driven employment growth 1995-2018 (CAGR)<br>SAU<br>ISR LUX<br>CYP COLNZLIDN CHLAUS CRIZAF ARG<br>CAN MLT IRL<br>FINUSANORSWEBELGBR NLDKORCHEINDISL TURBRA ESPMEX<br>EST RUSCHNDNKITA FRA AUT<br>DEU<br>SVN SVK PRTHUNJPN GRC<br>CZE HRV POL<br>LTU LVA<br>BGR<br>ROU<br>-2 0 2 4 6<br>Employment growth sustained by exports (%)<br>EAP ECA LAC MENA<br>NA SA SSA y=x<br>R-squared= 0.12<br>4<br>2<br>0<br>-2<br>Employment growth sustained by domestic demand (%)<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Winkler, Aguilar-Luna, Kruse and Maliszewska (2023). Data: OECD TiE data, covering 51 countries and 45 sectors for the period 19952018. The country sample covers 38 OECD countries plus 13 non-OECD countries. The red line indicates employment growth in exports equals employment growth sustained by domestic demand.

# 3.2 In which countries and sectors are jobs in exports created?

Until the global financial crisis the number of jobs in exports increased strongly in emerging markets, dominated by jobs linked to manufacturing exports, but have started to decline since. Figure 10 plots the development of employment in exports for the sample of 51 countries by broad sector over the period 1995-2018, differentiating between high-income (top left panel) and LMICs (right panel) using the 1995 income categorization (see Appendix 8). In the sample of emerging countries, the number of jobs in exports increased from 177 million to 310 million between 1995 and 2007. This compares with total employment expanding from 1,343 million to 1,642 million over the same period in these countries. China and India alone added over 80 million and 30 million jobs in exports, respectively (bottom left and right panels). The number of jobs in manufacturing exports almost doubled from 107 million to 210 million over this period, representing an increase from 60 to 67 percent of the total, and driven in large part by China and India. However, jobs in exports dropped strongly in 2009 and continued to decline hovering around 255 million jobs between 2016 and 2018. Jobs linked to agriculture and mining exports combined now represent 9 percent of the total in emerging markets, while employment sustained by business services exports makes up over 27 percent. Here, China and India differ strongly, with India’s share of jobs in business services exports representing 36 percent in 2018, while China’s share makes up less than 20 percent.

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