exposure probabilities at various food insecurity levels supports these types of indicators and methods that monitor food security transparently and frequently in countries like Afghanistan.

The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 discusses the country context and related literature. Section 3 introduces the data. Section 4 presents the modeling framework. Section 5 outlines key findings. Section 6 discusses implications, and Section 7 concludes.

# 2. Background and Literature Review

## 2.1. Food Security Challenges in Afghanistan

Afghanistan faces challenges in achieving food security due to its terrain, varied climatic conditions, and socio-economic vulnerabilities. Over the past decades, the country has experienced a series of climatic and weather shocks—including prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and flooding—that have impacted agricultural productivity and food availability. These disruptions have been compounded by poverty, limited market access, and ongoing conflict, creating a web of factors contributing to food insecurity and economic instability.

Research indicates that both droughts and floods are major drivers of food insecurity in Afghanistan. The World Bank (2019) reported that approximately 45% of the Afghan population was moderately food insecure in 2016, a figure that has worsened in subsequent years, now exceeding 80% (IPC, 2023), due to climatic events and the economic disruption caused by the political events of 2021. In 2018, a severe drought further intensified food insecurity, particularly in rural areas dependent on agriculture for livelihoods. This event reduced cereal yields, pushing many households to crisis levels of food insecurity and triggering large-scale humanitarian interventions. Oskorouchi et al. (2021) and Yolchi et al. (2024), using cross-sectional surveys, show that flooding also has significant negative effects on food security. Additionally, Omerkhil et al. (2020) highlight that smallholder farmers are especially vulnerable to climate change, with those in hilly regions at higher risk than those in plains, and both groups showing low adaptive capacity.

Further studies point to the increasing severity and frequency of droughts in Afghanistan, predicting more severe droughts in the future (Qutbudin et al., 2019). Khalily (2022) notes declining yields for crops such as wheat, rice, and corn due to intensified droughts linked to climate change. Jawid and Khadjavi (2019) emphasize the lack of adaptation support for Afghan farmers, while Přívara and Přívarová (2019) highlight the compounding effects of climate change on the country's environmental and socio-economic landscape, increasing vulnerability to displacement, conflicts, and food insecurity.

While the literature underscores Afghanistan’s vulnerability to climate-induced food insecurity, questions remain about whether these food security shocks are sporadic or indicative of deeper structural vulnerabilities. It is uncertain how building agricultural resilience could provide a sustainable, long-term solution to chronic food insecurity.

## 2.2. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Food Security

Climate change threatens progress toward eradicating hunger through both direct agricultural productivity shocks and indirect socio-economic effects. Direct shocks limit crop productivity and 4