INTRODUCTION Xlil

# 2035. In Northern America, fertility is at 2 children per woman, i.e., just below replacement level.

Europe (including the former U.S.S.R. republics) is the only continent where aggregate fertility is currently below replacement, Ie., where women are not having enough children to replace themselves. Recent trends in some countries of Europe show small increases in fertnity, and the projections assume that the TFR will recover to replacement level by 2030. Europe is also the continent with the most homogeneous fertility levels: with the exception of four of the former Soviet republics that have TFRs above 3, fertlUty in the other 41 countries varies in a narrow range between 1.5 and 2.8.

Another measure sometimes used to examine fertility trends is the crude birth rate, a rate that is not adjusted for the age structure of the population. The 1992 crude birth rate for the world as a whole is 25.7 births per thousand population and is projected to decline to 22.2 by the turn of the century, and decline further to 17.8 by 2025. In MDCs, the 1992 crude birth rate is 14.3 while the rate in LDCS is 29.0. Crude birth rates are projected to decrease to 18.6 in LDCs and to 12.2 in MDCs by 2025.

# _Mortiy_

Mortality levels in all continents have decreased in the past decade, continuing a long-term trend towards longer life. Life expectancy at birth, a measure constructed from current age-specific mortality rates applied to a cohort born this year, is estimated at 66 years for the world in 1992, with male levels at 64.5 years and female levels at 67.0 years. Life expectancy Is 12 years lower in LDCs than in MDCs. Projected mortality trends for individual countries are based on current levels and recent trends, with faster increases in life expectancy projected in countries with lower life expancies and those with rapid recent increases (see _Data and Methods)._ Life expectancy is projected to reach 70 years for the world as a whole in approximately 2010. However, differences between regions are expected to remain important, and even increase in some cases. Sub-Saharan Africa is only projected to reach a life expectancy of 60 years by 2020, and South Asia is not projected to reach 70 years until approximately 2025. On the other hand, more developed regions, are projected to attain life expectancies of 80 years around 2015.

On the African continent, the lowest regional lfe expectancies are found in East and West Africa where combined (male and female) life expectancy at birth is only 52 and 50 years, respectively. Since the 1970s, life expectancy in East and West Africa has increased by about 6 years. Further increases are expected because of continued progress in socioeconomic development and health interventions; however, in East Africa especially, overall life expectancy will increase only gradually because of increasing mortality from AIDS. In some countries where the HIV/AIDS epidemic has spread widely, such as Uganda, Malawi, and Zambia, projections indicate a reversal of recent gains in life expectancy (see _Special Topic 1)._ North Africa has considerably better mortality conditions, with combined life expectancy of just over 60.

South Asia has the worst mortality conditions of the Asian subregions, but improvement has been quite rapid since the mid 1970s, with life expectancy increasing from 49 to 59 years currently. Life expectancy in Southwest Asia is near the world's average, while East and Southeast Asia is wellabove that at 70 years. East and Southeast Asia contains some of the countries (Japan, Hong Kong) with the highest measured life expectancies in the world.

The American continent contains the Northern America region which has the highest aggregate life expectancy, 76.7. In Latin America and the Caribbean, life expectancy is slightly above the world's average.