# **Table 4**

# **Determinants of growth amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Baseline Regressions**

_Dependent variable: Change in the predicted 2020 growth rate (June 2020 vs. October 2019) Effective sample of 110 countries across the world_ **_Instrumental Variables 1/_**

|Variables|**[1]**|**[2]**|**[3]**|**[4]**|**[5]**|**[6]**|**[7]**|**[8]**|**[9]**|**[10]**|**[11]**|**[12]**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_International Trade_|||||||||||||
|<br>Trade Openness|-0.0726*|-0.0540*|-0.0773*|-0.0342*|..|..|-0.0295|-0.0583|..|..|-0.0214|-0.0588*|
|_(% GDP)_<br>Natural resource exports|(0.0419)<br>..|(0.0296)<br>..|(0.0429)<br>..|(0.0191)<br>..|-0.150|..|(0.0220)<br>..|(0.0375)<br>..|-0.149|..|(0.0172)<br>..|(0.0316)<br>..|
|_(% GDP)_|||||(0.121)||||(0.127)||||
|Manufacturing imports|..|..|..|..|-0.161|..|..|..|-0.177|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_<br>Exports to Advanced|..|..|..|..|(0.121)<br>..|-0.126**|..|..|(0.130)<br>..|-0.126**|..|..|
|Countries_(% GDP)_||||||(0.0608)||||(0.0627)|||
|Exports to Developing Countries<br>Outside the region_(% GDP)_|..|..|..|..|..|-0.109<br>(0.172)|..|..|..|-0.160<br>(0.178)|..|..|
|Intra-regional exports|..|..|..|..|..|-0.135|..|..|..|-0.132|..|..|
|<br>_(% GDP)_||||||(0.132)||||(0.132)|||
|_International Finance_<br>|||||||||||||
|Gross Capital Inflows|-0.0980|-0.140|-0.101|-0.108|-0.0858|-0.137|..|-0.139|-0.100|-0.141|..|-0.138|
|_(% GDP)_<br>Gross FDI Inflows|(0.115)<br>..|(0.0903)<br>..|(0.116)<br>..|(0.0777)<br>..|(0.135)<br>..|(0.0910)<br>..|0.0466|(0.0969)<br>..|(0.141)<br>..|(0.0943)<br>..|0.0179|(0.0921)<br>..|
|_(% GDP)_|||||||(0.124)||||(0.0987)||
|Gross Portfolio Investment<br>|..|..|..|..|..|..|0.387**<br>|..|..|..|0.305**<br>|..|
|Inflows_(% GDP)_<br>Gross Other Investment|||||||(0.171)<br>0161||||(0.132)<br>0163||
|<br>Inflows_(% GDP)_|..|..|..|..|..|..|.<br>(0.142)|..|..|..|.<br>(0.115)|..|
|Remittances<br>_% GDP id_|0.150<br>0112|0.140<br>00855|0.226*<br>0134|0.113<br>00689|0.316<br>0219|0.107<br>00837|0.0299<br>00659|0.153<br>0111|0.413<br>0266|0.159<br>00996|0.0401<br>00598|0.199*<br>0102|
|_( , receve)_<br>International Tourism|(.)<br>-0.0105|(.)<br>0.0197|(.)<br>0.00448|(.)<br>0.0213|(.)<br>-0.0535|(.)<br>-0.0248|(.)<br>0.0155|(.)<br>0.0216|(.)<br>-0.0178|(.)<br>-0.0167|(.)<br>0.0173|(.)<br>0.0286|
|Revenues_(% GDP)_|(0.0530)|(0.0410)|(0.0519)|(0.0339)|(0.0760)|(0.0497)|(0.0300)|(0.0448)|(0.0762)|(0.0497)|(0.0243)|(0.0415)|
|_Health and Human Capital_|||||||||||||
|<br>Human Capital|21.56|20.61*|9.887|..|21.99|20.17*|9.213|21.26|8.266|10.44|0.708|11.32|
|2020 Index_(0-1)_<br>Glbl Hlh Si|(16.05)|(12.09)|(12.25)|00828|(16.52)|(11.64)|(8.829)|(13.30)|(13.05)|(9.218)|(5.181)|(9.742)|
|oa eat ecurty<br>_(0-100 index)_|..|..|..|.<br>(0.0709)|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|
|_Macroeconomic Space_|||||||||||||
|Primary Balance|0.0658|0.0962|0.245|0.115|0.163|0.112|0.122|0.119|0.225|0.259*|0.200***|0.234*|
|_(% GDP)_<br>General Govt Gross|(0.160)<br>0.0239|(0.124)<br>0.00386|(0.171)<br>0.0145|(0.105)<br>-0.00423|(0.318)<br>-0.00134|(0.126)<br>0.00309|(0.0846)<br>-0.00377|(0.171)<br>0.00237|(0.319)<br>-0.0128|(0.139)<br>-0.00266|(0.0732)<br>-0.0104|(0.134)<br>-0.00148|
|Debt_(% GDP)_|(0.0292)|(0.0230)|(0.0288)|(0.0196)|(0.0341)|(0.0227)|(0.0165)|(0.0256)|(0.0358)|(0.0238)|(0.0134)|(0.0234)|
|<br>PPG External Debt|0.000142|..|0.00900|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_|(0.0145)||(0.0148)||||||||||
|<br>PPG Ext.Dbt. Official|..|0.135***|..|0.120***|0.120*|0.135***|0.0950***|0.140***|0.110*|0.131***|0.0866***|0.128***|
|Creditors_(% GDP)_||(0.0448)||(0.0372)|(0.0616)|(0.0441)|(0.0300)|(0.0538)|(0.0629)|(0.0448)|(0.0235)|(0.0445)|
|PPG Ext.Dbt. Private<br>Creditors_(% GDP)_|..|-0.0276*<br>(0.0149)|..|-0.0223*<br>(0.0128)|-0.0279<br>(0.0189)|-0.0256*<br>(0.0147)|-0.0182*<br>(0.00969)|-0.0264<br>(0.0171)|-0.0128<br>(0.0196)|-0.0152<br>(0.0144)|-0.0114<br>(0.00714)|-0.0178<br>(0.0144)|
|Inflation Rate|0105|00934|0142|0106*|0152|00965|00646|0103|0172|0131|00583|0123|
|<br>_(% end of period)_|.<br>(0.0910)|.<br>(0.0702)|.<br>(0.0986)|.<br>(0.0597)|.<br>(0.115)|.<br>(0.0713)|.<br>(0.0541)|.<br>(0.0889)|.<br>(0.124)|.<br>(0.0815)|.<br>(0.0439)|.<br>(0.0763)|
|Current Account|0.154*|0.121*|0.135|0.127**|0.167|0.170**|0.0381|0.116|0.156|0.158**|0.0230|0.110|
|Balance_(% GDP)_|(0.0906)|(0.0716)|(0.0919)|(0.0613)|(0.124)|(0.0733)|(0.0507)|(0.0805)|(0.128)|(0.0750)|(0.0416)|(0.0736)|
|_Policy Response_<br>|||||||||||||
|Government Response (GR)|-0.461*|-0.353**|..|-0.278**|-0.462*|-0.351**|-0.223**|..|..|..|..|..|
|_(Oxford tracker)_|(0.242)|(0.163)||(0.123)|(0.245)|(0.179)|(0.111)||||||
|<br>Stringency Index|..|..|-0.421**|..|..|..|..|..|-0.444*|-0.330**|-0.145**|-0.328**|
|_(Oxford tracker)_|||(0.214)||||||(0.237)|(0.168)|(0.0716)|(0.152)|
|<br>GR: Containment & Health||||||||-0346|||||
|<br>_(Oxford tracker)_|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|.<br>(0.269)|||||
|GR: Economic Support||||||||-00392|||||
|<br>|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|.<br>|||||
|_(Oxford tracker)_||||||||(0.0777)|||||
|_Reional Dummies_|||||||||||||
|_g_<br>Dummy: Sub-Saharan|1.893|3.677**|1.259|2.101|2.906|3.659**|1.797|3.691**|1.459|3.090|1.310|3.014*|
|Africa (SSA)|(2.175)|(1.691)|(2.300)|(1.310)|(2.369)|(1.745)|(1.139)|(1.811)|(2.753)|(1.891)|(0.921)|(1.797)|
|Observations|85|85|85|88|75|85|75|85|75|85|75|85|
|R-squared||||0.103|||||||0.218||

- 1/ We control the likely endogeneity of the policy response with 2019 levels of real GDP per capita, government tax revenues (% GDP), voice and accountability, and political stability Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

20