rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 2: Life Expectancy at Birth in the Developing World<br>90<br>80 -<br>70-<br>60 -<br>50--<br>40--<br>30-<br>10<br>0 E.<br>Latin America and India China Other Asia Sub Saharan High Income<br>the Canbbean Affica Countfies (for<br>comparison)<br>[i 1960 * 1980 0 1998 1<br><!-- End of picture text --> Box 1 below draws on examples from the health sector to draw out the complexities in the relationship between knowledge, diffusion and outcomes. As the box describes, advances in S&T make possible, but do not guarantee, progress against poverty.

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to avoid underestimation of the standard errors due to macro variable in micro units problems. The expected results are given in Table 1.

**Table 1  Expected Effects of Carbon Taxes and Energy Efficiency Standards on**

**Exports**

|**Carbon Tax**|**Effects on**<br>**industry export**|**Energy Efficiency**<br>**Standard**|**Effects on industry**<br>**export**|
|---|---|---|---|
|**Carbon tax by an**<br>**exporting country**|Negative|**Energy efficiency**<br>**standards in the**<br>**exporting country**|Neutral or marginally<br>negative|
|**Carbon tax by an**<br>**importing country**|Positive|**Energy efficiency**<br>**standards in the**<br>**importing country**|Negative|
|**Both exporting and**<br>**importing countries have**<br>**carbon tax**|Neutral or marginal<br>decline in trade|**Energy efficiency**<br>**standards in both**<br>**exporting and**<br>**importing country**|Neutral or marginal<br>decline in trade|

# **_3.  Data_**

The main data source is the UN Comtrade database, which provides the value of exports at 3 digit ISIC level for all the OECD countries from 1988 to 2005. We also obtain GDP figures from the World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2006). The gravity variables such as bilateral distance between country pairs, and common border variable are from Nicita and Olarreaga (2004). Information on carbon taxes and energy efficiency standards is obtained from various national sources.

Some caveats are in order. First, a limitation of this analysis is that climate change measures, namely carbon taxes and energy efficiency standards, are used as dummy variables in this analysis. They do not reflect the differentiated levels of standards and taxes that are levied in different countries and across the different fuels.

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14

# III. The Industry Pattern of Relative Prices

Several important questions concern the product groups in<sup>which the extreme</sup> price relatives occu --in particular, are they clustered<sup>in sectors where</sup> preshipment inspection is not required (see footnote 7 for<sup>information on this</sup> point), do they flag industries where PSI is less effective<sup>(possibly due to</sup> complex or secret pricing practices), are they in less-competitive<sup>sectors where</sup> monopoly pricing is a factor, or is there evidence they result<sup>from collaborative</sup> false invoicing by buyers and sellers. Using data on French<sup>exports, Table 5</sup> allows examination of the distribution of these extreme price<sup>relatives before</sup> **and after** PSI was adopted. The table shows the percentage<sup>of</sup><sup>**extremes in each**</sup> major one- and two-digit SITC group and also indicates<sup>Madagascar's overall</sup> import price relativity. 6 Finally, the table also gives the value of Madagascar's imports in each product group.

Table 5 shows that the extreme price relatives are heavily<sup>clustered within</sup> chemicals (SITC 5) and basic manufactures (SITC 6), and that<sup>the introduction</sup> of PSI did little to change their distribution or frequency<sup>of occurrence.</sup> During 1984-88, 36 percent of all extremes occurred for chemicals<sup>(up 2 points</sup> from 1979-82) with over two-fifths of these observations<sup>in inorganic chemicals</sup> 16In 1979-82 there were 94 five-digit SITC products which had "extreme" price relatives (150 percent or more difference between Madagascar's<sup>and other</sup> countries' prices) while there were 111 such observations<sup>during 1984-88. The</sup> expenditure discount or premium measure (Ed/p) reported in Table<sup>**5**shows the</sup> percentage difference between Madagascar's actual and potential expenditure<sup>**if**</sup> the same quantity of imports were purchased under other<sup>countries' prices,</sup> A positive value shows the percentage "excess payment" **associated with** Madagascar's higher import prices.
|N Treatment 1<br>238|128|110|125|113|76|94|68|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|N Treatment 2<br>381|194|187|189|192|103|126|152|
|_R2_<br>_0.807_|_0.772_|_0.844_|_0.809_|_0.825_|_0.440_|_0.231_|_0.703_|
|_Panel C: GPAs, Long-Run (2016/2017 Q3+Q4)_||||||||
|Treatment 1<br>0.129**|0.136**|0.126|0.196**|0.077|0.104**|0.127|0.178*|
|“Student Self-Learning”<br>_(0.052)_|_(0.062)_|_(0.086)_|_(0.077)_|_(0.057)_|_(0.040)_|_(0.082)_|_(0.102)_|
|Treatment 2<br>0.279***|0.240***|0.342***|0.327***|0.228***|0.170***|0.232***|0.460***|
|“Teacher Delivery”<br>_(0.055)_|_(0.035)_|_(0.094)_|_(0.071)_|_(0.038)_|_(0.057)_|_(0.054)_|_(0.042)_|
|N<br>985|522|463|512|473|330|328|327|
|N Control<br>360|193|167|199|161|150|108|102|
|N Treatment 1<br>238|129|109|125|113|76|93|69|
|N Treatment 2<br>387|200|187|188|199|104|127|156|
|_R2_<br>_0.798_|_0.786_|_0.821_|_0.806_|_0.815_|_0.257_|_0.316_|_0.691_|

* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. _Notes:_ All regressions control for pre-treatment outcomes, demographic controls (including dummies for age, gender, academic year, and ethnicity), and municipality fixed effects. Robust standard errors are clustered at the school level in parentheses. All figures are rounded to three decimal places. _Source:_ Own survey data, school year 2015/2016, own calculations.

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**Figure 3. Definition of CEQ Income Concepts**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Market Income<br>• Income from work (wages/salary + in-kind<br>benefits)<br>• Income from capital<br>• Self-provision of goods/services<br>• Private transfers/remittances/alimony<br>• Private pensions<br>+<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Contributory Pensions<br><!-- End of picture text -->

# **Market Income plus Pensions**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Direct Taxes and Contributions<br>• Personal Income Tax (PAYE)<br>• Property Taxes<br>• Contributions to Social Security<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text -->
-<br><!-- End of picture text -->

<!-- Start of picture text --> Net Market Income<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Direct Transfers<br> Conditional or unconditional<br>cash transfers<br> Near-cash transfers<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> +<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> <br>Disposable Income<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> +<br>Indirect Subsidies<br>Indirect Taxes - • Fuel<br> Value-added tax (VAT) Excise taxes: alcohol and tobacco Excise taxes: alcohol and tobacco ••• Electricity Agricultural Inputs (FISP) Agricultural Inputs (FISP)<br>Consumable Income<br>In-Kind Transfers<br>• Monetized value<br>+<br>• Copayments and user of education and health<br>services<br>fees for education<br> and health services<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Indirect Subsidies<br>• Fuel<br>•••<br>Electricity Agricultural Inputs (FISP) Agricultural Inputs (FISP)<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Indirect Taxes<br> Value-added tax (VAT) Excise taxes: alcohol and tobacco Excise taxes: alcohol and tobacco<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> In-Kind Transfers<br>• Monetized value<br>of education and health<br>services<br><!-- End of picture text -->

# **Final Income**

_Source:_ Excerpted from Lustig (2016) 17
- 40 -

less than 80 percent of total long-run costs. Also, high density traffic seems to exhaust the economies of scale experienced at lower densities, but significant diseconomies of scale do not occur as densities grow larger. Consequently, since all railroads have relatively low density traffic on many segments, and since most traffic flows on low density track while it is gathered and distributed, rail services exhibit substantial economics of scale overall. As a result, prices set at marginal costs would leave uncovered a substantial portion of total efficient railroad costs.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Cents por<br>i1b - Mile<br>LRMC - - --- - Bcr - -- --<br>I I I < I I ~~~~~~~~ATC<br>I I II<br>I I I<br>II ' ' 'AVC<br>I I I<br>4 7 8 35 - 40<br>Mi Gym Ten - MEs per Mb of Rcad<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Figure A.1** Unit Total Cost, Operating Costs, and Traffic Density. Source: Levin (1981).
we cannot cleanly isolate the minimum wage channel. We also acknowledge that allowing a triple difference to vary by both gender and time period is demanding on the data, and the estimates are accordingly noisy, so they should be viewed as suggestive. We further caution that, as discussed in the introduction, the more time that passed after Rana Plaza, the greater the likelihood of a shock to garment workers in treated districts that would violate the parallel trends assumption needed for a causal interpretation of the triple difference in equation 1. So the medium-term results should be viewed as somewhat more suggestive, though it’s broadly reassuring for policy-makers interested in improving the welfare of garment workers that positive point estimates for wages do not dissipate completely in the medium term.

The stated objective of much of the international scrutiny post Rana Plaza reforms was to improve safety and working conditions inside garment factories. In column 2 of Table 2, we report estimates of the effects of the Rana Plaza reforms on the index of working conditions described in section 3.1. Overall, we find that Rana Plaza increased the working conditions faced by garment workers by 0.80 standard deviations, with similar orders of magnitude between men and women. From Figure 5, we see that the effects are particularly strong in 2016 (especially for women), though again the estimates are fairly noisy and this pattern should be viewed as suggestive. By contrast, we do not find qualitatively large or statistically significant effects on hours of work or the probability of receiving a contract.

Table 3 examines other sources of potential heterogeneity behind the average effects given in panel A of Table 2. Specifically, we consider four binary dimensions of heterogeneity: at or below median age and education in estimation sample (7 years of education and 28 years of age), whether the respondent is married, and whether there is at least one child in the respondent’s house<sup>7</sup> . These variables were chosen because they either reflect human capital (lacking direct information on total garment sector experience, age is a close proxy) or increased demand for nonwage benefits among those with care-taking responsibilities. Because there may be important interactions between these variables and gender, we include each variable’s interaction with both 7This measure may miss respondents’ biological children if they are living with relatives in a rural area, which anecdotally is not uncommon among garment workers, but not available in the LFS surveys. Still, however, the measure captures garment workers who are likely to have increased care-taking responsibilities.

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facilitates the implementation of time-varying country fixed effects to control for the common omission of multilateral resistance terms and, crucially, also for country-pair dummies to control for unobserved country-pair heterogeneity. Greater emphasis is placed upon bilateral trade flows to and from developing nations, while the time dimension of the panel is more comprehensive yielding better estimates of the longer term effects of migration on trade. Importantly, the effects of immigration _and_ emigration on trade are assessed simultaneously, the absence of one of which tends to overestimate the importance of the other.

First the data are tested in repeated cross-sections and then the data are pooled, the results from which are consistent with the existing literature. The implementation of pair-wise fixed effects, used to account for „bilateral ties‟, strips away the positive effect of migration on trade. Dividing the world into the relatively affluent North and poorer South, the results show that migrants from both regions only affect Northern exports to the South. This is intuitive since in general countries of the North export more differentiated products, while countries of the South more often export homogenous commodities. It is also between those regions that informational barriers are likely highest. Interacting the migrant variables further, at the country level, shows that migrants may both create and divert trade. These interactions also suggest that while the unobserved factors are generally positively correlated with the _direct_ effects of migrants, the direction of the bias is less certain when the _indirect_ impacts of migrants are considered. Taken as a whole, the results demonstrate the large biases inherent in cross-sectional studies investigating the trademigration nexus and highlight the need to be cautious when interpreting previous findings. An international examination of the trade-migration nexus at the product level is absent from the existing literature. While this is beyond the scope of the current work, the results from this paper are strongly suggestive that this should be undertaken, without which it is difficult to draw ascertain the true mechanisms underpinning the trade-migration nexus.

# _2. Literature Review_

Based on the premise that the greatest potential benefits to trade exist between countries which are the least similar (Winters 2003), then migrants (who by definition have experience of both locations), may be best placed to exploit those differences. Migrants are often bilingual, fluent in both their mother tongue and the language of their host nation. They may possess knowledge of the available products in both countries, about the local laws and regulations that govern the markets and the institutions that oversee their functioning. Migrants are ideally positioned to exploit opportunities for arbitrage and match buyers and sellers through their superior market knowledge, thereby lowering the transaction costs of trade. These arguments were first made by Gould (1994), whose seminal contribution paved the way for 3
# **THE LIFE-C.CLE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF PAY-AS-YOU-GO AND FUNDED PENSION SYSTEMS: A MICROSIMULATION MODELLING ANALYSIS**

# Jane Falkingham and Paul Johnson London School of Economics

# **l. Context**

The reform of public pension systems is a prominent policy issue ir, both the newly industrializing anct the older industrial economies. Countries as geographically, economically and ideologically diverse as Argentina, China, Japan and Sweden are now inaug,.rating, or conternplating the introduction of, public pension reform. Although the proximate political and economic reasons for reform vary between countries, three common influences can be seen to be at work in both the old and the new industrial economies.

First is the demographic condition of population ageing. A rapid fall in fertility rates since the 1960s and rising adult life expectancy have combined to produce -, _uid_ ageing from both the base and the apex of the population pyramid. The proportion of older persons in industrial societies is rising and so also is the cost of the pensions required to support these older people who, for a complex mix of social, economic and physiological factors, can no longer support themselves through participation in the labour market.

Second is the trend towards pension system maturity. Public pensions based on payas-you-go principles tend to be cheap to operate when new since they have many contributors and few beneficiaries, but over time these ratios change and the costs rise. Costs can be temporarily contained by incorporating new groups of workers into the pension system, thereby expanding the contribution base, but once most of the population is so covered the scope for further system expansion obviously becomes minimal. After several decades of low-cost expansion many public pension systems are now having to face the uncomfortably high costs of stable steady-state financing.
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**Figure 2: Projection of Annex I and Non-Annex I Countries Total CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons of CO2)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 25,000<br>Annex I<br>20,000 Non Annex I<br>15,000<br>10,000<br>5,000<br>0<br>1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030<br>Million Metric Tons<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: EIA (2007a) for historical emissions and IEA (2007b) for projected emissions.

# **3.2 CO2 Intensity**

Figure 3 and Table 2 illustrate comparisons of historical as well as future trends of CO2 intensities across different countries and regions<sup>11</sup> . Historically CO2 intensities decreased in most of the countries or regions, thereby resulting in decline of global average CO2 intensity<sup>12</sup> . The highest level of decline is observed in China, where it

- 11 Baumert et al. (2004) reports that global average CO2 intensity is about 15 percent smaller than global average GHG intensity in 2000.

> 12 Decomposition analyses could be helpful to explain the factors responsible for emission intensity trends

- (Lee and Oh, 2006; Wang et al. 2005).

-14-
# (b) IMPACTS ON SOFT SKILLS

Improvements in soft skills are measured through three brief indicators taken from the literature and that were seen during discussions with government counterparts as the most aligned with the project’s theory of change. The first indicator is leadership/teamwork, which was constructed by adapting the American Camp Association (2012) youth survey.<sup>15</sup> It consists of 16 different questions that can be ranked on a five-point scale. The scale’s maximum value is 80 and its minimum value is 16. The second indicator is communication skills, constructed based on Barkman and Machtmes (2002),<sup>16</sup> and which assesses youth’s ability to communicate well by examining how frequent youth use the skills included in effective communication practices.<sup>17</sup> The indicator consists of 23 questions that can each be ranked from 0 to 5, which makes the total possible score range from a maximum value of 92 to a minimum value of 0. The third indicator is confidence skills, which is adapted from Rosenberg’s (1965) self-esteem measure.<sup>18</sup> The indicator consists of 10 questions that can each be ranked on a four-point scale, which makes the total possible score range from a maximum value of 40 to a minimum value of 10. Similar to social cohesion measures, soft skills indicators are internally standardized. They have also been piloted ahead of data collection to test their validity and reliability.

Results in **table 4** indicate that assignment to NVSP has no impact on the three indicators for soft skills among selected youth for specifications 1 & 2 (see the δ estimate for columns 1, 2, & 3). The leadership skills measure appears to have worsened for both selected and non-selected youth over time, which is somewhat puzzling given that both groups are active volunteers and members in their communities (see the β� δ estimate and the β estimate for column 1). Any changes for the communication and confidence scores one year following NVSP were not statistically

> 15 The selection of the indicator for this study was based on its extensive utilization (to maximize the chance for the scale to be reliable when calculating Cronbach’s Alpha with the data of the pilot), on the availability of detailed information regarding how the indicator was designed, and of how the scales should be interpreted once data have been collected.

> 16 This scale had been tested with youth aged 12-18 showing high levels of internal consistency. Additionally, it was a relatively simple scale with no need for special training to administer it or to analyze the results of the scale. 17 These skills include: awareness of one’s own styles of communication; understanding and valuing different styles of communication; practicing empathy; adjusting one’s own styles of communication to match others' styles. (communicative adaptability); and communication of essential information; Interaction management.

> 18 This scale has been used extensively in the psycho-social / soft skills literature, ensuring possible comparability with other studies of the soft skills literature.

16
suggested that targeting transfers towards women of childbearing age may be beneficial in the U.S. context, so as to maximize benefits to children _in utero_ . This form of targeting would suffer from remarkably little ‘leakage’ in the Malawian context; two thirds of women aged 20-24 gave birth by age 20 and virtually all females have started childbearing by age 25 (National Statistical Office and ICF Macro 2005).

Given the medium-term nature of these results, it is natural to ask how much we can infer about longer-run impacts. As our study captures outcomes a little more than two years after the cash transfers stopped, we cannot speak to long-term effects, such as those analyzed in the U.S. context in recent studies (Aizer et al. 2016); Hoynes, Schanzenbach and Almond 2016).To guide our thinking, we return again to the role of productive assets in generating long-term rewards: to make an impact later in life, a program must have meaningfully shifted the stock of some form of capital that can generate returns over the long haul. For _baseline dropouts_ , who were offered CCTs to return to school, the improvement in schooling human capital is sizeable, and they have formed households with more educated partners. For this group, it may be premature to conclude that improvements in education have led to no long-term gains. If the education/wage relationship becomes steeper with age, or if household-level human capital alters the economic trajectory of these households, future follow-up studies may well reveal longer-term benefits. For _baseline schoolgirls_ in the UCT arm, our findings suggest that two years of financial support during adolescence might have been too short – rather than a two-year follow-up window being too short to trace out subsequent impacts.<sup>34</sup> Only two years after the end of the program, UCT beneficiaries are, in most respects, in a position indistinguishable from where they would have been in the absence of cash transfers. The unwinding of the program impacts on marriage and

> 34 However, it should be noted that the Mothers’ Pension program of the early 20th century U.S. had a median duration of three years and was of similar generosity to many cash transfer programs today, including ours (Aizer et al. 2016), and showed long-term effects in health, education, and income among children of program beneficiaries.

35