protracted refugee situations was 26 years at the end of 2015, up from 9 years in 1993 and 17 years in 2013, where protracted refugee situations are crudely defined as those where 25,000 refugees or more have been in exile for five years or more after their initial displacement (UNCHR ExCom, 2009). According to this definition, at the end of 2015 there were 32 protracted refugee situations in 27 asylum countries, accounting for 6.7 million refugees or 41 percent of the global refugee population.<sup>54</sup> They comprise a range of settings including camps and individual accommodation in both rural and urban environments. The majority is in developing countries, several of which are also FCS.

**Table 2: UNHCR Estimates of Protracted Refugee Situations, 1993, 2003, 2014 and 2015**

||**1993**|**2003**|**2014**|**2015**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Number of protracted**<br>**refugee situations**|27 situations (45<br>percent of all<br>refugee situations)|38 situations (90<br>percent of all<br>refugee situations)|33 situations in 26<br>countries|32 situations in 27<br>host countries|
|**Number of refugees in**<br>**protracted refugee**<br>**situations**|7.9 million (48<br>percent of all<br>refugees)|6.2 million (64<br>percent of all<br>refugees)|6.4 million (45<br>percent of all<br>refugees)|6.7 million (41<br>percent of all<br>refugees)|
|**Average duration of**<br>**protracted refugee**<br>**situations**|9 years|17 years|25 years|26 years|

Protracted displacement of IDPs is also a significant phenomenon. IDMC reported that people were living in internal displacement for more than 10 years in 53 of 60 countries/territories that it monitored in 2014 (IDMC 2015). Countries experiencing conflict-related displacement have reported IDP figures for 23 years on average, suggesting protracted IDP situations. At the end of 2014 at least 50 percent of IDPs had been displaced for more than three years in countries monitored for conflict-induced displacement (Crawford, et al. 2015).

There are several methodological issues associated with estimates of average duration of displacement situations. First, there can be significant movements of people into and out of displacement situations and therefore estimates of average duration of displacement situations overstate the average length of time that an individual person is in displacement.<sup>55</sup> Second, the choice of timeframe beyond which displacement is considered protracted is an arbitrary one.<sup>56</sup> Third, the list of protracted refugee situations includes situations that do not present clear development challenges, e.g. the 300,000 Vietnamese refugees in China who are well integrated, but excludes other protracted refugee situations that fall below the arbitrary threshold of 25,000 people. Fourth, some of the larger displacement crises can significantly skew the average duration of protracted refugee situations. For example, the Afghan refugee crisis significantly lengthens the average duration of displacement situations, while in 2016 the Syrian refugee crisis will become protracted according to UNHCR’s definition and consequently it will substantially reduce the estimate of average duration. Fifth, estimates of average duration exclude IDPs due to conceptual problems of defining an end to internal displacement as well as data constraints. And finally, there are some discrepancies in the available displacement data that further distort estimates of average duration, for example South Sudanese

> 54 Excludes Palestinian refugees under UNRWA’s mandate and refugees in high-income OECD countries.

> 55 Calculations are not based on individual data, which would provide a truer estimate of how long an average a person is in displacement, but on ‘situations’ (i.e. refugee populations in host countries grouped by country of origin, e.g. Ethiopia currently hosts refugees from Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan and so has four refugee situations). Calculations do not take into account fluctuations in refugee numbers if the size of the situation remains over 25,000 people. Moreover, since population estimates are annual snapshots, they cannot take into account increases and decreases within years, which can also be substantial.

> 56 Arguing that few refugee crises are resolved quickly, a 2015 ODI report proposes broadening the definition of protracted displacement to situations where refugees and/or IDPs have been in exile for three years or more, which increases the number of refugees in protracted displacement situations in 2014 from UNHCR’s estimate of 6.4 million people to 12.9 million people (two-thirds of all refugees) (Crawford, et al. 2015).