rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
a 1% transitory productivity shock. Investment increases, but not enough to offset saving. Valuation effect response is negative because the domestic asset price appreciates. The size of the valuation effect response is relatively small compared to that of the current account because the domestic asset price appreciates only modestly, as investors know the positive shock to the home country is temporary. In contrast, in the case of the trend shock, valuation effects are much larger because the domestic asset price appreciates more, as investors know the domestic country will outperform the foreign country for a longer time. Valuation effects are negative and reinforce the movement of the current account.

||Data|Both shocks|Only|Only|
|---|---|---|---|---|
||||Transitory|Trend|
|_std_<br>~~�~~_Y H_<br>_t_+1<br>_Y _<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~|0.0105|0.0103|0.0100|0.0028|
||(U.S.)|(0.0008)|(0.0007)|(0.0003)|
|_std_<br>~~�~~_Y F_<br>_t_+1<br>_Y _<sup>_F_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~|0.0067|0.0067|0.0061|0.0028|
||(G.6.)|(0.0005)|(0.0004)|(0.0003)|
|_std_<br>~~�~~_CH_<br>_t_+1<br>_C_<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~<br><br>|0.0071|0.0067<br>(0.0005)|0.042<br>(0.0003)|0.0052<br>(0.0004)|
|_corr_<br>~~�~~<br>_C_<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t _<sup>_, Y H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_F_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~<br><br><br>|-0.5731|-0.5641<br>(0.2350)|-0.9577<br>(0.0243)|-0.2687<br>(0.2592)|
|_std_<br>~~�~~<br>_C_<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~<br><br><br><br>|0.0104|0.0104<br>(0.0019)|0.0085<br>0.0022|0.0009<br>(0.0003)|
|_corr_<br>~~�~~<br>_I_<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t _<sup>_, Y H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_F_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~|0.122|0.1011<br>(0.2979)|0.3857<br>(0.2080)|-0.1146<br>(0.3150)|
|_std_<br>~~�~~<br>_NX_<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~<br><br><br>|0.011|0.0098<br>( 0.0019)|0.0078<br>(0.0016)|0.0056<br>0.0012|
|_std_<br>~~�~~<br>_CA_<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~<br>|0.013|0.0091<br>(0.0016)|0.0071<br>(0.0012 )|0.0054<br>(0.001)|
|_std_<br>~~�~~<br>_V E_<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~|0.0148|0.0052<br>(0.0004)|0.0010<br>(0.0002)|0.0051<br>(0.0004)|
|_std_<br>~~�~~<br>∆_NF A_<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>_Y _<sup>_H_</sup><br>_t_<br>~~�~~|0.0156|0.0121<br>(0.0016)|0.007<br>(0.0012)|0.096<br>(0.0011)|

Table 3: Volatility of trade, current account, valuation effects and changes in NFA position I run a simulation exercise to investigate the quantitative importance of valuation effects. In the simulation I generate 200 histories, each of 120 periods. Each period 16
Rather, measurement of one dimension can also help us better interpret and address shortcomings in the measure of the other. For example, how is the capacity of an individual to define goals that are consistent with their values influenced by their sense of control to achieve these goals? How do decision-making arrangements within the household impact an individual’s sense of self-efficacy and perceived control, and what is the relationship between self-efficacy measures in particular domains and decision-making in those domains? Analyzing these questions can help to also shed light on the question of the meaningfulness of generalized self-efficacy as a measure of women’s agency.

For example, Seymour and Peterman (2017) show how information from the RAI can be used in concert with standard decision-making indicators to attenuate the problems associated with measuring women’s agency in terms of decision-making. They find significant differences in the degree to which women associate autonomy with different decision-making outcomes across Bangladesh and Ghana. Moreover, the strength of this association varies by domain and by whether or not there is a shared understanding of decision-making within households. Given the domain-specific variations they observe in the relationship between autonomy and decision-making, they advise researchers to construct agency indicators across different domains.

**Broaden the scope of measures to include other age groups** _:_ within the three dimensions, measurement tools should be adapted to adequately capture agency for a wider range of age groups, from young girls to older women. Not only will this increase our understanding of agency across the lifecycle, but it will also allow us to examine how agency is correlated and transmitted across multiple generations within families and communities. Nearly all of the measures we have covered above have been validated and used with adult women between 18 and 50. In this process of adaptation, information gleaned from the validation process of LOC scales originally developed for adults and later adapted for children could be used, such as the Bialar-Cromwell Locus of Control Scale (Bialer 1961). Beyond the wording, part of this will entail a revision of domains that are included in such scales to capture manifestations of agency that are most salient for different groups, as well as potentially including questions on expectations of how major decisions would be made in the future, which could be asked of younger age groups.  For example, adult women are asked about their ability to visit a health clinic or marketplace; however, a more relevant example for younger girls could ask about their ability to walk to school.

**Systematically adapt measures to local contexts:** another priority for future research is using a more systematic approach for adapting measures within our three dimensions across local contexts, and summarizing lessons from iterative processes of qualitative and quantitative data collection. Having a clear conceptualization is the first step in making progress, as it will guide what criteria should be used for

52
<mark>collapses on both poverty and cumulative income changes along the distribution. Still, the average outcome is regressive relative to expectations based on an assumption of proportional distribution of losses.</mark> <mark>The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows. Section II presents a short overview of the data used. Section III presents the methodology and discusses potential issues, as well as how we address them. Section IV presents our findings. Section V concludes.</mark>

# **II.** **<mark>Data</mark>**

<mark>To better understand the social costs of default, we use three main types of variables: those measuring the social costs, those measuring the default crisis events, and those used to construct the synthetic controls in our estimations.</mark> <mark>We use different variables to assess the social costs associated with sovereign default. Some of these variables measure demographic aspects such as infant mortality, life expectancy and population. Infant mortality is defined as the number of children who die before reaching their first birthday per 1,000 live births. Life expectancy is measured at birth in years for the total population as published by the World Development Indicators.</mark> <mark>Other variables measure access to resources or income, such as poverty headcount, calorie supply, and energy supply. The poverty headcount measures the percentage of people living below the $1.90 per day poverty line as published by the World Bank (Poverty and Inequality Platform - PIP). Calorie supply measures the average availability of food in the country (not the actual consumption or its distribution) as computed by the Food and Agriculture Organization. Energy supply assesses the amount of energy usage in a country from any source as published by the OECD World Energy Balances.</mark> <mark>Our data on sovereign defaults to private external creditors comes from Farah Yacoub, Graf von Luckner and Reinhart (2022) and takes the form of an annually assessed categorical variable – that is, in default or not (1 or 0). It covers 193 sovereigns and 3 non-sovereigns since 1800, but we use it only from 1900. Default spells are generally considered over once the default signal has been cured for two years. Substantively, it captures defaults as perceived by financial market participants and rating agencies and consequently the revealed inability of the sovereign to meet its commitments as contracted. Thus, the definition hews closely to how rating agencies qualify a</mark> 9
subsidy financed by an indirect tax, given a government revenue constraint; and export targeting.

We use the model to solve for optimal policy combinations. The problem is treated as a nonlinear program, maximizing absorption Q subject to the equations in Table 1 as constraints.<sup>18</sup> The tax rates are instrumental variables. In some experiments, it is possible to achieve the full-information optimum. In others, given additional constraints on government revenue or export targets, we consider the costs of not being able to attain the full-information solution.

The results of these scenarios, which all start from run 12 in Table 2, are reported in Table 3. Consider the tax and subsidy experiments. Using export subsidies alone would achieve the optimum and would require an export subsidy rate of 150 percent at a fiscal cost representing 25 percent of GDP. GATT surveillance notwithstanding, this approach would raise the eyebrows of even the most outward-looking finance ministerl In an economy with a well-established and efficien **t** ax collection system, the full benefit of the externality could be achieved at no net cost to the treasury by combining a 25 percent production tax with a 98 percent export subsidy (experiment 4). Alternatively, by Lerner symmetry, the same production tax could be combined with a 50 percent subsidy to imports (experiment 5).19 It is unlikely that the full benefits of an externality are achievable by policy intervention if only because of ignorance about the exact nature of the externality and thus

> t The model is solved using the GAMS software; see Brooke, Kendrick, and Meeraus (1988).

19Accounting for the nunmeraire, the product of the exchange rate and export subsidy in row 4 of Table 3 equals the exchange rate times the import tariff in row S.

-16-
Table 1: Trade Impacts on Factor Shares and Factor Taxation

||Capi|tal Share|E|fective Ta|x Rate|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||overall|corp. sector|labor|capital|corp. profts|
|Panel A: OLS||||||
|Trade|0.0195*<br>(0.0109)|0.0217<br>(0.0148)|0.0246**<br>(0.0101)|0.0168<br>(0.0302)|0.0120<br>(0.0220)|
|Panel B: IV estim|ate (NDP-|weighted)||||
|Trade|0.151**|0.184**|0.163***|0.375*|0.342***|
||(0.0698)|(0.0800)|(0.0538)|(0.213)|(0.121)|
|First-stage F-statistic|26.07|26.07|26.07|26.07|26.07|
|Panel C: IV estim|ate (unwe|ighted)||||
|Trade|0.118*<br>(0.0681)|0.122<br>(0.0826)|0.133**<br>(0.0526)|0.250**<br>(0.105)|0.359***<br>(0.0870)|
|First-stage F-statistic|8.42|8.42|8.42|8.42|8.42|
|Panel D: IV estim|ate (NDP-|weighted, with|controls)|||
|Trade|0.115**|0.142**|0.226***|0.400***|0.205*|
||(0.0475)|(0.0546)|(0.0551)|(0.112)|(0.129)|
|First-stage F-statistic|19.02|19.02|19.02|19.02|19.02|
|_N_|_4518_|_4518_|_4518_|_4518_|_4518_|

_Notes:_ This table presents results from estimating the effect of trade on factor shares and factor taxation. In Panel A, we present results from estimating equation (7) using OLS, while Panels B and C and D present IV estimates—weighted by National Domestic Product (NDP); unweighted; and weighted with controls, respectively. Across columns, the outcome is the capital share of national domestic product and within the corporate sector, and the effective tax rate on labor, capital and corporate profits. Trade is measured as the sum of export and imports divided by NDP. IV estimates in panels B,C,D instrument for trade using the oil-price and the gravity-instruments from Egger, Nigai, and Strecker (2019). All estimates include country and year fixed effects and observations are weighted by net domestic product in constant 2019 USD at PPP (except in Panel C). The controls included in Panel C are: USD exchange rate; gross fixed capital formation (as a percentage of NDP); (log) population; (log) GDP per capita; and _de jure_ capital accounts mobility. For more details, see Section 7. * p<0.10 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01. Standard errors in parentheses are clustered at the country level.

49
across countries, these findings are consistent with the notion that shrinking the gap in quality determinants might also shrink the gap in outcomes.

This paper contributes to several literatures. First, we link to work on the role of program quality determinants in higher education on graduates’ outcomes. This literature typically focuses on bachelor’s degree programs, uses data from a single country, and examines a single determinant such as availability or use of funding options;<sup>7</sup> curriculum structure, training, and academic remediation;<sup>8</sup> availability of infrastructure for practical training;<sup>9</sup> practices related to faculty assessment, training, and hiring;<sup>10</sup> practices to promote student employability and industry engagement;<sup>11</sup> and other program and institution characteristics such as governance.<sup>12</sup> Bailey et al (2015) focus on community colleges in the US and describe the practices of successful institutions and programs yet do not provide systematic, quantitative evidence. Our paper is novel in collecting evidence and analyzing multiple determinants for several countries and specifically SCPs.<sup>13</sup>

- 7 See studies on scholarships, grants, and awards (Andrews et al., 2020; Barrow et al., 2014; Castleman et al., 2016; Cohodes and Goodman, 2014; Field, 2009), loan availability and take-up (Armona et al., 2018; Wiederspan, 2016), and tuition (Denning, 2017; Dynarski and Scott-Clayton, 2013; Martorell et al., 2014; Scott-Clayton, 2011).

- 8 Examples are studies on credits for longer degrees or transfers (Andrews and Lovenheim, 2014), teaching a second language (Chin et al., 2013), teaching math or reading skills (Xu and Jaggars, 2011), and providing academic remediation (Bettinger and Long 2009).

- 9 This literature refers mostly to online training (Bettinger et al., 2017; Cellini and Grueso, 2021; Deming et al., 2016; Figlio et al., 2013; Johnson and Mejia, 2014; Jaggars and Xu, 2016). Evidence is lacking on the effects of other types of infrastructure for practical training.

- 10 Evidence on faculty characteristics mostly refers to gender (Bettinger and Long, 2005; Carrell et al., 2010; Kofoed et al., 2019; Lim and Meer, 2019; Porter and Serra, 2020). On faculty-related practices, the literature focuses on faculty assessment (Hoffmann and Oreopoulos, 2009; Kane and Staiger, 2012; Daniel et al., 2007), without robust evidence on faculty training or hiring practices.

- 11 Most of these papers analyze internship agreements between firms and HEIs (Di Meglio et al. 2022; Jaeger et al. 2020; Wesley et al. 2019; Yi 2018); few papers study industry engagement in curriculum design (Plewa et al., 2015).

- 12 See Teixeira et al. (2013), Hoxby and Bulman (2015), and Bound, Lovenheim, and Turner (2010).

- 13 Our paper is also in the spirit of Dobbie and Fryer (2013) for K-12 education. The authors collect data on charter school practices and use it to explain the variation in charter school effectiveness.

7
3n

# Table 3

# BNRANCED STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT FACILITY STATUS OF LOAN ARRANGEMENTS 1/ as at December 31, 1990

(In millions of SDR)

|Member|Date of<br>Arrangement|Amount<br>agreed|Undrawn<br>balance|
|---|---|---|---|
|Bangladesh|Aug. 10, 1990|.58.8|215.7|
|Bolivia|July 27, 1988|90.7|45.3|
|Gambia, The|Nov. 23, 1988|17.1|3.4|
|Ghana|Nov. 9, 1986|265.9|96.0|
|Guyana|July 13, 1990|47.1|14.7|
|Kenya|May 15, 1989|170.4|60.5|
|Madagascar|May 15, 1989|43.7|31.9|
|Malawi|July 15, 1988|29.8|5.6|
|Mauritania|May 24, 1989|44.1|30.5|
|Mozambique|June 1, 1990|85.4|76.3|
|Niger|Dec. 12, 1988|43.9|27.0|
|Senegal|Nov. 21, 1988|127.7|37.1|
|Togo|May 31, 1989|26.9|15.4|
|Uganda|Apr. 17, 1989|159.4|77.2|
|TOTAL||1,410.5|736.3|

1/Resources under Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility Arrangements may be provided from the Adjustment Facility within the Special Disbursement Account and from the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility Trust. Source: International Monetary Fund, Financial Statements of the General Department of the SDR Department and Accounts Administered by the IMP, (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, December 1990), p. 60.
A more nuanced interpretation of the link between aid and investment is that the selection process reflected in the described behavior of agencies charged with reviewing and approving projects under AIJ is related to a deeper set of bilateral ties that reduce otherwise insurmountable transaction costs. The selection model results are consistent with this interpretation, as are estimates from alternative recursive models. Moreover, since projects without agency approval are not observed, it is impossible to distinguish between the two interpretations. For policy, this distinction is substantive, since it implies that hurdles would remain related to transaction costs, even if agency approval processes were transparent, objective and devoid of policy bias. This, in turn, would suggest that a broader set of institutions are needed to reduce project transaction costs other than those currently embodied in traditional bilateral ties.

Even so, under current conditions, the findings suggest that national policy goals did not exclusively drive the AIJ investment process, leaving room for host countries to influence outcomes by taking up specific policies. Not surprisingly, there is evidence that host-country efforts to put in place institutions fostering a positive general investment climate, political stability and a commitment to international environmental law influenced AIJ investments in a positive way. By implication, countries that take policies that support investment generally and build the specific institutions needed to facilitate Kyoto-related markets will likely see greater investment flows under the Protocol’s Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism provisions.

# **References**

Alesina Alberto and Beatrice Weder. 2002. Do corrupt governments receive less foreign Aid? American Economic Review 92 (September), 1126-1137.

- Arrhenius, Svante. 1896. The influence of the carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Philosophical Magazine Series 5 (41), 237-276.

- Bernstein, Paul M. W. David Montgomery, and Thomas F. Rutherford 1999. Global impacts of the Kyoto Agreement, results from the MS-MRT model. Resource and Energy Economics 21 (August), 375-413.

- Bertram, Geoffrey. 1992. Tradeable emission permits and the control of greenhouse gases. Journal of Development Studies 28 (April), 423-446.

- Carraro, Carlo 1999. Introduction. In Carraro, C. (Ed.), International Environmental Agreements on Climate Change. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston.

22
- 51 -

- 9/ In part, the universal decline in corporate tax rates reflects the effects of international tax competition as developing countries have responded to the lower rates recently introduced by a number of developed countries. The diminished availability of foreign tax credits has also contributed to this phenomenon.

- 10/ The presumption in this instance is that lower tax rates will meke it worthwhile for the taxpayers to devote fewer resources to concealing his true income from the tax authorities. Unfortunately, none of the tax reform studies could shed any empirical light on this issue.

- 11/ This statement does not apply to the traditional excises on alcoholic beverages, gasoline and tobacco products which have quite different rationales as revenue instruments.

- 12/ The presumptive income tax in Colombia served a number of beneficial purposes. In addition to curbing evasion and improving progressivity, it was a useful instrument for reducing lock-in effects, taxing imputed income from real estate, and generally correcting for a number of "timing" problems inherent in the application of income taxes. Approximately one third of all companies and individual taxpayers were taxed on this basis before the tax was repealed in 1989.

- 13/ Here the tax design issue is that of striking a balance between the desire to tax economic rents on previous corporate investment and establishing an attractive tax environment for new investment.

- 14/ In the case of both Turkey and Mexico, these taxes are creditable against corporate tax obligations so they imply no extra burden for profitable companies that comply with the law.

- 15/ On the other hand, Colombia unified its VAT rate structure for administrative reasons when the tax was extended to more retailing outlets in 1983.

- 16/ The collection of tax reform studies suggest that it is important to avoid blindly adopting the rules of thumb that often dictate the calculation of tax incidence in developed countries. That is, the incidence of a tax must be examined within the specific context of a particular developing country and there is no reason to believe that an incidence rule that is appropriate in one developing country would also be appropriate in another. For example, some indirect taxes, such as tariffs that are levied in the presence of quantitative restrictions, may be significantly more progressive than any direct tax. Moreover, the rules of thumb appropriate for a closed economy may be wholly unsuitable when applied to an open economy.
An increasingly sophisticated empirical literature attempts to directly estimate the knowledge production function using patents as a proxy for new knowledge. Jaffe and Trajtenberg (2002) and Griliches (1990) offer as stylized facts that in cross section patents are probably roughly proportional to R&D implying an elasticity of unity, while the “within” panel dimension suggests strongly decreasing returns to scale.<sup>5</sup> The few studies in the second category (Hausman, Hall and Griliches 1984,1986; Blundell, Griffith and Windmeijer 2002), along with Blundell, Griffith and Van Reenen (1995) that looks at the impact of market structure on innovation, have contributed important advances in the theory of count data estimators in a panel context. The latter two focus particularly on modeling dynamics and controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity that renders cross sectional estimates suspect. In this sense, they parallel closely the recent literature on dynamic panel modeling with continuous dependent variables (Arellano and Bond 1991, Blundell and Bond 1998). Both issues are found to be of central importance in modeling the innovation process and generating consistent parameter estimates.

All the panel studies confirm the stylized fact of decreasing returns to scale. Hausman, Hall and Griliches’s (1984) non-dynamic estimates of the elasticity of patents with respect to R&D are in the range of 0.3-0.6, depending on the technique employed. Hall, Griliches and Hausman’s (1986) estimates hover around .35 and are similar to those estimated in a dynamic context by Blundell, Griffith and Windmeijer (2002) of around 0.5. Using industry level panel data Kortum and Lerner (2000) find an elasticity of .48.52. There thus seems to be support in the micro level within estimates for the more pessimistic view of increasing difficulty and congestion.

Nevertheless, the firm level estimates, and to a lesser degree those at the industry level, may miss the spillover effects that one firm’s R&D may contribute to another firm or industries knowledge generation effort. The literature on estimating the returns to R&D, for example, finds differences of several multiples between the private returns to

> 5 In cross section, Bound et. al (1984) introduce a wide variety of estimates, the most comparable being around .32-.38 and Pakes and Griliches (1980) offer an estimate of .61 although Griliches (1990) suggests that when accounting for reporting error, there is little evidence of diminishing return in cross section. See also Klette and Kortum (2002) for a discussion of the stylized facts around the patents and R&D.

2