# **Table 1: Research Agenda Looking Forward**

## Priorities for:

||**Analysis**|**Data**|
|---|---|---|
|**1. Transformations**| Understanding the relationship between<br>change in an economy’s structure and broader<br>development goals, including poverty<br>reduction.<br> Roles of states, markets and the private sector<br>in promoting economic transformation.<br> Appropriate policies at each stage of<br>development.<br> Governance issues for industrial upgrading<br>and structural change.<br> Role of agriculture versus other sectors;<br>sectoral priorities and trade-offs.| Macro data, especially on sectoral composition<br>of output.<br> Better data on infrastructure investments.<br> Better data on policy interventions over time.<br> Firm-level data, especially to study productivity<br>growth and firm-industry dynamics.<br> Informal sector data, to analyze the factors<br>behind entry into and exit from informality.<br> Household-level data (archival + new) to link to<br>welfare outcomesand to<br> integrate with<br>macroeconomic/sectoral/public finance data<br>including sub-national.|
|Relevant country types:<br>status;middle-income e|Low income predominantly agrarian or resource-rich<br>conomies seeking to upgradeindustries and diversify|economies seeking to move into middle-income<br>from manufacturinginto services.|
|**2. Opportunities**| Better understanding of why some countries<br>and places attain faster poverty reduction and<br>more inclusive development than others at a<br>given rate of economic growth.| Household, facility-level, public expenditure<br>tracking, service delivery data.<br> Data disaggregated by gender<br> Financial services data.|
|| Governance challenges in assuring better<br>education, health and social protection.<br> Information to strengthen provider incentives.<br> Policies to enhance access to finance.<br> More inclusive global integration and/or<br>regional integration, linked to global markets.| New measures of inequality of opportunity.|
|Relevant country types:<br>MDGs;regions with low|High levels of inequality and/or slow rates of poverty<br>levels ofeducationalattainment andhigh infantmor|reduction; poor performance in moving towards<br>talityrates.|
|**3. Risks**| More effective and cost-efficient social<br>protection, including more automatic<br>stabilizers in poor countries.<br> Fragile and conflict-ridden states.| Panel data sets tracking same households or<br>firms over time.<br> Addressing core data weaknesses in fragile<br>states.|
|| Managing new environmental risks.<br> Addressing financial-sector vulnerabilities.<br> Global governance reform and policies to<br>support new multipolar growth and<br>interconnected risk.<br> Managing macro-financial risks posed by<br>globalization.| Better data on environmental and natural<br>resource risk factors, their consequences, and<br>the costs of amelioration.<br> Data on trade flows and trade policies; made<br>available at no cost.|
|Relevant country types:<br>drought;regionshighly|Fragile states, resource-rich economies, regions expo<br>integrated withglobaltrade,financial markets orpeo|sed to extreme weather conditions such as floods or<br>ple’smovement.|
|**4. Results**<br>Relevant countrytypes:| Measures of country performance, including<br>benchmarking and identifying comparators.<br> Broader approach to “evaluation,”<br>emphasizing external validity, drawing on<br>richer economic modeling, more diverse types<br>of data, multiple disciplines, and tailored to<br>strategic knowledge gaps in the above areas.<br>All developingcountries; countries with a high share| New types of data (mixed qualitative-<br>quantitative methods).<br> New modeling tools suitable for “non-assigned”<br>interventions.<br> Different types of results measures (rates of<br>return, poverty and other human development<br>indicators)<br>of aid to GDP; regions where aid results are weak.|

<u>12</u>