rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
resources to exploit opportunities. They are more capable of network formation and information collection, as well as network contacts monitoring (Shane and Nicolaou, 2015), which facilitates the assessment, procurement, and use of resources, all contributing to entrepreneurial success. In summary, personality traits significantly influence labor market outcomes, and the nature of these traits (i.e., task-oriented versus relationship-oriented) may be important in determining the types of work (i.e., paid work, self-employment) that both men and women engage in.

# **3. Data and descriptive statistics**

# **3.1. Data**

The paper uses data from the Ghana Informal Sector Measurement Study conducted from September to November 2022 by the World Bank and the Institute of Statistical Social and Economic Research (ISSER) of the University of Ghana. The survey contains rich information on household and individual demographics, and economic, social and geographic variables. In addition, the survey includes valuable information on individual gender role attitudes and personality traits, allowing for exploring the drivers of labor market participation and employment choice, and understanding the unique roles that gender role attitudes and personality traits play in shaping these decisions.

The survey adopted a multi-stage sampling approach where the first stage involved the purposive selection of districts within the Ashanti and Northern regions of Ghana. In the Ashanti region, Asokore Mampong, Asokwa, Kumasi Metropolitan Area (Bantama, Manhyia North, Manhyia South, Nhyiaeso and Subin municipals), Kwadaso municipal, Oforikrom, Old Tafo municipal and Oforikrom municipal were selected, while the Sagnerigu, Tamale Central, Tamale South, Central Gonja, North East Gonja, Gushiegu, Kumbungu, Mion, Nanton, Savelugu and Tolon were selected in the Northern region for the study. Following the purposive selection of these districts, the second stage involved the random selection of 134 enumeration areas (EAs) from these districts using probability proportional to size (PPS). All the districts and EAs in Kumasi were urban, while the Northern region covered both urban and rural EAs. The purposive selection of the districts was driven by the study’s objectives, which is to gain insights into informality in general, and rural agribusiness development, particularly in the northen region.

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**Table 1. Panel A: Variable Description and Data Sources**

|Variable|Description and Data Source|
|---|---|
|_Firm-Level Variables_||
|Access to finance<br>Firm size (employees)|Dummy variable equal to 1 if the firm has access to bank finance<br>(loan, overdraft or line of credit) from World Bank Enterprise Surveys.<br>Number of permanent full-time employees from World Bank<br>Enterprise Surveys.|
|Manufacturing<br>Exporter<br>Foreign-owned<br>Government-owned|Dummy variable equal to 1 if the firm is in the manufacturing sector<br>from World Bank Enterprise Surveys.<br>Dummy variable equal to 1 if 10% or more of sales are exported<br>directly or indirectly by the firm from World Bank Enterprise Surveys.<br>Dummy variable equal to 1 if 50% or more of the firm is owned by<br>foreign organizations from World Bank Enterprise Surveys.<br>Dummy variable equal to 1 if 10% or more of the firm is owned by the<br>government from World Bank Enterprise Surveys.|
|Firm age|Age of the firm inyears from World Bank Enterprise Surveys.|
|_Country-Level Variables_||
|Lerner index|Lerner index constructed using variables from Bankscope (see<br>Appendix 2).|
|Concentration 3<br>Herfindahl index<br>Inflation rate<br>Financial development<br>Credit information index<br>Share of government-owned banks|Fraction of total assets held by top 3 banks from Bankscope.<br>Herfindahl index calculated as the sum over all banks in the country of<br>the squared market share (in terms of assets) of each bank from<br>Bankscope.<br>Inflation calculated as the annual change in the GDP deflator from the<br>World Development Indicators (WDI) World Bank.<br>Domestic credit to the private sector (fraction of GDP) from WDI.<br>Depth of credit information index is a measure of the coverage, scope<br>and accessibility of credit information available through either a public<br>credit registry or a private credit bureau, both by law, and in practice.<br>(0-6) obtained from Doing Business Indicators.<br>Fraction of banking system's assets in banks that are 50% or more<br>government-owned from the World Bank Regulation and Supervision<br>Survey.|

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whole country. A village was randomly selected from each commune, and about 15 households were selected randomly from the village.

The large-sample VHLSSs have a sample size of about 46,000 households that are designed to be representative at the provincial level. While these large-sample surveys only collect income data, a sub-sample of the VHLSSs (the small-sample VHLSSs of around 9,000 households) collect data on both income and expenditure. Since policy discourse in the country is typically based on poverty and inequality analysis using expenditure data, we mostly analyze such data in this paper. We obtain the province-level expenditure using Elbers _et al._ ’s (2003) small area (poverty-map) estimation method (see Appendix B for more detailed description for the data). For robustness checks, we also provide some alternate estimates using per capita income in Appendix A, which offer qualitatively similar results.

# **2.2. Overall trends in economic growth, inequality, and poverty**

We provide in Table 1 the country trends in (real) per capita income, expenditure, poverty, and inequality. Between 2002 and 2020, per capita incomes increased significantly from 4,565 thousand (Vietnamese) dong to 15,156 thousand dong.<sup>3</sup> Similarly, real per capita expenditure more than tripled from 3,476 thousand dong in 2002 to 14,251 thousand dong in 2020.<sup>4</sup> This rapid economic growth has been widely attributed to important policy changes that took place in Viet Nam in the last two decades (see, e.g., Justino and Litchfield, 2014, Benjamin _et al._ , 2017 for a

> 3 On average, slightly more than 18,000 Vietnamese dong equals one US dollar in this period (World Bank, 2018a). 4 There is a large difference in income and expenditure values between the 2008 and the 2010 VHLSS (Table 1). This difference is mainly because of a change in the recall period in the questionnaires. From 2002 to 2008, the survey asked for household expenditure or income in the past 12 months. However, from 2010 onward, these values were asked for the past month and then multiplied by 12 to estimate annual values. As a result, there is a break in values in per capita expenditure between values before 2010 and those since 2010. We have not made any adjustment to our data following a change in the recall period; for more related discussion on this topic, see Deaton and Kozel (2005).

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(Equations 3 and 4 in Table 9). The equations for budgetary autonomy indicate that a one-point increase in the indicator is associated with more than 19 points in the PISA reading score for the school. After adjusting for covariates, the one-point increase in the indicator is associated with an increase of 9.4 points in the PISA reading score.

The equations for personnel autonomy also show similar associations. Schools that make personnel decisions at the school level tend to have higher PISA scores. Table 9 shows that a one-point increase in the implementation indicator of personnel autonomy is associated with an increase of 10.6 points in the school’s average PISA reading score. After adjusting for covariates, personnel autonomy at the school level is associated with an increase in the math test score of 9.5 points. Table 9 also shows that the indicators for school council participation, and for student assessment, are associated with higher reading scores. This effect, however, tends to be attenuated once the equation includes some key covariates.

The results of Table 9, particularly in the area of personnel autonomy, are consistent with the results of a recent factor analysis of SABER indicators for East Asia (Arcia, Lewis and Patrinos 2012) which shows that teacher management is one of two broad factors that explain most of the variation in SABER indicators of policy intent in 20 areas of influence in education.

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Policy Research Working Paper 7497

# **Abstract**

Although women’s police centers have been gaining popularity as a measure to address domestic violence, to date no quantitative evaluations of their impacts on the incidence of domestic violence or any other manifestations of gender equality have been done. This paper estimates the effects of women’s police stations in Brazil on female homicides, as a measure of the most severe form of domestic violence. Given that a high fraction of female deaths among women ages 15 to 49 years can be attributed to aggression by an intimate partner, female homicides appear the best available proxy for severe domestic violence considering the scarcity of data on domestic violence. The paper uses a panel of 2,074 municipalities and takes advantage of the gradual rollout of women’s police stations from 2004 to 2009, to estimate the effect of establishing a women’s police station on the municipal female homicide rate. Although the analysis does not find an association on average, women’s police stations appear to be highly effective among some groups of women: women living in metropolitan areas and younger women. Establishing a women’s police station in a metropolitan municipality is associated with a reduction in the homicide rate by 1.23 deaths per 100,000 women (which roughly amounts to a 17 percent reduction in the average homicide rate in metropolitan municipalities). The reduction in the homicide rate of women ages 15 to 24 is even higher: 5.57 deaths per 100,000 women. Qualitative work suggests that better economic opportunities and less traditional social norms in metropolitan areas may explain the heterogeneous impacts of women’s police stations in metropolitan areas and outside them.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Global Practice Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at eperova@ worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
instrument on the endogenous variable. It can be shown that a higher partial R<sup>2</sup> results in a lower asymptotic bias in the IV estimator relative to the OLS if the exclusion restriction is violated. The Kleinbergen-Paap statistics are a panel data variant of the Cragg-Donald statistic, which has been introduced as a weak instrument test by Stock, Wright, and Yogo (2002). Critical values for different tests can be derived for the Kleinbergen-Paap statistic, the most conservative of which for our case has values of around 20. Next, the OIR test allows testing for the validity of the exclusion restrictions if the endogenous variables are overidentified (which is why we wanted to have two instruments in the first place). The null hypothesis is that the exclusion restrictions are met, that is, the instruments are valid. Although the test is regarded as low powered, it provides a useful check on the identification strategy. While all the other IV-related test statistics refer to a first stage in which the sole instrument is derived from the probit model, the OIR test is presented for a linear first stage using the two IVs directly. Lastly, under the assumption that we have a set of valid instruments, we can test whether or not the variable we instrumented for is indeed endogenous. The null hypothesis here is the exogeneity of that variable.

Starting with table 15, we look at the effect of the program on the labor force participation of beneficiaries. The important result in the first two columns is that the inclusion of the additional control variables reduces the estimated effect of program participation by more than one-half and reduces the significance level from 1 percent to insignificance. This is a strong indicator that the treatment variable is endogenous and that the OLS results are likely biased. The IV results, in contrast, are highly significant and have a positive sign. They imply that program participation has the effect of boosting labor force participation or, probably more likely, reducing the retreat of beneficiaries from the labor force. The likely implication of these results is that, while individuals who are not in the labor force are more likely to receive the benefit in the first place, the actual effect of the program is that beneficiaries tend to join the labor force. The OIR test p-values are not close to rejection of the _H0_ , except in the case of women, and the exogeneity of the treatment variable can be rejected.

We now analyze the counterintuitive result of an overall positive effect on the labor force participation of beneficiaries. We start by dividing the sample into two age-groups: beneficiaries who can be expected to be active in the labor market and beneficiaries who have probably dropped out of the labor market because of old age. We have decided to make the cutoff at age 70. We then divide each age-group also by gender. The first three columns of table 15 present the results for the relatively younger cohort. The overall result is still positive, but only statistically significant among men. The 30
A National Integrated Social Information System (SIIS) was created from _Chile Solidario_ ’s Management Information System (MIS). One of the central tools for the well-functioning of a social protection system is the intensive and coordinated use of information for the decision-making process. The management information system of _Chile Solidario_ was the model and initial module for the integration of information available in national institutions in a modular system that can add up new initiatives. While at the end of 2002 _Chile Solidario_ ’s MIS contained information of a little over 170,000 people, in December 2009 the SIIS recorded data of about 12.6 million people – 75 percent of the national population.

Thanks to the global database of beneficiaries, the intervention changed the criteria for the allocation and distribution of resources, going beyond the allocation of “quotas” by municipality based on general indicators calculated on average, to cover specific beneficiaries (“with name and known address”).

Institutions participating in _Chile Solidario_ also achieved efficiency gains using the program registration as their targeting tool in selecting extreme poor beneficiaries. Provider institutions do not need to identify beneficiaries anymore, since they are referred from _Chile Solidario_ . The good targeting performance of _Chile Solidario_ is therefore transferred to participating institutions.

Finally, the strengthening of inter-institutional relations improved the efficiency and effectiveness of the delivery of social services to the poorest at all levels of government. The local coordination efforts led by municipalities enabled a more efficient organization of social assistance delivery, coordination between different municipal units and coordination among various local institutions, and ultimately strengthened the leadership role of the municipality in terms of social protection.

# **Costs**

Calculating the implementation costs of _Chile Solidario_ is a difficult task given the diversity of the components, and a management model that draws resources from external programs and institutions. Administrative data allow however to review the costs of components financed totally or in part by _Chile Solidario_ . The _Chile Solidario_ budget has been organized into 4 areas of expenditure: (i) Family support service, (ii) Family Protection and Exit cash transfers, (iii) Programs fully or partially financed by resources transferred to provider institutions, and (iv) Administrative costs related to the operation of 16
- A treatment group assigned to receive costless registration for the business registration certificate (745 firms)

- A treatment group assigned to receive costless registration for the business registration certificate, as well as for a tax-payer identification number (293 firms)

- A treatment group assigned to receive costless registration for the business registration certificate, along with an invitation to information sessions at a bank where business bank accounts were offered (1,207 firms)

#  A control group of 757 firms.

We discuss each of these treatments in more detail below. Table 2 shows the summary statistics for all four groups, showing that the groups are balanced when compared with the pure control group. The groups are of different sizes for two reasons. First, since based on previous studies we did not expect high take-up of the tax registration, our aim was to test whether this same result also applied in Malawi, without expecting to then have sufficient power to test the impact of tax registration on subsequent firm performance. In contrast, since the main benefits of formalization appear in theory to occur through the (non-tax) business registration, we wanted a sufficient sample to have power to measure the impacts of this type of formalization on firm performance. Second, the partner private bank requested a larger sample size to offer its services to, which is why the last treatment group is larger.

# **3.4 The Costless Business Registration Intervention**

All three treatment groups share the main intervention of making _business registration costless_ . To do this, the team<sup>13</sup> visited business owners in the treatment groups and offered assistance in registering their businesses, while conveying to them a single-page information flyer with the potential benefits offered by registration. For those that were interested, we assisted them in filling out the Business Registration form, took the required photo, and delivered their entire application to the DRG, including paying the Business Registration fee on their behalf. Once ready – on

> 13 Although this intervention was led by Innovations for Poverty Action (similarly to the baseline survey), the team presented itself as a separate NGO with a different name (BRC) to reduce the risk of linking the survey to the intervention. Additionally, individual enumerators were not deployed in the same city to conduct both the survey and the intervention to again minimize the risks of survey effects on take-up.

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# **MACROPRUDENTIAL STRESS TESTING OF CREDIT RISK: A PRACTICAL APPROACH FOR POLICY MAKERS**<sup>_∗_</sup>

DANIEL BUNCIC<sup>¶</sup> MARTIN MELECKY<sup>§</sup>

**Abstract**

Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materializing credit risk. The authors apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.

**Keywords:** Macroprudential Supervision, Stress Test, Individual Bank Data, Eastern Europe.

**JEL Classification:** G28, E58, G21.

**Sectoral Board:** Financial Sector (FSE).

> _∗_ We thank Martin ˇCih ́ak, Joaquin Gutierrez and Mar ́ıa Soledad Mart ́ınez Per ́ıa for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. The views and opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not reflect those of the World Bank or its Executive Directors.

> _¶_ Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St. Gallen, Bodanstrasse 6, 9000 St. Gallen, Switzerland. Tel: +41 (71) 224 2604. Email: daniel.buncic@unisg.ch. Web: http://www.danielbuncic.com.

> _§_ Corresponding Author: Financial and Private Sector Development Europe and Central Asia, World Bank Group, Mail stop H4-410. Tel.: +1 202 473 1924. Email: mmelecky@worldbank.org. Web: http://mmelecky. ic.cz.

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