_<u>Table 4: Sectoral effects of full unilateral trade liberalization</u>_

|||<br>**Im**|<br>**ports a**|<br>**nd Lo**|<br>**cal Sale**|<br> <br>**s**|<br>**Exports**|**and p**|**roduct**|**ion**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||**tm**|Δ**M**|**M/D**|Δ**S**|Δ**Pd**|ΔΕ**x**|**Ex/Xp**|Δ**Xp**|Δ**Px**|
||**Coffee**|6|13|8|-1|-1.4|5|101|4|-0.2|
|**re**|**Sugar Cane**|0|0|0|1|-2.2|0|0|1|-2.2|
|**ltu**|**Basic Grain**|26|55|11|-4|-6.8|27|3|-3|-6.6|
|**cu**|**Other Agri. Products**|5|6|14|0|-2.7|12|26|3|-2.1|
|**gri**|**Livestock**|2|2|4|1|-2.1|10|8|2|-2.0|
|**A**|**Forestry**|1|-8|1|1|-4.1|19|2|1|-4.0|
||**Fishery**|6|24|4|1|0.7|-2|6|1|0.7|
|**ng**<br>|**Mining**|0|-5|85|-2|-1.1|3|55|1|-0.5|
|**ini**<br>**Ene**|**Electricity Gas Water**|6|12|2|-1|-2.1|8|0|-1|-2.1|
|**M**<br>|**Water Distribution**|0|0|0|-1|-0.8|0|0|-1|-0.8|
|**ng**|**Meat and Fish Products**|10|25|4|-1|-1.8|6|53|2|-0.9|
|**essi**|**Sugar Producs**|7|18|1|-1|-1.2|4|33|1|-0.9|
|**oc**|**Dairy**|9|18|18|-3|-2.3|6|22|-1|-1.8|
|**Pr**|**Other Food**|5|3|35|1|-3.9|18|7|2|-3.6|
|**od**|**Beverages**|6|12|8|-1|-1.8|6|3|-1|-1.7|
|**Fo**|**Tobacco**|0|-2|85|-1|-0.5|1|96|0|-0.1|
|**ng**|**Textiles Clothing & Leather**|4|4|38|-2|-1.8|5|55|1|-0.9|
|**uri**|**Wood Products**|5|7|23|-1|-2.0|7|12|-1|-1.7|
|**ct**|**Paper Print Products**|3|1|55|-3|-1.3|2|3|-3|-1.2|
|**ufa**|**Refined Oil**|7|13|26|-6|-0.7|-3|8|-6|-0.7|
|**an**|**Chemicals**|2|0|71|-1|-1.7|6|18|0|-1.4|
|**r M**|**Glass No-Metal Products**|2|2|35|-1|-0.7|2|7|-1|-0.7|
|**the**|**Metal Products**|2|1|72|0|-1.6|7|16|1|-1.4|
|**O**|**Machinery and Equipment**|3|1|83|2|-2.9|15|73|10|-1.0|
|**s**|**Construction**|0|0|0|1|-0.5|0|0|1|-0.5|
|**ice**|**Commerce**|0|0|0|-1|-0.4|0|0|-1|-0.4|
|**erv**|**Other Services**|0|-3|5|0|-0.9|3|2|0|-0.9|
|**S**|**Transport Services**|0|-5|6|0|-1.6|6|9|0|-1.5|
||**Total**|3|2|23|-1|-1.5|6|12|0|-1.3|
|||**_-_**|**_-- Agg_**|**_regate_**|**_sectors_**|**_average _**|**_s ---_**||||
||**Agriculture**|12|23|7|-0.4|-2.9|7|23|1.1|-2.5|
||**Food Processing**|5|6|21|-0.7|-2.3|6|28|1.1|-1.8|
||**Mining and Energy**|0|-4|48|-0.8|-1.6|3|12|-0.4|-1.5|
||**Other Manufacturing**|3|2|57|-2.9|-1.3|5|21|-1.6|-1.0|
||**Services**|0|-4|3|-0.2|-0.8|5|2|-0.1|-0.8|

Notes: **tm** represents initial tariff rates, Δ **M** the percent variation in total import volumes with respect to the initial levels, **M/D** the ratio of imports to domestic demand (the sectoral import dependency, calculated using pre-liberalization levels), Δ **S** the percent variation in the volumes of domestic sales of domestic output, Δ **Pd** the percent variation in domestic prices for local sales, Δ **Ex** the percent variation in the volumes of exports, **Ex/Xp** the ratio of exports to domestic output (the sectoral export orientation), Δ **Xp** the percent change of domestic output, and Δ **Px** the percent change of output prices.

For the economy as a whole, these low or moderate domestic market share losses are reflected in small declines of producer prices for local sales ( Δ Pd). Some of these effects are larger when disaggregated sectors are examined, and complementary analyses considering very disaggregated sectors of production may be needed to identify specific sensitive commodities.<sup>17</sup>

> 17 These usually analyses consider data at the tariff line level, i.e., at a very fine degree of disaggregation. Trade data at this level may be available, but production, consumption and other important data needed to calibrate CGE models are normally available at a much more aggregate level. Therefore tariff lines analyses are normally partial equilibrium analyses and they should be considered in conjunction with the general equilibrium analysis presented here.

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