As an additional robustness test of the LFS data, we also compare results of a cross-section FLP model applied to LFS data and Household Budget Survey (HBS) data collected in 2007.<sup>3</sup> This is a simple cross-section logit model using exactly the same variables used for the individual panel short-term model in Equation (3).

# **Data**

The Morocco LFS is a household survey covering all residents of Morocco. The sample size is about 60,000 households, 40,000 urban and 20,000 rural. The questionnaire contains information on all household members, approximately 270,000 individuals every year. This sample is divided into four equal independent sub-samples of 15,000 households each interviewed quarterly. Each sub-sample is representative at the regional level and by urban and rural areas. Sampling is a random three stages process.

For the quarterly medium-term model, we use all available rounds of the quarterly LFS of Morocco since its beginning in 1999 and until the end of 2012. This amounts to 14 years and 56 points in time. We also have 14 regions that represent the panel component, which turns the quarterly data set into 784 observations. For this model we only use FLP, average education and GDP per capita or, alternatively, sector Value Added per capita and the sector share of value added per capita. FLP and education variables are quarterly and by region while GDP per capita, sector value added and the share of sector value added were available per quarter but not per region. For education, we use three indicators: no diploma (base category), middle education (primary, college, professional qualifications and special qualifications) and higher education (technician, advanced technician, completed secondary, university, institutes and special schools).<sup>4</sup> For the individual panel short-term model, we use the panel component of the LFS over the period 2007-2011. Starting from 2007, half of the households are re-interviewed every year in the same quarter, which makes the survey a quarterly panel survey with one time lag of one year. Moreover, since 2007, interviews are conducted all year long by means of a computerized system where data input occurs with Personal Digital Assistance (PDA) devices and data input verification is carried out both automatically with a special software and with controllers in real time. This allows interviewers to correct most data input errors during the interview and makes the surveys very consistent over time.

The variables we use in the short-term model are of three types: variables related to women's individual characteristics, variables related to household characteristics and the quarterly GDP to reflect overall economic conditions. Individual variables include age, education and marital status. Household variables include the type of activity of the household head and spouse (active or not), education of the head of the household, and variables related to the structure of the household (percentage of inactive women and not in school, children under 6 years old, children

> 3 This is the only year between 2007 and 2011 when both the LFS and HBS surveys were administered. 4 These terms are lose translations from the Moroccan French system and should not be taken as corresponding to US or UK degrees.

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