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**Table 3. Exports of Non-members by destinations (FTA Members vs Non-members markets) compared to the baseline in 2030**

|||**CPT**|**PP**|**TPP**|**12**|**RC**|**EP**|**FT**|**AAP**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||**Members**|**Non-**<br>**members**|**Members**|**Non-**<br>**members**|**Members**|**Non-**<br>**members**|**Members**|**Non-**<br>**members**|
|**Non-**<br>**members’**|$ billion|3,756.6|24,087.0|5,497.1|19,149.3|5,292.1|15,573.8|5,718.6|11,011.3|
|**exports in**<br>**2030**|share,<br>%|_13.5_|_86.5_|_22.3_|_77.7_|_25.4_|_74.6_|_34.2_|_65.8_|
|**Change to**|$ billion|-63.2|38.3|-117.2|63.3|-65.8|7.7|-276.7|64.5|
|**baseline**<br>**in 2030**|in<br>shares<br>in p.p.|_-0.2_|_0.2_|_-0.4_|_0.4_|_-0.2_|_0.2_|_-1.2_|_1.2_|

Source: Authors’ estimates (*share in total Non-members’ exports) Under CPTPP exports to signatory countries would increase from $684 billion to $869 billion by 2030 as compared to the baseline, however, there will be some trade diversion with a reduction of CPTPP exports to non-member countries by $57.3 billion. The CPTPP countries that benefit the most from this export creation are New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Canada, and Singapore (their exports to CPTPP will increase by more than 25%) –as a result of facing the highest reductions in trade barriers on CPTPP markets. As to major destination markets, there will be the greatest increases of flows to RCEP/TPP joint members (as the most numerous group) in absolute terms ($141 billion), and to Other TPP members - Canada, Chile, Mexico, and Peru - in relative terms (by 31.7%). At the same time, CPTPP exports will decline for China, the European Union, the United States, Russia, and the Rest of the world. CPTPP exports directed to CPTPP markets would increase the most in Food processing - up by 143.6%, Wearing apparel and leather by 93%, Chemical, rubber, plastic products by 29%, and Textiles by 55%. Exports of services (Trade and transport, and Communication) will also observe a growth to CPTPP markets – by 29% and 12.7% respectively. Noticeable, exports of Food processing will enjoy growth to both member and non-member countries. At the same time, trade diversion from non-members is expected mostly in sectors such as Agriculture (e.g. -9% from China), Electronics (-2% from Other RCEP countries), Machinery and equipment (-1.8% from Rest of the world), and Other manufacturing (- 2.7% from the United States).

The TPP12 is projected to boost exports to signatory countries from $2,779.5 billion to $3,207.1 billion by 2030 as compared to the baseline, while exports to non-members will go down by 105$ billion. Vietnam is expected to observe the largest reorientation of exports to member states (mostly to the United States) – by more than 20 percentage points. The importance of TPP12 markets as export destinations will also noticeably increase for New Zealand, Australia, and Malaysia. For the United States, 35.7% of its exports would be directed to TPP12 members by 2030 as compared to 32.4% under baseline conditions. In turn, more exports of member countries will be destined to the US market – the US share in total exports of member states will elevate from 13.7% to 14.9%. As to other export destinations, TPP12 members will increase their exports the most at RCEP/TPP joint members market – by 27%, the United States - by 13.8% (mostly, wearing apparel and textiles), and Other TPP market – by 5.6%, while contracting to all other regions. Exports directed to TPP12 members would increase in all