# **1 Introduction**

Climate change is likely to alter the water cycle over southern Africa and, by extension, affect water availability and the frequency and severity of extreme events such as droughts, floods, and cyclones. Climate models generally show decreasing rainfall for southeastern Africa (IPCC, 2007b; Hudson and Jones, 2002; Tadross et al., 2005), which is likely to result in a decline in available surface water and decrease in river runoff (De Wit and Stankiewicz, 2006; Arnell, 2004). Mozambique is at the downstream of several major river basins in southern Africa - Zambezi, Ruvuma and Limpopo – all of which are projected to have diminishing runoff of 2540% (Arnell, 1999), and especially the dry season (June-August) is projected to get drier across Mozambique in the future (IPCC, 2007b). At the same time cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean is expected to increase as a result of increased sea surface temperatures (Lal, 2001; McDonald et al _._ , 2005), which tend to result in widespread flooding in the region. As a result of changing temperature and precipitation patterns, Mozambique ranks high in the climate change index based on annual and seasonal indicators of temperature and precipitation (Baettig et al., 2007).

In light of these scenarios, climate change poses a major challenge to development in Mozambique and is further evidenced by recent climate-related disasters. The ten most serious disasters have occurred during the past two decades; four of these since 2000 (EM-DAT, 2007). Mozambique’s vulnerability to climate extremes is exacerbated by extreme poverty and in the current Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), Mozambique has recognized the need to adapt to climate variability and change in order to reduce people’s vulnerability (GoM, 2006a).

Mozambique is one of the major recipients of official development assistance (ODA) in the world (OECD, World Bank)<sup>5</sup> and strongly depends on donor investments. As the linkages between climate impacts and development are becoming increasingly apparent, donors seek to better integrate policies and measures addressing climate impacts into decision-making. This mainstreaming process aims at reducing climate vulnerability and ensuring long-term sustainability of investments (Klein, 2002; Huq et al., 2003; Agrawala, 2005). This paper provides an analytical framework (section 2) and rationale (section 3) for mainstreaming climate adaptation into ODA activities in Mozambique. It evaluates current ODA activities and climatesensitive donor investments to support adaptation to climate impacts and reduce climate vulnerability (section 4), discusses institutional barriers to mainstream adaptation into development initiatives and identifies opportunities available to relevant actors to overcome these barriers (section 5).

# **2 Analytical framework**

Decision-making on climate adaptation in the context of development assistance requires knowledge of climate impacts on development goals and ongoing adaptation activities within the donor community. This section outlines the analytical framework used to identify and analyze the barriers and opportunities for mainstreaming of climate adaptation.

> 5 OECD/World Bank: Mozambique ODA statistics. Accessible at: www.oecd.org

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