rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Forest cover change in space and
            time : combining the von Thunen and forest transition theories
This paper presents a framework for
            analyzing tropical deforestation and reforestation using the
            von Thunen model as its starting point: land is allocated to
            the use which yields the highest rent, and the rents of
            various land uses are determined by location. Forest cover
            change therefore becomes a question of changes in rent of
            forest versus non-forest use. While this is a simple and
            powerful starting point, more intriguing issues arise when
            this is applied to analyze real cases. An initial shift in
            the rent of one particular land use generates feedbacks
            which affect the rent of all land uses. For example, a new
            technology in extensive agriculture should make this land
            use more profitable and lead to more forest clearing, but
            general equilibrium effects (changes in prices and local
            wages) can modify or even reverse this conclusion. Another
            issue is how a policy change or a shift in broader market,
            technological, and institutional forces will affect various
            land use rents. The paper deals with three such areas:
            technological progress in agriculture, land tenure regimes,
            and community forest management. The second part of the
            paper links the von Thunen framework to the forest
            transition theory. The forest transition theory describes a
            sequence over time where a forested region goes through a
            period of deforestation before the forest cover eventually
            stabilizes and starts to increase. This sequence can be seen
            as a systematic pattern of change in the agricultural and
            forest land rents over time. Increasing agricultural rent
            leads to high rates of deforestation. The slow-down of
            deforestation and eventual reforestation is due to lower
            agricultural rents (the economic development path) and
            higher forest rent (the forest scarcity path). Various
            forces leading to these changes are discussed and supported
            by empirical evidence from different tropical regions.
Forest cover change in space and
            time : combining the von Thunen and forest transition theories
WPS4117

# **Forest Cover Change in Space and Time:**

## **Combining the von Thünen and Forest Transition Theories**

By Arild Angelsen<sup>1</sup> CIFOR and UMB World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4117, February 2007 _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._ 1 Associate Scientist, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia and Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB), Ås, Norway. Email: <u>arild.angelsen@umb.no.</u>

> This paper is prepared as a background paper for _At Loggerheads? Agricultural Expansion, Poverty Reduction, and Environment in the Tropical Forests,_ a World Bank Policy Research Report. I would like to thank Ken Chomitz and William Sunderlin (author of a second background paper) for a number of clarifying discussions throughout the process of writing this paper. Together with Baikuntha Aryal, Ronnie Babigumira, Atakelty Hailu, David Kaimowitz, Marty Luckert, Alexander Mather, Tom Rudel and Sven Wunder they also gave very useful suggestions to draft versions of the paper.

1
Watta satta : bride exchange and
            women's welfare in rural Pakistan
In a setting where husbands wield
            considerable coercive power, forms of marriage should adapt
            to protect the interests of women and their families. The
            authors study the pervasive marriage custom of watta satta
            in rural Pakistan, a bride exchange between families coupled
            with a mutual threat of retaliation. They show that watta
            satta may be a mechanism to coordinate the actions of two
            sets of in-laws, each of whom wish to restrain their
            sons-in-law but who only have the ability to restrain their
            sons. The authors' empirical results support this view.
            The likelihood of marital inefficiency, as measured by
            estrangement, domestic abuse, and wife's mental health,
            is significantly lower in watta satta arrangements as
            compared with conventional marriages, but only after
            properly accounting for selection.
Will markets direct investments
            under the Kyoto Protocol
Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries can
            meet treaty obligations by investing in projects that reduce
            or sequester greenhouse gases elsewhere. Prior to
            ratification, treaty participants agreed to launch
            country-based pilot projects, referred to collectively as
            Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ), to test novel aspects
            of the project-related provisions. Relying on a 10-year
            history of projects, the authors investigate the
            determinants of AIJ investment. Their findings suggest that
            national political objectives and possibly deeper cultural
            ties influenced project selection. This characterization
            differs from the market-based assumptions that underlie
            well-known estimates of cost-savings related to the
            Protocol's flexibility mechanisms. The authors conclude
            that if approaches developed under the AIJ programs to
            approve projects are retained, benefits from Kyoto's
            flexibility provisions will be less than those widely anticipated.
The impact of sea level rise on
            developing countries : a comparative analysis
Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate
            change is a serious global threat. The scientific evidence
            is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas
            emissions and associated global warming could well promote
            SLR of 1m-3m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup
            of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce
            a 5m SLR. In this paper, the authors have assessed the
            consequences of continued SLR for 84 developing countries.
            Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used
            to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated
            global data on critical impact elements (land, population,
            agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the
            inundation zones projected for 1-5m SLR. The results reveal
            that hundreds of millions of people in the developing world
            are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century, and
            accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe
            for many. At the country level, results are extremely
            skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small
            number of countries. For these countries (such as Vietnam,
            A. R. of Egypt, and The Bahamas), however, the consequences
            of SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others,
            including some of the largest (such as China), the absolute
            magnitudes of potential impacts are very large. At the other
            extreme, many developing countries experience limited
            impacts. Among regions, East Asia and the Middle East and
            North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. To date,
            there is little evidence that the international community
            has seriously considered the implications of SLR for
            population location and infrastructure planning in
            developing countries. The authors hope that the information
            provided in this paper will encourage immediate planning for adaptation.
Trade effects of regional standards
            liberalization : a heterogeneous firms approach
This study investigates trade effects of
            the regional liberalization of technical barriers to trade
            (TBTs) in the form of harmonization and mutual recognition
            agreements (MRAs) for testing procedures. The theoretical
            part of the paper is framed in terms of a heterogeneous
            firms approach. This paper adds to the existing literature
            by formalizing the effects of MRAs and harmonization
            initiatives on bilateral trade flows and by applying this
            new theoretical framework in the empirical part of the
            paper. The latter consists of a two-stage gravity estimation
            and investigates sectoral effects of TBT liberalization on
            parties to the agreement as well as excluded industrial and
            developing countries. It finds that MRAs have a strong
            positive influence on both export probabilities and trade
            volumes for partner countries. Regarding harmonization,
            results seem to suggest that the impact on parties to the
            agreement is negligible, however that on excluded OECD
            countries is large and positive. Third party developing
            countries do not seem to benefit from the market integration
            effect brought about by harmonization in other regions.
            Overall, effects on the probability that a new firm will
            export are much more pronounced than effects on the trade
            volumes of incumbent exporters.
Trade effects of regional standards
            liberalization : a heterogeneous firms approach
WPS4124

# **TRADE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL STANDARDS LIBERALIZATION** A HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS APPROACH

## **_Silja Baller* World Bank_**

### **Abstract**

This study investigates trade effects of the regional liberalization of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) in the form of harmonization and mutual recognition agreements (MRAs) for testing procedures. The theoretical part of the paper is framed in terms of a heterogeneous firms approach. This paper adds to the existing literature by formalizing the effects of MRAs and harmonization initiatives on bilateral trade flows and by applying this new theoretical framework in the empirical part of the paper. The latter consists of a two-stage gravity estimation and investigates sectoral effects of regional TBT liberalization on parties to the agreement as well as excluded industrialized and developing countries. It finds that MRAs have a strong positive influence on both export probabilities and trade volumes for partner countries. Regarding harmonization, results seem to suggest that the impact on parties to the agreement is negligible, however that on excluded OECD countries is large and positive. Third party developing countries do not seem to benefit from the market integration effect brought about by harmonization in other regions. Overall, effects on the probability that a new firm will export are much more pronounced than effects on the trade volumes of incumbent exporters.

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4124, February 2007 _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

### **Acknowledgements**

The author has benefited from the guidance of and helpful discussions with Richard Baldwin and Mona Haddad as well as valuable comments from Paul Brenton, John Cuddy, Barbara Fliess, Sudarshan Gooptu, Marion Jansen, Patrick Low, Marc Melitz, Roberta Piermartini, Benjamin Shepherd and John Wilson.

* Correspondence: <u>sballer@worldbank.org, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and</u> Economic Management Sector
A Ricardian analysis of the impact
            of climate change on Latin American farms
This study estimates the vulnerability
            of Latin American agriculture to climate change using a
            Ricardian analysis of both land values and net revenues.
            Examining a sample of over 2,500 farms in seven countries,
            the results indicate both land value and net revenue are
            sensitive to climate. Both small farms and large farms have
            a hill-shaped relationship with temperature. Estimating
            separate regressions for dryland and irrigated farms reveals
            that dryland farms are more sensitive to temperature but
            irrigated farms are more sensitive to precipitation.
            Examining the effects from future climate change scenarios
            reveals that severe scenarios could reduce farm earnings by
            as much as 62 percent by 2100, whereas more moderate
            scenarios could reduce earnings by about 15 percent. Small
            and large farms are equally sensitive to global warming.
            Land value and net revenue analyses produce quite similar results.
More time is better : an evaluation
            of the full time school program in Uruguay
This paper estimates the impact of the
            full-time school program in Uruguay on standardized test
            scores of 6th grade students. The program lengthened the
            school day from a half day to a full day, and provided
            additional inputs to schools to make this possible, such as
            additional teachers and construction of classrooms. The
            program was not randomly placed, but targeted poor urban
            schools. Using propensity score matching, the authors
            construct a comparable group of schools, and show that
            students in very disadvantaged schools improved in their
            test scores by 0.07 of a standard deviation per year of
            participation in the full-time program in mathematics, and
            0.04 in language. While the program is expensive, it may, if
            well targeted, help address inequalities in education in
            Uruguay, at an increase in cost per student not larger than
            the current deficit in spending between Uruguay and the rest
            of the region.
Dollarization and exchange rate fluctuations
Although the worldwide growth in
            dollarization of bank deposits has recently slowed, it has
            already reached very high levels in dozens of countries.
            Building on earlier findings that allowed the main
            cross-country variations in the share of dollars to be
            explained in terms of national policies and institutions,
            this paper turns to analysis of short-run variations,
            particularly the response of dollarization to exchange rate
            changes, which is shown to be too small to warrant
            "fear of floating" by dollarized economies. But
            high dollarization is shown to increase the risk of
            depreciation and even suspension, as indicated by interest
            rate spreads. While specific policy is needed to deal with
            the risks associated with dollarization, the underlying
            causes of unwanted dollarization should also be tackled.
School drop-out and push-out factors
            in Brazil : the role of early parenthood, child labor, and poverty
This paper aims to identify the major
            drop-out and push-out factors that lead to school
            abandonment in an urban surrounding-the shantytowns of
            Fortaleza, Northeast Brazil. The authors use an extensive
            survey addressing risk factors faced by the population in
            these neighborhoods, which cover both in-school and
            out-of-school youth of both genders. They focus on the role
            of early parenthood, child labor, and poverty in pushing
            teenagers out of school. The potential endogeneity of some
            of the determinants is dealt with in the empirical analysis.
            The authors take advantage of the rich set of variables
            available and apply an instrumental variables approach.
            Early parenthood is instrumented with the age declared by
            the youngsters as the ideal age to start having sexual
            relationships. Work is instrumented using the declared
            reservation wage (minimum salary acceptable to work).
            Results indicate that early parenthood has a strong impact
            of driving teenagers out of school. Extreme poverty is
            another factor lowering school attendance, as children who
            have suffered hunger at some point in their lives are less
            likely to attend school. In this particular urban context,
            working does not necessarily have a detrimental effect on
            school attendance, which could be linked to the fact that
            dropping out of school leads most often to inactivity and
            not to work.
Identifying supply-side constraints
            to export performance in Ecuador : an exercise with
            Investment Climate Survey data
The authors apply a Heckman selection
            model to the 2003 Investment Climate Survey (ICS) to
            investigate supply-side constraints to export performance at
            the firm level in Ecuador. To correct for the non-random
            truncation problems, they use the Heckman selection model to
            estimate the probability of exporting (export propensity)
            and the share of total sales that are exported (export
            intensity) by Ecuadorian firms. They develop a baseline
            model with 12 independent variables divided into three
            categories-idiosyncratic characteristics, technology, and
            business environment. The authors develop three other models
            with the addition of variables related to trade integration,
            business environment, and infrastructure. Results
            corroborate with the hypothesis implicit in the Heckman
            model, which considers both decisions made by a firm-whether
            to export, and how much of its sales to export-to be
            interdependent. In the Ecuadorian case, they find three
            important results for the firm's export performance:
            technology matters; infrastructure does not; and trade
            orientation is significant, with specialized firms tending
            to have smaller export intensity when their main trade
            partners are countries of the Andean Community, and the
            opposite happening if the United States is their main trade
            partner. The authors find a robust and stable relationship
            for export propensity and intensity with size, import of
            inputs, labor regulations, in-house research and
            development, quality certification, web-use, and foreign
            ownership. Also, capacity utilization and trade with the
            United States positively affect export intensity, while
            trade within the Andean Community has the opposite effect in
            the outcome variable. But they find no significant
            relationship for the infrastructure variables.
Identifying supply-side constraints
            to export performance in Ecuador : an exercise with
            Investment Climate Survey data
WPS4179

**Identifying Supply-Side Constraints to Export Performance in Ecuador: An Exercise with Investment Climate Survey Data**

Paulo Correa (ECSPF) Mariam Dayoub (LCSPF) Manuela Francisco (AFTP4)

## **_Abstract_**

_We apply a Heckman selection model to the 2003-Investment Climate Survey (ICS) to investigate supply-side constraints to export performance at the firm level in Ecuador. To correct for the non-random truncation problem, we use the Heckman selection model to estimate the probability of exporting (export propensity) and the share of total sales that are exported (export intensity) by Ecuadorian firms. A baseline model with 12 independent variables divided into three categories – idiosyncratic characteristics, technology, and business environment – is developed. Three other models are developed with the addition of variables related to trade integration, business environment, and infrastructure. Results corroborate with the hypothesis implicit in the Heckman model, which considers both decisions made by a firm – whether to export, and how much of its sales to export – to be interdependent. In the Ecuadorian case, three important results for the firm’s export performance are found: technology matters; infrastructure does not; and trade orientation is significant, with specialized firms tending to have smaller export intensity when having the countries of the Andean Community as their main trade partners, the opposite happening if the U.S. is their main trade partner. We find a robust and stable relationship for export propensity and intensity with size, import of inputs, labor regulations, in-house R&D, quality certification, web-use, and foreign ownership. Also, capacity utilization and trade with the U.S. positively affect export intensity, while trade within the Andean Community has the opposite effect in our outcome variable. No significant relationship was found for the infrastructure variables._

**Key Words** : Ecuador, exports, innovation, foreign networks, business environment, firm level.

# World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4179, March 2007

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._ 1