# **Table 6**

# **Determinants of growth amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Sensitivity Analysis II Changes in the set of explanatory variables**

_Dependent variable: Change in the predicted 2020 growth rate (June 2020 vs. October 2019) Effective sample of 110 countries across the world_

# **_Instrumental Variables  1/_**

|||**Financial O**|**enness inde**|**x**|**201 **|**Human Ca**|**ital Index**||**Sen**|**itivitto Tr**|**de Variable**|**s**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Variables|**[1]**|<br>**[2]**|<br>**[3]**|**[4]**|<br>**[5]**|<br>**[6]**|<br>**[7]**|**[8]**|<br>**[9]**|**y **<br>**[10]**|<br>**[11]**|**[12]**|
|_International Trade_|||||||||||||
|Trade Openness<br>_(% GDP)_|-0.0675**<br>(00327)|..|..|-0.0807*<br>(00432)|-0.0728<br>(00509)|..|..|-0.0454<br>(00286)|..|..|..|..|
|<br>Natural resource exports<br>_(% GDP)_|.<br>..|-0.171<br>(0.157)|..|.<br>..|.<br>..|-0.143<br>(0.111)|..|.<br>..|..|..|..|..|
|<br>Manfactrin imorts||-0242||||-0153|||||||
|uug p<br>|..|.<br>|..|..|..|.<br>|..|..|..|..|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_<br>Exports to Advanced|..|(0.182)<br>..|-0.181*|..|..|(0.120)<br>..|-0.137**|..|..|..|..|..|
|<br>Countries_(% GDP)_|||(0.0932)||||(0.0634)||||||
|Exports to Developing Countries|..|..|-0.0150|..|..|..|-0.165|..|..|..|..|..|
|Outside the region_(% GDP)_<br>|||(0.259)<br>||||(0.166)<br>||||||
|Intra-regional exports<br>_(% GDP)_|..|..|-0.239<br>(0.201)|..|..|..|-0.000256<br>(0.0921)|..|..|..|..|..|
|Natural resource trade|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|-0.267*|..|-0.271**|..|
|<br>_(% GDP, exports and imports)_|||||||||(0.138)||(0.135)||
|Manufacturing trade|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|-0.0461|..|-0.0545|..|
|_(% GDP, exports and imports)_<br>|||||||||(0.0460)||(0.0482)||
|Trade to Advanced Countries|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|-0.0702*|..|-0.0925*|
|_(% GDP, exports and imports)_||||||||||(0.0380)||(0.0483)|
|Trade to Developing Countries<br>|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|-0.0737<br>|..|-0.0960<br>|
|Outside the region_(% GDP)_<br>Intra-regional Trade|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|(0.120)<br>-0.0800|..|(0.178)<br>-0.113|
|<br>_(% GDP, exports and imports)_||||||||||(0.0723)||(0.0997)|
|_International Finance_|||||||||||||
|Gross Capital Inflows<br>..|..|..|..|..|-0.158|-0.163|-0.183*|-0.191*|-0.0512|-0.138|..|..|
|_(% GDP)_|||||(0.173)|(0.126)|(0.104)|(0.114)|(0.134)|(0.0980)|||
|Financial Openness Index|-0.410|0.0331|-0.0658|-0.194|..|..|..|..|..|..|-0.186|-0.154|
|_(Chinn-Ito index)_|(0.451)|(0.778)|(0.640)|(0.558)<br>|||||||(0.564)|(0.589)|
|Remittances<br>_(% GDP received)_|0.153<br>(00939)|0.460<br>(0357)|0.198<br>(0145)|0.230*<br>(0133)|0.237<br>(0170)|0.358<br>(0243)|0.133<br>(00860)|0.185*<br>(0102)|0.409*<br>(0223)|0.240*<br>(0145)|0.365<br>(0222)|0.284<br>(0200)|
|_,_<br>International Tourism|.<br>0.0180|.<br>-0.0543|.<br>-0.0330|.<br>0.0217|.<br>-0.00229|.<br>-0.0335|.<br>-0.00291|.<br>0.0299|.<br>-0.0545|.<br>-0.00455|.<br>-0.0712|.<br>-0.0218|
|Revenues_(% GDP)_|(0.0464)|(0.0940)|(0.0682)|(0.0521)|(0.0725)|(0.0697)|(0.0482)|(0.0473)|(0.0737)|(0.0528)|(0.0758)|(0.0718)|
|_Health and Human Capital_|||||||||||||
|Human Capital|19.79|6.822|8.627|11.97|..|..|..|..|7.166|12.12|6.090|12.74|
|<br>2020 Index_(0-1)_<br>|(13.75)|(16.00)|(12.32)|(12.80)|||||(11.87)|(10.64)|(11.62)|(15.10)|
|Human Capital<br>2017 Index_(0-1)_|..|..|..|..|11.82<br>(15.29)|15.91<br>(13.80)|12.25<br>(8.510)|12.56<br>(9.935)|..|..|..|..|
|_Macroeconomic Space_|||||||||||||
|Primary Balance|-0.00688|0.155|-0.0299|0.0603|0.331|0.339|0.279**|0.262*|0.392|0.228|0.324|0.00518|
|<br>_(% GDP)_|(0.184)|(0.387)|(0.253)|(0.207)|(0.243)|(0.269)|(0.135)|(0.149)|(0.281)|(0.143)|(0.265)|(0.237)|
|General Govt Gross|0.0276|0.0104|0.0225|0.0275|0.0160|-0.0114|-0.000146|-0.00153|-0.00569|-0.00222|0.0128|0.0263|
|Debt_(% GDP)_<br>|(0.0215)|(0.0407)|(0.0262)|(0.0243)|(0.0374)<br>|(0.0318)|(0.0226)|(0.0250)|(0.0329)|(0.0256)|(0.0303)|(0.0266)|
|PPG External Debt<br> _(% GDP)_|..|..|..|..|0.0116<br>(0.0186)|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|
|<br>PPG Ext.Dbt. Official|0.115**|0.0998|0.112*|0.113**|..|0.137**|0.155***|0.151***|0.0930|0.130***|0.0784|0.115*|
|Creditors_(% GDP)_|(0.0507)|(0.0809)|(0.0615)|(0.0570)||(0.0618)|(0.0470)|(0.0521)|(0.0568)|(0.0475)|(0.0554)|(0.0611)|
|PPG Ext.Dbt. Private|-0.0250|-0.0130|-0.0114|-0.0160|..|-0.0255|-0.0188|-0.0217|-0.0202|-0.0168|-0.0216|-0.0149|
|Creditors_(% GDP)_<br>|(0.0164)<br>|(0.0232)<br>|(0.0184)<br>|(0.0172)<br>||(0.0180)<br>|(0.0136)<br>|(0.0154)<br>|(0.0178)<br>|(0.0152)<br>|(0.0172)<br>|(0.0185)<br>|
|Inflation Rate|-0.0170*|-0.0154|-0.00833|-0.0111|0.184|0.144|0.124|0.129|0.137|0.126|-0.0158|-0.0131|
|_(% end of period)_<br>C A|(0.00973)<br>0209***|(0.0148)<br>0238*|(0.0138)<br>0280***|(0.0113)<br>0192**|(0.145)<br>0116|(0.114)<br>0114|(0.0779)<br>0131|(0.0861)<br>00944|(0.111)<br>0178|(0.0875)<br>0130*|(0.0108)<br>0229**|(0.0125)<br>0225***|
|urrent ccount<br>Balance_(% GDP)_|.<br>(0.0705)|.<br>(0.123)|.<br>(0.0934)|.<br>(0.0809)|.<br>(0.139)|.<br>(0.112)|.<br>(0.0827)|.<br>(0.0919)|.<br>(0.121)|.<br>(0.0772)|.<br>(0.0933)|.<br>(0.0858)|
|_Policy Response_<br>|||||||||||||
|Government Response (GR)<br>_(Oxford tracker)_|-0.375**<br>(0185)|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|..|
|<br>Stringency Index<br>_(Oxford tracker)_|.<br>..|-0.528<br>(0.334)|-0.436<br>(0.283)|-0.393*<br>(0.222)|-0.587<br>(0.367)|-0.420*<br>(0.243)|-0.326**<br>(0.158)|-0.370**<br>(0.185)|-0.424*<br>(0.223)|-0.355*<br>(0.194)|-0.397*<br>(0.235)|-0.426<br>(0.279)|
|_Regional Dummies_<br>Dummy: Sub-Saharan|2.833|-0.259|0.987|1.979|0.0226|2.492|3.314*|2.975|1.653|3.136|0.948|2.103|
|<br> Africa (SSA)|(1.836)|(3.374)|(2.766)|(2.180)|(3.280)|(2.350)|(1.759)|(1.904)|(2.611)|(1.990)|(2.497)|(2.624)|
|Observations<br>R-squared|84|76|84|84|82|73|82|82|75|85|7|6<br>84|

1/ We control the likely endogeneity of the policy response with 2019 levels of real GDP per capita, government tax revenues (% GDP), voice and accountability, and political stability Standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 22