main effect,” _Stat Modeling Blog_ .

- Gelman, A., J. B. Carlin, H. S. Stern, and D. B. Rubin (1995): _Bayesian data analysis_ , Chapman and Hall/CRC.

- Girma, S., Y. Gong, H. Görg, and Z. Yu (2009): “Can Production Subsidies Explain China’s Export Performance? Evidence from Firm-level Data,” _Scandinavian Journal of Economics_ , 111, 863–891.

- Groh, M., N. Krishnan, D. McKenzie, and T. Vishwanath (2016): “The Impact of Soft Skill Training on Female Youth Employment: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Jordan,” _IZA Journal of Labor and Development_ , 5.

- Hastie, T., R. Tibshirani, J. H. Friedman, and J. H. Friedman (2009): _The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction_ , vol. 2, Springer.

- Higuchi, Y., V. H. Nam, and T. Sonobe (2017): “Management practices, product upgrading, and enterprise survival: Evidence from randomized experiments and repeated surveys in Vietnam,” _GRIPS Working Paper_ .

- Hirschleifer, S., D. McKenzie, R. Almeida, and C. Ridao-Cano (2016): “The Impact of Vocational Training for the Unemployed: Experimental Evidence from Turkey,” _Economic Journal_ , 126, 2115–2146.

- Hussam, R., N. Rigol, and B. Roth (2022): “Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field,” _American Economic Review_ , 112, 861–98.

- Iacovone, L., W. Maloney, and D. McKenzie (2022): “Improving Management with Individual and Group-Based Consulting: Results from a Randomized Experiment in Colombia,” _Review of Economic Studies_ , 89, 346–71.

- Imbens, G. and D. Rubin (2015): _Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences: An Introduction_ , Cambridge University Press.

- Kim, Y. R., D. Shimamoto, P. Matous, and Y. Todo (2018): “Are seminars for export promotion effective? Evidence from a randomized trial,” _The World Economy_ , 41, 2954–2982.

- Lemoine, N. P. (2019): “Moving beyond noninformative priors: why and how to choose weakly informative priors in Bayesian analyses,” _Oikos_ , 128, 912–928.

- Londoño, A. (2017): “Low Productivity: the Elephant in the Room in Colombia’s Minimum Wage Debate,” _Panam Post_ .

- Manski, C. (2004): “Measuring expectations,” _Econometrica_ , 72, 1329–1376.

- McKenzie, D. (2018): “Can business owners form accurate counterfactuals? Eliciting treatment and control beliefs about their outcomes in the alternative treatment status,” _Journal of Business & Economic Statistics_ , 36, 714–722.

- McKenzie, D. and C. Woodruff (2017): “Business Practices in Small Firms in Developing Countries,” _Management Science_ , 63, 2967–2981.

- Meager, R. (2019): “Understanding the Average Impact of Microcredit Expansions: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Seven Randomized Experiments,” _American Economic Journal: Applied Economics_ , 11, 57–91.

- Otis, N. (2022): “Policy Choice and the Wisdom of Crowds,” _Working Paper_ .

- Thorlund, K., L. Thabane, and E. J. Mills (2013): “Modelling heterogeneity variances in multiple treatment comparison meta-analysis–Are informative priors the better solution?” _BMC medical research methodology_ , 13, 1–14.

- Vivalt, E. (2020): “How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?” _Journal of the European Economics Association_ , 18, 3045–3089.

32