# 1. Introduction

Afghanistan is at a critical juncture, with escalating food insecurity demanding attention as the country faces multiple crises threatening livelihoods and development. According to recent reports, hunger levels continue to rise, and progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has stalled. In 2022, an estimated 12.6 million people—30.6 percent of the population—experienced severe food insecurity, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Of these, 2.9 million were at emergency levels (classified as Phase 4 or above by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC), on the brink of starvation due to economic crises and droughts, as highlighted in the latest IPC analysis (March-April 2024). The World Bank’s World Food Security Outlook (Andrée 2022; 2023c) projects that Afghanistan will not achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2 (zero hunger), with severe food insecurity persisting beyond 2030.

The choice between investing in resilience or responding with humanitarian aid represents a dilemma in the development and humanitarian nexus. Investing in resilience aims to build long-term sustainability and reduce vulnerability, while aid provides immediate relief in crisis times. Striking the right balance is essential, as focusing solely on aid can perpetuate dependency, while underinvesting in resilience leaves communities exposed to future shocks. Important in this tradeoff are investment opportunities, the magnitude of preventable agricultural losses, and the role of locally produced food for food and nutrition security.

Global costs associated with natural disasters and climate extremes are rising. Newman and Noy (2023) quantify the global costs of extreme weather events attributable to climate change, highlighting economic burdens, particularly human loss of life. Addressing climate shocks can be an essential part of resilience strategies, as the agriculture sector offers opportunities for proactive adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce vulnerability (Diogo et al., 2017). Challinor et al. (2014) conducted a meta-analysis of 1,700 simulations to evaluate yield impacts of climate change and adaptation globally. Across different climate scenarios and adaptation strategies, crop-level adaptations increased simulated yields by an average of 7%–15%, a figure that aligns with the prevalence of severe food insecurity worldwide.

The potential for agricultural adaptation measures to strengthen food security depends on country contexts. Evidence suggests that action is particularly important in low-income settings. Vermeulen et al. (2012) highlight the complex, geographical nature of climate impacts on food systems and note that they particularly affect low-income producers and consumers. Andrée et al. (2019) assess the relationship between economic development and environmental burdens in 95 countries and show that early-stage development, associated with the greatest reduction in extreme poverty and the fastest improvements in living standards, is also linked to the highest pressure on natural resources. Eroding these resources early on can create long-term challenges to food security if local livelihoods depend on them for consumption. These contextual impacts of climate shocks call for in-depth, country-specific analysis of the climate-food security relationship.

Afghanistan faces challenges in achieving food security due to recurring climate shocks and socioeconomic instability. Severe climatic events such as droughts and floods have impacted agricultural productivity and food availability. While existing studies and humanitarian reports from the World Bank and IPC document these challenges, questions remain about whether climate-induced food 2