# **A. Introduction**

Conflict-induced forced displacement—defined as situations where people are forced to flee their homes due to conflict, generalized violence and human rights violations—is gaining prominence as a topic of discussion, both internationally and within the World Bank.<sup>2</sup> This is partly due to the massive refugee flows generated by the Syrian conflict, but also motivated by a growing consensus that forced displacement poses a substantial threat to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially for countries of origin and host countries of refugees and IDPs. Within the Bank, the adoption of the twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and enhancing shared prosperity requires increased attention to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities, among whom the displaced rank highly. Support for a development approach to displacement, which promotes durable solutions based on economic opportunity and selfreliance is gaining ground.

Establishing an accurate picture of the scale and dynamics of conflict-induced forced displacement is extremely challenging. Data are collected from a multiplicity of sources, employing different definitions and methodologies, leading to variations in the comparability, quality and reliability of reported data within and between countries. Numbers can change rapidly due to ongoing conflicts and monitoring can be challenging due to the fluidity of population movements and lack of access to conflict-affected areas. In a number of contexts, statistics may misrepresent the true scale of displacement due to practical difficulties associated with data collection, political incentives to manipulate figures or methodological issues. Reported data may be incomplete due to limited coverage of data collection activities, or because collected data are not fully reflected in aggregated statistics due to poor coordination of data compilation activities. Significantly, headline figures on forced displacement do not capture affected host communities and returnees who may still face specific vulnerabilities associated with their displacement.

Despite these challenges, large amounts of data on forcibly displaced populations are collected and disseminated each year and used to inform policy and programming. Substantial amounts of data are gathered and published by national governments, international organizations, and national and international NGOs. Lacking more credible statistics, these flawed and incomplete data are often used widely to inform policy making and programming by humanitarian and development actors. While it may not be possible to obtain comprehensive and reliable data in the short-term, it is important to understand the limitations of the figures that are currently available and widely quoted.

Current data collection efforts focus on estimating the numbers of forcibly displaced and consequently there are significant gaps in the data required for longer-term development planning. There is increasing interest in identifying and addressing the gaps and deficiencies in the data on forced displacement in order to: (a) underpin a policy dialogue with affected countries on the longer-term development impacts (both positive and negative) of conflict-induced forced displacement on host countries, host communities and displaced populations, and the advantages and disadvantages of various policy options; and (b) design evidencebased policy responses and development assistance strategies to mitigate negative impacts and support positive results. An expanded evidence base would support a more informed policy dialogue with country counterparts, and would also provide more practical guidelines for development interventions.

Several initiatives are already underway to improve statistics on forced displacement, including work being carried out by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)<sup>3</sup> with support of the International Organization for Migration (IOM),<sup>4</sup> the Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS),<sup>5</sup> the Inter-Agency Standing

> 2 Forced displacement due to natural or human-made disasters and due to development projects are beyond the scope of this paper. Unless otherwise indicated, all references to forced displacement in this paper refer to conflict-induced forced displacement.

> 3 IDMC, part of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), is the leading provider of information and analysis on internal displacement worldwide. See http://www.internal-displacement.org/.

> 4 IOM, established in 1951, is the leading inter-governmental organization in the field of migration, with 162 member states and nine states holding observer status.

> 5 JIPS is an inter-agency initiate overseen by UNHCR, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), OCHA, Danish Refugee Council, IDMC and the UN Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of IDPs that supports international and national actors in collecting data on displacement situations through collaborative data-collection exercises. JIPS