## **5.6 Intergenerational mobility in educational attainment**

As discussed in section 3, estimates of intergenerational elasticity and the correlation coefficient do not allow us to identify the level of children’s educational attainment that is more affected by parental education. To investigate this, we estimate an order probit model for children’s highest level of education in each country for each five-year birth cohort. The tables in Appendix C present the probability of a child achieving primary educational attainment or above, conditional on her mother or father’s education across each five-year birth cohort in each country. In all countries, the omitted category of mother’s and father’s education is parents with no schooling.

Despite family background, we document a convergence toward zero in the probability of children attaining no education in all countries. The results show that downward mobility, that is, attaining no schooling if parents have at least primary education, is negative across cohorts, suggesting an upward mobility from no schooling to an upper level of educational attainment. Concerning primary education, we find a narrowing, but not closing gap in the probability of childrens attaining primary education across all family educational backgrounds. For instance, in the Comoros, the probability of attaining a primary education when a mother has primary education as well declines from 13 percent in the oldest cohort to 2.5 percent in the youngest cohort. We observe a similar trend in primary education in all the countries except Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda. This result suggests a narrowing, but not closing gap in primary education across children with a different parental educational background. However, in Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda, the children of parents who have primary education experienced upward mobility and had a greater chance of obtaining a secondary education or above. Furthermore, children in more well educated households (parents who have secondary education or above) have a greater chance of obtaining a higher education than the children of parents who have no education or who have completed only primary education. Thus, children with poor parental education still have a lower prospect of attaining higher education. The overall results suggest that all the counties experienced upward intergenerational educational mobility over the last 50 years. However, the observed mobility in almost all the countries is concentrated in the lower tail of the education distribution, primary education. It is plausible that this is the result of the expansion in primary education in the region after independence in the 1960s. In line with our results in previous sections, we document evidence that maternal education is more important in influencing children’s education relative to schooling of fathers in all the countries but the Comoros.

# **6 Conclusion**

Drawing on nationally representative survey data, we study the intergenerational im(mobility) of educational attainment in the Comoros, Ghana, Guinea, Madagascar, Malawi, Nigeria, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda over 50 years, with a particular focus on gender differences. The overall results indicate that there has been a significant improvement in intergenerational educational mobility during the last five decades, particularly after the 1960s. We document a country difference: Nigeria, Guinea, Ghana, and Uganda experienced the highest intergenerational mobility, and the Comoros and Madagascar the lowest. Nevertheless, the educational attainment of parents remains a strong determinant of children’s schooling outcomes. We also find considerable gender differences in the persistence of education across generations, which are masked in the country estimations; the educational attainment of daughters is more closely correlated with parental years of schooling relative to educational attainment of sons. On paternal or maternal effects, the education of mothers is significantly more important than the education of fathers in shaping the educational attainment of both daughters and sons, though the effect is much stronger among daughters. Furthermore, we document more mobility in the lower tail of education distribution. In the countries, children from all family backgrounds exhibit a greater chance of attaining primary schooling, while children from more well educated family backgrounds have a greater chance of obtaining more schooling beyond primary education.

From a policy perspective, our results suggest a need for targeted redistribution policies that improve intergenerational mobility in the region. Moreover, putting in place an inclusive environment for women (mothers) who are less well off in human capital accumulation might play a decisive role in promoting social mobility in the long run. While primary education enrollment in our sample has generally increased over the five decades, access to secondary schooling is far from universal. Putting in place policies that promote access to secondary education is therefore a priority among the educational systems in the countries under investigation. Evidence from developed countries suggests that making secondary education mandatory better promotes education outcomes among the next generation. However, the policies in each country should be context specific.

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