crop model also takes into account the amount of evapotranspiration normally recorded at that location. The final weighted average of rainfall losses reflects the proportion of normal yield that is estimated to have been lost during that season due to poor rainfall in that location. It is important to note that this is a calculation, though, not an estimate from a regression.

The LEAP loss estimates are compiled for each year since 1996. Rainfall losses are produced for both the main _Meher_ season as well as the secondary _Belg_ season in the parts of the country that experience this second season. Planting and harvesting dates for each season vary across crop and location, but in general the _Meher_ season runs from May to November and the _Belg_ season from January to May. For a detailed description of the LEAP system, see Conway and Schipper (2011), and Balzer and Hess (2010). Analysis in Hill and Tsehaye (2014) also show that the rainfall-based yield loss estimates from LEAP are highly predictive of yields measured in the CSA’s yield estimates using crop cutting and harvesting experiments.

_Roads:_ We use Schmidt and Kedir’s (2009) estimates of time to travel to a town of 50,000 people in 1994 and in 2007 to estimate an average annual reduction in travel time. The distance at each square kilometer in the district is averaged to provide a district level average estimate.

_Agricultural production practices:_ We use _zone_ level measures of increases in the proportion of farmers that have reported applying fertilizer from 1997 to 2011. These measures are compiled using the annual Agricultural Sample Survey conducted by CSA.

_PSNP_ **:** The PSNP covers about 300 _woredas_ in seven regions (Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, SNNP, Afar, Somali, and Harari) and Dire Dawa. The beneficiary _woredas_ and the type of transfers they receive have been quite stable since the program was started in 2005.<sup>14</sup> We reviewed the Annual Plans of the PSNP in recent years to identify _woredas_ that are recipients of transfer as well as the type of transfers they received. The transfer that each _woreda_ receives is either cash only or a combination of cash and food. Based on this review, _woredas_ were classified into three groups: those that are not in the PSNP, those that receive only cash and those that receive both cash and food under the PSNP. We use these categories in the analysis.

# **4.2. Weather shocks across time and space**

In this section we provide a brief description of the extent of rainfall losses in Ethiopia and how these losses vary temporally and spatially. We also describe the trend in grain prices across regions.

Figure 1 presents the mean, median and standard deviation of rainfall losses during the main _Meher_ season in 8 regions over 17 years from 1996 to 2012. There is a substantial regional heterogeneity in the amount rainfall lost. For instance, Afar and Somali regions experience very high rainfall losses on average, and they respectively lose about 60 and 42 percent of their _Meher_ rainfall during this period. On the other hand, Benishangul-Gumuz, SNNP, and Gambela regions experience low levels of rainfall loss. Despite this variation in the amount of rainfall lost on

> 14 The number of beneficiaries _woredas_ has changed slightly over time: there were 282, 290, 301, 319, and 319 _woredas_ in 2007/8, 2008/9, 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2013/14, respectively (Source:  PSNP Annual Plan for the corresponding year).

11