rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Area estimates indicate although climate change is likely to increase inundation depth in about half of the country, the inundation depth increases are less than 15 cm for most areas. Increases in inundation depths larger than 15 cm are likely to occur in only 544 sq km or less than 0.5% of Bangladesh. (See Table 4.) Current spatial distribution of infrastructure provided the starting point for identifying infrastructure that are likely to be exposed to additional inundation risk due to climate change in 2050. The best available spatially-disaggregated maps and data for these assets have been acquired from various public sources including Bangladesh Railways, Bangladesh Water Development Board, Local Government Engineering Department, Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), Public Works Department, Roads and Highways Department, Water Resources Planning Organization and the World Bank. The stock of infrastructure in 2050 is projected by applying expected changes<sup>23</sup> in the Bangladesh economy uniformly across the country. The additional inundation exposure risk zones due to climate change are overlaid on the infrastructure map using GIS software to determine the assets exposed to additional inundation risk.

The infrastructure stock exposed in each inundation risk zone for drainage structures, e.g. culverts is a count of the number of assets located in that risk zone. For assets with a large spatial extent (e.g., roads, railways and embankments) the exposure estimate is measured by the spatial extent of the assets, in kilometers.

# <u>Roads</u>

All national and regional roads in Bangladesh were designed to be built above the highest flood level with a return period of 50 years, and feeder roads were designed above normal flood levels (Siddiqui and Hossain 2006). Still, these standards were not sufficient to prevent large losses in road infrastructure during recent major floods. For example, road damages accounted for 15% of the total damages or about 0.7% of GDP during the 1998 flood (Islam and Mechler 2007).

> 23 These include population and income growth and structural shifts in the economy away from agriculture and towards industry and services.

12
online Appendix 5).

We estimate Equation 1 using OLS. Because several of our outcomes are binary variables (e.g. graduating on time from high school, enrolling in university, etc.), one could be worried about potential biases introduced in the estimation of _β_ 1 due to the linear projection of test scores. As a robustness check, we run a Probit model for the binary outcomes, which does not impose linear parameters as the OLS model and limit the predicted values of the dependent variable to the interval [0,1]. Results are presented in the online Appendix 5.

As already stated, in this paper we aim, first, to study the predictive power of ENLACE test scores over future schooling and labor market outcomes, and second, to understand how much of ENLACE’s predictive power is related to the skills it captures as opposed to just family background. In this second endeavor we face a couple of empirical challenges, due to relevant variables being omitted from the analysis.

The main empirical challenge behind the identification of the relationship between test scores and future outcomes is related to the correlation between test scores, future outcomes, and family background. Test scores at Grade 6 have a positive relationship with both school dropouts in subsequent grades and family income. Now, suppose, in an extreme scenario, that school dropout is only explained by family income irrespective of 6th grade student achievement. In this case, since family background and test scores are highly correlated, we will then find that 6th grade test scores predict schooling trajectories —in line with our first research question—but this would not be due to the effects of skills, which is important for our second research question. We use the richness of our datasets to understand the contribution of family background to the simple correlation between test scores at Grade 6 and future outcomes. To clarify ideas, we modify Equation 1 as where _τf_ denotes a family fixed effect. Including _τf_ in the estimation and looking at changes in _β_<sup>ˆ</sup> 1 helps to understand the role of families in the simple correlation. This requires, of course, having individuals who share the same family and who ideally were born 13
# **V.1. Policy Recommendation I -** **_Need for Developing Supportive Regulatory and Supervisory Framework_**

Improved access to finance in many developing countries is constrained by inappropriate regulations, a lack of specialist supervisory capacity, and inadequate institutional models in general for financial inclusion and particularly for Islamic finance in OIC countries. Despite the significance of financial inclusion, it is observed that financial inclusion is still not a priority for financial regulators in most of OIC countries. For example, financial regulators in MENA have the second lowest degree of involvement in promoting financial inclusion, ahead only of high income countries where financial exclusion is at much lower levels (Figure 15). Almost half of all the countries covered by the CGAP and World Bank Financial Access 2010 report (48 percent) have a strategy document for the promotion of financial inclusion, with 90 percent of those introduced within the last 6 years. (Figure 16)

**Figure 15. Index of Regulator’s involvement in Financial Inclusion**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 0.92<br>0.71<br>0.65<br>0.39 0.39 0.43<br>0.34<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: CGAP and World Bank Financial Access 2010

**Figure 16. Countries with a Financial Inclusion Strategy Document**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 19<br>12<br>6<br>4 4<br>3<br>1 1 1 1 1<br>1997 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: CGAP and World Bank Financial Access 2010 42
In contexts where legal reform has been enacted, observational studies can measure the causal impact of introducing gender equal inheritance law. Women in Western countries progressively gained property and inheritance rights in the 19<sup>_th_</sup> and 20<sup>_th_</sup> century. Shammas (1994) argues that the Married Women Property Acts which were progressively adopted by US states from 1839 improved the legal situation of women. According to the historian, the percentage of wealth owned by women in the US increased more between 1860 and 1890 than in the two centuries preceding the acts. The quantiative evidence on the effectiveness of legal reform is at best mixed, though: the experience of India illustrates that policy makers’ attempt to increase women’s access to inheritance may backfire when restrictive gender norms prevail. Using a difference-in-differences approach Rosenblum (2015) shows that granting daughters the right to inherit ancestral lands in five Indian states increased the mortality of girls - the law seems to have incentivized parents to invest less in the health of their daughters. Bhalotra et al. (2020) confirm that the introduction of gender equal inheritance rights led to higher female infant mortality and an increase in the use of sonbiased fertility stopping rules in India. Roy (2015) argues that the reform at best remained ineffective - in reality, daughters’ access to ancestral land did not increase. By contrast, families compensated them with higher dowries or increased investment in their daughters’ education.

Gender discrimination in wealth transmission may persist even where the law is gender equal: Bessi`ere and Gollac (2023) show that gender discrimination in wealth transmission is commonplace in the US and Europe and has even increased in France over the past two decades. Inter-vivo gifts can be one way for families to favor sons. Moreover, land, real estate property or family businesses are most commonly passed on to (first-born) sons with daughters being paid out “their” share. According to Bessi`ere and Gollac (2023), notaries often deliberately undervalue these assets so they can stay in the family - leading to a discrimination of the children, most often daughters and younger sons, who are paid out. Social norms and the practices of notaries and lawyers can thus contribute to the persistence of gender discrimination in wealth transmission despite gender equal inheritance law.

# **2.2 Gender Issues in Tunisia**

The legal and social context of the MENA region and Tunisia in particular differs from the South Asian context, which has been researched much more extensively: there are no reports of gender-biased abortions or the use of son-based stopping rules in the region. Historically, 8
Probability_ of food stress 0.743 0.364 <!-- Start of picture text --> Probability of food crisis<br>0.547<br>Jawzjan Balkh Kunduz Takhar<br>Faryab Saman... _<br>4 Badghi } Panpher ¢ 0.000A<br>\egheres<br>Hirat Nangarhar<br>x or ne Z<br>Zabul ]<br>Nimroz Hilmand Kandahara—_<br>ss<br><!-- End of picture text -->
# Figure III

Procurement flows destination (entry) <!-- Start of picture text --> IDF<br>CAT<br>MAD CHA BANBOU PICPOCLORAUVCVLHANALSMIPLAR AQUBREPALNPC PAC RHA<br>VAL PVA AND LIM FRC<br>RIO CANNAVEXT ASTIBAMURCYM CYL GAL ARA COR<br>IDF<br>MAD<br>MIPLAR CAT<br>PAC<br>AQU PVA<br>CHA BOU HAN NPC VAL<br>POC CVL BREPAL RHA MUR CYL ARA AND<br>LIM PIC LORAUVALS EXT ASTIBACYM GAL<br>1 10 100 1 10 100<br>Market size (in awarded value, in billions of eur) Market size (in awarded value, in billions of eur)<br>Firms located in Catalonia Firms located in Ile de France<br>(a) (b)<br>10000<br>10000<br>1000<br>1000<br>100<br>100<br>Number of firms Number of firms<br>10<br>10<br>1 1<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Notes:** Figure III shows the number of firms from Ile de France (panel A) and from Catalonia (panel B) that sell to different regions as a function of total procurement expenditure at destination measured in ebillions.

We choose the Spanish region of Catalonia and the French region Ile de France to illustrate the empirical regularities we find in the overall sample. Although Catalonia and Ile de France are quite different in their geographical location within the country, their size and their institutional role in Spain and France, we observe the same pattern of firm participation in public procurement. Similar patterns emerge for the other regions in Spain and France.

**Fact 1.** _Firms’ participation in procurement increases in market size as measured by governments’ total expenditure on procurement but i) firms participate disproportionately more in their own country and ii) within their country, firms participate disproportionately more in their own region._

Figure III shows the number of firms from Catalonia (panel A) and from Ile de France (panel B) that sell to different destination markets as a function of the (procurement) market size of the destination region. Destination regions in the home country are plotted in blue, while foreign destination regions are plotted in red. The first clear pattern is that firms’ participation (number of firms in each market) increases with the market size of the destination measured as governments’ total expenditure in procurement. The second pattern is that, conditional on market size at destination, firms’ participation is higher within the home country. Comparing home destinations (blue) and foreign destinations (red) we see a clear participation gap. The third pattern that emerges is that, within the home country, the home region (Catalonia and Ile de France respectively) is an outlier with an exceptionally high entry of firms, well above the linear trend.

16
|**Specification**|**Options**|
|---|---|
||5. Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output<br>(REO)|
|Renewable Energy|1. Legal framework for renewable energy (LF)<br>2. Planning for renewable energy expansion (PE)<br>3. Incentives and regulatory support for renewable energy<br>(IR)|
|Policies|4. Attributes of financial and regulatory incentives (AI)<br>5. Network connection and use (NC)<br>6. Counterparty risk (CR)<br>7. Carbonpricingand monitoring (CP)|

Following the literature, we define the first stage estimate for the IV regressions as statistically significant when it has a p-value at or below 5% and an F-statistic above 10 (Stock & Watson, 2011).

Additionally, we impose a theoretical restriction that the estimated relationship between the instrumental and the endogenous variable in the first stage is positive (i.e., closeness to donors increases the likelihood of adopting a renewable energy policy). With the theoretical restriction above, the second-stage coefficients arguably represent the causal effect of the seven energy policy packages on the five energy mix outcomes.

While the exogeneity of the second-stage estimates cannot be established with certainty, we perform additional robustness tests to establish the validity of chosen instrumental variables. One established finding in the economics literature is that "getting similar results from alternative instruments enhances the credibility of instrumental variable estimates" (Murray, 2006) p.118.

The uniqueness of our empirical approach allows us to conduct a formal test for differences in the second-stage estimates resulting from different instrumental variables. We regress a vector of estimated second-stage coefficients for each of the five energy mix outcomes on the dummies for the instrumental variable used to obtain the second-stage estimate, the energy policy package, the type of index used, and the country and fixed-effects.

19
-5-

illuminating the major changes and their causes. To examine these trends, we cre4te what is--to our knowledge--the first comprehunsive time series on earmarking at all levels of government<sup>in Colombia. The second is an</sup> evaluation of the major examples of<sup>earmarking--what</sup> are their objectives and how well do they work in practice--with a view toward making recommendation3 for change. In making recommendations for reducing the scope of earmarking ir Colombia,<sup>we will be guided by several principles:</sup> (a) is there a substantial overlap<sup>between the beneficiaries and the</sup> tax/price payers for any given government<sup>service; (b) do the ta;L/price</sup> arrangements appear to be leading to appropriate levels<sup>or the service over</sup> time; and (c) are resources being<sup>utilized effectively for the purpose</sup> intended. The remainder of the paper<sup>is divided into four parts. Part II</sup> p:esents time series data on the size<sup>and structure of earmarking during</sup> the last two decades, which shed light<sup>on the factors behind the trends in</sup> earmarking. Prart III outlines some of the factors 'ehind<sup>the popularity of</sup> earmarking in Colombia and reviews<sup>the findings and recommendations</sup> of two major government commissions which have examined the subject--the Mission on Intergovernmental Finance of 1981 (or Bird-Wiesner Commission) and the Public Expenditures Commission of<sup>1986 (Comision del Gasto Publico). Part</sup> IV undertakes a critical review<sup>of the major examples which make up over</sup> 902 of total earmarking. Part V summarizes<sup>our major findings and makes</sup> some recommendations for changes.
**Policy, Research, and External Affairs**

International Trade WPS 580 ' pli ivr -- a product of the Intemational Trade Division, Intcmational Economics Department- is part nla ltLarur efl'ort in PRE' to analyze and predict important structural changes in world tradc as well as to id' mi i tiactors aff'ectirng developing countries' cxport camings. Copies arc available free from the World B ank. 1~ l 8 I I Strcet NWA', Washington DC 20433. **Please** contact Jean ;acobson, room S8-037, extension **3-,I1) pa!g1; es).** D)kvcloping countries have long had two main ohjeCtivrcs in tenns of comnmodity exports: to rcdL;ce instability in exporters' carnings and importers' prices through international (buffer stock) aurecments and to encourage more prrcesing of domestically produced commodi- **tic-** h1⁄4 devcloping countries.

Liltic attention seems to have been paid to po>sible cornniections between these objectives. If' processcd commnodities are traded in markeLs that **arC** gTCnerally more stable, for example, and il tlicsc **it' nis** experictce more favorable longer p'lm pricc trcrnids, might a natural resource-based i i/alion strateg not convcy' important **S . : .m:. ia** J **)** price hcnctits for commodiityd. ( sloping eountrics?

**w** i **fl** a K cmii ficant number ofcdeveloping arc Shifting tlhcir composition of ,:'2~> j!wiv. ard processed commodities - and if n j k .uts !or thCse itcnms are less unstable - i d is lot alter the priority' attached to i.i. COmmmodit,, price stabilization

Using the World Bank's commodityprocessing classification scheme, Yeats shows that a major structural shift in commodity trade occurred between 1965 and 1987. Almost all regional groups of developing countrics shifted from primary commodity exports to more processed commodities - except for foodstuffs -and this change was reflected to varying degrees in all major developed-country import markets.

But the developing countries actually rcsponsible for the further processing (such as the Asian NlCs) were often not major producers of the primary (unprocessed) commodity. T'his sugoests that internal constraints on commiiiodity processing may of'ten be more important than such external barriers as escalating tariffs.

Thc shift has gencrally' reduced instability in export carnings for agricultural materials, orcs, and metals - and to a lesser cxtent for foodstuffs - and has resulted in more favorable long-term price trends.

I!i'i' 17' \F rktig Pa per Series disserninates the Findings of work under way in the Bank's Po licy, Research, and External A X.(':p'x: **An** ih je.cti e ofthe serics is to get the se findings out quickly, **ev en** if prcsentations are less than fully polished. :!'terrTeti ns. and conclusions in these p;tpers do not necessarily represent official **Bank** policy.

i'. , **.. (** fi, Pk'E: **F11.t1 r:,;T** .S.TrLl.
# Cash Transfers after Ebola in Guinea: Lessons Learned on Human Capital

Damien de Walque<sup>1</sup> and Dimitris Mavridis<sup>2</sup> Keywords: Cash Transfers, Ebola, Education, Learning Assessment, Immunizations JEL Codes: I25, I15, O15 Acknowledgments: We are indebted to the outstanding quality of the coordination team of the Cellule Filets Sociaux (CFS) in Guinea, including Abdoulaye Wansan Bah, Adbul Mazid Diallo, and Ibrahima Kourouma. Our thanks are extended to the last Agency hosting the CFS, the ANIES (Agence Nationale pour l’Inclusion Economique et Sociale) and to the Institut National de la Statistique (INS) who collected the baseline survey. We are also extremely grateful to our World Bank colleagues Azedine Ouerghi, Philippe Auffret, Giuseppe Zampaglione, Fanta Toure, Claudia Zambra, Nono Ayivi-Guedehoussou, Astrid Sophie Uytterhaegen, Nene Oumou Dialo, Karim Paré, and Aissata Coulibaly, who led the implementation of the project and greatly facilitated its impact evaluation. All errors and omissions are the authors. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

> 1 Development Research Group, The World Bank. ddewalque@worldbank.org 2 France Stratégie, mavridis.dimitris@gmail.com
# **ABSTRACT**

This study applies the Ricardian technique to estimate the effect of climate change on the smallholder agriculture sector in Sri Lanka. The main contribution of the paper is the use of household-level data to analyze long-term climate impacts on farm profitability. This level of detail allows control for a host of factors such as human and physical capital available to farmers as well as adaptation mechanisms at the farm level. At the household level, about half the variation in net revenues is explained by non-climate variables. The household data have the advantage of providing more detailed controls in Ricardian analyses. The results suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on smallholder profitability. Reductions in precipitation during key agricultural months can be devastating for temperatures. At the aggregate level, a change in net revenues of between –23% and +22 percent can be expected depending on the climate change scenario. These effects will vary considerably across geographic areas from losses of 67% to gains that more than double current net revenues. The largest adverse impacts are expected to be in the dry zones of the North Central region and the dry zones of the South Eastern regions of Sri Lanka. On the other hand, the intermediate and wet zones are likely to benefit, mostly due to the predicted increase in rainfall.

10
<!-- Start of picture text --> Afghan refugees in Iran under UNHCR<br>3500000<br>3000000<br>2500000<br>2000000<br>1500000<br>1000000<br>500000<br>0<br>1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019<br>Figure 1 - Number of Afghan refugees in Iran under United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees<br>(UNHCR). Source: UNHCR database available at https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics-statisticsstatistics (accessed<br>21/06/2020).<br>GDP growth (%) in Iran GDP growth<br>non-oil GDP growth<br>16.0 14.2<br>11.0 8.7<br>7.9 7.0 6.2 7.3 7.8 6.6<br>5.5<br>4.8<br>6.0 3.2 3.5<br>2.5 2.3<br>0.8<br>1.0<br>-0.1<br>-4.0<br>-4.9<br>-6.1<br>-9.0<br>-8.5<br>US started war against Taliban.<br>The Taliban resurgence started. Period of this study<br>The Soviet Army intervened in Afghanistan<br>Internal confilict following Soviet exit<br>Taliban is founded Taliban established Islamic state.<br>2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Figure 1 - Number of Afghan refugees in Iran under United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Source: UNHCR database available at_ _<u>https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics-statisticsstatistics</u> (accessed 21/06/2020)._ _Figure 2- GDP growth rates in Iran. As a result of the conflicts with the international community, the longlasting period of Iran’s positive growth ended in 2011 when GDP growth dropped to -8.5% in 2012. It then overturned in the next years and peaked at +14.2% in 2016, following the approval of the nuclear deal. After the exit of Donald Trump’s administration from the deal in 2018, the growth rate again dropped to high negative rates._ 18