SSA has become more open to trade and the shares of exports and imports to GDP (28 percent and 31 percent in 2014) are very close to global averages. The two of the three landlocked East African countries deviate somewhat from the SSA average: Malawi that is the closest has export and import ratios to GDP of 34 percent and 39 percent respectively. Both Rwanda and Uganda have much lower export shares – 15 percent and 18 percent respectively -- although their import share is close to the SSA average of 30 percent. Trade with China and intra-regional trade drove the growth in trade in SSA; intraregional trade almost doubled between 1995 and 2013, and amounted to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2013. Still its share is much smaller than that of regional trade in South and East Asia – almost 85 percent lower (IMF 2016).<sup>45</sup> Africa’s participation in global trade and more specifically in GVCs has been less encouraging. As of 2014, Africa’s share in global exports was 2.4 percent and that of SSA was 1.7 percent with a preponderance of commodities and relatively small shares of manufactures and services.<sup>46</sup> In services trade alone, SSA’s share was 2.2 percent with 70 percent of the earnings accruing from travel and transport. SSA’s centrality to the global trade network, which is a measure of connectedness that factors in size of trade, trade partners, and the weight of the partners in global trade, is also lower than that of other regions (IMF 2016).

SSA’s integration in GVCs has been increasing since 1995 and it is now the third most integrated region in the world. Because of the weight of commodities in exports from SSA, forward integration accounts for 85 percent of the participation in GVCs- forward integration being a measure of the degree to which SSA’s exports are inputs into the exports of other countries. The balance of 15 percent, which is backward integration, measures SSA’s imports that serve as inputs for its own exports. Foster- McGregor et al (2015, pp.68-69) conclude their detailed study of African participation in GVCs with the observation that integration while significant and growing is of a forward nature, associated with low value-added primary production, where possibilities for learning and upgrading are likely to be more limited. Generally, countries that are engaged in processing and assembly as in East Asia, are likely to have a higher degree of backward integration. It remains the case that Africa as a whole trades relatively little compared with other regions, with trade in intermediate goods in particular being low relative to other regions. The implication of this is that the ratios of GVC participation may overstate the importance of GVCs for Africa.

Forward integration is the norm for Malawi, Uganda and Rwanda as they export mainly agricultural commodities and some minerals (Foster-McGregor et al 2015). Taking Africa as a whole, 75 percent of the integration is explained by South Africa

> 45  IMF (2016, pp. 7-8) “The Region’s integration in global trade—its centrality in the global trade network—paints a similar picture. This measure takes into account not only the size of exports for a given country but also the number of its trade partners, as well as the relative weight of these trade partners in global trade...By that measure, sub-Saharan Africa remains the least integrated region in the world, with an average centrality of only about half of that observed in other emerging and developing economies.”

> 46 In 2012, Africa accounted for 2.2 percent of the global trade in services and declining in recent years. (WEF 2015)

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