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**Table 1. Aggregate impact of potential FTAs on their member states by 2030 (deviations from the baseline in billion $ and percent)**

|||**S**|**tandard**|**simulation**|**s**|**Simulat**|**ions with**|**producti**|**vity kick**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||**_CPTPP_**|**_TPP12_**|**_RCEP_**|**_FTAAP_**|**_CPTPP_**|**_TPP12_**|**_RCEP_**|**_FTAAP_**|
|**GDP**|%|0.4|0.7|1.5|1.6|1.1|0.9|4.6|4.6|
||_bln$_|_74.3_|_261.1_|_653.5_|_1,151.9_|_183.6_|_373.6_|_2,074.8_|_3,226.9_|
||%|0.9|1.1|2.1|2.8|1.4|1.3|4.5|5.0|
|**Income**|_bln$_|_168.7_|_482.5_|_966.7_|_2,082.4_|_266.1_|_595.5_|_2,039.1_|_3,774.8_|
|**Et**|%|2.8|4.1|4.9|9.4|3.4|4.6|7.8|12.5|
|**xpors**|_bln$_|_127.5_|_322.8_|_561.1_|_1,459.5_|_155.5_|_354.2_|_903.1_|_1,945.2_|
|**I**|%|2.7|3.7|4.9|9.3|3.3|4.1|8.0|12.4|
|**mports**|_bln$_|_127.2_|_324.8_|_552.9_|_1,487.6_|_154.8_|_356.8_|_890.3_|_1,985.9_|

Source: Authors’ estimates (Note: GDP - Real GDP at market price, Income - Nominal GDP at market price, Exports - Nominal exports excl intl trade and transport, Imports - Nominal imports CIF).

The model simulations project positive aggregate macroeconomic impacts for all potential integration alternatives – CPTPP, TPP12, RCEP and FTAAP. According to Table 1, **FTAs with a wider**

**membership and larger scale are expected to produce higher aggregate economic gains in terms of increased GDP and trade flows.** Wider agreements enable a better access to a larger number of growing Asia-Pacific markets and therefore a better engagement in global value chains. In addition, the magnitude of FTA benefits depends on projected declines in trade barriers, as well as the level of trade protection prior to multilateral FTAs, the extent of trade flows not previously covered by other preferential trade agreements. If a significant part of members’ trade was already liberalized and subject to prior agreements, trade liberalization shocks from new FTA agreements will be lower.

The recently concluded **CPTPP (after US withdrawal) has the lowest number of member countries among other scenarios, though it is quite ambitious in terms of trade openness** . However, without the United States it will generate the lowest gains among potential integration alternatives. CPTPP is projected to increase the overall members’ GDP by 0.4% as compared to baseline scenario for 2030 (or by $74 billion in absolute terms). All CPTPP members will be able to improve their economic performance, with Vietnam, Malaysia, Peru, and Singapore reaping the highest benefits (see Tables 4-7). Their GDP expansion will be driven by significant tariff and NTMs reductions and improved market access to their main CPTPP trading partners. Japan (the greatest economy within the CPTPP) presents the highest GDP increase in absolute terms – by $31 billion. While Mexico and Chile will experience the lowest GDP growth due to low share of trade with CPTPP in Mexico and already liberalized trade with Chile.

In case the United States joins the TPP, it would generate additional $261 billion of overall GDP or a 0.7% GDP growth with respect to baseline conditions by 2030. Under TPP12 scenario, Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan, and Brunei would demonstrate the fastest growth among members, while Japan and the United States will be the main beneficiaries in absolute terms ($107 billion and $87 billion, respectively). With TPP12 markets being a destination for about one-third of total US exports, the United States would have improved access to these markets – e.g., the estimated trade weighted NTMs that the United States faces in TPP12 will decrease by 2 p.p. At the same time, Vietnam will enjoy the highest GDP and export growth of 3.6% and 20.7% respectively under TPP12 due to the biggest trade barriers reduction, both faced and imposed (e.g., trade weighted average tariffs faced by Vietnamese exporters in TPP12 markets would drop from 4.2% to 0.1%). Among all, Vietnamese exporters will