From a theoretical point of view, the long-term developmental effects of violent conflict are ambiguous. Standard neoclassical growth models predict high rates of growth in the post-conflict period as the economy converges to its steady state growth rate. In particular, the temporary destruction of capital can be overcome in the long-run by higher investments in affected areas.<sup>1</sup> Violent conflict may also be associated with long term positive developmental outcomes via greater popular participation in civic and political institutions (Bellows and Miguel 2006, Blattman 2009), and increases in trust and cooperation (Voors et al. 2010).

But the long-term destructive effects of violent conflict may remain entrenched in certain regions and among some population groups even if economic growth converges at the aggregate level. Recent research on the micro-level effects of violent conflict has shown that the negative impact of conflict on educational outcomes, labor market participation and health status of individuals and households may be observed decades after the conflict (Akbulut-Yuksel 2009, Akresh and de Walque 2008, Alderman, Hoddinott and Kinsey 2006, Bundervoet, Verwimp and Akresh 2009, Ibáñez and Moya 2009, Shemyakina, 2010). Although these effects may average out at the aggregate level, they may contribute to the emergence of poverty traps among specific groups affected by violence (Justino 2009, 2010a).

Children may be particularly affected by conflict given that many key human capital investments are age-specific. Violent conflict can interrupt the education of children through the destruction of schools, the targeting of teachers, the increase in fear and insecurity, changes in family structures and changes in household asset holdings and income (Justino 2010b, UNESCO 2011). Conflict may also impact negatively on children through health and nutritional channels, due to the association of violent conflict with famines, malnutrition, the outbreak of infectious diseases, post-war trauma, and the destruction of health facilities. In addition, household coping strategies during conflict often lead to rises in child labor and the removal of children from school (Rodriguez and Sanchez 2009). The destruction of human capital during childhood in turn is a well-documented mechanism underlying the emergence of poverty traps, given the severe long-run intergenerational effects it can have on individual and household welfare (Becker 1962, Case and Paxson 2008, Maccini and Young 2009, Mincer 1974, Shultz 1961).

These micro-level effects of violent conflict remain largely under-researched. In this paper, we focus on the analysis of the impact of 25 years of violent conflict in Timor Leste on several educational outcomes among cohorts of boys and girls of primary school age affected by the violence. We measure the short-term effects of conflict at the household level using information on

> 1 See discussion in Blattman and Miguel (2010), and evidence in Bellows and Miguel (2006), Davis and Weinstein (2002), Brakman, Garrtesen and Shramm (2004), Miguel and Roland (2006), Justino and Verwimp (2006) and Chen, Loayza and Reynal-Querol (2007).

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