**INTlOOUCaON LXW**

## **is of?n** ddived **hom** the U.N. publication _Mortalty of 0didren Under Age 5._

# **_F.adWy Dab_**

> Total felity rates for the qtlenquennia 1975-80, 1980-85 and 1985-90 are derived from the same mix of sources **as** mortality raes, including _World Population Prospects 1990;_ official sours, **as** cited in _Population and Vital Statiscs Report_ or in government publications; the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1985; Jamison, Johnson, and Engels :987); and Monnier (1988). We also relied on various surveys, especially in the Demographic and Health Surveys series. Often, these sources give fertility estimates for a different period or in terms of the crude birth rate, and appropriate total fertility rates were obtained by projection of earlier estimat or approximated using **availabl data on** age-sex composition and age-specific fertility. Table Al lists the specific source of the bis dat for each country and also indicates some case where an informal Bank estimate was made in the absnce of reliable data.

## **_M1gradon Data_**

Estimates of net international migration in recent periods, by sex, were made from a review of international migration statistics published by national immigration agencies, statistical orgnizations, and other official and unofficial sources; from country population estimates and projctions produced by international and regional agonies, national census and statistics offices, other government organizations, interagncy task forces, and research insdtutions; and from discions with expert in the subject. Arnold (1989) summarizes all these estimates. Subsequent revisions have been made in a number of cases for consistency with other projection parameters or because of recent events. For instance, the numbers of migrants for European countries have been adjusted because of substantial flows out of Eastern Europe.

For purposes of these estimates, those who have resided in countries different from their previous residences for at least a year or who are believed likely to remain permanently in receiving countries are considered migrants. An exception are refugees living in officially designated camps, who continue to be counted in their countries of origin regardless of period of residence. Only net estimates by quinquennium were made; immigration and emigration were not estimated separately, and single-year figures were not assessed.

# _Other_ **_Daka_**

Data on 1988 GNP per capita are from the World Bank Socioeconomic Data Base, and are as of mid-1990. Density is calculated as population per square kilometer of land area. The data on urbanization (urban population as a percentage of total population) are from the U.N. publication _Prospects of World Urbanization 1988,_ supplemented by data from the World Bank. Government assessments cf population growth rate and fertility are from the population policy data bank maintained by the U.N. Population Division. The sources for contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method mix data are given for each country in Table Al.

## Projection Methodology

Population projections were run by quinquennium using the cohort-component method (Shryock and Siegel 1975), as implemented in a microcomputer program, PROJ3L, developed for the Bank. (Hill 1990 documents PROJ3S, which is the same program except for allowing only 75-year rather than longer projections.) We describe here what assumptions were made about future trends in vital rates--mortality, fertility, and migration--for purposes of these projections.