grows according to UN projections and the estimated historical patterns and rates of improvement in energy consumption and carbon intensity hold going forward until 2050.

- For the reference _poverty-eradication_ scenario, all parameters remain the same as in the _no-poverty reduction_ scenario, except for per capita GDP growth which is calibrated to achieve full poverty eradication by 2050. In practice, we extrapolate current economic growth forecasts into the future in each country until the poverty reduction target is reached. For instance, in India, the 3% target would be met in 2027, based on current growth trends. Once the target is met in a country, we only count the GHG emissions associated with countries maintaining GDP per capita levels to keep people out of poverty. For countries that are not expected to grow enough to reach the poverty target by 2050, such as Nigeria, we instead model an annualized per capita economic growth rate that meets the poverty target in 2050. We show the implications of using other target years than 2050 in Extended Figure 13.

The emissions needed for poverty eradication are defined as the difference in emissions between the _poverty-eradication_ scenario and the counterfactual _no-poverty-reduction scenario,_ that is, the emissions from all per capita GDP growth occurring in poor countries until the poverty target is reached. For countries that are expected to reach the extreme poverty target by 2050, based on current growth trends, like India, the most likely future scenario will see more economic growth (and consequently emissions) than both the counterfactual no-poverty-eradication scenario and the poverty eradication scenario. For countries that are not expected to reach the target by 2050, like Nigeria, the most likely future scenario will see less growth (and emissions) than we model in the poverty-eradication scenario but more than in the no-poverty-reduction scenario (Extended Figure 12).

The important difference of this approach relative to previous studies is that we count the additional emissions from higher consumption of all people in each country (including non-poor people), not only the additional emissions from the people moving out of poverty. In India, for instance, around 6% of the population would need to exit extreme poverty for the target to be reached, but we count the additional emissions _from the entire population_ caused by the economic growth needed for eradicating poverty.

Figure 2, panel A shows the number of people lifted out of extreme poverty between 2023 and 2050 relative to the _no-poverty-reduction_ scenario, amounting to just over 1 billion in 2050. Of the 1 billion, 69% are in Sub-Saharan Africa, 19% in South Asia, and 5% in the Middle East and North Africa. Panel B shows the emissions associated with poverty eradication at different poverty lines.

We find the emissions associated with extreme poverty alleviation to be modest. Annual emissions are estimated to be 2.37 gigatons of CO2e (or 4.9% of 2019 global emissions) higher in 2050 when the extreme poverty target is reached, relative to the no poverty reduction scenario. Figure 3 shows that emissions increases are small in the initial years (0.3% in 2023) and increase through time as more and more people are lifted and kept out of poverty (1.7% in 2030, 2.9% in 2040). Of the additional emissions in 2050, 60% accrues in Sub-Saharan Africa, followed by 21% in South Asia, and 12% in East Asia & Pacific. At the country-level, 20% of additional emissions in 2050 accrues in India, followed by 6.3% in the Philippines, and 6% in Angola.

Achieving more ambitious poverty targets has more significant emissions consequences. Using the lower-middle-income poverty line of $3.65 per day, rather than the extreme poverty line of 5