# **Host communities**

There is currently no global estimate of affected host communities. Clearly defining and identifying affected host communities is critical from a development perspective to provide them with the support they need to absorb the shock caused by an influx of forcibly displaced persons. However, there is no agreed definition of what constitutes an affected host community. And while there are some anecdotal estimates of host populations for specific displacement situations at given times, there is no systematic aggregation. Yet, the number of people living in host communities and affected by forced displacement (positively or negatively) is likely to be large.

There are significant methodological issues in making such calculations. A very rough estimate may be based on the density of the forcibly displaced population within a particular area. UNHCR has data on the physical location of various groups of forcibly displaced persons that can be linked to estimates of the local population to calculate such densities. Yet, such detailed estimates are difficult to collect accurately. Furthermore, this approach requires some important assumptions on the threshold density above which a community is considered affected, as well as on the area that is included in the calculation: in the case of a rural refugee camp, the impact might be significant but geographically limited to the immediate vicinity while for forcibly displaced people dispersed in an urban environment it may be more diffuse. Despite such empirical challenges, identifying affected host communities is critical from a development perspective.

Estimating such numbers, however, is distinct from measuring the impact itself, which can be either positive or negative, and in most cases, is a combination of positive and negative impacts that vary over time. In the event of large and sudden flows of refugees and IDPs, the short-term impacts on host communities can be significant, and if they are not well managed, the impacts can be long lasting. A central question is how development organizations can support host countries to promote positive impacts and mitigate negative ones. The welfare of host communities also plays a critical role in the political economy of asylum and integration.

# **Socio-economic data on displaced populations, returnees and host communities**

Data from socio-economic assessments of displacement crises can usefully inform the design of recovery and development policies and associated assistance programs. However, currently there is little comprehensive data available on the socio-economic vulnerabilities and needs of displaced populations or on the social and economic impacts of displacement on host communities. Data on refugees are rarely captured in poverty statistics, which rely on national household surveys usually covering the resident population only, although there are some examples of displacement related questions on IDPs and migrant populations being incorporated into household surveys. Rather, data on the socio-economic impacts of this kind tend to be collected for specific displacement crises (see Box 5).

# **Box 5: Bank-Supported Socio-Economic Surveys and Assessments of Displaced and Host Populations**

- <mark>The “Socio-Economic Impact of the Crisis in North</mark> **<mark>Mali</mark>** <mark>on Displaced People” [completed in 2015] analyzes</mark> the impact of the 2012 crisis on IDPs in Bamako, refugees in camps in Mauritania and Niger, and returnees in the regional capitals of Gao, Timbuktu and Kidal, using data from a face-to-face household survey and follow-up interviews using mobile phones.

- In **Kenya** , a Bank study [ongoing] on the dynamics of the Kakuma refugee camp investigates price effects in food, labor, cattle and housing markets, relying on an original survey across Kakuma and another town<sup>98</sup> to collect data on household demographics, remittances, employment opportunities and trends, wages and prices.

- The Bank with UNHCR is undertaking a regional assessment of social, economic and environmental impacts of forced displacement in the **Lake Chad Basin** [ongoing] to consider the extent, causes, character and socio-economic impact of forced displacement in Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon and possibly CAR.

98 Recognizing that there are other factors impacting on the welfare of host communities over the 20-year lifespan of the Kakuma refugee camp, the analysis aims to construct a counterfactual to isolate the changes caused by the presence of refugees.