rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
the national level, for urban and rural areas in the 10 departments of the country, and for the urban area of Port-au-Prince. Although the DHS surveys do not include income or consumption information, it is possible to use the asset data to construct a wealth index, which we employ as a measure of socioeconomic status.

We complement the DHS with information from the 2003 School Census, which contains school-level information for all preschool, primary, and secondary schools in the country and includes information about whether each school is privately or publicly operated, the year the school was opened, and the fees charged.<sup>5</sup> An infrastructure module contains data on access to public services and school facilities. Finally, the census includes characteristics of the teaching personnel: the number of principal and secondary teachers in each grade and the age, gender, and contract status of each teacher. To assess the relationship between school supply and attendance, data on the local availability of schools from the census is matched with household information from the DHS.<sup>6</sup> Households are matched with the aggregated indices of school supply at the level of geographic units defined by urban areas within each _commune_ and (separately) rural areas within each _commune_ .

# **3. Historical Evolution of the Education Sector in Haiti** .

The dominant story in the twentieth century for Haitian education has been the anemic growth of the public school system and the explosive growth of the private school system beginning in the 1960s. Figure 1 shows the population of public and private schools by year from 1930 onwards (based on schools that existed at the time of the 2003 school census), along with estimates of the national population since 1960.<sup>7</sup> Until the early 1960s, most schools in Haiti were public. Thereafter, the share of public schools among all schools declined dramatically, falling to 21 percent in 1980 and just 8 percent in 2003. The number of private schools grew 27fold between 1960 and 2003, far exceeding the growth of the population, which grew by a factor

> 5 The 1982 education reform (Reforme Bernard) introduced a basic education system with three cycles: grades 1-4, 5-6, and 7-9.  In the census, the first two cycles make up “primary” education, with secondary education beginning at grade 7 and continuing through until grade 12.

> 6 Haiti is divided into 10 _departments_ , 41 _arrondissements_ , 133 _communes_ , and about 477 _sections communales_ . We match the DHS surveys to the School Census at the level of _commune_ because it is the lowest level for which there are geographical identifiers in the DHS.

> 7 The numbers underlying this figure were generated using information on year of founding of the school, among schools that still existed at the time of the 2003 school census. Consequently, to the extent that public and private schools close at different rates—and it is likely that a private school is more likely to close than a public school in any give year—the true population of schools at any given point will differ from that shown here.

4
37

* Money Creation: Must increase demand, thus allowing ani increase in real liquidity and disponibility since the opposite would slow growth.

* Interest Rates: Increased real interest rates do not raise saving, since the latter depends fundamentally on income, but they discourage productive investment...

* Exchange Rate: Depreciation of the exchange rate does not constitute an effective means of balancing the external accounts since only 15% of imports and 20% of exports are sensitive (elastic) to exchange rate changes. As a consequence, although it is necessary to avoid devaluation, the external flows muist be handled by more efficient selective methods.

The specific targets of the economic program are set out in Table 4.

Table 4 The 1986-90 Economic Development Plan

||1985|<br>1986|1987|1988|1989|<br>1990|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Growth|||||||
|GDP|1.4|6.5|6.2|6.1|6.3|6.2|
|Consumption|0.1|8.5|6.3|5.7|5.0|5.2|
|Exports|3.5|-13.6|4.8|5.8|5.9|5.9|
|Imports|-24.6|5.0|13.7|11.9|5.6|7.4|
|Investment|-12.3|12.0|<br>14.4|11.8|11.6|<br>10.7|
|Budget Deficita|0.6|2.3|<br>2.3|<br>2.1|1.8|<br>1.6|

a Percent of GDP Source: Presidencia de la Republica (1986) The new economic policy was based on four measures, as noted in Carbonetto et al (1987,p.15):

* Rapid expansion of effective demand via real wage increases.

* Financial de-strangulation to give firms relief and contain cost pressures by reducing financial costs of enterprises, effective interest rates, indirect taxes and other elements of costs.

* Reestablishment of selective exchange rates and abandonment of the devaluation policy.
turn, implies that our estimates can be understood as a lower bound.<sup>22</sup> <!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 4<br>Leads and lags coefficients<br>.6<br>.4<br>.2<br>0<br>-.2<br>-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5<br>Days from rebalancing = h<br>Coefficient of FIR (Instrumented) C.I. (95%)<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: This figure presents leads and lags coefficients from a 2SLS estimation of bond log prices on a set of trading-day dummies around each rebalancing event, using the same 2SLS procedure as in Table 2. The estimation includes bond characteristics-month fixed effects (maturity, rating, and bond type). The shaded area indicates the rebalancing on the month’s last business day, with _h_ = +1 for returns on that day and _h_ = _−_ 1 for returns on the preceding business day. The vertical red lines show a 95% confidence interval for each horizon. Standard errors are clustered at the country-month level.

The documented effects are heterogeneous across bonds with varying levels of default risk. To show this heterogeneity, we divide our sample into high- and low-spread bonds, those above and below the median spread in our sample, respectively. We estimate Equation (10) for each of these subsamples and report the results in Table 3. The table shows that the price of high-spread bonds is more sensitive to rebalancing shocks, with a 1 p.p. increase in the FIR associated with a 0 _._ 46 p.p. increase in bond returns. In contrast, for low-spread bonds, the effect is quantitatively close to zero and not statistically significant.<sup>23</sup>

# **3.4 Reduced-Form Demand Elasticities**

We can map the estimated reactions of bond prices to a reduced-form demand elasticity, as shown by rewriting Equation (3) to reflect our FIR measure: _η_ ˆ = ( _−_ )<sup>∆lo</sup> _FIR_<sup><u>g(</u></sup> _c,t_<sup>_<u>q</u>_</sup> _<u>t</u>_<sup>_i_</sup><sup><u>)</u>.Thisaligns</sup> 22Appendix Table 1 shows how our estimates change as we proportionally decrease the FIR measure (due to a lower share of passive funds). These results could serve as guidance for what might happen if the FIR measure were lower due to some investors’ portfolio rebalancings being anticipated.

> 23Appendix Table 4 divides bonds into three groups according to their spreads. We find that bond prices are positively associated with the FIR for both high (above 302 basis points) and medium (between 158 and 302 basis points) spread bonds. Instead, for low spread bonds (below 158 basis points), the relationship is statistically insignificant. Additionally, the estimated coefficient increases with the risk profile of the bonds.

19
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29
in all educational groups. In all countries except Albania, the cohort profiles are below those observed in EU countries. In Albania, the positive and concave profile of job tenure is observed only among lower-secondary graduates; upper-secondary and tertiary graduates have a stable or slightly decreasing cohort profile of job tenure. The reversal in the cohort profile observed for cohorts born after 1970 in the aggregate picture in Albania can thus be partly attributed to the increased educational attainment of those cohorts. These results suggest that the strong labor shedding in Albania had a particularly strong effect on people with less education. The substantial decrease in job tenure across birth cohorts cannot be explained solely by differences in educational attainments, as the negative trend persists for every educational group.

Another source of compositional change across birth cohorts could be gender differences in labor force participation. However, transition economies have smaller gender gaps than developed market economies (Pignatti 2020). Moreover, the gender gap did not change substantially over time, except in <mark>Türkiye,</mark> the nontransition comparator in the sample, where female labor participation rose from less than 25 percent in 2004–08 to 34 percent in 2018 (Tunali, Kirdar, and <u>Dayiogl 2021).</u> Figures <u>6 and 7</u> present the age and cohort profile of average tenure by gender. They show that job tenure decreased for the younger cohorts of men and women in all countries except Albania. This finding suggests that compositional changes in labor force participation by gender cannot fully account for the aggregate negative tenure trend observed across birth cohorts. It is noteworthy, however, that the age profile of EU countries is almost always above that of transition economies for men and mostly below it for women. Women in transition economies tend to have full-time, permanent jobs; in richer EU countries, the prevalence of part-time (and thus, more unstable) jobs for women is greater (EuroStat 2020). This difference may explain why, on average, women in transition countries have longer average job tenure than women in EU countries throughout their lifetimes.

# **6.2 Long-term trends in job tenure**

The APC decomposition reveals a strong negative trend in average job tenure across generations in the transition economies of Europe. Given that these countries are undergoing a process of structural change with significant labor reallocation, it may be that changes in employment characteristics, such as occupational composition or the prevalence of different contract types, 15
more cautious. Nonetheless, this did not make forint-denominated loans more attractive, given the persistently high levels of forint interest rates. Thus, precautionary considerations became dominant on the supply side as well. Several banks removed CHF-denominated loans from their product range at the beginning of the crisis, while others severely tightened credit conditions. Net lending was, therefore, already negative throughout 2009.

Household lending remained weak in 2010. New disbursement was partly moderated by regulatory changes introduced during the year (see in details later). Moreover, the precautionary considerations of households intensified. In the course of 2010 the Swiss franc strengthened against the forint significantly, leading to a sharp increase in the debt-servicing burdens of households. Meanwhile, the labor market environment remained unfavorable. Consequently, despite their frail income positions, the households had to spend increasing amounts on debt service, which drastically decreased their willingness to borrow. As regards banks, lending was inhibited mainly by the rapidly deteriorating portfolio. Through the deterioration of the capital position, substantial loan losses are also detrimental to household lending. Accordingly, based on the MNB‘s forecast, lending is not expected to start recovering until the second half of 2012 (Chart 17).

**Chart 17. Net change in loans outstanding to households**

<!-- Start of picture text --> HUF Bn HUF Bn<br>500 500<br>400 400<br>Forecast<br>300 300<br>200 200<br>100 100<br>0 0<br>-100 -100<br>-200 -200<br>-300 -300<br>Loans from banks - HUF Loans from banks - FX<br>Loans from financial enterprises - HUF Loans from financial enterprises - FX<br>Total lending<br>2008Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: MNB. Note: ―Banks‖ includes banks, branches, and cooperative credit institutions.

The delayed turning point in household lending is part of the inevitable adjustment process. The main risk in this regard is not the downturn in lending but the rapid deterioration of the portfolio. As unsecured loans are associated with weaker willingness to repay, primarily it was these loans that went delinquent at the beginning of the crisis. However, in 2009 the quality of mortgage loans—which constitute the bulk of the loan portfolio—also began to deteriorate with increased installment amounts resulting from unfavorable exchange rate and interest rate developments combined with a negative labor market environment. This not only worsens banks‘ stability and lending ability, it also generates severe social tensions. To tackle the problem, the Government adopted a moratorium on evictions from the properties serving as collateral for nonperforming loans as early as 2009. After several extensions, the eviction and foreclosure moratorium remained in effect until July 2011. However, this regulation merely addresses the social aspect of 21
biased. In table Y we present results for four different fixed effects estimations for the youth sample from IFLS (aged 15 to 38) that are working 35 hours or more per week. Similarly, the same estimations for older adults (aged over 38) are presented in table X. We split the sample based on age as the early experiences of youth in the workforce may impact their future labor market outcomes in a qualitatively different manner to older adults. We first discuss the four estimations for youth and will then contrast these results to the estimations for adults.

The first estimation in Table Y (FE1) is for a simplified model of the log of monthly earnings as a function of past employment experience, education and controls for hours worked per week and dummy variables for year fixed effects (not reported). It excludes other job characteristics because they are not present across all 4 waves of IFLS. Unsurprisingly, in FE1, school education has positive and significant returns. A university degree is also associated with a large increase in wages, of about 28%, though there is no detectable return to a college degree.

|Table Y: Monthly earnings and work experie|nce for youth,|fixed effect|s estimates||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|VARIABLES|(FE1)|(FE2)|(FE3)|(FE4)|
|hours worked in a normal week|0.003*|0.003*|0.002|0.002|
||(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.002)|(0.002)|
|Years in primary and secondary school|0.036*|0.035*|0.036*|0.036*|
||(0.019)|(0.019)|(0.021)|(0.021)|
|Is a university graduate|0.280**|0.255*|0.297**|0.296**|
||(0.140)|(0.141)|(0.149)|(0.149)|
|Is a college graduate|0.094|0.083|0.110|0.110|
||(0.142)|(0.142)|(0.148)|(0.148)|
|Years mostly self-employed|-0.033*|-0.033*|-0.045**|-0.045**|
||(0.017)|(0.017)|(0.018)|(0.018)|
|Years mostly in government employment|0.032|0.031|0.014|0.014|
||(0.021)|(0.021)|(0.023)|(0.023)|
|Years mostly in private sector employment|-0.004|-0.008|-0.025|-0.026|
||(0.016)|(0.016)|(0.017)|(0.017)|
|Industry: Mining and quarrying||0.161|0.214|0.213|
|||(0.212)|(0.239)|(0.239)|
|Industry: Manufacturing||0.157**|0.147*|0.147*|
|||(0.071)|(0.076)|(0.076)|
|Industry: Electricity, gas, water||0.088|-0.023|-0.022|
|||(0.298)|(0.338)|(0.338)|
|Industry: Construction||0.186**|0.164*|0.164*|
|||(0.087)|(0.092)|(0.092)|
|Industry: Wholesale, retail, restaurants, hotels||0.030|0.062|0.061|
|||(0.075)|(0.080)|(0.080)|
|Industry: Transport, storage, communications||0.128|0.148|0.145|
|||(0.093)|(0.099)|(0.099)|
|Industry: Finance, insurance, real estate, business|||||
|services||0.214|0.264|0.265|

27
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18
out of these workshops which were debated vigorously at a local level and then were taken up again at a national level. Examples include:

- Constant concerns expressed by poor households that they lacked information on their entitlements, rights, and activities of local Government;

- Clear evidence of inequities at the intra-household level, especially gender issues;

- The multiple, interlocking disadvantages - economic and non-economic - which confront poor ethnic minority households;

- A need to investigate the processes for levying fees and contributions at a commune level (raised by the Ha Tinh PPA and subsequently taken up in the PER);

- A need to create a local policy environment conducive to the development of off-farm employment opportunities (raised in the Tra Vinh PPA and followed up with a focused study by the Mekong Project Development Facility)

- A need to look again at the status of migrants (discussed vigorously in Ho Chi Minh City and raised in _"Vietnam: Attacking Poverty"_ as a pressing issue).

No qualitative information has received this level of profile before in Vietnam, certainly at a national level. Many of these issues have been raised before in good quality participatory research on poverty, but the ability to bring the issues to national policymaking level has been very limited. Associating the PPAs with the work of the PWG and putting resources into a process which draws in local and central policy makers _and_ major donors has been important in drawing the link between findings and policymaking. The commitment shown by the World Bank and other members of the PWG in incorporating the PPA findings widely into _Vietnam: Attacking Poverty_ has also brought the findings fully into the realm of policy debate.

# **_Limitations of the design_**

There is near unanimous agreement on the PWG (and in the wider donor and Government comrnunity) that having the PPAs available to inform the national diagnosis of poverty has been extremely valuable and illuminating. There have been certain limitations to the usefulness, however:

- I . The four PPAs were chosen to illustrate the problems of the poor in a range of different circumstances. Four studies are inadequate to capture some poverty situations, however. The Central Highlands is an extremely poor area with a particular set of problems, which are overlooked by not having a PPA in this region. This is an important limitation to the PPA findings;

2. Certain vulnerable groups were not really covered in depth in all PPAs (e.g. children) or at all in some PPAs (e.g. the disabled); 3. Many have commented that the information is not representative in any statistical sense. This is, of course, true. It worked very well to use the PPA information alongside nationally representative household survey data. It is difficult to imagine how the PPAs might have been set in the national context effectively and convincingly _without_ the household survey data. Attention often focuses on the value 15