displacement is not considered to be protracted because disaggregated data on South Sudan is only available from the country’s independence in 2011.

Addressing some of these methodological issues produces an estimate of average duration that is lower than those published by UNHCR. A recent study by Devictor and Do, “How many years do refugees spend in exile” (2016), estimates the average duration of all refugee situations in 2014 (excluding Palestinian refugees) at 10.7 years, and the median duration at about 3 years, i.e. half of people who are currently refugees have spent 4 years or more in exile.<sup>57</sup> Since 1991, the average duration of all refugee situations has fluctuated between about 8 years in 1991 and a peak of 15 years in 2006. The study also finds that among current refugees, 5.3 million may have been displaced for five years or more (i.e. in protracted situations). The number of refugees in protracted displacement has been remarkably stable since 1991, at 5 million to 7 million throughout most of the period. At the end of 2014, the average duration of protracted refugee situations is estimated at 18 years.<sup>58</sup>

**Table 3: Alternative Estimate of Protracted Refugee Situations end-2014**

||**All**<br>**Refugee**<br>**Situations**|**Protracted**<br>**Situations**|**Refugee**|
|---|---|---|---|
|**Average duration**|10.7 years|18.3 years||
|**Number of refugees in protracted refugee**<br>**situations**||5.3 million||

_Source_ : Devictor and Do (2016).

Nevertheless, estimates of average duration, however flawed, do provide insights into the extent of the burden on host countries and communities and the impacts on the displaced themselves. The average duration of forced displacement influences public perceptions of the likely burden on host countries and communities. And as duration of displacement lengthens and people remain in limbo for longer, recovery becomes more challenging. Figure 21 gives an indication of the historical and current distribution of refugee situations by duration. Figure 22 shows the number of refugees in ongoing displacement situations by duration. The most recent cohort of refugees who have been displaced for less than three years include refugees from South Sudan, Pakistan, Ukraine, Syria and the Central African Republic (CAR). The extremely large numbers of refugees displaced for three up to five years is largely accounted for by more than 3.5 million people fleeing the Syrian conflict, as well as refugees from Sudan, South Sudan and Mali. Another relatively large cohort of 1.8 million has been displaced for five years up to ten years and includes significant numbers of refugees from Colombia, Somalia, Myanmar, CAR, DRC and Iraq. The next large cohort of refugees has been displaced between 35 and 40 years and is largely accounted for by refugees from Afghanistan and Vietnam.

# **Figure 21: Duration of Refugee Situations 1951 – 2014**

> 57 These numbers are very sensitive to specific situations. For example, if Afghan refugees are excluded from the calculation, the average duration of exile for current refugees drops to 5.3 years. If Syrian refugees are excluded, it goes up to 14.5 years. Yet, if both Afghanistan and Syria (the large numbers on both ends of the spectrum) are taken out, the average goes back to about 11.3 years, and the median to about 4 years.

> 58 This estimate is very sensitive to a specific situation: if Afghanistan is excluded the average drops to 10.5 years.