rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
a PMT model ([62.8%]). Whether similar gains can be achieved in a less densely populated setting is an open question. Similarly, the assumptions of a uniform time per question and the ability to expand survey coverage to nearly the whole area population might prove overoptimistic in a real-world setting. Nevertheless, the urban case study highlights the potential benefit of expanding targeting survey coverage in some settings, even if it entails a moderate accuracy penalty.

A census sweep of the whole population with an extensive questionnaire would provide the most comprehensive data for accurate targeting. But if budgets are constrained, surveying more households with a shorter questionnaire may yield the best results. Beyond maximizing incidence with limited resources, policymakers would also enjoy greater flexibility through the methods presented here. The resources needed to conduct regular reassessment constrain targeting surveys to be conducted with multi-year gaps in the case of survey waves, and potentially also increase the re-assessment intervals in on-demand systems. A reduction in survey cost could contribute to a more dynamically supportive social protection system by raising the frequency of assessment and re-assessment. It is also worth noting that TrESt’s efficient use of survey resources via household-level early stopping, a suitably truncated questionnaire, and a more effective predictive model appears to offer a clear accuracy improvement over the standard PMT for a given average questionnaire length.

To generate transparent results, our simulations consider a single programme with a fixed population coverage rate. Countries with social registries, of which Indonesia’s DTKS is a well-documented example, usually target multiple programmes with differing population coverage rates that result in different eligibility thresholds. Prediction interval-based methods can be adjusted to this common scenario by using an eligibility interval instead of a threshold. The appropriate interval for each household can be identified according to characteristics queried in the core questionnaire. _Ceteris paribus_ , wider eligibility intervals will result in longer questionnaires on average. A related caveat is that the targeting accuracy of new programmes that leverage existing consumption estimates but which have different eligibility thresholds – widely adopted during the recent COVID-19 pandemic – will be lower than that of estimates based on full questionnaires or newly collected data. Policymakers considering the introduction of a TrESt-style method are advised to simulate such contingencies in a fully calibrated model.

Implementation of the TrESt algorithm would require changes to enumeration practice. Software is one aspect, as it requires on-the-fly inference of prediction intervals for the stopping criterion. For Indonesia, an existing Android app used for the targeting survey could be adjusted for this purpose, but survey bodies elsewhere that currently rely on paper or offthe-shelf digital questionnaires would require new software. Deployment on sufficiently powerful hardware, such as a mid-range tablet or smartphone 29
# **-** **<u>Table  A3: Decomposition Results: Contribution to Total Poverty Change (2010 1995)</u>**

||**A**|**ll**|**Ur**|**ban**|**Ru**|**ral**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**FGT(0)**|**FGT(1)**|**FGT(0)**|**FGT(1)**|**FGT(0)**|**FGT(1)**|
|_Equation (1)_|||||||
|Consumption-income ratio|-3.62***|-1.13***|-1.12***|-.9**|-3.68***|-1.45***|
|Share of adults|-5.87***|-2.32***|-4.68***|-2.09***|-5.26***|-1.9***|
|Share of workers|.67***|.87**|-2.38**|-1.31***|0.19|0.64|
|Labor income|-17.39***|-9.6***|-6.56***|-3.23***|-16.18***|-9.17***|
|Capital income|1.85***|1.96***|-0.35|-0.01|3.28***|2.55***|
|Remittances|-9.2***|-5.08***|-4.69***|-2.11***|-10.4***|-5.8***|
|Total effect|-33.57|-15.31|-19.77|-9.65|-32.05|-15.13|
|_Equation (2)_|||||||
|Consumption-income ratio|-2.78***|-1.22***|.69**|0.72|-1.68***|-0.13|
|Share of adults|-6.6***|-2.71***|-5.85***|-2.94***|-5.67***|-2.19***|
|Share of workers|.5**|.59**|1.02|0.44|.61***|0.42|
|Share of agriculture workers|0.02|0.06|-1.25***|-0.04|-0.14|0.06|
|Share of non-agriculture workers|-0.25|-0.06|.05*|0.15|-.27***|0.08|
|Agriculture income|-5.27***|-2.21***|-6.74***|-3.12***|-7.12***|-3.28***|
|Non-agriculture income|-14.51***|-7.01***|-7.96***|-3.28***|-13.85***|-7.04***|
|Capital income|1.25***|1.24***|-1.81*|-0.15|2.18***|1.51***|
|Remittances|-5.49***|-2.81***|-2.48***|-.79***|-6.4***|-3.46***|
|Total effect|-33.13|-14.13|-24.34|-9.01|-32.32|-14.03|

_*p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.00._ Source: World Bank Staff Calculation using 1995 and 2010 NLSS 33
Prior to this intervention, ITC purchased soybean from traders (operating in the _mandis_ ) and processed the beans to produce edible oil and DOC for sale in the domestic and international market. Since ITC did not have any direct contact with the farmers, it commissioned certain traders (called commission agents) to buy soybean from the _mandis_ on its behalf. The company was dependent on its agents’ knowledge about local farmers and their produce.

Interviews with ITC officials revealed that the distortion of quality undertaken by the agents meant that the company paid a high price for a lower overall quality of soybean, which upon processing yielded less oil and more contaminated DOC.<sup>11</sup> ITC believed that by bypassing the intermediaries, it would be able to better control the quality of the produce and also lower its transaction costs. Moreover, the company had dual roles for the infrastructure that it was creating as it planned to sell its own consumer products in rural areas in the future. According to Richa Kumar (2004), “ITC calculated that it saved Rs. 12.9 million in the first year of operation through better quality oil and DOC obtained from processing soybeans procured through the _e-Choupal_ intervention.” This intervention provided an alternative both to ITC for procuring soybean and to soy farmers for selling their produce. Beginning in the year 2000, ITC established a total of 1700 internet kiosks and 45 hubs over the course of 4.25 years in the major soy growing districts of the state.<sup>12</sup> The intervention has two dimensions. Internet kiosks were set up in villages that provide information about _mandi_ prices to soy farmers in the state. Each internet kiosk was designed to cater to its host village and four other neighboring villages within a five kilometer radius (Coimbatore Prahalad 2003). The internet kiosks are managed and operated by farmers, trained in basic computer usage, who are selected from within the village and provide free services to other soy farmers.<sup>13</sup>

> 11Agents buy soybean of varying quality throughout the day. They mix different grades of quality and sell the lot to the company at a high price. Moreover, agents often ask ITC to increase its price saying that the price is too low for them to buy any soybean in the _mandis_ .

> 12The full cost for setting up the infrastructure was borne by ITC and farmers could use these services free of charge.

> 13A host village is typically a middle rung village with a population of 1000-3000 (according to the 1991 census). The computer equipment is typically placed in a farmer’s house who receives 0.5 percent of the value of each transaction that is made through the kiosk at the ITC hub, thereby giving him the incentive to spread price information widely to other farmers.

9
tidiscrimination legislation. No other country studied shows a similar commitment to training the front-liners. Also, all economies except Vietnam have established a specialized body to receive complaints for violations of human rights. In Bulgaria, Mexico, and the Netherlands, those human rights bodies hear complaints of discrimination against ethnic, religious, and LGBTI groups. The Commission for Human Rights and Good Governance in Tanzania hears complaints of discrimination only on ethnic and religious grounds. In Morocco, the National Council for Human Rights is concerned mostly with the rights of women, children, persons with disabilities, detainees, and migrant workers.<sup>44</sup> The newly established Authority for Equality and the Combat of All Forms of Discrimination addresses discrimination based on ethnic and religious grounds but does not include a judicial mandate to hear complaints<sup>45</sup> (see figure 2).

Figure 2: Does the Country Have a Specialized Body Tasked with Hearing Complaints of Discrimination against Ethnic, Religious, or Sexual Minorities?

<!-- Start of picture text --> Bulgaria Mexico Morocco Netherlands Tanzania Vietnam<br>Ethnic minorities Religious minorities Sexual orientation Gender identity<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source_ : World Bank Equality Project.

This brief overview of the results of the sections of the three surveys covering access to institutions enables one to make a few general considerations. First, all countries have some provisions to protect the rights of ethnic and religious minorities, but the level of protection varies greatly, with some countries directly or indirectly discriminating against those groups through other national legislation and other countries lacking appropriate legislation. Second, LGBTI communities are the least protected under the law, particularly in countries such as Morocco<sup>46</sup> and Tanzania,<sup>47</sup> where homosexuality is criminalized. Bulgaria is the only economy that has passed a comprehensive law that protects against discrimination on both sexual orientation and gender identity grounds. Finally, enforcement mechanisms for the implementation of nondiscrimination legislation are scarce and do not always equally address the needs of all targeted groups.

> 44 United Nations Doc. A/HRC/WG.6/13/MAR/1, National report submitted in accordance with paragraph 5 of the annex to Human Rights Council resolution 16/21, March 8, 2012, para. 20.

> 45 HuffPost Moroc, Le projet de loi sur l’Autorité pour la parité adopté (May 10, 2016), <u>http://www.huffpostmaghreb.com/2016/05/10/loi-autorite-parite-maroc_n_9886560.html.</u> 46 Penal Code (2015), art. 489.

> 47 Penal Code of 1945, art.154 and art. 157. A careful analysis of the law suggests that only gay, not lesbian, relationships are prohibited under the law.

Anti-Discrimination Law and Shared Prosperity 16
person as the metric for defining poverty.<sup>8</sup> Yet, while it is true that the World Bank puts considerable emphasis on the need to reduce consumption or income poverty, it is certainly not true that human development is ignored; indeed, this topic has a prominent place in the Bank‘s work program, side-by-side with its focus on income poverty.<sup>9</sup> A similar comment can be made regarding environmental sustainability, which has a prominent place in the Bank‘s work.

The fact that a welfare indicator is in monetary units cannot be objectionable _per se_ . One could in principle construct a money-metric of almost any agreed (multidimensional but welldefined) welfare concept. A strand of the economics literature on welfare measurement has taken this route, by deriving money metrics of welfare from an explicit formulation of the individual and social welfare functions.<sup>10</sup> Conventionally, those functions have been seen to depend on command over commodities (allowing for inequality aversion), but the approach can be extended to important ―non-income‖ dimensions of welfare. For example, Jones and Klenow (2010) introduce life expectancy into a money metric of social welfare (embodying inequality aversion) based on expected utilities, where life expectancy determines the probability of realizing positive welfare (with utility scaled to be zero at death). Arguably the important issue is not the use of a monetary metric, but whether one has used the right components and prices in evaluating that metric.

Some mashup indices have alluded to theoretical roots, to help give credibility. However, there is invariably a large gap between the theoretical ideal and what is implemented. For example, the HDI claims support from Sen‘s writings arguing that human capabilities are the relevant concept for defining welfare or well-being (see, for example, Sen, 1985). Yet it is quite unclear how one goes from Sen‘s relatively abstract formulations in terms of functionings and capabilities to the specific mashup index that is the HDI. Why, for example, does the HDI include GDP, which Sen explicitly questions as a relevant space for measuring welfare?<sup>11</sup> Sen

> 8   The latest update described in Chen and Ravallion (2010).

> 9   The Bank devotes a great deal of attention to the measurement of health and education attainments and the quality of public services as part of its Human Development Vice-Presidency and its Human Development and Public Services division within the research department.

> 10  For example, under certain conditions a money metric of aggregate social welfare can be derived by deflating national income by appropriate social cost of living indices; for a good overview of this literature see Slesnick (1998).

> 11  Presumably in response to this question, more recent HDRs have provided a ―non-income HDI‖ that exclude GDP per capita. However, the bulk of attention goes to the ordinary HDI. Anand and Sen (2000)

9
<mark>Manser, M., & Brown, M. (1980). Marriage and householddecision-making: A bargaining analysis.</mark> _<mark>International economic review</mark>_ <mark>, 31-44.</mark> <mark>McElroy, M. B., & Horney, M. J. (1981). Nash-bargained household decisions: Toward a generalization of the theory of demand.</mark> _<mark>International economic review</mark>_ <mark>, 333-349.</mark> <mark>O'Hara, C., & Clement, F. (2018). Power as agency: A critical reflection on the measurement of women’s empowerment in the development sector.</mark> _<mark>World Development</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>106</mark>_ <mark>, 111-123.</mark> <mark>Pollari, P. (2017). The power of assessment: What (dis) empowers students in their EFL assessment in a Finnish upper secondary school?.</mark> _<mark>Apples: Journal of Applied Language Studies</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>11</mark>_ <mark>.</mark> Poutvaara, P., & Schwefer, M. (2018). _Husbands' and wives' diverging perceptions on who decides_ (No. 279). Ifo Working Paper.

<mark>Pratley, P., (2016). Associations between quantitative measures of women's empowerment and access to care and health status for mothers and their children: a systematic review of evidence from the developing world.</mark> _<mark>Social Science & Medicine</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>169</mark>_ <mark>, pp.119-131.</mark> <mark>Rappaport, J. (1987). Terms of empowerment/exemplars of prevention: Toward a theory for community psychology.</mark> _<mark>American Journal of Community Psychology, 15</mark>_ <mark>, 121-148.</mark> 34
for by the bottom 10 percent of exporters rises from about 0.8 to 1.2 percent. In contrast, the share of labor among top 10 percent of exporters declines from around 63 to 60 percent. In a similar way, Panels C and D show that there is a reallocation of labor units from old to young exporters.

Finally, as can be seen in Panel E of Figure 6, while the policy raises export quality it leads at best to a small improvement in the overall quality of goods available to consumers. For example, a standard leading to an increase in the quality of exported goods by about 8 percent raises the overall quality of goods available to consumers by less than one percent. Thus, consumers face higher prices and experience almost no difference in the quality of goods available to them. This effect is primarily driven by the rapid decline in the number of exporters relative to domestic firms. Although export quality rises, the proportion of exporting firms declines much faster (as seen in Panel D) yielding a small contribution of higher export quality to the overall quality of goods available to consumers. The latter effect may even dominate: a standard leading to a relatively large improvement in the average quality of exported goods (over 16 percent) leads to a decline in the overall quality of goods available to consumers.

# **6 Conclusion**

We used detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to document new facts about the joint evolution of firm performance and prices over the life cycle: (1) within narrow product categories, firms with longer spells of activity in a destination tend to export larger quantities at similar prices to that market; and (2) older or more experienced exporters tend to import more expensive inputs. In line with previous research, we also reported evidence that the positive relationship between export revenue and market experience reflects growth, not just market selection based on initial size; and that revenue growth within destinations (conditional on initial size) tends to decline with export-age.

To account for the joint observation of these patterns in the data, we developed a theory of endogenous input and output quality choices in a learning environment. In the model, firms supply products of varying quality based on their beliefs about idiosyncratic expected demand. Through the life-cycle, an average surviving firm updates its demand expectations upwards, grows, and, as a result, finds it optimal to upgrade the quality of outputs, which requires using higher quality inputs. Because higher quality inputs are more expensive, average input prices increase with export experience. The evolution of output prices is less clear-cut. On the one hand, quality upgrading leads to a higher price. On the other hand, an increase in demand expectations increases profitability and causes a price reduction. Hence the model is able to rationalize the varying behavior of input and output prices over the firm life cycle observed in the data.

Calibrated to match the observed age-dependence of export growth and input prices, our model slightly over predicts the conditional size-dependence of growth rates that 20
agreements, which the MDGs loosely resemble. Third, it argues that a more psychologically, morally, and politically salient development framework would better promote political mobilization, and provides illustrative examples for how to increase salience.

# **What were the MDGs?**

It may be easier to state what the Millennium Development Goals were not than to characterize what they were. From the perspective of international law, the Declaration that emerged from the Millennium Summit was neither a treaty nor a binding international instrument. Although the Millennium Declaration was a Resolution adopted by heads of state gathered for the UN General Assembly, there was no reference in the Declaration to a ratification process, which accompanies treaties, nor was the document officially listed in the UN Treaty Database. Although parliamentary involvement in the MDG process did take place in a few countries (for instance, in 2005 the Parliament of Mongolia passed a resolution on the MDGs that established a ninth goal on human rights and democratic governance), these did not amount to a formal assumption of internationally recognized obligations.<sup>2</sup> Over the years, through national declarations, the MDGs may arguably have contributed to evolving norms in international customary law (Alston, 2005), but that, if true, is the exception that proves the rule: the MDGs constituted a weak form of legalization.

The hallmarks of a legalized international regime are obligation, precise, and delegation (Abbott, Keohane, Moravcsik, Slaughter, & Snidal, 2000). The “hardest” forms of legalization occur when formal procedures (such as accession to an agreement, the possibility of reservations, provisions for withdrawal) are used to establish obligations, when there are mechanisms for monitoring compliance and penalizing failure to comply, when specific and authoritative organizations are tasked with these compliance monitoring and sanctioning functions, and when the rules that underlie the obligations are precise and

> 2 Manning (2010) notes that at least ten countries added new goals or modified those of the MDGs. Albania, Iraq, and Mongolia added goals on good governance and/or fighting corruption; Armenia, Cambodia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan modified goal 2 to include providing eight or nine years of education to all children; and Colombia and Mongolia added relevant national infectious diseases to goal 6. Another 15 countries added or modified targets, and 25 more added or modified indicators.

4
Table 4. Global demand and Indonesian Exports. 2005-2010 and 2011-2015 Panel A: 2005-2010

|Dependent variable:|IDN exports<br>per worker|IDN exports<br>per worker|IDN exports<br>per worker|IDN exports<br>per worker *<br>ICT|
|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|
|Global demand for foreign products|0.00105<br>(0.000)***|0.00105<br>(0.000)***|0.000806<br>(0.000)***|-0.00004<br>(0.000)**|
|Global demand for foreign products *|||0.00195|0.00165|
|Share of hhlds with computer|||(0.000567)***|(0.00016)***|
|ICT at the province level|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Province level controls|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Industry level controls|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Province, industry and year FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|3,123|3,123|3,123|3,123|
|R-squared|0.978|0.978|0.981|0.934|
|F-stat|1,298|1,296|724|933|
|Panel B: 2011-2015<br>Dependent variable:|IDN exports<br>per worker|IDN exports<br>per worker|IDN exports<br>per worker|IDN exports<br>per worker *<br>ICT|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|
|Global demand for foreign products|0.000341<br>(0.000)***|0.000342<br>(0.000)***|0.000385<br>(0.000)***|-0.000145<br>(0.000)***|
|Global demand for foreign products *|||-0.000305|0.00113|
|Share of hhlds with computer|||(0.000352)|(0.000101)***|
|ICT at the province level|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Province level controls|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Industry level controls|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Province, industry and year FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|2,734|2,734|2,734|2,734|
|R-squared|0.983|0.983|0.983|0.946|
|F-stat|56.91|56.90|34.25|69.90|

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Sakernas 2005-2010 and 2011-2015, Susenas 2005-2010 and 2011-2015, and UN Comtrade database 2005-2010 and 2011-2015.

Notes: OLS regressions. Indonesian exports per worker in thousands of USD at 2010 prices and global demand for foreign products in millions of USD at 2010 prices. ICT variable at the province level is the share of households with computer. Province level controls include the age structure of the population, the share of urban population, real GDP per capita, and the minimum wage level. Industry level controls include the gender and educational composition of employment. All models include province, industry, year fixed effects, and province linear time trends. Robust standard errors between parentheses clustered by province-industry. ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% confidence levels, respectively.

25