# **Introduction**

In the late 1980s and during much of the 1990s, many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) initiated agricultural policy reforms either as part of wider structural adjustment programs or as self-standing reform programs. Agricultural growth rates recorded after the reforms have been uneven and in many countries the sustained agricultural growth observed in Asia and Latin America was not replicated (Akiyama _et al_ 2001 and 2003). Kherallah _et al_ (2002, p. 157) conclude that: “Despite positive changes in some sectors and some countries, the overwhelming current consensus is that the overall limited supply price response in Sub-Saharan Africa is due to structural and institutional constraints that have been ignored by market reforms.” Baffes and Garner (2003) have shown that outcomes are highly diverse and that it is not straightforward to determine the reasons for success and failure.

This paper summarizes the findings of nine country case studies of commodity market reforms in SSA. These expand on previous work by placing the reforms in the context of the political economy of redistribution generated by the policy changes, and focusing on the ability of the new institutional structures created through the reforms to accommodate shocks (North _et al_ 2009). We adapt the analytical framework developed by Rodrik (1999) to analyze GDP growth patterns, which suggests that the ability to respond to negative external shocks is related to the degree of social conflict and prevalent institutions of conflict management. The agricultural policy reforms implemented in the late 1980s and 1990s in SSA involved the reduction or elimination of regulatory and fiscal constraints on the private sector, redistributing income from the previous groups of intermediaries to the producers, many of whom were smallholders. In order for this redistribution to be sustained and successful there had to be some agreement among the stakeholders on the desirability and acceptability of the new set of arrangements, and the resulting income distribution.

During the initial stage that followed a policy reform such as marketing liberalization, there was often a surge in private sector activity resulting from increased producer prices as competition among traders increased or because export taxes were reduced. Producers responded to these higher prices and re-committed to the crop or activity. During this stage, production often increased and the reform appeared to be successful. These initial positive responses were reversed in many cases when unforeseen developments or shocks took place such as a price collapse, crop diseases, and/or private sector became unsuccessful in its efforts. Such initial positive responses and the subsequent reversals suggest the distinction between growth accelerations and sustained growth episodes also can apply at the sectoral level.<sup>1</sup>

> 1 The timing of the reforms - mostly in the early 1990s- coincided with increases in international commodity prices. The period 1990-1997 was characterized by increasing international commodity prices. These prices began to decline in 1997 in tandem with the Asian financial crisis. The period of declining and low prices continued until 2002 after which there was another price increase in a price spike in 2008. The price declines that occurred after 1997 were passed on to the producers but, in most of the cases in our sample, the post-2000 price increases were not passed on

2