destination from _taluk_ in base year 2003, and R is the total number of current migrants living in migration destination kk tt in base year 2003. The weights are calculated as EEtt,2003 R = RR,2013 (R 2013 −R )�P kk where R is the number of returning migrants from migration WW kk kk kk tt,2013 tt,2013 tt,2013 destination RR back to RR _taluk_ in current year 2013, PP RR R 2013 is the number of returning migrants from kk migration destination kk in current year 2013, and tt P RR is the population of _taluk_ in current year 2013. tt,2013 Similarly, R kk<sup>= (R</sup> 2013 −R )�P PP , where R is the number of current tt kk kk kk II,2013 tt,2013 tt,2013 tt,2013 migrants living in migration destination WW EE EE, R 2013 is the number of current migrants living in migration PP EE kk destination in current year 2013, and Pkk EE is the population of _taluk_ in current year 2013. tt,2013 kk PP tt The IV regression was estimated using the following Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) model: 0 1 R 2 R<sup>+ ββ</sup> 3<sup>WW</sup> R<sup>+ ββ</sup> 4<sup>WW</sup> R<sup>+ ββ</sup> 5<sup>XX</sup> kk ii RR,2003 II,2003 II,2013 RR,2013 ii<sup>+ εε</sup> ii RR = ββ + ββ ZZ + ββ ZZ 0 1 2 kk II ii ii ii where is predicted from the instrumental variable, “Bartik Share” analogy of returning migrants YY = αα + αα RR + αα XX + εε kk ii R RR and R , and current migrants R R RR,2003 RR,2013 II,2003<sup>and WW</sup> RR,2013<sup>, using a Probit estimation.9</sup> ZZ The 2SLS with IVs techniques consider not only the fact that emigrants are not a random sample WW ZZ of the population, but also that those migrants who return home are selected based on unobservable characteristics. Among various IV estimators, the 2SLS estimator is the most efficient and is obtained by

> 9 As a robustness check, this paper also used migrant networks as an IV. For these estimations, the IVs accounted for the fact that it is less risky for migrants to migrate to an area with earlier migrants from the same origin because information is available through their social networks. The denser networks of migrants provide potential migrants with increasingly reliable information about the opportunities and challenges associated with the destination and about the migration process. The migrant network IV was defined as a leave-out mean ratio = ∑ �p where is the number of current migrants from household of jj KK jj jj migrant group type , and ZZii∑ kk=1kk≠ii ZZ is the sum of current migrants from all households of migrant group type kk,mm ppmm ZZkk,mm kk KK jj 1, 2, a from _taluk_ , excluding household kk=1 kk,mm where the respondent is from, and p is the population of _taluk_ . A similar jj= 1, 2, a aa 3 kk≠ii ZZ jj= leave-out ratio was created to account for the success and comfort of the emigrant, as the higher the number of returning migrants mm in an individual’s network, the higher the likelihood that individual will return home. This IV was defined as aa 3 mm ii pp =mm ∑ �p where is the number of returning migrants from household in migration group type jj , ii KK jj jj WW ∑kk=1kk≠ii WWkk,mm is the sum of returning migrants from all households of migration group type ppmm WWkk,mm kk from jj= 1, 2, a _taluk_ , excluding aa 3 KK jj household kk=1 kk,mm of the respondent, and p is the population of _taluk_ . The results were qualitatively similar and are available kk≠ii WW jj= 1, 2, a aa 3 mm upon request. mm ii pp mm

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