More specifically, the work is based on a randomized household survey experiment that was implemented in Malawi in 2013. The inspiration for the experiment was the discrepancy in the poverty trends based on competing Malawi National Statistical Office (NSO) products during the period of 2004/05-2010/11. Although the direct measurement of household consumption expenditures from the Second Integrated Household Survey (IHS2) and the Third Integrated Household Survey (IHS3) had produced a stagnant headcount poverty trend of 52 percent in 2004/05 and 51 percent in 2010/11, the Welfare Monitoring Survey (WMS)-based poverty predictions that were disseminated between the IHS2 and the IHS3 had implied a steep decline from 50 percent in 2005 to 39 percent in 2009. At conceptualization, the WMS had been designed to provide, among other indicators, poverty predictions on an annual basis in the interim years of the IHS, which is conducted approximately every 5 years. This objective was fulfilled between the IHS2 and the IHS3 by combining the parameters from a model of household consumption expenditures estimated using the IHS2 with the associated proxies obtained from the 20-page WMS questionnaire that was markedly lighter in inter- and intramodule scope of data collection than the IHS counterpart.<sup>8</sup> There are three key findings that emerge from the analysis. First, we find that observationally equivalent households as well as same households answer the same questions differently when interviewed with a short questionnaire versus its standard counterpart. Second, the analysis yields statistically significant differences in reporting across all topics and types of questions. The effect is quite pronounced for binary poverty proxies related to consumption of non-food and food consumption items, and experience of household shocks. The categorical variables, particularly those related to subjective welfare and housing, are also impacted by changes in questionnaire design. Third, relying on prediction models based on the national household survey data collected with the standard questionnaire in 2010, we find that the differences in reporting are sufficient to give poverty predictions that are significantly different from each other. While the resulting difference in predicted poverty estimates ranges from approximately 3 to 7 percentage points depending on the model specification, restricting the poverty proxies to the ones that do not differ by survey treatment, namely demographic variables from the household roster and location fixed effects, predicts same poverty rates in both samples. The findings emphasize the need for further methodological research on module/question placement effects and associated cognitive and behavioral processes, and support the view that light household survey operations designed for proxy-based poverty measurement should judiciously pilot their instruments prior to roll-out, in parallel with the questionnaire instruments from which they have evolved.

> telephone interviews, self-administered questionnaires mailed-in or completed online, etc) that we do not delve into. If survey mode differs between the light and standard household questionnaires used in a proxy-based poverty measurement exercise, the variation may affect the proxy measurement and the subsequent poverty predictions. 8 The information on the WMS is available on http://www.nsomalawi.mw/publications/welfare-monitoring-surveys- <u>wms.html.</u>

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