rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
13

# II. IMPORTS OF MANUFACTURES BY THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

9. import-dependency for primary commodities is (like for everything else) partly influenced by policies, like widespread agricultural protectionism, the domestic pricing of energy (low in the US, high in Europe and Japan), or subsidies (like those for coal in Germany). However, they are more closely determined by natural mineral wealth endowments and new discoveries, the availability of agricultural land and the suitability of climate, and similar factors not responsive to policies. The value and share of primary commodity imports are also heavily dependent on their fluctuating prices. Manufactures imports are much more responsive to trade policy. The examination of their evolution, in absolute value and in relation to various other indicators, reveals more about trade policies than that of primary commodity imports.

10. It is also more important. The share of primary commodity imports in total trade has long been falling. Trade in manufactures has been the most dynamic component of total trade. For developing countries, it has been the main engine of ascent to higher levels of productivity and incomes. And it is also against manufactures imports that trade barriers are supposed to have proliferated in the 1980s.

11. The European Community was absorbing three new members during the 1980s. The single European Act was adopted, and the expanded EC was gearing up for the introduction of the fully common market by 1992. It was presumably because of this that the term "Fortress Europe" was re-invented, and it was claimed that the EC, "driven by ... the fortress mentality promoted by Europe 1992, [has] become increasingly inward-looking"... **12.** 12. The reality of trade is in sharp contrast with these images. Manufactures imports into the EC rose by **_155_** percent during the decade. Intra-EC trade in manufactures, though given a vigorous impulsion by three new members, and later by the march towards the completion of the common market of 1993, nevertheless rose by only 139 percent. The difference, while small, is significant. Manufactures trade between EC member countries (like trade between Canadian provinces or Swiss Cantons) may not be completely free from discrimination, but it is free tariffs and quantitative restrictions, and there are mechanisms, actively used, to combat and eliminate informal and other residual internal trade restraints. If nevertheless manufactures imports increased faster than intra-EC trade, the level and efficacy of restraints on imports from the outside cannot have been very high. Strange "Fortress Europe", curious "inward-looking" behavior, that allows imports from the outside to grow faster than trade among members of the supposed Fortress!

13. Though the 1980s were a period of slow income growth, economic strains and protectionist pressures, the ratio of manufactures imports to EC GDP rose from 4.7% to 6.2%. Even more significant is the relationship of manufactures imports to manufactures production"3: it rose from "'World **Dank** Policy Research BuUetin, May-July 1992, p.<sup>3</sup>

**"** See Footnote I
regression technique. Standard errors are adjusted for the clustering process inherent in the sampling procedure of the PNAD surveys (Ferreira, Lanjouw, and Neri 1998). To minimize the likelihood of findings being affected by small sample biases, data for Brazil as a whole is used in the analysis. Given the way the regression model is specified, findings reveal when impacts for Bahia are different from impacts for Brazil as a whole.

The analysis of poverty correlates reveals a conditional correlation between poverty and characteristics of household heads and indicates groups that are particularly vulnerable. The probability of a household being poor is analyzed based on relevant individual and household characteristics. The main conclusion emerging from the analysis is that disparities in assets – education and labor – are indeed strongly correlated with poverty.

Other poverty studies for Brazil as a whole, such as Ferreira, Lanjouw, and Neri (1998), show that in 1996 education was the central personal attribute determining the likelihood that a household would experience poverty. Other factors such as age, family size, race, and rural living are also important in determining the likelihood of poverty. The findings on Brazil presented in this section are very much in line with those of Ferreira, Lanjouw, and Neri. A discussion of some of the variables explaining income poverty follows below.

Another study, Ferreira and Leite (2001), finds that broad based policies aimed at increasing educational attainment have substantial impacts on poverty reduction, but muted effects on inequality in Ceará.<sup>15</sup> Unfortunately, the authors did not undertake the analysis for other states in Brazil including Bahia. However, the findings would most likely be similar in Bahia to the findings for Ceará.

It is important to note the limitations of this analysis at the outset. First and foremost, the analysis does not capture the dynamic impact of certain causes of poverty over time. Most notably, the impact of changes in economic growth - most certainly a key determinant of poverty – cannot be assessed using this static, crosssection model. Second, the analysis is limited by the variables available at the household level from the 2001 PNAD. Other factors – such as social conditions like crime and violence, or physical conditions such as variations in climate or access to markets – could not be included due to a lack of data at this level. Finally, though theory holds that many of the variables included in the analysis do indeed contribute to (cause) poverty (or poverty reduction), the statistical relationships should be interpreted as correlates and not as determinants since causality can run both ways for some variables.

> 15  These findings are based on micro simulations.

42
Pollit, E., 1990, Malnutrition and Infection in the Classroom, UNESCO, Paris.

Radloff, L.S., 1977, “The CES-D Scale: A Self-Report Depression Scale for Research in the General Population”, _Applied Psychological Measurement_ 1(3), 385-401.

- Shonkoff, J. and D. Phillips, 2000, <u>From Neurons to Neighborhoods: The Science of Early Childhood Development, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.</u>

- Shore, R., 1997, Re-thinking the Brain: New Insights into Early Development, Families and Work Institute, New York.

- Sternberg, R., 1985, Beyond IQ: A Triarchic Theory of Human Intelligence, Cambridge University Press.

- Rivera, J. A., D. Sotres-Alvarez, J. P. Habicht, T. Shamah and S. Villalpando, 2004, “Impact of the Mexican program for education, health, and nutrition (Progresa) on rates of growth and anemia in infants and young children: a randomized effectiveness study”, _Journal of the American Medical Association_ 291(21), 2563-70.

- Tan, K., M. Singh, and E. Yap, 2002, “Recent Advances in Blastocystis Hominis Research: Hot Spots in Terra Incognita”, _International Journal of Parasitology_ 32, 187-804.

- Takeuchi, A., M. Cropper, and A. Bento, 2005, “The Welfare Effects of Slum Improvement Programs: The Case of Mumbai” (mimeo), Maryland.

- Thomson, H., M. Petticrew, and D. Morrison, 2001, “Health Effects on Housing Improvement: Systematic Review of Intervention Studies”, _British Medical Journal_ 321, 187-190.

- Umbel, V.M., B.Z. Pearson, M.C. Fernández, and D.K. Oller, 1992, “Measuring Bilingual Children’s Receptive Vocabularies”, _Child Development_ 63, 10121020.

World Bank, 2002, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

World Bank, 2005, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

27
Data reveal a strong correlation between poverty and educational attainment in the Northeast. The level of education of the extremely poor is the lowest, and it is also increasing more slowly than average. Average years of effective education of the total active population in Brazil increased by almost 2 years, from 4.5 years in 1981 to 6.4 years in 1999. In 1999, average years of effective education of the total population in Paraíba increased by 2.1 years, from 3.4 years in 1981 to 5.5 years in 1999 (Table 3.4). For the indigent poor—with per-capita family income below the indigence poverty line— it increased less, from 2.0 years in 1981 to only 3.1 years in 1999. This shows that school attainment of the poor is increasing fast, but the gap between the poor and nonpoor in school attainment is not closing.

The recent educational advances have included many poor children in the education system that did not earlier have access. However, educational exclusion increases at higher levels of the education system in Brazil, and more so in Paraiba. While many middle-class students continue to post-secondary education, it is still most unlikely that students from low-income families obtain this opportunity. In fact, the odds are that less than 15 percent of the children that started primary school, raised in families from the lowest 30 percent of the income distribution, will complete primary education, and only 4 percent of these will complete secondary education. The high repetion is the main impedement to expantion of education, access much less so.

**Table 3.5:** **<u>Promotion, Repetition and Evasion, 1999</u>**

||<br>|**Grade 1-4 **<br>||
|---|---|---|---|
||**Promotion**<br>**Rate**|**Repetition**<br>**rate**|**Evasion**<br>**Rate**|
|**Brazil**|73.6|21.6|4.8|
|**Northeast**|65.1|28.6|6.2|
|**Paraíba**|64.0|30.6|5.4|
|||**Grade 4-8 **||
||**Promotion**<br>**Rate**|**Repetition**<br>**rate**|**Evasion**<br>**rate**|
|**Brazil**|74.5|18.6|6.9|
|**Northeast**|73.7|19.9|6.4|
|**Paraíba**|74.8|19.8|5.4|

|_Source:_MEC/Inep/SEEC.|
|---|

**_Efficiency._** In 1999, at primary level, 30.6 percent of students repeated (compared to 21.6 percent nationally). Of the 4-8 graders 75 percent of the students were promoted, which is in line with Brazil as a whole. Twenty percent repeated and 5 percent left the school system altogether. Thus, the second part of primary school in Paraíba is not very different to Brazil as a whole. The low entry in secondary education is partly explained by the low completion rates of primary school. Finally, it is worth remembering that international experience shows that a student who repeats first grade is at great risk of further repetition and eventually of dropping-out of the school system altogether.

21
## —Insert Figure 1b—

Although debt relief has brought the debt of HIPCs to sustainable levels and allowed these countries to gain access to external financing, the evidence suggests that such countries remain somehow credit constrained (for instance vis-à-vis other IDA countries that, despite their higher debt ratios, could build a track record of creditworthiness). Furthermore, the new borrowing from private creditors to HIPC has come at high interest rates. The default risk premium that postMDRI countries have to pay on new debt can be measured by the spreads between the yields on the dollar bonds issued by Ghana and Senegal and the yield on US Treasuries of the same maturity. Figure 2a shows that the yield spread on the Ghana bond has remained above 4% while the spread on the Senegal bond has been even higher at 6.5%.

## —Insert Figure 2a—

Further evidence of the relative high interest rates at which post-MDRIs borrow comes from the GDF database. Figure 2b shows the simple mean for post-MDRI countries of the average interest rates that they pay on new public and publicly guaranteed debt from private creditors and from offi cial creditors.<sup>6</sup> While interest rates on concessional offi cial lending has remained below 2% over the whole period, interest rates on private lending has fluctuated around 4% reaching 6% in 2007 when new borrowing became available after the implementation of MDRI relief.<sup>7</sup> More importantly, there is no evidence that debt relief initiatives have brought about a reduction in the interest rate on new private debt despite the fall in debt levels.

## —Insert Figure 2b—

This brings us to the critical question of our paper: Would it have been possible to design the debt relief initiative so that markets could distinguish between good borrowers and bad ones and doing so would facilitate capital market access to the former (but not to the latter)? In order to shed some light on such an important question, and provide some thoughts on how to design future debt relief initiatives, in the remaining of the paper we sketch a simple model that could help us to better understand the incentive problems associated with debt relief versus other more traditional forms of assistance.

# 4 An Asymmetric Information Model of Debt Relief, Aid and Private Lending

In this paper, we extend Sachs (1988) classical debt overhang model introducing uncertainty about (debtor) governments’ time preferences and thus their willingness to invest. More precisely, we

> 6 Country data on interest rates are weighted averages of the interest rates on new debt commitments taken from the GDF database.

> 7 Evidence of higher borrowing costs would emerge from excluding bank credit covered by guarantees of exportcredit agencies.

5
correlation between the misreporting of intercropping adoption and total landholdings was detected for female farmers.

The strongest correlates of misreporting were exposure to training and the recall period. For men and women, exposure to training lowers the incidence of knowledge misreports and increases adoption misreports. Duration of recall periods, however, dierentially inuences the false reporting of men and women. The inaccuracy of self-reported mulching knowledge increases with the time in which male farmers rst learned the technique. In contrast, female farmers gave more precise strip tillage and intercropping knowledge measures when they learned the technique over twenty years ago but not a single year before. This suggests that the negative eects of recall bias dominate for men, while the positive impact of long-term experience is more prominent for women. Duration of recall periods had almost no eect on the accuracy of adoption measures.

Our ndings support the use of knowledge exams in surveys, as they are a relatively inexpensive way to improve the collection of farmer knowledge data. Given the additional expense of conducting individual interviews and visiting multiple plots per household to measure adoption, one might focus on the objective measurement for a subsample of individuals particularly in regions where farm size is heterogeneous in acreage or geographic scope. Given the importance of plot size accuracy in constructing key indicators (Kilic et al., 2013), there will be increasing returns to the collection of other important outcomes, like adoption, with the standardization of plot measurement in surveys.

# References

- [1] Baker, M., M. Stabile, and C. Deri (2004). What Do Self-Reported, Objective, Measures of Health Measure?, The Journal of Human Resources 39(4), 1067-1093.

- [2] Beegle, K., C. Carletto, K. Himelein (2012). Reliability of Recall in Agricultural Data, Journal of Development Economics 98, 34-41.

- [3] Butler, J., R. Burkhauser, J. Mitchell, and T. Pincus (1987). Measurement Error in SelfReported Health Variables, Review of Economics and Statistics 69, 644-650.

15
highly concentrated markets: the U.S. Department of Commerce defines all values between 1,000 and 1,800 as moderately concentrated, and at 1,800 or above as highly concentrated.

|**Table 23:**<br>**Country**|**Annual Seat Cap**<br>**Dom**<br>|**acity and Num**<br>**estic**<br>|**ber of Carriers i**<br>**Intra-Re**<br>|**n the Caribbe**<br>**gional**<br>|**an**<br>**Extra-R**<br>|**egional**<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**Seats 2013**|**Carriers**|**Seats 2013**|**Carriers**|**Seats 2013**|**Carriers**|
|||**Small Island**|**States**<br>||||
|Antigua and Barbuda|none||135,538|3|649,402|17|
|Dominica|none||78,481|1|64,259|5|
|Grenada|none||174,226|4|132,548|6|
|St. Kitts and Nevis|none||26,520|1|260,286|12|
|St. Lucia|none||152,217|4|677,521|14|
|St. Vincent and the Grenadines|none||122,642|1|||
|||**Hub Count**|**ries**||||
|Bahamas, The|1,503,918|3|19,032|2|3,515,369|20|
|Barbados|none||409,279|3|1,280,344|13|
|Dominican Republic|none||26,273|4|10,473,723|47|
|Jamaica|156,442|2|68,315|5|4,963,829|31|
|Trinidad and Tobago|966,732|1|713,882|5|1,329,861|11|
|<br>|<br>**C**|**ontinental Ca**|<br>**ribbean**||||
|Belize|379,223|2|||709,787|9|
|Guyana|none||340,561|4|94,562|4|
|Suriname|none||86,996|2|440,869|4|
|||**Fragile Carib**|<br>**bean**||||
|Haiti|35,321|2|3,432|2|1,312,636|14|

_Source: Authors’ calculations on data provided by Diio (2014)._ 56
data sets, and exploring exciting institutional options as the apply in and across many different geographic locations at a global, regional, national and city level.

In conclusion, it may help highlight some commonalities among the very diverse research areas on which each author conducted the scoping exercise. These areas of common interest emerge:

- All authors focused their recommendations on issues of relevance to the practitioners’ audience, rather than to an academic audience. This is important, since there is a great gap between academic research and practical application in the area of urban development. As a result many of the key findings of academic research have not found their way into practical application (e.g., the market oriented regulation of land and housing markets, the principle of subsidiarity, etc.).

- Related to the first commonality is a second one: All authors stressed the need to focus on specific country and city contexts and on the specifics of the interventions, rather than pursuing general theories and testing them against cross‐country data sets. Still, all probably would subscribe to Alm’s statement, which stands somewhat in contrast of what otherwise is his pessimistic attitude towards the relevance of theory: “This does not mean, I believe, that our theories‐‐‐in this domain and elsewhere—are not useful: they provide a necessary framework in which we can think about these issues, and they often allow us to identify specific policies that are clearly inconsistent with our theories and whose implementation would clearly lead to inefficiencies and inequities. However, practical implementation requires that we also incorporate the specifics of any country’s institutional structure in devising and implementing specific policies.” (Alm, 2010, p. 38)

- All authors called for improvements in data: data on urban assets, regulatory practices, urban finances, the capacities of urban institutions, or the nature of aid activities.

- They further stressed the need for a better understanding of the role that institutions play and of the political economy of urban development. One of the problems here is that the instruments of policy‐relevant and implementation‐oriented institutional and political analysis as applied to urbanization issues do not appear to be well developed. Much exploratory research will be needed to help develop the relevant tools.

- Various authors noted the importance of the quality of urban management and the need to explore ways to develop stronger management capacities.

- All authors noted the importance of civil society and community engagement and hence the need to learn more about the capacities and potential roles of CSOs and CBOs, and about how to integrate them into effective partnerships with other key players.

- And various authors commented on the need to scale up successful interventions in the urban area, rather than just moving from one innovative pilot to the next.

25
average for this region, only 5% of the rural population in the region gets water piped to the premises. It is also estimated that more than a quarter of the population in several countries in the region uses more than 30 minutes to make one water collection round trip (WHOUNICEF, 2010).<sup>2</sup> We base our data on four rounds of Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) for Ghana, which provide information on access to water infrastructure along with socio-demographic data for a large number of households. We use spatial identification through GPS coordinates to build a panel of 405 clusters/communities followed over four periods of time: 1993-94, 1998-99, 2003, and 2008. We use panel data techniques for fractional dependent variables to estimate the impact of time to haul water on girls’ school attendance. Our findings indicate that reducing by half the time to haul water would increase the proportion of girls aged 5-15 who attend school by 2.4 percentage points on average, with stronger impacts in rural than in urban communities.

In Section 2 we discuss related work where the impact of infrastructure on children’s school enrollment or work activities is measured. We describe the model and empirical strategy in Section 3. In Section 4 we present the data along with descriptive statistics for main variables of interest. Estimation methodology and results are discussed in Sections 5 and 6, respectively. Section 7 concludes.

# **2. Related literature**

The role of infrastructure in development, and in particular for school attendance and educational achievement, has been the focus of a number of studies. A recent paper, closely related to ours, is by Koolwal and van de Walle (2013; forthcoming). These authors investigate the relationship between the time to walk one-way to the source of drinking water, participation in income earning market-based activities, and children’s school attendance and health (as measured by anthropometric indices of growth status). Their empirical study uses cross-sectional surveys from Sub-Saharan Africa (Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, and Uganda), South Asia (India, Nepal, Pakistan), North Africa (Morocco), and the Middle East (Yemen). They find evidence that both boys’ and girls’ school enrollment is higher when access to water is better. More specifically, a one hour reduction in the time spent to walk to the water source increases girls’ school enrollment rates by about 10 percentage points in

> 2 In such situations, the quantity of water collected is often below five litres per capita per day (l/c/d) which implies that consumption requirements are likely not to be fulfilled and hygiene is not possible (unless it is practised at the source), Howard and Bartram (2003).

3