<!-- Start of picture text --> hide<br>Table «+. Nigena: Pubbc Sector Debt Sustanabdity Framework 2001-2011<br>{In percent of GDP, undess otherwise medicated)<br>Acteal —— Preis<br>Debt stabilizing<br>1. Baseline Projections primary<br>balamee 11<br>1 Public sector debt 1/ #0 6 327 Ma? 22 235 Als 588 152 20 1075 MS<br>olw foreign-curency denominated (nef) 2/ “8 #3 aI 9 19 90 532 654 4 29 09<br>ofw domestic debt (net) 32 uz 96 12 36 135 ue 66 02 ot 166<br>2 Change m pubbe sector debt 42 146 a9 130 wo 32 1738 7s 164 163 4 oo<br>34 Identified debt-creatingflows (49748416) 1s 33 tld 79 190 22 178 ATS 64 168 184 oo<br>3 Nos-oil primary deficit Bo 179 83 15 191 179 184 wa 75 17 185 Ms<br>6 — PrimaryRevenue(noninterest) and grants expenditure 696 w2ry m4a1 26S0 23766 238red 9a4 m190 m196 ams98 109Bs<br>Od revermue at referep n eece -25t mt ms 190 184 99 193 188 192 93 183 188<br>7 Seignorage 24 42 2 OA 42 07 06 05 05 OA oA 04<br>&9 Automaticdebs dynamaes: AT a9 58 34 59 Os a4 28 a u o7 03<br>10 — ContnlbulsonOf which conteibution from uterest rate/growthfrom real interest differentialrete 037 27ced a919 a9tu 12o4 OL00 a412 oo)a 33or 33oo 1032 183<br>" Contrbutson from domestic real mterest rate 4 oo or oo Ot 43 os wu 10 06 oo a0 18<br>a24 OfContributionwhich contributionfrom real fromnnterest rate real GDP growth on fortign debt 5/ a47 a7as 591s 30au 22os 03ol ou12 00a oo27 ooMu“ oo42 oo49<br>15 Contnbulson from real exchange rale depreciation 7/ 20 10 1s 33 al o4 or 04 13 23 26 23<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Net edlow w: the od stetakration fland oo oo 12 us 133 184 1738 168 4? “41 34 34<br>is Contabution from real uiterest rate on od aseete S/ 06 ao 05 03 0A 7 10 Ad 6 ao 20 22<br>19 Other identified debt-creating flows 16 43 00 00 00 oo 00 00 oo oo 00 oo<br>i) Prvatcation recespts (negalsve) 16 43 oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo oo<br>2 Recognition of impbest or contingent bebuities oo 00 00 oo 00 oo 00 oo oo oo 00 oo<br>22 Other (apeeily, og bank reeapetakeation) oo oo oo oo oo oo oo 00 oo oo oo oo<br>23 Residual inchiding aeet changes (2-3) 63 178 33 OL 479 oo 00 00 00 oo 00 00<br>PubhePromarysectordeficitdebt-toreversuethet stabdites theratzo I/debt-to-GDP ratio 473reo wT33 5165wl BieMS 3961 B58wt a23 6511M6 786Bd PGMS 1076.7340<br>Required defied redaction: a4 us 13 100 @3 133 v4 Bs 68 7m ta<br>IMF WEO oll price USS/ObE 243 230 29 3 34248 M5 BS 73 49 4A wt<br>Ou Reference Prices for Frscal Rule USSObL a3 20 mo 20 wow 330 no no m6 32 ug<br>Ou stabdization fund net inflow, % of OOP oo 00 12 nz 1338 134 78 168 47 M41 134<br>Od staknktation fund net assets aa 79 Mr Bs Bsa ae 73 oa ma cal 95<br>Nom Od Primary Deficit, % of Now Ol GDP 42 2 Ba A aan 3h BS 350 330 335 Ss<br>Gross Public Debt (In billions of US dollars) Bs “5 a1 #2 748 4 179 ws 73 73 175<br>(in percent of GDP) 213 x79 43 oy nos 163 4 143 137 131 130<br>Gross financing need 9/ nA a7 2337 252 Me 3s aS “7 62 m2 ms<br>in billions of US, doles 145 4 148 180 243 10-You 10-Year Ms 22 66 "3 1019 124<br>Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Asswmptons HatonealAverage _ Deviation,Staredand aeiiznionFor debt __Averege__Propected<br>Real OU GDP growth (in percent) is St ia 45 $s Sh $a 3A 40 40 40<br>Read Non-OdGDP growth<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Average nomind wierest rate on pudlic debt (in percent) 10/ oo 00 00 oo 00 oo 00 13352624 146 146 146 146 146 146 2225559<br>AverageAverage nomena witerest rate on pubbe domestic debt (m percent)11/ 72 43 146 m2 133 mm 146 146 46 146 146<br>Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) L1/ $6 57 $4 43 44 46 au 19 AL 37 32 26 22 22 28<br>Average nominal interest rate on NFA (in percent) 12/ 36 57 j4 4g 44 50 50 50 50 30 50<br>Average real mterest rate (including exchange rate revabastion on foreign currency denomi A? 12 06 Jt 123 AG 72 25 32 19 os 109 uo sé mM<br>Average real interest rate on public domestic debt (nominal rate minus change in CPI, in pe os 3 os Os 33 on 96 36 82 92 o4 ne us 94<br>Change inreal the rt e alrest exchange rate on forexrate (Local debt (nomacurre n alcy raeper US manusdoar)change 1/ wn CPI, wn percent) 4627 2542 39a 42 15916 25 20 “aoa4 a216 ov12 or20 oz32 0332 a3<br>InflationNondnal appreciationGncrease in US doDar value of local currency, in percent) 37 34 66 25 23 39 43 34 33 35 33 35 33 35 .<br>‘US Inflationreterate (in percent)(in percent) 13022 13716 14023 15027 192a7 ial 69 us24 6s25 35a3 a223 3025 30a5 30 56<br>Growth of real pamary spending (deflated by GOP deflator, in percent) 310 “22 143 69 106 157 ne 29 73 02 6? 73 69 $2<br>Base Money (percent ofGOP) wt ws 94 6 39 a7 19 37 36 36 36 36 38 Debt-stabilizing<br>A. Alternative Scenarios TL Stress Tests for Public Debt Ratio bakameeprimary17/<br>Al Key vanables are of then tastoncal averages mi 20519 1a 24 261 BS 497 598 os 6D<br>A2. No pobry change (constant primary balence) in 2005-09 35 22126 196879 191640 19436 198761 3133<br>A3. Country-specific shock in 2005, with reduction in GDP growth (relative to baselines) of one standard deviation 15/ 166 MB 402 oo 813 wD 16<br>AA Selected variables art consistent with market forecast in 2005.09 Ma 35D S35 794 1062 1365 Ms<br>B. Bound Tests<br>Bi. Realinterest rete is at historical average plas two standard deviations in 2005 and 2006 M9 378 S70 792 1048 1332 1<br>B2. Real ODP growth is at histoncal average minus two standard deviations in 2005 and 2006 169 406 635 890 18. 1498 M3<br>BS.BA Primary balanceis at historical average manus two standard deviations in 2005 and 2006 37 539 76.7 1027 ino 1644 62<br>BS Combunaton of 2.4 urng one standard deviation shocks m0 455 ORS war Imo 1565 62<br>BS. One10 percent time 3) percentof ODP increasereal depeecsationin other debt-creating in 2005 t6/ flows in 205 MoD97 444ap 43164 783860 ora1108 1389str 6Dm1<br><!-- End of picture text -->