0.62 and 0.44 times the number of operations in the 120-500 and >500 ha groups, respectively. Panel B illustrates that the farms covered by Form 29 and SAR cultivate 27.85 million and 11.6 million hectares, respectively. The total area registered in SAR amounts to 42% of the area in Form 29 at the national level and 150%, 127%, 67%, and 37% in the <50, 50-120, 120-500, and >500 ha groups, respectively.<sup>17</sup> To quantify the extent of informality in Ukraine’s agriculture sector, we use crop maps to identify the total area cultivated with crops in 2020, before the war, and then compare this area to what is covered by the available statistics (Form 29) and the SAR.<sup>18</sup> In appendix table A6, panel C shows that, based on these maps, Ukraine’s total cultivated area amounted to 45.73 million ha whereas panel B illustrates that, with 27.8 million ha, SSSU’s Form 29 thus covers 61% of the country’s cultivated area in 2020, leaving an estimated 39% of cultivated area not covered by official statistics.

Using enterprise IDs to match farms between the SAR and Form 29 suggests that 7.5 million ha are cultivated by farms included in both the SAR and Form 29, while 3.36 million ha are registered in the SAR only. This suggests that in the three-month period from August 12 to October 15, 2022, registration in the SAR reduced the amount of land cultivated informally by 3.36 million ha, or about 7% of the total. Still, 14.5 million ha, more than the total agricultural area of Poland or Germany, are cultivated by farmers that are neither part of the SSSU’s sample frame nor registered in the SAR, implying that their land is not reflected in any official statistics.

<mark>The follow-up survey was conducted one year after the baseline survey by the same survey firm, with a response rate of 54%. Two-thirds of the nonresponses were due to inability to reach the relevant contact, in most cases because phone lines were unreachable or disconnected or the enterprise had gone out of business. One-third was refusals.</mark> To understand the determinants of attrition between the two survey rounds, we estimate a probit model with <mark>baseline covariates. Appendix table A7 presents the estimated marginal effects. The likelihood of attrition among PSG beneficiaries (-10%), applicants to other programs (-18%), those hoping to access credit (-7%), or FOPs (-12%) is much lower than for the rest of the sample. Respondent status (owner versus manager), perceived personal situation, experience of direct war damages, and region did not affect response rates, and larger farms were significantly less likely to respond.</mark> Removing technical, financial, or market constraints to diversification in areas not directly affected by the conflict would thus be a high priority for support to complement and, while active fighting continues, even precede activities such as demining that aim to restore the productive capacity of areas directly affected by the conflict.

> 17 As a plausibility check, we compare mean farm sizes between Form 29 and the SAR. For the above 50 ha group, average farm size in the SAR is 803 ha compared to 934 and 999 ha for areas controlled by Ukraine (ACUs) and areas affected by conflict (AACs), respectively. In Form 29, the corresponding figures for farms greater than 500 ha are 2,834, 2,255, and 2,137 ha, respectively, for the SAR and Form 29 in ACUs and AACs. 18 As area cultivated in 2022 is likely to have been affected by the conflict and to avoid bias that might arise from the fact that 2021 was an exceptional year with very favorable growing conditions, we use both satellite imagery and Form 29 data from 2020. Area cultivated excludes forest, bare land, wetlands, water, and areas with artificial (built up) cover.

17