_COTE D’IVOIRE: Growth, Specialization and the Terms of Trade_ to military and other sensitive areas,<sup>7</sup> under the campaign to fight “the infiltration of the rebels.” As a result, by end-2002 poverty rate likely increased by an estimated 4 percentage points to about 42 1⁄2 percent of the population; with further increase in displaced/refugee population, it is likely to have increased by an additional 1 1⁄2 percentage points in early 2003 (Table 3). In rural areas, poverty rose because of the loss of farmers’ crop incomes; in urban areas, unemployment and poverty rose due to closures of a number of large companies (e.g., SITARAIL for example at the beginning of the crisis; but the rail line was later reopened following an agreement on reopening of the border between Burkina Faso and Cote d’Ivoire) and dwindling activity in industry (e.g., textiles), transport and domestic trade.

**Table 3: Côte d’Ivoire - The Social Impact of the Côte d'Ivoire Crisis, 2002-03**

||**1995**|**2002**<br>**Pre-crisis**|**Post-crisis**||**2003**<br>**Pre-cris**|**is Post-cri**|**sis**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||(annual perce<br>|nt changes; unle<br>|ss othe|rwise indic<br>|ated)<br>||
|GDP|7.1|3.0|-1.8||4.0|-3.0||
|GDP per capita|3.2|-0.3|-4.5||0.7|-6.3||
|Inflation (Annual average)|14.1|3.0|3.9||2.5|4.0||
|Poverty rate (percent of the population)|36.8|38.4|42.5|1/|39.5|44.0|1/|
|Gini coefficient|0.37|0.37|0.40|2/|0.37|0.44|2/|
|Human development index||||||||
|Rank among 173 countries|145|161|164|3/|164|165|3/|
|Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and<br>refugees(millions)|<br>...|0|1.0|4/|0|1.2|4/|

_Source_ : IMF (growth, inflation); World Bank (social indicators); U.N. (human development index). 1/ Poverty rate for 2002 was reported in the results of the NSI 2002 household survey _Profile de Pauvrete en Côte d’Ivoire en 2002_ (page 8). For 2003, it was calculated based on the past elasticity of poverty rate with respect to per capita growth and the additional poor attributable to the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and refugees to neighboring countries.

2/ Gini coefficients for 2002-03 were calculated as linear extrapolation based on changes in poverty rates. 3/ The rank of the HDI for pre-crisis 2002 relates to 2001; ranks for post-crisis 2002, and 2003 were extrapolated based on the changes in the real GDP per capita and the additional, estimated impact of the 2002-03 crisis on the number of internally displaced people and the refugees.

4/ Based on the data of U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

**The adverse regional impact on the poor––mostly in rural areas–– has varied from moderate in the south and south-east to severe in the north and, particularly, the west** .<sup>8</sup> In the south and south-east, where farming was least affected by the conflict, cocoa farmers also benefited from higher cocoa prices and the successful exports of most of their production. Coffee producers, particularly in the west, have suffered from low international prices, inability to collect their entire crop because of the lack of security,

> 7 A relocation operation of these displaced persons has been formulated through the World Bank supported PACOM project.

> 8 These preliminary assessments are based on the estimated impact on farmers' income from main crops and the impact on displacement of farm labor, using past households surveys and existing monitoring systems.

8