(Victora, Adair, Fall, et al., 2008). In other words, these inequalities tend to persist and even worsen over time. Third, inequalities experienced in early childhood play a crucial role in the intergenerational transmission of poverty and inequality (Case, Lubotsky, & Paxson, 2002; Currie & Moretti, 2007).

The data used to evaluate the impact of the INDH on economic outcomes and on ECD come from three impact evaluation surveys (2008, 2011, and 2013) carried out by the Moroccan National Human Development Observatory ( _Observatoire National du Développement Humain_ , ONDH). The surveys provide panel data for households in rural communities just above and below the cutoff for inclusion in the INDH. For this reason, this analysis makes it possible for us to examine the levels of and gaps in development within a dynamic framework, in terms of economic development and ECD in these rural areas.

The analysis begins with an evaluation of the impact of the INDH on income, expenditure, and the assets of households for the various communes studied. Previous work evaluating the INDH program’s impact on economic and human development using the first two rounds of the survey suggested substantial impacts (Observatoire National du Developpement Humain, 2012), and we update those findings adding the 2013 data. Subsequently, indicators for child health, nutrition, and early childhood education are examined. Since the impact evaluation surveys conducted by the ONDH allow us to do so (they are in fact designed for this purpose), we use a method known as Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD or simply RD) to identify program impact. We also exploit the panel data to estimate fixed effects models.

We begin the paper with a discussion of the general framework for the INDH and its operations, especially in terms of ECD. Next, we describe the ONDH surveys that we have used in this study. Before presenting the results of the various analyses, we discuss the econometric methods used to estimate the impact of the INDH. The findings are then presented in detail. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for CDD policy and enhancing ECD.

# **_2 Background: National Human Development Initiative_**

The intention of the INDH is to combat poverty, decrease inequality, and improve levels of human development for Morocco under an approach based on good local governance (World Bank, 2012a). His Majesty the King of Morocco in a speech delivered on May 18, 2005, officially launched the INDH. The primary INDH program was launched in September 2005. The first phase of the program covered 2005–2010. The INDH was designed to be implemented across the country based on a platform comprising four programs. The element of the program we evaluate was designed to combat poverty in rural areas. It covers 403 rural communes where the poverty rate, as estimated in the 2004 poverty map, is greater than or equal to 30 percent. The second phase of the program (2011–2015) was officially launched on June 4, 2011 (World Bank, 2012a) and targeted additional areas.

# _2.1 Budget and Activities_

The INDH projects and activities were initially funded by DH 14 billion for Phase I (US$1.7 billion). Phase I included approximately 700 local participatory plans, 22,000 activities, and 5.2 million beneficiaries. The second phase will invest an additional DH 17.1 billion (US$2.1 billion) and additional phases are expected in the future. This makes the program a major countrywide initiative of substantial importance toward the development of Morocco (World Bank, 2012a).

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