If climate change is expected to significantly reduce farmers’ profits, and if they are unable to substitute and produce another agricultural product, they will have strong incentives to move to cities—accelerating urbanization.<sup>48</sup> As millions of farmers urbanize, they are likely to be poor and to live in the riskiest, cheapest parts of the city. Their arrival will increase urban density, raise rental prices in slums, and reduce wages for incumbents. The net effects include fewer consumption opportunities for the incumbent poor, more heavily taxed basic services, and greater risk of infectious disease. Such migration will also lower the incomes of the incumbent poor, leaving them with fewer resources to cope with climate shocks.

# **_Policy suggestions_**

In nations with few cities, migration within a metropolitan area offers one strategy for protecting the population. While migrating within a city is unlikely to reduce extreme heat exposure, World Bank researchers have emphasized the importance of reducing the number of people living in areas at high risk of natural disasters. Lall and Deichman (2010) argue that zoning enforcement must attempt to prevent settlement of the most risky areas. This is not easy. Informal settlements can spring up overnight and, once established, are difficult to relocate. Tools like Google Earth can be used regularly to see if informal communities are reemerging in risky areas.

Government zoning can reduce the number of people living in areas whose locations and attributes put them at significant risk. Whether zoning is enforced depends on the government’s resources. If safer areas of the city can be identified, encouraging greater density in such areas would promote adaptation.

If informal area residents are given formal title to the land they occupy, households will have stronger incentives to invest in their communities and their property.<sup>49</sup> In return for receiving formal title, such communities would become part of the city’s jurisdiction and be offered such basic services as water and electricity—but they would be expected to pay for the services, as well as property taxes. Whether informal residents would consider this a good deal remains an open question. Government officials could conduct small pilot studies to see how sweet an offer must be to encourage informal communities to integrate into the city.

Access to electricity is an important adaptation step, because it allows urban households to cool themselves and refrigerate perishable goods. It also reduces mortality risks associated with heat waves.<sup>50</sup> And it raises the poor’s quality of life.<sup>51</sup> Flexible electricity pricing can mitigate future climate change impacts. On extremely hot days, demand for power will soar. If cities do not implement peak-time pricing, there will likely be broad blackouts. U.S research has documented that both the residential and commercial sectors respond to announcements of higher electricity prices by reducing consumption.<sup>52</sup> If consumers respond to higher prices by reducing consumption, developing cities will need to build fewer power plants to cope with rising electricity demand and can instead rely on dynamic pricing. The