tertiary levels (Oleyere 2015). Completion rates adjusted for the quality of learning outcomes in Africa are some of the lowest in the world—for example, just 10 percent of lower secondary students in SSA achieve a minimum proficiency level in mathematics (UNESCO 2019). Priorities vary depending on country circumstances, but they center on investing in effective teaching, ensuring access to quality education for the poor, and closing gender gaps (World Bank 2017g).

Investment in health and education is especially urgent considering the scale of learning losses during the pandemic. School closures due to COVID-19 social restrictions are likely to have a significant negative impact on long-term educational attainment across the region, as well as the earning and employment prospects of new labor market entrants. For example, in the aftermath of the 2015 Ebola outbreak, almost a fifth of girls in Sierra Leone never re-enrolled in schools (Bandiera, Buehren, Goldstein, et al. 2020). One estimate suggests that a loss of one year of schooling because of COVID-19 school closures translates into as much as three years of learning losses in the long term (Angrist et al. 2021).

Major health indicators show SSA is lagging. Average life expectancy in the region was 62 years in 2020—well below the average of over 70 years in other EMDE regions. SSA is disproportionally affected by the impact of infectious diseases. Building strong health systems, as well as setting up regional coordination mechanisms (to improve prevention, preparedness, and response to future pandemics), is critical for providing adequate health services.

Achieving the education and health improvements envisaged in the scenario analysis— that is, a rise in secondary school completion rates by 3.7 percentage points, tertiary completion rates by 0.4 percentage point, and life expectancy by 3 years—would raise potential growth by around 0.2 percentage point a year during 2020s.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also widened gender inequalities in SSA because women were employed disproportionately in the hardest-hit sectors, notably the informal economy. At about 64 percent, the labor force participation rate for women in SSA remains well below the 74 percent rate for men, indicating significant scope for increasing the number of women in the workforce. Raising female labor force participation in SSA is complicated by the prevalence of unpaid female labor, lack of affordable childcare, as well as by gaps in educational attainment and restrictions in women’s access to credit and rights to own and control assets (Seguino and Were 2015).

These challenges point to the need for policy and institutional frameworks to increase female labor force participation and promote female entrepreneurship. Reforms that remove obstacles to ownership rights, promote equal access to financial services, and expand the availability of childcare are critical for women’s empowerment and gender equality (World Bank 2022o). If the female labor force participation rate increases by 2.5 percentage points, as assumed in the scenario analysis, it would raise potential growth in the region by around 0.2 percentage point a year in the 2020s.