**Table 3:** Association of changes in market access on changes in outcome variables using a long difference, OLS results [Kebeles]

||NT|L|Urb|an|Crop|land|NT|L|Urba|n|Crop|land|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|(10)|(11)|(12)|
|MA|_−_0_._04<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._003<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._004<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._003|0_._002|_−_0_._04<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._004<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._002|0_._001|
||(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._002)|(0_._002)|(0_._002)|(0_._002)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._003)|(0_._002)|(0_._003)|(0_._004)|
|MA_×NTL_96 Low||0_._04<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||_−_0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._004||0_._05<sup>_∗∗_</sup>||_−_0_._01<sup>_∗∗_</sup>||0_._002|
|||(0_._01)||(0_._003)||(0_._003)||(0_._02)||(0_._004)||(0_._004)|
|MA_×NTL_96 Med||0_._07<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||_−_0_._003||_−_0_._001||0_._08<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||_−_0_._002||0_._002|
|||(0_._01)||(0_._004)||(0_._004)||(0_._02)||(0_._01)||(0_._004)|
|MA_×NTL_96 High||0_._15<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._02||0_._01||0_._16<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._04||0_._01|
|||(0_._02)||(0_._02)||(0_._01)||(0_._03)||(0_._03)||(0_._01)|
|MA, 1996|0_._03<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._03<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._002<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._002<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._07<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._06<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._004<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._004<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|
||(0_._003)|(0_._003)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._002)|(0_._002)|
|Log mean light, 1996|_−_0_._01|_−_0_._16<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._45<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._43<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._02|_−_0_._14<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._46<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._42<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._06<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|
||(0_._05)|(0_._05)|(0_._12)|(0_._13)|(0_._02)|(0_._03)|(0_._05)|(0_._05)|(0_._12)|(0_._13)|(0_._02)|(0_._03)|
|Pre-trend: log mean light|0_._06|0_._13<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._15|0_._17|_−_0_._001|0_._01|0_._08|0_._16<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._16|0_._19|_−_0_._002|0_._01|
||(0_._08)|(0_._08)|(0_._15)|(0_._15)|(0_._03)|(0_._03)|(0_._08)|(0_._08)|(0_._15)|(0_._16)|(0_._03)|(0_._03)|
|Pre-trend: log N urban pixels|0_._34<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._34<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._56<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._56<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._04|_−_0_._04|0_._35<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._35<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._57<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._57<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._04|_−_0_._04|
||(0_._13)|(0_._13)|(0_._22)|(0_._21)|(0_._12)|(0_._12)|(0_._14)|(0_._13)|(0_._21)|(0_._21)|(0_._12)|(0_._12)|
|Model<br>|_OLS_<br>|_OLS_<br>|_OLS_<br>|_OLS_<br>|_OLS_|_OLS_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|
|Observations<br>|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|
|Adjusted R<sup>2</sup>|0.18|0.19|0.22|0.23|0.14|0.14|0.17|0.18|0.22|0.22|0.14|0.14|

The unit of analysis is Kebeles. Standard errors are clustered on Woredas and all models include Zone fixed effects. MA is the logged difference of MA from 1996 to 2016. IV indicates that MA is instrumented with a 50km MA Doughnut variable; that is, in calculating market access, Kebeles within 50km are excluded. _NTL_ 96 Low, Medium, and High are dummy variables for different groups of baseline nighttime lights; groups are formed using 3-quantiles of the maximum value of nighttime lights within Woredas that had some positive nighttime lights. The excluded group is Woredas where the maximum value of nighttime lights at baseline was 0. NTL is the average nighttime lights within Kebeles, Urban is the total urban area within Kebeles, and Cropland is the total cropland area within Kebeles; we use the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation on all outcome variables, which has a similar interpretation as logs.<sup>_∗_</sup> p _<_ 0.1;<sup>_∗∗_</sup> p _<_ 0.05;<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup> p _<_ 0 _._ 01

**Table 4:** Association of changes in market access on changes in outcome variables using a long difference, OLS results [Woredas]

||NT|L|Urb|an|Cropl|and|NT|L|Ur|ban|Cropl|and|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|(10)|(11)|(12)|
|MA|_−_0_._01|_−_0_._03|_−_0_._02|_−_0_._03<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._004|_−_0_._004|_−_0_._05|_−_0_._07|0_._03|0_._01|_−_0_._002|_−_0_._003|
||(0_._02)|(0_._02)|(0_._01)|(0_._02)|(0_._004)|(0_._004)|(0_._04)|(0_._04)|(0_._03)|(0_._03)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|
|MA_×NTL_96 Low||0_._06<sup>_∗∗_</sup>||0_._002||_−_0_._002||0_._12<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._04<sup>_∗_</sup>||0_._003|
|||(0_._03)||(0_._02)||(0_._004)||(0_._04)||(0_._02)||(0_._01)|
|MA_×NTL_96 Med||0_._13<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._04||0_._001||0_._20<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._12<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._01<sup>_∗_</sup>|
|||(0_._03)||(0_._03)||(0_._005)||(0_._05)||(0_._03)||(0_._01)|
|MA_×NTL_96 High||0_._20<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._20<sup>_∗_</sup>||0_._02||0_._32<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._40<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._05<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|
|||(0_._04)||(0_._11)||(0_._01)||(0_._06)||(0_._11)||(0_._02)|
|MA, 1996|0_._02<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|<sup>_∗_</sup><br>0_._001|0_._001|0_._04<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._02|0_._01|_−_0_._01|_−_0_._001|_−_0_._003|
||(0_._004)|(0_._01)|(0_._003)|(0_._002)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._002)|(0_._003)|
|Log mean light, 1996|_−_0_._15<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._29<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._29|0_._15|_−_0_._12|_−_0_._13|_−_0_._11|_−_0_._35<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._32<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._03|_−_0_._11|_−_0_._15|
||(0_._08)|(0_._07)|(0_._19)|(0_._16)|(0_._10)|(0_._10)|(0_._07)|(0_._09)|(0_._19)|(0_._19)|(0_._10)|(0_._11)|
|Pre-trend: log mean light|0_._11|0_._10|_−_0_._20|_−_0_._19|0_._12|0_._13|0_._11|0_._08<br>|_−_0_._20|_−_0_._18|0_._13|0_._13<sup>_∗_</sup>|
||(0_._13)|(0_._11)|(0_._23)|(0_._21)|(0_._08)|(0_._08)|(0_._13)|(0_._10)|(0_._23)|(0_._21)|(0_._08)|(0_._08)|
|Pre-trend: log N urban pixels|_−_0_._24<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._22<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._33<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._34<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._26<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._23<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._36<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._40<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._04<sup>_∗_</sup>|
||(0_._10)|(0_._10)|(0_._19)|(0_._20)|(0_._02)|(0_._02)|(0_._10)|(0_._10)|(0_._21)|(0_._23)|(0_._02)|(0_._02)|
|Model<br>|_OLS_|_OLS_<br>|_OLS_|_OLS_|_OLS_<br>_O_|_LS_|_IV_|_IV_<br>|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|
|Observations|780|780|780|780|780|780|780|780|780|780|780|780|
|Adjusted R<sup>2</sup>|0.33|0.36|0.28|0.31|0.37|0.37|0.33|0.35|0.27|0.26|0.37|0.36|

The unit of analysis is Woredas. Standard errors are clustered on Zones and all models include Zone fixed effects. MA is the logged difference of MA from 1996 to 2016. IV indicates that MA is instrumented with a 50km MA Doughnut variable; that is, in calculating market access, Woredas within 50km are excluded. _NTL_ 96 Low, Medium, and High are dummy variables for different groups of baseline nighttime lights; groups are formed using 3-quantiles of the maximum value of nighttime lights within Woredas that had some positive nighttime lights. The excluded group is Woredas where the maximum value of nighttime lights at baseline was 0. NTL is the average nighttime lights within Woredas, Urban is the total urban area within Woredas, and Cropland is the total cropland area within Woredas; we use the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation on all outcome variables, which has a similar interpretation as logs.<sup>_∗_</sup> p _<_ 0.1;<sup>_∗∗_</sup> p _<_ 0.05;<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup> p _<_ 0 _._ 01 25