Table A.6: OLS analysis, 1995‐2015, Project Outcome (scale 1‐6 as independent variable) and ERR Reported in both PAD and ICR, as explanatory variables (Model 3)

||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|(10)|(11)|(12)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|1‐6 Rating|
|GDP PCgrowth|0.0211***<br>(3.39)|0.0202***<br>(3.28)|0.0204***<br>(3.34)|0.0203***<br>(3.30)|0.0214***<br>(3.21)|0.0206***<br>(3.37)|0.0215***<br>(3.52)|0.0181***<br>(2.96)|0.0166***<br>(2.69)|0.0198***<br>(3.19)|0.0180***<br>(2.77)|0.0175***<br>(2.87)|
|CPIA rating|0.367***|0.340***|0.302***|0.326***|0.316***|0.321***|0.304***|0.214***|0.268***|0.310***|0.179***|0.186***|
||(8.86)|(8.28)|(7.38)|(7.88)|(6.87)|(7.89)|(7.46)|(4.99)|(6.24)|(7.32)|(3.58)|(4.16)|
|CPIA scale dummy|‐0.0972|‐0.110|‐0.118|‐0.0902|‐0.0888|‐0.127|‐0.111|‐0.122|‐0.0598|‐0.0686|‐0.0285|‐0.0695|
||(‐1.22)|(‐1.39)|(‐1.51)|(‐1.14)|(‐0.99)|(‐1.62)|(‐1.42)|(‐1.56)|(‐0.45)|(‐0.81)|(‐0.19)|(‐0.52)|
|Exityear sequence|‐0.0291***|‐0.0289***|‐0.0301***|‐0.0270***|‐0.0300***|‐0.0281***|‐0.0220***|‐0.0263***|‐0.0268***|‐0.0293***|‐0.0180***|‐0.0229***|
||(‐5.52)|(‐5.53)|(‐5.81)|(‐5.12)|(‐4.88)|(‐5.44)|(‐4.22)|(‐5.08)|(‐5.18)|(‐5.60)|(‐2.86)|(‐4.33)|
|East Asia and Pacific|0.0957|0.112|0.132*|0.122*|0.118|0.136**|0.134**|0.118*|0.0262|0.100|0.0978|0.0807|
||(1.39)|(1.64)|(1.94)|(1.79)|(1.50)|(2.02)|(1.98)|(1.76)|(0.37)|(1.45)|(1.22)|(1.16)|
|Africa|‐0.169***|‐0.117*|‐0.0139|‐0.0973|0.00737|‐0.0876|‐0.0611|‐0.0818|‐0.165**|‐0.136**|0.0794|‐0.0618|
||(‐2.67)|(‐1.86)|(‐0.22)|(‐1.54)|(0.10)|(‐1.40)|(‐0.98)|(‐1.31)|(‐2.55)|(‐2.12)|(1.03)|(‐0.94)|
|East Europe and Central Asia|0.0806|0.120*|0.239***|0.126*|0.111|0.181***|0.202***|0.133**|0.0281|0.111|0.163**|0.164**|
||(1.18)|(1.77)|(3.47)|(1.86)|(1.42)|(2.69)|(2.99)|(1.98)|(0.41)|(1.62)|(2.03)|(2.36)|
|Latin America & Caribbean|0.0758|0.122*|0.190***|0.125*|0.148*|0.135**|0.162**|0.173***|0.0310|0.109|0.150*|0.112|
||(1.13)|(1.83)|(2.86)|(1.87)|(1.94)|(2.05)|(2.45)|(2.61)|(0.45)|(1.60)|(1.88)|(1.61)|
|Middle East & North Africa|‐0.132|‐0.106|‐0.0350|‐0.0834|0.000949|‐0.0767|‐0.0622|‐0.0749|‐0.180**|‐0.143*|0.0352|‐0.0807|
||(‐1.56)|(‐1.26)|(‐0.42)|(‐0.99)|(0.01)|(‐0.92)|(‐0.75)|(‐0.90)|(‐2.07)|(‐1.67)|(0.35)|(‐0.93)|
|IEG evaluation method(PPAR=1)|‐0.0274|0.0461|0.0204|0.0424|0.0658|0.0248|0.0310|0.0445|‐0.0158|0.0426|0.0161|‐0.0416|
||(‐0.56)|(0.94)|(0.42)|(0.86)|(1.22)|(0.51)|(0.64)|(0.91)|(‐0.31)|(0.84)|(0.29)|(‐0.81)|
|ERRpresent in both PAD & ICR||0.416***|0.361***|0.422***|0.401***|0.387***|0.375***|0.413***|0.348***|0.382***|0.288***|0.296***|
|||(8.74)|(7.58)|(8.85)|(7.56)|(8.20)|(7.93)|(8.77)|(6.95)|(7.80)|(5.20)|(5.92)|
|Lognet commit.(m$)|||0.131***||||||||0.0337|0.0519**|
||||(8.41)||||||||(1.37)|(2.49)|
|Project length||||‐0.0271***|||||||‐0.0107|‐0.0112|
|||||(‐2.80)|||||||(‐0.99)|(‐1.16)|
|TTLperformance|||||0.184***<br>||||||0.174***<br>||
||||||(7.95)||||||(7.18)||
|Preparation cost over commit,%||||||‐0.0343***|||||‐0.0180***|‐0.0170***|
|||||||(‐9.65)|||||(‐3.41)|(‐3.58)|
|Supervision cost over commit,%|||||||‐0.0322***||||‐0.0193***|‐0.0121**|
||||||||(‐9.94)||||(‐3.00)|(‐2.48)|
|Potentialprob. dummy (1=if raised in the 1rst half of theproj.)||||||||‐0.387***|||‐0.148***|‐0.127***|
|||||||||(‐9.32)|||(‐2.79)|(‐2.71)|
|Actualprob. dummy (1=if raised in the 1rst half of theproj.)|||||||||‐0.525***||‐0.415***|‐0.452***|
||||||||||(‐14.07)||(‐9.00)|(‐11.06)|
|Restructuringdummy (1=if restricted in the 1rst half of theproj.)||||||||||‐0.194**|‐0.00188|‐0.0108|
|||||||||||(‐2.54)|(‐0.02)|(‐0.14)|
|Observations|3975|3975|3975|3975|3054|3975|3974|3965|3455|3781|2665|3443|
|R squared|0.104|0.121|0.136|0.122|0.134|0.141|0.142|0.140|0.166|0.116|0.206|0.193|
|Sector dummies|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|
|Sector x evaluationperiod dummies<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|Y<br>|
|Sector x approvalperiod dummies|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|

Note: t statistics in parentheses, * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 32