TABLE A4: NQ SPECIFICATION WITH CASSETTE TAPES INSTRUMENT & LAGGED WHEAT PRODUCTION CONTROLS

|||Parsimonious<br>|specifications<br>||Basel<br>|ine Specificati|on|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Any|Any|Any||Any|||
|Dependent Variable (panel B & C):<br>|<br>Conflict<br>(1)<br>|<br>Conflict<br>(2)|<br>Conflict<br>(3)|Any Conflict<br>(4)|<br>Conflict<br>(5)|Intrastate<br>(6)|Interstate<br>(7)|
|_Panel B: Reduced form estimates (x 1,000)_|_*_|||||||
|<br>Cassette Tape Sales (Million USD)|<br>0.20495|0.26317|0.23956|0.17352|0.12655|0.04992|-0.01103|
|x avg. prob. of any US food aid|(0.07843)|(0.08772)|(0.08986)|(0.10930)|(0.10847)|(0.10323)|(0.03444)|
|Lag US wheat production (1,000 MT)|0.00543|0.00557|0.00630|0.00817|0.00807|0.00809|-0.00081|
|x avg. prob. of any US food aid|(0.00198)|(0.00188)|(0.00197)|(0.00247)|(0.00256)|(0.00247)|(0.00115)|
|R-squared|0.51937|0.52119|0.52925|0.54117|0.55559|0.52723|0.38202|
|_Panel C: 2SLS Estimates_||||||||
|U.S. wheat aid (1,000 MT)|0.00680|0.00394|0.00369|0.00280|0.00194|0.00077|-0.00017|
||(0.00351)|(0.00207)|(0.00192)|(0.00169)|(0.00155)|(0.00140)|(0.00047)|
|Lag US wheat production (Million MT)|-0.00782|-0.00265|-0.00182|0.00146|0.00309|0.00612|-0.00038|
|x avg. prob. of any US food aid|(0.00936)|(0.00383)|(0.00409)|(0.00477)|(0.00471)|(0.00401)|(0.00176)|
|Dependent variable (panel D):||||US wheat aid(1|,000 MT)|||
|_Panel D. First-stage estimates_||||||||
|<br>Cassette Tape Sales (Million USD)|0.03016|0.06679|0.06491|0.06196|0.06522|0.06522|0.06522|
|<br>x avg. prob. of any US food aid|(0.01346)|(0.03033)|(0.02878)|(0.02384)|(0.02775)|(0.02775)|(0.02775)|
|Lag US wheat production (1,000 MT)|0.00195|0.00208|0.00220|0.00240|0.00257|0.00257|0.00257|
|<br>x avg. prob. of any US food aid|(0.00064)|(0.00056)|(0.00059)|(0.00065)|(0.00067)|(0.00067)|(0.00067)|
|<br>KP F-Stat|<br>5.017|<br>4.849|<br>5.087|<br>6.758|<br>5.522|<br>5.522|<br>5.522|
|Controls (for all panels):||||||||
|Country FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Region-year FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|US real per capita GDP x avg.<br>Prob. of any US food aid|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|US Democratic president x.<br>avg. prob. of any US food aid|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Oil price x avg. prob. of any US<br>food aid|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Monthly recipient temperature and<br>precipitation|No|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Monthly weather x avg.<br>prob. Of any US food aid|No|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|<br>Avg. US military aid x year FE|No|No|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|<br>Avg. US economic aid x year FE|No|No|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Avg. recipient cereal imports x<br>year FE|No|No|No|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Avg. recipient cereal<br>production x year FE|No|No|No|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|<br>Observations(for allpanels):|3,896|3,896|3,896|3,896|3,896|3,896|3,896|

Notes: An observation is a country and a year. The sample includes 125 non-OECD countries for the years 1973-1984. Coefficients are reported with standard errors clustered at the country level in parentheses. The controls included are indicated in the table by Y (yes) or N (no). Coefficients are reported with standard errors clustered at the country level in parentheses. The OLS Estimates in Panel A are not reported to save space. **In panel B, the point estimates and standard errors are multiplied by 1,000 for presentation purposes. Panel D reports first-stage Kleibergen-Paap F-statistics. Data are from the NQ replication file and International Federation of the Phonographic Industry.

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