into extreme poverty due to climate change by 2030.

<!-- Start of picture text --> 180<br>Climate change Climate change<br>impacts impacts<br>160 Low 2.5 Low<br>High High<br>140<br>2.0<br>120 1.9<br>100 100.7<br>1.5<br>80<br>1.0<br>60<br>0.7<br>40 37.6<br>0.5<br>20<br>0 0.0<br>(a) (b)<br>% total population, 2030)<br>due to climate change (million, 2030)<br>Additional people living in extreme poverty Additional people living in extreme poverty<br>due to climate change (<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 2: People pushed to extreme poverty due to all climate impact channels in 2030, (a) absolute number, (b) percentage of total population In scenarios with the more pessimistic assumptions on future impacts of climate change, on average 100.7 million people are pushed into extreme poverty due to the effects of climate change. In more optimistic scenarios regarding climate change impacts, this number is reduced to 37.6 million. Figure 2b shows poverty incidence as a fraction of the total population. Within the high climate change scenarios, on average 1.9% of the total population would be pushed into poverty, whereas within the low climate change scenarios only 0.7% of the total population would become poor.

Figure 2a also shows that the high climate change scenarios have a wider distribution range of additional poverty headcount compared to the low climate change scenarios. In 95% of total cases within the high climate change scenarios, the poverty headcounts are between 81.6 million and 124 million people (a range of 42 million). Meanwhile, 95% of total cases within the low climate change scenarios have a smaller range of 16.7 million (i.e., between 31.1 million and 47.8 million). As is often the case, there is a larger uncertainty about the worst-case scenarios than the best-case scenarios.

The number of people falling into extreme poverty due to climate change varies across regions (see Figure 3).<sup>1</sup> The regions where climate change is expected to push the most people into poverty are Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, confirming previous results. Under high climate change scenarios, the numbers of people pushed into extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia & Pacific, and Latin America & Caribbean are 39.7 million, 35.7 million, 7.5 million, and 5.8 million people respectively. More optimistic climate impact assumptions (i.e., low climate change scenarios) reduce the additional poverty headcount to less than half of the numbers in the more pessimistic climate impact assumptions.

When looking at absolute numbers, regions with relatively lower poverty headcount in baseline scenarios (i.e., East Asia & Pacific and Latin America & Caribbean, see Figure 1) also have fewer number of people pushed into poverty due to climate change. However, the figure changes when we look at relative terms by comparing the poverty headcounts in Figure 1 and in Figure 3 (see Table 2). Compared to baseline scenarios (i.e., no climate change), the high climate change scenarios increase the average poverty headcount by almost 64% in East Asia & Pacific, by more than 100% in South Asia, and by a staggering amount of more than 300% in Latin America & Caribbean. In Latin America & Caribbean, extreme

> 1We include only regions with substantial coverage of poor countries in this region-level analysis. The available and workable survey data for some regions, such as Europe and Central Asia, are limited to only countries within the high income and upper middle income categories, where the international extreme poverty line is not the most relevant measure for poverty.

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