INFRASTRUCTURE AND GROWTH IN AFRICA

# **Table 12. Potential growth improvements across African regions due to better growth fundamentals, using IK2 index of aggregate infrastructure stocks**

_Main telephone lines (per 1,000 workers), electricity-generating capacity (megawatts per 1,000 workers), total roads (km. per sq. km. of arable land) (Calculations based on 2001–5 average data)_

||Growth cha|nge|Transitional|Structural|Stabilization|External<br>|Infrastructu|re developm|ent|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Variable|Actual|Predicted|convergence|policies|policies|factors|Total|Stock|Quality|
|_Scenario 1: Reaching the Africa_|_n leader 1/_|||||||||
|North Africa|6.43|**2.80**|-2.27|1.30|1.83|0.74|**1.21**|0.87|0.34|
|West Africa|7.79|**4.34**|-5.26|3.85|1.79|0.93|**3.03**|2.02|1.01|
|East Africa|7.40|**5.43**|-5.70|4.33|2.08|0.81|**3.90**|2.65|1.25|
|Southern Africa|7.56|**4.10**|-4.07|3.23|1.91|1.02|**2.00**|1.34|0.66|
|Central Africa|6.91|**4.45**|-5.29|4.52|1.29|0.42|**3.52**|2.54|0.98|
|AFRICA|7.34|**4.34**|-5.03|3.75|1.81|0.90|**2.91**|1.94|0.97|
|_Scenario 2: Reaching the represe_|_ntative country in East_|_Asia 2/_||||||||
|North Africa|0.49|**0.36**|-3.17|1.05|0.68|-0.22|**2.01**|1.23|0.79|
|West Africa|1.85|**1.90**|-6.16|3.61|0.65|-0.03|**3.83**|2.38|1.45|
|East Africa|1.47|**2.99**|-6.59|4.09|0.93|-0.14|**4.70**|3.01|1.69|
|Southern Africa|1.62|**1.66**|-4.96|2.99|0.77|0.07|**2.81**|1.70|1.11|
|Central Africa|0.97|**2.01**|-6.19|4.27|0.14|-0.53|**4.32**|2.89|1.43|
|AFRICA|1.40|**1.90**|-5.92|3.50|0.67|-0.06|**3.71**|2.30|1.42|
|_Scenario 3: Reaching the leader_|_in East Asia 3/_|||||||||
|North Africa|1.23|**2.38**|-4.63|1.71|1.58|-0.09|**3.81**|2.59|1.22|
|West Africa|2.59|**3.91**|-7.62|4.27|1.54|0.10|**5.62**|3.74|1.88|
|East Africa|2.21|**5.00**|-8.06|4.75|1.83|-0.02|**6.49**|4.37|2.13|
|Southern Africa|2.36|**3.67**|-6.43|3.65|1.66|0.19|**4.60**|3.06|1.54|
|Central Africa|1.71|**4.02**|-7.65|4.93|1.04|-0.41|**6.11**|4.25|1.86|
|AFRICA|2.14|**3.91**|-7.39|4.16|1.57|0.07|**5.51**|3.66|1.85|
|_Scenario 4: Reaching the represe_|_ntative country in Weste_|_rn Europe 4/_||||||||
|North Africa|-1.48|**-0.84**|-4.51|1.88|-0.44|-0.12|**2.35**|1.33|1.02|
|West Africa|-0.12|**0.70**|-7.50|4.44|-0.47|0.07|**4.17**|2.48|1.68|
|East Africa|-0.50|**1.79**|-7.94|4.92|-0.18|-0.05|**5.04**|3.11|1.93|
|Southern Africa|-0.34|**0.46**|-6.31|3.82|-0.35|0.16|**3.14**|1.80|1.34|
|Central Africa|-1.00|**0.81**|-7.53|5.10|-0.98|-0.44|**4.66**|3.00|1.66|
|AFRICA|-0.57|**0.70**|-7.27|4.33|-0.45|0.04|**4.05**|2.40|1.65|
|_Scenario 5: Reaching the leader_|_in Western Europe 4/_|||||||||
|North Africa|0.94|**0.27**|-5.62|2.29|0.60|-0.05|**3.04**|1.83|1.21|
|West Africa|2.30|**1.81**|-8.61|4.85|0.57|0.14|**4.86**|2.99|1.87|
|East Africa|1.92|**2.90**|-9.04|5.33|0.86|0.02|**5.73**|3.62|2.12|
|Southern Africa|2.07|**1.57**|-7.42|4.23|0.69|0.23|**3.84**|2.30|1.53|
|Central Africa|1.42|**1.92**|-8.64|5.51|0.06|-0.37|**5.35**|3.50|1.85|
|AFRICA|1.85|**1.81**|-8.38|4.74|0.59|0.11|**4.74**|2.90|1.84|

_The figures presented in table 7 represent the potential increase in the growth rate of output per worker among African countries if their 2001–5 levels of growth determinants were to reach the 2001–5 average levels of a specific benchmark country / region. In our case, the benchmark is the African leader, the South Asian leader, and the representative (median) country of East Asia and Western Europe. For these calculations we use the [IK1] index of aggregate infrastructure stocks and the regression [IK1] in table 2. Source: Author's calculations._ 55