climate change remains a secondary driver of poverty, and is less important than demographics, socioeconomic factors, and policy changes. We cannot conclude whether this remains valid over the longer term.

Finally, the quantitative impacts of climate change on poverty are much smaller in a world where socioeconomic trends and policies ensure that development is rapid, inclusive, and climate‐informed than in a world where extreme poverty would persist even without climate change. Development policies therefore appear as good adaptation policies. Climate change is however creating a renewed urgency: if poverty is not reduced rapidly, then the impact of climate change will make it even more difficult to eradicate poverty later. We have a window of opportunity to eradicate poverty and build resilience before most of the impacts from climate change materialize and make it more difficult to achieve our goals.

# 8. Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank, in no particular order, Syud Amer Ahmed, Marcio Cruz and Israel Osorio‐ Rodarte for the GIDD database and precious advice on micro‐simulation modeling; Jan Kwakkel for the scenario discovery tools; Kris Ebi for her knowledge of climate change impacts on health; Petr Havlik and Hugo Valin for the agriculture scenarios; Cyril Caminade and Tamaro Kane for malaria numbers; Simon Lloyd for inputs on stunting; Francisco Ferreira, Eeshani Kandpal, Marianne Fay and Adrien Vogt‐Schilb for comments on previous versions of this paper.

# 9. References

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- Attanasio, Orazio, and Miguel Székely. 1999. “An Asset‐Based Approach to the Analysis of Poverty in Latin America.” SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 1814653. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network. http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1814653.

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