**Table 4.  Medium-term Fiscal Projection: Baseline Scenario**

(in percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)

||Act.|Est./1|Proj.|Proj.|Proj.|Proj.|Proj.|Proj.|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**2**|**008/09**|**2009/10**|**2010/11**|**2011/12**|**2012/13**|**2013/14**|**2014/15**|**2015/16**|
|**Revenue and Grants**|**34.8**|**31.4**|**29.2**|**29.6**|**29.6**|**29.6**|**29.3**|**29.3**|
|Revenue|34.1|30.4|28.9|29.1|29.1|29.1|28.8|28.8|
|**Tax Revenue**|**23.4**|**20.3**|**19.3**|**19.1**|**19.2**|**19.4**|**19.3**|**19.4**|
|Mineral Income Tax|3.9|1.4|2.7|2.9|2.9|2.9|2.9|2.8|
|Non-Mineral Income Tax|5.3|5.1|5.2|5.1|5.2|5.2|5.3|5.4|
|Customs Pool (SACU)|8.9|9.0|6.0|5.7|5.7|5.8|5.7|5.8|
|Sales Tax/VAT|5.0|4.5|5.2|5.2|5.2|5.2|5.2|5.2|
|Other taxes, incl. export duties|0.3|0.3|0.3|0.3|0.3|0.3|0.3|0.3|
|**Non Tax Revenue**|**10.7**|**10.1**|**9.6**|**10.0**|**9.8**|**9.7**|**9.5**|**9.4**|
|Mineral Royalties and Dividends|7.7|7.6|7.4|7.8|8.1|8.0|7.8|7.6|
|Interest receipts|0.1|0.0|0.0|0.1|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Other Property Income, of which|1.6|1.3|0.9|0.8|0.4|0.3|0.3|0.4|
|o/w BOB revenue|1.5|1.1|0.7|0.7|0.3|0.3|0.3|0.3|
|Fees and charges|1.3|1.2|1.3|1.3|1.3|1.3|1.3|1.3|
|**Grants**|**0.7**|**1.0**|**0.3**|**0.5**|**0.5**|**0.5**|**0.5**|**0.5**|
|**Expenditures and Net Lending**|**40.2**|**44.6**|**39.4**|**36.7**|**33.9**|**31.7**|**30.3**|**29.0**|
|**Recurrent**|**27.3**|**29.1**|**26.9**|**25.7**|**24.2**|**23.2**|**22.4**|**21.9**|
|Wages and Salaries|10.0|10.5|9.1|8.7|8.1|7.7|7.4|7.2|
|Interest|0.3|0.4|0.7|0.7|0.8|0.9|1.0|1.1|
|Domestic Interest|0.2|...|0.5|0.3|0.3|0.4|0.4|0.5|
|External Interest|0.1|...|0.2|0.4|0.5|0.6|0.6|0.6|
|Other|17.0|18.2|17.1|16.3|15.3|14.5|14.0|13.6|
|**Development Expenditure**|**13.1**|**14.7**|**12.0**|**11.1**|**9.8**|**8.7**|**7.9**|**7.2**|
|**Net lending**|**-0.2**|**0.8**|**0.4**|**-0.1**|**-0.1**|**-0.1**|**-0.1**|**-0.1**|
|**Overall Surplus/Deficit**|**-5.4**|**-13.3**|**-10.2**|**-7.1**|**-4.3**|**-2.1**|**-0.9**|**0.3**|
|Primary surplus/deficit|-5.0|-12.8|-9.5|-6.4|-3.5|-1.2|0.1|1.3|
|**Financing**|**5.4**|**13.3**|**10.2**|**7.1**|**4.3**|**2.1**|**0.9**|**-0.3**|
|External borrowing, net|-0.1|7.2|1.3|1.0|1.4|1.1|1.1|1.1|
|New borrowing|0.2|7.6|1.6|1.3|1.8|1.6|1.7|2.3|
|Amortisation (- entry)|-0.3|-0.4|-0.3|-0.3|-0.4|-0.5|-0.6|-1.2|
|Domestic borrowing, net|1.5|0.7|-0.8|0.3|1.6|1.8|1.0|-0.6|
|New borrowing|2.2|3.0|1.9|2.7|3.1|3.9|3.5|2.7|
|Amortisation (- entry)|-0.7|-2.3|-2.7|-2.3|-1.5|-2.1|-2.6|-3.3|
|IMF Transactions|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|0.0|
|Other Financing|-1.2|-2.5|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Change in Cash Balances in GIA /2|5.3|5.0|9.7|5.9|1.4|-0.7|-1.1|-0.7|
|**_Memorandum items_**|||||||||
|Mineral revenue (% of GDP)|_11.6_|_9.0_|10.1|10.7|11.0|11.0|10.7|10.4|
|Non-mineral non-SACU revenue (% of GDP)|_12.1_|_11.3_|12.2|12.0|12.0|12.1|12.1|12.2|
|,<br>NDP10 Cumulative balance (in billions of 2008/09 Pula)||_-11.0_|-20.0|-26.6|-30.9|-33.1|-34.1|-33.8|
|Non-mineral fiscal balance (% of non-mining GDP)|_-28.7_|_-35.5_|-32.4|-28.9|-24.3|-20.4|-18.1|-15.7|
|<br>Government Investment Account (in billions of Pula)|_27.6_|_20.5_|12.6|6.7|5.3|6.6|8.5|10.0|
|Government Investment Account (% of GDP)|_31.6_|_23.1_|12.5|5.9|4.2|4.6|5.5|6.0|
|External debt & guarantees (% of GDP) /3|_..._|_13.0_|20.0|20.0|20.0|20.0|20.0|20.0|
|Domestic debt & guarantees (% of GDP) /3|_..._|_5.8_|4.4|4.3|5.4|6.6|7.0|5.9|
|Total debt & guarantees (% of GDP)|_..._|_18.7_|24.4|24.3|25.4|26.6|27.0|25.9|

Source: Author’s calculation. 1/ Estimates.

2/ A negative figure indicates an increase in the cash balance and vice versa.

3/ Data for 2008/09 do not include guarantees in the absence of information.

4/ Net of government gross assets (GIA balance and lending through RSF/PSDF) and gross liabilities (domestic and external debt). Excluding guarantees.

16