|**Table of Contents**|
|---|
|1.<br>Structure of the Fiscal Sustainability Tool.................................................................................... 4|
|<br>2.<br>The Instruction Sheet.................................................................................................................... 5|
|2.1<br>Configuring the FS tool: the Options Menu ......................................................................6|
|2.2<br>Importing new data: Import Data menu.............................................................................7|
|2.3.<br>The Stochastic Simulations menu......................................................................................9|
|3.<br>The Input Sheet........................................................................................................................... 13|
|4.<br>The Seigniorage Sheet and Steady State Fiscal Consistency Approach (as in Anand and van|
|Wijnbergen) ........................................................................................................................................ 19|
|5.<br>The Base Case Scenario Sheet.................................................................................................... 22|
|5.1.<br>Dynamic Forward-Looking Debt Simulation..................................................................22|
|5.2.<br>Dynamic Consistency Measure........................................................................................23|
|5.3.<br>Additional Outputs...........................................................................................................23|
|5.4.<br>Oil Rich Country Base Case Scenario Sheet ...................................................................26|
|<br>6.<br>The Alternative Scenario Sheets................................................................................................. 29|
|7.<br>The Bounds Test Sheets.............................................................................................................. 40|
|8.<br>Summary of Output..................................................................................................................... 48|
|References........................................................................................................................................... 51|
|Glossary .............................................................................................................................................. 53|
|Appendix A.1: Derivation of Public Debt Decomposition Dynamics................................................ 66|
|A.1.1<br>Set of Variables............................................................................................................... 66|
|A.1.2<br>Public Debt Decomposition Equation............................................................................. 67|
|A.1.3<br>Public Debt Decomposition in Oil Rich Countries......................................................... 68|
|<br>A.1.4<br>Inflation and seigniorage formulas ................................................................................. 70|
|Appendix A.2 Multivariate Stochastic Simulations............................................................................ 71|
|Tables|
|Table 1. Component of the change in public net debt to GDP ratio....................................................23|
|<br>Table 2. Output of the sheet “Table_SR” ............................................................................................25|
|Table 3. Component of the change in public net debt to GDP ratio for ORC.....................................27|
|Table 4. Output of the Sheet “TableSROil”.....................................................................................28|
|__<br>Table 5. “A1_historical” sheet.............................................................................................................30|
|Table 6. Output Table of the Alternative Scenario..............................................................................35|
|Table 7. Output Table of the No Policy Change Scenario...................................................................37|
|Table 8. Output Table of the Low Oil Price Scenario .........................................................................39|
|<br>Table 9. Real Interest Rate Bound Test. ..............................................................................................42|
|Table 10. Real GDP Bound Test..........................................................................................................43|
|Table 11. Primary Balance Bound Test...............................................................................................44|
|Table 12. Combined Bound Test .........................................................................................................45|
|Table 13. Nominal Exchange Rate Depreciation.................................................................................46|
|Table 14. Contingent Liabilities Shock ...............................................................................................47|

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