INFRASTRUCTURE AND GROWTH IN AFRICA

# **Table 6. Potential growth improvements across African regions due to better growth fundamentals, Using IK1 index of aggregate infrastructure stocks**

_Main telephone lines and mobile phones (per 1,000 workers), electricity-generating capacity (megawatts per 1,000 workers), total roads (km. per sq. km. of arable land) (Calculations based on 2001–5 average data)_

||Growth cha|nge|Transitional|Structural|Stabilization|External<br>|Infrastructu|re developm|ent|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Variable|Actual|Predicted|convergence|policies|policies|factors|Total|Stock|Quality|
|_Scenario 1: Reaching the African_|_leader 1/_|||||||||
|North Africa|6.43|**2.42**|-3.14|1.63|1.47|0.76|**1.70**|1.20|0.50|
|West Africa|7.79|**3.19**|-8.78|4.34|1.57|0.88|**5.19**|4.06|1.13|
|East Africa|7.40|**3.73**|-9.34|4.51|1.81|1.05|**5.70**|4.41|1.30|
|Southern Africa|7.56|**3.45**|-5.91|3.19|2.23|0.90|**3.04**|2.25|0.79|
|Central Africa|6.91|**3.96**|-7.96|5.00|1.17|0.61|**5.14**|3.91|1.23|
|AFRICA|7.34|**3.36**|-7.37|3.90|1.64|0.84|**4.36**|3.33|1.02|
|_Scenario 2: Reaching the East A_|_sian representative coun_|_try 2/_||||||||
|North Africa|0.49|**0.36**|-4.58|1.44|0.50|-0.20|**3.20**|2.22|0.98|
|West Africa|1.85|**1.13**|-10.22|4.15|0.60|-0.08|**6.68**|5.08|1.60|
|East Africa|1.47|**1.67**|-10.78|4.32|0.84|0.09|**7.20**|5.43|1.77|
|Southern Africa|1.62|**1.38**|-7.35|3.00|1.27|-0.06|**4.53**|3.27|1.25|
|Central Africa|0.97|**1.90**|-9.40|4.81|0.21|-0.35|**6.64**|4.93|1.71|
|AFRICA|1.40|**1.30**|-8.81|3.71|0.68|-0.12|**5.85**|4.35|1.49|
|_Scenario 3: Reaching the leader i_|_n East Asia 2/_|||||||||
|North Africa|1.23|**2.74**|-6.94|1.89|1.27|-0.07|**6.60**|5.16|1.44|
|West Africa|2.59|**3.50**|-12.58|4.59|1.37|0.05|**10.08**|8.02|2.07|
|East Africa|2.21|**4.05**|-13.14|4.76|1.61|0.22|**10.60**|8.36|2.24|
|Southern Africa|2.36|**3.76**|-9.71|3.44|2.03|0.07|**7.93**|6.21|1.72|
|Central Africa|1.71|**4.28**|-11.76|5.25|0.97|-0.22|**10.04**|7.87|2.17|
|AFRICA|2.14|**3.67**|-11.17|4.15|1.44|0.01|**9.25**|7.29|1.96|
|_Scenario 4: Reaching the represen_|_tative country in Weste_|_rn Europe 3/_||||||||
|North Africa|-1.48|**-0.97**|-6.75|2.59|-0.43|-0.10|**3.73**|2.50|1.23|
|West Africa|-0.12|**-0.20**|-12.39|5.29|-0.33|0.02|**7.22**|5.36|1.85|
|East Africa|-0.50|**0.34**|-12.95|5.46|-0.09|0.19|**7.73**|5.71|2.02|
|Southern Africa|-0.34|**0.05**|-9.52|4.14|0.34|0.04|**5.06**|3.56|1.50|
|Central Africa|-1.00|**0.57**|-11.57|5.95|-0.72|-0.25|**7.17**|5.21|1.96|
|AFRICA|-0.57|**-0.03**|-10.99|4.85|-0.26|-0.02|**6.38**|4.64|1.74|
|_Scenario 5: Reaching the leader i_|_n Western Europe 3/_|||||||||
|North Africa|0.94|**-0.55**|-8.54|2.66|0.44|-0.03|**4.91**|3.48|1.43|
|West Africa|2.30|**0.22**|-14.18|5.37|0.55|0.09|**8.40**|6.34|2.06|
|East Africa|1.92|**0.76**|-14.73|5.54|0.79|0.26|**8.91**|6.69|2.23|
|Southern Africa|2.07|**0.48**|-11.31|4.22|1.21|0.11|**6.25**|4.54|1.71|
|Central Africa|1.42|**0.99**|-13.35|6.03|0.15|-0.18|**8.35**|6.19|2.16|
|AFRICA|1.85|**0.39**|-12.77|4.92|0.62|0.05|**7.57**|5.62|1.95|

_The figures presented in table 7 represent the potential increase in the growth rate of output per worker among African countries if their 2001–5 levels of growth determinants were to reach the 2001–5 average levels of a specific benchmark country / region. In our case, the benchmark is the African leader, the South Asian leader, and the representative (median) country of East Asia and Western Europe. For these calculations we use the [IK1] index of aggregate infrastructure stocks and the regression [IK1] in table 2. 1/ The leader in infrastructure stocks and quality in the Africa region are South Africa and Mauritius, respectively. 2/ Korea and Hong Kong represent the median in stocks and quality of infrastructure, respectively, while Singapore and Taiwan are the leaders of EAP7. 3/ The representative countries in Western Europe in infrastructure development are the United Kingdom (stock and quality) and Ireland (quality). On the other hand, Norway and Germany are the leaders in quantity and quality, respectively. Source: Author's calculations._ 49