rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
25 heaping at 1 month (Table C.5 of the 2008 DHS report). Nonetheless, to test for sensitivity to misreporting, we also ran the postneonatal analysis using an alternative definition, examining only deaths that took place during at age 2-12 months. These results (not shown) are similar to those for postneonatal mortality presented in the body of the paper.

# **Data description and imputation procedures – Malaria prevalence data**

The data on malaria risk in the DHS clusters were kindly provided by the Malaria Atlas Project funded by the Wellcome Trust, UK. The data stem from a map of infection and malaria risk distribution in Kenya in 2009. The map was created within a Bayesian geostatistical spatialtemporal framework using data on Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates in Kenya in 1975-2009. For further details on methods and data used for the map of malaria risk in Kenya in 2009 see Noor, Gething et al (2009).

Using the GIS information on the location of clusters in Kenya DHS surveys, a malaria risk measure was attributed to each cluster. The measure of malaria endemicity is the posterior predicted mean parasite prevalence (mean PfPR) among children aged 2-10 years. Since the data on malaria prevalence are available for the year 2009, we have a good malaria risk measure for observations from the DHS 2008-2009 and only an approximation for observations in the DHS 2003.<sup>18</sup> The GIS information is missing for one cluster in the DHS 2003 and for one cluster in 2008, leading to the exclusion of the affected observations from the analysis (concerns 20 observations).

Based on a recommendation by Robert Snow from the Malaria Atlas Project, we created a categorical variable on malaria risk. Originally, 5 malaria risk zones were recommended: very low transmission hard to distinguish from zero (mean PfPR lower than 0.1%), low risk (mean PfPR higher than 0.1% and lower than 1%), intermediate low risk (mean PfPR between 1 and 4.9%), intermediate risk (mean PfPR between 5 and 39%), and high risk (mean PfPR higher than 40%). Intermediate risk of malaria is present particularly in the coastal region whereas high risk of malaria is characteristic for lakeside communities at the Lake Victoria. These two categories

> 18 There is evidence that malaria prevalence is in transition in Kenya. Particularly, a decrease in the malaria risk was denoted on Kenyan coast (Okiro 2007). Thus, the measure might underestimate malaria risk on the coast in 2003. For other regions, time-trends in malaria are not so clear.
consumption, would be more dependent on the severity of the presenting complication(s) than the nmethod used for uterine evacuation. Thus, including these patients durIng a brief data-collection period would have biased the results in favor of the procedure with the fewest patients with _other_ complications.

Table 1. Characteristics of Study Hospitals **by** Country and Procedure

|Characteristic|Kenya (4<br>D&C|hospitals)<br>MVA|Mexico (5<br>D&C|hospitals)<br>MVA|Ecuador (<br>D&C|5 hospitals)<br>MVA|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|No. of Data<br>Colection<br>Sites|2*|4*|5**|1**|I|2***|
|No. of Cases|22|77|66|8|13|14|
|System|Ministry of<br>Health<br>(MOH)<br>I__<br>_<br>______|MOH|Mexican Social<br>Security<br>System (IMSS)|IMSS|MOH|National<br>Welfare Board<br>and MOHt<br>municipal<br>°govemmnent|
|Hospital Level<br>l__________|secondary (4)|secondary (3)<br>tertiary<br>(1)|secondary (3)<br>tertiary<br>(2)|tertiary (1)|tertiary (1)|secondary (2)|
|Location of<br>Procedure|central<br>operating<br>room|treatment<br>room in<br>gynecology<br>ward|gynecology<br>surgical roomt<br>evacuation<br>room|gynecology<br>surgical roonm<br>evacuation<br>room|evacuation<br>room|evacuadon<br>rooml<br>treatment room<br>in emergency<br>room|
|Provider|physician|physician|physician|physician|physician|physician|
|Pain Control|light sedation|none|heavy sedation|paracervical<br>block|heavy sedation|heavy<br>sedation/<br>paracervical<br>block|
|Recovery Protocl|overnight stay<br>in gynecology<br>ward|brief stay in<br>gynecology<br>ward until<br>able to leave|overnight stay,<br>or stay in<br>ambulatory<br>surgery|brief stay in<br>ambulatory<br>surgery until<br>able to leave|brief stay in<br>side room,<br>evacuadon<br>room, or<br>hallway until<br>able to leave|overnight stay<br>in ward or stay<br>in recovery<br>room; brief<br>stay in<br>emnergency<br>room until<br>able to leave|

***** KENI and KEN2 were D&C sites prior to the implementation of MVA; data were collected on D&C patients and, subsequently, on MVA patients.

**In one hospital, MEX5, data were collected for both D&C and MVA patients.

***Data collected at two hospitals (ECU3 and ECU4) were excluded due to very low caseloads.

4
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Figure 5.5: Decomposition of Post-Communist Transitions: Full Reform vs Reducing Idiosyncratic Distortions <!-- Start of picture text --> TFP Investment Rate<br>Full Reform<br>Reform Misalloc<br>1998 2002 2006 2010 1998 2002 2006 2010<br>Year Year<br>Income Share Top 1% Av Size<br>1998 2002 2006 2010 1998 2002 2006 2010<br>Year Year<br>1.10<br>0.15<br>1.00<br>0.05<br>Relative to SS 1998 Diff from SS 1998<br>0.90 −0.05<br>25 2.0<br>20<br>15 1.5<br>10<br>1.0<br>5 Rel. to SS 1998<br>Difference from 1998 0 0.5<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: The gure reports the transitional dynamics of the _TFP_ , the Investment Rate, the Income Share of the Top 1% earnings, and the average rm size under the baseline reform (Full Reform) and under a partial reform where the productivity elasticity of the idiosyncratic distortions follows its calibrated path, and the capital-output ratio and the prot tax remain xed at their initial values (Reform Misalloc). The _TFP_ and the average rm size are reported relative to their 1998 values, the top earnings share is presented in percentage, and the investment rate is reported as absolute dierence from the initial steady-state.

# 6 Conclusion

In this paper we presented a quantitative model of economic transitions to aid in understanding the macro and micro patterns of development dynamics in post-war acceleration episodes and post-communist transitions.

Our model builds upon recent theories of rm-level innovation, with entry, exit, and a stationary rm size distribution. We innovated upon these theories by interacting the built-in mechanisms of the model with two types of allocative distortions, idiosyncratic distortions and prot taxes, and by characterizing the transition dynamics. Furthermore, our analysis exploits the time-series dimension in existing empirical studies of misallocation in developing countries to come up with a novel strategy to discipline reforms. This allowed us to explore the quantitative behavior of the model in the context of a calibrated path of dismantlement of distortions.

Our ndings suggest that our theory can account for the salient features of development dynamics in acceleration episodes. A property of our ndings is that, 35
homeownership rates of African Americans moved up in parallel with gains by white Americans, though huge black‐white disparities in wealth persisted. Both trends were fueled by the 50‐year Great Migration of African Americans, from the largely agricultural South to higher wage jobs in industrial cities in the Northeast, Midwest, and West. Economic, political, and social opportunity were much greater in those destination markets than in Southern states, whose economies were still predominantly rural and whose elected officials fought against expanded civil rights (Lemann 1991; Wilkerson 2010).

The years since this period, however, have been marked by sharply increasing economic inequality, with most gains from rising productivity going to investors, not workers (Levy and Temin 2007). As American dominance in manufacturing waned, a wide array of national leaders grew to embrace policies supporting trade liberalization and the dominance of the financial sector not just in the U.S. but globally. Growth in trade and “financialization,” along with changing technologies and skill demands, have contributed significantly to rising levels of income inequality in the U.S.; but so has the erosion of policies and institutions, including collective bargaining and affordable higher education, that promoted shared gains in income and wealth (Cornia 2003, Goldberg and Pavcnik 2004, Lin and Tomaskovic‐Devey 2013). Consistent with the thesis that uneven spatial development is endemic to market economies, these trends had particularly severe effects on city‐regions that underwent significant economic restructuring—especially de‐ industrialization—over the past forty years (Bluestone and Harrison 1982).

At the national level, increased inequality in the distribution of earnings was a consequence of these structural changes. Whereas the top 5 percent of earners took home 17.2 percent of the income in 1967, they accounted for 22.3 percent in 2012 (U.S. Census 2013a). The average incomes of those in the top 5 percent grew—after adjusting for inflation—by 70 percent, to over $318,000, while those in the lowest 20 percent grew only 19 percent, to less than $11,500 (U.S. Census 2013b). Since 2000, moreover, the real average income at the bottom of the distribution has dropped 15 percent, whereas the real average income for the top 5 percent has dropped by only 4 percent. These levels distinguish the U.S. as the most unequal income distribution in the industrialized world 4
> <sup>21</sup>

In a non-credible environment, the association between incumbent approval and partisan preference should be asymmetric. In line with Ferejohn (1986), citizen reliance on _ex post_ evaluations should lead them to prefer the party of the incumbent who meets a performance threshold. However, when challengers are not credible, disapproval of incumbent performance should not be associated with higher rates of partisan preference.

Questions 65a and 65b in the Afrobarometer survey gauge respondent opinions of the incumbent with the questions, “How well or badly is government managing the economy?” and, “How well or badly is the government creating jobs?” Nearly all respondents express a negative or positive opinion (94 and 96 percent, respectively). Two variables are created from these questions, equaling one if respondents answered “fairly well” or “very well” and zero otherwise. If both incumbent and challenger parties are credible, this variable should be insignificant.

Ethnic grievances can also influence partisan preferences. They might emerge because the group is unrepresented, or grievances might prompt the emergence of a party that represents the group. The grievance variable is based on two questions. Question 80a asks whether the respondent believes the economic condition of the respondent’s ethnic group is worse or better than that of other groups. Question 81 asks whether the respondent believes the government treats the respondent’s ethnic group unfairly. Ethnic grievance is then a dichotomous variable that equals one if, in response to question 81, respondents indicated that their group was often or always treated unfairly by the government _and_ if, in response to question 80a, respondents indicated that their group was economically worse off or much worse off than other groups.<sup>10</sup> 11.5 percent of 10 The majority of those with grievances belong to large ethnic groups. In Ghana, 67 of 140
Second, we find that employment generates benefits that are significantly greater than that of cash alone, which yields a statistically insignificant 0.06 unit increase in our psychosocial index, consistent with recent meta-analyses of the mental health impacts of cash transfers (Ridley et al. (2020); McGuire, Kaiser, and Bach-Mortensen (2020)). We can reject equality of effects between employment and cash for our mental health index ( _p_ = 0 _._ 000), reported physical health ( _q_ = 0 _._ 081), cognitive performance ( _q_ = 0 _._ 028), and risk tolerance ( _q_ = 0 _._ 028).<sup>3</sup> These differences are substantial: employment improves mental health at a magnitude four times greater than cash alone.

Third, we find a high willingness to supply labor among study participants even at a wage of zero, suggesting that individuals are able to internalize the psychosocial benefits of employment. Through an incentivized elicitation of reservation wages for an additional week of work, we find that the majority (69%) of individuals are willing to work an additional week for zero pay. Among these individuals, the vast majority (77%) are willing to forego an alternative low-effort activity offered by the NGO for which they can earn 200 BDT (approximately $2.5 USD, or average savings at baseline) to instead continue working for no pay. We elicit these measures after eight weeks of working, with the intent of both familiarizing participants with the nature of the work and eliminating novelty effects that might arise in the early days of new employment.

We consider two potential confounds to the experiment: expectations of future work and experimenter demand effects. While we cannot rule out that our work made participants hopeful of eligibility for future work, a randomization of a certificate, intended to provide an explicit boost to the resumes of our employees, has no measurable impact on psychosocial well-being. Nor do we see differences in expected or actual employment among the treated after the experiment. To address experimenter demand, we supplement our psychosocial index with a variety of objective and incentivized measures, from memory and arithmetic questions, to the incentivized risk preference game, to the incentivized labor supply exercise. Each reiterates our findings of significant non-pecuniary benefits to employment.

To what can we attribute these gains? We explore how work makes one feel, how it shapes one’s day, and how one spends their earnings. We lack experimental variation along most of these margins, so we cannot rule in or out any mechanism definitively, but we find strong evidence of self-worth vis- ́a-vis the family, channel: employment significantly increases one’s perception of how valuable they are to their family. We find little evidence that the social element of the work, or the community-centric purpose embedded in the work generates

> 3 ‘q’ represents sharpened q-values, or p-values corrected for multiple hypothesis testing using Anderson (2008). The mental health index is a single index of psychosocial measures and is therefore not subject to correction for multiple hypothesis testing.

3
- Improve the reputation of the region through certification of good practices in governance for a critical mass of African countries under the African Peer Review mechanism.

- Increase regional connectivity to improve capacity to trade within the region and with the outside world.

- Enhance the capacity of a rationalized system of regional bodies to provide regional public goods, such as cross-country transportation and power sharing, coordination in managing pandemics, and protection of regional commons such as the Nile and the Great Lakes.

**_Overall Policy and Institutional Environment._** Although there is no perfect or leading indicator of the overall quality of policy and institutional environment, the World Bank’s CPIA provides a consistent framework for assessing country performance on 16 items, which are grouped into four wide-ranging clusters: economic management, structural policies, policies for social inclusion and equity, and public sector management and institutions.

The average CPIA scores for African countries have been rising. The average CPIA score in 1995 was 2.8. By 2006, it had risen to 3.2. The number of African countries with scores equal to or greater than the threshold of 3.5 for international good performance had also risen, from 5 countries in 1997 to 17 in 2006.

Economic performance among African countries is highly correlated with the quality of policy (see figure 11). Countries with CPIA scores of greater than or equal to 3.5 by 2006 tend to have higher growth and lower inflation than those with scores lower than 3.5 (excluding Zimbabwe). The low-income countries (excluding middle-income and oil-exporting countries) with good policy and institutional environment are in fact doing very well: growth averaged 5.1 percent and inflation was 6.9 percent.

**_Macroeconomic Management._** The most striking improvement in policy is observed for macroeconomic stabilization. Inflation among African countries has come down dramatically since 1995 (figure 12). The number of countries able to keep inflation below 10 percent a year increased from 11–26 in the early 1990s to about 31–35 since 2000. From the 1980s to the present, there were as many as 10 different African countries with hyperinflation (greater than 50 percent) at one point or another. The extreme values can run over thousands of percentage points. The countries with hyperinflation have included Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

27
rural girls and urban boys. This finding is similar to that in Bhalotra and Heady (2003), in which the authors explain the pattern by that the not-so-poor households with lands or productive assets are more likely to use their own children as child labor. This relationship will be further examined in the multinomial logit model. However, it is important to note that the relationship between wealth and child work could be contingent on different years.

Such contingency of wealth-child work relationship on years suggests the relationship is volatile. The graph shows that it is mostly driven by children who are at the lowest distribution of wealth. The likelihood to work for the extreme poor children might be highly contingent on the demand for their work both within the households and/or in the communities. There might be less opportunities for the extreme poor children to work compared with those whose households own some productive assets. Nonetheless, this pattern suggests a broader targeting to reduce child labor by not just focusing on the poorest of the poor, but also those around the poverty line.

In the case of inactiveness (Figure 2C), the relationship between wealth and propensity of child inactiveness is downward sloping for all groups and all years. However, there is an increase of inactiveness in 2005/2006 for both rural girls and urban girls who are blow the poverty line. Such increase is accompanied with the decrease in the propensity of working in the same years.

# **_6.2 Results from Multinomial Logit Analysis_**

This section presents the multinomial logit results for the four groups. I will focus the discussion on the relationship of log per capita expenditures and ownership of agricultural productive assets with child activities. Before the results are presented, the limitation of this study should be acknowledged. Per capita expenditure is endogenous thus the paper can only examine the correlations between wealth and child activity decision rather than causality 15
3 Despite these differences, the retirement systems of most developed nations, and increasingly developing economies as well, contront a number of common problems. In the years to come, most nations will experience population aging, hlgig unemployment rates, and shifts in economic structure. These pose new challenges for retirement systems, and may require fundamental reforms In both benefit formulas and financing approaches. An understanding of how existing retirement systems work, or sometimes fail to work, offers valuable lessons for the future. No country would wish to simply import another nation's model _In toto._ Nevertheless, i Is useful to Identify successful experiences to be emulated, and unsuccessful experimen **t** s o be avoided. Better understanding of what makes for efficient and equiable retirement systems that can mee **t** he changing demographic and economic needs of future generatons of workers and retirees will be Invaluable for both developed nations and economies In transkion.

The plan of the paper is as follows. Section A briefly reviews recen **t** rends toward early retrement, and evaluate explanations for these trends. Institutional characteristics of retirement systems are discussed in Section B, which Introduces the notion of wmultiple-pillarsWforeti **r** ement income securiy Including govemment, employer, and Individual/family support. Of central interest are pension coverage and benefit pattems, as well as funding and investment practices. Section C presents a discussion of the economic effects of retirement systems on labor and capital markets. Conclusions, policy options, and research needs for policymakem offering economic assistance to economies in transkion are enumerated in the final section.

# A. Retirement Patterns and Flows

This section presents data on recen **t** rends toward early retirement, and evaluate **s** everal explanations for these trends. One of the most Important change in industrialized nations' labor markets over the last two decades was a massive movement to eariy retirement. There Is support for the view that the trend toward earlier retirement was fac!itated and strongly motivated by factors which made i poss:ble for older workers to leave their main jobs, Including public and private pensions, as well as other
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