of migrants and that migrants became more evenly distributed over the various routes connecting Libyan provinces.

Examining the international network of migrants’ movements to and from Libyan provinces, we identify three migrant passages running across the country: an eastern route (from Alkufra to Tobruk), a central route (from Murzuq to Tripoli), and a western route (from Ghat province to Zwara and Aljfara provinces). The evolution of the international migration network between 2017 and 2018 indicates a change in the network structure; whereas the 2017 network was very dense, the 2018 network was far sparser. The number of origin countries decreased, and the number of different routes within Libya that migrants from each country used decreased as well. At the same time, the number of destination countries decreased, and each destination country had fewer connections. In particular, some of the African countries reported as preferred destinations in 2017 disappeared from the list in 2018, namely Chad, Mali, and Nigeria. The fact that these are all conflict-affected countries suggests that migrants who initially hoped that they would be able to return have instead outmigrated to Europe. This would explain the drastic reduction in the number of connections between Libyan provinces. To the extent that these connections indicate that migrants intend to remain in Libya or return to their country of origin, we interpret this as evidence that migrants have become more likely to leave Libya and go to Europe.

Our analysis combines a set of tools taken from spatial statistics and network analysis. Methods from spatial statistics are used to analyze location choices and identify common patterns in migration movements. These methods also allow us to identify hotspots and clusters and major gateways for the international migration network passing through Libya. Social network analysis is used to map the network of migratory movements, determine the level of migratory pressure in different provinces, and identify the formation of network hubs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to use these techniques to characterize the formation and evolution of human movements across space.

Political attention is increasingly being paid to migration in developing countries, but there are still significant gaps in the understating of this complex phenomenon. Analysis of the Libyan case can help identify factors that determine international and internal migration in a context of high risk and uncertainty. By documenting the characteristics, determinants, and evolution of migration in Libya, our paper provides the first systematic, medium-term analysis of the evolution of migration flows in the country. Furthermore, it illustrates a set of methodologies that can be easily replicated to expand the analysis over time by including additional waves of the DTM. Understanding the medium-term evolution of migration in Libya is a precondition for any policy intervention that goes beyond the immediate response to emergency or short-term changes. In this sense, our analysis, by showing how to use DTM data to characterize the evolution of migration patterns to, within, and from Libya, indicates how to use available data to track migrant movements and thus identify the best responses to the challenges that migration flows create. One of the main findings of our analysis was that migration 3