rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
This finding may have major cost-efficiency implications for the design of CCT programs, because it suggests that modest payments can be almost as effective at inducing attendance and improving educational outcomes as much more substantial ones.

# _4.3. Conditionality_

We directly randomized whether the offers in an EA were conditional upon school attendance among _baseline schoolgirls_ . We therefore have experimental evidence that helps us to identify the ‘price’ effect whereby conditionality alters the relative costs and benefits of schooling versus other uses of children’s time. As the average transfer to the _conditional_ and the _unconditional_ group is the same, any difference in outcomes between these two randomly assigned groups can be interpreted as the impact of the ‘conditionality’.<sup>21</sup> As can be seen in Table 6, there are no significant one-year impacts of conditionality on schooling and literacy.<sup>22</sup> A major advantage of our research design is that it intersects multiple forms of contract variation simultaneously, thereby providing us with experimental evidence on the impact of one contract parameter across the distribution of a different parameter. One question of interest is whether increasing transfer amounts is more effective when the transfer is conditional, compared to the same increase in transfer size for an unconditional transfer. A visual representation of such an investigation is given in Figure 9, which separately plots changes in schooling for conditional and unconditional girls, and for each group, by transfer amount. There is no obvious pattern. This two-parameter variation is exploited through an interaction analysis in Table 6. The transfer size is interacted with the dummy for conditionality, and the

> 21 As mentioned in section 3.2 above, secondary school fees were directly paid to the school for _conditional_ cash transfer recipients. To ensure that the average transfer size for the _unconditional_ group was equal to that in the _conditional_ group, we have added the average secondary school fees to the monthly transfers received by the parents in the _unconditional_ group. To avoid any semblance or mention of _conditionality_ or _schooling_ , this was done for girls who were eligible to attend secondary school at the time of the offer and was simply included in the amount offered to the parents in _unconditional_ treatment EAs.

> 22 The finding that there is no statistically significant effect of the conditionality on schooling outcomes holds if attendance data from the school survey are used in the analysis (Table 4b) instead of the self-reported attendance data.

20
each compound and family by name, age and sex. From 1 July 1988, village reporters recorded all births, deaths and permanent migration movements occurring in their villages. This information was collected weekly and checked by MRC field assistants, men and women with secondary school education from the area or nearby. At the MRC field station near Farafenni, these data were regularly entered into a computer so that updated census files could be maintained and checked on a continuous basis.

In addition, a single-round retrospective survey of the lifetime fertility and childhood mortality experience of all women of reproductive age in the study area was carried out early in 1990 for two reasons. First, information on the longer-term trends in childhood mortality were needed to be sure that childhood mortality had not been on diverging paths in the preintervention period in the PHC and non-PHC villages. There were some concerns that mortality might have been changing at a different rate in the larger PHC villages compared with the non-HC villages. In addition, despite the care and attention which goes into the routine recording of vital events in the surveillance area, there are always a few events which slip through the net. Some of these can be picked up during the annual dry season re-enumeration of the population. Accordingly, a household form including the basic Brass questions on children ever-borne alive and surviving to interview was designed, as well as a simple birth history for all women of reproductive age, regardless of marital status. The childhood deaths from the birth histories were then matched with the MRC records to ensure completeness of coverage. Only a small number of discrepancies were found, largely due to errors in the retrospective dating of vital events in the single-round survey.

# Cause of death ascertainment

All the parents or guardians of children who died in the study period (1 July 1988 until 30 June 1990) in both PHC and 6
realized DDI reduced by 43.7 percent in the period after policy as compared to the period before policy and increased by 25.2 percent in the fully liberalized sectors (Table 5). For the sectors liberalized at _>_ =50 percent _<_ 75 percent, realized DDI dropped, by 25.7 percent. However, for the sectors liberalized at _>_ =75 percent _<_ 100 percent, realized FDI increased by 24.8 percent in the period after policy as compared to the period before policy. Similar to FDI, we see a higher increase in investment in sectors where FDI was more liberalized. This suggests that more open sectors to FDI also attracted more investments domestically.

Table 5: Realized DDI by Percentage of Liberalization

||ATET|ATET|ATET|ATET|ATET|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|0% (1vs0) Liberalized|-0.437***<br>(0.116)|||||
|_>_=25%_<_50% (1vs0) Liberalized||-1.170<br>(0.708)||||
|_>_=50%_<_75% (1vs0) Liberalized|||-0.257***<br>(0.0211)|||
|_>_=75%_<_100% (1vs0) Liberalized||||0.248***<br>(0.0187)||
|100 % (1vs0) Liberalized|||||0.252**<br>(0.0252)|
|Observations|900|900|900|900|900|

Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p _<_ 0.01, ** p _<_ 0.05, * p _<_ 0.1 Note: The treatment corresponds to 1 while the control group is 0. ATET denotes the weighted average treatment effect on the treated. ATET estimates are adjusted for sector/panel effects and time effects. The sample period is January 2019 to September 2022.

# **4.3 Drivers of Growth in Fully Liberalized Sectors and Those Linked to SDGs**

We then assess the growth in realized FDI, DDI and planned FDI to check the drivers of growth in these sectors and whether FDI can be linked with sustainable development sectors. This will enable us to assess, to the extent possible, the quality in addition to the quantity of FDI. For that, we use the UNCTAD list of ”SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) investment” – project finance in infrastructure, food security, water and sanitation, and health (UNCTAD, 2022). Due to the data challenges outlined in the Data Section and the level of aggregation of our data, we are unable to pinpoint exact investments that are not defined at the 2-digit KBLI level. As such, in this 17
targets that the international community agreed to pursue at the 2000 UN Millennium Summit (MOPIC, 2003, 2010).

Nevertheless, Yemen’s government has stated that it views accelerated MDG progress and, if possible, full achievement of the MDG targets as a high priority. To this end, it has issued the abovementioned MDG Reports as well as one ―Needs Assessment‖ (MOPIC, 2005). Using a bottom-up approach, the latter study attempts to specify the requirements for full MDG achievements in terms of spending and service delivery. The analysis does not use an integrated approach but treats each sector that is directly linked to the MDGs (most importantly health, education, and water-sanitation) in isolation from each other and from the rest of the economy.

In terms of the required service expansion and other changes needed to achieve the MDGs covered in this paper, the analysis takes the information in the 2005 ―Needs Assessment‖ as its point of departure. However, it goes beyond that assessment by situating the pursuit of alternative MDG strategies in the context of Yemen’s economy, for each scenario simulating its impact on a wide range of interrelated economic indicators; in addition to key MDG indicators (related to poverty, health, primary education, and water and sanitation), the analysis covers the impacts on national accounts aggregates, macroeconomic balances (including the government budget and the balance of payments), the size of the government relative to the rest of the economy, as well as production and trade in different sectors. One key aspect of the analysis is that it considers the repercussions of relying on different sources (foreign or domestic) for the additional government financing that is required.

In terms of method, the simulation analysis is based on MAMS, an economy-wide model developed at the World Bank for MDG and development strategy analysis. Results from MAMS scenarios are passed on to a microsimulation model that relies on household survey data to assess effects on poverty and inequality.

More specifically, the initial set of simulations, which covers the period 2004-2015, addresses the extent of the scaling-up of government services that would have been required to achieve international MDG targets for education, health, and water-sanitation, 4
|Livestock<br>Non-Housing|Wealth<br>(3)<br>(4)|(-3.32∗∗∗)<br>(-0.61∗∗∗)|-(0.47)∗∗∗<br>-(0.15)∗∗∗<br><br>(-0.29∗∗∗)<br>(-0.04∗∗∗)|-(0.84)∗∗∗<br>-(0.26)∗∗∗<br><br>(-2.91∗∗∗)<br>(-0.75∗∗∗)|-(0.78)∗∗∗<br>-(0.21)∗∗∗<br><br>(-0.24∗∗∗)<br>(-0.96∗∗∗)|-(0.08)∗∗∗<br>-(0.03)∗∗∗|-12364∗∗∗<br>-7484∗∗∗|-0.28∗∗∗<br>-0.29∗∗∗<br>experienced more terrorist attacks from 1973 to 2014<br>h direct links to some livestock activity as one of their<br>controls include gender, age, marital status, education,<br>∗p<0.05, ∗p<0.1.|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Gold &|Silver<br>(2)|)<br>(-0.59∗∗∗)|∗<br>-(0.20)∗∗∗<br>)<br>(-2.46∗∗∗)|∗<br>-(0.95)∗∗∗<br>)<br>(-0.23∗∗∗)|∗<br>-(0.72)∗∗∗<br>)<br>(-0.94∗∗∗)|∗<br>-(0.08)∗∗∗|∗<br>-12364∗∗∗|-0.17∗∗∗<br> high-confict if it <br>t an occupation wit<br>d/Household-head<br>evels: ∗∗∗p<0.01, ∗|
|GSL|(1)|(-2.82∗∗∗|-(0.46)∗∗<br>(-0.11∗∗∗|-(0.82)∗∗<br>(-1.21∗∗∗|-(0.78)∗∗<br>(-0.43∗∗∗|-(0.08)∗∗|-12364∗∗|-0.19∗∗∗<br> is classifed <br>s who repor<br>s. Househol<br>ignifcance l|
|||||||||A confict <br>s household<br>parenthese<br>dwelling. S|
|Variables||Variance of Income (log)|Confict×Variance of Income (log)|Confict|Income (log)||Observations|R-squared<br>The table shows the estimated coefcients of equation (2). <br>compared to the mean of all provinces. The sample exclude<br>three main sources of income. Robust standard errors are in<br>household size, number of males per household, and type of|

29
- 30 -

The CVD and the central excise tax are subject to the modified value added tax (MODVAT). Table 8 reports the contribution of the various taxes to the revenue of the Union (the Central government) and that of the Union and States.

The table shows that protective customs duties account for a high - proportion 31Z of Union revenues. Hence reduction of those duties may be expected to have a significant impact on the public finances and would require offsetting policies, most likely with respect to excise taxes-cumCVD.<sup>2 7</sup> Assessing those budgetary consequences and estimating the magnitude of those changes require a framework that incorporates the appropriate economywide linkages. On the other hand, the categories used in tariff reform analysis are sectorally disaggregated, so that it is necessary also to ascertain how the economywide changes traced above would affect, for example, various subsectors within the manufacturing sector. These objectives are reconciled by implementing two models on a common (1987/88) data base: (1) a 72-sector disaggregated version that makes simple assumptions regarding certain economywide relationships and (ii) an aggregated 6-sector version that makes more appropriate assumptions about those relationships and suggests what correction ought therefore to be made to the results of the sectorally detailed analysis.

This approach can be used as follows. The disaggregated model assumes, for ease of computation, that the real returns to primary factors such as capital and various types of labor are fixed at their base year levels or, equivalently, that the factors are in perfectly elastic supply at those real factor prices. These factors combine with

> 27/ It is important that the adjustment be made to both the excise as well as the CVD which matches the excise tax. The argument is spelled out in Mitra (1990).
in equation (2). Again, the first column reports results for total imports and the second column for non-oil imports only. Results are not statistically different from each other across columns. The intra-PAFTA trade creation is now disentangle into four possible categories: trade creation among resource rich countries in the first row; trade creation when the importer is resource rich and the exporter is resource poor in the second row; trade creation when the importer is resource poor and the exporter is resource rich in the third row; and finally trade creation among resource poor countries in the last row.

The coefficients on intra-PAFTA trade creation are all positive and statistically different from zero. They are not very different from each other, and when we perform the 6 possible test of equality among intra-PAFTA trade creation coefficients we found that only 2 reject the null hypothesis that they are equal. Those are the tests for _H_ 0<sup>:</sup> _RPi_  _RRj_  _RRi_  _RPj_ , and for _H_ 0<sup>:</sup> _RPi_  _RRj_  _RPi_  _RPj_ . Note however that we cannot reject a joint test of the six equalities simultaneously suggesting that the coefficients on intra-regional trade creation may not be statistically different from each other after all.

Interestingly the largest coefficients are found for imports of resource poor countries from resource rich countries. The coefficient when the importer is resource rich and the exporter is resource poor (the second row) is 0.84 and the coefficient when the importer is resource poor and the exporter is resource rich (the third row) is 1.40, and the difference is statistically significant as discussed above. This implies that intra-PAFTA trade when the importer is resource rich and the exporter is resource poor increased by 132 percent, whereas the increase in intra-PAFTA trade when the importer is resource poor and the exporter is resource rich increased by 305% . Thus the latter is more than two times larger.

The main prediction of Venables (2011) is that the resource rich countries are more likely to experience trade diversion. This prediction is supported by the data in MENA 14
- 8 -

The difference between CDP and GNP consists of net factor income payments. Consequently, the greater the change in share of factor income payments in the product, -he greater the difference in growth rate of the two aggregates for a given councry. It is probable that in the late 1970s and early 1980s the gap was appreciable and varied with the evolution of interest payments (and of income remittances of migrant workers who had remained residents of their country of origin).

Table 2 compares average annual growth rates of CDP and GNP calculated on the basis of the World Bank's World Tables. The absolute gap between the two rates exceeds 0.52 in only 9 cases out of 85 during the period 1970-81, and 15 cases out of 86 in 1974-81; it exceeds 1% in t.nly 3 cases and 5 cases, respectively, over these two periods. The difference is therefore less important than might have been supposed. This result is perhaps due to poor estimation of the trend of factor income payments.

The illustrative model was estimated using' the two definitions of product (cf. results, table 3, equations 1 and 2). The model explaining GDP growth is seen to be a little better than the model explaining GNP growth. This may result from the greater risk of error in GNP estimates due to poor knowledge of international factor income payments or to the fact that the independent variables are less well adapted to explanation of CNP growth than of CDP growth.

# 1.1.2 Data sources

Most of the studies use World Bank data to measure product. However, a few use IMF data (Fry and Lilien 1986, Kormendi and Meguire 1985, Landau 1986, Lanyi and Saracoglu 1983, Rana 1987) and others, United Nations data (Venieris and Gupta 1983). Some authors have also used the data of the project of international comparison of products on the basis of purchasing power parities (Landau 1983, based on Kravis 1979, and Ram 1986, based on Summers and Heston 1984). Finally, some studies do not specify the data source (cf. table 1, column 2).

The choice of source is not without importance for the measurement of growth, as is evident in various studies. This is shown by Ahmad and Kwon (1981) for the difference between IMF and World bank data, and Plane (1986) for the difference between World Bank and UNCTAD data. We have tried to assess the magnitude of the difference between the two rates calculated using World Bank and IMF statistics for GDP at market prices over the period 1970-81 (see table 2). The differences between these two rates are found to be greater and more frequent than the differences previously observed between GDP and GNP growth rates: over the period 1970-81 the absolute gap exceeds 0.5 in 14 cases out of 55 and 1Z in 9 cases; over the period 1974-81 it exceeds 0.52 in 18 cases out of 37 and 12 in 11 cases; in some countries (Honduras, Malaysia), it is substantial.
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# Table 5: Proportions of Enrollment Targets Achieved, By Mode and Income Level, Completed Industry VET Projects, 1963-86

|Income Level|Secondary|M<br>Non-formal|ode<br>Post-<br>Secondary|VET<br>Teacher<br>Training|TOTAL|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Low|.19|-0-|.64|1.05|.41|
|Lower-Mid|.93|.86|1.16|.88|.90|
|Upper-Mid|1.16|.99|.83|.43|1.09|
|Weighted<br>Means|1.08|.90|.91|.74|1.00|

These conclusions receive some support from data on the second criterion, overall ratings of implementation performance for components in different modes (Table 6). These ratings, which are averages of the subjective judgments made by different evaluators must be used with considerable caution, but may be considered indicative.
29 this data set by rnatching labour market outcomes with the characteristics of the individuals. For the time being, we just look at some outcomes and the frequency distributions of the given answers to get a hunch about the effectiveness of the various ALMP measures. Besides loans to start a business, intervention works (wage subsidies), public works and training measures for the unemployed, the job brokerage function of labour offices is also discussed. To generate the largest possible numbers of ALMP participants individuals who have been registered as unemployed in a labour office at least once between January 1990 and August 1994 were asked whether they at _any time_ after January 1990 had been or were involved in a scheme. In some instances this makes inferences more difficult.<sup>27</sup>

# Loans to start a business

Of those individuals who identified themselves as having registered at a labour office at least once between January 1990 and August 1994, 3.3.% had asked at any time after January 1990 for a start-up loan. Successful with their application were in turn 24.2%. Roughly 60% of those acquiring the loan had created a work place for themselves which still existed during the surveyed week, 31% had created such a work place, but it no longer existed while only 10% were unable to use the money for establishing work for themselves. Given the data, one evaluation criterion that can be used is the duration of a thus created work place. The mean duration of the observed _completed_ spells of scheme participants is 20 months. The government has set 24 months as the lower limit beyond which only 50% of the loan has to be repaid. The average duration of _all_ spells in the sample should be longer than 20 months and could be quite a lot longer as the sub-sample of the completed spells gives the sub-sample of all those who have "failed" in their business activities.<sup>28</sup> . Labour offices seem, therefore, to have been successful in their vetting of loan applications. Since there are probably only small displacement of output effects the quite impressive duration figures seem to indicate that start-up loans are a relatively efficient ALMP measure in Poland and maybe should be extended. One question which certainly still needs to be investigated is whether dead weight losses occur with the application of this measure. This is left to later work.

27The below presented results are not always statistically representative, though. They are just meant to give us a hunch about developments of Polish ALMPs.

281n our sample 18 out of 57 self-employed work places have been terminated. With 18 loans granted in 1990 in our sample, and assuming that some of the failures have occurred in subsequent years, this must mean that some of the in 1990 created businesses still existed in August 1994.
Japan is another Asian country that has taken strong measures towards vehicular emission control. In addition to various fiscal instruments, Japan has put in place tough regulatory standards. Its emission standards are clearly on par with standards adopted in Europe and the United States. There are two sets of standards: the first one aimed at reducing pollution from vehicles below 1250 Kg and the second for vehicles weighing more than 1250 Kg. Table 10 illustrates the differences in these two sets of standards. Japan’s Central Environmental Council (CEC) published its third report on “Future policy for motor vehicle exhaust emission reduction” in December of 1998. It called for a further strengthening of NOx and PM limits for diesel engines in two stages and led to 25-30 percent reduction in NOx emission and 28-35 percent reduction in PM emission from 2002-2004, depending on vehicle category. It required 70 percent reduction in HC and CO emissions (CONCAWE, 2006).

**Table 10: Japanese Emission Standards for Diesel Passenger Cars, g/km**

|**Vehicle Weight**|**Date**|**Test**|**CO**|**HC**|**NOx**|**PM**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**< 1250 kg***|2005<sup>b</sup>|JC08<sup>c</sup>|0.63|0.024<sup>d</sup><br>|0.14|0.013|
||2009||0.63|0.024<sup>d</sup>|0.08|0.005|
||2002<sup>a</sup><br>||0.63|0.12<br>|0.3|0.056|
|**> 1250 kg***|2005<sup>b</sup>|JC08<sup>c</sup>|0.63|0.024<sup>d</sup><br>|0.15|0.014|
||2009||0.63|0.024<sup>d</sup>|0.08|0.005|

* - equivalent inertia weight (EIW); vehicle weight of 1265 kg a - 2002.10 for domestic cars, 2004.09 for imports

b - full implementation by the end of 2005 c - full phase-in by 2011 d - non-methane hydrocarbons Source: CONCAWE, (2006), Diesenet (undated)

# **5. Fuel Quality Standards**

Fuel quality standards play a crucial role in protecting public health and the environment from transport sector emissions. It is often viewed as an important component of an overall plan to improve air quality. Cleaner fuels have an immediate impact on both new and existing vehicle fleets. There is a close relationship between fuel quality and 28