Private seed sales expanded to dominate markets for several field crops and to take a share of sales for other crops, as shown in Table 3.2. Most of the increase in private sales has been for varieties that private companies have introduced, so that private sales correlate strongly with technology transfer.

For wheat, despite subsidized competition from SOEs, private seed companies have introduced new varieties from CIMMYT and Europe, and more are in the pipeline. Recognizing that farmers multiply wheat seed for own use and sale to neighbors, one seed company manager described his plan to continuously introduce new varieties, staying ahead of mutating diseases and offering new varieties with attractive features (eg, a US durum wheat with low percent of yellow bellies). With farmers planting a million tons of wheat seed each year, even a small market share represents large sales. In 1994, private companies sold wheat seed at about double TIGEM seed and grain prices.

For selected crops, Table 3.3 shows seed production plans by type of firm in 1994. Numbers do not show market shares because firms do not follow these plans (eg, TIGEM is unlikely to more than double wheat seed production from 1993), seed may not all be sold, and some of what is sold may be exported. These are, however, the only numbers available to show market share. Subsidiaries of six foreign firms proposed to produce about half of the hybrid maize and sunflower seed. Most of the remaining hybrid maize and sunflower seed as well 98 percent of soy bean seed was to be produced by six joint venture firms. Unofficial estimates from the firms we interviewed suggest that market share for the largest company in maize is about 30 percent and in sunflower about 2530 percent. Competition appears strong in major seed markets; for example, the leading maize seed company reports that its market share is being eroded by smaller firms undercutting its price. Overall, the large number of companies in Turkey's seed industry favors competitive markets despite some tendency toward over-regulation (eg, continuing compulsory variety registration).

Seed Imports and Exports: Reforms lowering barriers to varietal introduction and to seed imports led to more imports for some crops, such as maize and sunflower. Soon, however, production expanded to take care of demand and then pushed into export markets as well (see Figures 3.1 and 3.2). From 1988 maize seed exports exceed imports; for sunflowers, exports exceed imports from 1990. Once reforms allowed seed technology to enter, Turkey has been able to exploit its comparative advantage in seeds based on climate, scientific skills, and low cost labor. Table 3.4 shows Turkey's exports and imports for all seeds. Chile, another early reformer, shows the same progression from maize seed imports, to local production, and then to exports.

Maize and sunflower seed imports in the early 1980s assisted introduction of new varieties, allowing farmers to adopt them before locally produced seed was available. During the 1960s, imports of Mexican wheat seed played a similar role, facilitating rapid expansion of area planted to new varieties. A recent study of maize yields for 50 countries over 25 years found strong correlation between yield increases and volume of seed imports (Pray and Echeverria 1992, pp 372373).

Considering the importance of imported seeds to introduce new varieties, Government efforts to discourage seed imports (see Section 2.1) may be more effective in slowing technology transfer than in protecting domestic seed producers. In the early 1 990s, Turkey has been importing seeds for _-15-_