increase savings in the face of future uncertainties (Gollier et al., 2000; Gollier and Treich, 2003).<sup>11</sup> A related value of information perspective arises from an assumption about exogenous trends in the future value of natural environments relative to the value of economically produced goods (Krutilla, 1967). The relative societal value of undeveloped natural environments, like marine resources, can be expected to rise in the future as they become scarcer, and as the willingness to pay for environmental services increases with income. These trends are buttressed by the comparatively low substitutability of natural environments in consumption relative to their use as inputs into production. For example, induced technology change can facilitate substitution away from costly mineral inputs. A related factor is that delaying the initiation of a project is not an irreversible decision, because production can be scaled up subsequently as conditions warrant. Under these circumstances, there is a positive value to waiting for more information (Arrow and Fischer (1974)).

Recent trends and projections for some key minerals prices are not inconsistent with this perspective. The prices for nickel, copper, and zinc do not show significant rises, past or projected, from the period 2014 to 2030 (see Figure 1). The same is true for the precious metal prices; gold and platinum in Figure 2, and silver in Figure 3, the price of which is projected to decline. Figure 4 shows a 10 year price history for cobalt. The price of cobalt at the time of this writing is marginally lower than 10 years ago. But the price rose dramatically from a decade low in January of 2016 to a decade high in March 2018 (see Figure 4). The dramatic price jump was stimulated by a perception in the market that the time had arrived for electric vehicles; and thus, that the derived demand for cobalt, which is used in lithium ion batteries, would significantly increase. Additionally, 50% of the terrestrial supply of cobalt is sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo -- a politically unstable country. However, in March 2018, Elon Musk announced that the batteries for his electric cars would not rely on cobalt. That news stimulated the precipitous decline in cobalt prices from their high point to the present period.<sup>12</sup> As has been discussed, the value of information can justify delaying the commitment of resources to development projects. However, delaying new investments is not always economically desirable. Even in the context of exogenous uncertainty, the value of investing in the present period may be large enough to offset the opportunity cost of lost information from taking current-period actions (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). For endogenous uncertainty, the opportunity cost generally runs in the opposite direction: information is revealed by taking action and observing the results (Adner and Levinthal, 2004). For example, the endogenous resolution of technical uncertainties could justify more rapid development of mineral resources (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994).<sup>13</sup>

> 11 Technically, this savings attitude requires a utility function with a particular relationship between third and second derivatives. In Gollier et al, 2000 and Gollier and Treich 2003, “prudence” must be greater than two times absolute risk aversion to give a precautionary delay.

> 12 See “How the cobalt market fell victim to the allure of electric cars”. Bloomberg News, March 1, 2019.

> 13 See Graham (2001) for additional factors that affect the value of information from taking versus deferring actions.

11