through early exploration and de-risking of geothermal resources. Kenya now has 534 MW of geothermal capacity—fully 43 percent of generation in 2017. However, it is KenGen (not GDC) that has been able to successfully leverage donor and government support, as well as its own funding, to make geothermal the dominant source of electricity in Kenya today, becoming, in the process, the largest developer of geothermal power in Africa and among the top 10 globally. The increased share of geothermal generation has displaced energy from thermal plants, and the significant reductions in fuel costs have been passed through to end users. Following the commissioning in 2015 of the latest large geothermal capacity of 280 MW at Olkaria, consumers saw a reduction in fuel costs of K Sh 4/kWh. Despite the August 2018 increase in retail tariffs, average tariffs have remained below where they were before the new geothermal capacity was commissioned. Kenya’s new National Geothermal Strategy recommends a central role for KenGen and a stronger role for the private sector as financier and partner in geothermal development.

At times of drought and other supply-side challenges, Emergency Power Plants (EPPs), too,have supplied power, under generation licenses from KenGen. In 2000–2001, Aggreko, Cummins, and Deutz supplied 99 MW in Nairobi. Between 2006 and 2016, Aggreko supplied capacity ranging from 30 MW to 290 MW from plants based at various times in Nairobi, Eldoret, and Muhoroni. After EPPs began to raise costs, drawing critique from various quarters, the government invited the Kenyan private sector to participate in the procurement of the EPPs, asking the Kenya Association of Manufacturers to chair an Emergency Power Steering Committee to manage stakeholder expectations. However, the recent boom in geothermal energy, as well as other renewable energy sources, has helped to mitigate the need for EPPs, and the country was able to meet demand during the drought of 2017 without procuring any EPPs.

# _3.1.2 Institutions_

Kenya has a reputation for comprehensive and technically adroit planning for the power sector. That reputation endured the transition from a traditional industry model to the more complex hybrid structure it now has. The 2006 Energy Act vests responsibility for power development planning in ERC. As a result, ERC has engaged in a rolling Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP). The LCPDP aims to enhance national power generation and supply by identifying new generation and supply sources, as well as new transmission infrastructure.

To fulfill its planning mandate, ERC set up multi-stakeholder steering and technical committees to develop the LCPDP. On the Technical Committee, ERC members hold the positions of chair and secretary, but the rest of the members are engineers and economists drawn from MoEP, KPLC, KenGen, KETRACO, GDC, REA, and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. The 20-year draft plans produced by the Technical Committee are reviewed by various actors before approval by the LCPDP Steering Committee—which comprises members from government and power subsector organizations convened by ERC; other key stakeholders (the Ministry of Devolution and Planning, the Kenya Investment Authority (KenInvest), the National Economic and Social Council, and the Kenya Private Sector Alliance)—and finally by the ERC commissioners, who adopt the plan as the official national update of the LCPDP. The rolling 20-year LCPDP is updated biennially, and a 5-year plan is conducted annually. ERC has also started developing 10-year plans. The most recent approved update of the plan is the 10 Year Power Sector Expansion Plan 2014–2024, prepared in June 2014. The rigor of Kenya’s planning framework has been instrumental in driving the country’s rapid capacity expansion. It is reflected in a high score on the planning index detailed in table 2.

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