# **2 Context**

In the years before the political events of August 2021, Afghanistan had been experiencing significant compounding challenges. A drought in 2018 was the worst the country had experienced in over a decade, with almost half of the population reporting that their income was significantly affected (FAO, 2019; FSAC, 2018). This was followed by dry conditions in 2020 and another devastating drought in 2021 that created a significant deficit of wheat production and endangered the lives of more than 3 million livestock due to lack of water (IFRC, 2021; ReliefWeb, 2022). During the same period, political tensions between the Afghan government and the Taliban remained high, manifesting themselves through conflict and insecurity, with the number of battle-related deaths more than doubling in 2021 compared to the 2018–2020 period (Figure II).<sup>7</sup> This political instability ultimately culminated in the August 2021 with the regime change. The COVID-19 pandemic added fuel to the fire, seeing the economy contract by 6% in 2020 (Sahin & Tzannatos, 2021), with many livelihoods deeply impacted—either directly through illness and death of breadwinners, or indirectly through lockdowns and ensuing macroeconomic deterioration. The Balkh province, where the study was conducted, was among the provinces most severely affected by both the 2018 and 2020 droughts (FSAC, 2018; IFRC, 2021). At the same time, although Balkh was relatively stable with respect to the rest of the country during the TUP intervention implementation period (2016/2017), the security situation quickly worsened, with Balkh experiencing more casualties per 100,000 people than the national average during the 2020–2021 period (Figure III).<sup>8,9</sup> These factors were compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, creating an even more fragile and difficult context for all households in the study regions. Afghanistan was already a fragile setting, ranked as the least peaceful of 163 countries in 2019 (Institute for Economics and Peace (2019)).

Consistent with the simultaneous significant shocks affecting the economic opportunities, productivity, health and security of Afghans, we observe sizeable decreases from midline to endline across multiple outcomes in the control group and among non-UP households (Figure IV). Food consumption among UP control households decreased by 27% between July 2018 and June 2021, while non-UP households faced an even larger reduction of 33%. Food security indicators deteriorated across the board. The proportion of non-UP households in which adults skipped or cut any meals in the past month increased from 33% to 68%. For UP households this increased from 55% to 83%. Income and revenues across all sources measured decreased by 31% for UP control households and by 34% for non-UP households. 7Battle-related casualties include injuries or fatalities on the battlefield. A battle is “a violent interaction between two politically organized armed groups at a particular time and location”. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) (2021).

> 8See Figure I for a timeline of the intervention, data collection and significant events.

> 9All casualties include battle-related injuries and fatalities (i.e., on the battlefield) as well as casualties and fatalities off the battlefield, such as drone strikes, suicide bombings, and other violence against civilians. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) (2021).

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