Table A.8: OLS analysis, 1995‐2015, Project Outcome (scale 1‐6 as independent variable) and ERR discrepancy between PAD and ICR as explanatory variables (Model 3)

||(1)<br>1‐6 Rating|(2)<br>1‐6 Rating|(3)<br>1‐6 Rating|(4)<br>1‐6 Rating|(5)<br>1‐6 Rating|(6)<br>1‐6 Rating|(7)<br>1‐6 Rating|(8)<br>1‐6 Rating|(9)<br>1‐6 Rating|(10)<br>1‐6 Rating|(11)<br>1‐6 Rating|(12)<br>1‐6 Rating|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|GDP PC growth|0.0211***<br>(3.39)|0.0269**<br>(2.12)|0.0244*<br>(1.91)|0.0282**<br>(2.22)|0.0357***<br>(2.68)|0.0246*<br>(1.96)|0.0232*<br>(1.84)|0.0226*<br>(1.79)|0.0269**<br>(2.09)|0.0319**<br>(2.48)|0.0328**<br>(2.40)|0.0257**<br>(1.99)|
|CPIA rating|0.367***<br>(8.86)|0.199**<br>(2.54)|0.196**<br>(2.49)|0.183**<br>(2.29)|0.177**<br>(2.09)|0.191**<br>(2.46)|0.182**<br>(2.33)|0.0975<br>(1.19)|0.180**<br>(2.05)|0.132<br>(1.58)|0.170*<br>(1.68)|0.118<br>(1.28)|
|CPIA scale dummy|‐0.0972<br>(‐1.22)|‐0.152<br>(‐1.05)|‐0.158<br>(‐1.10)|‐0.138<br>(‐0.96)|‐0.0494<br>(‐0.32)|‐0.198<br>(‐1.39)|‐0.163<br>(‐1.14)|‐0.159<br>(‐1.11)|‐0.142<br>(‐0.51)|‐0.176<br>(‐1.18)|‐0.171<br>(‐0.56)|‐0.150<br>(‐0.52)|
|Exit year sequence|‐0.0291***<br>(‐5.52)|‐0.0223*<br>(‐1.66)|‐0.0237*<br>(‐1.77)|‐0.0195<br>(‐1.43)|‐0.0245<br>(‐1.61)|‐0.0229*<br>(‐1.72)|‐0.0157<br>(‐1.17)|‐0.0166<br>(‐1.24)|‐0.0120<br>(‐0.86)|‐0.0159<br>(‐1.16)|‐0.00416<br>(‐0.24)|‐0.00659<br>(‐0.45)|
|East Asia and Pacific|0.0957<br>(1.39)|0.105<br>(1.02)|0.114<br>(1.10)|0.115<br>(1.11)|0.0179<br>(0.16)|0.111<br>(1.09)|0.121<br>(1.18)|0.0998<br>(0.97)|‐0.00529<br>(‐0.05)|0.0800<br>(0.75)|‐0.0656<br>(‐0.53)|0.0140<br>(0.13)|
|Africa|‐0.169***|‐0.0395|0.00151|‐0.0185|0.00287|‐0.00980|0.00133|‐0.00850|‐0.0433|‐0.0761|0.0973|‐0.00670|
||(‐2.67)|(‐0.37)|(0.01)|(‐0.17)|(0.02)|(‐0.09)|(0.01)|(‐0.08)|(‐0.38)|(‐0.69)|(0.71)|(‐0.06)|
|East Europe and Central Asia|0.0806<br>(1.18)|0.132<br>(1.20)|0.181<br>(1.59)|0.141<br>(1.28)|0.0660<br>(0.54)|0.193*<br>(1.76)|0.205*<br>(1.85)|0.141<br>(1.30)|0.0833<br>(0.74)|0.147<br>(1.31)|0.0733<br>(0.55)|0.157<br>(1.34)|
|Latin America & Caribbean|0.0758|0.183*|0.200*|0.187*|0.225*|0.184*|0.201*|0.234**|0.116|0.200*|0.149|0.128|
||(1.13)|(1.66)|(1.80)|(1.70)|(1.83)|(1.68)|(1.83)|(2.12)|(0.96)|(1.76)|(1.09)|(1.06)|
|Middle East & North Africa|‐0.132|0.156|0.193|0.179|0.150|0.183|0.184|0.151|0.0364|0.167|0.108|0.0959|
||(‐1.56)|(1.15)|(1.41)|(1.31)|(1.00)|(1.37)|(1.37)|(1.12)|(0.25)|(1.19)|(0.66)|(0.65)|
|IEG evaluation method (PPAR=1)|‐0.0274<br>(‐0.56)|0.0797<br>(0.80)|0.0693<br>(0.70)|0.0827<br>(0.83)|0.0458<br>(0.43)|0.0585<br>(0.60)|0.0757<br>(0.77)|0.0713<br>(0.72)|0.162<br>(1.34)|0.189*<br>(1.77)|0.115<br>(0.86)|0.152<br>(1.27)|
|Over estimation of ERR in PAD (1 if PAD ERR>ICR ERR)||‐0.430***<br>(‐6.98)|‐0.430***<br>(‐6.99)|‐0.424***<br>(‐6.87)|‐0.444***<br>(‐6.64)|‐0.415***<br>(‐6.80)|‐0.418***<br>(‐6.83)|‐0.430***<br>(‐7.03)|‐0.418***<br>(‐6.46)|‐0.426***<br>(‐6.70)|‐0.410***<br>(‐5.74)|‐0.400***<br>(‐6.18)|
|ERR difference between PAD & ICR, log (%)||‐0.0723***<br>(‐3.15)|‐0.0690***<br>(‐3.00)|‐0.0726***<br>(‐3.17)|‐0.104***<br>(‐4.19)|‐0.0660***<br>(‐2.90)|‐0.0686***<br>(‐3.01)|‐0.0674***<br>(‐2.96)|‐0.0432*<br>(‐1.86)|‐0.0613***<br>(‐2.64)|‐0.0773***<br>(‐3.02)|‐0.0413*<br>(‐1.78)|
|Log net commit. (m$)|||0.0537*<br>(1.70)||||||||‐0.0210<br>(‐0.39)|‐0.0375<br>(‐0.78)|
|Project length||||‐0.0218<br>(‐1.25)|||||||0.000212<br>(0.01)|‐0.0139<br>(‐0.79)|
|TTL performance|||||0.145***<br>(3.51)||||||0.176***<br>(3.71)||
|Preparation cost over commit, %||||||‐0.0595***|||||‐0.0663***|‐0.0623***|
|||||||(‐4.54)|||||(‐3.10)|(‐3.15)|
|Supervision cost over commit, %|||||||‐0.0417***||||0.0121|‐0.00868|
||||||||(‐3.66)||||(0.55)|(‐0.45)|
|Potential prob. dummy (1=if raised in the 1rst half of the proj.)||||||||‐0.316***|||‐0.0834|‐0.100|
|||||||||(‐4.11)|||(‐0.86)|(‐1.16)|
|Actual prob. dummy (1=if raised in the 1rst half of the proj.)|||||||||‐0.450***||‐0.411***|‐0.390***|
||||||||||(‐6.64)||(‐5.12)|(‐5.39)|
|Restructuring dummy (1=if restricted in the 1rst half of the proj)||||||||||‐0110|‐00555|‐00192|
|.||||||||||.<br>(‐0.83)|.<br>(‐0.38)|.<br>(‐0.14)|
|Observations|3975|1112|1112|1112|895|1112|1112|1111|885|1028|714|882|
|R squared|0.104|0.172|0.174|0.173|0.205|0.188|0.182|0.185|0.247|0.177|0.298|0.269|
|<br>Adjusted R‐squared|0.091|0.130|0.131|0.130|0.156|0.146|0.140|0.143|0.198|0.130|0.235|0.214|
|Sector dummies<br>St lti id di|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|
|ecor x evauaon pero ummes<br>Sector x approval period dummies|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|

Note: t statistics in parentheses, * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 34