rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
<!-- Start of picture text --> Fig. S1.5b: Residuals Interacted w/ Time Trend, NO2 at ITO<br>2004-2006<br>Source: Based on data described in the text<br>Table S1.1 Air Quality Standards<br>Pollutant Time Period WHO Standard CPCB Standard<br>(in micro grams per cubic meter)<br>NO2 24 Hour Mean Not Specified 80 1<br>CO 8 Hour Mean 10000 2000 2<br>PM2.5 24 Hour Mean 25 3 60 1<br>SO2 24 Hour Mean 20 80 1<br>O3 8 Hour Mean 100 100<br>Source: CPCB 2011, WHO 2006 and WHO 2000<br>1. Allowed to exceed limit 2 percent of the time (7.3 days a year),<br>but not on consecutive days.<br>2. Allowed to exceed limit 2 percent of the time (22 8-hour blocks a year),<br>2.5<br>2<br>1.5<br>1<br>.5<br>0<br>-.5<br>-1<br>-1.5<br>-2<br>-2.5<br>-3<br>-3.5<br>-4<br>-4.5<br>-5<br>1Jan2004 20Feb2004 10Apr2004 30May2004 19Jul2004 7Sep2004 27Oct2004 16Dec2004 4Feb2005 26Mar2005 15May2005 4Jul2005 23Aug2005 12Oct2005 1Dec2005 20Jan2006 11Mar2006 30Apr2006 19Jun2006 8Aug2006 27Sep2006 16Nov2006 5Jan2007<br><!-- End of picture text --> 57
# **References**

ACAPS (2022). Lake Chad Basin: Impact of extreme weather and climate events on livelihoods and food security, ACAPS. URL: <u>https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/20220816_acaps_thematic_report_globa l_analysis_team_lake_chad_basin_0.pdf</u> ACLED (2013). _Country Report: Nigeria_ , The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project - - - (ACLED). URL: https://acleddata.com/wp <u>content/uploads/2013/04/ACLED Country</u> - <u>Report_Nigeria_April 2013.pdf</u> ACLED (2019). _The New Normal: Continuity and Boko Haram’s Violence in North East Nigeria_ , The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). URL: <u>https://acleddata.com/2019/02/11/the-new-normal-continuity-and-boko-harams-violence-innorth-east-nigeria/</u> Agbonifo, J. U. (2020). The Plight of IDP Women: A Gender and Intersectional Analysis of the Experiences of Internally Displaced Women in IDP Camps Borno Nigeria. Social Justice Perspectives (SJP), International Institute of Social Studies. URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2105/561 <u>37</u> Agwu, J., and Okhimamwe, A. A. (2009). Gender and climate change in Nigeria. Lagos, Nigeria: Heinrich Böll Stiftung (HBS). URL: <u>https://ng.boell.org/sites/default/files/uploads/2013/10/gender_climate_change_in_nigeria.pdf</u> Angrist, J. D., and Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: an empiricist’s companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Angrist, J. D., and Pischke, J.-S. (2014). Mastering ’metrics: The path from cause to effect. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Baliki, G., Brück, T., and W. Stojetz (2018). _Strengthening Food Security in Acute Crisis Settings: First Insights from North-east Nigeria._ ISDC Policy Brief. ISDC - International Security and Development Center: Berlin, Germany. URL: https://isdc.org/publications/strengthening-food-security-in- <u>acute- crisis-settings-first-insights-from-north-east-nigeria/</u> Bastia, T. (2014). Intersectionality, migration and development. _Progress in Development Studies, 14(3),_ 237-248. URL: <u><mark>https://doi.org/10.1177/1464993414521330</mark></u> BBC (2016, November 24th). _Who are Nigeria’s Boko Haram Islamist Group?_ . BBC. URL: <u>https://www.bbc.com/ news/world-africa-13809501</u> Bertoni, E., Di Maio, M., Molini, V., & Nistico, R. (2019). Education is forbidden: The effect of the Boko Haram conflict on education in North-East Nigeria. Journal of Development Economics, 141, 102249. URL: <u>https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387818302505</u> <mark>Bohnet, H., Cottier, F., and Hug, S. (2018). Conflict-induced IDPs and the Spread of Conflict.</mark> _<mark>Journal of Conflict Resolution</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>62</mark>_ <mark>(4), 691-716. URL:</mark> <u><mark>https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0022002716665209</mark></u> 17
# Table of Contents'

|A. OVERVIEW|I|
|---|---|
|B. GROWTH AND TRADE|6|
|Global Factor Supplies|6|
|Trade Dependence Profiles for Central America|7|
|Changing Patterns of Trade in Labor-intensive Manufactures|8|
|Heckscher-Ohlin Simulations|9|
|Growth and Exports of Labor-intensive Manufactiures|11|
|C. CHALLENGES TO CENTRAL AMERICAN GROWTH|13|
|Asian and Mexican Competition in the U.S. Market|13|
|Short Run Elasticity Computations of the Effects of NAFTA|14|
|Estimates Allowing for the Redirection of Mexican Output|15|
|Destination of Central American Exports|17|
|Locational Advantages of Central America|18|
|Wages as a Source of Comparative Advantage|21|
|Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty|22|

# FIGURES AND TABLES

This working papcr is a sclf-standing summary of a more extensive report (of the same title) commissioncd by LA2CO and completed in August 1994.
empirical insight in the extent to which food price seasonality transmits into seasonality in food consumption. With the notable exception of Dercon and Krishnan (2000) for Ethiopia, there remains little systematic information on the magnitude of these links.

The empirical application is to Tanzania, which provides a good backdrop to study seasonality in prices and consumption.<sup>4</sup> It covers a wide array of agro‐ecological settings and cropping systems and staples (maize and rice) still make up a sizeable share of food consumption (33 percent in rural and 28.5 percent in urban areas). Seasonality in maize and rice prices is estimated from 19 years of monthly prices collected during 1995 and 2013 from 20 regional markets across Tanzania. To estimate seasonality in consumption, three waves of a nationally representative household consumption panel survey are used. The surveys were conducted throughout the year on each occasion starting in 2008‐09 and subsequently in 2010‐11 and 2012‐13. The data enabled identification of the staple price effects on food consumption and simulation of the extent of price induced seasonality in calorie consumption, alongside a household fixed effect estimation strategy and controlling for other consumption seasonal factors.

The results show that the seasonal gap in staple prices is substantial in Tanzania, though variable across markets. It is almost twice as high for maize (27 percent, averaging across districts), as for rice (15 percent). It is also 2.5 to three times more than the gap observed in reference markets (10.7 percent in the South African Futures Exchange market for white maize; and 5 percent broken rice in Bangkok), suggesting substantial excess seasonality. The contribution of seasonality to overall price volatility is limited (13.1 percent for maize and 7.1 percent for rice). Price induced seasonality in caloric intake is sizeable among poor urban households and rural net food sellers (around 10 percent). No effects were discerned among net food buyers.

In what follows, section two shows how commonly used methods of estimating seasonality can yield substantial upward bias on short samples and how this can be reduced by modeling

> 4 Baffes, Kshirsagar and Mitchell (2015) provide an analysis of maize price formation in Tanzania.

4
82

# Vm. ALTERNATIVE FUELS AND ADDITIVES

Alternative fuels include methanol (made from natural gas, coal or biomass) ethanol (made from grain), vegetable oils, compressed natural gas (CNG) mainly composed of methane, liquefied petrolem gas (LPG) composed of propane, butane, electricity, hydrogen, synthetic liquid fuels derived from hydrogenation of coal, and reformulated gasoline and diesel, including oxygenated blends. Additives (like lead compounds in gasoline) are introduced in small quantities to improve storage, distribution, or performance characteristics of fuel.

The characteristics of alternative fuels vary significantly with respect to engine design and performance and exhaust pollution. Hydrogen, methane and methanol burn efficiently and are intrinsically low polluting fuels. Hydrogen, furthermore, does not produce CO, as a product of combustion and therefore does not contribute to the greenhouse effect. Others, such as vegetable oils, have poorer combustion quality compared to petrochemical fuels and their emissions must be carefully controlled. It appears likely that the use of fuels derived from renewable plant and biomass sources will remain confined largely to regions where they have proven to be economically competitive; environmental gains from the use of such fuels will remain a secondary objective. Problems with storing hydrogen make it difficult to use it as a fuel for road vehicles. Its production requires electricity, and if this is generated from fossil fuels the use of hydrogen as a vehicle fuel would probably increase overall air pollution [ECMT 1990]. Environmental assessment of alternative fuels should not be based solely on vehicle end-use emission characteristics but should account for pollutant emissions associated with the production, storage, and distribution of these fuels.

Partly in response to environmental pressures to eliminate lead in gasoline and partly in response to energy needs, increasing amounts of alcohols and ethers are being used either as high octane blending components or as substitutes for gasoline. Other likely changes will involve catalytic processing (cat cracking) of heavier crude and a decline in residual fuel demand. These changes could significantly influence vehicle emission characteristics.

# **Reformulated and Blend Fuels**

# **Gasoline**

Lead is the cheapest means of improving the octane level of gasoline and has been used
15 provide two independent identification devices to estimate the hypothetical treaty-shopping cost parameter. By combining this estimate with the data, we delineate the implications of treaty-shopping for investment and government revenue in source countries.

# **A.   Estimation of Total Effects**

Direct evidence on the effect of DTT builds on the following system of equations � where Y�,� ��FDI�,�, Tax�,�� is a vector including the logarithm of the aggregate stock of foreign direct investment in country s and year t, FDI�,� and the logarithm of the aggregate corporate income tax revenue in country s and year t, Tax�,�. The indicator vector variable DTT�,� equals one for country s if a treaty with Mauritius is effective in year t and zero otherwise. We include country-specific fixed effects μ� ��μ���,�, μ���,�� to account for differences in FDI and tax revenue that exist independent from the tax treaty framework. Accordingly, the coefficient vector β ��β���, β���� measures the relative change in FDI and the relative change in tax revenue, following treaty conclusion with Mauritius. These DD estimates of the treatment effect build on the premise that treated and control group would have moved in the same direction in the absence of an intervention; the common-trend assumption (see Angrist and Pischke, 2009). While there is no test to verify this assumption formally, we review whether the experimental groups followed similar trajectories before treaty-conclusion.

We include a broad set of control variables (X) that may affect FDI and tax revenues, drawing on the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) and the IMF’s WEO database. Specifically, we control for the magnitude of international trade, by including the log of imports and exports, market size and potential demand in source countries, including GDP and GDP per capita, GDP growth, and measures to control for the overall governance environment.<sup>31</sup> To account for resource prices, we include the price of oil, agricultural raw material, and a metal price index. Finally, we include the lagged value of FDI in the FDI equation. Due to the long timeframe analyzed in these equations, we are less concerned about bias introduced through the dynamic structure of one equation (Nickel, 1970). However, we further examine the issue as part of our robustness checks by substituting the stock of FDI with FDI inflows, so that the dynamic nature of the equation is removed.

Since disturbance terms in the FDI and tax revenue equation are potentially correlated, we estimate the system of equations in a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) framework (see Zellner, 1962; Zellner and Huang, 1962; and Zellner, 1963). Specifically, we first estimate system (9) equation-by-equation to obtain estimates of the cross-equation correlation of residuals. Subsequently, we use this information to compute the system’s covariance matrix and re-estimate the equations jointly in a generalized least squares approach. We thus improve estimation efficiency over the simpler OLS. We report Newey-West type standard 31 Control of corruption and governance effectiveness.
Drelichman, Mauricio and Hans-Joachim Voth (2011). Serial Defaults, Serial Profits: Returns to Sovereign Lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566–1600. _Explorations in Economic History_ , 48(1), 1- 19.

Duffie, Darrell (2011). _Measuring Corporate Default Risk_ . Oxford: Oxford University Press Duffie, Darrell, Lasse Pedersen, and Kenneth Singleton (2003). Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt, _Journal of Finance_ , 58(1), 119-159.

Eaton, Jonathan, and Mark Gersovitz (1981). Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. _Review of Economic Studies_ , 48(2), 289-309.

- Edelstein, Michael (1982). _Overseas Investment in the Age of High Imperialism: The United Kingdom, 1850-1914_ . New York: Columbia University Press.

Eichengreen, Barry and Richard Portes (1988). Foreign Lending in the Interwar Years: The Bondholders’ Perspective. CEPR Discussion Paper No 273.

Eichengreen, Barry and Richard Portes (1991). After the Deluge: Default, Negotiation, and Readjustment during the Interwar Years. In: Eichengreen, Barry and Peter H. Lindert, _The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective_ . Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 12-47.

Erce, Aitor and Enrico Mallucci (2018). Selective Sovereign Defaults. International Finance Discussion Papers 1239, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Ellison, Martin and Andrew Scott (2020). Managing the UK National Debt 1694–2018. _American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics_ 12 (3): 227-57.

Esteves, Rui (2013). The bondholder, the sovereign, and the banker: sovereign debt and bondholders' protection before 1914. _European Review of Economic History_ , 17(4), 389–407.

Fang, Chuck, Julian Schumacher, and Christoph Trebesch (2020). Restructuring sovereign bonds: holdouts, haircuts and the effectiveness of CACs. ECB Working Paper No 2366.

Ferguson, Niall, and Moritz Schularick (2006). The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880–1913. _Journal of Economic History_ , 66(2), 283-312.

Gabaix, Xavier (2012). Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in MacroFinance. _Quarterly Journal of Economics,_ 127(2), 645-700.

- Gennaioli, Nicola and Andrei Shleifer (2018) _A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility,_ Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Giesecke, Kay, Francis A. Longstaff, Stephen Schaefer, and Ilya Strebulaev (2011). Corporate Bond Default Risk: A 150-year Perspective. _Journal of Financial Economics_ , 102(2), 233-250.

- Goetzmann, William N. and Andrey D. Ukhov (2006). British Investment Overseas 1870-1913: A Modern Portfolio Theory Approach. _Review of Finance_ , 10(2), 261-300.

46
Policy Research Working Paper 4992

# **Abstract**

This paper is based on large-scale surveys of formal and informal small businesses in South Africa, including questions about their experiences and perceptions about tax compliance, tax morale, and related variables. The survey findings suggest that formalization is more likely to take place in urban areas, involving relatively larger firms, and those who already use proper bookkeeping. Informal firms who said they were likely to register for tax in the near future were more likely than other informal firms to report higher satisfaction with government services, and to believe most businesses pay their taxes. The most-cited advantages of being registered for tax included better access to government services, better access to financing, and better opportunities for growth.

This paper—a product of the Regulatory Simplification Unit, Investment Climate Department—is part of a larger effort in the department to reduce unnecessary tax compliance costs on businesses. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at jcoolidge@worldbank.org _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
**Table 1**

Share of economic activity by calibration model sample (Year 2018)

|**Economic activity**|**PY**|**Firms**|**Electricity**<br>**Expendi-**<br>**ture**|**Fuel**<br>**Expen-**<br>**diture**|**Total**<br>**emis-**<br>**sions**|**Electricity**<br>**emissions**|**Fuel**<br>**emis-**<br>**sions**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Agriculture|66.7%|8.4%|62.4%|45.0%|73.3%|88.3%|66.5%|
|Manuf.-Textiles|28.9%|12.0%|60.7%|19.2%|53.0%|79.9%|26.0%|
|Manuf.-Apparel|24.0%|12.7%|73.7%|50.1%|92.7%|97.2%|66.7%|
|Manuf.-Editing and recording|71.5%|14.6%|58.4%|50.2%|74.0%|76.9%|66.7%|
|Manuf.-Chemicals|70.1%|17.5%|65.9%|60.1%|91.1%|95.5%|87.0%|
|Manuf.-Plastics|68.3%|30.6%|72.7%|58.5%|92.3%|95.9%|77.1%|
|Manuf.-Cement|75.5%|22.4%|73.7%|64.8%|86.5%|97.3%|85.7%|
|Manuf.-Metal products|90.0%|11.8%|40.3%|41.7%|54.5%|54.1%|55.7%|
|Manuf.-Machinery|23.6%|13.8%|44.6%|24.7%|45.0%|57.7%|32.6%|
|Manuf.-Others|57.3%|11.7%|61.0%|28.2%|66.4%|80.6%|37.3%|
|Water Distribution|33.7%|9.6%|61.5%|15.5%|78.1%|80.6%|20.2%|
|Construction|72.1%|5.6%|34.3%|31.0%|59.6%|62.8%|57.0%|
|Vehicle/fuel sales|75.5%|10.7%|52.8%|46.6%|77.8%|84.4%|74.1%|
|Wholesale|53.2%|11.5%|57.4%|50.9%|87.4%|91.9%|81.0%|
|Retail|50.7%|10.9%|57.9%|30.9%|90.9%|92.7%|49.2%|
|Land transport|27.6%|5.6%|38.2%|24.3%|46.1%|70.8%|46.0%|
|Water transport|40.3%|8.2%|51.7%|47.5%|88.3%|96.3%|88.1%|
|Air transport|7.1%|5.5%|50.6%|9.6%|18.1%|94.6%|17.8%|
|Storage/warehouse|47.9%|10.1%|46.8%|6.7%|13.6%|86.8%|12.4%|
|Postal services|44.7%|12.5%|44.4%|39.2%|82.5%|84.4%|74.2%|
|**Total (2018)**|31.6%|5.3%|8.8%|39.9%|27.6%|13.4%|42.0%|

Note: This table reports the share of economic activity attributed to the calibration sample for those industries with only positive output elasticities of factor inputs and with an ISIC sector code below or equal to 64. Among the sectors omitted are financial services, real estate services, professional services, public administration, education services, health services, social services, arts and entertainment, and private home services. The economic activity variables considered from left to right are: value added (PY), number of firms, electricity expenditure, fuel expenditure, total emissions, electricity emissions, and fuel emissions.

18
to evolve from a paper-based business registry to a one-stop, automated, web-enabled registry capable of delivering products and services online via transactions involving authenticated users and documents. Our tests show that business registry modernization (often a component of broader private sector reforms) has a positive impact not only on the ease of creating a business, but also on new business registration. Overall, the data show that a quick, efficient and cost-effective business registration process is critical to fostering formal sector entrepreneurship.

# **2. Methodology overview**

The WBGES aims to understand the dynamics of private enterprises around the world through the collection of data on business creation at the international level that can be compared across heterogeneous legal, economic, and political systems. In order to make data comparable, the WBGES strives to define a unit of measurement, source of information, and concept of entrepreneurship applicable and available among the diverse countries surveyed. The definition of entrepreneurship used in the survey limits findings to the _formal sector._ This is because of the difficulties of quantifying the number of firms that compose the informal sector, and is no reflection on its relevance for developing economies. Moreover, previous literature highlights the potential advantages of formal sector participation, including police and judicial protection (and less vulnerability to corruption and the demand for bribes), access to formal credit institutions, the ability to use formal labor contracts, and greater access to foreign markets. Additionally, some firms that choose to stay informal might be unable to realize their full growth potential.

The WBGES data on formal business creation permit the study of regulatory, political, and macroeconomic institutional changes on entrepreneurship. The data also facilitate the analysis of the growth of the formal private sector, relative to the informal sector, and the identification of factors that encourage firms to begin operations in or transition to the formal sector.

3
# **(a)                                                     (b)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Bolivia Peru<br>Potential dried coca leaf production and prices Potential dried coca leaf production and prices<br>100000 6 250000 3.5<br>90000 3<br>80000 5 200000<br>70000 4 2.5<br>60000 150000 2<br>50000 3<br>40000 100000 1.5<br>30000 2 1<br>20000 1 50000 0.5<br>10000<br>0 0 0 0<br> Source: UNODC Source: UNODC<br>1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005<br>US$ / kg. US$/ kg.<br>potential prod. (MT) potential prod. (MT)<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: UNODC

**Figure 5**

53