Table A.9: Logit analysis, 1995‐2015, Project Outcome (Dummy for Successful Outcome as independent variable) and ERR discrepancy between PAD and ICR as one of explanatory variables (Model 3)

||(1)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(2)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(3)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(4)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(5)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(6)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(7)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(8)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(9)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(10)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(11)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(12)<br><br>Suc/Unsuc|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|GDP PC growth|0.0418***<br>(2.98)|0.0784**<br>(2.04)|0.0778**<br>(2.02)|0.0825**<br>(2.14)|0.0958**<br>(2.22)|0.0748*<br>(1.94)|0.0721*<br>(1.87)|0.0672*<br>(1.73)|0.0892**<br>(2.01)|0.0959**<br>(2.41)|0.0961*<br>(1.88)|0.0930**<br>(2.03)|
|CPIA rating|0.486***|0.181|0.181|0.144|0.0962|0.175|0.162|‐0.0855|0.170|‐0.0187|0.202|0.0246|
||(5.59)|(0.82)|(0.82)|(0.65)|(0.38)|(0.79)|(0.73)|(‐0.37)|(0.60)|(‐0.08)|(0.58)|(0.08)|
|CPIA scale dummy|‐0.105|‐0.492|‐0.493|‐0.443|‐0.395|‐0.602|‐0.514|‐0.457|‐0.788|‐0.636|‐0.831|‐0.826|
||(‐0.66)|(‐1.22)|(‐1.23)|(‐1.10)|(‐0.86)|(‐1.47)|(‐1.27)|(‐1.13)|(‐0.92)|(‐1.53)|(‐0.84)|(‐0.88)|
|Exit year sequence|‐0.0232**|0.0370|0.0367|0.0458|0.0377|0.0367|0.0481|0.0593|0.0862*|0.0583|0.115**|0.106**|
||(‐2.18)|(0.98)|(0.97)|(1.18)|(0.83)|(0.96)|(1.25)|(1.51)|(1.92)|(1.48)|(1.97)|(2.16)|
|East Asia and Pacific|0.145|0.0493|0.0527|0.0701|‐0.0531|0.0569|0.0865|0.0359|‐0.277|‐0.0189|‐0.304|‐0.303|
||(0.99)|(0.16)|(0.18)|(0.23)|(‐0.15)|(0.19)|(0.29)|(0.12)|(‐0.77)|(‐0.06)|(‐0.73)|(‐0.82)|
|Africa|‐0.353***|‐0.373|‐0.364|‐0.310|‐0.347|‐0.334|‐0.319|‐0.303|‐0.483|‐0.536*|‐0.281|‐0.489|
||(‐2.76)|(‐1.28)|(‐1.22)|(‐1.05)|(‐1.03)|(‐1.14)|(‐1.09)|(‐1.03)|(‐1.34)|(‐1.75)|(‐0.62)|(‐1.27)|
|East Europe and Central Asia|0.137<br>(0.95)|0.0417<br>(0.13)|0.0506<br>(0.16)|0.0734<br>(0.24)|0.0835<br>(0.23)|0.117<br>(0.37)|0.135<br>(0.43)|0.0656<br>(0.21)|‐0.0456<br>(‐0.12)|0.0666<br>(0.20)|‐0.0918<br>(‐0.21)|‐0.0161<br>(‐0.04)|
|Latin America & Caribbean|0.209<br>(1.48)|0.143<br>(0.46)|0.148<br>(0.47)|0.146<br>(0.47)|0.457<br>(1.24)|0.137<br>(0.44)|0.165<br>(0.53)|0.252<br>(0.80)|‐0.0270<br>(‐0.07)|0.200<br>(0.60)|0.140<br>(0.30)|‐0.116<br>(‐0.29)|
|Middle East & North Africa|‐0.235<br>(‐1.39)|0.202<br>(0.53)|0.210<br>(0.55)|0.267<br>(0.70)|0.173<br>(0.40)|0.241<br>(0.63)|0.239<br>(0.63)|0.203<br>(0.53)|‐0.0189<br>(‐0.04)|0.238<br>(0.59)|0.0451<br>(0.08)|0.0187<br>(0.04)|
|IEG evaluation method (PPAR=1)|‐0.0816<br>(‐0.80)|0.193<br>(0.67)|0.192<br>(0.67)|0.200<br>(0.70)|0.144<br>(0.44)|0.171<br>(0.59)|0.202<br>(0.70)|0.166<br>(0.57)|0.350<br>(0.83)|0.427<br>(1.33)|0.119<br>(0.25)|0.304<br>(0.71)|
|Over estimation of ERR in PAD (1 if PAD ERR>ICR ERR)||‐1.192***<br>(‐6.25)|‐1.192***<br>(‐6.25)|‐1.181***<br>(‐6.18)|‐1.326***<br>(‐5.86)|‐1.174***<br>(‐6.12)|‐1.178***<br>(‐6.16)|‐1.208***<br>(‐6.29)|‐1.282***<br>(‐5.68)|‐1.193***<br>(‐6.00)|‐1.391***<br>(‐5.11)|‐1.278***<br>(‐5.52)|
|ERR difference between PAD & ICR, log (%)||‐0.284***<br>(‐3.40)|‐0.283***<br>(‐3.38)|‐0.285***<br>(‐3.41)|‐0.417***<br>(‐4.00)|‐0.267***<br>(‐3.21)|‐0.275***<br>(‐3.31)|‐0.268***<br>(‐3.22)|‐0.192**<br>(‐2.08)|‐0.245***<br>(‐2.92)|‐0.311***<br>(‐2.59)|‐0.198**<br>(‐2.10)|
|Log net commit. (m$)|||0.0116<br>||||||||‐0.282<br>|‐0.241<br>|
||||(0.13)||||||||(‐1.48)|(‐1.50)|
|Project length||||‐0.0592|||||||‐0.0348|‐0.0518|
|||||(‐1.17)|||||||(‐0.51)|(‐0.88)|
|TTL performance|||||0.281**||||||0.309**||
||||||(2.43)||||||(1.97)||
|Preparation cost over commit, %||||||‐0.0960***<br>|||||‐0.187***<br>|‐0.170***<br>|
|||||||(‐2.95)|||||(‐2.88)|(‐2.94)|
|Supervision cost over commit, %|||||||‐0.0577**||||0.0328|‐0.000607|
||||||||(‐2.08)||||(0.47)|(‐0.01)|
|Potential prob. dummy (1=if raised in the 1rst half of the proj.)||||||||‐0.772***|||‐0.171|‐0.293|
|||||||||(‐3.66)|||(‐0.56)|(‐1.11)|
|Actual prob. dummy (1=if raised in the 1rst half of the proj.)|||||||||‐1.247***<br>(‐5.67)||‐1.223***<br>(‐4.46)|‐1.101***<br>(‐4.63)|
|Restructuring dummy (1=if restricted in the 1rst half of the proj.)||||||||||‐0.124|‐0.0969|0.0190|
|||||||||||(‐0.35)|(‐0.22)|(0.05)|
|Observations|3962|1105|1105|1105|893|1105|1105|1104|878|1021|712|875|
|R squared<br>Sector dummies|0.061<br>Y|0.144<br>Y|0.144<br>Y|0.145<br>Y|0.167<br>Y|0.152<br>Y|0.148<br>Y|0.157<br>Y|0.210<br>Y|0.149<br>Y|0.252<br>Y|0.228<br>Y|
|Sector x evaluation period dummies<br>Sector x approval period dummies|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|Y<br>Y|

Note: t statistics in parentheses, * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 35