rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4373

# **Abstract**

For years, South Korea presented the puzzling phenomenon of steeply rising sex ratios at birth despite rapid development, including in women’s education and formal employment. This paper shows that son preference decreased in response to development, but its manifestation continued until the mid-1990s due to improved sex-selection technology. The paper analyzes unusually rich survey data, and finds that the impact of development worked largely through triggering normative changes across the whole society — rather than just through changes in individuals as their socioeconomic circumstances changed. The findings show that nearly three-quarters of the decline in son preference between 1991 and 2003 is attributable to normative change, and the rest to increases in the proportions of urban and educated people.

South Korea is now the first Asian country to reverse the trend in rising sex ratios at birth. The paper discusses the cultural underpinnings of son preference in pre-industrial Korea, and how these were unraveled by industrialization and urbanization, while being buttressed by public policies upholding the patriarchal family system. Finally, the authors hypothesize that child sex ratios in China and India will decline well before they reach South Korean levels of development, since they have vigorous programs to accelerate normative change to reduce son preference.

This paper—a product of the Human Development and Public Services unit, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the department to study social institutions and development outcomes. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The corresponding author may be contacted at mdasgupta@ worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
Policy Research Working Paper 5685

# **Abstract**

This study examines recent effective rates of protection across the Egyptian economy, using an ad valorem price wedge introduced by nontariff barriers and energy subsidies, and compares today’s effective rates of protection with those of a decade ago. The study uses 23 aggregated sectors from input-output matrix information. Although trade liberalization since the late-1990s has had a considerable impact in reducing protection of some industries, some sectors, such as the food and tobacco sector, remain relatively highly protected, due to tariff escalation and nontariff barriers, and due to energy subsidies. Energy subsidies are not formally sector specific but do favor sectors that are energy intensive (of particular note is the electricity sector).

It appears that energy pricing is part of a strategy to subsidize and promote certain industries and in effect offset the _dis-_ protection or taxation that results from tariffs on intermediate inputs. The case of the cement sector is notable because energy subsidies appear to almost exactly offset the negative impacts of tariffs and indirect taxes. The fertilizer sector has zero nominal tariffs, benefiting agriculture, and so a negative effective rate of protection due simply to tariffs on intermediate inputs. However, the fertilizer sector ends up with a very high a positive total effective rate of protection due to energy subsidies.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Middle East and North Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank. org. The authors may be contacted at avaldese@uc.cl and wfoster@uc.cl.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
# Table of Contents

|SECTION|I:|Page No.<br>INTRODUCTION<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>1<br>Economic Role of Natural Resources . . . . . . . .<br>1<br>Objectives and Scope of the Par.er . . . . . . . .<br>2|
|---|---|---|
|SECTION|II:|OVERVIEW OF INDONESIA'S KEY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES . . .<br>3|
|||Economic Development and Environment . . . . . . .<br>3|
|||Land hanagement<br>..<br>4|
|||Forestry Management<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>5|
|||Water Resource Management<br>. . . . . . . . . . . .<br>6|
|||Pollution Management<br>. I<br>**.** . . . . .I<br>. .<br>7|
|SECTIOh|III:|THE FRAMEWORK FOR FISCAL POLICY<br>. . . . . . . . . .<br>9|
|||Introduction<br>.<br>.<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>9<br>The Rationale for Public Intervention<br>. . . . . .<br>9<br>The Role of Fiscal Policy<br>. . . .<br>. . . . . . . .<br>10<br>Fiscal Policy for Resource Management--<br>Land, Forest and Water<br>. . . . . . . . . . . .<br>12|
|SECTION|IV:|GOVERNMENT OF INDONESIA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY|
|||PROGRESS..<br>.<br>.<br>.<br>16<br>Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>16|
|||Regulatory Policies<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>16|
|||Fiscal Policies<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>18<br>Institutional Framework for<br>Environmental Management<br>. . . . . . . . . . . .<br>20|
|SECTION|V:|FTSCAL POLICY OPTIONS FOR INDONESIA'S E-L<br>vIRON1JNTL<br>MANAGEMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>22|
|||Importance of Fiscal Policy<br>. . . . . . . . .<br>. .<br>22<br>Practical Applications of Fiscal<br>Policy Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>22<br>Fiscal Policy Options for Indonesia<br>. . . . . . .<br>24<br>TTPe_nf_<br>Fiscal<br>Revenues: Earmarking<br>. . . . . . .<br>28<br>Implementation Issues<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>29|
|SECTION|VI:|SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>30|
|REFEREN<br>REFER<br>NC|CES.3<br> <br>ES<br>|3<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .<br>3|

This is a product of the CD5, Asia Region. I am grateful to Min Zhu (summer interni) for valuable research assistance. Useful comments were provided by: Russell Cheetham, Nick Hope, Ben Fisher, Dennis Whittle, Sushma Ganguly, Akihito Nishio, Dirk Leeuwrik, Andres Liebenthal, Laszlo Lovei, Jock Anderson, Jeremy Warford, 0. Bakyal, Gunner Eskeland and Sudhir Shetty.
the diversity spread to 0.73 during 1989→1994 noted in Panel B of Table 3a was weaker at 1.48 during 2005→2010. On the whole, the initial rapid changes in Indian distributions appear to be stabilizing, with perhaps particular stability emerging at the top of the distribution.<sup>7</sup> Finally, Figures 3-6 graph the district-level patterns in the Indian data across districts. Tables 4a and 4b also document the districts showing extreme values for the specialization and diversity indices, respectively. In both tables, we list the highest and lowest average values across the full period (Panels A and B), and the major increases or declines when comparing 2000-2010 values against 1989-1994 (Panels C and D). For the purposes of this table, we report values before winsorization, so the extreme values on this table differ from those listed in Table 1a. As described above, our index values do not depend directly on the size or economic advancement of a region. To this end, no more than 3 of the 12 districts for any of the eight lists provided are in the same Indian state. Likewise, specialization and diversity are related, but not one-for-one. Only 1 of the 24 districts that form an extreme average value on the specialization index in Panels A and B of Table 4a is also an extreme value on the corresponding diversity lists in Table 4b.

# _Industry-Oriented Perspective_

The specialization and diversity metrics are defined for districts, but it is also useful to take an industry-oriented perspective. To do so, we calculate for an industry the weightedaverage specialization and diversity index values for the districts in which the industry resides. We weight by the employment levels of the industry across districts. Thus, if most of the employments for an industry are in districts that are highly specialized, we will measure a high average specialization value for the industry.

In Table 5, we report the levels of these values for industries and their changes over time. The clearest pattern is that more advanced industries like office, accounting and computing machinery (NIC 30) and radio, television, and communication equipment and apparatus (NIC

> 7 A comparison point from U.S. states for 2005→2011 is a transition set of specialization of 1.2, 2.3, 3.0, 3.9, and 4.6 (lowest initial quintile to highest initial quintile). For diversity, the transition set is extremely stable at 1.1, 2.1, 3.2, 3.7, and 4.9. Unfortunately, the MSA definitions in the CBP data are not consistent enough to calculate at a lower spatial level.

14
ETHIOPIA’S INFRASTRUCTURE: A CONTINENTAL PERSPECTIVE The limited development of domestic air transport is striking. In contrast to Ethiopia Airlines’ highly developed international network, domestic air transport plays a relatively minor role. As tourism becomes more important for the country, it may be necessary to devote greater attention to developing domestic services.

# Water supply and sanitation

## **Achievements**

From a very low base, access to improved water and sanitation is rising rapidly. The majority of Ethiopia’s population relies on unimproved water and sanitation; 68 percent use surface water and 62 percent practice open defecation (table 3). These rates are almost twice as high as the benchmark level for low-income countries in Africa and represent a major public health risk. The deficit on the water side is largely explained by very low reliance on boreholes (10 percent in Ethiopia compared with 38 percent for the benchmark). The deficit on the sanitation side is largely explained by low coverage of traditional latrines (35 percent in Ethiopia compared with 48 percent for the benchmark).

**Table 3. Benchmarking access to water and sanitation and water utility performance**

||Unit|Ethiopia|Low-income countries|
|---|---|---|---|
|Access to piped water|% pop|6.0|10.1|
|Access to stand posts|% pop|15.8|16.1|
|Access to wells/boreholes|% pop|9.9|38.3|
|Access to surface water|% pop|67.9|33.8|
|Access to septic tanks|% pop|2.1|5.3|
|Access to improved latrines|% pop|0.9|9.3|
|Access to traditional latrines|% pop|34.7|47.9|
|No sanitation|% pop|62.2|37.1|
|Domestic water consumption|liter/capita/day|29.8|72.4|
|Revenue collection|% sales|97.0|96.0|
|Distribution losses|% production|22.0|22.1|
|Cost recovery|% total costs|47.0|56.0|
|Total hidden costs as % of revenue|%|132.7|121.2|
|Tariff (US cents per m3)|Ethiopia|Scarce water resources|Other developing regions|
|Residential tariff|23.41|60.26|30 – 600|
|Non-residential tariff|42.22|120.74|. .|

_Source_ : Banerjee and others 2008; and Morella and others 2008.

Rural water reforms have contributed to success in expanding improved water. Approximately 2.4 percent of Ethiopia’s population is gaining access to some form of improved water every year, and reliance on surface water is in decline (figure 5). This stands in contrast to the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, where access to improved water is largely stagnant, and reliance on surface water is growing. Some African countries have achieved success in this area by implementing a combination of reforms in rural water provision. Ethiopia has adopted some of these reforms including an explicit rural water policy, a dedicated central budget funding, and a cost recovery policy for rural water. But the country lacks some 9
degree of specialization, which might make sectoral specialization of banks more of a necessity and less damaging for systemic stability.<sup>13</sup> On the other hand, the positive effect of lending specialization on bank performance might be more pronounced at higher levels of economic development, where banks have the necessary expertise and institutional background to exploit such economies of scale. We therefore split our sample into countries below and above the median GDP per capita (Slovak Republic in 2005, with a value of 6775 for GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)). Lending specialization is penalized more strongly in countries with high GDP per capita, both in terms of franchise value and MES. The impact of sectoral factor specialization on the market-to-book value (MES) is more negative (positive) in developed versus developing countries, for each of the four market-based sectoral specialization measures. In fact, in developing countries, there is often an insignificant or even a positive (negative) and significant effect of specialization on market-to-book-value (MES). The negative effects of banks’ sectoral specialization on performance and contribution to systemic risk are therefore stronger in more developed countries, outweighing any benefits that might arise from loan specialization. On the other hand, there is only limited evidence of negative effects of sectoral specialization for banks in developing countries, a finding that has important implications for the regulatory reform debate on the global level.

In column (3), we split the sample according to whether banks in a country are subject to regulatory guidelines regarding asset diversification. On the one hand, such guidelines might mitigate the negative impact of specialization by forcing diversification along other dimensions, including geographical. On the other hand, such diversification rules might be the result of a sectorally very specialized banking sector. The information is taken from the World Bank questionnaire on Bank Regulation and Supervision (Cihak et al. (2012) and Barth et al. (2013)), which asks: "Are there any regulatory rules or supervisory guidelines regarding asset Countries with no such guidelines are in the below group,

> 13On the other hand, Brown (2013) shows that household income reductions due to banking crisis are more significant in the middle-income countries than in the high-income countries, and are mostly due to the labour market channel.

25
Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4421

# **Abstract**

This paper analyzes the socioeconomic determinants of HIV infection and related sexual behaviors using the 2004 Lesotho Demographic and Health Survey. The authors find that in Lesotho education appears to have a protective effect: it is negatively associated with HIV infection (although not always significantly) and it strongly predicts preventive behaviors. The findings also show that married women who have extra-marital relationships are less likely to use a condom than non-married women. This is an important source of vulnerability that should be addressed in prevention efforts. The paper also analyzes HIV infection at the level of the couple. It shows that in 41 percent of the infected couples, only one of the two partners is HIV infected. Therefore, there are still opportunities for prevention inside the couple.

This paper—a product of the Human Development and Public Services Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the determinants of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at lucia.corno@unibocconi.it and ddewalque@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
**Table 6: Marginal effects from logit estimates of work (Children 13 and 14 years)**

|**PANEL A**|**Pakistan**<br>Without controls||Withcontrols||
|---|---|---|---|---|
||Total|Total|Male|Female|
|May-Dec.|0.030|0.040|0.116*|-0.027|
||(0.037)|(0.038)|(0.054)|(0.054)|
|Age 13|0.022<br>(0.046)|0.027<br>(0.048)|0.079<br>(0.068)|-0.024<br>(0.067)|
|May-Dec. * Age13|-0.132*|-0.146**|-0.238**|-0.055|
||(0.054)|(0.055)|(0.079)|(0.074)|
|Observations<br>|1514|1514|743|771|
|Pseudo R<sup>2</sup>|0.01|0.18|0.14|0.32|
|LogLikelihood|-915.2|-758.8|-391.4|-318.2|
|**PANEL B**|**Urban**||||
||Without controls||Withcontrols||
||Total||Total||
|May-Dec.|-0.070*<br>(0.035)||-0.020<br>(0.031)||
|Age 13|-0.036||-0.019||
||(0.045)||(0.041)||
|May-Dec. * Age13|-0.066||-0.085||
||(0.056)||(0.051)||
|Observations<br>|802||802||
|Pseudo R<sup>2</sup>|0.03||0.16||
|LogLikelihood|-365.1||-314.8||
|**PANEL C**|**Rural**||||
||Without controls||Withcontrols||
||Total||Total||
|May-Dec.|0.150*||0.131||
||(0.064)||(0.073)||
|Age 13|0.100||0.121||
||(0.079)||(0.093)||
|May-Dec. * Age13|-0.224*||-0.251*||
||(0.090)||(0.104)||
|Observations<br>|712||712||
|Pseudo R<sup>2</sup>|0.01||0.14||
|LogLikelihood|-482.1||-419.7||

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses * significant at 5%; ** significant at 1% Disaggregating our sample of 13 and 14 year olds by gender shows no impact of the Act on girls but suggests that the probability of work for 13 year old children decreased by almost 12.8 percentage points. This difference between the estimates for boys and girls might be due to the fact that 13 year old girls are less likely to be involved in occupations that are prohibited by law (see appendix B for summary tables of employment in different occupations).

26
data. When weather is a critical component of the analysis, similar evidence of robustness should be provided regarding the choice of weather metrics. The researcher should be able to answer the question of whether their results hinge on the choice of a particular metric to measure precipitation or temperature, or whether their results reflect a broader relationship between precipitation, temperature, and the outcome of interest.

- Researchers should be cautious in using temperature data to predict agricultural outcomes. When looking at agricultural production in the LSMS-ISA data, temperature tends to be a poor predictor. Whether this is because remote sensing products mismeasure temperature or because temperature is not important to agricultural production in tropical Africa is uncertain. Obviously, there are situations that call for the use of temperature in the analysis but simply adding temperature to a regression because the data is available risks overcontrolling. Common temperature metrics for temperate regions, like GDD, are particularly poor predictors of agricultural production in the LSMS-ISA data, and should be avoided.

- Researchers must carefully choose which remote sensing source to use in their analysis. Despite the volume of precipitation and the temperature in a given location on a given day being objective facts, remote sensing products differ in how they measure these objective facts. Because of this, remote sensing products can and do disagree on what the weather was. At least for those using the LSMS-ISA data, researchers should not use rainfall data from MERRA-2 or ERA5. Without evidence to the contrary, one cannot assume that the measurement error in MERRA-2 or ERA5 is only limited to the LSMS-ISA, meaning researchers may want to avoid them when using household data from other Sub-Saharan African countries or from countries on other continents.

- Researchers may want to demonstrate the robustness of their results to the choice of weather data drawn from different remote sensing products. Again, when weather data is critical to the identification strategy, results should not be sensitive to the choice of remote sensing product. While it is unlikely that the choice between CHIRPS, CPC, ARC2, and TAMSAT will matter, the choice of temperature product could matter in ways that are difficult to predict.

While our analysis is based on agricultural production by LSMS-ISA households in six countries, we believe our conclusions are applicable to and valid in other countries in tropical regions and to other outcomes besides agricultural production. While results are specific to specific contexts, in our case that context is extremely broad. None of our results hinge on a single outcome, a single model, a single year, a single country, or a single region. Our analysis looks at multiple crops using several model specifications. Our data span more than a decade, and come from countries in Eastern, Western, and Southern Africa with different variation in agro-ecolocigal zones and different 46