# 1. Introduction

As in other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), both the frequency and intensity of climate and weather shocks are increasing in Zambia, pushing or locking rural households—especially smallholder farmers—into poverty (Thurlow, et al., 2012; Al Mamun, et al., 2018; Braimoh, et al., 2018; Ngoma, et al., 2019). It is estimated that climate variability reduced growth in Zambia’s agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and national GDP by 4 percent and 10 percent, respectively, between 2006 and 2016 (Thurlow, et al., 2012), with an associated increase in the national poverty rate of 2 percent.<sup>1</sup> In severe drought years, such as the 1991/1992 season, Thurlow et al. (2012) estimated that GDP reduced by 6.6 percent and poverty increased by 7.5 percentage points.<sup>2</sup> Climate change and variability are therefore important contributors to the high poverty incidence of <mark>76.6 percent in rural Zambia.</mark><sup>3</sup> <mark>Reliance o</mark> n rainfed agriculture <mark>drives the high prevalence of poverty in rural Zambia and among smallholder farmers.</mark> This dependence means that rural households are particularly strongly exposed to climate shocks. <mark>According to the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS), poverty among small-scale farming households was 78.9 percent compared to 64. 5 percent among medium-scale farmers (CSO, 2015). Poverty is highest in the Northern (79.7 percent), Eastern (70 percent), Southern (57.6 percent), and Central (56.2 percent) Provinces. Except for the Central and Northern Provinces, all have a higher population density than the national average, indicating a combination of high poverty rates and high absolute numbers of poor people.</mark><sup>4</sup> Because rural households are not all the same, it is important to understand the extent to which different groups are exposed to and vulnerable to climate shocks. It is also important to assess the extent to which behavioral choices, such as adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA), might mitigate the negative effects of climate shocks on vulnerability and resilience. Apart from differences in geographic location, households also differ by socioeconomic status, making some agricultural households systematically more exposed and vulnerable to climatic risks than others—for example, those primarily dependent on rainfed agriculture. In the same way, some households may be better equipped to mitigate or build resilience before climate shocks or cope and adapt with them afterwards through adoption of sustainable or CSA farming practices such as conservation agriculture (CA).

Despite a growing body of literature linking climate risk, poverty, and livelihoods more broadly in Zambia, little attention has been devoted to carefully define and measure, and

> 1 The paper by Thurlow et al. (2012) imposes changes in climate in 2025 on economic outcomes over the period 2006 – 2016.

> 2 These are years during which total rainfall during the growing season is between 405mm and 499mm.

> 3 The comparative rate of poverty in urban areas is 23.4 percent.

> 4 According to the Zambia data portal https://zambia.opendataforafrica.org/lfigqzd/zambia-atlas-fact-dataset- <u>4-feb-2013, the average population density in Zambia by 2015 was 20.16 persons per km</u><sup>2</sup> . It was higher in Eastern and Southern Provinces at 34 and 21 persons per km<sup>2</sup> , respectively.

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