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The exchange rate is unlikely to affect the market performance in the dairy sector, possibly because most of dairy products are domestically consumed. Unlike coffee and cocoa, weather seems less relevant to dairy sector productivity. In Table 7, the models do not include weather variables; the null hypothesis that all weather variables are indifferent from zero can easily be rejected by the standard Wald test.

|Table 8. Milk, butter and cheese:|three stage le|ast squares e|stimates|||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||||With lagge|d infrastructu|re variables|||With curr|ent infrastruc|ture variable|s instrument|ed by lagged|values|
|Market share equation 1/ 2/||||||||||||||
|3/<br>*<br>ln<br>_jk_<br>_p_|-5.765 <sup>***</sup>|-5.765 <sup>***</sup>|-4.788 <sup>***</sup>|-1.246 <sup>***</sup>|-1.846 <sup>***</sup>|-3.201 <sup>***</sup>|-3.201 <sup>***</sup>|-5.765 <sup>***</sup>|-5.765 <sup>***</sup>|-1.246 <sup>***</sup>|-1.846 <sup>***</sup>|-3.201 <sup>***</sup>|-3.201 <sup>***</sup>|
||(1.705)|(1.699)|(1.049)|(0.340)|(0.439)|(0.982)|(0.985)|(1.777)|(1.677)|(0.340)|(0.439)|(0.993)|(1.001)|
|Price equation 4/||||||||||||||
|Road density|0.035|||||||0.035||||||
||(0.113)|||||||(0.116)||||||
|Teledensity||-0.505|||||||-0.212|||||
|||(0.403)|||||||(0.288)|||||
|Rural teledensity|||0.087<br>(0.086)|||||||||||
|Electricity consumption||||0.009||||||0.009||||
|||||(0.026)||||||(0.024)||||
|Agri. power consumption|||||-0.008||||||0.011|||
||||||(0.008)||||||(0.017)|||
|Water access||||||-0.020 <sup>***</sup>||||||0.012 <sup>**</sup>||
|||||||(0.007)||||||(0.006)||
|Rural water access|||||||-0.021 <sup>***</sup>||||||-0.040 <sup>***</sup>|
||||||||(0.007)||||||(0.014)|
|_ΔER_|0.007|0.009|-0.006|-0.002|0.080 <sup>**</sup>|0.004|0.004|0.008|0.009|-0.002|0.077 <sup>**</sup>|0.021 <sup>**</sup>|0.002|
||(0.009)|(0.010)|(0.010)|(0.010)|(0.037)|(0.009)|(0.009)|(0.010)|(0.010)|(0.010)|(0.037)|(0.009)|(0.009)|
|ln_s jk_|-0.170 <sup>***</sup>|-0.156 <sup>***</sup>|-0.085|-0.084 <sup>*</sup>|-0.166 <sup>***</sup>|-0.113 <sup>***</sup>|-0.131 <sup>***</sup>|-0.169 <sup>***</sup>|-0.155 <sup>***</sup>|-0.085|-0.165 <sup>***</sup>|-0.258 <sup>***</sup>|-0.103 <sup>***</sup>|
||(0.052)|(0.047)|(0.054)|(0.050)|(0.061)|(0.038)|(0.037)|(0.054)|(0.048)|(0.050)|(0.061)|(0.055)|(0.039)|
|Constant|0.117|0.290|-0.174|0.093|0.362|1.819 <sup>***</sup>|1.571 <sup>***</sup>|0.118|0.314|0.092|0.314|-0.582|3.086|
||(0.454)|(0.454)|(0.620)|(0.459)|(0.469)|(0.625)|(0.565)|(0.469)|(0.534)|(0.460)|(0.465)|(0.569)|(1.004)|
|Obs.|278|291|210|245|135|240|237|235|288|245|135|231|225|
|Weather variables|No|No|No|No|No|No|No|No|No|No|No|No|No|
|Number of country dummies|100|105|76|86|47|85|84|83|104|86|47|82|80|
|Chi-square statistics||||||||||||||
|Market share equation|1205.6 <sup>***</sup>|1297.8 <sup>***</sup>|1639.8 <sup>***</sup>|4789.4 <sup>***</sup>|1336.4 <sup>***</sup>|2382.5 <sup>***</sup>|2354.1 <sup>***</sup>|939.1 <sup>***</sup>|1305.4 <sup>***</sup>|4789.4 <sup>***</sup>|1336.4 <sup>***</sup>|2240.1 <sup>***</sup>|2177.1 <sup>***</sup>|
|Price equation|337.9 <sup>***</sup>|357.8 <sup>***</sup>|270.6 <sup>***</sup>|238.5 <sup>***</sup>|96.9 <sup>***</sup>|270.9 <sup>***</sup>|271.4 <sup>***</sup>|253.2 <sup>***</sup>|363.8 <sup>***</sup>|238.5 <sup>***</sup>|97.0 <sup>***</sup>|244.2 <sup>***</sup>|241.6 <sup>***</sup>|

Source: Author's calculations.

1/ The dependent variable is ln _s jt_ .

2/ The constant term in the market share equation is dropped due to multicollinearity with country-specific dummy variables.

3/ The estimated price coefficient only marginally varies among models, because instrumental variables adopted are almost identical.

4/ The dependent variable is .ln _p_ * _jk_ <!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 12. Volume of milk exports to African market, 2001-05<br>(Millions of kilogram)<br>(665) (79) (61) (58)<br>10<br>9<br>8<br>7<br>6<br>5<br>4<br>3<br>2<br>1<br>0<br>Source: WITS COMTRADE database.<br>South AfricaZimbabweGhana TogoKenyaBurkina FasoCote d'Ivoire NigerCameroonNigeriaSenegalLiberiaUgandaNamibiaMauritiusFranceGermanyNetherlands<br><!-- End of picture text -->