rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
ALLOCATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PUBLIC SPENDING 64. Also, such guidelines would have to aim at a gradual change In the - composition cf expenditure the "Ideal" pattern could not be achieved in one step but would have to be sought over a period of years. Guidelines could only work at all In a context where funds actually released correspond closely to the provision In the Estimates, and It would be essential to have timely expenditure records from which compliance with the guidelines could be monitored. In many cases, the decentrallsation that Is Implied may be hampered by the fragmentation of sectoral responsibilities among a number of ministrles. The approach also underlines the Importance of the development of economic planning skills within sectoral ministries. (Again the development of effective minlsterial planning units may be hampered by the Institutional fragmentation of sectors.) 65. Derivlng Expenditure Guldelines. There remains the question of how to set such guidelines. The problem is probably not as difficult In practice as It may seem in principle. It would be very difficult to determine a single "correct" level of resources to allocate to any activity, but all that is practically required is a sense of the qualitative directions for change. Thus, If It is apparent that, say, primary health care has been underfunded, expenditure guidelines should be set that allow a faster rate of growth for primary health care expenditures than for others; this should be continued (probably over several years) until the Imbalance ceases to be obvious, but, since the process takes time, it Is not necessary to know at the outset exactly what Its outcome will be - guidelines can be continually revised In the light of experience.l141 66. All the same, It would be Interesting to know, at least approxlmdtely, what would be the cost of operating Government's existing services properly. Indeed, thils Is a crucial piece of Information If Government is to plan Its public expenditures rationally over the medium term, and it has a direct bearing on the balance that should be struck between development and recurrent expenditures. There Is little point In allocating incremental resources to new capital investment by Government if the real need Is for additional recurrent expenditure to enable past Investments to be properly utilised. Thus the appropriate size of the Public Investment Programme (PIP) cannot be determined independently of decisions about the volume of recurrent expenditure required. This is true for individual sectors as well as for the public expenditure programme as a whole.

- [141 Of courses, to allow for rational adjustment by sectors the guidelines must have a medium-term horizon, although next year's ceiling may be definite while subsequent years' guidelines are more Indicative.

Page 293
The paper begins in Section 2 with a review of existing empirical work in two critical dimensions: domain and specification. _Domain_ refers to the type of globalization (products, capital, or labor) and the type of inequality (global inequality between all individuals in the world, inequality between the countries, within-country inequality between individuals, or wage inequality between wage earners) under examination. It also refers to the locus of the study and whether it is a single-country or a multi-country study. _Specification_ is of two types with variables being measured either in levels or in first differences. This subsection also deals with the important issue of interaction between policy variables and initial conditions. In Section 3, we present a simple, yet comprehensive, model of the equilibrium relationship between wage inequality and trade policy. Four categories of wages are examined: for skilled and unskilled labor; and for labor in protected and unprotected sectors. The model allows us to explore the ways in which trade liberalization affects the skill premium, the protection premium, and the union premium. In Section 4 we discuss the variables on wage inequality and trade and labor liberalization that we use in the empirical part. The empirical model in Section 5 is estimated in two different ways that draw on two large sets of data on wage inequality. One is a database of Occupational Wages around the World (OWW) covering the period from 1983 to 1999 and more than 150 countries. The data were collected from the ILO sources (the _October Inquiry_ ), and then put together and analyzed by Richard Freeman and Remco Oostendorp (2000).<sup>2</sup> The other is a database of inter-industrial wage differences created by James Galbraith and associates. This University of Texas Inequality Project (UTIP) database covers on average about 90 countries annually over the period 1975-99.<sup>3</sup>

> 2 The _Occupational Wages around the World_ (OWW) database in available at <u>www.nber.com.</u>

> 3 The data are available at <u>http://utip.gov.utexas.edu/.</u>

4
Table 6: DiD with alternate counterfactual: States with similar income

||(1)<br>Log<br>total workers|(2)<br>Log<br>regular workers|(3)<br>Log<br>contract workers|(4)<br>Share of<br>contract workers|(5)<br>Likelihood of<br>usinganycontract work|(6)<br>Implicit cost<br>of Labor|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|RJ * Treatment L * Post|0.041|-0.146|0.790***|0.094***|0.137**|-0.136*|
||(0.071)|(0.108)|(0.260)|(0.030)|(0.053)|(0.081)|
|Observations|12,707|12,707|12,707|12,707|12,707|12,707|
|R-squared|0.016|0.020|0.011|0.014|0.007|0.072|
|Number of fact<br>~~n~~um|2,028|2,028|2,028|2,028|2,028|2,028|
|Firm FEs|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|
|Year Dummies|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|

Note: Sample restricted to firms with more than 100 workers. Treatment refers to firms with 100-300 workers. The states having a similar level of GDP per capita to Rajasthan from 2012 - 2015 include Andhra Pradesh, Chatisgarh, Jharkahnd, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal. All dependant outcome variables represented in log forms here have been assigned an underlying value of 1 when they take a value of zero. Share of contract workers is defined as the share of contract worker in total worker hours used by the firm for that year. Implicit cost is defined using the expenditure on all raw materials as a base. Standard errors in parentheses, clustered at the firm level. *** p _<_ 0.01, ** p _<_ 0.05, * p _<_ 0.1.) Moreover, they indicate that the estimated impacts on contract and permanent employment are not driven by any single post-treatment year. They appear to have persisted at the same level up to three years after the amendment. This suggests that firms made a one-time adjustment to their contract to permanent worker ratio after the amendment was passed.

# **6.3 Why did firms increase contract hiring? Some further analysis**

Besides repealing IDA Chapter V-B among firms with 100-300 workers, Rajasthan also eased the contract labor regulations applying to firms with 20-50 contract workers by exempting them from the CLA.<sup>35</sup> It could be that the switch towards contract workers observed in treated firms is not due to IDA amendment but instead, a result of the CLA Amendment. To test this alternative explanation, we split the IDA treatment group (firms with 100 to 300 workers) into two subgroups based on whether total contract worker employment at baseline was above or below 50. If our results reflect the CLA amendment, then we expect the estimated impacts to be stronger in those treated firms that also became exempt from the CLA in 2105: that is, those with fewer than 50 contract workers at baseline. The results, presented in Table 7, do not support this alternative explanation. In contrast, they suggest that the proportionate increase in contractual employment was larger in treatment firms with more than 50 contract workers at baseline. For example, the point estimate of the percentage increase in contract employment in treatment firms with more than 50 contract employees at baseline is more than twice that in treatment firms with fewer than

> 35Firms with fewer than 20 contract workers were already exempt from the CLA

25
# **Figure 10. Kernel distribution estimates of consumption per-capita**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Poverty line Vulnerability threshold<br>0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500<br>Household consumption per-capita<br>2005 2012<br>.002<br>.0015<br>.001<br>Kernel density<br>.0005<br>0<br><!-- End of picture text --> Bandwidth: 2 Source: IHDS, 2005 and 2012 Our decomposition exercise can help construct counterfactual scenarios that are useful to demonstrate vulnerability to specific events, like economic and policy shocks. The coefficients in Table A4 in the Appendix show the potential “loss” in poverty reduction if each factor had remained at its 2005 level, for each household. For example, a (hypothetical) economic shock that drove remittances down to its 2005 levels would have led to around 3 percent higher rural poverty and 1 percent higher urban poverty compared to what is observed now. Similarly, if benefits from government programs had been unchanged from the 2005 levels, rural and urban poverty in 2012 would have been higher by 1 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.

# **5. Conclusion**

There has been much speculation and debate around the causes and drivers of the rapid poverty reduction in India seen from official data over the last decade. Our paper is an attempt to contribute to this debate, using evidence from two rounds of IHDS panel data that cover the period 2005 to 2012, which show trends roughly comparable with those from the official data sources for similar years. This paper attempts to understand the broad directions of changes from a household perspective that have led to the observed poverty decline.

Four main findings are important to highlight. First, increase in labor earnings—which was most rapid among those in non-agricultural wage/salaried employment but also occurred in agriculture— was a major factor in reducing poverty. This was complemented by workers shifting out of agriculture and into wage and salaried non-agricultural work that yield higher earnings per worker—a transition that was particularly rapid among households who were poor in 2005. Second, in broad sectoral terms, changes in the non-agricultural sector contributed much more to poverty reduction than did the agricultural sector; and changes in wage/salaried employment contributed much more than did selfemployment. Third, a combination of demographic changes (decline in dependency ratio) and increasing employment among adults of working age have contributed significantly as well. Fourth, remittances and benefits account for a substantial part of poverty decline, due to expansion in the 26
et al. (2008) use detailed longitudinal data to study an association between childhood diarrhea and subsequent height. Perhaps more importantly, Humphrey (2009) and Korpe and Petri (2012) note that chronic but subclinical “environmental enteropathy” – a disorder caused by repeated fecal contamination which increases the small intestine’s permeability – to pathogens while reducing nutrient absorption could cause malnutrition, stunting, and cognitive deficits, even without necessarily manifesting as diarrhea ( _see also_ Petri et al., 2008; Mondal et al., 2011).

Second, recent well-identified retrospective econometric studies find an effect of a government sanitation program in rural India.<sup>4</sup> From 2001 until its replacement with a new program in 2012, the Indian central government has operated a “flagship” rural sanitation program called the Total Sanitation Campaign (TSC). This program offered a partial construction subsidy for building household latrines, and most importantly provided for village-level community sanitation mobilization. This was especially encouraged by the Clean Village Prize, a cash incentive to the leaders of villages that eliminate open defecation. By matching survey and census data on health outcomes to administrative records and program rules, and by exploiting exogenous variation in the timing of program implementation and in a discontinuity in the function mapping village population to prize amount, Spears (2012a) estimates an average effect of the TSC on rural Indian children’s health. Averaging over implementation heterogeneity throughout rural India, Spears finds that the TSC reduced infant mortality and increased children’s height.<sup>5</sup> In a follow-up study, Spears and Lamba (2012) find that early life exposure to improved rural sanitation due to the TSC additionally caused an increase in cognitive achievement at age six, using a similar approach to identification.

We study a village-level program inspired by the Community-Led Total Sanitation move-

> 4Additionally, other studies find effects of large scale piped water investments on health, especially in the history of now-rich countries (Cutler and Miller, 2005; Watson, 2006).

> 5Similarly, in a country-year level study where 140 collapsed Demographic and Health Surveys form the set of observations, Spears (2013) shows that international variation in open defecation explains much of the international variation in child stunting. In particular, the puzzle of profound Indian stunting (Ramalingaswami et al., 1996) could be importantly partially explained by India’s particularly widespread open defecation.

5
<!-- Start of picture text --> 0.7 :<br>? preannounced<br>= minimum wage<br>0.6 :i adjustments<br>05 - i<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.4 - A oo<br>-——Labor share :<br>——Capital share :<br>0.3 3 rs as as |<br>NnSs =«8 sé nmBb Oosé mtS&F ©B8B BBS SaBB NEMOSsxtEaBa SeSs Nm2 woS83 sy85<br>Ss SG S&S S&F &F S&S S&S S&S GF GF FGtIFG BG G&G GB Ss<br>TMN mN N TMN N N N N N GN GN GN GN N N NN<br><!-- End of picture text -->
she is more likely to be at an advanced and symptomatic stage of the disease and that his or her partner would have been exposed for a longer period to the virus<sup>4</sup> .

The methodology used in the study is very simple, since I only report sample means. In section IV, I vary the composition of the samples to verify that the findings are robust and that the proportion of discordant female couples is not mainly due to HIV infection prior to the marriage or cohabitation. The means are calculated using population weights provided in the data sets<sup>5</sup> . Given the relatively small number of HIV infections among couples, especially in Burkina Faso and Ghana, standard errors are such that confidence intervals around the means are relatively large. The fact that the findings about the large proportion, among HIV infected couples, of discordant couples and the substantial fraction of discordant couples where the female is infected is confirmed across different compositions of the sample and across five different countries reinforces, however, their robustness.

Some individuals who had been sampled for HIV testing have refused to be tested or were absent. If the absence of a test is not random, this could be a source of bias. In an analysis at the level of the couple, this bias due to a less than complete coverage of the HIV test could be aggravated because the absence of the test for one of the two partners implies that the entire couple cannot be used as an observation. I address this issue in Section IV.

# **III A large majority of infected couples are discordant**

The first finding that this paper investigates is the result that at least two-thirds of the infected couples are couples where only one the two partners is HIV positive. Indeed, only 14.8 percent of the infected couples in Burkina Faso are concordant positive. This

> 4 The median time between HIV infection and the first symptoms of AIDS is between 7 and 9 years. 5 For Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania, I am able, in table 1, to replicate the statistics reported in the final reports of the DHS (Cameroon Government and ORC Macro. 2004; Ghana Government and ORC Macro. 2004; Kenya Government and ORC Macro. 2004; Tanzania Government and ORC Macro. 2005). While I am using exactly the same procedure as in the four other countries, I am not able to exactly replicate the figures reported in the Burkina Faso 2003 DHS (Burkina Faso Government and ORC Macro. 2005). The results, however, are qualitatively, if not numerically, the same.

7
Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4473

# **Abstract**

This paper uses highly disaggregated trade data to investigate geographic and product diversification patterns across a group of developing nations for the period from 1990 to 2005. The econometric investigation shows that the gravity equation fits the observed differences in diversification across nations. The analysis shows that exports at the intensive margin account for the most important share of overall trade growth. At the extensive margin, geographic diversification is more important than product diversification, especially for developing countries. Taking part in free trade agreements, thereby reducing trade costs, and trading with countries in the North are also found to have positive impacts on export diversification for developing countries.

This paper—a product of the International Trade Department—is part of a larger effort in the department to stimulate analysis of policies designed to increase export diversification. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at mpierola@worldbank.org, pierola3@hei.unige.ch and amurgop1@hei.unige.ch.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO’S INFRASTRUCTURE: A CONTINENTAL PERSPECTIVE

**Table 3. Benchmarking power indicators**

||Unit<br>Low-i|ncome countries|**DRC**<br>Frag|ile states|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Installed power-generation capacity|MW/mil. people|20.2|**41.6**|45.7|
|Power consumption|kWh/capita|107.4|**122.5**|165.3|
|Power outages|Day/year|10.4|**213.5**|11.1|
|Firms’ reliance on own generator|% consumption|21.2|**17.1**|16.2|
|Firms’ value lost due to power outages|% sales|6.5|**5.6**|5.4|
|Access to electricity|% population|15.0|**6**|49.7|
|Urban access to electricity|% population|57.6|**30**|89.7|
|Rural access to electricity|% population|3.9|**1**|26.6|
|Growth access to electricity|% population/year|0.8|–|3.3|
|Revenue collection|% billings|93.1|**41.8**|33.6|
|Distribution losses|% production|23.7|**40.0**|40.0|
|Cost recovery|% total cost|84.4|**100.0**|100.0|
|Total hidden costs|% of revenue|68.8|**595.3**|442.5|
|U.S. cents|**DRC**|Predomi<br>hydrogen|nantly<br>eration<br>Other develop|ing regions|
|Power tariff (residential at 75 kWh)|**4.0**|10.27|5.0–10.0||
|Power tariff (commercial at 900 kWh)|**11.0**|11.73|||
|Power tariff (industrial at 50,000 kWh)|**14.6**|11.39|||

_Source:_ Eberhard and others 2009, derived from AICD electricity database downloadable from http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/tools/data **.** — = data not available.

9
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Timilsina, Govinda R. and Hari B. Dulal, 2008, Fiscal Policy Instruments for Reducing Congestion and Atmospheric Emissions in the Transport Sector: A Review. Policy Research Working Paper: WPS4652. The World Bank, Washington, DC.

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