rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
- 14 -

# **_5.1 An Overview of the Results_**

Table 5 presents estimates of MWRs for March of 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005, using the cohortized version of the most updated mortality table for the annuitant population (the RV-04), and the risk-free yield curve.<sup>9</sup> The table shows the overall averages for each of the five years, the maximum and the minimum, and the averages for well defined categories, including type, age, gender, size of the premium, and the presence of guaranteed and deferred periods. It must be emphasized that these are MWRs computed for indexed annuities.

**Table 5: Money's Worth Ratios in March of 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005** **<u>Computed with the Risk Free Rate and an Update Cohort Annuitant Table</u>**

||**March**<br>**1999**|**March**<br>**2002**|**March**<br>**2003**|**March**<br>**2004**|**March**<br>**2005**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|All cases|0.978|1.079|1.036|1.064|1.062|
|- maximum|1.148|1.222|1.181|1.276|1.223|
|- minimum|0.755|0.872|0.872|0.876|0.706|
|Male Single Life|0.987|1.086|1.044|1.061|1.054|
|Female Single Life|1.009|1.111|1.063|1.097|1.086|
|Joint Life|0.968|1.070|1.026|1.052|1.046|
|Male Single Life age 55|0.981|1.075|1.034|1.049|1.042|
|Male Single Life age 65|0.996|1.117|1.069|1.086|1.067|
|Female Single Life age 55|0.994|1.101|1.049|1.076|1.064|
|Female Single Life age 60|1.021|1.131|1.077|1.105|1.083|
|Joint Life – Male 65 and Female 60|0.998|1.083|1.050|1.078|1.069|
|Purchase Price up to UF 1,000|0.980|1.078|1.045|1.068|1.067|
|Purchase Price above UF 3,000|0.997|1.099|1.047|1.075|1.071|
|Without guaranteed term|0.990|1.092|1.045|1.071|1.073|
|With guaranteed term|0.974|1.076|1.033|1.062|1.059|
|Without deferment|0.979|1.079|1.035|1.063|1.061|
|Withdeferment|0.974|1.080|1.036|1.067|1.064|

The first thing to note is that the average MWR in 1999 is slightly lower than one, a value that is usually taken to indicate a fairly priced annuity. In 2002 and the following years average MWRs are all higher than one, and also higher than MWRs estimated for other countries. As shown in more detail in the next section, MWRs of nominal annuities estimated with similar assumptions usually range from 0.9 to levels slightly above 1 and are much lower in the case of indexed annuities.

Second, there is a significant variation in individual MWRs, as indicated by the wide difference between maximum and minimum values. Maximum values range roughly from 1.15 to 1.25 and minimum values range from 0.75 to 0.85. These variations reflect to a good extent price differentiation by providers based on the individual characteristics of annuitants, but they may also reflect inefficiencies, as discussed below.

> 9 As mentioned before, the month of March was selected simply to allow comparisons with previous estimates made by other researchers.  These comparisons are provided below.
61 _Table 4.5: Ghana: SelectedMacroeconomiclndica 'rs. 1984-89 (Cedis million)_

||1982|1983|1984|1985|1986|1987|1988|1989|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|GDP(1975 prices)|4974|4747|_5158_|5420|5702|5976|6312|6633|
|Percent<br>growth|-6.9|-4.6|8.6|5.1|5.2|4.8|5.6|_5.1_|
|Current Revenues*****|||20813|37071|65889|98972|130939|171827|
|Percentgrowth|||-|78|78|_50_|32|31|
|_Change In Price bnx fpa)_<br>|||||||||
|CI|||-|10.38|24.56|39.82|31.36|25.23|
|Food|||-|-11.14|20.28|38.49|34.10|25.08|
|ChGrsrant,f**d**& powcr|||-|7.32|42.53|40.22|_35.52_|25.04|
|Transpot & ommunition|||-|53.87|34.23|34.37|30.53|30.35|

ToaI auvm (I= fomign gant).

As regards **ihe** revenue effects of petroleum price changes, a sinple calculation can be made assuniing zero price elasticities. If prices for kerosene and diesel had been kept constant **in** real **terms,** rather than increasing by 161 and 214 percent, respectively, ihe amnual shortfall would have been 21729 million Cedis, or 17 percat of govenment revenues **in** 1988. Al more elastic demands the implied shortfll would be even larger given that subsidized goods would be sold in larger quantities.
**Table 2.B Variables for analysis of fiscal policy volatility**

|**Variable**|**Description**|**Source**|
|---|---|---|
|General government<br>revenue|Consists of taxes, social contributions, grants<br>receivable, and other revenue.|IMF_World Economic_<br>_Outlook_(WEO)|
|Primary balance|Primary net lending/borrowing is net lending<br>/borrowing plus net interest payable/paid (interest<br>expense minus interest revenue; percent of GDP)|WEO|
|Primary expenditure|Obtained by subtracting interest payments from<br>general government total expenditures. Interest<br>payments are calculated as the difference between<br>overall fiscal balance and the primary balance (all in<br>percent of GDP).|WEO and authors’<br>calculations|
|Government<br>consumption|General government final consumption expenditure<br>includes all government current expenditures for<br>purchases of goods and services (including<br>compensation of employees) and most expenditures<br>on national defense and security; excludes<br>government military expenditures that are part of<br>government capital formation.|World Development<br>Indicators (World Bank)|
|Real GDP; real GDP<br>per capita||WEO|
|Political constraints|The Political Constraints Index (POLCON) measures<br>the extent to which policy changes are constrained<br>by institutional and political factors.|POLCON data set (Henisz<br>2000)|
|Control of corruption|An index measuring corruption within the political<br>system; ranges from 0 to 6.|International Country Risk<br>Guide (ICRG)|
|Government size|General government total expenditure (percent of<br>GDP)|WEO|
|Investment price|Price level of investment|Penn World Table|
|Capital account<br>openness|The Chinn-Ito index (KAOPEN) measuring a country’s<br>degree of capital account openness; available from<br>1970-2019 for 182 countries.|Chinn and Ito (2006)|
|Openness|Sum of exports and imports (percent of GDP)|World Integrated Trade<br>Solution (World Bank)|
|Resources rents|Sum of oil rents, natural gas rents, coal rents (hard<br>and soft), mineral rents, and forest rents. The<br>estimates of natural resource rents are calculated as<br>the difference between the price of a commodity<br>and the average cost of producing it.|World Development<br>Indicators (World Bank)|
|Fiscal rules|<br>Covers four types of rules: budget balance rules,<br>debt rules, expenditure rules, and revenue rules,<br>applying to the central or general government or<br>the public sector.|Davoodi et al. (2002)|
|SWF (sovereign<br>wealth fund)|Dummy variable: 0 if a country does not have an<br>SWF and 1 if it has an SWF.|https://www.swfinstitute.<br>org/fund-<br>rankings/sovereign-|

46
# 1. **Introduction**

Collateral has attracted an increasing amount of attention as an important feature in debt contracting.2 Academic interest in collateral is not surprising, given its widespread use as an element in commercial loan contracting. In previous literature, Berger and Udell (1995) found that over 70% of loans to small businesses are collateralized. One type of secured debt contract that has not received enough attention in the literature is the secured line of credit (L/C), which provides commercial loans secured by short-term assets, such as accounts receivable and inventory. The use of collateral in L/C loans is particularly interesting because of the important role that L/Cs play in financing small and mid-size companies. These companies often obtain critical working capital financing under a forward contract _(L/C)_ rather than in the spot market in order to reduce transaction costs and to obtain insurance against credit rationing.

Unlike other types of financing that are routinely collateralized, L/C loans may be extended as either secured or unsecured. This choice, however, is not well understood. Moreover, there has been a striking increase in the amount of loans outstanding under secured L/Cs. For example, the market for loans under secured commercial L/Cs increased over 100% during the 1990s, accounting for approximately 23% of the total amount of Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loans at US commercial banks in 1998.3 Despite the increase in this form of financing, most of the extant theoretical literature on collateral is quite general in nature and not specifically applicable to the distinctive nature of L/C loans. The process of secured lending is distinctly different

> 2 For example, Barclay and Smith (1997), John et. al., (2000), Rajan and Winton (1995), and Triantis (2000).

> 3Secured lending amounts are from the Commercial Finance Association Annual Report, 1999, and the C&I loan amount is from the Council of Economic Advisers Annual Report, 1999.

I
Attracting adherents both on the political right and the left, the idea of placing significant reliance on the taxation of finance, in particular through the taxation of financial transactions, has a long history. Already, there has been a ramping-up of interest in this area.<sup>1</sup> Anticipating this growing interest, the present paper reviews the main issues that arise in considering new proposals for a broad increase in financial sector taxation, especially those centering around the taxation of financial transactions. Transactions taxes have always attracted reformers especially because of their apparently large base (seeming to offer sizable revenue with low deadweight costs) and an apparent simplicity and transparency in their design.

Proposals of this type vary considerably as to the range of transactions that would be made subject to the tax. A relatively sharp distinction is customarily made between a securities transactions tax (STT), a currency transactions tax (CTT), and a bank debit tax.

In his _General Theory_ Keynes proposed an STT to reduce destabilizing speculation in equities; Tobin’s similar CTT dates from 1972 and had the goal of reducing destabilizing currency speculation. Bank debit taxes have been employed in several countries, especially in Latin America.

The explosive growth in financial derivative transactions over the past quarter century introduces a range of further possibilities. One proposal, which we will look at in greater depth, is for a comprehensive tax on all financial transactions to replace all taxes.

> 1 That interest is already growing in this area is exemplified by policy advocacy work such as Baker (2008) and the commentary on this in the New York Times, the Guardian and in blogs; Pisek’s (2008) presentation to the European Parliament., as well as websites such as http://www.apttax.com/ (Edgar Feige’s scheme) and http://www.nationaldebittax.com/ (Leonard Crisp’s scheme).  Financial transactions taxes are also on the agends of the UN’s Leading Group on Innovative Financing for Development, as discussed below.

3
# WPS 3392

## DOCUMENT OF THE WORLD BANK

Risk Modeling Concepts Relating to the Design and Rating of Agricultural Insurance Contracts

## **Barry K. Goodwin**

_North Carolina State University_

## **Olivier Mahul**

_The World Bank_

## **Abstract**

Goodwin and Mahul identify the key issues and concerns that arise in the design and rating of crop yield insurance plans, with a particular emphasis on production risk modeling. The authors show how the availability of data shapes the insurance scheme and the ratemaking procedures. Relying on the U.S. experience and recent developments in statistics and econometrics, they review risk modeling concepts and provide technical guidelines in the development of crop insurance plans. Finally, they show how these risk modeling techniques can be extended to price risk in order to develop crop revenue insurance schemes.

## World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3392, September 2004

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

**Acknowledgements** : We are grateful to Jerry Caprio and Rodney Lester for their helpful comments and suggestions.
Policy Research Working Paper 9266

# **Abstract**

In Kosovo, employers report significant skill shortages, which limits firm growth and job creation. To understand the labor market dynamics and employer needs in real time, this paper analyzes the content of job postings using data from major online job portals from 2018. The findings show that the skills that are most in demand are socioemotional skills (especially related to extraversion), foreign language skills, and computer skills. The importance of these skills is transversal, cutting not only across occupations and industries, but also universally demanded in all education fields. The need for these skills is expressed more often and more explicitly in postings for jobs requiring higher levels of experience. Moreover, job platforms are used almost exclusively for filling high-skill occupations, especially in Kosovo’s capital city, Pristina, whereas many low- and medium-skill jobs and jobs outside the capital are filled through informal channels. Overall, online data can be a useful tool for policy makers and other stakeholders to help align career services, training programs, and educational curricula with the skill needs of firms in real time.

This paper is a product of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at amarguerie@worldbank.org, sbrodmann@worldbank.org and brancatelli@econ.uni-frankfurt.de.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
where _n_ is the number of observations, γ _n_ is an a-priori chosen sequence of positive numbers called the window width parameter and _K_ () . is an a-priori chosen real function called the kernel, and satisfying ∫ _K_ ( _x_ ) _dx_ < ∞ and ∫ _K_ ( _x_ ) _dx_ = 1.

Bieriens (1994) analyses the asymptotic property of this estimator, and shows that it is asymptotically normal, that is: where _V_ ( _x_ ) depends on the characteristics of the kernel function _K_ ( _x_ ) .

Bierens shows that the specific choice of the kernel function is not crucial: any Gaussian kernel is relevant. More important is the choice of the bandwidth that controls the trade-off between bias and variance of the estimated trade effects. Since the RTA variables are discrete variables (number of years of participation), we choose a bandwidth γ _n_ =1 so as to smooth trade effects over a one-year period. Bierens (1994) describes in detail how to use equation (13) to directly build the Confidence Interval of the estimated trade effects.

# **3 Empirical Analysis**

In this section, we present and discuss the data used to evaluate the trade effect of the seven developing RTAs under consideration.

## **3.1 Data and estimation issues**

Our database comes from Rose (2003) completed with data on export price index from IFS. We divided the export values by the export price indices to obtain export quantities. The final database is an unbalanced panel containing 56 exporter and 90 importer countries over the period 1960-1999 (see the list in Appendix 2). It contains no zero trade flow and only 8% of export values are missing. We thus use a simple regression model to estimate the gravity models (7) and (8). Since we are using fixed effects, the estimators are not biased because of the unbalancedness of the database; however, we use the Huber/White estimator of the variance to correct for the potential heteroscedasticity problem.

6
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