Figure 2: The Effect of VAT Rebates on the Use of Electronic Payment Technology Regression Discontinuity Estimates and Month-on-Month Growth Rates A. RD Estimation B. Month-on-Month Growth Rates I. Number of Card Transactions <!-- Start of picture text --> RD (Quadratic): 0.50 (0.06)RD (Linear): 0.52 (0.04) Reform-Month ⇒<br>Growth Rate<br>⇐ August 2014 VAT Rebates<br>of up to 4 ppt Enter Into Effect<br>-.1 0 .1 .2 .3 .4<br>Pre-Reform Post-Reform<br>Mean Pre Reform (0.011) vs Mean Post Reform (0.018): ttest p-value (0.530)<br>Month of Introduction (0.439) vs Mean All Other Months (0.013): ttest p-value (0.000)<br>-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Mean Pre Reform (0.011) vs Month of Introduction (0.439): ttest p-value (0.000)<br>Weeks to reform Randomization Inference p-value: (0.000)<br>II. Volume of Card Transactions<br>RD (Linear): 0.28 (0.02) Reform-Month ⇒<br>RD (Quadratic): 0.29 (0.03)<br>Growth Rate<br>⇐ August 2014 VAT Rebates<br>of up to 4 ppt Enter Into Effect<br>-.1 0 .1 .2<br>Pre-Reform Post-Reform<br>Mean Pre Reform (0.012) vs Mean Post Reform (0.024): ttest p-value (0.343)<br>Month of Introduction (0.233) vs Mean All Other Months (0.015): ttest p-value (0.000)<br>-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Mean Pre Reform (0.012) vs Month of Introduction (0.233): ttest p-value (0.000)<br>Weeks to reform Randomization Inference p-value: (0.000)<br>III. Number of POS<br>⇐ Reform-Month<br>Growth Rate<br>RD (Linear): 0.10 (0.01)<br>RD (Quadratic): 0.09 (0.01)<br>⇐ August 2014 VAT Rebates<br>of up to 4 ppt Enter Into Effect<br>-.05 0 .05 .1<br>Pre-Reform Post-Reform<br>Mean Pre Reform (0.011) vs Mean Post Reform (0.014): ttest p-value (0.740)<br>Month of Introduction (0.058) vs Mean All Other Months (0.012): ttest p-value (0.000)<br>-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Mean Pre Reform (0.011) vs Month of Introduction (0.058): ttest p-value (0.000)<br>Weeks to reform Randomization Inference p-value: (0.136)<br>IV. Number of Firms with a POS<br>⇐ Reform-Month<br>Growth Rate<br>RD (Linear): 0.02 (0.01)<br>RD (Quadratic): 0.04 (0.01)<br>⇐ August 2014 VAT Rebates<br>of up to 4 ppt Enter Into Effect<br>-.02 -.01 0 .01 .02 .03<br>Pre-Reform Post-Reform<br>Mean Pre Reform (0.005) vs Mean Post Reform (0.007): ttest p-value (0.667)<br>Month of Introduction (0.009) vs Mean All Other Months (0.006): ttest p-value (0.086)<br>-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Mean Pre Reform (0.005) vs Month of Introduction (0.009): ttest p-value (0.137)<br>Weeks to reform Randomization Inference p-value: (0.373)<br>15<br>1.4<br>10<br>1.2 Density<br>1 5<br>.8<br>0<br>Log Number of Card Transactions .6<br>.4<br>15<br>8.5<br>10<br>Density<br>5<br>8<br>0<br>Log Volume of Card Transactions<br>7.5<br>15<br>11.3<br>10<br>11.2 Density<br>11.1 5<br>11<br>Log Number of POS 0<br>10.9<br>10.8<br>40<br>9.75<br>30<br>9.7<br>20<br>Density<br>9.65<br>10<br>9.6 0<br>Log Number of Firms with POS<br>9.55<br>9.5<br><!-- End of picture text --> Notes: Panel A implements an RD estimation around the time of introduction of the VAT rebates. The red dots represent the mean outcome in equally spaced weekly bins. The solid blue lines (grey areas) depict a fitted second-order polynomial (the corresponding 95 percent confidence intervals). The solid black line marks August 2014, when VAT rebates where introduced. The dotted black line marks August 2015, when the rebate rates were reduced. The notes display the estimate _γ_ 0 from equation 1 for an RD around August 2014. Standard errors are robust to heteroscedasticity. Panel B plots 27the distribution of monthly growth rates (log difference) between January 2011 and December 2015. The vertical red lines represent the growth rate corresponding to the month of introduction of VAT rebates (August 2014). This Figure is discussed in Section 4.2.