**Table 2: Regression Results of Shocks on Household Consumption in Rural Java, 1999/2000**

|**_Dependent Variable (log):_**||**totalp**|**ce**|||**nonfood**|**pce**|**foodpc**|**e**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**delay of onset**<br>**shock**<br>**(1)**|**post-onse**<br>**rainfall sh**<br>**(2)**|**t low**<br>**ock**|<br>**both**<br>**shock**<br>**(3)**|<br>**s**|**both**<br>**shock**<br>**(4)**|<br>**s**|**both**<br>**shock**<br>**(5)**|<br>**s**|
|**household size**|-0.145<br>***<br>|-0.145<br>|***|-0.145<br>|***|-0.136<br>|***|-0.148<br>|***|
||(0.008)|(0.009)||(0.008)||(0.011)||(0.008)||
|**age of head**|0.015<br>**|0.015|**|0.015|**|0.017|**|0.016|***|
||(0.006)|(0.006)||(0.006)||(0.008)||(0.006)||
|**age of head^2 (1/100)**|-0.015<br>***|-0.015|***|-0.015|***|-0.019|**|-0.015|***|
||(0.005)|(0.005)||(0.005)||(0.007)||(0.005)||
|**married head**|0.036|0.042||0.041||0.016||0.102||
||(0.077)|(0.076)||(0.077)||(0.086)||(0.078)||
|**female head**|-0.019|-0.015||-0.016||0.007||0.012||
||(0.077)|(0.076)||(0.076)||(0.079)||(0.079)||
|**highest education of head: elementary**|0.091<br>**|0.086|**|0.087|**|0.172|***|0.039||
||(0.044)|(0.042)||(0.042)||(0.051)||(0.045)||
|**highest education of head: jr. high school**|0.214<br>***|0.206|***|0.207|***|0.358|***|0.123||
||(0.071)|(0.070)||(0.070)||(0.085)||(0.075)||
|**highest education of head: high school**|0.506<br>***|0.502|***|0.503|***|0.786|***|0.300|***|
||(0.084)|(0.083)||(0.083)||(0.093)||(0.087)||
|**highest education of head: university**|0.212<br>**|0.205|**|0.205|**|0.350|***|0.098||
||(0.099)|(0.095)||(0.095)||(0.117)||(0.088)||
|**Central Java province (33)**|-0.072<br>|-0.055<br>||-0.057<br>||-0.007<br>||-0.075<br>||
||(0.076)|(0.073)||(0.073)||(0.097)||(0.068)||
|**Yogyakarta province (34)**|-0.038|0.004||0.005||0.044||-0.023||
||(0.114)|(0.106)||(0.112)||(0.134)||(0.115)||
|**East Java province (35)**|-0.071|-0.063||-0.061||-0.016||-0.106|**|
||(0.058)|(0.057)||(0.056)||(0.088)||(0.047)||
|**hh utilizes electricity**|0.158<br>**<br>|0.188<br>|***|0.188<br>|***|0.441<br>|***|0.060<br>||
||(0.066)|(0.062)||(0.062)||(0.106)||(0.063)||
|**hh owns farmland**|0.114<br>***|0.117|***|0.116|***|0.131|***|0.080|**|
||(0.032)|(0.032)||(0.032)||(0.046)||(0.033)||
|**hh non-farm business**|0.172<br>***|0.170|***|0.170|***|0.228|***|0.131|***|
||(0.035)|(0.034)||(0.034)||(0.044)||(0.034)||
|**hh farm business - rice most valuable crop**|0.002|0.056||0.041||0.072||0.034||
||(0.042)|(0.047)||(0.046)||(0.065)||(0.042)||
|**hh farm business - other crop most valuable**|-0.046<br>|-0.047<br>||-0.046<br>||-0.117<br>|**|0.003<br>||
||(0.044)|(0.046)||(0.045)||(0.054)||(0.048)||
|**shock: delay of monsoon onset (>1sd)**|-0.042|||-0.035||0.103||-0.132|**|
||(0.064)|||(0.065)||(0.084)||(0.061)||
|**shock: post-onset low rainfall (<-2sd)**||-0.036||-0.027||-0.034||-0.019||
|||(0.054)||(0.055)||(0.076)||(0.049)||
|**hh farm rice X delay shock**|0.024|||0.072||0.037||0.118|*|
||(0.062)|||(0.072)||(0.114)||(0.063)||
|**hh farm rice X low rainfall shock**||-0.120|**|-0.142|**|-0.256|**|-0.083||
|||(0.059)||(0.067)||(0.104)||(0.057)||
|**constant**|11.972<br>***|11.946|***|11.952|***|10.431|***|11.574|***|
||(0.199)|(0.193)||(0.191)||(0.277)||(0.170)||
|**N**|2159|2159||2159||2159||2159||
|**r2**|0.196|0.2||0.201||0.189||0.175||
|**legend:p<0.10 *, p<0.05 **, p<0.01 ***; stan**|**dard errors inpa **|**rentheses**|**above**|||||||

# _<u>Role of Community Programs</u>_

As noted earlier, vulnerability of an individual or a household to livelihood stress depends on both exposure and the ability to cope with and recover from the shock. The ability to cope is largely determined by access to resources including community-level infrastructure and 13