# c. Changes in technology and changes in urbanization

- d. Urbanization level and sector composition

<!-- Start of picture text --> < global mean(GDP pc) - GDP pc = (PPP, PWT7.0)<br>'BWA'<br>'RWA'<br>'MOZ'<br>'BDI' 'NPL'<br>'KOR''ZWE''SDN''SWZ''IDN''TZA''BGD''MYS''CHN''GMB''KEN''HTI'MWI''LAO''LSO''CMR''AFG' ' BEN''MLI''NER''MRT' 'UGA'<br>'KHM''NAM''PNG''VNM''ALB''ZAF''URY''CHL''PHL''BOL''MLT''BRA''MUS''BGR''ROM''NIC''GHA''PAN''GTM''DOM''SYR''PER''PRY''COL''LBR''MNG''PAK''ECU''SLV''SLE''GUY''TUR''HND''CIV''JOR''EGY''FJI''THA''IND''SEN''TUN''COG' 'CAF''ZAR''ZMB''DZA' 'MAR' 'TGO'<br>'LKA'<br>.02 .04 .06 .08 .1<br>Growth rate of aver yrs school (high + college)<br>SSA NSSA<br>.06<br>.04<br>.02<br>0<br>Growth rate of urban share<br>-.02<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 2010 cross-section (< Mean(Global GDP pc))<br>'MLT' 'URY'<br>'CHL'<br>'K'J OR' 'BRA'<br>'BWA''ZAF''COG''PAN''BGR''DOM''PER''COL''TUN''ECU''MYS''TUR''DZA''SLV''BOL' 'MNG''PRY'<br>'AGO' 'MAR''NIC''SYR' 'GMB'<br>'ROM''CHN''HND''GTM''PHL''FJI''IDN' 'ALB''CIV' 'GHA' 'LBR'<br>'MUS''NAM''LSO''ZMB''EGY''THA''GIN''IND''SEN''ZWE''BTN' ' BGDGUY'VNM''MRT''PAK' ' 'SDN' 'TZA''MDG''LAO''MOZ' 'ZAR' 'SLE' 'CAF'<br>'SWZ' 'LKA''TCD' 'KEN' 'UGA' 'AFG''MWI''NPL''RWA''KHM' 'ETH'<br>'PNG'<br>0 .2 .4 .6<br>Value added in agriculture (% GDP)<br>SSA NSSA<br>1<br>.8<br>.6<br>.4<br>Urban share<br>.2<br>0<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Work in progress by J. Vernon Henderson, Mark Roberts, and Adam Storeygard.

The graphs in figure 2, for developing countries defined as having less than the mean real income per capita in 1970, distinguish Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from the rest of the world (NSSA). Part (a) concerns a measure of effective technology: the average years of high school and college of the adult population. There, the urbanization level in 2010 strongly correlates with effective technology, and Sub-Saharan Africa follows the same pattern as the rest of the world. Part (b) reveals a strong relationship between urbanization and income per capita for the rest of the world but not for Sub-Saharan Africa. Part (c) shows the long difference from 1970–2010 for changes in effective technology and urbanization. The change relationships are positive but weaker, and for income changes not shown, they are insignificant. These three graphs together suggest two things. First, effective technology levels correlate better with and potentially lead urbanization. Second, while changes over time corroborate that urbanization relates to development, many other factors influence changes in urbanization. We will discuss some of these later.

The biggest surprise concerns part (d). For the rest of the world, urbanization is associated with a reduced role of agriculture and increased role of industry (not shown). But for Sub-Saharan Africa, that is not the case. Some African countries are 40–45 percent urban (about China’s level of urbanization), with small shares in agriculture, and others are at the same level of urbanization, with large shares. Most of Sub-Saharan Africa has yet to develop modern industry. Cities are based on natural resource development—in particular, agriculture. Preindustry urbanization seems associated with consumer cities rather than producer cities. Cities provide retail, wholesale, and personal services, where resource rents are spent. Box 1 offers evidence.

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