rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Bosnia and Herzegovina's
            surprising export performance : back to the past in a new
            veil but will It last
Bosnia and Herzegovina's industrial
            restructuring, as seen through the lenses of foreign trade
            performance and its sustainability, has taken off. Bosnia
            and Herzegovinas exports have displayed strong dynamics
            outstripping the pace of growth of exports in almost each
            year over 1997-2007 combined with the shift to higher value
            added exportables. Although its performance during the
            period 1996-2000 following the end of war in late 1995 was
            not surprising, given relatively low foreign direct
            investment inflows and weaknesses in the investment climate,
            its subsequent export performance has come as a surprise.
            Industrial restructuring, as revealed in the pattern of
            exports, consisted in rebuilding and modernizing the
            pre-independence industrial base built around wood products,
            metalworking, clothing, and automotive products. Although
            exports still remain relatively low in terms of both per
            capita and gross domestic product in comparison with other
            Balkan economies, there has been significant change in their
            composition, indicating a growing presence of more processed
            manufactures and the participation of local firms in global
            networks of production and distribution, mostly as
            independent suppliers. Firms with foreign participation have
            been one of the levers of export upgrading and expansion.
            The dominance of joint ventures as a mode of entry of
            foreign capital is worrisome for two reasons: first,
            domestic firms may not have access to the most recent
            technologies and knowhow; and second, it is always
            indicative of weaknesses of a domestic economic regime. This
            also raises concerns about the future sustainability of
            export performance.
Assessing ex ante the poverty and
            distributional impact of the global crisis in a developing
            country : a micro-simulation approach with application to Bangladesh
Measuring the poverty and distributional
            impact of the global crisis for developing countries is not
            easy, given the multiple channels of impact and the limited
            availability of real-time data. Commonly-used approaches are
            of limited use in addressing questions like who are being
            affected by the crisis and by how much, and who are
            vulnerable to falling into poverty if the crisis deepens?
            This paper develops a simple micro-simulation method,
            modifying models from existing economic literature, to
            measure the poverty and distributional impact of
            macroeconomic shocks by linking macro projections with
            pre-crisis household data. The approach is then applied to
            Bangladesh to assess the potential impact of the slowdown on
            poverty and income distribution across different groups and
            regions. A validation exercise using past data from
            Bangladesh finds that the model generates projections that
            compare well with actual estimates from household data. The
            results can inform the design of crisis monitoring tools and
            policies in Bangladesh, and also illustrate the kind of
            analysis that is possible in other developing countries with
            similar data availability.
Will the clean development mechanism
            mobilize anticipated levels of mitigation
Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed
            countries can only tap mitigation opportunities in
            developing countries by investing in projects under the
            Clean Development Mechanism. Yet Clean Development Mechanism
            investments have so far failed to reach many of the
            high-potential sectors identified by the Intergovernmental
            Panel on Climate Change. This raises doubts about whether
            the Clean Development Mechanism can generate an adequate
            supply of credits from the limited areas where it has proved
            successful. This paper examines the current trajectory of
            mitigation projects entering the Clean Development Mechanism
            pipeline and projects it forward under the assumption that
            the diffusion of the Clean Development Mechanism will follow
            a path similar to other innovations. Projections are then
            compared with pre-Clean Development Mechanism predictions of
            the mechanisms potential market size to discern whether
            limits on the types of projects entering the pipeline have
            limited the expected supply of certified emission
            reductions. Parameter tests suggest that this is not the
            case and that currently identified Clean Development
            Mechanism investments will generate offsets in excess of
            early model predictions. In particular, under favorable
            circumstances, the mechanism is on track to deliver an
            average annual flow of roughly 700 million certified
            emission reductions by the close of 2012 and nearly to 1,100
            million certified emission reductions by 2020.
Long-term fiscal risks and
            sustainability in an oil-rich country : the case of Russia
Russia entered the global crisis with
            strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal
            and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis
            shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in
            2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the
            global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically
            altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and
            fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on
            a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis
            thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal
            reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will
            nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment
            in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures
            will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of
            GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to
            keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5
            percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure
            needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability.
            Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain
            its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI)
            equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper,
            its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path.
            The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit
            is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009
            actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP,
            this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment
            over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social
            security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes
            represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.
Till geography do us part
            prolegomena to an economic and monetary union between the
            Dominican Republic and Haiti
This paper offers a preliminary
            assessment of the potential benefits and costs of an
            economic and monetary union (EMU) between the Dominican
            Republic and Haiti -- two countries sharing the same island
            but whose history is one of conflict and divergent economic
            prospects in recent decades. After a brief review of the
            historical context, it examines the nature of these
            potential benefits and costs. It then conducts a preliminary
            analysis (using basic statistical techniques) of some key
            criteria for the formation of an economic and monetary union
            between the two countries. A more formal analysis of
            business cycle synchronization, based on basic and extended
            integrated vector auto-regression models with exogenous
            variables (VARX), is developed next. Overall, the analysis
            suggests that at this stage several economic criteria are
            not satisfied for the two countries to fully benefit from an
            economic and monetary union. At the same time, however, the
            endogeneity of most of these criteria (including the degree
            of business cycle synchronization) militates in favor of an
            aggressive medium-term agenda for integration between them.
Quantitative value chain analysis :
            an application to Malawi
The Government of Malawi has since 2005
            been pursuing a growth strategy mainly based on increasing
            the volume of agricultural exports. This entails that Malawi
            should endeavor to improve the competitiveness of its
            agricultural commodities so as to gain an increasing share
            of the regional and international markets. This paper
            analyzes the competitiveness of the country's key
            agricultural commodities -- tobacco, maize, cotton, and rice
            -- using prices that prevailed in the 2007/08 agricultural
            season. The paper employs a quantitative value chain
            methodology to assess the country's prospects for
            competitiveness and suggest weak links along the value chain
            that require attention in order to improve trade
            competitiveness. The results indicate that Malawi has some
            competitive advantage in the production and exportation of
            tobacco and cotton, and that this mostly derives from its
            low labor cost advantage. However, the results indicate that
            based on 2007/08 prices and costs, Malawi does not have
            competitive edge in maize and rice production for export. As
            such, Malawi would better pursue an import substitution
            strategy in these cereals, and perhaps only aim at the
            export market when regional market opportunities arise. Key
            factors that underpin Malawi's narrow competitiveness
            include the high cost of inorganic fertilizer and other
            inputs, low productivity, and the higher trader margins and
            intermediation costs along the value chains. Furthermore,
            farm gate prices in Malawi are higher than in other
            countries, and this undercuts its trade competitiveness.
Skills, exports, and the wages of
            five million Latin American workers
The returns to schooling or the skill
            premium is a key parameter in various literatures, including
            globalization and inequality and international migration.
            This paper explores the skill premium and its link to
            exports in Latin America, thus linking the skill premium to
            the emerging literature on the structure of trade and
            development. Using data on employment and wages for over
            five million workers in sixteen Latin American economies,
            the authors estimate national and industry-specific skill
            premiums and study some of their determinants. The evidence
            suggests that both country and industry characteristics are
            important in explaining skill premiums. The analysis also
            suggests that the incidence of exports within industries,
            the average income per capita within countries, and the
            relative abundance of skilled workers are related to the
            underlying industry and country characteristics that explain
            skill premiums. In particular, higher sectoral exports are
            positively linked with the skill premium at the industry
            level, a result that supports recent trade models linking
            exports with wages and the demand for skills.
The effects of school-based
            management in the Philippines : an initial assessment using
            administrative data
This paper estimates the effect of
            school-based management on student performance in the
            Philippines using the administrative dataset of all public
            schools in 23 school districts over a 3-year period,
            2003-2005. The authors test whether schools that received
            early school-based management interventions (training in
            school-based management and direct funding for school-based
            reforms) attained higher average test scores than those that
            did not receive such inputs. The analysis uses school-level
            overall composite test scores (comprising all subject areas
            tested) and test scores in three separate subject areas:
            English, math, and science. Their preferred estimator,
            difference-in-difference with propensity score matching,
            shows that the average treatment effect of participation in
            school-based management was higher by 1.5 percentage points
            for overall composite scores, 1.2 percentage points for math
            scores, 1.4 percentage points for English scores, and 1.8
            percentage points for science scores. These results suggest
            that the introduction of school-based management had a
            statistically significant, albeit small, overall positive
            effect on average school-level test scores in 23 school
            districts in the Philippines. The paper provides a first
            glimpse of the potential for school-based management in an
            East Asian context based on available administrative data.
            The authors suggest that the next order of research is to
            answer policy-related questions regarding the reforms: what
            aspects of the reform lead to desired results; are there
            differential effects across subpopulations; and what are the
            potential downsides to the reforms? The Philippines is
            embarking on a nation-wide implementation of school-based
            management and the authors recommend that mechanisms for
            rigorous evaluations be advanced simultaneously. Such
            evaluations should not only provide more accurate estimates
            of the effectiveness of the reforms, but also help answer
            policy-related questions regarding design and implementation
            of those reforms in different socio-cultural contexts.
A counterfactual analysis of the
            poverty impact of economic growth in Cameroon
The Government of Cameroon has declared
            poverty reduction through strong and sustainable economic
            growth the central objective of its socioeconomic policy.
            This paper uses available household survey data to assess
            the performance of the economy with respect to this
            objective over the period 1996-2007. The authors use
            counterfactual decompositions based on both the Shapley
            method and the generalized Oaxaca-Blinder framework to
            identify proximate factors that might explain differences in
            observed outcomes over time, across regions and households.
            The concept of pro-poorness provides a basis for a normative
            evaluation of these outcomes. The analysis of changes in the
            size distribution of economic welfare reveals that formal
            sector employment, access to credit, education, and urban
            residence are characteristics that bring significantly high
            returns to households. Employment in smallholder agriculture
            has a negative impact on welfare across quantiles. Economic
            growth was accompanied by significant poverty reduction
            between 1996 and 2001. But poverty barely decreased between
            2001 and 2007 due to very weak growth. Over the same period,
            household investment in human capital took a serious hit.
            Given the additional finding that the pattern of growth is
            characterized by urban bias and regional disparity, the
            overall assessment is that economic growth has been weakly
            pro-poor in Cameroon. There is therefore a need to
            re-examine and possibly reform the mechanisms governing the
            allocation of public resources designed to support
            individuals' efforts to improve their standard of living.
Going digital : credit effects of
            land registry computerization in India
Despite strong beliefs that property
            titling and registration will enhance credit access,
            empirical evidence in support of such effects remains scant.
            The gradual roll-out of computerization of land registry
            systems across Andhra Pradesh's 387 sub-registry
            offices allows us to combine quarterly administrative data
            on credit disbursed by all commercial banks for an
            eleven-year period (1997-2007) aggregated to the
            sub-registry office level with the date of shifting
            registration from manual to digital. Computerization had no
            credit effect in rural areas but led to increased
            credit-supply in urban ones. A marked increase of registered
            urban mortgages due to computerization supports the
            robustness of the result. At the same time, estimated
            impacts from reduction of the stamp duty are much larger,
            suggesting that, without further changes in the property
            rights system, impacts of computerization will remain marginal.
Measuring financial access around
            the world
This paper introduces a new set of
            financial access indicators for 139 countries across the
            globe and describes the results of a preliminary analysis of
            this data set. The new data set builds on previous work
            using a similar methodology. The new data set features
            broader country coverage and greater disaggregation by type
            of financial product and by type of institution supplying
            the product -- commercial banks, specialized state run
            savings and development banks, banks with mutual ownership
            structure (such as cooperatives), and microfinance
            institutions. The authors use the data set to conduct a
            rough estimation of the number of bank accounts in the world
            (6.2 billion) as well as the number of banked and unbanked
            individuals. In developed countries, they estimate 3.2
            accounts per adult and 81 percent of adults banked. By
            contrast, in developing countries, they estimate only 0.9
            accounts per adult and 28 percent banked. In regression
            analysis, they find that measures of development and
            physical infrastructure are positively associated with the
            indicators of deposit account, loan, and branch penetration.
Russian trade and foreign direct
            investment policy at the crossroads
This paper summarizes the estimates of
            what Russia will get from World Trade Organization accession
            and why. A key finding is the estimate that Russia will gain
            about $53 billion per year in the medium term from World
            Trade Organization accession and $177 billion per year in
            the long term, due largely to its own commitments to reform
            its own business services sectors.  The paper summarizes the
            principal reform commitments that Russia has undertaken as
            part of its World Trade Organization accession negotiations,
            and compares them with those of other countries that have
            acceded to the World Trade Organization. It finds that the
            Russian commitments represent a liberal offer to the members
            of the World Trade Organization for admission, but they are
            typical of other transition countries that have acceded to
            the World Trade Organization. The authors discuss the
            outstanding issues in the Russian World Trade Organizaiton
            accession negotiations, and explain why Russian accession
            will result in the elimination of the Jackson-Vanik
            Amendment against Russia. They discuss Russian policies to
            attract foreign direct investment, including an assessment
            of the impact of the 2008 law on strategic sectors and the
            increased role of the state in the economy. Finally, the
            authors assess the importance of Russian accession to Russia
            and to the international trading community, and suggestions
            for most efficiently meeting the governments
            diversification objective.
Time allocation in rural households
            : the indirect effects of conditional cash transfer programs
Conditional cash transfers are being
            heralded as effective tools against the intergenerational
            transmission of poverty. There is substantial evidence on
            the positive effects of these transfers. Analysts are only
            now beginning to investigate the indirect effects these
            programs generate. This paper examines the effect of a
            gender-targeted conditional cash transfer program on the
            time allocation of mothers in rural program-eligible
            households. Using a fixed effects difference-in-differences
            estimator, the author finds that program eligibility is
            associated with an increase of 120 minutes of housework per
            typical school day by mothers of eligible children in the
            stipend district when compared with mothers of eligible
            children in the non-stipend district. There is a 100-minute
            reduction in the amount of time mothers report spending on
            childrens needs. The intent-to-treat effect of the program
            suggests no change in the amount of time spent on paid work
            or sleep.
Gender-targeted conditional cash
            transfers : enrollment, spillover effects and instructional quality
This paper considers the effects of a
            gender-targeted conditional cash transfer program for girls
            in classes 6 to 8. It finds that the program is successful
            in increasing the enrollment of girls in classes 6 to 8 as
            intended. It also finds evidence to suggest that the program
            generated positive spillover effects on the enrollment of
            boys. This success does, however, appear to be poised to
            come at a cost. The student-teacher ratio in treated
            districts is also climbing. This suggests that in the
            absence of active steps to address these increasing
            student-teacher ratios, instructional quality is likely to
            suffer. The success of the program appears to be driven by
            enrollment increases in urban schools. This suggests the
            need for a reassessment of the targeting criteria in rural schools.