rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
of storage are extremely high and make it difficult to justify any level of public storage in the country without significant overall loss in welfare.

The outline of this paper is as follows. After the main features of India’s wheat market are outlined in Section 2, Section 3 develops the model representing India’s wheat market and its relation to the world market. A representation of welfare in this framework is proposed, taking into account the observed preference for food price stability (Section 4). A core assumption is that the cost of risk to policy makers rises more than proportionately with deviations from the mean price. Section 5 begins by considering the mathematical representation of current policies and the design of alternative stabilization policies. The objective function and the structure of the model make it possible to identify a set of optimal policies that minimize the costs of any given degree of volatility. Simple rules of intervention are considered as well. Section 6 develops a numerical calibration for the model and presents the numerical results. Section 7 presents the conclusions.

# **2 India’s wheat market**

India has undergone a major transformation since the 1960s, from being a highly insecure food importer to a consistent net-exporter of agricultural products (Gulati, Jain, and Hoda 2013), and from a policy framework that discriminated against agriculture to a relatively more neutral domestic policy regime (Pursell, Gulati, and Gupta 2009). The evolution of India’s wheat market reflects this profound transformation—from being a chronic food-aid recipient to an often substantial net-exporter (Figure 1, left panel).

**Figure 1: Wheat trade and stock levels in India**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Stock level<br>Stock-to-use ratio<br>1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010<br>Market year Market year<br>Source: USDA 2013.<br>25<br>45.5<br>5<br>20<br>36.4<br>15<br>27.3<br>0<br>10<br>18.2<br>Net trade (X-M, million ton) -5 Beginning stocks (million ton) 5 9.1<br>0 0<br><!-- End of picture text --> 7
customers (sales from the new customers) increased by 9.7 percent (14 percent) per month more for merchants with contactless technology, and the effect is statistically significant. This result suggests that the positive effect reflects real business growth rather than the substitution effect where consumers simply switch from cash to card payments. Finally, I explore the increase of the contactless payment limit from 30 euros to 50 euros to investigate the substitution between card payments and other means of payment. I find evidence that increasing the digital payment limit accelerates substitution between digital payments and other payment methods including cash. In addition, the increase of the contactless payment limit to 50 euros significantly accelerates the substitution of sales from contact card to contactless card payments.

This paper is, to the best of my knowledge, the first study of how the sales of merchants with the latest digital payment respond to an outbreak and an increase of payment limit relative to the merchants without this technology using firm-level data. It provides a better and more comprehensive understanding of how merchants with the latest payment technology mitigate the impact of epidemic shocks and how the increase in digital payment limit accelerates the substitution between digital payment sales and the sales from the other means of payment. The current paper contributes to the emerging literature on digitization and fintech with the focus on non-cash payment (Fung et al., 2012; Tr ̈utsch, 2014; Bachas et al., 2018; Agarwal et al., 2019; Bounie and Camara, 2020). Fung et al. (2012) and Tr ̈utsch (2014) use survey data on consumer payment behavior to examine the impact of contactless payments on consumer spending. The authors show that contactless payments increase the spending for debit and credit cards payment and reduce on average the total value and volume of cash usage. Using firm-level transaction data, Agarwal et al. (2019) and Bounie and Camara (2020) investigate the causal impact of digital payment technologies on merchant sales. They find that merchants with the latest digital payment technology significantly increase sales, especially for small merchants and new entrepreneurs. My paper provides novel insight on the real effects of digitization. In particular, the results highlight the positive impact of contactless payment technology, relative to other payment means, on promoting business growth, especially in the time of a global pandemic where barrier gestures is required. My findings suggest that having a new technology (e.g., contactless payment) continues to drive retail traffic and attract new customers (Agarwal et al., 2019). There is little literature that examines the relationship between a merchant’s acceptance of new payment technology and its sales. My paper also contributes to the literature on technology innovation acceptance and diffusion and its impact on various economic areas (see among others Doms et al., 1997; Greenwood et al., 1997; Galor and Tsiddon, 1997; Caselli and 3
23 interest rates has an impact on the volume of informal credit. This is perhaps because the financial technologies to scrve different clients also vary very much.

In the informal financial system, moneylenders rarely act as intermediaries between savers and investors (Sanderatne, 1989; Bouman, 1984). Moneylending has been characterized as unsocial and exploitative in Sri Lanka. Hence, the activity of moneylenders is often clandestine and restricted to known persons. Moneylenders usually operate with their own funds, and the average saver rarely considers them an alternative source of saving.

Data relating to the purpose-wise distribution of informal lending also indicate that it is predominantly obtained for so-called nonproductive purposes, such as family ceremonies and emergencies. Formal sector financial institutions seldom are willing to make loans for these purposes. on the other hand, the bulk of the credit used for agricultural, industrial, and other productive activities does come from formal sources. For instance, according to a Central Bank survey of planned investment in the corporate sector, 'other sources" (which includes informal borrowing) contributed less than 5 percent of the total financial needs of the corporate sector in 1983/85 (Central Bank, 1986). The Marga Institute survey cited above found that moneylenders provided only 1.3 percent of the total borrowings of informal sector businesses in Colombo.

In summary, Sri Lanka offers no evidence that funds flow freely and swiftly between formal and informal markets in response to interest rate differentials. It is therefore unlikely that the substitution from UMM would have been of significant magnitude to counterbalance the significant increase in institutional savings/lending that resulted from the substitution of bank deposits for currency holdings and real assets supplemented with the wealth effect on demand for financial assets following the 1977 reforms.
**<u>Table 1: Number and size of registered parcels by type</u>**

||**Total**|**Kigali city**|**Southern**|**Western**|**Northern**|**Eastern**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Total no. of parcels**|||||||
|Total no. of registered parcels|11,420,885|390,788|3,217,847|3,157,232|2,668,212|1,986,806|
|of which residential|1,341,467|134,203|227,046|419,683|147,693|412,842|
|of which commercial|169,709|4,369|16,671|117,303|17,272|14,094|
|of which agricultural|7,344,802|198,262|1,997,104|1,919,423|1,951,886|1,278,127|
|of which forest|916,359|13,875|262,232|322,117|267,162|50,973|
|of which admin./science/social|29,749|1,891|7,503|9,128|4,401|6,826|
|of which not categorized|1,618,799|38,188|707,291|369,578|279,798|223,944|
|Parcel size (ha)|0.18|0.18|0.17|0.13|0.11|0.38|
|.. for residential land|0.13|0.09|0.15|0.11|0.13|0.16|
|.. for agric. land|0.19|0.20|0.17|0.12|0.11|0.42|
|**Share of parcels by claimant type**|||||||
|Natural person|0.80|0.86|0.72|0.83|0.83|0.81|
|Non-natural person|0.05|0.02|0.09|0.03|0.03|0.03|
|Claimant not yet registered|0.16|0.12|0.19|0.14|0.14|0.16|
|**Share of parcels by claimant’s gender**|||||||
|Female only|0.25|0.23|0.26|0.25|0.23|0.24|
|Male only|0.14|0.17|0.19|0.13|0.10|0.14|
|Male and femalejointly|0.61|0.60|0.55|0.62|0.67|0.62|

_Source:_ Rwanda Natural Resource Authority (RNRA), Land Administration Information System (LAIS). _Note:_ Gender of owners is reported only for parcels registered in the name of natural persons.

16
better pedagogical conditions (e.g., libraries, computers), curricular reform, and improvements in teachers’ training and working conditions (e.g., related to salaries, working hours, and the lack of didactic materials).

**_Table 8: Training of Secondary School Teachers_**

||2004|2005|2006|
|---|---|---|---|
|er of New Students Admitted in:<br>Total Numb||||
|Teacher Training in Public Universities|151|526|9036|
|Teacher Training in Private Universities|57|122|568|
|_All Courses in Public and Private Universities_|_6579_|_8756_|_18316_|
|Total Number of Students Registered in:||||
|Teacher Training in Public Universities|771|1522|16860|
|Teacher Training in Private Universities|430|629|530|
|_All Courses in Public and Private Universities_|_22256_|_28298_|_43233_|
|Total Number of Graduates from:||||
|Teacher Training in Public Universities|358|293|1202|
|Teacher Training in Private Universities|6|265|104|
|_All Courses in Public and Private Universities_|_2878_|_3615_|_4580_|

Source: Ministry of Education and Culture statistics on higher education.

# **4.  Filling the Gap:  Imports of Professional Skills**

_In some areas, such as auditing, foreign professionals dominate. Cross-border imports of professional services are insignificant._ _The explicit barriers on foreign professionals have shifted from discretion to quotas but have not led to a less restrictive regime. With proper incentives, foreign professionals could help develop local skills, directly through training or indirectly through spillovers in the workplace. A key question for policy: what form should the policy incentives take – from a welfare and/or political economy perspective? Foreigners can introduce better/new services into the market place. Also they can stimulate demand for services in firms which have never perceived that they need say IT, auditing and other services – i.e. break the chicken-or-egg trap. How could this be encouraged?_ The exact number of foreign professionals working in Mozambique is not available. From our survey in Maputo, we gathered information on the numbers of professionals working in various professional services sectors. The approximate numbers that we found are as follows. The total number of foreign professionals working in accounting and auditing in the big 4 and the other foreign-owned firms is about 30. Among partners in those firms, almost 100% are foreigners. In domestic accounting and auditing firms, all professionals are Mozambican. In large law offices and in legal departments of the big 4, the total number of foreign lawyers is about 20. In engineering consulting firms, the number of foreign engineers is between 10 and 15. In medical services, as of 2003 there 26
Chile and find that increasing the amount of time that students spend in school diminishes the likelihood of adolescent pregnancy by reducing risky sexual behavior.

The FSD format has been incorporated gradually since 1997. According to official statistics from the Ministry of Education, 80 percent of primary schools, or some 6,834 institutions, had joined the system by 2011 (figure 1).<sup>18</sup> The increase of the school day involved adding 232 hours per year for third to sixth graders, 144 hours annually for seventh to eighth graders, 261 for ninth and tenth graders, and 174 for students in their last two years of high school. In addition, as a consequence of the increase in lecture hours, schools had to allocate additional time for lunch. This may imply a positive income effect for those families. Therefore, the effective time of children at schools increased from 8 a.m. through 1 p.m.; to 8 a.m. through 4 p.m.. However, the program’s implementation was gradual. Restrictions linked to operational considerations and infrastructure meant that the incorporation of schools into the program was not instantaneous or homogenous.

Operational costs are financed through a 30% increase in government subsidies<sup>19</sup> while infrastructure-related costs are financed through the “capital contribution” subsidy, which it assigned to schools by the government through competition.<sup>20</sup> Schools that did not have a full school day prior to 1998 can apply for support to acquire the infrastructure necessary to

> 18. The Ministry of Education projected that FSD would be universal in municipal schools by 2007 and in private subsidized schools by 2010. However, the process of incorporating municipal schools into the system did not end in 2007, which led to the extension of the period through 2010. The law requires that publicly funded schools created after 1997 begin operations with a full school day.

> 19. This contribution is received once the Ministry of Education approves the implementation of FSD in the school. 20. In order to apply for this subsidy, the school must participate in a capital contribution  competition held by Ministry of Education, which normally takes place twice a year. Each school is evaluated on the basis of socioeconomic vulnerability and the funds required for each student to join the program. Each component is assigned a score and the projects with the highest scores are funded.

10
Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World? Maurizio Bussolo, Rafael E. De Hoyos, Denis Medvedev and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe<sup>∗</sup> _Development Prospects Group The World Bank_

> ∗ The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. We are grateful to Hans Timmer and seminar participants at the UNU-WIDER project meeting on ‘Southern Engines of Growth, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa’, Beijing, China, 12-13 of January 2007 for helpful contributions, comments, and suggestions. Corresponding author: Rafael De Hoyos, Development Prospects Group, The World Bank, 1818 H Street Washington, DC., email address: <u>rdehoyos@worldbank.org</u>
to $3,746 per year. The average WTA per year to forego open grazing is $46 and the median is $20. In making these calculations we drop the highest and lowest 3 observations as potential outliers (<1% of observations).

Non-CF forest user communities on average have 296 households (maximum 1,881) and mean forest area per household is 0.75 hectares (maximum 9.25). We assume that respondent opportunity costs represented by WTA depend primarily on factors other than forest area, such as outside income-earning opportunities and non-forest fodder production/grazing possibilities and divide each household WTA by the mean forest per household of 0.75. This give us the respondentspecific WTA per hectare of forest, which is a potential estimate of the average opportunity cost should open grazing be eliminated. We then recalibrate these values to be per ton of CO2 sequestered rather than emitted, using the IPCC (2000) centroid value of 1.647 tons of CO2 per hectare.

With the above assumptions, we find that the mean WTA is $37.24 per ton of CO2 and at the median, the estimated opportunity cost of grazing closure is $16.19. These costs are similar to the costs of reducing carbon via fuelwood collection restrictions in non-CF settings.

# <u>Carbon Supply Shifters</u>

Table 4 presents an OLS regression of the potential carbon supply shifters in Table 2 on WTA of CF member households for reducing fuelwood collections; this approach allows us to consider heterogeneous effects and explain the distribution of WTA values in terms of potential carbon supply shifters. As our goal is to explain the distribution of WTA estimates rather than estimate the cost of carbon sequestration measured as CO2, we do not constrain WTA estimates to be positive. We therefore assume normal distributions. Estimates assuming lognormally distributed payment vehicle and fuelwood reduction attributes are presented in the Appendix.

30
February 2021. The R<sup>2</sup> values for these models are still substantial, however, and range from 22 to 26 percent for the incidence of income declines and are 15 percent for current employment.

3. When limiting the sample to urban regions only, real-time indicators are far more successful in explaining within-region variation in income declines and employment between April 2020 and February 2021. The R<sup>2</sup> values for these models range from 29 to 55 percent for the incidence of income declines and are 33 percent for current employment. Improved predictive performance in urban regions appears to be partly due to the greater predictive accuracy of Google search terms.

4. Google mobility measures are strongly associated with work stoppage and changes in current employment, as well as declines in farm, non-farm enterprise, and wage income, during both the initial phase and the subsequent period.

5. Google search terms related to food, money, jobs, and religion were also strong predictors of income declines and work stoppage during the initial stage of the crisis. Google searches related to food, assistance, religion, and in some cases exercise were strong predictors of changes in the prevalence of income declines and employment as the crisis evolved.

6. In general, Google search and mobility information are far more predictive of income and employment changes than satellite data from vegetation, pollution, and night-time lights. However, vegetation levels strongly predict a measure of food insecurity and the share of students that quit school, while pollution is a moderately strong predictor of work stoppage, current employment, and non-farm and wage changes. Night-time lights were not selected by LASSO in any of the predictive models.

Taken together, our findings suggest that these real-time indicators, particularly Google mobility and search terms, predict a respectable amount of the variation in changes in wellbeing. The signs – positive or negative correlation – are often intuitive, especially when explaining variation over time. Real-time indicators were better able to predict cross-sectional variation in initial crisis impacts, measured as retrospective changes, than intertemporal variation in outcomes over repeated waves of survey data. In addition, the real-time indicators were better suited for predicting income losses than gains. The importance of different indicators also varies widely by context, highlighting the benefits of training models that 5
Kollmuss, Anja and Lane, Jessica (2009), Carbon Offsetting and Air Travel, Part 1: CO2 Emissions Calculations. SEI Discussion paper, Stockholm Environment Institute, May.

Kollmuss, Anja and Crimmins, Allison Myers (2009), Carbon Offsetting and Air Travel, Part 2: Non-CO2 Emissions Calculations. SEI Discussion paper, Stockholm Environment Institute, June.

Lee, David S. (2009), Aviation and Climate Change: Science. In Gössling, Stefan and Upham, Paul (eds.) (2009), _Climate Change and Aviation_ . London: Earthscan, pp. 27-67.

Lee, David S. et al (2009), Aviation and Global Climate Change in the 21<sup>st</sup> Century. _Atmospheric Environment_ , 43, 3520-3537.

Margolis, Joshua D., Elfenbein, Hillary A. and Walsh, James P. (2009), Does it Pay to be Good ... and Does it Matter? A Meta Analysis of the Relationship between Corporate Social and Financial Performance. Working paper, Harvard/Washington University/University of Michigan.

McCollum, David, Gould, Gregory and Greene, David (2009), _Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Aviation and Marine Transportation: Mitigation Potential and Policies_ . Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

Peeters, Paul and Williams, Victoria (2009), Calculating Emissions and Radiative Forcing. In Gössling, Stefan and Upham, Paul (eds.) (2009), _Climate Change and Aviation_ . London: Earthscan, pp. 69-87.

Rosendahl, K. E. and Strand, J. (2011), Leakage from the Clean Development Mechanism. _The Energy Journal_ , 32 no 4, 2011, 27-50.

Strand, J. and Rosendahl, K. E. (2011), Global Emissions Effects of CDM Projects with Relative Baselines. _Resource and Energy Economics_ , 34, 533-548, 2012.

Wickpedia (2011), _Boeing 747._ Wickpedia, the Free Library. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747-8 World Bank (2010), _Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Management Plan for Internal Business Operations 2009_ . Washington DC: The World Bank.

World Bank (2012), _Measuring by Example. The Bank leads the Way in Measuring and Managing its Corporate Greenhouse Gas Footprint_ . Unpublished, September 5, 2012.

WRI (2002), _Working 9 to 5 on Climate Change: An Office Guide_ . Washington DC: World Resources Institute.

24
# **From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia**

Mikhail Matytsin, Lalita Moorty and Kaspar Richter<sup>**1**</sup>

**Key words:** Demographic Dividend, Population Aging, Regional Convergence, Russian Regions

## **JEL Classification Numbers: J11, O47, O15, O52,**

> 1 This paper was written by Mikhail Matytsin (World Bank), Lalita Moorty (World Bank) and Kaspar Richter (European Commission) as a background paper for the 2015 World Bank report "Russia: Economic Impact of Aging", launched while Kaspar Richter was working at the World Bank.  The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank or the European Commission.