rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
# **I. Introduction**

Since Vietnam adopted its _doi moi_ (“renovation”) policy in 1986, Vietnam has gradually <mark>enacted a series of reforms to transform a centrally planned economy into a market-oriented one.</mark> Vietnam also made considerable progress in liberalizing its trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)<sup>2</sup> policies. These reforms were accompanied by high economic growth<sup>3</sup> and substantial reductions in poverty: the poverty rate dropped from 58.1 percent in 1993 to 37.4 percent in 1998 and 19.5 percent in 2004 (ADB, 2006). On the other hand, several studies indicate that the economic reforms have widened economic disparities across Vietnam’s regions (e.g., ADB, 2006; Glewwe, Gragnolati, and Zaman, 2002). New economic opportunities under _doi moi_ , together with increasing regional differences in these opportunities, led to a considerable increase in rural-urban migration.<sup>4</sup> According to the 2009 _Population and Housing Census_ , about 6.7 million individuals or 8.6 percent of the population aged five and older in Vietnam changed their places of residence during the period 2004-2009 (General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam, p.21, 2011). This was a substantial increase relative to the previous decade, since only about 6.5 percent of people at or above five years old migrated during the census period 1994-1999 (GSO/UNDP, 2001). In particular, the number of migrants who moved _inter_ -provincially rose much faster than those who moved within provinces and this trend is particularly pronounced among female migrants (GSO, 2011). During the early stage of _doi moi_ reform, more males migrated inter-provincially, but the gender-based trend reversed in recent years as more females moved across provinces

> 2 Since the first Law on Foreign Direct Investment took effect in 1987 and was subsequently amended in 1990, 1992, 1997 and 2000 (Van Arkadie and Mallon, 2003), FDI has played an important role in Vietnam’s economy. For the year 2009, foreign-owned firms accounted for 18.7 percent of Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 43.2 percent of industrial output (GSO, 2010).

> 3 During the period 1986-2011, Vietnam experienced an average annual growth rate of 6.9 percent (the World Development Indicator, the World Bank).

> 4 The urban share of the population increased from 23.7 percent in 1999 to 29.6 percent in 2009 (GSO, 2011).

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# **1.  Introduction**

Around 43.2 million people or 30 percent of the population of Bangladesh live in poverty. This figure includes 24.4 million extremely poor people who are not even able to afford their basic needs of food expenditure. In densely populated and land scarce Bangladesh, poor households are disadvantaged with regard to land access, and many end up settling in low-lying regions close to the coast. The poverty map developed by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, World Food Program and World Bank identifies a high incidence of poverty near the coast, where 11.8 million poor people are located in 19 districts (World Bank, 2014).

The incidence of poverty is particularly severe in the southwest coastal region, where the area is prone to tidal surges and cyclones, soil and water are saline at certain times of the year, and living conditions are harsh. The vulnerability of coastal regions to flooding, storm surges and salinity will further increase in this century, according to the climate projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the World Meteorological Organization. Climate change thus poses a serious threat to the livelihoods of the poor in the southwest coastal region, especially because they are burdened by limited mobility due to their economic circumstances, disadvantages with land access, and near-total dependence on local ecosystems for their livelihood.

Fisheries make an important contribution to the regional economy, especially in areas close to the Sundarbans mangrove forest (Shah et al. 2010). Marine fisheries, inland open water or capture fisheries and closed water fisheries provide an important source of livelihood for tens of thousands of poor people and supply a significant portion of their protein intake (World Bank 2000; Alam and Thomson 2001; Thilsted 2010; Thisted 2012; Fernandes et al., 2015).

Over the years, southwest coastal region inland open water fisheries have faced increasing threats from over-exploitation of resources; indiscriminate fishing with inappropriate fishing gear; 2
||||||||||17.8|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Observations|42|51|57|29|23|23|27|57|18|
|R-squared|0.166|0.008|0.319|0.022|0.002|0.083|0.059|0.019|0.17|

The coefficients show no significant negative relationship between the real credit growth peaks and the drop in the GDP growth, except for Kuwait. These results indicate that unlike non-MENA economies, the credit-intensive booms in MENA countries are not followed by recessions. In Table III-4 we report the results of the same regression for Western countries and Japan. The outcomes show the significantly negative coefficients of the credit cycle peaks on the growth of GDP.

# **Table III-4: Non-MENA Countries**

This table show the result for the regression where the main dependent variable is overall GDP growth for the non-MENA countries and the main explanatory variable is the local peak of medium-term credit cycle growth. The definition of the local peak of credit cycle growth is when the credit cycle growth is in its maximum volume compared to past and next five years. All regressions are estimated using OLS. Standard errors are clustered on the firm level. Standard errors appear in parentheses, and ***, **, * correspond to one, five, and ten percent levels of significance, respectively.

||1|2|3|4|5|6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**VARIABLES**|||**GDP**|**Growth**|||
|USA|-1.05**<br>0.55||||||
|Norway||-0.89**<br>0.47|||||
|Netherlands|||-1.3**<br>0.59||||
|Japan||||-3.7***<br>0.93|||
|Uk|||||-1.04**<br>0.53||
|Spain||||||-1.88**<br>0.77|
|Observations|57|57|57|57|57|57|
|R-squared|0.109|0.07|0.17|0.429|0.353|0.114|

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<u>Table A.2: Determinants of the Reported Earnings Ratio</u>

||<br>(1)|(2)|
|---|---|---|
|Log earnings residual|-0.351***<br>(0.06)|-0.354***<br>(0.06)|
|Ratio of wife to husband's account of annual remittance||-0.002<br>(0.04)|
|Median monthly income of Gulf migrants (log)||0.144<br>(0.09)|
|Wife's years of education||0.0149*<br>(0.01)|
|Wife is employed (Indicator)||0.134*<br>(0.07)|
|Wife is unaware of husband's overseas expenses (indicator)||-0.085<br>(0.06)|
|Disagreement over remittance use (Indicator)||-0.116***<br>(0.04)|
|Migrant spends on temptation goods (indicator)||-0.133***<br>(0.04)|
|Constant|0.788***<br>(0.02)|-0.632<br>(0.91)|
|R-squared|0.18|0.37|
|Observations|108|108|

*** denotes statistical significance at the 1% level, ** at the 5% level and * at the 10% level.

Notes: The dependent variable is the ratio of the wife’s report of the migrant’s monthly earnings to to that of the migrant. Bootstrapped standard errors (with 500 replications) are displayed in parenthesis, clustered at the district level.

_Source:_ Authors’ analysis based on data from QSKF.

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Policy Research Working Paper 10055

# **Abstract**

What are the preferred policy responses of host country residents to large migration inflows, and to what extent are these preferences driven by contact with migrants as well as values such as humanitarianism? This paper addresses these questions using new data on preferences of Colombians for responding to the large inflow of Venezuelans into their country. In a conjoint survey experiment, respondents selected and rated different policy packages comprising variations in six policy dimensions: (1) labour market access, (2) location restrictions, (3) public service access, (4) family reunification, (5) numerical limits, and (6) length of residency. The results suggest support for the options of conditional access to the labour market (i.e., only in certain occupations) or full free access to the alternative of no access. There is support for unrestricted location choices and access to public services, as well as conditional rights to family reunification (i.e., only if able to support dependants). Respondents also support the use of numerical limits and limiting the length of the residency permit. The results show that those who have less contact with Venezuelans, those who put more weight on economic priorities, and those who see the situation in Venezuela as mainly an economic problem, tend to support policies that are more restrictive..

This paper is a product of the Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at isabel.ruiz@bsg.ox.ac.uk .

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
Table 8 summarizes these calculations. For the marginal worker in a developing country, the wage gain to a one-off period of working in the US for several weeks overwhelms the present-value lifetime wage gain to the marginal worker from some of the most effective antipoverty policy interventions rigorously documented in the development economics literature.

# **Table 8: A comparison of annual wage gains from international movement of the marginal worker, to present-value lifetime wage gains to the marginal worker from different** **_in situ_ antipoverty interventions**

|Intervention|Country|Present-value<br>lifetime wage<br>increment due to<br>intervention (US$ at PPP)|Annual wage<br>increment due to<br>working in US<br>(US$ at PPP)|Weeks of US work<br>equivalent to<br>_lifetime_NPV of<br>intervention|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Microcredit|Bangladesh|700|~10,000|4|
|Anti-sweatshop<br>activism|Indonesia|2,700|~12,000|30|
|Additional year of<br>schooling (at<br>zero cost)|Bolivia|2,250|~11,000|11|
|Deworming|Kenya|71|~11,500|0.3|

The figures for annual wage increments to US work are from the rightmost column of Table 2 divided by 1.5 to adjust for selection bias. The figures for present-value lifetime wage gain from development interventions are calculated based on Pitt and Khandker (1998) for microcredit, Harrison and Scorse (2004) for anti-sweatshop activism, a standard Mincer regression for the additional year of schooling, and Kremer and Miguel (2004) for deworming; see text.

This of course does not suggest _in situ_ interventions are not worth carrying out. Any intervention with a positive net present value is worth carrying out, and there is no reason not to do several in parallel. Furthermore, the general equilibrium effects of very large movements of people could differ from the marginal effects we measure, just as the general equilibrium effects of _in situ_ antipoverty programs can differ enormously from the marginal effects measured by a field trial. That said, the marginal wage effects of movement can greatly exceed the marginal wage effects of _in situ_ policies and almost certainly deserve a larger role in the discussion of development and antipoverty initiatives.

# **5 Conclusion**

The combination of wage surveys around the world with the US Census allows us to estimate the wage differences across observably equivalent workers for 42 countries. The median wage gap for a male, unskilled (9 years of schooling), 35 year old, urban formal

> 1.5 to adjust for selection bias, yields a wage gain for equal productivity workers willing to move of about US$11,500 at purchasing power parity.

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Policy Research Working Paper 4965

# **Abstract**

A unique survey which tracks worldwide the best and brightest academic performers from three Pacific countries is used to assess the extent of emigration and return migration among the very highly skilled, and to analyze, at the microeconomic level, the determinants of these migration choices. Although the estimates indicate that the income gains from migration are very large, not everyone migrates and many return. Within this group of highly skilled individuals, the emigration decision is found to be most strongly associated with preference variables such as risk aversion, patience, and choice of subjects in secondary school, and not strongly linked to either liquidity constraints or the gain in income to be had from migrating. Likewise, the decision to return is strongly linked to family and lifestyle reasons, rather than to the income opportunities in different countries. Overall the data show a relatively limited role for income maximization in distinguishing migration propensities among the very highly skilled, and point to the need to pay more attention to other components of the utility maximization decision.

This paper—a product of the Finance and Private Sector Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the department to study the impacts of migration and remittances. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at dmckenzie@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
- the aid of each receiving country is instrumented by four variables (one per group of donors): its proximity index with each group of donors is multiplied by the relative increase in the amount of aid granted by this group of donors during the last four years.

The choice of these instruments relies on two main assumptions:

- the total level of aid granted by the donors is not influenced by the needs of only one receiver, but rather depends on the choices and constraints of the donors;

- when a donor increases its aid, it will tend to give more to those to which it gave during the preceding years.

One thus expects that, ceteris paribus, the aid received by a country increases when the aid given by its main donors increases. This increase can be considered as exogenous. These four instruments (one per group of donors), calculated for each receiver, are used to instrument ODA.

Using these instruments, we carry out the test of Nakamura and Nakamura. In order to avoid a repetition of identical observations when several projects were implemented in the same country during the same period, we use macro economic panel data, pooled by periods of four years from 1980 to 1999. Our tests confirm the validity of our instruments and the hypothesis of aid exogeneity cannot be rejected<sup>6</sup> .

# _Main results: the success of aid projects in vulnerable countries_

Regression 1.1 shows the results of the model presented in section 3. This regression will always be referred to as the main regression. Before commenting on our variables of interest, we see that trade and the logarithm of GDP have no significant effect. We also notice that surprisingly the quality of the institutions as measured by the ICRG index has no significant effect on the success of the projects whereas education has a significant positive effect. These results are in contradiction with the findings of Isham and Kaufmann (1999) and Dollar and Levin (2005).

> 6 In the instrumental equation, the Wald test confirms the joint significance of the instruments at 1%. The residue, introduced in the structural equation, is not significant (t statistic = 0.79). Finally the Sargan test did not reject the validity of our instruments (p-value = 0.73).

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<!-- Start of picture text --> Manufacturing employment in India<br>Ge)<br>a<br>c<br>=i)<br>=<br>=<br>=o<br>57<br>2<br>°o<br>1990 1995 ee 2005 2010<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Manufacturing employment in India<br>A ~<br>2 ae mr<br>o ~sN ~<br>n= “<br>2 oe<br>= 2 a<br>& ee oe<br>S<br>Bw<br>&<br>°<br>1990 1995 2000 2005 2010<br>Wel<br>—+*— Formalsector ——#-—- Informal sector<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Manufacturing employment in India<br>oO<br>Ss<br>—<br>LaoON<br>=© ae<br>< ot<br>2 - Ls<br>3~ _---*"<br>meen<br>oO<br>1990 1995 2000 2005 2010<br>Year<br>“-@--- Formal tradables — ®— - Formal non-tradables<br>——@# —- Informal tradables ——*— Informal non-tradables<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Manufacturing firms in India<br>ie)<br>+<br>re an<br>Ss cer<br>=a) ae<br>= 7<br>S ee<br>2 leant<br>SQ<br>1990 1995 2000 2005 2010<br>oat<br>-@--- Formal tradables — ®— - Formal non-tradables<br>—-—# —- Informal tradables ——*— Informal non-tradables<br><!-- End of picture text -->
**Beyond Political Connections: A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-level Political Influence in 41 Economies**

David C. Francis<sup>∗</sup> Robert Kubinec<sup>†</sup> World Bank New York University Abu Dhabi

**Keywords:** Political influence, political connections, latent variables **JEL Codes:** C11, D16, D22, D71, D72, D73

> ∗Senior Economist, World Bank, dfrancis@worldbank.org

> †Assistant Professor of Political Science, Division of Social Sciences, New York University Abu Dhabi, rmk7@nyu.edu We are grateful to Ana Paula Cusolito, Asif Islam, Nona Karalashvili, Aart Kraay, Roberta Gatti, Norman Loayza, Jorge Rodriguez Meza, as well as participants in the World Bank DECIG Half-baked Seminar series, two joint World Bank/EBRD/EIB workshops, the 26th annual SIOE conference, and PolMeth Europe 2022 for helpful and insightful comments.
$8. As noted in the previous paragraph, even with a carbon price of $5 per ton of CO2, households can gain $4.70 per year over the life of the stove. A household thus could totally recoup the cost of the Mirt stove in three years.<sup>7</sup> Note also that our calculation is fairly conservative in not including payments for reducing black carbon emissions. Nor does it incorporate households’ willingness to pay to have a stove with reduced smoke emissions.

However, the carbon savings and reduced deforestation will only be realized if the stoves continue to be consistently used (Simon et al. 2012). The results from the choice experiment survey indicate that rural Ethiopian households value the attributes of the stove and therefore are likely to use the stoves. This result is reinforced in findings from Gebreegziabher et al. 2015 that used a stove satisfaction survey and controlled cooking tests to evaluate actual Mirt Stoves. A natural question then is why households are not more widely adopting the improved stoves on their own. When this question was posed to the respondents in the choice experiment, the most commonly cited reason for not having a stove was the lack of availability of stoves, not their cost.<sup>8</sup> If, as our results suggest, the demand exists, there would seem to be an opportunity for businesses or other organizations to enter the market to provide the stoves.

# **6. Conclusions and Policy Implications**

Nearly half the world’s population relies on solid fuels, such as biomass, for cooking, and in Sub‐Saharan Africa there is a much higher reliance, with 68% to 90% of the population using biomass fuels (IEA 2014, Rehfuess 2006, Smith et al. 2004). Improved (fuel‐efficient and lower‐ emitting) stoves have long been viewed as a solution to reduce both environmental and health impacts from the use of traditional biomass stoves. In order promote improved stoves and increase the uptake of improved stoves it is important to understand which aspects of stoves are important to households. Though there are a large number of studies on the adoption of

> 7 The additional carbon payments would be available to help finance the cost of replacing the cooking surface, should it crack or break. A portion of the total carbon revenues also could be retained to help finance the cost of implementing the stove distribution program, and educating households regarding how to use the improved stove. 8 In a stove satisfaction survey 100% of the users rated the MIRT stoves as good or very good, 90% said that they would buy the stove at full market price. For more details of the satisfaction survey refer to Gebreegziabher et. al. 2015.

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**Figure 5: Tiers of Cumulative Classes Completed: Transitions Throughout College.**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 100 100 Tier 1 100 Tier 2 to tier 1 100 Tier 1 to tier 2,3&4<br>Tier 2 Tier 3 to tier 1&2 Tier 2 to tier 3&4<br>90 90 Tier 3 90 Tier 4 to tier 1,2&3 90 Tier 3 to tier 4<br>Tier 4<br>80 80 80 80<br>70 70 70 70<br>60 60 60 60<br>50 50 50 50<br>40 40 40 40<br>30 30 30 30<br>20 20 20 20<br>Tier 1<br>10 Tier 2 10 10 10<br>Tier 3<br>0 Tier 4 0 0 0<br>2 3 4 5 2 3 4 5 2 3 4 5 2 3 4 5<br>Year Year Year Year<br>a. Persistence b. Dropout c. Catch−up d. Fall behind<br>Percent Percent Percent Percent<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source_ : Calculations based on SPADIES for the 2006 entry cohort (first semester). _Notes_ : Each panel shows the probability that a student who ended the previous year in a given tier experiences the following outcomes in the current year: persist in the tier (panel a), drop out (panel b), catch up (rise) to a higher tier (panel c), or fall behind to a lower tier (panel d). For a given year and tier, probabilities add up to 100 across panels. For example, a student who finished year 1 in tier 3 is depicted in green. In year 2, she is 35, 23, 18, and 24 percent likely to persist in tier 3, drop out, catch up to tiers 1 or 2, and fall behind to tier 4 respectively.

Same-tier persistence rises over time (panel a), in part because dropout rates fall over time (panel b). Although low-performing students are more likely than others to drop out, students from all tiers face a non-zero dropout probability. Some students move across tiers by catching up or falling behind (panels c and d). Higher-performing students are more likely to catch up and less likely to fall behind than others, yet all students face a non-zero probability of falling behind. Despite transitions among tiers, the most likely outcome for a student in tier 1, 2, or 3 is to remain in it the following year.

Reaching year 5 does not guarantee graduation, but cumulative performance up to that point is strongly related to final outcomes. As Figure 7 shows, most students in the top three tiers graduate but most bottom-tier students do not. Further, most top-tier students graduate on time.

# _Fact 5: Within abilities, cumulative performance becomes more concentrated over time._

As low-performing students drop out over time, the distribution of cumulative performance becomes more concentrated at the top tiers. Panel a of Figure 6 shows the distribution across performance tiers at the end of year 1 by ability quintile. High-ability students are the most likely to belong to the top tier while low-ability students are the most likely to belong to the bottom tier. Nonetheless, performance varies greatly within ability quintiles, and a sizable catch up, and fall behind equal to 29, 14, 20, and 39 respectively. Beginning in year 5, students can ”transition” into graduation as well.

11