22 distinct sub-periods exist: rapid growth (about 10 percent annually) between 1990 and 1997 and slower growth (about 4 percent per year annually) from 1997-2000. Private external debt (in dollar terms) actually declined in 2000 to the sample countries and has remained at roughly that level since then. In East Asia (outside China), the absolute decline began in 1998. In China and in Latin America, growth slowed after 1997 or 1998, respectively. However, growth of external debt rose in the Transition group and in Turkey after 1997.

# Table 4

Debt from Private External Sources in 22 Major Developing Countries, 1990-2000

||1990|1991|1992|1993|1994|1995|1996|1997|1998|1999|2000|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||||T|otal Debt||||||||
|Billion US$|570|595|634|701|798|926|1044|1139|1224|1223|1207|
|% of total GDP|25.1|24.6|23.5|23.5|23.8|23.2|23.3|26.6|27.0|27.2|25.5|
|||U|nweighte|d Averag|e of the 2|2 countrie|s|||||
|% of GDP|33.9|28.9|27.6|29.1|27.1|27.9|26.3|31.8|31.5|31.6|30.1|

Source: World Bank, _Global Development Finance_ data base.

Despite the growth in debt in dollar terms, the ratio of private external debt to GDP changed relatively little over the 1990s in the sample countries. Indeed, the ratio fell somewhat in the first part of the decade, then rose to roughly the same ratio as in 1990 between 1996 and 2000. The main explanation for these developments is that in dollar terms the GDP of the sample countries grew relatively rapidly in the first part of the decade, owing to appreciations of the real exchange rate. However, after 1994, large real devaluations raised the ratio of external debt to GDP, even as the growth of external debt in dollars slowed and then turned negative.<sup>52</sup> In terms of countries, private external debt is highly concentrated. The five countries with the largest private external debt in 2000 — Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Korea, and Turkey — accounted for 50 percent of private external debt. All five were among the ten countries with the largest private external debt in 1990. Four of the five largest borrowers in 2000 had growth rates of private external debt among the ten fastest rates in the 1990s. Korea’s debt more than tripled over the decade, the highest rate of all large countries. Concentration of private debt in the top five borrowers grew over the 1990s, with only Mexico’s external borrowing growing more slowly than the total borrowings of the 25 countries. Finally, four of the five countries with the largest private external debt in 1990 suffered external debt crises between 1994 and 2001; only China escaped.

The (unweighted) average ratio of countries’ private external debt to GDP is higher than, and falls over the decade somewhat faster than, the ratio of total external debt to total GDP (Table 4, lines 3 and 2). The differences between the two figures

> 52 Broadly speaking, the World Bank estimates of the ratio of external debt to GNI show a similar time pattern, roughly constant, rather than falling in the first part of the decade, then rising gradually beginning in 1997.  These differences reflect the slower depreciations of the World Bank’s calculated exchange rates compared to the year-end exchange rates used here.