# **Introduction**

Approximately 20 million school-aged children in Pakistan did not attend school in 2021 (Pak Alliance for Maths and Science, 2021). Learning poverty in Pakistan is also extremely high, estimated to be 78 percent for 10-year-old children (World Bank, processed). Low participation in pre-primary education has major implications for human capital development, productivity, and skill acquisition (Holla et al., 2021). Research suggests that the availability of quality education in the early years could be one pathway for countries to achieve SDG-4 targets and tackle challenges such as poor access to education, retention in school, and marginalization (Rad et al., 2022). However, the net enrollment rate of children aged 3-5 in early childhood education (ECE) was only 31 percent in 2022 in Pakistan (Tomlinson et al., 2023) – far short of the SDG 4.2 target of universal access to quality pre-primary education. If Pakistan fails to close the universal ECE coverage gap, each consecutive cohort remaining at the present enrollment rate will cost Pakistan 3.4 percent of its GDP (Tomlinson et al., 2023).

Data limitations do not allow realistic planning and decision-making for the ECE sub-sector in Pakistan’s education system. There are currently no mechanisms in place to record the budgetary allocations and spending on ECE in federal or provincial budgets. Pre-primary and primary education budgets are combined into one budget and cannot be disaggregated.

Cognizant of the cost of inaction, Pakistan is committed to expanding ECE services for all children. To do so, it is imperative to have a robust strategic plan in place that relies on a realistic understanding of the existing investments in pre-primary education and scenarios for additional investments in the upcoming years.

Despite the gaps in existing data, there are mechanisms through which this information gap can be filled in the short to medium term until such systems are developed and implemented. This paper is one attempt to fill this information gap. It presents a simulation exercise using an adapted version of the ECE Accelerator Costing and Simulation Model<sup>1</sup> to outline the ECE costs, financing gap, and human resources and infrastructure needed to achieve government goals and SDG 4.2 targets. The aim is to facilitate evidence-based planning and decision-making for the ECE subsector in the upcoming years. The model also considers alternative scenarios for meeting targets by 2035. The discussion section considers system capacities and additional support mechanisms required for these endeavors.

This paper draws on administrative data sources, the population census, and publicly available data on government spending to consider what a core package of ECE services might cost in Pakistan. It considers goals such as those articulated in SDG 4.2 as well as prospective goals being considered by the government.<sup>2</sup> This paper presents cost estimates for three packages: (i) a business-as-usual package, (ii) a core service delivery package, and (iii) an augmented service delivery package. Various approaches to service delivery are costed including community construction and vouchers.

> 1 The development of this tool was supported by UNICEF in collaboration with others. The original tool is available at https://www.ece-accelerator.org/resources/early-childhood-accelerator-simulation-model.

> 2 The analyses presented in this paper were motivated by a government request to understand the costs of expanding ECE provision across Pakistan.

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