results is that agricultural production in Zimbabwe’s smallholder farming system is constrained by climatic factors (high temperature and low rainfall).

# _6.5.2 SRES climate scenarios_

<mark>The study also examined the effects of a set of climate change scenarios predicted by SRES. Specifically, we used A2 scenarios from the Third Assessment Report (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios – SRES). The SRES scenarios were constructed to explore future developments in the global environment with special reference to the production of greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). After trying a number of scenarios, the study used the models CGM2, HadCM3 and PCM. The predicted climate data for the scenario analysis were provided from the hydrological component of the project from Colorado University.</mark> The predicted climate variables (temperature and precipitation) were used to estimate the <mark>expected marginal effects of changes in climate on net farm revenues, based on the estimates from the Ricardian model. Table 11 presents the mean temperature and rainfall predicted by the three models for the years 2050 and 2100. In 2100 CGM2 and HadCM3 predict a 4 ° C and PCM a 2 ° C increase in temperature in Zimbabwe. Rainfall predictions show that the CGM2 model predicts an average decrease of 10%, the HadCM3 model an average decrease of 17% and the PCM model an average decrease of 21% for the year 2100. However, despite mean rainfall in the country being predicted to increase or decrease depending on the scenario, it in fact varies substantially.</mark> The results for the predicted impacts from the SRES scenarios are presented in Table 12. The scenarios show negative effects on farm net revenues for further increases in temperature, particularly for all farms and rainfed farms. Further increases in temperature would be detrimental to agricultural production in the country for the years 2050 and 2100. The CGM2, HadCM3 and PCM scenarios predict that by 2100 net farm revenues will decrease by US$0.8, US$ 1.3 billion and US$ 1.4 billion across all farms, rainfed farms and farms with irrigation respectively.

Further reductions in precipitation and increases in temperature in the country predict that farming would not be viable and if farmers are continue to farm there is an urgent need for the government and private institutions to develop ways of helping farmers adapt to these future negative climatic conditions.

These findings show there is a great need for technological development of adaptation packages that are not needed in the present farming conditions but which will be useful for agricultural production by those years. There is therefore a need for investment in research and development so researchers can develop a farming package for smallholder farmers that will enable them to remain in business by the years 2050 and 2100; for instance, one that would include input, irrigation technologies and extension.

# **_6.6 Farmer strategies to adapt to climate change_**

This section briefly reviews adaptation strategies farmers are using to cushion themselves against adverse climatic conditions being experienced in the country. As shown in Figure 4, about 68% of the farmers in the study indicated that they do at least something in response to 21