households that we observe seems to be brought on by necessity: vulnerable refugee households in a new country responding to their difficult circumstances and the revelation of their initial beneficiary status.

**Table 4: Estimation results on household size and its components.**

||**Control mean**||**Lower bound**|**s**|**Unadjusted**|**U**|**pper bounds**||**IV**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**(and standard**<br>**deviation)**|(1)<br>Lee(-)|(2)<br>(+/-).25 SD|(3)<br>(+/-).1 SD|(4)|(5)<br>(-/+).1 SD|(6)<br>(-/+).25 SD|(7)<br>Lee(+)|(8)|
|Household si|ze**–**Control mean(|SD)at baselin|e: 5.95(2.60)|||||||
|6 months|5.54|0.42***|0.38***|0.56***|0.66***|0.80***|0.97***|0.93***|0.92***|
||(2.29)|(0.09)|(0.07)|(0.07)|(0.09)|(0.07)|(0.07)|(0.10)|(0.13)|
|12 months|5.60|0.31***|0.29***|0.51***|0.64***|0.80***|1.02***|1.03***|1.54***|
||(2.37)|(0.09)|(0.07)|(0.07)|(0.10)|(0.07)|(0.08)|(0.11)|(0.25)|
|18 months|5.43|0.46***|0.36***|0.67***|0.80***|1.10***|1.41***|1.16***|2.20***|
||(223)|(010)|(006)|(006)|(011)|(007)|(007)|(012)|(035)|
|Number of ch|.<br>ildren 0-5years ol|.<br>d**–**Control m|.<br>ean(SD)at bas|.<br>eline/SD: 1.11(|.<br>1.12)|.|.|.|.|
|6 months|1.08|-0.01|-0.01|0.07*|0.13***|0.18***|0.27***|0.18***|0.18***|
||(1.07)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.06)|
|12 months|1.08|-0.05|-0.03|0.07**|0.12**|0.21***|0.31***|0.19***|0.29**|
||(1.11)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.11)|
|18 months|1.08|-0.07|-0.08***|0.07**|0.14***|0.28***|0.44***|0.18***|0.36**|
||(1.11)|(0.05)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.05)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.05)|(0.14)|
|Number of ch<br>|ildren 6-17years o<br>|ld**–**Control<br>|mean/SD at bas<br>|eline: 1.76(1.60)<br>||||||
|6 months|1.46|0.42***|0.32***|0.43***|0.47***|0.57***|0.68***|0.56***|0.71***|
||(1.39)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.07)|
|12 months|1.56|0.37***|0.25***|0.39***|0.45***|0.57***|0.70***|0.67***|1.22***|
||(1.47)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.16)|
|18 months|1.49|0.40***|0.24***|0.43***|0.46***|0.69***|0.88***|0.70***|1.46***|
||(1.35)|(0.05)|(0.03)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.06)|(0.19)|
|Number of ad<br>|ults 18-59years ol<br>|d**–**Control m<br>|ean/SD at base<br>|line: 2.83(1.41)<br>||||||
|6 months|2.76|-0.21***|-0.17***|-0.07|0.01|0.07*|0.18***|0.11**|-0.04|
||(1.29)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.07)|
|12 months|2.72|-0.29***|-0.21***|-0.09**|0.01|0.08*|0.20***|0.12**|-0.06|
||(1.35)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.05)|(0.12)|
|18 months|<br>2.64|<br>-0.16***|<br>-0.21***|<br>-0.03|<br>0.11*|<br>0.22***|<br>0.40***|<br>0.21***|<br>0.23|
||(1.31)|(0.05)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.06)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.06)|(0.17)|
|Number of ad|ults 60+years old|**–**Control me|an/SD at baseli|ne: 0.25(0.55)||||||
|6 months|0.22|-0.01|-0.02|0.02|0.05***|0.08***|0.12***|0.06***|0.07***|
||(0.51)|(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.01)|(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.01)|(0.02)|(0.02)|
|12 months|0.23|-0.03|-0.04**|0.01|0.06***|0.08***|0.13***|0.07***|0.12***|
||(0.53)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.04)|
|18 months|0.20|-0.03|-0.06***|0.01|0.08***|0.10***|0.17***|0.09***|0.18***|
||(0.48)|(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.01)|(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.01)|(0.02)|(0.05)|

Note: Significance level p< 0.01 - ***, 0.05 - **, 0.1 - *; Robust standard errors in parentheses; Each coefficient in this table comes from a different regression of the outcome on a fully-interacted model, i.e. including a dummy for treatment that is fully-interacted with baseline outcomes variables and the propensity score; strata fixed effects are also included (n=5); all regressions use IPW and sampling weights; column (4) presents the main results; columns (1) and (7) are estimated by trimming the top/bottom of the treatment group by the difference in attrition between the treatment and control, as in Lee (2009); columns (2) to (3) and (6) to (7) replace outcome values for the attritors with +/- 0.x standard deviations of their respective treatment group-wave means as in Kling and Liebman (2004), lower bounds subtract this value from the treatment group and add it to the control group and vice versa for the upper bounds.

The reader may also wonder whether the changes in household size are due to differential reporting between the treatment and control households. As the surveys were overseen by the TRC, it is possible that the households associated the program with the surveys. However, as explained in Section 2, program eligibility in Turkey is exclusively determined by refugee families’ formal registration status in the program databases. Taking in or reporting more children would not change a household’s eligibility status unless the new child(ren) were officially registered with the receiving family. Moreover, beneficiary households have no incentive to inflate the number of children reported at 6-month follow-up since they have already been declared eligible. Therefore, we deem it unlikely that the changes in household size that we observe are due to differential reporting bias.

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