rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
||(1)<br>Actual gr|(2)<br>Actual gr|(3)<br>Actual gr|(4)<br>Actual gr|(5)<br>Actual gr|(6)<br>Actual gr|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|lag<br>~~d~~isco|-0.095|-0.446|-0.480|-0.662|-0.831<sup>_∗_</sup>|-0.670|
||(0.325)|(0.678)|(0.380)|(0.502)|(0.427)|(0.423)|
|Fixed efects|Country Year|Country Year|Country Year|Country Year|Country Year|Country Year|
|Sample|Full sample|XConst 1|XConst 2|XConst 3|XConst 4|XConst 5|
|Obs|5413|313|1132|2063|2765|3112|
|R-sq|0.05|0.16|0.06|0.09|0.08|0.07|

Standard errors in parentheses _∗ ∗∗ ∗∗∗ p <_ 0 _._ 10, _p <_ 0 _._ 05, _p <_ 0 _._ 01 Table 14: Main results, actual growth, weak institutions

||(1)<br>Dif gr|(2)<br>Dif gr|(3)<br>Dif gr|(4)<br>Dif gr|(5)<br>Dif gr|(6)<br>Dif gr|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|lag<br>~~d~~isco|-0.833<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|1.142<sup>_∗_</sup>|-0.527|-1.157<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|-1.354<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|-1.337<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|
||(0.308)|(0.556)|(0.473)|(0.398)|(0.419)|(0.402)|
|Fixed efects|Country Year|Country Year|Country Year|Country Year|Country Year|Country Year|
|Sample|Full sample|XConst 1|XConst 2|XConst 3|XConst 4|XConst 5|
|Obs|3781|220|795|1438|1950|2206|
|R-sq|0.06|0.16|0.03|0.05|0.05|0.06|

Standard errors in parentheses _∗ ∗∗ ∗∗∗ p <_ 0 _._ 10, _p <_ 0 _._ 05, _p <_ 0 _._ 01 Table 15: Main results, forecast diff, weak institutions

# **5.5 Testing for a threshold in institutional quality**

Our main estimates show that when we control for, and interact our discovery variable with institutional quality, the magnitude and significance of our results increases. Indeed, we find that for countries with lower institutional quality, the growth disappointment effects appear stronger. In contrast, countries with strong institutions prior to discovery appear to suffer no growth disappointment effect following a resource discovery.

Below we test for whether our growth disappointment effect exhibits a threshold- whereby countries below the threshold show qualitatively different results compared to countries above the threshold. Table 14 and Table 15 provide estimates by actual growth and growth forecast error respectively. Each column gives a different cut-off of institutional quality, limiting the sample. In both cases the magnitude of our growth disappointment effect is maximized for countries below the threshold XConst=4. This is the threshold we use in our main split-sample estimates.

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In this study, we analyze the economic impact of removing direct subsidies to consumption of electricity and indirect subsidies to the consumption of natural gas using a CGE model of Bangladesh. In both cases, we consider four alternative schemes to reallocate the funds saved. Consistent with economic theory, our findings confirm that removal of subsidies for the use of electricity and natural gas would have positive economic impacts overall (i.e., increase GDP) in Bangladesh.

This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the literature analyzing the economic impacts of subsidy removal. This is followed in Section 3 by the analytical model (the CGE model) developed for the study and a description of how it incorporates the removal of direct and indirect subsidies in the energy sector. Section 4 lays out the results from model simulations. It is followed by a discussion of policy implications in Section 5. Finally, we draw key conclusions in Section 6.

# **2. Review of Literature**

A number of studies have been carried out to analyze the economic effects of energy subsidy removal in different countries over the last few years. These studies include Jiang et al. (2015), Hong et al. (2013) and Jiang and Tan (2013) for China; Glomm and Jung (2014) and Elshennawy (2014) for Egypt; Solaymani and Kari (2014) for Malaysia; Blazquez et al. (2018) for Saudi Arabia; Gelan (2018) for Kuwait; Breton and Mirzapour (2016) and Gharibnavaz and Waschik (2015) for the Islamic Republic of Iran. These studies differ significantly in the methodology used, types of fuels considered, and findings. Table 1 compares these studies.

A few studies, especially for China (e.g., Jiang et al. 2015, Hong et al. 2013, and Jiang and Tan, 2013) assess the impacts of energy subsidy removal using input-output models. Their findings are, therefore, limited to the impacts on energy prices due to subsidy removal. As expected, they find that removal of energy subsidies would result in an increase of energy prices. These results are not only intuitive but also do not provide any insights on the impact of energy subsidy removal or reforms on the economy. Al Iriani and Trabelsi (2015) examine the effects of energy subsidy removal on the economies of seven members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which have historically heavily subsidized energy, using an econometric cum algebraic approach. The study first establishes a causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth using data for 4
First, although ours is the first attempt to examine the differences between the Doing Business estimates of compliance times with the actual distribution of experienced times from firm surveys, our findings are building on earlier literatures about the heterogeneity of regulatory compliance in specific countries and sectors. A classic early contribution was Stone, Levy and Paredes (1996) which showed that a comparison of the formal regulations of registering a business in Chile versus Brazil would lead one to conclude that Chile as a much better place to do business as its formal regulations were stream-lined while the regulatory path to registering a firm in Brazil was ―tortuous.‖ But, when they examined actual practice they found that in response to this difficulty of the formal regulations an industry of negotiating this on behalf of firms had emerged that made business registration ―a fairly affordable one-stop process.‖ Pritchett and Sethi (1994) had many of the same findings for the collection of import tariffs. They showed that: (a) the collected _ad valorem_ tariff rates were much lower than the legal _ad valorem_ tariff; (b) that collected tariff rates increased much less than one for one with legal tariffs; and (c) huge heterogeneity in collected tariff rates across items with the exact same legal tariff. Similarly, Gauthier and Gersovitz (1997) use a survey of firms in Cameroon to show how tax exemptions and evasion at the firm specific level cause massive deviations between the hypothetical _de jure_ tax revenues if the tax code were applied and the actual revenues collected. A recent application of randomization investigated the granting of driver‘s licenses in Delhi India (Bertrand, Djankov, Hanna, Mullainathan 2007) and found that individuals who hired a tout were effectively exempted from one element of regulatory compliance (the driving exam) while those who did not hire a tout did have to take the exam (and often failed). Our findings confirm at a cross-national scale and for a number of indicators the commonly observed, but hard to document, fact that policy implementation often deviates from the stated policy, in firm (or individual) specific ways.

Second, our findings are also related to the large literature on corruption and its relationship to firm profitability, regulatory compliance, and regulations themselves and hence on economic performance (e.g. Shleifer and Vishny 1993). Fisman (2001) uses the connection between variations in the stock market value of firms in Indonesia, their connections to Suharto, and information about Suharto‘s health to show that often a significant value of the firm‘s value was due to their political connections, presumably because these connections allowed them greater profitability. Research on the transition in post-communist countries, in which 31
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changes in Colombia with more dramatic adjustments In Chile. The analysis is also complicated by the fact that the external world is continually changing. Since programs are designed ex-ante, the success of an approach has to be measured relative to other ex-ante design processes. The measure of success in terms of outcomes has to be measured relative to the outcomes which might have resulted if other posited approaches had been followed. The evaluation of the latter is not straight-forward.

The difflculty of this appraisal does not justify Ignoring the issue. The Bank has attempted to assess its experience with both structural adjustment and sector adjustment lending. World Bank (1986a) limited its analysis to fifteen loans in ten countries initiated during 1980-83 for which project performance audlts had been undertaken. A general conclusion reached was that these early programs did not fully meet the expectations of the Bank or the adjusting countries. The reasons for this are not completely understood but at least three factors stand out: not enough was known about the span of time required for policy changes to become effective at the ttme of program design; many policy changes were Incompletely or unevenly implemented; and the period of implementation (1980-83) was one in which the world economic environment faciag these countries deteriorated.

Reaction to those factors has already been incorporated in most of the programs which followed these early efforts. Although more effort is now taken in understanding the Impact of policy reforms, program conditions have included qualitative targets as well. The number of targets specified In a program ha also tended to decrease.
Many more applications are received than the quota allows, so a lottery is used by the New Zealand Department of Labour to randomly select from amongst the registrations. A survey administered by the authors was used to collect data on winners and losers in this lottery. Thus, we have a group of migrants and a comparison group who are similar to the migrants, but remain in Tonga only because they were not successful in the lottery.

By comparing the lottery winners and losers, we are able to obtain the only known experimental measure of the gain in income from migration. As not all individuals whose names were selected in the lottery had migrated by the time of our survey, this estimate accounts for non-compliance to the “treatment” of migration. We therefore consider both the intention-to-treat effect, which is the impact on expected income of having a winning ballot in the PAC lottery, and the average treatment effect on the treated, which is the average impact of migrating for individuals who migrate after winning the lottery. We estimate that there is an 88% increase in expected income from winning the lottery, and a 263% increase in income from migrating.

In addition to winners and losers in the PAC lottery, we also surveyed individuals who did not apply for the lottery. We use this sample of non-applicants along with the migrant sample to obtain non-experimental estimates of the income gains from migration. Five popular non-experimental methods for dealing with selectivity are considered: a single difference estimator which compares post-migration income to pre-migration income; OLS regression estimates which assume selection on observables; difference-indifferences regression estimation; propensity-score matching; and instrumental variables

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Policy Research Working Paper 6420

# **Abstract**

This paper investigates the role of employment opportunities created by foreign-owned firms as a determinant of internal migration and destination choice using the _Vietnam Migration Survey_ 2004 and the _Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey_ 2004. Multinomial logit and conditional logit models are estimated to study both origin and destination-specific characteristics of migrants. The paper finds that the migration response to foreign job opportunities is larger for female workers than male workers; there appears to be intermediate selection in terms of educational attainment; and migrating individuals on average tend to go to destinations with higher foreign employment opportunities, even controlling for income differentials, land differentials, and distances between sending and receiving areas.

This paper is a product of the Agriculture and Rural Development Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at efukase@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
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Figs 20 - 21 <!-- Start of picture text --> WAGES + BENEFITS shares from cost side<br>asses ize fimi I<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> O's<br>0.5<br>0.4-<br>0.3<br>0.2-<br>0.1*<br>1Q91 2Q91 3Q91 4Q91 1Q92 2Q92 3Q92<br><!-- End of picture text --> wae bill bonus fund soelal _hi._ tax **e** mployment fund5 iMl penason fund = social fund WAGES + BENEFTS shares from cost side asets aim frrm n1 <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.6<br>0.5<br>0.4<br>0.3<br>0.2 0<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> pension fund 2 seciel fund<br><!-- End of picture text -->
a proscribed counter-stereotypical behavior, such as women’s work outside the home, may eventually reduce norm costs associated with the behavior and help erode the restrictive norm. In this way, we consider individual non-conformist behavior as a first-order condition to allow for norms change at the societal level. The _Choices_ program aimed to shift personal gender attitudes and make the returns to gender equality more salient.<sup>21</sup> We measure personal gender attitudes, perceived community norms and conformity through self-reported survey questions and complement these constructs with behavioral measures of perceived norms and social conformity from a lab-in-the-field experiment. Conformity is considered a behavior that is situationally determined rather than an individual trait or characteristic. In our experiment we define conformity as adolescents taking actions or stating beliefs in a public group setting that deviate from what they privately considered to be the optimal action or belief; what they would say or do if peers would not observe them. Specifically, we first measure conformity with respect to gender beliefs (the focus of the _Choices_ training content), whereby we assess whether adolescents switch their private response when in public in front of a randomly selected group of peers. That is, we explore individuals’ likelihood of conforming in public where they may be confronted with an opposing view to their own. Next, we measure conformity in an abstract setting where respondents are asked to match the length of lines as in the Asch conformity experiments. The line match games are used to bolster the argument that what we observe are social dynamics specific to gender norms that were thematized by the program, not a broader influence on conformity. Finally, we examine self-reports of conformist behavior from the surveys.

Societal norms often establish gender differences and there is literature showing differences in the way men and women conform to social influence. See for example, Eagly and Carli (2007) who conduct a meta-analysis and find that women are more persuadable and conforming than men in group pressure situations that involve surveillance. This implies that the gender composition of the group may play a role in conformity. Indeed, Reitan and Shaw (1964) show that men and women conformed more when there were participants of both sexes involved versus participants of the same sex. In our conformity experiments we examine different types of social influence for both boys and girls and explore the influence of: (1) the effect of _Choices_ peers in an individual’s team, (2) mixed-gender vs. single-gender teams, and (3) what responses were given by other peers directly before an individual responds in public.

> 21Studies in low- and middle-income countries have typically focused on programs that try to change social norms that are restrictive or sustain harmful or discriminatory practices.

7
ages, the relationship between participation in wage work and enrollment is negative. At age 6 almost all children are enrolled in school and the share remains virtually unchanged until age 11. Starting from age 11 there is an inverse relationship between participation in wage work and schooling, with an increase in labor market participation being accompanied by a simultaneous decrease in school enrollment (Figure 2). At the same time, working does not affect whether younger children, especially those in elementary school, are in the correct grade. Younger children who participate in household chores are able to keep up with school and be enrolled in the correct grade.

**Figure 1 Share of children working in domestic and wage work Figure 2 Probability of schooling and wage work by age, 2015**

<!-- Start of picture text --> by age, 2015<br>100<br>90 90<br>80 80<br>70 70<br>60 60<br>50 50<br>40 40<br>30 30<br>20 20<br>10<br>10<br>0<br>0<br>5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17<br>5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17<br>Age<br>Age<br>Wage work Household chores<br>Schooling Wage work<br>All type of work<br>Percent of children<br>Percent of children<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source: authors’ estimates using LFS 2015_ _Source: authors’ estimates using LFS 2015_ Participation in any type of work decreases with wealth, from 38.3 percent for children in the lowest decile to 31.2 percent for children in highest decile (Figure 3). There is no clear trend in labor market and household chores participation across wealth deciles and no gender differences. Using imputed consumption, the probability of being engaged in domestic or wage work remains quite constant across consumption deciles. Children in richer households are almost as likely to be engaged in any type of work as children from poorer households. Although the probability declines in the top deciles, especially when looking at wage work, the difference is not significant. Overall, it seems that participation in any type of work is not affected by household wealth, whereas participation in paid labor market activities is significantly influenced by the age of the child. To recap, engagement in household chores starts as early 12
1971 their share of rural credit appears to have<sup>dropped from over 80 percent to 36 percent.</sup> According to NSS data it may have dropped<sup>to as low as 16 percent by 1981, but that</sup> estimate is in dispute (Bell, 1990).

However, institutional credit is far from reaching<sup>all farmers. Only about a</sup> quarter of cultivators borrow and long-term<sup>loans are received by no more than two percent</sup> (Rath, 1987). The majority of small farmers<sup>have little access to credit and long-term credit</sup> is highly concentrated among large farmers.

Overall farm debt has probably not increased<sup>sharply in real terms as formal</sup> credit has primarily substituted for credit<sup>from other sources.' Moreover, with the rapid</sup> growth of commercial banks during the<sup>1970s, the overall institutional system in 1981</sup> mo.viiized more deposits in rural areas than<sup>it lent to them. Of course, enhanced deposit</sup> services are a useful service for the rural population.<sup>Nevertheless, we must ask what has</sup> been the impact of large rural credit and enhanced<sup>financial services on agricultural</sup> investment, production and rural incomes.<sup>Our econometric results suggest that the rapid</sup> expansion of commercial banks in rural<sup>areas has had a substantially positive effect on rural</sup> nonfarm employment and output. The<sup>availability of better banking facilities appears to have</sup> overcome one of the obstacles of locating<sup>nonfarm activities in rural areas.</sup> II/ **The** controversial results of the All-India<sup>Debt and Investment Survey of 1981/82 suggests that real</sup> indebtedness may even have **declined.**

**38**
expenditure on intermediate goods), and production (goods category, exports, and ownership status), as well as other information included in standard firm-level surveys. Also, the INS data uniquely provide variables to identify internal and external innovation, which will be further described in the next subsection.

Since 2008, the INS has abridged questionnaires to reduce time and cost and to simplify the survey procedure. Consequently, questions related to internal and external innovation have been deleted. Therefore, I omitted observations for 2008 and 2009 and kept only those in manufacturing, with NACE codes between 15 and 36. I also omitted observations with missing information in labor, capital, material, and internal and external sources of innovation. Therefore, the total number of observations has been reduced to 16,471 for the period 1997 to 2007. A firm is repeatedly selected on average around four times during this period, which makes this data set similar to a weakly balanced panel that observes around 4,100 firms over a four-year period (the higher N, the small T), which is still a large enough sample to test the questions posed in this paper.

# _Innovation variables_

The concept of innovation is broadly studied in economics and managerial science literature, and typically understood as introducing new production processes, new products, new management methods, and new organization of production activities. These concepts have been measured with various proxies, depending on available data.

In most innovation surveys, such as the Community Innovation Survey (CIS), innovation has been defined as a process, products, and organizational activities that are new-to-market or new-to-firm.<sup>7</sup> However, innovation surveys are relatively new and have been conducted in a

> 7 . There are several limitations to the CIS, although it provides direct measures of innovation. First, the definition of an innovative firm is somewhat ambiguous. It asks firms if they have undertaken activities new to market or new to firm to measure innovation, and if the firm answers in the affirmative, it is treated as an innovator. Based on the new product/process measures in the survey, Cyprus and Portugal have been the most innovative countries in Europe for the past few years — which might raise concerns about this survey’s accuracy. Second, the surveys provide limited information. They usually do not give information on multifactor productivity, although they sometimes provide data on labor productivity. They also do not have information on organizational innovation or detail expenditures on various kinds of innovation investments.

12