rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Does gender matter for firm
            performance evidence from Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Using 2005 firm level data for 26
            countries in Eastern and Central Europe, this paper
            estimates performance gaps between male and female-owned
            businesses, while controlling for location by industry and
            country. The findings show that female entrepreneurs have a
            significantly smaller scale of operations (as measured by
            sales revenues) and are less efficient in terms of total
            factor productivity, although the difference is small.
            However, women entrepreneurs generate the same amount of
            profit per unit of revenue as men. Although both male and
            female entrepreneurs in the region are sub-optimally small,
            women's returns to scale are significantly larger than
            men's, implying that women would gain more from
            increasing their scale. The authors argue that the main
            reasons for the sub-optimal size of female-owned firms are
            that they are both capital constrained and concentrated in
            industries with small firms.
Refinements to the probabilistic
            approach to fiscal sustainability analysis
This paper relaxes some key assumptions
            in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability.
            First, the authors identify structural breaks over the
            sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the
            shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of
            normality of the shocks is dropped by modeling their
            respective empirical distribution directly, which makes it
            possible to quantify asymetries and thick tails. Third, the
            use of fiscal reaction functions is avoided by focusing
            attention on debt-stabilizing balances.
Trade diversion under selective
            preferential market access
Through its diverse trade preference
            schemes, the European Union provides different groups of
            developing countries with different degrees of market
            access. This paper is the first to demonstrate empirically
            that such staggered market access induces sizable trade
            diversion to the detriment of relatively less preferred
            beneficiary countries. In particular, preferences granted to
            African, Caribbean and Pacific economies are shown to impair
            the export performance of seven developing countries whose
            products only qualify for basic preferences under the
            Generalized System of Preferences. Exports to the European
            Union decline by about 30 percent if the African, Caribbean
            and Pacific tariff falls by 10 percentage points. In terms
            of forgone trade volume, losses for these relatively
            disadvantaged countries amount on average to 9 percent of
            their total trade with the European Union, depending on the
            country and its main exports. These intra-developing country
            distortions are driven by highly substitutable, often
            labor-intensive commodities.
Infrastructure and economic
            development in Sub-Saharan Africa
An adequate supply of infrastructure
            services has long been viewed by both academics and policy
            makers as a key ingredient for economic development.
            Sub-Saharan Africa ranks consistently at the bottom of all
            developing regions in terms of infrastructure performance,
            and an increasing number of observers point to deficient
            infrastructure as a major obstacle for growth and poverty
            reduction across the region. This paper offers an empirical
            assessment of the impact of infrastructure development on
            growth and inequality, with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa.
            The paper uses a comparative cross-regional perspective to
            place Africa's experience in the international context.
            Drawing from an updated data set of infrastructure quantity
            and quality indicators covering more than 100 countries and
            spanning the years 1960-2005, the paper estimates empirical
            growth and inequality equations including a standard set of
            control variables augmented by infrastructure quantity and
            quality measures, and controlling for the potential
            endogeneity of the latter. The estimates illustrate the
            potential contribution of infrastructure development to
            growth and equity across Africa.
Household investment under violence
            - the Colombian case
Households in rural Colombia are
            confronted with a variety of violent threats: attacks and
            displacement threats by guerrillas and paramilitaries, gang
            violence among drug traffickers, and high common
            delinquency. In this context, households have to adjust
            their day-to-day decisions, including saving and portfolio
            choices, in order to be less vulnerable. The authors test
            the hypothesis that households, when confronted with
            exogenous violence, reduce their investment and, moreover,
            shift it from fixed to mobile assets, which would be safer
            in the case of displacement, and choose the opposite
            strategy under higher common delinquency associated with
            property crimes. Empirical evidence from a rich Colombian
            micro-data set strongly supports the hypothesis. The results
            shed new light on the economic impact of violence. The
            immediate reduction in capital stock might be much less
            severe than more permanent damage via the savings function.
            This has implications for the appropriate political answer
            to chronic violence in Colombia as well as in other areas of
            chronic conflict.
Development, modernization, and son
            preference in fertility decisions
A family preference for sons over
            daughters may manifest itself in different ways, including
            higher mortality, worse health status, or lower educational
            attainment among girls. This study focuses on one measure of
            son preference in the developing world, namely the
            likelihood of continued childbearing given the gender
            composition of existing children in the family. The authors
            use an unusually large data set, covering 65 countries and
            approximately 5 million births. The analysis shows that son
            preference is apparent in many regions of the developing
            world and is particularly large in South Asia and in the
            Eastern Europe and Central Asia region. Modernization does
            not appear to reduce son preference. For example, in South
            Asia son preference is larger for women with more education
            and is increasing over time. The explanation for these
            patterns appears to be that latent son preference in
            childbearing is more likely to manifest itself when
            fertility levels are low. As a result of son preference,
            girls tend to grow up with significantly more siblings than
            boys do, which may have implications for their wellbeing if
            there are quantity-quality trade-offs that result in fewer
            material and emotional resources allocated to children in
            larger families.
How will climate change shift
            agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture
The study develops a new method to
            measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called
            the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is
            estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each
            district. The average percentage of cropland and average
            crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an
            estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is
            located is provided. Using current conditions, the model
            calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue,
            and estimates the future impact of climate change using two
            scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change
            much across the two climate scenarios. However, the
            predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss
            of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in
            the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the
            greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift
            farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not
            only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates
            where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of
            Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate
            scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new
            method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change
            on agriculture.
Black hole or black gold the impact
            of oil and gas prices on Indonesia's public finances
Indonesia's oil revenues and fuel
            subsidies dominate the nation's economic policy agenda.
            This paper estimates the impact of higher international oil
            prices on the Indonesian government's fiscal position
            in 2008 and beyond. It analyzes the interactions between
            government revenues and expenditures, as well as
            international oil prices, energy subsidies, and
            inter-governmental transfers. Looking at the impact of oil
            prices over US$100 per barrel, the paper presents five main
            findings. First, despite record high oil prices, the
            government's oil and gas revenues have been decreasing
            relative to non-oil and gas revenues since 2001. Second,
            fuel subsides will reach record levels in 2008 while
            electricity subsidies have been increasing even faster.
            Third, the paper finds that most of the fuel subsidy that
            directly benefits households goes to the richest 20 percent.
            Fourth, even at levels above US$100 per barrel, the
            government receives more revenues from oil and gas than it
            spends on energy subsidies. However, due to significant
            revenue-sharing with sub-national governments, high oil
            prices are net-negative for the central government, while
            they create fiscal windfalls for many regions. Finally, the
            oil sector's positive impact on Indonesia's public
            finances declines as oil prices rise, because subsidies and
            other expenditures outgrow oil and gas revenues.
Black hole or black gold the impact
            of oil and gas prices on Indonesia's public finances
WPS4718 Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4718

# Black Hole or Black Gold?

The Impact of Oil and Gas Prices on Indonesia’s Public Finances _Cut Dian R.D. Agustina Javier Arze del Granado Tim Bulman Wolfgang Fengler Mohamad Ikhsan_ The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Region Pacific Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit September 2008
General trends in competition policy
            and investment regulation in mandatory defined contribution
            markets in Latin America
Following Chile's pension reform in
            1981, a wave of multi-pillar pension reforms took place in
            Latin America (LAC). Their implementation has revealed new
            policy challenges. To shed light on these issues, this paper
            reviews the structure and performance of mandatory DC
            pillars in LAC. The review highlights three important
            points. First, it suggests overall positive outcomes from
            reforms in the LAC countries that implemented multi-pillar
            pension systems. There is, however, scope for increasing
            efficiency. Second, management fees have declined but remain
            relatively high whereas decreases in operational costs have
            only been partially passed through to consumers reflecting
            inadequate competition. Limits on transfers and related
            measures have been ineffective in curtailing management fees
            but created new barriers to entry. In recent years, a few
            countries in LAC introduced or are in the process of
            introducing a combination of new measures that focus more
            directly on the two root causes of inadequate competition -
            the inelasticity of demand to fees and selective elimination
            of barriers to entry by facilitating unbundling of services.
            These new measures show some promise. Third, the
            paper's review indicates that a greater diversification
            of pension fund portfolios in LAC appears to be necessary.
            Portfolio concentration owes to the adoption of strict
            quantitative investment regulations, underdeveloped capital
            markets and volatile macroeconomic environments. A gradual
            relaxation of these restrictions is now in progress in
            several countries. Regulators have become more conscious of
            the costs imposed by such regulations and macroeconomic
            conditions have improved. Greater overseas diversification
            seems inevitable given the development stage of local
            capital markets.
Institutions and labor market
            outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa
The authors use firm-level survey data
            from the manufacturing sector in 20 Sub-Saharan African
            countries to explore the links between labor market
            regulations and net job creation. A first look at firm
            characteristics, perceptions, and the dynamics of employment
            at the firm level suggests that labor regulations are not
            the main "binding constraint" on job creation.
            Other issues seem more important at this level of
            development. The analysis estimates the determinants of net
            job creation incorporating the legal origin of the country
            as a proxy for regulation. The findings show that, after
            controlling for other firm-level characteristics, legal
            origin is uncorrelated with net job creation in the short run.
Multi-product exporters :
            diversification and micro-level dynamics
Recent developments in trade theory,
            especially research on multi-product firms, have not been
            matched by similar progress on the empirical front. This
            paper aims to fill this gap by presenting a novel set of
            stylized facts on firm-product dynamics observed during an
            export boom. This exercise is possible thanks to a unique
            firm-product level dataset covering about 85 percent of
            Mexican industrial output for the period 1994-2003. The main
            findings are as follows. First, there is a substantial
            degree of product turnover at the firm-product level in
            response to declining trade costs. Second, "core
            competencies" -  the fact that firms have a  cost
            advantage or greater expertise  at manufacturing some of
            their products - are the main driver of firms' decision
            to introduce or drop export products. Third, new exporters
            tend to "start small" in terms of both values and
            number of exported products. Fourth, even if the expansion
            in the number of exported products played a role in
            stimulating Mexican exports, the growth in volume of
            pre-existing products was the main driver of the export
            boom. Finally, the introduction of new export products is
            preceded by a surge in investment. These findings are in
            line with many, but not all, predictions of recent
            theoretical work.
Simulating the impact of geographic
            targeting on poverty alleviation in Morocco : what are the
            gains from disaggregation
The authors employ the recently
            completed "poverty map" for Morocco, referring to
            the year 2004, as a tool for an ex-ante evaluation of the
            distributional incidence of geographic targeting of public
            resources. They simulate the impact on poverty of
            transferring an exogenously given budget to geographically
            defined sub-groups of the population according to their
            relative poverty status. In both rural and urban areas, the
            findings reveal large gains from targeting smaller
            administrative units, such as communes or districts.
            However, these gains are still far from the poverty
            reduction that would be possible had the planners had access
            to information on household level income or consumption. The
            results indicate that a useful way forward might be to
            combine fine geographic targeting using a poverty map with
            within-community targeting mechanisms.
Decentralization, economic
            development, and growth in Turkish provinces
There have been important developments
            in the decentralization of the government structure in
            Turkey since the early 1980s. This paper examines economic
            development and growth in Turkish provinces. Although there
            is a rich literature on the economic effects of government
            decentralization from both developed and developing
            countries, these effects have not been examined widely in
            the context of Turkish local governments. The authors first
            describe changes since the early 1980s and recent reform
            efforts. They then provide an empirical analysis of the
            effects of decentralization in Turkish provinces using
            cross-sectional and panel data approaches. The panel dataset
            consists of 67 provinces from 1976 to 2001. The analysis
            examines whether variations in local decentralization across
            these provinces and across time have had a significant
            impact on economic development and growth in those
            provinces. The findings suggest a weak negative economic
            effect of decentralization through a number of
            municipalities per capita. However, the findings do not show
            any significant impact from the creation of new provinces by
            separation from the existing ones.
Promotion with and without learning
            : effects on student enrollment and dropout behavior
Many educators and policymakers have
            argued for lenient grade promotion policy - even automatic
            promotion - in developing country settings where grade
            retention rates are high. The argument assumes that grade
            retention discourages persistence or continuation in school
            and that the promotion of children with lower achievement
            does not hamper their ability or their peers' ability
            to perform at the next level. Alternatively, promoting
            students into grades for which they are not prepared may
            lead to early dropout behavior. This study shows that in a
            sample of schools from the Northwest Frontier Province of
            Pakistan, students are promoted primarily on the basis of
            merit. An econometric decomposition of promotion decisions
            into a component that is based on merit indicators
            (attendance and achievement in mathematics and language) and
            another that is uncorrelated with those indicators allows a
            test of whether parental decisions to keep their child in
            school is influenced by merit-based or non-merit-based
            promotions. Results suggest that the enrollment decision is
            significantly influenced by whether learning has taken
            place, and that grade promotion that is uncorrelated with
            merit has a negligible impact on school continuation.
The relevance of a rules-based maize
            marketing policy : an experimental case study of Zambia
Strategic interaction between public and
            private actors is increasingly recognized as an important
            determinant of agricultural market performance in Africa and
            elsewhere. Trust and consultation tend to positively affect
            private activity while uncertainty of government behavior
            impedes it. This paper reports on a laboratory experiment
            based on a stylized model of the Zambian maize market. The
            experiment facilitates a comparison between discretionary
            interventionism and a rules-based policy in which the
            government pre-commits itself to a future course of action.
            A simple precommitment rule can, in theory, overcome the
            prevailing strategic dilemma by encouraging private sector
            participation. Although this result is also borne out in the
            economic experiment, the improvement in private sector
            activity is surprisingly small and not statistically
            significant due to irrationally cautious choices by
            experimental governments. Encouragingly, a rules-based
            policy promotes a much more stable market outcome, thereby
            substantially reducing the risk of severe food shortages.
            These results underscore the importance of predictable and
            transparent rules for the state's involvement in
            agricultural markets.
Determinants of choice of migration destination
Internal migration plays an important
            role in moderating regional differences in well-being. This
            paper analyzes migrants' choice of destination, using
            Census and Living Standard Surveys data from Nepal. The
            paper examines how the choice of a migration destination is
            influenced by income differentials, distance, population
            density, social proximity, and amenities. The study finds
            population density and social proximity to have a strong
            significant effect: migrants move primarily to high
            population density areas where many people share their
            language and ethnic background. Better access to amenities
            is significant as well. Differentials in expected income and
            consumption expenditures across districts are found to be
            relatively less important in determining migration
            destination choice as their effects are smaller in magnitude
            than those of other determinants. The results of the study
            suggest that an improvement in amenities (such as the
            availability of paved roads) at the origin could slow down
            out-migration substantially.