<!-- Start of picture text --> 0.9<br>AO<br>0.6<br>AR PEEEEE<br>T<br>N<br>TH PK<br>JOOOOO BRRRRR VNCNCNCNCNCN CO<br>NG DZ<br>VEEEEE<br>0.3 CZZZZZ KE UG PL CAMAAMAMAAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAMA RURPOTRPOTPOTOTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTOTTTTT<br>IDDDDD ZA<br>SAMYEGMYEGEGMYEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGEG CLTWTWTWTWTW MXXXXX<br>SK GB JP<br>DE BD KZZZZZ<br>HU<br>US PH TR<br>0.0 IT GR BE<br>AT<br>KRINININININ<br>SE ESAUAUAUAUAU<br>NL<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.9<br>AO<br>0.6<br>AR PEEEEE<br>T<br>N<br>TH PK<br>JOOOOO BRRRRR VNCNCNCNCNCN CO<br>NG DZ<br>VEEEEE<br>KE UG CAMAAMAMAAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAMA<br>0.3 CZZZZZ PL RURPOTRPOTPOTOTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTOTTTTT<br>IDDDDD ZA<br>CLTWTWTWTWTW<br>SAMYEGMYEGEGMYEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGEG MXXXXX<br>SK GB JP<br>DE BD KZZZZZ<br>HU<br>US PH TR<br>0.0 IT GR BE<br>AT<br>KRINININININ<br>SE ESAUAUAUAUAU<br>NL<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.9<br>AO<br>0.6<br>AR PEEEEE<br>T<br>N<br>TH PK<br>JOOOOO BRRRRR VNCNCNCNCNCN CO<br>NG DZ<br>VEEEEE<br>KE UG CAMAAMAMAAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAMA<br>0.3 CZZZZZ PL RURPOTRPOTPOTOTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTOTTTTT<br>IDDDDD ZA<br>CLTWTWTWTWTW<br>SAMYEGMYEGEGMYEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGEG MXXXXX<br>SK GB JP<br>DE BD KZZZZZ<br>HU<br>US PH TR<br>0.0 IT GR BE<br>AT<br>KRINININININ<br>SE ESAUAUAUAUAU<br>NL<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.9<br>AO<br>0.6<br>AR PEEEEE<br>T<br>N<br>TH PK<br>JOOOOO BRRRRR VNCNCNCNCNCN CO<br>NG DZ<br>VEEEEE<br>KE UG CAMAAMAMAAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAMA<br>0.3 CZZZZZ PL RURPOTRPOTPOTOTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTOTTTTT<br>IDDDDD ZA<br>CLTWTWTWTWTW<br>SAMYEGMYEGEGMYEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGEG MXXXXX<br>SK GB JP<br>DE BD KZZZZZ<br>HU<br>US PH TR<br>0.0 IT GR BE<br>AT<br>KRINININININ<br>SE ESAUAUAUAUAU<br>NL<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.9<br>AO<br>0.6<br>AR PEEEEE<br>T<br>N<br>TH PK<br>JOOOOO BRRRRR VNCNCNCNCNCN CO<br>NG DZ<br>VEEEEE<br>KE UG CAMAAMAMAAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAAMAMAMAMAMA<br>0.3 CZZZZZ PL RURPOTRPOTPOTOTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTRPOTPOTOTTPOTOTTOTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTPOTOTTOTTTOTTTTOTTTTT<br>IDDDDD ZA<br>CLTWTWTWTWTW<br>SAMYEGMYEGEGMYEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGMYEGEGEGEGEG MXXXXX<br>SK GB JP<br>DE BD KZZZZZ<br>HU<br>US PH TR<br>0.0 IT GR BE<br>AT<br>KRINININININ<br>SE ESAUAUAUAUAU<br>NL<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> −0.2<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.0<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.6<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.2<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.4<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Bottom Up Effect<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 4: Bottom-up and Top-down Treatment Effects, by country

# **Estimating treatment effects with covariate adjustment**

Next, we run linear models with and without covariate adjustments: as per the pre-analysis plan, we use simple OLS regressions of the outcome variables (the index or the two constituent parts) on the treatment indicators. In models with covariate adjustment, we include the pre-treatment covariates: age buckets, gender, and employment status.

As Table 4 shows, covariate adjustments do not change the estimated treatment effects appreciably.

Table 4: Average Treatment Effects with and without Covariate Adjustment (OLS)

||**Tax index**<br>**raw**|**Tax index**<br>**controls**|**Tax**<br>**morale**<br>**raw**|**Tax**<br>**morale**<br>**controls**|**Tax fine**<br>**raw**|**Tax fine**<br>**controls**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Top|0.231***|0.231***|0.119***|0.120***|0.111***|0.111***|
|down/Control|(0.017)|(0.017)|(0.010)|(0.010)|(0.010)|(0.010)|
|Bottom|0.157***|0.164***|0.065***|0.069***|0.092***|0.095***|
|up/Control|(0.018)|(0.018)|(0.010)|(0.010)|(0.011)|(0.010)|
|N|65429|65426|65430|65427|65432|65429|
|p|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Log-likelihood|-133337.7|-132601.4|-96130.6|-95363.8|-98885.6|-98487.5|

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