set of questions asked farmers to indicate whether these same types events are, in the present, becoming more or less likely. The purpose was to compare perceptions of the present with expectations of the future, and see if they agreed qualitatively.

On all questions, participants indicated their answer on a horizontal scale. For the likelihood estimations, the scale ranged from 0 (will not occur) to 100 (will certainly occur). On the change questions, the scale ranged from –100 (becoming much less frequent) to 100 (becoming much more frequent). Seventy-five farmers from the village of Chiguidela completed the questionnaire, which took place in a three-hour sitting, with the farmers dividing into groups of 6 to 8 people, each being led by a facilitator who explained each question and helped illiterate farmers to answer them. The farmers filled out a paper copy of the questionnaire, written in Portuguese but verbally translated into the local language by the facilitators, and indicated their estimate by drawing an arrow to point to some place on the scale. Sixty-nine policy makers completed the questionnaire, and represented a diverse group of high-level decision-makers, program managers, and technicians. Many of these did so as part of training sessions organized by the Mozambique Meteorological Department and Mozambique Red Cross, completing the same paper survey as the farmers, while the remainder responded to an email invitation. The latter filled out the survey online, choosing English or Portuguese, and moving an onscreen slider bar to indicate their answers.

The results supported the second hypothesis, namely differences in probability perception between the two groups. As seen in Figure 2, on the first set of question farmers indicated the likelihood of the non-climate events (69.1% on average) being higher than the climate related events (65.6%), although the difference was not significant ( _student’s t_ = 1.58, _p_ = 0.12). Policy makers indicated the likelihood of a non-climate event being lower (55.9%) than the climate related events (60.3%), although the difference between the two types of events was only marginally significant ( _student’s t_ = 1.96, _p_ = 0.054) significant. When the difference between the climate related events and the non-climate related events is compared, the difference between farmers and policy makers does become significant ( _student’s t_ = 2.51, _p_ = 0.01; _Mann-Whitney z_ = 2.62, _p_ = 0.009). Farmers indicated that the non-climate related events were on average 3.4% more likely than the climate related event, while policy makers indicated the non-climate related events being on average 4.4% _less_ likely than the climate related events.

On the second set of questions, farmers thought that the climate related risks would be less likely in the future than they are now, by an average of 5.8% ( _student’s t_ = 1.66, _p_ = 0.10), as Figure 3 shows. Most of the drop resulted from the assessed likelihood of losing their crop to droughts, which farmers assessed at 70% likely today, and only 49% likely in the future. Farmers thought that the non-climate related risks would be more likely in the future than they are now by an average of 1.9%, although the change was not significant ( _student’s t_ = 0.94, _p_ = 0.35). Policy makers, by contrast, thought that climate related events would be on average 7.7% more likely in the future than today ( _student’s t_ = 3.19, _p_ = 0.002), and non-climate related events would be 3.3% more likely in the future than today ( _student’s t_ = 1.68, _p_ = 0.099).

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