# Contents

|**I.**<br>**Introduction**............................................................................................................... 3|
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|**II.**<br>**Methodology**.......................................................................................................... 6|
|**Identifying oil-supply events ........................................................................................ 9**|
|Table 2.1: Demand news and event days .................................................................. 11|
|Table 2.2: Tests of differences in variance of oil price changes ............................... 12|
|**III.**<br>**Data**...................................................................................................................... 13|
|Table 3.1: Summary statistics ................................................................................... 14|
|**IV.**<br>**Results**.................................................................................................................. 16|
|**Overall US market ...................................................................................................... 16**|
|Table 4.1: Impacts of WTI oil price on overall markets ........................................... 17|
|Table 4.2: Persistence of oil price shocks ................................................................. 18|
|**On volatility ................................................................................................................. 19**|
|Table 4.3: Oil price declines and the VIX index ....................................................... 19|
|**The US Market: Breakdown by sector and asset class ............................................ 19**|
|Table 4.4: Breakdown by sector and asset class ....................................................... 21|
|**V.** **Impact on Emerging Markets**................................................................................ 23|
|Table 5.1 MSCI Emerging Market index .................................................................. 23|
|Table 5.2 Dollar index (broad) .................................................................................. 24|
|Table 5.3 MSCI Gulf States Index ............................................................................ 25|
|**VI Discussion on potential channels**.............................................................................. 26|
|**VII Conclusion**................................................................................................................ 27|
|**APPENDIX**...................................................................................................................... 29|
|**Table A1: 29 Event dates ............................................................................................ 29**|
|**Figure A1: SeekingAlpha news article – Sample ..................................................... 33**|
|**Appendix B: Dealing with the small sample problem.............................................. 34**|
|Table B.1: Shapiro-Wilk W Test .............................................................................. 34|
|**References** ........................................................................................................................ 37|

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