rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Women in Paid Employment : A Role
            for Public Policies and Social Norms in Guatemala
With only 32 percent of working-age
            women in the labor market, Guatemala is an
            upper-middle-income country with one of the lowest rates of
            female labor force participation in the Latin America and
            the Caribbean region, and in the world. The rate of female
            labor force participation is especially low in the poor
            regions of the North and the Northwest. This paper explores
            information from different micro data sets, including the
            most recent Population Census (2002 and 2018) to assess the
            drivers of the recent progress.  Between 2002 and 2018, the
            female labor force participation rate increased 5.7
            percentage points, from an average of 26 to 32 percent
            nationwide. This increase was partly explained by the
            drastic increases in the educational attainment of women,
            the reduction in fertility, and the country’s structural
            transformation toward services. However, a large component
            remains unexplained. Exploring 2018 data, the paper shows
            that social norms, attitudes toward women in society, and
            public policies are important determinants of these changes.
            The analysis suggests that, taken together, these factors
            can all become an important source of increased female labor
            force participation moving forward.
Public Debt Reporting in Developing Countries
More than 20 developing countries do not
            publish any data on their sovereign debt. In those that do
            disclose data, public debt statistics usually do not comply
            with international standards in terms of coverage and
            definitions. Some information can be deduced through
            indirect disclosure of debt statistics to external agents,
            such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund,
            and this can help minimize data gaps. This paper has two
            main objectives. First, it measures the extent of
            transparency in direct reporting and identifies the factors
            that promote it. The results show that debt transparency is
            fostered by standardized recording and reporting systems,
            high levels of external scrutiny (for example, Eurobond
            issuance and ratings), and the presence of highly skilled
            staff at the local debt office. Second, the paper describes
            the reporting ecosystem in which two type of channels
            (direct and indirect) coexist and provides novel estimates
            of the data gaps across the two. Cross-comparison of direct
            reporting and the World Bank&#x2013;International
            Monetary Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis shows that
            deviations in public debt stocks can represent up to 30
            percent of national gross domestic product. Based on these
            results, the paper puts forward a call for action to (i)
            improve debt transparency by focusing on those factors that
            best promote transparency; (ii) shifting the focus of
            multilateral development banks&#x2019; operations and
            technical assistance from indirect to direct reporting;
            (iii) introducing minimum but enforceable international
            standards for direct reporting; and (iv) promoting the use
            of modern and integrated debt recording and reporting systems.
The Returns to Innovation in East
            Asia : The Role of the Business Environment and Firms' Characteristics
The paper studies the relationship
            between innovation efforts, innovation outputs, and
            productivity, using firm-level data from six East Asian
            countries. Firms are more likely to invest in innovation
            when they use technology licensed by a foreign company, are
            part of a large group, and have a more educated workforce.
            Investment in research and development can significantly
            boost both product and process innovation. Product
            innovation yields significant productivity gains. However,
            productivity gains from process innovation are not
            detectable in the sample.
Resource-Backed Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper investigates the
            characteristics of resource-backed lending across
            Sub-Saharan Africa. To shed light on this type of lending,
            the paper presents new information on 30 resource-backed
            loans between 2004 and 2018, identified through publicly
            available information. These loans were concentrated in a
            few countries, where they represented a sizable fraction of
            all borrowing and were typically taken by central
            governments and state-owned enterprises. Although the loan
            terms are mostly opaque, where data are available, the study
            finds that such loans are not cheaper than regular loans.
            The paper highlights opportunities to transparency and
            offers some suggestions for improving the governance of
            collateralized borrowings across developing countries.
Anatomy of Brazil’s Subjective
            Well-Being : A Tale of Growing Discontent and Polarization
            in the 2010s
After increasing for years and reaching
            high levels, Brazil’s subjective well-being deteriorated
            following the economic contraction in 2015. Using data from
            the Gallup World Poll for the 2010s, this paper identifies
            the factors that underpin Brazil’s subjective well-being and
            its change, paying special attention to heterogeneity across
            population groups. Having sufficient income, financial
            security, economic optimism, satisfaction with living
            standards and health services, social capital, tertiary
            education, and digital access are the main factors
            associated with subjective well-being. These factors matter
            to different extents along the income distribution and
            across generations and space. The decline in subjective
            well-being since 2015 was heterogeneous and more pronounced
            among men, rural residents, and the old. Economic
            expectations increased in importance as they assumed a
            greater role in people’s preferences, especially those of
            men, and more people grew pessimistic about the economic
            outlook. The decline in subjective well-being and the switch
            in voter support from one end of the political spectrum to
            the other in the 2018 general elections were both associated
            with the grievances triggered by the economic and leadership
            crisis of the mid-2010s. These grievances signal an erosion
            in the support for the social contract in place since the
            1990s and the need to renew it.
Hidden Defaults
China’s lending boom to developing
            countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given
            the secrecy surrounding China’s loans, also the associated
            defaults remain “hidden”, as missed payments and
            restructuring details are not disclosed. This paper
            constructs an encompassing dataset of sovereign debt
            restructurings with Chinese lenders and finds that these
            credit events are surprisingly frequent, exceeding the
            number of sovereign bond or Paris Club restructurings.
            Chinese lenders follow a resolution approach reminiscent of
            1980s Western lenders; they seldom provide deep debt relief
            with face value reduction. If history is any guide,
            multi-year debt workouts with serial restructurings lie in store.
A Dynamic Model of Fiscal
            Decentralization and Public Debt Accumulation
This paper develops a dynamic
            infinite-horizon model with two layers of governments to
            study theoretically and quantitatively how fiscal
            decentralization affects local and central government debt
            accumulation and spending. In the model, the central
            government makes transfers to local governments to offset
            vertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances. But the
            anticipation of transfers lowers local governments’ expected
            cost of borrowing and leads to overborrowing ex ante. Absent
            commitment, the central government over-transfers to reduce
            local governments’ future need to borrow, and in the
            equilibrium both local and central debts are inefficiently
            high. Consistent with empirical evidence, when fiscal
            decentralization widens vertical fiscal imbalances, local
            governments become more reliant on transfers, and both local
            and central debts rise. Applied to Spain, the model explains
            39 percent of the rise in total government debt when the
            vertical fiscal imbalances widened during 1988–1996, and 18
            percent of the fall in debt when the imbalances narrowed
            during 1996–2006.
Life out of the Shadows : The
            Impacts of Regularization Programs on the Lives of Forced Migrants
This paper examines the well-being
            effects of a regularization program offered to half a
            million Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. It collects
            data on more than two thousand such migrants and used it to
            compare the well-being of those who arrived in Colombia
            before and after the date that defined program eligibility.
            This date was announced ex post and was generally unknown to
            the public, and thus enables us to credibly evaluate the
            program&#x2019;s impact. The authors find that program
            beneficiaries experienced large improvements in well-being,
            including consumption per capita (a gain of 48 percent) and
            monthly labor income (an increase of 22 percent). These
            effects stemmed from greater registration rates in the
            system that assesses vulnerability and awards public
            transfers (22 pp) and from financial services (44.4 pp).
Debt Vulnerability Analysis : A
            Multi-Angle Approach : Debt Vulnerability Analysis : A Multi-Angle
Countries with high debt exposure are
            vulnerable to economic and financial shocks that could lead
            to sovereign defaults. This paper develops a methodology to
            identify countries that are at risk of debt default based on
            four elements of debt vulnerability. These elements capture
            the different ways in which risks associated with high debt
            are assessed, namely: (i) the fundamental, (ii) the
            subjective, (iii) the judgmental, and (iv) the theoretical.
            The fundamental element considers the liquidity, solvency,
            and institutional risk elements of debt vulnerability. The
            subjective element captures the investors’ perceptions of
            debt default, while the judgmental element is based on the
            debt thresholds as defined by Debt Sustainability
            Frameworks. Finally, the theoretical element is normative
            and captures what ought to be. The methodology constructs an
            index for each of these four elements and uses them as
            predictors in a model of public debt default. The
            methodology flags countries that are at risk of default by
            means of machine learning techniques and delivers outputs
            that point to underlying causes of vulnerability. The
            methodology complements existing monitoring tools for
            assessing debt sustainability.
Debt Vulnerability Analysis : A
            Multi-Angle Approach : Debt Vulnerability Analysis : A Multi-Angle
Policy Research Working Paper 9929

# Debt Vulnerability Analysis

A Multi-Angle Approach _Doerte Doemeland Marcello Estevão Charl Jooste James Sampi Vasileios Tsiropoulos_ Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice February 2022
What Do We Know about Poverty in
            India in 2017/18
This paper nowcasts poverty in India,
            one of the countries with the largest population below the
            international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day.
            Because the latest official household survey dates back to
            2011/12, there is considerable uncertainty about recent
            poverty trends in the country. Applying a pass-through and
            survey-to-survey methodology, extreme poverty (at the $1.90
            poverty line) for India in 2017 is estimated at 10.4 percent
            with a confidence interval of [8.1, 11.3]. The urban and
            rural poverty rates are estimated at 7.2 and 12.0 percent,
            respectively. Across a wide range of publicly available data
            sources, the paper finds no evidence of an increase in
            poverty between 2011/12 and 2017/18.
Scars of Pandemics from Lost
            Schooling and Experience : Aggregate Implications and Gender
            Differences Through the Lens of COVID-19
Pandemic shocks disrupt human capital
            accumulation through schooling and work experience. This
            study quantifies the long-term economic impact of these
            disruptions in the case of COVID-19, focusing on countries
            at different levels of development and using returns to
            education and experience by college status that are globally
            estimated using 1,084 household surveys across 145
            countries. The results show that both lost schooling and
            experience contribute to significant losses in global
            learning and output. Developed countries incur greater
            losses than developing countries, because they have more
            schooling to start with and higher returns to experience.
            The returns to education and experience are also separately
            estimated for men and women, to explore the differential
            effects by gender of the COVID-19 pandemic. Surprisingly,
            while the study uncovers gender differences in returns to
            education and schooling, gender differences in the impact of
            COVID-19 are small and short-lived, with a loss in female
            relative income of only 2.5 percent or less, mainly due to
            the greater severity of the employment shock on impact.
            These findings might challenge some of the ongoing
            narratives in policy circles. The methodology employed in
            this study is easily implementable for future pandemics.
Understanding and Predicting Job
            Losses due to COVID-19 : Empirical Evidence from Middle
            Income Countries
This paper utilizes firm survey data to
            understand which formal private sector jobs are most at risk
            from COVID-19 or similar future crises, based on empirical
            evidence from two middle-income economies. In particular, it
            estimates the importance for formal private sector job
            losses of various COVID-19 pandemic-related labor market
            shocks and mitigating factors, such as the closure of
            non-essential industries, workers&#x2019; ability to
            perform their jobs from home, infection risks to workers,
            customers&#x2019; infection risk, global demand shocks,
            input supply constraints, employers&#x2019; financial
            constraints, and government support, in determining the
            level and distribution of job losses. This provides an
            empirical identification of the main risk factors for job
            loss and a basis for predicting the level and distribution
            of these losses due to the crisis for permanent formal
            private sector (PFPS) jobs in core productive manufacturing
            and service sectors (captured by World Bank Enterprise
            Surveys) in Jordan and Georgia. Comparing the empirical
            findings across the two countries, the paper assesses the
            degree of commonality of these risk factors. Job losses are
            projected for different groups within the employed
            population prior to the outbreak of COVID-19 and compared
            with post-crisis labor force data. The results indicate that
            in these countries the level of job losses is predominantly
            due to a reduction in demand rather than a reduction in the
            supply of labor. Closures, global demand shocks, supply
            disruptions, and other unexplained demand-side shocks are
            significant determinants of jobs lost. The sensitivity of
            employment to closures, supply disruptions, and sales shocks
            was of similar magnitudes in both countries; however,
            variation in infection risk was a significant determinant of
            sales only in Georgia. At the same time, Georgian formal
            firms were better able to rebound their sales and hire back
            workers than formal firms in Jordan. Finally, the paper
            finds no evidence that firms with workers performing tasks
            that can be performed from home were better able to preserve
            jobs, given the dominant role of firm-level demand and
            supply chain shocks.
The Distribution of Crisis Credit :
            Effects on Firm Indebtedness and Aggregate Risk
This paper studies the distribution of
            credit during crisis times and its impact on firm
            indebtedness and macroeconomic risk. Whereas policies can
            help firms in need of financing, they can lead to adverse
            selection from riskier firms and higher default risk. The
            paper analyzes a large-scale program of public credit
            guarantees in Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic using
            unique transaction-level data on the demand and supply of
            credit, matched with administrative tax data, for the
            universe of banks and firms. Credit demand channels loans
            toward riskier firms, distributing 4.6 percent of gross
            domestic product and increasing firm leverage. Despite
            increased lending to riskier firms, macroeconomic risks
            remain small. Several factors mitigate aggregate risk: the
            small weight of riskier firms, the exclusion of the riskiest
            firms, bank screening, contained expected defaults, and the
            government absorption of tail risk. The empirical findings
            are confirmed with a model of heterogeneous firms and
            endogenous default.
Bureaucrats, Tournament Competition,
            and Performance Manipulation : Evidence from Chinese Cities
Tournament competition is viewed as
            motivating bureaucrats in promoting growth. This paper
            examines how this incentive leads to economic performance
            manipulation. Using data from Chinese cities, the analysis
            shows that performance exaggeration increases over the
            course of the first term of the top bureaucrat, peaking in
            the last year of his or her term. Winning a tournament
            competition is behind this performance manipulation:
            political rivals reinforce each other in exaggerating
            performance, and political competition intensifies the
            tendency for manipulation. Performance exaggeration leads to
            higher chances of promotion, but the ratchet effect (that
            is, better performance today leading to a higher target
            tomorrow) and the potential to blame predecessors induce
            restraint. A good local institutional environment also
            restrains performance manipulation.
Improving Multi-Topic Household
            Surveys for Better Transport Policy Analysis
Household surveys remain underutilized
            for understanding transport choices such as expenditure
            level and composition, the economic impacts of road
            accidents, and the economic and distributional impacts of
            environmental policies such as vehicle restrictions or fuel
            taxes. This paper reviews more than 30 Living Standards
            Measurement Study surveys conducted after 2010, non-Living
            Standards Measurement Study surveys, and two World Bank
            harmonized household survey databases, to compile and
            categorize an extensive list of transport-related questions.
            The paper discusses current limitations in using Living
            Standards Measurement Study household surveys. Most of the
            transport-related questions in the Living Standards
            Measurement Study survey collection are not harmonized
            across years and countries. Consistent and more detailed
            data on road accidents and the type and use of vehicles
            should be added to help design and evaluate road safety and
            climate policies. A standard set of guidelines and sample
            questions to be integrated into future household surveys is
            therefore provided.
Electronic Payment Technology and
            Tax Compliance : Evidence from Uruguay’s Financial Inclusion Reform
Does the digitization of transactions in
            an economy increase tax compliance? This paper studies the
            effect of financial incentives on the adoption of electronic
            payment technology and on tax compliance by firms.
            Exploiting administrative data and policy variation from
            Uruguay, the paper shows that i) consumer value-added tax
            rebates for credit and debit card transactions trigger an
            immediate 50 percent increase in the number of card
            transactions, ii) firms' use of card machines increases
            only on the intensive margin, and iii) tax compliance is
            unaffected. Endogenous card machine adoption and a low share
            of card sales in total reported sales can rationalize the findings.