contain more noise than the model predictions (including due to outliers).<sup>40</sup> In practice, as detailed further below, we find that for aggregate job losses, the predicted and survey measured levels from CFUWBES2 match reasonably well for both countries, supporting the stability of the proximate causal relationships estimated in Section 4 over a short time horizon. When compared with actual COVID-19 period labor force monitoring data (discussed in the subsequent paragraph), we generally find that the model-predicted estimates come closer to the actual observed groupwise distribution of job losses than the survey-measured projections do.

The second, more important validity check we perform is to examine the divergence between our model projections and a COVID-period monitoring survey of labor market impacts. For Jordan, we use the COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey (CMMHH), conducted in January-March 2021 (See Figure 6, which depicts the surveys’ relative timelines). The sampling frame for this survey differs from that of the LMPS survey in that it does not include “other” nationalities (non-Jordanian, Syrian, or Palestinian). In addition, the surveys utilized different definitions of industry categories, work arrangements, and employment types. In particular, the definitions used for “permanent” jobs varies. Finally, the survey’s timing did not align perfectly with that of CFUWBES2. Therefore, one might expect some differences between the levels of PFPS job losses captured, Nonetheless, this comparison can provide an indication of the validity of our methodology.

_Figure 7: Jordan: Timeline of Surveys_

||||CFUWBES1|||CFUWB|ES2|CMMHH|, 2021||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Apr-20|May-20|Jun-20|Jul-20<br>Aug-20|Sep-20|Oct-20|Nov-20|Dec-20|Jan-21|Feb-21|Mar-21|

Source: CFUWBES Implementation Reports and COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey Study Description. Notes: The CFUWBES asked employee levels at the end of the “last completed month”, and the CMMHH asked individuals about their main activity in the “past month.” _Figure 8: Georgia: Timeline of Surveys_

|||CFUW<br>BES1|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||||CFUWBES2|GHFPS1||||
|Apr-20|May-20|Jun-20|Jul-20 Aug-20<br>Sep-20|Oct-20 Nov-20|Dec-20|Jan-21|Feb-21|Mar-21|

Source: CFUWBES Implementation Reports and GHFPS round 1 main findings. Notes: The CFUWBES asked employee levels at the end of the “last completed month”, and the GHFPS1 (Georgia High-Frequency Phone Survey) asked individuals about whether they lost jobs due to COVID-19 since March 2020.

For Georgia, unfortunately, the available data do not permit us to perform the same type of validity check. As shown in Figure 8, there was a High-Frequency Phone Survey (GHFPS) conducted in December 2020, just a month after CFUWBES2. However, this survey does not follow a sufficiently similar sampling approach to a labor force survey. The World Bank’s high-frequency phone surveys generally only capture data on the individual responding to the phone call, which in some countries has skewed samples toward the household head. In addition, the GHFPS does not permit one to net out job gains by other workers that may have

> 40 Moreover, both approaches to estimating job losses depend upon the modeled assignment of production versus nonproduction workers and the mapping to the LMPS.

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