# Contents

|I – Introduction............................................................................................................................................. 7|
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|**I.I – Definitions of Poverty in Central Asia**........................................................................................... 8|
|**I.II – The Middle Class in Kazakhstan, and Average Per Capita Consumption**.............................. 15|
|II – Data...................................................................................................................................................... 17|
|**II.I – Districts by Country**..................................................................................................................... 18|
|**II.II – Kazakhstan HBS data for 2017**.................................................................................................. 18|
|**II.III – Uzbekistan L2CU Baseline Survey 2018**................................................................................. 19|
|**II.IV – Kyrgyz Republic HBS 2016**....................................................................................................... 19|
|**II.V – Tajikistan L2T Baseline Survey for 2015**................................................................................... 20|
|**II.VI – Satellite and Administrative Data**............................................................................................ 20|
|III – Fay-Herriot Small Area Estimation Model........................................................................................... 21|
|IV – Results................................................................................................................................................. 23|
|V – Concluding Remarks and Example Applications.................................................................................... 28|
|VI – References........................................................................................................................................... 32|
|VII – Annexes.............................................................................................................................................. 33|
|**Annex A – Kazakhstan District-level Results 2017**.............................................................................. 33|
|**Annex B – Uzbekistan District-level Results 2018**.............................................................................. 40|
|**Annex C – Kyrgyz Republic District-level Results 2016**..................................................................... 46|
|**Annex D – Tajikistan District-level Results 2015**................................................................................ 48|
|**Annex E – Country-Level Maps**........................................................................................................... 51|
|**Annex F – Validation and Precision**..................................................................................................... 66|
|**Annex G – Comparison of Domain Variance Estimation Alternatives**............................................. 72|
|**Annex H – Regression Model Details**.................................................................................................. 74|
|**Annex I – Sensitivity to Model Selection Technique**.......................................................................... 76|
|**Annex J – K-fold Model Selection Sensitivity Analysis**....................................................................... 78|

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