cients associated with the inclusion of an interaction term with uncertain effects are statistically significant for shocks to the agriculture sector, but not for shocks to the extractive sector. The coefficient is positive for AS+ and negative for AS-. Therefore, these uncertain moderators tend to behave like risk enhancers of AS+, and risk absorbers for AS-. Overall, our results suggest that the authors prefer to highlight contrasted results that support the mechanisms being tested. For instance, Jia (2014) provides evidence about the detrimental impact of droughts and other negative weather shocks (AS-) on conflicts in historical Chinese prefectures (from 1470-1900) but she finds that cultivating sweet potatoes (drought resistant, risk absorber) mitigates this impact. These findings support her hypothesis that weather shocks increase the risk of revolt due to their negative impact on food supply. Columns [2], [6], and [10] indicate that the presence of publication bias depends on the type of interaction tested. Studies focusing on AS+ prefer a result for the intercept that shows a lower risk of conflict when they include an interaction with a risk enhancer. Similarly, studies focusing on HS+ and AS- tend to prefer an intercept showing a higher risk of conflict when there is an interaction with a risk absorber. This indicates a small or modest Type I publication selection bias: a tendency to select interaction terms of opposite direction as long as they support the tested mechanism.<sup>21</sup> Table 4: Explaining Heterogeneity in the Estimated Effects of Income Shocks on Conflicts [Inclusion of Interactions]

||[1]|[2]<br>|[3]<br>|[4]|[5]<br>**Main **|[6]<br> **channels of **<br>|[7]<br>**transmission**<br>|[8]<br>|[9]|[10]<br>|[11]<br>|[12]|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||AS|+|||A|S-||||HS+||
|**Whole sample**|||||||||||||
|Precision (1/SE)|**-0.003 *****|**-0.003 ****|**-0.003 ****|**-0.003 *****|-0.001|0.000|-0.001|-0.001|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|
||**(0.001)**|**(0.001)**|**(0.001)**|**(0.001)**|(0.001)|(0.000)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|
|Constant|-0.312|-0.124|**-0.714 ***|-0.332|**1.641 *****|**2.121 *****|**1.463 *****|**1.665 *****|0.566|**0.899 ***|0.287|0.549|
||(0.397)|(0.406)|**(0.390)**|(0.400)|**(0.296)**|**(0.270)**|**(0.321)**|**(0.294)**|(0.460)|**(0.474)**|(0.467)|(0.461)|
|**_Type of interaction_**|||||||||||||
|Risk absorber=1||**-2.175 *****||||**-3.435 *****||||**-2.726 *****|||
|||**(0.241)**||||**(0.107)**||||**(0.235)**|||
|Risk enhancer=1|||**2.923 *****||||**1.405 *****||||**2.385 *****||
||||**(0.179)**||||**(0.167)**||||**(0.287)**||
|Risks uncertain=1||||**0.743 ****||||**-0.912 ****||||-0.298|
|||||**(0.318)**||||**(0.442)**||||(0.304)|
|#studies|25|25|25|25|34|34|34|34|14|14|14|14|
|Observations|808|808|808|808|951|951|951|951|543|543|543|543|
|%Observations|33%|33%|33%|33%|39%|39%|39%|39%|22%|22%|22%|22%|

Notes: All models are estimated with a multilevel mixed-effects model on the whole sample of 2,464 observations and 64 studies. The dependent variable is the _t_ -statistic of the estimate of interest on conflicts as dependent variable. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Columns [1] to [4] focus on positive agricultural shocks, columns [5] to [8] focus on negative agricultural shocks, and columns [9] to [12] focus on positive hydrocarbon/mineral shocks. Results on pure (positive and negative) climatic shocks and other potential shocks are presented in Table A2 from the Appendices section. A detailed description of all variables is available in Table A3. The detailed composition of risk absorbers, risk enhancers and risk uncertain is available in Tables A9 and A10. _∗p <_ 0 _._ 10 _, ∗∗ p <_ 0 _._ 05 _, ∗∗∗p <_ 0 _._ 01. _Source: Authors’ compilation from MRA database._ 21 Empirically, a lower (or higher) value of the intercept (i.e. the effect of the shock when the interaction term is null) implies a seemingly smaller (or larger) risk of conflict when the conditions of interaction term are not met.

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