2008/09 recession<sup>32</sup> have had on learning and labor market returns in the short and long term respectively. School enrollment and achievement can fall sharply. Any recovery can take many years,<sup>33</sup> and adolescent girls stand to be particularly adversely affected<sup>34</sup> – as do marginalized groups.

As COVID-19 plays out much of this looks poised to be repeated – particularly in countries with the weakest safety nets. On the demand side, income shocks could lead families to put their children to work. Many may never go back to school. This is a particular problem for girls, persons with disabilities, and marginalized groups.<sup>35</sup> On the supply side, governments are showing signs of becoming cash strapped as they attempt to bolster funding to the frontlines of a nationwide disaster. In countries where many students are enrolled in low-fee private schools, the income shock to households coupled with shrinking possibilities for government support could put their very survival at risk.<sup>36</sup> As families cannot afford any fees, pressure on a cash strapped public system increases.

_School closures may lead to a jump in the number of dropouts and an erosion of learning_ Increased dropout rates are one important channel linking emergency school closures and other educational disruptions to losses in average lifetime educational attainment. In general, as children age, the opportunity cost of staying in school increases. This may make it harder for households to justify sending older children back to school after a forced interruption, especially if households are under financial stress. In the 1916 polio epidemic, researchers hypothesize that children of legal working age (13 in most U.S. states at that time) were more likely to leave school permanently following epidemic-related shutdowns. Such effects are not restricted to public-health emergencies. Reduced enrollment rates were also observed in Indonesia after economic adjustment in the 1980s.<sup>37</sup> Evidence indicates that _any_ interruption in schooling, including scheduled vacations, can lead to a loss of learning for many children. Cooper et al. (1996) find that, on average, U.S. students’ achievement scores decline by about a month’s worth during the three-month summer break. Kim and Quinn (2013) find that students from low income background are particularly affected by summer learning loss. Similarly, Alexander, Pitcock, and Boulay (2016) find that around 25 to 30 percent of learning achieved over the school year is typically lost during summer holiday periods. Moreover, interruptions during critical schooling stages of life can lead to much worse outcomes. For example, an interruption during third grade, when students are mastering how to read, may lead to higher dropout rates and worse life prospects including poverty.<sup>38</sup> _The long-term effects of COVID-19 are unknown, but past disruptions suggest they will be large and lasting_ Beyond estimates of immediate impacts, the literature also provides some insights on the longlasting impacts of shocks and resulting parental concerns around school safety. Meyers and

> 32 Shores and Steinberg (2017). 33 World Bank (1998). 34 Bandiera et al. (2019). 35 McClain-Nhlapo, (2020). 36 Yousafzai, (2020). 37 World Bank (1998) 38 Lloyd (1978); Hernandez (2011)

7