_<mark>Notes:</mark>_ <mark>The table presents fuzzy regression discontinuity estimates of the effect of differential aerial spraying on cultivation around the 10 km cutoff. Columns 1 to 4 pool the years 2006 to 2010; while columns 5 to 8 pool the years 2008 to 2010. Results use different approximations of the conditional expectation, as indicated in the top of each panel. Moreover, sample restrictions and the choice of bandwidth is indicated at the bottom of each panel. In all models we include municipality and year specific intercepts. Standard errors robust against heteroskedasticity and serial correlation within cells are reported in parenthesis. Estimates with</mark><sup>***</sup> <mark>are significant at the 1%, those with</mark><sup>**</sup> <mark>are significant at the 5%, and those with</mark><sup>*</sup> <mark>are significant at the 10%.</mark> _<mark>Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, UNODC.</mark>_

|Table 3. Conditio|nal Diffe<br>Es|rences in<br>timates fo|Differenc<br>r cultivat|es Estima<br>ion|te of Be<br>E|ingin Spr<br>stimates|ayed Reg<br>for sprayi|ion.[RS6]<br>ng|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||Controll|ing for pr<br>score|opensity||Controll|ing for pr<br>score|opensity|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|
||||Panel<br>|A: Pooled<br>|-years es<br>|timates|||
|Pooling 2006 to<br>2010:|-0.239<br>***|-0.227 <sup>***</sup>|-0.150 <sup>***</sup>|-0.222 <sup>***</sup>|<sup>0.077</sup><br>***|0.100 <sup>***</sup>|0.104 <sup>***</sup>|0.095 <sup>***</sup>|
||(0.015)|(0.022)|(0.021)|(0.021)|(0.002)|(0.004)|(0.004)|(0.004)|
||[0.053]|[0.052]|[0.024]|[0.052]|[0.011]|[0.011]|[0.007]|[0.011]|
|Observations|54400|54400|54400|54400|54400|54400|54400|54400|
|Pooling 2008 to<br>2010:|-0.153<br>***|-0.140 <sup>***</sup>|-0.067 <sup>***</sup>|-0.132 <sup>***</sup>|<sup>0.104</sup><br>***|0.124 <sup>***</sup>|0.122 <sup>***</sup>|0.119 <sup>***</sup>|
||(0.012)|(0.019)|(0.020)|(0.018)|(0.003)|(0.004)|(0.005)|(0.004)|
||[0.053]|[0.052]|[0.024]|[0.052]|[0.011]|[0.011]|[0.007]|[0.011]|
|Observations|32640|32640|32640|32640|32640|32640|32640|32640|
||||Panel|B: Year-b|y-year es|timates|||
|Estimate for 2006:|<sup>-0.581</sup><br>***|-0.571 <sup>***</sup>|-0.517 <sup>***</sup>|-0.579 <sup>***</sup>|<sup>0.057</sup><br>***|0.072 <sup>***</sup>|0.082 <sup>***</sup>|0.072 <sup>***</sup>|
||(0.045)|(0.051)|(0.048)|(0.050)|(0.005)|(0.006)|(0.007)|(0.006)|
|Estimate for 2007:|<sup>-0.154</sup><br>***|-0.146 <sup>***</sup>|-0.032|-0.137 <sup>***</sup>|<sup>0.019</sup><br>***|0.054 <sup>***</sup>|0.073 <sup>***</sup>|0.047 <sup>***</sup>|
||(0.042)|(0.043)|(0.039)|(0.040)|(0.006)|(0.009)|(0.009)|(0.008)|
|Estimate for 2008:|<sup>-0.091</sup><br>***|-0.059 <sup>**</sup>|0.022|-0.049 <sup>*</sup>|<sup>0.129</sup><br>***|0.159 <sup>***</sup>|0.155 <sup>***</sup>|0.150 <sup>***</sup>|
||(0.023)|(0.029)|(0.033)|(0.028)|(0.005)|(0.007)|(0.008)|(0.006)|
|Estimate for 2009:|<sup>-0.204</sup><br>***|-0.218 <sup>***</sup>|-0.156 <sup>***</sup>|-0.206 <sup>***</sup>|<sup>0.079</sup><br>***|0.105 <sup>***</sup>|0.101 <sup>***</sup>|0.100 <sup>***</sup>|
||(0.017)|(0.022)|(0.022)|(0.020)|(0.004)|(0.005)|(0.006)|(0.005)|
|Estimate for 2010:|<sup>-0.163</sup><br>***|-0.143 <sup>***</sup>|-0.066 <sup>**</sup>|-0.141 <sup>***</sup>|<sup>0.102</sup><br>***|0.110 <sup>***</sup>|0.111 <sup>***</sup>|0.108 <sup>***</sup>|
||(0.022)|(0.026)|(0.027)|(0.025)|(0.005)|(0.005)|(0.006)|(0.005)|