household with access to the Internet, number of household members, age of the household head, sex of the household head and years of education of the household head.<sup>13</sup> Initially, we assume all countries have the same four random slope variables. These variables are: 1) the household’s principal income from agriculture, 2) the presence of toilet facilities in the dwelling that are linked to the sewer, 3) access to electricity, and 4) access to water. We select these variables based on the assumption that natural hazards can particularly affect these dimensions. However, after performing LASSO and multilevel estimations, not all four variables are always included in each country's case. Depending on LASSO results and the significance of the varying-slope coefficients, all of them or a subset of them ended up being included in each country's model. Finally, all the community-level variables from household survey ( ) and climate change ( ) are included in each country’s income equation. On the other hand, the natural hazard and disaster variables ( ) selected ii ii ZZ II for the expected variance equations vary depending on the variability of the country's index. ii NN Table B2 in the Appendix details the variables used for each country estimation. Column (2), named Income Community-Level Covariates, refers to the eight community covariates variables and of the income equation of the model. Column (3), named Individual and HH characteristics at the ii ii ZZ II household level, refers to the household-specific variables characteristics i of the model chosen after LASSO and column (4) named Slope vars includes the variables that we assume have varying XX coefficients. Column (5), named Risk Community-Level Covariates, shows the community covariates variables of the expected variance equations of the model. Finally, the assessment is conducted at the household level using the most recent household survey NNii year available in each country, even though the estimations are based on the five rounds. The poverty rate and the vulnerability to poverty incidence are computed over households, not individuals. Henceforth, the main results will be presented as household incidence. To get the number of people involved in the analysis, we make some extra computations based on the number of members of each household. In the cases where the results pertain to individuals, we will explicitly specify it.

# **4 Results**

The vulnerability to poverty varies widely across countries, ranging from 2 percent in Chile to 64 percent in Guatemala when analyzing household incidence. Additionally, approximately one-third of the countries have a household incidence of vulnerability to poverty between 25 percent and 45 percent, and about half of the countries have an individual incidence in that range. The percentage of the population vulnerable to poverty ranges from 4 percent in Chile to 73 percent in Guatemala. In addition, the rates of vulnerability are fairly heterogenous within most countries. Table B3 in the Appendix presents all the vulnerability to poverty measures at the national level, further stratified by rural/urban areas and the country’s regions. Figure B2 shows the vulnerability to poverty incidence by state.

> 13 While it is possible to perform LASSO using many variables, we have limited the number of variables to the ones mentioned above to ensure the comparison between the countries. However, more household characteristics can be added if needed for a specific country study.

15