Table 5: Impacts by Timing of Loan Appraisal

|||**B**|**orrowing**||**Survival**|**Performance (**|**Main business)**|**I**|**nputs (Main business)**||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)<br>Borrowed|(2)<br>Borrowed from formal source|(3)<br>Borrowed from informal source|(4)<br>Total amount borrowed|(5)<br>Business was operating|(6)<br><br>Last year’s proft|(7)<br>Last year’s proft<br>|(8)<br>Value of owned equipment|(9)<br>Value of inventory stoc|(10)<br>k<br>Value of raw materials|
||in the past 3 years<br>(Yes 1; No 0)|in the past 3 years<br>(Yes 1; No 0)|in the past 3 years<br>(Yes 1; No 0)|(Conditional)<br>(IHS)|at endline<br>(Yes 1; No 0)|(Unconditional)<br>(IHS)|(Conditional)<br>(IHS)|(Unconditional)<br>(IHS)|(Unconditional)<br>(IHS)|(Unconditional)<br>(IHS)|
|Treatment (0/1)|0.129|0.335***|-0.185|0.543*|0.0734|-0.0883|-0.0496|0.589|-1.295|-1.310|
||(0.11)|(0.11)|(0.12)|(0.31)|(0.13)|(1.58)|(1.42)|(1.25)|(1.52)|(1.34)|
|Assessment was done after median date (0/1)|-0.183|-0.122|-0.0690|0.0611|0.117|-0.952|0.0745|-1.292|-0.922|-1.583|
||(0.12)|(0.12)|(0.12)|(0.56)|(0.12)|(1.59)|(1.38)|(1.36)|(1.45)|(1.28)|
|Interaction term between assessment date (0/1) and treatment|0.327**|0.277*|0.0271|0.147|0.158|3.367*|1.188|1.942|4.094**|1.085|
||(0.14)|(0.15)|(0.16)|(0.59)|(0.15)|(2.02)|(1.60)|(1.77)|(2.03)|(1.77)|
|**ANCOVA**|✓|✓|✓|✓|✗|✓|✓|✗|✗|✗|
|Observations|124|124|124|95|124|124|105|124|124|124|
|Control mean<br>|0.697|0.485|0.364|12.46|0.606|9.534|11.24|9.401|7.950|4.229|
|_R_<sup>2</sup>|0.17|0.30|0.054|0.090|0.12|0.073|0.029|0.082|0.063|0.031|
|Randomization inference p-value|0.043|0.082|0.87|0.81|0.32|0.12|0.46|0.28|0.049|0.54|
|Sharpened q-value|0.20|0.20|0.77|0.77|0.47|0.31|0.31|0.39|0.17|0.56|
|Treatment + Interaction p-value|0.01|0.01|0.15|0.21|0.01|0.02|0.35|0.06|0.05|0.86|

Notes: Assessments were done from April 2nd 2018 until March 3rd 2020, and the median assessment date used as a cut-off is December 15th 2018. Outcome 1 takes the value of 1 if respondent borrowed formally or informally and 0 otherwise. Outcome 2 takes the value of 1 if the respondent borrowed any money for their business from Banks, Micro-Finance Institutions (MFI), or Credit Unions. Outcome 3 takes the value of 1 if the respondent borrowed any money for their business from their spouse, friends and relatives, and informal savings groups. Outcome 4 includes both formal and informal borrowing amounts reported by the respondent, conditional on borrowing. Outcome 5 takes the value of 1 if business was operating at the time of the endline survey (September 2021). Outcomes 6-7 are self-reported total profits from the main business for the year 2013 in the Ethiopian calendar (which is 2020 in the Gregorian calendar). Outcome 8 is the self-reported value of business capital, where the respondent was asked to estimate the replacement value of all owned equipment and machinery for the main business. Outcome 9 is the self-reported value of inventory stock, where the respondent was asked to estimate the value of final goods for sale that they currently have in stock for their main business. Outcome 10 is the self-reported value of raw materials, where the respondent was asked to estimate the value of product components and raw materials for their main business. Conditional amounts represent only those whose businesses were open, whereas unconditional amounts include those not operating any business with a value of 0. Only Inverse Hyperbolic Sine (IHS) transformed versions of borrowing amounts, profits and business inputs are presented. Psychometric scores in the IE sample ranged from 370 to 452, and the median score used a cut-off is 383 (note that 370 was the qualifying score to receive an uncollateralized loan). Includes a control for number of children in the households that was imbalanced between treatment and control at baseline, as well as if the respondent was above or below the median psychometric score cut-off. Observations represent number of individuals. Robust standard errors are in parentheses. * _p <_ 0 _._ 05, ** _p <_ 0 _._ 01, *** _p <_ 0 _._ 001