60 Some countries in this region (such as Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, and Paraguay) have expressed a desire to attract immigrants, but they want to be selective in the type of person they admit. Usually immigrants with technical skills are most sought after. Policies with respect to illegal immigrants have varied substantially in response to the economic and political situation in the receiving countries, but it has not proven easy to control these flows. In fact, economic conditions themselves are usually a more powerful controlling factor than are policies and laws regarding illegal immigrants. In many countries in the region, the size of net international migration is fairly small. Moreover, for most countries there is reasonable agreement as to the approximate magnitude of net international migration. However, some major differences of opinion about current and future migration flows still exist. A few considerations about specific country estimates and projections are outlined below.

# Cuba

During tle Mariel exodus in the Spring of 1980 about 125,000 Cuban exiles arri-red in the United States (Pedraza-Bailey, 1985; Bach, Bach, and Triplett, 1-31). Aside from this massive influx, only a trickle of Cubans have entered _he United States since 1980. There is no information for 1981, but refugee arrivals averaged only 295 Cubans per year in fiscal years 1982-1987 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988). Large numbers of Cubans have continued to adjust to permanent resident status in the last few years but almost all of them entered the United States in 1980. For example, of the 26,927 Cuban refugees granted lawful permanent resident status in FY1987, 25,711 arrived in 1980 and only 449 arrived at any time after 1980 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988). Therefore, the fact that 72,334 Cuban immigrants were admitted to the United States in fiscal years 1985-1987 is deceiving since almost all of them arrived in 1980 or even earlier (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1988, 1987). Aside from refugees, a few persons who report Cuba as their country of last permanent -- residence have acquired immigrant status in the United States each year approximately 5,000 in fiscal years 1982-1984 and 3,000 in fiscal years 1985-1987 (Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1983-1987). Finally, a small number of Cuban immigrants have returned to Cuba in the last few years.

Given these considerations, it seems that the World Bank's proposed net emigration figure of 150,000 for Cuba in 1980-1985 is more reasonable than the 210,000 estimate of the United Nations, unless there are large numbers of Cubans emigrating to other countries. However, since there has been a very small number of new arrivals to the United States since 1980, I would think that the 1985-1990 estimates of both the World Bank (-100,000) and the United Nations (-90,000) are too high, unless there is a renewed exodus in the next two years. A more reasonable figure for the 1985-1990 period might be -50,000, which is the same as the World Bank's previous estimate made in 1984. The latest World Bank figures for 1990-2000 look reasonable, except that the figure for 1995-2000 might be raised to -40,000. If Cuba improves its relations with other countries in the region, as other Communist countries have been doing, then the exodus from Cuba might actually increase (or at