Worldwide Governance Indicators rated Comoros at the 1.4 percentile in terms of Government Effectiveness, meaning that it is placed among the worst in the world with a handful of other countries, and at the 16.0 percentile for rule of law. The Doing Business Economic Survey of 2012 rated Comoros as 157 out of 183 countries, while the Corruption Perception Index of 2011 rates Comoros towards the bottom of the list, at 143 out of 178 countries.

Political instability stems from two parts: the frequent coup d’etats and the strained relations between the national and island governments (a historical timeline is provided in Appendix 1). In the last 35 years, there have been over 20 coup d’etats or coup attempts, most famously two coup d’etats led by the French mercenary Bob Denard. However, a coup of the national government has not occurred since 1999, with two subsequent democratic transitions of power occurring in the last decade, for the first time in the history of Comoros.

The history of Comoros, and particularly the recent history, has been dominated by the issue of the relationship between the three islands, Anjouan, Moheli and Ngazidja.<sup>1</sup> The volatility that characterizes this recent history is consistent with findings in the literature on ethnicity, intranational conflict and civil wars, though the degree of violence is much less than that found in the neighborhood,<sup>2</sup> while the identity boundaries are not as strong.

There are several risk factors present in Comoros that render the country prone to rebellion, or even violent conflict, with a separatist objective: 1. Geographic distance including a body of water separating the territories as well as the relative remoteness to the center (Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Collier & Hoeffler, 2004; Trszinsky, 2004; Hegre & Sambanis, 2006); 2. A significant minority (in this case Anjouanais and Mohelians) and a significant majority – Ngazidjans – a population with strong and historic identities competing for power over state and resources (Collier & Hoefler, 2001)<sup>3</sup> ; 3. Possessing a sense of deprivation relative to power holders, which is often expressed by both the political leaders and the wider population in Anjouan and Moheli (Gurr, 1970); 4. Regional or colonial dynamics, for instance, the mixed relations with the former colonial power, France (Tryzcenski 2004); and 5. A history of previous episodes of rebellion or conflict (Doyle & Sambhanis, 2000; Walter, 2004). A charismatic leader can exploit these risk factors and thus escalate grievances into violent separatist demands, according to the literature, if a weak government is unable to put down rebellions (Feoran & Laitin, 2003; Collier & Sambhanis, 2006).

Anjouan announced its independence from Comoros twice in the last two decades, first in 1997 and then in 2007. These efforts at separation were instigated by elites in Anjouan, who were motivated by a set of grievances against the national government primarily related to resources, representation at the national level and the centralization of government services in the capital, Moroni. The separation of Anjouan in 1997 was soon followed by a military coup, eventually leading to the dictatorship of Mohammed Bacar in 2001; the island reintegrated with the Union in 2002 upon approval of the Constitution of 2001. The second major independence movement took place in 2007, arising from the insistence of Mohamed Bacar to remain in power despite Constitutional rules forcing him to leave office. Instead, after a military coup and an election alleged to be fraught with irregularities, Bacar once again declared the independence of Anjouan from the Union in 2007. The Union Government imposed sanctions against the island with the support of the African Union, eventually conducting a military invasion that successfully ousted Bacar from power in the following year.

In Moheli, an island rights movement reputedly began in 1990, again with grievances regarding resources, political representation in the national government and the centralization of government services in Moroni. This led to a declaration of independence from the Union even

> 1 For a historical account of these relations, see the National Human Development Report of 2010.

> 2 Despite the large number of coups and rebellions the level of human casualty had been relatively low in Comoros and pales in significance to the much larger number of casualties in the brutal wars in other African countries.

> 3 Where they stated that the likelihood of conflict escalation is higher if the majority community as a % of total population is in the range of 45 - 90%.

3