# **Table 8. Output Table of the Low Oil Price Scenario**

Table --.: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2001-2011 (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

|||**Proje**|**ctions**|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||2006|2007|2008|2009|2010|2011||
||||||||**Debt-stabilizing**|
|||**I Baseline**|**Projecti**|**ns**|||**rimar**|
|||**.**|||||**py**<br>**balance 17/**|
|**Public sector debt 1/**|-1.0|1.2|2.1|3.5|4.8|7.2|**-16.2**|
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (net)|-20.0|-17.2|-14.7|-11.2|-7.7|-4.4||
|o/w domestic debt (net) 3/|19.0|18.4|16.7|14.6|12.5|11.6||
|Change in public sector debt|1.2|2.2|0.9|1.4|1.3|2.4||
|Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+8+16)|1.2|2.2|0.9|1.4|1.3|2.4||
|Non-oil primary deficit|17.9|18.4|17.1|17.5|17.7|18.5||
|Revenue and grants|7.9|8.4|9.0|9.6|9.8|10.0||
|Primary (noninterest) expenditure<br>|25.8<br>|26.9<br>|26.1<br>|27.1<br>|27.5<br>|28.5<br>||
|Oil revenue at reference price 4/<br>Seignorage|-19.9<br>-0.7|-19.3<br>-0.6|-18.8<br>-0.5|-19.2<br>-0.5|-19.3<br>-0.4|-18.8<br>-0.4||
|Ai db di|05|11|08|07|05|04||
|utomatc et ynamcs:<br>Contribution from interest rate/growth differential|.<br>0.1|.<br>1.0|.<br>1.0|.<br>0.9|.<br>0.8|.<br>0.6||
|<br>Of which contribution from real interest rate|0.0|1.0|1.0|1.0|1.0|0.8||
|Contribution from domestic real interest rate 5/|0.3|0.9|1.0|1.0|1.0|0.8||
|Ctibti f l itt t fi dbt 6/|03|01|00|00|00|00||
|onruon rom rea neres rae on oregn e<br>Of which contribution from real GDP growth|-.<br>0.1|.<br>0.0|.<br>-0.1|.<br>-0.1|.<br>-0.2|.<br>-0.2||
|<br>Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation 7/|0.4|0.0|-0.1|-0.3|-0.3|-0.2||
|Contribution from net changes in the assets of the oil stabilization fund|3.4|2.6|2.2|3.0|2.9|2.6||
|Net inflow in the oil stabilization fund<br>|4.1<br>|3.1<br>|2.7<br>|3.4<br>|3.3<br>|2.9<br>||
|Contribution from real interest rate on oil assets 8/|-0.7|-0.6|-0.5|-0.4|-0.4|-0.3||
|Other identified debt-creating flows|00|00|00|00|00|00||
|<br>Privatization receipts (negative)|.<br>0.0|.<br>0.0|.<br>0.0|.<br>0.0|.<br>0.0|.<br>0.0||
|Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||
|<br>Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||
|Residual, including asset changes (2-3)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||
|Public sector debt-to-revenue ratio 1/|-12.6|14.1|22.7|36.2|49.0|72.2||
|Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio|16.7|16.3|16.2|16.1|16.3|16.2||
|Required deficit reduction|-9.2|-10.6|-9.9|-11.0|-11.2|-12.4||
|Low-Scenario oil prices US$/bbl|25.0|25.5|26.0|26.5|27.1|27.6||
|<br>Oil Reference Prices for Fiscal Rule US$/bbl|33.0|30.0|30.0|30.6|31.2|31.8||
|Oil stabilization fund net inflow, % of GDP|-4.1|-3.1|-2.7|-3.4|-3.3|-2.9||
|<br>Oil stabilization fund net assets|24.4|21.3|18.6|15.2|11.9|9.0||
|Non-Oil Primary Deficit, % of Non-Oil GDP|38.1|38.5|35.0|35.0|35.5|36.5||
|Gross Public Debt (In billions of US dollars)|18.4|17.9|17.5|17.3|17.3|17.5||
|(In percent of GDP)|16.8|15.4|14.3|13.7|13.1|13.0||
|**Gross financing** **need 9/**|31.5|43.4|51.2|59.9|67.1|76.5||
|in billions of U.S. dollars|34.5|50.3|62.3|75.3|88.5|103.5||
|**Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Assumptions**|||||||Projected<br>Average|
|Real Oil GDP growth (in percent)|5.1|5.1|5.4|4.0|4.0|4.0||
|<br>Real Non-Oil GDP growth (in percent)|7.0|5.3|5.4|5.5|5.5|5.5||
|<br>Real GDP growth (in percent)|6.1|5.2|5.4|4.8|4.8|4.8|5.2|
|Average nominal interest rate on public debt (in percent) 9/|6.3|9.6|10.5|10.2|9.7|9.7|9.3|
|<br>Average nominal interest rate on public domestic debt (in percent) 10/|16.8|11.9|11.4|10.8|10.1|10.1|11.9|
|Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) 10/<br>A il i A i 11/|1.0<br>|4.1<br>|3.7<br>|3.2<br>|2.6<br>|2.2<br>|2.8|
|verage nomna nterest rate on NF (n percent)<br>Average real interest rate (including exchange rate revaluation on foreign currency denominat|5.0<br>-2.5|5.0<br>4.0|5.0<br>5.2|5.0<br>6.0|5.0<br>6.7|5.0<br>6.7|4.3|
|<br>Average real interest rate on public domestic debt (nominal rate minus change in CPI, in perce|5.3|5.4|6.0|6.6|7.1|7.1|6.3|
|Average real interest rate on forex debt (nominal rate minus change in CPI, in percent)<br>Average real interest rate on NFA (nominal rate minus change in CPI, in percent)|-1.4<br>2.6|1.6<br>2.5|1.2<br>2.5|0.7<br>2.5|0.2<br>2.5|-0.3<br>2.5|0.3<br>2.5|
|Change in the real exchange rate (Local currency per US dollar) 13/|-4.9|-0.2|0.7|2.0|3.2|3.2|0.6|
|<br>Nominal appreciation (increase in US dollar value of local currency, in percent)<br>Inflation rate (in percent)|-3.4<br>11.5|-3.5<br>6.5|-3.5<br>5.5|-3.5<br>4.2|-3.5<br>3.0|-3.5<br>3.0|-3.5<br>5.6|
|<br>US Inflation rate (in ercent)|24|25|25|25|25|25|25|
|p<br>Growth of real primary spending (deflated by CPI, in percent)<br>Primar deficit|.<br>2.9<br>179|.<br>7.3<br>184|.<br>0.2<br>171|.<br>6.7<br>175|.<br>7.3<br>177|.<br>6.9<br>185|.<br>5.2<br>179|
|y<br>Base Money (percent of GDP)|.<br>5.66|.<br>5.63|.<br>5.55|.<br>5.55|.<br>5.55|.<br>5.55|.|

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