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# EUROPE

International migration statistics for Europe are better than those for most other regions, but they are still entirely inadequate for producing reliable estimates of net inte-.dtional migratior. A major problem is the lack of comparability of international migration statistics among countries in the region (Kelly, 1987). Although organizations such as SOPEMI (Systeme d'Observation Permanente sur les Migrations) and the Conference of European Statisticians have been working to improve the quality and comparability of international migration data, progress has been rather slow. The lack of comparability becomes painfully obvious when one examines the major differences in the matrices of migration among European countries as reported by the countries of immigration and the countries of emigration (Kelly, 1987). Nevertheless, the annual changes in these matrices do provide a reasonably accurate picture of changes in population movement from year to year in individual countries.

When European countries decided that they no longer needed so many foreign guestworkers in their economies, attempts were made in virtually every country to stem the flow of new workers and to repatriate large numbers of existing workers. In country after country, however, repatriation programs failed to have the desired effect. By and large, they were costly failures. While the number of foreign workers in Europe decreased by about 20 percent between 1973 and 1982, the number of foreign residents actually increased. Papademetriou (1988) attributes this anomaly to the "leakage into permanence" that inevitably accompanies guestworker programs throughout the world.

The last year or two has seen the imposition of more restrictive imigration legislation in many European countries (particularly w',th regard to refugees and asylees), but legal immigration has nevertheless been increasing in many countries. SOPEMI (1988:2) attributes the pattern of immigration increases in 1986 to "factors such as family reunification, admissions of refugees and of people seeking asylum and, in some instances, improving economic conditions." In the coming years immigration to Europe is unlikely to decrease much because there should be a strong demand for entry level workers which cannot be met from within each country. The baby bust in Europe may add to this demand, but the demand for labor will be largely generated by economic factors.

The future of international migration in Europe is difficult to predict since it depends so crucially on economic conditions. International migration within the European community will become even easier, but additional restrictions may well be put on immigration from outside the community. Public tolerance of immigration from certain countries may be tested due to social tensions, but if the economic situation continues to improve in many European countries the demand for workers will probably override emerging social concerns. Although these broad considerations may help to predict international migration trends in Europe in general, local conditions need to be assessed more carefully. Some relevant considerations for individual countries are outlined below.