# Contents

|**Introduction**.................................................................................................................................................. 4|
|---|
|**1**<br>**Updating pre-conflict poverty estimates**............................................................................................. 6|
|**2**<br>**Post-conflict poverty projections: Review of existing estimates**....................................................... 8|
|**2.1**<br>**Post-conflict estimates based on nowcasting methodologies**................................................... 8|
|**2.2**<br>**Post-conflict estimates based on HNAP 2021 Demographic and WASH survey**...................... 10|
|2.2.1<br>Measure of welfare used in HNAP analysis ........................................................................ 11|
|2.2.2<br>Poverty line used in HNAP analysis ..................................................................................... 13|
|**3**<br>**Poverty estimation using the HNAP 2022 Demographic and WASH Household Survey**................. 13|
|**3.1**<br>**Improvements to the survey’s expenditure module**................................................................ 14|
|**3.2**<br>**Monetary poverty estimates based on the HNAP 2022 Demographic and WASH survey**...... 15|
|**4**<br>**Nowcasting monetary poverty in Syria: Challenges and sensitivity analysis**................................... 19|
|**4.1**<br>**Data challenges**.......................................................................................................................... 19|
|4.1.1<br>Measuring “growth” ........................................................................................................... 19|
|4.1.2<br>Population estimates .......................................................................................................... 21|
|**4.2**<br>**Distribution neutral poverty projections: Sensitivity analysis**................................................. 22|
|**5**<br>**Triangulating poverty projections with available evidence**............................................................. 26|
|**6**<br>**Proposed way forward**....................................................................................................................... 28|
|**References**.................................................................................................................................................. 29|
|Annex 1: Post-Conflict Poverty Estimation Studies in Syria ........................................................................ 31|
|Annex 2: The Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme (HNAP) ........................................................ 33|
|Annex 3: Geospatial population estimates for Syria................................................................................... 36|
|Annex 4: Distribution neutral poverty projections using private per capita consumption from NA ......... 38|
|Annex 5: Distribution neutral poverty projections using GDP per capita, and poverty lines at 2011 PPP . 41|
|Figure 1: FCV Pass-through rate for Syria 2009-2020 ................................................................................... 9|
|Figure 2: Share of population in extreme poverty, by subdistrict (HNAP extreme poverty definition) ..... 11|
|Figure 3: Contribution to total household monetary income, by source ................................................... 12|
|Figure 4: Average household income and share of households reporting income sufficiency, by|
|governorate ................................................................................................................................................ 12|
|Figure 5: Distribution of monthly per capita expenditure, nominal and spatially adjusted ....................... 17|
|Figure 6: Distribution by governorate and quintiles of spatially adjusted and nominal monthly per capita<br>expenditure ................................................................................................................................................. 17|
|Figure 7: Governorate level poverty estimates based on nominal and spatially adjusted welfare ........... 18|
|Figure 8: Poverty estimates based on HNAP 2022 data, nominal aggregate ............................................. 18|
|Figure 9: GDP deflator and CPI growth index (2003=100) .......................................................................... 21|
|Figure 10: Population estimates for Syria ................................................................................................... 22|
|Figure 11: Sensitivity Analysis of Poverty Projections at LIC extreme poverty line ($2.15, 2017 PPP) ...... 23|
|Figure 12: Sensitivity Analysis of Poverty at LMIC international poverty line ($3.65, 2017 PPP)............... 23|