ERADICATING POVERTY IN FRAGILE STATES: PROSPECTS OF REACHING THE “HIGH-HANGING” FRUIT BY 2030

# CONTENTS

|1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................. 3|
|---|
|1.1 Definitions .......................................................................................................................................................................... 3|
|2. On Fragile States ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4|
|2.1 Poverty and Development in Fragile States ....................................................................................................................... 4|
|2.1 Diversity of Poverty in Fragile States ................................................................................................................................. 5|
|3. World Poverty Forecasts – Comparing International Futures to Other Findings .................................................................... 6|
|3.1 The Basis of Initial Poverty Estimates ................................................................................................................................ 6|
|3.2 Comparative Forecasting Methodologies .......................................................................................................................... 7|
|3.3 Global Poverty Forecasts: Baseline and Alternative Scenarios ......................................................................................... 7|
|3.4 Fragile States Poverty Forecasts ...................................................................................................................................... 12|
|4. Alternative Scenarios for Poverty in Fragile States: Growth and Shared Prosperity ............................................................. 13|
|4.1 Rationale .......................................................................................................................................................................... 13|
|4.2 Method ............................................................................................................................................................................ 14|
|4.3 Results .............................................................................................................................................................................. 14|
|5. Target Points for Action in Fragile States: Institutions, Conflict, and Policies ....................................................................... 16|
|5.1 Rationale .......................................................................................................................................................................... 16|
|5.2 Method ............................................................................................................................................................................ 16|
|5.3 Results .............................................................................................................................................................................. 18|
|5.4 Improved Institutions and Security Extended (IISE) ........................................................................................................ 19|
|6. Concluding Remarks .............................................................................................................................................................. 21|
|6.1 Remarks on the 3% Poverty Target .................................................................................................................................. 21|
|6.2 Areas of Additional Research ........................................................................................................................................... 22|
|6.3 Summary of Poverty Reduction Possibilities in Fragile States ......................................................................................... 22|
|6.4 Concluding Remarks ........................................................................................................................................................ 23|
|Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................................................... 25|
|Technical Appendix .................................................................................................................................................................... 27|
|1. Poverty Forecasting in the International Futures (IFs) Model ........................................................................................... 27|
|2. Historical Fragile and Conflict-Affected States Lists........................................................................................................... 28|
|3. Comparison of Economic Growth Rates: IFs, WDI, and WEO ............................................................................................ 30|
|4. Specifications of Scenario Parameters for Growth and Shared Prosperity ....................................................................... 31|

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