The marginal effects (table 7) show that a one unit marginal increase in per capita GDP growth is significantly and inversely related to the probability of a country being far from target in all MDGs excluding primary completion and gender parity in secondary education. Conversely, a one unit increase in GDP per capita growth significantly raises the probability of a country being on target by at least 0.05, holding other variables at their mean, for primary completion, gender parity in secondary education, and access to safe water and sanitation. In addition, CPIA scores appear to have significant marginal effects, at average values, on the probabilities of being on target (positive signs) and/or far from target (negative signs) for several health-related MDGs (hunger, child mortality and maternal mortality). For several development goals, the predicted probability of a country being close to target is significantly and inversely related to changes in per capita growth and the CPIA index ( that is, higher growth may reduce the probability of being close to the target). This does not imply that high growth is correlated with poor performance. Rather, countries with relatively high growth may be on track to meeting the goals, instead of off-track but close to the target.

**Table 7. Multinomial logit estimates: marginal effects (baseline representation)**

||**MDG.1a**|**MDG.1c**|**MDG.2a**|**MDG.3a**<br>**(primary)**|**MDG.3a**<br>**(secondary)**|**MDG.4a**|**MDG.5a**|**MDG.7a**<br>**(water)**|**MDG.7a**<br>**(sanitation)**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|**On**<br>**target**<br>**Close**<br>**to**<br>**target**<br>**Far**<br>**from**<br>**target**|
|**Change in predicted**<br>**probabilities following**<br>**a one unit increase in**<br>**GDP per capita growth**|0.04<br>-0.01 **-0.04**|0.05<br>0.01<br>**-0.06**|**0.13**<br>**-0.13**<br>0.00|-0.02<br>0.03<br>**-0.01**|**0.10**<br>**-0.10**<br>0.00|0.06<br>0.01<br>**-0.08**|0.04<br>0.02<br>**-0.06**|**0.05**<br>-0.02 **-0.03**|**0.05**<br>0.03<br>**-0.08**|
|**Change in predicted**||||||||||
|<br>**probabilities following**<br>**a one unit increase in**<br>**CPIA score**|’<br>-0.03<br>0.07<br>-0.03|<br>**0.50**<br>**-0.22 -0.28**|0.07<br>-0.07<br>0.00|0.05<br>-0.03 -0.02|0.05<br>-0.05<br>0.00|**0.17**<br>0.13<br>**-0.30**|0.09<br>**0.15**<br>**-0.24**|0.02<br>**-0.22**<br>0.16|0.02<br>0.12<br>-0.14|

_Source:_ Authors’ calculations.

_Notes:_ Predicted probabilities and changes in predicted probabilities for each category are computed at average sample values. Results are not comparable across indicators. Bold figures denote significant changes at 0.10 level or better.

Consequently, based on the average pattern thus far and at the aggregate level, growth might have a broader impact on attaining MDGs than the quality of policy and institutions. This is likely because growth has a more immediate effect and can be generated from several sources, including better policy as well as beneficial exogenous shocks and flows in the global economic environment. By contrast, policy improvements as defined by the CPIA cover myriad areas and interventions that need a longer time to come through. In any case, given the short time left until 2015, the statistical results confirm the centrality of growth in improving countries’ odds of achieving the MDGs.

**_How much will higher growth and better policy improve the likelihood of better MDG results?_** We consider an increase of one standard deviation in growth and in the quality of policy institutional assessment equivalent to about 1.8 percentage points in added growth and to the CPIA index rising by 0.5 points.

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