46 Alternative migration scenarios included in a set of five population projections completed by Poot, Nana, and Philpott (1988) range between -15,000 and +15,000 annually from 1989 to 2000, with the three middle scenarios being identical with the ones that will be used by the Department of Statistics. They state that net migration of zero for that period is the most likely official scenario. They also point out that less restrictive immigration controls announced in 1986 are already having an effect. A net outflow in the period ending March 1986 was followed by a net inflow in the year ending March 1987. Experts feel that there will probably be some inflow between 1985 and 2000 but that its magnitude should be small (fewer than 5,000 persons per year).

New Zealand Recommendations. The latest set of United Nations projections assumes that there was a net inflow of 30,000 persons in 1980-1985 and that there will be a slightly smaller net inflow of 25,000 for each fiveyear period through the year 2000. The previous World Bank assumptions are as follows: -25,000 for 1980-1985 and 1985-1990, -20,000 for 1990-1995, and -10,000 for 1995-2000. While either set of figures is plausible for future levels of net migration, I would propose a net level of zero for the years 1985-1990, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000. Given the turnaround to a positive net migration in 1986 and early 1987, a negative figure for the entire five-year period (1985-1990) seems less plausible than it did previously. It also makes it less likely that there will be net emigration in 1990-2000. For 1980-1985, the previous World Bank assumption of -25,000 (split about equally between males and females) is quite reasonable, although a smaller level of net emigration could also be argued for.

# ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

With more than half of the world's population, Asia has become one of the most dynamic areas in the world with regard to international migration. Emigration is common in many Third World countries in Asia and few countries have laws that restrict their citizens from leaving the country permanently. In recent years, Asia has become the dominant source region for immigrants to Canada, Australia, and the United States. Labor migration within Asia has also been picking up and illegal immigration is a very significant factor in several Asian countries. Unfortunately, Asian data on international migration are incomplete or non-existent throughout much of the region. Moreover, it is often difficult to determine when a move across national boundaries is permanent or temporary.

The Asian and Pacific region is plagued with political problems and ethnic disputes that will continue to affect international migration for the rest of the century. Some of the relevant political factors are: (1) moves toward democracy in the Philippines and in South Korea, (2) the removal of Russian troops from Afghanistan, (3) the impending return to China of Hong Kong in 1997 and Macao in 1999, (4) steps toward rapprochement between North and South Korea, (5) suppression of the democracy movement in China and restrictions on foreign travel, (6) the worsening political situation in Tibet, (7) ethnic problems between native Fijians and Indians in Fiji, (8) similar ethnic disputes in New Caledonia, (9) fighting between Tamils and