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**Box 3 Egypt's Largest Three-Digit Global Exports: 1970-72, 1980-82 and 1990-92**

As was the case with all regional countries as a group, major changes have occurred in the structure of Egyptian exports over the last two decades. The following statistics based on 1970-72, 198082 and 1990-92 exports (three year averages were used to reduce the importance of any irregularities that might occur in a single year), show how the shares of major three-digit SITC export products have changed. Altogether, the 20 items listed below now account for approximately 85 percent of Egypt's total exports and have accounted for as much as 95 percent in 1980-82. An important point to note is that these data understate the true importance of petroleum (by about $1 to $1.5 billion) due to Egypt's unusual practice of not reporting produced and exported by foreign firms in its official export statistics.

||Valu|e of Exports (|$000)|Percent|of Total Exp|orts (%)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Description (SITC)|1970-72|1980-82|1990-92|1970-72|1980-82|1990-92|
|Crude Petroleum (331)|29.267|1,750,025|1,111,555|3.7|55.9|35.8|
|Textile Yarn and Thread (651)|88,106|159,023|317,069|11.1|5.1|10.2|
|Petroleum Products (332)|2,527|284,602|190,409|0.3|9.1|6.1|
|Aluminum (684)|227|90,397|185,127||2.9|6.0|
|Nonfur Clothing (841)|14,094|19,415|160,855|1.8|0.6|5.2|
|Cotton (263)|376,354|446,766|107,443|47.5|14.3|3.5|
|Cotton Fabrics (652)|40,881|36,334|88,505|5.2|1.2|2.8|
|Fresh Vegetables (054)|25,605|57,158|80,340|3.2|1.8|2.6|
|Fresh Fruit and Nuts Dry (051)|16,715|52,179|56,163|2.1|1.7|1.8|
|Natural Gas (341)|4|0|45,764||0.0|1.5|
|Furniture (821)|6,296|2,669|41,035|0.8|0.1|1.3|
|Rice (042)|61,887|29,811|38,806|7.8|1.0|1.2|
|Textile Products nes (656)|6,208|7,658|36,682|0.8|0.2|1.2|
|Perfumes and Cosmetics (553)|4,247|4,591|28,414|0.5|0.1|0.9|
|Crude Vegetable Materials (292)|2,438|11,140|27,730|0.3|0.4|0.9|
|Floor Coverings (657)|5,044|6,192|27,647|0.6|0.2|0.9|
|Iron and Steel Shapes (673)|225|121|25,219|||0.8|
|Chemicals nes (599)|182|266|22,535|||0.7|
|Manufactured Fertilizers (561)|1,786|838|21,546|0.2||0.7|
|Medicinal Products (541)|_2,051_|6,298|20,519|0.3|0.2|0.7|
|TOTAL OF ALL ABOVE ITEMS|684,144|2,965,483|2,633,263|86.2|94.8|84.8|

Perhaps the two most striking statistics relate to crude petroleum (even with the under-reporting problem) and cotton. Petroleunm' **s** hare in total exports rose almost ten-fold over 1970-72 to 1990-92 and now accounits for almost 36 percent of all expc:.ts (41 9 percent if refined petroleum products are also included. The importance of this observation is that crude petroleum generally faces no, or very limited, OECD trade barriers so a large share of Egyptian exports would not be affected by either OECD integration efforts or the Uruguay Round.- However, the textile and clothing products that are among Egypt's major exports will certainly be affected by the MFA phase-out. _Whether this is a positive or negative development will depend on Egypt's ability to compete on even terms with other developing countries._ 'Exception are those products for which Egypt does not receive important GSP preferences and to which high MFN tariffs are applied. In North America. textiles, clothing and footwear do not receive either GSP or Caribbean Basin Initiative preferences so the potential for a sizeable NAFTA induced displacement may exist. However, Safadi and Yeats (1994) and Primo Braga, Safadi and Yeats (1994) show that Mexico appears to have important supply constraints that should limit its capacity to displace third couLltry exports to the United States.