rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
over the next few years. Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic will together generate more than 7 million job openings between 2006 and 2015.

Figure 3 plots job openings for the five EU members with the highest demand for specific occupations. Most of the demand is concentrated in technical/professional occupations, services and elementary (unskilled) activities. Denmark, for example, is expected to have over 1.7 million job openings for technicians, second only to Italy. Similarly, Poland will have over 1 million job openings for professionals and another 1 million openings in craft related trades by 2015.

# **Figure 3**

## **Total Job Openings by Country 2006-15**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 2500<br>2000<br>1500<br>1000<br>500<br>0<br>Legislators, Professionals Technicians Clerks Sevices Skilled Craft and Plant machine Elementary<br>senior officials and associate workers agriculture related operators occupations<br>and managers professionals and fishery trades<br>Thousands<br>UK ItalyFrance Denmark Poland UK GermanyPoland ItalyNetherlands ItalyDenmark France SpainUK ItalyUK Netherlands France Germany GermanyUK SpainItalyFrance PortugalUK Austria Greece Sweden GermanyPoland UK France Italy UK GermanyFrance Poland Czeck GermanyFrance SpainUK Italy<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source_ : Ozden, Sewadeh and Wahba (2009)

# **_Compelling benefits for both sides_**

The current demographic trends in the EU and future labor shortages will make migration an economic necessity for EU. Moreover, the demographic transformation will place significant pressures on social programs in member countries. Admitting more migrant workers would help alleviate the pressure on these services at least in the short term. In addition, the 60+ age group, which will grow to 28% of the population in 2020, will be 6
While looking at whether intervention in FOREX markets can generate more persistent deviations in terms of magnitude, our _Tobit_ analysis fails to show significant results. This paper finds that FOREX intervention may affect the persistence of the likelihood of undervaluation rather than the magnitude itself. Overall the coefficient estimates from _Tobit_ estimates are relatively negligible compared with _Probit_ results.

This paper consists of the following sections: Section 2 explains the data used in the empirical work. Section 3 describes the econometric methodology applied to evaluate the determinants of the incidence and size of real exchange rate misalignments ( _Probit_ and _Tobit_ analysis, respectively) whereas Section 4 analyzes the results from our _Probit_ and _Tobit_ analysis. Section 5 concludes.

# **2. The Data**

This section provides the description and sources of the data used in our empirical analysis. We follow Kubota (2009)<sup>3</sup> to define and generate the data on real exchange rate misalignment, and RER misalignments are defined as deviations of the actual RER from its equilibrium level. First, we describe the data sources on the determinants of the real exchange rate as suggested by the model in Kubota (2009). Then we gather annual information for a sample of 79 countries over the period 19712005 and for a wide array of factors such as exchange rate regimes, capital controls, foreign exchange intervention, trade and financial openness, liability dollarization and central government balance. Finally, we calculate the RER misalignment using two different types of estimates for the coefficients of the long-run RER equation: (a) Johansen time series cointegration estimates, and (b) PMG estimates for nonstationary panel data.

## **2.1. The Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate**

In order to define the dependent variable in the analysis of the likelihood and sustainability of RER undervaluations, we first need to define the _real exchange rate misalignment_ as the deviation of the actual RER from its equilibrium value. Following Kubota (2009) we compute the equilibrium RER by first regressing the

> 3This working paper is based on the author’s Ph.D. thesis.

7
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- Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., & Hornbeck, R. (2018). How much do existing borrowers value microfinance? evidence from an experiment on bundling microcredit and insurance. _Economica_ , 85(340), 671–700.

- Banerjee, A., Karlan, D., & Zinman, J. (2015b). Six randomized evaluations of microcredit: Introduction and further steps. _American Economic Journal: Applied Economics_ , 7(1), 1–21.

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40
Policy Research Working Paper 9932

# **Abstract**

Pandemic shocks disrupt human capital accumulation through schooling and work experience. This study quantifies the long-term economic impact of these disruptions in the case of COVID-19, focusing on countries at different levels of development and using returns to education and experience by college status that are globally estimated using 1,084 household surveys across 145 countries. The results show that both lost schooling and experience contribute to significant losses in global learning and output. Developed countries incur greater losses than developing countries, because they have more schooling to start with and higher returns to experience. The returns to education and experience are also separately estimated for men and women, to explore the differential effects by gender of the COVID-19 pandemic. Surprisingly, while the study uncovers gender differences in returns to education and schooling, gender differences in the impact of COVID-19 are small and short-lived, with a loss in female relative income of only 2.5 percent or less, mainly due to the greater severity of the employment shock on impact. These findings might challenge some of the ongoing narratives in policy circles. The methodology employed in this study is easily implementable for future pandemics.

This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at aislam@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
0 Table 2: Pulation Growth and its Distribution, 1963-1980

||||||Average|Annual Gr|owth (%)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||1963|1969|1974|1980|63-69|69-74|69-80|
|Total<br>Rural|2774484|2864879|3014000|3239389|0.5|1.0|1.1|
|Total Urban|715020|<br>1192116|1663000|2440419|8.9|6.9|6.7|
|of which- Lusaka<br>|123146<br>|<br>262425<br> <br>|<br>401000<br> <br>|538469<br>|13.4|8.9|6.8|
|Kitwe<br>|123027<br>|<br>199798<br>|<br>251000<br> <br>|314794<br>|8.4|4.6|4.2|
|Ndola|92691|159786|<br>229000|282439|9.5|7.4|5.3|
|Total Zambia|3490170|4056995|4677000|5679808|2.5|2.9|3.1|
|Percentage Urban(%)|20.5|29.4|35.6|43.0||||

Sources: Population Census Results from each of the years shown
payoff in terms of reducing the shock impact (by 1.5 percentage points). At low levels of firm entry flexibility, improving financial depth also contributes significantly to reduce the impact of shock but by less than half of the effect under flexible firm entry.

Whereas for trade openness, financial integration, and firm entry, there emerges a pattern of complementarity with financial depth; the case of labor market flexibility appears to be one of substitution. Improving financial depth has an attenuating effect on the shock’s impact when labor markets are rather rigid (by a significant 0.62 percentage points). Improving financial depth has no effect when labor markets are flexible.

# **5. Concluding Remarks**

What underlies a country’s vulnerability to external shocks? Why do some countries suffer so much in the face of terms-of-trade shocks while others remain unscathed? With these questions in mind, in this paper we examine how certain domestic characteristics influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. The paper has an empirical objective but is motivated by the recent literature that emphasizes the role of product- and factor-market rigidities as the source of macroeconomic vulnerability.

The paper applies an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 19742000. Using this methodology, the paper identifies and standardizes the terms-of-trade shocks affecting these countries, estimates their impact on (detrended) GDP per capita, and examines how this impact depends on the countries’ trade and financial openness, domestic financial depth, and labor and firm-entry flexibility.

Our basic results indicate that the two most important country characteristics affecting the shocks’ output impact are trade openness and labor market flexibility, the former magnifying the impact and the latter reducing it. Financial openness also shows a significant stabilizing effect, but weaker in magnitude. Financial depth and ease of firm entry do not seem to affect the shocks’ impact significantly in the basic specification. These results are robust to using a longer lag structure for the VARs, concentrating exclusively on developing countries, substituting initial for average financial depth, 17
Table 11 Asset portfolio prior to disaster

|<br>|<br>Max edu|Bangladesh Ethiopia<br>Max edu Cattle Cattle Max edu Max edu Cattle|Malawi<br>Cattle Max edu Max edu Cattle Cattle|
|---|---|---|---|
|Disaster probability<br>|28.54<br>|20650.8 1.183 -17157.4<br>|-19.10 100788.7<br>|
||(1.76)|(0.58) (0.07) (3.38)|(3.28) (1.10)|
|Squared probability<br>|-172.55<br>|-26499.9 -11.20 45430.8<br>|40.08 -183276.6<br>|
||(1.50)|(0.14) (0.17) (1.93)|(3.35) (0.93)|
|Land<br>|0.019<br>|0.0134 66.21 57.99 0.3508 0.3650 1026.9<br>|1361.1 -0.079 205023 8953.3 7492.4<br>|
||(3.76)|(4.49) (2.93) (3.71) (1.67) (3.23) (4.35)|(5.55) (0.68) (2.00) (2.62) (2.82)|
|Land * disaster probability<br>|-0.267<br>|-0.134 -875.10 -711.15 -0.775 1.170 -7060.6<br>|-12979.2 1.781 -1.323 -70400.7 -55855.5<br>|
||(2.13)|(1.82) (1.66) (1.95) (0.38) (0.10) (0.89)|(1.97) (1.11) (1.19) (1.85) (1.91)|
|Land * squared probability<br>|1.633<br>|0.908 3061.12 2408.45 -7.730 -17.39 25910.3<br>|40762.7 -1.471 5.382 139949.3 112502<br>|
||(1.51)|(1.86) (1.28) (1.14) (0.69) (0.39) (0.89)|(1.83) (0.35) (2.12) (1.49) (1.53)|
|Number of observations|603|603 602 602 1361 1361 1376|1376 636 636 664 664|
|Number of thana|7|7 7 7||
|Number of regions<br>|<br>|4 4 4<br>|4 4 4 4 4<br>|
|R squared (within)|0.1721|0.1666 0.2516 0.2462 0.0464 0.0438 0.1691|0.1575 0.0559 0.0422 0.2105 0.2003|

Numbers in parentheses are t value using robust standard errors with thana clusters (Bangladesh) and region clusters (Ethiopia and Malawi). Disaster probability is the village average of the household-level probability estimates (see Table 1). In Ethiopia, regions are redefined.

33
8 Because trading-book exposures are taken with a view to resale or short-term profit, rather than to holding the securities until maturity, the assets are treated as short-term and valued on a mark-to-market basis - the current price at which they could be sold in the market.

Though it is widely agreed that the risks for end users or dealers involved in derivative activities are not new, derivatives business has two special attributes which distinguish it from more conventional financial activity<sup>15</sup> : increased complexity and rapid risk transformation. The result is reduced transparency of financial markets and an inability to correctly assess the risks of a financial institution. The concerns here are that firstly, trading desk activities may lead to rapid changes in bank capital because of the potential volatility of the trading portfolio's value; and secondly, the failure of large banks involved in derivatives may have systemic implications. In effect, the heavy social costs associated with bank failures are carried over into the securities markets. Globalization, by increasing the potential for transmission of cross-border financial contagion, has expanded those risks. This has been a primary motivation for the explicit introduction of market risk into risk-based capital adequacy standards.

# 11.3. Alternative Approaches to Market Risk Capital Standards

There are three main regulatory approaches to the measurement of, and the capital provisions for, market risk<sup>16</sup> '<sup>7</sup> . The first one, which is the Building Blocs Approach (BBA), consists of a single model to be applied to all banks. It is a set of rules that assigns risk charges to specific instruments and crudely accounts for selected portfolio underlying contract on which a derivative instrument is based. This is a misleading indicator of the size of derivatives transactions because most cash flows arising from such transactions are small compared with notional principal. The latter is useful, though, as a crude measure of the relative importance of one type of derivative compared with another, or as a measure of the growth in activity for one instrument.

## **15** See Dale (January 1995).

**16** Other approaches for setting position (market) risk requirements, such as the US SEC's Comprehensive Approach and the UK Simplified Portfolio Approach are not discussed here, primarily because they apply to securities firms only. See Dimson and Marsh (July 1995).

17 The following description is based on Kupiec and O'Brien (December 1995).
declarations were deemed fraudulent and the amount of taxes recovered (if any). These variables are unique and crucial for our definition of inspector actions that may potentially respond to the provision of information and the monitoring. Third, we obtained information from the RMU on the qualitative comments made to each import declaration. For the declarations lodged during the period of the RCT whereby improvements to the qualitative comments were the treatment, we use text analysis methods to extract several characteristics of those comments, including their length, the presence of prices, of weights, and the reference to prior transactions, as will be further described in Section 5 and in the Appendix.

# **Risk scores, valuation advices and scanning results**

We obtained from the service provider GasyNet additional information that we merge to the ASYCUDA data on the risk score assigned to each declaration (related to the risk of noncompliance with customs regulations ranging from 1 to 9), the recommendation of an inspection channel (documentary control, physical frontline inspection, or no inspection), and whether a declaration was subject to a scanner exam. Most importantly, and as discussed in Section 2, the service provider also issues valuation advices. Since this service is costly given that it requires additional research, valuation advices are carried out for only a subset of declarations, about 6 percent of the total per year, with the selection made by the service provider and the customs administration based on risk criteria. To our knowledge, ours is the first study with access to this type of risk and third-party valuation information. Further discussion on these valuation advices is provided in Section 4.

Madagascar’s raw customs data cover the universe of Madagascar’s formal import transactions, that is, imports made under five regimes: final imports for consumption (imports for home use), re-imports, temporary admissions, inward processing, warehouse, and other. Our sample for the econometric analysis includes only import declarations that are subject to taxation and to a physical or documentary control by customs frontline inspectors. This implies focusing only on imports for home use (customs regime IM4) and excluding declarations from importers that are members of the “ _Procédure Accélérée de Dédouanement_ ” (PAD), a trusted trader program that allows member firms to benefit from expedited clearance procedures with minimal controls at the border.<sup>19</sup> We

> 19 Only a very small share of declarations registered by PAD members are selected for random documentary or physical controls.

14
Policy Research Working Paper 6806

# **Abstract**

Across the developing world, public goods exert significant impacts on the local rural economy in general and agricultural productivity and welfare outcomes in particular. Economic and social-cultural heterogeneity have, however, long been documented as detrimental to collective capacity to provide public goods. In particular, women are often under-represented in local leadership and decision-making processes, as are young adults and minority ethnic groups. While democratic principles dictate that broad civic engagement by women and other groups could improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governance and increase public goods provision, the empirical evidence on these hypotheses is scant. This paper develops a theoretical model highlighting the complexity of constructing a “fair” schedule of individual contributions, given heterogeneity in costs and benefits that accrue to people depending, for instance, on their gender, age, ethnicity, and education.

The model demonstrates that representative leadership and broad participation in community organizations can mitigate the negative impacts of heterogeneity on collective capacity to provide public goods. Nationally-representative household survey data from Malawi, combined with geospatial and administrative information, are used to test this hypothesis and estimate the relationship between collective capacity for public goods provision and community median estimates of maize yields and household consumption expenditures per capita. The analysis shows that similarities between the leadership and the general population, in terms of gender and age, and active participation by women and young adults in community groups alleviate the negative effects of heterogeneity and increase collective capacity, which in turn improves agricultural productivity and welfare.

This paper is a product of the Poverty and Inequality Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at tkilic@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team