rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
On potential mechanisms through which electricity shortages affect employment, I document two key findings. First electricity shortages reduce the entry of new firms through a reduction firm density and FDI. Evidence from the Ethiopian firm census data shows that areas with high prevalence of outages have lower number of manufacturing firms operating. Incumbent firms also operate for lower durations during the year, as outages force them to operate below optimal capacity and sometimes shut down production plants during periods of outages. Further, results from a synthetic control method (SCM) estimation of the effect of the “Dumsor” power crisis in Ghana suggest that between 2013 and 2016 (during the crisis), the number of FDI projects to the non-energyand-construction sectors in the country declined by about 12.3% per annum. High cost of business and the unfavorable macroeconomic shocks induced the crisis are doing by possible reasons for the slump in FDI. As a result, businesses that would have otherwise create jobs were lost.

Secondly, the paper shows that outages also affect the performance of incumbent firms. The results show a negative effect of outages on firm revenue and productivity: for every percent increase in the frequency of outages experienced by firms, sales, sales per worker and value-added per worker decline by 1.2%, 1.3% and 2.3% respectively. Further, I find a negative effect of outages on labor demand, particularly, temporary workers. A percent increase in outage frequency (duration) is associated with a 0.58% (0.32%) reduction in the number of temporary workers hired by firms. The effect on demand for full time workers is also negative albeit statistically insignificant. In addition, the results show a negative and significant effect of outages on total labor cost and labor cost per worker. This provides suggestive evidence that firms perhaps respond to the declining revenue as a result of outages by reducing wages. Overall, the findings of the paper suggest that the negative of outages on firm entry and performance of incumbent firms are plausible channels through which outages affect employment.

This paper offers two main contributions to the literature. First, to the best of my knowl5
<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 2.9. Base poverty rate in 2012 and by Gini values in 2030<br>70<br>60<br>50<br>40<br>%<br>30<br>20<br>10<br>0<br>2012 2030(Gini=0.53) 2030 (Gini=0.41)<br><!-- End of picture text --> 20
lack proper data collection methods for food eaten outside home. In a recent analysis of household surveys globally, 90 percent of the surveys asked about food eaten away from home, but few had any additional follow-up questions (Smith et al., 2014). Only 23 percent of the surveys in the study collected expenditure data on food away from home, and 17 percent collected data of meals eaten outside of home at the individual level. This becomes an increasingly significant issue as countries develop and a larger share of food is consumed outside the home.

# _Non-food, non-durable items_

Most countries include non-food, non-durable items, but the number of items included varies from country to country. Sri Lanka includes just 47 items, while Bhutan, Nepal, and Pakistan include between 50 and 85 items. On the other hand, Bangladesh and India include over 190 items, and Maldives lists 401 items.

# _Consumer durables_

When it comes to consumer durable goods, Pakistan and the Maldives do not include them in the consumption aggregate, but the rest of the countries do. In Afghanistan and Nepal, the monthly value of the consumption of durables is imputed, following recommended practice (Deaton and Zaidi, 2002). In Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Sri Lanka, however, only the previous year’s expenditures on consumer durables is included.

# _Housing expenditures_

All countries include actual rent for urban and rural areas, except for India and Maldives. India, along with the Maldives, does not include imputed rent for homeowners. The India NSS asks urban home-owners to estimate rent, but not rural home-owners. Although the NSS collects imputed rent from urban dwellers, this is not included in the consumption aggregate of urban dwellers.

# _Health and education expenditures_

All countries have an estimate of health expenditures included in the national consumption aggregate, except for Nepal and Afghanistan. All countries include education expenditures in their national aggregate.

# 4. **Spatial deflation to account for cost-of-living differences and inter-temporal deflation**

# _<mark>Spatial deflation of national consumption aggregates to account for cost-of-living differences</mark>_

Spatial deflation is an important requirement to properly assess the number of poor adjusting for cost of living differences across geographical areas so that poverty is not overstated in low-cost areas. For example, prices are generally higher in urban areas compared to rural areas, meaning that an urban household would need to spend more to maintain the same standard of living as that 11
a head who worked as child. Lastly, we denote a weak (perhaps zero or negative) stigma towards child labor if a child is not indigenous and has a head who did not work as a child.

<Insert Table 3 around here> The predicted probabilities are estimated by assuming that all households have the same (mean) child- and household-level characteristics except being indigenous and a household head’s past child labor experiences. A child in a household with strong positive stigma towards child labor has a 0.07 probability of combining work and schooling; this figure is higher than the 0.03 to 0.05 probability range found in a household with medium stigma, and higher than the 0.02 probability found in households with weak stigma. As expected, households with strong positive stigma have are less likely to choose schooling only, work only, and idle than households with lower levels of stigma.

# **4. Conclusion**

We introduced a simple empirical model that assumes a positive stigma towards child labor, and provided an illustration using data from Guatemala. Our approach suggests that increasing schooling options or improvements in socioeconomic status may be insufficient to eliminate child labor in households with a positive stigma for child labor. Therefore, welfare programs that provide cash payments in exchange for children’s regular attendance at school such as Mexico’s _Oportunidades_ (formerly PROGRESA), and other programs in Brazil, Honduras, Nicaragua are likely to have a modest impact on eliminating child labor (Das _et al._ , 2005).

7
2013. The market share of the largest exporter was 13 percent in 2013, while the market share of the four largest exporters (the C4 index) was over 36 percent. The Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI) was 513, which is low and equivalent to a setting with 20 symmetric exporters trading 5 percent each (see Table 2). The figures indicate that concentration increased slightly between 2011 and 2013, but nevertheless it remains low.

**Figure 3. Evolution of total exports (in thousand tons), 1994-2013, and export price (in USD / ton), 2008 - 2013**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 180 1600<br>160 1400<br>140<br>1200<br>120<br>1000<br>100<br>800<br>80<br>600<br>60<br>400<br>40<br>20 200<br>0 0<br>Exports, in '000 tons (solid line) - left axis<br>Export price, in USD/tons (dotted line) - right axis<br>'000 tons USD/tons<br>1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: CNC (2012) and World Bank.

**Table 2. Summary of exporters (years 2011 and 2013)**

||**2011**|**2013**|
|---|---|---|
|Number of exporters|51|49|
|C1|9.1%|12.7%|
|Number with share over 5%|5|3|
|C4|27.4%|35.9%|
|Cashewprocessors market share|1.2%|1.5%|
|HHI|382|513|
|Equivalent to symmetric exporters|~25|~20|

Source: own elaboration based on CNC (2012) and World Bank. C1 is the market share of the largest exporter. C4 is the cumulated share of the 4 largest exporters. HHI is Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index defined in Box 2.1.

**<u>Processors:</u>** Decree 3 /2005 provided for the development of industrialization of cashews. In was in this context that the government created FUNPI (see below).

6
shows that the real effective exchange rate appreciates nationally. Another measure of a real appreciation is the ratio of nontraded to traded prices which here is proxied by comparing services to manufacturing prices—this measure too points to a real appreciation. Finally consistent with the Balassa-Samuelson effect, wages increase across the country, also reducing the external competitiveness of sectors that did not experience a productivity gain (like agriculture). The real appreciation reduces international agricultural prices in local currency units. Both the loss of competitiveness of agriculture and the lower prices in local currency terms reduce agricultural production, and accordingly land rents fall. Lower land rents reflect less demand for the conversion of natural land to production and hence deforestation declines (natural land remains higher than in the baseline in Figure 2).

_Figure 2. Impacts from an increase in Brazilian manufacturing TFP. Deviation from the baseline. Percent changes for prices, Millions of hectares for land use_ <!-- Start of picture text --> External<br>15 competitiveness Prices Land use<br>10<br>5 1.9 0.8<br>0<br>-5<br>-10<br>-15<br>-20<br>-25<br>-30<br>Real wages Land rents<br>Mha)<br>prices Agricultural prices<br>REER (+ = appreciation) Services prices / manufacturing Natural land (Brazil, Mha) Natural land (Legal Amazon,<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Simulation results from CGE model.

Note: Assumes a 0.5pp permanent increase in Brazilian manufacturing TFP relative to the baseline.

This shows that raising the competitiveness of non-land intensive sectors like manufacturing can reduce deforestation. However, this does not mean that manufacturing productivity should be pursued at the expense of agricultural productivity. Table 3 confirms the results of Table 2 that show that an increase in agricultural productivity in the Legal Amazon results in higher local deforestation (while increasing cattle and soy production in the region) and higher manufacturing productivity in the Legal Amazon lowers local deforestation. Yet the table provides some additional information on the extensity of farming, land productivity (more closely related to the concept of agricultural yields and agricultural intensification). Although manufacturing productivity reduces deforestation, it makes agriculture less land-efficient: Table 3 shows that both agricultural output and land productivity fall when only manufacturing total factor productivity increases. This could simply displace the deforestation problem to other parts of the 10
Atmospheric pollution levels reflect these differences in emissions, as suggested by Figure <!-- Start of picture text --> Total S02 Emissions<br>100o .-.......... ....... ................<br>12coo<br>1!2~J l3<br>o .<br>_ a<br>0 c<br>o ~~~~<br><!-- End of picture text -->

1. Figure 6 presents S02 concentration levels for Beijing, Shanghai, and the major cities of the other three provinces: Shenyang (Liaoning), Guangzhou (Guangdong) and Chongqing (Sichuan). Again, the highest level by far is observed in Chongqing. The result is a very large difference in the risk of death or serious damage from respiratory disease, with consequences that have = > =>been illustrated in Figure 2.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Total COD Emissions Total TSP Emissions<br>1200000: ................................................................... ........ 20 ......................s20 ....... ..............................................<br>100000.200.<br>2000000<br>0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~8<br>0 -~~~~~~~~~~4<br>( and~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1993 8 0Ci (0 L<br>(0 Co~~~~~~~~~<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Figure 5: Air** and **Water Pollution Loads, 1988 and 1993**

6~~~~6
and movements in relative wages and employment by skill qualification. These data are also used by planners to analyze the operation of iabor markets and their performance.

Earnings data from respondents in household surveys are frequently regressed on respondents' educational qualifications to estimate rates of roturn to different levels of schooling and fields of study. Rates of return to training can also be estimated where data are collected periodically in these surveys by type of training and source. These estimates based on respondents' earnings are subject to adjustment for reasons explained above. National household and establishment surveys provide a uniform framework for the estimation and comparison of rates of return to alternative levels and types of education and training. Most developing countries already conduct these surveys with varying frequency and detail. Adapting these surveys to the needs of manpower planning may require additional investments in improving the quality of the data collected, the concepts and detail provided, and the timeliness of their collection and presentation. These surveys of labor force activity and employment are also used in evaluating and developing macroeconomic policies.

National household and establishment surveys are essential to a comprehensive labor market information system. Other components of this system will include the capacity for conducting special surveys in local labor markets or on topics of special interest for education and training. Tracer and cost studies, usually conducted as part of the monitoring and evaluation of training programs, are also important sources of information for training decisions. Table 1 summarizes the data sources that might be used in manpower planning and the type of data to be collected from each source and its purpose. On a more practical level for managers of training programs, the flow of information on skills demand and the success of training in meeting the skill standards of employers can be developed by simply building good linkages between training .nstitutions and enterprises. Creating a permanent pipeline of market information on the demand for skills and their supply is crucial as a guide to improving training quality and efficiency.

Countries that lack a comprehensive labor market information system can still benefit from a labor market signal!ing approach through the use of relatively inexpensive surveys of establishments 24
# Appendix 3B: Detailed ISIC sectors inside financial services (WIOD sector 28)

|6511|Central banking|
|---|---|
|6519|Other monetary intermediation|
|6591|Financial leasing|
|6592|Other credit granting|
|6599|Other financial intermediation n.e.c.|
|6601|Life insurance|
|6602|Pension funding|
|6603|Non life insurance|
|6711|Administration of financial markets|
|6712|Security dealing activities|
|6719|Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation n.e.c.|
|6720|Activities auxiliary to insurance and pension funding|

# Appendix 3C: Detailed ISIC sectors inside business services (WIOD sector 30)

|7111|Renting of land transport equipment|
|---|---|
|7112|Renting of water transport equipment|
|7113|Renting of air transport equipment|
|7121|Renting of agricultural machinery and equipment|
|7122|Renting of construction and civil engineering machinery and equipment|
|7123|Renting of office machinery and equipment (including computers)|
|7129|Renting of other machinery and equipment n.e.c.|
|7130|Renting of personal and household goods n.e.c.|
|7210|Hardware consultancy|
|7220|Software consultancy and supply|
|7230|Data processing|
|7240|Data base activities|
|7250|Maintenance and repair of office, accounting and computing machinery|
|7290|Other computer related activities|
|7310|Research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering (NSE)|
|7320|Research and experimental development on social sciences and humanities (SSH)|
|7411|Legal activities|
|7412|Accounting, book-keeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy|
|7413|Market research and public opinion polling|
|7414|Business and management consultancy activities|
|7421|Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy|
|7422|Technical testing and analysis|
|7430|Advertising|
|7491|Labour recruitment and provision of personnel|
|7492|Investigation and security activities|

44
funds is an important impediment for the development of the funded pension system in the Russian Federation. Since public sector law is applicable to these funds, the transfers to individual accounts can only be made once the full reconciliation process is completed. The government is aware of these restrictions and has analyzed the possibility of clarifying the Law, so these operations become subject to civil code. While it is common in other CEE countries to allow for adjustments in the months following the transfers, it does not seem to be the case in Russia.

**The long delays in crediting the accounts reduce the accountability in the system** . Individuals are unlikely to track the payments of their contributions when transfers take place on an irregular schedule. As shown in Table 4, the amounts transferred by PFR to the different intermediaries do not follow a consistent pattern over the years or among different groups. While contributors in NPFs received transfers in 2008, contributors whose pension assets are managed by PFR-VEB did not receive any transfers. Contributions in 2009 returned to trend levels, but there was no clear recovery from 2008 missing contributions to VEB and PFR-AMs.

Table 4 Transfers from PFR to Intermediaries <u>(RUR billion)</u>

||2006|2007|2008|2009|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|VEB|83,5|90,5|0,1|111.5|
|AM|3,0|3,4|1,4|3.3|
|NPFs|7,1|15,8|16,6|29.4|
|TOTAL|93,6|109,7|18,0|144.2|

Source: FFMS, PFR

**In order to minimize the distortions of the legal framework, the funds that are in the transition period should be deposited at the PFR-VEB and transferred to the PFR-AM and NPF with the interest earned during that period included.** Since the problem of long delays requires a change in the Law and probably some additional discussion before being resolved it should be ensured that the funds that remain in transit before being deposited into the individual accounts should at least receive the returns of the investments in the default portfolio. Although these provisions are stipulated in the law (Government Resolution 652), the long delays and erratic amount of transfers (see Table 4) make difficult to track this information.

# 6.4 Supervision

**The compliance based approach followed by FFMS does not allow the detection of the risks of the funded system.** FFMS is the supervisor of the second pillar pension system. Despite the large number of pension funds and asset managers of the second pillar, the human resources of FFMS are relatively limited. Supervision is mostly compliance based and relies on the criteria of the custodians. As pension funds invest in companies belonging to the sponsor’s conglomerate, it is very likely that problems of valuation may appear. Fortunately all the 2<sup>nd</sup> pillar funds are DC, and therefore there is no discussion about discount rates and the funding ratios after the crisis, but this can be an important issue in voluntary pension funds from the third pillar. In addition, the investment limits of the regulation are not able to preclude NPFs from taking excessive risks, and therefore a better approach to supervision is needed.

19
# **2.2 The Temporal Dimension**

De Graff (2003) documents the annual “pulse” of Bangladesh’s inland fisheries, with a sharplyhigher catch during September - December as monsoon floods reach their peak and begin receding. By implication, a complete analysis of fish consumption and child health should incorporate seasonal fluctuations in fish supply. Single-year DHS surveys do not permit this, since they are implemented in a subset of months. However, as Table 2 shows, full monthly effects can be incorporated into the five-year composite panel. Survey periods are November-April (DHS 1999-2000); January-May (DHS 2004); March-August (DHS 2007); July-December (DHS 2011); and June-November (DHS 2014). As the Total column shows, combining the surveys provides ample observations for all 12 months. This permits a full representation of seasonal effects in our exercise, combined with yearly controls to account for annual fluctuations in flood extent.<sup>2</sup>

**Table 2:  Distribution of DHS surveys by month and year**

|||<br>|**Year**<br>||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Month**|**1999-2000**|**2004**|**2007**|**2011**|**2014**|**Total**|
|**January**|**1,596**|**1,860**|**0**|**0**|**0**|**3,456**|
|**February**|**1,521**|**1,226**|**0**|**0**|**0**|**2,747**|
|**March**|**694**|**1,389**|**479**|**0**|**0**|**2,562**|
|**April**|**3**|**1,416**|**1,501**|**0**|**0**|**2,920**|
|**May**|**0**|**1,009**|**1,448**|**0**|**0**|**2,457**|
|**June**|**0**|**0**|**1,126**|**0**|**127**|**1,253**|
|**July**|**0**|**0**|**1,206**|**1,786**|**1,914**|**4,906**|
|**August**|**0**|**0**|**390**|**1,201**|**2,066**|**3,657**|
|**September**|**0**|**0**|**0**|**1,388**|**2,063**|**3,451**|
|**October**|**0**|**0**|**0**|**1,797**|**1,315**|**3,112**|
|**November**|**1,551**|**0**|**0**|**1,411**|**401**|**3,363**|
|**December**|**1,448**|**0**|**0**|**1,159**|**0**|**2,607**|
|**Total**|**6,813**|**6,900**|**6,150**|**8,742**|**7,886**|**36,491**|

> 2 While the rationale for incorporating monthly effects seems compelling, we acknowledge the possibility of countervailing factors.  For example, recent research has studied the impact of flooding in Dhaka on diarrheal disease (Schwartz et al. 2006) and mortality more generally (Thiele-Eich et al. 2015).  Our assessment of disease incidence in Section 5 controls for this factor.

6
Functions performed by mobile phones also increased rapidly from simple text messaging to financial transactions. For example, some operators have introduced services allowing individuals to transfer money from a bank account to a mobile phone. By mid-2007, about 5.5 million Filipinos were using such services (Forbes, 2007). In addition, some of those services are available to international migrants who can send remittances directly to their relatives via their mobile phones. Money is immediately available for withdrawal at designated locations Insights from research on asymmetric information indicate that traders, having better market information, will be at an advantage when negotiating with farmers over the price of their produce. The introduction and adoption of mobile phones might increase farmer bargaining power, however. Indeed, farmers can use their mobile phone either to get price information from friends and relatives or to get a quote from another trader (thus reducing the uncertainty regarding the trader’s willingness-to-pay for their produce).

Further, the adoption of mobile phones could impact farmers’ decision to travel to market rather than to sell at farm-gate. Indeed, without local market information, farmers might be reluctant to take the costly trip to markets to sell their goods. This would change once farmers use mobile phones. However, as pointed out by Fafchamps and Vargas Hill (2005), farmers able to pay to transport their goods to market will benefit more from such opportunities. Overall, this indicates that farmer income will increase after adopting mobile phones, which should translate into higher consumption levels.

# **_3. The Data_**

This study uses spatially coded data on mobile phone coverage together with a household panel dataset that was collected in the Philippines in the fall of 2003 and 2006 for the impact evaluation of a participatory development project. The GSM coverage maps (cf. Figures 1 and 2) are a compilation of coverage information provided by network operators. Coverage areas are aggregate, reflecting the combined coverage of operators, 5