### Il. PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VIETNAM DEVELOPMENT GOALS

The discussion of goals in this section covers the eleven Vietnam Development Goals emphasised in the CPRGS and set out in Table 2. This set of eleven VDGs incorporates the localized, adjusted versions of the MDGs, but also extends beyond this international set of goals to include some complementary goals chosen to address the particular challenges and priorities of the Government of Vietnam. For each goal and associated outcome target, this section examines recent achievements and projects future progress. A considerable amount of analytical work has already been undertaken in Vietnam using mainly data from the Living Standards Surveys in 1993 and 1998 and the four Participatory Poverty Assessments (PPAs) in 1999. This has set a sound basis for the analysis presented in these eight papers. Where information is available the past performance in Vietnam is set against international comparisons. The discussion of each goal includes an analysis of the main challenges and strategic issues confronting the Government as they seek to reach their stated outcomes. Section four looks at broader challenges which will influence achievement over several or all goals.

This section draws directly and substantially on the analysis presented in the eight thematic papers.

# Vietnam Development Goals directly based on the MDGs

## Goal One: Eradicate Poverty and Hunger

#### Achievements

MDGs already met - Vietnam has already met the international MDGs for poverty and hunger reduction. Although accurate estimates of poverty before the early 1990s are not available, many believe that in 1990 approximately 70 percent of the population was living under the poverty line’. By 1998, data show that the incidence of poverty had been halved to 37 percent (World Bank et al, 1999). Food poverty* reduced from 25 percent to 15 percent over the 1993-1998 period. Simulations based on data from 1993 and 1998 suggest that by 2001 32 percent of the population are under the poverty line and 13 percent are under the food poverty line.

National achievements mask regional differences - Poverty is not distributed evenly across Vietnam: mapping poverty by province through combining the Vietnam Living Standards Survey (VLSS) data and the 1999 Census data demonstrates that the poverty headcount varies from a low of 4 percent of the population in Ho Chi Minh City to a high of 78 percent in Lai Chau (Baulch and Minot 2001). Although the reduction in poverty between 1993 and 1998 occurred in both rural and urban areas, the 1998 VLSS showed that poverty was higher in rural areas and among ethnic minorities. The percentage of the population living below the total poverty line declined from 66 percent in 1993 to 45 percent in 1998 in rural areas and from 25 percent to 9 percent in urban areas. Using the food poverty line the decline in rural areas has been from 29 to 18 percent and from8 to 2 percent in urban areas over the same period.

Although poverty has declined in all seven regions of Vietnam, the pattern of these declines has been uneven. The greatest reductions have occurred in the South East and in the Red River Delta. The Northern Uplands and the Mekong Delta reduced poverty at a slower rate between 1993 and 1998. Poverty

> > The “poverty line” here refers to a line estimated by the General Statistics Office, using an internationallyrecognized methodology based on a national minimum set of food and non-food requirements. This is not the PPP $1 per day poverty line.

> * The “food poverty line” refers to the amount needed in Vietnam to obtain a basket of food that provides 2100 calories per person per day.

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