rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
APPENDIX

# Appendix B: Bond prices and investor returns

## B1. Database of bond prices and returns

This section summarizes the sources and coding for our database of sovereign bond prices and returns across 200 years. As explained in the main text we focus on bonds issued (i) by central governments, (ii) in foreign currency (only US dollar and British pound bonds), (iii) traded and priced on the London or New York Stock Exchanges and (iv) with a fixed coupon rate (no floating rate instruments).

We first discuss the historical data, then move to the modern sample that uses JP Morgan’s EMBI data and then describe the final, merged, 200-year dataset.

### **Historical bond prices and returns, 1818-1980**

For the 19<sup>th</sup> century we use price data of those external sovereign bonds traded on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). From the early 20<sup>th</sup> century on, these data are complemented with bonds traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). New York becomes the dominant market for trading and issuing external sovereign bonds from the mid-1920s onwards.

To identify bonds and their prices we rely on several main sources. The London price data for the early 19<sup>th</sup> century and until 1870 comes from the Money Market Review, The Economist, Circular to Bankers, Course of the Exchange, and The Banker’s Magazine. For the 1869-1929 period we mostly use LSE pricing data from the Investors Monthly Manual, as provided by Goetzmann and Rouwenhorst at the International Center for Finance at Yale. We extend their data series of LSE sovereign bond prices by 50 years, using quotations from The Economist and Financial Times from 1930 to 1980. For illustration, Figure B1 shows an example of how this source looks like. The bond price data from the NYSE was coded from the “Bank and Quotation Section” of the Commercial Financial Chronicle (from 1905 to 1927 and 1954 to 1978) and from the Bank and Quotation Record (from 1927 to 1954).

Our baseline is to use price data of the last trading or business day of the month. We deviate from this rule only for a few dozen bonds before 1850, when markets were not as developed and liquid. For that period, we use the last available price of a month and, rare occasions, also the average between low and high prices of a month.

Beyond prices, we draw on additional sources to collect the financial and legal characteristics of each bond, in particular amount issued, issue date, maturity, coupon rates, coupon frequency, repayment schedule, guarantees or type of issuer. These are taken from bond manuals such as Fenn’s Compendium of the English and Foreign Funds (1837-1838, 1855, 1857, 1863, 1867, 1869, 1874, 1876, 1883, 1889, 1893); Fortune’s Epitome of the Stock and Public Funds (1800, 1810, 1820, 1824, 1826, 1833, 18381839, 1850-1851, 1856); Kimber's Records on Government Debts and other Foreign Securities (1918, 1919, 1922, 1934), Moody's Manuals on Foreign and American Government Securities (yearly 1920196ex0), and the London Stock Exchange Yearbooks (1877-1878, 1880-1881, 1883-1888, 1890, 1894A4
instruments are valid. The coefficients on our variables of interest remain positive and significant, confirming that migrants have a pro-exports effect, which is especially large in the case of African exports. This result might be related to the fact that African products suffer from especially large trade barriers that can be overcome by migrant networks, namely relatively weak legal institutions and limited or inadequate information about international trading opportunities.

Given the importance of good institutions in promoting trade (Anderson and Marcouiller, 2002; Berkowitz et al., 2006) and the low quality of institutions in Africa, we expect the potential role of migrants to act as a substitute for good institutions, emphasized by Greif (1993) and Rauch (2001), to be particularly relevant for Africa. Greif (1993) and Rauch (2001) suggested that migrant networks can help alleviate contract enforcement issues, since the use of networks can reduce opportunistic behavior. Migrant networks, by building trust or acting as its substitute, can thus especially favor exports in countries with weak legal institutions.

To test this hypothesis, we include in the estimation an interaction term between migrants and the quality of institutions in countries of origin. One of the main impediments to trade might be the existence of a weak mechanism of arbitration in exporting countries to settle disputes between traders. Therefore, we rely on the law and order index from the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) as a measure of institutional quality, which assesses the strength and impartiality of the legal system and the popular observance of the law.

The results are presented in columns 3 and 4 of Table 1. Column 3 exhibits the results from the OLS estimator, which suggest a mean positive and statistically significant effect of the diaspora from country _i_ established in country _j_ (MLgNanNsii _)_ on exports from _i_ to _j_ all over the world. The coefficient associated with the interaction term highlights that the positive effect of the diaspora on trade decreases in conjunction with the quality of institutions of the country of origin ( _i_ ). It suggests that the pro-trade effect of migrants is particularly strong in fostering exports for countries with a weak institutional quality, revealing a substitution relationship between the diaspora and institutional quality. This result is confirmed in column 4, after controlling for the potential endogeneity bias with the instrumental variables. Interestingly, we find for all estimators a threshold value for the institutional quality beyond which the diaspora stops fostering trade that exceeds the maximum of the law and order index in our sample, suggesting that migrants have a pro-trade effect, whatever the quality of institutions.

13
**Figure A1.9. MDG4 (under-five mortality) by simulation and year (per 1,000)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 95<br>90<br>85<br>base<br>80<br>min+<br>75 inf+<br>hd+<br>70<br>geff+<br>65<br>60<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Figure A1.10: MDG 7w (improved water access) by simulation and year (Percent)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 88<br>86<br>84<br>82 base<br>80 min+<br>78 inf+<br>76 hd+<br>74 geff+<br>72<br>70<br><!-- End of picture text --> 33
weighted-average coefficient for each group. As shown in the bottom row, there is evidence of an increase in the effect of distance on trade when we average over all industries. Specifically the coefficients suggest that trade growth was biased toward proximate countries. The average coefficients are -.10 to -.14. They imply that over the whole period, from 1985 to 2000, the distance elasticity of trade increased by .10 to .14 percentage points.

Next, for comparison purposes, we estimate the effect of distance on trade growth using data on bilateral aggregate merchandise trade from 1980-2000. The results are reported in Table 3. In this case we use five-year trade growth, in order to allow countries that entered in each period to be part of the sample. We show the results for three samples: (i) all available data, (ii) full reporters, which includes only countries that report trade in all periods, but allows for new partners over time, and (iii) a balanced sample. They include 180, 125, and 112 reporting countries, respectively. The balanced sample is most comparable to the industry sample, since by definition both exclude trade with new partners. Comparing results from the different samples is therefore important in order to ensure that new partners do not have a large effect on the results.

The coefficient on distance is always negative and significant, irrespective of the sample. Thus, similar to gravity results, we find evidence that trade growth has been biased toward shorter distances. The coefficient from the balanced sample is somewhat higher than from the others but all are very similar, indicating that the increase in the importance of distance is widespread and not just a function of excluding new partners. The coefficient distance from the 5-year growth regressions ranges from-.05 to -.07, implying a increase in the magnitude of the elasticity of trade to distance of about .15-.21 17
- What definitions are used by the country to classify government expenditures as capital? Are there forms of spending that could be classified as capital expenditures that are not considered as such, for example, rehabilitation?

- Is there a definition for rehabilitation expenditure, and is rehabilitation distinguished from other capital spending? (Provide sector nuances as necessary.)

- What is the definition of maintenance spending, and are there forms of spending that could be considered as maintenance that are not classified as such—for example, periodic maintenance? What are the criteria for splitting operating expenditures from maintenance expenditures?

The report should indicate whether the country has a dual budget system (that is, separate recurrent and development budgets) or a unitary budget (as is more common in francophone countries).

The basis for recording ―released‖ expenditure figures in template 10 should be indicated, that is, whether the figures represent supplementary budgets, allocations made by the ministry of finance (Ministry of Finance), or a combination of the two.

# **_c.2 Assumptions_**

It is also important to record all key assumptions<sup>10</sup> made in compiling the quantitative templates.

Where—in the absence of a centralized information source—a sample of sub-national governments or SOEs has been selected, the basis for making the selection should be reported. The selection should generally be made on the basis of the relative importance of the organization‘s spending. Any deviations from this principle should be indicated and explained.

Sometimes it may not be possible to directly map a country‘s functional and economic classifications to the GFSM 2001. In these situations is best to not split expenditures, but instead to allocate the expenditure to the most important function or economic item. Any assumptions of this kind should be carefully documented.

Differences in financial reporting for SOEs between countries following different accounting traditions (for example, Anglophone and Francophone Africa) is frequently an issue, specifically in relation to the income statement. These differences should be noted, and any assumptions made in presenting the data in the template stated.

Interest payments are not always recorded in the budget at the sector level. Where these are known, any assumptions used by the Ministry of Finance in allocating interest payments to sectors should be stated.

# **_c.3 Code mapping_**

In this section the user will record whether GFSM 2001 expenditure classifications have been adopted by a given country.

> 10 Assumptions of minor significance (measured by the scale of expenditure involved) can be reported as comments on the soft copies of relevant templates.

54
# **References**

- Aguilera, A., Krishnan, N., Muñoz, J., Riva, F. R., Sharma, D., & Vishwanath, T. (2019). Sampling for Representative Surveys of Displaced Populations. In J. Hoogeveen, & U. Pape, _Data Collection in Fragile States: Innovations from Africa and Beyond_ (pp. 129-152). Washington DC: Palgrave Macmillan.

- Cattaneo, M. D., Galiani, S., Gertler, P. J., Martinez, S., & Titiunik, R. (2009). Housing, Health, and Happiness. _American Economic Journal: Economic Policy_ , 75-105.

- Chin, A., & Cortes, K. E. (2015). The Refugee/Asylum Seeker. In B. R. Chiswick, & P. W. Miller, _Handbook of the Economics of International Migration (Volume I)_ (pp. 585-658).

- Galiani, S., Gertler, P. J., Undurraga, R., Cooper, R., Martínez, S., & Ross, A. (2016). Shelter from the storm: Upgrading housing infrastructure in Latin American slums. _Journal of Urban Economics_ , 166-194.

- Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis. _The American Economic Review_ , 126-142.

- UNHCR. (2014). Housing, Land, & Property Issues in Lebanon: Implications of the Syrian Refugee Crisis.

- UNHCR. (2018). _Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2018._ Geneva: UNHCR.

11
authors. In this manner, they score the regulatory regimes of the 11 sectors in the 103 countries according to the Australian authors’ criteria.

# **4.2.2 Estimates of AVEs of Barriers to Cross-Border Trade in Services.** Several

authors have used gravity models to estimate AVEs of barriers to cross-border trade in services. The most comprehensive of these efforts is by Francois, Hoekman and Woerz (2007). Using data from the International Monetary Fund, they estimated the AVEs of barriers in four categories of cross-border services for 178 countries, including the Philippines. We use their estimates for the Philippines in their table A2 and map their four services categories into our eight services sectors as follows: (i) transportation: our three transportation services sectors; (ii) producer services: communication, insurance and other financial services; (iii) other business services: professional services; and (iv) other non-traded services: trade and various mechanical repairs. The results for the AVEs are in table 3.

# **4.3 Estimates of the AVEs of the Costs of Time in Exporting and Importing.**

In order to estimate the impact of improved trade facilitation, in this paper we apply the time cost of trade dataset of Hummels and Schaur (2013) and Hummels _et al_ . (2007). Using the estimates of Hummels and his co-authors, Peter Minor (2013) provided estimates for the regions and products in the GTAP database on a bilateral basis. There are separate estimates for the time cost of exports and imports. We use estimates from Peter Minor, which we aggregate to the sectors and regions of our model, yielding the time cost of trade for exports and imports by product and country on a bilateral trade basis.<sup>21</sup> The results are displayed in table 3.

# **4.4 Estimates of the AVEs for Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) for the Regions of our Model**

Cadot and Gourdon (2014) have shown that the old command and control non-tariff measures, like quotas, bans, licenses and foreign exchange rationing have significantly declined in importance; but sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) regulations and standards as technical barriers to trade (TBTs) have become the new non-tariff measures that restrict trade. In the case of the RCEP countries, there are a total of 3,813 SPS measures and 4,367 TBTs in effect. The RCEP countries with the most SPS measures reported are China (1,020), New Zealand (524), South Korea (518), Japan (430), Australia (386) and The Philippines (332). The RCEP countries with the most TBTs are China (1,162), Japan (758), Korea (742) and Thailand (584) and The Philippines

> 21 For the mathematics of the aggregation see the online appendix C to Balistreri, Tarr and Yonezawa (2015).

23
35 Table 9: Main Preferential Sources of hniports in EFIA Countries (1992)

|%|||S|hare in Impo|rts||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Fr|om:|To:<br>Finland|Norway|Sweden|Austria|Switzerland|
|1.|EFTA|19|22|16|7|72|
|2.|EU|46|49|55|68|7|
|3.|Baltics|1|0|1|0|0|
|4.|EE6|2|1|2|_5_|1|
||Israel|0|0|0|0|0|
||Turkey|0|0|0|0|0|
|5.|All Developing|13|12|12|12|8|
|6.|Russia|7|2|1|1|0|

Source: UN Comtrade data base.

Potential for future trade creation for the Baltics in EFTA markets can be substantial, which increases the value of preferential access from deeper integration. As skill levels in the Baltics are very high and wages relatively low, the Baltics could rapidly replace other preferential suppliers such as Portugal and Greece in labor-intensive goods in the Nordic EFTA markets in the intermediate run. Preferential access to the protected Nordic countries is likely to have benefitted Southern Europe at the cost of Lower cost developing country suppliers. For example, Portugal holds a substantial share in clothing imports of the Nordic countries, between 12-16% of total (Annex table 2). This is likely to change once the free trade agreements with Eastern Europe and Turkey become effective in 1993'9 and start taking hold. But differences in skill-endowments suggest that in the longer run both the Baltics and the Eastern Europeans

**'9EFor Finland** this only applies to Turkey as the Eastern Europeans have had a free access in the past. Their share of the Finnish clothing imports is also relatively higher than those in Sweden and Norway.
- 51 -

- India. 1971a. Census of India 1961. Volume I. Part 1l-A (II) Union Primary Census Abstracts. New Delhi: Census Commissioner.

- India. 1971b. Census of India 1961. Volume I. Part 1l-A (II) General Economic Tables. New Delhi: Census Commissioner.

- India. 1981a. Urban Growth In India. Census Monograph No.1. New Delhi: Office of the Registrar General.

- India. 1981c. Census of India 1961. SerIes-i, Paper No.3 of 1981, Provislonal Population Totals: Workers and Nonworkers. New Delhi: Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India.

- India. 1988. Seventh Flve-Year Plan 1985:90: Mid-Term Appraisal. New Delhi: Government of Indla, Planning Commission.

-

- Jacob, Paul. 1986. _Concept of Work' and Estimates of Workforce' an Appraisal of_ **_the_** _Treatment of Activitles Relating to NonMarketed Output._ Sarvekshana 9(4):11-16.

- Jain, Rajlv. 1986. Planning a Small Scale Industry, A Guide to Entrepreneurs. Delhi: S.S. Books Associates.

- Johnston, B.F. and P. Kllby. 1975. Agriculture and Structural Transformation: Economic Strategles In Late-Developing Countries. London: Oxford University Press.

- Khandker, Shahdur R. 1988. _Effect_ of _Agrocilmatlc Endowments and Infrastructure on Rural_ **_Wage and_** _Employment_ **_In_** _India._ (mimeo) Washington, D.C: World Bank.

- Khandker, S. 1989. _Improving Rural Wages In India._ Working Paper, WPS No. 276, World Bank, Washington, D.C.

- Krishna, RaJ. 1975. _Measurement of the Direct and Indirect Employment Linkages of Agricultural Growth with Technical Change._ In Heady and Whiting (eds.) Externalities In the Transformation of Agriculture. Ames: Iowa, Iowa State University Press.

- Little, Ian M.D.; Mazumdar, Dipak; and Page, John M. Jr. 1987. Small Manufacturing Enterprlses: A Comparative Analysis of Indla and Other Economies. New York: Oxford University Press.

- Mellor, J. 1976. The New Economics of Growth: A Strategy for Indla and the Developing World. Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press.

- Mellor, J., and U. Lele. 1972. _Growth_ **_Linkages_** _of the_ **_New_** _Food Graln Technolog/es._ Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics 18(1):35-55.

- Mohan, R. 1984. _The economic determinants of urbanisation: the reglonal pattern of urbanisation In Indla explalned._ Development Research Dept. Discussion Paper No. 78. Washington, D.C.: Development Research Department, Economics and Research Staff, World Bank.

- Natarajan, K.S. 1982. **_1981 Econom/c_** _Census Data._ Economic and Political Weekly. August 21, 1982.
Table 6: Cities where FGDs were planned, showing relevant discounts on stamp duty and property tax for females

|**State**|**City**|**Stamp duty discount for females**|**Property tax discount for females**|
|---|---|---|---|
|Karnataka|Bengaluru|No|No|
|Gujarat|Ahmedabad|Yes, but on registration charges only,<br>not stamp duty|No|
|Maharashtra|Mumbai|Yes|No|
|Maharashtra|Pimpri-<br>Chinchwad|Yes|Yes, in legal documentation but not on-<br>ground|
|Odisha|Bhubaneswar|Yes|No|
|Delhi|Delhi|Yes|Yes|

For each city, one FGD was to be conducted with six to eight female property owners while, for comparison, another FGD was planned with six to eight male property owners. (FGDs were held with male property owners, both single and joint, who purchased their property after marriage. Information on this was collected for respondents of both genders, but by including only married men who purchased their homes after marriage information focused on how ownership type, joint or single, was selected.) Table 7 shows the total participation by city, gender, and type of ownership (single or joint). FGDs with both males and females were conducted in all the cities as planned.<sup>22</sup> Table 7: Achieved FGD sample by gender, ownership type and city

||**Fema**|**les**|**Ma**|**les**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|**City**|**Single owner (n)**|**Joint owner (n)**|**Single owner (n)**|**Joint owner (n)**|
|Bengaluru|4|4|4|4|
|Ahmedabad|4|4|4|3|
|Mumbai|4|4|6|2|
|Pimpri-Chinchwad|0|8|5|4|
|Bhubaneswar|3|5|5|3|
|Delhi|5|3|4|4|

22. As can be seen, a good mix of male and female joint and single owners was obtained, except in the case of female single owners in Pimpri-Chinchwad, where no female single owners were found. This is the main reason for the slight skew toward more joint than single female owners overall across the cities, with the reverse being true for male owners overall, but that was also due, to some extent, to the availability of more single male owners in Mumbai.

16
- **Pay more attention to the quality of the bureaucracy and to improving management within government.** The World Bank’s Bureaucracy Lab<sup>80</sup> has been set up to facilitate this.

- **Experiment with using technological solutions to deliver standardized products at scale** . New technologies may enable replicable and scalable ways of maintaining quality while reaching large numbers of people. For example, a World Bank study with small firms in Togo found personal initiative training led to large increases in business profits.<sup>81</sup> However, delivering this in person was expensive and relied heavily on quality trainers. An ongoing study in Ecuador is testing the promise of online training to deliver standardized content to over 20,000 students.

- **Continue to evaluate at scale** **_._** The above lessons illustrate the importance of testing whether programs work as intended as they scale, and of the number of areas where further experimentation and learning are needed.

- **Do not stop trying to improve** . The basic microfinance model of group loans to women with immediate and regular repayment has not led to large reductions in poverty or growth in small businesses. But recent research has suggested that modifications to this basic model, such as introducing more flexibility in the repayment structure<sup>82</sup> , can greatly enhance the effectiveness. This highlights the need for continued innovation, even when a program has reached millions of people.

> 80 <mark>https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/dime/brief/Bureaucracy‐Lab.</mark>

> 81 <mark>Campos, Francisco, Michael Frese, Markus Goldstein, Leonardo Iacovone, Hillary Johnson, David McKenzie, and Mona Mensmann. “Teaching Personal Initiative Beats Traditional Training in Boosting Small Business in West Africa”</mark> , _<mark>Science, v</mark>_ <mark>ol. 357, issue 6357: pp. 1287‐90, 22 September 2017.</mark>

> 82 <mark>Field, E., R. Pande, J. Papp, and N. Rigol (2013). Does the Classic Microfinance Model Discourage Entrepreneurship among the Poor? Experimental Evidence from India.</mark> _<mark>American Economic Review</mark> 103(6): 2196–2226_ .

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**_Undeclared Economic Activity in Central and Eastern Europe – How Taxes Contribute and How Countries Respond to the Problem_**<sup>**_1_**</sup>

May 2010

# By: Willi Leibfritz

JEL Classification Numbers: E26, H26 Keywords: Taxation, tax policy, tax administration, informal economy, Eastern Europe

> 1 This paper—a product of the Human Development Economics Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region—is part of an effort to understand the underlying factors that determine the size of informal employment in the shadow economy, providing background technical analysis for a forthcoming World Bank regional study ―In from the Shadow: Integrating Europe's Informal Labor‖. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted as follows: willi.leibfritz@web.de