rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
African financing needs in the 1990s
This paper discusses the magnitude of
            external resources that sub-Saharan Africa may require
            during the 1990s.  There can be no firm projections because
            requirements are affected both by the growth and efficiency
            targets chosen and by a wide range of factors, both internal
            and external to sub-Saharan Africa, which often interact to
            reinforce or offset one another.  However, the specific
            projects provided by this paper offer a point of departure
            for further discussions.  It also provides a qualitative
            framework for considering how various factors affect
            resource requirements.  The conceptual framework used in
            this paper for estimating external resource requirements is
            based essentially on the two-gap model, in which the gap
            between domestic savings and gross investment must equal the
            difference between imports and exports, which is financed by
            external capital or foreign savings.  To provide a context
            for the discussions, this paper starts with a section on the
            economics history and evolution of sub-Saharan Africa.  A
            section on savings, investment and efficiency of capital
            follows, dealing with the feasibility of achieving the
            desired growth targets, the policy instruments available to
            attain them, and the policy reforms that African countries
            should implement to boost the demand for investment as well
            as private and public savings.  The final section analyzes
            the external resource requirements and discusses
            implications for other related economic and financial variables.
Measuring real exchange rate
            instability in developing countries : empirical evidence and implications
Exchange rate policy has received
            renewed attention because of its prominent role in
            adjustment programs. Several analysts have examined the
            impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on the performance
            of such economic variables as GDP growth, exports, and
            investment. The author uses data on the real exchange rate
            for 56 developing countries with managed exchange rates to
            make three points. First, the distribution of annual changes
            in real exchange rates is highly non-normal - both skewness
            and excess kurtosis. Secondly, this asymmetric non-normality
            implies that the common practice of using the standard
            deviation (or coefficient of variation) to compare real
            exchange rate uncertainty across countries is not justified.
            Finally, empirically, the higher order moments (skewness and
            kurtosis) are at least as important as the standard
            deviation in explaining cross-country performance.
How expectations affect reform
            dynamics in developing countries
Reform is often flawed by delayed
            implementation and, after initial acceptance, sudden
            reversals in public reaction. In recent years, many
            attribute these delays and reversals to reform dynamics
            because reform, particularly when comprehensive, rarely
            takes place all at once. In designing reform, it is
            important to determine what the best sequencing of reform
            would be, under what conditions that sequence is feasible,
            and how expectations will affect the success of alternative
            reform strategies. In the literature on second-best reform
            strategies, misperceptions about the prospective costs and
            benefits of reform add another intertemporal distortion to
            the many already identified. Bold moves, such as
            pre-announced institutional changes, are often suggested as
            a way to signal the beginning of a new policy regime. The
            author advocates a more cautious approach when a government
            has been discredited by a history of policy failures.
Economic crisis, structural
            adjustment, and health in Africa
This report applied two types of
            analysis to two types of data to try to quantify any
            short-term effect economic criswas and adjustment might have
            had on child mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. First the
            aggregate data for ten countries covered by the Demographic
            and Health Surveys project was analyzed. Then an elaborate
            data set for Cote d'Ivoire collected in the mid-1980s
            was analyzed. Both analyses used time-period dummy variables
            to identify the effects of criswas and adjustment. Despite
            very different methodologies and data sets, the two analyses
            produced surprisingly similar results. The authors found
            that in the short run, neither crisis nor adjustment
            increased child mortality at the national level, relative to
            countries not undergoing adjustment. However, the authors
            examined only short-term effects - the only ones they could
            expect to measure. The long-run effects of criswas and
            adjustment will depend on adjustment's success in
            boosting sustained long-term growth. Such growth should
            reduce child mortality and speed the reduction of fertility
            as well, thus reinforcing declines in child mortality.
Are Ghana's roads paying their
            way Assessing road use cost and user charges in Ghana
The author studied how much road damage
            contributes to road use costs in Ghana and how the marginal
            social costs should be recovered.  This required
            understanding the road deterioration process better and
            analyzing the implications for vehicle operating costs and
            road user charges.  The most important thing learned is that
            studies of road-user costs are feasible in reputedly
            data-poor countries.  The author found that to bridge the
            gap between road-user costs and charges, the annual fee for
            heavy trucks should be raised tenfold.  Fuel taxes alone are
            not adequate to distinguish fully the large difference in
            road damage costs incurred by heavy trucks and private cars.
            The taxing instrument most deficient in Ghana is the annual
            licensing fee.  Not only should licensing fees for heavy
            trucks be ten times higher than they are now, but exemptions
            from the licensing fee should be canceled and registration
            rules strictly enforced.  Even then, charges on heavy
            vehicles will not cover costs unless current legal limits of
            axle loading are obeyed. A more efficient means of reducing
            the damaging effects of heavy vehicles lies in structuring
            the annual fees to reflect how much more damaging two-axle
            heavy vehicles are than multiaxle vehicles.  The issue of
            redistribution of costs and fees is of secondary importance
            in Ghana because of low fuel consumption, low level of fuel
            taxes, and the fact that expenditures on fuels are
            proportionately the same for the poor and the nonpoor.
Debt, debt relief, and growth : a
            bargaining approach
This report compares and identifies two
            ways that Governments can "up-front" the
            adjustment effort: accumulating reserves; and engaging in an
            equity swap. The authors compare these methods with a
            constant rescheduling agreement which assumes that no
            reserves can be accumulated and that tax collections go to
            the creditors. The paper analyzes the outcome of a
            "memoryless" rescheduling agreement. The model
            exhibits two potential Laffer curves effects. In one, the
            lenders would want to reduce the vulnerability of the debtor
            to their sanctions (that is, required taxation). In the
            other, the debtor would actually prefer less growth than
            more. The role of reserves is studied and it is determined
            that their use can improve a country's welfare, over
            the case of the rescheduling agreement. The country must,
            however, be able to commit itself to a tax rate before
            negotiations start. Otherwise, reserves are useless.
            Debt-equity swaps are also studied. The outcome - always
            Pareto - dominates the outcome of the rescheduling
            equilibrium. Banks always gain a fraction of the
            country's capital above the share of output that they
            gain in the rescheduling equilibrium. Thus, banks are
            relatively less "impatient" than the country to
            reach a debt-relief agreement.
The CMEA system of trade and
            payments : the legacy and the aftermath of its termination
This paper describes the Council for
            Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) system of trade and
            payment (the "CMEA regime") and considers how the
            transition from traditional socialism to a market economy is
            linked to changes in the mechanism for international
            transactions. The paper begins with a brief history of the
            CMEA and a description of its organizational structure,
            institutional principles, and reform efforts. It then
            provides a brief statistical overview of the relative
            importance of CMEA trade to its members. The paper sets out
            the traditional "institutional model" of the CMEA
            regime, discusses its defects, and briefly evaluates the
            CMEA regime. After a description of the events surrounding
            the CMEA's demise in 1990, the paper concludes with the
            author's conjectures about the consequences of that demise.
A consumption-based direct tax for
            countries in transition from socialism
This paper suggests a consumption-based
            direct tax, referred to here as a simplified alternative tax
            or SAT, as an alternative to the standard income tax for
            reforming socialist economies (RSEs).  The paper consists of
            seven sections.  Section I serves as an introduction.
            Section II outlines some of the objectives of tax policy in
            RSEs and some of the constraints on the achievement of those
            objectives.  Section III provides examples of the
            overwhelming complexity of the income tax.  Section IV
            explains the basic mechanics of the SAT and contrasts the
            simplicity of the SAT with the complexity of the income tax.
            Section V describes the economic advantages of the SAT and
            section VI discusses some potential problems of the SAT.
            The final section concludes by stating that the SAT
            encourages saving and investment in a way that is
            economically neutral and avoids many of the administrative
            problems of an income tax.
External shocks, adjustment
            policies, and investment : illustrations from a
            forward-looking CGE model of the Philippines
This paper presents a model that
            integrates intertemporal and forward-looking behavior in
            investment and consumption decisions in a multisectoral
            general equilibrium framework applicable to developing
            countries. It formulates and uses an infinite-horizon growth
            model to examine the adjustment, growth, and debt problems
            of a middle-income country, which the author illustrates
            using data for the Philippines. The author concludes that
            the expectation is a key factor. Contrary to the common
            suggestion that an economy should adjust and contract in
            response to a permanent import price shock, the behavior
            suggested in a model with rational expectations in
            investment decisions is that the opposite can be true.
            Combined with other policies, tariff reform could rechannel
            investment and resources toward the more tradable sectors
            and exports can be emphasized and increased. If domestic
            resources are also mobilized through increased tax
            collection, the combined effect will be to reduce or slow
            the accumulation of foreign debt. In other words,
            middle-income countries like the Philippines missed a golden
            opportunity for policy reform in the 1970s and found it
            harder to implement adjustment policies under less favorable
            circumstances in the 1980s.
Impact of investment policies on
            German direct investment in developing countries : an
            empirical investigation
By using better data on German foreign
            direct investment (FDI) than previous studies, the author
            found that: (i) developing countries might attract more FDI
            flows by easing investment restrictions or implementing
            incentives - but the effect of incentives could be modest
            and does not justify costly subsidies; (ii) a source
            country's policy instrument (public garantees) is an
            important determinant of German FDI outflows to developing
            countries - a factor that has been overlooked in the past,
            and (iii) industrial countries can substantially encourage
            their companies to invest in developing countries by
            offering public garantees. The case of Germany has shown
            that the actual costs involved are very low, as defaults are
            rare. Thus once it is decided that public support should be
            used to direct more FDI to developing countries, source
            countries' policies might be more effective than host
            countries' policies especially if the latter involve
            high foregone tax revenues.
Does financial liberalization really
            improve private investment in developing countries
Assuming that liquidity constraints
            exist in most developing countries, the majority of analysts
            believe that increasing real interest rates will raise the
            volume of lending and hence private investment.  The author,
            focusing on the demand for capital goods, argues that the
            positive effect on the domestic credit market may be offset
            by the negative effect of a portfolio shift from capital
            goods and public bonds into monetary assets.  The author
            also demonstrates that a policy of financial liberalization
            could increase the public sector's demand for domestic
            credit, thus limiting the funds available to the private
            sector.  This crowding out does not result from a change in
            the government's behavior but from a shift in the
            portfolio of private agents. Higher demand for bank deposits
            reduces the private sector's willingness to hold
            government bonds, so the public sector must finance a given
            budget deficit with more domestic credit.  Simulations for
            Argentina for 1961 - 1982 suggest that the low response of
            private investors to changes in interest rate policy in
            those 20 years was attributable not to the low values of
            interest elasticities but to the interaction of the
            mechanisms allowed for in the model, which tends to
            neutralize the impact of such policies.  The author
            concludes that the effect of changes in interest rate policy
            on the demand for capital goods is weak in Argentina and
            might affect the quality of private investment more than its quantity.
Traditional medicine in sub-Saharan
            Africa : its importance and potential policy options
This report indicates that about 20
            percent of Africans who seek medical care first consult
            traditional healers. Patients tend to consult modern health
            care services for infectious or acute diseases, or those for
            which modern health care has been shown to be highly
            effective. But patients tend to consult traditional
            practitioners for chronic diseases, for diseases related to
            psychological or social disruption or to reproductive
            systems, for diseases that are slow to respond to treatment
            or deemed to be "magical" in origin. The prestige
            and credibility of traditional healers have been waning in
            the face of modernization and an increasingly educated
            public. Even so many highly educated people consult
            traditional practitioners. A survey in Ibadan of two groups
            - one educated elite, the other a traditional, less
            privileged group - found that roughly 70 percent of both
            groups used traditional health care, particularly
            traditional drugs. The author shows that traditional
            medicine is an important source of health care for
            significant number of Africans and that traditional healers,
            particularly those who wield authority within their
            communities, are an important human resource for health care.
Curricular content, educational
            expansion, and economic growth
The author explains whether national
            variations in curricula content and subject area - as
            distinct from growth in enrollment or qualitative provisions
            - have a significant impact on economic development.  The
            study focuses on primary education in 60 nations and
            assesses the economic impact of an emphasis on eight
            different primary level subject areas, with special
            attention to mathematics and science.  The author found that
            the curricular content of mass education is directly related
            to national economic growth. This relationship, however, is
            not consistent across all subject areas and all types of
            countries.  Countries requiring more hours of elementary
            science education generally experienced more rapid increases
            in their standards of living between 1960 and 1985.  Whether
            science education at the primary level is the key casual
            factor and whether the explicit content of the subject area
            is the key mechanism remain unclear.  The design, reform,
            and study of national school curricula are increasingly
            visible in political and scholarly agendas.  The economic
            consequences of emphasizing different subject areas should
            not be the sole criterion for decision making in designing
            curricula. However, these consequences can provide one
            useful element for promoting more informed discussion among
            parents, school administrators, national and international
            planners, and educational researchers.
The political economy of fiscal
            policy and inflation in developing countries : an empirical analysis
Most economists treat fiscal policy as
            exogenous and consider policymakers as machines to be
            programmed. Rarely do they seek to determine why, for
            instance, some countries rely on the inflation tax while
            others use direct taxation, let alone what political factors
            affect such decisions. Yet without a theory of how fiscal
            policymakers behave, at both the revenue and the expenditure
            levels, there is no guarantee that policy advice will turn
            out to be sound. The authors present the results of an
            empirical analysis of the political economy of fiscal policy
            for a group of developing countries. They look at
            alternative ways of incorporating political variables into
            the explanation of government policy actions. Dividing their
            results into three sections, one each for inflation, budget
            deficits, and devaluations, they find that: (a) the
            equilibrium inflation rate is higher the more citizens
            disagree about which party should hold office, and the more
            unlikely it is that the government currently in office will
            be reappointed; (b) political instability and polarization
            lead to a collective myopia that sometimes tempts
            policymakers to borrow too heavily and to leave the bills to
            their successors; and (c) governments tend to implement
            adjustment policies early in their tenure when they command
            political authority, but if political conflict arises, they
            may lack the strength to change the macroeconomic status quo
            and will resort instead to inflation and deficits.
Nongovernmental organizations and
            health delivery in sub-Saharan Africa
This paper attempts to present the
            distinctive characteristics - both positive and negative -
            of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) as institutions for
            providing health care. It reviews the historical role of
            NGOs as vital contributors to health care delivery in Africa
            and looks at how the current environment has brought NGOs to
            the fore. It analyzes the implications of the trend among
            donors to channel resources to developing countries through
            NGOs and discusses various policy options governments have
            employed in relation to NGOs. Finally, it raises some
            unanswered questions about environments conducive to NGO
            activity and contributing to roles that NGOs can be
            encouraged to fulfill without sacrificing their very
            strength in the development process.
Population, health, and nutrition :
            fiscal 1990 sector review
World Bank lending in the population,
            health and nutrition (PHN) sectors increased significantly
            in fiscal 1990. Over the past five years, PHN lending has
            grown rapidly both in the number of projects and in the
            amounts of loans and credits. The future lending portfolio
            indicates continued growth. Bank support of nutrition
            activities, both within the PHN sectors and as components of
            projects outside the PHN sectors, has expanded
            significantly. However, the Bank still faces important
            challenges in its effort to improve the effectiveness of its
            interventions in the PHN sectors. The review suggests a
            number of recommendations for further improving performance.
            On the technical side, the Bank should: (1) continue to
            focus and improve its interventions at the policy level; (2)
            address management and institutional development issues more
            rigorously and comprehensively through project, sector and
            research work; (3) squarely address and encompass the role
            of the private sector and NGOs in the design and delivery of
            PHN interventions; and (4) continue efforts to address and
            resolve PHN financing issues, given its comparative
            advantage in this regard. Internally the Bank should: (1)
            address the need to expand staff to accommodate continued
            growth likely in Bank work; and (2) encourage greater use of
            experts from developing countries and the participation of
            beneficiaries in Bank work.