20 of U.S. citizens. This provision is intended to help clear up the long backlog of qualified visa applicants in that category. The second provision provides an extra 10,000 visas in each of the next two fiscal years for people from "underrepresented" countries. This provision is being used largely by immigrants from South Asia and parts of Africa and Europe. In all, this bill establishes an additional 50,000 visas in a two-year period without reducing any other visa categories. Overall, there appears to be very little sentiment in Congress to reduce the total level of immigration by a substantial margin. Surveys show that there is less tolerance for immigration among the populace than among elected representatives, but anti-immigration forces are relatively weak and unorganized.

United States Recommendations. In summary, for 1985-1990 I would recommend that the World Bank use an annual legal immigration figure of 590,000. This figure should be reduced by annual emigration of 160,000 and augmented by annual net illegal immigration of 150,000. This results in net immigration of 580,000 annually, or 2,900,000 over the five-year period. For 1980-1985, gross legal immigration would be 25,000 less annually but illegal immigration may be 5,000 to 10,000 higher annually resulting in net immigration of about 563,000 annually or 2,815,000 over the five-year period. Although net immigration will probably remain constant at the 1985-1990 level for the rest of the century, the uncertain economic and political future make it prudent to project a gradual decrease in net immigration after 1990 to 2.80 million in 1990-1995 and 2.75 million in 1995-2000.

My recommendations for 1980-1985 are 23 percent higher thanu the latest United Nations estimates and 34 percent higher than the previouv World Bank estimates. The recommendations for 1985-1990 are 28 percent hAsner than the United Nations estimates and 35 percent higher than the previou3 World Bank estimates. My estimates, however, are lower than the latest of.icial estimates of the U.S. Bureau of the Census for 1987 that were released in August, 1988 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988). The Census Bureau figures for the annual level of net civilian immigration from 1970 to 1987 are shown in Table 7. For 1987, the Census Bureau estimates net civilian immigration at 599,000, including an allowance for illegal immigration. The components of this net figure are 559,000 legal immigrants, 160,000 emigrants, and 200,000 net illegal immigrants. Between 1980 and 1986, net immigration exceeded 600,000 in every year. The peak in the level of net immigration in 1980 was due to a large inflow of Cuban and Haitian entrants in that year. Therefore, the Census Bureau estimsats that net civilian immigration was 3,409,000 for calendar years 1980-1984. My own recommendation is 19 percent lower than the Census Bureau figures and thus must be considered on the conservative side. For calendar years 1985-1987 net immigration averaged 637,000 per year (according to the Census Bureau), which would total 3,185,000 if the same level were maintained for the remaining two years of the decade. My own recommendation is 2.9 million for that same period -- again a conservative estimate compared with the official figures.