and returnees). These results hold when enabling correlation between topics and adding time and location effects, as shown using mixed effects models. Furthermore, using more granular data on return and displacement flows we show that increased return is associated with economy topics and negatively associated with violence topics, while increased displacement is positively associated with violence topics. Finally, we use causal mediation analysis to show that in months with lower violence levels increased discussion of violent events mediates the relationship between violence and return.

In summary, our paper makes the following contributions: First, it shows the benefits of social media data, including images and messages, for fleshing out motives and discussions around displacement and return. Most research to date has been done using surveys and on the ground interviews which are costly and not always possible. By combining survey and other data with social media data, future research can leverage the precision of the former with the ease of remote access of the latter (Singh et al. (2019)). Second, we combine text analysis with image analysis to see to what degree images dovetail with the discourse and what additional information we can extract from this medium.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows: First, we discuss the context for our project including the situation in Syria, reasons for displacement and ongoing violence, and relevant literature on displacement, attitudes around return, and social media use. Next, we outline our research design and data collection, including procedures for choosing groups as well as text and image analysis methods. We then present our results and discussion, outlining our findings on return and internal displacement from topic models, images, mixed effects, and causal mediation analysis. We conclude with program and policy implications and suggestions for next steps.

# **2 The Syrian Context**

Since the start of the Syrian civil war in March 2011, Syria has seen unprecedented levels of internal displacement, movement of refugees, and civilian casualties. The war began as a protest movement in 2011 to remove President Bashar Al-Assad from power, a movement that coincided with Arab spring protests that removed the Egyptian and Tunisian presidents. Prior to the civil war there were already high levels of perceived corruption and diminished trust in public institutions (Bank (2017)). By 2012, the protests had evolved into militarized violence. As the war is in its 10th year over 400,000 Syrians have been killed and 13.2 million Syrians are refugees, asylum seekers, and internally displaced people, accounting for one sixth of the global total and 80% of the total Syrian population (UNHCR (2020)). Of these 13.2 million, 6.6 million are registered refugees, about two thirds of which reside in Turkey and five sixths of which reside in countries bordering Syria, the majority not in refugee camps (UNHCR (2021)). The war has exacted a heavy economic and social toll both on Syria and its neighboring countries (Bank (2020b), Bank (2017)).

The Syrian civil war is also complex in terms of foreign intervention. Since the early stages of the war many foreign parties have been involved in the conflict including Russia, Iran, and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah on behalf of the regime (Phillips (2016)), and states in the Gulf and Turkey on behalf of competing opposition factions. The US has intervened in support of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and International Coalition partners against ISIS. Meanwhile, foreign fighters and mercenaries have joined the conflict primarily on behalf of jihadist groups including ISIS (Mitts (2019)). Syrians have been displaced by air strikes and conflict in their home cities, including takeover by militants and regime forces, which is made even more volatile by the constantly changing factions and areas of control. There has also been a notable decrease in economic opportunity due to destruction of cities and roads as well as sanctions aimed at weakening 4