Lao PDR (copper, gold), Mauritania (copper, gold, oil), Republic of Congo (oil), and Zambia (copper). During 2003-12, new commodity discoveries in Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 22 percent of global discoveries and 15 percent of global exploration expenditures (Schodde 2013).

# **Figure 3 Cyclical and structural factors supporting LIC growth**

<!-- Start of picture text --> A. Annual GDP growth in LICs B. Commodity prices C. Resource production in LICs<br>of 2001 of 2001<br>Percent 2001 LIC average growth Index, 2000=100 Index, 2000=100 Copper<br>LICs turned MICs 400 Gold<br>10 Continued LICs Agriculture 300 Aluminum (RHS) 500<br>Energy<br>8 Industrial metals 250 Zinc (RHS) 400<br>300<br>6<br>4 200 300<br>2 200 150 200<br>0<br>-2 100 100<br>100<br>-4<br>50 0<br>-6<br>2000 2006 2012 2018<br>0<br>1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015<br>D. Annual average conflict- E. Gross government debt in F. MDRI and HIPC relief in LICs<br>related deaths LICs of 2001 of 2001<br>Thousands Percent of GDP 20-80th percentile US$ Billions Percent to GDP<br>80 AfricaAmericas 160 2001 LICs Debt relief<br>Europe 140 4 Debt relief to GDP (RHS) 80<br>60 Asia and Oceania 120<br>Middle East 100 3 60<br>80<br>40<br>60 2 40<br>40<br>20 20 1 20<br>0<br>0 0 0<br>1990s 2000s 2010s SAR SSA LAC ECA<br>1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018<br>2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: IMF WEO, Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO), Roser (2019), Haver Analytics, World Bank _Pink Sheet_ , World Bureau of Metal Statistics, World Bank staff calculations.

B. Agriculture includes 23 commodities, Industrial Metals includes 7 metals, and Energy includes coal, crude oil and natural gas. Index 100=2000.

D. Only conflicts in which at least one party was the government of a state and which generated more than 25 battle-related deaths are included. The data refer to direct violent deaths only and exclude outbreaks of disease or famine. Country-level data unavailable.

E. Unweighted averages. 2001 LICs includes 61 countries.

F. Committed debt relief under the assumption of full participation of creditors. Bars represent average debt relief per region in US$ billions for all Highly-Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) LICs. Diamonds reflect average debt relief per region relative to countries’ GDP.

The commodity boom of 2001-11 supported above-average growth in those 2001 LICs that were, or became, commodity exporters. Exports of primary commodities in these countries rose by onehalf of GDP between 2001 and 2011. Higher export earnings helped improve fiscal positions, with government revenues of commodity-exporting LICs rising by close to 4 percentage points of GDP, on average, and fiscal deficits narrowing by around 1 percentage point of GDP, between 2001 and 2011. This, as well as debt relief, allowed a doubling of social expenditures between the 2000s and 2010s. The commodity-driven growth surge was accompanied by a decline in inflation to single digits and an annual 3 percent real exchange rate appreciation between 2001 and 2011, on average, in commodity-exporting LICs (Trevino 2011; Guillaumont, Jeanneny, and Hua 2015).

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