We run the simulation until 2040, when the population of the City reaches 1,770,000 households (compared to 1,068,000 in 2011).<sup>37</sup> Maps (a) and (b) of Figure 2 show the population density and urban footprint under the two scenarios. Without the Urban Edge, the urbanized area would expand to 1,208 square kilometers, an urban footprint that is 40% greater than if spatial growth had been contained by the Urban Edge. Densities would be significantly greater, especially in the city center. Maps (c) and (d) of Figure 2 show that the lower footprint and greater density under the Urban Edge scenario would occur with significantly higher formal prices. Within 6 km of the CBD, we find that formal prices would be 21% higher under the Urban Edge Scenario than without the Urban Edge. Because formal housing would be less affordable to the poor, there would be an increase in the demand for informal housing, as shown on the histogram (e) of Figure 2. Because we assumed no spatial expansion of informal settlement footprints (only a densification in informal settlements), these would have become saturated by 2040 and backyard housing would absorb the informality differential between the two scenarios. In the Urban Edge scenario, we find that the number of households living in informal housing would be 27% higher than in the ’No Urban Edge’ scenario.

# _5.2. Public housing provision scenarios_

Subsidized housing has been an important part of post-Apartheid policies trying to address the housing backlog. The vast majority of the approximately 336,000 households who live in public housing as of 2016 (Statistics South Africa) live in dwellings transferred as part of the RDP and later the BNG program, delivered at a rate of approximately 10,000 per year in the 1990s and early 2000s, declining to about 5,000 per year by the late-2000s due to budget constraints and diversification to in situ upgrading of informal settlements.<sup>38</sup> We consider three scenarios for future public housing provision. In the first scenario (entitled ’business as usual’ or BAU), we assume that the provision of public subsidized housing follows the current pace of 5,000 dwellings per year. In the ’low’ scenario, we assume that construction of public housing is slowed down to a pace of 2,500 per year from 2019 onward. In the ’high’ scenario, we assume that construction of public housing is accelerated to a pace of 10,000 dwellings per year starting in 2019. The sites for future public housing replicate the pipeline of projects known to the City of Cape Town starting with ’short-term projects’, before considering ’long-term projects’ (see map of Figure F.13).<sup>39</sup>

> 37The demographic growth projections used in the model correspond to the base projection used by the Cape Town metropolitan authority as of 2019. The 1.77 million households in 2040 will correspond to a total population of 5.3 million inhabitants.

> 38Although government housing estates have featured in Cape Town since at least the 1920s (Wilkinson 2000), today, apartheid-era "Council housing" only includes 43,500 rental units, 21,000 homeownership dwellings, 11,000 hostel beds and 11 old-age home complexes (City of Cape Town Integrated Human Settlements 5-year Strategic Plan 2013/2014 Review).

> 39The information on projects is extracted from a 2015 data set provided by the City of Cape Town, which gives the location and number of dwellings of future RDP/BNG projects, corresponding to a total of 255 _,_ 000 dwellings to be built. We assume that projects indicated as ’short term’ will be built before 2025, while ’long term’ projects will be built from 2025 onwards.

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