ZIMBABWE‘S INFRASTRUCTURE: A CONTINENTAL PERSPECTIVE affordability of meeting the targets, which can be modified or delayed as needed to achieve financial balance. In the power sector, the targets assume that Zimbabwe will reach demand-supply balance based on its own domestic energy sources and meet national electrification targets of 52 percent. In terms of water, the targets assume that Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) will be met using the same mix of high- and low-end service types as is prevalent today. In transport, the target is to reach full connectivity of the capital city with international borders and secondary towns, as well as into agriculturally productive areas.

**Table 15. Illustrative ―ideal‖ investment targets for infrastructure in Zimbabwe**

||Economic target|Social target|
|---|---|---|
|ICT|Install fiber-optic links to neighboring capitals and<br>submarine cable.|Provide universal access to GSM signal and public<br>broadband facilities.|
|Irrigation|Develop additional 141,846 hectares of large-scale and<br>1,742 hectares ofeconomicallyviable small-scaleirrigation.|n.a.|
|Power|Develop 2,251 MW of new generation capacity and 3,072<br>MW of interconnector capacity (no-trade scenario).|Rise electrification to 51.8 percent (98.8 percent urban and<br>13.7 percent rural).|
|Transport|Achieve regional (national) connectivity with good-quality 2-<br>lane (1-lane) paved road.|Provide rural road access to 78.6 percent of the highest-<br>value agricultural land, and urban road access within 500<br>meters.|
|WSS|n.a.|Achieve Millennium Development Goals, clear sector<br>rehabilitation backlog.|

_Source:_ Mayer and others 2009; Rosnes and Vennemo 2009; Carruthers, Krishnamani, and Murray 2009; You and others 2009. _Note:_ WSS = water supply and sanitation; ICT = information and communication technology; GSM = global system for mobile communications. n.a. = Not applicable.

Meeting these illustrative ―ideal‖ infrastructure targets for Zimbabwe would cost a staggering $2 billion per year over a decade. Capital expenditure would account for 60 percent of this requirement. Meeting the growing demand for power—the sector with by far the highest spending needs—will require an estimated $1.4 billion per year to install almost 2,251 MW of new generation capacity; 3,072 MW of interconnector capacity, and around $0.3 billion to rehabilitate the power network. Capital expenditure accounts for up to 67 percent of the total power needs. The water and sanitation sector is the area with the second highest spending needs: about $0.4 billion will be needed each year to meet the MDGs, with the capital investments absorbing close to 70 percent of the needs. As in the power sector, a significant amount is required for rehabilitation—around $0.2 billion per year. Another $0.2 billion per year will be required by the transport sector. While less than the amounts needed for other infrastructures sectors, requirements for ICT and irrigation are also high in absolute terms, amounting to around $0.08 billion and $0.05 billion a year respectively.

Zimbabwe‘s infrastructure spending needs are comparatively high in absolute terms, and even more so in GDP terms—Zimbabwe‘s burden of needs at 45.7 percent of GDP<sup>15</sup> is among the highest in the region (figure 19). Investment would absorb around 40 percent of GDP, more than twice what China invested in its infrastructure during the mid-2000s.

But given the volatility of Zimbabwe‘s GDP and, in the recent past, exchange rate, the estimate of the burden of needs relative to GDP is extremely sensitive to the year for which GDP is considered. For example, if expressed as percentage of average 1995–2000 GDP, the burden of needs would amount to

> 15 Estimated 2009 GDP of $4.397 billion (IMF).

42