# Table of Contents

|Abstract ..........................................................................................**Error! Bookmark not defined.**|
|---|
|1<br>Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 4|
|2<br>Concepts and frameworks ........................................................................................................... 5|
|2.1<br>Climate terms ........................................................................................................................ 5|
|2.2<br>Impacts of climate change .................................................................................................. 6|
|2.3<br>Income fluctuations and poverty categories .................................................................... 7|
|2.4<br>The role of environmental income in rural livelihoods .................................................. 9|
|3<br>Data, methods and poverty classification ............................................................................... 10|
|3.1<br>The PEN data set ............................................................................................................... 10|
|3.2<br>Climate and forest cover data ........................................................................................... 11|
|3.3<br>Predicted income ................................................................................................................ 12|
|3.3.1 Methods ......................................................................................................................... 12|
|3.3.2 Classification into poverty categories ........................................................................ 13|
|3.4<br>Scope and limitations of study ......................................................................................... 14|
|4<br>Exposure to climate conditions, weather anomalies and self-reported shocks ................. 15|
|4.1<br>Climate conditions ............................................................................................................. 15|
|4.2<br>Weather anomalies ............................................................................................................. 16|
|4.3<br>Self-reported shocks .......................................................................................................... 18|
|5<br>Vulnerability across poverty categories ................................................................................... 19|
|5.1<br>Household income and environmental reliance ............................................................ 19|
|5.2<br>Self-reported responses to shocks ................................................................................... 23|
|5.2.1 Coping strategies across types of shocks .................................................................. 23|
|5.2.2 Coping strategies across poverty categories ............................................................. 24|
|5.3<br>Access to forest resources and resource degradation ................................................... 26|
|6<br>Summary and policy implications ............................................................................................ 29|
|6.1<br>Exposure to climate conditions and weather anomalies .............................................. 29|
|6.2<br>Adaptive and coping capacity ........................................................................................... 30|
|6.3<br>Policy relevance .................................................................................................................. 31|
|References ........................................................................................................................................... 33|
|7<br>Appendices .................................................................................................................................. 36|
|7.1<br>Variables included in the regression model to predict income .................................... 36|

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