**Annex Table 6: Effects of export slowdown on projected external DSA indicators, 2015-onward**

|||**Cape verde**<br>Max<br>deviation<br>|Length (yrs)<br>of deviation<br>|Average<br>deviation|**Guinea**<br>Max<br>deviation<br>|Length (yrs)<br>Average<br>of deviation<br>deviation<br>|**Sao Tom**<br>Max<br>deviation<br>|**e & Principe**<br>Length (yrs)<br>Average<br> of deviation<br>deviation<br><br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Baseline|PV of debt-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|275.5|16.0<br>163.9|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|6.1|10.0<br>2.3|
|After shock|<br>PV of debt-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|350.8|21.0<br>262.7|
|Worsening a|Debt service-to-exports ratio<br>fter shock<br>|0<br>Max<br>|0<br>Mean<br> <br>|Std deviation<br>|0<br>Max<br>|0<br>Mean<br>Std deviation<br><br>|17.2<br>Max<br>|21.0<br>10.2<br>Mean<br>Std deviation<br><br>|
||PV of debt-to-exports ratio|11.21|8.46|3.74|8.65|6.23<br>3.06|211.6|144.6<br>70.14|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|2.91|1.55|0.81|0.67|0.05<br>0.75|22.50|10.82<br>7.80|
|||**Cameroon**|||**Guinea-Bis**|**sau**|**Senegal**||
|||Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|
|||deviation<br>|<br>of deviation<br>|deviation|deviation<br>|<br><br>of deviation<br>deviation<br><br>|deviation<br>|<br><br> of deviation<br>deviation<br>|
|Baseline|PV of debt-to-exports ratio|0|0||21.6|4.0<br>8.9|0|0|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|0|0||0.0|0.0|0|0|
|After shock|<br>PV of debt-to-exports ratio<br>|72.12|12.00|44.20|21.6|4.0<br>9.2|0|0|
|Wi|Debt service-to-exports ratio<br>ft hk|0<br>M|0<br>M<br>|td diti|0.0<br>M|0.0<br>M<br>Std diti|0<br>M|0<br>M<br>Std diti|
|orsenng a|er soc<br>|ax<br>|ean<br> <br>|evaon<br>|ax<br>|ean<br>evaon<br><br>|ax<br>|ean<br>evaon<br><br>|
||PV of debt-to-exports ratio|119.00|57.81|40.68|14.63|7.07<br>4.97|23.40|10.62<br>7.25|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|2.84|1.43|0.95|1.20|0.43<br>0.44|1.93|0.78<br>0.64|
|||**Comoros**|||**Kenya**||**Sierra L**|**eone**|
|||Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|
|||deviation<br>|<br>of deviation<br>|deviation<br>|deviation<br>|<br><br>of deviation<br>deviation<br>|deviation<br>|<br><br> of deviation<br>deviation<br>|
|Baseline|PV of debt-to-exports ratio|86.03|13.00|41.38|0|0|0|0|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|0|0|
|After shock|<br>PV of debt-to-exports ratio|265.4|17.0|122.4|0|0|0|0|
|Wi|Debt service-to-exports ratio<br>ft hk|9.97<br>M|6.00<br>M<br>|5.07<br>td diti|0<br>M|0<br>M<br>Std diti|0<br>M|0<br>M<br>Std diti|
|orsenng a|er soc<br>|ax<br>|ean<br> <br>|evaon<br>|ax<br>|ean<br>evaon<br><br>|ax<br>|ean<br>evaon<br><br>|
||PV of debt-to-exports ratio|179.3|76.5|58.6|25.03|10.62<br>8.32|66.37|34.31<br>21.43|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|145|50|49|183|060<br>059|649|284<br>251|
|||.<br>**Congo, De**|.<br>**m. Rep.**|.|.<br>**Malawi**|.<br>.|.<br>**Togo**|.<br>.|
|||Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|
|||deviation|<br>of deviation|deviation|deviation|<br><br>of deviation<br>deviation|deviation|<br><br> of deviation<br>deviation|
|Baseline|PV of debt-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|0|0|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|0|0|
|After shock|<br>PV of debt-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|0|0|
|i|Debt service-to-exports ratio<br>f hk|0<br>M|0<br>M<br>|d dii|0<br>M|0<br>M<br>Sd dii|0<br>M|0<br>M<br>Sd dii|
|Worsenng a|ter soc<br>|ax|ean<br>|t evaton|ax|ean<br>t evaton|ax|ean<br>t evaton|
||PV of debt-to-exports ratio|12.17|7.14|4.37|9.25|4.02<br>3.06|19.11|8.12<br>6.57|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|129|053|049|005|003<br>002|197|067<br>070|
|||.<br>**Cote d' Ivoi**|.<br>**re**|.|.<br>**Mozambiqu**|.<br>.<br>**e**|.<br>**Uganda**|.<br>.|
|||Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|
|||diti|<br>f diti|diti|diti|<br><br>f diti<br>diti|diti|<br><br>f diti<br>diti|
|Baseline|PV of debt-to-exports ratio|evaon<br>0|o evaon<br>0|evaon|evaon<br>0|o evaon<br>evaon<br>0|evao<br>0|o evaon<br>evaon<br>0|
||<br>Debt service-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|0|0|
|After shock|<br>PV of debt-to-exports ratio|4.68|6.00|3.61|95.72|11.00<br>64.94|0|0|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio<br>|0<br>|0<br><br>||6.86<br>|5.00<br>4.73<br><br>|0<br>|0<br><br>|
|Worsening a|fter shock|Max|Mean<br>|td deviation|Max|Mean<br>Std deviation|Max|Mean<br>Std deviation|
||PV of debt-to-exports ratio<br>Debt service-to-exports ratio|84.80<br>8.37<br>|46.17<br>3.48|28.92<br>2.92|183.23<br>20.71<br>|100.62<br>65.54<br>7.45<br>7.52|18.62<br>1.54<br>|8.35<br>6.29<br>0.54<br>0.52|
|||**Ethiopia**<br>Max|Length (yrs)|Average|**Nigeria**<br>Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|**Zambia**<br>Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|
|||deviation|<br>of deviation|deviation|deviation|<br><br>of deviation<br>deviation|deviation|<br><br> of deviation<br>deviation|
|Baseline|PV of debt-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|0|0|
||<br>Debt service-to-exorts ratio|0|0||0|0|0|0|
|After shock<br>|p<br>PV of debt-to-exports ratio<br>Debt service-to-exports ratio<br>|6.7612<br>0<br>|3.0000<br>0<br><br>|3.7176<br>|0<br>0<br>|0<br>0<br><br>|0<br>0<br>|0<br>0<br><br>|
|Worsening a|fter shock|Max|Mean<br>|td deviation|Max|Mean<br>Std deviation|Max|Mean<br>Std deviation|
||PV of debt-to-exports ratio|52.47|35.43|16.64|24.58|5.94<br>8.77|15.575|7.534<br>5.394|
||<br>Debt service-to-exorts ratio|473|256|169|146|017<br>044|1622|0578<br>0572|
||p|.<br>**Ghana**|.|.|.<br>**Rwanda**|.<br>.|.<br>**Zimbabw**|.<br>.<br>**e**|
|||Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|Max|Length (yrs)<br>Average|
|||deviation|<br>of deviation|deviation|deviation|<br><br>of deviation<br>deviation|deviation|<br><br> of deviation<br>deviation|
|Baseline|PV of debt-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|71.21|19.00<br>27.18|
||<br>Debt service-to-exorts ratio|0|0||0|0|000|000|
|After shock|p<br>PV of debt-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|.<br>249.03|.<br>21.00<br>144.72|
||Debt service-to-exports ratio|0|0||0|0|9.72|7.00<br>4.97|
|Worsening a|<br>fter shock|Max|Mean<br>|Std deviation|Max|Mean<br>Std deviation|Max|Mean<br>Std deviation|
||PV of debt-to-exports ratio<br>Db i i|75.3<br>119|40.5<br>56|23.8<br>41|19.17<br>154|8.42<br>6.61<br>050<br>051|251.21<br>2093|120.27<br>85.31<br>697<br>753|
||et servce-to-exports rato|.|.|.|.|.<br>.|.|.<br>.|

Note: Projection horizons covered until 2033-34, depending on the whether the latest DSA was conducted in 2013 or 2014. Source: Authors’ calculations based on country DSAs.

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