of Humanitarian Affairs, 85 percent of Tajikistan’s area is threatened by mudflows; some 50,000 landslides have been reported by Tajik Glavgeology during the 1990s.<sup>4</sup> Furthermore, droughts have become increasingly common: in the past 60 years, the country has suffered eight major droughts, with the expected frequency of such disasters forecasted to increase. According to some estimates, the adverse impact of natural disasters per annum is equivalent to almost 5 percent of GDP.<sup>5</sup>

# **Impact on Agriculture**

10. With about three-fourths of Tajikistan’s population living in the countryside and heavily dependent on farming, agriculture is one of the most important livelihood sectors for the poor. About 32 percent of the total land-area in the country is used for agriculture, and much of it is exposed to the impacts of CC particularly via land degradation and erosion of fertile topsoil.<sup>6</sup> While natural pastures and hayfields play an important role in protecting soil from erosion and increasing its fertility, their productivity is dependent in turn on CC and its spatial distribution during the vegetation period. For instance, rising temperatures of 2-4C in February and March can lead to 20 percent decrease in winter-spring pasture productivity, a decline that is greatly exacerbated during dry spells. By contrast, in high mountain pastures, rising temperatures of 1.5-3C can increase pasture productivity by 25-50 percent.<sup>7</sup>

# **Health Impacts**

> 11. The 2nd National Communication (2008) includes an assessment of the impact of CC factors on public health, noting that high temperatures and drought experienced in 2001-02 contributed to increased mortality rates, with hot and arid parts of the country disproportionally affected (e.g. Khatlon region). Second, rising temperatures have contributed to the resurgence of diseases like malaria (nearly eradicated from Tajikistan in the 1960s), the number of malaria cases observed peaking in 1997 at around 30,000 cases.<sup>8</sup> Third, CC increases the likelihood of natural disasters, which in turn impact public health, both via direct disaster fatalities and via increased risk of causative agents of infectious diseases like typhoid fever, salmonellae, dysentery, amoebiasis, lambiasis, etc. getting into the food and water supply. Finally, data from the 1999, 2003, and 2007 Tajikistan Living Standards Survey (TLSS) show that access to improved water source has decreased in all regions of Tajikistan, as well as across all income groups among rural households. The major health effects of poor water quality are diarrheal morbidity and mortality, and a host of other waterborne illnesses.<sup>9</sup>

12. A recent World Bank study has warned that, contrary to popular perception, countries in the Europe and Central Asia region (ECA) are significantly threatened by climate change, with serious risks – e.g. winter floods, summer droughts, melting of glaciers, etc. – already in evidence.<sup>10</sup> The study argues that over the next two decades vulnerability and adaptive capacity of ECA countries to climate change will be dominated by socio-economic factors and legacy issues. The report presents a

> 4 United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (2006) UNDAC Mission Disaster Response Preparedness in Tajikistan, March 12-27, 2006 http://www.unep.or.jp/ietc/DM/Final_Report_UNDAC_Tajikistan.pdf 5 As cited in _Poverty Reduction Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2010-2012_ .

> 6 Tajikistan, First National Communication to the UNFCCC (2003), page 65.

> 7 Tajikistan, First National Communication to the UNFCCC (2003)

> 8 However, according to data from the British NGO Merlin, the number of reported cases of malaria in Tajikistan has fallen considerably, to less than 3,000 reported cases per year over the period 2005-2007.

> 9 World Bank Country Environmental Assessment, page 36.

> 10 World Bank (2009) _Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia_ Office of the Chief Economist of the Europe and Central Asia region, World Bank Washington DC.

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