(5) in error terms between any two periods for a district. To explore heterogeneity, I estimate where _Xot_ represents the variable of interest.

# **4 Results and discussion**

In this section, I present the results of estimating the equations on various measures of migration, prices and job composition. The first part of this section tests whether potential migrants are fully informed about migrant death rate by examining the impact of death incidences on subsequent migration flows. The second part of this section checks whether prices and job composition responds locally following a migrant death. Note that these changes are local and will only capture changes in prices and job composition within origin district-destination cells. The third part of this section tests whether potential migrants understand that the migrant deaths are generated by an i.i.d process.

Recent migrant deaths in the origin district- destination cell matter in how responsive potential migrants are to a current migrant death. A change in responsiveness based on recent death rules out some hypotheses. In particular, it rules out that potential migrants are Bayesian who believe that migrant deaths are generated by an i.i.d process.

## **4.1 Does migrant death affect subsequent migration flows?**

The event study specification shows that migrant death in an origin district - destination cell suppresses migration flow in the same cell in the subsequent months (Figure 6, top left plot). I cannot reject the null that migration flows in the cell do not exhibit a trend in the months preceding the death event. As the plot shows, migration flow starts to drop after the migrant death. In particular, the drop becomes large after 3 months and continues to stay low even 12 months after the death. The lag could be a result of the delay it takes for the information about migrant death to spread, or because the news may not be effective in changing the migration decision of those who have already made all the preparations and investments to migrate.

There is also evidence of some substitution to other destinations following migrant death in an origin district - destination cell (Figure 6, top right plot). Here as well, I cannot reject the null that migration flows to destinations other than that of migrant death do not exhibit a trend in months preceding the death. As the plot shows, migration flows to other destinations start to rise after the migrant death. The magnitude of these effects (expressed in logarithm of migration outflow per district per destination per month) in this case are, however, lower than the effect on the same destination.

Migrant death in a district has spillover effects to neighboring districts (Figure 6, bottom two plots). The migration flows in neighboring districts (expressed in logarithm of flow per district per destination per month) respond in similar way to a migrant death in an origin district - destination cell. That is, in response to a migrant death in an origin district - destination cell, migrant flows from neighboring districts to the same destination fall and migration flows from neighboring districts to other destinations slightly increase.

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