first differences are estimates of how much _π_ ˆ would change given a particular change in an explanatory variable, while holding the other variables in the equation constant. We hold interval-scaled covariates at their mean levels and categorical variables at their modal levels.

We present predicted probabilities and first differences with confidence intervals reflecting the estimation and fundamental uncertainty of the point predictions including the random errors. We graphically present the first differences and the uncertainty around these estimates in coefficient plots. In these plots, the first differences are reflected as dark circles and the horizontal lines represent the simulated 95% confidence intervals.

# **5.1 Model 1: 2007 and 2008**

We now turn to the discussion of the results of Model 1, which pools data from 2007 and 2008 (see Table 1).<sup>12</sup> Table 2 and Figure 9 show the effect of a change in our explanatory variables from low to high on views about the trustworthiness of local government officials for 2007, 2008 and the change from 2007 to 2008, respectively.

To summarize, the quality of decentralized service delivery, especially health care and the registration of deaths, is associated with beliefs about the trustworthiness of local councillors over time. The impact of councillors’ honesty on evaluations of councillors as trustworthy is greatest for respondents who live the farthest away from their district headquarters and in the least populated areas. Moreover, the greater the knowledge of local council projects, the more likely citizens are to view them as trustworthy. Individuals who have interacted with their councillor are more likely to view their councillor as trustworthy. The same is true for respondents, who know the name of their local councillor. We also find that the presence of service-delivery NGOs is positively correlated with trustworthy councillors. There is no evidence that councils’ administrative competence is correlated with citizens’ beliefs about councillors’ trustworthiness. Finally, consistent with our expectations, we find that the more communities were impacted by violence during the civil war, the more likely community members are to view their elected local government councillors as trustworthy.

## **5.1.1 Explanatory Variables**

We now discuss these empirical relationships in turn. Perceptions of the quality of decentralized service delivery are positively associated with trustworthy local government officials over time. The higher the quality of health care, the more likely individuals are to view local government officials as trustworthy. Compared to respondents who live in a community with a health clinic that is run by an NGO or a mission, respondents who live in a community with a government-run health facility are more likely to view local government councillors as trustworthy. In 2007 and in 2008, the presence of a government health facility or hospital corresponds to a percentage point increase of 6 and 7 percentage points, respectively, in the

> 12We only include the regression results for two model specifications: the first includes an indicator of satisfaction with health care delivery and local government honesty; the second includes an indicator of satisfaction with education and whether the respondent interacted with a local councillor over the past year. Other regression results are available upon request.

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