# **Annex Table 2**

|**Public Sector Debt Sustainab**<br>(in perce|**ility Ana**<br>nt of GDP un|**lysis (**<br>less othe|**DSA) -**<br>rwise indi|**Base**<br>cated)|**line S**|**cena**|j<br>**rio f**|**or S**|**SA**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||2006-2011|2012|2013|2014|2015|2016|2017|2018|2019|
|Public sector debt|50.4|42.9|43.5|45.5|45.0|44.3|43.4|42.4|41.1|
|o/w foreign-currency denominated|38.3|30.0|30.3|32.5|32.6|32.5|32.1|31.5|30.7|
|Change in gross public sector debt|-7.8|-0.6|0.6|2.0|-0.5|-0.7|-0.9|-1.1|-1.2|
|Identified debt-creating flows|-8.7|-0.8|-0.2|0.6|-1.4|-1.3|-1.6|-1.5|-1.8|
|Primary deficit|0.1|1.9|1.8|2.2|1.6|1.1|1.0|0.9|0.6|
|Primary (noninterest) revenue and grants|22.7|23.4|23.1|23.2|23.5|23.8|23.8|23.7|23.5|
|Primary (noninterest) expenditure|22.8|25.4|24.9|25.4|25.1|24.9|24.8|24.6|24.1|
|Automatic debt dynamics|-5.0|-1.7|-1.8|-1.6|-2.4|-2.4|-2.6|-2.4|-2.3|
|Interest rate/growth differential|-3.6|-2.7|-1.3|-2.1|-2.3|-2.2|-2.4|-2.3|-2.2|
|Of which: real interest rate|-1.1|-0.4|-0.1|0.2|0.2|0.3|0.3|0.2|0.2|
|Of which: real GDP growth|-2.6|-2.3|-1.2|-2.3|-2.5|-2.5|-2.7|-2.5|-2.4|
|Exchange rate depreciation|-1.4|1.0|-0.4|0.4|-0.1|-0.2|-0.2|-0.1|-0.1|
|Other identified debt-creating flows|-3.9|-1.0|-0.2|0.0|-0.6|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Privatization receipts (negative)|-0.3|-0.1|-0.1|-0.2|-0.1|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Contingent liabilities|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.2|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Debt relief (HIPC and other)|-3.6|-1.0|-0.1|0.0|-0.5|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Residual, including asset changes<br>Source: Authors' calculations based on 33 SSA countries D|0.9<br>SAs done by IMF|0.2<br>and Worl|0.8<br>d Bank staff.|1.5|0.9|0.6|0.7|0.5|0.5|

# **Annex Table 3**

## **External Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) - Baseline Scenario for SSA**

(in percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

|2|006-2011|2012|2013|2014|2015|2016|2017|2018|2019|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**External debt (nominal)**<sup>**1/**</sup>|43.7|36.4|37.4|40.0|40.9|41.2|41.4|41.3|40.8|
|Of which: public and publicly guaranteed (PPG)|38.1|29.7|30.1|32.1|32.2|32.2|31.8|31.2|30.5|
|Change in external debt|-7.8|0.1|1.0|2.6|0.8|0.4|0.1|-0.1|-0.5|
|Identified net debt-creating flows|-3.0|4.1|3.2|3.0|2.6|1.6|0.8|1.0|0.7|
|**Non-interest current account deficit**|6.9|11.7|11.1|11.4|10.7|10.2|9.4|8.9|8.0|
|Deficit in balance of goods and services|10.6|14.2|14.3|14.4|13.2|12.2|11.2|10.8|9.6|
|Exports|27.8|30.1|29.5|29.4|29.3|29.5|30.0|30.3|30.2|
|Imports|38.5|44.3|43.8|43.7|42.5|41.7|41.3|41.1|39.7|
|Net current transfers (negative = inflow)|-8.4|-8.1|-8.2|-7.8|-7.5|-7.1|-6.8|-6.6|-6.4|
|Of which: official|-3.7|-3.2|-3.2|-3.0|-2.8|-2.5|-2.3|-2.3|-2.2|
|Other current account flows (negative = net inflow)|4.6|5.7|5.0|4.8|5.0|5.1|4.9|4.7|4.8|
|**Net FDI (negative = inflow)**|-5.5|-6.7|-6.4|-6.5|-6.2|-6.1|-5.8|-5.1|-4.6|
|**Endogenous debt dynamics**<sup>**/2**</sup>|-4.4|-0.9|-1.6|-1.9|-1.9|-2.5|-2.8|-2.8|-2.6|
|Contribution from nominal interest rate|0.8|0.6|0.6|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|
|Contribution from real GDP growth|-2.1|-2.0|-1.3|-1.9|-2.1|-2.2|-2.4|-2.4|-2.3|
|Contribution from price and exchange rate changes|-3.1|0.5|-0.9|-0.7|-0.5|-1.0|-1.1|-1.1|-1.0|
|**Residual**<sup>**/3**</sup>|-4.9|-4.0|-2.2|-0.4|-1.7|-1.2|-0.6|-1.1|-1.3|
|of which: exceptional financing|-1.7|-2.4|-0.4|-0.3|0.2|-0.3|-0.3|-0.2|-0.2|

Source: Authors' calculations based on 33 SSA countries DSAs done by IMF and World Bank staff.

1/ Includes both public and private sector external debt.

2/ Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.

3/ Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.

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