rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
TABLE 4: Impact of text messages on intermediate outcomes

||(1)<br>Nutrition|(2)<br>Stimulation|(3)<br>Health|(4)<br>Micronutrients|(5)<br>Proteins|(6)<br>Attitudes|(7)<br>Hygiene|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_Panel A. ITT_||||||||
|ITT|0,06<br>(0,04)|0,16<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>(0,04)|0,07<sup>_∗_</sup><br>(0,04)|0,08<sup>_∗_</sup><br>(0,04)|0,06<br>(0,04)|0,11<sup>_∗∗_</sup><br>(0,04)|0,09<sup>_∗∗_</sup><br>(0,04)|
|_Panel B. By treatment variation (thematic focus)_||||||||
|Nutrition & Stimulation|0,01|0,20<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0,11<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0,05|0,04|0,16<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0,08|
||(0,05)|(0,05)|(0,05)|(0,05)|(0,05)|(0,06)|(0,05)|
|Nutrition|0,10<sup>_∗∗_</sup><br>(0,05)|0,05<br>(0,05)|0,00<br>(0,05)|0,13<sup>_∗∗_</sup><br>(0,05)|0,07<br>(0,05)|-0,02<br>(0,06)|0,09<sup>_∗_</sup><br>(0,05)|
|Stimulation|0,08|0,23<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0,08|0,03|0,06|0,19<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0,10<sup>_∗_</sup>|
||(0,05)|(0,05)|(0,05)|(0,06)|(0,05)|(0,06)|(0,05)|
|Observations|2500|2501|2512|2495|2501|2396|2506|
|**P-values Statistical Signifcance Test**||||||||
|Nutrition & Stimulation = Nutrition|0.14|0.00|0.02|0.15|0.52|0.00|0.94|
|Nutrition & Stimulation = Stimulation|0.25|0.58|0.10|0.81|0.70|0.56|0.66|
|Stimulation = Nutrition|0.76|0.00|0.57|0.10|0.80|0.00|0.71|

_Note:_ All outcome variables are standardized using the mean and standard deviation of the control households. The first 6 columns show ITT estimates on indices aggregating information regarding early childhood investments, as reported by the caregiver. Column 7 aggregates information regarding hygiene of the child, as observed by the enumerator. Impacts on each of the individual items used to construct the indices are reported in tables A10, A11, A12. All the regressions include controls for the stratification variables, child age and gender, enumerator fixed effects, and a dummy variable for a set of households surveyed in 2016, as well as village fixed effects. Standard errors reported in parentheses.<sup>_∗_</sup> p<0.1,<sup>_∗∗_</sup> p<0.05,<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup> p<0.01 38
firms. We use the unique microdata to study how the firm credit distribution aggregates into macroeconomic outcomes.

We find that the programs give different incentives to firms. Riskier firms are more likely to obtain a credit guarantee loan, while risk is not associated with the likelihood of utilizing the employment program. On the other hand, firms facing negative sales growth are more likely to use the employment program. Likewise, firms subject to lockdowns are more likely to use the employment program, whereas lockdowns seem irrelevant for the credit program. Overall, this evidence suggests that firms internalize the opportunity cost of using the employment program, which covers the salaries of employees who cannot work due to declining sales or restricted local mobility. Sending employees home imposes a cost on the firm because it has to reduce its operations. In contrast, the credit program has no such opportunity cost, leading to a much broader adoption. However, its low interest rates and government guarantees appear to be related to riskier firms using the credit program.

The fact that the credit and employment programs coexist has consequences for their adoption. Both programs are used jointly, i.e., increasing the probability of using one program increases the chances of using the other. Firms facing both positive and negative sales growth and riskier firms are more likely to use both programs, while the effect is stronger for firms facing a negative sales growth shock. Also, using both programs mitigates the increase in firm indebtedness as firms need less credit when they receive employment benefits. In addition, using the employment program might signal firms that are in distress or that need to scale down operations. As a result, the availability of the employment program increases the quality of borrowers by helping banks screen firms for the credit program.

In terms of risk and selection at the micro level, both the demand and supply sides play a role in the credit allocation in equilibrium, with demand factors driving the expansion of indebtedness. The allocation of credit is characterized by a shift in lending toward riskier firms, which is observed in both the extensive margin (selection into the program by riskier firms) and the intensive margin (increases in indebtedness, especially among riskier firms). On the demand side, riskier firms are more likely to apply for guaranteed loans. On the supply side, they are less likely to be approved, indicating that bank screening mitigates the allocation of guaranteed loans to riskier firms. Banks are more sensitive to risk when evaluating credit applications from larger firms, which are less covered by credit guarantees and would entail a more significant loss for banks in case of default.

At the macro level, we compute the credit allocation to formal firms with different risk profiles and calculate an aggregate expected loss of 0.27% of GDP for the baseline scenario, 2
|PPR|Working Paper Series|||
|---|---|---|---|
|Title|Author|Date|<br>Contact|
|WPS107 A Review of World Bank Lending for<br>Electric Power|Mohan Munasinghe<br>Joseph Gilling<br>Melody Mason|||
|WPS108 Some Considerations<br>in Collecting<br>Data<br>on Household Energy Consumption|L. Leitmann|||
|WPS109 Improving Power System Efficiency in<br>the Developing Countries Through<br>Performance<br>Contracting|Philip Yates|||
|WPSIIO Impact of Lower Oil Prices on<br>Renewable Energy Technologies|E. Terrado<br>M. Mendis<br>K. Fitzgerald|||
|WPSI11 Recent World Bank Activities in Energy|<br>Industry<br>and Energy<br>Department|||
|WPS112 A Visual Overview of the World Oil<br>Markets|Kay McKeough<br>Jose Escay<br>Sompheap Sem|||
|WPS113 Public Sector Pay and Employment<br>Policy Issues in Bank Lending: An<br>Interim<br>Review of Experience|Barbara Nunberg|||
|WPS114 Africa Region Population<br>Projections<br>1988-89 edition|My T. Vu<br>Eduard Bos<br>Rodolfo A. Bulatao|October|1988<br>S. Ainsworth<br>31091|
|WPS115 Asia Region Population<br>Projections||||
|1988-89 edition|My T. Vu<br>Eduard Bos|October|1988<br>S. Ainsworth<br>31091|
||Rodolfo A. Bulatao|||
|WPS116 Latin America and the Caribbean<br>Region Population<br>Projections||||
|1988-89<br>edition|My T. Vu<br>Eduard Bos<br>Rodolfo A. Bulatao|October|1988<br>S. AinsworTh<br>31091|
|WPS117 Europe, Middle East, and North Africa<br>Region Population<br>Projections||||
|1988-89<br>edition|My T. Vu|October|1988<br>S. Ainsworth|
||Eduard Bos<br>Rodolfo A. Bulatao||31091|
Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4633

# **Abstract**

Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption.

This paper—a product of the Policy Review Unit, Development Economics Vice-Presidency—is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze the effects of public policy and its relationship with consumption volatility in developing countries. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at sherrera@worldbank.org, bruno.vincent@polytechnique.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
# Appendix 6: Model with sample selection correction Table 40

|Dependent variable: Fiscal adj|ustment w|hen neede|d based on|Escolano e|t al.(2014)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Variables|(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|
|Rigid expenditure|0.020**|0.027**|0.035*|-0.010|0.038|
|(% of GDP)|(0.009)|(0.013)|(0.018)|(0.017)|(0.023)|
|**Economic factors**||||||
|GDP growth (t-1)|-7.068**|-5.267*|-6.461**|-5.847*|-6.908**|
||(3.007)|(3.067)|(3.015)|(3.022)|(2.977)|
|Inflation (t-1)|-1.174|-0.506|-0.937|-0.046|-1.107|
||(0.988)|(1.223)|(1.054)|(1.123)|(0.973)|
|U.S. Interest rate|-0.107***|-0.107***|-0.116***|-0.121***|-0.104***|
||(0.036)|(0.034)|(0.034)|(0.036)|(0.036)|
|**Political factors**||||||
|Gini|0.020***|0.016**|0.031**|0.017**|0.021***|
||(0.007)|(0.006)|(0.012)|(0.007)|(0.008)|
|Rule of law|0.001|0.030|0.013|-0.171*|0.002|
||(0.057)|(0.051)|(0.056)|(0.094)|(0.057)|
|Margin of Majority|0.852**|0.622|0.795**|0.689*|1.514*|
||(0.387)|(0.382)|(0.368)|(0.389)|(0.890)|
|**Interactions**||||||
|EMEs||0.619||||
|||(0.441)||||
|EMEs * Rigidity||-0.018<br>(0.012)||||
|Gini * Rigidity|||-0.000<br>(0.001)|||
|Rule of law * Rigidity||||0.007**<br>(0.003)||
|Majority * Rigidity|||||-0.029|
||||||(0.027)|
|lambda|0.668**|0.477|0.591*|0.521*|0.659**|
||(0.307)|(0.309)|(0.308)|(0.310)|(0.308)|
|Constant|-2.163**|-2.081**|-2.427***|-1.053|-2.635**|
||(0.839)|(1.001)|(0.693)|(0.999)|(1.173)|
|Observations|163|163|163|163|163|
|R-squared|0.120|0.153|0.149|0.152|0.120|
|CountryFE|No|No|No|No|No|
|Standard errors in parenthese|s|||||
|*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1||||||

- 69 -
28 We computed ex-post real interest rates for the deposit, lending and treasury bill rates when available.' The data shows that all types of real interest rates decreased in Denmark but increased in Ireland and France.

Figure 14. **Ireland: Ex-post Real interest Rates** (annualized). **Source: IMFIFS.** <!-- Start of picture text --> 0 1 TBII<br>0 05<br>-0.15<br>-0s os It<br>s0 81 n2 2 S. 8s a6 to<br><!-- End of picture text --> The behavior of real wages is consistent with that of the real interest rate. While real wages fell in Denmark post-stabilization, the opposite happened in France and Ireland. The behavior of real wages 2The formula used was the following: where r is the ex-post real interest rate and i is the nominal interest rate.

2 This effect might be only part of the explanation. Monetary policy might also explain this difference between real interest rates. We tried to see if monetary policy was contractionary in France and Ireland, and if that could explain the apparent rise in interest rates. When we normalized the real growth of money to take account for GDP growth, we could not get any conclusive evidence.
**Table 11** Simulated Business Cycle Volatilities from the Open Economy Model

This table compares absolute and relative business cycle volatilities from the simulated model for the pre- and post-reform period with the pattern observed in the data. The absolute volatilities are in percentage (%). The relative standard deviations are in percentage.

|||St|d. dev.|||Rel. std. d|ev.|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Y|C|I|_TB_<br>_Y_|C|I|_TB_<br>_Y_|
|Data||||||||
|Pre-<br>reform|2.17|1.86|5.26|0.92|0.86|2.42|0.42|
|Post-<br>reform|1.94|1.99|5.18|1.24|1.03|2.67|0.64|
|Model||||||||
|Pre-<br>reform|1.48|2.14|6.63|2.75|1.44|4.48|1.86|
|Post-<br>reform|1.51|2.94|6.43|3.46|1.95|4.26|2.29|

_Source_ : Authors’ analysis outlined in the Financial Development, Permanent Income Shock, and Relative Consumption Volatility in a Small Open Econmy section 50
controlling for individual-level selection by instrumental variable, urban couples are even less likely to have three or more children if they were parent-matched (marginally signicant at 10%), but rural couples are much more likely to have three or more children under parental matchmaking (signicant at 1%). This is consistent with the argument that since rural households have little access to state-provided pension and health insurance, they have to rely heavily on children for old age support.

# 5 Conclusion

While many economic studies have examined various aspects of marriages, little attention has been paid to the role that parents play in their children's marriage formation, to how various matchmaking means aect the selection of spouse and marriage outcomes, and to how institutional dierences such as the provision of old age support aect the eect of matchmaking means. In this paper, we use unique data on Chinese households to examine what types of people use parental matchmaking (versus relying on self matches), and how parental matchmaking aects marriage harmony, joint income, and husband and wife traits that are conducive to the delivery of old age support.

In a simple theoretical framework, we show that parental matchmaking may distort the son's optimal spouse selection because parents tend to emphasize a potential wife's ability and temperament for providing sharable household goods, and downplay the love or emotional chemistry within the couple. Put dierently, relative to the son, parents are more willing to substitute love between the couple for sharable household production. We further interpret this model in light of parental need for old age support, following BMS (2015).

We nd supporting evidence for the model: parental involvement is negatively associated with marital harmony; in comparison, it is associated with more submissive wives, who play a key role in delivering home services for elderly parents. We also nd suggestive evidence that urban and rural areas use dierent supporting mechanisms for old age support. In urban areas, with more labor market opportunities and more stringent enforcement of the one-child policy, parents rely more on the monetary income channel for ensuring old age support, and as a result, parental matchmaking is associated with higher joint couple income. In contrast, in rural areas, labor market opportunities are fewer and it is easier to evade the one-child policies. As a result, parents rely more on household production for ensuring old age support, and rural wives are found to have lower schooling but be more submissive under parental matchmaking than under self match. Joint income is also lower for parent matched couples than for self-matched couples in rural areas. These rural-urban contrasts in behavior, along with the nding that sons and daughters-in-law tend to have traits and beliefs that are 26
Evans, Peter, and James E. Rauch. 1999. “Bureaucracy and Growth: A Cross-National Analysis of the Effects of ‘Weberian’ State Structures on Economic Growth.” _American Sociological Review_ 64: 748 − 65.

- Faguet, Jean-Paul. 2004. “Does Decentralization Increase Government Responsiveness to Local Needs? Evidence from Bolivia.” _Journal of Public Economics_ 88: 867 − 93.

- Hasnain, Zahid. 2011. “Incentive Compatible Reforms: The Political Economy of Public Investments in Mongolia.” Policy Research Working Paper Series No. 5667, World Bank, Washington, DC.

- Hausmann, Ricardo, Bailey Klinger, and Rodrigo Wagner. 2008. “Doing Growth Diagnostics in Practice: A ‘Mindbook’.” Center for International Development Working Paper No. 177, Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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- Pierskalla, J. Henryk, Zahid Hasnain, and Nick Manning. 2012. “Pay Flexibility in the Public Sector: A Review of Theory and Evidence.” Policy Working Paper No. 6043, World Bank, Washington, DC.

43
- Heong, K. L., M. M. Escalada and A. A. Lazaro 1995.  Misuse of Pesticidas among Rice Farmers in Leyte, Philippines.  In: _Impact of Pesticides on Farmer Health and the Rice Environment_ . (P. L. Pingali and P. A. Roger, eds.). Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston. pp. 97-108.

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17
**FIGURE 1**

# **Output Growth' and Market Regulation**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 12 -<br>\ a ~~Ireland'<br>10 - ----- :-- '---- -- -<br>Brtain<br>-mark<br>8- \ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Portugal;<br>Belgium Germany<br>0 6 - - - - - - -- -<br>A '. Spain<br>Italy<br>Netherlands<br>France<br>2 --- -------------------<br>0I<br>0 2 4 6 8 10 12<br>Ranking in Overall Market Regulation<br><!-- End of picture text --> a Real growth per person, annual average 1981-93

> bReal output growth in the market sector, per capita 15-64, annual average growth 1981-93. Ranking by increasing growth rate (1=lowest growth). The linear regression is also shown.

Source: Koedijk and Kreemers (1996)
The project also had limited impact on improving handwashing practices among school-going children. We found no systematic impact of the BCC campaign on promoting the use of soap after defecation. GPs where intensive school campaigns were conducted showed positive significant improvements in use of soaps before eating in the full sample as well as in both sub-samples of households with and without access to toilets. However, the BCC campaign’s impact on using soap before eating on other treatment arms was mostly insignificant. That said, DID estimates indicate that the project, overall, had a positive significant impact on the use of soap before eating, especially among households with access to toilets at the baseline.

Our results also indicate a possible incremental impact of intensive school awareness campaigns and intensive follow-up campaigns, though we did not find any statistically significant differential impact of either of these interventions. Awareness of the importance of handwashing before eating and after defecation was relatively higher among school-going children in GPs where intensive school awareness campaigns had been conducted. A significantly larger proportion of children from these GPs also reported using soap before eating. GPs that received the intensive follow-up campaign also witnessed the largest increase in safely managed facilities, and larger proportion of households without initial access to toilets in these GPs reported having toilets under construction. While a reduction in open defecation was mostly observed among households who had access to toilets at the baseline, GPs receiving intensive follow-up campaigns also saw a reduction in open defecation among households without access to toilets at the baseline.

# 7. Conclusion

The present study is one of the first rigorous impact evaluations of India’s flagship sanitation program, the Swachh Bharat Mission–Gramin. The study used a multiple-arm, cluster randomized control design to assess the short-run effects of the program as implanted in rural Punjab, India on the construction of toilets, the practice of open defecation, and beneficiaries’ hygiene-related awareness and practices. The study found that the program was successful in increasing the coverage of safely managed toilets and led to a decline in open defecation among rural households in project intervention areas. A significant reduction in open defecation was observed among households that already had toilets. The effect was less pronounced among households without toilets, which were also the primary targets of the program. Since the midline survey was conducted immediately after project completion, many households whose toilets had just been completed might not yet have had time to get habituated to using them. Moreover, many other households were still in the process of seeing their toilets constructed. So, the potential impact of the program on toilet construction and open defecation is likely to increase over time. Interestingly, GPs with intensive follow-up campaigns achieved a significant reduction in open 36