**_Energy demand models for policy_** **_<u>formulation</u>_**

# **Table of Contents**

|Table of Contents................................................................................................................ 2<br>|
|---|
|List of tables........................................................................................................................ 3|
|List of figures...................................................................................................................... 4|
|List of boxes........................................................................................................................ 5|
|Acronyms and Definitions.................................................................................................. 6<br>|
|1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 8|
|2. Energy Demand Modeling Issues from Developing Countries’ Perspective ............... 11|
|2.1 Specific features of developing countries............................................................... 11|
|2.2 Considerations for energy demand modeling ......................................................... 14|
|3. Understanding Energy Demand.................................................................................... 16|
|3.1 Economic foundations of energy demand............................................................... 17|
|3.1.1 Household energy demand............................................................................... 17|
|3.1.2 Industrial and commercial energy demand...................................................... 19|
|3.1.3 Transport energy demand ................................................................................ 20|
|3.2 Energy demand forecasting techniques .................................................................. 24|
|3.2.1 Simple approaches ........................................................................................... 25|
|3.2.2 Sophisticated approaches................................................................................. 28|
|4. Energy demand modeling in practice ........................................................................... 42|
|4.1 Aggregate energy demand forecasting.................................................................... 42|
|4.1.1 Primary energy demand forecasting ................................................................ 43|
|4.1.2 Sector or fuel-level aggregate studies.............................................................. 47|
|4.2 Energy demand forecasting at the sector level ....................................................... 49|
|4.2.1 Industrial energy demand................................................................................. 49|
|4.2.2 Transport energy demand ................................................................................ 59|
|4.2.3 Residential demand.......................................................................................... 69|
|4.2.4 Commercial sector ........................................................................................... 75|
|5. Features of Specific Energy Demand Forecasting Models........................................... 76|
|5.1 Brief descriptions of selected energy demand models............................................ 77|
|5.1.1 Country-specific models.................................................................................. 77|
|5.1.2 Generic energy forecasting models.................................................................. 82|
|5.1.3<br>Energy forecasting as part of an integrated model.................................... 85|
|5.2 Comparison of selected energy demand models..................................................... 89|
|6. Policy Implications for Developing Countries ............................................................. 93|
|7. Concluding Remarks..................................................................................................... 96|
|References......................................................................................................................... 98|
|Appendix 1: Review of Energy System Models............................................................. 123|
|A1.1 Evolution............................................................................................................ 123|
|A1.2 Categorisation .................................................................................................... 127|
|A1.3 Model comparison.............................................................................................. 129|
|A1.3.1 Model description ....................................................................................... 129|
|A1.4 Model comparison.............................................................................................. 144|

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