47 Sinhalese in Sri Lanka and India's attempts to mediate the dispute, (10) political problems among Bengalis, Sikhs and other groups in India, (11) the recent assassination in Pakistan, the installation of a new government, and ethnic violence in that country, (12) demonstrations and floods in Bangladesh, (13) internal strife in Myanmar that led to the resignation of Ne Win, (14) continuing refugee flows from Indo-China and Afghanistan, and (15) the cease fire between Iran and Iraq and possible overtures by Iran to improve its external relations with Europe and the United States.

The lack of sound data, uncertainties about economic growth, and emerging political developments make it very difficult to predict the future course of international migration in most Asian and Pacific countries. Fortunately, there are few Asian countries whose total population size will be vitally affected by international migration flows or by mistakes in estimating or predicting those flows. Relevant information and suggestions about estimates and projections for selected Asia/Pacific countries are outlined below.

# Hong Kong

The impending political changes in Hong Kong make the future course of migration particularly difficult to predict. Although the initial jitters regarding the return of Hong Kong to China calmed down for a while, recent developments have raised new concerns. Future political twists and turns in China itself will undoubtedly send shock waves through Hong Kong as well. Many Hong Kong residents are already making "escape plans" by obtaining immigrant visas for other countries or making sure they qualify for such visas if they decide to apply for them later. Moreover, it is not clear how many officials and others from China will eventually take up residence in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong's geographical isolation and excellent statistical systems should provide reasonable immigration statistics. However, even the current international migration situation is difficult to gauge because of illegal immigration and the large number of residents who have received immigrant visas for in other countries but continue to actually live in Hong Kong. According to the 1981 census, Hong Kong had over two million foreign-born residents, more than 90 percent of whom were from China. Other immigrants came primarily from Southeast Asia (87,125), the United Kingdom (21,178), South Asia (11,278), Japan (7,869) and the United States (6,586). Since the British government reached the agreement with China to return Hong Kong to its control, however, there has been an exodus of British citizens.

On an average day, the Hong Kong government catches and repatriates about 100 illegal Chinese immigrants. It is estimated that 75 new illegal Chinese immigrants per day evade detection. That works out to 27,375 per year or 136,875 over a five-year period. The current labor shortage in Hong Kong may attract further immigrants. Although Hong Kong's economy has slowed after two years of double-digit growth, there are still major shortages of construction workers, factory workers, and service workers. This shortage has caused a rapid rise in wage levels. Unemployment has dropped from 3.2 percent