rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
2009, aggregating the case-level data to each hospital-month-level.<sup>9</sup> Only hospitals with enough month-level observations over the 2002-2009 period were kept, resulting in a total sample of 11,861 hospital-month-level observations across all 5 procedures.

The ITS regressions confirm some of the descriptive statistic results (see Table 3). Each column of each panel represents one regression, and the reported coefficients and standard errors are for the linear combinations of PPTP ( _β4_ + _β5*48)_ and DTS ( _β2_ + _β3*12_ ) described earlier.<sup>10</sup> The most significant results are for pneumonia and appendectomy. For pneumonia (Col 2), there is a statistically significant reduction in ALOS of 3 days associated with the PPTP period (2005-2008), and a significant increase of almost 1.5 days associated with the DTS period (2009). At the same time, there was a reduction of almost 9 cases for the average Croatian hospital performing pneumonia procedures under the PPTP period, and an increase of ~13 cases under the DTS period. Similarly, there was a substantial reduction in ALOS for appendectomy (Col 4) by ~1.3 days under PPTP and a continued decline of about 1 day under DTS. Under PPTP, the volume of cases actually increased for appendectomy but decreased under DTS. Taking the PPTP and DTS results together (Total effect of DRG reforms), the results suggest that the introduction of case-based payment systems from 20052009 reduced ALOS for pneumonia and appendectomy procedures by over 2 days, and led to little change in the volume of cases. ALOS also declined for bypass, although the complexity of bypass surgeries results in less precision for this estimate. There was little change in ALOS from 2005-2009 for cataracts or hip replacement as both were already experience declining ALOS.

# **Quality – Readmissions**

Although attribution to the introduction of PPTP or DTS is difficult, efficiency has improved in hospitals as Table 3 shows declining ALOS over time for all five procedures. Given that efficiency has improved, it is important to prevent any unintended consequences of decreasing quality. To examine any effects on hospital quality, we collected additional data on readmissions within 2 weeks of the original procedure over the 2008-2009 period for two procedures: appendectomy and hip replacement. Readmissions can reflect hospital

> 9 The estimated coefficients are similar if the full 10 year period is used. Since PPTP was first introduced in 2002, using the full 10 year period of data requires estimating the impact separately of the 2002-2004 initial PPTP period as well. Beginning the data analysis at 2002 increases the precision of the analysis, but the results are similar with either approach.

> 10 The actual regression coefficients are available from the authors upon request.

8
Policy Research Working Paper 10662

# **Abstract**

While the travelers’ gender has not been a central consideration driving urban mobility planning, increasing evidence points to gender-differentiated mobility preferences and behaviors. This paper explores this topic in the context of the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area, aiming to identify policy relevant differences between the mobility of women and men. It does so by leveraging mobile phone–based data, combined with existing household travel survey data and an original large-scale interception survey implemented in late 2021 and early 2022. The paper provides descriptive analysis of key spatial and temporal mobility patterns as well as implements statistical analysis to identify whether gender represented a key determinant of mode choice in the context of the pandemic. The analysis finds that women in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area travel less, tend to have shorter individual trips, and are much more likely than men to travel during off-peak hours, including due to disproportionately taking on “care mobility” responsibilities. In terms of mode choices, women represent the majority of public transport users and are more likely than men to say they would cycle. However, women’s share among public transport users and their actual cycling and walking appear to be spatially correlated with, respectively, the availability of public transport services and dedicated, safe infrastructure. The travel responses to the pandemic documented in the original survey data also suggest that women are more likely than men to switch from public transport to private motorized modes as soon as their incomes allow them to unless appropriate health safety measures are put in place.

This paper is a product of the Transport Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at astokenberga@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 2b. Concentration curves of NMR, IMR and U5MR<br>(2000-2014)<br>NMR IMR U5MR<br>0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1<br>cumulative proportion: births cumulative proportion: births cumulative proportion: births<br>Earlier Survey Latest Survey Earlier Survey Latest Survey Earlier Survey Latest Survey<br>Line of Equality Line of Equality Line of Equality<br>1 1 1<br>.8 .8 .8<br>.6 .6 .6<br>.4 .4 .4<br>.2 .2 .2<br>cumulative proportion: neonatal deaths0 cumulative proportion: infant deaths0 cumulative proportion: under-five deaths0<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: Computed from DHS 2000 (Earlier Survey) & DHS 2014 (Latest Survey). Values in the horizontal axis are ranked by wealth.

Figure 2c illustrates the movement of wealth-related inequalities in maternal health services and child immunizations. The curves, in both the earlier and latest surveys, are below the line of equality indicating the presence of pro-rich inequality in using these services. However, for all the MNCH services, the movement of the indexes and the curves illustrate progression towards the line of equality. For a given survey year, the CIs are smaller compared with the values in an earlier survey (Table 5). However, the magnitude of the change is different for different services. The move towards the line of equality is the biggest in modern contraception use; the standard CI declined from 0.496 in DHS 2000 to 0.12 in 2014. A similar performance is also observed in measles vaccination: standard CI declined from 0.242 in DHS 2000 to 0.096 in 2014.

28
Table <u>6.1: School Attendance, Rural and Urban Argentina, 2001 (percent)</u>

||||Age(<br>|years)<br>|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||3–4|5|6–11|12–14|15–17|18–24|
|Total|39.1|78.8|98.2|95.1|79.4|36.9|
|Total Urban Argentina|42.0|80.8|98.5|96.2|82.4|39.1|
|Total Rural Argentina|20.4|65.9|96.4|87.2|56.1|16.5|
|Total Grouped Rural Argentina|29.3|78.2|98.5|93.2|70.9|23.2|
|Total Dispersed Rural Argentina|16.6|60.6|95.5|84.4|49.1|13.5|
|Source: Own calculations based on IN|DEC Natio|nal Popula|tion Cens|us 2001.|||

Disparities are even larger for secondary school education, which 9 percent of rural dwellers of working age have completed, compared to 26 percent in urban areas. Moreover, data reveal that rural dwellers in dispersed areas have attained much less education than their peers in grouped rural areas; for completed secondary education, the numbers are 7 and 13 percent, respectively.

Table 6.2: Maximum Level of Education Attained in Argentina, 2001 (percent)

||No education<br>or<br>primary<br>incomplete|Primary<br>complete<br>or<br>secondary<br>incomplete|Secondary<br>complete<br>or<br>tertiary<br>incomplete|Tertiary<br>complete|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Total Argentina|17.9|48.9|24.5|8.7|
|Total Urban Argentina|15.6|49.0|26.1|9.4|
|Total Rural Argentina|38.6|49.2|9.2|3.1|
|Total Grouped Rural Argentina|29.9|52.9|12.8|4.4|
|Total DispersedRural Argentina|42.8|47.5|7.3|2.4|

Source: Own calculations based on INDEC National Population Census 2001.

School attendance by poor students still lags in rural Argentina. In dispersed rural areas , children from richer households have on average a higher school attendance, are less likely to repeat a school year, and have more completed years of schooling than children from poor households. Furthermore, data reveal a negative correlation between poverty and educational attainment in rural Argentina. The level of education of the extremely poor is the lowest, and it is also increasing more slowly than average.

32
**_Energy demand models for policy_** **_<u>formulation</u>_**

forecasts for 2005 were systematically lower and even the actual demand was close the forecasts for 2010. This shows the underestimation and underperformance of the model even in mature economy with little demand surprises.

Table 5: Demand drivers of DTI model

|Sectors|Activity<br>variable|Price variable|Appliance<br>stock|Weather|Other|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Domestic|Real<br>personal<br>disposable<br>income|Domestic<br>energy prices|Major<br>appliance<br>take up|External<br>temperatures|Number<br>of<br>households|
|Transport|GDP,<br>OECD<br>GDP|Petrol price,<br>other<br>fuel<br>prices|Car<br>ownership<br>level, goods<br>lifted,<br>track<br>length||Population and<br>number<br>of<br>households|
|Service|GDP|Service<br>sector energy<br>prices||External<br>temperatures|Public<br>sector<br>share,<br>employment|
|Industry|GDP|Industrial<br>sector prices,<br>fossil<br>fuel<br>prices,<br>electricity<br>prices|||Physical output|

Source: DTI (2005) Table 6: Comparison of actual demand with projected demand for the UK (Mtoe)

|Description|2005|2010|
|---|---|---|
|Centre growth low<br>price scenario|239.9|247.4|
|Central growth high<br>price scenario|235.6|242.8|
|Actual-2004|246.0||
|Actualdemand2005|247.4||
|Actualdemand2006|243.8||

Source: DTI (2000) and BERR (2007) 78
# **1. Introduction**

This post-earthquake assessment of emergency assistance programs follows up on a previous assessment of the impact of assistance operations on food security<sup>2</sup> that used the first Rapid Emergency Food Security Assessment (EFSA I) survey which was conducted in midFebruary 2010 by the CNSA in collaboration with its main partners (ACF, FEWS-Net, Oxfam GB, FAO, UNICEF and WFP).<sup>3</sup> Three weeks after the earthquake, a random 933-household survey was conducted on the population in the disaster areas. The questionnaire examined food insecurity and livelihoods.<sup>4</sup> Food and non food emergency assistance was thus assessed in the wake of the earthquake.

Based on this unique survey, a first assessment examined how assistance programs were allocated in Haiti, looking at the households’ specific characteristics. The survey evaluated that between 30% and 50% of the houses were destroyed and that 31% of the households were experiencing limited or severe food insecurity (22% and 9% respectively), that is a nearly double the food insecurity prevalence observed before the earthquake.<sup>5,6</sup> At that early point, we also conducted an analysis of assistance allocation after the earthquake. Despite the fact that food assistance was not specifically targeted yet at the time of the survey, our results show that individuals staying in camps had a significantly greater probability of accessing assistance, especially food assistance. This entails that food assistance was likely to reach food insecure people, as the poorest households were either forced or had little choice but to move to these camps.<sup>7</sup> What is more, it appears that household food insecurity after the earthquake was more connected to pre-earthquake household wealth than to asset losses experienced by households after the quake.<sup>8</sup> Hence, it appears that households were able to partly buffer the impact of the shock. Nevertheless, it was not possible with our setting to isolate the impact of food assistance

> 2 _Cf._ Echevin (2010).

> 3 _Cf._ CNSA (2010a).

> 4 More precisely, the questionnaire collected information on mortality, displacements and housing damages, income sources and durable goods before and after the earthquake as well as food consumption and other expenses, agricultural activities, survival strategies and the nutritional status of children.

> 5 _Cf._ CNSA (2010b).

> 6 Based on a random survey in Port-au-Prince, Kolbe et al. (2010) have shown that 18.6% of all households were experiencing _severe_ food insecurity six weeks after the earthquake. They also estimated that 24.4% of the respondents’ homes had been completely destroyed by the quake.

> 7 People were _de facto_ poorer and more food insecure in camps according to February 2010 survey.

> 8 Household wealth is proxied by an asset index, obtained from a multiple component analysis using housing characteristics and household durable goods.

2
# 3.1.1 Budgetary cost to the SGC

We choose the initial import subsidy rate for each good to be equal to the current preference margin for two reasons. First, it provides us with a convenient benchmark to calculate welfare changes because the initial switch from a preference to a subsidy at a similar rate leaves all prices and quantities unchanged. Second, governments considering this proposal should fi nd it re-assuring that initially it does not affect the status quo. Naturally, alternative initial subsidies are possible and would deliver different results. Therefore the import subsidy paid by a given SGC on good i at the current tariffs and world prices is de ned as follows: where si is the advalorem subsidy rate that we choose to equal the difference between the current MFN and preferential tariff, ti − t<sup>p</sup> i<sup>,i.e.thecurrentpreferentialmargin,asinthetheoreticalmodel.</sup> The world price is p<sup>w</sup> and m represents the quantity exported by a SRC to a SGC at the current p<sup>w</sup> and tariffs. This subsidy value can be easily calculated using current data on MFN tariffs, preferences and exports if we assume full utilization of preferences. This is also the fi gure often used to provide an approximation of the yearly potential gains to bene fi ciaries of the preference schemes in terms of export revenues.<sup>26</sup> The budgetary cost of the switch for the granting country is zero in the absence of MFN tariff reductions since Si in (8) is equal to the tariff revenue it currently foregoes due to the preference. However, reductions in the MFN tariff cause changes in p<sup>w</sup> and m that consequently change the subsidy level. To calculate the resulting prices and quantities we use the worldwide partial equilibrium model of traded goods described in the appendix, where we assume that all WTO members would cut their tariffs by 33% in the current round of negotiations.<sup>27</sup> Using an “∗” to denote the values after the MFN tariff reductions we have Si<sup>∗=sipw∗m∗.Werecallthatthesubsidyrateisunchangedby</sup> construction but the tariff revenue is now collected at the lower tariff, t<sup>∗</sup> . Thus, for a good i imported preferentially the budgetary cost of moving from the preference to the subsidy scheme when the MFN

> 26 Currently these preferences are not fully utilized (Inama [2003]) so it is likely that would also be the case under the subsidy. Therefore our estimates of the cost of the subsidy and preference erosion are likely to be an upper bound for the true effects. However, since our main interest is in comparing the outcome under the preference relative to the subsidy we don’t believe that deviations from full utilization rate will be quantitatively important since they generate similar effects under the two scenarios.

> 27 It is difficult to determine what the likely average cut of the Doha Round will be, but an average cut of 33 percent was agreed for developed countries in the Uruguay Round.

11
becomes clear that poverty went from being discussed in a narrow context that failed to explicitly consider other dimensions of development besides education, to a new context where poverty was framed around multiple dimensions. Furthermore, the recent emergence of many other smaller “residual” topics related to areas such as housing or nutrition, suggests that the discourse used to discuss poverty has become more varied in recent years.

An equally significant and qualitatively similar rhetorical shift took place in the discussion of inequality. Results are shown in Figure 12 and Table 4.

**Figure 12. The context of inequality references over time**

_(% of excerpts belonging to each topic by decade)_ <!-- Start of picture text --> 100%<br>Rest of the topics<br>75% International<br>comparisons<br>50%<br>Public administration<br>War and<br>Social<br>25% military<br>justice<br>Equality of<br>opportunities<br>0%<br>1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010<br>Average topic proportion<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: This Figure shows the percentage of speech excerpts belonging to each topic during each decade. Excerpts are classified as belonging to the topic with the highest topic probability. We pool excerpts by decade and compute the percentage of speeches belonging to each topic in each decade.

Figure 12 above suggests that between 1819 and 1880 one of the prevailing contexts of discussion was related to war and the military. Once again, this seems consistent with the turbulent historical context of that period. After 1880, discussing inequality in the context of war became far less common, and instead, presidents began to mention the issue in a broader and somewhat miscellaneous context of public administration. This topic dominated until the 1940s, when it was gradually replaced by three new topics that emerged in a semi-sequential manner. The first of these—the “international comparisons” topic— was one that made isolated appearances in the 1830s and 1910s, but which was not particularly prevalent until the 1950-1980 period. The discourse found in this topic was characterized by a more international outlook, comparing countries to each other and calling for equality and cooperation between the world’s nations. The second context of 23
- Hernandez-Canovas, Gines, and Pedro Martinez-Solano (2007). “Effect of the Number of Banking Relationships on Credit Availability: Evidence from Panel Data of Spanish Small Firms,” _Small Business Economics_ 28: 37-53.

- Hutchinson, John (2006). “Comparing the Impact of Credit Constraints on the Growth of SMEs in a Transition Country with an Established Market Economy,” _Small Business Economics_ 27: 169-179.

- IADB (Inter-American Development Bank) (2004). _Unlocking Credit: The Quest for Deep and Stable Lending_ , Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.

- IFC (International Finance Corporation) (2009). “The SME Banking Knowledge Guide,” The World Bank Group, Washington D.C.

- Keeton, William R. (1995). “Multi-Office Bank Lending to Small Businesses: Some New Evidence,” _Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review_ 80: 45-57.

- Konings, Jozef, Marian Rizov, and Hylke Vandenbussche (2003). “Investment and Credit Constraints in Transition Economies: Micro Evidence from Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Romania,” _Economics Letters_ 78: 253–258.

- Murphy, Neil B. (1983). “Loan rates, operating costs and size of loan: The evidence from crosssection data,” In P. Horvitz & R. Pettit (Eds.), _Small Business_ , Connecticut: JAI Press, pp. 51–62.

- OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (2004). _Promoting Entrepreneurship and Innovative SMEs in a Global Economy: Towards a More Responsible and Inclusive Globalisation_ , Second OECD Conference of Ministers Responsible for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs), Executive Summary of the Background Papers, Paris, France: OECD.

- Peltoniemi, Janne (2007). “The benefits of relationship banking: Evidence from small business financing in Finland,” _Journal of Financial Services Research_ 31: 153–171.

- Rocha, Roberto, Subika Farazi, Rania Khouri, and Douglas Pearce (2010). “The Status of Bank Lending to SMEs in the Middle and North Africa Region: The Results of a Joint Survey of the Union of Arab Banks and the World Bank,” Mimeo, the World Bank, Washington, D.C., and the Union of Arab Banks, Beirut.

- Schiffer, Mirijam, and Beatrice Weder (2001). “Firm Size and the Business Environment: Worldwide Survey Results,” Discussion Paper 43, International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC.

- Scholtens, Bert (1999). “Analytical Issues in External Financing Alternatives for SMEs,” _Small Business Economics_ 12: 137-148.

17
WPS4062

# **GROWTH BEFORE AND AFTER TRADE LIBERALIZATION**<sup>**1**</sup>

**Gonzalo Salinas Oxford University**

**Ataman Aksoy World Bank**

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4062, November 2006 _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> 1 Oxford University and The World Bank. We would like to thank Ibrahim Elbadawi and Linda Kaltani for supplying the real exchange rate misalignment variable, and to Bernard Hoekman, Guru Sethupathy, Richard Newfarmer and Gavin Cameron for useful comments on an earlier draft.