# **Table 8. Difference-in-differences regressions for impact of FVA reform on trade** **<u>Panel A. Full Sample</u>**

||Sample period:<br>2009-2015|Sample period:<br>2010-2015<br>Annual shocks|<br>Sample period:<br>2010-2015<br>Semester shocks<br>Depende|Sample period:<br>2010-2015<br>Annual shocks<br>nt variable: log im|Sample period:<br>2010-2015<br>Semester shocks<br>port value|Sample period:<br>2010-2014<br>Annual shocks|<br>Sample period:<br>2010-2014<br>Semester shocks|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|
|Indicator for FVA products * Post-reform indicator (2<sup>nd</sup>||||||||
|semester of 2014 & 2015)|0.034**|0.029*|0.032*|||||
||(0.016)|(0.017)|(0.018)|||||
|Indicator for FVA products * Post-reform indicator (2015)||||0.044**|0.041*|||
|||||(0.019)|(0.021)|||
|Indicator for FVA products * Post-reform indicator (2<sup>nd</sup>||||||||
|semester of 2014)||||||0.003|0.009|
|||||||(0.026)|(0.028)|
|Export supply shock - log country of origin total exports||||||||
|to world||0.117***|0.099***|0.117***|0.099***|0.114***|0.098***|
|||(0.004)|(0.008)|(0.004)|(0.008)|(0.004)|(0.009)|
|Import demand shock - log Albania imports from world||0.019***|0.038***|0.019***|0.039***|0.019***|0.038***|
|||(0.002)|(0.002)|(0.002)|(0.002)|(0.002)|(0.002)|
|Import demand shock - log Bulgaria imports from world||0.040***|0.059***|0.040***|0.059***|0.037***|0.046***|
|||(0.005)|(0.009)|(0.005)|(0.009)|(0.006)|(0.010)|
|Import demand shock - log Greece imports from world||0.043***|0.059***|0.043***|0.059***|0.046***|0.054***|
|||(0.005)|(0.010)|(0.005)|(0.010)|(0.006)|(0.011)|
|Import demand shock - log Serbia imports from world||0.050***|0.062***|0.050***|0.061***|0.048***|0.088***|
|||(0.004)|(0.006)|(0.004)|(0.006)|(0.004)|(0.008)|
|HS 4-digit product * country of origin fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Semester-year fixed effects|Yes|No|No|No|No|No|No|
|Country of origin * semester-year fixed effects|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|224,053|210,446|153,302|210,446|153,302|178,309|126,378|
|R-squared|0.772|0.777|0.783|0.777|0.783|0.785|0.792|
|**Panel B. Sample of fo**|**od contact**|**materials**|**and produ**|**cts in sam**|**e HS 2-digi**|**t**||

||Sample period:<br>2009-2015|Sample period:<br>2010-2015<br>Annual shocks|<br>Sample period:<br>2010-2015<br>Semester shocks<br>Depende|Sample period:<br>2010-2015<br>Annual shocks<br>nt variable: log im|<br>Sample period:<br>2010-2015<br>Semester shocks<br>port value|Sample period:<br>2010-2014<br>Annual shocks|<br>Sample period:<br>2010-2014<br>Semester shocks|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|
|Indicator for food contact materials * Post-reform||||||||
|indicator (2<sup>nd</sup>semester of 2014 & 2015)|0.073***|0.050**|0.051**|||||
||(0.023)|(0.023)|(0.025)|||||
|Indicator for food contact materials * Post-reform||||||||
|indicator (2015)||||0.068**|0.072**|||
|||||(0.027)|(0.029)|||
|Indicator for food contact materials * Post-reform||||||||
|indicator (2<sup>nd</sup>semester of 2014)||||||0.012|0.005|
|||||||(0.036)|(0.039)|
|Export supply shock - log country of origin total exports||||||||
|to world||0.113***|0.100***|0.113***|0.100***|0.112***|0.101***|
|||(0.006)|(0.012)|(0.006)|(0.012)|(0.006)|(0.014)|
|Import demand shock - log Albania imports from world||0.020***|0.039***|0.020***|0.039***|0.018***|0.038***|
|||(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.004)|
|Import demand shock - log Bulgaria imports from world||0.022***|0.032**|0.022***|0.032**|0.017*|0.021|
|||(0.008)|(0.014)|(0.008)|(0.014)|(0.009)|(0.016)|
|Import demand shock - log Greece imports from world||0.029***|0.038***|0.029***|0.038***|0.033***|0.02|
|||(0.007)|(0.014)|(0.007)|(0.014)|(0.008)|(0.016)|
|Import demand shock - log Serbia imports from world||0.075***|0.075***|0.075***|0.075***|0.079***|0.119***|
|||(0.006)|(0.009)|(0.006)|(0.009)|(0.007)|(0.014)|
|HS 4-digit product * country of origin fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Semester-year fixed effects|Yes|No|No|No|No|No|No|
|Country of origin * semester-year fixed effects|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|128,148|121,037|89,169|121,037|90,799|102,764|75,125|
|R-squared|0.756|0.762|0.766|0.763|0.767|0.770|0.776|

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% confidence levels, respectively. In Panel A FVA products includes food of animal origin (license N853), animal feeds (license I047), food of nonanimal origin and food contact materials (license I007)). In columns (3), (5), and (7) of Panels A and B the import demand shock for Albania is annual (as in columns (2), (4), and (6)) due to data constraints.

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