rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide. Ley-Borrás and Fox The authors thank Paolo Bazzurro, Daniel Clarke and additional Core Project Team reviewers (Impact Appraisal for Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Project) for their very useful comments and suggestions on the first draft of this paper.

# **References**

Caballero, R. (2003) The Future of the IMF and World Bank, _American Economic Review_ 93(2), 31‐38.

- Clarke, D.J. (2013a) Evidence Wanted: Effectiveness of Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance, World Bank blog, submitted October 11, 2013.

- Clarke, D.J. (2013b) Is Financial Protection Against Disasters Worth it? A Project on Impact Appraisal for Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing. Presentation November 12, 2013. World Bank.

- Dana J. and S. von Dahlen (2014) An Overview of Potential Pathways to Appraising Impact of Sovereign DRFI: Where Should We Be Looking to Assess Benefits? Overall methodology Background Paper 6. Impact Appraisal for Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Project: Phase 1. World Bank.

- De Janvry, A. (2014) Quantifying through Ex‐post Assessments the Micro‐level Impacts of Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Programs. Microeconomics and Catastrophe Risk Modeling Background Paper 4. Impact Appraisal for Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Project: Phase 1. World Bank.

- Freeman, P., M. Keen, and M. Mani (2003) Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters: Challenges and Options. IMF Working Paper WP/03/197.

- Ghesquiere F. and O. Mahul (2010) Financial Protection of the State against Natural Disasters: A Primer, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5429, World Bank, Washington, DC.

- Gurenko, E. and R. Lester (2004) Rapid Onset Natural Disasters: The Role of Financing in Effective Risk Management, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3278.

- Hofman, D. and P. Brukoff (2006) Insuring Public Finances Against Natural Disasters: A Survey of Options and Recent Initiatives, IMF Working Paper WP/06/199.

Howard, R.A. (1988) Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise, _Management Science_ , 34:6, 679‐695.

- Howard R.A. and J.E. Matheson (2005) Influence Diagrams, _Decision Analysis_ 2(3):127‐143.

- Keeney, R.L. (1992) _Value‐Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision‐Making_ , Harvard University Press, USA.

**18**
Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4488

# **Abstract**

This paper explores the role of export costs in the process of poverty reduction in rural Africa. The authors claim that the marketing costs that emerge when the commercialization of export crops requires intermediaries can lead to lower participation into export cropping and, thus, to higher poverty. They test the model using data from the Uganda National Household Survey. The findings show that: i) farmers living in villages with fewer outlets for sales of agricultural exports are likely to be poorer than farmers residing in marketendowed villages; ii) market availability leads to increased household participation in export cropping (coffee, tea, cotton, fruits); and iii) households engaged in export cropping are less likely to be poor than subsistence-based households. The authors conclude that the availability of markets for agricultural export crops helps realize the gains from trade. This result uncovers the role of complementary factors that provide market access and reduce marketing costs as key building blocks in the link between the gains from export opportunities and the poor.

This paper—a product of the Trade Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the department to is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the impacts of trade on poverty and the responses of households to trade shocks. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at gporto@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
Figure B2: Mean scores on DLI2 and DLI3 components <!-- Start of picture text --> DLI 2 - Institutional performance<br>DLI 3 - Infrastructure<br>2 3 4 5 6<br>Annual Performance Assessment<br>80<br>60<br>40<br>Mean score<br>20<br>0<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Note:_ This figure presents average scores on DLI2 and DLI3 components, including 95% CI for the mean. It should be noted that DLI2 is not strictly comparable over time: the maximum score for the "efficient fiduciary system" sub-component is lower in 2nd and 3rd APA; and the "increased revenue from property taxes" is absent in the 6th APA, reducing the maximum aggregate score. We use "adjusted scores" provided by the QAR for the 2nd and 3rd APAs, that multiply the final score by 10/9 to expand the maximum score from 90 to 100; and apply the same adjustment ourselves to the 6th APA, multiplying scores by 100/75 to take into account the maximum score of 75 points.

Table B1: Evolution of APA indicators

||Total change|Absolute|change|% of tota|l change|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||2-4 APAs|4-6 APAs|2-4 APAs|4-6 APAs|
|Accountability|8.83|8.44|0.39|0.96|0.04|
|Improved infrastructure|1.56|3.17|-1.61|2.04|-1.04|
|Increased revenue|3.50|1.89|1.61|0.54|0.46|
|Urban planning|2.33|-0.39|2.72|-0.17|1.17|

_Note:_ This table reports changes in mean scores for the 18 LGAs receiving the ULGSP program. Column (1) reports the total change in score between the 2nd and 6th APAs, while columns (2) and (3) report changes between 2nd and 4th APAs (before first round survey) and between 4th and 6th APAs (between first and second round surveys), respectively. Columns (5) and (6) express the change in each period as a share of total change. We do not report results for the "Efficient Fiduciary systems" component since the underlying indicators changes throughout the period. The subcomponent "Increased Revenue" was not computed for the 6th APA, so we use the 5th APA as the final round.

57
- 32 -

2.41 In most Asian countries, increased consumption of rice is positively related to incomes at lower levels of income, whereas there is reduced demand for rice at the highest levels of income. A country's per capita GDP also influences rice consumption. Japan has reached a level nf income at which all urban consumers reflected in national statistics eat about the same amount of rice. In Indohesia and rural India. countries with lower national incomes, per capita consumption of rice is positively related to income. Different countries thus have different income elasticities of demand for rice, and these elasticities change over time as income increases.

2.42 From a nutritional standpoint, wheat and corn historically have been less expensive sources of energy and protein than rice. The lower cost of wheat and corn is one reason that food-deficit countries in Asia tend to import wheat to meet the needs of low-income consuimers for a basic food staple. It should be noted, however, that the preparation costs (milling and baking) of wheat are higher than those for rice, an important consideration since the gap between rice and wheat pricee has narrowed. While governments can save foreign exchange by importing the less-expensive wheat, the price consumers pay for the final product might be quite similar.

2.43 In aggregate terms, rice consumption in Asia has been increasing rapidly as a result of population growth and rising incomes. On a per capita basis, however, consumption has risen in some countries, remained stable in a few, and even declined in others. There is little evidence to suggest that increases in rice production have done much more than keep pace with population growth and achieve modest improvements in per capita consumption. Analyzing food self-sufficiency in terms of aggregate data on production and consumption has little relevance if a significant proportion of the population cannot afford an adequate diet. There is a sizable amount of latent consumption potential that would be realized if incomes rise. Although the income elasticity of demand for wheat is slightly higher than that for rice, rice is the dominant staple in all Asian countries (except Pakistan). If incomes of low-income consumers rise, they would be a major factor in the future growth in demand for rice,
49

# **Table A3.3: Dependent variable: Education***

|||||||Ye|ar||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||1976|||1981|||1985|||1996||
||Coefficient|Standard|P-value|Coethicent|Standard|P-value|Coefficient|Standard|P-value|Coefficient|Standard|P-value|
|Intercept|-0,675|0,051|0,0001|3,392|0,031|0,0001|3,307|0,031|0,0001|3,239|0,037|0,0001|
|Age|0,310|0,003|0,0001|0,156|0,002|0,0001|0,185|0,002|0,0001|0,226|0,002|0,0001|
|Age 2|-0,004|0,000|0,0001|-0,002|0,000|0,0001|-0,003|0,000|0,0001|-0,003|0,000|0,0001|
|Gender|-0,115|0,024|0,0001|-0,110|0,014|0,0001|-0,043|0,014|0,0024|0,195|0,017|0,0001|
|North region|-0,826|0,070|0,0001|-0,732|0,040|0,0001|-0,679|0,036|0,0001|-1,092|0,038|0,0001|
|Northeast region|-1,293|0,030|0,0001|-1,247|0,018|0,0001|-1,339|0,018|0,0001|-1,372|0,021|0,0001|
|West-center region|-0,822|0,055|0,0001|-0,552|0,030|0,0001|-0,417|0,029|0,0001|-0,569|0,034|0,0001|
|South region|0,061|0,033|0,0684|-0,107|0,021|0,0001|-0,166|0,021|0,0001|-0,152|0,025|0,0001|
|R2|0,119|||0,085|||0,099|||0,115|||

Source: Based on "Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de DomiCilios" (PNAD) of the 1976 and 1996.

Note: * People older than 10 years

**Table A3.4: Dependent variable: Total members of households younger than 14 years**

|||||||Ye|ar||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||1976|||1981|||1985|||1996||
||Coefficient|Standard|P-value|Coefficient|<br>Standard|P-value|Coefficient|Standard|P-value|Coefficient|Standard|P-value|
|Intercept|0,231|0,061|0,000|0,659|0,043|0,000|0,832|0,037|0,000|1,580|0,033|0,000|
|Schooling of the head|-0,085|0,005|0,000|-0,098|0,004|0,000|-0,086|0,003|0,000|-0,041|0,003|0,000|
|Schooling of the head 2|0,001|0,000|0,000|0,003|0,O00|0,000|0,003|0,000|0,000|0,001|0,000|0,000|
|Age of the head|0,106|0,003|0,000|0,079|0,002|0,000|0,065|0,002|0,000|0,009|0,001|0,000|
|Age of the head 2|-0,001|0,000|0,000|-0,001|0,000|0,000|-0,001|0,000|0,000|0,000|0,000|0,000|
|North region|0,715|0,040|0,000|0,691|0,027|0,000|0,595|0,022|0,000|0,368|0,017|0,000|
|Northeast region|0,501|0,017|0,000|0,483|0,012|0,000|0,392|0,011|0,000|0,230|0,010|0,000|
|West-centerTegion|0,374|0,032|0,000|0,308|0,020|0,000|0,232|0,017|0,000|0,047|0,015|0,002|
|South region|0,064|0,019|0,001|0,015|0,014|0,270|-0,026|0,012|0,032|-0,004|0,011|0,677|
|R2|0,173|||0,173|||0,000|||0,167|||

Source: Based on "Pesquisa Nacional por Anmslr de Dormicilios" (PNAD) of the 1976 and 1996.
Policy Research Working Paper 5931

# **Abstract**

This paper examines two sources of global knowledge spillovers: foreign direct investments and trade. Empirical evidence demonstrates that foreign direct investment and trade can contribute to overall domestic productivity growth only when the technology gap between domestic and foreign firms is not too large and when a sufficient absorptive capacity is available in domestic firms. The paper proposes the terms research and development and labor quality to capture the innovative and absorptive capacity of the country. The spillover effects in productivity are analyzed using a stochastic frontier approach. This productivity (in terms of total factor productivity) is decomposed using a generalized Malmquist output oriented index, in order to evaluate the specific effect in technical change, technical efficiency change, and scale efficiency change. Using country-level data for 16 Latin American countries for 1996–2006, the empirical analysis shows positive productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment and trade only when the country has absorptive capacity in terms of research and development. Foreign direct investment and trade spillovers are found to be positive and significant for scale efficiency change and total productivity factor change.

This paper is a product of the Finance & Private Sector, Latin America and Caribbean Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at jguasch@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
41 <!-- Start of picture text --> 7 Ca<br>c a 0 u3 a - ZI<br>aa<br>a C a 0<br>f3 C~3<br>4<br>3 oC~~~C ~0 C (3TunLs ia<br>a a ° _ a ~~~a a O<br>C~~~~C<br>0 20 40 so SO 100<br>Femnale Tlliteracy<br><!-- End of picture text --> FIGURE 1
decelerate further over the next decade. This slowdown reflected a marked slowdown in capital accumulation and productivity growth amid pronounced investment weakness, as well as demographic headwinds. Weakening growth prospects do not bode well for poverty reduction in EMDEs; in fact, evidence is that the pace of poverty reduction has already started to slow.

Fourth, EMDEs’ vulnerabilities to adverse events have risen since the 2009 global recession. Today’s average EMDE has higher government and private debt, wider fiscal deficits, and only slightly smaller current account deficits than the average EMDE before past financial crises. This may be partly mitigated by greater exchange rate flexibility and more robust monetary, prudential and fiscal policy frameworks compared to previous crises as well as financial sector reforms and the expansion of country-specific, regional, and multilateral financial safety nets since the global recession.

Ruch (2019a) contributes to the existing literature in several dimensions. First, Ruch (2019a) updates earlier WBG work on short- and long-term growth prospects, with granular regional and group perspectives (World Bank 2018b, IMF 2019). Second, it provides a comprehensive overview of vulnerabilities for the largest sample of EMDEs yet. Existing studies, such as Chitu and Quint (2018), Dahlhaus and Lam (2018), IMF (2019), and Rojas-Suarez (2015), for example, limit their analysis to a few, mainly large, EMDEs. In addition, Ruch (2019a) is the first study that compares specific domestic and external vulnerabilities across a comprehensive list of close to 300 previous EMDE crises since 1980, building on the work of Laeven and Valencia (2018).

# Chapter 7: Policy challenges

Unprecedented and coordinated policy stimulus supported a rebound from the global recession in 2010. Since then, amid anemic post-crisis growth, most EMDEs have not been able to fully unwind the policy stimulus put in place in response to the crisis. External, fiscal, and corporate vulnerabilities have increased since 2007. Ruch (2019b) cautions that several EMDEs are highly indebted, have elevated levels of foreign currency-denominated debt, or rely on portfolio or bank flows to finance large current account deficits. In addition, structural factors have eroded potential growth since the global recession.

Against this backdrop, Ruch (2019b) addresses the following questions:

- What macroeconomic policies should be implemented to build resilience?

- What financial sector policies should be employed to maintain financial stability?

- How have structural reforms evolved and what policies are needed to boost growth?

- Ruch (2019b) reports the following findings.

First, it documents the extent to which current macroeconomic policies undermine EMDEs’ resilience to shocks. Over 60 percent of EMDEs have primary fiscal deficits that
_5.1.5. Disaggregation_ . We provide estimates for subsamples where microdata is available across a few dimensions: gender, geographic location, socioeconomic status, immigration status, and language. It is important to note that each individual ISAT and RSAT is not necessarily designed to be nationally representative for each subpopulation. This means that when linking assessments, the use of doubloon countries does not guarantee the underlying population represented is the same. This is only the case when the scores being examined are representative at the country-level. To this end, while disaggregation provides more precision in theory, in practice the linking function is less robust. However, given the importance of equity analysis, we put up with the limitation and provide disaggregated estimates with this caveat.

_5.1.6. Threshold definitions._ The primary TIMSS benchmark for low performance, when linked by underlying competency, is approximately equivalent to Level 6 in SACMEQ, Level III in LLECE and Advanced Level in PASEC before 2014.<sup>16</sup> However, the minimum benchmark from SACMEQ provides a more realistic benchmark for low-income countries; indeed, it aligns much better with other RSAT thresholds and is roughly equivalent to Level 1 in LLECE and the intermediate benchmark in PASEC before 2014. To this end, while the low benchmark from TIMSS is technically easier to standardize globally, since, for example, Levels 1-5 in SACMEQ have no equivalent on TIMSS, it might be less relevant for developing countries. In the future, we hope to use alternative thresholds.

_5.1.7. Differences across linking methodologies._ As mentioned earlier, our results vary across linking methodologies. To this end, we include estimates from the methodologies most ‘fit for purpose.’ For mean scores, this is the pseudo-linear linking method, and for thresholds it is the equipercentile linking method. In the future, we provide a measure of variance across estimates produced by linking methodologies to capture this additional element of uncertainty.

# _5.2. Robustness Checks_

_5.2.1. Comparison to LINCS._ We compare our Harmonized Learning Outcomes (HLO) for primary reading scores with scores generated using an IRT linking methodology by the LINCS project which leverages overlap in items for a subset of ISATs focused on reading at primary school from 1970 onwards (Strietholt, 2014; Strietholt and Rosén, 2016). Where there is overlap in country coverage, these results consistently indicate a high Pearson correlation coefficient of

> 16 We considered that the PASEC study (before 2014) has three different thresholds: minimum (20 points), intermediate (40 points) and advanced (60 points). For practical reasons, we multiplied the PASEC scores by 10 to obtain scores in a scale comparable to other assessments.

39
grants (World Bank 2007: xxi).

Further, there has been an increase in the number of service delivery and administrative functions that have been decentralized to local governments. Local governments can now decide freely on how they want to spend the General Allocation Grants (DAU), which constitutes the bulk of local revenues. Also the funds from revenue sharing are untied and expenditure of these, like the DAU, is completely at the discretion of subnational governments (Lewis 2005: 291-317). There is a constitutional mandate that requires subnational governments to spend a minimum of 20 percent of their budget on education.

Over time, the capacity and effectiveness of local councils in delivering public services to their communities has improved. However, changes in local governments’ responsibilities have occurred unevenly. At the local government level, there are also significant and persistent problems in the level of public spending and in the delivery of public infrastructure and services, which makes the need for improving procurement performance more pressing. Indonesian local governments may be spending more but they often fail to channel these resources in directions that would meet local citizens’ needs (Skoufias et al., 2011).

Third, Indonesia’s decentralization process has yielded significant variation in local government performance across sub-national units. Thus, Indonesia provides a good case to examine the antecedents of the uptake of reform given the sub-national variation on several key dimensions of interest including the strength of local governments’ public financial management (PFM) systems<sup>5</sup> , the quality of local governments’ leadership and the competitiveness of the private sector. Fourth, as we discuss in Section 5, there is also a wide amount of variation in the uptake of procurement reform initiatives and in procurement volumes across sub-national units.

# **4 Methodological Approach**

We first commissioned a scan of procurement reform at the district and provincial levels in Indonesia to be able to examine variation in both the uptake of procurement reform initiatives and in spending patterns, as well as variation in the composition of procurement expenditures over time. As

> 5Initially, we wanted to look at the role PFM systems play in procurement reform but were unable to do so due to a lack of qualitative and quantitative data on PFM in the districts in which we conducted the work.

7