**Appendix Table 8: Impact estimates on primary outcomes with SE’s clustered at the region level.**

||**Control**|**V**|**T - Lower bou**|**nds**|**VT**|**VT**|**- Upper boun**|**ds**|**IV**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**mean**|(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|
||**(standard**<br>**dii**||+25 SD|+1 SD||+1 SD|+25 SD|+||
||**evaton)**|Lee(-)|(/-).|(/-).||(-/).|(-/).|Lee()||
|Total monthly|expenditure**–**|Control mean|/SD at baseline|: 1459.62(587.|43)|||||
|6 months|1538.88|20.73|18.63|59.19***|77.78***|113.26***|153.82***|147.06***|115.70***|
||(549.53)|(24.17)|(18.29)|(17.38)|(20.32)|(16.29)|(15.59)|(15.98)|(35.21)|
|12 months|1557.49|0.33|37.17*|83.88***|99.93***|146.16***|192.87***|174.38***|255.95***|
||(502.89)|(15.15)|(18.40)|(18.09)|(20.80)|(17.77)|(17.61)|(24.98)|(60.06)|
|18 months|1599.34|-44.29**|-74.84***|-1.49|33.03|96.31***|169.67***|125.73***|110.38|
||(556.05)|(19.89)|(11.35)|(11.38)|(19.61)|(11.82)|(12.42)|(25.33)|(79.08)|
|Monthly per c|apita expendit|ure**–**Control|mean/SD at ba|seline: 275.58(|132.82)|||||
|6 months|303.66|-40.14***|-31.88***|-22.90***|-17.02***|-10.93***|-1.95|-10.03**|-21.35***|
||(124.88)|(4.71)|(4.26)|(4.07)|(4.79)|(3.84)|(3.70)|(4.55)|(6.98)|
|12 months|303.88|-38.50***|-29.98***|-20.14***|-14.73***|-7.01**|2.83|-4.83|-28.59***|
||(115.13)|(3.42)|(3.20)|(3.05)|(3.70)|(2.87)|(2.74)|(3.30)|(10.84)|
|18 months|320.30|-62.63***|-61.83***|-45.80***|-33.86***|-24.43***|-8.40***|-23.65***|-100.03***|
||(126.72)|(5.57)|(2.62)|(2.52)|(4.91)|(2.46)|(2.48)|(4.17)|(22.55)|
|Food Consum|ption Score(s|tandardized)|**–**Control mean|/SD at baseline|: 0.00(1.00)|||||
|6 months|0.33|0.10**|0.10***|0.18***|0.23***|0.29***|0.37***|0.33***|0.31***|
||(1.09)|(0.04)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.04)|(0.07)|
|12 months|0.16|0.06|0.04|0.13***|0.19***|0.25***|0.33***|0.30***|0.47***|
||(0.97)|(0.04)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.04)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.05)|(0.11)|
|18 months|0.02|0.03|-0.06***|0.06***|0.14***|0.24***|0.37***|0.26***|0.41***|
||(0.97)|(0.04)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.13)|
|Reduced Con|sumption Cop|ingStrategies|Index(invert|ed and standar|dized) **–**Con|trol mean/SD a|t baseline: 0.00|(1.00)||
|6 months|0.21|0.15***|0.08***|0.14***|0.19***|0.23***|0.29***|0.30***|0.27***|
||(0.92)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.06)|
|12 months|0.51|0.01|-0.05***|0.01|0.05**|0.08***|0.14***|0.18***|0.13*|
||(0.61)|(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.01)|(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.01)|(0.02)|(0.07)|
|18 months|0.57|-0.16***|-0.25***|-0.17***|-0.10***|-0.06***|0.03*|0.01|-0.34***|
||(0.59)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.09)|
|Livelihoods C<br>|opingStrategy<br>|Index(inver<br>|ted and standa<br>|rdized) **–**Cont<br>|rol mean/SD<br>|at baseline: 0.0<br>|0(1.00)<br>|||
|6 months|0.18|0.12***|0.08***|0.15***|0.19***|0.24***|0.31***|0.29***|0.26***|
||(0.94)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.04)|(0.06)|
|12 months|0.31|-0.12***|-0.17***|-0.09***|-0.03|0.02|0.10***|0.09***|-0.09|
||(0.91)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.02)|(0.11)|
|18 months|<br>0.37|<br>-0.12**|<br>-0.23***|<br>-0.11***|<br>-0.03|<br>0.04|<br>0.15***|<br>0.11**|<br>-0.12|
||(082)|(005)|(003)|(003)|(006)|(003)|(003)|(005)|(014)|
|Proportion of|.<br>children atten|.<br>dingschool**–**|.<br> Control mean/|.<br>SD at baseline:|.<br>0.47(0.43)|.|.|.|.|
|6 months|0.56|-0.00|-0.04**|-0.01|0.01|0.04**|0.07***|0.04|0.03|
||(0.42)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.03)|
|12 months|<br>0.54|<br>0.00|<br>-0.03|<br>0.01|<br>0.02|<br>0.06**|<br>0.10***|<br>0.06**|<br>0.09**|
||(0.42)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.05)|
|18 months|0.65|-0.03|-0.07***|-0.02|-0.00|0.06***|0.11***|0.05**|0.03|
||(0.40)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.06)|

_Note: Significance level p< 0.01 - ***, 0.05 - **, 0.1 - *; standard errors clustered at the region level (n=26) in parentheses; Each coefficient in this table is obtained from a different regression of the outcome, which includes a binary treatment indicator fully interacted with the outcome at baseline and the propensity score, the model also includes strata fixed effects (n=5); all consumption values are deflated across regions and months to average 2017 Turkish Lira; the proportion of children attending school regression is estimated using the subsample of households with at least one child; FCS, rCSI, and LCSI are standardized to the control group at baseline, the rCSI and LCSI are inverted so that for all three WFP scores a higher value indicates an improvement; column (4) presents the estimation results from specification 1 using IPW and sampling weights; column (8) presents the results from specification 2, which instruments currently receiving the transfers with eligibility at baseline; columns (1) and (7) are estimated using specification 1 and by trimming the top/bottom of the treatment group by the difference in attrition between the treatment and control, as in Lee (2009); columns (2) to (3) and (5) to (6) estimate specification 1 and replace outcome values for the attritors with +/- 0.x standard deviations of their respective treatment group-wave means as in Kling and Liebman (2004), lower bounds subtract this value from the treatment group and add it to the control group and vice versa for the upper bounds._ 49