countries whose export responses lay in the NE quadrant of both panels. This reveals that their exports substitute for the US and China. As they operate on downward supplies, the expansion into the US and China led to expanding exports to RW, and to an increase in global exports of 2. targeted products, as confirmed by Figure For countries that lie in different quadrants of Panels A and B, it is not possible to immediately sign the direction of their global export changes since it depends on the importance of the US and Chinese destinations in their export basket. However, the figure does reveal the underlying forces to each market. Countries that lie in the NE and SW quadrants (in red) of both panels operate along downward supplies. Mexico, Malaysia, and the Czech Republic lie in the NE quadrant in Panel A and the SW quadrant of Panel B. These countries export varieties that substitute China and complement the US, and operate along downward supplies. The countries highlighted in green lie in the NE and SW quadrants of both panels, suggesting that they operate along upward supplies.

Finally, the grey countries flip the diagonal between panels. Their responses suggest a downward-sloping export supply in response to one tariff and an upward-sloping export supply to the other. Our model would require an additional source of heterogeneity to accommodate these cases. Supply elasticities operating at bilateral level, as in Lind and Ramondo (2018), or bilateral complementarities through trade costs, as in Alfaro et al. (2023), are possible explanations.

The downward sloping supplies could reflect that some countries identified the trade war early as an opportunity and invested in new plants, trade infrastructure, or facilitation, with these investments benefiting exports to all destinations. Or that some countries were already well integrated in the global trading system and could take advantage of the new exporting opportunities across multiple sectors. Our data do not allow us to measure these potential explanations, but we view this as an area for future research.

# **6 Conclusion**

The US-China trade war was seen as a major turning point in the globalization era. Our results do not support this view, at least for the time horizon we analyze: we find that several countries increased global exports in products with higher US-China tariffs, relative to non-taxed products.

We also find cross-country heterogeneity in this export growth in targeted products, and that a country-specific component of the tariff elasticities explains the bulk of the variation. Through the lens of a standard trade model, the export responses suggest negatively-sloped supply curves for several countries as well as differences across countries in terms of whether their exports substitute or complement China. These results contrast with trade models where trade or scale elasticities are typically assumed to vary across sectors rather than across countries.

While product-level global trade data can uncover broad reallocation patterns, firm-level data can unpack the factors driving the country-specific elasticities —whether they consist of increasing returns to scale, trade-war-induced investments in new plants, or participation in trade agreements. We anticipate further research on these mechanisms as the data becomes available.

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