While there are few long‐term studies of unconditional cash transfers, the available evidence suggests that their short‐term effects are not sustained. Sometimes, this may be because the transfers put beneficiaries on an earlier/accelerated growth path than non‐beneficiaries, with the two groups converging over time.<sup>4</sup> In other cases, unconditional cash transfers end up being palliative, meaning that they improve outcomes while the income support is in place, but fail to cause sufficient accumulation of human (or other forms of) capital to alter long‐term outcomes.<sup>5</sup> In such cases, UCT beneficiaries end up back at square one soon after the cessation of transfers.

<mark>One exception to this finding might be in lasting improvements in the health and nutrition of children in beneficiary households. Several recent studies have found that children who are exposed to unconditional cash transfers in utero and between the ages of 0 and 5 (the earlier the better) are substantially less likely to be stunted.</mark><sup>6</sup> Longer‐term evaluations of CCT programs offer room for optimism. A number of longer‐term evaluations of CCT programs indicate that while they might improve school attainment among adolescent beneficiaries, evidence of longer‐term gains in terms of learning, employment, and income are mixed as they become young adults.<sup>7</sup> However, recent studies are finding evidence of promising longer‐term gains. Examples include a forced savings treatment attached to a traditional schooling CCT program in Bogotá increasing tertiary enrollment and graduation; a CCT program in Malawi and a secondary school scholarship program in Ghana causing large gains in school attainment and substantial reductions in fertility among vulnerable female beneficiaries; Nicaragua’s CCT program leading to substantial gains in learning among boys and reductions in fertility and increased economic activity among girls 10 years after they were exposed to the program as early adolescents; and a school‐based intervention in Kenya that provided school uniforms finding significant reductions in school dropout, pregnancy, and marriage among girls in the short‐ and medium‐run; and school attainment, marriage, and childbearing by age 16 in the longer‐run.<sup>8</sup> 4 Blattman, Christopher, Nathan Fiala, and Sebastian Martinez. 2018. The Long‐Term Impacts of Grants on Poverty: 9‐Year Evidence from Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program. American Economic Review: Insights, _forthcoming;‐_ Haushofer, Johannes and Jeremy Shapiro. 2018. The Long‐Term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence From Kenya. Working Paper.

5 Baird, McIntosh, and Özler (2019), _cited above_ .

6 ‐Agüero, Jorge, Michael Carter, and Ingrid Woolard. 2006. The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Nutrition: The South African Child Support Grant. SALDRU Working Paper Series No. 06/08.; Barham, Tania, Karen Macours, and John A Maluccio. 2013. Boys' Cognitive Skill Formation and Physical Growth: Long‐Term Experimental Evidence on Critical Ages for Early Childhood Interventions. American Economic Review 103 (3): 467‐471; Cahyadi, Nur, Rema Hanna, Benjamin A. Olken, Rizal Adi Prima, Elan Satriawan, and Ekki Syamsulhakim. 2018. Cumulative Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: Experimental Evidence from Indonesia. NBER Working Paper 24670. National Bureau of Economic Research.;‐ Baird, McIntosh, and Özler (2019), _cited above_ .

7 Baez, Javier Eduardo and Adriana Camacho. 2011. Assessing the Long‐Term Effects of Conditional Cash Transfers on Human Capital: Evidence from Colombia. IZA Discussion Paper No. 5751.; Behrman, Jere R, Susan W Parker, and Petra E Todd. 2011. Do Conditional Cash Transfers for Schooling Generate Lasting Benefits? Journal of Human Resources 46 (1): 93‐122; Filmer, Deon and Norbert Schady. 2014. The Medium‐Term Effects of Scholarships in a Low‐Income Country. Journal of Human Resources 49 (3): 663‐694; Araujo, M Caridad, Mariano Bosch, and Norbert Schady. 2016. Can Cash Transfers Help Households Escape an Inter‐Generational Poverty Trap? NBER Working Paper 22670. National Bureau of Economic Research; Cahyadi et al. (2018), _cited above_ ;Molina‐Millan, Teresa, Karen Macours, John A. Maluccio, and Luis Tejerina. 2018. Experimental Long‐term Effects of Early Childhood and School‐ age Exposure to a Conditional Cash Transfer Program. Working paper.

8Barrera‐Osorio, Felipe, Leigh L Linden, and Juan E Saavedra. 2017. Medium‐ and Long‐Term Educational Consequences of Alternative Conditional Cash Transfer Designs: Experimental Evidence from Colombia. NBER Working Paper 23275. National Bureau of Economic Research; Baird, McIntosh, and Özler (2019), _cited above_ ;‐ Duflo, 6