based on results from the phone survey, and iii) impact channels that we were not able to assess quantitatively such as gender-based violence (GBV), health and education but that deserve consideration. Section 4 concludes the paper with a summary of the main findings.

# 2. Methodology

## 2.1. CGE Simulation

The model used for the CGE analysis is the “Mitigation, Adaptation, and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium” (MANAGE) model (van der Mensbrugghe, 2020). MANAGE is a recursive dynamic, single-country CGE model based on neoclassical theories of the firm and household behavior, assuming firms are profit maximizers and households are utility maximizers. In the context of COVID-19, where individuals across all income levels and sectors of the economy are affected simultaneously, CGE modelbased simulations are well-suited for a comprehensive evaluation of ex-ante impact, capturing direct and indirect effects through a wide variety of transmission channels along several dimensions. One caveat of using CGE models for gender-based analysis is that these models use a social accounting matrix (SAM) as data input. However, most SAMs (like the one used in this study) do not account for unpaid domestic work and care labor in the economy, which is largely provided by women, due to lack of data as they are not covered by the system of national accounts and by most household surveys.

The 2017 Chad SAM<sup>5</sup> that we use to calibrate the CGE model is updated from the 2016 SAM using the 2017 Supply and Use Table (SUT), the Government Financial Operations Table (TOFE), and the 2010 Table of Integrated Economic Accounts (TCEI).<sup>6</sup> Furthermore, to better keep track of distributional and labor market impacts by gender dimensions, the household and labor accounts in the SAM are disaggregated using the Harmonized Household Living Standards Survey 2018/2019 (ECOSIT 4),<sup>7</sup> which was conducted by the National Institute of Statistics, Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED).

The updated 2017 Chad SAM includes 33 sectors, and the agricultural sectors (food crops, cash crops, livestock, fishing, and forestry) are further split by gender of farm/enterprise owners to represent the different cost structures of female and male-owned farms. Labor accounts for each of these sectors are disaggregated into eight categories by three dimensions: gender, salary and non-salaried payment, and farm and non-farm work. Households are disaggregated by rural and urban deciles.

The version of the model used for this study is based on Burns et al. (2020), which incorporates several developments, among which the most relevant for this study is the demographics module. The standard version of the MANAGE model tracks population in three age cohorts: 0-14, 15-64, and 65+. The new module tracks population at each age between 0 and 100 (people 100+ are assumed to be in age group 100). In every period of the model solution, people in each age move to the next age by taking into account the death rate at each age. Then, in every period, newborns join age 0 based on the birth rates for that period. Age,period-specific death rates, and the period-specific birth rates are calibrated to the UN population projections such that the model generates the same projections over time. The labor supply at time t is then the sum of all ages between age 15 and 64 multiplied by the labor force participation rate. The total labor force is then distributed across different labor types based on base

> 5 The SAM is available upon request.

> 6 The SUT, TOFE, TCEI and the household survey were sourced from INSEED. The latest available TCEI is for 2010.

> 7 In French the original title of the survey is Enquête sur la Consommation des Ménages et le Secteur Informel au Tchad (Ecosit

> 4). It is a survey with a sample size of 7,493 households representative at the national and regional levels and by urban/rural.

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