compute, for each farm, the area cultivated with winter and summer crops annually from 2019 to 2023.<sup>23</sup> Comparing cropped area before and after receipt of program funds between PSG recipients and eligible SAR registrants who did not receive PSG resources then can provide an estimate of program impact.

To illustrate the locations of farms in our data, we use the centroid of all parcel centroids as a proxy for the farm’s location. Figure 1 panel A shows the map for all farms registered in SAR with a size below 120 ha. Successful applicants in blue and unsuccessful ones in yellow. Areas with yellow dots only correspond to conflict-affected zones identified by Government that were not eligible to benefit from PSG. Excluding these provides us with a sample of 43,003 farms (19,660 treated and 23,343 control) that cultivate land exclusively in non-conflict affected areas. Panel B of figure 1 maps these farms, illustrating that, apart from conflict zones, they cover Ukraine’s entire territory.

Data on registered area and crop cover can be used to assess targeting of PSG resources in two ways, namely by identifying if (i) farms that cultivated more than 120 ha (or that did not cultivate at all) received PSG grants and (ii) self-declared area matches with the total area of parcels to which farmers have a registered right that are cultivated. Table 4 illustrates that of 20,445 farms with parcel data (including those with land in conflict areas), 31 had zero cultivated area based on satellite imagery while 46 had registered and cultivated area greater than 120 ha implying that, based on remotely sensed data, they would not have been eligible to receive PSG resources. Also, with 19.15 ha, mean self-reported area is 0.33 ha larger than what was obtained using remote sensing. Despite a strong incentive to over-report area cultivated, this suggests mis-targeting was rather limited, especially if compared to widespread reports about irregularities in earlier farm support programs in Ukraine.

# **4.2 Methodology and results**

To estimate the impact of subsidy receipt on area cultivated, we use the fact that applicants were informed about the status of their application in November 2022 and the money was transferred in December 2022 or January 2023. As this was too late to affect decisions about the area to be planted to winter crops in the 2023 agricultural season, PSG receipt would only affect area decisions for summer crops, allowing us to use a difference-in-differences design with 2023 as the outcome variable. Formally, indexing farms by _i_ and time by _t_ , we use a farm fixed effects regression of the form i + P ∗P P i i ii ii tt where _Yitit_ is the area cultivated with summer crops in YY = αα PP _t_ , + XX γγ+ λλ + εε i + P ∗P P i i (1) where _Yitit t_ is a farm fixed effect; _PSGi_ is an indicator variable that equals one if farm _i_ participated in the PSG program and zero otherwise; ii _Post_ indicates timing after the αα

> 23 As historical registry records are not accessible, we are able to observe when farmers acquired rights to parcels they currently cultivate and can make adjustments accordingly (implicitly assuming that the last recorded right is the current one and that registration created a new right rather than extending or renewing an existing one), we cannot adjust for rights that were transferred out.

13