<!-- Start of picture text --> FIGURE A 4. PREDICTED POVERTY HEADCOUNT BY INCOME GROWTH COUNTRY TYPOLOGY<br>Panel A. LOGCs Panel B. MOGCs Panel C. HOGCs<br>(Based period: 1980–2014) (Based period: 1980–2014) (Based period: 1980–2014)<br>75 75 75<br>60 60 60<br>45 45 45<br>30 30 30<br>15 15 15<br>0 0 0<br>1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040<br>Years Years Years<br>Poverty he adcount outcomes derived from 50 0 random draws per year in each of the Poverty he adcount outcomes derived from 50 0 random draws per year in each of the Poverty he adcount outcomes derived from 50 0 random draws per year in each of the<br>150 select ed countr ies. The 2015 and 2030 corr espondin g results are: i) median = 50.44 150 selecte d countr ies. The 2015 and 2030 corr espondin g results are: i) median = 12.87 150 select ed countr ies. The 2015 and 2030 co rrespond ing results are: i) median = 4.5<br>and 48.41; ii) mean = 50.32 and 47.86; iii) skewness = -0.24 and -0.04; iv) standard and 9.12; ii) mean = 12.89 and 9.15; iii) skewness = 0.04 and 0.33; iv) standard and 0.85; ii) mean = 4.65 and 1.48; iii) skewness = 0.99 and 1.76; iv) standard deviation<br>deviation = 2.55 and 9.87. Estimated number of persons living in extreme poverty deviation = 0.55 and 1.07. Estimated number of persons living in extreme poverty = 1.30 and 1.59. Estimated number of persons living in extreme poverty corresponding<br>corresponding to the median headcount = 87 and 127 million people. corresponding to the median headcount = 635 and 531 million people. to the median headcount = 90 and 18 million people.<br>96% confidence interval 80% confidence interval<br>40% confidence interval Median<br>Poverty headcount of 3 percent Year = 2030<br>) ) )<br>(percentage) (percentage) (percentage)<br>( ( (<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Penn World Table 9.0, World Development Indicators, World Bank PovcalNet, United Nations, and the author’s estimates.

<!-- Start of picture text --> FIGURE A 5. PREDICTED GINI COEFFICIENTS BY INCOME GROWTH COUNTRY TYPOLOGY<br>Panel A. LOGCs Panel B. MOGCs Panel C. HOGCs<br>(Base period: 1980–2014) (Base period: 1980–2014) (Base period: 1980–2014)<br>70 70 70<br>57.5 57.5 57.5<br>45 45 45<br>32.5 32.5 32.5<br>20 20 20<br>1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040<br>Years Years Years<br>Aggregated Gini index sta ts derived from 500 ra ndom dra ws per year in each of the 8 Aggregated Gini index sta ts derived from 500 r andom dr aws per year in each of the Aggregated Gini index sta ts derived from 500 ra ndom dra ws per year in each of the 25<br>selected countrie s. The 201 5 and 2030 corresponding results are: i) median = 42.08 and 117 selected cou ntries. Th e 2015 and 2030 corresponding results are: i) median = 38.09 selected countrie s. The 201 5 and 2030 corresponding results are: i) median = 40.81 and<br>38.30; ii) mean = 42.12 and 38.88; iii) skewness = 0.15 and 0.85; iv) standard deviation and 37.08; ii) mean = 38.11 and 37.20; iii) skewness = 0.15 and 0.41; iv) standard 39.66; ii) mean = 40.90 and 41.11; iii) skewness = 0.22 and 0.36; iv) standard deviation<br>= 1.23 and 3.73. deviation = 0.44 and 1.69. = 2.27 and 7.90.<br>96% confidence interval 80% confidence interval<br>40% confidence interval Median<br>Poverty headcount of 3 percent Year = 2030<br>) ) )<br>( ( (<br>(weighted by population) (weighted by population) (weighted by population)<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Penn World Table 9.0, World Development Indicators, World Bank PovcalNet, United Nations, and the author’s estimates.

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