<mark>others? We do not estimate the cost and benefits of investing in different geographic areas and we therefore refrain from offering any policy prescriptions. Instead, the estimates presented here should be seen as a useful starting point for a dialogue about where the most vulnerable people are located and what factors render them more vulnerable than others. These are also the uses of a poverty map.</mark> <mark>We adopt a theory-driven approach to constructing the vulnerability index based on the notion that vulnerability is a function of exposure to climate change and variability; sensitivity to the impacts of that exposure; and ability to adapt to ongoing and future changes (Hahn, Riederer, and Foster, 2009). Indicators and indices are useful for describing a complex reality in simple terms and permitting comparisons across space and time provided that they can be comprehended intuitively, are impartial, and are geographically comparable (Vincent, 2004). We agree with those authors that have argued that the ‘adaptation deficit’—excessive vulnerability to current climate variability—is a good proxy of future vulnerability to climate change (e.g., World Bank 2009b). This motivates our focus on vulnerability to current climate variability, not projected future changes.</mark> <mark>We illustrate our approach to climate vulnerability mapping with the case of Tajikistan which has been identified as the country most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region (World Bank, 2009a). Plans are under way to scale up adaptation efforts in Tajikistan under the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience and other. To inform these efforts, this paper seeks to assess how</mark> vulnerability to climate change and climate variability vary across regions of the country.

<mark>Tajikistan is a low income country and the poorest country in the ECA region. Much of the population and the economy of Tajikistan are in the two major valleys which are the loci of irrigated agriculture and where water availability is a major climate changerelated concern. The remainder inhabits the mountainous areas of varying elevation where mudslides and other natural disasters are major risks. Adaptation strategies need to determine where to invest in planned adaptation. Such strategies face an apparent dilemma between protecting the core agricultural economy by investing in the most productive areas or to invest in disaster risk management in more remote mountainous zones.</mark> <mark>Our assessment of vulnerability considers a range of factors beyond the geo-physical impacts of climate change and draws on diverse data sources including household surveys and weather station records. These factors include the extent to which assets and livelihoods are sensitive to impacts of climate change as well as the social, economic, and institutional factors that are likely to shape adaptive capacity. In Tajikistan, migration and elevation are two critical factors to consider. A common household livelihood strategy is overseas migration for work, mostly to Russia. Tajikistan received remittances equivalent to 40% of its GDP in 2008, almost all from male migration to Russia. Households in the rural highlands have on average almost 50%</mark> <mark>3</mark>