Dramatic improvements in data availability and transparency, made possible largely by pressure from civil society and the international community, have transformed the political landscape in the past two decades, opening opportunities for civil society to engage in evidence-based policy debates and hold governments to account. Transparency and accountability instruments (TAPS) and multi-stakeholder initiatives were central to the good governance agenda and were widely adopted in Africa especially in extractive and financial management (Watts and Porter 2023). But, as the case of EITI reveals, the theory of change in transparency policies – that information disclosure can trigger reforms and enhance state capacity - often turns out to be shallow and performative<sup>32</sup> even though some successes have been recorded.<sup>33</sup> While protests tend be highly localized events, they share common driving forces. Underlying different movements lies the larger question of what full citizenship should entail, and the validity of the prevailing social contract.<sup>34</sup> Protests question the contract’s tacit and common agreements – its legitimacy and authority in short – on what citizens expect from the state and the state’s capacity and willingness to deliver on these expectations. De facto, mobilization has tended to emerge from citizens’ deep dissatisfaction with their livelihoods, including living costs and access to public services, which protesters have regularly attributed to their country’s poor governance – including their government’s corruption and inability to deliver on their distributive mandates. South Africa, for example, has been the site of repeated episodes of social mobilization: in 2019 large-scale and persistent student unrest at virtually all of the campuses over fees, hiring and curriculum significantly disrupted the academic year; more recently, in 2023, the country witnessed protests against the electricity crisis and repeated power cuts. In Sudan, demonstrations in 2019, here again youth-led, resulted in the removal of Omar al-Bashir.

Protests reflect the broader attachment of African citizens to democratic values. Many protests have in common the defense of existing forms of democracy, however flawed, and a strong commitment to democratic norms and forms, and in particular the right of expression. The analysis of Afrobarometer survey data across 37 countries surveyed in 2021/2023 shows that over two-thirds (68%) of African citizens expressed a preference for democracy over any other form of government. The figure is higher when respondents are presented with specific alternatives; 83% reject one-man rule, 79% reject oneparty rule and 68% reject military rule.<sup>35</sup> As stated by Afrobarometer (2023), “Africans want more democracy, but their leaders are still not listening”. In this regard many protests turn on the legitimacy of public authority; but by the same token such dissent and perceived illegitimacy can also propel popular support for the military, and even for coups. It is noteworthy that the extent of citizens’ opposition to military rule has declined by 10 percentage points over the past decade and that over half (53%) of respondents report being willing to endorse military interventions if elected leaders abuse their power.

> 32 Brockmeyer, M. Fox, J. 2015, _Assessing the Evidence: the effectiveness and impact of public governance oriented multistakeholder initiatives,_ London: Transparency and Accountability Initiative.

> 33 Kinda, Harouna and Thiombiano, Noel. 2024. “Does transparency matter? Evaluating the Impacts of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) on Deforestation in Resource-rich Developing Countries”, _World Development 173_ (forthcoming). 34 See IEG (2019), Manyika et al., (2020), Bussolo (2018).

> 35 <u>https://www.afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis/. See also</u> <mark>Gyimah-Boadi, Emmanuel, Carolyn Logan, and Josephine Sanny. "Africans' Durable Demand for Democracy."</mark> _<mark>Journal of Democracy</mark>_ <mark>32, no. 3 (2021): 136-151.</mark>

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