rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Timing and duration of exposure in
            evaluations of social programs
Impact evaluations aim to measure the
            outcomes that can be attributed to a specific policy or
            intervention.  Although there have been excellent reviews of
            the different methods that an evaluator can choose in order
            to estimate impact, there has not been sufficient attention
            given to questions related to timing: How long after a
            program has begun should one wait before evaluating it?  How
            long should treatment groups be exposed to a program before
            they can be expected to benefit from it?  Are there
            important time patterns in a program's impact? Many
            impact evaluations assume that interventions occur at
            specified launch dates and produce equal and constant
            changes in conditions among eligible beneficiary groups; but
            there are many reasons why this generally is not the case.
            This paper examines the evaluation issues related to timing
            and discusses the sources of variation in the duration of
            exposure within programs and their implications for impact
            estimates. It reviews the evidence from careful evaluations
            of programs (with a focus on developing countries) on the
            ways that duration affects impacts.
Does foreign portfolio investment
            reach small listed firms
Using a unique dataset, the author
            examines the impact of foreign portfolio investment on the
            capital issuance behavior of small listed firms. The author
            finds that foreign portfolio investment is associated with
            an increased probability of small firm security issuance in
            all nations, regardless of property rights development.
            Evidence suggests the mechanism by which this occurs is a
            freeing up of capital in domestic markets when large firms
            utilize the foreign investment directly. Debt levels in
            nations where property rights are more developed increase,
            suggesting that foreign portfolio investment may reach small
            firms through the banking channel as well as capital markets
            in these nations.
Patterns of international capital raisings
This paper documents several new
            patterns associated with firms issuing securities in foreign
            markets that motivate the need for and help guide future
            research. Besides noting that these international capital
            raisings grew almost four-fold from 1991 to 2005, accounting
            for 35 percent of all capital raised through security
            issuances, the paper has three main findings. First, a large
            and growing fraction of capital raisings, especially debt
            issuances, occurs in international markets, but a very small
            number of firms accounts for the bulk of international
            capital raisings, highlighting the distributional
            implications of financial globalization. Second, changes in
            firm performance following equity and debt issuances in
            international markets are qualitatively similar to those
            following domestic issuances, suggesting that capital
            raisings abroad are not intrinsically different from
            domestic ones. Third, after firms start accessing
            international markets, they significantly increase the
            amount raised in domestic markets, suggesting that
            international and domestic markets are complements.
Are skills rewarded in Sub-Saharan
            Africa determinants of wages and productivity in the
            manufacturing sector
Using recent matched employer-employee
            data from the manufacturing sector in 20 Sub-Saharan African
            countries, the authors analyze how the supply of skills and
            legal origin of the country affect the wage setting process.
            The wage analysis yields three main findings. First,
            increasing returns to education, especially for older
            workers, suggest that the expansion of education in Africa
            has reduced returns to education for entrants in the labor
            market. Second, age effects matter not just for returns to
            education, but also for the wage setting process more
            generally. In particular, in civil-law countries, returns to
            seniority are rewarded only after a certain age. Third,
            workers exercise some power in the wage setting process but
            their influence varies by linguistic group. In common-law
            countries, union presence benefits all workers equally, not
            just members, whereas in civil-law countries, only older
            members enjoy higher wages. The authors also contrast wage
            premia with relative marginal productivities for different
            age, occupation, and education categories. The findings show
            that in general, older, highly educated, and highly ranked
            workers receive wage premia that do not reflect a higher
            relative marginal productivity.
China and central and eastern
            European countries : regional networks, global supply chain,
            or international competitors
China has emerged as one of the top
            recipients of foreign direct investment in the world.
            Meanwhile, the successful transition experience of many
            Central and Eastern European countries has also allowed them
            to attract an increasing share of global foreign direct
            investment. In this paper, the authors use a panel data set
            to investigate whether foreign direct investment flows to
            these two regions are complements, substitutes, or
            independent of each other. Taking into account the role of
            host country characteristics - such as market size, degree
            of trade liberalization, and human capital - the authors
            find no evidence that foreign direct investment flows to one
            region are at the expense of those to the other. Instead,
            the results suggest that foreign direct investment flows are
            driven by distinct regional production networks (and thus
            are largely independent of each other) and the development
            of global supply chains (indicating that foreign direct
            investment flows are complementary).
China and central and eastern
            European countries : regional networks, global supply chain,
            or international competitors
WPS4689 Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4689 China and Central and Eastern European Countries: Regional Networks, Global Supply Chain, or International Competitors?

_K.C. Fung Iikka Korhonen Ke Li Francis Ng_ The World Bank Development Research Group Trade Team August 2008
Domestic water pricing with
            household surveys : a study of acceptability and willingness
            to pay in Chongqing, China
In determining domestic water prices,
            policy makers often need to use information about the demand
            side rather than only relying on information about the
            supply side. Household surveys have frequently been employed
            to collect demand-side information. This paper presents a
            multiple bounded discrete choice household survey model. It
            discusses how the model can be utilized to collect and
            analyze information about the acceptability of different
            water prices by different types of households, as well as
            households' willingness to pay for water service
            improvement. The results obtained from these surveys can be
            directly utilized in the development of water pricing and
            subsidy policies. The paper also presents an empirical
            multiple bounded discrete choice study conducted in
            Chongqing, China. In this case, domestic water service
            quality was seriously inadequate, but financial resources
            were insufficient to improve service quality. With a survey
            of about 1,500 households in five suburban districts in
            Chongqing Municipality, this study shows that a significant
            increase in the water price is feasible as long as the
            poorest households can be properly subsidized and certain
            public awareness and accountability campaigns can be
            conducted to make the price increase more acceptable to the
            public. The analysis also indicates that the order in which
            hypothetical prices are presented to respondents
            systematically affects their answers, and should be taken
            into account when designing survey instruments.
Comparing constraints to economic
            stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia: macro estimates
            with micro narratives
This paper re-emphasizes the link from
            structural policies to enhanced macroeconomic stabilization
            using a small structural model estimated on quarterly data
            for Macedonia and Slovakia over 1995-2007. The success of
            macroeconomic stabilization, typically in the hands of
            monetary policy, is not only determined by a suitable choice
            of the nominal anchor, which shapes the reaction function of
            monetary policy, but also the constraints within which the
            monetary policy strives to achieve its objectives. The key
            attributes of the constraints to macroeconomic stabilization
            are economic rigidities and structural shocks. By
            benchmarking the estimated economic rigidities and
            structural shocks faced by Macedonia to those faced by
            Slovakia, the authors find that Macedonia has relatively
            weaker transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, higher
            output rigidity, and a lower exchange rate pass-through, and
            faces larger external shocks. For Macedonia, these
            relatively higher constraints on monetary policy together
            with the chosen exchange rate anchor result in greater
            output and inflation volatility relative to Slovakia. Hence,
            it appears that small, open economies with stronger economic
            rigidities should apply monetary policy regimes that allow
            for more flexible adjustments in external relative prices to
            enhance their macroeconomic stability.
Political violence and economic growth
This paper analyzes the economic growth
            impact of organized political violence.  First, the authors
            articulate the theoretical underpinnings of the growth
            impact of political violence in a popular model of growth
            under uncertainty. The authors show that, under plausible
            assumptions regarding attitudes toward risk, the overall
            effects of organized political violence are likely to be
            much higher than its direct capital destruction impact.
            Second, using a quantitative model of violence that
            distinguishes between three levels of political violence
            (riots, coups, and civil war), the authors use predicted
            probabilities of aggregate violence and its three
            manifestations to identify their growth effects in an
            encompassing growth model.  Panel regressions suggest that
            organized political violence, especially civil war,
            significantly lowers long-term economic growth.  Moreover,
            unlike most previous studies, the authors also find ethnic
            fractionalization to have a negative and direct effect on
            growth, though its effect is substantially ameliorated by
            the institutions specific to a non-factional partial
            democracy. Third, the results show that Sub-Saharan Africa
            has been disproportionately impacted by civil war, which
            explains a substantial share of its economic decline,
            including the widening income gap relative to East Asia.
            Civil wars have also been costly for Sub-Saharan Africa.
            For the case of Sudan, a typical large African country
            experiencing a long-duration conflict, the cost of war
            amounts to $46 billion (in 2000 fixed prices), which is
            roughly double the country's current stock of external
            debt.  Fourth, the authors suggest that to break free from
            its conflict-underdevelopment trap, Africa needs to better
            manage its ethnic diversity. The way to do this would be to
            develop inclusive, non-factional democracy.  A democratic
            but factional polity would not work, and would be only
            marginally better than an authoritarian regime.
Financing rural development for a
            harmonious society in China : recent reforms in public
            finance and their prospects
The Government of China has placed
            strong emphasis on addressing problems related to
            agriculture, farmers, and rural society, with the
            development of a "new socialist countryside"
            designated as a top priority for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan
            (2006-2010).  The financing of public services in rural
            areas will be a key determinant of the Plan's success.
            This report analyzes the performance of the
            intergovernmental fiscal system - the financing of rural
            development through counties, townships, and villages - and
            the impact of recent reforms.  The authors show that
            achieving the government's objectives will require
            channeling substantial new resources to rural areas.  In
            addition, ensuring the effective transfer of resources and
            their efficient utilization will require fundamental reforms
            to a wide range of public institutions, including budget and
            planning processes, personnel management systems, and the
            organization of government agencies. The authors argue that
            a comprehensive reform strategy is needed to address
            fundamental vertical and horizontal imbalances in the
            intergovernmental fiscal system The reforms must reach
            beyond the fiscal system to build improved accountability
            mechanisms to improve public service delivery at the
            grassroots level. And, given China's size and
            diversity, reform efforts must focus on improving incentive
            structures at the county, township, and village levels.
Transportation fuel use, technology
            and standards: The role of credibility and expectations
There is a debate among policy analysts
            about whether fuel taxes alone are the most effective policy
            to reduce fuel use by motorists, or whether to also use
            mandatory standards for fuel efficiency. A problem with a
            policy mandating fuel economy standards is the "rebound
            effect," whereby owners with more efficient vehicles
            increase vehicle usage. If an important part of negative
            externalities from transport are associated with vehicle
            kilometers (accidents, congestion, road wear) rather than
            fuel consumption, the rebound effect increases negative
            externalities. Taxes and standards should be mutually
            supportive because fuel taxes often meet political
            resistance. Over time, fuel efficiency standards can reduce
            political resistance to fuel taxes. Thus, by raising fuel
            efficiency standards now, politicians may be able to pursue
            higher fuel tax paths in the future. Another argument in
            support of fuel efficiency standards and similar policies is
            that standards to a greater extent than taxes can be
            announced in advance and still be credible and change the
            behavior of inventors, firms, and other agents in society. A
            further argument is that standards can be used with greater
            force and commitment through international coordination.
How pro-poor is the selection of
            seasonal migrant workers from Tonga under New Zealand's
            recognized seasonal employer program
Temporary migration programs for
            unskilled workers are increasingly being proposed as a way
            to both relieve labor shortages in developed countries and
            aid development in sending countries without entailing many
            of the costs associated with permanent migration. New
            Zealand's new Recognized Seasonal Employer program is
            designed to enable unskilled workers from the Pacific
            Islands to work in horticulture and viticulture in New
            Zealand for a period of up to seven months. However, the
            development impact on a sending country will depend not only
            on how many workers participate, but also on who
            participates. This paper uses new survey data from Tonga to
            examine the process of selecting workers for the Recognized
            Seasonal Employer program, and to analyze how pro-poor the
            recruitment process has been to date. The findings show that
            recruited workers come from largely agricultural
            backgrounds, and have lower average incomes and schooling
            levels than Tongans not participating in the program.
            Comparing the characteristics of program workers with those
            of Tongans applying to permanently migrate to New Zealand
            through the Pacific Access Category, the program workers are
            more rural and less educated. The program therefore seems to
            have succeeded in creating new opportunities for relatively
            poor and unskilled Tongans to work in New Zealand.
Who is coming from Vanuatu to New
            Zealand under the new recognized Seasonal employer program
New Zealand's new Recognized
            Seasonal Employer program allows workers from the Pacific
            Islands to come to New Zealand for up to seven months to
            work in the horticulture and viticulture industries. One of
            the explicit objectives of the program is to encourage
            economic development in the Pacific. This paper reports the
            results of a baseline survey taken in Vanuatu, which the
            authors use to examine who wants to participate in the
            program, and who is selected among those interested. The
            findings show that the main participants are males in their
            late 20s to early 40s, and most are married and have
            children. Most workers are subsistence farmers in Vanuatu
            and have not completed more than 10 years of schooling. Such
            workers would be unlikely to be accepted under existing
            migration channels. Nevertheless, the program workers from
            Vanuatu tend to come from wealthier households, and have
            better English literacy and health than individuals not
            applying for the program. Lack of knowledge about the policy
            and the costs of applying appear to be the main barriers
            preventing poorer individuals applying.
Rising income inequality in China :
            a race to the top
Income inequality in China has risen
            rapidly in the past decades across regions, between rural
            and urban sectors, and within provinces.  The dynamics of
            divergence across these sub-national areas have taken the
            form of a "race to the top" - meaning that all
            segments of the population, including the poor with low
            education in lagging inland rural areas, have experienced
            gains in average income. The largest gains have been
            registered by those with higher income and education in
            leading coastal urban areas.  Using the China Economic,
            Population, Nutrition and Health Survey data of 1989 and
            2004, we show that the most important factors explaining
            overall inequality are differential returns to schooling and
            sector of employment. A decomposition analysis based on
            household income determination shows that the increase in
            returns to education explains two-thirds of income changes
            in urban areas and one-sixth in rural areas.  The widening
            income gaps are the consequence of higher growth in leading
            urban and coastal areas and that the skilled population has
            benefited more from the economic reforms carried out during
            the last 25 years.  The authors argue that rising income
            inequality can be part of a normal process of development at
            a certain stage, and that the dynamics of spatial income
            divergence in the form of "a race to the top" can
            be desirable to some extent as it unleashes competitive
            pressure and creates incentives for investment in skills.
            Continuing to improve market efficiency and investing in
            people, in particular improving education service in lagging
            areas to poor people, are important for sustainable growth
            and equitable distribution in the long run.
Poverty alleviation and child labor
Does child labor decrease as household
            income rises? This question has important implications for
            the design of policy on child labor. This paper focuses on a
            program of unconditional cash transfers in Ecuador. It
            argues that the effect of a small increase in household
            income on child labor should be concentrated among children
            most vulnerable to transitioning from schooling to work. The
            paper finds support for this hypothesis. Cash transfers have
            small effects on child time allocation at peak school
            attendance ages and among children already out of school at
            baseline, but have large impacts at ages and in groups most
            likely to leave school and start work. Additional income is
            associated with a decline in paid work that takes place away
            from the child's home. Declines in work for pay are
            associated with increases in school enrollment, especially
            for girls. Increases in schooling are matched by an increase
            in education expenditures that appears to absorb most of the
            cash transfer. However, total household expenditures do not
            increase with the transfer and appear to fall in households
            most impacted by the transfer because of the decline in
            child labor.
Dollar a day revisited
The paper presents the first major
            update of the international "$1 a day" poverty
            line, first proposed in 1990 for measuring absolute poverty
            by the standards of the world's poorest countries. In a
            new data set of national poverty lines we find that a marked
            economic gradient only emerges when consumption per person
            is above about $2.00 a day at 2005 purchasing power parity.
            Below this, the average poverty line is $1.25, which we
            propose as the new international poverty line. Relative
            poverty appears to matter more to developing countries than
            has been thought. The authors' proposed schedule of
            relative poverty lines is bounded below by $1.25, and rises
            at a gradient of $1 in $3 when mean consumption is above
            $2.00 a day.