by education and infrastructure in driving the growth-poverty relationship, while Loayza and Raddatz (2010) also provide evidence on the roles played by manufacturing and construction (as well as agriculture).<sup>5</sup> This paper attempts to document relationships between aggregate and sub-national growth (and regional convergence), that may serve as an intermediate step towards a more complete understanding of these issues.<sup>6</sup> This paper shows that recessions and recoveries in Türkiye that appear to be similar at a macroeconomic scale may be driven by very different changes at more disaggregate spatial scales. Moreover, the evidence shows that the nature of sector dynamics at lower geographic levels has varied implications on regional convergence and the formation of agglomeration economies.

An additional contribution of this paper is to document relationships that involve the triangulation of official administrative and remote-sensed data when estimating changes in subnational economic activity over the business cycle. Overall, we find that changes in nighttime light luminosity are correlated with changes in physical activity — a 10 percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a 3.5 percent increase in real construction output, a 1.5 percent increase in real manufacturing output, and a 0.8 percent increase in real gross domestic product.<sup>7</sup> Since the focus of this paper is on understanding the relationship between shocks to sub-national activity and the corresponding aggregate fluctuations, we adjust for unobserved differences in levels and trends across the 81 provinces analyzed when estimating the relationships between sub-national changes in economic activity and changes in nighttime light luminosity.

It is worth noting that part of the association may come from capturing business cycle effects and other changes that are common to all provinces in a given year. When we remove the effect of these annual changes (by using year fixed effects), we find that idiosyncratic province-level shocks to construction and manufacturing activity are still associated with changes in (subnational) nighttime lights, in contrast to shocks to the service and agriculture sectors.<sup>8</sup> This study also sheds light on how agglomeration dynamics (as estimated by changes in the rate of growth in nighttime luminosity in urban cores and their peripheries) relate to aggregate economic expansions and contractions. We show that, in Türkiye, peripheral areas typically 5 Lopez (2004) also shows that financial crises may contribute to the growth-poverty relationship. Related, Davalos et al. (2015) show that regional convergence in Mexico was driven by both the growth of poorer municipalities and the more pronounced impacts of recessions — engendered by external factors like the 2008/09 global financial crisis — in the more developed areas.

6 A sub-national analysis may provide insights into how aggregate national growth relates to both poverty and inequality.

> 7 This paper use temporal deflators, while no spatial deflators were used in the GDP or GVA calculations.

8 It is possible that changes in nighttime lights capture co-movement in sectoral activity between provinces. Indeed, the results in Table 4, taken together, are consistent with this hypothesis.

3