rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Second, and perhaps more fundamental, expenditure-based approaches to targeting may not adequately capture welfare, particularly in a setting where there is not uniform agreement as to the mapping between material well-being and welfare. At the same time, local community members may be able to more effectively discriminate between poor and non-poor based on broader notions of welfare not captured by expenditures alone. This idea is nicely illustrated in a series of studies in the Indian village of Palanpur (Bliss and Stern, 1982; Lanjouw and Stern, 1991, 1998)<sup>18</sup> and is also borne out in an experimental study on targeting within Indonesian villages (Alatas et al, 2012). While such evidence does not mean that policymakers should abandon expenditure-based targeting, it does argue for continuing to explore ways to incorporate other dimensions of poverty as well as feedback from community members.<sup>19</sup>

# **Misclassification Errors**

As described earlier, the UDB registration survey collected basic individual- and household-level information that was used in the ranking stage to estimate socioeconomic status following a PMT approach. However, several indicators were not included in the UDB registration survey due to time and financial constraints. In addition, when estimating PMT scores, it is common to avoid using indicators that are difficult to observe directly by enumerators and therefore prone to misreporting by respondents attempting to increase their chance of receiving program benefits.<sup>20</sup> These “partially hidden assets” can be easily misreported during a survey but are often commonly verifiable within the community.

In this section, we assess the performance of the UDB that would be observed if the PMT-based ranking process utilized additional information on household ownership of partially hidden assets. Taking advantage of this additional information available in the SUSETI, we construct “negative

> 18 Lanjouw and Stern (1991), for example, discuss the case of an ascetic who owns many assets but spends very little out of choice rather than constraints, something apparent to community members but perhaps not to outside observers.

> 19 In fact, the targeting criteria used in the past in Indonesia included measures of well-being not typically available in household survey inputs to PMTs. Implemented by the National Family Planning Coordination Board, these criteria included, for example, questions on whether all members of the family were able to freely worship according to their religion and whether family members were able to participate in community social activities. These non-material measures of wellbeing are potentially important and yet largely excluded from most PMT-based targeting surveys today.

> 20 This is a higher risk when respondents are aware that the survey is being conducted for the purpose of selecting beneficiaries of social assistance programs. In Colombia, Camacho and Conover (2011) provide evidence that when the PMT formula becomes known there is an increase in misreporting to increase one’s chances of receiving program benefits.

22
Cappellari (2019) approach is based on family triads with father and two children in a family. We take the oldest two children from those families where the number of children is more than 2. To ensure that the siblings are not too far apart, we follow Bingley and Cappellari (2019) and restrict their age gap to a maximum of 12 years. The intergenerational transmission is estimated as the average of the persistence between father and the rst child, and between father and the second child in the sample. The birth cohorts are dened based on the birth year of the older sibling in a household. For the estimation of the share of intergenerational component, we do not impose the stationary distributions assumption across generations used by Bingley and Cappellari (2019) as this assumption is rejected by our data.<sup>29</sup> We also nd that the estimated share can be more than 100 percent if we incorrectly impose stationary distribution assumption within the Bingley and Cappellari (2019) approach. The estimates from the Mazumder (2008) method for the share of intergenerational component are implemented using Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) in a mixed eects model.

# (5) Evidence: Geography of Sibling Correlation and Evolution over Three Birth Cohorts

# (5.1) Geography of Sibling Correlation across Regions and Nations

The estimates suggest that there are substantial regional variations in intergenerational educational mobility as measured by sibling correlation. Figure 1 presents the average sibling correlation estimates for six regions of the world. The country specic estimates are reported in Table 1. The estimates suggest that intergenerational educational mobility for the 1960s-1990s birth cohorts is the lowest in the Latin American and Caribbean countries with an average sibling correlation of 0.65.<sup>30</sup> Compare this with an average of 0.41 for developed countries noted before. This evidence on Latin America and Caribbean is interesting as the countries in this region also experienced some of the highest income inequality during this period (De Ferranti (2004)). Thus, high cross-sectional inequality was coupled with low intergenerational mobility, a doubly undesirable distributional outcome. Among the countries in

> 29In the income data used by Bingley and Cappellari (2019), the null hypothesis of stationary distributions is not rejected. Stationary distributions are also assumed by Solon (1999).

> 30The only other study that reports estimates of sibling correlation in schooling for Latin American countries is Dahan and Gaviria (2001). However, as discussed earlier, their estimates are not comparable to our estimates or other estimates in the literature.

17
Policy Research Working Paper 5500

# **Abstract**

This paper proposes a novel method of isolating fluctuations in public spending that are likely to be uncorrelated with contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks and can be used to estimate government spending multipliers. The approach relies on two features unique to many low-income countries: (1) borrowing from the World Bank finances a substantial fraction of public spending, and (2) actual spending on World Bankfinanced projects is typically spread out over several years following the original approval of the project. These two features imply that fluctuations in spending on World Bank projects in a given year are in large part determined by fluctuations in project approval decisions made in previous years, and so are unlikely to be correlated with shocks to output in the current year. World Bank projectlevel disbursement data are used to isolate the component of public spending associated with project approvals from previous years, which in turn can be used to estimate government spending multipliers, in a sample of 29 aid-dependent low-income countries. The estimated multipliers are small, reasonably precisely estimated, and rarely significantly different from zero.

This paper is a product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at akraay@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
NIGER’S INFRASTRUCTURE: A CONTINENTAL PERSPECTIVE

# Information and communication technologies

## **Achievements**

Niger implemented a number of reforms to boost competition in the ICT sector. The liberalization of the mobile market allowed the licensing of a second operator in 2001, a third in 2004, and a fourth in 2008. The landline incumbent, SONITEL,<sup>13</sup> was privatized in 2001. The government also awarded a global service license to France Telecom in 2007, allowing it to provide any ICT service (for example, fixed line, mobile, and Internet). ARM, one of the few multisector regulatory agencies in Africa,<sup>14</sup> was established to supervise the telecommunications sector.

The country has benefited from a huge expansion in the coverage of and access to mobile communications. Whereas the global system for mobile communications (GSM) signal was almost nonexistent in 2000, around 50 percent of the population was covered by the GSM signal in 2008 (but this is still below the average, 63 percent, for comparable peer countries). Mobile penetration increased from less than 1 per 100 inhabitants in 2000 to 12.8 per 100 in 2008—half the average for LICs and one-tenth the average for MICs. Growing mobile penetration is starting to have an impact on the economic and social development of the country and helping to reduce poverty (Aker 2008). One study on the Nigerien grain sector found that the introduction of mobile phones has reduced price asymmetries, lowered search costs, enhanced grain transport efficiency, and contributed to poverty reduction.

**Table 14. Benchmarking ICT indicators**

|||Low-income<br>countries||Niger||Middle-<br>income<br>countries|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Indicator|Unit|2008|2000|2005|2008|2008|
|GSM coverage|% of population under signal|63|—*|22|46|96|
|Mobile phone|Subscribers/100 people|24|0.02*|2.4|12.8|95|
|International bandwidth|Bits/capita|24.8|0.04|2.4|7|209.3|
|Internet|Users/100 people|3.5|0.04|0.3|0.7|7.0|
|Landline|Subscribers/100 people|0.8|0.2|0.2|0.4|9.2|
|Price of mobile basket|$ per month|11.0|17.0|16.8|12.8|9.2|
|Price of fixed-line basket|$ per month|10.4|10.8|12.4|11.8|11.4|
|Price of fixed broadband|$ per month|287|—|131|52|57|
|Price of a call to [[the United<br>States?]]|$ per minute|0.7|0.6|0.7|0.5|0.6|
|Price of an inter-Africa call|$ per minute|0.9|—|0.4|0.7|1.1|

Source: Adapted from ARM, Zain, and Orange reports, and World Bank ICT At-a-Glance.

Note: Converted to $ using annual average exchange rates (2010 figures using 2009 exchange rate). Penetration figures derived from population data of the National Statistical Institute. GSM = global system for mobile communications. * The first digital GSM network launched in 2001. Prior to that, there was an analog mobile network. — = Not available.

> 13 Société Nigérienne des Télécommunications. SONITEL’s privatization took place in December 2001, with 51 percent of shares being awarded to a Libyan-Chinese consortium; the government of Niger maintained 49 percent ownership.

> 14 ARM is also responsible for transport, energy, and water supply.

31
availability, labor regulation, tax rate burdens, land acquisition. The subscript c for these variables indicate that it is based on city-level average rather than a firm’s answer.

Overdraft Facilityc Trade Creditc Inf Competititonc Outagec Webc Security Costc Capacity Agglomerationc City share of firms with overdraft facility. Based on WBES calculation.

City average of the proportion of total annual sales of goods and services that are paid for after delivery. Based on WBES calculation.

City share of firms who say that they directly compete with informal firms. It is a measure of the importance of the informal sector and its competition with the formal sector. Based on WBES calculation.

City share of firms that experienced a power outage in the survey year. Based on WBES.

City share of firms that answer that they use websites to conduct business.

City average of the share of a firm’s sales paid for security. Based on WBES.

The share of firms whose number of employees exceeding 50, as a proxy of capacity agglomeration. Computed based on sample firms.

**Table 2. Summary Statistics**

||N|mean|sd|p10|p25|p50|p75|p90|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|L-growth|97669|0.041|0.143|-0.084|0.000|0.007|0.096|0.179|
|L-growth for high-growth firms|5,412|0.370|0.197|0.170|0.230|0.321|0.454|0.627|
|L-growth for non-high-growth firms|92,257|0.022|0.113|-0.096|0.000|0.000|0.074|0.135|
|LP-growth|70068|-0.026|0.299|-0.270|-0.126|-0.040|0.051|0.199|
|LP-growth for high-growth firms|3,582|0.655|0.452|0.190|0.305|0.570|0.815|1.361|
|LP-growth for non-high-growth firms|66,486|-0.063|0.239|-0.279|-0.133|-0.047|0.032|0.130|
|TFP|33288|-0.133|1.351|-1.856|-1.032|-0.137|0.709|1.549|
|lnLP|85803|9.534|1.554|7.431|8.496|9.632|10.635|11.517|
|Export share|106384|0.100|0.253|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.400|
|Foreign share|106284|0.075|0.246|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.030|
|OwnLargest|103061|0.795|0.264|0.400|0.510|1.000|1.000|1.000|
|L0 20-100|97930|0.300|0.458|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|1.000|
|L0 100+|97930|0.153|0.360|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|
|Age 6-10|106338|0.221|0.415|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|
|age 10+|106338|0.635|0.481|0.000|0.000|1.000|1.000|1.000|
|BigCity|107777|0.481|0.450|0.000|0.000|0.474|1.000|1.000|
|Small|107777|0.714|0.452|0.000|0.000|1.000|1.000|1.000|
|young|106338|0.365|0.481|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|1.000|
|rich|102222|0.488|0.500|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|1.000|
|cityBig|85700|0.476|0.499|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|1.000|
|service|107777|0.446|0.497|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|1.000|
|exporter|106384|0.219|0.413|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|
|High-k|107,716|0.486|0.500|0.000|0.000|0.000|1.000|1.000|
|**Country level**|||||||||
|lnPop1|122|15.764|2.001|12.779|14.802|15.999|17.111|18.260|
|lnGDPPC1|121|7.583|1.264|5.920|6.596|7.666|8.578|9.277|

8
**Figure 5 – Total Income Effect: Direct and Indirect Effects of Tobacco Taxes (Tobacco price increase, medical expenditure, and working years gained) , by Decile**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 3.0<br>2.5<br>2.0<br>1.5<br>1.0<br>0.5<br>0.0<br>1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10<br>Deciles<br>Low-bound elasticity Medium elasticity Upper-bound elasticity<br>Income Gains (%)<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Estimates based on Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey–HSE 2016. _Note:_ Estimates assume a price shock of 25 percent.

# **6. Discussion**

Despite the wealth of research on the negative effects of tobacco consumption and on the benefits of various public policy mechanisms aimed at reducing tobacco use, questions remain about the progressivity or regressivity that these entail. The implementation of tobacco taxes is considered one of the most effective ways to discourage tobacco use. Nonetheless, this policy has a direct impact on household incomes, especially among low-income households that allocate a larger proportion of their budget to buying smokes. Moreover, the net effect of an increase in tobacco taxes depends on the price elasticity of this product across different segments of the population. The price elasticity determines the magnitude of the income shock and the benefits gained from a decline in tobacco consumption.

To assess the net welfare gains from this policy, one must look beyond the direct impact on household income and consider other benefits of lower tobacco consumption, including a reduction in medical costs and an increase in the potential working years associated with good health. Thus, it is critical to justify the maintenance or intensification of the use of tobacco taxes by means of a demonstration of the aggregate monetary gains or losses generated. Moreover, the policy should focus on low-income households that are more likely to smoke and, hence, tend to be the most affected by consumption taxes. One of the main motivations for this study is the ability to weigh the main costs and benefits of tobacco taxation to determine if, in the end, the policy is regressive.

The results show that, considered by itself, a tobacco price increase through higher taxes generates negative income variations across all groups in the Russian population because overall prices increase. These negative effects are particularly acute in the scenario of lower-bound elasticity, and they are more moderate as elasticity expands in absolute terms. Based on the assumptions behind a more comprehensive approach, including benefits through lower medical expenses and an increase in working years, the overall monetary effect reverses and is positive and progressive among all deciles.

13
is motivated largely by the search for a spouse. This search is associated with an assessment of potential partners, leading to changes in partners, or in unprotected sex to ensure the potential spouse is fertile (Clark, Poulin, and Kohler 2009; Poulin and Beegle 2011). In some countries in South and Eastern Africa, the rate of new infections rises during this search process (Magruder 2011; Glynn et al. 2003).

The study consists of 1,183 initially never-married young women and men and was designed to follow them into marriage.<sup>6</sup> Three annual household surveys were conducted (2007, 2008, 2009), with two Partnership Interview surveys conducted mid-way between the annual surveys.<sup>7</sup> The data contain detailed information on partnering behavior as well as socioeconomic conditions, including asset ownership and family background. Since this age group is highly mobile, the MTM study made additional efforts to track sample respondents who relocated after the baseline round in 2007 (Beegle and Poulin 2013). This is especially important since marriage itself often results in moving to a new village or town. Tracking proved important for ensuring re-contact rates; more than one-quarter of respondents moved during the course of the panel. For this analysis, we include respondents interviewed during all three annual household surveys. This sample consists of 1,009 respondents, 529 women and 480 men. In the 2008 round, a random sample of respondents was offered a HIV test.<sup>8</sup> Of the 1,009 respondents, 531 (53 percent) were randomly offered VCT. The test was administered by trained and certified VCT counselors in the privacy of each respondent’s residence. The test result was offered

> 6 Sixty enumeration areas were randomly selected from a sample of 215 areas stratified by distance to main trading centers. The sampling frame for respondents within the enumeration areas was stratified by age for men and women. More information on the sample design is available at sites.google.com/site/mtmalawiproject/mtmbackground. 7 In between the three main summer rounds 2007-2009, there was an interim survey round for a two-thirds of the sample randomly selected and then interviewed with a modified questionnaire. We do not use this round for this analysis for two reasons. First, the roughly 5-6 months between summer 2008 and the interim round in 2009 may be too short for the behavior changes we examine. Second, we want to examine results for the complete sample. 8 Of the 174 respondents who are not in either round 2 or 3, three-quarters were not found and the rest refused to participate. The attritors have comparable socio-demographic characteristics as the tracked sample (results not reported).

8
-72-

# VII. Government Programs for Poverty.

Poverty alleviation efforts in Mexico are coordinated and<sup>supervised by</sup> the Programa Nacional de Solidaridad (Pronasol), initiated<sup>by the Salinas</sup> Administration in December of 1988. Pronasol is an umbrella<sup>organization with</sup> the aim of developing health, education, nutrition, housing, employment, infrastructure and other productive projects targeted on the poorest groups. Since its inception the program has grown bot'. in terms<sup>of size (as measured</sup> by expenditures), and in terms of the programs it encompasses. At the time<sup>of</sup> writing, Pronasol is still adapting existing programs and developing<sup>new ones;</sup> changes are also being made within the different government agencies responsible for implementing various poverty alleviation efforts.<sup>In what</sup> follows I concentrate only on giving a description of the main<sup>programs (sub-</sup> section VII.l) and, in the light of previous results, offer some<sup>suggestions</sup> for improvements (sub-section VII.2).

## VII.J Descripti .n of Current Programs.

Pronasol covers a wide range of activities through different specific programs. Broad participation of the beneficiaries is sought in setting priorities. But at the same time, beneficiaries are made responsible for results and, depending on specific program characteristics, are at times expected to co-finance projects with own resources. Decision-making and implementation is in principle expected to be the joint effort of the government and program participants. To provide a brief description<sup>of</sup> Pronasol specific activities, it is useful to classify them<sup>in four broad</sup> areas: 1. food support programs, 2. productive programs, 3. social<sup>services</sup> programs, and 4. infrastructure programs.

9 1. Food Sunport Programsal. There are four mechanisms through which the government provides food support: (i) general subsidies,<sup>(ii) targeted</sup> coverage for the urban poor, (iii) targeted coverage for the rural<sup>poor, and</sup> (iv) targeted coverage for vulnerable groups. The total<sup>cost of these</sup> programs in 1988 was about (US) $ 900 million, out of which<sup>about 500 million</sup> went to the first category. Preliminary figures show that in 1989 1,400 million was spent on these programs, with about 900 million allocated to untargeted subsidies.

119The following discussion is based on World Bank (1990a).