increased access to drinking water and school enrollment among children 5-14, and improved mental health, although statistical significance of these findings varied over time. An evaluation of the short 2013-14 winter cash transfer program run by UNHCR and partner organizations found that recipients spent most of the funds aimed at heating supplies on food and water, despite the fact that they also received food vouchers from WFP (IRC 2014). The program increased school enrollment, had a multiplier effect for the local economy, and did not have an appreciable effect on prices. As in other studies, majority of the beneficiaries preferred cash to inkind assistance. Caria et al. (2020) examine the effect of labeled cash transfers (worth $92, provided lump-sum) to help with job search of Syrian refugees in Jordan and find no effects on employment after six weeks.

Our study aims to assess the causal impacts of ESSN, a large cash transfer program with more than 1.7 million international refugees as beneficiaries, on consumption expenditures, indebtedness, diversity and frequency of food consumption, strategies to cope with shocks, school enrollment of children, and spontaneous return to country of origin. The next section describes the influx of refugees into Turkey and the policy responses. Section 3 describes the data and outlines the pre-registered primary outcomes. Section 4 goes into detail for the various threats to identification of causal effects, while Section 5 describes the empirical strategy. Sections 6 & 7 present the main findings of impact and their heterogeneity, while section 8 concludes.

# **2. Influx of refugees and policy responses**

More than 5.5 million people fled Syria since the onset of the civil war in 2011, moving mainly to neighboring countries as refugees. Turkey is currently home to 64% of this population, hosting nearly 3.6 million Syrian refugees as of May 2020.<sup>6</sup> When the first inflow of refugees began arriving in Turkey in 2011, Turkey implemented an “open-door policy” towards refugees, providing Syrians seeking refuge with “temporary protection” status, with the legal right to stay in the country and have access to basic services including health care and education.

With no end to the Syrian conflict throughout the following years, the Syrian refugee numbers rose from 14,000 in 2012, to 1.5 million in 2014 and 2.8 million by the end of 2016. Turkey implemented the same “open-door policy” to migrants from other countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Somalia. In total, the number of international refugees in Turkey reached 4 million by 2020, the highest in the world. Less than 2% of this population (63,000 people) currently live in the refugee camps, while the rest reside among the host community. An estimated 415,000 Syrians were born in Turkey since 2011,<sup>7</sup> and approximately 92,000 Syrian refugees were granted Turkish citizenship.<sup>8</sup>

> 6 - Directorate General of Migration Management (DGMM) https://en.goc.gov.tr/temporary <u>protection27.</u> 7 Based on figures provided by the Head of Migration Department, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Interior https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/415-000-syrian-babies-born-in-turkey-since-2011/1510211.

> 8 - - Based on figures provided by the Minister of Interior of Turkey, <u>https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/turkey granted citizenship-to-over-92-000-syrians/1548106.</u>

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