# **<u>Appendix table A4: Village fixed effects regressions for winter crop area</u>**

||<br>**Imagery ba**|<br>**sed crop damag**|<br>**e indicators**|**ACL**|**ED conflict indi**|**cators**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**Dummy**|**Intensity**|**Area**|**Dummy**|**Intensity**|**Fatalities**|
|Conflict indicator|<br>-513.661***<br>(16.649)|<br>-1862.813***<br>(64.742)||<br>-305.846***<br>(13.601)|<br>-578.830***<br>(30.015)||
|Lagged conflict indicator|-699.878***<br>(24.991)|-2620.708***<br>(76.371)||-296.976***<br>(20.022)|-517.607***<br>(45.371)||
|DA or fatalities (F)|||-0.280***|||0.418*|
|growing period|||(0.024)|||(0.232)|
|Lagged DA or F|||-0.632***|||-0.997**|
|growing period|||(0.029)|||(0.428)|
|DA or F|||-0.648***|||-0.700***|
|planting and dormancy|||(0.020)|||(0.181)|
|<br>Rayon level GDD|1.257***|1.360***|<br>1.352***|1.487***|1.649***|<br>1.880***|
||(0.214)|(0.213)|(0.213)|(0.217)|(0.217)|(0.218)|
|Rayon level GDD squared|<br>-0.001***<br>|<br>-0.001***<br>|<br>-0.001***<br>|<br>-0.001***<br>|<br>-0.001***<br>|<br>-0.001***<br>|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Total rain: planting (mm)|4.793***|5.223***|4.192***|5.193***|5.459***|6.226***|
||(0.270)|(0.268)|(0.271)|(0.274)|(0.274)|(0.275)|
|Total rain: dormancy|<br>1.031***|<br>1.050***|<br>0.900***|<br>1.262***|<br>1.146***|<br>1.009***|
|(mm)|(0.296)|(0.295)|(0.295)|(0.300)|(0.300)|(0.303)|
|Total rain: growing (mm)|-1.357***|-1.508***|-1.498***|-1.715***|-1.819***|-2.045***|
||(0.363)|(0.362)|(0.362)|(0.368)|(0.368)|(0.371)|
|Planting rain squared|<br>-0.033***|<br>-0.037***|<br>-0.030***|<br>-0.037***|<br>-0.039***|<br>-0.046***|
||(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|
|Dormancy rain squared|-0.002*|-0.001*|-0.001|-0.002*|-0.001|-0.001|
||(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|
|Growing rain squared|<br>0.001|<br>0.001|<br>0.001|<br>0.002|<br>0.002|<br>0.002*|
||(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|
|Zero rain days: fall|3.037|2.562|7.923**|0.683|1.556|1.200|
||(3.209)|(3.200)|(3.204)|(3.253)|(3.261)|(3.284)|
|Zero rain days: winter|<br>3.613***|<br>3.778***|<br>4.381***|<br>5.872***|<br>5.782***|<br>4.972***|
||(1.248)<br>|(1.245)<br>|(1.245)<br>|(1.264)<br>|(1.268)<br>|(1.277)<br>|
|Zero rain days: spring|40.598***|39.653***|36.773***|39.733***|37.051***|33.908***|
||(2.293)|(2.285)|(2.283)|(2.327)|(2.328)|(2.342)|
|Planting zero rain days|-0.058|-0.051|-0.122**|-0.021|-0.027|-0.009|
|squared|(0.048)|(0.048)|(0.048)|(0.049)|(0.049)|(0.049)|
|Dormancy zero rain days|-0.077***|-0.078***|-0.110***|-0.116***|-0.123***|-0.123***|
|squared|(0.021)|(0.021)|(0.021)|(0.021)|(0.021)|(0.021)|
|Growing zero rain days|-1.036***|-1.012***|-0.963***|-1.012***|-0.958***|-0.892***|
|<br>squared|(0.044)|(0.044)|(0.044)|(0.045)|(0.045)|(0.045)|
|<br>year==2020|<br>-68.741***|<br>-70.399***|<br>-60.011***|<br>-81.023***|<br>-74.590***|<br>-61.401***|
||(14.823)|(14.784)|(14.786)|(15.036)|(15.073)|(15.174)|
|year==2021|-79.819***|-80.499***|-52.705**|-71.939***|-53.887**|-15.638|
||(21526)|(21472)|(21439)|(21847)|(21865)|(21975)|
|year==2022|.<br>-106.375***|.<br>-107.024***|.<br>-118.580***|.<br>-107.430***|.<br>-109.293***|.<br>-113.429***|
||(13.403)|(13.366)|(13.365)|(13.583)|(13.618)|(13.719)|
|year==2023|<br>-164.721***|<br>-166.447***|<br>-160.158***|<br>-160.896***|<br>-162.945***|<br>-155.189***|
||(14.095)|(14.060)|(14.057)|(14.288)|(14.327)|(14.424)|
|Constant|<br>117.946|<br>100.886|<br>51.410|<br>24.148|<br>-23.978|<br>-90.438|
||(123.326)|(122.964)|(122.919)|(124.913)|(125.215)|(126.131)|
|Mean of dep. var.|830.096|830.096|830.096|830.096|830.096|830.096|
|<br>STD of dep. var.|1,137.696|1,137.696|1,137.696|1,137.696|1,137.696|1137.696|
|No. of obs. (VCs)|50,010|50,010|50,010|50,010|50,010|50,010|
|R<sup>2</sup>|0.890|0.890|0.890|0.887|0.886|0.885|

_Source:_ Original table for this paper. _Note:_ Conflict indicators and periods for DA or F in different stages of vegetative development are as defined in table 1 in the main text. Standard errors in parentheses: * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, and *** p < 0.010. ACLED = <mark>Armed Conflict Location and Events Data; DA = area damaged due to conflict; F = fatalities; GDD = growing degree days; mm = millimeters; VC = village council.</mark> 35