rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
19

- On average, the rate of growth of private consumption ir the EIAL countries recovered in the late 1980S to the rate achieved in the 1970C -- and the rate in the late 19809 was higher in total and on a per capita basis in comparison with other groups of countries.

- The socioectaomic indicators of the status of the poor in developing countries or in the EIAL group did not deteriorate in the 19809 on average. The indicators of nutrition improved, and average protein intake continued to rise from 1983-84 to 1986 in all categories of countries, with and without adjustment lending. Infant and child mortality, indicators of the longer run health status of the poor, continued to improve on averag= for country categories with and without adjustment lending.

- Data on health and education point to the deterioration of the situation of the poor. The shares of central government expenditures for health and education declined on average iu the EIAL countries having data. Some of the decline may have occurred because better targeting of public expenditures left middle- and upper-income groups paying for more of the provision of these services or because other levels of government took responsibility for some of these expenditures. In education, there were declining rates of primary school enrollment for the EIAL countries. This trend is inconsistent with restoring sustainable long-term growth, which requires strengthening the human capital base, an important input in growth. In health, the coverage of immunization generally increased in all country groups, a trend that probably accounts for much of the continuing decline in the rates of infant and child mortality.
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66
Policy Research Working Paper 7194

# **Abstract**

This paper uses the 2010/11 Income and Expenditure Survey for South Africa to analyze the progressivity of the main tax and social spending programs and quantify their impact on poverty and inequality. The paper also assesses the redistributive effectiveness of fiscal interventions given the resources used. Because it applies the Commitment to Equity methodology, the results for South Africa can be compared with other middle-income countries for which the framework has also been applied. The main results are twofold. First, the burden of taxes—namely the personal income tax, the value added tax, excises on alcohol and tobacco, and the fuel levy—falls on the richest in South Africa and social spending results in sizable increases in the incomes of the poor. In other words, for the components examined, the tax and social spending system is overall progressive. Second, for these elements, fiscal policy in South Africa achieves appreciable reductions in income inequality and poverty. Moreover, these reductions are the largest achieved in the emerging market countries that have so far been included in the Commitment to Equity project. Although fiscal policy is equalizing and poverty-reducing, the levels of inequality and poverty that remain still rank among the highest in middle-income countries. Looking ahead, as South Africa grapples with slow economic growth, a high fiscal deficit, and a rising debt burden, addressing the twin challenges of high inequality and poverty will require not only much improved quality of public services, but also higher and more inclusive economic growth.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Global Practice Group and the Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http:// econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at ginchauste@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
# **1. Introduction**

During the Vietnam War (1959‐1975), 72 million liters of herbicide were sprayed between 1961 and 1971 to defoliate forests and destroy food crops. Several herbicide mixtures were used, each named after the color of the stripe painted on the storage barrels. Agent Orange, the best known, accounts for 65 percent of the total (Stellman et al., 2003). Some mixtures (Agent Orange, Purple, Pink and Green) are characterized by a high concentration of 2,4,5‐ trichlorophenoxyacetic acid, contaminated with 2,3,7,8‐tetrachlorodibenzo‐p‐dioxin (henceforth dioxin). An estimated total of 366 kilograms of pure dioxin was eventually sprayed, while the World Health Organization sets the tolerable daily intake to be in the range of 1 to 4 picograms (1 pg = 10<sup>‐15</sup> kg) per kilogram of body weight. Furthermore, the documented persistence of high levels of dioxin in Vietnamese food, soil and human tissues suggests that toxicity may be lingering well after the end of the war.<sup>1</sup> However, establishing any health impacts of herbicide spraying is challenging. During the class action suit filed by the Vietnamese Association of Victims of Agent Orange/Dioxin against companies that supplied herbicides to the US military in Vietnam, senior district judge Jack Weinstein emphasized “ _[t]he fact that diseases were experienced by some people after spraying does not suffice to prove general or specific causation_ ” (quoted in Stone, 2007). The Institute of Medicine publishes biennial updates on scientific knowledge about the effects of exposure to herbicides used during the Vietnam War (Institute of Medicine, 2007). A significant body of literature focused on US veterans. Unfortunately, the wealth of information used in US studies has no equivalent in Vietnam, a country with an estimated purchasing‐power‐parity GDP of $2,600 per capita in 2007, compared to $45,800 for the US (CIA, 2008).

This study explores whether, in the absence of detailed hospital records, a multipurpose household survey of the Vietnamese population (N=158,019) with self and proxy‐reported information on individual morbidity can shed light on the health impacts of military herbicide spraying on civilians 30 years later. Combined with detailed information on US and allied military missions, the household dataset is used to analyze the relationship between measures

> 1 Evidence of persisting high levels of dioxin in food is provided by Schecter et al. (2003, 2004), and Schecter, Malish and Ryan, (2003); for evidence of persisting dioxin in soil, see Schecter, Elitzer and Hiters (1989) and Tuan et al. (2007). Finally, Schecter et al. (1987, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006), the CDC (1988), Kahn et al. (1988), Quynh, Dai and Thom (1989) and Phuong et al. (1996) document the presence of dioxin in human tissues.

2
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<!-- Start of picture text --> 8.5<br>8<br>/<br>|<br>D<br>2<br>/] 7 ~<br>— Contested districts<br>Govt districts<br>—— Taliban districts<br>7<br>4 -2 0 2 4<br>z_temperature2018<br><!-- End of picture text -->
-7.

index comprising father's occupation, father's education, mother's education and family income; Annex A reports the factor loadings for the index: MATHACNH - jo + pal SES + e

# PORTACHj - P' + Pjl SES + ej

The social distribution of achievement in each school is characterized in terms of two parameters: an intercept and one regression slope. SES is a continuous variable centered around its school mean. Tne two parameters m y be interpreted as follows: dR - Mean mathematics (Portuguese) achievement for students in school j.

- fjl The degree to which social class differences among students relate to achievement (the social class differe.atiation effect).

11. The school that is effective in equalizing the distribution of achievement would be characterized as simultaneously having a high average level of achievement, pp and a weak differentiation effect with regard to social class (i.e., a small value for _Pj1)._ These eff..cts are hypothesized to vary acrors schools as a function of school-level differences in management, organizational structure and peer group influence (compositional effects).
23

# AULE 3

# Money Demand Estimates (Ml1

# Ouarterlv Data 1981-1988

|Constant|**In**Y|**_vT_**|Tt-|Mlt.|R1/DW|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|1.664|0.903|-0.617|||0.230|
|(0.45)|(2.91)|(1 02)|||1.78|
|-0.175|0.719|-1.337||0.327|0.281.|
|(0.09)|(2.16)|(1.69)||(1.39)|2.10'|
|1.256|0.937||-0.566||0.226|
|(0.33)|(2.91)||(0.92)||2.22|
|1.217|0.911||-0.542|0.028|0.227|
|(0.31)|(2.45)||(0.84)|(0.14)|2.26'|

Notes: t- values **are** in parentheses. .h values for equations including the lagged dependent variable cannot be calculated since formula produces an imaginary result. Ml = Money as in IFS, deflated by CPI. In log terms. Mlt.i - Ml lagged one quarter. Y = four quarter moving average of quarterly production estimates deflated by CPI.

rT = ln CPIt-ln CPI,. 1<sup>.</sup> Vt. = IT lagged one quarter.
|||- Dominican Republic<br>- Grenada<br>- Haiti<br>- Jamaica<br>- Montserrat<br>- Netherlands Antilles|-<br>-<br>-<br>-<br>-<br>-|||- Djibouti<br>- Eritrea<br>- Mayotte<br>- Seychelles<br>- Somalia<br>- Sudan|DJI<br>-<br>-<br>-<br>-<br>SDN|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||- Puerto Rico<br>- Saint Kitts and Nevis<br>- Saint Lucia|-<br>KNA<br>-|128|XSC|Rest of South African Customs Union<br>- Lesotho<br>- Swaziland|-<br>LSO<br>SWZ|
|||- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines<br>- Trinidad and Tobago<br>- Turks and Caicos Islands<br>- Virgin Islands British<br>- Virgin Islands U.S.|-<br>-<br>-<br>-<br>-|129|XTW|Rest of the World<br>- Antarctica<br>- Bouvet Island<br>- British Indian Ocean Territory<br>- French Southern Territories|-<br>-<br>-<br>-<br>-|
|76|XEF|Rest of EFTA<br>- Iceland<br>- Liechtenstein|-<br>ISL<br>-|||||

**Table B2:** Ad Valorem Equivalents for Non-Tariff Measures  for Agricultural Goods and Manufacturing Goods **for the GTAP countries**<sup>**32**</sup>

||**Country**|**Agricultural**<br>**goods**|**Manufacturing**<br>**goods**|
|---|---|---|---|
|**ALB**|Albania|7,0%|0,6%|
|**ARG**|Argentina|7,1%|3,9%|
|**AUS**|Australia|28,8%|4,2%|
|**BFA**|Burkina Faso|19,2%|0,5%|
|**BLR**|Belarus|17,7%|4,6%|
|**BOL**|Bolivia, Plurinational Republic of|19,6%|5,1%|
|**BRA**|Brazil|20,8%|11,6%|
|**CAN**|Canada|11,4%|2,4%|
|**CHE**|Switzerland|14,9%|0,7%|
|**CHL**|Chile|17,2%|1,3%|
|**CHN**|China|6,1%|5,1%|
|**CIV**|Cote d'Ivoire|27,8%|18,8%|
|**CMR**|Cameroon|5,8%|1,1%|
|**COL**|Colombia|30,5%|6,4%|
|**CRI**|Costa Rica|0,7%|0,1%|
|**EGY**|Egypt|29,9%|23,7%|
|**ETH**|Ethiopia|0,0%|1,1%|
|**GHA**|Ghana|10,9%|1,1%|
|**GTM**|Guatemala|36,1%|5,5%|

> 32 Table B3 includes only values different from zero.

90
- van Meijl, H. and van Tongeren, F.: 1999, Endogenous International Technology Spillovers and Biased Technical Change in the GTAP Model, GTAP Technical Paper 15, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.

- Wise, M. and Calvin, K.: 2011, GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Technical Description of Modeling Approach, Technical report, Pacic Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (US).

- Wise, M., Calvin, K., Thomson, A., Clarke, L., Bond-Lamberty, B., Sands, R., Smith, S., Janetos, A. and Edmonds, J.: 2009, Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy, Science 324(5931), 1183.

- Yu, W., Hertel, T., Preckel, P. and Eales, J.: 2004, Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems, Economic Modelling 21(1), 99 129.

45
The overall satisfaction results across all users in various economies is high on average. Actually, users of in-house and commercial systems yield very similar results where LIC and LMIC as well as HIC show generally a high satisfaction with their DMS compared to UMIC countries.

Another interesting observation is that when the respondents were asked about the overall satisfaction with their current DMS, the results were on average higher than the average satisfaction calculated as a result of each individual DMS feature regarding connection, integration, etc.

**Figure 8: Satisfaction with the Debt Management System: Individual Attributes**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Access to historical information<br>Maintenance and upgrade cost<br>Create new instruments / transactions<br>Straight‐Through<br>Integration (FO, MO, BO)<br>Connection (Tr, Excel, Bloomb)<br>Speed<br>Reporting features<br>Security of data<br>User‐friendliness<br>0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00<br>Commercial Public DMS In‐house<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: World Bank Survey on Debt Management Systems Despite the general satisfaction with the systems, the users still indicated a few areas that their current DMS is not covering. Respondents using a commercial system emphasized the lack of integration with the central bank to receive treasury debt issuance auction results. According to the survey results, system and IT limitations were listed as the main reasons for the lack of integration. Other reasons may include organizational policies and resource capacity, which the survey did not cover. Other issues raised in the survey were the connectivity with other platforms and lack of STP. Users were also asked regarding features they would like to see in their system that are not essential and they currently do not have. Improved report generation and reliability were listed as the most desired feature that needs improvement. Speed, deal capture and connection with other platforms were also brought up.

Perhaps for these and possibly more reasons, 72 percent of all users indicated their current software could use an upgrade while 19 percent prefer an entirely new system. Around 70 percent of users believe upgrading their existing system or installing a new system would cost less than a million while 22 percent believe the cost would be above two million dollars. Interestingly, the amount that the users indicated their respective institution could allocate toward such effort does not deviate too much with the cost. 80 percent of respondents believe their institution could allocate up to one million and 15 percent above two million dollars. Regarding the length to install a new DMS, more than 40 percent of the user believe that the implementation would take one to two years, while another close to 40 percent believe it could take more than two years to do so.

27
23 are broadly consistent with the possibility that the effect of labor market turbulence is mostly due to missed experience for individuals who would have worked otherwise.

In Web Appx. Table A.18, we use the same econometric framework to study how the returns (based on 15 years) correlate with the mean unemployment rate (UR) or labor force participation rate (LFPR) during the cohorts’ first five years of experience. We tend to find significant, negative correlations with UR or LFPR variables for youth (15-24) but not for the generally active population (15+) (cols. (1)-(4)). However, UR and LFPR being correlated and the sample being small, we cannot assess how much of the negative impact of recessions is coming from a higher UR and/or a lower LFPRh (cols. (5)-(8)).<sup>40</sup> Alternatively, we can study whether recession experience has lower returns than non-recession experience. For each respondent, we separate their potential work experience into experience during recession years and experience in non-recession years, again using the -1%, -3% and -5% thresholds. We re-run the main regression (eq. (1)) using 5-year bins for each type of experience. We plot the estimated coefficients in Web Appx. Fig. 7(a), finding no wage growth effects of recession experience. Finally, we also find significant negative effects of recessions on the returns to education (Web Appx. Table A.19). Once we account for the fact that the returns to education are on average three times higher than the returns to experienced based on the 0-15 bins, the effects of recessions on experience and education are broadly similar.<sup>41</sup>

# **5.3. Economic Transitions and Returns to Work Experience**

40 countries had a communist regime at one point. We have information on the time when their transition out of communism began.<sup>42</sup> Since the transition involved structural or institutional changes that may have made pre-transition experience obsolete, we hypothesize that countries that recently transitioned out of communism should have lower returns than non-communist economies and this difference should

> 40Note that data (source: _World Development Indicators_ of the World Bank) is available for fewer country-years than before since URs and LFPRs were not systematically measured before the 1990s.

> 41Kahn (2010) find large, negative wage effects of graduating in a bad economy in the United States whereas we focus on the global effects of recessions on the returns to experience, i.e. to what extent more experienced workers are paid more than less experienced workers. We do not study the effects on wage levels.

> 42We obtain this information from Wikipedia (2019) and the Wikipedia webpage of each country. For example, we use 1975 for China, 1986 for Vietnam, 1989 for Poland, 1991 for Russia, and 1992 for Albania.
WPS4159

# The Use of Derivatives to Hedge Embedded Options: The Case of Pension Institutions in Denmark

Jeppe Ladekarl, Regitze Ladekarl, Erik Brink Andersen and Dimitri Vittas<sup>∗</sup> The World Bank

**Abstract:** The main purpose of this paper is to examine the growing use of derivatives by Danish pension institutions as a risk management tool to hedge embedded options on their balance sheets. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s it was a widespread practice for Danish pension institutions to guarantee a minimum interest rate on new pension policies. With the new millennium global interest rates declined steeply and equity markets came crashing down. Suddenly the guarantees on pension contracts were in the money. The policies already written could not be changed, leaving liabilities and assets mismatched, profits in the red, and capital reserves drained. Out of necessity, and in some cases virtue, Danish pension institutions turned in scale to derivatives, allowing for a more active approach to hedging, asset and liability management, and even profit generation. Through the use of derivatives, pension institutions have avoided the need to renegotiate their guaranteed contracts with policy holders. They have succeeded as an industry in transforming their pay-off curves and have emerged with better matched asset/liability positions and lower exposure to interest rate risk. But the expanded use of derivatives also raises some risk management and regulatory issues, such as operational and counterparty risks as well as effective internal control systems and regulatory oversight.

**JEL Classification Code:** G11, G15, G22, G23, G28, G31

**Keywords:** Defined Benefit, Defined Contribution, Risk Management, Swaps, Hedging, Dynamic Capital Projection, Asset and Liability Management, Liability Driven Investment

## World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4159, March 2007

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> ∗ Jeppe Ladekarl (jladekarl@worldbank.org) is from the World Bank’s Treasury Department , Regitze Ladekarl and Erik Brink Andersen are independent consultants, and Dimitri Vittas is a consultant formerly with the World Bank. The authors are grateful to Messrs. Glaessner, Jonasson, Lybek, and numerous regulators, pension managers and investment bankers in London and Copenhagen who shared their insights and experiences and provided comments and suggestions.