# <u>Table 4 Sensitivity analysis</u>

||<br>||||De<br>|pendent<br>|variables<br>||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Specification|<br>Budget on each<br>type of program (%<br>|Δ<br>|GD|P<br>|Δ Emplo<br>rate<br>|yment<br> <br>|Δ Inactiv<br>|ity rate<br>|Δ Pover<br>|ty rate<br>|
||of GDP)|Coef.||_S. Err._|Coef.|_S. Err._|Coef.|_S. Err._|Coef.|_S. Err._|
||Income protection|0.193||_0.271_|-0.175|_0.201_|0.127|_0.153_|0.092|_0.116_|
|**I**|Job protection<br># of Countries|1.108<sup>**</sup><br>|134|_0.501_|0.324<br>134|_0.198_<br>|-0.382<sup>**</sup><br>13|_0.156_<br>4|-0.438<sup>***</sup><br>13|_0.152_<br>2|
||Income protection|0.151||_0.288_|||||0.195|_0.151_|
|**II**|Job protection|0.974<sup>*</sup>||_0.525_|||||-0.488<sup>***</sup>|_0.178_|
||# of Countries||134||||||13|4|
||Income protection|0.145||_0.289_|||||0.175|_0.142_|
|**III**|Job protection<br># of Countries|1.132<sup>**</sup><br>|134|_0.502_|||||-0.435<sup>**</sup><br>13|_0.171_<br>4|
||Income protection||||||||0.219|_0.139_|
|**IV**|Job protection<br># of Countries||||||||-0.697<sup>**</sup><br>11|_0.301_<br>3|
||Income protection|0.166||_0.320_|-0.321<sup>*</sup>|_0.192_|0.217|_0.155_|0.128|_0.140_|
|**V**|Job protection<br># of Countries|1.279<sup>**</sup><br>|115|_0.607_|0.184<br>115|_0.212_<br>|-0.317<sup>*</sup><br>11|_0.169_<br>5|-0.514<sup>**</sup><br>11|_0.201_<br>3|
||Income protection|0.153||_0.318_|||||0.161|_0.178_|
|**VI**|Job protection<br># of Countries|1.356<sup>**</sup><br>|115|_0.598_|||||-0.616<sup>***</sup><br>11|_0.227_<br>5|
||Income protection|0.421||_0.340_|-0.022|_0.222_|0.046|_0.200_|0.021|_0.149_|
|**VII**|Job protection<br># of Countries|1.547<sup>**</sup><br>|109|_0.677_|0.352<br>109|_0.251_<br>|-0.386<sup>*</sup><br>10|_0.215_<br>9|-0.569<sup>***</sup> <br>10|_0.208_<br>7|
||Income protection|0.378||_0.359_|||||0.067|_0.195_|
|**VIII**|Job protection|1.680<sup>**</sup>||_0.669_|||||-0.650<sup>***</sup>|_0.238_|
||# ofCountries||109||||||10|9|

## <u>Description of scenarios</u>

_I – In this specification, all the dependent variables are expressed as a difference between the value observed in 2020 and the value observed in 2019._ _II – In this specification, the GDP and poverty headcount rate ($5.5 a day line) are expressed as a difference between the value observed in 2020 and the pre-pandemic projection for the same year._ _III - In this specification, the GDP and poverty headcount rate ($5.5 a day line) are expressed as a difference between the value observed in 2021 and the pre-pandemic projection for the same year._ _IV - In this specification, the poverty headcount rate is expressed as a difference between the value observed in 2020 and the value observed in 2019, using the international poverty line corresponding to a country’s income group ($1.9 a day for lowincome countries, $3.2 a day for lower-middle income countries and $5.5 a day for upper-middle income countries) and the national poverty line for high-income countries._ _V - In this specification, all the dependent variables are expressed as a difference between the value observed in 2020 and the value observed in 2019, and the level of pre-pandemic social insurance coverage is included as an additional control variable. VI - In this specification, the GDP and poverty headcount rate ($5.5 a day line) are expressed as a difference between the value observed in 2021 and the pre-pandemic projection for the same year, and the level of pre-pandemic social insurance coverage is included as an additional control variable._ _VII - In this specification, all the dependent variables are expressed as a difference between the value observed in 2020 and the value observed in 2019. The level of pre-pandemic social assistance coverage is included as an additional control variable. VIII - In this specification, the GDP and poverty headcount rate ($5.5 a day line) are expressed as a difference between the value observed in 2021 and the pre-pandemic projection for the same year and the level of pre-pandemic social assistance coverage is included as an additional control variable._ 34