motivation to use technology does not always translate into more effective learning, particularly if the use of technology and the desired learning outcomes are not closely aligned.

In developing country contexts,<sup>21</sup> researchers have examined the effectiveness of remote learning in Anglophone Africa. Bosh (1997) presents an assessment of interactive radio instruction based on 23 years of operational history. Muralidharan et al. (2019) find that well-designed technologyaided personalized instruction programs can improve productivity in delivery of education.<sup>22</sup> When integrating adaptive technology at a national scale, especially in a context where the basic enabling conditions have been addressed, it is possible to find promising results. A recent national study conducted in Uruguay shows a positive effect of 0.20 standard deviations in the gain of mathematics learning among children who had used an adaptive math platform compared with students who had not. In addition, higher effects were observed in students from lower socioeconomic status (Perera & Aboal, 2019). A common underlying theme in all studies is that there are many moving pieces that must be in place and well-aligned for remote learning to deliver on its promise.

COVID-19 has forced governments to rapidly roll-out or scale-up remote learning programs, and it is unlikely that the ideal pre-conditions for such a rapid roll-out were in place across the world. As such our estimations rely on assumptions on the effectiveness of alternative learning modalities that governments are providing during school closures.

While we reference this literature, it is important to point out that this body of work did not assess the impact of interventions rolled out at full scale as an emergency response. This literature also did not measure the effectiveness of these programs at a time when the welfare and emotional wellbeing of families were deteriorating as rapidly as we are experiencing with the COVID-19 crisis. The twin shocks to health and the economy are unprecedented. For instance, we know that this crisis has affected the socio-emotional and mental well-being of families. Domestic abuse charities have reported a spike in calls made to helplines since lockdown measures were announced (Nicola et al., 2020; Alradhawi et al., 2020). Student learning is highly likely to be further adversely impact due to this socio-emotional effect of COVID. The twin shocks to health and the economy are unprecedented.

_What do we know about disruptions to schooling and their effects on learning?_ Variation in instructional time – be it planned changes in the school day<sup>23</sup> or unscheduled closings<sup>24</sup> – have been documented to have an effect on student performance. The empirical literature has documented the impacts that teacher strikes<sup>25</sup> and crises ranging from pandemics<sup>26</sup> to famines<sup>27</sup> and floods<sup>28</sup> to hurricanes<sup>29</sup> and earthquakes<sup>30</sup> and to the Asian financial crisis<sup>31</sup> and

> 21 Murphy and Zhiri, eds. (1992). 22 Muralidharan et al. (2019) 23 Cattaneo et al. (2016). 24 Marcotte and Hemelt, (2008). 25 Belot and Webbink (2010), Wills (2014), and Jaume and Willén (2019). 26 Meyers and Thomasson (2017). 27 Dercon and Porter (2014). 28 Thamtanajit (2020). 29 Sacerdote, (2012). 30 Andrabi et al. (2020) and Ceyhan and Ceyhan (2007). 31 Cameron (2009).

6