rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
# **1 Introduction**

Maritime shipping is indispensable for international trade: ships transport 70% of the world’s trade value and 80% of the world’s trade weight (UNCTAD, 2015, 2017). Maritime shipping dates back to at least 5,000 years ago, and its history is well documented, including multiple waves in its development facilitated by technological advancements, wars, trade with colonies, etc. (Stopford, 2009). One of the more recent waves occurred in the 1950s when containerized shipping revolutionized maritime shipping. This technological breakthrough had a pronounced impact on trade volumes, patterns, and infrastructure (Hummels, 2007; Levinson, 2008; Blonigen and Wilson, 2018). The rate of change has further intensified in the last two decades with rapid fleet upgrades and expansions, improvements in infrastructure (port upgrading, expansions of Panama and Suez Canals), and changes in regulation and market structure.

In the last two decades (i.e., 2000-2020), the availability of qualitatively new and much more disaggregated data sets prompted a surge in empirical research of maritime shipping. This paper summarizes this research and complements it with novel data analysis and stylized facts. Understanding of the complexity underlying factors of the maritime shipping is even more important in light of the recent disruptions and high freight rates in maritime shipping caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. While we do not directly explore the most recent events, our review might be instrumental for this research as well.<sup>1</sup> Our focus is on container and dry-bulk maritime shipping.<sup>2</sup> Containerized maritime shipping is the dominant mode of international transportation: it accounts for two-thirds of total world trade. On the other hand, dry bulk shipping is used for commodities, and it accounts for about half of the total seaborne trade by weight.

We start by documenting several vital trends in maritime shipping. First, motivated by recent papers on the back-haul effects in maritime shipping (Wong, 2020; Brancaccio et al., 2020), we show that maritime trade is highly imbalanced across regions and that the magnitudes of the imbalances

> 1Please see the UNCTAD discussions for more information on the recent crisis at https://unctad.org/meeting/adhoc-expert-meeting-maritime-supply-chain-crisis.

> 2Other types of maritime shipping include various types of Tankers, Ro-Ro (Roll-on/roll-off), general cargo, and reefer vessels.
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# FOOTNOTES

1. David de Ferranti, "Paying for Health Services in Developing Countries: An Overview," 'Jorld Bank Staff Working Paper No. 721; Education and Training Department, 'Financing Education in Developing Countries: A Policy Paper," draft, December 16, 1985; and "Rural Water Supply and Sanitation: A Framework for Improving Investments," WUD draft, November 5, 1985.

2. ibid., de Ferranti, SWP 721.

3. WUD draft, "Rural Water Supply and Sanitation: A Framework for Inproving Investments," November 5, ;985 and DeAnne Julius, "Public Enterprise Price Formation in West Afxica), WAPPE, February 1986.

4. R.J. Saunders, J.J. Warford and P.C. Mann, "Alternative Concepts of Marginal Cost for Public Utility Pricing: Problems and Application in the Water Supply Sector," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 259, May 1977.

5. Edilbertt' L. Segura, Y. T. Shetty and Mieko Nishi-izu, eds., "Fertilizer Producer Pricing in Developing Countries: Issues **and** Approaches," Industry and Finance Series, Vol. 11, 1986.

6. A. Walters, The Economics of Road User Charges, World Bank Staff Occasional Paper No. 5. (Johns Hopkins Press: Baltimore), 1968 and E. Bennathan and A. Walters, Port Pricing and Investment PolicX for Developing Countries, (Oxford University Press: New York), 1979.

7. L.L. Alston, "Railway Lending by the World Bank" and F. Sander, "Railway Traffic Costing," Transportation Projects Department Report No. 472, April 1974.

8. op. cit. , Saunders, Warford and Mann, SWP 259.

9. Yves Albouy, 'Guidelines for Marginal-Cost Analysis of Power Systems," Energy Department Paper No. 18, June 1984.

10. ibid., Albouy, 1984.

11. David de Ferranti, "Paying for Health Services in Developing Countries: An Overview," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 721, February 1985.

12. The World Bank, Education and Training Department, Financing Education in Developing Countries: A Review of Issues and Options), 1986.

13. Dernne Julius, "National Gas Utilization Studies: Methodology and Application," Energy Department Paper No. 24, September 1985.

14. INDD4 memorandum, "Sector Work: Initiating Memorandum of Telecomunuications Pricing," February 13, 1986.
The data for each AD user country are contained in a Microsoft Excel 2003 Workbook file ~ (named as in table 2.1 and posted at <u>http://www.brandeis.edu/ cbown/global_ad/</u> ), within which are typically four spreadsheets of data: 1) a master spreadsheet with basic antidumping case investigation information on dates and outcomes; 2) a spreadsheet containing information on the Harmonized System (HS) products under investigation; 3) a spreadsheet containing information on domestic firms involved in the antidumping petition; and 4) a spreadsheet containing information on foreign firms named in the antidumping petition.

We have also attempted to remove “empty” cells in the spreadsheets, as these affect the ability to easily transform the spreadsheets into machine-readable ASCII files for merging into other data sets. Thus a cell entry for missing data (i.e., data that we are confident exists, but which we were unable to find) was filled in with an “MI.” On the other hand, cell entries that were empty because there was no relevant data (e.g., because it never reached that phase of the antidumping investigation) are filled in with a “.” In some instances, this admittedly required judgment. For example, consider the failure to find any information regarding consideration of the revocation of an antidumping measure – if no information was found, we typically assumed that the cell entry was not relevant (i.e., “.”) as opposed to the antidumping measure had been removed and the data was simply missing (i.e., “MI”).

The rest of section 2 details how each of these four basic spreadsheets is formatted for consistency across the AD-user countries.

# **2.1 The “Master” Spreadsheet for Each Country – AD-CTY-Master**

Each country has a master spreadsheet presenting a common set of information. The AD-CTY-Master<sup>11</sup> spreadsheet has the same 21 initial column headings (Columns A through T) for each of the AD using countries. For each country, columns U through (END) may contain unique additional variables depending on the country’s nuances of its own antidumping process and the availability of reported

> 11 CTY is replaced with the 3-letter UN country code for each of the 15 user countries in the data set.

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# 2.  Profiling the NEETs: Who Are They, and What Are Their Life Conditions?

The transition from education to the world of work is one of the most important life decisions young people face. Of particular concern are those who are neither employed, in school, nor in a training program of any sort. Fully one-fifth of the global population between the ages of 15 and 24 fall in this NEET category.

In 2019, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released the latest update of its own perspective on NEETs. The OECD defines NEETs as people aged between 15 and 29 who are neither enrolled in a formal educational or training program, nor in paid employment (defined as at least one hour per week) during the relevant survey reference period. As Table 1 shows, in 2018 the average NEET rate for the 15-29 years-old population across OECD countries is around 13 percent, ranging from 6.1 percent in Iceland to 26.5 percent in Turkey. Southern European countries, Mexico and Turkey exhibit the highest NEET rates, whereas Northern and Central European countries show the lowest rates. The 2018 OECD report highlights that in almost all OECD countries, NEET rates are higher for women than for men; the OECD average rate for young women is almost 4 percentage points higher than the rate for young men. In Mexico and Turkey, female rates are around 25 percentage points higher than male rates. By contrast, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Luxembourg, Portugal, and Switzerland show a NEET rate higher for males than for females yet the difference is negligible.

**Table 1: NEET Rates for 15- to 29-Year-Olds in OECD Countries**

|**Country**|**2006**|**2011**|**2018** **Country**|**2006**|**2011**|**2018**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Iceland**|5.1|9.8|6.1 **Estonia**|11.4|15.2|12.7|
|**Netherlands**|6.2|6.9|7.0 **Poland**|17.4|15.5|12.7|
|**Malta**|13.6|12.1|7.3 **United States**|12.9|15.9|12.7|
|**Switzerland**|10.0|21.9|8.1 **Belgium**|13.9|13.9|12.8|
|**Luxembourg**|8.6|7.2|8.4 **OECD average**|14.3|15.9|13.2|
|**Norway**|7.9|8.5|8.7 **Israel**|30.0|27.6|13.3|
|**Sweden**|10.5|9.1|8.9 **Hungary**|17.0|18.5|13.5|
|**Germany**|13.6|11.0|9.2 **Cyprus**|11.9|14.8|14.9|
|**Slovenia**|10.8|10.7|9.7 **Slovak Republic**|19.1|19.1|15.1|
|**Japan**|12.0|11.7|9.8 **Croatia**|15.8|19.1|15.6|
|**Czech Republic**|14.1|12.7|10 **France**|15.2|16.4|16.1|
|**New Zealand**|12.0|14.3|10.2 **Romania**|16.5|19.5|17.0|
|**Lithuania**|–|18.0|10.5 **Bulgaria**|23.9|24.7|18.1|

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infrastructure as one of the determinants and binding constraints of growth performance, 2) the importance of infrastructure in order to improve the business climate and encourage private participation in the economy, and 3) the effect of infrastructure on private investment.

The first strand of the literature attempts to identify the determinants and constraints of economic performance in Egypt over time. Using diagnostic approach developed by Hausmann, et al. (2005) and growth regressions, Dobronogov and Iqbal (2005)<sup>6</sup> and Enders (2007) find that inadequate infrastructure is not among most urgent binding constraints in Egypt, but inefficient financial intermediations and high public debt are critical growth constraints.<sup>7</sup> Kamaly (2007) analyzes the sources of growth in Egypt for the last three decades (1973-2002)<sup>8</sup> . Using a new consistent estimate for capital stock and growth accounting technique, he claims that capital stock seems to be the most important source of growth, and the downward trend in real output growth since the 1980s could be attributed to the slowdown in capital growth, including infrastructure.

Nabli and Vefganzounes-Varoudakis (2007) investigate the linkage between economic reforms, human capital, infrastructure, and economic growth in the MENA region.<sup>9</sup> Employing growth regressions that include different composite indicators of infrastructure<sup>10</sup> on panel data consisting of 44 countries from 1970 (or 1980) to 1999, they find that the contribution of infrastructure on growth is substantial. At the country level, comparing the period for 1980-89 to 1990-99, the contribution of infrastructure to growth in Egypt fell from 1.0 to -0.9, while that of the average of MENA countries fell from 1.4 to 1.0. The drop in the contribution from infrastructure in Egypt was due to the decline in their measure of road networks experienced in the 1990s.

> 6 They conducted growth regressions that determine Egypt’s GDP per capita growth for 1986-2003 on key variables, but they did not include infrastructure as one of explanatory variables.

> 7 Egypt has a dense road network, including the new Cairo-Alexandria highway, major ports in Suez and Alexandria, and a new airport in Cairo. Electricity is cheap and highly subsidized, as is natural gas (Enders, 2007).

> 8 Kheir-El-Din and Moursi (2003) also examined the growth experience in Egypt by using the data from 1960-1998.

> 9 They generate the aggregate indicators for economic reforms, human capital, and physical infrastructure using principal component analysis.

> 10 The physical infrastructure indicator is based on the density of the road network (in km per km2) and the number of phone lines per 1,000 people (both are in logs).

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safeguard or antidumping investigation will return an affirmative determination. The Argentine study provides an explicit demonstration<sup>3</sup> . Exchange rate overvaluation was part of the situations in Chile and Mexico mentioned in the above reflections, and the Brazil study also describes an incident in which overvaluation brought intense pressure for import protection. The record shows, however, that when the exchange rate was appropriately adjusted, use of trade defenses quickly receded.

# **IV. RATIONALE FOR ANTIDUMPING MECHANISMS**

The rationale for antidumping enforcement in Latin American countries tends to focus on the economic concept of distortion. A distortion exists when the price of a product does not equal its cost of production in a competitive environment. In modern economics, as opposed to the mercantilist economics from which the concept of dumping is drawn, the national economic interest, or economic welfare, would be higher if the distortion did not exist. A distortion thus justifies government intervention in the market.

When they established their procedures, Latin American governments were aware from analysis of antidumping systems in traditional users such as the United States and the European Union that dumping in its legal sense—even more than in its theoretical sense—did not identify circumstances in which government intervention would advance the national economic interest. Antidumping enforcement would use neither the exporter’s home market price nor the constructed cost<sup>4</sup> as the measure of what price should be. Instead, the price that enforcement attempted to reach would be the prevailing international price in competitive markets. Such interpretation followed the promise that governments had made to industry when they created the antidumping mechanisms; industry would be expected to adjust to normal international competition but would be protected from extraordinary situations.

The latitude provided by WTO rules allowed governments to accommodate at two levels the mismatch between the economic theory on which WTO rules were based and the concept that justified government intervention. At the level of antidumping investigation, WTO rules

> 3. Econometric studies based on information from other countries confirm that the business cycle influences the use of antidumping and other trade defenses. For example, see Leidy (1997) and Takacs (1981). 4. The WTO rules sanction constructed cost formulas that allow generous overstatement of what normal business accounting practices would determine.

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Stiglitz, J. E., "Alternative Theories of Wage Determination and Unemployment in LDC's: The Labor Turnover Model," _Quarterly Journal of Economics,_ 88:194-227.

Tokman, V.E. (1989), "Policies for a Heterogeneous Informal Sector in Latin America," _World Development,_ July.

Tokman, V.E. (1992) _Beyond Regulation, The Informal Economy in Latin America,_ Lynne Rienner, Boulder.

Turnham D. and D. Erocal (1990), "Unemployment in Developing Countries, New Light on an Old Problem," Technical Paper, OECD Development Centre.

U.S. Dept of Labor (1992) _The Informal Sector in Mexico._ U.S. Dept of Labor (1993) _Work Without Protections: Case Studies of the Informal Sector in Developing Countries._ World Bank (1995), "Labor and Economic Reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean," _Regional Perspectives on World Development Report._ 42
discussion). We continue to use the external us instrument for transport costs. We view this approach as an additional robustness check – that takes care of possible endogeneity issues with our trade and input-output controls – on top of the previous two strategies that rely on either ‘filtering’ or the use of external instruments and standard 2sls iv.

It should be clear that is very difficult to fully solve all endogeneity issues, given the sectoral level of aggregation at which we work. Yet, the panel nature of our data – which allows for the inclusion of industry fixed effects – our extensive set of time-varying controls, as well as the construction and instrumentation strategies for our main variable of interest, transport costs, all help us to be reasonably confident that we identify causal effects of changes in transport costs _Ti_ , _t_ on our measure _γi_ , _t_ ( _d_ ) of geographic concentration.

# **Results 5**

We first estimate several variants of equation (5), which differ by the sets of industry characteristics and controls they include.<sup>15</sup> We only report results using the unweighted do _K_ -density cdf as our measure of concentration. the or geographic Using employment sales-weighted measures yields similar results (see Table 13 in the Supplementary Appendix S.4).

## **.1 Baseline results 5**

Table 4 summarizes our baseline results. **Model 1** reports the raw unconditional correlation without controls, whereas **Model 2** reports within estimates without controls. As can be seen, the coefficient on the trucking costs is negative and highly significant. In words, falling trucking costs are associated with the geographic concentration of industries. We then progressively add in **Models 3** to **6** the variables suggested by the model developed in Section 2 to control for international trade exposure, input-output links, and other industry characteristics.

Starting with **Model 3** , we add our trade variables (import and export exposure by country groups) to the baseline case. As can be seen, rising import shares are across the board associated with falling geographic concentration. The (non-oecd) Asian share of imports, which we use as a proxy for low-wage countries, has the largest estimated coefficient in absolute value and is the most statistically significant. One explanation for the dispersive effect of import competition is that firms become more footlose as they source a larger share of their intermediates from abroad and no longer rely on (possibly localized) domestic suppliers. Another explanation, for which Holmes and Stevens (2014) provide empirical evidence, is that import

> 15We performed a Hausman test for (5) to confirm that the appropriate estimator is a fixed-effects estimator and not a random-effects estimator. The result of the test strongly confirms (at the 1% level) that the fixed-effects estimator is the preferred specification. Note also that we work with the universe of manufacturing industries, so that there is no sampling variability in industries that would warrant the use of the random-effects estimator.

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Table **3:** Parameters **for the** Now Tarlff **Realme** 1937 <!-- Start of picture text --> Ittmo Rates<br>Inputs 1J<br>Inputs for agricultural products 6X<br>Capital goods 6%<br>Final consumer coods 2 / bo - 90X<br><!-- End of picture text --> 1 Minimum **rate.** _J_ **Medicino and** nome other **health** products **are taxed at IX.** Sourco: **Ministry** of **Finance.** 22. The tariffs range between 1Z - 90Z. High rates are applied for shoes, garments and few other final consume-: goods--for which there is domestic production. Furthermore, more than one rate applies to some products depending on their end-use.

23. Three decrees define surcharges, which are levied on a CIF basis. They provide high and dispersed nominal and hence effective protection to the industrial sector. With surcharges, the maximum tariff rate equals 125Z. The following table indicates the different rates of surcharges and the decrees which provide the legal framework for those charges:

**Table 4:** Rates of Surcharges. 1988

|**Decree No.**|Itemo|X|
|---|---|---|
|**Decree**<br>**No.**64|Inputs|**650**|
||**Final**consumer products|_10.0_|
|Docroe<br>**No.**85/4|All products|10.0|
|**Decree**<br>**No. 59**|All products|20-0|

Source: Ministry of Finance.

24. Collections from imports are reduced, however, owing to the existence of a large number of exemptions. Over 40 laws regulate the granting of exemptions under imports. As a result, only about one-fourth of imports are subject to tariffs, leading to a fiscal revenue loss of about 22 of GDP annually. About one-quarter of imports generate virtually all revenues from imports. The exemptions increase une level of effective protection for industry and raise variability in both nominal and in effective protection.

25. A large number of products and institutions are exempted from the payment of import duties. These include: agriculture inputs, public
without access to formal education to gain employable skills (Biavaschi et al. 2012). Despite their popularity, virtually no evidence exists on the effects of such programs on participants.<sup>1</sup> This paper makes three distinct contributions to the literature. First, experimental evaluations of training programs are scarce, particularly for developing countries.<sup>2</sup> To our knowledge, only three recent studies conduct randomized evaluations in a developing country context.<sup>3</sup> Card et al. (2011) and Attanasio et al. (2011) explore the impacts of training programs for youth in the Dominican Republic and Colombia (respectively), which had both classroom and on-the-job training components. Attanasio et al. find fairly large effects on probability of employment and wages, while Card et al. find no effect on employment, and modest effects on earnings. These studies were conducted in middle-income countries with larger formal sectors, and the programs targeted wage employment. Our study concerns on-the-job development of technical skills in an environment where self-employment, rather than wage employment, is the norm. Blattman et al. (2012) find that youth given a cash transfer in Uganda invest in vocational training and tools, which then translate into higher levels of employment and earnings.

A second important contribution of this paper lies in our treatment and analysis of program drop-outs. Several published evaluations of job training programs report that a large fraction of beneficiaries randomly assigned to receive training fail to show up, or discontinue training after a short period, and this complicates the evaluation method. Heckman et al. (2000), reviewing five different experimental evaluations of employment and training programs in the U.S., report rates of drop-out as high as 79%. The Card et al. (2011) Dominican Republic study reports that 17% of their treatment group failed to attend training, and that follow-up data was

> 1 The ILO {{1299 ILO 2012/a}} provides an extensive review of qualitative and quantitative studies of informal apprenticeship programs.  Monk et al. {{1300 Monk,Courtney 2008/a}}, working in Ghana with descriptive data, find that returns to informal apprenticeships are high for those who have low levels of education, but fall as formal education increases.  We are unaware of any experimental evidence on apprenticeships. 2 Roughly 10% of evaluations in the developed world have made use of randomized controlled trial methodology {{1142 Card,David 2010}}.

> 3 A related (although recent and largely unpublished) literature deals with the returns to business training and financial literacy; however these trainings are designed to deliver generic business skills, rather than tradespecific skills.  See Cole et al. {{1308 Cole,Shawn 2010/a}}, Bruhn & Zia {{1306 Bruhn,Miriam 2011/a}}, de Mel et al. {{1304 de Mel,Suresh 2011/a}}, Drexler et al. {{1305 Drexler,Alejandro 2011/a}}, Karlan & Valdivia {{1309 Karlan,Dean 2011/a}}, and Calderon et al. {{1307 Calderon,Gabriela 2013/a}}.

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