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# AFRIC

African statistics on international migration do not provide a strong basis for estimating or projecting international migration flows for most countries in that region. For the most part the statistics (where they exist at all) are incomplete and out of date. Illegal migration is very common and largely unrecorded in many parts of Africa and refugee movements are a substantial component of migration flows. For these reasons, the study of international migration in Africa is "a frustrating exercise" (Adepoju, 1988:20). The future course of migration is also difficult to predict because of poor data, shifting international conflicts, natural disasters, economic uncertainties and changing laws governing immigration.

Most countries in Africa neithner want, nor accept, immigrants for permanent resettlement (United Nations, 1982). In much of sub-Saharan Africa, however, borders have traditionally been fairly open and undocumented migration is often considered "routine" (Adepoju, 1988). According to Adepoju (1979), consolidation of national boundaries after political independence has had only a minimal effect on migration, particularly in West Africa. National borders are often considered as artificial frontiers. This situation was implicitly recognized in the ECOWAS Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons, Right of Residence and Establishment. Under this protocol, three stages have been set up to liberalize international movement among the 15 ECOWAS countries (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 1987a). The first phase, initiated in 1980, guarantees citizens of member countries who have valid travel documents the right of entry to other member countries without a visa for up 90 days. The second phase, which started in 1986, gives community citizens the right of residence in other member countries. The third phase, which is slated to begin in 1991, allows the "establishment" of community citizens in other member countries.

Despite a tradition of relatively free movement, international migration is increasingly being viewed as an assault on national sovereignty (especially in tropical Africa) and immigration controls have been tightened significantly in recent years (Makinwa-Adebusoye, 1987b). Nevertheless, a recent World Bank review of international migration in sub-Saharan Africa concludes that "there is no evidence ... that the volume of international migration will be substantially reduced in future. Migration to certain destinations may be curtailed, but historical patterns of movement suggest that new ones will emerge" (Russell and Jacobsen, 1988:II-21).

International migration patterns in Africa are complicated by the large volume of refugee flows. .It has been estimated that in 1987 the total number of refugees in African countries was 3,574,910 (U.S. Committee for Refugees, 1988). The largest numbers of refugees were in East Africa, but there were at least some refugees in 36 African countries (Table 22). Some voluntary repatriation efforts for refugees have met with a modicum of success, but they have involved only a small proportion of all refugees in Africa. Although the World Bank generally allocates back to their country of origin refugees who are living in camps and are not permanently resettled, it is likely that substantial numbers of refugees in Africa will never return to their home country. In most cases, however, the degree of permanent settlement is