Source:https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/brief/poverty-and-distributional-impacts-of-covid-19potential-channels-of-impact-and-mitigating-policies In the case of Tunisia, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to exacerbate the existing development challenges by potentially reversing the trend of poverty reduction in recent years with the risk of increasing the number of people falling below the poverty line and increasing the degree of poverty severity of those who are already poor. Recent evidence generated by phone surveys during the COVID-19 period, conducted by the National Institute of Statistics ( _Institut National de la Statistique_ or INS) in collaboration with the World Bank, highlight this disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on the poor and vulnerable Tunisians through the channels highlighted in Figure 1.

The first round<sup>1</sup> of the phone survey revealed that almost two-thirds of households interviewed were affected by COVID-19, either through rising food prices or through loss of employment. More specifically, a third of respondents feared not being able to afford food in the month prior to the survey. This concern was more evident for rural and poorer households. In addition, households seemed to have altered their eating patterns; especially poorer households reduced the quantities consumed or started consuming foods that they do not normally like. To cope with rising food prices or make up for the loss of employment, more than 25 percent of the households interviewed drew on their savings, 25 percent of the households received help or borrowed money from relatives and 15 percent used deferred payment of their obligations. Most of those employed prior to COVID-19 reported loss of job as well as lower income. Indeed, only a third of the respondents who worked before confinement were able to continue their work. Among those who were out of work during the survey period, only 40 percent received all or part of their salary. Family-owned businesses were also heavily impacted by the crisis.

During the second round of the survey, some progress was reported as the economy was partially able to respond to challenges associated with food shortages. Less than 40 percent of those questioned said they had difficulty buying flour and semolina in the second round compared to 65 percent in the first round. In terms of educational outcomes, among households with children, 61 percent said that their children did not participate in any learning activity during the week preceding the interview. Only 26 percent of households reported that their child or non-member of the household was in contact with teaching staff during the week preceding the interview. However, this proportion varied from 12 percent for the poorest quintile to 53 percent for the wealthiest. In terms of employment, 41 percent of those questioned during the second round of the survey and who were employed before confinement were not yet working—that is, 26 percentage points less compared to the period of total confinement. Family business units continued to be severely impacted by the crisis. More than half of them suffered from either a drop or an interruption in their income during the two weeks preceding the interview. Most of them (around 90 percent) were affected by the crisis either directly (closure of the company) or indirectly (no customers, transport of goods, raw materials).

In addition to the phone surveys, studies have been conducted to simulate the impacts of COVID-19 on poverty and welfare by IFPRI-MENA, the UNDP, and UNICEF offices in Tunisia. The results point to the dynamics of increasing poverty. In particular, the UNDP study simulates a post-COVID scenario (S1), which

> 1 To monitor the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 on households, phone surveys were conducted with a panel of 1,369 Tunisian households in two rounds—between April 29th and May 8th and between May 15th and May 21st.

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