rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
<!-- Start of picture text --> 85<br>80<br>&<br>e 75 ECA<br>co<br>Qa<br>S 70 simple average EAP<br>s ——— ~ tAC<br>a<br>®ww 65<br>a<br>S<br>a 60<br>><br>co<br>55<br>MNA<br>50<br>2005 2010 2015 2019<br>Note: excluding high income countries<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Methodology assessment of statistical Source data assessment of statistical Periodicity and timeliness<br>capacity capacity assessment of statistical capacity<br>90 ————<br>. ——————<br>simple average<br>50 ECA<br>70 ECA EAP<br>simple average ECA<br>: Sax ———<br>9 60 simple average EAE<br>= EAP<br>LAC<br>50<br>MNA<br>40 MNA<br>30<br>2005 2019 2005 2019 2005 2019<br><!-- End of picture text -->
Balassa (1978). There are a number of examples where the GLI has been shown to represent supply chains or used as an independent variable in an analysis to capture the effects of supply linkages in response to a shock. Fukasaku (1992) finds that as Pacific-Asian countries integrated in the 1980s, the level of intraindustry trade expanded. Brakman and Marrewijk (2019) find that the GLI captures measures of supply chain integration in examining countries’ responses to the great recession better than trade in value added measures because it is more precisely calculated. UNCTAD (2020) uses the GLI to measure supply chain integration with China to estimate trade impacts from early stages of the spread of COVID-19.

Table 4 presents the results. As shown in the top row, the coefficient on population is positive and highly significant, showing larger countries gain when China relinquishes market share. GDP per capita is negative and highly significant, implying that low-income countries tend to displace China in US imports, suggesting that labor costs matter. Distance is positive and significant, implying that countries further from the US benefit relatively more—precisely the opposite of what nearshoring would imply. However, contiguity is also positive, implying that it is both far countries and bordering countries that benefit from reducing imports from China.

While in general countries with revealed comparative advantage tend to lose market share—indicating large exporters do not grow as fast—this effect is mitigated in products where China exited (column 2). Countries with revealed comparative advantage experienced relatively faster growth in products where China lost market share. There is some evidence of friendshoring, countries where the UN vote is aligned with the US tend to see higher export growth in products China exited (column 3). There is no significant evidence that looking like China (export similarity to China) helped countries to replace China (column 4).We also find that countries that were initially highly integrated with China, as reflected by intra-industry trade with China, experienced the fastest growth (column 5).

Including all variables, we find the strongest predictors are country size, shared border, revealed comparative advantage, and integration into Chinese supply chains.

To gauge the magnitude of the estimate of the integration with China, we compare the impacts of increasing the intra-industry trade index from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile of the variable. The estimated coefficient of 0.09 indicates that export growth of tariffed products is around 3 percentage points higher for countries more integrated with China.

Repeating the exercise, separating the strategic products and other products, highlights important differences among the two groups. For both types of goods low-income countries tend to benefit and 14
<!-- Start of picture text --> 6 Conclusion<br>This paper explores the effects of fiscal policy-government expenditure and<br>taxes—on output in a sample of 28 developing- and high-income countries. Its<br>main new findings, using OLS, GMM and SVAR estimates are that the effects<br>of taxes on output appear moderate in high-income countries, but significant<br>in developing countries. Specifically, we find that cuts in personal income tax<br>rates have a significant impact on economic growth in the following year in<br>developing countries. In contrast to findings in SVAR studies of high-income<br>countries, we find that tax policy appears more effective at stimulating output<br>than increases in government expenditures.<br>The paper also incorporates debt dynamics into a Structural VAR esti-<br>mation and concludes that in some cases—Brazil and Estonia in the current<br>study—incorporating debt dynamics into a fiscal SVAR can have a substan-<br>tial effect on estimates of the effects of taxes and government expenditure on<br>output.<br>30<br><!-- End of picture text -->
- **Burbidge, John, Lonnie Magee, and Leslie Robb** , “Alternative Transformations to Handle Extreme Values of the Dependent Variable,” _Journal of the American Statistical Association_ , 1988, _83_ (401), 123–127.

- **CNLCT, Commission Nationale de Lutte Contre le Terrorisme** , “The National List of Persons, Organizations and Entities Associated with Terrorist Crime,” `https://bit.ly/ 3olNHPO` 2021. Accessed: 2021-04-19.

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- **Conway, Maura** , “Determining the Role of the Internet in Violent Extremism and Terrorism: Six Suggestions for Progressing Research,” _Studies in Conflict & Terrorism_ , 2017, _40_ (1), 77–98.

- **, Moign Khawaja, Suraj Lakhani, Jeremy Reffin, Andrew Robertson, and David Weir** , “Disrupting Daesh: Measuring Takedown of Online Terrorist Material and Its Impacts,” _Studies in Conflict & Terrorism_ , 2019, _42_ (1-2), 141–160.

- **Dodwell, Brian, Daniel Milton, and Don Rassler** , “The Caliphates Global Workforce: An Inside Look at the Islamic States Foreign Fighter Paper Trail,” Technical Report, United States Military Academy Combating Terrorism Center West Point United States 2016.

- **, , and** , “Then and Now: Comparing the Flow of Foreign Fighters to AQI and the Islamic State,” Technical Report, US Military Academy-Combating Terrorism Center West Point United States 2016.

- **Enders, Walter and Gary Hoover** , “The Nonlinear Relationship between Terrorism and Poverty,” _American Economic Review_ , 2012, _102_ (3), 267–72.

- **Evans, Tyler, Daniel J Milton, and Joseph K Young** , “Choosing to Fight, Choosing to Die: Examining How ISIS Foreign Fighters Select Their Operational Roles,” _International Studies Review_ , 2020.

19
# **1. Introduction**

Changes in GDP per capita are the most common metric used to track a country’s overall development. Because GDP per capita is the product of GDP per worker and the employment-topopulation ratio, changes in GDP per capita reflect changes in both productivity and the employment-to-population ratio. In particular, changes in the employment-to-population ratio over the medium run can either dampen or amplify the effects of productivity growth.

We coin the term _jobless development_ to describe countries that experience decreases in their employment-to-population ratio during a period of productivity growth. While a large literature has studied the dynamics of productivity growth for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the dynamics of the employment-to-population ratio for these countries have received very little attention. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by studying employment-topopulation ratio dynamics among EMDEs in the post-1990 period.<sup>1</sup> One reason for the lack of attention devoted to labor market outcomes in the context of macroeconomic development is the fact that the employment-to-population ratio is largely uncorrelated with the level of development in a broad cross-section of countries. This has led researchers to abstract from considering it as an important factor. But this near-zero correlation does not imply that differences in labor market outcomes are small; on the contrary, these differences are large in many cases and our analysis focuses on these differences.

The examples of South Korea and India serve to motivate our analysis. Both South Korea and India have experienced sustained periods of rapid growth as measured by increases in GDP per capita. In South Korea this period covered 1965-1987, when GDP per capita increased by 170 log points. In India, it covers 1990-2018 when GDP per capita increased by 130 log points. In both countries, periods of rapid growth in GDP per capita were also periods of rapid growth in productivity---GDP per worker rose by 140 log points in both countries.

However, South Korea’s and India’s development differs in one important respect. Figure 1 displays the time series of the log ratio of employment to the working age population (hereafter EWAP) for South Korea and India since 1960. Whereas South Korea’s period of rapid growth coincided with a large increase in EWAP, India’s period of rapid growth was associated with a large decrease in EWAP. This difference is quantitatively important: EWAP was 24 log points higher in India than South Korea in 1960, but as of 2019 it is 28 log points lower—a reversal of 52 log points. If one takes 2 percent as a standard value for “normal” annual growth in real GDP per capita, this reversal amounts to 26 years of growth.

> 1 Several previous studies have estimated the correlates of employment growth in large cross-sections of countries (Crivelli, Furceri, and Toujas-Bernaté 2012; Kapsos 2005). See the meta-analysis in World Bank (2024).

2
Policy Research Working Paper 6008

# **Abstract**

This paper presents a broad overview of labor market indicators for men and women in Serbia with a focus on employment patterns, entrepreneurship and career advancement as well as earnings differentials. The analysis relies primarily on the results of the Labor Force Surveys conducted in Serbia in April 2008 and October 2009. The findings show that although the overall labor market situation in Serbia is difficult, women are in a much more disadvantageous position than men. Women are much less likely to be employed, start a business or advance in the political arena. Furthermore, there is a significant wage gap between men and women in a number of sectors and occupational groups with low educated women being particularly disadvantaged. The results of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition demonstrate that the wage gap is indicative of discrimination of women in the labor market as earnings differentials cannot be explained by differences in observed characteristics of male and female employees. Based on the obtained results, the paper outlines four broad areas that require the attention of policy-makers: employment generation; enhancement of education outcomes; improvement of the regulatory environment and support to women’s business and political careers; and promotion of transparent performance setting mechanisms.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank. org. The author may be contacted at areva@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
economic growth and highlighted circumstances in which financial institutions can actively encourage innovation and promote future growth by determining and funding productive investments. Robinson (1952) argued that as the economy grows, the demand for financial services also grows, which positively affects financial development, suggesting that the causation runs from economic growth to financial development.

According to Patrick (1966), there are two possible patterns in the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. The first is demand pull: The demand for financial services by investors and savers lead to the creation of modern financial institutions, financial assets, liabilities and related services. Financial development supports the process of economic growth; the expansion of the financial system is thus seen as a consequence of growth.

The second pattern is supply push. <mark>The c</mark> reation and supply of financial services spurs growth. Resources are transferred from sectors that do not drive growth to sectors that do so. Developed financial markets also promote economic growth by mobilizing savings and facilitating investment (Goldsmith 1969).

McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) argue that financial development is a prerequisite for economic growth. They point out that financial development can affect growth positively through its influence on saving and investment.

The endogenous growth models of the 1990s provided additional theoretical support to the relationship between financial development and economic performance (see, for example, Bencivenga and Smith [1991], Greenwood and Jovanovic [1990], and King and Levine [1993]). These models assume that financial intermediaries provide the economy with various types of services, reducing investment risks (liquidity and productivity risks), collecting information and offering better share diversification. These financial services improve the efficiency and volume of investment. Endogenous growth models assume that the level of investment and productivity growth are the channels of transmission from financial intermediation to economic growth. Numerous empirical studies find strong evidence to support the casual relationship between financial development and growth (see, for example, Demirgüç‐Kunt and Levine, [2008]; King and Levine [1993]; Demetriades and Hussein [1996], and Khan and Senhadji [2000]).

Shaw emphasizes financial deepening and financial liberalization, noting that “liberalization and deepening of finance contribute to the stability of growth in output and employment” (Shaw 1973, 11). He argues that financial deepening reduces the velocity of circulation, eases the strain on taxation, reduces dependency on foreign savings, and obstructs capital flight. Such depth requires financial liberalization and the elimination of distortions in financial prices. Liberalization in financial markets, which implies higher real interest rates, would stop savers from owning inflation hedges and/or reduce current consumption as a substitute of financial assets. As a 4
<!-- Start of picture text --> Kazakhstan<br>Honduras<br>Armenia<br>Moldova<br>United Arab Emirates<br>Colombia<br>France<br>Korea, Rep.<br>Lebanon<br>Malaysia<br>Indonesia<br>Kyrgyz Republic<br>Mexico<br>Vietnam<br>Tanzania<br>Kenya<br>0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200<br>De minimis threshold (US$)<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Digital Business Indicators.

_Note:_ Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Pakistan, Senegal, and Tunisia do not have a de minimis threshold in place. Kazakhstan’s threshold is only applicable to member countries of the Eurasian Customs Union.

When comparing thresholds, it is important to keep in mind that the number of international parcels being received and thus the need to establish a de minimis threshold vary significantly across countries. Also, different conditions apply to application of the de minimis threshold in different countries—for example, in terms of product types included, the calculation of value (such as free on board [FOB], duty payable, per shipment or per day), intended use (commercial or individual use), mode of transport (air, sea, road), trading partner (such as within a regional economic community), and type of shipping (postal or express).

International organizations have begun discussions on updating customs regulations in response to the rising cross-border e-commerce. The World Customs Organization amended its Immediate Release Guidelines in 2014 and most recently in June 2018. De minimis is recognized as one of the 15 key components under the Cross-Border E-Commerce Framework of Standards. It has been suggested that the threshold be based on a cost-benefit analysis of the number of imported low-value packages, clearance times, revenue collected, cost of revenue collection, capacity of customs authority, and required trade controls. The threshold should also be reviewed on a regular basis to ensure it still balances all objectives in a best possible way.

Public-private partnership also plays a role in addressing logistics obstacles. <mark>Malaysia’s Digital Free Trade Zone went live in November 2017 as a joint undertaking between the Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation and China’s Alibaba Group under its Electronic World Trade Platform (eWTP) initiative. An e-fulfillment hub that serves as a centralized customs clearance and fulfillment facility is a key component of the scheme. Firms located in the Digital Free Trade Zone would benefit from efficient customs clearance procedures, smart logistics solutions, and, most important, direct access to their market. As of April 2018, more than 2,000 firms had joined in the Digital Free Trade Zone, generating total sales of RM 52.1 million (US$13.5 million). The initiative is expected to generate 60,000 jobs by 2025.</mark><sup>88</sup> <mark>Rwanda followed suit by becoming Alibaba’s first eWTP partner in Africa. Enabled by advanced commerce logistics, a mobile payment system, and skill training provided under the initiative, firms now seize the opportunity to participate in the global economy—an opportunity that was previously available mainly to</mark> 23
Policy Research Working Paper 10208

# **Abstract**

This paper introduces and provides a descriptive analysis of data from more than 15,000 detailed interviews of representative samples of informal businesses operating in 24 cities across seven countries, namely, India, Iraq, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The paper is a companion paper to a study that presents the methodological underpinnings of the informal business data collection. It is an innovative application of area-based adaptive cluster sampling, rendering a representative sample of these businesses. The paper presents salient descriptive results of the data to motivate further research. The World Bank’s Enterprise Analysis unit started collecting data from the informal sector using the adaptive cluster sampling method in 2017. The combined and standardized data show that informal businesses are small, young, mostly started out of necessity rather than as an opportunity for growth, largely detached from the rest of the economy, and with meager earnings. Few of the informal businesses have ever considered registering formally, with the majority perceiving no benefits from doing so.

This paper is a product of the Global Indicators Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at aaberra@worldbank.org, gayanaaga@worldbank.org, fjolevski@worldbank.org, and nkaralashvili@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
assessed on the specific circumstances of each case, would remain of establishing a link between such a norm and the financial agreement in question. This leads to the conclusion that the class of debts that could be classified as odious because of the derogation of a norm of _jus cogens_ would be narrow indeed, if existing at all.

# **<u>Weaknesses in declaring</u>** **_<u>ex ante</u>_** **<u>that certain regimes are “odious”</u>**

A different proposal that has recently been put forward, and which constitutes a convenient bridge between the traditional and the expanded concept of odious debts, is to have some internationally accepted entity or individual(s) to declare _ex ante_ that certain regimes are “odious”.<sup>24</sup> This would put lenders on notice that loans to such regimes could be repudiated by successor regimes with the support of the international community unless, of course, the lender could demonstrate that due diligence had been used to ensure the loan proceeds were used for legitimate purposes. But even such a seemingly appealing approach has many weaknesses. First, who — individual, group, agency, or institution — would declare _ex ante_ that regimes are “odious”? Second, on which decisive factors would this arbiter distinguish “odious” from non-odious regimes: unrepresentative government, ethnic cleansing, racial discrimination, denial of fundamental human rights? Third, how would such declarations be treated in national courts having jurisdiction to resolve debt disputes? Although, as one writer has recently

> 24 See Jayachandran and Kremer, “Odious Debt”, 96 _The American Economic Review_ 82 (2006), electronically available at <u>www.stanford.edu/~jayachan/odious_debt.pdf#search=%22Jayachandran%20Kremer%20%22odious%20d ebt%22%22.</u>

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http://www.prio.no/page/CSCW_research_detail/Programme_detail_CSCW/9649/42464. html _Times Concise Atlas of the World,_ 2000. Eight edition. London: Times Books.

Toft, Monica Duffy, 2003. _The Geography of Ethnic Violence_ . Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.

Weidmann, Nils; Håvard Hegre & Clionadh Raleigh, 2006. Modeling Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Civil War. Typescript, PRIO.

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