Riverain land would increase producer/consumer surplus by $107.89. At the same time, the shadow price of -$211.80 for the Upland ecology suggests that each additional hectare put into production reduces producer/consumer surplus by $211.80. These findings call for a major land use policy shift, including increased government investment in the Mangrove Swamp and Riverain to provide basic infrastructure, services and the incentives to crowd-in private sector investments in these two ecologies.

Simulation of the impact of a tariff suggest that, overall, Sierra Leone would benefit from the imposition of a moderate level of tariff, up to say 10 percent—in line with the ECOWAS Common External Tariff (CET) rate. Although consumer surplus would fall, as a result of the higher price, with the largest impact being with the move from zero tariff to a 1 percent rate, the increase in employment due to the supply response in the rice sector would be a more important longer-term policy goal. However, increasing the tariff beyond 10 percent would have no positive impact on the supply response, employment or indeed fiscal revenues since imports would be completely replaced by domestic production. The expected positive supply response to the higher price for rice on account of the imposition of the tariff may be fairly rapid given that rice is a short duration crop (3-6 months). However, the supply response could be constrained by other structural factors, including the availability of good quality seeds, fertilizer and effective extension services to provide farmers with advice on good husbandry practices.

The impact of an increase in the minimum wage is simulated in the context of different levels of tariffs. The results suggest that increasing the minimum wage under the current a zero-tariff regime will have very little impact on employment in the rice sector, in large part because much of the labor is from farmowning households and there are no temporary workers hired in. However, a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage under a 10 percent tariff regime, would result in a substantial reduction in total employment in the rice sector. Furthermore, the impact of unemployment would be much larger for temporary laborers, who are likely to be landless and poor. Keeping inflation low, through effective fiscal and monetary policies may therefore be a better option to tame inflation than raising the minimum wage to compensate for high inflation. The higher wage should come from increased productivity within the sector, including through the use of quality inputs, including seeds and the adoption of appropriate, modern cultural practices.

The simulation of a technical experiment based on actual field trials suggests that both producer and consumer welfare could be improved through increased yields as a result of improved practices. Increased yields would also provide the government with more policy options in the use of tariffs. For example, with increased yields (in the order of 30 -75 percent), a 5 percent tariff would eliminate imports through the domestic supply response. However, attaining and sustaining higher yields, even for improved varieties, requires consistent application of good agricultural practices – and given the weak agricultural extension system, this is a major challenge.

In summary, the simulation from the rice sector model suggests that Sierra Leone’s rice sector is operating at a sub-optimal level. Moving to a more optimal path will require structural policies and incentives to shift production from low-yield ecologies to high-yield ecologies. In addition, the more optimal policy path for the government to balance consumer and producer welfare and meet its objective of creating jobs is to employ a moderate level of tariff (no greater than 10 percent) combined with policies to improve the productivity of the sector. Such policies could include (i) improving access to quality inputs for the sector, through fostering markets that include private sector players; (ii) enhancing the quality of extension services to encourage the adoption of improved cultural practices in the sector; and (iii) employing 27