**figure 4. CFR by women’s education in Turkey**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 7<br>6<br>5<br>4<br>3<br>2<br>1<br>0<br>1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975<br>Less than primary completed Primary completed<br>Secondary completed University completed<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Census (i-pums) 2000 and EU SILC CS 2011 (women aged 37 to 42) At the same time, figure A in the appendix illustrates a dramatic increase of the proportion of women having _at least_ a primary diploma<sup>7</sup> . This implies that the decline in completed fertility rates in Turkey is not only due to a level effect, but also due to a structure effect<sup>8</sup> . Fertility has always been much lower for educated women, but more and more women are educated in Turkey. This structure effect explains about half of the fertility decline in Turkey. The other half is explained by the fact that within each educational group, the average number of children is declining, and this decline is most drastic for low educated women.

When we calculate completed fertility rates by crossing the education level of mothers and their partners (see figure B in the appendix), we observe that the couple’s fertility level is more correlated to the woman’s educational level than to the education level of their partner. The more the woman is educated, the less will be her completed fertility rate, relatively independent of the education of her partner. The biggest fertility gap is confirmed between women with primary education or less vs. women with at least secondary education, while the fertility difference between secondary and tertiary educated women is less important. For men, we find important fertility differentials within each education group which are explained by the education level of their female partners.

> 7 For the youngest observed cohort (1977, aged 23 in 2000), the majority of women (around 60%)  have primary completed education. The proportion of women with completed secondary education is sharply rising for the 1960 to 1977 cohorts, and particularly for the latest observed cohorts. Education rates are not presented here for cohorts later than 1977 as our intention is to focus on completed education and completed fertility. We observe actually that the proportion of women with completed secondary and university education is re‐ decreasing for cohorts younger than 1977 in the Turkish census as these women aged 23 or younger have not yet completed their education. EU SILC data shows, nevertheless, a drastic increase in the proportion of women in secondary and tertiary education for younger cohorts in Turkey. In 2011, 30% of women aged 25 to 30 had secondary education, and 18% university education.

> 8  According to census data, the average number of children observed at the end of mothers childbearing years decreased by 2,5 from 5,7 children (1930 cohort) to 3,2 children (1960 cohort). If the number of children per education group had been stable within each education group, but only the repartition of women among education groups had changed, fertility would have decreased by 1,5 children only instead of 2,5 (structure effect). If the repartition of women among education groups had been stable and only the number of children in each education group would have been decreasing, fertility would have decreased also by 1,5 children only. The cumulated effect is a decrease in the average number of children of 2,5 (interactions between the two effects lead to 2,5 instead of 3).

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