# Figures

|**Figure 1: Cross-Country Comparison of Income Class Poverty Rates**.................................................. 10|
|---|
|**Figure 2: Poverty rates in Kazakhstan using international poverty lines**.............................................. 11|
|**Figure 3: National Poverty Rates in Tajikistan (left-note not comparable to international poverty**<br>**estimates); Number of quarters in poverty (right)**.................................................................................. 12|
|**Figure 4: Poverty rates in the Kyrgyz Republic**....................................................................................... 13|
|**Figure 5: Poverty Rates by Region of Uzbekistan (2018)**....................................................................... 14|
|**Figure 6: UMIC Poverty Rate by Regions (Oblasts) in Central Asia**.................................................... 15|
|**Figure 7: The middle class share of the population, by regions (oblasts) of Central Asia**................... 16|
|**Figure 8: Average Daily Per Capita Consumption in 2011 PPP**............................................................. 17|
|**Figure 9: Poverty headcount ratio at $3.2-a-day PPP per person, rates for Central Asia**..................... 24|
|**Figure 10: Poverty at $5.5-a-day PPP per person, rates for Central Asia**............................................... 25|
|**Figure 11: Average Per Capita Consumption 2011 PPP**.......................................................................... 26|
|**Figure 12: Share of Population in the Middle Class in Central Asia**...................................................... 27|
|**Figure 13: Share of Households with at Least One Member Abroad for Work**.................................... 28|
|**Figure 14: District Share of HHs with Migrants by District Per Capita Consumption Quintile**......... 29|
|**Figure 15: Number of Early Learning Centers per 1000 Children**.......................................................... 30|
|**Figure 16: Number of Kindergartens per 1000 Children**......................................................................... 30|
|**Figure 17: Poverty headcount ratio at $5.5-a-day PPP per person, rates for Kazakhstan 2017**............ 51|
|**Figure 18: Share of the population in the middle class, rates for Kazakhstan 2017**.............................. 52|
|**Figure 19: Average Per Capita Daily Consumption in 2011 PPP for Kazakhstan 2017**......................... 53|
|**Figure 20: Poverty headcount ratio at $3.2-a-day PPP per person, rates for Uzbekistan 2018**............. 54|
|**Figure 21: Poverty headcount ratio at $5.5-a-day PPP per person, rates for Uzbekistan 2018**............. 55|
|**Figure 22: Share of population in the middle class, rates for Uzbekistan 2018**..................................... 56|
|**Figure 23: Average Per Capita Daily Consumption in 2011 PPP for Uzbekistan 2018**......................... 57|
|**Figure 24: Poverty headcount ratio at $3.2-a-day PPP per person, rates for Kyrgyzstan 2016**............. 58|
|**Figure 25: Poverty headcount ratio at $5.5-a-day PPP per person, rates for Kyrgyzstan 2016**............. 59|
|**Figure 26: Share of the population in the middle class, rates for Kyrgyzstan 2016**............................... 60|
|**Figure 27: Average Per Capita Daily Consumption in 2011 PPP for Kyrgyzstan 2016**.......................... 61|
|**Figure 28: Poverty headcount ratio at $3.2-a-day PPP per person, rates for Tajikistan 2015**............... 62|
|**Figure 29: Poverty headcount ratio at $5.5-a-day PPP per person, rates for Tajikistan 2015**............... 63|
|**Figure 30: Share of the population in the middle class, rates for Tajikistan 2015**................................. 64|
|**Figure 31: Average Per Capita Daily Consumption in 2011 PPP for Tajikistan 2015**............................ 65|
|**Figure 32: Upper and Lower-bound Confidence Intervals, Including Out-of-Sample Predictions**.... 66|
|**Figure 33: Comparison between ELL and FH**........................................................................................ 67|
|**Figure 34: Root Mean Square Error Before and After FH Approach (Poverty Headcount Ratio**|
|**$5.5/day - Left; Average per-capita consumption 2011 PPP – Right)**................................................... 68|
|**Figure 35: Comparison of Individual Models vs. Pooled Model (Only in sample - Left; Including out**|
|**of sample - Right)**...................................................................................................................................... 68|
|**Figure 36: Left: Strict VIF Threshold (5) vs. Adopted Threshold (10); Right: No VIF Threshold vs.**|
|**Adopted Threshold (1))**............................................................................................................................. 69|
|**Figure 37: Direct vs. Fay Herriot Estimates for in-sample Poverty $5.5day (left) and average**|
|**consumption (right)**.................................................................................................................................. 70|
|**Figure 38: Improvement of Coefficient of Variation in average consumption**..................................... 71|

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