# I. Introduction

School dropout and grade repetition are among the most serious problems<sup>plaguing</sup> educational systems around the world today. This problem is especially<sup>pronounced in Latin</sup> America and the Caribbean, the region with the highest incidence<sup>of repetition and dropout in</sup> the world (see Unesco 1991). Nearly half the children who enroll<sup>in the first grade never</sup> complete the fourth grade. Latin America leads the developing world<sup>in the percentage of</sup> repeaters in primary education. On average, about 29 percent of all primary<sup>students are</sup> repeaters each year; and 42 percent are repeating the first grade (Schiefelbein<sup>1992). Clearly,</sup> repetition is _the_ key issue in Latin American primary education, both<sup>for improving overall</sup> efficiency and reaching suitable levels of quality (Schiefelbein 1989).<sup>Repetition also acts as a</sup> signal that something is wrong, that achievement is inadequate,<sup>that the quality of schooling is</sup> low, or that learning disabilities brought from a deprived learning environment<sup>are present.</sup> School repetition and school dropout are closely linked, the one<sup>often leading to the</sup> other. They can be attributed to the supply side, i.e. the offering of<sup>low quality instruction,</sup> or to the demand side, i.e. families needing child labor for agricultural<sup>production and hence</sup> withdrawing their children from school, or forcing them to repeat because<sup>they have not learned</sup> the material during the school year because of work-related distractions.

It is important to note that the reduction of repetition and dropout<sup>are not ends in</sup> themselves. Regarding repetition, leaming is the issue. If a student<sup>learns more by repeating</sup> a grade, repetition is not a problem (see Psacharopoulos, Rojas<sup>and Velez 1992), except in terms</sup> of efficiency costs if alternatives exist. However, it is a problem<sup>if repetition becomes</sup> perennial, leading to dropout before a child attains literacy.<sup>At some stage, a child</sup><sup>_must_"drop</sup> out' of school, e.g. at the end of the primary, secondary or higher<sup>education cycle. But if</sup> dropout occurs before a child finishes ihe compulsory level of<sup>education, presumably also</sup> missing literacy for life, then dropping out of school is a very<sup>serious problem.</sup> In this paper we first review the literature on repetition in developing<sup>countries and then</sup> examine a series of factors that relate to repetition based on household survey<sup>data for both</sup> Bolivia and Guatemala. We then proceed to estimate the determinants<sup>of repetition using a</sup> series of household demographic and ethnic variables. Results<sup>from the analysis are used to</sup> simulate the probabilities of repetition against particular characteristics.

# II. Literature Review

The high levels of repetition and drop out at the primary schooling levels<sup>prevent the</sup> realization of universal primary education in many developing<sup>countries (Davico 1990;</sup> Schiefelbein 1989). Repeaters reduce the enrolment capacity of their class,<sup>thus preventing other</sup> children from being admitted. Repeaters also caatse overcrowding,<sup>which raises school costs</sup> (Unesco 1984). Many authors have found that the major obstacle is the first grade (see,<sup>for</sup> example, Davico 1990; Schiefelbein 1992). Repeating the first grade often leads<sup>to more</sup> repetition, which is followed by eventual drop out, often resulting in illiteracy<sup>for life.</sup>