# **Table 5. “A1_historical” sheet**

## **Alternative Scenario 1: Key Variables at Historical Average**

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

||**Actual**|||**Projecti**|**ons**||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||2005|2006|2007|2008|2009|2010|2011||
|**I. Baseline Medium-T**|**erm Projecti**|**ons**||||||**Debt-stabilizing**<br>**primary**<br>**deficit**|
|Public sector debt 1/|61.2|**60**|**59**|**59**|**58**|**57**|**55**||
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (net)|17.1|17.9|18.2|18.5|19.6|21.0|23.0||
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (gross)|22.7|23.3|23.3|23.4|24.3|25.4|27.1||
|o/w domestic debt (net) 3/|44.1|42.3|41.0|40.1|38.1|35.6|32.2||
|Change in public sector debt|-2.0|-1.0|-1.0|-0.6|-0.8|-1.1|-1.5|0.0|
|Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)|9.4|-1.0|-1.0|-0.6|-0.8|-1.1|-1.5|0.0|
|<br>Primary deficit|4.6|-6.0|-6.0|-6.0|-6.0|-6.0|-6.0|-4.1|
|Revenue and grants|67.2|66.0|65.3|65.3|65.3|65.3|65.3||
|Primary (noninterest) expenditure|71.8|59.9|59.3|59.3|59.3|59.3|59.3||
|Seigniorage|-0.6|-0.7|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|
|Automatic debt dynamics 2/|5.5|6.2|6.1|6.0|5.8|5.6|5.2|4.7|
|Contribution from interest rate/growth differential|4.5|6.3|6.2|6.1|6.0|5.7|5.4|4.9|
|Of which contribution from real interest rate|7.4|8.7|8.5|8.4|8.2|8.0|7.6|7.1|
|Contribution from domestic real interest rate 4/|6.2|7.7|7.5|7.4|7.2|6.8|6.4|5.8|
|Contribution from real interest rate on foreign debt 5/|1.6|1.3|1.3|1.3|1.3|1.4|1.4|1.5|
|Contribution from real interest rate on net foreign assets 6/|-0.4|-0.3|-0.3|-0.3|-0.3|-0.3|-0.2|-0.2|
|Of which contribution from real GDP growth|-2.9|-2.4|-2.3|-2.3|-2.3|-2.2|-2.2|-2.1|
|Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation 7/|0.9|-0.2|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.2|-0.2|-0.2|
|<br>Other identified debt-creating flows|0.0|-0.4|-0.4|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Privatization receipts (negative)|0.0|-0.4|-0.4|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Residual, including asset changes (2-3)|-11.4|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Public debt in percent of revenues 1/|91.1|91.3|90.7|89.8|88.5|86.8|84.5||
|Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio|6.6|-5.0|-5.1|-5.4|-5.2|-4.9|-4.5|-4.1|
|Required deficit reduction|-2.0|-1.0|-1.0|-0.6|-0.8|-1.1|-1.5|-2.0|
|**Gross financing**5/|36.9|27.6|26.0|24.8|23.6|22.2|20.3||
|in billions of U.S. dollars|128.9|99.6|100.0|101.8|104.0|104.7|103.0||
|||||||||For debt|
|**Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions**||||||||stabilization|
|Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/|15.9|14.2|12.7|11.7|11.7|11.7|11.7|11.7|
|Average nominal interest rate on public domestic debt (in percent) 11/|22.0|25.3|23.8|22.8|22.8|22.8|22.8|22.8|
|<br>Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt|10.3|8.4|8.5|8.5|8.5|8.5|8.5|8.5|
|<br>Average nominal interest rate on NFA (in percent) 12/||8.4|8.5|8.5|8.5|8.5|8.5|8.5|
|Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in domestic CPI, percent)|9.1|8.2|8.2|8.2|8.2|8.2|8.2|8.2|
|Average real interest rate on domestic debt (nominal rate minus change in domestic CPI, p|15.2|19.3|19.3|19.3|19.3|19.3|19.3||
|Average real interest rate on foreign debt debt (nominal rate minus change in U.S. CPI, pe|7.6|6.0|6.0|6.0|6.0|6.0|6.0||
|<br>Change in the real exchange rate (Local currency per US dollar) 13/|5.1|-1.0|-0.5|-0.4|-0.8|-0.8|-1.0|-1.0|
|<br>Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)|9.3|2.5|1.4|0.5|0.2|0.2|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||
|<br>Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)|-8.5|-2.4|-1.4|-0.5|-0.2|-0.2|0.0||
|<br>Inflation rate (GDP deflator, in percent)|6.8|6.0|4.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|
|US Inflation rate (in percent)|2.7|2.4|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|
|Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)|5.9|-13.2|2.9|4.0|4.0|4.0|4.0||
|<br>Base Money (percent of GDP)|7.8|7.8|7.8|7.9|8.0|8.0|8.1||

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