**Poiticy** Rl SFtARC. WORKING(It I'NcPAiR 122"

# **Summary findings**

**Ollne** ('CiSc of the dlisippoilitiui prci torniiCo.i of ilc tradable gOOdS SeCtOr ill Sub>--S'11aharan Atrlika aJelt s'e eral1 r **years** of adijustmICnlt anld iTIVeS. liSn **oft** Ot ooII1dCrJlL resOULirCCS iS tIlh le:sthan-exlupla! lo illlenIWtitatiIunotf **retforni,** Ctmlcldcs Foroitotn.

ForOLItan sunutiarizes tdi ()xereiet.e 01 teui So1l'Saharan couirntries sithl trade ieform.ii It kld retormi **_is_** broadly dfefirind to enicompass r.form _oI_ flreig, exchanige and other measuires (such as dotiestic price decontrol) that directly or indirectly IffeCi tilt relitivprofitability of tihe tradaible goods Sector. .She sgles out reveral factors that explaiin the differenit inmpleioeniraion records of the countries sampled and evaluates the likelihood that retorm will be sustained in thc ttittife.

Of the tenl **countries** examined, onv _a_ fcw ((,hartL. Tanzania, Uganda. and, to a lesser extent, Mali) _began_ andi sustained trade refornm in rite I 98(0 and I **9'90s** In other countries, miost liberalization uneasutes adoprtd were later reversed or suspLSeudCd **1e6Ca11** of a ialae 1 o tug i **t** payments **crisis** or **soCcial unrest** or both.

Cotnipatible nacrocconjorutic and e'xchlange'ite o iirie are ranked **as** miost crtiuial for sticecssfidl _rrad_ retormi. Incompatible tnacroeceonOtnie po1liiesC tOr **instO ic** brOLIgIlt about the re'versal of trade libeiali a.l ontiOl i Kenya and of foreignt exchange nlarktt libLt )adical ii Nigeria. Experience in the th1r7ee fxtti znte ci especially Cote d'lvoire and Senri -, n! ith ights telc enormousIS diffiCu1lt)' _*f_ ahiCh iinlg _a_ LOtis tlut rea.l liirhili exchange. rate under ti:e cttostr6tt eot a fix1\ed notinll exchange raite. In tiho,r ti nder certain cuutiititon i

> LeVJuiIAIio)I' nrll tn ola)I r L ye ivie e - ll )(i liltti:kcd ho i h eItg t I leut t' , lii\ -li I iT', **If t** l **ittlo** i, 1 t Ilte", I,0ilrtt ic. i !h ;1 .tdrtiJillistr uliOe .litti,i ti Ia ri Iitidii tilL': ir i li: lil; t'f i ne i o clulee tlllhl toi.l ill proti . . isperori in ill eotitrno i i Illi !.ht 0i F itl !eu BIt;titloll to i1it.ii:oll,ll lCi orr, b,iu'iisdi !uil.,ig aolzl Ilh!,lSti' L itirkot r:t,R Ill is nilIdisI,crl;iIhle toi last rt **r** d lg rt **e** t 'ru P yen nll wlu hile fess, coiii ri.s w fre trade itretforin t' Is bee ii ousiflined, noiw i mi vet tboast oi the, satI **e** 1h:l% ler-lot pror ctionl ao s towv praiI ic- retrll t ig citilitties

> else.wl0iere II tit world. Siiu-Siarxartti Afrielit C H;to)liures very dii, rrCd rade regities, helt t:ak aditinistra: is capacir, ind tleirh **1** levvls o! income: ail contribute ro rtlo ri-Ftivcl slow t ace ol trade l hilera! i Zn Ottim Itn trh. coluntriCes.

lF routir l detitiis hriee indi calors of tie. SIu`r-linidhilits )t retwrin i he .tattet in !evel nil'd 'i rl o **t** risetunti rv ,, I , all **Md** 'xpelIJihloirios; rlh rim it g sll o 0 d dii( l i ili iori it, exports; d the lcvel of iri,estittit, eJgeiJIlliv itvltt investenIti1 i! prodn.is jet ii . **(o** 1th hOni ' **t** thets t !C,i'. N r, rinceii ii .iiltplc'd i nt "! (e rot. i _W_ III i. h lle **it,** I) t .tiingeu. ii: ! _hliZtaiii_ ,tri (ltn! p atneiers iii tilit'[ lilout **,('** lirjij .t I 'rInie ijtlt ,7ri >I' I,tl\ i I tlepiLid ti ( ii Ide ra' "s; tl'ii de , ir> hie '( e e t. i! .i **!** ! i' 1 W Cit,n! vl' got tr int-t **p** )tY ill inp 'ui tij **i** nfl e (;!tt!t do tlitin his i ke pJk lc Thispaper--aprodti tof tie U 'Nl)l' \kotlid tank I adid FxpttslA ion l<sup>1</sup> r')l n; .1Ii tn. I roleo uli.le,, I **)i\** ,(11 P Res- uI Department-is based on hackgiotntd pa .r v Gin!Gbrel ti. 1 1 Ia l I!e h [ otlta Ii t ir, hI iltirlii ( 'lihals '- otL o., and john Nash. (.Copies of this rialpei ar1-c Iaailable ire or iI,, t X or Id I ik l sI II Stiree \\\ \:\ -loruon. I )( 2(4 7 Please contact Sheila Faillont roofimNl((-V! . tNxteln'ioil SUIt) 1 **pist ).** N N vetiher I 'ii) _Ie I'o`y Rce.rrch sr rc. .n r_ **\t** _,rkin ri' :i 5 '_ ! **_ii,.i_ 1,** ii:, - 2 ' .:' . _; development ,ssuss. An ,obuoutrz,retb_ s•'rsrri rt **i** rs V 1rl,, 12rr,-. ot n:.Li ,- **0 -** 1.0 -' **_.t iin I_** l 1 l _papers_ **_carn,_** _the n.setnc ofth!_ ot _an_ r) _j Ids_ lot _us e i,;,.i_ ! n r **.** iji **_i ii._** . **_.,1_** :1 _ohiO_ **_1_ - iS** , **_._** 0 _a-it krs' ou-n and_ **_Shb 1id_** _not bf atrirllted h( tohre III - R k l_ **_JI,_** _It .tiCl_ **C** r f I _n , ,_ **_',_ s** _, ,,_ **0** _., ml;_ e I _Oe_ I Prodtiuced by the Poli cv Resea rch Dissentin.t!tion Ltcntcr