The total land under cultivation and regional shares have been relatively stable over the 2003-2018 period, although concealing large movements in and out of cropland.<sup>5</sup>

**Table 1 – The global distribution of cropland in 2003 and 2018 (by region, in million hectares)**

||**201**<br>|**8**<br>|**200**<br>|**3**<br>|**Varia**<br>**(2003**<br>|**tions**<br>**-2018)**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Region**|**Cropland**<br>**(mn ha)**|**Cropland**<br>**share**|**Cropland**<br>**(mn ha)**|**Cropland**<br>**share**|**Gains**<br>**(mn ha)**|**Losses**<br>**(mn ha)**|
|Europe & Central Asia|345|28.51%|351|29.06%|24|30|
|South Asia|228|18.84%|224|18.54%|15|11|
|East Asia & Pacific|213|17.60%|218|18.05%|22|27|
|North America|191|15.79%|190|15.73%|13|12|
|Sub-Saharan Africa|105|8.68%|107|8.86%|20|22|
|Latin America &<br>Caribbean|90|7.44%|78|6.46%|22|10|
|Middle East & North<br>Africa|38|3.14%|39|3.23%|3|4|
|World|1,210|100%|1,207|100%|119|116|

Source: MODIS MCD12Q1. mn ha = million hectares. Calculation by authors.

Cropland locational characteristics exhibit wide variations within and across regions. Appendix Figure A2.1 shows the regional distributions of cropland pixels in 2003 (the beginning of our study period) with respect to locational characteristics, including distance to the nearest city of 50,000 people or more, the number of drought months between 2003 and 2018, land suitability for agriculture, distance to the coast, and distance to the nearest river. These graphs show similar patterns across regions in terms of distance to rivers and distance to cities, capturing the fact that access to markets, the presence of infrastructures, and the potential for surface water irrigation are quasi-universal conditions for agriculture. For instance, in each region, 80 percent of 2003 cropland is found to be located close to cities (within 31.5 km of a city in the Middle East and North Africa, and within 142.5 km of a city in North America, possibly reflecting better transport networks in North America). There are, however, stark disparities regarding the other contextual variables: Regions are very differently exposed to drought, with North America facing a more favorable climate and the Middle East and North Africa being the most exposed to droughts. In the Middle East and North Africa, the median 2003 cropland cell was exposed to 56 months of droughts over the 2003-2018 period, compared to 11 months for the median cropland cell in North America. The distribution of cropland also varies a lot in terms of distance to coasts, with the mass of cropland in North America being far from coasts (the Great Plains) and the bulk of cropland in the Middle East and North Africa being close to coasts (as the rest of the landmass in the region is mostly barren).

As shown in Table 1 above, the total amount of cropland has been relatively stable in each region over the 15 years of the studied period with the exception of Latin America and the Caribbean which

> 5 This is slightly contradictory with aggregated data produced by FAO, which estimates the increase in global cropland at 4.6 percent over the same period (for a different definition of cropland and a measure that is not georeferenced).

5