to the affected trading partners. This compensation could take the form either of a mutually agreeable tariff reduction in some other sector or of the affected trading partner being permitted to raise its tariff in some other sector in response. A second common feature is that, unlike other GATT provisions introduced below, these changes to tariffs were meant to apply only to limited and well-defined _products_ , and not entire sectors or bundles of imports.<sup>71</sup> Over the entire GATT period of 1947-1994, countries invoked Article XIX on 150 different occasions to increase their tariffs temporarily and Article XXVIII on 275 occasions to increase their tariff bindings permanently (WTO, 1995). While there is little empirical research examining use of these provisions, access to some newly available archival data from the 1950s allows us to investigate patterns to some of the new import restrictions triggered right after the GATT’s inception.<sup>72</sup> For example, the early GATT negotiations for tariff reductions could have significantly over-estimated the amount of tariff-cutting liberalization that government might be able to sustain, thus triggering the need to raise We begin with the permanent tariff increases triggered under Article XXVIII. Between 1950 and 1959, the GATT Contracting Parties invoked Article XXVIII only 70 times (WTO, 1995). Thus it appears that formal actions to raise tariffs permanently under Article XXVIII were relatively rare, and when they arose, the requests were scattered across countries and sectors. The lack of major permanent tariff increases, at least for the major GATT members, is consistent with the downward trend in average applied tariffs for these countries over the GATT period (see again Figure 12).

Next, consider the frequency with which countries resorted to _temporary_ escape from their tariff commitments (Article XIX). A distinctive element of this channel is the mandate that, in order to justify use of Article XIX, governments were required to provide some evidence of unforeseen events having taking place, and that increased imports of the product were causing injury to the domestic, import-competing industry. Notably, the Article XIX provision has subsequently been transformed into the WTO’s Agreement on Safeguards. We have presented cross-country data on safeguards use over 1995-2013 in substantial detail in Section 3.1.

Overall, countries triggered temporary tariff increases in only 19 instances under Article XIX over 1950-1959; the US requested slightly more than half.<sup>73</sup> Figure 13 displays Article XIX use over 1950-1959 so as to make comparisons to safeguard use in more recent decades. The figure 71For example, an Article XIX action typically involved a tariff line or group of products like ‘hatter’s fur’ (US, 1951), ‘strawberries’ (Canada, 1957) or ‘hard coal’ (West Germany, 1957) rather than a broad industrial classification like ‘chemicals’ or ‘machinery.’

> 72Bown (2004) examines invocations of Article XIX and XXVIII over the 1973-1994 period in one of the relatively few empirical studies seeking to explain why countries used these provisions to implement additional import protection. The evidence there is consistent with a theory that countries invoked these exceptions when they needed to make changes to their trade policies between negotiating rounds and wanted to do so in accordance with GATT rules so as to avoid a dispute and potentially more severe retaliation by affected trading partners. For a theoretical exploration of the different GATT rules on _compensation_ under Article XIX and XXVIII versus under dispute settlement (GATT Article XXIII), see Bown (2002b). A case study of US import policy in the 20th century by Robert Baldwin (1983) suggests that the United States’ use of Article XIX cycled with changes in US trade law. The US law regarding safeguards varied in the stringency of qualifying criteria over decades with the result that safeguards were never used under the 1962 US Trade Act but were far more common after reforms to the law in 1974.

> 73Data on Article XIX investigations between 1950-1959 was collected from the GATT digital archive at Stanford University and each verbal description of a product was matched to the modern HS06 product classification.

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