# **1 Introduction**

Agriculture continues to be a vital sector in the rural economy of India. It contributed around 18 percent of India’s GDP in 2021 to 2022 (Reserve Bank of India, 2022) and engaged nearly 42 percent of the total workforce (Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, 2022). Despite the relatively low share of agriculture in GDP, the high share of employment still indicates its importance in the rural economy and its low productivity. Empirical evidence finds that agricultural growth has a strong impact on rural poverty reduction in India. Dev and Muntashir (2019) showed that a 1 percent rise in the growth of agriculture reduces rural poverty by 0.45 percent, which was the highest impact compared to growth in other sectors. Agriculture has a strong multiplier effect owing to backward and forward linkages. It generates effective demand for inputs and services such as fertilizers, machinery, and industrial goods and it also stimulates agro-processing and rural services (Pingali, 2019). Around half of the rural households still derive their major source of income from agriculture, according to the latest estimates (NSSO, 2021).

Rajasthan, the largest state in terms of area, is one of the most diverse agricultural systems in India. The state has unique geo-climatic conditions that influence its agricultural contribution to the Indian economy, with a preponderance of oilseed, pulses and coarse cereals (Swain et al., 2012). ICRISAT estimates suggest that 54 percent of Rajasthan’s total area is cultivated, with 20 percent considered less cultivated, and the rest unsuitable for agricultural production, and the sequelae for farmers’ condition in various climatic zones it has from the arid Thar desert to the eastern plains (Rathore, 2004). Among the major constraints to meeting the agricultural potential present in Rajasthan, the limitations of water stand out; with less than half of the cultivated area is irrigated, and the tutelary rains differ from 300mm in the western region to more 1000mm on the eastern border (Rathore et al., 2013). A study of the long-term rain data indicates that the districts face 15 percent positive rain shock probability and 19 percent negative shock probability. The crops are diversified, and at least seven crops characterize the agricultural system: wheat, millets, maize, chickpeas, pulses, mustard and soybean (Singh et al., 2016).The variability in rainfall and the consequent weather shocks not only affect crop yields, but also significantly hinder the potential for economic diversification in rural communities, exacerbating vulnerabilities across both agricultural and non-farm sectors.

The relationship between weather patterns and agricultural productivity has become increasingly critical to understand as climate variability intensifies. Research demonstrates that rainfall variations significantly influence agricultural output through multiple pathways. Auffhammer et al. (2012) found that changes in monsoon timing and intensity can reduce rice yields by up to 23 percent in major growing regions of India, while Zaveri et al. (2020) documented that rainfall variability explains approximately 20 percent of year-to-year crop yield fluctuations across India’s semi-arid regions. The impact operates through several mechanisms: rainfall directly affects soil moisture content, temperature variations influence crop phenology and growing season length, and extreme weather events can cause both immediate crop damage and longer-term effects on soil quality and water availability (Ray et al., 2015). Kumar et al. (2021) demonstrated that even in years with normal total rainfall, irregular distribution during critical growth stages can reduce crop yields by 15-30 percent. Birthal et al. (2015) showed that factors such as soil organic matter content, irrigation 2