farm size classes (<20 ha; 20-50 ha; 50-120 ha, and > 120 ha). As there were no PSG applicants with more than 120 ha, this yielded a total of 7 strata. See Deininger _et al._ (2024) for a more detailed discussion of the sampling procedure, including a comparison to the official statistical database.

Data were obtained by phone in two waves in winter 2022/23, when information on the 2021 and 2022 agricultural seasons was collected, and in winter 2023/24, collecting data for the 2023 agricultural season, providing a three-year panel with data from before and during the war for the same farms. As might be expected in a setting where trust is low, the population has been traumatized by conflict, and mobile connectivity or electricity are frequently disrupted, levels of nonresponse and attrition were unfortunately very high: out of a total sample of more than 10,000 sample farms, only 2,500 valid responses were obtained in the 2022 round and only about half of these could be traced and provided answers in 2023.<sup>18</sup> To assess whether selective non-response may have resulted in bias, we can use data for all SAR registrants to check for variables that might increase the likelihood of a valid survey response by running a probit regression for whether a survey response was obtained. Results from doing so in appendix table A2 show that, with a marginal effect of 0.18 having applied for programs other than PSG is by far the most important predictor of a positive response to the survey, followed by being organized as a FOP (marginal effect of 0.13), having applied for PSG (0.10), and considering an application for credit (0.07).<sup>19</sup> Once these factors are controlled for, proximity to the front, as indicated by a dummy for being located within 50 km from the frontline, does significantly affect the likelihood of a positive survey response.

To appreciate the impact of the war on sample farms, table 2 displays, for farms participating in both survey years, changes between 2021 or 2022 and 2023 in area cultivated and profitability as well as factor use, credit market participation (actual and desired), and perceptions.<sup>20</sup> Panel A suggests that, while mean area cultivated remained approximately constant, physical yields for key crops decreased by between 6% (for rapeseed) and 21% (maize or sunflower) in the first war year but returned close to pre-war levels in 2023. This display of resilience notwithstanding, revenue per hectare decreased by 34% between 2021 and 2022 to US$714 with a further decline to US$597 (or 56% of the 2021 level) in 2023. With an increase of 26% in input costs over 2021 levels in 2022, this led profits per hectare to drop by 60%, from US$778 to US$313. The share of output sold to the market decreased from 78% to 68% in 2022 and remained 20 percentage points below

> 18 Two-thirds of the nonresponses were due to inability to reach the relevant contact, in most cases because phone lines were unreachable or disconnected or the enterprise had gone out of business whereas one-third was due to refusal. A probit model with baseline covariates suggests that the likelihood of non-response is much lower among PSG beneficiaries (-25%), applicants to other programs (-48%), those hoping to access credit (-17%), or FOPs (-30%) is much lower than for the rest of the sample. Respondents’ status, perceived personal situation, experience of direct war damages, and region did not affect response rates, but larger farms were significantly less likely to respond. 19 Respondents may reason that responding to the survey could increase their chances of receiving support. 20 As these are farm-level differences, there is no need to apply weights.

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