**Annex Table 4A: Effects of oil price shock on projected external DSA indicators, 2015-2034**

|**EXTERNAL DSA**|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**PV of debt-to GDP ratio**||**CHAD**|||**NIGERIA**|||**CAMEROON**||**R**|**EP OF CON**|**O**|
|<br>**Difference with original baseline (pp)**|Max<br>|<br>Length (yrs) <br>|Average<br>|Max<br>|Length (yrs) <br>|Average<br>|Max<br>|Length (yrs)<br>|Average<br>|<br>Max<br>|**.**<br>Length (yrs)<br>|<br> Average<br>|
||Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviatio|n of deviation|deviation|
|Fiscal Financing|10|17|5|37|11|16|3|17|2|29|17|16|
|CAB financing|19|17|10|54|11|23|9|17|5|48|17|25|
|**Difference with Threshold (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
|Original|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|
|Fiscal Financing||||||||||7|8|4|
|CAB financing|5|6|3|18|3|15|0|0||26|10|17|
|**PV of debt-to exports ratio**||**CHAD**|||**NIGERIA**|||**CAMEROON**||**R**|**EP. OF CONG**|**O**|
|**Difference with original baseline (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
||Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviatio|n of deviation|deviation|
|Fiscal Financing|74|17|39|159|11|71|22|17|11|61|17|32|
|CAB financing|125|17|63|229|11|100|47|17|25|98|17|49|
|**Difference with Threshold (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
||Breach|of breach<br>|breach<br>|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|
|Original|57|12|37||||||||||
|Fiscal Financing|83|16|54|22|1|22|||||||
|CAB financing|133|18|69|92|5|38|2|2|1|11|3|9|
|**PV of debt-to revenue ratio**||**CHAD**|||**NIGERIA**|||**CAMEROON**||**R**|**EP. OF CONG**|**O**|
|**Difference with original baseline (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
||Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviatio|n of deviation|deviation|
|Fiscal Financing|86|17|45|187|11|91|22|17|12|90|17|48|
|CAB financing|147|17|73|273|11|129|58|17|31|146|17|75|
|**Difference with Threshold (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
||Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|
|Original|||||||||||||
|Fiscal Financing|||||||||||||
|<br>CAB financing|46|6|29|39|3|31|||||||
|**Debt service-to exports ratio**||**CHAD**|||**NIGERIA**|||**CAMEROON**||**R**|**EP. OF CONG**|**O**|
|**Difference with original baseline (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
||Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviatio|n of deviation|deviation|
|Fiscal Financing|12|19|5|37|10|19|1|9|1|10|19|4|
|CAB financing|22|19|8|58|10|27|1|9|1|17|19|6|
|**Difference with Threshold (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
||Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|
|Original|||||||||||||
|Fiscal Financing|8|10|4|18|5|10|||||||
|CAB financing|19|10|10|39|6|21||||4|3|2|
|**Debt service-to revenue ratio**||**CHAD**|||**NIGERIA**|||**CAMEROON**||**R**|**EP. OF CONG**|**O**|
|**Difference with original baseline (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
||Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviatio|n of deviation|deviation|
|Fiscal Financing|9|19|4|44|10|21|1|9|0|13|19|5|
|CAB financing|18|19|7|69|10|32|1|9|0|22|19|8|
|**Difference with Threshold (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|
||Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|Breach|of breach|breach|
|Original|||||||||||||
|Fiscal Financing|4|3|2|25|5|15|||||||
|CAB financing|9|7|6|50|6|28||||6|4|3|

Source: Authors’ calculations based on country DSAs.

# **<u>Annex Table 4B: Effects of oil price shock on projected fiscal DSA indicators, 2015-2034</u>**

|**FISCAL DSA**<br>|||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**PV of debt-to GDP ratio**||**CHAD**|||**NIGERIA**|||**CAMEROON**||**R**|**EP. OF CON**|**GO**|
|**Difference with original baseline (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs|) Average|
||Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviatio|n of deviation|deviation|
|Fiscal Financing|10|17|6|37|11|16|4|17|2|29|17|16|
|CAB financing|19|17|10|54|11|23|10|17|5|48|17|25|
|**PV of debt-to revenue ratio**||**CHAD**|||**NIGERIA**|||**CAMEROON**||**R**|**EP. OF CON**|**GO**|
|**Difference with original baseline (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs|) Average|
||Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviatio|n of deviation|deviation|
|Fiscal Financing|76|17|40|220|11|107|30|17|16|90|17|48|
|CAB financing|128|17|65|303|11|145|65|17|35|145|17|75|
|**Debt service-to revenue ratio**||**CHAD**|||**NIGERIA**|||**CAMEROON**||**R**|**EP. OF CON**|**GO**|
|**Difference with original baseline (pp)**|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs)|Average|Max|Length (yrs|) Average|
||Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviation|of deviation|deviation|Deviatio|n of deviation|deviation|
|Fiscal Financing|9|19|4|47|10|23|1|9|1|13|19|6|
|CAB financing|16|19|7|72|10|33|1|9|1|22|19|8|

Source: Authors’ calculations based on country DSAs.

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