# **TABLE 3: URBAN NATURAL INCREASE AND URBAN CONGESTION, 1960-2010**

|Dependent Variable:|Coeff.<br>_Ugr_<br>_1960-2010_|Coeff.<br>_△Urb_<br>_1960-2010_|Obs.|Adj.<br>-R2|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|1. Urban Population Living in Slums (%, 2005-2010)|6.5**<br>(2.7)|0.0<br>(0.3)|95|0.79|
|Dependent Variable:|Coeff.<br>_Uni_2000|Coeff.<br>_Migr_|Obs.|Adj.<br>-R2|
|2. Urban Population Living in Slums (%, 2005-2010)|14.5***<br>(4.9)|4.6*<br>(2.4)|95|0.80|
|3. Lack of Suffcient Living Area (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|8.9*<br>(4.4)|3.3<br>(2.5)|57|0.70|
|4. Housing Unit with Finished Floor (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|-8.5<br>(5.7)|-3.0<br>(3.6)|66|0.64|
|5. Access to Improved Water Source (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|-3.7**<br>(1.7)|-2.2*<br>(1.2)|92|0.59|
|6. Access to Sanitation Facilities (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|-0.7<br>(2.8)|-1.7<br>(1.9)|92|0.85|
|7. Solid Fuels as Source of Energy (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|13.6*<br>(7.5)|2.5<br>(5.2)|78|0.81|
|8. School Attendance for 6-15 y.o. (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|-10.8***<br>(3.7)|-2.4<br>(2.6)|65|0.76|
|9. PM10 Pollution (Urban, mg per m<sup>3</sup>, 2000-2010)|18.0*<br>(10.1)|-0.0<br>(5.8)|94|0.49|
|10. Empl. in Manufacturing & FIRE (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|-3.1**<br>(1.4)|-0.9<br>(0.9)|79|0.79|
|11. Empl. in Personal Services (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|3.8*<br>(1.9)|1.1<br>(1.0)|76|0.43|

_Notes:_ The main sample consists of 95 countries that were still developing countries in 1960. Robust SEs; * p _<_ 0.10, ** p _<_ 0.05, *** p _<_ 0.01. The specification is the same as in row 7 of Table 2 (Cross-Section: Controls; Region FE) except we also include the decadal change in the urbanization rate between 1960 and 2010 (coeff. not shown in rows 2-11). Row 1: Regression of the slum share (%) on the annual urban growth rate (%), _Ugr_ , and the decadal change in the urbanization rate (%), _△Urb_ , between 1960 and 2010. Rows 2-11: Regression of urban congestion measures on the urban crude rate of natural increase in 2000 _Uni_ 2000 (which we use as a proxy for urban natural increase in 1960-2010), the residual migration rate _Migr_ (here defined as the difference between the annual urban growth rate in 1960-2010 and the rate of urban natural increase in 2000), and the decadal change in the urbanization rate (%) between 1960 and 2010 (coeff. not shown). See Web Appendix for data sources.

**TABLE 4: URBAN NATURAL INCREASE AND URBAN DEPENDENCY RATIOS, 1960-2010**

|Dependent Variable:|Coeff.<br>_Uni_2000|Coeff.<br>_Migr_|Obs.|Adj.<br>-R2|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|1. Child Dependency (0-14 y.o.) (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|10.2***|0.7|89|0.87|
||(2.7)|(1.2)|||
|2. Aged Dependency (65+y.o.) (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|-2.8***|-1.2***|89|0.79|
||(0.6)|(0.3)|||
|3. Total Dependency (0-14|65+y.o.) (Urban, %, 2000-2010)|7.4***|-0.5|89|0.84|
||(2.7)|(1.3)|||

_Notes:_ The sample consists of 89 countries that were still developing countries in 1960. Robust SEs; * p _<_ 0.10, ** p _<_ 0.05, *** p _<_ 0.01. The specification is the same as in row 7 of Table 2 (Cross-Section: Controls; Region FE) except we also include the decadal change in the urbanization rate between 1960 and 2010 (coeff. not shown). We regress the urban dependency ratios on the urban crude rate of natural increase in 2000 _Uni_ 2000 (which we use as a proxy for urban natural increase in 1960-2010), the residual migration rate _Migr_ (here defined as the difference between the annual urban growth rate in 1960-2010 and the rate of urban natural increase in 2000), and the decadal change in the urbanization rate (%) between 1960 and 2010 (coeff. not shown). See Web Appendix for data sources.

20