the same: rapid and inclusive development can be seen as an adaptation in itself since it substantially reduces climate change impacts on poverty.

We do not attribute a probability to the realization of our optimistic or pessimistic baselines. However, the COVID-19 pandemic obviously changes the plausibility of the pessimistic baselines: while a stagnation of extreme poverty incidence could have been considered particularly pessimistic only one year ago, it is now estimated that the COVID-19 crisis could push 71 million people into extreme poverty in 2020 under the baseline scenario and 100 million under the downside scenario (World Bank, 2020). And COVID-19 leaves most countries with high debt levels and less resources to invest in development, poverty reduction, and access to health care and infrastructure services. A slower reduction in extreme poverty between now and 2030 would translate into a larger share of the global population with extreme vulnerability to climate change impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic is therefore contributing to future climate change impacts.

At the same time, governments have responded forcefully to the COVID-19 crisis with major investments in social protection (Gentilini, Almenfi, Orton, & Dale, 2020), and large-scale recovery packages. 2 These responses offer opportunities to boost the future resilience of the population, for instance with improved social protection and health coverage for the poorest (Bodewig & Hallegatte, 2020), or with investments in landscape and ecosystems that contribute to resilience (Hallegatte & Hammer, 2020).

In the next months and years, it will be critical to ensure that all synergies are captured between the response to COVID-19 (and the global economic crisis it has triggered) and anticipated climate change impacts. This study shows that the likely short-term impacts of climate change on poverty (32 million to 132 million additional people in extreme poverty by 2030) are of the same orders of magnitude as the impacts of COVID-19 (71 million to 100 million additional people in extreme poverty). There is utmost urgency to act to protect people affected by the COVID-19 crisis and restore the historical trend toward the eradication of extreme poverty, but doing so is possible only by factoring in future climate change impacts and the need to provide all individuals, and especially the poorest, with the capacity and resources to adapt to them.

# **References**

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Bankes, S., Walker, W. E., & Kwakkel, J. H. (2013). Exploratory modeling and analysis. In S. I. Gass & M. C. Fu (Eds.), _Encyclopedia of operations research and management science_ (pp. 532–537). Boston, MA: Springer US. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4419-1153-7 ~~3~~ 14 Barnes, M. L., Wang, P., Cinner, J. E., Graham, N. A., Guerrero, A. M., Jasny, L., . . . ZamborainMason, J. (2020). Social determinants of adaptive and transformative responses to climate change. _Nature Climate Change_ .

Bathiany, S., Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., & Lenton, T. M. (2018). Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries. _Science advances_ , _4_ (5), eaar5809.

Bodewig, C., & Hallegatte, S. (2020). _Building back better after covid-19: How social protection can help countries prepare for the impacts of climate change. development and a changing climate._ Retrieved 202008-15, from `https://blogs.worldbank.org/climatechange/building-back-better-after-covid -19-how-social-protection-can-help-countries-prepare` Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M., & Miguel, E. (2015). Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. _Nature_ , _527_ (7577), 235–239.

> 2https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19

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