# **Table 5.** **_Association between import volume growth and the World Trade Uncertainty (WTU) index_**

|Coefficient of Log(Trade Uncertainty index+1)|Growth|ingoods and s|ervicesimpor|tvolume|Gr|owth ingood|simportvolu|me|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||contemp|oraneous|lagged|2 months|contemp|oraneous|lagged|2 months|
||(1a)|(1b)|(2a)|(2b)|(1a)|(1b)|(2a)|(2b)|
|Average|‐0.00338<br>(0.00714)||‐0.000337<br>(0.00762)||0.000142<br>(0.00652)||0.00425<br>(0.00662)||
|Australia (AUS)||‐0.00769*||‐0.00171||‐0.00496||‐0.000276|
|||(0.00434)||(0.00591)||(0.00479)||(0.00536)|
|Brazil (BRA)||0.0208***||0.0248***||0.0312***||0.0379***|
|||(0.00490)||(0.00417)||(0.00628)||(0.00540)|
|Canada (CAN)||0.00694**||0.00826*||0.0121**||0.0145**|
|||(0.00317)||(0.00465)||(0.00437)||(0.00552)|
|Chile (CHL)||0.00474||0.00595||0.00759||0.0106|
|||(0.00696)||(0.00485)||(0.00849)||(0.00709)|
|China (CHN)||‐0.0138**||‐0.00425||‐0.00949||‐0.00263|
|||(0.00597)||(0.00896)||(0.00765)||(0.00717)|
|Colombia (COL)||‐0.00116||0.0201***||0.00446||0.0260***|
|||(0.00831)||(0.00449)||(0.00936)||(0.00540)|
|France (FRA)||0.0138||0.0123||0.0237**||0.0221**|
|||(0.00889)||(0.00944)||(0.0104)||(0.0106)|
|United Kingdom (GBR)||‐0.0160***||‐0.0138***||‐0.0183**||‐0.0191**|
|||(0.00501)||(0.00475)||(0.00716)||(0.00696)|
|Greece (GRC)||‐0.0418***||‐0.0834***||‐0.0410***||‐0.0578***|
|||(0.0105)||(0.0130)||(0.0120)||(0.0140)|
|Ireland (IRL)||‐0.148***||‐0.0443***||‐0.0880***||‐0.0183*|
|||(0.00739)||(0.00585)||(0.00948)||(0.00890)|
|Japan (JPN)||0.0328*||0.0244||0.0129||0.00658|
|||(0.0181)||(0.0170)||(0.0163)||(0.0162)|
|Mexico (MEX)||0.00261||0.00432||0.00239||0.00332|
|||(0.00249)||(0.00336)||(0.00301)||(0.00324)|
|Netherlands (NLD)||‐0.0197***||‐0.0165*||‐0.0144**||‐0.0119|
|||(0.00533)||(0.00815)||(0.00646)||(0.00864)|
|Russian Federation (RUS)||‐0.0518**||‐0.0570***||‐0.0579***||‐0.0617***|
|||(0.0197)||(0.0191)||(0.0199)||(0.0191)|
|United States (USA)||0.00380||0.0109||0.00224||0.00799|
|||(0.00397)||(0.00777)||(0.00533)||(0.00809)|
|Growth in Real GDP|1.630***|1.675***|1.629***|1.674***|1.560***|1.600***|1.558***|1.593***|
||(0.155)|(0.159)|(0.155)|(0.160)|(0.216)|(0.224)|(0.216)|(0.229)|
|Growth in Real effective exchange rate|0.301**|0.294*|0.302**|0.297**|0.315**|0.305**|0.316**|0.308**|
||(0.141)|(0.142)|(0.142)|(0.141)|(0.144)|(0.145)|(0.145)|(0.144)|
|Lagged growth in tariff rate|‐0.0129|‐0.0161|‐0.0131|‐0.0182|‐0.0233|‐0.0262|‐0.0240|‐0.0288|
||(0.0174)|(0.0203)|(0.0174)|(0.0212)|(0.0218)|(0.0232)|(0.0216)|(0.0232)|
|Constant|0.0161|0.0152|0.0160|0.0149|0.0203|0.0200|0.0201|0.0202|
||(0.0117)|(0.0121)|(0.0117)|(0.0118)|(0.0137)|(0.0139)|(0.0137)|(0.0137)|
|C fid ff|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|
|ountry xe eects|es|es|es|es|es|es|es|es|
|Year fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|R‐squared|0.695|0.713|0.694|0.707|0.671|0.682|0.671|0.681|
|Numberofobservations|458|458|458|458|458|458|458|458|

_Source_ : International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics, World Trade Organization, World Bank World Development Indicators, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, Baker et al. (2016), and authors’ calculations. See Table 1 for details on sources and definitions. Notes: Heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors corrected for clustering at country level are reported in parentheses. * p<0.10; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01. Panel covers period 19952018. Growth indicators are computed as log-differences. A lag effect is allowed in specifications 2a, 2b and 2c. Specifically, the EPU aggregate for year _t_ is based on monthly indexes from January through December of year _t_ , in specifications 1a, 1b and 1c, and from November of year _t-1_ through October of year _t_ , in specifications 2a, 2b and 2c. Results for goods import volume specifications are robust to using data on goods import volume from World Trade Organization.

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