– **Table 2** Correlates of slump duration

|||_Additive_|||_Interacte_|_d_|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||||_Fixed ef_|_ects on . . ._|||
||None<br>(1)|Region<br>(2)|Region + Time<br>(3)|None<br>(4)|Region<br>(5)|Region + Time<br>(6)|
|<sup>�</sup>||_Panel (a)_|_Structural break_|_s estimated wi_|_th size = 0.1_|_0_|
|Executive Constraints ( <br>_INS_0)<br>|-0.150**<br>(0.062)|-0.174***<br>(0.063)|-0.227***<br>(0.072)|-0.225***<br>(0.072)|-0.255***<br>(0.077)|-0.282***<br>(0.084)|
|Fractionalization ( <sup>�</sup><br>_ELF_15)|0.011**|0.016***|0.016***|0.014***|0.020***|0.019***|
||(0.005)|(0.005)|(0.005)|(0.005)|(0.005)|(0.005)|
|�<br>_INS_0_×_ <sup>�</sup><br>_ELF_15||||-0.004**<br>(0.002)|-0.004***<br>(0.001)|-0.003*<br>(0.002)|
|US Real Interest Rate|-0.139**|-0.134***|-0.122**|-0.118*|-0.118**|-0.111**|
||(0.061)|(0.052)|(0.056)|(0.060)|(0.051)|(0.054)|
|Initial log GDP|-0.149**|-0.017|-0.056|-0.157**|-0.029|-0.061|
||(0.076)|(0.091)|(0.078)|(0.072)|(0.089)|(0.078)|
|Exits|43|43|43|43|43|43|
|Spells|54|54|54|54|54|54|
|Years of Decline|383|383|383|383|383|383|
|Log-_L_|-76.214|-73.641|-68.075|-74.780|-71.978|-66.941|
|Pseudo-R<sup>2</sup>|0.098|0.129|0.195|0.115|0.149|0.208|
|||_Panel (b)_|_Structural break_|_s estimated wi_|_th size = 0.2_|_0_|
|Executive Constraints ( <sup>�</sup><br>_INS_0)|-0.179***|-0.177***|-0.167***|-0.237***|-0.239***|-0.215***|
||(0.055)|(0.059)|(0.055)|(0.058)|(0.062)|(0.060)|
|Fractionalization ( <sup>�</sup><br>_ELF_15)|0.007|0.011**|0.011**|0.009**|0.014***|0.013***|
||(0.004)|(0.005)|(0.005)|(0.005)|(0.005)|(0.005)|
|�<br>_INS_0_×_ <sup>�</sup><br>_ELF_15||||-0.004**|-0.003**|-0.003*|
|||||(0.002)|(0.001)|(0.002)|
|US Real Interest Rate|-0.073|-0.067*|-0.075|-0.059|-0.059|-0.071|
||(0.046)|(0.041)|(0.054)|(0.044)|(0.040)|(0.052)|
|Initial log GDP|-0.130*|-0.021|-0.065|-0.135**|-0.037|-0.075|
||(0.067)|(0.075)|(0.070)|(0.064)|(0.073)|(0.069)|
|Exits|61|61|61|61|61|61|
|Spells|74|74|74|74|74|74|
|Years of Decline|489|489|489|489|489|489|
|Log-_L_|-105.691|-102.837|-97.312|-104.042|-101.201|-96.122|
|Pseudo-R<sup>2</sup>|0.083|0.108|0.156|0.097|0.122|0.166|

_Notes_ : All models include a constant. The standard errors are clustered at the country level to account for repeated spells. Some countries are not included in the Polity IV data, so that we analyze at most 54 (out of 57) or 74 (out of 77) spells.<sup>_∗_</sup> _p <_ 0 _._ 1,<sup>_∗∗_</sup> _p <_ 0 _._ 05,<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup> _p <_ 0 _._ 01 _Source_ : Authors’ analysis based on data from the Penn World Tables version 9.0 (series _rgdpna/pop_ ). Additional data come from the Polity IV project, Desmet et al. (2012), and the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.

is why we consider it to be a robustness check and always focus our interpretation on the first set of results (unless indicated otherwise). The coefficients of executive constraints and fractionalization are significant in all estimations, apart from column (1) in panel (b) where the appropriate fixed effects are omitted and the coefficient on fractionalization turns marginally insignificant. An improvement in executive constraints by one standard deviation (2.28 points) is associated with a reduction in the duration of the decline phase of about 20