rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Ethnic polarization and the duration
            of civil wars
WPS4192 <mark>P</mark> OST <mark>-C</mark> ONFLICT <mark>T</mark> RANSITIONS <mark>W</mark> ORKING <mark>P</mark> APER <mark>N</mark> O <mark>. 6</mark>

# **Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars**<sup>**1**</sup>

Jose G. Montalvo Universitat Pompeu Fabra and IVIE Marta Reynal-Querol Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CEPR and CESifo

## **Abstract:**

In this paper we analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. We argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. Our empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.

Keywords: ethnicity, discrete polarization, civil wars, duration.

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4192, April 2007 _The Post-Conflict Transitions Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about post-conflict development (more information about the Post-Conflict Transitions Project can be found at_ _<u>http://econ.worldbank.org/programs/conflict</u>_ <u>).</u> _An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in these papers are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org ._ 1 We thank the participants in several workshops. Montalvo acknowledges the financial support of the grant SEC2004-04429 from the Spanish National Science Foundation. Corresponding author: Marta Reynal-Querol, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, C/ Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, Barcelona 08005, Spain. Office phone number: (34) 93 542 2509. Fax: (34) 93 542 1746. Email: marta.reynal@upf.edu.
Oil and the propensity to armed
            struggle in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria
This paper attempts to explain the
            determinants of the propensity to armed struggle and the
            probability of participation by individuals in the Niger
            Delta region of Nigeria using primary (micro) data. While
            grievance appears to be pervasive among individuals and
            communities in the region and can be systematically
            explained, neither the grievance level nor its commonly
            cited causal factors appear to be strong enough to create a
            disposition toward armed rebellion. Rather, factors that
            reduce the opportunity cost and risk of participation or
            increase the perceived benefits appear to be more important.
            The study identifies three of these factors that are
            amenable to the policymaker's (government's)
            control as income level, educational attainment, and
            government presence.
Using the global positioning system
            in household surveys for better economics and better policy
Distance and location are important
            determinants of many choices that economists study. While
            these variables can sometimes be obtained from secondary
            data, economists often rely on information that is
            self-reported by respondents in surveys. These self-reports
            are used especially for the distance from households or
            community centers to various features such as roads,
            markets, schools, clinics, and other public services. There
            is growing evidence that self-reported distance is measured
            with error and that these errors are correlated with
            outcomes of interest. In contrast to self-reports, the
            Global Positioning System (GPS) can determine almost exact
            location (typically within 15 meters). The falling cost of
            GPS receivers (typically below US$100) makes it increasingly
            feasible for field surveys to use GPS as a better method of
            measuring location and distance. In this paper the authors
            review four ways that GPS can lead to better economics and
            better policy: (1) through constructing instrumental
            variables that can be used to understand the causal impact
            of policies, (2) by helping to understand policy
            externalities and spillovers, (3) through better
            understanding of access to services, and (4) by improving
            the collection of household survey data. They also discuss
            several pitfalls and unresolved problems with using GPS in
            household surveys.
Current and forthcoming issues in
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One of the contentious issues in
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            from restructuring systems that are moderately well run.
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            financed the bulk of the government's ambitious
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            have reached world-class levels.  Yet the sector is
            confronted today with serious challenges.  South
            Africa's electricity system is currently facing a tight
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            industry is in serious financial trouble. This paper
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            identifies a range of policy and restructuring options to
            improve its performance. It suggests removing distribution
            from municipal control and privatizing it, calls for
            vertical and horizontal unbundling, and argues that the
            cost-benefit analysis of different structural options should
            focus on investment incentives and not just current
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A kleptocrat's survival guide :
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Autocratic regimes are quite often
            short-lived kleptocracies formed and maintained through
            force and used to appropriate wealth from subjects. Some of
            these autocracies collapse after only a year or two of
            plundering while others manage to survive for 15 or 20
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            while others fail. A database of political regimes from 1960
            to 2003 is introduced and accompanies the paper in an
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            autocrats exchange constraints on their executive power for
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            franchise and protect their power. Results show that
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            security are likely to accompany the most difficult
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The pricing dynamics of utilities
            with underdeveloped networks
This paper uses an analytically
            tractable intertemporal framework for analyzing the dynamic
            pricing of a utility with an underdeveloped network (a
            typical case in most developing countries) facing a
            competitive fringe, short-run network adjustment costs,
            theft of service, and the threat of a retaliatory regulatory
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            enhanced if it exercises restraint in the early stages of
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            price gradually converges toward the limit price as its
            network expands. Moreover, when the utility is threatened
            with retaliatory regulatory intervention, it will generally
            have incentives to restrain its pricing behavior. These
            findings have important implications for the design of
            post-privatization regulatory governance in developing countries.
Price structure and network
            externalities in the telecommunications industry : evidence
            from Sub-Saharan Africa
Many developing countries have
            experienced significant developments in their
            telecommunications network. Countries in Africa are no
            exception to this. The paper examines what factor
            facilitates most network expansion using micro data from 45
            fixed-line and mobile telephone operators in 18 African
            countries. In theory the telecommunications sector has two
            sector-specific characteristics: network externalities and
            discriminatory pricing. It finds that many telephone
            operators in the region use peak and off-peak prices and
            termination-based price discrimination, but are less likely
            to rely on strategic fee schedules such as tie-in
            arrangements. The estimated demand function based on a
            discreet consumer choice model indicates that
            termination-based discriminatory pricing can facilitate
            network expansion. It also shows that the implied price-cost
            margins are significantly high. Thus, price liberalization
            could be conducive to development of the telecommunications
            network led by the private sector. Some countries in Africa
            are still imposing certain price restrictions. But more
            important, it remains a policy issue how the authorities
            should ensure reciprocal access between operators at
            reasonable cost.
Price structure and network
            externalities in the telecommunications industry : evidence
            from Sub-Saharan Africa
WPS4200

# **PRICE STRUCTURE AND NETWORK EXTERNALITIES IN THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS**

# **INDUSTRY: EVIDENCE FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA**

Finance, Economics and Urban Development (FEU) World Bank 1818 H Street N.W. Washington D.C. 20433 Tel: 202-473-4698 Fax: 202-522-3481 Email: aiimi@worldbank.org Abstract Many developing countries have experienced significant developments in their telecommunications network. Countries in Africa are no exception to this. The paper examines what factor facilitates most network expansion, using micro data from 45 fixedline and mobile telephone operators in 18 African countries. In theory the telecommunications sector has two sector-specific characteristics: network externalities and discriminatory pricing. It is found that many telephone operators in the region use peak and off-peak prices and termination-based price discrimination, but are less likely to rely on strategic fee schedules, such as tie-in arrangements. The estimated demand function based on a discrete consumer choice model indicates that termination-based discriminatory pricing can facilitate network expansion. It also shows that the implied price-cost margins are significantly high. Thus, price liberalization could be conducive to development of the telecommunications network led by the private sector. Some countries in Africa are still imposing certain price restrictions. Importantly, however, it remains a policy issue how the authorities should ensure reciprocal access between operators at reasonable cost.

# World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4200, April 2007

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> ¶ I am grateful to Cecilia Briceno-Garmendia, Antonio Estache, Laszlo Lovei, and Mark Williams for their insightful suggestions and comments on an earlier version. In addition, I acknowledge various telecommunications regulatory agencies in Africa, which kindly cooperated on my questionnaire survey on price regulation practices. I also thank Lorenzo Bertolini, Candy Jones, Anat Lewin, and Marta Priftis for their assistance in collecting relevant data.
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China is now the world's largest
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Absolute poverty measures for the
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Does uncertainty matter A stochastic
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Emission permit trading is a centerpiece
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Rural land certification in Ethiopia
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