rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
- 10 -

to the drop in private consumption registered in the national accounts, which were derived from a variety of data sources other than the CILSS.<sup>4</sup> Second, if the transitory expenditure components were in fact measurement error, the regression results would imply that such errors tend to offset over a two-year period. Positive errors in one period would be associated with negative errors in the next period and vice versa. However, there is no reason to believe that a household with a tendency to over- or under-represent its expenditure would switch this tendency from one year to the next. Rather the opposite is likely to be the case. Survey experience has revealed that households have a tendency to repeat their answers over time and, if anything, to overlook change. This positive over-time correlation in answers reflects perhaps that in reality expenditures do display positive intertemporal correlation. A constant tendency to err is part of the fixed effects in the model and disappears in the first-differencing procedure.

Third, survey experience also suggests that reporting errors increase with the level of income or expenditure, and are thus larger for richer households. To the extent that such tendencies are constant over time, the first differencing procedure also eliminates them. Finally, there remains the possibility that there are genuine transitory expenditure components but that households do not accurately report them. However, the likely direction of such error would be to underestimate the magnitude of the change. Households who in the year of the survey have expenditures which exceed their usual level are likely to underreport the excedent. Vice versa, households who are having a bad year are likely to partly hide this by reporting higher than actual expenditure. This tendency to report usual rather than actual events has been observed in much survey work, especially in the area of expenditures (see e.g., Scott and Amenuvegbe, 1990). This would imply that the regression results underestimate actual welfare changes. If we accept the tendency to report the usual situation, then in the extreme case of a 4/ The CILSS data have been scrutinized quite carefully and compared to most other available data sources for Cote d'Ivoire. Correspondence has been found to be high (see Grootaert, 1993, for details). Also, the quality control of the CILSS field work was exceptional and many safeguards against measurement errors were built in (see Ainsworth and Munoz, 1986).
the recommendation relates to the amount of the government budget allocated to the sector; only the Turkey report specifies from where the reallocation is to come. In four cases, the recommendation is for an increase in sector expenditures relative to GNP, thus implicitly safeguarding the desired outcome against deterioration in the efficiency of overall public resource mobilization. In the remaining five cases, the report simply advocates an increase in real expenditures on education, and the outcome in terms of the intersectoral allocation of public resources remains undetermined.

4.03 In eight of these eighteen countries, the economic situation is described as improving, hence facilitating the implementation of the recommendation; the economy is considered stable in another five countries. The Cameroon, Lesotho, Malawi, Nigeria, and Peru reports advocate increasing public spending on education even though the country is facing difficult times. In Peru, the increase is considered essential "for social and political reasons" for the attainment of other development goals, and the report states clearly which sectors should be targeted for reallocations. The Nigeria report finds that the quality and equity of education and the condition of the physical plant have deteriorated so much that increased public spending on education is essential in spite of resource constraints. In all 18 countries, new sources of financing or cos: recovery measures are recommended.

4.04 When grouped by the country typology (see table IV.1), 15 of the 18 countries for which increased government spending on education is recommended indeed have a low rate of sector resource mobilization, representing three-fourths of all countries in that category. For the remaining five low SRM countries, PERs recommend maintaining the relative level of government spending.

Table IV.1: Sector **Financing** Strategies: Public Resource Allocation (Percentage of reports in each category of countries)

|Country<br>Category|Increase Allocation|Maintain Status Quo/<br>No Recommendation|
|---|---|---|
|Low SRM (20)<br>High SRM (16)|75<br>19|25<br>81|
|Low PE (17)<br>High PE (19)|47<br>53|53<br>47|
|Total (36)|50|50|

Note: Parantheses indicate the number of reports in each category.

36
# A Structural Model of

Establishment and Industry Evolution:

# Evidence from Chile<sup>∗</sup>

MURAT ̧SEKER<sup>†</sup> Enterprise Analysis Unit World Bank JEL Classification: L11, L6, O31, C15 Keywords: Industry evolution, Establishment dynamics, Innovation, Endogenous product scope, Parameter estimation.

> ∗I would like to thank to Samuel Kortum, Thomas Holmes and Erzo Luttmer for their advice and guidance. I also would like to thank to Patrick Bajari, Fabrizio Perri, Minjung Park, Daniel Rodriguez Delgado, participants of 2008 LACEA/LAMES conference and Macroeconomics seminar participants in the Development Research Group of the World Bank for their suggestions.

> †Correspondence: 1818 H Street, NW Washington DC, 20433 MSN: F4P-400 mseker@worldbank.org http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/

<mark>1</mark>
# Measuring Real Exchange Rate Instability in Developing Countries: Empirical Evidence and Implications

# by Lant Pritchett

# Table of Contents

|I.|The evolution of the RER in developing countries|3|
|---|---|---|
|II.|Evolution of RER asymmetry**iand**non-normality of exchange<br>rate changes|4|
||A.<br>Testing for asymmetry of RER changes<br>B.<br>Kurtotic distributions<br>C. Testing for asymmetry in kurtotic distributions|6<br>9<br>14|
|III.|Measuring RER variability|16|
||A.<br>Measuring variability|16|
|IV.|Higher order moments and economic performance|19|
|Conc|lusion|22|
|Appe|ndix Table A.1|24|
|Bibli|ography|25|
_Figure 7: Pollution and City Competitiveness in terms of Productivity Growth_ <!-- Start of picture text --> PM 2.5 Concentration and City GVA 2006−2015<br>WHO Guideline<br>5<br>●<br>●<br>● ●<br>0 ● ● ●●● ● ●●●● ● ●●●●● ● ●●●●● ● ●●●● ● ●●●●● ● ●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●● ● ● ● ●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●● ●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●● ●● ● ●● ● ●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●● ● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ● ● ● ● ●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●● ● ●●●●●●●● ● ●● ● ●●●● ● ● ● ●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●● ●● ●●●●● ● ●●●● ● ●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●● ● ●●●● ● ●●●●● ●● ●●●●●● ● ●● ●● ●●●●●●●●● ● ●●● ● ●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●● ● ●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●● ● ●●●● ● ●● ● ●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●● ●●●●●●● ● ●● ● ●●●●●●● ●●●● ● ●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●● ●●● ● ● ● ●●●●●●●● ● ●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●● ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●● ● Regions ●●●●● EAPECALACMENAOECD<br>● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● SAR<br>● ● ●<br>● ● ● SSA<br>−5 ●<br>● ●<br>● ●● ●<br>● ●<br>●<br>●<br>●<br>0 25 50 75 100<br>PM 2.5 in 2015<br> Percent, 2006−2015<br>City GVA per capita compared to National GVA<br><!-- End of picture text --> We find similar results when looking at employment growth and GVA growth. Most of the cities performing above the national average and experiencing high levels of pollution are located in East Asia Pacific and South Asia. However, when looking at performance in terms of GVA we see a slight distinction between East Asia Pacific and South Asian cities. Approximately half of the cities in East Asia are increasing their productivity well above their nation. Productivity is often easier to improve in upper‐middle or high‐ income countries such as China or the Republic of Korea. However, cities in South Asia belong to the low or lower‐middle country income group. Most of these cities struggle to make improvements in productivity, performing slightly above or below the national average, with the exception of a small group of six Indian cities which GVA is growing around 2.3 percentage points above the national average (Chennai, Madurai, Tiruchirappalli, Salem, Coimbatore, Tiruppur).

These figures show that there are certain patterns between pollution and city location. As previously discussed, this is likely a consequence of the average level of development each region experiences, and how pollution is associated with development, rather than a consequence of geographical location. However, when looking at the relationship between pollution and city competitiveness, the pattern is less 23
modified and the total number of observations available for regression analysis is considerably reduced. We compare these numbers with the observations available after the replacement mechanism we propose. Section 3 presents the _ICA method_ and other imputation mechanism used as comparators. We also comment on the different assumptions underlying the different methods proposed. We discuss to what extent the missing data mechanism (MDM) presented in the four surveys analyzed may be considered as missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), or non-ignorable. Section 4 shows the regression results for the extended production function under the different replacement methods. Finally, section 5 concludes. All tables and figures are included in an extensive appendix at the end of the paper.

# **2. Missing data and investment climate surveys**

We introduce the problem at hand with Table 1.1 (see appendix tables and figures) which shows the total number of observations, the observations available in the complete case and the final number of observations we have after the replacement process we propose—which we discuss later on—in 43 different ICSs. All the surveys share similar characteristics in the sampling procedure applied and, more importantly, in the information provided. The number of observations lost varies among all the surveys considered. The replacement process considerably increases the sample size in all cases (the method is described in section 3).<sup>9</sup> The problem of incomplete data is common to all the IC surveys considered, although it is more persistent in countries like Thailand, Niger, Paraguay, Tanzania and Turkey, in which the percentage of observations available in the complete case is below 30%.<sup>10</sup> In Table 1.1 we only consider missing values in production function variables. When we consider all variables likely to be used in regression analysis (all investment climate variables), the complete case even reduces to 0% in some cases.<sup>11</sup>

> 9 The sample with replacement fills missing values of all variables of the survey (both production function and IC variables).

> 10 By means of simplification we understand by _complete case_ the sample with replacement only in IC variables. 11 As said, the problem of missing data is, to a lesser or greater extent, common to almost all the variables presented in the IC surveys. We here consider the missingness and its treatment in production function variables (sales,

4
Financial Regulation and Development

# **Appendix F: Estimation and Confidence Intervals**

## **Bi-Monthly Variation Confidence Intervals**

Figure F1: Bank Aggregates and Policy Change: 95% Confidence Intervals <!-- Start of picture text --> 0 5 10 15 20<br>Time<br>NBE − Difference NBE − Difference 5pc<br>NBE − Difference 95pc<br>0 5 10 15 20<br>Time<br>Safe Assets − Difference Safe Assets − Difference 5pc<br>Safe Assets − Difference 95pc<br>1500<br>1000<br>500<br>Million Birr − Real 2010 0<br>−500<br>1500<br>1000<br>500<br>Million Birr − Real 20100<br>−500<br><!-- End of picture text --> 50
Policy Research Working Paper 9913

# **Abstract**

In 2015, Germany welcomed close to one million asylum seekers and refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, the Western Balkans and elsewhere. Although the country was often praised for its welcome culture, the inflow has spurred a debate about identity, social cohesion and the limits of multiculturalism. This paper analyzes the effect of this inflow on various dimensions of social cohesion. To separate causation from correlation, it exploits the fact that asylum seekers in Germany are allocated to local areas based on an area’s tax revenues and population several years prior. Therefore, the allocation is unrelated to current economic, political or social conditions. Based on survey data as well as data scraped from newspapers, the paper documents two sets of results. First, it finds no effect on self-reported indicators of trust and perceived fairness, and a small negative effect on and attitudes towards immigrants. In contrast, it finds that the refugee inflow led to an increased incidence of anti-immigrant violence that lasted for about two years. This increase is larger in areas with higher unemployment and greater support for right-wing parties.

This paper is a product of the Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at benjamin.elsner@ucd.ie.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
be very susceptible to a prolonged weakening of their immune function following in utero exposure to dioxins, even from low exposure levels.<sup>10</sup>

# **4. Data**

In this paper we use panel data at the country-level in order to measure the causal effect of the increase in Internet use on paper consumption. We construct a panel data set that allows us to measure the relationship between the growth in Internet use and the evolution of paper consumption by combining information from various global organizations publishing country-level data and deriving variables from combining these data.

Our data set on paper consumption by country is disaggregated by paper category including the following categories: Newsprint, Printing and Writing, Household and Sanitary, as well as aggregate paper consumption. We derived data on paper consumption from country-level data on paper production, paper exports, and paper imports from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Specifically, our data on paper consumption were derived using the following equation: Paper Consumptionijt = Paper Productionijt where _i_ represent the country, _j_ represents the paper category , and _t_ represents the year. Paper production can be disaggregated into various categories defined based both on the final use and on the technical characteristics concerning the production technology. Our data contain aggregate paper consumption and paper consumption for the following categories defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the

> 10 http://www.ejnet.org/rachel/rehw414.htm#2

12
- 13 -

As pointed out above, a rent tax could be imposed by expensing capital investment rather than deducting economic depreciation and the real opportunity cost of the capital committed, since the latter two deductions are equal to the purchase cost of capital in present value terms. This is the cash-flow base, which is defined as follows: BCF - Rr Cr - I, where Rr - realized revenues, Cr - realized current costs,

- I - gross investment expenditures.

The above cash flow base is the R-Base as defined by the Meade Report. There are other bases that could be used. Of particular interest is a "finance inclusive" cash-flow tax, where all incomings and outgoings are treated as revenues and costs for the purpose of computing the base, and not only those flows pertaining to real (production) transactions. That is, interest payment5i are in this case deductible, as in standard income taxes. But, in exchange, the loan itself is taxable when first raised, as a flow received by the firm. (In effect the government is then partaking in the loan and sharing in its service). Then the base is the following: BR+F - Rr - Cr - I - iB + NB, where iB - interest costs on net debt (i.e. gross debt net of financial assets), NB - net debt issues.
/ Specify the utility functions. Prior parameters are shown in square brackets after each parameter (e.g., b2) and attribute levels are shown in square brackets after each attribute name (e.g., 0,1,2,3). Note that the prior parameter estimates and attribute levels only need to be defined for the first job, and are automatically applied to the second job. / ;model: u(job1)= b1[-0.1] + b2[1.1] * contract[0,1,2,3] + b3[0.8] * notice[0,1,2,3] + b4 [1.1] * leave [0,1,2,3] + b5[0.4] * hours [1, 2, 3] + b6[0.1] * pfc[0,1] + b7[1.5]* salary[0,1,2,3,4,5] / u(job2)= b2 * contract + b3 * notice + b4 * leave + b5 * hours + b6* pfc + b7*salary $

# **References**

Carlsson, Fredrik and Peter Martinsson (2003). “Design Techniques for Stated Preference Methods in Health Economics.” _Health Economics_ 12: 281-294.

Hensher, David A., John M. Rose, and William H. Greene (2015). _Applied Choice Analysis_ . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Huber, Joel and Klaus Zwerina (1996). “The Importance of Utility Balance in Efficient Choice Designs.” _Journal of Marketing Research_ XXXIII: 307-317.

Louviere, Jordan J., David A. Hensher, and Joffre D. Swait (2000). _Stated Choice Methods— Analysis and Application_ . Cambridge University Press, UK.
described by Anderson (2008).

**Pre-analysis plan (PAP)** This study was pre-registered on the AEA Registry and successfully underwent the pre-results review process at the Journal of Development Economics. The experiment was run prior to the completion of this review process, but all post-baseline data was held with IPA administrators and not released to the authors until the pre-review process and PAP were complete, which occurred in March of 2021. Deviations from the PAP are minor and described in detail in Appendix Section B.

# **5 Experimental Results**

## **5.1 Completion of work**

We first establish that participants in the employment arm engaged in the work they were offered. Figure 2 exhibits the fraction of individuals in the employment arm who completed their work (Panel A) and made any mistakes (Panel B). No week exhibits below a 98% completion rate, indicative of participants’ desire to engage in the work. Mistakes were common in the early weeks of employment, but declined to hover around 5% from weeks three through eight. This suggests both that the task required some effort, such that many respondents had to learn how to perform well, and that respondents invested this effort and maintained a reasonably high quality of work throughout the experiment. Work quality is further reflected in the frequency of docked pay, which peaks at less than two percent (not shown), resulting in individuals in the work treatment arm receiving nearly exactly as much in remuneration as those in the cash treatment arm over the course of the intervention.

## **5.2 Empirical Framework**

We now estimate the effects of the cash and work treatment using the following regression: where _Yibc_<sup>1representstherelevantoutcomeforindividual</sup><sup>_i_inblock</sup><sup>_b_andcamp</sup><sup>_c_,</sup><sup>_Xibc_</sup> is a vector of sociodemographic controls selected via double-selection LASSO to maximize precision following Belloni, Chernozhukov, and Hansen (2014), and _εibc_ is an error term clustered at the block level. We include fixed effects for gender _σg_ , camp _γc_ and enumerator _δe_ .<sup>11</sup> We control for the baseline value of the outcome variable _Yibc_<sup>0whenavailableinan</sup>

> 11We follow Di Maio and Fiala (2019) and include enumerator fixed effects to account for the fact that

13
correlation of exports and GVC income across EU15 countries is less than 0.6 as patterns of offshoring have been rather different as discussed above.

**Table 4 Growth in manufacturing exports and manufactures GVC income between 1995 and 2008 (%)**

||Growth<br>in gross<br>export<br>value|Growth<br>in GVC<br>income|Difference|
|---|---|---|---|
|Germany|180|52|-129|
|France|121|59|-61|
|United Kingdom|79|45|-34|
|Italy|135|73|-62|
|Spain|213|90|-123|
|Netherlands|121|78|-43|
|Belgium|97|48|-49|
|Sweden|126|79|-47|
|Austria|225|76|-149|
|Greece|317|111|-206|
|Denmark|90|61|-28|
|Finland|159|80|-79|
|Ireland|187|164|-23|
|Portugal|140|62|-78|
|Luxembourg|101|151|50|
|Poland|603|261|-341|
|Czech Republic|692|304|-389|
|Romania|494|286|-207|
|Hungary|882|244|-638|
|Slovak Republic|716|391|-325|
|Slovenia|234|134|-100|

Note: Exports refer to gross export value of all manufacturing goods and GVC refers to GVC income in production of final manufactures. Growth rates calculated as (ratio of 2008 over 1995 minus one) times 100. _Source:_ Author’s calculations based on World Input-Output Database, April 2012.

# **5. The structure of European employment in global production of manufactures**

Many policy concerns surrounding globalization issues are ultimately about jobs - good jobs in particular. The disappearance of manufacturing jobs in advanced nations is occasionally linked to production fragmentation and associated offshoring of activities, see contributions in Bardhan, A., D. Jaffee and C. Kroll (2013) for an overview. It is thus useful to look at the structure of employment in global value chains and analyze the changes in the characteristics of workers directly and indirectly involved in the production of manufacturing goods, in short manufactures 29