EAST AFRICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE: A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE recovery record of any of the regional communities, with power tariffs covering 94 percent of the full capital costs of providing service

**Table 3.1. Benchmarking power infrastructure and capacity, access, and utility performance**

||ECOWAS|CEMAC|COMESA|EAC|SADC|Low-<br>income<br>countries|Middle-<br>income<br>countries|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Installed generation capacity (MW)|3,912|583|1,085|774|9,855|2,110|36,971|
|Net generation per capita, annual (kWh/capita/year)|171|147|114|82|1214|165|4,479|
|Outages, number, annually (number/year)|165|152|119|132|91|134|71|
|Outages, value lost, annually (% of sales)|7|5|7|8|2|5|2|
|Firms with own generator (% of firms)|54|51|43|56|19|33|18|
|Access (urban, % of population)|50|31|34|23|35|43|50|
|Growth in access of population to electricity, annual (%)|2|1|1|1|1|3|2|
|System losses (% of generation)|29|31|32|23|12||10|
|Cost recovery ratio, historical (%)|79|45|73|69|68|100|87|
|Total hidden costs (% of revenue)|159|107|102|65|4|544|0|
|Collection rate reported by utility, electricity (% of billing)|71|93|93|94|89||91|
|||WAPP|CA|PP|EAPP||SAPP|
|Average historic cost (US$/kWh)||0.21|0.|49|0.19||0.14─|
|Long-run marginal cost (US$/kWh)||0.18|0.|09|0.12||0.07─|
|Source: Eberhard and others 2009.||||||||

Note: CEMAC = Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa; COMESA = Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; EAC = East African Community; ECOWAS = Economic Community of West African States; SADC = Southern African Development Community.

The remainder of this section will focus on the East African Power Pool/Nile Basin (EAPP/NB) countries. Owing to the central role of the Nile Basin in determining hydropower potential, it is difficult to think about the region’s long-term energy prospects without including Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, which is potentially a large and creditworthy off-taker for hydropower generated further upstream. The benchmarks will be the other regional power pools—the Central Africa Power Pool (CAPP), the West African Power Pool (WAPP), and the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP).

The baseline total net demand for power in EAPP/NB was 100.6 terawatt-hours in 2005, making it the second-largest power market in Sub-Saharan Africa behind SAPP. Power outages suppress demand at the country level, albeit at varying rates. In Burundi, for example, 13 percent of net demand was suppressed in 2005. In a second group of countries that includes Djibouti and Kenya, between 6 and 8 percent of the effective power demand was suppressed. In the remaining countries, 95 percent of the effective demand was being met (in other words, just 5 percent of demand was suppressed).

Power demand in the EAPP area is expected to increase by 69 percent over the next decade. It is estimated that power demand could reach 169 terawatt hours by 2015. This total takes into account the need to fully satisfy existing demand for power; the anticipated expansion in market demand driven by economic growth in commerce and industry; and the need to provide additional power to support the planned expansion in electrification from 35 percent to 60 percent of households in the region. Meeting this demand will require the development of 26,000 megawatts of new generation capacity, which essentially calls for a doubling of existing capacity (table 3.2). These projections are based on economic 37