10 Nowrasteh, Forrester, and Blondin

**Table 4.** Synthetic  Jordan Country  Weights

||**Weight**|||**Weight**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|||**_Panel A. OIC All_**|||
|Mali|0.261||Turkey|0.000|
|Niger|0.000||Egypt|0.000|
|Sierra Leone|0.000||Syria|0.000|
|Nigeria|0.000||Pakistan|0.101|
|Morocco|0.000||Bangladesh|0.000|
|Tunisia|0.000||Malaysia|0.000|
|Iran|0.000||Indonesia|0.638|
|||**_Panel B. OIC Minus PAK_**|||
|Mali|0.231||Turkey|0.000|
|Niger|0.000||Egypt|0.086|
|Sierra Leone|0.000||Syria|0.000|
|Nigeria|0.000||Pakistan|–|
|Morocco|0.000||Bangladesh|0.002|
|Tunisia|0.000||Malaysia|0.000|
|Iran|0.000||Indonesia|0.681|
|||**_Panel C. OIC SAL_**|||
|Mali|0.226||Turkey|0.000|
|Niger|0.000||Egypt|–|
|Sierra Leone|0.000||Syria|–|
|Nigeria|–||Pakistan|0.092|
|Morocco|0.000||Bangladesh|0.000|
|Tunisia|0.010||Malaysia|–|
|Iran|–||Indonesia|0.672|

_Source_ : Authors’ analysis of the Gwartney, Lawson, and Hall (2017) Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index. Additional data come from the Polity IV dataset, Freedom House, the Database of Political Institutions (DPI), and the JuriGlobe database. _Note_ : Table presents estimated country weights to construct Synthetic Jordan based on the EFW index as the outcome. OIC denotes the full Organisation of Islamic Cooperation donor pool; OIC minus PAK denotes the OIC donor without Pakistan; and OIC SAL denotes the donor pool limited to OIC countries that received Structural Adjustment Loans (SALs) from either the World Bank or International Monetary Fund (IMF).

sizable gaps in Real and Synthetic Jordan’s EFW score in 2000 and 2005 correspond to a difference in EFW score of more than one standard deviation (see table S1.2 in the supplementary appendix S1). This result suggests that the improvements in economic institutions resulting from the refugee shock led to long-term improvements in Jordanian economic institutions.

Table 1 columns (3) and (5) are the gaps between the Real Jordan and Synthetic Jordans constructed from the OIC (minus Pakistan) and OIC-SAL pools of countries. These fits are poorer as the pretreatment RMSPE for OIC (minus Pakistan) and OIC-SAL were 0.104 and 0.119, respectively. However, the increase in Real Jordan’s EFW relative to the Synthetic Jordans in these two additional donor pools are similarly large to the preferred Full OIC specification and statistically significant in the same years of 2000, 2005, and 2010.

The RMSPEs in table 2 rows (2), (3), and (4) show the degree to which Synthetic Jordan fits Real Jordan - relative to the placebo synthetic control in pretreatment and post-treatment periods. Relatively high _p_ values show that a large proportion of the placebo synthetic control units have a worse fit than Synthetic Jordan, which provides evidence in favor of the Full OIC “donor pool.”

# Economic v. Political Liberalization

Lastly, we consider whether the refugee surge impacted political institutions. The study constructs a Synthetic Jordan based on the donor pool of 14 OIC countries with the Polity IV index as the outcome variable. The results in figure 3 panel (a) and supplementary appendix table S1.3 show a discrete jump in Jordan’s Polity IV score from 1988 to 1989 but that the OIC countries are a poor pretreatment