rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Table A4: T-test comparison of village head and PMT targeting methods – Grouped by village

||RMG-eligible<br>obs.|Random<br>Sample<br>obs.|RMG-eligible<br>mean|<br>Random<br>Sample mean|Diff. (RMG-<br>eligible –<br>Random<br>Sample)|PMT poor<br>obs.|PMT nonpoor<br>obs.|PMT poor<br>mean|PMT nonpoor<br>mean|Diff. (PMT<br>poor -<br>nonpoor)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Household composition|1146|742|-0.0231|0.0357|-0.0589***|1187|701|0.0149|-0.0252|0.0400***|
|Exposure to shocks|1146|742|0.0024|-0.0037|0.006|1187|701|-0.0115|0.0195|-0.031|
|Land and buildings<br>ownership|1146|742|-0.0178|0.0275|-0.0453|1187|701|-0.0213|0.0361|-0.0574|
|Woman characteristics|1146|742|-0.0134|0.0207|-0.0342***|1187|701|-0.0079|0.0133|-0.0211*|
|Nutrition|1146|742|0.0061|-0.0095|0.0156|1187|701|-0.0213|0.0360|-0.0573***|
|Livestock ownership|1146|742|-0.0548|0.0846|-0.1394***|1187|701|-0.0348|0.0589|-0.0936***|
|Housing conditions|1146|742|-0.0156|0.0240|-0.0396***|1187|701|-0.0151|0.0256|-0.0408***|
|Durables ownership|1146|742|-0.0283|0.0436|-0.0719***|1187|701|-0.0230|0.0390|-0.0620***|
|Total income per HH<br>member|1146|742|-0.0849|0.1311|-0.2160***|1187|701|-0.2011|0.3406|-0.5417***|

Note: Variables are rendered as composite z-scores, computed by excluding variables used in the creation of the PMT index, and by estimating means and standard deviations for each village in the sample of 1,888 observations. * p<0.1 ** p<0.05 *** p<0.01

# Table A5: T-tests of composite z-cores for RMG selection

RMG-eligible Random RMG-eligible obs. Sample obs. mean Diff. (RMGP-val eligible – 31
those described in Ravallion and Chen (2007, Section 2 and Annex). We have combined these estimates of poverty measures by province and over time with official data on the sources of provincial GDP from various issues of China’s statistical yearbooks. The trends reported in Table 1 are OLS estimates of the  _i_<sup>'</sup> _s_ in the regressions: ln _H it_   _i_   _it_   _it_ for provinces _i_ =1,.., _n_ and dates _t_ =1,.., _T_ . (When we quote the trend as % per annum we mean -100<sup></sup> _i_ .) The rates of rural poverty reduction differ markedly across provinces. In particular, while there is a noticeable negative trend in poverty in most of the provinces, the municipalities (Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai) show no tendency towards rural poverty reduction. This is not surprising since in the initial year the level of rural poverty was already very small in these provinces; the initial headcount index was 0.35% in Beijing, 0.77% in Shanghai and 3.44% in Tianjin while the average headcount index was 28.7% in 1983. Figure 1 presents the evolution of poverty in the province with the highest negative trend in rural poverty, Guangdong, and one of the municipalities (Shanghai). The figure makes clear how different is the evolution of poverty in these two provinces. In Guangdong the rate of rural poverty reduction is an astonishing 28.5% per annum. In the municipalities, including Shanghai, there was no significant reduction in poverty. All the rest of the provinces fit inside the cone generated by Guangdong and the municipalities but closer to the top than to the bottom.

The last two columns of Table 1 refer to the headcount index in the urban areas of ˆ each province. The average trend for poverty reduction in urban areas (   .0131) is higher ˆ than for rural areas (   .0089 ). It is again Guangdong that shows the fastest trend in urban poverty reduction: 33% per annum. However, in the case of urban poverty, the municipalities show a significant reduction. The rates for Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are 10%, 11.7% and 8.4% respectively.

The temporal evolution of rural poverty is quite different to that found in urban areas. Figure 2 gives an example of the typical trends of poverty reduction for provinces between Guangdong and the municipalities in terms of their trend of poverty reduction. Giangxi and Anhui start and end at similar levels. However, Giangxi shows a monotonic decrease in the headcount index, similar to Guangdong, while Anhui is a prototype of a different temporal evolution, which implies an increase in rural poverty when aggregate economic growth slows 6
# **Reference**

- Aggarwal, R., A. Demirguc-Kunt, and M. S. Martinez Peria (2005) “Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Financial Development?”, mimeo, Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

- Aggarwal, R. and A. Horowitz (2002) “Are International Remittances Altruism or Insurance?: Evidence from Guyana Using Multiple-Migrant Households”, _World Development_ , Vol.30, pp.2033-2044.

- Buch, C. M. and A. Kuckulenz (2004) “Worker Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Countries”, _ZEW Discussion Paper_ , No.04-31, Centre for European Economic Research.

- El-Sakka, M. I. T. and R. McNabb (1999) “The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances”, _World Development_ , Vol.27, No.8, pp.1493-1502.

- Freund, C. and N. Spatafora (2005) “Remittances: Transaction Costs, Determinants, and Informal Flows”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No.3704, Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

- Higgins, M. L., A. Hysenbegasi and S. Pozo (2004) “Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Workers’ remittances”, _Applied Financial Economics_ , Vol.14, pp.403-411.

- Ilahi, N. and S. Jafarey (1998) “Guestworker Migration, remittances and the Extended Family: Evidence from Pakistan”, _Journal of Development Economics_ , Vol.58, pp.485-512.

- Lucas, R. E. B. and O. Stark (1985) “Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana”, _Journal of Political Economy_ , Vol.93, No.5, pp.901-918.

- McKenzie, D. (2005) “Paper Wall are Easier to Tear Down: Passport Costs and Legal Barriers to Emigration”, mimeo, Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

- Ozden, C. (2006) “Remittance Flows in Latin America and the Caribbean: Patterns and Determinants”, mimeo, Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

- Straubhaar, T. (1986) “The Determinants of Workers’ Remittances: The Case of Turkey, _Weltwirtschaftl Archiv_ , Vol.122, No.4, pp.728-40.

- Swamy, G. (1981) International Migrant Workers’ Remittances: Issues and Prospects, _World Bank Staff Working Paper_ , No.481, Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

14
contract enforcement leads to a sizable (0.45 percentage point) increase in financial depth.

- **Credit Registries:** The seminal work by Japelli and Pagano (2002) finds that countries with information-sharing credit bureaus have financial depth 20 percentage points higher than those without any such institutions. In addition, they find that former countries have lower credit risk which in turn is positively associated with nonperforming loans (NPLs). Djankov, McLiesh, and Shleifer (2007) provide more robust empirical evidence on both hypotheses with a larger data set of 129 countries over 25 years.

- **Accounting Standards:**<sup>36</sup> Levine, Loayza, and Beck (2000) find that accounting standards explain a large portion of the variation in financial depth across countries. For instance, if Uruguay could push its accounting standards to the level of Chile’s, then Uruguay could enjoy greater banking sector depth than Chile.

Consequently, the coefficient estimates suggest that the effect of institutional factors can help countries achieve significant financial deepening which, as reported in section 2, leads to higher economic growth. The effect of regulations on financial sector depth is less pronounced, given that there is no relationship between capital requirements and official supervision on one hand, and financial depth on the other, while activity restrictions curtail financial deepening. Nevertheless, intense banking sector reforms seem to be strongly and significantly associated with financial depth, giving legitimacy to engagements with international organizations to pursue further reforms to strengthen financial sectors.

# **4.2 Financial Stability**

In the finance-growth nexus, financial stability is the second most frequently used indicator of financial sector development. Earlier, we discussed the findings of the literature, suggesting that financial fragility has significant negative effects on economic growth and output. This section attempts to identify a list of factors that are found to be robust determinants of financial stability. Our inventory offers quantitative effects of the following key determinants on financial stability.<sup>37</sup>

- **Regulations and Supervision**

- **Capital Requirements and Activity Restrictions:** Barth, Caprio, and Levine (2012) find that capital requirements are associated with lower NPLs but this association disappears when government banks are considered. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2010) argues that introducing Basel III is

> 36 Accounting standards are measured by an index that ranks the comprehensiveness of company reports.

> 37 The literature usually uses NPL ratios as well as the probability of crisis to measure financial stability. In addition, various indices are constructed for financial soundness (either individual bank level or systemic) based on NPL, capital adequacy ratios, and Moody's z-scores for banks.

17
**Figure 12 Public Debt Evolution during the Floating Exchange Rate Regime**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 4.0 68<br>Exchange Rate<br>3.6 64<br>3.2 60<br>2.8 56<br>Public Debt (right scale)<br>2.4 52<br>2.0 48<br>1.6 44<br>1999 2000 2001 2002 2003<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Bacen 39. These bonds had a fixed coupon and were sold **at a discount** , which would be crucial in the months to come. Given the high demand of the private sector for instruments that allowed hedging the exchange rate risk, average maturity of these bonds was doubled, form 9 months in 2000 to 18 months by end-2001. From the debt manager’s viewpoint, rollover risk was reduced (though at the expense of higher exchange rate risk.) From the monetary authorities perspective, the currency was not abandoned to a speculative attack due to Argentina’s crisis. By the year’s end, with an exchange rate at 2.32 after having reached a low of 2.80 Reais per dollar, many considered this episode an example of a successful intervention to puncture a speculative bubble and simultaneously the roll-over risk was reduced due to the lengthening of the maturity of the dollar-linked bonds.

40. However, in 2002 the negative external shock originated by Argentina’s collapse was compounded by the corporate corruption scandals in Wall Street that increased risk aversion of international investors. These external shocks were compounded by two domestic factors: a) the uncertainty of the future stance of fiscal policy that was one of the hottest issues in the early stages of the electoral campaign; b) the acceleration of the implementation of daily mark-to-market portfolios of mutual funds to end- May. Mutual funds carried public bonds on an accrual basis up until redemption, and originally had until September to adjust to the new methodology. To avoid registering the losses between the market value and face value, mutual funds began unloading their holdings of government paper. In addition, uncertainty about the future stance of fiscal policy and the government’s commitment to maintain the primary fiscal surplus, reduced the demand for long term government bonds, which precipitated further falls in their price. As some funds started to register losses and their net asset value decreased, massive deposit withdrawals took place, as described in the first section.

18
# 4.2 Metrics (M)

In designing its Master Plan, SEDAPAL was principally concerned with achieving water reliability as cost effectively as possible. For this analysis, SEDAPAL defines water reliability as meeting 90% of demand 90% of the time, measured monthly. In other words, water reliability is achieved if the 90th percentile of monthly met demand is at least 90%. This led to the use of two primary metrics used to compare portfolios:

1. The 90th percentile of monthly met demand (and whether this exceeds 90%), and

2. The cost of the plan (e.g. portfolio of investments).

We also evaluated the supply that would be provided to each of Lima’s demand regions to estimate the cost effectiveness of individual components of Lima’s Master Plan.

# 4.3 Uncertainties (X)

We assess three key uncertainties that challenge SEDAPAL’s ability to achieve water reliability:

1. **The level of demand in the city** . Demand will be shaped principally by future population growth and per-capita water use. This varies in different districts. Overall, Lima and Callao currently have a demand of 855 Mm<sup>3</sup> for a population of 9.5M. Official projections of 2040 population range from 11.5M to 15.5M and per-capita water consumption from approximately 170 to 240 l/p/day, giving a range of future demand of 730 Mm<sup>3</sup> per year to 1,790 Mm<sup>3</sup> per year.<sup>2</sup>

2. **Future stream flows** . In the wet season, 90% of Lima’s water is drawn from the Rimac, Chillón, and Lurin Rivers. The remaining 10% comes from groundwater. In contrast, in the dry season 20% comes from groundwater sources. Climate change and other factors may alter water flows, but downscaled climate projections and rainfall-runoff model are not yet available for these river basins. We explored how the system responds to potential changes in monthly stream flows proportional to the minimum (-60%) and maximum (+90%) changes in monthly precipitation, as projected in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 – see Figure 4-1).<sup>3</sup> This approach is consistent with the principles of Decision Scaling, which seek to assess the sensitivity of investments to climate (Brown _et al._ , 2012).

2 This approach provides a broad range of total future water demand in Lima in order to help establish limits of the Master Plan in ensuring water reliability. For this purpose, it is not necessary to differentiate domestic, commercial, agricultural, and industrial water demand. (The latter three are much smaller than municipal demands.) A future study that includes efficiency, reuse, and demand management policies should make these distinctions, however, because different policies are appropriate for each sector. For instance, recycled water may be appropriate for non-domestic uses.

3 The IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report was not available during the time this study was conducted. Appendix A provides details on how we used these changes to develop futures.

12
varies across time as some provinces are well protected for hazard events with low return periods, but would be seriously exposed in rare shocks. Finally, exposure varies across sectors, as some are more subjected to and affected by natural forces than others, and the contributions provinces make to the aggregated economy differ as well. Such complexity in exposure calls for sophisticated policy measures. Fortunately, the Vietnamese government is aware of these risks, and is actively trying to minimize them. An overview of existing policies and recommendations on how these can be extended to deal specifically with the hazards revealed here can be found in the main report, part 3.

> 1 Information from Fathom Global, https://tinyurl.com/sfzgo7z

> 2 Based on data provided by the Vietnam National Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA).

> 3 Data on aquaculture ponds and saline intrusion in the Mekong River Delta where obtained from Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SWIRR) in Hanoi, Vietnam.

> 4 Information from World Bank Open Data available at https://data.worldbank.org/

> 5 For a more detailed explanation of assessment of the coastal protection system in Vietnam, see the technical background paper by Van Ledden et al. (2020).

> 6 The process can be imagined as laying a raster grid consisting only of squares on top of the pond data in polygon format, which consist of many irregular shapes. Due to the fixed grid structure of the raster, not all information from the irregular polygons can be retained. For each square in the raster grid, the rasterization algorithm decides whether to classify the square as “pond” or “non-pond”. In the first approach, only squares in which a pond is located in the square’s center are classified as “pond”. In the second approach, all squares that contain ponds anywhere are classified as “pond”. Overall, the first approach can be expected to underestimate the total pond area while the second approach is more likely to overestimate. Thus, this analysis uses both approaches, determines flood exposure for both scenarios, and then averages the results.

> 7 Erosion data is available between 1990 and 2015 for Vietnam’s northern and central shores and between 1988 and 2015 for the coastal provinces in the Mekong River delta including Ho Chi Minh City and Ba Ria-Vung Tau province

32
ception of fairness of the tax system. In addition, the new information generated through rms' self reports and third-party reports give the government a broader view of the economy and hence a better basis for policy design.

# 5 Conclusion

This paper has argued that non-ling among tax registered rms constitutes an important and under-researched compliance gap in low income countries, that can be addressed cost-eectively. In Costa Rica, approximately 25% of tax registered rms do not le their income tax declaration in a given year, and this share is similar in other countries in the Latin America region. We evaluate a nation-wide communication campaign in which the tax authority in Costa Rica requested non-ling rms by email to le their income tax declaration. The emails featured strong but credible deterrence messages, integrated behavioral insights and leveraged third-party reports about taxpayers' business activities. We nd that the emails tripled the ling rate and doubled the payment rate among previous non-lerstreatment eects that are substantially larger than those found in much of the existing literature, and that further increase when emails specically mention examples of third-party reported sales. The return on an email was US$ 19 for rms covered by third-party information, but only US$ .39 for rms not covered by third-party information.

We extend the literature on communication interventions to reduce compliance gaps by considering a large variety of outcomes, all measured through rm-level administrative tax records. We show that the emails generated no negative spillovers on sales tax compliance. They slightly increased the deregistration rate, but they also increased the likelihood of ling third-party reports about clients or suppliers, and income tax ling in the year prior to and following the year of the intervention. This nding of a persistent treatment eect, which applies to income tax ling and payment and the ling of third-party reports, suggests that the intervention permanently raised rms' perceived enforcement probability and hence their compliance level.

Although the intervention increased total tax revenue by less than a fraction of a percent, the intervention was highly cost-eective and can thus be seen as a simple and sustainable way to widen the tax net. It may also generate positive compliance spillovers in the future, through the increased availability of third-party reports on rms' business activities. Whether the tax authority should allocate human resources to this intervention, or to audits, desk audits or follow-up on late-payers 29
# Acronyms

|CBET|Competency Based Model|
|---|---|
|CECATI|Non-professional, Elementary Vocational Training|
|CENEVAL|Centro Nacional de Evaluaci6n|
|CONALEP|Colegio Nacional de Educaci6n Profesional Tecnica|
|CONOCER|Council for Standardization and Certification of Labor Competencies|
|COSNET|Council of the National System of Technological Education|
|DGETI|Technical-professional schools|
|EAP|Economically Active Population|
|ENE|National Employment Survey|
|ENECE|National Employment, Training, and Salary Survey|
|ENEU|National Urban Employment Survey|
|NAFTA|North American Free Trade Agreement|
|OECD|Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development|
|PMETyC|Education Modernization Project|
|SEIT|Under Ministry for Technological Education and Research|
|SEP|Ministry of Public Education|
|SESIC|Under Ministry for Tertiary Education and Scientific Research|
|STPS|Ministry of Labor|
papers in this literature include Nickell (1996), Blundell et al. (1999), Griffith et al. (2004), Aghion et al. (1999), which show that competition affects innovation. Other papers, such as Lederman (2009), argue that the investment climate matters as a determinant of R&D effort. Another group of papers, including Aghion et al. (1997) and Aghion and Howitt (1992), shows that credit constraints affect the cyclicality of R&D investments, and the degree of financial development affects the introduction of new products, both for incumbent and new firms. Thus, vector **Z** _czt_ includes variables such as a Herfindhal index of sales, the percentage of firms that have difficulties to access financing, the percentage of firms that report difficulties in obtaining business licenses, the percentage of firms that worry about anti-competitive practices, the percentage of firms with foreign ownership, the percentage of firms with managers as the largest shareholders, the percentage of exporter firms, intellectual property right protection of trade partners, GDP per capita of trade partners, international backward linkages, and international forward linkages. The models are thus heavily parameterized, because the cross-sectional data do not allow us to control for firm fixed effects, and thus it is safe to err on the side of caution.

Finally, an important feature of this empirical strategy is that innovation in one dimension can affect the probability of innovation in the other; a firm’s introduction of a new product variety can affect its propensity to upgrade existing products, and vice versa.

# **5 Data**

The data on patents were taken from United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) yearly statistics and cover the period 1963 to 2004. The R&D expenditure data were taken from Lederman and Saenz (2005) and updated with UNESCO data from its web site. The human capital related variables were taken from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. We compute the stock of patents using the perpetual inventory method. The depreciation rate is assumed to be equal to 15%, which implies that the 90% of each patent is extinguished at the end of a 15-year period. Spillover variables for the stock of patents are computed considering different levels of aggregation over the world total stock or expenditure. Since the patent counts by country and year come from the USPTO, it is worthwhile to control for exports to the United States. This variable can be interpreted as a proxy for a country’s inventors to file patent applications with the USPTO. That is, the higher are the merchandise sales in the U.S. market, the stronger is the incentive to submit patent applications to the USPTO. As discussed in the results section 6.1, some coefficient estimates do appear to be sensitive to the inclusion of this variable. The data for exports to the U.S. come from the International Monetary Fund’s _Direction of Trade Statistics_ .

Table 2 shows the R&D effort across selected economies and regions. The most noticeable characteristic of the patterns of R&D is the significant difference between developed and develop13