rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
An Assessment Of Reform Options For The Public Service Pension Fund In Uganda In the short run, the cost to the government of the reformed system will slightly exceed the projected costs under a no-reform scenario. The decline in pension payments is not significant enough to offset the contribution payments to the provident fund which under the Reform I.1 variant will have to be paid for all active members. In the medium term, saving on the decreasing payments of the accrued rights more than compensates for the contribution payments that increase in line with the increasing wage bill. In the long run, after the accrued right have been practically paid out in full, government expenditure changes in line with the covered wage bill stabilizing at around 1.1% of GDP. The projected time path of the two components of government expenditure after the reform is plotted in Figure 20 and Figure 21.

**Figure 20: Payment of accrued rights and contributions for civil servants – Reform I.1A (% of GDP)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 0.7%<br>0.6%<br>0.5%<br>0.4%<br>0.3%<br>0.2%<br>0.1%<br>0.0%<br>2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067 2072<br>Year<br>accrue rights contributions<br>Accrued rights (% GDP)<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Source** : WB calculations based on PROST

- 53 -
them multiple times during this time period (Figure 7). This likely underestimates the true likelihood of turning to repeated KUR loans, as borrowers who received loans for the first time toward the end of the study period would not have time to repay the first loan and take another loan during the study period.<sup>22</sup> Indeed, almost all borrowers who received KUR for the first time in 2015 had received multiple KUR loans during the 5-year study period (Figure 8). Regulations in effect at the time of the survey would allow a firm to continuously fund business using subsidized KUR loans for up to 48 years, assuming average loan sizes and repayment according to the loan periods allowed in the regulations.<sup>23</sup> Figure 6: Three percent of KUR borrowers graduate to commercial lending **Do Firms Who Receive KUR Graduate to Other Types of Loans?** <!-- Start of picture text --> 81.5 %<br>80%<br>60%<br>40%<br>20%<br>8.5% 6.5% 2.9% 0.5% 10.0%<br>0%<br>Only had Only had Graduated Graduated Graduated Graduated<br>KUR micro KUR small micro KUR micro KUR small KUR (any type)<br>to small KUR to non-KUR to non-KUR<br>loans loans<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Author calculations using survey of KUR borrowers Figure 7: Approximately half of KUR borrowers have received multiple KUR loans **Number of KUR loans borrowers received** <!-- Start of picture text --> 60%<br>50.8%<br>50%<br>40%<br>30.7%<br>30%<br>20%<br>12.5 %<br>10%<br>6.0 %<br>0%<br>1 2 3 4 or more<br>Source: Author calculations using survey of KUR borrowers<br><!-- End of picture text --> 22 The most common type of KUR loan, a micro KUR loan for working capital, can have a tenor of up to 3 years.

23 According to Regulation 8 of 2019, micro KUR loans in the non-production sector were limited to a lifetime maximum of 200 million IDR and small KUR loans were subject to a lifetime maximum of 500 million IDR. With an average micro KUR loan size of 18.5 million IDR and an average small KUR loan of 74.6 million IDR, a firm in the non-production sector could receive an average-sized KUR loan 16 times – 10 micro KUR loans and 6 small KUR loans. The calculations assume the maximum term allowed for working capital loans—the most common use of KUR loans—which is 3 years.

**17**
Policy Research Working Paper 6134

# **Abstract**

This study investigates the choice of occupational focus versus diversification between household members in rural Bangladesh as an autonomous and proactive adaptation strategy against ex ante local rainfall variability risks. The analysis combines nationally representative household level survey data with historical climate variability information at the Upazila level. The authors note that flood prone Upazilas may face reduced risks from local rainfall variability as compared with nonflood prone Upazilas. They find that two members of the same household are less likely to be self-employed in agriculture if they live in an area with high local rainfall variability. However, the occupational diversification strategy comes at a cost to households in terms of consumption welfare. The paper considers the effects of three policy actions, providing access to credit, safety net, and market. Access to market appears to be more effective in reducing the likelihood of costly within-household occupational diversification as an ex ante climate riskreducing strategy as compared with access to credit and safety net.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Equity Unit, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http:// econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at eskoufias@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
developed by Dang and Lanjouw (2013), results in these figures suggest that the method proposed 2 2NP in this paper performs well in predicting household welfare changes (i.e., ∆yi<sup>2</sup> = yi2 −ŷi1 ) apart from predicting joint probabilities of moving in and out of poverty.

Figures 5 through 7 show that the method works well for predicting income mobility for several subgroups of the population. However, it is crucial to understand whether “householdlevel” transitions predicted from the synthetic panel methodology are similar to transitions observed in the actual panel data.<sup>10</sup> Table 5 presents the proportion of households based on the actual mobility from true panels and the proportion of households based on predicted mobility based on synthetic panels. Results indicate that methodology works well for predicting household level mobility; most of the estimates are in the main diagonal. However, caution should be taken when predicting “household-level” mobility, since about 20 percent of the individuals are not classified correctly.

# _4.4. Validation in a different context_

This section validates in other contexts by using the same panel datasets for Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru as the one introduced by Cruces et al. (2015). Figure 8 shows the conditional probability of poverty transition for the three countries and for different values of γ when implementing their third specification.<sup>11</sup> The figure presents the point estimate and 95 percent confidence intervals for the actual panel mobility together with the point estimates from using synthetic panels in the three countries.

With few exceptions, most of the point estimates using γ = 0.5 are close to the actual estimates of poverty mobility and lie within the 95 percent confidence intervals. For instance, actual panel data shows that between 5 and 12 percent of the initial non-poor in 2001 in Nicaragua fell into poverty in 2005 (based on the 95 percent confidence interval), while according to the synthetic panel technique about 9 percent of the original non-poor population fell into poverty between both years. Chile performs the least well. The conditional upward mobility estimate lies about 8 percentage points outside the 95 percent confidence interval of the actual upward mobility in this country—though, the estimation of the conditional probability of falling into poverty lies

> 10 This validation has not been done by Cruces et al. (2015)  and Dang et al. (2013, 2014).

> 11 Specification 3 in Cruces et al. (2015) includes: (i) household head age, age squared, gender, years of education, and ethnicity; (ii) geographical controls and regional fixed effects; and (iii) the interaction between variables in (i) and (ii).

12
measured by access to water transportation. Christensen and McCord (2016) study geographic determinants of urbanization in China and find heterogeneous effects. Our contribution to this literature is to directly document the effect of transportation infrastructure investments on agricultural and urban land use based on high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed data on a national road expansion program.

The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides background information on RSDP and growth in Ethiopia. Section 3 presents the data. Section 4 discusses the empirical strategy. Section 5 presents the results, and Section 6 concludes.

# **2 Background**

## **2.1 The Road Sector Development Program**

As of the late 1990s, the state of Ethiopia’s road network was poor. Most areas in the country were not connected to economic centers, which isolated areas from markets and social services, and roads that existed were deteriorating. The Government of Ethiopia recognized that the poor state of the network impeded economic growth; consequently, it launched the RSDP in 1997.

This program has gone through four phases and is currently in its fifth phase. The different phases had different objectives: RSDP I (1997–2002) focused mainly on rehabilitating and upgrading federal-level trunk roads; RSDP II (2002–2007) and III (2007-2010) expanded the program’s focus to upgrading and building new link and regional roads; RSDP IV (2010–2015) introduced the Universal Rural Road Access Plan (URRAP), shifting the program’s focus to rural and community roads while maintaining investment at other levels; and RSDP V (2015–present) shifted focus back to the federal level, prioritizing construction, upgrading, and heavy maintenance of trunk and link roads (Ethiopian Roads Authority, 2015a) Phases I–III saw investments in 32,693km of roads combined, Phase IV saw investments in 85,860km of roads, and the first year of Phase V saw 9,917km of roads improved. Figure 1a shows improvements in the road network over time; the bulk of road improvements were on 20km/h URRAP roads during Phase IV.

Overall, in the first 19 years of RSDP (1997–2016), 17.4 billion USD was invested across 128,470km of roads (Ethiopian Roads Authority, 2015a). The road development was categorized across federal roads (74.7% of total expenditure), regional roads (12.1%), Woreda/community roads (12.9%), and urban roads (0.3%). Construction of new federal and regional roads comprised 40.8% of total expenditure. During this time, the road network grew 326%—increasing from 26,550km in 1997 to 113,066km in 2016. Of the roads constructed, 41.4% were built during RSDP IV, between 2010 and 2015 (Ethiopian Roads Authority, 2015a). Overall, the program has led to notable improvements in road access. The Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA) 6
|Yemen Public Finance Modernization Project<br>Franck Bessette|
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|Yemen Public Finance Modernization Project<br>Franck Bessette|
|Yemen Public Finance Modernization Project<br>Franck Bessette|
|Yemen Public Finance Modernization Project<br>Franck Bessette|
|Yemen Public Finance Modernization Project<br>Franck Bessette|
|Yemen Public Finance Modernization Project<br>Franck Bessette|
|Yemen Public Finance Modernization Project<br>Franck Bessette|
|Yemen Public Finance Modernization Project<br>Franck Bessette|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Urban Water and Sanitation Project<br>Taibou Adamou Maiga|
|Second PovertyReduction Support Credit(PRSC 2)<br>Julio E. Revilla|
|Second PovertyReduction Support Credit(PRSC 2)<br>Julio E. Revilla|
|TFSCB Grant - Statistical Development for the OECS<br>Federica Marzo|
|TFSCB Grant - Statistical Development for the OECS<br>Federica Marzo|
|TFSCB Grant - Statistical Development for the OECS<br>Federica Marzo|
|TFSCB Grant - Statistical Development for the OECS<br>Federica Marzo|
|Prevention and Management of Influenza Type Illness and StrengtheVanina Camporeale|
|Prevention and Management of Influenza Type Illness and StrengtheVanina Camporeale|
|Prevention and Management of Influenza Type Illness and StrengtheVanina Camporeale|
|Prevention and Management of Influenza Type Illness and StrengtheVanina Camporeale|
|Prevention and Management of Influenza Type Illness and StrengtheVanina Camporeale|
|Prevention and Management of Influenza Type Illness and StrengtheVanina Camporeale|
|Prevention and Management of Influenza Type Illness and StrengtheVanina Camporeale|
|DRC EstablishingCapacityfor Core Public Management<br>Boris Weber|
|DRC EstablishingCapacityfor Core Public Management<br>Boris Weber|
|DRC EstablishingCapacityfor Core Public Management<br>Boris Weber|
|DRC EstablishingCapacityfor Core Public Management<br>Boris Weber|
|DRC EstablishingCapacityfor Core Public Management<br>Boris Weber|
|DRC EstablishingCapacityfor Core Public Management<br>Boris Weber|
observation looks democratic. Nonetheless, while improvement has been made, there are concerns that developing countries have yet to make meaningful progress here.

Take intellectual property, a flagship measure in expanding trade in cultural output. Even if developing countries have asked for a break “in terms of obligations imposed on them” under the WTO’s Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), it is important to see how this measure began: “The rules in the TRIPS Agreement that promote stricter intellectual property protection were clearly a response of lobbying by Western companies that owned and developed intellectual property, such as pharmaceutical, entertainment, and software companies.”<sup>9</sup> In a way, this has implications on internal and external trade in creative output by developing countries. In places with a history of customary law and shared tangible and intangible assets, the TRIPS Agreement is almost irrelevant.<sup>10</sup> This episode shows that how trade in creative goods and services can be influenced to contribute to human development requires policies tailored for developing countries’ needs. Moreover, implications of such trade on creative women also require broader consideration. These approaches are not new. But much more needs to be done.

This discussion seeks to address the constraints and opportunities in what may be called 'creative trade.' It examines how trade in creative work can advance human development, even if the linkages are neither automatic nor guaranteed. It is based on sources ranging from trade literature to interviews, with a caveat that while some data and research consulted are recent, some are not.

_The Organization of the Paper_ The next section discusses the categories of trade in the creative sector. It proceeds to provide basic concepts of how trade in creative work can enhance human development. This is followed by a discussion of such barriers as the gender divide, the invisibility of creative trade, the delicate debate of culture and commerce, and the challenge of intellectual property protection. A discussion on the WTO’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) comes next. This is followed by recommendations. They include how to expand opportunities for women in creative trade, the development of a cultural trade index, and a case study on the Republic of Korea’s Copyright Commission. A quick remark on other polices, including the development of cultural trade agreements ends the discussion.

***

> 9 Simon Lester et al., _World Trade Law,_ 42.

> 10 J. Michael Finger, interview by author, tape recording, Somerville, MA, November 28, 2011. See also Patrick Kabanda, “The Arts, Africa and Economic Development: The Problem of Intellectual Property Rights,” _Law, Social Justice and Global Development Journal_ Issue 2016 (1) (May 1, 2016) Part 2, accessed May 17, 2016, <u>http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/law/elj/lgd/2016-1/patrick_finalfinal.pdf.</u>

4
Figure 3: Relative Rate of Assistance for Sudan and Neighboring Countries 1990–2010 <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.6<br>0.4<br>0.2<br>0<br>1990 1995 2000 2005 2010<br>-0.2<br>-0.4<br>-0.6<br>-0.8<br>Sudan Kenya Ethiopia Egypt<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Kym and Signe 2013.

A sharp increase in agricultural exports since the independence of South Sudan has been driven largely by an increase in the sale of sesame and sugar (Figure 4a). Though these are only a share of the value of the lost oil exports, the rapid increase in agricultural output demonstrates Sudan’s tremendous agricultural productive capacity. These developments are also indicative of agriculture’s ability to serve as a vital source of foreign exchange (Figure 4b) and to provide raw materials to the country’s nascent food industry (World Bank 2018). More recent reports (FAO 2019) suggest that Sudan has been able to further capture the international market for sesame seeds, due to favorable weather, and reduced exports from other major producers.

This increased prominence of agriculture in the Sudanese economy has been interpreted as evidence of a reverse ‘Dutch Disease’. This term describes the apparent causal relationship between the sudden increase in the energy sector and the decline in other sectors of the economy, such as agriculture and manufacturing. Sudan has experienced a reversal of this phenomenon due to the sudden decline in oil production. How Sudan copes with this change in economic fortunes will be vital in ensuring the prosperity of the Sudanese economy and its people, especially the most economically vulnerable, such as the rural poor. Agriculture has an important role to play in this economic transition. This report shows that investing in agriculturally productive Sudanese households can lead to significant improvement in their welfare and the prosperity of the nation.

4
Global Investment Costs for Coastal Defense through the 21st Century Report to the World Bank 30

# **7 References**

Bijlsma, L., Ehler, C.N., Klein, R.J.T., Kulshrestha, S.M., Mclean, R.F., Mimura, N., Nicholls, R.J., Nurse, L.A., Perez Nieto, H., Stakhiv, E.Z. Turner, R.K. & Warrick, R.A. (1996) Coastal Zones and Small Islands. In: Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C. & Moss, R.H. (eds.), Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, (The Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group II), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp.289-324.

Brown, S. and Nicholls, R.J. (2015) Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: the case of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Science of The Total Environment, 527-528, 362-374 doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.124 Church, J. A., P.U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J.M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M.A. Merrifield, G.A. Milne, R.S. Nerem, P.D. Nunn, A.J. Payne, W.T. Pfeffer, Stammer, D. & A.S. Unnikrishnan (2013) Sea Level Change. In: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-k., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. & Midgley, P. M. (eds.) Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

CIESIN, IFPRI, the World Bank & CIAT (2011) Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMP v1): Population Density Grid. Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University, New York, USA.

Diaz, D.B. (2016) Estimating global damages from sea level rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM) Climatic Change, 137: 143-156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584016-1675-4 Dronkers, J., Gilbert,J.T.E., Butler, L.W., Carey, J.J., Campbell, J., James, E., McKenzie, C. , Misdorp, R., Quin, N., Ries, K.L., Schroder, P.C., Spradley, J.R. , Titus, J.G., Vallianos, L., von Dadelszen, J. (1990) Strategies for adaptation to sea level rise. Report of the IPCC Coastal Zone Management Subgroup: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva).

Ericson J.P., Vörösmarty C.J., Dingman S.L., Ward L.G., Meybeck M. (2006) Effective sea-level rise and deltas: Causes of change and human dimension implications. Global Planet. Change, 50: 63–82.

Fankhauser, S. (1995) Protection versus Retreat: The Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise. Environment and Planning A, 27, 299-319 https://doi.org/10.1068/a270299 Gilbert, S. and Horner R. (1984) The Thames Barrier, Telford, London ISBN 0-7277-0249-1 Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R.J., Corfee-Morlot, J. (2013) Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Clim. Change 3, 802–806.