could have realized even greater benefits by liberalizing import of maize and other outputs, which would cut farm production as well as benefits from input reforms. However, taxes and trade controls also affect non-agricultural goods, so that it is not a simple thing to hypothesize benefits from output trade liberalization in a distortion-free environment. Allowing tariff-free maize imports, for example, would create a distortion against maize, since the currency is generally overvalued, and may even increase overall distortions in the economy, reducing economic efficieny. Hence, we calculate economic benefits from input deregulation based on actual production, without making any counterfactual assumptions about what might happen with other hypothetical reforms to end all trade distortions.

# **4.2.1** Maize

With FAO collaboration, government began maize research in the 1950s. After years of work, government by 1980 had released a number of open-pollinated varieties (OPVs) and some hybrids, but none gained popularity with farmers. As part of 1980s reforms, MARA invited foreign companies to send hybrids for testing. From 150 varieties submitted, MARA scientists selected 20 for tests around the country. In 1982 trials, hybrids yielded over 9 t/ha, much more than national average yields of 2.1 t/ha, and more also than provincial average yields of 2.7 t/ha for Adana and 2.9 t/ha for Bursa, two provinces with irrigated maize and relatively high yields.

Based on these trials, government imported several thousand tons of hybrid maize seed and sold it over several years in the mid-1980s. After about 1986, government stopped selling and left the market to private companies. Farmers readily adopted foreign maize hybrids: CIMMYT estimates that by 1985 one third of maize area was planted to new foreign hybrids, after which expansion of hybrid maize area slowed. Figures for seed production and trade support these estimates. Hybrids have replaced open-pollinated varieties on irrigated land in Cukurova near the Mediterranean, along the Aegean, and in Marmara. In the north along the Black Sea, where maize is planted in small upland plots, farmers continue to grow OPVs.

With a simple yield response function, we estimate the impact of post-reform hybrids on yields. Since Turkey is a small producer and regularly imports maize, we assume that changes in maize productivity and production have no impact on price. With some assumptions about input costs, we then calculate the impact of higher yields on farmer net incomes.

We model maize yields in tons per hectare as a function of hybrids, fertilizer, irrigation, and rainfall. Hybrid use is shown as percent of maize area sown to private hybrids, all of which came in after and because of reform; we do not include pre-reform public hybrids, which covered only I percent of maize area in 1992 (CIMMYT 1994). We also include a trend variable to capture impact of transport improvements, extension, and other activities which could increase yields. Annual fertilizer use on maize is calculated from 1980 share of fertilizer applied to maize times annual total fertilizer use (FAO reports that share of fertilizer going to maize drops slightly from 1980 to 1988; we use 1980s share throughout; see Ange 1994, p 10). Maize irrigated area is not available, so percent of total area under irrigation is used. For rainfall, we use national annual rainfall.

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