and marital status that we expect to change over time.<sup>15</sup> Thus, we estimate OLS regressions of the form: where _Yijm_ denotes the risk aversion index of respondent _i_ surveyed by enumerator _j_ in month _m_ , _Posti_ is an indicator variable equal to one if respondent _i_ was surveyed after the post-election crisis, _ηj_ is an enumerator fixed effect, _λm_ is a month (of the year) fixed effect, and _εijm_ is a conditionally mean-zero error term. We also report OLS specifications that replace the month fixed effects with separate linear time trends for the pre- and post- crisis periods.<sup>16</sup> As a robustness check, we also take a nonlinear approach, and report analogous ordered logit specifications which account for the ordered nature of our outcome variable, the number of times a respondent chose the riskiest, highest expected value lottery.

We also report complementary instrumental variables estimates of the impact of the postelection crisis on individual risk preferences, exploiting the fact that KLPS2 respondents were randomly assigned to one of two waves of surveying. Wave 1 began in August of 2007 and continued through November 2008, while Wave 2 started in November 2008 and concluded in December of 2009. As discussed above, Kenya’s post-election crisis occurred approximately halfway through the first wave of surveys: 1,180 Wave 1 surveys were completed before the crisis, and 1,289 were completed afterward. This enables us to use random assignment to Wave 2 as an instrument for being surveyed after the crisis. Within each wave, participant characteristics may be associated

> 15With the exception of age, these characteristics might also be impacted by the crisis. To address concerns about the potential for a bad controls problem, we also report specifications that omit all sociodemographic controls.

> 16While it is tempting to view our research design as analogous to a regression discontinuity approach, our natural experiment does not create a valid discontinuity. First, because the post-election crisis halted surveying for more than two months, sociodemographic characteristics such as age do jump discontinuously at the moment of the crisis. Second, because the crisis lasted months, the limit-based notion of regression discontinuity is not directly applicable to this setting; a discontinuity would involve choosing a single point in time during the crisis, and at any such point, data from this survey would not be immediately adjacent on both sides. Third, there is some evidence that neither the onset nor the conclusion of the crisis were, in fact, instantaneous and completely unexpected. Though opposition candidate Raila Odinga held a convincing lead in opinion polls several months before the election, incumbent Mwai Kibabki caught up with Odinga in the month prior to the polling date, potentially raising fears that one of the candidates might try to manipulate a close vote. The official report Commission of Inquiry also documents several minor clashes in Rift Valley in late November and early December, most of which appeared be connected to attempts by political candidates to rally support by playing off of underlying ethnic tensions and disagreements over land ownership (Waki 2008). There was also a period of uncertainty in the wake of the crisis, between February 28, 2008, when the power-sharing agreement was signed, and April 12 when — after sometimes tense negotiations between the two political parties — Raila Odinga was sworn in as Prime Minister and the new coalition government officially took power.

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