cyclone wind maps for six return periods (2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100-years), which were created by fitting an extreme value distribution to modeled wind speeds per grid (Steptoe and Economou, 2021). Examples of the cyclone maps are shown in Figure D2. Future wind speed maps are derived by adding an 8% increase in the maximum wind speed to the return period maps, making them consistent with the coastal flood scenario.

# **_3.2.2 Exposure, vulnerability and risk_**

The exposed assets and land-use we include in our analysis are housing, roads, educational facilities, health facilities, hospitals, electricity substations, wells, latrines and agricultural land. Commercial and industrial land-use are not considered in this study, given the lack of data. However, evidence from Cyclone Sidr (2007) suggests that damages to commercial and industrial assets only contributed 3% to the total disaster damages and are thus small.

The location and type of housing (e _.g.,_ jhupris, kutcha, semi-pucca, pucca) per household are taken from SHSD derived for the coastal zone of Bangladesh. For critical infrastructure assets (roads, schools, health facilities, hospitals, electricity substations), we collected various geospatial layers of the different asset types, with an overview of the data sources included in Table D1. For tube wells and latrines, we do not have asset data on the location of wells and latrines. However, we do know the number households that are dependent on tube wells and pit latrines using the SHSD. Hence, we use the exposure of those households that use tube wells and pit latrines as an indicator of the location of assets. The rationale for this is that pit latrines are commonly located on the household premises at a distance of 10 meters or less from the house (personal communication DPHE, 2022), while tube wells are generally co-located with housing within a relatively small radius ( _e.g.,_ tube wells serve a surface area of an around 150meter radius according to the Bangladesh National Strategy for Water Supply and Sanitation). While pit latrines often serve a single household, tube wells serve on average ten households (personal communication DPHE, 2022).

To model damages, both vulnerability curves (per hazard) and reconstruction costs are required. In Tables D2 and D3, we present an overview of the vulnerability curves and reconstruction costs per asset type, which were obtained from various reports, personal communication with responsible government agencies, and from the literature.

For agricultural land, we look at spatial crop maps derived from satellite data (Singha et al., 2019), which includes the location of agricultural fields used for rice production in the different cropping seasons (Aman, Boro, Aus). We merge rice yield per hectare and rice price per district from the 2019 Agricultural Production report to create a map of crop value exposed. We use a district-specific correction factor such that the agricultural land per district corresponds with the amount of rice produced ( _e.g.,_ to take into consideration that not all agricultural land is used for cultivation). We ignore the timing of the cyclone events with respect to the cropping season. In general, cyclones strike during the months March – July and September – December, which corresponds to the sowing of Aus (March-May) and Aman (June-July) rice, the harvest of Boro rice (April – May), and the harvest of Aman (November – December). Hence, it is likely that the occurrence of a cyclone affects one or multiple rice crops. Without adequate information on 15