descriptive statistics. Section 5 presents our results. Section 6 discusses our findings. Section 7 concludes.

# **2 Context**

The North-east of Nigeria, comprised of the six states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe ( **Figure 1** ), has been afflicted by multiple crises including from the humanitarian and security perspectives.<sup>3</sup> Conflict and violence in the Lake Chad region (and the Sahel more generally) have had a negative impact on opportunities for development and further depleted scarce resources for livelihoods. It is a mostly rural setting, characterized by alarming levels of poverty and food insecurity (Baliki, Brück and Stojetz, 2018). An estimated 80% of the region’s total population of about 20 million rely on agriculture, fishery and livestock for their livelihoods, but the conditions for agriculture have worsened (World Bank, 2016). Among other issues, access to input factors for farming has deteriorated, including access to land and irrigation, and market prices have increased, including for transportation costs and input purchases.

Since August 2016, North-east Nigeria has been classified as a Level-3 emergency by the World Food Programme (WFP), with an estimated 9.2 million people being food insecure (WFP, 2021). For example, the situation forces many to take drastic measures such as reducing meals or portion sizes and having to buy most of their food from the market (World Bank, 2018). Violent conflict has disrupted social networks, social cohesion and value chains, and caused conflict-induced forced displacement, which puts already fragile displaced and host communities under additional stress. The broader country and region face systemic economic, social and political fragility, and volatile climate and weather conditions (World Bank, 2020; ACAPS, 2022), including recurring droughts (Okpara et al., 2016; Nagarajan et al., 2018). As a result, multiple, extreme forms of adversity have sharply increased the population’s vulnerability and risks of food insecurity, especially in rural areas.

**Conflict.** Since 2009, North-east Nigeria has been characterized by extreme violence between armed groups and against civilians, primarily due to the emergence of the Boko Haram insurgency. Boko Haram, which literally translates as “Western education is forbidden'' was founded in Borno in 2002 under the official name of “Jama’atu Ahles-Sunnah Lidda’ Awati Wal Jihad”, which literally translates as “People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad” (BBC, 2016). In 2009, Boko Haram started their violent operations, attacking police and security forces in Borno (Campbell, 2014). Violent attacks intensified and spread to neighboring states, leading to the declaration of a caliphate under Boko Haram’s control in 2014. Boko Haram then also began targeting political leaders, traditional authorities and civilians of both Christian and Muslim faiths (ACLED, 2013).

The declaration of the caliphate was counteracted by the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a coalition formed by Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Benin, fighting Boko Haram in a violent conflict. By 2015, the MNJTF forced Boko Haram to withdraw and Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari stated that Boko Haram had been ‘technically’ defeated. Fatalities associated

> 3 Our empirical analysis analyzes data collected between June and August 2018. Therefore, we primarily focus the discussion of the study context on the second half of 2018.

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