4 unemployment rate went from 3 _._ 8 to 14 _._ 4 in April 2020 and down to 6 _._ 6 by February 2021, the adjusted number increases from 3 _._ 4 to 22 _._ 7 and then declines to 9 _._ 9 a year later. This implies an average increase in non-employment over the course of the year since the pandemic of 8 _._ 4 percent. Considering that hours worked also declined, the total increase in non-employment must have been higher than 8 _._ 4 percent.

Globally, the ILO (2020, Fig. 5) reports that the peak losses in total hours worked (from unemployment, inactivity and reduced hours) across the HICs, MICs and LICs are 15 _._ 8%, 20 _._ 9% and 12 _._ 4%, respectively. However, the peak is not indicative of the impact of the shock over the entire year. Thus, we assume losses equal to the average over 2020, i.e. 8 _._ 3%, 9 _._ 5% and 6 _._ 7% respectively (ILO, 2020, Fig. 7), and 10% is a reasonable upper bound.

**Workers with Sub-College Education and the Young.** Based on the COVID-19 experience (ILO, 2020; Kugler et al., 2021), we assume that the employment shock affects mainly workers with sub-college education and the young. We assume that if the unemployment rate among adults without college education rises by a certain amount _x_ , then unemployment among college-educated adults rises by one half of that amount ( 2<sup><u>1</u></sup><sup>_x_).The factor of</sup><sup><u>1</u></sup> 2<sup>is based on comparing employment rates for workers of</sup> different skill levels, as estimated by the ILO (2020, Box 2).<sup>6</sup> The ILO finds that, globally, “the mean loss for low-skilled workers was 10.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, compared with 7.5 per cent for medium-skilled workers and 2.2 per cent for highskilled workers.” The ILO defines low-, medium- and high-skilled workers as follows: “ _Low-skill_ = elementary occupations & skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers; _Medium-skill_ = clerical support workers, service and sales workers, craft and related trades workers, plant and machine operators, and assemblers; _High-skill_ = managers, professionals and technicians, & associate professionals.” Using the I2D2 data and the same classification, we obtain the average employment share and college share of each skill group for the world. We then calculate the percentage employment loss by college status, finding 9.5% for pre-college workers and 4.8% for college workers. Thus, the loss was twice higher for the former group than for the latter group.

Regarding youth unemployment, the ILO (2020, p. 10) states: “Young workers were particularly hard hit by the crisis in 2020 across all regions and country income groups, resulting in an [global] employment loss of 8.7 per cent, as opposed to 3.7 per cent for adults (figure 8) [4.3% in total]. However, outside high-income countries, jobless young people, or those who were about to enter the labour market, did not generally move into shock-but-recovery-is-far-from-complete/, last checked 10/1/2021.

6The ILO (2020, p. 19) writes: “The uneven impact of the crisis on workers with different skill levels can be seen not only in terms of income but also when observing decreases in employment. A sample of 50 countries shows that the magnitude of job losses tended to be much larger for low-skilled workers.”