# _Catching Up on Enrollment_

The strong rise in exports over the last decade suggests that lack of skilled labor may well become the binding constraint to growth. Indeed, about 30 percent of manufacturing firms consider this as severe or very severe obstacle according to the 2004/5 Investment Climate Survey (World Bank 2005a). The argument goes as follows. With economic development and globalization, Thailand’s comparative advantage, as that of other middle income countries, is shifting up the skill ladder towards more skill-intensive products. This trend is expected to accelerate over time, increasing demand for skilled workers. Unless the supply of skills is improved, it is likely to fall short of what is needed to sustain a more skill-intensive growth path. However, data on Thailand’s manufacturing sector suggested that in spite of the sharp rise in exports since the mid1990s, the contribution of heavy and high-skill labor-intensive industries is still below the levels of prior to the Asian crisis (Figure 7.C). This section will look at education and wages for evidence on increasing returns to skills.

Thailand’s primary education rate was high already in 1960s, and access to education increased continuously over the last 20 years.<sup>16</sup> Figure 21.A shows that attendance to educational institutions was substantially higher in 2002 than in 1986 across all age groups. While less than half of the 15 year-old were in school in 1986, it is more than four in five in 2002. Higher school attendance came together with more students reaching higher education levels (Figure 21.B). Among the 6 to 25 year-old, the share attending lower secondary or higher education levels more than doubled to around one third between 1988 and 2002.<sup>17</sup> Among the age group of the 15 to 21 year-old, one in ten attended university in 2002, compared to one in 25 in 1988, and close to one in five upper secondary education, compared to one in 16 in 1988 (Figure 21.C).

How does Thailand compare internationally in terms of access to education? At the primary level, there is almost universal access, similar to other East Asian countries (Figure 21.D). By contrast, gross secondary enrolment lacked behind until the late 1980s. It increased strongly during the 1990s, and reached levels similar to Malaysia by 2001 (Figure 21.E). Tertiary enrolment began increasing from the mid-1990s onwards, reflecting partially the impact of higher secondary enrolment (Figure 21.F). By 2001, Thailand was on track to closing the gap to the Philippines.

> 16 Universal primary education was introduced in 1932, in the aftermath of the coup d’etat, in order to promote nationalism and support for the new regime.  The government also wanted to equip ethnic Thais to compete with the Chinese (Christensen et at 1993).  Mandatory schooling was extended to six years (upper primary) in 1978 and to nine year (lower secondary) in 1999.

> 17 Vocational education covers lower, upper, and higher education. University education includes teacher training.  The education questions in the SES questionnaire changed in 2002, making a comparison of secondary, vocational and university enrolment between 2000 and 2002 problematic.

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