|**Ta**<br>Sample of Countries|**ble 8: Het**<br>(1)<br>**Full**|**erogeneity i**<br>(2)<br>**IDA**|**n Estimated**<br>(3)<br>**Disb/G>10%**|**Multipliers**<br>(4)<br>**Full**|<br>(5)<br>**IDA**|(6)<br>**Disb/G>10%**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**_Panel A: State of Business Cycle_**<br>_OLS Estimate_||**_Recession_**|||**_Boom_**||
|Change in Government Spending|0.195***|0.186***|0.204***|0.101***|0.0611|0.0796**|
||(0.0365)|(0.0457)|(0.0456)|(0.0326)|(0.0432)|(0.0384)|
|_2SLS Estimate_|||||||
|Change in Government Spending|0.660*|0.614*|0.807**|0.146|0.0398|0.00873|
||(0.353)|(0.328)|(0.383)|(0.265)|(0.171)|(0.215)|
|_First-Stage F-Statistic_|7.40|7.99|8.01|8.02|18.64|14.76|
|_Number of Observations_|1312|701|919|1492|807|1031|
|**_Panel B: Trade Openness_**||**_Closed_**|||**_Open_**||
|_OLS Estimate_|||||||
|Change in Government Spending|0.337***|0.274***|0.319***|0.281***|0.236***|0.243***|
||(0.0617)|(0.0723)|(0.0745)|(0.0465)|(0.0645)|(0.0526)|
|_2SLS Estimate_|||||||
|Change in Government Spending|0.634**|0.571*|0.712**|0.116|0.180|0.150|
||(0.295)|(0.284)|(0.353)|(0.491)|(0.328)|(0.320)|
|_First-Stage F-Statistic_|10.23|13.42|8.71|4.42|13.75|10.95|
|_Number of Observations_|1398|750|966|1406|758|984|
|**_Panel C: Exchange Rate Regime_**<br>_OLS Estimate_||**_Flexible_**|||**_Fixed_**||
|Change in Government Spending<br>_2SLS Estimate_|0.320***<br>(0.0513)|0.301***<br>(0.0649)|0.308***<br>(0.0632)|0.269***<br>(0.0487)|0.209***<br>(0.0656)|0.244***<br>(0.0498)|
|Change in Government Spending|0.387|0.482**|0.320|0.306|0.188|0.450|
||(0.304)|(0.199)|(0.208)|(0.371)|(0.280)|(0.342)|
|_First-Stage F-Statistic_|9.55|25.54|21.88|6.03|11.46|7.25|
|_Number of Observations_|1009|504|592|1795|1004|1358|
|**_Panel D: Aid Dependence_**||**_Low_**|||**_High_**||
|_OLS Estimate_|||||||
|Change in Government Spending<br>_2SLS Estimate_|0.349***<br>(0.0603)|0.321***<br>(0.0818)|0.393***<br>(0.0716)|0.265***<br>(0.0388)|0.209***<br>(0.0538)|0.204***<br>(0.0433)|
|<br>Change in Government Spending|-0.146|0.587*|0.275|0.547**|0.430*|0.438**|
||(0.951)|(0.343)|(0.750)|(0.224)|(0.255)|(0.173)|
|_First-Stage F-Statistic_|0.82|8.21|1.26|13.22|16.22|22.92|
|_Number of Observations_|1373|747|970|1431|761|980|
|*** (**) (*) denotes significance at t<br>the country level. All regressions ar<br>effects. Changes in GDP, governme<br>2SLS estimates of Equation (1) for va<br>below/above the country-decade av<br>average trade/GDP being below/ab<br>fixed exchange rates, defined as bel<br>less and more aid dependent countr<br>sample median. The three country<br>the sample of countries where disb<br>spending over the sample period.|he 1 (5) (10) p<br>e estimated u<br>nt spending, a<br>rious sample<br>erage. Panel<br>ove the corres<br>ow/above 2 i<br>ies, defined a<br>samples corre<br>ursements on|ercent level. H<br>sing pooled cou<br>nd disburseme<br>splits. Panel A<br>B distinguishes<br>ponding sampl<br>n the Ilzetzki, R<br>s the decade-a<br>spond to the fu<br>loans from offi|eteroskedasticity<br>ntry-year data a<br>nts are all scaled<br>distinguishes rec<br>countries less an<br>e median. Panel<br>einhart and Rogo<br>verage ODA to GD<br>ll sample of coun<br>cial creditors ave|-consistent st<br>nd include a fu<br>by lagged GDP<br>essions from b<br>d more open<br>C distinguishe<br>ff (2008) classi<br>P ratio below<br>tries, the sam<br>rage at least 10|andard errors a<br>ll set of countr<br>. All four pane<br>ooms, defined<br>to trade, define<br>s countries wit<br>fication. Panel<br>/above the corr<br>ple of IDA-eligi<br>percent of gov|re clustered at<br>y and year fixed<br>ls report OLS and<br>as growth<br>d as the decade-<br>h flexible and<br>D distinguishes<br>esponding<br>ble countries, and<br>ernment|