rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
ventional point estimate and conventional standard error, the bias-corrected point estimate and conventional standard error, and the bias-corrected point estimate and the robust biascorrected standard error. Unless otherwise noted, we report ‘Conventional RD’ estimates in the text because they remain the default estimators in applied microeconomics.

In addition to displaying point estimates and standard errors in table format, we visually reproduce the primary regression results using binned sample means and local linear conditional mean functions to allow the reader to assess the variation of the dependent variable around the gross tonnage threshold. We specify three non-default options so that the difference in the intercepts between the two local linear conditional mean functions corresponds exactly to the conventional regression discontinuity point estimate. Those non-default options are: triangular kernel, local linear specification for the running variable, and the same optimal bandwidth from the corresponding regression table and column. Unless otherwise noted, we use default options in all other instances. The most important of these default options calculates the number of bins and the bin endpoints with the mimicking variance evenly-spaced method using spacings estimators (Calonico et al., 2015).

If the regulator chose subsidy thresholds to award more subsidy to the vessels they expected would fish most, then our estimates of the effect of fuel subsidies on fishing are upward biased. We explore the likelihood of this scenario with pre-period fishing data. Between 2006 and 2014, fuel subsidies for distant water vessels were linear in engine power and independent of gross tonnage (Department of Industrial Policy and Regulation, Ministry of Agriculture, 2021). GFW fishing data begins in 2012. As a placebo test, we estimate Equation 2 on log monthly fishing hours between 2012 and 2014 by “soon-to-be binding” vessels—those with gear, gross tonnage, and engine power such that their engine power became binding under the 2016-2020 fuel subsidy policy. We exclude 2015 data from this test because some firms may have been aware of the fuel subsidies policy that was applied to calculate 2015 subsidies, even though the policy was not officially announced until 2016 (Ministry of Agriculture, 2016). Pre-period fishing hours by soon-to-be binding vessels are slightly _lower_ among vessels who will be just above 2016-2020 fuel subsidy thresholds (Figure A2). This result provides evidence against the hypothesis that more-subsidized vessels would have fished more than less-subsidized vessels even in the absence of fuel subsidies.

17
Table 1b. Average individual statistics for children under three years old in 2008 by household migration status

||Overall<br>average|Migrant<br>average|Non-migrant<br>average|Difference<br>(migrant -<br>non-migrant)|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Age in months|17.89|17.08|18.14|-1.06|
||(10.15)|(9.99)|(10.20)|(0.84)|
|Male = 1|0.51|0.50|0.52|-0.02|
||(0.50)|(0.50)|(0.50)|(0.05)|
|HAZ|-2.17|-1.59|-2.35|0.76 ***|
||(1.50)|(1.55)|(1.44)|(0.13)|
|Stunted (HAZ < -2) = 1|0.58|0.43|0.63|-0.20 ***|
||(0.49)|(0.50)|(0.48)|(0.05)|
|WAZ|-1.08|-0.71|-1.19|0.49 ***|
||(1.11)|(1.10)|(1.09)|(0.11)|
|Underweight (WAZ <-2) = 1|0.19|0.13|0.22|-0.09 ***|
||(0.40)|(0.34)|(0.41)|(0.03)|
|WHZ|0.16|0.24|0.14|0.10|
||(1.24)|(1.19)|(1.25)|(0.12)|
|Wasted (WHZ < -2)|0.04|0.04|0.04|0.00|
||(0.20)|(0.20)|(0.20)|(0.02)|
|Father completed primary school = 1|0.12|0.15|0.12|0.03|
||(0.33)|(0.35)|(0.32)|(0.04)|
|Mother completed primary school = 1|0.12|0.20|0.10|0.10 ***|
||(0.32)|(0.40)|(0.30)|(0.03)|
|Father is coresident = 1|0.77|0.52|0.84|-0.32 ***|
||(0.42)|(0.50)|(0.36)|(0.05)|
|N|518|123|395|518|

Notes: Sample of children under three years old in 2008. Migrant household is defined as a household with at least one migrant to the U.S. in three of the four years 2005-08. Sample size is smaller (N=514 total) for WHZ and wasted due to flagged out-of-range values. Standard deviations in parentheses under average and standard errors estimated allowing for clustering at the sample cluster level in parentheses under difference. *** indicates significantly different at p<0.01, ** at p<0.05, and * at p<0.10.
This paper uses data from the Colombian DHS for 2005, 2010, and 2015.<sup>4</sup> Surveys are representative of the female population ages 13-49 at the national, urban, and rural levels. They collect information on health outcomes and socio-economic characteristics. The most recent waves include attitudes towards gender equality, women’s role in society, GBV, and intra-household decision-making. The DHS employs two-stage sampling designs. Primary sampling units (PSUs) or clusters are sampled in the first stage, and households in the second stage. This design results in a multilevel data set. The sample consists of 37,211 households (41,344 women) in 2005, 51,447 households (53,521 women) in 2010, and 44,614 households (38,718 women) in 2015. Men were interviewed in the 2015 round, but they are not included in the analysis because of the limited set of questions on attitudes and behaviors in the questionnaire.

The surveys allow for the direct identification of displaced household members. Questions ask whether the respondent lived in one or more places in the last 5 years, the date of migration, and the reason for migrating.<sup>5</sup> Displaced households are defined as those that had at least one member who was forced to flee due to conflict. This is a reasonable assumption for Colombia, where nearly 91 percent of IDPs migrate with all household members (Ibáñez, 2008). Furthermore, to facilitate the provision of reparations and other entitlements, as the IDP status is attached to a household, it is transmitted across generations (Sarzin, 2017; Shultz et al., 2014). IDPs were oversampled in the three survey waves and they represent 7 percent of the individuals who migrated internally each survey-year.

# **_5.1. Measurement of gender norms_**

Gender norms relate to multiple spheres of life. This study focuses on norms around reproductive health, economic opportunity, mobility, violence against women, and patriarchy. The analysis of gender norms in other spheres, although important, remains beyond the scope of this paper because of data limitations. For the purposes of operationalization, the analysis combines the definition proposed by Cislaghi and Heise (2020) with elements of the social norms theory (Bicchieri, 2005,

> 4 Earlier surveys are excluded from the study either because they do not sample IDPs or do not include the set of questions required to conduct the analysis of gender norms.

> 5 The module also asks people if they moved to another municipality in the same department, to another department, or within the same municipality.

10
# **<u>REFRENCES</u>**

Baumol, William, 2002. _The Free-Market Innovation Machine_ . Princeton University Press. Caves, Richard E. 2000. _Creative Industries: Contracts Between Art and Commerce._ Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press Economic Review Committee (ERC), Creative Industries Report, 2002. Creative Industries Development Strategies, ERC Creative Industries Working Group. Singapore.

Economic Review Committee (ERC), Main Report, 2003. Final Report and Recommendations. Singapore.

Florida, Richard. 2002. _The Rise of the Creative Class: And How It's Transforming Work, Leisure, Community and Everyday Life_ . New York: Basic Books.

Ho, Peng Kee. 2002. Speech at the Opening of the Europe Asia Patent Information Conference. September 11 2002.

Hong Kong Trade Development Council, 2002, _Creative Industries in Hong Kong_ , Hong Kong Trade Development Council.

Howkins, John. 2001. _The Creative Economy_ . London: Penguin Press.

IMD, 2002/2003. _World Competitiveness Yearbook._ Lausanne, Switzerland.

Koh, Winston T H, 2003, “Towards Innovation-Driven Economic Growth: R&D Capabilities and Entrepreneurship in Singapore”, mimeo, SMU.

Krugman, Paul. “The Myth of Asia’s Miracle”, _Foreign Affairs_ , Nov/Dec 1994 73(6), pg.62-78.

Lee, Boon Yang. 2004. Speech at the Singapore Polytechnic 50<sup>th</sup> Anniversary Art@SP Showcase, April 14 2004.

Lee, Hsien Loong. 2003. Speech at the Annual Dinner of the Economics Society of Singapore. April 8 2003.

Lee, Hsien Loong. 2004. Speech at the Annual Dinner of Harvard Club, Singapore. Malanga, Steven (2004). “The Curse of the Creative Class”. _City Journal_ , Winter issue.

Mahmood, Ishtiaq P, and Carlos Rufin (2003). Government’s Dilemma: The Role of Government in Imitation and Innovation. Working Paper.

Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore. 2003. “Economic Contributions of Singapore’s Creative Industries”, _Economic Survey of Singapore_ , First Quarter.

37
Table 6: Intensive versus extensive margin

|All regressions included a country and industry specifc efect. The results re-<br>ported correspond to those obtained when private credit is instrumented using|
|---|
|a country’s legal origin and degree of rule of law. Panel A reports the (partial)|
|decomposition of the variance of the efect of fnancial development on the vari-<br>ance of real value added growth. The dependent variable is the variance of real|
|value added growth in column (A1), the variance of the growth in the number|
|of frms in column (A2), and the variance in the growth of real value added per|
|frm in column (A3). Analogously, Panel B decomposes the efect of fnancial|
|development on the depth of crises. Column (B1) uses the minimum growth rate|
|as dependent variable (see Panel B Table 3, column (B5)), column (B2) uses|
|the growth rate in the number of frms observed in the year of minimum growth|
|rate, and column (B3) uses the growth rate in the growth of real value added per|
|frm in the year of the minimum growth rate. All the coefcients were estimated|
|by 2SLS, using a country’s legal origin to instrument for its level of fnancial|
|development.|

# Panel A: Overall volatility

|Variables Dependent Variable|Variance|Variance|Variance|
|---|---|---|---|
||output<br>growth<br>(A1)|frms<br>growth<br>(A2)|output/frm<br>growth<br>(A3)|
|Interaction (Liquidity needs|-0.990*|-0.392*|-1.187*|
|X private credit)|0.175)|(0.094)|(0.223)|
|Obs.|2301|2136|2132|
|Panel B: Depth of the crises||||
|Variables Dependent Variable|Minim.<br>output<br>growth<br>(B1)|Firm<br>growth<br>at minim.<br>(B2)|output/frm<br>growth<br>at minim.<br>(B3)|
|Interaction (Liquidity needs|1.769*|0.357|1.001|
|X private credit)|(0.467)|(0.423)|(0.528)|
|Obs.|2301|1972|1972|

Note:*=Significant at 5% confidence. Robust standard errors in parenthesis.

32
WW2, financial crisis lending has become much more institutionalized and “serial” bailouts to highly indebted countries have become more common. This is partly the result of the rise of international and regional financial institutions, in particular the IMF and the World Bank. Lending by these multilateral creditors overtook total bilateral lending for the first time in the 1970s.

By comparing our novel data on official flows with previously assembled long-run data on private international capital flows by Reinhart, Reinhart and Trebesch (2019) we show that both series are negatively correlated. Official capital flows are highest when private capital flows dry out. During wartime, private investors usually face widespread capital controls, while governments lend at record pace, not just via domestic “buy war bonds” campaign, but also internationally. Furthermore, the data show that official creditors were the “only game in town” during the Bretton Woods era in the 1950s and 1960s, while private cross-border capital flows were scarce and heavily curtailed. An expanded official role is also evident during the height of the Great Depression in the 1930s and during the 2008 global financial crisis and its aftermath on periphery Europe, when central bank and sovereign lending spiked, while private capital outflows reversed.

It is not widely appreciated that we witnessed a comeback of official lending in the past two decades. China’s rise as an international creditor has been underestimated due to a lack of data and transparency. We document how China has become one of the most important official creditors worldwide, as almost all of its foreign lending is extended by the government and its state-owned banks (see also Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch 2019). China’s official lending boom is part of a more general rise of new creditor powers, especially emerging markets such as Russia, India, Brazil or the Arab oil states, who have all become active official lenders in varying degrees. In addition, dozens of new official lending institutions were founded since WW2, including a range of regional development banks and regional financial arrangements in Asia, Africa and South America. The result has been a notable increase in “South-South” official sovereign lending. More generally, we find a much higher incidence of official loans in the current era. Today, most financial crises, natural catastrophes and wars are accompanied by official lending of some form. This was not the case historically.

Similarly, we are seeing a resurgence of official financing via central banks. During the financial crisis of 2008 the Federal Reserve Bank, the ECB and the Bank of Japan granted record amounts of “swap lines” via a network of standing credit lines that allow drawing overnight foreign currency loans (Bahaj and Reis 2019). These developments are reminiscent of the flourishing crossborder central bank lending during the gold standard era pre-WW1 and in the interwar years. The newly resurrected and intensely used Federal Reserve swap lines during the Covid-19 pandemic is yet another example.

3
1. **Models that analyze outcomes of biofuel mandates at a global level** : The first category of models describes the impacts of biofuel demand in certain major regions on the global price of food. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) is a global partial equilibrium trade model originally developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) for projection of future demand and supply for agricultural commodities. The model predicts that when there is aggressive growth in ethanol and biodiesel supply with no accompanying increase in crop productivity compared to current levels. there is likely to be drastic increase in food prices. Results for calorie availability and child malnutrition portend a decline up to 194 kilocalories per person, while the number of malnourished children increases by 11 million children with the worst impacts being felt in sub-Saharan Africa followed by South Asia. However, in a scenario in which cellulosic ethanol technologies are adopted and productivity improvements are realized, the model predicts a softening of the impact prices and on malnutrition (Msangi 2006) (figure 13).  There is, nevertheless, an increase in the price of food crops under all scenarios. AGLINK-COSIMO is another dynamic partial equilibrium model of agricultural product markets developed by OECD and FAO for developing medium-term projections of supply, demand, trade and prices, as well as for the forward-looking analysis of policy changes and other factors. A special emphasis is given to domestic and trade policies, which are represented in detail. Nonagricultural markets are not modeled and are treated exogenously to the models.  The model predicts crop prices in 2014 could increase by 2% in the case of oilseeds and almost 60% in the case of sugar. One major drawback of this model is that projections are based on assumptions of unchanged conditions in terms of technology, feedstock mix, and area use since 2004. In addition, neither the potential use of currently unproductive land nor the implications of trade in biofuels are taken into account (OECD 2006).

2. **Models that analyze outcomes of biofuel mandates at a national level** : The second category of models simulates the impacts of biofuel mandates at the 45
Hardy, Morgan, Seongyoon Kim, Jamie McCasland, Andreas Menzel and Marc Witte (2024) “Allocating labor across small firms: Experimental evidence on information constraints”, _Journal of Development Economics_ 103345 Lucas, Robert (1978) “On the Size Distribution of Business Firms”, _Bell Journal of Economics_ 9(2): 508-523.

McKenzie, David (2021) “Small business training to improve management practices in developing countries: Reassessing the evidence for "training doesn't work", _Oxford Review of Economic Policy_ , 37(2): 276-301, McKenzie, David and Susana Puerto (2021) “Growing Markets Through Business Training for Female Entrepreneurs: A Market-Level Randomized Experiment in Kenya”, _American Economic Journal: Applied Economics_ 13(2): 297-332.

McKenzie, David, Christopher Woodruff, Kjetil Bjorvatn, Miriam Bruhn, Jing Cai, Juanita Gonzalez-Uribe, Simon Quinn, Tetsushi Sonobe, and Martin Valdivia (2023) “Training Entrepreneurs” _VoxDevLit_ , 1(3), September.

Mensmann, Mona and Michael Frese (2019) “Who stays proactive after entrepreneurship training? Need for cognition, personal initiative maintenance, and well-being”, _Journal of Organizational Behavior_ , 40(1): 20-37 Mensmann, Mona and Michael Frese (2017) “Proactive behavior training”, p.p. 434-468 in S.K. Parker and U.K. Bindl (eds.) _Proactivity at Work._ New York: Routledge.

Riley, Emma (2024) “Resisting social pressure in the household using mobile money: Experimental evidence on microenterprise investment in Uganda”, _American Economic Review_ 114(5): 1415-47.

Viviano, Davide, Kaspar Wüthrich, and Paul Niehaus (2024) “A model of multiple hypothesis testing”, Mimeo. UCSD.

18
**Table 1: Selected manifestations and consequences of malnutrition in all its forms over the life course**

|**Consequences**|**Manifestations**|**Lifecycle Phase**|**Manifestations**|**Consequences**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Energy-insufficient, nutrient inade**|**quate diets**||**Energy-excess diets**||
|• Inadequate foetal growth &<br>development (intra uterine<br>growth retardation)<br>• Increased risk of maternal<br>mortality<br>• Preterm birth|• Underweight<br>• Inadequate GWG<br>• Nutrient<br>deficiencies|Pregnant<br>&<br>lactating women|• Overweight<br>• Obesity|• Gestational diabetes<br>• Epigenetic changes<br>• Increased risk of maternal mortality<br>• Pre-term birth|
|• Inadequate growth<br>• Inadequate brain development &<br>cognitive impairment<br>• Compromised function of the<br>immune system<br>• Increased risk for neonatal<br>mortality and morbidity|• Small for<br>gestational age<br>• Low birth weight<br>• Preterm birth|Newborns<br>&<br>Infants (U2)|• Large for gestational age|Increased risk for neonatal mortality<br>and morbidity<br>Overweight and obesity in adulthood<br>Type II diabetes in adulthood<br>Cardiovascular disease in adulthood|
|• Inadequate brain development &<br>cognitive impairment<br>• Compromised function of the<br>immune system|• Nutrient<br>deficiencies<br>• Underweight<br>• Stunting<br>• Wasting|Children<br>(up to 9 years)|• Overweight<br>• Obesity|Development of non-communicable<br>diseases<sup>3</sup>|
|• Cognitive impairment|• Underweight<br>• Nutrient<br>deficiencies|Adolescents<br>(10-19 years UN)|• Overweight<br>• Obesity|• Development of neurological<br>disorders<br>• Development of non-communicable<br>diseases|
|• Cognitive impairment<br>• Neurological disorders|• Underweight<br>• Nutrient<br>deficiencies|Adults (>19 to 64 years)|• Overweight<br>• Obesity|• Cardiovascular diseases, cancer,<br>type II diabetes|
|• Frailty<br>• Cognitive impairment<br>• Neurological disorders|• Nutrient<br>deficiencies<br>• Sudden weight<br>loss|Older adults<br>(65>)|• Overweight<br>• Obesity<br>• Sarcopenic obesity|• Cardiovascular diseases, cancer,<br>type II diabetes<br>• Risk for frailty<br>• Cognitive impairment<br>• Neurological disorders|

> 3 NCD Child (2023).

27
The BBR and SSR can either keep the composition of spending constant or try to increase investment as in Table 1. As in the Default submodel, the highinvestment rule is called a Hartwick Rule (HR), though its application here is more complicated and closer to how it is applied in practice. The principle behind HRs is to prevent extra revenues earned from exhaustible natural resource from being used to finance government consumption. Accordingly, under an HR, all cyclical resource revenue must be invested either in physical or financial assets.<sup>23</sup> The rule is implemented by adding the following inequality to the model: ⁄ 0 ����� (usually, ����� = 1) gg this inequality states that the Sustainable Budget Index (SBI, the ratio of tt tt tt tt tt SSBBII ≡cc zz ≤SSBBII SSBBII government consumption to non-resource revenues) must be equal or lower than an exogenously determined threshold ����� (typically set to one for all ). An >1 means that government consumption is being financed at least partially by resource tt tt SSBBII tt SSBBII revenues. An <1 means that resource revenues are being invested either in physical or financial assets, while consumption is being financed only from non-tt SSBBII resource revenues. Capping the to one ensures that assets are being preserved (for a detailed discussion, see Lange and Wright 2004).tt<sup>24</sup> SSBBII The standard SBI rule (with ����� = 1) works well for governments with moderate dependence on resource revenues but might be too restrictive for tt SSBBII countries where resource revenues represent a large part of the budget. For example, Angola’s fiscal oil revenues account for more than 80 percent of total revenues. In this case, it is inevitable that oil revenues are partially consumed to run basic functions of the government. For that reason, the user of the LTGM-NR can choose any positive value for ����� . A possibility is to set ����� to 0 ⁄ 00 implying gg that the cannot increase over time (as in section IV.B).tt tt<sup>25</sup> Although this SSBBII SSBBII cc zz configuration does not match perfectly the asset-preservation principle, it prevents tt SSBBII the government from increasing consumption in times of high resource revenues.

> 23 Some countries consider spending on education and health as investment in human capital, so the HR would not constrain this type of expenditure.

> 24 Botswana is the most celebrated country to incorporate the SBI rule in its fiscal framework for diamond revenues (AfDB 2016). 25 Another possible application is to set ����� to match historical SBI values.

> SSBBIItt 17
# Export and Labor Market Outcomes:

# A Supply Chain Perspective - Evidence from Viet Nam

Deeksha Kokas<sup>a</sup> Gladys Lopez-Acevedo<sup>b</sup> Ha Vu<sup>c</sup>

> a Nanyang Technological University

> b Poverty and Equity Global Practice, World Bank *

> c Economic Frontiers, International Institute for Applied System Analysis

*STATMEMENTS AND DECLARATIONS: This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Practice at the World Bank Group. It was funded by the UFT Trade Facilitation Program and the Australia World Bank Group Strategic Partnership in Viet Nam Phase 2 (ABP2). We thank the following colleagues for their support during this process Raymond Robertson, Matthew Wai-Poi, Rinku Murgai, Judy Yang, Dorsati Madani, Sacha Dray and Deborah Elisabeth Winkler. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank.