compared to the boom years up to 2007: it was only 6.4% in the period 2009q1-2013q1 (Table 4). The IMF (WEO, 2012) documents that while the country is expanding manufacturing capacity, particularly at the higher-end industries, and facilitating productivity improvements, including relocation of industries away from the coastal provinces to lower-cost inland locations, there has been in the wake of the global crisis a deterioration of China’s terms of trade and rising costs and wages, which may have contributed to the moderation of the contribution of push factors. The IMF (WEO, 2012) documents policy uncertainty and supply bottlenecks that are constraining potential growth. They may have concurred to the observed recent moderation of supply-side performance.

**Table 4: Decomposition of export market shares growth into composition and country specific performance: G-3, BRICS and MIST (2009 q1 – 2013 q1)**

||Export|**Export market**|Specialization<br>effe|composition<br>cts|Market s<br>com|hares growt<br>position ef|h without<br>fects|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||rowth|**share chane**|||Overall|||
||g|**g**|Geographical|Sectoral|<br>(value)|Price|Volumes|
|G-3||||||||
|USA|3,0|0,3|1,3|0,8|-1,8|-0,2|-1,6|
|Japan|-0,8|-3,5|3,3|-0,7|-6,2|2,0|-8,1|
|EU-27:|-1,4|-4,2|-2,7|0,7|-2,2|-1,5|-0,6|
|EA17:|-1,6|-4,3|-2,6|0,7|-2,5|-1,6|-0,8|
|France|-3,1|-5,8|-2,3|2,1|-5,7|-1,6|-4,1|
|Germany|-2,1|-4,8|-2,3|0,3|-2,8|-2,1|-0,7|
|Italy|-2,3|-5,1|-2,1|0,0|-3,0|-1,5|-1,5|
|UK|-2,9|-5,7|-2,5|0,9|-4,0|-1,7|-2,4|
|BRICS||||||||
|Brazil|3,0|0,3|1,1|0,4|-1,2|0,7|-1,9|
|Russia|2,5|-0,3|-1,4|-1,4|2,6|2,1|0,4|
|India|11,1|8,4|2,0|1,3|5,1|-0,9|5,9|
|China|7,7|4,9|0,8|-2,2|6,4|1,6|4,7|
|South Africa|10,6|7,8|1,7|3,5|2,6|-4,9|7,5|
|MIST||||||||
|Mexico|7,3|4,6|-1,3|0,1|5,7|1,1|4,6|
|Indonesia|6,2|3,5|2,2|0,3|1,0|1,2|-0,2|
|South Korea|6,0|3,3|4,2|-1,4|0,4|0,7|-0,3|
|Turkey|5,4|2,7|-1,3|-2,8|6,7|-1,3|8,0|

_Note: figures are averages of the year on year changes in natural logarithms (delta log) in the period 2009q1-2013q1, which preserve the additivity of its components. For relatively small changes the delta log approximates almost exactly the simple percentage growth rate (e.g. ln(1+5%)=0.0488). To obtain the corresponding growth rate of an indicator or of their sum it is sufficient to compute the exponential. Section 3.2 of the paper and footnote 10 provide additional explanations on this point._ Meanwhile, high commodity prices in the run-up to the financial crisis and in the period 20102011 supported export growth in commodity exporters, including Brazil and Russia. The export specialization in commodities explains the dependence of export performance on pull factors (more on this in Section 4). Commodity exporters are greatly influenced by price swings. It is not only their exports that are influenced, but also their supply-side performance, with the result that these countries are greatly exposed to economic volatility induced by commodity price fluctuations. This is visible from Figure 3, which shows important similarities in the patterns of export performance of Russia and Brazil. In both countries, growth in market shares – especially in value terms – is subject to considerable cyclicality and highly correlated to the cycle of the 25