rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
WPS3722 THE STRUCTURE OF LOBBYING AND PROTECTION IN U.S. AGRICULTURE

# **KISHORE GAWANDE**<sup>**1**</sup>

**Abstract:** This paper surveys the empirical literature on the political economy of agricultural protection. A detailed data set of agricultural PAC (Political Action Committee) contributions over five U.S. congressional election cycles over the 1991-2000 period is used to investigate the relationship between lobbying spending and agricultural protection. A detailed graphical analysis of campaign contributions by the agricultural PACs indicates that although there are very many PACs, in most sectors the majority of contributions are made by very few PACs. Econometric analysis reveals that lobbying spending by agricultural PACs is positively associated with the use of nontariff barriers and specific tariffs by the US; there is a strong association between the average US tariff on goods that benefit from US export subsidies and lobbying spending; and no association between agricultural protection and trade measures such as import penetration and the export-to-output ratio.

JEL Code: F13, Q18, D72.

Keywords: Lobbying; PACs; Political Economy; Agricultural Protection.

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3722, September 2005 _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> 1 Helen and Roy Ryu Professor of International Affairs, Bush School of Government, Texas A&M University. Email: <u>kgawande@tamu.edu. Phone: (979) 458-8034.</u> Funding from the World Bank is acknowledged.
points less likely to discuss the use of the transfer in advance with other family members, with a statistically significant effect at the 5 percent level. Whether this reflects the need for greater intrahousehold communication before attending the fairs or greater decision-making power in _voucher_ households is unclear. However, all other indicators related to intra-household decision-making are not statistically significant at conventional levels.

The results in table 5 thus suggest that the voucher program functioned as designed: v _oucher_ households had to spend their transfer all at once at the voucher fair and did not have unrestricted choice. This design naturally affected what households purchased, including considerations about arranging transport, storage and resale.<sup>40</sup>

# _Why Was Well-Being the Same in Voucher and Cash Households?_

Despite the fact that the voucher modality led to different purchasing decisions between _voucher_ and _cash_ households, there were no differences in food security or asset ownership. Why was this the case? The most likely explanation is that the transfers were non-binding; in other words, _voucher_ households could sell the goods that they purchased or share some of these goods with other households, whereas _cash_ households could share some of their cash. Alternatively, if an underground market for vouchers existed, voucher recipients could have sold their voucher.<sup>41</sup> In addition, since the food security data were collected three weeks after each transfer, the absence of differences could be due to resale, storage, or lumpy expenditures.<sup>42</sup> Finally, the transfer modality could have affected intra-household decision-making, thereby affecting welfare outcomes.

> 40 As transport from the voucher fair to the camp cost US$5 per trip, program recipients stated that weight was a consideration in deciding what to purchase. For example, 65 percent of voucher recipients traveled with family members to the fair in order to help with transport. Those who were unable to travel with family members either purchased fewer items or smaller items that could be easily carried.  As one voucher program participant mentioned, “If something was too heavy, I didn’t buy it...I wanted to buy two boxes of salt but could only carry one, so I bought one plus other things.”

> 41 While the sale of vouchers was technically prohibited, some program recipients reported exchanging their voucher for cash, potentially resulting in a lower income transfer to the household. Although it is impossible to gauge the frequency with which this practice occurred, voucher recipients reported that they could exchange their US$20 voucher for approximately US$11.25–US$14.15 at the fair. This suggests that vouchers traded for about 55–70 percent of their face value.

> 42 However, as our survey asked about assets currently in the household, we believe that the storage story is unlikely.

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outside of export sectors (construction and services) and that while rural registered residents experienced a severe employment shock, the vast majority were reemployed by late 2009. By early 2010, China’s research community was again speaking of labor shortages.

# **7. References**

- Chen, Dahong. 2010. ―Trend of Migration Employment and Demand for Migrant Workers in 2010: Analysis Based on MOHRSS Survey.‖ In _Population and Labor Report in 2010_ , Cai Fang, ed, pp 23-34. Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press.

- China Customs. 2010. China Customs Statistics Information, Customs General Administration of China, Beijing. (www.cusstat.cn).

- China Labor Market Information Center. 2010. Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, Beijing. (http://www.lm.gov.cn/DataAnalysis/node_1041.htm)

CULS. 2010. _China Urban Labor Survey_ , 2010. Institute for Population and Labor Statistics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing.

- CNFS 2009. _China National Survey of Manufacturing Firms_ , Research Bureau of the People’s Bank of China, Beijing.

- IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2009. _World Economic Outlook 2009: Crisis and Recovery._ Washington, DC: IMF.

- Huang, Jikun, Huayong Zhi, Zhurong Huang, Scott Rozelle, and John Giles. 2011. ―The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Off-farm Employment and Earnings in Rural China.‖ _World Development_ 39 (5): 797–807.

- Johnson, Ian, and Andrew Batson. 2009. ―China’s Migrants See Jobless Ranks Soar.‖ _Wall Street Journal_ , February 3, A1.

- Kong, Sherry Tao, Xin Meng, and Dandan Zhang. 2009. ―Impact of Economic Slowdown on Migrant Workers.‖ In _China’s New Place in a World in Crisis: Economic, Geopolitical and Environmental Dimensions,_ ed. R. Garnaut, L. Song, and W. T. Woo, pp 233-260 **.** Canberra: Australian National University E Press.

- Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security (2009). _Notice on Reducing Enterprise Burdens and Stabilizing Employment._ Beijing: Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.

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**Table 5.1 Best Estimates of Exposure-Response Functions for the ZMVM for the General Population (unless stated otherwise)**

|_Endpoints_<br>|_Percent_<br>_changeper_<br>_10ppbdaily_<br>_1-hmaxozone_|_Percent change_<br>_per10,ug/m3_<br>_dailyaverage_<br>_PM1o _|_Background_<br>_rates_<br>_(per100,000_<br>_persons)_|_Notes_|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|_Hospitaladmission_<br>|||||
|Respiratory<br>|3.76<br>|1.39<br>|411<br>||
|Cardiocerebrovascular<br>|0.98|0.60<br>|403<br>||
|Congestiveheartfailure<br>|-|1.22|5.1||
|_Emergencyroomvisits(ERV)_<br>Respiratory|3.17|3.11|3,168||
|<br>_Restrictedactivitydays(RAD)_<br>|||||
|Total (adults)<br>|-|7.74<br>|646,050<br>||
|Worklossdays(adults)<sup>9</sup>|-|7.74|236,520||
|||||Assumedsame<br>astotalRAD<br>|
|||||backgroundrate<br>|
|Total(children)'<br>||7.74|646,050|<br>inadults|
|Worklossdayswomen dueto|||||
|<br>RADinchildrenh<br>|-|7.74|332,000||
|_Minorrestrictedactivitydays(MRAD)_<br>|||||
|Total(adults)|2.20|4.92|780,000||
|_EffectsinAsthmatic'_<br>|||||
|Asthmaattacksa|2.45|7.74|12,740||
|Coughwithoutphlegm(chil-<br>|||||
|dren)|-|4.54|21,200||
|||||0.1 *chronic<br>|
|||||cough without<br>|
|Coughwithphlegm(children)<br>|-|3.32|2,120|phlegm|
|Couhwithhlem&bron-|||||
|g pg <br>chodilatorusaged<br>|-|10.22|56,174||
|Somerespiratory symptoms<br>||||_Sameas_cough<br>|
|(children)<br>|0.66<br>|-|21,200<br>|withoutphlegm|
|Lowerrespiratorysymptoms<br>|0.23|-|8,810||
|_Respiratorysymptoms_|||||
|Upperrespiratorysymptomsd|1.50|4.39|22,400|**1**|
|<br>Lowerrespiratorysymptomsd<br>|2.20<br>|6.85|9,000<br>|**1**|
|Wheezed|1.32|-|10,600||
|Acutebronchitisd<br>|-|11.0|4,400||
|_Morbidity-Chronic Exposure_<br>|||||
|Chronic bronchitis,additional|||||
|cases<br>|-|3.60|707||
|Chroniccough,prevalence<br>|||||
|(children)|-|0.30|5,770||
|_Mortality-ChronicExposure_|||||
|<br>Totale|-|3.84|**b**|**1**|
|_Mortality-AcuteExposure_<br>|||||
|Total'<br>|0.59|1.01<br>|577.9<br>||
|lnfant'<br>|-<br>|3.52<br>|3,133||
|_Source:_Cesarandothers(2000),S|ummaryTables,11|.4.|||

a. Included in MRAD (U.S. EPA 1999).

b. Estimated with life expectancy and survival probability tables by 1-year age interval, see section 111.2.2.

c. ER-functions to be applied to asthmatics in population only (5 percent of population).

d. Included in RAD for PM,o (U.S. EPA 1999).

e. Originally identified for people age 30+ but applied to all population.

f. Not included in aggregated benefit estimates because of methodological problems of separating morality associated with acute exposure from mortality associated with chronic exposure.

g. Assumed the same ER-function as RAD total adults.

h. WLD in adult women due to RAD of their children.

1. Boletin de Informaci6n Estadistica. Dafos a la Salud. Secretarla de Salud, Septiembre, Mexico (1996).

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owning or operating agricultural land); log values of durable assets, housing and livestock; age of household head; dummy for households in which heads are literate; dummy for households in which heads are married; and, separately, the numbers of men, women and children. We include the household composition variables to control for differences in consumption requirements between children and adults and for economies of scale in consumption.<sup>12</sup> The asset values are intended to control for wealth effects and are assumed to be quasi-fixed in the short run.<sup>13</sup> The value of durable goods is estimated based on a detailed inventory of household assets; it accounts for depreciation and the opportunity cost of the funds tied up in the good. For housing, we estimate a hedonic model for housing based on characteristics of the structure, as well as the location, and derive an imputed rental value from this.<sup>14</sup> All values are in Afghani.

At the district level, we include dummies for topography—plateau and mountainous areas (plains areas make up the excluded category). To control for observable and unobservable time-invariant province-level factors that could confound the results, we include province dummy variables. While this method does not control for time-varying province characteristics, it does control for factors such as instability and conflict that may present in certain provinces throughout the survey year.

> 12 An alternative approach to account for such differences employs equivalency scales that take into account nutritional requirements based on age and, sometimes, gender when calculating per capita measures.  See, for an early example, Buse and Salathe (1978). An advantage of including household composition in the specification, rather than using equivalence scales, is that this method allows the data to specify the parameterization of the scales.

> 13In previous versions of this work, we included quintiles of total per capita consumption in the specification to control for wealth and socio-economic status. A concern with this specification is that food consumption is one component of total consumption, thus inclusion of total consumption in any form would introduce endogeneity bias. We are grateful to a conference discussant for noting that, even more importantly, the inclusion of the consumption quintiles only allows the price effect to pick up variation within consumption quintiles and not across quintiles. In lieu of consumption, we now use multiple measures of assets to control for wealth and socio-economic status, and we treat these as fixed in the short run (i.e., not immediately linked to food consumption).

> 14 The estimated housing value is the log of imputed, monthly rental value based on a hedonic model of the housing structure. The log value of assets is a self-assessed valuation based on a list of 13 assets including items such as stoves, refrigerators, radios, sewing machines, and bicycles.  For details of the estimation, see Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Central Statistics Organization (2011).

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has undertaken a special effort to promote the internationalization of its service sector.<sup>1</sup> We use a firm level innovation survey that includes both the manufacturing and services sectors. This survey was carried out in 2007 and covers the period 2005-2006.

In this study we present three sets of findings: the first two relate, respectively, to services firms’ exporting and innovating behavior; while the third relates to the links between trade and innovation.

First, services firms have a much lower propensity to export than manufacturing firms but the exporter size premium for the services sector is significantly lower than for the manufacturing sector. In other words, fewer services firms export but those that do are not necessarily much larger than nonexporters. We suggest that this pattern can be explained by the relatively greater importance in services exports of skills rather than scale. In fact, we find that while all exporters tend to be more skillintensive than non-exporters, the “export skills premium” is greater in services than in manufacturing.

Second, services firms appear to be as innovative as manufacturing firms, in terms of inputs in and outputs of innovative activity, measured using both subjective and objective indicators. But, as expected, services firms tend to rely relatively more on non-technological forms of innovation than manufacturing firms. These refer to innovations in product design and organizational management in production, work environment or management structure of the firm, as opposed to “technological” innovation, which refers to introduction of new products or processes in the market, and expenditure related to R&D, physical equipment acquisition and training related to them.<sup>4</sup> Third, we find that exporters tend to be significantly more innovative than non-exporters, both in manufacturing and services. Moreover, the gap in innovation between exporters and non-exporters

> 1 Because of data limitations our analysis focuses on cross-border trade and not on other modes of supply (i.e. FDI or movement of people). Specifically we do not cover foreign sales by subsidiaries, and hence cannot do justice to services like retail where Chilean firms have been heavily investing abroad and become leaders in the region.

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children, and lower ability children. We start from the observation that parents in this setting often decide strategically to invest more in the education of some of their children (Akresh, Bagby, de Walque, and Kazianga, 2012a, 2012b highlight in our baseline survey strategic enrollment choices by parents based on child ability). Because our sample population includes all children (boys and girls ages 7-15), we can explicitly measure the differential impacts of conditionality on “marginal” children compared to other children.

There is credible evidence that both types of transfer schemes can substantially improve child education.<sup>2</sup> However, only one published study explicitly compares conditional and unconditional cash transfers in the same context (Baird, McIntosh, and Özler, 2011).<sup>3</sup> They examine in Malawi the impact of conditionality on the drop-out rates of adolescent girls enrolled at baseline and find that CCTs are more effective than UCTs for these girls. As we discuss in greater detail below, our results are different from theirs. We find that CCTs are more effective than UCTs for marginal children (a group that might include adolescent girls in Malawi), while UCTs are equally effective as CCTs for non-marginal children. Since our cash transfer intervention focused on a broader range of child age and gender and on both margins of school enrollment (bringing non-enrolled children into school and reducing drop-outs), we are able to explain how conditionality works and specifically for which types of children it works best.

> 2 For the evidence of CCT impacts on education in Mexico see Schultz (2004), Behrman, Sengupta, and Todd (2005), de Janvry et al. (2006), and Attanasio, Meghir, and Santiago (2011); in Colombia see Attanasio et al. (2010) and Barrera-Osorio et al. (2012); in Nicaragua see Maluccio and Flores (2005) and Macours, Schady, and Vakis (2012); in Honduras see Glewwe and Olinto (2004); in Brazil see Bursztyn and Coffman (2012) and Glewwe and Kassouf (2012); in Cambodia see Filmer and Schady (2011). For the evidence of UCT education impacts in Ecuador see Paxson and Schady (2010) and Edmonds and Schady (2012); in South Africa see Case, Hosegood, and Lund (2005) and Edmonds (2006).

> 3 Other studies use accidental glitches in program implementation to compare UCTs and CCTs. Some households in Mexico (de Brauw and Hoddinott, 2011) and Ecuador (Schady and Araujo, 2008) did not think the cash transfer program was conditional, and school enrollment was lower among those households who thought the transfers were unconditional. Evaluations using structural models conduct counterfactual analyses that find UCTs would have no impact or a much lower impact on enrollment (Bourguignon, Ferreira and Leite, 2003; Todd and Wolpin, 2006).

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**Figure 1: Nigerian Spreads, 2000-2005**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 2000q1 2001q3 2003q1 2004q3 2006q1<br>date<br>(sum) wide_spread_fees (sum) wide_spread<br>(sum) narrow_spread<br>.25<br>.2<br>.15<br>.1<br>.05<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Own calculations based on CBN data The spreads are weighted by their loan share.

**Figure 2: Equity/ Asset Ratio 2000-2005**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 2000q1 2001q3 2003q1 2004q3 2006q1<br>date<br>(sum) equity_lending (sum) equity_deposit<br>.2<br>.15<br>.1<br>.05<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Own calculations based on CBN data The equity measure is weighted by their loan and deposit share 32
relevant as the latest available data suggests that coverage of COVID-19 vaccinations remained relatively low, under 50% of the population as of March 2023 (Coronavirus Resource Center, 2023). Survey studies highlighted the prevalence of COVID-19 misinformation as a driver of vaccination status in Jordan along with other barriers like perceived financial cost (Sallah et al., 2022) although the government provided the vaccine free of cost and incentivized vaccination through introduction of an online portal that allowed for greater mobility among the vaccinated (Wolters & Abir, 2022). Moreover, the public continues to encounter mis- and dis-information related to vaccination, including growing rumors about potential harms of the recently introduced measles and rubella vaccine for school-aged children in September 2023 (Barakat et al., 2023; Kuttab, 2023).

Beyond vaccination, the inoculation game tested in this study could be effective in stopping the spread of misinformation in other health domains that require active stakeholder engagements to promote accurate health information, such as healthy behaviors to reduce the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (e.g., cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus) and associated risk factors (e.g., hypertension, overweight/obesity, hyperglycemia). For example, misinformation about tobacco, vaping, and e-cigarettes is growing increasingly common online (Al-Rawi et al., 2023; Romer et al., 2020), representing a new threat to global anti-smoking and tobacco control efforts. With such extensions, future research will need to identify the most relevant misinformation techniques and incorporate them into inoculation tools tailored to these domains.

This research also adds to the growing body of evidence of social media interventions (e.g., Donati et al., 2022) demonstrating the value of leveraging digital communication platforms like WhatsApp to implement low-cost interventions and evaluation in environments where resources for program implementation and data collection are limited. In particular, the increasing ease of 34
# Figure **III.4** Indonesia--Policy responses and incentives to borrow abroad

<!-- Start of picture text --> Monetary policy: components of reserve money Fiscal policy: fiscal impulse and demand<br>growth pressures<br>Indonesia<br>percent Indonesia percent<br>120 - 2 -<br>Q_ | ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-2<br>100 , -3<br>1080 1990 1991 1992 1993 1904 1905 1990 ¶997 t999 1990 1991 1992 1993 1094 1990 199b 1597<br>_contribution of domestic credit to reserve money growth E x aOOScess demand<br>a=contribution of net foreign assets to reserve mooey growth _ Fiscat imputs<br>reserve money growth (percent of GDP)<br><!-- End of picture text -->

60 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--0 Fiscal impulse estimates based on the non oil sector

-40 ~~ ~ **~** ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~0 -60 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~29 Differentials between domestic deposit rates and loo ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-3-9Nominal exchange rate and variability of U'S LIBOR unpredictable component of nominal exchange rate movements.

<!-- Start of picture text --> todoceeja<br>percent p~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~fercentIne<br>s5 Indonesia so- -112<br>g _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- t109<br>20- -104<br>0- - 102<br>1989 1990 1992 1994 1999 -7 1990 199 e<br>D -domestic deposit ratesdiferential between domestic deposit r and US LIBOR ates<br>(edloisted for ax post exchange rate movements)<br><!-- End of picture text --> The variability of the unpredictable component is given by the estimation of an ARCH model of the nominal exchange rate on a constnt and a time trend.. Nominal exchange rate index 1990=100.

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