# **Table 2. Summary Statistics**

|**Variables**|**Number**<br>**of**<br>**countries**|**Number of**<br>**Observations**|**Mean**|**Standard**<br>**Deviation**|**Median**|**Min**|**Max**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|WB-GEP Forecast Error (January) T|126|1242|1.2|4.4|0.3|-12.4|63.5|
|WB-GEP Absolute Value of Forecast Error (January) T|126|1242|2.4|3.9|1.2|0|63.5|
|IMF-WEO Forecast Error (January) T|126|1242|1.4|4.4|0.5|-11.4|42.2|
|IMF-WEO Absolute Value of Forecast Error (January) T|126|1242|2.6|3.8|1.4|0|42.2|
|WB-GEP Forecast Error (January) T+1|125|1114|1.7|4.1|0.7|-12.4|33.2|
|WB-GEP Absolute Value of Forecast Error (January) T+1|125|1114|2.7|3.5|1.5|0|33.2|
|WB-GEP Forecast Error (January) T+2|121|681|2.6|4.5|1.3|-19.5|28.7|
|WB-GEP Absolute Value of Forecast Error (January) T+2|121|681|3.3|4.0|1.8|0|28.7|
|Consensus/Focus Economics Forecast Error (January) T|56|326|1.7|4.3|0.4|-8.7|32.2|
|Consensus Absolute Value of Forecast Error (January) T|56|326|2.5|3.9|1.0|0.02|32.2|
|Log of Overall Average SCI Score (lagged)|126|1242|4.22|0.2|4.2|3.3|4.6|
|Log of GDP Per Capita (Constant 2010 US$) (lagged)|126|1242|7.9|1.0|8.1|5.3|9.8|
|Export Commodity Price Shocks (T)|126|1242|-0.001|0.03|0|-0.3|0.1|
|Absolute Value of Export Commodity Price Shocks (T)|126|1242|0.01|0.03|0.01|0|0.3|
|Internal Conflicts Shocks Dummy (T)|126|1242|0.2|0.4|0|0|1|
|Log of Total Population (lagged)|126|1242|16.2|1.8|16.2|11.2|21.1|
|Boom Dummy =1 if Above 10-year Rolling Median Growth (lagged)|126|1242|0.4|0.5|0|0|1|
|Growth Volatility (Rolling GDP Growth Rate Sd - 10 years) (lagged)|126|1242|3.2|2.7|2.6|0.3|45.7|
|Log of Overall Average SPI Score (lagged)|165|655|4.096|0.294|4.109|2.97|4.503|
|Log of SCI-GDP Transparency Direct (lagged)|126|1240|-0.7|0.5|-0.5|-2.7|0|
|Log of SCI-GDP Transparency Indirect (lagged)|126|1240|-0.5|0.4|-0.3|-1.4|0|
|Log of SCI-GDP Transparency Other (lagged)|126|1240|-0.3|0.2|-0.3|-1.2|0|
|Rule of Law (lagged)|116|1044|-0.5|0.6|-0.5|-1.9|1.4|
|Polity (lagged)|116|1044|3.9|5.4|6|-9|10|
|Informality (lagged)|116|1044|52.7|23.5|51.1|4.0|95.1|
|Natural Disasters Shocks Dummy (T)|116|1044|0.04|0.2|0|0|1|

Source: Authors’ calculations based on the World Bank’s January _Global Economic Prospects_ , the International Monetary Fund’s January _World Economic Outlook_ , January Consensus Forecasts, January Focus Economics Forecasts, the World Bank's _Statistical Capacity Indicator,_ the World Bank's _Statistical Performance Indicators,_ the World Bank’s _World Development Indicators_ , the Export Commodity Price Shocks data from Gruss and Kebhaji (2019), and the UCDP-PRIO Dataset for Conflict, the World Bank’s _Worldwide Governance Indicators,_ Polity5 dataset version 2018 from the Center for Systemic Peace, and the EM-DAT (The International Disaster Database).

Note: GDP growth forecast errors are calculated as the forecasted GDP growth rates minus realized GDP growth rates. Absolute growth forecast errors are calculated as the absolute value of the forecast errors. The summary statistics are based on the sample of the main regression results. Variables used in robustness checks or extensions of the main results may have fewer observations than the main regression results.

Additional robustness checks of our models required data on institutions, informality and natural disasters. Data on the quality of institutions were obtained from the Polity5 Regime Authority Characteristics and Transitions Dataset by the Center for Systemic peace, mainly the Polity Index, as well as the Rule of Law Indicator from the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators. Informality is proxied by the share of “self-employed” individuals in total employment from ILO estimates. Finally, a natural 11