Finally, we use a reduced version of the human asset index taken from Feindouno and Goujon (2019) (28). Their HAI is a simple composite index from 0 (low score) to 100 (best score) which includes four subcomponents: i) un undernourishment index, ii) the under five years old mortality index, iii) the adult literacy rate index, and iv) the secondary school enrollment index. We recompute the HAI by excluding the adult literacy rate index as it is difficult to interpret this indicator in post-war situation for CAR due to the significant number people registered as international refugees (744, 000 or 13.3 percent of the population at end of 2022), mostly in neighboring countries, comprising an unknown proportion of literate and illiterate adults. The reduced version of HAI is available from 1990 (the first year available for CAR) up to 2014, which enables us to only capture the short-term impact of the civil war during the rule of Michel Djotodia as the President of the Republic after the Séléka rebel coalition took over Bangui.

Table A1 lists the countries included in the synthetic controls, along with their weights. It also provides pre-war and post-war outcome values in CAR for the synthetic controls. Additionally, this table displays CAR MSPE in the pre-war period for each type of outcome, offering a comprehensive overview of the synthetic controls' performance.

# **Empirical results**

CAR has faced a persistent lack of economic growth since gaining independence in 1960. The country’s history of political instability is characterized by a series of coups, which led to a fragile institutional framework and a decline in overall productivity. This decline is noticeable in the absence of structural transformation, limited technological progress and innovation, and poor management of both public and private enterprises. Moreover, the country’s GDP _per capita_ in 2012 was equivalent to the level recorded in 1990, highlighting the stagnation that had plagued the nation for over two decades (see Figure 1).

In addition, the subsequent civil war in 2013 triggered a devastating divergence in CAR's actual GDP _per capita_ compared to its synthetic control. This divergence remained massive in 2017 (see Figure 2). A permutation test reveals that this impact is not only significant but also the most substantial when compared to other countries, surpassing even the six states (out of 19 in the donor pool) with MSPE less than or equal to five times that of CAR (see Figure 3). The disparities in GDP _per capita_ between CAR and its synthetic control from 2012 to 2014 indicate a drastic collapse in income levels during the fall of Bangui, amounting to approximately USD 490 _per capita_ . Furthermore, the extended period from 2012 to 2017 witnessed a staggering decline of approximately USD 503 _per capita_ . These figures represent normalized gaps of 40.6 percent and 41.6 percent, respectively, when compared to the actual GDP _per capita_ in 2012. Consequently, it is not surprising that CAR is unlikely to reclaim its pre-war economic development level until the late 2030s (1). In the analysis that follows, we take a closer look at the factors contributing to this gloomy outlook, which reinforces the plausibility of this scenario.

**Figure 1: Income level in CAR, 1990-2017**

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