Table A.7: Logit analysis, 1995‐2015, Project Outcome (Dummy for Successful Outcome as independent variable) and ERR Reported in both PAD and ICR of explanatory variables (Model 3)

||(1)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(2)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(3)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(4)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(5)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(6)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(7)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(8)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(9)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(10)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(11)<br>Suc/Unsuc|(12)<br><br>Suc/Unsuc|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|GDP PCgrowth|0.0418***|0.0403***|0.0404***|0.0408***|0.0402**|0.0416***|0.0421***|0.0372***|0.0340**|0.0389***|0.0356**|0.0368**|
||(2.98)|(2.88)|(2.89)|(2.89)|(2.51)|(2.95)|(2.99)|(2.63)|(2.22)|(2.71)|(2.09)|(2.38)|
|CPIA rating|0.486***|0.450***|0.387***|0.422***|0.402***|0.421***|0.390***|0.196**|0.346***|0.401***|0.171|0.178*|
||(5.59)|(5.16)|(4.42)|(4.81)|(3.98)|(4.79)|(4.43)|(2.13)|(3.51)|(4.40)|(1.40)|(1.69)|
|CPIA scale dummy|‐0.105|‐0.125|‐0.138|‐0.0852|‐0.0867|‐0.166|‐0.135|‐0.144|‐0.0706|‐0.114|‐0.0152|‐0.117|
||(‐0.66)|(‐0.77)|(‐0.85)|(‐0.53)|(‐0.45)|(‐1.02)|(‐0.83)|(‐0.88)|(‐0.24)|(‐0.65)|(‐0.04)|(‐0.38)|
|Exityear sequence|‐0.0232**|‐0.0227**|‐0.0245**|‐0.0193*|‐0.0271**|‐0.0218**|‐0.00916|‐0.0177|‐0.0164|‐0.0223**|0.00373|‐0.00609|
||(‐2.18)|(‐2.12)|(‐2.27)|(‐1.79)|(‐2.09)|(‐2.02)|(‐0.83)|(‐1.64)|(‐1.42)|(‐2.06)|(0.25)|(‐0.50)|
|East Asia and Pacific|0.145|0.180|0.237|0.200|0.148|0.249*|0.238|0.203|0.0316|0.152|0.129|0.164|
||(0.99)|(1.21)|(1.58)|(1.35)|(0.85)|(1.66)|(1.59)|(1.35)|(0.19)|(0.99)|(0.64)|(0.96)|
|Africa|‐0.353***|‐0.264**|‐0.0881|‐0.222*|‐0.105|‐0.205|‐0.160|‐0.203|‐0.414***|‐0.318**|‐0.00266|‐0.220|
||(‐2.76)|(‐2.04)|(‐0.67)|(‐1.71)|(‐0.67)|(‐1.58)|(‐1.22)|(‐1.55)|(‐2.82)|(‐2.38)|(‐0.01)|(‐1.44)|
|East Europe and Central Asia|0.137|0.203|0.411***|0.217|0.216|0.336**|0.373**|0.232|0.0269|0.180|0.279|0.288*|
||(0.95)|(1.40)|(2.74)|(1.49)|(1.25)|(2.27)|(2.51)|(1.57)|(0.17)|(1.20)|(1.41)|(1.73)|
|Latin America & Caribbean|0.209|0.289**|0.416***|0.297**|0.286*|0.325**|0.375***|0.392***|0.115|0.251*|0.329*|0.293*|
||(1.48)|(2.02)|(2.87)|(2.08)|(1.71)|(2.26)|(2.60)|(2.71)|(0.70)|(1.69)|(1.68)|(1.75)|
|Middle East & North Africa|‐0.235|‐0.195|‐0.0779|‐0.148|‐0.0666|‐0.138|‐0.128|‐0.147|‐0.369*|‐0.274|‐0.0322|‐0.194|
||(‐1.39)|(‐1.15)|(‐0.45)|(‐0.87)|(‐0.33)|(‐0.81)|(‐0.74)|(‐0.85)|(‐1.91)|(‐1.55)|(‐0.14)|(‐0.98)|
|IEG evaluation method(PPAR=1)|‐0.0816|0.0237|‐0.0172|0.0156|0.0580|‐0.0175|‐0.00280|0.0149|‐0.109|‐0.00408|‐0.0613|‐0.158|
||(‐0.80)|(0.23)|(‐0.16)|(0.15)|(0.49)|(‐0.17)|(‐0.03)|(0.14)|(‐0.93)|(‐0.04)|(‐0.45)|(‐1.32)|
|ERRpresent in both PAD & ICR||0.763***|0.670***|0.775***|0.741***|0.719***|0.691***|0.770***|0.677***|0.683***|0.558***|0.584***|
|||(7.11)|(6.17)|(7.21)|(6.00)|(6.65)|(6.38)|(7.09)|(5.45)|(6.12)|(3.87)|(4.62)|
|Lognet commit.(m$)|||0.239***<br>||||||||0.0233<br>|0.0857<br>|
||||(7.18)||||||||(0.37)|(1.63)|
|Project length||||‐0.0573***|||||||‐0.0341|‐0.0257|
|||||(‐2.82)|||||||(‐1.30)|(‐1.14)|
|TTLperformance|||||0.358***<br>||||||0.384***<br>||
||||||(7.32)||||||(6.69)||
|Preparation cost over commit, %||||||‐0.0638***|||||‐0.0309**|‐0.0289**|
|||||||(‐6.77)|||||(‐2.22)|(‐2.52)|
|Supervision cost over commit, %|||||||‐0.0596***||||‐0.0512***|‐0.0283**|
||||||||(‐7.84)||||(‐3.38)|(‐2.40)|
|Potentialprob. dummy (1=if raised in the 1rst half of theproj.)||||||||‐0.742***|||‐0.326***|‐0.280***|
|||||||||(‐8.74)|||(‐2.68)|(‐2.71)|
|Actualprob. dummy (1=if raised in the 1rst half of theproj.)|||||||||‐1.038***||‐0.849***|‐0.919***|
||||||||||(‐12.36)||(‐7.75)|(‐9.77)|
|Restructuringdummy (1=if restricted in the 1rst half of theproj.)||||||||||‐0.342**|0.0687|0.0378|
|||||||||||(‐2.23)|(0.35)|(0.22)|
|Observations|3962|3962|3962|3962|3050|3962|3961|3952|3443|3769|2661|3431|
|R squared|0.061|0.072|0.083|0.074|0.084|0.085|0.088|0.088|0.107|0.069|0.139|0.126|
|Sector dummies|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|
|Sector x evaluationperiod dummies|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|
|Sector x approvalperiod dummies|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|Y|

Note: t statistics in parentheses, * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 33