rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
uncertainty attached to cargo dwell time is substantial. As mentioned by Arvis _et al._ , it has a major impact on logistics costs because shippers need to compensate for this uncertainty by increasing inventory levels (Arvis _et al._ , 2010). Specificity for the port of Douala is that a multimodal shape is observed for shorter dwell times and this makes any attempt to fit the distribution by classical parametric distributions (Log-normal, Weibull, Gamma) unsuccessful<sup>15</sup> .

<!-- Start of picture text --> 5000<br>4000<br>3000<br>2000<br>1000<br>0<br>0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Graph 4 – Distribution of cargo dwell time in working days** (Source: CAMEROONIAN CUSTOMS, 2009, Values in unique containers, cargo destined to local consumption only)

#  **Minority of problematic shipments**

The shape of the distribution, with a higher concentration of observations in lower values, demonstrates that all containers are not affected by long dwell time in the same way. The quartile distribution (see graph 3) shows that a minority of containers (less than 25%) are affected indeed by very long dwell times while the lower 50% of the distribution have “acceptable” values that range between 0 and 14 days. The 10 days gap between median value and mean (see table 2) is quite substantial and shows that targeted policies on problematic segments (very long and abnormal delays) should be privileged. The highest fifteen values reported exceed 130 days and a number of containers are yet to be cleared from port after a stay of more than 200 days.

#  **Discretionary behavior**

An interesting feature of the distribution of cargo dwell times is the multimodality of the distribution (successive peaks) that shows evidence of discretionary cargo clearance behaviors (see graph 4). Possible explanations of the main peaks observed include: psychological threshold linked to expiration of the free time period (an interesting opportunity of free storage that shippers want to fully take advantage of), expiration of negotiated free time with NVOCCs (demurrage costs are most dissuasive in the first weeks) or negotiated objectives and application of penalties with brokers and

> 15 See Annex 2 for more details on statistical analysis. Analysis limited to containers destined to domestic market (import regime IM4).

11
|**Models/Approaches**|**Macroeconomic**<br>**Model**|**Linkage Variables**|**Specification of**<br>**Distribution**<br>|
|---|---|---|---|
||||**(Micro-Model)**|
|_1. PAMS I_|• Revised<br>minimum standard<br>model extended<br> (RMSM-X)|<br>• Growth rate of output<br>• Changes in sectoral wages<br>• Changes in disposable income<br>by group|• Unit record data|
|_2. PAMS II_|• Static CGE<br>model|• Changes in factor and<br>commodity prices<br>• Changes in employment<br>• Household-level real<br>consumption|• Unit record data<br>• Parameterized<br>Lorenz function|
|_3. 123PRSP_|• Financial<br>programming<br>model<br>• Growth models<br>• 123CGE model|• Changes in commodity prices<br>• Changes in incomes|• Unit record data<br>• Envelope model|
|_4. CGE-Microsimulation-1_|• Static CGE<br>model|• Changes in factor and<br>commodity prices<br>• Changes in incomes|• Unit record data<br>• Envelope model|
|_5. CGE-Microsimulation-2_|• Static CGE<br>model|• Changes in commodity prices<br>• Changes in incomes (wages and<br>self-employment income)<br>• Changes in employment by type<br>of occupation|• Unit record data<br>• Household<br>income and<br>occupational<br>choice models|
|_6. IS-LM Microsimulation-2_|• IS-LM model|• Changes in commodity prices<br>• Changes in incomes (wages and<br>self-employment income)<br>• Changes in employment by type<br>of occupation|• Unit record data<br>• Household<br>income and<br>occupational<br>choice models|
|_7. IMMPA_|• Dynamic CGE<br>model with a<br>financial sector|• Real growth rates in per capita<br>consumption and disposable<br>income for six representative<br>households|• Unit record data|

The last approach links a macroeconomic model to a distribution model in a topdown fashion. All the models reviewed fall within the class of policy models. The specification of such models is dictated by the issues at stake, the knowledge about the nature of the process involved, and the availability and reliability of relevant data. It is impossible to provide, in the context of an overview like this one, enough implementation details for each model under consideration. However, an effort has been made to include a long list of relevant references, as well as boxes describing examples of the approaches.

6
<!-- Start of picture text --> Control Treatment<br>©<br>©<br>a<br>oit} 2 4 & 8 0 2 4 6 8<br>Pr(overdraft facility policy)<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Control Treatment<br>w7<br>S<br>Fy@$<br>w<br>o<br>‘il 2 Pe] 4 os 4 2 3 4 4<br>Pr(overdraft facility policy)<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Control Treatment<br>©<br>©<br>a<br>o it} 2 4 § 8 0 ea) 4 & 8<br>Pr(overdraft facility policy)<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Control Treatment<br>onN<br>»<br>2Boa2<br>w<br>o<br>4 2 3 44 2 3 4<br>Pr(overdraft facility policy)<br><!-- End of picture text -->
-103-

- C.L. Gilbert (1982), "Short-Cut Methods of Estimating Per Capita GDP and Tentative Results on the Distribution and Growth of Real GDP", Oxford Economic Par,ers, November.

- M. Gilbert and W. Beckerman (1961), "International Comparison of Real Product and Productivity by Final Expenditures and by Industry", in NBER, Output, Input and Productivity Measurement, New York.

- M. Gilbert and I.B. Kravis (1954), An International Comparison of National Products and the Purchasing Power of Currencies, OEEC, Paris.

- M. Gilbert and Associates (.958), Comparative National Products and Price Levels, OEEC, Paris.

- F.M. Gollop and D.W. Jorgenson (1980), "US Productivity Growth by Industry 1947-1973" in J.W. Kendrick and B.N. Vaccara, eds. New Developments in Productivity Measurement and Analysis, University of Chicago Press.

- Gosplan (1965), Sopostavlennie Urovnei Ekonomicheskovo Razvitia Sotsialisticheskikh Stran, Moscow.

- P. Guinchard (1984), "Productivite et Competitivit6 des Grands Pays Industriels", Economie et Statistique, January.

- M.A. de Gusmao Veloso (1987), "Brazilian National Accounts 1947-1985", IBGE, Rio, August.

- B.D. Haig (1966), Real Product, Income and Relative Prices in Australia and the United Kingdom, ANU, Canberra.

- A. Houben (1988), "An International Comparison of Real Output, Labour Productivity and Purchasing Power in the Mineral Industries in the United States, Brazil and Mexico for 1975", University of Groningen, M.A. Thesis, processed.

- IBGE (1981a), Censo Industrial: Brasw1, Serie Nacional, Vol. 2, Part I, Rio.

- IBGE (1981b), Censo Industrial: Brasil, Producao Fisica, Serie Nacional, Vol. 2, Part 2, Rio.

IBGE (1983), Censo Demografico: Mao de Obra, Vol. 1, Tomo 5, No. 1, Rio IBGE (1984), Censo Industrial: Dados Gerais: Brasil, Vol. 3, Tomo 2, Rio. ILO (1976) International Recommendations on Labour Statistics, Geneva. INEGI (1985), Estadisticas Historicas de Mexico, Mexico.

Japan Productivity Center (1984), Measuring Productivity, UNIPUB, New York.

- Joint Economic Committee (1981), East European Economic Assessment, US Congress, Washington DC, 1981.

- Joint Economic Committee (1982), USSR: Measures of Economic Growth and Development, 1950-1980, US Congress, Washington DC.
# **LATIN AMERICA AND THE SOCIAL CONTRACT:**

**PATTERNS OF SOCIAL SPENDING AND TAXATION**

**Karla Breceda Jamele Rigolini Jaime Saavedra**<sup>**1**</sup>

> 1 The World Bank. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries they represent. Contact author: Jamele Rigolini, Email: jrigolini@worldbank.org.
# **Figure 1: Use of SEBRAE services over time**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 0 5 10 15 20<br>Month relative to intervention<br>Any information sheet Control<br>95% confidence intervals<br>.5<br>.4<br>.3<br>.2<br>.1<br>0<br>Cumulative fraction with any SEBRAE service<br><!-- End of picture text --> 16
securities. In addition, if the market appetite for a type of security is expected to increase in the future, this is reflected through the increasing issuance amounts over time, within the decision horizon.

The strategy alternatives are chosen to ensure that each alternative represents a specific policy direction (with a story behind it) that can be pursued by DMs. Some of the alternatives tested previously include strategies with regard to ―cost minimization,‖ ―moderate risk reduction,‖ ―currency risk reduction,‖ ―ambitious risk reduction,‖ and ―maintain current profile.‖ Alternatives based solely on a single borrowing instrument are also tested to identify the different cost and risk characteristics of the securities (for example, 100% CPI-indexed bonds vs. 100% floating-rate notes). The strategy alternatives are designed by plugging in the appropriate weights in the financing strategy vector, described in section 4.3. For example, weights of local currency instruments are increased in the vector to develop a ―currency risk reduction‖ strategy.

# **5.3 Runs and Analysis of Results**

Following the creation of simulation paths and selection of alternative strategies to be tested, TDSM then calculates the cash flows associated with each strategy. This module also compiles summary statistics (mean, conditional-at-risk values for different percentiles, etc.) of the distributions for these strategies with respect to the measures discussed in Section 3.1. The future levels of debt structure metrics discussed in Section 3.3 is calculated for each strategy tested. As the model is capable of producing interest and principal payments and future debt stock levels for each strategy under each simulation path, other cost and risk indicators can easily be calculated.

Each alternative strategy following a different policy direction is then numerically presented in terms of the debt structure metrics. For example, the share of local debt will be higher for a ―currency risk reduction‖ strategy compared to a ―maintain current profile‖ strategy. Debt structure metrics for alternative strategies is then reported to senior management together with the expected cost and risk levels of these strategies for each year in the decision horizon. An illustrative result for the distribution of cash-based interest costs under 5,000 simulation paths for a strategy tested is presented in Graph 2.

31
import protection – i.e., between a policy-imposing economy and a particular trading partner. This bilateral emphasis is important given the discriminatory (i.e., trading partner-specific) nature of import protection.<sup>4</sup> Third, we construct our trade barrier measures at the quarterly frequency and use quarterly macroeconomic data. This allows us to better address the relationship between business cycles, exchange rates, and import restrictions and capture the precise timing of any trade policy changes taking place during the Great Recession.<sup>5</sup> The rest of the paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 presents the predictions of the theoretical literature on temporary trade barrier policies such as antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties, the empirical model, and the panel dataset that is used to estimate the model. Section 3 presents our basic results regarding the relationship between trade restrictions and macroeconomic fluctuations based on historical data leading up to the Great Recession. Section 4 analyzes the import protection response after the onset of the worldwide financial crisis. Section 5 concludes.

# **2. Theory, Empirical Model and Data**

# **2.1. Theoretical models of temporary trade barriers and macroeconomic shocks**

A large theoretical literature examines the role of temporary trade barriers in international agreements such as the GATT and WTO. Nevertheless, despite substantial research documenting the countercyclical nature of business cycles and import protection dating back to at least the Great Depression (Irwin, 2011a,b), there is not one universal theory linking imposition of new import restrictions to macroeconomic shocks. Bagwell and Staiger (2003), Crowley (2010) and Knetter and Prusa (2003) are the theoretical contributions that inform our basic empirical approach.

4 Antidumping is explicitly a bilateral policy. Although it was often imposed simultaneously on multiple foreign trading partners in the 1980s and 1990s (see Hansen and Prusa, 1996), there is less evidence of this more recently (e.g., Bown, 2010).

5 Other papers on trade policy during the Great Recession include Kee, Neagu and Nicita’s (forthcoming) study of Overall Trade Restrictiveness Indices, Gawande, Hoekman and Cui’s (2011) examination of applied MFN tariffs for emerging economies, Bown’s (2011a) work on TTB measurement and trade policy churning, and economy-specific case studies by Prusa (2011), Vandenbussche and Viegelahn (2011), Ludema and Mayda (2011) and Kang and Park (2011).

5
- 14 -

strong across countries. As shown in Figure 2 and Table 1, the countries with larger numbers of workers abroad also tend to have larger remittances, the only exception being Algeria. Of course, the relation is not strictly proportional. There are significant differences between per capita remittances across countries, whether remittances are divided by the number of workers abroad or total population abroad. Excluding Algeria from the comparison, average yearly remittances per worker during the 1977-89 period ranged from US$2,700 in the case of Turkey to US$4,200 in the case of Morocco. Average yearly remittances per total population ranged from US$1,100 in the case of Turkey to US$2,200 in the case of Portugal.9 Per capita remittances to Algeria are considerably lower. These differences in per capita remittances may be partly due to noise in the migration data. The number of unregistered migrants may vary significantly across countries and over time. However, they also reflect differences in the length of stay and many other factors. Consider first differences in the length of stay. Although most of the registered migrant workers arrived in Western Europe before 1977, there are still significant differences in the length of stay. The very low level of remittances per worker in the case of Algeria is partly explained by the relatively old history of Algerian migration to France. The same is true for Turkey: although the number of Turkish workers continued to grow after 1977, most of Turkish migrants had arrived in Europe well before that year. By contrast, the Moroccan and Tunisian migration are relatively recent. That can partly explain the high level of remittances per worker in the two countries.

9 These figures imply monthly per capita remittances of US$250--350 when measured by the number of workers abroad, and of US$100-200 when measured by total population abroad. These orders of magnitude seem reasonable, especially considering the income earned by wives and other family members through informal jobs.
58 individuals. Together they cover 83 percent of all the individuals insured in an autonomous pension fund. Concerning the absolute number of institutions within the group of nonautonomous institutions, the _institutions for one employer_ are very prevalent with a share of 63 percent per fund, but since this administrative form only insures a modest number of individuals, its importance is limited compared to the 903,320 insured individuals in the _collective–institutions_ (which equals 75 percent of total insured in non–autonomous funds). The latter group also constitutes the largest pool of members.

**Table 17  Administrative Form and Risk Coverage in 2002**

|Pension Funds|Autonomous|Autonomous<br>(with<br>reinsurance)|Semi-<br>autonomous|Non-<br>Autonomous|Savings<br>associations|Total|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Collective-Institution|1%|2%|5%|6%|0%|126|
|# Members|0%|4%|45%|75%|0%|1,152,448|
|Common-Institution|4%|7%|2%|6%|0%|130|
|# Members|8%|45%|27%|16%|0%|615,849|
|Mixed Form|17%|5%|0%|1%|0%|115|
|# Members|48%|6%|0%|0%|0%|576,975|
|Institutions of firms,|||||||
|holdings|||||||
|or mother companies|41%|38%|21%|15%|16%|804|
|<br># Members|35%|27%|13%|5%|42%|659,576|
|Institutions<br>of|||||||
|another|||||||
|pooling reason|6%|8%|11%|8%|10%|288|
|# Members|1%|3%|3%|1%|3%|43,923|
|Institution for one|32%|40%|61%|64%|74%|1,707|
|employer|||||||
|# Members|8%|15%|13%|3%|55%|262,607|
|Total|457|583|1,404|620|106|3,170|
|# Members|1,143,142|450,479|504,291|1,205,320|8,146|3,311,378|

Source: Bundesamt für Statistik (2004b), p.34, T9 Table 15 has shown that the number of pension funds with active contributors has decreased by 33 percent from 1994 to 2002, indicating a consolidation and reallocation process of the whole pension fund industry. Potential explanation is a shift in the choice of administrative form and risk coverage. The only funds that increased the number of covered individuals were the autonomous funds with reinsurance and the non–autonomous funds (Table 16), i.e., both funds that hand over at least part of the risk to another party. Table 18 documents the relocation within the administrative forms. Employers have become more likely to join collective–institutions and common–institutions (often organized by professional associations). From 1994 to 2002, their respective share has increased by 15 percent and 19 percent, respectively. On the other hand, employers have become more reluctant to organize the pension fund “in–house.” Several possible reasons explain the outsourcing of occupational old–age provision. First, outsourcing reduces the administrative efforts of employers. Second, large institutions
This paper is innovative both conceptually and empirically. The conceptual innovation is that it is the first global trade model to numerically assess regional liberalization of barriers to foreign direct investors in services and to assess barriers against both domestic and multinational service providers. Given the importance of services in trade costs, we retain all seven business services sectors from the GTAP 8.1 database and ten services sectors overall.

The paper builds on the following four databases, the first two of which have not been used before in a general equilibrium model: (i) services barriers--for this project, the authors developed a new database of the ad valorem equivalents of barriers in eleven business services sectors in 103 countries, based on the newly released World Bank survey information on these 11 sectors in 103 countries; (ii) trade facilitation—the paper employs the database recently posted on the GTAP website entitled, “The Value of Time in Trade: GTAP Database of AVEs for Estimating the Impacts of Swift Customs Clearance and Shipping V8.1,” by Peter Minor based on work of David Hummels; (iii) for foreign affiliate sales-- “Global Database of Foreign Affiliate Sales” by Fukui and Lakatos; and (iv) estimates of the ad valorem equivalents of nontariff measures by Kee, Nicita and Olarreaga (2008; 2009). Although a central finding of the studies by Hummels, Minor and their co-authors is that the AVE of time in trade varies across products, most computable general equilibrium modeling of trade facilitation issues have used a single AVE across all products. By basing our estimates on the work of Hummels and Minor, we improve on the sector accuracy of the benefits of trade facilitation. For example, we find that the agriculture sector in Uganda expands relative to other sectors in Uganda when there are improvements in trade facilitation.

In recent years, the East African Customs Union (EACU) has initiated several steps at deep integration. In particular, the EACU is moving to improve trade facilitation, reduce nontariff barriers and reduce barriers to foreign providers of services within the EACU.<sup>6</sup> There are also other deep integration initiatives being negotiated in Sub-Saharan Africa, including the Tripartite Free Trade Area being negotiated among the East African Customs Union (EACU), the Common Market of East and Southern Africa (COMESA) and South African Development Community (SADC). We assess these initiatives and compare the results to broader multilateral liberalization by the EACU.

> 6 The World Bank (2012) has argued that regional integration in the East African Community is a promising path that would lead to the reduction of barriers that increase trade costs among the member countries of the EACU.

3
TABLE 18 Responses of Potential Growth to Banking Crises and Epidemics (Other Measures)

|**Definition of otential**||**B**|**anking cris**|**es**||**Epidemics**||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**p**<br>**output**|**h**|**World**|**AEs**|**EMDEs**|**World**|**AEs**|**EMDEs**|
||0|0.046|0.093**|-0.046|-0.081|-0.105|-0.062|
||1|-0.33**|-0.144|-0.753***|-0.005|-0.148*|0.179|
|**Etti CF**|2|-0.192|-0.163|-0.266|0.077|-0.082|0.275**|
|**xpecaons ()**|3|-0.094|0.186|-0.632***|-0.056|-0.142**|0.027|
||4|-0.212*|-0.102|-0.4|0.003|-0.063|0.082|
||5|-0.285*|-0.161|-0.5|-0.104|-0.141|-0.039|
||0|-0.132**|-0.229***|0.113|0.065**|0.163***|-0.01|
||1|-0.177|-0.431***|0.456|0.297***|0.546***|0.104|
||2|0.002|-0.39|0.979|0.499***|0.878***|0.199|
|**Hodrick-Prescott filter**|3|0.258|-0.224|1.453*|0.554***|1.037***|0.17|
||4|0.497|-0.006|1.747*|0.509**|1.097***|0.042|
||5|0.761*|0.299|1.913*|0.456*|1.146***|-0.124|
||0|-0.485***|-0.53***|-0.253|-0.451***|-0.444***|-0.421***|
||1|-1.034***|-1.365***|-0.005|-0.396***|-0.21|-0.513**|
|**Christiano-Fitzgerald**|2|-1.096***|-1.612***|0.338|0.032|0.284|-0.151|
|**filter**|3|-0.757|-1.481***|1.181|0.364|0.673**|0.12|
||4|-0.344|-1.083**|1.512|0.214|0.57*|-0.086|
||5|0.166|-0.501|1.825|0.604**|1.091***|0.174|
||0|-2.288***|-2.64***|-1.31*|-0.666***|-0.739**|-0.614***|
||1|-3.877***|-4.73***|-1.525|0.415|0.492|0.341|
|**Baxter-Kin filter**|2|-2.149***|-2.975***|0.125|0.677**|0.833**|0.539|
|**g**|3|-0.921|-1.768***|1.427|0.173|0.428|-0.031|
||4|-1.198**|-1.993***|1.001|0.02|0.407|-0.284|
||5|-0.875*|-1.59***|1.114|0.249|0.88*|-0.269|
||0|-0.899***|-0.739***|-0.597|-0.45|0.03|-0.553*|
||1|-1.382***|-1.429***|-0.515|0.196|0.665***|0.116|
|**Bh fil**|2|-0.892**|-1.085***|0.249|0.295|0.876***|0.095|
|**utterwort ter**|3|-0.476|-0.745**|0.782|0.117|0.803***|-0.204|
||4|-0.212|-0.619*|1.073|0.214|0.809***|-0.164|
||5|0.117|-0.278|1.262|0.212|0.922**|-0.318|

Sources: Laeven and Valencia 2018; World Bank.

Note: *** indicates significance at the 1 percent level, ** at the 5 percent level, and

- at the 10 percent level. Sample includes unbalanced panel of 33 advanced economies and 98 EMDEs for 1981-2020.

64
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