rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
34 Table 4: Welfare Reduction Index, all covered products, 19 African focus countries, 1961–64 to 2000–04 (percent)

||1961–64|1965–69|1970–74|1975–79|1980–84|1985–89|1990–94|1995–99|2000–04|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Africa**|**49**|**46**|**45**|**44**|**39**|**45**|**40**|**28**|**27**|
|Benin|na|na|9|6|7|4|8|7|4|
|Burkina Faso|na|na|9|13|14|5|9|9|9|
|Cameroon|9|14|17|29|22|12|11|10|4|
|Chad|na|na|24|23|20|5|9|8|6|
|Côte d'Ivoire|28|36|36|40|38|30|25|25|31|
|Ethiopia|na|na|na|na|22|24|27|20|16|
|Ghana|17|30|28|44|49|36|17|11|15|
|Kenya|35|39|29|34|38|28|35|26|29|
|Madagascar|23|27|26|43|55|37|21|11|13|
|Mali|na|na|16|20|18|8|13|14|9|
|Mozambique|na|na|na|63|52|63|18|18|41|
|Nigeria|87|78|68|54|45|63|48|36|31|
|Senegal|17|15|38|41|36|50|55|11|16|
|Sudan|36|40|51|40|40|65|79|42|44|
|Tanzania|na|na|na|58|65|62|53|46|38|
|Togo|na|na|4|5|9|5|10|8|5|
|Uganda|6|9|20|35|24|24|4|4|4|
|Zambia|26|41|47|57|31|69|58|39|42|
|Zimbabwe|39|45|50|56|46|42|46|40|72|

Source: Anderson and Croser (2009) based on NRA and CTE data in Anderson and Valenzuela (2008).
Policy Research Working Paper 10626

# **Abstract**

Hidden hunger, or micronutrient deficiencies, is a serious public health issue affecting approximately 2 billion people worldwide. Identifying areas with high prevalence of hidden hunger is crucial for targeted interventions and effective resource allocation. However, conventional methods such as nutritional assessments and dietary surveys are expensive and time-consuming, rendering them unsustainable for developing countries. This study proposes an alternative approach to estimating the prevalence of hidden hunger at the commune level in Madagascar by combining data from the household budget survey and the Demographic and Health Survey. The study employs small area estimation techniques to borrow strength from the recent census and produce precise and accurate estimates at the lowest administrative level. The findings reveal that 17.9 percent of stunted children reside in non-poor households, highlighting the ineffectiveness of using poverty levels as a targeting tool for identifying stunted children. The findings also show that 21.3 percent of non-stunted children live in impoverished households, reinforcing Sen’s argument that malnutrition is not solely a product of destitution. These findings emphasize the need for tailored food security interventions designed for specific geographical areas with clustered needs rather than employing uniform nutrition policies. The study concludes by outlining policies that are appropriate for addressing various categories of hidden hunger.

This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at fmulangu@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
In all four datasets the distribution of Wi⁄Ci is skewed to the right and has a clear mode around 0.5. There are outliers. This supports our use of the median instead of the mean.<sup>14</sup> We first consider the effects of the adjustment for the disutility of casual manual work on measures of poverty and inequality based on the post-NREGS distributions.<sup>15</sup> Table 3 summarizes the joint distribution of Ci and Ci∗. Given that there is a higher incidence of casual manual work in the poorer segments of the population, it is to be expected that the lower part of the distribution is more impacted by the consumption adjustment. Our adjustment for the disutility of work has an impact on measured poverty and inequality. Figures 3 and 4 show respectively the cumulative distribution functions and the corresponding Lorenz curves.<sup>16</sup> As is evident in Figure 3, we do not have first-order dominance, so the ranking in terms of any standard measure of poverty will depend on the precise measure used and the poverty line (Atkinson, 1987). Poverty measures are higher under our adjustment for the disutility of work up to about the median.

Table 4 gives the impacts of our adjustment on the H, PG and SPG indices for all four data sets. We give results for both the median and the quantile of the 40<sup>th</sup> percentile. Recall that the distributions are automatically balanced in their means, so here we are measuring the effects on poverty at a given mean, interpretable as the “distributional component” of the poverty measure (Datt and Ravallion, 1992). Notice that the adjusted the H index is actually lower than for unadjusted consumption when using the median as the poverty line. This reverses when we switch to PG and SPG. In the all-India NSS sample, and using the median as the poverty line, the PG index rises from 13.7% to 17.4%, while the SPG index rises from 5.2% to 9.9%. Using a poverty line at the 40<sup>th</sup> percentile, the SPG index more than doubles from 3.6% to 8.4%. The changes were similar for the other datasets.

Inequality is unambiguously higher after our adjustment for the disutility of work (Figure 4). In order to quantify this increase in inequality, we report in Table 5 the corresponding Gini

> 14 The standard deviation is higher for the Bihar Survey sample as a whole and the sub-sample for un-rationed households only, which can be explained by the fact that we include more heterogeneous types of casual work in the definition of  Li , suggesting a higher variance in wages.

> 15 Recall that we can only measure the net gains due to the program using the specially-designed World Bank Bihar survey. Thus we can only derive pre-NREGS consumptions for that dataset.

> 16 Here and elsewhere we use household weights (expansion factors) to assure that the sample-based calculations are representative of the population in the base year.

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(indirect) oil subsidies shrunk to $35 million and in 1986 they disappeared altogether. Whereas in 1985 all petroleum product ex-refinery prices were below world prices (that was true even if one compares retail prices with world prices), by 1986 gasoline and gas oil exrefinery prices exceeded world prices by 50 and 25 percent, respectively (local prices increasing, in spite of the decline in world prices; Table 14). The only petroleum products still subsidized by December 1986 were kerosene and LPG (whose prices were 70 percent of the world price).

Table **14.** Economic and Ex-refinery Prices of Petroleum Products, 1985-86

|||Premnium<br>gasoline|Regular<br>gasoline|Gas<br>oil|Kero-<br>sene|LPG|Jet<br>fuel|Indus-<br>trial<br>diesel|Inland<br>fuel<br>oil|Residual<br>fuel<br>oil|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Au**|**gust-Novenber 198**|**5**|||||||||
|_CIF_|_import cost_||||||||||
||1. $/M.T.|280|265|246|267|230|267|223|176|168|
||2. C/gl|96.8|89.1|89.8|98.2|10.5|98.2|85.0|73.9|71.8|
|3.|Ex-refinery price<br>(C/gl)|90.5|76.0|53.6|42.2|6.2|67.1|52.6|39.4|37.5|
|4.|Difference (C/gl)<br>[3. - 2.]|-6.3|-13.1|-36.2|-56.0|-4.3|-31.1|-32.4|-34.5|-34.3|
|_5._|Tax (C/gl)|3.4|12.9|20.3|1.6|0.3|12.9|17.4|13.7|2.5|
|**Sep**|**tember 1986**||||||||||
|_CIF_|_import cost_||||||||||
||6. $/M.T.|171|156|154|163|200|163|135|96|89|
||7. C/gl|59.0|52.4|56.2|59.9|9.1|59.9|53.0|40.3|38.0|
|8.|Ex-refinery price<br>(C/gl)|86.7|83.3|70.0|42.7|6.2|80.0|61.3|43.0|40.0|
|9.|Difference (C/gl)||||||||||
||[8. - 7.]|27.7|30.9|13.8|-17.2|-2.9|20.1|8.3|2.7|2.0|
|10.|Tax (C/gl)|4.0|4.0|7.3|1.3|0.7|10.0|5.3|3.7|3.3|

Source: UNDP / World Bank (1986)Lines 1, 2, 6, 7: Table 2.2, p. 22; lines 3, 5, 8, 10: Table 2.1, p. 20. Taxes include the special and the energy find.

In the period September 1986 to April 1988 world prices resumed their climb, while local ex-refinery prices (given the free market exchange rate) declined in U.S. dollar terms. By April 1988 ex-refinery prices in Ghana (at the free market exchange rate) of gasoline and
Participation Rates? The Role of Male Attitudes toward Family and Sex Roles.’’ Claremont Colleges Working Papers (03/2003), Department of Economics, Claremont McKenna College, Claremont, CA.

Araújo, Clara, and Celi Scalon. 2005. ‘‘Genero, familia e trabalho no Brasil’’ [Gender, family and work in Brasil]. In Clara Araújo and Celi Scalon, eds., Editora da fundação o getulio vargas [Editors from Getulio Vargas Foundation], 1st ed. Rio de Janeiro: Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Baker, M., J. Gruber, and K. Milligan. 2008. “Universal Childcare, Maternal Labor Supply, and Family Well-Being.” _Journal of Political Economy_ 116: 709–45.

Berlinski, S., S. Galiani, and P. MacEwan. 2011. “Preschool and Materal Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design.” _Economic Development and Cultural Change_ 59 (2): 313–44.

Berlinski, S., and S. Galiani. 2007. “The Effect of a Large Expansion of Pre-primary School Facilities on Preschool Attendance and Maternal Employment.” _Labour Economics_ 14: 665–80.

Bellei, C. 2009. “Does Lengthening the School Day Increase Students’ Academic Achievement? Results from a Natural Experiment in Chile.” _Economics of Education Review_ 28 (5): 629–40.

Berthelon, M., and D. Kruger. 2011. “Risky Behavior among Youth: Incapacitation Effects of School on Adolescent Motherhood and Crime in Chile.” _Journal of Public Economics_ 95 (1–2): 41–53.

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and the cost of inducing precautionary effort by the seller. In their contract, the upfront payment decreases as the incentives for the seller to breach the contract increases due to high opportunity costs or low levels on contract enforcement. They conclude that an optimal contract determines the per unit prices of the offset based on outside factors that influence the seller’s future opportunity costs, such as agricultural prices. Further, they conclude that switching the liability of impermanent offsets from buyer to seller, or sharing the liability increases efficiency of the contract.

In line with the conclusions from McKenzie et al. (2010), Engel et al. (2011) develop different payment mechanisms for contracts that vary with external factors, where the objective is to reduce the risk of landholders converting land to alternative uses given changes in opportunity costs. They believe that due to increased pressures on land for agricultural production and population pressures, the payment plans in a REDD project need to be able to adapt to these changing demands, and properly incentivize landholders to abide by the conservation standards stipulated in the contract. Thus, they propose a different type of payment scheme that includes a per hectare fixed payment, which is commonly used, and a variable per hectare payment based on an agricultural commodity index or current carbon prices. They simulate their model for a period of 30 years using data on commodity prices and carbon prices to index the variable payments with a probability of forest permanence greater than 90 percent.

In their simulations, Engel et al. (2011) find that as the volatility in the opportunity cost of alternative land uses, which is based on soy prices, increases, the probability of converting forests to agriculture decreases, along with the per hectare cost of the project. In this case, the most efficient payment schedule would include lower fixed payments and higher variable payments, where the average cost for the project is US$2200 per hectare. When carbon prices 41
households in transition economies should not be a surprise, given the relatively stringent conditions needed for Ricardian equivalence to hold: perfect capital markets, consumption smoothing behavior, intergenerational concerns, and no distorting effects of taxes, among others (also see Barro 1974; Briotti, 2005). We look into selected aspects of the non-Ricardian behavior in Macedonia in comparison with Slovakia.

First, less efficient and complete financial markets in Macedonia relative to Slovakia reduce the availability of financial instruments to offset the anticipated future changes in fiscal policy (see Table 7). Poor competition in the banking sector, underdeveloped government debt markets, limited financial deepening and sophistication, and external capital restrictions might have reduced incentives to save rather than consume the extra household income as a result of increased government spending, and increased liquidity constraints which prevent effective consumption smoothing.

**<u>Table 7: Capital market development indicators</u>**

||2003|2004<br>Slov|2005<br>akia|2006|2003|2004<br>Mace|2005<br>donia|2006|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|as % of GDP|||||||||
|Stock market capitalization|8.4|10.5|9.3|10.1|7.8|7.7|11.1|17.7|
|Government securities, outstanding|32.5|32.1|28.0|26.3|14.4|13.6|16.1|15.7|
|S&P Rating|A-|A-|A|A|BB|BB|BB+|BB+|
|Non-bank financial institutions<br>reforms,EBRD index|2.7|2.7|2.7|3.0|1.7|2.0|2.0|2.3|

_Source_ : Stock market capitalization from WDI, Government securities outstanding – author calculations based on the Ministry of Finance and Central bank data, S&P rating from Standard&Poor’s sovereign ratings; Index of reform of non-bank financial institutions from EBRD Transition Indicators.

Second, poverty is more prevalent in Macedonia, making the affected people consume more or all of their disposable incomes while leaving less of it for savings. Around a fifth of Macedonia population is absolutely poor (World Bank, 2005). Since comparable poverty data for Slovakia are not readily available, an indirect illustration can be drawn from relative per capita incomes and income inequality. Namely, in 2006, Macedonia’s per capita GNI at PPP was USD7850, significantly below Slovak’s GNI per capita at PPP of USD17060, also the GINI indexes were 39.0 in 2003 for Macedonia, and 25.8 in 1996 for Slovakia.<sup>15</sup>

> 15 World Bank estimates “Distribution of Income or consumption 2.7”. More recent data are not available.

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- 16-

gross wages in 1987-1 990.7 On the other hand, the Superintendency of AFPs published a weighted average of the initial prices paid by AFPs in these insurance contracts. This was 1.06% of covered wages for June 1992, which should be close to the 28.800 billion pesos spent buying group invalidity and survivorship insurance for the affiliates. Taken literally, these numbers suggest that a charge of 0.22% of covered wages _is_ present. Multiplying by an average contribution of 25.0 dollars per month per effective contributor (which is discussed in more detail below), we obtain an additional charge of 6.7 dollars per year in invalidity and survivors insurance per effective contributor.

# The Structure of actual Charges by **AFPs**

We present also the charges actually seen by the user of the AFP system. In - the Chilean pension system there have been three types of commissions allowed since its inception in 1980. One of them was prohibited by law in January 1988. Their average annual levels are summarized in Table 3: Table 4 _Average Commissions Charged by Private Pension Fund Managers in Chile to Dependent Workers that Coneribute, 1987-1992_

|Year|_*T_<br>(A)<br>Monthly<br>Lump sum<br>(Ch.S of Dec. 1990)|_yne_<br>of co<br>(B)<br>"Additional"<br>(% of taxable<br>salary)|(C)<br>"Percentage"<br>(annual % of<br>outsL balance)|Tmission<br>Ztal<br>(A+B+C)<br>(Total Cost for<br>Average affiliate*<br>(%.of tax. salary)|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|1987<br>|324<br>|3.39<br>|0.33|4.06<br>|
|_1988_<br>|356<br>|_3.56_<br>|_-_|3.93<br>|
|_1989_<br>|_245_<br>|3.25<br>||3.48<br>|
|1990|189|2.99||3.22|
|Sept 1992|<br>128|2.94||3.09|

Average affiiatc is a contributor defined w have a monthly taxable income of Ch.S 84.500 (12

> U.F.) which is the average of the system for 1990. He has an outstanding balance derived from a 10% contribution rate, continuous participation since the beginning of the system and no growth in the real wage. The increase in the outstanding balance does't influence total cost since 1988. when that conmission was banned.

Sources: Habitat (1991) up to 1990. averaging AFPs according to their number of affiliates; For September 1992, SAFP Bulletin N' 110 for September 1992 averaging AFPs according to their number of contributors in March 1992.

- 7 This is confirmed with a different method. The ratio of premium paid for reinsurance of the invalidity and survivors' risk to commission income in 1991. was 31.23 %. Therefore. applying this to the 3.09% commrion ra, we get 0.965 % for insuran premia. not far from the 0.84%. These costs are expected to at least double as the work force ages.
LPG cylinders for cooking (Inter-Sector Coordination Group, 2019). The LPG program has reduced refugees’ dependence on forests for fuelwood extraction. However, there is still an increasing demand for bamboo extraction (a forest product) for shelter construction. According to local sources, bamboo for refugee shelters is predominantly sourced from the nearby Chittagong region, but is now also supplied from other regions in Bangladesh.

Although Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar benefitted from relatively unconstrained mobility prior to 2017, the recent population influx has led the Government of Bangladesh to impose stricter policies regarding refugee movements. Presently, the Rohingya refugees are compelled to stay in the camps, a policy that has become increasingly enforced with the introduction of fencing and road checkpoints. They are also denied access to public facilities, including access to school, and are not allowed to seek employment to generate income (Tani & Rahman, 2018). Consequently, an overwhelming majority (73 percent) of Rohingya refugees reported having “no interaction” with members of the host communities, according to a 2019 survey report. Among those who interact, 17 percent was casual interaction, and only 1 percent was work-related interactions (Inter-Sector Coordination Group, 2019).

However, a recent study highlighted rapid growth in business activities in Cox’s Bazar since the 2017 arrival of forcibly displaced Rohingyas. The study concluded that both local Bangladeshis and Rohingya refugees have access to a diverse variety of well-functioning businesses inside and outside (only for Rohingya with legal work permit) the camps, including trade, services, manufacturing, among others. They also found increasing evidence of “businessto-business and business-to-customer interactions between the owners, suppliers, workers, and clients of both Rohingya and Bangladeshi communities” (Filipski, Rosenbach, Tiburcio, Dorosh, & Hoddinott, 2020).

# **4. Data**

## **4.1 Geospatial Data**

This analysis primarily uses remotely sensed data/images captured by the Landsat satellite, operated by the US Geological Survey (USGS).<sup>6</sup> The image selection considers potential

> 6 We present details on the data sources and descriptions in the Appendix A1.4. To obtain this table please contact the corresponding author.

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# **7 APPENDIX: EMPIRICAL APPROACH**

# **I. Specifications and Estimation**

Our analyses and empirical results therein rely on multiple model specifications and estimations. These are discussed sequentially, in what follows. The broader aim is to devise tractable empirical frameworks that allow us to explore several aspects of the social protection schemes. Depending on the section and availability of our data sets, either panel or cross-sectional regressions are estimated. In section 3, we estimate panel regressions linking either poverty status or consumption expenditure ��� in household _i_ in year _t_ to extreme shock variables ��� conditional on time and household level fixed effects: Our key parameter of interest is β. This provides an estimate of the damaging effect of extreme shocks on a vector of relevant outcomes including household consumption expenditures; and poverty standing. The specifications include household �� and year �� fixed effects to soak up potential heterogeneity that is fixed across time and macro changes that are fixed across households, respectively.<sup>18</sup> We control for potential trends in households consumption expenditures and poverty levels using a linear time trend ����� in two possible ways: (i) common to all households (ii) or allowed to vary by agro ecological zones. The latter is informed by one of our findings suggesting asymmetric shock effects on household outcomes along the dimension of eco-zones. The baseline model is estimated simultaneously across the 5 Nigerien ecological zones.

We modify the panel specification above. Denote by _z_ an ecological zone, containing households. Social protection and support data sets are only available for 2014/2015. So, in section 4, we combine both social protection and household shocks records to estimate the following regression model: ��� � �� �β������β������ �SPTime����γSPTime�� ����

> 18 Households are different based on their vulnerabilities. Our inclusion of household level fixed effects allows us to control for such heterogeneity.

41