# Results

There is a risk that NTL growth depends on the size of displaced population relative to the total settlement population, we therefore test the robustness of our results by first accounting for the average net influx of displaced person, as a share of settlement population. That is, we first replace our main independent variable _Net Inflow_ by the variable A I , representing the cumulative net inflow of persons as a share of population in settlement (see <u>Section 4.1</u> for descriptive statistics). The linear regression following equation (3) is are displayed in column 1 of Table NNAATTAANN I PPww P PP 5.3, the quadratic regression equation (6) in column 2. Then, results are replicated by using the _Net Inflow Share_ (rather than the average), in columns 3 and 4.

The linear regression is robust to the inclusion of the alternative variables; a marginal increase in net relative inflow of displaced population (relative to settlement population) do increase the NTL, as long as the past NTL level is not too small . Assuming a linear relationship, equation (5) is positive as long as past NTL levels are larger than 0.24, see column (1) of Table 5.3. An increase in the _average_ net inflow of displaced persons (as a proportion of population) raises the NTL level as long as past NTL level is not too small. Similarly, an increase in the _total_ net inflow of displaced persons (as a proportion of cumulated population) raises the NTL level - equation (5) is positive - as long as past NTL levels are larger than 0.22. As a reference, all IOM settlements in Badghis recorded an NTL value above both thresholds at least one during 2018-2020.<sup>12</sup> _Table_ 5.3 _. Regression of NTL on average and total share of displaced persons as share of population_

|||Y = NT<br>|L levels<br>||
|---|---|---|---|---|
||X= Average|Inflow Share|X = Net In|flow Share|
|VARIABLES<br>|(1)<br>Linear|(2)<br>Quadratic|(3)<br>Linear|(4)<br>Quadratic|
|α1;Lagged NTL<br>|0.674***|1.214***|0.646***|1.211***|
||(0.00890)|(0.0222)|(0.00961)|(0.0226)|
|α4;(Lagged NTL)<sup>2</sup><br>||-0.385***||-0.426***|
|||(0.0143)||(0.0154)|
|α2;Total Inflow<br>|-0.0799***|0.0179|-0.0772***|0.0765**|
||(0.00613)|(0.0123)|(0.00822)|(0.0309)|
|α3;(Lagged NTL)*Total Inflow<br>|0.337***|-0.254***|0.363***|-0.590***|
||(0.0173)|(0.0593)|(0.0185)|(0.136)|
|α5;(Lagged NTL)<sup>2</sup>* Total Inflow<br>||0.742***<br>(0.0717)||1.188***<br>(0.121)|
|α6;(Total Inflow)<sup>2</sup><br>||-0.0796***||-0.184***|
|||(0.0217)||(0.0482)|
|α7;(Lagged NTL)*( Total Inflow)<sup>2</sup><br>||0.527***<br>(0.102)||1.047***<br>(0.195)|
|α8;(Lagged NTL)<sup>2</sup>*( Total Inflow)<sup>2</sup><br>||-0.736***<br>(0.115)||-1.285***<br>(0.159)|
|α9;Population in 2017<br>|8.80e-06***|5.17e-06***|8.68e-06***|4.97e-06***|
||(7.66e-07)|(7.47e-07)|(7.66e-07)|(7.43e-07)|
|α10;% agriculture in 2020<br>|8.28e-05**|0.000108***|7.05e-05*|0.000108***|
||(4.07e-05)|(3.91e-05)|(4.08e-05)|(3.92e-05)|
|α0;Constant|0.0561***|-0.106***|0.0638***|-0.101***|
||(0.00633)|(0.00852)|(0.00647)|(0.00857)|
|Observations|8,497|8,497|8,497|8,497|

12 NTL levels around Badghis settlement evolved between 0.03 and 2.215 during the 2028-2020 period (see Table 3.3).