Unemployment in Mexico : its
            characteristics and determinants
The restructuring of Mexico's
            economy has had surprisingly little effect on Mexican
            unemployment, which is low even in the worst years.  The
            authors ask:  Is the official definition of unemployment
            adequate?  Is unemployment properly measured?  And who bears
            its burden?  Is the welfare cost of unemployment widespread
            or are certain population groups especially vulnerable to
            it, repeatedly hit by it, and therefore deserving of special
            attention?  Is most unemployment associated with normal
            turnover (movements from one job to another) or with certain
            individuals being out of work a long time?  The authors
            address these questions using panel data from the quarterly
            urban labor force survey, a household-based survey of 16
            urban areas, and data from the National Employment Survey
            carried out every two to three years, and find the
            following.  The structure of unemployment in Mexico is
            broadly similar to that in other countries.  Unemployment is
            highest for those 16 to 25, especially women.  Surprisingly,
            however, it is higher among secondary school graduates than
            among the less educated.  Unemployment as officially
            measured is quite low, and has remained moderate during
            adjustment.  Most adjustment occurred through the real wage
            rather than through unemployment.  There has been relatively
            little restructuring for greater productivity. The official
            definition of unemployment leads to an underestimate of the
            jobless, because it ignores short spells out of the labor
            force transitions in and out of the labor force which are
            frequent.  Using a more extension definition of unemployment
            raises the rate of male unemployment for 1988 from 3.4
            percent to 6.4 percent, with the greatest increases in
            unemployment observed for people under 20 or with little
            education - yielding a structure of unemployment more like
            the one observed in other countries.  Age, gender, and
            education are key determinants of unemployment.  The
            probability of unemployment decreases with age and education
            for both men and women. Marriage is associated with lower
            risk of unemployment for men and for more educated women,
            but more probability of unemployment for women with less
            education.  The typical spell of unemployment is not long:
            a mean duration of 5.7 months for men and 7.2 months for
            women (which explains the higher average unemployment rate
            for women). The duration of unemployment is longer for older
            workers but does not vary substantially according to
            educational attainment.  Heads of households and individuals
            with household responsibilities tend to exit from
            unemployment faster.  Although the typical spell of
            unemployment is relatively short, almost 70 percent of all
            unemployment in 1990-91 was attributable to spells lasting
            at least six months, and 30 percent corresponded to spells
            lasting at least a year.  Although unemployment rates, as
            measured over a one-week period, are low (3 to 6 percent),
            15 to 20 percent experience at least one spell of
            unemployment over a year.  Among teenagers, the proportion
            is highest (50 percent) while it is only 10 percent for
            workers over 30.