resources that armed groups rely on for revenue generation can erode political stability (SI A.6.1 and Figure S17). Rebel groups with extensive resource endowments are capable of mounting complex attacks on vulnerable targets [85], and government forces also threaten civilians’ safety in resource-rich regions [86]. The subset of APmanaged protected areas in active conflict zones, such as Garamba National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Pendjari and W National Parks in Benin, likely are driving the increase in civilian targeting we estimate (Figure S14).

Our findings principally underscore the need to strengthen local communities’ involvement in protected area management. Recall that we find suggestive evidence of transference to AP coinciding with lower levels of decision-making inclusiveness in protected area management. If increased insecurity is one cost of transferring protected areas to private organizations, then the normative argument for bridging the gap between communities’ safety and private organizations’ conservation activities is even stronger. Doing so also may have instrumental value: higher levels of insecurity could undermine communities’ perceptions of protected area management, reducing rangers’ ability to gather information critical to anti-poaching efforts [87]. Forming what some call “inclusive” anti-poaching units—whereby rangers are accountable to local communities instead of external organizations—may help safeguard wildlife without placing nearby communities’ safety at risk [88, 89].

Yet our analysis of AP’s effect on economic development provides some optimism that privately-managed protected areas can benefit people and wildlife. For example, we find that tourism increases in protected areas after they are transferred to AP. This hints at the economic potential of private sector involvement in protected area management. Of course, our results rely on tourism proxy data, and actual visitor numbers should be obtained to confirm these findings. Moreover, the distribution of tourism benefits within local communities remains unknown, warranting future exploration.

It also appears that AP’s positive conservation impact does not impair economic development, in contrast to the traditional view that conservation and development are competing objectives [90]. This trade-off between conservation and economic development may be occurring prior to AP management, as indicated by the upward pre-transference trend in asset wealth (indicating economic development) concurrent with the downward pre-transference trend in elephant poaching (indicating reduced conservation). However, asset wealth remains stable and elevated in protected areas following their transference to AP, even as elephant poaching rates decline substantially. It is important to emphasize that the absence of evidence of an economic development cost does not imply that AP management increases economic development; the upward pre-transference trend in asset wealth precludes that inference.

Finally, our results highlight a continued need for careful evaluations of privatelymanaged protected areas, particularly regarding their impacts on nearby communities. People living near protected areas have much to gain or lose from private management, yet their voices are seldom captured in the observational data used to gauge protected area effectiveness. Large field-based data collection projects enabling the careful measurement of local peoples’ experiences of protected area management will be critical for future research. For example, such data would provide greater certainty 13