# **Table A.9 Ordered Probit Regression Estimates with Ordinal IEG Outcome Ratings, Employing Polity IV Measures: Marginal Effects Reported for PSM Projects**

|||Marginal Probabilityof...<br>Moderatel||
|---|---|---|---|
||Variable<br>Highly<br>Unsatisfactory Rating|Unsatisfactory<br>Rating<br>y<br>Unsatisfactory<br>Rating<br>Moderately<br>Satisfactory Rating<br>Satisfactory<br>Rating<br>H|ighly Satisfactory<br>Rating|
||DPI Share of Programmatic<br>Parties<br>-0.0235**|-0.0995***<br>-0.0592***<br>-0.0183**<br>0.170***|0.0300***|
|ntext<br>es|<br>(-2.42)<br>|(-3.15)<br>(-3.14)<br>(-2.07)<br>(3.32)|(2.76)|
|y Co<br>ariat|Polity 2 Category=<br>“autocracy” [dummy]<br>0.0169*|0.0663**<br>0.0380**<br>0.0113<br>-0.112**|-0.0208**|
|untr<br>Cov|<br>(1.84)<br>|(2.19)<br>(2.46)<br>(1.46)<br>(-2.46)|(-2.26)|
|Co<br>|Polity 2 Category=<br>“democracy” [dummy]<br>0.00991*|0.0423**<br>0.0262**<br>0.0115*<br>-0.0746**|-0.0154*|
||<br>(1.78)<br>|(2.22)<br>(2.14)<br>(1.69)<br>(-2.18)|(-1.88)|
||Other Country Context<br>Controls<br>Yes|Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes|Yes|
||Region Controls<br>Yes|Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes|Yes|
||<br>Project Content Controls<br>Yes<br>|Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes|Yes|
||Project Management Controls<br> <br>No|No<br>No<br>No<br>No|No|
||at Effectiveness<br>Process and Risk Controls<br>No|No<br>No<br>No<br>No|No|
||Observations<br>674|674<br>674<br>674<br>674|674|
||<br> <br>McFadden’s R<sup>2</sup><br>0.049<br> <sup>2</sup><br>|<br> <br> <br>||
||McKelvey and Zinova’s R<br>0.147<br>Percent CorrectlyPredicted<br>40.65%|||
||Proportional Reduction in<br> <br>7.62%|||
|Marginal|Error<br>effects;_t_statistics in parentheses; (d) for discrete change of d|ummy variable from 0 to 1||
|*_p_< 0.10,<br>_Note:_Esti<br>**Tab**|**_p_< 0.05,***_p_< 0.01<br>mates employ the same set of covariates as model 3 in annex<br>**le A.10 Ordered Probit Regression Estim**<br>**Observable during the First Half of**<br>|table A.7. DPI = database of political institutions.<br>**ates with Ordinal IEG Outcome Ratings for Project Managem**<br>**Project Implementation: Marginal Effects Reported for PSM Pr**<br>Marginal Probabilityof...<br>|**ent Variables**<br>**ojects**<br>|
||Variable<br>Highly<br>Unsatisfactor|Unsatisfactor Ratin<br>Moderately<br>Moderately<br>Satisfactor<br>Satisfactory|Highly<br>Satisfactor|
||<br>y<br>i|y g<br>Unsatisfactory Rating<br>y<br>i<br>Rating|y<br>i|
||Ratng<br>Committed Amount<br>-0.0000123|Ratng<br>-0.0000646<br>-0.0000362<br>-0.0000146<br>0.000108|Ratng<br>0.0000197|
|<br>at|(-0.61)|(-0.60)<br>(-0.61)<br>(-0.61)<br>(0.61)|(0.60)|
|ment<br>able<br>tage|<br>Lending (~preparation) Costs<br>Tl hd<br>-0.00000358|<br> <br> <br> <br>-0.0000188<br>-0.0000106<br>-0.00000425<br>0.0000315|<br>0.00000573|
|age<br>serv<br>ss S|ota [$ tousan]<br>(-0.45)|(-0.45)<br>(-0.45)<br>(-0.46)<br>(0.45)|(0.46)|
|Man<br>s Ob<br>vene|Days from PCN Review to<br>Al<br>0.00000394|0.0000207<br>0.0000116<br>0.00000468<br>-0.0000346|-0.00000630|
|oject<br>riate<br>fecti|pprova<br>(1.10)<br>|(1.19)<br>(1.16)<br>(1.12)<br>(-1.17)|(-1.20)|
|Pr<br>Cova<br>Ef|Days from Approval to<br>Effectiveness<br>-0.0000161|-0.0000846<br>-0.0000475<br>-0.0000191<br>0.000142|0.0000258|
||<br>(-1.11)|(-1.23)<br>(-1.21)<br>(-1.19)<br>(1.25)|(1.11)|
|he|Country Environment Flag<br>[dummy]<br>-0.00515|-0.0296<br>-0.0181<br>-0.0107<br>0.0523|0.0112|
|g t|(-0.85)|(-0.82)<br>(-0.76)<br>(-0.57)<br>(0.78)|(0.65)|
|rin<br>|<br>Country Record Flag [dummy]<br>00131**|<br> <br> <br> <br>00625***<br>00317***<br>000482<br>-00981***|<br>-00140***|
|e du<br>ation|<br>.<br>(2.08)<br>|.<br>.<br>.<br>.<br>(2.92)<br>(3.07)<br>(0.97)<br>(-3.14)|.<br>(-2.70)|
|rvabl<br>ment|Project Management Flag<br>[dummy]<br>0.00397|0.0210<br>0.0116<br>0.00386<br>-0.0347|-0.00576|
|se<br>le|<br>(094)|(100)<br>(099)<br>(103)<br>(-099)|(-108)|
|Ob<br>mp|.<br>Sfd Fl d<br>000823|.<br>.<br>.<br>.<br>00387<br>00194<br>000326<br>00604|.<br>000920|
|s<br>I|aeguars ag [ummy]<br>.<br>|.<br>.<br>.<br>-.<br> <br> <br> <br>|-.<br>|
|riate<br>oject|(0.79)<br>Counterpart Funds Flag [dummy]<br>-0.0000232|(0.93)<br>(1.07)<br>(0.92)<br>(-1.00)<br>-0.000122<br>-0.0000685<br>-0.0000276<br>0.000204|(-1.19)<br>0.0000372|
|k Cova<br>f of Pr|<br>(-0.00)<br>Number of Risk Flags<br>0.000833<br>|(-0.00)<br>(-0.00)<br>(-0.00)<br>(0.00)<br>0.00438<br>0.00246<br>0.000989<br>-0.00733<br> <br> <br> <br>|(0.00)<br>-0.00133<br>|
|is<br>al|(0.56)|(0.57)<br>(0.57)<br>(0.54)<br>(-0.57)|(-0.52)|
|d R<br>t H|Minimal ISR “DO” Rating<br>-0.00333*|-0.0175**<br>-0.00981**<br>-0.00395<br>0.0292**|0.00532**|
|ess an<br>Firs|(-1.89)<br>Minimal ISR “IP” Rating<br>-0.00228<br>|(-2.25)<br>(-2.31)<br>(-1.60)<br>(2.28)<br>-0.0120<br>-0.00671<br>-0.00270<br>0.0200<br> <br> <br> <br>|(1.99)<br>0.00364*<br>|
|oc|(-1.44)<br> <br>|(-1.56)<br>(-1.56)<br>(-1.57)<br>(1.58)<br> <br> <br> <br>|(1.78)<br>|
|Pr|Projects at Risk<br>0.00730**|0.0384***<br>0.0215***<br>0.00867**<br>-0.0642***|-0.0117**|
||(2.02)<br>Countr Context Controls<br>Yes|(3.10)<br>(3.25)<br>(2.04)<br>(-3.17)<br>Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes|(-2.18)<br>Yes|
||y<br> <br>Reform Content Controls<br>Yes<br>|<br> <br> <br> <br>Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes|<br>Yes|
||Region Controls<br>Yes|Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes<br>Yes|Yes|
||Observations<br>579|579<br>579<br>579<br>579|579|
||<br> <br>McFadden’s R<sup>2</sup><br>0095|<br> <br> <br>||
||<br>.<br>McKelvey and Zinova’s R<sup>2</sup><br>0.265|||
|Marginal<br>*_p_< 0.10,|Percent correctly predicted<br>45.42%<br>Proportional reduction in error<br>15.05%<br>effects;_t_statistics in parentheses; (d) for discrete change of d<br>**_p_< 0.05, ***_p_< 0.01|ummy variable from 0 to 1.||

_Note:_ PCN = project concept note; DO = development objectives; IP = implementation progress; ISR = implementation status and results report.

**A3. Matching Estimates: PSM Projects versus non-PSM Projects**

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