# 11. Increasing Resilience to Climate Change Is Good Development Policy

_<mark>Michael A. Toman and Susmita Dasgupta</mark>_ Scientific and economic research over the past decade has provided increased understanding of the threats that climate change poses for inclusive economic progress and poverty reduction.<sup>121</sup> While the timing and severity of future climate change impacts remain uncertain, the world will confront threats to economic productivity and welfare through a variety of channels including elevated health risks, reduced land and labor productivity, degradation of natural ecosystems, greater exposure to extreme events (droughts, storms, floods), and higher infrastructure investment costs.<sup>122</sup> Low‐income people face greater exposure to climate change risks but have lower capacity to reduce their vulnerability. Without strong counter‐measures, climate change impacts will exacerbate poverty and inequality in developing countries and make escape from poverty considerably more difficult. This places increased resilience to climate change at the center of development policy.

The threats to sustainable development and poverty reduction posed by climate change are starkly illustrated by the findings of a multi‐year, multi‐disciplinary program of research in southwest coastal Bangladesh, a very impoverished area of the country. As sea level rises and storm‐caused inundations increase in severity and frequency, the resulting soil and water salinization will reduce the availability of food, harm maternal and child health (including higher infant mortality), damage a World Heritage site, and lead to outmigration that increases poverty among those vulnerable family members left behind. 123,124,125 These problems are hardly unique to southwest coastal Bangladesh. Climate variability has been shown to have adverse impacts on household welfare in rural Mexico, due in particular to challenges in smoothing out fluctuations in agricultural incomes.<sup>126</sup> In both marginal agricultural areas and coastal zones, the poor are especially disadvantaged by climate change because they are so dependent on natural assets affected by climate change, and because their options for escaping their difficult circumstances are limited.<sup>127</sup> In urban areas across the developing world, poor people live in the areas most vulnerable to

> 121 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), _Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change_ . IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2014. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf.

> 122 Leichenko, Robin and Julie A. Silva, Climate Change and Poverty: Vulnerability, Impacts, and Alleviation Strategies, _WIREs Climate Change_ 2014. doi: 10.1002/wcc.287.

> 123 Dasgupta, Susmita, Mainul Huq, and David Wheeler, Drinking Water Salinity and Infant Mortality in Coastal Bangladesh. _Water Economics and Policy_ 2:(1), 2016, pages 205‐242.

> 124 Dasgupta, Susmita, Istiak Sobhan, and David Wheeler, The Impact of Climate Change and Aquatic Salinization on Mangrove Species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans, _Ambio_ 46:(6), 2017, pages 680‐694.

> 125 Dasgupta, Susmita, Md. Moqbul Hossain, Mainul Huq, and David Wheeler, Facing the Hungry Tide: Climate Change, Livelihood Threats, and Household Responses in Coastal Bangladesh. _Climate Change Economics_ 7 (3), 2016, pages 1‐25.

> 126 Skoufias E, K. Vinha, The Impacts of Climate Variability on Household Welfare in Rural Mexico. _Population and Environment_ 34, 2013, pages 370–399.

> 127 Barbier, Edward B, and Jacob P Hochard, The Impacts of Climate Change on the Poor in Disadvantaged Regions. _Review of Environmental Economics and Policy_ 12:(1), 2018, pages 26–47.

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