# 1. INTRODUCTION

Africa has been achieving much higher rates of growth, with the ‘super-cycle’ in commodity prices constituting a positive economic shock for much of the region, and especially for those with mineral resources (Andersen et al. 2014; Beny and Cook, 2009). Although there has recently been a sharp drop in world prices, the post-2000 <mark>commodity boom has been one of the most powerful since 1945 (see for example Radetzki, 2006; Humphreys, 2013).</mark> <mark>The</mark> accession of China to the multilateral trading system, under the World Trade Organization (WTO), in December 2001 has been one of the main drivers of the recent commodities price boom, especially over 2002-08 (Erten and Ocampo, 2013). While China has its own mining sector (metals and coal), it is a net importer of most metals (as well as most of the oil and gas that it uses). World metals prices almost tripled over 2001-06, with China accounting for more than 50 per cent of the increased demand (Francis, 2007: 20). China’s WTO accession accelerated China’s already high economic growth rate, adding further to its appetite for Africa’s bauxite, copper, iron ore, nickel, uranium and other minerals (Pigato and Tang, W., 2015).

This leads to an important issue: what has been the economic impact on Africa of the increased demand for metals associated with China’s growth surge after its WTO Accession? Much of the policy debate focuses on China’s impact on Africa at the _national_ level, and specifically the overall economic growth impact.<sup>5</sup> However, success in raising economic growth may not translate into success at the local economic level, and the existing pattern of spatial development is highly uneven in Africa. Mining projects may have few local economic linkages even though they contribute to higher levels of GDP, export earnings, and government revenues. Accordingly, our aim is to evaluate the impact of China’s WTO accession – via the channel of world mineral prices – on indicators of local development in Africa, namely: economic growth; migration; spatial inequality; and welfare.

Our paper makes four main contributions. First, it provides fresh empirical evidence on the development of China’s WTO accession, as Henderson et al. (2013) notes, there is a shortage of research evidence regarding China’s impact on African economies. Second, previous studies examining the impact of accession have been theoretical or simulation-based, mainly due to a lack of data, especially when the study was undertaken only a few years after 2001 (see for example Wang, 2003; Wong, 2003). As we explain in detail later, the present study utilizes novel night lights and spatial mineral data to circumvent this limitation. Third, the spatial dimension of Africa’s growth, which is a major determinant of the overall income distribution, and whether growth is ‘inclusive’ or not, needs more robust evidence given its high policy importance

> 5 China impacts Africa’s economies through both direct bilateral relations (in trade, finance and investment) and via indirect effects (Henderson et al., 2013). The present paper focuses on the latter category, the impact of which can be much larger than that of direct bilateral relations (Ibid).

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