scarcity is acute in most Asian countries, and in sub-Saharan Africa available cropland per agricultural person fell by 40 percent between 1960 and 2003 (World Bank 2007:63). Some subSaharan African countries have considerable room for land expansion, but high rural population growth drives expansion into forest or grazing land, and large investments in infrastructure, disease control, and soil management are needed to convert these lands to productive agriculture (World Bank 2007:63). Food production per capita changed little in sub-Saharan Africa between 1961 and 2005 (Figure 2).

There is also a shortage of jobs. Levels of unemployment are already high in many countries, but the World Bank (2012:51) estimates that just to maintain in 2020 the 2005 levels of employment of the working age population, very substantial job creation is required. An additional million jobs a _<u>month</u>_ will need to be generated in South Asia. Given the slow pace of job growth in this region it is fortunate that the population aged 0-14 is projected to decline soon (UN 2013, medium variant), as seen also in India (Figure 3). The report also estimates that the number of jobs in sub-Saharan Africa would have to increase by about 50 percent, which translates into employment growth of 2.7 percent a year. As the population aged 0-14 is growing sharply in sub-Saharan Africa, the numbers entering working age will continue to rise sharply for decades (Figure 3). The rapid projected growth of the young population in the least developed countries contrasts sharply with that of other developing countries (Figure 3), so countries with weak economic growth face the highest increase in numbers entering the labor force.

Population growth imposes a direct burden of resource depletion on developing countries. Arrow et al (2004:164-5) estimate that the rate of depletion of ‘genuine wealth per capita’ in subSaharan Africa during 1970-2000 was such that it would be halved about every 25 years. Kelley and Schmidt (2005) conclude that high fertility has also meant that sub-Saharan Africa has as yet benefited far less than other regions from the impact of reduced dependency ratios on output growth per capita.

Lower fertility can also help the poorest countries’ efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change − so that the shocks affect fewer people, and more resources per capita are available for coping with them. These resources can be used for adaptation measures, such as efforts to slow the decline in food production. Systems for disaster management and preventive health services can be strengthened to minimize the spread of existing and emerging diseases. Such measures will make it easier to coordinate collective efforts to cope with climate change.

With less pressure on livelihoods, poor households will also be better placed to cope with the consequences of climate change. Looking to the future, slower population growth will reduce these countries’ projected contribution to future climate change, which will as before have the most devastating impact on these countries.

# **4.   Can family planning programs help lower fertility?**

Government programs to promote the use of effective contraceptive methods are by no means a necessary condition of fertility decline: birth rates fell in Europe with no State encouragement. Nor are they the only policy levers to encourage lower fertility. Female education has been found associated with lower fertility by raising the age at first birth, in settings as varied as 8