**Table 5 Biofuels impact on output prices and volume of select crops**

(percent change in 2010 relative to non-biofuels scenario)

||||**_Output pric_**|**_e_**|||**_O_**|**_utput volu_**|**_mes_**||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Other|||Sugar||Other|||Sugar||
||cereal<br>grains|Oil<br>seeds|Wheat|cane and<br>beet|Agri-<br>culture|cereal<br>grains|Oil<br>seeds|Wheat|cane and<br>beet|Agri-<br>culture|
|United States|7.2|9.7|3.2|3.6|4.2|52.6|62.2|3.2|-0.3|13.0|
|Canada|4.7|5.9|2.9|3.4|3.1|61.6|65.9|11.2|4.3|17.3|
|Japan|2.7|2.6|1.0|0.2|0.3|28.4|23.9|10.1|0.3|1.3|
|Rest of high income|5.6|7.2|2.3|1.0|2.1|42.1|24.8|14.2|1.0|4.5|
|EU 27 and EFTA|5.2|3.4|1.7|0.6|1.4|51.6|42.6|12.3|0.8|6.9|
|China|7.6|6.6|2.8|2.5|3.1|40.5|25.9|5.8|-1.0|1.2|
|Indonesia|24.9|21.4||9.6|12.6|32.8|27.6||-5.3|1.1|
|Rest of developing East Asia|14.1|11.2|3.8|4.1|4.8|39.4|20.4|-4.4|-0.8|0.6|
|India|29.8|31.1|15.1|19.0|20.4|42.5|45.7|5.9|-3.2|4.9|
|Rest of South Asia|8.3|7.6|3.2|2.5|2.6|32.9|27.7|7.0|0.1|0.8|
|Russia|8.0|8.0|3.9|2.4|3.8|46.2|47.1|10.8|-1.1|7.1|
|Rest of Europe and Central Asia|7.9|8.9|4.9|4.5|5.2|48.6|49.3|5.8|-1.4|2.5|
|MENA Energy exporters|3.2|4.2|2.8|2.3|3.2|36.3|41.1|5.2|0.0|2.4|
|Rest of MENA|6.8|7.6|5.0|5.2|5.3|30.6|35.6|-0.5|-1.5|1.7|
|Argentina|17.8|18.7|12.6|13.2|16.3|35.9|37.6|-16.3|-16.1|9.0|
|Chile|6.5||3.8|3.5|4.5|55.6||8.1|0.3|4.5|
|Brazil|13.2|14.4|8.6|12.7|12.0|41.1|123.4|-12.7|48.5|22.2|
|Colombia|7.1|8.5|3.6|3.8|4.0|24.6|35.8|-1.1|-0.5|1.8|
|Mexico|12.1|4.9|3.9|7.0|7.1|26.8|33.7|-3.6|-2.7|1.5|
|Peru|14.6|16.7|7.7|7.7|8.6|29.5|39.1|-5.1|-1.1|0.8|
|Venezuela, R.B.|9.4|8.9|4.5||5.8|31.0|36.3|-5.7||2.8|
|Bolivia and Ecuador|8.1|13.8|3.8|4.8|6.1|35.6|57.1|-4.0|-1.4|2.7|
|Paraguay and Uruguay|18.6|19.2|9.7|14.1|13.5|35.1|47.0|-11.1|-8.2|4.8|
|Central America|8.5|10.2|3.1|4.7|5.0|32.8|40.2|-1.8|-1.2|2.0|
|Caribbean|10.0|7.9|3.8|4.8|5.4|29.8|36.9|-2.5|-1.9|1.9|
|Sub Saharan Africa|11.3|13.5|6.3|6.0|9.2|41.4|52.4|-13.0|-2.1|3.6|
|High income countries|6.3|7.4|2.3|1.3|2.2|52.2|56.2|9.5|0.6|8.6|
|East Asia and Pacific|10.8|11.4|2.9|4.3|4.0|39.1|26.0|5.4|-1.6|1.1|
|South Asia|29.2|30.5|14.0|16.5|16.2|42.2|45.3|6.0|-2.7|3.9|
|Europe and Central Asia|8.0|8.6|4.5|4.2|4.7|47.3|48.7|7.3|-1.3|4.1|
|Middle East and North Africa|4.4|5.4|3.7|4.1|3.7|33.9|38.7|2.6|-0.9|2.2|
|Sub Saharan Africa|11.3|13.5|6.3|6.0|9.2|41.4|52.4|-13.0|-2.1|3.6|
|Latin America and the Caribbean|12.4|15.6|8.4|8.7|9.2|32.0|85.1|-7.3|17.2|9.2|
|Developing countries|11.9|19.4|7.8|11.0|7.5|38.8|56.3|4.1|3.1|3.8|
|World total|9.6|15.2|5.6|8.9|5.5|45.2|56.3|6.8|2.5|6.0|

The increase in factor incomes is offset by a rise in consumer prices. The world price of agricultural goods increases by 10 percent relative to the base year (2004) and by 5.6 percent relative to the baseline price in 2010, while the price of agriculture and processed food rises by 2.2 percent. The incidence of the price increases is heavily biased towards the poorer regions of the world (Figure 8). This is not particularly surprising, since the two poorest regions—South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa—do not produce large amounts of biofuels but consume large amounts of grains. As a result of this vulnerability, combined with limited producer gains in these regions, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa experience the largest welfare losses (in percentage terms) in the biofuels scenario (Table 6).

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