# **S15 Market Access, Long Difference - Additional Results**

This section examines the sensitivity of long difference market access results. Section S15.1 tests different doughnut sizes when instrumenting market access, section S15.2 tests different values of _θ_ (travel elasticity) when constructing market access, and S15.3 estimates models using two groups of baseline nighttime lights.

## **S15.1 Varying Doughnut Sizes**

In this section, we explore the sensitivity of market access results to using different doughnut sizes for the market access instrument; i.e., excluding Woredas within different distances. Our main specification uses 50km; figure S18 shows results using a 20km buffer and S19 using a 100km buffer. The coefficient values change slightly from the main specification; however, the magnitude and significance of the coefficients generally stay the same.

**Table S18:** Association of changes in market access on changes in outcome variables using a long difference, 20km doughnut IV results

||NT|L|Urb|an|Crop|land|N|TL|Ur|ban|Cro|pland|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|(10)|(11)|(12)|
|MA|_−_0_._09<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._11<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._0005|_−_0_._002|0_._003|0_._002|_−_0_._10|_−_0_._15<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._005|_−_0_._03|_−_0_._0001|_−_0_._005|
||(0_._02)|(0_._02)|(0_._01)|(0_._005)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._07)|(0_._08)|(0_._05)|(0_._06)|(0_._02)|(0_._02)|
|MA_×NTL_96 Low||0_._07<sup>_∗∗_</sup>||_−_0_._02<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._005||0_._24<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._04||0_._01|
|||(0_._03)||(0_._01)||(0_._01)||(0_._07)||(0_._04)||(0_._01)|
|MA_×NTL_96 Med||0_._13<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||_−_0_._02<sup>_∗∗_</sup>||0_._004||0_._36<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._19<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._02<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|
|||(0_._03)||(0_._01)||(0_._01)||(0_._09)||(0_._06)||(0_._01)|
|MA_×NTL_96 High||0_._29<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._04||0_._03||0_._58<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._67<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>||0_._08<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|
|||(0_._04)||(0_._04)||(0_._02)||(0_._11)||(0_._20)||(0_._03)|
|MA, 1996|0_._13<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._11<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._03<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._03<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._01<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._01<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._07<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._03<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._04<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._01|_−_0_._002|_−_0_._005|
||(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._004)|(0_._003)|(0_._003)|(0_._003)|(0_._01)|(0_._02)|(0_._02)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|
|Log mean light, 1996|_−_0_._001|_−_0_._13<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._45<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._43<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._06<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._12|_−_0_._32<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._31|0_._08|_−_0_._11|_−_0_._14|
||(0_._05)|(0_._05)|(0_._12)|(0_._13)|(0_._02)|(0_._03)|(0_._08)|(0_._08)|(0_._19)|(0_._19)|(0_._10)|(0_._10)|
|Pre-trend: log mean light|0_._08|0_._15<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._15|0_._18|_−_0_._002|0_._01|0_._12|0_._10|_−_0_._20|_−_0_._17|0_._12|0_._13<sup>_∗_</sup>|
||(0_._08)|(0_._08)|(0_._15)|(0_._15)|(0_._03)|(0_._03)|(0_._13)|(0_._11)|(0_._23)|(0_._21)|(0_._08)|(0_._08)|
|Pre-trend: log N urban pixels|0_._34<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._34<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._57<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._57<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._04|_−_0_._04|_−_0_._26<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._23<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._34<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._37<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._04<sup>_∗_</sup>|
||(0_._14)|(0_._13)|(0_._21)|(0_._21)|(0_._12)|(0_._12)|(0_._09)|(0_._09)|(0_._20)|(0_._22)|(0_._02)|(0_._02)|
|Unit|_Keb._|_Keb._|_Keb._|_Keb._|_Keb._|_Keb._|_Wor._|_Wor._|_Wor._|_Wor._|_Wor._|_Wor._|
|Observations|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|780|780|780|780|780|780|
|Adjusted R<sup>2</sup>|0.17|0.18|0.22|0.23|0.14|0.14|0.33|0.36|0.28|0.30|0.37|0.37|

Standard errors are clustered on Woredas when using Kebeles as the unit of analysis and are clustered on Zones when using Woredas as the unit of analysis. All models include Zone fixed effects. MA is the logged difference of MA from 1996 to 2016. MA is instrumented with a 20km MA Doughnut variable; that is, in calculating market access, units within 20km are excluded. _NTL_ 96 Low, Medium, and High are dummy variables for different groups of baseline nighttime lights; groups are formed using 3-quantiles of the maximum value of nighttime lights within Woredas that had some positive nighttime lights. The excluded group is Woredas where the maximum value of nighttime lights at baseline was 0. NTL is the average nighttime lights within Kebeles, Urban is the total urban area within Kebeles, and Cropland is the total cropland area within Kebeles; we use the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation on all outcome variables, which has a similar interpretation as logs.<sup>_∗_</sup> p _<_ 0.1; _∗∗ ∗∗∗_ p _<_ 0.05; p _<_ 0 _._ 01 S30