rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
age 25 to 55 in the first survey round are likely the same cohorts age 30 to 60 in the second survey round five years later.<sup>24</sup> The effects of the time-varying variables are thus subsumed in the correlation coefficient ρ of the error terms. This feature stands in contrast with the survey-tosurvey imputation methods discussed in earlier sections that aim to capture as many relevant (timeinvariant and time-varying) variables on the right-hand side in their estimation models.<sup>25</sup>

# _Examples and Remaining Challenges_

Despite a growing collection of nationally representative panel surveys for African countries, data coverage is unfortunately available for only seven countries, and the time periods spanned by these panel surveys are mostly limited to short periods of three years or less. To overcome this data shortage, Dang and Dabalen (in press) construct synthetic panel data for more than 20 countries accounting for two-thirds of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa; these synthetic panels span an average of six years for each country. Their analysis suggests that all these countries as a whole have had pro-poor growth, with one-third of the poor population escaping poverty, which is larger than the proportion of the population that fell into poverty in the same period. Chronic poverty, however, remains high and a considerable proportion of the population is vulnerable to falling into poverty.

Despite their increasing popularity, synthetic panels are not the perfect substitute for actual panel data. In particular, not much is known whether, and how useful synthetic panels can be utilized in applications involving studying a causal relationship or regression analysis. The analysis offered to date in terms of profiling the poverty trajectories for population groups with these

> 24 The age range can be adjusted similarly if there is a different time interval between the two survey rounds. Other time-varying household characteristics can also be used if retrospective questions about the round-1 values of such characteristics are asked in the second-round survey.

> 25 This difference is further accentuated with some missing data imputation methods in the statistical literature where sample design variables such as sampling weights, strata and cluster identifiers are also included in the estimation model (see, e.g., Rubin (1987)).

22
treatment effect over a period 9-15 months post-treatment is likely to be reasonable.<sup>10</sup> In contrast, if there is reason to believe the effects differ dramatically with time since treatment, one will not want to average over long periods. High seasonality may provide another reason to conduct multiple measures – it may be of more interest to get the average impact over high and low demand periods than to get the impact only at one particular point in time.

2. _Survey compliance and attrition._ Conducting multiple survey waves increases the burden on respondents, which might increase attrition. Using multiple pre-treatment waves can be beneficial in this respect, by eliminating the individuals most likely to attrit before the randomization is done, one can improve internal validity by randomizing only over individuals that are likely to be found in a follow-up survey. In contrast, if multiple rounds of post-treatment surveys cause significant attrition, this will limit the extent to which researchers will wish to conduct many rounds of the survey. If the survey is just collecting measurement of a few key outcomes, these additional rounds of post-treatment surveys can be short and less burdensome for respondents, which can minimize this dropout. Secondly, by conducting multiple post-treatment rounds, researchers stand a better chance of capturing at least once post-treatment individuals who are harder to track down. For example, a business owner who travels temporarily to other towns might get missed in a one-off survey, but may get found when going back at monthly or quarterly intervals. Finally, there is also the possibility that waiting for a long time to re-contact people may make it harder to find them, and make respondents think you have lost interest in them, whereas regular follow-ups may instead these risks.

3. _Will multiple measures change people’s reporting or people’s behaviors?_ Experience with measuring microenterprise profits suggests that respondents may report more accurately after one or two rounds of surveys, perhaps as they better understand the concepts being asked and can recall them better when asked for a second or third time (Samphantharak and Townsend, 2009; Fafchamps et al, 2010a). This suggests a benefit to researchers of conducting more than one pre-treatment survey. However, in some circumstances there will be a concern that asking the same question multiple times will

> 10 Researchers interested in time since treatment effects can then combine multiple measures around 1 year, around 2 years, etc. See De Mel et al. (2008) for an example, in which quarterly waves are combined to look at how treatment effects vary over the first year since treatment, second year since treatment, etc.

22
<!-- Start of picture text --> 120% —Baseline scaling up<br>100%<br>80%<br>60%<br>40%<br>20%<br>0%<br>-20%<br>2012 2015 2018 2021 2024<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 5% —Tradeable sector-<br>0% baseline scaling up<br>—Real exchange rate -<br>5% baseline scaling up<br>-10%<br>15915%<br>-20%<br>-25%<br>2012 2015 2018 2021 2024<br><!-- End of picture text -->
An Assessment Of Reform Options For The Public Service Pension Fund In Uganda for the last five years. The data did not show any significant difference between men versus women as well as civil servants versus teachers of the same age.

**Figure 44: Assumed number of years of service at retirement**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 40<br>35<br>30<br>25<br>20<br>15<br>10<br>5<br>0<br>45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60<br>Age<br>Years of service<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Source** : WB calculations based on actual data

In accordance with the current law, survivorship benefits are modeled to be 100% of old age pensions.

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14 _Fig 4: Horizontal inequity and reranking_ <!-- Start of picture text --> ostpayment<br>ncome X-P<br>990 _ X<br>900 /_<br>850<br>1000 1 100 EPrepayment income X<br><!-- End of picture text --> In short, differences in health care payments at each income level be sufficiently large for households starting off close to one another in the prepayment distribution to change their positions in the move to the postpayment distribution. This possibility was illustrated vividly in the World Bank's _Voices of the Poor_ exercise [11], which reported that in Lao Cai, Vietnam, a 26 year-old man had moved from being the richest man in his community to one of the poorest as a result of the large health care costs necessitated by his daughter's severe illness.

Such rerankings are captured in the move from the postpayment concentration curve to the postpayment Lorenz curve. They are captured numerically by R in eqn (3). The overlapping of fans (causing households to move up or down the income distribution as a result of health care payments) is conceptually distinct from horizontal inequity (the existence of fans). However, if horizontal differences are the usual source of non-zero values of _R,_ it seems unwise to try to make too much of the distinction between R and H. This is reinforced by the fact that although in the population at large there will be households on the same prepayment income, in a household survey such instances are rare. In empirical work, it therefore becomes necessary to define equals by reference to _bands_ of prepayment income, within which, for the purpose of the exercise, households are deemed to be equal. The choice of bandwidth inevitably affects the computed value of H, but also affects the computed value of R. Specifically, it seems to be the case that as the bandwidth is widened, _H_ falls and _R_ rises. However, the sum of _H_ and _R_ does not seem to change much. This coupled with the fact that it is typically horizontal differences that produce reranking, suggests that it may make sense to focus on the sum of _H_ and _R,_ and to treat the sum as capturing horizontal differences.

# _PUTTING ITALL TOGETHER_

This section suggested that the most sensible way to approach equity in health care financing is to treat it explicitly as an income redistribution problem-policymakers are not
areal extent of a cyclone under climate change an additional 4,840 primary and secondary schools are projected to be damaged in a 10 year return period cyclone. According to the standard specification of the LGED, the size of a standard school in Bangladesh is approximately 160 sq m and its contents are worth $2,857 (Tk 200,000). Under the assumption of expected average 50% damage to walls and contents during inundation, the **estimated** (total) **damage**<sup>**36**</sup> **in a changing climate is $8.96 million.**

**The estimated total loss** (cost of making alternative arrangements until the damaged facilities are ready for use again) **is $0.82 million** .

# _<u>Potential damage in agriculture</u>_ <u>:</u>

Computation of potential damage and loss in the agricultural sector focuses on likely impacts on crop production, livestock and fishery.

In the case of cereal production, this analysis is restricted to _Aman_ , _Aus_ and _Boro_ variety of rice, which are the main cereal crops of Bangladesh. In a changing climate, these crops are expected to incur significant damage due to the expansion of storm surge inundation area. The following parameters have been used for their quantification of potential damage (See Table 4).

Historical records indicate the probability of Bangladesh being hit by a tropical cyclone in a post‐monsoon season (67%) is higher than that in a pre‐monsoon season (33%). The cropping calendar, planting ‐ harvesting dates, of _Aman_ , _Aus_ , and _Boro_ are different<sup>37</sup> . As a result, these crops are exposed to varying risk of storm surge inundation, and this difference has been taken into account in the damage estimation. Under the assumptions that cereal production will grow at the annual rate of 2.4% (observed annual growth rate during 2001‐ 2007) in the future and there will be 50% damage in the yield if a 10 year return period cyclone strikes, the **estimated additional damage (primarily loss) for cereal is $788.83 million in a changing climate by 2050.** Sidr (2007) has inflicted a damage of $19.3 million to livestock and losses and damages of $6.7 million to the fishery. Under the assumption that livestock and the fishery will grow at

> 36 includes damage to the walls and therefore cost of re‐plastering and damage of contents.

> 37 _Aman_ grows in monsoon, _Aus_ grows in pre‐monsoon and _Boro_ grows in post‐monsoon season.
In Table 2, we present the correlation between district-level spending on social and religious obligations and perceived household decile. The estimates in Column (2) show that as mean spending on religious and social obligation in the district rises, household perceived decile also rises, conditional on the household’s objective decile. Since the estimate is conditional on the household’s own spending on religious and social obligations, it reflects the relationship between perceived decile and a greater supply of religious and social goods from other households in the district. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the interpretation that households perceive themselves as richer in districts with a greater supply of religious and social goods. As a robustness check, shown in Table S6, we estimate Equation (2) dropping all districts that have a sample size of less than 10 in the CPHS and find virtually identical results.

||(1)||(2)|
|---|---|---|---|
||Perceived<br>decile|HH|Perceived<br>HH<br>decile|
|District: Mean HH spendingon religious/social obligations|||0.000819**|
||||(0.000396)|
|Objective HH decile|0.239***||0.238***|
||(0.0119)||(0.0118)|
|Proportion of HH spendingon religious/social obligations|2.455*||-0.118|
||(1.417)||(0.862)|
|Observations|97,439||97,439|

Notes: All specifications include controls for state, religion, caste, and household size. The unit of analysis is the household, and all observations were weighted by the inverse of the district sample size in the CPHS. Robust standard errors clustered at the district level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

_Table 2. Supply of social/religious goods and perceived household decile_ 15
_A_ 5.<sup>42</sup> Hence, the _q_<sup>_th_</sup> quantile treatment effect on the tracked students is I do not formally establish conditions for consistent estimation. Firpo (2007) recommends a series logit model for the propensity score _Pr_ ( _T_ = 1 _|D_ = _d, X_ ) with the polynomial order chosen using cross-validation. I report results with a quadratic function; the treatment effects are similar with linear, cubic, and quartic specifications. I implement the estimator in four steps:

1. For _D ∈{_ 0 _,_ 1 _}_ , I regress _T_ on student gender, language, nationality, race, a quadratic in high school graduation test scores and all pairwise interactions. I construct the predicted probability _Pr_<sup>ˆ</sup> ( _T_ = 1 _|D, X_ ).

2. I evaluate equation 5 at each half-percentile of the GPA distribution (i.e. quantiles 0.5 to 99.5). I plot this counterfactual GPA distribution for tracked students in the first panel of figure 3, along with the observed GPA distribution.

3. I plot the difference between observed and counterfactual distributions at each halfpercentile in the second panel of figure 3.

4. I construct a 95% bootstrap confidence interval at each half-percentile, clustering at the dormitory-year level and stratifying by ( _D, T_ ).

The Stata code for implementing this estimator is available on my website.

> 42Note that the conditional analogues of assumptions _A_ 4 and _A_ 5 are more restrictive. For example, the common support assumption _A_ 4 may hold for the marginal distribution _FGP A_ ( _·_ ) but not for the conditional distribution _FGP A|X_ ( _·|x_ ) for some value of _x_ .

43
Policy Research Working Paper 6519

# **Abstract**

Studies on innovation and international trade have traditionally focused on manufacturing because neither was seen as important for services. Moreover, the few existing studies on services focus only on industrial countries, although in many developing countries services are already the largest sector in the economy and an important determinant of overall productivity growth. Using a recent firm-level innovation survey for Chile to compare the manufacturing and “tradable” services sector, this paper reveals some novel patterns. First, although services firms have on average a much lower propensity to export than manufacturing firms, services exports are less dominated by large firms and tend to be more skill intensive than manufacturing exports. Second, services firms appear to be as innovative as—and in some cases more innovative than—manufacturing firms, in terms of both inputs and outputs of “technological” innovative activity, although services innovations more often take a “non-technological” form. Third, services exporters (like manufacturing exporters) tend to be significantly more innovative than non-exporters, with a wider gap for innovations close to the global technological frontier. These findings suggest that the growing faith in services as a source of both trade and innovative dynamism may not be misplaced.

This paper is a product of the Trade and International Integration Team, Development Research Group; and the Innovation Technology and Entrepreneurship Global Practice; Financial and Private Sector Development Network It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at Liacovone@worldbank.org and amattoo@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
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# B.2 Calculation and Discussion of Efficien Prices

9. All of the projects with SARs contained a discussion of efficiency prices **and** detailed information on the actual price structure in the country. Across the sample, the average domestic price over all coal qualities was $29 per ton, compared to an average LRHC of $28 per ton. ImpQrt parity averaged $64 per ton, while (quality adjusted) export parity was about $20/ton in the one case **where** it was relevant.

10. In one country efficiency prices were represented by import parity, in one by export parity and in two by LRMC. On this basis, domestic prices ranged from 50% to 104% of their respective efficiency prices.

11. Questions of price structure (mostly reflecting quality differentials) **were** handled well in most of **the** reports. In addition, there was often comprehensive coverage of the institutional mechanism by which prices **are** set and changed. This is important when the Bank argues for a major revision in the basis for setting prices, **as** it has in several coal projects. Project covenants then **need** to **address the** system for price determination, rather than requiring specific changes in price levels or structures.

# 3.3 Discussion of Adjustments to Efficiency Prices

12. SARs in the coal sector contain full discussions of the financial strength of the companies and the impact of the recomended coal prices on financial viability. Distributional concerns are not a major factor in the sector, and little mention is made of fiscal considerations except insofar as they coincide with financial ones (i.e., to reduce the drain on government resources by raising prices above average costs). The sector in Colombia is an exception to this; there the government has levied a 5% tax on coal production valued at the minehead. Sixty percent of the proceeds of this tax are used to finance coal exploration, with the rest becoming general government revenues.

13. Producer prices receive the bulk of the emphasis in SARs. It is difficult to judge to what extent second best considerations have been reflected in the coal projects reviewed. In view of the wide scope for fuel substitution in the energy sector, it would be useful to see an analysis of the full chain of prices to the consumer and how end-user prices compare with those of substitute fuels.

# B.4 Discussion of Cost Recovery Issues

14. Neither rates of return nor cash generation covenants were used in any of the projects reviewed. Debt coverage or debt/equity ratios were specified in four of the projects, and current ratios in three.

15. The financing plans for the Bank projects tell a mixed story. The table below su arizes the **average** percent accounted for by **each** source of funds. Internal cash generation **averages almost** 30% if China is excluded from the saaple. However, government equity contributions are also high, averaging 26%. In such a small sample, averages can be misleading. In the
Parsing the evidence by job type, a majority of studies of craft and production jobs show positive results, while a majority of studies of coping jobs find negative or neutral results ( Figure 3 left panel). These limitations of PRP to the demanding contextual environments of coping jobs are in line with the theoretical arguments, though the total number of studies of coping jobs (16 in total in this review) are too few to allow generalizations with any degree of confidence. Analyzing studies of relevance to the public sector — i.e. craft or coping jobs only, or 110 studies in the review — by country context reveals that, counter-intuitively, the weight of the evidence is somewhat stronger for developing countries ( Figure 3 right panel). However, it must be emphasized that the number of studies for developing countries is low.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 3: Findings by job type<br>Findings by job type Relevant studies (craft or coping job) by country<br>70 context<br>60<br>60 Failed Neutral Positive 50 46 Failed Neutral Positive<br>45<br>50 40<br>35<br>40<br>30<br>24<br>30 24 25 19<br>19 20 17<br>20 15 15<br>10 1 3 3 8 5 105 1 3<br>0 0<br>Prod. Job Craft Job Coping Job OECD Developing Country<br>Number of studies<br><!-- End of picture text --> When the quality of study (internal validity) is considered separately for studies of craft and coping jobs, again more rigorous research shows on average more positive findings.

Figure 4 illustrates the breakdown of results by study quality for relevant studies. The left panel shows that a majority of high quality studies (ranked 4 and 5 in the measure of internal validity) of craft and coping jobs show positive findings (46 out of 68) while a majority of low quality studies show negative or neutral results. However, the dearth of the evidence on coping jobs is even more apparent for high quality studies as the bulk of the literature has focused on craft jobs, in particular teaching and healthcare (right panel). The findings for craft jobs is generally more positive in these high quality studies in developing country contexts than in OECD contexts, although the number of such studies is very small and largely limited to health and education (Table 3).

# **6. Summary**

Overall the body of evidence paints a supportive picture of performance pay in craft jobs within the public sector, but less so for coping jobs. So, as incentive theory would predict, PRP seemingly has a greater role to play in jobs where the outputs are more readily observable, such as teaching and health care jobs, than it does in more general administration. That these are jobs where the day to day actions of staff are unobservable does not seem to be an obstacle — apparently confounding, at least in the short term, the behavioral economics concern about crowding out intrinsic incentives. It is also in relation to 28