The demographic benefit of
            international migration : hypothesis and application to the
            Middle Eastern and North African contexts
The view that international migration
            has no impact on the size of world population is a sensible
            one. But the author argues, migration from developing to
            more industrial countries during the past decades may have
            resulted in a smaller world population than the one which
            would have been attained had no international migration
            taken place for two reasons: most of recent migration has
            been from high to low birth-rate countries, and migrants
            typically adopt and send back to their home countries models
            and ideas that prevail in host countries. Thus, migrants are
            potential agents of the diffusion of demographic modernity,
            that is, the reduction of birth rates among nonmigrant
            communities left behind in origin countries. This hypothesis
            is tested with data from Morocco and Turkey where most
            emigrants are bound for the West, and Egypt where they are
            bound for the Gulf. The demographic differentials
            encountered through migration in these three countries offer
            contrasted situations-host countries are either more (the
            West) or less (the Gulf) advanced in their demographic
            transition than the home country. Assuming migration changes
            the course of demographic transition in origin countries,
            the author posits that it should work in two opposite
            directions-speeding it up in Morocco and Turkey and slowing
            it down in Egypt. Empirical evidence confirms this
            hypothesis. Time series of birth rates and migrant
            remittances (reflecting the intensity of the relationship
            kept by emigrants with their home country) are strongly
            correlated with each other. Correlation is negative for
            Morocco and Turkey, and positive for Egypt. This suggests
            that Moroccan and Turkish emigration to Europe has been
            accompanied by a fundamental change of attitudes regarding
            marriage and birth, while Egyptian migration to the Gulf has
            not brought home innovative attitudes in this domain, but
            rather material resources for the achievement of traditional
            family goals. Other data suggest that emigration has
            fostered education in Morocco and Turkey but not in Egypt.
            And as has been found in the literature, education is the
            single most important determinant of demographic transition
            among nonmigrant populations in migrants' regions of
            origin. Two broader conclusions are drawn. First, the
            acceleration of the demographic transition in Morocco and
            Turkey is correlated with migration to Europe, a region
            where low birth-rates is the dominant pattern. This suggests
            that international migration may have produced a global
            demographic benefit under the form of a relaxation of
            demographic pressures for the world as a whole. Second, if
            it turns out that emigrants are conveyors of new ideas in
            matters related with family and education, then the same may
            apply to a wider range of civil behavior.