rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
uncertainty, may be even more important than average delivery time to a firm’s ability to compete in just-in-time regimes.

The paper first analyzes comprehensive data for global logistics indicators from the 80 economies. These data show interesting differences across economies, varying by level of development, extent of liberalization, access to coastal ports, and the like. The global logistics indicators most critical for supply chain management are then selected for inclusion in an augmented gravity model. The model incorporates the effects of direct shipping costs as well as time, variability in time, and complexity of procedures, all of which lead to significant indirect costs that harm the export competitiveness of countries. This model incorporates much more detailed and specific information on the components of logistics time and cost than has been used in earlier studies. Incorporating such detailed time and cost information makes it possible to identify the specific policy, institutional, and infrastructural components of international trade— such as inland transport or customs clearance—that are the most serious impediments to trade competitiveness. The analysis finds strong empirical evidence that transaction costs associated with policy and institutional constraints are critical in explaining much of the variation in bilateral trade. The global logistics indicators are generally statistically significant and with the expected sign, indicating that poor logistics performance has a significant adverse effect on bilateral trade.

Next, the paper uses a three-stage estimation process to develop a single logistics index comprising several of the global logistics indicators and shows that this index captures essentially all the explanatory power of the indicators used separately. The final model explains about 71 percent of the variability in bilateral trade in the 80-economy data set. Finally, the paper performs sensitivity analysis on the model with the logistics index to estimate the potential benefits from different improvements in logistics.

# **Literature Review**

The basic framework for the analysis is the gravity model that has been used extensively in the trade literature.<sup>1</sup> The standard gravity model describes bilateral trade as directly related to the size of the two countries involved and inversely related to the geographic distance between them. Recent studies applying the gravity model approach to analyze international trade include

> 1 See Anderson (1979) for different theoretical underpinnings. See Frankel (1997) and Cheng and Wall (2004) for a discussion of earlier studies.

4
households from negative external events, especially households and enterprises with younger heads and owners, for example (micro) insurance schemes or social protection policies. We expect that policies that tackle the difficulties of rural entrepreneurship from both angles (support entrepreneurs and cushion them from external events) will have a more pronounced impact on enterprise creation and productivity, which in turn contributes to higher survival rates and job creation.

Finally we call for more and better data, survey work, and research. While the LSMS-ISA database offer a rich set of data and information, including a separate section on nonfarm entrepreneurship, we face a number of data challenges. For instance, differences and inconsistencies in the content of questionnaires across countries only allows limited comparability. Furthermore, our measure of productivity is partial and imprecise, and we cannot match the type of business activity with individual enterprise information with the current data. Hence we cannot accurately calculate the dispersal of productivity across different types of business activities. Given the need for employment and faster productivity growth to facilitate structural transformation in rural Africa, the benefits of obtaining improved data on non-farm enterprises may be worth the effort.

30
this risk. In practice, the risk of termination may stem from, e.g., political economy issues in one or both countries that host the interconnector, but further research is required to analyze carefully the determinants and magnitude of this risk in specific regions of interest.

Another important dimension for further research is to deploy the theoretical framework to quantify feasible welfare gains from electricity exchange in regions contemplating crossborder cooperation, such as e.g., the South Asia region. In its current form, the model is well suited for studying asymmetric bilateral relationships. The analysis of multilateral pools will be qualitatively similar to that of bilateral contracts with participation and incentive compatibility constraints limiting the extent of cooperation. However, calibration and simulation of numerical models to fit actual grids and interconnector capacities in the regions of interest will be computationally more challenging because of extending the framework to power pools consisting of more than two parties, and using more complex functional forms for characterizing electricity supply and demand relationships.

# **References**

- Abdulkadiroglu, A.: 2013, Trust, Reciprocity, and Favors in Cooperative Relationships, _American Economic Journal: Microeconomics_ **5** (2), 213–259.

- Abdulkadiroglu, A. and Bagwell, K.: 2012, The Optimal Chips Mechanism in a Model of Favors, _Working paper_ .

- Abreu, D.: 1988, On the Theory of Infinitely Repeated Games with Discounting, _Econometrica_ **56** (2), 383–96.

- Albarran, P. and Attanasio, O. P.: 2003, Limited Commitment and Crowding out of Private Transfers: Evidence from a Randomised Experiment, _The Economic Journal_ **113** (486), C77–C85.

- Atkeson, A. and Lucas, R. E.: 1992, On Efficient Distribution with Private Information, _The Review of Economic Studies_ **59** (3), 427–453.

- Besant-Jones, J. E.: 2006, Reforming Power Markets in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?, _Energy and Mining Sector Board Discussion Paper 19_ , The World Bank.

34
liberalization embodied in the Mercosur agreement in the early 1990s. There are also upward spikes in flows (and stock accumulations) around 2000 that correspond to the Argentine financial crisis and currency devaluation. For these two countries, there is also evidence of economically sizable use of non‐ antidumping TTBs during the 1990s, most of which the result of the global safeguard. Like Argentina and Brazil, Turkey experienced a similar increase in the stock of its products covered by TTBs after its formation and phasing in of a customs union (with the European Union) came into effect after 1995, as well as implementation of its Uruguay Round WTO commitments. Both of these actions constrained Turkey’s ability to unilaterally change its applied import tariffs and may have shifted any political pressure to impose new trade barriers onto previously unused TTB policy instruments.

China began using TTBs with its first antidumping case in 1997. Figure 2 indicates a steady, but moderate increase in products covered by its use of AD beginning shortly thereafter. The break in the trend for China is 2002‐2003 when it, like the EU, followed the U.S. lead and imposed a global safeguard over a large number of imported steel products. The result was a spike to 4.49% of the stock of imports (by value) covered by TTBs in 2003. The trade‐weighting in this case reflects a larger economic importance of these products in China’s overall imports than the importance measured by the pure count of products of equation (1), which was 1.92% of all imported products in 2003.

Finally, consider the case of Mexico in figure 2. The dominant feature is how Mexico imposed antidumping barriers on imports from China covering more than 1000 HS‐06 products (more than 21% of Mexico’s imported products, see figure 2a) in 1993 at duties that reached as high as 533%, and these TTBs remained in place until they were finally removed in October 2008. However, because Mexico imposed such barriers _prophylactically_ – i.e., 700 different HS‐06 products with AD imposed in 1993 had _zero_ imports from China in 1992 – cumulatively the 1000 HS‐06 product imports from China covered less than 0.8% of Mexico’s imports in 1992 (figure 2b). Despite the AD being imposed on what would become major product categories for Chinese exported products to the world by the late 1990s (e.g., textiles, clothing, footwear, toys, bicycles, electronics, and chemicals), in this instance the equation (2) approach of trade‐weighting with 1992 import share data tends to underemphasize the amount of trade likely to be affected over time (figure 2b) relative to the _counts_ approach.<sup>20</sup>

> 20 Mexico’s use of antidumping against China in this instance was likely in anticipation of China’s ultimate accession to the WTO (negotiations which began under the GATT in 1987) for which China’s exporters would ultimately receive most‐favored nation treatment under Mexico’s tariff schedule. For an additional discussion, see de la Torre and Gonzalez (2005).

17
capital flows in developing countries. Issues addressed included the benefits and costs of portfolio investment in developing countries, the associated volatility of asset prices and volumes. In addition, recent studies have tested for the segmentation (or integration) of developing country stock markets with world capital markets. Studies based on asset prices, which are more readily available for developing countries' securities, have shown that until the mid-1980s, emerging markets were not integrated with world financial markets. Actual portfolio investment flows data also suggest that the emerging markets are becoming increasingly integrated (see Frankel (1994) and Claessens (1995)). Models that have examined the risk-return trade-off from emerging market portfolio investments have concluded that there are, indeed, significant diversification benefits from investing in these markets relative to asset portfolios that focus solely on industrial country securities. For example, Divecha, Drach and Stefak (1992) and Harvey (1993) have shown that the risk-return trade-off can be Pareto-improved through an dramatic upward shift in the unconditional mean-variance frontier if about 20 percent of an internationally diversified asset portflio is invested in developing country securities.

On the recipent side, the issue of "appropriate" policy responses to the recent surge in private capital flows to developing countries has required attention. Studies by Corbo and Hernandez (1994) and Schadler et. al (1994) have provided a comparision of the experiences of countries in Latin America and Asia. They have tried to separate the external (push) from the domestic (pull) determinants of these flows in order to analyse the policy instrument a country would use to counteract the adverse effects of private capital inflows and outflows. The policy questions addressed include those related to exchange rate policy (exchange rate bands with a crawling peg, managed float or a fixed exchange rate regime), sterilization policy (when to sterilize, how and for how long?), fiscal policy (whether fiscal tightening is followed in a country or not in the face of a surge of private capital inflows depends on whether policy makers perceive these inflows to be temporary or permanent), regulatory and supervisory policy (whether to impose capital controls and, if so, on which type of flow and for how long?). Goldstein (1995) and IMF (1995) provide a survey of related studies and actual events in recipient countries.

17
# **THE IMPACTS OF METERING AND CLIMATE CONDITIONS ON RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY**

# **DEMAND: THE CASE OF ALBANIA**

January 2011 Atsushi Iimi<sup>¶</sup> World Bank (FEU) Key wards: Electricity demand; Metering; Climate change; Nelson-Olsen two-stage estimator.

JEL classifications: C34; C36; H54; L11; L94.

¶ I express my special thanks to the Electricity Regulatory Entity (ERE), Albania and the Institute of Energy, Water and Environment (IEWE), Albania for their cooperation for data collection. Especially, I acknowledge the kind assistance of Bashkim Mal Lushaj, Entela Shehaj and Raimonda Islamaj. I am also grateful to Pedro Antmann, Cecilia Briceno-Garmendia, Alexandru Cojocaru, Gazmend Daci, Jane Olga Ebinger, Antonio Estache, Marianne Fay, Erjon Luci, Marisela Montoliu Munoz, and Tomás Serebrisky for their insightful comments on an earlier version of this paper.
# **Figure 3. Mean Value of Bank Credit by Maturity Bracket as Share of GDP**

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reforms for each country in the survey that was (i) included in the Table 1 regressions and (ii) has complete data for Survey III.

The simulation mechanics are bit more involved for the logit regressions because this is a nonlinear estimator. In our case, P equals the probability that the country suffers a systemic crisis (or the probability that a firm responds that corrupt bank officials are an impediment to its growth). Then, in Table 1, we estimate the following equation: Logit (P) = α + β X.

In order to compute the estimated change in the probability of a crisis resulting from a change in a particular index xk within the full matrix of explanatory variables _X_ , we cannot simply use the estimated β k for that particular index. The coefficients from the logit model have to be rescaled in order to illustrate the marginal effect on the probability of a crisis. This rescaling must account for the initial conditions for each country. In order to compute countryspecific marginal effects on a particular regulatory variable xk, therefore, we apply the standard formula for each country in the sample: The ratio on the right-hand-side of the equation is a country-specific scale effect. For this scale effect, we use the initial reported valued from Survey I. Thus, we are assessing the estimated impact on the probability of a crisis from changes in regulatory policies from Survey I to Survey III based on the initial conditions defined by Survey I. The country-specific marginal effects for the change in a particular index, xk, are then obtained by multiplying this scale factor with the estimated logit coefficient, β k. In this manner, we present the estimated change in the probability of a crisis in each country from the change in each regulatory index from Survey I to Survey III.

There are many serious caveats associated with these simulations. First, we are assuming that the equation defining the relationship between the dependent variables and the regressors has not changed across the different sampling period. Second, we are assuming that the only change in each simulation reported below is that one of the regulatory variables changes, and that the observed changes in the regulatory variables are measured without error. Third, we are assuming that the estimated relations between regulations and various banking-sector outcomes 14
the following days. On the second day, students filled out a self-administered questionnaire measuring financial attitudes and behavior. The third day provided an opportunity for any student who had missed one or both of the previous days to fill out the test and/or questionnaire. The student tests and questionnaires were administered in the classroom in the same way as a regular school exam, i.e. distributed to students, supervised by the surveyor and collected by the surveyor at the end of the allocated time. School teachers were not privy to the tests or questionnaires beforehand, and were not involved in proctoring them.

# **6.2. Baseline Summary Statistics**

Table 1 shows pre-program summary statistics of school and student characteristics for treatment and control schools. The school level variables are for 2008 and were provided by the Federal Ministry of Education. As a result of the school matching and randomization procedures described in Section 4, the pre-program school characteristics were the same on average in the treatment and control groups. For example, the drop-out rate was about 10 percent and the class passing rate was 74 percent in both treatment and control schools.

The remaining variables in Table 1 were collected through the baseline survey that was conducted in August 2010. Student background characteristics show that 56 percent of students participating in the study were female, 67 percent had some form of income (from work or from parents) and about 35 percent were working at baseline. Additionally, 33 percent were beneficiaries of the _Bolsa Família_ government cash transfer program, indicating that they belonged to low-income households _._ About 60 percent of the students’ parents had less than high school education. In terms of financial characteristics, only 11 percent made a list of their expenses every month, but 75 percent negotiated the price or payment method when making purchases. There were no differences in baseline levels of financial proficiency, financial autonomy, or intention to save. Overall, the data in Table 1 indicate that students’ background and financial characteristics were the same across the treatment and control groups at baseline, as expected since treatment status was randomly assigned.

# **6.3. Survey Participation and Attrition**

Table 2 shows the number of schools, students and parents that participated in the surveys at baseline and at follow-up. At baseline, 866 of 868 schools in our study sample participated in the survey, although two of these schools did not implement the financial literacy test and the parent questionnaire. In each follow-up survey, about 40 schools did not implement the survey. Reasons for non-implementation varied and were mostly related to scheduling difficulties. The schools that did not participate in the follow-up surveys were different in each round, so we have followup data for most schools from either follow-up 1 or follow-up 2.

After realizing that survey participation had dropped between baseline and follow-up 1, we provided incentives for survey completion during follow-up 2. Both treatment and control 16
relationship under transformation as citizens gain more oral competency through various pathways. In furthering a “political sociology of democracy” (Heller 2000, 488) the next wave of studies should focus on institutions of actually existing _oral_ democracy, which may have been originally established with the aim of promoting the utopian ideals of deliberative democracy or to inaugurate participatory planning, and engage in a talk-centered analysis that can reveal the extent to which citizens, particularly subordinated groups, can take advantage of these institutions and their relationship with the state.

___________________________

- 1 International Fund for Agricultural Development

- 2 National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development

- 3 This literature is well known and too large to cite. Here are a few examples: Cohen and Rogers

1992 and Gutmann 1998.

- 4 The two terms have been chosen to respectively denote proficiency in speaking and,

particularly, public speaking and public discussion, where persuasiveness and eloquence are valuable skills.

- 5 Aristotle recognized that proficiency in rhetoric was not evenly distributed among citizens, but

he held the view that rhetorical competency was an individual attribute – some citizens were prone to basing their arguments on practical wisdom ( _phronesis_ ), which was ideal and improved the quality of deliberation, but it was much more common for citizens to make arguments based on emotions, which were qualitatively cast as inferior (Hauser 1999).

45
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# PPR Working Paper Series

||Title|Author|Dae|Contact<br>for paper|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|WPS307|On the Accuracy of Economic<br>Observations: Do Sub-Saharan<br>Trade Statistics Mean Anything|Alexander J. Yeats|November 1989|J. Epps<br>33710|
|WPS308|Harmonizing Tax Policies in Central<br>America|Yalcin M. Baran|November 1989|T. Watana<br>31882|
|WPS309|Honduras-Public Sector Finances,<br>Issues, and Policy Suggestions<br>to Resolve Them|Yalcin M. Baran|November 1989|T. Watana<br>31882|
|WPS310|A Macroeconomic Consistency<br>Framework for Zimbabwe|Ali Khadr<br>Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel|||
|WPS311|Macroeconomic Performance<br>Before and After Disinflation in<br>Israel|Leonardo Leiderman<br>Nissan Liviatan|November 1989||
|WPS312|Improving Public Enterprise<br>Performance: Lessons from<br>South Korea|Mary M. Shirley|October 1989|R. Malcolm<br>61708|
|WPS313|The Evolution of Paradigms of<br>Environmental Management in<br>Development|Michael E. Colby|||
|WPS314|Primary Commodity Prices and<br>Macroeconomic Variables: A Long-<br>run Relationship|Theodosios Palaskas<br>Panos Varangis|November 1989|D. Gustafson<br>33714|
|WPS315|Notes on Patents, Distortions,<br>and Development|Julio Nogu6s|||
|WPS316|The Macroeconomics of Populism<br>in Latin America|Rudiger Dornbusch<br>Sebastian Edwards|||
|WPS317|Price and Quality Competitiveness<br>of Socialist Countries' Exports|Zdenek Drabek<br>Andrzej Olechowski|||
|WPS318|Debt Buybacks Can Indicate<br>Sovereign Countries' Willingness<br>to Raise Investment and Repay<br>Debt When Partial Debt Relief is<br>Offered: Theory and Tests|Sankarshan Acharya<br>Ishac Diwan|||
|WPS319|Trends in South-South Trade and<br>the Potential in Non-Discriminatory<br>Liberalization of Barriers|Refik Erzan<br>|||