# **TABLE 1: URBAN NATURAL INCREASE AND ABSOLUTE URBAN GROWTH, 1960-2010**

|Dependent Variable: Annual Urban Growth Rate (%; R|ow 1-4: _t_; R<br>|ow 5-8: 1|960-201<br>|0)<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|
||Coeff.<br>_Uni_|SE<br>_Uni_|Obs.|Adj.-R2|
|1. _Unit_: Panel: Controls; Continent FE x Trend|0.92***|(0.27)|175|0.76|
|2. _Unit_: Panel: Controls; Region FE x Trend|1.00***|(0.28)|175|0.79|
|3. _Unit_: Panel: Controls; Region FE x Trend; Rni_t_|1.08***|(0.30)|175|0.78|
|4. _Unit_: Panel-ADL(2,2): Controls; Region FE x Trend; Rni_t_|1.21**|(0.57)|105|0.84|
|5. _Uni_1960: Cross-Section: Controls; Continent FE|0.74**|(0.34)|35|0.80|
|6. _Uni_1960: Cross-Section: Controls; Continent FE; Rni1960|0.69*|(0.37)|35|0.80|
|7. _Uni_2000: Cross-Section: Controls; Region FE|0.80***|(0.26)|97|0.76|
|8. _Uni_2000: Cross-Section: Controls; Region FE; Rni2000|0.77**|(0.36)|97|0.76|

_Notes:_ The sample consists of 35 countries that were still developing countries in 1960, for the following decades: 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s in rows 1-4, and the period 1960-2010 in rows 5-8. Robust SEs (clustered at the country level in rows 1-4); * p _<_ 0.10, ** p _<_ 0.05, *** p _<_ 0.01. In rows 1-4 and 5-8, the dependent variable is the annual urban growth rate (%) in decade _t_ and 1960-2010, respectively. The variable of interest is the urban crude rate of natural increase (%) in decade _t_ (rows 1-4), the 1960s (rows 5-6) and the 2000s (rows 7-8). See text for specification details and Web Appendix for data sources.

**TABLE 2: URBAN NATURAL INCREASE AND RELATIVE URBAN GROWTH, 1960-2010**

|Dependent Variable: Change in Urbanization Rate (Pct. Poin|ts; Row 1-4|: _t_; Row 5-|8: 196|0-2010)|
|---|---|---|---|---|
||Coeff.<br>_Uni_|Coeff.<br>_Migr_|Obs.|Adj.-R2|
|1. _Unit_: Panel: Controls; Continent FE x Trend|0.88<br>(0.55)|2.20***<br>(0.27)|175|0.68|
|2. _Unit_: Panel: Controls; Region FE x Trend|1.10*<br>(0.55)|2.04***<br>(0.29)|175|0.69|
|3. _Unit_: Panel: Controls; Region FE x Trend; Rni_t_|1.63***<br>(0.61)|2.06***<br>(0.31)|175|0.70|
|4. _Unit_: Panel-ADL(2,2): Controls; Region FE x Trend; Rni_t_|1.21<br>(1.12)|3.28***<br>(0.60)|105|0.83|
|5. _Uni_1960: Cross-Section: Controls; Continent FE|1.66**<br>(0.69)|1.62***<br>(0.42)|35|0.81|
|6. _Uni_1960: Cross-Section: Controls; Continent FE; Rni1960|1.78*<br>(0.90)|1.66***<br>(0.43)|35|0.81|
|7. _Uni_2000: Cross-Section: Controls; Region FE|0.75*<br>(0.41)|1.23***<br>(0.21)|97|0.65|
|8. _Uni_2000: Cross-Section: Controls; Region FE; Rni2000|1.13**<br>(0.50)|1.22***<br>(0.21)|97|0.65|

_Notes:_ The sample consists of 35 countries that were still developing countries in 1960, for the following decades: 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s in rows 1-4, and the period 1960-2010 in rows 5-8. Robust SEs (clustered at the country level in rows 1-4); * p _<_ 0.10, ** p _<_ 0.05, *** p _<_ 0.01. In rows 1-4 and 5-8, the dependent variable is the change in the urbanization rate (%) in decade _t_ and 1960-2010 (divided by 5 in order to be expressed in decadal terms), respectively. The variable of interest is the urban crude rate of natural increase (%) in decade _t_ (rows 1-4), the 1960s (rows 5-6) and the 2000s (rows 7-8). See text for specification details and Web Appendix for data sources.

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