household demographic characteristics<sup>28</sup> and designate those with a higher likelihood of receiving NAF as ‘predicted beneficiaries’ until we reach the levels reported in the administrative records.<sup>29</sup> The value of the transfer received corresponds to the household report of NAF or MoSD cash income<sup>30</sup> in HEIS for the directly identified households and for the predicted beneficiaries who reported MoSD cash income.<sup>31</sup> For the remaining predicted beneficiaries, the benefit is calculated as JOD 45 per person per month up to a maximum of JOD 180, which corresponds to NAF’s basic benefit.

HEIS does not inquire directly about income from the bread compensation scheme transfer as the scheme was introduced in the middle of the survey collection,<sup>32</sup> so it is not possible to follow a direct identification method in this case. According to government figures, the bread compensation transfer reached 5.2 million Jordanian households, which corresponds to 75 percent of the households in the census. We allocate the bread compensation transfer to the poorest 75 percent of households in HEIS (ranked on their per capita expenditure), making sure to include NAF beneficiaries.<sup>33</sup> We adjust the benefit levels of NAF and the bread compensation transfer to match the administrative figures in the budget.

For smaller direct cash or near-cash transfer programmes (Zakat fund and other non-identified programmes), we use direct identification to determine whether a household received the benefit and to determine the magnitude of the amount received. This also applies to other unidentified social-security dues.

Allocating indirect subsidies: Water and electricity<sup>34</sup> To estimate the subsidy received per household we estimate first the quantity used based on the household reported expenditure for the utility,<sup>35</sup> and then matching the subsidy corresponding to this quantity. Of the households, 18 percent and 14 percent do not report expenditures on water and electricity bills, respectively. We impute the estimated utility consumption for those households based on a simple 28 Governorate; rural/urban location; number of income earners; whether the household receives income from agriculture or livestock family businesses; number of elderly household members and children; whether there is a household member with a disability; household size; an indicator for female-headed households; an indicator for whether the household reports receiving cash income from the Ministry of Social Development. 29 As the administrative number of beneficiaries is believed to be accurate (that is, there is no leakage in the system), the missing beneficiaries are imputed. This is a standard approach within CEQ. However, imputation can influence results when the gap between directly identified beneficiaries in the survey and administrative numbers is wide (although not the case here). See forthcoming technical note by Phadera, Rodriguez and Wai-Poi.

30 Capped at JOD 200, NAF’s maximum benefit (JOD 180, but some households can receive a top-up, up to JOD 200). 31 This is possible as income questions are asked separately from social assistance questions in HEIS.

32 Analysis of HEIS indicates that households were reporting this compensation transfer as part of 'other MoSD government transfers' received, as there was a sharp spike in households reporting such transfers for households interviewed in the third quarter of survey collection (starting in February 2018; the compensation was introduced in January 2018). Nonetheless, the amounts reported in HEIS for this “other MoSD” transfer were significantly higher than the bread compensations should be, and consequently we preferred to simulate the transfer amount according to the administrative procedures.

33 For a programme reaching such a large proportion of the population, there is little value in trying to simulate the exact targeting as most of the bottom half of the distribution will receive it.

34 Water and electricity subsidy allocations and reform scenarios are not final; the figures presented here still need reconciliation with administrative records.

35 Electricity figures include a preliminary adjustment to match the share of households in each consumption block reported in administrative data.