rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Policy Research Working Paper 5644

# **Abstract**

In this paper, the authors investigate the effect of positive income shocks on the mental health of adolescent girls using experimental evidence from a cash transfer program in Malawi. They find that the provision of monthly cash transfers had a strong beneficial impact on the mental health of school-age girls during the twoyear intervention. Among baseline schoolgirls who were offered unconditional cash transfers, the likelihood of suffering from psychological distress was 38 percent lower than the control group, while the same figure was 17 percent if the cash transfers offers were made conditional on regular school attendance. The authors find no impact on the mental health of girls who had already dropped out of school at baseline. The beneficial effects of cash transfers were limited to the intervention period and dissipated quickly after the program ended.

This paper is a product of the Poverty and Inequality Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at bozler@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
negative demand shocks during the crisis reported less strict enforcement of labor regulations relative to other firms (Park, Giles, and Du 2011).

In addition, recognizing that migrant workers and new graduates may be hit hardest by layoffs and lack of employment opportunities in the wake of the crisis, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security expanded training programs to promote employment among these groups.<sup>13</sup> Targeted recipients included employees of enterprises facing financial difficulties, returned rural migrant workers without employment, unemployed registered college graduates who were new market entrants, and unemployed rural migrant workers living in urban areas. Furthermore, in early February 2009 the Central Committee of the Communist Party issued a document promoting employment of migrant workers.<sup>14</sup> Enterprises were encouraged to maintain migrant employment, and those enterprises facing difficulty were allowed to adopt reduced or flexible work hours and provided with subsidies for on-the-job training to maintain employment. Laid-off migrants who returned home were provided with subsidized credit, favorable tax treatment, and consultations to help with starting new businesses. Temporary income assistance through expansion of the rural minimum living standard support program (known as the _dibao_ ) also helped sustain migrants who returned home without jobs.

Unfortunately, neither active labor market programs nor interventions to support employment were implemented in a way that allowed proper evaluations of impact. Indeed, the only public documentary evidence on such programs, training interventions, and extensions of credit in the public domain is in the Ministry of Human Resources circulars directing local governments to implement such policies in a manner consistent with local conditions.

According to evidence from the rural household survey data, the robust recovery of labor demand following the stimulus was most important for the reemployment of rural registered workers who had lost jobs in the immediate wake of the crisis. Although the counterfactual gap in employment was still large in the first four months of 2009 (as shown in Figure 6), it was already beginning to narrow in percentage terms. By April 2009, Huang et al. (2011) estimate 14
# **References**

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Boyd, John H. and S.L. Graham, 1988, The profitability and risk effects of allowing bank holding companies to merge with other financial firms: a simulation study, Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 28, 1-25.

Boyd, John H., Stanley L. Graham and R. Shawn Hewitt, 1993, Bank holding company mergers with nonbank financial firms, Journal of Banking and Finance 17, 43-63.

Calomiris, Charles W., 1999, Building an incentive-compatible safety net, Journal of Banking and Finance 23, 1499-1519.

Calomiris, Charles W. and Charles M. Kahn, 1991, The role of demandable debt in optimal banking arrangements, American Economic Review 81, 497-513.

Caprio, Gerard, Jr., Asli Demirgüç-Kunt and Edward J. Kane, 2008, The 2007 meltdown in structured securitization: Searching for lessons not scapegoats, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, WPS4756.

Djankov, Simeon, La Porta, Rafael, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer, The law and economics of self-dealing, Journal of Financial Economics 88, 430-465.

DeYoung, Robert and Karin P. Roland, 2001, Product mix and earnings volatility at commercial banks: evidence from a degree of total leverage model, Journal of Financial Intermediation 10, 54-84.

Flannery, M., 1982, Retail bank deposits as quasi-fixed factors of production, American Economic Review 72, 527-36.

Gayle L. DeLong, 2001, Stockholder gains from focusing versus diversifying bank mergers, Journal of Financial Economics 59, 221-252.

Geyfman, Victoria, 2005, Banks in the securities business: market-based risk implications of section 20 subsidiaries, Working paper 05-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Kashyap, Anil K., Raghuram Rajan, and Jeremy C. Stein, 2002, Banks as liquidity providers: an explanation for the coexistence of lending and deposit-taking, Journal of Finance 57, 33073.

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# **Abstract**

Graduate education in business administration was developed in the U.S. around the turn of the twentieth century. MBA and similar graduate-level business programs took hold more slowly in other countries, but the number of such programs expanded more rapidly from the 1960s onward. In an effort to determine what firms from these countries require from business school graduates, the IFC used its extensive contacts with these firms to conduct a survey of the quality of business education in these countries. The survey results imply that the strengths and weaknesses of developing and transition country MBAs seem to overlap with those of MBAs from the U.S.: managers in the U.S. and in the developing countries find that the technical and analytical skills of MBAs are well developed while the practical training/skills and communication/language skills of MBAs are significantly lacking. On the whole, only the African and Middle Eastern firms were significantly dissatisfied with the quality of local MBA graduates. The survey results show that MBAs worldwide are not fully satisfying the needs of firms. Each of the other regions of the world has its own particular weaknesses, while at the same time some common weaknesses (such as work experience and communication skills) stand out. These results show that a ‘cookie-cutter’ approach to training MBAs cannot work. Rather, MBA programs have to be tailored to suit the needs of the local business community while also teaching common business fundamentals.

2
# **2. What should the objective of roads investment strategy be to ensure the highest benefits?**

This section uses empirical analysis to test out some of the causal relationships set out in section 1. Integration of agricultural market prices, which were analyzed in the recent CEM (World Bank 2007), is not analyzed. Nor do we consider the impact on farmer incomes of multiple markets or options for sale (Barat et al. (2008) show that having more options increases sales and prices received).

Instead, we first use UNHS data to look at the relationships between:

- (i) whether the household's share of their crop that is marketed increases per capita consumption - to answer the question of whether there are gains from trade;

- (ii) whether household road access and proximity (distance, time use) to markets affects the share of households' crop that is marketed;

- (iii) whether the mode of transport used to access markets (and the time taken) depends upon access to roads [triangulated with traffic counts];

- (iv) whether there are remoteness effects on percentage marketed and mode of vehicle use to access markets.

The main conclusions are that there is an overall downward trend of consumption as people move further away from markets, with regards to both time and distance, and, on average, consumption is highest closer to the large cities/markets, but sharply declines for those households more than 4.5 km away. This would mean that road network expansion is in dire needs to reduce poverty.

However, the picture is more complex. It appears to be a **distance/transport time ceiling;** income generation is marginally more constrained beyond one to two days walking distance from the markets. Moreover, the mode of transportation does not really impact income.

Next unique household and transportation data in three selected districts, which was collected for this study, are analyzed to explore the relationship between alternative transport costs, transport prices, and the net profitability of taking crops to market with the modes of transport farm households most commonly use. Based on the pattern of 14
**Figure 5.3: Effect of Exports on Unemployment Rate** (Response of the unemployment rate after a 1% growth in exposure to exports, in percentage points)

<!-- Start of picture text --> 0<br>-.02<br>-.04<br>-.06<br>-.08<br>Confidence interval<br>Coefficient<br>-.1<br>-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6<br>Years after foreign demand shock<br>Estimated Coefficient<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 5.4 shows the relative effect on district populations after a foreign demand shock. The effect is either zero or modest, likely smaller than percentage responses in employment and labor force. This differs from one of the assumptions in your theoretical model, that assumes free migration across regions. Any observed effect could be due to internal migration or to other drivers of population growth. For instance, we cannot distinguish whether changes in a district population are driven by relative changes in fertility rates or cross-district migration.<sup>5</sup> We could only do so with individual level data. Estimating the effect of trade shocks on population changes (or lack thereof) in a developing country like Indonesia with longitudinal data of individuals would be a fruitful avenue for future research.

> 5 In general, the Bartik shift-share coefficient will differ from the aggregate coefficient in the presence of spillovers or heterogeneous treatment effects and cannot be extrapolated to the aggregate effect unless under very strong assumptions of no spillovers. The effect on population suggests at least cross-region spillovers. How can we interpret the stable unit treatment values assumption (SUTVA) violations in our setting? Since migration is in the same direction of the employment treatment effect, if migrants take up some of the employment, we should interpret the effect as an upper bound to the (aggregate) effect without migration. Intuitively, this is similar to the canonical DiD using simulated data: the estimated coefficient might overstate actual _local_ increase in employment. Note that aggregate employment growth is _zero_ in the quantitative model.

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- 81 -

3.56 Ruminants, which include beef and dairy cattle, goats, sheep, and water buffalo, have the unique capability of digesting coarse, fibrous plant products, wastes, and by-products of agricultural processing and converting such cellulosic material into forms that humans can consume.20 Forages are the principal feed or ruminants, and production of such livestock is widespread in those areas that have abundant native or planted forage land. About 60 percent of the world's population of ruminants is in developing countries, primarily in S.uth Asia, Central and Western Asia, Africa, and South America. The productivity of these ruminants in producing food for humans is quite low, however. The amount of food they produce is about equal to that realized from the 8 percent of the world's ruminant population found in the United States. But goats and sheep in particular are an important source of food (and wool, skins, and other products) in those semi-arid regions where land is poorly suited to crop cultivation, and people in these areas are best able to take advantage of the ruminants' capacity to be *walking factories' which can harvest their own fead.

3.57 The countries of Southeast Asia have relatively little pasture land, and where it does exist, it tends to be far from population centers. For example, while 6 percent of Indonesia's forested and agricultural land is classified as pasture, most of it is on the outer islands, but 62 percent of the population in 1983 resided on Java, which has one of the highest population densities in the world.<sup>21</sup> Costs of transporting fresh **meat** and dairy products produced by ruminants from Indonesia's outer

- 20/ This section is drawn in part from two sources: Ruminants as Food Producerst Now and for the Future, Special Publication no. 4 (Ames, Ia.: Council for Agricultural Science and Technology, Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, March 1975) and Stephen D. Mink, 'Corn in the Livestock Economy,' in C. Peter Timmer, ed., The Corn Economy of Indonesia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987).

- 21/ Central Bureau of STatistics, Statistical Pocketbook of Indonesia, 1985 (Jakarta, 1986), p.34, pp.164-65.
As indicated above, integration of renewables using a collection of planning and operational models is still incompletely understood, with efforts to address the challenge being made only in recent years. Applications of such an approach to examine capacity and operational decisions specifically focusing on VRE are even more limited. This is a major issue especially for developing countries where planning is generally weak. The technical challenges of VRE can be significant in developing country systems that typically have no mechanism to provide spinning (on‐demand) reserve, and a weak transmission network.

In this study we build on previous dispatch and network analyses to assess the role that may be played by solar power in Bangladesh.<sup>3</sup> The emphasis in the analysis is to bring together the economics of solar and technical issues (namely variability of the resource, spinning reserve, transmission constraints), in both the long term and the short term. To illustrate the challenge for power sector planning in Bangladesh, there was a proposal to undertake a 500 MW solar project back in 2011, at a cost of $2.76 billion. Apart from being an expensive proposition for a country that was struggling to find good baseload generation options, analysis of past dispatch and spinning reserve practices showed that the lack of economic considerations in dispatch and shortage of spinning reserve during most peak hours pose a great challenge to accommodate large‐scale grid‐connected solar generation (Nikolakakis et al, 2016). A DIGSIELNT Australia (2016) study conducted for the World Bank also showed there are significant transmission constraints in the existing network. It is imperative that system planning incorporating renewables takes into consideration these constraints in a consistent way.

# Context: Bangladesh’s Power Sector

## Generation

Electricity generation in Bangladesh reached 50 Tera Watt‐hour (TWh) in 2016, with natural gas accounting for nearly 70% of the power supplied followed by oil (15%), coal (5%) and hydro (3%). Demand for power grew by 8% on average per year in the years between 2005 and 2015 (BPDB, 2016). Power demand growth mirrored a robust economic growth as real GDP (in constant US$) increased on average by 6.7% year‐on‐year over the same period (World Bank, 2017). To meet demand, the power generation capacity increased from 5 GW to nearly 11.5 GW over this period, mostly through investments in gas and oil‐fired generation by the private sector. Bangladesh liberalized power generation in 2005, while the government‐owned Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) retained its dominance over transmission (76.25% ownership). The growth in generation came largely from investments by independent power producers who now provide 46% of the electricity generated (BPDB, 2017).

> 3 The focus is on solar since wind resource quality is quite poor in the country.

3
share). In addition, it is also postulated that non-economic factors, such as geographical location and former colonial relationship, may explain the currency weights.

The size of the currency area formed by an anchor country is calculated by assuming that a G-5 country constitutes its own currency area; by decomposing every non-G-5 country into G-5 currency areas, based on the country's estimated G-5 currency weights; and by aggregating over all decomposed G-5 currency areas. For each developing country, the volume of trade with each G-5 currency area is computed according to this principle, and using bilateral trade data (average exports plus imports for the 1990-96 period) obtained from IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics."<sup>3</sup> In explaining the estimated G-5 currency weights, we have used a set of dummy variables that represent the country's geographical location and the past (or present) colonial status. First, 5 regional dummies are introduced: Africa, East Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. South Asia is the remaining regional dummy that is excluded to avoid linear dependence in regressor variables. Second, 3 colonial dummies are introduced: the French colony, the UK colony, and the former Soviet Union Republic dummy. Only when a country was a French or UK colony in year 1950 or was part of the forner Soviet Union at the time of its breakup, is the colonial dummy used.'<sup>4</sup> " For example, the estimated G-5 currency weights in the basket for the Thai baht are 0.82 for the US dollar (USD), 0.11 for the Japanese yen (JY), 0.05 for the Deutsche mark (DM), and 0.02 for the UK pound sterling (UKP). This means that 82 percent of Thailand belongs to the USD area, 11 percent to the JY area, 5 percent to the DM area, and 2 percent to the UKP area. Hence, any country that trades with Thailand is considered to trade with the USD, JY, DM and UKP areas according to these proportions. A country's total volume of trade with each G-5 currency area was obtained by summing up over all its trading partners' decomposed fractions of the G-5 currency area. See Kawai and Akiyama [1998] for a detailed explanation of this computation procedure. When there were non-G-5 currencies in a currency basket, the currency area formed by each non-G-5 currency was recursively decomposed into G-5 currency areas based on the latter's regression estimates.

14 It turns out that there were many countries that had colonial ties with France or the UK in 1950, but none with the US, Germany or Japan. The data source is an electronic text version of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), The World Factbook, 1998.

**11**
17 only 64% of trainees were aware that biogas residues can also be used to soak the seeds before they are planted, suggesting some scope for further optimization of biogas utilization.

# **_Suspension_**

Biogas, like other similar energy technologies, can be susceptible to problems with technical reliability and consumer acceptance. To sustain its benefits, it is vital to overcome such problems. National statistics indicate a high level of suspension. In 2007, of the 26.5 million biogas digesters installed in China’s rural areas, only 60% were operating normally (Chen et al. 2010b), with some sort of problem affecting the remainder. The majority of the suspension nationally occurred during the first year after installation and appears to be rooted in poor follow-up services (Chen et al. 2010b).

Our data echo this to some extent, though with one important nuance. First, among those that have ever adopted biogas, 36% expressed that they had at some point stopped using it for some reason and most of them (78 percent) during the first year. However, the suspension was often temporary and not necessarily related to any flaw in the equipment, but more often than not, related to temporarily having too few animals, sometimes in combination with cold winter temperatures that slow down digestion (Table 6).

Thus, in this sample, suspension of biogas appears to be temporary and related to having too few animals at some point during the year. Two-thirds of the households reporting an incident of biogas suspension cite issues with insufficient quantity of gas and too few animals to supply the dung needed to keep the system operating. These two reasons (insufficient gas and too few animals) amount to the same, as the key reason for insufficient gas production is shortage of animals, in particular pigs, which supply the feedstock for the digester. Animal ownership fluctuates over the year, as it is customary to sell or slaughter pigs in winter in time for the Lunar New Year celebration and to restock a few months
4 Lor developing countries in general, and for SSA in particular. Also a snapshot of the pLzfile of OSECs is provided.

Section IV deals with some of the distortions caused by export credit subsidies, including the problems of "moral hazard" and "adverse aelecti Section V briefly takes up the current need and prospects for external finance in the 1990s. Section VI addresses how to enhance the efficiency of OSECS, emphasizing the cooperation between ECAs and multilateral development agencies (MDAs), an issue particularly important for poorer developing countries such as those in SSA. Finally, Section VII sums up the conclusions.
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