protection. Our formal econometric approach is to estimate a two-stage model: the first stage examines determinants of the industry decision to pursue antidumping import protection and the second stage examines determinants of how much antidumping protection the national government affords. We focus on the post-1995 period because this is when antidumping use across all WTO members became guided by a common set of rules for policy application and international enforcement for cases in which the policy was misapplied. While there is a substantial literature examining the political-economic determinants of antidumping in the developed economies of the US and EU, there is little empirical research examining its use in developing countries, largely because of the prior lack of suitably disaggregated data. We exploit two newly available sources of relatively disaggregated data to examine these questions on a sample of nine developing country users (see again table 1) for a cross-section of 28 3-digit ISIC industries. We match product-level data on antidumping investigations, outcomes, and imports compiled from original government publications and now made available in the _Global Antidumping Database_ (Bown, 2005a) with industry-level production data from the World Bank’s _Trade, Production and Protection Database_ (Nicita and Olarreaga, 2006).

As a preview of our results, we present evidence from a two-stage econometric model indicating a pattern in industrial use of antidumping in developing countries once we control for the industryspecific and country-specific likelihood of pursuing an antidumping case and of a case resulting in imposition of an antidumping measure. First, we find evidence consistent with the theory of endogenous trade policy formation in the context of an antidumping law: larger industries that face substantial import competition are more likely to pursue an antidumping investigation, and larger and more concentrated industries receive greater antidumping protection from imports. Second, we find that AD-using industries do face the changing economic conditions consistent with the technical evidentiary criteria specified in the WTO Antidumping Agreement: industries that face rapidly falling import prices are more likely to pursue an investigation, and industries that are more susceptible to cyclical dumping due to greater capital investment expenditures and that face rapidly increasing competition from imports receive greater antidumping protection. These results are statistically and economically significant even when we focus on subsamples of data that exclude stereotypical AD-intensive industries such as steel and industrial chemicals.

The rest of this paper proceeds as follows. In the next section we describe the WTO Antidumping Agreement and draw on implications from the theory of endogenous trade policy to generate testable predictions regarding the characteristics of industries likely to pursue and be granted protection from imports under antidumping law. Section 3 presents the econometric model and describes the variable examine whether the users of AD have shrinking output (i.e., output growth relative to a benchmark), which may be more conclusive evidence of injury.

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