# Conclusion: Some lessons learned from African countries’ governance trajectory

While the aspirations set out in 2000 are still highly relevant – inclusive, representative, and accountable governance remains a prerequisite to sustainable and equitable growth – there is no linear pathway to achieving these goals. This paper’s journey through two decades of governance development offers several insights in that regard – which taken together call for more careful and nuanced thinking around governance reform in Africa.

First, the governance trajectories of African countries show that institution-building is a slow, protracted and deeply political process. As Andrews et al. (2017) demonstrate, if history is any indication, it takes decades or even centuries for developing countries to develop strong state capabilities. The 2017 World Development Report _Law and Governance_ explains why this is the case: the interests and incentives of key players shape their political commitment to the adoption and implementation of critical governance reforms. Several factors can come into play in that regard including economic rents and interests, electoral and other political incentives, or popular pressure. Thus, institutions are shaped by the distribution of power and tend to replicate the interests of those making the decisions. These strong feedback loops favor the persistence of power asymmetries and path dependencies.<sup>45</sup> Step changes in the quality of institutions require more than reforming rules and forms on paper; they require real shifts in the relative power and/or interests of those in a position to make, implement and enforce policy.

Second, the vast heterogeneity of African experiences shows that the ‘factors’ of success and failure are highly context-dependent and conjunctural. The aggregate picture of the state of governance belies the considerable heterogeneity and dynamism across the continent and even within states (across subnational entities or across institutions). Because institutions are embedded in and the product of the local political economy, they are responsive to context. Institutional shifts may develop over time from incremental change, may come in response to a major shock or crisis, or may emerge in particular spaces and moments of time as a result of the confluence of contextual factors. There are discernible patterns in countries that share certain characteristics, such as natural resource endowments. Oil, minerals and other extractives are indeed associated with higher levels of corruption; lower incentives to develop robust tax systems; and overall lower institutional quality.<sup>46</sup> The challenge is acute in SSA where the contribution of

> 45 For a theoretical discussion on path dependence in politics, understood as the conception that ‘preceding steps in a particular direction induce further movement in the same direction’ see Pierson, Paul. 2000. “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics”. _The American Political Science Review_ . Vol. 94, No. 2, pp. 251-267. In African countries, it can be argued that historical legacies include the long-term impact of decisions related to sectoral policies, public investments and organizational capabilities taken in the colonial and immediate post-independence period, or during other critical historical junctures. These policy, budget and organizational decisions taken in the past put countries in a path-dependent policy process, whereby the range of policy options available in the present is constrained by historical decisions and their outcomes (rather than current conditions).

> 46 For an overview of the resource curse literature see <mark>Ross, Michael L. (May 2015). "</mark> What Have We Learned about the Resource <mark>"</mark> Curse? <mark>.</mark> _<mark>Annual Review of Political Science</mark>_ <mark>. 18: 239–259.</mark>

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