the health workforce, notably labor market dynamics that are defined by demand and supply interactions (McPake et al, 2013; McPake et al., 2014). It should not be assumed that labor markets always “clear”, in other words that the supply and demand for workers perfectly match. There are a number of reasons for an imbalance between the demand and supply for workers. For example, prices may not adjust easily due to fixed wage rates established by legislative or bureaucratic processes, or tied to civil service schedules that make them relatively insensitive to the numbers of health workers employers either seek to hire or are willing to be employed. Other institutional rigidities, such as regulatory guidelines and trade unions, can also restrict the extent to which the number of workers demanded or supplied responds to price signals. These situations can lead to either a shortage (i.e., quantity demanded exceeds the quantity supplied) or surplus (i.e., quantity demanded falls behind the quantity supplied) of health workers. Further, the number of health workers estimated to be “needed” to achieve the national health goal of UHC may not necessarily coincide with the demand for health workers due to economic capacity and other market conditions in the health system. Countries may also face unemployment among health workers when the supply of health workers exceeds demand generated by the country’s underlying economic capacity to employ them. A labor market analysis will help to identify such mismatch of labor supply and demand, and lead to more effective policy design to address these issues (Araujo et al., 2016).

This study estimates the demand for health workers in 2030 (the year of SDGs achievement) as a function of economic, demographic and health coverage factors based on an economic model. The model assumes no change in technology or organization of health services, and thus projects the demand for health care as if the current system of health care and technology remains in place in 2030. We then compare this demand projection with the supply and the “needs” projections based on WHO SDG threshold density of 4.45 health workers per 1,000 population (WHO 2016), and discuss the potential policy implications of the findings.

# **Methods**

# _Theoretical framework_

The demand for health workers reflects the willingness to pay of the purchasers of health care (e.g. government, private sector firms), which in turn drives the demand for employing health workers in clinics, hospitals, public health centers and other parts of the health system. The demand for health workers is influenced by factors including household income (i.e. the ability of consumers to purchase health services), the fiscal capacity of the government to support the health system and employ public sector workers, demographic and epidemiologic conditions of the population (e.g., aging and burden of disease that determine the relative types of health services consumers want), and the level of health coverage in terms of risk pooling and financial protection available to enable consumers to access and utilize health care in times of need.

The supply of health workers can be defined as the total number of health professionals with the appropriate skills and qualifications who are willing to enter the job market in the health 3