adjusted health benefits using information from the S-HDI (D’Souza, Gatti and Kraay, 2019). We adjust health benefits to account for the income quintile gradient in under-five stunting rates.

In a second sensitivity scenario, we follow an _insurance approach_ to allocate health in-kind benefits. While typically in-kind benefits are assigned based on service utilisation, it can be argued that being able to access those services, even if they are not needed, is what matters to both households and for fiscal incidence analysis. This coverage is provided by health insurance, as it is in principle a mechanism to smooth the risk associated with the possibility of illness and unexpected costs for treatment. Thus, public health insurance is a valuable service independent of the actual use of health care services. We thus conduct an alternative scenario where we allocate health in-kind benefits to individuals that are publicly insured in the CIP and thus would be able to access health care if they need it. In Jordan, the uninsured are also de-facto covered, as they can receive treatment in public facilities at a fraction of the cost.

The benefit level is allocated using a unit cost approach, dividing the total public cost of health care provision (inpatient and outpatient) over the total number of people (Jordanians). Health insurance withholdings are deducted from the benefit for those who report making monthly contributions from their salary. As uninsured individuals also receive care from public health care providers but must pay small co-payments, they are allocated a discounted benefit (80 percent of the benefit accrued by insured individuals and without any deductions for contributions).

Insurance information is obtained from HEIS, as is information on health insurance withholdings. To distinguish the subsidised component of CIP in HEIS we use primarily information on participation in social assistance programmes as NAF beneficiaries are referred to the Ministry of Health to obtain an insurance card. In addition, poor uninsured households can apply to the Ministry of Social Development for referral; we simulate the conditions of eligibility<sup>44</sup> and randomly allocate among those the number that were benefitting from CIP through MoSD (15 thousand households). Insurance information is assigned at the household level based on the insurance status of the head or, if the head is older than 60 years old, based on the insurance status of the eldest household member (under 60 years old). According to this definition of insurance, 72 percent of Jordanians have some health insurance coverage. The Ministry of Health’s Civil Insurance Program (CIP) covers 33 percent of individuals, 3 percent of which are subsidised, the Royal Medical Services and the University Hospital cover another 28 percent or the population, 11 percent are privately insured or insured under other insurance providers.<sup>45</sup>

> 44 Household eligibility criteria used are: Jordanian; not benefiting from another health insurance program; total household income below JOP 300 per month; the household does not own more than one private use car, which should not be 7 or more years old; the household does not own livestock or animals with annual revenue of JOD 300; the household does not receive income from real state rental or shares and profits from firms. In addition, the household must have at least one eligible individual: children between 6-18 years old; students up to 25 years old in colleges/university; single non-working daughters; male sons above 18 years old who have a disability.

> 45 Using the individual report of insurance, 32 percent are uninsured, 32 percent are in the CIP and 27 percent in the Royal Medical Services or in the University Hospital, 10 percent are in private or other type of insurance.