rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
remarkable resilience. This section delves into four key adaptation strategies that have enabled the sector to conditions for sustained success. leverage disruptive operational We explore how these strategic adaptations are potentially reshaping economic dynamics and GVC structures within the sector, offering insights that could inform future resilience mechanisms for the broader agri-food industry. These adaptive strategies include:

**_Food Service to Retail_** As consumer habits shifted markedly from dining out to home cooking and healthier diets, demand for fresh produce surged (Beckman and Countryman, 2021).<sup>4</sup> The fruit and vegetables sector swiftly redirected its supply chains from food services to retail markets to accommodate rising demands in the US, Europe, and Asia. The closure of food services amplified the role of supermarkets and e-commerce, pivotal channels during the COVID-19 lock-downs, leading to sustained high retail volumes during the pandemic (Litton and Beavers, 2021).<sup>5</sup>

**_More Resilient Production and Supply Models_** Another critical adaptation was the diversification of the supply chain, mitigating risk and enhancing resilience. For example, Stevens and Teal (2024) shows that horizontal diversification has bolstered US firms’ resilience, particularly among small and medium-sized businesses. The pandemic further necessitated rapid logistical adjustments as traditional supply routes were disrupted by global lockdowns and trade restrictions (Singh et al., 2021). In response, suppliers expanded regional trade and diversified their import sources, effectively reducing their vulnerability to single points of failure. This strategic shift to more resilient supply models is elaborated further by Ando and Hayakawa (2022); Pahl et al. (2022); Lebastard and Serafini (2023), who all highlight how diversification strategies have enabled businesses

> 4For additional anecdotal evidence, refer to Brandwatch (2020); Supermarket News (2020); FoodNavigator (2020).

> 5Sales from leading stores grew in the two months after the beginning of the lock-downs in all major markets. Supermarket sales for food were up 19% in the US, and 17% in the UK by mid-May 2020, according to media sources. Walmart and Target saw a total sales increase of 11%, Tesco 8.7%, and Costco 7.3% over the same period of time. This is notable given pre-crisis growth rates of around -3% to -5%.

5
# **Can Political Empowerment Help Economic Empowerment? Women Leaders and Female Labor Force Participation in India**

Ejaz Ghani, Anandi Mani and Stephen D. O’Connell

**Keywords:** Women, gender, jobs, social protection, social inclusion, shared prosperity, decentralization, sub-national development, political reservations, development, India, South Asia.

**JEL Classification:** J16, L26, L60, L80, M13, O10, P16, J15

_Author institutions and contact details:_ <u>Ghani: World Bank, Eghani@worldbank.org; Mani:</u> University of Warwick, <u>a.mani@warwick.ac.uk; O’Connell: CUNY Graduate Center, soconnell@gc.cuny.edu.</u> _Acknowledgments_ : This paper was prepared with the financial support from World Bank. Mehtabul Azam and Mahesh Dahal provided valuable insights regarding NSS data. We would also like to thank Mani Shankar Iyer, Prabir De, Bhisma Rout, and Nupur Tewari for helpful discussions on the Panchayat system. Any remaining errors are our own. The views expressed here are those of the authors and not of any institution with which they may be associated.
45

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36
Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4470

# **Abstract**

Several studies addressing the supply and demand for food in China suggest that the nation can largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However, these studies do not consider the effects of climate change. This paper examines whether near future expected changes in climate are likely to alter this picture. The authors analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues using a cross section consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results of the Ricardian analysis demonstrate that global warming is likely to be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be very different in each region. The mid latitude region of China may benefit from warming but the southern and northern regions are likely to be damaged by warming. More precipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in the wet southeast. Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similar responses to precipitation but not to temperature. Warmer temperatures may benefit irrigated farms but they are likely to harm rainfed farms. Finally, seasonal effects vary and are offsetting. Although we were able to measure the direct effect of precipitation and temperature, we could not capture the effects of change in water flow which will be very important in China. Can China continue feeding itself if climate changes? Based on the empirical results, the likely gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset the losses that will occur to other farmers in China. If future climate scenarios lead to significant reductions in water, there may be large damages not addressed in this study.

This paper—a product of the Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the department to mainstream research on climate change and policy implications. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at jxwang.ccap@ igsnrr.ac.cn, robert.mendelsohn@yale.edu, and adinar@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
countries participating in both are 0.87 in math and 0.97 in science, and they are 0.86 in both math and science across the 21 countries participating both in the TIMSS 1999 tests and the PISA 2000/02 tests. Similarly, there is a high correlation at the country level between the curriculum based student tests of TIMSS and the practical literacy adult examinations of IALS (Hanushek and Zhang (2006)). Tests with very different foci and perspectives tend, nonetheless, to be highly related, lending support to our approach of aggregating different tests for each country.

The general idea behind our approach to aggregation is that of empirical calibration. We rely upon information about the overall distribution of scores on each test to compare national responses. This contrasts with the psychometric approach to scaling that calls for calibrating tests through use of common elements on each test. In reality, each of the testing situations described below is a separate activity with no general attempt to provide common scaling.

The strength of our approach is that different tests across a common subject matter tend to be highly correlated at both the individual and aggregate level. Thus, the distributional information that we use is closely related to variations in individual performance levels.

As shown in Table A4.1, there are data from international student achievement tests on twelve international testing occasions. Containing separate tests in different subjects and at different age groups, these testing occasions yield 36 separate test observations altogether, each with between 11 and 45 participating countries with internationally comparable performance data. Most of the tests were conducted by the IEA, with the exception of the OECD-conducted PISA tests.<sup>59</sup> In order to make performance on the different international tests comparable, Hanushek and Wößmann (in process) develop a common metric to adjust both the level of test performance and the variation of test performance through two data transformations. First, because the United States has both participated in all of the international tests and has maintained its own longitudinal testing (the NAEP), Hanushek and Wößmann (in process) calibrate the U.S. international performance over time to the external standard – thus benchmarking each of the separate international tests to a comparable level. Second, while this provides a relative comparison of countries taking each test over time, it is also necessary to establish the variance on the tests so that direct compatibility of countries taking different 59 In this study, we do not include the two tests conducted by the International Assessment of Educational Progress (IAEP) in 1988 and 1991, because they used the U.S. NAEP test as their testing instrument, which is geared to the U.S. curriculum and may thus introduce bias to the international testing. By contrast, the tests included here are not associated with the curriculum in any particular country, but have been devised in an international cooperative process between all participating countries.

48
|**Topic**|**Country**|**Reference**|**Methodology**|**Intervention**|**Area**|**Child Labor Outcomes**|**Age**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Public Works<br>Program|Sierra Leone|Rosas and<br>Sabarwal<br>(2016)|RCT|The PWP was targeted at individuals in<br>the 15 – 35 year age group in poor and<br>vulnerable communities. Beneficiaries<br>were entitled to a minimum of 50 days<br>and a maximum of 75 days of work at a<br>dailywage rate of about US$1.80.|Urban<br>and<br>Rural|Participation in paid activities in the<br>last 12 months|6-14|
|Child Labor<br>Measurement|Tanzania|Dillon et al.<br>(2012)|RCT|Survey design was randomized into 4<br>groups (i)two different questionnaire<br>designs (detailed and short) and (ii)two<br>respondent types (proxy and self report).<br>self-reporting. Use of a short module<br>compared with a more detailed<br>questionnaire|Urban<br>and<br>Rural|Participation in economic activities<br>over the past week|10–15|
|UCT|Zambia|Handa et al<br>(2015)|RCT|Program targets any household with a<br>child under 3 years old in three districts<br>with high poverty and rates of infant<br>mortality and under-nutrition. Recipient<br>households receive a flat (i.e. irrespective<br>of household size) transfer of US$12 a<br>month. There are no conditions to<br>receive the money.|Rural|Children engaged in paid and<br>unpaid work activities|4-14|

37
# **Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy: Survey and Experimental Evidence from Papua New Guinea**

Christopher Hoy, Terence Wood and Ellen Moscoe<sup>**1**</sup> <u>JEL codes: I12, I15, I18, D90, D91</u> <u>Key words: COVID-19, Vaccine Hesitancy, Survey experiment</u>

> 1 Christopher Hoy is the corresponding author (choy@worldbank.org). Christopher Hoy and Ellen Moscoe are in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice at the World Bank. Terence Wood is in the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. We would like to thank Rinku Murgai, Aneesa Arur, Stephanie Laryea, Jane Millicent Sprouster, Judy Yang, Mesulame Ratu Namedre, Samantha De Martino, Ririn Salwa Purnamasari, David Gould, Luke McKenzie and Da Woon Chung for their useful comments. We appreciate additional support provided by Rochelle Se Yun Eng, Kristen Himelein and Jim Waldersee. We are grateful for funding provided by GAVI, the Korea Trust Fund for Economic and Peace-Building Transitions, and USAID (through the PNG UNICEF office).
19

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LIBERIA’S INFRASTRUCTURE: A CONTINENTAL PERSPECTIVE

|Operating cost recovery|% total costs|55.6|**100**|110|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Connections per employee|number|95.7|**195.5**|158.6|
|Total hidden costs as % of revenue|%|286.7|**102.7 **|121.4|
|U.S. cents per m3|**Liberia**|Scarce wat|er resources|Other developing<br>regions|
|Residential tariff (at 10 m3)<br>Non-residential tariff (at 100 m3)|**44.5**<br>**221.3**||60.3<br>120.7|3.0 – 60.0|

*Access data for Liberia is taken from the Demographic and Health Survey 2007 to ensure comparability with the benchmarks. More recent data and comprehensive data exist from the 2008 National Census.

** Utility data are taken from the AICD utility database for 2005. The year 2005 is used to ensure consistency across countries benchmarked. Source: Banerjee and others 2009; Morella and others 2009, derived from AICD water and sanitation utilities database downloadable from http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/tools/data **.**

According to the 2010 Joint Monitoring Program (JMP), access to improved water sources increased from 58 percent in 1990 to 68 percent in 2008 (table 6). Over the same period, however, access to piped water fell from 11 percent to 2 percent. The resulting shortfall was met by an expansion in intermediate options, such as stand posts and boreholes, although the exact mix of this expansion is hard to determine from the survey evidence.

# **Challenges**

The JMP reports that access to improved sanitation in Liberia rose from 11 percent in 1990 to 17 percent in 2008. Over the same period, however, open defecation increased from 44 to 47 percent (table 6). The availability of unimproved facilities, such as traditional latrines, seems to have fallen significantly.

**Table 6. Long-term trends in access to improved water and sanitation**

||<br>|Joint Monitoring Progr<br>|am<br>|
|---|---|---|---|
||1990|2000|2008|
|Water||||
|Total improved|58|65|68|
|Piped on premises|11|7|2|
|Other improved|47|58|66|
|Unimproved|42|35|32|
|Sanitation||||
|Improved|11|14|17|
|Shared facilities (unimproved)|16|18|20|
|Unimproved facilities|27|22|14|
|Open defecation|44|46|47|

Source: UNICEF-WHO Joint Monitoring Program 2010.

In addition to problems of access in the country, deficiencies in the operation of the water utility have led to significant hidden costs. In particular, the revenue collection ratio stood at 63 percent in 2005, but had improved to 75 percent in 2006, the last year for which data was available. This is still substantially below the benchmarks of 90 to 100 percent. Distribution losses, though far from best practice, are comparable to the benchmarks. There is also evidence of significant over-manning, with only 61 15
in area (if changes were due to natural causes or illegal encroachment by outsiders)<sup>5</sup> .

Table 1: Payment schedule 2011-2014

|Modality|Zone|Ecosystem|Deforestation<br>risk|Payment<br>per ha<br>in pesos|% eligible<br>area|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Hydrologi|cal|||||
||1|Cloud forest|Very high|1,100|0.13|
||2|Cloud forest|High, medium, low|700|2.9|
||3|Pine, oak, semi-deciduous<br>tropical|All risk levels|382|11.6|
|Biodiversi|ty|||||
||4|Rainforest|All risk levels|550|39.7|
||5|Dry tropical forest,|High & very high|382|8.9|
|||Mangroves|All risk levels|||
||6|Dry tropical forest|Medium, low, very low|280|36.8|
|||Arid and semi-arid|All risk levels|||

Payment levels extracted from program rules of operation provided by CONAFOR and forest types verified through discussion with CONAFOR. Deforestation risk is set according to spatial layers from the Mexican National Institute for Ecology and Climate Change (INECC). Modalities refers to the type of ecosystem service being targeted, and percent eligible area is the percent of the area within which applications are accepted that are found in each of the listed payment zones.

Table 1 displays current per hectare payments set by CONAFOR, which vary by ecosystem type and level of deforestation risk. If a property has land in more than one payment class, the payment per hectare is a spatially weighted average of the land types. Although the payment levels in principle have a wide spread, there is little land that qualifies for the two highest payment classes, so average payments are below the average of the classes.

The magnitude of the total payments given to communities is relatively large compared to wages but has a high variance across communities. In our sample, the average annual per capita payment for common property households (if it were distributed as lump sum payments) is $340 USD, around one month of minimum wage salary. Program funds are deposited into the com-

> 5We do not have quantitative information on the number of contracts reduced or cancelled. Conversations with officials at CONAFOR suggest that cancellation and reduction do happen but have affected only a small percentage of properties. Costedoat et al. (2015) address this issue in Chiapas.

8