**Table 5. Manufacturing: Effects of Improved Growth in China and India (percent relative to base, 2020)**

|Regions|Textiles|Apparel|Leather|Wood|Minerals|Chemicals|Metals|Auto|Machinery|Electronics|Other|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Australia &|-6.9<sup>a</sup>|-8.6|-8.5|-1.3|-1.1|-0.8|-4.1|-2.4|-6.7|-5.9|-8.4|
|New Zealand|_-15.3_<sup>_b_</sup>|_-15.5_|_-13.7_|_-1.5_|_0.2_|_-3.4_|_-3.9_|_-6.3_|_-13.9_|_-18.5_|_-15.3_|
|China|35.5|20.3|39.4|41.6|36.8|42.9|38.5|34.8|37.6|35.8|30.5|
||_30.0_|_20.5_|_45.2_|_34.7_|_36.3_|_39.2_|_34.8_|_40.9_|_40.2_|_58.2_|_33.1_|
|Japan|-1.6|-6.0|-5.3|-1.1|-1.0|-2.3|-2.7|-3.9|-6.6|-4.8|-4.2|
||_15.1_|_-8.0_|_-8.1_|_-1.0_|_-0.6_|_-1.4_|_-1.9_|_-6.6_|_-9.0_|_-10.7_|_-6.8_|
|Korea|-1.3|-2.1|-1.6|0.4|-0.6|-1.7|1.7|-3.0|-1.9|0.0|-7.7|
||_10.0_|_-3.7_|_10.6_|_4.1_|_-0.8_|_2.7_|_3.9_|_-9.2_|_-7.0_|_-7.9_|_-11.7_|
|Hong Kong|-5.9|-7.3|-7.1|-2.2|-1.7|-4.8|-5.0|-3.6|-5.7|-2.9|-15.8|
|<br>& Taiwan*|_1.7_|_-1.0_|_-4.3_|_-2.5_|_-3.9_|_-2.2_|_-8.8_|_-10.0_|_-10.7_|_-10.6_|_-26.3_|
|Indonesia|-9.2|-11.7|-7.7|4.6|-2.6|0.3|-5.9|-0.5|-1.2|-1.4|-10.6|
||_-15.6_|_-21.4_|_-20.0_|_15.4_|_-3.4_|_0.9_|_-8.9_|_-2.8_|_-4.4_|_-12.0_|_-19.2_|
|Malaysia|-7.5|-15.8|-5.7|0.6|-1.3|1.9|-1.6|-1.1|-4.6|-0.2|-3.6|
||_-7.3_|_-27.4_|_-4.2_|_5.1_|_0.5_|_4.4_|_1.2_|_-2.4_|_-5.9_|_-3.5_|_-5.5_|
|Philippines|-7.4|-15.7|-8.7|-0.2|-0.3|3.9|0.1|0.0|-0.2|-4.0|-6.4|
||_-14.3_|_-25.7_|_-17.0_|_1.9_|_1.3_|_5.5_|_2.6_|_0.4_|_4.0_|_-13.9_|_-9.9_|
|Singapore|-8.0|-8.1|-11.2|-0.6|2.1|0.7|2.0|-3.6|-1.8|3.4|-10.9|
||_-7.9_|_-16.9_|_-21.7_|_1.6_|_3.9_|_0.8_|_5.0_|_-11.4_|_-2.5_|_5.2_|_-20.3_|
|Thailand|-5.1|-5.0|-6.0|1.5|-0.6|2.0|0.5|0.5|-1.4|4.6|-8.1|
||_-9.1_|_-9.5_|_-13.9_|_6.5_|_0.3_|_3.0_|_2.2_|_0.3_|_-3.7_|_6.2_|_-15.5_|
|Vietnam|-8.9|-19.3|-5.6|-0.9|0.3|-1.1|-4.9|-4.7|-7.7|-4.8|-6.6|
||_-15.6_|_-35.5_|_-11.9_|_-0.1_|_1.0_|_2.4_|_-8.4_|_-8.0_|_-12.8_|_-12.6_|_-10.4_|
|Rest of|-6.3|-3.6|-3.4|0.7|0.7|-0.5|-1.2|-0.4|-3.5|-0.5|-0.8|
|S. East Asia|_-12.4_|_-6.2_|_-5.6_|_9.1_|_1.4_|_-2.4_|_-2.1_|_-1.1_|_-6.0_|_-2.4_|_-1.2_|
|India|35.1|23.3|41.4|39.8|30.7|30.6|33.9|30.6|29.2|30.7|23.5|
||_26.2_|_11.1_|_45.5_|_32.1_|_33.9_|_33.1_|_34.0_|_30.0_|_41.5_|_36.5_|_15.6_|
|Rest of|-2.7|-12.4|-1.2|0.7|-1.6|-0.4|3.8|-1.5|-3.2|-0.2|-6.4|
|South Asia|_-6.4_|_-25.5_|_-6.3_|_2.3_|_-1.9_|_-1.2_|_10.5_|_-3.8_|_-8.1_|_-8.9_|_-11.6_|
|Canada|-4.4|-8.3|-3.7|-1.4|-2.4|-4.0|-2.1|0.0|-4.1|-2.2|-12.7|
||_-5.8_|_-14.9_|_-3.7_|_-1.1_|_-2.6_|_-3.8_|_-4.3_|_-1.0_|_-8.5_|_-11.0_|_-20.5_|
|USA|-5.4|-8.7|-4.3|-0.2|0.1|0.9|-0.7|-0.2|-2.5|-3.5|-10.5|
||_-10.5_|_-15.3_|_-6.4_|_0.3_|_0.2_|_1.4_|_-1.0_|_-0.4_|_-4.2_|_-11.0_|_-16.7_|
|Mexico|-2.1|-2.2|-0.8|0.2|0.1|0.9|-0.3|0.7|-4.1|-3.8|-6.5|
||_-3.9_|_-3.6_|_-1.3_|_1.2_|_0.8_|_1.6_|_0.4_|_2.0_|_-5.7_|_-13.2_|_-10.1_|
|Argentina &|-2.0|-1.1|-6.6|-1.0|-1.0|-2.0|-3.2|-1.8|-4.5|-3.1|-2.9|
|Brazil|_-3.4_|_-1.8_|_-8.4_|_-0.9_|_0.0_|_-2.8_|_-4.5_|_-2.5_|_-7.4_|_-8.0_|_-4.9_|
|Rest of Latin|-4.5|-4.2|-3.4|-0.5|-0.2|-0.3|-2.8|-1.3|-5.5|-5.3|-8.8|
|America|_-9.5_|_-7.9_|_-6.1_|_0.4_|_1.1_|_-1.4_|_-2.6_|_-2.5_|_-9.9_|_-15.1_|_-14.4_|
|EU 25 &|-5.6|-9.7|-5.0|0.0|-0.4|-1.8|-0.7|-0.4|-2.4|-2.5|-3.9|
|EFTA|_-9.9_|_-16.8_|_-8.5_|_0.8_|_-0.5_|_-3.0_|_-1.3_|_-1.3_|_-5.0_|_-11.7_|_-6.6_|
|Former|-2.6|-4.7|-1.4|-0.5|-1.9|-1.1|-3.3|-0.3|-4.4|-3.1|-3.2|
|Soviet Union|_-5.8_|_-9.4_|_-4.2_|_0.8_|_-2.2_|_-1.6_|_-2.9_|_0.1_|_-7.9_|_-6.6_|_-5.7_|
|Middle East|-8.6|-18.6|-2.6|-0.7|-0.5|-5.8|-6.6|-3.2|-8.3|-7.2|-9.1|
|& N. Africa|_-14.8_|_-29.4_|_-3.7_|_-0.7_|_0.3_|_-5.9_|_-6.5_|_-4.9_|_-12.9_|_-15.9_|_-13.4_|
|Sub-Saharan|-4.6|-5.5|-4.1|0.0|-0.1|0.3|-2.3|-3.8|-8.4|-7.4|-7.6|
|Africa|_-10.4_|_-10.3_|_-7.7_|_0.6_|_1.2_|_-2.0_|_1.4_|_-8.5_|_-16.1_|_-24.9_|_-13.3_|
|Rest of|-2.9|-7.7|-1.7|1.1|-0.1|0.0|-1.2|-0.3|-1.9|-1.8|-14.3|
|the World|_-5.3_|_-12.9_|_-4.1_|_2.5_|_-0.1_|_-1.4_|_-2.6_|_-0.7_|_-4.7_|_-7.0_|_-24.0_|

Source: Authors’ simulations with modified GTAP model; see details in text. * Hong Kong, China and Taiwan, China. a For each partner numbers in the first row are results for the case of improved growth in China and India. b For each partner numbers in the second row are results for the case of improved growth and quality exports in China and India.

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