# Table of Contents

|**LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................................................... 3**|
|---|
|**LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4**|
|**INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................................................... 5**|
|URBANCENTERS OFSOUTHEASTEUROPE........................................................................................................................................... 6|
|**METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................................................................... 7**|
|DATA................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7|
|QUANTILEDELTAMAPPING POST-PROCESSING FORCMIP6SIMULATIONS............................................................................. 8|
|ESTIMATING COOLING DEMANDS............................................................................................................................................................ 9|
|SIMULATING THE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM CAPACITY DESIGN PROCESS......................................................................................... 9|
|SIMULATING SYSTEM RELIABILITY BY SIMULATING THE NUMBER OF DEMAND EVENTS THAT ECLIPSE THE DESIGN|
|CAPACITY OVER THE SYSTEM LIFETIME.............................................................................................................................................. 11|
|ESTIMATING THE COST OF DISRUPTIONS............................................................................................................................................. 12|
|**RESULTS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 14**|
|PROJECTIONS OF UNDER-SUPPLY DISRUPTION FREQUENCY.......................................................................................................... 14|
|PROJECTIONS OF ECONOMIC COSTS FROM UNDER-SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS................................................................................. 16|
|DEPENDENCE ON DESIGN PARAMETERS.............................................................................................................................................. 20|
|_Dependence on design record length ........................................................................................................................................... 20_|
|_Dependence on design year (2021 to 2090) ............................................................................................................................... 21_|
|**MITIGATING THE COSTS OF OUTAGES AND NAVIGATING THE UNCERTAINTY OF**<br>**PROJECTIONS ........................................................................................................................................................................ 21**|
|**CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 23**|
|**REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................................... 25**|
|**SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL ...................................................................................................................................... 28**|
|QUANTILEDELTAMAPPING DETAILS................................................................................................................................................. 28|
|THE IMPACT OF A15%RESERVE MARGIN.......................................................................................................................................... 29|
|THE IMPACT OF CONSIDERING BOTH HEATING A COOLING DEMAND......................................................................................... 29|
|THE IMPACT OF DIFFERING DESIGN METHODOLOGIES.................................................................................................................... 31|
|DEPENDENCE ON DESIGN METHODOLOGY RESULTS....................................................................................................................... 32|
|IDEALIZED DESIGN PROCESS AND SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY.................................................................................................... 33|
|**APPENDIX 1: CHANGES IN THE EXTREME PEAK HEATING AND COOLING DEMANDS OVER THE**<br>**FIRST HALF OF THE 21ST CENTURY FOR GLOBAL CITIES ........................................................................... 36**|

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