|**Table of Contents**|
|---|
|Summary.........................................................................................................................................5|
|List of Acronyms............................................................................................................................7|
|List of Tables..................................................................................................................................7|
|List of Figures................................................................................................................................8|
|1. Rationale...............................................................................................................................10|
|2. Introduction..........................................................................................................................11|
|2.1. Monitoring incidence...................................................................................................11|
|2.1.1. Empirical measurements of HIV prevalence used to inform incidence<br>estimates ...............................................................................................................12|
|2.1.1.1.<br>ANC Sentinel Surveillance...................................................................12|
|2.1.1.2.<br>Demographic and Health Surveys/AIDS Indicator Surveys............13|
|2.1.2. Empirical measurement of HIV incidence ....................................................14|
|2.1.2.1.<br>Cohort studies and ALPHA Network..................................................14|
|2.1.2.2.<br>Laboratory assays................................................................................15|
|2.1.3. Modelled incidence .........................................................................................15|
|2.2. Effect of ART on prevalence data...............................................................................18|
|3. Methods of analysis.............................................................................................................20|
|4. Analysis of incidence trends...............................................................................................20|
|4.1. Countries with a stabilized incidence trend..............................................................22|
|4.1.1. Burkina Faso.......................................................................................................22|
|4.1.2. Burundi...............................................................................................................23|
|4.1.3. Uganda................................................................................................................24|
|4.2. Countries with a modest downward trend ..............................................................25|
|4.2.1. Central African Republic..................................................................................26|
|4.2.2. Congo.................................................................................................................27|
|4.2.3. Ethiopia..............................................................................................................28|
|4.2.4. Ghana.................................................................................................................29|
|4.2.5. Kenya..................................................................................................................30|
|4.2.6. Nigeria................................................................................................................31|
|4.2.7. Rwanda..............................................................................................................32|
|4.2.8. Tanzania.............................................................................................................33|
|4.3. Countries with a moderate downward trend .........................................................34|
|4.3.1. Lesotho..............................................................................................................34|
|4.3.2. South Africa.......................................................................................................35|
|4.3.3. Zimbabwe..........................................................................................................38|
|4.4. Countries with a steep downward trend .................................................................39|
|4.4.1. Botswana...........................................................................................................39|
|4.4.2. Malawi...............................................................................................................40|
|4.4.3. Mozambique.....................................................................................................41|
|4.4.4. Namibia..............................................................................................................42|

3