the share attained in 2021 in 2023. While lower input prices led profits to recover to US$397/ha in 2023, this was only 54% of the 2021 level.

Price data in appendix table A3 reinforce this narrative by illustrating that (i) output prices for main crops almost halved in 2022; (ii) with unit transport cost increasing by 48% over pre-war levels in 2022, prices for imported fertilizers more than doubled and those for other inputs increased markedly directly after the invasion; (iii) prices for locally produced services or inputs increased markedly in 2022 but largely returned to within 10% of their pre-war levels by 2023; and (iv) output prices for all crops except soybean declined further from their 2022 levels in 2023, resulting in a modest rebound of farm profitability.

Panel B of table 2 uses survey data to support the notion that price changes are the main channel through which the war affected agricultural outcomes in our sample. About 8% of respondents suffered direct damage to structures or land through the war. The number of family members working full-time on farms which had remained unchanged between 2021 and 2022 increased by about 30% from 2022 to 2023, from 1.5 to 2, and 0.72 to 0.89, with a 24% increase in part-time workers from 0.72 to 0.89, though the number of permanent employees did not change. The share of those receiving public support fluctuated between 32% and 40% with only marginal fluctuations in the amount received per household. While respondents’ subjective rating of their situation had dropped sharply from 2021 to 2022, it improved slightly since then.

Despite the drop in profitability, data on land prices and intentions to expand operated area suggest that fundamentals in agriculture remain favorable as compared to the alternatives: lease prices remained largely unchanged, partly because contracts are long term and may be difficult to renegotiate. Although the share declined slightly, from 85% in 2022 to 79% in 2023, more than three in four farmers indicate they want to lease more land at the current lease price if conditions return to normal. With 74%, down from 79% in 2022, interest in buying land, at a per hectare price almost unchanged from 2022 (US$ 1,473 in 2023 vs. 1,540 in 2022), remains high. While credit rationing was widespread, the share of those able to access credit declined only slightly, from, 25% in 2022 to 22% in 2023 although average loan size decreased from $ 84,689 in 2022 to $ 70,755 in 2023 and the interest rate increased significantly, from 4.6% to 8.8%.

# **3.2 PSG access**

Table 3 panel A compares farm characteristics in 2022 and 2023 for PSG eligible survey respondents (i.e., those cultivating less than 120 ha) who did (columns 1 and 2) and did not (columns 6 and 7) receive a grant, respectively.<sup>21</sup> Both groups seem largely similar in terms of endowments and trends regarding labor and machinery, mirroring general trends observed earlier in terms of satisfaction and access to markets for land

> 21 Appendix table A4 presents summary statistics by PSG participation and eligibility criteria while appendix table A5 replicates table 3 by restricting only to farms located within 50 km from the frontline, suggesting the figures are comparable to national ones.

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