Table 1. Cross Region Transfer Impact Multiplier Estimates

||**Permane**<br>(Social Se|**nt Tr.**<br>curity)|**T**<br>(2001 a|**emporar**<br>nd 2008 S|**y Transfers**<br>timulus Paym|ents)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Depend<br>Labor In<br>(1952-1|ent Varia<br>come<br>974)|ble is quarter<br>Labor In<br>(2001–2|ly growth<br>come<br>008)|in real per ca<br>GDP<br>(2005–2|pita:<br> <br>008)|
|Specification varies by row:|Multiplier|Obs.|Multiplier|Obs.|Multiplier|Obs.|
|_Panel A. Impact_<br>|_multiplier esti_<br>|_mates for_<br>|_main specifi_<br>|_cations_<br>|||
|A1. Parsimonious Specification|1.47|4413|0.26|1588|0.39|742|
|(no additional controls)|(0.49)||(0.08)||(0.16)||
|A2. Benchmark Specification|1.29|4413|0.31|1588|0.41|742|
|(controls for population growth &|(0.54)||(0.09)||(0.18)||
|US GDP Growth×State FEs)|||||||
|<br>_Panel B. Impact multiplier estima_<br>|_tes with add_<br>|_itional eco_<br>|_nomic contr_<br>|_ols (added_<br>|_one-by-one)_<br>||
|B1. Controlling for US GDP Growth|1.14|4413|0.31|1588|0.42|742|
|×State fixed effects|(0.53)||(0.09)||(0.18)||
|B2. Controlling for Oil Prices (and lag)<br>×State fixed effects|1.57<br>(0.50)|4413|0.27<br>(0.08)|1588|0.42<br>(0.15)|742|
|B3. Controlling for state-specific<br>|1.71<br>|4413|0.25<br>|1588|0.41<br>|742|
|quadratic trends|(0.45)||(0.08)||(0.17)||
|B4. Controlling for state manufacturing<br>GDP share×quarter fixed effects|0.92<br>(0.45)|4413|0.25<br>(0.09)|1588|0.41<br>(0.17)|742|
|B5. Controlling for Social Security<br>back payments|1.51<br>(0.51)|4413|-||-||
|B6. Controlling for 2001/08 recession<br>depth×aggregate transfer size|-||0.26<br>(0.08)|1588|0.39<br>(0.16)|742|
|_Panel C. Impact multiplier estim_|_ates with add_|_itional dy_|_namic contro_|_ls (added_|_one-by-one)_||
|C1. Controlling for lagged log income|1.53<br>(0.57)|4413|0.26<br>(0.08)|1588|0.47<br>(0.16)|742|
|C2. Controlling for lagged dependent|1.18|4281|0.23|1577|0.37|686|
|variable|(0.51)||(0.08)||(0.15)||
|C3. Controlling for lagged transfers|1.36<br>|4413|0.21<br>|1588|0.45<br>|742|
||(048)||(009)||(024)||
|_Panel D. Impact multipli_|.<br>_er estimates f_|_or other s_|.<br>_amples or IV_|_specifica_|.<br>_tions_||
|D1. Excluding influential states or|1.43|4051|0.26|1556|0.43|727|
|years|(0.69)||(0.10)||(0.21)||
|D2. Instrumenting Social Security|1.88|4413|0.20|1588|0.36|742|
|<br>transfers or other current transfers|(0.59)||(0.07)||(0.14)||
|IVfirst stageF-statistics:|522||882||843||
|State and quarter fixed effects|All Specifi|cations|All Specifi|cations|All Specifi|cations|

_Notes:_ Each cell reports the impact multiplier of a regression of growth in per capita labor income (Columns 1 and 2) or GDP (Column 3) on the scaled change in permanent Social Security benefits (Column 1) or temporary stimulus transfers (Columns 2 and 3), as in Equation 2. All specifications have state and quarter fixed effects (FEs). The main results are in Panel A: Row A1 is a parsimonious specification with no further controls, and Row A2 is a benchmark specification used in figures (except scatter plots) with controls for US GDP growth × state FEs and population growth. Panels B and C add controls one-by-one to the parsimonious specification. Row B1 adds US GDP growth × state FEs; Row B2 adds state FE × log(OilPrt), log(OilPrt-1); Row B3 adds state FEs × t, t<sup>2</sup> ; Row B4 adds the manufacturing share of state GDP × time FE; Row B5 controls for ad-hoc temporary Social Security backpayments ( _t_ and _t-1_ ). Row B6 controls for the interaction between the depth of the 2001/08 recessions in each state and the mean transfer variable each quarter. Panel C Row 1 controls for the lagged log level of per capita labor income (Columns 1 and 2) or per capita GDP (Column 3). Panel C Row 2 adds a control for the lagged dependent variable. Panel C Row 3 adds a control for the lagged transfer variable. Panel D Row 1 drops influential states or years from the parsimonious specification, as identified by leave-one-out regressions in Appendix 3 and scatter plots; for permanent transfers: years 1952 and 1972; for temporary transfers: Mississippi. Panel D Row 2 reports estimates from an instrumental variables (IV) specification, where all BEA social security 17 transfers (Column 1) or “All other personal current transfer receipts” (Columns 2 and 3) are instrumented with the constructed transfer measures used in the other rows. First stage coefficients are close to one (across Columns 1–3: 0.8, 1.1 and 1.1, respectively). Coefficients on controls are not reported. Outliers |growth|>20% (annualized) dropped. Robust std errors are in parentheses (clustered by state).