With nine million hectares planted to wheat at a seed rate of about 100 kg/ha, total planted seed would come to about one million tons. Private sales of 4,000 tons of seed of new varieties would plant only 0.4 percent of total wheat area. TIGEM sales of seed for new varieties might supply another 3 percent of planted area.

However, the share of wheat cropped area reached by these new varieties could be much larger than 0.4 or 3 percent. An average farmer buying commercial seed of a new variety keeps his own seed for several years before buying new seed; also, many multiply seed for sale to neighbors. If farmers buy new seed every four years and do not sell seed to neighbors, then annual sales of seed for x percent of wheat area would deliver a new variety to 4x percent of area in four years. If farmers buying commercial seed also sell seed to one or two neighbors in the first year, then annual sales of seed for x percent of wheat area would deliver a new variety to 7x- I Ox percent of area in four years. With these estimates, new private varieties may be reaching 1.6-4.0 percent of wheat area, while new TIGEM varieties could reach 12-30 percent of planted area.

The above estimates agree with some other available information on wheat varieties. CIMMYT estimates that share of wheat area planted to improved varieties increased from 50 percent in 1984 to 71 percent in 1990. In that year, almost 30 percent of wheat area was planted to varieties from CIMMYT, Italy, US, and Eastern Europe, some of which were introduced after 1982.

While people shifting to new varieties are responding to economic incentives, aggregate data on wheat yields after reform do not give any indication of the effect of these incentives. Over the 1980s, Turkey's average wheat yield grew more slowly than in previous decades and did not even keep pace with increases in world average yield. Part of the explanation for slow growth in wheat yield may be slow growth in fertilizer use, as already discussed.

In the early 1990s, the annual value of the wheat crop in Turkey is roughly $ 3 billion. New varieties coming with reform have spread to a portion of this area. National yield data do not show :n impact. Although private companies currently have a small share of the wheat seed market, they have been actively looking for new foreign varieties to introduce, and they have been selling more wheat seed. The reform impact on wheat may be expected to grow as private companies push into the market.

# **4.2.4 Vegetables for Export**

Vegetable exports is an area where one would expect an impact from reforms allowing in new varieties as well as new specialty chemicals such as plant growth regulators. The limited data which are available show a large increase in value of vegetable exports after reform period, but are not sufficient to estimate the increase in value due to regulatory reforms (see Table 4.4). Furthermore, only a fraction of that value would be net economic benefit, since vegetable producers and processors would be taking resources away from other productive activities. This section is based on information from a 1994 FAO and MARA study, Turkey: Horticulture Subsector Review: Approaches to Market-Led Development.

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