WAP-enable cell phones are spreading very rapidly in Japan and Western Europe. According to the Japanese Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, approximately 10 million Japanese users accessed the Net through mobile communications devices in May, 2000 -- an expansion to 40% of total Internet users since the advent of wireless access (Reuters, 2000).

After analyzing recent growth trends, IDC has projected a worldwide user base of over 700 million mobile Internet subscribers by 2002, significantly exceeding its projection of 500 million users who will access the Net through phone lines and wired networks (IDC, 2000). Anticipating rapid expansion of WAP-enabled phones, hardware manufacturers are developing color displays and input devices that will approach PC functionality in very small devices. During the next few years, mobile telephone systems appear poised to join telephone mainlines and cable TV as major platforms for Internet expansion in developing countries. Mobile phone systems have particularly important implications for the digital divide, because they can expand rapidly into peri-urban and rural areas where most poor households are located.

# **5.** Explaining **Mobile Telephone Growth in the 1990's**

During the 1990's, privatization and deregulation of telephone systems accelerated access to telecom services in many developing countries. China's telecom penetration rate rose 25-fold (from 6 to 147 per thousand population); India's 33-fold (from 1 to 33); Latin America's quintupled (from 48 to 248); and Sub-Saharan Africa's rose more than twofold (from 5 to 13). Latin America's current penetration rate is more than half of the OECD rate in 1990; South Africa and East Asia (excluding China) are not far behind.

The most significant feature of this growth has been the spread of mobile phone systems. Figure 2 shows that mobile systems now operate in 85% of the International Telecommunication Union's 194 member countries. From a near-zero base in 1990, mobile subscriptions have increased to nearly 45% of fixed subscriptions in East Asia (excluding China); 40% in South Africa; 35% in Latin America; and 30% in China, SubSaharan Africa (excluding South Africa), and the Middle East-North Africa region.

While rapid growth has been the rule, developing countries have exhibited very different rates of increase and patterns of regional diffusion. In Latin America, annual mobile phone expansion rates have varied from 4% (Guyana) to 171% (Bolivia). In Asia, the growth rate has varied from 28% (Thailand) to 98% (China). Recent data on the spread of mobile telephone systems within developing countries show that geographic coverage is not necessarily limited to a few large cities. In Africa, for example, mobile phone systems are rapidly moving toward coverage of the most populous regions in Senegal,

> _5_ National coverage maps for the GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) are available from the GSM consortium's Website at www.gsmworld.com. Comparison with population distributions is possible using high-resolution population density maps available from the National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis, University of California at Santa Barbara, at http:l/www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/pubs/gdp/pop.html#GLOBAL.

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