they are sufficiently modest to avoid creating dependency and have been associated with wider local economy benefits (Taylor, Thome, and Filipski 2014; Taylor et al. 2013, 2014a, 2014b; Thome et al. 2014a, 2014b). Cash transfers have also represented an effective response to transient food crises, as evidenced for example by Sierra Leone’s Cash for Work Program, Kenya’s Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children and Hunger Safety Net Program, and Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program.<sup>39</sup> One important caveat in this policy debate is that, while these unconditional cash transfers programs have no enforceable conditions, many feature strong messaging and communication to the extent that beneficiaries often understand that payments are intended for specific purposes, for example, in the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Program, the Lesotho Child Grant Program and the Zambia Child Grant Program.<sup>40</sup> In Lesotho, beneficiaries received messages that the transfers should be spent on children, often at payout points and reinforced within communities (Pellerano et al, 2014).

# **_3.2 Resilience_**

For the purposes of this analysis, we interpret resilience as the ability of households to manage change, by maintaining initial levels of welfare in the face of shocks or stress. In recent years, resilience has become a key focus in social protection, as by providing a steady source of income, it is anticipated that household’s ability to respond to and cope with shocks is strengthened. In turn, households gain the potential to diversity and strengthen their own livelihood options, which can lead to further savings, buffering against future shocks. Impact evaluations have typically not been devised to capture this concept directly, given the unexpected time‐varying nature of shocks. In this context, our analysis explores the concept of resilience through a lens of risk management, improved coping strategies and livelihood diversification. We consider outcomes around savings and private transfers for risk management, decreased informal wage work and child labor for improving coping strategies and ownership of productive assets including livestock, land, durables and agricultural inputs for livelihood diversification. It is noted that our classification overlaps with the agenda on productive inclusion, which is returned to in the next section on opportunity.

On risk management, our meta‐analysis finds a no significant impact on savings and on private transfers (see figure 4). The mean effect on the incidence of savings is to increase it by 92% relative to baseline level [95% CI: ‐8 to 193%]<sup>41</sup> and the mean effect on the incidence of private transfers is to decrease it by 12% relative to baseline levels [95% CI: ‐47 to 23%].<sup>42</sup> While these findings may not seem remarkable it is worth noting two points. One, typically savings rates are very low to begin with among populations targeted by safety net programs, since these populations are struggling to cover their day‐to‐day necessities let‐alone save for adverse conditions. The studies included in the meta‐analysis, for example, find that only between 5 to 35% beneficiaries save pre‐program but are 4 and 20% more likely to be saving than

> 39 Rosas and Sabarwal 2016 (Sierra Leone CFW), Ward et al. 2010 (Kenya CTOVC), Merttens et al. (2013), Hoddinott et al. 2012 (Ethiopia PSNP).

> 40 Abdoulayi et al. 2015 (Malawi SCTP), Pellerano et al. 2014 (Lesotho LCGP), Seidenfeld et al. 2013 (Zambia ZCGP). 41 Sources: Ward et al. 2010 (Kenya CTOVC), Evans et al. 2014 (Tanzania CB‐CCT), Daidone et al, 2014 (Lesotho LCGP), Seidenfeld et al. 2013 (Zambia ZCGP), Merttens et al. (2013), Rosas and Sabarwal 2016 (Sierra Leone CFW). 42 Sources: Gilligan et al. 2008 (Ethiopia PSNP), Ward et al. 2010 (Kenya CTOVC), Handa and Park 2013 (Ghana LEAP), Evans et al. 2014 (Tanzania CB‐CCT), Daidone et al, 2014 (Lesotho LCGP), Merttens et al. (2013), Beegle et al. 2015 (Malawi MASAF), Berhane et al., 2015 (Ethiopia SCTPP), Abdoulayi et al. 2015 (Malawi SCTP).

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