monthly, or annual amounts. These values were summed up to an annual household income, the variable we examine in this paper. For consumption, a series of questions were asked in the household questionnaire about the household’s annual spending on 10 different items<sup>13</sup> and values were summed up to estimate consumption. Household assets were calculated from the household questionnaire as well, based on the sum of the total estimated market value for 37 different items.<sup>14</sup> In examining early childhood development outcomes, we specifically look at whether mothers received prenatal care, whether there was a skilled attendant present at birth, anthropometric outcomes (height-for-age, weight-for-age, and weight-for-height) and preprimary attendance. Whether or not a woman received prenatal care is based on a question about whether she had prenatal consultations during her last pregnancy with a doctor, nurse, or midwife. This question is asked of ever-married women aged 15–55 years, whose last birth was in the past five years. Skilled delivery was asked of the same group of ever married women aged 15–55 years, whose last birth was in the past five years, in terms of whether their last delivery was in a secure environment. Anthropometric outcomes are standardized to the World Health Organization (WHO) reference for children under 5 years of age (World Health Organization, 2006) based on measured weight in kilograms, height in centimeters, gender, and age in months. Attendance of pre-primary education is examined for children aged 3–6 years, depending on whether or not they were in the pre-primary stage in school.

# **_4 Methods for Evaluating the Impact of the INDH_**

# _4.1 Impact Evaluation_

The basic problem of impact evaluation is easy to grasp. The challenge is to construct what is known as a counterfactual, that is, what would have happened in the absence of the program (Khandker, Koolwal, & Samad, 2010). If we find, on completion of the program, that children’s weight is on average lower than recorded before the start of the program, are we to conclude that the program is adversely affecting the nutritional status of the children? Obviously, the answer is ‘no.’ It may well be that the nutritional status of the children deteriorated for reasons entirely unrelated to the program being assessed (due to a series of poor harvests, for example). What is missing is the counterfactual, which would consist of a sample of untreated children who are similar to those treated under the program. Subject to certain assumptions, the difference in development between treated and untreated children would provide an estimate of the program’s effect on their health. What should be clear from this example is that without a counterfactual, any conclusions as to the effects of the program and whether it should be continued could be erroneous. With respect to the impact evaluation of the INDH, as is described in detail, the sampling method

> transfers from households abroad; (14) transfers from an agency in Morocco; (15) transfers from an agency abroad; (16) retirement pensions; or (17) other sources.

> 13 The categories were (1) food; (2) housing, electricity, and water; (3) clothing; (4) health expenditures; (5) spending on education; (6) capital expenditures (furniture and other durable goods); (7) transportation expenditures; (8) cultural and recreation expenses; (9) exceptional expenses; and (10) other expenses.

> 14 (1) Agricultural land, (2) lots of land for building, (3) cattle and goats, (4) sheep, (5) fruit trees, (6) chickens/turkeys/pigeons/rabbits, (7) horse-cart, (8) tractor, (9) truck, (10) housing, (11) car, (12) moped, (13) sewing machine, (14) gas heating, (15) electric heating, (16) vacuum, (17) refrigerator, (18) freezer, (19) gas cooker, (20) electric cooker, (21) washer, (22) dishwasher, (23) gas oven, (24) electric oven, (25) fixed computer, (26) laptop, (27) landline, (28) mobile phone, (29) TV, (30) DVD or VCD, (31) recorder video player, (32) VCR or video camera, (33) satellite receiver, (34) air conditioner, (35) financial capital, (36) jewelry, and (37) other.

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