rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
# PPR Working Paper Series

|||||Contact|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|WPS307|On the Accuracy of Economic<br>Observations: Do Sub-Saharan<br>Trade Statistics Mean Anything|Alexander J. Yeats|November 1989|J. Epps<br>33710|
|WPS308|Harmonizing Tax Policies in Central<br>America|Yalcin M. Baran|November 1989|T. Watana<br>31882|
|WPS309|Honduras-Public Sector Finances,<br>Issues, and Policy Suggestions<br>to Resolve Them|Yalcin M. Baran|November 1989|T. Watana<br>31882|
|WPS310|A Macroeconomic Consistency<br>Framework for Zimbabwe|Ali Khadr<br>Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel|||
|WPS311|Macroeconomic Performance<br>Before and After Disirflation in<br>Israel|Leonardo Leiderman<br>Nissan Liviatan|November 1989||
|WPS312|Improving Public Enterprise<br>Performance: Lessons from<br>South Korea|Mary M. Shirley|October 1989|R. Malcolm<br>61708|
|WPS313|The Evolution of Paradigms of<br>Environmental Management in<br>Development|Michael E. Colby|November 1989|C. Evangelista<br>32645|
|WPS314|Primary Commodity Prices and<br>Macroeconomic Variables: A Long-<br>run Relationship|Theodosios Palaskas<br>Panos Varangis|November 1989|D. Gustafson<br>33714|
|WPS315|Notes on Patents, Distortions,<br>and Development|Julio Nogues|||
|WPS316|The Macroeconomics of Populism<br>in Latin America|Rudiger Dornbusch<br>Sebastian Edwards|||
|WPS317|Price and Quality Competitiveness<br>of Socialist Countries' Exports|Zdenek Drabek<br>Andrzej Olechowski|||
|WPS318|Debt Buybacks Can Indicate<br>Sovereign Countries' Willingness<br>to Raise Investment and Repay<br>Debt When Partial Debt Relief is<br>Offered: Theory and Tests|Sankarshan<br>Acharya<br>Ishac Diwan|||
|WPS319|Trends in South-South Trade and<br>the Potential in Non-Discriminatory<br>Liberalization of Barriers|Refik Erzan<br>|||
by over 30 percent relative to the comparison groups in both countries, with per-capita expenditure also increasing, although by less than income. Subjective economic welfare is estimated to have increased by almost half a standard deviation in both countries, and households have purchased more durable assets such as DVD players, radios, ovens, and in Vanuatu, boats. In Tonga RSE households also doubled the rate of home improvement, and in both countries, households became more likely to have a bank account, likely reflecting more formal savings. School attendance rates increased by 20 percentage points for 16 to 18 year olds in Tonga, and community-level effects were generally modest, but positive. Overall these results show that the seasonal worker program has been a powerful development intervention for the participating households, and that the RSE policy appears to have succeeded in its development objectives in the short run.

The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 provides a description of the RSE policy and how workers were recruited. Section 3 describes our surveys and estimation methodology. Household-level impacts are estimated in Section 4, and impacts at the community level are discussed in Section 5. Section 6 concludes.

# **2. The RSE policy**

The RSE policy was launched on 30 April 2007. It initially allowed up to 5,000 seasonal workers to come to New Zealand for a maximum of seven months per 11 month period to work in the horticulture and viticulture industries.<sup>4</sup> Preference is given to workers from Pacific Island Forum countries (except Fiji), with Kiribati, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu selected for special “kick-start” status which entailed deliberate and expedited efforts to launch the scheme and recruit in these countries. Vanuatu and Tonga, the focus of our impact analysis, supplied the most workers under the RSE in the first two seasons: 3590 workers in the case of Vanuatu and 1971 from Tonga (including return workers).

Ramasamy et al. (2008) detail the origins of the policy and the government thinking behind its creation. The RSE was seen as a way to solve the long-standing problems the horticulture and viticulture industries had in meeting their seasonal labor needs and boost the economic growth and productivity of this sector, while contributing to New Zealand’s broad development objectives in the Pacific region. Design of the RSE paid careful attention to previous experience with seasonal worker programs around the world, and the resulting policy contains many of the features that are believed to be best practice for ensuring success of seasonal worker schemes and to mitigate the risks of overstaying, displacement of New Zealand workers, and worker exploitation.

> 4 The cap was raised from 5,000 to 8,000 workers in October 2008. Workers from Kiribati and Tuvalu are permitted to stay for up to 9 months instead of 7, each 11 month period.

4
# _<u>Data analysis and interpretation</u>_

Qualitative analysis can contribute to internal validity by verifying the connections between the causal mechanisms identified in a quantitative analysis. (Similarly, if its findings are contradictory, it may provide an alternative explanation or lead to further research.) As an example, in an evaluation assessing the demand for formalization among firms in Sri Lanka, researchers wondered if the large shifts in profits that few firms reported were attributed to formalization or were due to measurement error (De Mel et al, 2012). The researchers conducted case studies to ensure that the findings were not driven by measurement error and to articulate the mediating channels through which formalization helped the firms that benefitted most. The qualitative analysis supported the quantitative findings and confirmed the causal mechanisms demonstrating that formalization led to increased firm profits. The qualitative analysis shed light on how formalization helped firms by allowing them to issue receipts and thereby become — suppliers in larger value chains in a very effective way.

Another relevant example is again the Lima Tracer Study, in which researchers used as baseline data firms operating without a license and used incentives such as fee waivers for the treatment group. The analysis found no significant impact on outcome variables. In addition, it was noted that firms were not eager to take the incentives. Through a qualitative study applied to a smaller sample, it was possible to distinguish behavioral characteristics of entrepreneurs associated with license acquisition. Information obtained through in-depth interviews revealed that there are two — distinct groups among the entrepreneurs “typical entrepreneurs” and “survival entrepreneurs” — and that this distinction may be considered a determinant in the decision to obtain a license. In addition, managers from micro firms did not perceive important benefits from formalization and recognized that the cost of the license is a real barrier for the formalization process, but not the most important. These interviews led to the conclusion that, in fact, there is not a high demand for operating licenses, an issue that was not captured through surveys, which also explains the low take-up and impact obtained.

The qualitative analysis was not initially contemplated; the original design was mainly a quantitative approach. As many companies did not accept the incentives, the research institute (GRADE) decided to conduct an in-depth study with a qualitative focus. Given the insightful 16
**Table 2: Two-stage-least-square estimates**<sup>_a_</sup>

||2SLS<br>|2SLS<br>Heckman<br>|2SLS<br>|2SLS<br>Heckman<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Log of Budget per capita<br>|0.043<sup>_~~⋆~~_</sup>|0.052<sup>_~~⋆⋆~~_</sup>|0.089<sup>_~~⋆~~_</sup>|0.095<sup>_~~⋆⋆~~_</sup>|
|(ln _Bud/pop_)<sup>_b_</sup>|( 0.022 )|( 0.019 )|( 0.045 )|( 0.044 )|
|Log of GDP per capita<br>(ln _GDP/pop_)|0.820<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.146 )|0.978<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.135 )|0.848<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.130 )|0.951 <sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.143 )|
|Log of Trade restrictiveness<br>|-0.158<br>|-0.274<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>|0.043<br>|-0.047<br>|
|(ln _T_)|( 0.142 )|( 0.127 )|( 0.134 )|( 0.123 )|
|Log of Trade restrictiveness in ROW<br>(ln _MA_)|-1.255<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.348 )|-1.316<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.285 )|-0.921<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.294 )|-0.969<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.257 )|
|Log of Forex volatility<br>(ln _V ol_)|-0.160<br>( 0.155 )|-0.163<br>( 0.145 )|-0.109<br>( 0.125 )|-0.109<br>( 0.120 )|
|Days to comply with export<br>regulation (ln _Reg_)|-0.013<sup>_⋆_</sup><br>( 0.008 )|-0.009<br>( 0.007 )|-0.008<br>( 0.007 )|0.005<br>( 0.006 )|
|Log of geo-trade/GDP ratio<br>(ln _F_&_R_)|0.525<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.181 )|0.403<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.085 )|0.431<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.084 )|0.363<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.079 )|
|Log of Exp/GDP at time<br>of EPA creation|||0.272<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.076 )|0.224<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 0.071 )|
|Constant|-4.759<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 1.372 )|-6.476<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 1.173 )|-4.351<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 1.340 )|-5.425<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>( 1.353 )|
|Regional dummies<sup>_c_</sup>|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|_P_-value of Chi-squared Wald-test|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|
|Number of observations|78|102|74|102|
|Number of uncensored|78|77|74|73|
|R-squared<br>|0.952|0.961|0.967|0.970|
|_λ_<sup>_d_</sup>|NA|0.944<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>|NA|0.530<sup>_⋆⋆_</sup><br>|
|||( 0.258 )||( 0.200 )|

> _a_ All regressions used a 2SLS estimator. EPA’s budget per capita is instrumented using the number of years since the EPA was created and the number of years to the next election, as well as their squared terms. Estimates for the first stage regression are provided in the Auxiliary Regressions Appendix that is available on-line or upon request from the authors. In the case of the Heckman estimates we also correct for sample selection bias, using a two step approach.

_b_ Standard errors are in parenthesis; _⋆⋆_ stands for significance at the 5 percent level; and _⋆_ stands for significance at the 10 percent level.

> _c_ The regional dummies are LAC, OECD, EEA, MENA, and SSA.

> _d_ The selection parameter _λ_ (Mills ratio) captures the extent to which selection is a problem in the sample. When statistically different from zero, this suggest that there is a sample bias that needed to be corrected.

23
Jalisco (center-south) and Yucatan (South). Airlift capacity, along with its high level of human capital, good governance, was critical to Intel’s plant location in south-of-Mexico Costa Rica and is important to the long established computer industry in Guadalajara, Jalisco.<sup>11</sup> Yucatan also benefits from the shallow water port of Progreso that offers easy access to US ports in the Gulf of Mexico as well as those in Central and South America and the Caribbean. It is perhaps not surprising that in 2003, Yucatan had the second highest concentration of maquila employment of a non-border state exceeded only by Jalisco. The port of Veracruz, the entry point for Mexico’s first globalizing influence in the 16<sup>th</sup> century, remains Mexico's most important with extensive road and rail networks that connects the central and southern states, again to the Gulf of Mexico ports. Given this ready water access, _all other endowment equal_ , a southern pole or a southeastern corridor enjoying the same benefits of proximity would seem as plausible than the region being left behind.

In fact, to date, there is very little evidence that either the 1985 unilateral trade liberalization, or NAFTA has led to a correlation of growth with distance from the border. At the wage level, Hanson (1997) himself did not find that the North-South wage gradient steepened after 1985. Using state per capita income data, Rodriguez-Pose and SanchezReaza (2005) find no relationship at any time period and our background regressions confirm this.<sup>12</sup> Esquivel (2000) finds no relationship of distance with either level of income or growth. Chiquiar (forthcoming) finds a relationship of changes in growth with distance, but this appears to be a result very particular to the 1970-1985/1985-1999 difference that does not survive breaking the period into a post GATT (1985-1993) and post NAFTA periods 1993-2002.<sup>13</sup> In sum, the geographical patterns of growth with liberalization are likely to be richer than at first thought.

> 11 Rodriguez-Clare(2001) notes Costa Rica’s better infrastructure in this area gave it the edge over Chile. 12 Running a simple convergence regression for 1970-2002, 1970-1985, and 1985-2002, we find that distance never enters remotely significantly.  Putting in regional dummies suggests that the Chiapas-Oaxaca-Guerrero region did unusually poorly relative to other regions both in 1970-1985 and 1985-2002. Results available on request.

> 13 Nicita (2004) ex post simulations find that gains in household welfare from trade liberalization were distributed broadly along a gradient from the North.  However, the core estimations driving the simulations, the pass through of tariffs to prices, imposes a linear distance from the border interactive term that, in turn, implies that the predicted values used in the simulations will show the same gradient pattern.  To be convincing, we would want to use the actual decline in prices in each state during liberalization.

4
Table Al.9 - Ranking of Items. United States-Mexico, Grain Mill Products, (US 1977) (Mexico 1975)

|---------------------------------------------------------------<br>UNITED STATES|__------------__--------------------------------|MEXICO||
|---|---|---|---|
|rank<br>value**an***<br>cumulative<br>matched<br>of item<br>of total value<br>% of total<br>withMEXICO<br> <br>|rank<br>valueas<br>of item<br>of total value<br>|cumnlative<br> <br>% of total<br>|matched<br>with USA<br>|
|of output<br>value of output|of output|value of output||
|<br> <br>-------------------------------------------------------------------|<br>__--------__--------------------------------|||
|a) Items Specified by Quantity and Value.<br>|a) Items Specified by Quanti<br>|ty and Value,<br>||
|contributing more than 1 per cent to Output:|contributing more than 1|per cent to Out|put:|
|1<br>19.50<br>19.50<br>Yea|1<br>26.89|26.89|**Yes**|
|2<br>7.61<br>27.11<br>No|2<br>20.08|46.97|Yes|
|3<br>7.16<br>34.27<br>Yes|3<br>14.31|61.28|Yea|
|4<br>5.16<br>39.43<br>**Yea**|4<br>3.49|64.77|No|
|5<br>4.61<br>44.05<br>**Yea**|5<br>2.94|67.71|No|
|6<br>3.98<br>48.02<br>Yea|6<br>1.95|69.67|No|
|7<br>3.40<br>51.43<br>Yea|7<br>1.70|71.37|No|
|8<br>2.82<br>54.24<br>**Yea**|8<br>1.32|72.69|No|
|9<br>2.55<br>56.79<br>Yea|9<br>1.23|73.92|No|
|10<br>2.50<br>59.29<br>Yes|10<br>1.20|75.12|Yes|
|11<br>2.43<br>61.72<br>Yes|11<br>1.17|76.29|No|
|12<br>2.14<br>63.87<br>No|12<br>1.08|77.37|No|
|13<br>2.07<br>65.93<br>No||||
|14<br>1.94<br>67.88<br>No||||
|15<br>1.30<br>69.18<br>Yes||||
|16<br>1.27<br>70.45<br>**Yes**||||
|17<br>1.11<br>71.56<br>No||||
|18<br>1.05<br>72.61<br>Yea||||
|19<br>1.03<br>73.64<br>No||||
|Percentage matched:<br>57.73|Percentage matched:||62.49|
|<br>--------------------------------------------------------------|<br>--------------------------------------------|||
|b) Items Specified by Quantity and Value.|_____<br>b) Items Specified by Quanti|ty and VaIu:.||
|<br>contributing less than 1 per cent to Output:<br> <br> <br>|<br>contributing lesa than 1<br> <br>|<br>per cent to Out<br>|put:|
|20-37<br>8.16<br>81.80|13-55<br>8.73|86.10||
|Percentuge matched:<br>2.16|Percentage matched:||3.12|
|<br>c) Output not Specified by Quantity:|<br>c) Output not Specified by|Quantity:||
|<br>18.20<br>100.00|13.90|100.00||
|<br>|||000|
|Percentage matched:<br>0.00|Percentage matched:||.|
|<br>Total percentage matched:<br>59.89|| Total percentage matched:||65.61|

Source: US figures derived from tables A1.2 and A1.6; Mexican figures derived from tables A1.4 and A1.6;
# **V- Conclusions**

Access to finance is perceived by firms as a big obstacle to their growth. Theory predicts that credit information sharing systems can help alleviate firms’ financial constraints and facilitate access to finance. The existing empirical literature on the impact of credit information sharing schemes is limited and with few exceptions not able to identify well the causal effect of information sharing on firm financing.

Using multi-year firm-level surveys for 63 countries covering more than 75,000 firms over the period 2002–13, we analyzed the impact of the reform (i.e., introduction) of credit information sharing systems on firms’ access to finance. Our results revealed that credit bureau (CB) reforms but not credit registry reforms (CR) have an effect on firm financing. After the introduction of a CB, the likelihood that a firm has access to finance increases, interest rates drop, maturity lengthens, and the share of working capital financed by banks increases. The effects of CB reform are more pronounced the greater the coverage of the CB and the scope and accessibility of the credit information sharing scheme and the weaker the contractual environment. We also find some evidence that CB reform effects are more pronounced for smaller, less experienced, and more opaque firms. Finally, our results are robust to focusing on a smaller panel of firms, which allows us to control for firm-fixed effects, and to instrumenting for the likelihood of credit information sharing reforms.

23
debt service in a given year due to current and past reschedulings, but they do not provide information on the net change in debt service obligations.

In this paper we use a set of preliminary estimates of debt relief that we developed in Depetris and Kraay (2005), based on creditor-reported data from four main sources: bilateral creditors operating through the Paris Club; multilateral creditors operating through the HIPC initiative; a small donor-funded debt-buyback facility for lowincome countries operated by the World Bank; and bilateral debt relief provided by Russia.<sup>6</sup> As detailed in Appendix A of Depetris and Kraay (2005) we combine information on nominal amounts of debt rescheduled or forgiven with rough estimates of the concessionality of the rescheduling and somewhat more sophisticated estimates of the concessionality of the stock of debt itself to arrive at estimates of the present value of debt relief provided, by country and year, for a sample of 62 developing countries since 1988. We are currently also developing more elaborate estimates of the net change in the entire future profile of debt service obligations of a country due to debt relief granted in each year, using the loan-level Debtor Reporting System database maintained by the World Bank.

For most of this paper we will organize our data into three five-year periods, 1989-1993, 1994-1998, and 1999-2003. For each five-year period, we compute the present value of the annual debt relief series for each country, and express it as a share of GDP in the year prior to the beginning of the period. Figure 1 provides a visual overview of the distribution of debt relief and overall indebtedness, for the last of these three periods. We graph the present value of debt relief during the period 1999-2003, expressed as a share of GDP in 1998, against the present value of external debt as a share of exports in 1998. The graph shows a positive simple correlation: initially moreindebted countries received more debt relief during the subsequent five-year period. We shall see however that this simple correlation is substantially weakened once we control for other factors driving debt relief. It is also striking to note that debt relief for some countries has been quite large relative to GDP. According to our estimates countries such as Guyana, Mauritius, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia all

> 6 While together these four sources account for the bulk of debt relief to low-income countries during the period we study, they are not comprehensive as they exclude debt relief granted by bilateral non-Russian creditors outside of the Paris Club.

5
Johnson, H. (1967): Some economic aspects of the brain drain, Pakistan Development Review, 7, 3: 379-411.

Justman, M. and J.F. Thisse (1997): Implications of the mobility of skilled labor for local public funding of higher education, Economic letters, 55: 409-412.

Justman, M. and J.F. Thisse (2000): Local public funding of higher education when skilled labor is imperfectly mobile, International Tax and Public Finance, 7(3): 247-258.

Kanbur, R. and H. Rapoport (2004): Migration selectivity and the evolution of spatial inequality, Mimeo, Cornell University.

Kangasmieni, M., A.L. Winters and S. Commander (2004): Is the medical brain drain bene...cial? Evidence from overseas doctors in the UK, Manuscript, Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics.

Kwok, V. and H. Leland (1982): An economic model of the brain drain, American Economic Review, 72, 1: 91-100.

Lowell, L.B. and A.M. Findlay (2001): Migration of highly skilled persons from developing countries: impact and policy responses, Geneva: International Labour O¢ce (Draft Synthesis Report).

Massey, D.S., L. Goldring and J. Durand (1994): Continuities in Transnational Migration: An Analysis of Nineteen Mexican Communities, American Journal of Sociology, 99, 6: 1492-1533.

McCormick, B. and J. Wahba (2000): Overseas unemployment and remittances to a dual economy, Economic Journal, 110: 509-34.

McCormick, B. and J. Wahba (2001): Overseas work experience, savings and entrepreneurship amongst return migrants to LDCs, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48, 2: 164-78.

McCullock, R. and J.T. Yellen (1977): Factor mobility, regional development and the distribution of income, Journal of Political Economy, 85, 1: 79-96.

McKenzie, D. and H. Rapoport (2004): Network e¤ects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: theory and evidence from Mexico, Working Paper No 63, Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD), Harvard University, April.

Mesnard, A. (2004): Temporary migration and capital market imperfections, Oxford Economic Papers, 56: 242-62.

Mesnard, A. and M. Ravallion (2001): Wealth distribution and self-employment in a developing country, CEPR Discussion Paper DP3026.

Miyagiwa, K. (1991): Scale economies in education and the brain drain problem, International Economic Review, 32, 3: 743-59.

Mountford, A. (1997): Can a brain drain be good for growth in the source economy?, Journal of Development Economics, 53, 2: 287-303.

Munshi, K. (2003): Networks in the modern economy: Mexican migrants in the US labor market, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 2: 549-99.

OECD (1998): Trends in international migration, Paris: OECD Editions.

37