rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
different specifications.

Following the literature, we estimate the following regressions by OLS (denote IGRC by _β_ and IGC by _ρ_ ): In the IGRC regression, _Si_<sup>_c_and</sup><sup>_S_</sup> _i_<sup>_p_areyearsofschoolingofchildrenandparentsre-</sup> spectively, and _X_ is a set of control variables. All of the variables in IGC regression are normalized to have zero mean and unit variance; for example, we define _Zi_<sup>_c_=</sup><sup>_S_</sup> _i_<sup>_c−S_ ̄</sup><sup>_c_</sup> , _σc_ and _Zi_<sup>_p_=</sup><sup>_S_</sup> _<u>i</u>_<sup>_p−S_ ̄</sup><sup>_p_</sup> , where a bar on a variable denotes sample mean, and _σc_ and _σp_ are the _σ p_ estimated standard deviations of children’s schooling and parent’s schooling respectively.

To help keep track of the discussion across different samples, we note here again the terminology used. We call “all children” when the sample includes both sons and daughters. A “full sample” includes both coresident and non-resident members, and “coresident sample” includes only the members coresident in the household at the time of the survey.

# **4.1 Estimates for All Children (Sons and Daughters)**

# **Evidence from Bangladesh**

Table 1 reports the estimates of IGRC and IGC for all children in Bangladesh data, i.e., sons and daughters combined together. The first two columns in Table 1 report the estimates of IGRC for the full and coresident samples (top panel) and the implied bias (bottom panel). We use three different measures of parental education: father’s schooling, mother’s schooling, and the average of father’s and mother’s schooling. Note that some researchers also use maximum schooling (of mothers and fathers) as a measure of parental education. In our data sets, the father has higher schooling in most of the cases, and the correlation between the maximum parental schooling and father’s schooling is high enough to yield virtually identical estimates of IGRC and IGC. In addition to quadratic age 12
conversion to dollar amounts were taken from the International Monetary Fund's "International Financial Statistics Yearbook". For most countries, cost data was taken from ILO's Cost of Social Security Basic Tables (ILO 1992 and ILO forthcoming). The following sources were also used: Chile: Valdes-Prieto 1994 India: Employees' Provident Fund Annual Report, 1990.

Guatemala: Anuario Estadistico del Instituto Guatemalteco de Seguridad Social, 1986 Honduras: Bayo 1990 Paraguay: Instituto de Prevision Social de Paraguay, Estadisticas 1987 Singapore: Asher 1992 Switzerland: Assurances Sociales en Suisse, 1993 Sweden: Sweden: Social Insurance Statistics, 1989 Tanzania: Tanzania Statistical Yearbook 1990 United States: Social Security Bulletin, 1991 Zambia: Zambia National Provident Fund Annual Report, 1988-89 24
**Annex: Secured Transaction Regimes for Movables in the EU 8**

# **ANNEX: SECURED TRANSACTION REGIMES FOR MOVABLES IN THE EU 8**

|**Country**|**Pledge**<br>**Registration**<br>**System**|**Comments**|
|---|---|---|
|**Czech**<br>**Republic**|**Yes**|**OVERVIEW**<br>• The Register of Pledges was introduced by an amendment to the<br>Czech Civil Code (effective as of 1 January 2002).<br>• The purpose of the Register is to provide reliable evidence of the<br>existence of certain types of pledges.<br>• The Register is maintained by the Czech Notary Chamber in electronic<br>form and is not publicly available. Rather, a notary public issues a copy<br>or extract from the Register, as well as confirmation that the particular<br>object is not subject to a pledge, only if: (i) the requesting person<br>proves a justified interest; or (ii) the owner of the collateral approves<br>it in writing.<br>**TYPES OF PLEDGES**<br>• A pledge encumbered by a lien may be a movable or immovable<br>object, an enterprise or another collective asset, a set of objects, a re-<br>ceivable, or some other property right if its nature so admits, a flat<br>(an apartment) or non-residential premises in ownership, a sharehold-<br>ing in a business (an ownership interest), securities or the subject of<br>a specific industrial (i.e. intellectual) property right.<br>• A receivable can be secured by a lien on several separate objects (joint<br>lien).<br>• A lien may secure both a pecuniary and a non-pecuniary receivable.|
|**Estonia**|**Yes**|**OVERVIEW**<br>• Has a commercial pledge register. Registration of movables is regu-<br>lated by the Commercial Pledge Law and the Property Law.<br>• Database is centralized and electronic.<br>**TYPES OF PLEDGES**<br>• A commercial pledge extends to all movable property of a company or<br>movable property relating to the economic activity of a sole proprietor.<br>A commercial pledge may be established on the movable property of<br>the Estonian branch of a foreign company.<br>• A commercial pledge extends to all encumberable property, which<br>belongs to an undertaking at the time the pledge entry is made, and<br>to property, which the undertaking acquires after the pledge.<br>• A commercial pledge does not extend to money in a cash register<br>or credit institution; shares, stocks, investment fund shares, contribu-<br>tions in co-operatives or participation in other companies belonging<br>to an undertaking; promissory notes or other loan documents ac-<br>cepted in common usage; or other securities.|

**35**

**THE WORLD BANK**
So even when **nicasures** of incentives wilthin ngriculhure show protection close to zcro, (as **the** casc of Chiile sliows), most of the disincentivc to agriculture can arisc from protection givcn to otlier sectors (i.c. **fiomii** indiiect ciTects).

Tuiblc **6. Dircct. Indircl, aind Tolal Nominal:l Rl cs** of **1'rotcclinio** for Exponcd Products, 1980-84 **(pcrccnt)**

|**Country**|**Product**|Dircct|**I ndircct**|**Total**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Pakistani**|Cotton|-7|-35|-42|
|Cluilc|Grapcs||-7|**-7**|
|Malaysia|Rubbcr|-18<br>X|i(,|-28|
|Eg,pt|Cotton|-22|-14|<br>-36|

Sourcc: **Krcugcr. SchiWif** and Valdcs (1988).

Pakistan also cmerges unfavorably from a comparison with the high-performing East Asian economies, which had generally low levels of disprotection of agriculture. Korea Malaysia, and Thailand had substantially lower disprotection uf agriculture (in Korea, agriculture was protected).<sup>4</sup> Thailand's disprotection of agriculture was similar to Pakistan's in the 1960s, but the two countries subsequently diverged sharply.

# Policy on Taxing Agricultural Income

Agricultural income has traditionally not been taxed, and the political economy of agricultural taxation has held that agricultural income and wealth should not be taxed because the transfer out of agriculture resulting from incentive policies is so large.<sup>5</sup> As analyzed in the previous section, there were significant revenue transfers from agriculture in the past, although **the** transfer did not accrue to the government. In recent years the transfers due to price and trade policies have decreased, and if one takes into account all the transfers into agriculture -- such as credit, water, and electricity subsidies -- there may be very little transfer out of agriculture. Haque (1993) puts the consensus estimate of the net transfer out of agriculture at between 5 to 8 percent of agricultural GDP.

However, even if one accepts this transfer as an alternative to explicit taxation, keeping output prices lower than parity prices and offsetting this by input subsidies is a particularly inequitable and inefficient way of raising revenue from agriculture. The output depressing effect of such policy can be even more serious than captured by the price differential between the doniestic and import priority price. Most importantly, under such a system, much of the transfer out of agriculture does not accrue to the government, but dissipated as rents. Examples of rent dissipation include corruption in water distribution and excess capacity in the textile and flour milling sectors. Many of the subsidies go to unintended recipients. Clearly, revenue could be generated from agriculture in a far more efficient fashion while pursuing other worthwhile goals. Progressive direct taxes could raise revenue ir. an efficient manner while facilitating pursuit of

**4** Sce World Bank (1993). S In the political economy view, negative rates of protection and negative producer subsidy equivalents are seen as "taxes' on the agriculture sector.

9
in labor scarcity which increase the value of value time. This factor explains the results in the simulations by Young (2005) where the AIDS epidemic results in _higher_ per capita consumption in the South African economy.

While there is increasing evidence of short-run income impacts on households due to shocks such as large-scale fiscal crises (see works cited in Fallon and Lucas, 2002), morbidity shocks (Kochar, 1995), and weather variation (Paxson, 1992; Kinsey, Burger and Gunning, 1998), there are fewer studies on the income effects of deaths of household members. Grimm (2006) examines the consumption of survivors’ after the death of a household member in Indonesia, including deaths of children and elderly household members. In this setting, given low prevalence levels, deaths are unlikely to be primarily due to HIV/AIDS. Christiaensen, Hoffmann and Sarris (2006) and Chapoto and Jayne (2006) study the relatively short-run impact of deaths on consumption levels (for deaths in the last 2 years in Tanzania and Zambia, respectively), while Yamano and Jayne (2004) study the impact of adult deaths on activities and particular sources of income. Consumption losses from health shocks can extend beyond the short-run impacts as shown in the study of panel data from 1999-2004 from Ethiopia in Dercon, Hoddinott and Woldehanna (2005).

In their recent review of household studies of the impact of HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality on household income and expenditure, Naidu and Harris (2005) emphasize the gaps in this literature including comprehensive measures of household expenditure (or income) and longitudinal data with which to track impacts over time. The lack of quantitative studies of the impact of an adult death at the household or individual level perhaps stems in large part from the difficulty in collecting data with the appropriate information to analyze the impact of adult mortality within households. To this end, this project follows on the original panel data collected 4
Policy Research Working Paper 8878

# **Abstract**

This paper applies an innovative method to estimate poverty in India in the absence of recent expenditure data. The method utilizes expenditure data from 2004-05, 2009–10, and 2011–12 to impute household expenditure into a survey of durable goods expenditure conducted in 201415. At the $1.90 per day international poverty line, the preferred model predicts a 2014–15 head- count poverty rate of 10 percent in urban areas and 16.4 percent in rural areas, implying a poverty rate of 14.6 percent nationally. The implied poverty elasticity with respect to growth in per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is within the range of past experience, and states with higher gross domestic product growth saw greater predicted poverty reductions. In validation tests, the model’s predictions perform comparably to the World Bank’s current adjustment method when predicting for 2011–12 but they are far more accurate when predicting for 2004–05. Three alternative specifications give moderately higher estimates of poverty. The results indicate that survey-to-survey imputation, when feasible, is a preferable alternative to the current method used to adjust survey-based poverty estimates to later years.

This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at dnewhouse@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
15 through the externalities they generate. (See Birdsall, 1989b: Akin, Birdsall and de Ferranti, 1987, Table , for comparisons of the relative costeffectiveness of these vs. hospital services in reducing mortality.) But, because they have public good characteristics and many of their beneficiaries are poor, they are noit likely to be provided by the private market; hence they are a logical candidate for public funding on efficiency grounds.

However, in many countries, we observe relatively little public health money going to these cost-effective programs (where government intervention is warranted because of private market failure) and consequently population coverage is very limited. Instead, a large proportion of public health budgets is spent on hospitals, usually located in urban areas, even in countries where the vast majority of the population lives in rural areas, with high mortality rates caused by diseases that need not be treated in hospitals.

In Bangladesh in 1986 hospitals consumed over 80Z of recurrent public health spending. In Brazil in 1982, 78Z of public health funds were spent on high technology hospital procedures (kidney dialysis, coronary by-pass, Caesarian sections) for relatively small groups of urban patients , at least some of whom could afford to finance these services out of private medical insurance in fee-charging hospitals. In Zimbabwe, which has tried to make its health sector more egalitarian, two-thirds of Ministry of Health expenditures are for hospital services and 60Z of these expenditures were absorbed by four hospitals in Harare. In Tanzania, which has made a special effort to improve rural clinics, 60Z of the recurrent health budget was nevertheless spent on hospitals in 1983-84. (These examples are from selected years in the 1980s from Griffin, 1989 and World Bank, 1988).
13 The pre- and the post-Great Recession periods display some distinctive common features, most notably the lower long-run elasticity compared to the 1990s and the higher short-run responsiveness of trade to income shocks.<sup>8</sup> In this respect, these findings confirm the insights of the previous subsection: The global trade slowdown has deep roots, and the change in the income-trade relationship is not a byproduct of the financial crisis.

But the pre- and post-Great Recession periods also present some remarkable differences. In particular, the long-run link between trade and income appears much more attenuated after the financial crisis. A legitimate question is whether this lower long-run trade elasticity truly reflects a structural shift. Performing a non-linear Wald test indicates that there is a significant structural break between the period preceding and the one following the crisis. However, it is difficult to rule out that the long-run post-crisis trade elasticity is affected by the long cycle that appears to characterize the Great Recession, particularly in the context of advanced economies.<sup>9</sup> In this context, a period of five years may be too short to capture longrun trends and the current estimate may capture a “transitional” rather than a long-run elasticity.

# **IV.   THE GLOBAL TRADE SLOWDOWN IN RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT**

In the previous section, we analyzed the dynamics of trade and income data and estimated the long-run and short-run elasticities of trade with respect to income as well as the speed of adjustment of trade to its long-run equilibrium. The key finding is that the relationship between world trade and world income has undergone a structural change. While the short-

> 8 Formal tests confirm that there is a significant structural break between the 1990s and the 2000s (both, pre and post-Great Recession).

> 9 Several factors could in principle disproportionately affect trade. For instance, deleveraging in advanced economies impacts durable goods (that are more trade intensive) to a larger extent than non-durable goods. Confidence about future prospects may have a similar effect on trade, as it also disproportionately affects demand of durables.
|||**Table 7**<br>**(Probit mo**<br>|**. Correlate**<br>**del, margin**<br>|**s of Sudden**<br>**al effects, 2**<br>|**Stops**<br>**003-2014)**<br>||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|
|VIX, Log|0.01***|0.0114***|0.0114***|0.0106***|0.0113***|0.0064**|0.0099***|0.0062**|
||[6.63]|[6.56]|[6.74]|[6.29]|[6.42]|[2.25]|[3.75]|[2.04]|
|US Policy Rates (%)|0.01|0.0051*|0.0054*|0.0048*|0.0053*|0.0035|0.0057*|0.0039|
||[1.60]|[1.76]|[1.88]|[1.75]|[1.79]|[1.05]|[1.87]|[1.21]|
|Capital Flows/GDP|0.00*|0.0014|0.0017|0.0013|0.0009|0.0011|0.0005|0.0007|
||[1.72]|[1.22]|[1.58]|[1.17]|[0.75]|[0.80]|[0.37]|[0.52]|
|Domestic Credit/GDP||0.0034***|0.0032***|0.0017|0.0030***|0.0036***|0.0040***|0.0037***|
|||[3.06]|[2.91]|[1.43]|[2.95]|[2.92]|[3.36]|[3.05]|
|RER (% Change)|||0.0020*||||||
||||[1.76]||||||
|Reserves/GDP||||0.0031**<br>[2.42]|||||
|External Liabilities/GDP|||||0.0012<br>[1.13]||||
|# of Sudden Stops|||||||||
|elsewhere in the world||||||0.0041***||0.0037**|
|||||||[3.06]||[2.39]|
|# of Sudden Stops|||||||||
|elsewhere in the Region|||||||0.0024**|0.0009|
||||||||[2.22]|[0.80]|
|Observations|1,326|1,316|1,310|1,316|1,316|1,316|1,316|1,316|
|Pseudo R-squared|0.263|0.278|0.281|0.291|0.281|0.327|0.305|0.330|

Dependent variable is a binary variable which is equal to 1 if a sudden stop occurs and 0 otherwise. The first quarter of sudden stops are included in the regressions, all subsequent quarters dropped. Domestic variables are averages of previous eight quarters. All variables have been standardized around zero mean and standard deviation equal to 1. Capital flows, domestic credit and reserves, and international investment are in percent of GDP. Real exchange rate is in percent change; an increase denotes a depreciation. VIX is in log; sudden stop episodes elsewhere in the world or region are the number of sudden stops elsewhere in the same quarter. Regressions are estimated with robust standard errors, and observations clustered by countries. Z statistics reported in parentheses. ***,** and * indicate significance at 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively.

24
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26
Table S2.3 The Evolution of the Education Premium

|||||Log|real wag|es ratio||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||HS/p|rimary|or less|Colleg|e/prima|ry or less|Co|llege/|HS|
|Country|1995|2002|2015|1995|2002|2015|1995|2002|2015|
|Argentina|0.23|0.29|0.23|0.71|0.89|0.66|0.48|0.60|0.43|
|Bolivia|0.56|0.69|0.35|1.22|1.47|0.86|0.66|0.78|0.51|
|Brazil|0.69|0.56|0.23|1.38|1.39|0.91|0.69|0.83|0.68|
|Chile|0.38|0.30|0.17|1.04|1.03|0.81|0.66|0.74|0.63|
|Colombia|n.a.|0.56|0.30|n.a.|1.45|1.03|n.a.|0.89|0.72|
|Costa Rica|0.32|0.33|0.28|0.92|0.97|1.12|0.59|0.64|0.83|
|Ecuador|n.a.|0.37|0.22|n.a.|0.99|0.69|n.a.|0.62|0.47|
|Guatemala|n.a.|0.99|0.66|n.a.|1.55|1.22|n.a.|0.56|0.57|
|Honduras|0.71|0.75|0.58|1.30|1.40|1.22|0.59|0.65|0.64|
|Mexico|0.41|0.38|0.24|1.24|1.22|1.01|0.83|0.84|0.77|
|Nicaragua|0.39|0.28|0.15|0.98|0.84|0.67|0.59|0.55|0.52|
|Panama|0.44|0.58|0.41|1.08|1.29|0.92|0.64|0.71|0.51|
|Peru|0.45|0.48|0.38|0.96|1.05|0.85|0.51|0.57|0.47|
|Paraguay|0.62|0.59|0.37|1.27|1.16|0.86|0.65|0.58|0.49|
|El Salvador|0.63|0.54|0.33|1.14|1.17|0.92|0.51|0.63|0.59|
|Uriguay|0.18|0.13|0.12|0.77|0.89|0.72|0.60|0.76|0.59|

_Source_ : Authors’ calculations based on data from the Socioeconomic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank and Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies of the Universidad Nacional de La Plata (CEDLAS) (http://sedlac.econo.unlp.edu.ar/eng). _Note_ : Wages are defined as real hourly income (using 2005 purchasing power parity conversion rates) in the main occupation. The log of real hourly wages in the main occupation (labor income in 2005 purchasing power parity) was regressed on dummies of level of education (five levels), five-year intervals of experience, and all possible interactions. All education categories (college, high school, and primary education) follow country-specific classifications for university degrees, secondary education, and primary education, as defined in each household survey. The college educated labor force comprises workers who completed a university degree or higher. “High school” includes complete secondary education and incomplete college educaton. “Primary or less” includes no formal education, incomplete primary, complete primary, and incomplete secondary education. The sample was restricted to individuals between ages 18 and 65 years who were employees or self-employed and between the 1st and 99th percentiles of the wage distribution.

54