# **Table 2. Output of the sheet “Table_SR”**

Table --.: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2001-2011 (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

||||**Actual**||||||**Projection**|**s**|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||2001|2002|2003|2004|2005||2006|2007|2008|2009<br>|201|0|2011||
|||||||||||||||**Debt-stabilizing**|
|||||||||**I. B**|**aseline Proje**|**ctions**||||**primary**|
|||||||||||||||**balance 11/**|
|**Public sector debt 1/**|89.5|77.8|69.8|63.2|61.2||**54.2**|**49.0**|**44.5**|**39.6**|**3**|**4.4**|**29.0**|**-0.8**|
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (net) 2/|37.3|32.0|21.9|17.5|17.1||16.1|15.1|14.0|13.5|1|2.8|12.1||
|o/w domestic debt (net) 3/|52.2|45.8|47.9|45.8|44.1||38.0|34.0|30.4|26.1|2|1.7|16.9||
|Change in public sector debt|32.0|-11.7|-8.0|-6.6|-2.0||-7.1|-5.1|-4.6|-4.9|-|5.1|-5.4||
|Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+8+16)<br>|30.0<br>|-16.9<br>|-14.6<br>|-8.1<br>|-2.1<br>||-7.1<br>|-5.1<br>|-4.6<br>|-4.9<br>|-<br>|5.1<br>|-5.4<br><br>||
|Primary deficit|-7.8|-6.3|-6.8|-7.0|-6.5||-6.5|-6.5|-6.5|-6.5|-|6.5|-6.5||
|Revenue and grants|75.9|70.8|70.0|67.1|67.2||66.0|65.3|65.3|65.3|6|5.3|65.3||
|<br>Primary (noninterest) expenditure|68.1|64.5|63.2|60.1|60.7||59.4|58.8|58.8|58.8|5|8.8|58.8||
|Seignorage|-3.6|-0.9|-0.9|-1.5|-0.6||-0.7|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|-|0.6|-0.6||
|Automatic debt dynamics:|23.6|-9.7|-7.0|0.4|5.5||0.6|2.4|2.6|2.3||2.0|1.7||
|Contribution from interest rate/growth differential|13.6|-2.2|2.6|2.6|4.5||0.7|2.5|2.6|2.4||2.1|1.8||
|<br>Of which contribution from real interest rate<br>Contribution from domestic real interest rate 4/|9.0<br>7.3|4.4<br>2.2|6.8<br>5.8|8.3<br>7.3|7.4<br>6.2||3.7<br>2.1|5.1<br>3.5|5.0<br>3.5|4.5<br>3.1||4.0<br>2.7|3.5<br><br>2.2||
|Contribution from real interest rate on forein debt 5/|23|21|12|13|16||17|17|16|15||1|13||
|g<br>Contribution from real interest rate on net foreign assets 6/|.<br>-0.5|.<br>0.1|.<br>-0.2|.<br>-0.2|.<br>-0.4||.<br>-0.1|.<br>-0.1|.<br>-0.1|.<br>-0.1|-|.<br>0.1|.<br><br>-0.1||
|Of which contribution from real GDP growth<br>|4.7<br>|-6.6<br>|-4.3<br>|-5.7<br>|-2.9<br>||-2.9<br>|-2.6<br>|-2.3<br>|-2.1<br>|-<br>|1.9<br>|-1.6<br><br>||
|Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation 7/<br>Other identified debt-creating flows<br>|10.0<br>17.8<br>|-7.5<br>0.0<br>|-9.6<br>0.0<br>|-2.2<br>0.0<br>|0.9<br>-0.4<br>||-0.2<br>-0.4<br>|-0.1<br>-0.4<br>|-0.1<br>0.0<br>|-0.1<br>0.0<br>|-|0.<br>0.0<br>|-0.1<br><br>0.0<br><br>||
|Privatization receipts (negative)<br>Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities|17.8<br>0.0|0.0<br>0.0|0.0<br>0.0|0.0<br>0.0|-0.4<br>0.0||-0.4<br>0.0|-0.4<br>0.0|0.0<br>0.0|0.0<br>0.0||0.<br>0.0|0.0<br><br>0.0||
|<br>Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||0.0|0.0||
|Residual, including asset changes (2-3)|2.0|5.2|6.6|1.5|0.1||0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||0.0|0.0||
|Public sector debt-to-revenue ratio 1/|117.9|109.9|99.7|94.2|91.1||82.1|75.1|68.1|60.6|5|2.7|44.4||
|Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio|-398|54|12|-04|-45||06|-14|-19|-16|-|14|-11||
|<br>Required deficit reduction|.<br>32.0|.<br>-11.7|.<br>-8.0|.<br>-6.6|.<br>-2.0||.<br>-7.1|.<br>-5.1|.<br>-4.6|.<br>-4.9|-|.<br>5.1|.<br><br>-5.4||
|**Gross financing** **need 9/**|96.1|66.4|46.1|36.3|36.9||34.3|31.2|28.3|24.9|2|1.5|17.9||
|in billions of U.S. dollars|140.0|122.5|111.0|109.8|128.9<br>10-Year<br>|10-Year<br>|125.1|122.3|119.4|114.0|10|6.2|96.0||
|**Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Assumptions**|||||Historical<br>Average|Standard<br>Deviation||||||||Projected<br>Average|
|Real GDP growth (in percent)|-7.5|7.9|5.8|8.9|4.8<br>4.0|5.6|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0||5.0|5.0|5.0|
|Averae nominal interest rate on ublic debt (in ercent) 10/|585|330|275|223|196<br>400|139|110|132|131|131|1|2|128|127|
|g p p<br>Average nominal interest rate on public domestic debt (in percent) 11/|.<br>80.3|.<br>51.1|.<br>42.0|.<br>28.0|.<br>.<br>22.0|.|.<br>11.3|.<br>14.6|.<br>14.6|.<br>14.6|1|.<br>4.6|.<br><br>14.6|.|
|Average nominal interest rate on forex debt (in percent) 11/|113|79|57|80|103<br>84|20|104|109|109|109|1|09|109|108|
|<br>Average nominal interest rate on NFA (in percent) 12/|.<br>11.3|.<br>7.9|.<br>5.7|.<br>8.0|.<br>.<br>10.3|.|.<br>5.0|.<br>5.0|.<br>5.0|.<br>5.0||.<br>5.0|.<br><br>5.0|.|
|Average real interest rate (including exchange rate revaluation on foreign currency denominated debt)|31.8|-2.2|-3.2|9.4|13.8<br>8.2|11.2|5.5|8.9|9.5|9.3||9.2|9.0|8.6|
|<br>Average real interest rate on public domestic debt (nominal rate minus change in CPI, in percent)|26.9|6.6|16.8|18.2|15.2<br>19.3|20.9|5.3|10.2|11.2|11.1|1|1.1|11.1|10.0|
|Average real interest rate on forex debt (nominal rate minus change in CPI, in percent)<br>Change in the real exchange rate (Local currency per US dollar) 13/<br>|8.5<br>44.3<br>|6.3<br>-20.3<br>|3.5<br>-30.6<br>|5.4<br>-10.3<br>|7.6<br>6.0<br>5.1<br><br>|1.8<br>|8.0<br>-1.0<br>|8.4<br>-0.5<br>|8.4<br>-0.4<br>|8.4<br>-0.8<br>|-<br>|8.4<br>0.8<br>|8.4<br><br>-1.0<br><br>|8.4|
|Nominal appreciation (increase in US dollar value of local currency, in percent)|-53.6|-11.8|17.7|4.3|-8.5<br>-24.0|24.1|-2.4|-1.4|-0.5|-0.2|-|0.2|0.0|...|
|Inflation rate (in percent)<br>US Ifli i|53.4<br>28|44.5<br>16|25.2<br>23|9.9<br>27|6.8<br>51.2<br>27|29.7|6.0<br>24|4.5<br>25|3.5<br>25|3.5<br>25||3.5<br>2|3.5<br><br>25|4.1|
|naton rate (n percent)<br>Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)|.<br>1.5|.<br>2.0|.<br>1.4|.<br>3.6|.<br>5.9<br>16.9|35.9|.<br>2.8|.<br>3.8|.<br>5.0|.<br>5.0||.<br>5.0|.<br><br>5.0|4.4|
|Base Money (percent of GDP)|10.1|7.7|7.0|7.8|7.8<br>8.1|1.2|7.7|7.7|7.7|7.7||7.7|7.7||
|||||||||**II. Stress**|**Tests for Publ**|**ic Debt Rat**|**io**|||**Debt-stabilizing**<br>**primary**|
|**A. Alternative Scenarios**||||||||||||||**balance 17/**|
|A1. Key variables are at their historical averages in 2005-09 14/<br>|||||||**60.2**<br>|**59.3**<br>|**58.6**<br>|**57.8**<br>|**5**<br>|**6.6**<br>|**55.1**<br><br>|**-0.8**<br>|
|A2. No policy change (constant primary balance) in 2005-09|||||||**54.2**|**47.8**|**42.5**|**36.8**|**3**|**0.9**|**24.6**|**-0.1**|
|A3. Country-specific shock in 2005, with reduction in GDP growth (relative to baseline) of one standard<br>l il i ih k f i|deviation|15/|||||**96.1**<br>|**105.5**<br>|**107.8**<br>|**113.5**<br>|**12**<br>|**1.3**<br>|**130.5**<br><br>|**-13.2**<br>|
|A4. Seected varabes are consstent wt maret orecast n 2005-09<br>**B. Bound Tests**|||||||**54.2**|**49.0**|**44.3**|**39.3**||**4.**|**28.5**|**-0.7**|
|B1. Real interest rate is at historical average plus two standard deviations in 2005 and 2006|||||||**76.3**|**96.9**|**94.4**|**91.6**|**8**|**8.6**|**85.4**|**-3.0**|
|B2. Real GDP growth is at historical average minus two standard deviations in 2005 and 2006<br>B3 Primar balance is at historical averae minus two standard deviations in 2005 and 2006|||||||**71.0**<br>**601**|**93.7**<br>**611**|**107.7**<br>**571**|**122.2**<br>**528**|**13**<br>|**7.3**<br>**8**|**152.8**<br><br>**434**|**-5.8**<br>**-14**|
|. y g<br>B4. Combination of 2-4 using one standard deviation shocks|||||||**.**<br>**76.9**|**.**<br>**97.2**|**.**<br>**96.3**|**.**<br>**95.1**|**9**|**.**<br>**3.8**|**.**<br><br>**92.2**|**.**<br>**-4.6**|
|B5. One time 30 percent real depreciation in 2005 16/<br>|||||||**63.5**<br>|**58.7**<br>|**54.6**<br>|**50.2**<br>|**4**<br>|**5.5**<br>|**40.6**<br><br>|**-1.3**<br>|
|B6. 10 percent of GDP increase in other debt-creating flows in 2005|||||||**64.2**|**59.4**|**55.4**|**51.0**||**6.**|**41.5**|**-1.3**|

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