The three price elasticity scenarios mimic the short- versus the long-term effects of tobacco taxes. There is evidence that adult smokers will only present small changes in their behavior if prices increase; the lower-bound elasticity would tend to represent this behavior more closely. In contrast, younger groups of the population would show more elastic demand, similar to the upper-bound elasticity. After a few decades, we expect the impact of the tax policy to resemble the upper-bound elasticity scenario.

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