second period: by 1999 coffee farmers represent 39 percent of the population in our sample.<sup>8</sup> The significant increase in the size of this group is the result of many farmers deciding to start growing coffee and will be discussed in more detail below.

With regard to welfare levels, coffee farmers initially exhibited lower mean per capita consumption levels than other rural households in coffee regions. Only rural households in non-coffee regions consumed almost as little. With its large rural-urban income gap, Uganda fits well into the pattern prevailing in much of Sub-Saharan Africa.

Table 1: Per capita consumption levels by household type, 1992-1999

|_Hhld_|_1992_|_h_<br>|_1995_|_h_<br>||_1999_|_h_<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_ouseo type_|_Mean pc cons_|_Pop. Sare_<br>_(%)_|_Mean pc cons_|_Pop. Sare_<br>_(%)_|_Mean_|_pc cons_|_Pop. Sare_<br>_(%)_|
|Coffee farmers|4908|22.3|6101|37.8|7|330|39.0|
||_4592_<br>_5224_||_5713_<br>_6489_||_6939_|_7721_||
|Rural in coffee<br>regions|_4879_<br>_5586_<br>5233|46.1|_5751_<br>_7137_<br>6444|33.9|_7152_<br>7|_8565_<br>859|30.6|
|Rural in non-<br>coffee regions|_4540_<br>_5286_<br>4913|23.0|_4171_<br>_5322_<br>4746|21.9|_6631_<br>7|_7403_<br>017|21.4|
|Urban in coffee<br>regions|_6399_<br>_10417_<br>8408|6.5|_8211_<br>_12115_<br>10163|5.2|_13300_<br>15|_17866_<br>583|7.0|
|Urban in non-<br>coffeeregions|_6744_<br>_8437_<br>7590|2.1|_9323_<br>_12938_<br>11131|1.3|_12953_<br>16|_19291_<br>122|2.0|
|Total|_5057_<br>_5631_<br>_5344_|100.0|_5821_<br>_6575_<br>6198|100.0|_7709_<br>8|_8641_<br>175|100.0|

Source: Authors’ calculations.

Note: In all our calculations, we use the official consumption aggregate provided by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) based on the work by Simon Appleton. Values are in constant 1989 shillings. For details, see the technical appendix in Appleton (2001a). We also use official poverty lines as documented in Appleton (2003). 95 % confidence intervals in italics (standard errors corrected for survey design).

Not surprisingly, coffee farmers experienced the highest welfare gains during the coffee price boom, but they were closely followed by the other household groups residing in coffee regions (Table 2). Overall, growth in per capita consumption was markedly higher in coffee regions than in non-coffee regions where rural households even experienced negative growth rates. In the first half of the 1990s, the most significant difference in consumption growth occurred between the rural households of the two regions, which points to substantial but

> 8 It should be noted that the sub-sample is not representative for the regions covered, as only the full national sample is constructed to be representative and district samples are so only to a limited degree. In addition, we have received comments from several observers of Ugandan agriculture that this increase may be exaggerated. An analysis of the primary sampling units however does not hint at any major differences in the sampling procedure between the three surveys, and in particular between the first and the two more recent surveys. We therefore consider the design of the Integrated Household Survey (IHS) from 1992/93 that includes questions on agricultural production in a separate “agricultural enterprise” questionnaire as a possible source of the underestimation of the share of coffee farming households for this period.

12