**Table 4:** Impact of Mobility Reducing Policies on Hourly Speed (Daytime and Pre-Curfew Hours)

|||Panel A. No Contro|ls||Panel B. Congestion C|ontrols|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Daytime<br>(5:00-17:00)<br>(1)|Pre-Curfew Hours<br>(17:00-20:00)<br>(2)|Daytime and<br>Pre-Curfew Hours<br>(3)|Daytime<br>(5:00-17:00)<br>(4)|Pre-Curfew Hours<br>(17:00-20:00)<br>(5)|Daytime and<br>Pre-Curfew Hours<br>(6)|
|Curfew Period (Post)|1.395***<br>(0.226)|1.557***<br>(0.593)|1.514***<br>(0.226)|0.574***<br>(0.190)|1.013**<br>(0.403)|0.682***<br>(0.196)|
|_I_2020 (2020)|0.114|0.379|0.240|1.416***|3.662***|1.931***|
||(0.228)|(0.614)|(0.226)|(0.194)|(0.435)|(0.198)|
|Curfew Period (Post) x 2020|4.492***|10.201***|4.457***|-1.128***|1.464**|-1.641***|
||(0.271)|(0.763)|(0.271)|(0.235)|(0.646)|(0.241)|
|Pre-Curfew Hours|||-4.651***|||1.614**|
||||(0.975)|||(0.786)|
|Curfew Period (Post) x Pre-Curfew Hours|||-0.683<br>(0.455)|||-0.228<br>(0.360)|
|Pre-Curfew Hours x 2020|||-0.455<br>(0.429)|||0.178<br>(0.356)|
|Curfew Period (Post) x Pre-Curfew Hours x 2020|||5.959***<br>(0.731)|||4.993***<br>(0.527)|
|Waze Delay (hr)||||-7.157***<br>(0.217)|-5.985***<br>(0.393)|-6.502***<br>(0.174)|
|Waze Delay (hr)<sup>2</sup>||||1.045***<br>(0.059)|0.519***<br>(0.081)|0.797***<br>(0.041)|
|Waze Delay (hr)<sup>3</sup>||||-0.051***<br>(0.005)|-0.015***<br>(0.005)|-0.034***<br>(0.003)|
|Constant|13.698|-25.808|7.475|54.842***|19.236|46.879***|
||(13.278)|(38.932)|(13.085)|(8.078)|(20.416)|(7.799)|
|Observations|2981|744|3725|2981|744|3725|
|R<sup>2</sup>|0.771|0.755|0.776|0.907|0.898|0.905|

_Notes_ . Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. *** (**) (*) denotes significance at 1% (5%) (10%) level. Regressions include fixed effects for week and day of the week, and controls for weather (temperature, precipitation and two measures of wind). Google speed data is missing for some hours.

# **4.3 Timing of the Curfew**

When the curfew is revised on June 6, 2020 to start two hours later, we can look at how the timing of the curfew can affect the externality on road safety.<sup>8</sup> There is a significant but smaller drop in the number of crashes during the revised curfew period (Table 5 Column 1). Importantly, there is no longer a spillover effect of more crashes occurring during the pre-curfew hours from 19:00 to 22:00 (Column 2). Studying additional externalities by using the proxy for rate of crashes, there is no significant impact on the probability of a crash either during the curfew hours or the pre-curfew hours (Columns 3 and 4). These findings suggest that the exact timing of the curfew can have important implications for road safety. Setting the start time of the curfew after the evening rush hour can minimize negative externalities of increased crashes due to people speeding to get home before the curfew. Depending on the purpose of the curfew, there may be less flexibility with the specific hours. If the main goal, though, is having people stay home during the night hours, a curfew start time at 21:00 seems to be a better alternative for minimizing the externalities on road safety.

> 8We focus on the first two months after the curfew is revised in order to match the length of time for which we observe the first curfew. The new curfew started at 21:00 hours but we again take 22:00 as the start of the curfew time to allow for the delays in the police registration of the crashes.

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