rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
that were already working from a village branch were also assigned to the treatment of the relevant FU. FAs in the treatment group received one of two bonus schemes. The credit bonus incentivized performance on disbursement and loan recovery. The social bonus incentivized performance on observable correlates of CO quality: new CO formation, regular CO meeting, and savings by CO members.

The bonus scheme was designed to be easily understood, fair, and transparent. Each bonus had two triggers. The first trigger determined whether an FA was eligible to receive a bonus while the second trigger determined the bonus amount once the first trigger was achieved. During the intervention, slightly more than 25 percent of treatment FAs qualified for a bonus each month. In any given month, two-fifths of FAs offered the credit bonus and one-fifth of FAs offered the social bonus qualified for it. Appendix Table A.1 describes the triggers and provides more details about the bonus scheme. Appendix Figure A.1 presents the monthly frequency and the amount of bonus payments made during the study period.

Since social-related tasks rely more heavily on the discretionary actions of CO members, the social outcomes might be less reflective of FA effort and may be more difficult to achieve. According to the baseline survey, 56.8 percent of FAs find CO quality difficult to improve while only 18.9 percent of FAs report repayment and disbursement difficult to improve.<sup>9</sup> For these reasons, we assigned more branches to the social bonus and control group compared to the number of FUs in the credit bonus. Appendix Table A.2 reports the list of FUs in the study and their bonus assignments, and the timeline of the study is presented in Appendix Figure A.2.

NRSP management had been setting monthly targets on several credit and social empowerment outcomes even before the intervention, but prior to our intervention they were not linked to any performance incentive scheme. These targets were based on past performance and were meant to be achievable but were set at a higher level than current performance. Put differently, an FA working with the same intensity as before should not receive a bonus. The intervention only provided monetary incentives to FAs for achieving these targets and it did not affect their career progression or any other aspect of the program. While FAs could be promoted to Senior FA and earn a slightly higher salary, only one of the 162 study FAs had a Master’s degree, the required schooling level to be promoted to SO or CrO.

Treatment FAs that had met their monthly target received the incentive as a bonus pay added to their base monthly salary. For FAs working in teams, the bonus was paid based on whether the joint performance of the team exceeded the target. The monthly base salary of an FA was about

> 9In addition, social mobilization outcomes like savings and attendance are less costly for CO members to renege on compared to defaulting on their loans.

8
6

# **E Choice of the Discount Rate**

For the discount rate, 4% is a compromise between the fact that the historical annual rate of return on U.S. Treasury bills is around 1 percent whereas the rate of return on equity is around 7 percent, see Mehra and Prescott (1985). Related studies such as Azevedo et al. (2020) and Psacharopoulos et al. (2021) assume a lower discount rate of 3 percent. They use 3 percent as it is consistent with the standards in global health analyses, established primarily through the recommendations of the _Panels on CostEffectiveness in Health and Medicine_ (Gold et al., 1996; Neumann et al., 2016). The Gates reference case (Wilkinson et al., 2014), developed to support health economic evaluations funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation globally, also endorses a discount rate of 3 percent. However, our purpose is not to evaluate the health costs of the pandemic, but its economic impact, so we prefer a rate drawn from the macroeconomics literature.

# **F Most Likely Impact of the Actual COVID-19 Shock**

The left panel of Figure A.6 shows the impact on GDP per capita of these calibrated shocks. On impact, output decreases more in the MIC, simply because the initial shock is larger. After that, however, it is the HIC which suffers more, due to the greater importance of schooling to output. Once the pandemic is over, the HIC and the MIC look similar in terms of income dynamics. Below we shall analyze why this might be.

The right panel of Figure A.6 displays the welfare impact, equivalent to 2 _._ 5 percent of steady state income in perpetuity in the HIC, compared to 2 _._ 2 percent in the MIC and 1 _._ 5 percent in the LIC. This is equivalent to a one-off hit of 63, 55 and 36 percent of income respectively. Alternatively, this is equivalent to $15 _,_ 478, $3 _,_ 478 and $419. Using population shares as before, this amounts to 59 _._ 4 percent of global GDP ($50 _._ 3 trillion). HICs account for 66 _._ 6 percent of the global cost of the COVID-19 shock through disruptions to human capital, because they make up such a large share of global GDP in the first place, as well as because they are severely impacted.

After ten years, when the direct impact of the shock has worn off, the impact is equivalent to 1 _._ 2 percent of steady state income in perpetuity in the HIC, compared to 1 _._ 2 percent in the MIC and 0 _._ 7 percent in the LIC. This is equivalent to a one-off hit of 29, 29 and 17 percent of income respectively. Alternatively, this is equivalent to $15 _,_ 478, $3 _,_ 478 and $419. Using population shares as before, this amounts to 28 _._ 7 percent of global GDP ($24 _._ 4 trillion). HICs account for 63 _._ 3 percent of the global cost of the shock through disruptions to human capital, because they make up such a large share of global GDP in the first place, and because the impact there is highly persistent.

In Figure A.7, we can also break down this impact by schooling and experience. The left panel shows that the impact through schooling is highest for the MIC than for the
structural changes vith regard to the degree of government intervention in the labor market -- more significant changes are observed through time on a country basis. The variety of this ratio across countries is still more significant, and may be indicative of the degree of distortion introduced by government intervention in terms of the cost of labor in formal labor markets. In general, simple regional averages reveal that NWC ratios are higher in Europe and Latin America than in Asia and Africa. Latin American countries such **as** Argentina, Mexico and, notably enough, Colombia, have highest NWC ratios in the sample of LDCs. Chile, after social security reforms implemnted during the late 1970s, attained a NWC reductlon of one half (i.e., from 51 to 26 percent of total labor earnings between 1975 and 1980). In contrast, Colombia's NWC ratio has been growing significantly since the 1970s, with extroely stringent regulations on severance compensation **(see,** IBRD-ILO, 1982). In Argentina, the observed increase in the NWC ratio ls due to employer's contributions to housing and health benefits programs created after 1975.

With the clear exception of Singapore and Hong Kong the NWC ratio in the Aslan countries **has** remaine. fairly stable for the last 20 years, thus also being very similar among South Asian and East Asian countries. In general terms, the NEC ratio in Asia is about half that observed in most Latin American countries. It should be emphasized that in most Asian economies, particularly Hong Kong and Korea, there are not many programs demanding employers' contributions; even social zi,arity payments are discretionary, although most employers contribute a voluntary five percent of total wages to pension funds. Specifically, in East Asian economies, there are only a few regulations on hiring and firing.
Table 4: Closures provide valuable information, but the value of this information is competed away

||Depend|ent varia|ble: asin|h(tons)|
|---|---|---|---|---|
||Potential|closures|Actual|closures|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|
|1_{_Near_}_|0.171|0.104|0.310|-0.022|
||(0.073)|(0.028)|(0.080)|(0.033)|
|Distance to shore (km)|0.011|0.004|0.011|0.004|
||(0.002)|(0.001)|(0.002)|(0.001)|
|Constant|3.293||3.306||
||(0.102)||(0.082)||
|Fixed efects||X||X|

Notes: All regressions have 246,914 observations. 1 _{_ Near _}_ is an indicator for whether the set occurred inside a treatment bin in which there is a significant change in juvenile catch because of the temporary spatial closures policy. In Columns 1 and 2, Near is defined relative to potential closures (mean of this indicator is .798). In Columns 3 and 4, Near is defined relative to actual closures declared by the regulator (mean of this indicator equals .391). Electronic logbook data are for all vessels from April 2017 to January 2020. Regressions in Columns 2 and 4 include vessel by season fixed effects, day-of-sample fixed effects, and two-degree grid cell by season fixed effects. Standard errors clustered at level of two-week-of-sample by two-degree grid cell.

to occur near potential closures catch 11% more tons on average (Column 2). But when I instead define the near indicator relative to actual closures declared by the regulator, I find that sets near actual closures do not catch more tons of anchoveta (Column 4). This null result is consistent with Proposition 2a in Appendix B: in the Bayes-Nash equilibrium, vessels fish near closures until the profit from doing so equals the profit from fishing elsewhere.

These results illustrate one benefit of my potential closures identification strategy. Since closures are publicly announced, the _ex post_ value of this information can be competed away due to congestion; there are diminishing marginal returns when more vessels fish from the same local, exhaustible anchoveta population (Smith, 1969; Huang and Smith, 2014). I create potential closures from the same electronic logbook data the regulator uses to determine actual closures. If they were announced, potential closures would communicate similar information to vessels as actual closures: fishing occurred recently in the area, so anchoveta are likely abundant nearby. But because potential closures and the electronic logbook data 38
contributions as well as service charges for specific services received. The major categories of services offered by the Resource Centers are facilitation of external audit, training, account maintenance, and facilitation of linkage with banks. Presently, MYRADA partially subsidizes the costs of the cost of the Resource Centers in the form of its staff time and infrastructure support, but expects them to become self-sufficient in due course (MYRADA n.d.).

Several government agencies are also promoting SHG federations. The Society for Elimination of Rural Poverty (SERP), an agency formed by the Andhra Pradesh government, is implementing two World Bank-supported projects – Andhra Pradesh District Poverty Initiatives Project and Andhra Pradesh Poverty Reduction Project. The major component of these projects supports existing SHGs, forms new SHGs, and federates them at the village and mandal level.<sup>7</sup> These projects together expect to form over 500 mandal-level federations. These federations are similar in size and functions to the ones promoted by DHAN (World Bank 2000, 2003). These projects also provide investment funds to the federations to be lent to the SHGs. Other government agencies involved in promoting SHGs and SHG federations include Women Development Corporations in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. These federations are similar to SHG federations supported by MYRADA in size, structure, and functions.

Sa-dhan, a network on MFOs in India, recently studied 27 SHG federations. The federations were from all regions of India, with the majority (13) from the south. Nineteen federations provide financial services, while eight do not. Among the 19 providing financial services, only six have strong member control; others are primarily controlled by the promoter agency. The most common structure was a three-tier one, though both lesser and more levels of aggregation exist. The study concludes that federations involved in financial intermediation are likely to achieve sustainability while those involved only in social intermediation are unlikely to do so.

# **2. Objectives** , **Methodology and Scope**

# **Objectives**

The overall objective of the study is to explore the potential of SHG federations in making SHGs financially and organizationally sustainable, and to recommend strategies to strengthen them. The specific objectives were:

- a) Identify the services provided by the federations and analyze their benefits to SHGs,

- b) Assess the financial viability of SHGs and SHG federations, and estimate the cost of promoting them,

- c) Identify the constraints in federating SHGs, and d) Recommend strategies to strengthen SHG federations.

> 7 Mandals are sub-district development unit unique to Andhra Pradesh.  These are smaller in geographical size and population than _blocks_ , the sub-district development units in all other states in India.

- 9 -
<!-- Start of picture text --> US Container Imports 2007-2019<br>Source: Panjiva<br>Total Number of Shipments Total TEU Shippment volume Total Vessel TEU Capacity<br>30<br>25<br>a)<br>iu<br>Ee<br>#<br>© 20<br>=<br>a<br>a<br>2<br>45<br>oO<br>wo<br>Cc<br>2<br>5<br>2007 2009 2011 20135 2015 2047 20192007 2009 2041 2013 2015 2017 20192007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019<br>Year<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> US Share of World Fleet Containership Capacity<br>°<br>2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019<br>Year<br><!-- End of picture text -->
Tyszynski H (1951), “World trade in manufactured commodities, 1899-1950”, The Manchester School 19(3), 272-304.

World Bank (2009) _Unlocking Global Opportunities: The Aid for Trade Program of the World Bank Group,_ Washington, DC: World Bank.

World Bank (2010), Investing Across Borders, Washington, DC, accessible at http://iab.worldbank.org.

WTO (1995), Negotiating Group on Maritime Transport Services: Questionnaire on Maritime Transport Services, WTO Doc. No. S/NGMTS/W/2/ (various addenda).

Wörz J (2005), “Skill intensity in foreign trade and economic growth”, _Empirica_ 32(1), 117-144.

# **ANNEXES**

## **Annex 1: Theoretical underpinnings**

It is difficult to identify a single framework able to deliver a testable specification aimed at identifying the microeconomic and macroeconomic constraints of supply-side export performance or competitiveness. However some insights can be gained by referring to the framework in Melitz-Ottaviano (RES 2008), Ottaviano et al. (EP 2008) and Corcos et al. (2009). The MelitzOttaviano (RES 2008) yields the following expression for bilateral trade from country _i_ to country _c_ in sector _k_ :

### **Equation 12**

Equation 11 states that bilateral trade from country _i_ to country _c_ in sector _k_ is determined by demand in country c ( _D_<sup>_c_</sup> ), bilateral trade costs and barriers (ρick ), and by the competitiveness of firms in the origin country, which – following the literature on international trade with firm heterogeneity (Ottaviano et al., EP 2008 and Corcos et al. 2009) – we approximate with a measure that indicates the minimum level of profitability a firm needs to survive and thrive in _cc_ sector _k_ and destination market _c_ . This measure is the marginal cost cut-off ( _mk_ ) specific to a sector _k_ and an export market _c._ The number of competitors present in the destination market (Eki [max�mki �]−γk), the degree of product differentiation among varieties of a good ( _v)_ and the skewness of the distribution of firms along the productivity parameter (γ) also contribute to determine bilateral trade.

_cc_ The term _mk_ is a concept typical of models of international trade with firm heterogeneity. Equation 12 – taken from Ottaviano et al. (EP 2008) and Corcos et al. (2009) – shows that the cost _cc_ cut-off _mk_ depends on three key elements: First, the size of demand (embodied in the demandside or pull factors _Dk_ ). Second, the remoteness of the market, as summarized in the matrix of M ic ∑i=1�Rk <u>�</u> sector specific bilateral trade costs ~~,~~ which determines which foreign firms are effectively |Pk| able to reach market c, given the specific costs and barriers they have to face for exporting product _k_ from country _i_ to country _c_ . Third, the ability of country _i_ - to generate low-cost (i.e. high- _i_ productivity) firms (which we denote with the term _ψk_ ). A bundling parameter φk

38
participate. In Guatemala, approximately 90,000 sixth graders drop out before enrolling in seventh grade, while in Honduras, approximately 40,000 do. How should students be targeted for this program in each country? In Table 5, we compare the early warning models to two other possible targeting approaches – targeting students in the poorest municipalities and targeting schools with the highest dropout rates. In both countries, the early warning models perform substantially better than the other options in identifying students who will eventually drop out, particularly for the smaller program sizes, and targeting students based on these models rather than targeting poor municipalities or high-dropout schools could reduce misallocation of resources by 30 to 80%.<sup>13</sup> However, school-level targeting also performs well and could be the most suitable targeting approach for interventions with substantial economies of scale.

# **5. Conclusions**

Many developing countries, including Guatemala and Honduras, are approaching universal primary school enrollment and have also made substantial progress in expanding access to secondary school. However, dropout is a pressing concern for policy makers in both countries, as fewer than 50% of young people succeed in completing a full course of basic education. Policies and programs aimed at reducing dropout may be made more effective when education systems are able to identify with reasonable accuracy the students who are most likely to leave school early.

In both Guatemala and Honduras, substantial advances in the scope and reliability of education administrative data have created an opportunity to do just that, as illustrated in this paper. Using routinely collected administrative data and relatively simple analytical techniques, we show that early warning models can accurately predict which students will drop out, providing potentially actionable information to system and school leaders. The results immediately suggest two areas for further exploration: improving the early warning analysis and moving from early warning analysis to “early warning systems”.

> 13 The calculation on reduced misallocation is based on comparing the dollars wasted in Table 3. In Guatemala, due to the presence of missing data in the covariates used in the early warning system, the sample has been restricted to be exactly the same across the three methods to allocate resources.

16
# **Assessing Poverty and Distributional Impacts of the Global Crisis in the Philippines: A Microsimulation Approach**

Bilal Habib, Ambar Narayan, Sergio Olivieri and Carolina Sanchez‐Paramo<sup>*****</sup>

> * This paper is the second in a series of country notes to be prepared under the work program on Analyzing the Distributional Impact of the Financial Crisis, in the Poverty Reduction Group of the PREM Network. For this exercise we gratefully acknowledge the data, inputs and advice received from the Philippines Country Team of the World Bank – in particular Andrew Mason, Manohar Sharma, Laura Pabón, Eric Le Borgne, Jehan Arulpragasam, Ulrich Lachler, Sheryll Namingit, and Rashiel Besana Velarde.
aggregate output supply, investment and input use equations, and is, therefore, used in the second stage estimation of these latter equations.

The third econometric problem arises because formal agriculture lending is not exogenously given or randomly distributed across space. As discussed at length, in Binswanger, Khandker, and Rosenzweig (1988), both the farmers and financial institutions are influenced by agricultural opportunities implied in the - -roclimatic endowments of a district. That means, the lending agencies will lend more in areas where agricultural opportunities are better, risk is lower, and hence, chances for loan recovery are higher (Binswanger and Rosenzweig, 1986). An unobserved variable problem thus arises for the econometric estimation and is associated with unmeasured or unmeasurable district characteristics. This problem can be overcome by the use of district-level panel data.

The system of equations to be estimated with the district-level time-series data are the following:

- (1) ICrj

- = **ICr(Xjt, Zjt,** ^,, **_5)_**

- (2) **Qjt Qjt(Xjt,** ICrjt, zjt, **5j)** (3) **INPjt** INpj,(Xj,, ICrjt, **,Ujt,** (4) INvp =

- INpj,(Xj,, ICrjt, **,Ujt,** _5)_

- = **INvjt(Xj, ICrj,, INvj(,.,), pj,, 8j)**

- **_(5)_ WAGFi** = **WAGF,(Xj,, ICrj, "t, 5i)**

**15**
# **2.  Current and Future Aquatic Salinity in the Sundarbans Region**

This paper draws extensively on the findings of Dasgupta, et al. (2015), who quantify the prospective relationship between climate-induced changes in sea level, temperature, rainfall, and riverine flows from the Himalayas, and the spread and intensity of aquatic salinization in the coastal zone. Their research takes account of projected land subsidence in the Ganges Delta, as well as alternative levels of upstream freshwater withdrawal. The research develops 27 aquatic salinity scenarios in 2050 that incorporate three global emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, A2)<sup>4</sup> from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4); two estimates of sea level rise by 2050 (27 cm for scenario B1, 32 cm for A1B and A2); three global circulation models (IPSL-CM4, MIROC3.2, ECHO-G);<sup>5</sup> and three annual subsidence rates for land in the lower Ganges Delta (2, 5 and 9 mm/year). Each of the 27 scenarios is used to produce high-resolution maps of projected maximum aquatic salinity during December 2049 and six months in 2050: January-June.<sup>6</sup>

- 4 Basic elements of the three scenarios are as follows:

- **B1** : Rapid economic growth with convergence among regions; global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter; rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies.

**A1B** : Rapid economic growth with convergence among regions; global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter; rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies; energy from mixed fossil and renewable sources.

**A2** : Non-convergent economic development; continuously increasing population; heterogeneous technologies and energy sources.

- 5  Model implementing institutions are as follows:

IPSL-CM4: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, France; MIROC3.2: Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo,

- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan,

- Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan;

- ECHO-G: Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Germany,

- Model and Data Group, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, Korea Meteorological Administration.

> 6 Average salinity concentrations of the rivers in the coastal area are higher in the dry season than in the monsoon because of lack of freshwater flow from upstream. Salinity generally increases almost linearly from October (postmonsoon) to late May (pre-monsoon) with the gradual reduction in freshwater flow. At the end of May, salinity level drops sharply because of rainfall and upstream flow of freshwater through the river system and remains low until early October.

6