rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
nationally representative sample of 15,000 Americans. They argue that citizen participation is the heart of a functioning democracy in which politicians respond to citizen concerns, interests, preferences and needs. This presumes that the voice of citizens is clear, understood, and loud so policymakers have an incentive to pay attention to what is being said. In the US, as dollars have substituted for time as inputs into the political campaigns, Verba et al show how participation in the political process becomes skewed to the wealthy and is responsive to their priorities and concerns. "When money replaces time as the principle form of political currency, the playing field is no longer level" (1997, p.21). The voice of the poor gets drowned out, which leads to their greater exclusion. The figures show that the top 3 percent of the sample with family incomes over $125,000 produce more than their proportionate share of the vote, protests, campaign hours and 35 percent of the money contributed. The top two income groups, with annual incomes over $75,000 account for more than half the money contributed to political campaigns, while the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution, with incomes less than $15,000 produce only 14 percent of the vote and 2 percent of the campaign dollars.

These distinctions are important because there is limited overlap of concerns and interests between these two groups. The disadvantaged, roughly one-sixth of the public with no education beyond high school, are more than twice as likely, and those receiving means-tested welfare benefits are four times as likely, to focus on basic human needs, poverty, jobs, housing and health. The concerns of the more advantaged are linked to economic issues, such as taxes, government spending, budget, and social/moral issues, such as abortion or pornography. In sum, public officials hear many more messages from the advantaged than from the poor because the former belong to many more organizations that mobilize voice and resources. The authors conclude that the only way to have the voices of the poor heard is through creating organizations of the poor. These organizations can be political or non-political or religious. Working within these organizations, the disadvantaged can learn new civic skills and networking that provides the basis for the emergence of social and political movements. The civil rights movement is a case in point.

Although the norms about racial equality have changed in the US since the civil rights movement, exclusion based on race is still common, subtle in the higher echelons of society and more blatant against those who live in low income areas. The disadvantaged may be excluded not because of active discrimination, but because of non-overlapping social networks. What is striking about US society is the lack of interconnectedness in social and civic life between whites and blacks. Varshney (1998) argues that the different degrees of civic connectedness among 26
sustained path of export orientadon. Chile is close to becoming the "exceptlon that proves the rule" in this regard since the long period in which the Pincochet regime has been abie to function has enabled it to eventually embark on a successful economic course. It is very much to be hoped that the imminent restoration of democracy will not cause a setback in the development of the economy.

- I The flavor of the New Political Economy reseach is perhaps best conveyed by the voltunes of readings edited by Buchanan, Tollison and Tullock (1980), Collander (1984) and Stigler (1988). Analytical surveys of essential issues and results are provided by Bhagwati (1982), Srinivasan (1985) and Wellisz and Findlay (1988).

- 2 See her Introduction to Evans, Rueschmeyer and Skocpol, ag. (1985).

- 3 Discussions of the autonomy of the state from the Marxist perspective can be found in Miliband (1977) and Elster (1985), while Anderson (1974) is the most impessive appication of the Marxist approach in a specific historical context, the "absoludst" states of early modan Europe. A stimulating and original conceptu analysis of the stab is de Jasay (1985).

- 4 The subsequent dscussion draws on Badie and Birnbaum (1983) and Poggi (1978).

- 5 The model presented here is a significant extension over an earlier version contained in Fmdlay and Wilson (1987), since the tax rate is now endogeaous, with the labor supply an increasing function of the after-tax wage insteadof being perfectly inelastic. The model draws on the insights into the "productive" chart of the state contained in North (1981), chapter 3, on "A Neoclassical Theory of _the_ State" and into its "edatory" aspect by Brennan and Buchnan (1980). The prdoy nature of the state is also stressed in Lal (1985) and Ttily (1985). None of these authors however have attempted to embody their ideas in a formal general equilibrium model, even a very simple one such as is given here.

- 6 On modem Argentine economic history see the classic study of Diaz Alejandro (1970). A convenient summary of political developments in welation to the economic background is provided in chapter 3 of Skidmore and Smith (1984). The present effort at attempting to model this hisoWical experience is also indebted to Lal (1986).

- 7 See Myrdal (1968). For a brief but incisive evaluation of Indian economic performance and policy see also Bhagwati (1987).

- 8 For a penetrating summary of African experience with respect to marketing boards see Bauer (1987).

- 9 See the chapter on the Ivory Coast in Dunn, ed. (1978).

- 10 See O'Donnell (1979), Collier, ed. (1979) and Evans (1979) for analyses of thc role of the state in Latin American developmenL

- 11 See Findlay (1988) and references cited therein on the polidcal economy of exportoriented growth.

36
relating them to depreciation of physical capital (see equation (6)). Thus, any new investment, whether in infrastructure, health, or education, to the extent that it translates into an increase in the corresponding capital stock, will automatically generate an estimate of maintenance outlays. A legitimate question, therefore, is whether a PIP estimate of maintenance outlays is at all needed. However, it is important to keep in mind that the estimate produced by the SPAHD model can be viewed as corresponding strictly to the expenditure needed to avoid physical depreciation of public assets. Assuming that the (average) depreciation rates included in the SPAHD framework are accurate estimates, this would require setting θM = 1 in equation (6). The maintenance expenditure accounted for in the PIP could therefore be viewed as corresponding mostly to the other outlays associated with the delivery of maintenance activities, such as the cost of running a maintenance agency (excluding salaries and other compensation). In practice, these expenses could be very difficult to separate from the category “other spending on goods and services” identified in the PIP, so that some “double counting” may be inevitable.

# **3.  Link with a Medium-Term Budget**

It is apparent from the foregoing discussion that implementing the above methodology can produce a complete set of fiscal accounts, including a Medium term Budget Framework (MTBF) as long as PIP estimates are available for several years. This is important, given that several observers (including donors) have emphasized that elaborating more advanced Medium-term _expenditure_ frameworks is a key priority for strengthening the PRSP process (see, for instance, German Development Cooperation (2005)). The foregoing approach goes a step further by providing a complete medium-term budget, with simultaneous determination of aid requirements.

In summary, the methodology proposed in this paper for linking PIPs and SPAHD macro models can be summarized as follows: 11
Following Deaton and Zaidi (2002), we constructed the expenditure aggregate excluding debt repayments, remittances, and celebrations. After analyzing elasticities, we decided to include expenditures on health and education. The aggregate was then converted into monthly per capita terms using household size. To align with the approach to monitor absolute poverty in Turkey, we used per capita rather than adult equivalent ratios.

The expenditure data and all monetary values were deflated to be expressed in average 2017 YTL. The deflation accounts for price variations over time and across regions, constructing deflators by expenditure type using Turkish Statistical Institute’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

# _b) Food Consumption Score (FCS)_

The Food Consumption Score is an index of the diversity and frequency of foods consumed at the household level, calculated using the frequency of different food groups consumed by a household during the past seven days (WFP 2008). It is a standard indicator developed by the WFP, and used globally to measure food security and assess if households achieve acceptable or unacceptable food consumption. The score is a continuous variable with a possible range of 0 to 112, equal to the weighted sum of frequency of household consumption of each food group.

The food consumption groups include starches, pulses, vegetables, fruit, meat, dairy, fats, and sugar. In the survey, households are asked how many days each of the food groups were consumed within the past seven days. The formula for FCS, with the standard weights is:

# _FCS = (starches*2) + (pulses*3) + vegetables + fruit + (meat*4) + (dairy*4) + (fats*0.5) + (sugar*0.5)_

In the context of Turkey, households with a food consumption score greater than 42 were considered to have “acceptable” food consumption, those with FCS greater than 28 and smaller than or equal to 42 were considered to have “borderline” food consumption, and those with FCS of 28 and below were categorized in the “poor” food consumption group.

# _c) Reduced Consumption Coping Strategies Index (rCSI)_

The Reduced Consumption Coping Strategies Index is used to assess the level of stress faced by a household due to food shortage. It is measured by combining the frequency and severity of the different food consumption-based strategies households are engaging in, which are a subset of the Coping Strategies Index (CSI) that is comprised of a more detailed context specific list of food related coping strategies (Maxwell and Caldwell 2008). The rCSI includes coping strategies that are more universal across settings, has greater application in comparing across different contexts and correlates with other indicators of food security as well as the more detailed CSI index.

The rCSI is calculated using five standard strategies and a seven-day recall period. The five standard coping strategies (and their severity weightings) are: relying on less preferred, less expensive foods (1); borrowing food 11
Since economic developments in developed markets, which are the primary source of this type of finance, trigger big fluctuations in FDI flows to developing countries (Aleksynska and Havrylchyk, 2013), we include several global factors, including global risk, global liquidity, and global growth. Global risk is a volatility measure given by the VXO index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Global liquidity measures the availability of finance in global markets and is given by the sum of the change in the following two ratios – the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP and the ratio of domestic private sector credit to GDP (Beck et al., 2000).<sup>11</sup> The size of the financial market is expected to be positively related to the ability to mobilize capital. Global growth measures the real growth of the world economy and is obtained from the World Development Indicators. Regional contagion reflects the extent to which surges or stops occurred in the region of the country experiencing the surge. The indicator used to measure this factor is the share of countries in the same macro region which experienced a surge in the preceding year (see also Dell’Erba and Reinhardt, 2012).

The domestic set of factors include experiencing a surge in the preceding year, experiencing a stop in the preceding year (see also Sula, 2010),<sup>12</sup> per capita GDP, natural resource rents as a share of GDP, and the change in the following set of variables – trade and financial openness, economic and financial stability, and political stability. We expect M&A-led surges and stops to be more prevalent in higher income developing economies (Nocke and Yeaple, 2008; Qiu and Wang, 2011) because of the presence of attractive corporate assets in terms of quality of inputs and technology<sup>13</sup> and a narrower gap in

> 11 See Forbes and Warnock (2012) for a similar operationalization of this variable.

> 12 It can be expected that some surges concur with the recovery from a stop in FDI and some stops happen after a sudden surge in FDI.

> 13 Foreign firms typically ‘cherry pick’ high quality targets (Bertrand et al., 2012).

13
MRT. In a nutshell, implementing the procedure consists of replacing bilateral variables that account for theoretical bilateral trade costs in the specification and vary across exporter-importer pairs, namely: t _ij, Dis_ tan _ceij_ , _RTAij_ Border _ij_ , Common_Language _ij_ , Colonial_Relationship _ij_ , and Common_Colonizer _ij_ , for its MRT-corrected expressions.

In the case of a continuous variable, such as distance, the corresponding MRT-corrected term is: Similarly, the MRT-corrected expression for a dummy variable, such as Borderij, is: The MRT-corrected terms take into account the temporal variation of multilateral resistance terms as GDP shares evolve over time. As shown below, our estimates of the impact of trade facilitation variables on exports do not vary substantially when correcting for MRT.

# **_Data_**

The dataset covers 101 countries over the period 2004-07. Aggregate trade flows were compiled from the Commodity and Trade Database (COMTRADE), whereas tariffs were compiled from TRAINS. We use the average of applied tariff rates, from 2004 to 2007. To avoid a significant loss of observations, tariff data for some countries were linearly extrapolated for pairs of countries that had at least two of the four years under study.

Core gravity variables, such as bilateral distances, colonial ties, and common language dummies were obtained from the CEPII website. Other relevant variables, such as GDP and population, were available from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI).

17
- c) Prizes were used to try and increase the incentive to participate. Interview subjects were told that a random drawing would be done amongst completed interviews, with the winners receiving Video iPods.

- d) Finally, if subjects still refused to answer the questionnaire, interviewers would leave a much shorter version of the questionnaire to be completed by the household by themselves, and later picked up. This shorter questionnaire was the same as used in the Intercept point survey, taking 7 minutes on average. The intention with the shorter survey was to provide some data on households that would not answer the full survey due to time constraints, or to them being reluctant to have an interviewer in their house.

This strategy was very successful, yielding a further 45 full questionnaires and 111 short questionnaires. Table 3 summarizes the final results of this survey process. In total, we were able to survey 403 out of the 710 Nikkei households, a 57 percent interview rate. The refusal rate was 25 percent, whilst the remaining households were either absent on three attempts, or were not surveyed due to building managers refusing permission to enter the apartment buildings. Refusal rates were higher in São Paulo than in Parana, reflecting greater concerns about crime and a busier urban environment.

**Table 3: Final Survey Results of the Stratified Random Sample**

||Number<br>Sao P|%<br>aulo|Number<br>Paran|%<br>a|Number<br>Combined|%<br>Sample|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_Dwellings Screened_|14239||8300||22539||
|_Nikkei households identified_|450||260||710||
|Interviewed|204|45|199|77|403|57|
|Refusals|145|32|30|12|175|25|
|Not allowed to enter building|31|7|5|2|36|5|
|Absent duringat least 3 visits|70|16|26|10|96|14|

Table 4 compares the characteristics of households which were surveyed in the first round of survey efforts with households surveyed in the second round of survey efforts who had initially refused or who were not able to be contacted during three attempts in the first round of the survey. The group of households surveyed in the second round is similar in many respects to those surveyed in the first round. The main difference lies in 19

-  -
which a bank had a significant stake, hau a significant stake in any other of the largest 100 firms so that the influence of banks in terms of ownership is truly confined to the corporations listed. Immenga [25,p.33] showed that in 1975 there were eight cases where next to the bank there was another bank or another company from the top 100 listed as a major shareholder, reducing the potential power of one single bank as a shareholder. This is even more pronounced today, where no single bank has a majority stake in one of the top 100 firms.

One does have to note, however, that most individual stakes in the listed companies with bank ownership are held by the three largest German banks, showing that there is a concentration of ownership in the hands of tk largest three banks. Instead of the statement that "German banks own German industry", we would suggest here that a more appropriate statement is "the three largest German banks held significant shares in 13 of the largest 100 firms".

Table 1: Number of equity holdings of 10 largest private banks in non-banks

|Mham-<br>size|1976|1m|
|---|---|---|
|1. All firms|129|86|
|10% -_25%_<br>|43<br>|41<br>|
|25% - _50%_<br>|67<br>|37<br>|
|greater 50%|19|8|
|2. Publicly listed<br>|||
|firms|77|51|
|10% - 25%<br>|17<br>|20<br>|
|25% -_50%_<br>|49<br>|28<br>|
|greater 50%|11|3|

source: Herrhausen (221 Also when we consider the holdings of equity including the next smaller group of firms, the issue of bank ownership is not as pervasive as is commonly assumed. Table 1 from Herrhausen [22] was compiled by the Federal Association of German Banks in response to the sixth report of the Monopolkommission, and includes the holdings of the ten largest private commercial banks, i.e. excluding sa,ings institutions or cooperative banks.

The 10 banks included in the survey also reported their reasons for 18 new acquisitions of shares in the 10 year period. In six of the cases the banks reported that the motivation was simply a portfolio investment. All of these investments were in the range of 10
# Foreign Direct Investment, Other Capital Flows and Current Account Deficits: What Causes What?

MAXWELL J. FRY, STIJN A. CLAESSENS, PETER BURRIDGE, AND MARIE-CHRISTINE BLANCHET* _University of Birmingham, World Bank, University of Birmingham, University of Birmingham_ _JEL_ Classifications: F21, F32, 05. Key words: foreign direct investment, current account deficits.

'This paper was written for the International Economics Department of the World Bank under the World Bank's Research Support Budget RPO-678-15. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank, its Board of Directors, its management, or any of its member countries. _EViews,_ version 1.0, and _MicroTSP,_ version 7.0, were used for all the regressions presented in this paper.
| ine and identically dis buted across inditericall i can be recovered using deconv_ ution. The supplemental appe x ac 2011) provides more detailed in ructions on how to use Kotlarski’s Theorem to identi

Estimation Methods This section presents two approaches to identifying and estimating features of the distribution of treatment effects. In Subsection 4.4.1, we extend our discussion about estimating the variance of treatment effects to higher order moments of the distribution. This first approach relaxes some of the assumptions required to estimate the full distribution of treatment effects. It is therefore preferable for questions that can be answered by moments of the distribution of eatment effects. For example, what is the variance of treatment effects? In Subsection 4.4.2 we show how to use deconvolution to estimate _e enti e distribution of , when our model sufficiently captures the vation n the untreated ent. All of the poli y questions raised at the beginning of this secti n can e answered by computing features of thi distribution. Moreover, it is simple to calc late th variance of the estimated distribution to sess the variability of treatment effects or the fraction of individ. We present simulation results to illustrate these two methods in Subsection 4.4.3. We continue to use o r basic model from the previous section to keep the discussion simple. However, caution is warranted when applying the methods in practice, as the required conditional independence assumption is strong. This assumption likely requires a richer underlying model and may thereby limit how useful these methods are in practice. Subsection 4.4.4 presents additional details of these methods in a specific panel data context where the conditional independence assumption may be plausible.

As the example of the variance shows, moments of the distribution of treatment effects are identified under weaker conditions and often provide sufficient information to answer policy questions. The first two moments of a distribution imply its variance and the first three moments imply its skewness. Skewness is informative about how lopsided the distribution is. For example, a high and negative skewness indicates that there is an important number of with treatment effects far below the mean impact. With many vaccines and medications,

-th moment of the distribution of treatment effects is defined as E(A )
# **Global Job Quality: Evidence from Wage Employment across Developing Countries**<sup>1</sup>

**Shoghik Hovhannisyan**<sup>2</sup> **Veronica Montalva-Talledo**<sup>3</sup>

**Tyler Remick**<sup>4</sup>

**Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán**<sup>5</sup>

**Kersten Stamm**<sup>6</sup>

**Keywords:** Job quality, working conditions, wage employment, private sector, global **JEL:** J30, J81, I31, O10, O15

1 The team would like to thank Susana Gable, Hans Peter Lankes, Luis F. López-Calva, Graciela Márquez, Joshua D. Merfeld, Christian Meyer, Camilo Mondragon, Ambar Narayan, Jan Olivier Imhof, Theresa Osborne, Carolina Sanchez-Paramo, Elina Scheja, Michael Weber, as well as the participants of the International Finance Corporation seminar, the joint World Bank–International Finance Corporation launch event, the World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice Summer University, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Seminar, the International Labour Organization WED Talks seminar and the IZA Labor Statistics workshop on “Measurement of Incomes, Living Costs and Standards of Living” for their valuable comments and feedback. This study received funding from the Sustainable Development Goals Trust Fund on Knowledge Support to Welfare Analysis of Private Sector Interventions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of International Finance Corporation/World Bank Group, or International Finance Corporation/ World Bank Group management. 2 International Finance Corporation, shovhannisyan@ifc.org 3 World Bank, vmontalvatalledo@worldbank.org 4 The George Washington University, tyler_remick@email.gwu.edu 5 World Bank and IZA, crodriguezc@worldbank.org 6 World Bank, kstamm@worldbank.org