# **1. INTRODUCTION AND OUTLINE**

1. The publication in 2006 of the Stern Review on the economics of climate change has marked a watershed in attracting widespread public attention on the effects of climate change (CC) and global warming on the world economy. As the study highlights, an overwhelming body of scientific evidence indicates that climate change resulting from increased accumulation of greenhouse gases is a serious and urgent issue. Over the next 2-3 decades, global mean temperatures may rise between 2-5 degrees Celsius, exacerbating existing patterns of water shortages and excesses and increasing the risk of drought and floods. Climate change impacts will be felt differentially across regions and localities: while some parts of the world may even benefit from modest rises in temperature, most countries are expected to suffer heavily, and some of the world’s poorest countries are likely to be disproportionately affected by the adverse impact on global economic growth.

2. Tajikistan is a small landlocked country in the heart of Central Asia, bordered by Afghanistan, China, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. Roughly one-tenth of its 7 million total population lives in Dushanbe, the capital city. The country is blessed with abundant water resources, contributing to its specialization in cotton production. Tajikistan also has huge hydropower generation potential— abundant and inexpensive electricity has led to its other main specialization, aluminum production, contributing about one-half of exports. However, unlike other richer Central Asian countries (e.g. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan), Tajikistan has negligible oil, gas, and other such natural resources. Only 7 percent of its total land area of 143,000 square kilometers is arable. High mountain ranges across its territory make communication between different parts of the country difficult, especially in winter. Tajikistan is highly susceptible to natural disasters, and is regularly affected by floods, landslides, earthquakes, and droughts. Up to 40 percent of the country’s national workforce is employed abroad (mostly in Russia) and sends home remittances equal to more than one-third of its gross domestic product.

3. The above factors combine to make Tajikistan one of the poorest and most vulnerable economies in the world.<sup>1</sup> Given its unique combination of geography, topography, climate, and low income, it is also especially prone to the adverse impacts of global climate change. How well informed are households in Tajikistan about the different causes and consequences of climate change? How concerned are they about its various potential impacts, and how do these concerns compare with other development challenges the country currently faces? What are some of the main transmission channels through which households could be impacted? Which potential impacts, if realized, would be of greatest public concern? Is there evidence of some of these changes already taking place? Using data from a nationally representative household survey carried out in Tajikistan recently, this paper examines some salient aspects of public perceptions of climate change in the country to help address these and other such important questions of policy interest.

4. The Pilot Program on Climate Resilience has recently been launched in Tajikistan with donor support, which will provide the Government of Tajikistan with USD50 million in grant financing to strengthen institutional capacities for climate resilience and to fund investment projects. There is also interest among other donors and national counterparts in integrating a climate change perspective in their operations. Do the survey findings have any bearings on how Tajikistan should adapt to ongoing and future climate change, in particular given the many pressing development challenges it

> 1 Tajikistan's GDP per capita is $751 (current US$, 2008 estimate) / $PPP 1,906 (current international $, 2008 estimate). In 2004, more than one-half (51 percent) the country’s population was estimated to subsist below the $PPP 2 per capita per day international poverty line. _Source:_ World Bank’s World Development Indicators, September 2009 edition.

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