statistical analysis therefore pools all country information and focuses on the probability of a country being in one of the three states of MDG performance.

We employ the multinomial logit estimation method because it is well suited to examine the likelihood that countries fall into one of the three country groups explained above, given changes in economic growth and the policy framework. This method is typically employed to model individual discrete choices, such as the occupational choice of households in micro-simulations or demand for modes of transportation. In the annex, we discuss statistical issues relating to the estimation method, the dependent variable, the independence of irrelevant alternatives, and endogeneity and reverse causality.

**_Both development drivers count, but growth has an all-encompassing bearing on progress toward the MDGs._** A closer look at estimation results (tables 6 and 7) reveals that economic growth has a pervasively significant and positive impact on the odds of achieving all MDGs under consideration, apart from gender parity in primary education. The quality of policy and institutions also has a positive and statistically significant relation with MDGs for hunger reduction, gender parity, and child and maternal health.

**Table 6. Multinomial logit estimates: baseline representation**

||**MDG**<br>**(1**|**.1a**<br>**)**|**MDG**<br>**(2**|**.1c**<br>**)**|**MDG**<br>**(3**|**.2a**<br>**)**|**MDG.3a (**<br>**(4**|**primary)**<br>**)**|**MDG.3a**<br>**(5**|**(second)**<br>**)**|**MDG**<br>**(6**|**.4a**<br>**)**|**(7**<br>**MDG**|**)**<br>**.5a**|**MDG.7a**<br>**(8**|**(water)**<br>**)**|**MDG.7**<br>**(**|**a (sanit)**<br>**9)**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|**Above**<br>**average**|**On**<br>**Target**|
|**Annual growth in GDP pc**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|**coef/se**|
|**(average for 1990-2009),**<br>**2005IdPPP**|0.262|0.359***|0.335***|0.427**|0.766***|1.304***|0.627|0.470|0.922*|1.411**|0.240*|0.518**|0.187*|0.546|0.105|0.253***|0.260|0.383***|
||0.217|0.131|0.051|0.177|0.187|0.197|0.440|0.340|0.513|0.558|0.132|0.211|0.101|0.397|0.120|0.038|0.187|0.129|
|**CPIA 2009**|0.609|0.211|1.071***|2.784***|-0.158|0.128|0.725|0.925***|-1.007|-0.745|1.119**|1.670***|0.864***|1.382***|-2.033**|-1.203|0.690|0.409|
||0.892|1.525|0.398|0.330|0.258|0.732|0.524|0.351|0.664|1.437|0.553|0.579|0.173|0.367|1.005|0.990|0.591|0.368|
|**GDP per capita 1990,**<br>**2005IdPPP**|-0.010|0.041*|0.001|0.002|0.079**|0.087**|0.008|0.005|0.146**|0.141**|-0.005|-0.001|-0.025**|0.002|0.051***|0.046***|-0.005|-0.012|
||0.059|0.023|0.014|0.012|0.034|0.039|0.013|0.016|0.071|0.069|0.005|0.010|0.012|0.008|0.014|0.010|0.006|0.016|
|**CPIA 1996**|0.906|0.740|0.585|0.294|0.726|-0.511|-0.601*|0.363**|1.295*|2.209***|-0.801**|0.047|0.183|-0.360|1.652***|1.927**|0.103|-0.355|
||1.020|1.404|0.741|0.341|0.549|0.958|0.321|0.153|0.673|0.629|0.400|0.412|0.126|0.231|0.582|0.760|0.278|0.457|
|**Extreme poverty c.1990**|0.097***<br>0.015|0.079***<br>0.017|||||||||||||||||
|**Hunger c.1990**|||-0.004<br>0.036|-0.040<br>0.049|||||||||||||||
|**Primary education**<br>**completion c.1990**|||||0.167***|0.221***|||||||||||||
||||||0.027|0.029|||||||||||||
|**Gender parity in primary**<br>**education c.1990**|||||||0.062**|0.054*|||||||||||
||||||||0.026|0.031|||||||||||
|**Gender parity in secondary**<br>**education c.1990**|||||||||0.089***|0.127***|||||||||
||||||||||0.007|0.014|||||||||
|**Child mortality under five**<br>**c.1990**|||||||||||-0.006|-0.005|||||||
||||||||||||0.005|0.006|||||||
|**Maternal mortality c.1990**|||||||||||||-0.000<br>0.001|-0.004<br>0.003|||||
|**Access to safe drinking**<br>**water c.1990**|||||||||||||||0.077***|0.041***|||
||||||||||||||||0.011|0.015|||
|**Access to sanitation c.1990**|||||||||||||||||0.003|-0.033|
||||||||||||||||||0017|0022|
|**_cons**|-7.751**|-5.864***|-5.259**|-9.741***|-9.462***|-11.842***|-5.422***|-6.887***|-7.736***|-14.483***|-0.988|-7.021**|-3.069***|-4.741**|-1.408|-3.540*|.<br>-3.612|.<br>0.266|
||3.479|0.897|2.281|2.609|2.271|3.435|1.896|2.277|1.148|3.278|2.204|2.794|0.507|2.101|2.251|2.085|2.263|2.259|
|**Number of observations**|7|7|4|9|9|0|10|5|9|5|11|4|10|4|10|6|1|07|
|h’<br>**Adjusted R2**|ll<br>0.2|i<br>93|<br>0.1|85|0.5|15|0.1|61|0.4|15|0.1|46|0.2|11|0.1|92|0.|123|

_Source:_ Authors’ calculations. _Notes:_ *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Robust estimates with regional clusters.

17