Honduras the proportions are 6, 5, 4, and 2 percent, respectively. However, it is possible that this reason is correlated with economic factors, since access to education services can be associated with the economic capacity of individuals and households for financing transport costs to where the service is provided.

The declared reasons for dropping out also differ by gender. For males, economic reasons are most often cited, while females are more likely to cite personal reasons, including having to perform household tasks (see Figure 14). In most countries, a larger share of males declare lack of interest as the main cause for having left school, although this category is highly relevant for females as well. In order to go beyond these individual perceptions, the following sections examine empirical correlations and causal evidence on dropouts, utilizing the structure of the conceptual framework presented above.

# **3.1 Empirical correlations: Personal and household characteristics**

Rigorous assessment of the causal relationships suggested by the conceptual framework requires data that is unfortunately not readily available in Central America. In particular, long-term and detailed longitudinal data that follows individuals from early life through at least adolescence would allow researchers to link early indicators, such as primary learning outcomes, to eventual dropout. This type of data has not been collected. However, several natural experiments, caused by weather shocks in particular, have been exploited in Central America, the broader Latin America region, and globally – insights gained from these will be mentioned below. In Section 4, evidence from randomized evaluations of interventions aimed particularly at reducing dropout will be discussed.

Given the limited causal evidence, we focus in this section on verifying the existence and magnitude of correlations between dropout and the factors identified by the conceptual framework. In particular, we estimate the marginal effect of variables captured in household surveys on the probability of being enrolled in school in each country for youth ages 15 to 17.<sup>16</sup> We estimate a probit regression for each country using the latest household survey available, first focusing on individual (X), household (H), and community (Z) characteristics:

## ��������� ������� ����� ����� ��� (1)

Figure 15 plots the values of the marginal effects of gender and belonging to an indigenous group on the probability of attending, while controlling for all variables included in the specification, and confirms that in general, being female is positively correlated with being enrolled at secondary ages.<sup>17</sup> In El Salvador and Guatemala, however, the opposite is the case. This result is consistent with evaluation results from conditional cash transfer programs that have found that the gender gap in school enrollment has virtually disappeared in Latin America (Fiszbein, et.al. 2009).

Belonging to an indigenous group is in all cases negatively correlated with enrollment, with significant and sizeable effects in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama, with marginal

> 16 This is an approximation for dropout, as a small share of the youth who are not enrolled were never enrolled, and another small share may return to the schooling system in the future.

> 17 The (*) in this and the following figures denotes that the marginal effect is statistically significant at the 90 per cent level or above. Table A.3 presents the regression coefficients and standard errors depicted in Figures 15 through 17.

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