countries, children from disadvantaged backgrounds were less likely to benefit from remote learning. Recent analysis by <u>Moscoviz and Evans (2022) suggests that learning losses are concentrated primarily among</u> children from poorer households, as documented in the Netherlands, Italy, United States, Mexico, Bangladesh, and Ghana.

Our results show that the Learning Poverty Gap is likely to rise. Countries experiencing an increasing Learning Poverty Gap will need to direct more resources and efforts toward children at the bottom, for example through facilitating structured pedagogy so that teachers can be more effective in closing learning gaps. The simulation results also suggest that Learning Poverty Severity is also likely to increase. Countries experiencing worsening Learning Poverty Severity will need to focus on reducing learning inequality among children at the bottom through tailored and targeted instruction, for example by adopting “teaching at the <u>right level” techniques.</u>

## Address Learning Data Gaps

Finally, to tackle the learning crisis, countries must address crucial learning data gaps by assessing student learning levels. While good learning data has been used to document learning losses in certain countries, grades, and households, many countries lack such data and are therefore flying blind. Policy makers and teachers require granular, timely, and comparable data to implement policies and actions that can help improve learning outcomes. Measuring learning losses through frequent, reliable data is an essential first step in mitigating losses. Such data is vital for the effective implementation of evidence-based strategies, such as targeted instruction, that allow teaching to be aligned with student needs.

## Prioritize Education Financing

Ensuring a safe return to school and facilitating learning recovery will require not only political commitment, but also financial support from governments, given that the vast majority of education comes from domestic government budgets (Hares and Rossiter 2021). The pandemic caused the economies of many countries to reverse a steady upward trend in public spending in education. Forty percent of low- and lower-middleincome countries reduced their education spending in 2020, after the onset of the pandemic, with an average decline of 13.5 percent. Education spending rebounded slightly in 2021 but fell again in 2022, to below 2019 levels (Education Finance Watch 2022). Similarly, the simulation results suggest that without robust action, one of the long-term impacts of school closures will be large economic losses in terms of lifetime earnings. To prevent these losses, education systems need to receive adequate support and financing, so that they can ensure that children are able to recover lost learning.

# **Conclusion**

Simulation results suggest the children’s learning levels are likely to fall substantially because of extended school closures. The share of children in Learning Poverty in low- and middle-income countries could increase by 13 percentage points, Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling could fall by 1.1 years, and the share of youth below minimum proficiency in PISA could rise by 12.3 percentage points. School shutdowns could generate lifetime earning losses of $21 trillion.

Drastic measures are needed to recover and accelerate learning. Recovering lost learning will require reimagining education systems in several important ways. One, as children return to in-person schooling, it is important that education systems use evidence-based strategies to facilitate learning recovery of children. It is particularly important to accelerate the acquisition of foundational skills, such as literacy and numeracy, that children may not have acquired in early grades prior to the pandemic, as later learning outcomes depend on children acquiring these basic skills. To that end, it is critical to address the learning data crisis, and measure the learning levels of children and learning losses experienced. Two, it is important to prioritize financing for education to ensure the availability of resources required for children’s learning recovery and acceleration. It 22