INTRODUCTION XXi

# _Geographic Regions and Income Groups_

Population, population growth, and vital rates for subcontinental geographic regions and for groups of countries at different income levels are shown in Tables 9-12. (These and all succeeding tables appear at the end of this introduction.) The classification by region distinguishes East, West, and North Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean from Northern America; and East and Southeast, South, and Southwest Asia (see Table 17 for the countries in each region). East and Southeast Asia, which includes China, and South Asia, which includes India, are far larger than the other regions, which each contain 100 to 400 miion people. The high growth rates for Africa as a whole apply especially to Fast and West Africa, which are growing at 3.1 percent a year and should have six times as mar.y people when their populations become stationary. Southwest Asia and North Africa come next, with total fertility rates above **_5_** and high growth rates of 2.6-2.8 percent The dassification by income (Exhibit 1) shows that 52 of the 187 countries or economies have low per capita incomes of $480 or less (in 1987 U.S. dollars). Most of these countries or economies are in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia; they also include the majority of the ten largest countries in the world and contain 56 percent of world population. At the other extreme, high-income countries or economies, with per capita incomes of S6,000 or more, number 38, and contain 16 percent of world population. At present, the lowincome populations as a group are growing by almost 60 million a year, while the high-income populations as a group are growing by only 4 million a year. By 2025, the currently low-income countries will make up 61 percent of world population, and the currently high-income countries will make up 11 percent.

The lower-middle-income countries, with per capita incomes up to $2,000, are as numerous as the low-income countries but have only 12 percent of world population. In this group are half of the Latin American and Caribbean countries and a variety of countries from every other region except South Asia. Population growth in these countries is actually faster at present than in low-income countries; total fertility is slightly higher (because fertility i,i low-income China is so low), and mortality is lower. The 35 upper-middle-income countries, on the other hand, with 9 percent of world population, have lower fertility and are mostly on the way to slower population growth. Nevertheless, even this group of countries will still grow considerably. Their stationary populations in the aggregate are expected to be more than double their present populations.

# _World Bank Regions_

The World Bank divides borrower countries, which account for three-fourths of world population, into four regions: Africa, essentially Sub-Saharan; Asia, excluding Southwest Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, but including the Pacific; Europe, the Middle East (up to Pakistan), and North Africa (EMN); and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Within regions, countries are grouped into four to six country departments, most of which include more than one country (Exhibit 2). We consider the regional populations and their growth, and then the populations covered by departments, which prove to be substantially homogeneous within regions.

The division into regions puts about half the world population in the Asia region and 8 to 10 percent of the population in each of the other regions. If China and India were excluded, the remainder of the region, at 12 percent of world population, would be more comparable in size to the other regions.