methodological differences in studies looking at child marriage (Neal, Stone, & Ingham, 2016), but may also point to true variations in the relationship between these two phenomena. Specific country contexts as well as specific aspects of conflicts and their economic, social, and demographic consequences may generate diverse impacts on child marriage.

Studies of the impact of conflict on education have likewise found heterogenous effects, ranging from conflict reducing education to increasing education, in country- and gender-specific ways (Buvinic, Das Gupta, & Shemyakina, 2014; Liu, Modrek, & Sieverding, 2019; Pivovarova & Swee, 2015; Saad & Fallah, 2020; Singh & Shemyakina, 2016; Valente, 2014). In some cases, conflict may shift gender roles. Women may become heads of household, displacement may disrupt social norms, and women and girls may face shifting access to employment and education (Admasu et al., 2021). The long-term economic devastation wrought by conflict and shifting social norms or demographic change may serve as drivers or deterrents for child marriage (de Walque, 2006; Heuveline & Poch, 2007; Khawaja, Assaf, & Jarallah, 2009; Saxena, Kulczycki, & Jurdi, 2004).

# **_6.3 Policy implications_**

These results point to a number of opportunities for intervention to reduce child marriage. Child marriage is a complex problem that requires change at the national, community, family, and individual level to fully address. At the national level, ministries of health and gender should monitor trends in child marriage to be aware of whether and how this form of abuse changes as a result of instability. In countries where child marriage is relatively high, there should be a clear national strategy to address this problem, including among the most vulnerable populations such as IDPs and refugees. Child marriage should be acknowledged as a potential consequence of conflict and, in contexts where this is a concern, post-conflict reconstruction plans should aim to address this form of GBV.

# **_6.4 Strengths and limitations_**

This study is among the first quantitative multi-country studies using population-based data to examine the impact of conflict (both contemporaneous and lagged effects) on girl child marriage. This paper draws upon two robust data sources – DHS and UCDP – to examine this relationship, and to strengthen the literature on how conflict may impact child marriage across the globe.

While this study has a number of strengths, it also has some notable limitations. Firstly, DHS data did not allow us to add a number of covariates to the models which might have been informative. Few questions in the DHS asked about the respondent’s experiences before getting married, making it difficult to include variables about individual risk factors prior to marriage. Age at marriage is also a recalled question and is subject to measurement error (Neal & Hosegood, 2015). Individuals may also have moved (and particularly done so in relation to conflict) but the DHS does not include a full residential history to account for this.

Although we do control for time and geographic fixed effects, identifying the relationship between conflict and child marriage based on local variation in the timing of conflict in conflictaffected areas, our results are primarily associations, as we lack a strong causal identification strategy. Local time-varying omitted variables may thus bias estimates, driving both conflict and early marriage, but detailed time-varying data on local conditions are not available to overcome this challenge.

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