rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
future investments. Thus, Duflo et al. (2011) find that providing farmers with input price subsidies during harvest times can help overcome this problem. They show that providing time‐limited subsidies to fertilizer just after harvest, when farmers have money, can result in sizeable changes in fertilizer use in Western Kenya. This implies that farmers may require market incentives to overcome behavioral limitations such as present bias.

Overall, the economic literature provides several key lessons in terms of what factors affect technology adoption among smallholder farmers. First, the technology should be easily available and of reasonable quality for the farmer to even try it. Low output price fluctuation and well‐functioning credit and insurance markets are also factors that promote input adoption. Similarly, the availability of information, through extension services and training often results in increased adoption, particularly if paired with social networks. Social networks and ICTs can leverage the knowledge imparted by extension programs alone, and help to increase their impact. For technologies that have been in use, such as fertilizer and improved seeds, opportune subsidies for inputs that encourage purchases when farmers are least cash constrained can also jump‐start adoption. With positive net returns, farmers are more likely to purchase the inputs in subsequent years.

# _4.2 What do we know about farmers who adopt inputs in Uganda?_

In this section, we make use of five rounds of the Uganda National Panel Survey 2005/06‐2013/14 to examine whether some of the relevant factors identified in the literature are associated with input use in Uganda. More specifically, we look at the degree to which access to markets, past weather conditions and prices affect input use. We also assess how usage rates correlate with information and training, credit access and certain plot characteristics. We are unable to consider the role of behavioral factors, due to a lack of good measure of these in the panel data survey. In addition to inorganic fertilizer and hybrid seeds (for which we analyzed the financial returns in Section 4), we consider the use of pesticide, also critical in increasing overall agricultural productivity.

First, improved access to economic markets should enable input use by farmers. Better access to economic markets should facilitate the availability of agricultural inputs for farmers, and should also be an incentive their use as it facilitates the commercialization of the final output by lowering transportation costs. Following a common approach in the literature (see Blankespoor et al. 2016), for every household in each year of the panel, we use a domestic market access index that is a function of the weighted sum of the population of cities with a population larger than 100,000 inhabitants, where the weight decreases with transport time.<sup>16</sup> More specifically, the definition of market access in a household location _i_ at time _t_ ( MA�,� ) is the following:

> 16 We thank Brian Blankespoor for the support in estimating the market access index.

22
growth in this relative sense, and so is the distribution adjustment factor reported in table 3.4. According to this view, the 1997 financial crisis was pro-poor in Indonesia despite the observed increase in poverty. Similarly, the relative view would lead us to conclude that growth was not pro-poor in 1993-1996 and 199-2002 despite the note decline in poverty.

Table 3.5.Equally Distributed Equivalent Growth Rates

|Focal Parameter|1993-1996|1996-1999|1999-2002|
|---|---|---|---|
|1|5.92|-7.12|6.06|
|2|5.16|-5.93|5.44|
|3|5.02|-5.53|5.26|
|4|4.98|-5.34|5.20|
|5|4.96|-5.24|5.18|
|6|4.96|-5.19|5.17|

Source: Computed To answer the question of what the poverty outcomes would be under distributional neutrality, we compute the _Shapley contributions_ of growth and inequality to change in poverty. The Shapley decomposition is based on the microeconomic approach to distributive justice where the key issue is a fair assessment of the productive contributions of partners in a joint venture (Moulin 2003). Essentially, the Shapley value of a participant is the solution to a cooperative game. The following definition of the Shapley value is given by Young (1994: 92), in the case of a cost-sharing problem.

“Given a cost-sharing game on a fixed set of players, let the players join the cooperative enterprise one at a time in some predetermined order. As each player joins, the number of players to be served increases. The player’s _cost contribution_ is his net addition to cost when he joins, that is, the incremental cost of adding him to the group of players who have already joined. The Shapley value of a player is his average cost contribution over all possible orderings of the players.” 24
# **1 Clustering PTAs based on their content**

The analysis in this paper is based on a new database on the detailed content of deep trade integration -i.e. the depth of commitments that countries take in PTAs (Mattoo et al. 2020).<sup>1</sup> In particular, this database provides information on the content of 18 policy areas most frequently covered in PTAs (Figure 1). The list of policy areas mapped includes border measures such as anti-dumping duties or export taxes, and behind the border measures such as technical barriers to trade, competition policy and environmental law, among others.

Figure 1: Classifications of PTAs by objective of policy area <!-- Start of picture text --> Tariff PreferencesAnti-dumping and CDCompetition PolicyEnvironmental LawsTrade Facilitation and CustomsSanitary and Phytosanitary MeasuresSubsidiesRules of OriginTechnical Barriers to TradeState-Owned EnterprisesExport TaxesPublic ProcurementMovement of CapitalLabor Market RegulationsIntellectual Property RightsServicesInvestmentVisa and Asylum<br>283<br>200<br>150<br>100<br>Number of Agreements<br>50<br>0<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Deep Integration Handbook, (Mattoo et al. 2020) The analysis focuses on a sample of 278 trade agreements that have been signed between 1980 and 2018 and that are currently in force and notified to the WTO. For each agreement and policy area, the database provides a series of questions covering aspects such as stated objectives and substantive commitments, as well as aspects relating to transparency, procedures and enforcement. The number of provisions coded (906 in total) varies by policy area, reflecting differences in terms of coverage and complexity across policy areas that are negotiated in the agreements (Table 1). The share of provisions included in each policy area across agreements ranges between 7 percent on average for anti-dumping to more than 30 percent on average for policy areas such as competition policy or services. More than one-half of the agreements considered for this analysis cover 50 percent or more

> 1The methodology and data are available in this link `https://datatopics.worldbank.org/dta/index.html`

5
<!-- Start of picture text --> Land use at state level<br>100% — —— ——_ 1<br>P| a ——<br>75%<br>50%<br>25%<br>0%<br>ssewe FSNe)g PKS- xoLf wvs* SFRSSF FS¥ ¥$ weSCF SFx SsRS)LS Sseeec *&<br>= Stable natural vegetation =Nonstable natural vegetation © Rain-fed Irrigation Water sBare soil<br><!-- End of picture text -->
# **C. SIMULATIONS**

A series of simulations were conducted in order to assess the sensitivity of the calculated real effective exchange rate to changes in price indices of some trading partners and changes in trade weights including more informal trade. The objective **CHART 10: REER MOVEMENT IN UEMOA (INCLUDING** was to get precise empirical **INFORMAL TRADE): 1999-2004** measures of the elasticity of 110 the REER in both zones to 105 both price and trade shares. Since the wholesale price 100 indicator (WPI) is considered 95 a more comprehensive measure of inflation in an 90 economy than the CPI, the 85 WPI’s were included for the trading partners for which there is a consistent and accurate long-run series. The REER REERINF results of the experiment suggested that a change in price index has no major effect on the REER. Because of the global deflation due to overcapacity, the use of alternative price indices does not have any significant effect on the REER.

In a second set of simulations, the trade weights assigned to the trading partners were adjusted to account for informal trade between many of Francophone countries and Nigeria and Ghana. Unfortunately, such trade escapes both the customs regime and official cross-border statistics. Accordingly, for the REER in the UEMOA zone, the trade weights of Ghana were increased from 4.5 to 5.0 percent and the weights of Nigeria increased from 7.3 to 11 percent, and all other weights of trading partners were adjusted accordingly so the combined total of country weights still equaled 1 percent. In the CEMAC zone, the weights for Nigeria were increased from 7.3 percent to 9 percent to account for the large volume of unrecorded Cameroon-Nigeria crossborder trade of livestock, machinery, and oil. The effects of these revisions was to

**CHART 11: REER MOVEMENT IN CEMAC (USING INFORMAL TRADE): 1999-2004**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 110<br>105<br>100<br>95<br>90<br>85<br>80<br>REER REERINF<br><!-- End of picture text --> reduce the REER misalignment in UEMOA from 8 percent to 6 percent and the CEMAC misalignment from 7 percent to 6 percent. The decrease in REER after the inclusion of informal trade is due to higher inflation in Nigeria (13.8 percent in 2004) and Ghana (13.0 percent in 2004) vis a vis the CEMAC and UEMOA countries.

14
III) roads that serve small towns and rural areas were largely delayed until 2006 (World Bank 2005; World Bank 2006b.) Even though the quality of large portions of the physical transportation infrastructure declined during the study period, several important policy changes did occur between 1997 and 2001 that likely facilitated spatial markets generally. These included an acceleration privatization of transport firms and the development of licensing program that addressed uncertainty over safety.<sup>13</sup>

# <u>Policy evaluations</u>

Some germane characteristics of the Bulgarian reform process are captured by the measures given in table 1. The first rows of the table report transition indicators constructed by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD, 2007), while the later rows provide some related indicators of economic performance. The time periods reported correspond to the surveys used in our analysis.

The transition indicators are evaluations of milestones of market reform and range from 1 to 4.33. The privatization scores are average based on the pace of the privatization of small and large enterprises. A score of 2 indicates the development of privatization plans and the beginnings of some sales; a score of 3 indicates that 25 percent of large enterprise assets are sold or ready for sale and that a comprehensive sale of small enterprises in underway. The finance indicator is an average of banking, securities and related reforms. A score of 2 indicates a liberalization of interest rates, the start-up of securities exchanges and rudimentary legal reform. A score of 3 would indicate full interest rate liberalization, significant lending to the private sector, progress on bank regulatory oversight, the emergence of non-bank financial services and an active and regulated securities market. The infrastructure measure is based on reforms covering electric power, railways, roads, telecommunications, water and waste water services. A score of 2 indicates weak commercial objectives and political interference in setting tariffs; some decentralization of decision making. Market reforms are based on progress toward the removal of non-tariff trade restrictions, the elimination of price controls outside of housing transport and natural monopolies, with a score of 4.33 consistent with European Union standards. A competition score of 2 indicates the startup of competition policy legislation and some reduction of entry restrictions; some actions are taken to limit the market power of dominant firms.

> 13 As elsewhere in the Bulgarian economy, privatization efforts stalled early in the reform process. In 1997, 233 state-owned enterprises provided freight and passenger service. However, by 1999, all but 23 had been privatized and by 2001 private businesses handled 90% of international freight haulage. Moreover, a series of laws beginning in 1997 introduced EU safety standards, along with inspections and licensing. This reduced uncertainty over the safety of Bulgarian transport companies in the domestic market and, importantly, the international market.

5
# **4 Computational details**

## **4.1 Truncated Gauss-Hermite approximation**

In our formulation of the RCB, we use a truncated normal distribution, as negative values of the RCB make our optimization problem infeasible. Geophysical modeling suggests that the RCB distribution is approximately normal, justifying our approach (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021; Dvorak et al., 2022).

To approximate this distribution, we use Gauss-Hermite quadrature nodes (Cai and Judd, 2010) transformed to a truncated normal distribution following the approach of Cai and Judd (2015). We do so using the following prescription. For a random variable _x ∼N_ ( ̄ _x, σx_ ), we can generate a random draw _x_<sup>_∗_</sup> using where _θ ∼N_ (0 _,_ 1). Therefore, formulating the Gauss-Hermite quadrature approximation for a truncated normal distribution, _x_ , equates to formulating the Gauss-Hermite quadrature approximation for _θ_ .

Therefore, consider the random variable _θ_ . We can transform _θ_ to a bounded random variable using the sigmoid function where _κ,_ Υ _∈_ R<sup>+</sup> . One can immediately see that Ψ has zero mean, is symmetric around the mean, and is bounded between ( _−_ Υ _,_ Υ). We can choose a number such that our distribution is bounded between _±_ Υ and select a _κ_ such that Ψ has unit variance.<sup>1</sup> An intuitive way to select Υ is for Υ to be the number of standard deviations away from _x_ ̄ one wishes to sample; for example, if _x_ 1 is the first percentile of the distribution of _x_ , then Assuming one has calculated _κ_ for their choice of Υ, a draw _x_<sup>_∗_</sup> _trunc_<sup>canbegeneratedusing</sup> It remains to apply the Gauss-Hermite approximation. We can approximate the distribution of _θ_ using _N_ Gauss-Hermite nodes with locations _{θ_ 1 _, ..., θN }_ , where _θi_ is the _i_<sup>th</sup> root of the physicist’s Hermite polynomials (Cai and Judd, 2010). Therefore, the locations of the Gauss-Hermite quadrature nodes for the truncated normal distribution are given by as originally desired.

We choose Υ to be the 1<sup>st</sup> percentile for the RCB distribution for the 1.7<sup>_◦_</sup> C and 2<sup>_◦_</sup> C targets,

> 1This is done using a root-finding algorithm, that can be found in the reproducibility package for this paper.

18
Table A.11. Individual-level regressions of social norms indices predicting women’s work outcomes, without controls

|||Full sample||F|emales only|||Males only||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|
||Paid<br>work|Paid<br>work|Paid<br>work|Paid<br>work|Paid<br>work|Paid<br>work|Paid<br>work|Paid<br>work|Paid<br>work|
|PNB Index – HH|-0.05*||-0.05*|-0.05||-0.04|-0.05||-0.05|
|Roles|(0.03)||(0.03)|(0.03)||(0.03)|(0.04)||(0.04)|
|SNE Index – HH|-0.01||-0.01|-0.04||-0.04|0.03||0.03|
|Roles|(0.05)||(0.04)|(0.05)||(0.05)|(0.06)||(0.06)|
|PNB Index –||-0.02|-0.00||-0.02|-0.01||-0.02|-0.01|
|Public Space||(0.03)|(0.03)||(0.03)|(0.03)||(0.03)|(0.04)|
|SNE Index –||-0.01|-0.00||-0.03|0.00||0.00|-0.00|
|Public Space||(0.03)|(0.04)||(0.03)|(0.04)||(0.04)|(0.04)|
|Constant|0.35***|0.33***|0.35***|0.37***|0.34***|0.37***|0.33***|0.33***|0.33***|
||(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.03)|(0.03)|(0.02)|(0.03)|
|Obs.|2,000|2,000|2,000|1,150|1,150|1,150|850|850|850|
|Adjusted R2|0.01|0.00|0.01|0.01|0.00|0.01|-0.00|-0.00|-0.00|
|Controls|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|
|Regional FE|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|NO|

_Notes_ : (1) Negative correlation means that more conservative beliefs and social expectations are associated with lower probability of women working for pay outside the house. (2) For all indices, higher the value, more conservative the beliefs and expectations. Outcome variable “Paid work” is binary with 1 if the female reported a “yes” to “I work outside the house for pay.” And if a male reported “yes” to “My wife works outside the house for pay.” (3) Standard errors clustered at the ward level. (4) Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

43
_Potential problems associated with free_ **_entry_** _Section 4_ In liberalised transport markets, such problems are also quite commonly observed. For example, when the New Zealand government allowed entry into the domestic air services market, the entrant (Ansett) and incumbent (Air New Zealand) scheduled services 10 minutes apart from each other, even though consumers might have preferred more even spacing of flights and hence more choice of flight times.

We are not aware of such problems in piped water and electricity. The most important reason for this is that water and electricity can generally only support one provider in any area. However, even if a market could support two providers of piped water or electricity, we would not expect the two ice-cream sellers problem. This is because the ice-cream sellers problem only likely to exist when:

- there is a dimension of the product which can take a range of different values (this could be location, or quality where increases in quality require increases in price);

- producers can choose where along this dimension to locate (e.g. centre of beach or end, low quality and low price, or medium quality and medium price); and

- customers are evenly distributed in their preference for different values of the variable in question, and will purchase the product which is closest to their preference.

In piped water and electricity there is generally no choice over location; it must be supplied to the customer's house. Nor will there be much scope to differentiate on quality if, as is often assumed, customers are very concerned that service meet a specified minimum standard, and are generally satisfied once that minimum is met.

That said, it is conceivable that this problem could exist in water and electricity supply. For example, customers might have a range of preferences on some dimension such as reliability of water supply. Those with a sunk investment in storage tanks, for example, might not mind intermittent supply, while others would want continuous supply. It could be that the socially efficient result would be for there to be one cheap unreliable water utility, and another expensive reliable utility. It could also be that free entry would result in two competing utilities of middling reliability and price.

Such problems seem very unlikely in practice. In fact, of the few examples of which we are aware of places which are supplied by more than one water network, the networks are differentiated by the quality of the water they supply. Examples include:

- Hong-Kong also has dual water systems. One supplies potable water, the other non-potable water for toilet flushing<sup>3 8</sup>

38 OECD Pricing of Water Services (1987).

_38_
||Iwl|PPR Working Plaer Serles<br>Athor|<br>Dimfor|Contact<br>paper|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|WPS294|Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and<br>Investment|Robert S. Pindyck|October 198U|N. Carolan<br>61737|
|WPS295|Developing Country Experience<br>in Trade Reform|Vinod Thomas|October 1989|S. Fallon<br>61680|
|WPS296|How Serious is the Neglect of<br>Intrahousehold Inequality?|Lawrence Haddad<br>Ravi Kanbur|November 1989|J. Sweeney<br>31021|
|WPS297|Effects of the Multi-Fibre<br>Arrangement on Developing<br>Countries' Tade: An Empirical<br>Investigation|Refik Erzan<br>Junichi Goto<br>Paula Holmes|November 1989|<br>L Tan<br>33702|
|WPS298|Evaluation and Validation of a Multi-<br>Region Econometric Model: A Case<br>Study of MULTIMOD: A Forward-L<br>Macroeconometric Model|Ahmad Jamshidi<br>ooking|||
|WPS299|The External Effects of Public<br>Sector Deficits|Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez|November 1989|<br>R. Luz<br>61588|
|WPS300|How the 1981-83 Chilean Banking<br>Crisis was Handled|Mauricio Larrain|||
|WPS301|Myths of the West: Lessons from<br>Developed Countries for Developm<br>Finance|Collin Mayer<br>ent|November 1989|<br>WDR Office<br>31393|
|WPS302|Improving Support Services for<br>Rural Schools: A Management<br>Perspective|Sherry Keith|||
|WPS303|Is Undernutrition Responsive to<br>Changes in Incomes?|Martin Ravallion|November 1989|<br>C. Spooner<br>30464|
|WPS304|The New Political Economy:<br>Positive Economics and Negative<br>Politics|Merilee S. Grindle|||
|WPS305|Between Public and Private: A<br>Review of Non-Governmental<br>Organization Involvement in Woria<br>Bank Projects|Lawrence F. Salmen<br>A Paige Eaves|||
|WPS306|A Method for Macroeconomic<br>Consistency in Current and<br>Constant Prices|Ali Khadr<br>Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel|||
# CONTENTS

||**Page No.**|
|---|---|
|Abstract ....||
|1.<br>Introduction ............................................|1I|
|II.<br>Changing National Economic Structure and Labour Markets ...............|........................ 3|
|III.<br>Regional Patterns of Employment and Wage Growth ............................|................ S<br>_5_|
|Economic Structure and Labour Markets 1971-90 .................................|............<br>6|
|Regional Labour Markets in the 1990s ............................................|12|
|IV.<br>Wage Differentials Between Regions ............................................|18|
|V.<br>Conclusions ............................................|19|
|References ............................................|23|
Policy Research Working Paper 7915

# **Abstract**

Proxy-means testing is a popular method of poverty targeting with imperfect information. In a now widely-used version, a regression for log consumption calibrates a proxymeans test score based on chosen covariates, which is then implemented for targeting out-of-sample. In this paper, the performance of various proxy-means testing methods is assessed using data for nine African countries. Standard proxy-means testing helps filter out the nonpoor, but excludes many poor people, thus diminishing the impact on poverty. Some methodological changes perform better, with a poverty-quantile method dominating in most cases. Even so, either a basic-income scheme or transfers using a simple demographic scorecard are found to do as well, or almost as well, in reducing poverty. However, even with a budget sufficient to eliminate poverty with full information, none of these targeting methods brings the poverty rate below about three-quarters of its initial value. The prevailing methods are particularly deficient in reaching the poorest.

This paper is a product of the Human Development and Public Services Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at dvandewalle@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team