# **Table of Contents**

|1. INTRO|DUCTION AND SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS ........................................................................... 1|
|---|---|
|2. STRUC|TURE OF MAMS ........................................................................................................................... 2|
|3. BASE S|CENARIO ...................................................................................................................................... 6|
|_Key_|_Assumptions ................................................................................................................................. 6_|
|_Resu_|_lts for BASE Scenario .................................................................................................................... 8_|
|4. ALTER|NATIVE POLICY OPTIONS ............................................................................................................ 11|
|5. CONCL|UDING OBSERVATIONS ............................................................................................................. 14|
|REFERENC|ES ................................................................................................................................................ 15|
|List of Figu<br>|res<br>|
|Figure 2.1|Aggregate payment flows in MAMS ........................................................................................ 17|
|Figure 2.2|The labor market in MAMS. .................................................................................................... 17|
|List of Tabl|es|
|Table 3.1|Real macro indicators: level in 2012 (constant US$ million) and base growth by period<br>(Percent per year) .................................................................................................................... 18|
|Table 3.2|Macro indicators in 2012 and for base simulation by period (Percent of nominal GDP) ....... 19|
|Table 3.3|Government budget in 2012 and for base simulation by period (Percent of nominal GDP) .. 20|
|Table 3.4|Balance of payments in 2012 and for base simulation by period (Percent of nominal GDP) . 21|
|Table 3.5|Sectoral GDP shares in 2012 and for base simulation by period (Percent of nominal GDP at<br>factor cost) .............................................................................................................................. 22|
|Table 3.6|Real GDP at factor cost by sector: level in 2012 (constant US$mn) and base growth by period<br>(Percent per year) .................................................................................................................... 22|
|Table 3.7|Sectoral structure for base scenario in 2012 and 2030 (Percent) ........................................... 23|
|Table 4.1|Real macro indicators in 2012 (constant US$mn) and growth 2012-2030 by simulation<br>(Percent per year) .................................................................................................................... 24|
|Table 4.2|Macro indicators in 2012 and by simulation in 2030 or averages for 2012-2030 (Percent of<br>nominal GDP)........................................................................................................................... 25|
|Table 4.3|Government budget in 2012 and by simulation in 2030 (Percent of nominal GDP) .............. 26|

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