# **Table A1.** **_Coefficients of economic policy uncertainty in dynamic specifications using yearly data_**

|||<br>A. Re|lo of EPU<br>lative prices:|lo of EPU<br>REER|B. Relativ<br>defl|lo of EPU<br>e prices: ratio<br>ator to GDP de|lo of EPU<br>of import<br>flator|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Dependent variable:<br>growth in the import volume of|log of EPU<br>index<br> <br>|g<br>index ‐ lagged<br>2 months|<br>g<br>index ‐ lagged<br>6 months|<br>log of EPU<br>index|g<br>index ‐ lagged<br>2 months|<br>g<br>index ‐ lagged<br>6 months|
|(1)|Goods and services: lagged dep. var.|‐0.0204**|‐0.0222**|‐0.0152**|‐0.0248**|‐0.0257**|‐0.0169**|
|(2)|Goods and services: lagged covariates (real GDP and<br>REER)|‐0.0328***|‐0.0335***|‐0.0237**|‐0.0331***|‐0.0318***|‐0.0205**|
|(3)|Goods and services: lagged dep. var. and covariates|‐0.0304***|‐0.0310***|‐0.0200**|‐0.0303***|‐0.0289***|‐0.0162**|
|(4)|Goods (IMF data): lagged dep. var.|‐0.0225**|‐0.0245**|‐0.0172**|‐0.0266**|‐0.0277**|‐0.0177*|
|(5)|Goods (IMF data): lagged covariates (real GDP and<br>REER)|‐0.0348***|‐0.0358***|‐0.0251**|‐0.0333**|‐0.0319**|‐0.0186*|
|(6)|Goods (IMF data): lagged dep. var. and covariates|‐0.0337**|‐0.0347**|‐0.0234**|‐0.0311**|‐0.0297**|‐0.0153|
|(7)|Goods (WTO data): lagged dep. var.|‐0.0245**|‐0.0272**|‐0.0190*|‐0.0241*|‐0.0263**|‐0.0178|
|(8)|Goods (WTO data): lagged covariates (real GDP and<br>REER)|‐0.0372**|‐0.0390***|‐0.0272**|‐0.0318**|‐0.0320**|‐0.0185|
|(9)|Goods(WTO data): lagged dep. var. and covariates|‐0.0340**|‐0.0356***|‐0.0231**|‐0.0271**|‐0.0271**|‐0.0128|

_Sources_ : International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, World Bank Global Economic Monitor, International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics, World Trade Organization, World Input Output Database (WIOD), <u>www.PolicyUncertainty.com, Baker et al. (2016), and authors’ calculations. See Table 1 for details. Notes: Heteroscedasticity-robust</u> standard errors corrected for clustering at country level. * p<0.10; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01. Panel covers 18 countries and period 19952018. Growth indicators are computed as log-differences. The number reported in each cell comes from a regression and represents the coefficient of log of EPU index, either contemporaneous or lagged, depending on the specification. All regressions include country and time fixed effects as well as controls for growth in absorption and in relative prices.

**Table A2.** **_Coefficients of economic policy uncertainty in specifications that control for tariffs_**

||Dependent variable:<br>growth in the import volume of|log of EPU<br>index<br> <br> <br>A. R|log of EPU<br>index ‐ lagged<br>2 months<br>elative prices:|<br>log of EPU<br>index ‐ lagged<br>6 months<br>REER|<br>log of EPU<br>index<br>B. Relativ<br>defl|log of EPU<br>index ‐ lagged<br>2 months<br>e prices: rati<br>ator to GDP de|<br>log of EPU<br>index ‐ lagged<br>6 months<br>o of import<br>flator|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|(1)|Goods and services|‐0.0216**|‐0.0235**|‐0.0175**|‐0.0256**|‐0.0265**|‐0.0188**|
|(2)|Goods|‐0.0219**|‐0.0238**|‐0.0170**|‐0.0259**|‐0.0268**|‐0.0176**|

_Sources_ : International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics, <u>www.PolicyUncertainty.com,</u> Baker et al. (2016), and authors’ calculations. See Table 1 for details. The tariff measure is obtained from TRAINS (via WITS) and it represents, for each country and year, the simple average of MFN tariffs. Notes: Heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors corrected for clustering at country level. * p<0.10; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01. Panel covers 18 countries and period 1995-2018. Growth indicators are computed as log-differences. The number reported in each cell comes from a regression and represents the coefficient of log of EPU index, either contemporaneous or lagged, depending on the specification. All regressions include country and time fixed effects as well as controls for growth in absorption and in relative prices.

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