_5_ consideration other possible determinants of unemployment and to ascertain the joint effect<sup>of</sup> different variables as well as the interaction between them, To this effeLt, this section presents the results of a multivariate analysis which aims at estimating the effect of different variables - age, education, geog-aphical location and<sup>marital status -</sup> on tde probability of t ing unemployed in a given week. Probit models are estimated<sup>for men and</sup> **won,cn,** using data on urban areas drawn from the 1988 National Employment Surve, (ENE). Results are presented in Tables 8 to 10.

Our estimates show that sex, educa ;on levels, age, marital status and geographical location are important determinants of the probability of unemployment. They also<sup>show that the effect of some of</sup> these variables is somewhat differet t from what was observed earlier when interactions between variab!es were not taken into account.

# A. Results for Males

Results obtained for men are presented in tables 8 4nd 9. Table 8 reports probit<sup>estimates</sup> obtained with the two definitions of unemployment. Table 9 considers only the broader definition but reports estimates ob.ained by dividing the sample by age and education groups.

Table 8 shows that while the effect of schooling on the proba'>ility of being unemployed is positive when only active job seekers are considercd as unemployed, the effect is reversed when a broader defirition of unemployment is used. This result is consistent with what<sup>was observed earlier</sup> in the previous section. Movements in and out of the labor force over short time spans, as well as<sup>low</sup> search intensity, are more prevalent among low educated workers. When this is taken<sup>into account,</sup> the probability of being unemployed appears higher at lower levels of education.<sup>Table 9, which</sup> reports estimates obtoined by dividing the sample by education levels, indicates that the probability<sup>of</sup> unemployment declines with education up to 6 years of schooling; beyond, it remains constant.

Age decreases the likelihood of being unemployed up to the age of about 45. The effect is not linear: the decline is much stronger at an early stage of working life (between ages 12 and 20) than afterwards; it is also sharper among secondary graduates that for other levels of<sup>el' cation (see table</sup> 9).

Being married or cohabitating reduces significan.ly the p.obability of being unemploye.d,<sup>which</sup> is consistent wiu the hypothesis thar family responsabilities induce greater labor force<sup>attachment</sup> among men.

Regional differences also appear to be signiticant. Estimates obt.ined for the whole sample suggest that the Drobability of unemployment is higher in Mexico City (the DF) than in other parts<sup>of</sup> the country. H 2ver, when the sample is divided into education groups (as shown in Table 9, column 6), this effect disappears for those with at least 10 years of schooling,<sup>suggesting that more</sup> highly educated workers are not any more likely to be unemployed in the D.F. than in other<sup>regions</sup> of Mexico. Similarly, while the probability of unemployment does not appear higher<sup>in the northern</sup> states of Mexico than in the center or southern states for the sample as a whole, distinguishing according to age and education shows that the likelihood of being unemployed is<sup>higher in the North</sup> for teenagers (and similar to what is observed in the DF). It is also higher for individuals<sup>with less</sup>