**Table 10. ECD Outcomes OLS and Logit (Odds Ratio) Community Fixed Effects Results by Outcome**

||**Prenatal**|**Delivery**|**Height-for-**<br>**age**|**Weight-for-**<br>**age**|**Weight-for-**<br>**height**|**Preschool**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Round (2008 omit.)**|||||||
|**2011**|0.492***|1.182***|˗0.262|1.206***|1.402***|˗1.015***|
||(0.181)|(0.196)|(0.378)|(0.234)|(0.381)|(0.375)|
|**2013**|0.470***|0.939***|˗0.869**|0.630***|1.846***|˗0.619*|
||(0.180)|(0.191)|(0.355)|(0.238)|(0.310)|(0.340)|
|**INDH and round**|||||||
|**interactions**|||||||
|**2011 and INDH**|0.060|˗0.063|˗0.146|0.015|0.142|˗0.213|
||(0.246)|(0.264)|(0.528)|(0.317)|(0.553)|(0.561)|
|**2013 and INDH**|˗0.074|˗0.036|0.800|0.371|˗0.192|˗0.115|
||(0.245)|(0.257)|(0.493)|(0.327)|(0.399)|(0.498)|
|**Constant**|||˗1.766***|˗0.282***|1.094***||
||||(0.095)|(0.092)|(0.084)||
|**N (Observations)**|1,839|1,835|955|1,097|887|948|

_Source:_ Authors’ calculations based on ONDH impact evaluation panel survey. _Notes:_ *p < 0.1; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01. Standard errors clustered on commune level for the OLS models. Odds ratios are presented for the fixed effect logit (conditional logit) due to the conditional nature of estimates precluding standard marginal effects for this model.

In conclusion, the INDH did not have significant impacts on children’s health, nutrition, or preschooling. It should be noted that even though these areas were not the main targets of the INDH, we would expect some direct and indirect effects on ECD from the INDH activities.

# **_6 Discussion_**

# _6.1 Implications of the Study_

This study has assessed (a) the impact of the INDH on economic outcomes and (b) if the INDH has enhanced ECD, a critical phase of human development and the transmission of socioeconomic status, inequality, and poverty across generations. Previous work on the impact of the INDH, using the 2008 and 2011 data and an RDD approach, had identified substantial economic development and human development impacts (Observatoire National du Developpement Humain, 2012).<sup>16</sup> Using regression models, RDD, and fixed effects models we find somewhat smaller economic impacts, particularly by 2013, when program effects seem to have dissipated. It is important to keep in mind that by 2013, many of the Phase I control areas had received Phase II (as had the Phase I treatment areas). The lack of an impact in 2013 suggests that there may be some initial high-return projects that boost outcomes in treated communities but that the 2005–2011 investments in the INDH Phase I communities made them no better off than if they had just received the 2011–2013 investments, as did the Phase II communities.

Although our findings suggest that the INDH may offer an initial economic benefit but not have long-term, ongoing, transformative effects, rough calculations suggest benefits exceeded costs during Phase I. Since Phase I of the project from 2006 to 2010 cost DH 14 billion 16 That different results from the previous evaluation (Observatoire National du Developpement Humain, 2012) were generated in this impact evaluation for 2008 and 2011 is due to not only the different mix of methods used but also the fact that the previous evaluation estimated impacts on a household rather than on a per capita basis.

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