**Table 4.1. Real macro indicators by simulation (% annual growth 2013-2022)**

||**2012**|**base**|**inv-og**|**inv-tx**|**inv-sb**|**trn-og i**|**nv-og- in**|**v-og+**|**inv-tx- i**|**nv-tx+ inv-ogsb+**|**hi-grw**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Absorption**|12,273.1|4.2|4.4|4.3|4.3|4.3|4.0|4.8|3.9|4.7<br>5.0|6.7|
|**Consumption - private**|9,885.2|4.0|4.2|3.9|3.9|4.2|3.8|4.6|3.5|4.2<br>4.5|6.1|
|**Consumption - government**|783.4|6.0|3.8|6.2|6.1|3.6|3.8|3.8|6.2|6.2<br>4.0|6.2|
|**Fixed investment - private**|1,179.8|4.5|4.9|4.0|4.4|4.8|4.0|5.7|3.1|4.9<br>5.6|9.5|
|**Fixed investment - government**|424.7|5.0|9.0|9.4|8.6|4.4|8.4|9.6|9.4|9.5<br>12.4|11.6|
|**Exports**|1,494.9|4.6|5.0|4.5|4.7|4.8|4.5|5.6|3.9|5.1<br>5.7|8.5|
|**Imports**|2,313.9|4.1|4.4|4.0|4.1|4.2|4.0|4.8|3.6|4.4<br>4.8|6.8|
|**GDP at factor cost**|10,858.4|4.3|4.5|4.4|4.4|4.3|4.1|5.0|3.9|4.8<br>5.1|7.0|
|**Total factor productivity (index)**|Eps|1.5|1.5|1.5|1.5|1.5|1.3|1.7|1.2|1.7<br>1.7|3.1|
|**GNDI per capita**|0.1|2.2|2.4|2.3|2.3|2.2|2.0|2.8|1.9|2.6<br>2.9|4.7|
|**Real exchange rate (index)**<br>|Eps|0.0|0.0|0.1|0.0|-0.1|-0.1|0.1|0.0|0.2<br>0.2|0.1|
|**Unemployment rate (%)**|15.7|12.6|11.7|13.8|13.2|12.0|13.4|10.2|15.7|11.9<br>10.6|5.0|
|**Foreign government debt**|25.7|25.4|25.1|25.5|25.3|25.3|25.9|24.3|26.3|24.7<br>24.2|20.2|
|**Domesticgovernment debt**|35.6|36.2|35.5|36.0|35.8|36.2|37.0|34.0|37.6|34.5<br>33.5|31.5|

**Note:**

**1. Unless otherwise noted, column for 2012 shows data in 2008 rupees.**

**2. For unemployment, the 2012 and simulation columns show the 2012 rate and simulation-specific 2022 rates, respectively.**

**Table 4.2. Government receipts and spending in 2012 and by simulation in 2022 (% of nominal GDP)**

||||**2022**|||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Indicator**||**2012**|**base**|**inv-og**|**inv-tx**|**inv-sb**|**trn-og i**|**nv-og- in**|**v-og+**|**inv-tx- i**|**nv-tx+ **|**inv-ogsb+ **|**hi-grw**|
|**Receipts **|**Direct taxes**|3.5|4.7|4.7|5.5|4.6|4.8|4.7|4.7|5.7|5.4|4.6|4.8|
||**Import tariffs**|1.0|1.3|1.4|1.3|1.3|1.3|1.4|1.4|1.3|1.3|1.4|1.4|
||**Other indirect taxes**|4.2|6.1|6.2|7.5|7.6|6.1|6.1|6.2|7.7|7.3|7.7|6.3|
||**Foreign transfers**|0.2|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.3|0.4|0.4|0.3|0.3|
||**Factor income**|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|0.4|
||**Domestic borrowing**|5.8|3.3|3.3|3.3|3.3|3.3|3.4|3.3|3.4|3.3|3.2|3.6|
||**Foreign borrowing**|0.9|1.1|1.0|1.1|1.1|1.1|1.1|1.0|1.1|1.0|1.0|0.8|
||**Total**|15.9|17.3|17.3|19.5|18.7|17.4|17.4|17.3|20.0|19.0|18.7|17.6|
|**Spen-**|**Consumption**|6.8|8.0|6.4|8.2|8.1|6.3|6.6|6.2|8.5|7.9|6.3|6.8|
|**ding***|**Fixed investment**|3.7|3.9|5.6|5.9|5.3|3.7|5.4|5.7|6.1|5.8|7.1|5.6|
||**Human development**|3.2|3.8|3.7|3.8|3.7|3.8|3.8|3.6|3.9|3.6|3.6|3.1|
||**Infrastructure**|2.5|2.5|4.5|4.6|4.0|2.5|4.4|4.7|4.8|4.5|6.1|4.4|
||**Other consumption+investment**|4.9|5.7|3.7|5.7|5.6|3.8|3.8|3.7|5.9|5.6|3.6|4.9|
||**Domestic transfers**|4.5|4.5|4.5|4.5|4.5|6.5|4.5|4.5|4.5|4.5|4.5|4.5|
||**Domestic interest payments**|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|0.2|
||**Foreign interest payments**|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.7|0.6|
||**Total**|15.9|17.3|17.3|19.5|18.7|17.4|17.4|17.3|20.0|19.0|18.7|17.6|

*Government final demands may be split into (a) consumption and fixed investment; or (b) by function (here broadly into human development, infrastructure and other.

**Table 4.3. Real GDP at factor cost for aggregate sectors -- annual growth 2013-2022 (%)**

||**base**|**inv-og**|**inv-tx**|**inv-sb**|**trn-og**|**inv-og-**|**inv-og+**|**inv-tx-**|**inv-tx+ in**|**v-ogsb+**|**hi-grw**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Agriculture**|3.9|4.2|4.0|4.1|4.1|3.8|4.7|3.5|4.5|4.9|6.4|
|**Industry**|4.1|4.5|4.2|4.1|4.3|4.0|4.9|3.8|4.7|4.9|6.8|
|**Services**|4.6|4.7|4.6|4.6|4.5|4.3|5.1|4.2|5.0|5.2|7.3|
|**Private**|4.5|4.7|4.5|4.5|4.5|4.3|5.1|4.0|4.9|5.2|7.3|
|**Government***|5.7|4.4|5.9|5.8|4.2|4.3|4.5|5.8|6.0|4.7|6.6|
|**Primary education**|2.8|2.8|2.8|2.8|2.8|2.8|2.8|2.8|2.8|2.8|2.8|
|**Secondary education**|5.9|5.9|5.9|5.9|5.9|5.9|5.9|5.9|5.9|5.9|5.9|
|**Tertiary education**|12.5|12.5|12.5|12.5|12.5|12.5|12.5|12.5|12.5|12.5|12.5|
|**Health**|5.8|5.8|5.8|5.8|5.8|5.8|5.8|5.8|5.8|5.8|5.8|
|**Water-sanitation**|4.8|4.8|4.8|4.8|4.8|4.8|4.8|4.8|4.8|4.8|4.8|
|**Agriculture infrastructure**|4.8|7.7|7.7|7.4|4.8|7.4|8.0|7.7|7.7|10.1|8.1|
|**Energy infrastructure**|4.8|7.8|7.8|7.5|4.8|7.5|8.0|7.8|7.8|10.2|8.1|
|**Other infrastructure**|4.3|7.3|7.3|7.0|4.3|7.0|7.5|7.3|7.3|9.7|7.6|
|**Other**|5.2|2.9|5.3|5.2|2.8|2.7|3.1|5.1|5.4|3.1|6.4|
|**Total**|4.3|4.5|4.4|4.4|4.3|4.1|5.0|3.9|4.8|5.1|7.0|

*Government services may be demanded both by government and non-government.

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