|Dep. Var: Hesitancy|(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Oxford stringency index terciles (ref. –<br>bottom tercile)|||||||
|Stringency (middle tercile)|||0.061|||0.148|
||||(0.073)|||(0.077)|
|Stringency (top tercile)|||-0.005|||0.028|
||||(0.060)|||(0.059)|
|WHO excess deaths due to COVID-19|||||||
|(ref.- bottom tercile)|||||||
|Excess deaths (middle tercile)||||-0.110*<br>(0.050)||-0.123<br>(0.080)|
|Excess deaths (top tercile)||||-0.059||0.045|
|||||(0.067)||(0.106)|
|Confidence in government index tercile|||||||
|(ref.- top tercile)|||||||
|Confidence in government|||||0.073<br>(0.054)|0.105<br>(0.064)|
|Confidence in government (top|||||0.016|0.055|
||||||(0.131)|(0.135)|
|Constant|0.282*|0.286*|0.265|0.395**|0.206|0.190|
||(0.136)|(0.140)|(0.141)|(0.143)|(0.149)|(0.145)|
|R-squared|0.090|0.090|0.095|0.097|0.102|0.123|
|N|65088|65088|65088|65088|65088|65088|

Notes: Weighted logit regressions. Marginal effects reported. Standard errors clustered at country level. *, **, *** indicates significance at the 95%, 99%, and 99.9% level.

In the extended regression model, we test two additional hypotheses. First, we expect that the severity of the pandemic, for which we use three different proxies, would be negatively correlated with hesitancy. Our first measure, in column (2) is the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported in the country. The higher the risk of infection and illness, as captured by the number of new cases, may make respondents more inclined to get vaccinated to protect against COVID-19 infections. At the same time, it should be recognized that testing capacity differed significantly across countries and over time, such that the measures of new COVID-19 cases per million is an imperfect proxy for pandemic severity. Nevertheless, this variable also captures the visibility of the pandemic to the overall population (even if true severity may be higher), and we would expect visibility / salience to be negatively correlated with hesitancy as well.

Our second proxy for pandemic severity, in column (3), is the degree of stringency in the government’s policy measures, as captured by the Oxford policy stringency index. We expect ex-ante that a more stringent the policy response, signaling higher severity of the pandemic and more restrictions on movement, would be positively associated with willingness to be vaccinated.

Our third proxy for pandemic severity, in column (4), is the number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, as reported by the WHO. The excess mortality measure quantifies the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, measured in terms of the difference between the total number of deaths for a specific place and time period and the number of deaths that would have been expected in the absence of COVID-19. This difference is inclusive of both deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 as well as deaths indirectly associated with COVID-19 through its impact on health systems and society. As a prior, we would expect higher levels of excess COVID-19 deaths to be positively correlated with willingness to get vaccinated, although, at the same time, higher hesitancy can also bring about more excess deaths.

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