[3], [7], and [11]. This indicates that studies focusing on pacifying mechanisms in each metasubgroup report a lower risk of conflict following an income shock, while studies focusing on stressful mechanisms report a higher risk of conflict. The presence of publication bias appears conditional to the type of mechanism tested. We find a positive and statistically significant intercept when we control for pacifying mechanisms in columns [2], [6] and [10]. When we control for stressful mechanisms, the intercept in column [11] is also statistically significant (at the 0.10 level) but negative. These results indicate the presence of a substantial Type I publication selection bias in studies that do not focus on pacifying mechanisms, and in studies encompassing HS+ that do not test stressful mechanisms. In other words, the current literature favors the publication of results showing: (i) the detrimental impacts of income shocks on the local risk of conflict through theoretically stressful/undefined mechanisms, (ii) that pacifying mechanisms in the extractive sector reduce the local risk of conflict.

Table 3: Explaining Heterogeneity in the Estimated Effects of Income Shocks on Conflicts [Direction of the Tested Mechanism]

||[1]|[2]<br>AS|[3]<br>+|[4]|[5]<br>**Main c**|[6]<br>**hannels of tr**<br>AS|[7]<br>**ansmission**<br>-|[8]|[9]|[10]<br>H|[11]<br>S+|[12]|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Whole sample**|||||||||||||
|Precision (1/SE)|**-0.005 *****|**-0.005 *****|**-0.005 *****|**-0.005 *****|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.001|0.001|0.001|0.001|
||**(0.001)**|**(0.001)**|**(0.001)**|**(0.001)**|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|
|Constant|-0.084|**1.695 *****|-0.360|-0.084|**2.165 *****|**2.475 *****|0.575|**2.172 *****|0.708|**1.242 ****|**-2.108 ***|0.708|
||(0.493)|**(0.533)**|(0.451)|(0.493)|**(0.324)**|**(0.261)**|(0.712)|**(0.331)**|(0.601)|**(0.556)**|**(1.237)**|(0.601)|
|**_Type of mechanism_**|||||||||||||
|Mecha. pacifying=1||**-2.055 *****||||**-4.885 *****||||**-3.350 *****|||
|||**(0.333)**||||**(1.043)**||||**(1.353)**|||
|Mecha. stressful=1|||**2.055 *****||||**1.814 *****||||**3.350 ****||
||||**(0.333)**||||**(0.736)**||||**(1.353)**||
|Mecha. undefned=1||||-||||-0.123<br>||||-|
|||||-||||(0.930)||||-|
|#studies|23|23|23|23|32|32|32|32|13|13|13|13|
|Observations|448|448|448|448|481|481|481|481|325|325|325|325|
|%Observations|32%|32%|32%|32%|35%|35%|35%|35%|23%|23%|23%|23%|

Notes: All models are estimated with a multilevel mixed-effects model on the whole sample of 2,464 observations and 64 studies. The dependent variable is the t-statistic of the estimate of interest on conflicts as dependent variable. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Columns [1] to [4] focus on positive agricultural shocks, columns [5] to [8] focus on negative agricultural shocks, and columns [9] to [12] focus on positive hydrocarbon/mineral shocks. Results on pure (positive and negative) climatic shocks and other potential shocks are presented in Table A2 from the Appendices section. A detailed description of all variables is available in Table A3. The detailed composition of mechanisms is available in Tables A5, A6, and A7. _∗p <_ 0 _._ 10 _, ∗∗ p <_ 0 _._ 05 _, ∗∗∗p <_ 0 _._ 01. _Source: Authors’ compilation from MRA database._ Table 4 presents our results when we control for the type of interactive term in the regression. Coefficients associated with the inclusion of a risk absorber interaction term are negative and statistically significant in Columns [2], [6] and [10]. Conversely, coefficients associated with the inclusion of a risk enhancer interaction term appear positive and statistically significant in Columns [3], [7] and [11]. This indicates that studies implementing interactions conclude a higher (or lower) local risk of conflict in line with the authors’ expectations. Columns [4], [8] and [12] show that coeffi23