# **Table B2:  Political Stability**

- **Code Concept Measured Representative Sources DRI** _Military Coup Risk_ : A military coup d’etat (or a series of such events) that reduces the GDP growth rate by 2% during any 12-month period. _Major Insurgency/Rebellion_ : An increase in scope or intensity of one or more insurgencies/rebellions that reduces the GDP growth rate by 3% during any 12-month period. _Political Terrorism:_ An increase in scope or intensity of terrorism that reduces the GDP growth rate by 1% during any 12-month period. _Political Assassination_ : A political assassination (or a series of such events) that reduces the GDP growth rate by 1% during any 12month period. _Civil War_ **:** An increase in scope or intensity of one or more civil wars that reduces the GDP growth rate by 4% during any 12-month period. _Major Urban Riot:_ An increase in scope, intensity, or frequency of rioting that reduces the GDP growth rate by 1% during any 12-month period.

- **EIU** Armed conflict Violent demonstrations Social Unrest International tensions

- **GCS** _Country terrorist threat_ : Does the threat of terrorism in the country impose significant costs on firms? **HUM** Frequency of political killings Frequency of disappearances Frequency of torture

- **IJT** Security Risk Rating **MIG** _Extremism._ The term “extremism” covers the threat posed by any individuals or organisations who hold a narrow set of fanatical beliefs. Extremists are likely to believe that any and all means are justified to eradicate the target of hostility, and are not afraid to destroy themselves in the process. This ideological aspect of extremism makes it highly unpredictable, and its close association with violence makes it highly dangerous. The extent to which extremism should be judged a threat to a particular business in a particular market can be assessed along the following lines: integration issues; religious tensions; pressure groups; terrorist activity; xenophobia.

- **PRS** _Internal Conflict_ **:** Assesses political violence and its influence on governance. _External conflict:_ The external conflict measure is an assessment both of the risk to the incumbent government and to inward investment. _Government Stability._ Measures the government’s ability to carry out its declared programs, and its ability to stay in office. _Ethnic tensions_ : This component measures the degree of tension within a country attributable to racial, nationality, or language divisions.

- **PTS** Political Terror Scale

- **WMO** _Civil unrest_ How widespread political unrest is, and how great a threat it poses to investors. Demonstrations in themselves may not be cause for concern, but they will cause major disruption if they escalate into severe violence. At the extreme, this factor would amount to civil war. _Terrorism_ Whether the country suffers from a sustained terrorist threat, and from how many sources. The degree of localization of the threat is assessed, and whether the active groups are likely to target or affect businesses.

- **Non-representative Sources AEO** Political Troubles **BRI** Fractionalization of political spectrum and the power of these factions. Fractionalization by language, ethnic and/or religious groups and the power of these factions. Restrictive (coercive) measures required to retain power. Organization and strength of forces for a radical government.<sup>Societal conflict involving demonstrations, strikes, and street violence.</sup> Instability as perceived by non-constitutional changes, assassinations, and guerrilla wars.

- **WCY** Risk of political instability

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