rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
**Figure 1: non-oil exports by AGOA beneficiaries by region**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 40,000<br>35,000<br>EU-15<br>30,000<br>25,000<br>20,000<br>15,000<br>Asia<br>10,000<br>USA<br>5,000<br>0<br>1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005<br>USD million<br><!-- End of picture text --> In addition, there are cases where although an export is eligible for GSP or AGOA preferences it does not request those preferences and enters the US paying the MFN duty. This may reflect lack of knowledge of those preferences, or much more likely, that the costs of satisfying the rules of origin exceed the value of the preference. For example, in 2004 more than 50 percent of Mauritius’s exports of knitted apparel that was eligible for AGOA preferences entered under no program, probably because complying with those rules would have undermined the ability to compete in the US market. In 2005, when Mauritius had access under the third country fabric rule, this value fell to 22 percent (we return to the issue of rules of origin in more detail below).

Figure 2 shows that exports to the US under AGOA have grown strongly since 2000 reaching nearly $2.2 billion in 2004 but falling to $1.7 billion in 2005. Exports entering under the GSP have also increased since 2001 and their dollar value in 2005 was almost double that of 1999. The majority of exports from AGOA beneficiaries to the US continue to enter under no program, although most are subject to a zero duty. Exports entering under no program have also increased strongly in recent years and were 50% higher in 2005 than in 1999. Some of the decline in no program exports in 2001 and 2002 reflects the shift into the use of AGOA preferences. As we shall see later, trade under AGOA is not evenly distributed across countries, a small group of countries account for the vast majority of AGOA exports. Exports under AGOA are also highly concentrated on a particular product, apparel, to which we now turn. Apparel accounts for much of the increase under AGOA up to 2004 and accounts for 40 percent of the decrease in AGOA trade in 2005.

5
_ANDR EE_<sup>_ ́_</sup> _DECEMBER - 2021_ _22_ lic of Yemen.<sup>30</sup> This highlighted that it is possible to track dollar-denominated prices, broadly for the five food categories that comprise the FAO index, and draw comparisons with price events in global markets when the exchange rate is also monitored. In this paper, it is simply noted that figures A2 to A4 provide some visual guidance on how global price change events propagate at the national level, as nearly all the country graphs display inflation events in 2020. The figures indicate that there may be substantial cross-country heterogeneity in the timing and amplitude of the price surges, which likely relates to differences in factors such as whether a country is a net importer or exporter of food and how the local currency is managed during times of crisis. Finally, since not all products matter the same for household well-being, future analysis may use the estimates developed by this paper to explore food-specific price dynamics or produce inflation estimates based on food baskets that incorporate information on expenditure shares.

Deploying statistical methods to enhance data gathering may help improve price estimates more widely. For instance, additional investments could be redirected to broaden the scope of data gathering to include additional sampling locations and food items rather than be used to strengthen data coverage of existing narrow monitoring operations. This could give a more complete view on subnational inflation than can be achieved by pure data gathering alone. Moreover, gathering data on additional food items can help produce more accurate predictors for missing observations. The imputations primarily utilize contemporaneous relations between the prices of different items, and so priority in data gathering should be given to ensuring that in each month prices of at least some items at some markets are observed. Ensuring that some data is available most of the time periods is more important than ensuring that most of the data is available in some of the time periods. In addition, predictions are more reliable in high inflation episodes and less reliable in high volatility episodes, so data gathering processes may also use statistical methods to produce real-time price estimates and use the results in turn to determine how much new data gathering is needed.

# **References**

- Ahumada, H. and Cornejo, M. (2016). Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat. _International Journal of Forecasting_ , 32(3):838–848.

- Andr ́ee, B. P. J. (2020). _Theory and Application of Dynamic Spatial Time Series Models_ . Rozenberg Publishers and Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam.

- Andr ́ee, B. P. J. (2021). Monthly food price estimates by product and market. In _WLD_ _~~2~~ 021 RTFP_ _~~v~~ 02_ _~~M~~_ , Version 2021-12-02. World Bank Microdata Library, Washington, DC.

> 30Results and adapted code are available from the author upon request.
- 20 -

3 A second-stage equation for tractors could not be estimated because none of the explanatory variables has a significant effect on the tractors investment. Thus, the tractor variable was dropped.

4 Thanks to Dr. Gad&Ll of NABARD who has kindly opened the data base and personally organized the assembly of the unpublished banking data. This paper would not have been feasible without his kind help in collecting the banking data.

Since employment equations represent occupational status of rural households over the decade of 1970, the annual rainfall variable does not enter into these equations. This is, however, not the case with agricultural wage which comes from annual data.
- 14 -

Among infrastructure access variables, transport accessibility and access to improved sanitation facilities are found to be significant. While market accessibility is strongly positive, sanitation facility access has a weakly positive coefficient. The impacts of other infrastructure services are found to be insignificant. This may be an interesting finding from the public policy perspective, though the possibility that our transport accessibility variables might capture accessibility to other infrastructure services still cannot be ruled out. As long as agrobusinesses are concerned, there may be a certain rationale to prioritize transport connectivity.

**<u>Table 4. Implied elasticity based on SPTobit model</u>**

|<br>Variable|<br>Elasticity|<br>Std. Err.||
|---|---|---|---|
|MAI|0.649|(0.211)|***|
|PAI|0.396|(0.377)||
|FAI|0.112|(0.288)||
|N|0.543|(0.140)|***|
|ALLN|0.428|(0.123)|***|
|POP|0.827|(0.490)|*|
|EDU|6.122|(2.308)|***|
|WAGE|-1.542|(1.541)||
|MOBL|1.343|(1.614)||
|PC|0.243|(0.465)||
|WATR|-0.211|(1.380)||
|POWR|-1.433|(1.209)||
|LATR|2.218|(1.193)|*|

One may think of robustness of the results against the inclusion of these infrastructure access variables. Even if these are excluded, the main estimation results are unchanged ( **Table 5** ): The effect of market accessibility is significantly positive, and agglomeration economies are also important. While the local education level is still important, the average wage has a negative and significant coefficient, which is consistent with economic theory. Firms prefer to locate themselves where labor inputs are cheaper. Note that the quality of labor has already been taken into account.
expenditure category mostly comprises investment in public infrastructure and construction projects. Our estimates in columns 3 and 4 indicate that as a result of the FD Law, ex ante more indebted state governments also contracted their expenditures in infrastructure projects relative to their GDP. A one-standard-deviation increase in a state’s ex ante indebtedness leads to a contraction in public infrastructure spending over GDP of around 0.3 p.p. (0.004*0.7). The next indicator, _Social Servicess,y_ , consists of the ratio of the public spending category “transfers, subsidies and other aid” to the state’s GDP. This category is the largest expenditure of local governments and is mainly directed to more vulnerable populations via funding of health, education, and social assistance programs/institutions. Results in columns 5 and 6 show that ex ante more indebted states also cut their spending on social aid after the Law. Our estimates indicate that a one-standard-deviation increase in a state’s ex ante indebtedness is associated with a reduction in social-aid public spending of around 0.4 p.p.. Finally, the last two columns of Panel A present the results of the impact of the FD Law on the ratio of public debt servicing to states’ GDP. Consistent with the increased borrowing risk from the introduction of debt ceilings, we find that more ex-ante indebted state governments had to channel more of their resources to service their outstanding debt after the FD Law.

Estimates of the effect of the FD Law on states’ yearly fiscal revenue indicators are displayed in Panel B. More concretely, we focus on the two main sources of operational income of subnational governments— federal transfers and taxes. As expected, results from columns 9 and 10 show that the FD Law did not affect the ratio of federal transfers to a state’s GDP. However, our estimates in columns 11 and 12 suggest that tax rates in more ex-ante indebted states increased after the FD Law (by 10 percent on average), likely in an attempt to raise fiscal revenue. Overall, these results suggest that more indebted states reduce public spending and raise taxes to increase payments of their outstanding debt.

# _5.1.2. Economic Activity of States_

Table 2B presents our estimates from equation 1 using the state-quarterly data. Our first outcome of interest corresponds to the GDP of states. The next outcomes are states’ total employment, as well as employment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. All these variables are measured in quarterly growth rates. Overall, the estimates suggest that after the introduction of the FD Law, states with ex ante higher indebtedness experienced an increase in 23
Value added in the public sector is measured by the government wage bill, as in national accounts: where S4 and _U4_ (respectively WSG and WUG) denote employment levels (respectively wages) of skilled and unskilled workers in government. Employment levels are treated as predetermined policy variables, whereas wage formation is discussed below.

# **2.2 The Labor** Market

As noted earlier, there are two categories of workers in the economy, skilled and unskilled. Unskilled workers may be employed either in the rural economy or in the urban economy, whereas skilled workers are employed only in the urban economy. As discussed later, skilled workers have a high reservation wage and therefore do not seek employment in the informal economy, even when they are unable to find a job in the formal sector.

In addition to accounting for various sources of labor market segmentation (a pervasive feature of the labor market in developing countries), MiniIMMPA accounts for the existence of employment protection regulations, an important component of which being state-mandated firing costs. Indeed, in many of developing countries, severance payments tend to be a partial substitute to unemployment insurance benefits. An important issue is whether these costs contribute to a high level of unemployment and to its degree of persistence-perhaps by reducing employment variation over the business cycle, as argued by Bertola (1990).3 A general conclusion of the literature is that firing costs affect employment dynamics more than the average level of employment; unemployment tends to be more persistent in countries characterized by high job security provisions, because mandatory firing costs play a stabilizing effect on aggregate employment. On the one hand, firing costs

> 3 Bertola's analysis assumes that workers are risk-neutral. But as noted by Booth (1999), typically most workers derive their income from employment, and it is difficult for most of them to diversify across jobs; it seems therefore more plausible to assume that workers are risk averse. She also considers the case in which firms and workers bargain about both wages and the size of redundancy payments. However, these modifications do not change Bertola's main result, which is that firing costs tend to stabilize employment over the business cycle.

9
and the data disclose the date and time of each transaction, a stock identifier, order type (buy or sell), transaction price, number of shares, broker, and investor type (i.e., individuals or institutions). Transaction costs such as broker fees are not captured by the CSE.<sup>18</sup> During our sample period, trades by individual investors accounted for over seven million transactions. Importantly for our analysis, the data include the national identification number for each individual, which can be used to merge the information with the financial education initiative. Overall, 36% of the students in the CSE’s education program had at least one stock trade throughout our sample period, either before or after taking the course. These 3,960 students with some trading history are more active in the stock market than the average Colombian individual investor. For example, while the average investor in Colombia owns 2.2 different stocks, makes 1.3 stock transactions per year, and averages 7,200 USD per trade, the program students who actively trade hold 6.2 stocks, make 6.6 trades per year, and average 8,781 USD per trade.

Third, we collect additional information about students via an electronic survey. The survey had three parts: (i) socioeconomic information (i.e., age, education, academic history, and earnings); (ii) experience in financial assets (e.g., whether the individual had any foreign investments or mutual funds, which are not captured in the CSE data); and (iii) self-reported social interaction (i.e., whether they took the course with a friend or a relative and whether they talked to classmates about investment strategies during the course). The survey was sent electronically in March 2018 to 4,600 students with emails reported in the CSE data set.<sup>19</sup> To encourage participation, students who completed the questionnaire before May 30, 2018 were automatically registered for a lottery with a total payoff of 5,000,000 COP (around 1,600 USD). The response rate was 18% (842 students). According to the survey, 44% of respondents had graduate education, 17% had some type of foreign portfolio investment, and many (86%) reported having conversations about stock trading with classmates.

> 18 See Pedraza, et al., (2019) and Pedraza (2020) for additional description of the Colombian stock exchange, the transactional and portfolio data.

> 19 We tested a pilot of the survey with an ongoing class in February 2018. Follow-up interviews were carried out to confirm the interpretation of the questionnaire.

18
_Role of NGOs in Haldth Delivery Afrca Health Policy Study_ _. 4 ._ Table 1. Changes in NGO Aid In Reladion To Offcial Aid 1980 to 1986

||NGO <br>(US$ m|A;Y<br>illion)|Ocia<br>(US$ m|l Aid<br>illlon)|NGO Aida<br>of Ofic<br>(PeM|iShare<br>Si Aid<br>rent)|Percent chane<br>InNGOAid<br>In Real**Ternm**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|County|1980|1986|<br>1980|<br>1986|1980|_1986_|<br>1980|
|Australia|40|39|667|752|6.0|5.2|.5|
|Ausula|23|19|<br>178|198|12.9|9.6|*20|
|Belgum|45|23|595|549|7.6|4.2|.50|
|Canada|102|176|1,075|<br>1,695|9.5|I0.4|+68|
|Denmark|13|12|481|695|2.7|1.7|*10|
|FInnland|16|28|111|313|14.4|8.9|+70|
|France|36|84|4,162|<br>5,105|0.9|1.6|+127|
|Gernmny|421|545|3,567|3,832|11.8|14.2|+26|
|Ireland|-|20|-|62|-|32.3|-|
|Italy|3|11|683|2,403|0.4|0.5|+256|
|Japan|26|82|3,353|5,634|0.8|1.5|+206|
|<br>Netherlands|79|140|1,630|<br>1,740|48|8.0|+72<br>|
|NewZealand|7|7|72|75|9.7|9.3|.3|
|Norway|33|57|486|798|6.8|7.1|+68|
|Sweden|59|85|962|1,090|6.1|7.8|+40|
|Switzerland|63|66|253|42'|24.9|15.6|+2|
|United<br>lingdom|120|191|1,854|<br>1,750|6.5|10.9|+55|
|United<br>States|1,301|1,753|<br>7,138|9.564|18.2|1B.3|<br>+31|
|Total (avera)|2,387|3,338|27,267|<br>36,677|(8.8)|(9.1)|(+36)|

- = Not available.

a. Grants by private voluntary agencles. b. Deflated by Unrted NaUons index of dollar export unit values of developed market economies, Source: ODI 1988. Derived from data provided by the Development Assistance Comnmttee, OECD.

the political left sees NGOs' emphasis on community involvement and the small-scale nature of their activities as conducive to community mobilizadon in contrast to bureaucratized government systems of health care. The polltical right, on the other hand, sees NGOs as a way around the state, a means of increasing private Initiative and limiting state "dirigisme" (Bratton 1989). The widespread economic criss has also altered the political situation, stimulating debate over appropriate roles for the public and private sectors Irn the economy at large and health care in particular. Donors, especially, are increasingly tuming to NGOs for health care delivery in an effort to relieve the fiscal burden on govemments, a trend which is consistent with adjustment policies In many developing countries. Governments, too, in the face of declining resources and their
Despite this divergent view on the implication of South-South and North-South imported capital and intermediates for developing countries, we know little about how they affect economic transformation (here operationalized as structural change and productivity convergence) in Africa. The current paper fills this knowledge gap and by extension contributes to the burgeoning discussion on pathways to Africa’s economic transformation agenda. Our analysis relies on a panel sample comprising 44 African countries for the period 2000–2022. We assemble country-level indicators of economic transformation (i.e., structural change and productivity convergence) and imported capital and intermediate. For the latter, we use detailed bilateral trade data to identify imported capital and intermediate goods as well as distinguish these imports by their origin vis-àvis the Global North and Global South. A major empirical challenge of our analysis is endogeneity, resulting among others from reverse causality and omitted variable bias. To address this concern, we employ 2-stage least squares and rely on an instrumental variable technique that exploits exogenous changes in trading partner conditions to identify the effects of imported capital and intermediates. Our approach draws insights from <mark>Frankel and Romer (1999) and</mark> Blanchard and Olney (2017).

Overall, our results show that imported capital and intermediate goods are strong predictors of economic transformation, with imports of capital and intermediate goods from both the Global North and the Global South being equally important in this regard. However, the contribution of imported capital and intermediate goods from the Global South or the Global North to economic transformation depends on the considered channel. Imported capital and intermediate goods from the Global South play a dominant role in promoting structural change. For productivity convergence to the global best practices, however, there is a reversal of this trend with imported capital and intermediates from the Global North playing a more dominant role. Ultimately, capital and intermediate imports from the Global South or Global North to Africa appear to serve different purposes on the economic transformation agenda of the continent. As attaining any meaningful economic transformation in African countries entails that countries within the continent simultaneously achieve structural change and productivity convergence, our result calls for policies that enable African countries to tap into both the Northern and Southern markets. This also does not fully align with the nascent rhetoric of regional integration being a magic wand that unlocks Africa’s long-awaited economic transformation, even in some cases at the expense 4
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||Tite|PPR Workina Paier Serks<br>Author|Dateer|Contact|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|WPS45|State-Owned Enterprise and Public<br>Sector Deficits in Developing<br>Countrie: A Comparative<br>Statistical As<br>ment|Govidan Nair<br>Anastasioc Fiippide|Decembr 1988|L Mattheisen<br>_33757_|
|WPS46|The Management of Public ExpenditureL<br>An Evovng Bank Approach|Robert Lay|January 1989|L Matthiesen<br>33757|
|WPS47|Considerations for the Development of<br>Tax Policy Wben Capitrl is Inter-<br>nationaly Mobile|Robert F. Conrad|March 1969|L Mattheien<br>33757|
|WPS48|Do Tae Matter? A Review of the<br>Incentive and Output Effects of<br>Taxation|Jonathan Skinner|||
|WPS49|Publc Sector Pncg Policies:<br>A Review of Bank Policy and Practice|DeAnne Juliur<br>Adelaia P. Alkcbn|April 1969|L Mattheisen<br>33757|
|WPSSO|FFcal Policy and Stabilization||||
||<br>in Brazil|Ccho Luiz Martone|July 1989|L Mattheisen<br>33757|
|WPSS1|On Participating in the Intemational<br>capital Market|V.V. Bhatt|||
|WPSS2|On Financial Innovations and Credit<br>Market Evolution|V.V. Bbatt|||
|WPS53-<br>WPS60|Assigned to WDR||||