last two columns (Gsec, 3) and (Ggeo, 4) report the volatility of the pull factors, sectoral and geographical specialization respectively. The panel on the right hand side reports the co-variances. The first column (tagged 1-2) reports the covariance between the world trade growth (common factor to all countries) and the push factor (country specific). Similarly the second and third columns (tagged 1-3 and 1-4) report the covariance between world trade growth and and the pull factors (sectoral and geographical specialization, respectively). The fourth and fifth columns (tagged 2-3 and 2-4) report the covariance between the push factor and the sectoral and geographical pull factors, respectively. Finally, the last column reports the covariance between geographic and sectoral pull effects. Negative co-variances with respect to world growth indicate anti-cyclical behavior while low variability of export growth is possibly associated with a greater diversification of the export basket. We can distinguish four groups of countries.

- A first group of countries (group 1 in Table 5 – top panel), composed of Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Indonesia and India is characterized by a very low variability of export growth in volume terms. The push factor and the sectoral pull factor are anti-cyclical: those countries tend to lose market shares when world trade is dynamic and vice-versa to consolidate it when world export growth is sluggish. This is demonstrated by the negative correlation numbers for the first two columns in the panel of the covariances, which reports the covariance with their export growth and push factors and sectoral specialization, respectively. We speculate why this is the case and produce hypotheses that the interested reader may test with appropriate methodologies and data. Two hypotheses come to mind. First, these countries are predominantly commodity exporters. The observed effect may be due to price factors: when world growth is high, the price of commodities is also high. Volumes, instead, are less responsive, which would be consistent with the negative sectoral pull effects measured in volumes. The second hypothesis is about the role of the real exchange rate, which tends to appreciate for commodities’ producers driven by the higher price of commodities. An appreciated real exchange rate may hurt the overall competitiveness of the industrial sector by appreciating when world demand is high.<sup>18</sup>

- A second group of countries, composed of Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and China is characterized by a high variability of export growth due to volatile and pro-cyclical push factors, as the high numbers for the column marked with (2) suggests. Moreover, except for China (whose variability is also the lowest of the group), these countries tend to lose market shares when the demand for the products they specialize in is favorable (negative 2-3). A similar effect is also observed for Saudi Arabia and Australia.

- A third group of countries shows medium to low variability of export growth and moderately volatile and procyclical push factors. The covariances on the other hand are very weak. This group is composed of Spain, Italy, Turkey, Great Britain and France.

- Finally, a fourth group of countries, including Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Germany and the United States  is characterized by  a combination of three factors: low variability of export growth, anti-cyclical push effect (column 1-2 in the covariances panel), pro-cyclical sectoral pull factors (column 1-3). The anti-cyclical push factor indicates the ability to

> 18 In all groups, the individual countries exhibit significant deviations from the average. In the first group Canada is the only country with an acyclical sectoral pull factor. It seems also to be able to preserve its (high) market share in the US when this market is slugglish (negative covariance 2-4). Saudi Arabia and Australia tend to lose market shares when the demand for the commodities they are specialized in are surging. The opposite is true for Indonesia. India exhibits a high variability of export growth due to volatile push factor plus market shares gains when its sectoral specialization is favorable.

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