per certificate (World Bank 2006). This is consistent with West African experience with the _plans fonciers ruraux_ where a cost range of US$ 7-10 per parcel is considered as relatively inexpensive (Lavigne-Delville 2006). In Uganda, the cost of issuing certificates of customary ownership -albeit with a precision that allows their immediate conversion to title- is some US $ 40 per parcel. By all measures, and especially considering that the process followed outside of Amhara is less complex and thus cheaper, this implies that, largely because of strong local involvement, first-time registration as implemented in Ethiopia as well as the preferred, proposed option for a “second stage” certification are highly cost-effective and could provide an important benchmark for other African countries.

# **4.3 Long-term sustainability**

Although low by international standards, the cost of the process with a map is still above the level where, in line with households’ stated willingness to pay, full cost recovery will be possible. While there is agreement that the one-time establishment of a cadastral system that is then maintained independently is a public good for which public funding can be justified, this focuses attention to arrangements to update the system. In fact, lack of attention to procedures for updating of the information generated through first-time registration has undermined the sustainability of many land administration initiatives. Preventing Ethiopia from suffering the same fate will require careful scrutiny of demand and options to meet it.

To assess the size of expected demand, we note that transfers that need to be recorded are inheritances, divorces, leases beyond a certain length, and land takings for public use. Assuming that 3% of households are involved in a transfer every year (1.5% inheritances, 0.5% divorces, 0.75% long-term leases, and 0.25% land takings for public use), the average number of annual transfers to be registered would amount to 47 per kebele, 1,274 per woreda, 13,500 per zone, or 135,000 per region.<sup>39</sup> This is insufficient to make the case for computerization at the kebele suggesting that at this level manual updating of records in a way that is subsumed under the kebele administration’s regular tasks will be appropriate. However, at woreda level, it may make sense to have a dedicated person to record transfers, in addition to other tasks.

To decide at which administrative level computerization will be most appropriate, we compare the cost of an effort to computerize all woredas to that of a more selective approach. For the former, parameters from the field point towards monthly running costs per woreda of B 1,717, composed of salary (B 900) and equipment (B 817), or B 16.17 per transfer. Even if access to electricity were available in all woredas rather than only one third at present, these costs are unlikely to be sustainable in the long term. By comparison, computerizing only the 20% of woredas with the highest transaction volumes, assumed to be three times the average, could reduce costs significantly, to B 5.39 per transfer. In fact, as at current productivity levels

> 39 The region is assumed to have a population of 4.5 mn households in 10 zones, 106 woredas, and 2895 kebeles.

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