In addition to the information collected using this youth module, the analysis incorporates data from the latest rounds of nationally representative face-to-face LSMS-ISA surveys conducted in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria before the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. This inclusion allowed us to integrate respondents' demographic characteristics into our analysis.<sup>4</sup>

# **3.2. Sampling Strategy**

The ‘Youth Aspirations and Employment Module’ for High-Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) was implemented in a single round of data collection in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria from April to July 2021. The youth sample was randomly selected from households that had previously participated in HFPS rounds. Within each household, a youth respondent aged between 15-25 years was randomly chosen for the interview, and proxy respondents were not permitted. To ensure that the individual weights were representative of youth aged 15-25 years in their respective countries, household weights were adjusted using sample-based reweighting techniques.<sup>5</sup> A consistent methodology was adopted in sampling, weighting, and implementing the survey across the countries, facilitating cross-country comparisons. In the case of Nigeria, data collection occurred in April 2021. The sample comprises 52% male respondents and 48% female respondents. Among the respondents, 44% fall in the 15 to 18 years age group, 36% are aged between 19 to 22 years, and 20% are in the 23 to 25 years age bracket. Notably, male respondents tend to be younger than their female counterparts. In Malawi and Ethiopia, data collection took place in May and June 2021, and both countries reported a similar distribution of respondents by sex and age.

# **3.3. Statistical Analysis**

A set of logit regressions was used for estimating the probability of personal, household and community factors to have a significant association on the aspirations of youth aspirations for higher education (complete university degree or post-graduate studies), working on STEM-related jobs and for migrating to seek better life opportunities. The core specification is estimated for the entire sample of youth aged 15-25 years old _i_ interviewed at time _t_ =2021. The specification includes covariates captured in the LSMS-ISA pre-COVID-19 surveys denoted by the sub-index _t_ - _1_ .

A similar model is replicated for three different outcomes: educational aspirations (m=1), career aspirations (m=2), and migration aspirations (m=3). The main specification is presented as Equation 1.

> 4 The sampling frame for these phone surveys was the most recent nationally representative LSMS-supported national longitudinal household survey. This enables a methodologically sound comparison with the pre-COVID-19 survey data. This paper uses data from the latest rounds of LSMS surveys from three countries: Ethiopia (September/ December 2018 and June/August 2019), Malawi (April 2019 to March 2020), and Nigeria (July/August 2018 and January/February 2019).

> 5 For details on reweighting techniques, please consult the World Bank Guidelines on Sampling Design available at <u>https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/742581588695955271/pdf/Guidelines-on-Sampling-Design.pdf</u>

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