rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
# **1 Introduction**

Barriers to schooling have been one of the main obstacles to development across the globe. While the motivation for expanding access to schooling often relies on labor productivity gains, there are reasons to believe that a large portion of returns to such policies materialize within families and across generations. Estimating these spillover effects of education is particularly relevant not only because it affects the accounting of social returns to public investments in education, but because it may influence the design of contemporaneous policies targeting early childhood development, like those focusing on parenting and school readiness. The literature on intergenerational impacts of education is large and very active (see reviews in Holmlund, Lindahl, and Plug (2011) and Haveman and Wolfe (1995)),<sup>1</sup> but also relatively scarce for developing-country contexts where educational attainment levels are far lower.<sup>2</sup> In this paper we take steps towards filling this gap by examining the intergenerational impacts of one of the most prominent schooling-expansion interventions in the developing world, the Indonesia _Sekolah Dasar_ INPRES program of the 1970s.

We focus on the children of women originally targeted by the INPRES program and who reside in rural areas of Indonesia by the early 2010s. We focus on the expansion of maternal education given the gendered division of labor towards childrearing often found in developing country settings like those of Indonesia. Our analyses capitalize on a novel and comprehensive data set on early childhood development that is representative of rural Indonesia, allowing us to examine the impacts of the INPRES program over multiple developmental outcomes for children born to women targeted by the school construction program. Our outcomes encompass effects over health as well as cognitive and socio-emotional skills. In this way we complement and expand on re-

> 1The increased accessibility to Scandinavian registry data has led to an explosion of articles on the topic. Some of the most influential work includes the seminal article by S. E. Black, Devereux, and Salvanes (2005) and more recent iterations which exploit policy-induced variation in educational attainment among older generations such as Fischer, Karlsson, Nilsson, and Schwarz (2019) and Suhonen and Karhunen (2019). Chevalier (2004) and Dickson, Gregg, and Robinson (2016) conduct similar analysis using minimum school-age regulations in the U.K., while Maurin and McNally (2008) do so employing variation generated by the French student revolt of 1968. Work focused on the intergenerational impacts of education in the U.S. context using causal inference reasoning can be found in Currie and Moretti (2003), Oreopoulos, Page, and Stevens (2006), Carneiro, Meghir, and Parey (2013).

> 2A notable exception is Andrabi, Das, and Khwaja (2012), who focus on Pakistani women with very low levels of education and their children.

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O.A.M.D.G.

not invest but consume everything. Migration is predicted to always increase with violence, and to decrease with higher savings.

In the remainder of this paper, we want to test the predictions of the above model empirically. This will entail exploring the extent of migration and savings as functions of guerrilla and delinquent violence, as well as of income, and other individual and variables that are likely to influence the cost of migration or investment. In this context it will be particularly important to control for all factors that may influence the occurrence of violence, in order to avoid the violence variable picking up the effect of other, correlated, features.

# **DATA**

The main dataset used comes from the baseline survey to evaluate the _Familias en Acción_ program in Colombia (‘ _Familias_ dataset’), conducted in 2002 with approximately 11,500 households in 122 municipalities. Two types of surveys were applied: an extensive questionnaire for households of the lowest income stratum (i.e. registered with ‘SISBEN 1’<sup>3</sup> in December 1999) and a questionnaire to the mayor in order to obtain municipality level variables.<sup>4</sup> We merge this dataset at the municipal level with two further databases, a violence database assembled by Medina et al. (2001), and a database of municipality characteristics compiled from different official sources, like the Colombian Institute for Family Welfare (ICBF), the Planning Ministry (DNP), and the Administration of Courts (CSJ).

> 3 SISBEN 1-6, sixtiles of the population income distribution, is a basic welfare indicator routinely collected for all families in Colombia. Its level determines welfare entitlements and utility prices.

> 4 Familias covers the first income sixtile exhaustively. It is therefore not representative for Colombia as a whole, but covers the poorest households in their entirety.
are effective in terms of attracting investment. Do the benefits of investment in terms of employment, technology transfer, and so on outweigh the revenue foregone in terms of providing such incentives? Would the investment have come even without the incentives? And if, instead of attracting investment, do such incentives actually distract investment by sending the signal that the business environment (without the incentives) is poor?<sup>11</sup> Typically, any analysis of incentives, particularly those targeted to a particular location, such as the location based tax incentive or enterprise zone program (which is prominent in the U.S.) need to tackle at least three major issues. These are as follows: (i) unobserved characteristics of the location that could be correlated with plant characteristics and the incentive scheme (e.g. local taxation), (ii) plant or firm unobserved characteristics which could be correlated with location characteristics and the incentive scheme, and (iii) the endogeneity of the incentive scheme itself. The next section discusses the studies that attempt to address one or more of these problems in the developed countries, which could guide the evaluation of similar or related incentive policies in the developing countries, where there is a scarcity of such analysis.

Compiling a large panel data-set on local business tax rate and other relevant determinants for 11,000 German municipalities for the period 2001-2005, Becker et al. (2012) analyze how business tax rates effect the number of multinational enterprises (MNEs), MNE employment, and MNE fixed assets in different German municipalities. One stream of theoretical public finance literature suggests that lumpy investment, such as firm or plant location, is sensitive to profit taxation, which in turn could lead to a race to the bottom as countries have to offer a tax rate of zero in equilibrium to attract investors (see Wilson 1987, 1999 among others). In contrast, the new economic geography literature argues that there are factors generating agglomeration economies, which in turn reduce the sensitivity of location decisions of MNEs with respect to profit or capital taxation as taxes are only one factor affecting firm location (Ludema and Wooton 2000, Baldwin and Krugman 2004, Borck and Pflüger 2006). Against this backdrop, Becker et al. (2012) attempts to improve upon the previous cross-country empirical studies (that might suffer from endogeneity issues due to omitted location specific institutional characteristics

> 11 For instance, there could be little rationale for a location that otherwise have attractive features, such as infrastructure and human capital endowment, to offer a low tax rate to attract investment. Conversely, a location that suffers from various attractive features could offer tax incentive to attract investment to compensate for deficiencies in other factors that determine an investment decision. An investor would thus weigh the importance of these different attributes in its operation and then decide on choosing (or not choosing) a particular location.

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adjustment procedure to improve the information content of the balanced estimates rather than only adjusting the initial estimates mechanically. Mohr, Crown and Polenske (1987) discuss the problems encountered when the RAS procedure is used to adjust trade flow data. They point out that the special properties of interregional trade data increase the likelihood of non-convergence of the RAS procedure and propose a linear programming approach that incorporates exogenous information to override the unfeasibility of the RAS problem.

In recent years, more and more researchers have tended to formulate constrained matrix balancing problems as mathematical programming problems (var der Ploeg, 1988, Nagurney and Robinson, 1989, Bartholdy, 1991, Byron _et al_ ., 1993), with an objective function that forces "conservatism" on the process of rationalizing **X** from the initial estimate **X** . The theoretical foundation for the approach can be viewed from both the perspectives of mathematical statistics and information theory, and the solution of RAS is equivalent to constrained entropy minimization with fixed row and column totals, as shown by Bregman (1967) and McDougall (1999), and thus can be seen as a special case of the optimization methods<sup>2</sup> .

Another important advantage of mathematical programming models over scaling methods is their flexibility,. which allows a wide range of initial information to be used efficiently in the data adjustment process. Additional constraints can be easily imposed, such as allowing precise upper and lower bounds to be placed on unknown elements, inequality conditions, or incorporating an associated term in the objective function to penalize solution deviations from the initial row or column total estimates when they are not known with certainty. Therefore, it provides more flexibility to the matrix balancing procedure. This flexibility is very important in terms of improving the information content of the balanced estimates as showed by Robinson, Cattaneo and El-said (2001).

A Mathematical programming approach also permits one to routinely introduce relative degrees of reliability for initial estimates. The idea of including data reliability in matrix 5
payments, we summed the total payments made to get a comparable out‐of‐pocket expenditure measure. The median price paid was CDF 1,500, or approximately US$1.60, while the average price was CDF 2,373, or US$2.58.<sup>10</sup> Nine percent of the women received antenatal care without any out‐of‐pocket expenditure.

# 4. Wealth‐Quality Gradient

We start our investigation of the inequality in antenatal care in the DRC by comparing inequality in coverage with inequality in effective coverage, using concentration indexes (Wagstaff, Paci, and Van Doorslaer 1991). Using the household survey data, we define antenatal care to be “effective” if essential services were provided. Specifically, we consider a visit to be complete if the following services were provided: (1) blood pressure was measured; (2) blood and urine samples were taken; (3) the woman was informed about pregnancy complications; and (4) the woman was given iron supplementation.<sup>11</sup> If any of these services was not recalled, the antenatal care is defined to be ineffective. Although 82 percent of the women reported receiving antenatal care during their most recent pregnancy, only 11 percent reported receiving effective care. We calculate the concentration indexes with the recently pregnant women ranked by household wealth.

As shown in table 1, the indexes for coverage and effective coverage are significant at the 99 percent level. However, the concentration index of effective coverage, 0.179, is more than three times the concentration index in coverage, at 0.050, and significantly larger than the concentration index of 0.051 calculated for effective coverage of antenatal care in Kenya by Nguhiu, Barasa, and Chuma (2017).<sup>12</sup> Restricting our analysis to the sample of women who received any antenatal care, we proceed by comparing in more detail the quality of care received by women of different socioeconomic backgrounds. Figure 1 shows the estimated wealth gradient for each component of antenatal care separately. Of the 13 items reported in the household survey, an average of 53 percent was performed. A one standard deviation increase in wealth is associated with a 4‐percentage‐point increase in the completeness of the antenatal care exam. On average, women in the lowest decile reported that 48 percent of the items were performed, compared with women in the highest quintile, who reported that

> 10 At the time, the conversion rate was about CDF 920 per US$1.

> 11 The selection of procedures is based on Nguhiu, Barasa, and Chuma (2017), although we do not have data on prescription of intestinal parasite drugs. Their definition of coverage is conditioned on a minimum of four consultations; we define coverage as any consultation.

> 12 When we condition coverage on at least four consultations, as in Nguhiu, Barasa, and Chuma (2017), the concentration index is 0.187.

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(2005) have documented a decrease in rural poverty in India due to an expansion of bank branches in rural areas, although these findings have been questioned (Panagariya 2006 and Kochar 2011). Within the limitations of country level data, the IMF has related financial inclusion with a number of macroeconomic outcomes, including economic growth, stability and equality (Sahay et al. 2015). Their analysis suggests that financial inclusion can be positively related to these outcomes but that the relationship may depend on factors such the level of per capita income or quality of the regulatory environment. Yet, so far there is no rigorous research showing a direct impact of financial inclusion on economic growth and inequality at the country level.

One reason why the relationship between financial inclusion and inequality and macroeconomic growth is not yet well understood is data availability. Establishing such a relationship requires a sufficiently long time-series on financial inclusion measures. Analysis of the factors shaping macroeconomic growth and inequality often requires decades of data. Until very recently, data on financial inclusion on a comparable, global level have not been available, limiting the ability to assess its impact.<sup>2</sup> Data on financial inclusion collected by financial institutions have been available for select economies starting as early as 2004 as part of the IMF’s Financial Access Survey.<sup>3</sup> There was no comparable global demand-side data on financial inclusion collected from the perspective of individuals until the World Bank launched its first Global Findex database in 2011 (Demirguc-Kunt et al., 2015). Another reason the connection between financial inclusion and macroeconomic outcomes remains unclear is that national policies aimed at increasing financial inclusion are for the most part very recent, and assessing their impact on country-level growth and inequality will take time.

The paper proceeds as following: Section 2 provides a description of account ownership around the world. Section 3 discusses the evidence on the benefits of financial inclusion organized around four major types of formal financial products: payments, savings, credit, and insurance. Section 4 discusses some of the challenges to achieving greater financial inclusion and directions for future research.

> 2 See World Bank (2014) for an overview of data sources on financial inclusion. 3 https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15455.htm

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# **Introduction**

The non-state insurgent organization known as the Islamic State group (also sometimes called the Islamic State [IS], the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIL], the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham [ISIS], or Daesh, its Arabic acronym) took control of large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq beginning in mid-2013 (see map in Figure 1).<sup>1</sup> Its rapid territorial expansion began when fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) started operating in Syria in April 2013 and accelerated from early 2014 onwards when the group moved aggressively back into Iraq [28].

For a time, the group was considered the richest jihadist group in the world and was thought to raise money from a variety of sources [15]. In 2014 and 2015 revenue from oil production in areas the group controlled was often cited as its largest potential source of revenue flow, with estimates of weekly oil revenue ranging from “several million” to US$28 million [8, 5]. Any reasonable assessment of the organization’s long-run survival prospects had to account for these revenues and identify how sustainable they were [21]. Beginning in late of 2015, Daesh steadily lost territory in both Iraq and Syria, but still maintained substantial territory in both countries at of early 2017.

Remotely measuring oil production using satellite imagery provides a way to make a consistent assessment of activity that would have been useful in 2014-15 and to track developments since then with some precision. In our case, combining multi-spectral satellite imagery with available production data enables transparent and reproducible estimation of oil production in Daesh-controlled areas. We find that production levels were approximately 56,000 barrels per day (bpd) from July-December 2014, later dropped to an average of 35,000 bpd throughout 2015, before further sinking to approximately 16,000 bpd in 2016. These estimates are in line with production reported for late-2014 in captured internal Daesh documents, as we discuss in

> 1We henceforth use Daesh and Islamic State group/organization interchangeably.

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## I. **Introduction**

Mauritius, a small island economy in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Africa, has been remarkably successful in achieving rapid economic growth in the context of financial and political stability. It has been able to overcome unfavorable initial conditions and exposure to economic sectors that suffered from cyclical and structural weaknesses. This success has been attributed to the pursuit of stable macroeconomic policies and the promotion of sound and efficient institutions. The importance of the latter in explaining the strong growth performance of Mauritius has been highlighted in Subramanian and Roy (2001).

These policies have benefited many sectors of the economy, including the financial sector. They have stimulated the growth of banks as well as insurance companies and pension funds. In the pensions area, they are underscored by the creation of a well-designed multi-pillar pension system that comprises several public components, such as the Basic Retirement Pension, the National Pensions Fund, the National Savings Fund, and the Civil Service Pension Scheme, alongside a large number of occupational pension schemes.

This paper provides an overview of the development and role of occupational pension schemes in Mauritius. The main focus is on the funded schemes that have been set up by private companies and statutory bodies. However, to provide a broader context of their role and relative importance, the paper also offers a brief overview of the contractual savings market and the public provision of pensions. The various components of public provision are discussed at greater length in the Annex. The paper draws extensively on, and also complements, the recently completed World Bank study (World Bank 2001) and its background papers (Demarco 2000, Piggott and Whitehouse 2000, Rofman 2000, and Sin 2000).

The structure of the paper is as follows. Following this introductory section, section II provides a brief summary of the contractual savings market. This is followed by section Im that covers the institutional structure of the pension system, subdivided into non-occupational and occupational pension schemes. Section IV analyzes the investment and operating performance of different types of funds, while section V reviews the regulation and supervision of pension funds with particular emphasis on existing gaps and areas requiring strengthening. Section VI offers a brief evaluation of the-performance of company pension funds against a set of economic criteria and then reviews their future prospects and main policy issues. The Annex offers a more detailed discussion of the various components of public provision of pensions.

# **II. The Contractual Savings Market**

Mauntius belongs to a select group of developing countries where contractual savings (i.e., savings with insurance companies and pension funds) exceed 40'percent of GDP and represent a major potential force in the local financial system. Occupational 1
by first estimating the censoring equation directly, and then including the predicted probability of participation and its polynomials as additional controls in the test score equation.

Specifications using Heckman's selection model and the “control function approach base identification on the non-linearity of the selection equation (see Duflo, 2001, as an example). Augmenting the instrument set with potential candidates that are correlated to the probability of being tested in school but uncorrelated to the test-score can help in identification and the efficiency of the estimator. Following literature on the distance to school as a determinant of enrollment and absenteeism in Pakistan (see for instance Holmes, 2003), we propose using the distance to the closest eligible school as an additional instrument in the selection equation.

To construct this distance variable, we collected geographical coordinates of all households in the household survey as well as the coordinates of all schools in the village. We then computed straight-line distances for every household-school pair and computed the minimum distance to an eligible school, incorporating both the level of the school and its gender status (boys only, girls only or coeducational) as well as the gender of the child. The distance to the closest eligible school is a strong predictor of enrollment, and of concern for us, larger distances also make it more likely that the child was not tested in the school as part of the testing exercise.

The results from this exercise are presented in Table 5. Columns 1 presents the OLS specification; column 2 presents the results based on specifications based on the Heckman correction while Columns 3 present results using the control-function approach. As before, all specifications include a full set of dummies for mother's age as well as the birth _tehsil_ (county); in addition, we include additional controls for the age and gender of the child. We find a strong causal effect of maternal education on child-test scores in the subjects of English and Urdu, with children of mothers with some education reporting test-scores at the end of Grade III that are 0.35 standard-deviations higher than those of children whose mothers report no education at all. This impact is significant at the 1 percent level of confidence. The effects are smaller for Mathematics, and suggest a 0.25 standard-deviation boost for children with “educated” mothers; significant at the 5 percent level of confidence. These results appear to be robust to the methods used to control for selection with 20