quintile they are in. We thus assume that coverage rates by quintile are the same for subnational areas as they are for national areas. For the analysis we need to assign whether each household receives social protection or not, so households are randomly assigned social protection based on the probability of coverage.<sup>21</sup> This random assignment is implemented in each country to ensure that the survey populationweighted values from the simulated sample match the reported statistics for access to social protection in each quintile. Subnational values for each country are then calculated for this measure. The random assignment process is repeated 100 times to account for the heterogeneity of households in each subgroup. The averages of subnational indicators from the 100 simulations are used as the final estimates for each country. Given information on the education, water and electricity dimension is also present in the same survey used for poverty estimates, this process also informs the overlap between social protection and these non-monetary dimensions at household level.

For some countries the same survey is used for poverty and social protection data and these surveys are used to assess the accuracy of this approach. Appendix A1 includes the details of this comparison, and indicates that overall, the approach works well with a correlation of 80 percent between survey-based and simulated measures. However, lack of access to social protection tends to be over-estimated in the simulated results, potentially over-estimating vulnerability on this dimension. The method used to impute social protection for households in the GMD can indeed be improved beyond what is done here, but as a first estimate, the approach delivers reasonable results.

# Access to financial services

Lastly, we also consider whether a household has access to financial services. We use indicators from the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) database, drawn from nationally representative survey data of about 150,000 people in 148 economies for 2011 and 128,000 people in 123 economies for 2021 as part of the Gallup World Poll.<sup>22</sup> However not all questions are available for all countries. For both years of the Global Findex database, the target population is the entire civilian, noninstitutionalized population age 15 and older. The variable we use indicates whether a respondent has either a financial institution account or a mobile money account, given the strong relationship in the literature on access to mobile money and ability to use informal networks to manage the impact of large climate shocks. We use data from the Global Findex 2021 to overlay with the 2019 poverty data, while the equivalent indicator from the Global Findex 2011 is used to overlay with the 2010 poverty estimates.

The statistics are reported for adults living in the richest 60% and poorest 40% of households for each country.<sup>23</sup> The same method is used to overlay these with poverty (and thereby education), as is used with social protection. We do not have any information on the correlation between access to financial services and access to social protection that we can use to inform the overlap between these two dimensions of welfare at the individual level.

# Coverage

Table 4 presents an overview of data availability across the globe for all dimensions. Overall, out of the total of 218 economies, our analysis is based on a sample of 168 economies, representing 97 percent of

> 21 We use a wsample program written by Corral, P (2023) to perform the random assignment to households.

> 22Refer to Demirgüç-Kunt et al. (2022) for more information on the Global Findex Database 2021 and Demirgüç-Kunt and Klapper (2012) for more information on the Global Findex Database 2011.

> 23 The Findex database is available at <u>https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/globalfindex. We currently use the global</u> dataset but in future work the country level data could be used to generate quintile estimates and overlay in the same was as social protection.

21