7 HIC and the LIC. The reason is that, as discussed earlier, the disruption to schooling is more severe in the MIC than in other countries, even though the returns to schooling and the quantity of schooling are higher in the HIC. On impact this amounts to a one-off hit of 10 _._ 0, 16 _._ 6 and 9 _._ 2 percent of GDP in the HIC, MIC and LIC respectively, amounting to $10 _._ 45 trillion or about 12 _._ 3 percent of global GDP – 51 percent of which is borne by the HICs and 49 by the MICs. However, the peak welfare loss from schooling does not arrive until around year 19, which amounts to about $15 trillion looking ahead.

Finally, the right panel of Figure A.7 displays the ongoing cost from the disruption to employment and experience. The main cost is from the employment shock: at the beginning, the employment shock accounts for 84, 70 and 75 percent of the welfare cost going forward. That said, there is still some enduring cost from lost experience, particularly in the HIC. The losses from experience account for 52 _._ 3, 20 _._ 8 and 27 _._ 2 percent of the enduring cost of lost human capital after 10 years in the HIC, MIC and LIC respectively. The forward-looking cost of lost experience in year 10 is about 10 trillion, or 12 percent of global GDP – 81 percent of which comes from the HICs.

# **G COVID-19 Employment Shock by Gender**

The ILO (2020, p. 9) reports the decrease in activity by gender, explaining that “across all regions and country income groups, women have been affected by employment loss to a greater extent than men.” They find that “at the global level, the employment loss for women stands at 5.0 per cent in 2020, versus 3.9 per cent for men” [and 4.3 per cent for the whole society] (Kugler et al. (2021) find similar results).<sup>7</sup> As such, women were (5.0 _÷_ 3.9 - 1)*100 = 28% more impacted than men and (5.0 _÷_ 4.3 - 1)*100 = 16% more impacted than the society overall. Since the report explains that _all_ regions and country income groups were similarly impacted, and given the lack of better global data, we use these numbers to infer the employment losses of women and men for each income group. Furthermore, for selected developed and developing countries the ILO (2020, p. 16-17) reports the percentage changes in post-support labor income by gender, explaining that “women experienced greater losses in post-support labour income than men” in almost all countries. On average, women lost 15% more income than men and 10% more than society overall.<sup>8</sup> Comparing women to the overall population, we thus find that they lost 10%-16% more. To make our results more salient, we assume a larger average shock of 15%. Next, knowing the overall employment shock of each income group (e.g., 8.3%

> 7Their measurement is based on both unemployment and inactivity. As such, it does not include any reduction in working hours. However, the fact that it includes inactivity is important. The ILO (2020, p. 9) writes: “Across all regions, women have been more likely than men to become economically inactive [...].”

> 8This is the change between the first and second quarter of 2020, which is the shock that we are interested in measuring. Post-support labor income is “labour income that takes into account income support measures”. The countries in the analysis are Brazil, Italy, Peru, the UK, the US and Vietnam.