MAKING SENSE OF AFRICA’S INFRASTRUCTURE ENDOWMENT: A BENCHMARKING APPROACH

**Table 3.6 Mean deviations from predicted values, instrumental variables**

|Region|Density of<br>roads|Density of<br>roads (arable)|Density of<br>paved roads|Density of<br>paved roads<br>(arable)|Access to water|Access to<br>sanitation|Access to<br>electricity|Generating<br>capacity|Internet<br>connections|Mobile<br>telephones|Fixed-line<br>telephones|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_Subregions_|_of Africa_|||||||||||
|Central|57|–57|–63|–93|–11|–48|–58|–81|–110|–79|–44|
|EAC|11|106|–87|20|–7|–20|–39|–77|–48|–54|–60|
|ECOWAS|21|–4|–50|–59|–11|–37|–24|–81|–12|–49|–64|
|SADC|6|84|–18|85|–1|–20|–69|–38|–76|–89|–38|
|_World regio_|_ns_|||||||||||
|SSA|44|0.3|–61|–7|–10|–34|–41|–66|–50|–72|–64|
|SAS|–31|–53|–11|215|20|–42|–8|–51|–108|–118|40|
|EAP|32|31|–47|–42|–8|–1|24|–29|–29|–24|–34|
|ECA|–25|–43|173|57|12|38|81|167|–10|27|105|
|LAC|14|–34|–62|–62|1|34|–1|16|–14|–26|26|
|MNA|29|9|–14|–45|5|36|42|–11|–11|–10|29|

Note: SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa, SAS = South Asia, EAP = East Asia and Pacific, ECA = Europe and Central Asia, LAC = Latin America and Caribbean, MNA = Middle East and North Africa.

Relative to the levels predicted by the instrumental variables model, Africa performs well in total road density (paved and unpaved). In the remaining sectors, it performs significantly below the levels predicted based on the region’s economic, demographic, and structural characteristics. In fact, it is the worst-performing world region (that is, the region with the largest negative deviation as shown in table 3.6) in access to electricity, electrical generating capacity, and density of fixed-line telephones. Africa also exhibits large negative deviations in paved road density, sanitation access, mobile telephone density, and Internet density.

Once historic and environmental factors are taken into account and steps are taken to control for the endogeneity of per capita GDP, the relative standing of Africa’s subregions is not as clear cut as it first appeared. The initial comparison of infrastructure stock indicators by subregions (see table 1.3) revealed a very clear ranking: SADC was the top performer on all dimensions and EAC the worst performer on nearly all dimensions, with Central Africa and ECOWAS somewhere in between. The picture is more nuanced once the regions are compared in terms of the magnitude of their deviation from benchmarks.

Except in road density (paved and unpaved densities and arable paved density), every African subregion underperformed relative to its expected value in every infrastructure sector. This underachievement is most severe in Central Africa, which exhibits the largest average negative deviation in Africa in water access, sanitation access, electricity generation capacity, and Internet density. While SADC—like the other African subregions—performs worse than predicted by the model in nearly every sector, its deviation from expectations is less great than that of other subregions, with the exception of electricity access and mobile telephone density, where it ranks last. ECOWAS and ECA generally fall somewhere between SADC and Central Africa, although ECOWAS exhibits the largest negative deviation in density of fixed-line telephones and ECA ranks last in paved road density.

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