O.A.M.D.G.

|**Dependent Variable**|S|avings r|ate||Share of emigrat|ed hous|ehold mem|bers|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Income definition**|(1)||(2)||(1)||(2)||
||**Coeff**|**z-stat**|**Coeff**|**z-stat**|**Coeff**|**z-stat**|**Coeff**|**z-stat**|
|_Violence_|||||||||
|public order problem|-0.530|-0.96|0.467|1.41|0.026|0.91|0.016|0.55|
|guerrilla attack rate|-0.419<br>**|-2.18|-0.270<br>***|-3.32|-0.005|-0.39|-0.005|-0.42|
|(guerrilla attack rate)2|0.017<br>*|1.78|0.016<br>***|3.75|0.001|0.9|0.001|1.02|
|homicide rate|0.031<br>***|2.63|-0.004|-0.80|0.002<br>**|2.45|0.001|**<br>2.06|
|(homicide rate)2|-1.17E-04 **|-2.18|7.29E-06|0.27|-9.81E-06 ***|-3.26|-8.76E-06|***<br>-2.62|
|_Municipality controls_|||||||||
|grouped settlement|-0.180|-0.35|-0.406<br>**|-2.13|0.002|0.14|0.021|1.12|
|<br>rural sparse settlement|0.496|0.86|-0.062|-0.24|-0.008|-0.42|0.0001|-|
|Oriental Region|-0.860|-1.09|0.745<br>**|2.49|-0.055<br>*|-1.75|-0.056|*<br>-1.70|
|Central Region|-0.786|-0.53|0.737<br>*|1.64|-0.039|-1.24|-0.023|-0.73|
|Pacific Region|-0.386|-0.37|-0.800<br>*|-1.80|-0.075<br>**|-2.19|-0.099|***<br>-2.81|
|altitude|-0.001|-0.66|-0.001|-0.90|0.00003|0.46|0.00004|0.73|
|altitude2<br>|4.29E-07<br><br>|0.89<br>|6.98E-08<br>|0.21<br>|1.99E-10<br><br>|0.01<br>|-5.97E-09<br>|-0.26<br>|
|percentage of people lowest two strata|3.497<br>***|2.90|0.209|0.38|0.115<br>**|2.01|0.082|1.29|
|index of quality of life|-0.2322<br>*|-1.76|0.109<br>*|1.64|-0.004|-0.88<br>|-0.007<br>|-1.35|
|capture rate|-0.0007|-1.00|0.0003|0.75|-4.44E-05 *|-1.45|-3.75E-05|-1.14|
|_Household/ head variables_|||||||||
|<br>age|0.187|1.28|-0.006|-0.23|0.015<br>***|3.54|0.010|**<br>2.11|
|age2|-0.002|-1.34|-0.0004|-1.25|-0.0001<br>***|-2.77|-0.00005|-0.94|
|married|0.571<br>**|2.28|-0.478<br>***|-3.26|0.034<br>**|2.21|0.005|0.33|
|female|-4.556<br>***|-6.03|-2.450<br>***|-9.19|0.107<br>***|6.14|0.135|***<br>5.97|
|total consumtion|||||||||
|p<br>total consumption2|||||||||
|<br>some or complete primary education|1.046<br>**|2.07|-0.014|-0.08|-0.031<br>*|-1.66|-0.025|-1.12|
|some secondar or more education|0562|085|0271<br>*|148|-0051<br>*|-172|-0051<br>*|-154|
|y<br>employed|.|.|.|.|.|.|.|.|
|self-employed or employer|||||||||
|constant|-1.918|-0.34|-3.727<br>*|-1.98|-0.834<br>***|-5.24|-0.692|***<br>-4.28|
|_Wald tests_|||||||||
|guerrilla attack rate (p-value)|||||||||
||003||0||07||068||
|guerrilla attack rate2 (p-value)|.||||.||.||
||0.08||0||0.37||0.31||
|homicide rate (p-value)|001||042||001||004||
|<br>homicide rate2 (p-value)|.<br>0.03||.<br>0.79||.<br>0.001||.<br>0.01||
|violence variables (p value)|||||||||
||0.02||0.0002||0.01||0.09||
|welfare indicators ( value)|||||||||
|p|0.02||0.25||0.03||0.07||
|access of the state (p value)|0.28||0.001||0.09||0.04||
|Log likelihood|-30,366.60||-18,253.63||-1,954.42||-1,538.53||
|Number of obs|7500||6173||7500||6173||
|Sample|full||waged only||full||waged only||

# Results-Table 5: Coefficient estimates from a seemingly unrelated regression of migration and savings, specification excluding employment status and total consumption

Note: _Dependent variables are the % of emigrated household members, and the savings rate calculated as (income – consumption) as a % of income. Both regressions are Tobit, allowing for individual error correlation across the two decisions in a SUR. Standard errors are robust, adjusted for clustering on municipality. Income definition (1) is salary + estimated asset income, income definition (2) is salary only. Columns 1 and 3 come from a full sample, columns 2 and 4 from a sample with waged people only. Default household education level is ‘none’. Default region is Atlantic; default rurality degree is ‘urban’. Stars mark significance at the 10% (*), 5% (**) and 1% (***) levels._ _The Wald tests (chi2) examine first whether simple or squared terms of the two main violence variables can be excluded, and then the joint significance of groups of variables in both specifications, in this order of the violence variables: public order problem, attack rate, homicide rate; of the welfare indicators: the index of quality of life and the share of population in the lowest two income sixtiles; of the variables indicating access of the state: rurality, region, altitude and capture rate, respectively._ We recognize most results. Savings react to guerrilla violence in a significant U-shape, while the homicide rate counteracts the decision to a small degree, reflecting the investment shift towards higher paying fixed assets under common delinquency. The result is robust to income definition, and to defining very high violence municipalities as