equity surges (53 percent). Accordingly, the share of equity-driven surges in net inflows is greater than or equal to 50 percent for both industrial and developing countries.

Finally, Figure 4 depicts the evolution of gross surges from 1970-99 to 2000-11. Figure 4.1 shows that gross surges have increased sharply over the last decade: 30 percent of the episodes took place in 1970-99 whereas the remaining 70 percent occurred in the last decade. Figure 4.2 also shows that the share of episodes taking place among industrial countries as a share of the total has increased over the last decade —from nearly 20 to 30 percent of total episodes. On the other hand, there is a greater frequency of equity-driven surges as this proportion has increased from 10% in 1970-99 to almost 20% in 2000-11.

# _Duration and amplitude of surges in gross capital inflows_

Table 2 presents the average duration and median amplitude of the episodes of surges in gross inflows —based on the CDMN definition. We present these statistics for the full sample of countries as well as for those of industrial and developing economies. The duration of surges in gross inflows is similar across country groups over time. Comparing the period 1970-99 with 2000-11, the differences are negligible. For instance, the duration of surges decreased from an average of 3.7 quarters in 1970-99 to 3.6 quarters in the period 2000-11. Over the period 19702011, surges tend to last 3.5 quarters among industrial countries while the average duration of surges for developing countries is 3.6 quarters.

Next, we compute the median amplitude of surges in gross inflows, as well as selected percentiles of the distribution of surges —specifically, the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentile (that is, bottom and top quartile). The amplitude of those surges for the representative country over the period 1970-2011 is nearly 1.3 times as much as its standard deviation while the range of fluctuation of the depth of surges is the 25<sup>th</sup> and 75<sup>th</sup> percentiles of the amplitude of the surge are 1.1 and 1.5 times as much as their standard deviation, respectively. On the other hand, the median amplitude of the surges in gross inflows among industrial countries is 1.3 times as much as its standard deviation while that of developing countries is 1.2 times. In both country groups, we find that the amplitude of the surge has somewhat increased. For instance, it grew from 1.2 to 1.3 times as much as the standard deviation for developing countries from 1970-99 to 2000-11.

# _Surges in gross inflows and boom-bust financial cycles_

Table 3 shows the percentage of gross inflow surges that coincide with lending booms. Although there is no single method to identify lending booms, we use the criteria of both Mendoza and Terrones (2008, 2012) and Gourinchas, Valdes and Landarretche (2001), which we now call MT-booms and GVL-booms respectively. As inflows of foreign capital can help predict the likelihood of credit booms (see Calderón and Kubota, 2012), we find that on average 16 percent of gross surges tend to coincide with the MT-lending boom. However, that share in terms of the likelihood to the total episodes increases sharply to approximately 40 percent when using the GVL-booms. Our findings based on the GVL definition of booms find that the percentage of 13