# **_3. What may have caused the rise in sex-selection in this region?_**

The rise in sex-selection in the South Caucasus countries began after the dissolution of the USSR, and is not evidenced in the 30 years preceding that (Figure 1). This suggests that it was triggered by the sudden and severe disruptions accompanying the dissolution. This is consistent with the pattern in other regions with strong underlying son preference, where the manifestation of son preference rises when people face severe stresses that force them to make hard choices about which children to raise (Figure 4). And the region’s low levels of fertility add to the mix by limiting the number of “throws of the dice” possible before having the desired son.

## **_3.1 The disruptions following the dissolution of the USSR_**

The dissolution of the USSR in December 1991 caused enormous disruption.<sup>10</sup> The economies of the USSR had been closely integrated, and the disruption of these ties led to a sharp economic contraction in all the CIS countries. The contraction was especially severe in the South Caucasus region (Figure 5). Transfers from the Soviet Union also ended. During the Soviet era, <mark>“guaranteed employment, generous public transfers, largely free and universal social services, and subsidies on food, housing, utilities and other necessities meant that income poverty rarely translated into severe deprivation. However, poverty appears to have increased substantially during the 1990s, mainly as a result of the dramatic economic collapse.” (World Bank 1997: online summary).</mark> Jobs which people had expected to have for life suddenly dissolved, along with many subsidies such as for fuel. Safety nets were sharply affected (World Bank 1996). Other basic services such as health services were also sharply affected, though they were gradually built up again.

Taking the health sector as an example, under the USSR the population was guaranteed free medical assistance and had access to a comprehensive range of secondary and tertiary health care (World Bank 2003: 109). A plunge in spending brought the public health care sector near collapse, contributing to sharply increased incidence of malaria and tuberculosis in Armenia and Georgia during the 1990s (World Bank 2003:109-110).

One example of the difficulties faced in basic services is that education and health services in Armenia became increasingly privatized and fee-based in the 1990s, with inadequate support for the poor to access health services (World Bank 2003:109-120).

The dissolution of the USSR triggered a sharp drop in GDP per capita in almost all the CIS countries (Figure 5). The pressures facing the South Caucasus region may have been greater than those facing other parts of the CIS, since this region experienced an especially sharp economic squeeze in the mid-1990s (Figure 5). This accentuated the economic stress caused by the disruption of the Soviet Union’s social insurance and social protection mechanisms. By comparison the drop in GDP per capita with the global financial crisis that started in 2008 appears small (Figure 5).

The dissolution was also accompanied by a large volume of forced migration and internally displaced people, as the newly-formed countries of the South Caucasus re-organized themselves 6