fluctuations helps reveal long-term trends of variables, such as GDP series. The availability of a long time series of the Argentinian GDP (1961-2022) that far exceeds the period analyzed allows for a more precise estimation of the cycle.<sup>23</sup> This study explicitly addresses the direct impact of commodity export taxes on the structural budget balance. Export taxes on food products are tied to global commodity prices. Accordingly, when these prices soar, the governments’ tax revenues increase, immediately improving their fiscal position. It is worth noting that second round effects from a spike in commodities prices boosting the agricultural production and exports, are not being captured by this approach, as this exercise focuses exclusively on direct tax revenue stemming from export duties. These sources of taxation are not commonly used but are particularly relevant in a few commodities-reliant developing countries. Thus, several studies recalculate the receipts from these sources of taxation by applying a long-term price adjustment related to the commodities exported by the country under analysis (Marcel et al., 2001; Alberola & Montero, 2008; Basco et al., 2007; Daude, 2010). This study considers export duties generated by commodities exports, thus leaving aside export duties applied to non-commodities products.

From (5) we can account for the impact of commodities prices through the receipts obtained from export duties. We define structural revenues related to commodities ( Re<sup>s</sup> ) from the following equation where Re are the export duties obtained strictly from commodity products, p<sup>l</sup> is the long-run price of commodities and p is the spot price of commodities. Price elasticity γ is considered to be unitary following the approach of Marcel et al. (2001), Zettelmeyer & Hollar (2008), and Daude et al. (2010).

Argentina introduced export duties after the 2002 crisis to capitalize on the devaluation of the currency among other considerations. This source of taxation was typically used in the past as an emergency source of funding during a balance of payment crisis. The sharp devaluation of the peso in early 2002 and its potential impact on domestic prices was an opportunity to establish an export tax on all products, with heterogeneous tax rates: higher for the main agri-food export products and oil, and lower for processed products such as heavy manufactures. **Figure 20** shows the evolution of export duties as a share of the GDP, discriminating between those arising from commodities and non-commodities sources. As observed, the increase of global commodities prices during the 2000s contributed to raising tax revenues from this source. Notably, the 2008 peak of export duties, contributing to fiscal revenue with almost 3 percent of GDP, matches the first boom peak in the so-called commodities super-cycle.

To understand the impact of export duties on public accounts, long-term prices of commodities are considered. We follow Marcel et al. (2001) and Zettelmeyer & Hollar (2008) assuming a unitary elasticity price of the exports and adjusting the revenues applying the long-term price of the exports considered.

prominently in developing countries. It is also worth considering that in unstable economies like the Argentinian, the concept of potential output that points to the use of the full capacity of production factors loses some clarity (Alberola & Montero, 2006). 23 Real GDP series for Argentina is constructed based on ONP 2004, Ferreres, and current INDEC data.