||_Table14:Additionalre_<br>_univrsal primaryenroll_|_sources neededtoa_<br>_entinfourAfrican_|_chieve_<br>_countries_|
|---|---|---|---|
||No.ofchildren|Enrollmentrate|Additionalno.of<br>childrenenrolledfor<br>UPE|
|A|1,244,003|0.4|746,402|
|B|1,223,956|_0.55_|550,780|
|C|1,770,072|0.3|1,239,050|
|DI|1,509,360|0.62|573,557|
|Total|5,747,391||3,109,789|

# _Gender equality_

The estimate for meeting the 2005 gender equality target in secondary education is $3 billion. It was arrived at by assuming constant average costs for enrollment and then increasing the numbers of girls in school so that the ratio of girls to boys would be 1:1 by 2005. The basic underlying assumption for this estimation is that the progress towards the goal achieved in the 1990s will continue into 2005. In order to capture this assumption-and calculate only the additional resources needed to attain the goal--we fit a simple trend line for all outcome indicators to forecast actual targets that would be reached if the 1990s trends continued. The projected actual is then compared against the global target to see by how much each region falls short of the targets. If a region's performance is projected to exceed the global goal, the additional cost of achieving the goal is regarded as zero. Otherwise, the difference between the global target and the projected actual target would be multiplied by the relevant projected average annual population _and_ the cost per unit to arrive at the additional spending required to meet the goal 19 Note that, while these cost estimates refer to additional resource requirements, they are based on average-cost calculations. -lence they are likely to understate the incremental costs of reaching the gender-equality target. Furthermore, they do not take into account the quality of education - a problem alluded to in the treatment of the universal primary education goal.

## _Health_

One of the characteristics of the development goals, such as the goal of reducing under-five child mortality, is that they are not only targets to be met, but also robust indicators of a country's economic and social development. Countries experiencing economic growth and implementing successful poverty reduction strategies will usually see improvements in access to education, basic health care, income levels of the poor, access to potable water and other improvements in living standards which affect child mortality. However, the fact that so many factors affecting health indicators are not in the health sector makes estimating the cost of attaining the health goals very difficult. Inefficient delivery of public health services in developing countries also contributes to the difficulty of linking health expenditures and improvements in health outcomes.

There are health interventions, however, which can be identified as critical inputs to attaining the health goals, and which then lend themselves to cost estimates. In the case of infant mortality

> U9 unit costs per pupil were obtained from UNICEF for 1998 and adjusted for inflation over the period 1998-2000. It is also assumed that the unit cost of educating a girl is the same as the unit cost of educating a boy. Projected annual number of school age boys (ages 5-14) for each region was obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Census, International Data Base, and a simple average was used to annualize the costs.

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