**Table 3.3. Estimation results with region and country fixed effects**

||**1**<br>**CDS**<br>**spread**|**2**<br>**CDS**<br>**spread**|**3**<br>**CDS**<br>**spread**|**4**<br>**CDS**<br>**spread**|**5**<br>**Sov.**<br>**rating**|**6**<br>**Sov.**<br>**rating**|**7**<br>**Sov.**<br>**rating**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Public investment (share of GDP)|-0.747|-0.919|-3.471|-4.501|-5.628|-13.788**|<br>-15.551***|
||(1.743)|(2.127)|(3.283)|(3.563)|(4.825)|(5.812)|(5.240)|
|PIQ-F|-1.833***<br>|-1.976***<br>|||-3.623**<br>|||
||(0.434)|(0.596)|||(1.388)|||
|PIQ-F × Public investment (share of GDP)|-21.312**|-23.865**|||-72.451**|||
||(9.708)|(11.412)|||(36.133)|||
|PIQ-D|||-0.540|-0.980||-2.169**|-0.693|
||||(0.745)|(0.719)||(0.875)|(0.765)|
|PIQ-D × Public investment (share of GDP)|||-29.189|-43.299*||-47.036**|<br>-8.420|
||||(21.517)|(22.455)||(22.001)|(18.148)|
|General government gross debt, percent of GDP|0.010***|0.014**|0.010|0.017|0.045***|0.049***|<br>0.049***|
||(0.004)|(0.006)|(0.011)|(0.012)|(0.008)|(0.010)|(0.010)|
|Total reserves (percent of GDP)|0.002|-0.001|-0.019*|-0.012|-0.018|-0.017|-0.039*|
||(0.004)|(0.004)|(0.009)|(0.010)|(0.014)|(0.015)|(0.020)|
|Exchange rate (LCU per USD), log|-0.008|0.017|1.164*|1.300***|0.101|0.045|1.382***|
||(0.024)|(0.035)|(0.570)|(0.457)|(0.095)|(0.098)|(0.513)|
|Inflation, consumer prices (percent)|0.040***|0.036***|0.010|0.002|0.082***|0.057|-0.014|
||(0.012)|(0.013)|(0.011)|(0.013)|(0.018)|(0.038)|(0.017)|
|Real GDP growth (percent)|-0.021|0.010|-0.019|-0.009|-0.007|-0.021|-0.004|
||(0.013)|(0.016)|(0.011)|(0.010)|(0.025)|(0.036)|(0.017)|
|Real GDP per capita, log|-0.960***|-1.026***|-1.568**|-1.206|-2.807***|-3.035***|-4.537***|
||(0.242)|(0.291)|(0.706)|(0.862)|(0.310)|(0.407)|(1.053)|
|Current account balance (percent of GDP)|0.001|0.006|-0.032***|-0.029***|<br>-0.033*|-0.044|-0.006|
||(0.008)|(0.016)|(0.009)|(0.008)|(0.018)|(0.027)|(0.013)|
|Systemic banking crisis DV|0.903***|1.110***|1.404***|1.447**|0.260|0.355|0.478|
||(0.242)|(0.217)|(0.374)|(0.616)|(0.604)|(0.837)|(0.361)|
|Currency crisis DV|0.247<br>|0.149<br>|-0.234<br>|-0.130<br>|0.451<br>|-0.027<br>|0.154<br>|
||(0.191)|(0.135)|(0.153)|(0.174)|(0.389)|(0.377)|(0.178)|
|Debt crisis DV|0.888|0.906|1.664**|1.787*|2.524*|2.935|1.096***|
||(0.731)|(0.756)|(0.727)|(0.874)|(1.428)|(2.236)|(0.381)|
|Debt restructuring DV|0.884***|0.839***|||1.614|0.855|-0.579|
||(0.263)|(0.214)|||(1.060)|(2.946)|(0.597)|
|Domestic credit to private sector, percent of GDP||-0.001||-0.000||||
|||(0.003)||(0.007)||||
|Total natural resources rents (percent of GDP)||-0.005||0.025||||
|||(0.010)||(0.017)||||
|Real net ODA received, log||-0.096||0.031||||
|||(0.076)||(0.059)||||
|Constant|12.888***|15.173***|14.749**|9.349|32.664***|34.616***|42.851***|
||(2.062)|(3.440)|(6.378)|(7.777)|(2.585)|(3.245)|(8.664)|
|Region FE|yes|yes|no|no|yes|yes|no|
|<br>Country FE|no|no|yes|yes|no|no|yes|
|Year FE|yes|yes|yes|yes|yes|yes|yes|
|Observations|508|373|224|173|1,072|490|486|
|Adj. R-sq|0.600|0.628|0.854|0.869|0.598|0.634|0.942|

_Source:_ Authors’ estimations.

_Note:_ *, **, *** indicate statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively. Country-level clustered standard errors are in parentheses.

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