INTRODUCTION XXiX and More Developed Table 8 Fertility and Mortality Rates for the World and Less Developed Countries, 1985-2030

|||W|orld|||Less|devel|oped||More|devel|oped||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Period|CBR|TFR|CDR|e(O)|IMR|CBR TFR|CDR|eCO) IMR|CBR|TFR|CDR|e(O)|IMR|
|1985-1990|27.1|3.43|9.7|64.9|70|31.0 3.92|<br>9.6|62.1 78|14.7|1.90|9.9|74,1|15|
|1990-199r|5 25.8|3.23|9.1|66.1|62|29.1 3.61|<br>8.9|63.6 69|13.9|1.86|<br>9.7|74.8|13|
|1995-2000|<br>24.1|3.05|8.6|67.1|55|27.0 '.34|<br>8.4|64.9 61|13.2|1.85|<br>9.6|75.5|12|
|2000-2005|<br>22.6|2.91|8.3|68.2|48|25.0 3.13|<br>7.9|66.2 32|12.9|1.89|10.0|76.0|10|
|2005-2010|<br>21.4|2.78|8.3|68.7|45|23.4 2.95|<br>7.8|i6.9 49|12.8|1.93|10.5|76.2|10|
|2010-2015|<br>20.4|2.66|<br>8.3|69.2|41|22.1 2.79|<br>7.8|67.7 45|12.8|1.97|10.8|76.5|10|
|2015-2020|<br>19.6|2.57|<br>8.4|69.9|38|21.0 2.66|<br>7.8|68.5 42|12.6|2.00|11.2|76.7|10|
|2020-2025|<br>18.7|2.48|<br>8.4|70.6|35|19.9 2.55|<br>7.8|69.3 38|12.5|2.03|11.6|77.0|<br>9|

Note: Crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CDR) are per 1000 population; total fertility rates (TFR) are per woman 15-49 years of age; life expectancy at birth, etO), is given in years; and infant mortality rates (IER) are per 1000 live births. (See definitions in world Bank 1989.)

# deliberate intervention to lower fertility.

Figures 15 and 16 show that these assumptions about total fertility are close to those used by the U.N. and those used in the previous edition of these projections. Estimates of current fertility agree across the different projection exercises. For less developed countries, the current assumed trend initiall; matches the previous trend, and then slows down relative to it. This slower decline takes into account evidence that fertility changes slowly, even when transition has started, in regions like South Asia. For more developed countries, the current trend allows fertility to stay below replacement longer than the previous trend or the U.N. trend.

The assumed declines in mortality are also significant, though they will have less effect on population growth. Life expectancy at birth in the world as a whole is projected to increase five-and-a-half years by 2025, with a greater gain in less developed countries (seven years) than in more developed countries.(three years). The gap in life expectancies between less developed and more developed countries will diminish but stay substantial; it is now 12 years, and will be eight years by 2025. Some differences among continents will also shrink, but remain large. Life expectancy in Africa is now 53, as contrasted with life expectancy of 73 in Europe and the U.S.S.R. By 2025, life expectancy in Africa should be considerably extended to 64, but this will still be a dozen years shorter than life expectancy in Europe.

Figures 17 and 18 compare assumed trends in different projection exercises. Because judgments for individual countries differ, the current base estimates of life expectancy are slightly higher than those assumed by the U.N. The current assumed trend involves less rapid improvement than the U.N. trend, particularly at higher levels of life expectancy. This is partly due to the imposed maxima for life expectancy (82.5 for women and 75.8 for men), which are lower than those imposed by the U.N. (87.5 for women and 82.5 for men). It is also partly due to the long-run nature of these projections, which requires that gains in life expectancy be sprcad out over a longer period of time.