|the dependent<br>he World Bank<br> and time fxed<br> are winsorized<br>t the results of<br> average sector<br>proval quarters<br>ns 4-7 exclude<br>umn 9 includes<br>position of the<br>try; Column 10<br>ountry-level are<br>(11)<br>No winsor<br>3.5905**<br>(1.5000)<br>1,648<br>0.0999<br>YES<br>YES|
|---|
|egressions, <br>ents from t<br>de country <br>d variables <br>d 3 presen<br>ts and the <br>xcludes ap<br>ity. Colum<br>efects; Col<br>rrency com<br>ucing coun<br>d at the c<br>(10)<br>Oil*timeFE<br>3.5351**<br>(1.2960)<br>1,648<br>0.1415<br>YES<br>YES<br>**ecifications**|
|Across all r<br>y disbursem<br>) and inclu<br>posit and ai<br>olumns 2 an<br> commitmen<br>d measure e<br> for exogene<br>-year fxed <br>iven the cu<br> an oil prod<br>rors clustere<br>(9)<br>E<br>Forex<br>3.3095***<br>(1.1264)<br>1,648<br>0.1029<br>YES<br>YES<br>**Other sp**|
|ifcations. <br> is quarterl<br>ot reported<br>ise, the de<br>umn 1); C<br>t-level aid <br>redicted ai<br>n the case<br>des country<br>ovements g<br> for being <br>tandard er<br>(8)<br>country-year F<br>3.2902*<br>(1.8955)<br>1,648<br>0.2419<br>YES<br>YES|
|les and spec<br>e of interest <br> in GDP (n<br>ated otherw<br>able 2, Col<br>ed on projec<br>umn 2 the p<br> to strengthe<br>umn 8 inclu<br>ange rate m<br> an indicator<br> deposits. S<br>(7)<br>NoFinCrisis<br>3.5594***<br>(1.1904)<br>1,511<br>0.1024<br>YES<br>YES|
|ying samp<br>ory variabl<br>age change<br> Unless st<br>valent to T<br>ulated bas<br>ext. In col<br>al quarter <br>tively. Col<br> from exch<br> trend and <br>ge in haven<br>(6)<br>NoDisaster<br>3.6013***<br>(1.2369)<br>1,586<br>0.1043<br>YES<br>YES<br>**th other shocks**|
|ons with var<br>he explanat<br>erly percent<br>in log-levels.<br>ession (equi<br>hich is calc<br> the main t<br>r the approv<br>crises respec<br>ts following <br>en the time <br>entage chan<br>(5)<br>NoCoup<br>3.4464***<br>(1.1601)<br>1,618<br>0.0996<br>YES<br>YES<br>**Omit periods wi**|
|m regressi<br>osits and t<br> the quart<br> diference <br>aseline regr<br>icted aid w<br>escribed in<br>uarter afte<br> fnancial <br>ven deposi<br>tion betwe<br>rized perc<br>(4)<br>NoWar<br>2.7544**<br>(1.2959)<br>1,386<br>0.1068<br>YES<br>YES|
|**tness.** The table shows results fro<br>terly percentage change in haven dep<br>ual GDP. All regressions control for<br> changes are approximated with the <br> percentile. Column 1 shows the b<br>hich aid is instrumented using pred<br>temporal disbursement patterns as d<br>also excludes the frst and second q<br>th wars, coups, natural disasters and<br>resses the mechanical increase in ha<br>ted); Column 10 includes an interac<br> as dependent variable the non-winso<br> p_<_0.01, ** p_<_0.05, * p_<_0.1)<br>(1)<br>(2)<br>(3)<br>Baseline<br>exclude 1 quart<br>exclude 3 quart<br>3.3913***<br>2.5947***<br>2.8483*<br>(1.1541)<br>(1.0035)<br>(1.5639)<br>1,648<br>1,648<br>1,648<br>0.1006<br>0.0051<br>0.0051<br>YES<br>YES<br>YES<br>YES<br>YES<br>YES<br>**Instrument aid**|
|**Table 3: Robus**<br>variable is the quar<br>as a fraction of ann<br>efects. Percentage <br>at the 1st and 99th<br>IV regressions in w<br>and region specifc <br>for; in column 3 it <br>country-quarters wi<br>a variable that exp<br>deposits (not repor<br>shows results using <br>in parentheses (*** <br>Aid (%GDP)<br>Observations<br>R-squared<br>country FE<br>time FE|

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