Bigsten and Söderbom, 2006 or Isham et al., 2005 for an overview).<sup>3</sup> Second, if women have the opportunity to shift to the service sector, the demand for female labor need not decrease. Women are overrepresented in sales and services in SSA, but underrepresented in production and manufacturing, as shown by data from ILO’s Key Indicators of the Labour Market database (ILO, 2011).

The effects of natural resource extraction on the local economy are often described in terms of linkages and multipliers (e.g., Eggert, 2002; Aragon and Rud, 2013b). Local multipliers describe the effect of an employment increase in one sector on employment in other sectors. Moretti (2010) shows that an increase in the production of tradable goods leads to increased local demand for non-tradables as the number of workers and their salaries increase. However, the multipliers for tradables depend on local changes in labor costs, since tradable goods have prices set nationally or internationally (Moretti, 2010; Moretti and Thulin, 2013).

The strand of literature on linkages and multipliers argue for positive local employment effects. If the multipliers are small, we will find economically and statistically insignificant effects. Such findings would support the traditional view of mineral mines as having few or no linkages to the local community. This “enclave” theory was first hypothesized by Hirschman (1958) and became a stylized fact in the second part of the last century (UNECA, 2011). There is limited empirical evidence for this theory. The coal mining boom of the 70’s in the US resulted in modest local employment spillovers but increasing wage rates (Black et al., 2005), and contemporary oil and gas booms in the US has increased district employment levels (Allcott and Keniston, 2014). A study of local welfare effects around the world’s second largest gold mine in Peru found support for the enclave hypothesis, in absence of policies for local procurement of goods (Aragón and Rud, 2013b).

If the multiplier effects are stronger, we expect an increase in male and female labor force participation with female employment concentrated in services and sales and male employment concentrated in manual labor, reflecting the gender segregation in the Sub-Sahara African labor markets. Qualitative studies have found that women dominate the provision of goods and services around mines in Africa (Hinton, 2006; ILO, 1999), while they are not much engaged in the mining sector directly.<sup>4</sup> Spillover effects on the tradable sector are less likely to substantially affect the demand for female labor because women are not strongly represented in the tradable sector, including manufacturing and construction.

The effect on labor supply in agriculture is _a priori_ ambiguous. A mine expansion can change local agriculture through a variety of channels: competition over land use, expropriation and changes in land prices (UNECA, 2011), pollution (Aragon and Rud, 2013a), intra-household reallocation of labor including substitution effects, and demand changes for agricultural goods.

A novelty of the present paper is that it connects production data on 874 industrial mines

> 3Fafchamps and Söderbom (2006) use data from nine Sub-Saharan African countries and find that the proportion of female workers is only 12 percent in manufacturing firms. The manufacturing sector in SSA has also been found to be largely non-tradable, perhaps due to a long history of import restrictions on manufactured goods (Torvik, 2001), which would reduce potential Dutch disease effects.

> 4One notable exception is artisanal and small scale-mining activities such as grinding, sieving etc.; i.e., activities confined to traditional mining activities. In both small- and large-scale mining, women rarely go underground into pits, for which there are often taboos and stigmas (ILO, 1999).

2