rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Policy Research Working Paper 7372

# **Abstract**

This paper uses three waves of longitudinal data to examine the impact of expanding access to preschool services in rural areas of Indonesia on two cohorts of children. One cohort was children aged 4 at the start of the project and was immediately eligible for project-provided services when they began operation in 2009. The other cohort was children aged 1 at the start of the project and became eligible for project-provided services two years later. The paper presents intent-to-treat estimates of impact in the short term (first year of the project) and medium term (three years after the project started), using experimental and quasi-experimental methods. For the cohort of 4-year-olds, while the magnitude of the enrollment impact is similar across children from different backgrounds, the impact on child outcomes is larger for children from more disadvantaged backgrounds in the short and medium terms. However, for this cohort of children, it seems that project-provided playgroups encouraged substitution away from existing kindergartens, suggesting that future interventions should incorporate such possibilities into their design. For the average child in the younger cohort, the project led to improvements in physical health and well-being as well as language and cognitive development. For this cohort, there is little evidence of differential impact. This can be explained by the fact that children who enrolled soon after the centers opened (the older cohort) were generally poorer, compared with children who enrolled later (the younger cohort). This may be because of fee increases in project centers as project funding ended.

This paper is a product of the Education Global Practice Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at ahasan1@ worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
largest global coverage including 146 countries up from 117 in 1993, the previous round. China participated for the first time ever and India for the first time since 1985.

In addition to the improvements in country coverage, the survey methodology was also improved in the latest round of the ICP, in particular in terms of product specifications. However, the issue of urban bias in price collection (that is, of price data collected disproportionately in urban areas) has received particular attention in the case of China, where the 2005 ICP round led to a substantial upward revision of the previous price level (which had been mostly based on guesswork). The price survey was conducted in 11 metropolitan and periurban areas which were chosen because they were likely to have outlets that sold the products compared in the ICP survey (Chen and Ravallion, 2010a). Chen and Ravallion (2010a) argue that the measured price level is representative of urban prices, but substantially overstates the rural price level. In this paper we follow the approach adopted by Chen and Ravallion (2010b) of treating the official PPP rate as representative of urban China and using a downwardly adjusted PPP rate for rural China.

The second step in the estimation of PPP exchange rates involves the computation of a price index, i.e. a particular weighting scheme which combines the national prices collected in the first step. In the most recent 2005 ICP round, the World Bank has used the index due to Eltetö and Köves (1964) and Szulc (1964) (EKS). The Penn World Tables and earlier estimates by the World Bank used the Geary-Khamis (GK) method (Khamis, 1972). The EKS index is a multilateral price index which combines all the bilateral Fisher price indices.<sup>12</sup> More precisely it is the geometric mean of all the indirect Fisher indices between the base country and the country of interest.<sup>13</sup> The EKS index satisfies transitivity, so we have one index per country instead of a matrix of indices. But the EKS method violates the “independence of irrelevant country”

> 12 The Fisher index is the geometric mean of the Paasche and Laspeyres indices. Its weights thus take into account both the reference and comparison countries. Importantly, it naturally obeys the reversal property, which means that the price level of country 1 based on country 2 is the inverse of the price level of country 2 based on country 1. In the special case of identical homothetic preferences between two countries, the Fisher index is a second-order approximation to a “true” cost-of-living index (Deaton and Heston, 2010).

> 13 Suppose we are interested in estimating Ghana’s price level (relative to the US, the base country). There exists a Fisher index which goes from the US to Germany and a separate Fisher index which goes from Germany to Ghana. The EKS index is a geometric mean of all these indirect Fisher indices.

9
al., 2011). The World Bank mainstreamed the SCI in its monitoring and assessment framework and has adopted it as a baseline indicator in various projects at the country level.<sup>3</sup> The SCI is based on publicly available data, and this has various advantages over other indexes of statistical capacity. A key advantage of the SCI is that it can provide assessment of a country’s statistical capacity in an internationally comparable and cost-effective manner.

Existing efforts in building indexes to assess statistical capacity have focused on the practical aspects such as data collection, organization, and legal issues, paying little attention to the underlying theoretical principles that are indispensable for the construction of a reliable, transparent, and consistent statistical capacity index. For example, the UNECE, in a recent Global Assessment report, discusses only the legal basis, description of the statistical system, data source, and processing of the target country (UNECE, 2014). The FAO, in its guidelines for assessing country capacity in producing agricultural statistics, provides instructions on completing the questionnaires and on compiling the assessment indicator (FAO, 2014), but pays no attention to the axiomatic principles of these indicators. The U.S. Census Bureau developed and recently updated (2017) the Tool for Assessing Statistical Capacity (TASC) with a primary objective of measuring the overall capacity of an NSS by providing a breakdown of the areas of strength and weakness. However, the focus of this instrument is on measuring the capacity of an NSS to conduct household-based surveys and censuses.<sup>4</sup> To our knowledge, only Sanga, Dosso, and Gui-Diby (2011) discuss the technical framework behind the African Statistical Development Index (ASDI).

> 3 For other recent examples that use the SCI, see: Beegle et al. (2016) for an analysis of the relationship between good governance and statistical capacity in African countries; Tapsoba, Noumon, and York (2017) for the impacts of statistical capacity on reducing procyclical fiscal policy; and UNICEF (2018) for the role of statistical capacity in tracking the SDG for child development.

> 4 We return to provide more discussion on the SCI and these other methods in Section 2 below.

3
In the next section, we briefly describe the institutional and regulatory context currently in place in China. In section 3, we present the model we purport to test. In Section 4, the dataset and results are presented. We briefly conclude in Section 5.

# 2. **Context**

(a) _Growth and the environment in Zhenjiang, China_ China's industrial growth has been extremely rapid. In the 1990s, industrial output increased by more than 15% annually. Industry now accounts for approximately 45% of China's gross domestic product, and has provided a source of rapidly expanding income. However, serious environmental damage has accompanied this rapid growth. A large number of China's waterways are near biological death from excessive discharge of organic pollutants. In many urban areas, atmospheric concentrations of pollutants such as suspended particulates and sulfur dioxide routinely exceed World Health Organization safety standards by very large margins.'° Chinese industry is a primary source of the environmental degradation noted in recent years. China's National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) estimates that industrial pollution accounts for over 70% of the nation's total emissions of pollution (NEPA, 1996).

Zhenjiang, with a population of approximately 3 million people, is an industrial city located on the South Bank of the Yangtze River. It is directly under the leadership of the Jiangsu provincial government. Given its location, with Nanjing lying west and Shanghai east, Zhenjiang has a key place in the economy of China and is an important hub of communication on the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The Beijing-Shanghai Railway passes through the city. With its port and railway, Zhenjiang is a major land and water communications hub in China.

Zhenjiang's industrial growth has been extremely rapid during the period of China's economic reform. Over the course of the last decade, Zhenjiang's industrial For more details, see Dasgupta et al. (1997) and World Bank (1997).

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Such distinctions between the ‘contractual’ versus the ‘donational’ notion of marriage in Islam compared to Hinduism have implications for the relative costs and benefits of having sons and daughters. From a purely economic perspective, the net benefit of having daughters may be more ‘costly’ for Hindu than for Muslim parents in India. Investments in daughters are also not recoverable.

The preference for sons over daughters is also emphasized by other areas of Hindu ritual and philosophy. For example, securing a good ‘rebirth’ is believed to be directly related to whether the eldest son of a deceased individual lights the funeral pyre. This sentiment is echoed in many writings: ‘At the end of the ( _Sraddha_ ) death ceremony the performer asks, “Let me, O fathers, have a hero for a son!”’ (Radhakrishnan, 1927, pp. 59-60). Additionally, sons are believed to be a vital source of security in old-age. Daughters are generally considered to ‘belong’ to the family that they marry into, and so cannot be viewed as a source of support to her natal family.

It must be emphasized that son-preference has also been documented in Islamic society. Islamic law is patriarchal and patrilineal. Sons are given twice as large an inheritance as daughters are and a man’s testimony in court is worth twice that of a woman (Coulson and Hinchcliffe, 1978). Women in Islamic societies have typically been restricted to a lifestyle that guaranteed preservation of family honor and prestige and had limited opportunities to participate in labor markets (Coulson and Hinchcliffe, 1978: 38; Obermeyer, 1992). We simply argue that son-preference may less unequivocal as it is with Hindus. More recently, some sociological evidence has also emphasized this. For example, in his study of 378 Muslim women and men in Mangalore, Azim found that over two-third of respondents in his sample did not prefer sons, over daughters (Azim, 1997, p. 187); moreover, a large proportion of those who did were from poor and illiterate households (Azim, 1997: 189). Other nationally representative data from the National Family Health Surveys of India also show that about one-third of Muslims do not prefer sons over daughters (Kishor, 1993).<sup>6</sup> The relative importance of sons and daughters may stem not only from theology, but also from the differential socio-economic circumstances of Hindus and Muslims (Iyer, 2002;

> <u>6An</u> early example of the recognition of the contrast in gender norms comes from Maulana Ashraf Ali Thanavi who wrote a compendium of useful knowledge for women. He condemned the practice of blessing a woman by wishing her husband, brother, or children long life, or wishing for her many sons and grandsons (Minault 1998, p. 62). He argued that this was not suficiently Islamic because to view women blessed in terms of their relation to men and sons devalues their relationship to God, and hence goes against the tenet that all are equal in his sight.

5
Schreefel, Loekie, R. P. O. Schulte, I. J. M. De Boer, A. Pas Schrijver, and H. H. E. Van Zanten. 2020. "Regenerative agriculture–the soil is the base." _Global Food Security_ 26.

- Suri, Tavneet, and Christopher Udry. 2022. "Agricultural technology in Africa." _Journal of Economic Perspectives_ 36 (1): 33-56.

- Tambo, Justice A., and Jonathan Mockshell. 2018. "Differential impacts of conservation agriculture technology options on household income in Sub-Saharan Africa." _Ecological Economics_ 151: 95105.

Wunder, S., J. Börner, D. Ezzine-de-Blas, S. Feder, and S Pagiola. 2020. "Payments for environmental services: Past performance and pending potentials." _Annual Review of Resource Economics_ 12: 209-234.

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- **Paredes, Carlos E.** 2014. “La anchoveta: pesca y descarte de juveniles. An ́alisis de la regulaci ́on pesquera y propuestas para su perfeccionamiento.” Universidad de San Mart ́ın de Porres Cuadernos de Investigaci ́on Edici ́on N<sup>_◦_</sup> 20.

- **Pfaff, Alexander, and Juan Robalino.** 2017. “Spillovers from conservation programs.” _Annual Review of Resource Economics_ , 9: 299–315.

- **Pikitch, Ellen, Patricia Dee Boersma, Ian Boyd, David Conover, Philippe Cury, Timothy Essington, Selina Heppell, Edward Houde, Marc Mangel, Daniel Pauly, et al.** 2012. “Little fish, big impact: Managing a crucial link in ocean food webs.” Lenfest Ocean Program.

- **Pons, Maite, Jordan T Watson, Daniel Ovando, Sandra Andraka, Stephanie Brodie, Andr ́es Domingo, Mark Fitchett, Rodrigo Forselledo, Martin Hall, Elliott L Hazen, et al.** 2022. “Trade-offs between bycatch and target catches in static versus dynamic fishery closures.” _Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences_ , 119(4): e2114508119.

- **PRODUCE.** 2012. “Decreto Supremo N<sup>_◦_</sup> 008-2012: Decreto Supremo que establece medidas para la conservacion del recurso hidrobiologico.” Ministerio de la Producci ́on (PRODUCE).

- **PRODUCE.** 2016 _a_ . “Decreto Supremo N<sup>_◦_</sup> 024-2016: Decreto Supremo que establece medidas para fortalecer el control y vigilancia de la actividad extractiva para la conservaci ́on y aprovechamiento sostenible del recurso anchoveta.” Ministerio de la Producci ́on (PRODUCE).

- **PRODUCE.** 2016 _b_ . “Resoluci ́on Directoral N<sup>_◦_</sup> 014-2016-PRODUCE/DGSF.” Ministerio de la Producci ́on (PRODUCE).

- **PRODUCE.** 2017 _a_ . “I temporada de pesca – 2017 Zona Norte-Centro: Resumen Ejecutivo de Seguimiento y Control.” Ministerio de la Producci ́on (PRODUCE).

- **PRODUCE.** 2017 _b_ . “Resoluci ́on Directoral N<sup>_◦_</sup> 687-2017-PRODUCE/DS-PA.” Ministerio de la Producci ́on (PRODUCE).

- **PRODUCE.** 2018 _a_ . “Anuario Estad ́ıstico Pesquero y Acu ́ıcola 2017.” Ministerio de la Producci ́on (PRODUCE).

- **PRODUCE.** 2018 _b_ . “I temporada de pesca – 2018 Zona Norte-Centro: Resumen Ejecutivo de Seguimiento y Control.” Ministerio de la Producci ́on (PRODUCE).

- **PRODUCE.** 2018 _c_ . “II temporada de pesca – 2017 Zona Norte-Centro: Resumen Ejecutivo de Seguimiento y Control.” Ministerio de la Producci ́on (PRODUCE).

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Therefore, it can be concluded that firm productivity decreases with inventory. If inventories are reduced by 10 percent, firm production increases by 3 to 6 percent. As will be seen below, the level of inventory is related to transport connectivity.

Contrary to our prior expectation, agglomeration economies are found to be insignificant. In the last column model, the output elasticity associated with the number of firms at the same locality, _N_ , is estimated to be negative at the 10 percent significance level, meaning that firm production would be reduced when more firms agglomerate together at the same place, i.e., diseconomies of agglomeration. This may be able to be interpreted as a fact that industrial backward and forward linkages are still weak in Kazakhstan. Firms’ locational choice may remain suboptimal to maximize the firm production as a whole.

**<u>Table 3. Output elasticity with respect to direct and indirect transport impacts</u>**

||(1)<br>||(2)<br>|<br>|(3)<br>|<br>|(4)<br>|<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Coef.|Std.Err.|Coef.|Std.Err.|Coef.|Std.Err.|Coef.|Std.Err.|
|_CITY_|-0.237|(0.145) *|-0.162|(0.094) *|||||
|_BP_|-0.106|(0.142)|||-0.131|(0.142)|||
|_MAI_|-0.029|(0.178)|||||0.077|(0.133)|
|_Q_|-0.637|(0.382) *|-0.322|(0.054) ***|-0.340|(0.059) ***|-0.336|(0.060) ***|
|_N_|-0.046|(0.545)|-0.160|(0.108)|-0.152|(0.113)|-0.201|(0.120) *|
|_M_|0.122|(0.463)|-0.322|(0.529)|-0.253|(0.547)|-0.322|(0.570)|

Regarding the production inputs, the implied factor demand elasticities are computed. As expected, the elasticities are all negative and significant, meaning that the demand for production factors would decline when their prices increase ( **Table 4** ). Labor demand is the most priceelastic, followed by energy and financial services. Fuel demand is the least elastic, implying that firms cannot reduce their use of fuel even if fuel prices increase. By contrast, if wages increase, firms are likely to adjust their demand for labor, resulting in a significant increase of unemployment. The results are robust against specifications.

The output elasticities associated with factor prices are also calculated ( **Table 5** ). The highest elasticity is found for labor. When wages decline, firm production could be stimulated significantly. The elasticity is estimated at about 0.45 in absolute terms. Interest rates also have a relatively large elasticity, indicating that firms may have considerable financial constraints and a
_“...but the ultimate victory will depend upon the hearts and the minds of the people who actually live out there. By helping to bring them hope and electricity you are also striking a very important blow for the cause of freedom throughout the world.”_ Lyndon B. Johnson, President of the United States, 1963-1969. Remarks at a Dinner Meeting of the Texas Electric Cooperatives, Inc., May 4, 1965

# **Introduction**

Winning hearts and minds has moved to the forefront of foreign policy in many countries and is a part of the general lexicon of dealing with the Muslim world in the decade after 9/11. With nation building and planning for the post conflict phase in full motion in Iraq and Afghanistan, winning “hearts and minds” in the region is now more than ever seen as a legitimate and perhaps even a principal aim of providing bilateral foreign assistance in conflict ridden areas. The relationship between population attitudes and foreign aid is particularly salient in Pakistan, a country that has seen a sharp increase in terrorist incidents between 2006 and 2008.<sup>2</sup> Especially worrisome is the “trust deficit” between Pakistan and countries like the U.S., an issue that has been publicly acknowledged as hindering the effectiveness of aid in furthering development outcomes.<sup>3</sup> Devastating floods in the summer of 2010 in Pakistan have only served to highlight the importance of this point: There has been considerable debate among policy analysts on the value of aid as a means of counteracting the activities of the militant organizations who might step in to provide timely and much needed assistance.<sup>4</sup> Given the intense public scrutiny and important policy implications, it is therefore surprising that there is little direct evidence on the relationship between foreign aid and population attitudes in the

> 2 A U.S. state department report documents 1,839 terrorist incidents in Pakistan in 2008 compared to 890 in 2007 (U.S. State Department, 2009).

> 3 See for instance in discussions leading to the passage of the Kerry-Lugar Bill signed this year to provide aid to Pakistan. A June 2010 poll in Pakistan by Pew shows that 68 percent of the population has an “unfavorable” view of the United States.

> 4 See for instance Howard LaFranchi in the _Christian Science Monitor_ (http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign- <u>Policy/2010/0803/Pakistan-flood-relief-Could-it-undercut-Taliban-influence), Huma Yusuf in</u> _Dawn_ (http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/columnists/19-huma-yusuf- <u>the-link-with-governance-180-hh-06) or the editors of CNN.com (http://afghanistan.blogs.cnn.com/2010/08/03/u-ssees-opportunity-in-pakistani-floods/)</u>

2