**<u>Graph 8: UNHCR Registered Syrian Refugees and Asylum‐Seekers</u>**

<!-- Start of picture text --> (a) Total Syrian Refugees and Asylum‐Seekers (b) Profile of Syrian Refugees in Selected Neigboring Countries<br>Million All countries (source: UNHCR<br>persons populations of concern*)<br>7.00 Turkey and MENA (source: UNHCR 6.46 Total<br>6.00 populations of concern*) 5.72 5.48 5.66 60+ yrs<br>Selected neigboring countries 5.13 4.86 5.48<br>5.00 (source: UNHCR Regional Refugee 4.59 18‐59 yrs<br>and Resilience Plan) 3.97<br>4.00 3.73 12‐17 yrs<br>3.00 2.52 2.39 5‐11 yrs<br>2.00<br>0‐4 yrs<br>1.00 0.76 0.70<br>... ... 0 10 20 30 40 50 60<br>0.00<br>2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % of total refugees in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey,<br>Female Male and North Africa ( 5,663,675 as at 31 December 2018 )<br>*Comprises refugees, asylum‐seekers (pending cases) and others of concern. Source: UNHCR and Government of Turkey<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 6.00<br>5.00<br>4.00<br><!-- End of picture text --> ILO (2018) projects the overall LFPR at 43.0% in 2018 (female at 12.5% and male at 73.0%) down from 44.9% in 2010 (female at 14% and male at 75.6%), giving an average negative growth of ‐0.5% over 2011‐2018 (female LFPR growth at ‐1.4% and male at ‐0.4%). Data in World Bank (2017b) suggest the LFPR in 2015 stood at 47.2%, somewhat higher than the 2010 level of 44.6%.<sup>31</sup> World Bank (2019) meanwhile shows latest/2017 LFPRs for men and women above 15 years of age at 79.1% and 11.9% respectively versus 73.0% and 13.0% in 2010. We use the ILO estimates in our central projection, and for a possible upper estimate, consider an increment in the LFPR by 2018 based on the changes in participation rates of men and women reported in World Bank (2019).

# _3.1.3 Human capital_

Human capital would have been affected by (i) the **interruption of schooling** of the younger population, who represent future entrants into the labor force; and (ii) **migration** and **fatalities** which alter the distribution of years of schooling among the remaining population/existing labor force.

Regarding the **interruption of schooling** , according to SCPR (2016), almost half (45.2%) of all basic education school‐age children residing within the country were not attending school by 2014‐2015. They estimate a decline of 1.5 in the average years of schooling for population aged 15 and above _,_ based on these non‐attendance rates, from 6.8 in 2010 to 5.3 years in 2015.<sup>32</sup> We provide alternative calculations to assess the impact from the interruption of schooling as well as migration and fatalities on the national average of years of schooling. To do this, we use forward extrapolations, with the following assumptions:<sup>33</sup>  for age groups, a�3: 25 �29 to a�10: 60 �64 , the educational attainment (average schooling years), s, of gender g (either men, m or women, f� in age group, a, at time, t, is the same as that of the age group five years younger at time, t�5, as we assume these groups have completed their education, i.e.,

> 31 Though this LFPR increase contrasts with the ILO estimate of a decline, data in World Bank (2017b) suggests a sharp increase in the unemployment rate from 8.6% in 2010 to 52.9% in 2015. ILO estimates, on the other hand, point to a more moderate increase in the unemployment rate to 14.9% in 2018 (14.7% in 2015).

> 32 The same contraction rate in enrollment for basic education is assumed for secondary and tertiary education.

> 33 The nomenclature draws on Barro and Lee (2013, 2015).

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