In practice, we change the income of all workers in the agricultural sector, according the “revenue difference” column in Table 3. We also rescale the (real) income of all households according to the change in food prices (“price difference” column in Table 3), accounting for the share of food in household budget (which decreases with income, see Figure 10). The impact of the agriculture channel on poverty depends on the number of farmers in each country, the income of these farmers, and the income of the entire population (which affects the share of food in consumption).

In the high‐impact scenario, the number of people living below the extreme poverty line in 2030 increases by 67 million people in the _poverty_ scenario because of climate change impacts on agriculture, and by 6.3 million people in the _prosperity_ scenario. On average, therefore, the negative impact of climate change on food prices dominates the potential positive impacts through agriculture revenues.

# Health

We now include a set of additional impacts of climate change on health (stunting, malaria, and diarrhea).

## Stunting

Stunting is linked to malnutrition and therefore to food price, but acts through a different channel than the direct impact on food prices on the ability to consume. It is also driven by more than access to and affordability of food (Lloyd, Kovats, and Chalabi 2011; Hales et al. 2014). Socioeconomic characteristics such as parents’ education and access to basic services (especially improved drinking water and sanitation) also play a key role.

Stunting has short‐ and long‐term impacts particularly for children younger than two. For instance, households reducing nutrition after droughts permanently lowered children stature by 2.3 to 3 cm (Dercon and Porter 2014; Alderman, Hoddinott, and Kinsey 2006). Hoddinott (2006) also observes the body mass index (BMI) of women reduced 3%; while this recovered the following year, impacts on children are long‐lasting. Stunting is also linked to delayed motor development, lower IQ, more behavioral problems, lower educational achievement (less years of schooling), and reduced economic activity (Martorell 1999; Victoria _et al._ 2008; Currie 2009; Caruso 2015). These consequences have impacts on lifelong earning capacity and ability to escape poverty. In Zimbabwe, children affected by droughts had 14% lower lifetime earnings (Alderman et al., 2006) and in Ethiopia income was reduced by 3% for individuals who were younger than 3 years old during droughts.

Lloyd et al (2011) suggest that climate change could have a large impact on stunting, and even that climate change could dominate the positive effect of development in some regions, leading to an absolute increase in stunting over time. In our model, we use the ranges given in (Hales et al. 2014, Table 7.4) for the additional share of children estimated to be stunted because of climate change in 2030. To account for development, we investigate the distribution of stunting today using DHS household surveys. We find that prevalence of stunting drops for families whose income is above $8,000 per year (Figure 11).

We randomly select a fraction of the households with income below $8,000, so that stunting prevalence is consistent with data for the current situation. Then, we increase this fraction by the fraction given in (Hales et al. 2014, Table 7.4) to account for climate change. We assume that stunted individuals have 23