rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
However, the view that the focus should be on new products and entering new markets is not shared by everyone. Indeed, ITC (1998) or Boston Consulting (2004) suggest that it is most useful to target firms that are “threshold” or “mature” exporters, as inappropriate targeting at the level can be wasteful.

In his survey of the early literature, de Wulf (2001) stressed the importance of emphasizing on-shore activities. EPAs have traditionally focused on off-shore activities, such as information gathering, trade fairs and trade representation, sometimes neglecting the importance of home country supply conditions.

Our global survey of EPAs sheds light on some of the old and current debates. As noted by Hogan (2001), heterogeneity of environment, structures, policies and their impact are an important concern that we will try to seriously address. Nonetheless, cross-country analysis inherently limit the extent to which the heterogeneity of impacts can be addressed.<sup>8</sup> Ultimately, this type of exercise must be complemented with country-specific case studies.

# **3 Survey of EPAs: Summary statistics**

During the summer and fall of 2005 we conducted an eighteen question survey of EPAs around the world.<sup>9</sup> Through the ITC website (www.intracen.org/tpo) we obtained a database with contact information. We complemented this list with the help of many World Bank country economists who provided contact information for national EPAs. We contacted agencies or Ministries in 147 countries. In 31 countries we were informed that there was no national EPA. The surveys was sent to 116 countries and 92 answered (of which 4 responded that they could not respond). Each of the 88 surveys that we received was followed up with phone conversations to confirm and clarify some of the answers. The list of 88 agencies appears in the Appendix Table. All countries in the sample are classified by geographic regions.

The survey contains five parts: i) institutional structure, ii) responsibilities of the agency,

> agencies from different part of the world to compare strategies.

> 8Although we do test for the existence of heterogeneity across countries, if fully addressed one is likely to run out of degrees of freedom.

> 9The survey is available from the authors upon request.

7
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growth, while De Gregorio (1996) shows for a sample of 20 OECD countries that higher loan-tovalue ratios are associated with higher secondary school enrolment, but not with economic growth.<sup>3</sup> Both theory and previous empirical work thus provide ambiguous predictions, with the effect of household credit on economic growth mainly depending on the use of the credit. Unlike our paper, most previous empirical work has been limited to OECD countries.

Theory also provides little guidance regarding which factors should drive the composition of credit to the private sector.<sup>4</sup> We therefore relate our analysis of cross-country variation in the share of household credit to the basic analytics of credit provision by financial institutions – economizing on transaction costs and improving risk management (Diamond 1984, Ramakrishnan and Thakor 1984, Boyd and Prescott 1986, Williamson 1986, Allen 1990, among many others). Household loans are typically of smaller size and households typically are harder to evaluate and have less collateral to offer, so that both transaction costs and information asymmetries constitute a higher hurdle. In our cross-country analysis, we will therefore relate different country characteristics to the degree to which financial institutions can overcome these market frictions.

Analyzing credit composition across countries and over time shows that the share of household credit increases as countries develop economically and financially. Cross-country regressions with data averaged over 1994 to 2005 suggest, however, that only bank lending to enterprises, but not to households, is linked to GDP per capita growth. The increasing importance of household credit for higher-income countries and its insignificance in growth regressions can explain the non-linear relationship of overall financial development with economic growth documented by other studies. Exploring country characteristics related to credit composition shows that the share of household credit is related both to demand and supply-side constraints, but not to banking market structure or regulatory policies. Specifically, the share of household credit is higher in more urban societies and in countries with smaller manufacturing sectors. Market-based financial systems where firms can access alternative

> 3 The literature using micro-level data on household credit also provides ambiguous results. Karlan and Zinman (2006) find a positive effect, while Coleman (1999) finds no effect of microcredit on households’ welfare in South Africa and Thailand, respectively.

> 4 While Jappelli and Pagano (1989) discuss the determinants of consumer debt, rather than the composition of credit, they provide useful discussion on some supply and demand side factors of consumer credit. On the supply side, they concentrate on interest spreads and on indicators of credit rationing and on the demand side, on tax incentives to borrow, the age structure of the population, the earnings profiles of consumers, and their preferences.

2
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43
Policy Research Working Paper 8572

# **Abstract**

Teachers, like all professionals, require ongoing professional development opportunities to improve their skills. This paper provides evidence on effective professional development characteristics and how at-scale programs incorporate those characteristics. The authors propose a standard set of 70 indicators—the In-Service Teacher Training Survey Instrument—for reporting on professional development programs as a prerequisite for understanding the characteristics of those programs that improve student learning. The authors apply the instrument to rigorously evaluated professional development programs in low- and middle-income countries. Across 33 programs, those programs that link participation to career incentives, have a specific subject focus, incorporate lesson enactment in the training, and include initial face-to-face training tend to show higher student learning gains. In qualitative interviews, program implementers also report follow-up visits as among the most effective characteristics of their professional development programs. The authors then apply the instruments to a sample of 139 government-funded, at-scale professional development programs across 14 countries. This analysis uncovers a sharp gap between the characteristics of teacher professional development programs that evidence suggests are effective and the global realities of most teacher professional development programs.

This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Africa Region and the World Development Report 2018 team. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http:// www.worldbank.org/research. The authors may be contacted at apopova@stanford.edu and devans2@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
lower real GDP in all periods than does the sales tax increase. In addition, average real household income growth is lower with the corporate income tax increase than it is with the sales tax increase. Thus, a modest sales tax increase would appear to be our choice among revenue equivalent tax changes, if we consider only macro aggregates. If we turn to poverty indicators, we find certain additional results. This will be the subject of the next section.

# **VI.  Poverty Calculations**

As noted in the previous section, three particular changes to the tax code are considered: a one percentage point increase in the General Sales Tax, a ten percentage point increase in the corporate tax rate, and a five percentage point increase in the tariff rate. Changing the corporate tax rate from 35 to 45 percent, and changing the GST from 16 to 17 percent are revenue equivalent policies, increasing revenue by 0.7 percentage points of GNP (from 20.4 percent in the baseline to 21.1 percent of GNP). Raising the tariff to 19 percent, from 14 percent, increases revenue by only 0.6 percentage points of GNP, while having a less favorable macro outcome than does the sales tax increase.

In this section, we allow the endogenous outputs of the CGE model, in particular the series of real consumption indices reported in Appendix Tables 1-4, to be entered as data inputs to our micro-simulation model of Pakistan households. We report the simulated effects of the tax reforms on two outcomes: 1) the average change in real consumption for each quintile (incidence), as well as the share of the benefits or burden accruing to each quintile of the consumption distribution (targeting performance), 2) the poverty rate, as compared to the baseline case. In order to calculate these outcomes, we apply the CGE generated growth rates in real household income uniformly within the corresponding household groups in the 2010-11 Pakistani Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (PSLM) to simulate the effect of the 21
relations advisors to promote political candidates or government policies. While some of the tools described above are overtly paternalistic in the sense that they influence people’s behavior without their conscious awareness (e.g., the use of goal priming or imitation), other tools fall into the category of libertarian paternalism, advocated by behavioral economists and decision researchers. Behavioral economists Thaler and Sunstein (2008) argue that, in light of human attentional and processing limitations, it is often possible to design policies, in both the public and private sector that make people better off -- as judged by themselves -- without coercion. Designing decision environments with sustainable-development friendly defaults, for example, does not reduce people’s choices and is probably less paternalistic than other policies like the imposition of a carbon tax.

# **References**

Abrahamse, W., Steg L., Vlek C., Rothengatter T. (2005). A review of intervention studies aimed at household energy conservation. _Journal of Environmental Psychology, 25_ , 273-291 Abreu, J.M., Azevedo, I.L., & Pereira, F.C. (2011). A contribution to better understanding the demand for electricity in the residential sector. Paper presented at the European Council for Energy Efficient Economics, Monitoring and Evaluation Panel, Session 7, Paper 466.

Allianz (2008). Pay as You Go: The Pros and Cons of Carbon Offsets. _knowledge.allianz.com/.../emissions_trading__ **_carbon_** __dioxide__ **_offset_** _ting.pdf_ Allais, P. M. (1953). Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l'école americaine. _Econometrica, 21_ , 503-546.

Ames, D. R., Flynn, F. J., & Weber, E. U. (2004). It’s the thought that counts: On perceiving how helpers decide to lend a hand. _Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 30,_ 461-474.

Ainslie, G. (1975). Specious reward: A behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control. _Psychological Bulletin, 82_ , 463-496.

Ashraf, N., Camerer, C.F., Loewenstein, G. (2005). Adam Smith, behavioral economist. _Journal of Economic Perspectives,_ 19, 131-45 Azevedo, I.M., Morgan, M.G., & Lave, L. (2011). Residential and regional electricity consumptionin the US and EU: How much will higher prices reduce CO2 emissions? _Electricity Journal, 24_ , 21-29.

37
This paper studies the relevance of reorganization costs for the efficiency of bankruptcy laws. We develop a simple model that predicts that in a regime with high costs, the law fails to achieve the efficient outcome of liquidating unviable businesses and reorganizing viable ones.

We test the model using Colombia as an example. In 1999, amidst a major crisis, the Colombian Congress replaced the existing corporate reorganization proceeding with a more streamlined procedure that limited negotiations to a maximum of eight months and stipulated that failure to reach an agreement would result in mandatory liquidation.

We use data from all filing firms in Colombia between 1996 and 2003, spanning the change in the reorganization law, to provide evidence that the new law increased the efficiency of the bankruptcy system in Colombia. We first show that indirect reorganization costs, as measured by the duration of the reorganization process, have significantly decreased after the reform. Second, we show that the pre-reform reorganization proceeding was so inefficient that it failed to separate economically viable firms from inefficient ones. In contrast, by substantially lowering reorganization costs, the new law succeeds in selecting healthier (and hence more viable) firms for reorganization. Finally, we show that the recovery of reorganized firms is significantly improved after the reform, as a result of lower costs and better selection of viable firms.

From a policy standpoint, this paper highlights the relevance of the design of bankruptcy laws. A reduction in the costs (both direct and indirect) associated with filing can contribute to the overall efficiency of the economy and should be a priority in the agenda for economic reforms.

25
**<u>Table 10.</u>** <u>Effects of gender role attitudes and personality traits on profits (</u> _<u>men</u>_ <u>sample)</u>

||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|(10)|(11)|(12)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Norms|Norms+<br>Controls|Norms+<br>Controls+<br>Personality|_Norms+_<br>_Controls+_<br>_Impulsive_|_Norms+_<br>_Controls+_<br>_Work_<br>_Central_|_Norms+_<br>_Controls+_<br>_Tenacity_|_Norms+_<br>_Controls+_<br>_Polychroni_<br>_city_|_Norms+_<br>_Controls+_<br>_Locus of_<br>_Control_|_Norms+_<br>_Control+_<br>_Achieveme_<br>_nt_|_Norms+_<br>_Control+_<br>_Power_<br>_Motivation_|_Norms+_<br>_Controls+_<br>_Organized_|_Norms+_<br>_Controls+_<br>_Optimism_|
|Traditional|-0.012**|-0.002|-0.004|0.011|-0.037|-0.070***|-0.012|-0.024|-0.023|0.036|-0.029|0.055|
||(-2.00)|(-0.25)|(-0.56)|(0.42)|(-1.33)|(-2.68)|(-0.39)|(-1.17)|(-0.57)|(1.63)|(-0.87)|(1.05)|
|Impulsive|||-0.167|0.123|||||||||
||||(-1.21)|(0.27)|||||||||
|Work centrality|||0.093||-0.290||||||||
||||(0.72)||(-0.83)||||||||
|Tenacity|||0.016|||-0.719**|||||||
||||(0.13)|||(-2.17)|||||||
|Polychronicity|||0.009||||-0.239||||||
||||(0.06)||||(-0.43)||||||
|Locus of control|||-0.043|||||-0.443|||||
||||(-0.49)|||||(-1.47)|||||
|Achievement|||0.030||||||-0.105||||
||||(0.16)||||||(-0.20)||||
|Power motivation|||0.052|||||||0.598*|||
||||(0.41)|||||||(1.95)|||
|Organized|||0.077||||||||-0.203||
||||(0.57)||||||||(-0.50)||
|Optimism|||-0.450***|||||||||0.271|
||||(-3.56)|||||||||(0.45)|
|Traditional*Impulsive||||-0.005|||||||||
|||||(-0.51)|||||||||
|Traditional*Work centrality|||||0.009||||||||
||||||(1.34)||||||||
|Traditional*Tenacity||||||0.018**|||||||
|||||||(2.57)|||||||
|Traditional*Polychronicity|||||||0.005||||||
||||||||(0.37)||||||
|Traditional*locus control||||||||0.007|||||
|||||||||(1.03)|||||

42
# The Labor Market Effects of Disability Benefit Loss<sup>∗</sup>

Anikó Bíró Cecília Hornok Judit Krekó Dániel Prinz Ágota Scharle

**Keywords:** disability insurance; benefit reduction; employment **JEL Codes:** H55, J14

> ∗Bíró: Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (biro.aniko@krtk.hu). Hornok: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (cecilia.hornok@ifw-kiel.de). Krekó: Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis and Centre for Economic and Regional Studies (judit.kreko@budapestinstitute.eu). Prinz: World Bank (dprinz@worldbank.org). Scharle: Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis (agota.scharle@budapestinstitute.eu). Bíró and Krekó were supported by the “Lendület” program of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (grant number: LP2018-2/2018). Krekó and Scharle were supported by a National Research, Development and Innovation Fund (OTKA) research grant (grant number: K-135962). We thank Edina Berlinger, Márta Bisztray, Márton Csillag, Sandra Gain, Rafael de Hoyos, Gábor Kertesi, Rita Pető, Petra Reszkető, Ágnes Szabó-Morvai, Balázs Váradi, Roula Yazigi, and seminar participants at the Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, ESPE, COMPIE and RES Conferences for helpful comments. This paper uses a linked database of data provided by the Hungarian State Treasury, the National Health Insurance Fund, the Educational Authority, the National Tax and Customs Administration, the Ministry of Economic Development and cleaned by the Databank of the Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies. We thank the Databank of the Centre for Economic and Regional Studies for providing access and guidance in using their database. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not represent the views of the World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
services are offered.

# **2 Ethiopia – A High Fertility Country**

In 2005 Ethiopia’s current total fertility rate (TFR), the predicted number of children a woman will have during her reproductive life, was estimated at 5.4, in effect adding about 2 million people a year to Ethiopia’s population of about 74 million in 2007.<sup>10</sup> Population growth resulting from such high fertility is believed to come at a high cost to living standards. Already in 1999, the average land holding per rural person was estimated at only 0.21 ha, down from 0.5 ha in the 1960s. This, coupled with lack of agricultural productivity growth, has contributed to a (rapidly growing) core group of five to seven million who are chronically food insecure. Spatial resettlement of about two million people from the highlands to the lowlands, adopted in 2003 as one of a series of policy measures to tackle the problem of chronic food insecurity in many highland weredas, is unlikely to provide a sustainable solution (World Bank 2007). The high fertility and population growth rates are not unique to Ethiopia. There are about 20 countries that have a TFR higher than 5, almost all very poor (World Bank 2010).

Cognizant of the challenge population growth posed, the government of Ethiopia adopted a population policy in 1993. The overall objective was to harmonize the country’s population growth rate with that of the economy, specifically to achieve a TFR of 4 by 2015. One of the major strategies to do so was to increase the contraceptive prevalence rate to 44 percent by 2015 by expanding access to family planning (Transitional Government of Ethiopia 1993). Ethiopia has historically had among the lowest contraceptive prevalence rates in Sub-Saharan Africa. According to the first-ever national survey on fertility and family planning in 1990 only 4 percent of women of reproductive age were using some family planning methods and less than 3 percent were using modern contraceptives (Transitional Government of Ethiopia 1993). Results from the 2005 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) show that this increased to 15 percent of married women using some method of contraception in 2005, with the majority relying on a modern method (Central Statistical Authority of Ethiopia and ORC Macro 2006).<sup>11</sup> The most commonly used modern methods are injectable

> 10There are substantial differences between Addis Ababa and the rest of Ethiopia. In Addis Ababa, the estimated total fertility rate is below replacement (Gurmu and Mace 2008).

> 11Other studies have found use rates in line with the DHS number or higher (Pathfinder International Ethiopia 2004; Essential Services for Health in Ethiopia 2005). The Essential Services for Health in Ethiopia (ESHE) conducted three region-wide surveys in SNNP, Oromia, and Amhara regions between 2003 and 2004. The studies showed prevalence

4