outflows of refugees who mostly settled in selected European countries. It is uncertain how many refugees the Balkan wars generated but using census data from seven European countries Borjas and Monras (2017) find about 259,000 people who were born in former Yugoslavia and moved to Europe during the decade. All considered, this is not a massive inflow of people but certain municipalities had a sizable increase in labor supply. The refugees had similar levels of education compared to the native population, but were faced with a lack of language skills.<sup>28</sup> They were offered different types of residence status by the different host countries but most of them were allowed to work.

Angrist and Kugler (2003) studied this caseload and, measuring aggregate differences across 18 European countries, find a negative and significant effect on employment with both an OLS and an IV approach. An increase in the share of immigrants by 10 percent reduces native employment rates by 0.2-0.7 of a percentage point with men and younger workers being the most affected groups.<sup>29</sup> These effects tend to be accentuated in localities with more rigid labor and product markets, weak institutions and stagnant labor markets. Borjas and Monras (2017) also cover refugees from Former Yugoslavia in seven of the 18 European countries studied by Angrist and Kugler (2003) and, differentating by education level and withincountry regions, find a significant positive effect on the unemployment rate of the locals with an OLS estimation and no significant effect with an IV estimation and a non significant effect on the employment rate. The results of these two papers are not comparable because of the models used, categorizations of variables and sample covered, and they also provide different results on employment. Clemens and Hunt (2017), carrying out a Kronmal correction on the instrument used by Borjas and Monras (2017), find a statistically insignificant effect on unemployment.

# Refugees in Denmark

Foged and Peri (2015) studied the inflow of refugees from conflict areas to Denmark between 1991 and 2008 accounting for up to 4.7 percent of the labor force in 2008. The paper exploits labor market administrative data following individuals continuously over time in a panel setting and a refugee dispersal policy that allocated refugees across the country between 1986 and 1998. Using OLS and 2SLS models, the paper finds that immigration increases the complexity and wages of jobs for the low-skilled natives. An increase in refugee-country immigrants by 1 percentage point increases the complexity of native jobs between 1.3 and 3.1 percent and wages by 1-1.8 percent. The authors interpret these results as immigrants pushing natives to more complex and better paid occupations either within the same establishments or by migrating to other establishments. They also find that total labor supply of natives either increases or is stable. These effects are not very large when compared to the overall changes of these parameters over the period considered but they show complementarities rather than competition between immigrants and natives. Similar effects are observed for high-skilled natives. In this case, the effects are smaller in terms of occupational complexity but larger for wages. These results are also supported by the DD cohortmunicipality model proposed by the same authors. Those cohorts living in municipalities with higher immigration experience a larger shift towards more complex occupations and better wages with these effects persisting in the short and long-run. Young and low-tenure, low-skilled natives are also shown to respond to immigration with stronger transitions towards higher occupational complexity and better wages with no negative effect on employment supply.

# Refugees in the United States

Similar to Foged and Peri (2015), Mayda et al. (2017) look at the long-term labor-market impacts of refugee inflows and exploit a refugee placement policy in the country of destination. They study the impact of resettled refugees on natives’ wages and employment in commuter zones in the U.S. over three decades, between 1980 and 2010. They find very small, mostly insignificant effects on wages and employment on

> 28 In the countries analyzed by Borjas and Monras (2017) they were disproportionately middle-skilled (secondary education). 29 Note that, in a country where 5 percent of the labor force is foreign, a 0.5 reduction of a percentage point implies 83 native workers losing their jobs for every 100 immigrant workers finding a job. Therefore, at the higher end of this estimations, the rate of substitution between native and foreign workers is around one to one, a very large effect on a per capita basis.

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