Panel A in Table 8 shows the factors associated with the likelihood to have voted for Bolsonaro during the 2018 elections (see again Appendix E for definitions of the variables included in the logistic regression). Our results suggest that voting for the Partido Social Liberal in the second round of the elections is associated with resentment against the Partido dos Trabalhadores ( _antipetismo_ ), which encapsulates disapproval of leadership due to widespread corruption and economic deterioration. Our results also suggest that those who voted for the Partido Social Liberal tend to hold anti-immigrant, anti-redistribution, conservative, and pro-military viewpoints; there is no evidence that the groups holding such sentiments experienced larger declines in SWB.

Panel B of Table 8, however, shows that the factors that explain the decline in SWB are also the factors underlying the switch from voting for the Partido dos Trabalhadores in 2014 to voting for Partido Social Liberal in 2018. Thinking that the economy has worsened increases the likelihood of being a switch voter by 50%, while having resentment against the Partido dos Trabalhadores increases the chance of switching from Dilma to Bolsonaro by 12%. These results suggest that the economic crisis and corruption scandals affected not only experienced welfare, but also eroded support for the Partido dos Trabalhadores and for the social contract shaped by the party during the 2000s.

# **6. Concluding Remarks**

For decades Brazil’s SWB was rising and by the mid-2010s the country stood out with its relatively high level of experienced welfare, although inequality in subjective well-being also remained high. Brazil’s SWB considerably deteriorated in 2015, when the economy contracted, following an economic and political crisis. Using Gallup World Poll data for the period 2010-2020, we identify the factors underpinning the level of Brazil’s SWB and its change during this period, paying special attention to differences across groups. Our results suggest that having sufficient income, financial security, economic optimism, satisfaction with living standards and health services, social capital, tertiary education, and digital access are the main factors associated with SWB in Brazil. These factors matter to different extents along the income distribution and across generations and space.

Mostly economic factors explain the decline in SWB since 2015, but disappointment with the country’s leadership also played a role. Economic expectations played a role in the decline as they assumed a greater role in people’s preferences, especially those of men, and more people grew pessimistic about the economic outlook. The SWB decline and the switch in voter support from one end of the political spectrum to the other in the 2018 general elections were both associated with the grievances triggered by the economic and leadership crisis of the mid-2010s. These grievances, fueled by deteriorating economic expectations and their greater role in people’s preferences, signal an erosion in the support for the social contract in place since the 1990s and the need to renew it.

This paper has three important implications. First, our findings indicate that the decline in SWB in Brazil can be linked not only to the economic decline after 2014, but also to the political crisis. This finding supports the notion that the effect of economic crises on subjective well-being can indeed be alleviated by good governance (Arampatzi et al. 2019) and a timely and effective government response to the crisis (Silva et al, 2021). Second, the study shows that there is a lot of heterogeneity in the relationship between economic decline and SWB. The magnitude of the SWB decline and the correlates associated with the decline vary across groups. This finding suggests that it is important to take heterogeneity within the population into account when designing specific policies to decrease the adverse effects of an economic (or any other) crisis. Third, we show that there are real-life social consequences of economic and political mismanagement which not only lowers individuals’ experienced welfare but also affects people’s voting behavior and election outcomes. Support for the social contract in Brazil has waned, but the contract can be renewed by 33