most countries, car ownership rates are very low. We therefore explore the determinants of vehicle ownership as well as vehicle use. The increase in first-time transport users and the extent to which the demand for private transport through vehicle ownership and use increases faster than the demand for public transport services will have different impacts on changes in carbon emission and inequality.

The paper is organized in three parts. First we present a series of stylized facts between incomes and the different margins of consumption of transport goods and services. We then use LSMS survey micro-data for 18 countries to estimate household Engel-curve expenditure elasticities. We finally use these estimates to simulate changes in transport consumption and the resulting changes in transport carbon footprint and carbon inequality in a business-as-usual scenario as incomes rise to their 2035 levels.

**Main results** We start by documenting the relationship between income and transport consumption across countries with a series of new stylized facts. As countries get richer, (1) more households choose to consume transport goods and services, (2) households spend an increasing share of their expenditure on transport, increasingly for private transport, and (3) car ownership as well as car use increase. We document the extent to which transport consumption significantly varies within countries across income groups. As households get richer, they spend more on transport. Rural households spend relatively less than urban households, except in high-income countries.

We then use LSMS household surveys for 18 countries to identify the main determinants of household consumption of transport goods and services and estimate elasticities of transport expenditures. We use a Zero-Inflated Poisson model given the large number of zeros expenditure and compare its results with a Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model. Our results suggest that total expenditures per capita are a main determinant of transport expenditures. We find that on average, as per capita expenditure increases by 10%, transport expenditures increase by 17% for all transport, by 10% for transport services, and by 20% for private transport. These findings imply that private transport is a luxury good whereas public transport is a normal good. We also document disparities between and within countries, for which more work needs to be done to understand how geographic, social, and cultural differences affect transport choices. Given that most of the increase in carbon emission in low- and middle income countries is expected from first-time acquisition of motor vehicles, we estimate an ordered logistic regression using vehicle ownership data at the household level. In line with the transport literature, we identify a non-linear relationship between the probability of having a car and income. We finally explore the relationship between income and car use by using a panel of country-level data on traveled distance per car. Standard household surveys do not include questions on traveled distance at the household level.

Turning to the last part of the paper, we simulate the implications of rising incomes on transport carbon footprints and carbon inequalities. We focus on vehicle ownership and use as 3