**Table 9 Determinants of working without a contract, 2004-2009 (Mixed-effects logistic regression: Marginal effects)**

||||||||_%points_|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Country group**|**_East -1_**|**_East -2_**|**_North_**|**_West -1_**|**_West -2_**|**_South -1_**|**_South -2_**|
|(% employees<br>without a contract)|(5.14)|(5.07)|(3.16)|(13.80)|(2.53)|(13.14)|(33.15)|
|**Education**(vs.<br>Upper Secondary)||||||||
|||-0.77 +||||||
|Primaryor less|3.41 ***|(5.70***)RO|0.71 *|4.70 ***|0.35|3.42 ***|10.57 ***|
|||-2.73*** +||-9.29*** +||||
|Tertiary|-1.10 *|(7.48***)RO|-1.32 ***|(5.20***)UK|-0.94 **|-3.97 ***|-3.42(*)|
|**Student**|3.24 ***|5.24 ***<br>|2.70 ***|10.30 ***|2.77 ***|3.69 *|14.49 *|
|**Sector (vs. Industry)**||||||||
|Agriculture|3.55 ***|2.63|2.01 ***|5.56 *|0.19|14.90 ***|-1.95|
|Construction, Trade,<br>Hospitality, Personal<br>&Household Services|4.11 ***|3.38 ***|0.67|3.89 ***|1.08|9.96 ***|5.76 *|
|Transport, Finance&<br>Business Services|0.37|2.92 ***|0.15|-0.78(*)|0.43|3.64 **|-5.54(*)|
|Public Services|-2.21 ***|1.03|-1.30 **|-2.58 *|0.22|0.65|-8.42 ***|
|**Age**|-0.48 ***|-0.74 **|-0.34 ***|-0.93 ***|-0.41 ***|-0.19|-2.05 ***|
|**Age-squared/100**|0.53 ***|0.77 **|0.44 ***|1.20 ***|0.53 ***|0.44 **|2.35 ***|
|||1.72** -|||-0.64+(1.53**)|||
|**Female**|-0.86 *|(3.91***)HU|0.21|1.69(*)| (DE+CH)|3.42 ***|3.82 *|
|**With Partner **|-2.15 ***|0.17|-0.14|-0.17|-1.24 **|-4.13 ***|2.22|
|**Female*With Partn.**|0.92||-1.43 *|-1.92|1.17 *|4.30 **||
|**With Children **|0.47|-4.05 ***|-0.42|-0.26|-0.46|-0.01|3.04|
|**Female*With Children **|-0.95||0.86|-1.00|0.90|-1.62|-6.50 *|
|||||||2.67**+IL||
|**Rural **|0.97 ***|-0.78|0.41|0.53|0.55 *| (–7.54***)|-0.01|
|**Minority**<br>**(local born)**|2.06 ***|-1.16|-1.59|-1.19|0.13|2.42+ IL<br>(26.8***)|2.23|
|**One parent**<br>**Immigrant**|1.02 *|1.62|-0.43|-1.48|-0.06|–5.90+IL<br>(30.20***)|12.75 *|
|**Both parents**<br>**Immigrants**|1.85 **|-3.83 **|-3.82|3.03|-0.73|–1.23+IL<br>(23.74***)|-12.0|
|**Immigrant, working**<br>**right by nationality**|1.38(*)|-0.28|-0.67|1.68|0.41|5.52**+ IL<br>(14.96***)|0.16|
|**Other immigrants**|2.13 **||0.04|5.59 ***|-1.20|12.69***|21.38 ***|
|**Return migrant**|1.84 ***|2.28(*)|0.40|-0.62|-0.96|–0.48|0.29|
|**Disabled**|0.65(*)|0.63|0.98 ***|1.63 *|0.37|2.89 **|-0.57|
|**Other controls**|Country a|nd year fixed<br>stat|effects; Mo<br>us when ag|ther‘s highest<br>ed 14;IE*age,|completed educ<br>IE*age-sq.(W|ation level; P<br>est-1)|arents‘ work|
|LogL|-3089.18|-|-|-3054.65|-1154.65|-1749.56|-1471.28|
|# obs.[# countries]|17724[9]|4357[3]|11389[4]|9601[4]|10745[4]|6079[3]|2815[3]|
|# regions|118|27|24|64|34|19|37|
|Random effects s. d.|0.2529***|-|-|0.1032**|0.3479***|0.3829***|0.5266***|
|LR test vs.logistic reg.|P=0.0025|-|-|P = 0.1146|P = 0.0082|P = 0.0000|P = 0.0000|

_Notes:_ East-1: CZ, PL, SK, EE, LV, LT, BG, RU, UA; East-2: HU, RO, SI; North: DK, FI, NO, SE; West-1: UK, IE, NL, and AT; West-2: DE, FR, BE, and CH; South-1: ES, PT, and IL; South-2: IT, GR, CY. The models include region-level random effects. For East-2 and North, these effects are integrated over the sample, i.e. population-averaged models estimated by the GEE method are presented. ―Regions‖ are NUTS level 1 for DE, ES, FR and UK; NUTS level 2 for the Nordic countries, IE, CH, CZ, HU, PL, SK, RO, PT, GR, and IL; NUTS level 3 for the Baltic countries, NL, BG and SI; 10 federal regions for Russia, and 26 [ _oblast_ level] regions for Ukraine. Marginal effects are based on fixed parts of the models and conditional on working as employee (i.e. not corrected for selection into paid employment). (*), *, **, * -** marginal e **f** fects significantly different from zero at 12%, 10%, 5%, 1% level, respectively. _Source:_ Calculation with ESS data.

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