# **Table A.8 Ordered Probit Regression Estimates with Ordinal IEG Outcome Ratings, Employing Freedom House Measures: Marginal Effects Reported for Public Sector Projects**

|||||Marginal Probabilit|yof...|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Variable|Highly<br>Unsatisfactory|Unsatisfactory<br>Rating|Moderately<br>Unsatisfactory Rating|Moderately<br>Satisfactory|Satisfactory<br>Rating|Highly<br>Satisfactory|
|||Rating|||Rating||Rating|
||DPI Share of Programmatic Parties|-0.0221**|-0.0943***|-0.0562***|-0.0179**|0.162***|0.0286**|
|||(-2.22)|(-2.79)|(-2.80)|(-1.99)|(2.92)|(2.43)|
||FH Freedom Status Rating: Not Free|<br>0.0142|<br>0.0579*|<br>0.0312*|<br>0.00315|<br>-0.0926*|<br>-0.0139*|
||[dummy]|||||||
|||(1.61)|(1.66)|(1.85)|(0.43)|(-1.82)|(-1.82)|
||FH Freedom Status Rating: Free [dummy]|0.00128|0.00625|0.00401|0.00169|-0.0111|-0.00211|
|||(0.33)|(0.32)|(0.32)|(0.31)|(-0.32)|(-0.32)|
||ICRG<br>Bureaucratic<br>Quality<br>Rating|-0.000504|-0.00215|-0.00128|-0.000408|0.00369|0.000650|
||[0−6]|||||||
|es||(-0.18)|(-0.18)|(-0.18)|(-0.18)|(0.18)|(0.18)|
|riat|Net ODA Received (% of GNI)|<br>-0.000520*|<br>-0.00222**|<br>-0.00132**|<br>-0.000421*|<br>0.00380**|<br>0.000671*|
|va||(-1.89)|(-2.09)|(-2.10)|(-1.80)|(2.14)|(1.80)|
|Co|IBRD Loans and IDA Credits (DOD, % of|<br>0.00702|<br>0.0299|<br>0.0178|<br>0.00569|<br>-0.0514|<br>-0.00907|
|xt|GDP)|||||||
|onte||(0.27)|(0.27)|(0.27)|(0.28)|(-0.27)|(-0.27)|
|C|External Debt Stocks, Public and Publicly|0.00499|0.0213|0.0127|0.00405|-0.0365|-0.00645|
|try|Guaranteed (PPG) (DOD, % of GDP)|||||||
|un||(0.68)|(0.67)|(0.69)|(0.65)|(-0.68)|(-0.69)|
|Co|GDP per Capita, PPP (constant 2005<br>international $)|-5.58e-08|-0.000000238|-0.000000142|-4.52e-08|0.000000408|7.20e-08|
|||(-0.05)|(-0.05)|(-0.05)|(-0.05)|(0.05)|(0.05)|
||GDP per Capita Growth (annual %)|<br>-0.000968**|<br>-0.00413**|<br>-0.00246**|<br>-0.000785|<br>0.00709**|<br>0.00125**|
|||(-2.04)|(-2.17)|(-2.27)|(-1.54)|(2.24)|(2.22)|
||Inflation, Consumer Prices (annual %)|<br>0.00000343|<br>0.0000146|<br>0.00000871|<br>0.00000278|<br>-0.0000251|<br>-0.00000443|
|||(1.03)|(0.93)|(0.95)|(0.82)|(-0.96)|(-0.92)|
||School Enrollment, Secondary (% gross)|0.0000629|0.000268|0.000160|0.0000510|-0.000460|-0.0000812|
|||(0.51)|(0.54)|(0.52)|(0.51)|(-0.53)|(-0.50)|
||Life Expectancy at Birth, Total (years)|0.000590|0.00251|0.00150|0.000478|-0.00432|-0.000762|
|||(0.96)|(0.85)|(0.92)|(0.82)|(-0.92)|(-1.01)|
||Administrative and Civil Service Reform|0.000181|0.000772|0.000460|0.000147|-0.00133|-0.000234|
|t||(1.29)|(1.43)|(1.49)|(1.43)|(-1.48)|(-1.41)|
|ten<br>s|Decentralization|<br>-0.000150|<br>-0.000639|<br>-0.000381|<br>-0.000122|<br>0.00110|<br>0.000194|
|on<br>ate||(-0.81)|(-0.84)|(-0.81)|(-0.79)|(0.83)|(0.77)|
|m C<br>ari|Public Expenditure, Financial Management,|0.000172|0.000733|0.000437|0.000139|-0.00126|-0.000222|
|or<br>ov|and Procurement|||||||
|ef<br>C||(1.15)|(1.25)|(1.22)|(1.11)|(-1.23)|(-1.18)|
|R|Tax Policy and Administration|0.000161|0.000686|0.000409|0.000130|-0.00118|-0.000208|
|||(0.57)|(0.60)|(0.61)|(0.57)|(-0.60)|(-0.58)|
||Region Controls|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|er<br>iate|<br>Project Management Controls at|No|No|No|No|No|No|
|th<br>ar<br>|s<br>Effectiveness|||||||
|O<br>ov|<br>Process and Risk Indicators|No|No|No|No|No|No|
|C|Project Management Controls ex post|No|No|No|No|No|No|
||<br>Observations|<br>674|<br>674|<br>674|<br>674|<br>674|<br>674|
||McFadden’s R<sup>2</sup>|0.047||||||
||McKelvey and Zinova’s R<sup>2</sup>|0.141||||||
||Percent Correctly Predicted|41.54%||||||
||<br>Proportional Reduction in Error|9.01%||||||

Marginal effects; _t_ statistics in parentheses (d) for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1

* _<u>p</u>_ < 0.10, ** _<u>p</u>_ < 0.05, *** _<u>p</u>_ < 0.01

_Note:_ Estimates employ the same set of covariates as model 3 in annex table A.7. DPI = database of political institutions; GDP = gross domestic product; PPP = purchasing power parity; ODA = official development assistance; DAC = Development Assistance Committee; IBRD = International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; IDA = International Development Association; DOD = debt outstanding and disbursed.

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