records of the distribution companies may be fairly accurate with respect to the number of households connected. Hence, to obtain a yearly estimate of access it is necessary to interpolate between successive census years, and to extrapolate beyond the most recent census year. These considerations are important in the case of Pakistan.

The World Bank’s World Development Indicators shows access increasing steadily from 59 percent in 1990 to 98 percent in 2014, although a study of South Asia pointed out that, while access rates are nearly 100 percent in urban Pakistan, in certain parts of rural Pakistan rates are still very low.<sup>31</sup> However, a summary of the 2017 population census has just been released and this points to a rather different access rate.<sup>32</sup> According to previous estimates the population in 2016 was 198 million, with an average household size of 6.45. The power system statistics indicated that 22.8 million households were connected to the grid, giving an access rate of 74 percent. The new census (the first for 19 years) indicated that in 2017 the population was 207 million with 32.2 million households (average household size of 6.43). If the number of connections were 22.8 million then the access rate would be 71 percent. A breakdown by region indicated that in Punjab the access rate was 92 percent, in Sindh 37 percent, in Balochistan 24 percent, and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 71 percent. Some households have solar home systems or other forms of off-grid supply and the access to electricity from all forms of supply will be higher than the grid connected values.

The State of Industry Report for 2017, published by NEPRA, also provides some related information through statistics for each DISCO for each of the years from 2012 to 2016 of the percentage of villages in their area that have not yet been electrified. These statistics seem questionable in several cases. The percentages of total electrified villages fell in some cases or rose and then fell. The total number of villages covered by some DISCOS changed dramatically from year to year, and without a clear trend.

The picture for access is then one dominated by uncertain statistics. The estimate of 98 percent access for 2014 would indicate that the government had been extremely successful in bringing electricity to the population, while a value of around 70 percent in 2017, when the value for 1990 may have been around 60 percent, suggests modest progress. It is noticeable that there was no major rural electrification scheme or policy that could have explained an increase to 98 percent access and, given that the state-owned DISCOs have not been run efficiently, it would be strange if they had managed to increase the access rates so markedly with no government assistance. The indications are that the lower access figure is the more plausible and that utilities have made only modest progress in improving access.

On **affordability** there is limited material available. The retail pricing approach adopted in Pakistan involves an estimated revenue-required tariff determined by NEPRA, and a notified tariff (which is the one actually paid) determined by the government. The former takes into account

> “<sup>31</sup> In the Dark: How much do power sector distortions cost South Asia.?” 2016, World Bank Group.

> 32 https://saadiaqayyum.wordpress.com/2017/09/07/census-shows-the-real-state-of-pakistans-electrification/

31