# **Table 12. Combined Bounds Test**

## **Bound Test 4: Combined One Standard Deviation Shock**

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

|**Actual**|||**Project**|**ions**||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|2005|2006|2007|2008|2009|2010|2011||
||||||||**Debt-stabilizing**|
|**I. Baseline Medium-Term Pro**|**jections**||||||**primary**|
||||||||**deficit**|
|Public sector debt 1/<br>61.2|**76.9**|**97.2**|**96.3**|**95.1**|**93.8**|**92.2**||
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (net)<br>17.1|22.9|29.9|30.4|32.3|34.8|38.4||
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (gross)<br>22.7|28.2|35.0|35.3|36.9|39.2|42.6||
|o/w domestic debt (net) 3/<br>44.1|54.0|67.4|65.9|62.8|59.0|53.8||
|Change in public sector debt<br>-2.0|15.6|20.4|-1.0|-1.2|-1.3|-1.6|0.0|
|Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)<br>-1.7|15.6|20.4|-1.0|-1.2|-1.3|-1.6|0.0|
|<br>Primary deficit<br>-6.5|-3.3|-3.3|-6.5|-6.5|-6.5|-6.5|**-4.6**|
|<br>Revenue and grants<br>67.2|66.0|65.3|65.3|65.3|65.3|65.3||
|<br>Primary (noninterest) expenditure<br>60.7|62.6|62.0|58.8|58.8|58.8|58.8||
|Seigniorage<br>-0.6|0.2|0.2|0.6|0.6|0.6|0.6|0.6|
|Automatic debt dynamics 2/<br>5.5|19.1|24.0|4.9|4.7|4.6|4.3|4.0|
|Contribution from interest rate/growth differential<br>4.5|19.3|24.1|5.1|5.0|4.8|4.7|4.4|
|<br>Of which contribution from real interest rate<br>7.4|18.3|22.9|9.6|9.4|9.2|9.0|8.7|
|Contribution from domestic real interest rate 4/<br>6.2|17.0|21.1|6.9|6.7|6.4|6.0|5.5|
|Contribution from real interest rate on foreign debt 5/<br>1.6|1.8|2.2|2.7|2.8|2.9|3.1|3.3|
|Contribution from real interest rate on net foreign assets 6/<br>-0.4|-0.4|-0.4|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|
|Of which contribution from real GDP growth<br>-2.9|1.0|1.3|-4.5|-4.4|-4.4|-4.3|-4.4|
|<br>Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation 7/<br>0.9|-0.2|-0.1|-0.1|-0.2|-0.3|-0.3|-0.4|
|<br>Other identified debt-creating flows<br>0.0|-0.4|-0.5|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Privatization receipts (negative)<br>0.0|-0.4|-0.5|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities<br>0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)<br>0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Residual, including asset changes (2-3)<br>-0.3|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Public debt in percent of revenues 1/<br>91.1|116.5|148.9|147.4|145.6|143.6|141.2||
|Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio<br>-4.5|-18.9|-23.7|-5.5|-5.3|-5.2|-5.0|-4.6|
|Required deficit reduction<br>-2.0|15.6|20.4|-1.0|-1.2|-1.3|-1.6|-1.9|
|**Gross financing**5/<br>36.9|44.4|55.5|45.2|43.2|41.0|38.0||
|in billions of U.S. dollars<br>128.9|151.7|191.3|167.7|173.3|177.7|178.9||
||||||||For debt|
|**Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions**|||||||stabilization|
|Real GDP growth (in percent)<br>4.8|-1.6|-1.6|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|
|Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/<br>15.9|25.3|23.8|13.0|12.8|12.7|12.5|12.5|
|Average nominal interest rate on public domestic debt (in percent) 11/<br>22.0|46.2|44.6|14.6|14.6|14.6|14.6|14.6|
|Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt<br>10.3|10.2|10.3|10.9|10.9|10.9|10.9|10.9|
|<br>Average nominal interest rate on NFA (in percent) 12/|10.2|10.3|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|
|<br>Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in GDP deflator, percent)<br>9.1|19.3|19.3|9.5|9.3|9.2|9.0|9.0|
|Average real interest rate on domestic debt (nominal rate minus change in domestic CPI, p<br>15.2|40.2|40.2|11.2|11.1|11.1|11.1||
|<br>Average real interest rate on foreign debt debt (nominal rate minus change in U.S. CPI, percent)|7.8|7.8|8.4|8.4|8.4|8.4||
|Change in the real exchange rate (Local currency per US dollar) 13/<br>51|-10|-05|-04|-08|-08|-10|-10|
|<br>.<br>Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)<br>9.3|.<br>2.5|.<br>1.4|.<br>0.5|.<br>0.2|.<br>0.2|.<br>0.0|.<br>0.0|
|<br><br>Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)<br>0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||
|<br>Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)<br>-8.5|-2.4|-1.4|-0.5|-0.2|-0.2|0.0||
|<br>Inflation rate (in percent)<br>6.8|6.0|4.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|
|US Inflation rate (in percent)<br>2.7|2.4|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|
|Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator in percent)<br>5.9|1.5|-2.7|-0.4|5.0|5.0|5.0||
|,<br><br>Base Money (percent of GDP)<br>7.8|7.7|7.7|7.7|7.7|7.7|7.7||

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