9

**Table 2.** Goodness of Fit Estimates for Synthetic Jordan, EFW Index

||**OIC All**|**OIC Minus PAK**|**OIC SAL**|
|---|---|---|---|
|_Pre-treatment fit_||||
|(1) RMSPE|0.097|0.104|0.119|
|_Permutation tests_||||
|(2) Pr(post RMSPE≥Jordan)|0.154|0.077|0.000|
|(3) Pr(pre/post RMSPE≥Jordan)|0.308|0.231|0.000|
|(4) Pr(pre RMSPE≥Jordan)|0.692|0.769|0.875|

_Source_ : Authors’ analysis of the Gwartney, Lawson, and Hall (2017) Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index. Additional data come from the Polity IV dataset, Freedom House, the Database of Political Institutions (DPI), and the JuriGlobe database. _Note_ : Table presents goodness of fit metrics for Synthetic Jordan with the EFW index as the outcome of interest. Goodness of fit for Synthetic Jordan is denoted by its Root Mean Squared Prediction Error (RMSPE). Placebo tests reassign the 1990 refugee surge to each control country and report the fraction of countries with a posttreatment RSMPE greater than Jordan’s RMPSE, normalized ratio of pre- to post-treatment RMSPE greater than Jordan’s RMSPE, and pre-treatment RMSPE greater than Jordan’s. OIC denotes the full Organisation of Islamic Cooperation donor pool; OIC minus PAK denotes the OIC donor without Pakistan; and OIC SAL denotes the donor pool limited to OIC countries that received Structural Adjustment Loans (SALs) from either the World Bank or International Monetary Fund (IMF).

**Table 3.** Predictor Balance for Synthetic Jordan

||**Real**<br>**Jordan**|**Sample**<br>**means**|**OIC**<br>**All**|**OIC**<br>**minus PAK**|**OIC**<br>**SAL**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|EFW (1975)|4.830|4.663|4.921|4.926|4.893|
|EFW (1985)|5.500|4.546|5.456|5.483|5.482|
|Political rights|5.667|5.143|5.556|5.462|5.489|
|Civil liberties|5.667|5.143|5.561|5.477|5.525|
|Exec. constraints|1.333|0.238|1.907|1.854|1.917|
|Presidential|1.000|0.595|0.328|0.232|0.297|
|Parliamentary|0.000|0.190|0.034|0.001|0.031|
|Civil law|1.000|0.643|0.899|0.998|0.908|
|Common law|0.000|0.357|0.101|0.002|0.092|
|Muslim law|1.000|0.714|0.739|0.769|0.774|

_Source_ : Authors’ analysis of the Gwartney, Lawson, and Hall (2017) Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) index. Additional data come from the Polity IV dataset, Freedom House, the Database of Political Institutions (DPI), and the JuriGlobe database. _Note_ : Table presents pre-treatment predictor variables for Jordan, their corresponding pre-treatment sample means, and the weighted averages used to construct Synthetic Jordan. OIC denotes the full Organisation of Islamic Cooperation donor pool; OIC minus PAK denotes the OIC donor without Pakistan; and OIC SAL denotes the donor pool limited to OIC countries that received Structural Adjustment Loans (SALs) from either the World Bank or International Monetary Fund (IMF). ‘Political rights’ and ‘civil liberties’ refer to the respective Freedom House Freedom in the World report indexes. ‘Executive constraints’ reference to the Polity IV measure of executive constraints _xconst_ , ‘Presidential’ and ‘parliamentary’ are dummies equal to one for countries with presidential or parliamentary political systems as recorded in the DPI, respectively. Civil, Common, and Muslim law are dummies equal to one for a country’s legal system belonging to each category as reported by the JuriGlobe database.

Table 2 presents goodness of fit indicators for the Synthetic Jordans. The first row indicates the specification’s Root Mean Square Predicted Error (RMSPE), which measures the distance between the synthetic control unit and the predictors used to construct it during the pretreatment period. The predictor variables and their weighted values are listed in table 3, and the country weights for each specification are listed in table 4.

Table 1 column (1) is the preferred model, as it constructs Synthetic Jordan from the Full OIC list of countries with an EFW score and has the best pretreatment fit with an RMSPE of 0.097. Table 2 and Figure 1 show that Real Jordan had a gap of 0.204 in the Full OIC’s first post-treatment year of 1995 but a _p_ - value of 0.692, meaning that Real Jordan’s EFW score was 0.204 points above Synthetic Jordan and the difference is insignificant. Although the gap is insignificant, the trend changed beginning in 1990 and Real Jordan’s EFW score is significantly higher in 2000, 2005, and 2010 with a _p_ -value of 0.0 in each year. In those statistically significant years, the gap between Synthetic Jordan’s projected EFW score and its actual score was 1.15 points in 2000, 1.06 points in 2005, and nearly 0.80 points in 2010. These