steadily improving, from 2.1 percent a year in the 1980s to 3.5 percent in the 1990s and 4.9 percent since 2000. In recent years, growth has been approaching 5.6 percent annually. The top performers in this group include Ghana, Mozambique, Senegal, and Tanzania plus the bright spots mentioned for landlocked countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Rwanda, and Uganda.

_Fragile states_ without significant oil resources—14 countries—still account for 18 percent of the total population and 10 percent of total income in the region.<sup>13</sup> For the most part, GDP growth in this group is stuck at less than 2.5 percent, but it improved to 3.2 percent during 2004–06. The challenges faced by this group are many and daunting, as has been portrayed persuasively by sources such as Collier (2007) and the World Bank (2007b, 2007c). Even so, there are hopeful signs; a few countries have managed to turn around at least their output growth (as reported in table 1): The Gambia, Liberia, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Sierra Leone.

**_Regional  Groupings._** There are several overlapping regional groupings in SubSaharan Africa. Among those presented in table 1.2, the East Africa Community (EAC),<sup>14</sup> the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC),<sup>15</sup> and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)<sup>16</sup> did the best, at 6.0, 6.4, and 6.9 percent, respectively, during 2004–06. The Southern African Development Community (SADC)<sup>17</sup> and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)<sup>18</sup> did as well as the regional average in recent years. Regional groups below the African average include the western part of the franc zone—the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)—and the island economies in the Indian Ocean Commission.<sup>19</sup> WAEMU has the fixed exchange rate but not the oil resources of the eastern part.<sup>20</sup>

In sum, there is therefore evidence that economic growth is accelerating and registering across several types of countries, not just oil-exporting and resource-rich countries, but also oil-importing, landlocked, and—to some extent—fragile countries. Are country patterns with respect to growth becoming less defined? Arbache and Page (2008) found no obvious pattern when classifying countries according to long-term growth, geography, and geology, thus suggesting that initial conditions and other factors

> 13 These countries are Burundi, the Central African Republic, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Eritrea, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Togo, and Zimbabwe.

> 14 Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

> 15 Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo.

> 16 Angola, Burundi, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial. Guinea, Gabon, Rwanda, and São Tomé and Príncipe.

> 17 SADC comprises Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. SADC is the largest regional group in table 1.2 (about 52 percent of Africa’s GDP).

18 ECOWAS comprises Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

19 WAEMU comprises Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.

> 20 The Indian Ocean Commission comprises Comoros, Mauritius, Madagascar, and the Seychelles.

8