contract as a form of queuing. It seems that the queuing role of this type of contract tended to increase at least since 2005 (when the observed transitions to full time open term contracts were 13.4%) until 2008 (when they reached 19.2%).

It seems that the way from the least safe (and most probably shadow) part time and fixed term contract to the safest full time and open term contracts leads through full time and fixed term contracts. Although this way seems to be quite cumbersome and risky, it is still better than waiting in unemployment. On the other hand, self-employment seems to be a more long term choice (or necessity) and as such it does not seem to be a form of queuing. The observed incidence of entering a full time/open term contract for the self-employed is as low as for those unemployed.

In order to run an econometric analysis of the relationship between the probability of shadow employment in year ―t‖ and the relative probabilities of various transitions on labor market between year ―t‖ and year ―t+1‖, I have estimated the series of multinomial logistic models in which the labor market status in ―t+1‖ (be it one of types of contract or lack of employment) was the dependent variable and the state on the labor market in ―t‖ (―contract‖ variable) and the estimated probability of shadow employment (―shadow‖ variable) in ―t‖ were the main explanatory variables. The standard set of control variables has been applied. As the consequence of such a specification of the model, the sample in the starting period (―t‖) had to be limited to the employed population only, since a series of variables including the ―shadow‖ variable and the ―contract‖ variable are defined only for those employed.

The results of estimations for the ―contract‖ variable for all years are presented in Table 5. The estimated coefficients should be interpreted as Relative Risk Ratios (RRR) of transition probabilities i.e. the relative risk of transition to state X as compared to the risk of transition to the base category (being the full time, open term employment) is N (where N = the presented coefficient) times higher for the given starting state than for the baseline category (also full time, open term employment). So for example (see the first coefficient in the upper left corner of Table 5) the relative risk of transition to no-employment as compared to the risk of transition to full time/open term employment for those with full time and fixed term contracts is 11.07 times higher than for those with full time/open term contracts.

**Table 5 Estimated RRR ratios for transition probabilities among various labor market arrangements depending on the type of contract.**

|<br>||**2003- 200**<br>|**4**<br>|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Starting<br>state -<br>below<br>Resulting<br>state -<br>right|No employment vs<br>full time open term<br>employment(FTOP)|Full time fixed<br>term employment<br>vs(FTOP)|Part time open<br>term employment<br>vs(FTOP)|Part time fixed<br>term employment<br>vs(FTOP)|Self<br>Employment<br>vs(FTOP)|
|Full time fixed term<br>employment|11.1|174.5|3.4|49.3|8.6|
|Part time open term<br>employment|8.3|6.1|827.0|47.9|9.2|
|Part time fixed term<br>employment|19.8|99.8|131.7|3277.6|18.3|
|Self Employment|43.1|56.8<br>**2004-2005**|3.9<br>|111.2|7824.1|