capita distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa. For instance, seven countries in the region recorded average annual per capita growth rates that exceeded 3 percent in the period 1960-2019, whereas income per capita contracted in fourteen countries during the same period. The average growth differential between these two groups of countries was about 5 percent—a margin that can produce rapid shifts in relative income per capita over time. By looking at the growth performance across subperiods, **Table 1** hints that the evolution of income per capita for the region as a whole cannot be characterized by a time trend deterministic model (either upward or downward sloping). Instead, growth per capita in the region swings from periods of fair to poor performance. Still, the great deal of heterogeneity in the evolution of GDP per capita across countries in the region signals that: (a) there is a wide dispersion of growth per capita between top and bottom performers, and (b) every country is unique in its evolution.

Inspecting the evolution of real GDP per capita for each individual country in the region, in the spirit of Pritchett (2000), reveals a diverse landscape of growth patterns in the region. Specifically, the different growth topographies exhibited by Sub-Saharan African countries can be classified into three broad groups: (a) countries with an upward-sloping trend (uphill), (b) countries with long swings (mountain ranges), and (c) stagnant countries (plains)—if not declining. **Figure 4** describes the criteria that we used to classify the growth patterns of Sub-Saharan African countries—which is derived after visually examining the trends and fluctuations of each country’s GDP per capita time series. **Table 2** lists the countries that fall into each of the three groups. Unlike industrial countries where growth is steady with occasional recessions followed by quick recoveries, long swings and stagnant periods are prevalent in the region which have contributed to the low, short-lived, and volatile growth at the regional level.

**Figure 4. Three General Growth Patterns of Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960s to 2010s.**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Group 1: Growing (Uphill)<br>Upward trend overall;<br> Values during the last decade is on average more than double the level in the<br>beginning decade; and<br>Values do not shrink by over one half of historical high in any year.<br><!-- End of picture text -->

|Group 1: Growing (Uphill)<br>Upward trend overall;<br>Values during the last decade is on average more than double the level in the<br>beginning decade; and<br>Values do not shrink by over one half of historical high in any year.|
|---|
|Group 2: Swinging (Mountain Ranges)<br>Outside Group 1; and<br>The minimum and maximum values do not fall within the beginning and<br>ending decades; and<br>The maximum value is more than double the size of the minimum value.|
|Group 3: Stagnant (Plain)<br>Outside Group 1 and 2; and<br>The maximum value is less than double the size of minimum value<br>throughout the six decades.|

<!-- Start of picture text --> Group 2: Swinging (Mountain Ranges)<br>Outside Group 1; and<br> The minimum and maximum values do not fall within the beginning and<br>ending decades; and<br>The maximum value is more than double the size of the minimum value.<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Group 3: Stagnant (Plain)<br>Outside Group 1 and 2; and<br> The maximum value is less than double the size of minimum value<br>throughout the six decades.<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Note:_ The value(s) in the diagram refer to real GDP per capita (at chained PPPs in 2017 US$) from Penn World Table version 10.01 (Feenstra, Inklaar and Timmer 2015).