31 Finally, the sex distribution of the proposed World Bank estimates does not seem reasonable on the basis of 1986 census data and post-1980 data on settler arrivals and on permanent departures. The sex ratio of permanent settlers from 1982/1983 to 1986/1987 was just under 100 and, as mentioned earlier, the propensity to leave Australia permanently is about the same for male settlers as for female settlers. The sex ratio of foreign-born persons who had been living in Australia for less than five years at the time of the 1986 census was also less than 100 (97.9). In fact, the sex distribution was quite even for all of the major sending countries eXcept for the Philippines, which had a large preponderance of females, and Vietnam, which had a large preponderance of males (see Table 10). Therefore, I would recommend dividing net immigrants equally between the sexes for each five-year period from 1980 to 2000.

# Canada

The gross immigration component of international migration for Canada is easy to estimate because Canada has excellent statistics on legal immigration and because illegal immigration to Canada is relatively small. The only real problem in estimating net international migration is in calculating the emigration component, since Canada does not collect statistics on emigration.

Legal Immigration. Over the course of the last 35 years, immigration to Canada has fluctuated widely reaching an annual level of over 200,000 in three years and falling below 100,000 per year in six years. However, at least 70,000 persons per year have immigrated in every year since 1949 (see Figure 5). In the early 1980s, immigration to Canada was running at an average level of over 130,000 persons per year, but immigration dropped sharply to less than 90,000 per year from 1983 to 1985 (Table 14), largely in response to Canada's economic recession at that time. However, in the last two years immigration has resumed an upward trend, approaching 100,000 in 1986 (99,219) and exceeding 150,000 in 1987 (152,098), the highest level since 1975 (unpublished tables, Employment and Immigration Canada). In the 1981-1985 period, 41.7 percent of immigrants to Canada originated in Asia, 30.6 percent were from Europe, and 21.8 percent from the Americas (Zlotnick, 1988a). By 1987, Europe had continued its long decline (to 24.7 percent) while Asia (44.3 percent) and the Americas (24.2 percent) increased their relative shares (unpublished tables, Employment and Immigration Canada).

Since 1979, Canadian immigration has been subject to a quota system. Until 1981, the targets of the quota system were established annually, but since that time the targets have been set over a three-year horizon (Zlotnick, 1988b). Although the actual number of immigrants has often deviated from the target level (see Table 15), Howith (1988) argues that the management of the immigration program has been largely successful. The largest differences between actual immigration and the announced target levels were due to two unforeseen developments -- the Indochinese refugee situation and severe economic recession. The 1989 intake quota will probably be about 125,000-135,000. The current pressures are to increase the quota and a decrease is considered very unlikely.