rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
13 stimulate growth and adjustment, this will not be sustainable without a concomitant expansion in productive capacity.

I have collected as well comparable data on economic policy choices in these countries. The ratio of government current expenditure to GNP (GOVGNP) is a measure of fiscal policy stance. The ratio of money, broadly defined, to nominal GNP (MON) is an indicator of the monetization and financial deepening of the economy. The normalized real exchange rate index (RERA, RERB) illustrates government's efforts to maintain competitiveness in international trade. The trade regime index (TRAREG) is drawn from rankings provided in World DeveloDment Report 1987 and measures the overall outward orientation of the economy.

The environment within which structural adjustment policies are made and economic performance is attained is characterized by the countryspecific realizations of the external variables cited above. The real international interest rate (RR) is defined ex Rost by subtracting the US inflation rate from the country's average nominal rate on international borrowing. International debt is total debt, including private, public and publicly guaranteed, deflated to billions of 1980 US dollars. It is stated in ger ca2ita form, and is divided into a longer-term component (LTDPC) and a short-term component (STDPC).12 The terms of trade (TOTA, TOTB) is the ratio of average export to average import prices normalized as described in the appendix. It is likely that there are other common international influences on economic performance in these countries as well, and to measure the influence of these I introduce a series of year-specific dummy variables (D7 for 1977 through D5 for 1985) as explanatory variables. These will register, for example, the growth in world real demand for imports or
De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff (2013) “The demand for, and consequences of, formalization among informal firms in Sri Lanka”, _American Economic Journal: Applied Economics_ 5(2): 122-150.

De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff (2012) “One-time transfers of cash or capital have long-lasting effects on microenterprises in Sri Lanka”, _Science_ 335(6071): 962-966.

De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff (2010) “Wage subsidies for microenterprises”, _The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings_ 100(2): 614-618.

De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff (2009) “Are women more credit constrained? Experimental evidence on gender and microenterprise returns”, _American Economic Journal: Applied Economics_ 1(3): 1-32.

De Mel, Suresh, David McKenzie, and Christopher Woodruff (2008) “Returns to capital in microenterprises: Evidence from a field experiment”, _The Quarterly Journal of Economics_ 123(4): 1329-1372.

Demirgüc-Kunt, Asli, Leora F. Klapper, and Georgios A. Panos (2006) “Entrepreneurship in post-conflict transition. The role of informality and access to finance”, _Economics of Transition_ 19(1): 27-78.Dunne, Timothy, Mark J. Roberts, and Larry Samuelson (1989) "The growth and failure of US manufacturing plants", _The Quarterly Journal of Economics_ 104(4): 671-698.

Ericson, Richard and Ariel Pakes (1995) “Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work.” _Review of Economic Studies_ 62 (January): 53–82.

Evans, David S., and Boyan Jovanovic (1989) ‘‘An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints.’’ _Journal of Political Economy_ 97(4):808–27.

Evans, David S. (1987) "The relationship between firm growth, size, and age: Estimates for 100 manufacturing industries." _The Journal of Industrial Economics 3_ _<mark>5</mark>_ <mark>(4):</mark> 567-581.

Fafchamps, Marcel, David McKenzie, Simon Quinn and Christopher Woodruff (2014) “Microenterprise growth and the flypaper effect: Evidence from a randomized experiment in Ghana”, _Journal of Development Economics_ 106: 211-226.

Fajnzylber, Pablo, William Maloney, and Gabriel Montes Rojas (2006) “Microenterprise Dynamics in Developing Countries: How Similar are They to Those in the Industrialized World? Evidence from Mexico”, _World Bank Economic Review_ 20(3): 389-419.

Frazer, Garth (2005) “Which Firms Die? A Look at Manufacturing Firm Exit in Ghana”, _Economic Development and Cultural Change_ 53(3): 585-617.

Gindling, T.H. and David Newhouse (2014) “Self-employment in the Developing World”, _World Development_ 56: 313-31.

Groh, Matthew and David McKenzie (2016) “Macroinsurance for microenterprises: A randomized experiment in post-revolution Egypt”, _Journal of Development Economics_ 118: 13-25.

Hopenhayn, Hugo (1992) “Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long-Run Equilibrium.” _Econometrica_ 60:1127–50.

26
Table 7: Further robustness checks

|||All countrie|s||
|---|---|---|---|---|
||Spatia<br>|l error<br>|Two <br>|factors<br>|
||Trade|Distance|Trade|Distance|
|_gt−_1|0.328|0.330|0.334|0.329|
||(24.730)|(24.649)|(24.842)|(24.466)|
|_Wgt_|-0.316|-0.211|0.355|0.114|
||(-0.046)|(-1.928)|(12.276)|(5.324)|
|_Wgt−_1|0.077|0.144|-0.134|0.024|
||(0.038)|(3.237)|(-2.846)|(0.919)|
|Spatial error|0.646|0.305|||
||(0.095)|(3.067)|||
|Pesaran CD statstic|1.190|3.203|-0.580|-0.577|
|(p-value)|(0.117)|(0.001)|(0.281)|(0.282)|
|Exponent of CSD|0.694|0.701|0.487|0.482|
|_R_<sup>2</sup>|0.222|0.240|0.311|0.305|
| ̄_R_<sup>2</sup>|0.197|0.215|0.260|0.258|
||Ad|vanced coun|tries||
||Spatia<br>|l error|Two <br>|factors|
||Trade|Distance|Trade|Distance|
|_gt−_1|0.341|0.376|0.426|0.378|
||(10.884)|(11.006)|(13.983)|(11.855)|
|_Wgt_|0.539|0.211|0.779|0.244|
||(2.663)|(0.294)|(42.005)|(5.051)|
|_Wgt−_1|0.015|-0.262|-0.245|-0.123|
||(0.096)|(-1.238)|(-6.567)|(-1.672)|
|Spatial error|0.390<br>(1.428)|-0.007<br>(-0.009)|||
|Pesaran CD statstic|4.060|-1.537|2.391|-3.381|
|(p-value)|(0.000)|(0.062)|(0.008)|(0.000)|
|Exponent of CSD|0.735|0.370|0.638|0.477|
|_R_<sup>2</sup>|0.572|0.516|0.694|0.630|
| ̄_R_<sup>2</sup>|0.537|0.479|0.643|0.570|

Notes: GDP growth is the first difference of the log of real GDP. ’Exponent of CSD’ is the exponent of cross-sectional dependence of Bailey, Kapetanios and Pesaran (2015). The sample period covers 1970-2016.

# **4.6 Forecasting performance**

Properly accounting for cross-sectional dependence can help improve the accuracy and efficiency of growth forecasts. This has been illustrated by Bjornland, Ravazzolo, and 27
# **2.   The Limited Availability of Skills**

_Even after controlling for per capita income, Mozambique is unusual in terms of the limited availability of skills and the limited use of professionals and professional services, with acute regional disparities._

# **2.1 A Cross-Country Perspective on Skills**

The household survey of 2003 shows that only 0.6% of the labor force working in the private sector in wage employment has completed tertiary education while 6% of the labor force has completed secondary education or technical training (World Bank, 2008). These figures show an improvement relative to the household survey of 1997 but are still very low in absolute terms.<sup>4</sup> Also, as of 1998, less than 3% of the staff in Mozambique’s public administration had tertiary education and only 12% had completed secondary education (PRSP, 2001).

Even though there have been significant improvements in the state of education in Mozambique over the last 15 years, Mario, Fry, Levey, and Chilundo (2003) argue that all forms of education are still scarce in the country and that there is a dramatic funneling at each successive stage of the educational system. Figure 1 shows that even after controlling for income per capita, Mozambique is an outlier regarding its indicators on education inputs. It is not surprising therefore to see in Figure 2 that Mozambique’s indicators on education outputs are low even by low-income country standards. For example, the gross secondary school enrollment rate of 15.5% in Mozambique in 2006 is strikingly low relative to rates of 29.1% in Malawi and 36.1% in Zambia.<sup>5</sup> Despite a threefold increase between 1990 and 2002, Brito (2003) finds that the number of students enrolled in higher education institutions in Mozambique as of 2002 is a microscopic segment of the population: only 40 of every 100,000 inhabitants compared to 596 of every 100,000 inhabitants in Botswana. Statistics from the Ministry of Education and Culture show that as of 2002, students enrolled in higher education institutions in Mozambique represented 0.38% of the potential student population (18-29 year olds). That share increased to about 0.7% in 2005 and 1% in 2006.

> 4 Specifically in the 1997 household survey 0.0% ( _3.7%_ ) of the labor force working in the private sector in wage employment has complete tertiary education ( _complete secondary education or technical training_ ). 5 The low secondary enrollment rates relative to what would be expected at Mozambique’s income level are verified both for lower-secondary as well as for upper-secondary education.

11
# **Summary Findings**

Since the adoption of the _doi moi_ or renovation policy in 1986, Vietnam has been undergoing a transition from central planning to a socialist market oriented economy. This has translated into strong economic growth, led by the industrial sector which has expanded at more than 13% per annum over the period 1993-97. There is a concern, however, among policymakers in Vietnam that employment growth has lagged behind.

This paper examines this concern using new employment data from the _Vietnam Living Standard Survey_ (VLSS 2) which was completed in 1997-98. Data from this survey can be compared with information from the first household survey undertaken in Vietnam in 199293.

Part I of the paper shows that over the period 1993-97 industrial employment has grown at an average of about 4% per year, which is low compared to industrial GDP growth. This is mainly due to the capital-intensive and import-substituting nature of the State sector and of foreign investment, which dominate industry. The labor-intensive and export-oriented domestic private sector, although growing quickly, is still small.

In the future, however, growth promises to be more labor-intensive than in the past. Prior to the Asian crisis there were signs of an emerging export-oriented sector. Using previous statistical analysis by Wood and Mayer (1998) as well as factor content calculations, part II of the paper estimates that given Vietnam's endowment of natural and human resources there is scope for Vietnam to triple its manufacturing exports and create around 1.6 million manufacturing jobs in export sectors in the near future.

Part III of the paper looks at Vietnam's labor regulations. It concludes that there is no need for fundamental labor market reforms. At current levels, minimum wages and non-wage regulations (even if better enforced) are unlikely to inhibit the development of the private sector or hurt export competitiveness. A restrictive interpretation of the Labor Code's provisions on employment termination may nonetheless hurt foreign investment, reduce the speed of reforms in the State sector, and slow the reallocation of resources to the private sector.

2
# **7. Experimental approaches to measure discrimination and exclusion**

So-called ‘audit studies’, provide an alternative approach to gathering evidence on the development outcomes, discrimination, and exclusion of LGBTI people.<sup>64</sup> Experimental methods can overcome some of the challenges noted above yet face their own challenges in terms of generalizability and the general downsides of experiments. Such methods have been used to highlight disparities on the basis of race, ethnicity, and gender, as well as for sexual orientation, gender identity, and expression.

Experimental methods have been used to detect discrimination in employment opportunities and access to housing for LGBTI people.<sup>65</sup> These experiments have for example focused on the job application process and revealed significant bias against openly lesbian and gay applicants, resulting in between a 5% to 40% lower callback rate for interviews, as well as lower wage offers. One 2011 study focused on gay male job seekers and their chances of being invited to an interview. Two fictitious counterfeit resumes were constructed to show applicants with the same qualifications and sent to over 1,700 job postings in the United States. One of those resumes was randomly assigned leadership experience in a gay university campus organization, with the ‘control’ resume listed leadership experience in a non-gay organization.<sup>66</sup> The study found that “While heterosexual applicants had an 11.5% chance of being invited for an interview, equally qualified gay applicants only had a 7.2% chance of receiving a positive response” <u>(Tilcsik, 2011).</u> A similar study was conducted in the United Kingdom. Over 140 ‘applicants’ were in correspondence with 5,549 companies. This study focused on the job prospects of gay men and lesbians. Gay men and lesbians had a 5% lower probability of being invited to an interview. Further, the companies that they received call backs from were paying on average less than those that invited heterosexual applicants.<sup>67</sup> In Greece, a study unveiled not only a 26% lower chance for a call back for gay and lesbian applicants but also 1.5% lower initial wage offer.<sup>68</sup>

> 64 Pager, Devah; Shepherd, Hana. 2008. The Sociology of Discrimination: Racial Discrimination in Employment, <u>Housing, Credit, and Consumer Markets.</u>

> 65 Studies for other minority groups have applied similar models for housing, credit and school applications. 66 Tilcsik, András. 2011. Pride and Prejudice: Employment Discrimination against Openly Gay Men in the <u>United States.</u>

> 67 Drydakis, Nick. 2014. Sexual Orientation Discrimination in the United Kingdom’s Labour Market.

> 68 Drydakis, Nick. 2009. Sexual Orientation Discrimination in the Labour Market, Labour Economics and Drydakis, Nick. 2011. Women’s Sexual Orientation and Labor Market Outcomes in Greece.

20
department;<sup>24</sup> the department’s largest shares were in working papers (45%), journal articles (36%), and book chapters (33%). Research department staff account for just 11% of the Bank’s book catalogue, and hardly ever produce an edited volume (they account for just 2% of the total).

There are some variations by the source of publication data. The research staff’s share of journal articles culled from EconLit exceeds that from SCOPUS reflecting the emphasis of the research department on economics and the broader coverage of the SCOPUS database. The fact that research staff have authored a higher percentage of books whose details were obtained from the Library of Congress reflects the fact these publications are co-published with university presses and that research staff have more often been involved in these quite scholarly publications than with Bank books generally. The high fraction of research staff authorship of book chapters from the SCOPUS database reflects the fact that most of these are chapters in the prestigious North Holland handbook series (recall that SCOPUS is owned by Elsevier). Finally, the low percentage for research staff on working papers culled from SCOPUS reflects the fact that these papers are often technical papers and discussion papers issued by Bank departments other than the Bank’s research complex.

What of the differences between Bank research staff and other authors in citation statistics? Table 13 breaks down citation figures for Bank publications between researchers (former and current members of the research department) and non-research staff by each publication type. In general, failure (i.e. non-citation) rates are lower and citation rates are higher among publications by research staff. This is true of books and book chapters, as well as the types of publications (journal articles and working papers) favored by research staff. It is not true, however, of edited volumes, but very few of these are edited by research staff. The gap is much larger for journal articles than for working papers: research staff and non-research staff produce roughly the same number of working papers, and the failure rate is similar, although the median and mean citations are higher for those authored by research staff. Coupled with the fact that more journal articles are published than working papers, this suggests that the higher failure rate of journal articles (as noted in relation to Table 5) is likely to be due to a high failure rate among papers going to journals that were not previously released as a working paper.

> 24  Authors are classified as Bank research staff in this paper if they have ever had an appointment in the current research department (known as the Development Research Group (DRG)) or were in its predecessor (the Policy Research Division (PRD)) from 1995 onwards. Long-term and extended-term consultants are included, but shortterm consultants are excluded.

27
|E.13 Baseline Balance in Ebola Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A46|
|---|---|
|E.14 Results for Pre-specifed Families in Ebola Sample<br>. . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A47|
|E.15 Perceived Quality of Care . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A48|
|E.16 Surveillance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A49|
|E.17 Ebola-specifc Balance Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A50|
|E.18 Spillovers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A53|
|E.19 Ratio of Confrmed and Total Cases<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A57|
|E.20 Bounding Exercise: Unintended Increase<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A58|
|E.21 Controlling for Unbalanced Baseline Variables<br>. . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A62|
|E.22 Geo-coding Procedure<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A63|
|E.23 Calculating Reduction in_R_0<br>. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . . . . . . . A65|

A2
In this paper, we analyze risk coping behavior by firms in Cambodia following the global financial crisis. First, we develop a simple theoretical framework to analyze the welfare cost of imperfect risk coping in the presence of a large negative demand shock. Firms would prefer to reduce (‘smooth’) the downward adjustment of their use of inputs conditional on a negative shock in sales if they anticipate the downturn in sales to be temporary and if they face adjustment costs when changing input use. However, the actual ability of a firm to smooth (or hoard) inputs is adversely affected by the presence of liquidity or credit constraints, and the additional adjustment costs incurred by a liquidity constrained firm (relative to an unconstrained firms) can be used as an indicator of the welfare loss of incomplete risk coping. Next, we use the basic insights of the theoretical framework to analyze the adjustments in inputs by firms in Cambodia during the global financial crisis using panel data on firms for the period 2007-2009. We show that firms differed in terms of the degree to which they adjusted inputs, but that firms without credit constraints and expectations that the demand shock was temporary were much more able to smooth their use of inputs. Firms facing credit constraints, however, reduced inputs significantly even if they expected the downward shock to be temporary only.

The paper is organized as follows. In section 2, we discuss the evidence on the impact of the global financial crisis on firms in Cambodia and their coping strategies. The impact of and response to the crisis has been highly heterogeneous at the firm-level. In section 3, we introduce a theoretical framework to explain why firms would like to smooth their input use in response to negative demand shocks, but are restrained to do so in the presence of credit constraints. In section 4, we analyze empirically the smoothing behavior of firms in Cambodia and show that firms differed in terms of the degree to which they adjusted inputs, particularly depending on the presence of credit constraints and their expectations on the duration of the negative shock. Also we estimate the welfare loss associated with incomplete input smoothing due to credit constraints. The final section concludes and discusses the policy implications of the analysis.

# **2. The impact of the global financial crisis on firms in Cambodia and their coping strategies**

For Cambodia, the global financial crisis came in the backdrop of an episode of sustained rapid growth, essentially from the late 1990s when peace and political stability were achieved. The four key sectoral drivers of growth were garments, tourism, construction and agriculture. As a consequence, the growth process of the country was directly dependent on foreign demand (garments and tourism) and foreign 3
(aP)U+' R&2 1+,B A Clearly, as the time horizon of the hedge increases, the marginal benefit also falls. Figure 2 graphs the ratio of risk benefits to additional costs for four different values of the serial correlation coefficient, when the coefficient of relative risk aversion is 1, the discount rate is _5_ per cent real, the CV of forecast error is 15 percent, and the transaction costs as a fraction of the value of the hedpe is 0.3 of 1% - a figure taken from Gardner (1989).

Thus the graph shows that if a = 0.8, then it would be worth setting n = 4, and at a = 0.9, n should be 8. But it is clear that the value of such hedging (on the favorable assumption of no output risk) is quite low, as transaction costs are low and the benefit-cost ratio is in terms of these transaction costs. Higher transactions costs would shorten the horizon over which hedging was cost-effective.

The other point to make is that the number of hedges rises with the horizon, which would increase the risk of performance default if the contracts did not require payment of margin calls as the futures price changes, to cover any change in the value of the contract. The transaction costs calculated by Gardner include the foregone interest rate differential on the money left on deposit to cover margin calls, and this can be thought of as ensuring contract performance. A country could follow this hedging strategy and avoid performance risk, if it were unconstrained in credit markets. Bue this is exactly the situation in which lending and borrowing would also be a viable consumption smoothing strategy.

20