As presented in Table 5, it is estimated that between 550,000 and 1,040,000 people were affected directly by either having water in the house or losing a valuable asset. If indirect impacts are also included, the number goes up to 900,000 to 1,730,000 people.

On a city level, the household losses discussed in section 3.2 translate to very large total costs for households. Through a quick phone survey, data on losses could be collected and used to generate citylevel estimates of household losses. Due to the 40% attrition rate and some refusal (see Section 2.2.2 for details), about 50% of the sample was covered in this quick assessment. In line with the methodology to count the number of affected households, reported information using the non-missing will serve as a lower bound of losses. Losses for households due to housing repairs and asset losses (direct losses), city-wide, due to the 2018 flood add up to between 236 billion and 502 billion shillings (US$101 million – US$216 million). As previously mentioned, the largest share of these losses is from damaged and lost assets. Health costs and income losses due to missed days of work (indirect losses) add up to between 13 billion and 28 billion shillings (US$6 million – US$12 million) - see Table 6.

To get a better sense what these numbers mean for Dar es Salaam, they are compared with the GDP of the city. The GDP per capita of Dar es Salaam from 2011<sup>32</sup> was adjusted for annual growth on a country level up until 2018.<sup>33</sup> GDP was then calculated using the official population number of 4.5 million (last official estimate and the population estimate on which the sample weights are based). Dar es Salaam GDP adds up to 13 trillion shillings (US$5.6 billion), and total losses due to the April 2018 flood account for between 2 and 4% of it.

_Table 6 - Total losses experienced by households on a city level in US$ and % of city GDP_

|**April 2018 flood:**|**Losses lower bound***|**Losses upper bound****|
|---|---|---|
|Direct losses (house and asset)|US$101,480,000|US$215,860,000|
|Indirect losses (health & labor)|US$5,547,000|US$11,825,000|
|**Total losses**|US$107,027,000|US$227,685,000|
|**% of city GDP**|1.9%|4.0%|

_*assuming households that were not reached in follow up survey were not affected (weights based on flood risk strata)_ _**assuming households that were not reached in follow up survey were affected in the same way as the ones that were reached (weights based on flood risk strata)_ The cost is most likely an underestimation of the true cost of flood exposure for households in Dar es Salaam. It does not take into account the non-monetary well-being impacts, such as health impacts or the cost of having water and sanitation service disrupted. It also does not fully take into account the impacts on income and career development that not showing up for work or having the family business damaged or disrupted can have. Finally, it does not account for the behavioral impacts that flood exposure can have on, for example, the propensity to invest in housing or business or other decision making which can affect the long-term welfare of the household.

# 3.4 Resilience – access to finance helps households recover

To analyze recovery, a variable was constructed indicating whether the household had recovered at the time of the interview from any reported shock in any year prior to 2018. The reason 2018 was excluded was

> 32 1,961,074 shillings.

> 33 2,898,931 shillings.

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