where we hypothesized that some crop may have been lost. However, the adjusted R<sup>2</sup> remains low throughout. This is not unsurprising since there are likely complex behavioral processes underlying farmers’ expectation building that are hard to model in this simple framework and without a (quasi)-experimental set-up. Notably, adding the percent-based planted area loss and plant productivity reduction estimates (not reported) adds a significant amount of predictive power to the model, however, this is driven by plots with full losses where the association is mechanical.

_Table 9_ : Ethiopia - Drivers of over-expectation

|**Ethiopia**|(1)<br>|(2)<br>M<br>|(3)<br>aize<br>|(4)<br>|(5)<br>|(6)<br>Sorg<br>|(7)<br>hum<br>|(8)<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||ES|18|ES|15|ES|18|ES|S15|
||Base|Overexp.|Base|Overexp.|Base|Overexp.|Base|Overexp.|
|Community reported drought in last 2y|0.351|0.504|-0.105|-0.0268|0.770***|0.421|0.0277|0.231|
||(0.287)|(0.338)|(0.127)|(0.151)|(0.220)|(0.306)|(0.124)|(0.140)|
|Community reported flood in last 2y|0.0318|0.0832|-0.0828|-0.331*|0.362|0.395*|-0.422*|-0.382*|
||(0.272)|(0.268)|(0.168)|(0.181)|(0.296)|(0.209)|(0.242)|(0.225)|
|Community reported crop disease in last 2y|0.0349|-0.181|-0.0892|-0.112|-0.292|-0.111|0.0540|0.266|
||(0.182)|(0.202)|(0.103)|(0.113)|(0.204)|(0.252)|(0.152)|(0.215)|
|log Plot area (ha)|-0.122**|-0.219***|0.0356|-0.0374|-0.0198|-0.106**|0.0369|0.0531|
||(0.0475)|(0.0512)|(0.0292)|(0.0295)|(0.0377)|(0.0501)|(0.0450)|(0.0470)|
|Intercropped|0.178|0.228|-0.0526|0.0812|-0.0490|-0.0437|-0.227**|-0.188|
||(0.142)|(0.163)|(0.0835)|(0.0959)|(0.104)|(0.129)|(0.109)|(0.120)|
|Soil fertility index|-0.111|-0.224**|-0.0514|-0.0325|-0.00537|-0.128|-0.00517|0.0126|
||(0.0870)|(0.108)|(0.0515)|(0.0557)|(0.117)|(0.195)|(0.0781)|(0.0906)|
|Improved seed|0.489***|0.558***|-0.144*|-0.183*|0.366**|-0.0551|0.644|0.870|
||(0.168)|(0.199)|(0.0863)|(0.105)|(0.171)|(0.185)|(0.485)|(0.649)|
|Precipitation of Wettest Month (mm)|-0.00225**|-0.00289**|-0.00320***|-0.00430***|0.00192|0.00409|-0.000423|-0.00209|
||(0.00103)|(0.00135)|(0.000954)|(0.00120)|(0.00360)|(0.00639)|(0.00162)|(0.00210)|
|Dependency ratio|-0.130***|-0.119**|0.0187|-0.00715|0.0216|-0.0180|0.0766*|0.0882|
||(0.0490)|(0.0517)|(0.0302)|(0.0422)|(0.0409)|(0.0585)|(0.0445)|(0.0678)|
|Any HH member has primary edu|-0.123|-0.164|0.0325|-0.0300|-0.0504|-0.0477|0.122|0.107|
||(0.0995)|(0.139)|(0.0747)|(0.107)|(0.101)|(0.108)|(0.0928)|(0.126)|
|Ag Asset Index|0.205***|0.149*|-0.127*|-0.186**|-0.0152|-0.0494|-0.101|-0.179*|
||(0.0672)|(0.0817)|(0.0664)|(0.0875)|(0.0745)|(0.103)|(0.0801)|(0.103)|
|Female plot manager|-0.0700|-0.131|0.000363|-0.121|-0.109|-0.0539|0.0643|-0.0608|
||(0.122)|(0.144)|(0.0830)|(0.115)|(0.0897)|(0.141)|(0.148)|(0.195)|
|Plot manager age|-0.00692**|0.00210|-0.00121|0.00205|0.00454|0.00394|-0.00163|-0.00208|
||(0.00313)|(0.00378)|(0.00270)|(0.00338)|(0.00310)|(0.00312)|(0.00298)|(0.00368)|
|Plot manager has primary edu|0.0691|0.225*|-0.0506|-0.000532|0.122|0.125|-0.0871|0.0557|
||(0.0992)|(0.131)|(0.0989)|(0.119)|(0.134)|(0.157)|(0.126)|(0.157)|
|Constant|0.853**|1.200**|1.210***|2.087***|-0.609|-0.424|-0.0174|1.322**|
||(0.395)|(0.475)|(0.325)|(0.407)|(0.838)|(1.417)|(0.443)|(0.556)|
|Observations|1,631|930|2,848|1,379|1,247|659|2,347|1,163|
|Adjusted R-squared|0.080|0.122|0.062|0.134|0.084|0.122|0.084|0.129|
|Region FE<br>Note: Regressions of the log of the ratio of e<br>parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1|YES<br>xpectations (<br>.|YES<br>+1) to realizat|YES<br>ions (+1) on a|YES<br>number of pot|YES<br>ential correlat|YES<br>es. Clustered|YES<br>standard erro|YES<br>rs in|

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