data only indicate the share of manufacturing in total GDP and not the quality or quantity of goods produced, higher rates may also correspond to differences in the number of manufacturing sites and the methods of production used. The carbon emissions associated with this structural change are higher, suggesting a trade-off between pollution-heavy and carbon-intense production. In a similar fashion, poor countries that have a high urbanization rate have higher deforestation rates and reach a pollution peak faster. Poor countries that have lower urbanization, on the other hand, eventually maintain higher pollution and carbon emissions levels at higher income. This suggests that the draw-down in pollution output is not just a matter of income and productivity, it may relate to attaining critical urban population mass combined with increased income. The effects of poverty, finally, do not impact the location and shape of the environmental output levels. Countries with high poverty rates unambiguously deforest and pollute more, but emit less carbon.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Estimated tree %loss across GDP for Estimated PM25 across GDP for different Estimated CO2 across GDP for different<br>different manufacturing shares manufacturing shares manufacturing shares<br>+10 point % +10 point % +10 point %<br>local average local average local average<br>−10 point % −10 point % −10 point %<br>1100 3000 8100 22000 1100 3000 8100 22000 1100 3000 8100 22000<br>GDP per capita log scale GDP per capita log scale GDP per capita log scale<br>R2 of underlying model = 0.922 R2 of underlying model = 0.98 R2 of underlying model = 0.956<br>Estimated tree %loss across GDP for Estimated PM25 across GDP for Estimated CO2 across GDP for<br>different urbanisation rates different urbanisation rates different urbanisation rates<br>+10 point % +10 point % +10 point %<br>local average local average local average<br>−10 point % −10 point % −10 point %<br>1100 3000 8100 22000 1100 3000 8100 22000 1100 3000 8100 22000<br>GDP per capita log scale GDP per capita log scale GDP per capita log scale<br>R2 of underlying model = 0.922 R2 of underlying model = 0.98 R2 of underlying model = 0.956<br>Estimated tree %loss across GDP for Estimated PM25 across GDP for Estimated CO2 across GDP for<br>different poverty rates different poverty rates different poverty rates<br>+10 point % +10 point % +10 point %<br>local average local average local average<br>−10 point % −10 point % −10 point %<br>1100 3000 8100 22000 1100 3000 8100 22000 1100 3000 8100 22000<br>GDP per capita log scale GDP per capita log scale GDP per capita log scale<br>R2 of underlying model = 0.922 R2 of underlying model = 0.98 R2 of underlying model = 0.956<br>0.6 30 0.25<br>0.5 25 0.20<br>%loss 0.4 PM25 20<br>0.15<br>0.3 15 CO2 kg per ppp $<br>0.2 10 0.10<br>0.7 30<br>0.6 25 0.25<br>0.5 0.20<br>%loss PM25 20<br>0.4 0.15<br>15 CO2 kg per ppp $<br>0.3<br>0.10<br>0.2 10<br>0.7 30 0.30<br>0.6<br>25 0.25<br>0.5<br>%loss 0.4 PM25 20 0.20<br>0.3 15 CO2 kg per ppp $ 0.15<br>0.2 10 0.10<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 5: predicted environmental output levels across income. Predictors are held at expectations conditional on GDP and one variable has been incremented +/- 10 points in each plot. The local average trend is identical to those in fig. 4.

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