3 growth (developing LAC’s contribution is also small). Lastly, focusing on future construction needs by 2050, and only taking into account population growth, developing Africa, Asia and LAC now respectively account for _∼_ 50%, _∼_ 25% and _∼_ 5% of _current_ global construction needs.

We then use the data to unpack how outward construction (building area) and upward construction (building height) account for the volume-income relation observed globally. We find that vertical expansion is the main driver of international volume differences, as it accounts for _∼_ 60% of the global volume-income relation, including in the developing world. Low-rises below 50 m, not high-rises, then account for _∼_ 90% of the contribution of upward construction.

Given that urban residents consume less space per capita than rural residents, urbanization should tend to reduce per capita consumption, and thus cannot account for the higher levels of space consumption in more developed economies. We find that rural areas & small towns differ more across countries in terms of volumes than urban areas do, as a result of which rural areas & small towns explain _∼_ 60% of international volume differences. Lastly, upward construction and low-rises drive international volume differences in both types of areas.

Finally, we employ residualization procedures to classify large countries and cities with similar levels of economic development into pro-heights vs. pro-area and pro-high-rises vs. prolow-rises for their heights. Asian nations and megacities are more pro-heights than African or LAC nations and megacities. LAC is more pro-high-rises for its heights whereas Africa is more pro-low-rises. Asia has a more balanced height distribution. Eastern Europe is more pro-heights than Western Europe or North America (they are all pro-high-rises for their heights).

Policy-wise, the results suggest that: (i) economic development does not fully explain international volume differences, as one-third of volume differences can be attributed to other factors, which likely include land use regulations such as height restrictions and urban containment policies (e.g., greenbelts and urban growth boundaries); (ii) land-use regulations are likely not as consequential in lower income countries where little variation in space consumption levels are observed; (iii) existing land-use regulations may become more binding in the future as some regions of the world keep experiencing fast population growth, including Africa and South Asia; (iv) countries and cities with similar income levels vary in their upward vs. outward specializations, suggesting again an important role for height restrictions and urban containment policies; and (v) meeting construction needs could have important environmental implications because the construction sector accounts for _∼_ 40% of carbon emissions (UNEP, 2022). Likewise, a nation’s or city’s outward or upward specialization could have environmental implications if sprawl or skyscrapers disproportionately produce carbon emissions (e.g., either because of gasoline cars or the construction materials used) (The World Bank, 2023b).

In addition to literature on how construction patterns vary across world regions, countries,