rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
toward violence and engagement in family planning.

In addition, our results show a very different spatial dispersion of the effects of violent Boko Haram attacks relative to Fulani attacks. Rather than an overall positive effect on economic well-being at the household level, male employment appears to be partially substituted by female employment after distant Fulani attacks. Distant Fulani attacks alone also improve the decision-making autonomy of women. However, contrary to the findings for Boko Haram attacks, we did not observe any effects on the propensity of using contraceptive methods and experiencing domestic violence.

When looking at possible channels explaining the results, we found that the spatial spillover effects of Boko Haram attacks are likely linked to forced displacement. First, we found that only distant Boko Haram events significantly affect the inflow of IDPs to communities. Second, the spillover effects of Boko Haram attacks on financial outcomes for men and women are concentrated in areas hosting IDPs. The same holds for observed impacts on the family planning of women. Third, we observed no effects of Fulani attacks either on forced displacement or economic well-being of households. The result of a reduced gender gap in employment as a result of distant Fulani attacks, in contrast, seems consistent with attempts to diversify the income source in response to interrupted trade and degraded infrastructure.

One finding that equally applies to the two types of distant attacks is a decreased likelihood that women accept being beaten by their partner. Our empirical analyses of the IDP channel also suggest that forced migration plays a negligible role in causing this effect. We show that a contributing factor is access to television. For instance, when women learn about violent attacks, they may distance themselves from the aggressors by changing their beliefs and values.

Our findings of favorable implications of distant Boko Haram attacks for the economic well-being of the household and economic empowerment of women, paired with the important role of the IDP channel, have important implications for policy makers and for development organizations working in conflict-affected countries. They suggest that being generous to IDPs fleeing from Boko Haram insurgents by providing a safe place to live can 38
Policy Research Working Paper 6566

# **Abstract**

Using a panel survey, this paper investigates how the increase in food prices in Pakistan in 2008–2010 affected children’s school enrollment and labor. The causal identification relies on geographical variations in the price of food (wheat). The results show that the negative impacts of food price increase on school enrollment differ by gender, economic status, and the presence of siblings. The negative effects on school do not directly correspond to the increase in child labor because the transition from being idle to labor activity or from school to being idle are significant, particularly among the poor girls. The results also show that children in households with access to agricultural land are not affected by higher food prices. The analyses reveal a more dynamic picture of the impact of food price increase on child status and contribute to broader policy discussion to mitigate the impact of crises on children’s education.

This paper is a product of the Human Development Sector, South Asia Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at xhou@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
(1) The Harris-Todaro framework is only a static model describing migration, which is a dynamic phenomenon by nature. Even though the model can be thought of as representing a steady state equilibrium, this is a limitation. Furthermore, the formalization is made in a partial equilibrium context which greatly weakens the justifications for policy recommendations.

(2) Important aspects are absent from the standard Harris-Todaro model, including the probable heterogeneity of migrants which is not accounted for, risk aversion which could dampen migration incentives and render the Todaro paradox even less likely to occur, the possibility of job search in the urban area from the rural area, the possibility of return migration, or the existence of rural unemployment. In fact, the Harris-Todaro is almost silent about what happens in the rural areas.

(3) The assumption that urban workers are either employed in the manufacturing sector or unemployed has been criticized as too simplistic even though, in the authors’ minds, it was implicit that unemployment could also be interpreted as underemployment in the informal sector. Cole and Sanders (1985) have criticized the Harris-Todaro model for not explicitly modeling the subsistence sector employing uneducated migrants, arguing that it flawed the job selection process and expected income calculations if, by lack of qualification, uneducated migrants could not find a job in the modern urban sector.

(4) The job rationing mechanism or hiring model hypothesized is not realistic. In particular, assuming random job selection in each period overestimates the likelihood of finding a job. Stiglitz (1974) suggests that the employment probability might vary in a non-monotonic way with the duration of the stay in the city: it could increase in the first periods when migrants form social networks in the city, and then decrease in the later periods because of deteriorating human capital or because of bad signaling.

(5) The Harris-Todaro model assumes that the urban wage is exogenously set above the endogenous rural wage since it must be that _w > f’R(LR)_ for (2.3) to hold. The assumption that wages are high find several explanations ranging from the existence of trade unions to the agglomeration of economic activities.<sup>13</sup> It is confirmed in practice,

> 13 Economic Geography has shown that agglomeration in the manufacturing sector in a context of increasing returns to production and imperfect competition produces high real wages (the large local

17
unorganized plants: size. They estimate an augmented production function that includes the unorganized sector share. They find that real output is lower in districts with greater share of unorganized sector.

[Moreno-Monroy et al. (2012)] directly address the importance of outsourcing or sub-contracting from the organized sector to the unorganized sector. Anecdotal evidence as well as case studies reveal that the organized sector in India uses the unorganized sector as a cheap supplier of inputs (manufacturing as well as service inputs). Organized sector firms may outsource their most labor-intensive tasks to unorganized sector so that they do not have to hire more workers (who are much harder to fire in case the firm needs to shrink or change product mix). This allows organized plants more flexibility and allows them to take advantage of lower unorganized sector wages.

Ahsan et al. combine data from ASI, NSS and Prowess to conduct state-industry level analysis and essentially identify horizontal linkages between organized and unorganized sectors. That is they ask whether greater organized presence in the same sector leads to greater unorganized presence. They interpret this result to mean that organized and unorganized sectors are complements due to possible agglomeration effects like labor market pooling, location of input suppliers and outsourcing by organized firms. However they do not explicitly identify vertical linkages (where organized sector buys inputs from unorganized sector and vice versa). They find that correlation between organized and unorganized sector activity is less than one and they interpret this as a move towards formalization: a 1 unit increase in organized activity leads to a less than 1 unit increase in unorganized activity. Further they find that horizontal linkages are affected by the capital-intensity of organized sector (greater capital intensity is associated with more outsourcing) and by state-level labor regulations.

[Moreno-Monroy et al. (2012)] combine various cross-sections of ASI and NSS to assess the impact of sub-contracting or outsourcing of manufactured products and services by the organized sector to the unorganized sector. They model the unorganized employment in a state-industry cell as a function of total organized sector sub-contracting (defined as the purchase value of goods sold in the same condition as purchased plus the cost of contract and commission work as a proportion of total cell output). They go one step further and test the modernization view of sub-contracting. This view avers that as the organized sector sub-contracts to the unorganized 8
# d) Poultry Ownership

<!-- Start of picture text --> 100%<br>80%<br>60%<br>40%<br>20%<br>0%<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Authors’ calculations using NHBPS 2014/15.

For households that own livestock, the death or theft of their livestock is a common occurrence (Figure 25). The questionnaires ask whether a household has been severely affected by such an event; around one-fourth of households that own livestock claim that such an event has affected them adversely. Higher rates are noted in Darfur, where reliance on livestock is greater than in the rest of Sudan. Such losses can cause hardships to households that rely on livestock for income, either through the sale of these assets, or through the sale of animal products. Programs that insure against the loss of livestock can help these households overcome such hardships without falling into poverty.

Figure 25: Shocks Affecting Households that Own Some Form of Livestock <!-- Start of picture text --> 60%<br>50%<br>40%<br>30%<br>20%<br>10%<br>0%<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Authors’ calculations using NHBPS 2014/15.

28
# **3. OIL AND GAS-RELATED FISCAL EXPENDITURE ON FUEL SUBSIDIES**

_Fuel subsidy trends_ The central government subsidizes the price of a variety of energy products, including low-octane gasoline, kerosene, diesel, LPG and electricity. Subsidies in Indonesia have fluctuated widely over the past decade, following movements in international prices and the exchange rate, and adjustments to the subsidy regime (Figure 11 and Table 4). Fuel subsidies increased markedly from 1998 to 2000 following the sharp depreciation of the rupiah relative to the US dollar (which reached its nadir in 2001). They peaked in 2000, accounting for 28.6 percent of total spending.

**Figure 11.  Most of Indonesia’s fuel is subsidized**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 5,000IDR/L 100%<br>(2007) Excluding Avgas/Avtur<br>Share of total fuel<br>4,000 consumption 80<br>subsidized<br>(RHS)<br>3,000 60<br>2,000 40<br>Average price<br>1,000 20<br>of subsidized fuel<br>(2007 consumers' prices;<br>LHS)<br>0 0<br>1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source: World Bank calculations_ Fuel subsidies decreased again in 2001, following the government’s fuel price increase in February 2000 and in June 2001. The subsidy reduction in 2002 is the unique case in Indonesia’s recent past of incremental adjustment of fuel prices. Through 2002 domestic market prices moved with world prices, and even fell through the middle of the year as the appreciating exchange rate lowered the rupiah cost of fuel. In early 2003 the government attempted to close the gap between domestic and international fuel prices. However, this bold reform was ill-prepared and poorly communicated. On 1 January 2003, the government increased fuel prices, the same day it increased various utility prices. At the same time, the government was still re-building its reputation following the crisis of the late 1990s, and public confidence in its other expenditure programs remained low. The result was public protests, and the government rolled back most of the increase and broke the link to world prices.

Fuel subsidies then increased sharply in 2004 and 2005 following increases in international oil prices (increase of 97 percent in 2004 relative to 2003), but then decreased again after the government increased the price of the subsidized products and reduced the number of products eligible for the subsidy in March and October 2005. Increasing international oil prices and a recovery in consumption suggest subsidies are likely to exceed their 2005 levels this year.

12
MULTILINGUAL CHILD ASSESSMENT

# **Appendix B: Expressive Vocabulary Test Creation**

To create the expressive vocabulary measure, we began with images from pieces of the BPVS III plates, local storybook illustrations used in a related project, as well as other simple drawings, we presented up to 200 individual pictures to 61 children 2 to 6 years of age, asking them to name the object or concept the picture showed. We recorded responses in the language (English, Swahili or Luo) children used.

We then reviewed pass rates (in any language) by age (younger or older than 5 years) for each picture, and discarded words with no clear response (e.g., multiple responses for any picture). We again grouped words as hard, average or easy, based on response by age. This resulted in 20 items (scores range from 0-20), and children received credit for responding in any of the three languages. Four items overlapped with those occurring in the receptive tests (two words on the Swahili list, and two on the English list). The rest were a mix of distractors in the BPVS, and stimulus words. A local artist then created all 20 original drawings used in our assessment, displayed below. A child could respond in any of the three languages to score a pass for expressing the word verbally. During instrument development and pretesting, we worked with our field team to identify words that were similar across languages, and understand how they would be differentiated. English and Swahili are not a tonal languages, while Luo is. Thus, for all similar words, the field team agreed on the differences in their pronunciation that would identify a child’s response in a given language.

The full expressive vocabulary assessment is provided below, with the intention of making the tool freely available for use for research purposes only. The tool is not meant for, and should not be used for diagnostic purposes. We did not establish any norms. It is also not intended for use as an instructional aid. The images were printed on flashcards, single sided, and with one image per card. Children were asked in their preferred language, “What is this?” for each item. Children were not instructed as to which language to respond in, but responses in any language were accepted. We did not provide further instruction because code-switching during conversation is very common in this area, and very young children may not be aware which language they are actually speaking for a given word. Thus, a child could respond to each item in the 20-item test in English, Luo, or Swahili to score a pass for expressing the word verbally. Administration ended with three consecutive fails after the first 10 items.

<u>Appendix B Table 1: Expressive Vocabulary Assessment</u>

|Item|Stimulus Image|Stimulus Word||Accepted Respon|ses|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Practice Items||English|Swahili|Luo|
|1||Shoe|Shoe|Kiatu<br>Viatu|Wuoche|
|2||Cow|Cow|Ng’ombe|Ruath<br>Dwasi<br>Dhiang|
|3||Frog|Frog|Chura|Ogwal|
Thus, the reform to the customs procedure did generate a significant boost to the value of imported intermediates for user firms, relative to non-user firms.

**Table 11. Reform in Advance Clearance Procedure and Imported Intermediates**

||**Log (Import**<br>**Value)**|**Log (Import**<br>**Value)**|**Log (Import**<br>**Value)**|
|---|---|---|---|
||**(1)**|**(2)**|**(3)**|
||**All**|**Agribusiness**|**Apparel**|
|**Dummy for Advance Clearance**||||
|**Procedure User**|0.177***|0.323*|0.438***|
||(0.030)|(0.191)|(0.104)|
|**Dummy for Post‐Reform Period**||||
|**(2010‐2012)**|0.496***|0.391***|0.354***|
||(0.023)|(0.110)|(0.073)|
|**Dummy for Advance Clearance**||||
|**Procedure User * Dummy for**||||
|**Post‐Reform Period (2010‐2012)**|0.395***|1.000***|0.349*|
||(0.043)|(0.337)|(0.208)|
|**Observations**|22,865|1,326|2,393|
|**R‐squared**|0.906|0.776|0.881|

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% confidence levels, respectively. Only exporter-importers are included in all the regressions.

# **7. Conclusion**

Using highly disaggregated firm-level customs transaction data for imports and exports in Peru over more than a decade, this paper explored the relationship between imports of intermediate inputs and firm export performance. In line with a growing body of recent literature (Bas, 2012; Bas and Strauss-Kahn, 2014, 2015; Chevassus-Lozza et al., 2013; Feng et al., 2012; Fernandes and Lopez, 2015) we find that a greater use, variety, and quality of imported intermediate inputs is significantly correlated with higher exports, faster export growth, greater diversification of export markets, and higher quality exports (as measured by relative unit prices). This relationship is robust and persistent to controls for unobserved firm heterogeneity and year fixed effects. A complementary analysis using data from a manufacturing census supports these findings, showing that the use of imported inputs is associated with higher productivity at the firm level.

If imported inputs have such a positive impact on firm performance, why do Peruvian firms, on average, import so little? To understand this we the examined the relationship between specific trade policy measures and the import performance of those exporters that are direct importers. We found that firms exposed to higher tariffs and non-tariff measures import less and (in the case of NTMs) restrict the variety of their imports. We also found that the use of the advanced clearance 29
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Policy Research Working Paper 7319

# **Abstract**

In this paper, survey data are used to document the presence of gender gaps in self-employment, employership, and labor force participation in seven Balkan countries and Turkey. The paper examines the quantitative effects of the gender gaps on aggregate productivity and income per capita in these countries. In the model used to carry out this calculation, agents choose between being workers, self-employed, or employers, and women face several restrictions in the labor market. The data display very large gaps in labor force participation and in the percentage of employers and self-employed in the labor force. In almost all cases, these gaps reveal a clear underrepresentation of women. The calculations show that, on average, the loss associated with these gaps is about 17 percent of income per capita. One-third of this loss is due to distortions in the choice of occupations between men and women. The remaining two-thirds corresponds to the costs associated with gaps in labor force participation. The dimensions of these gender gaps and their associated costs vary considerably across age groups, with the age bracket 36–50 years being responsible for most of the losses.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Global Practice Group with the support of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation via the World Bank’s Umbrella Facility for Gender Equality. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at dcuberes@clarku.edu.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
**Figure 1. Female labor force participation rates in Egypt (percentages), ages 12-64, 19772021**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 45<br>40<br>35<br>30<br>25<br>20<br>15<br>10<br>5<br>0<br>1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025<br>Year<br>LFS -urban LFS-rural LFS-Total<br>ELMPS-urban ELMPS-rural ELMPS-total<br>Sp. Round of LFS - urban Sp. Round of LFS - rural Sp. Roumnd of LFS - total<br>Percentage<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: The numerator of the participation rate is the economically active female population aged 12 to 64 and the denominator is the manpower basis, which includes all the population 6 to 64 minus those who are permanently disabled, plus and those 65 and older who are employed. The definition of the economically active population from 1977 to 1984 is limited to market work and those seeking such work. The definition in the special round of the LFS in October 1988 includes subsistence work. From 1990 to 2005, the definition is not explicit about the inclusion of subsistence work. The definition used in the LFS from 2007 to 2021 and that used in all rounds of the ELMPS is limited to market work. The LFS was not carried out in 1986, the year of the population census. In 1987, the design of the LFS was changed to be collected on a quarterly basis rather than in a single annual round. However, no LFS bulletin is available for 1987 or the first half of 1988.

Source: Authors’ calculations using data from CAPMAS Annual Bulletin of the Labor Force Survey for LFS series from 1977 to 2005 (CAPMAS, n.d.), from the LFS public use microdata (OAMDI 2023) for LFS series from 2007 to 2021, and from public use microdata series (OAMDI 2019) for ELMPS 1998, 2006, 2012, and 2018.

Around 1987, the ILO conducted Methods Test Surveys in Egypt and India designed to test the effects of questionnaire design, sex of interviewer, labor force definition, and self/proxy status on the reporting of women’s labor force participation. The Egypt Methods Test survey was carried 4