30 The Political Climate. There are mixed signals on the political front about the future course of Australian immigration. On the one hand, in 1987 the Minister of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs announced that "the Government supports an expansive immigration program. However, the most appropriate and responsible strategy is to plan for steady moderate annual increases commensurate with the economic and social situation" (news release from the Honorable Mick Young, Minister for Immigration, Local Government and Ethnic Affairs, June 11, 1987). On the other hand a new controversy has arisen in Australia over immigration from Asia and the Middle East. In 1984, Geoffrey Blainey began attacking the concept of multiculturalism and the "Asianization" of Australia (Mackie, 1987). Recently, opposition leader John Howard has questioned the non-discriminatory immigration policy and he has made this issue a keystone of his campaign. Howard has suggested that Asian immigration should be slowed in the interest of social harmony. However, Howard's position is strongly opposed by some members of his own Liberal Party. Moreover, Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke has vowed to fight any move to limit Asian immigration and he has decidee to take a strong stand on this position, even if it might hurt his chances o being re-elected. Public opinion seems to be on the side of John Howard, w,th 77 percent of Australia's population opposing large-scale immigration from Asia and the Middle East in public opinion polls. It should be pointed out, however, that the controversy is not primarily over the total magnitude of immigration, but over its regional composition.

Australia Recommendations. In summary, Australia has relatively good immigration and emigration data. Moreover, the analysts responsible for making estimates and projections are thoroughly familiar with the data, with Australia's situation, and with the appropriate analytical methods for arriving at the most reasonable estimates. Some caution is necessary because the projections have changed substantially in a short period of time, but these changes have been primarily in response to the rapid rise in actual net migration over the last four years. On the basis of the above information, I would recommend net migration of 425,000 for 1980-1985, 611,000 for 1985-1990, 636,000 for 1990-1995, and 511,000 for 1995-2000. These recommended figures are considerably higher than both the previous World Bank estimates and the United Nations estimates.

The estimates for 1980-1985 are only marginally higher than the United Nations estimates and it would be difficult to justify an estimate much lower than the one I have suggested because the data for that entire period are already available. Similarly, accurate data are already available for more than half of the 1985-1990 period and the course of international migration for the rest of that period is reasonably well determined. The period from 1990-2000 is less certain, but the previous World Bank assumptions are much too low. The assumption that I am recommending for 1990-1995 is 6 percent lower than the lowest assumption contained in the latest projections of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The recommended assumption for 1995-2000 is in the lower half of the range included in the ABS projections. I feel that a lower figure could possibly be justified but a figure of less than 425,000 would be unreasonable for that period.