rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
output volatility in sectors with higher liquidity needs.

Literature that explicitly analyzes the link between trade and finance is also closely related to our paper. Industry level studies such as Beck (2002), Beck (2003) and Manova (2008a) show that higher financial development will lead to a lower search cost for financial intermediaries and higher shares of exports in industries more dependent on external finance. Manova (2008a) and Hur, Raj, and Riyanto (2006) also find that at low levels of financial development industries with more tangible assets tend to export more. A potential explanation for this is that at low levels of financial development problems such as moral hazard and adverse selection will be more pronounced and lenders will be more likely to require a collateral.<sup>6</sup> Finally, firm level studies provide important insights into why financial constraints are particularly relevant for exporters. These encompass a range of studies focusing on the importance of existing sunk costs to penetrate foreign markets. Kletzer and Bardhan (1987) in a seminal theoretical contribution develop a model where countries with identical technology and endowments can develop a finance based comparative advantage in manufacturing goods requiring more working capital, marketing costs or trade finance. Later Baldwin (1989) and Krugman (1989) develop models where exporters have to pay a significant sunk cost to enter foreign markets and several empirical contributions confirm the validity of the sunk cost hypothesis ( Bernard and Jensen (2004), Iacovone and Javorcik (2008), Muuls (2008), Roberts and Tybout (1997)). As discussed by Becker and Greenberg (2003) these costs are large and difficult to finance from reasons including the delay between investment and revenue collection, limited collateral and difficulty to predict and verify revenues from abroad for outsiders.

# **3 Empirical strategy and data**

## **3.1 Empirical strategy**

In order to correctly identify the impact of banking crises on exports growth our empirical strategy has to address the endogeneity and reverse causality issues. The same shocks that trigger the financial crisis might also affect the export performance. Similarly, the performance of exports may be the trigger of the financial crisis. Such concern about reverse causality could be particularly serious in countries where the economy is not sufficiently diversified and relies on just few sectors, the ones affected by adverse exogenous shocks. If the importance of the exporters is sufficiently high in the portfolios of the banks, an adverse demand shock might lead

> 6Do and Levchenko (2007) argue, both theoretically and empirically, that the relationship between finance and trade is not uni-directional and a country’s financial development is actually endogenous to the export structure of the economy.

5
- 22 -

freight rates under 5 per cent and in-only 8 instance.<sup>(out of 81) do the</sup> freight rates exceed 10 per cent. In contrast, bauxite ore, from Guyana and Suriname has ad valorem freight rates which vary between 9<sup>to 26 per cent</sup> while freight rates are equivalent to over 50 per cent of the f.a.s. value of Bahama's ezports of Sodium Chloride. 15/ However, these products are exceptions as most of the(4iominal freight rates in Table 4 are low.

In contrast to the nominal freight costs, however, Table 4 shows<sup>that</sup> current United States tariffs for some goods are far more imposing a barrier -- particularly for items like textiles, clothing and footwear. Antigua's exports of women's clothing encounter tariffs which range<sup>from 24 to 32 per</sup> cent, while rates exceeding 25 per cent are also recorded for some<sup>clothing</sup> shipments from Barbados, Dominican Republic, Jamaica,<sup>St. Lucia and St.</sup> Vincent. 16/ Several other manufactured goods (polyester resins from

- 15/ Since the ad valorem transport rates reflected in Table 4 are the weighted average of rates for air and vessel shipments, an important<sup>point is</sup> whether these aggregate figures reflect generally lower Caribbean freight costs for both transport modes or results for lower rates charged<sup>by one</sup> type of carrier. Empirical evidence presented later in<sup>thi'i</sup> study (see Tables 6 and 7) suggest that these overall results are heavily influenced by favorable air transport costs and that Caribbean countries often encounter adverse rates for ocean transport. See the appendix tables for detailed air and ocean transport cost profiles of individual<sup>Caribbean</sup> countries. In analyzing Lhis information, as well as the data in Table 4, the very different market characteristics of shipping services for manufactures as opposed to bulk commodities like bauxite ore should be noted. While the former are normally handled by liner conferences<sup>that</sup> have a degree of oligopoly power in rate setting, bulk terminals are usually privately owned and freight rates are determined by an entirely different market process.

- 16/ Such high tariff rates may go unnoticed in national<sup>tariff schedules</sup> since they are often expressed as specific duties (i.e., as a fixed monetary charge per unit of import) or as a combined specific plus<sup>ad valorem</sup> rate. GATT converts specific tariffs to ad valorem equivalents by taking their ratio to the average unit value for the imports of the product. As such, the incidence on exporters of relatively low value<sup>goods may be</sup> considerably higher than indicated by the GATT conversion<sup>procedure.</sup> Yeats (1976), for example, found that specific tariffs had<sup>nominal</sup> equivalents on developing countries' tariff line level goods that were roughly double those for similar exports from developed countries.
6 6

# III. Data and descriptive evidence

## A. Protectionism in national law on government procurement

To explore the relationship between trade openness and protectionism in domestic law, we compile a unique dataset that combines a text analysis of procurement laws from over 150 countries, with trade data from the ITPD-E database. The legal analysis involves the interpretation and coding of national procurement laws, with a focus on identifying provisions that discriminate against foreign firms, goods and services or give preferential treatment to domestic suppliers. With this approach we develop indicators that provide a comprehensive snapshot of protectionism in government procurement around the world as of 2021-2022.

For our analysis, we focus on aspects that relate to discrimination and barriers to participation in procurement auctions against foreign firms, goods, and services. We identify three main ways the law can allow for discrimination against foreign firms, goods, and services in procurement auctions. For each area, a dummy variable is assigned with a value of one if the law is discriminatory and zero otherwise.

The first feature of protectionism is the absence of a general provision for non _discrimination_ between domestic and foreign firms (or goods and services) in government procurement. An indicator for _preferential treatment_ further identifies laws that allow for discriminating against foreign bids, for instance by inflating them. This policy is equivalent to the application of an import tariffs on foreign goods (Cole, Davies, and Kaplan 2017).<sup>5</sup> In addition to preference margins, governments may favor domestic goods and services in procurement auctions by imposing _domestic sourcing_ , for instance through “made in the country” provisions.

To summarize the information from these indicators, we construct a composite indicator that equals one if the law is categorized as protectionist for all the three areas – lack of an equal treatment provision, preferential treatment and domestic sourcing. Table A.1 in the Appendix reports the indicators on the three policy areas (two instruments – preferential treatment and domestic sourcing – and a general provision) that governments often use to restrict access to procurement markets, as well as the values of the composite indicator. Protectionism is widespread in our sample of countries. Around 36 percent of the countries lack a general provision of equal treatment between domestic and foreign firms when it comes to government procurement. Only in 17 out of 141 countries where data is available, the law does not include preferential treatment clauses against foreign bidders. A domestic

> 5 The classic case of preferential treatment is the application of a preference margin. Argentinian law, for instance, says that government agencies must choose an offer from a national firm over that of a foreign firm if the price of the domestic bid is less than or equal to that of the foreign one increased by 15 percent.

6
_Decentralization:_ **_The_** _Way Forward for Rural Development?_ losers. Investment would be made only in socially beneficial (public) goods. Even if there are differences in the power distribution, it can be shown that for any distribution of power, the most "efficient" method of redistribution will be chosen, because deadweight losses increase more than proportionately to the amount transferred. Given the observed redistribution of resources away from the rural poor, Becker's theory suggests that rural people have a very low capacity to articulate their demands in the political arena.

A number of applications of the conflict between different interest groups have been applied to agriculture. Hayami and Anderson (1986) have developed a theory of supply and demand for agricultural protection, which integrates elements from the theories of public choice and collective action, that explains the widespread practice in developed countries of subsidizing small agricultural sectors at the expense of consumers. They argue that at low levels of development neither supply nor demand for agricultural protection is high. Therefore, the agricultural sector is taxed in order to subsidize urban workers and industrialists via low food prices. At higher levels of development, the demand and supply curves for agricultural protection shift to the right. Consumers no longer spend a large part of their budget on food and, given that returns to farming do not rise fast enough to facilitate farmers' participation in general growth, agriculturists-who now face lower costs of organization-lobby for protection. This provides one possible explanation of why urban bias in developing countries transforms into rural bias in developed countries. The study does not, however, explain the _distribution_ of gains and losses within the agricultural sector. It also appears to be at odds with some of the historical evidence, and with the fact that agricultural protection does not appear to be linked to relatively low growth in agricultural productivity.

Gardner (1987) provides an empirical illustration of the importance of the factors facilitating collective action. His econometric analysis of US data for 17 commodities from 1910 to the present, provides quantitative support for the predictions of the collective action model outlined above.

11
# Geospatial Analysis of Displacement in Afghanistan<sup>∗</sup>

_Anais Dahmani-Scuitti_<sup>+</sup> _, Erwin Knippenberg, Walker Kosmidou-Bradley, Johanna Lee Belanger_<sup>∗∗</sup> JEL Classification: C15, C21, O12, O15, L94, R23 Keywords: migration, displacement, geospatial analysis, econometric regressions, nighttime light

## Policy Statement

Robust monitoring systems are crucial in humanitarian interventions, particularly in the most vulnerable areas. These areas, prone to natural disasters and riven by conflict, are often hard to reach, making on-the-ground data collection logistically difficult, time-consuming, and expensive. This paper explores how remote sensing data, particularly geospatial data, can be used to monitor displacement flows in a conflict zone affected by drought. Using the 2018 drought in Northeastern Afghanistan as a case study, it shows how nighttime lights collected by satellite can be used to quantify the displacement of populations. These results can be used to predict whether a settlement was a net receiver of displacement flows in 2018-2020, providing insights that can inform humanitarian assistance.

> ∗ We declare that we have no relevant or material financial interests that relate to the research described in this paper. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank or any affiliated organizations, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This research was supported through the World Bank Budget (BB) for the Afghanistan Poverty and Equity Program FY 21-22 as part of its core analytical activities.

> + Corresponding author, adahmaniscuitti@worldbank.org

> ∗∗ _Dahmani-Scuitti:_ World Bank, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, Washington DC, USA; _Knippenberg:_ World Bank, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, Washington DC, USA; _Kosmidou-Bradley:_ World Bank, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, Dakar, Senegal; _Lee Belanger_ : World Bank, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, Washington DC, USA.
Page 26 BOX: 9

# Bangladesh: Innovations in Primary Education

In 1980, the enrollment of girls in primary school was significantly lower than the enrollment of boys, One reason for the lower female enrollment was the lack of parental and community support for the education of girls. Traditional parental attitudes favored protecting girls and educating them at home, especially when they could not be properly clothed. To help overcome this obstacle, free uniforms were included as a component of the loan.

World Bank loans have tried further to overcome the economic and socioreligious obstacles to girls' education in Bangladesh. The 1985 Primary Education Project, for example, sought to increase female enrollment by increasing the number of female teachers, by revising curriculum and textbooks to include more positive female roles, and by providing schools with more private facilities such as lavatories.

# Source: World Bank

57. Reviews suggest little evidence is available on the cost-effectiveness of such interventions in the economic literature, as few large-scale surveys have permitted their assessment (Chamie 1983; Lycette 1986). But the sociological and anthropological literature and the experience of teachers and education specialists suggest that it is worth testing such interventions in a rigorous way, with variation across social and economic groups, to help develop cost-effective ways to improve female education. Tests that cover several interventions among populations of varying characteristics would be elaborate, but simpler controlled or quasicontrolled experiments with one or two promising interventions could contribute substantially to our knowledge of "what works." Often natural experiments can be devised when programs plan to phase in new interventions, as long as trial sites are carefully chosen and baseline data collected.

58. The Bank is involved with innovative attempts to expand education for women and girls in a variety of countries, including Morocco, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Kenya, and Ghana. This should improve our understanding of what works.

59. In the meantime, on the basis of available evidence and in response to considerable interest from Operations, the Education and Employment Division is preparing an assessment of "what works" to improve female education. This should be available by June 1990. It will be the basis for guidelines for women and girls. As experience accumulates, the education guidelines and this paper may require adjusting.
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||With i|ndividual co|ntrols|With individ|ual + househol|d controls|With individ|ual + househol<br>controls|d + regional|
||Market<br>work<sup>a</sup>|Unpaid<br>work<sup>a</sup>|Other<br>activities<sup>a</sup>|Market<br>work<sup>a</sup>|Unpaid<br>work<sup>a</sup>|Other<br>activities<sup>a</sup>|Market<br>work<sup>a</sup>|Unpaid<br>work<sup>a</sup>|Other<br>activities<sup>a</sup>|
|Log of HH annual expenditure per capita||||-0.649*|-0.168|0.817***|-0.602|-0.222|0.824***|
|||||(0.390)|(0.248)|(0.317)|(0.396)|(0.251)|(0.319)|
|HH living standard index||||0.177|-0.043|-0.134|0.182|-0.002|-0.180|
|||||(0.131)|(0.083)|(0.109)|(0.135)|(0.084)|(0.111)|
|Number of children aged 6–14 years||||-0.034|0.174|-0.140|0.042|0.158|-0.199|
|||||(0.216)|(0.130)|(0.169)|(0.215)|(0.132)|(0.165)|
|Number of HH members aged 15–64 years –||||0.063|0.125|-0.188|0.109|0.097|-0.206|
|women||||(0.297)|(0.192)|(0.215)|(0.287)|(0.187)|(0.210)|
|Number of HH members aged 15–64 years –||||-0.786***|0.391***|0.395*|-0.760***|0.404***|0.355*|
|men||||(0.278)|(0.146)|(0.210)|(0.272)|(0.144)|(0.205)|
|Number of HH members aged 65+||||<br>0.040|<br>-0.044|<br>0.003|<br>0.048|<br>0.013|<br>-0.060|
|||||(0.599)|(0.385)|(0.391)|(0.571)|(0.376)|(0.369_|
|Dhaka City Corporation (=1)|||||||<br>0.005|<br>-0.401**|<br>0.395*|
||||||||(0.304)|(0.194)|(0.241)|
|Slum (=1)|||||||-0.133|-0.350|0.483*|
||||||||(0.359)|(0.234)|(0.289)|
|_Ref: Birthplace: Central_||||||||||
|Northern|||||||1.689**|-0.667*|-1.021**|
||||||||(0.680)|(0.362)|(0.505)|
|Eastern|||||||-0.475|-0.260|0.735*|
||||||||(0.503)|(0.293)|(0.398)|
|Southern|||||||0.762*|-0.392|-0.371|
||||||||(0.419)|(0.251)|(0.344)|
|Constant|0.240|1.933|21.828***|7.971*|2.948|13.081***|7.462*|4.116|12.421***|
||(2.621)|(1.687)|(2.199)|(4.381)|(3.151)|(3.682)|(4.403)|(3.168)|(3.698)|
|Observations|1,076|1,076|1,076|1,076|1,076|1,076|1,076|1,076|1,076|

Note:<sup>a.</sup> For the definitions of labor market work, unpaid work and other activities see footnote of Figure 3.

- <sup>a.</sup> *** 1%, ** 5% and * 10% level of significance.

- b. Standard errors are in parentheses.

- b. Survey weight applied.

22
to pay the fixed setup cost of switching to that technology. Poverty is reduced as adoption of the new technology sets off a structural transformation process that increases wages. The necessary demand to overcome the fixed cost of technology adoption may come from either the domestic or the international market. Importantly, economies of scale can be achieved even in sectors serving primarily domestic demand (e.g., services); in such a case, the role of exports from the tradable sector is that they provide income that translates into additional demand for all sectors, including those that are non-tradable. Increased demand stemming from broad household ownership of firm profits is the key channel through which an equitable distribution of wealth and income improves labor productivity in the general equilibrium model we use to motivate our empirical analysis (Murphy, Shleifer, and Vishny, 1989).

The size of the international market is measured on the basis of a new database of the legallybinding provisions of international trade agreements, which include the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the various agreements of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and 279 preferential trade agreements (PTAs) whose provisions are recorded by Hofmann, Osnago, and Ruta (2017). These provisions primarily establish rights related to goods and services trade, but also relate to flows of capital, ideas, and labor, and together make up the legal architecture of the international economy. The size of a given country’s integrated international market is calculated by summing the population and income (or, alternatively, size of middle class) of all other countries, where those countries are weighted by the number of economic integration provisions a country has signed with them. Though the relative per capita income of the integrated market declines rapidly with a country’s national income in our sample, we find that its effect on sustained poverty reduction is positive, quantitatively large and statistically significant, suggesting international integration has provided a pathway for poor countries to eliminate poverty in the past. These results are highly relevant in light of the existing evidence that poverty declines more slowly among countries that are initially poor (Ravallion, 2012).

Setting the size of the integrated international market to zero in a counterfactual scenario allows us to isolate the effect of domestic market size alone on sustained poverty reduction, which quantifies the hope for development in a less integrated economy. The size of the domestic market is measured as a function of the income distribution, as summarized by the share of the population in the global middle class (defined based on Kharas (2017) to include those living on $11-110 PPP per day in 2011 US dollars). The use of an absolute, rather than relative, definition for the middle class reflects the assumption that the increasing returns technology is the same across countries. Like the size of the international market, the middle class share has a positive and significant effect on sustained 4
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