# **Table 7. Output Table of the No Policy Change Scenario**

## **Alternative Scenario 2: No Policy Change (Constant Primary Balance)**

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

||**Actual**||**Projections**|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||2005<br>2006|2007|2008|2009|2010|2011||
||||||||**Debt-stabilizing**|
|**I. Base**|**line Medium-Term Projections**||||||**primary**|
||||||||**deficit**|
|Public sector debt 1/|61.2<br>**53.7**|**47.8**|**42.5**|**36.8**|**30.9**|**24.6**||
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (net)|17.1<br>16.0|14.7|13.4|12.5|11.5|10.3||
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (gross)|22.7<br>21.3|19.8|18.3|17.2|15.9|14.4||
|o/w domestic debt (net) 3/|44.1<br>37.7|33.1|29.1|24.3|19.4|14.4||
|Change in public sector debt|-2.0<br>-7.6|-5.8|-5.3|-5.6|-5.9|-6.3|0.0|
|Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)|-4.2<br>-7.6|-5.8|-5.3|-5.6|-5.9|-6.3|0.0|
|Primary deficit|-6.5<br>-6.5|-6.5|-6.5|-6.5|-6.5|-6.5|**-0.1**|
|Revenue and grants|67.2<br>67.2|67.2|67.2|67.2|67.2|67.2||
|Primary (noninterest) expenditure|60.7<br>60.7|60.7|60.7|60.7|60.7|60.7||
|Seignorage|-0.6<br>-0.7|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|-0.6|
|Automatic debt dynamics 2/|3.4<br>0.0|1.7|1.8|1.5|1.2|0.8|0.7|
|Contribution from interest rate/growth differential|2.4<br>0.2|1.8|1.8|1.6|1.3|1.0|0.8|
|Of which contribution from real interest rate|5.3<br>3.1|4.3|4.1|3.6|3.0|2.4|2.0|
|Contribution from domestic real interest rate 4/|4.1<br>1.6|2.8|2.7|2.3|1.8|1.3|0.9|
|Contribution from real interest rate on foreign debt 5/|1.6<br>1.7|1.7|1.6|1.4|1.3|1.2|1.1|
|Contribution from real interest rate on net foreign assets 6/|-0.4<br>-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|
|Of which contribution from real GDP growth|-2.9<br>-2.9|-2.6|-2.3|-2.0|-1.8|-1.5|-1.2|
|Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation 7/|0.9<br>-0.2|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|-0.1|
|Other identified debt-creating flows|-0.4<br>-0.4|-0.4|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Privatization receipts (negative)|-0.4<br>-0.4|-0.4|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities|0.0<br>0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)|0.0<br>0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Residual, including asset changes (2-3)|2.2<br>0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Public debt in percent of revenues 1/|91.1<br>79.8|71.1|63.2|54.8|46.0|36.7||
|Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio|-4.5<br>1.1|-0.6|-1.2|-0.8|-0.6|-0.2|-0.1|
|Required deficit reduction|-2.0<br>-7.6|-5.8|-5.3|-5.6|-5.9|-6.3|-6.4|
|**Gross financing**5/|36.9<br>22.5|20.1|17.0|13.5|9.9|6.2||
|in billions of U.S. dollars|128.9<br>82.0|79.0|71.7|61.6|48.8|33.1|For debt|
|**Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions**|||||||stabilization|
|Real GDP growth (in percent)|4.8<br>5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|
|Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/|15.9<br>11.0|13.2|13.1|13.1|12.9|12.8||
|Average nominal interest rate on public domestic debt (in percent) 11/|16.8<br>9.9|12.5|12.3|12.0|11.5|10.7|10.7|
|Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt|10.3<br>10.4|10.9|10.9|10.9|10.9|10.9|10.9|
|Average nominal interest rate on NFA (in percent) 12/|10.3<br>5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|
|Average real interest rate (including real exchange rate appreciation)|10.3<br>4.6|7.7|8.3|7.9|7.6|7.0||
|<br>Change in the real exchange rate (Local currency per US dollar) 13/|5.1<br>-1.0|-0.5|-0.4|-0.8|-0.8|-1.0|-1.0|
|<br>Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)|9.3<br>2.5|1.4|0.5|0.2|0.2|0.0||
|Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)|0.0<br>0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||
|Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)<br>|-8.5<br>-2.4<br><br>|-1.4<br>|-0.5<br>|-0.2<br>|-0.2<br>|0.0<br>||
|Inflation rate (in percent)|6.8<br>6.0|4.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|3.5|
|<br>US Inflation rate (in percent)|2.7<br>2.4|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|
|Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)|5.9<br>5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0||
|Base Money (percent of GDP)|7.79<br>7.71|7.66|7.66|7.66|7.66|7.66||

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