# 4. Results

## 4.1. Logistic Regressions

Annex C presents the full results for Logit (and Lasso) estimation.<sup>13</sup> For brevity, Table 2 below only reports those related to trust and some selected individual controls.<sup>14</sup> Signing a petition is the dependent variable in model 1 of Table 2. Trust in government has a significant and negative effect on signing a petition: the odds of signing a petition fall by a factor of 0.15 when trust in government rises by one standard deviation. This indicates that the odds of signing a petition are roughly 14 percent lower for those who have trust in the government. Trust in other people or interpersonal trust, instead, has a significant and positive effect on signing a petition. Interpersonal trust increases the odds of signing a petition by 15 percent.

As (subjective) income and education levels increase, so does the probability of signing a petition. Being older, being employed, receiving a subsidy, having internet access at home, owning the home one lives in, and belonging to a lower socioeconomic class are all associated with a higher probability of signing a petition. Unsurprisingly, interest in politics makes someone more likely to sign a petition. Having been a victim of a crime or having experienced discrimination at least once both enhance the likelihood of signing a petition. Conversely, having experienced food insecurity and being a man are both negatively associated with signing a petition. All these results are statistically significant.

The dependent variable in model 2 in Table 2 is participating in demonstrations. Trust in the police has a significant effect on participation. The log odds of participating in demonstrations decrease by a factor of 0.24 when trust in police increases by one standard deviation. This indicates that the odds of attending a demonstration are approximately 21 percent lower for people who trust the police. As with signing a petition, a higher (subjective) income and education level each increases the odds of participating. Being older, being employed, belonging to a lower social class, and having an interest in politics all increase the likelihood of participation. Having felt discriminated against or having been the victim of a crime similarly prompts people to join demonstrations. Feeling that the right to speak one’s mind is guaranteed decreases one’s propensity to take part in demonstrations. However, feeling free to join any organization without fear boosts the likelihood of participation in demonstrations (as it does for signing a petition and getting involved in community work). This suggests that those who believe the political system is free engage more politically. Freedom of association is a collective right, whereas freedom of speech is a civil right connected to the individual. Our findings suggest that political participation might be more closely associated with perceptions around collective, social freedoms than individual freedoms.

> 13 Fixed effects at the country level were included in order to capture country-specific idiosyncratic effects that might be affecting political participation. Paraguay was randomly chosen as the base category. These can be observed in table C1 in Annex C. Brazil, Mexico and Guatemala are the countries with statistically significant country fixed effects for all three categories of political participation analyzed. In other countries, significant country-fixed effects are only observed when estimating signing a petition or both in signing a petition and attending demonstrations.

> 14 For the purpose of the estimation, we employed the Logit command in Stata 16.

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