We perform the exercise separately for total and regional per capita household consumption. Figure 5 shows the share of households in each decile who: (i) suffer an income loss large enough to shift them to a lower consumption decile; (ii) experience a relatively small consumption movement and therefore their position remains unchanged; and (iii) experience a positive change and therefore are better off in crises.

Approximately 40% of all households remain in the same consumption decile for total Iraq. Given that the deciles are fixed at baseline consumption levels, most of the remaining households experience a movement down and are mostly concentrated in the lower‐middle of the distribution, namely in 3rd‐7th deciles.<sup>23</sup> Having said that, the country‐level pattern is not representative of the heterogeneity of impacts across regions. Figure 5 shows while in Baghdad almost 60% of households remain in the same decile of per capita consumption, the opposite would have happened in Kurdistan. Most households would have been pushed to a lower level of welfare in IS‐affected governorates independently of their initial position. In Rest of North and Centre more than 60% of households would have been affected enough to push them down in the ladder across the distribution. In contrast, household in the South 6 out of 10 households would remain in the same situation as in the business as usual.

# **Impacts on IDP**

Since June 2014, Islamic State militants extended their influence from Syria into Iraq’s northern and western provinces of Anbar, Nineveh, Salahadin, and to a lesser extent, Kirkuk and Diyala. As mentioned above, an estimated 354,000 families were internally displaced between June and December of 2014 which represents about 2.1 million individuals.<sup>24</sup> The bulk of the forced displacement of people took place in the five IS‐affected governorates, with Anbar, Salahadin and Nineveh alone accounting for 90 percent of the displaced families (Figure 6). These internally displaced persons (IDPs) have sought refuge across Iraq – 63 percent of IDPs have crossed into other governorates, about half of them into the three governorates of Iraqi Kurdistan.

As expected, the welfare levels of this group –i.e. consumption per capita – has shrunk by more than double that for the population on average. Household consumption per capita would have decreased by almost 22% between scenarios. The impacts on total income per capita would have been more severe (i.e. ‐61.6%) under the assumption of smoothing consumption over difficult times. These were mainly driven by a massive reduction in labor income (i.e. ‐62.5%) as a consequence of job loss. Unemployment rate rises up to 27% among this population which is almost 3 times higher than the increase suffered by the whole population.

> 23A higher concentration of population in the center of the welfare/consumption distribution produces narrow consumption intervals for each decile. The narrower the decile consumption interval, the higher the likelihood of household to jump into a different decile position. Given the small positive impacts of non‐labor income mentioned above, very few households in these deciles suffered income gains as a consequence of the crises that are large enough to push them to a higher decile. However, these movements are negligible relative to the other options.

> 24Source: IOM‐OIM DTM Data January to December 25, 2014.

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