Reserve Board 1958; United Nations 1959).<sup>17</sup> In the United States, monetary policy was tightened to control inflation (Eckstein and Sinai 1986; Romer and Romer 2012). In some European countries, also, domestic demand weakened as policy measures to contain inflationary pressures were implemented. However, growth remained resilient in other parts of the world.

In 1997-98 , economic activity in many EMDEs, particularly those in Asia, weakened sharply. In fact, the global economy experienced a contraction in per capita GDP in 1998:1 as the East Asian financial crisis took a heavy toll on emerging market economies in the region. However, the world economy did not experience a recession in 1998 because growth in advanced economies held up.

In 2001 , many advanced economies experienced mild slowdowns or recessions: global per capita output declined in 2001:3, when per capita growth turned negative in a number of advanced economies, including the United States (-2.7 percent, annualized) and Japan (- 4.2 percent, annualized). However, growth in some major EMDEs, such as China and India, remained robust, helping the global economy escape a recession.

The 2012 global downturn was mainly driven by the euro area debt crisis.<sup>18</sup> Although world per capita output did not contract in any of the quarters of 2012, growth was very low (0.4 percent in 2012:2). The global economy was supported by growth in the United States and some major EMDEs.

During these four global downturns, the behavior of other global indicators was mixed, again implying that these episodes do not qualify as global recessions. For example, industrial production, trade, and consumption did not suggest a broad-based weakness in the global economy in 1998. In 2001, although industrial production fell and the rate of global unemployment picked up slightly—and although equity prices and business confidence declined sharply and policy uncertainty increased significantly following the 9/11 terrorist attacks—both global trade flows and oil consumption continued increasing. During the 2012 global downturn, some activity indicators did not show much weakness, but capital flows slowed, equity prices collapsed, and inflation declined.

In 2019, the performance of the global economy looked somewhat similar to the previous global downturns. The current estimates suggest that global output growth in 2019 was lower than that in 1998 and 2012 but still higher than that in 1958 and 2001 (Appendix 4). However, when measured in per capita terms, estimated growth in 2019 was higher than that in any of the four global downturns. Although global labor markets were tight, global trade was quite weak in 2019. Since the available data for the full year are mostly

> 17 In 1958, per capita GDP contracted in the United States (by 2.4 percent), Canada (by 1 percent), and several European countries (e.g., Belgium, by 1.2 percent; the Netherlands, by 2.4 percent; Switzerland, by 3.5 percent; the United Kingdom, by 0.1 percent). However, per capita growth was strong in other parts of the world, including Australia (4.6 percent), Germany (3.7 percent), Italy (4.1 percent), and Japan (5.3 percent).

> 18 Some euro area countries experienced financial crisis (Greece in 2012 and Cyprus in 2011-13) and some others (Ireland and Portugal) went through periods of fiscal distress (Laeven and Valencia 2018; Medas et al. 2018). A number of other euro area countries also registered relatively low economic growth during this period. The euro area recorded its lowest output growth (-0.9 percent) since 2009. Indeed, CEPR identifies the period 2011:3 to 2013:1 as a recession in the area.

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