**Table 3. Variance predictions across estimation methods**

|||_Household surv_<br>|_ey_<br> <br>|_C_<br>|_ensus_<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_Indicator_||_Günther and Harttgen (2009_|_)_<br>_SAE_|_SAE_|_SAE_|
|||_Total sample_|_Total sample_|_Communes in household survey_|_Communes not in household survey_|
|||_(1)_|_(2)_|_(3)_|_(4)_|
|Communes,|number|540||540|11|
||_Sample mean_|0.346|0.349|0.343|0.336|
|Predicted|5|0.217|0.277|0.259|0.292|
|variance,|25|0.305|0.312|0.328|0.333|
|_selected_|50|0.354|0.348|0.344|0.334|
|_percentiles_|75|0.395|0.375|0.357|0.334|
||95|0.447|0.424|0.426|0.395|

_Sources:_ Calculations using EHCVM (Enquête Harmonisée sur le Conditions de Vie des Ménages 2018–2019; Harmonized Survey on Household Living Standards 2018–2019), Living Standards Measurement Study, World Bank, Washington, DC, https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/4292; RGPHAE 2013 (2013 Recensement Général de la Population et de l'Habitat, de l'Agriculture et de l'Elevage; Population and Housing Census, 2013) (dashboard), National Agency of Statistics and Demography, Dakar, Senegal, <u>https://www.ansd.sn/enquete-et-etude/recensement-general-de-la-population-et-de-lhabitat-delagriculture-et-de-lelevage.</u> _Note:_ The Günther and Harttgen (2009) variance estimations follow equation (7). SAE = small area estimation.

The analysis also tested for the sensitivity of the results to changes in the cutoff used to define vulnerability. The commune ranking is consistent no matter the cutoff used (figure 3). For instance, the rank correlation between the baseline result and using a vulnerability threshold of 13 percent in one year (25 percent in two years) is 0.97. In a similar manner, the correlation is 0.96 when a threshold of 50 percent in one year (75 percent in two years) is used.

**Figure 3. Testing commune reranking under different probability cut-offs**

# **a. Probability of falling into poverty > 25 percent b. Probability of falling into poverty > 75 percent**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 100 200 300 400 500<br>Vulnerability Pr>50 Vulnerability Pr>50<br>500 500<br>400 400<br>300 300<br>200 200<br>Vulnerability Pr>25 Vulnerability Pr>75<br>100 100<br>0 0<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Sources:_ Calculations using EHCVM (Enquête Harmonisée sur le Conditions de Vie des Ménages 2018–2019; Harmonized Survey on Household Living Standards 2018–2019), Living Standards Measurement Study, World Bank, Washington, DC, https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/4292; RGPHAE 2013 (2013 Recensement Général de la Population et de l'Habitat, de l'Agriculture et de l'Elevage; Population and Housing Census, 2013) (dashboard), National Agency of Statistics and Demography, Dakar, Senegal, https://www.ansd.sn/enquete-et-etude/recensement-general-de-la-population-et-de-lhabitat-delagriculture-et-de-lelevage.

_Note:_ In the baseline results, a household is considered vulnerable if it has a probability of falling into poverty above 29 percent in one year (50 percent in two years). This applies to both census- and survey-based estimations. Additional cutoffs consider a household as vulnerable if the probability of falling into poverty is above 13 percent in one year (25 percent in two years) (panel a) or 50 percent in one year (75 percent in two years) (panel b).

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