11 expanding exports. Items with triple digit growth rates (and more than ECU 10 million in 1993) include sea-going vessels, civil aircraft, cathode ray tubes, gravel, cement clinker, certain chemicals, leather, ignition wiring sets, copper wires, rails, ferro-chromium, cooking appliances, removable insoles, reservoirs, zinc, french windows, beech wood, paper, and builders joinery.

# Romania

Romania's exports fell substantially over the 1989-93 period, largely reflecting the collapse of exports of mineral fuels, aluminum, furniture and wood products, and iron and steel.

Significant growth occurred in exports of clothing and footwear. Their share in total exports to the EU rose from 16 to 45 percent in 1993. There are few significant and rapidly growing 8-digit items besides clothing and footwear.

# FSU

Most of the growth in exports from the FSU are natural resources or natural resourcebased products. Copper and silver are two major exports with growth rates exceeding 100 percent per year on average. Other dynamic products are flat-rolled steel products, sunflower seeds, bovine leather, ammonium nitrate, waste and scrap of nickel and stainless steel, and collectors pieces (art works). There are few clothing or machinery products in the most dynamic 8-digit items. However, more recently manufactured exports have been expanding similarly rapidly as in Central Europe. As shown in Table 7, non-oil exports by _Russia to_ the EU more than doubled between 1992 and 1993, the year after price liberalization. Footwear and clothing exports have been growing very fast-often at triple digits-rising from ECU 9 million in 1989 to ECU 295 million in 1993, with most of the growth after 1992.

|Table 7: Russia coming on stream||
|---|---|
|(ECU bn)||
|1992|1993|
|Non-oil expons<br>2.6|5.4|

# _Declining products_

The summary measures of change in exports discussed earlier embody 'sunset' as well as 'sunrise' industries. Identification of the declining products in exports to the EU also provides information on the extent of restructuring in the CEECs and the FSU. The hardening of budget constraints and privatization programs should result in large declines in exports of those goods that used to be either heavily subsidized and/or were revealed to be nonprofitable. There is quite some diversity across the CEECs in this regard. The discussion that follows uses more aggregated data (2-digit) than the foregoing Section.

The CEECs can be separated into two groups: those with a large number of product categories where exports to the EU decline; and those with only a small number of declining products. Bulgaria, Hungary and Ramania are in the first group, the Czech and Slovak Republics and Poland in the second. The FSU is somewhere in between. Agricultural products and foodstuffs figure prominently in the declining export categories for the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Poland.

# Bulgaria

One third of product groups exported to the EU had negative growth rates, of which twothirds fell by 10 percent per year or more. The largest absolute decline occurred for iron and steel exports. In contrast to the other CEECs (see below), agriculture plays a relatively minor role in the declining product groups. Items where large declines occurred include soaps, wickerw Ac, wadding and felt, books, silk, nickel products, e'ssential oils, and fish.