rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Adding Space to the International
            Business Cycle
Growth fluctuations exhibit substantial
            synchronization across countries, which has been viewed as
            reflecting a global business cycle driven by shocks with
            worldwide reach, or spillovers resulting from local real
            and/or financial linkages between countries. This paper
            brings these two perspectives together by analyzing
            international growth fluctuations in a setting that allows
            for both global shocks and spatial dependence. Using annual
            data for 117 countries over 1970-2016, the paper finds that
            the cross-country dependence of aggregate growth is the
            combined result of global shocks summarized by a latent
            common factor and spatial effects accruing through the
            growth of nearby countries -- with proximity measured by
            bilateral trade linkages or geographic distance. The latent
            global factor shows a strong positive correlation with
            worldwide TFP growth. Countries' exposure to global
            shocks rises with their openness to trade and the degree of
            commodity specialization of their economies. Despite its
            simplicity, the empirical model fits the data well,
            especially for advanced countries. Ignoring the
            cross-country dependence of growth, by omitting spatial
            effects or common shocks (or both) from the analysis, leads
            to a marked deterioration of the empirical model's
            in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecasting performance.
Swept by the Tide The International
            Comovement of Capital Flows
This paper assesses the international
            comovement of gross capital flows in a setting
            simultaneously encompassing aggregate inflows and outflows.
            It uses as empirical framework a multilevel latent factor
            model, implemented on flow data for a large sample of
            countries over more than three decades. On average, common
            shocks account for over 40 percent of the variance of both
            inflows and outflows, although with major differences
            between advanced countries and the rest. Among the former,
            global and group shocks dominate capital flows, and the same
            shocks drive gross inflows and outflows. Among the latter
            countries, idiosyncratic shocks tend to play the leading
            role, and gross inflows exhibit less commonality with
            outflows. The latent factors configure an international
            financial cycle that closely tracks the trends in a handful
            of global "push" variables. Recursive estimation
            of the factor model reveals a rising trend in the exposure
            of countries' flows to the international
            cycle—especially for advanced economies—up to the global
            financial crisis. Exposure to the cycle is robustly related
            to countries' external financial openness and the (lack
            of) flexibility of their exchange rate regime.
Firm Dynamics, Job Outcomes, and
            Productivity : South African Formal Businesses, 2010-14
The formal private sector has a key role
            to play in fostering growth and reducing unemployment in
            South Africa—strengthening its performance is therefore
            critical. This paper looks at firm behaviour, firm entry and
            exit, job outcomes, and productivity dynamics using
            firm-level administrative data for South Africa. It is the
            first paper to benchmark employment and productivity
            dynamics against various comparator countries for which
            similar analysis has been undertaken. The paper finds that
            South Africa has an aged private sector with low firm
            dynamism and characterized by large firms that hold a large
            share of employment and revenue, although they are not as
            productive as micro firms and pay lower wages on average.
            The paper also finds that job creation is concentrated
            predominantly in incumbent firms, which are old and large,
            and job creation from entry and exit is negligible. The
            static and dynamic productivity decompositions raise a
            concern that although productive efficiency is gained, it is
            at least in part at the expense of labor. Large firms are
            not exploiting economies of scale, and particularly
            unproductive large firms may drive the weak performance of
            the private sector. Relatively high wages in South Africa
            could be partly explained by the inefficient use of labor
            and negative correlation between productivity and size.
            Likewise, these larger firms could be responsible for the
            negative direct impact on jobs of firms raising productivity.
Returns to Investment in Education :
            The Case of Turkey
This paper estimates private and social
            returns to investment in education in Turkey, using the 2017
            Household Labor Force Survey and alternative methodologies.
            The analysis uses the 1997 education reform of increasing
            compulsory education by three years as an instrument. This
            results in a private rate of return on the order of 16
            percent for higher education and a social return of 10
            percent. Using the number of children younger than age 15 in
            the household as an exclusion restriction, the analysis
            finds that returns to education for females are higher than
            those for males. Contrary to many findings in other
            countries, private returns to those working in the public
            sector are higher than those in the private sector, and
            private returns to those who followed the vocational track
            in secondary education are higher than those in the general
            academic track. The paper discusses the policy implications
            of the findings.
Estimation of the ex ante
            Distribution of Returns for a Portfolio of U.S. Treasury
            Securities via Deep Learning
This paper presents different deep
            neural network architectures designed to forecast the
            distribution of returns on a portfolio of U.S. Treasury
            securities. A long short-term memory model and a
            convolutional neural network are tested as the main building
            blocks of each architecture. The models are then augmented
            by cross-sectional data and the portfolio's empirical
            distribution. The paper also presents the fit and
            generalization potential of each approach.
What Explains Latin America's
            Low Share of Industrial Employment
This paper investigates the relative
            importance of different channels in explaining the low share
            of industrial employment in Latin America relative to the
            economies that employ a large share of the workforce in
            industry. Differences in domestic final consumption shares
            play a pivotal role and can account for 50-70 percent of the
            industrial share gap. The paper finds limited support for
            the comparative advantage hypothesis, as differences in
            trading patterns account for less than 15 percent of the
            gap. More important are the differences in sectoral linkages
            and wage gaps which account for more than 30 percent of the
            industrial employment gap individually.
Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity
            in South Asia
This paper analyzes whether fiscal
            policy in South Asia amplifies or smooths business cycle
            fluctuations. The paper estimates several econometric models
            to explore the cyclicality of government spending and tax
            buoyancy. The findings show that fiscal policy is
            procyclical in most countries. In South Asia, tax revenue
            increases less than one to one with gross domestic product,
            but public spending increases more than proportionally.
            While changes in tax revenue have no significant impact on
            economic activity, the government spending multiplier is
            positive and significant: an additional 1 USD of spending
            leads to an immediate increase in gross domestic product of
            0.3 USD and a cumulative increase of 0.6 USD. The impact of
            public spending on economic activity is entirely due to
            capital expenditure, which is also more procyclical.
            Procyclical public spending and a positive expenditure
            multiplier imply that fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies
            boom-and-bust cycles.
Import Uncertainty and Export Dynamics
A supply chain is only as strong as its
            weakest link. Firms are constantly managing uncertainties,
            including unexpected delays in the provision of a critical
            input that can slow down or halt the production process,
            possibly making the manufacturer miss a delivery deadline.
            As most exporters are also importers of intermediate goods,
            supply chain unreliability related to import processing
            times at the border could impact downstream export dynamics.
            Exploiting a rich data set built on firm-level information
            for 48 developing countries over 2006-14, this paper relies
            on the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator to
            investigate how unpredictability in border clearance times
            for imports affects manufacturing firms' entry, exit,
            and survival in export markets. The analysis finds that
            uncertainty in the time to clear imported inputs impacts
            neither the entry nor the exit rate, but translates into
            lower survival rates for new exporters, reducing the number
            of firms that continue to serve the foreign market beyond
            their first year of entry. This effect grows larger over
            time, owing to rising reputational costs to input-importing
            exporters, and is mainly driven by South-North trade,
            possibly reflecting the time-sensitivity of buyers in
            developed countries. The results also reveal heterogeneous
            effects across export industries, as well as the mediating
            role of sunk costs of entry in foreign markets, which
            attenuate the negative effect of uncertainty on survival
            rates, as firms delay exiting the export market. Most
            importantly, the measure of uncertainty displays a
            distinctive effect on export performance, as neither the
            mean nor the median time to import impacts survival.
Debt in Low-Income Countries :
            Evolution, Implications, and Remedies
Debt vulnerabilities in low-income
            countries have increased substantially in recent years.
            Since 2013, median government debt has risen by about 20
            percentage points of gross domestic product and increasingly
            comes from non-concessional and private sources. As a
            result, in most low-income countries, interest payments are
            absorbing an increasing proportion of government revenues.
            The majority of low-income countries would be hard hit by a
            sudden weakening in trade or global financial conditions
            given high levels of external debt, lack of fiscal space,
            low foreign currency reserves, and undiversified exports. A
            proactive effort to identify and reduce debt-related
            vulnerabilities is a priority for many low-income countries.
            Policy makers should focus on mobilizing domestic resources,
            improving debt transparency, and strengthening debt
            management practices. These efforts should be complemented
            by measures to strengthen fiscal frameworks, improve the
            efficiency of public expenditures and public investment
            management, and develop domestic financial systems.
Mangroves for Coastal Protection :
            Evidence from Hurricanes in Central America
This paper evaluates whether mangroves
            can mitigate the impact of hurricanes on economic activity.
            The paper assembles a new, regionwide panel data set that
            measures local economic activity using nightlights,
            potential hurricane damages using a detailed hurricane
            windstorm model, and mangrove protection by mapping the
            width of mangrove forests on the path to the coast. The
            results show that hurricanes have negative short-run effects
            on economic activity, with losses likely concentrated in
            coastal lowlands that are exposed to both wind and storm
            surge hazards. In these coastal lowlands, the estimates show
            that nightlights decrease by up to 24 percent in areas that
            are unprotected by mangroves. By comparison, the impact of
            the hurricanes observed in the sample is fully mitigated in
            areas protected by mangrove belts of one or more kilometers.
Electrification and Women's
            Empowerment : Evidence from Rural India
Electrification has been shown to
            accelerate opportunities for women by moving them into more
            productive activities, but whether improvements in economic
            outcomes also change gender norms and practices within the
            household remains unclear. This paper investigates the
            causal link between electricity access and women's
            empowerment, using a large gender-disaggregated data set on
            India. Empowerment is measured by women's
            decision-making ability, mobility, financial autonomy,
            reproductive freedom, and social participation. Using
            propensity score matching, the study finds that
            electrification enhances all measures of women's
            empowerment and is associated with an 11-percentage point
            increase in the overall empowerment index. Employment and
            education are identified as the two most important causal
            channels through which electrification enables empowerment.
Of Governance and Revenue :
            Participatory Institutions and Tax Compliance in Brazil
Traditionally, governments seek to
            mobilize tax revenues by expanding their enforcement of
            existing tax regimes and facilitating tax payments. However,
            enforcement and facilitation can be costly and produce
            diminishing marginal returns if citizens are unwilling to
            pay their taxes. This paper addresses gaps in knowledge
            about tax compliance, by asking a basic question: what
            explains why citizens and businesses comply with tax rules?
            To answer this question, the paper shows how the voluntary
            adoption of two different types of participatory governance
            institutions influences municipal tax collection in Brazil.
            Municipalities that voluntarily adopt participatory
            institutions collect significantly higher levels of taxes
            than similar municipalities without these institutions. The
            paper provides evidence that moves scholarship on tax
            compliance beyond enforcement and facilitation paradigms,
            while offering a better assessment of the role of local
            democratic institutions for government performance and tax compliance.
Accounting for Regional Differences
            in Mother and Child Health : Bangladesh, West Bengal, Bihar,
            and Jharkhand
Using recent Demographic Health Survey
            data for Bangladesh and the neighboring Indian states of
            Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal, this paper reexamines the
            determinants of child wasting and maternal anemia. The
            findings bear out the importance of commonly cited factors,
            such as mother’s education and age, household wealth, and
            child birth order. However, the findings also highlight
            significant and large regional differences between Indian
            states and Bangladeshi provinces. For example, the results
            for Jharkhand state in India and Barisal province in
            Bangladesh indicate that controlling for those commonly
            cited determinants, the poorest, least-educated mothers and
            their children in Barisal have better health outcomes than
            the wealthiest, best-educated counterparts in Jharkhand.
            Mapping analysis of the spatial variations in child wasting
            and maternal anemia shows clear patterns of clustering over
            large areas that frequently overlap state/province and
            national boundaries. Possible sources of these striking
            differences include spatially differentiated prices and
            availability of critical nutrients; dietary preferences
            related to religion and ethnicity; nutrition education; and
            administration of public health and nutrition policy.
Micro-Equity for Microenterprises
Many microenterprises in developing
            countries have high returns to capital, but also face risky
            revenue streams. In principle, equity offers several
            advantages over debt when financing investments of this
            nature, but the use of equity in practice has been largely
            limited to investments in much larger firms. The authors
            develop a model contract to make self-liquidating,
            quasi-equity investments in microenterprises. This contract
            has three key parameters that can be used to shift risk
            between the entrepreneur and the investor, resulting in a
            continuum of contracts ranging from a debt-like contract
            that shifts little risk from the entrepreneur to a pure
            revenue-sharing contract in which the investor absorbs much
            more of the risk. The paper discusses implementation
            choices, and then provides lessons from a proof-of-concept
            carried out by an investment partner, KGC Equity, which made
            nine investments averaging $3,800 in Sri Lankan
            microenterprises. This pilot demonstrates that this new
            contract structure can work in practice, but also highlights
            the difficulties of micro-equity investments in an
            environment with weak contract enforcement.
What Works to Reduce Inequalities in
            Higher Education A Systematic Review of the
            (Quasi-)Experimental Literature on Outreach and Financial Aid
Policy makers are increasingly searching
            for ways to allow more disadvantaged students to access and
            complete higher education. The quickly growing
            (quasi-)experimental literature on policy interventions in
            higher education provide the opportunity to identify the
            causal effects of these interventions on disadvantaged
            students and discuss inequality mechanisms at the last stage
            of the educational system. The paper reviews 75 studies and
            rigorously compares more than 200 causal effects of outreach
            and financial aid interventions on the access and completion
            rates of disadvantaged students in higher education. The
            paper finds that outreach policies are broadly effective in
            increasing access for disadvantaged students when these
            policies include active counseling or simplify the
            university application process, but not when they only
            provide general information on higher education. For
            financial aid, the paper finds that need-based grants do not
            systematically increase enrollment rates but only lead to
            improvements when they provide enough money to cover unmet
            need and/or include an early commitment during high school.
            Still, need-based grants quite consistently appear to
            improve the completion rates of disadvantaged students. In
            contrast, the evidence indicates that merit-based grants
            only rarely improve the outcomes of disadvantaged students.
            Finally, interventions combining outreach and financial aid
            have brought promising results, although more research on
            these mixed interventions is needed.
Family Firms and Contractual Institutions
This paper offers new evidence on the
            relationship between contractual institutions, family
            management, and aggregate performance. The study creates a
            new firm-level database on management and ownership
            structures spanning 134 regions in 11 European countries. To
            guide the empirical analysis, it develops a model of
            industry equilibrium in which heterogeneous firms decide
            between family and professional management when the latter
            are subject to contracting frictions. The paper tests the
            model's predictions using regional variation in trust
            within countries. Consistent with the model, the finding
            show that there is sorting of firms across management modes,
            in which smaller firms and those in regions with worse
            contracting environments are more likely to be family
            managed. These firms are on average 25 percent less
            productive than professionally managed firms, and moving
            from the country with the least reliable contracting
            environment to the most increases total factor productivity
            by 21.6 percent. Family management rather than ownership
            drives these results.
Distributional Effects of Tobacco
            Taxation : A Comparative Analysis
Tobacco taxes have positive impacts on
            health outcomes. However, policy makers often hesitate to
            use them because of the perception that poorer households
            are affected disproportionally more than richer households.
            This study compares the simulated distributional effects of
            tobacco tax increases in eight low- and middle-income
            countries. It applies a standardized extended cost-benefit
            analysis methodology and relies on comparable data sources
            across countries. The net effect of raising taxes on
            cigarettes encompasses the direct negative price shock to
            household budgets and the long-term benefits of improved
            health outcomes. The distributional incidence is assessed by
            estimating decile-specific behavioral responses and relative
            income gains. The comparative results do not support the
            claim that tobacco taxes are necessarily regressive.
            Although welfare losses from the first-order price shock
            disproportionally affect the poor, these negative shocks are
            attenuated by greater price-responsiveness among
            lower-income groups and further offset by higher long-term
            relative gains through reduced medical expenditures and
            additional years of productive life as taxes dissuade
            smoking. In several countries, increasing the price of
            cigarettes is pro-poor and welfare improving for a large
            share of the population. Along with raising taxes, policy
            should aim at encouraging responsiveness to price changes
            and target tobacco-related medical expenses that
            disproportionally burden the poor.