_ANDR EE_<sup>_ ́_</sup> _SEPTEMBER 28, 2022_ _28_ history and extrapolate beyond observed intervals. Overall, the model explained holdout data with an R<sup>2</sup> of above 0 _._ 95 using 11 basic indicators. The model was applied to the IMF’s WEO database of April 2022 to project the severely food insecure population across the World Bank’s full cohort of 144 IDA-eligible and IBRD countries that together cover approximately 98% of global historical food insecure populations.

Based on the economic forecasts of the WEO of April 2022, the number of people that are severely food insecure for a sustained period of 3 years is estimated to reach over 1 billion people in 2022 globally (an IDA + IBRD wide prevalence rate of 15%). This constitutes an increase of over 172 million people (a relative increase of 21%, or a 2 point increase in the prevalence rate) over 2017-2019 prepandemic estimates from the same model. This projection concerns unmitigated impacts extrapolated from 2019 data that do not reflect the large amounts of aid and supportive policies that characterized the pandemic years, but have also not yet factored in the effects of sanctions and export restrictions imposed after March 31, 2022. Bearing these uncertainties in mind, the overall direction of the projection remains clear and paints a protracted picture in which the previously anticipated rebound in headline growth occurs unequally, leaving many behind in food insecure conditions. The projected improvement of about 0.5 point in the prevalence rate after the 2022 peak is not sufficient to offset continued population growth. Without large-scale targeted interventions, the size of the population in need of assistance is projected to remain above 1 billion through 2027.

While the projected population in need grows sharply, rising commodity prices have also increased the per capita costs of a humanitarian response. Using basic assumptions about response costs, adjusted annually for varying global food prices, the analysis estimated temporal trends in global development assistance needs. The analysis highlighted that while the prevalence of food insecurity had already been on the rise during 2015-2019, this development was largely countered by favorable developments in global food prices so that development assistance financing needs rose only modestly. The compounding effects of rising food insecurity and rising food prices since 2020, however, have a drastic effect on projected future needs. In a downside scenario, the annual cash value of feeding the entire severely food insecure population increases by US $ 387 billion from 2018 to 2027. This top up in single year needs alone is 172% of the total cash value of feeding the entire 2018 severely food insecure population a full year. The basic arithmetic suggests that global food prices must come down in order for the global food security situation to become more manageable.

The analysis finally investigated whether normalizing growth, poverty, and inflation is sufficient to revert food insecurity back to pre-pandemic levels, and found that it is not. In most regions of the world, targeted interventions may be needed to mitigate the impacts of the current crisis even if previous economic trajectories are restored. Numerical optimization was used to simulate a restructuring of domestic food supply systems. The counterfactual prediction results showed