Saharan Africa have seen consistently _rising_ numbers living in extreme poverty, despite the impressive global record of bringing down the overall poverty headcount since 1990.

The contribution of this paper is therefore not to challenge or contradict the empirical tests for unconditional beta convergence at a global level, nor indeed to contradict the astounding growth and poverty reductions records of countries such as China. Instead, we intend to offer an alternative perspective, with particular focus on those ‘left behind’, including those among the bottom billion. We also seek to clarify why convergence results may suffer from data limitations but also why they may be compatible with the ugly fact that a large group of developing countries are expected to continue to slip ever further behind the rest of the world.

We argue that what matters most is how we can use such analysis to help inform policy making – both at the national and international levels. Global unconditional convergence would be both an encouraging trend and a striking empirical finding. However, even if narrowly correct, we argue that it masks important underlying policy challenges faced in those countries increasingly left behind. We cannot rest on our laurels, and indeed we predict the empirical result of unconditional convergence will soon reverse as data collection catches up with the bleak reality on the ground today. We should be prepared, not surprised, when this occurs.

# Divergence, big time

Over the past three decades, the world has experienced remarkable economic growth, transforming some of the poorest societies into industrial powerhouses and making significant strides towards eradicating extreme poverty. Countries like China, India, and many East Asian economies are quickly narrowing the gap with early industrialized nations such as Great Britain, Germany, and the United States.<sup>4</sup> Lant Pritchett’s 1997 paper “Divergence, Big Time” has become superseded by the impressively strong economic performance of Asian economies during the 2000s and 2010s.

However, this striking growth record – or ‘growth miracle’ - has not been distributed equally across the globe. Numerous countries continue to grapple with stagnant prosperity levels since their political independence in the 1960s, and millions of their citizens still live in extreme poverty. These societies have not only failed to catch up but have yet to initiate the structural transformation needed to become modern, diversified economies. For example, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe have experienced little improvement in their citizens' per capita GDP since the 1960s.

The widening disparity between successful emerging markets and the remaining developing nations has become a subject of significant policy interest. These less successful countries often exhibit characteristics of fragility and conflict, which further contributes to their stagnation. Additionally, these nations may experience escalating poverty levels as a result of their lack of economic progress and comparatively higher fertility rates. For example, a World Bank report

> 4 In terms of per capita GDP, some, like Singapore ($73k in 2021), have even surpassed the UK ($47k in 2021) and the US ($70k in 2021).

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