rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
27 51. Space does not permit elaboration here, but further insights and changes in practice may be stimulated by emerging concepts from some of the following areas of science and phiosophy:

- entropy (see Appendix);

- the afore-mentioned "geophysiology" (Lovelock's Gaia Hypothesis);

- physics (e.g., new theories of time, holonomy, new energy technologies);

- the marriage of ecology and psychology (e.g., Gregory Bateson, Morris Berman, and "reenchantment"45);

- paradoxical and other "non-rational" or 'eyond technical rationalism" logics46 47;

52. On the sosio-political front, possibilities for great changes in both the availability of resources for environmental management and in the ways they are utilized are evolving so rapidly, it is almost dizzying. Three arenas from which new insights and changes in the feasibility of advances are particulaly intriguing:

- looking at environmentalism as a polidcal movement (Green politics); and

- the pactice of environmental management in traditional, non-market economy cultures.

- changing ideas of "national security."

# Changing Conceptions of National Security

53. In the introductory "Context" secdon of the paper, the Brundtland Commission and two articles on redefining national security to incorporate ecological stability as well as economic interests while recognizing a changing role for the military, were cited. 'Envomental stress" has become a major source of political tension and military acdon in the world. Amongst the several ecological threats which may force such a redefiniton are:

- growing numbers (millions per year) of "ecological refugees," often mistaken as polidcal or military refugees, in many countries.

- the very real possibility of regional conflicts over water and other resources in the coming decades, particularly in the Middle East, where water shortages are becoming a

- _45_ Bawson, Gregory, 1979. _Mind and Nature: A Necessary Unity._ Bantam, New York. and Berman, Morris, 1981. _The Reenchanment of the World._ Cornell **University Pss,*** Iaa, NY.

- 46 Hawk, David, 1986 (draft). "Regulation of 'The Non-Rational: Approaches to the Management of Enviromnental Quality", in Eric Trist (Ed.), _i'lans Without Plans,_ in press.

- _47_ Miller, Alan, 1985. "Technological Thinidng: Its Impact on Environmental Management." _Environmental Management 9:_ 3; 179-190, p. 179.
years, at a cost of about $61 million. It aimed to rehabilitate 3,500 kilometers of district roads and 1,500 kilometers of communal roads. In each participating province, road links were identified for rehabilitation through least cost techniques.<sup>6</sup> The project stipulated that no new roads should be built. However, eligible existing roads were often impassable by motor vehicle for much of the year.

As noted, RTP1 funds were earmarked for the rehabilitation of commune and district level (or rural) roads. These roads are normally the responsibility of commune and district governments who typically lack the resources for anything other than routine maintenance, which is implemented by commune residents. When funding from the central government or international donors does become available, the provincial authorities channel the funds to the targeted communes. The project is implemented through the central government’s MOT, which chose provinces for participation. Its provincial offices were then in charge of picking communes and road links to be rehabilitated, as well as appropriate contractors following a competitive bidding process.

Road link selection is in theory based on a number of conditions imposed by the project: average investment costs being no more than $15,000 per km and the population served being at least 300 people per kilometer. In an effort to extend project benefits to low density, mountainous areas with concentrations of ethnic minority populations, 20 percent of each province’s rehabilitation funds could be set aside for roads not justified under the population and cost criteria.

# **4. Data and preliminary results**

We use a data set that was created specifically for evaluating the impact on living standards of the rural roads rehabilitated under RTP1. The "Survey of Impacts of Rural Roads in Vietnam" (SIRRV) is a panel data set of pre-project baseline and post-project data for both project (“treatment”) and non-project (“comparison”) areas.<sup>7</sup> The data were collected in six of the 18 provinces included in RTP1. Two provinces were randomly picked from the participating provinces in the country’s north (Lao Cai and Thai Nguyen), center (Nghe An and Kon Tum) and south (Binh Thuan and Tra Vinh). The first author

> 6 Least cost techniques refer to the minimum-cost engineering solution that ensures a minimum level of motorized passability.

> 7 For a more detailed description of the SIRRV see van de Walle (2007).

7
- [37] Straub, R. and I. Tchakarov (2007), ‘Assessing the Impact of a Change in the Composition of Public Spending’ECB Working Paper No. 795.

- [38] Tagkalakis, A. (2008), ‘The e¤ects of ...scal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions’, Journal of Public Economics, 92: 1486 - 1508.

- [39] Weise, C. L. (1999), ‘The Asymmetric E¤ects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 31(1),85 - 108.

- [40] Woodford, M. (2011), ‘Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(1): 1 - 35.

- [41] World Bank (1999), ‘Malaysia: Public Expenditure Review’, Washington D.C.

24
in poverty during this time: the incidence of poverty declined from 48.9 percent in 2000 to 31.5 percent in 2010 (World Bank, 2013). Among the other variables, access to electricity by households improved considerably during the decade (6.3 percent annual growth rate). There is a decline in the proportion of urban households in our sample over the years which re‡ects higher growth of population in metropolitan cities compared with the other urban areas (rural towns).

# (5) Empirical Results

In this section, we present the main empirical results along with some robustness checks. The main variables: wages, per capita expenditure, yield, and rainfall are expressed in logarithms, while the hired agricultural labor is measured as share of total employment. All regressions include upazila and year ...xed e¤ects. All standard errors are corrected for correlation in the error term within upazila.

## (5.1) Rainfall and Agricultural Productivity

We begin with the evidence on the e¤ects of rainfall variations on agricultural productivity. Table 2 reports the results from regressions where log of crop yield is regressed on log of rainfall after controlling for upazila and year ...xed e¤ects. Column (1) shows the results when no other explanatory variable is included in the regression. The speci...cation in column (2) includes the full set of upazila level time-varying controls as discussed in empirical strategy section (section 3). All of the regressions show statistically and numerically signi...cant impact of rainfall on rice yield which is consistent with a priori expectations. The estimated coe¢ cients imply an increase in yield growth when there is a positive shock in rainfall over its mean level. This result is consistent with ...ndings from a rich body of evidence accumulated by the agronomists and crop scientists that shows that rainfall is a 23
Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4374

# **Abstract**

This paper explores the major challenges to the sustainability of health sector financing in the countries of the Western Balkans – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and the province of Kosovo. It focuses on how the incentives created by the different elements of the healthcare financing system affect the behavior of healthcare providers and individuals, and the resulting inefficiencies in revenue collection and expenditure containment. The paper analyzes patterns of healthcare expenditure, finding that there is some evidence of cost containment, but that current expenditure levels – while similar to that in EU countries as a share of GDP – are low in per capita terms and the fiscal space to increase expenditures is extremely limited. It also examines the key drivers of current healthcare expenditure and the most significant barriers to revenue generation, identifying some key health reforms that countries in the sub-region could consider in order to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of their health systems. Data are drawn from international databases, country institutions, and household surveys.

This paper—a product of the Health, Nutrition and Population Division, Human Development Department of the Europe and Central Asia Region—is part of a larger effort in the department to understand issues of efficiency and sustainability of health financing in the countries of the Western Balkans. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at cbredenkamp@worldbank.org and mgragnolati@worldbank. org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
- 12 -

# Summary

While planning for monitoring of project inputs and processes has improved, it has generally been restricted to centralized information systems to support the project information needs of the Ministry and the Bank. Other levels of education have benefitted little. Evaluation of outcomes is largely lacking. Very little progress has been made in the establishment of sustainable evaluation capacity, in part due to weak investment designs, and in part to perceived lack of utility of evaluation on the part of Borrowers. The strong policy and incentive support for project M&E and the development of system capacity that might address such reluctance has not yet become part of lending strategies. The Bank's experience with more complex research evaluation studies has not been encouraging.

This situation gives rise to considerable concern in an era when educators in developing countries are challenged to improve system efficiency and effectiveness under conditions of scarce resources. And because meeting this challenge will require more complex strategies of educational change under conditions of great uncertainty (political, financial and technical), the need for effective evaluation is greater than in the past. Indeed, the development of testing and monitoring systems has been identified as a critical input to the improvement of education in Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank, 1987).

Finally, the evolving nature of Bank lending for education must be taken into account. The growing emphasis on sector and Alicy lending shifts the focus of the dialogue between Borrowers and the Bar. away from investments in specific institutions towards policy and organizational changes to improve system quality and efficiency. The details of implementation in these kinds of investments are increasingly left to Borrower determination. And while more traditional investment projects will continue to be an important part of the portfolio, resource constraints in Bank operations have reduced the amount of staff time available for preparation and supervision. In short, the ability of Bank staff to engage with Borrowers in the development of evaluation capacity is likely to be reduced. Under these circumstances, both Bank and Borrower staff need to have a clear sense of what kinds of evaluation capacity are most useful, and of the practical steps that might be taken to put it in place.

# THE **U.S.** EXPERIENCE

The experience of the United States with educational evaluation is, in most respects, the longest and best documented among all developed countries, in no small part because of the relatively high levels of financial support that have been made available through federal sources. Indeed, much of current world practice in educational evaluation is based on work originating in the U.S. And while at first glance the resource-rich context of American educational evaluation may appear to have little relevance for developing countries, our review suggests that there are useful insights regarding the purposes and approaches to evaluation that education authorities
Indonesia, Dr. M. Kusumaatmadja, at a meeting in 1992 to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the ASEAN:<sup>20</sup> "Singapore and Malaysia are always telling us to lower tariffs and duties and let their goods into the country. But in return, how about the free movement of labor? We will take your goods if you will take our surplus labor supply. When they hear this and think about all those Indonesians coming to work in their countries, then they say, 'wait a minute, may be it's not such a good idea'." In the past, to lengthen their lists, member countries have gone so far as to include snow ploughs among items to receive preferential tariffs! There are also instances of tariff preferences on zero-tariff goods.

Assuming net benefits from preferential liberalization, in principle, gainers could compensate the losers. But in practice, compensation schemes tend to be distortionary and the AFTA has been wise to stay away from them. Compensation schemes adopted by regional arrangements in Africa proved highly distortionary.<sup>2</sup> 1 In NAFTA, no compensation has been offered by the United States to Mexico which, on conventional criteria, is likely to lose from the arrangement.<sup>22</sup> Only the EC has been successful in affecting large transfers to its poorer partners as a part of the Southern Enlargement. This has been largely due to a very strong commitment on the part of the original members to unify Europe into a single market.

20Financial Times, January 26, 1993.

21For example, see Foroutan (1993).

22The gains Mexico expects from the NAFTA are credibility to its reform and guaranteed access to a large market should the world divide into trading blocs. To the extent that Mexico's tariffs are far higher than those in the United States, the NAFTA is likely to worsen its terms of trade. On top of that, Mexico must adopt the higher environmental standards of the United States and lose competitiveness.

29
2008 (middle-income) tax refunds, and 2001 transfersusing the same sample period and specication as the main results in Table 1 (which also imposes updown symmetry). Despite substantial heterogeneity in estimated multipliers for dierent policies, I fail to reject the restriction that coecients are equal at the 59% (labor income) or 24% (GDP) level, justifying the pooled specication.

Overall, the pooled results seem to be driven by the 2008 low-income rebate, which is consistent with Parker et. al.'s (2013) nding that low-income households had a large and statistically signicant MPC out of the same 2008 transfers.<sup>31</sup> With labor income as a dependent variable, the 2008 low-income rebates have a relative multiplier of 0.36 (signicant at the 1% level)similar to the pooled multiplier from Table 1. The 2001 EGTRRA stimulus payments also have a multiplier of 0.44 but have much wider standard errors (leading to signicance at the 10% level). For GDP growth as a dependent variable, coecient on the low-income rebates is even larger at around 0.64 (signicant at the 1% level), which also drives the pooled results.

The 2008 middle-income tax refund seems to have little eect on growth. Specically, the coecient is close to zero for the labor income specication and negative for GDP specication, but insignicant in both cases. This might be because a larger fraction of this payment was saved, as middle-income households receiving the bulk of this transfer were not nancially constrained. Alternatively, it could be due to the transfer being spent on durable goods produced in other regions, which in turn depends on the transfer size (recall the 2008 mid-income rebate was around $600 per recipient, double the size of the other one-o transfers). Larger transfers can be spent on big ticket durable goods with less local content, and indeed Parker et al. (2013) nd a larger fraction of the 2008 rebate coecient was spent on consumption of durables.<sup>32</sup>

> 31JPS also found that the 2001 transfers were more likely to be spent by low-income households, though the 2001 transfer was non-refundable and so cannot be disaggregated as easily in my sample. This could be because low-income households are more likely to be nancially constrained. However, Misra and Surico (2014) argue that both low- and high-income earners had the highest MPC, with the latter being the wealth hand-to-mouth of Kaplan and Violante (2014).

32Hausman (2016) also reports that a sizable fraction of the 1936 veterans' bonus was spent on durables, including cars, though that payment was much larger as a share of recipient income. Other evidence on the eect of transfer size on the MPC is mixed. Hseih (2003) 27
Figure 2: Effect of Fuel Subsidies on Fishing Hours and Distance Traveled

# (a) Log fishing hours, binding vessels

# (b) Log fishing hours, non-binding vessels

<!-- Start of picture text --> 6.5 6.5<br>6.0 6.0<br>5.5 5.5<br>5.0 5.0<br>4.5 4.5<br>4.0 4.0<br>-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3<br>Normalized gross tonnage distance Normalized gross tonnage distance<br>(c) Log distance traveled, binding vessels (d) Log distance traveled, non-binding vessels<br>9 9<br>8 8<br>7 7<br>6 6<br>5 5<br>-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3<br>Normalized gross tonnage distance Normalized gross tonnage distance<br>log(fishing hours) log(fishing hours)<br>log(km traveled) log(km traveled)<br><!-- End of picture text --> Notes: Points are binned sample means of the dependent variable (raw data) and lines are local linear conditional mean functions. These plots reproduce regressions from Table 3, with the difference in intercepts between the two regression lines in (a) corresponding to the conventional point estimate in Column 1, (b) corresponding to Column 2, and so on.

21
# **_2. Analytical Framework_**

To analyze the data gathered for this project from the case studies and from the survey of river basin organizations, a framework has been developed that identifies a number of political and institutional factors which may be associated with the emergence, sustainability, and success or failure of decentralized approaches to integrated water resource management at the basin scale. These factors and their hypothesized relationships with basin management in a country that has decentralized or is attempting to decentralize water resource management institutions are derived from the institutional analysis literature relating to water or other natural resource management and to decentralized systems (especially Ostrom 1990, 1992; also Agrawal 2000; Alaerts 1999; Blomquist and Schlager 1999; Bromley 1999; Easter and Hearne 1993; Wunsch 1991).

For brevity, we present these political and institutional factors in an outline fashion, gathered under four headings. Our information gathering and analysis focus on the following sets of variables:

- Contextual factors and initial conditions

- Characteristics of the decentralization process

- Characteristics of central government/basin-level relationships and capacities

- The internal configuration of basin-level institutional arrangements.

Variables considered within each set are listed in the appendix . The Brantas basin case is discussed in terms of these categories and variables in Section 7 below.

# **_3. Methodology_**

A case study approach for this project was chosen in order to examine closely the processes of institutional change as well as the current situation of water resources management in the basin. The site visit was facilitated by an expert and active participant in water policy and management affairs in the Brantas basin and within Indonesia and interviews with basin authority officials and other basin stakeholders were held during a week-long visit. A consultant with extensive experience observing the institutional developments within Indonesia and the Brantas River Basin prepared a background paper on the basin prior to the visit. The semi-structured interviews were conducted with a focus on understanding the processes of institutional change and the performance of water management institutions at sub-basin, basin, and national scales, matters that were closely within the knowledge of the interviewees. The semi-structured nature of the research allowed for flexible and consistent investigation of issues as they emerged.

The following analysis of the Brantas basin case is therefore based on a combination of sources—documentary materials on Indonesia and the Brantas basin, the background paper prepared for the visit, and the interviews conducted during the site visit. The findings and conclusions therefore do not represent the point of view of a single individual or organization, but emerge from a composite of data collected and reviewed by the research project team.

7
recovery job gains concentrated among those earning less than twice the minimum wage in 2010. The number of workers earning more than five times the minimum wage declined in both 2009 and 2010.

**Table 3.4: Decomposition of Annual Changes in Employment by** **<u>Job Characteristics</u>**

||year en<br>|dingthe secondqu<br>|arter of...<br>|
|---|---|---|---|
||2008|2009|2010|
|**TOTAL**|**960,040**|**(522,415)**|**1,307,551**|
|**By position**||||
|Salaried (formal)|306,987|(403,852)|180,036|
|Salaried (informal)|494,413|137,598|461,580|
|Employer|7,129|(231,887)|180,802|
|Self-employed|163,245|99,069|295,458|
|Nonpaid worker|(11,734)|(123,343)|189,675|
|**By health insurance**||||
|With health insurance|303,141|(393,090)|166,798|
|Without health insurance|648,725|(123,084)|1,127,673|
|No response|8,174|(6,241)|13,080|
|**By minimum wage**||||
|**category**||||
|Less than two|83,138|983,782|1,102,833|
|Between two and five|569,144|(1,550,261)|596,770|
|More than five|(33,439)|(486,374)|(701,495)|
|No monetary income|(86,976)|(37,442)|148,427|
|Undeclared|428,173|567,880|161,016|

**Source: Own calculations using data from ENOE.**

The discussion above describes employment flows during the crisis and the recovery. What are the characteristics of unemployment flows? Interestingly, in 2008, the year before the crisis, as many women as men lost their job or couldn’t find one. In 2009, however, the relation was four-to-one against men. More than 600,000 men became unemployed, while only 150,000 women did. During the recovery, the roles changed. A meager 7,000 men became unemployed while another 113,000 women lost their jobs (see table 3.5). This indicates that the crisis hit men, but the recovery is relatively creating more female unemployment.

Regarding levels of education, nearly half of the new unemployed during the recession had completed secondary education but not high school (which in Mexico represents between 9 and 12 years of education). This group is not the usual target of payroll cutbacks or job-searchers. The figures indicate, as usual but with larger magnitudes, that unemployment concentrates among 18