term change in these parameters, _weather_ is used for the realized state of the parameters. We use the term _weather anomalies_ to refer to deviations from the mean (over the 30 year period) in rainfall and temperature during the one year period for which household and village data were collected.

To assess the impact of climate change on rural livelihoods, we follow the disaster risk management typology of IPCC AR5 and its three key elements: _weather and climate events, exposure and vulnerability_ (i.e. vulnerability does _not_ include exposure) (Field et al. 2014). Vulnerability then refers to “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected”, while also adding that it “encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt” (Agard et al. 2014).<sup>3</sup> When discussing households’ _adaptive and coping capacity_ (section 5), we follow mainstream literature, and refer to adaptation as _ex ante_ strategies and coping as _ex post_ strategies.<sup>4</sup>

# **2.2 Impacts of climate change**

Climate conditions and change in these (climate change) affect rural livelihoods and vulnerability though multiple channels, as elaborated by Hallegatte et al. (2014), making the final net impact hard to measure. The uncertainties are large with respect to both the degree and nature of climate change, the impacts on natural systems, and the impact on humans. The high uncertainty in itself underscores the importance of a focus on the adaptive and coping capacities of the poor.

The primary economic sectors, including agriculture and forestry, are more sensitive to future climate change because of their direct dependence on the natural environment (Arent et al. 2014). According to IPCC AR5, the impacts of climate change on crop production is evident in several regions, with negative impacts outweighing the positive ones (Porter et al. 2014). The future scenarios vary greatly by crops and regions and have high levels of uncertainty.

A review of Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) points to a likely decrease in the yield of key crops in low-latitude (tropical) areas. “In low-latitude regions, even moderate temperature increases (1 to 2 °C) were found to have negative yield impacts for major cereals, because the climate of many tropical agricultural regions is already quite close to the high-temperature thresholds for suitable production of these cereals” (Rosenzweig et al. 2014: 3269). Warming has, however, benefitted crop yields in high altitude regions, including China (Porter et al. 2014).

Most model scenarios concentrate on climate means. “By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated” (Thornton et al. 2014, 3313). The IPCC AR5 concludes that “climate change will increase crop yield variability in many regions” (Porter et al. 2014, 505). Additional uncertainties relate to pests, water scarcity, tropospheric O3, and soil degradation.

Almost all the crop systems in the PEN sites are rainfed, making them sensitive to changes in rainfall (mean and seasonal pattern). Future precipitation change is highly uncertain and varies considerably between climate models (Scholes et al. 2014). There is some agreement that, for example, the Amazon basin will experience lower rainfall and more frequent droughts (as already has been observed). For Africa, some climate models predict that the southern and northern (Sahel)

> 3 The term “vulnerability” is used broadly in the literature, and represents a “conceptual cluster” for human-environment research, with competing terminologies that is challenging when undertaking and interpreting research (Füssel and Klein 2006).

> 4 Dercon (2002, 145) argues, however, that the distinction is less relevant as coping strategies also require _ex ante_ actions to prepare for the shock. Yet, in the literature coping is now commonly referring to responses after the shock has occurred, i.e., the _ex ante_ strategies (e.g., Heltberg et al. 2015), while adaptation is at times used to encompass both, but with an emphasis on the _ex post_ strategies.

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