rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
enables us to project the impacts of policy reforms geographically. We can literally map projected new locations of cell phone towers, overlay them with population maps, and directly estimate the implications for rural and urban cell phone coverage.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we introduce and discuss previous empirical work on the determinants of cell-phone expansion. Section 3 provides an overview of regulatory reform and cell-phone expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa. Section 4 motivates our modeling exercise and describes our spatial database. In Section 5, we develop alternative estimation strategies to deal with spatial autocorrelation and present our econometric results. Using these results, Section 6 simulates the country-by-country effect of policy reforms that would increase competitiveness to current top-tier levels in Sub-Saharan Africa. Section 7 provides a summary and conclusions.

# **2.  Previous Research on Cell Phone Diffusion in Developing Countries**

# **2.1 General Determinants of Cell Phone Diffusion**

Numerous econometric studies have investigated cross-country cell phone penetration rates, using a variety of independent variables: geographic factors and income (Baliamoune-Lutz, 2003); income alone (Rouvinen, 2004); socio-cultural attributes and internet/telecom use (Kamssu, 2005); and national industry structure, pricing schemes and availability of cell-phone features (Kshetri and Cheung, 2002; Minges, 1999; Yan and Thong, 2003). Some studies have used country typologies to segment cross-country analyses, rather than imposing a single global coverage model (Banerjee and Ros, 2004; Dholakia, Dholakia, Lehrer, and Kshetri, 2004; Dholakia and Kshetri, 2002). Others have investigated the complementarity between cell phone diffusion and the presence of other communications technologies (Hamilton, 2003; Wauschkuhn, 2001). More technology-specific studies have looked at the effect of properly calibrating the connection of 3
# **Table 5**

Dependent Variable: Labor Force Participation Rate

|VARIABLES|(1)<br>OLS-FE|(2)<br>OLS-FE|(3)<br>IV-FE|(4)<br>IV-FE|(5)<br>IV-FE|(6)<br>IV-FE|(7)<br>IV-FE|(8)<br>IV-FE|(9)<br>IV-FE|(10)<br>IV-FE|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|POST|0.04|-0.01|-0.44|-0.31|-0.24|-0.25|0.05|0.29|-0.24|-0.24|
||(0.18)|(0.19)|(3.38)|(3.13)|(0.25)|(0.24)|(3.90)|(3.49)|(0.25)|(0.24)|
|Time|-0.03|0.01|0.12|0.11|0.11***|0.10***|0.09|0.06|0.11***|0.10***|
||(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.26)|(0.23)|(0.03)|(0.04)|(0.30)|(0.26)|(0.03)|(0.04)|
|Timesq|0.01*|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|
||(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.00)|
|WorkingAgePop||0.00||0.00||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|||(0.00)||(0.00)||(0.00)||(0.00)||(0.00)|
|rGDP||-0.00||0.00||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|||(0.00)||(0.00)||(0.00)||(0.00)||(0.00)|
|Observations|1,430|1,333|960|960|960|960|960|960|960|960|
|Number of Countries|73|73|62|62|62|62|62|62|62|62|
|R-squared|0.01|0.03|||||||||
|Partial R-squared|||0.01|0.01|0.41|0.41|0.01|0.01|0.41|0.41|
|Hansen J p-value|||0.39|0.37|0.50|0.43|0.43|0.38|0.56|0.50|
|Kleibergen-Paap F<br>statistic|||8.40|8.12|1945.14|1934.15|2.79|2.71|1904.93|1898.33|

Note: Robust and clustered standard errors at the country level are in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. POST is instrumented with the debt-to-GDP ratio, terms of trade, and five-year change in democracy score in columns (3) and (4). In columns (5) and (6) the instruments also include lagged POST. POST is instrumented with external debt-to-GDP ratio interacted with the change in world interest rates, terms of trade, and five-year change in democracy score in columns (7) and (8). In columns (9) and (10) the instruments also include lagged POST.

31
**Figure 24. Mean annual landed price of fish in Kenyan waters of Lake Victoria by species, 1996-2002:**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 100<br>90<br>80<br>70<br>60<br>50<br>40<br>30<br>20<br>10<br>0<br>1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2001<br>Lates niloticus Other Tilapias Tilapia niloticus Rastrineobola<br>KSh/Kg<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source: Fisheries Department_

**Figure 25. Total landed value of fish in Kenyan waters of Lake Victoria, 1996-2002:**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 9000<br>8000<br>7000<br>6000<br>5000<br>4000<br>3000<br>2000<br>1000<br>0<br>1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002<br>Nominal Real<br>KSh (million)<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Note: Real prices deflated using IMF consumer price index (1995=100). Source: Own calculations_ Arguably, much of the impact of restrictions on exports of Nile perch to the EU were passed down the supply chain to fishers through lower landed prices. Indeed, SMEC (2002) suggest that the returns to fishing are highly sensitive to fluctuations in the landed price; most of the costs borne by boat owners are fixed and independents of either the size or the value of the catch. Further, around 80 percent of the value of the landed catch is paid to boat crews suggesting that 51
necessarily getting the best outcomes. While regions that were more affected by the conflict were reported to have become more conservative, the statistical evidence in this study allows us to question the consistency between what families would want their young women to do (presumably stay at home and raise a family) and what they allow them to do, when the need for survival exceeds the desire to adhere to traditional values.<sup>27</sup> What are the implications of the higher female employment? On the positive side, we should observe greater female empowerment, financial independence and an acquisition of labor market experience. On the negative side, studies suggest that women who work outside their household spend almost the same amount of hours in non-market activities such as preparing food, fetching water, taking care of children and elderly<sup>28</sup> as women who do not hold outside employment. Both, market and nonmarket employment contribute to exhaustion and lower the amount of time spent with children.

The results have important policy implications. The increased workforce participation among younger women signals that they are likely to positively respond to new employment opportunities if the government were to invest in industrial development policies. The creation of new local jobs would be particularly welcomed by women<sup>29</sup> as they are on average significantly less geographically mobile than men due to societal constraints and childcare duties. Further research that employs a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques would help to understand better the benefits and disadvantages of an increase in female employment in Tajikistan and the fruitful directions for regional development policies.

> 27 I would like to thank Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh for this observation.

> 28 The 2007 TLSS data suggest that on average women in Tajikistan spent about 60 hours per week on non-market activities. 29 Olimova and Bosc (2003) mention that until very recently there were very few young unmarried women travelling outside of Tajikistan in search of employment. Living abroad without close supervision by neighbors and relatives damages may damage reputation of such women and make them unmarriageable.

32
in countries with a large number of poorly capitalized banks are more likely to oppose high levels of deposit insurance coverage because the risk of bank failure and bailout increases in such environments. We obtain data on bank size and bank capital from BANKSCOPE, a commercial database of financial statements of international banks maintained by Bureau Van Dijk. We use data for the year 1999.

As an alternative measure of bank risk, we use NPLAST, which is defined as the ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans. Data on the share of nonperforming loans come from Barth, Caprio and Levine (2004). The data refer to year-end 1999. Public interest theory would imply that politicians in countries with a higher share of nonperforming loans are more likely to oppose a broad coverage of deposit insurance because the risk of bank failure and bailout increases in such environments. On the other hand, banks with a large portfolio of bad assets will be a powerful lobby for extensive deposit insurance. Private interest theory, therefore, predicts that countries with a larger share of nonperforming loans are more likely to have broad coverage of deposit insurance.

Third, we control for the level of education in the country. We expect that education has a negative impact on the level of deposit insurance coverage because more educated citizens are more likely to understand that limiting deposit insurance reduces moral hazard. However, the effect could be ambiguous because the level of education may be correlated with the degree to which people use the banking system and, therefore, care about their claims. Our proxy for the level of education is SCHOOL, which is the gross secondary school enrollment in the country. In a robustness test, we use the literacy rate of the adult population in the country as a proxy for the education level in the 12
October 2015 Impact evaluation design workshop for original CWLP program November— December 2016 Workers recruitment & randomization January —April 2016 Rollout of CWLP, cash for work activities = ——{ April 2016 - January 2017 Endline survey CWLP evaluation (baseline cash grants evaluation) ‘Sacrermber 2018 —ianuaw 2019 Rollout of the cash grants, Hannes, and gender dialogues interventions September 2018 Participants tracking, trainings, gender dialogues interventions October 2018 First cash grant delivered to participants

# January 2019

Last cash grant delivered to participants Wooo raranacecsccsaaaccoaaaacs---------2 years later (post intervention) December 2020 — April 2021 Follow-up survey data collection and qualitative research
17 products. This is reflected in much smaller TRI for high-income countries in the third as compared with the first row for high-income countries in Table 3.

The TRI correctly aggregates the restrictiveness of sub-sector policies that are masked in aggregate NRA and CTE measures, because they offset one another. Using the example of Africa in 1985-89 when the NRA was closest to zero, the TRI peaks at this time in a way that correctly identifies the trade-reducing effect of positive protection to the import-competing sub-sector and disprotection to the exportables sub-sector.

Table 4 reports the WRIs, again for agricultural import-competing products, exportables, and all covered tradable products from 1960 to 2007 for the five main studied regions and for the world as a whole. The WRI results for covered products show a similar pattern over the five regions: there is a constant or increasing tendency for policies to reduce welfare from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, but thereafter the opposite occurs in almost all regions. This pattern is generated by different policy regimes in different regions. In highincome countries, agriculture was assisted throughout the period, although it peaked in the 1980s (at around 60 percent) and thereafter fell. By contrast, in developing countries, agriculture was disprotected until the mid-1980s, and only thereafter did taxation of developing country farmers decline to the point that they received positive assistance by the turn of the century. The first point to note about the WRI, then, is that it has the desirable property of correctly identifying the welfare consequences that result from both positive and negative assistance regimes for the sector.

A second point to note is that the WRI provides a better indicator of the welfare cost of distortions than the average level of assistance or taxation in the Agricultural Distortions database (NRA and CTE in Tables 1 and 2). Although the latter are a significant contribution in their own right, they can be misleading as a pair of indicators of the extent of the welfare
such a reduction we rely on air quality modeling performed as part of the Urban Air Quality Management Strategy for Mumbai (World Bank 1997) conducted in the mid 1990s. The impact of a 650 ton reduction in PM10 on mortality, conservatively calculated, is to reduce deaths in Mumbai by about 100 per year. This is based on daily time series studies relating PM10 to mortality that assume a 10 μg/m<sup>3</sup> reduction in PM10 will reduce daily deaths by about 1%. This is an extremely conservative estimate of the health benefits of reducing PM10, as it ignores the long-term impacts of particulate exposure on mortality, as well as the impacts of PM reductions on morbidity.

A rough calculation of the cost per life saved, based on the above estimate, suggests a cost of 1,970,000 Rs. ( = 58,095*3,391/100), or approximately $46,000 USD. This is much lower than estimates of the values of a statistical life for India (Simon et al. 1999, Shanmugam 1997), which range from 6 to 15 million Rs. However, our upper bound estimate of the cost per life saved is greater than the estimate of foregone earnings in Mumbai (250,000 Rs.) estimated by URBAIR (World Bank 1997). This suggests that converting diesel buses to CNG may indeed pass the benefit-cost test.

# **V. Conclusions**

This paper examined the impacts of measures to reduce emissions from buses, cars and two-wheelers in Mumbai, India. We have considered three possible policies: conversion of diesel buses to CNG, an increase in the price of gasoline and a tax on vehicle ownership.

Our results suggest that the most effective policy to reduce emissions from passenger vehicles—in terms of the total number of tons of PM10 reduced—is to convert 20
**Table 6. Offshore Services Industry Indicators in India, 2004-2009**

||**2004**|**2005**|**2006**|**2007**|**2008**|**2009 E**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Revenues in Offshore Services**<br>**Industry: India **(US$ billions)|12.9|17.7|23.6|31.3|40.4|47|
|**Growth Rate Offshore Services**<br>**Industry**||37%|33%|33%|29%|16%|
|**Indian GDP**(current US$ billions)|700.9|810.2|914.9|1,176.9|1,217.5|1,182.2|
|**Offshore Services share of**<br>**Indian GDP**|1.8%|2.2%|2.6%|2.7%|3.3%|4.0%|
|**Offshore Services Employment**|830,000|1,058,000|1,293,000|1,621,000|2,010,000|2,236,614|
|**Growth Rate Offshore Services**<br>**Employment**||27%|22%|25%|24%|11%|

Source: CGGC, Duke University based on data from NASSCOM and the World Bank. E: NASSCOM Estimates There was an abrupt slowdown in the offshore service industry’s growth rates from around 30% during 2004-2008 to 16% in 2009. This slowdown has also affected the industry’s employment. While aggregate employment reached 2.3 million in 2009 (NASSCOM, 2009), employment growth rates slowed from an average of 25% between 2004 and 2008 to 11% in 2009 (NASSCOM, 2009). One of the groups in India most affected by this economic crisis is the new IT graduates. More than half of the 300,000 graduates were left unemployed in 2009. The oversupply of workers has also impacted the entry-level salaries, which have declined up to 30% (Current IT Market, 2009b).

During the crisis, Tata Consultancy Services, the largest Indian offshore services provider, announced 1,300 layoffs, approximately 1% of its total workforce. Additionally the company has increased working hours to 45 hours per week from 40 hours (Finance Trading Times, 2009). Despite these effects, the company is already showing recovery signs and is planning new hiring in 2010 (Current IT Market, 2009b). This is also true for other Indian companies such as Wipro and Cognizant that have begun offering promotions and salary increases. Infosys is also experiencing a recovery, but its policy is to wait for greater stability before offering promotions and salary increases (Indiatimes Infotech, 2009).

The Indian industry began to show signs of recovery in the last months of 2009. A recent report from the offshore services Indian association – NASSCOM -- explains that the first half of 2009 was extremely difficult, with business paralysis and the clients requesting immediate cost reductions. In the second half on the year, clients appeared to be in a different position. They were requesting longer-term cost reduction initiatives moving forward and demonstrating a willingness to analyze new projects and initiatives. The Indian offshore services industry is expecting this slowdown to end during 2010 (NASSCOM Newsline, 2009).

After this economic downturn, the industry will likely adjust to the new business environment. The most important changes in India’s offshore services as a result of the crisis (Nair, 2010; NASSCOM Newsline, 2009) can be summarized as:

- Greater services specialization, with companies covering niches needs

21
<!-- Start of picture text --> =<br>a2<br>a=]a<br>L<br>£oO =<br>oe<br>Cca<br>28<br>Oo<br>0 10 20 30 40 50<br>x<br>—— 1998 ——— 2013<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> =<br>a7<br>a=]a<br>Ly<br>£eoO 2<br>Cca<br>3-<br>o<br>0 20 40 60 80 100<br>x<br>—— 1998 ——— 2013<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> XN<br>aw<br>ar<br>a=]ae<br>o=<br>Ss£n<br>oO<br>2<br>gsS<br>oO<br>0 10 20 30 40 50<br>x<br>—— 1995 —— 2015<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> a<br>a N<br>a<br>a=]a<br>a0<br>=sar:<br>oO<br>a<br>ZuoS<br>=<br>oO<br>0 10 20 30 40 50<br>x<br>—— 1995 + ——— 2015<br><!-- End of picture text -->
TANZANIA’S INFRASTRUCTURE: A CONTINENTAL PERSPECTIVE

**Box 1. Kenya’s success with reducing hidden costs of power utility**

In the early 2000s, KPLC had substantial hidden costs in underpricing, collection losses, and distribution losses; these absorbed 1.4 percent of GDP. In the run up to a management contract, revenue collection improved from 81 percent in 2004 to 100 percent in 2006. Distribution losses also began to fall, though more gradually, a reflection of the greater difficulty in resolving them. Power pricing reforms allowed tariffs to rise in line with escalating costs, from $0.07 in 2000 to $0.15 in 2006 and $0.20 in 2008. As a result of those measures, the hidden costs of the power sector fell to 0.4 percent of GDP in 2006 and were eliminated by 2008 (see figure). This outcome put the sector on a firmer financial footing and has saved the economy more than 1 percent of GDP.

<!-- Start of picture text --> 100 2.0<br>80<br>1.5<br>60<br>1.0<br>40<br>0.5<br>20<br>0 0.0<br>2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2008<br>underpricing undercollection<br>distribution losses total as % GDP<br>% of revenues<br><!-- End of picture text --> _<u>Source</u>_ : Interviews with World Bank staff from the Africa Energy Department 2008.

# Ports

## **Achievements**

Dar es Salaam is a major regional port, handling nearly 5 million tons of cargo in 2009. Alongside Mombasa, it is one of the key transshipment centers for the East Africa region (table 4).

13
negative relation between declared trust and actual trust appears most plausibly explained as a post-experiment response to betrayal aversion.

We found gender effects. In within-group behavior, female initiators behaved in the manner of their male counterparts in transferring money but female receivers returned less to initiators. In mixed-group behavior, women as initiators were less trusting and sent less but exhibited the same level of reciprocity as males when responding as receivers. Women therefore appeared to feel that they could return less to members of their own group and feel expressively good about themselves (since identity and expressive utility are the reasons for returning money), while, in interactions with participants from outside their group, women were less trusting or more wary and risk-averse (or more averse to betrayal) but reciprocated in the same way as males.<sup>31</sup> The results for Montenegro are consistent with conclusions from other studies that university students are in general less trusting than people with experience in business. The results for Montenegro are, however, not consistent with results found in other studies that students are less trustworthy.

Table 6, which reproduces comparative cross-country results from Johnson and Mislin (2011), shows that the participants from the state university in Montenegro displayed trust and trustworthiness consistent with usual outcomes in high-income societies – and did so even though income incomparability may arise because of the high monetary sums in our experiments when normalized by lower Montenegrin per capita income. The participants from the Montenegrin private university showed the highest level of trust reported in cross-country experiments. They could apparently, based on their broader experiences, intuit or predict the reciprocating behavior of participants independent of group identity.<sup>32</sup>

> 31 Women are generally more risk-averse than men in experiments. On gender differences in behavior in experiments, see Eckel and Grossman (2008) and Croson and Gneezy (2009).

> 32 In some cases in table 6, the gains from trust are not shared. A proportion of one-third returned to the initiator leaves the receiver with all the gains from trust.  There is little evidence of the

44
fiscal measures. In 2009, the fiscal deficit was large, accounting for over 8 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). But Cambodia progressively reduced its fiscal deficit through increased revenue collection and prudent spending. Since 2015, Cambodia was able to substantially reduce the fiscal deficit and maintain it at less than 3 percent of the GDP (Figure 1). The deficit is often financed by foreign aid grants or development partner financing of investment projects. In 2019, government savings rose to 20 percent of GDP (or KHR 22.2 trillion) after several years of accumulation. The overall fiscal deficit is estimated to have been limited at -0.7 percent of GDP in 2019.

Figure 1: Domestic revenue and expenditure in Cambodia (% of GDP), 2009-2019 <!-- Start of picture text --> 30<br>20<br>10<br>0<br>2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019<br>Direct taxes Indirect taxes (incl. trade taxes)<br>Other revenue Domestic revenue<br>Expenditure<br>Source: MEF.<br>Percent<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: Other revenue includes non-tax revenue, capital revenue and provincial revenue.

Revenue collection increased because of improvements in tax administration and a broadening tax base. Between 2009 and 2019, tax revenue collection of the central government increased from 9.7 percent of GDP to 20 percent. Various tax administration reforms introduced by the General Department of Taxation (GDT) and the General Department of Customs and Excises (GDCE) supported this increase. Since 2008, the GDCE rolled out the Automated System for Custom Data (ASYCUDA) and enhanced anti-smuggling measures. In 2014, the GDT introduced a shift toward a real regime system of taxation for business profits (mainly of large, incorporated and/or commercial enterprises), improved taxpayer registration and services, and improved tax auditing capacity leading to better compliance (World Bank, 2019). These reforms were implemented in the context of the Revenue Mobilization Strategy for 2014-18. These efforts, coupled with fast economic growth, enabled gains to be realized in most sources of revenues, particularly from value-added tax, excise duties, and corporate tax. In 2019, tax revenues for Cambodia were higher than most ASEAN countries (Figure 2).

4