# **S15.3 Varying Baseline Nighttime Light Groups**

In this section, we explore heterogeneity of impacts of changes in market access across two groups of baseline nighttime lights—Woredas with no positive nighttime lights at baseline, and Woredas with some positive nighttime lights at baseline. Tables S23 and S24 show results using Kebeles and Woredas respectively. Results are consistent to models that use four groups of nighttime lights; road upgrades are associated with growth in nighttime lights and urban land, particularly in areas with positive baseline nighttime lights. As with results using four groups of baseline nighttime lights, coefficients on models explaining urban land tend to be more significant when using Woredas as the unit of analysis.

**Table S23:** Association of changes in market access on changes in outcome variables using a long difference, OLS results [Kebeles]

||NT|L|Urb|an|Crop|land|NT|L|Urba|n|Crop|land|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|(9)|(10)|(11)|(12)|
|MA|_−_0_._04<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._04<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._003<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._003<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._003|0_._003|_−_0_._04<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._03<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗_</sup>|0_._002|0_._002|
||(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._002)|(0_._002)|(0_._002)|(0_._002)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._003)|(0_._003)|(0_._003)|(0_._003)|
|MA_×NTL_96 Lit||0_._23<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>||_−_0_._005<br>||0_._002<br>||0_._23<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>||0_._01<br>||0_._01<br>|
|||(0_._04)||(0_._01)||(0_._01)||(0_._04)||(0_._02)||(0_._01)|
|MA, 1996|0_._03<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._03<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._002<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._002<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._07<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._06<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._01<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._004<sup>_∗_</sup>|_−_0_._004<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|
||(0_._003)|(0_._003)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._01)|(0_._01)|(0_._001)|(0_._001)|(0_._002)|(0_._002)|
|Log mean light, 1996|_−_0_._01<br>|_−_0_._08<br>|0_._45<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>|0_._45<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup><br>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup><br>|0_._02<br>|_−_0_._05<br>|0_._46<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>|0_._46<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗_</sup><br>|_−_0_._05<sup>_∗∗_</sup><br>|
||(0_._05)|(0_._05)|(0_._12)|(0_._12)|(0_._02)|(0_._02)|(0_._05)|(0_._05)|(0_._12)|(0_._12)|(0_._02)|(0_._02)|
|Pre-trend: log mean light|0_._06<br>|0_._04<br>|0_._15<br>|0_._15<br>|_−_0_._001<br>|_−_0_._001<br>|0_._08<br>|0_._06<br>|0_._16<br>|0_._16<br>|_−_0_._002<br>|_−_0_._003<br>|
||(0_._08)|(0_._07)|(0_._15)|(0_._15)|(0_._03)|(0_._03)|(0_._08)|(0_._07)|(0_._15)|(0_._15)|(0_._03)|(0_._03)|
|Pre-trend: log N urban pixels|0_._34<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._32<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._56<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._56<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._04|_−_0_._04|0_._35<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._33<sup>_∗∗_</sup>|0_._57<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|0_._57<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup>|_−_0_._04|_−_0_._04|
||(0_._13)|(0_._13)|(0_._22)|(0_._22)|(0_._12)|(0_._12)|(0_._14)|(0_._13)|(0_._21)|(0_._22)|(0_._12)|(0_._12)|
|Model|_OLS_|_OLS_|_OLS_|_OLS_|_OLS_|_OLS_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|_IV_|
|Observations<br>|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|15,714|
|Adjusted R<sup>2</sup>|0.18|0.19|0.22|0.22|0.14|0.14|0.17|0.18|0.22|0.22|0.14|0.14|

The unit of analysis is Kebeles. Standard errors are clustered on Woredas and all models include Zone fixed effects. MA is the logged difference of MA from 1996 to 2016. IV indicates that MA is instrumented with a 50km MA Doughnut variable; that is, in calculating market access, Kebeles within 50km are excluded. _NTL_ 96 Lit indicates that the Woredas had some positive nighttime lights at baseline. The excluded group is Woredas where the maximum value of nighttime lights at baseline was 0. NTL is the average nighttime lights within Kebeles, Urban is the total urban area within Kebeles, and Cropland is the total cropland area within Kebeles; we use the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation on all outcome variables, which has a similar interpretation as logs.<sup>_∗_</sup> p _<_ 0.1;<sup>_∗∗_</sup> p _<_ 0.05;<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup> p _<_ 0 _._ 01 S34