years to come.<sup>2</sup> Productivity in the sector could grow through shifts in technologies and in the composition of output without the net outflow of resources to other sectors usually seen in the development process. Sufficient land is still available in many parts of rural Africa for expansion of farming, and about half of the growth observed in the 2000s was at the extensive margin.<sup>3</sup> The possibility that agriculture’s share in African GDP could grow is a reminder that the circumstances for agricultural development in Africa now (i.e., high global food prices, few nontradable manufactured goods, potential growth in both area and yield, and shifts in comparative advantage in the developed world in favor of technology-intensive services and products) are quite different from those that shaped traditional expectations about development and structural change (Losch, Fréguin-Gresh and White 2012). Furthermore, the cost of withdrawing labor from agriculture seems to have increased over time around the world. Timmer and Akkus (2008) show that over the past fifty years, the point at which wages in agriculture converge with those earned in non-agricultural jobs has been reached at later and later stages in the economic transformation of successful growth performers, perhaps suggesting that globally, industry is becoming less and less able to absorb labor. Thus, although many young people born on farms will continue to leave for other occupations, agriculture is and will remain the sphere of employment for more young people in Africa now than has been the case elsewhere and earlier.

# **4. A Sector of Opportunity**

The opportunity that farming now represents in Africa can be seen clearly in the subcontinent’s trade accounts. The value of food markets is projected to increase from US $313 billion in 2010 to US $1,000 billion in 2030 (World Bank 2013). Food imports surged ahead of exports as recently as 2003, and have continued to climb. The growth in imports has been variously attributed to failure of agricultural production to keep up with population growth (which is wrong—per capita production over this period has risen), climate change, and other supply side factors. Of course supply matters, but more fundamentally, high income growth, population growth, and urbanization are increasing demand for imported food faster than the supply of domestically produced substitutes is growing. Moreover, much of the urbanization is _in situ_ , as rural settlements become denser and pass the mark that reclassifies them as towns. A band of settlements of 10,000 or more inhabitants now stretches from Djibouti to Dakar, with few gaps in between. Another rings Lake Victoria, and another marks the Kinshasa/Brazzaville corridor. Denser patterns of settlement reduce marketing costs for agricultural producers in the hinterlands, and raise the returns to investments in primary processing of raw products. Growth in demand is not limited to domestic markets. Global food prices are higher than has been observed for several decades, and, barring significant policy shifts in biofuels, are expected to remain high for at least the medium term.

> 2 Average farm yields of maize in Africa are estimated to be 20 percent of the estimated potential yield. For oil palm and soybeans, the rate is 32 percent, and 54 percent for sugarcane (Deininger and Byerlee 2011). In other regions, the gap between actual and estimated yields for these crops seldom exceeds 40 percent. 3 FAO STAT 2013.

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