# **4. Growth Scenarios Post Conflict**

This section discusses potential growth scenarios for Syria in the aftermath of war, exploring how long it would take for Syria to reach its pre‐conflict level of development and the number of “lost decades” under various assumptions for the growth drivers.

**<u>Table 5: Key Factors in the Post‐Conflict Scenarios for Growth Drivers</u>**

|**Broad Case**|<br>**Factor**|<br>**Baseline(Moderate)**|<br>**High (Optimistic)**|<br>**Low(Pessimistic)**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Voluntary<br>mobility OR<br>Forced<br>repatriation|Security|Partial political<br>settlement with<br>strong guarantees for<br>micro‐security and<br>property rights.|Robust political<br>settlement.|Political settlement<br>largely reflects de‐<br>facto balance of<br>power, with limited<br>guarantees for micro‐<br>security and property<br>rights.|
||Reconstruction<br>program|A substantial<br>reconstruction<br>program of USD 140<br>billion (average of the<br>high and low<br>scenarios), spread<br>evenly over a 20‐year<br>period.|A large<br>reconstruction<br>program amounting<br>to USD 250 billion to<br>meet UN‐estimated<br>reconstruction bill,<br>spread evenly over a<br>20‐year period.|Limited<br>reconstruction<br>program of USD 30<br>billion, largely relying<br>on China, Iran and<br>Russia, and spread<br>evenly over a 10‐year<br>period.|
|Voluntary<br>mobility|Refugee<br>returns|Of total refugees in<br>neighboring countries,<br>43 percent return rate<br>based on the ratio of<br>reconstruction funds<br>in the first 10 years<br>(moderate versus high<br>scenario).|76 percent rate of<br>refugee returns from<br>neighboring<br>countries, based on<br>the UNHCR (2018)<br>survey of refugees<br>intending to return<br>to Syria one day.|Of total refugees in<br>neighboring<br>countries, 18 percent<br>return rate based on<br>the ratio of<br>reconstruction funds<br>in the first 10 years<br>(low versus high<br>scenario).|
|Forced<br>repatriation|Refugee<br>returns|100 percent return|rate, of refugees in neig|hboring countries.|

<u>Notes: Under the voluntary mobility case, refugee returns follow the same time pattern across the three scenarios,</u> rising to peak around 2023‐2024, and gradually moderating thereafter. World Bank (2019) finds that refugee mobilization tends to be lower, the lower are security and infrastructure services.

Experiences of other countries in the Middle‐East suggest that longer‐lasting conflicts would entail a longer recovery period. Sab (2014) notes that it took Lebanon 20 years to reach its pre‐war GDP level (after the Lebanon Civil War from April 13, 1975 – October 13, 1990), Kuwait, seven years (Gulf War from August 2, 1990 – February 28, 1991), and Iraq, one year only (2003 Invasion of Iraq from March 19‐May 1, 2003).<sup>39</sup> Lebanon lost 70 percent of its GDP level while Kuwait 55 percent and Iraq 35 percent during their respective wars. Gobat and Kostial (2016) note that under the hypothetical assumption of reconstruction starting in 2018 and the Syrian economy growing at about 4.5 percent, it would take the country about 20 years to reach its pre‐conflict real GDP level. ESCWA

> 39 Sab (2014) highlights that while the 2002 invasion of Iraq did not last long, Iraq had experienced low‐grade civil war for much of the 2000s until the summer/fall of 2009.

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