rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
who among all of these migrants are temporary migrants, however, is not always straightforward, especially if the survey is conducted in high-income OECD countries where permanent migration is more common. One way to identify temporary migrants is through questions on intentions to stay in the host country and for how long, which are collected by only a few surveys in destination countries (Dustmann and G ̈orlach 2016). Those include the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) in Germany or the “Trajectoires et origines” survey in France released by Ined-Insee in 2009. In some host countries, such as the Gulf States or Southeast Asia, the identification of temporary migrants is easier since, by definition, all migrants are only allowed to stay temporarily.

Survey data capturing migrants in destination countries are either longitudinal or crosssectional. Longitudinal surveys focusing on temporary migrants are very scarce. The most comprehensive destination country survey that follows migrants over time is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). The GSOEP has a panel structure from 1984 and dedicates particular effort to tracking movements in and out of Germany, and to retain individuals when they return from temporary absences abroad (Constant and Massey 2002; Kırdar 2009). It also collects information on intended duration of stay in the country, which allows to identify temporary migrants, or at least migrants who _intend_ to stay temporarily. Given these features, this data set has been extensively used by studies on temporary migration including Dustmann (2003), Bellemare (2007), Van Baalen and M ̈uller (2008), Kırdar (2009), Dustmann and G ̈orlach (2016), and Adda, Dustmann, and G ̈orlach (forthcoming). One important limitation of the GSOEP for the study of temporary migration, however, is that it does not collect information on labor market outcomes outside Germany, in particular after return to the home country.

Other available surveys in destination countries capturing temporary migrants are crosssectional. As for the GSOEP, the survey “Trajectoires et origines” in France released by Ined-Insee in 2009 includes questions on intentions to stay in the host country, and was used to analyze the relationship between remigration intentions and immigrants’ behaviors in the host and origin countries (Chab ́e-Ferret, Machado, and Wahba 2018). In addition to migration-dedicated surveys, some of the literature has also been using more traditional, nationally-representative data in destination countries to analyze temporary migrations. In the US, the American Community Survey (ACS), was for example used to reconstruct episodes of transit migration of current migrants (Artuc and Ozden 2018). The data includes information on the birth country of migrants as well as the country where they lived prior to moving to the US, which allows to identify transit migration. One advantage of destination country data is that they capture temporary migrants who moved overseas with their entire families, as opposed to surveys in origin countries. Survey data in host countries, however, 16
labor market outcomes.<sup>11</sup> For Colombia, recent studies estimate program value added to learning outcomes for bachelor’s programs, taking advantage of the availability of data on high school and college exit exams in addition to a rich set of student background characteristics.<sup>12</sup> Other studies estimate institution-level value added or the effects of attending selective institutions on learning and labor market outcomes.<sup>13</sup> Our paper differs from this literature because we estimate value added for SCPs (as opposed to bachelor degrees) while considering a broad range of outcomes.<sup>14</sup> Second, we relate to the literature on community colleges (CCs) in the US. Despite the importance of these institutions and a relatively rich literature studying them, little research exists on quality differences among institutions,<sup>15</sup> although a greater number of studies have explored the labor market returns to certificates and associate’s degrees from CCs. In recent years, researchers have gained access to panel datasets connecting degree attainment with earnings in multiple states in the US.<sup>16</sup> These studies generally find that CC students who obtained a certificate or associate degree benefited more in terms of labor market outcomes compared to those who did not enroll in a CC. While this literature quantifies the gains from CC attendance relative to not attending, our paper compares the relative gains from different SCPs and investigates why they across programs. Due to data limitations, and unlike the aforementioned studies, our paper compares programs among themselves (and not to a high school diploma). Since our results clearly

> 11 See Cunha and Miller (2014), Hoxby (2015, 2019), Carrel and Kurlaender (2019), Mabel et al. (2019), Riehl et al. (2020), and Andrews et al. (2022).

> 12 See Melguizo and Wainer (2015), Shavelson et al. (2016), Melguizo et al. (2016), and Cellini and Grueso (2021).

> 13 See Saavedra (2009), Barrera-Osorio and Bayona-Rodriguez (2019), and Riehl et al. (2020).

> 14 Data challenges have limited the number of studies on SCPs’ value added. Garcia and Ospina (2019), however, are an exception because they use scores from the SABER T&T, a new college exit exam for students who complete technical and technological degrees, in order to estimate contributions to learning outcomes.

> 15 An exception is Carrel and Kurlander (2020), who use data from the state of California to study institutions’ effectiveness preparing students to transfer from two- to four-year institutions.

> 16 See Bahr (2016), Liu et al. (2015), Dadgar and Trimble (2015), Dynarski et al. (2016), Bettinger and Soliz (2016), Jepsen et al. (2014), Minaya and Scott-Clayton (2022), Stevens et al. (2015), and Xu and Trimble (2016).

7
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<!-- Start of picture text --> Prmu Global Reinsurance Rates<br>Rate u/o 1989-1998 Price Index<br>ROL<br>4.5<br>4.0<br>3.5<br>3.0)<br>2.5<br>2.0<br>1.5<br>1.0<br>89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Guy Carpenter The above is particularly relevant since direct insurance rates for property in ESC countries are greatly influenced by the cost of reinsurance. In general, over 80 percent of gross written premiums and insurance risks for property, are ceded to reinsurers.
have the highest transaction efficiency (lowest costs) with a score of three. The countries with the lowest score on transaction efficiency include Chile, China, Colombia and Indonesia. Similarly, we also include a settlement proficiency variable ( _Settlement Proficiency)_ from the same report for CALPERS. This variable captures whether or not a country’s trading and settlement is automated and measures the success of the market in settling transactions in a timely manner. A score of one to three is assigned for each country - a higher score indicates a more efficient settlement system. Most emerging market countries with large market capitalization have a score of three. The exceptions are India, Russia and South Africa, which have 3- to 5-day settlement windows.

We also include _FX Volatility_ , to control for the likelihood of exchange rate depreciation. ADR share prices carry the same foreign currency risk as underlying shares and most ADRs trade in line with the underlying security. The spread is generally very small, reflecting the cost of foreign exchange conversion and other execution costs. If the currency of the underlying stock rises against the US dollar, the ADR price is expected to rise (and vice versa). Dividends are converted and paid in US dollars.

Our results are reported in Table 6: Panel A reports the results of an OLS regression while Panel B reports the estimates of the Tobit regression. Again the results are broadly similar across the two specifications. In the first model we only include _Market Cap/GDP_ and _Turnover Country_ in addition to _GDP per Capita_ . The model is estimated for all ADRs and for only listed ADRs. The coefficient on _Market Cap/GDP_ is significant and negative for the entire sample and for the sub sample of listed firms it is negative but not significant _._ The results suggest that fund mangers allocate a relatively smaller proportion of their investment in particular firm’s ADR security if that firm’s domestic market is well developed (as 26
7 insolvent as their reported capital level is below two percent of risk adjusted capital or total banking system NPLs exceed 25 percent. In four (Argentina, Chile, Hungary, Poland and Thailand) out of the sample of seven countries, individual banks were severely undercapitalized and mostly insolvent with an adjusted capital adequacy ratio of minus two percent.

To illustrate this rating with a few numbers, the Chilean banking system had a negative net worth of 12.2 billion pesos in the first year of the crisis while it faced losses of 70 billion pesos by the second year of the crisis (Sheng 1996c). The shortfall in the capital of the seven banks in Poland participating in the restructuring program accounted for 18 percent of their assets at the start of the crisis (World Bank 1993). The collapse of the real estate and stock mnarkets in Thailand rendered substantial shares of bank portfolios as nonperforming and as banking problems reached crisis proportions, the capital positions of banks weakened. According to 1998 market estimates of capital shortfalls for Thai banks, the latter would need US$30 billion to weather the crisis (World Bank 2000b). Japan's banks appeared to be better offin the mid-1990s with most of them reporting a risk adjusted capital adequacy ratio of between minus two to plus two percent (Kanaya and Woo 2000). But their capital positions did not improve significantly through the remainder of the decade (International Monetary Fund 1998). Out of the seven crises, countries Norway's banks appeared to be the best positioned in the initial phase of the crisis to deal with corporate distress. Their risk adjusted capital adequacy ratios were between two and eight percent.

Figure 2. Banks' Capital Positions Prior to Recapitalization <!-- Start of picture text --> 3.5-<br>3 -~~~~~~~~~j<br>0<br>2E 5 - -<br>0<br>06<br>B~.1.5<br>r- g 0. 1- 1-E~ -- X _ t .5 -<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Notes:_ We group countries into four categories with regards to the capital adequacy position of their banks and or the level of non-performing loans in the banking sector. A four indicates that all banks in the system are well capitalized and that the adjusted capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the banks exceeds eight percent or the minimum legal requirement whatever is higher and non-performing loams (NPLs) of the banking system are below 5 percent. A three indicates that banks are slightly undercapitalized with their CAR ranging between two and eight percent and overall banking sector NPLs are between 6 and 10 percent. A two indicates that banks are significantly undercapitalized with their CAR ranging from minus two to plus two percent and banking sector NPLs are between 10 and 25 percenL A one denotes a system in which banks are severely undercapitalized and insolvent with a CAR below minus two percent and NPLs exceed 25 percent _Sources:_ Balino 1991; Bbrish, Ding and Noel 1996; Claessens 2001; Claessens, Djankov and Klingebiel 1999b; Kanaya and Woo 2000; Sheng 1996c; World Bank 1993; World Bank 2000b.
**Table 4 (con’t):  Community radio access and household acquisition of bed nets**

|Dependent<br>variable:|Total bed<br>nets|Free gov‘t.<br>bed nets|Paid gov‘t.<br>bed nets|Total pre-<br>treated bed<br>nets|Free gov‘t.<br>pre-treated|Paid gov‘t.<br>pre-treated|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Number of children|-0.0217|0.0220|0.00266|0.00288|0.0290|0.0136|
|listed aged 0 – 5|(0.49)|(0.37)|(0.88)|(0.93)|(0.24)|(0.43)|
|Respondent single|-0.147|-0.152|0.112|-0.135|-0.172|0.0947|
||(0.11)|(0.13)|(0.03)|(0.20)|(0.09)|(0.05)|
|Respondent|0.112|0.0979|0.0639|0.0420|0.0456|0.0612|
|<br>polygamous|(0.12)|(0.09)|(0.10)|(0.57)|(0.46)|(0.09)|
|Respondent Catholic|0.101|0.0184|0.103|0.247|0.103|0.120|
||(0.15)|(0.74)|(0.03)|(0.00)|(0.11)|(0.01)|
|Income is between|0.0518|-0.0159|0.0942|0.0337|0.0132|0.0571|
|27.5K and 44K|(0.32)|(0.72)|(0.00)|(0.53)|(0.77)|(0.02)|
|Income is over 44K|0.248|0.0457|0.144|0.281|0.124|0.0976|
||(0.00)|(0.42)|(0.00)|(0.00)|(0.04)|(0.00)|
|Wall - Brick/Semi-|0.161|0.122|-0.0191|0.114|0.115|-0.0110|
|rigid|(0.01)|(0.05)|(0.66)|(0.08)|(0.07)|(0.79)|
|Floor – Cement|0.131|0.0179|0.0648|0.141|0.0317|0.0936|
||(0.02)|(0.73)|(0.08)|(0.01)|(0.56)|(0.01)|
|Rooms - Five or more|0.363|0.142|0.0536|0.112|0.0588|0.0438|
||(0.00)|(0.03)|(0.20)|(0.13)|(0.41)|(0.22)|
|Owns a TV|0.479|0.152|0.0742|0.370|0.137|0.0370|
||(0.00)|(0.10)|(0.27)|(0.00)|(0.13)|(0.56)|
|Owns a mobile|0.189|0.0614|0.0346|0.220|0.0774|0.0288|
||(0.00)|(0.21)|(0.33)|(0.00)|(0.15)|(0.39)|
|Village chief with|0.200|0.153|0.0872|0.160|0.128|0.0715|
|secondary education|(0.01)|(0.21)|(0.09)|(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.12)|

21
# **4.2 Scenario 1: Increase in World Prices**

World agricultural prices began to rise significantly early in 2005 and by June 2008 prices was above historical peaks for almost all agricultural commodities traded internationally (OECD and FAO, 2008). Although a decline in prices is expected in the short run, the average is expected to remain above the mean of last 10 years in the medium term. This increase is expected to be between 20 percent to 80 percent for various agricultural products.

For the change in world prices we follow the estimates given by FAO and OECD (2008) for 2016-2017. The magnitude of price shocks given to the model is depicted in Table 4.3. The average increase is about 30 percent.

**<u>Table 4.3. Price Shocks in Scenario 1</u>**

|**I**<br>**W**|**ncrease i**<br>**orld Pri**|**n**<br>**ce**|**Increase in**<br>**World Price**|
|---|---|---|---|
|**Product**|**(%)**|**Product**|**(%)**|
|Wheat|48|Fruits|10|
|Barley|45|Nuts|10|
|Maize|42|Other crops|45|
|Other grains|45|Milk|62|
|Pulses|45|Cattle Meat<sup>2</sup>|19|
|Sugar beet<br>|27|Other Bovine Meat<sup>2</sup>|23|
|Raw Cotton<sup>1</sup>|7|Poultry and Eggs|24|
|Oil seeds|42|Other Animal Prod.|20|
|Potatoes|10|Other Agricultural Prod.|<br>20|
|Vegetables<br>|10<br>|Average<br>|30|

> ~~1~~ Ethridge et. al. (2006) and FAPRI (2008) 2 Estimate for European Union _Source: FAO and OECD (2008), Ethridge et al. (2006) and FAPRI (2008)_

Introducing the price shocks from Table 4.3 into the model has two primary effects. First of all, agricultural imports and exports change significantly. Increasing demand for exports will change the equilibrium price and quantities in the goods market. However the magnitude of the effects will be determined by elasticities. Since we employ an Armington structure, an increase in world prices are not reflected directly in domestic prices. Table 4.4 shows the resulting change in production and prices of commodities as a result of the price shocks described in Table 4.5. Price changes are higher for maize, pulses and other animal products. These products have a relatively higher share in agricultural exports and lower Armington elasticities implying a lower substitutability of domestic and imported goods.

37
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- dW/dUw - (I/D.)( [dFF/dZ1[dFp/dUw] - [dFp/dZ1[dFF/dUw] ° (1/D 4 )( - [2(l-a1<sup>)(l-a2)B,nPf(n)][-alPf(n)]</sup> ) - (1/D 4)( 2(1-aj)(l-a)BjnPf(n)alPf(n) ) < 0.

- dW/dI - (l/D4)( (dFF/dZ][dFp/dIj - [dFp/dZ][dFp/dI] ) - (l/D4)( [2csPf(n)u'(Z)+6uu"(Z)][-2(l-oi)8in(-P)] < 0.

A&Mendix 5: A coooeratLve Same in **the R2F**

# The efficiency locus

The NZH solution is the solution to the following problem: jax(([a,PZf(n)-aaWn - UM]9[nv(W)+(m-n)v(B)+nu(Z)+(m-n)u(0) - UeP) We take logs of the expressions in the curled brackets, differentiate with respect to W and n, and obtain:

**-a2n** nv (W) **e** o + (1-0) _ a1PZf(n)-a2Wn - _Um_ nv(W)+(m-n)v(B)+nu(Z)+(m-n)u(0) - Us

-tjPZf I(n) -a,?W v(W)-v(B)+u(Z)-u(0) e + (1-0) -o a,PZf(n)-a2Wn - U. nv(W)+(m-n)v(B)+nu(Z)+(m-n)u(O) - U8

> C1PZf _'_ (n) -a2W v(W) -v(B)+u(Z) -u(O)

V'(W) The slope of the efficiency locus can be found using IFT if we write the condition for the efficiency locus this way: F - (ajPZf'(n)-a2W)v'(W) + a2(v(W)-v(B)+u(Z)-u(O)) dW dF/dn aQPZf"(n)v'(W) dn dF/dW a2v'(W) + (a,PZf'(n)-a2<sup>W)v"(W)+a</sup> 2<sup>v'(W)</sup>
―budgets, credit, savings accounts, checking accounts, and so forth.‖ Finally, those who answered yes to the third questions were asked whether these courses were required by his or her school. They find that mandates appear to effectively increase exposure to financial education, and have a significant subsequent effect on future savings.

Cole and Shastry (2009) replicate and extend Bernheim et al. (2001) using a much larger sample from census data that allowed for the inclusion of state fixed effects and similar controls for age and education levels. They are also able to include event-year dummies for the implementation of each mandate, an improvement over the original identification strategy. However, their results contradict the original finding that high school education impacts future savings.

The effects of other programs vary depending on the curriculum, the sample, and the methodology.<sup>5</sup> McCormick (2009) provides a good overview of evaluations of youth financial education programs. Some programs start at a very early age; Grody et al. (2008) evaluate a pilot program for third-graders using age-appropriate materials that shows promising results, while Holden et al. (2009) provides a critical overview of financial education programs targeted towards pre-school children.

More innovative strategies have also been used with students. Carlin and Robinson (2010) also employ quasi-experimental design to study the effects of a financial literacy course for high school students, one which involved role-playing fictitious budget situations (Junior Achievement Finance Park). They find that students who attended training were somewhat better 5 Just a few of the other studies in this area include Grimes et al. (2010), another analysis of the long-term effect of high school economics and business courses. They find a positive effect on the probability of having a savings account as an adult, an attribute which was also correlated with knowledge of basic economic concepts. Borden et al. (2008) study a financial education seminar program for college students (Credit Wise Cats), a peer-taught seminar covering basic financial topics (e.g. budgeting and tracking expenses, consumer credit and financing options, and savings and insurance coverage.) On the basis of tests administered before and after the seminar, they find it to have positive results on knowledge and attitudes. Mandell (2006) finds that contrary to intuition, ―just-intime‖ programs targeted towards students who are about to make a real-life financial decision do not seem to be effective. Mandell and Klein (2009) use a matched sample design to analyze the impact of taking a personal financial management course in high school on financial literacy, financial decision-making (behavior regarding credit card use, debt, savings, etc.), and attitude towards saving. The courses, which were offered at three high schools, lasted a full semester covered ―all aspects of personal financial management that were thought to be relevant and important to students.‖ They also find no effect, although their sample size is fairly small.

26
# **Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China**

## **1. Introduction**

The balance between domestic supply and demand for food in China is extremely important both for China and for the world. Since China embarked on its economic reforms in 1978, it has had dramatic increases in income, achieving an 8.5 percent average annual per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms (the World Development Indicators (WDI), the World Bank).

This rapid economic growth has contributed greatly to changes in Chinese diets both in quantity and in composition. Since China’s overall per capita calorie consumption levels already appear to be well above world average levels, and to be approaching the level in the Republic of Korea, China’s per capita food consumption in caloric terms seems unlikely to rise dramatically. However, diets in China are likely to change in composition, as consumers shift their diets increasingly from crop based to animal based products and away from basic staples. The shift to the diets of more affluent consumers imposes greater burdens on the agricultural sector since the production of animal based food takes much greater amounts of agricultural resources and generates more environmental externalities than production of a vegetable-based diet (Steinfeld, Gerber, Wassenaar, Castel, Rosales and De Haan, 2006; Rask and Rask, 2011).

Since the commencement of its reforms, China has experienced an impressive agricultural output growth, with its agricultural GDP at constant prices growing at an annual rate of 4.6 percent between 1978 and 2011, four times faster than the rate of population growth (Huang, Rozelle and Yang, 2013). The introduction of the Household Responsibility System (HRS) (1978), in which farmers were allowed to lease land from the collectives and to exercise autonomy in their production decisions, gave incentives to farmers to increase their productivity 2
# WPS4030

## **Liberalizing Trade in Services: A Survey***

Bernard Hoekman World Bank and CEPR

**Abstract:** Since the mid 1980s a substantial amount of research has been undertaken on trade in services. Much of this is inspired by the WTO or regional trade agreements, especially the EU, but an increasing number of papers focus on the impacts of services sector liberalization. This paper surveys the literature, focusing on contributions that investigate the determinants of international trade and investment in services, the potential gains from greater trade (and liberalization) and efforts to cooperate to achieve such liberalization through trade agreements. There is increasing evidence that services liberalization is a major potential source of welfare gain, and that the performance of service sectors, and thus services policies, may be an important determinant of trade volumes, the distributional effects of trade, and economy-wide growth. Relatively little research has been done on the political economy of services trade and investment policies and the implications for the design of international cooperation – whether trade agreements or development assistance. This is an important lacuna given the extensive efforts that are invested by governments in the pursuit of such cooperation, both bilateral and multilateral.

**JEL codes:** F1, F2, F5, L80 **Keywords** :  trade in services, WTO, GATS, trade agreements, economic development

### World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4030, October 2006

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

* An earlier version of this paper appeared as Hoekman (2006). I am grateful to Carsten Fink for detailed comments, and to Rolf Adlung, Kym Anderson, Philippa Dee, Joe Francois, Rolf Langhammer, Keith Maskus and Aaditya Mattoo for helpful suggestions, inputs and discussions.