interactions. Stability has also co-existed with an absence of reforms and an absence of sufficient economic dynamism, which has in turn bred a number of prevailing challenges in terms of economic opportunities and participation. Yet, the recent upheavals in the MENA region appear to not be driven by a clear set of economic shocks (e.g., food, fuel, or finance), but rather are the result of a contagion effect, accelerated by the growing prominence of new digital media. This being said, there are very real economic challenges that persist in many of these countries which have certainly fueled anti-government mobilization.

5. Our paper sets out to review potential frameworks for thinking about the linkages between resource wealth, violent conflict, and development prospects in the region, and presents salient quantitative and qualitative evidence. As the outset, we argue that it is critical to define notions of conflict in both positive and normative terms. Indeed, the prevalence of political contestation will in many instances be an integral part of development processes and prospects. Contestation is part of any healthy and evolving state-society relationship. However, prolonged violence and intense conflict over long periods of time will affect overall growth and poverty reduction prospects, in addition to the victims it directly creates. Further, prolonged conflict may itself undermine the functioning of a credible and legitimate state that can be critical in order for the government to pursue development over the long term.

6. The operational objectives of this paper are to discuss how the World Bank might more effectively project virtuous versus vicious development trajectories in resource-rich countries of the MENA region. Vicious development trajectories are cast particularly in terms of the risk of prolonged and violent conflict, whereas measures to enhance resilience against violent conflict are understood in conjunction with efforts toward broad-based, inclusive, and sustainable development. The 2011 World Development Report highlights some broad factors, combined with external and internal stresses, that make countries more susceptible to violent conflict. We seek to identify key aspects of public sector management (PSM), including its links to private sector development (PSD), that provide important and promising entry points set against the prevailing political economy. We cast this discussion of political economy not so much in terms of how to make reforms happen from a tactical perspective, but rather how particular PSM and PSD reform entry points should be seen to contribute to more virtuous rather than vicious developmental trajectories.

7. We proceed in seven sections. Section 2 provides a analytical framework that can be useful for thinking about development trajectories and political typologies in the MENA region. Section 3 provides an analysis of the relationship between violent conflict and oil using quantitative evidence and data on violent conflict incidence globally and in MENA countries. Section 4 provides a more in-depth overview of conflict trends in the MENA region. Section 5 provides a summary of the MENA regional literature on the relationship between resource rents, political instability, and conflict. Section 6 then identifies a series of public sector management (PSM) and private sector development (PSD) priorities that have typically been associated with policy challenges in resource dependent settings, and presents these through a lens designed to help understanding and help mitigate associated conflict risk in the MENA region and promote virtuous rather than vicious developmental trajectories. It also highlights how engagement around these priorities could be specifically catered towards resource-dependent contexts given potential shifts in political regime (using the framework set out in Section 2). Section 7 concludes.

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