# **1. Introduction**

Libya is among the African countries with the highest proportion of migrants – around 12% – with respect to the total population. At the same time, Libya is a major gateway to Europe, with up to 90% of people crossing the Mediterranean Sea departing from its borders (IOM 2017a).

This paper provides the first overall assessment of migration patterns to, within, and from Libya during 2017 and 2018. Despite the humanitarian, political, and economic relevance of migration, lack of data has prevented an in-depth analysis of migration in Libya from being conducted. Using the most detailed data available, this paper contributes to the understanding of migration in conflict-affected developing countries, documenting the characteristics, location decisions, and movements of migrants, returnees, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Libya.<sup>1</sup> The data used in the analysis are from the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) data set of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The DTM tracks population mobility in Libya using data collected through periodic surveys and provides detailed information on international migrants, refugees, and IDPs, whether staying in or passing through the country. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to use multiple waves of DTM data for a rigorous empirical analysis of international migration patterns in Libya.

Our analysis provides a number of results. First, we document the geographical distribution of international migrants in Libya and characterize them in terms of gender, age, country of origin, and preferred destination country. Then, we describe their movements to, within, and from Libya. To begin, we establish that migration in Libya can be characterized as forced migration because conflict intensity is the main determinant of the relocation decision across provinces. Next, we describe the direction, composition, and evolution of international migration flows passing through Libya. We identify the network of migration routes connecting Libyan provinces and describe the mechanisms of location selection by migrants within Libya by identifying hotspots and cluster provinces. Our results indicate that there is a dense net of connections across Libyan provinces in terms of migration movements. From 2017 to 2018, the number of hotspots increased, and the area around Tripoli continues to represent a cluster of provinces attracting migrants. At the same time, we document a reduction in the total number

> 1 IOM (2016a) defines migrant as “any non-Libyan national present in the country. Migrants can include refugees and asylum seekers (fleeing war, conflict, persecution, etc.) as well as individuals who left their homes due to lack of economic perspectives in their places of origin, or who are in Libya to study.” An IDP is any “person or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized state border.” A returnee is “any person who was displaced internally or across an international border but has since returned to his/her place of habitual residence”.

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