rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
several resource-rich countries, it has not really changed the globalization landscape insofar as the region is concerned: most countries remain highly exposed to the volatility of commodity prices and adverse terms of trade shocks, the contribution of the region to global trade remains abysmally low, and informal sector employment has emerged as a temporary alternative to the shortage of jobs in the formal sector. With Africa’s working age population projected to grow by more than 13 million every year in the coming decades,<sup>32</sup> the extension of the colonial development model, where countries in the region are connected to the global economy as primary commodity exporters, will only exacerbate downside risks, such as current account deficits and poverty.<sup>33</sup> The recurrence of these risks is consistent with the “Prebisch-Singer” hypothesis. Recurrent current account deficits reflect the secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities vis-à-vis manufactured goods. This risk has probably been exacerbated by rapid population growth in the region in recent years, and is likely to increase even more in the coming decades, especially with the African population projected to double by 2050.<sup>34</sup> In the medium and long-term, successfully integrating African countries into the global economy and strengthening their external position may hinge on transcending the residual colonial constructs to adopt development models that promote structural transformation and export diversification.

At the same time, economic diversification may be gender-equality enhancing in that it may foster women’s economic empowerment by expanding opportunities for formal employment in the laborintensive manufacturing and service sectors. Such a transformation could be a viable alternative to the informal economy whose remarkable growth over most of the post-colonial period has not been effective in lifting people out of poverty in the region. Future research will explore the implications of economic diversification for gender equality and women’s economic empowerment.

> 32 See World Bank (2011).

> 33 Most African countries are slated to miss the first Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015, despite the impressive boom in commodity prices over the last decade. 34 See World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision, United Nations, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections, United Nations (2011).

26
resulted in significant changes in spreads or margins.<sup>3</sup> Finally, using cross-sectional data for 2004, we find tentative evidence that banks with larger branch networks and smaller average account sizes incur high overhead costs and charge higher spreads, consistent with the hypothesis that at least part of the high margins is explained by outreach efforts. Overall, our findings suggest a limited role for market structure in driving bank efficiency, which points to more structural impediments to lower spreads and margins.

This paper makes several important contributions to the literature on interest spreads and margins. First, we complement cross-country studies on the effect of foreign bank entry and bank concentration with an in-depth country study.<sup>4</sup> Second, unlike other papers, we study the factors determining both ex-ante interest rate spreads and ex-post interest rate margins and can thus compare these results. This comparison leads to interesting findings such that bank size is positively associated with margins, but negatively with spreads. Third, we contribute to a small literature on Sub-Saharan Africa’s financial systems. Most papers studying the efficiency and market structure of banking systems, have limited data on Sub-Saharan Africa or focus on nonAfrican countries. Finally, we contribute to a small literature on the effect of financial market structure and financial liberalization in Uganda (Birungi, 2005; Clarke, Cull and Fuchs, 2006; Habyarimana, 2005; Hauner and Peiris, 2005; Cull, Haber and Imai, 2006).<sup>5</sup> The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 gives an overview of the main developments in the Ugandan banking sector over the past 20 years. Section 3 discusses

> 3 While there is the possibility that this could reflect transitory patterns, this seems unlikely given that there is more cross-bank than cross-time variation in spread and thus high degree persistence in spreads and margins. 4 Demirguc-Kunt and Huzinga (1999) and Demirguc-Kunt, Laeven and Levine (2004) use large cross-country bank panels, while Martinez Peria and Mody (2004), Brock and Rojas-Suarez (2000) and Saunders and Schumacher (2000) study the factors behind interest margins in the Latin American region. There is a variety of country-level studies on the effect of financial liberalization on margins or spreads, among them, Chirwa and Mlachila (2004) who study the effect of financial liberalization on spreads in Malawi.

> 5 Only Birungi (2005) considers factors explaining interest rate spreads over the period 1999 to 2005.  Unlike this paper, however, he does not have data available on key variables such as operating costs and profitability and his econometric methodology does not account for possible heterogeneity in the panel observations.

5
migrants in Iran when compared to the native population.

From this series, our results align most with those from (Kovac et al., 2021) as the authors explore the effects of forced displacement on the educational attainment of voluntary migrants, IDPs, and refugees in Croatia and Bosnia. For Croatia they use a similar dataset to ours and for Bosnia a representative survey. Overall, they find that greater war exposure to conflict negatively affects the educational attainment of migrants. For Bosnia they identify some educational and economic advantages of external migration, but these advantages diminish or become negative for individuals who were directly forced to move. In Croatia, they find a small convergence in educational outcomes between the refugee and host groups.

The reminder of the paper is structured as follows. In the next section, we describe the Chilean case and identify some of the major educational roadblocks for forced migrants, migrants, and native students. We then present a brief literature review and outline our main hypotheses. Afterwards, we describe our research design and report our results. Finally, we discuss the results and propose some public policy recommendations.

# **Context**

## **Migration and educational inclusion in Chile**

Chile has made remarkable progress in terms of economic growth and access to public education compared with other Latin American countries over the last 40 years. This success has made it an attractive destination for migrants and forced migrants from elsewhere in the region. Chile’s foreign-born population increased by more than 19 percent from 2018 to 2019, when it comprised 7.5 percent of the population). It is thus a unique case for studying migrant educational outcomes.

Half of Chile’s current immigrant population has arrived since 2015 (INE, 2017). Nearly 80 percent of the country ’s migrant population as of 2020 comes from five countries: Venezuela, (30.7 percent), Peru (16.3 percent), Haiti (12.5 percent), Colombia (11.4 percent), and Bolivia (8.5 percent) INE (2021). Over two-thirds (71 percent) are aged 15–44. Furthermore, poverty is higher among immigrants (10.8 percent) than among native Chileans (8.5 percent), and multidimensional poverty (which includes factors in addition to income) is even higher at 24.6 percent and 20.5 percent, respectively. Thus, migrants remain a vulnerable population.

4
Please evaluate the following opposing statements about practice in monitoring commitments and mnanaging aggregate expenditure.

In your organization, a system for monitoring and controlling the total stock of expenditure commrritments incurred is * not present * present * present and moderately effective * present and highly effective In your organization the total stock of expenditure commitments is monitored frequently throughout the year and controls are in place to ensure that total commitments do not exceed total budget authorization (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) totally disagree (4) totally agree (Macedgnia) How easy is it to find necessary records in your department? Please answer on a scale from 1 to 4, where 1 corresponds to "extremely difficulf' and 4 corresponds to "very easy". (Macedonia) In general, cases of cormption are always, frequently, occasionally or never reported to proper authorities? 1. Always 2. Frequently 3. Occasionally 4. Almost never or never

||(Macedgnia)|
|---|---|
|How easy is it to find necessary records in your department? Please answer on a scal<br>corresponds to "extremely difficulf' and 4 corresponds to "very easy".<br>In general, cases of cormption are always, frequently, occasionally or never reported<br>1.<br>Always<br>2.<br>Frequently|e from 1 to 4, where 1<br>(Macedonia)<br>to proper authorities?|
|3.<br>Occasionally<br>4.<br>Almost never or never|(Bolivia)|
|Would you say that, in your organization, corruption is a||
|1.<br>very serious problem,||
|2.<br>a serious problem,||
|3.<br>a somewhat serious problem, or||
|4.<br>not a serious problem at all?||
||(Bolivia)|
|How difficult is to obtain information from those records?||
|1. Very difficult||
|2.<br>Difficult||
|3.<br>Easy||
|4.<br>Very easy||
||(Bolivia)|
|How reliable is the information contained in your organization'sHRMIS?||
|1.<br>Very reliable||
|2.<br>Reliable||
|3.<br>Not reliable||
|4.<br>Completely unreliable||
||(East Caribbean States)|
|Does your organization's HRMIS contain the following?||
|1 .<br>Updated records of all training you attended||
|2.<br>The dates when you got increment or moved from one scale to another||
|3.<br>Perfornance evaluation reports||
|4.<br>The date you will retire from service||
||(East Caribbean States)|
|When were your own records last updated on HRMIS?||
|1 .<br>In 2000||
|2.<br>In 1999||
|3.<br>In 1998||
|4.<br>Do not know when the records were updated||
||(East Caribbean States)|
|How easy or difficult is to obtain for official purposes records of employees in your|organization?|
|<br>I .<br>Very easy||
|<br>2.<br>Easy||
|3.<br>Difficult||
|4.<br>Very difficult||
||(East Caribbean States)|

51
Policy Research Working Paper 5235

# **Abstract**

While the economic returns to using chemical fertilizer in Africa can be large, application rates are low. This study explores whether this is due to missing and imperfect markets. Results based on a panel survey of Ethiopian farmers suggest that while fertilizer markets are not altogether missing in rural Ethiopia, high transport costs, unfavorable climate, price risk, and illiteracy present formidable hurdles to farmer participation. Moreover, the combination of factors that promote or impede effective fertilizer markets differs among locations, making it difficult to find a single production technology that is uniformly profitable—perhaps explaining the inconsistency between field studies finding large returns to fertilizer use in Ethiopia and survey-based studies finding fertilizer use to be uneconomic. The results suggest that households with greater stores of wealth, human capital and authority can overcome these hurdles. The finding offers some encouragement, but also implies a self-enforcing link between low agricultural productivity and poverty, since low-asset households are less able to overcome these problems. The study suggests that the provision of extension services can be effective and that lowering transport costs can raise the intensity of fertilizer use by lowering the cost of fertilizer and boosting the farmgate value of output.

This paper—a product of the Agriculture and Rural Development Team, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the department to discover ways to improve the productivity of African farmers. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at DLarson@worldbank.org. This study was supported by the Knowledge for Change Program, under the project title, “An African Green Revolution: Finding Ways to Boost Productivity.” The authors thank Derek Byerlee, Peter Hazell, Kei Kajisa, Keijiro Otsuka and participants at a Tokyo workshop in December 2009 for suggested improvements to an earlier draft.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
rate in the longer run. There is therefore a potential _trade-off_ emerging between unemployment and poverty: although the reduction in the minimum wage raises unskilled employment in the formal sector, it also mncreases poverty (albeit slightly) in the short term for that category of households, whereas the poverty rate for skilled workers in the formal sector r.ses both in the short and the long run. Changes in the consumption-base& Gii coefficient indicate that income distribution is effected quite significantly by a cut in the minimum wage; the degree of inequality falls by more than one percentage point in the long run. This effect is directly related to the sharp reduction in consumption experienced by capitalists and rentiers, .elative to other household groups.

# 3.2 Out 2ln PayroHR tas an U k%lild1 laba:r

The simulation results associated with a permanent, 5 percentage-point reduction in the payroll tax rate on unskilled labor are illustrateed in Tables 3 to 8. The results correspond to three alternative budget financing rules: domestic borrowing (that is, an endogenous adjustment in the capitalistsrentiers savings rate, as in the previous case) with no offsetting t?x change; an offsetting, revenue-neutral increase in sales taxes on private forraal sector goods only; and a revenue-neutral increase in income taxes.<sup>31</sup>

## 3.2O . EDomestic E1orc>winng

Consider first the case of domestic borrowing (7ables 3 and 4). Tne impact effect of a reduction in the payroll tax rate is qualitatively similez to a cut in the minimum wage, as discussed earlier: by reducing the effectfve cost of unskilled labor, it tends to increase immediately the demand for that category of labor-in the present case by 3.4 percent in the first year, anc by about the same amount on average during the adjustment period. Thie unskilled unemployment rate drops by 2.2 percentage points in the first year as well, and in the long run by an average of 1.4 percent. And the reduction in the

> 31A potential problem with these simula-tions, as in othex studies along the same linesuch as Dreze et al. (1984)-is the failure to distinguish between changes in _average_ tax rates, and changes in _margznal_ tax rates. The effects could be very different. .Por instance, a reduction in the average payroll tax rate might reduce "wage-push" press-as, whereas a cut in marginal rates might reduce the unemployment cost of achieving a higher net income, thereby influencing trade unions' bargaining strategies.

40
<!-- Start of picture text --> 0.9<br>0.8 -<br>0.7-<br>0.6<br>0.5l 11989<br>0.4 -*N1996<br>0.3<br>0.2<br>0.1<br>0<br>co c 0o S c c .a 51~ a S C<br>e s2 co e f c o ta .5. S -o<br>ui - - ~ 0 0cc0<br><~~~~~ E N.<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 1: Exports to other FSU countries relative to total exports Figure 1 shows each country's share of total excports that go to other FSU countries. FSU export shares have declined for all but three former members-Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan. This suggests that a significant reorientation of trade away from FSU countries has occurred since the disintegration of the FSU.

Our interest, however, lies primarily with the domestic reorientation of trade within Russia, so we also document the share of total FSU trade for each region and each republic that is with Russia. In the pre-reform period, on average 65 percent of each region's trade with the FSU countries was with other Russian regions and trade shares were flat (Figure 2). In the reform period, the share of trade that is inter-regional rises to about 80 percent, for all regions. The republics' share of FSU trade with the Russian regions is about 50 percent in the pre-reform period and fairly constant (Figure 3). In the reform period, regional trade shares change dramatically.

7
# **<mark>Regulating Personal Data: Data Models and Digital Services Trade</mark>**

**Martina Francesca Ferracane** European University Institute (EUI)

## **Erik van der Marel**

ECIPE, Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Keywords: data protection, privacy, globalization, trade, WTO JEL codes: F13, F15, K20, K24, L86 This paper is a joint product of the WDR 2021 team and the International Trade Unit (ETIRI) of the Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment GP. The study was commissioned as a background paper to the WDR 2021 “ _Data For Better Lives_ ” and as an input to ETIRI’s work program on Digital Trade Regulation (P171481), under the guidance of Martín Molinuevo (Senior Counsel, ETIRI).

* The authors thank Lillyana Sophia Daza Jaller for excellent research assistance, and Martín Molinuevo for helpful comments during the process. They especially thank Ben Shepherd, Sébastien Miroudot and Hildegunn Nordås for helpful comments and feedback while writing the paper, as well as Daria Taglioni, Sébastian Sáez, Vivien Foster, Gonzalo Varela, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, Bernard Hoekman and Matteo Fiorini for comments and reviews on earlier drafts.
# 1. Introduction

Directly and comprehensively measuring non-durable consumption expenditures via large-scale household surveys such as the Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS) is generally regarded as the best way to assess the prevalence of poverty in low income countries. But such surveys are complex and costly, and so are conducted in fewer places, with smaller samples, and with lower frequency than is desirable if our aim is to measure changes in poverty over time (Beegle et al. 2016).

In response, researchers have been looking for alternative approaches to track poverty at reduced cost and effort. One approach involves the construction of models that use observed characteristics that are easier to collect (or that have already been collected for other purposes) to predict consumption. The success of this approach hinges critically on the stability of the model parameters over time and across different survey designs. One way to mitigate this concern is to identify empirically the conditions under which this assumption is more likely to hold (Christiaensen et al. 2012; Mathiassen 2013; Kilic and Sohnesen 2019). Another is to combine the survey collection, with more complete consumption aggregates for some households, while only collecting proxies for consumption for others (Pape and Mistiaen 2018; Yoshida et al. 2015). Nonetheless, model parameter instability cannot be excluded. With more high-resolution earth observation data and more powerful machine learning expertise now readily available, another class of models predicts consumption and poverty by applying artificial intelligence techniques to a combination of satellite imagery (especially daytime imagery) and existing household data. Prediction accuracy often exceeds benchmarks from more standard regressionbased approaches, especially in estimating poverty levels at very disaggregated levels—so-called poverty mapping (Head et al. 2017; Jean et al. 2016; Watmough et al. 2019). However, whether these models calibrated on data for a certain year are better able to make accurate predictions on data for another year remains largely untested.<sup>1</sup> The issue of model stability remains.

This paper explores the potential of a different approach, without the need for prediction and model parameters. Instead of falling back

> 1. An interesting exception is Bansal (2020) who demonstrates temporal transferability of a simple machine learning model applied to satellite data to estimate the evolution of a district level development index (akin to the Human Development Index) using temporal satellite data as input.
Policy Research Working Paper 1024

# **Abstract**

Starting in 2011, the Syrian civil war has resulted in the displacement of over 80% of the Syrian population. This paper analyzes how the widespread use of social media has recorded migration considerations for Syrian refugees using social media text and image data from three popular platforms (Twitter, Telegram, and Facebook). Leveraging survey data as a source of ground truth on the presence of IDPs and returnees, it uses topic modeling and image analysis to find that areas without return have a higher prevalence of violence-related discourse and images while areas with return feature content related to services and the economy. Building on these findings, the paper first uses mixed effects models to show that these results hold preand post- return as well as when migration is quantified as monthly population flows. Second, it leverages mediation analysis to find that discussion on social media mediates the relationship between violence and return in months where there are fewer violent events. Monitoring refugee return in war prone areas is a complex task and social media may provide researchers, aid groups, and policymakers with tools for assessing return in areas where survey or other data is unavailable or difficult to obtain.

This paper is a product of the Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at ewalk@mit.edu.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team