**<u>Appendix table 3: Predicted direct and indirect effects of conflict on NDVI of winter cereal fields</u>**

||||**Conflict**|**indicator**|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**None**|**Under**|**Conflict**|**Troop**|**Any**|**Conflict**|
|||**occupation**|**actions**|**presence**||**intensity**|
|Conflict indicator||-0.005**|0.001|0.000|-0.000|-0.019***|
|||(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.002)|(0.002)|(0.003)|
|Crop damage area (100 ha)|-0.003***|-0.003***|-0.003***|-0.003***|-0.003***|-0.002***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|GDD>0 (Oct 1-May 31)|0.001***|0.001***|0.001***|0.001***|0.001***|0.001***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|GDD>0 squared|<br>-0.000***<br>|<br>-0.000***<br>|<br>-0.000***<br>|<br>-0.000***<br>|<br>-0.000***<br>|<br>-0.000***<br>|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Precipitation fall (mm)|<br>0.001***|<br>0.001***|<br>0.001***|<br>0.001***|<br>0.001***|<br>0.001***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Precipitation fall squared|<br>0.000***|<br>0.000***|<br>0.000***|<br>0.000***|<br>0.000***|<br>0.000***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Precipitation winter (mm)|<br>0.000**|<br>0.000***|<br>0.000**|<br>0.000**|<br>0.000**|<br>0.000***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Precipitation winter squared|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Precipitation spring (mm)|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|<br>-0.000***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Precipitation spring squared|-0000|-0000|-0000|-0000|-0000|-0000|
||.<br>(0.000)|.<br>(0.000)|.<br>(0.000)|.<br>(0.000)|.<br>(0.000)|.<br>(0.000)|
|Zero rain days fall|<br>-0.008***|<br>-0.008***|<br>-0.008***|<br>-0.008***|<br>-0.008***|<br>-0.008***|
||(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|(0.001)|
|Zero rain days winter|-0.000|-0.000|-0.000|-0.000|-0.000|-0.000|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Zero rain days spring|0.006***|0.006***|0.006***|0.006***|0.006***|0.006***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Zero rain days fall squared|0.000***|0.000***|0.000***|0.000***|0.000***|0.000***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Zero rain days winter squared|-0.000|-0.000|-0.000|-0.000|-0.000|-0.000|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Zero rain days spring squared|-0.000***|-0.000***|-0.000***|-0.000***|-0.000***|-0.000***|
||(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)|
|Year 2020|-0.025***|-0.025***|-0.024***|-0.025***|-0.025***|-0.025***|
||(0.004)|(0.004)|(0.004)|(0.004)|(0.004)|(0.004)|
|Year 2021|0.015***|0.014***|0.015***|0.015***|0.015***|0.013***|
||(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.003)|
|Year 2022|-0.072***|-0.072***|-0.072***|-0.072***|-0.072***|-0.072***|
||(0.006)|(0.006)|(0.006)|(0.006)|(0.006)|(0.006)|
|Year 2022 # share>2500ha|0.030***|0.030***|0.029***|0.029***|0.030***|0.032***|
||(0.006)|(0.006)|(0.006)|(0.006)|(0.006)|(0.006)|
|Year 2022#share>=500ha & <2500ha|0.013*|0.014**|0.013*|0.013*|0.013*|0.016**|
||(0.007)|(0.007)|(0.007)|(0.007)|(0.007)|(0.007)|
|Constant|0.133***|0.132***|0.133***|0.133***|0.133***|0.118***|
||(0.031)|(0.031)|(0.031)|(0.031)|(0.031)|(0.031)|
|No. of obs|36,684|36,684|36,684|36,684|36,684|36,684|
|R-squared|0.363|0.363|0.363|0.363|0.363|0.364|

_Note_ **_:_** Results are from 2019-2022 panel regressions where the unit of observation is the village council and the dependent variable is the NDVI for fields planted with winter wheat in each of the relevant years. Crimea and areas that have been occupied since 2014 are excluded. GDD is cumulative growing degree days above 0°C between October 1and May 31 approximated hourly by sinusoidal distribution of minimum and maximum temperature (d’Agostino and Schlenker, 2016); and fall, winter and spring months are Oct-Nov, Dec-Feb, and Mar-May, respectively. ‘Any’ (Col. 5) is the maximum over the 8 two-week periods considered whereas ‘conflict intensity’ (col 6) accounts for the temporal dimension by taking a value of 1 for any of the 8 two-week periods when any conflict activity was observed. See appendix table 1 for full specification including weather variables. Standard errors in parentheses. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.010.

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