comparison to 1993, although one not close to the magnitude witnessed for the psychological distress measures. Yet a third difference is a decline in poor GHS for middle-aged and older respondents between 1998 and 2000 while psychological distress remains at elevated levels. Understanding the determinants of change in the GHS measure, especially the flattening of the age gradient from 1993 – 2000, lies beyond the focus of this paper. What is clear is that the general and sustained rise in the population’s psychological distress is not mirrored by changes in the population’s perceived general health.

# _Individual transitions in psychological distress and the crisis_

We turn next to an investigation of the transitions into and out of psychological distress exploiting the repeat observation dimension of the panel data to examine changes in well-being of the same individuals over time. Table 2 summarizes the results for transitions between 1993 and 2000. For each measure of psychological distress, the percentage of people in each of four possible categories is listed – those who report psychological distress in both survey years, those who report no distress in either year, those who transit into distress and those who transit out of distress.

As is apparent in the aggregate data, a substantial fraction of males and females have transitioned into being psychologically distressed during this period. However, over half the population – and in some cases three-quarters – had no transitions with the vast majority of these people never reporting that they felt psychological distress. A small but significant fraction of the population moved out of feeling distressed during this period. For example, among the 12% of males who felt sad in 1993, over half did not feel sad in 2000. Among the 17% of women who felt sad, half did not feel sad in 2000. At the same time, about 20% of males and 30% of females moved from not feeling sad in 1993 to feeling sad in 2000. The patterns are broadly similar for the other indicators of psychological well-being.<sup>9</sup> Females are more likely to transition into and out of distress and, in general, the fraction of the population that transitions into psychological distress during this period is between 2 and 5 times greater than the fraction that transitioned out of distress. In contrast with the psychological indicators, relatively few people transition into poor health and around two-thirds of those who were in poor health in 1993 report they are not in poor health in 2000.

# _Psychological distress and individual characteristics_

The combination of measures of psychological well-being along with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals collected in IFLS between 1993 and 2000 provides unique opportunities to identify those sub-groups of the population who are at elevated risk of suffering from

> 9 The patterns are also similar for transitions in the 25% sub-sample over the 1993 – 1998 period. When looking at the 1998 – 2000 period, the relative persistence of distress in contrast to either the 1993 – 2000 or 1993 – 1998 period is clear. The ratio of those individuals reporting distress in both 1998 and 2000 vis a vis those who transit out of a distressed state is higher than the same ratio calculated for the periods that span the crisis.

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