# **Table 7. Pre-reform common trends tests regressions** **<u>Panel A. Full Sample</u>**

||Depende|nt variable: log im|port value|
|---|---|---|---|
||Sample period:|Sample period:|Sample period:|
||<br>2009-1<sup>st</sup>semester<br>of 2014|<br> <br>2010-1<sup>st</sup>semester<br>of 2014<br>|<br> <br>2010-1<sup>st</sup>semester<br>of 2014<br>|
|||Annual shocks<br>|Semester shocks<br>|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|
|Semester time trend|0.013***|0.109***|0.089***|
||(0.001)|(0.007)|(0.009)|
|Semester time trend * Indicator for FVA products|0.002|0.000|0.003|
||(0.002)|(0.002)|(0.004)|
|Export supply shock - log country of origin total exports||||
|to world||0.110***|0.102***|
|||(0.005)|(0.010)|
|Import demand shock - log Albania imports from world||0.018***|0.042***|
|||(0.003)|(0.003)|
|Import demand shock - log Bulgaria imports from world||0.042***|0.049***|
|||(0.006)|(0.011)|
|Import demand shock - log Greece imports from world||0.049***|0.059***|
|||(0.006)|(0.012)|
|Import demand shock - log Serbia imports from world||0.046***|0.083***|
|||(0.004)|(0.009)|
|HS 4-digit product * country of origin fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Country of origin * year fixed effects|No|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|172,644|162,260|112,794|
|R-squared|0.785|0.790|0.798|
|**Panel B. Sample of food contact mate**|**rials and p**|**roducts in s**|**ame HS 2-digit**|
||Depende|nt variable: log im|port value|
||Sample period:|Sample period:|Sample period:|
||2009-1<sup>st</sup>semester|<br>2010-1<sup>st</sup>semester|<br>2010-1<sup>st</sup>semester|
||of 2014|of 2014|of 2014|
|||Annual shocks|Semester shocks|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|
|Semester time trend|0.013***|0.108***|0.090***|
||(0.002)|(0.009)|(0.012)|
|Semester time trend * Indicator for food contact||||
|materials|0.005|0.002|0.001|
||(0.003)|(0.003)|(0.005)|
|Export supply shock - log country of origin total exports||||
|to world||0.110***|0.102***|
|||(0.006)|(0.015)|
|Import demand shock - log Albania imports from world||0.018***|0.044***|
|||(0.004)|(0.004)|
|Import demand shock - log Bulgaria imports from world||0.015|0.019|
|||(0.009)|(0.017)|
|Import demand shock - log Greece imports from world||0.040***|0.031*|
|||(0.009)|(0.017)|
|Import demand shock - log Serbia imports from world||0.081***|0.126***|
|||(0.007)|(0.015)|
|HS 4-digit product * country of origin fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Country of origin * year fixed effects|No|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|99,121|93,686|65,899|
|R-squared|0.769|0.774|0.781|

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% confidence levels, respectively. In Panel A FVA products includes food of animal origin (license N853), animal feeds (license I047), food of nonanimal origin and food contact materials (license I007)). In column (3) of Panels A and B the import demand shock for Albania is annual (as in column (2)) due to data constraints.

One problem with the above results is that non-FVA products may not serve as a good control group for FVA products as a whole. Panel B provides results for a smaller sample that includes only FVAcontrolled products in the category of food contact materials along with other HS 4-digit products included in the corresponding HS 2-digit chapters. As discussed in Section IV.3, the advantage of using this sample 34