However, these enrollment rates have spiked with the FBEP policy (MoEVT 2016 – 17). Between 2015 and 2018, the introduction of FBEP increased primary and secondary school enrollment rates by 20 and 24 percent, respectively and secondary transition rates rose from 67 to 71 percent in 2018 (World Bank 2019b). At the same time there is evidence that primary and secondary education systems are already under considerable pressure in terms of input availability (see Section 3). Given these trends, how should Tanzania plan education service delivery in preparation for current and projected sharp enrollment increases?

One possibility for accommodating the rapidly increasing secondary enrollment is for private schools to play a role. Globally, private schools are increasingly important in education service delivery, even for poor families. Roughly one in eight primary school students around the world attends a private school. In middle-income countries, one in four secondary students attend a private school (World Bank 2018a). In fact, in some contexts, parents seem willing to bypass lower-quality public schools in favor of better-quality private ones with higher fees (Andrabi et al 2008).

Why are private schools increasingly important in conversations about public education service delivery? This can be for several reasons. First, of particular relevance to this paper, private schools can fill a supply gap when the nearest public schools are far away, or when there is demand to expand faster than public infrastructure can be built (Oketch et al 2010, Tooley 2005). Private schools may also be more innovative than public schools because they have more autonomy (Patrinos et al 2009). Private schools may have lower rates of teacher absence (Bold et al 2017). Also, competition from private schools may improve the performance of nearby public schools (Kosec 2014, Sandström and Bergström 2005).

However, despite growing global relevance, private school involvement as a part of any government’s official education strategy tends to be highly controversial. This is partially because private schools may exacerbate existing inequalities in education access - a particular concern if these schools skim off the higher-income or higher-performing students, leaving only the more disadvantaged students in the public system. Some have argued that even if private schools bring short-term benefits, they may undermine effective public schooling in the longer term. Also, cross-country data analysis finds no private school advantage in terms of student performance in a majority of countries, when controlling for other factors (Sakellariou 2017).

One possible solution that may minimize risks but maximize potential benefits of private schools is well-designed public-private partnerships. These are contracts between the government and a private sector provider, where the government acquires a service for a specified time period, for instance, with the aim to increase enrollment and minimize inequality (Taylor 2003). PPPs in education may be able to ensure increased access by harnessing the excess capacity, management efficiency, and creative potential of the private sector without sacrificing the equity goals typically associated with the public sector. PPP designs can address both supply- and demand-side constraints. The most prevalent demand-side mechanisms include vouchers and subsidies and supply-side mechanisms include private finance initiatives where the private sector is contracted to operate/maintain/manage schools or even to provide services like teacher training, curriculum design and textbook provision (Patrinos 2009).

Would PPPs in basic education be a viable strategy for Tanzania? This paper provides a first-stage empirical exploration of this question. It examines some important enabling conditions for potential PPPs in secondary education in Tanzania through different information sources and perspectives. We rely largely on in-depth data on public and private schools in the Morogoro region of Tanzania, buttressed by national statistics and a nationally representative parental SMS survey.

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