rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Uncertainty and global warming : an
            option - pricing approach to policy
Uncertainty is inherent in the analysis
            of global warming issues.  Not only is there considerable
            scientific uncertainty about the magnitude of global
            warming, but even if that problem were resolved, there is
            uncertainty about what monetary value to assign to the costs
            and benefits of various policies to reduce global warming.
            And yet the influence of uncertainty in policymaker's
            decisions is ignored in most studies of the issue.  The
            authors try to explicitly incorporate the effect of
            uncertainty in the choice of global warming abatement
            policies.  The approach they develop draws on the emerging
            literature on investment under uncertainty - in particular,
            that on the option-valuation approach.  Their numerical
            applications focus on the Cline's (1992) analysis of
            global warming, but it may be applied to a range of global
            warming analyses.  First, they assess whether it is optimal
            to implement Cline's strategy of limiting global
            warming today, or whether it should be postponed, and for
            how long.  Then, they identify the optimal policy to be
            implemented today for different levels of uncertainty about
            the costs and benefits of policies to reduce global warming.
Macroeconomic effects of
            terms-of-trade shocks : the case of oil-exporting countries
The authors investigate the impact on
            economic growth and development of long-run movements in the
            external terms of trade, with special reference to the
            experience of 18 oil-exporting countries between 1973 and
            1989. They argue that this sample approximates a controlled
            experiment for examining the impact of unanticipated -- but
            permanent -- shocks to the terms of trade. They analyze the
            sample econometrically using panel data techniques. They
            find that permanent terms-of-trade shocks have a strongly
            significant positive effect on investment, which they
            justify theoretically on the grounds that countries in the
            sample import much of their capital equipment. The shocks
            also have a significant positive effect on consumption.
            Government consumption responds almost twice as strongly as
            private consumption. The shocks have no effect on savings
            and adversely affect the trade and current account balances.
            There is a significant positive effect on the output of all
            main categories of nontradables. But Dutch disease effects
            are strikingly absent. Agriculture and manufacturing do not
            contract in reaction to an oil price increase. Dutch disease
            effects may be absent in part because of policy-induced
            output restraints in the oil sector, or because of the
            "enclave" nature of the oil sector, which does not
            participate in domestic factor markets.
China's GDP in U.S. dollars
            based on purchasing power parity
China's gross domestic product per
            capita was only US$300 to $370 in 1980-91 in an estimate
            based on the World Bank Atlas approach used in the World
            Development Report. These estimates fail to capture the fact
            that in the 10 years since embarking on a program of
            economic reform aimed at rapid economic development, China
            has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
            Knowing what its true standard of living and productive
            potential is important not only for measuring the size of
            China's economy but for assessing its growth
            performance. The authors provide a detailed comparison of
            the GDP of China and the United States using the purchasing
            power parity approach formulated by the U.N. International
            Comparison Program (ICP), with 1986 as a base. Using this
            approach, which establishes a conversion factor based on
            prices for comparable items rather than on exchange rates,
            they find that: 1) China's per capita GDP in 1986
            international dollars in between $770 and $1,044, depending
            on assumptions made about comparison-resistant service
            sectors and quality adjustments made in a number of selected
            ones in calculating purchasing power parities; and 2)
            China's per capita GDP in 1991 international dollars is
            between $1,227 and $1,663, allowing for the impact of
            inflation in the United States on the purchasing power
            parity and growth rates in China computed from national
            currency GDP data in constant prices.
Pakistan's agriculture sector :
            is 3 to 4 percent annual growth sustainable
A key source of the impressive growth in
            Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been the
            agriculture sector, which grew about 3.6 percent a year for
            25 years.  The author analyzes whether such a growth rate is
            sustainable.  In different periods, growth has come from
            different sources: from a seed, fertilizer, and irrigation
            packages in the 1960's, from intensification of water
            and fertilizer use in the 1970's, and from improvement
            of crop management and incentives in the 1980s.  In the past
            10 years, cotton has been a main source of growth.  The
            momentum for growth may be ending.  Total cultivable land
            and irrigation cannot increase significantly.  At best,
            water resources can expand by 10 percent, and only at great
            cost.  Also, there have been problems with cotton in recent
            years.  Future growth must come mainly from increases in
            productivity, achieved by allocating resources to crops for
            which the country has a comparative advantage, improving the
            technical efficiency of inputs for each major crop, and
            increasing cropping intensity.  But increasing productivity
            means changing major agricultural systems, policies, and
            institution, including: (a) Poor incentives policies, which
            have led to inappropriate use of land and hence to problems
            of soil erosion and land degradation; (b) Poor distribution
            of land resources and inadequate systems of land tenure.  At
            one extreme are very large estates of absentee landlords,
            and at the other, very small, ill-equipped peasant farms.
            Insecurity of tenure creates disincentives for investing in
            land; (c) Persistent problems with irrigation, essential on
            more than three-fourths of agricultural land in Pakistan;
            (d) Weak human resources and infrastructure; and (e) Direct
            government intervention in agricultural markets, which,
            although recently diminished, still distorts markets.
            Subsidized imports of wheat and price controls on cotton
            exports reflect a persisting bias against cotton and wheat,
            while sugarcane is heavily protected.  The protection of
            domestic industry distorts sectoral prices.  Government
            policy also distorts the market for such vital inputs as
            seeds and fertilizer.  Serious problems in the credit market
            exacerbate other problems arising from policy distortions.
Income inequality, welfare, and
            poverty : an illustration using Ukranian data
The Ukraine is now faced with economic
            crisis on an unprecedented scale. The government has to
            follow rigorous demand management policies, which entail
            lowering the population's standard of living. To design
            policies that protect the poorest and most vulnerable groups
            in the society, it is important to understand the nature of
            poverty and income inequality. The author addresses the
            following questions: What is the extent of income inequality
            and is it increasing? How can observed changes in inequality
            be explained? Is the burden of income tax evenly distributed
            across the population? The Ukranian data base is far from
            satisfactory, so the author's findings are only
            tentative. Among them: 1) the standard of living increased
            significantly in the late 1980s, then fell in the 1990s.
            Real per capita family income grew by an average of 7
            percent in 1989-90, then fell about 24 percent in 1991-92.
            Per capita income for families dependent on government
            transfers fell by more than one-half. 2) Income inequality
            declined in the 1980s, to rise again in 1991-92. In
            particular, the family incomes of state and collective farm
            workers -- relative to industrial workers -- improved
            between 1980 and 1991. The increase in inequality that
            occurred in 1991-92 came about, among other reasons, because
            government benefits tended to be redistributed to richer
            families, not those in need. Poverty in Ukraine declined
            over the period 1980-91, from 38 percent of the population
            to 9 percent. But in 1992, 30 percent of the population was
            poor again, an alarming increase attributable both to a
            decline in real per capita income and an increase in income
            inequality. Still, income inequality was lower in Ukraine
            than in most other former republics of the Soviet Union.
Foreign technology imports and
            economic growth in developing countries
The authors investigate the relationship
            between foreign technology imports and economic growth in
            developing countries. They develop an intertemporal
            endogenous growth model that explicitly accepts foreign
            technology imports as a factor of production. The model
            establishes a link between the growth rate of productivity
            in a developing country and the country's intensity of
            learning to use foreign technologies. They hypothesize that
            a developing country's economic growth rate increases
            as foreign technology imports increase. They run regressions
            with data for about 50 developing countries, using different
            econometric methods and time spans. These empirical tests
            confirm the hypothesis that foreign technology transfers
            boost income growth rates. Moreover, economic developing in
            developing countries differs from that in industrial
            countries. In developing countries, increases in
            productivity depend not on innovation but on importing
            foreign plants and equipment and on borrowing foreign technology.
Small and medium-size enterprise
            support policies in Japan
The authors examine how Japan's
            public and private sectors support small and medium-size
            enterprises (SMEs). They focus on technical, financial, and
            marketing assistance. Their findings are based on a survey
            of 107 firms; 40 that produce silverware, 33 engaged in
            synthetic textile weaving, and 34 that manufacture auto
            parts. Each sector represents a distinctive form of
            industrial organization, but they also share several
            characteristics: each industry is concentrated in a
            particular region, each involves close subcontracting
            relationships, and each has overcome difficulties and
            achieved a certain measure of industrial success. Technical
            support for these SMEs came largely through private
            channels, including parent firms, equipment suppliers, and
            other firms in the same line of business. Public
            institutions played only a subordinate role. Marketing
            support also came largely from parent firms, trading
            companies, and other private sources. Producers of
            intermediate goods in particular - such as auto parts and
            synthetic textiles - relied heavily on subcontractors. Most
            loans for Japan's SMEs were provided under competitive
            market conditions but three sources of directed credit -
            loans from specialized parastatals, loans channeled through
            local governments, and loan guarantees - accounted for about
            20 percent of all SME borrowing and 35 to 60 percent of
            investment borrowing. Default rates averaged less than
            one-half of one percent of outstanding loans, and real
            interest rates were positive. The majority of firms
            surveryed used and valued directed credits. The smallest
            firms in particular valued them. Public institutions
            complemented the private marketplace in all three areas.
            Public technical and marketing support helped create and
            maintain private networks. In finance, Japan successfully
            embedded directed credit in a well-functioning,
            predominantly private, competitive, and prudential financial
            system. Through partnerships, public support continues to
            play both a direct and an indirect role in supporting the
            development of SMEs in Japan.
A typology of foreign auction
            markets in sub-Saharan Africa
The authors compare and contrast the
            design and outcomes of different foreign exchange auctions
            in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa and present a
            typology of such auctions.  They identify two distinct sets
            of countries in terms of the auctions' features, policy
            interventions, and outcomes.  In Ghana and Uganda, the
            exchange rate auctions are judged to have been largely on
            target in exchange rate unification, exchange rate
            stabilization, and efficient allocation of foreign exchange.
            The auctions in Nigeria and Zambia, on the other hand, were
            subject to frequent policy interventions, resulting in
            unsustainable auctions, inefficient allocation of foreign
            exchange (through ad hoc disqualifications), limited
            unification, and a rather volatile exchange rate.  The
            conclusions reached by the authors are broadly corroborated
            by a statistical analysis of weekly micro-auction data for
            all four countries.
The interface of trade, investment,
            and competition policies : issues and challenges for Latin America
Latin American countries have not had
            much experience with competition policy. Restricted trade
            policies, together with no competition policy, have often
            resulted in domestic monopolies. Trade liberalization in the
            1980s and 1990s has strengthened import competition, but
            trade policies alone cannot create a competitive economic
            environment. Trade policy as an instrument of competition
            policy (limited as it has been) has been constrained by a
            disproportionate amount of nontraded goods, vertical
            integration, and distribution monopolies -- and sometimes
            the use of antidumping, countervailing, and safeguard
            measures. Competition policies -- such as antitrust laws,
            merger controls, and other regulatory measures -- can
            prevent exclusionary practices, collusion among competitors,
            and the abuse of market power. Allowing foreign ownership
            and liberalized investment regimes will further enhance
            domestic competition by adding market presence. The authors
            contend that trade and competition policies must complement
            each other and that when they do, welfare improves. Tensions
            between the policy areas arise because of globalization,
            regional policies, technical barriers, certain kinds of
            industrial policy, and macroeconomic exigencies. Trade
            policy itself can be used for protection even without high
            tariffs or quantitative restrictions. Antidumping,
            countervailing, and safeguard measures limit rather than
            promote competition. These measures -- which should be
            GATT-compatible by law and competition-promoting in spirit
            -- must be used judiciously. The authors favor the use of
            safeguards rather than other measures to provide temporary
            protection for firms facing import surges. Latin American
            countries have recently made impressive strides in trade
            reform, but have made limited use of competition policies.
            The authors argue for more use of competition policies to
            enhance gains from trade reform. They also argue for
            harmonization of competition policies as these countries
            reduce barriers against each other through regional
            agreements. More efforts should be made to: 1) create
            favorable competitive environments; 2) harmonize trade,
            regulatory, and competition policies as well as conflict
            resolution mechanisms; and 3) strengthen enforcement
            mechanisms and make them binding.
Where in the world is population
            growth bad
Would economic growth be better if
            population growth were slower? There are two apparently
            opposite answers to this question. Advocates of policies to
            reduce population growth rates are completely convinced by
            the common sense view that rapid population growth greatly
            hurts economic growth because of scarcer natural resources,
            reduced investments (per child) in health and education, and
            lower rates of capital accumulation per worker. The
            empirical evidence (usually marshalled by economists)
            provides an equally convincing, and seemingly contradictory,
            answer: There is no strong, stable relationship between
            countries' population growth and their per capita
            output growth rates. The authors propose an empirical
            reconciliation between the two views. No one really believes
            that the impact of a 10 percent increase in population would
            have the same impact in Bangladesh as it would have in
            Canada, or even the same impact in crowded Malawi or Rwanda
            as in sparsely populated Zaire or Zambia. But if the impact
            of population growth on economic growth differs across
            countries, it might on average be small (even statistically
            indistinguishable from zero) in the usual empirical
            estimates, even though the negative impact in particular
            countries might well be large. The real answer might be,
            "It depends on country conditions." But this
            answer is uninformative unless one can show which country
            conditions "it depends" on. Is it most harmful in
            poor countries? In countries with poor policies? The authors
            try to discover the condition under which population growth
            hurts economic performance by allowing interactive terms for
            country conditions. The empirical results do not give
            confirmation to any of the plausible distinctions across
            country conditions - the impact of population growth is not
            worse in poor countries and is not worse in land-scarce
            countries. Their measure of resource scarcity may be one
            reason for this failure to find an interaction, but while it
            failed to produce satisfying results, it is a major
            conceptual improvement over even simpler indicators, such as
            population density, or the empirical literatures studied: no
            interaction. Identifying the conditions under which
            population growth is a drag on economic growth should be a
            priority as efforts to reduce population growth should be
            concentrated in those countries where the efforts give the
            greatest payoff.
Ruble overhang and ruble shortage :
            were they the same thing
Economists and policymakers in the
            Soviet Union before its dissolution were concerned about the
            growth of the "ruble overhang." The concern was
            that the rationing of consumer goods evident in prior years
            had led to an excess of purchasing power in households.
            Price liberalization was expected to lead to a jump in
            consumer prices as households tried to exercise their
            purchasing power. But after the Soviet Union dissolved, a
            new concern emerged: a ruble shortage. Throughout the ruble
            currency area, governments and state enterprises could not
            get enough rubles to pay wages and pensions. As a result,
            households were unable to make the purchases they wanted to
            make. Ruble shortages contributed greatly to the progressive
            deterioration of the ruble area, from its beginning with
            fifteen members to its present membership of two. The names
            given to these two episodes - the "ruble overhang"
            and the "ruble shortage" - are misleading, because
            they are both manifestations of the same phenomenon. In both
            cases, forced savings led to a reduction in purchasing power
            and downward pressure on inflation. The difference was in
            the mechanism that induced forced saving. For the ruble
            overhang, the government maintained price rigidity; there
            was nonprice rationing of output that was insufficient to
            satisfy demand at those rigid prices. For the ruble
            shortage, the government - through the de facto
            inconvertibility of deposits to currency. The result was the
            same: a rationed household sector unable to trade financial
            assets for commodities.