_ANDR EE_<sup>_ ́_</sup> _SEPTEMBER 28, 2022_ _18_ Using global growth expectations published in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of April 2022, the results in figure 1 put the 2021-2023 severely food insecure population at above 1 billion (a prevalence rate of 15%) in the World Bank’s 144 IDA and IBRD countries, an increase of over 172 million people (a relative increase of 21%, or a 2 point increase in the prevalence rate) over 2017-2019 pre-pandemic estimates. This projection concerns unmitigated impacts extrapolated from 2019 data that do not reflect the large amounts of aid and supportive policies that characterized the pandemic years, but have also not yet factored in the effects of sanctions and export restrictions imposed after March 31, 2022. Nevertheless, the projection is clear in direction and paints a protracted picture in which the previously anticipated rebound in headline growth occurs unequally, leaving many behind in food insecure conditions. The projected improvement of about 0.5 point in the prevalence rate after the 2022 peak is not sufficient to offset continued population growth. Without large-scale targeted interventions, the figure is projected to remain above 1 billion through 2027.

The projected prevalence of severe food insecurity also clearly exceeds the estimates for the 2008 World Food Price Crisis period. When comparing the current projection to the modeled estimates for this historical period, it is clear that the current rise in food insecurity is much more pronounced in the modeled estimates. To this regard, it is important to highlight that the current rise in food insecurity occurs in a vastly different global economic environment. First, from 2007 through 2012, global poverty rates at 1.90 $ fell each year including by almost a percentage point from 2008 to 2009, while the preliminary consensus is that the pandemic year has triggered a reversal in poverty for the first time in decades. Second, while the 2008 and 2011 global food price spikes led to several severe crises, the global prevalence of undernourishment continued to fall, albeit more slowly in 2008.<sup>21</sup> The current developments however extend from slowed poverty reduction since around 2013, an increase in global severe food insecurity since 2015 (start of measurement) and a reversal in the global undernourishment rate in 2018. Finally, global GDP per capita fell by -4.3% in 2020 compared to -2.9% in 2009, so the recent shock has also been sharper.

# _C. Projecting trends in response costs_

Development assistance has to account not only for changes in prevalence, but also for population growth and changes in response costs. This section showcases how the results can be used together with response costs assumptions to project trends in development financing needs.<sup>22</sup>

> 21The SOFI 2019 even found that world hunger did not rise during the 2007-08 global food crisis and 2008-09 financial crisis (box 10 on page 56 of the report), which runs counter to the modeled estimates here. The discrepancy is in the definition, in this box the report uses undernourishment, rather than severe food insecurity, to refer to ‘hunger’.

> 22For strict humanitarian response cost estimation, focusing on acute hunger rather than chronic food insecurity may result in a more precise estimate. Nevertheless, the arithmetic here otherwise shows that an unsustainable amount of development funds would need to shift away from previously