**Table 5: Effects of lockdown policies on export trade by top five countries and RoW**

|**Lockdown event dummies**|**China**|**Japan**|**United States**|**Korea, Rep.**<br>**Hong Kong SAR, China**<br>**RoW**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Lead12|0.011|6.244|-6.067|-4.810<br>13.687<br>-1.990|
||(10.861)|(7.238)|(7.625)|(9.467)<br>(11.002)<br>(3.776)|
|Lead11|3.305<br>|4.053<br>|3.228<br>|-0.556<br>9.660<br>-7.069*<br><br><br>|
||(10.491)<br>|(7.120)|(8.066)|(10.429)<br>(11.913)<br>(3.628)<br>|
|Lead10|22.921**<br>|-3.603<br>|-7.901<br>|5.803<br>16.350<br>-7.573**<br><br><br>|
||(10.046)<br>|(6.975)|(8.038)|(10.254)<br>(11.067)<br>(3.546)|
|Lead9|27.264***<br>|-9.594<br>|-4.660<br>|-6.764<br>14.152<br>-4.356<br><br><br>|
||(10.253)|(6.977)|(8.016)|(9.636)<br>(10.599)<br>(3.527)|
|Lead8|23.908**|-2.984|-7.901|-12.818<br>25.235**<br>-6.604*|
||(10.072)|(6.703)|(8.300)|(10.078)<br>(10.211)<br>(3.447)|
|Lead7|6.726<br>|-11.770*<br>|4.585<br>|1.094<br>28.949***<br>-4.151<br><br><br>|
||(10.323)|(7.155)|(8.006)|(9.766)<br>(10.557)<br>(3.430)|
|Lead6|19.629**<br>|-8.496<br>|2.963<br>|5.549<br>26.804***<br>-5.731*<br><br><br>|
||(9.712)|(6.892)|(8.005)|(10.697)<br>(10.351)<br>(3.363)|
|Lead5|8.854<br>|-16.307**<br>|6.169<br>|-18.419*<br>9.361<br>-5.256<br><br><br>|
||(10.372)|(7.562)|(7.969)|(10.668)<br>(11.180)<br>(3.349)|
|Lead4|5.868<br>|0.696<br>|8.447<br>|-14.616<br>22.778**<br>-0.945<br><br><br>|
||(9.599)|(6.313)|(7.388)|(9.811)<br>(11.228)<br>(3.159)|
|Lead3|15.406<br>|3.448<br>|-15.641**<br>|-9.503<br>7.185<br>-2.641<br><br><br>|
||(9.431)|(6.534)|(7.747)|(10.088)<br>(10.267)<br>(2.955)|
|Lead2|5.363|-4.110|6.964|-9.391<br>5.941<br>1.212|
||(9.629)|(6.385)|(7.511)|(10.436)<br>(10.291)<br>(2.674)|
|Lag0|20.379**|-11.787*|7.968|-8.380<br>15.821*<br>-0.547|
||(9.708)|(6.448)|(7.185)|(9.989)<br>(9.583)<br>(2.701)|
|Lag1|5.532|-6.044|-17.884**|-3.669<br>-7.039<br>-2.021|
||(9.838)|(6.493)|(7.723)|(10.343)<br>(10.578)<br>(2.872)|
|Lag2|16.871*|3.991|-30.158***|15.774<br>24.899**<br>-2.337|
||(9.963)|(6.488)|(10.118)|(12.004)<br>(10.333)<br>(3.101)|
|Lag3|39.518***|-31.328***|-17.434**|-1.363<br>34.881***<br>-5.424|
||(11.105)|(8.020)|(8.177)|(10.303)<br>(12.073)<br>(3.482)|
|Lag4|30.573***|-12.690*|-0.081|-4.594<br>34.324***<br>-11.050***|
||(10.262)|(6.836)|(7.682)|(10.183)<br>(11.360)<br>(3.383)|
|Lag5|31.672***|-10.453|10.458|-1.919<br>39.619***<br>-13.096***|
||(9.873)|(6.398)|(7.971)|(10.095)<br>(10.555)<br>(3.334)|
|Lag6|25.663***|-7.116|15.596**|-5.223<br>23.411**<br>-13.033***|
||(9.883)|(6.350)|(7.845)|(10.710)<br>(10.797)<br>(3.344)|
|Lag7|11.720|-1.641|6.088|-9.043<br>13.489<br>-7.017**|
||(10.454)|(6.099)|(8.153)|(10.761)<br>(10.862)<br>(3.392)|
|Lag8|3.465|5.099|8.964|-5.253<br>20.297*<br>-8.091**|
||(9.874)|(6.426)|(7.661)|(10.163)<br>(10.886)<br>(3.483)|
|Lag9|17.586*<br>|-6.622<br>|-1.016<br>|-13.557<br>22.018*<br>-6.562*<br><br><br>|
||(10.250)|(6.713)|(8.091)|(11.118)<br>(11.474)<br>(3.506)|
|Lag10|21.672**<br>|-13.441*<br>|2.010<br>|-12.301<br>22.353**<br>-5.328<br><br><br>|
||(9994)|(6923)|(8259)|(10442)<br>(10985)<br>(3998)|
|Lag11|.<br>31.481***|.<br>-13.012*|.<br>-|.<br>.<br>.<br>-<br>27.380**<br>-2.574|
||(9.786)|(6.819)|-|-<br>(10.891)<br>(4.550)|
|Constant|983.951***|983.141***|984.613***|984.149***<br>983.360***<br>985.420***|
||(1.969)|(2.022)|(2.026)|(1.955)<br>(1.966)<br>(3.223)|
|Observations|237,016|237,016|237,016|237,016<br>237,016<br>237,016|
|Number of pair<br>~~i~~d|42,619|42,619|42,619|42,619<br>42,619<br>42,619|
|R-squared|0.012|0.012|0.012|0.011<br>0.012<br>0.011|

Note: RoW is the Rest of the World. Estimation was conducted on the monthly trade data using a fixed effects estimator that accounts for cross-country-product heterogeneities. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. Asterisk indicate the level of *** ** * significance, _p <_ 0 _._ 01, _p <_ 0 _._ 05, _p <_ 0 _._ 1.

Figure A6 reveals that imports were more affected by strict lockdown measures than exports. Exports to countries that had stringent COVID-19 policies fell by an average of around 12% between the first and third months of the lockdown where the coefficients are statistically significant. This result is contrary to Kenya where lockdowns reduced exports 28