rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
A new model for market-based
            regulation of subnational borrowing - the Mexican approach
Faced with weak sub-national finances
            that pose a risk to macroeconomic stability, Mexico's
            federal government in April 2000 established an innovative
            incentive framework to bring fiscal discipline to state and
            municipal governments. That framework is based on two
            pillars: an explicit renunciation of federal bail-outs, and
            a Basel-consistent link between the capital-risk weighting
            of bank loans to sub-national governments, and the
            borrower's credit rating. In theory, this new
            regulatory arrangement should reduce moral hazard among
            banks and their state, and municipal clients; differentiate
            interest rates on the basis of the borrower's
            creditworthiness; and, elicit a strong demand for
            institutional development at the sub-national level. But its
            access will depend on three factors critical to
            implementation: 1) Whether markets find the federal
            commitment not to bail out defaulting sub-national
            governments credible. 2) Whether sub-national governments
            have access to financing other than bank loans. 3) How well
            bank capital rules are enforced.
How the proposd Basel Guidelines on
            rating-agency assessments would affect developing countries
Using historical data on sovereign and
            individual borrowers, the authors assess the potential
            impact on non-high-income countries of linking capital asset
            requirements for banks to private sector ratings, as the
            Basel committee has proposed. They show that linking
            bank's capital asset requirements to external ratings
            would have undesirable effects for developing countries.
            First, ratings of banks and corporations in developing
            countries are less common, so capital asset requirements
            would be practically insensitive to improvements in the
            quality of assets-widening the gap between banks of equal
            financial strength in higher- and lower-income countries.
            Second, bank and corporate ratings in developing countries
            (unlike their counterparts in high-income countries) are
            strongly linked to the sovereign ratings for the country-and
            appear to be strongly related (asymmetrically) to changes in
            the sovereign ratings. A sovereign downgrading would bring
            greater changes in capital allocations than an upgrading,
            and would call for larger capital requirements at the very
            time access to capital markets was more difficult. Under the
            new guidelines, capital requirements in developing countries
            would thus be exposed to the cyclical swings associated with
            the revision of sovereign ratings in recent crises.
            Ultimately, linking banks' capital asset requirements
            to private sector ratings would reduce the credit available
            to non-high-income countries and make it more costly,
            limiting economic activity. Bank capital needs in developing
            countries would be more volatile than those in high-income
            countries. These findings suggest that the Basel Committee
            should assess the role it proposes assigning to external
            ratings, to minimize the detrimental impact of the
            regulatory use of such ratings on developing countries.
Gender, poverty, and nonfarm
            employment in Ghana and Uganda
The authors provide evidence that
            women's non-farm activities help reduce poverty in two
            economically and culturally different countries, Ghana and
            Uganda. In both countries rural poverty rates were lowest -
            and fell most rapidly - for female heads of household
            engaged in non-farm activities. Participation in non-farm
            activities increased more rapidly for women, especially
            married women and female heads of household, than for men.
            Women were more likely than men to combine agriculture and
            non-farm activities. In Ghana it was non-farm activities
            (for which income data are available ) that provided the
            highest average incomes and the highest shares of income.
            Bivariate profit analysis of participation shows that in
            Uganda female heads of household and in Ghana women in
            general are significantly more likely than men to
            participate in non-farm activities and less likely to
            participate in agriculture.
Bidding for concessions
Privatization of infrastructure ventures
            in sectors such as energy, telecommunication, transport, and
            water has become popular over the last decade. Often- for
            good or bad reasons - private firms are given monopoly
            franchises under some type of long-term concession
            agreement, for example "Build-Operate-Transfer"
            schemes. The article surveys the issues arising in designing
            specifications as well as incentive and risk-sharing
            parameters comprehensively and consistently both to achieve
            efficient performance by the concessionaire and to minimize
            post-award renegotiations. Concession award should as a rule
            be made competitively, unless special requirements of speed,
            innovation, or excessive transaction cost argue otherwise.
            Typically, competitive concession award is made by first
            price sealed bids. There are strong arguments, however, to
            consider open auctions more seriously in a number of cases.
            Auctions may also be re-awarded by way of auction. However,
            somewhat arbitrary bid preferences may have to be set.
            Auctioneers for complex concession contracts should operate
            at arms-length from all interested parties, including
            politicians. It may be sensible to let independent agencies
            that regulate the concession scheme run the auction.
Leading indicator project - Lithuania
The authors present a method for
            forecasting growth cycles in economic activity, measured as
            total industrial production. They construct a series which
            they aggregate into a composite leading indicator to predict
            the path of the economy in Lithuania. The cycle is the
            result of the economy's deviations from its long-term
            trend. A contractionary phase means a decline in the growth
            rate of the economy, not necessarily an absolute decline in
            economic activity. The indicator they select for economic
            activity is usually the Index of Industrial Production, plus
            a group of variables that, when filtered and adjusted,
            becomes the composite leading indicator that forecasts the
            reference series. Variables include economically, and
            statistically significant financial, monetary, real sector,
            and business survey data. They base selection of the
            components of the leading indicator on the forecast
            efficiency and economic significance of the series. Once
            selected, the relevant variables are aggregated into a
            single composite leading indicator, which forecasts the
            de-trended Index of Industrial Production. They apply the
            Hodrick-Prescott filter method for de-trending the series.
            This is a smoothing technique that decomposes seasonally
            adjusted series, into cyclical and trend components. One
            advantage of the Hodrick-Prescott filter is that it provides
            a reasonable estimate of a series' long-term trend. The
            OECD uses a system of leading indicators to predict growth
            cycles in the economies of its member countries. These
            exercises have been very effective in their forecasting
            ability and accuracy - but for the technique to work it is
            essential to have an adequate statistical system that
            provides many economic variables in a precise and timely
            manner, preferably monthly. The authors extend the OECD
            technique, and present an application to a country of the
            former Soviet Union.
Why infrastructure financing
            facilities often fall short of their objectives
To encourage the private funding and
            provision of infrastructure services, governments have used
            specialized financing facilities to offer financial support
            to investors, often in the form of grants, soft loans, or
            guarantees. The authors present case studies of
            infrastructure financing facilities in various stages of
            development in Colombia, India, and Pakistan. They also
            present case studies of government-sponsored financing
            facilities (not of infrastructure) in Argentina, and
            Moldova. They find that these facilities have often fallen
            short of their objectives for two main reasons. First, the
            environment was not conducive to private participation in
            infrastructure because of poor sector policies, an unstable
            macroeconomic environment, and inadequate financial sector
            policies, among other reasons. Second, the facility was
            faulty in design - in terms of sectors targeted, pricing of
            instruments, and consistency of objectives, and instruments.
Terror as a bargaining instrument :
            a case study of dowry violence in rural India
The authors examine how domestic
            violence may be used as a bargaining instrument, to extract
            larger dowries from a spouse's family. The phrase
            "dowry violence" refers not to the paid at the
            time of the wedding, but to additional payments demanded by
            the groom's family after the marriage. The additional
            dowry is often paid to stop the husband from systematically
            beating the wife. The authors base their case study of three
            villages in southern India on qualitative and survey data.
            Based on the ethnographic evidence, they develop a
            noncooperative bargaining and signaling model of dowries and
            domestic violence. They test the predictions from those
            models on survey data. They find that women whose families
            pay smaller dowries suffer increased risk of marital
            violence. So do women who come from richer families (from
            whom resources can more easily be extracted). Larger dowries
            - as well as greater satisfaction with the marriage (in the
            form of more male children) - reduce the probability of
            violence. In India marriage is almost never a matter of
            choice for women, but is driven almost entirely by social
            norms, and parental preferences. Providing opportunities for
            women outside of marriage and the marriage market would
            significantly improve their well-being by allowing them to
            leave an abusive husband, or find a way of
            "bribing" him to stop the abuse, or present a
            credible threat, which has the same effect.
Taxing issues with privatization : a checklist
Privatization has been a popular
            strategy for improving efficiency in both market and
            transition economies. The literature on privatization
            includes broad discussions of pricing techniques but
            overlooks tax issues. In reality, a state-owned company
            loses its privilege of paying no taxes once it is
            privatized. This change in tax status would certainly
            complicate the financial transaction of a newly privatized
            company, affect industry-wide economic efficiency, and
            change the revenue pattern of governments. Using Ontario
            Hydro and the Canadian tax regime as examples, the authors
            provide policymakers with a checklist on tax issues under
            privatization. Their main observations: 1) The tax status of
            the company to be privatized must be considered in analyzing
            the firm's financial transition. 2) The economic
            efficiency targeted by privatization may depend partly on
            the tax regime for a particular industry. 3) Privatization
            affects government revenue through the revenue-sharing
            structure determined by intergovernmental fiscal
            relationships and cross-border tax arrangements. Time is a
            factor in tax and transition issues. At the time of
            privatization, for example, how are assets to be valued for
            calculating capital gains and cost deductions, for tax
            purposes? Are the assets transferred to the new owners at
            fair market value, book value, or at cost, for tax purposes?
            How should heavy debt loads be treated? Ontario Hydro will
            not be privatized but it will become taxable. How the taxes
            will be paid will depend on how the transition is treated.
            Tax policy will be a key determinant of the industry's
            future development.
Ownership and performance of
            Lithuanian enterprises
The author presents some evidence of
            improved corporate performance in Lithuania for the period
            1995-97. His question: Were these improvements in any way
            caused by privatization and changes in the environment in
            which enterprises operate? He presents evidence of
            correlation between ownership and enterprise performance as
            measured by increased revenues, and improved export
            performance. Controlling for pre-selection bias increases
            the magnitude, and significance of private share ownership,
            which indicates negative selection bias at privatization. On
            the other hand, (expected) subsidies seem to contribute
            negatively to enterprise performance. However, the study
            finds no clear evidence of the effect of market competition
            on performance indicators in the short run. The
            author's is the first study to analyze the consequences
            of commercial (as opposed to mass) privatization in Central
            and Eastern European countries.
Building subnational debt markets in
            developing and transition economies : a framework for
            analysis, policy reform, and assistance strategy
Subnational debt markets can be a
            powerful force in a country's development. Through
            delegated monitoring by financial intermediaries and through
            debt placed directly with investors, subnational debt
            markets account for about 5 percent of GDP in Argentina and
            Brazil. But they remain embryonic in most developing and
            transition economies. To resolve a potential clash between
            the increased financing needs of subnational entities and
            the limited development of domestic subnational debt
            markets, it is critical to support the orderly, efficient
            emergence of such debt markets. As a framework for policy
            reform, the following steps (mirroring typical weaknesses)
            are prerequisites for developing a country's
            subnational debt market: reducing moral hazard, improving
            market transparency, strengthening market governance,
            establishing a level playing field, and developing local
            capacity for accounting, budgeting, and financial
            management. In countries where the government shows a clear
            commitment to market development, says the author, the World
            Bank should support the framework needed for policy-based
            operations that establish hard budget constraints. In doing
            so, the Bank should concentrate on 1) supporting national
            and local capacity building in those areas essential for
            developing a subnational debt market; and 2) financing
            specific subnational projects with strictly nonrecourse
            loans. At the same time, the Bank should offer a variety of
            lending and guarantee instruments that encourage private
            financing for investments by subnational entities-including,
            for example, equity participation in (or lines of credit or
            partial credit guarantees to) financial intermediaries
            specializing in subnational investment finance or in funds
            for financing local infrastructure.
Sex workers and the cost of safe sex
            - the compensating differential for condom use in Calcutta
The practice of safe sex by commercial
            sex workers is considered central to preventing the
            transmission of AIDS in developing countries. The authors
            estimate the compensating differential for condom use among
            sex workers in Calcutta, based on results from a survey
            conducted in 1993. If, as suggested by anecdotal evidence,
            this loss in income is large, it would indicate the
            existence of strong disincentives for practicing safe sex.
            To identify the relationship between condom use and the
            average price per sex act, they follow an instrumental
            variable approach, exploiting an intervention program
            focused on providing information about the AIDS virus and
            about safe sex practices. The program, instituted in 1992,
            was not systematically administered. Using this method, they
            found that sex workers who always use condoms face a loss of
            79 percent in the average earnings per sex act.
Output fluctuations in Latin America
            - what explains the recent slowdown
The authors explain Latin America's
            growth slowdown in 1998-1999. To do so, they use two
            complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining
            how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific
            external factors: the terms of trade, international interest
            rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and
            climatological factors (El Nino). Using quarterly GDP data
            for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors
            estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50-60 percent of the
            slowdown was due to these external factors. The second
            approach allows for effects on output by some endogeneous
            variables, such as domestic real interest rates, and real
            exchange rates. Using monthly industrial performance data,
            the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector
            auto-regressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find
            that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is
            mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the
            slowdown in the sub-period 1998-99 is explained more than 60
            percent by shocks to the external factors.
Transparency, liberalization, and
            banking crisis
The authors investigate how transparency
            affects the probability of a financial crisis. They
            construct a model in which banks cannot distinguish between
            aggregate shocks and government policy, on the one hand, and
            firm' quality, on the other. Banks may therefore
            overestimate firms' returns and increase credit above
            the level that would be optimal given the firms'
            returns. Once banks discover their large exposure, they are
            likely to roll over loans rather than declare their losses.
            This delays the crisis but increases its magnitude. The
            empirical evidence, based on data for 56 countries in
            1977-97, supports this theoretical model. The authors find
            that lack of transparency increases the probability of a
            crisis following financial liberalization. This implies that
            countries should focus on increasing transparency of
            economic activity and government policy, as well as
            increasing transparency n the financial sector, particularly
            during a period of transition such as financial liberalization.
Growth forecasts using time series
            and growth models
The authors consider two alternative
            methods of forecasting real per capita GDP at various
            horizons: 1) univariate time series models estimated country
            by country; and 2) cross-country growth regressions. They
            evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both
            approaches for a large sample of industrial and developing
            countries. They find only modest differences between the two
            approaches. In almost all cases, differences in median
            (across countries) forecast performance are small relative
            to the large discrepancies between forecasts and actual
            outcomes. Interestingly, the performance of both models is
            similar to that of forecasts generated by the World
            Bank's Unified Survey. The results do not provide a
            compelling case for one approach over another, but they do
            indicate that there are potential gains from combining time
            series and growth-regression-based forecasting approaches.