Conflict settings are characterized by increased economic challenges, breakdown of social structures and changing norms, demographic changes due to migration and mortality, and other challenges (Girls Not Brides, 2017; Kohno et al., 2020; Presler-Marshall et al., 2020; Schlecht, 2016). The country context can interact with conflict specificities in complex ways to affect child marriage. For example, studies in Lebanon and the West Bank and Gaza have suggested that the economic destruction wrecked by conflict, in contexts with high costs of marriage, may decrease child marriage as young people cannot afford to marry (Khawaja, Assaf, & Jarallah, 2009; Saxena, Kulczycki, & Jurdi, 2004). However, in other conflict contexts, transactional marriages or child marriages to gain bride price may take place, increasing child marriage (Neal, Stone, & Ingham, 2016).

Social mechanisms, particularly gender norms, can shift during conflict to shape marriage practices, particularly around child marriage. For instance, increased fear that conflict may bring sexual violence or the risk of reputational harms for girls may increase child marriage (Neal, Stone, & Ingham, 2016). At the same time, such fears can also keep girls at home such that they meet fewer potential spouses, decreasing child marriage (Saxena, Kulczycki, & Jurdi, 2004).

Demographic changes wrought by violence and displacement can also mediate the effect of conflict on child marriage. For instance, the disproportionate death of men in conflict can affect child marriage in complex ways (Neal, Stone, & Ingham, 2016). Child marriage may decrease because there are simply fewer men to marry due to violence or migration (de Walque, 2006), or may increase due to competition for the relatively scarce remaining men (Heuveline & Poch, 2007). Countries may even experience factors that work in opposite directions, with varying effects over time. For example in Cambodia _during_ the Khmer Rouge regime child marriage declined due to high mortality among men, but _after_ the fall of the regime, there was a “rebound” increase in child marriage (Heuveline & Poch, 2007).

The mixed findings across country studies on the impact of conflict on child marriage could be the result of differing methods, specific contextual, temporal, or conflict differences, and/or data gaps. The current paper attempts to advance this literature by undertaking a multicountry study using consistent data and methods, substantively increasing our understanding of the relationship between conflict and child marriage.

# **3 Data**

In this section, we discuss data used to measure conflict, survey data used to measure child marriage, and data on geospatial boundaries. We matched conflict locations by merging together conflict measures with geospatial boundaries and household survey data. We then describe our key variables – namely the outcome variable (child marriage), our key covariate of conflict, and other controls.

# **_3.1 Conflict data_**

To measure conflict, we used the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)<sup>4</sup> Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) version 20.1 (Pettersson & Öberg, 2020; Sundberg & Melander, 2013),<sup>5</sup> which covered conflict events globally in 1989-2019. We discuss the variables used from the data in the key covariates section below.

> 4 UCPD captures conflict events, defined as “an incident where armed force was used by an organized actor against another organized actor, or against civilians, resulting in at least one direct death at a specific location and a specific date” (Sundberg & Melander, 2013, p. 4).

> 5 <mark>UCPD data publicly available from</mark> <u><mark>https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/index.html#ged_global.</mark></u>

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