likelihood of surges in net inflows while those with greater debt inflows are more likely to experience surges in net inflows.

Regarding push factors, higher world real interest rates reduce the likelihood of surges —as they typically attract more flows to advanced countries. Policy uncertainty and volatility in US stock markets also contribute to reduce the likelihood of surges in net inflows. Finally, contagion in capital flows leads to a higher probability of surges.

_Gross inflows_ . Our findings support that growth in the domestic economy is a robust predictor of surges in gross inflows. CPI inflation has a weak relationship with the incidence of surges and, in cases where it is statistically significant, it deters foreign investors from bringing their capital. Analogously, exchange rate flexibility has no robust relationship. In columns [7] and [8], our cloglog estimates show a positive and significant relationship, therefore, countries with more flexible arrangements are more prone to inflow surges. When a country holds external savings (i.e. current account surpluses), their investors are more likely to either invest at home or shift their portfolios abroad. Foreign investors do not necessary finance external imbalances. As a result, likelihood of inflow surges is less likely although the effect is not robust. Remarkably, overvalued exchange rates tend to robustly precede inflow surges. Growing leverage in domestic credit markets (as imperfectly captured by an expansion of credit beyond real economic activity) also has a positive effect but significantly only for surges in overall inflows rather than private inflows —see columns [5] and [7].

Trade openness, according to our cloglog estimates, has a positive and significant coefficient as well as in most of the cases the coefficient of natural resource abundance. Therefore, countries with greater openness to trade are more prone to subsequent inflow surges, especially for countries that have a net trade surplus in commodities. In contrast to our Probit, the coefficient of financial openness is not significant in most of the cases. Although the overall amount of inflows and outflows does not have a robust relationship, this composition of inflows has a significant impact. Both equity and debt gross inflows have a positive and robust relationship with the likelihood of subsequent inflow surges.

Push factors do not seem to have the same significant role in driving inflow surges from our Probit regressions. Our findings show that regional contagion of surges is the only robust determinants of future inflows of capital. Other significant results (although weaker in significance) show that surges in gross inflows are more likely to occur if: (a) the world growth increases, (b) the world interest rates decline, (c) the risk aversion is lower.

_Robustness to changes in the sample of countries: industrial vs. developing countries_ Table 10 shows the results from the complementary log-log regressions that include pull and push factors for the samples of industrial and developing countries.

_Net inflows._ Real growth helps pull surges in net inflows in developing countries, but that is not the case for industrial countries. A greater likelihood of surges in net inflows is experienced by industrial and developing countries with greater current account deficits (where more financial inflows are needed to finance external imbalances). On the other hand, we find that financial 25