displaying public procurement data and gradually evolve into a comprehensive anti-corruption data system through linking further datasets. The implementation of a comprehensive data analytics framework needs to rely on supportive regulations, organizational setup, and sufficient resources, as well as advances and investments in technological solutions.

Recommendations:

1. A flexible and easy-to-use dashboard for data-driven corruption risk assessment should be developed and gradually the underlying data scope should be extended by linking it to additional datasets.

2. The data scope could further be expanded by linking it to high-value datasets, allowing for a more comprehensive and detailed risk assessment. Such datasets could include, among others, beneficiary ownership data or data on sanctions and convictions.

3. High-quality data on investment projects and performance as well as its easy access and disclosure can facilitate oversight by relevant public institutions, enable monitoring by civil society, and promote confidence and consultation of both domestic and foreign investors.

4. Depending on the desired scope of the dashboard, Bulgaria will need to prioritize different kinds of data and conduct an in-depth assessment of the institutional, organizational, technological, and resource changes that may be required to move toward a more comprehensive corruption risk dashboard.

5. To ensure the continuous improvement and fine-tuning of the corruption risk framework developed in this paper, it will be important to establish a feedback loop in which results of the analysis are incorporated into the design of future analytics.

# 5.3. Improve public procurement and budget policies

Based on the analysis of individual red flags in Bulgaria and the available evidence around the world, a number of specific improvements can be made to the current public procurement regulatory framework. We review each of the key risk factors and propose specific reform pathways below.

**1. Fostering competition** is essential for the reversal of the decline in corruption control in Bulgaria in the last few years. Single bidding is one of the strongest determinants of high prices and belowoptimum quality in public procurement. While a high number of bidders should not be pursued at all costs, lowering the incidence of tenders with no or little competition is a safeguard for value for money in public procurement (Fazekas and Blum 2021).

**Recommendation** : Foster competition to further reduce the number of single bidder contracts and increase the average number of bidders. Competition can be promoted by breaking down market entry barriers and by reducing the transaction costs of competing.

**Implementation** : Borges (2019) shows that more open (less restrictive) technical and financial conditions in tenders can lead to stronger competition, hence greater savings. Furthermore, matching tender sizes to the market capacity and median bidder size can also successfully increase the number of bidders. For example, breaking up large tenders into smaller lots can help smaller enterprises compete. It is also crucial to make sure that open tender procedures apply and this practice is not used to engage in noncompetitive procedures such as direct negotiations. Moreover, Fazekas and Kocsis (2020) show that bid evaluation criteria, which are more concrete and objective, encourage a higher number of bidders and lower corruption risks in the EU. The implementation of such interventions could be closely monitored using real-time public procurement data and the dashboard advocated earlier.

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