rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
check, while continuing to honor judicial independence (Rosselli 2020). Consistent with this finding, a large group of studies find mixed evidence of positive effects on judicial effectiveness from increased court budgets (for example, Voigt and El Bialy (2013) for European courts).

# **2b. Access**

Access to justice measures the ability of the justice system to deliver outcomes that are accessible to all, irrespective of wealth, status, and gender. This includes eliminating barriers that prevent people from understanding and exercising their rights; and delivering fair and just outcomes for all citizens, including those facing financial and other disadvantages (Cappelletti 1981; Peysner 2014).

Access is associated with higher rates of entrepreneurship (Lichand and Soares 2014). Evidence from debt recovery tribunals in India shows that the speed and affordability of justice greatly increases the use of formal courts (Visaria 2009; Lilienfeld-Toal et al 2012). Lower court fees in the resolution of commercial disputes are also associated with a smaller size of the informal sector (Djankov et al 2003), another proxy for access. Empirical evidence on access to justice on GDP per capita growth in a panel of 83 countries from 1970 to 2014 shows that increasing access to justice by 1% increases the five-year growth rate of GDP per capita by 0.86 p.p. (Deseau et al. 2019). Cross-country and within-country evidence shows that increased court access, in the form of higher speed and lower procedural formalism, is a strong correlate of economic development (Chemin 2009a).

Although laws may be equal, prevailing discriminatory social norms, deeply rooted stereotypes, unconscious bias, and even ignorance or reluctance by institutions responsible for enforcing rights can be a major stumbling block to the implementation of legislation (Hyland et al 2020). In Pakistan, for example, Holden and Chaudhary (2013) and Ahmad, Batool and Dzueguelewski (2016) find that despite a legal change, few women were able to access justice due to factors such as lack of education and forced marriages. Gedzi (2012) highlights a similar result in Ghana, where reforms to inheritance laws led to some positive changes in terms of women’s inheritance.

15
20 Empirically, it provides a panel set of index estimates for agricultural goods that is well-grounded in trade theory, accounts for different forms of price distortions, and can be decomposed into producer assistance and consumer tax measures. The panel set covers 75 developing and developed countries over the past half-century. Using the estimates of the average changes in consumer and in consumer prices, we have calculated indexes of the changes induced in world trade and in the welfare of the trading countries. The indexes are more useful than just aggregate NRAs and CTEs as inputs into cross-county studies of the impact over time of agricultural distortions on growth, poverty, unemployment and so forth. They also are important supplements to the NRA and CTE in improving our understanding of the long history of food and agricultural price and trade policies. That is especially true in seeking an index of global distortions when developing and high-income countries’ NRAs or CTEs tend to offset each other.

Our new indexes provide a much more accurate view of the extent of distortions in agricultural markets at the present time, and they trace its history since soon after the end of the Second World War and the establishment of the GATT/WTO multilateral system. Our estimates suggest that the level of distortion of world agricultural markets has been far higher than suggested by the global average NRA or CTE, especially during the 1970s and 1980s, but it was considerably less distorted by 2007 than it was in 1960.

There would be high returns to further research in this area. In a companion paper, we estimate global TRIs and WRIs for individual commodities and show the contributions of different countries to those indexes (Lloyd, Croser and Anderson 2009). The estimates could be refined by relaxing the assumption of equal demand and supply elasticities across products within a country. This would entail a move to ‘marginal welfare weights’, instead of
Policy Research Working Paper 6828

# **Abstract**

The principal focus in the substantial literature on impediments to economic development has been on the inadequacies of policies and governance. However, successful economic development requires effectiveness of markets and incentives for investment, which in turn require trust. This paper reports on trust in a development context. The paper uses trust experiments, a post-experiment survey, and econometric analysis relating trust to identity and other personal attributes in the setting of Montenegro, a small, recently-independent, post-socialist, post-crisis society. External validity was sought by providing sufficient material reward to balance identity-related expressive motives and by having two groups of subjects, one usual university students and another group that, while also students, was somewhat older and had had greater market or commercial experience. The paper reviews cultural priors that can be expected to affect trust and distinguishes between generalized trust that can be socially beneficial and particularized trust that can be disadvantageous for development. The empirical results suggest that trust among private individuals is not an impediment to development in Montenegro. As a result, policy reform can improve economic and social outcomes. However, the results redirect the focus to issues of governance and political entrenchment as potential explanations for impediments to development.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank. org. The corresponding author may be contacted at zbogetic@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
# How Financial Markets Affect Long-Run Growth: A Cross-Country Study

by Ejaz Ghani

# Table of Contents

|1.|Introduction|2|
|---|---|---|
|2.|Indicators of Financial Policy and Financial Development|6|
|3.|Financial Markets and Growth|15|
|4.|Policy Change and Growth|20|
|5.|Conclusions|23|
|Appe|ndix 1: Definitions<br>of Variables|25|
|Appe|ndix 2: Mean and Standard Deviation of Variables|27|
|Appe|ndix 3: List of Countries in Sample|28|
|Refe|rences|29|
expected to react negatively to the lower hypothetical amount of 50,000. One potential explanation for this lack of a dose-response relationship is that the lottery amounts tested were all sufficiently high (Tsh100,000 is equal to approximately 40 percent of mean annual income in the study population) that virtually all respondents would be motivated by the prospect of winning. Indeed, in-depth focus group responses suggested that many individuals in this context failed to calculate the relevant expected value (few have completed schooling beyond the primary level), and thus were likely making cognitive errors that led to greater salience of the lottery than would be rationally expected. Although we must be cautious in not over-interpreting these self-reported ―motivation‖ questions, and should await publication of further results from the more objective STI endpoints, this evidence does suggest that a lottery-based incentive system may be acceptable within this community and possibly be more cost-effective than a system of certain rewards.

# **Discussion**

Cash incentives have been shown to be effective at shaping behavior in a variety of health domains, from improving the uptake of health and educational services among the poor, to discouraging unhealthy or risky behaviors, such as substance abuse, smoking, and over-eating. These successes inevitably raise the question of whether they can also be applied in areas of sexual and reproductive health beyond contraception (Mauldon, 2003; Weeden et al., 1986), and in particular to HIV prevention (Haug and Sorenson, 2006). A review of countries‘ experiences with CCT programs for poverty alleviation and CM provides useful insights into how to design, implement and evaluate a CCTbased STI/HIV prevention intervention. The particular experience of the RESPECT study finds that such a program can be designed to be efficacious and acceptable.

Table 5 reports enrollee responses to questions regarding perceived success of the trial and which dimensions of the trial they liked and did not like. Although such responses must be interpreted cautiously in light of possible social desirability bias (not wanting to offend the interviewer) – indeed there is some variation in responses across questions – overall the study appears to be highly acceptable and valued by the study population. This is perhaps not surprising given the substantial amount of cash delivered 23
||PPR<br>Title|Working Paper Series<br>Autii|Date|Contact|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|WPS25|AComparison<br>of Alternative<br>Training<br>Modes for Youth in Israel: Results<br>from Longitudinal<br>Data|Adrian Ziderman|July 1988|W. Ketema<br>33651|
|WPS26|Changing Patterns In Vocational<br>Educatic'n|John Middleton|July 1988|W. Ketema<br>33651|
|WPS27|Family Background and Student<br>Achievement|Marlaine E. Lockheed<br>Bruce Fuller<br>Ronald Nyirongo|<br>July 1988|R. Rinaldi<br>33278|
|WPS28|Temporary Windfalls and Compensation<br>Arrangemeots|Bela Balassa|June 1988|N. Campbell<br>33769|
|WPS29|The Relative Effectiveness<br>of<br>Single-Sex and Coeducational<br>Schools<br>itThailand|Emmanuel Jimenez<br>Marlaine E. Lockheed|August 1988<br>|T. Hawkins<br>33678|
|WPS30|The Adding Up Problem|Bela Balassa|July 1988|N. Campbell<br>33769|
|WPS31|Public Finance and Economic Developmen|t Bela Balassa|August 1988|N. Campbell<br>33769|
|WPS32|Municipal Development<br>Funds and<br>Intermediaries|Kenneth Davey|July 1988|R. Blade-Chnares<br>33754|
|WPS33|Fiscal Policy in Commodity-<br>Exporting LDCs|John Cuddington|July 1988|R. Blade-Charest<br>33754|
|WPS34|Fiscal Issues in Macroeconomic<br>Stabilization|Lance Taylor|||
|WPS35|<br>Improving<br>the Allocation<br>and Manage-<br>ment of Public Spending: Some<br>Lessons of African Experience|S+ephen Lister|||
|WPS36|Means and Implications<br>of Social<br>Security Finance in Developing<br>Countries|Douglas J. Puffert|August 1988|R. Blade-Charest<br>33754|
Table 1: Aggregate results across areas (FGT1)

||1|2|3|4|5|6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Model _R_<sup>2</sup>|<0.01|~0.42|~0.42|~0.42|~0.42|~0.46|
|_K_|2|6|6|6|6|6|
|_σηc_|_N_(0_,_0_._15<sup>2</sup>)<br>|_N_(0_,_0_._15<sup>2</sup>)<br>|_N_(0_,_0_._07<sup>2</sup>)<br>|_N_(0_,_0_._15<sup>2</sup>)<br>|_N_(0_,_0_._15<sup>2</sup>)<br>|_N_(0_,_0_._15<sup>2</sup>)<br>|
|_σech_|_N_(0_,_0_._5<sup>2</sup>)|_N_(0_,_0_._5<sup>2</sup>)|_N_(0_,_0_._5<sup>2</sup>)|Student’s t*|_N_(0_,_0_._5<sup>2</sup>)|_N_(0_,_0_._5<sup>2</sup>)|
|Pov. threshold|12|10.2|10.2|10.2|10.2|10.2|
|_nc_|50|50|50|50|50|10|
|_Nc_|20,000|20,000|20,000|20,000|100,000|100,000|
|**Direct estimates**|||||||
|AAB (x100)|0.031|1.180|1.183|1.721|1.556|3.744|
|AARB (x100)|33.000|17.446|17.212|16.538|20.101|43.347|
|ARMSE (x100)|1.269|2.417|2.404|2.386|2.835|5.143|
|ARRMSE (x100)|43.114|21.661|21.116|18.466|24.823|47.335|
|**ELL**|||||||
|AAB (x100)|0.155|0.450|0.175|2.363|Not run|Not run|
|AARB (x100)|76.528|27.755|13.663|25.288|Not run|Not run|
|ARMSE (x100)|2.042|3.627|1.906|3.608|Not run|Not run|
|ARRMSE (x100)|510.106|39.350|17.824|28.903|Not run|Not run|
|**ELL - with conte**|**xt**||||||
|AAB (x100)|0.169|0.413|0.169|2.264|0.408|1.936|
|AARB (x100)|77.412|27.496|13.723|25.077|26.040|25.372|
|ARMSE (x100)|2.036|3.591|2.098|3.566|3.529|2.929|
|ARRMSE (x100)|448.674|38.957|19.679|28.715|36.171|28.378|
|**H3-CBEB (with **|**PSU)**||||||
|AAB (x100)|3.742|3.125|3.205|Not run|3.120|Not run|
|AARB (x100)<br>|157.127|32.002|30.199|Not run|30.554|Not run|
|ARMSE (x100)|3.888|3.503|3.481|Not run|3.484|Not run|
|ARRMSE (x100)|363.459|38.417|34.072|Not run|36.025|Not run|
|**H3-CBEB**|||||||
|AAB (x100)|3.737|3.123|3.205|Not run|Not run|3.383|
|AARB (x100)|176.202|35.250|30.726|Not run|Not run|36.295|
|ARMSE (x100)|3.879|3.707|3.507|Not run|Not run|3.840|
|ARRMSE (x100)|577.523|45.157|35.216|Not run|Not run|40.608|
|**H3-CensusEB**|||||||
|AAB (x100)|0.007|0.014|0.012|1.272|0.013|1.590|
|AARB (x100)|26.387|11.170|9.755|12.959|10.550|19.432|
|ARMSE (x100)|0.932|1.560|1.372|1.739|1.542|2.319|
|ARRMSE (x100)|63.121|14.668|12.586|14.300|13.590|21.818|

AAB: Average absolute bias; AARB: Average absolute relative bias; ARMSE: Average root MSE; ARRMSE: Average relative root MSE. ***** Student’s _t_ distribution with 5 degrees of freedom and scaled by 0.5 30
non-PHC villages were interviewed by a senior<sup>field assistailt</sup> using a special questionnaire developed initially<sup>on the North</sup> Bank and at Basse for the ascertainment of<sup>the likely cause of</sup> death. This form was then examined independently<sup>by three</sup> physicians familiar with the area and with<sup>the symptoms of tne</sup> main causes of death in the area. Each then<sup>decided on the</sup> principal cause of death using whatever information<sup>wLs on the</sup> form or on attachments to it. These attachments<sup>often included</sup> the child health card, sometimes a record<sup>of treatment for a</sup> prior illness, and occasionally a report<sup>from a clinic or a</sup> hospital if the child had been taken there before<sup>death. In</sup> 43.4% of the 318 valid cases, all three physicians<sup>agreed on the</sup> nain cause of death for the children of all ages<sup>who had died</sup> during the period of the intervention. In 93.4%<sup>of all valid</sup> cases, two of the physicians were in agreement.<sup>On four main</sup> causes, acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea/malnutrition, acute gastro-enteritis and tetanus, the agreeiaent<sup>between the</sup> three physicians was over 50 per cent. For malaria,<sup>they agreed</sup> in 44% of cases. It turned out that the most difficult<sup>cases</sup> were neonates or children under six months; in almost<sup>a third of</sup> the cases of deaths under six months, a final<sup>cause of death</sup> could not be determined. Recognizing these difficulties<sup>and</sup> indeed the problems of post-mortem cause of death<sup>ascertainment</sup> without a hospital autopsy, the three physicians<sup>then conferred</sup> with all the evidence before them. Overall, a<sup>final diagnosis</sup> was agreed upon for 73% of the cases, 66% for children<sup>who died</sup> at 6 months of age or older. It is this final<sup>diagnosis agreed</sup> between the three physicians which is used here.

# RESULTS

# Childhood mortality

The routinely collected surveillance data can<sup>be used quite</sup> readily to estimate childhood mortality for the two<sup>years, before</sup> and after the interventions. The only difficult<sup>feature is the</sup> estimation of the denominators, the children at risk,<sup>since there</sup> 7
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- Meyiwa, T., et al. 2014. "Women in selected rural municipalities: Resilience and agency against vulnerabilities to climate change." _Agenda: Empowering Women for Gender Equity_ 28(3): 102-114.

Miguel, E. 2005. "Poverty and witch killing." _Review of Economic Studies_ 72(4): 1153-1172.

- Mueller, V., C. Gray, and K. Kosec. 2014. “Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan.” _Nature climate change_ 4(3): 182-185.

- Neumayer, E., and T. Plümper. 2007. "The gendered nature of natural disasters: The impact of catastrophic events on the gender gap in life expectancy, 1981–2002." _Annals of the association of American Geographers_ 97(3): 551-566.

- Nico, G., and C. Azzarri. 2022. “Weather variability and extreme shocks in Africa: Are female or male farmers more affected?” _International Food Policy Research Institute Discussion Paper_ 02115.

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25
effect on the ratio between the Expenses to Assets (ETA) and the Financial Expenses to Sales (GFSAL)).

**Table 5. CIT Incentives and Firm-Level Outcome Indicators, Fixed-Effects Estimation**

|Variables|(1)<br>Liquidity|(2)<br>ETA|(3)<br>GFSAL|(4)<br>ROA|(5)<br>Equity<br>Ratio|(6)<br>Capitalizatio<br>n|(7)<br>Turnover|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Tax|45.41*|32,900**|5,936***|47,718**|49,272**|27,158**|5.427*|
||(23.67)|(15,792)|(1,473)|(22,777)|(23,677)|(12,935)|(3.063)|
|Average Wage|40.76*|1,432*|-2,943*|2,072**|1,945|1,177*|6.688**|
||(22.24)|(705.4)|(1,623)|(1,009)|(1,225)|(581.4)|(2.996)|
|Equipment|-248.5*|177.9*|-6,031|267.8*|441.2***|147.3*|-0.295*|
||(130.6)|(101.2)|(3,764)|(157.2)|(141.7)|(82.86)|(0.171)|
|Building|-110.4*|161.9|2,170*|248.5|242.0|133.6|0.00268|
||(57.04)|(118.5)|(1,114)|(178.2)|(178.8)|(97.40)|(0.195)|
|Urban Land|9.340*|56.63***|-738.8*|74.14***|88.23***|46.68***|0.555|
||(4.942)|(20.41)|(396.3)|(24.28)|(29.07)|(16.67)|(0.650)|
|Constant|3,942**|-32,489*|113,209*|-47,189*|-50,162*|-26,768*|-56.54*|
||(1,788)|(18,846)|(64,725)|(27,191)|(27,286)|(15,484)|(30.69)|
|Observations|109,383|114,223|43,340|112,240|114,223|114,223|45,122|
|R-squared|0.000|0.000|0.001|0.000|0.000|0.000|0.001|
|Number of||||||||
|Enterprises|13,612|14,017|11,927|13,880|14,017|14,017|12,169|
|Method|FE|FE|FE|FE|FE|FE|FE|

_Notes._ The treatment variable is the tax incentive. The independent variables are the average value of wage, the value of equipment, the value of building and the value of urban land. Standard errors are reported in parenthesis. *** Significant at the 1 percent level. ** Significant at the 5 percent level. * Significant at the 10 percent level 16
# **I.  Introduction**

Twenty years ago the common image of India was one of a vast, populous country blessed with a vibrant democracy but afflicted by a highly rigid social structure, low levels of human development, widespread and deep consumption poverty, and doomed to eternal economic underperformance. Recent decades have seen some significant changes to that image. Following economic reforms first introduced during the 1980s and continued in subsequent years, India has raced towards the top of the world league tables in terms of aggregate economic performance. There is little doubt that the newly unleashed Indian economy has settled into a new, more rapid, growth trajectory. While future crises may unfold and growth may falter, a return to the sclerotic old days seems unlikely. Indeed, on the economic front the country now faces problems that are linked to success: moving to the next generation of reforms to sustain growth and expanding the benefits of rapid growth—across sectors, regions, and people.

Economic growth is only a means, not an end. It is critical that rising incomes and new opportunities ushered in by a reinvigorated economy translate into welfare improvements. Historically, India’s performance in poverty reduction has been rather disappointing. As a share of the population, poverty during the pre-reform decades declined at a pace that was steady, but slow. In the face of ongoing overall population growth it proved very difficult to significantly reduce the total number of people suffering from staggering levels of material deprivation. A question of central importance has thus been whether the newly galvanized Indian economy heralds also a decisive break with the past in the domain of poverty reduction. This question has engaged a large community of researchers and analysts during recent decades.

This paper focuses on rural areas and presents evidence from household surveys to ask whether, and how, rural living standards have improved significantly over time. Estimates of rural poverty from four large-scale surveys carried out in 1983, 1987/8, 1993/4 and 2004/5 indicate that there has been modest progress but with no suggestion of an acceleration in the pace of poverty reduction in rural India alongside the acceleration of economic growth during this period. There is considerable variation both across and within states which we exploit to explore mechanisms underlying the observed patterns of poverty reduction.

2