rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
TableA.2: Land market restrictions and wages: OLS Regression Results

||1|2<br>Rea|3<br>l Annual wa|4<br>ge|5|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|% Area Under LDO|**-0.493**|**-0.366**|**-0.542**|**-0.435**|**-0.633**|
||**(3.07)*****|**(2.53)****|**(3.37)*****|**(3.02)*****|**(4.18)*****|
|Area LDO*Travel Time|**0.135**|**0.094**|**0.122**|**0.095**|**0.093**|
||**(3.90)*****|**(2.90)*****|**(3.51)*****|**(2.92)*****|**(2.69)*****|
|Travel Time to Large City|-0.049|-0.042|-0.046|-0.042|-0.042|
||(8.25)***|(6.94)***|(7.62)***|(6.95)***|(6.10)***|
|Area of DSD|2.667|2.886|2.149|2.695|2.048|
||(2.44)**|(2.67)***|(2.02)**|(2.48)**|(1.74)*|
|% area >1000 feet of elevation|0.180|0.163|0.211|0.174|0.062|
||(3.95)***|(3.58)***|(4.44)***|(3.74)***|(0.75)|
|P. vivax (current malaria cases)||0.043||0.061|0.193|
|||(0.42)||(0.61)|(1.58)|
|% of lab. Forc. w. education>= primary||0.378||0.372|0.187|
|||(3.84)***||(3.75)***|(1.68)*|
|% of area under inland water bodies|0.138|0.121|0.142|0.129|0.093|
||(2.65)***|(2.47)**|(2.71)***|(2.62)***|(1.72)*|
|Land quality (% Excellent for paddy prod. )|||0.116|0.101|0.055|
||||(1.85)*|(1.79)*|(0.63)|
|Land quality (% Very good for paddy prod.)|||0.037|0.057|0.058|
||||(0.69)|(1.14)|(0.88)|
|Log( Education Level (yr))||0.224||0.224|0.224|
|||(16.73)***||(16.77)***|(17.12)***|
|Log(Age)||0.007|-0.085|0.009|0.014|
|||(0.32)|(3.70)***|(0.40)|(0.59)|
|Male||0.208|0.224|0.209|0.208|
|||(15.10)***|(15.93)***|(15.12)***|(15.26)***|
|Married (yes=1)||0.150|0.150|0.148|0.145|
|||(10.24)***|(10.05)***|(10.17)***|(10.04)***|
|Christian (yes=1)||0.029|0.113|0.021|-0.032|
|||(0.65)|(2.48)**|(0.47)|(0.69)|
|Muslim (yes=1)||-0.153|-0.073|-0.161|-0.218|
|||(1.25)|(0.58)|(1.31)|(1.78)*|
|Buddist (yes=1)||-0.049|0.060|-0.055|-0.074|
|||(1.33)|(1.56)|(1.49)|(2.07)**|
|Moor (yes=1)||0.201|0.191|0.200|0.231|
|||(1.66)*|(1.55)|(1.65)*|(1.91)*|
|Estate (yes=1)|0.033|0.070|0.072|0.067|0.072|
||(1.06)|(1.80)*|(1.74)*|(1.72)*|(1.86)*|
|Manufacturing (yes=1)|0.466|0.390|0.458|0.390|0.398|
||(18.71)***|(16.09)***|(18.23)***|(16.07)***|(16.73)***|
|Unskilled Services (yes=1)|0.148|0.086|0.108|0.084|0.107|
||(5.64)***|(3.43)***|(4.10)***|(3.38)***|(4.38)***|
|Skilled Services (yes=1)|0.946|0.784|0.927|0.783|0.796|
||(40.18)***|(32.83)***|(38.63)***|(32.76)***|(33.57)***|
|Share of agri in total employment|-0.191|-0.047|-0.291|-0.045|-0.051|
||(2.97)***|(0.57)|(4.14)***|(0.54)|(0.58)|
|Observations|12363|12363|12363|12363|12363|
|District Fixed Effect|no|no|no|no|Yes|

Robust t statistics in parentheses. Standard errors corrected for clustering

* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%
been participating in the labor force. Therefore, under the Trabajar and Plan Jefes y Jefas programs, about half of the employment gain came from unemployed workers, and the other half arose from inactive workforce participants.

Latvia’s public works program is an interesting case study. First, Latvia launched and implemented a public works program in response to a global financial crisis. Second, Latvia provides lessons on how public works programs can respond to a significant deterioration in labor market conditions. Third, relatively few public works program evaluations exist for upper-middle income countries (Latvia is an upper-middle income country) compared to low-income and lower-middle income countries.

This paper evaluates Latvia’s WWS program as a crisis response safety net instrument. Subject to data constraints and other restrictions, this paper complements other studies by evaluating the targeting performance of the WWS program and the effectiveness of the WWS program as a crisis mitigation instrument. The paper relies primarily on a unique household survey administered to 3,000 households during December 2010 - March 2011.

The findings of the paper are as follows. First, WWS targeted the poor households very well. Second, WWS was successful at increasing short-term household incomes by 37 percent relative to similar households not benefiting from the program, and helped those households to cope with the crisis. Third, the foregone income was low, and some of the foregone income is accounted for by loss of other safety net payments suggesting that the WWS did not replace other labor opportunities. The WWS program increased household income by LVL 67 while the actual WWS payment was LVL 100 per month. Thus, the Latvian WWS program experience highlights the usefulness of public works programs as short-term safety net instruments during times of crisis, even in upper-middle income countries.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 1.1 presents an overview of the WWS program; Section 2 describes the data used in this paper; Section 3 outlines the methodology used to evaluate the WWS program’s targeting performance and impacts; Section 4 presents results of targeting performance and short-term program impacts on 4
**Table 9: Ratio of All Students to Filled Teaching Positions**

||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|
|---|---|---|---|---|
||OLS|FE|FE + Controls Ex|cludingMultan + Khanewal|
|Stipend District|-4.111***<br>(0.272)||||
|2004|1.598***|1.413***|3.158***|3.077***|
||(0.156)|(0.149)|(0.823)|(0.878)|
|2005|2.482***|2.233***|3.979***|3.877***|
||(0.175)|(0.168)|(0.832)|(0.887)|
|2006|4.167***|3.856***|3.825***|3.665***|
||(0.219)|(0.212)|(0.216)|(0.223)|
|2007|1.399***|1.004***|0.982***|0.670***|
||(0.184)|(0.176)|(0.183)|(0.190)|
|2008|1.162***|0.658***|0.629**|0.361|
||(0.197)|(0.186)|(0.195)|(0.202)|
|Stipend District * 2004|1.697***|1.728***|1.714***|1.941***|
||(0.218)|(0.207)|(0.207)|(0.220)|
|Stipend District * 2005|3.042***|2.914***|2.900***|3.033***|
||(0.246)|(0.236)|(0.236)|(0.249)|
|Stipend District * 2006|4.556***|4.431***|4.429***|4.707***|
||(0.315)|(0.304)|(0.304)|(0.322)|
|Stipend District * 2007|6.037***|5.681***|5.679***|6.109***|
||(0.277)|(0.259)|(0.259)|(0.273)|
|Stipend District * 2008|5.934***|5.478***|5.474***|5.770***|
||(0.299)|(0.276)|(0.276)|(0.292)|
|Number of Basic Facilities = 1|||1.429|1.394|
||||(0.867)|(0.927)|
|Number of Basic Facilities = 2|||1.865*|1.839*|
||||(0.835)|(0.892)|
|Number of Basic Facilities = 3|||1.776*|1.785*|
||||(0.820)|(0.877)|
|Constant|31.15***|29.86***|28.12***|28.17***|
||(0.193)|(0.0907)|(0.823)|(0.880)|
|Observations|70160|70160|70160|65562|
|Number of Schools||12168|12168|11380|
|Adjusted R-squared|0.017|0.049|0.049|0.048|
|R-square within||0.0494|0.0496|0.0483|

* p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001. Standard errors in parentheses are robust to heteroskedasticity and clustered at the level of the school. The dependent variable is the ratio of students in a given school to filled teaching posts. The average school in a treatment district school at baseline had a ratio of 34. Sample excludes mosque and primary schools. Column 1 reports estimates from an OLS specification. Column 2 reports estimates from a fixed effects specification at the school level. Column 3 adds a series of indicators for how many of the following three facilities a school has: toilets, drinking water and electricity. The excluded group is no facilities. The excluded year is 2003. Column 4 removes two districts whose treatment status was interchanged: Khanewal and Multan.

47
LSMS surveys are both smaller-about 3,500 households each, in 199 districts (in 1994) and 228 districts (in 1997)-but they have the advantage that a very similar questionnaire was applied in both years. The LSMS includes a panel covering just over a quarter of the households in the two samples.

The LSMS and INEI surveys are useful for the analysis of targeting and impact in two ways. All of the surveys include district-level identifiers for every household. Household-level information from the surveys can therefore be linked to geographic information on allocations and expenditures kept by FONCODES. In addition, the 1996 INEI survey includes questions about benefits from various social programs. Specifically, households who had at least one member attending a public school were asked about recent improvements in school facilities, and whether these had been carried out by (separately) FONCODES, the educational infrastructure program INFES, or the local parents' committee. Respondents in the 1996 INEI survey were also asked whether any household member currently benefited from a feeding or nutrition program carried out by one of 14 organizations, including FONCODES' school breakfast program.

We use the household surveys to construct various education outcome measures, including school attendance rates, measures of the number of years of schooling passed for a given age, and the average amount of time it takes children in a household to get to school, as well as householdlevel covariates, such as the age, gender, ethnicity, and education of other household members. Because these surveys were not designed specifically for an evaluation of FONCODES, however, they also have shortcomings for our analysis. Three limitations are worth noting. First, none of the surveys collected information on the quality of education, including measures such as the amount of time spent in school, pupil-teacher ratios, and scholastic achievement. Second, there appears to be a large amount of measurement error in the FONCODES "treatment" variable in the 1996 INEI survey. Third, questions about benefits from FONCODES programs in the 1996 INEI survey were asked only of families with children in school. They cannot therefore be used to determine whether children _not_ in school had access to a FONCODES-improved school. We further discuss the way in which each of these limitations affects our analysis in sections 5 and 6 below.

# **4. Previous evaluations of FONCODES**

Since 1994, Apoyo, an external public research NGO in Peru, has conducted five ex-post evaluations of FONCODES community-based projects. These evaluations have included interviews with FONCODES beneficiaries, members of the _nucleo ejecutor,_ project operators, and officials in FONCODES' regional and central offices. Beneficiaries and others in the sample generally rated the impact of FONCODES investments to be positive (for a summary, see World 6
Laboratories. Recent definitions of "scientific literacy" emphasize the acquisition of a scientific world view that values, among other things, the rational understanding of phenomena and the development of scientific habits of mind (Murnane and Raizen, 1988). Development of these habits is believed to be assisted by laboratory or laboratory-like instruction. Research on the achievement effects of laboratories in develop3d countries, however, fail to confirm this expectation. An extensive review of laboratory effects (Blosser 1980, cited in Haddad 1986) concludes that there is insufficient evidence to confirm the effects of laboratory work on science learning. Similarly, Hofstein and Lunetta (1982) note that "research has failed to show simplistic relationships between experiences in the laboratory and student learning." Despite their apparent ineffectiveness, the demand for laboratories for science instruction is great in developing countries. For example, Mundangepfupfu (1985) notes that the requirement for experimental work in ,he science examinations offered by the Cambridge Examination Syndicate largely results from requests from third world ministries of education and headmasters. Research on the achievement effects of laboratories in developing countries is inconclusive, but tends to follow that from developed countries. In their reanalysis of IEA and ECIEL data, Heyneman and Loxleg (1983) found that the number of students in laboratory classes and the time spent in laboratory classrooms or on laboratory work were related to achievement in India, Thailand, Argentina and Iran. However, laboratory use was unrelated to achievement in all six Latin American countries that participated in the ECIEL study (Heyneman and Loxley, 1983).

7
# **Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices: Literature Review and a Model Suite**

Francisco Arroyo-Marioli, Jeetendra Khadan, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Takefumi Yamazaki<sup>*</sup> _Keywords:_ Oil price; metal price; commodity prices; forecasting. _JEL Codes:_ F10; F41; Q02; Q40; Q41; Q47.

> ***** Arroyo-Marioli: World Bank, Prospects Group; farroyomarioli@worldbank.org; Khadan: World Bank, Prospects Group; jkhadan@worldbank.org; Ohnsorge: World Bank, Prospects Group; and CAMA; fohnsorge@worldbank.org. Yamazaki: World Bank, Prospects Group; tyamazaki@worldbank.org. We thank John Baffes, Christiane Baumeister, Marek Kwas, Peter Nagle, Pablo Pincheira-Brown and many colleagues at the World Bank Group for helpful suggestions and comments on our background work for this paper. Kaltrina Temaj and Muneeb Naseem provided excellent research assistance. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the institutions they are affiliated with.
<!-- Start of picture text --> Graph 2 ‐ Rationale<br>30<br>24<br>25<br>20<br>15 12<br>10<br>6<br>5<br>5<br>0<br>Monitor/oversee Determine Determine the net Other<br>over financial mismatches worth<br>position between A/L<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Note: Multiple responses were permitted, and the total is therefore superior to the number of respondents._ Source: Responses to SALM survey Overall the results confirm that sovereign ALM is just one of several objectives of producing a sovereign balance sheet, as reflected by only six countries (25 percent of the respondents to this question) mentioning the determination of mismatches between assets and liabilities as a rationale. It is a reminder of the limited number of countries where ALM considerations are integrated into the assessment of macroeconomic / fiscal policies and in the decision‐making process within the public sector.

It is difficult to see how the determination of sovereign net worth, mentioned twice as often as a rational of the balance sheet, could be of value for implementing ALM practices. The net worth of the sovereign is a value at a point in time which may not be fully relevant for long‐term sustainability. Moreover, it could include theoretical valuation of very illiquid assets that may not be used to cover future expenditures, or it may miss significant contingent liabilities that could undermine fiscal sustainability. In addition, in most cases,<sup>12</sup> the net worth of a sovereign does not take into account the value of future taxes (i.e. the capacity of the sovereign to raise taxes in the future) as well as the value of future expenditures that are unavoidable. It is indeed difficult to assess with precision these elements as they are based on various assumptions (what is the long‐term level of taxes that economic agents in a country will accept to pay, which expenses can be cut without threatening the social fabric, etc.).

> 12 Among the respondents to the survey, only Canada indicated publishing such information on a regular basis.

10
# WPS4086

Patient Satisfaction, Doctor Effort and Interview Location:

## Evidence from Paraguay

Jishnu Das (World Bank)<sup>1</sup> Thomas Pave Sohnesen (World Bank)

### **Abstract**

To examine the relationship between patient satisfaction and doctor performance, we observed 2,271 interactions between 292 doctors and their patients in 98 clinics and hospitals in Paraguay and conducted an exit-survey with the same patients as they left the clinic. For a sub-sample of 64 facilities we also tracked down and interviewed patients who visited the facility in the week prior to the clinical observation date. There are three patterns in the data: (a) Patient satisfaction is positively correlated with doctor effort, measured as a combination of time spent, questions asked and examinations performed after controlling for observed doctor and patient characteristics; (b) however, accounting for unobserved doctor characteristics dramatically reduces the level of significance and size of correlation between effort and satisfaction, showing that much of the positive relationship is driven by these unobserved doctor-specific factors and; (c) reported satisfaction is significantly lower for patients interviewed at home compared to those interviewed at the clinic. Even if patient satisfaction reflects some aspects of the doctor’s performance, unobserved heterogeneity combined with survey biases limit the widespread applicability of patient satisfaction as an indicator of doctor performance.

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4086, December 2006 _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> 1 Corresponding Author: <u>jdas1@worldbank.org. The data collection for this paper was conducted as part of</u> a World Bank study on health in Paraguay, led by Daniel Dulitzky (World Bank) and the data was collected by CIRD, Asuncion. In addition we thank, without implicating, Ken Leonard for extensive discussions and Ariel Fiszbein and Jesko Hentschel for comments and suggestions.

1
# **1 Overview**

A primary objective of active labor market policy is to shape a workforce that matches and continuously upgrades the skill distribution to the evolving labor demand of enterprises. Vocational training programs remain among the most common incarnation of active labor market policies despite a sizable historical literature providing only mixed evidence as to their effectiveness (Card et al. (2015), Kluve (2010), and Heinrich et al. (2013), among others). Betcherman et al. (2004) provide an early synthesis of research of over 150 evaluations of active labor market programs, suggesting a cautious approach in what such policies can “realistically achieve.” Whether the design of publicly-funded skills training can increase its effectiveness is particularly important for policymakers choosing whether to start, adapt, or abandon such programs. In this paper, we investigate the employment returns to a large-scale, publicly administered, technical skills training program in Brazil that explicitly takes input from firms in determining course offerings. To our knowledge, ours is the first study to evaluate a “demand-driven” training program in which firms provide direct input to the government as to the type, volume, and location of skills in demand by private-sector businesses. Because of the unique institutional setting, we then compare program effects to those of an otherwise-similar national skills training program run in parallel within the same institutional and logistical context. This allows us to more meaningfully gauge the potential for a demand-driven design to improve program effectiveness.

Using comprehensive monthly administrative panel data on employment, estimates controlling for individual-level unobservables suggest the program increased the employment rate of trainees by approximately two to three percentage points in the year following the course. To address the endogeneity of course completion, we use exogenous restrictions in course space availability across individuals to implement a difference-in-differences IV 1
It is also important to note the issue of cost. Reductions in tariffs and ad valorem equivalents of NTBs impose relatively few direct resource costs on central governments. However, for trade facilitation measures including those aimed at transparency, the cost implications are potentially larger. While we do not have sufficient information available to assess the costs in this case, we would simply highlight that when compared with other trade facilitation measures—such as upgrades of “hard” infrastructure—the cost of improving performance across the set of transparency measures we are dealing with here is likely to involve manageable levels of costs. The government actions required are often legal and administrative in character, along with equipment upgrades in some cases (e.g., e-government readiness), and are therefore unlikely to involve costs on the level of, for instance, a port or road network upgrade. However, the nature of these actions also suggests an ongoing need for technical cooperation and capacity building, since the measures involved are often complex.<sup>20</sup>

# **5 Conclusions and Suggestions for Further Research**

This paper has drawn on a wide range of objective and perception-based indicators to develop new, quantitative measures of transparency in the trading environment. Our approach is grounded in the view that it is the full range of factors in a country’s trading environment that can influence exporters’ and importers’ incentives—which means that efforts to promote regional and global integration need to address policy reform across a number of areas, not limited to traditional trade policy measures such as tariffs. There is thus an important complementary role to be played by trade facilitation in the broad sense (Wilson et al., 2005).

Taking APEC as a case study, we have used these measures to provide some of the first quantitative evidence suggesting that increasing the transparency of the trading environment through greater predictability and simplification can be an important way of reducing trade costs. We have found that the impact from transparency reforms comes in

> 20 On the basis of six case studies, including one APEC member economy, McLinden (2006) reports that the costs of implementing improved trade facilitation may be smaller than previously thought. The improvements considered by the author, based on the possible contours of a future WTO agreement, would involve costs ranging from US$165,000 to US$1.3m per economy.

29