# _4.1.2 Demographics and the labor force_

As shown in Graph 8, registered Syrian refugees in neighboring countries numbered 5,663,675 at the end of 2018. A survey by UNCHR (2018) of a sample of 4,283 Syrian refugees in neighboring countries indicated that 76 percent intend to return to Syria one day. In the optimistic scenario of the voluntary mobility case, if we assume a 76 percent return rate, this would amount to 4.3 million returnees. We use the UN population statistics (United Nations 2017), which projects an average population growth of 2.5% over 2019‐2038 and builds in net migration into Syria of 4.21 million over 2020‐2035. Of this total, 66 percent return over 2020‐2025 (about 556,000 on average per year), 29 percent over 2025‐ 2030 (about 240,000 per year) and 5 percent over 2030‐2035 (about 46,000 per year).<sup>48,49</sup> For the moderate and pessimistic scenarios in the voluntary mobility case, we assume refugee return rates of 43 percent and 18 percent respectively based on the ratio of reconstruction‐related average funding per year in the first 10 years post conflict. For both these moderate and pessimistic scenarios, we still assume a similar time path as the optimistic scenario – with refugee returns rising to peak around 2023‐2024, and gradually moderating thereafter. Consequently, we obtain average population growth rates of 2.2 percent and 1.9 percent respectively over 2019‐2038 for the moderate and pessimistic scenarios. For all three scenarios in the forced repatriation case, we adjust the return rate to 100 percent (but keep the pattern of returns unchanged over time), thus giving us an average population growth rate of 2.7 percent over 2019‐2038.

We continue to draw on United Nations (2017) for projections of the working‐age population share, and ILO (2018) for LFPR projections – the latter is available until 2030, and so we keep the values thereafter stable at the 2030 level. The same working‐age population share and LFPR time series are used across all scenarios.

# _4.1.3 Human capital_

We follow the same approach as in Section 3.1.3. Changes in the average years of schooling are estimated based on shifts in the population (including the return of refugees) and improvements in enrollment rates. Where we reduce (voluntary mobility case – moderate and pessimistic scenarios) or increase refugee returns (forced repatriation case) compared to the UN statistics (voluntary mobility case – optimistic scenario), we apportion the adjustment to different age groups based on the UNHCR profile of the age distribution of refugees.

School destruction and/or non‐functioning schools are the key reasons for low enrollment rates (World Bank 2019). Further, displaced families will likely be hindered in their attempts to access education services. Since the prospects for reconstruction are relatively weak under the pessimistic scenario, we assume primary and secondary enrollment rates only return to pre‐conflict levels (93 and 67 percent respectively) by 2038, while the tertiary enrollment rate rises to 50 percent (from 36 percent) by that time. This timeline from the given initial levels is roughly in line with the trajectory of estimations/projections of enrollment ratios for developing countries in Barro and Lee (2015) (see their Chapter 3, Figure 3.5) and is longer than what Syria historically took to reach those rates.<sup>50</sup> We

> 48 In the UN population statistics, the net migration numbers are reported for the five‐year period between the middle of the respective bracketing years (for example, from mid‐2020 to mid‐2025).

> 49 From our calculations based on average births and deaths in the UN population statistics, this is in addition to about 112,000 inward migrants from mid‐2019 to mid‐2020, which gives us a total of 4.3 million returnees, or 76 percent of registered refugees residing in neighboring countries over 2019‐2035.

> 50 UNESCO UIS data for Syria indicate that the net primary enrollment rate rose from 81.9 percent in 1973 to 94.8 percent in 1987 (approximately 15 years) while the net secondary enrollment rate increased from 39.3 percent in 2000 to 66.9 percent in 2010 (approximately 10 years).

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