the regime.<sup>2</sup> The coalescing of these various groups and interests makes the situation, and return prospects, in northern Syria incredibly complex. Turkey has faced a lack of stability and domestic political strife over the influx of refugees since 2011, yet as the situation draws on many seem less likely to return. In 2017 the annual Syrians Barometer poll conducted by Murat Erdoğan indicated that 17% of Syrians would not return under any conditions, and in 2019 this had increased to 52% (Erdogan (2019)). Many more indicate they would only return if the war ended and a governance structure which they favored was put into place. In order to stem the flow of refugees, and in some instances force return, Turkey has taken strong offensive actions which limit international humanitarian aid through both stifling opportunity and igniting humanitarian concerns over treatment of Kurds.<sup>3</sup> In many areas governing and aid provision are overseen by the governors of neighboring Turkish provinces (Hoffman and Makovsky (2021), Al-Hilu (2019)). In Idlib, most of the structure is provided by former Al-Qa’eda affiliated Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, with some collaboration with Turkey. The segmentation of areas of control and the closure of border crossings other than Bab al-Hawa make the work of humanitarian actors in Syria quite difficult. Many actors have channeled aid for their own purposes to control goods provision, and the burden of provisioning aid falls overwhelmingly on Syrian workers who may also be targets for attack (Hall and Todman (2021)). Though satisfaction with the impact of humanitarian aid has increased, organizations still face challenges in regards to incorporating refugees into aid processes and decision making, funding local organizations who can target aid, and coordinating aid provision (Voluntas (2019)).

Since the defeat of ISIS by the International Coalition forces in Ar-Raqqa in October 2017 the war in Syria seems to be nearing its end. However, though 75% of displaced Syrians would like to one day return to their former homes (UNHCR (2019)), ongoing violence has resulted in continued displacement (NRC (2021)). Syrians in Damascus, especially the young and educated, indicate they would be interested in emigrating if the opportunity presented itself, but they are unable to do so for monetary and other reasons (Jalabi (2021)). Furthermore, desire to return is linked to strong ties with one’s home country and hometown, ties which are likely to erode the longer the war drags on and the longer individuals are displaced (Ghosn et al. (2021)). Return to Syria in general has been infrequent and selective, though better security and service access increases returns (Bank (2019)).

Within Syria some governorates including Deir-ez-Zour, Ar-Raqqa, and Al-Hasekah have lost a large share of their population (all over 25%) whereas others such as Idlib and Rural Damascus have gained inhabitants (Bank (2019)). In the 2015-2016 Syrian Refugees and Host Communities Surveys (SRHCS) most refugees reported less than a week to prepare to leave, with the majority ending up in a neighboring country (Krishnan (2020)). Refugees in neighboring countries are less likely to be highly educated, with only 1% having completed a university degree and most working in wage jobs and construction. In Lebanon, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture are the only sectors available for refugee employment. More Syrian men are able to work in Syria, but refugees have better access to resources than IDPs and residents in Syrian governorates with a high level of conflict. Conversely, refugee children often have worse access to education. Housing conditions in Syria are poor, especially in Idlib, and many returnees lack documents (Bank (2019)). More recently

> 2Documentation of U.S. sanctions on Syria `https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/ financial-sanctions/sanctions-programs-and-country-information/syria-sanctions` 3 “German NGO scraps Syria project over claims it would aid Turkey’s ethnic cleansing in Afrin,” `https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/ 23475-German-NGO-scraps-Syria-project-over-claims-it-would-aid-Turkey% 27s-ethnic-cleansing-in-Afrin` .

5