This paper contributes to the literature on geospatial data and displacement by combining remotely sensed data and IOM administrative data in Afghanistan, where timely, on-the-ground data can be hard to gather. Our study provides a deep dive into Badghis province, hard hit by the 2018 drought, by focusing on dynamics at the settlement level, the smallest administrative unit possible. Geospatial data offers a unique opportunity to track the evolution of indicators through time in hard-to-reach areas (e.g., due to conflicts and natural disasters). This work capitalizes on administrative data from IOM, which provides an exhaustive overview of the overall flow of displaced populations in the region at the settlement levels. Combining administrative data and satellite images illustrates the insights that can be gained in a data-scarce context.

# 3. The Data

## 3.1. Displacement and NTL data

This study exploits a unique set of data from IOM, the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM December 2020), to identify detailed displacement patterns in the Badghis region following the 2018 drought. The IOM data for this analysis corresponds to 4 rounds of Baseline Mobility Assessments (BMA) conducted in Badghis between January 2018 and December 2020. The information was collected at the settlement level through focus group interviews with Key Informants and includes information on settlements’ location (GPS) and inflows and outflows of the displaced population. These include both IDPs from other settlements, and returnees, former IDPs returning to their origin settlements. The DTM data is a detailed and unique source of information on displaced patterns in Afghanistan. Compared to Afghanistan Income Expenditure and Labor Force Surveys, the IOM dataset directly focuses on settlements with a mobile population, ensuring a full representation of displacement in the country. Compared to other humanitarian agencies such as the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), it is also the only source of information including IDPs (both from conflict and natural shocks), returnees from abroad and migrants, regardless of their legal status and reasons for displacement.<sup>1</sup> In addition, while UNOCHA supplies more frequent information on flows of internal displacement at the district level, the information cannot be disaggregated at the village level.

IOM did not collect data prior to the year 2018 in Badghis, suggesting that there was limited evidence of major displacement flows before then, hence justifying our focus on the 2018-2020 period.

Limitations in terms of measurement errors are nevertheless important to keep in mind and further make the case for better data on displacement in Afghanistan. Due to the absence of a clear definition of geospatial borders for IOM settlements, the possibility that settlement buffers could overlap cannot be excluded. This could bias the results if the weights of specific outcomes are artificially inflated by appearing multiple times in overlapping buffers for what should be a unique settlement. In other words, in denser areas, some of the buffers may overlap; hence the population summarized can be duplicated. Therefore, displacement numbers might also be overestimated by counting multiple times the same population. This, however, is not an important issue for our analysis, which focuses on the evolution of the displacement flows in settlements rather than absolute values. In addition, the survey relies on self-reported estimates, which can be associated with important measurement errors. There again, assuming that the bias remains constant throughout time, this issue is unlikely to affect the analysis dramatically.

The IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM December 2020) allowed us to identify 294 settlements in Badghis across the seven districts . As of December 2020, there were 294 settlements in Badghis for which IOM has collected data on inflows and outflows of persons (Figure 2).<sup>2</sup> Key indicators refer to IDP arrivals (Afghans who fled other settlements and presently reside in the assessed location), returning IDPs (previous IDPs who returned to their location of origin), returnees from abroad (Afghans who returned to Afghanistan after having spent at least six months

> 1 UNOCHA data only focuses on conflict-induced IDPs, while UNHCR data reports numbers for documented returns.

> 2 Out of these 294 settlements, IOM collected the first flow data in 2018 for 248 settlements, while 7 settlements started being surveyed in 2019, and 19 were first surveyed before June 2020, and 20 surveyed in December 2020. This indicates that, prior to these dates, there were no significant inflows of displaced population.

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