rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Cohen, Jeffrey, and Catherine Paul, 2004, "Public infrastructure investment, interstate spatial spillovers, and manufacturing costs." _Review of Economics and Statistics_ 86, 551-560.

Corbi, Raphael, Elias Papaioannou, and Pablo Surico, 2019, “Regional Transfer Multipliers” _Review of Economic Studies_ , 86, 1901-1934.

Demirci, Iran, Jennifer Huang, and Clemens Sialm, 2019, “Government Debt and Corporate Leverage: International Evidence” _Journal of Financial Economics_ , 133, 337-356.

Fatás, Antonio, and Lawrence Summers, 2018, “The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations” _Journal of International Economics,_ 112, 238-250.

Gennaioli, Nicola, Alberto Martin, and Stefano Rossi, 2014, “Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Financial Institutions” _Journal of Finance_ , 69, 819-866.

Ghosh, Parikshit, Dilip Mookherjee, and Drebraj Ray, 2000, “ <mark>Credit Rationing in Developing Countries: An Overview of the Theory”</mark> _Readings in the Theory of Economic Development_ , 383-401.

Graham, John, Mark Leary, and Michael Roberts, 2015, “A Century of Capital Structure: The Leveraging of Corporate America”, _Journal of Financial Economics_ , 118, 658-683.

Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Hanson, and Jeremy Stein, 2010. “A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice” _Journal of Finance,_ 65, 993-1028.

Guajardo, Jaime, Daniel Leigh, and Andrea Pescatori, 2014, “Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence” _Journal of the European Economic Association_ , 12, 949-68.

Hoffmann, Matias, Iryna Stewen, and Michael Stiefel, 2021. "Growing like Germany: Local Public Debt, Local Banks, Low Private Investment." _Working Paper 380, Department of Economics - University of Zurich_ .

House, Christopher, Christian Proebsting, and Linda Tesar, 2020, “Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession” _Journal of Monetary Economics_ , 115, 37-63.

Huang, Yi, Marco Pagano, and Ugo Panizza, 2020, “Local Crowding Out in China.” _Journal of Finance,_ 75, 2855-2898 _._ IMF, 2018, _Historical Public Debt Database._ IMF, 2020, _Fiscal Monitor._ INEGI, 2014, _Exportaciones por Entidad Federativa_ .

La Porta, Rafael, Florencio López-de-Silanes, and Guillermo Zamarripa, 2003, “Related Lending” _Quarterly Journal of Economics,_ 118, 231-268.

Kumhof, Michael and Ivan Tanner, 2005, “Government Debt: A Key Role in Financial Intermediation” _IMF Working Paper_ , _05/57._ 36
_Anios del Tratado de Libre Comrcio de Am6rica del Norte_ . Instituto Tecnol6gico Aut6nomo de Mexico, Mexico D.F.

- Von Wobeser, Claus (2000), " EL R6gimen Legal de la Inversi6n Extranjera en el TLCANy sus Efectos en los Flujos de Capital hacia M6xico," in Leycegui, Beatriz and Rafael Fernandez de Castro (editors), (2000), _Socios Naturales? Cinco Aiios del Tratado de Libre Comrcio de Am&rica del Norte ._ Instituto Tecnol6gico Aut6nomo de Mexico, Mexico D.F.

- Weiner, Joan (2000), "Institute for Fiscal Studies Issues Report on EU Corporate Tax Harmonization" _Tax Notes International,_ 22 May pp 2267-73.

- World Bank (2000), "Export Dynamics and Productivity: Analysis of Mexican Manufacturing in the 1990s," Draft Report, Mexico Country Department, Latin America and the Caribbean Region.

27
trends and an expected further decline in investment growth are projected to shave off 0.6 percentage point a year from potential output growth between 2011-21 and 2022-30.

In SSA, slower labor supply growth and capital accumulation in 2022-30 are expected to be partly offset by a modest pick-up in TFP growth reflecting accelerated per capita income catchup after the setbacks caused by multiple adverse shocks over the past decade, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The projected decline in potential growth in SSA is therefore milder than in EAP and ECA. It is mainly accounted for by South Africa and, in particular, by population aging and weak investment growth in that country: elsewhere in SSA potential growth is expected to remain broadly steady, at 4.6 percent a year.

Potential growth in LAC, MNA and SAR in 2022-30 is expected to be little changed, at the relatively weak rates of just over 2 percent per year in LAC and MNA and at a robust pace of more than 6 percent a year in SAR. TFP growth in LAC and MNA is expected to pick up, reflecting recoveries from the effects of the currency and debt crises of the past decade in some countries and modestly stronger investment growth in others, but this boost is expected to be offset by diminishing demographic dividends. The contribution of capital accumulation to potential growth in LAC and MNA is expected to be broadly unchanged, assuming no major intensification of geopolitical risks and uncertainty. In SAR, a slowdown in labor supply growth is expected to be largely offset by a pick-up in TFP growth related to the expected gains in educational attainment and agricultural productivity as well as still robust growth of investment.

# III. Risks to potential growth prospects: Downside scenario

Several adverse developments could deepen the slowdown in potential growth that is proiected in the baseline scenario. The investment growth forecasts underlying the baseline scenario could turn out to be overly optimistic. Natural disasters could increase in frequency and cause repeated shocks to output and productivity. A global recession in the near term could cause lasting setbacks to potential growth, in line with historical experience. Policy-induced improvements in such areas as education, healthcare, and female labor force participation could disappoint. This section examines the implications of each of these downside risks in turn.

If one of these risks materializes, potential growth could turn out lower than projected in the baseline, by 0.2-0.9 percentage point per year globally and 0.1-0.7 percentage point per year in EMDEs. This would be in keeping with the record of past long-term growth forecasts, which have had a significant optimism bias (Ho and Mauro 2016; Juhn and Loungani 2002; World Bank 2018c).
39. The following provides an overview of potential measures to improve the access to formal financial sector services for the low income population in Colombia. It draws on the areas for correction which became apparent from the supply and demand side analysis and potential regulatory steps, including experience from other countries.

# **4.1 REGULATORY MEASURES**

40. As the experience of other countries shows (Chapter 2, Box 2), regulation to enhance financial access can take various forms. Models such as the US Community Reinvestment Act track the extent which banks to provide specific services to low income communities. In this case, service provision is enhanced through detailed information and disclosure requirements, and affects approval on other matters, such as bank branches or mergers and acquisitions. Other measures include the provision of basic services, as in Germany, where banks provide a voluntary undertaking to open accounts to all clients under a few basic conditions. This is monitored by consumer protection associations with the right of appeal of clients who have been rejected by a bank. A middle-of-the-ground model, such as Canada, provides government guidelines or directives for the provision of basic account services to the poor, with enforcement through monitoring by a government agency.

41. In light of the low penetration of basic financial services, there are a number of initiatives that could help improve access to financial services in Colombia, from the enforcement of minimum service requirements that are already in the regulation, to the introduction of a basic account available to low income clients, or to encouraging that certain types of payments (such as pension payments and payroll) are done through bank accounts. Such basic accounts have been recently adopted elsewhere in Latin America, for example, in Brazil.

42. Given the extent of financial exclusion in Colombia as revealed in the Bogotá survey and banks’ risk-averse behavior following the crisis, it is unlikely that private banks will provide basic account services at their own initiative, and thus, Regulation could be catalyst. The Superintendencia Bancaria could support this by, for example, monitoring the share of basic accounts as a percentage of total accounts in defined lower income categories.

43. All of the initiatives will require the concerted efforts of the Colombian Bankers’ Association, as well as a continued dialogue within the banking sector, so that they can effectively lead to the acquisition of new profitable clients and the expansion of the banking sector.

44. Existing anti-money laundering regulation clearly is an impediment for the unbanked to access formal financial services. In particular, multiple account opening requirements could be reduced to one simple 63
Policy Research Working Paper 7566

# **Abstract**

What is the welfare effect of a price change? This simple question is one of the most relevant and controversial questions in microeconomic theory and its different answers can lead to severe heterogeneity in empirical results. This paper returns to this question with the objective of providing a general framework for the use of theoretical contributions in empirical works, with a particular focus on poor people and poor countries. Welfare measures (such as Equivalent - Variation or Consumer’s Surplus) and computational meth ods (such as Taylor’s approximations or the Vartia method) are compared to test how these choices result in different welfare measurement under different price shock scenarios. As a rule of thumb and irrespective of parameter choices, welfare measures converge to approximately the same result for price changes below 10 percent. Above this threshold, these measures start to diverge significantly. Budget shares play an important role in explaining such divergence, whereas the choice of demand system has a minor role. Under standard utility assumptions, the Laspeyers and Paasche variations are always the outer bounds of welfare estimates and consumer surplus is always the median estimate. The paper also introduces a new simple welfare approximation, clarifies the relation between Taylor’s approximations and the income and substitution effects, and provides an example for treating nonlinear pricing. Stata codes for all computations are provided in annex.

This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at Araar. Abdelkrim@ecn.ulaval.ca and pverme@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
educational establishment (for example, pre-primary, primary or high school) must send information on initial enrollment by grade, age and gender. Non-response is very low (less than 1%). Using this information it is possible to construct a panel at the communitycohort level. Unfortunately, we do not have access to data on measures of school readiness and learning performance among students in the sample. Counting with data on these dimensions would have allowed us to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the shortand medium-run effects of attending a pre-primary. Additionally, we have data on private pre-primaries and their exact location for 2005 but not for prior years.

We have also gained access to comprehensive data from the 1994 and 2002 Population Census. These data contain basic socioeconomic characteristics at the household and individual level. Importantly for our purposes, the geographic location of the household is identified at the community level, and it is possible to match communities from the 1994 to the 2002 Population Census. Additionally, the National Statistics Institute provides geo-coordinates for communities in the 2002 Population Census.

# **4 Research design**

## **4.1 Sample construction**

We focus on a sample of rural communities that had a primary school during the period of analysis. We exploit variation in access to pre-primaries across cohorts within communities to identify the impacts on enrollment and progression rates.

To be selected into the estimation sample, a rural community has to meet 4 conditions. First, it must have a population of between 300 and 2,500 in 2002. This condition ensures that rural communities under analysis are large enough to have a pre-primary school. Second, it needs to have one primary school operating during the 1995 to 2008 period. This makes it possible to measure impacts on enrollment and progression in primary school. Third, the community should not have other communities located within a 0.5 kilometers radius from its center This restriction reduces the likelihood that the opening of a pre-primary in one community might induce children from neighboring communities to start attending pre-primary education there.<sup>5</sup> Finally, the community must not have a pre-primary by 1997. This condition ensures that selected communities are homogeneous in terms of no baseline access to pre-primary education and allows us to inspect for the

> 5This type of spill-over effects would introduce a downward bias in the estimates. Their presence is minimized in this context because of the rugged geography and poor infrastructure that make it difficult for children in non-beneficiary communities to attend pre-primaries in treatment communities. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that cultural factors related to a strong sense of belonging to the community reduce the possibility of seeking services elsewhere. Finally, the fact that young children would have to travel by themselves to attend pre-primary school outside their community makes this possibility less likely. Still, in section 6.1 we explore whether the main findings could be affected by spill-over effects.

6
**Table 11 Gasoline Specification-Selected Developing Countries**

|**Country**|**R**<br>|**Proper**<br>**ON(Valu**<br>|**ty**<br>**e Min.)**<br>|**Sulfur(**<br>|**Property**<br>**mg/kg orp**<br>|<br>**pm, Max)**<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**Reg.**|**Prem.**|**Supreme**|**Reg.**|**Prem.**|**Supreme**|
|Bangladesh|80|95||1000|1000||
|India|88|93||1000|1000||
|Malaysia|92|97||1500|1500||
|Philippines|-|93||1000|-||
|Pakistan|80|87|97|2000|2000|2000|
|Thailand|87|95||1000|1000|1000|
|Kenya|83|93||500|500||
|Tanzania|87|95||1500|1500||
|Argentina|83|-||500|-||
|Bolivia|85|95||500|500||
|Colombia|81|87||1000|1000||
|El Salvador|87|95||1500|1500||
|Guatemala|87|95||1500|1500||
|Honduras|87|95||1500|1500||
|Mexico|-|95||250-300|250-300||
|Nicaragua|87|95||1000|1000||
|Panama|87|91||1000|1000||
|Paraguay|85|97||1000|1000||

Source: CONCAWE (2006) China is taking aggressive steps towards containing hazardous components in fuel. By 1998, the local government in Beijing successfully phased out leaded gasoline. At present, sulfur content ranges from 300 ppm to 500 ppm for gasoline and from 500 ppm to 800 ppm for diesel fuel in Beijing (Hao et. al., 2006). Since eliminating lead as an octane booster in gasoline is a relatively low cost measure with high returns in terms of public health, Gwalliam et al. (2004) suggested that it should be a high priority for all countries that have not yet eliminated lead from gasoline.

The emissions of sulfur dioxide from diesel used in heavy vehicles are one of the main environmental concerns in most countries around the world. Hence, these countries have imposed standards on the sulfur content of diesel. Table 12 presents existing or planned standards for the sulfur content of diesel in selected countries. As can be seen from the 30
**Table 6. Proportion of undergraduate and masters level courses using the following methods for assessing students’ performance**

||||||Unde<br>|rgraduate l<br>|evel<br>|||Masters level<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||LAC|SSA|MENA|EAP|ECA|SA|All<br>developing<br>countries|Top 20 US<br>economics<br>departments|Non-Top US<br>economics<br>departments|All<br>developing<br>countries|
|Class attendance|0.151|0.071|0.778***|0.556|0.500|0.308|0.260|0.250|0.125|0.295|
|Homework Assignments<br>that require students to<br>use theory and models<br>from class|0.057**|0.393|0.778***|0.222|0.250|0.154|0.220|0.250|0.125|0.295|
|Homework Assignments<br>that require students to<br>use statistical software|0.038***|<br>0.071***|0.111**|0.111**|0.167**|0.154**|0.087***|0.563|0.063***|0.180***|
|Written exam|0.736*|0.857|0.889|1.000|0.917|0.769|0.811|0.938|0.875|0.689**|
|Essay(s)|0.245|0.250|0.444|0.333|0.333|0.077|0.260|0.188|0.250|0.246|
|Empirical project|0.019**|0.214|0.111|0.111|0.167|0.154|0.102|0.188|0.000*|0.148|
|Presentation|0.302|0.286|0.444*|0.444*|0.667***|<br>0.154|0.339*|0.125|0.250|0.639***|
|Other type of assessment|0.642|0.286***|0.222**|0.556|0.500|0.538|0.488|0.688|0.813|0.590|
|# countries|15|14|5|4|9|4|52|1|1|31|
|# courses|53|28|9|9|12|13|127|16|16|61|

*,**,*** indicate statistically different from non-top 20 US economics departments at the 10, 5 and 1 percent level respectively.

32
Measuring True Sales and Underreporting with Matched Firm-Level Survey and Tax office Data and Investment Climate Survey for Mongolia (PICS) from 2004. Data for 2002 and 2003 was collected but we focus on the 2003 data because data for several variables of interest are not available for 2002. The survey covers Mongolian registered firms with at least 3 employees from manufacturing, construction, service, and tourism sectors.<sup>22</sup> The coverage rates of the number of firms in the four sectors are 81%, 70%, 56% and 53% respectively. The PICS survey data is matched at the firm-level with the second source of data, the firms’ tax reports submitted to the Mongolia tax office.

As a first shot at measuring the extent of underreporting by survey firms, we report the firms’ responses to the question “what % of total sales the _typical establishment_ in your area of activity reports for tax purposes” across city industry and firm size (Table 1). Firms report that the typical firms on average underreport 37.7% of their sales. Although underreporting in the city of Erdenet is significantly higher at 10% compared to Darkan and Hovd, the differences among the other 3 cities and across industry and firm size are not

**TABLE 1**

**Mean % of underreporting in sales by the direct approach**

||Variable|Obs.|Mean|Std. Dev.|Min|Max|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**_City_**|_Ulaanbaatar_|179|37.7|29.2|0|95|
||_Darkhan_|44|34.6|26.6|0|85|
||_Erdenet_|46|43.5<sup>*</sup>|26.0|0|97|
||_Hovd_|28|33.7|29.0|0|97|
|**_industr_**_y_|_Manufacture_|146|37.9|29.4|0|97|
||_Construction_|73|39.1|28.2|0|97|
||_Service_|55|34.1|29.7|0|90|
||_Tourism_|23|38.3|27.5|0|85|
|**_Firm size_**|_Small_(<10 workers)|91|37.4|30.6|0|97|
||_Medium (10-100 workers)_|176|37.3|28.0|0|97|
||_Large (>100 workers)_|29|41.5|29.5|0|90|
|**_total_**||297|37.7|28.8|0|97|

Note: weighted by sampling weights; * denotes significance at 10% _<u>; Source: WB PICS Mongolia (2004)</u>_ 22 See appendix A for more information on the data.

21
Policy Research Working Paper 9441

# **Abstract**

This paper empirically examines the demand and supply sides of bribery using World Bank Enterprise Survey data on 18,005 firms in 75 developing countries. It assesses the determinants of firms’ bribe paying behavior and examine how bribe behavior affects two main sectors where corruption is rampant: taxation and government contracts. The paper shows that corruption in tax administration tends to be mainly a demand-side phenomenon. Paying a bribe requested by a public official is associated with a 16 percent increase in the share firms’ sales not reported for tax purposes. In public procurement, the results suggest, on the contrary, that corruption is a supply-side phenomenon, with bribe transactions generally initiated by firms to secure public contracts. Firms supplying a bribe without a previous request by officials is associated with a 17 percent increase in the bribe paid to secure a government contract, more than three times the effect observed on the demand side of bribery.

This paper is a product of the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at wkouame@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
surveys in the LAC region use an additional reweighting procedure to construct individual weights. These weights essentially adjust for survey non-response and calibrate the sum of weights to match those from pre-crisis survey or census data. For surveys outside LAC, household weights are used with no comparable adjustment for individual weights. Therefore, comparisons of individual outcomes like labor market impacts between the RDD surveys in LAC and the recontact surveys in SSA should be interpreted with care.

As a robustness check, we attempt to make individual-level outcomes observed in the HFPS data more representative of the broader population by applying inverse probability weights estimated using the Global Monitoring Database (GMD). The GMD is a harmonized database of household surveys used for official poverty measurement. For each country, we use the most recent available year from the GMD to estimate inverse probability weights based on age, gender, living in an urban area, and level of education where available. Using this type of inverse probability weighting is well-established in the statistics and economics literature.<sup>7</sup> In some countries, the urban and/or education indicators are not available. In these cases, we rely on the set of available variables for weighting. (Table 3 shows the available weighting variables for each country.) We pool the HFPS and GMD data, and run a probit regression of an indicator to estimate the probability for being in the HFPS data on the available set of weighting variables from the GMD, weighted by the survey-based household weights. The inverse of the estimated probability is the weight. This gives greater weight to observations that appeared in the HFPS sample despite having a low predicted probability of being included in it. This procedure only corrects for selection bias due to the few observed variables used to estimate the probability. In Section 4.5, we examine robustness and find that this correction generally makes little difference between our main results based on HFPS household weights and our weighting system based on GMD data.

> 7See, for example, Horvitz and Thompson (1952), Woolridge (2002, 2007), Busso, DiNardo and McCrary (2014), and Li, Morgan and Zaslavsky (2018).

15