presented in column 1 of Table 3. Column 2 presents the regression results for the IMF WEO sample, and column 3 presents the results for the Consensus/Focus Economics private forecaster sample. Columns 4 through 6 replicate columns 1 through 3 with the inclusion of growth volatility as an additional independent variable (a covariate).

Growth forecasts are more accurate in countries with better data ecosystems. The quality of the data ecosystem (SCI) is negatively correlated with the absolute growth forecast errors (Table 3). This is consistent across World Bank, IMF, and private sector forecast errors. The magnitude is economically significant. In the base regression, the coefficient of -2.213 in column (1) implies that when the log of SCI improves by one standard deviation, same-year absolute forecast errors by the World Bank are lower by 0.44 percentage points. For the IMF, the corresponding figure is 0.49 percentage points. The coefficient of private-sector forecasters is statistically insignificant at the 10 percent level but retains a large magnitude despite a small sample size. Forecasters have more and better information in countries with better data ecosystems, leading to lower forecast errors.

The quality of the data ecosystem remains a strong predictor of forecast accuracy even after accounting for growth volatility, despite both being interrelated across all three samples (columns 4, 5 and 6).

**Table 3. Determinants of Absolute GDP Growth Forecast Errors (Forecast Accuracy)**

||**WB-GEP**|**Base Model**|<br>**Consensus/**|**Wit**|**h Growth Vola**|**tility**<br>**Consensus/**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Y = Absolute Value of Forecast Errors**|<br>**(2010-**<br>**2020)**|**IMF-WEO**<br>**(2010-2020)**|**Focus**<br>**Economics**<br>**(2015-2020)**|**WB-GEP**<br>**(2010-2020)**|**IMF-WEO**<br>**(2010-2020)**|**Focus**<br>**Economics**<br>**(2015-2020)**|
||**(1)**|**(2)**|**(3)**|**(4)**|**(5)**|**(6)**|
|Log of SCI (lagged)|-2.213*|-2.426**|-1.940|-1.408**|-1.595***|-1.799|
||(1.189)|(1.056)|(1.606)|(0.599)|(0.529)|(1.510)|
|MENA Dummy|0.906|1.032|1.095|0.634**|0.750**|1.157*|
||(0.667)|(0.689)|(0.749)|(0.310)|(0.362)|(0.635)|
|Growth Volatility (lagged)||||0.392***|0.404***|0.293***|
|||||(0.141)|(0.112)|(0.078)|
|Log of GDP Per Capita (lagged)|0.273|0.258|-0.109|0.112|0.092|-0.178|
||(0.183)|(0.187)|(0.395)|(0.097)|(0.110)|(0.316)|
|Absolute Value of Export Commodity Price Shocks (T)|1.677|4.172|8.017|-1.501|0.892|5.383|
||(4.788)|(5.126)|(9.283)|(3.993)|(4.596)|(9.831)|
|Internal Conflicts Shocks Dummy (T)|0.367|0.191|0.389|0.022|-0.165|-0.100|
||(0.293)|(0.320)|(0.396)|(0.204)|(0.232)|(0.428)|
|Log of Total Population (lagged)|-0.188***|-0.168***|-0.224**|-0.123**|-0.101*|-0.105|
||(0.055)|(0.064)|(0.106)|(0.054)|(0.058)|(0.101)|
|Boom Dummy =1 if Above Median Growth (lagged)|-0.165|-0.309*|-0.642**|-0.166|-0.310*|-0.513**|
||(0.182)|(0.170)|(0.246)|(0.197)|(0.171)|(0.232)|
|Constant|11.966***|13.195***|14.636**|7.773***|8.868***|11.873**|
||(3.913)|(3.726)|(6.856)|(2.084)|(2.097)|(5.636)|
|Number of observations|1,242|1,242|326|1,242|1,242|326|
|R2|0.345|0.318|0.489|0.413|0.392|0.504|
|Adjusted R2|0.336|0.308|0.469|0.405|0.383|0.484|
|_Number of Countries_|_126_|_126_|_56_|_126_|_126_|_56_|

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