<mark>more migrant workers than households in the rural lowlands, and correspondingly receive higher amounts of remittances.</mark> <mark>The results suggest that vulnerability to climate change and variability varies substantially across regions and agro-ecological zones in ways that are not a priori obvious. The vulnerability index varies according to socio-economic and institutional development while exposure and elevation exert smaller influences: geography is not destiny. Like all indeces, these results are of course a function of assumptions made when constructing the index but they are far from trivial, as geographic and meteorological data carry considerable weight in the index formula. The results indicate that urban areas are by far the least vulnerable while the eastern Region of Republican Subordination (RRS) mountain zone is the most vulnerable. The results also suggest that Tajikistan’s most remote and sparsely populated high-altitude mountains have medium vulnerability while prime agricultural valleys are among the more vulnerable areas. This implies that relatively vulnerable geographic areas can overlap centers of population and economic activity. Adaptation planners therefore do not necessarily face a trade-off between defending the most vulnerable areas and defending the economically most important areas from the impacts of climate change.</mark> <mark>After this introduction, the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Section 3 introduces the data and methodology used for constructing the index. Section 4 presents the results and Section 5 offers concluding remarks.</mark>

# **<mark>2. Vulnerability and adaptive capacity</mark>**

<mark>We define vulnerability as the risk of experiencing poverty or some other deprivation during some time interval, consistent with the social constructivist framework for understanding vulnerability (Füssel and Klein, 2006) and the Social Risk Management framework (Holzmann and Jorgensen, 2000; Heltberg, Siegel, and Jorgensen, 2009). Estimates of vulnerability to poverty normally focus on the risk of the household falling below the poverty line as a result of changes in income resulting from risky events. An individual or household is vulnerable to risk(s) associated with climate change if these risk(s) will result in a loss of well-being that pushes the individual or household below a threshold level of well-being. Vulnerability is a function of the risks, exposure and sensitivity to risks, and adaptive capacity. We define</mark> _<mark>exposure</mark>_ <mark>to mean the chance that assets and livelihoods will be impacted by climate change risk and</mark> _<mark>sensitivity</mark>_ <mark>as the susceptibility of assets and livelihoods exposed to risk.</mark> <mark>Adaptive actions are adjustments in assets, livelihoods, behaviors, technologies, or policies that address ongoing and future climate changes (IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2006; UNDP, 2007; Smit and Wandel, 2006). Adaptation confers private benefits--it is in people's self-interest to adapt in order to safeguard lives and livelihoods. Adaptive actions comprise both private, club, and public goods. Heltberg, Siegel, and Jorgensen</mark> <mark>4</mark>