allows us to include China and Mauritius for example. Data on access to water is missing for India. The latest available data in World Development Indicators indicates that access is 93 percent in India. Including India in our measure of vulnerability without this information on who is missing water may underestimates vulnerability in India by up to 7 percent. Again, future work requires developing methods to impute data for this measure, or whatever infrastructure measure is used, when it is missing.

• **Electricity** : whether a household has access to electricity. This is available for 139 countries of 168 for all years and 120 for the period 2015-present. Again, when this is missing but the World Development Indicator data indicates universal coverage, we assume no household is vulnerable on this dimension.

# Social Protection

The Atlas for Social Protection (ASPIRE) database provides the coverage of social protection and labor programs at the national level by household income quintile in each country.<sup>19</sup> Specifically, coverage is defined as the ratio between the number of individuals in the quintile who live in a household where at least one member is a direct or indirect beneficiary of any social assistance, social insurance, and labor programs, and the total number of individuals in that quintile.<sup>20</sup> In order to avoid using data that is too old, when the survey is outside of the range of +/- 5 years from the reference year we do not use the survey. For social protection we used 2018 instead of 2019 to maximize coverage because currently estimates of social protection coverage in 2020 and 2021 are not included in ASPIRE as they reflect the COVID-19 response rather than regular social protection coverage. If no data is available within the range 2013-present social protection data is counted as missing. This results in data being available for 92 countries, such that the inclusion of a social protection indicator limits global coverage. Similarly for 2010, data for the closest year to 2010 is used as long as the survey falls within 2005-2015.

The indicator used captures households currently receiving social protection, when conceptually what we would like to capture is whether or not a household is eligible to receive social protection should the need arise. The indicator we are using is very imperfect as someone in a formal job at the top end of the income distribution, not currently receiving social protection would be counted as vulnerable even though they could rely on social insurance instruments should the need arise. In future work, we will explore the possibility of using eligibility criteria to refine this measure. Additionally, we note that ASPIRE’s coverage is estimated using the national representative household surveys, which may capture primarily the largest programs in the country. As a result, the extent to which information on specific transfers and programs is captured in these household surveys can vary across countries.

While poverty and education data are available from the same survey source, this is often not the case for social protection data, and assumptions are needed to estimate social protection at the household level. In future work a more detailed approach could be used to impute whether a household is potentially covered by social protection systems, however for the purposes of this analysis we use information on social protection coverage rates by income quintile to assign each household a probability that they receive social protection. The probability for each household is equal to the coverage rate for the income

> 19 The ASPIRE database is available at https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/datatopics/aspire. As the majority of surveys used in the ASPIRE database are the same surveys in the GMD, we can explore all three dimensions together (poverty, education, and social protection) at the household level in future analysis.

> 20 Social assistance includes unconditional and conditional cash transfers, social pensions (non-contributory), food and in-kind transfers, school feeding, public works, fee waivers and subsidies. Social insurance includes insurance schemes against old age, disability, death of the main household provider, maternity leave and sickness cash benefits, and social health insurance. Labor market programs include active labor market programs such as training or job search assistance and passive labor market programs such as unemployment insurance and benefits.

20