rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
effects of Muslim and post-primary education. We would have expected that if they built “enclave labor markets” from choice, that the more educated ones would be more likely to be self-employed, at least in urban areas. This is not borne out from NSS data. Post-primary education does not increase the likelihood of Muslim men to be self-employed. On the contrary, when compared to salaried work, postprimary educated Muslim men become more likely to engage in casual labor or stay out of the labor force. So, much like Dalit men, Muslim men too stay out of the labor market if they can afford to, and if they absolutely cannot, perhaps they join casual labor. The “education penalty”: also seems to be higher for Muslim men than for Dalit men.

**Table 3:  Dalit Effect on the Mean Predicted Probabilities of Various Employment Categories**

**MEN ONLY**

(Author’s Calculations Based on Multinomial Logistic Regression Models - NSS 61<sup>st</sup> Round for Men Age 15-59 Excl. Students)

||**_Da_**<br>|**_lit Effect f_**<br>|**_or Rural M_**<br>|**_ales_**<br>|||**_Dal_**<br>|**_it Effect fo_**<br>|**_r Urban M_**<br>|**_ales_**<br>||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Regular|Non-<br>Farm<br>Self-<br>Emp|Self-Emp<br>Farmers|Casual<br>Workers|Out<br>Of the<br>LF||Regular|Non-<br>Farm<br>Self-<br>Emp|Self-Emp<br>Farmers|Casual<br>Workers|Out<br>Of the<br>LF|
|Non-<br>Dalit|0.10|<br>0.21|0.37|0.28|0.05|Non-SC|0.39|<br>0.39|0.03|0.12|0.07|
|Dalit|0.09|0.15|0.19|0.52|0.05|SC|0.38|0.27|0.02|0.23|0.10|
|**Dalit**<br>**Effect**|**-0.01**|**-0.06**|**-0.18**|**0.25**|**0.00**|**SC**<br>**Effect**|**-0.01**|**-0.12**|**-0.01**|**0.12**|**0.02**|

**Table 4:  Muslim Effect on the Mean Predicted Probabilities of Various Employment Categories**

# **MEN ONLY**

(Author’s Calculations Based on Multinomial Logistic Regression Models - NSS 61<sup>st</sup> Round for Men Age 15-59 Excl. Students)

||**_Muslim Eff_**<br>|**_ect for R_**<br>|**_ural Males_**<br>|<br>|||**_Musl_**<br>|**_im Effect f_**<br>|**_or Urban_**<br>|**_Males_**<br>||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Regular|Non-<br>Farm<br>Self-<br>Emp|Self-Emp<br>Farmers|Casual<br>Workers|Out<br>Of the<br>LF||Regular|Non-<br>Farm<br>Self-<br>Emp|Self-Emp<br>Farmers|Casual<br>Workers|Out<br>Of the<br>LF|
|Non-|0.10|0.19|0.34|0.33|0.05|Non-|0.41|0.35|0.03|0.13|0.08|
|Muslim||||||Muslim||||||
|Muslim|0.07|0.29|0.26|0.32|0.06|Muslim|0.27|0.48|0.02|0.15|0.08|
|**Muslim**<br>**Effect**|**-0.02**|**0.10**|**-0.08**|**0.00**|**0.01**|**Muslim**<br>**Effect**|**-0.14**|**0.12**|**0.00**|**0.02**|**0.00**|

**V.  Discussion:** The minority enclaves hypothesis rests on the assumption that those who are excluded from or disadvantaged in formal employment (or the primary labor market), will set up alternative and lucrative “enclaves” or “minority labor markets” based on (non-farm) self-employment. In India, when we say formal employment we mean teachers, clerks, security personnel and office attendants, mostly in

14
Policy Research Working Paper 9398

# **Abstract**

This paper constructs and estimates a household-level search model to analyze Roma spouses’ utility maximization for leisure, home production, and work. The paper aims to explain labor market gender gaps in a marginalized Roma population with low labor market participation rates (males 53 percent and females 17 percent). The analysis uses data from the 2017 Regional Roma Survey for six Western Balkan countries. The simulation results show that the main source for gender differentials in the labor market is the unequal opportunities in favor of males— not gender preferences or differences in home production productivity. Therefore, most of the gender differences in the labor market can be closed by providing wives the same labor market conditions as husbands. Counterfactual policy experiments show that policies that increase the frequency of receiving a job offer, decrease the frequency of laying off workers, and reduce search increase Roma husbands’ labor participation. Policies that equalize wages induces more wives to join the labor market and husbands to withdraw from it. This outcome signals that the wage gap is the dimension that deters the greatest number of Roma wives from joining the labor market.

This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at mrobayo@worldbank.org or sbrodmann@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
<!-- Start of picture text --> Low Income Group Lower Middle Income Group<br>35,000,000 35,000,000<br>30,000,000 30,000,000<br>25,000,000 25,000,000<br>20,000,000 20,000,000 eae Se<br>15,000,000 15,000,000 ees a Soeeer &<br>10,000,000 10,000,000 €=-"~EEO<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> feo = + ee me em * 5,000,000<br>0 ea — — 8 0<br>2013 2030 2013 2030<br>—@—Demand =—*=-Supply —A —Need —@®— Demand -*e-Supply —4 =Need<br>Upper Middle Income Group High Income Group<br>35,000,000 35,000,000<br>30,000,000 30,000,000<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> 20,000,000 ae 20,000,000ae<br>15,000,000 eeeeen<br>prorat T+ asm sme mms a 15,000,000<br>10,000,000 10,000,000<br>. | ee Y<br>5,000,000 5,000,000<br>0 0<br>2013 2030 2013 2030<br>—@—Demand =—*=-Supply —A —Need —@— Demand ——Supply —A =—Need<br><!-- End of picture text -->
_Backgroundpaperfor the_ Vietnam Development Report 2000, "Vietnam: Attacking Poverty", Joint Report of the Government of Vietnam -Donor- NGO Poverty Working Group

# Vietnam: on the road to labor-intensive growth ?

by Patrick Belser Consultant, World Bank pbelser@worldbank.org

- I am grateful to Adrian Wood for providing data and suggestions, and to Nisha Agrawal and Bob Baulch for their comments.
<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 2<br>Smallholder Burley Production and Number of Clubs Across Districts<br>(2004)<br>BALAKA DEDZA<br>ZOMBA<br>MACHINGA RUMPHI<br>MANGOCHI<br>NTCHIJI<br>MULANJE<br>NTCHEU<br>PHALOMBE<br>CHITIPACHIRADZULU<br>DOWA LILONGWE<br>SALIMA<br>MZIMBA<br>KASUNGU<br>MCHINJI NKHOTAKOTA<br>0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25<br>Ratio of Burley Clubs to Households Growing Tobacco<br>1<br>.8<br>.6<br>.4<br>Smallholders Participation in Total Production<br>.2<br><!-- End of picture text --> Sources: Tobacco Control Commission (number of clubs) and the Malawi Integrated Household Survey (quantity of burley produced by smallholders) 6
Fallon, P. and P. R. G. Layard (1975). "Capital-skill complementarity, income distribution and output accounting." _Journal of Political Economy_ 83(2): 279-301.

Fields, Gary S. (2001). _Distribution and Development: A New Look at the Developing World_ . (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press and the Russell Sage Foundation).

Fields, Gary S. (2005). “A Welfare Economic Analysis of Labor Market Policies in the Harris-Todaro Model,” _Journal of Development Economics_ 76: 127-146.

Fields Gary. 2007. “Modeling Labor Market Policy in Developing Countries: A Selective Review of the Literature and Needs for the Future”. Working Paper. World Bank. Washington DC.

Lambert, Peter (1989). The Distribution and Redistribution of Income. (Oxford: Blackwell).

Somavía, Juan (1999). Decent Work. Report of the Director-General to the 87th Session of the International Labor Conference. (Geneva: ILO).

World Bank 2006. “Morocco: Country Economic Memorandum.” World Bank. Washington DC.

Squire, Lyn (1981). _Employment Policy in Developing Countries_ (New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank).

World Bank 2006. “Morocco: Country Economic Memorandum.” World Bank. Washington DC.

World Bank 2007. “Morocco: Skills Development And Social Protection Within An Integrated Strategy For Employment Creation.” Green Cover Report. World Bank. Washington DC.

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**Figure 9: Number of cost ingredients per education study**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 3<br>Median number of<br>cost ingredients<br>2<br>1<br>0<br>1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11<br>Number of cost ingredients<br>Number of studies<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Data adapted from J-PAL (2014a). Calculations by authors.

**Figure 10: Percentage of cost explained by largest cost ingredient**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Earnings<br>100% information Computer<br>assisted<br>learning<br>80%<br>60%<br>40%<br>20%<br>0%<br>0 2 4 6 8 10 12<br>Number of cost ingredients<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Data adapted from J-PAL (2014a). Calculations by authors.

31
contamination of groundwater in bangladesh. _Journal of Development Economics 84(2)_ , 731–754. 1

- Mahajan, A., A. Tarozzi, J. K. Yoong, and B. Blackburn (2009). Bednets, information and malaria in orissa. Technical report, Duke University, Department of Economics. 19

- Nihei, N., Y. Hashida, M. Kobayashi, and A. Ishii (2002). Analysis of Malaria Endemic Areas on the Indochina Peninsula Using Remote Sensing. _Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases 55_ (5), 160–66. 8

- Peltzman, S. (1973). The Effect of Government Subsidies-in-Kind on Private Expenditures: The Case of Higher Education. _Journal of Political Economy 81_ (1), 1–27. 1

- Pulford, J., M. W. Hetzel, M. Bryant, P. M. Siba, and I. Mueller (2011). Reported reasons for not using a mosquito net when one is available: a review of the published literature. _Malaria Journal 10:83_ . 5

- Tarozzi, A., A. Mahajan, B. Blackburn, D. Kopf, L. Krishnan, and J. Yoong (2013). Microloans, bednets and malaria: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial. _American Economic Review_ . 1

25
**Figure 10: Counts of words regarding various consistency measures**

_(word frequencies in Budget Reviews)_ <!-- Start of picture text --> Word Frequencies<br>30<br>25 Consistency: Output Stabilization<br>Consistency: Budget Stabilization<br>20<br>15<br>10<br>5<br>0<br>1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Budget Reviews and authors’ calculations.

In Figure 11 we plot the rolling correlations of these two measures with (i) the output gap and (ii) the realized budgets. Again, these two terms do not always move in a similar manner.

- The authorities’ announced budget intentions (“consolidate the deficit”) and realized budget outcomes demonstrate limited consistency. The sudden change in signs from a consistent positive correlation to consistent negative correlation in 2011 is suggestive of either intentional procyclical policy or calculation errors in terms of potential GDP.

- Looking at the policy intention to ‘smooth the business cycle’ (i.e. countercyclical fiscal policy), actual policy reflected intentions up to 2006. In 2007, when the overall budget balance was still in surplus but the structural balance deteriorated markedly (as shown in Figure 8), intentions decoupled from the actual stance, suggesting that the authorities had underappreciated that strong commodity prices were still positively underpinning South Africa’s business cycle. The cycle had become the trend. Intentions remains decoupled from the actual dynamics of the economy until 2014/15, the actual end of the commodity super cycle.

By 2016, South Africa’s fiscal buffers were depleted and creditworthiness had declined. South Africa lost its investment grade credit rating in early 2017, being downgraded to BB+ by both Fitch and Standard and Poors, although Moody’s maintained an investment grade credit rating. When South Africa slipped into recession in the first half of 2018, room for fiscal stimulus was severely limited.

17
<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 13<br>(a) (b)<br>Bolivia<br>Colombia<br>Coca bush cultivation and eradication<br>Coca bush cultivation and eradication<br>(hectares)<br>(hectares)<br>60000<br>180000<br>50000 160000<br>140000<br>40000<br>120000<br>30000 100000<br>80000<br>20000<br>60000<br>10000 40000<br>20000<br>0<br>0<br>Cultivation of coca bushes in hectares Cultivation of coca bushes in hectares<br>Reported eradication of coca bush Reported eradication of coca bush<br> Source: UNODC Source: UNODC<br>1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> (c)<br>Peru<br>Coca bush cultivation and eradication<br>(hectares)<br>140000<br>120000<br>100000<br>80000<br>60000<br>40000<br>20000<br>0<br>1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005<br>Cultivation of coca bushes in hectares<br>Reported eradication of coca bush<br> Source: UNODC<br><!-- End of picture text --> 58
In contrast to one-size-fits-all approaches, this framework accounts for heterogeneity across countries by considering the magnitude of public investment shocks within country-specific historical contexts. This is an important feature in the analysis of EMDEs, which may exhibit fiscal procyclicality (commodity exporters) or budgetary process-driven volatility of public spending (low-income countries). The approach can be expanded to allow for time-varying or statedependent thresholds.

At the same time, a few caveats should be noted. First, issues related to endogeneity and fiscal foresight may persist, despite focusing on large cyclically adjusted public spending innovations to mitigate business cycle effects. Second, the methodology relies on measures of potential output, which are generally estimated with a certain degree of imprecision. Third, the measure of the public investment shock is a binary variable and does not yield an estimate of a multiplier directly from a regression. Rather, the output effects need to be interpreted in the context of the average change in public investment for the effective sample subject to the shock, rescaling to obtain the public investment multiplier value.

# **3.3. Methodological framework for the estimation of public investment multipliers**

Responses of real GDP to public investment shocks are estimated using the local projections method proposed by Jordà (2005). This approach has a number of distinct advantages over other estimation frameworks, including VAR models.<sup>14</sup> First, it does not impose dynamic restrictions and obviates the need to estimate the equations for dependent variables other than the variable of interest, thereby economizing on the number of estimated parameters. Second, it is well-suited to estimating nonlinear effects of public investment conditional on country-characteristics (statedependent multipliers). Third, it is relatively simple to deal with correlation in error terms—a likely complication in cross-country analysis. The following baseline specification is estimated:<sup>15</sup> + ε ii,pp+kk ii,pp−1 ii pp kk ii,pp ii,tt ii,pp llooll(yy ) −llooll(yy ) = αα + ττ + ββ ssho oo + θθXX in which _k_ = 0,...,5 is the forecast horizon in years; ) represents the cumulative change in real GDP (in percent) over the forecast horizon; , are country and time ii,pp+kk ii,pp−1 llooll(yy ) −llooll(yy fixed effects to account for time-invariant country heterogeneity and global factors (such as the ii pp world business cycle or oil price movements); is a set of control variables including—as in αα ττ Abiad et al. (2016) and Furceri and Li (2017)—two lags of the shocks and two lags of real GDP ii,tt XX

> 14 See Plagborg-Møller and Wolf (2021) for a discussion on the trade-offs between VARs and local projections. 15 Similar local projections specifications have been widely used in empirical literature on public spending multipliers, for instance, Abiad et al. (2015); Furceri and Li (2017); Honda et al. (2020); Miyamoto et al. (2020).

11
Table 3: Country-pair correlation regressions (APPENDIX)

||(1)<br>CPI|(2)<br>CPI|(3)<br>CPI|
|---|---|---|---|
|log index davax tot|0.017<br>(0.022)|||
|log index davax fn||-0.105<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>(0.030)|-0.052<sup>_∗_</sup><br>(0.029)|
|log index vax int||0.128<sup>_∗∗∗_</sup><br>(0.034)||
|log index davax int|||0.110<sup>_∗∗_</sup><br>(0.037)|
|log index DVARF|||-0.057<sup>_∗_</sup><br>(0.030)|
|N|18220|18214|17989|
|R2|0.630|0.630|0.629|
|Time windows|2|2|2|
|Country pairs|11435|11432|11275|
|Time FE|YES|YES|YES|
|CP FE|YES|YES|YES|

Standard errors clustered by country-pair in parentheses Note: observations with non-overlapping 10-year windows. _∗ p < ._ 1, _∗∗ p < ._ 05, _∗∗∗ p < ._ 01 the analysis above albeit with different data. Interestingly, when disentangling gross trade flows of intermediates into the part that is ultimately absorbed by the importer and the part that is re-exported further, the analysis show that this positive link is exclusively due to the directly absorbed part. This result confirms the finding from table 3 and means that when looking at both gross and value added trade flows, the synchronization of inflation between two countries is mostly related to the trade flows – that are absorbed rather than re-exported further which could be indicative of more rigidity in the production chains designed for primarily serve domestic consumption rather than foreign consumers. In table 7 in appendix, we provide the results for the same analysis using CPI inflation as dependent variable instead of GDP deflator. Results are virtually unchanged.

16
While all these factors are present to some degree in the region, road transport prices are particularly high. Averaging 17 US cents per ton-kilometer on main routes for international trade, they stand out even relative to other inefficient developing country markets.<sup>4</sup> In a comparable 2008-2009 study on SubSaharan African main trade routes, for example, freight transport prices were estimated to be between 6 and 11 cents per tonkilometer.<sup>5</sup> When adjusted for inflation and changes in petroleum prices, these would be equivalent to 7-12 cents in 2011-2012, when Central America price data were obtained.<sup>6</sup> In more advanced economies, trucking prices are observed to be as low as 2-5 cents per ton-kilometer (See Table 4 for relevant comparisons).

# **FIGURE 1:  MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AS PERCENT OF GDP**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 60.0%<br>50.0%<br>40.0%<br>30.0%<br>20.0%<br>10.0%<br>0.0%<br>Costa Rica El Salvador<br>Guatemala Honduras<br>Nicaragua Lower middle income<br>1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: World Development Indicators Note: Panama is excluded given inconsistent classification in series of reexports.

**TABLE 2:  MERCHANDISE TRADE AS SHARE OF GDP, AVERAGE 2007-2011**

|Country||Percentage|
|---|---|---|
|**Low**<br>**Middle**<br>**Countries**|**Income**|50.5|
|**Costa Rica**||73.1|
|**El Salvador**||62.6|
|**Guatemala**||55.7|
|**Honduras**||103.1|
|**Nicaragua**||66.9|
|**Panama**||112.3|

Although it is only one part of the transport and logistics equation, road freight represents a significant share of these costs in Central America. Road freight is used to link producers and consumers to airports and seaports and is the dominant transport mode for Central American intra-regional merchandise trade. Where estimates of total transport costs are available, road freight comprises between 20 and 50 percent.

Source: World Development Indicators

> 42011-2012 data from Central America Trucking Survey.

> 5Teravaninthorn and Raballand 2009.

> 6Oil prices in the latter half of 2007 averaged approximately USD 80 per barrel, as compared to USD 107 in late 2011-early 2012, or a 33 percent increase, and USD cumulative inflation between these years was approximately 8.5 percent, so if transport prices in Africa were one half composed of fuel costs, or if they rose with general USD inflation, they would be approximately 7-12 cents per ton-kilometer in 2011-2012.

3
LIBERIA’S INFRASTRUCTURE: A CONTINENTAL PERSPECTIVE surfacing options are used (single surface treatment for national and urban roads and gravel for rural roads).

**Figure 5. Liberia’s optimal fuel levy looks relatively high**

<!-- Start of picture text --> existing fuel levy optimal fuel levy<br>US cents per liter<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Gwillliam and others 2009.

**Table 3. Liberia’s spending needs for regional, national, rural, and urban connectivity**

|Connectivity|Road length in goo<br>|d condition (km)<br>|Spend<br>I|ing needs (US$ Ud|millions per<br>Ed|year over 10 yea|rs)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Actual|Required|mprove<br>condition|pgrae<br>category|xpan<br>capacity|Maintenance|Total|
|_Base scenario_||||||||
|Regional|149|829|3.5|20.5|0.0|7.3|31.4|
|National|399|1,479|1.4|25.0|0.0|8.9|35.3|
|Rural||5,713|11.2|11.5|0.0|11.2|33.9|
|Urban|350<sup>*</sup>|4,289|2.8|11.4|63.6|9.9|87.7|
|Total||12,310|18.9|68.4|63.6|37.3|188.2|
|_Pragmatic scenario_||||||||
|Regional|149|415|1.2|9.2|0.0|5.9|16.3|
|National|399|739|0.5|18.7|0.0|8.1|27.3|
|Rural||7,713|1.3|3.7|0.0|12.7|17.7|
|Urban|350<sup>*</sup>|1,716|2.8|9.8|8.2|9.9|30.7|
|Total||10,583|5.7|41.4|8.2|36.6|92.0|

Source: Carruthers and others 2008. *Refers to kilometers of paved road already in place.

10
Community leaders were asked what they saw as the main possible benefits and costs of the RSE program for their community. They view the main benefits as money for households and community projects, improving the standard of living in the community. The potential downsides envisioned included problems with separation of husbands and wives, not enough people left to do the community work, and potential concerns about lifestyles abroad coming to the home community.

In some cases communities have already received additional benefit at the community level. McDonald (2008) reports that the 32 workers from the Lolihor Development council in Ambrym raised more than NZD 10,000 busking with ukulele, tea-chest bass and voices outside Cromwell's bookshop and farmers' market at weekends, while rotary clubs and churches in the town raised more funds for village improvements.

These early reports suggest the potential for the RSE to have a significant development impact on the sending households and their communities. The overall impact will however depend on how their remaining household members adjust to their absence. Our follow-up surveys and evaluation aim to measure this impact.

# **7. CONCLUSIONS**

Despite Vanuatu’s geographical challenges and the evolving and slightly improvised character of the nomination process, recruitment to the RSE seems to have been relatively smooth and successful. Two-thirds of the community leaders thought selection had been fair and it appears to have coincided well with the specified criteria. Firms and agents generally appear to have selected carefully among the people who presented themselves, favoring those with better health records and more working and

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