the gains from adopting more productive rice technologies will be substantive, and it is difficult to envision a successful path to an African Green Revolution that does not include rice.<sup>6</sup>

# **The early debate on Asia’s Green Revolution**

Before looking at the potential role for rice in an African Green Revolution, it is useful to revisit early discussions about the anticipated consequences of Asia’s new agricultural technologies shortly after their introduction, since concerns discussed then touch on topics still relevant for Africa. Though strong links between the introduction of modern varieties of wheat and rice with poverty reduction would be later documented, there were early questions about whether the new production methods would benefit large and wealthy farmers rather than poorer smallholders, and whether they would promote mechanization as a substitute for agricultural labor. At the time, some economists predicted the new varieties would lead to increased landlessness and falling rural wages, exacerbating rural poverty rather than reducing it.<sup>7</sup> The new varieties that led Asia’s Green Revolution were bred to work better with greater applications of fertilizer than traditional varieties and to work best on irrigated land (David and Otsuka, 1994). This entailed greater costs at planting time and greater capital outlays. Uncertainty over the local performance of the new varieties added to the financial risk of up-front investments, especially in the face of weak input and insurance markets. All of this seemed to favor larger farmers with better access to capital and rich enough to take on additional risk. Still, early evidence suggested that the scale of production and the wealth of the household mattered less than was supposed. For example, Hazell and Ramasamy (1991) report on an early study by Barker and Herdt (1978) on the effects of the adoption of the new semi-dwarf rices and associated technology on income and employment, based on surveys conducted in 36 villages in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines and Thailand. The authors found that while smallholders faced considerable hurdles in acquiring inputs and credit, rates of adoption for the new varieties were similar, even in villages where there were large inequalities in the distribution of land. Bell, Hazell and Slade (1982) studied the introduction of irrigation and high-yielding varieties of rice in Malaysia’s Mudha River region from 1967 to1974 and found both an increase in mechanization and a large increase in the incomes of landless paddy workers. Blyn (1983), using data from Punjab and Haryana reported that, in practice, yields declined with farm size and that mechanization did not hamper rural wage income. Around the same time, a number of studies suggested that the indirect local effects of the Green Revolution on incomes and employment opportunities were large (Bell and Hazell, 1980; Estudilo and Otsuka, 1999) and an important element of overall economic growth (Johnston and Kilby, 1975; Mellor, 1976; Timmer, 2000).

> 6 This is not to minimize the importance of rice for food security for some regions and urban centers. See for example

> discussion in Wodon et al. (2008).

> 7 Chapter 1 in Hazell and Ramasamy (1991) provides a useful perspective. See in particular, Frankel (1971), Cleaver (1972) and Griffin (1974).

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