our study, section 3 describes the data in detail, section 4 lays out our empirical strategy, section 5 reports our main results, section 6 presents results on potential mechanisms, and section 7 reports robustness checks. Section 8 concludes.

# **2 Background**

## **2.1 Ethiopian Education System**

The Ethiopian education system is structured in three tiers: primary, secondary, and tertiary education. Primary education is mandatory and free for all children aged between seven and fourteen. It consists of two cycles of four years: grades 1-4 and grades 5-8. Secondary education is divided into two cycles of two years each: grades 9-10 and grades 11-12. At the end of grade 10, students take the Ethiopian General Secondary Education Certificate Examination (EGSECE), which grants access to upper secondary education (grades 11 and 12). Those who pass the EGSECE are routed into either natural science or social science streams. Upon completion of upper secondary education, students sit for the EHEECE after grade 12. Those who fail the EGSECE are assigned to a vocational track lasting 2-3 years, depending on the field of study. Tertiary education, which encompasses universities and colleges, is provided to students who complete their secondary education and pass the EHEECE. Depending on the field of study, institutions of tertiary education grant 3-6 years bachelor’s degrees and various graduate degrees.

Eligibility for tertiary education in Ethiopia - and in many cases outside of Ethiopia for emigrants - is thus determined by a two step process.<sup>4</sup> First, students must pass the EGSECE and attend upper secondary education in either natural sciences or social sciences stream. Upon completion of upper secondary education students must also take and pass the EHEECE. We study performance on the EHEECE, the exam that directly determines eligibility for college or university.

In recent years, Ethiopia has embarked on a rapid expansion of access to education across all tiers through construction of primary and secondary schools as well as universities. The Ministry of Education reports that from 2000 to 2021-22, the number of primary schools increased from 11,780 to 36,492 and secondary schools from 424 to 3,636.<sup>5</sup> These expansions have also led to a gradual increase in the education access rate of female students from 20% in 2003/04 to 34% in 2017/18. The scale up of tertiary education is equally impressive, with the number of public universities increasing from 2 to 42 in the last two decades. Besides expanding access, the construction of new schools is also aimed at rectifying regional inequities in access to higher education institutions. Despite these efforts to expand access to education by building new schools, little attention is paid to equipping existing and new schools with air conditioning (AC) systems to regulate classroom temperatures. Fewer than 8% schools have any kind of climate control (World Bank Group,

> 4Many U.S. colleges, for example, require applicants from Ethiopia to submit scores on the EHEECE as part of their application. 5

> We refer to reports ESAA 2014 EC (2021-22 G.C) Final and ESSA 2003 EC retrieved from: https:// moe.gov.et/EduStat.

4