rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Changing trade patterns after
            conflict resolution in the South Caucasus
Since the breakup of the USSR, the South
            Caucasus region has experienced a range of political
            conflicts, resulting in a number of hot and cold wars and
            border closures. The author analyzes the probably short-term
            impacts of peace in the region as a result of a resolution
            of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the
            Nagorney Karabakh region and an end to the associated trade
            blockades, with an emphasis on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and
            Georgia. The conflict has seriously distorted trade flows in
            the region, disrupted transport routes, and stifled export
            and import opportunities for Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia
            has enjoyed higher-than-normal transit through its
            territory. Trade has stopped in gas (from Azerbaijan to
            Armenia) and electricity (from Armenia to Turkey). Transport
            tariffs are unusually high, aggravated by government-imposed
            transit fees (taxes). Over time, trade restrictions have
            eased and trading partners have found ways to conduct trade
            despite closed borders and blockades--but at a cost.
            Applying a gravity model to regional trade, the author
            concludes that South Caucasus countries trade enough with
            the CIS countries and politically friendly neighbors, but
            too little with the European Union, the United States, and
            hostile neighbors. Lifting the blockades would alleviate
            trade distortions and bring about short-term improvements,
            including: 1) More rational trade flows; 2) A resumption of
            (or an increase in) regional trade in major commodities such
            as energy; and 3) Lower prices or higher profit margins (or
            both) on some important consumption and production goods.
            With peace, Armenia could more than double its exports if
            Azerbaijani and Turkish markets open, which could reduce
            Armenia's trade deficit by a third to a half and
            increase its GDP by 30 percent. Improving transport routes
            would produce immediate savings and relieve pressure on
            domestic prices, especially for energy. Azerbaijan could
            increase its exports by $100 million, or 11 percent of 1999
            levels, reducing its trade deficit by a quarter and raising
            its GDP by 5 percent. Its exports and imports would benefit
            from transport savings. Transit through Georgia might
            decline, but probably not by more than a quarter of the
            freight service surplus.
Measuring the impact of minimum
            wages : evidence from Latin America
The authors provide an overview of
            minimum wage levels in Latin America and their true impact
            on the distribution of wages, using both numerical measures
            and kernal density plots for eight countries (Argentina,
            Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and
            Uruguay). They especially try to identify
            "numeraire" effects--where the minimum is used as
            a reference higher in the wage distribution--and
            "lighthouse" effects--where it influences wage
            setting in the unregulated or "informal" sector.
            Their main findings: First, statutory minimum wages are
            often misleading, and graphical methods may be more
            reliable. Second, the minimum wage's effect on wage
            setting extends far beyond what is usually considered and
            probably beyond the effect in industrial countries. Using
            panel employment data from Colombia, where minimum wages
            seem high and binding, the authors quantify the minimum
            wage's effects on wages and on the probability of
            becoming unemployed. The Colombian case confirms the
            evidence offered by kernal density estimates: 1) The minimum
            wage can have an important impact on wage distribution in
            the neighborhood of the minimum wage. 2) The effects echo up
            the wage distribution in a clear demonstration of the
            "numeraire" effect. That this effect is stronger
            in Latin America than in the United States suggests that the
            minimum wage induces further-reaching rigidities in the
            labor market. The trade-off between any possible effect on
            poverty and reduced flexibility is likely to be more severe
            in countries where this is the case. The effects on
            employment, and unemployment, are substantial. 3) Informal
            salaries wages are also affected, confirming the graphical
            evidence of strong lighthouse effects. Self-employment
            earnings are not, however, confirming that the minimum wage
            is not simply serving as a measure of inflationary expectations.
Unrestricted market access for
            Sub-Saharan Africa - How much is it worth and who pays
The European Union (EU), Japan, and the
            United States (US) have recently announced initiatives to
            improve market access for the poorest countries. The authors
            assess the impact on Sub-Saharan Africa of these
            initiatives, and others that might be taken. They find that
            fully unrestricted access to all the Quad countries (Canada,
            The EU, Japan, and the US) would produce substantial gains
            for Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to a fourteen percent
            increase in non-oil exports ($ 2.5 billion), and boosting
            real incomes by about one percent ($ 1.8 billion). Most of
            these gains would come from preferential access to the
            highly protected Japanese, and European agricultural
            markets, especially the heavily protected Japanese market
            for meat, and certain cereal grains. The smallness of
            Sub-Saharan Africa's trade ensures that the costs of
            trade diversion for the Quad, other developing countries,
            and the world, would be on the whole, negligible. One
            concern, however, is that preferential access to protected
            markets might lead Sub-Saharan Africa to produce goods in
            which it does not have a global comparative advantage, and
            the future erosion of these preferences might lead to
            adjustment costs.
Crisis and contagion in East Asia :
            nine lessons
The authors investigate the origins of
            the East Asian crisis and its contagion, examine the
            channels of contagion, and discuss policy
            recommendationsThey make detailed recommendations in the
            context of nine general lessons learned from the East Asian
            crisis. 1) Preventing crises and contagion: avoid large
            current account deficits financed through short-term private
            capital inflows. Aggressively regulate and supervise
            financial systems to ensure that banks and nonbank financial
            institutions manage risks prudently. Put in place incentives
            for sound corporate finance to prevent high leverage ratios
            and overreliance on foreign borrowing. 2) Managing crises
            and contagion: In the context of sound policies, mobilize
            timely external liquidity of sufficient magnitude to restore
            market confidence. At times of crisis, "bail in"
            private foreign creditors. When official resources are too
            limited for the magnitude of the crisis or contagion, and
            when private creditors are not amenable to coordination,
            some involuntary private involvement may be needed too. Keep
            in mind that there is no one-size-fits-all monetary and
            fiscal stance for responding to crises and contagion. 3)
            Resolving the systemic consequences of crises and contagion.
            Move swiftly to establish domestic and international
            mechanisms for dealing with the assets and liabilities on
            nonviolable banks and corporations. Cushion the effects of
            crisis on low-income groups through social policies to
            ameliorate the inevitable social tensions associated with
            adjustment. 4) Developing an effective regional financial
            architecture. Improve mechanisms for preventing, managing,
            and resolving crises and contagion at the regional level in
            ways consistent with improvements in the global financial architecture.
Trade and production fragmentation :
            Central European economies in European Union networks of
            production and marketing
Developments driven by trade
            liberalization and tehcnological progress mean that old
            development strategies, based on state intervention and
            trade protection, no longer work. Global competition has
            brought a growing emphasis on product standards, rapid
            innovation, adaptability, and speedy response. Technology
            has made possible the fragmentation of production. Firms
            that become part of global production and distribution
            networks do not have to be foreign-owned, as many
            multinationals contract out the delivery of services and
            products. Foreign involvement facilitates the transfer of
            managerial and technological know-how, so firms benefit from
            becoming part of a network. Small producers, rather than
            servicing small local markets, can supply large firms
            abroad. Foreign participation--through outsourcing or direct
            investments--may offer direct access to a parent
            company's global networks. Becoming part of a
            multinational's production and distribution network is
            a cheap way to market products. But the unprecedented
            globalization of the production process has brought the
            integration of trade and the disintegration of production,
            with deep implications for the international division of
            labor. Have Central European economies been able to take
            advantage of the global fragmentation and disintegration of
            production and the division of labor? Ten
            countries--Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
            Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and
            Slovenia--have made large strides toward readjusting their
            production structures to international markets, mainly in
            the European Union. And trade in industrial products has
            lost its pre-transition idiosyncratic character. All 10
            economies apear to be on the same track as the European
            Union in changing patterns of trade with the networks the
            authors discuss. Progress is advanced in furniture (most of
            the 10 economies) and automobiles (the Czech Republic,
            Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) and is gaining
            momentum in "information revolution" networks
            (Estonia and Hungary). Progress in industrial integration
            with the European Union has been uneven. The first-tier
            economies (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland,
            Slovakia, and Slovenia) are much less so and, despite
            relatively low wages, have no comparative advantage in
            assembly in EU markets. Among first-tier economies, three
            stand out: Estonia and Hungary (in integration into
            "information revolution" markets) and Slovakia (in
            restructuring its automotive sector).
Community programs and women's
            participation : the Chinese experience
Using household data specifically
            collected for the purpose of evaluation, the authors
            empirically evaluate the impact on household income of a
            rural program in China that focuses on increasing
            women's economic and social participation in the local
            community. They find that the program substantially
            increases women's participation and household income,
            and also generates positive social benefits. The
            authors' results also suggest that the income gains
            accrue only to participants, and partly at the expense of
            nonparticipants. They find that the magnitude of the
            program's impact depends sensitively on the
            program's ability to increase participation rates
            within villages. In the presence of the program, individual
            participation helps to prevent negative externalities and to
            buy into the positive gains accruing to participants. The
            authors' results support the view that effectively
            implemented gender-focused interventions can have
            substantial social benefits when supported by the necessary
            legal and institutional framework.
Pension reform in Hungary : a
            preliminary assessment
Hungary is entering the fourth year of a
            multi-pillar pension reform that has proved popular among
            workers despite initially lukewarm support from the
            government that succeeded the reforming government, and
            despite the poor initial performance of capital markets
            because of Russia's crisis in 1998. Roughly half the
            labor force joined the new system voluntarily. Most who
            switched were younger than 40. Many people switched to the
            system because it offered more risk diversification. The
            pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system, which had been severely damaged
            by repeated manipulation of its parameters, clearly offered
            a low return on contributions. The new system is still
            predominantly PAYG. The first pillar accounts for more than
            two-thirds of the total contribution, but the new second
            pillar offers the chance of higher average returns on
            contributions. Most workers probably intuited the risk and
            returns inherent in a pure PAYG system and mixed system,
            including the capital market risk in the second pillar and
            the political risk in the PAYG pillar. The new system offers
            better prospects of long-run risk-adjustment returns for
            young workers, and most young workers effectively opted for
            the new system. But the new system was probably oversold as
            well, making older workers - who would be better off staying
            in the reformed PAYG system - switch too. The government has
            so far decided not to increase the contribution to the
            second pillar from 6 to 8 percent, as originally planned, so
            efficiency gains in labor and capital markets may also be
            smaller than expected. Addressing projected deficits in the
            PAYG system may require further adjustments, such as
            delaying the retirement age and shifting to indexed prices,
            reducing net benefits to future generations. Reform has
            sharply reduced the severe initial bias against future
            generation but hasn't eliminated it altogether. The
            voluntary switching strategy achieves the same outcome as a
            forced switch based on an arbitrarily cutoff age, while
            preventing legal problems and contributing to the reduction
            of the implicit pension debt. But it leaves a few
            individuals worse of the if they'd chosen their best
            option - a problem a well-designed public information
            campaign can reduce.
Human capital and growth : the
            recovered role of education systems
Recent empirical studies question
            conventional wisdom about the importance of education to
            growth. These results partly reflect how international
            differences in the quality of education systems--defined by
            the systems' ability to produce one marginal unit of
            productive human capital--are not taken into account. The
            author estimates neoclassical growth models on panel data in
            which the elasticity of human capital depends stochastically
            on different characteristics of the education system. Among
            characteristics that explain differences in quality are
            education infrastructure, the initial endowment of human
            capital, and the ability to distribute educational services
            equally among potential students. Giving priority to primary
            education for all rather than secondary education to a few
            is more likely to foster growth (for the same fiscal
            burden). But parallel actions are also probably needed--for
            example, promoting institutions that motivate skilled
            workers to spend time on growth-promoting activities and
            encouraging the inflow of foreign technologies to maximize
            the social return to public investment in education.
With the help of one's
            neighbors - externalities in the production of nutrition in Peru
Both public, and private resources
            contribute to children's nutritional status. And
            investments by one household may improve health in other
            neighborhood households, by improving the sanitation
            environment, and increasing shared knowledge. The authors
            measure the externalities of investments in nutrition, by
            indicating the impact of women's education in Peruvian
            neighborhoods, on children's nutrition in other
            households, after controlling for those households'
            education, and income. They find that in rural areas this
            shared knowledge has a significant impact on nutrition. The
            coefficient of an increase in the average education in the
            neighborhood is appreciably larger than the coefficient of
            education in isolation. That is, educating women in rural
            areas, improves all children's nutritional status, even
            for those whose caregivers are themselves not educated. In
            both urban, and rural areas, they observe externalities from
            investments in sanitation made by neighboring households.
            They do not find the same externalities in the case of
            investments, only in the household water supply. There is a
            direct link between the caregivers' education, and
            their children's health status. Education transmits
            information about health, and nutrition. It teaches
            numeracy, and literacy, which help caregivers read labels,
            and instructions. Bu exposing caregivers to new
            environments, it makes them receptive to modern medical
            treatment. It gives women the confidence to participate in
            decision-making within a household, and it gives men, and
            women the confidence to interact with health care professionals.
On financing global and
            international public goods
Three dimensions of public
            goods--nonrivalry of benefits, the possibility of being
            excluded from benefits, and the technology for aggregating
            public supply--determine what kinds of institutions and
            transnational actions are required for their provision and
            financing. For some public goods--especially for those for
            which the exclusion of nonpayers is not feasible--these
            properties are such that a public sector push is needed or
            the good will not be financed. This push can come from a
            supranational structure (such as the World Bank, the United
            Nations, or the European Union) that directly or indirectly
            collects the requisite fees from its members to underwrite
            international public goods (IPGs). To understand the role of
            international institutions in promoting IPGs, one must
            ascertain the nature of the good and whether it requires a
            push, a coax, or no assistance from a supranational
            structure or influential nation(s) and agents (such as
            charitable foundations). The transnational community should
            explicitly direct scarce resources only to those global and
            international public goods that need either a significant
            push or only a smaller coax by the transnational community.
            When clubs or markets can finance international public
            goods, the community should sit back and let incentives
            guide the actions of sovereign nations.
The impact of the AIDS epidemic on
            the health of the elderly in Tanzania
By the end of 1999, an estimated 24.5
            million Africans were living with HIV/AIDS, accounting for
            more that seventy percent of all global infections. In
            Tanzania, an estimated 1.3 million people (of a total
            population of 33 million) were believed to be infected with
            HIV, and 140,000 had already died of AIDS. One in every 12
            adults is infected. African couples have large families,
            partly so there will be adult children to support parents in
            old age. Instead, because of the AIDS epidemic, the elderly
            are often caring for their infected children, or orphaned
            grandchildren. The authors use longitudinal household data
            from Tanzania's Kagera region, to measure the impact of
            prime-age adult mortality on the level, and changes in
            physical well-being (as measured by body mass index, or BMI)
            of the elderly. They find that the elderly in non-poor
            households have higher BMI. Non-poor households are more
            likely to have an adult death, and the elderly in these
            households are more likely to suffer declining BMI in the
            months before the death of a prime-age adult. The elderly in
            both poor, and non-poor households experience a significant
            drop in BMI after an adult death, but BMI recovers over
            time, and there is no long-run association with BMI levels,
            and recent adult deaths. The elderly hit hardest are those
            in households nor receiving private transfers. Private
            transfers received by other household members raise the BMI
            of the elderly, especially after a recent adult death. There
            is no evidence that nongovernmental organizations, or public
            assistance to the household affects short-run changes in
            BMI. The elderly who have more living children are
            physically better off, but short-run increases in the number
            of teenagers in the household are associated with declines
            in BMI. Improving the incomes, and assets of the poor is key
            to improving the overall BMI of the elderly. The elderly who
            have more assets (such as better quality dwellings) tend to
            have higher BMI. Controlling for individual, and household
            characteristics, the elderly in communities with roads that
            are navigable year-round, have substantially higher BMI.
            Prevention of communicable diseases is key to reducing
            short-run fluctuations in BMI - through preventing HIV, and
            community immunization programs that benefit the elderly.