Duflo, Glennersten, and Kremer (2008) note that the spread of RCTs in health, education, and poverty programs owes much to the collaboration with NGOs, as collaboration with local authorities is still relatively rare. NGOs are much less involved in trade-related programs than in other programs, so the scope for RCTs may be inherently less, at least as long as the evaluation culture remains rare in public policy. Atkin and Khandelwal (2011) discuss how carrying out an RCT within the context of international trade depends crucially on finding a suitable local project partner who can provide the export promoting services to producers, and on convincing that project partner of the feasibility and value of the randomization procedure. However it should also be noted that working with NGOs generally limits the size and scope of the intervention and the impact of the program could differ if it is scaled up and implemented without NGO collaboration (Ravallion, 2008).

Atkin and Khandelwal (2011) describe an ongoing project for an RCT to assist microenterprises in the handloom weaving sector in Akhmeem, Upper Egypt to enter into export markets. The project’s objective is to link those microenterprises to foreign buyers in the U.S. through the provision of three kinds of services. The first consists of putting Egyptian producers in contact with design consultants to develop patterns that can appeal to the tastes of U.S. consumers; the second is marketing assistance with U.S. buyers; and the third is general business training. The project’s impact-evaluation design is simple: after drawing up a list of potentially viable producers/exporters in the sector and region, a random group of them will be given the opportunity to export to the U.S. market with the help of the three services listed above. The data on both outcomes (export performance) and covariates (producer characteristics) will be generated through surveys conducted as part of the IE. A baseline survey will collect information on all viable exporters — both those that will benefit from this intervention as well as those not approached before the services are provided. Another survey will be conducted long enough after the intervention in order for the effects to be tangible.

The World Bank is considering implementing RCTs in some of its own projects as well, although plans at this stage are preliminary. Candidate projects include a customs border post modernization project at the border between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, where petty traders on foot, mostly women, are regularly exposed to corruption and harassment. The project would involve some of the women’s associations (with group randomization) to designate customs brokers acting as shields between women and predatory customs officers. Another project involves the facilitation of payments for small cross-border transactions through branchless banking near the Cameroon-Chad border. Currently, all payments for such transactions are made in cash, which hampers trade. At the very least, the project would involve a natural experiment if branchless banking is allowed for traders on one side of the border but not on the other; in addition, the design may involve, in a pilot phase, selected access to non-cash payments for a randomly chosen treatment group.

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