rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
# **3 Results**

Our main results support the hypothesis that resource discoveries have a causal impact on the growth performance of countries relative to expectations. We find that following giant oil discoveries, the growth rate forecasts as reported in the IMF WEO increase significantly, while changes in actual growth remains, on average, zero. Hence, we find that growth forecasts have a statistically significant upward bias relative to the actual growth path.

## **3.1 Testing for a growth disappointment effect following a discovery**

Our first test examines the direct relationship between a discovery and growth rates- as they deviate from forecast growth. Here we are primarily interested in the effect on three variables; the measured rate of growth, the forecast rate of growth over the same period, and the difference between these two - the growth forecast error which provides our estimate of the _growth disappointment_ effect.

Table 3 presents results for our primary specification where our dependent variable represents the changes in our three outcomes of interest. Columns 3,4 and 5 provide additional tests when we include a measure of institutional quality - defined by the Polity IV measure of constraints on the executive (XConst), and measured prior to our first discovery, in 1980.

Our estimates suggest a growth forecast error of -0.83 on average, while the estimated impact on actual growth is -0.95 and significant when we control for initial institutional quality. Our measure of forecast growth alone cannot be distinguished from zero for the global sample. The interpretation on the growth differential coefficient states that the WEO forecast growth for the five year period is on average higher than actual growth by roughly 0.833 percentage points, and this is driven by both negative growth and growth being lower than anticipated. In other words, a negative estimated coefficient on _‘Diff gr’_ reflects a growth disappointment effect.

The result is stronger in the case of a ‘super-giant’ discovery, where forecast growth rates rise by an average of 1.14 percentage points, adding up to an estimated differential of -1.77 percentage points. This indicates a larger growth disappointment effect.

## **3.2 The role of differences in institutional quality**

We examine how our main results vary according to differences institutional quality, holding other things equal. Our main results in Table 3 includes a continuous measure of institutions interacted with our discovery dummy. Table 4 presents a wider range of possible governance scores, including our preferred measure, XConst, which captures constraints on the executive. Additionally we present results using Freedom House scores, measures of democracy, autocracy and the overall Polity IV scores.

We want to distinguish our effects across different levels of institutional quality. However, institu13
16 the degree of cross-country comparability. Our results with bilateral indices are directly comparable with those calculated by Aw and Roberts (1986) who calculated bilateral indices for Korean-US footwear trade using US import data.

The results of the bilateral calculations are summarized in table 5. Two commodity sets are reported: all footwear; 11/ and US-restricted commodities. The former classification contains 26 commodities, while the latter contains a subset of 21 of them. Average growth rates of price, quality and unit value indices are reported for the years of the US restrictions and the remainder of the sample period.

Several comparisons are possible for the data reported in table 5. Compa-4ng the OHA and non-OMA periods for the US reveals a very considerable rise in the rate of price increases in the former period, but a decline in the rate of quality change. This is consistent with our previous finding. Further evidence of the effect of the OMA on the restricted footwear types may be gleaned by comparing the indices for the restricted and all-footwear commodity classifications. The difference between OMA and non-OMA price rises is larger for the restricted commodities, but the difference in quality growth is the same. The lower quality changes in the all-footwear classification suggest that while substitution has been occurring from cheaper to dearer footwear and more strongly in the restricted than in the unrestricted set, the process was not affected during the OMA period.

The interpretation of the US data becomes more complex once account is taken of the results for the FRG and Japan. They display stronger price rise differentials than the US and the FRG also reports some quality upgrading. Thus comparing across countries seems to suggest
of domestic law. Overall, in the sectors and modes of supply covered by the index, the restrictions on foreign investment are far less stringent than the restrictions on the supply of services by foreign professionals (Gootiiz and Mattoo 2009).

**_Figure 12. Restrictiveness of Services Trade Policies, by Region and Sector, 2007/08_**

<!-- Start of picture text --> GCC SAR EAP MENA AFR LAC ECA OECD<br> Financial Telecom Retailing<br> Transportation Professional<br>Note: The number of countries 102<br>70<br>60<br>50<br>40<br>30<br>20<br>10<br>0<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: World Bank and WTO QUASAR database.

# **In services, Arab countries have in general poor regulatory and implementation capacities, weak negotiations infrastructure, and a shortage of resources to administer trade**

**agreements.** The process may be further complicated by the fact that countries have in the past taken very different approaches to international services liberalization, as illustrated by the very diverse extent of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) liberalization commitments of the region’s WTO members (Ghoneim 2011). In many instances, the extent of commitments reflects the status quo, or even less, especially for old GATT members. They have been assessed to be relatively modest and to include several restrictions on the participation of foreigners. While regional service liberalization has started in some countries (e.g., Morocco, Jordan, and to some extent new WTO acceding countries), the process is lagging behind in the region as a whole.

# **The Arab world has much to gain from regional services liberalization.** Comprehensive

services reforms that involve increased competition and regulatory streamlining would yield benefits that are two to three times the magnitude of those achieved through tariff removal alone (Konan 2003). The size of the reform benefits depends, of course, on the extent of initial openness and efficiency of the domestic services sector, the capacity of countries to cope with the adjustment needs, and the political commitment to modernization. In particular, opening 19
of endowments not being important in explaining GVC participation is also strongly rejected. Similar to the results in Column (1) of Table 1, countries with larger endowments of land and/or natural resources exhibit signi...cantly lower backward GVC participation shares, while those with stronger abundance in capital exhibit signi...cantly higher GVC participation shares. Moreover, countries located far from GVC hubs or those with larger domestic industrial capacity exhibit signi...cantly lower backward GVC participation.

# 4.2.1 Issues with Weak IVs and Statistical Inference

A concern with the second-stage IV estimates is that they could be biased and the statistical inferences made above invalid if the IVs are weak. That is, if the IVs included cannot explain the two endogenous variables, tari¤s and FDI in‡ows, then the second-stage results are questionable. Unfortunately, the econometric theory of IV between estimators with two endogenous variables is not yet developed. The existing econometric theory focuses on cross-sectional IV estimation, with i.i.d. error terms as discussed in Andrews et al. (2019). To properly test for weak IVs, we collapse our cross-country decadal panel data set into a single-period cross-country data set, by taking for each variable’s average over time within each country. In addition to enabling to properly test for weak IVs, this crosssectional speci...cation allows for heteroskedasticity to be addressed. Columns (3) and (4) of Table 3 present the ...rst-stage cross-sectional regressions, with standard errors robust to heteroskedasticity. Comparing Column (3) to Column (1) and Column (4) to Column (2) in Table 3, it is clear that the ...rst-stage cross-sectional regressions are very similar to the ...rst-stage between regressions. The ...rst-stage F-statistics for tari¤s and FDI individually are strongly signi...cant. Jointly, the Kleibergen-Paap F-statistic for the ...rst-stage is 10.39, which is larger than the critical value of 8.78, as given in Table 1 of Stock and Yogo (2005), and also larger than the rule of thumb of 10 widely used in empirical research relying on IV estimation. In Table 4, Column (2) presents the second-stage estimates of the cross-sectional regression which are very similar to those of the IV between regression in Column (1). The Anderson-Rubin Wald test for weak-instrument-robust inference for the second-stage is 3.43, which is signi...cant at the 99% level, rejecting the null hypothesis that tari¤s and FDI jointly are not important in determining GVC participation. The high Kleibergen-Paap rk LM 19
recommended history taking items reported by providers was higher and statistically significant at least at the 90% level. With respect to recommended exam procedures, the rate reported by the PBF providers was higher in 5 of the 6 cases and statistically significant at least at the 90% level.

It is important to note that we cannot identify the channel through which provider competence improved. Because providers in the PBF districts were retrained in family medicine, these results may represent the impact of additional training rather than an effective of PBF incentives. Nevertheless, there are several mechanisms through which PBF might theoretically improve provider competence. As reported above, facilities were more likely to have medical protocols available and the facilities had more frequent supervision visits. Providers may have had an indirect incentive to improve their knowledge of the protocols because the medical records and registers are more likely to be reviewed, or a direct incentive to increase the quantity of services provided by improving service quality and attracting additional patients. Overall, we can only conclude that the combination of training and PBF was successful in improving provider competence. However, overall performance on the clinical vignettes was poor and there remains much room for improvement.

In Table 5, we present results on content of care measured through direct clinical observations of patient-provider interactions. These interactions were curative care consultations of children under-5 and adults aged 40 and above. The analysis reported in the table uses propensity score weighting analysis to account for low sample size in the baseline survey. Analysis of content of care is constrained due to variability in chief complaints and clinical presentation of patients. We therefore focus the analysis on the diagnosis process and a set of actions which should be performed in every consultation.

For the adult consultations, we do not find overall significant differences in content of care. Providers in the PBF facilities were statistically significantly more likely to inquire about patient history of consumption of alcohol and cigarettes, physical activity, diet and diabetes status (Appendix Table A5). However, once averaging over the 18 items which should be included in every patient history, the coefficient is not statistically significant (p = 0.149). The 10-year cardiovascular risk was calculated in 38 percent of consultations. In only 4 percent of consultations the cardiovascular risk was correctly calculated given the age, gender, diabetes, and smoking statuses of the patient. Measurement of blood pressure measurement is high overall, conducted in 13
percent of children in non-RSE households attending school on average over this two year period.

In contrast, panel B shows no significant effect of the RSE on school attendance in Vanuatu. One reason may be that starting in 2010, when the final round survey was in the field, primary schooling became fully subsidized whereas previous fees were 7000 vatu per year (10 percent of per capita average income). Moreover, many schools had allowed students to remain enrolled even with unpaid fees from previous years; the main incentive to clearing these debts was that it allowed students to sit the leaving examinations at the end of Grade 6 and 8. Hence, RSE workers reporting the payment of school fees as a motivation may have repaying school fee debts, which would not show up in current enrolment except for a possibly higher transition rate to high school (which also depends on examination performance). Our data do not capture this higher transition rate, partly because rural students often leave their households to live with urban relatives so as to attend secondary school (national secondary enrolment rates are below 40 percent and are much lower in rural areas, in part because of geographic inaccessibly of schools).

The apparently divergent impacts of RSE participation on school enrolment also may reflect the nature of the selection into the RSE in the two countries. In Vanuatu, the households participating in the RSE are relatively better off, and their children have higher baseline school attendance rates than non-RSE households. It is therefore possible that credit constraints were not limiting schooling for this group. In contrast, the Tongan RSE households were relatively poorer at baseline than the non-RSE households, and had lower school attendance rates. The extra income earned through the RSE allows them to then catch-up to (and surpass) the school attendance rates of the non-RSE group.

Our data do not show any evidence that the RSE has fostered the development of nonagricultural businesses among the households in our sample in Tonga. None of the households surveyed mentioned investment in a business as a main use of the money earned in the RSE, and we do not observe any individuals in RSE households starting a new business over the two year period of our surveys. In Vanuatu we only had 5 households in the round 4 survey say the most important use of the money earned through the RSE was starting a business or supporting an existing business. Given the low population densities and small local markets, it is not clear what the scope for such business start-ups actually is, but over the first two years of the RSE policy, there does not appear to be much evidence of it fostering self-employment.

# **5. Community-level impacts**

19
been a very substantial increase in employment given output. Firms facing large negative product market shocks and disruptions have tended to go slow on their adjustments to **2** employment, with obvious consequences, as noted, for unemployment . What the table omits, however, is that firms in the FSU have commonly reduced working hours and hence effective wages to those employed. Much of the offset to this income decline has been provided by unofficial activity. Workers have thus combined continuing attachment to state firms with growing involvement in informal activity. Rather than generating open unemployment, available evidence points to significant under-employment in state and privatised firms alongside widespread participation in informal private activity by workers.

**Table 2: Change in employment relative to output in transition economies: 1990-1994**

|**East and Central Eu**|**rope**|**FSU**||
|---|---|---|---|
|Bulgaria|- 5.5|Arrnenia|+47.8|
|Czech Republic|+16.1|Azerbaijan|+37.5|
|Hungary|-12.8|Belarus|+23.9|
|Poland|- 24.5|Kazakhstan|+51.9|
|Romania|+20.1|Kyrgyz Rep|+88.4|
|Slovak Republic|+11.4|Russia|+62.7|
|||Ukraine|+36.6|
|||Uzbekhistan|- 6.1|

**Source: OECD, Short Term Economic Indicators, Paris, 1995**

-- This paper is an attempt to explain why FSU -- and, most particularly, Russian employment in state and privatised firms has not only stayed high and unemployment low, but has also been accompanied by a very swift growth in the informal or unofficial economy. We trace this development through to a combination of factors that include the control regime of state and privatised firms, the composition of worker compensation and the nature of subsidies or financial supports that firms continue to receive. Through a combination of the inheritance and the structure of financial transfers, firms have remained the primary sites of social protection. We show that subsidies for social benefits have, in effect, been a subsidy to employment and have promoted continuing

> 2 Commander, Dhar and Yemtsov (1995)

4
3. In general and until recently, Indian economic policy has not treated exports as a priority. Instead, the aim was for broad selfsufficiency in most products through import substitution, with exports covering the costs of residual import requirements. In the last few years there has been a growing awareness of the importance of export performance as the limits of efficient import substitution were reached. The oil price increases of 1973/74 and 1979/80 created severe adjustmer.n pressures for the balance of payments, and the benefits of having foreign exchange to finance more rapid importation of high technology capital goods and consumer goods in scarce supply have become more widely recognized.

4. Among the domestic industries which target the export markets, the most important are the eng neering -particularly electronics ar.d car manufacturing- and the textile sectors. The engineering indusiry has become a large and varied component of Indian manufacturing. However, the industry is afflicted by power shortages, excessive regulations, limited supplies of raw materials and lack of access to new techr.ology. In the two sub-sectors electronics and motor vehicles major efforts are under way to boost productivity through liberalization of technology and component imports, simplified licensing, foreign investment and cuts in customs and excise duties. In the wake of these developments, it is interesting to observe how some segments of these industries have started to tie into international production networks. The case can be made about car manufacturing and consumer electronics.<sup>1</sup> After significant value added in India, products out of these industries are then re-exported tc overseas markets, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. This move became possible after substantial production capacities had been established and domestic demand could be largely satisfied.

5. The drive to increase exports of manufactured goods is an imoortant phenomenon of far-reaching consequences for trade logistics management. The same can be said about the changing market orientation of India's export flows. Both observations will be further elaborated below.

# Orientation of India's Export Trades in key Markets

|Region||Percent|Share||
|---|---|---|---|---|
||1960|197C|1980|1988|
|Asia|12.2|24.5|2C.5|20.9|
|Australia|2.6|2.4|1.8|-1.|
|Europe|34.1|26.0|28.8|29.1|
|Middle East|27.5|6.1|10.8|5.8|
|U.S.A.|5.1|18.1|23.8|24.3|
|U.S.S.R.|18.5|22.8|14.4|18.8|

**Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence, Ministry of Commerce,** GCI.

- **1/'** Two **examples are imports of glass** for **cars from Indonesia srd television tubes** from South **Korea,** which **represents about** '25 **Forty-foot containers** that **a-e moved to Northern** Indis on **a weekly basis.**
these variables, Africa seems to suffer from a certain lack of accountability. That is also precisely why a fiscal contract needs to be established in African countries.

# **Table 4: The Main Determinants of Accountability**

|Dependent variable: Voice an|d accountabil<br>|ity|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
||**(1)**||**(2)**||
|GDP per capita|0.01||-0.01||
||_0.05_||_0.03_||
|Oenness|0.10||**0.36**|******|
|p|_0.15_||_0.12_||
|Trade tax|-0.26||-0.22||
||_0.65_||_0.40_||
|Individual tax|**3.45**|**|**3.33**|**|
||_0.76_||_0.43_||
|Oil exorts|**-0.65**|*****|||
|p|_0.37_||||
|Fuel exorts|||**-1.07**|*****|
|p|||_0.62_||
|Sub-Saharan Africa|_-0.42_||**-0.58**|******|
||_0.41_||_0.21_||
|South Asia|-0.50||**-0.26**||
||_0.46_||_0.22_||
|Middle East and North|0.11||-0.04||
|Africa|_0.40_||_0.21_||
|East Asia and Pacific|**-0.76**|*****|**-0.68**|**|
||_0.41_||_0.20_||
|E d Ctl Ai|0.40||0.23||
|urope an enra sa|_0.36_||_0.16_||
|Latin America and the|0.48||0.36||
|Caribbean|_0.45_||_0.22_||
|Constant|-0.26||-0.32||
||_0.69_||_0.40_||
|# of obs.|78||203||
|R^2|0.657||0.611||

(standard deviation shown in italic) 12
-24-

# VI. Prolect Identification/Definition

6.01 The next step is the **Proieot Xdentitiatidn a Definition plan.** Using the projects submitted by each region, the Performance Improvement Task Force should try to put the inter-related projects in packages which are relevant for the railway as a whole and for each corridor identified in the Marketing Plan. There will be broadly 4 categories of projects which must be taken into account: i) Civil Works . ii) Bquipment Acquisition. iii) Institutional and O_ganization studies. iv) Technical Assistance. They are discussed below.

6.02 The Civil Works project are normally those identified by **the** Way and Works and Mechalical Departments. They involve track rehabilitation, bridge rehabilitation, lengthening of sidings, improvement in yards, rehabilitation and/or construction of mechanical workshops, etc. They are normally easy to identify and very costly to execute and account for most of the money available. Caution must be exercised in order to propose only what is required for the substantial improvement of operations and relegate to subsequent phases major extensions which are costly and will only produce benefits in the long term.

6.03 The Equipment acquisition projects consist in the actual definition of the cars and locomotives to be bought. They also include other equipment such as telecommunications and signalling, intermodal equipment, track maintenance equipment, mechanical shops equipment, spare parts, etc. Equipment acquisition rw4uires very careful planning to guarantee a certain standardization which later will facilitate maintenance. Equipment normally accounts for the other important shre of the investment plan.

6.04 The Organization and Institutional Studies are normally accepted by most railways seeking money because they know that bi-lateral and multilateral agencies would not make them loans if they don't accept them. This is clearly the wrong attitude towards probably the most significant changes which can be introduced in the railways. These studies and the implementation of their recommendations should form the core of the blue print for modernization which most developing railways are actually seeking in order to become commercially oriented and self-sufficient in the long run. Some of the questions which will lead to these studies are:

- What are the basic regulatory and institutional constraints which prevent us from working as any other commercial enterprise?

- What is the "enabling environment" which we would like the government to create so that we can be less dependent on government?

- Should we propose a contract-plan to government and insist in guarantees that social imposed services be timely and adequately compensated?