rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
control villages over time are necessary to capture changes in road conditions before and after the road investment.

This paper uses household-level panel data collected by BIDS with reference to two projects — the Rural Development Project (RDP) and the Rural Roads and Markets Improvement and Maintenance Project (RRMIMP) — supported by the World Bank. The data provide information on both project and control villages at the household level. We use a household fixed-effects technique to estimate the returns to road investment in terms of its impact on household per capita consumption (a measure of household welfare), labor supply, school participation rate of boys and girls among school age children, aggregate crop output and price indices, agricultural wages, fertilizer prices, and household transport expenses. We find that households do benefit in a variety of ways from road investment by paving an earthen road.

The results suggest that the savings of household transport expenses are quite substantial, averaging about 36 percent in RDP villages and 38 percent in RRMIMP villages. Road improvement also has a significant impact on men’s agricultural wage (increases by 27 percent in RDP villages), fertilizer price (falls by about 5 percent in RDP and RRMIMP areas) and aggregate crop indices (price indices increase by about 4 percent in both project samples, while output indices rise significantly by about 38 percent in RDP and 30 percent in RRMIMP project villages). The road effects are substantial for adult labor supply in RDP project villages, and schooling of both boys and girls. The overall effect of road improvement on household per capita annual consumption is also 11 percent in both project areas.

The distribution of benefits is not, however, independent of household resource endowments and location specific factors. We employ panel quantile regression techniques that show that while in RDP, project returns for per capita consumption average about 12-16 percent across different per capita expenditure quantiles (with the highest return for households in the 50<sup>th</sup> percentile), in RRMIMP the consumption benefits from rural road investments accrue largely to households in the 15<sup>th</sup> percentile of the overall distribution. Thus, rural road projects do benefit the poor, and disproportionately so in the RRMIMP sample.

The overall poverty effect of road improvement projects has been significant. In RDP villages, we find a poverty reduction (moderate and extreme) due to road improvements of about 5 percent; with an approximate 6-7 percent poverty reduction in RRMIMP project villages. Thus, had the duration of road pavement taken about 5 years, we could argue that each year poverty fell by about 1 percent, solely due to rural road improvements.

18
work done, and the share reporting being involved in decisions concerning them is 14.6% for health care, 13.2% for visiting relatives, 28.6% for attending school, and 21.9% for work outside the house. While an increase in parental information may lead parents to restrict the child’s independence, our measures of “empowerment”, which mirror those traditionally used to measure the empowerment of adult women in general-purpose household surveys, seem to suffer from similar issues to those encountered in the measurement of adult female empowerment and are thus unlikely to be informative. While difficult to validate empirically in the absence of objective measures of empowerment, where such objective measures exist (Almås et al., Forthcoming) or where panel data exist (e.g., in the PROGRESA evaluation panel), commonly used measures of adult female empowerment do not perform well. In our sample, the coefficient of correlation between girls’ answers at baseline and endline for the five questions used to construct the empowerment index is between -0.06 and 0.16. This is similar, for instance, to the within-household correlation in answers to a question about whether the wife or the husband is “in charge of household expenditure” in the PROGRESA evaluation panel.<sup>28</sup> To summarize, we find evidence that providing high-frequency information to parents about their daughter’s school attendance increases school attendance, and that this effect is not statistically distinguishable from that of a traditional CCT to parents also providing the same information. Incentivizing girls with vouchers allowing them to buy a choice of goods is at least as effective as incentivizing parents with the cash-equivalent of these vouchers – and importantly, _not_ because parents were able to appropriate the vouchers or 28 After restricting the PROGRESA evaluation sample to households composed only of mother, father, and children observed in all three survey waves between October 1998 and November 1999, the correlation coefficient between a binary indicator for whether the wife (the husband) is “in charge of household expenditure” and its 6-month lag is 0.040 (0.066) (Sokullu and Valente, 2018).

32
29 Table 7: Balancing tests with non-enrolled households as ‘untreated’

||Before ma|tching|After matchin|g w/ PS|After matching|w/ kernel|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Diff|t-stat|Diff|t-stat|diff|t-stat|
|Head is rural wage laborer (omitted category = professional worker)|0.031|1.83|0.001|0.06|0.018|0.93|
|Head is farmer (omitted category = professional worker)|-0.005|-0.28|-0.040|-1.94|-0.036|-1.82|
|Head is retired (omitted category = professional worker)|-0.100|-4.88|0.031|1.73|0.016|0.86|
|Head is employee (omitted category = professional worker)|-0.080|-4.06|0.030|1.64|0.008|0.40|
|Head has primary education (omitted = illiterate or semi-literate)|-0.093|-5.96|0.005|0.33|-0.004|-0.24|
|Head attained junior high school (omitted = illiterate or semi-literate)|0.046|2.64|0.007|0.36|0.001|0.06|
|Head attained high or vocational school (omitted = illiterate or semi-literate)|0.055|2.97|-0.020|-0.90|0.005|0.23|
|Head has college education (omitted = illiterate or semi-literate)|-0.008|-0.44|0.009|0.43|0.003|0.17|
|Distance to closest facility category 2|0.185|10.13|0.001|0.06|0.043|2.04|
|Distance to closest facility category 3|0.079|4.75|-0.001|-0.03|0.022|1.12|
|Distance to closest facility category 4|0.090|6.03|0.015|0.89|0.029|1.89|
|Distance to closest facility category 5|0.002|0.18|0.005|0.48|-0.001|-0.07|
|Distance to closest facility category 6|0.077|6.71|-0.014|-0.99|0.000|-0.03|
|Central China (omitted category is East)|-0.111|-6.39|-0.005|-0.25|-0.040|-1.99|
|Western China (omitted category is East)|0.111|6.97|0.002|0.11|0.018|1.04|
|Household per capita income|0.077|4.67|-0.019|-0.94|0.019|1.06|
|Head's gender|0.089|4.85|-0.003|-0.14|0.012|0.59|
|Share of household members chronically sick|0.000|-0.02|0.003|0.13|-0.010|-0.45|
|Share of household members with health fair or bad|-0.015|-0.82|-0.051|-2.33|-0.043|-2.02|
|Household size|0.322|20.36|0.040|2.22|0.087|5.19|
|Ethnic minority household|-0.112|-10.30|-0.037|-3.30|-0.050|-5.46|
|Share of household members over 65|-0.038|-2.05|-0.025|-1.20|-0.022|-1.09|
|Share of household members under 10|0.055|3.36|0.026|1.42|0.030|1.66|
|_Dibao_household or classified as poor (_pinkun_)|-0.029|-1.78|0.016|0.93|0.003|0.18|
|Received safety net payments last year|0.154|13.38|0.012|1.16|0.023|2.51|
|Someone in household enrolled with GIS or LIS|-0.180|-9.66|-0.029|-1.40|-0.034|-1.71|
|GDP per capita in county|0.117|6.52|0.012|0.61|0.046|2.62|
|_Average (absolute difference)_|_0.082_||_0.016_||_0.022_||
- 10 -

14. These differences, at least as measured by employment statistics, reflect almost exclusively changes In the level and compositlon of male employment. Measured female participatlon<sup>5</sup> remalns minor in all locallty sizes and activities and Increases perceptibly only In services In rural towns.

# D. Femal Partlipation

15. Females account for about 15 percent of national employment, 20 percent In agriculture and 10 percent In nonfarm act!vlty (Table 6). Among nonfarm occupations, women are most prevalent In household Industries, where they account for 20 percent of all workers. Since household manufacturfing declines precipitously In large cities, the female share of nonfarm and total employment drops to Its lowest level In these major centers.

16. Employment data, though they afford the most comprehensive framework for viewing changes in nonfarm activity and differences across reglons, are least reliable In evaluating women's economic role. The Invisibillty of women working In the home coupled with a restricted definition of economically galnful actIvity compromise our efforts to fully measure the economic participation of women. Table 7 Illustrates the potentlal magnitude of the undercounting, what some refer to as the 'statistical purdah' (World Bank, 1989). Beginning In 1971, the population census adopted a more restrictive employment definitlon than that used In 1961,6 and nonfarm activitles In which women predominate bore the brunt of the discounting. Measured female nonfarm and total participation rates dropped by over 60 percent between the two

> 6 **S.o** World **Dank** (1989) **for a** good discussion **of** how dramstically conventional labor **force** definitions undercount **fem_le** participation.

> 6 Notorojan (1962) **and Jacob** (1966) provide **a** good **review of the** problems with **changing labor force** definitions. rable **A.4** illustrate- **some of the anomalioe** resulting from **the** changing definition. Notice the meosured **decline** in total **and** nonform workers **between 1961 and** 1971 **even** in tho **face of a** 20 **percent incroose** in population.
62 signs of dropring. For fiscal years 1985-1987, legal immigration has averaged 66,654 per year, slightly higher than the average for the previous five years. Moreover, from FY1984 to FY1987 legal immigration from Mexico increased at an average annual rate of 7.9 percent. Finally, there is no indication that emigration from the United States to Mexico is increasing. Therefore, I would recommend that net international migration for 1985-1990, 1990-1995, and 1995-2000 remain constant at the 1980-1985 level of 750,000. It should be noted that the United Nations also makes a constant assumption for the period, although at a lower level.

# El Salvador

A new study by Georgetown University's Hemispheric Migration Project reports that one million Salvadorans now live in the United States and almost half of them did not qualify for the IRCA amnesty program (i.e., they arrived in the United States after January 1, 1982). Other studies have put the total size of the Salvadoran population in the United States at 500,000-900,000. The Georgetown study was based on survey interviews of 2,000 families in El Salvador in 1986 and 1987 and 1,300 Salvadorans living in the United States. The study found that 3/4 of the stock of Salvadorans in the United States arrived after 1979 and 48.8 percent arrived after 1981. Since legal immigration from El Salvador to the United States has been running at an average annual level of 10,000 or less, it is clear that the majority of Salvadorans in the United States are in an illegal status. This is consistent with the fact that Salvadorans were the second largest group to apply for amnesty under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. Although 46 percent of the respondents in the Georgetown study said they want to eventually return to El Salvador, 57 percent said they intend to become U.S. legal residents. On a much smaller scale, immigration from El Salvador to Canada has burgeoned in the last five years. From a level of only 112, immigration to Canada increased to an annual average of 2,670 in 1983-1985 and further to 3,352 in 1986-1987 (Employment and Immigration Canada, 1987, and unpublished tables from Employment and Immigration Canada).

Since major political and economic changes that would improve the situation in El Salvador do not seem imminent, continued emigration at a high level seems likely. I would suggest that the World Bank adopt estimates of -382,000 and -212,000 for the first two periods and a level of -175,000 and -150,000 for 1990-1995 and 1995-2000 respectively.

# Venezuela

Venezuela has been one of the few countries in Latin America that has been a net recipient of immigrants in recent years. It has also been the most important destination for illegal immigrants. However, there have been large annual shifts in net international migration due to policy changes and fluctuating oil prices. An amnesty for undocumented immigrants in 1980 signed up 266,795 persons (301,662 persons counting children), but the actual number of illegal immigrants was thought to be much larger at the time (Van Roy, 1984). The international migration situation changed dramatically subsequent
All other parameters were determined either by using shares for the base period, by dwelling on the literature on Ethiopia, or (when country-specific data were not available) by using plausible values for low-income developing countries in general. The elasticities of substitution on the production side were kept at relatively low values (see Appendix C). For instance, the elasticity of substitution between T and KP, σJ, was set to 0.3; the elasticity of substitution between LE and Kghea/POP<sup>θH</sup> , σT, was set to 0.3; and the elasticity of substitution between J and KGinf, σY, was set to 0.5. Measures of congestion effects were difficult to estimate, given the lack of information for developing countries in general. We used relatively low values to avoid putting undue weight on these parameters. Specifically, for the parameter capturing congestion effects in the education system, θE, we chose a value of 0.3; for the parameter determining the strength of congestion effects in the provision of health services, θH, we chose a value of 0.1; and for the parameter capturing congestion effects in infrastructure capital, θI, we chose a value of 0.2. Relatively small values (in the range of 2 to 4 percent) were also chosen for the depreciation rates of the various capital stocks, in line with available estimates. The long-run elasticity of transformation in domestic production was set at 0.3, whereas the long-run elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods was set at 0.4. We also assumed that the allocation of private expenditure between these goods (equation (A14)) occurs gradually, with an adjustment parameter that captures a low propensity to substitute between domestic and imported goods in the short run. Similarly, the allocation of domestic output between domestic sales and exports (equation (A4)) was also assumed to be subject to a partial adjustment process.

We calibrated the model for 2002, the most recent year for which we were able to construct a complete set of macro accounts. Data on national accounts, fiscal accounts, balance of payments (based on IMF estimates), and OECD data were combined to produce a consistent set of estimates (see Appendix C). Significant discrepancies appeared in the aid data between national sources, the OECD’s DAC database, and the fiscal and balance-of-payments accounts; we chose to use the OECD data, which are the most comprehensive, and adjusted the other information accordingly while keeping intact major equilibrium relationships (namely, the fiscal 31
variations in educational and welfare policies and regulations could help (partially) disentangle the contributions of different correlates of social mobility.

This paper analyzes the link between changes in intergenerational mobility and long-term development. The paper combines data on intergenerational educational mobility from three rounds of the Life in Transition Survey (2010, 2016, and 2022–23) (EBRD 2024), which covers more than 30 countries in Europe and Central Asia, and data from the Global Database on Intergenerational Mobility (GDIM, <u>Van der Weide and others 2023). Data on mobility is</u> complemented by data on present and past economic outcomes to form a panel of 68 countries over the period 2000-2020. This paper contributes to the literature on intergenerational mobility and development in two ways. Our primary contribution is that, unlike existing studies that focus on subnational districts or specific regions, we carry out a worldwide cross-country analysis of the relationship between intergenerational mobility and country income. This allows us to provide evidence of the nature of this relationship across different development contexts. The second contribution of our paper is to introduce a new measure of intergenerational mobility in education—the mobility gap—and compare its performance with several existing mobility measures. This paper presents the first empirical application of this new measure.

The patterns of intergenerational mobility across countries and generations vary significantly depending on the mobility measure used. In Europe and Central Asia, upward absolute mobility has been declining across birth cohorts, while relative mobility has not changed significantly, suggesting that an absolute reduction in intergenerational mobility in education may be common across the entire education distribution. South Asia has seen increases in absolute and relative mobility, while Latin America has experienced little change in absolute mobility but increases in relative mobility.

The empirical analysis of the association between intergenerational mobility and country income levels shows a significant context-specific relationship. Indicators of relative mobility in Europe and Central Asia are not correlated with country income levels over time. Only a specific dimension of absolute mobility—upward mobility in higher education (the probability that an individual whose parents did not achieve higher education does so)—shows a positive and statistically significant association with country income. In Latin America and the Caribbean, higher relative mobility is associated with lower income, while higher absolute mobility is 3
Policy Research Working Paper 10810

# **Abstract**

Whether and the extent to which social norms matter for women’s labor force participation has been shown to vary by context. This paper presents rigorous evidence on how these relationships hold in the case of Nepal, where female labor force participation remains among the lowest in the world. Using a representative survey covering four provinces in Nepal, data were collected from 2,000 married Nepali women and men on their own beliefs about norms-related behaviors, their expectations of how common it is for others in their social group to engage in those behaviors, and the expected social consequences surrounding those behaviors. Overall, the study finds that personal beliefs and social expectations are generally not very restrictive among respondents, and that there are limited linkages between social norms and women’s work outcomes. However, the study also shows that norms matter for selected subgroups and under certain circumstances that are related to the woman’s role as a mother and in the household as well as to her job characteristics. The findings indicate that relaxing norms in those specific circumstances can help to promote women’s labor force participation in Nepal.

This paper is a product of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at jalaref@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank. org, click **here** for direct access.

<!-- Start of picture text --> TRANSPARENT<br>ANALYSIS<br>G<br>R E<br>N<br>S<br>I P<br>Y E<br>K A<br>C A<br>R P<br>LI R<br>O E<br>O C<br>W R<br>H<br>S<br>P<br><!-- End of picture text --> _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
Policy Research Working Paper 8828

# **Abstract**

Electronic reverse auctions are the most used competitive method for procurement of goods and non-consulting services by the Federal Government of Brazil. These auctions are closed randomly, which perfectly satisfies fairness considerations but may be suboptimal from an efficiency perspective. There are concerns that tenders are closed too early and randomness favors bidders with algorithmic bidding software, leading to high prices. Hence, this paper investigates what would happen if the random closing rule was replaced by another rule. The paper uses the complete data set of completed electronic actions in 2015–17 comprising 112 million bids for 0.9 million items purchased. Exploiting the random closing rule, simple OLS models are run with a wide set of fixed effects as well as covariates capturing competition. The findings point at alternative strategies to optimize auction design: simple actions such as increasing the average and minimum length of the random phase can result in 2.8 and 0.6 percent price savings, respectively, or R$540 million and R$116 million per year; or more complex designs such as setting the length to the maximum for the random phase if there are 15 bidders or more can yield 2.6 percent or R$ 500 million a year in price savings, or doing the same if a large discount is placed within three minutes to closing can yield 1.1 percent lower prices or R$ 210 million a year in savings.

This paper is a product of the Governance Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at aoliveira@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team