rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Does aid help improve economic institutions
Aid is expected to promote better living
            standards by raising investment and growth. But aid may also
            affect institutions directly. In theory, these effects may
            or may not work in the same direction as those on
            investment. The authors examine the effect of aid on
            economic institutions and find that aid has neither a
            positive nor a negative impact on existing measures of
            economic institutions. They find the results using pooled
            data for non-overlapping five-year periods, confirmed by
            pooled annual regressions for a large panel of countries and
            by pure cross-section regressions. The authors explicitly
            allow for time invariant effects that are country specific
            and find the results to be robust to model specifications,
            estimation methods, and different data sets.
Measuring financial performance in
            infrastructure : an application to Europe and Central Asia
Unintentional implicit subsidies (hidden
            costs) to public utilities can be considered an illegitimate
            claim on public resources. This paper examines the role and
            sources of hidden costs in the energy and water sectors in
            the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region. It reviews
            available data and introduces a model-the Hidden Costs
            Calculator-that can be used to quantify the burden on
            governments of infrastructure policy and implementation
            decisions. This simple-to-apply model provides insight into
            three key components of hidden costs that affect
            infrastructure-poor bill collection rates, excessive losses
            due to inefficient operations or theft from the networks,
            and tariffs set below cost-recovery rates. The major
            advantage of this model is that, using existing data, it can
            provide a single measure for hidden costs that can be easily
            calculated, tracked, and reported. Therefore it can monitor
            and benchmark trends across sectors and countries without
            extensive or costly data collection. The model compares the
            difference between actual revenues and revenues that could
            be anticipated in a well-functioning system operating with
            cost-covering tariffs, bills paid, and losses normative for
            networks of a certain age and design. The underlying premise
            is that quantifying the order of magnitude of each component
            of hidden costs has potential for strengthening
            infrastructure policy dialogue and influencing
            decisionmakers who allocate scarce budgetary resources.
Assessing benefits of slum upgrading
            programs in second-best settings
Slum upgrading programs are being used
            by national and city governments in many countries to
            improve the welfare of households living in slum and
            squatter settlements. These programs typically include a
            combination of improvements in neighborhood infrastructure,
            land tenure, and building quality. In this paper, the
            authors develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to
            compare the effectiveness of alternative slum upgrading
            instruments in a second-best setting with distortions in the
            land and credit markets. They numerically test the model
            using data from three Brazilian cities and find that the
            performance of in situ slum upgrading depends on the
            severity of land and credit market distortions and how
            complementary policy initiatives are being implemented to
            correct for these problems. Pre-existing land supply and
            credit market distortions reduce the benefit-cost ratios
            across interventions, and change the rank ordering of
            preferred interventions. In the light of these findings, it
            appears that partial equilibrium analysis used in typical
            cost-benefit work overstates the stream of net benefits from
            upgrading interventions and may in fact propose a misleading
            sequence of interventions.
Investing cash transfers to raise
            long term living standards
The authors test whether poor households
            use cash transfers to invest in income generating activities
            that they otherwise would not have been able to do. Using
            data from a controlled randomized experiment, they find that
            transfers from the Oportunidades program to households in
            rural Mexico resulted in increased investment in
            micro-enterprise and agricultural activities. For each peso
            transferred, beneficiary households used 88 cents to
            purchase consumption goods and services, and invested the
            rest. The investments improved the household's ability
            to generate income with an estimated rate of return of 17.55
            percent, suggesting that these households were both
            liquidity and credit constrained. By investing transfers to
            raise income, beneficiary households were able to increase
            their consumption by 34 percent after five and a half years
            in the program. The results suggest that cash transfers to
            the poor may raise long-term living standards, which are
            maintained after program benefits end.
Infrastructure and growth in South
            Africa : direct and indirect productivity impacts of 19
            infrastructure measures
Empirical explorations of the growth and
            productivity impacts of infrastructure have been
            characterized by ambiguous (countervailing signs) results
            with little robustness. A number of explanations of the
            contradictory findings have been proposed. These range from
            the crowd-out of private by public sector investment,
            non-linearities generating the possibility of infrastructure
            overprovision, simultaneity between infrastructure provision
            and growth, and the possibility of multiple (hence indirect)
            channels of influence between infrastructure and
            productivity improvements. The authors explore these
            possibilities using panel data for South Africa over the
            1970-2000 period, and a range of 19 infrastructure measures.
            Using a number of alternative measures of productivity, the
            prevalence of ambiguous (countervailing signs) results, with
            little systematic pattern is also shown to hold for their
            data set in estimations that include the infrastructure
            measures in simple growth frameworks. The authors
            demonstrate that controlling for potential endogeneity of
            infrastructure in estimation robustly eliminates virtually
            all evidence of ambiguous impacts of infrastructure, due for
            example to possible overinvestment in infrastructure.
            Controlling for the possibility of endogeneity in the
            infrastructure measures renders the impact of infrastructure
            capital not only positive, but of economically meaningful
            magnitudes. These findings are invariant between the direct
            impact of infrastructure on labor productivity, and the
            indirect impact of infrastructure on total factor productivity.
The value of mortality risk
            reductions in Delhi, India
The authors interviewed commuters in
            Delhi, India, asking them to report their willingness to pay
            (WTP) to reduce their risk of dying in road traffic
            accidents in each of three scenarios that mirror the
            circumstances under which the majority of the road
            fatalities in Delhi occur. The WTP responses are internally
            valid, in the sense that WTP increases with the size of the
            risk reduction, income, and exposure to road traffic risks,
            as measured by length of commute and whether the respondent
            drives a two-wheeler. As a result, the "value of a
            statistical life" (VSL) is individuated-that is, it
            varies across groups of beneficiaries. For the most likely
            beneficiaries of road safety programs-the most highly
            exposed individuals-the VSL is about 150,000 PPP$.
The African Growth and Opportunity
            Act, exports, and development in Sub-Saharan Africa
The African Growth and Opportunity Act
            (AGOA) is the flagship of U.S. commercial and development
            policy with Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper looks at the
            impact of the trade preferences that are the central element
            of AGOA on African countries' exports to the U.S. and
            puts them in the perspective of the development of the
            region. The paper finds that, while stimulating export
            diversification in a few countries, AGOA has fallen short of
            the potential impetus that preferences could otherwise
            provide African exporters. The impact of AGOA would be
            enhanced if preferences were extended to all products. This
            means removing tariff barriers to a range of agricultural
            products and to textiles and a number of other manufactured
            goods. There also needs to be a fundamental change in
            approach to the rules of origin. Given the stage of
            development and economic size of Sub-Saharan Africa,
            nonrestrictive rules of origin are crucial. For all
            countries in Africa, those that have and those that have not
            benefited from preferences, there are enormous
            infrastructure weaknesses and often extremely poor policy
            environments that raise trade costs and push African
            producers further away from international markets. Effective
            trade preferences (those with nonrestrictive rules of
            origin) can provide a limited window of opportunity to
            exports while these key barriers to trade are addressed. But
            dealing with the barriers is the priority.
Local inequality and project choice
            : theory and evidence from Ecuador
This paper provides evidence consistent
            with elite capture of Social Fund investment projects in
            Ecuador. Exploiting a unique combination of data-sets on
            village-level income distributions, Social Fund project
            administration, and province level electoral results, the
            authors test a simple model of project choice when local
            political power is unequally distributed. In accordance with
            the predictions of the model, poorer villages are more
            likely to receive projects that provide excludable (private)
            goods to the poor, such as latrines. Controlling for
            poverty, more unequal communities are less likely to receive
            such projects. Consistent with the hypothesis of elite
            capture, these results are sensitive to the specific measure
            of inequality used in the empirical analysis, and are
            strongest for expenditure shares at the top of the distribution.
Dimensions of urban poverty in the
            Europe and Central Asia region
The objective of this study is to
            contribute to a better understanding of the extent and
            nature of poverty in urban areas in transition countries in
            Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, providing
            particular attention to the disparities within urban areas
            between capital cities and secondary cities, and focusing on
            dimensions of poverty related to provision of network
            infrastructure and energy services in cities. Household
            surveys carried out in 1998-2003 in 20 countries provided
            the data for the study. The study found substantial
            differences in urban areas between the capital and secondary
            cities, with households in secondary cities being worse off.
            In addition, secondary cities often had poverty indicators
            equivalent to, or worse than, those of rural areas,
            including in terms of access and quality (reliability) of
            infrastructure. The study confirmed that many households,
            especially in secondary cities, are
            "infrastructure-poor" because of unreliable and
            deteriorated services and that these households are hidden
            in studies that do not examine actual quality. Finally, the
            study found that income and infrastructure inequality are
            generally higher in urban areas, although inequality in
            secondary cities often was greater than that in the capitals.
Who gets debt relief
The authors use preliminary results from
            an ongoing effort to construct estimates of debt relief to
            study its allocation across a sample of 62 low-income
            countries. They find some evidence that debt relief,
            particularly from multilateral creditors, has been allocated
            to countries with better policies in recent years. Somewhat
            surprisingly, conditional on per capita incomes and policy,
            more indebted countries are not much more likely to receive
            debt relief. But countries that have large debts especially
            to multilateral creditors are more likely to receive debt
            relief. The authors do not find much evidence that debt
            relief responds to shocks to GDP growth. Finally, most of
            the persistence in debt relief is driven by slowly changing
            country characteristics, indicating that it may be difficult
            for countries to "exit" from cycles of repeated
            debt relief.
Latin American universities and the
            third mission : trends, challenges, and policy options
Universities in Latin America are
            increasingly considered instruments of social and economic
            development and face rising expectations in regard to
            supplying relevant skills, undertaking applied research, and
            engaging in commercial activity. The paper discusses trends
            and challenges within Latin American universities, as well
            as policy options available for strengthening their
            contributions to social and economic development. The
            so-called third mission of universities is often equated
            with knowledge transfer narrowly defined as licensing and
            commercialization of research. The paper adopts a broader
            approach and explores how the new role of universities
            affects all aspects of academic practice in Latin America,
            including advanced education and research. It concludes that
            policymakers and university managers in Latin America face
            an important challenge of defining a legal framework, sound
            management procedures, and notably, incentive systems that
            stimulate outreach and entrepreneurship among students and
            staff while recognizing and preserving the distinct roles of universities.
Access and risk - friends or foes
            Lessons from Chile
This paper documents the link between
            risk, stability, and access to credit markets in an emerging
            economy. It presents annual credit loss distributions of
            Chilean banks for the period 1999-2005, providing the first
            empirical evidence of the cyclical pattern of expected
            losses and unexpected losses of bank loan portfolios in
            emerging countries. The paper provides three main
            contributions to the debate on bank solvency and access to
            credit markets. First, it derives nonparametric estimators
            of expected losses and unexpected losses, free from model
            error and, in particular, from distributional restrictions.
            Second, it shows how the distribution of credit losses for
            portfolios of retail and commercial loans is affected by the
            lumpiness of bank loans. Finally, it shows that the shape of
            credit loss distributions helps select appropriate policies
            to promote broader and sounder access to bank credit for the
            poor and the unbanked.
The quality of fiscal adjustment and
            the long-run growth impact of fiscal policy in Brazil
The authors describe the main trends of
            Brazil's fiscal policy during the past decade and
            analyze (1) the ability to raise the primary surplus in
            response to external shocks, (2) the pro-cyclical nature of
            fiscal policy, and (3) the long-run impact of government
            expenditure composition and taxation. They analyze the use
            of the primary balance as a policy tool within the
            Drudi-Prati model, wherein the government uses the primary
            balance to reveal its commitment to service its debt. The
            authors verify that both the debt ratio and the primary
            balance are determinants of spreads and credit ratings in
            Brazil. But the relationship is nonlinear: the impact of the
            primary balance on spreads is amplified as the debt ratio
            increases. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
            approach, the authors analyze the relationship between the
            primary balance and economic activity, finding a positive
            correlation in the long run. However, in the short run
            fiscal expansions are associated with primary balance
            reductions and vice-versa during output contractions,
            confirming the procyclical nature of fiscal policy in the
            short run. The authors use two approaches, ARDL and a
            cointegrating value at risk (VAR), to analyze the
            interaction between public expenditure composition and
            taxation on growth. Similar results are obtained: large
            elasticities of output with respect to capital stocks, a
            significant negative impact of taxation on long-run GDP, and
            a negative impact of increasing government consumption and
            transfer payments on GDP. These results shed light on the
            contribution of fiscal policy to disappointing growth
            performance in Brazil during the past decade.
The quality of fiscal adjustment and
            the long-run growth impact of fiscal policy in Brazil
WPS4004

**_The Quality of Fiscal Adjustment and the Long-Run Growth Impact of Fiscal Policy in Brazil_**<sup>**1**</sup>

Fernando Blanco Santiago Herrera Abstract This paper describes the main trends of Brazil’s fiscal policy during the last decade and analyzes: (1) the ability to raise the primary surplus in response to external shocks, (2) the pro-cyclical nature of fiscal policy, and (3) the long-run impact of government expenditure composition and taxation.

The use of the primary balance as a policy tool is analyzed within the Drudi-Prati model, wherein the government uses the primary balance to reveal its commitment to service its debt. We verify that both the debt ratio and the primary balance are determinants of spreads and credit ratings in Brazil. However, the relationship is non-linear: the impact of the primary balance on spreads is amplified as the debt ratio increases.

Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, we analyze the relationship between the primary balance and economic activity, finding a positive correlation in the long run. However, in the short run, fiscal expansions are associated with primary balance reductions and vice-versa during output contractions confirming the procyclical nature of fiscal policy in the short run.

The paper uses two approaches, ARDL and a cointegrating VAR, to analyze the interaction between public expenditure composition and taxation on growth. Similar results are obtained: large elasticities of output with respect to capital stocks, a significant negative impact of taxation on long-run GDP, and a negative impact of increasing government consumption and transfer payments on GDP. These results shed light on the contribution of fiscal policy to disappointing growth performance in Brazil during the past decade.

# World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4004, September 2006

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> 1  The authors thank Gaobo Pang for helpful research assistance and Ethan Weisman for useful comments and suggestions. This paper is a rejoinder of several technical background papers by the authors for the Brazil Country Economic Memorandum (Report 25278-BR).  A version of this paper was presented at the EcoMod Policy Modeling Conference in Paris, June 2004.  Corresponding author: sherrera@worldbank.org
Financial system structure in
            Colombia : a proposal for a reform agenda
The objective of this policy paper is to
            identify and propose high-level legal and regulatory reforms
            to Colombia's financial system structure that would
            enhance efficiency and/or mitigate risks. Five specific and
            four general reforms are proposed and evaluated based on
            their compatibility with the aforementioned objectives, ease
            of implementation, impact, and consistency with
            international practice. Potential implications for
            supervision and competition, as well as likely criteria for
            developing a carefully sequenced reform roadmap, are also highlighted.