||**Table 7. Growth**<br>**Panel A: Bank Loa**|**in Active Links**<br>**ns and Deposits**||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Level of Data Aggregation**|**Region-Region**|**Country-Region**|**Cou**|**ntry-Countr**|**y**|
|**Estimation Method [Dep. Variable]**|**Poisson [No. Links]**|**Poisson [No. Links]**|**Logit [Dumm**|**y=1 if Non-**|**zero Link]**|
||||Marginal<br>Effect|Baseline<br>Probability|Probability<br>Growth|
|North-to-North Trend|0.001|0.001 *|0.000|92%|0.0%|
||(0.002)|(0.000)|(0.000)|||
|North-to-South Trend|0.009 ***<br>(0.001)|0.009 ***<br>(0.001)|0.004 ***<br>(0.000)|50%|0.7%|
|South-to-North Trend|0.009 ***<br>(0.001)|0.009 ***<br>(0.002)|0.004 ***<br>(0.000)|60%|0.7%|
|South-to-South Trend|0.054 ***|0.054 ***|0.005 ***|28%|1.5%|
||(0.001)|(0.006)|(0.000)|||
|**Wald Tests on Trend Coefficients:**||||||
|1. South-to-South = North-to-North|0.053 ***|0.053 ***||||
|2. South Destination = North Destination|0.026 ***|0.026 ***||||
|3. South Source = North Source|0.026 ***|0.026 ***||||
|**Fixed Effects**|R-R|C-R|R-R|||
|**Number of Observations**|72|13,968|215,216|||

|**Wald Tests on Trend Coefficients:**<br>1. South-to-South = North-to-North<br>2. South Destination = North Destination<br>3. South Source = North Source<br>**Fixed Effects**<br>**Number of Observations**<br>**Level of Data Aggregation**|0.053 ***<br>0.026 ***<br>0.026 ***<br>R-R<br>72<br>**Panel B: Portfol**<br>**Region-Region**|0.053 ***<br>0.026 ***<br>0.026 ***<br>C-R<br>13,968<br>**io Investment**<br>**Country-Region**|R-R<br>215,216<br>**Cou**|**ntry-Countr**|**y**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Estimation Method [Dep. Variable]**|**Poisson [No. Links]**|**Poisson [No. Links]**|**Logit [Dumm**|**y=1 if Non-**|**zero Link]**|
||||Marginal<br>Effect|Baseline<br>Probability|Probability<br>Growth|
|North-to-North Trend|0.000<br>(0.002)|0.000<br>(0.000)|0.000<br>(0.000)|97%|0.0%|
|North-to-South Trend|0.030 ***<br>(0.001)|0.030 ***<br>(0.003)|0.015 ***<br>(0.001)|39%|3.0%|
|South-to-North Trend|0.032 ***|0.020 ***|0.000|90%|0.0%|
||(0.002)|(0.002)|(0.001)|||
|South-to-South Trend|0.081 ***<br>(0.001)|0.069 ***<br>(0.003)|0.005 ***<br>(0.001)|25%|1.7%|
|**Wald Tests on Trend Coefficients:**||||||
|1. South-to-South = North-to-North|0.081 ***|0.069 ***||||
|2. South Destination = North Destination|0.040 ***|0.039 ***||||
|3. South Source = North Source|0.041 ***|0.030 ***||||
|**Fixed Effects**|R-R|C-R|R-R|||
|**Number of Observations**|72|9,979|154,014|||

|**Wald Tests on Trend Coefficients:**<br>1. South-to-South = North-to-North<br>2. South Destination = North Destination<br>3. South Source = North Source<br>**Fixed Effects**<br>**Number of Observations**<br>**Level of Data Aggregation**|0.081 ***<br>0.040 ***<br>0.041 ***<br>R-R<br>72<br>**Panel C: Foreign D**<br>**Region-Region**|0.069 ***<br>0.039 ***<br>0.030 ***<br>C-R<br>9,979<br>**irect Investment**<br>**Country-Region**|R-R<br>154,014<br>**Cou**|**ntry-Countr**|**y**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Estimation Method [Dep. Variable]**|**Poisson [No. Links]**|**Poisson [No. Links]**|**Logit [Dumm**|**y=1 if Non-**|**zero Link]**|
||||Marginal<br>Effect|Baseline<br>Probability|Probability<br>Growth|
|North-to-North Trend|0.006 **<br>(0.002)|0.006 ***<br>(0.001)|0.005 ***<br>(0.001)|89%|0.6%|
|North-to-South Trend|0.059 ***<br>(0.001)|0.059 ***<br>(0.005)|0.025 ***<br>(0.001)|25%|6.1%|
|South-to-North Trend|0.096 ***|0.098 ***|0.035 ***|28%|7.3%|
||(0.002)|(0.005)|(0.001)|||
|South-to-South Trend|0.124 ***|0.125 ***|0.025 ***|5%|14.5%|
||(0.001)|(0.005)|(0.000)|||
|**Wald Tests on Trend Coefficients:**||||||
|1. South-to-South = North-to-North|0.118 ***|0.120 ***||||
|2. South Destination = North Destination|0.041 ***|0.041 ***||||
|3. South Source = North Source|0.078 ***|0.079 ***||||
|**Fixed Effects**|R-R|C-R|R-R|||
|**Number of Observations**|72|11,673|291,604|||

Note: This table shows the trends in active links for 2001-18. The estimation methods are Poisson and logit. For the Poisson regressions, the dependent variable is the number of active links. Active links refer to country pairs that have a positive value. For these regressions, we report the estimated coefficients. For the logit regressions, the dependent variable is an indicator variable that takes value 1 whenever a country pair has a positive value and 0 if the value is zero. Country pairs with a missing value are not considered. For these regressions, we report the average marginal effect, the estimated probability for the first period of the sample (trend=0), and the average annual percentage change in the predicted probabilities. There are three levels of data aggregation: region-to-region (R-R), country-to-region (C-R), and countryto-country (C-C). Regressions include R-R or C-R fixed effects. For the C-R and the C-C regressions, standard errors are clustered by C-R and C-C pairs, respectively. *, **, and *** represent statistical significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively.