rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
pluralistic ignorance about the general attitude towards women working, the practical/structural dimensions of work appear to be less influenced by what others think.

Social empirical expectations (e.g., how many women where you live work, work if married, work and return after 5 pm, etc.) were lower than social normative expectations across the board. Respondents also tended to believe that women worked, in the various scenarios, at lower rates than the respondents themselves endorsed (in their own personal beliefs). Interestingly, respondents significantly overestimated the actual level of FLFP around them (51% compared to 14% in reality).

A second set of questions explored prejudices and concerns regarding working women and their families. For the most part, personal beliefs and social expectations closely tracked (Figure 4). But when it came to the effect of a woman working on the family’s status and the husband’s reputation (e.g., when a woman works, it shows that her husband cannot provide, is not in charge, shows the family is not traditional), social empirical expectations were far more negative than personal beliefs. This suggests that the pluralistic ignorance regarding the “breadwinner norm” may inhibit FLFP in Jordan- women and men worry that a woman working will make the husband appear to be less “masculine,” even if they themselves do not believe it should.

Putting this together with generalized pluralistic ignorance and the “protection norm” above, the three domains ripe for social norms messaging regarding FLFP in Jordan may be: a) most people support FLFP, contrary to their expectations regarding the conservatism of others; b) women can work safely and avoid putting their reputations at risk, because this is a widely held concern; and c) most people overestimate the reputational cost to the family and the husband when a woman works. At the same time, people seem to have widely shard personal beliefs regarding the circumstances and conditions under which it is okay for a woman to work, which suggests that job design is an important part of the FLFP agenda, as well.

**Figure 4. Do working women risk safety and reputation?**

**Personal Beliefs, Social Empirical Expectations, and Social Normative Expectations**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 100%<br>90%<br>80%<br>70%<br>60%<br>50%<br>40%<br>30%<br>20%<br>10%<br>0%<br>Exposed to Have financial Husband cannot Husband not in<br>Risk reputation Not traditional<br>harassment need provide charge<br>PB 44% 35% 70% 8% 19% 10%<br>SE 26% 17% 84% 31% 52% 31%<br>SN 41% 37% 75% 24% 32% 25%<br><!-- End of picture text --> 12
# **China’s Employment Challenges and Strategies after the WTO Accession**

## **Douglas Zhihua Zeng**<sup>∗</sup>

### **-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Abstract**

Although China has made impressive progress in economic development and improving social well-being, it is facing many daunting challenges while transforming toward a knowledge and service-based economy and further opening up to international competition after its WTO accession in the context of knowledge revolution. One of the biggest challenges is how to create 100–300 million new jobs in the coming decade to absorb the millions of laid-offs, rural emigrants and newly added labor force. China has been successful in building high-tech parks and ICT industries, but they are limited in terms of employment generation, while most of the traditional labor-intensive industries are losing competitiveness due to low productivity. In order to combat the unprecedented employment challenge, China must implement a systemic and sustained strategy, which may consist of the following policy thrusts: encouraging the private sector; promoting small and medium enterprises; expanding the service sector; reforming the state-owned enterprises; strengthening the social security system; improving labor market flexibility; and establishing mass retraining programs.

_Keywords: China; employment; challenges; strategies; WTO accession; productivity; labor market._

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

## World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3522, February 2005

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._ ∗ The author is an Economist at the World Bank, Washington, D.C. Address: 1818 H St., NW, Washington, D.C., 20433, USA. Email: <u>Zzeng@worldbank.org. He participated in the research and writing of the</u> following World Bank reports – _China & Knowledge Economy: Seizing the 21_<sup>_st_</sup> _Century_ (2001), and _Chile New Economy Study_ (2003).

1
**Table 4:  External Finance in Mongolia is not Costly**

||**1996**|**1997**|**1998**|**1999**|**2000**|**2001**|**2002**|**2003**|**2004**|**Period**<br>**Average**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|External debt (% of GNI)|||||||||||
|Mongolia|45.8|58.3|74.7|102.4|96.0|87.2|93.1|116.6|94.7|85.4|
|Cambodia|68.9|70.2|80.5|73.5|74.4|73.9|74.1|75.3|72.5|73.7|
|Vietnam|108.2|82.6|84.1|82.0|41.7|39.0|38.7|40.6|40.1|61.9|
|Azerbaijan|14.1|12.9|16.0|23.7|27.2|24.2|25.6|25.5|25.4|21.6|
|Kazakhstan|14.0|18.7|27.9|37.5|72.5|70.8|73.3|78.2|85.1|53.1|
|Kyrgyz republic|63.6|78.7|96.1|147.7|142.1|117.5|119.5|109.2|99.3|108.2|
|Uzbekistan|17.1|19.9|22.5|29.1|34.1|43.4|50.1|50.1|42.0|34.3|
|Ghana|85.3|84.6|86.2|85.1|126.6|121.9|115.4|101.2|80.0|98.5|
|Uruguay|29.4|31.1|34.8|35.8|40.0|53.2|87.3|106.4|97.7|57.3|
|East Asia & Pacific|33.4|34.3|38.4|35.3|29.7|28.9|25.9|24.0|22.5|30.3|
|Low income countries|53.2|48.8|51.1|48.0|44.8|41.7|41.4|39.4|35.6|44.9|
|Concessional debt (% of tot|al extern|al debt)|||||||||
|Mongolia|76.2|81.7|87.0|89.6|91.2|91.5|90.3|76.3|85.2|85.4|
|Cambodia|90.8|90.5|90.5|90.2|88.2|88.4|88.9|89.3|89.0|89.5|
|Vietnam|75.8|15.3|20.0|24.0|61.3|66.4|72.4|73.9|71.4|53.4|
|Azerbaijan|14.7|23.2|23.3|28.3|29.4|35.4|46.1|53.8|57.7|34.7|
|Kazakhstan|4.4|4.1|4.4|6.5|3.3|2.6|2.9|3.3|3.0|3.8|
|Kyrgyz republic|32.3|34.6|41.9|46.1|48.2|56.6|62.5|68.0|74.5|51.6|
|Uzbekistan|25.9|27.1|28.7|26.6|30.4|30.1|32.7|35.6|37.6|30.5|
|Ghana|62.9|65.7|68.1|70.7|73.3|70.4|71.7|75.0|74.3|70.2|
|Uruguay|3.6|3.5|3.2|3.3|2.6|2.1|1.7|1.5|1.4|2.6|
|East Asia & Pacific|19.2|14.1|17.7|20.0|20.9|19.3|21.2|22.3|22.1|19.6|
|Low income countries|49.4|45.8|47.5|49.4|49.0|50.2|52.9|56.9|56.4|50.8|
|Short-term debt (% of total|external|debt)|||||||||
|Mongolia|0.9|4.2|3.9|2.4|1.4|1.6|4.3|19.4|11.0|5.4|
|Cambodia|4.5|5.2|5.5|6.0|8.6|8.3|7.5|7.1|7.8|6.7|
|Vietnam|14.3|10.8|9.8|10.2|7.2|6.2|5.9|8.1|12.0|9.4|
|Azerbaijan|3.5|0.8|0.2|2.7|11.6|7.9|5.5|5.9|6.9|5.0|
|Kazakhstan|7.6|8.6|7.0|7.7|7.7|9.0|10.7|12.5|11.1|9.1|
|Kyrgyz republic|0.8|2.5|1.9|3.5|7.1|2.8|1.0|1.9|0.4|2.4|
|Uzbekistan|3.8|14.5|4.4|12.7|6.1|10.4|6.9|4.4|3.6|7.4|
|Ghana|11.2|11.7|11.3|11.0|9.4|8.7|8.5|9.2|10.0|10.1|
|Uruguay|28.2|28.5|26.5|24.0|23.5|30.3|15.1|12.6|16.0|22.7|
|East Asia & Pacific|26.1|25.1|15.9|13.5|12.6|20.5|22.7|26.0|29.7|21.3|
|Low income countries|11.8|10.7|10.0|10.0|8.0|7.8|7.5|7.6|8.5|9.1|

_Source: World Bank (SIMA); Data for 2005 were not available._

# **_3.2.2 Is the nature of  local finance the reason for the high cost of capital?_**

Looking at the cost and access to domestic financing, domestic savings have fluctuated a lot during the past decade, but on a trend basis have increased substantially in the past few years. As a share of GDP, domestic saving fell from 19 percent in 2001 to 11 percent a year later,<sup>20</sup> but increased to 25 percent in 2004, and rose again slightly thereafter (Table 5). Although low compared to saving in East Asian countries, the average ratio of 20 The fall in domestic saving in 2002 reflected the shock of bad weather to agriculture.

12
Figure 2: DVAR Trend (2000-2007) by Industry with 95% (Bootstrapped) Con...dence Intervals <!-- Start of picture text --> 04:beverages & spirit 06:chemical products 07:plastics & rubber 08:raw hides & skins<br>09:wood & articles * 10:pulp of wood 11:textiles 12:footwear & headgear, etc.<br>13:stone, plaster, cement, etc. 14:precious metals 15:base metals * 16 : machinery, mechnical & elec eqm t<br>2000 2002 2004 2006<br>17:vehicles & aircrafts 18:optical, photographic, etc. 20:misc manufacturing<br>2000 2002 2004 2006 2000 2002 2004 2006 2000 2002 2004 2006<br>year<br>Dashed lines = 95% confidence interval. * = industries with average DVAR lower in 2007 than 2000.<br>1<br>.5<br>0<br>1<br>.5<br>0<br>1<br>.5<br>0<br>1<br>.5<br>0<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 3: Decomposing the DVAR Growth into Within- and Between-industry Growth <!-- Start of picture text --> 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br>year<br>within between<br>total change<br>.1<br>.08<br>.06<br>.04<br>.02<br>0<br>-.02<br><!-- End of picture text --> 45
5 markedly asymmetric, with a pronounced tendency towards large depreciations. Further, the distribution tends to excese kurtosis, with much fatter tails than the normal (Gaussian) distribution.

A .nultilateral RER index was constructed for 68 developing countries<sup>2</sup> and 19 OECD and Southern European countries. The 68 develcping countries are divided into the primary sample of 56 countries with managed exchange rates, 10 African Franc zone countries, and 2 "dollar" developing countries. The RER index in period t for country j is: The CPI of the home country (pi) is used to proxy the price of nontradables. The price of foreign goods (measured by ep*, where e is the nominal exchange rate, local currency per dollar, zii are the shares of country i in country J's trade in 1980, pi are the wholesale prices, in dollars, of country i) is used to proxy the price of tradables. While there are serious objec ions to this method of measuring the RER, the limitations imposed by multi-country comparability preclude measuring home and traded goods prices directly as would be suggested by the popular definition of the RER as the relative price of nontradables to tradables. The defense of this RER index is twofold. First, even if it is not theoretically appropriate, this index (or some variant thereof) is what is generally monitored and so is of independent interest. Secondly, nearly all of the empirical work on RER variability has used a RER index of this type.

Empirical work on RER behavior has focussed on the level of the RER (Edwards 1989, 1987). However, evidence strongly suggests that RER levels in most developing countries are not stationary. Only two of 56 countries could reject the standard test for the presence of a unit root and 42 (75%) have a 2 The RER index for the was constructed by Francis Ng at the World Bank using exchange rate and price data from the IMF's International Financial Statistics and partner trade weights derived from IMF's Direction of Trade.
new technologies, despite its low income levels, making it all the more important to the global industry.

Notwithstanding China’s entry into the WTO, the Chinese government’s concern to strengthen the skills and eventually the autonomy of local firms is unlikely to fade. The rapidly growing domestic market and the sharp increase in local capacities give China valuable cards and the government is likely to play them aggressively. Compromise will often be possible, but as demand grows the terms the terms likely will increasingly favor China.

# _Auto Parts Location and Production_

Many parts producers are linked to state, provincial or municipal conglomerates, though private firms are increasingly active. Quality and delivery times, though greatly improved, are still weak, particularly at lower tiers of the supply pyramid. Even joint ventures are often plagued with excess labor. Design capacities of local firms vary but are generally low.

A survey of auto parts production in 2002 by the National Bureau of Statistics identified 4,210 firms producing 233 billion yuan, or about USD $28.2 billion at current exchange rates, up 30.9 percent over 2001. The reported rate of profitability was 7.5 percent, up 0.8 percentage points over 2001. Thirteen of the top 50 firms reported some foreign capital, mostly from the U.S. and Germany; very little, at least among the top 50, came from Japan. Of the top ten, only two were foreign-capital related: a Visteon-Johnson Controls joint venture producing seats (number seven) and a fuel injection venture with Germany’s Bosch (number nine). Foreigncapital firms were unusually profitable, however, capturing 26 of the top 50 spots for profitability and accounting for 23 percent of total industry profits. Of the top ten firms, only two belonged to SOE groups: a FAW affiliate at number six and a Dongfeng affiliate at number ten. (Fourin, _Chûgoku Jidôsha Chôsa Geppô_ 88, July 2003: 14-19). A number of the largest firms were private, including three of the four largest: the runaway leader, Wanxiang of Zhejiang, a producer of bearings, CV and universal joints with an impressive commitment to 44
**Table 9:** The effect of visa provision on the bilateral migration stocks: interaction with the share of right wing vote at destination.

|Dep var:|Bilateral Sto|ck of Migrants|
|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|
|Visa|0.083***|0.092***|
||(0.032)|(0.032)|
|Visa _×_ Right wing vote (sh)|-0.094|-0.136*|
||(0.078)|(0.079)|
|RTA|0.059*|0.065**|
||(0.033)|(0.033)|
|Schenghen||0.183***<br>(0.043)|
|GDP diference (ln)|0.008|0.004|
||(0.008)|(0.008)|
|Estimator|PPML|PPML|
|Country-Year Fixed Efects|Yes|Yes|
|Country-Pair Fixed Efects|Yes|Yes|
|Sample period|1990-2020|1990-2020|
|Observations|34,722|34,722|
|Pseudo R-squared|0.99|0.99|

Note: Dependent variable is the stock of immigrants in country _j_ originating from _i_ . The share of vite for right wing party is comprised between 0 and 1; with median value of 0.09 (i.e. 9% of votes) and maximum value of 0.54 (i.e. 54%).Robust standard errors in parentheses. ***, **, * significantly different from 0 at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels respectively.

30
our regressions. This result is robust across all our specifications and holds using the traditional measure of rigid expenditure as well as the structural one.

Table 5

|Dependent variable: F|iscal adjus|tment whe|n needed b|ased on Esc|olano et a|l.(2014)|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Variables|(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|
|Rigid expenditure|-0.014|-0.023***|-0.014|-0.027***|-0.016*|0.073**|-0.080***|-0.062***|
|(% of GDP)|(0.014)|(0.008)|(0.013)|(0.008)|(0.008)|(0.028)|(0.028)|(0.019)|
|**Economic factors**|||||||||
|GDP growth (t-1)||-0.043||0.479|0.520|0.443|0.400|0.436|
|||(1.337)||(1.418)|(1.392)|(1.393)|(1.419)|(1.416)|
|Inflation (t-1)||2.500***||2.721**|3.068***|2.991***|3.219***|2.570**|
|||(0.844)||(1.098)|(1.114)|(1.084)|(1.000)|(1.173)|
|U.S. Interest rate||-0.122**<br>(0.051)||-0.157**<br>(0.063)|-0.175** <br>(0.072)|-0.204*** <br>(0.059)|-0.192** <br>(0.072)|-0.172***<br>(0.051)|
|**Political factors**|||||||||
|Gini|||0.010|0.012|0.014|0.079***|0.014|0.005|
||||(0.010)|(0.012)|(0.012)|(0.023)|(0.012)|(0.011)|
|Rule of law|||-0.214***|0.091|0.140|0.160|-0.124|0.090|
||||(0.068)|(0.131)|(0.146)|(0.133)|(0.127)|(0.132)|
|Margin of Majority|||0.516|0.250|0.236|0.451|0.243|-1.486*|
||||(0.406)|(0.385)|(0.379)|(0.360)|(0.375)|(0.800)|
|Election's year|||-0.111|-0.093|-0.085|-0.074|-0.084|-0.079|
||||(0.081)|(0.078)|(0.075)|(0.074)|(0.078)|(0.081)|
|**Interactions**|||||||||
|EMEs * Rigidity|||||-0.032<br>(0.029)||||
|Gini * Rigidity||||||-0.003***<br>(0.001)|||
|Rule of law * Rigidity|||||||0.012**<br>(0.005)||
|Majority * Rigidity||||||||0.072*<br>(0.041)|
|Constant|0.611|1.167***|0.758|0.456|0.349|-2.486**|1.414|1.601*|
||(0.393)|(0.288)|(0.675)|(0.923)|(0.860)|(1.225)|(0.910)|(0.931)|
|Observations|185|183|165|163|163|163|163|163|
|R-squared|0.007|0.114|0.073|0.159|0.167|0.191|0.177|0.187|
|Number of ifscode|60|60|53|53|53|53|53|53|
|CountryFE|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Robust standard error<br>***p<0.01,**p<0.05|s clustere<br>,*p<0.1|d by country|in parenth|eses|||||

- 23 -
- 88 -

# able 29: CHOICE OF EMPLOYMENT STATUS - PROBIT RESULTS, BY LOCATION

||Abi|djan|Other|Cities|Rural A|reas|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Intercept|-1.117|(0.9)|-3.98|(6.8)|<br>-3.97|(8.3)|
|Years of Primary Education|.038|(0.6)|<br>.104|(2.8)|<br>.036|<br>(0.9)|
|Years of Secondary Education|-.063|(0.8)|<br>.079|(1.4)|<br>.644<br>|<br>(12.8)|
|Years of Higher Education|.420|(1.8)|<br>.576|(1.3)|<br>1||
|Years of Secondary VTE|.146|(1.1)<br>|<br>320<br>|(3.8)|<br>1.08|(21.3)|
|Years of Other VTE|-.397|(0.8)|1||||
|Years of Apprenticeship|-.073|(1.6)|<br>-.011|(0.3)|<br>-.186|(2.7)|
|CEPE|.261|(0.6)|<br>.116|(0.5)|<br>-1.57|(6.2)|
|BEPC|.239|(0.3)|<br>.332|(0.8)|<br>-|_|
|Secondary VTE Diploma|.019|(0.1)|<br>- 1/|<br>-|-|-|
|Other VTE Diploma|.814|(0.6)|<br>- T/|<br>-|_|_|
|Other Diploma|-1.07|(1.1)|<br>- D|-|-|-|
|Age|.208|(3.1)|<br>.181|(5.3)|<br>.106|<br>(3.7)|
|(Age)<sup>2</sup>|-.0029|<br>(3.4)|<br>-.0023|<br>(4.9)|<br>-.0013|<br>(3.4)|
|Female without Child < 5 Years|-1.28|(4.5)|<br>-.650|(2.3)|<br>-1.07|(5.1)|
|Female with Chill < 5 years|-1.65|(6.5)|<br>-.866|(5.4)||(|
|Non-Ivorian|-1.07|(5.0)|<br>-.011|(0.1)|<br>.835|<br>(4.5)|
|Years of Resiuence Since Migration<br>|-.036|(1.3)|<br>.038|(1.7)|<br>.065|<br>(2.4)|
|(Years of Residence Since Migration)<br>2|.0012|<br>(1.6)|-.0015|<br>(1.9)|<br>-.0027|<br>(2.3)|
|Household Enterprises|-1.33|(9.4)|<br>-.185|(2.9)|<br>-.424|(3.5)|
|Log-<br>likelihood|-132.|84|-236|.57|-3|06.28|
|Chi-<br>squared|376.|52|343|.06||_|
|Significance Level|.1E-|6|.1E|-6||_|
|Z Correct Predictions|89||8|8||98|

Note: Coefficients pertain to the likelihood to become a wage-earner. Absolute asymptotic t-values in parentheses.

1/ Not included for collinearity reasons.

2/ Included in BEPC.
and schools through their effects on the placement and route choice of transportation such as highways and rail road.<sup>30</sup> One might also include county (or province) fixed effects as important determinants of heteroskedasticity in parent’s education. As discussed by Klein and Vella (2009, 2010), such fixed effects only account for the average differences across different groups of households, but the variance across different groups can be significantly different. In the context of rural China, the variance might reflect unobserved heterogeneity across households in a county in relevant factors such as costs of schooling and cultural differences in non‐market valuation of education. Other locational indicators such as suburb of large city can also generate heteroskedasticity for similar reasons. Membership in cohesive social groups such as ethnic minority status can reduce the variance in educational attainment due to homogeneity in valuation of education and also less variance in genetic ability because of assortative matching in marriage market based on ethnic identity.<sup>31</sup> While the _a priori_ plausibility of the variables generating heteroskedasticity is important for transparent foundation of the identification scheme, the identification ultimately depends on whether there is in fact significant heteroskedasticity in the data. To understand the nature and amount of heteroskedasticity in parental education, we report results from hetersokedastic probit model as Harvey (1976) as discussed above. The results from the likelihood ratio test for the null of homoskedasticity are reported in Table 4. The evidence clearly shows that there is substantial heteroskedasticity in parental education, and the amount of heteroskedasticity has increased substantially from 1988 to 2002. The full results from the estimated heteroskedastic probit model are reported in appendix 3. The results in appendix 3 show that heteroskedasticity

> 30 For a discussion of the role of topography in determining access to markets in rural China, see Emran and Hou (2013) and Deichman et al. (2010)

> 31 The available evidence from anthropological studies show that different ethnic groups in China value education differently.

26
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