8 _Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper Serles_ sources in the developing countries, would a world health survey complement these health information systems and contribute to long-term health care? Is it reasonable to expect that such a survey could identify the patterns and causes of disease and at the same time measure the effectiveness of investments in health?

Although a series of coordinated country health studies could be valuable, there are many tradeoffs. Considering the variety ofhealth problems and priorities in developing countries, it is probably more important to develop the expertise to conduct and analyze health studies than to devise a standard questionnaire to collect health data. As for the cost-effectiveness of health programs, a world health survey is not the appropriate vehicle for such evaluations, but it can address such concerns as access, coverage, patient costs, and financing systems.

This paper is a product of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division, Population and Human Resources Department. Please contact Anelia Menciano, room S6278, extension 33612.

## 14. The Optimal **Currency** Composition of External **Debt**

* Theeffectsofexchangeratesonexpected receipts and payments in foreign currencies.

What ifa country only wants tohedge itself against the impact of commodity price and exchange rate movements and does not want to speculate on relative exchange rate movements? Its optimal currency composition will then hinge on the covariances between commodity prices and exchange rates, the covariances between exchange rates, and expected net foreign currency receipts. This paper is a product ofthe Office of the Vice President, Development Economics. Please contact Sook Bertelsmeier, room S9-040, extension 33768.

## 15. Stimulating Agricultural

# **Growth and** Rural **Development** In **Sub-Saharan Africa**

## Vijay S. Vyas and Dennis Casley

_Restoring agricultural growth in Africa will require new production technologies appropriatefordifferentfarming systems. It will also require eliminating government policies that discriminate against farmers._

## ments,

* Changes ininstitutions-as more formal credit and marketing services become available.

Equally crucial to Africa's agricultural development will be parallel efforts to remove policy barriers that have undercut agricultural production or hurt agricultural productivity. These barriers include high taxes, price controls, unfavorable exchange rates, and inefficient parastatal marketing boards.

In addition to policy reform, longterm improvement in African agriculture will require developing and extending new production tech-nologies. It will also require creating institutional structures to strengthen national research capabilities, and designing policies and investment strategies to improve the links between the farm and nonfarm sectors in rural areas.

This paper is a product ofthe Agriculture and Rural Development Department. Please contact Hilda Vallanasco, room J2-262, extension 37591.

# 16. **Antidumping Laws and Developing Countries**

## Patrick Messerlin

## Stijn Claessens

_By choosing the appropriate currency composition of their external debts, developing countries can reduce the exposures associated with exchange rates, interest rate, and commodity price uncertainties._ The increased volatility of exchange rates, interest rates, and goods prices has focused fresh attention on the importance for developing countries of reducing their risks in these markets. These countries generally cannot use such conventional hedging instruments as currency and commodity futures because of a variety of institutional and other constraints. But they can use the currency composition of their external debt to hedge against exchange rates and commodity prices.

The optimal currency composition of their foreign debt portfolios depends on the following factors:

* Domestic production structures.

* The shares of spending on different goods by consumers.

* The relationship between prices for domestic goods and exchange rates.

* The costs and risks ofborrowing in foreign currencies.

Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa depends on reversing the region's deterioration in agricultural performance - a reversal that is crucial both for meeting domestic consumption needs and for generating foreign exchange earnings through exports. But efforts to restore agricultural growth are hampered by the ecology of the region, undermined by policies that jeopardize agricultural and rural development, and complicated by sluggish global economic growth as well as agricultural policies in industrial countries.

Given the region's necessary transition from a land-extensive to a land-intensive farming system, attempts to improve agricultural production and to lay the groundwork for sustained rural development will depend on the correct choice of policies. In making these choices, policymakers must consider some important changes in African agriculture:

* Changes in farming systems - from slash- and-burn to multiple-cropping,

> * Changes in land rights-from collective ownership to contractual arrange-

_Antidumping laws can be a back door to protection, jeopardizing trade liberalization in developing countries._ Current GATT-consistent antidumping laws have a strong protectionist drift and a pro-cartel bias. They endanger the very edifice of the international trade system based on GATT rules.

LDCs and NICs are deeply involved in antidumping actions, both as defendants and as prosecutors. Their exports represent 50 to 60 percent of the new cases investigated by the United States and the European Community. They are hurt not only by antidumping actions initiated by other countries but by their own antidumping laws, which may jeopardize their trade liberalization programs.

LDC and NIC involvement in antidumping matters will be along-term phenomenon,asitisnotrelatedto short-term macroeconomic variations. In the Uruguay Round, LDCs and NICs should play an active role in reforming GATT rules to reduce the GATT bias in favor of 'injured industries" that compete for imports and to make GATT rules conform more to