48 in 1985, to 2.8 percent in 1986, 1.7 percent in 1987, and 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 1988 (Jones, 1988). Moreover, the level of underemployment (based on hours of work) is extremely low.

Besides attracting more immigrants, this situation may also help curtail emigration, at least in the short run. However, there is still a substantial desire to emigrate. In June, 1987, a random probability sample survey of 1,000 adults, conducted by Survey Research Hong Kong, measured the percentage of households with overseas interests. The survey found that 11 percent of the households had at least one member with a right to overseas residency and an additional 11 percent had at least one member who intended to emigrate sometime in the future (Survey Research Group, 1987). T*is would seem to indicate two offsetting phenomena. On the one hand, the s'ze of the group intending to emigrate indicates a substantial potential for future emigration (although clearly not a panic to do so). On the other hand, the survey supports the contention that many persons who have immigrant visas in other countries continue to physically live in Hong Kong.

Immigration statistics from the United States and Canada give mixed signals about the trend in actual emigration from Hong Kong. Immigration to the United States of persons born in Hong Kong has been dropping steadily for the past four years and immigration of persons who list Hong Kong as their country of last permanent residence has also been declining. On the other hand, immigration to Canada has been rising fairly steadily throughout the 1980s. After a slight reversal in 1986, immigration from Hong Kong skyrocketed to 16,170 in 1987 (more than double its previous annual highest level). There are also currently about 15,000 residents of Hong Kong who have the right of abode in the United Kingdom (Coleman, 1987), but it is not clear how many of them will actually leave Hong Kong in the next few years.

Pogulation Projections. The latest set of projections from the Census and Statistics Department cover the period 1987-2006. The projections assume a net immigration level of 13,800 per year in 1987-1991, 13,900 per year in 1992-1998, and 14,000 per year in 1999-2006. The rationale for these assumptions is given in the following quote from the report (Census and Statistics Department, 1987:5): In Hong Kong, migration is a significant element affecting the growth of the population. In the past, it has been influenced by factors which could not have been accurately predicted. The possibility of such factors recurring cannot be ruled out. In the context of this lon&-term population projection, the projection of the migration component was based on an analysis of the past trends and of more recent developments, taking into account existing Government policies. It was assumed that these trends and policies would continue in the future. On a trend basis it was assumed that there would be a net inflow ... of around 14,000 per annum over the period 1987-2006. There may, nevertheless, be variations in particular years in the size and the composition of the migration flows. For populat-ion projection purposes, it was further assumed that the sex-age distribution of the net