# **Table 6. Output Table of the Alternative Scenario**

## **Alternative Scenario 3: Country-Specific Scenario**

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

||**Actual**|||**Projection**|**s**||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||2005|2006|2007|2008|2009|2010|2011||
|||||||||**Debt-stabilizing**|
|**I. Baseline M**|**edium-Term Pro**|**jections**||||||**primary**|
|||||||||**deficit**|
|Public sector debt 1/<br>36.1|61.2|**96**|**105**|**108**|**113**|**121**|**130**||
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (net)<br>23.8|17.1|24.5|18.1|14.8|13.6|13.0|12.5||
|o/w foreign-currency denominated (gross)<br>30.8|22.7|24.5|18.1|14.8|13.6|13.0|12.5||
|o/w domestic debt (net) 3/<br>12.3|44.1|71.6|87.3|93.0|99.9|108.3|117.9||
|Change in public sector debt|-2.0|34.9|9.4|2.4|5.6|7.8|9.1|0.0|
|Identified debt-creating flows (4+7+12)|-3.8|34.9|9.4|2.4|5.6|7.8|9.1|0.0|
|Primary deficit|-6.5|-3.0|-3.0|-3.0|-3.0|-3.0|-3.0|**-13.2**|
|<br>Revenue and grants<br>23.9|67.2|55.8|45.2|39.8|38.1|38.3|39.1||
|Primary (noninterest) expenditure<br>21.0|60.7|52.8|42.2|36.8|35.1|35.3|36.1||
|Seignorage|-0.6|-2.8|-1.8|-1.1|-0.7|-0.5|-0.5|-0.5|
|Automatic debt dynamics 2/|3.4|25.7|14.1|6.5|9.3|11.3|12.6|13.7|
|Contribution from interest rate/growth differential|2.4|19.5|10.2|9.2|10.4|11.6|12.7|13.8|
|Of which contribution from real interest rate|5.3|15.6|13.0|12.3|13.5|14.9|16.3|17.6|
|Contribution from domestic real interest rate 4/|4.1|13.4|10.7|10.6|12.3|13.9|15.2|16.6|
|Contribution from real interest rate on foreign debt 5/|1.6|2.4|2.3|1.7|1.2|1.1|1.0|1.0|
|Contribution from real interest rate on net foreign assets 6/|-0.4|-0.2|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Of which contribution from real GDP growth|-2.9|3.9|-2.8|-3.1|-3.1|-3.3|-3.5|-3.8|
|<br>Contribution from real exchange rate depreciation 7/|0.9|6.1|3.9|-2.7|-1.0|-0.3|-0.1|-0.1|
|<br>Denominator = 1+g+π∗+gπ∗|1.1|1.0|1.1|1.1|1.1|1.1|1.1|1.1|
|Other identified debt-creating flows|0.0|15.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Privatization receipts (negative)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Recognition of implicit or contingent liabilities|0.0|15.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Other (specify, e.g. bank recapitalization)|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|<br>Residual, including asset changes (2-3)|1.8|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Public debt in percent of revenues 1/<br>151.2|91.1|172.3|233.1|271.1|297.5|316.5|333.8||
|Primary deficit that stabilizes the debt-to-GDP ratio|-4.5|-37.9|-12.4|-5.4|-8.6|-10.8|-12.1|-13.2|
|Required deficit reduction|-2.0|34.9|9.4|2.4|5.6|7.8|9.1|10.2|
|**Gross financing**5/|36.9|43.1|50.9|53.1|55.2|57.6|59.3||
|in billions of U.S. dollars|128.9|186.1|288.5|368.3|431.9|485.1|531.9||
|||||||||For debt|
|**Key macroeconomic and fiscal assumptions**||||||||stabilization|
|Real GDP growth (in percent)|4.8|-6.0|3.0|3.0|3.0|3.0|3.0|3.0|
|Average nominal interest rate on public debt (percent) 6/|15.9|11.0|13.2|13.1|13.1|12.9|12.8||
|Average nominal interest rate on public domestic debt (in percent) 11/|16.8|80.0|50.0|35.0|25.0|20.0|18.5|18.5|
|<br>Average interest rate on foreign-currrency denominated debt|10.3|12.4|12.5|12.5|10.9|10.9|10.9|10.9|
|<br>Average nominal interest rate on NFA (in percent) 12/||5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|5.0|
|<br>Average real interest rate (nominal rate minus change in CPI, percent)|9.1|33.8|18.1|9.2|11.8|13.1|13.6||
|<br>Average real domestic interest rate (nominal rate minus change in CPI, percent)|9.4|40.0|20.0|15.0|15.0|15.0|15.0||
|<br>Change in the real exchange rate (Local currency per US dollar) 13/||30.0|15.0|-14.2|-6.6|-2.2|-1.0|-1.0|
|<br>Nominal depreciation of local currency (LC per dollar)|9.3|77.8|1.4|0.5|0.2|0.2|0.0||
|<br>Exchange rate (US dollar per LC)<br>0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0||
|Nominal appreciation of local currency (increase in US dollar value of local currency)|-8.5|-43.7|-1.4|-0.5|-0.2|-0.2|0.0||
|Inflation rate (in percent)|6.8|40.0|30.0|20.0|10.0|5.0|3.5|3.5|
|US Inflation rate (in percent)|2.7|2.4|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|2.5|
|Growth of real primary spending (deflated by GDP deflator, in percent)|5.9|-18.3|-17.6|-10.3|-1.5|3.5|5.2||
|<br>Base Money (percent of GDP)|7.79|8.7|8.3|7.8|7.6|7.5|7.5||

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