While initial timelines across the eight countries forecast production to commence an average 6.4 years after discovery, even if the most recent timelines are met, the average would actually be 11 years. The differences are more marked for oil (forecast of 4.8 years versus actual/latest of 10.2 years) than for gas (forecast of 8.1 years versus actual/latest of 11.9 years).

# _Timely production_

After oil was discovered in Mauritania’s Chinguetti field by Woodside Petroleum in 2001, the country successfully reached first oil in 2006 as forecast. Ghana and Niger also reached first oil on schedule, and extremely quickly by international standards. Ghana took around three years to get from the first discovery in its large Jubilee field in 2007 to first oil in 2010, meeting Tullow’s ambitious timeline and, according to the company, setting a “new global benchmark” for the development of major deepwater projects (Tullow, 2011, p. 52). In Niger, development of the Agadem oil field by CNPC, and construction of a refinery and pipeline to connect the two by CNODC, were also completed in three years. First oil was reached in 2011 rather than in 2012 as expected. All three projects targeted oil rather than gas, and Mauritania’s Chinguetti and Ghana’s Jubilee fields were offshore and developed from floating facilities (known as floating production storage and offloading or FPSO facilities), though Niger’s Agadem was onshore. All three benefitted from high/increasing commodity prices through most of their development timeline.<sup>15</sup>

# _Delayed projects_

Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda have taken much longer to reach production than expected. Each of these countries should have been producing by the end of 2020 according to early forecasts, and some should have already been producing for several years by now. The reality has been very different.

In Tanzania, the first publicized timeline for the development of the planned LNG project comprising blocks 1, 2 and 4 was from the IMF in 2012, which suggested that first gas by 2020 was achievable (IMF, 2012b). This prediction was subsequently echoed in company and government statements. However, delays in passing key legislation and identification of a site for the planned LNG plant and a fall in gas prices caused this timetable to slip. Sweeping legislative reforms in 2017 and a government review of existing production sharing agreements (PSAs) (including for blocks 1, 2 and 4) in 2019 have complicated negotiations and pushed back the timeline further.<sup>16</sup> In early 2019, the government stated that it hoped to agree to key terms by September 2019, reach an FID in 2022 and first gas in 2028 (Ng’wanakilala and Dausen, 2019). However, with key terms still yet to be agreed and negotiations currently suspended, further slippages are almost certain (Materu, 2019b).

Uganda’s journey to first oil has been similarly challenging. The first operator, Tullow, initially targeted first oil in 2009, and this timeline was reflected in IMF reports. However, it was soon pushed back to 2010 and then repeatedly delayed thereafter. The IMF, for example, has changed its first oil estimate eight times since its initial projection (see Figure 3). The most recent estimate is first oil in 2023 to 2024 (IMF, 2019b, p. 8), but this is likely to also prove over-optimistic with an FID unlikely before 2021 (Perkins, 2020).

Our analysis of oil and gas asset data between 1960 and 2018 suggests that, on average across all projects worldwide, it took 7.5 years to get from discovery to production. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the 15 There was significant price volatility from 2007 to 2009, but prices on average were very high by historical standards.

16 The structure of the regulatory framework for the LNG project will depend on whether the blocks and the LNG plant are treated as separate entities. If, as expected, they are, PSAs will govern the blocks and a host government agreement will govern the LNG plant.

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