explaining demand for redistribution. In concrete, expectations of upward mobility are a key element in a few models (Piketty, 1995; Bénabou and Ok, 2001). By adding the subjective views people hold of their future position in the income distribution, these models allow to incorporate the fact that people base their voting on redistribution on their expected permanent income, not just on the current level of income. Expectations of social mobility, or “Prospects of Upward Mobility (POUM)” as Benabou and Ok (2001) call them, are therefore an important determinant of their demand for redistribution. In contrast with the basic Meltzer Richard model, the POUM hypothesis has found quite a bit of empirical support (citations here Cojocaru, 2014, Checchi Filippin 2004, Rainer Siedler 2008). These papers use subjective expectations, as reported by opinion surveys, rather than using the objective mobility in each country.<sup>9</sup> In this paper we use subjective perceptions of inequality, and by explicitly modeling the mechanism through which people form these perceptions, we go one step further and try to combine the relevance of perceptions for demand for redistribution with the heterogeneous views of inequality at the level of the individuals.<sup>10</sup>

# **2.2 Determinants of demand for redistribution**

Political scientists have shown that public opinion has a major influence on many public policy decisions<sup>11</sup> and, in particular, public views of the economic situation tend to have a ‘pivotal rote’ in determining the outcome of elections.<sup>12</sup> Addressing the issue of the _formation_ of public opinion is thus a natural research focus for political scientists. A key contribution in this area is due to Zaller’s 1992 monograph “The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion”. Challenging what at the time was the consensus, Zaller rejected the idea that survey responses are manifestation of fixed attitudes, and that deviations are simply due to measurement errors. He proposed the RAS model of the response to opinion survey, theorizing that opinion statements result from a process in which people _receive_ new information, decide whether to _accept_ it and then _sample_ from their stock of considerations at the moment of answering questions. In Zaller’s original approach, which was influenced by advances of cognitive psychology, the formation of opinions is a

> 9 An interesting variation of these empirical studies is found in Alesina and La Ferrara (2005) who, in addition to _subjective_ expectations of upward and downward mobility, consider also the role of general mobility as _objectively_ present in the society (p.899).

> 10 To the best of our knowledge Engelhardt & Wagener (2014) is the only study that examines the determinants of perceived inequality and concludes that it correlates with government social expenditures. 11 Two often cited studies are Page and Shapiro (1983) and Monroe (1979). See also Slemrod (2006), Blendon et al (1997) and many of the additional studies referred in these papers.

> 12 Blendon et al (1997) document differences between objective (or reported by experts) and perceived views about: (a) the current or past economic performance, in terms of income growth or adequate job creation; and (b) explanations of why the economy is not doing better (the role of trade, technology, or government policies).

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