(listed in Web Appendix Table 2). We then consider 97 out of the 116 countries for the cross-sectional analysis from 1960-2010. We use WUP (2011) and WB (2013) to estimate the average annual growth rate (%) of the largest city of each country between 1960 and 2010.

# **Urban and Rural Demographic Transitions in Industrial Europe:**

For each of the 7 countries of Industrial Europe, we use various historical sources to obtain the national, urban and rural crude rates of birth, crude rates of death and crude rates of natural increase (per 1,000 people) for several decades during the 1800-1910 period (sources listed in Panel A, Web Appendix Table 3). For England, our main country of analysis, we have data from 1700 to 1950. For the other countries, demographic data exists for shorter periods, as this type of data was not systematically collected by the official authorities before the 19th century.

# **Urban and Rural Demographic Transitions in Today’s Developing World:**

For each of the 35 countries of today’s developing world, we use reports from the _Population and Housing Censuses_ , _CICRED Monographs_ , _Fertility Surveys_ , and _Demographic and Health Surveys_ (DHS) as well as the _Statistical Yearbooks_ of the United Nations, to obtain the national, urban and rural crude rates of birth, crude rates of death and crude rates of natural increase (per 1,000 people) for each decade during the 1960-2010 period (sources listed in Panel B, Web Appendix Table 3).<sup>1</sup> We could not find consistent historical demographic data for other countries. Indeed, demographic data does not always exist for countries as far back as the 1960s. For 62 other countries of today’s developing world, we use reports from the _Population and Housing Censuses_ and _Demographic and Health Surveys_ to obtain an estimate of the urban and rural crude rates of birth and death for the closest year to 2000, in the 1990-2010 interval. For the 35 + 62 = 97 countries, we also used the same sources to retrieve the urban total fertility rate (TFR) for the closest year to 2000, in the 1990-2010 interval. For 89 countries, we used the same sources to obtain the urban share of women in reproductive age (1549 year-old, as a % of the total population) for the closest year to 2000, in the 1990-2010 interval. Data on the urban child mortality rates (0-5 years) for the closest year to 2000, in the 1990-2010 interval, was obtained from the _Demographic and Health Surveys_ (DHS). Lastly, for 94 countries, we also use the sources mentioned above to obtain the birth rate of the largest city for the closest year to 2000, in the 1990-2010 interval. Data on the crude death rate of the largest city does not exist, as it is not systematically collected or reported by the official authorities of these countries.

# **<u>Data for the Instrumental Variables:</u>**

Data on the population shares (%) of “Catholicism”, “Protestantism”, “Other Christian Religions”, “Islam”, “Hinduism”, “Buddhism”, “Other Eastern Religions”, and “Other Religions” for the 1960s come from Barro and McCleary (2003). They mostly rely on survey data from the 1960s but label this round of data as “1970”. Data on the “Family Planing Effort” (FPE) index (from 0 to 100) for the 1960s comes from Ross and Mauldin (1996). They mostly rely on observations from the late 1960s, but label this round of data “1972” in their analysis. The two data sets allow us to observe the initial cultural and policy conditions in our 35 developing countries.

> 1While some of these sources could easily be found on the internet (in PDF), we found most of them at the Library of Congress in Washington D.C. and the libraries of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in London and the Centre Population et Développement (CEPED) in Paris.

A. 5