distribution of caloric consumption across food groups suggests that the average Pakistani diet may not be sufficiently diverse (Shabnam et al. 2016).

_Cost of food_ : Based on 2010–11 national HIES data, Malik, Nazli, and Whitney (2015) find that, as expected, nonpoor households spend more per calorie than poor households, and that urban households spend more per calorie than rural households. However, the study also finds that the cost of calories from wheat is higher for poor than nonpoor households, in both rural and urban areas. Notwithstanding, World Bank (2016a) finds that the cost per calorie for the poorest households is lowest for cereals, followed, in rising order, by sugars, oils, and pulses.

Based on 2013–14 national HIES data, GOP and World Food Programme [WFP] (2016) find that food expenditures for 68% of households fall below the minimum cost of a staple-adjusted, locally available nutritious diet (that is, a diet that meets the recommended intake of calories, protein, fat, and micronutrients, and contains a daily serving of the main staple, wheat). Among the four provinces, the share of such households varies from a high of 83% in Balochistan to a low of 66% in Punjab (the share for Islamabad Capital Territory is 32%).

World Bank (2016a) finds that, from 2000–01 to 2013–14, the cost of food rose sharply, particularly in the latter half of that period. Over the full period, food prices rose by 270%, compared to a rise of 180% in nonfood prices.

_Food prices and food consumption_ : Malik, Nazli, and Whitney (2015) find that household demand for most foods is price-inelastic, irrespective of the location (urban or rural) or the economic status of the household (poor or nonpoor). Studies have also taken advantage of large, rapid increases in food prices starting in the late-2000s in Pakistan to examine how households respond to food price changes.<sup>13</sup> Using the panel subsample of the 2007–08 and 2010 PSLM surveys, Friedman, Hong, and Hou (2011) find that, for urban households, the increase in wheat prices has a negative effect on the consumption of grains and animal products and a positive effect on the consumption of fruits and vegetables; whereas, for rural households with access to land, the increase in wheat price has a positive effect on the consumption of grains, fruits, and vegetables, but not of animal products. The documented effects for rural farm households, along with further investigation in the study, indicate that these households took advantage of the wheat price increase to raise their income. Using national HIES data from 2005–06 and 2010–11, Shabnam et al. (2016) find that caloric consumption by poorer households is more sensitive to food price increases than for richer households, indicating that the price increases have a larger negative effect on caloric consumption for the former.

_Trend in food consumption_ : Food balance sheet statistics compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization indicate that Pakistan’s supply of daily calories per capita has fluctuated between 2,200 and 2,400 calories since the 1970s. However, caloric consumption appears to have declined over the recent past. Based on national HIES data, World Bank (2016a) finds that average daily household caloric consumption per adult equivalent declined by 9% between 2001–02 and 2013– 14 (from 2,228 to 2,033 calories), even though average real household consumption expenditure

> 13 Between 2006/07 and 2008/09, the price of wheat flour increased by 162%, rice by 207%, milk by 101%, vegetable cooking oil by 147%, and onions by 140% (Government of Pakistan 2014).

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