rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
**21**

influential practice which did make a difference was a system's practice of permitting administrative costs to be charged to investment incol **ie** (ADINVST), rather than being covered from state or local budgets directly. This reduced the 5-year average return figure at statistically significant levels, though neither the 1990 return nor the variability measure were powerfully affected. The PENDAT survey does not indicate whether the systems reported net or gross investment returns, but tne negative significant effect of ADINVST suggests that the figures given were net of expenses..

This surmise is strengthened by the resultq of the next three management practice variables reported in Table 7. Many pension systems managed at least some of their pension investments in-house, but this p.actice apparently had no substantive effect on any of the investment yield outcomes. Some state and local systems used outside money managers and financial counsellors, either in concert with internal management, or exclusively. In al.' cases, the results indicated that plans investing in-house, or using external money managers fared about the same, even if the external managers were drawn from the "Top 10" group identified by Lakonishok et al. (1992). This is not surprising if the investment yield figures supplied in the PENDAT survey were net returns, since higher gross yields produced by active money managers tend to be equalized after commissions (Ippolito 1989).

Only a few of the rules regarding investment practices proved statistically significant in Table 7. In no case was the prudent man requirement statistically linked to returns or investment variability, though it may be that all pension Boards follow some Olivia S. Mitchell - Public Pension Governance and Performance
# L. INTRODUCTION AND CONCLUSIONS

For developing countries budget constraints<sup>help set the agenda on mitigating</sup> environmental damage, one of the indelible marks<sup>of our era. Political considerations often dictate</sup> the measures taken. There are no frm analytical formulae to help even<sup>environment-conscious</sup> policy makers to rank needs and remedies.

A developing country like Mexico-the focus<sup>if this paper-cannot afford an in-depth</sup> study of every environmental issue. Policy makers need<sup>to be provided with rough, "back-of-the-</sup> envelope" estimates of the economic costs of various environmental<sup>problems. This will allow them</sup> to tank the issues-and to act.

In this paper, the outcome of an exercise in LA2AG,<sup>I applied existing metiod to</sup> estimate the costs stemming from different environmental<sup>problems in Mexico. Although the</sup> examples are Mexican, the method can be relevant<sup>in other developing countries as well. The paper</sup> shows how creative use of U.S. and other data can<sup>help provide simple estimates of likely costs of</sup> soil erosion, air pollution, mining of underground waters,<sup>and estimates of the health effects of water</sup> and solid waste pollution, lack of sanitatic n, and ingestion of feod<sup>contaminated by polluted irrigation.</sup> The assumptions in all calculations are conservative.

Table 1 summarizes the major problems analyzed,<sup>their potential effects, the costs</sup> involved, and a summary of the equations and<sup>calculations. Chapter II describes the method and its</sup> limitations. Chapter Im gives details on the cost estimates.<sup>(Some environmental damage issues, such</sup> as loss of biodiversity, were too complex to permit quantification).

1
# Biblioaraphy

Balassa, Bela. 1985. "Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries after the 1973 Oil Shock". Journal of Development Economics 18:23-35. The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD and The World Bank, Washington, D.C., Balassa, Bela and Associates. 1971. The Structure of Protection in Developing Countries. The Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Maryland and London Barro, R.J. 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cr3ss Section of Countries." Ouarterlv Journal of Economics, (May) 106.

Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1978. Foreian Trade Regimes and Economic DeveloRment: Anatomy and Consecruences of Exchange Control Regimes. Ballinger Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Bhalla, Surgit, and Lawrence J. Lau. 1991. "Openness, Technological Progress, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries." Background paper for World Development Report 1991.

De Long, J. Bradford and Lawrence H. Summers. 1990. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth." Harvard University and NBER (October).

Dollar, David. "Outward-oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly, Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-85." Forthcoming, 1991, in Economic DeveloRment and Cultural Change.

Edwards, Sebastian. 1989. "Openness, Outward Orientation, Trade Liberalization and Economic Performance in Developing Countries," World Bank PPR Working Paper # 191.

Esfahani, Hadi S. 1989.. "Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialized Countries." Revised (September). Department of Economics, University of Illinois at UrbanaChampaign, Urbana, Illinois.

Geroski, Paul A. 1989. "Entry, Innovation and Productivity Growth." The Review of Economics and Statistics. 572-578. London Business School.

Grossman, Gene M. and Elhanen Helpman. Forthcoming, 1991. Innovation and Growth: Technological ComPetition in the Global Economy. MIT Press, Boston, Massachusetts.

23
for 38 agricultural commodities. Their approach builds on the Deaton formulation through the additional inclusion of demand substitution, i.e., the second term in equation (2), while the other terms in the CV expression are ignored. They use country-level actual changes in domestic prices wherever available in their simulations. Except for Vietnam, they find an increase in poverty in all countries in their sample. Overall, they estimate a net increase in poverty of 44 million people.

Other researchers have attempted a more complete welfare estimation by including the higher order effects of equation (2). Minot & Dewina (2015) use household survey data from Ghana to examine the sensitivity to various assumptions. Specifically, they consider the following four scenarios: (i) no demand or supply response and identical price rise for consumer and produce prices (the Deaton first-order approximation); (ii) similar to (i) but with producer prices rising twice as much as consumer prices; (iii) assuming household supply and demand response (with demand and supply elasticity of 0.3 assumed) and identical consumer and producer price rise; (iv) combination of (ii) and (iii). In the base scenario, they find that households are negatively affected in the short-term. When testing the sensitivity of their results to different assumptions the authors find that the results do not change significantly when supply and demand responses are included (i.e., scenario (iii)). This suggests that short-term estimates resulting from the first-order approximations are likely to be reasonably close to the impact in the medium and long term, particularly for price changes in staple commodities, which are often relatively inelastic in supply and demand. However, the change in results is more substantial in scenarios (ii) and (iv) when the assumption of identical price rises for producer and consumers is dropped. They find that the standard assumption predicts a 1 percent increase in poverty, while the alternative assumption in scenario (ii) predicts a 2 percent reduction in poverty. A similar finding is presented in Dawe & Maltsoglou (2009) who observe, “assuming equal percentage changes for both farm and consumer prices leads to a bias towards finding negative impacts of higher food prices”.

A number of other studies have focused on including the supply and demand responses into the CV calculations, but not many studies have accounted for the assumptions about marketing margins. For instance, Attanasio et al. (2013) estimate a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) for Mexico and use these estimates in analyzing the welfare effects of food price rises. Similar work has been done for Mali and Cameroon (Kane et al., 2015; Me-Nsope & Staatz, 2016).

9
As illustrated in Figure 2b, a handful of countries dominate the market for PV. However, a number of countries are experiencing a significant market growth. Notably, Czech Republic had installed nearly 2 GW of solar PV by December 2010 (REN21, 2011), up from almost zero in 2008. India had a cumulative installed PV capacity of 102 MW (EPIA, 2011) and China had a cumulative capacity of 893 MW at the end of 2010.

Two types of PV systems exist in the markets: grid connected or centralized systems and off-grid or decentralized systems. The recent trend is strong growth in centralized PV development with installations that are over 200 kW, operating as centralized power plants. The leading markets for these applications include Germany, Italy, Spain and the United States. After exhibiting poor growth for a number of years, annual installations in the Spanish market have grown from about 4.8 MW in 2000 to approximately 950 MW at the end of 2007 (PVRES 2007) before dropping to 17 MW in 2009 and bouncing back to around 370 MW in 2010 (EPIA, 2011). The off-grid applications (e.g., solar home systems) kicked off an earlier wave of PV commercialization in the 1970s, but in recent years, this market has been overtaken by gridconnected systems. While grid-connected systems dominate in the OECD countries, developing country markets, led by India and China, presently favor off-grid systems. This trend could be a reflection of their large rural populations, with developing countries adopting an approach to solar PV that emphasizes PV to fulfill basic demands for electricity that are unmet by the conventional grid.<sup>5</sup>

# **2.2.2 Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)**

The CSP market first emerged in the early 1980s but lost pace in the absence of government support in the United States. However, a recent strong revival of this market is evident with 14.5 GW in various stages of development across 20 countries and 740 MW of

> 5 By the early 1990s, off-grid applications accounted for about 20% of the market (based on power volume), while grid-connected systems accounted for about 11%.  The rest of the market was comprised of remote stand-alone applications such as water pumping, communications, leisure, consumer products and so forth (Trukenburg, 2000). Between 1995 and 1998, for the first time, the market share of grid-connected systems eclipsed off-grid systems, when it grew to 23% of the PV installations (Trukenburg, 2000).  Since that time, grid-connected PV capacity has dominated the market through sustained and dramatic growth rates.  In both 2006 and 2007, this market attained 50% annual increases in cumulative installed capacity; in 2008 the growth further increased to 70% (REN21, 2009).

8
interest for a country where one out of every ten prime age males is currently working overseas and remittances reached 17 percent of GDP in 2004 (World Bank 2005).

Work migration in Nepal, while predominantly a male phenomenon, takes place within a social framework. It affects families, households and communities, brings changes in the gender division of labor and increases the women’s workload. Male work migrants are gone for months and sometimes for years at a time, leaving women to assume the day-to-day productive responsibilities at home. When their husbands migrate, wives not only continue to rear the children and take care of the usual household chores, but often also fill in for the absent husbands in working on the family plots or enterprises. Female heads of agricultural households have a particularly hard time when male labor is not available for such tasks as plowing which is taboo for women in certain areas of Nepal (Nandini 1999).

Another effect of male worker migration is that the well-being of sending households becomes increasingly dependent on women raising their status and strengthening their position in household decision-making. Women can find themselves playing key roles as entrepreneurs in investing or divesting remittance incomes or running bazaar economies based on the sale of remittances in kind (Brown and Connell 1993). At the same time, social and traditional family norms, as well as the structure of the Nepali labor market which has limited employment opportunities for women, reinforce husbands’ objections to wives working away from home. With their husbands absent, wives find it easier to work at home in order to maintain respectability in the eyes of neighbors and relatives.

A husband’s migration can have a mixed effect on gender relations between his wife and other members of the sending household. If a man leaves his wife in an extended household and sends remittances to his parents, the mother and father-in-law dominate family affairs. Several sociological studies have shown (e.g., Sharma 1986) that the role of the daughter-in-law in Nepal requires subservient behavior and the performance of arduous tasks. The absence of a husband may represent the loss of a possible ally for his wife, someone to speak on her behalf should her in-laws mistreat her or become too demanding. On the other hand, depending on circumstances and on 3
- 5 -

Yet evaluation of outcomes has been weakly supported. Only 08% of the project components studied by Verspoor supported the development of testing systems. In a review of 76 World Bank investments in vocational education and training, Middleton and Demsky (1988) found the same low level of attention to examination and certification processes, and to assessment of the employment outcomes of training. In general, this lack of attention to assessing educational and economic outcomes is a clear indicator of low levels of investment in the development of permanent evaluation capacity, by Borrowers and the Bank alike.

# Monitoring and Evaluation in Projects: Design and Achievements

To gain more specific insight into the design of Bank support for monitoring and evaluation (both for projects and for broader system capacity), a sample of ongoing and completed projects was studied. Current design practice was identified through a review of the 16 project appraisal reports approved in FY85-86. The design and effectiveness of past investments were assessed through an analysis of the appraisal reports and project evaluations for the 17 education sector projects completed in the same period.<sup>2</sup> / The review of investment design in completed and ongoing projects indicates increasing attention to the design of project monitoring systems at the appraisal stage. Evaluation of outcomes, however, has received very little attention. Tihe data suggest that efforts to build Borrower capacity for system-wide M&E may be declining.

The record of success in completed projects has been very weak for project monitoring and evaluation as well as for the development of system capacity. Reasons include inappropriate designs, and lack of the policy and incentive support that might overcome Borrower reluctance to support monitoring and evaluation efforts.

# Recent and Past Practice in M&E Design

This component of the analysis focused on the design of support both for project monitoring and evaluation and for the development of system capacity in both ongoing and completed projects. The basic question was whether or not provision was made for project monitoring and evaluation, development of M&E capacity, or both. Additional questions regarding investment design were: a) Were indicators specified?

- b) Was responsibility for M&E clearly assigned?

- c) Were procedures for administration of M&E specified?

- d) Were decision points for use of M&E results specified?

- e) Were Rolicy sunport and/or incentives provided?

2 A list o_. the projects reviewed may be found in Annex I.
Uganda’s educational system was reduced when school staff and parents were informed of the amount of central grant that their school was supposed to receive (Svensson, 2005, pp. 35-36). A more qualitative evaluation of the Bangalore report cards credited them with stimulating improvements, although the gains were uneven (improving in some agencies, declining in others) and slower than hoped for (Paul, 2002).

One limitation of these schemes is their need for accurate, credible and understandable the information. High quality information has the potential to shift the burden of proof about the possibility of improving performance from the taxpayers and customers to the firm. But gaining such information is often difficult. Benchmarking, for example, requires the ability to identify reasonably comparable enterprises or to adjust the data for important differences in the firms or their environments. Similarly, household surveys must be based on careful sampling if they are to be representative and consistent over time. Moreover, the performance measures must not only represent the firm’s performance fairly but be simple and intuitive enough for the public to understand. The effort to benchmark the Indian electricity companies is unlikely to have much impact, for example, because the measures developed are so complex that they appear arbitrary and unintelligible.

The second and arguably more serious problem is that providing information alone does little to overcome the obstacles to collective action faced by taxpayers and customers. Information reduces the cost of influence, but it does not solve the problem of free-riding. The problems of collective action may be manageable if a community is small enough and the service is important enough that informal social pressures are sufficient to offset the incentives to free ride. But in larger communities effective collective action is likely to depend on the presence of strong institutions of civil society—churches, residents’ associations, professional associations, unions and other civic and non-governmental organizations—that are already well organized and whose membership cares about the services involved. Even in Bangalore, where one might think conditions were relatively favorable, the limited capacity and interest of local civil society made it difficult to orchestrate a groundswell of public opinion and to translate that groundswell into effective and sustained pressure on public agencies.

35
AAA allocation, the pattern of regional change in AAA is similar to the pattern for lending (with the exception of Africa): Two regions have increases in AAA (East Asia / Pacific, South Asia) and four regions have decreases (Africa, Europe / Central Asia, Latin America / Caribbean and Middle East / North Africa). Furthermore, the magnitudes of overall regional changes are almost identical in Tables 7.4 and 7.5 (again, Africa excepted) However, changing thematic shares from the AAA allocation to the lending allocation has a large impact on thematic results. Moving to the lending allocation (Table 7.5) entails very large increases for three sectors (climate (118%), pollution (198%), land (107%) and large decreases for two (biodiversity (-73%), policies and institutions (-44%)). Overall, combining these changes with regional shifts generates much larger regional % changes within sectors in Table 7.5 than in Table 7.4. In some cases, change patterns are replicated in the two tables (e.g., large % increases in climate, pollution and land for EAP; decreases for all themes except water in ECA). However, other patterns are reversed, particularly for biodiversity, which gets a much larger allocation in Table 7.4 (10% of total AAA) than in Table 7.5 (3% of total lending).

Table 7.4: % Differences Between Actual and Optimal AAA (AAA Thematic Shares Held Constant)

|**Region **|**Climate**|**Pollution **|**Land**|**Biodiversity**|**Water **|**Policies**|**Other **|**Total**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**AFR**|-35|20|-62|-75|-81|146|-56|-52|
|**EAP**|171|271|411|222|50|-8|88|61|
|**ECA**|-63|-83|-65|-87|2|-66|-71|-68|
|**LCR**|473|64|-86|90|13|25|-26|-7|
|**MNA**|-5|-59|279|-12|-69|19|-49|-39|
|**SAR**|-62|9|2,273|100|366|59|1,313|144|
|Total|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|

21
Policy Research Working Paper 6909

# **Abstract**

This paper studies the benefits, in terms of reliability and frequency of poverty statistics, of conducting a hybrid survey that collects non-consumption data from all surveyed households and consumption data from only a small subsample. Collecting detailed consumption or income data for the purpose of estimating poverty is costly and many low-income countries cannot afford to carry out such surveys on a regular basis. One option is to collect only non-consumption data and use consumption models developed from a previous round of household survey data to project poverty data. Although this approach is cost-effective because collection of nonconsumption data is much cheaper than collection of consumption data, it is vulnerable to a structural change between the current and previous household surveys and might produce poverty estimates that are not comparable with the previous ones. Instead, the hybrid approach creates consumption models from a subsample of the current survey and applies them to the entire survey to project consumption data for all households in the sample. This paper examines the hybrid approach with data from the Bangladesh Household Income Expenditure Surveys of 2000 and 2005. Improvements in accuracy are achieved even with subsamples of just 320 or 640 households. Budget simulations confirm that the additional cost of collecting consumption data for such small subsamples is minimal.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Equity Unit, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http:// econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at nyoshida@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
|lnLlnK|(0.031)<br>-0.008***|(0.038)|
|---|---|---|
||(0.001)||
|lnLlnM|-0.035***||
||(0.001)||
|lnKlnM|0.002**||
||(0.001)||
|lnL<sup>2</sup>|0.042***||
||(0.002)||
|lnM<sup>2</sup>|0.032***||
||(0.001)||
|lnK<sup>2</sup>|0.005***||
||(0.001)||
|Constant|3.998***|6.035***|
||(0.139)|(0.327)|
|Region (within country) Fixed Effects|Yes|Yes|
|Sector (2 digit) Fixed Effects|Yes|Yes|
|Number of observations|16,847|16,847|

Note: Survey weights have been applied to all regressions, using Stata’s svy prefix. Linearized Taylor standard errors that account for survey stratification are indicated in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 38
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