An inexperienced potential migrant expects to earn more than the experienced ones (those who have migrated before).<sup>21</sup> On average, an inexperienced potential migrant expects to earn $12,300 (net) from one migration episode, which is 26 percent more than the expectation of those who have migrated before (Figure 2). This pattern holds for most of the distributions of earnings expectations. Above the 20th percentile, each quantile of expected earnings of inexperienced potential migrants is higher than the corresponding quantile for those who have migrated before. For instance, the median inexperienced potential migrant expects to earn 23 percent more compared to the median migrant with prior migration experience, and the extent of the discrepancy remains about the same even at the 95th percentile.

It is quite striking that the inexperienced migrants expect to earn more than those with greater experience and arguably better training. However, the sample of experienced migrants in this study is non-random: it only includes those who want to migrate again. If good experience in migration makes them more likely to migrate again (as in Bryan, Chowdhury, and Mobarak, 2014), then the extent of misinformation presented here is likely to be a lower-bound estimate of the actual gap in information. If experienced migrants migrate for lower earnings abroad because their outside option of staying home is much worse, then the extent of misinformation here is likely to be an upper bound. In the current context, however, the former channel is more likely to be predominant.<sup>22</sup> The expectations of potential migrants are also much higher compared to the information provided to them. As Figure 2 shows, only 15 percent of the inexperienced potential migrants and 10 percent of those who have migrated before expect to earn less than the ‘high’ information provided of $5,700. Virtually no one expects to make less than the ‘low’ information provided of $3,000. However, the official figures may not reflect the actual earnings of migrants abroad as it does not include over-time pay, which is often a large share of a migrant worker’s compensation abroad.

In any case, these comparisons, though not perfect, are suggestive of large information gaps between the earnings expectations of the inexperienced potential migrants and the actual earnings they are likely to accrue once abroad. The actual extent of misinformation for inexperienced potential work migrants is likely to be bigger than 26 percent but smaller than that suggested by the comparison with the official figure.

# **Misinformation on expected mortality rate**

Contrary to the popular notion, potential migrants seem to overestimate their mortality rate abroad by a large factor. The average expected two-year mortality rate of inexperienced migrant is 28 per 1000, which is 68 percent higher than the expectations of those who have migrated before. Figure 3 shows that not just the mean, but every quantile of expected mortality rate of inexperienced potential migrants is higher than the corresponding quantile for those who have prior migration experience. For instance, the median expected mortality rate for the experienced is 10 per thousand, whereas it is 5.8 for those who have migrated before. However, these expectations are much higher compared to the actual mortality rate faced by the migrants once abroad. The deaths data from the Foreign Employment Promotion Board, the authoritative data source for mortality of Nepali workers abroad, and migration data from the Census and the Department of Foreign Employment show that the two-year mortality rate of Nepali workers in these destination countries is 1.3 per thousand.<sup>23</sup> Only 3 percent of inexperienced potential migrants and 11 percent of those who have migrated before expect the mortality rate to be lower than what it actually is. The overestimation at the mean is 21 times the actual figure for the inexperienced ones and 13 times for those who have migrated previously. The extent of overestimation is smaller at the median, but still 8 and 4 times the actual rate for both inexperienced and experienced (those who have

> 21Note the change in definition of experienced migrants for this part. For this part, experienced also includes those who are back on vacation and have an existing employment contract abroad.

> 22In the data collected by The World Bank (2011), returnees who earned more are more likely to express a desire to migrate again in the near future. Those who earned above the median during their foreign-migration experience are 18 percent more likely to express a desire to migrate again.

> 23To put this number in perspective, the mortality rate of average Nepali men with the same age distribution as the sample is 4.7 per 1000 for a two-year period. The mortality rate of average US men with the same age distribution as the sample is 2.85 per 1000 for a two-year period. Note that this information on relative risks was not provided to the potential migrants.

12