rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
# **1 Introduction**

The increase in gasoline prices stemming from the oil crisis overshadowed the United States presidential debate of October 1980. Ronald Reagan and then-President Jimmy Carter were going head to head in the election. Carter’s loss that year coincided with a peak in oil prices. Other modern US presidential incumbents – for example, Presidents Ford and George H.W. Bush - also lost their reelection bids following oil price spikes. This anecdotal evidence points to a broader question about the role of exogenous shocks in determining electoral outcomes.

Our paper is the first effort to systematically examine the effect of oil price shocks on the reelection probability of political incumbents in oil-importing countries. We use a novel dataset of 207 national elections in 50 mostly oil-importing democracies, which crucially also includes polling data in the run-up to elections. The polling data allow us to explore the effect of exogenous shocks not only on the election outcome, but also on voting intentions in the months leading up to the vote. Depending on the political system, the dataset includes elections of the chief executive in parliamentary or presidential systems. As large oil imports leave a country vulnerable to changes in _international_ crude oil prices, we rely on these prices as an exogenous source of _country-specific_ variation in terms of trade. Specifically, we create a measure of ’oil price shock’ by interacting the fluctuations in international oil prices (over which individual countries do not have explicit control) with the country-specific intensity of oil imports relative to GDP.

An oil price shock one year prior to an election is found to significantly reduce the likelihood of reelection for the incumbent party. Specifically, a 1% increase in our oil shock measure decreases the likelihood of incumbent re-election by nearly six percentage points. Furthermore, novel polling data confirm that these shocks operate by reducing the popularity of the sitting government. We show that both right-wing and left-wing incumbent parties are susceptible to crude oil price increases. We verify that the winning parties are more likely to belong to the opposite end of the political spectrum. In other words, following an oil price increase, a left-leaning incumbent party is more likely to be replaced by a right-leaning party and vice versa.

Since most countries in our sample are oil importers, an increase in crude oil prices would reduce the purchasing power of the population, consistent with Hamilton (2003) and Blanchard and Gali (2009). Consistent with this logic, we show that an increase in oil prices is found to reduce consumption growth. This is a potential 2
# FIGURE 4 EXANPLE OF A NULTI-CRITERIA METHOD FOR PRIORITY ASSIGNNENT

|Projects<br>Paraueters(t<br>Weights(2)<br>Project(3)<br>Points roject<br>Points roject<br>Points Project<br>Po|ints Project<br>Points|
|---|---|
|1. Amount<br>of Investment<br>||
|2. Maintenance<br>cost||
|3. Hoogeneity<br>of subsystem<br>(speed,<br>axle load)<br>||
|4. Minimum<br>speed<br>||
|S. Continuity||
|6. Present<br>traffic<br>density<br>7. Potential<br>freight<br>traffic||
|8. Potential<br>passenger<br>traffic||
|9. Benefits<br>for Isolated<br>areas<br>10. Relations<br>with neighbour<br>countries<br>11. Economic<br>activity<br>of country<br>12. Connection<br>toports||

(1) These parameters are selected by Central Planning Office (CPO) (2) The weights are set by a task force representing the CPO, users, and government (3) A value between 0 and 10 (O = worst, 10 = best) is assigned by proponets of projects (4) This column is equal to the weight Limes the points
_For labor or for divorce?_

# _4.2.Data and working samples_

The main source of data is repeated cross sections of nationally representative household and individual surveys for the period 1987-2017 from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Additionally, two cross-sectional data sets from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey by the High Commission for Planning (HCP) are used in the case of Morocco, where the DHS survey was not conducted (ie: for 2007 and 2014, the latest available waves of the survey).

**Table 1 - Data Source used per country**

|**Data Sources**|**Before reform**|**After reform**|
|---|---|---|
|Morocco|DHS 1992 and 2003|HCP Household survey 2007 and 2014|
|Egypt, Arab Rep.|DHS 1988, 1992, 1996|DHS 2003, 2005, 2008, 2014|
|Jordan|DHS 1990, 1997|DHS 2002, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2017|

_Source: Authors._ In analyzing women’s labor outcomes, we collect respondents’ answers to the question ‘are you currently working’. This question does not just measure labor force participation but, rather, also current occupation in a ‘paid labor’ position at the time of the survey. This means that we avoid the bias of having high unemployment rates in the estimations and limit our results to the effective employment outcome of ‘treated’ mothers for a given year.

In the case of Morocco, the DHS survey is completed by equally nationally representative data for the years 2007 and 2014 from the High Commission for Planning (HCP). To harmonize the DHS data and HCP Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, as in the latter there is no information on the number of births by women, we construct variables on children based on the age of the youngest member of the household. As with DHS data, only married, widowed or divorced women are taken into account.

Next, to study longitudinal effects of unilateral divorce reforms on women’s labor outcomes, we build a pseudo-panel based on repeated cross-sectional surveys for several periods before and after the date of the reform. We follow cohorts of women that share two timeinvariant characteristics, namely gender and year of birth, and make sure that each cohort is large enough to reduce measurement errors (see Verbeek and Nijman, 1992, 1993; Deaton and Paxson, 1994; Gardes et al., 2005). The sample is also restricted to women between the ages of 18 and 49, based on the demographic trends for prime ages for marriage, childbearing, and entrance to the labor market (Dhillon, and Yousef, 2011; Assaad et al., 18
Regarding their own assessment of road traffic risks, 17, 23 and 25 percent of the respondents rate their own risks as higher than the average driver, pedestrian and passenger, respectively. These figures seem reasonable, as do the percentage of respondents who claim to use seatbelt when driving or riding in the front seat of a car (60%) and to wear and properly strap a helmet when riding a two-wheeler (48%).

# **B. The WTP Responses**

We report descriptive statistics for the responses to the payment questions in table 3. This table displays the mean WTP, and the implied VSL, as well as the percentage of zero WTP responses, by the size of the risk reduction. The top panel of table 3 uses the full sample (1200 respondents times 3 scenarios, for a total of 3600 observations), the center panel only the responses to the payment questions provided by persons with at least a high-school diploma (580 persons and 1740 WTP observations), and the bottom panel only the WTP figures of persons with college degree or better (335 persons and 1005 WTP responses).

The WTP data exhibit clear patterns. First, they are generally increasing in the size of the risk reduction, with the exception of the WTP for the 8/100,000 risk reduction. Second, WTP does not increase in a strictly proportional fashion with the size of the risk reduction, at least for the lowest risk reductions considered in this study. Taken together, these two points imply that the VSL is not necessarily constant with respect to the size of the risk reduction. Third, at least a quarter of the respondents who were shown a specified risk reduction declined to pay anything at all for this risk reduction. The percentage of zero WTP responses is especially high for the pedestrian scenario (50% across all respondents), but also substantial for the city scenario (38% of all respondents) and for

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still includes ephemeral light, for example from fires and gas flaring, which we filter out. Following Beyer et al. (2018) and Beyer, Franco-Bedoya, and Galdo (2021), we identify different clusters by removing monthly outliers, averaging the brightness of cells over time, and clustering areas based on their light intensity.<sup>16</sup> We then define a background noise mask based on these clusters and only include lights outside the mask. In practice, this approach amounts to setting to zero cells that are distant from homogeneous bright cores.<sup>17</sup> The cleaned monthly data are aggregated to the district level and standardized by area.

# _ATM Transactions_

We obtained monthly data on ATM transactions at the Postal Index Number (PIN code) level from the National Payments Corporation of India, which is an umbrella organization set up by the Reserve Bank of India for operating retail electronic payment and settlement systems.

# _Credit Disbursements and Deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks_

We use district-level credit and deposits data from the Reserve Bank of India, which are available at quarterly frequency. The scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) provide these data as part of the Basic Statistical Returns.

# _Household Income and Expenditure_

We obtained data on household-level income, expenditure, and their subcategories from the Consumer Pyramids Household Surveys (CPHS) database maintained by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. This database is based on a large-scale survey that includes around 160,000 households covering all Indian states and union territories. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy visits each household once every four months and records

> range and onboard calibration correcting for saturation and blooming effects, the data are more comparable over time than previous nighttime light products.

> 16The advantage of using a background mask is shown clearly by Gibson and Boe-Gibson (2021b), who compare results using masked and unmasked VIIRS data, for both within and between estimators on a panel of about 3,000 U.S. counties.

> 17Our approach basically replicates the approach of Elvidge et al. (2017) for monthly data.

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# **Table 1: Search and inclusion criteria for studies**

|**Panel A:**Search||
|---|---|
|_Sources_|APA PcycNet, Academic Search Elite/EBSCO host, Econlit, ERIC, IDEAS,<br>ScienceDirect, Social Science, Research Network (SSRN), Google Scholar, ProQuest<br>Database, MEDLINE, NBER, WBG Working Papers, Strategic Impact Evaluation Fund<br>(SIEF) Portfolio, JSTOR, JOLIS library catalogue – International Monetary Fund,<br>World Bank and International Finance Corporation, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Web of<br>Science|
|_Search terms_|Preprimary OR preprimary OR Pre-school OR Kindergarten OR early childhood<br>development OR early childhood education OR early child development OR early<br>child education OR early learning OR early cognitive development OR early skills<br>development) AND (impact evaluation OR field experiment OR randomized OR<br>program evaluation OR meta-analysis OR systematic review OR synthesis review OR<br>qualitative study)>2005. Age 3 to 6;Countries: Global|
|**Panel B**: Inclusion crit|eria|
|_Program beneficiaries_|Children aged 3-6 years|
|_Interventions_|Programs that provide group-based childcare to children 3 to 6 years old in a center<br>setting with a formal or informal developmental and educational focus. This includes<br>formal preprimary schools, community schools, preschools, kindergarten, pre-<br>kindergarten, or daycare with an educational component. We also include<br>supplementary / co-interventions targeting parents, teachers, or other inputs (i.e.,<br>teacher training, targeting curricula, pedagogical approaches, infrastructure) whose<br>primary outcomes of interest are either child outcomes, or intermediary outcomes that<br>affect the quality of a pre-school program.|
|Measure|MAC<br>$/tCO2|Difusion speed<br>ktCO2|Potential in 2010<br>MtCO2|Potential growth<br>ktCO2|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Combustion optimization|-28.4|955|3.3|218|
|Heat recovery|-59.6|168|0.6|37|
|Steam recovery|-62.4|339|1.1|77|
|Furnace heat recovery|-12.8|1780|8.6|743|
|New processes|25.8|1200|4.5|265|
|Other Energy Efciency|-7.5|162|0.6|35|
|Thermal Solar|-34.8|228|0.8|50|
|Recycling|-23.6|679|2.3|155|
|Natural gas|0|397|1.3|90|
|Biomass|4.3|716|_·_|_·_|
|Reforestation|_·_|_·_|26.9|1002|
|Wind|64|138|1.2|0|
|Comb. Heat Power|-43.2|1517|5.7|241|
|Solar heat|83.9|18|_·_|_·_|
|Air conditioning|419.1|_·_|0|0|
|Residential Lightning|-91.9|_·_|0.1|0|
|Cooler|5.2|79|_·_|_·_|
|Motor|-5.8|13|_·_|_·_|
|Industrial Lightning|-36.2|3|_·_|_·_|
|Commercial lightning|-27.3|9|_·_|_·_|
|GTL|0.6|1021|_·_|_·_|
|New Refneries|16.4|352|_·_|_·_|
|Refneries Heat Integration|10.9|510|3.1|37|
|Refneries Fouling Mitigation|45.8|59|0.5|0|
|Refneries Advanced Control|79.1|59|0.5|0|
|Ethanol|1.8|1444|_·_|_·_|
|Rail and Waterways|23.3|494|_·_|_·_|
|Bullet train|376.3|45|0.9|0|
|Rapid transit bus|42|_·_|0|0|
|Metro|95.7|1007|_·_|_·_|
|Trafc optimization|0.2|232|_·_|_·_|
|Bike Lanes|2.6|120|_·_|_·_|
|Solid residues|2.1|_·_|40.4|732|
|Resid. wastewater|7.8|513|_·_|_·_|
|Indust. Wastewater|80.4|_·_|8|333|
|Restauration|_·_|5899|_·_|_·_|
|Livestock and Forest|0.7|_·_|229.4|6542|
|Tilage|-0.2|2578|17.6|185|

**Table 1:** Calibrated speed, cost and potential. A dot ( _·_ ) denotes lack of reliable data

8
unpublished official government statistics, and from the sales and crop procurement records of private Kenyan and foreign companies.:'

# H. DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH OF KENYAN HORTICULTURAL EXPORTS

9. Throughout the period of colonial rule in Kenya (1895 -1963), the production and trade of fresh and processed fruit and vegetables and of cut flowers remained greatly underdeveloped.'<sup>2</sup> Prior to World War II, this horticultural sub-sector was characterized by an absence of modern marketing facilities and nation-wide marketing organizations, an absence of official grades and standards for fresh produce, and a virtual absence of research and advisory services. While small export trades in potatoes and in passion fruit juice were developed by private firms during the inter-war years, the bulk of fruit and vegetable production in Kenya was of very low quality and Kenya remained a net importer of fresh and processed fruit and vegetable products.

10. In the period between the war and Kenyan independence, the colony did begin to develop the scientific, infrastructural, and institutional basis to pursue a larger and more diversified horticultural export trade and to penetrate the expanding European market for fresh and processed horticultural products. Still, at independence such trade only amounted to U.K. L 1.2 million, or about 3 % of the country's total agricultural exports. More than two-thirds of Kenya's

**"** Interviews were held with forty-four fruit and vegetable processors and fresh horticultural commodity exporters which together accounted for 97% of Kenya's horticultural exports during the mid-1980's. **Information** was obtained on the background, ownership, size, and commodity **mix** of the firms as well as their crop procurement and export sales arrangements. Surveys were also conducted of small, medium, and large-scale producers of major horticultural crops.

> 12 The historical development of the Kenyan horticultural export sub-sector is examined in **detail** in _Jaffee_ (1990).

5
The variables controlling for industrial sectors reveal some interesting differences between the union and nonunion sectors and the northern region and the rest of the country. In the nonunion sector there is no statistically significant difference in wage rates between industrial sectors, whereas in the union sector the transportation and service industry wage rates are significantly different from the omitted extraction sector. The greater inter-industry wage dispersion of the union sector compared to the nonunion sector observed in the northern region differs from the greater nonunion inter-industry wage dispersion commonly observed in empirical analysis, including the earlier full sample analysis in this study (see Table 3).

# Conclusions

The estimated union-nonunion wage gap, based on a subsample of 9,954 Mexican workers from a 1989 household survey, is about 10.4 percent. By international standards, specifically OECD countries, this is a low value and may suggest the relative weakness of organized labor in Mexico at the time of the survey. An exhaustive survey of the literature in the United States estimated an overall union-nonunion wage gap of around 14 percent over the period from 1967 to 1979. In none of the 12 years surveyed did the yearly average fall below 11 percent (Lewis 1986). A historical understanding of organized labor in Mexico supports the assertion that organized labor experienced difficult times in promoting the interests of its membership throughout most of the 1980s. However, the estimated 10.4 percent earnings advantage does indicate the existence of some bargaining strength, possibly 29
Until 2001, when hydrocarbon revenue was first incorporated into the budget, fiscal surplus was held in treasury investment accounts abroad. The realism and accuracy of oil revenue projections improved with the revised budget for 2002, submitted to parliament in May 2002. As of that date the previous practice of extra-budgetary expenditure using advances from oil companies, has been discontinued. Equatorial Guinea now has a rule that allows hydrocarbon revenue to be used only to finance public investment. At present, the government holds the bulk of its foreign reserves in the regional central bank, BEAC. However, Equatorial Guinea authorities maintain foreign exchange accounts abroad, only the President has access to these accounts<sup>33</sup> .

<!-- Start of picture text --> Net reserves in million of US$<br>2002-2006<br>1400<br>1200<br>1000<br>800 Net reserves<br>in million of<br>600 US$<br>400<br>200<br>0<br>Years<br>2002 2003 2004 2005 2006<br>Million of US$<br><!-- End of picture text --> Sources: Equatorial Guinea Authorities and IMF.

Authorities established a government-owned oil company as the National Oil Company of the Republic of Equatorial Guinea (GEPETROL), by Presidential Decree in February 2001, and the company became operational in 2002. The company was founded to improve the government’s overall receipts through the negotiation of contracts, commercialization of royalties that are received in kind, and participation in production activities. Despite the limited capacity of the firm, so far negotiation of some contracts has been conducted, and the sale of some royalties received in kind has been tendered to commercial traders. The Ministry of Mines and Energy regulates and supervises GEPETROL, and the enterprise is instructed to use only government accounts for the deposit of revenue from activities.

GEPETROL manages the state’s participation as a shareholder and other rights and obligation in Petroleum contracts; acts as agent for the sales of the state’s share of Hydrocarbons. It is equally the state’s agent for licensing open acreage within Equatorial Guinea. GEPETROL is mandated to participate in commercial ventures, either solely or as a partner with other national or foreign companies, within Equatorial Guinea or abroad. GEPETROL interacts with the Ministry of Mines, Industry and Energy on a regular basis to co-ordinate the affairs of the petroleum sector in Equatorial Guinea. The Ministry of Mines, Industry and Energy is the overall regulatory and administrative body

> 33 The Government was considering in late 2006 the possibility of managing its hydrocarbon revenue through two funds: the Fund for Future Generations and the Special Reserve Fund.

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_Conditional cash transfer programs._ A conditional cash transfer (CCT) is a cash payment to a family where the payment is conditional on some requirements being met. Many countries in Latin America operate such programs and the conditioning in almost all cases includes school attendance of the children in the family. Countries that adopted such programs include Brazil (in 1995), Mexico (1997), Honduras (1998), Nicaragua (2000), Costa Rica, Colombia (2001), Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and Jamaica. Rawlings and Rubio (2003) and Caldés _et al_ . (2004) provide overviews.

CCT programs are implemented because it is believed that current school attendance levels fall short of the optimum level. More attendance will then enhance efficiency. To some extent the CCT policy also expresses some concern for paternalism. In a sense the CCT program is comparable to compulsory schooling laws. But where compulsory schooling laws place a punishment on not attending school, CCT-programs place a reward on school attendance. It is akin to the difference between a stick and a carrot. The effect of this policy on equity depends on the exact target group of the policy. In most (all) cases, poor families are the target group and, therefore, the policy redistributes from average or rich families to poor families.

Many CCT programs have been assessed through impact evaluation studies. Nearly all studies show substantial positive effects of conditional cash transfers on school enrollment. The programs in Mexico and Nicaragua have been evaluated using randomized field experiments. In Mexico, enrollment rates at the secondary level increased from 67 percent to around 75 percent for girls, and from 73 percent to 78 percent for boys (Schultz 2004). In Nicaragua, the program 14
21 that nonearned income that is controlled by women has **a** larger effect on child health and nutrition than does nonearned income reported by men (Thomas, 1989). Empirical analysis of programs that encourage investments in women is needed to document what kind of changes occur in consumption patterns within families **as** the productivity of women is increased (Kennedy **and** Cogill, 1986; Blu.berg, 1988).

**The Composition** of **Families**

One way that people express their **demands for** consumption patterns is in the form of the families they create. An increase in the proportion of households headed by women has recently been observed in many countries. It is frequently linked to the change in the jobs that **women** take, at least in the industrially developed countries and urban Latin America (Youseff and Hefler, 1983; Kniesner et al., 1987). One explanation is the increasing productivity of women compared to men in the labor market. Cross sectional patterns imply that increasing the level of male and female productivity and wages at the same rate is sufficient to increase women's participation in the labor market, reduce the frequency and onset of marriage, and diminish lifetime fertility (Layard and Mincer, 1985). These developments ar! hypothesized to have reduced the net gains from specializatton of husbanl and wife in market and nonmarket production, respectively, within lifetim marriages (Becker, 1981). Though it **has** not been replicated in other U.S. sociul experiments, women who were given independent financial support for their children in the Seattle negative income tax experiment opted more often to separate from their husbands (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1983). In those societies where women **earn** nearly **as** much as men, there **are fewer** marriages and more female headed households are enumerated.<sup>9</sup>