disaggregated form. It also includes transaction accounts for domestic sales, imports and export in the same fashion as in the SAMs used by IFPRI Standard Model.<sup>**7**</sup> Our 2008 SAM includes six households. The groups were formed on the basis of an application of cluster analysis to Moldovan household budget survey data, with the aim of grouping the households into groups that, in terms of income sources, are as homogeneous as possible internally and as heterogeneous as possible between the groups. Consumption parameters for the six household groups were estimated from the Moldovan 2008 household survey data. The consumption parameter values are presented in the tables of Appendix A<sup>**8**</sup> .

# **4 Alternative Scenarios for Moldova to 2020**

In this section, we analyze the importance of different factors for the development of Moldovan economy during the period 2012-2020. First, we will present our _base_ scenario (Section 4.1). The remaining scenarios are divided into the following groups: In section 4.2 we study the role of productivity growth and increased access to exports markets for agriculture and food industry, as well as for other, non-food industry. We also study the importance of productivity growth within the Moldovan transport sector. In section 4.3 we examine the effects of fuel prices and remittances, as well as the role of government transfers to households. Finally, in section 4.5 we present two summarizing scenarios combining shocks from the earlier scenarios.

The basic idea is to evaluate the likely economy-wide effects of growth impulses in different economic sectors, as well of the likely benefits of achievements in different areas of economic policy. In a similar fashion, we also study the likely effects of potential adverse developments. Table 4 below presents the acronyms and short descriptions of the scenarios. We will define the scenarios in greater detail in the corresponding sections below.

**Table 4. Non-base scenarios**

|Scenario|Description|
|---|---|
|_base_|Baseline|
|_agrpweff_|Productivity and export prices of agriculture and food industry are gradually raised by 20% above baseline|
|_indupweff_|Export prices and productivity of non-food industry gradually raised by 20% above baseline|
|_transeff_|Transport sector productivity is gradually raised by 40% above baseline|
|_fuelpwm_|Import prices of fuels are permanently raised by 20% in 2013|
|_remitdecr_|Remittances to households from RoW are lowered by 20% from baseline from 2013 onwards|
|_trnsfrpoor_|20% increase in gov transfers to hhds in 2013; targeted to poor hhds according to base 2012 poverty rates|
|_allgrw_|Combination of positive changes: agrpweff + indupweff + transeff|
|_allgrw-tr_|Combination ofpositive changes with higher transfers: agrpweff + indupweff + transeff + trnsfrpoor|

> **7** Explicit representation of transport and trade margins facilitates analyses of changes in logistic efficiency; given the poor state of Moldova’s road infrastructure, simulations addressing the impact of infrastructure investments on such margins may be a fruitful area for future CGE analysis of Moldova.

> **8** The SAM itself is available on request.

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