According to the most recent data available (from United Nations Population Statistics (2014)), up to the mid-1980s there is a bulge of historically large shares of the population in primary and LS ages (between about 6 and 15 years of age), which is followed by a similar bulge in the 15-20 age group –that includes USE ages- 10 years later (Figure 7). The 1990s and 2000s experienced declining weights in both groups, and after 2005, the faster declining trend in the 10-14 age group leads to a convergence pattern with similar proportions of about 10 percent of the total population being included in both groups.

The share of individuals that complete primary increases constantly from the 1960s to 2000, where it reaches more than 95 percent, and remains relatively stable thereafter (right panel, Figure 7).<sup>24</sup> The pattern for the share in each cohort attending LS is similar for 1960-1995, but accelerates considerably to the extent that by 2013 almost 90 percent of individuals in the cohorts of reference reach the LS level –as compared to only 60 percent by 1990. The net effect of the reducing share of 10-14 and 15-20 year old individuals and the increasing proportion completing primary is a considerable increase in the number of new USE age youth with the academic requirements for accessing LS (by around 17 million for the region between 1995 and 2010) and therefore, an increase in the potential demand for USE (lower panel, Figure 7).

As for results by country, in all but Brazil, Guatemala and Panama, a decline in the number of new entrants into the primary completion category reflects the large improvement in primary completion during the 1990s (Table A.5). The largest declines in additional entrants are observed in Chile and Uruguay, two of the countries in the later stages of the demographic transition in the region (the third column in the table displays the difference between the absolute number of additional individuals that completed primary schooling between 1990 and 2000 in the relevant age bracket, and the absolute number during 2000-2010).

For the 15-20 age group, which includes most of the USE age population in all countries, the number of potential USE entrants between the 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 periods increased for all countries. This implies that the reduced size of each new cohort entering USE age was compensated by the increases in the proportion with primary completion and LS attendance during these years, with the subsequent increase in the potential demand for USE services.

Another important shift is the composition of the population in the schooling system. If income and human capital investment are positively correlated, increases in the population attending school will most likely result in the entry of the lower income groups previously excluded. The

> 24 These data were computed directly from the available household surveys. To obtain a wide time frame we exploit the fact that schooling normally takes place before age 25 and that the micro data identifies the year of birth of all individuals in each survey. For instance, for estimating Primary completion rates during the 1960s, we use household surveys close to the year 1995and identify individuals who are 45 years of age at that point, and who were therefore born around 1950. These individuals were going through Primary and LS ages during the 1960s, so we identify those that declare an education level equivalent or higher to complete Primary, as well as those that reached LS. The share of these individuals in relation to the total population of their cohort provides an estimate of the share belonging to both groups. The same is done for subsequent cohorts, using subsequent surveys.

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