rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
instance, Mendoza, 1995, and Calvo, 1998). The frequency of these external shocks lowered in the last decade, at times significantly, having a beneficial impact on output growth volatility.<sup>10</sup> Next, we review these shocks.

# **Volatility of Foreign Growth**

With the world becoming more integrated and open to trade, economies have been increasingly influenced by growth of their trading partners. Growth rate of trading partners has a significant effect on the growth performance of an open economy. Arora and Vamvakidis (2005), among others, find that a 1percent increase in economic growth of the countries’ trading partners leads to higher domestic growth by 0.8 percentage points. By the same token, growth volatility of trading partners ought to influence output growth volatility, a link documented by Calderón _et al_ (2006). While the world decrease in output growth volatility in the last decades has benefited East Asian countries, it should therefore come as no surprise that their high openness to trade has kept them vulnerable to external fluctuations that can worsen volatility during “bad” times, such as the current financial crisis.

# **Volatility of terms of trade**

Terms of trade shocks affect in particular output volatility of small open economies, although the magnitude to which they do so is subject to debate as it often depends on the methodology used to estimate it.11 Magnitude notwithstanding, the long-term observed decrease in the volatility of terms of trade growth (Figure 16) contributed to lowering East Asia’s output growth volatility, but the recent fluctuations in commodity prices are likely to have reversed that trend.

> 10 Stock and Watson (2002), for instance, analyzing the experience of the G7 countries, find that with the exception of Japan the widespread reduction in volatility is in large part associated with a reduction in the magnitude of common international shocks.

> 11 Calibrations, such as the ones by Mendoza (1995) and Kose (2002), find that terms of trade disturbances can explain from 56 to 88 percent of aggregate output fluctuations. These are however simulations that do not consider the correlation of terms of trade shocks with other variables. On the other end, studies based on vector auto-regressions (VAR) find a much smaller impact, varying from 6 to 15 percent (see, for instance, Ahmed and Murthy, 1994, Hoffmaister and Roldós 1997, and Hoffmaister, Roldós and Wickham, 1998).

19
34

## 'Dable 7

!epri!Sentative 'lmle Strategl.ea and Mlcroec:orxDic IMicators

||Balanced<br>(IS)|Export<br>PraiDtion<br>(B)|(l!P)|
|---|---|---|---|
|TrarJepolicy/Trends<br>Sectonltread~(i.e.exogenass<br>vu1at1oo1ntradeshares)|Lar/falliJw|<bnstant|RI.SillJ|
|Mlcmecoroltcpol1cy<br>imtl\llllmt8|'lUiffs/iqJort<br>ratimirwa/|Realexchqe<br>rateadjustb/|RealE!ICChlqe<br>rateadjustb/|
||1Dif/1nterned1ate|Intenned1ate|High|
|~c<br>lDdic:ators_sf_||||
|IDcr<br>a:-alcapital~<br>put_nt1o,teadnal,pedod|3.26|3.02|2.95|
|!lportgrollthrate|.7.9|10.3|14.1|
|lllportgrartbrata|4.5|6.4|9.3|
|~<br>graNthrate|5.7|6.2|6.5|
|Bt•ofthetraded/reg1JII<br>intmd.nal..,.Ar_!f_|200|100|95|
|Belatiwpriceofcapital<br>aooaintmd.nal,_r~|120|_lOS_|95|

# TrarJe policy/Trends

Source: a__, ... al (1986, Cllp. 4) _!I_ Illport rationlrw 1apli• that a-ante ex.c:ees d8I8Dd for foreigll excbqe is el.Jminated by eOWI'..,.lY cletemhrl'll the prad.\a 011 fore:f.Iw ~e.

t../ lb ntfordJW of illlports ~ x..l of a•!latiw c:apitaliDflCJf 1s 1,900 lllllion 1964 dollars.

dJ IDda - 100 1n 1Dit1al. ,...

,... !/ 'lbe blaB of thl trade regime :h deff.necl as B • !EF -::~ where EER. is the effective exchqe rate (1nc:l••ive of tariffs, 91die& and prald.a Cl :-Sign ~e) md subscripts refer to illlporta aad aporta rMpeet1~ . _·' ._
must take into account the migrant’s absence (Barham and Boucher, 1998). If emigrants are not accounted for in poverty estimates, poverty for some original group of individuals can also be overestimated (Clemens and Pritchett, 2008).

Migration may also have general equilibrium effects on the within-community income distribution. When migration occurs, one expects local wages, either explicitly or implicitly, to rise for the types of workers most likely to migrate, leading to more complex effects on the income distribution than the direct effects on inequality or income. In a cross-section, one could use questions about wages found in the labor modules or labor force surveys to investigate whether communities with more migration have higher increases in wages than other communities, if information on wages in the previous period are also collected. Otherwise, panel data are necessary to investigate general equilibrium effects.

# **Welfare Impact: Health and Education**

The relationship between migration and human capital has also been widely examined, particularly the effects of migration on education and health outcomes of the families left behind (Kanaiaupuni and Donato, 1999; Cox Edwards and Ureta, 2003; Mansuri, 2006; Acosta et al., 2007; Nobles, 2007; Amuedo-Dorantes and Pozo, 2009). These are among the main development benefits of migration in labor-sending lower-income countries. Migration may have positive effects on educational attainment of children in migrant families through the provision of remittances to alleviate credit constraints. Calero et al. (2008) find that remittances increase school enrollment and act to ensure education 28
Crespi, G., Criscuolo, C., Haskel, J., and D. Hawkes (2006) “Measuring and Understanding Productivity in UK Market Services,” _Oxford Review of Economic Policy_ 22, pp. 560-572.

Eschenbach, F. and B. Hoekman (2006) “Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies,” _Review of World Economics_ 142, pp. 746-764.

Griliches, Z. (1992) _Output Measurement in the Services Sector_ . NBER Studies in Income and Wealth Vol 56. University of Chicago Press. Chicago, IL.

OECD (2005). _Enhancing the Performance of the Services Sector._ O’Mahony, M. and B. van Ark (2003) _EU Productivity and Competitiveness: An Industry Perspective_ . European Comission.

Timmer, M., Moergastel, T., Stuivenwold, Ypma, G., O’Mahony, M., and M. Kangasniemi (2007a) “EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts Version 1.0 Part I Methodology,” mimeo Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.

Timmer, M., Ypma, G. and B. Ark (2007b) “PPPs for Industry Output: A New Dataset for International Comparisons,” mimeo Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.

Tripplet, J. and B. Bosworth (2004) _Productivity in the US Services Sector: New Sources of Economic Growth_ . Brookings Institution. Washington DC.

Van Ark, B., Monnikohf, E. and N. Mulder (1999) “Productivity in Services: An International Comparative Perspective,” _Canadian Journal of Economics_ 99, pp. 471499.

Van Ark, B. and M. Piatkowski (2004) “Productivity, Innovation, and ICT in Old and New Europe,” _International Economics and Economic Policy_ , 1, pp. 215-246.

Van Ark, B. and M. Piatkowski (2006) “Productivity Growth, Technology and Structural Reform in Transition Economies: A Two-Phase Convergence Process,” IMF mimeo.

Wolfl, A. (2003). “Productivity Growth in Service Industries: An Assessment of Recent Patterns and the Role of Measurement,” STI Working Paper 2003/7, OECD.

World Bank (2006). _From Disintegration to Reintegration: Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union in International Trade_ Edited by Harry G. Broadman.

40
# **Graph I-1**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Colombia: average tariff 1986-<br>2002<br>Colombia Andean average<br>50<br>45,3<br>45 44,0<br>40<br>36,0 36,8<br>35<br>P<br>29,5<br>er 30<br>ce<br>25<br>nt 21,2<br>ag 20<br>e<br>15 11,1 11,8 11,0 11,8 12,8 12,6 11,7 11,9<br>10<br>5<br>0<br>1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995 2002<br>Source: Echavarría and Gamboa (2001)<br><!-- End of picture text --> In the context of the new trade policy, a special treatment was afforded to the agricultural sector. The distortions of the international markets led to the design of a variable tariff arrangement for a sizeable number of products, i.e. _price bands_ . With this mechanism, when international prices fall below a certain level, tariffs are automatically increased. By the same token, when international prices increase above a given level, tariffs are reduced. The price band mechanism was harmonized at the Andean level and it currently covers 13 main products and close to 150 tariff positions of derivative or substitute products.<sup>4</sup> Although the original objective of the Andean System of Bands was to insulate regional economies from the fluctuations of international agricultural prices, the design of the instrument had a protectionist bias that soon became apparent. In fact, the average tariff applied to the products

> 4 The main products covered by the Andean system of price bands are meats, vegetable oils, wheat, dairy products, corn, rice, soja and sugar, as well as their derivatives and substitutes.

5
_b. School dropout._ We referred to teacher reports to measure whether the participants dropped out and created a dummy indicator that equals 1 if the student abandoned school in 2019.<sup>34</sup> We collected dropout data from 868 students in the follow-up only.

_c. Academic performance._ We use students’ grades as a proxy for academic performance. Since we do not have a standardized test for the three countries, we use math grades because the mathematics curricula in these three countries are similar and, therefore, comparable.<sup>35</sup> In all cases, a higher value indicates better math grades. To standardize the measure of math-grade reports among countries and schools, we define the outcome as a dummy indicator that equals 1 if the student has a behavior score above the median of the school they attend.

A potential concern in using teachers’ reports to measure the main outcomes is that this reporting may be affected by teachers’ knowing which students are participating in the ASP. We argue that this occurrence is unlikely because we requested the records of all students, without informing the teachers that we were going to use only the data from students participating in the ASP.

# **B. Mechanisms**

According to the conceptual framework and existing evidence summarized in Heller et al. (2017) and Dinarte-Diaz and Egana-delSol (2023), behavioral outcomes correlate in a statistically significant way with skills such as self-control, emotion regulation, persistence, and prudence. For this reason, we collected data to measure proxies for these skills using the SoftGames (to measure socio-emotional skills) and Reactiva (to measure fluid intelligence and emotion regulation) applications.

# **Social-Emotional Skills**

SoftGames was developed and used by Danon et al. (2023). It can be played on a tablet and

> Guatemala, we asked teachers to do it for this study. As for 2023, data were collected for school reports in all three countries.

> 34We are able to measure school dropout only for students who (i) were not enrolled in the same school (or in any other school in our sample) or (ii) reported they were going to abandon the educational system (due to migration to another country, for example).

> 35Teachers in Honduras and Guatemala score performance between 0 and 100, and teachers in El Salvador report math grades with a score between 0 and 10.

19
was the case for the main outcome of interest, the treatments had similar effects on whether respondents would encourage others to get a COVID-19 vaccine regardless of their degree of involvement in household decision making (see Figure 10b).

# **4.3 Summary of Findings from the Online Experiment**

The online experiment provides several important findings about intra-household dynamics and people’s willingness to get vaccinated. Firstly, consistent with Hypothesis 1 and the results of the in-person survey, there is a strong association between the attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines among members of the same household. Secondly, consistent with Hypothesis 2, accurate information about the benefits of getting vaccinated improved attitudes towards vaccines and this did not vary based on whether individual or household level benefits were emphasized. Thirdly, counter to Hypothesis 3, accurate information was far more effective at decreasing unwillingness to get vaccinated among those without other household members who were willing to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Fourthly, counter to Hypothesis 4, the treatments were not more effective at increasing willingness to get vaccinated among those who stated they were involved in household decisions. Finally, we present suggestive evidence that there may be second round effects from accurate information, whereby respondents who received a treatment were more likely to encourage their household members to get vaccinated (this was entirely driven by those without other household members who were already willing).

28
<!-- Start of picture text --> the many developing countries that view diversification of production and exports as a key devel-<br>opment objective. Indeed, Imbs and Wacziarg (2003) show that a higher level of per capita income<br>tends to be associated with a more diverse production structure, at least until relatively late in the<br>development process when specialization effects begin to dominate. Funke and Ruhwedel (2001)<br>find that export diversification is positively related to per capita GDP and TFP growth in OECD<br>countries. Similarly, Hausmann et al. (2006) report that exports of particular sets of products are<br>associated with higher national income levels.<br>If diversification can have a positive impact on a country’s growth and development prospects,<br>what are the policy options available to support that process? Traditional inward-looking develop-<br>ment policies (e.g., Prebisch, 1959) used import protection and industrial policy to induce diversifi-<br>cation into non-traditional goods. In line with the increasing relevance of outward-looking policies,<br>it has recently been suggested that more effective trade preferences covering non-traditional exports<br>might be part of the answer (Collier and Venables, 2007). However, the historical experience with<br>such schemes has been at best mixed (Ozden and Reinhardt, 2005). An alternative approach re-<br>cently suggested by Rodrik (2004) includes a type of "new age" industrial policy, emphasizing the<br>provision of public goods and measures to facilitate innovation and entrepreneurship.<br>The novelty of the present paper lies in providing a comprehensive framework that makes it<br>possible to analyze and compare policies such as these from an export diversification standpoint.<br>By characterizing diversification in terms of export growth at the extensive (or "new products")<br>margin, we can draw on the recent heterogeneous firms literature following Melitz (2003), as well<br>as empirical work that has started charting the pattern of extensive margin growth. One example of<br>this recent empirical literature is Broda and Weinstein (2006), who use US import data at the 7- and<br>10-digit levels to show that import variety increased approximately threefold over a 30 year period,<br>leading to substantial national welfare gains. Hummels and Klenow (2005) examine extensive<br>margin growth across 126 exporting countries and 59 importing countries, relying primarily on<br>trade data at the 6-digit level. They find that larger, richer countries systematically trade in a<br>relatively wider range of goods. Kehoe and Ruhl (2003) present similar evidence in respect of<br>2<br><!-- End of picture text -->
|Table 7<br>Estimated parametric adjustment functions<br>Pre and postMercosurestimation<br>White collar<br>adjustment|Blue collar<br>adjustment|Capital<br>adjustment|
|---|---|---|
|Constant<br>0.089|0.367|0.071|
|[0.027]***|[0.029]***|[0.026]***|
|Pos Shortage<br>0.083|-0.180|-0.055|
|[0.048]*|[0.044]***|[0.042]|
|(ShortageW)^2<br>0.174|0.022|0.008|
|[0.014]***|[0.012]*|[0.012]|
|(ShortageW)^2*Pos<br>-0.107|||
|[0.024]***|||
|(ShortageB)^2<br>-0.005|0.029|-0.020|
|[0.014]|[0.017]*|[0.013]|
|(ShortageB)^2*Pos|0.012||
||[0.023]||
|(ShortageK)^2<br>-0.010|0.021|0.191|
|[0.011]|[0.010]**|[0.009]***|
|(ShortageK)^2*Pos||-0.148|
|||[0.017]***|
|(ShortageW)*(ShortageB)<br>-0.038|-0.001|0.003|
|[0.014]***|[0.013]|[0.016]|
|(ShortageW)*(ShortageK)<br>-0.027|-0.008|-0.009|
|[0.012]**|[0.014]|[0.012]|
|(ShortageB)*(ShortageK)<br>0.025|-0.058|-0.048|
|[0.016]|[0.012]***|[0.011]***|
|Constant*Mercosur<br>-0.035|-0.307|0.022|
|[0.032]|[0.031]***|[0.03]|
|Pos Shortage*Mercosur<br>0.099|0.487|0.081|
|[0.048]**|[0.043]***|[0.042]*|
|(ShortageW)^2*Mercosur<br>0.025|||
|[0.018]|||
|(ShortageW)^2*Pos*Mercosur<br>-0.002|||
|[0.028]|||
|(ShortageB)^2*Mercosur|0.107||
||[0.020]***||
|(ShortageB)^2*Pos*Mercosur|-0.090<br>[0.029]***||
|(ShortageK)^2*Mercosur||-0.062|
|||[0.014]***|
|(ShortageK)^2*Pos*Mercosur||0.060|
|||[0.021]***|
|Observations<br>4945|4945|4945|
|Number of id<br>627|627|627|
|R-squared<br>0.31<br>Note: Pos Shortage: Dummy=1 if Shortage is<br>ShortageK are the shortages for white collar. blue<br>dummy that takes the value 1 for all observations afte<br>*significant at10%;**significant at 5%;***significan|0.33<br>positive. Shortage<br>collar and capital.<br>r 1989. Standard e<br>t at1%|0.38<br>W. ShortageB.<br>Mercosur is a<br>rrors in brackets|

24
Policy Research Working Paper 9322

# **Abstract**

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of individuals’ and couples’ labor supply, savings, and retirement decisions to analyze how the design of a privatized pension system affects gender pension gaps. Chile has one of the longest running nationwide private retirements accounts systems in the world, operating since 1980. It has served as a model for many countries and was reformed in 2008 to alleviate old- age poverty and reduce gender pension gaps. The paper estimates the dynamic model using pre-reform data and compares the model’s short-term predictions with available evidence on the reform’s causal impacts. The analysis finds that household structure is an important determinant of the behavioral and distributional impacts of the reform. The paper evaluates how actual and counterfactual changes in the pension system design affect men’s and women’s economic decisions, pension receipts, and program costs over a longer time horizon. Three design features significantly reduce gender pension gaps: expanding minimum pension benefit eligibility, providing a per-child pension bonus, and increasing women’s retirement age to be equal to men’s.

This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at cjoubert@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
**<u>Table 2: Changes in farm structure 2001 to 2011, by region</u>**

||**Year **|**Total **|**West**|**East**|**North **|**South **|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Area cultivated|2001|20.59|4.95|4.65|5.84|5.16|
|(mn ha.)|2006|15.19|3.02|3.45|4.76|3.97|
||2011|17.61|3.14|4.07|5.79|4.61|
|Avg. farm size (ha)|2001|2061|1268|3063|2099|2879|
||2006|2222|1311|3172|2245|2987|
||2011|2305|2005|2498|2529|2138|
|Median farm size (ha)|2001|1625|1118|2671|1864|2502|
||2006|1630|991|2484|1716|2432|
||2011|1429|1112|1668|1490|1432|
|Land Gini|2001|0.316|0.304|0.337|0.299|0.352|
||2006|0.352|0.371|0.343|0.353|0.324|
||2011|0.473|0.505|0.453|0.472|0.466|
|Area under farms|2001|654,755|34,887|313,842|109,704|196,323|
|> 10,000 ha|2006|1,338,368|167,050|491,190|387,288|292,840|
||2011|3,437,111|781,618|655,626|1,468,147|531,720|
|Area under farms|2001|255,572|-|191,426|64,146|-|
|> 20,000 ha|2006|583,714|41,720|261,433|196,375|84,186|
||2011|2,009,043|335,687|424,593|1,035,412|213,351|
|No. of farms|2001|40|3|15|6|16|
|> 10,000 ha|2006|73|10|24|21|18|
||2011|155|45|24|56|30|
|No of farms|2001|7|0|5|2|0|
|> 20,000 ha|2006|16|1|6|7|2|
||2011|47|11|7|24|5|
|Maximum farm size|2001|88032|12443|88032|35500|18247|
|(ha)|2006|88751|41720|88751|45491|46000|
||2011|142014|45485|142014|135741|82710|

_Source:_ Own computation from Form 50.

19
- Howard, J., Huang, A., Li, Z., Tufekci, Z., Zdimal, V., van der Westhuizen, H.-M., von Delft, A., Price, A., Fridman, L., Tang, L.-H., Tang, V., Watson, G. L., Bax, C. E., Shaikh, R., Questier, F., Hernandez, D., Chu, L. F., Ramirez, C. M., & Rimoin, A. W. (2021). An evidence review of face masks against covid-19. _Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences_ , 118(4).

- Konda, A., Prakash, A., Moss, G. A., Schmoldt, M., Grant, G. D., & Guha, S. (2020). Aerosol filtration efficiency of common fabrics used in respiratory cloth masks. _ACS nano_ , 14(5), 6339–6347.

- Miguel, E. & Kremer, M. (2004). Worms: identifying impacts on education and health in the presence of treatment externalities. _Econometrica_ , 72(1), 159–217.

- Roth, J. (2021). Pre-test with caution: Event-study estimates after testing for parallel trends.

- Wooldridge, J. M. (1999). Distribution-free estimation of some nonlinear panel data models. _Journal of Econometrics_ , 90(1), 77–97.

- World Health Organization (2020). Advice on the use of masks in the context of covid-19. `https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/331693/ WHO-2019-nCov-IPC_Masks-2020.3-eng.pdf` . Accessed: 2021-01-26.

31
# The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from a narrative approach<sup>*</sup>

Diego Rojas Carlos Vegh World Bank and UMBC Johns Hopkins University and NBER Guillermo Vuletin World Bank

**JEL Classification:** E32, E52, E58, F31, F41.

**Keywords:** macroprudential policy, reserve requirements, monetary policy, narrative approach, identification, business cycle, endogeneity, macroeconomic effects.

> * We would like to thank Diego Anzoategui, Larry Ball, Roberto Chang, Tito Cordella, Robert Dekle, Sebastian Edwards, Alain Ize, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Graciela Kaminsky, Markus Kirchner, Nicolas Magud, David Papell, Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci, Daniel Riera-Crichton, Augusto de la Torre, Martin Uribe, Bent Vale, Jaume Ventura, and seminar/conference participants at USC, Norges Bank, NBER/Central Bank of Turkey, IMF, Central Bank of Uruguay, FLAR conference (Cartagena), Central Bank of Bolivia, and the conference on Financial Frictions: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Options for Emerging Economies (Central Bank of Chile) for useful and insightful comments. Jorge Puig, Becky Newman, and Pedro Pablo Matinez provided excellent research assistance. The views expressed in the paper are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank.