Table (E7) Impacts of the Program on Migration

|**Outcomes**|**Treatment**|**(se)**|**FDR**<br>**q-values**|**Control**<br>**mean**|**(sd)**|**N**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|# Moves Since 2011|0.07|(0.20)|[1.00]|2.64|(1.35)|1,417|
|Stay Permanently in Jordan (=1)|-0.05|(0.06)|[1.00]|0.60|(0.49)|1,375|
|Plans to Leave MENA (=1)|0.01|(0.08)|[1.00]|0.27|(0.44)|1,415|
|Better off Now than Syria 2011 (=1)|0.03|(0.06)|[1.00]|0.50|(0.50)|1,419|
|Better off Now than Last Residence (=1)|0.05|(0.06)|[1.00]|0.78|(0.41)|1,419|
|Ppl Known in Jordan upon Arrival (SD)|-0.09|(0.17)|[1.00]|0.00|(1.00)|1,420|
|Ppl Travelled With (SD)|-0.01|(0.14)|[1.00]|-0.00|(1.00)|1,421|
|Plans to Move? (SD)|-0.16|(0.13)|[1.00]|-0.00|(1.00)|1,416|
|Prep Time before Flee (SD)|0.21|(0.17)|[1.00]|-0.00|(1.00)|1,416|
|Plan to Stay in Current Residence (SD)|-0.03|(0.15)|[1.00]|-0.00|(1.00)|808|
|Confict End in 2 Years? (SD)|0.29**|(0.15)|[1.00]|0.00|(1.00)|1,209|
|Return in 2 Years? (SD)|0.12|(0.13)|[1.00]|-0.00|(1.00)|1,403|
|Return 2 Years After War End? (SD)|-0.02|(0.16)|[1.00]|-0.00|(1.00)|1,393|

**_Notes_** :

- The table shows the regression results on pre-specified migration outcomes using the 2021 in-person data. Each row is its own dependent variable.

- The outcomes that require definitions are: Variables with (SD) are scaled with respect to the control population and (=1) represents indicators. # moves since 2011 reports the number of times the FR’s household moved residences for at least 4 months at a time since January 2011. Stay permanently in Jordan is an indicator where 1 corresponds to the FR responding ‘yes’ to “Even when the conflict ends, would you like to stay in Jordan permanently?”. Plans to leave MENA corresponds to “Have you taken any concrete steps towards moving to the US, Europe, Australia, or somewhere else outside of the region?”. People known in Jordan upon arrival is a standardized categorical variable with 4 roughly equally populated bins: 0, 1-3,4-10, 11+. People travelled with is a standardized categorical variable based on “When you first moved to Jordan, how many people travelled with you?” with 4 roughly equally populated bins: 0-3, 4-5,6-10, 11+. Plans to move is a standardized categorical variable based on responses to “Do you have firm plans to change your residence from your current location within the next six months?” Prep time before flee is a standardized categorical variable based on responses to “How long before you left Syria for the first time did you start preparing to move?” Conflict end in 2 years is a standardized variable based on “How likely do you think the conflict will end within the next two years? ” Return in 2 years is a standardized variable based on “How likely are you to return to Syria in the next two years if the conflict is unresolved?” Return in 2 years after war ends is a standardized variable based on “How likely are you to return to Syria within two years of the conflict resolving?”

- The independent variable of interest is the TOT treatment indicator, which is the predicted value from a first-stage regression of treatment implementation on treatment assignment.

- The regressions also have assessment month-by-year fixed effects, enumerator fixed effects, community-level controls (Irbid/Mafraq governorate and population quartile), and household-level controls (vulnerability-assessment quartile, shelter program, baseline number of children, baseline number of children plus adults, respondent gender, and respondent age). In the parentheses are robust standard errors clustered at the locality level. Regressions are weighted by the number of people interviewed in each household. Statistical significance represented by * (10%), ** (5%), and *** (1%). Q-values are calculated per Anderson (2008) and correspond to Family 5 in the preanalysis plan.

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