rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
percent in 2011. As a result, the share of the population aged 15 and 24 able to read at least part of a sentence increased five-fold from 8 to 36 percent, the share of the population aged 6 years and over with no education declined from 69 percent to 46 percent, and the average years of schooling of this population increased from 4.0 to 4.5 years.

**Table 2. Proportions of deprived households in the total population in urban and rural areas,  2000 - 11**

|Deprivation Indicator|||Ur|ban||||R|ural||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||||Change|Change||||Change|Change|
||2000|2005|2011|2011-<br>2005|2011-<br>2000|2000|2005|2011|2011-<br>2005|2011-<br>2000|
|_1. Education, Health,_<br>1.1 Education of<br>school-aged children|_Water an_<br>0.26|_d Sanitati_<br>0.26|_on_<br>0.16|-0.10***|-0.10***|0.83|0.80|0.58|-0.22***|-0.25***|
|1.2 Health facility<br>quality|-|0.74|0.67|-0.07***|-|-|0.83|0.77|-0.06***|-|
|1.3 Health facility<br>access|0.02|0.01|0.04|0.03***|0.02**|0.62|0.56|0.32|-0.24***|-0.30***|
|1.4 Drinking water|0.08|0.07|0.05|-0.02*|-0.03**|0.82|0.77|0.59|-0.18***|-0.23***|
|1.5 Sanitation|0.54|0.51|0.53|0.02|-0.01|0.93|0.83|0.45|-0.37***|-0.48***|
|_2. Aspirations_|||||||||||
|2.1 Source of<br>Information|0.33|0.25|0.15|-0.10***|-0.18***|0.86|0.79|0.62|-0.17***|-0.25***|
|_3. Wellbeing of Girls_|_and Wome_|_n_|||||||||
|31 Edcation of|||||||||||
|. u<br>school-aged girls|0.22|0.23|0.14|-0.09***|-0.08***|0.79|0.72|0.46|-0.26***|-0.33***|
|3.2 Institutional birth|-|0.59|0.52|-0.07***|-|-|0.98|0.96|-0.02***|-|
|3.3 Female<br>circumcision|-|-|0.19|-|-|-|-|0.30|-|-|
|_4. Monetary Dimensio_|_ns_||||||||||
|4.1 Assets|0.33|0.21|0.12|-0.08***|-0.21***|0.86|0.69|0.53|-0.16***|-0.33***|
|4.2 Below national<br>povertyline<br>Notes: Deprivation in|0.36<br>dicators|0.35<br>are spec|0.26<br>ified fo|-0.09***<br>r 2011. Det|-0.10***<br>ails on these|0.45<br>2011|0.39<br>indicator|0.30<br>s and|-0.09***<br>notes abou|-0.15***<br>t the minor|

<mark>Notes: Deprivation indicators are specified for 2011. Details on these 2011 indicators and notes about the minor differences in definitions for the 2000 and 2005 indicators are included in Appendix A (Tables A1 and A2). The two education indicators are defined for those households with at least one school-aged child (aged 7-15) and with at least one school-aged female child, respectively. The institutional birth indicator is defined for those households with at least one child aged 0-4. The female circumcision indicator is defined for those households with at least one female children aged 0-14. The “Change” columns show the coefficient estimate for the difference in proportions from 2000 (or 2005) to 2011. The asterisks indicate the significance level: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.</mark> 7
We further examine the validity of this interpretation by exploring the effect of PM2 _._ 5 on children’s health.<sup>33</sup> To do so, we use data on self-reported children morbidity from the DHS. Our main outcome is the presence of cough accompanied with short breath. This is a common indicator of acute respiratory disease. As a falsification test, we also estimate the effect of PM2 _._ 5 on other diseases, not linked to short term exposure to air pollution, such as fever, diarrhea, and anemia. Our empirical specification is similar to (1) but there are some changes due to the limitations of the DHS dataset.<sup>34</sup> In particular, we include as covariates month and year fixed effects, weather controls, and children and mother’s characteristics, but do not include household, week, or municipality-by-year fixed effects.<sup>35</sup> As measures of exposure to pollution we use an indicator of average PM2 _._ 5 exceeding the U.S. standard and the log of average PM2 _._ 5.<sup>36</sup> Table 3 displays the results. Consistent with the existing literature, we find a positive and significant relationship between exposure to PM2 _._ 5 and our indicator of acute respiratory disease, but there is no significant relationship with other non-respiratory diseases. The magnitude of this relationship is sizable. According to our results, reducing PM2 _._ 5 to the compliance level with the U.S. standards would lead to a 9 percent reduction in the incidence of acute respiratory diseases. This represents almost half the average incidence.

# **4.2 Additional checks**

Our identification assumption would be violated in the presence of confounding, unobserved, omitted determinants of labor supply that vary over time within census blocks. In other words, if there were omitted variables that have not been fully accounted for by the rich set of fixed effects (week and municipality-by-year). We address this concern in two ways. First, we add a richer set of time-varying controls, namely, quarter-by-year fixed effects and non-parametric trends interacted with observable characteristics, such as poverty status, number of income earners, and worker’s age. The results, however, are similar (see column 1 in Table 4). Second,

> 33We are, however, unable to examine the effect on adults and the elderly due to data limitations. The DHS only covers morbidity of children 5 years and younger, while the ENAHO’s health data covers a long reference period and does not distinguish respiratory diseases.

> 34The main limitations are that (1) the DHS does not have a panel sample, (2) covers fewer years (2007 to 2009), (3) the sample is not distributed over the whole year, and (4) household’s locations are randomly displaced. These features prevent the use of household or week fixed effects, and difficult matching the household to a given municipality.

> 35See notes of Table 3 for additional estimation details.

> 36Results are similar using a more flexible specification with a step function of PM2 _._ 5 similar to the one used in Section 4.3, see Table B.2 in the Appendix.

16
7 to emerge In tandem with shortfalls In revenues as oil demand fell well short of expectations. Average annual GDP growth for oil exporters as a whole was only 1 percent hetween 1980 and 1988.

Oil Importing and exporting countries faced additional price fluctuations, such as t.tose Imposed by changing terms of trade, tightened trade regulations of industrialized countries, and slow growth in world markets. Malaysia, for example, had to face both falling oil and commouity prices from 1980 to 1984. By mid-decade, the majority of developing countries had to face the need for stabilizattion programs to decrease public budget and balance of payments deficits and adjustment programs to reduce market price distortions and establish conditions favoring sustained economic growth.

# GDP Growth Rates

The average annual GDP growth rate in low-income countries was 6.4 percent from i980 to 1988. For lower-middle income countries it was 2.6 percent and for upper-middle income countries it - was 3.3 percent (World Bank, 1990). Of the six developing countries represented in this study - Egypt, Malaysia, Nigeria, South Korea, Thailand, and TLni' five exceeded the average rate of growth for their respective income groups. Nigeria was the exception, as its growth rate was -1.1 percent per annum over the period (See Table 1). The growth of these countries is found below to vary with the choice of development strategy.

South Korea, which is highly dependent on imported oil, registered negative growth in 1980 in response to the second oil shock. The recession extended into 1982, but thereafter, the South Korean economy experienced an economic boom with real growth rates in excess of 11 percent. In Southeast Asia, Thailand and Malaysia began to emerge as newly industrializing countres. After a sharp, but brief recession in 1986, when real GDP growth fell to 4.5 percent, Thailand's economy recovered quickly with growth surging to 10 percent in 1988. Malaysia experienced a similar pattem of recession and a rapid, strong recovery.
|Table 4:<br>Are|Benefits, Costs and Revenues of Car Ownership Fiscal Restraint Measure,<br>a Licensing and Electronic Road Pricing Schemes, by Vehicle<sup>Class per year</sup><br>compared to 1991 Reference (in millions of 1985 Hong Kong dollars)<sup>....</sup><br>69|
|---|---|
|Table S: A|Comparison of Road Use Charging Mechanisms<br>...<br>70|
|Annex 1:|The Singapore Area Licensing Scheme, 1975 to present ............<br>..77|
|A.|<br>Background Information .77|
|B.|Analysis of Results (1975-89) .78|
|C.|Analysis of Results (1989-present) .80<br>|
|D.|<br>Financial and Economic Evaluation<br>81|
|E.|Lessons forImplementing AreaLicensing.84|
|Annex 2:|The Manually-Operated<br>Bergen Toll Ring, 1986 to present ....<br>........<br>86<br>|
|A.|<br>Background Information<br>..<br>86<br>|
|B.|Analysis of Results<br>..<br>87<br>|
|C.|<br>Evaluation.<br>8<br>|
|D.|<br>Lessons for Implementing Cordon Pricing via Toilgates and Reserved|
||Lanes .89|

|Annex 3: The Electronic and Manual Zone Fee Proposals of Stockholm<br>1992 .|,<sup>1989 and</sup><br>90|
|---|---|
|A.<br>The Electronic and Manual Zone Fee Proposals of Stockholm,|<sup>1989 ....</sup><br>90|
|<br>B.<br>The Dennis Package, 1991-92<br>.................|<br>91|
|**REF**<br>**NCEs**............................................|...<br>93|
But MFN tariff rates are an imperfect benchmark for the preferential treatment provided by AGOA in the US, given the proliferation of preferential trade agreements between the US and non-African countries. A better benchmark is the preferential tariff rates granted by the US trade agreements with other countries captured by competition-adjusted relative preference margin (RPM) as in Nicita (2011). The RPM captures the difference between the trade-weighted average tariffs paid by competitor countries, with a higher RPM indicating a higher preference in the US (see Online Appendix B). AGOA resulted in an RPM in apparel for the African countries that is as large as that given by the North American Free Trade Agreement to Mexico and is robust to the Central American Free Trade Agreement preferences given to El Salvador from 2005 onwards.

SSA manufacturing exports to the US grew steadily from 1997 to 2007, fell due to the Great Recession and stabilized afterwards while SSA apparel exports to the US grew rapidly after 1997, accelerated after 2000, but declined steadily after 2005, then picking up again and stabilizing after 2010 (see Online Appendix Figure B3).<sup>25</sup> These aggregate patterns are not typical for all SSA countries. We cluster heterogenous patterns of countries exports post-AGOA into four groups (see Online Appendix Figure B4). First, a ‘missed opportunities’ group, typified by Cameroon, includes countries with limited exports to the US which did not take significant advantage of AGOA at any stage.<sup>26</sup> Second, a ‘boom-bust’ group, typified by Eswatini, includes countries experiencing a large boom in apparel exports to the US immediately after AGOA starts, followed by a dramatic bust after the MFA ends in 2005, and settling at low levels subsequently. Third, a ‘growth and stagnation’ group, typified by Lesotho, includes countries with substantial growth in apparel exports in the initial years of AGOA, a small decline when the MFA ended, and stagnant exports

> 25 Restrictive ROO or administrative burdens are potentially an obstacle for SSA exports to qualify for duty-free treatment in the US under AGOA. But we find that AGOA utilization rates, i.e., the share of preference-eligible imports that enter the US using AGOA, rapidly reached 90 percent (see Online Appendix B).

> 26 In the Online Appendix B figures, the notes list the other countries in each of the four groups.

15
# 3. REVIEWING THE EVIDENCE ON WHAT WORKS TO PROMOTE SOCIAL COHESION

This section reviews the literature presenting the existing evidence on what works – and what does not – to promote social cohesion. This section reviews a broad range of interventions, including mechanisms to strengthen local institutions, to repair inter-group dynamics, to improve perceptions of the government and state legitimacy, and to reduce or prevent the incidence of violence. It aims to provide an up-to-date synthesis of what we have learned, though individual studies and systematic reviews, about the type of interventions that may effectively promote social cohesion.

In the last years, several studies have provided evidence that interventions can strengthen specific dimensions of social cohesion. This section reviews academic papers that address the impact of interventions targeting at least one of the three dimensions of social cohesion – bonding, bridging, and linking, in both FCV and non FCV contexts. For the section on bridging, the evidence includes a recent systematic literature review carried out by the International Initiative on Impact Evaluation (3ie) on strengthening inter-group dynamics that assessed 24 studies spanning 31 interventions (Doherty et al., 2021), as well as an evidence synthesis published by IPA (Knox et al., 2021). It expands these reviews with the addition of papers published after their conclusion. To do so, we employed the snowball methodology and used Google Scholar to identify papers that cited papers included within the systematic review. Doing so allowed us to use the systematic review as a starting point and then look at additional evidence to build on and assess counter-narratives to the findings of the systematic review along with shedding light on additional interventions not covered in the review that also target dimensions of social cohesion. For the section on linking, in the absence of any relevant systematic review, we used Google Scholar to identify studies that included specific interventions and relevant outcomes related to citizen-state relations. The review included 52 studies published since 2011. Our sample includes 14 studies on interventions focused on bonding, 11 focused on bridging, and 29 studies focused on linking dimensions of social cohesion.

The evidence reviewed covered a broad range of previously under-studied mechanisms and specific interventions that target social cohesion. Along with recent interest in applying social cohesion concepts to development interventions, the evidence base on the effectiveness of such interventions has continued to grow. While a few years ago most studies on social cohesion focused on community-based programming, recent years have seen an expansion of studies covering a broad range of social and economic interventions. This has included contexts ranging from forced displacement to the reintegration of ex-combatants, and innovative instruments including perspective taking workshops, reconciliation forums and trainings on alternative dispute resolution mechanisms.

27 | P a g e
# **1. Introduction**

Youth unemployment is a ubiquitous problem in most developed and developing countries. Over seventy-three million youth aged 15-24 are unemployed worldwide, and around 20 percent of the world’s youth are neither employed nor enrolled in an education or training program (International Labour Organization, 2017). For disadvantaged youth, who disproportionately lack skills and access to decent jobs that could lift them out of poverty, labor-market conditions are even more dramatic (International Labour Organization, 2015). In Mongolia, the setting of this study, the share of young individuals who were neither employed nor enrolled in an education or training program topped 25 percent (Shatz et al., 2015).

This study assesses the effectiveness of a vocational-training program on labor-market outcomes of disadvantaged youth in Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, following a standard randomized controlled trial design (hereafter, RCT). Vocational-training programs are the most widely used active-labor-market policy (hereafter, ALMP) intended to mitigate unemployment among poor youth worldwide, but no evidence exists regarding their effectiveness in central Asia. The most recent meta-analyses (e.g., McKenzie, 2017, Card et al., 2018, and Kluve et al., 2019) have revealed this important gap in the literature. Indeed, this large body of evidence shows modest (e.g., McKenzie, 2017) to positive (e.g., Kluve et al., 2019) effects of vocational-training programs on employment and earnings of youth in developing settings.<sup>2</sup> A solid pattern that has emerged from this literature is the substantial

> 2 McKenzie (2017) assessed the results of twelve RCT vocational training programs from eight different developing countries and reported an increase of 2.3 percentage points in employment and a 17 percent increase in earnings on average, although less than one-third of these twelve studies have reported statistically significant effects. Kluve et al. (2019) focused exclusively on vocational training programs that targeted youth following both experimental and non-experimental designs. Based on 113 studies from thirty-one developed and developing countries, they reported statistically significant impacts with effect sizes measured by 0.04 and 0.05

2
Table 2: Human capital outcomes and category at each survey round.

|**Outcome**|**Defnition**|**Rapid**<br>**Resurvey**|**Midline**|**Endline**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Desired Fertility|Desired number of children at time of<br>survey|Primary|Secondary|Secondary|
|Time preferences|=1 if prefers 110,000 Uganda Shs one<br>month from now vs. 90,000 today|Primary|Secondary|Secondary|
|Expectations of paid work|Probability (0-10) of engaging in paid<br>work at age 25|Primary|Secondary|Secondary|
||Total score (0-3) on set of questions on||||
|Skill-based Competencies|ability to make change that test nu-<br>meracy and literacy|Primary|Primary<sup>_†_</sup>|Primary|
|Life Expectancy|Number (0-10) of 10 young women<br>just like respondent alive at 40|Secondary|-|-|
|Education Aspirations|Aspires<br>to<br>complete<br>tertiary<br>schooling<sup>_∗_</sup>|Secondary|-|-|
|Desired age of frst preg-<br>nancy|Wants to be pregnant within the next<br>5 years (1 if already pregnant)<sup>_∗_</sup>|Secondary|-|-|
|Desired age of frst mar-<br>riage|Wants to get married within the next<br>5 years (1 if already married)<sup>_∗_</sup>|Secondary|-|-|
|Risky Sex|=1 if no condom use at last sex|-|Primary|Primary|
|Incidence of marriage|Change in ever married since baseline|-|Primary|Primary|
|Incidence of pregnancy|Change in ever pregnant since baseline|-|Primary|Primary|
|School enrollment|=1 if Enrolled in School<sup>+</sup>|-|Primary|Primary|
|Self-Efcacy|Score on Self-Efcacy Scale (10-40)|-|Primary|Primary|

Notes: _∗_ Outcome is slightly different from the one that was pre-specified; + The enrollment variable is defined as enrolled in school or enrolled when school was last in session if not currently in session, or has completed secondary schooling; _†_ the competencies score could not be measured at midline because the survey was implemented over the phone because of restrictions due to COVID-19.

32
# RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Calculating the ICC demonstrates that approximately ten percent of the total variance in support for foreign aid can be attributed to between-country differences (7% in the WVS and 13% in GI).<sup>7</sup> Thus, a nontrivial amount of the variance in support occurs across countries and it is important to explain this variation as well as the variation within countries. Indeed, a simple ANOVA indicates that there is statistically significant country-level variance in support for foreign aid in both analyses. That is, support for foreign aid varies a significant amount across countries.

We begin our discussion of the results with the WVS analyses. Table 4 tests individual-level theories of support for foreign aid. These five models consider only individual-level effects but account for the clustering of individual respondents within countries with a random coefficients regression model (Bryk and Raudenbush 1992:20).

A preliminary look across the models in Table 4 suggests that all four theories of individual differences in support for foreign aid find some support. First, although the IMPORTANCE OF RELIGION to an individual does not have a significant effect on support for foreign aid, ATTENDING SERVICES does have a positive and significant effect. Using the coefficient from model 2, compared to those who never attend religious services, individuals who attend at least weekly are expected to increase their support for foreign aid by .21, which across the dependent variable’s four response categories is approximately 1⁄4 of a standard deviation.<sup>8</sup> Variables to assess an individual’s attention outside their own country find mixed support in Table 2. Individuals who respond that they are a MEMBER OF THE WORLD are significantly more likely to support foreign aid than those who state that they are a member of a town, region, or country. INTEREST IN POLITICS is coded in four categories from the question, “How interested would you say you are in politics?” and has the largest effect size among this set of variables. If an individual were to increase their interest in politics from the lowest level (not at all interested) to the highest level (very interested) their support for foreign aid would increase by .36, or approximately 1⁄2 a

> 7 For Gallup, an ICC approximation for binomial models is used (Snijders and Bosker 1999:224). 8 Auxiliary models revealed no differences across denominations in support for foreign aid.

13
|**Table 3: Estimated Class Member**|**ship Pro**<br>π�c|**babilities**<br>s.e.|
|---|---|---|
|Relations with Suppliers|||
|Pure bilateralism|0.657|0.024|
|Bilateralism with private support|0.166|0.022|
|Bilateralism with legal support|0.160|0.017|
|Strong comprehensive governance|0.017|0.004|
|Relations with Customers|||
|Pure bilateralism|0.565|0.032|
|Bilateralism with private support|0.242|0.000|
|Bilateralism with weak support|0.145|0.025|
|Weak comprehensivegovernance|0.050|0.008|

**Table 4: Tests of the Association of Regions with the Use of Governance Structures**

||Association between<br>region and supplier<br>governance structures|Association between<br>region and customer<br>governance structures|
|---|---|---|
|Sub-regions of:|p-values f|or Wald tests|
|Argentina|0.000***|0.040**|
|Bolivia|0.390|0.140|
|Ecuador|0.000***|0.000***|
|Paraguay|0.000***|0.780|
|Peru|0.000***|0.270|
|Uruguay|0.019**|0.520|

2