8

|**Region**|**Country**|**Source**|**Q1**|**Q2**|**Q3**|**Q4**|**Q5**|**Type**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Mauritania|MICS3|0|2.6|27|62|86|A|
||Mozambique (2003)|DHS|0|0|0|0|9.2|A|
||Namibia (2000)|DHS|0|0|5.8|27|12|C|
||Nigeria|MICS3|0|0|0|0|2.2|A|
||Rwanda (2000)|DHS|0|0|0|0|0.2|A|
||São Tomé and Principe|MICS3|0|4.5|20|37|63|A|
||Somalia|MICS3|0|0|0|0|0.2|A|
||South Africa|Statistics SA|1.4|2.1|3.4|3|3.1|A|
||Togo|MICS3|0|0|0|0|5.9|A|
||Uganda|HH surveys|0|0|0|0|0.6|A|
||Zambia (2001–02)|DHS|0|0|0|0.1|0|A|

_Sources:_ WHO 2011; UNICEF various years for MICS3; World Bank various years for DHS; Bacon, Bhattacharya, and Kojima 2010 for HH (household) surveys; and Statistics South Africa 2008 for Statistics SA. The source for each country is the same as that in Table A1.1 except where the country name is followed by the year of data collection in parentheses.

_Notes:_ Q1 = quintile 1 (bottom, or poorest, quintile), and so on; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; MNA = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; + = no distinction made between natural gas and LPG, and hence the answer may apply to either fuel or both; * = total use across fuels greater than 100 percent, indicating that question asked which fuels were used for cooking. Type A indicates use of LPG increases with quintile level; type B indicates that use of LPG decreases with quintile level; type C indicates that use of LPG first increases and then decreases with quintile level.

Table A1.2 in appendix 1 gives usage rates of solid fuels as the primary cooking source by quintile in those countries for which data are available. Although the percentage of households using solid fuels declines at higher quintile levels in all countries, the usage rate even in the top quintile is high in many countries. In one quarter of the 64 countries in the table, more than half of the households in the top quintile rely on solid fuels as the primary cooking source. These statistics further add support to the view that there may be considerable scope for markedly reducing solid fuel consumption.

The relationship between declining use of solid fuels and increasing use of LPG as incomes increase can be seen by considering the correlation between the difference in the rate of LPG use between bottom and top quintiles and the same difference for solid fuel use. Across the set of 51 countries for which LPG use follows pattern A, the correlation between these two differences is –0.65, indicating a strong and widespread tendency for LPG to replace solid fuel as the primary cooking fuel at higher income levels.

# **4. Statistical analysis of uptake and consumption of LPG**

# **4.1 Study methodology**

For modeling LPG selection and use, household expenditure surveys need to be of sufficiently recent date, include separate questions on expenditure on LPG and on the quantity purchased or used, and contain information that enables calculation of prices of competing fuels (from expenditures and quantities), education levels, and other variables found to be statistically significant in this type of demand equation. The surveys should ideally have been conducted within a reasonably similar time period to provide some inter-country comparability, and at fairly recent dates to provide current insights. Taking these considerations into account, this study