The implication for many remote provinces is that while their sex ratio at birth is relatively low compared with other provinces (Ebenstein & Sharygin 2009), they should anticipate high sex ratios in their marriage markets due to female out-migration and in-migration of single males. In Figure 2, we report the net female migration patterns by province and it is evident that richer provinces with high sex ratios, such as Jiangsu, have been benefiting from importing women from less-wealthy provinces such as Yunnan. With ever fewer restrictions on internal migration, it seems very likely in the coming decades that marriage outcome disparities will become even more pronounced, as the relative scarcity of women allows for increasingly hypergamous pairings.

Given the migration of women for marriage, it follows that the geographic distribution of social assistance and social insurance programs in China is important for gauging the adequacy of policy in dealing with the coming demographic tide. In the next section, we examine these programs and how they relate to China’s ability to care for this emerging pool of unmarried men.

# **3   The Geographic Distribution of Poverty and Programs for Social Assistance and Social Insurance in China**

In this section we present a review of the existing programs for social assistance and insurance, and their adequacy for coping with the anticipated growth in the population of unmarried men.

Poverty in China is heavily concentrated in the rural areas. Different measures of poverty all paint the same picture: while nearly 30 percent of the rural population was poor in 2005, this applied to only 5 percent or less of the urban population (Cai et al 2009: Table 2). The vast majority of the poor in 2003 lived in rural areas, and poverty is most heavily concentrated in the northwestern and southwestern regions (World Bank 2009: Table 4.21). Both rural and urban incomes have continued to grow, but the rural-urban gap has continued to widen (World Bank 2008: 65-66).

Recent efforts on rural social protection in China can be summarized as three major sets of programs. The first set sought to alleviate poverty and encourage growth, with subsidized loans, food-for-work programs, and grants, but careful evaluation suggests these programs have had little impact (World Bank 2009). The second set of programs is social assistance programs, which seek to supplement the incomes of the poor through direct transfers. The _Te Kun_ program provides cash assistance to very poor and incapacitated residents of less-developed areas, at the discretion of the local officials. The _Wu Bao_ program, dating from the 1950s, sought to ensure that no section of the population remained destitute.<sup>11</sup> In 2006, the State Council issued regulations that shift financing responsibility for _wubao_ from village reserves to local fiscal budgets (World Bank 2008:79-80). The _Di Bao_ program, also known as the Minimum Living Standard Scheme, provides subsidies and in-kind transfers to those living below a certain poverty

> 11 The _Wu Bao_ program targeted the “three no’s” population – those with no work capacity, no income, and no source of external support. _Wu Bao_ provided “five guarantees”: food, clothing, housing, medical care, and funeral expenses.

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