conditional on age, outcomes may differ depending on whether a child was already enrolled when s/he become orphaned. Bhargava (2005) analyzes a sample of orphans and finds a positive relationship between enrollment prior to becoming an orphan and subsequent enrollment rates among orphans. Lastly, since these studies focus on samples of children, their findings may not reflect the consequences in adulthood of the loss of a parent as a child.

This paper contributes to the existing set of studies by presenting unique evidence of the extent to which orphanhood matters in the long-run for health and education outcomes.<sup>6</sup> The data are from a region of Northwestern Tanzania deeply affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. We use a sample of nonorphaned children aged 6-15 surveyed in 1991-94, who were traced and re-interviewed as adults in 2004.<sup>7</sup> A large proportion, 19 percent, lost one or both parents before the age of 15 in this period, allowing us to identify the permanent impact of orphanhood shocks. In the analysis, we can control for a wide range of child, parental, and household characteristics before the loss of the parent, as well as community fixed effects.

# **3. Data**

The Kagera Region of Tanzania is located on the western shore of Lake Victoria, bordering Uganda to the north and Rwanda and Burundi to the west. The population (1.3 million in 1988, about 2 million in 2004) is overwhelmingly rural and primarily engaged in producing bananas and coffee in the northern districts and rain-fed annual crops (maize, sorghum, cotton) in the southern districts. The Kagera region is particularly insightful when studying the impact of HIV/AIDS. The first three cases of the disease were detected at Ndolage Hospital in 1983.<sup>8</sup> Being one of the first regions in Africa to have been hit by the epidemic, it has a longer history of HIV/AIDS and therefore is one of the first places where one can attempt to analyze the intergenerational impact of the disease. Furthermore, Kagera had intensive socioeconomic data collection efforts early on in the epidemic, providing the necessary baseline data to perform such studies. In particular, this study uses baseline data from the Kagera Health and Development Survey (KHDS), a longitudinal socioeconomic survey conducted from September 1991 to

> 6 This work also informs intergenerational models of the macroeconomic impact of AIDS which take into account the impact on human capital formation and its transmission between generations. Both Bell et al _._ (2006) and Corrigan et al _._ (2005) make assumptions about the magnitude of the impact of the death of a parent without reference to any empirical studies of this link.

> 7 In Beegle et al. (2006), some basic analysis is presented on the impact of orphanhood on children in the sample. In that paper, the focus is also on a sample of children aged below 6 years of age in 1991-94. As these children have not yet reached adulthood by 2004, it is not possible to study the permanent impact of orphanhood, hence the focus on the older sample in this paper.

> 8 Killewo et al. (1990), Killewo et al. (1993) and Kwesigabo et al. (2004) provide epidemiological data on HIV/AIDS prevalence and incidence in the region.

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