managed by village committees had a much higher likelihood of failure than those managed by private operators or water authority. Factors that cannot be modified such as hydrogeological factors play a major role in determining water points failure during the first year after installation. However, management type as well as the type of pump and technology matter considerably more in the short and medium term. These findings highlight the importance of utilizing information on the hydrological characteristics in the design, construction and maintenance of water points. On the other hand, the technology of water points is a more important factor in explaining failure over time, controlling for other factors.

# **2. Water in the Tanzania Context**

Tanzania is the fourth most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa with more than 55.6 million people<sup>2</sup> . According to UN Water (2013), Tanzania is ‘economically water scarce’ and in 2012, its annual renewable water resource was estimated to be around 89km<sup>3</sup> , about 2000m<sup>3</sup> of per capita availability. This reportedly fell to 1,952m<sup>3</sup> in 2014, and is projected to decrease to 873m<sup>3</sup> by 2035. In addition to its rapidly expanding population, there are also other significant pressures on Tanzania’s water resources stemming mostly from its economic activities (Miller and Doyle, 2014; Lein, 2004). As in most other countries, agricultural sector for example, by far consumes a large portion of its withdrawn water (roughly 90 percent of total water withdrawals (UN-Water, 2013)<sup>3</sup> .

Despite its economic progress over the years, its water infrastructure has failed to keep pace with population increase. As a result, it is unable to provide adequate service coverage to its population<sup>4</sup> . This is reflected in the mere 2 percentage points increase in the improved water coverage between 1990 and 2015. In fact, in urban areas, due to population growth and migration, improved water coverage actually fell from 92 percent in 1990 to 77 percent by 2015 (JMP, 2015). In rural areas on the other hand, improved water coverage is estimated to be at 45 percent in 2015 (JMP, 2015).

To address the shortfalls in water supply infrastructure and to improve water resource management throughout the country, in the wake of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) the Tanzania government developed the Water Sector Development Program (WSDP) which is set to run

> 2 Data are from World Development Indicators (database). 2016. World Bank, Washington, DC. <u>http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx</u> 3 Other than that, the country’s climate and hence rainfall pattern also plays a significant role in influencing the supply of water resources. The country experiences a monsoon-type climate with annual rainfall ranging from a high of >1000mm in the coastal and highland areas to a low of around 600mm in the dryer central and northern areas. In the latter, the dry season can last up to 7 months, and rivers tend to run dry (Basalirwa et al., 1999). The El Niño/La Niña South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can also result in substantial impacts on intra-seasonal rainfall variability and inter-annual rainfall variability is a key challenge resulting in droughts and floods (White and Tourre, 2007; Nicholson & Kim, 1997). Projections of Tanzania’s future rainfall patterns based on climate change vary widely, which results in a challenging environment for planning and investment (Basalirwa et al., 1999). There is a general consensus that total rainfall is set to increase in parts of the country (Cioffi et al., 2016), although the already dry central area is potentially likely to experience a decrease in annual precipitation levels. (Cioffi et al., 2016) 4 Reported in UNPD, 2014 from JMP 2015

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