rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
evidenced by their participation in EGPP) but the only difference between the two groups is that during 2012 each received EGPP assistance in different lean seasons. We are also able to identify households who participated in both November 2010 and March 2012 (second set of control households, or C2) while another group participated in November 2010, March 2012 and November 2012 (second set of treatment households, or T2).

**Table 2. Timing of participation in EGPP across the seasons**

||**Baseline**||**Endline**|
|---|---|---|---|
|Total EGPP households|1594||563|
|EGPP households who participated in November 2010 and 2012 lean<br>seasons only (T1)||119||
|EGPP households who participated in November 2010 and in March 2012<br>lean seasons only (C1)||106||
|EGPP households who participated in November 2010, March 2012 and<br>November 2012 lean seasons (T2)||247||
|EGPP households who participated in November 2010 and March 2012<br>lean seasons only (C2)||106||
|Total non-EGPP households|1601||2553|

# **4.2 Descriptive statistics**

To conduct our analysis, we compare socio-economic and demographic characteristics of three sets of sampled households (see Tables 1A and 1B). Table 1A compares the beneficiaries with eligible nonbeneficiaries in the baseline survey. These households constitute the sample for identifying the determinants of participation in EGPP and the role of access to local politicians on participation. Table 1B contains the second and third set of comparisons between the two sets of Treatment and Control households for analyzing the impact of EGPP participation on household consumption expenditure based on varying timing of participation across the different lean seasons.

16
# **5.2.2. Public Healthcare Benefits**

The distribution of public health resources in Zambia is not pro-poor. Reviewing the results from method 1 (see Figure 14a), beneficiaries in the poorest quintile received about a third less in total public healthcare spending than their wealthier counterparts. This cannot be explained by a significantly lower incidence of illness among the poor, as they consulted for health services at roughly the same rate as other consumption groups (see Figure 4). Especially disproportionate is the share of benefits accruing to the richest quintile, which represents only 15 percent of total beneficiaries but captures a third more in total benefits than the poorest quintile (even after out-of-pocket expenses are considered). In unitary terms, (see Figure 14b), the situation is even less pro-poor: net unitary benefits are regressive, that is, they increase along with the consumption level of beneficiaries. This is a result of public transfers not being targeted to the poor in any particular way. Although out-of-pocket contributions are progressive they are not significant even for the richest quintiles. And among the poorest quintiles out-of-pocket contributions are nearly flat, since a substantial proportion of beneficiaries do not pay for pay for care either in health posts or in hospitals (see Figure 7, above). Finally, the share of beneficiaries among the richest quintile that use tier 2 or tier 3 hospitals (rather than tier 1 clinics) is twice that of the poorest quintile, which further contributes to the pro-rich nature of the healthcare system.

Figures 14a and 14b: Gross and Unitary Benefits of Public Health Care, Method 1 <!-- Start of picture text --> Gross (a)<br>30<br>26<br>24<br>25 22 23<br>20<br>15<br>15<br>10<br>5<br>15 22 26 23 20<br>-<br>(5)<br>Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5<br>(Poorest 20%) (Richest 20%)<br>Private (negative) Public Net<br>KMZ billions<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Unitary (b)<br>160 143<br>140<br>120 110 110<br>95<br>100<br>79<br>80<br>60<br>40<br>20 78 94 108 104 127<br>-<br>(20)<br>(40)<br>Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5<br>(Poorest 20%) (Richest 20%)<br>Private (negative) Public Net<br>KMZ thousands<br><!-- End of picture text --> Unlike education, healthcare results are sensitive to the assumptions made on the periodicity of healthrelated episodes. Interestingly, the results of the second method—which annualizes the information 31
**Figure 6: Comparing actual S&P ratings established in 2006 with predicted ratings**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Numeric rating<br>Actual Predicted<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ S&P and authors’ calculations. A higher number indicates higher risk and lower letter rating. See table 2 for conversion from letter to numeric scale.

Figure 6 compares the ratings established in 2006 by Standard and Poor’s with the predicted ratings using explanatory variables for 2005. The predicted ratings for 2006 are within one to two notches of the actual rating for most of the countries that have a rating. The small variation around actual ratings can be attributed to two factors. First, several of these developing countries have not been rated for some time and were therefore not part of the regression sample (the latest available rating for these was established before 2003). Second, the model captures economic and governance variables and the _average_ relationship of these variables with the sovereign rating. There are events that the explanatory variables in the model may not adequately capture, a military coup and nationalization of some crucial export sector such as oil, for example. Based on these within-sample forecasts, we conclude that the benchmark prediction model (Specification 2) is reasonably good at predicting the sovereign rating for most developing countries.

# Model validation using cross comparison between agency ratings

To validate our models, we also exploit the fact that several countries are rated by one of the agencies but not by the others. In such cases, we can compare the predicted rating from one of the rating models with the actual rating by another agency. For example, Lesotho is rated BB- by Fitch, but it is not rated by S&P and Moody’s. The predicted rating for Lesotho, using the model estimated for S&P ratings, is also found to be BB-. Similarly, Uganda is rated B by Fitch, within one notch of the predicted rating of B- using the S&P model. Figure 7 compares sovereign ratings established by Fitch in 2005-06 with the predicted rating from Moody’s and S&P for countries that were not rated by one or the other agency by end-2006. The average predicted rating from the 18
Policy Research Working Paper 5995

# **Abstract**

This paper analyzes the subjective impact of the global economic crisis on households in Europe and Central Asia and relates subjective impacts to consumption, actual shocks, and coping strategies, using the 2010 Life in Transition Survey. Two-thirds of respondents in Europe and Central Asia report their household was subjectively affected, primarily through the labor market. The findings underscore the limitations of crosscountry comparisons of subjective perceptions, due to reporting biases. Within countries, richer households felt a decline in their relative income position, consistent with evidence from household budget surveys that the crisis reduced the consumption of the middle and upper classes. But the analysis also finds that poorer households report being (subjectively) affected by the crisis more. Differences in the feasibility of coping strategies may help explain variations in subjective perceptions: the poorest were forced to reduce their staple food consumption and health spending, and tended to depend on public safety nets. Richer households had more options to cope, pursuing so-called “active strategies” (such as increasing their labor supply), borrowing, and cutting spending on non-essentials. Transition countries differed significantly from western European comparator countries in that public safety nets had lower coverage, private safety nets and informal insurance mechanisms could not meet the shortfall in income, and a large proportion of their populations reduced the consumption of basic necessities. The paper finds subjective perceptions of the impact of the crisis to be relevant to socio-political outcomes: the harder the impact, the lower the life satisfaction level and the more negative the assessment of government performance.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank. org. The author may be contacted at mfdiagne@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
# **Appendix 4. Student Perception: Captivate Index**

Throughout the student questionnaire we asked students a series of questions about specific teachers and their practices in order to construct an index that aims to measure if teaching practices inspire curiosity and interest and whether teachers are able to hold the student’s attention in class and provide the basis for continuing interest. The questions were based on the Student Tripod Survey, a pre-specified well-known questionnaire validated by the Measures of Effective Teaching (MET) project sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.<sup>26</sup> Column (1) of Table A4.1 lists the questions used to build this index, which we named Captivate Index. These questions were randomly mixed in the student survey instrument. Students gave categorical answers of the type “strongly agree”, “agree”, “disagree” and “strongly disagree”. We aggregated these answers into an index using a maximum likelihood principal components estimator. According to our estimation, only one factor is retained because it has an Eigenvalue over one. Specifically, the Eigenvalue is 2.327 and the Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficient for our sample is 0.759. Column (2) shows the loading associated with each variable.

After the prediction was computed to produce the index, we standardized it using the mean and standard deviation of the Control Group. The index ranges between -6 to 2, where -6 indicates that the student strongly disagrees in all the questions included in the index. This means that, for that student, teacher practices do not inspire curiosity and interest or fails to keep his attention in class. In contrast 2 indicates that the student strongly agrees in all the questions that make up the index suggesting that, for that student, teacher practices do inspire curiosity and interest or are successful in keeping his full attention in class.

> 26 Tripod survey is the US’s leading provider of classroom-level survey assessments for K-12 education. Tripod surveys are in their 18th generation, refined over more than a decade of field experience and in response to valuable feedback from educators.  For further information see <u>http://tripoded.com.</u>

13
6 and clothing products when exports from developing countries face discrimin-itory trade barriers under the Multifibre Arrangement. Second, international transport costs could also be a factor. If freight costs are particularly high for an industry, this may have a locational influence that would override the effects of labor intensity.6 Third, there are certain products that must normally be located close to centers of raw material production or in areas where relatively cheap energy sources exist (aluminum smelting is an example). For products where these considerations are important, labor intensity may not be the major factor determining the location of production. Fourth, government policies in the exporting countries themselves can have a major influence on revealed comparative advantage. Such would be the case if specific exports were subsidized, if trade barriers (i.e., effective protection) produced major distortions in production incentives, or if other government policies had a substantial anti-export bias. Finally, some labor intensive processes require high skill labor inputs (jewel cutting, lens grinding, fabrication of some high tech instruments, etc.) or special management skills that are in short supply in developing countries.

# III. Industry Analysis of RCAs and Heckscher-Ohlin Indices

For a test of the relation between Balassa's RCA index and the National Bureau's index of labor intensity, both measures were computed for 6 Transport costs can have two different types of locational effects depending on the nature of the product(s) in question. For items that undergo considerable reduction in weight or bulk with fabrication (which should reduce nominal freight charges) there would be an incentive to locate manufacturing activity close to the raw material inputs. Second, some products (like beverages which require the mixture of syrups with water) greatly expand their bulk and freight costs upon processing. Transport costs for such items could dictate that their production be located close to centers of consumption, a factor that would offset the influence of factor proportions.
# **5. Improving the Rural Investment Climate for Businesses**

Improving the RIC for businesses appears to be a necessary condition for incentivizing activities that raise rural incomes. The proliferation of such activities lays the foundation for improved livelihoods, and promises to provide an expanded resource base from which community health care, education, transportation, and infrastructure can draw.

By combining major constraints perceived by rural entrepreneurs, assessed by RIC indicators, and econometric modeling results, the following areas are identified as critical RIC components for improvement: market demand, access to markets, access to finance, business/agriculture services, management, and technology. Labor and telecommunication could be also added to the list. Improving these areas would lessen the obstacles to starting a business and the reasons for closing it and it would further increase income generation activities. For women entrepreneurs, a security issue has to be resolved. These income-generation activities could also boost the population of the rural communities through increased economic activities.

# **5.1 Increase Market Demand**

It is vital to increase market demand in rural areas if rural businesses are to grow. If market demand stays the same while income generation activities increase or existing businesses expand, profitability may decrease due to the limited number of customers. If there are too many competitors relative to the existing demand, then prices may come down due to excess supplies and enterprises may not be profitable. If there are too few competitors, market demand may exceed the supply, giving entrepreneurs a chance to expand their businesses to meet the excess demand. Major obstacles perceived by rural entrepreneurs for weak demand or too many competitors are 43 percent by farm entrepreneurs and 37 percent by nonfarm entrepreneurs according to the Yemen RIC survey.

There are a number of ways to enable entrepreneurs to better access demand and reduce the frictions that impair their ability to supply products targeted on market opportunities. These include:(i) developing or improving marketplaces with required amenities; (ii) improving access roads and transportation for customers to come to market; (iii) applying marketing knowledge to identify new customers; and (iv) providing market information to customers. Marketplaces exist in all of the places in which community survey data were gathered. These marketplaces may need to be improved with required amenities such as those which were proposed in the Ethiopia RICA proposal (World Bank 2009b). Improving access roads and transportation would provide 18
and implications of foreign bank participation. Section 4 examines the relationship between crises and foreign bank participation in developing countries and Section 5 concludes.

# **2. Trends in foreign bank participation**

Statistics on the average share of banking assets held by foreign banks in developing countries over the last decade disguise important regional differences, as well as differences within each region. This section describes levels and trends in foreign bank participation across regions and also discusses the degree to which recent regional changes in foreign bank participation are common to most countries in the region or are driven by only a few exceptions.

As shown in Figure 1, between 1995 and 2002 foreign bank participation increased primarily in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa.<sup>3</sup> By 2002, close to 40 percent of assets in all three regions were in the hands of foreign banks. On the other hand, in Asia and in the Middle East and Northern Africa, foreign bank participation remained low – close to 10 percent of banking sector assets – and stagnant throughout the period.

Even among the three regions where the share of assets held by foreign banks has been rising there are some differences both in the levels of foreign bank presence and in the speed with which it has increased in recent years. For example, whereas the average level of foreign bank participation during 1995-2002 was highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, both the absolute and relative increases in the share of assets held by foreign banks have been most significant in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and in Latin America. The share of assets held by foreign banks in Sub-Saharan Africa rose by 9 percentage points from 30 percent in 1995 to 39 percent in 2002. This represents a 1.3 times increase. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia the share of assets held by foreign banks roughly tripled from almost 13 percent in 1995 to 39 percent in 2002. In Latin America, foreign bank participation nearly doubled, going from 19 percent to 37 percent over this period.

While in Africa, many of the foreign banks have been operating since colonial times, entry in Eastern Europe and Latin America has been more recent. Most of the entry of foreign banks in Eastern Europe and Central Asia has resulted from the privatization of state-owned

> 3 Because here we compare averages across regions, to avoid that statistics are affected by changes in the sample composition over time, we focus only on countries in each region for which we have data on foreign bank participation for every year between 1995 and 2002. This means that we calculate regional averages over a sample of 72 countries instead of 104, which is the total number of developing countries for which we have data from Micco _et al._ (2006).

3
<!-- Start of picture text --> 44<br>Deposits with and without options<br>8<br>7-<br>6 -<br>5-<br>4-<br>3<br>2-<br>86 87 88 89 90 9 1<br>Year<br>-<br>Fund Only Fund and Options<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Figure 7: Deposits with and without Options**
23 _Mozambique,_ during the execution of the _Capady Building and Strengthening of Legal Insuons Projea (Cikt No. 2437-MOZ),_ Moazmbican judges and lawyers prared their own "needs list" and the project was built and implenented on the basis of domestically identified priorities. Foreign consultants provided only guidance and assistance to the local team.

While th contribution ofthe loca legal community in the legal reform process is essential, legal technical asistnce shod aLso aim, where possible, at achieving broad paipation not only from the goverment but also from other groups and individuals inthe concerned commuty, such as economists, business people, social scientists or edutrs. To have an impact on the society at large, legal reform cannot be achieved exclusively by the legal profession; it should involve a broader audience. For example, in _Argentina,_ a sector work on the judciary involve **s** ociologiss and education specialists. In _Vene a,_ during the preat of the _Juddacy I*a1Wucr Project,_ the resuts of surveys of prominent business people were aken into account in the deftition of the pniority areas of reform. Such input assists the adjustment of legal assin to local needs and peuliaritie and it helps the assistce tD be acceptd and have a lasting impact on he society. Also, assistance fiom a broad range of pewple in the lga community is in king with the Bmk's emphasis on participatory development On a related point, many counhies in Afiica, and most in Ladn America, have well estabhished local bars with lwyers trained in and with a broad exeience in legl fiwmeworks suportve of a mrket economy. The Bank has ocsonally hired local lawyers as consltants for legal technic assisce Lasks, for eample in studies involving the judicary in _PenL_ This approach, however, can be followed in but a few of the former sociaist counties in Europe, Asia or Afica. There, lawyers were trained **in** law based on Maist piniples that run directly contrry to the princples underlying narket economies. Terefor, for the foreseeble fitue, legl technical assistance teams may have to rely on foreign consltants or local lawyers tained in foreign legal systems for advice on new market-based legal concepts, whie coordinating these concepts with loca **l** awyers' knowledge of local legal traditions and institutions.

Les **learned: Broad paili-ipatlon of** members of **local lgal ckf mznAisl** asist in the qualt, acceptaf, and long-tru susainbiltyof legal refonus.
Figure 5: Distribution of healthcare provider consulted across consumption levels <!-- Start of picture text --> 100%<br>90%<br>28% 28% 27% 28% 27%<br>80%<br>70% 8% 10% 10% 9% 16% Did not consult<br>60%<br>15%<br>50% 21% 24% 23% Private institution<br>27%<br>40%<br>Hospital (govt.)<br>30%<br>49%<br>20% 42% 40% 40% Clinic or health post<br>30% (govt.)<br>10%<br>0%<br>Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5<br>(Poorest (Richest<br>20%) 20%)<br>consulted<br>Distribution of ill or injured by health institution<br><!-- End of picture text --> Looking at the socioeconomic distribution of patients attending _public_ healthcare institutions, Figure 6 displays a non-linear pattern, with increasing shares of patients across the intermediate quintiles (2 to 4). Patients from the richest quintile are the least likely to use public providers, as one would expect. What is somewhat more surprising is that when visiting public facilities they are equally likely to go to public clinics and health posts (tier 1 institutions) as to public hospitals (tiers 2 and 3): other socioeconomic groups rely more on primary services and are twice or even three times more likely to attend a clinic or health post than a hospital. This could reflect wider opportunities for choice among richer households, that is, a greater capacity to select services according to the specific needs of their health condition. Also, it might suggest that rich households assess a better quality of clinics that is sufficient high to meet their demand for services. However, there is no evidence by which to evaluate any quality consideration.

Figure 6: Distribution of patients by type of healthcare provider and levels of consumption <!-- Start of picture text --> 25% 25%<br>22% 22%<br>20%<br>20% 20%<br>18% 7% 9%<br>17%<br>8%<br>4%<br>15% 15%<br>7%<br>10% 10%<br>14% 15% 14% 13%<br>5% 5%<br>8%<br>0% 0%<br>Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5<br>(Poorest 20%) (Richest 20%)<br>Clinic or Post Hospital Ill or injured<br>Distribution of ill/injured facility (Clinic, post, hospital)<br>Distribution t of public institutions' visitors by type of<br><!-- End of picture text --> 25