rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
# **5. Conclusions**

Given that it is rare to evaluate development projects by repeated observation over a long period, this case study has provided an opportunity to study a less costly method, based on respondent recall using subjective-qualitative questions. Success for this method would open up many low-cost opportunities for learning about development effectiveness.

Neither the ―expensive‖ nor ―shoestring‖ double-difference estimates suggest that the poor-area development program studied here had a significant long-term impact on living standards in poor areas of rural China. But their agreement is not because the retrospective qualitative assessments provided good proxies for the changes in consumption derived from high-quality contemporaneous surveys. Indeed, the analysis suggests that long-term recall of the household’s overall standard of living contains only a weak and biased signal of changes in consumption. Controlling for the actual change in consumption, the recalled improvement in living standards tends to be higher for initially richer households. There are clear signs of telescoping in the recall responses, but the bulk of the benefits occurred in the earlier half of the recall period, which is given too little weight by respondents in treatment villages. Recall is clearly also affected by many idiosyncratic factors not accountable to consumption.

Furthermore, there is an indication that the shoestring method can be deceptive. By not being able to effectively address the problem of selection bias based on the unobserved factors that determined which villages got selected for the program, the recall method becomes vulnerable to spurious impact signals. In this particular case, the recall method suggests positive impacts after controlling for observed differences between treatment and comparison villages at the baseline. The paper has argued that a plausible interpretation of this finding is that the selection bias based on observables is working in the opposite direction to that based on unobserved factors. Thus, only reducing the former bias (by balancing the distribution of observables between treated and comparison units) makes matters worse.

So (alas) this case study does not offer much encouragement on the reliability of this ―shoestring approach.‖ Of course, this is just one study, and the only one to date in the context of policy or program impact evaluation. Further tests are needed. Thankfully, the marginal cost of doing such tests in the context of a full-scale evaluation is not high.

16
rigidity is more common in non-euro area economies, whereas indexation mechanisms are more widely used in the euro-area countries included in our sample. Our regression results indicate that collective bargaining coverage is positively related with real wage rigidity, while the estimated relationship with nominal wage rigidity is insignificant. A possible interpretation of this finding is that unions have the capacity to provide their members with information about inflation expectations and explain the importance of maintaining the real income level to workers (Dickens et al., 2007). Thus, union coverage reduces the prevalence of money illusion. DNWR instead is higher in countries where firing is costly due to employment protection legislation provisions and within firms with a higher share of workers holding open-ended contracts. This is consistent with Holden (2002), who shows that when renegotiation of contracts requires mutual consent, employment protection provisions increase the bargaining power of insiders, who have then a strategic advantage in imposing nominal wage increases even when firms want to cut wages.

Our regression results also show that wages of high-skilled white-collar workers are more rigid than those of blue-collar and low-skilled white-collar workers. This holds for both downward nominal and real rigidity and is in line with the predictions of standard labour market theories. Firms may be reluctant to cut wages of workers whose effort is less easily monitored or those with high replacement costs to avoid them reducing their effort or leaving the firm. These characteristics are typical for high-skilled white-collar workers. Our finding of higher real and nominal wage rigidity for this occupational group is consistent with Campbell’s (1997) results. Using macroeconomic data for the US, he finds that wages of more skilled workers, and in particular white-collar workers, are less responsive to fluctuations in unemployment. It is also consistent with the findings by Franz and Pfeiffer (2006), who examine the determinants of wage rigidity in Germany. The implications of other firm characteristics, including size and tenure structure, and the importance of product market competition, are also discussed in the text.

The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 describes the main characteristics of the survey and definitions of wage rigidities. Section 3 presents some theoretical predictions regarding the impact of firm characteristics and institutions on rigidity, and discusses previous findings in the empirical literature. Section 4 concentrates on the survey evidence regarding wage freezes and indexation practices. Section 5 examines how nominal and real wage rigidities are related to various firm-level characteristics and institutional measures. Section 6 concludes and draws policy implications.

6
**<u>Table 6: Estimated effects of type of land rights on agricultural investment across surveys</u>**

||<br>**Orga**<br>|<br>**nic manure a**<br>|<br>**pplied**<br>|<br>**C**<br>|**ash crop plan**<br>|**ted**<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**IHPS**|**IHS4**|**IHS4 rest.**|**IHPS**|**IHS4**|**IHS4 rest.**|
|Has right to bequeath land (_β_11)|0.105*|0.059*|0.048|0.054|-0.034|-0.044|
||[0.068]|[0.051]|[0.258]|[0.178]|[0.237]|[0.299]|
|Has right to sell land (_β_12)|0.050|-0.013|-0.011|-0.032|0.008|0.002|
||[0.164]|[0.602]|[0.723]|[0.697]|[0.725]|[0.934]|
|Observations|2,011|11,472|9,668|2,011|11,472|9,668|
|R-squared|0.777|0.817|0.834|0.578|0.618|0.634|
|Mean of dependent variable|0.233|0.214|0.216|0.070|0.055|0.055|
|Sd. of dependent variables:|(0.416)|(0.404)|(0.406)|(0.238)|(0.217)|(0.216)|
|Mean of right to bequeath land|0.724|0.751|0.727|0.724|0.751|0.727|
|Sd. of right to bequeath land|(0.447)|(0.433)|(0.445)|(0.447)|(0.433)|(0.445)|
|Mean of right to sell land|0.656|0.643|0.614|0.656|0.643|0.614|
|Sd. of right to sell land|(0.475)|(0.479)|(0.487)|(0.475)|(0.479)|(0.487)|

_Notes_ : Regressions are for owned parcels. Household fixed effects, parcel attributes including size, soil type (sandy, between sandy and clay, clay), slope (flat, slight slope, moderate slope, hilly), and whether land is in swamp/wetland are controlled for throughout. Robust standard errors are clustered by district. Figures in square brackets are p-values from wild cluster bootstrap (Roodman, 2018) with Rademacher weights and 1000 replications. *** significant at 1%; significant at 5%; * significant at 10%.

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during their first few weeks of IUD use, and the acceptance of IUDs rose. Subsequently, direction of the clinic services was taken over by a trained midwife, who, because of personal dislike of IUDs, removed more devices than she inserted, and the number of acceptors dwindled. After her departure, the number of IUD acceptors rose again, as the supportive counselling of the other team members increased. In many parts of Africa there are service staff who are not well informed about contraceptives and who pass on their prejudices and ignorance to clients. It should be part of staff training to show that this is unethical.

The attitude of service staff is only one of the determinants of the acceptability of contraceptive methods. Different methods vary in the ethical problems they raise.

**Oral contraceptives:** It has been suggested that, if drug regulatory systems had been as demanding 20 years ago as they are today, oral contraceptives might never have been made widely available. Some 60 million women throughout the world now rely on them. An ethical difficulty arises when studies carried out in developed countries yield findings which may or may not be relevant for developing countries. A recent example would be the studies carried out in the United Kingdom suggested a link between long-term use of oral contraceptives and an increased risk of cervical cancer. Is it ethical to give African women oral contraceptives if they have no access to cervical cytology services? However, this question has, in turn, raised doubts about the extent to which epidemiological data from developed countries may be valid for developing countries. One must try to balance the paucity of epidemiological data from developing countries against the differences in lifestyle, nutritional status, and other variables between women of developed and those of developing countries, and take into account the wide differential in the risks of pregnancy and childbirth in different parts of the world, which radically affects the risk/benefit ratio of contraceptives.

It is crucial to find ways of solving the ethical problem posed by the tying of the use of oral contraceptives to doctors' prescriptions. Apart from the low doctor:patient ratios, which lead to discriminatory coverage of availability of oral contraceptives, the system helps to reinforce the public's belief that contraceptive drugs are dangerous. The risks of oral contraceptives are fairly well known. Methods of distribution that do not depend on doctors have been successfully tested with adequate check-:ists, and where good back-up and referral systems have been established and maintained. Not to develop such systems is to deny millions of women the health benefits of family planning, and can, therefore, be said to be a serious ethical matter.

**Barrier methods:** Barrier methods of contraception-condoms, Jiaare phragms, cervical caps and spermicide, but especially condoms enjoying a resurgence of interest, primarily because of the protection they offer against sexually transmitted diseases. Barrier methods are 'safe' in that they have fewer side-effects, but are less effective than other
|Country|Intervention name|World Bank income group at time of<br>intervention<br>Sco<br>Geographic<br>extent|pe<br>Donor<br>(co-)<br>financing<br> <br> <br>Rural<br>Urban<br>Modern Family|Impact estimate available<br>and service incentivized<br>Not available or not incentivized<br>Available and directly incentivized<br>Available and indirectly incentivized<br> <br>Planning<br>4+ ANC checks<br>Maternal tetanus<br>vaccination<br>Facility delivery<br>1+ PNC checks<br>Full child vaccination<br>Supply side<br>Demand side<br>Cntrl r|Financial incentive<br>oo goup<br>income equalization<br>Incentive formula|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Philippines|Pantawid Pamilya|Lower-<br>middle<br>376,000<br>households<br>in study<br>period,<br>scaled-up to<br>roughly 3<br>million in<br>2012|Yes No World Bank|No Yes|No Regional and household poverty targeting. Health conditions include antenatal and postnatal care, skilled birth<br>attendance, and growth monitoring. Facility delivery indirectly incentivized through skilled delivery condition. Health<br>component is ~US$10.80 per household per month, equivalent to about 8% of household income.|
|Turkey|Social Risk Mitigation Project|Upper-<br>middle<br>Nationwide<br>scheme, 6%<br>poorest<br>households|Yes Yes No|No Yes|No Household poverty targeting. Health conditions include namely antenatal and postnatal care, facility delivery and<br>regular growth check attendance. Indirect incentivization of childhood vaccination through conditioning on growth<br>check visits during which vaccines administered. Bimonthly payments of US$23 per pregnant women and child and<br>US$74 for facilitydelivery.|
|Zimbabwe|Manicaland HIV/STD Project|Low 1 of 10<br>provinces,<br>1,319<br>households|Yes No Wellcome<br>Trust, World<br>Bank,<br>UNICEF|No Yes|No Poor and vulnerable households targeted. Conditions on use of maternal and child health services (growth monitoring<br>and up-to-date vaccinations) and school enrollment. Bimonthly transfers of US$18 per household plus $4 per child.|

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3.23 This imprecision can significantly reduce mapping costs. Accuracy is expensive. Where maps are based on aerial photographs, for example, the costs of obtaining the photography and supplementary field data are relatively low; the point of cost-inflection is orthogonal ra_-¢Lfication.A' While adding to costs, such refinements have few benefits from a fiscal standpoint.

3.24 Tax reform projects should also avoid attempts to link up with other geographical information gathering efforts. While a major tax mapping project would seem to be an opportunity to address disputed claims to property ownership, the benefits of linking legal and fiscal cadastre are overstated. Adding a legal component to a tax mapping exercise is expensive. Because the standards required for titling are high, the marginal cost of adding a legal component to a fiscal cadastre is significant. More importantly, the pace of tax mapping is different from that of title adjudication. To impose a property tax, comprehensive coverage is required. As no benefits can be reaped until the process is completed, speed is important. In the adjudication and demarcation of title, by contrast, each owner derives the benefit of clear title as he receives it. The process of legal titling can therefore justifiably proceed at a slow pace. Linking the fiscal and legal cadastre, however, condemns the former to the pace of the latter.

# B. Yaluation

# nefining Value

3.25 Use the Definition that ExDloits the Best Market Data. In a completely unconstrained situation, the first valuation issue would be how to denominate value. Property value can be denominated in two ways: either on the basis of the rent a property would be expected to yield (its annual rental value or ARV) or according to its expected sales prica (te.'med capital or market value).

3.26 Both definitions are widely used. The choice of a system is largely a reflection of historical association. 'he United Kingdom and France have traditionally valued property on the basis of rental value; in general, their one-time colonies in Africa and Asia do so. Countries influenced by the United States--the Philippines, Liberia, and most of Latin America--follow the U.S. practice and define value on the basis of capital value. The capital value definition is also used in most of northern Europe--Germany, the Netherlands-and in Japan, Turkey, and Indonesia. (Table 2) 3.27 In part, this is a policy issue, as it influences distribution of the burden of the tax. Although both capital value and rental value reflect the income to be derived from a property, their distributional implications differ. ARV reflects the income from a property _In Its current use._ Capital value reflects the market's assessment of the income to be derived from a property in the future, _Includlng Income generated by more Intensive use of the property._ As a result, the capital value definition will tend to place a higher proportion II/ That is, correcting for distortions caused by the fact that all points on a photo are not at right angles to the lens of the camera.
**_Electricity Sector Reform in Developing Countries, Jamasb, Mota, Newbery, Pollitt_**

|**Study**|**Hypothesis**|**Dependent**<br>**Variable(s)**|**Independent**<br>**Variable(s)**<br>|**Control Variables**|**Notes: # of countries, times**<br>**period, data source**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||||_and for efficiency measures_<br>-wholesale pool (dummy) (RM)<br>_Results: significantly negative for_<br>_prices_<br>-choice threshold (RM)<br>-T price regulation (not used)<br>(RM)|||
|**Hattori and**<br>**Tsutsui**<br>**(2003)**|_H0: Unbundling of_<br>_generation from_<br>_transmission, third party_<br>_access, the existence of a_<br>_wholesale market, and_<br>_privatisation leads to lower_<br>_industrial electricity prices_<br>_and industrial/residential_<br>_price ratios. As the start of_<br>_liberalisation and_<br>_privatisation approaches_<br>_prices decrease._|-industrial end-user price in<br>PPPs (PI)<br>-ratio of industrial to<br>residential prices in PPPs<br>(PI)|-wholesale pool (dummy) (RM)<br>_Results: significantly positive for_<br>_prices_<br>-third party access (dummy)<br>(RM)<br>_Results: significantly negative for_<br>_prices_<br>-private ownership (multi-level<br>indicator) (RM)<br>_Results: significantly negative for_<br>_prices_<br>**-**time to privatisation (years)<br>(RM)<br>_Results: statistically insignificant_|-GDP (US$ PPP) (CL)<br>_Results: statistically_<br>_significantly negative for_<br>_prices_<br>-share of hydro capacity<br>(SE)<br>_Results: statistically_<br>_insignificant_<br>-share of nuclear capacity<br>(SE)<br>_Results: statistically_<br>_insignificant_|Panel dataset of 19 OECD<br>countries for the period 1987-<br>1999 (number of<br>observations: 232).|
|**Wolak (1997)**|_H0: Market structure and_<br>_market rules influence price_<br>_average and price volatility._|-half-hourly or hourly spot<br>prices (PI)|-lagged half-hourly or hourly<br>spot prices (PI)<br>_Results: the cross-country_<br>_analysis suggests that market_<br>_rules and market structure exert_<br>_strong influence on the_<br>_behaviour of prices._||Hourly or half-hourly spot<br>prices of electricity in the<br>England & Wales Pool, Nord<br>Pool, Victoria Power<br>Exchange, New Zealand<br>North Island, New Zealand<br>South Island, from 1990 until<br>1997.|

Notes: RM – reform measures I – (sector-level) institutions PI – performance indicator MS – market structure SE – sector endowments CL – country-level variables 59
Contents

|1.|In<br>tro<br>d<br>u<br>c<br>tio<br>n<br>..........................................<br>1|
|---|---|
|2.|The Quest for the Right Balance ..........................................<br>1|
|3.|Why the Road to Reformn Remains a Field of Dreams in Developing|
||Countries? Theoretical Considerations<br>.6|
|4.|Why the Road to Reform Remains a Field of Dreams? Practical|
||Considerations ..........................................<br>9|
|_5._|Making Dreams Come True: Getting Institutions Right ......................................... 14|
|6.|Decentralization - Fine in Theory But What Is the Practice? ............................... 20|
|7.|Some Lessons for Developing Countries .........................................<br>30|
|Refe|rences .................................................<br>34|
|**Tab**<br>1.|**les**<br>Governance Structure-20th Versus 21 st Century<br>_.5_|
|2.|Public Sector Institutional Environment-Stylized Facts<br>.8|
|3.|Correlation of the Decentralization Index with Governance|
||Quality Indicators .22|
|**Figu**<br>1.|**res**<br>Public Sector Environrment in Developing Countries<br>_.7_|
|**Ann**<br>1.|**exes**<br>A Representative Assignment of Expenditure Responsibilities .39|
|2.|Conceptual basis of tax assignment .40|
|3.|Principles and Better Practices in Grant Design .................................<br>41|
<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 3.2: Age distribution of all migrants - age at time of migration<br>o SE to NE migrants - NE to SE migrants<br>04 -<br>02<br>0 20 40 60 80<br>Age'<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Author's own calculations based on PNAD 1999. Estimates based on Epanechnikov kernel density estimates with a width of approximately 20.

**Table 3.1: Return migrants to Northeast and Southeast**

||**Returnmigrants from**<br>**SoutheasttoNortheast**|**Return**<br>**Northea**|**migrantsfrom**<br>**stto Southeast**|
|---|---|---|---|
||(percent)||(percent)|
|Totalreportedreturn||||
|migration:|25.1||2.6|
|inlast10years:|21.7||3.6|
|in1999:|22.3||8.7|
|in1998:|20.7||2.9|
|in1997:|20.5||2.1|
|in1996:|15.0||2.4|
|in1995:|22.5||1.1|
|in1994:|19.8||6.4|
|in1993:|22.6||1.8|
|in1992:|28.4||5.0|
|in1991:|31.5||6.7|
|in 1990:|24.7||5.1|

_Source:_ Author's own calculations based on PNAD 1999.

_Note:_ Return migrants expressed as percentage share of total migrants to Northeast (column 1) and to Southeast (column 2).

# **Gender**

Males are clearly more likely to move than females (Table 3.3). Around 75 percent of households with a history of migration from the NE to the SE are male headed. Migrants from the SE to the NE are even more likely to be male (averaging about 78 percent male).

9
usage, even though there were other positive effects on health and behavioral outcomes for children and adults. Overall, the literature should thus be read as providing suggestive evidence that processes of residential segregation add to inequalities and exclusion in and around the labor market. But in most cases more rigorous research is needed, to identify the robustness and precise magnitude of these impacts.

## **V. The transitional role of jobs**

The second link under the framework in Figure 1 involves pathways from jobs to social cohesion. Once people are in work, jobs can play an important transformative function for social development outcomes. The next paragraphs discuss these transformative functions, by reviewing evidence on the impact of work-place interactions on ‘bridging’ social relationships. In addition, I examine the association between jobs and subjective wellbeing and the social and policy contexts that influence this link.

# _Labor markets and social interactions_

There is rich anecdotal evidence from the literatures on political partisanship and ethnic conflict that interactions in the work place can bridge social divides. These arguments are typically based on the idea that the atomizing effects of social identities and segregation are less severe in the work place than in the choice of neighborhoods or social associations (Kilroy 2012, Mutz and Mondak 2006: 141). Because people typically have fewer opportunities to choose their co-workers, and because business relations are often entered out of economic necessity, jobs can provide the opportunity to encounter people of very different ethnic and social backgrounds (WDR: 126).

Probably the strongest potential to overcome social barriers in and around jobs arises from the type of social and civic associations highlighted in the literature on social capital (Granovetter 1973, 1974, Woolcock and Narayan 2000). Analysis of a large sample of responses from the World Values Survey data by Wietzke and McLeod (2012) finds that across countries at different income levels those in work and more autonomous jobs generally participate in more associations.<sup>13</sup> The results of this study should only be considered as

> 13 As with SWB the effect of unemployment gradually declines from high to low income countries but it is still borderline significant in the poorest nations. Similar results are reported for job quality and autonomy.

16