# **Data sources**

The primary data set providing the individual- and household-level information necessary to allocate fiscal policy elements is the HIECS 2015.<sup>23</sup> This survey includes modules covering health, education, economic and labor market activity, household consumption expenditure, agricultural production, and rent (or, for owner-occupied housing, imputed rent). HIECS also provides a roster per household that provides individual, demographic, and dwelling characteristics. HIECS 2015 uses an updated frame from the 2006 population census as its sampling frame and is representative at the national level, by urban and rural areas and by governorate. The survey was administered to approximately 24,000 households. For this analysis, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) granted access to a representative 50 percent sample of the survey microdata covering 11,988 households and about 52,254 individuals.

The source for total revenues collected by the government from households––via the personal income tax and GST–– during FY15 is the Ministry of Finance. To impute “effective” or actual prevailing rates (which may differ from statutory rates), we first scale down the expected tax take from HIECS households. Scaling is done so that the ratio of tax revenues in final or audited budget reports to Private Final Household Consumption Expenditure in Egypt National Accounts data are equivalent to the ratio of VAT collections from HIECS households to the value of cumulative HIECS household consumption expenditure.

Program administrative data from the Ministry of Social Solidarity on the Takaful and Karama programs were also used. The data included the total number of beneficiaries and benefits distributed by governorate. The estimated electricity and fuel subsidies received by households were generated directly within the HIECS using reference price and subsidy rate information provided by the Ministry of Petroleum and data from World Bank (2017).

# **Assumptions and allocation overview**

When and where possible, the study allocates fiscal policy elements to individuals or households based on direct observation. For example, when an individual queried in a socioeconomic survey is asked to recall how much she has paid in sales taxes on all her purchases in the past seven days, or is asked to provide receipts detailing sales tax payments, we directly observe the total sales tax collection from her. These sales tax payments recorded by individuals then are assumed to be the same sales tax revenues listed in the executive, administrative, and other budget reporting for the same year.

In the HIECS 2015, however, very few fiscal policy elements could be allocated via direct observation.<sup>24</sup> Instead, we use imputation and simulation (sometimes in combination with direct observation). _Imputation_ is used when a survey unit’s benefit recipient (taxpayer) status must be inferred (rather than directly identified), or the amount received (paid) is retrieved from administrative records or program (tax) rules (rather than directly recorded in the survey), or both. _Simulation_ is available when neither 2015) was not available while the HEICS (2015) survey data did not allow us to identify public contributory pension recipients.

23 The allocations––including the assumptions and choices implicit in them––are described in the following section. 24 Access to publicly delivered health and education services is observed directly, as is the purchase of subsidized fuels and electricity. However, the subsidy received for transactions in these goods must be imputed.

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