public health and government measures to counteract the pandemic have adjusted concurrently. The most consequential public health response has been the rapid production and deployment of several vaccines that have slowed the spread of the pandemic and facilitated the gradual lifting of mobility restrictions. Fourth, the external shocks expected to hit economies, including reductions in remittances, were generally less than initially anticipated (Kpodar et al., 2021; Pauw and Thurlow, 2022; McDermott and Swinnen, 2022). These along with the heterogeneity in the impacts of and responses to the pandemic justify the need to revisit these early projections using new sources of data.

Besides the public health responses, governments’ responses to the pandemic included social protection and stimulus packages to support vulnerable sectors and households. Social protection systems have been reinforced through either increasing the size of transfers or expanding the number of beneficiaries. More than 220 countries and territories have initiated or expanded some form of social protection and safety net systems in response to the pandemic (Gentilini et al., 2020). However, the policy responses among African countries were relatively slow. Furthermore, whether (and how much) such social protection and safety net programs have been effective in mitigating the adverse impacts of the pandemic remains generally unknown. Delivering social protection and safety net transfers during an unfolding pandemic was a daunting task and marred by several challenges. For example, targeting of social protection programs and beneficiaries during a pandemic was difficult, especially in the African context where population registers and administrative data are rarely available. Social protection programs in Africa are characterized by their rural focus and limited size of transfers (e.g., Beegle et al., 2018). Thus, identifying the role of social protection policies and lessons learned in delivering social safety nets in Africa during the pandemic can inform future programing and responses to future crises.

This paper serves two purposes: first we use recent data to estimate and reassess the impact of the pandemic on country-level poverty in Africa for 2020. For this purpose, we combine national accounts data – particularly real per capita GDP growth and High-Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPSs or phone surveys henceforth) for several countries. The use of both macro and micro-level sources of data allows us to uncover potential heterogeneities across countries, geographies, and households. We assemble the World Bank’s country-level pre-pandemic growth projections, national account data on overall per capita GDP growth and sectoral growth for 2020. Whenever possible, we merge these data with the HFPS collected by the World Bank in collaboration with National Statistical Offices (NSOs). Second, we assess and synthesize empirical evidence on the role of social protection systems to mitigate the adverse impact of the pandemic in Africa. For this purpose, we compile recent studies on the potential impact of social protection programs in cushioning against the adverse impacts of the pandemic. We particularly aim to draw important lessons in the delivery, targeting and impact of various social protection programs launched or expanded in Africa in response to the pandemic.

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