rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
kernel and local linear matching estimators, which use multiple nonparticipants to estimate the outcomes of the control group as opposed to pair-wise estimation. This method, used by Heckman et al. (1997) and Heckman et al. (1998), was implemented with longitudinal and crosssectional data from the National Supported Work Demonstration, another labor market program.<sup>7</sup> The results suggest that such estimators are able to replicate experimental results only when the data examined are very similar – from the same source(s), with treatment and control groups from the same geographic labor markets, and incorporating a range of variables that influence both participation and labor market outcomes.<sup>8</sup> McKenzie et al (2006) build on the finding of previous authors: the best non-experimental estimates are obtained when the treatment and control groups are drawn from the same labor markets, data sources used are the same, and groups’ characteristics are similar in that the “likelihood of receiving the treatment is similar in both groups.” They compare experimental and non-experimental methods in analyzing the income gains from migration, using a survey on the quota of Tongans allowed to immigrate to New Zealand each year on the basis of a lottery from an excess number of applicants. They generate experimental estimates of income gain from migration by comparing gains of applicants whose names were not drawn in the lottery with those who immigrated through the lottery, after taking into account those who did not immigrate even after they “won” the lottery. They also survey a non-applicant group and generate non-experimental estimates for comparison with the experimental estimates. Because migrants are more likely to have certain observable _and_ unobservable characteristics (such as ability and drive), the non-experimental methods are shown to overstate income gains from migration by between 9 and 82 percent.

The _ex ante_ labor market models described here suggest the difficulties in predicting the impacts of a program using a model representing standard economic incentives incorporated through wages. In our paper, however, the effects of programs are simulated using a model incorporating _household_ income, where the incentives operate through channels that are quite different.

> 7 NSW was a subsidized work experience program providing recipients with training and assistance in finding regular jobs.

> 8 Summarized from Smith and Todd (2006).

8
# **1. Context**

East Asian countries are undergoing deep structural changes, with resources shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services, from resource-based products to laborintensive low technology products, and -- in some countries -- from the latter to medium/high technology products. Some countries like Malaysia and Thailand are ahead of others in this process, but most of the other countries of the region, including lower income ones like Vietnam, are following close behind. The nature and the skills content of jobs are changing in response to these deep structural shifts. Many jobs are being created in relatively more skilled activities in manufacturing, but also in certain service activities that require low and medium level skills that are nonetheless different from those of the jobs being destroyed. In some rapidly-growing economies, such as China, emerging skill shortages threaten to undermine the competitiveness of export oriented firms. This evolving context raises key issues regarding the links between skills, labor reallocation and productivity growth in East Asian economies, but this type of analysis and research, which is rapidly developing for other regions including the OECD, LAC and ECA, is still fairly scarce in East Asia.

The regional study on skills attempts to close this gap in two ways. First, it wants to document in a systematic and comparable manner the evolution of skill/industry premiums, and of the labor force composition across East Asian economies to identify trends in the demand for skills and emerging skill gaps. Second, it wants to analyze the relationship between openness and changes in labor demand. The central question in this section will be whether openness is accompanied or not by skill upgrading, or, in other words, is consistent with evidence of skill-biased technological change. A related question is whether increased openness has benefited only skilled workers, or all workers in certain sectors. The analysis will be performed by comparing how skill/industry premiums and labor force composition relate to openness in a systematic and comparable way across countries.

Understanding the evolution and determinants of the demand for skills is relevant from both an academic and policy perspective. From an academic perspective, trade theory indicates that increased trade has an ambiguous effect on skill premiums and demand for 2
and Starks, 1997; Nofsinger and Sias, 1999; Grinblatt and Keloharju, 2000; Sias, 2004; and Choi and Sias, 2009).

In this paper, we exploit new data and analyze the investment behavior of pension funds, for which relatively little is known although they have played a crucial role across countries. The few studies available on pension fund investment behavior are very informative, but they only use part of the data available on pension funds in a given country. They typically use quarterly data for a subsample of pension funds and focus exclusively on equity holdings. Lakonishok et al. (1992), Badrinath and Wahal (2002), and Ferson and Khang (2002) analyze US data, while Blake et al. (2002) and Voronkova and Bohl (2005) analyze data from the UK and Poland, respectively. The limited scope of the data and the emphasis on equity holdings present important shortcomings because most pension funds worldwide invest a large fraction of their portfolios in bonds and other types of assets, and their trading patterns might differ significantly across asset classes.

We use data from Chile, which was the first country to embrace the new mandatory, privately managed, defined-contribution (DC) pension fund model, by replacing the public, defined-benefit (DB) pension system with a DC one in May 1981. Many developed and developing countries have followed suit and reformed their pension regimes, establishing very similar pension funds.<sup>1</sup> For example, the UK moved toward a multi-pillar pension system in 1986. Sweden modified in 1994 the pension system from a pay-as-you-go DB to a second-pillar system that includes a voluntary DC system. In the US, proposals to reform the social security system were also recurrently considered. Following Chile’s example, many developing countries adopted similar reforms, including Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican

> 1 These changes reached even the corporate sector, entailing a shift away from defined-benefit schemes toward defined-contribution schemes to transfer risk from corporations to employees.

3
reserves. These allowed profitable and successful firms in the promoted sectors to retain and reinvest a larger part of their profits than firms in nontargeted sectors. Particularly important because of its link with the overall strategy of export promotion and export push ware the special reserves that were linked to past export performance. These noncredit-based incentives reinforced the impact of credit policies and helped to stress the credibility of the programs.

* The existence of a coherent and credible vision also lent credibility to the consultation processes and deliberative councils. Many other countries around the world tried to promote close consultation between government and the private sector but, in the absence of a coherent vision, such exchanges became little more than forums for special pleading or ineffective talk shops.

- A very important contribution of government in some East Asian countries was the compilation and dissemination of information about longer term sectoral prospects, an activity that is not readily undertaken by the private sector and private securities markets where there is greater emphasis on collection of data with short-term payoffs (e.g. price discovery in futures markets). Again the existence of a credible vision and the carrot and stick approach that were used to encourage cooperation resulted in the collection and analysis of broadly reliable data about the prospects of particular industrial sectors. These reinforced the sighalling effect of policy-based finance and encouraged commercial banks to provide additional financial support to companies that received credit assistance from government financial institutions.

T'he existence of a coherent and credible vision did not imply that it was inspired and imposed by government bureaucrats on an unwilling private sector. On the contrary, rnost studies of Japanese and East Asian finance and industrial policy emphasize the close links and extensive consultation between bureaucrats and representatives of the private sector'<sup>7</sup> . Proof that the strategic vision was not imposed from above is provided in Japan by the few examples where bureaucrats were perceived to have gone too far and the business sector fought successfully against the adoption of particular laws. Perhaps the best example is provided by the defeat of the 1963 draft law on Special Measures for the Promotion of Designated Industries, which was rejected because of opposition to granting explicit draconian controls to MITI officials (Johnson 1982).

> 17 Ohmae (1982) went further and argued that there was extensive cooperation and cohesion between corporate managers and workers. He pointed out that in Japan a corporation was seen as an assembly of people, each known as a member (not an employee). He also stressed the importance of primary education and the role of the government as coach, not captain.

29
such real emergencies, releases of stocks via direct distribution outside the market can be targeted to ensure that all consumers receive what is minimally needed, as previously discussed for the case of the small emergency reserve. A release policy designed to operate via its effect on the general market price is likely to be more costly and less effectively targeted to those in need.

Thus the national storage activity discussed here is appropriately directed at a stockpile of a certain size deemed appropriate to meet security goals rather than aimed at modification of the behavior of prices. In practice, many public storage interventions are targeted at price behavior rather than consumption goals. These include many international commodity agreements and some programs proposed recently.

# **6.2 Commodity agreements and national market price interventions**

Many different policy interventions have been used to address problems associated with price volatility in grain markets. These include controls or sanctions on private “hoarding” or “speculation,” buffer stocks, buffer funds, strategic reserves, use of options and futures, rationing of low-priced supplies, marketing boards, and price floors, all of which obviously affect storage incentives. Other measures that can also affect storage are trade barriers, export taxes, interest rate policies, and production controls.

Since 1931 there have been more than 40 international commodity agreements worldwide. The products covered include wheat, sugar, rubber, coffee, cocoa, olive oil, tea, and jute. In the 1930s international commodity agreements were explicitly designed to address the severe problems of over-supply and low prices associated with the Great Depression by restricting exports and raising prices. They had some degree of success until the over-supply problem was eliminated by the onset of the World War II.

In the 1970s, a major element of the economic doctrine of the “new international economic order” was negotiation of international commodity agreements (ICAs) under the auspices of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).<sup>23</sup> Important programs were directed at sugar, coffee, cocoa, tin, and rubber. The first two of these, like the pre-war agreements, managed storage only indirectly via commitments to control exports, but the others

> 23 See Gilbert (1996, 2005) and Gardner (1985) for excellent surveys of international agreements.

– 27 –
Table 1 Fiscal Deficits and Expenditure Trend3: Period Averaaes for Low-Income ILY) and Middle-Income (MY) Countries

|Period Averages|Ov<br>Defi<br>LY|erall<br>cit/GDP<br>MY|Pri<br>De!fic<br>LY|mary<br>it/GDP<br>MY|To<br>Expenditur<br>LY|tal<br>e(TE)/GDP<br>mY|Int<br>Payme<br>LY|erest<br>nts/TE<br>MY|Cap<br>Expend<br>LY|ital<br>itures/TE<br> <br>MY|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|1975 to 1978|-3.2|-1.7|-'!.2|<br>0.0|19.1|19.5|5.4|6.3|22.8|25.7|
|1979 to 1981|-3.8|-2.1|-;.9|0.0|20.0|21.3|7.2|<br>8.8|22.3|22.4|
|1982 to 1985|-4.3|-4.0|-:.5|-1.1|20.5|23.0|11.7|14.9|20.|<br>17.4|
|1986 to 1988|-4.3|<br>-2.1|-:..5|<br>1.4|21.0|21.7|13.5|17.8|24.7|<br>15.3|

Notes: Low-income (LY) countries (:16) are countries with a 1980 income per capita below<sup>$500.</sup> (MY) countries (45) include countries with an income per capita above $500 and below $4000.

Middle income Data Sources: Government Financial :;tatistics of the IMF deficit refers to the deficit of the central government.
# **I. Introduction**

Several recent travel cost studies have aimed to compare recreational benefits derived from household and on-site surveys (e.g. Loomis, 2003; Shaw, 2003). If it can be shown that welfare estimates derived from cost-effective on-site surveying techniques are similar to household survey results, this may justify using on-site surveys in lieu of large and costly population-based surveys. However, a robust comparison of estimates obtained from each sample requires addressing a number of important statistical issues. In particular, _household survey_ demand is typically censored due to the possibility of observing a large number of zeros (or non-users of the site). Simply treating all zeros in the sample as users of the site introduces an upward bias of the demand and welfare measures. On the other hand, _on-site_ sample demand is truncated at one since it surveys only users at the site. In this case, estimates are prone to higher standard errors and an upward bias from over-sampling individuals whose characteristics may be correlated with higher trip frequencies (endogenous stratification - ES).

In the case of household surveys, it is possible to resolve the issue by separating the recreation ‘participation’ decision from the trip ‘quantity’ decision, thus reducing the bias introduced by non-users of the site. In the case of on-site surveys, it is possible to correct for the potential bias by providing adjustments to the distribution function (Shaw, 1988; Englin and Shonkwiler, 1995). To our knowledge, none of the existing travel cost studies have attempted to correct for both biases when conducting comparative analyses of estimates obtained from household and on-site surveys.<sup>1</sup> In this paper, we test the proposition of whether the household and on-site demand estimation yield similar welfare measures, after accounting for _both_ biases discussed above. For this purpose, we use a household and on-site survey conducted at Lake Sevan, Armenia. This single-site comparison has two advantages. First, as the site is unique, we avoid problems of having to incorporate substitute sites into the decision to

> 1 Loomis (2003) does not discuss the prevalence of zeros in his comparative household sample, and does not consider their relative influence on expected trip demand or welfare.

1
38 3.3.2 The Effects of age and parity on welfare In considering the effects of fertility on maternal and child nutrition, we shall first deal with the effects of maternal age, birth order and total family size, and then separately with birth intervals. It is also necessary to bear in mind that here much of the evidence is on mortality rather than nutritional status. However, it is well known that malnutrition is a major underlying cause of infant and child mortality (Ashworth (1982), Preston (1980), Mosley and Chen (1984), Scrimshaw, Taylor and Gordon (1968)).

Studies of relationships between family size, birth order and maternal age on the one hand, and indicators of child well-being on the other, give mixed results. Differences between cases will undoubtedly partly be due to cultural and economic variation. Another factor is the co-linearity of the demographic variables, older women tending to have higher parity births and larger families.

Studies from Western Europe, Singapore, India and a number of African countries show a definite increase in mean or median birth weight with parity, while the incidence of prematurity seems to be related to parity in a number of ways cross-culturally (Omran and Standley (1981) pp 24-5). Later on in life, however, family size and parity seem to affect child status more unambiguously. In a number of WHO studies in 1976 it was found that "in almost all the [maternal] age groups and in
tools, as exemplified by the emergence of CCT programs as an effective instrument for increasing school enrollment in some contexts.

Finally, two general observations stand out from this review. First, we have stressed that MDG targets are comprised of inputs into human development achievement, in particular social service utilization in education and health, as well as outcomes, for example, literacy and mortality. Defining inputs and outcomes as targets may prove counterproductive, since an optimal policy, which should be aimed at achieving human development, is unlikely to weigh all the targets equally, as the MDGs implicitly do. Policy makers may be tempted to focus on the target that can be most easily fulfilled, as illustrated by the focus of many countries on enrollment rates. Introducing weights or sequencing of targets may be one improvement to a development agenda beyond 2015. Second, too much of the work reviewed here focuses on impact alone without considering the cost side. This may partly explain why this work does not figure as prominently in practical strategy papers as it should. Furthermore, most of the impact evaluations reviewed are silent on the mechanisms of an intervention; these need to be understood in order to trigger learning processes beyond a particular context.

# **References**

- Alderman, H., Orazem, P.F., Paterno, E.M. (2001). School quality, school cost, and the public/private school choices of low-income households in Pakistan. _Journal of Human Resources_ , 36, pp. 304-326.

- Alkire, S (2001). Valuing freedoms: Sen's capability approach and poverty reduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

- Baird, S., McIntosh, C., Ozler, B (2009). Designing cost-effective cash transfer programs to boost schooling among young women in Sub-Saharan Africa. Policy Research Working Paper 5090, World Bank.

- Bedi, A. S., Marshall, J. H. (2002). Primary school attendance in Honduras. _Journal of Development Economics_ , 69 (1), pp. 129-153.

- Bhutta, Z. A., Ahmed, T., Black, R. E., Cousens, S., Dewey, K., Giugliani, E., Haider, B. A., Kirkwood, B., Morris, S. S., Sachdev, H. P. S., Shekar, M., Maternal and Child Undernutrition Study Group (2008). What works? Interventions for maternal and child undernutrition and survival. _The Lancet_ , 371 (9610).

- Bommier, A., Lambert, S. (2000) Education Demand and Age at School Enrollment in Tanzania. _Journal of Human Resources_ , 35 (1), pp. 177-203.

- Bruns, B., Mingat, A., Rakotomalala, R. (2003). Achieving Universal Primary Education by 2015: A Chance for Every Child. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

- Bryce, J., el Arifeen, S., Pariyo, G., Lanata, C. F. Gwatkin, D., Habicht, J.-P., Multi-Country Evaluation of IMCI Study Group (2003). Reducing child mortality: can public health deliver? _The Lancet_ , 362 (9378), pp. 159-164.

- Case, A., Deaton, A. (1999). School Inputs and Educational Outcomes in South Africa. _Quarterly Journal of Economics_ , 114 (3), pp. 1047-1085.

28
Figure 2. Change in global emissions under BRI investment scenario (BRIUBD) by 2030 (percentages).

<!-- Start of picture text --> BRI Infrastructure: change in global emissions in 2030 wrt to the<br>baseline (percent)<br>1.5<br>1.0<br>0.5<br>0.0<br>-0.5<br>-1.0<br>-1.5<br>-2.0<br>CO2 N2O CH4 F-GAS BC CO NH3 NMVB NMVF NOx OC PM 10 PM 2.5 SO2<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 3. Change in carbon emissions in 2030 with respect to Baseline under BRI related infrastructure investment scenario BRIUBD (percentages).

<!-- Start of picture text --> Percent change in carbon emissions in 2030 wrt to<br>Baseline<br>20.00<br>18.00<br>16.00<br>14.00<br>12.00<br>10.00<br>8.00<br>6.00<br>4.00<br>2.00<br>0.00<br>-2.00<br>NPL EGY CHN XSS IND LAC ECU POL KAZ USA E_U xbr IDN wld bri PHL EEU XHY XEA XCS RUS XMN ETH XSA VNM LKA KEN TUR TZA IRN THA MYS BGD KGZ PAK LAO KHM<br><!-- End of picture text --> The impact on CO2 emissions is negligible in aggregate with an increase of 0.5%. The BRI region itself sees an increase of 0.6%, but with China showing no change. There is considerable heterogeneity across countries and regions as highlighted in Figure 3. The reasons vary. In the case of Cambodia, there is a very large increase in output in all three transport sectors. On the other hand, Lao PDR sees a more modest increase in transport, around 5%, and relatively significant

- 12 -
**_11_**

_Family Planning Programs in Sub-Saharan Afnica_

**Figure 1. Number of current users of modern contraceptives, April 1987-May 1989**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 1200<br>1000 4. -<br>N 4 4<br>U<br>m 600 r<br>e '<br>r 400r<br>200 - *<br>I 1 -t-' . _r1 - t -tI- *<br>Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr J<br>1987 1988 1989<br>* Gatonde -* Kidaho - - Kinigi<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Office National de la Population (ONAPO) anfid Columbia University Center for Population and Family Health, _Rapport de I'Etude sur la Protnwion et_ **_la_** _Prestation des Services de Planification Familiale a Base Comnuinautaire_<sup>_a_</sup> _Ruhengeri,_ Kigali, Rwanda, August 1989.

to outreach activities comparable to those in the experimental areas.

Higher levels of education among the women of Gatonde probably account for part of the difference in levels of contraceptive prevalence achieved, but differences between the two experimental areas in the activities of the volunteers and their support from the community leaders are important as well. In Gatonde, 40 percent of the women interviewed reported that the Abakangurambaga were their principal source of information on the benefits of family planning, compared with 6.5 percent in Kidaho. Over 40 percent of current users in Gatonde<sup>but only 20</sup> percent in Kidaho attributed their acceptance of family planning to the work of<sup>the volunteers.</sup> There were far fewer community meetings in Kidaho during this period than in Gatonde, and they were not popular. Consequently, the Kidaho volunteers had fewer opportunities<sup>to speak</sup> of family planning. Several changes in commune leadership in Kidaho over 16 months<sup>had</sup> weakened support for the Abakangurambaga and most likely adversely affected<sup>motivation.</sup> Kidaho volunteers counseled just a fraction of the number counseled by Gatonde volunteers<sup>who</sup> profited from very strong support from local authorities. These authorities themselves<sup>spoke about</sup> family planning during frequent and well-attended community meetings and regularly<sup>gave the</sup> Abakangurambaga a chance to address the groups. Encouraged by an interested public and supportive leaders, the volunteers apparently worked harder and thus created, in their turn,<sup>more</sup> interest.

Without extensive interviewing and observation, the motivating influence of the Abakangurambagas in creating a demand for family planning services cannot be<sup>definitively</sup> established, but this interpretation is certainly suggested in Gatonde where a second<sup>clinic had</sup>