last decade, land markets have been left in the hands of stakeholders and institutions that operated autonomously, without government guidance or strategy guidelines, and without transparent procedures.

# **1.3.2. Demographic pressure, urbanization and demand for land for housing**

Mali is a country of 14.5 million inhabitants. About one-third of the population was urbanized in 2010. The Bamako urban area (i.e. Bamako District and a large part of the 8 adjoining _communes rurales_<sup>11</sup> ) has been absorbing a very large share of the rural-urban migration that, adding to an already high natural population growth results in strong demographic pressure and a young population (see Annex1.1 for an example of the contribution of a migrant to the demand for land). On the basis of the 2009 population census projections and plausible assumptions regarding the urbanization rate in the peripheral _communes_ (INSTAT, 2011), we can estimate that around 2,350,000 people were living in the urban area of Bamako in 2011 _,_ of which 1,987,000 (85%) were living in the core district of Bamako.<sup>12</sup> Figures from the 1998 and 2009 censuses indicate that the population in Bamako District has increased by 4.8% annually, while the annual growth rate of the population in the eight communes has been even higher, ranging from 6.2% to 17.2%. If the overall annual rate of population growth during the next twenty years remains in the range of 4.5% (which can be considered a conservative estimate), the population of the city would reach 3.5 million in 2020 and about 5 million in 2030.<sup>13</sup> On this basis, assuming that the average household size and land consumption remain unchanged, an additional 5,200 ha of urban land will be required by 2020 to cope with the demand for residential land and nearly 12,000 ha by 2030.<sup>14</sup> This would thus require a sharp increase in the provision of land for housing.

# **1.3.3. Economic, financial and political changes stimulating the demand for land**

The demand for land for housing has increased as a response to the steady increase, until recently, in the incomes of urban households,<sup>15</sup> the emergence of urban middle classes which nevertheless remain fairly small,<sup>16</sup> massive remittances from Malian expatriates of which part is invested in land; changes in urban family structure and norms,<sup>17</sup> and a willingness on the part of low-income urban tenants to access land ownership in peri-urban areas,<sup>18</sup> in a context where rents for low-standard and unserviced housing are quite high.

program intended to improve living conditions for the poor. SNQ never managed to assert real control over the land in either the informal settlements or the planned resettlement areas. The resettlement areas were systematically occupied by new squatters, instead of the people they were originally intended for. Progressively, all control of land management was lost and Mali's Government had to suspend the allocation of plots for the first time in 1996 in order to halt land speculation. This effectively ended the SNQ initiative’ (Farvacque-Vitkovic et al., 2007).

> 11 _Communes_ of Baguineda Camp, Dialakorodji, Dogodouman, Kalabancoro, Mandé, Moribabougou, Mountougoula, and N’Gabacoro in the Kati _cercle_ .

12 There is an ongoing debate concerning the creation of Greater Bamako which would attach some of the "peri-urban" _communes_ to the current District (Ville de Bamako, 2012).

13 According to the report “Bamako 2030” (Ville de Bamako, 2012), which assumes an annual population growth rate for the District of 5.4%, the population of Bamako District alone is predicted to reach 6 million by 2030.

14 This crude estimate of the long-term requirement of land for housing is indicative. It only covers the need for residential plots and excludes land requirements for primary infrastructure. It does not take account of the likely lower incomes of internal migrant households, and thus of their smaller land consumption (although this may vary with the type of tenure and location and thus with corresponding land prices). The estimate does not take account of other parameters likely to result in a densification of the city, such as the expected demographic transition (especially in cities), the likely decline in household size for economic and cultural reasons, or the possible changes in the physical patterns of human settlement (with the development of condominium multi-story housing units and types of housing that allow higher urban population density). Nor does it consider the impact of regularization policies or the renewal and redevelopment of city center settlements, which are likely to increase population density but will be accompanied by increased demand of land for resettlement in the periphery of Bamako.

15 However, the real GDP growth rate slowed sharply in 2011 (+2.7%), resulting in a 0.3% drop in real GDP per capita (AfricanEconomicOutlook, 2012).

16 According to African Development Bank (2011), the middle class, characterized by a per capita daily consumption of $4-$20 per day, represents only 8.1% of the population of Mali.

17 Although there is no certainty that changes in family structure and norms have contributed to an increase or a decrease in the demand for land, we hypothesize that the effect of a modestly decreasing fertility rate in urban areas is likely to have been more than offset by children moving out their parents’ dwelling, thus increasing the demand for land.

18 According to the 2009 census (INSTAT, 2011), 43.4% of households in Bamako District were in rented accommodation and 10.2% were being housed free of charge.

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