# IV. Early warning systems

Ethiopia has a range of EWS that permit the early recognition of the onset of a drought. These tools include, inter alia, the LEAP and LIAS tools, a bottom up early warning system, hotspots analyses and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification<sup>39</sup> . The following sections will provide an overview of the methodologies used in each of the tools, with a view to assessing how the existing EWS can be used within Ethiopia’s drought response framework.

## IV.1.  The LEAP early warning tool

### _IV.1.1  The LEAP tool methodology_

LEAP<sup>40</sup> was initiated during PSNP I in 2006 and was developed to estimate food aid beneficiary numbers, and to develop indices for early response in terms of food security. Under PSNP III and IV respectively, the LEAP tool was chosen as a trigger to release PSNP funds under the RFM and FCB. Based on LEAP data indicating a drought of sufficient strength to trigger contingency funds, the PSNP would respond to drought in a timely manner. By providing early warning information during the onset of a drought, the LEAP tool facilitates early action, thereby mitigating the adverse impacts of droughts on food security.

The objective of the LEAP tool is to provide estimates of the number of people in need of food assistance during each of the main harvest seasons _meher_ and _belg_ , at the _woreda_ , regional and national scale. To obtain estimated beneficiary numbers, the LEAP tool performs the following steps (Source: Hoefsloot et al. 2013):

- (i) **_Calculation of planting date:_** Based on crop and rainfall data, the LEAP tool computes the estimated planting date for a range of crops. Thereby, planting dates are computed for each crop and geographic region individually, depending on current rainfall data. Planting dates are computed as a sowing window start dekad<sup>41</sup> and a sowing window end dekad. To determine the planting dekad within this window, LEAP identifies two consecutive dekads in which certain rainfall thresholds are exceeded (these thresholds are crop and location specific). This is usually a good approximation of farmers’ decision to start planting.

- (ii) **_Calculation of Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI)_**<sup>**_42_**</sup> **_:_** The computation of the WRSI is based on a number of input parameters. Specifically, these include rainfall, the planting start and end dates computed in (i), potential evapotranspiration, soil water holding capacity, crop type, the water use rates of a growing crop, the geographical area where the crop is grown, and the length of the growing period. All of these parameters are static except rainfall, which

39 Additionally to the LEAP and LIAS tools and hotspots assessments, a range of other early warning data are collected regularly in Ethiopia. These include, for instance, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification data are collected by FEWS NET (see section IV.7).Moreover, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) uses remote sensing to monitor agricultural and pastoral vegetation in the Horn of Africa on a real time basis.

40 Initially, the LEAP project included the LEAP tool, a contingency finance facility, contingency plans, and national capacity building activities. LEAP was initiated following the implementation of a sovereign index insurance pilot conducted by WFP and GoE. With time, LEAP focused increasingly on the development of the LEAP tool and provision of the tools intermediary and final outputs.

> 41 A dekad is a time interval of approximately ten days. Every month has three dekads, such that the first two dekads have 10 days, and the third is comprised of the remaining days of the month.

42 The Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) is an indicator of crop performance based on the availability of water during a growing season. A WRSI value of 100% would indicate that water requirements for plant growth are fully satisfied.

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