from a low of 11% in 2014 to 24.7% in 2021 (World Bank 2021), and the youth unemployment rate is estimated at 50% (World Bank, 2021), suggesting the situation has further worsened since the last rounds of official statistics. The Covid crisis has only put additional pressures on the economy. Many of the Syrian refugees in Jordan are from southern Syria, near the border, and share tribal affiliations with their hosts and largely are Sunni. These shared ties help to minimize potential tensions amongst groups, with most Jordanians reporting being accepting of Syrian refugees (Alrababa’h et al 2020). Additionally, the Jordanian government delineated sectors where Syrian refugees could receive work permits, to avoid tensions with citizens regarding job opportunities, while at the same time recognizing the need for Syrian refugees to work. These include construction, agriculture, food and textiles (UNHCR, 2017).

In Lebanon, there are 1.5 million Syrian refugees, with close to 1 million of which who are registered, accounting for almost a quarter of Lebanon’s population (UNHCR, 2021b). In addition to the pressures that the influx of refugees has presented, other economic and financial crises, including cycles of protests, Covid, and the explosion in the Port of Beirut, have contributed to plummeting growth rates and the devaluation of the Lebanese dollar (World Bank 2020). Youth unemployment has been estimated by the Ministry of Labor at 37% and general unemployment estimated in the media to be as high as 25% as of August 2019 (Hamadi, 2019), suggesting a worsening picture. While there aren’t updated statistics on youth unemployment, the general unemployment rate is currently estimated at 40% (World Bank, 2021). The combination of the previous financial crises, protests and Covid has put more than half of Lebanon’s population below the poverty line (World Bank, 2020). Similar to Jordan, Lebanon has restricted the sectors that can legally hire refugees. These are construction, agriculture, and environmental/cleaning services. Unemployment rates are considerably higher for refugees, particularly women (VASYR 2020). Moreover, the Covid crisis has contracted the construction industry, one of the few sectors where refugees could find legal employment (VASYR 2020).

With this overall deteriorating economic landscape, the presence of a large number of refugees in Lebanon contributes to an underlying fragility. In a poll conducted in 2019, Lebanese cited resource constraints related to public services and jobs as contributing to both intra-Lebanese and host-refugee tensions (UNDP and ARK, 2019). While tensions related to employment decreased after restrictions were put in place with regard to refugee employment, it is unclear how recent economic crises may have changed tensions, though there is widespread agreement that risks to social and civil unrest are growing due to this combination of crises (World Bank 2021).

# _Description of the programs:_

To address the risk that economic pressures could increase instability, Mercy Corps implemented the Fostering Resilience by Strengthening Abilities in Lebanon and the Access to Justice and Jobs in Jordan, funded by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This analysis also includes data from the _3Amaly_ program in Lebanon, funded by Global Affairs Canada. All three programs focus on increasing employment through skill building, targeting hosts and refugees who are largely 18-34 years old. These interventions are targeted in locations where a significant influx of refugees could affect labor markets. In Jordan, Mercy Corps 5