which is low by international standards;<sup>16</sup> the coefficient has barely changed since.<sup>17</sup> Such discrepancy in the data further underscores the necessity to support the production and in-depth analysis of household budget surveys to accurately gauge and understand welfare dynamics in efforts to provide appropriate policy recommendations derived from the true reality of economic conditions.

24. Empirical evidence substantiates the government’s efforts to alleviate the consequences of the economic slowdown post-2008 and the reverberations of the difficult period that followed. Though the figure in Annex 1 is to some extend dated, the Egyptian government continued to prioritize social protection strategies as reflected in its initiatives to “support the marginalized societal factions and provide protection to the most vulnerable” (Ministry of International Cooperation 2015).<sup>18</sup> In response to inflationary pressure caused by the macro-fiscal reforms implemented from 2014 on, the government implemented a multi-pronged strategy to protect the poor and middle class; notable features of this strategy include an increase in the social protection budget of about EGP 85 billion in FY 2017/2018, the launch of conditional cash transfer programs, and the implementation of reforms targeting the youth as well as those necessary to stimulate job creation (World Bank 2015). These measures initially targeted the poorest quantile, but were broadened in efforts to address the needs of the shrinking middle class.

25. As far as the availability of relevant data, of the 30 indicators selected to assess SDG 1, data for 15 are available. Of the available 15, only four are performing better than expected given Egypt’s GNI per capita; among the remaining half, 11 indicators are under-performing, and two appear to be performing as expected. Although the 15 missing indicators could paint a more comprehensive picture, given the performance of the relevant indicators that are available, we suggest that it is likely Egypt is performing well with respect to SDG 1. With that being said, relevant policies addressing the needs of those living below the national poverty line are critical, and obtaining recent household surveys is also necessary to further the analysis, conduct effective policy dialogue, and implement a strategy thereafter on the basis of more accurate and timely data.

26. Egypt’s progress in SDG 2, Zero Hunger, is significantly performing worse compared to its peer countries. Over the period 1998-2014, the proportion of wasted children in Egypt dramatically increased; as a result, Egypt’s ranking with respect to this indicator fell sharply from the 55<sup>th</sup> percentile to the 22<sup>nd</sup> percentile. As a lower-middle income country, Egypt’s high proportion of malnourished children is unusual as this is more typical of lower income countries. However, it is suggested that Egypt’s food production has not kept pace with the rapid population growth (Galal 2002), a phenomenon that perhaps could be contributing to the country’s underperformance in this indicator. Additionally, Egypt appears to also be significantly underperforming in the proportion of overweight children. Between 1995 and 2014, Egypt’s percentile ranking decreased from the low 9.8 percentile to an even lower 6.1 percentile. As Egypt is a lowermiddle income country, this finding is curious insofar as childhood obesity is typically observed in wealthier countries; however, it should be noted that the reforms implemented in the 1990s largely dismantled consumer subsidies except for calorie dense foods such as bread and a few other

> 16 Across OECD countries, the average Gini coefficient of disposable household income reached 0.318 in 2014, compared to 0.315 in 2010.

> 17 The Gini coefficient was recorded at 0.30 in 2012/2013 as well as 2015.

> 18 The proportion of the poorest quantile population covered by social assistance programs appears to be over-performing, though the regression was produced with 2008 data, which is the most recent point recorded.

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