-  15  -

towards other pan-European partners. The share of CEEC-8 increased from 3 percent in 1996 to 6 percent in 2003. So did the shares of Romania and Turkey. The latter displayed the strongest growth with its share in Bulgaria’s imports rising from 2 percent in 1996 to 4 percent in 2001 and 6 percent in 2003.

**Table 8:** _Direction and dynamics of Bulgaria’s imports in 1996 and 1999-2003 (in millions of US dollars and percent)_

||(|in millio|ns of US|dollars)|I|ndex 1999|Index 2003|.|(in|percen|t)||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||1996|2000|2001|2002|2003 1|996=100|100=2000|1996|2000|2001|2002|2003|
|World|5,074|6,505|7,278|7,987|10,901|107|168|100|100|100|100|100|
|EU-15, of which|1,780|2,864|3,592|4,015|5,406|148|189|35.1|44.0|49.4|50.3|49.6|
|Germany|575|903|1,112|1,139|1,555|141|172|11.3|13.9|15.3|14.3|14.3|
|Greece|196|317|412|482|725|156|229|3.9|4.9|5.7|6.0|6.7|
|Italy|319|550|699|906|1,115|144|203|6.3|8.5|9.6|11.3|10.2|
|CEEC-8 of which|166|341|383|424|620|167|182|3.3|5.2|5.3|5.3|5.7|
|Czech Republic|66|118|116|124|177|149|150|1.3|1.8|1.6|1.6|1.6|
|Estonia|0|0|0|0|1|58|497|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Hungary|33|62|80|102|135|148|219|0.7|0.9|1.1|1.3|1.2|
|Latvia|1|1|1|1|2|29|281|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Lithuania|4|3|3|6|13|82|520|0.1|0.0|0.0|0.1|0.1|
|Poland|33|90|107|100|153|220|171|0.7|1.4|1.5|1.3|1.4|
|Slovak Republic|19|41|38|45|72|159|175|0.4|0.6|0.5|0.6|0.7|
|Slovenia|8|27|37|46|67|273|244|0.2|0.4|0.5|0.6|0.6|
|EFTA|91|89|91|109|164|97|183|1.8|1.5|1.4|1.2|1.3|
|Romania|70|232|173|164|262|101|113|1.4|3.6|2.4|2.0|2.4|
|Turkey|96|215|274|394|667|171|311|1.9|3.3|3.8|4.9|6.1|
|SEE-5, of which|105|55|46|61|97|44|177|2.1|0.8|0.6|0.8|0.9|
|Albania|0|0|0|0|0|28|340|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|BiH|0|0|0|1|1|113|277|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.0|
|Croatia|5|4|2|14|31|42|836|0.1|0.1|0.0|0.2|0.3|
|Macedonia|32|26|20|18|24|78|93|0.6|0.4|0.3|0.2|0.2|
|Moldova|12|2|3|4|7|31|302|0.2|0.0|0.0|0.0|0.1|
|Serbia & Mont|56|23|21|24|34|27|151|1.1|0.3|0.3|0.3|0.3|
|CIS (11) of which|1,860|1,960|1,818|1,480|2,017|75|103|36.7|30.1|25.0|18.5|18.5|
|Russia|1,694|1,585|1,457|1,171|1,370|66|86|33.4|24.4|20.0|14.7|12.6|
|Ukraine|122|335|323|248|430|195|128|2.4|5.2|4.4|3.1|3.9|
|ROW|1,015|804|949|1,401|1,792|78|223|20.0|12.4|13.0|17.5|16.4|

Source: Derived from UN COMTRADE database as reported by Bulgaria.

Last but not, significance of imports from CIS countries has continued similar downward path as in Bulgaria’s exports. Their aggregate share in Bulgaria’s imports fell from 30 percent in 2000 to 19 percent in 2002-03.

To sum up, Bulgaria’s geographical trade pattern has indeed displayed characteristics distinctive from other CEEC-9 economies. But this was only the case until around the financial crisis in 1996-97. Bulgaria’s trade peculiarity, not only confined to directions of trade but also revealed in Bulgaria’s factor content intensity of exports, came to an end in the period following the adoption and implementation of stabilization-cum-transformation program in 1997. While the share of the EU-15 in Bulgaria’s foreign trade remains below the levels of other CEEC-9 economies, the share of trade with pan-European partners is at a similar level. The convergence to patterns of these countries occurred only during the current expansionary phase that began in 2000.

# **D** **_._** _Dynamics of EU-destined exports in regional perspective_

Since changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar vis-à-vis Euro may distort dynamics of exports even examined in a comparative perspective, Table 9 and Figure 3 present the evolution of shares of Bulgaria in EU external imports against those of its regional partners— CEEC-8, Romania and SEE-5. The data corroborate earlier observations about non-sustainability