rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
reported wages is different from the 2003-4. The CSES data used suggest that between 1997 and 2007, educational attainment as measured by average years of schooling of working population increased by about 31 percent (mostly because of large increases in secondary and tertiary qualifications); however, when we consider the much smaller sample of workers with reported earnings, the increase in average educational attainment (years of schooling) is only about 5 percent over the 1997-2007 period, reflecting a small increase in workers who are primary school educated and a large increase in tertiary qualifications. Furthermore, the proportion of workers with secondary qualifications shows a decline (Table 1).

In the case of China, the results are based on only 2 surveys of urban population spanning the 1999-2005 period. Even during this relatively short period, the composition of educational qualification of the working population changed substantially; the proportion of workers with lower secondary or lower qualifications decreased drastically, while those with upper secondary and tertiary qualifications increased by almost 20 percent and 15 percent respectively.

In Mongolia and the sample of wage employees with reported earnings, the composition of education qualifications changes substantially over time, with the proportion of those with upper secondary qualifications (especially vocational qualifications) increasing substantially over the last decade and (counter-intuitively) the proportion of those with tertiary (diploma or university) qualifications decreasing by 45 percent. This implies that the 2007 sample of wage employees used was less skilled compared to the 1998 sample, especially for those with tertiary qualifications.

Table 2 summarizes the over time changes in labor force composition by 1-digit industry group (Tables A8 to A14 provide the details by country). One common finding is the shift away from agriculture. The industries which gained in employment in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and China (Cambodia is discussed separately), are Retail and Wholesale trade as well as the Finance/Business sector within services. The share of manufacturing increased somewhat in Thailand, while it decreased somewhat in Indonesia the Philippines, Vietnam and the urban centers of China.

7
<!-- Start of picture text --> GHG<br>mitigation<br>measures<br>INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING<br>Increase in<br>ship running<br>cost<br>Increase in Shift to cheaper Changes in demand Changes in<br>generalized transport modes, for maritime GHG<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> “eesee<br>Increase in Reconfiguration of Changes in import Socio-economic<br>import prices global logistics and export volumes impacts on<br>of goods networks of countries States<br><!-- End of picture text -->
Mexico MFA 26

**Table 7. Fixed Effects Quality Difterence Regression Bound Groups 5 and** 6

|Independent<br>Variables<br>|Coefficient<br>t Statistic<br>Intercepts ai<br> <br>|F Statistic (1,22)<br>Ho: a;=0|
|---|---|---|
|-a6<br>|1(o<br>5lo6.502<br>1.640c<br>(0.9162)<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_|_|
|pjtuS|0.514<br>8.402 A<br>**(0.0612)**<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_|<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>_|
|Hjt|0.008<br>1.788b<br>(0.0045)||
|**Uit**|**~~-0.412**<br>**_-0.451_**<br>(0.9133)<br>-0.4S___<br>_<br>||
|**Vjt**<br>__<br>__<br>_<br>__<br>_<br>__<br>__J|**87.2x10**<br>**9**<br>0.201<br> <br>X 0)<br>__<br>_<br>_<br>__<br>_<br>_<br>__|_<br>_<br>_<br>_<br>__<br>_<br>_|
|[**Tt**<br>__________________|-0.249<br>-1.956b<br>_<br>(0.1275)||
|DS|-1.293<br>-1.258<br>0.209<br>(1.0282)|0.025 cannot<br>reject|

Adjusted R<sup>2</sup> = 0.93, n=20.

' significant at one percent.

b significant at five percent.

**c** significant at ten percent.

# Hypothesis Tests

1. ' = 1, t statistic, -4.616 , reject at one percent.

2. ' = 1, F(1,23) = 63.050, reject at one percent.

3. ' = 1, y' = 8' = *' = 0, F(4,23)=83.107, reject at one percent.
## TV) Political regime tye political liberties and project performance

Civil and political liberties are undoubtedly associated with each other and with democratically-elected governments. Yet there is a clear analytical distinction among these two types of liberties and the type of political regime: for example, the degree of civil and political liberties varies widely among non-democracies. Therefore, finding that more civil liberties are associated with better ERRs does not imply that different types of political regimes are associated with better performance. To try to disentangle these relationships, we test for the possible association between ERRs and these two related aspects of governance: political liberties and political regime type.

# A) Political liberties

The most widely used measure of political liberties is an index also published by Freedom House, based on 11 indicators of political rights<sup>3 0</sup> . Like the ranking of civil liberties, it is a subjective ranking from 1 to **731** Another possible measure of political liberties is the index of human rights violations (IHRV) constructed by Pourgerami (1988), based on reports of Amnesty International on the extent of human rights abuses for the years 30 The eleven are: chief authority recently elected by a meaningful process; legislature recently elected by a meaningful process; fair election laws; fair reflection of voter preference in distribution of power; multiple political parties; recent shifts in power through elections; significant opposition vote; freedom from domination by the military, foreign powers, and other powerful groups; no major group or groups denied reasonable self-determination; decentralized political power; and informal consensus (de facto opposition power).

**31** In many studies (e.g., Helliwell 1992), these two closely correlated indices are summed to create one overall index of liberties.

- 26 -
9 negative impact on achievement.<sup>30</sup> For example, in Guinea, students from split-shift classes scored 3.6 percentage points lower in French and 5.6 points lower in math.<sup>31</sup> An additional consequence may be higher teacher absenteeism, since this scheme is demanding and repeating the same information to multiple sections may be tiring.<sup>32</sup> The original plans in some countries called for the “off-shift” students to be occupied with schoolwork outside the class. However, it has often been impossible to organize teaching during “off-shift” hours, and children typically just go home.

Multigrade teaching in low-income countries may also result in reduced instructional time.<sup>33</sup> In multigrade classes that are common in small rural schools, students are in school but get only a fraction of the teacher’s time; if classes have no textbooks or students cannot read them, they cannot use their time productively when the teacher works with another group. Strategies to cover more students with fewer teachers or classrooms risk reducing the quantity and quality of instructional time available for pupils.

**Table 2-1. Instructional Hours in African Countries Using “Split-Shift” Schooling**

|**_Type/ No. of hours_**<br>**_annually_**|**_Mali_**|**_Guinea_**|**_Senegal_**|**_Cote_**<br>**_d’Ivoire_**|**_Burkina_**<br>**_Faso_**|**_Average_**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Standard Classes**|888|747|675|754|858|784.4|
|**Split- Shift Classes**|645|585|547|580|603|592|
|**% Difference**|37.7%|27.7%|23.4%|30%|42.3%|32.2%|

_Source: Kim 1999. Amounts average for all grades_ _How does class size relate to instructional efficiency?_ The relationship between class size and student performance is complex.<sup>34</sup> Combined with meager school resources large classes adversely affect teacher recruitment, especially to posts in rural areas and create a vicious circle.<sup>35</sup> But even without splitting shifts, lowering mean class size has substantial costs and is not necessarily the most efficient strategy for increasing achievement. For example, an early study conducted in Malaysia revealed that lowering class size would raise student achievement by 1% but would cost US$50 per student.<sup>36</sup> In a study of primary schools in Israel it was found that increasing instruction hours and reducing class size had significant effects on students' achievements. It seemed more cost effective to increase use of available instructional time than to decrease class size.<sup>37</sup>

# **TEACHER ABSENTEEISM**

Teacher absenteeism has been documented extensively.<sup>38</sup> Higher absence rates are predicted by factors at the community level (remoteness, parents’ education level), teacher level (teacher’s professional or age-related seniority), and management level (physical 30. Dia 2003 31. Barrier et al. 1998 32. Linden 2001; Suryadarma et al. 2004 33. Attar 2001, Njie 2001, EARC 2003 34. See Abadzi 2006 for a review 35. Onwu 1999 36. Beebout 1972, in Fuller 1987 37. Lavy 2001 38. Chaudhury et al. 2004b, 2004c; Jacobson 1991
|**Appendix Table 2: Jobs U**<br>|**sed to Classify Individuals as Willing to**<br> <br>% of candidates who say they|**Work in Low Pre**<br><br>are willing to wor|**stige Jobs**<br><br>k in this job|
|---|---|---|---|
|Job type|Full Sample|Male|Female|
|Admin assistant|57.8|54.5|61.6|
|Data Entry|51.2|45.6|57.6|
|Customer Care|41.3|45.8|36.2|
|Indoor Sales|29.2|37.1|20.3|
|Telemarketing|25.7|24.4|27.2|
|Copy Editor|25.1|24.0|26.3|
|Outdoor Sales|13.5|20.7|5.3|
|Retail|12.6|19.8|4.5|
|Waiter|3.4|5.4|1.1|
|Sample size|2002|1066|936|

Appendix Table 3 shows the characteristics of the 31 firms in our second experiment by industry.

# **Appendix Table 3: Experiment 2 firms by industry**

- no. of firms industry

- 5 Retail 4 Marketing and Advertising 4 Healthcare 4 Financial services 3 Manufacturing 3 IT 3 Food and beverage 1 Shipping 1 Public sector 1 Media 1 Hospitality 1 Conglomerate

39
- 37.-

interest rates, adopted an appropriate exchange rate policy, and generally managed<sup>exenal</sup> finance have begun to remove structural constaints and to foster an eninm<sup>ent which Is more</sup> conducive to efficient resource use.

4.13 Ihe simulations discussed in paras. 4.24.12 sugges **t** hat exchange rate, interest<sup>rate and</sup> fiscal policy have an important role to play in managing future macroeconomic<sup>imbalances in</sup> Kenya. A _5_ percent devaluation of the real exchange rate appears to reduce<sup>the current deficit</sup> by about one percent of GDP. However, it also appears to have a negative impact<sup>on the fiscal</sup> deficit Likewise, in a constrained credit envivonment, every one percentage<sup>point (of GDP)</sup> increase in domestic borrowing to finance the iscal deficit appears to increase<sup>the real domestic</sup> loan rate by around 0.5 percentage points. However, the required increase<sup>in the real domestic</sup> interest rate falls as domestic inflation rises.

4.14 In summary, the simulation **s** uggest the need for joint exchange rate<sup>and interest rate</sup> flexibility in managing the macroeconomic imbalances in Kenya. More important perhaps, aggressive exchange rate action is necessary if the economy is o reduce<sup>its dependence on</sup> foreign savings. On the fiscal front, greater discipline is warranted since it<sup>would reduce the</sup> public sector borrowing requirement, lower the equilibrium real interest rate<sup>and accommodate</sup> a higher level of investment in the private secmr.

# V. Limitations and Future Extensions

_5.1_ The model is only as useful as the accuracy of the response functions. The coefficients used in the simulations reported in Chapter IV are based on our econometric<sup>analysis using</sup> Kenyan data (import elasticities, the demand for financial assets), the econometric studies of other
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WPS4041

# **Crime and Violence in Development**

## **A Literature Review of Latin America and the Caribbean**

### **By**

### **Alessandra Heinemann and Dorte Verner**<sup>**1**</sup>

### **Abstract**

The authors review the recent literature on crime and violence in Latin America and the Caribbean and present a broad overview of the main ideas and empirical findings. They provide estimates of the magnitude of the problem, trends, and the manifestations of crime and violence in Latin America. They also discuss the ways in which violence affects development, the root causes of violence and the empirical evidence on the determinants of crime. The authors conclude by stressing that preventive measures and innovative social policies are efficient and under-utilized strategies to address the problem and call for both more research and operational experimentation.

### World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4041, October 2006

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> 1 We are very grateful to our colleagues in the Social Development Department at the World Bank for excellent comments and suggestions.
The peculiarity of this algorithm is that it usually obtains good performances by just combining simple classifiers such as regression trees. A regression tree partitions the covariate space into a set of rectangles and then fit a simple model (constant) to each rectangle. Therefore, the estimated function is just the average of the outcomes included in a particular rectangle. In other words, the partition can be described as a series of if-then statements, and it can be visualized by a graph that looks like a tree. The simplest possible tree is called tree stump and it contains only one split and two terminal nodes. Tree stumps tend to work well in boosting (Schonlau 2005).

Boosted regression is actually implemented using the algorithm introduced by Friedman et al. (2000) since they were able to reinterpret it in a likelihood framework, thus allowing statisticians to compare its objective function to the OLS and logistic one.

To avoid overfitting, it is also possible to introduce a shrinking parameter. This reduces the contribution of each additional tree, thus decreasing the impact of an over-fitted tree. The cost of this procedure is a substantial increase in computational time, since it is necessary to increase the number of iterations in order to compensate this smaller steps.

Bagging is an additional technique which we have used to reduce the variance of the final prediction without influencing the bias. At each iteration, we have used only a random subset of the train set (50% of it) to build the tree. The random subset has been increased to 90% of the training set when looking at the tails given the limited number of ones, i.e. firms in the top 10% of the outcome distribution.

This algorithm has been implemented in Stata using the command _boost_ (Schonlau 2005). A grid-search has been used to find the optimal parameters, that is the ones that maximize accuracy or minimized the MSE in the CV sample. We have considered trees with up to 8 splits, up to 150 iterations (i.e. number of trees) and two values for the shrinkage parameter (1 and 0.1), for a total of 2400 combinations (8*150*2). In addition to this, for the binary dependent variable survival we have also considered two error distribution (Gaussian and Logistic), thus computing 5800 combinations for each outcome-fold pair.
**Figure 3: Annual sales growth rate**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 0.18<br>0.16<br>0.14<br>0.12<br>0.10<br>0.08<br>0.06<br>0.04<br>0.02<br>0.00<br>2000 2001 2002 2003 2004<br>High-income- high-growth Low-income-high-growth Low-income-low-growth All states<br><!-- End of picture text --> 28
regional value chains in support of this scaling up. It would also have the potential to deliver powerful demonstration effects on the benefits of integration and to help entrench the integration process.

The practical challenges to implementation of this proposal are also substantial – in particular the political economy challenges. The largest of them is the issue of “credible commitment” – the challenge of managing the investment risk by maintaining the commitment of the host government(s) and other partners over the long term.

The paper offers a number of potential solutions to address these challenges. They include commercial and financial mechanisms that can establish an effective incentive system from the outset; formal, institutional approaches to ensuring commitment such as legal constraints and enforcement mechanisms; and informal approaches to align mutual interests of stakeholders. Effectively addressing commitment risks will likely require making use of all three mechanisms.

# **References**

Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, S.H.. 2006. “Unbundling institutions.” _Journal of Political Economy_ . University of Chicago Press. 113(5): 949-995.

Auty, R. 2010. “Early Reform Zones: Catalysts for Dynamic Market Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Mimeo. World Bank.

Boyenge, J.P.S. 2007. ILO Database on Export Processing Zones, Revised. ILO: Geneva.

Brulhart, M. 2009. “An Account of Global Intra-Industry Trade: 1962-2006.” _The World Economy_ . 32(3): 401-459.

Crescenzi, R Rodríguez-Pose, A. and Storper, M. 2007. "The geographical processes behind innovation: A Europe-United States comparative analysis." _Working Papers 2007-13_ . Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.

Fakhoury, I. 2011. “Realizing the Vision for Aqaba: The Creation of the Aqaba Special Economic Zone.” Presented at the AFZA Convention 2011. Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. 11-13 May, 2011.

Ferroni, M. 2002. “Regional Public Goods in Official Development Assistance.” Occasional Paper 11. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.

Goldsmith, J.L. and Posner, E.A.. 2005. _The Limits of International Law._ New York: Oxford University Press.

Hardin. 2002. _Trust and Trustworthiness._ New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.

Laursen, F. 2003. Comparing Regional Integration Schemes: International Regimes or Would-be Polities? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series. 3(8). September, 2003. Miami European Union Center.

Levy, B. and Spiller, P. 1996. “Framework for Resolving the Regulatory Problem.” In Levy, B and Spiller, P (eds.) _Regulations, Institutions and Commitment: Comparative Studies in Regulation_ . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

26
While deeper international integration typically generates gains at the country-level, it also imposes adjustment costs within countries. These costs are associated with reallocations of workers across sectors, regions and occupations triggered by sector-specific competition and demand trade shocks. Countries more exposed to competition shocks from China may face stronger adjustment costs. Policies to deal with these trade shocks may include general inclusive policies, such as social security and labor policies (including education and training). Welldesigned credit, housing and place-based polices may also facilitate adjustment. Trade-specific adjustment programs may play a complementary role. B&R economies more exposed to competition shocks should consider whether their inclusive policies are appropriate to deal with the adjustment costs imposed by trade shocks.

This paper adds to a growing literature seeking to assess the implications China’s transformation and increased integration in the world economy on economic outcomes in other countries. In a series of influential papers, Autor et al. (2013, 2014, 2015) estimate the impacts of increased Chinese import competition on labor markets in the United States. Autor et al. (2013) emphasize that US local labor markets are differentially exposed to Chinese import competition because of initial heterogeneity in their production structure, and argue the transition of China to a market economy – and the consequent rise of its productivity and trade flows – can be regarded as an exogenous trade shock to those local labor markets. Although the rise of China also represented a global demand shock (manifested in the rise of China’s imports), Autor et al. (2013) note that such demand shock was relatively unimportant for the US. This is because the increase in US imports from China was much stronger than the rise in US exports to China, leading to sizable bilateral trade imbalances. However, this point does not apply generally across B&R economies. Building on these insights, this paper examines econometrically the heterogeneous impacts of supply and demand shocks associated with China’s trade dynamics for sectoral exports of B&R economies. Exposure to competition shocks are measured with trade flow data by detailed product category, and capture both the degree of exposure to Chinese competition in the domestic and in third markets. Exposure to the global demand shocks associated with China’s rise is measured in an analogous way, exploiting the fact that some countries initially exported more of what China buys than what China sells. By focusing on both supply and demand shocks, the study also accounts for intermediate inputs that are used in production of Chinese exports.

5
# **Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Growth in Latin American Cities: An Analysis Using Nighttime Lights Imagery**

## **Juan C. Duque ( )**

Research in Spatial Economics (RiSE-group), Department of Economics, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia.e-mail: jduquec1@eafit.edu.co

**Nancy Lozano-Gracia,** Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience.The World Bank. Washington, USA. e-mail: nlozano@worldbank.org

**Jorge E. Patino,** Research in Spatial Economics (RiSE-group), Department of Economics, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia.e-mail: jpatinoq@eafit.edu.co

**Paula Restrepo,** Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience. The World Bank. Washington, USA. e-mail: prestrepocadavid@worldbank.org

**Wilson A. Velasquez,** Research in Spatial Economics (RiSE-group), Department of Economics, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia.e-mail: wavelasquezh@unal.edu.co

**Keywords** : Urban form ꞏ Latin American and Caribbean cities ꞏ Remote sensing, Cluster Analysis

JEL: N96, O18, O21, C38, R14