Ukrainian and EU markets separately, and it should probably also be able to depict other important trading partners for Ukraine (e.g. Russia). Furthermore, it should also consider agriculture at a relatively high level of disaggregation, so that policy changes for individual agricultural products that are of importance to Ukraine (e.g. grain, oilseeds, milk, etc.) can be analyzed separately.

Over the years, many research teams have dedicated tremendous scientific resources to the development of applied trade models. Often, however, this work by different teams has been uncoordinated, which has both advantages and disadvantages. An element of competition between different modeling groups and models is useful because it can lead to innovation and ultimately the development of better models. However, lack of coordination can also mean duplication of effort. Furthermore, for many model end-users – such as policy makers – complex models are essentially ‘black boxes’. When different models produce different results, policy makers and other users have scant basis for determining which results to trust more.

For our analysis of the potential impacts of a Ukraine-EU FTA, we have chosen to work with the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modeling framework. GTAP, at home at Purdue University in the United States, can be seen as a global effort to bundle the experience that has been accumulated in the field of applied trade modeling. Many countries have contributed to the GTAP project, and many different modeling approaches and data innovations are now part of GTAP. As a result of this effort, a common database and a multi-purpose, flexible general equilibrium trade model have been developed and are maintained and distributed through the GTAP centre. Almost 5000 members from all over the world are now part of the GTAP network, making it truly a global effort with the goal to constantly improve modelbased trade analysis (GTAP 2008).

This by no means implies that all other models are inferior to GTAP. Rather, the GTAP network should be seen as a platform for communication. This platform links a peer group of experts who represent a large share of the combined experience in applied trade analysis that is currently available world-wide. This ensures that potential improvements in modeling techniques and data are subject to expert scrutiny and, if found useful, are rapidly made available to a large group of members worldwide. Transparency ensures that anyone can look into the GTAP ‘black box’ and decide for himself whether the model is useful or needs to be changed to enable a specific application. The size of the GTAP network ensures that many people are acquainted with the model and its strengths and weaknesses. In the present context, for example, World Bank experts who have worked extensively with GTAP in the past will be able to provide on-going quality control for the policy dialog on the Ukraine-EU FTA.

GTAP data and GTAP models are available in the two technically most advanced algebraic computer modeling languages: GEMPACK and GAMS. In addition, a wide range of technical extensions and special data collections are available through the GTAP network. Important examples are, for example, the carbon emissions database and the GTAP energy model that enable the analysis of trade policy changes within the political framework of global reduction in carbon emissions and CO2 certificate trade. The network also facilitates discussions though yearly short courses and global conferences. In addition, new research teams frequently join the network and contribute new ideas and technical solutions.

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