# **INTRODUCTION**

In 2015, an estimated 2.2 million Syrians Under Temporary Protection (SUTPs) were residing in Turkey, the majority arriving in the country over the last 4 years.<sup>2</sup> Turkey’s national population is roughly 75 million; recent refugees account for approximately 3 percent of the population. For a country that has never experienced such a large-scale, sudden inflow of foreigners, demographic changes in the composition of the population and labor force will yield unprecedented implications.

This paper examines, as data allows, the relationship between the size of the foreign-born population and host community poverty rates in Turkey. First, this paper finds the poverty rates of ‘recent migrants’ near the Syrian border (NSB) significantly increased from 2009 to 2013. Second, the number of foreign-born households being captured by the Labor Force Survey (LFS) is expanding, which suggests a growing number of foreign households that are likely to be Syrians. Third, with respect to poverty, the results show no negative impacts on the host community as a result of the increasing size of the foreign-born population. The impact of SUTPs has been both positive and negative. Overall, a significant negative impact on host communities’ welfare is not observed in the data. This paper’s scope of analysis includes the country as a whole using a nationally representative survey. While regional case studies may reveal salient stresses on public services and job displacement, nationally, there is no significant impact. Over the period of 2009 to 2013, the poverty rates of host community households have stayed relatively stable near the Syrian border; despite the high poverty rates experienced among the recent migrants.

By country of origin, the displacement of Syrians is one of the largest in recent history. As a result of the civil war that began in 2011, Syrians started to leave their homes and look for safety in neighboring countries across the region. By November 2015, about 4.3 million Syrians were seeking refuge in primarily Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and the Arab Republic of Egypt.<sup>3</sup> The only other time in the last half century that the world experienced a larger group of refugees from a single country is the case of Afghan refugees during the 1980s to 1990s. Refugee displacements of this size are rare. Consequently, they are not well studied and their impacts are not well understood. Moreover, the case of Afghan refugees in Pakistan is different, since they were stigmatized to a larger extent, which limited their movement in Pakistan. While there is a large literature on the role of immigrants on the native-born population in terms of labor market competition, there is a limited amount of studies that examine the effect from displaced populations. Many conclusions from the traditional literature on the study of immigrants’ impact on natives cannot be applied to the case of Syrians in Turkey. There are many differences between the inflow of Syrians and other flows of extended family and economic immigrants. First, the sheer volume of Syrian refugees and the short timeframe in which they entered Turkey is unprecedented. For the case of Syrians in Turkey, or displaced populations in general, large movements of refugees are not restricted due to humanitarian reasons. Second, formal immigration processes are controlled, limited, and regulated by destination countries. Therefore, results from literature on “immigrants” are very different than a focus on displaced or refugee populations.

Recent literature on the labor market effects of SUTPs estimates negative impacts on host community employment rates. The negative displacement results are largest for the young, women, informal workers,

> 2 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) – Syrian Regional Refugee Response, Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal

> 3 (UNHCR) – Syrian Regional Refugee Response, Inter-agency Information Sharing Portal

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