by decree has reproduced the old state-centered system based on interventionism and paternalism in MENA countries, thus moving them away from the prospect of establishing economic and political institutions to sustain a market economy. Most importantly, this topdown approach meant that the prospect for establishing a consensus around a renewed SC became more remote. In the 1990s, government transparency, rule of law, and voice and accountability all suffered in MENA (Yousef, 2004).

# **_Potential for the advent of a new participation-strong social contract_**

What was the potential for reform at the turn of the 21<sup>st</sup> century in MENA? On the economic front, the global situation was such that most countries in the MENA region could no longer afford to undertake partial and often reversible reforms while relying on oil revenues and foreign aid, which have declined significantly. Governments in the region have become increasingly dependent on national resources to finance economic and social programs, and the need for an institutional and regulatory framework to foster growth has remained a high priority. On the political front, the public opinion showed significant support for an electoral reform, good governance, and an integration of opposition parties into the political game. For example, respondents to a 2002 survey have rated civil and individual rights as the highest priority in eight MENA countries (Zogby, 2002). Moreover, a Gallup survey undertaken that same year showed that individual attitudes in MENA are more driven by political and economic considerations than religion and family factors (Tessler, 2003).<sup>21</sup> Unfortunately, this potential has not materialized and around the middle of the last two decades, the MENA region has been the scene of events that have left their mark on people's minds, both in their sheer scale and in the suddenness with which they have occurred. In the early 2010s, a series of anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions spread across many countries of the region, more specifically, the Arab world. This set of major events, referred to as the "Arab Spring," started in Tunisia and spread rapidly to Libya, Egypt, Yemen, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Bahrain.<sup>22</sup> Some other events of a smaller scale took place in the MENA region around that same period, including sustained street demonstrations in Algeria,

> 21 The security context of the 2000s in the MENA region also called for an extension of political reforms. Heavy defense budgets justified by large unresolved conflicts in the region have imposed economic costs that have become unsustainable for people (UNDP, 2002). The objectives of political and social stability could certainly be pursued by strengthening political openness, provided that States are prepared to redefine the terms of the SC that links them to their citizens.

> 22 Economic stagnation combined with large-scale corruption involving the highest governmental officials were seen as the key causes of the uprising in Tunisia (Rijkers et al., 2017a and 2017b). For an analysis of how the street took power in Egypt, see Acemoglu et al. (2018). In both cases, the rulers were deposed as were Libya's and Yemen's. In fact, a common demand to all protest movements in these countries is "the complete bringing down of the regime."

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