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statistics than exports to Belarus alone. The differences were rather staggering: IMF-reported exports were 2.3-times, 1.3-times, 1.4 times, 2.1 times and 1.5 times as high as combined exports to CIS and Baltics in 1995-99.

**Table 5:** _Two statistical images of Bulgarian exports: total, EU-oriented, Belarus and CIS together with Baltic States (in millions of US dollars and percent)_

||1995|1996|1997|1998|1999|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Totalexports (IMF)|5,220|4,781|4,314|4,150|3,755|
|to EU (IMF)|2,013|1,913|1,942|2,137|2,035|
|toBelarus (IMF)|2,036|1,205|1,223|1,083|545|
|Total exports(BNB)|4,967|4,689|4,809|4,193|4,006|
|to EU (BNB)|1,951|1,879|2,127|2,114|2,089|
|to CIS and Baltic states(BNP)|889|906|846|520|359|
|Difference total|5%|2%|-10%|-1%|-6%|
|Difference EU|3%|2%|-9%|1%|-3%|
|DifferenceBelarusvs.CIS/Baltics|129%|33%|45%|108%|52%|
|Memorandum:||||||
|EU share (IMF)|39%|40%|45%|51%|54%|
|EU share(BNB)|39%|40%|44%|50%|52%|

Source: Bulgarian National Bank official statistics and IMF Direction of Trade database.

From the point of view of this analysis, this is irrelevant who is right and who is wrong, as both sets of data coalesce in one important respect. The share of EU-15 in Bulgaria’s total exports is roughly similar in both statistics and underlines features setting Bulgaria apart from other CEEC-9 economies in its geographical pattern of trade in the 1990s. In contrast to other CEEC-9, Bulgaria’s shift towards the EU began to take place only in the late 1990’s. Contrast this with the developments in direction of trade of neighboring Romania: the share of the EU was larger in Bulgarian than in Romanian total exports but only in 1993. While Romanian exporters moved quickly to EU markets, this did not happen in Bulgaria until 1998 (Table 6).

**Table 6** : _Share of the EU-15 in Bulgaria’s total exports and Romania’s total exports in 1993-2003_

||1993|1994|1995|1996|1997|1998|1999|2000|2001|2002|2003|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|EU-15 in Bulgaria' s exports|47%|46%|39%|40%|45%|51%|54%|52%|55%|56%|53%|
|EU-15 in Romania' s exports|44%|55%|61%|65%|64%|71%|73%|73%|75%|73%|68%|

Source: IMF Direction of Trade database.

Yet, had it not been for exports to the EU, the overall picture would have been bleaker, albeit exclusively during the 1997-99 crisis and the recovery phase that began in 2000. The fall in non-EU directed exports in 1997-99 was spectacular. In 1999 the value was almost 50 percent below its peak level in 1995. Huge fall in non-EU exports over 1997-99 rather than the explosion in EU-destined exports were responsible for the share of the EU to go above a 50 percent mark. Indeed, over 1996-99 EU-oriented grew on average at 2 percent per year, whereas non-EU exports fell at an annual rate of 11 percent. The total cumulative contraction in non-EU exports of 58 percent was, however, only partly offset by EU-oriented exports as the value of EU-directed exports also fell in both 1996 and 1999 cumulatively by around 10 percent. In 2003, the value of EU-directed exports was, however, 87 percent above the 1995 level that of other exports was merely six percent higher. Hence, the reorientation of Bulgaria’s exports has occurred mainly at the expense of markets lost elsewhere.

Bulgaria’s foreign trade statistics reported to the United Nations and available only since 1996, not only substantiate the above observations about Bulgaria’s export performance in 199699 but they also point to the convergence of developments in 2000-03 with trends observed in other CEEC-9 economies. The 2000-03 phase witnessed stronger growth in EU-exports, with the average growth rate of 15 percent as compared with 9 percent for non-EU exports.