1. Recent refers to the latest year with data (typically 2011 or 2013). If data is not available for 2000 or 2015, the closest earlier year with data is used, however, the data is never older than 1998 for “2000” or 2010 for “recent.” The year for country specific data can be found in the respective graphs. Expected refers to the expected level of the indicator at the country’s GNI per capita, given the cross-country pattern between the indicator and GNI per capita. If the relationship is loose, the confidence interval for the expectation in question is relatively wide.

2. Green = Currently significantly over-performing; Red = Currently significantly under-performing; Black = Performing as expected.

3. Projections for 2030 are not provided if the cross-country relationship is not considered sufficiently tight (see criteria earlier in the note). For internet use, a projection is not made, despite a tight relationship, since the expected line shifts significantly even in the medium run due to external forces such as technological development.

4. A high ranking signals strong performance; for the underlying indicator, this may correspond to a relatively high value or relatively low value. The ranking for an indicator is not reported if the available sample is less than 20.

**<u>Table 3</u>** : Egypt – Summary of results for SDG indictors.

|**Cross-country relationship**<br>**with GNI/cap**|**Over-performing**|**As Expected**|**Under-performing**|
|---|---|---|---|
|**Tight**<br>_r_<sup>_2_</sup>_> 0.3_|Poverty headcount (-)<br>Under-5 mortality (+)<br>Improved water sources (+)<br>Access to electricity (-)<br>Urban slums (+)|Youth literacy rate (+)|Domestic material consumption (-)<br>Social assistance programs (-)<br>15-24 Employed population below intl.<br>poverty line (-)<br>Trained teachers (x)|
|**Moderately tight**<br>_0.3 > r_<sup>_2_</sup>_> 0.1_|Labor share of GDP (+)||Wasted children (-)<br>Overweight children (-)<br>Unemployment rate (x)|
|**Loose**<br>_r_<sup>_2_</sup>_< 0.1_|Manufacturing share of GDP (+)<br>Protected marine areas (+)<br>Threatened species(-)||Debt service (-)|

(+) = larger country rank improvement (or smaller drop) 2000-2015 than for GNI per capita, (-) = larger drop 2000-2015 than for GNI per capita, (x)= rank for GNI per capita is not available.

15. Table 3 assesses the cross-country relationship between GNI per capita and the SDG indicators. The r<sup>2</sup> coefficient is a statistical measure produced by the regression that represents the goodness of fit of the model. In other words, the coefficient determines to what extent the relationship between GNI per capita and the specific indicator are correlated. As noted by the table above, a “tight” relationship, or otherwise strong empirical correlation, is assumed when r<sup>2</sup> is greater than 0.3; likewise, a moderately tight relationship is represented by 0.3 > r<sup>2</sup> > 0.1; lastly, r<sup>2</sup> < 0.1 is indicative of a loose relationship.

b. Projections and SDG Impact 16. Egypt’s projected average annual rate of GNI per capita growth until 2030 is 3.7 percent.<sup>9</sup> The projected SDG values reflect what can be expected given a country’s starting point, its projected growth in GNI per capita, typical rates of progress according to cross-country patterns, and a gradual convergence to close gaps between observed and expected values.<sup>10</sup> Projections of the SDG indicators are produced when the cross-country relationship between the indicator and GNI per capita has either a strong (“tight”) or weak (“loose”) empirical correlation.<sup>11</sup> A loose

> 9 Projections from CEPII are used for this projection and other Country Development Diagnostics applications given their wide country coverage and well-documented methodology; OECD data have been used when projections have been missing. In the projections, it is assumed that future GNI growth will coincide with future GDP growth (both expressed in constant 2005 US$) given that this is the variable that CEPII and other sources project.  It should also be reiterated that the GNI per capita growth projection is based on an underlying Business-as-Usual (BAU) assumption.

> 10 Given that (i) SDGs have extreme values (such as 100 percent for improved water) and (ii) the current SDG level never is exactly as expected given GNI per capita, the projected values gradually converge toward the expected values. For example, for a country that over-performs in water access, as GNI per capita increases the extent of over-performance gradually declines, so that when the expected value is 100, over-performance has reached zero.

> 11 A tight enough relationship is defined as an R2>0.3 (tight) or 0.3>R2>0.1 (moderately tight), while R2<0.1 are defined as loose.

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