estimates, most of which went up to 1987 or 1988, to take account of the substantial downward movement in the real value of the Rupee which started in about 1987, and of the the July 1991 devaluation. Secondly, extensive and unprecedented liberalizations of the trade and other policies affecting manufacturing had either been recently implemented or were in prospect, and it was felt that the book should take account of the direct and indirect impact of these changes on agricultural incentives. Thirdly, it was strongly urged that the protection and incentive estimates for the 1 980s and later should be put in a longer term perspective which, among other things, would allow for fluctuations and longer term trends in world commodity prices. Finally, it was suggested that the study should recognize India's potential impact on world prices in the cases of commodities - notably rice - where Indian production or consumption is a large fraction of world production or consumption, and where changes in Indian imports or exports are likely to perceptibly affect world prices.

In order to accommodate the suggestions for a longer and updated time series of agricultural incentive indicators, it was decided where possible to use some shortcuts to extend the detailed estimates of effective protection and effective subsidy coefficients (see below for a description of these concepts) up to 1990, but to confine the longer term series to nominal protection estimates for the years 1965 to 1993. Fiscal 1993 was the first full year following the July 1991 devaluation and the first year to include the trade policy and other reforms introduced in March and April 1992. Subsequently, for most but not all of the crops, the nominal protection estimates were extended up to 1995. These long period nominal protection estimates for agriculture have in turn been used as one input into the analysis of the extent of exchange rate overvaluation inherent in India's trade regime, which is a key element for quantifying the relative incentives over time between agriculture on the one hand and manufacturing, minerals and non-traded activities on the other. Nalin Kishor and subsequently Anju Gupta have had major roles in these later developments in the research.

The extension of the original study as described above took much more time than originally anticipated and involved very extensive data collection and manipulation. Most of this was done in Washington, with some assistance from researchers in India on various topics, mainly as regards Indian production and price data. The original data and the details of how it has been processed are much too extensive to include and describe in detail in the book that is under preparation. On the other hand I feel that there should be some place in which this material is available, so that it can be checked, corrected, extended, contested-whatever-by other researchers. At the same time, following the suggestions made at the 1991 Delhi workshop, for each commodity studied, I thought it would also be useful to include some data on India's role in world production, consumption and trade. In this way researchers would be provided with an initial basis for rough judgments and a starting place for subsequent research, among other things on the question of India's likely influence on world prices.

Thirteen crops will be covered in the planned background papers: together these crops currently account for roughly 65 percent of the value added of the Indian crop sector. The crops will are be grouped as described below in five background papers, followed by various aggregations which will be presented in the sixth.

Sugar and sugarcane Food grains (rice, wheat, maize, sorghum and gram) vii