points (column 3). This represents 1.44 times the decline in the share of households receiving remittances over the period. While exports affect remittances through a lower number of emigrants in a municipality, another channel may be that higher labor force participation could reduce reliance on remittances. Interestingly, while growing imports also attract back emigrants from the United States, they did not deter outward migration and had no impact on remittances from the United States.

**Table 4: Imports and local migration patterns**

||||**IV**||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|**(a) Impact on the number of immigrants**|All|Unskilled|Semi-skilled|Skilled|
|log (Imports per worker), change|34.50***|21.49***|6.672***|3.863***|
||(7.094)|(4.871)|(1.130)|(0.626)|
|Observations|1,980|1,980|1,972|1,868|
|Demographic and employment controls (year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Median income control(year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|**(b) Impact on the number of immigrants from other Mexican states**|All|Unskilled|Semi-skilled|Skilled|
|log (Imports per worker), change|28.86***|19.55***|5.917***|3.396***|
||(5.835)|(4.452)|(1.032)|(0.562)|
|Observations|1,980|1,980|1,972|1,868|
|Demographic and employment controls (year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Median income control(year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|**(c) Impact on the number of immigrants from other countries**|All|Unskilled|Semi-skilled|Skilled|
|log (Imports per worker), change|5.641***|1.947**|0.754***|0.467***|
||(1.912)|(0.958)|(0.186)|(0.102)|
|Observations|1,980|1,980|1,972|1,868|
|Demographic and employment controls (year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Median income control(year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|**(d) Impact on the size of the working age population**|All|Unskilled|Semi-skilled|Skilled|
|log (Imports per worker), change|331.8***|204.9***|85.28***|40.32***|
||(51.42)|(35.48)|(12.80)|(6.836)|
|Observations|1,980|1,980|1,980|1,980|
|Demographic and employment controls (year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Median income control(year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The dependent variable is the change from 2005 to 2015 for the group specified in the column header, namely: the number of residents who lived in another state of Mexico or abroad 5 years before (panel a); the number of residents who lived in another state of Mexico 5 years before (panel b); the number of residents who lived abroad 5 years before (panel c); the total working age population (aged 14-55) (panel d). The explanatory variable is the change in the log of imports-to-workers from 2004 to 2014. Demographic and employment controls include the proportion of rural population, the proportion of population aged 15 and more who are literate, total population, and the share of employment in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of economic activity (all variables in the year 2000). Unskilled: Primary completed or less; Semi-skilled: Secondary completed; Skilled: University completed.

Domestic and international migration patterns also help explain the positive effect of growing exports per worker on the size of the working-age population aged 14-55 in urban municipalities, especially among the unskilled (Table 3, panel d). A 10 percent expansion in exports per worker raised the skilled working-age population by about 12 people, compared to a staggering 83 people for the unskilled working-age population, accounting for roughly 30 percent of the increase in the number of unskilled people in this age-group in the average municipality over the period 2004-14. The positive effect of higher exports per worker on inward migration suggests that the positive labor market effects are to some extent diluted because of the increase in local labor supply, especially the unskilled. Growing imports per worker 16