Because of a lack of detailed data on the registration and movement of goods across the borders, we employed a number of different calculation methods commonly used in this type of work in order to assess the extent of informal trade.

Three main conclusions can be drawn from these estimates:

- **Official trade statistics are currently sketchy at best and should therefore be treated cautiously as it is probable that the level of informal trade is in fact greater than that of official respective bilateral trade.** One positive aspect of this situation may be to highlight the fact that the level of regional integration is far higher than the official statistics would indicate, even if this integration has come as a result of differences in the tax burden between countries.

- **These differences in tax burden and in the resulting consumer sale prices are the main drivers of informal trade.** At a time when numerous discussions are taking place about whether to cut fuel subsidies and in a context where fuel prices can differ by a ratio of 1:10, with further increases possible, it is important to remember that without greater harmonization of prices at the regional level, there is every chance that the level of informal trade will continue to grow. Therefore, this study calls for increased regional coordination between Tunisia and its neighbors in terms of tariffs, tax levels and subsidies.

- **The economic and social importance of informal trade in the region means that any attempt to strengthen controls at the borders would probably cost more in terms of equipment and infrastructure and probably lead to higher levels of corruption among customs officials based on the border, further undermining government control.** However, it is also important to gather more information about trade flows and the behavior of officials in order to limit illegal flows as much as possible since there are links between informal trade and illegal imports, such as weapons. However, as usual, the emphasis is given to equipment whereas seizures remain probably extremely limited.<sup>40</sup>

- **<mark>Increased repression along the border based on more equipment and infrastructure is costly and may have a limited impact in the current context and could even undermine the internal governance of customs due to increased corruption.</mark>**

<mark>Therefore, in the present context, what can be done? Global experiences in this field have shown that the strengthening of controls (especially with more technology) cannot alone cope with smuggling. A comprehensive policy should be undertaken, which should limit the incentives for smuggling, such as change the tariff policy for certain products and strengthen internal controls within Customs to limit the emergence of local deviant practices. In addition, it is very important to monitor data on seizures, number of declarations, average value and so on.</mark>

> 40 Interviewed by Leaders, the former head of customs explained: “ a new impetus was given [to fight informal trade] with an increasing number of means of vehicles, strengthened electronic surveillance, building rehabilitation especially in border-posts and improved living conditions of [customs] personnel” and gave the example of resuming scanner in Ras Ajdir. Leaders (2013.2).

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