|with the restriction that<br>**this**rate must be in the<br>interval<br>I.024,.1301.|_Table 2._|_Assumed an_|_nual inc_|_rements lo l_|_(fe exnecta_|_ncy_||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Theselimits piovide<br>schedlles of minimum|Initial||Males|||Females||
|andnRaximumannual<br>decremnts<br>toinfant<br>decrements<br>to infant<br>|**life**<br>**expec-**<br>tancy|**Minimum**|Medium|Maximum|<br>Minimum|Medium|Maximun|
|murtality, varying by||||||||
|the initial rate, shewn<br>inTlble3.|45<br>45<br>**50**|0.14<br>**t1.1**<br>0.16<br>|<br>0.34<br>**5**0.38<br> <br>0.39<br> <br>|<br>0.55<br> <br>0.61<br> <br>0.63<br> <br>|<br>0.14<br> <br>0.16<br> <br>0.1<br> <br>|<br>0.3<br> <br>0.40<br>7<br>0.4<br> <br>|6<br>0.58<br> <br>0.65<br>3<br>0.69<br> <br>|
||55|0.16|<br>0.39|<br>0.62|<br>0.1|7<br>0.4|4<br>0.70|
|Life tables<br> <br>|60|0.15|<br>0.37|<br>0.59|<br>0.1|7<br>0.4|3<br>0.68|
|are<br>selected<br>from<br>are selected<br>from<br>Coale-Demeny models|**605**<br>**70**<br>75|**0.13**<br>**0.10**<br>0.07|<br>**0.32**<br> <br>**0.26**<br> <br>0.18|<br>**0.52**<br> <br>**0.42**<br> <br>0.28|<br>0.16<br> <br>**0.1**<br> <br>0.12|<br>0.4<br>**4**<br>**0.3**<br> <br>0.2|0<br>0.69<br>**6**<br>**0.57**<br>7<br>0.47|
|that<br>provide<br>the<br> <br> <br>|80<br>|0.03|<br>0.08|<br>0.12|<br>0.09<br>|<br>**0.2**<br> <br>**1**|**1**<br>**C.34**<br> <br> <br>**1**|
|roece<br> <br>e|**-**|||||<br>|<br> <br>|
|<br> <br> <br>pro jected<br>life|||||**.**|<br>**.**|<br>**.**<br>|
|expectancy and infant||||||||
|mortality rates. First, a||||||||

|level of the life tables is chosen to give the desired<br>IMR<br>(an<br>interpolated<br>table<br>is constructed<br>if<br>necessary). Mortality rates up to age 14 are taken<br>|_Table3. Assumed a_<br>_to_**_ifant_**_n_|_nnual decre_<br>_ortalityrate_|_ments_|
|---|---|---|---|
|from this table. Second, another level of the life<br>tables is chosen to give the rates for ages 15 and<br>older such that the desired level of life expectancy is<br>obtained. Among the four Coale-Demeny families,|**Initiaa**<br>**imnfant**<br>**mortatity**<br>rate<br>Minimun|Mediun|Maximun|
|that<br>families<br>is chosen<br>which<br>minimizes<br>the<br>divergencebetween the two chosen levels.<br>divergence|150<br>0.83<br>140<br>**0.92**<br>~~~<br>~<br>~~~~~<br>**1.00**<br>120<br>1.13<br>110<br>1.16<br> <br>|<br>2.08<br> <br>**2.32**<br>~~~~130<br> <br>**2.50**<br> <br>2.63<br> <br>2.69<br> <br>|<br>4.02<br> <br>4.47<br> <br> <br>**4.81**<br> <br>5.03<br> <br>5 15<br> <br>|
|_U.N. Population Division projections of mortak_<br>_indicators_|**100**<br>**1.16**<br>90<br>1.14<br>80<br>1.10<br>70<br>1.03|<br>**2.71**<br> <br>**2.66**<br> <br>2.56<br> <br>2.41|<br>**5.16**<br> <br>**5.07**<br> <br>4.86<br> <br>4.56|
|As many of the mortality estimates are|60<br>0.93<br>50<br>0.81|<br>2.20<br> <br>1.94|<br>4.16<br> <br>3.65|
|from<br>the<br>U.N.<br>Population<br>Division,<br>a<br>brief<br>description of its mortalit.y projection assumptions is<br>included here. The U.N. Population Division model|40<br>0.67<br>**30**<br>**0.50**<br>20<br>0.31<br>10<br>0.09|<br>**1.62**<br> <br>**1.26**<br> <br>0.84<br> <br>0.36|<br>**3.05**<br> <br>**2.35**<br> <br>1.56<br> <br>0.68|
|for projecting mortality is based on an assumed<br>||||
|schedule of age and sex-specific survival rates, which|is obtained from mo|del life ta|bles, or from|
|national life tables when reliable data are available (U|nited Nations 1989).|As in the|World Bank|
|model, improvements in life expectancy are projected d<br>Three variants, 'tast", "middle", and 'slow" are defined t|epended on the initia<br>o project mortality tre|l level of lif<br>nds into th|e expectancy.<br>e future. For|
|particular countries, one of these is selected on the|basis of the initial le|vel of mor|tality and its|
|reported speed of mortality improvements. No defin<br>middle, or fast improvement or how the selection of a s<br>of improvements in life expectancy at birth for each<br>expectancy at birth estimates, the U.N. chooses approp<br>four Coale-Demeny families, and five United Nations (<br>give a maximum male life expectancy of 82.5 and a fe|itiGn is given of wha<br>chedule is made.**TI**<br>of the variants. Bas<br>riate life tables from<br>1983) models. These<br>male life expectancy o|t constitut<br>**ble**4 shows<br>ed on the<br>among nin<br>models are<br>f 87.5.|es past slow,<br>the schedule<br>resulting life<br>e models: the<br>extended to|

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