# 1. Introduction

Sudan has been experiencing multiple macroeconomic shocks, such as low growth, a wide trade deficit, and the emergence of multiple exchange rates since its separation from South Sudan in 2011. The loss of three-quarters of its oil reserves, which were located in South Sudan territory, led to a shortage of fuels and food staples, and the country became a net oil importer. Given the high fuel prices, the government implemented subsidies to protect the poor and vulnerable. However, the subsidies contributed to a further deterioration of the fiscal accounts and an increase in inflation, which has sustained macroeconomic imbalances over the last decade. The social, economic, and political discontent led to the removal of President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 and to a transitional civilian government in September of 2019. They latter implemented an ambitious agenda of reforms, including the removal of various subsidies and unification of the exchange rate, in an effort to reverse years of structural imbalances.

In this context, the civilian government deemed social safety net programs crucial to protect the poor and vulnerable. Indeed, the transitional government implemented a quasi-universal cash transfer program – the Sudan's Family Support Program (SFSP), parallel to its agenda of economic reforms. The SFSP program was specifically designed to mitigate the expected short-term adverse effects of the economic reforms on the population and to help generate political and economic space for the reforms. The SFSP –a quasiUniversal Basic Income (UBI) cash transfer program, was expected to reach 80% of the population. It consisted of delivering cash transfers to the Sudanese families in the recipient's territory expected to be affected by economic reforms and other short-term shocks. The SFSP sought to exclude the top 20% using administrative data and other sets of exclusion criteria.<sup>3</sup> The SFSP social safety net program was paused after a military takeover in October 2021. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the adverse economic and social effects that it brought to the country, political discontent increased in Sudan. This ultimately resulted in a military takeover in October 2021. The military government in office since October 25, 2021 has continued the efforts to achieve fiscal

> 3 For the SFSP, beneficiary eligibility determination and enrollment modality may differ in urban and rural areas. In urban areas, program eligibility was determined through exclusion of 20 percent of households using administrative data to verify income and asset ownership. A simple set of exclusion criteria were most likely to include (i) voluntary self-exclusion; (ii) mobile phone usage of voice services above certain threshold; and (iii) holding a public service position (with the possibility for waiving this criterion for low-level public servants). In rural areas, with higher concentrations of poverty, the program considered using a geographic targeting approach to identify areas that may be universally included. In such localities, families were registered and automatically enrolled without the application of exclusion criteria, given targets of reaching 80 percent of the population.

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