46 in business or sustainable livelihoods, 11% said they could build a house. “Those who are surveyed by telephone three months after the return, 52% said they were able to return to their province of origin. The remaining 48% said they chose another province due to lack of shelter, land, livelihood opportunities or insecurity in their home areas.” UNHCR also shares concerns over the reintegration needs. It is larger than the capacity Afghanistan has right now. Many refugees are returning to uncertain futures and have to “rebuild their lives amidst increasing levels of internal displacement, insecurity and levels of violence not seen since the fall of the Taliban in 2002.” (2017)

# **<u>Syria</u>**

# Security

The war in Syria has killed more than 400,000 people and uprooted 12 million since it started in 2011<sup>52</sup> . “As of March 2017, more than 5 million Syrians have fled the country and 6.3 million people are displaced internally.” As of now, Syria is still undergoing severe attacks and airstrikes. Achieving ceasefire is still evading Syria. At the end of 2016, a ceasefire was declared but none of the parties involved had respected it<sup>53</sup> . According to Human Rights Watch’s report on Syria, “unlawful attacks on civilians by all parties of the conflict persisted throughout the year.” “Government forces used at least 13 types of internationally banned cluster munitions in over 400 attacks on opposition‐held areas between July 2002 to August 2016, killing and injuring civilians, including children<sup>54</sup> .” Between March 2011 and June 2016, at least 12,679 persons died from torture, abuse, starvation, beating and disease in government detention. EIU’s economic outlook for 2017‐2021 predicted that the intensity of conflict in Syria would abate is more confined to rural areas.

# Economic Opportunity

Syria’s fiscal situation will remain dire. Its oil and tax revenue will continue to be depressed. Substantial needs from the military will persist Infrastructure is damaged both by IS and coalition airstrikes<sup>55</sup> . These factors hinder the efforts of reconstruction and economic development. The war brought enormous damage to the economy, domestic demand has fallen due to in part to refugee exodus, and the oil sector is mostly offline. The government has financed its large deficit by printing money and drawing down foreign reserves. The Syrian pound has lost four‐fifths of its value, and reserves have dropped from $20 billion to $1 billion since 2010. The IMF estimates that Syria’s GDP today is less than half of what it was before the war<sup>56</sup> . In July 2017, the wheat harvest was set to fall short of government

> 52 CNN <u>http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/27/world/meast/syria‐civil‐war‐fast‐facts/index.html</u> 53 EIU Syria politics: Quick View ‐ Proposal for de‐escalation zones drawn up at Astana talks

> 54 ‐ Human Rights Watch (HRW) Syria, Events of 2016, <u>https://www.hrw.org/world</u> ‐ <u>report/2017/country chapters/syria</u>

> 55 EIU Syria economy: Quick View ‐ Wheat harvest set to fall short of government forecast, July 2017

> 56 ‐ Syria’s new war millionaires, Economist June 2017 <u>https://www.economist.com/news/middle east‐and‐africa/21722833‐new‐elite‐peace‐would‐be‐bad‐business‐syrias‐new‐war‐millionaires</u>