**We noted that although there was a strong National Guard presence on all the roads in the region, they were also remarkably relaxed about the levels of informal trade. There were virtually no customs officials to be found, and the checks conducted by the few that were seen are easily spotted and avoided by smugglers.** Part of the reason for this is the relative weakness of the national government following the January 14, 2011 revolution as well as the local security situation, which swallows up a large share of government resources. There are also very few alternative solutions to encourage the development of these regions and thus reduce the high levels of unemployment that affect thousands of young people living there.

# **Extrapolation of Estimates of Informal Trade in Fuel from Algeria**

**Informal trade in fuel has become significant in recent times as a result of the last two increases in the price of gasoline at the pump, which widened the gap in prices between the two neighboring countries, both of which are major oil producers, with gasoline now ten times as expensive in Tunisia as in Algeria**<sup>**29**</sup> **. This goes hand in hand with a sharp decline in Tunisian household purchasing power over the last two years.** Based on a variety of sources, the level of trade in fuel in the Kasserine governorate is similar to that in the other governorates along the Algerian border.<sup>30</sup> If we hypothesize that 60% of the 3,000 vans involved in informal trade are carrying fuel and that each one makes only a single trip each day with an average load of 1.6 m<sup>3</sup> over a 320-day year, we can estimate that the amount of fuel imported informally is 921,600m<sup>3</sup> per year (or 3,000x0.6x1.6x320)<sup>31</sup> , with a sales value of around TND 882m (at $95 per barrel).

# **Estimates Based on Unit Values**

**Estimates based on interviews alone are not sufficiently accurate due to a number of factors.** In the case of interviews with transporters, for example, the quantities being transported are often underreported, and there is often a lack of knowledge of the real value of the goods concerned. In some cases, the sample is simply not large enough.

As a result, we tried to determine the volume and scope of informal cross-border trade using other data sources and through cross-checking to arrive at a figure closer to the reality.

We cross checked data on the number and type of means of transport used in this form of trade. This allows us to extrapolate the volume and value of goods concerned by informal trade.

Nearly 1,000 Tunisian vehicles use the Ras Ajdir border crossing each day, specializing in informal trade between Libya and Tunisia. These consist of:

- Between 200 and 300 25m<sup>3</sup> trucks;

- between 100 and 150 vans or small trucks;

- between 500 and 600 private cars.

> 29 ICG (2013) states that fuel is the “king” product of informal trade to Tunisia.

> 30 There was insufficient information on flows of other goods.

> 31 According to media in Algeria, 1.5 million of m3 of fuel would be sold in Morocco and Tunisia. Based on the population differential between Morocco and Tunisia, fuel smuggled to Tunisia would be at least 500,000 m<sup>3</sup> (Econostrum 2013).

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