lockdown. Our main findings are the following: First, in the early months of the lockdown, labor force participation and unemployment fell, while there was very little change in employment levels. Second, job search activity declined, both because of continued attachment to employers who had suspended operations and because of almost no hiring activity. Third, by the end of June, we estimate that (registered) employment was 11.9% less than it should have been, based on trends from the previous two years. Fourth, this lost employment was entirely due to the sharp decline in hiring activity in the first few months of the crisis. This is evident from both the administrative and online vacancy data. As noted above, the early months spanned a period when seasonal activities, especially related to tourism, would normally be expanding and this needs to be taken into consideration in assessing the impact of the crisis. Most of the “missing” jobs thus far in 2020 have been in accommodation and food, which reflects the pandemic’s effect on tourism. Fifth, and somewhat unexpectedly, separations to the end of May were _lower_ than would be predicted based on the trends from recent years. This almost certainly was due to the government’s measures to protect existing employment relationships. This was done through a prohibition of layoffs in industries affected by the crisis and by tying the major form of income support to the maintenance of jobs.

To sum up, the analysis points to the important role that policy has played in determining how the Greek labor market has adjusted to the pandemic and lockdown. The measures put in place by the government to mitigate the effects of the crisis on employers and workers emphasized job protection. The decreased labor demand, then, translated into a downturn in hiring rather than increases in separations that would lead to higher unemployment. In this respect, Greece has been similar to some other European countries that have adopted measures to avoid layoffs. This stands in contrast to some other countries, like the United States and Canada, where unemployment rose quickly as policies emphasized income support more than job protection. Of course, it is still far too early to assess the efficacy of the different approaches. However, at least in the short run, the policy stance adopted by Greece and others to maintain employment relationships where possible seems to have had positive attributes.

We are still, of course, in the early days when it comes to understanding how COVID19 is affecting labor markets in Greece and elsewhere. The analysis in this paper largely covers just the lockdown period and does not include analysis of what is happening to employment as Greece emerges from the lockdown and implements a “new normal,” which may or may not include further lockdowns. So, there is an important research agenda going forward.

In the next stage of our research, we plan to assess three topics. First, an in-depth examination of how the impacts of the pandemic and lockdown were distributed across different types of workers, different occupations and industries, and different parts of the country. Second, an updated analysis of the labor market and employment relations adjustments as Greece emerges from the lockdown and as the mitigation measures are phased out. Third, the medium-term impacts of the mitigation strategies based on maintaining employment relationships rather than income support for workers who have lost their jobs. This last issue is particularly relevant for the ongoing debate in labor market policy about protecting jobs vs. protecting workers.

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