# **6.6 Effect of Information on Self-Reported Spending Plans**

There are several possible interpretations of this result. One possibility is that individuals update their _intended_ behavior but cannot follow through on their consumption plans, for example due to self-control problems or liquidity constraints. Since our survey collected data on spending plans, we can test this hypothesis directly. We estimate equation (6) using selfreported spending plans measured post-treatment as the dependent variable, rather than actual spending observed in the credit card data. The results show that individuals do not change their stated spending plans in response to information about inflation or the exchange rate, as shown in Table 7. For reference, columns (1) and (2) reproduce the treatment effects of information shocks on the inflation and exchange rate expectations. In columns (3) through (6), we report the results of estimating equation (6) using self-reported spending plans for the four specific sub-categories of spending. Each of these outcomes is measured on a subjective 3-point scale that takes the values -1 (if the respondent anticipates spending less in the future), 0 (if they anticipate spending about the same), or +1 (if they anticipate spending more). Each outcome in columns (3) to (6) of Table 7 corresponds to the survey equivalents of the consumption behavior measured with administrative data in columns (3) to (6) of Table 4. In column (3), the dependent variable is the stated intention to increase or decrease spending on durable goods. The prediction from the macroeconomic model is that higher inflation expectations should increase intended spending on durables. We find no evidence of such an effect. The impact of increased inflation expectations on total consumption is close to zero (-0.006), statistically insignificant and small in magnitude: a 1 pp inflation shock is associated with a reduction in expected durable spending of only 0.001 standard deviations. In column (4), the dependent variable is intended future spending on electronic goods, which is our survey proxy for durable tradables. These estimate test the prediction that expected depreciation should result in an increase in planned spending on durable tradables. Contrary to this prediction, the coefficient on the exchange rate shock is close to zero (0.008) and statistically insignificant. In column (5), the dependent variable is the expected change in borrowing. The theoretical prediction is that an increase in inflation expectations will lead to higher expected borrowing. We do not find support for this hypothesis. The coefficient on inflation shock is close to zero (-0.003) and statistically insignificant. In column (6), the dependent variable is the intention to increase total spending. This regression tests the hypothesis that expectations of inflation or exchange rate depreciation may be interpreted as a sign of an overall economic slowdown and should therefore lead to a decline in spending. Instead, we find that the coefficients on the inflation shock and the exchange rate shock are both close to zero (-0.006 and 0.003) and statistically insignificant.

Taken together, these results suggest that shocks to macroeconomic expectations do not affect consumption plans even when elicited immediately after information provision. This 27