_Table 4: Gravity model Controlling_ _<u>for MRT.</u>_

||**Ordi**|**nary Least Squar**|**es (OLS)**|**Poisson**|**Pseudo Maximum**<br>**(PPML)**|**Likelihood**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**[1]**|**[2]**|**[3]**|**[4]**|**[5]**|**[6]**|
|**Ln (Exports)**|**Full**<br>**sample**|**Africa↔RoW**|**Intra-Africa**<br>**trade**|**Full**<br>**sample**|**Africa↔RoW**|**Intra-Africa**<br>**trade**|
|ln(GDP importer)|0.59<sup>***</sup>|0.64<sup>***</sup>|0.43<sup>***</sup>|0.54<sup>***</sup>|0.86<sup>***</sup>|0.08|
||(0.01)|(0.03)|(0.04)|(0.02)|(0.07)|(0.06)|
|ln(GDP exporter)|<br>0.59<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.62<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.72<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.59<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.82<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.34<sup>***</sup>|
||(0.01)|(0.04)|(0.06)|(0.02)|(0.07)|(0.08)|
|ln(distance)|<br>-1.56<sup>***</sup>|<br>-1.48<sup>***</sup>|<br>-1.89<sup>***</sup>|<br>-0.61<sup>***</sup>|<br>-0.83<sup>***</sup>|<br>-0.56<sup>***</sup>|
||(0.01)|(0.02)|(0.04)|(0.01)|(0.04)|(0.05)|
|Border|<br>0.73<sup>***</sup>|<br>1.94<sup>***</sup>|<br>1.47<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.58<sup>***</sup>|<br>1.16<sup>***</sup>|<br>1.18<sup>***</sup>|
||(0.02)|(0.05)|(0.05)|(0.02)|(0.07)|(0.07)|
|Common colonizer|<br>0.77<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.29<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.57<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.28<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.05|<br>-0.15<sup>**</sup>|
||(0.01)|(0.03)|(0.05)|(0.03)|(0.07)|(0.08)|
|Common language|<br>0.74<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.71<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.61<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.15<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.53<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.80<sup>***</sup>|
||(0.01)|(0.03)|(0.04)|(0.02)|(0.06)|(0.06)|
|Regional Trade|<br>0.56<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.83<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.94<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.52<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.36<sup>***</sup>|<br>1.17<sup>***</sup>|
|Agreement|||||||
||(0.01)|(0.03)|(0.05)|(0.02)|(0.05)|(0.06)|
|Constant|<br>-4.14<sup>***</sup>|<br>0.28|<br>3.05<sup>***</sup>|<br>-7.72<sup>***</sup>|<br>-3.22<sup>***</sup>|<br>-1.63<sup>**</sup>|
||(0.29)|(0.64)|(0.49)|(0.25)|(0.49)|(0.68)|
|N|<br>496975|<br>91402|<br>30252|<br>994815|<br>258231|<br>69448|
|R2|0.733|0.565|0.596|0.833|0.497|0.665|
|Importer/FE|YES|YES|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|<br>Exporter/FE|YES|YES|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Time/FE|YES|YES|YES|YES|YES|YES|

Standard errors in parentheses<sup>*</sup> _p_ < 0.10,<sup>**</sup> _p_ < 0.05,<sup>***</sup> _p_ < 0.01 Results also show that RTA membership is positively and significantly related to bilateral trade flows over the period 1990-2019. The formation of RTAs, by removing trade barriers - tariff and non-tariff barriers - improves bilateral trade between countries, ceteris paribus.

The implication of the findings from the basic gravity model including the significant role of the high density of economic activity and low distance as well as the role of RECs are important for the strategic prioritization of selected corridors of trade and integration. Because, given that AfCFTA is a continental FTA, it is going to be daunting to think of regional integration on the bigger continental scale. There is a need to strategically prioritize key corridors of trade along proximity in selected corridors in addition to key regions and sub-regions where the density of economic activity is relatively higher. Reflected in this prioritization is the need to build on the already high levels of regional integration either in East, Southern and West Africa, where based on density and proximity, the sub-regional components of AfCFTA can emerge from and provide the springboard to deepen the continental integration. The existing RECs provide the sub-regional foundation to jump-start and deepen regional integration at the continental level. That is why the RECs are central in the success of AfCFTA.

Table 5 presents a summary of the results for the model that identifies the impact of RTAs in the Africa region on trade creation and trade diversion. Overall, African RECs tend to create more 13