Second, there are much larger overlaps in particular regions that are masked at the global level. We find that the overlaps are expected to be largest in Africa for both crops and for livestock, and particularly under SSP4 (Inequality Scenario). While Africa has smaller shares of global production, these regional dynamics have important implications for how we think about food trade, issues of perishability, and access to nutritious food for the most vulnerable. Moreover, the city-level examples in this paper highlight the importance of policy design and solutions at the local level, where the needs and risks would vary.

Third, for crops on aggregate and livestock on aggregate, urban expansion across all SSP scenarios will most likely occur under areas (i.e. grids) today that have higher levels of crop production and that have higher livestock density. This positive correlation between projected future urban expansion and current crop and livestock density is largest under SSP3 (Regional Rivalry Scenario) and smallest under SSP5 (Fossil-fueled Development Scenario). As such, while SSP5 impacts a lower food producing grid on average, it affects more grids in total so that the largest overlap of urban expansion with food production occurs under SSP5. In addition, while the estimated correlation is large and positive in both 2040 and 2100, it is smaller in 2100 than in 2040. That this correlation diminishes over time suggests that (in all SSP scenarios) suggests that urban expansion in the nearer-term (by 2040) will occur in higher food producing areas than the longer-term (by 2100).

The remainder of this paper is as follows. Section 2 discusses data and methodology, including SSPs, urban expansion, and crop and livestock data. Section 3 presents the extent of urban expansion on food production (globally and regionally), and grid-level correlations of urban expansion and food production. Section 4 concludes.

# **2. Data and methodology**

To estimate the relationship of climate-induced urbanization with crop and livestock production, we combine three distinct global spatial datasets— projected urban expansion, crop production, and livestock production— through the process of overlaying them at the grid-level using a mapping software. This allow us to delineate the locations and magnitude of potential urbanization overlap with land used for crop and livestock production, on both a global and regional level. In this case, the potential impact on crop and livestock production is defined as any production located in areas that overlap with future urban expansion.

## **2.1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and urban expansion**

## _SSPs and land use change_

The SSP scenarios depict how underlying determinants (i.e. population growth, urban share of population, and income per capita) affect land use (Riahi et al. 2017). First, under SSP1, cropland is projected to barely expand between 2010 and 2100, while pasture, suitable for livestock grazing, is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, forests and other natural land are projected to expand under SSP1. By contrast, under SSP3, cropland and pasture are projected to increase, while forests and other natural land are projected to dramatically decline. Under SSP5, the rapid economic growth 4