and facilitated the development of information to manage drought risks. Based on these significant advances, Ethiopia is well-placed to further reduce its vulnerability to drought risks.

A key feature in sound and sustainable drought risks management is the ability to respond early. In particular, as this paper showed, the large adverse impacts of droughts are compounded when assistance is provided late. A late response to droughts is associated with reductions in consumption, long-term welfare losses, malnutrition and excess mortality. By using early warning systems to trigger early action, it is possible to reduce the negative impacts of droughts on household welfare, and to protect Ethiopian farmers from the loss of lives and livelihoods.

With the LEAP and LIAS tools, combined with hotspots assessments, Ethiopia has the building blocks for a sound framework for early warning. Based on the LEAP and LIAS tools, it is possible to define early noregrets triggers for the release of the PSNP’s FCB. In particular, the LEAP and LIAS tools produce a range of variables, such as WRSI, yield reduction, and beneficiary numbers that could be used to define early no-regrets triggers. Basing actions during the onset of a drought on clearly defined triggers could lead to an increase in the timeliness of drought response, and would enhance the objectivity and transparency of the process to respond to droughts. For instance, the LEAP tool could be used to produce early warning data as early as August / September during a given calendar year, enabling a drought response by December, thereby protecting lives and livelihoods from the adverse impacts of droughts. The integration of seasonal climate forecasts into LEAP will provide a stronger basis for applying earlier crop production and needs estimates from LEAP.

The GoE and its DPs are continually improving the existing warning tools to address current limitations. For instance, the GoE, ACCRA and Oxfam are jointly developing a tool to estimate need based on _woreda_ risk profiles. Moreover, the NDRMC is working on the development of a multi-sector early warning system based on _woreda_ risk profiles, thereby further enhancing its existing early warning framework. In addition, the existing LEAP tool is being refined to include market data, to incorporate information to predict need in the pastoral regions of Afar, Somali and Borena, and to predict needs associated with flood risks. Similarly, LIAS baselines for the highlands regions are being updated in the course of 2016, to reinitiate the collection of LIAS data; with updated baselines and continued investment in the tool, it would be possible to reinitiate the use of LIAS data as part of seasonal needs assessments. These extensions and improvements will further strengthen Ethiopia’s early warning systems. Moreover, as more and better data become available with time, the predictive accuracy of the LEAP and LIAS tools will be improved further. The LEAP and LIAS tools in combination with hotspots and IPC assessments could be used jointly to trigger early action, where different sources of data could be triangulated to enhance accuracy.

Ethiopia’s current drought response mechanisms are centered on the use of PSNP contingency budgets and the HRD appeals process. The integration between the PSNP’s FCB and HRD Appeal process could be enhanced further by combining fast, early action based on early warning data with a slower response through the HRD process. In particular, approximate early warning-based no-regrets triggers could be used as a mechanism to effectively address needs associated with high-frequency, low-intensity drought events. Early warning data collected during the beginning of a rainy season (for instance, in August / September for the _meher_ season and in April / May for the _belg_ season) could be used to trigger early action, thereby preventing some of the worst impacts of a drought. By contrast, the HRD process could 25