rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Public policy and industrial
            transformation in the process of development
This paper studies the role of public
            policy in promoting industrial transformation from an
            imitationbased, low-skill economy to an innovation-based,
            high-skill economy, where technological progress now occurs
            through the domestic invention of ideas. Industrial
            transformation is measured by changes in an index of
            industrial structure, defined as the ratio of the variety of
            imitation- to innovation-based intermediate goods. A key
            mechanism through which productivity increases initially in
            both the imitation and innovation sectors is through a
            knowledge externality associated with learning by doing in
            the imitation sector. The process of industrialization
            increases the demand for high-skill labor, inducing
            individuals to invest in education. The model also
            emphasizes the distinction between basic or core
            infrastructure, which promotes imitation, and advanced
            infrastructure, which promotes innovation. A calibrated
            version for a low-income country is used to perform several
            policy experiments, including an increase in investment in
            infrastructure, a reduction in the cost of training, and
            improved enforcement of property rights.
Urbanization and poverty reduction
            -- the role of rural diversification and secondary towns
A rather unique panel tracking more than
            3,300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania
            during 1991/4-2010 shows that about one in two
            individuals/households who exited poverty did so by
            transitioning from agriculture into the rural nonfarm
            economy or secondary towns. Only one in seven exited poverty
            by migrating to a large city, although those moving to a
            city experienced on average faster consumption growth.
            Further analysis of a much larger cross-country panel of 51
            developing countries cannot reject that rural
            diversification and secondary town development lead to more
            inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization.
            Indications are that this follows because more of the poor
            find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary
            towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse
            would benefit from shifting beyond the rural-urban dichotomy
            and focusing instead more on how best to urbanize and
            develop the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns.
Eliciting illegal migration rates
            through list randomization
Most migration surveys do not ask about
            the legal status of migrants due to concerns about the
            sensitivity of this question. List randomization is a
            technique that has been used in a number of other social
            science applications to elicit sensitive information. This
            paper trials this technique by adding it to surveys
            conducted in Ethiopia, Mexico, Morocco, and the Philippines.
            It shows how, in principal, this can be used both to give an
            estimate of the overall rate of illegal migration in the
            population being surveyed, as well as to determine illegal
            migration rates for subgroups such as more or less educated
            households. The results suggest that there is some useful
            information in this method: higher rates of illegal
            migration in countries where illegal migration is thought to
            be more prevalent and households who say they have a migrant
            are more likely to report having an illegal migrant.
            Nevertheless, some of the other findings also suggest some
            possible inconsistencies or noise in the conclusions
            obtained using this method. The authors suggest directions
            for future attempts to implement this approach in migration surveys.
Informality and profitability :
            evidence from a new firm survey in Ecuador
This paper estimates the impact of
            informality on firm profits using a new firm-level survey
            designed specifically for this study. The survey was
            administered to about 1,200 firms with 50 employees or less
            in Ecuador's two largest cities, Quito and Guayaquil,
            plus two main centers of economic activity near the northern
            and southern borders. The paper's results confirm that
            the extent of firms' compliance with a set of
            regulatory requirements is linked to the perceived costs and
            benefits of informality, such as the probability of
            detection by the authorities and the likelihood of being
            fined. Nonetheless, taking into account the non-random
            placement of firms along the formality-informality spectrum
            and controlling for a large set of firm, owner, and location
            characteristics, the paper finds that more formal firms tend
            to be more profitable and have higher output per worker.
            This impact operates, inter alia, through more formal
            firms' ability to obtain improved access to credit and
            achieve higher sales by issuing receipts to clients.
Different dreams, same bed :
            collecting, using, and interpreting employment statistics in
            Sub-Saharan Africa -- the case of Uganda
Employment and earnings statistics are
            the key link between the size and structure of economic
            growth and the welfare of households, which is the ultimate
            goal of development policy, so it is important to monitor
            employment outcomes consistently. A cursory review of
            employment data for low-income Sub-Saharan African countries
            shows both large gaps and improbable variation within
            countries over time and among countries, suggesting that low
            quality data are routinely reported by national statistics
            offices. Unfortunately, policies are formed and projects
            developed and implemented on the basis of these statistics.
            Therefore, errors of measurement could be having profound
            implications on the strategic priorities and policies of a
            country. This paper explains the improbable results observed
            by using data from Uganda, where the labor module contains
            variation both within and across surveys, to show the
            sensitivity of employment outcomes to survey methodology. It
            finds that estimates of employment outcomes are unreliable
            if the questionnaire did not use screening questions, as
            labor force participation will be underestimated. Likewise,
            surveys that use a seven-day recall period underestimate or
            potentially misrepresent employment outcomes, owing to
            seasonality and multiple jobs. Common multivariate analysis
            applied on household survey data will be affected, as the
            errors in measurement in the dependent and independent
            variables will be correlated. Corrections to reduce
            measurement bias in existing data are tested with the survey
            data; none are found to be completely satisfactory. The
            paper concludes that there is a knowledge gap about
            employment outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa that will continue
            unless collection techniques improve.
Farther on down the road : transport
            costs, trade and urban growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Transport costs are widely considered an
            important barrier to local economic activity but their
            impact in developing countries is not well-studied. This
            paper investigates the role of inter-city transport costs in
            determining the income of Sub-Saharan African cities, using
            two new data sources. Specifically, it asks how important
            access to a large port city is for the income of hinterland
            cities in 15 countries. Satellite data on lights at night
            proxy for city economic activity, and shortest routes
            between cities are calculated using new road network data.
            Cost per unit of distance is identified by world oil prices.
            The results show that an oil price increase of the magnitude
            experienced between 2002 and 2008 induces the income of
            cities near a major port to increase by 6 percent relative
            to otherwise identical cities 500 kilometers farther away.
            Cities connected to the port by paved roads are chiefly
            affected by transport costs to the port, while cities
            connected to the port by unpaved roads are more affected by
            connections to secondary centers. These are important
            findings for economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa
            since the majority of its population growth over the next
            few decades is expected to be in urban areas.
Trade insulation as social protection
In a world with volatile food prices,
            countries have an incentive to shelter their populations
            from induced real income shocks. When some agents are net
            food producers while others are net consumers, there is
            scope for insurance between the two groups. A domestic
            social protection scheme would therefore transfer resources
            away from the former group to the latter in times of high
            food prices, and do the reverse otherwise. This paper shows
            that in the presence of consumer preference heterogeneity,
            implementing the optimal social protection policy can
            potentially induce higher food price volatility. Such policy
            indeed generates a counter-cyclical demand shock that
            amplifies the effects of the underlying food shortage. The
            results call for a reassessment of food stabilization
            policies. In particular, the authors urge caution against
            the systematic condemnation of trade insulation practices.
Micro dynamics of Turkey's
            export boom in the 2000s
This paper examines the microeconomics
            behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during
            the 2000s. Using disaggregated customs data covering the
            universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period
            2002-2011, it characterizes firm-level dynamics in the
            export sector and decomposes export growth at the aggregate,
            sector, and destination market levels to identify the role
            of firm turnover, destination turnover, and product
            turnover. The paper shows that in the short-run, aggregate
            export growth is dominated by growth in continuous
            exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to
            their continued destinations and of their continued
            products. However, the observed high degree of churning
            across firms, destinations, and products accounts in the
            long run for a substantial part of Turkey's export
            growth. The patterns of micro-dynamics of export growth are
            verified across sectors and across groups of destination
            markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new
            emerging markets where net entry by Turkish-based exporters
            plays a more critical role for long-run growth.
Ensuring robust flood risk
            management in Ho Chi Minh city
Ho Chi Minh City faces significant and
            growing flood risk. Recent risk reduction efforts may be
            insufficient as climate and socio-economic conditions
            diverge from projections made when those efforts were
            initially planned. This study demonstrates how robust
            decision making can help Ho Chi Minh City develop integrated
            flood risk management strategies in the face of such deep
            uncertainty. Robust decision making is an iterative,
            quantitative, decision support methodology designed to help
            policy makers identify strategies that are robust, that is,
            satisfying decision makers' objectives in many
            plausible futures, rather than being optimal in any single
            estimate of the future. This project used robust decision
            making to analyze flood risk management in Ho Chi Minh
            City's Nhieu Loc-Thi Nghe canal catchment area. It
            found that the soon-to-be-completed infrastructure may
            reduce risk in best estimates of future conditions, but it
            may not keep risk low in many other plausible futures. Thus,
            the infrastructure may not be sufficiently robust. The
            analysis further suggests that adaptation and retreat
            measures, particularly when used adaptively, can play an
            important role in reducing this risk. The study examines the
            conditions under which robust decision making concepts and
            full robust decision making analyses may prove useful in
            developing countries. It finds that planning efforts in
            developing countries should at minimum use models and data
            to evaluate their decisions under a wide range of
            conditions. Full robust decision making analyses can also
            augment existing planning efforts in numerous ways.
Global value chains in the
            electronics industry : was the crisis a window of
            opportunity for developing countries
This paper presents evidence of the
            importance of electronics global value chains (GVCs) in the
            global economy, and discusses the effects of the recent
            economic crisis on the industry. The analysis focuses on how
            information is exchanged and introduces the concept of
            "value chain modularity." The authors identify
            three key firm level actors -- lead firms, contract
            manufacturers, and platform leaders -- and discuss their
            development, or "co-evolution" in the context of
            global integration. Company, cluster, and country case
            studies are then presented to illustrate how supplier
            capabilities in various places have developed in the context
            of electronics global value chains. The findings identify
            some of the persistent limits to upgrading experienced by
            even the most successful firms in the developing world. Four
            models used by developing country firms to overcome these
            limitations are presented: (1) global expansion though
            acquisition of declining brands (emerging multinationals);
            (2) separation of branded product divisions from contract
            manufacturing (original design manufacturing (ODM)
            spinoffs); (3) successful mixing of contract manufacturing
            and branded products (platform brands) for contractors with
            customers not in the electronic hardware business; and (4)
            the founding of factory-less product firms that rely on
            global value chains for a range of inputs, including
            production (emerging factory-less start-ups).
Financial protection of the state
            against natural disasters : a primer
This paper has been prepared for policy
            makers interested in establishing or strengthening financial
            strategies to increase the financial response capacity of
            governments of developing countries in the aftermath of
            natural disasters, while protecting their long-term fiscal
            balances. It analyzes various aspects of emergency
            financing, including the types of instruments available,
            their relative costs and disbursement speeds, and how these
            can be combined to provide cost-effective financing for the
            different phases that follow a disaster. The paper explains
            why governments are usually better served by retaining most
            of their natural disaster risk while using risk transfer
            mechanisms to manage the excess volatility of their budgets
            or access immediate liquidity after a disaster. Finally, it
            discusses innovative approaches to disaster risk financing
            and provides examples of strategies that developing
            countries have implemented in recent years.
Islamic vs. conventional banking :
            business model, efficiency and stability
This paper discusses Islamic banking
            products and interprets them in the context of financial
            intermediation theory. Anecdotal evidence shows that many of
            the conventional products can be redrafted as
            Sharia-compliant products, so that the differences are
            smaller than expected. Comparing conventional and Islamic
            banks and controlling for other bank and country
            characteristics, the authors find few significant
            differences in business orientation, efficiency, asset
            quality, or stability. While Islamic banks seem more
            cost-effective than conventional banks in a broad
            cross-country sample, this finding reverses in a sample of
            countries with both Islamic and conventional banks. However,
            conventional banks that operate in countries with a higher
            market share of Islamic banks are more cost-effective but
            less stable. There is also consistent evidence of higher
            capitalization of Islamic banks and this capital cushion
            plus higher liquidity reserves explains the relatively
            better performance of Islamic banks during the recent crisis.
The challenges of bankruptcy reform
The 2008 financial crisis was followed
            by a global economic downturn, credit crunch, and reduction
            in cross-border lending, trade finance, remittances, and
            foreign direct investment, which adversely affected
            businesses around the world. The consequent increase in the
            number of firm insolvencies in the financial and corporate
            sectors highlights the importance of efficient bankruptcy
            laws. This paper summarizes the theoretical and empirical
            literature on bankruptcy design, discusses the challenges of
            introducing and implementing bankruptcy reforms, and
            presents examples of how policymakers are trying to use the
            current economic downturn as an opportunity to engage in
            meaningful reform of the bankruptcy process.
Dealing with politics for money and
            power in infrastructure
Policy recommendations for
            infrastructure provision usually build on a well-established
            understanding of best practice for sector governance. Too
            rarely are they adapted to the country-specific political
            environment even if this is an area where policy choices are
            likely to be subject to private agendas in politics. The
            fact that such private agendas are often ignored goes a long
            way toward explaining why infrastructure policies fail and
            why best practice can be counterproductive. While
            non-benevolence and rent-seeking are well described in the
            literature and anecdotes abound, there is only limited
            consideration of how the different incentive problems in
            politics impede policy improvements in infrastructure. This
            paper addresses why politics in infrastructure cannot be
            ignored, drawing on theoretical results and a systematic
            review of experiences. It reviews how different private
            agendas in politics will have different impacts for
            sector-governance decisions -- and hence service delivery.
            The concept of best practice in policy recommendations
            should be reconsidered in a wide perspective and allow for
            tailored solutions based on an understanding of the given
            incentive problems. Policy recommendations should take into
            account how coordination trade-offs may complicate efforts
            to reduce the possible impact of private agendas on
            infrastructure policy decisions. Although more transparency
            linked to service delivery indicators is a "safe"
            recommendation, it is also clear that the demand for good
            governance will not be sufficient to secure political
            accountability in a sector with huge vested interests
            combined with complicated funding schemes and complex contracts.
Are commodity prices more volatile
            now a long-run perspective
Soaring commodity prices in 2007 and
            2008 raised concerns that volatility was also rising, which
            would have implications for welfare and therefore for the
            design of public policy interventions. The literature
            focuses on trends in commodity prices rather than their
            volatility characteristics. This paper contributes by
            examining commodity price volatility with a newly compiled
            monthly panel dataset on 45 individual commodity prices from
            the end of the 18th century until today. The main
            conclusions are: the timing and number of breaks in
            volatility vary considerably across individual commodities,
            cautioning against generalizations based on the use of
            commodity price indices; the three most significant breaks
            common to most commodities are the two world wars and the
            collapse of the Bretton-Woods system; and structural breaks
            marking increased price volatility are followed by breaks
            marking declines in volatility so that there is no upward or
            downward trend in volatility over time.
Accounting for heterogeneity in
            growth incidence in Cameroon
This paper presents counterfactual
            decompositions based on both the Shapley method and a
            generalization of the Oaxaca-Blinder approach to identify
            proximate factors that might explain differences in the
            distribution of economic welfare in Cameroon in 1996-2007.
            In particular, the analysis uses re-centered influence
            function regressions to link the growth incidence curve for
            2001-2007 to household characteristics and account for
            heterogeneity of impact across quantiles in terms of the
            composition (or endowment) effect and structural (or price)
            effect. The analysis finds that the level of the growth
            incidence curve is explained by the endowment effect while
            its shape is driven by the price effect. Observed gains at
            the bottom of the distribution are due to returns to
            endowments. The rest of the gains are accounted for by the
            composition effect. Further decomposition of these effects
            shows that the composition effect is determined mainly by
            household demographics while the structural effect is shaped
            by the sector of employment and geography. Finally, analysis
            of the rural-urban gap in living standards shows that, for
            the poorest households in both sectors, differences in
            household characteristics matter more than the returns to
            those characteristics. The opposite is true for better-off households.