observe that the estimated marginal effect for the first quarter of 2020 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2017 is negative although only marginally significant. These results suggest that the slackness of the labor market in the first quarter of 2020 may well have contributed to slowing down the employment prospects of jobless individuals.

**<u>Table 8. Employment entry during the onset of COVID pandemic</u>**

|||2019|-2020|2017-|2020|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Year start work||[1]|[2]|[3]|[4]|
||2020|-.045***<br>(.010)|-.046***<br>(.010)|-.017*<br>(.009)|-.016<br>(.009)|
||2019|-|-|.028***|.029***|
|||||(.010)|(.010)|
||2018|-|-|.001|.001|
|||||(.009)|(.009)|
|Fixed effects||-|Yes|-|Yes|
|Observations||3|802|79|42|

Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.), Quarterly Labor Force Survey-LFS (2017 – 2020, 1<sup>st</sup> quarter).

Notes: Reported estimates are average marginal effects drawn from a probit model (the first year serves as the reference category, i.e., 2019 and 2017 in columns 1-2 and 3-4, respectively). Based on the ILO definition of employment, the dependent variable takes the value of 1 if the individual has start working in the current employer during the last 3 months and 0 otherwise. Sample includes all individuals (aged 15-54) who have start working any month during the last 8 quarters (2 years). In all models fixed effects include controls for gender, age, country of birth, education, region. In parentheses, white heteroskedasticity corrected standard errors are reported. All estimates are weighted using the sampling weights provided by the EL.STAT. *** at 1%, ** at 5% and * at 1%.

# **6. Conclusions**

In many respects, Greece has been an interesting case for studying the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts on employment. The virus itself has been controlled well when compared to other countries in Europe and elsewhere in the OECD. To a significant degree, this was due to a stringent lockdown quickly imposed by the government after the first cases were confirmed in late February. Even without widespread contagion, though, the pandemic has had an important economic impact, with GDP expected to decrease as much as 10% in 2020.

The timing of the pandemic and lockdown is also an important part of the Greek story, in two ways. First, COVID-19 arrived at a point when the economy seemed to be finally on a sustainable growth path after the economic crisis that had persisted for the past decade. Second, the lockdown covered a period when the heavily seasonal Greek economy, quite reliant on tourism, would normally be gearing up and creating large numbers of jobs – something that could not happen in the spring of 2020. This is important to keep in mind in order to fully understand how the labor market has been affected by the COVID-19 crisis. A final characteristic of the Greek experience was the government’s decision to mitigate the economic consequences of the crisis by introducing regulatory and income support measures to maintain employment relationships. This has had an important effect on how the lockdown and the reduced labor demand have played out in the labor market.

We use administrative, survey, and online vacancy data to analyze how employment in Greece was affected during the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic and 30