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GDP forecasts are based on the latest forecasts of the EU statistical office (Eurostat) in its "Quarterly National Accounts ESA". In those countries where forecasts are not available, trend analysis and average growth of neighboring countries are used to make the forecasts. Registration forecasts are based on time series analyses, taking into account other factors such as the development of transport volumes and GDP. Transport volumes forecasts are made using NEAC Transport Simulation System which quantifies the relationship between production sectors and the transport they generate, using various economic scenarios, to estimate future transport volumes in and between 176 regions.

# _-_ _<u>Organization for Economic Co operation and Development (OECD)</u>_

A paper _Quantitative Assessment of the Benefits of Trade Facilitation_ by Walkenhorst and Yasui (2003) presented at the 2003 Bangkok APEC Capacity Building Workshop develops two indicators-border process quality and border waiting time- to measure customs efficiency for 102 and 80 countries worldwide, respectively. Indicator of border quality suggests that those countries with higher per capita income generally have superior border process quality than ones with lower levels of per capita income. The border process quality indicator combines four subindicators from three data sources: Global Competitiveness Report, World Competitiveness Yearbook and Compendium of Trade Facilitation Recommendations.

Based on the methodology applied by Wilson, Mann and Otsuki (2003), the survey includes information on the border process environment (customs efficiency, hidden import barriers, administrative integrity), and government commitment toward trade facilitation (based on implementation of nine trade facilitation instruments). The value of the indicator varies from 0.25 to 1.85 implying that the country with the worst indicator value received a score in the rankings that was 75% below average, while the one with the highest value scored 85 percent higher than the average. The Border Waiting Time indicator is constructed by combining Hummel’s (2001) estimate of willingness-to-pay for saving time for shipment and WBES on typical border waiting time.

# _<u>International Road Transport Union (IRU)-Indices on road transport performance</u>_

Border delays are a costly handicap for trade and tourism. IRU provides a web application with up-to-date information on delays for coaches and trucks at principle border crossings in Central and Eastern Europe, which is designed to provide road transport operators with a practical planning aid. It is updated daily from Monday to Friday, using information supplied by IRU national Member Associations.

IRU indices on road transport performance give estimates of Western European countries’ economic growth, truck registration and transport volumes - indicators that are closely followed in the specialized transport and economic press and by transporters who need to follow the various national trends affecting their operations.

For 17 European countries, the IRU compiles road transport indices that give estimates of Western European countries’ economic growth, truck registration and transport volumes 19 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________