rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Import dynamics and demands for protection
What kinds of changes in foreign
            competition lead domestic industries to seek import
            protection? To address this question this paper uses
            detailed monthly U.S. import data to investigate changes in
            import composition during a 24-month window immediately
            preceding the filing of a petition for protection. A
            decomposition methodology allows a comparison of imports
            from two groups of countries supplying the same product:
            those that are named in the petition and those that are not.
            The same decomposition can be applied to products quite
            similar to the imports in question, but not subject to a
            petition. The results suggest that industries typically seek
            protection when faced with a specific pattern of shocks.
            First, a persistent positive relative supply shock favors
            imports from named countries. Second, a negative demand
            shock hits imports from all sources just prior to domestic
            industries' petition for protection. The relative
            supply shock is a broad one; it applies both to named
            commodities and to the comparison product group. The import
            demand shock, by contrast, is narrow, hitting only named
            products. The latter shock is also large: import growth over
            the two-year window is 15 percentage points lower in named
            products than in reference products, with most of this gap
            arising in the final two quarters before the petition. The
            negative import demand shock appears to be a key event in
            the run-up to the filing of a petition. It has been missed
            by previous studies using more aggregated data.
Pathways from jobs to social cohesion
There is growing recognition that access
            to good jobs is an important driver of social cohesion.
            While economic dimensions of labor market outcomes are
            relatively well documented, evidence on the link between
            social cohesion and jobs is still surprisingly scarce. This
            paper, based on an earlier background report for the WDR
            2013, presents empirical evidence for pathways between labor
            market outcomes and social cohesion. The findings indicate
            that formal employment is associated with a range of social
            outcomes and behaviors that are typically associated with
            higher levels of social cohesion. However, there are also
            indications that this relationship varies across dimensions
            of social wellbeing. In particular social interactions and
            political activism among those in regular employment can
            either improve the quality of aggregate institutions or
            deepen existing social divides.
Pension risk and risk-based
            supervision in defined contribution pension funds
Defined contribution pension systems
            have faced criticism in the wake of the financial and
            economic crisis for not delivering adequate and sustainable
            pension incomes at retirement. Much of the problem has
            centered around the misalignment of pension fund management
            companies and the interests of pension fund members, with
            the focus on short-term volatility rather than delivering
            adequate pension income over the long term. Although pension
            fund supervisors in emerging economies have attempted to
            correct for these market failures, they have not focused
            sufficiently on the ultimate long-term pension income
            objective. The paper suggests that in order to have a
            meaningful impact on future pensions, the supervision of
            defined contribution pension systems needs to take a more
            proactive role in minimizing pension risk. This objective
            would require ensuring that investment risks are aligned
            with the probability of achieving a target pension at
            retirement age. The paper also suggests that a proper
            institutional design of the pension fund industry and
            intensive use of market surveillance are efficient tools for
            dealing with most of the operational risks of funded pension
            fund schemes in emerging economies.
Estimating the economic opportunity
            cost of capital for public investment projects : an
            empirical analysis of the Mexican case
This paper offers an assessment of the
            methodologies employed to estimate the economic opportunity
            cost of capital for public sector projects, relying on the
            Mexican case for an applied empirical exercise. The
            traditional weighted cost of capital (top-down) approach
            used in the estimation of Mexico's economic opportunity
            cost of capital is reviewed and compared to the supply price
            (bottom-up) approach. With respect to previous studies using
            the top-down approach, this paper explores the contribution
            of domestic savings and expands the analysis to include a
            more detailed examination of the available macroeconomic,
            labor, financial, and tax information. The re-estimated
            top-down economic opportunity cost of capital for Mexico
            comes to 10.4 percent. To confirm these results and provide
            additional insights regarding the alternative bottom-up
            approach, the economic opportunity cost of capital is
            estimated using the supply price plus externalities method.
            For the case of Mexico, this paper recommends using a
            combination of estimation models (both the top-down and
            bottom-up approaches) to check the consistency of results
            and re-estimating the economic opportunity cost of capital
            every five years to accommodate for macroeconomic and fiscal
            changes. More broadly, the paper acknowledges the
            complexities involved in the estimation of the economic
            opportunity cost of capital for public investment projects
            and underlines the relevance of additional considerations,
            such as changes in global economic trends and country risk
            ratings, tax distortions, financial sector improvements, the
            impact of reforms, and data availability.
Convergence to the managerial frontier
Using detailed survey data on management
            practices, this paper uses recent advances in unconditional
            quantile analysis to study the changes in the within country
            distribution of management quality associated with country
            convergence to the managerial frontier. It then decomposes
            the contribution of potential explanatory factors to the
            distributional changes. The United States emerges as the
            frontier country, not because of better management on
            average, but because its best firms are far better than
            those of its close competitors. Part of the process of
            convergence to the frontier across the development process
            represents a trimming of the left tail, much is movement of
            the central mass and, for rich countries, it is actually the
            best firms that lag the frontier benchmark.   Among
            potential explanatory variables that may drive convergence,
            ownership and human capital appear critical, the former
            especially for poorer countries and that latter for richer
            countries suggesting that the mechanics of convergence
            change across the process. These variables lose their
            explanatory power as firm and average country management
            quality rises.  Hence, once in the advanced country range,
            the factors that improve management quality are less easy to
            document and hence influence.
Unconventional monetary policy
            normalization in high-income countries : implications for
            emerging market capital flows and crisis risks
As the recovery in high-income countries
            firms amid a gradual withdrawal of extraordinary monetary
            stimulus, developing countries can expect stronger demand
            for their exports as global trade regains momentum, but also
            rising interest rates and potentially weaker capital
            inflows. This paper assesses the implications of a
            normalization of policy and activity in high-income
            countries for financial flows and crisis risks in developing
            countries. In the most likely scenario, a relatively orderly
            process of normalization would imply a slowdown in capital
            inflows amounting to 0.6 percent of developing-country GDP
            between 2013 and 2016, driven in particular by weaker
            portfolio investments. However, the risk of more abrupt
            adjustments remains significant, especially if increased
            market volatility accompanies the unwinding of unprecedented
            central bank interventions. According to simulations, abrupt
            changes in market expectations, resulting in global bond
            yields increasing by 100 to 200 basis points within a couple
            of quarters, could lead to a sharp reduction in capital
            inflows to developing countries by between 50 and 80 percent
            for several months. Evidence from past banking crises
            suggests that countries having seen a substantial expansion
            of domestic credit over the past five years, deteriorating
            current account balances, high levels of foreign and
            short-term debt, and over-valued exchange rates could be
            more at risk in current circumstances. Countries with
            adequate policy buffers and investor confidence may be able
            to rely on market mechanisms and countercyclical
            macroeconomic and prudential policies to deal with a
            retrenchment of foreign capital. In other cases, where the
            scope for maneuver is more limited, countries may be forced
            to tighten fiscal and monetary policy to reduce financing
            needs and attract additional inflows.
Post-harvest loss in Sub-Saharan
            Africa -- what do farmers say
The 2007-2008 global food crisis has
            renewed interest in post-harvest loss, but estimates remain
            scarce, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper uses
            self-reported measures from nationally representative
            household surveys in Malawi, Uganda, and Tanzania. Overall,
            on-farm post-harvest loss adds to 1.4-5.9 percent of the
            national maize harvest, substantially lower than the Food
            and Agriculture Organization's post-harvest handling
            and storage loss estimate for cereals, which is 8 percent.
            Post-harvest loss is concentrated among less than a fifth of
            households. It increases with humidity and temperature and
            declines with better market access, post-primary education,
            higher seasonal price differences, and possibly improved
            storage practices. Wider use of nationally representative
            surveys in studying post-harvest loss is called for.
Can Latin America tap the
            globalization upside
This paper discusses the theoretical
            arguments in favor of and against economic globalization
            and, with a view to ascertaining whether Latin America may
            be able to capture the globalization upside, examines the
            trends and salient features of Latin America's
            globalization as compared with that of Southeast Asia. The
            paper focuses on trade and financial integration as well as
            the aggregate demand structures (domestic demand-driven
            versus external demand-driven) that underpin the
            globalization process. It finds that Latin America is
            mitigating some bad side effects of financial globalization
            by moving toward a safer form of international financial
            integration and improving its macro-financial policy
            frameworks. Nonetheless, Latin America's progress in
            raising the quality of its international trade integration
            has been scant. The region's commodity-heavy trade
            structures and relatively poor quality of trade connectivity
            can hinder growth potential to the extent that they are less
            conducive to technology and learning spillovers. Moreover,
            Latin America's domestic demand-driven growth pattern
            (a reflection of relatively low domestic savings) may become
            an additional drag to growth by accentuating the risk of a
            low savings-low external competitiveness trap.
Learning from financial crises
This paper considers the question of
            whether international banks learn from their previous crisis
            experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries
            in the event of a financial crisis. The analysis combines a
            bank-level dataset of bank activity and ownership with
            country-level data on the stock of historical crisis events
            between 1800 and 2005. To circumvent selection and
            endogeneity concerns, the paper exploits temporal variations
            in the relative recency of crises as instruments for crisis
            experience. The results indicate that foreign banks with
            greater crisis experience reduced their lending
            significantly more relative to other foreign banks, which
            can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a learning
            effect. The findings survive robustness checks that include
            alternative measures of crisis experience, additional
            controls, and decompositions into different types of crises.
            The question of learning is also examined from the
            perspective of other measures of bank performance.
Why liquidity matters to the export
            decision of the firm
Under financial constraints, exporting
            may have less to do with productivity and more to do with
            financial resources. The established relationship between
            exporting and productivity would differ when examined
            through the lens of the working capital needs of the firm.
            The hypothesis that working capital matters in the
            firm's exporting decision is explored in two ways:
            first, by articulating a dynamic working capital model of
            the firm that incorporates the firm's export decision.
            Secondly, by testing the hypothesis empirically using a
            unique firm level dataset from Bangladesh, where issues of
            financial constraints are particularly acute. The model
            shows that productivity determines export status of the firm
            as long as it is not under financial constraints. However,
            under financial constraints, export status is less dependent
            on productivity and more dependent on the availability of
            working capital. Empirical results support the model's
            prediction. The relationship between exporting time and the
            need for greater liquidity is also borne out empirically as
            shown by a positive and significant correlation between the
            amount of working capital and the distance of export
            destination. An important policy implication from the
            analysis is that short term liquidity is critical in
            allowing productive firms to export and that access to
            finance may prevent the benefits of trade liberalization
            within a country to be fully realized.
Technical measures to trade in
            Central America : incidence, price effects, and consumer welfare
Despite the widespread tariff reductions
            sparked by the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade
            Agreement, borders in the region remain thick, with many
            hurdles standing in the way of regional trade. Although
            anecdotal evidence suggests that nontariff measures raise
            trade costs and inhibit trade in the region, little is known
            about the magnitude of these economic effects. This paper
            uses a newly collected data set to quantify the incidence of
            sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers
            to trade in the region and benchmarks it with other parts of
            the world. The results indicate that the Central American
            region has the lowest prevalence of technical nontariff
            measures in the world. However, there is significant
            heterogeneity of trade-related regulations in Central
            America; for instance, 48 percent of Salvadoran imports are
            subject to at least one nontariff measure, compared with
            just 16 percent of Honduran imports. The paper estimates the
            impact of these technical measures on border prices and
            finds that the price impact of sanitary and phytosanitary
            measures is equivalent to an ad-valorem tariff of 11.6
            percent. This price-rising effect is further investigated by
            looking in detail at the impact of sanitary and
            phytosanitary measures on the prices of beef, chicken meat,
            bread, and dairy products in Guatemala. The impact is
            estimated to be equivalent to an ad-valorem tariff of 68.4
            percent, 51.4 percent, 22.0 percent, and 5.0 percent,
            respectively. The paper shows that efforts to streamline key
            sanitary and phytosanitary measures affecting these products
            by, for example, reducing the cost and time required to
            obtain sanitary registries, would likely reduce the
            Guatemalan urban extreme poverty rate from 5.07 percent to
            4.91 percent.
Revenue potential, tax space, and
            tax gap : a comparative analysis
This paper contributes to the empirical
            literature on the key determinants of the revenue generating
            potential in 61 countries. The paper uses a broad set of
            data and econometric methods to conduct analyses that are of
            relevance to revenue potential. Earlier studies have not
            distinguished between the revenue potential based on
            economic fundamentals of countries and that based on what
            the legal framework prescribes. This study uses a dual
            approach to revenue potential to examine the issue. Two sets
            of variables are used, one related to the intrinsic economic
            structure and strength of countries that affect revenue
            potential and the other related to tax policy variables.
            Accordingly the analysis finds two sets of revenue
            potentials: one can be termed "revenue potential
            (economic)," and the other "revenue potential
            (legal)." The difference between the revenue potential
            (legal) and the actual revenue collected is commonly
            understood as the "tax gap." The difference
            between the revenue potential (economic) and the actual
            revenue collected can be termed the "tax space,"
            the amount of revenue that a country can afford to collect,
            given its economic strength, not based on what the
            parliament has mandated. The results show that legally
            mandated revenue potentials in countries in Eastern Europe
            and Central Asia are often higher than the revenue potential
            based on what the country's economic fundamentals can
            afford.  The paper also makes use of a tax effort index and
            finds that although many countries are performing close to
            the revenue potential (economic), it is more difficult to
            match up to the revenue potential (legal). The relationship
            between the revenue potential and the shadow economy, value
            added tax productivity, and some other determinants are
            examined to test whether some countries are taxing beyond
            their means.
Converting land into affordable
            housing floor space
Cities emerge from the spatial
            concentration of people and economic activities. But spatial
            concentration is not enough; the economic viability of
            cities depends on people, ideas, and goods to move rapidly
            across the urban area. This constant movement within dense
            cities creates wealth but also various degrees of
            unpleasantness and misery that economists call negative
            externalities, such as congestion, pollution, and
            environmental degradation. In addition, the poorest
            inhabitants of many cities are often unable to afford a
            minimum-size dwelling with safe water and sanitation, as if
            the wealth created by cities was part of a zero-sum game
            where the poor will be at the losing end. The main challenge
            for urban planners and economists is reducing cities'
            negative externalities without destroying the wealth created
            by spatial concentration. To do that, they must plan and
            design infrastructure and regulations while leaving intact
            the self-organizing created by land and labor markets. The
            balance between letting markets work and correcting market
            externalities through infrastructure investment and
            regulation is difficult to achieve. Too often, planners play
            sorcerer's apprentice when dealing with markets whose
            functioning they poorly understand. The role of the urban
            planner is then, first, to better understand the complex
            interaction between market forces and government
            interventions, infrastructure investment and regulation, and
            second, to design these interventions based on precise
            quantitative objectives. Each city's priorities would
            depend on its history, circumstances, and political
            environment. But maintaining mobility and keeping land
            affordable remains the main urban planning objective common
            to all cities.