associated with an increase in adverse health outcomes for mothers and children (Mahy, 2003; Stover and Ross, 2010). Both within SSA and beyond, policymakers’ attempts to curb high fertility rates through family planning programs have had only modest impacts (Pitt et al., 1993). Miller (2010) finds that family planning explains less than 10% of Colombia’s fertility decline during its demographic transition, while Pritchett and Summers (1994)’s cross-country analysis suggests that desired levels of fertility account for 90 percent of differences across countries in total fertility rates.

In the five countries covered in this study, at the country-level, total fertility rates (TFRs) range from 4.0 in Rwanda to 4.8 in Benin. Within these and most African countries, however, there are marked urban-rural fertility differentials, with differences in fertility rates between the capital cities and rural areas commonly on the order of 2 to 3 children (Lesthaeghe, 2014). In the five countries we study, rural, poorer, and less educated women have higher fertility and higher desired fertility (Ghana Statistical Service and ICF, 2014; Ministry of Planning, Development and Territorial Development, Ministry of Health and ICF, 2015; Ethiopia Central Statistical Agency and ICF, 2016; INSAE and ICF, 2019; Ethiopian Public Health Institute and ICF, 2021; NISR Rwanda, Ministry of Health Rwanda, and ICF, 2021). While we do not have data on the fertility preferences of the women in our study sample, we do have nationally representative data from the most recent rounds of the DHS surveys. When comparing the TFR to women’s ideal family size in these five countries, looking at rural and urban areas separately, the TFR exceeds women’s ideal family size in all cases except for in urban Ethiopia, urban Ghana, and urban Rwanda. Moreover, men’s ideal family size exceeds that of women’s in four of the five countries. Details on fertility and desired fertility rates in our five study countries can be found in Appendix Table A1.

# **2.2 Conceptual Framework**

Our study fits within the literatures on the roles of income, wealth, and property rights in influencing fertility outcomes.

## **2.2.1 Income and fertility**

The first generation of economic theories on fertility was developed in order to explain the empirical negative relationship between fertility and income observed in Western countries. The industrialization that began in the 19th century was followed by a demographic transition, and since then, cross-sectional, cross-country, and time series analysis have shown a strong inverse relationship between fertility and income (Jones and Tertilt, 2008; Jones et al., 2008; Doepke et al., 2023). Unless we consider children as an inferior good, this negative correlation appears puzzling. Becker (1960) introduced the first major theory of fertility with a quantity-quality tradeoff model. In this framework, the household represents a homogeneous decision unit that maximizes its utility under budget and time constraints. Under this model, the household utility function depends on consumption, the number of children and the quality of children. Child quality results from various parental investments, especially in education. These investments increase with parents’ income, which in turn increase the cost of children. Consequently, fertility is decreasing in income. Even though children are a normal good in this model, the substitution effect dominates the revenue effect. Fol6