rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
# **4.  Empirical Applications**

I next demonstrate the quantitative importance for inference of prior uncertainty about exclusion restrictions in three well-known empirical studies that use linear instrumental variables models. Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001, hereafter AJR) study the causal effects of institutions on economic development. Using a sample of 64 former colonies, they regress the logarithm of GDP per capita on a measure of property rights protection. They propose using historical data on mortality rates experienced by settlers during the colonial period as a novel instrument for institutional quality. AJR argue that in areas where settlers experienced high mortality rates, colonial powers had few incentives to set up institutions that protect property rights and provide a foundation for subsequent economic activity. In a simple bivariate specification there are a number of obvious concerns regarding the validity of the exclusion restriction that settler mortality rates matter for development only through their effects on institutional quality. Historical settler mortality rates might be correlated with the tropical location and intrinsic disease burden of a country, and these factors may matter directly for modern development. AJR seek to address such concerns in their paper through the addition of various control variables to capture these effects. For example, we will show results using one of their core specifications in which they control for latitude to capture such locational effects (Table 4, Column 2 in AJR). And in the paper they also present a wide range results with direct controls for location and the disease burden.<sup>9</sup> Nevertheless, a reader of AJR might reasonably entertain some doubts as to whether the exclusion restriction holds exactly even in these extended specifications. There are many potential correlates of settler mortality rates that might in turn be correlated with development outcomes. For example, Glaeser et. al. (2004) argue that low settler mortality rates may have operated through investments in human capital rather than institutions to protect property rights. Here we do not take any stand as to

> 9 Ideally I would like to use one of AJR's specifications with a more complete set of control variables to illustrate the effects of uncertainty about exclusion restrictions.  However, in many of their specifications with more control variables, their instruments are much weaker, and I do not want to conflate my point about uncertainty regarding exclusion restrictions with the well-known concerns with weak instruments.  For example, in Columns (7) and (8) of Table 4, AJR introduce continent dummies, and continent dummies together with latitude.  In these specifications, I find first-stage F-statistics on the excluded instrument of 6.83 and 3.97, well below the Staiger and Stock (1997) rule of thumb of 10.  This suggests that the settler mortality instrument does not have sufficiently strong explanatory power within geographic regions.

26
Although early exporters ranked the usefulness of collective marketing support relatively highly, Table IV.5 indicates that a higher proportion of late exporters than early exporters report ever using individual collective marketing -services. There is also a clear difference in the usefulness of these services. In this sector, import-export agencies, international bidding, and joint venture technology ties consistently receive relatively high usefulness ratings while information, introduction of foreign buyers, distribution of promotional materials abroad, and attendance at foreign trade fairs receive relatively low ratings. KTC was used by only one of 12 SME auto parts exporters who evaluated it highly. The industry association and KOTRA each were used by four fis, but evaluated less highly.

Electronic **Parts and** Components. The electronic parts sector shows a relatively high export propensity. Almost three quarters of the sample electronics parts makers in our sample were exporting by 1986, and more than half of these exported at least 70 percent of total sales. Earlier exporters tend to make parts for consumer electronics while more recent exporters make parts for industrial electronics.

Table IV.6 shows that first-time electronics parts exporters rated collective marketing support more highly than SME exporters in any other sector, while foreign buyers ranked relatively low. This is consistent with the considerable change in product mix, technological complexity, and market niche common in this sector, which would seem to require more complex marketing rer-zements and more marketing support. Conversely, first-time exporters in this sector do not rely heavily on their own efforts or direct contacts with foreign buyers. As in other sectors, however, the relative importance of both direct efforts and foreign buyers increases as firms gain exportng experience, while the importance of collective marketing support gradually declines. Also as in other sec.ors, long-time (early) exporters and larger exporters rate collective support and foreign buyers as relatively important. Although subconracting is relatively important for both early and late exporters, there is less difference between its importance in the current period than at first export, when smaller first-time exporters rely more heavily on subcontracting as an export channel. Table IV.7 confirms the relatively high importance of collective marketing support for both early and late exporters in this sector. The collective 27
21 became more unbalanced during the genocide: The mean sex ratio over all age groups of the sample is 0.95 in 1992 and 0.85 in 2000. In other words, a shortage of potential partners in a woman’s cohort and province significantly reduces the number of children born both before and after the genocide.

Both results indicate that fertility is strongly linked with gender roles and partnership and that sexual activity outside of marriage did not become more common after the genocide. Thus, a relative shortage of men in a given province correlates with a lower number of unions. It appears as if there are divergent trends for two groups of women. On the one hand, it seems that fertility among married women before and after the genocide remained unchanged with married women continuing to have many children. One may speculate that the high fertility after the genocide relates to the competition for marriageable partners. This may encourage married women to conform to the ideal female role model in Rwanda by becoming a mother of a large family (Jefremovas 1991; UNICEF 1997). A similar pattern – a local shortage of men causing a stricter gendered division of labor in household tasks – is found to influence intra-household time allocation patterns in Rwandan households (Schindler 2010). Another reason may be that, despite the genocide, the basic incentives for having large families in agricultural production and in providing old age security persisted in Rwanda, thus maintaining material benefits for parents of larger families. On the other hand, an increasing number of women are without partners in the post-genocide period. These women (and especially widows) have lower fertility levels, which may render them vulnerable at old age.

Most of the standard variables predicted by the literature to determine fertility have the expected signs. Fertility in the short term is strongly correlated with the number of children previously born. Also the sex of children matters: One additional son (SONNUMSHORT) changes the fertility rate in the short term by factor exp(-0.05) = 0.95, while one additional daughter (DAUGHTNUMSHORT) changes the fertility rate by factor exp(-0.08) = 0.92. Surprisingly, education (PRIMEDU, SECEDU) does not have a significant effect on fertility in the early post-war period. This result fits empirical evidence from other early post-war economies where education played a minor role in driving post-war socio-economic outcomes at the micro-level (e.g. Bozzoli and Brück 2009). In line with expectations, household wealth (WEALTHFUL) significantly decreases fertility. Being currently in union (INUNION) and living in a more densely populated province (PODENSITY) significantly increases fertility in the short term. Child mortality at the district level (DCHILDMORT) – one of the few exogenous measures of the health infrastructure that can be constructed from RDHS data – does not significantly affect fertility. Women living in cities (URBAN) do not have
# Table of Contents

|||PageNo.|
|---|---|---|
|I.|INTRODUCTION ........||
|II.|THEORETICAL MODEL<br>................|9|
|111.|ECONOMETRIC MODEL ..........<br>..<br>..............|18|
||Translog Specification of Cost Function ........<br>..........|18|
||Scale Economies<br>.........|21|
||Own, Cross-Price, and Substitution Elasticities ......<br>.........|22|
||Shadow Prices of Electricity Inputs .......<br>..<br>............|23|
|IV.|ESTIMATION RESULTS .........<br>..<br>...............|25|
||The Nigerian Sample .............................|25|
||The Indonesian Sample .............<br>...............|25|
||The Thai Sample ...............................|25|
||Estimation of the Nigerian Embedded Cost Function ....<br>.....|.<br>26|
||Estimation of the Indonesian Embedded Cost Function ...<br>.....|.<br>29|
||Declining Block Tariffs for Bought Electricity ......<br>........|31|
||Estimation of the Primary Cost Function for Nigeria and Indonesia|.<br>32|
||Estimation of the Unrestricted Primary Cost Function for Thailand|. .<br>42|
|V.|!CONCLUSIONS<br>................................|<br>47|
In conclusion, access to finance and its determinants have been studied in reasonable depth in the literature, and multiple sources emphasize the importance of collateral requirements in obtaining external finance. Despite this progress, the overall allocative efficiency of loans is under-studied. Most research on financial allocations is concerned with the issues of financial deepening versus allocation and the impact thereof. Our paper is concerned with the extent of misallocations in access to finance for establishments across India and how this misallocation is deepened due to inefficient allocation of land. We correlate this misallocation in access to external finance with that found in Duranton et al. (2015) on misallocation in ownership and use of land and buildings, since the latter asset works as collateral in appropriating access to finance.

In conducting this work, we are also mindful that there could be reverse causality as well. For instance, literature suggests that inefficiencies in access to finance could also lead to distortions in factor markets such as land, labor, or other productive inputs. Said differently, without access to finance, a business may inefficiently alter its use of land for production, rather than vice versa. Likewise, lower access to credit markets can push firms experiencing a negative shock to exploit other mechanisms, such as liquidating assets with high long-term returns, to resolve their financing problems (Barrett, 2007). Below, we consider an instrumentation strategy to help with these issues, recognizing our assembled evidence is not yet foolproof in this regard.

# **3. Data**

We use the same firm-level information as much of the prior research on the Indian economy, including Ghani et al. (2014) and Duranton et al. (2015), which this section builds on.

This project draws upon five surveys from two major sources of data: the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) and National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO). ASI is a survey of the organized sector undertaken annually by the Central Statistical Organization, a department in the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, Government of India. Under the Indian Factory Act of 1948, all establishments employing more than 20 workers without using power or 10 employees using power are required to be registered with the Chief Inspector of Factories in 11
collateral requirements for larger loans and encouraged collateral-free loans up to Rs 5 million (IFC, 2017).<sup>25</sup> But there is no blueprint for such support to enterprises - policy measures to support SMEs are highly dependent on country circumstances. First, the scope, the choice, design, and implementation of SME-support instruments depend on (pre)existing constraints firms face as well as the government’s ability to deliver support (see Figure 9 for an illustration). For instance, in countries with limited fiscal space firms that have liquidity pressures can be supported through umbrella guarantees and loans by public banks. In countries with ample fiscal space, support measures could include tax relief, wage subsidies, and direct loans for enterprises that have liquidity constraints; and equity injections and/or grants for firms that have issues servicing their debt.

**Table 1. Support schemes for SMEs – number of instruments by type of support**

||Low-<br>income|Lower-<br>middle<br>income|Upper-<br>middle<br>income|High-<br>income|Total of<br>instruments|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Debt finance|6|99|153|170|428_(38.87%)_|
|Employment support|1|24|71|172|268_(24.34%)_|
|Tax|3|62|79|72|216_(19.62%)_|
|Business costs|1|12|32|26|71_(6.45%)_|
|Other finance||4|14|29|47_(4.27%)_|
|Demand|1|10|11|6|28_(2.54%)_|
|Business climate||9|10|8|27_(2.45%)_|
|Business advice|||2|14|16_(1.45%)_|
|Total of instruments|12|220|372|497|1,101|
|_Number of countries_<br>_with support measures_|7<br>_(22.58%)_|26<br>_(55.32%)_|41<br>_(68.33%)_|50<br>_(62.5%)_|124<br>_(57.88%)_|
|_Total number of_<br>_countries_|_31_|_47_|_60_|_80_|_218_|

Source: World Bank Group, Map of SME-Support Measure in Response to COVID-19. <u>https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2020/04/14/map-of-sme-support-measures-in-response-to-covid19</u> Note: In the last column, figures in brackets represent the percentage of each type of support in the total of support measures. Figures in brackets in the second last row represent the percentage of low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income countries that adopted support measures. The different instruments in each type of support used by countries are presented in the annex.

> 25 From the Financial Services to MSMEs notes in the document “Government policy responses to support the private sector” (Aijazuddin& Savonitto, 2020).  Original Source: IFC MSME Finance Gap Report, 2017).

17
Croke et al. (2016) additional data or contacting the original authors to obtain additional information.<sup>3</sup> Additionally, in three cases, the updated analysis includes improved estimates, for example, by obtaining information on intra-cluster correlation directly from the original study authors rather than by imputing data from other studies.

With the full data set, the hypothesis of a common zero effect of multiple-dose deworming on weight is rejected with p<0.001. With the TMSDG sample, this hypothesis is rejected at the 10% level, but applying either a study classification approach used in the previous 2012 Cochrane Review or a study classification approach used in earlier Cochrane Reviews leads to rejection with p<0.01.<sup>4</sup> Any one of five other individual updates to the TMSDG data leads to rejection of the null hypothesis of a common zero effect at the 5% level.

Using our updated sample, and following TMSDG in including studies from lowprevalence environments where the WHO does not recommend MDA, mass deworming is estimated to increase child weight by 0.134 kg (95% CI: 0.031,0.236; p=0.01; random effects estimation). This effect remains robust (at p<0.05) when any individual trial estimate is dropped from the meta-analysis. The result is also nearly unchanged even when simultaneously dropping any two of the 22 estimates: among the 231 possible combinations of two studies that could be dropped simultaneously, in 96% of cases the estimated effect remains statistically significant at p<0.05, and the largest p-value is just 0.067. In areas with prevalence above 20%, where the WHO recommends MDA, the average estimated impact on child weight is 0.148 kg (CI: 0.039,0.258; p=0.008; random

> 3 In several cases we received data from the Campbell Collaboration deworming team, who had themselves directly contacted the original authors. See Appendix A for details on the source of all studies included in our sample.

> 4 See section 5.1 for more detailed discussion of these study classification issues.

5
order to make it possible to compare results from Southern Sudan to other countries.<sup>6</sup> The core set of questions, as well as the special set of questions for each month are provided in Annex B.

# **4. Results**

## **<mark>Table 3: SSEPS Sample Characteristics</mark>**

## _Sample Characteristics_

|**Characteristic**|**N**<br>**1**|**Mean**<br>**2**|
|---|---|---|
|Gender: Female(%)|1004|62.5|
|Gender: Male(%)|1004|37.5|
|Age(years)|975|33.6|
|Age: Under-20(%)|975|7.2|
|Age: 20-29(%)|975|34.8|
|Age: 30-39(%)|975|30.9|
|Age: 40-49(%)|975|15.6|
|Age: 50plus(%)|975|8.9|
|Language: Arabic(%)|1007|44.4|
|Language: Dinka(%)|1007|37.4|
|Language: Nuer(%)|1007|8.8|
|Language: English(%)|1007|9.3|
|Top-upvalue: 5 SDG(%)|1007|51.9|
|Top-upvalue: 10 SDG(%)|1007|48.1|
|Phone Type: Nokia(%)|1007|52.5|
|Phone Type: Solar(%)|1007|47.5|
|Alternativephone available(%)|1007|36.6|
|Preferred call time: morning (%)|1007|57.9|
|Preferred call time: afternoon(%)|1007|17.3|
|Preferred call time: evening (%)|1007|24.8|
|Town of residence: AWEIL(%)|1007|11.3|
|Town of residence: BENTIU(%)|1007|7.5|
|Town of residence: BOR(%)|1007|11.6|
|Town of residence: JUBA(%)|1007|9.7|
|Town of residence: KWAJOK(%)|1007|8.1|
|Town of residence: MALAKAL(%)|1007|9.8|
|Town of residence: RUMBEK(%)|1007|10.0|
|Town of residence: TORIT(%)|1007|10.6|
|Town of residence: WAU(%)|1007|10.2|
|s resonse rates were hih: 84 ercen<br>Town of residence: YAMBIO(%)<br>_1N = Observations with non-missing values_<br>_2N = Unweighted_|in Dec<br>1007|mber<br>10.9|

Table 3 displays key characteristics of the sample of SSEPS participants. Sampled participants were disproportionately female, averaged 34 years of age at the time of the household visit (two-thirds of participants were between the age of 20 and 40), and primarily requested interviews in Arabic or Dinka. Thirty-six percent of respondents had access to another mobile phone.

## _Response Rates and Attrition_

At the end of the first round of data collection in December 2010, 68 percent of SSEPS participants completed the mobile-phone administered questionnaire. Overall response rates declined to 62 percent in January, 55 percent in February, and 52 percent in March (Table 4 and Figure 3). Both the level and trend of response rates varied substantially across town of residence (Figure 4). In Wau, for example, although response rates declined with each successive round, relative to other towns, response rates were high: 84 percent in December

> 6 The reference period for the Afrobarometer questions is one year. Because the survey was conducted on a monthly basis, a one-month reference period was of greater interest for the time series data. For this reason, in December 2010 the poverty and security questions were asked with _both_ a one-year and a one-month reference period. In subsequent months, they were asked with only a one-month reference period. The outlook questions are only asked with a one-year reference period.

10
Policy Research Working Paper 8405

# **Abstract**

This paper uses issuance-level data to study how equity capital inflows that enter emerging market economies affect equity issuance and corporate investment. It shows that foreign inflows are strongly correlated with country-level issuance. The relation especially reflects the behavior of large firms, defined as those with large market value of equity. To identify supply-side shocks, capital inflows into each country are instrumented with exogenous changes in other countries’ attractiveness to foreign investors. Shifts in the supply of foreign capital are important drivers of increased equity inflows. Instrumented contemporaneous and lagged capital inflows lead large firms to raise new equity, which they use to fund investment. The results indicate that inflows imply more than a transfer of equity ownership from domestic to foreign investors. Foreign purchases of equity have financial and real consequences for firms.

This paper is a product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/research. The authors may be contacted at cc374@columbia.edu, mauricio.larrain@uc.cl, and sschmukler@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
WPS3467

# **ECONOMIC GROWTH, INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND POVERTY IN POLAND DURING TRANSITION**

## **Pierella Paci**<sup>**a**</sup> **Marcin J. Sasin**<sup>**b**</sup> **and Jos Verbeek**<sup>**c**</sup>

#### **Abstract ***

This paper attempts to analyze the linkages between macroeconomic policies and economic growth variables, their movement over time, and their impact on poverty in the case of Poland. Poland, a middle-income country, is of particular interest because its data sources allow for a relatively detailed analysis of such developments, but also because of macroeconomic environment and the economic growth variables show a relatively sizable degree of variance. In addition, Poland has struggled in the last few years to reduce poverty while still experiencing positive economic growth. The paper will show that in Poland poverty-reducing growth depends heavily on the ability of the economy to generate jobs. During the early years of transition, net job growth was positive, but after the Russian crisis of 1998, productivity gains were accomplished mostly through labor shedding, consequently increasing poverty in Poland. In addition, the paper identifies how fiscal and social protection policies impact Poland’s income distribution and poverty trends.

### World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3467, December 2004

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org_ .

____________________________

> *  This paper was presented at the ABCDE conference in Washington DC (2004).  We thank its participants for helpful comments.

> a The World Bank. Europe and Central Asia Region. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit. bThe World Bank.  Europe and Central Asia Region. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit. cThe World Bank.  Africa Region. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit.