-  22  -

exports of manufactures in both 1997-99 and 2000-03. These exports in terms of value doubled between 2000 and 2003 and their share in manufactured exports increased from 22 percent in 2000 to 27 percent in 2003 (Table 15). In consequence, the trend dominant in 1997-98 of lowtechnology labor intensive products being the major levers of Bulgaria’s exports appear to have been reversed.

**Table 15:** _EU-oriented exports of manufactures by the type of technology involved in their production in 1996-2003 (in percent)_

||1996<br>|1997|1998|1999<br>|2000<br>|2001|2002|2003|Index, 1999|Index, 2003|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||||(in|millions|ofUS|dollars)|||1997=100|2000=100|
|Low-technology products|1,230|1,429|1,498|1,306|1,531|1,851|1,734|2,252|91|147|
|Medium to high tech products<br>TOTAL MANUFACTURES|323<br>1,554|297<br>1,726|356<br>1,855|404<br>1,710|422<br>1,952|474<br>2,325|603<br>2,336|843<br>3,095|136<br>99|200<br>159|
||||(in|terms o|fpercen|t)|||||
|Low-technology products|79|83|81|76|78|80|74|73|92|93|
|Mediumtohightechproducts|21|17|19|24|22|20|26|27|137|126|
||||Export<br>|sinperc<br>|ent of i<br>|mports<br>|||||
|Low-technology products|190|227|208|180|189|196|163|156|79|82|
|Medium to high tech products|34|35|29|30|31|28|32|34|85|108|
|TOTAL MANUFACTURES|97|117|96|82|91|88|79|79|70|87|
||||Sh<br>|arein E<br>|Uimpor<br>|ts<br>|||||
|Low-technology products|0.68|0.77|0.76|0.67|0.74|0.90|0.82|0.90|88|120|
|Medium to high tech products|0.10|0.09|0.10|0.10|0.10|0.12|0.15|0.17|114|176|
|TOTAL MANUFACTURES|0.30|0.32|0.32|0.28|0.29|0.36|0.36|0.39|86|134|
||||Ex<br>|port Sp<br>|ecializat<br>|ion Inde<br>|x<br>||||
|Low-technology products|2.24|2.36|2.39|2.41|2.55|2.50|2.28|2.28|102|90|
|Medium to high tech products|0.36|0.30|0.31|0.37|0.33|0.35|0.44|0.46|125|140|
|TOTAL MANUFACTURES|1.05|1.06|1.02|1.00|1.00|1.10|1.04|1.06|95|106|
|**_Memorandum_**:share of manu|factures|in Bulg|aria'sEU|-15 exp|orts||||||
||70.5|71.6|73.0|71.9|68.7|74.5|71.0|72.4|100|105|

Source: Own calculations based on EU-15 trade data reported to the UN COMTRADE database.

Although Bulgaria’s continues specializing in low-technology products in EU-15 markets, medium- to high technology intensive products have outperformed since 2000 lowtechnology products across all dimensions. They had the largest increase in competitiveness in EU-15 markets as measured by the share in EU external imports, which—after having been stagnant at around 0.10 percent in 1996-1999—increased 76 percent in 2000-03. Net exports of medium to high tech product, albeit still well below their imports, have considerably increased since 2000 in contrast to net exports of manufactures to EU-15 markets. This has taken place against the background of rapidly expanding imports, which stood in 2003—in terms of value—at 185 percent of their level in 2000. The value of Export Specialization index (ESI) in EU markets fell for low-technology products from its record level of 2.55 in 2000 to 2.28 in both 2002 and 2003. Simultaneously, the value of the ESI for medium to high technology exports has significantly increased, although it still has a long way to go to exceed the unit value indicating the status of revealed comparative advantage and specialization in EU-15 markets.

# **D** **_._** _Emerging top export performers in EU markets_

To what extent this shift towards trade in more technologically advanced products has impacted Bulgaria’s competitiveness in EU markets? What products have emerged, as top performers in Bulgaria’s EU-oriented exports during the current expansionary phase? It would be tempting to argue that Bulgaria’s export basket has changed little since 1996. For instance, almost all top 20 largest exporters in 2003 were also among top 20 not only in 2002 but also in 1999 and 1996—17 products were present in 2002, 15 in 1999 and 13 in 1996. Those that failed to be among top 20 in previous years were significant exporters within the group of top 50 except for two items—electrical wires (SITC. 7731) and motor spirit and other light oils (SITC 3341). Last