rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Regulators play a major part in promoting sound prudential risk management. In cooperation with actuaries, they issue guidance notes on the creation of technical reserves and the methodology used for key actuarial assumptions. They also issue clear rules on asset segregation and safe custody as well as asset diversification and valuation. Prudent risk management also requires the setting of an adequate and well specified solvency margin. Increasingly, this is formulated as a risk-based capital requirement that takes into account the level of risk of both assets and liabilities. Finally, formulation and publication of a regulatory ladder is an important tool to ensure consistency and predictability in the exercise of supervisory functions.

As the preceding discussion amply demonstrates the new Insurance Commission of Jordan has embraced the new regulatory and supervisory approach and is well on its way in creating a modern and effective system of insurance regulation and supervision. It needs to become an effective and proactive supervisory agency, focusing on risk-based supervision. It also needs to emphasize the importance of internal control systems, complement the corporate governance role of non-executive directors, play an active part in developing comprehensive databases, develop objective and uniform valuation models for illiquid assets, and commission special audits of companies with weak financial structures (low reserves and solvency margins and/or large exposure to illiquid assets and accounts receivable).

33
not reflect the selection of men and women into enterprises or different sizes and/or enterprises operating in different sectors. These cash shortages are consistent with barriers to financing that women-led businesses faced before the pandemic and a drying up of alternative sources (personal savings, borrowing from friends and family), which were affected by the pandemic. Compared to male peers, women entrepreneurs tend to have less access to formal financing and financial services, and face larger credit shortages (Bruhn et al., 2017). Moreover, in low and middle income countries, women are less likely to borrow to start, operate, or expand a farm or a business compared to men (28% lower likelihood); they are less likely to finance their business with personal savings (33% gap); and are also less likely to borrow (for business or other purposes) from financial institutions (24% gap).<sup>16</sup> The predicted gender difference in available liquidity is not statistically significant among micro-businesses but increases with the size of the firm to the disadvantage of women for larger firms–almost 9.5 fewer days among small firms; 12 fewer days among medium and large firms. Across sectors, we find that the predicted gender gap averages -10.4 days in hospitality and -7.9 days in other services, industries with a relatively high fraction of women entrepreneurs. In retail and wholesale the gap is statistically significant as well (-11.9). We do not find a clear pattern across severity of the shock.

Despite these important differences in the liquidity available to cover costs, women-led businesses are not on average more likely to report falling into arrears or expecting to fall into arrears. The average predicted gender gap is not statistically different from zero in either the unconditional or the conditional specification. However, this average effect is hiding important heterogeneity across sectors. Women-led businesses in hospitality are comparatively more likely to report falling in arrears (a statistically significant gap of 6.4 pp). We also find that the gap is large and significant and to the disadvantage of women among businesses in the third quartile of the mobility drop (3.7 pp), but not among countries in the top quartile.

16The World Bank Gender Data Portal.

15
Analysis of CADENA can be extended to state and municipal level elections with better use of the discontinuities in payments for identification purposes. Fondos is one of the most advanced experiences in the world in hybrid insurance, with an interesting combination of risk retention and risk transfer instruments (Ibarra and Mahul, 2004). It also deserves careful attention, including in the political economy dimension due to the role of the public sector (Agroasemex) in helping manage the scheme. Political economy considerations should be both in the direction of payouts to votes (swing voter model) and of votes to payouts (core supporter model). A key issue here is the role of information in order to discipline public expenditures, thus avoiding clientelistic use of shock coping expenditures and achieving electoral accountability (Ferraz and Finan, 2008).

# **3. Feedback loops: Evaluating the impact of commitment in risk reduction and risk coping on household-level decisions toward risk management**

Risk reduction and better risk coping services can help households reduce costly risk management. If this is the case, disaster risk financing can have a double gain for households: a **direct** welfare gain in reducing post-shock losses through various types of expenditures for relief, recovery, and reconstruction; and an **indirect** efficiency gain through incentives to invest in risky income earning activities while controlling for moral hazard behavior. This indirect effect can be very large, especially if losses associated with disaster events are large and infrequent.

We give here two examples. One is risk reduction through technological innovations delivered as international public goods. The other is social safety net programs with access provided as a legally enforceable right.

# **Example of flood resistant rice, Swarna-Sub1**

In India, 30% of the area cultivated in rice is subject to flash flooding, leading to crop destruction when flooding lasts more that 3-4 days. The CGIAR and its local partners developed a new rice variety, Swarna-Sub1, that can survive under water for up to 17 days, and resume its growth once flooding has receded. It is thus a technological innovation that reduces vulnerability to climate shocks, which are becoming more frequent with climate change. What are the consequences of this increased resilience to climatic shocks on shock-coping and risk management? Use of this example is to show that the expected gain over time from risk reduction can be as, if not more, important due to risk management than it is from shock-coping.

Based on the results of a randomized control trial (RCT) in Orissa, we observe that Swarna-Sub1 offers a 45% yield gain relative to the current most popular variety, Swarna, when plots are submerged during a 10 days period (Dar et al., 2013a). The avoided yield loss through use of this improved seed is on average 232hk/ha. We also find that this variety protects differentially more producers from the disadvantaged social casts who, over the course of history, have been pushed onto the lands most exposed to 8
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substantial resources in assessing the performance and quality of public procurement systems in many borrower countries. The principal instrument in question is the Country Procurement Assessment Report (CPAR) – discussed briefly above. CPARs have contributed to enactment of better legal frameworks and developing new institutions to manage procurement. They could be used as an input or model for an international collaborative effort by governments to monitor their performance on the procurement front, if they are complemented by a focus on impact assessment and the collection of some of the information that is already required on the part of current GPA members (e.g., the share of procurement that is below a minimum threshold value and the share of contracts that are awarded directly without competitive bidding).

The advantages and disadvantages of this type of voluntary cooperation are well known.<sup>26</sup> A plus is that the pace with which countries adopt policies that conform to recommended principles can vary. The ‘learning’ or ‘focal point’ models that underlie voluntary cooperation help ensure that, when implemented, policy changes are more likely to have national ownership – i.e., there are constituencies that support adoption or changes in existing practices. A downside of the voluntary approach is that insofar as there is political economy resistance to adopting national welfare-enhancing reforms, it may not happen in the first place. The same is true of policies that create negative spillovers – the incentives for countries to take the interests of partner countries into account will be weak.

In the case of procurement the weakness of the evidentiary base is such that it is hard to tell just how important these potential downsides are. As noted earlier, the adverse knock-on effects felt by foreigners of suboptimal procurement regimes in developing countries is likely to be limited, due to the small size of those countries' state budgets. In which case, the primary rationale for them to engage in international cooperation will be national; that is, improving domestic policies and performance. Even if this is not the case, a voluntary approach to specific issues that includes explicit analysis and assessment of policies will help generate information on the size and distribution of the costs and benefits of the status quo, as well as the likely net payoffs from reform. It

> 26 See Hoekman (2004b) for more detailed discussion of soft law options in the WTO.

31
Delhi, as shown in Appendix Figure C1.<sup>29</sup> Appendix Table D5 provides some summary statistics of the survey sample. Compared to non-users, bus users (both new and continuous) are predominantly aged between 31 and 40, more often homemakers, more likely to reside in households with a monthly income exceeding |20,000, and less inclined to travel for work. Given these differences, we constructed a comparable sample of nonusers, new users, and continuous users using propensity score matching. We match women on the following variables: age, occupation,<sup>30</sup> total average monthly household income and expenditure on travel, ownership of private vehicles, and driving knowledge.

Our study sample of the Delhi primary survey is the matched sample ( _n_ = 1, 290) consisting of 184 non-users, 182 new users, and 924 continuous users. Compared to the treated sample in the CPHS data, the matched sample is characterized by higher levels of education and annual household income. Approximately 68 % of the bus users in the matched sample hold a graduate degree, and 85 % of them report an annual household income of over |240,000.

**Perceptions of Buses** In Table A1, we compare perceptions of buses between non-users and users (panel A), as well as between new users and continuous users (panel B) in the post-scheme period. We examine the differences in their perceptions of five aspects: 1) affordability and availability of bus transit; 2) safety regarding accidents, crashes, threats, and thefts; 3) connectivity; 4) bus frequency, waiting time, travel duration, and unnecessary stops; 5) accessibility to bus stops. In panel A, we can see that non-users consistently give lower ratings across all five perspectives; they find bus travel less satisfactory across all five dimensions compared to users. They are particularly concerned about safety issues. The average rating concerning safety among non-users is 1.63, indicating a level of satisfaction that falls between highly unsatisfactory and unsatisfactory. In panel B, we find that compared to continuous users, and new users tend to give a lower rating to safety (0.13 points lower) but higher ratings to affordability and the availability of free commutes. Specifically, new users, on average, rate affordability of buses 0.19 points higher than continuous users, and this difference is statistically significant at a 1% level. These results suggest that when it comes to transportation, women prioritize not only safety concerns but also _affordability_ . Reducing costs in public transportation thus has the potential to encourage women to choose buses as a viable option for job search and

> 29The generation points are all major locations within the city where trips originate or are attracted to. These include major work areas, shopping districts, and schools.

> 30The occupation variable consists of the following categories: service, business, informal worker, daily wager, homemaker, and student.

7
financial transactions, the elimination of mandated credit to "priority" sectors, the privatization of state banks, the reduction of reserve requirements held at the Central Bank, and the elimination of prohibitions on private institutions to offer a broad array of financial services (see Bandiera et al. 2000; Roubini and Sala-i-Martin 2001).

The policy indicators on the regulatory framework are subtler and require deeper examination. In broad terms, the objective of prudential regulations is to protect creditor and shareholder rights against excessive risk taking and uncompetitive practices on the part of financial institutions. In most instances the implementation and monitoring of these regulations entails the formation of a supervisory agency. It is debatable whether this agency should be independent of government and/or given broad powers over banks and other financial institutions. However, there is agreement that its main role is to promote the transparency of dealings and accounts on the part of financial institutions and corporations related to them. The transparency and accuracy of financial records should allow private monitoring on banks and other financial institutions. However, it can be argued that transparency is not enough and that it should be complemented with specific rules imposed on financial institutions, such as prohibition of related lending, sufficient capitalization of financial assets, and adequate matching of assets and liabilities in terms of duration and currency denomination. In this regard, a suitable policy indicator can be developed from the portion of regulations that are adopted from wellestablished international criteria, such as the Basle convention and related agreements. Lastly, but not less importantly, prudential regulation should establish a clear and predetermined procedure for the liquidation of assets of failed companies and banks. To accomplish this, a modern and efficient bankruptcy law is essential. For principles and data on financial regulation, see La Porta et al. (1998), and Caprio, Barth, and Levine (2001), World Bank (2003).

Turning to monetary stability, a right mixture of monetary, exchange-rate, and fiscal policies is essential for this purpose. As mentioned above, fiscal policies are addressed indirectly in various areas of reform discussed in the paper. Here, we concentrate on monetary and exchange-rate policies. For them, the most important policy by an efficient tax system, by eradication of deficit-producing public firms, and by improvements in governance, among other reforms.

7
these institutional variables separately in the regressions. Since these variables are also correlated with income of the country we follow the previously used methodology and regress the institutional variables on per-capita income and population and take the residuals as representative of deviations from income-conditional expected values for each of the four indexes.

Alternative variables measuring institutional quality were obtained from two sources. A proxy for the level of corruption was obtained from the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index for the period 1996-2003. The Index ranks countries in terms of the degree to which corruption is perceived to exist among public officials and politicians and focuses on corruption in the public sector and defines corruption as the abuse of public office for private gain.

Several other variables measuring the quality of institutions and governance were taken from Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi (2005). The authors estimate six dimensions of governance covering 209 countries and territories for five time periods: 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004. Data for the year 1997, 1999, 2001 and 2003 were interpolated. The variables were used to check the robustness of our previous results: government effectiveness (measuring the competence of the bureaucracy and the quality of public service delivery), political stability (measuring the likelihood of violent threats to, or changes in, government, including terrorism), regulatory quality (measuring the incidence of market-unfriendly policies), rule of law (measuring the quality of contract enforcement, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence), voice and accountability (measuring political, civil and human rights). The six indicators are measured in units ranging from about -2.5 to 2.5, with higher values corresponding to better governance outcomes. The results using the 20
53

# **<u>Eritrea</u>**

“Since gaining independence in 1993, Eritreans have continued migrating to Sudan, Ethiopia, Yemen, Egypt, or Israel because of a lack of basic human rights or political freedom, educational and job opportunities, or to seek asylum because of militarization<sup>86</sup> ” UNHCR reported 474, 296 Eritreans to be refugees and asylum seekers globally at the end of 2015, about 12 percent of Eritrea’s official 3.6 million‐population.

A Swiss immigration fact‐finding mission to Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, concluded that “proof of improved human rights conditions is still missing.” It also concluded, “involuntary returnees could count on imprisonment and perhaps torture<sup>87</sup> .” By law, Eritrean is required to serve 18 months in national services starting at 18 but in reality, the time could be a decade. The fear of open‐ended conscription is the main driver for migration. Conscripts face harsh treatment and attempt to flee is sternly punished. The rule of law is flimsy at best and the president is not constrained by institutional safeguards or processes. Free speech, expression, and association are heavily repressed. Detention of journalists and political opponents is not rare. Arbitrary imprisonment of less prominent citizens, as well as persecution of citizens who practice religions that Eritrea discourages return.

EIU<sup>88</sup> forecasts Eritrea’s real GDP growth at 4.9% in 2017, but the economy is performing well below its potential. Government mismanagement, lack of financial resources, and droughts hinder economic growth and have contributed to soaring inflation over the last two decades. According to CIA’s World Factbook<sup>89</sup> , while over 80% of Eritreans are employed in agriculture, agriculture only contributes to 12% of GDP in 2016. In 2004, 50% of the population is living in poverty. In 2013, only 17% of the rural area has access to electricity and 4 million people are living without electricity.

# **<u>Western Balkans: Albania, Kosovo and Serbia</u>**

Albania, Kosovo, and Serbia are part of the Western Balkans, a group that also includes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Montenegro. Different from the other 10 countries mentioned above as large sources of refugees, these three countries are not in conflict. They are also relatively small countries, with a combined population of around 12 million. Nevertheless, they make up for a non‐negligible part of the asylum seekers in Europe. Publication by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN)‐ BalkanInsight reported

> 86 CIA World Factbook, <u>https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the‐world‐ factbook/geos/er.html</u>

> 87 Human Rights Watch, Events of 2016, Eritrea, <u>https://www.hrw.org/world‐</u> ‐ <u>report/2017/country chapters/eritrea</u> 88 EIU, country outlook, May 17th 2017

> 89 CIA World Factbook, <u>https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the‐world‐ factbook/geos/er.html</u>
Social cash transfers, comprising of pensions, family allowances, sick pay, scholarships and other transfers, represent a significant source of income for households in the former communist economies of Eastern Europe and in most OECD economies. Although there are variations among the former, Milanovic (PSP) argues that, at the start of transition, the total cash transfer distribution there was more or less uniformly distributed across income groups. This reflects the fact that the most substantive of the transfers-pensions and family allowances-had opposing incidence patterns. Pensions showed a tendency to be prorich (Russia provides one exception), while family allowances were generally quite propoor (in percentage and absolute terms) for reasons not dissimilar to why primary education is propoor in developing countries. However, Jarvis and Micklewright (PSP) caution that, at least with respect to Hungary in the pre-reform period (pre-1990), this result hinges on the equivalence scale used in ranking households in the pre-intervention state (also see van de Walle and others 1994).

Two studies in PSP explore incidence changes over time using the benefit incidence methodology for two points in time. To our knowledge no other studies have done this. A comparison of incidence at two or more dates enables a determination of how spending changes were distributed across different groups. It is sometimes argued that if the rich already gain from public services, marginal spending must per force reach the poor. Yet, additional scenarios can be ventured. For example, spending increases may be devoted to quality improvements for current beneficiaries. Political economy considerations may buttress this prospect. So, the issue provides an interesting empirical question. The results indicate that distributional improvements occurred for Indonesia's public health sector outlays (van de Walle, PSP) and for Malaysia's health and education expenditures (Hammer and others, PSP). In both countries, the poor's participation rates increased markedly over the period. The benefit incidence methodology is unable to fully account for the factors underlying incidence patterns. In the Indonesia case it is not clear to what degree government policy as opposed 25