11 The cost of implementing forced return is often overlooked. An EUobserver<sup>14</sup> probe of some 100 joint return flights coordinated by the EU’s border agency Frontex, calculated that on average, it costs €5,800 to deport one individual. The price depends on the destination of the flight, its route, and the number of escort personnel needed. For instance, deporting to Albania from Germany may cost around €1,000, while forced returns to Nigeria may cost up to €9,000. Unexpected circumstances may “lead to last‐minute changes like returnees absconding, changed medical conditions, new asylum claims or other legal challenges<sup>15</sup> .” In extreme cases, costs can spiral out of control, as in a case where Swiss authorities decided to reroute a flight boarded by migrants from Togo, spending close to €90,000 for each person returned to Togo. A report by the American Immigration Council (2013) estimated that the United States spends nearly $ 2 billion a year on immigration detention<sup>16</sup> and that the direct fiscal cost of removing some 9 million illegal immigrants could stretch into the hundreds of billion dollars, not accounting for the adverse impact on the broader economy.

Contrary to common belief, the granting of refugee status is not irreversible. According to Article 1C of the _1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees_ , refugee status shall cease to apply to a person under certain conditions (“the Cessation Clause”), including if he or she has voluntarily re‐availed himself of the protection of the country of his nationality or if “He can no longer, because the circumstances in connection with which he has been recognised as a refugee have ceased to exist, continue to refuse to avail himself of the protection of the country of his nationality...”. Thus, many developing country hosts have treated the acceptance of refugees as a temporary phenomenon pending the end of conflicts, and this is also formally the position of countries such as Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom today.

But is return beneficial in the first place – more specifically, is it in the economic self‐interest of the host country? To address this question, we need to consider the counterfactual, which is the effect of integrating refugees. These issues are considered in the next three sections.

_‐_ _<u>The Effect of Refugees (and of Return) on the Macro Economy</u>_<sup>_17_</sup> It should be stated at the outset that the economic implications of integrating refugees are not unconditional. They depend crucially on policies that the host countries pursue, especially whether and how soon host countries allow refugees to work and the support given to them to enable them to find jobs. The arrival of large numbers of refugees can stimulate demand in the short term and contribute to an acceleration of long‐term economic growth in the right circumstances. Even when policies in the host country are strongly

> 14 15EUObserver, Skyrocketing costs for returning EU migrants, https://euobserver.com/migration/137720 https://euobserver.com/migration/137720

> 16 American Immigration Council, The Cost of Immigration Enforcement and Border Security https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/the‐cost‐of‐immigration‐enforcement‐ and‐border‐security

> 17 Parts of this section draw on Dadush and Niebuhr (2016) and Dadush (2014)