2-4). In contrast, the increase in the number of semi-skilled and high-skilled immigrants was substantially lower.

**Table 3: Exports and local migration patterns**

|||**I**|**V**||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|**(a) Impact on the number of immigrants**|All|Unskilled|Semi-skilled|Skilled|
|log (Exports per worker), change|75.63***|53.37***|11.14***|7.257***|
||(19.36)|(13.32)|(3.562)|(2.444)|
|Observations|1,980|1,980|1,972|1,868|
|Demographic and employment controls (year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Median income control(year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|**(b) Impact on the number of immigrants from other Mexican states**|All|Unskilled|Semi-skilled|Skilled|
|log (Exports per worker), change|52.33***|37.79***|8.065**|5.874***|
||(15.88)|(11.50)|(3.230)|(2.196)|
|Observations|1,980|1,980|1,972|1,868|
|Demographic and employment controls (year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Median income control(year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|**(c) Impact on the number of immigrants from other countries**|All|Unskilled|Semi-skilled|Skilled|
|log (Exports per worker), change|23.30***|15.58***|3.072***|1.383***|
||(5.832)|(3.506)|(0.648)|(0.475)|
|Observations|1,980|1,980|1,972|1,868|
|Demographic and employment controls (year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Median income control(year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|**(d) Impact on the size of the working age population**|All|Unskilled|Semi-skilled|Skilled|
|log (Exports per worker), change|1,310***|873.3***|306.5***|123.8***|
||(273.5)|(206.0)|(57.87)|(27.79)|
|Observations|1,980|1,980|1,980|1,980|
|Demographic and employment controls (year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Median income control(year 2000)|YES|YES|YES|YES|

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The dependent variable is the change from 2005 to 2015 for the group specified in the column header, namely: the number of residents who lived in another state of Mexico or abroad 5 years before (panel a); the number of residents who lived in another state of Mexico 5 years before (panel b); the number of residents who lived abroad 5 years before (panel c); the total working age population (aged 14-55) (panel d). The explanatory variable is the change in the log of exports-to-workers from 2004 to 2014. Demographic and employment controls include the proportion of rural population, the proportion of population aged 15 and more who are literate, total population, and the share of employment in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of economic activity (all variables in the year 2000). Unskilled: Primary completed or less; Semi-skilled: Secondary completed; Skilled: University completed.

Table 5 shifts the focus to migration patterns with the United States, specifically the impact of exports and imports on emigrants to the United States and returning migrants from the United States to Mexico over the period 2000-10.<sup>13</sup> Not surprisingly, expanding exports per worker by 10 percent lowers the number of households with emigrants to the United States by about 9 while increasing the number of households with returning migrants from the United States by 14. In other words, larger exports deter outward migration and encourage emigrants to return.

As a result of these changing migration patterns, remittances from the United States dropped following an expansion in exports per worker. Specifically, a 10 percent increase in the export-to-worker ratio reduced the share of households receiving remittances from the United States by 0.19 percentage

> 13 These data are not available for 2005 and 2015.

15