# I. Introduction

Too many children are not learning to read in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region’s middle-income countries (MICs). In some EAP countries, such as the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and the Philippines, more than 90 percent of 10-year-olds cannot read and understand an age-appropriate text (World Bank et al. 2022a). To accelerate learning in these countries, better teaching will be needed. But to improve the quality of teachers in the next 10 years, where should these countries focus their attention? On improving the teaching skills and content knowledge of their existing stock of teachers, on recruiting and better training new teachers, or on doing both? This paper contributes to this discussion by answering two policy questions: (i) will EAP’s MICs<sup>3</sup> need more or fewer teachers in the coming decade, and (ii) quantitatively, how important will the newly recruited teachers be (the flow) relative to the teaching workforce who have already been recruited (the stock)? Two key messages emerge: first, significant heterogeneity exists across the 22 countries, with 7 countries – mainly in East Asia – projected to need fewer teachers overall in the next 10 years relative to the teacher stock in 2020, while most others will need to expand their teacher workforce (especially in the Pacific Islands). Second, despite this heterogeneity, in every EAP country, teachers who are already “in the system” are expected to constitute the majority of teachers still employed in 2030. In some countries, teachers who have already been recruited will constitute more than 70 percent of those who will be in schools in 2030.

# II. Large needs for more and better primary teachers

Globally, more teachers will be needed. Teacher shortages are a global problem, with an estimated need for 69 million more teachers to meet SDG4 by 2030. This includes a need for 24% more primary teachers. The need for primary teachers varies by region, with Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia accounting for the majority of the need in developing countries. In 2016, Southeast Asia and Oceania were estimated to need 3 million and 43,000 more primary teachers, respectively (Sources: UIS 2016, International Task Force on Teachers for Education 2030, 2021). The main driver behind the need for additional teachers is the rapid growth in student numbers, as well as countries’ desire to avoid having large class sizes with detrimental impacts on student learning (e.g. see Finn and Achilles 1999).

Teachers with better skills and knowledge will be needed. Different data sources suggest wide differences in the qualifications that primary teachers have. For instance, surveys conducted in six East Asian countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam) reveal that the academic credentials of primary education teachers (Grade 5) range widely. All or the majority of children in the Philippines (100 percent), Malaysia (89 percent), and Myanmar (88 percent) had a teacher with at least a bachelor’s degree from a university, while this figure was 68 percent in Vietnam. However, in Lao PDR, on average less than 1 percent of children had a teacher who held this academic credential, and the majority of its students were taught by teachers with a post-secondary level credential, but not a bachelor’s degree. In Cambodia, approximately 60 percent of students had a teacher with secondary education or lower academic credentials. This situation reflects national policies that have lower requirements for teacher

> 3 Covered countries (alphabetical order in each subregion): Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam in East Asia; Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia (Fed, Stats), Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu in the Pacific Islands.

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