24 Figure 11: Importance of the global economy for the U.S. economy (A) Share of imports in U.S. (B) Role of foreign multinational consumption expenditures, 2009 corporations in the United States <!-- Start of picture text --> Percent Percent of U.S. total<br>35 30<br>30<br>25 25<br>20<br>15 20<br>10<br>5 15<br>0<br>10<br>5<br>0<br>Sales Exports Imports Employment<br>(C) Variance share of U.S. and G6 (D) Spillover to United States from 1<br>growth percentage point increase in global,<br>other AE and EMDE growth<br>Percent US G6 Percentage point GDP growth<br>50 1.4<br>1.2 Industrial production<br>40<br>1.0<br>30 0.8<br>0.6<br>20 0.4<br>0.2<br>10<br>0.0<br>0 -0.2<br>Global Factor Advanced Idiosyncratic -0.4<br>Economy Factors Global excl. AE excl.US EMDE<br>Factor US<br>goods Goods PCE Services<br>footwear<br>Clothing and Recreational<br>Durables ex. cars, recr., hh. equip. Motor vehicles Durable houshold equipment Nondurables ex. en., cloth., footw.<br><!-- End of picture text --> Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, World Bank estimates.

A. Share of imports in U.S. personal consumption expenditures. "Durables ex. cars, recr., hh. equip." stands for durables excluding motor vehicles and parts, recreational goods and vehicles, and furnishings and durable household equipment. "Recreational goods" stands for recreational goods and vehicles. "Durable household equipment" stands for furnishings and durable household equipment. "Motor vehicles" stands for motor vehicles and parts. "Nondurables ex. en., cloth., footw." stands for nondurables excluding gasoline and other energy goods, clothing and footwear. "PCE" stands for personal consumption expenditure and consists of goods and services.

B. Share of multinational corporations in U.S. sales, exports and imports of goods and employment. "Sales" indicates sales of multinational corporations in gross output of U.S. private sector industries. Data covers 2010-2013.

C. The figure reflects the contribution of global, group-specific, and other factors to the variance of GDP growth. A dynamic factor model is estimated over the period 1985-2015, using a sample of 106 countries grouped into three regions: advanced economies (AEs), emerging and frontier markets, and other developing countries. Variance decompositions are computed for each country and, within each country, for output. Each bar represents the variance share of U.S. and G6 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) output growth attributable to the global factor, the AE-specific factor, the country-specific factor and the idiosyncratic term.

D. The figure shows cumulative impulse responses after one year of GDP or industrial production (IP) growth in the United States following a 1 percentage point increase in GDP or industrial production growth in 22 other AEs and 19 EMDEs (13 EMDEs for industrial production). "Global" indicates the weighted average impact of AEs and EMDEs. Vertical lines indicate 16th-84th percentile confidence bands. Vector autoregression models are estimated for 1998Q1-2016Q2 with four lags. The model includes, in this order, global GDP or industrial production growth excluding the United States and AE or EMDE, U.S. GDP or industrial production growth, the U.S. 10-year sovereign bond yield plus JP Morgan’s EMBI index and AE or EMDE GDP or industrial production growth. The oil price is assumed to be exogenous.