rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Measuring distortions to
            agricultural incentives, revisited
Notwithstanding the tariffication
            component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture,
            import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an
            incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural
            producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national
            markets. Especially in developing countries,
            non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and
            food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring
            distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine
            both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures
            including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative
            restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm
            outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples.
            This paper addresses the practical methodological issues
            that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a
            measurement task in developing countries. The approach is
            illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal
            and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the
            period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an
            economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the
            effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of
            the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004.
Instrumental variables regressions
            with honestly uncertain exclusion restrictions
The validity of instrumental variables
            (IV) regression models depends crucially on fundamentally
            untestable exclusion restrictions. Typically exclusion
            restrictions are assumed to hold exactly in the relevant
            population, yet in many empirical applications there are
            reasonable prior grounds to doubt their literal truth. In
            this paper I show how to incorporate prior uncertainty about
            the validity of the exclusion restriction into linear IV
            models, and explore the consequences for inference. In
            particular I provide a mapping from prior uncertainty about
            the exclusion restriction into increased uncertainty about
            parameters of interest. Moderate prior uncertainty about
            exclusion restrictions can lead to a substantial loss of
            precision in estimates of structural parameters. This loss
            of precision is relatively more important in situations
            where IV estimates appear to be more precise, for example in
            larger samples or with stronger instruments. The author
            illustrates these points using several prominent recent
            empirical papers that use linear IV models.
Investigating the Impact of climate
            change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi
This analysis explores the potential
            impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi
            weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate
            change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis
            is important from a methodological and policy perspective.
            By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate
            modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility,
            albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects
            of climate change on the near and long-term future of
            microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a
            model-based estimate of the incremental role of climate
            change, along with the associated uncertainties, this
            methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for
            financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools
            against climate-change induced insolvency. This is of major
            concern to donors, nongovernmental organizations, and others
            supporting these innovative systems; those actually at-risk;
            and insurers. A quantitative estimate of the additional
            burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for
            poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation.
Investigating the Impact of climate
            change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi
WPS4631 Policy ReseaRch WoRking PaPeR 4631 Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on the Robustness of Index-based Microinsurance in Malawi _S. Hochrainer R. Mechler G. Pflug A. Lotsch_ The World Bank Development Research Group Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team May 2008
Benchmarking financial development
Capitalizing on recent improvements in
            the availability of cross-country financial sector data,
            this paper proposes a standard methodology for benchmarking
            the policy component of financial development. Systematic
            controls are introduced to isolate main structural country
            characteristics and a principal components analysis is used
            to help identify a parsimonious set of ten "core"
            outcome indicators from a broader set of twenty seven
            potential indicators covering different dimensions of
            development in both financial institutions and financial
            markets. Such a broad-based approach helps reveal important
            determinants and regularities of the process of financial
            development. The paper also identifies some of the main data
            gaps that will need to be filled to allow further progress
            in financial benchmarking looking forward.
The social discount rate : estimates
            for nine Latin American countries
The social discount rate measures the
            rate at which a society would be willing to trade present
            for future consumption. As such it is one of the most
            critical inputs needed for cost-benefit analysis. This paper
            presents estimates of the social discount rates for nine
            Latin American countries. It is argued that if the recent
            track record in terms of growth in the region is indicative
            of future performance, estimates of the social discount rate
            would be in the 3-4 percent range. However, to the extent
            that the region improves on its past performance, the social
            discount rate to be used in the evaluation of projects would
            increase to the 5-7 percent range. The paper also argues
            that if the social planner gives a similar chance to the low
            and high growth scenario, the discount rate should be
            dependent on the horizon of the project, declining from 4.4
            percent for a 25-year horizon to less than 4 percent for a
            100-year horizon.
The impact of cash transfers on
            school enrollment : evidence from Ecuador
This paper presents evidence about the
            impact on school enrollment of a program in Ecuador that
            gives cash transfers to the 40 percent poorest families. The
            evaluation design consists of a randomized experiment for
            families around the first quintile of the poverty index and
            of a regression discontinuity design for families around the
            second quintile of this index, which is the program's
            eligibility threshold. This allows us to compare results
            from two different credible identification methods, and to
            investigate whether the impact varies with families'
            poverty level. Around the first quintile of the poverty
            index the impact is positive while it is equal to zero
            around the second quintile. This suggests that for the
            poorest families the program lifts a credit constraint while
            this is not the case for families close to the eligibility threshold.
Integrating seasonal forecasts and
            insurance for adaptation among subsistence farmers : the
            case of Malawi
Climate variability poses a severe
            threat to subsistence farmers in southern Africa. Two
            different approaches have emerged in recent years to address
            these threats: the use of seasonal precipitation forecasts
            for risk reduction (for example, choosing seed varieties
            that can perform well for expected rainfall conditions), and
            the use of innovative financial instruments for risk sharing
            (for example, index-based weather insurance bundled to
            microcredit for agricultural inputs). So far these two
            approaches have remained entirely separated. This paper
            explores the integration of seasonal forecasts into an
            ongoing pilot insurance scheme for smallholder farmers in
            Malawi. The authors propose a model that adjusts the amount
            of high-yield agricultural inputs given to farmers to
            favorable or unfavorable rainfall conditions expected for
            the season. Simulation results - combining climatic,
            agricultural, and financial models - indicate that this
            approach substantially increases production in La Niña years
            (when droughts are very unlikely for the study area), and
            reduces losses in El Niño years (when insufficient rainfall
            often damages crops). Cumulative gross revenues are more
            than twice as large for the proposed scheme, given modeling
            assumptions. The resulting accumulation of wealth can reduce
            long-term vulnerability to drought for participating
            farmers. Conclusions highlight the potential of this
            approach for adaptation to climate variability and change in
            southern Africa.
Bank competition and financial
            stability : friends or foes
Theory makes ambiguous predictions about
            the relationship between market structure and
            competitiveness of the banking system and banking sector
            stability.  Empirical studies focusing on individual
            countries provide similarly ambiguous results, while
            cross-country studies point mostly to a positive
            relationship between competition and stability in the
            banking system. Where liberalization and unfettered
            competition have resulted in fragility, this has been mostly
            the consequence of regulatory and supervisory failures. The
            advantages of competition for an efficient and inclusive
            financial system are strong, and regulatory and supervisory
            policies should focus on an incentive-compatible environment
            for banking rather than try to fine-tune market structure or
            the degree of competition.
So you want to quit smoking : have
            you tried a mobile phone
Tobacco use, which is rising quickly in
            developing countries, kills 5.4 million people a year
            worldwide. This paper explores the impacts of mobile phone
            ownership on tobacco consumption. Indeed, mobile phone
            ownership could affect tobacco consumption because
            individuals might pay for their communication with money
            they would have spent on tobacco. Using panel data from
            2,100 households in 135 communities of the Philippines
            collected in 2003 and 2006, the analysis finds that mobile
            phone ownership leads to a 20 percent decline in monthly
            tobacco consumption. Among households in which at least one
            member smoked in 2003, purchasing a mobile phone leads to a
            32.6 percent decrease in tobacco consumption per adult over
            the age of 15. This is equivalent to one less pack of 20
            cigarettes per month per adult. The results are robust to
            various estimation strategies. Further, they suggest that
            this impact materializes through a budget shift from tobacco
            to communication.
Bidder asymmetry in infrastructure
            procurement : are there any fringe bidders
Asymmetric auctions are among the most
            rapidly growing areas in the auction literature. The
            potential benefits from improved auction efficiency are
            expected to be enormous in public procurement auctions
            related to official development projects. Entrant bidders
            are considered a key to enhance competition in an auction
            and break potential collusive arrangements among incumbent
            bidders. Asymmetric auction theory predicts that weak
            (fringe) bidders would bid more aggressively when they are
            faced with a strong (incumbent) opponent. Using official
            development assistance procurement data, this paper finds
            that in the major infrastructure sectors, entrants submitted
            systematically aggressive bids in the presence of an
            incumbent bidder. The findings also show that a high
            concentration of incumbents in an auction would harm auction
            efficiency, raising procurement costs. The results suggest
            that auctioneers should encourage fringe bidders to actively
            participate in the bidding process while maintaining the
            quality of the projects. This is conducive to enhancing
            competitive circumstances in public procurements and
            improving allocative efficiency.
Joint bidding in infrastructure procurement
To utilize public resources efficiently,
            it is required to take full advantage of competition in
            public procurement auctions. Joint bidding practices are one
            of the possible ways of facilitating auction competition. In
            theory, there are pros and cons. It may enable firms to pool
            their financial and experiential resources and remove
            barriers to entry. On the other hand, it may reduce the
            degree of competition and can be used as a cover for
            collusive behavior. The paper empirically addresses whether
            joint bidding is pro- or anti-competitive in Official
            Development Assistance procurement auctions for
            infrastructure projects. It reveals the possible risk of
            relying too much on a foreign bidding coalition and may
            suggest the necessity of overseeing it. The data reveal no
            strong evidence that joint bidding practices are compatible
            with competition policy, except for a few cases. In road
            procurements, coalitional bidding involving both local and
            foreign firms has been found pro-competitive. In the water
            and sewage sector, local joint bidding may be useful to draw
            out better offers from potential contractors. Joint bidding
            composed of only foreign companies is mostly considered anti-competitive.
The World Bank's early
            reflections on development : a development institution or a bank
Until the late 1960s, the World Bank
            presented itself as an institution devoted to making sound
            and directly productive project loans. Yet, during its very
            early years, some discussions developed inside the Bank
            regarding the possibility of issuing different types of
            loans, namely (i) loans aimed at tackling social issues
            ("social loans"), and (ii) loans aimed at
            providing foreign currency to address disequilibria in the
            balance of payments ("impact loans"). This paper
            brings together historical analysis and theories of
            organization development to study the housing issue as a
            case in point. The analysis reveals that the Bank was
            unwilling to lend for housing programs not because these
            were not sound - in fact, they were - but because they were
            geared toward achieving social welfare objectives and were
            not directly linked to productive investment projects, such
            as dams, power stations, and railroads. This early decision
            had a significant impact on the subsequent development of
            the Bank's view of policy-making: it locked the
            institution into a particular lending pattern, and deprived
            it of important intellectual resources. It was not until the
            late 1960s that the Bank began to take social issues into
            consideration, rather late compared with other multilateral institutions.
Potential applications of
            conditional cash transfers for prevention of sexually
            transmitted infections and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa
A growing number of developing countries
            have introduced conditional cash transfer programs that
            provide money to poor families with certain contingencies
            attached - such as requiring school attendance or regular
            immunization and health check-ups.  As the popularity of
            conditional cash transfer programs has grown,
            experimentation with potential applications in other areas
            of health, such as sexual and reproductive health, and HIV
            prevention, in particular, has also increased. Evaluations
            of conditional cash transfer programs have focused almost
            exclusively on uptake of health and educational services,
            which make relatively low demands of participants compared
            with more complex interventions, which require the cessation
            of risky behaviors, such as smoking, obesity, and substance
            abuse. The literature on contingency management - based on
            the principle that behavioral change occurs when appropriate
            behaviors are reinforced and rewarded - provides a richer
            picture of the complexity of the use of conditionality to
            encourage healthy behavioral change. This paper examines
            developing countries' experiences with conditional cash
            transfer programs and the results of trials in clinical
            settings on the efficacy of contingency management, and
            addresses their relevance for designing conditional cash
            transfer programs to address risky sexual behavior and
            promote the prevention of sexually transmitted infections
            and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Referendum, response, and
            consequences for Sudan : the game between juba and khartoum
This paper presents a game theory model
            of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba
            leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in
            2011. The findings show that excessive militarization and
            brinksmanship is a rational response for both actors,
            neither of which can credibly commit to lower levels of
            military spending under the current status quo. This
            militarization is often at the expense of health and
            education expenditures, suggesting that the opportunity cost
            of militarization is foregone economic development. These
            credibility issues might be resolved by democratization,
            increased transparency, reduction of information
            asymmetries, and efforts to promote economic and political
            cooperation. The paper explores these devices, demonstrating
            how they can contribute to Pareto preferred outcomes in
            equilibrium. The authors characterize the military
            expenditure associated with the commitment problem
            experienced by both sides, estimate its costs from data for
            Sudan, and identify the opportunity cost of foregone
            development implied by continued, excessive, and
            unsustainable militarization.
Gender and asset ownership : a guide
            to collecting individual-level data
Ownership and control over assets such
            as land and housing provide direct and indirect benefits to
            individuals and households, including a secure place to
            live, the means of a livelihood, protection during
            emergencies, and collateral for credit that can be used for
            investment or consumption.  Unfortunately, few studies -
            either at the micro or macro levels- examine the gender
            dimensions of asset ownership.  This paper sets out a
            framework for researchers who are interested in collecting
            data on individual level asset ownership and analyzing the
            gender asset gap. It reviews best practices in existing
            surveys with respect to data collection on assets at both
            the household and individual levels, and shows how various
            questions on individually owned assets can be incorporated
            with a minimum of effort and cost into existing multi-topic
            household surveys, using examples of three Living Standard
            Measurement Study surveys: the 1998-99 Ghana survey, the
            2000 Guatemala survey, and the 1997-98 Vietnam survey
            questionnaires. The analysis shows that it is feasible to
            add a minimal set of questions to enable calculation of the
            gender asset gap. Adding a series of extra questions will
            permit a more satisfactory and nuanced analysis of asset
            acquisition, use, disposition, and valuation - information
            that is critical for policies promoting gender equality,
            poverty reduction, and economic growth.
Job creation and labor reform in
            Latin America
This paper studies the effects of
            labor-regulation reform using data for 10,396 firms from 14
            Latin American countries. Firms are asked both how many
            permanent workers they would have hired and how many they
            would have terminated if labor regulations were made more
            flexible. I find that making labor regulations more flexible
            would lead to an average net increase of 2.08 percent in
            total employment. Firms with fewer than 20 employees would
            benefit the most, with average gains in net employment of
            4.27 percent. Countries with more regulated labor markets
            would experience larger gains in total employment. These
            larger gains in total employment, however, would be achieved
            through higher rates of hiring and higher rates of
            termination. These results may explain why there is
            substantial opposition to labor reforms despite the
            predicted gains in efficiency and total employment.