rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
Figure 9c: Combined wage effects socio-demographic changes, immigration and emigration, 2000 – 2010 (%), for Old High-Skilled <!-- Start of picture text --> IRL PRT<br>USA CAN AUS NZL GBR DEU AUT CHE FRA BEL NLD ITA ESP GRC DNK SWE NOR FIN CZE HUN SVK POL JPN TUR<br>LUX<br>Socio−demographic Immigration Emigration Combined<br>30%<br>20%<br>10%<br>0%<br>−10%<br>−20%<br>−30%<br><!-- End of picture text --> The figure plots equilibrium wage responses to overall changes in the structure of the labor force Figure 9d: Combined wage effects socio-demographic changes, immigration and emigration, 2000 – 2010 (%), for Young High-Skilled <!-- Start of picture text --> IRL SVK<br>USA CAN AUS NZL GBR DEU AUT CHE FRA BEL NLD ITA ESP PRT GRC DNK SWE NOR FIN CZE HUN POL JPN TUR<br>LUX<br>Socio−demographic Immigration Emigration Combined<br>30%<br>20%<br>10%<br>0%<br>−10%<br>−20%<br>−30%<br><!-- End of picture text --> The figure plots equilibrium wage responses to overall changes in the structure of the labor force 39
productivity growth in eight selected OECD countries, therefore supporting the idea that entrepreneurs represent one of the driving forces of economic growth and structural change (see Audretsch and Keilbach, 2004; Foster, Haltiwanger and Syverson, 2008; Fritsch, 2011). The reasoning is that new entrants can displace obsolescent firms in a process of ‘creative destruction’ (see Schumpeter, 1939 and 1943; for an account in an endogenous growth framework, see Aghion and Howitt, 1992), which may be considered an important micro determinant of productivity dynamics, eventually resulting in economic growth. From such a perspective, entrepreneurs are those individuals Schumpeter labeled “energetic types” who display their “essential features” by introducing the “new” into various activities and by “breaking with the established routines” usually adhered to by managers (see Santarelli, 2006, p. xii).

In more general terms, it has been argued that new firm formation can be beneficial for economic growth (see Van Stel, Carree and Thurik, 2005), employment generation and unemployment reduction both in developed and developing countries (see Hart and Oulton, 2001; Thurik, 2003; for a recent study assessing the impact of young firms on employment generation and also covering the DCs, see Ayyagari, Demirgüç-Kunt and Maksimovic, 2011). However, recent studies based on GEM evidence have identified a U-shaped relationship between a country’s rate of entrepreneurial activity and its level of economic development (see Reynolds _et al_ ., 2001; Wennekers _et al_ ., 2005). Indeed, this evidence that new firm formation is very high in both highly developed and extremely poor countries opens the way to considering entrepreneurship as a multi-faceted concept, not necessarily associated with innovation, productivity growth and economic development. Indeed, only when ‘opportunity entrepreneurs’ (those motivated by innovative and progressive drivers) are distinguished from ‘necessity entrepreneurs’ (those who are selfemployed and pushed by defensive and regressive drivers, such as the fear of unemployment), a positive linear relationship between economic development and entrepreneurship seems to be restored (see Carree _et al_ ., 2007; Acs, Desai and Hessels, 2008; Acs, 2008)<sup>4</sup> . By the same token, when the focus is on DCs, a positive relationship

> 4 However, this positive relationship turns out to be barely significant and so the presence of a positive link between entrepreneurship and economic development in advanced economies is highly contested. Only when entrepreneurship is combined with other development indicators, the relation becomes significant; for instance, Acs and Szerb (2010 and 2012) have put forward a composite “Global Entrepreneurship & Development Index” where actual and potential individual entrepreneurial characteristics are combined with

5
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33
> <sup>12</sup>

market share of government-owned newspapers. However, evidence reported below shows that the negative effect of continuous years of competitive elections on government market share is robust to controls for leader tenure.

Government-owned newspapers might also be seen as a way to _increase_ the flow of information to citizens, for example if they are heavily subsidized and distributed below cost. There seem to be few examples where government newspapers are set up and managed for the purpose of providing unbiased information about, for example, the performance of elected officials. However, to the extent that this is true in some cases, estimates below will be biased towards rejecting the hypothesis that political credibility reduces government restrictions on citizen information.

# **_Measuring targeted government spending:  Public investment and the government wage bill_**

Government employment and public investment or infrastructure spending are traditional ways for governments to target benefits to particular constituencies. This is straightforward to see in the case of patronage in government employment, which benefits job holders and their families. The government wage bill as a fraction of GDP, taken (like public investment) from _Government Financial Statistics_ , tracks government spending on jobs and therefore offers a measure of government incentives to channel spending to targeted constituencies.

The fraction of society that benefits from a given public investment is more variable than jobs spending. Like education spending, public investment has both public good and targetable, private components. The key characteristic of public investment is not that its benefits are entirely private and targeted, but that relative to other categories of public spending, politicians can target a higher fraction of public investment undertaken every year. Most education spending, for example, is on teachers and other administrative staff. On the
## **On the weak exogeneity**

This subsection follows the example by Fisher (1993) with a slight modification. For simplicity, let both **x** _t_ and **x**<sup>_∗_</sup> _t_<sup>be scalars, and consider the VAR* model for a country (without</sup> country index _i_ ) One can reparameterize Equation (6) in terms of conditional and marginal models as: The error term of the conditional model becomes: where Ω= Σ11 _−_ Σ12Σ<sup>_−_</sup> 22<sup>1Σ21withΣsbeingthecorrespondingcovarianceelementsof</sup> ( **u**<sup>_′_</sup> 1 _t_<sup>_,_</sup><sup>**u**</sup> 2<sup>_′_</sup> _t_<sup>)</sup><sup>_′_.Then,theparametersinEquations(6),(7),and(8)arerelatedas:</sup> The short-run dynamic stability of the conditional model requires _θ_ 2 in Equation (7) to be _|θ_ 2 _| <_ 1. If this restriction is not imposed, the parameters of the conditional distribution _λ_ 1 = ( _θ_ 0 _, θ_ 1 _, θ_ 2 _, θ_ 3 _,_ Ω) and marginal distributions _λ_ 2 = ( **a** 2 _,_ Γ21 _,_ Γ22 _,_ Σ22) define a sequential cut between the conditional and the marginal models. Hence, weak exogeneity holds.

If the short-run dynamic stability is imposed, on the other hand, it implies _|_ Γ11 _−θ_ 1Γ21 _| <_ 1 due to cross-equation restrictions. Under this circumstance, _λ_ 1 and _λ_ 2 are no longer variation free. However, if Γ21 is zero, weak exogeneity still holds.

Following this insight, we have investigated the weak dependence of idiosyncratic shocks, and confirmed that pair-wise cross-section correlations of shocks are actually very weak.

# **References**

Ahuja, A. and A. Myrvoda (2012).“The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment,” _IMF Working Paper_ , WP/12/266.

Ahuja, A. and M. Nabar (2012). “Investment-Led Growth in China: Global Spillovers,” _IMF Working Paper_ , WP/12/267.

Caporale, G., M., and A. Girardi (2013). “Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area,” _Journal of International Money and Finance_ , 38 84, e1-e16.

Cesa-Bianchi, A., M. H. Pesaran, A. Rebucci, and T. Xu (2011). “China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America,” _IDB Working Paper Series_ No. IDB-WP-266.

36
Estrades, Maliszewska, Osorio-Rodarte, and Seara E Pereira. (2021) Figure 21. NTMs faced by Vietnam vis-à-vis RCEP members in 2020 and 2035 <!-- Start of picture text --> Public administration and services<br>Trade<br>Tourist services<br>Communications<br>Financial services and insurance<br>Business services<br>Air transport<br>Construction<br>Water transport<br>Road transport<br>Meat products<br>Food and beverages<br>Motor vehicles and parts<br>Crops<br>Wearing apparel and leather<br>Wood and paper products<br>Basic pharmaceuticals<br>Chemical, rubber, plastics<br>Textiles<br>Electrical equipment and machinery<br>Non metallic minerals<br>Other manufactures<br>Animal products<br>Other transport equipment<br>Other extraction<br>Metals<br>Petroleum, coal products<br>Fossil fuels<br>Total services<br>Total manufacturing<br>Total natural resources<br>Total agriculture<br>Total<br>0 20 40 60 80<br>2020 2035<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: NTMs in goods by Cadot et al. (2018) for NTMs in goods. For services, Hoekman and Shepherd (2019).

In the productivity kick scenario, manufacturing total exports (exports both for RCEP member countries and nonRCEP countries) expand the most (11.9 percent), mainly due to a faster expansion in the sectors of motor vehicles and parts, with an 18.6 percent increase relative to the baseline in 2035; textiles with a 16.2 percent increase relative to the baseline in 2035; and wearing apparel, with a 14.9 percent increase relative to the baseline in 2035, as can be seen in Figure 22 (LHS). Total agriculture increases by 9.1 percent, with meat products expanding by 14.8 percent. The higher increase of exports in these sectors is mainly the result of their high initial levels of faced NTMs and consequently, of experiencing the higher reductions of NTMs. The share of trade in meat products within RCEP member countries increases by 4 percent, while the share for motor vehicles and textiles increases by 2 percent compared with the baseline. The exports of some sectors decrease, mainly in the services and natural resources sector, with utilities (-7.7 percent), fossil fuels (-2.7 percent), and public administration and services (-1.8 percent) contracting the most.

In terms of imports, services expand the most, mainly due to their high level of initial NTMs, and thus having the highest reductions of NTMs (see Figure 22 RHS). Within the services sectors, trade and tourist services, in 2035, increase the most, by 22.9 percent and 22.8 percent, respectively, and relative to the baseline. Imports of wearing apparel and leather also increase significantly at 19 percent relative to the baseline. All sectors see an increase in imports (Figure 22, RHS).

27
$11,000) although it had diminished to 55,691 pesos ($2,800) by 2006. In Colima, the municipality and the school are encouraged to raise another 20,000 and 30,000 pesos ($1,000 and $1,500). The state government matches each peso raised by the local and school communities to contribute to the development of the improvement plan. Hence, the maximum benefit a school can receive in a year amounts to 150,000 pesos ($7,600).

The monetary benefits are complemented with permanent support from the state government in the implementation of the school improvement plan and in the management of the funds. In Colima, this support is channeled through the four regional teacher centers, the CMR. These centers are also in charge of providing adequate professional development through workshops, courses and seminars for teachers and principals. Similarly, the CMR run workshops and distribute leaflets and information materials to encourage parental participation in school matters and activities. Formal rules mandating the participation of parents in the school improvement plan are a requisite for school participation in the program.

# **Data and Trends**

This analysis uses data collected for the RCT and five additional sources of data: the National Evaluation of Academic Achievement in School Centers (ENLACE), the administrative PEC data, local administrative achievement data and the administrative School Census data (SCD- 911). The data set utilized in this analysis includes Math and Spanish test scores from ENLACE, PEC program information, and school inputs from SCD-911 in the school years 2001-2002 through 2012-2013. The Ministry of Education (ME) produces these sources of data. The last data set is the index of disadvantage ( _indice de marginalidad_ ), which is a weighted average of literacy, access to basic public utilities, household infrastructure and average wages. All localities are ranked with ratings from very high, high, medium, low, and very low disadvantage. The National Population Council ( _Consejo Nacional de Población_ , CONAPO) constructs this index.

Since the school year 2005-2006, the Ministry of Education has administered the National Evaluation of Academic Achievement in School Centers (ENLACE) nationwide. ENLACE was administered annually in April to early June. ENLACE has limitations for between grade comparison; for this reason, the analysis is based on within grade comparison in repeated cross sections.

Figure 4 depicts average school performance, defined as the average Math and Spanish scores from 3<sup>rd</sup> grade to 6<sup>th</sup> grade, from 2005 to 2012, schools participating in PEC are above the average performance of public general schools in Colima; non-PEC schools have a relatively lower performance than the average in the first years of the program.

11
for the three variables used. The question refers to the past two complete weeks of school and we can see that Vietnamese students are less likely to have been late for school, have fewer days of unexcused absence and skip fewer classes.<sup>3</sup> The final set of variables in Table 1 concerns parental background and wealth at the students’ home, including cultural resources and books at home which may work to stimulate cognitive development. The PISA database includes a number of indices to measure aspects such as wealth. These indices are based on underlying data regarding occupations and possessions. The scaling of raw data to indices is described in detail in the PISA technical report [OECD, 2014a]. For HISEI, which describes parental occupation status, the OECD mean is 50 and the OECD standard deviation is 15. Table 1 shows that HISEI for Dev7 parents stands at 40.42 and is thus much higher than 26.60 for Vietnamese parents. MISCED refers to the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) developed by UNESCO. Table 1 shows that the average level of mother’s education (MISCED) for Dev7 was just over 3, meaning Upper Secondary education, while for Vietnam the mean was just over 2, meaning Lower Secondary education. The WEALTH index is set for an OECD mean of zero and standard deviation of 1. Dev 7 countries wealth level was -1.5 and Vietnam’s was -2.1, which is consistent with the data regarding occupational classification and mother’s education. These findings indicate the close correlation of these variables with GDP per capita. Another interesting finding concerns the indices CULTPOS, cultural possessions and HEDRES, educational resources at home which have an OECD mean 0 and a standard deviation 1, as well as BOOK ~~N~~ , the number of books in family home. CULTPOS includes classical literature, books of poetry and works of art. HEDRES includes reference books and books to help with school work as well as a study desk and “a quiet place to study”. These three variables are also in line with per capita income - with the Dev7 mean being lower than the OECD mean, and Vietnam being lower than the Dev7 mean. One explanation regarding Vietnam’s PISA performance can probably be ruled out - it does not seem likely that Vietnamese households spend a disproportionately higher amount of their income on acquiring possessions such as books and other objects that would give their children an edge in life.

> indicates that Vietnam is a positive outlier on discipline and authority orientation[Dalton and Ong, 2005].

> 3In the student’s questionnaire, there is a telling question - student’s have to agree or disagree on a four point Likert scale to the statement “If I had different teachers, I would try harder at school.”. Converted into an index, the mean for Vietnam at 0.363 is lower than that for Dev7 at 0.525. This suggests a tendency in Vietnamese students for greater self-responsibility.

7
proposed eliminating the bidi tariff system and fixing prices at Tk 15.0 per pack; nonetheless, parliament reduced the price to Tk 12.5.<sup>8</sup> In sum, the current taxation system has neither discouraged consumption nor maximized revenue in Bangladesh. In the last decade, cigarette consumption, particularly the consumption of the cheaper brands, has expanded significantly. Since 2011, the volume in the low segment rose by an average of 26 percent, causing the market share to increase. Currently, the market share of the low segment accounts for nearly 77 percent of total volume, from 51 percent in fiscal year 2010–11; yet, it represents only 40 percent of the total revenue from cigarettes (World Bank 2017).

As the government considers tobacco-tax reform, particularly in the case of cigarettes, one argument that has been raised against the reform is that tobacco taxation is regressive because low-income households assign a larger share of their budgets to tobacco products. This note relies on information from the HIES 2016/2017 to (1) describe recent tobacco consumption patterns among households and (2) shed light on the distributional impacts of an increase in the price of cigarettes.

The study is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the data and some descriptive statistics. Section 3 describes the methodology. Sections 4 and 5 present the estimation results, and section 6 concludes.

# **2. Data**

This paper relies on the HIES 2016/17, a comprehensive, nationally representative survey collected between April 2016 and March 2017. The survey involved interviews among 46,000 households and gathered detailed information about household expenditure patterns, including on various tobacco products. The survey allows households to be categorized into consumption deciles from the poorest to the richest, thus permitting the simulation of the distributional impacts of a potential reform.

Approximately 65 percent of households reported in the HIES 2016/17 that they consumed tobacco products; 42 percent consumed smoked tobacco; and 45 percent consumed smokeless tobacco products. Many households consume exclusively either smoked tobacco (21 percent) or smokeless tobacco products (23 percent). An average of about 3 percent of total household consumption is allocated to tobacco products.

If one compares across consumption deciles (from the poorest 10 percent of households to the richest 10 percent), one finds that consumption patterns vary, though not dramatically (figure 2). The share of households consuming tobacco is not particularly different among the bottom 50 percent of the distribution, and it only declines slightly at higher consumption levels; across all deciles, more than two households in three consumes tobacco. Similarly, the share of tobacco expenditures in total

> 8 “Economy,” _Morning News Flash_ , July 2, 2017, Shanta Securities, Dhaka, Bangladesh, http://print.thefinancialexpressbd.com/2017/07/02/176701.

5