9 prevalence has increased (e.g., Thailand, Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil). While this trend will undoubtedly continue and even accelerate in countries where contraception is already well established,<sup>free or subsidized</sup> contraceptive services will continue to be required in countries which are at early stages<sup>of program</sup> development and/or where a substantial proportion of the population continues<sup>to live in poverty. Thus, no</sup> matter which basis one chooses for estimating future funding requirements,<sup>even assuming substantial</sup> increases in private demand and financing of contraception, it appears certain<sup>that large increases in donor</sup> financing, alongside even more substantial increases in the amounts budgeted<sup>by the countries themselves,</sup> will be required.

23. This growing unmet demant for family planning services in the face of relatively stagnant<sup>levels of</sup> external assistance means that many countries are seeking, and will likely increasingly<sup>seek, additional</sup> resources. In response, the Bank will have an opportunity to expand its support in<sup>many countries where it</sup> currently has PHN activities and extend it to other countries where such support has not<sup>been provided to date</sup> -- a topic that is addressed in greater detail in Section III below. In developing strategies<sup>for expanded Bank</sup> involvement in the population field, it is helpful to think in terms of a typology of countries,<sup>based on two</sup> broad factors: a) the "social setting" within which population programs operate; and<sup>b) the country's political</sup> commitmen **t** o fertility regulation and its capacity to deliver services -- what Lapham and<sup>Mauldin (1985)</sup> term "program effort." The "social setting" is a term that is meant to describe the<sup>conditions that are</sup> generally known to have the strongest indirect influence on fertility behavior -- particularly the<sup>role and status</sup> of women, including female education and employment outside the home, infant and young child<sup>mortality,</sup> and the distribution of access to economic opportunity (e.g., employment<sup>and services) -- or equity.</sup> Generally, the better a country's record on these social indicators, the more favorable the<sup>social setting will</sup> be in terms of couples' desire to limit family f 'ze, and hence, the demand for family planning services.' In many cases, this demand is confirmed by demographic and household surveys.

24. Program effort is more difficult to define, at least in quantitative terms. It is meant to<sup>characterize</sup> the will of the political leadership to moderate population growth rates and/or to provide<sup>contraceptive</sup> services. But the concept also includes a judgment about the country's ability<sup>to deliver those services</sup> effectively. While political will and administrative capacity are admittedly not the same thing,<sup>they are more</sup> often than not closely linked and, for purposes of the typology, can be combined in a single indicator. It has been pointed out that where political will outstrips the capacity to effectively deliver services, there is the danger that impatient political authorities will attempt to short-cut the administrative difficulties<sup>by turning</sup> to coercive measures or ethically objectionable incentives schemes. In the vast majority<sup>of cases, however,</sup> political will has led to the strengthening of administrative capacity -- hence the appropriateness<sup>of treating</sup> them together.

_25._ This conceptual framework can be presented as a four-fold matrix (the number<sup>of cells is arbitrary</sup> and can be expanded to create a more discriminating typology if desired since, in fact, each dimension<sup>is a</sup> continuum) which can be used to categorize countries (or regions within countries),<sup>as follows:</sup> 7The issue of differentials in contraceptive use is the subject of a PHRHN-sponsored study, "Impediments to Contraceptive Use and Fertility Decline in Different Environments," which is currently<sup>underway, and is</sup> scheduled for completion in 1992.