-  14  -

Reorientation in Bulgaria’s exports continued during the 2000-03 phase, with two important qualifications. First, in contrast to the preceding phase in 1996-99, which witnessed the collapse of exports to all markets except the EU, EFTA and aggregate market of CEEC-EU 2004 entrants, Bulgarian presence increased everywhere with a few notable exceptions—SEE-5 and CIS-12 (Table 7). While overall exports to SEE-5 stagnated, this was due solely to highly volatile exports to Serbia and Montenegro. Exports to Russia and Ukraine continued their downward trend, and the relevance of CIS markets has further declined. Their share fell from 19 percent in 1996 to 12 percent in 2000 and 3.6 percent in 2003.

**Table 7:** _Direction and dynamics of Bulgaria’s exports in 1996 and 1999-2003 (in millions of US dollars and percent)_

||(|in millio|ns ofUS|dollars)||Index 1999|Index 2000|.|(in|percen|t)||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||1996|2000|2001|2002|2003|1996=100|2000=100|1996|2000|2001|2002|2003|
|World|4,890|4,822|5,114|5,749|7,540|80|156|100|100|100|100|100|
|EU-15, of which|1,912|2,464|2,801|3,202|4,263|108|173|39.1|51.1|54.8|55.7|56.5|
|Germany|442|435|488|549|812|88|187|9.0|9.0|9.5|9.5|10.8|
|<br>Greece|348|376|449|529|782|97|208|7.1|7.8|8.8|9.2|10.4|
|Italy|493|684|765|886|1,057|112|155|10.1|14.2|15.0|15.4|14.0|
|CEEC-8, of which|118|122|135|168|239|111|195|2.4|2.5|2.6|2.9|3.2|
|Czech Republic|23|17|22|28|42|65|250|0.48|0.35|0.43|0.49|0.56|
|<br>Estonia|4|4|4|3|5|110|125|0.08|0.08|0.07|0.04|0.07|
|Hungary|25|29|33|39|63|98|219|0.51|0.59|0.65|0.67|0.83|
|<br>Latvia|6|7|6|7|9|125|134|0.13|0.14|0.11|0.12|0.12|
|Lithuania|13|6|8|8|11|48|183|0.26|0.12|0.15|0.14|0.14|
|Poland|31|28|35|41|62|94|224|0.64|0.57|0.68|0.72|0.82|
|Slovak Republic|11|6|9|18|18|69|320|0.24|0.12|0.17|0.31|0.24|
|<br>Slovenia|4|27|20|25|30|877|110|0.08|0.56|0.39|0.43|0.39|
|EFTA|46|55|65|104|55|118|235|0.94|1.13|1.27|1.82|1.70|
|Romania|75|88|129|160|230|73|261|1.54|1.82|2.52|2.78|3.05|
|Turkey|384|495|413|536|690|74|139|7.86|10.26|8.07|9.32|9.15|
|Pan-European (all<br>above)|2,535|3,224|3,543|4,170|5,477|114|170|51.8|66.9|69.3|72.5|72.6|
|SEE-5, of which|530|540|385|384|508|63|94|10.83|11.20|7.53|6.68|6.74|
|Albania|43|24|27|40|30|75|125|0.88|0.50|0.53|0.70|0.40|
|BiH|3|9|10|11|10|300|108|0.06|0.19|0.20|0.19|0.13|
|Croatia|13|5|6|16|44|45|944|0.27|0.10|0.11|0.27|0.59|
|Macedonia|149|110|113|126|155|70|141|3.04|2.28|2.22|2.18|2.05|
|Moldova|91|16|19|17|21|21|131|1.86|0.33|0.38|0.30|0.27|
|Serbia &Mont|231|376|209|174|249|71|66|4.73|7.80|4.09|3.03|3.30|
|CIS(11),of which|927|458|520|242|268|55|59|19.0|9.5|10.2|4.2|3.6|
|Russia|480|118|120|92|105|39|89|9.8|2.5|2.3|1.6|1.4|
|Ukraine|166|240|300|53|59|148|25|3.4|5.0|5.9|0.9|0.8|
|ROW|863|568|634|910|1,239|53|218|17.6|11.8|12.4|15.8|16.4|

Source: Derived from UN COMTRADE database as reported by Bulgaria.

Second, there has been a significant increase in Bulgarian supplies to markets of Central European countries, which once shared with Bulgaria membership in the long defunct CMEA, and now—except Romania—are members of the EU. Bulgarian exports to EU-2004 entrants almost doubled between 2000 and 2003 and to Romania almost tripled. Their aggregate share in Bulgaria’s exports rose from 4 percent in 1996 to 6 percent in 2002.

In all, the share of pan-European countries in Bulgaria’s exports increased from 53 percent in 1996 to 68 percent in 2000 and further expanded each year to reach 74 percent in 2003.

Similar trends, albeit less pronounced, were observable on the import side. First, Bulgaria’s imports shifted towards the EU but only since 1997. Its share in Bulgaria’s total imports grew from 35 percent in 1996 to 44 percent in 2000 to 50 percent in 2001 and remained at this level in 2002-03. While among EU members, Italy has been the major market for Bulgarian exports, Germany has been Bulgaria’s major supplier accounting for around 14 percent of total imports in 2000-03 (Table 8). In a similar vein, Bulgaria’s imports have also shifted