-  23  -

but not least, top 20 products accounted consistently for around half of Bulgarian EU-oriented exports (Table 16).

**Table 16** : _Top twenty four-digit SITC exporters to the EU in 2003 and their rankings in 1996, 1999 and 2002_

|SITC-4|Product|Exports (in<br>millions of US$)||Rank|ing in||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|||2003|2003|2002|1999|1996|
|6821|Copper and copper alloys, refined|349.9|1|1|1|1|
|8439|Other outer garments of textile fabrics|236.2|2|2|3|15|
|6727|Iron or steel coils for re-rolling|165.2|3|3|2|2|
|8510|Footwear|121.0|4|6|5|6|
|8451|Jerseys, pull-overs, twinsets, cardigan|115.3|5|5|10|9|
|3341|Motor spirit and other light oils|108.7|6|32|98|150|
|8462|Under garments, knitted of cotton|104.9|7|9|7|13|
|6123|Parts of footwear|100.7|8|7|13|8|
|8431|Coats and jackets of textile fabric|94.3|9|8|8|15|
|8423|Trousers, breeches etc|93.4|10|10|11|16|
|8435|Blouses of textile fabrics|88.4|11|11|10|14|
|8441|Shirts, men's, of textile fabrics|72.7|12|12|16|11|
|7492|Taps, cocks, valves etc.|69.7|13|13|15|50|
|8219|Other furniture and parts|59.7|14|16|21|48|
|8434|Skirts, women's, of textile fabrics|58.0|15|18|20|24|
|8429|Other outer garments of textile|56.3|16|17|18|21|
|8422|Suits, men's, of textile fabrics|54.0|17|15|23|34|
|6744|Sheets & plates, rolled >4.75mm|49.4|18|19|17|5|
|7731|Insulated, elect. wire, cable, bars|49.4|19|50|104|61|
|8424|Jackets,blazers of textile fabrics|48.8|20|23|26|17|
|Number|of items that were beyond top twenty of|the 2003 list|0|3|5|7|
|Share in|total EU-oriented exports||49%|48%|52%|46%|

Source: Based on EU Data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.

Yet, this conclusion may not be warranted. In fact, Bulgaria’s export expansion did not consist of merely exporting more of the same products. The evidence abound. First, as discussed earlier, the levers of export growth during the current phase have been medium to high technology products, with their share in manufactured exports rising 22 percent in 2000 to 27 percent in 2003. Under these conditions, it would appear that rather a considerable reshuffling in Bulgaria’s export offer has been taking place.

Indeed, the analysis of the group of top export performers in 2000-03 identified in terms of the degree processing confirms the observation about significant realignment in Bulgaria’s export offer (Table 17). The share of top export-products in EU-oriented exports rose rather spectacularly, albeit not unexpectedly given their at least 30 percent average growth per year in order to qualify for the status of fast grower, from 4 percent in 2000 to 16 percent in 2003. Simultaneously, the value of correlation coefficient between shares in Bulgaria’s EU-oriented exports of top twenty four-digit SITC products in 2000 and 2003 was relatively low at 0.49.

Machinery and parts together with consumer products have been major drivers of this growth. The difference between the composition of Bulgaria’s total EU-oriented exports and of ‘top performing’ exports stems largely from a discernible shift away from traditional production inputs to higher value added machinery and parts. Leaving aside 2002, when the one-year surge in exports of sunflower seeds and wheat raised the share of foods and feeds in Bulgaria’s exports, the share of traditional inputs fell from 31 percent in 2000-01 to 27 percent in 2003. This share was in 2003 five percentage points higher than the share of traditional inputs in Bulgaria’s total EU-oriented exports, which stood at 22 percent. But the share of machinery and parts in total exports of top performers of 38 percent is well above that in Bulgaria’s total EU-oriented exports in 2003, which amounted to ‘only’ 13 percent. The difference in the shares of consumer goods in two export baskets was even larger: 35 percent as compared with 65 percent for total EU-oriented