Pago 4 kfe =MfeKg: r net flows minus interest payments. Nogn-flows: changes in stocks le_s net flows.

At the end of 1988, Sub-Saharan<sup>Africa's total long-term dphtto all</sup> external lenders stood at $118 billion. According<sup>to the WDTs, commercial banks accounted</sup> for $22 billion of these stocks,<sup>as compared with $44 billion for official export</sup> credit agencies and suppliers, and<sup>$52 billion for concessional lenders and the</sup> JBRD (Tables 2-3).

Until 1970, commercial bank debt<sup>stocks had remained at relatively insignificant</sup> levels: governments relied mainly<sup>on donor credits and internally generated</sup> foreign exchange to finance economic<sup>expansion. The sharp increase in oil and</sup> primary commodity prices at different<sup>times in the 1970s reversed this trend.</sup> As the Sub-Saharan African countries<sup>were perceived to become generally more</sup> creditworthy and petrodollars more<sup>available, commercial credit expanded.</sup> The WDTs report that commercial<sup>bank long-term debt stocks, which stood at $430</sup> million in 1970, rose to $13<sup>billion in 1980 and to a further $18 billion in</sup> 1982. They remained relatively stable<sup>in the $17-18 billion range until 1987,</sup> when, largely due to a depreciation<sup>of the U.S. dollar and formal reschedulings</sup> of interest arrears in a number<sup>of countries, stocks increased to $22-23 billion</sup> (Table 4).

In sharp contrast, the Bank for International<sup>Settlements (BIS) places end-1988</sup> commercial bank long-term debt<sup>stocks at only Sll billion in its semi-annual</sup> reports on The Maturity and Sectoral<sup>DLstribution of International Bank Lending.</sup> The BIS statistics were derived by subtracting<sup>the column 'Cross-Border Claims-</sup> -Total" from the column "Cross-Border<sup>Claims--Up to and Including One Year".</sup> The ainual OECD External Debt Statistics<sup>of the Organization for Economic</sup> Cooperation and Development reports k16 biJlion of these stocks at en".-1988 (Table 12), entitled "Other Bank Claims--Long-Term".

The divergences shown in Table 12<sup>between these three statistical sources, due</sup> to the different methodologies and<sup>sources being used, are very substantial, both</sup> in the aggregate and on a country-by-country<sup>basis. For example, for C6te</sup> d'Ivoire, the OECD shows $2 billion<sup>outstanding at end-1988, the BIS reports</sup> $1.55 billion and the WDTs $6.8 billion.<sup>For Sudan the figures are $1 billion,</sup> $192 million and $1.8 billion<sup>respectively. Since the BIS relies on information</sup> supplied largely by the banks<sup>themselves, its figures should be taken more as</sup> an indication of (a) the book<sup>value of these assets after the provisioning</sup> exercises of recent years and<sup>(b) the extent to which the banks view their loans</sup> as African "country risk," than<sup>as a profile of legally outstanding obligations.</sup> In any case, there are many reasons<sup>for the divergences. Both the figures and</sup> some of the definitions provided<sup>in the various publications can be misleading</sup> to the casual reader.