existing EWS that have been developed in Ethiopia can be used to inform early action, and based on the continued collection of EWS data and continued improvements to the corresponding tools, there is scope for using EWS to inform an early and timely drought response.

The paper is structured as follows: section 2 will present the policy and institutional background for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Ethiopia. Section 3 will provide an overview of the existing drought response framework within Ethiopia. Section 4 presents existing early warning tools in Ethiopia, in particular, the LEAP and LIAS tools, as well as the GoE’s bottom-up early warning framework, hotspots assessments and the use of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Section 5 investigates the timing of the availability of early warning information, as opposed to the HRD appeal process, and links this to the Ethiopian seasons. It discusses also the welfare benefits of an early drought response. Section 6 discusses and concludes.

# II. Policy and institutional background

Recognizing the need to systematically address drought risks and to protect Ethiopians from the loss of lives, livelihoods and income, the GoE has taken significant steps to systematically manage disaster risks. Efforts to manage drought risks date back to 1974, when the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) was established in the aftermath of the severe 1973 drought. In 1995, the RRC was transformed into the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC). The strategic oversight of DRM in Ethiopia was vested in the National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee (NDPPC), with the DPPC acting as NDPPC’s Secretariat to implement DRM policies and decisions. In 2004, DPPC was renamed the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and given narrower responsibilities to focus on emergency response, while a new Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB) was created to address issues of chronic food insecurity<sup>18</sup> .

In 2007, as part of a government-wide Business Process Re-engineering (BPR), the GoE transferred the responsibilities of the DPPA to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD<sup>19</sup> ), which led the establishment of the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS). The responsibilities for strategic oversight of DRM within Ethiopia were vested in DRMFSS, and its responsibilities included coordinating DRM activities across line ministries involved in integrating DRM at the sectoral level. DRMFSS was composed of the Early Warning and Response Directorate (EWRD) and the Food Security Coordination Directorate (FSCD). The institutional landscape for DRM in Ethiopia has recently undergone further change, with the creation of the National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) as an autonomous federal government office accountable to the Prime Minister. The role of NDRMC is to lead the implementation of the National Disaster Risk Management Policy. The responsibilities vested in DRMFSS have been separated, such that the EWRD has been included in the new NDRMC and the FSCD forms part of the MoANR under the new Rural Job Creation and Food Security sector.

At the policy level, the GoE has developed a National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk Management (NPDRM) in 2013, and has recently developed the Disaster Risk Management Strategic Programme and Investment Framework (DRM-SPIF). Key goals of the NPDRM include the enhancement of Ethiopia’s

> 18 World Bank and GFDRR (2011).

> 19 In 2015, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development was renamed Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MoANR), with a separate ministry created for the livestock and fisheries sectors, which are now governed by the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries (MoLF).

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