Tahle 12 47

# THE IMPACT OF 20 PERCENT SUSTAINED INCREASE IN OIL PRICES

# PERCENTAGE DEVIATION FROM THE BASELINE UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

|.______<br>..-..-..-..-<br>_.--.._-__--_----......--------......----....-.-------___________________-.....<br>--|---------.......-....-.....--...-..-..--<br><br>_---------------_-_----<br>|-...-..____.______________<br>----------_-._,----_-_,--<br>|___<br>---__-_-_-_----||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||1988|1989|1990|1991|1992|1993|
|SMALL tNDUSTRIAL<br>COUNTRIES:|||||||
|REAL GNP<br>........................|... 0.01|0.15|0.13|0.11|0.07|<br>0.06|
|REAL ONMESTIC<br>DEND ..............|.<br>-0.2|-0.08|-0.04|-0.02|<br>-0.04|<br>-0.05|
|GNP DEFLATOR I/<br>..................|..<br>0.15|0.28|0.37|0.41|0.39|<br>0.36|
|SH TERM INTEREST<br>RATE.NOMINAL<br>2/<br>...|<br>0.06|0.11|0.15|0.19|0.23|<br>0.27|
|EXCHANGE<br>RATE<br>....................|.. -1.11|-1.21|-1.33|-1.47|<br>-1.62|<br>-1.77|
|TOTAL IMPORTS<br>VOLUME|-026|-034|023|12|<br>|<br>|
|.<br> <br>.............|.<br>.|.|-.|-0.|<br>-0.08|<br>-0.06|
|TOTAL EXPORTS.<br>VOLUME<br>.............<br>|.<br>0.22|0.19|0.17|0.l8|0.19|<br>0.21|
|TRADE BALANCE.<br>VALUE 3/<br>............|<br>-1.55|-0.4|-1.08|-1.74|<br>-1.8|-1.57|
|TERMS OF TRADE<br>...........<br>........|.. -0.55|-0.46|-0.39|-0.32|<br>-0.28|<br>-0.24|
|CURRENT<br>ACCOUNT BALANCE<br>(SUS) 3/<br>...<br> <br>|<br>-0.49<br>|0.45<br>|-0.02<br>|-0.53<br>|<br>-0.65<br> <br>|<br>-0.62<br> <br>|
|TOTAL REAL NET PRIVATE<br>WEALTH 4/<br>...|<br>-13.11|-7.43|-5.07|-3.65|<br>-2.42|<br>-0.98|
|GOV. FINANCIAL<br>BALANCE<br>4/|.......<br>I.|...<br>S<br>I<br>I .9|2.68|4.1|5.38|<br>6.43|
|DEVELOPING<br>COUNTRIES:|||||||
|REAL GDP<br>........................|...<br>8<br>-<br>O.<br>O|<br> <br>-0.14|-0.18|-0.22|<br>-0.25|<br>-0.28|
|REAL DOMESTIC<br>ABSORPTION<br>...........|<br>0.12|0.12|0.08|0.03|-0.02|<br>-0.07|
|REAL GROSS INVESTMENT<br>.............|.<br>0.68|0.78|0.78|0.74|0.69|<br>0.63|
|GNP DEFLATOR<br>1/<br>.0.48||0.14|0.2|0.27|0.31|<br>0.33|
|TL CON. EXP. INCL. PUBLIC<br>.-|0.01|-0.04|-0.08|-0.13|<br>-0.19|<br>-0.24|
|STOCK OF DEBT<br>....................|..<br>0.09|0.27|0.44|0.61|0.78|<br>0.97|
|STOCK OF NET DEBT<br>.-|0.2|-0.25|-0.24|-0.21|<br>-0.18|<br>-0.14|
|NET FOREIGN<br>ASSETS 3/<br>.2.3<br>||2.96|3.07|2.92|<br>2.6|<br><br>2.12|
|VOLCME<br>Of TOTAL IMPORTS<br>.0.62||0.67|0.59|0.44|0.28|<br>0.12|
|VOLLME<br>OF TOTAL EXPORtS<br>.-|0.34|-0.56|-0.66|-0.72|<br>-0.79|<br>-0.85|
|TRADE BALANCE.<br>VALUE 3.5/<br>.2.52||1.06|0.86|1.08|<br>1.17|<br>1.29|
|TERMS OF TRADE<br>.1.33||1.33|1.3|1.24|<br>1.13|<br>1.02|
|NET INTEREST<br>PYMT 3.6/<br>............|.<br>0.|0.18|0.51|0.96|1.19|<br>1.46|
|CURRENT<br>ACCOUNT BALANCE<br>3/<br>.2.3||0.66|0.11|-0.15|<br>-0.32|<br>-0.48|
|HIGH INCOME<br>OIL PRODUCERS:|||||||
|REAL GOP<br>........................|...- 0.53|-0.93|-1.28|-1.62|<br>-1.99|<br>-2.36|
|REAL DOMESTIC<br>ABSORPTION .<br>.0.22||0.31|0.31|0.23|0.05|<br>-0.19|
|NET FOREIGN<br>ASSETS 3/ .<br>.11.11||22.68|34.91|4802|<br>6213|<br>775|
|<br> <br> <br>VOLUME<br>OF TOTAL IMPORTS .<br>.0.48|<br>|<br>0.68|<br>0.69|.<br>0.5|<br>.<br>0.12|<br>.<br> <br>-0.43|
|VOLUME<br>Of TOTAL EXPORTS .<br>.-|1.45|-2.5|-3.39|-4.21|<br>-5.03|<br>-5.83|
|TRADE BALANCE.<br>VALUE 3.5/<br>.11.01||<br>10.51|<br>10.08|<br> <br>9.82|<br> <br>9.75|<br><br> <br>9.93|
|TERMS OF TRADE<br>.<br>.16.45||16.67|16.6|16.47|<br>16.3|16.13|
|CURRENT<br>ACCOUNT BALANCE<br>3/<br>.11.11||11.57|12.23|13.11|<br>14.1|15.38|
|INTERNATIONAL<br>PRICES 7/:|||||||
|PRICE OF OIL IN DOLLARS<br>.20.||20.|20.|20.|20.|20.|
|PRICE INDEX<br>OF COMMODITIES<br>.-|0.79|-0.59|-0.25|0.05|0.24|<br>0.38|

1/ INFLATION OtFFERENCE FROM THE BASELINE.

3/ DIFFERENCE FROM THE BASELINE.

5/ NEGATIVE NUMBERS ARE DEFICIT AND POSITIVE NUMBERS ARE SURPLUS. IN BILLIONS OF US DOLLARS.

6/ NEGATIVE NUMBERS ARE REDUCTION AND POSITtVE NUMBERS ARE INCREASE IN INTEREST PAYMENTS. IN BILLIONS OF US DOLLARS. 7/ DENOMINATED INDICES IN TERMS OF US DOLLARS. 1980-1.