# <u>Table 2. Baseline impacts of GSP LDC and AGOA and robustness checks</u>

|||Da|<br>ta at exporting|country-HS 6-digi<br>Dependen|t-year level (inclu<br>t variable is:|ding zeros) is us|ed||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Log|<br>Log|Dummy for|Log|<br>Log|<br>Log|<br>Log|<br>Log|
||(US imports + 1)|(US imports + 1)|positive US<br>imports|(US imports + 1)<br>Excluding OECD|<br>(US imports + 1)<br> Excluding non-<br>GSP|(US imports + 1)<br>Excluding China|(US imports + 1)<br> Controlling for<br>competition|(US imports + 1)<br>1998-2006|
||Baseline<br>(1)|Baseline<br>(2)|Baseline<br>(3)|Robustness<br>(4)|Robustness<br>(5)|Robustness<br>(6)|Robustness<br>(7)|Robustness<br>(8)|
|GSP LDC * Africa|0.215***|0.114***|0.008***|0.063***|0.102***|0.116***|-0.006|0.033***|
||(11.49)|(6.70)|(5.60)|(5.29)|(6.06)|(6.90)|(-0.77)|(3.90)|
|GSP LDC * Non-Africa|0.004|-0.046*|-0.005**|-0.084***|-0.051**|-0.044*|-0.159***|-0.092***|
||(0.22)|(-2.43)|(-2.95)|(-4.97)|(-2.74)|(-2.34)|(-5.92)|(-3.70)|
|AGOA Non-LDC|0.105***|0.027|-0.0001|-0.009|0.026|0.028|-0.019|-0.005|
||(6.49)|(1.86)|(-0.06)|(-0.71)|(1.77)|(1.90)|(-1.52)|(-0.35)|
|AGOA Non-apparel|0.210***|0.0633|0.0008|0.018|0.061|0.059|-0.019|0.007|
||(4.66)|(1.74)|(0.26)|(0.59)|(1.58)|(1.63)|(-0.49)|(0.23)|
|AGOA apparel|0.254***|0.200***|0.012***|0.185***|0.180***|0.198***|0.168***|0.275***|
||(5.40)|(4.78)|(3.63)|(4.47)|(4.42)|(4.74)|(3.88)|(8.23)|
|Competition-adjusted relative|||||||||
|preference margin|||||||0.530***<br>(4.73)||
|Indicator for MFA quota|||||||0.799***<br>(11.49)||
|Average MFA quotas on competitors|||||||0.567<br>(1.04)||
|Treatment group-specific time trends|No|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Country-product fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Country-year fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Product-year fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Notes: Robust t-statistics in p<br>Observations|arentheses cl<br>27,420,560|ustered by H<br>27,420,560|S 6-digit pr<br>27,420,560|oduct. *** *<br>22,944,154|* and * ind<br>17,677,794|icate signific<br>27,288,901|ance at 1%<br>21,904,250|5% and 10%<br>9,491,040|

Notes: Robust t-statistics in parentheses, clustered by HS 6-digit product. ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% confidence levels, respectively. Estimates for Eq. (1) shown in columns (2)-(8) and for a variant of Eq. (1) excluding treated groupspecific time trends in column (1).

<u>Table 3. AGOA and redirection of African exports</u>

||<br> <br>Dat|<br> <br>a at country-HS 6<br>D|<br> <br> <br>-digit-year level (in<br>ependent variable|<br> <br> <br>cluding zeros) is us<br>is:|<br> <br>ed|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Log<br>(US imports + 1)|Log<br>(EU imports<br>+ 1)|<br> <br>Log<br>(US imports + 1)|<br>Log<br>(EU+ROW imports<br>+ 1)|<br> <br>Log<br>(US + EU + ROW<br>imports + 1)|
||COMEX|data|WITS/COM|TRADE data|WITS/COMTRADE|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|
|GSP LDC * Africa|0.126***|0.053***|0.125***|0.081***|0.075***|
||(6.79)|(4.57)|(6.81)|(5.08)|(3.95)|
|GSP LDC * Non-Africa|-0.033|0.031**|-0.036|0.047**|-0.037|
||(-1.67)|(2.78)|(-1.86)|(3.03)|(-1.88)|
|AGOA Non-LDC|0.031|-0.004|0.038*|0.019|-0.001|
||(1.94)|(-0.43)|(2.43)|(1.28)|(-0.07)|
|AGOA Non-apparel|0.059|0.028|0.070|0.078**|0.096**|
||(1.56)|(1.36)|(1.79)|(2.64)|(2.72)|
|AGOA apparel|0.202***|-0.067***|0.196***|-0.116***|0.127***|
||(5.04)|(-6.54)|(4.73)|(-9.42)|(3.38)|
|Treatment group-specific time trends|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Country-product fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Country-year fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Product-year fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|24,588,684|24,588,684|25,445,675|25,445,675|25,445,675|

Notes: Robust t-statistics in parentheses, clustered by HS 6-digit product. ***, **, and * indicate significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% confidence levels, respectively. Estimates for Eq. (1) with alternative dependent variables shown. The estimating sample covers years 1992-2016 and excludes all 28 EU countries from the control group in all columns.

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