initial labor market conditions can have important long-term effects on the earnings of college graduates. In addition, some studies look at the link between historical events, such as economic shocks, and beliefs. The underlying idea is that historical events shape people’s beliefs and perceptions. For instance, Friedman and Schwartz (1963) find that the Great Depression basically shattered the depression generation’s confidence in the future of capitalism. In similar fashion, Cogley and Sargent (2008) define macroeconomic shocks, such as the Great Depression, as belieftwisting events. According to them, the effects of these shocks can be long-lasting because it takes time to correct the pessimistic perceptions induced precisely by the shocks. On taxation, Piketty (1995) argues that shocks can alter people’s beliefs about the relative importance of luck versus effort as a driver of success and therefore on the amount of taxes they vote for. Most importantly, on income inequality, Piketty (1995) shows that, when people are young and start with the same beliefs, they put forth the same effort. Therefore, inequality only results from the shocks people experience. Piketty basically argues that, as time passes, people who have experienced negative shocks may become discouraged and, as a consequence, supply less effort. Less effort may take the form, for instance, of less labor supply, which eventually translates into low earnings.

In addition to the long-term impact of shocks, other studies emphasize the developmental stage of the affected individuals at the time the shocks occur. Thus, Elder (1999), in an analysis of the Great Depression in the United States, finds that the effect depended partly on the developmental stage of the individual at the time of the economic shock. Furthermore, in applying the impressionable years hypothesis to economics, Giuliano and Spilimbergo (2014) examine whether experiencing a recession during early adulthood permanently alters one’s preference for redistribution.<sup>6</sup> They use pooled cross-sectional data from the 1972–2010 General Social Survey, along with other data sets, and find that individuals who experienced a recession when young (ages 18–25) come to believe that success in life depends more on luck than effort.<sup>7</sup> These individuals also had a statistically significant preference for redistribution. Following Guiliano and Spilimbergo (2014), one may wonder how exposure to adverse shocks in early adulthood may contribute to inequality in outcomes among individuals, say income.

Taken together, these findings imply not only that adverse experiences shape people’s beliefs and have long-lasting impacts on outcomes among individuals, but also the development stage of these individuals at the time of the shocks is equally important. As a consequence, shocks associated with brute luck, such as civil wars, and the development stage of the affected individuals should be jointly accounted for in analyses of inequality of opportunity. The paper aims to document the extent to which the experience of violent conflict (associated with brute luck) in early adulthood contributes to inequality in labor earnings in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which represents

> 6 Giuliano and Spilimbergo (2014) are among the first to explicitly apply the impressionable years hypothesis to economic issues.

> 7 The other data sets are the National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972 and the WVS (World Values Survey) (database), King's College, Old Aberdeen, United Kingdom, http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp.

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