# **Table 6: Combined effect of transport cost and conflict on local GDP**

||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|VARIABLES|OLS (Full sample)|IV (Full sample)|OLS (rural only)|IV (rural only)|
|ln(Cost to Market)|-0.00253|-0.104***|-0.00328|-0.0974***|
||(-0.495)|(-8.984)|(-0.639)|(-8.062)|
|Dummy: Conflict is high=1|0.212***|-1.251***|0.204***|-1.248***|
||-6.188|(-7.353)|(5.700)|(-6.540)|
|ln(Cost to Market)*Dummy: Conflict is high|-0.0540***|0.324***|-0.0524***|0.334***|
||(-5.326)|-4.392|(-4.965)|-4.297|
|ln(Population)|0.531***|0.527***|0.528***|0.525***|
||(170.3)|(159.2)|(169.9)|(162.0)|
|ln(Population)^2|0.0359***|0.0358***|0.0366***|0.0362***|
||(128.8)|(120.0)|(128.1)|(120.4)|
|ln(Cassava potential yield)|0.500***|0.436***|0.558***|0.502***|
||(5.813)|(4.830)|(6.506)|(5.608)|
|ln(Cassava potential yield)^2|-0.0374***|-0.0329***|-0.0427***|-0.0390***|
||(-5.901)|(-4.983)|(-6.761)|(-5.938)|
|ln(Maize potential yield)|0.438***|0.489***|0.356**|0.398**|
||(2.919)|(3.102)|(2.385)|(2.552)|
|ln(Maize potential yield)^2|-0.0411***|-0.0462***|-0.0332***|-0.0372***|
||(-3.611)|(-3.879)|(-2.931)|(-3.152)|
|ln(Groundnut potential yield)|-0.330***|-0.300***|-0.316***|-0.279***|
||(-6.398)|(-5.293)|(-6.168)|(-4.975)|
|ln(Groundnut potential yield)^2|0.0430***|0.0413***|0.0414***|0.0385***|
||(8.423)|(7.347)|(8.162)|(6.936)|
|ln(Distance to mine)|-0.0771***|-0.0529***|-0.0718***|-0.0486***|
||(-13.69)|(-7.205)|(-12.68)|(-6.612)|
|Province fixed effects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|26,330|26,330|26,179|26,179|
|R-squared|0.920|0.914|0.916|0.911|
|Sargan statistic (overidentification test of all<br>instruments):||108.047||104.147|
|||0.0000||0.0000|
|t-statistics in parentheses|||||
|***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1|||||
|Data: Nighttime Lights local GDP, Ghosh (2010)|||||

# **First stage results:**

|||**Full Sample**|||**Rural only**||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|
|Depedentent variables:|ln(Cost to<br>Market)|Dummy:<br>Conflict is high|ln(Cost to<br>Market)*Dumm<br>y: Conflict is<br>high|ln(Cost to<br>Market)|Dummy:<br>Conflict is<br>high|ln(Cost to<br>Market)*Dum<br>my: Conflict is<br>high|
|First stage results|||||||
|ln(Natural historical Path)|0.985***|-0.823***|-1.07***|0.9091***|-0.850***|-1.23***|
||(23.540)|(-17.04)|(-6.54)|(20.560)|(-16.7)|(-7.12)|
|Fractionalization|0.010***|-0.010***|-0.022***|0.01***|-0.010***|-0.023***|
||(7.640)|(-6.68)|(-4.25)|(7.760)|(-6.52)|(-4.37)|
|(Fractionalization index)^2|-0.0001***|0.0001***|0.0002***|-0.00009***|0.0001***|0.0003***|
||(-6.67)|(7.210)|(4.320)|(-6.67)|(6.600)|(4.400)|
|Distance to east border|0.0185*|-0.192***|-0.258***|-0.0016|-0.198***|-0.298***|
||(1.700)|(-15.29)|(-6.06)|(-0.14)|(-14.84)|(-6.58)|
|ln(Natural historical Path)*Fractionalization|-0.003***|0.003***|0.007***|-0.0029759***|0.003***|0.007***|
||(-8.1)|(7.130)|(4.910)|(-8.19)|(6.970)|(5.020)|
|ln(Natural historical Path)*(Fractionalization index)^2|0.00003***|-0.00004***|-0.0001***|0.000031***|-0.00004***|-0.0001***|
||(7.760)|(-8.18)|(-5.56)|(-7.72)|(-7.58)|(-5.64)|
|ln(Natural historical Path)*Distance to east border|-0.004|0.052***|0.062***|0.0016|0.053***|0.073***|
||(-1.36)|(14.630)|(5.190)|(-0.49)|(14.270)|(5.770)|
|Angrist-Pischke Test of weak indentification|||||||
|F(4, 26306)|18599.38|218.77|58.99|18171.91|213.06|63.55|
|Prob>F|P-value=.0000|P-value=.0000|P-value=.0000|P-value=.0000|P-value=.0000|P-value=.0000|
|t-statistics in parentheses|||||||
|***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1|||||||
|Data: Nighttime Lights local GDP, Ghosh (2010)|||||||

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