|•<br>Using these teachers’ numbers, estimate the number of teacher positions needed in future to|maintain the target PTR|
|---|---|
|•<br>Calculate how many more or fewer teachers are needed per calculated required teacher posi<br>of 2020|tions versus the current number of teachers as|
|Step5. Estimate teacher replacement needs due to teacher attrition in EAP MICs<br>||
|•<br>Use the indicator “teacher attrition rate from primary education, both sexes (%)” to estimat<br>annually, from World Bank EdStats or data obtained from countries<sup>7</sup>|e how many teachers will need to be replaced|
|Step6. Estimate total teacher recruitment needs in EAP MICs<br>•<br>Estimate total teacher recruitment needs by considering the increase/decrease in teacher pos<br>in the year 2030 (a target year of SDG4)|itions and teacher replacement due to attrition|
|Step7. Conduct robustness checks under different scenarios<br>•<br>Conduct robustness checks under two scenarios:<br>`o`<br>i)**High 2020 Teacher Stock Scenario**“more teachers who are already in teachin<br>`o`<br>ii)**Low 2020 Teacher Stock Scenario**“fewer teachers who are already in teachin<br>in 2030”|g workforce in 2020 remain teaching in 2030”<br>g workforce in 2020 remain in teaching force|
|**B. Robustness check**||
|**Indicators**<br>**Base Scenario**<br>**High 2020 Teacher Stock**<br>**Scenario – lower attrition**|**Low 2020 Teacher Stock**<br>**Scenario – higher attrition and**<br>**higher PTR**|
|Teacher attrition rate for<br>projection period (up to<br>2040)<br>1. Countries with data for at<br>least one year between 2015<br>and 2019.<br>-> Use country data (median<br>of 2015 to 2019), except<br>Malaysia (use 2%).<br>1. Use 0.4 for all countries (0.4<br>is the lowest rate observed in<br>the region between 2015 and<br>2019).|1. Countries with data for at least<br>one year between 2015 and<br>2019.<br>-> Use country data (median<br>2015 to 2019) + 1%.<br>2. Countries without data|
|2. Countries without data<br>between 2015 and 2020.<br>-> Use 2.38% (median of<br>available data for EAP<br>region, excluding Myanmar,<br>between 2015 and 2019.|between 2015 and 2020.<br>-> Use 3.4% (higher than base by<br>1%), except for Indonesia. Use<br>7.9% (6.9% + 1%) for Indonesia.|
|PTR in 2040<br>25 or lower<br>25 or lower|30 or lower|

# IV. Main findings from the simulation: Stock and flow of primary teachers in EAP MICs in 2030

## A. Projected changes in teacher position needs vary widely across the region

Significant heterogeneity exists across the 22 EAP countries with respect to primary education teacher position needs by 2030. Only six countries – mainly in East Asia – are projected to need fewer teachers overall in the next 10 years, while most countries will need to expand their teacher workforce (especially

> 7 For UIS data, teacher attrition rate is calculated as “the number of leavers is estimated by subtracting the number of teachers in year t from those in year t-1 and adding the number of new entrants to the teaching workforce in year t. The attrition rate is the number of leavers expressed as a percentage of the total number of teachers in year t-1.” UIS website

> (http://uis.unesco.org/en/glossary-term/teacher-attrition-rate-education-level).

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