- The volume of global exports increases by 1.7 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline), translating to an increase of some $565 billion (in $2014).

- Most of the increase in exports occurs in the BRI area ($438 billion), which witnesses an increase in exports of some 2.8 percent. The largest increases in exports in percentage terms include Thailand (14.9%), Malaysia (12.4%), and Pakistan (9.8%). Not all BRI regions benefit in terms of trade growth, for example Rest of Eastern Europe sees a negligible increase, ECU (-0.7%), Poland (-0.4%), Nepal (-0.2%) and the Arab Republic of Egypt (-0.2%) see export declines.

- The non-BRI area shows a small increase in terms of exports (0.7%), with Latin America (-0.5%) and Rest of Western Europe with negative values. The highest percentage growth in exports in the Non-BRI Area is Ethiopia (3.9%).

- Import growth is higher than export growth, as the iceberg parameter directly benefits import and indirectly export growth through lower cost of imported inputs. At the global level, import growth is 3.4 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline), evaluating to over $1,153 billion (in $2014 prices).

- Thailand (21.4%), Malaysia (18.5%) and Kyrgyz Republic (17.5%) witness the highest import growth. There are modest declines for ECU, but sizeable increases for Pakistan, Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

- The United States, and Rest of High-Income countries sees the bulk of the import increase for the non-BRI area, with negligible gains for Latin America.

Table 8a and 8b provide the detailed changes in export volumes in both percentage and level terms (relative to the baseline in 2030). The key findings include: Agricultural exports by the BRI area increase by 2 percent. China sees a large decrease in the exports of coal (-9.4%), but with gas increasing (3.5%), albeit from a relatively low base. The results for the other regions within the BRI area are variegated—depending on the source of the reduction in value of the time of trade and relative comparative advantage. Most of the large movements occur in manufacturing and extraction exports, though with some exceptional changes in agriculture in some cases. Lao PDR stands out as a country that would see a significant boom in a number of sectors—particularly in the extractive sectors and metal products. Another big beneficiary would be leather goods exports from the Kyrgyz Republic, increasing by over 150 percent.

- Export growth for the non-BRI regions has a negligible increase of 0.7%, with most of the dollar gains occurring in agriculture and wood products. The United States nonetheless sees a significant gain in electronics exports (14.9%).

As highlighted earlier, import changes in 2030 outstrip export changes. Table 9a and 9b show the corresponding figures for import changes (relative to the baseline in 2030):

- For the BRI area in aggregate, import growth is growing across all activities. Sectors with high import growth include electronics, construction, agriculture, and petroleum. Countries with high manufacturing import growth include Thailand and China. There are individual sectors experiencing big gains such as wood products imports by Pakistan (48.3%).

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