The annual growth rate of indicator 1 is fastest if the growth is measured by changes in the last three years. According to figure 5, the number of countries with two or more poverty data points has increased by four every year in the last three years (or more precisely, from 85 between 1999-2008 to 98 between 2002-11).

The annual growth rate of indicator 2 is the fastest if the growth is measured by changes in the last ten years. The number of countries with three or more poverty data points has increased by 1.5 annually for the last ten years. However, if growth is measured by changes in the last three years, it remained virtually unchanged.

Figure 5 shows projections of Indicators 1 and 2 into 2030 based on different growth scenarios. If both indicators grew at the pace of the last three years, all countries would have two or more poverty data points in ten year intervals, while 68 countries would have three or more poverty data points.<sup>11</sup> If both indicators grew at the pace of the last five years, 146 countries would have two or more poverty data points in ten year intervals by 2030, while 81 countries would have three or more poverty data points. Finally, if both indicators grew at the pace of the last ten years, in 2030 around 131 countries would have two or more poverty data points while 86 countries would have three or more poverty data points.

Based on these projections, we propose the following targets:

- Target 1: _End “Data Deprivation” by 2030. All countries will have two or more poverty data points in the last ten years by 2030._<sup>_12_</sup>

- Target 2: _86 countries will have three or more poverty data points in ten years by 2030._

Both targets are set using the best case scenarios; the pace of growth in the last three years is used for setting the target for Indicator 1 while the pace of growth in the last ten years is used for setting the target for Indicator 2. The target for Indicator 1 implies that alongside setting the goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030, the World Bank also would set the goal of ending data deprivation by 2030. It is not an exaggeration to assert that to ensure the end of extreme poverty, the end of data deprivation is critical. It might be attractive to set a more aggressive target 2. For example, a target could be set to push all the 35 countries that currently collect two data points in ten years (between 2002-11) to collect three of more data points. While perhaps appealing intuitively, setting such a target would have to make a clear break with historical trends.

The targets are indeed ambitious. One way to capture the challenge is to see how many extra surveys would be needed to meet the targets. To meet target 1 an additional 86 household surveys would have been needed in the last ten years: 58 surveys for the 29 countries with no data in the ten year window (2002-2011) and 28 more surveys for the 28 countries with one data point. To meet target 2 an additional 23 household surveys would have been needed in order to raise the number of countries with three or more data points from 63 to 86. This means that to meet both targets at least 109 additional surveys would have been needed

> 11 The projection for indicator 1 in 2030 is 163, which is higher than a total number of countries in our dataset. Therefore, we say “all countries are projected to have two or more poverty data points in ten years”. 12 It would be imperative to set targets to ensure that data are reasonably current. An examination of the all of the countries with two data points between 2002 and 2011 shows that the latest survey was conducted after 2009, i.e., in the last 5 years or even more recently. For this reason we do not include explicitly include how recent the last survey was in the targets.

14