rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
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savings and thereby contribute to the mobilization of financial resources. The second objectve is to move gradually to market determined interest rates which in turn would encourage a more efficient allocation of credit across and within sectors. The third goal is to encourage competition between commercial banks and near-bank financial institutions by reducing the artificial differentials between their lending rates (World Bank, 1990). Towards this end, restrictions on commercial bank fees and charges were lifted as of April 1, 1990, providing these institutions with greater flexibility in determining the cost of borrowing and lending. The Government plans to adopt a fully liberalized interest rate structure by June 1991.

3.9 In recognition of this policy direction, the model uses the real interest rate to reallocate domestic credit between the private sector and the public sector, given the pool of credit in the economy. This means that net credit to the private sector must fall when net credit to the public sector increases, other things being equal (equation (2)). Accordingly, the private sector's demand for credit is negatively related to real interest rates, reflecting the negative relationship between the real interest rate and private investment.

3.10 Research in several countries suggests that the transition from negative to positive interest rates, rather than the levels themselves, has a more significant impact on the level of domestic savings. Once the rate becomes positive, further increases appear not to affect savings. The reasons may be two-fold. First, target savers-persons wishing to reach a certain level of savings-would not need to increase their savings because of rising interest income from a given level of savings. This income effect may actually lower savings at higher interest rates. Second, and in contrast to the first, higher real interest rates raise the opportuniy cost of consumptionsavings and its interest income. Savers may therefore switch from consumption to savings when real interest rates rise. Because of this indeterminate impact of interest rates and savings in
accompanied by a 5-percentage point increase in the rate of informality, and a 13 percent reduction in hourly earnings.<sup>5</sup> The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 reviews the recent literature on the labor market effects of forced migration. Section 3 describes the events that have led to the Venezuelan crisis and provides some context regarding the economic situation in Ecuador at the time of the arrival of the migrants. Section 4 discusses our main data sources. Section 5 presents the analysis of the location choices of Venezuelan migrants within Ecuador. Section 6 contains the difference-in-difference estimation of the labor market effects of Venezuelan migration along with several robustness checks. Lastly, Section 7 concludes with our final remarks.

# **2 Literature**

Our paper contributes to the recent literature on the effects of forced migration on the host labor markets, which has focused on the exodus of Syrians primarily to Turkey (e.g. Ceritoglu et al. (2017), Tumen (2016), DelCarpio and Wagner (2015) and Loayza et al. (2018)) and Venezuelans to Colombia (Caruso et al. (2019) and Penaloza-Pacheco (2019)), which we review in detail below. Our contribution is twofold. First, we provide the first analysis of the labor-market effects of Venezuelan migration to Ecuador, one of the main receivers of Venezuelans over the last few years. Secondly, we make use of new data based on cell phone contracts and usage that allow us to measure with a high degree of accuracy the density of Venezuelan migrants across Ecuador’s geography, and merge these data with the household labor force survey and administrative records on migrants’ points of entry.<sup>6</sup> Our study contributes to the growing literature on the economic consequences of forced migration for host countries (Becker and Ferrara (2019)). Despite its enormous policy interest, this topic has remained understudied due to the scarcity of high quality data. Another challenge in the estimation of the effects on receiving communities is that the average impact on host communities is mixed because some native workers win while others lose, as noted in the review by Ruiz and Vargas-Silva (2013), In the last few years, the literature has concentrated heavily on the analysis of the

> 5 _Adequate employment_ refers to the full-time employed earning at least the minimum wage, and to workers with part-time jobs that do not wish to work more hours.

> 6Beine et al. (2019) have also used cell phone records in the context of Syrian refugees in Turkey, but their analysis is limited to refugees’ location choices and they do not analyze labor market outcomes.

4
# I. INTRODUCTION

Directed credit programs involving loans on preferential terms and conditions to priority sectors were a major tool of development policy in both developed and developing countries in the 1960s and 1970s. During the 1980s, the realization that most of these programs had resulted in distorted incentives among both lenders and borrowers led to a reconsideration of their rationale and effectiveness. The experience of most countries around the world showed that directed credit programs stimulated capital intensive projects, suffered from abuse and misuse of preferential funds for nonpriority purposes, increased the cost of funds to nonpreferential borrowers, involved a decline in financial discipline that resulted in low repayment rates, and contributed to a swelling of budget deficits. Moreover, once introduced, directed credit programs proved difficult to remove.

This general assessment of the adverse effects of directed credit programs has contrasted with the experience and views of government officials in Japan and other East Asian countries who have long advocated the merits of well managed and focused directed credit programs. According to this view, government involvement in directing credit is warranted when there is a significant discrepancy between private and social benefits, when the investment risk of particular projects is too high, and when information problems discourage lending to small and medium size firms. Use of policy-based lending, in addition to other forms of industrial assistance (e.g. lower taxes, grants, etc), is premised on the argument that the main constraint facing new or expanding enterprises is their limited access to external finance at reasonable terms and conditions. Directed credit programs involving small subsidies overcome this constraint, but to avoid the misuse of funds and abuse of credit programs, a strong emphasis must be placed on the maintenance of macroeconomic stability to minimize distortions in incentives and on effective monitoring to ensure the timely repayment of loans.

This paper provides a brief overview of credit policies in East Asian countries (Japan, Korea and China)' as well as India and attempts to pull together some lessons from the experience of these countries. It draws on the findings of a World Bank research project on the "Effectiveness of Credit Policies in East Asian Countries ",2 I But the paper's main focus is on Japan and Korea.

2 The project consists of four parts: this overview paper; two conceptual papers on the case for credit policies and the role of government in overcoming market imperfections; a series of country papers on policy-based lending, financial sector development and industrialization including very detailed studies of policy-based finance in postwar Japan and Korea; and empirical work using a large sample of firmlevel data on the effectiveness of credit policies in Japan.

I
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reduction in QRs in ensuring that domestic production would supply an increasing share of total demand for capital goods. Table 18 presents the general trends in foreign trade for capital goods.

**TABLE 18:** TRENDS **IN FOREIGN TRADE OF** CAPITAL **GOODS (X)**

||**1973174**|1978179|1980/81|_1984185_|1986/87|1987/88|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|CIF Imports as<br>XGFCF inHachinery|---|---|14.4|13.3|18.6|16.6|
|Duties asXImports|37.4|49.4|49.1|75.2|59.8|65.4|
|Imports asZOutput|35.9|17.1|17.4|20.5|--|24.9|
|Exports as Z Output|5.9|6.2|4.4|3.8|---|2.8|
|Excise as**_Z_**Output|1.5|3.2|---|---|---|7.4|
|Distribution of Imports by|Regime:||||||
|- OGL||||||27.0|
|- Limited Permissible||||||21.0|
|- Restricted||||||52.0|

70. Table 19 shows the trends in foreign trade for disaggregated components of capital goods. The table shows that the structure of trade in 1978/79 indicated the beginning of specialization along the lines of comparative advantage and technological achievement. For example, import and export shares were respectively 43% and 13% for machine tools and 82% and 15% for general electrical machinery. In these two groups, India was importing what it could not produce adequately, and was exporting products where it had a comparative advantage. In most countries with developed capital goods industries, shares of both imports and exports are very large. India in 1978/79 was closer to these countries. However, this tentative and partial specialization disappeared during the 1980s as the result of policies for increased self-sufficiency which lowered not only imports but also exports.
To estimate the hierarchical headcount ratio, we need to choose a societal poverty line. In our theoretical framework, two exogenous elements determine the societal poverty line: the reference bundle ( _za,_ _<u>y</u>_<sup>_~~z~~_</sup> ) and the set of admissible (ordinal) utility functions _U_ representing preferences over own and relative income. The specification of the reference bundle is clearly a normative choice, while the identification of _U_ is more subtle. It could be taken as the set of all preferences actually held by some individual, which is, in principle, empirically observable. Under this approach, identification of _U_ is a positive exercise. It could, alternatively, be taken as another normative choice to be made by the social planner. The social planner might make some normative evaluation of ‘reasonableness’ of preferences and only include in _U_ preferences that she considers to be ‘reasonable’. The choice of approach is of course, itself, a normative choice.

For the purposes of our empirical analysis, we infer both the reference bundle ( _za,_ _<u>y</u>_<sup>_~~z~~_</sup> ) and the set of admissible utility functions _U_ from the societal poverty line currently used by the World Bank to assess income poverty, combining its absolute and relative aspects. In doing so, we elucidate the normative choices implicit in the World Bank approach from the perspective of our theoretical framework. This has the additional advantage that the societal headcount ratio ( _HS_ ) corresponds exactly to the World Bank’s official societal poverty measure, while the absolute headcount ratio ( _HA_ ) corresponds to its official extreme poverty measure, thus facilitating comparison of existing global poverty assessments with those of our proposed measure.

The World Bank’s societal poverty line, _max_ ($1 _._ 90 _,_ $1 _._ 00 + 0 _._ <u>5</u> _<u>y</u>_ <u>)</u> where _<u>y</u>_ is country median income, is the upper contour of an absolute poverty line and a weakly relative line (World Bank, 2018). The absolute line of $1 _._ 90 per person per day, in 2011 PPP, has been the official World Bank extreme poverty line since 2015 (Ferreira et al., 2016). The weakly relative line $1 _._ 00 + 0 _._ <u>5</u> _<u>y</u>_ was estimated from regressions of 699 (national) poverty lines against median income (Jolliffe and Prydz, 2021).

The components of the reference bundle are thus straightforwardly inferred from the intersection of the absolute and weakly relative lines as subsistence income _za_ = $1 _._ 90 and reference median income _<u>y</u>_<sup>_~~z~~_</sup> = $1 _._ 80, the latter being the maximal median income at which the subsistence income is considered sufficient for social inclusion. We observe with interest that the reference median income is close to, but slightly less than, the subsistence income. It follows that an individual whose Venezuela (missing data in 2015). Our results are robust to excluding this set of countries.

34
**Table 4: Simulations of trade changes for a median Central Asian country**

|||Percentile ac<br>(ex<br>25<sup>th</sup>|ross landlocke<br>cl. Central Asi<br>Median|d countries<br>a)<br>75th|Coastal<br>countries<br>Median|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||**Exports**|||||
|**K**||-1.8%|2.4%|6.5%|14.5%|
|**K**<sup>**TRANSIT**</sup>||-12.7%|44. 8%|51.8%|89.7%|
|**D**<sup>**PORT**</sup>||10.8%|8.2%|6.0%|64.6%|
|**B**<sup>**TRANSIT**</sup>||27.1%|17.4%|8.3%|49.2%|
||**Imports**|||||
|**K**||-2.4%|3.1%|8.6%|19.6%|
|**K**<sup>**TRANSIT**</sup>||-4.9%|14.6%|16.6%|26.5%|
|**D**<sup>**PORT**</sup>||5.6%|4.3%|3.2%|30.4%|
|**B**<sup>**TRANSIT**</sup>||5.7%|3.1%|1.3%|10.1%|

_Source: Authors’ calculations._ Note: The construction of the trade changes reported in the above table is as follows. We first calculate the predicted trade for a median Central Asian country (on average over 1992-2004), denoted MCA. We then compute the predicted trade, denoted Mpred allowing K, K<sup>TRANSIT</sup> , Dj<sup>PORT</sup> , and B<sup>TRANSIT</sup> to vary _successively_ , while keeping all other variables at the level of the representative Central Asian country (median value). The change reported in the table is 100(Mpred/MCA –1). The values of K, K<sup>TRANSIT</sup> , Dj<sup>PORT</sup> , and B<sup>TRANSIT</sup> chosen for the simulations are the quartile values across the landlocked countries (excluding Central Asia) and the median value across coastal countries. All the explanatory variable values used in these calculations are reported in Table 3. The gravity specifications are found in column 2 of Table 3 and columns 6, 8 and 10 of Tables 1 and 2.

To summarize, an improvement in the internal infrastructure of each Central Asian country from the level of the median Central Asia country to that of the best 25<sup>th</sup> percentile of other landlocked countries increases exports and imports by 6.5% and 8.6% respectively.<sup>32</sup> An improvement in K to the level of the median coastal country generates an increase in exports and imports of 14.5% and 19.6% respectively. The impact of the infrastructure of an individual country is not particularly significant<sup>33</sup> but it would appear that the infrastructure of transit countries is of greater importance for the international trade of landlocked countries. This hypothesis is confirmed by the results presented in this Section. An improvement in transit country infrastructure to the level of the best 25<sup>th</sup> percentile of other landlocked countries, by cutting transit transport costs, increases the representative

> 32 Maintening all other variables at the level of the representative Central Asian country (median value).

> 33 Not specific to landlocked countries, as the associated coefficient is the same for all countries in the sample.

29
that 47% of diagnosed asthma suffers in India come from the lowest two income quintiles,<sup>9</sup> so that the number of disadvantaged beneficiaries is 551,481 x 47% = 259,196 people. This is likely an underestimate because the court decision benefitted all asthma sufferers, not just diagnosed asthma sufferers, and rates of diagnosis are likely to be lower for the lower income groups.

The impact of the right to food litigation is the sum of impacts on school attendance and on nutritional well-being. The program increased first grade school enrollment, for girls alone, by 10% per year. As a result, the program resulted in 412,500 new girls in school each year from 2001-2006, or 2,475,000 girls in total. All of these were likely disadvantaged, as it is the lowest income girls who are prevented from attending school due to a lack of food in household. We estimate that over 7 million students benefited from the program‘s nutritional effects. Similar calculations for other cases are in Table 6. The table shows that the share of disadvantaged beneficiaries in India is about 83%, consistent with the expectations when the legal system permits abstract policy review and cases focus on regulation.

> 9 <u>http://www.who.int/healthinfo/survey/whs_hspa_book.pdf</u>

33
# Table of Contents

|1. IntroducUon ..........................<br>I|
|---|
|11. SMEs and Sectors Under Study ............<br>..............<br>2|
|Methodology ..........................<br>2|
|Summary of the SME Sample ................<br>..........<br>3|
|<br>Summary of Industry Sectors ............<br>..............<br>7|
|<br>111.<br>Technical Support Systems<br>..........................<br>12|
|Overview............................<br>12|
|Survey of Industry Sectors ...........<br>...............<br>15|
|Conclusions ..........................<br>20|
|IV. Marketing Support Systems ............<br>..............<br>21|
|Overview..........................................<br>22|
|Survey of Industry Sectors .......................<br>24|
|Conclusions .......................<br>28|
|V- Financial Support Systems .......................<br>29|
|Overview.............. .............................<br>30|
|Characteristics of Financial Support in Korea ....................<br>30|
|Use of Financial Support Services .............................<br>35|
|<br>Conclusions .................<br>38|
|V]. The Govemance of Korea's Support System .........<br>.............<br>39<br>|
|Vil. Policy Recommendations ............<br>.........................<br>42|

# Tables

|Table 1: Small, Medium, and Large Enterprises in Korea (1963-1988) ...|...<br>45|
|---|---|
|Table 2: Variability Among Chosen Sectors .......................|46-51|
|Table 3: Sources of Collective Technical Support in Korea .....<br>......|. 52-57|
|Table 4: Lag Times of Exporters by Sector ........................|58-67|
|Table 5: Distribution of Govemment-Led<br>Funds for SMEs (1980-1990) .|. 68-76|
|Table 6: Governance Investigation: Oversight Agencies .....<br>.........|77-78|
unchallengeable in all respects than with simply having a document they could use against the seller or a third party with no such bit of paper. Consequently, they frequently opt for the least costly means of obtaining security of tenure. According to the notary*, most of the deeds concerning land transactions that he formalized, with the exception of those relating to property titles, were certifications of signature. Using this system, the buyer can escape the formalities of registration and related costs but, in so doing, denies himself the opportunity to give formal notice of the deed, which would give it legal effect vis-à-vis third parties’.

* _interviewed by the authors; Source: Djiré and Traoré (2008)_

# **Annex 6.3.** **_Lotissements_ and resettlement operations on land subject to property title**

In the area of Missabougou verger, _commune_ VI, the _commune_ team granted many precarious titles (CUH) in respect of building plots located on the property of a development company which had a TF. In June 2012, the Governor of Bamako District ordered the mayor to stop the ongoing work on the site and annul the titles that had been granted (L’Indicateur du Renouveau October 18, 2012).

In Sebenikoro, _commune_ VI, the resettlement of families on more than 260 lots, which had been carried out in 1996 by the town council and the governorate of Bamako District in connection with the SNQ program and the upgrading operation for the Sebenikoro settlement, was challenged in February 2011 by a company which said it was the owner of those lots (L’Indépendant June 27, 2012).

_Source: L’Indicateur du Renouveau (2012) and L’Indépendant ( 2012)_

# **Annex 6.4. Disputes concerning one or several property titles**

In Gouana village, Kalabancoro _commune_ , Kati _cercle_ , in March 2012, the member of parliament for _commune_ II claimed to hold TF dating from 2006 to 670 ha. He brought proceedings before the Court of First Instance of Koulikoro region seeking the eviction of around 970 families (L’Indicateur du Renouveau March, 12 2012).

In Sénou-Plateau, _commune_ VI, an individual attempted at the end of February 2012 to expropriate more than 2000 families who had been settled for many years on land (with a total area of 60 ha) affected by the Sénou infrastructure scheme drawn up by the council of _commune_ VI. Claiming to hold property title, he had the 60 ha surveyed and plotted. The community mobilized against the plan, the police intervened and fired warning shots to disperse the demonstrators. Clashes lasted three days, resulting in injuries and arrests (Indicateur du Renouveau February 29, 2012). Following these incidents, the authorities<sup>80</sup> decided to chase that individual away and said they were prepared to conduct an inquiry to establish who was responsible (L’Indicateur du Renouveau March 1, 2012).

_Source: L’Indicateur du Renouveau (2012)_

> 80 Ministries of Territorial Administration and Local Authorities, Housing, Land Affairs and Urban Planning and the municipal and traditional authorities of Sénou.

58
assigned into treatment and control groups. A sample of 506 localities was finally selected for the study. A random procedure assigned 320 of these localities to receive immediate treatment; the remaining 186 began receiving treatment approximately 18 months later. In the selected localities, the poverty conditions of all households were evaluated, and households categorized as experiencing extreme poverty were included in the program. This categorization was based on household income, characteristics of the head of household, and variables related to dwelling conditions. Comments by a community assembly on the inclusion and exclusion of households were considered if they met certain criteria to identify beneficiary families. The randomized design enabled us to use the immediate treatment sample as the treatment group and the delayed treatment sample as the control group.<sup>8</sup> However, when we consider the effect of the program on the health outcomes of children between the ages of two and six years in 2003, most of these children grew up in families that were in the program for their entire lives. For children born before the delayed treatment began, this comparison can only show the effect of the difference in exposure when the children were young.<sup>9</sup> Therefore, and because we want to limit our study to an analysis of households that actually received cash transfers (this information is not available for the initial treatment sample), our treatment sample is a subset of the delayed treatment sample.<sup>10</sup> Once the delayed treatment sample began receiving treatment, we had to construct a new control sample, with the intention of making it as similar as possible to the treatment samples (see, e.g., Todd 2004 and Behrman et al. 2006). First, localities that did not meet the criteria for access to an elementary school, a middle school, and a health clinic were excluded. Next, a propensity score method was used that was based on data at the local level as a function of observed characteristics from the 2000 Census that permitted comparison with the localities of the original sample. This procedure led to a selection of 151 localities in which households that 12