digitalization? This section aims at answering these questions.<sup>53</sup> Table 14 shows the results of the estimation of the IV fractional Probit when we introduce the variable Digitalization, labeled , as a control and Table 15 those of the tests of validity and strength of the instruments used after having included this variable in the analysis. As can be seen from the latter table, the DDiiDDiiffvvrr null hypothesis of validity of the instruments cannot be rejected and the null hypothesis that these instruments are weak is rejected. The results presented in Table 14 allow us to draw three main lessons which we discuss in turn.

First, the effect of Digitalization on Participation in MENA is time-lagged, i.e., it takes time before the effect of Digitalization on Participation is observed. This may be due to the time necessary for the diffusion of digital innovations and their adoption by citizens. These delays are more likely to be greater in developing countries, in particular in MENA, due to various factors, including culture, education, and technological diffusion in the region.<sup>54</sup> The results show that the effect of an improvement of the current level of Digitalization on Participation is observed three years later.<sup>55</sup> Second, the results show that in MENA the relationship between Digitalization and Participation is inversely -shaped. Digitalization has a positive incremental effect on Participation up to the threshold level of 0.57, i.e., 57% of the maximum level of Digitalization UU across the MENA countries and the 2007-2020 period. Beyond this threshold a negative effect prevails. We found that, over this period, more than half of the countries in the MENA sample have recorded a three-year lagged level of Digitalization that is less than the threshold.<sup>56</sup> This

> 53 Data on digitalization was collected from the UN E-Government Knowledgebase (available at https://publicadministration.un.org/egovkb/en-us/Data-Center). The variable is the sum of two variables, namely, the Online Service Index (OSI) and the Telecommunication Infrastructure Index (TII). The first variable measures the scope and quality of online services, while the second measures telecommunication connectivity. This information is published at country level every two years since 2008 (also for the years 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2005). Note that the database reports the variables E-Government Development Index (EGDI) and Human Capital Index (HCI), the latter measuring human capacity. OSI, TII, and HCI are composite indices that are normalized to lie in the unit interval, and then EGDI is calculated by taking their arithmetic average. The formula is as follows: E 3 (O n n + H n ) nnmmn iin nn nnmmn iin nn nnmmn iin nn DDEE=<sup>1</sup> EE + TTE EE

> 54 For instance, 4G coverage exceeds 93% of the territory in Morocco whereas the majority of rural consumers are equipped only with 2G and 3G handsets.

> 55 The null hypotheses of existence of any instantaneous, first lag, and second lag effects of Digitalization were rejected.

> 56 These countries are Algeria, Djibouti, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and Yemen.

31