the actual treatment takes place. The size and significance of those estimates will indicate how the series trended before the treatment period (Table 6).

**Table 5. Pandemic and layoff restriction effects on labor market: Difference-in-** **<u>differences results.</u>**

||DiD<br>coefficient|Treatment group<br>coefficient|Treatment period<br>coefficient<sup>1</sup>|
|---|---|---|---|
|Dependent variable:|[1]|[2]|[3]|
|Cumulative employment|-.0602*** (.0092)|.0964*** (.0034)|.0127 (.0128)|
|Total new hires|-1.196*** (.1718)|.1138* (.0624)|.5483** (.2312)|
|Full-time hires|-1.097*** (.1594)|.1171 (.0724)|.6174*** (.2218)|
|Part-time hires<br>|-1.264*** (.2009)|.1326** (.0651)|.4919* (.2524)|
|Shift work hires<br>|-1.558*** (.2978)|.0432 (.1037)|.5835 (.3558)|
|Total separations|-1.330*** (.1650)|.1539 (.1113)|.1702 (.1590)|
|Firings|-1.407*** (.2076)|.1711 (.1101)|.1748 (.2052)|
|Quits|-1.236*** (.1576)|.1507* (.0812)|.1066 (.1462)|
|Contract terminations|-1.423***(.2167)|.1481(.1702)|.2550 (.2176)|

Source: ERGANI. Authors’ calculations.

Notes: Negative binomial regression estimates. Robust standard errors in parentheses. All models include a constant and a weekly linear trend. Sample size covers weeks 1-21 (lockdown lifting) and the effective observations are 42 in all models (21 weeks; 2 groups).<sup>1</sup> Treatment period for cumulative employment and hires is week 9 onwards (pandemic onset). Treatment period for separations runs from week 12 onwards (layoff restrictions). *** at 1%, ** at 5% and * at 1%.

**<u>Table 6. Testing for parallel trends before the treatment period.</u>**

||-5 weeks<br>lead|-4 weeks<br>lead|-3 weeks<br>lead|-2<br>weeks<br>lead|-1 weeks<br>lead|0 weeks<br>lead|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Dependent variable:<br>|[1]|[2]|[3]|[4]|[5]|[6]|
|Cumulative employment|-.008*<br>|-.002<br>|-.005***<br>|-.002<br>|-.001<br>|-.051***<br>|
||(.004)|(.001)|(.001)|(.001)|(.001)|(.008)|
|Total new hires|-.050<br>|.372***<br>|-.222***<br>|.076***<br>|-.001<br>|-1.28***<br>|
|Full-time hires|(.076)<br>-.120**<br>(.052)|(.021)<br>.486***<br>(.018)|(.021)<br>-.345***<br>(.018)|(.021)<br>.065***<br>(.018)|(.021)<br>-.086***<br>(.018)|(.157)<br>-1.05***<br>(.149)|
|Part-time hires|-.039|.289***|-.128***|.075***|.060**|-1.421***|
||(.106)|(.023)|(.023)|(.023)|(.024)|(.192)|
|Shift work hires|.199*<br>|.232***<br>|-.048<br>|.131***<br>|.082**<br>|-1.878***<br>|
||(.110)|(.034)|(.033)|(.034)|(.033)|(.288)|
|Total separations|-.148<br>|.020<br>|.197***<br>|.025<br>|.015<br>|-1.437***<br>|
||(.126)|(.017)|(.017)|(.017)|(.017)|(.149)|
|Firings|-.141|-.010|.324***|.162***|.411***|-2.050***|
||(.108)|(.020)|(.020)|(.020)|(.020)|(.179)|
|Quits|-.244***<br>(.090)|-.032**<br>(.015)|.215***<br>(.015)|.190***<br>(.015)|.094***<br>(.015)|-1.472***<br>(.154)|
|Contract terminations|-.050|.075***|.143***|-.209***|-.422***|-.983***|
||(.196)|(.023)|(.023)|(.023)|(.023)|(.174)|

Source: ERGANI. Authors’ calculations.

Notes: Negative binomial regression estimates. Robust standard errors in parentheses. All models include a constant and a weekly linear trend. Sample size covers weeks 1-21 (lockdown lifting) and the effective observations are 42 in all models (21 weeks; 2 groups).<sup>1</sup> Treatment period for cumulative employment and hires is week 9 onwards (pandemic onset). Treatment period for separations runs from week 12 onwards (layoff restrictions). *** at 1%, ** at 5% and * at 1%.

For cumulative employment, the results confirm the parallel trend hypothesis for treated and control groups before the pandemic. The estimated coefficients are not significant and remarkably low; the effect comes when specifying a zero weeks lead 27