# **6. Conclusions and Policy Implications**

The 2015 Tanzania Water Point Mapping data enables us to identify the failure rates of water points and schemes across their lifetimes as well as the factors contributing to these failures.<sup>22</sup> 29 percent of all water points are non-functional, and many failed within the first year. The results indicate that nearly 20 percent of water points are likely to fail in the first year of construction, while nearly 40 percent are likely to fail in the long run (within 20 years).

The empirical results from the logistic regressions confirm the evidence provided in the Tanzania context as well as those found in the literature. Water points managed by village committees had a much higher likelihood of failure than those managed by private operators or water authority. This result is similar to the ones found by Cronk and Bartram (2017) . Empowerment of village committees to manage and maintain the water points under their supervision needs to be emphasized as recommended by WaterAid (2009). Alternatively, a movement for more water points to be managed by private operators is also viable although there is a risk of profiteering which would be undesirable especially when the aim is to increase water access among rural populations (WaterAid, 2009). Additionally, following similar results from Foster (2013), it was found that water points technology also affects their functionality. Motorized pumps are more likely to fail than gravity flow pumps. In fact, as shown in the Shapley decomposition, the technology of water points accounts for about 58 percent of the total water point failures. Hence, there is a need to use appropriate technologies that is compatible with the hydrological conditions while also emphasizing the management and maintenance capability of community led user associations. Evidence also supports the recommendations of Holms et al., (2017) that villages should be given more autonomy regarding decision to install and maintain water pumps.

The variables described above such as the manner of how water points are being managed as well as their technology, can be considered “modifiable” as suggested by Fisher (2015). Proper interventions are needed to address the shortcomings contributing to water point failures. On the other hand, this study also highlights the impact of factors contributing to water point failures that are not “modifiable”. These are basically the geographic and hydrological factors such as the different geographical zones and groundwater characteristics. These findings are useful to future decision-making processes in designing, constructing or managing the water points at locations with varying hydrogeological characteristics. In fact, the Shapely decomposition shows that the hydrological factors are more important than those of locality and geographic zone types. While interventions cannot be designed to wholly change these

> 22 Note that this model does not intend to make causal inferences. Absent a control group, as in the case of experimental or quasi-experimental research designs, it is not possible to make any strict causal inferences about the role that each of these factors play in explaining the probability of water point failure. Further experimental research is needed to analyze the causal factors driving water point failure.

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