# 1. **INTRODUCTION**

The analysis of the evolution of poverty and welfare over time in Nigeria has been difficult, because there are empirical or data considerations which make the task daunting. The social and economic data base to analyze this issue is either non-existent or missing in many Sub-Saharan countries, including Nigeria. However under the National Survey of Integrated Households (NISH) two National Consumer Surveys (NCS) were conducted, one in 1985 and the other 1992, which provide the minimum requirement towards undertaking such an analysis. It does not, however, enable us to address the detailed issues of household and individual welfare.

This paper looks at the household welfare determined by the capabilities and constraints of its members for income generation and access to publicly financed services. In the rural areas, since most households are engaged in agriculture, access to land, credit and other productive inputs, and their human capital, determine their capacity for income generation. For the nonagricultural population, particularly for urban dwellers, labor market operation and their human capital are decisive in determining their status. Human capital is generally dependent on the availability and access to a critical mass of health, education and nutritional services. Since each one of them complements the effect of the other, a critical minimum of each is required. In Nigeria, though there is a large private sector, the provision of social services, particularly education and health have been primarily in the domain of the public sector. The level and quality of provision of social services, especially for the poor, has eroded over time.

In terms of health indicators, noticeable improvements have been made since the 1970s, but a lot still needs to be done. Nigeria's health indicators such as morbidity and mortality rates, are high. The crude death rate (CDR) had declined by half from 27 per 1000 in 1965 to 15 per 1000 in 1993. The infant mortality rate (IMR) in 1993 was estimated at 83 per 1000 live births, down from 140 per 1000 in 1970. Towards the end of the 1980s, the maternal mortality rates were estimated to have reached 8 per 1000 live births. Life expectancy at birth had risen from 39 years in 1960, to 51 in 1993 (World Bank, 1995).

These indicators, however, show that Nigeria fared badly compared to many countries at the same level of GDP per capita, and not much better than other countries of Sub-Saharan Africa.

About 80 percent of the deaths are still caused by preventable diseases such as measles, malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea, gonorrhea, whooping cough, schistosomiasis, chicken pox and tuberculosis. In addition, fewer than 30 percent of pregnant women received modern pre- and post-natal care. These causes of morbidity and mortality are reinforced by the prevalence of unhygienic traditional delivery practices and the lack of adequate family planning practices.

In the education sector, gross primary enrollment rate increased from 42 percent in 1960 (World Bank, 1989a and 1995) to 92 percent at its peak in 1982/83, after which it subsided to 78 percent in 1992. Secondary and tertiary gross enrollment also increased until the early 1980s after which a downward trend ensued in the second half. The adult literacy rate, the best indicator of the extent to which education has spread, increased steadily from 15 percent in 1960, to a