Table 3: Recovery Growth After Conflict: Country Level

||(1)|(2)|(3)|
|---|---|---|---|
||GDP p.c. growth (PWT)|GDP p.c. growth (World Bank)|Light p.c. growth|
|confict incidence|-1.645***|-2.653***|-7.648***|
||(0.478)|(0.601)|(2.787)|
|frst year after violence|2.993**|2.468**|3.175|
||(1.364)|(1.156)|(4.497)|
|second year after violence|-0.949|-0.115|-1.013|
||(0.946)|(0.741)|(2.279)|
|third year after violence|0.400|-0.213|-3.014|
||(0.735)|(0.660)|(2.210)|
|fourth year after violence|0.519|-0.344|-0.855|
||(0.555)|(0.576)|(2.622)|
|ffth year after violence|0.273|0.116|-3.911|
||(0.638)|(0.488)|(2.751)|
|country fxed efects|YES|YES|YES|
|year fxed efects|YES|YES|YES|
|Observations|8,004|8,076|3,924|
|R-squared|0.053|0.067|0.235|
|Number of country|186|192|187|

Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p _<_ 0.01, ** p _<_ 0.05, * p _<_ 0.1. The dependent variable in columns (1) and (2) is the GDP per capita growth computed using Penn World Table data and World Bank data respectively. Column (3) uses growth of night light per capita form the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). “Conflict incidence” is a dummy that takes a value of 1 if the number of battle related deaths is above a threshold of 0.008 per 1000 population. Dummies 1<sup>_st_</sup> year after conflict, 2<sup>_nd_</sup> year after conflict, etc. take a value of 1 in the _x_<sup>_th_</sup> year after the war ends.

literature on within-country comparisons fairly well. Results are in columns (1) and (2) of Table 4. We find that groups in conflict receive about 30 percent less light per capita than other groups in the same country and year.<sup>13</sup> Interpreted with the loglinear-relationship between light and GDP this is equivalent to a difference of about 8 percent in GDP per capita. During the time after conflict this difference to other groups narrows. To show this we introduce two sets of dummies. First we introduce a dummy for the first five years after conflict and a second dummy for the remaining years. We see that light per capita is 20 percent less in groups that come out of conflict and remains significantly lower after five years. Second, we look at the first ten years and find, again, that groups coming out of conflict receive 20 percent less light per capita. However, now in the remaining recovery years the difference is only 5 percent and is not statistically significant. Overall this suggests some catch up a decade after<sup>14</sup> In summary, there are a series of papers which show a complete recovery following wars of the most affected regions within 15 to 25 years. We find evidence that this result generalizes to a large cross-section of countries. Recovery at the country level appears to be much weaker. We find little evidence for extraordinary growth periods after civil war. This is, however, not the final word regarding recovery. There is a

> 13We find very similar coefficients when including group and year fixed effects instead of country/year effects. Groups are not just receiving less light compared to other groups in the same country but also compared to themselves in other years.

> 14To check this from a group perspective we also ran growth regressions with dummies indicating recovery years and find that light per capita grows significantly after conflict. See Appendix Table A5.

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