rafmacalaba/datause-encoder-data huggingface dataset:
As shown in Table 6, the real rate of return of the Peruvian AFPs has been 7.1 percent since the start of the system in 1993. Until January 1997, AFPs were only required to report and publish their returns without taking account of their commissions. Now, however, returns net of commissions will have to be reported. According to World Bank calculations, the returns net of commissions for a worker who joined the new pension system in July 1993 were - 0.32% in 1994. - 0.92%, and 4.46% in 1996 (Shah 1997).

Although it is important to inform affiliates about the actual costs of the system, it is questionable whether reporting on net of commissions basis will greatly increase transparency. Since commissions are charged as percentage of the workers' salaries, the rate of return on the affiliates' balance depends on the time that the affiliate has been contributing. In Colombia, for example, the net rates of return are given for members who joined at the beginning of the system only. Unless the rates are given for members who joined at different times, the information will be of limited value to the workers. Any information on net returns given to workers should also include projections of expected future performance over their full careers. Otherwise, the front loading of commission charges might discourage workers from joining the AFP system.

**Table 6 Real Rates of Return (in %)**

|**AFP**|**12/93-**<br>**12/94**|**12/94-**<br>**12/95**|**12/95 -**<br>**12/96**|**Annual average**<br>**7/93 - 12/96**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Profuturo**|10.6|5.9|7.4|7.6|
|**Horizonte**|8.6|6.0|_5.0_|6.9|
|**Integra**|7.9|5.3|6.3|6.8|
|**Nueva Vida**|10.2|5.4|_5.5_|7.9|
|**Union**|7.9|5.8|4.6|7.2|
|**El Roble**|7.5|3.5|-||
|**Average**|8.6|_5.5_|5.8|7.1|

Source: SAFP

# **_Old_** _Age_ **_Benefits_**

The retirement age in the Peruvian pension system is 65 years for men and women. At retirement, the accumulated balance and, if the pensioner had contributed to the old public pension system, the recognition bond are converted to monthly pension payments. Early retirement is possible only if the balance accumulated in the individual account is sufficient to finance a pension equivalent to 50 percent of the average salary during the last 10 years. The law contemplates 4 different types of old age benefits: programmed withdrawal, personal annuity, family annuity, and a combination of programmed withdrawal and annuity. A pensioner choosing the programmed withdrawal option will receive monthly payments based on the individual life expectancy. If the beneficiary dies before the balance is drawn down, the survivors will inherit the remaining balance.

19
weekly hours of labor supply, and their main activity in their main job. We also consider time-use statistics focusing on two household chores that are often carried out by children: the collection of firewood and water.<sup>8</sup> These time-use questions are identical across the four survey designs and are asked to all children regardless of their employment status, with the only survey design variation arising from the respondent type (self-report or proxy). Throughout we focus on a comparison between the results generated by the short and detailed modules and a comparison between those generated by the proxy and self-reported modules.

In the second part, we estimate the average effects of survey type for each of these statistics using standard analysis (probit, OLS, and multinomial logit) where LFP, weekly hours, and main activity are in turn left-hand-side variables, and the survey assignment as well as household and individual characteristics and district effects are right-hand-side variables, as set out in Equation 1.

In the third part, we estimate Equation 2 to investigate whether the effects on child labor of the personal and household characteristics commonly analyzed in the child labor literature are sensitive to changes in the survey type.

# _Differences in labor indicators across survey type_

Table 3 presents differences in LFP, working hours, and time spent on firewood and water collection by questionnaire and respondent type, disaggregated by gender. In each case, we test for a difference in means across survey type groups using a t-test. Row 1 of Table 3, for instance, first reports the mean LFP of boys obtained from the short module (55.4 percent) and compares this with the mean LFP for boys obtained from the detailed module (70.9 percent) and tests whether the difference (-15.4 percentage points) is statistically different from zero. Following the conventional definition, domestic activities (cleaning house and cooking) are not considered economic activities and are not included in LFP. Note that when comparing means

> 8 Collecting firewood and water are activities that are included in the System of National Accounts definition of economic activities and should in principle be defined as “work,” although in practice they are routinely excluded.

13
Results from probit regressions for 371 panel communities offer interesting insights, in addition to confirming the significant increase of civil strife in the West."<sup>9</sup> Table 3 illustrates the results for three specifications, in addition to providing means for the independent variables and we directly focus on the full model (column 3) in interpreting results. First, we note a tendency towards persistence or even escalation; in fact the higher the share of the population who were affected by civil strife in 1992, the more likely is it for this phenomenon to have spread further in the intervening period. To get an idea of the magnitude of the associated effect, note that a 20 percentage point increase of the population affected by civil strife, which corresponds to the move from the 7 5 il to the 95th percentile of the distribution, would be equivalent to an increase in the probability of observing increased levels of civil strife by 13.6%. Second, the regression confirms that exogenous changes in infrastructure access do indeed have a powerful impact on breaking the tendency towards higher levels of civil strife; according to the estimates building of a road within 50 km from the community would reduce the probability of observing increased levels of civil strife by about 18%. Third, the high significance of the coefficient on the increase in the number of coffee growers suggests that this variable, either through an increase in taxable income, or through a spread in the wealth distribution, indeed increases the propensity towards civil conflict. At the same time, the magnitude of the predicted effect is srnall; even increasing the share of coffee growers by 50% would increase the risk of increased violence by less than one percentage point. Finally, we note that perceptions are of major importance; the community not being able to pinpoint specific interventions or problems that impede development is estimated to increase the propensity towards escalation of conflict by almost 22%.

Taken together these results suggest a lower importance of "greed", and a much increased relevance of issues related to poverty and availability of public goods than would be suggested by existing crosscountry regressions. From a methodological perspective, this suggests that extrapolation from results obtained at the country level to sub-national aggregates may not be warranted without checking of the

> **'9** Note that the coefficients given are the marginal effects at the mean of all other variables, allowing to make inferences in terns of the probability of civil strife in a given community.

23
# **Table 5.  Summary Statistics of Financial Ratios by Firm Size**

||Small|Medium|Large|t-test|
|---|---|---|---|---|
||1,017|1,019|1,048||
|Growth and Performance|||||
|Nominal Sales Growth|-4.18|2.55|5.91|(***)|
|Real Sales Growth|-7.75|-1.35|1.59|(***)|
|Operating Income /TA|0.022|0.058|0.082|(***)|
|Net Income / TA|0.027|0.040|0.071|(***)|
|Retained Earnings / TA|0.032|0.043|0.028|( )|
|Tobin’s Q|0.955|0.982|1.078|(***)|
|Mean:|1.355|1.811|3.687|(***)|
|Leverage|||||
|Debt to Equity|0.271|0.543|0.699|(***)|
|Total Liabilities / TA|0.396|0.541|0.614|(***)|
|Current Liabilities / Total Li|ab.1.000|0.999|0.923|(***)|
|Mean:|0.872|0.837|0.828|(***)|
|Interest Coverage|2.048|2.130|3.537|(***)|
|Paid-in- Capital|0.424|0.233|0.152|(***)|
|Cash / TA|0.045|0.047|0.064|(***)|

Notes: Source CMA (own calculations). Firms are split in three groups based on their nominal sales with equal number of firms in each group. TA stands for total Assets. Unless specified otherwise, the numbers reported are medians for the respective group. The definitions of the variable are given in the notes to Table 1. The t-test indicates significance for equality of the medians (or means) between years 1996 and 2000. ***,**,*, and<sup>a</sup> indicate significance at 1 percent,5 percent, 10 percent, and 15 percent, respectively.

20
# **Table 1: The effects of temperature on subnational poverty**

|Poverty:|$1.90|/day|$3.20|/day|$5.50|/day|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Panel FE –<br>all countries<br>(1)|Long<br>differences<br>(2)|Panel FE –<br>all countries<br>(3)|Long<br>differences<br>(4)|Panel FE –<br>all countries<br>(5)|Long<br>differences<br>(6)|
|**_Panel A: Country-lev_**|**_el analysis_**||||||
|Temperature|0.366***|0.137***|0.714***|0.250***|1.024***|0.333***|
||(0.058)|(0.018)|(0.098)|(0.027)|(0.139)|(0.037)|
|Precipitation|-0.007|-0.007|0.000|-0.013|0.018|-0.015|
||(0.015)|(0.023)|(0.024)|(0.035)|(0.036)|(0.042)|
|Country FE|Yes|No|No|No|Yes|No|
|Year FE|Yes|No|No|No|Yes|No|
|Mean dependent var.|7.321|7.321|15.448|15.448|26.895|26.895|
|Observations|460|95|460|95|460|95|
|Equality test (Panel<br>vs. long differences)|p = 0|.000|p = 0|.000|p = 0|.000|
|**_Panel B: Subnation-l_**|**_evel analysis_**||||||
|Temperature|0.920***|0.535***|1.834***|1.240***|2.298***|2.008***|
||(0.160)|(0.039)|(0.214)|(0.070)|(0.308)|(0.108)|
|Precipitation|0.236***|-0.365***|0.373**|-0.486***|-0.072|-0.177|
||(0.069)|(0.092)|(0.166)|(0.142)|(0.160)|(0.248)|
|Subnational FE|Yes|No|Yes|No|Yes|No|
|Year FE|Yes|No|Yes|No|Yes|No|
|Mean dependent var.|10.061|10.061|20.327|20.327|34.009|34.009|
|Observations|4,972|1,109|4,972|1,109|4,972|1,109|
|Equality test (Panel<br>vs. long differences)|p = 0|.000|p = 0|.000|p = 0|.016|
|<br>Equality test|||||||
|(country vs.|p = 0.000|p = 0.000|p = 0.000|p = 0.000|p = 0.000|p = 0.000|
|subnational)|||||||
|Number of countries|134|95|134|95|134|95|
|Number of regions|1,594|1,109|1,594|1,109|1,594|1,109|

_Notes:_ Robust standard errors in parentheses. Standard errors are clustered at the country level in Panel A and subnational level in Panel B. Regressions are weighted by region population. Poverty data are taken from the GSAP. Poverty and weather variables in the long-differences model are measured by the difference between averages of the earliest 3-year period and averages of the latest 3-year period. The long differences estimation is based on cross-sectional data with a smaller sample size compared with panel data. The data for the country-level analysis and the subnational-level analysis comes from our newly constructed database. The equality test p-values show the t-test between the panel FE results vs. the long differences results, and the country analysis results vs. the subnational analysis results. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

31
# **1  Introduction**

With the increasing pace at which domestic markets are becoming integrated into the global economy, the debate on income disparities around the world has intensified. An interesting side-effect of globalization has been to change the benchmark against which people measure their own well-being. Increased international trade flows, greater exposure to international travel, and improved and cheaper communication have all made it easier to assess one’s well-being within an international context. These phenomena are giving more relevance to the concept of global income distribution (Milanovic 2006). The common understanding is that the recent globalization process has exacerbated inequalities between rich and poor _countries_ and between rich and poor _individuals_ within countries. The literature, nevertheless, does not provide an unambiguous support for this statement. Among others, Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002) show that during the last 30 years the global income distribution experienced very little change, Sala-i Martin (2006) argues that global disparities have reduced in the last years, and in a diametrically opposing view, Milanovic (2002) suggests that the global distribution deteriorated between 1988 and 1993.<sup>1</sup> All of the literature on the global income distribution is concerned with _ex-post_ assessments of its changes and a large proportion of this literature is focused on testing whether globalization has increased or decreased global inequality. The present study is quite different from earlier work by focusing on the _ex-ante_ prospects for global income distribution. We develop a novel analytical framework—the Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD), which combines a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a micro-simulation system at the global level and is a further development of the approach in World Bank (2006; Chapter 3) and Bussolo et al

> 1   Most of the discrepancies in the trends in global income distribution arise from the differences in data sources, country/year coverage, and the way in which different studies impute missing data. Bourguignon and Morrison (2002) and Sala-i Martin (2006) use GDP per capita as the measure of average incomes across countries whereas Milanovic (2002) use the mean income reported by household survey data.

2
decrease in a firm’s total value of output and a 0.36 percent decrease in the value added. There is also heterogeneity in the impact of outages on productivity across sectors: the most energy-intensive, technical manufacturers are impacted the most severely by shortages.

In what follows, we provide an institutional and economic background on Pakistan, focusing on electricity shortages and their causes. We then describe the firm-level data and power shortage data in Section 3, describe the empirical model in Section 4, and provide cross-sectional estimates in Section 5. Section 6 offers a discussion and concluding thoughts.

# **2. Background**

Pakistan faces massive electricity shortages. Since 2006, nation-wide power shortages, the difference between projected demand and actual supply, have been steadily increasing each year and have risen to 26 percent of total demand, or 29 TWh in 2013 (Figure 2). To address supply shortfalls, utilities implement systematic rolling blackouts that can last 6 to 14 hours each day. In some areas of Pakistan summertime load shedding of 8 to 10 hours per day is typical, and in some areas up to 18 to 20 hours of load shedding happens on a regular basis.

Multiple price and institutional distortions have contributed to the current power crisis in Pakistan. On the pricing side, historically, electricity price has been set much lower the cost of supply. The gap is financed by direct budget support and cross-subsidization across consumer groups. Recent electricity tariff reforms have substantially lowered subsidy spending from more than 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) per year in the past decade to 0.8 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2014. However, the weighted average end-user tariff is still only about 50 percent of the average supply cost in fiscal year 2014. Underpricing of electricity undermines the incentives of power utilities to provide high-quality services, creating a so-called "subsidy trap" (McRae 2014).

When distributors were not fully paid through the combination of tariffs and subsidies, they in turn could not pay the generators. In Pakistan, accumulated arrears of distribution companies to suppliers, commonly known as circular debt, reached 280 billion rupees, or 1 percent of GDP, on March 31, 2015. Circular debt has caused up to 5 gigawatts (GW) to lie idle, accounting for almost 22 percent of the total installed capacity in Pakistan (World Bank, 2015). Furthermore, when capacity is used, it is substantially inefficient. For example, the average efficiency of gas power plants in 3
- The language of choice has a substantial effect – moving from a school where about 40% of the exams are taken in a language other than Ukrainian (25<sup>th</sup> percentile) to a school where all students take all exams in Ukrainian (75<sup>th</sup> percentile) increases the average score on the Ukrainian exam by about 4 points.

- Controlling for selection by including the participation ratio does not change the results much, even though the participation ratio has a positive and significant effect on the average score, especially for urban areas but also for rural areas. This suggests that better schools have higher grades and higher participation.

- Our explanatory variables explain about 40 percent of the variation in mean scores for rural schools, but substantially less (15 percent) for rural schools.

32
**2**

US -- a fact which may be more sigiiificant in assessing absorption capacities for food or other primary commodities than income. In spite of some newer, poorer members, the average per capita **GNP of the EC-12 is one and** a half times that of the USSR. This may even be understated in terms of living standards, since much of the Soviet GNP reflects defense expenditure.

The EC is also the largest trading economy in the world, accounting for more than a third of world trade. About half of all world trade takes place in Western Europe and its immediate periphery.<sup>2</sup> Even when excluding from the figures intra-EC trade, the EC's external trade alone almost equalled the trade of the US and Japan combined. The EC has great bargaining power in trade negotiations, and its clout in the OECD is overwhelming, since half of OECD membership is constituted by EC countries.

Finally, the EC's development assistance effort is substantially larger than that of the US or the USSR. The share of the EC-12 in world ODA (average 1986/87) was over 35%, compared to the US's 20% and the USSR's **10%.** As Hungary breaks its tight institutional links with the **CMEA.** the EC could soon become the most important export outlet for Hungarian goods and services, given: 1) the limited possibilities that Hungary has to expand exports to its neighbors, also undergoing structural reforms; 2) the economic propinquity to the EC (compared to other sizeable markets), coupled with its huge purchasing capacity; 3) the incorporation into a united Germany of the GDR, an important trading partner of Hungary; 4) the widely diffused knowledge of three Western European languages (German, French and English).

Table 1: Some Comparative Statistics for 1987

||EC-12|US|USSR|
|---|---|---|---|
|Area (000/sa.km.)<br>|2,254.7|9,372.7|22.402.2|
|Population(mil.)|323.8|243.8|283.1|
|GNP,SBn|4,282.0|4,526.7|2500'|
|GNP/per capita (USS)|13,225.4|18,567.3|8,658.2|
|Exports|391.72|243.7|107.6|
|Imports|397.22|422.4|95.9|
|ODA, US$Bn.|19.13|8.9|4.2'|
|ODA/GDP %|0.45|0.20|0.17'|

Source: WDR 1989; COMTRADE; National Accounts; OECD. 1988, as estimated by the CIA

- 2 excluding intra-EC trade

- **3** ODA data for Greece, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain not available.

While changes for the better or for the worse in any of these factors cannot be foreseen, there are other factors which with time will further increase the relative importance of the EC. One is a further broadening of the EC-Hungary

- 2 Narjes (1984), p. 215.
29 effectiveness of condoms, suppositories, and oral contraceptives and could be distributed to customers making contraceptive purchases (Bailey and Zambrano, date). Sales data on these three products were collected before<sup>and after the</sup> introduction of the pamphlets at 60 drugstores. The pamphlets<sup>were introduced at</sup> only 30 of the drugstores and the other 30 vere paired with the<sup>30 experimental</sup> drugstores as a way of measuring substitution toward the experimental drugstores. Comparing the sales at the experimental drugstores before and after the pamphlets vere added, the researchers found that sales of condoms and<sup>suppositories</sup> increased significantly while pill sales increased only slightly. The control drugstores experienced no significant change in sales over this period.

Analysis of the sales of the paired control drugstores<sup>indicated that in 2</sup> of 16, 4 of 10 and 6 of 11 pairs, sales of suppositories, oral contraceptives and condoms respectively fell but that overall, there vas only a net decrease in the condom sales of the control drugstores. Because the data are<sup>strictly from</sup> retail sales, it is difficult to evaluate how much switching<sup>across methods or</sup> across supply sources occurred and therefore, it is difficult<sup>to conclude vhat</sup> the net impact this sort of program has on overall contraceptive use and births prevented, but it does seem that the use of pamphlets can increase<sup>use of condoms</sup> and suppositories. This suggests that retailers could play a bigger<sup>role in</sup> providing contraceptives if they gave customers method-specific information.

Legal Constraints. Obtaining product approval from the<sup>local country's Food</sup> and Drug Administration equivalent is a precondition for -being able to sell a product in most local markets. This can be a long process,<sup>especially for nev</sup> products. In many countries, havirg A,;rican, British, or Svedish<sup>FDA approval</sup> suffices. Social marketing programs have been able to expedite the approval process for socially marketed products, but products destined strictly for commercial outlets may face long delays gaining approval. Delays have been

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