temperature from ERA-5 to construct historical average temperature and probability distribution functions for the period 1979 – 2019. We then calculate the projected changes in temperature as the difference between the projected temperature, taken from CMIP6, and the historical average temperature. Finally, the temperature changes are used to calculate poverty rates (inequality) by multiplying with the baseline estimates in Columns (2), (4), and (6) of Table 1 (Columns (2) and (4) of Table 2). We select the estimates from the long differences model since it embodies any adaptations that farmers have undertaken to short-run change in climate, and thus projections of future climate change impacts would appear more trustworthy than those based on either panel or cross-sectional methods (Burke and Emerick, 2016).

Table A13 (Appendix A) provides a summary of the projected changes for temperature and poverty for different emission pathways. The temperature is predicted to rise by a range of 1.4°C to 5.0°C by 2099. This escalation in temperature may lead to an increase in poverty by 0.7 to 2.7 percentage points, equivalent to a rise of 7.4 percent to 26.6 percent, employing a poverty threshold of $1.9 per day (Panel A). Similarly, the projected impacts on inequality are expected to result in a 0.5 to 1.7 percentage point rise in the Gini index, translating to an increase of 1.4 percent to 4.9 percent (Panel B). The largest increase in poverty and inequality would occur in the scenario without any countervailing strategies based on renewable energy to address climate change. Finally, Figures A8 and A9 (Appendix A) present the projected temperature effects across regions in our sample under both emission pathways and reaffirm our previous findings that poor countries in Africa continue to be most vulnerable to hotter temperature.

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