rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
important source of income.

Figure 3 and Figure 4 indicate substantial growth in real per capita agricultural incomes from 2006 to 2012 based on household survey data. On average, real per capita crop income grew by 9 percent per year, and by 8 percent for the poorest 40 percent. This reflects an increase in crop income between 2011 and 2012, but even when the period prior to 2011 is considered, growth in per capita crop income was robust: 4 percent on average across all households and for the bottom 40 percent. Growth in real per capita livestock income was quite constant at 5 percent annual growth ( 10
stations. This relatively low payout rate likely reflects a number of factors, among them a lack of economies of scale given the small initial market for the product and limited competition among insurance providers. Payout ratios would likely converge to a higher value in a mature market. One limitation of Giné et al. (2007) is that the historical record of rainfall may be an imperfect guide to the future distribution of monsoon events—for example, because global warming has led to a higher probability of extreme outcomes. While some preliminary hypothesis tests fail to find evidence of structural change, these tests are likely not to be very powerful, given our short history of rainfall data and the skewed return distribution. Below we present some additional evidence on actual payouts relative to premiums on policies sold by BASIX since 2003.

# 6.2 Recent payouts

We again use administrative data provided by BASIX to calculate the ratio of total insurance payouts to total premiums each year since 2005. We do the same for livestock insurance policies sold by BASIX. Results are presented in Figure 6.7.

[Figure 6.7 here] Two facts are apparent from the figure. First, average payouts on rainfall insurance are much more volatile, reflecting aggregate variation in the quality of the monsoon. In particular, the severe drought conditions of 2009 corresponded to a surge in payouts, which exceeded 350% of premiums collected.

The second fact is that average returns on the insurance product are actually quite high over this period and in fact are better than actuarially fair based on a simple average of payout ratios across these years. This return is significantly higher than the 30% calculated in Giné et al. (2007). This may reflect some unusual shocks over the past few years, particularly the record drought in 2009. Alternatively, it may be due to structural change in weather conditions, such as
7**|74.7|63.8|57.0|79.0|73.3|
|Percent of seat-km in medium or smaller aircraft|**13.9**|39.3|50.6|42.5|28.3|40.5|
|Percent of carriers passing IATA/IOSA Audit|**1 (as of**<br>**2009)**|0|0|100.0|100.0|0|
|FAA/IASA Audit Status|**No audit**|Failed|No audit|No audit|No audit|No audit|

_Source:_ Bofinger 2009. Derived from AICD national database (www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/tools/data).

_Note:_ The Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index is a commonly accepted measure of market concentration. It is calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in the market and then summing the resulting numbers. An HHI of 100 indicates the market is a monopoly; the lower the HHI, the more diluted the market power exerted by one company/agent.

FAA = U.S. Federal Aviation Administration; IASA = International Aviation Safety Assessment; IATA = International Air Transport Association; IOSA = IATA International Safety Audit; DRC = Democratic Republic of Congo.

# **Challenges**

There is relatively limited competition in the air transport sector. The dominant position of the national carrier TAAG keeps the Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index for Angola’s air transport market relatively high. But this is not to suggest that Angola relies on TAAG alone. Namibian carriers also provide much of the capacity.

Rather than capacity or competition, Angola’s biggest challenge in the air transport sector is safety oversight. All airlines from Angola are on the European Union (EU) blacklist, with exceptions for specified 777s and one 737 operated by TAAG. The latest International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) audit results still show significant room for
# **_5.1 Sample Description_**

This paper is part of a research project that analyzes the fiscal risks from SOEs and PPPs in the electricity and transport sectors. The project focuses on a sample of 19 countries, selected based on the availability of detailed financial information of SOEs. Two of the 19 countries are not included in the PPI database. Therefore, the sample of countries used here are the remaining 17 countries: Albania, Argentina, Bhutan, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burundi, Ethiopia, Georgia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, Kosovo, Peru, Romania, the Solomon Islands, South Africa, and Ukraine. As the broader research agenda focuses on the electricity and transport sectors, the rest of this paper also confines itself to these two sectors.

Table 3 summarizes the active portfolio of the sample countries in terms of portfolio size, number of implemented projects, the distribution of projects by sectors, and type of implementation; it excludes projects that elapsed their imputed or observed contract period. As the PPI database lacks some data values, additional data collection and estimations had to be carried out. Data on the contract period and investment commitments were collected or estimated. Appendix D explains how missing values were imputed. Management and operation of projects without investment commitments, projects determined to have been canceled on further investigation, and projects in disputed territories were dropped from the sample.

17
is at play: cities with strong current performance—surpassing the growth target by a wider margin— tend to withhold effort now to avoid facing a higher target in the future (Weitzman 1980). Indeed, using a regression discontinuity design (RDD), we find cities that truthfully achieved their targets are likely to report a growth smaller than the true growth, compared with those that just failed the target. In addition, they are more likely to report lower growth in their first year in the job when they could scapegoat their predecessors. The Chinese cadre management system thus has a built-in mechanism to contain GDP reporting, at least in some years.

Our paper contributes to two strands of literature. It is related to the literature on bureaucracy and development--see Besley et al. (2021) for a comprehensive survey.<sup>5</sup> Despite the large literature, the top area needing further research is aspects related to the measurement of bureaucratic performance (Besley et al. 2021).<sup>6</sup> Existing studies on senior bureaucrats often measure bureaucratic outputs as certain aggregate outcomes such as GDP growth (Li and Zhou 2005; Jia, Kudamatsu and Seim 2015), revenue generation (Xu 2018), or local development outcomes (Gulzar and Pasquale 2017). We add value by examining how the key performance measure of top local bureaucrats in China, GDP growth, is subject to bureaucratic manipulation, under prevailing career incentives. Such performance manipulation makes it harder to motivate bureaucrats, and could render the incentive design of tournament competition, often viewed as the key design behind China’s growth, less effective. We also show how the ratchet principle also limits the extent of performance manipulation in the Chinese bureaucratic system, and thus partially restores the effectiveness of the tournament competition system.

We also contribute to the literature on local government behaviors and local development in China, one of the most prolific areas of research for studying the contemporary Chinese economy. This literature has emphasized
treatment and supply|137|0|0.0|0.0|
|19|Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding,<br>except compulsory social security|37|0|0.0|0.0|
|20|Employment activities|4|0|0.0|0.0|
||Total employees (in thousand)|33288|11019|24.9|100|

Source: ILOSTAT database, International Labor Organization A noticeable wage gap exists between average earnings of males and females across major industry groups without taking into account differences in workers’ characteristics. Pakistan’s Labor Force Surveys for 2014-2015 show a gender pay gap of 26 percent on average at the national level.<sup>19</sup>

**Table 6: Gender Wage Gap by Economic Activity in Pakistan in 2016**

|**S.No.**|**Economic activity (2016)**|**Men**|**Women**|**Wage Gap (%)**|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|||**Nomi**<br>**earnin**|**nal annual**<br>**gs (in US$)**||
|1|Manufacturing|1644|612|37.2|
|2|Activities of households as employers|1212|576|47.5|
|3|Electricity; gas, steam and air conditioning supply|3324|1596|48.0|
|4|Mining and quarrying|1716|912|53.1|
|5|Real estate activities|2196|1260|57.4|
|6|Professional, scientific and technical activities|2700|1596|59.1|
|7|Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies|4452|2724|61.2|
|
, H., Fang H., and Xu, L. C. (forthcoming). „Eat, drink, firms and government: an investigation of corruption from entertainment expenditures of Chinese firms‟,  Journal of Law and Economics.

- Chen, Q., Goh C., Sun B., and Xu L. C. (2011). „Market integration in China: a survey‟, Asian Development Review, 28, pp. 72-93.

- Cheng, L. K. and Yum K. K. (2000). „What are the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment?  The Chinese experience‟, Journal of International Economics, 51, pp. 379400.

- Cheung, K. and Lin, P. (2004). „Spillover effects of FDI on innovation in China: evidence from provincial data‟, China Economic Review, 15, pp. 25-44.

22
and that intraoffice exposures are sizeable (Table 2, Panel C).<sup>4</sup> The latter indicates that shocks can be more easily transmitted to other countries via the group, as was witnessed during the global crisis in Eastern Europe.

- In 2017 Q1, total outstanding cross-border claims from EMDE groups stood at $847 billion vis-à-vis all counterparties in the whole world and have grown by over 46 percent in the last 5 years.

- Of these global cross-border claims, $227 billion<sup>5</sup> were claims vis-à-vis all counterparties in overseas EMDEs, which have grown by 74 percent in the last 5 years.

- Of these cross-border claims on <u>overseas EMDEs, $126.3 billion were vis-a-vis banks</u> (including intra-group claims), which have grown by 142.6 percent.

- Of the $828.3 billion cross-border claims on all counterparties in the whole world, $515 billion was vis-à-vis <u>banks; $233.4 billion of these claims represent intra-group ties,</u>

> 4 The BIS only tracks cross-border locational claims data for banks headquartered in eight EMDEs: Brazil; Chile; South Africa; Mexico; Panama; the Republic of Korea; Taiwan, China; and Turkey. Also, these data are not nationality- but residence-based. Therefore, the data may capture the activities of AE group subsidiaries in these countries. 5 Data from Turkish banks are not included since the relevant breakdown is not available.

13
# When Goal-Setting Forges Ahead but Stops Short<sup>_∗_</sup>

Asad Islam<sup>_†_</sup> Sungoh Kwon<sup>_‡_</sup> Eema Masood<sup>§</sup> Nishith Prakash<sup>_¶_</sup> Shwetlena Sabarwal<sup>_∥_</sup> Deepak Saraswat<sup>_∗∗_</sup>

## _JEL Codes_ : D9, I20, I25, O15, O55. Keywords: Goal-Setting, Recognition Rewards, Student Performance, and Zanzibar.

> _∗_ We appreciate helpful comments and suggestions from Nathan Fiala, Caroline Hoxby, Tarun Jain, Matt Lowe, Michael Manove, Nirajana Mishra, Dilip Mookherjee, Priya Mukherjee, Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, Philip Oreopoulos, Daniele Paserman, Gautam Rao, Michael Kremer, Stephen Ross, Frank Schilbach, Samer Al Samarrai, Inaam Ul Haq and seminar and conference participants at Boston University, University of Connecticut, and 14th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development, Norms and Behavioral Change Conference (2019), and 17th Midwest International Economic Development Conference. This work was made possible through the leadership and support of Abdulla Mzee Abdulla and Khalid Wazir from the Ministry of Education and Vocation Training (MoEVT) in Zanzibar. We are also grateful for the support of Huma Ali Waheed and Kaboko Nkahinga from the World Bank. Tumainiel Ngowi provided excellent field support. Funding from the Results in Education for All Children (REACH) Trust Fund is gratefully acknowledged. Declarations of Interest: None.

> _†_ Monash University. `asadul.islam@monash.edu` .

- Korea Institute of Public Finance. `sokwon@kipf.re.kr` .

- §World Bank. `emasood@worldbank.org` .

- University of Connecticut, IZA, HiCN, GLO, and CReAM. `nishith.prakash@uconn.edu` .

> _∥_ World Bank. `ssabarwal@worldbank.
Policy Research Working Paper 6217

# **Abstract**

This paper has three primary objectives: (i) to investigate potential problems regarding Mozambique’s most recent nationally representative household survey on poverty dynamics; (ii) to assess the robustness and reliability of official poverty statistics; and (iii) to provide alternative estimates of poverty and welfare indicators in light of the methodological and analytical issues raised in areas (i) and (ii). It is determined that at least two significant weaknesses affect the official poverty-rate estimates: measurement errors in consumption data and flaws in the methodology used to calculate poverty lines (the cost-ofbasic-needs approach based on provincial food bundles with entropy correction). A number of observations appear to be affected by substantial measurement errors, which severely distort the official poverty statistics. The paper provides methods to correct the consumption distribution by recalculating poverty lines based on a single national food basket—as opposed to the current estimates, which are based on province-specific food baskets. The revised poverty statistics differ considerably from the official estimates of poverty across provinces and are far more consistent with other poverty indicators. In addition, poverty appears to be highly concentrated in certain areas, with dramatically higher rates found in Central and Northern Mozambique, as well as in rural areas overall, compared with relatively low rates in Southern Mozambique and in the country’s urban centers. These findings substantially contradict the government’s official poverty figures, which appear to systematically overestimate poverty rates in Mozambique’s Southern provinces and urban areas while simultaneously underestimating the prevalence of poverty in the country’s Central and Northern regions and in rural areas nationwide.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Departyment, Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at vmolini
|0.5|0.6|0.7|0.8|0.8|268|162|
|Resource intensiveproducts|0.5|0.5|0.5|0.4|0.4|0.4|89|82|

Source: Computations based on EU25 data from UN COMTRADE Statistics.

Yet, low technology and unskilled labor intensive products still remain Turkey’s major specialization in EU markets. Turkey has a very strong revealed export specialization in EU markets for these products. The value of Export Specialization Index (ESI—ratio of their share in Turkish EU-oriented exports to their share in EU total external imports) is well below unity,<sup>8</sup> albeit it has been declining. Turkish suppliers have a significant and growing presence in these markets. Turkish exports accounted for 8 percent of EU total imports of low tech and unskilled labor intensive products in 2003. Furthermore, Turkish exporters have been consistently outperforming other competitors, as their share in EU external imports of these products has been 8 The export specialization index (ESij) for a product _j_ of country _i_ , is specified here as follows: ESij = (xij/Xi) /(mj/M), where: xij is country i’s exports of product j to the EU; Xi = Σ j xij is country i’s total exports to the EU; Mj = Σ j xij is EU’s total ‘external’ imports of a product _j_ ; M = Σ i Σ j xij is EU’s total external imports. A value for this index below unity indicates a comparative disadvantage. If the index takes a value greater than unity, the country is considered to have a "revealed" comparative advantage in the product. In this particular case, Turkey has a revealed comparative advantage in a product if its export of that item as a share of its total exports exceeds the EU imports of the item as a share of EU
The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the literature review, followed by the description of the country context and data sources in Section 3. Section 4 lays out the empirical strategy and presents the results, and Section 5 concludes.

# **2. Literature Review**

Across high-income countries, there is a longstanding literature on respondent selection and labor reporting in nationally-representative surveys. In the U.S., for example, a large number of survey experiments have been conducted to better understand sources of survey measurement error in earnings by matching individual survey data with a concurrent, “validation” dataset (often administrative data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) or Social Security Administration, or employer’s records). Bound et al. (2001) provide a review of these validation studies, from 1950 up until 1999.

Further, several recent studies have matched individual-level survey rounds from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) with administrative tax records from the IRS, to understand different sources of measurement error in earnings reporting. This includes proxy response, which can reduce survey costs and potentially provide less biased information on sensitive topics,<sup>2</sup> but also carries the risk of inaccurate reporting due to informational gaps, or differences in preferences and motivation between the proxy and intended respondent (see Cobb, 2018, and Bound et al., 2001). Cognitive issues related to respondents’ interpretation of questions, and ability to recall past outcomes accurately, additionally need to be considered (see Moore et al., 2000, and Bickart et al., 1990).

Tamborini and Kim (2013), for example, match the SIPP and IRS tax records at the individuallevel to find that proxy reporting leads to significant underreporting of earnings for single female workers (also see Hill, 1987). Cristia and Schwabish (2009) demonstrate that other covariates (in particular, earning higher incomes) lead to underreporting in the
.g., Bjorklund and Salvanes (2011)) provide substantial discussions on the advantages of sibling correlation as a measure, especially in the data scarce environment common in developing countries. The most widely cited is a study by Dahan and Gaviria (2001) who report estimates of sibling correlation in schooling for 16 Latin American countries. But as noted earlier, they do not follow the methodology developed in Solon et al. (1991), and Solon (1999). They use a measure of educational failure (lack of grade

> 19At the individual country level, recent contributions on intergenerational educational mobility in developing countries include Kundu and Sen (2022), Azam and Bhatt (2015), Azam (2016), Emran and Shilpi (2015) on India, Fan et al. (2021), Emran and Sun (2015) on China, Torche (2015b) on Mexico, Assaad and Saleh (2018) on Jordan; Ahsan et al. (2023), Ahsan et al. (2021) on Indonesia. For surveys of this literature, please see Iversen et al. (2019), Torche (2019), and Emran and Shilpi (2021).

> 20These studies rely on census data from IPUMS.

8
# **1.** **<mark>Introduction</mark>**

<mark>Do parents’ early childhood exposure to refugee shocks impact their children’s health outcomes? This paper addresses this question by looking retrospectively at the 1993-2001 refugee crisis in Northwestern Tanzania and studying the likelihood of stunting for children born to mothers who lived through the refugee crisis during their early childhood.</mark> <mark>Early childhood exposure to economic and political shocks is known to have persistent and long-lasting adverse consequences in adulthood and across generations (Alderman et al., 2006; Currie, 2009; Almond et al., 2005; Maluccio et al., 2009; Almond and Currie, 2011; Shah and Steinberg, 2013). In a recent paper, Akresh et al. (2018) provide evidence of the intergenerational impact of conflict exposure on children born to women who were directly exposed to the 1967-1970 Nigerian Civil War. They found that exposure of mothers to civil war had an adverse impact on child growth, survival, and education. In a similar study, Tafere (2016) found that children born to mothers who were exposed to the 1983-85 Ethiopian famine in their first 3 years of life have poor health status, lower schooling achievement and perform poorly in standardized tests.</mark><sup>3</sup> <mark>Cook et al. (2018) use representative survey data from the United States and found evidence of a multigenerational effect of in-utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on education, economic, and health outcomes of the children and grandchildren of those affected. Likewise, Caruso (2017) investigates the long-term and intergenerational effects of childhood exposure to natural disasters that occurred in Latin America 100 years ago. He finds that children who were in utero and young at the time of the natural disasters are less likely to accumulate human and physical capital in adulthood (they have worse health and fewer assets). Most importantly, he finds evidence of an
International Settlements (May 1989, December 1993, July 1994, December 1994, and May 1995)_

**_Paymentprice elasticities._** Own prices, which are small in magnitude, vary little over time, and may not depend on incremental use, seemingly have exerted little influence on the choice or use of payment methods. Mean own price elasticities for paper giro, electronic giro, and credit card use ranged from -.09 to -.26 and, while significant, appear to be quite inelastic. Price elasticities for check and debit card use were slightly positive but insignificant. In contrast, the influence on payment instrument use from cultural and institutional factors, such as crime rates, bank concentration, and the availability of alternative payment methods, has been strong (Humphrey, Pulley, and Vesala, 1996).

Payment instrument price information is more suitable in Scandinavia as countries there are among those that actually charge all users a price per transaction for different non-cash payments and have also been increasing the relative price of paper-based instruments to reflect better the lower supply costs of most electronic payment alternatives. Based on survey information of bank prices for check and point-of-sale electronic payments in Norway between 1989 and 1993, the implied elasticity of substitution between paper and electronic payments is s = 4.13 (computed from Bank for International Settlements, May 1995). This implies that payment users are in fact very sensitive to relative payment prices since a 10% rise in the relative user price of checks seems to be associated with a 41 % reduction in their relative use. Although additional (and verifying) information is not available, the experience of Norway would likely be duplicated elsewhere as