rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
technologically advanced, capital intensive, and globally integrated industries typically have lower unorganized sector shares in India.

Discussions of India’s industrial landscape and transformation often use the terms “traditional” and “modern”, although there are no established or precise definitions of these sectors. To provide some traction for this work, we defined these sectors ourselves through grouping the industries in Tables 3a and 3b. We classify an industry as being modern if its unorganized share is the less than the unweighted average unorganized share across industries for its sector in 2000-2001. Thus, by definition, the traditional sector has a larger unorganized worker share than the modern sector. More important, the unorganized share is very stagnant in traditional industries for both manufacturing and services. This share is increasing in the modern manufacturing sector and decreasing in modern services.

These descriptive tables highlight several key traits of India’s unorganized sector. First, the unorganized sector is very large. Second, the unorganized sector is extremely persistent. Despite India’s rapid changes over the past two decades, the unorganized share shows no signs of declining. While the organized sector has grown over the past two decades, the unorganized sector has kept pace.<sup>4</sup> Third, this persistence is not due to particular subsets of states or industries. Despite the great range in average levels of unorganized sector shares in Tables 2-3b, the persistence over time is pervasive. Thus, the persistence is not due to diverging trends, with some states or industries becoming much more organized, and others becoming less so.

Tables 4a and 4b quantify these observations. Table 4a shows correlations of unorganized sector changes with district-level traits taken from the 1991 and 2001 Population Censuses. Column headers indicate sector and time period. Panel A considers how district traits correlate with the change in unorganized sector share of district employment; Panel B quantifies instead correlations with log unorganized sector employment growth. We show results from the district level to maximize the number of observations and the granularity in local conditions
this is the case should be of interest to economic policy-makers, whose objective it might be to maximizing the economy’s production.

The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate whether such efficiency losses do in fact occur in Egypt. More specifically, we measure the causal impact of chronic diseases on the probability of being employed, on the number of working hours supplied per week and on the hourly wage earned in Egypt, among people in their working age 16-64. Although many papers have looked at the impacts of health on the labor market (for recent surveys, see Currie and Madrian, 1999; Rocco and Suhrcke, 2008), few have specifically focused on chronic diseases (Gammon, 2005; Wilson, 2001; Loprest et al. 1995; Suhrcke et al., 2007) and to the best of our knowledge no study has looked at middle income countries in MENA. The reason for focusing on Egypt is that it is one of the largest middle income countries, with a population of more than 70 million and, in many respects, it is representative of the Arab world, a particularly distinguished region around the

> 1 The World Bank, WDI 2010 data:  % of children under 1 year immunized against measles; and under 5 mortality rate per 1,000.

2 The World Bank, WDI 2010 data: Life expectancy increased from 55 years in 1978 to 70 in 2008. 2
Policy Research Working Paper 8631

# **Abstract**

A growing body of work has shown that the quality of national institutions that enforce written contracts plays an important role in shaping a country’s comparative advantage. Using highly disaggregated bilateral and unique harmonized firm-level trade data across a large number of countries, this paper contributes to this literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms through which institutional frictions affect the pattern of aggregate trade flow, distinguishing the effects on the intensive and extensive margins. The analysis finds that contractual friction distorts countries’ trade pattern beyond its effect on domestic production structure, by deterring the probability of exporting (the extensive margin) and export sales after entry (the intensive margin), particularly in industries that rely more heavily on relationship-specific inputs (more vulnerable to holdup problems). The analysis also finds that contractual frictions matter more for the intensive margin than the extensive margin of exporting. In addition, better contracting institutions increase the probability of survival of new export products in more contract-intensive industries. These results have important policy implications for developing countries that seek to boost export growth but many of which suffer from poor contracting institutions.

This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/research. The authors may be contacted at hmaemir@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the
constrained) access to credit to finance non-land inputs to farming, which we assume is only possible once land can put up as collateral. We assume that the reform does not decrease farmers’ marginal returns to non-land wealth. For the poorest, we also assume that the reform does not increase own food output at given land. More formally:

> 17 This follows from our assumption that utility is separable between food and consumer durables.

> 18 For supportive evidence see Deininger and Jin (2006) (using data for Ethiopia), who also refer to earlier literature, not all of which is supportive.

> 19 Van de Walle (2003) and Ngo (2004) provide evidence that schooling raises agricultural productivity in Vietnam. A more general model would allow for interaction effects with land holding.

> 20 At sufficiently high _A_ 0 some farm-households in the model will employ (presumably un-skilled) wage labor in farming. Given our focus on the poor we do not model this explicitly, but we note some implications along the way.

10
announced that all Venezuelan forced migrants registered in RAMV could regularize their migratory status by applying for PEP. Second, the PEP program did not have any eligibility requirements and was not paired with policies other than registration in RAMV, which was open to all Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. Third, unlike other contexts in which language and cultural differences explain many obstacles faced by forced migrants in host countries, Venezuelans and Colombians speak the same language and share similar cultures and traits. Thus, PEP provides a clean context to study the effects of regularization programs unmediated by a culture clash.

To evaluate PEP’s impact, we surveyed 2,232 Venezuelan forced migrants who arrived in Colombia between January 2017 and December 2018, thus including migrants who arrived before and after RAMV. We designed the sample to represent cities with the largest share of Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia: Barranquilla, Bogot ́a, Medell ́ın (three of the largest cities), and a fourth “region” of smaller cities. Since forced migrants are a hardto-reach population, we constructed the sampling frame for the survey using the RAMV census, referrals from other forced migrants, and databases of local migrant organizations.<sup>2</sup> The survey data enabled us to examine the impact of PEP on three groups of outcomes: socioeconomic and health well-being, access to rights and services, and labor market consequences. This paper concentrates on the first dimension—socioeconomic and health wellbeing—while the latter two allow us to discern possible mechanisms. Each dimension includes a series of individual outcomes and a summary index. The survey took place between October 2020 and February 2021. This analysis thus provides a picture of PEP’s short-term effects two years after its enactment.

Despite the advantages for causal identification produced by the circumstances of PEP’s rollout, registration in RAMV and PEP was voluntary, so self-selection could potentially confound the identification of effects. For this reason, our empirical analysis follows a fuzzy that forced who arrived before regression discontinuity methodology compares
sup> A coordinated effort by several sovereigns and/or several multilateral institutions could help reduce these costs substantially. Finally, to be an efficient instrument for conducting lender of last resort operations, the global currency would need to be at least as “credible” as existing national currencies that serve as reserve currencies.

In addition to these “internationalist” (or “regionalist”) proposals, there is another alternative for emerging market economies: go at it alone. They can accumulate reserves and take initial steps towards “internationalizing” their currencies. International reserves can be drawn upon to make payments on foreign obligations during times of limited access to foreign currency capital markets. If a country is able to take the steps necessary to make their currency acceptable to foreigners as payment for transactions, they can then borrow from foreigners in their own currency. In this case, there is no need to access foreign currency when confronted with external shocks. This process is not an easy one, and as the historical survey above revealed, very few countries have ever been able to fully internationalize their currencies—even if there have been some fairly rapid and dramatic shifts in the global status of currencies over time.

Why do countries hold foreign currency reserves at all? In principle, under a pure floating exchange rate and perfect international capital markets, there is no need for reserves. In that hypothetical setting, there are no central bank purchases or sales of foreign currency on the foreign exchange market, and if capital markets are perfect, central banks can always borrow whenever foreign currency needs arise. In earlier times, with the gold standard, a negative balance of payments due to some external or domestic shock would result in a loss of gold. If the imbalance persisted, the loss of gold would lead to an eventual parity adjustment or outright abandonment of the gold standard. In more recent years, with the advent of much higher international capital flows, international reserves can be a self-insurance against the “sudden stops” alluded to above. In a
Trinidad and Tobago suggest that privatization without successful regulation (Argentina) can produce worse results than corporatization and various types of management contract (Tanzania and Trinidad and Tobago). An important factor behind increasing the letter flow of the incumbent captured in UPU statistics may be better management at the top of the incumbent itself—ill captured by our measure of reform.

# **A New Model**

At the moment in many countries the “postal sector” is seen as coterminous with the post office. It may be more constructive to view letter and parcel delivery as the “postal sector”. Some proportion of letters and parcels in developing countries are delivered via the post office, which is one service provider in the postal sector. The post office frequently also provides services in other sectors, including the financial and government services sectors.<sup>24</sup>

> 22 Alex Dieke (in correspondence with the author) notes a similar phenomenon occurred in Europe in the 1990s, where TPG and Deutsche Post both saw improved routing times and reduced costs and employment.

> 23 Use of another measure of “reform”—countries with a World Bank project listed in the Bank’s postal projects database which began before 2000, that had a policy/regulatory reform component—suggests that project countries see slightly above average performance on the performance index.  However, the result is not statistically significant and is based on only eight countries that fit the criteria (Gabon, Guatemala, Guinea Bissau, Morocco, Tanzania, Togo, and Trinidad and Tobago).

> 24 The correlation matrix does not appear to suggest a particularly strong link between the level of postal financial services used by the population and basic postal performance.  Nonetheless, suggestive correlations do appear. Savings and giro accounts per capita is strongly correlated with receipts per employee (unlike the postal index itself), suggesting that the postal financial network may play an important role in creating income for the postal network and reflecting, perhaps, the greater importance to many post
A second factor highly correlated with dropouts is the pre-EMS academic performance. Given the strict promotion criteria, it is not surprising that pre-EMS low achievement levels—in primary or lower secondary—is one of the most important predictors of upper secondary dropout rates. For instance, using a longitudinal data set following students between 6<sup>th</sup> and 12<sup>th</sup> grades, de Hoyos, Estrada, and Vargas (2018) show that an improvement of one standard deviation in test scores at the end of 6<sup>th</sup> grade increases the probability of on-time high school graduation by 10 percentage points.

Overall, low achievement levels, particularly in math, are one of the most important challenges in EMS. <mark>According to the results of PLANEA, a standardized test applied to those finishing EMS in 2017, 66.1% of the students in 12</mark><sup>th</sup> <mark>grade had an “insufficient” achievement level, 23.3% obtained “regular”, 8% of all graduates had a “good” achievement level and only 2.5% achieved an “excellent” level. EMS students display not only low basic cognitive skills, but the evidence suggests that they have low levels of</mark> socio-emotional skills. According to the data from the socioemotional module of PLANEA 2016, 20% of students declared feeling stressed very often and 28% felt they cannot control important issues of their lives.

# **2.3 The PODER Pilot Program**

With the objective of reducing EMS dropout rates, SEP, together with the World Bank and two local universities, designed the pilot program “Programa de Oportunidades y Desarrollo para Evitar Riesgos (PODER)”. The design of the program acknowledges that reducing upper secondary dropouts is a complex task involving remedial actions to close skills gaps that, in many cases, have been accumulating since infancy.

The program
4<br>5.2 Soroti<br>5 Tororo<br>2005 2009 2010 2011<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Number of fatalities within 25km of survey<br>households (average)<br>25<br>20<br>Central<br>15<br>Eastern<br>10 Northern<br>5 Western<br>0<br>2005 2009 2010 2011<br>Beans price ((log of average real price in 2011<br>Ugandan Shillings)<br>7<br>Arua<br>6.8 Kabale<br>Lira<br>6.6<br>Masindi<br>6.4 Mbarara<br>6.2 Soroti<br>Tororo<br>6<br>2005 2009 2010 2011 Kampala<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Rainfall: staff calculations using geoWRSI v 3.0, with global PET and RFE v2 (2001-2014) time series. Fatalities: ACLED. Prices: UBOS market price data collected for the CPI.

8
Figure 6: Average Firm Size under the Doing Business Indicator’s Measures of Barriers to Entry <!-- Start of picture text --> 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4<br>Data_country/Data USA<br>1.4<br>1.2<br>1.0<br>0.8<br>0.6<br>Distorted/Undistorted<br>0.4<br>0.2<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: The figure plots the average firm size in each country’s stationary equilibrium under distortion pairs � _τi_<sup>_E,DBI_</sup> _, γi_ �. _τi_<sup>_E,DBI_</sup> stands for the entry barriers from the World Bank’s Doing Business Indicator, and _γi_ denotes the productivity elasticity estimate of idiosyncratic distortions. Units in the vertical axis are reported as ratios between the distorted average firm size relative to the one in the undistorted allocation. The horizontal axis reports the average firm size in each country relative to the US.

# **5.5.1 Validation for the Endogenous Productivity Distribution**

One important channel through which distortions translate into changes in the economy’s average firm size is the innovation decisions of firms and the associated stationary distribution of productivity. Biases in the properties of these distributions will transmit directly into the average firm size and therefore on the estimate of the entry barrier.

We seek reassurance in the model’s prediction for the productivity distribution by exploring two sources of validation: the life cycle dynamics of firms and the share of firms at the top of the productivity distribution. Hsieh and Klenow [2014] show salient differences in the life cycle of firms between the US, India, and Mexico, which can be used to gauge the plausibility of the firms’ innovation decisions in response to
(JMP). 2010. ―Zimbabwe Estimates for the Use of Improved Drinking-Water Sources.‖ www.wssinfo.org/resources/documents.html.

- ———. 2010. ―Zimbabwe Estimates for the Use of Improved Sanitation Facilities.‖ www.wssinfo.org/resources/documents.html.

World Bank. 2009a. _Zimbabwe WSS Sector Budget Review_ . Draft October 30, 2009.

# Other

IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2009. Zimbabwe: 2009 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zimbabwe. Report No. 09/139, May 2009.

- International Energy Association. 2010. ―World Energy Outlook: The Electricity Access Database.‖ www.worldenergyoutlook.org/database_electricity10/electricity_database_web_2010.htm.

- ———. 2011. ―Electricity/Heat Data for Zimbabwe.‖ www.iea.org/stats/electricitydata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=ZW.

54
g. Eichengreen, Rose, and Wyplosz 1995; Frankel and Rose 1996; Kaminsky and Reinhart 1999). Balance sheet variables became more prominent in later early warning models, especially in predicting banking crises (e.g. Demirgüç-Kunt and Detragiache 1998; Borio and Lowe 2002; Rose and Spiegel 2012). Studies on predicting sovereign debt crises emphasize the importance of solvency and liquidity measures, as well as factors that explain currency crises (e.g. Manasse, Roubini, and Schimmelpfenning 2003; Dawood, Horsewood, and Strobel 2017).

The most common estimation methods used in the empirical literature on predicting crises are logit and probit models. The baseline specification used in this study is a panel logit model with random effects, but for robustness purposes, a random effects probit model and a fixed effects logit model are also used. The Hausman test suggests that the random effects model is appropriate for debt and banking crises but not for currency crises. However, even for currency crises, the coefficient estimates and their statistical significance remain similar in fixed effects and random effects models.

To exploit the time and cross-sectional dimensions, a panel dataset of 139 EMDEs with annual data over the period 1970–2018 is constructed. The basic structure of the model takes the form: 9
an important and open question from the research and policy perspective: To what extent do educators understand the importance of early childhood development in Nepal, and what obstacles stand in the way of delivering education that promotes growth for children ages 3-5? This issue is particularly relevant for Nepal where ECD provision has expanded rapidly (see section 2) in the past few years, but the quality of provision remains uncertain.

While studies have shown short run positive impacts of providing information and incentives, the long run sustainability of impacts observed in these studies still remains an open question. Another related issue is that of the studies showing the impacts of ECD interventions on various outcomes often being very small in scale and sample sizes,<sup>3</sup> leaving the replicability of these interventions at a large scale as an open question for researchers. In order to implement interventions that are effective in achieving long run impacts and delivering these impacts at a large scale, policymakers need to consider three important questions: (i) in what areas of early childhood development is educator knowledge most lacking? (ii) what do these gaps look like for children with disabilities, who often need special attention to promote their development? (iii) what are the largest constraints to addressing these gaps?

In this paper, we try to address these questions in Eastern Nepal using a survey of 206 teachers and 225 head teachers in early childhood education and development (ECED) centers in one district. ECED centers are devoted to early childhood development and work with children in the critical age range: 0-5. This paper discusses results from two surveys conducted in April-May 2020. Results from these surveys highlight the gaps in teachers’ understanding of various domains of ECD and their understanding of disability in children. We also collect and report information on barriers the teachers face in providing effective education and early childhood development to their students.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 discusses background information on ECD in Nepal, section 3 discusses the data,
Employment Fund’s donors,<sup>9</sup> the Adolescent Girls Employment Initiative (AGEI) was launched in 2009 to expand the program’s reach to an additional 4,410 Nepali women aged 16-24 over a three-year period.

Unique characteristics of this impact evaluation include:

- A large study sample (4,677 individuals in the pooled 2010-2012 cohorts examined in this report)

- Particular focus on the outcomes of women aged 16-24 as well as the outcomes of a broader category of youth (men and women aged 16-35)

- Socioeconomic survey data of participants and a control group of non-participants as well as administrative follow-up data on program participants

- Exhaustive tracking of program participants over time that produced high response rates.

- Examination of a large set of outcome domains, including employment and earnings, empowerment and self-confidence, risky behaviors, and impacts on the household.

We find, approximately two years into the program, the EF program positively improved employment outcomes. EF training program participation generated an increase in non-farm employment of 15 to 16 percentage points for an overall gain of 46 percent. The program also generated an average monthly earnings gain of 921 NRs monthly (  12 USD). Given that the average monthly income at baseline was 1272 NRs (  17 USD), the EF program impact generated an economically meaningful income gain of about 72 percent for the combined 2010-2012 cohorts.).We find that the program’s impacts on employment were larger for women than for men, though the impacts on other economic outcomes were similar for both sexes. We also detect no difference in impacts when comparing older (24-35) and younger women (age 1624), indicating that the program is equally effective for the younger women targeted under the AGEI.

This report’s employment estimates are comparable, though somewhat higher, than other recent experimental interventions in developing countries. Estimates of employment impacts in job training programs in Latin America by Attanasio et al. (2008) and Alzua et al. (2013)