rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
# I. Introduction

Improved targeting has the potential to significantly increase the poverty impact of welfare spending in Sri Lanka. In 2002, 42 percent of all transfers provided by Samurdhi (the country’s main social safety net program) were received by the poorest 20 percent of households.<sup>2</sup> By 2012, this had slipped to 39 percent (World Bank, 2016c). Recognizing this, the government is currently conducting a review of the rules by which households are selected into welfare programs. The results of this paper are intended to inform that review.

A proxy means test (PMT) is an index of observable and verifiable household characteristics that serves as a proxy for household welfare. The PMT is commonly used to target social safety net programs in situations where verifiable income data are not available. Since the PMT essentially ranks households by welfare level, the same formula can be used for targeting a range of different welfare programs, adopting different eligibility cutoff scores for each program and possibly adding other criteria as well.<sup>3</sup> In this way, the PMT can serve as the basis for targeting of a range of different welfare programs. Having a common targeting approach for various programs, based on a single PMT score, ensures consistency of targeting across programs, minimizes overlaps, and provides a basis for future harmonization of programs.

An earlier study by Narayan and Yoshida (2005) developed a PMT formula for Sri Lanka based on a household survey collected during 1999‐2000.<sup>4</sup> Sri Lanka has developed rapidly since then, however, and as the country has transitioned to middle income status, the poverty rate per the (official) national poverty line has fallen from 22.7 percent in 2002 to 4.1 percent in 2016. Due to these major demographic and structural changes, and to incorporate areas of the country not covered in the earlier work, this paper presents a PMT formula based on data from the 2016
will be unbiased regardless of the extent of underreporting. A data analysis in the subsequent section will show that reporting abortions as miscarriages is highly unlikely.

The second issue is that some women who reported miscarriages may have latent status _A*_ , but miscarried before aborting. Hotz et al. (2005) use data on the actual proportion of abortions to address this problem.<sup>8</sup> Given the quality of abortion data in ENADID, this option is unavailable here. However, ENADID contains data on the length of pregnancy at the time of the miscarriage.

> pregnancy, it is recorded as a stillbirth ( _mortinato_ ). In this paper we refer to both: aborto and mortinato as miscarriages.

> 8 Hotz et al. (2005) demonstrate that they can identify the effect of having a baby on a woman of latent status _A*_ if they use indicator for abortion as an instrument for not giving birth.

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of carload waybills for all U.S. rail traffic collected by the Surface Transportation Board. It includes information about the commodity, origin and destination, weight and freight charges from the sampled shipments. Evidently, each lacking some critical variables, whether any of these surveys is helpful to the user depends on the question at hand. Yet, as will be detailed below, they can be valuable inputs to other methods for imputing or estimate freight costs.

Given the dearth of high-quality surveys conducted and disseminated by national agencies in developing countries, practitioners and researchers combine various datasets on truck fleets and trade flows within countries to get a picture of road transportation— see Allen et al. (2021) for a recent example. An alternative is to conduct a special survey from scratch, possibly with the help of a national statistical agency in sampling from

> 3In principle, balance sheets of transport providers would distinguish their revenues and costs. In practice, however, most transportation providers in developing countries are not publicly listed or even incorporated. Such owner-operators are unlikely to follow rigorous accounting principles and prepare balance sheets.

> 4Behrens et al. (2018) convert freight costs reported in this survey to a percentage ad-valorem measure by using additional information on the value of cross-border shipments by exporters in one wave of the survey.

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# **5 The Cost Effectiveness of Insecticide-Treated Net Allocations in Kenya**

On April 25, 2000, heads of African countries met in The African Summit on Roll Back Malaria and signed the Abuja declaration with the aim of reducing malaria mortality by one half by 2010. One of the three main measures, that was agreed on, was the expansion of ITN usage by population at risk—particularly pregnant women and children under 5 years—to 60 percent by 2005 (Abuja Declaration 2000). In order to increase the availability and usage of ITNs in Kenya, the already existing retail sale of ITNs at full cost was complemented by social marketing campaigns selling ITNs at a subsidized price, by routine distribution through antenatal and child health clinics, and by free mass distribution campaigns (Kenya Malaria Indicator Survey 2010).<sup>13</sup> Most of these programs have been funded by international development initiatives. Their cost effectiveness might be highly policy-relevant, particularly for decision making on funding of further ITN keep-up campaigns.

The overall costs of ITN delivery programs in Kenya are not known. As for costs per ITN delivered, the experience shows that the costs vary greatly among the different delivery channels, with the amount of subsidy per ITN, between the type of bednet, and over time. In the light of the existing literature on the costs and cost effectiveness of various ITN delivery initiatives in Sub-Saharan Africa, we estimate the cost per ITN delivered to be US$ 5.<sup>14</sup> The benefit of interest in this case is the number of infant deaths averted by the increases in ITN ownership. If we take a 13 Social marketing campaigns on ITNs have been conducted by Population Services International Kenya (PSI/Kenya) since 2002. The main focus of the campaigns has been to increase the awareness of ITNs' contribution to avoiding malaria and to deliver partially subsidized ITNs through the commercial sector (National Social Marketing Centre 2010). Distribution of heavily subsidized ITNs and long-lasting insecticide-treated bednets
preferential access to Central American countries through a series of trade programs. These programs included the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI), which was established in 1983 and aimed to promote economic development in the Caribbean region through trade preferences. The CBI provided duty-free treatment for certain products from eligible countries, including many Central American countries. In addition, the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) provided preferential access for a wide range of products from developing countries, including many products from Central American countries. These trade programs were important for Central American countries, as they provided a competitive advantage for their exports to the United States.

These regional dynamics show that while the CAFTA-DR agreement represented a significant step forward in the region’s trade integration efforts, as it provided for greater market access, the reduction of tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and the protection of intellectual property rights, it was part of a long-term trade liberalization dynamic in the region. Many initiatives have aimed to boost trade and investment within the region and have also facilitated the participation of Central American countries in the global economy. We aim to study the impact of CAFTA-DR in this context and to solve the empirical identification challenges arriving from those dynamics.

# **3 Data**

We use the Eora Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) database, which provides a panel data set of trade flows, including reliable data on intra-national flows (Lenzen et al., 2012, 2013). This dataset covers bilateral trade flows across sectors for 189 countries over the period 1990–2015, and has several advantages for our purposes.<sup>7</sup> First, the dataset includes intra-national trade flows, which are needed for theory-consistent gravity estimations. As demonstrated by Baier et al. (2019), the estimates of RTAs are affected by the inclusion of domestic trade flows. Second, it has a wide coverage both in terms of countries and time. The large country coverage is essential for analyses focusing on developing countries, which are often left out due to data
one antenatal consultation during their most recent pregnancy and the rate has increased to 96 percent in the follow-up survey. However, the rates of pregnant women who received the recommended number of antenatal consultations and timely initiation of care are substantially lower. In the follow up survey, 77 percent reported having received their first consultation during the first trimester and 70 reported having received at least four consultations. We do not find significant impacts of the PBF program on either of these outcomes.

We find a significant difference between the treatment arms in receiving postnatal care within the three days after being discharged after delivery. The baseline survey questionnaire did not distinguish between care received while women were still in the maternity ward and care received after they returned to their homes. Therefore, the results presented in the table come from an analysis using propensity score weighting approach. We find an effect of 18 percentage points that is statistically significant at the 99% level.

We do not find any impact of the PBF program on family planning. It is important to keep in mind that our sample is not representative of women of reproductive age. Households were selected if women were pregnant in the preceding two years. Family planning preferences and choices in this sample may be distinct from those of the general population of women of reproductive age. In the baseline survey, 60 percent of the women reported to use a family planning method or to be exclusively breastfeeding an infant. Twenty-seven percent of women reported using a modern method of contraception. Out of the women who wanted to stop or delay fertility, 67 percent were using any family planning method (including exclusive breastfeeding) and 34 percent used a modern method. As can be seen in Panel C of Table 6, the PBF intervention was not successful in reducing this unmet need for family planning. We tested the impact separately for all methods and for modern methods. We also conducted a separate test for the full sample and only those wishing to delay or stop fertility. None of the impact coefficients is statistically significant.

Lastly
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|Country,<br>ta<br>economy, or<br>territory|stclubtis<br>P<br>Date|hedcensus<br>opulation<br>(1000) *|Source for population<br>(mid-1985)|Source for fertility<br>(1985-90, unless indicated)|Source for mortality<br>(1985-90, unless irdicated)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|British<br>Virgin|May80|12 F|UNPVSR<br>1/88 (official<br>est.)|--||
|islands||||||
|Brunei|Aug81|193 F|UNPVSR<br>4/87 (official<br>est.)|Based on UNPVSR<br>4/87|Based on UNPVSR<br>4/87|
|Bulgaria|Dec 85|8948 F|UNPVSR<br>7/86 (official<br>est.)|Based onINED10/87|Based on UNPVSR<br>4/87|
|Burkina Faso|Dec 85|7747 F|Bankprojection from census|Bank est.|U.N. 1988 revision (prelim.)|
|Burma|Mar83|35308 F|U.N. 1988 revision (prelim.)|Based on U.N. 1988 revision<br>(pretim.)|Based on U.N. 1984<br>assessment|
|Bururdi|Aug79|4114 F|Bank projection from census|Bank assessment of 1965,<br>1970-71, and 1979 censuses<br>and 1979 postcensal<br>|Bank est.|
|||||demographic survey||
|Cameroon|Apr 76|7090 F|Bank projection<br>from census,<br>adjusted for 7.4X undercount|1980-85, world Fertility<
(2009) and Mansuri (2012) compare state versus community constructed systems, and Trent and Chavis (2009) analyze the impact of competition on infrastructure quality among subprojects. This paper contributes to this small but growing literature on the ability of project-induced participation to generate long-term local infrastructure management.

We use a 10-year old panel data from Indonesia’s community-led rural water project, the Program for Community-Based Water Supply and Sanitation ( _Program Air Minum dan Sanitasi Berbasis Masyarakat_ , PAMSIMAS) to explore why some communities have been able to manage water systems for over 10 years on their own while the majority breaks down much sooner. Using project- and village-level data, we first test for determinants of sustainability and then use in-depth qualitative analysis of outlier cases to explore mechanisms or channels of impact.<sup>5</sup>

> 1 The terms ‘water systems’, ‘water schemes’, and ‘water points’ are used interchangeably in the report.

> 2 Failure of handpumps is as high as 67 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa (RWSN 2010) and 33 percent in South Asia (World Bank 2003). Nationally, surveys reveal failure rates of 46 percent in Nigeria (Andres et al. 2018), 42 percent in Nepal (NMIP 2011), 25 percent in India, 34 percent in Peru, 19 percent in Cambodia (Improve International 2012), and so on. Statistics on water point failures by Improve International 2012.

> 3 For impact of commuinty participation on (a) improving targeting (Besley, Pande, and Rao 2005); (b) generating accountability (Aiyar 2010; Baiocchi, Heller, and Silva 2011; O Meally 2013); (c) improving equity (Bardhan et al. 2009); and (d) realizing deliberative democracy (Heller et al. 2007; Sanyal and Rao 2018).

> 4 On the necessary political incentives, governance arrangements, and types of direct citizen action required for participation to be successful (Ahmad et al. 2005; Batley and
arrangements are mostly industry-specific and less influenced by the experience and networks of exporters.

Another related limitation involves gaps in monthly export sequences (e.g. firms exporting once every 3 months, or only twice per year): depending on the product, the sector, or even the agreement between firms, there can be considerable heterogeneity in timing (e.g. the seasonality of produce in agriculture<sup>4</sup> ). It therefore cannot be concluded that an export contract has been terminated simply because there is a gap. Taking this heterogeneity into account, the importance of the sunk costs related to exporting and the presumed depreciation of know-how and business connections in time, the article follows the literature (Sabuhoro, Larue and Gervais 2006) and assumes that an export spell ceases after a gap of more than 12 months (the robustness of this assumption is tested). Subsequent re-entries are treated as new spells<sup>5</sup> .

In general, export transactions tend to receive less attention than imports because they do not generate revenue. Comparisons with international trade statistics are therefore problematic, especially regarding trade with China and the number of trade partners. Lao PDR does not report directly to UN’s Comtrade, and neither does Vietnam, so mirror data from destination countries can be very different. Moreover, improperly encoded re-exports via Thailand can lead to a considerable inflation of trade because so much of Lao’s exports are routed through Bangkok. There may also be significant unreported border trade (e.g. smuggling, traditional trade, illegal logging). While product codes are recorded with accuracy by Customs, errors are sometimes evident in the data with regard to the destination country. Even with care, the twoletter code for destination on customs forms leaves room for confusions between China (CN), Switzerland (CH) and Swaziland (SZ) or between Germany (DE) and Georgia (GE).

In order to allay some of these concerns, the data cleaning process
empirical literature. Studies that investigate the effect of trade policy on productivity often argue that the exogeneity of the trade liberalization shock helps to identify a linkage without worrying too much about the endogeneity of tariffs or other forms of trade policy. I account for such an argument in my theoretical and empirical models, and still obtain tariffs to be endogenous.

I employ a basic political economy of trade protection model and also introduce two different channels of protection that lead to unilateral liberalization once they are removed. The extra channels are meant to capture the perceived benefit of protection to the governments even in the absence of political economy concerns. I first keep the liberalization channel very simple to ensure that my results are not driven by any specific assumptions or complications and then give more structure to it by modeling a learning-by-doing argument. The main result from my theoretical models, simple yet compelling, is that despite an exogenous unilateral trade liberalization shock that is common across sectors, we obtain a differentiated effect across sectoral protection based on productivity. Based on my theory, I predict that more productive sectors receive more protection and that the extent of liberalization is less for sectors that experience a higher productivity increase.

Next, I test and confirm these theoretical results using production, trade, and tariff data at the 4-digit ISIC industry level for Colombia between 1983 and 1998. I keep all of my estimations closely related to my theory and account for all the potential endogeneity problems by using relevant instruments and methodologies.

Finally, I estimate a system of equations and show that by not accounting for the endogeneity of trade policy with respect to productivity, we might underestimate the positive impact of trade reform on productivity. Thus, correcting for the endogeneity bias does not overturn the results in the early empirical literature but makes them somewhat stronger for Colombia which would be interesting to test for different countries as well.

As a natural extension to this paper, it would be useful to carefully model the effect of tariffs on productivity and obtain a more structural simultaneous equations model considering all the interdependencies
For the econometric analysis using quarterly data on deposit and lending rates, similar sample selection criteria were applied (substantially complete availability of the relevant data over 1980-97; no mnicrostates, only one country per currency union). This left 37 developing countries for which more or less complete quarterly data on the movements in bank rates can be analyzed. These countries are: Argentina, Botswana, Brazil, Cameroon, Costa Rica, Cote d'Ivoire, Cyprus, Fiji, the Gambia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Indonesia, Jamaica, Korea, Malawi, Malta, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Rwanda, St. Lucia, Sierra Leone, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Swaziland, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, Uganda, Uruguay, Zambia, Zimbabwe. For Ghana, Mexico and Turkey, deposit rate only was used. Argentina and Brazil were excluded from the econometrics because of their outliers. For analysis requiring both wholesale and bank rates (Table 5) the following countries also had to be excluded for want of data: Botswana, Cameroon, Costa Rica, Cyprus, the Gambia, Guatemala, Honduras, Malta, Nigeria, Rwanda, Uruguay. That left 21 countries in the standard sample used. Data for 19 industrial countries were used as controls: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States.

The shortcomings of the data must be acknowledged. Long series like the ones we are using necessarily involve changing definitions of the underlying assets, as institutions and data-collection methods evolve. Furthermore, there is typically a very wide range of interest rates prevalent in any financial market, depending on size, creditworthiness, maturity and other asselt characteristics. The limited number of series available here will capture this diversity very imperfectly.

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(instrumental variable) for 2005 to 2015 come from the UN Comtrade database. Finally, information on computer use at the household level (technology variable) from 2005 to 2015 comes from the Indonesian National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas).

We formulate the following hypotheses on the relationship between the demand for skills, aggregate labor market indicators, technology adoption at the province level, and exports at the industry level. We expect that changes in a province’s level of technological development will be associated with changes in the structure of employment by skills. Previous literature for developed countries has found that increased use of computers increases the demand for analytical and interpersonal skills and reduces the demand for routine skills (Autor et al., 2003; Autor and Dorn, 2013; Goos et al., 2014). In our analysis we use the share of households with a computer in each province as a proxy for the level of technological development available to firms in that province. This proxy may be signaling the use of other, more advanced technologies, which may in turn lead to different adjustment patterns in the structure of employment by skills (Almeida et al., 2019). In terms of employment indicators, the impact of technology on labor force participation, employment and unemployment rates will depend on the size of the complementarity and substitution effects of technology.

On the other hand, in our econometric analysis we expect an increase in the foreign demand for local products to increase the output level and the demand for all or certain types of skills and to increase employment. This is especially relevant when considering the two sub-periods we use in 3
is financed principally by a Skills Development Levy (SDL), which is the largest source of income for VETA (about 87 percent of total income) (Mwaduma, 2015). Formal sector enterprises with more than four employees contribute a levy of 5 percent of payroll to SDL.</mark><sup>19</sup> <mark>The levy finances public provision of vocational education and training to school leavers by VETA institutions. Not only are the levies high compared to levy rates in other countries, they tend to finance training that is supply-driven and are rarely targeted to the specific skills needed by employers (Dar, Canarajah and Murphy, 2003). This is less likely to be a limitation when levies are used to finance (or reimburse) employer-directed training for its current employees, as in the payroll levy training systems of Malaysia and Singapore. VETA has recently introduced training</mark>

> 17 For instance, enrollments in primary school increased from 4.8 million to 8.4 million over 10 years from 2001 to 2010, while secondary school enrollments almost quadrupled over the 5 years from 2005 to 2010 (Joshi and Gaddis, 2015).

> 18 See the TVETDP of MOEVT (2013) and the Skills Study by the Planning Commission (2015).

> 19 The SDL is collected by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) which then channels 40 percent of SDL proceeds to the VET Fund and 60 percent for government subventions to the Higher Education Student Loans Board (Dachi, 2015). Some entities are exempted from the levy, including government agencies, diplomatic missions, charitable organization, and farm employers. While the SDL contribution was recently reduced from 6 to 5 percent, it remains high in comparison to other regional and international comparators, where training levy rates of 1 to 2 percent are more common.

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262, an increase in real value by 35 percent compared to the original poverty line in 1995. The poverty rate using the new poverty line was 25 percent in 2010. This is based on

> 24 Another notable change in the 2010/11 NLSS was the introduction of 12 Analytical Domains to stratify the population, in contrast to 6 strata previously used in the 1995/96 and 2003/04 NLSS.

> 25 Another adjustment was made to reflect changes in demographic composition of an “average household” to revise the minimum caloric threshold.

> 26 See World Bank (World Bank 2013) and Annexes for more details.

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