rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
# **Technical Appendix**

## **Projection Model Details**

Our M&A growth projections are based on a modified version of the model (1), and is designed to minimize data requirements for forward variables while maximizing the fit of the model to historical data. We use specification ( _B3_ ) in Table 1 as a starting point, and introduce a lagged dependent variable to the regressors. The model is then estimated with the full set of explanatory variables, and insignificant variables are then sequentially dropped. The process is repeated until the most parsimonious specification is reached. Due to data limitations, a smaller panel is used, which includes 53 countries for which full data are available. The country-specific variables are further simplified by classifying host countries two groups, either advanced or emerging.

The projections are based on the two sets of assumptions regarding GDP, GDP per capita, and net IIP detailed in Table 4. These assumptions correspond to a growth scenario where all countries grow at a rate consistent with their potential output, allowing for short-run deviations in the short term (from 2011–12, where we use the World Bank’s forecasts published in the _Global Economic Prospects_ report). Per capita calculations are obtained by supplementing the growthimplied GDP levels with UN population projections. Reserve holdings are assumed to grow as a constant fraction of the net IIP position. A number of variables, such as corporate bonds issues, are assumed to grow at historical rates (for the 1997–2008 period). Other variables, such as economic risk, political risk, and participation in global trade are assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period. The fitted model is generally robust to small deviations in most of the independent variables, but is sensitive to assumptions about reserve holdings growth.

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supports largely dropped off by August 2020 and all groups had low access to external support thereafter.

**Overall, these results suggest that urban households relying on informal enterprises were particularly vulnerable to the COVID-19 crisis and may need further assistance to get back on their feet.** While these households experienced significant income loss, neither public nor private income support was disproportionately directed to them. Enterprise-owning households that were poor, female-headed, and youth-led faced particular difficulties during the recovery.

# **1. Data and Definitions**

**We use data from Waves 1 through 11 of the High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) that were supported and harmonized by the World Bank during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic** . The HFPS is a World Bank data collection initiative that sought to implement phone surveys in a variety of countries.<sup>2</sup> To construct the sample for the HFPS in each country, a random sample was drawn from a previously sampled household survey that provided cell phone numbers.<sup>3</sup> We use the data that were collected across the first year of the HFPS effort, from April 2020 to April 2021.

**We use a subset of 13 African countries that include variables that allow us to identify urban households that own enterprises** . Since the survey questionnaire differs between countries, we are not able to use all the HFPS data collected in SSA. We use only those surveys that include variables to identify urban household enterprises and income changes. We focus on urban households because they were more heavily affected by the crisis, due to their greater reliance on face-to-face economic interactions that were severely curtailed by lockdowns.<sup>4</sup> The countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that meet our criteria are Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe, representing 45 percent of the population of SSA (516 million
an even lower demand for skilled workers. This provides support to our interpretation of the negative

> 45We use detailed trade fl ows for Brazil, China and the world taken from World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) to compute the revealed comparative advantage indexes as detailed in Yeats (1998). Industries with values for those indexes larger than one have revealed comparative advantage.

> 46The results with imported inputs shares, export shares and FDI shares are qualitatively similar to those with the corresponding dummy variables, hence we discuss here only the results with shares.

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diets. WHO (2018)<sup>8</sup> does have a guideline on promoting physical activity in this age group.

# **4. Women of reproductive age (15-49 years)**

For women of reproductive age, various dietary measures have been developed to assess the level of nutrient adequacy (or risk of micronutrient inadequacy) as well as consumption of foods that are associated with lower or higher risk of overweight, obesity and related NCDs.

**Minimum dietary diversity for women** is an indicator designed and validated as a proxy for one dimension of diet quality (micronutrient adequacy) for non-pregnant women 15-49 years of age. MDD-W is calculated based on reported intake of 10 food groups and is defined as consumption of at least five out of these 10 food groups.

There is currently no harmonized database for MDD-W globally, due in part to varying methods of data collection (open and sentinel list-based recalls, national and subnational surveys). The **Food Systems Dashboard** currently hosts MDD-W meta-data for 55 countries plus Palestine (54 LMIC), based on Gallup World Poll data that are not open-access and were collected using a telephone-based interview. In the future, additional MDD-W data are expected to be available from at least 21 nationally representative DHS surveys.

> 6 Indicators for assessing infant and young child feeding practices: definitions and measurement methods ( World Health Organization and UNICEF 2021).

> 7 UNICEF (2022). https://data.unicef.org/topic/nutrition/infant-and-young-child-feeding/

> 8 WHO (2018). Guideline: implementing effective actions for improving adolescent nutrition. Geneva: World Health Organization. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/260297

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_“... The first piece is located in Bagua Industry Park. It is a three-floor factory with a construction area of 1,593 square meters. The tenure is from 1985 to 2015. Currently it is leased out with an annual rent of 600,000 RMB... The second piece is controlled by our subsidiary Sege Baohua. It is in Huaqiangbei Industry Park. The total area is 2,213 square meters with a construction area of 10,509 square meters. The tenure is from 1982 to 2012. Currently it is leased out with an annual rent of 25 million RMB...”_ The assumption that titling for firms should always be associated with a sharp fluctuation in their share prices need not be satisfied: the market might lack relevant landholding information of these firms, or the impact of titling could be viewed as trivial. To ensure that we fully capture titling firms, we also used two other methods. First, we checked all post-2009 annual reports of listed companies that either were headquartered in Shenzhen or had branches located in Shenzhen, in search of any mentioning of constructions related to the land titling program. We further explore the name lists of listed firms whose construction applications on land titling were approved by the government. We find another 26 firms that mentioned their participation in the land titling program. The total number of treatment firms is thus 43. As a comparison, the number of listed firms headquartered in Shenzhen when the titling program was officially carried out in 2012 was 70.

Our empirical analysis starts with all domestically listed companies except those in the financial industry in light of their difference in business nature. We obtain financial data, including stock prices and information from financial statements, from the China Securities Market and Accounting Research (CSMAR) database, the most comprehensive database of its type that contains all trading prices and financial statement data for listed firms trading on both the Shanghai and the Shenzhen exchanges. We also rely on land price in Shenzhen to estimate the value of titling
. Ability reported in quintiles of standardized Saber 11 scores; quintile 1 is the lowest.

_Fact 2: Dropout rates are high, particularly for low-ability students in year 1._

> 4To exemplify, consider a student who accumulates 16, 35, 42, 50, and 60 classes by the end of years 1 through 5 respectively. This amounts to 80 (=16/20), 88 (=35/40), 70, 62.5, and 60 percent of the corresponding on-track requirements. Thus, the student falls in tiers 3, 2, 3, 4, and 4 in years 1 through 5 respectively.

> 5For comparison, in the US the enrollment rate of individuals ages 16-24 who finished high school in 2005 and started college right away (rather than within five years) is 44.6% (Source: Digest of Education Statistics).

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|72‐83 Metals|33|510|543|
|---|---|---|---|
|84‐85 Mach/Electronics|360|397|757|
|86‐89 Transport|56|76|132|
|90‐97 Miscellaneous|167|213|380|
|98‐99 Special|0|1|1|
|TOTAL|1236|3661|4897|

Source: Authors’ calculations based on Athukorala (2010) and Sturgeon and Memedovic (2011) Note: These product codes were conducted using trade data at the HS1988/92 six‐digit level of classification.

Entering a sector at one position in the chain may not require the same capability bundle as another position in the chain. For this reason, we further divide certain sectors into final and intermediate stages. While this does not account for all the steps in a value chain, it does account for some of the most important differences. Table 3 provides a breakdown of final products and intermediate products<sup>9</sup> within each of the main GVC sectors. Four sectors with a substantial number of both final and intermediate GVC products – transport, footwear, machinery and miscellaneous manufactures – are divided into final and intermediate sub‐sectors in the following pages. Since wood and chemicals comprise only one product and make up only 0.3 percent of the value of global GVC trade, we exclude them from subsequent analysis.

**Table 3: Number of Products by Position in Value Chain within GVC Sectors**<sup>**10**</sup>

|**Sector**|**Total Number of**<br>**GVC Products**|**Final Products**|**Intermediate**<br>**Products**|
|---|---|---|---|
|39‐40 Plastic/
on the first two indicators dealing with HTC: (i) the number of clients tested for HIV at the HTC center, and (ii) the number of couples/partners tested at the health facility.

Facilities submit monthly reports and quarterly requests for payment to the district P4P steering committee, which is responsible for verifying the data and authorizing payment. Each committee verifies reports by sending auditors to facilities on unannounced random days each quarter. The auditors verify the data reported are the same as the data recorded in facility records. In addition, during the 2006-2008 period the Ministry of Health financed one patient tracking survey to conduct face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 patients to verify the 5
As in our model, the 2006 entry cohort starts to graduate in 2010. In 2006, the initial share of college graduates in the workforce equals 27 percent.<sup>30</sup> Universal free college raises this share for a particular cohort by 12 pp, to a long-run value of 39 percent (panel a). In the short-run the college premium falls relatively little (panel b) because the increase in college graduates from the first few cohorts is small relative to the stock of college-educated workers, which includes individuals from 35 to 40 cohorts. Over time, the continuous inflow of a greater number of college graduates produces a larger college premium impact—but still small, given our estimated _ω_ , and unlikely to dissuade many high school graduates from college enrollment. As a robustness check, panel b depicts the implied college premium path for several _ω_ estimates for developed economies.<sup>31</sup> The college premium declines more for these values, yet even the greatest decline -down to 1.70- still leaves the economy with a substantial college premium, comparable to that in the U.S. Skill-biased technical change, of course, would lead to an even smaller decline for any value of _ω_ .

In sum, both the short- and long-run college premium decline induced by free college would likely be small in Colombia. As a result, abstracting away from the general equilibrium implications of free college is not likely to bias our predictions substantially. College, thus, would remain a worthy investment even if free college produced more college graduates.<sup>32</sup>

# **9 Conclusions**

In this paper we have developed and estimated a dynamic model of college enrollment, performance, and graduation. A central piece of the model, student effort, has a direct effect on the completion of classes and an indirect effect mitigating risks on class completion or college persistence. We have estimated the model using rich administrative data from Colombia. According to our
the number of medium and large-size cities. Moreover, other regions, mainly in the South, underwent a structural transformation of their economies toward services sectors such as administrative services, commerce, and tourism. While cities in the North are more economically diversified, those in the South rely considerably on the services sector. This structural change in the regions has generated different motivations for internal migration, including the expectation of an increase in household welfare resulting from better employment opportunities.

**The evidence indicates that a more complex urban area mainly drives mobility within metropolitan areas.** During the period 1995-2000, 65 percent of the internal migration was across cities and metropolitan areas. Between 2005 and 2010, this percentage increased to 68 percent (Pérez and Santos, 2013). Pérez and Santos (2013) also showed that some metropolitan areas have positive net migration balances, while others have negative net balances. For example, Mexico City metropolitan area had a negative net migration balance in the period 2005-2010, as well as all the cities in the Veracruz state and some consolidated touristic cities such as Acapulco. Some states have traditionally exported labor force (as Oaxaca). All the metropolitan areas in the frontier with the United States displayed positive net balances in the period 1995-2000. However, only one (Reynosa – Rio Bravo) showed a positive net balance in internal migration during the period 2005-2010.

**Although internal migration in Mexico at the primary geographic level is not as high as in the SubSaharan Africa region, it is an important phenomenon** . According to the Census 2010, around 3.6 percent of the population migrated internally across states during 2005-2010. Bernard et al. (2018) conducted a study comparing internal migration rates across countries and levels of educational attainment. They

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activity: Evidence from establishment-level data. Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), pp.000-000.

- Glaeser, E. L., and J. D. Gottlieb. 2008. “The Economics of Place-Making Policies.” NBER Working Paper w14373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

- Holmes, T.J., 1998. The effect of state policies on the location of manufacturing: Evidence from state borders. Journal of political Economy, 106(4), pp.667-705.

- Hsieh, C.T. and Klenow, P.J., 2009. Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India. The Quarterly journal of economics, 124(4), pp.1403-1448.

- Jofre-Monseny, J. and Sole ́-Olle ́, A. 2012. “Which communities should be afraid of mobility? The effects of agglomeration economies on the sensitivity of employment location to local taxes.” Regional Science and Urban Economics, vol. 42, pp. 257–68.

- Kline, P., and E. Moretti. 2014a. “Local economic development, agglomeration economies, and the big push: 100 years of evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authority.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(1), pp.275-331.

- ______. 2014b. “People, Places, and Public Policy: Some Simple Welfare Economics of Local Economic Development Programs.” Annual Review of Economics 6 (1): 629–62.

- Li, Y., M. Rama, V. Galdo and M. F. Pinto. 2015. “A Spatial Database for South Asia.” Unpublished manuscript, World Bank, Washington, DC.

- Lu, Y., Wang, J. and Zhu, L., 2019. Place-Based Policies, Creation, and Agglomeration Economies: Evidence from China's Economic Zone Program. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11(3), pp.325-60.

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Figure 24. Distribution of internal migrant and non-migrant women and men by degree of urbanization <!-- Start of picture text --> Less than 2,500 people From 2,500 to 14,999 people From 15,000 to 49,999 people<br>From 50,000 to 99,999 people 100,000 and more people<br>100<br>80<br>48.4 48.8<br>58.2 58.0<br>60<br>4.8 4.9<br>40 4.2 10.8 4.0 10.9<br>12.8 15.0 12.8 15.0<br>20 13.4 13.5<br>21.0 20.4<br>11.4 11.7<br>0<br>Men who migrated Men who did not Women who migrated Women who did not<br>migrate migrate<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Own estimates based on Population and Housing Census 2020.

# 5. Methodology

**This section describes the methodologies used to analyze the determinants of internal mobility in Mexico and the earning gains from the migration decision for both women and men.** The study focuses on identifying both macroeconomic push and pull factors influencing internal mobility flows and individual factors affecting the propensity to migrate. Push and pull factors at the aggregate level are estimated using a gravity-type model, while the propensity to migrate is estimated using a discrete choice model that accounts for different migration reasons. Earning gains from internal migration are measured using a double selection model that simultaneously accounts for the migration and employment decisions.

## 5.1. Gravity model

**Gravity models have been widely used in the internal migration literature.** Gravity models allow understanding the characteristics of origin and destination places that influence (encourage or discourage) migration flows at the aggregate level
Policy Research Working Paper 9239

# **Abstract**

This paper estimates the survival time of nearly 7,000 firms in a dozen high-income and middle-income countries in a scenario of extreme economic distress, using the World Bank’s Enterprises Surveys. Under the assumption that firms have no incoming revenues and cover only fixed costs, the median survival time across industries ranges within 8 to 19 weeks, while on average firms have liquidity to survive between 12 and 38 weeks. Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction is not corroborated in the data, as potential exit is not predicated on the size of firms, their age, or their productivity.

This paper is a product of the Global Indicators Group, Development Economics Vice-Presidency. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at rramalho@ifc.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
ECB), as well as via EU resolutions for the broader European Union. Security measures are already progressing at the national level to facilitate the integration of payment systems, including the move towards chip-based credit and debit cards (instead of magnetic strips), but there is also a need for improved interoperability between national payment infrastructures.<sup>92</sup> “E-payment” systems are also advancing, but at a slow pace.

A related issue is the settlement of payments for new instruments that might arise as part of reforms to the international monetary system. For example, if the IMF were to issue tradable securities denominated in SDRs or in some new global currency unit, then until deep and liquid markets are established for those securities, there may be a need for a market maker role. The IMF would be the likely candidate. Another option on the table—following the ad hoc swap arrangements between central banks during the global crisis – is to establish a more permanent role for transacting swap arrangements. There could be a role either for the IMF or the BIS in establishing such a facility. In addition, if a new international currency were to be created, then there would be a role for the BIS or IMF to facilitate payment between central banks for a new currency to be used in international transactions.93 Payment system integration might be a natural consequence of a new international currency – whether it be a substitute or complement to existing national currencies. The experience of the Euro might be useful in understanding how that process might work.

> 90 BIS Statement of Account for June 2011.

> 91 The 58 percent figure is a share of a reduced base as compared to BIS survey reports of total foreign currency trading activity.  The reduced base eliminates transactions that do not present any settlement risk, so that there would be no need for a specialized settlement counterparty.  See “CLS market share,” February 2011 available at www.clsb.com.

> 92 See European Central Bank (2010).
data on total exports since the survey does not distinguish between direct and indirect exports.<sup>31</sup> In Table 3 Panel B, summary statistics are shown for the different measures of absorptive capacity and international economic activities.

> 28The implicit assumption made in constructing this measure is that all workers of a given type have exactly the average level of education of that worker type.

> 29Wage bill shares for this education-based measure of skills are not available for Brazil.

> 30R&D and the introduction of new product lines can be viewed as, respectively, an input into and an output from a knowledge production function (see Chennells and Van Reenen, 1999).

> 31However, the empirical fi ndings for Brazil are very similar when considering total exports.

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connected to piped water. Access to improved water in urban areas—where most of the better-off population lives—is 99 percent versus 67 percent in poorer rural areas (figure 9a), according to the 2005 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The main driver of the inequity is that piped-water service is more affordable in the more densely populated urban areas than it is in rural areas. The limited reach of piped water into rural areas makes the population largely reliant on springs and wells. Matters are made worse by the fact that more than two-thirds of these groundwater sources are unprotected, raising waterquality risks.

Zimbabwe‘s sanitation sector has deteriorated over time, causing an increase in reliance on open defecation and a sharp decline in access to improved latrines. Reliance on open defecation increased from 27 to 29 percent between 1999 and 2005 (table 7), implying that, on average, 0.5 percent of the population was losing access to other forms of sanitation each year. Strikingly, access to flush toilets remained relatively steady, while access to improved latrines dropped from 25 to 14 percent between 1999 and 2005, exposing more people to unsafe sanitation options.

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