rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
rule would effectively raise Samurdhi benefits by five times for eligible households, but assume that the benefits will be perfectly targeted towards the poorest 20% of the population.<sup>13</sup> Bottom 20% is chosen as the target population since about 20% of the population currently receives Samurdhi benefits. The PMT score cutoff of 25% is used to identify approximately the bottom 20% households based on Table 3. Scenario 3 in Table 5 is budget neutral compared to Scenario 1 since the total Samurdhi benefits subtracted in Scenario 2 are simply re‐distributed among eligible households according to their PMT score. The consumption values and Samurdhi payments in all of the scenarios are conducted at the per capita level in order to make the scenarios comparable.

Table 5: Comparison between different transfer schemes

|Scenarios|Poverty<br>Headcount index<br>α=0|Poverty<br>Gap Index<br>α=1|Poverty<br>Severity Index<br>α=2|
|---|---|---|---|
|1. Baseline scenario (Per capita consumption)||||
|a. National Poverty Line|4.08%|0.006|0.002|
|b. $3.20 International Poverty Line|9.73%|0.018|0.005|
|c. $5.50 International Poverty Line|39.67%|0.113|0.044|
|2. Per capita consumption minus Samurdhi payment||||
|a. National Poverty Line|4.87%|0.009|0.003|
|b. $3.20 International Poverty Line|10.92%|0.022|0.007|
|c. $5.50 International Poverty Line|40.58%|0.121|0.050|
|3. Household consumption minus Samurdhi payment plus||
services, health conditions (reasons for hospitalization and health problems that did not result in hospitalization), use of medicines and health services, and consumption expenditures.

Consumption expenditures represent the wealth of individuals. It is the monetary value of goods (including durable goods) and services and includes (1) purchased goods and services, (2) gifts, and (3) self-consumption. Health expenditures in the LSMS included only purchased goods and services. Health expenditure data were available for (1) outpatient drugs (referred to as medicines in the remainder of this paper), (2) ambulatory care, (3) hospitalizations, and (4) other health services and tools. For outpatient care expenditures, data were available for visits to general practitioners, specialists, dentists, and traditional healers as well as for outpatient medical examinations and care. For hospitalization expenditures, there was no disaggregation. For other health services and tools, data were available on corrective lenses, therapeutic and orthopedic devices, vaccinations, circumcisions, annual check-ups, and contraceptives. Health expenditures were available at the individual level except for contraceptives, which were at the household level. Total consumption expenditures were also available at the household level. We therefore estimated contraceptive expenditures and total <mark>consumption e</mark> xpenditures for each individual by dividing contraceptive expenditures and total consumption expenditures at the household level by household size. We defined socioeconomic quintiles using the individual-level total consumption expenditures we calculated.

# **Estimation of total health expenditures and their drivers**

We accounted for annual THE by including all health-related data that were available in the LSMS;<sup>[9]</sup> that is, data on drugs, ambulatory care, hospitalizations, and other health services and tools. For drugs and ambulatory care, the expenditure data collection covered the three months prior to the survey. We therefore multiplied these expenditures by four to obtain annual estimates. For hospitalizations, only the last health problem in the 12 months prior to the survey
**Figure 4. Tajikistan: Direction of Exports, 1992-2010**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 1% 1992 1% 1% 1997<br>1%<br>4%<br>4%<br>9% 21%<br>34%<br>14%<br>50%<br>4%<br>3%<br>10% 5% 36%<br>2%<br>1% 1% 0% 2010 CIS<br>EU-15+<br>8%<br>Southeast Europe<br>5%<br>EU-8<br>Middle East and North Africa<br>14%<br>Central Asia<br>East Asia<br>Rest of the World<br>70%<br>South Caucasus<br>North America<br>South Asia<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: COMTRADE data and author’s calculation.

A closer look at 2010 data indicates that the top-10 countries receiving Tajik exports were respectively Russia, EU15, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Poland, China, Ukraine, Turkey, Norway and Turkmenistan. In 2007, before the global crisis hit, the top-ten importers of Tajik goods were Russia, Romania, Poland, EU15, Bulgaria, China, Norway, Mongolia, Slovenia and Belarus. The landlocked situation of Tajikistan seems to be favoring trade with traditional Soviet partners and regional powers such as the EU and China. This geographical dimension should be kept in mind when designing an export-led growth strategy for Tajikistan.

# **Tajikistan, an economy that may benefit from an export-led growth strategy**

As long as remittance inflows are stable, Tajikistan can continue enjoying higher growth rates on the account of strong domestic consumption. But the experience of developing countries that have grown sustainably over decades teaches us that higher investments and export expansion to tap global demand are essential ingredients (
leading to higher wages, and Furtado and Theodoropoulos (2010) find that intermarriage in the U.S. increases the probability of immigrant employment which they attribute to better access to job networks. Marriage can also provide a faster pathway to naturalization, which can benefit migrants in terms of access to public sector jobs, signal commitment to stay in the host country, and reduce discrimination (Govind, 2021).

The result is that many immigrants marry natives from the country they move to, possibly after dissolving a marital union that predated migration. Meng and Gregory (2005) find that 32 percent of married immigrants in Australia in 1996 are intermarried, with this rising to 47 percent of those who arrived in Australia aged 19 or lower. Haandrikman (2014) notes that the partner market for Swedes has expanded considerably with EU expansion and increased diversity of the migrant population, so that the share of native Swedes in binational marriages doubled from 8 percent in 1991 to 16 percent in 2008. Govind (2021) states that marriage between a French person and a foreigner accounts for 13 percent of all marriages in France. Lichter et al. (2015) use the 2008-2012 American Community Survey to document that 37 percent of immigrant men who married in the U.S. in the past year got married to a U.S. native. This rate of intermarriage differs substantially across immigrant nationalities, with Bohra-Mishra and Massey (2015) finding it highest for immigrants from Europe and Central Asia.

# **3.5 Migration can also change other members of the family, such as children and other household members**

In addition to changing the decision of whether, when, and who to marry, migration can also change decisions about having children. This can occur through multiple channels: through an income effect, a spousal absence effect, and through changes in fertility norms and contraceptive knowledge (Hildebrandt and McKenzie, 2005). This can change the number and timing of childbirths. Moreover, to the extent that migration changes
POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 2285

# **Summary findings**

Little empirical research has been done on monitoring and enforcement issues in environmental economics, especially to analyze the impact of monitoring and enforcement on polluters' environmental performance. No studies have been done in developing economics.

Dasgupta, Laplante, Mamingi, and Wang explore the impact of inspections, and the potential impact of pollution charges and citizens' complaints, on the environmental performance of polluters in China.

Their analysis of plant-level data from the city of Zhenjiang shows that: Inspections have a statistically significant impact on firms' environmental performance.

Pollution charges do Ilot have **a** statistically - significant effect oll firms' performance although the lack of variation in pollution charges in Zlhenjiang precludes effectively capturing their impact.

Complaints have a significant impact on inspections and therefore on pAllutinn control.

Currently available data do not allow analysis of whether the cost oi- addirional inspections is justified, but it is reasonable to speculate that additional inspections would improve social welfare in Zhenjiang and that information and ecucation campaigns are probably a good way to encourage citizen complaints.

- This paper -a product of Infrastructure and Environment, Development Research Group is part of a larger effort in the group to study environmental regulation in developing countries. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project "Pollution Control in China: The Role and Impact of inspection and Complaints" (RPO 682-44). Copies of this paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Yasmin D'Souza, room MC2-622, telephone 202-473-1449, fax 202-522-3230, email address ydsouza@vxworldbank.org. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at wwv.worldbank.org/researchI workingpapers. The authors may be contacted at sdasguptaCkworldbank.org, blaplantec@?worldbank.org, or hwangl(cworldbank.org. February 2000. (25 pages)

_The Policy Research WI'orking Paper Series disseminates the findiings of
and which she can mitigate through effort. We estimate the model with unique administrative data on the universe of higher education students in Colombia—a country highly representative of Latin America—and use the parameter estimates to simulate free college programs which differ in eligibility requirements. We study whether free college affects students’ risk and effort, and perform a simple cost-benefit analysis of free college.

Understanding the trade-offs in free college is critical, particularly in developing economies. In Latin America, higher education enrollment rates rose from 23 to 52 percent between 2000 and 2017. Since only 14 percent of the working age population has completed higher education, Mincerian returns are high—104 percent on average relative to a high school diploma (Ferreyra et al 2017). Although such high returns should attract many individuals to higher education, liquidity constraints severely limit access, as countries subsidize public but not private higher education and often lack credit markets. College subsidies are therefore a promising avenue to broader access. While students in several of these countries have recently taken to the streets in demand of full subsidies, the feasibility of free college has been called into question by these countries’ low growth and tight fiscal constraints in recent years—conditions, of course, that have been seriously aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Even if free college were implemented, the cross-country evidence presented above suggests that it might not raise the stock of skilled human capital. One possible explanation is that free college might attract academically weak students, yet another is that it might discourage student effort. Free college raises consumption during college, therefore enhancing the attractiveness of being a college student (the “college experience”) and potentially unleashing three effects on effort. First is the _loss-of-urgency effect_ , whereby the student wishes to enjoy the enhanced college experience and loses the urgency to graduate. Second is the _substitution effect_ , whereby the enhanced consumption compensates for greater effort. Third is the _risk effect_ , as the effort changes induced by the other two effects affect not only current but also future performance
focus on works that have used rigorous empirical approaches and micro-data sets,<sup>14</sup> with special emphasis on methodologies that exploit treatment and control groups to solve the unobserved contrafactual problem. The vast majority of papers to date that evaluated policies of the extension of the school day have exploited quasi-experimental methodologies based on school-level data similar to what we exploit in this report.

Many papers to date have analyzed the relation between full-time schooling and cognitive outcomes,<sup>15</sup> but conclusions are mixed. Although most papers found positive effects of extending the school day on student scores, others found no impact of such educational policies.

De Cicca (2007) analyzed full-day kindergartens in the United States. The paper estimated the effect of full-time schooling on standardized test scores in mathematics and reading and found a positive impact on student achievement in both subjects. In the Netherlands, Meyer and Van Klaveren (2013) evaluated the impact of a full-time schooling program for children aged 8 to 12 years old and found no significant effects on student learning. The lack of results could, however, be linked to the small duration of the program (11 weeks), which may have been insufficient to produce the desired performance improvement.

For Latin America, results vary widely mainly depending on the country and on the full-time schooling program analyzed. Holland _,_ Alfaro, and Evans (2015) summarize the findings of evaluation studies of full-time schooling in Latin America. All studies available and reviewed here exploit quasi-experimental methods, either propensity score matching (Cerdan-Infantes and Vermeersch 2007; Llach, Adrogué, and Gigaglia 2009; Mendes 2011; Oliveira 2010) or a differences-in-differences approach (Arzola 2010; Bellei 2009; Pereira 2010). A smaller number of studies, like ours, combined both a differences-in-differences approach and a propensity score matching estimator (see De Aquino and Kassouf 2011; Marín 2006; Xerxenevsky 2012).

In Chile, for instance, most studies found positive impacts of the Chilean program of extension of the school
15 CARs in emerging economies. Considering the direct impact of increased bank CARs and the additional institutional feature that emerging economies' banks would need to tap less developed financial markets to raise the needed capital, the new Basel proposal could considerably worsen the availability and cost of credit to these countries' private sector.

In turn, even a temporary worsening in their access to bank credit could have a negative impact on corporate sectors in emerging economies-e.g. amplifying corporate bankruptcies and holding corporate production constrained below potential. This would provoke a depletion of orgaiiizational capacity in emerging economies' corporate sectors with potential long-lasting (letrimental consequences for these economies' recovery Greenwald and Stiglitz (1993).

# 7. **Conclusions**

In this paper historical data on sovereigns and individual borrowers ratings are used to examine what would be the effect on less developed countries of the introduction of a link between bank Capital Asset Requirements and external ratings, as contemplated in the new Basel proposal.

We find that the Base.l proposal would increase the volatility of capital needs of banks in NHICs versus high-income countries' banks. In fact, bank and corporate ratings in NHICs appear to be strongly related and in an asymmetric way to changes in sovereign ratings. A sovereign downgrading would, for instance, imply larger changes in capital allocations than an upgrading and would call for larger capital requirements at the very time in which access to capital markets is more difficult. In addition, the lack of a widespread use of ratings for banks and corporations in NHICs would not provide an effective incentive to adopt nmore sound risk assessments on the part of banks. In fact, while good banks in HICs would see their capital requirements reduced as a consequence of a prudent lending behavior, their peers in NHICs would not draw an equivalent benefit from an analogous attitude.

As a result of these empirical findings, especially in the case of NHICs, we encourage the adoption of an integrated approach, in which the use of rating agencies' assessments for the definition of capital requirements is
tegrated in Tajik labor markets relative to their previous situation in Afghanistan. This is a typical characteristic of forcibly displaced populations as it naturally take time for them to recover their livelihood. Moreover, females have lower labor market participation rates, hours worked, and wages relative to men. We also see that student enrollment for individuals of schooling age is dramatically lower in Tajikistan relative to Afghanistan. Finally, not surprisingly, household size for refugees is smaller in Tajikistan, which likely originates from family separation due to forced displacement from Afghanistan.

**_Outcome variables._** Using the census data, we construct five index variables for each of the outcomes of interest: refugee integration, educational attainment, mental health, income and consumption, and labor market outcomes. Indexes for dichotomous variables were constructed as the average of all outcomes. Indexes that include continuous variables were constructed standardizing each variable, averaging all variables, and stanthe once The to construct indexes was dardizing average again. methodology adopted from Kling, Liebman and Katz (2007). Appendix B.A describes in detail all the variables included in each of the indexes. In sum, each of the indexes comprises the following:

_Integration index:_ Includes four variables that measure the feelings of belonging of refugees in Tajikistan. These are measured using a Likert scale. It also includes two additional variables that record the number of local and refugee friends that refugees have in Tajikistan. Because some variables are continuous the index is constructed following the methodology outlined in Kling, Liebman and Katz (2007).

_Educational attainment index:_ is calculated as the of four dichotomous variables average including being literate, having some formal education, completing primary, and completing secondary.

_Mental health index:_ averages four dichotomous variables that take the value of one if the individual feels little interest in doing things, had sleeping troubles, had poor appetite or over eating, had suicidal thoughts, or received mental health assistance.

16
The first major point of consideration in the bilateral asymmetry measure is that it involves a comparison between trade values recorded under different valuation methods. That is, bilateral asymmetry measures compare the Free on Board (FOB) valuation of exports and the Cost Insurance and Freight (CIF) valuation of the equivalent import value. While it is preferable to simply take the FOB valuation for import, they are rarely available. This implies that bilateral asymmetry measures will indicate import overreporting in cases where import records simply include CIF adjustments. Several approaches to account for differences in the valuation of recorded values have been proposed. In the BACI database (Gaulie & Zignago, 2010), the CIF rate is estimated (and removed) via a gravity-type model before discrepancies are further resolved.

Alternatively, the influence of the CIF rate can be factored in by accounting for product composition (Farhad et al., 2023), which will inevitably contain the magnitude of this ratio. Finally, the inclusion of the CIF rate in the interpretation of bilateral asymmetry measures has been implemented using simple thresholding, with many flagging transactions whose CIF rate exceeds the 10% threshold.

However, the variability of the CIF rate across partners and products suggests that this threshold is a useful, yet rough estimate. This facilitates the need for bilateral asymmetry measures that are more penalizing toward discrepancies that are least likely to be explained by logistic factors, such as differences in valuation. In addition, many proposed bilateral asymmetry measures can indicate the magnitude of the discrepancy, but not its direction. In other words, without additional information, these measures alone cannot indicate whether the discrepancy was due to an over or under reported import value. Considering the differences in valuation outlined earlier, the direction of the discrepancy can help isolate discrepancies that go beyond CIF adjustments.

Measures of bilateral asymmetry, however, can only quantify the level of divergence of reported trade values on a single bilateral transaction. To capture reporters’ reliability, there is a clear need to summarize the distribution of bilateral asymmetries across
73|75|77|80|80|81|
|VIII|4|41|47|50|51|56|61|62|63|64|66|67|73|72|72|
|IX|8|73|76|81|85|84|82|84|85|84|85|86|88|89|88|
|X|40|79|80|84|84|86|86|87|87|88|88|89|92|92|92|
|XI|9|64|65|70|77|71|79|81|79|83|88|87|76|75|76|
|XII|11|33|48|53|62|45|49|49|59|61|64|62|60|64|61|
|RM|19|24|28|37|41|44|50|49|51|57|60|62|69|70|70|
|Average|13|49|53|58|62|61|64|65|68|70|72|74|76|76|76|

_Note:_ The table includes the proportions of primary schools in each of Chile’s administrative regions that had implemented the FDS program in at least one of its grade levels. RM=Santiago metropolitan region.

_Source:_ Authors’ estimates using Ministry of Education FSD database.

30
Policy Research Working Paper 5758

# **Abstract**

Using the Agricultural Census 2003 and the Rice Household Survey 2008 for Indonesia, this paper analyzes the distribution of benefits from fertilizer subsidies and their impact on rice production. The findings suggest that most farmers benefit from fertilizer subsidies; however, the 40 percent largest farmers capture up to 60 percent of the subsidy. The regressive nature of the fertilizer subsidies is in line with research carried out in other countries, the result of larger farms using a larger volume of fertilizer. This paper confirms that fertilizer used in adequate quantities has a positive and significant impact on rice yields, but it also provides evidence that over-using fertilizer has an adverse impact on yields (an inverted U-curve relationship).

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Division, East Asia and Pacific Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank. org. The author may be contacted at eblancoarmas@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team