rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
# **Figure 4. GDP Per Capita for Commodity Exporters (1950=1)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> (a) LatAm Countries (b) LatAm vs Comparator Countries<br>1.6 1.30<br>1.20<br>1.4<br>1.10<br>1.2 1.00<br>0.90<br>1<br>0.80<br>0.8 0.70<br>0.60<br>0.6<br>0.50<br>0.4 0.40<br>Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Uruguay Venezuela LatAm specialized LatAm diversified LatAm specialized LatAm diversified World diversified World specialized<br>1 9501 95 1195 21 95 3195 41 95 5195 6195 71 95 819591 96 019611962196319641 96519661 967196819691 97 019711 97 21 9731 97 41 97 51 97 61 97 71 97 81 97 919801 98 119821 98 31984198519861987198819891990199119921 99 319941 99 51 9961 99 71 99 81 99 92 00 0 19501952195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000<br><!-- End of picture text --> Notes: LatAm specialized is the simple average of Argentina, Chile, Peru, Uruguay and the República Bolivariana de Venezuela. LatAm diversified is the simple average of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. World specialized commodity exporters include New Zealand, South Africa and an average of eight oil exporters (Algeria, Bahrain, Cameroon, Gabon, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar and United Arab Emirates). World diversified commodity exporters include Australia and Canada _._ Countries’ per capita GDPs are divided by the GDP of the US. _Source: Maddison Project._
representative of the population at the national and sub-national level using a two-stage stratified sampling design <mark>with census enumeration areas (EAs) as primary sampling units and households as secondary sampling units.</mark> Households are then tracked through time, except for Mali which only tracks enumeration areas (EAs). Each survey wave covers an agricultural production cycle or season.

## B. EM-DAT aggregate data

We compare survey estimates to country-level data from is the Emergency Event Database (EM-DAT). EMDAT is the preeminent public database taking stock of shocks on a global scale and widely used for research and to inform policy<sup>52</sup> . Both natural (e.g., geophysical, meteorological) and technological (e.g., industrial accidents) events are recorded, along with information on disaster damages valued in 2022 USD. The EM-DAT compiles information from a broad range of sources including insurance companies, international organizations, press agencies and governmental agencies. Disasters are recorded if they provoke 10 or more deaths, affect 100 or more people (injured/ homeless/ in need of immediate assistance) or are accompanied by an official declaration of emergency or appeal for international assistance.<sup>29</sup>

## C. Variable construction

## _Valuation of crop production_

Plot-level crop production was calculated using survey variables which were collected after the harvest in each season and country. Farmers report harvest quantities for each seasonal crop grown on each plot.

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We report the short-term correlations between quarterly GDP growth and employment growth in South Asia in Table 3. The results suggest that seasonal variation in economic growth affects the composition of employment. With higher seasonal growth, self-employment decreases while employment in other types of jobs increases. But these changes net out and we do not find evidence of an overall increase in employment with economic growth if the latter is not seasonally adjusted. Conversely, seasonally-adjusted economic growth has no impact on the composition of employment, but it has an impact on overall job creation. With each additional annualized percentage point of seasonally adjusted quarterly growth, employment increases by 0.16 percent.

More distant points are needed to assess how much employment is created per percentage point of economic growth in the longer term. We follow a four-step procedure to this effect. First, we compute comparable employment rates for all observations in our dataset. Second, we apply these employment rates to consistent estimates of the working-age population, obtained from readily-available demographic series, to obtain employment levels. The advantage of using demographic series is that they are comparable over time. Third, we compute percentage changes in the resulting employment for all the pairs of observations available for each country. And fourth, all the percentage changes in employment levels are divided by the percentage change in GDP over the corresponding period.

**Table 3.** Correlations of quarterly changes in employment rates and GDP growth.

|**South Asia**|**Correlation coefficient**|
|---|---|
|total employment|-0.03<br>(0.7206)|
|Between non-seasonally adjusted GDP and<br>self-employment|-0.30***<br>(0.0006)|
|rest|0.24***<br>(0.0078)|
|total employment|0.16*<br>(0.0794)|
|Between seasonally adjusted GDP and<br>self-employment|
school supply on child’s educational attainment. Checchi, Ichino, and Rustichini (1999) and Davies, Zhang, and Zeng (2005) studied the effect of public versus private educational systems on mobility. Schütz, Ursprung, and Wößmann (2008) explored the impact of a number of educational policies on an index of equality of educational opportunity across countries. Checchi and Flabbi (2013) studied the effect of secondary schooling tracking systems on mobility. This paper makes two contributions to this literature. First, it extends the analysis in Behrman and Wolfe (1987) by examining the impact of the expansion of the local supply of public schools on educational mobility. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this question has not been studied before. This policy is of primary relevance to the experiences of developing countries where public schooling was the only realistic means to eradicate illiteracy among the masses. Second, while previous mobility studies in the developing world examined outcomes for children who are co-resident with their parents, in order to be able to make use of standard surveys that lack longitudinal or retrospective data on parental characteristics, the JLPMS allows improving on these studies by including information on parental characteristics of all adults in the sample.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section II provides a background on the evolution of educational attainment and the expansion of public schooling in Jordan. Section III describes the conceptual framework that motivates the empirical analysis. Section IV includes a description of the data. Section V characterizes the trend across cohorts of intergenerational educational persistence in Jordan. Section VI describes the identification strategy. Section VII presents the findings with regard to the effect of increasing the local supply of public schools on intergenerational educational mobility. The robustness checks are discussed in section VIII. Finally, section IX concludes.

7
economic impacts, if they exist, may be concentrated on those workers with high skills. In fact, our empirical finding is consistent with this conjecture. To the extent that the future resource exploration involves capital-intensive development, our findings indicate possibly limited roles of offshore oil development on poverty reduction.

Finally, we evaluate the effects of oil discovery at the household and individual level. We apply a difference-in-differences approach to a newly constructed household income data combined with location information of households to analyze the impact of oil discovery on households’ income. This approach allows us to address individual-level impacts of offshore oil discovery, which tend to be masked in most previous studies based on municipality, county or province level data.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 provides a brief overview of oil in Ghana, Section 3 discusses related theories and channels through which natural resources affect the local economy, Section 4 describes the dataset used for analysis, summary statistics, empirical strategy and a discussion on the validity of the identification strategy. Section 5 reports empirical results, Section 6 discusses alternative mechanisms, and Section 7 concludes.

# **2. An Overview of Oil in Ghana**

Oil exploration in Ghana began in the 19<sup>th</sup> century. The first onshore oil was discovered and drilled in 1896. Following this discovery, exploration activities continued between 1957 and 1966. Offshore oil is more recent, with discovery and drilling taking place in the 1970’s.<sup>3</sup> By 1983, the country had 54 well counts of both onshore and offshore oil, yet production and commercialization were not on a large scale. Crude oil was discovered in the Western region 2007, which is the most significant discovery among all discoveries because it puts Ghana on the forefront of exporting oil in much larger quantities.

The discovery has drawn attention from both within Ghana and international

> 3 Ghana has <mark>3 offshore sedimentary basins and one onshore basin: Tano-Cape Three Point Basin
Time-use data confirms women are overburdened by household and family responsibilities, including care for children and the elderly.<sup>31</sup> Time spent on childcare and elderly care (as a share of total hours of activity in a regular weekday) is three times as much for women than men (Table 5). The pattern is independent of geographic location and much more significant in households with children, especially young children.<sup>32</sup>

# Table 5. Time Use Survey Responses, Armenia

QUESTION: HOW MANY HOURS DID YOU SPEND IN A TYPICAL WEEKDAY/WEEKEND ON THE FOLLOWING ACTIVITIES?

|||Elderly||Work and<br>commuting<br>|||Domestic<br>|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Sleeping|care|Childcare|to work|Studying|Leisure|tasks|Transport|Others|
|Location||||||||||
|Female|31.3|1.9|9.8|14.4|4.8|17.7|12.6|4.9|0.4|
|respondent||||||||||
|Armenia||||||||||
|Male|32.7|1.3|3.5|26.8|3.1|19.8|3.2|4.7|0.4|
|respondent||||||||||
|Armenia||||||||||

Women with tertiary education spend more time at work than women with no tertiary education while men spend close to 27 percent of their time in employment. Adding up time spent on elderly care, childcare, and
mark>8</mark>_ <mark>, 205-240.</mark> <mark>Borusyak, K., & Hull, P. (2020).</mark> _<mark>Non-random exposure to exogenous shocks: Theory and applications</mark>_ <mark>(No. w27845). National Bureau of Economic Research.</mark> Caliendo, L., & Parro, F. (2015). Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA. The Review of Economic Studies, 82(1), 1-44.

<mark>Chodorow-Reich, G. (2020). Regional data in macroeconomics: Some advice for practitioners.</mark> _<mark>Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>115</mark>_ <mark>, 103875.</mark> <mark>Dix-Carneiro, R., & Kovak, B. K. (2015). Trade liberalization and the skill premium: A local labor markets approach.</mark> _<mark>American Economic Review</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>105</mark>_ <mark>(5), 551-557.</mark> <mark>Dube, A., Girardi, D., Jorda, O., & Taylor, A. M. (2023). A local projections approach to difference-indifferences event studies (No. w31184). National Bureau of Economic Research.</mark> <mark>Góes, C., Lopez-Acevedo, G., & Robertson, R. (2023). Gender-Segmented Labor Markets and Trade Shocks.</mark> _<mark>arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.09252</mark>_ <mark>.</mark> <mark>Hamermesh, D. S. (1996).<
, we have found that the pattern illustrated by our 14-day US analysis holds for all three countries: Actual hotspots are identified with enough accuracy to warrant alerts, but more than a few predicted hotspots have little or no actual change, even if the core model is augmented with locally-significant variables. This persistent bifurcation is an important issue for future research.

For the present, we believe that our results suffice to convey the following message: Any country with a panel of spatially-disaggregated Covid-19 infection data can draw on free, globallyavailable databases to estimate a simple, theoretically-grounded infection spread model based on human spatial interaction. Our evidence from three very different country cases suggests that the results can produce useful alerts for future infections as far as one month in advance.

# **7.  Possible Extensions of the Model**

We have focused on developing and testing a core model that can be estimated with publiclyavailable data in any setting. In our model of Covid-19 growth dynamics, a locale’s population density, time-varying W-value, Gompertz α-value and travel time θ-value determine its growth rate toward a time-varying asymptote. The asymptote for a particular locale undoubtedly has other determinants that are country-specific, and there may well be determinants that belong in the core model because they are universally-available and affect infection transmission in all cases with high significance and the same sign. We have explored both possibilities in a large number of experiments conducted with our “Tukey 1/3” sample set aside for exploration. Among the variables explored in one or more countries are health risk (diabetes and obesity incidence), life expectancy (a proxy for general health conditions), income, ethnicity, employment-related infection risk, demography (percent elderly), temperature and humidity, wind conditions, altitude 16
as it induces skilled-biased technological change (Acemoglu 2003). Although the skill premia are determined by technological change and the relative supply of skills, there was no data available on technological progress for transition countries before the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. We decided to use trade as a percentage of GDP as it represents a trade openness index that measures the importance of trade in the domestic economic output of a country.

The polity index comes from the database of the Polity 5 Project of the Center for Systemic Peace which assesses the concomitant democratic and autocratic characteristics of the governments of 167 independent states around the world since 1946 <u>(https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html). The polity index is a compound index of the</u> democracy and autocracy indexes; thus, it captures the nuances of democracy and autocracy that coexist within each independent state. The autocracy index measures the level of autocracy prevailing in a country using a scale that goes from 0 to 10, where 0 is no autocracy traits at all and 10 is the highest level of autocracy (e.g., hereditary monarchy). The democracy index employs the same scale to assess the democracy level that characterized each government and assigns a value of 0 to those countries whose governments exhibit no traits of democracy and a value of 10 to the countries with the highest level of democracy (i.e., consolidated democracy). The polity index results from subtracting the autocracy index from the democracy index of each state so its scale ranges from -10 to 10, where -10 is a perfect autocracy and 10 is a perfect democracy. Therefore, the polity index can be used as a measure of how far each country is from perfect democracy. Democracy can be used to assess the strength of the transition (World Bank 2002).

The polity index database contains information for most of the countries and years included in the study. This database has no information on Iceland at all and
total fixed costs for developing the assessment program from its costs of other activities. J-PAL Africa’s fixed cost for developing the certification program on top of the assessment program was approximately USD 17,685 or USD 7.87 per candidate who received the public certification intervention. This covered J-PAL Africa staff costs during development and all costs of piloting the certificates with firms and workseekers. This includes the cost of developing and piloting the private and placebo certifications, which we cannot easily separate from the public certification, but excludes the costs of developing and piloting the audit study and firm-facing experiments.

We compare these average costs to the average benefit per participant who received the public certification intervention over the first three months after the intervention. Public certification increases average earnings by USD 9.05 in the week before the endline survey and the endline survey occurred on average 14.4 weeks after treatment. Multiplying these together gives an average effect on earnings since treatment of USD 130.2: 5.6 times higher than the average variable cost of certification, 2.3 times higher than the average variable cost of assessment and certification, and 2.0 times higher than the average variable cost of assessment and average variable and fixed costs of certification. The gains to treated workseekers over just three and a half months easily exceed the cost of public certification and assessment.

The preceding calculation assumes that the treatment effect on weekly earnings does not vary through time from treatment to the endline. The public certification effect on earnings does not substantially vary with the time period from treatment to endline. But the treatment effects on recalled employment in the first and second months after treatment are not identical, suggesting a possible time trend (Table D.10). To account for this, we convert the weekly earnings effect into monthly terms and multiply this by the sum of the employment effect in the first month after treatment, the second month after treatment, and the week before the endline. This gives an average on earnings since treatment of USD 110
cated by the household, _Cari,c,t_ the percentage owning a car, _Motorcyclei,c,t_ the percentage owning a motorcycle, _Land Phonei,c,t_ the percentage owning a land phone line, _Mobile Phonei,c,t_ the percentage owning a mobile phone, and _Use of interneti,c,t_ the percentage using internet. _Employmenti,c,t_ can be either the sectoral share or the labor force participation share.

We identify several identification challenges. Infrastructure investments are likely endogenously allocated with respect to the outcomes of interest. Given the high cost of infrastructure investments, conscious allocation decisions are to be expected (by, for example, targeting high growth potential locations or politically demanded locations). Measurement error in the righthand side variables may lead to attenuation bias (from, for example, inaccurate information on the timing of infrastructure expansion or imprecise historic road and grid maps). Measurement errors, which are expected to be large in this case, lead to an OLS estimate that is biased toward zero. We consider these issues by providing the results of an IV strategy in the next section.

We first report results for the unbalanced panel of districts that include at least one EA. We estimate local average associations of the three infrastructure investments—roads, electricity, and Internet—and the interaction between these investments on sectoral employment at the district-year level. Then we analyze heterogenous impacts on structural transformation.

# **3.1.2 OLS results**

We start with a regression that includes all countries, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Chad. We then compare the results by country and discuss the existence of heterogeneous effects across subnational locations. Throughout, standard errors are clustered at the district level, the level of treatment.

**All countries** A better access to infrastructure is associated with a transformation away from agriculture. Table 2 reports the results of pooling together data from Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad. Having access to paved roads but no electricity at the district level is
stipulates that transaction size will be a key determinant of foreign investment.

# 4. Data

We first examine mergers and acquisitions in Korea (December 1997 to July 1999) to look for consistency with the hypotheses derived above. Since the ownership limit to foreign investors was raised to 50% in December 1997, the ownership data for 1998 and 1999 is particularly appropriate for hypotheses testing. Data on mergers and acquisitions in Korea are from Securities Data Corporation (2000). The data include the 4 digit SIC code of the target and the acquiring firm and detailed information about the transaction. We supplement these data with data on 631 firms that were listed on the Korea Stock Exchange in 1998.6 The firm-level financial data for 1997 are primarily from the Worldscope database. The Worldscope database covers publicly traded companies in 51 countries. Foreign investment is from the Handbook of Listed Companies, Daewoo Securities (1998 and 1999). In cases where the Worldscope data were missing or incomplete, we collected additional company information from Wisenet Korea.<sup>7</sup> This internet server provides detailed financial information, including income statements and balance sheets, for listed companies in Korea. We use 1997 financial data because this is what investors observed at the time they made their investment. In addition, this means there is very little possibility of an effect of foreign ownership on firm characteristics.

We also collect data on business group affiliation, as this is recognized in previous studies to be an important feature of the Korean corporate sector (Claessens, Djankov, and Lang, 2000). 6fIn January 1998 760 firms were listed on the Korean Stock Exchange. Financial data for 28 firms which filed for bankruptcy in 1998 were unavailable. Another 101 firms reported incomplete ownership or unconsolidated financial data.

'The data were downloaded from their website: www.wsn.co.kr.

9
top-down strategies to favor active participation of communities concerned, negotiation among actors, transparent decision-making mechanisms, and innovation in strategies of urban management policies.<sup>9</sup> More comprehensively, one can find definitions of urban governance, as well as descriptions of potential indicators of urban governance in the work of Mehta (1998) and the UNCHS (1999).

Mehta (1998) looks at urban governance through a set of attributes. He introduces the attribute of _accountability_ which he suggests is derived from how cities manage their finances, communicate on use of funds and achievements to their citizens, and adhere to legal requirements and administrative policies. Embedded in Mehta’s concept of accountability is the question of _responsiveness_ , which includes the ability of a decentralized entity to determine and respond to the needs of its constituents. In doing so, city officials need to have processes of citizen _participation_ , and a system for monitoring and evaluation, as well as reporting on results achieved. These three measures are critical if one is using the definition of a city as a place, where it is performing with respect to local issues, and managing the consequences of globalization locally.

If we consider the other definition of a globalized city, as an outcome of globalization but also shaping its role within a globalized world then we need to look at dynamic indicators

> 8  See Kaufmann, Kraay, Mastruzzi, _Governance Matters III: Governance Indicators for 1996–2002_ **,** World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3106.

> 9 <u>http://www.unesco.org/most/most2.htm</u>

7