rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
began in April 2011 and has been continuing at an increasing pace as the conflict in Syria expands.<sup>5</sup> The Turkish government has provided a tremendous amount of support in the form of shelter and essential items to help sustain the livelihood of large numbers of refugees. However, aid funds are not limitless and refugees face hardships that will persist over the long-term. The refugee camp population in Turkey has been stable since March of 2013 as the physical capacity of the camps have been exhausted.<sup>6</sup> This saturation has resulted in a steep increase in the number of Syrians living outside camps across Turkey. The proportion of Syrian refugees living outside camps increased from 53 percent to 87 percent between March 2013 and November 2014.<sup>7</sup> In addition, even though refugees living outside camps continue to be concentrated near the Syrian border (64 percent), the dispersion of Syrians across the country has expanded, especially in major urban centers such as Istanbul and Ankara.

The results in this paper are limited to 2013 due to changes in the 2014 LFS that make poverty estimations incomparable to previous years.<sup>8</sup> Therefore our results may provide only a partial insight into the impact of SUTPs, since the dispersion of Syrians across Turkey has increased greatly in 2014 and 2015. The descriptive characteristics of foreign-born and host community households are still comparable, and therefore allow for comparisons between 2013 and 2014. It is possible to make some inferences on welfare changes by looking at changes in host community employment rates and labor market characteristics.

Overall, this paper finds no negative effects on host community welfare from an increasing population of SUTPs. As other authors have stated, the influx of SUTPs has had both positive and negative impacts. It seems on average, the host community has been strong and adaptive, and not negatively impacted. This is not to disregard that real strains do exist in some regions where the SUTP population is very large
Policy Research Working Paper 8990

# **Abstract**

Policy toward fiscal rules is an important issue in the countries of the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia). According to a rough estimate, the countries with rules (all but North Macedonia) have complied with their debt and overall-deficit rules a little more than half the time. An online survey, conducted for this paper, suggests that public understanding of the rules is limited, which may reduce the political pressure for compliance. To get debt down to prudent levels, Albania and Montenegro will need a strong commitment to complying with their fiscal rules and will often have to do more than their deficit rules require. The following principles should guide future policy toward fiscal rules: more emphasis should be given to ensuring that fiscal rules are widely understood and enjoy the support of a broad range of stakeholders; policy toward the rules should be consistent with accession to the European Union, but the rules should be simpler than the European Union’s and the debt limits lower; limits in rules should not be mistaken for targets; and public financial management should be improved to support the implementation of rules.

This paper is a product of the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at ekikoni@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those
motivate our choice of Colombia as a representative case study. Compared to other middleincome economies, Colombia is a richer country that grows at a slower rate. However, these differences are not substantial, and we can consider Colombia a representative middle-income economy.

Colombia’s emissions are half as large as the average middle-income country (on a per-capita basis), which is partly explained by the extensive use of hydroelectricity in Colombia. Electricity access is also high and comes close to 100 percent. Low carbon intensity and good availability of electricity make a strong case for electric vehicles to help decarbonize the economy.

The Colombian government has set an ambitious goal to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement commitments (Law 1844, 2017). To help achieve this commitment, the government intends to have 600,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030.<sup>11</sup> Table 3: Summary statistics of Colombia’s economy in 2019

|**Variable**|**Colombia**<br>**Mi**<br>**Co**|**ddle Income**<br>**untries**|
|---|---|---|
|GDP per capita (current US$)|6425.0|5480.3|
|GDP growth (annual %)|3.3|4.6|
|CO2emissions (metric tons per<br>capita)|1.6*|3.7*|
|Access to electricity (% of<br>population)|99.8|93.5|
|Renewable energy consumption|||
|(% of total final energy<br>consumption)|30.7*|20.4**|

Note: Calculations are based on the World Bank Open Data. Middle-income countries are defined based on the World Bank country classification for 2021.<sup>*</sup
inaccessible pre‐war region, and included the nomadic population, interviewing a total of 6,092 households in December 2017 (Table 1).

_Table 1: Number of interviews by population type, Somali High Frequency Survey_

|**Population type **|**Wave 1 households**<br>**Wave 2 households**|
|---|---|
|Urban|2,864<br>4,011|
|Rural|822<br>1,106|
|IDP|431<br>468|
|Nomadic|0<br>507|
|Total|4,117<br>6,092|
||Source: Authors’ calculations.|

The analysis excludes nomadic households and IDPs within and outside IDP settlements to avoid invalid comparisons between wave 1 and wave 2. Large‐scale drought‐related displacement implies that IDP populations before the drought in wave 1 were different from IDP populations surveyed during the drought in wave 2. Nomadic households do not have a permanent place of residence, so that a geographical exposure measure cannot be assigned in a meaningful way. The final data set contains 5,852 urban and 1,594 rural households. The data include information on consumption and key household and individual characteristics and perceptions, as well as information on shocks and vulnerabilities. Poverty is measured against the international poverty line of US$ 1.90 per capita per day, derived from the spatially and intertemporally deflated consumption aggregate (Pape and Wollburg, forthcoming).

The Normalized Deviation Vegetation Index (NDVI) is used to determine the exposure of households to the drought. The NDVI is derived from satellite images measuring the health of vegetation. Below‐average NDVI values imply drier‐than‐usual conditions, indicating the vegetation health is also below‐average. NASA’s MODIS Terra and Aqua platform provides the daily global NDVI data at 500m resolution, which serve as the source of data for this analysis (Schaaf, 2015)
page 13 Table 1. Estimation of the Average Number of Life-Days Saved Per Vaccination from Ghanaian Data

|Vaccination/|Life-<br>Days-|Prop.<br>at|Poten-<br>tial|Prop.<br>Prdcng|LDS<br>Per|Distribut<br>Vaccina|ions<br>of<br>tions:|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Dose|Lost|Risk|LDS|Im'ty|Vac.|Theory|Obsrvd.|
|(1)|(2)|(3)|(4)|(5)|(6)|(7)|(8)|
|1. Measles|23.36|.039|599.0|.60|359.38|.191|.128|
|2. Tuberculosis|11.01|1.00|11.01|.90|10.45|.142|.152|
|3. Polio/l|1.20|.038|15.8|.90|.57|.111|.180|
|4. Polio/2|||7.9|.90|.29|.111|.096|
|5. Polio/3|||7.9|.90|.29|.111|.084|
|6. Diptheria/l|.014|.077|.086|.90|7.08|.037|.060|
|7. Diptheria/2|||.078|.90|6.65|.037|.032|
|8. Dipthena/3|||.018|.90|1.57|.037|.028|
|9. Pertussis/
members in Industry|0.277|0.447|4029|0.202|0.401|747|-0.075|
|HH. members in Services|0.522|0.500|4029|0.383|0.486|747|-0.139|
|HH. members in Agriculture|0.502|0.500|4029|0.664|0.473|747|0.162|
|Numberof income earners|2.102|1.171|3647|2.070|0.910|704|-0.032|

Notes: This table reports average characteristics of households in the control and treated groups using data from GLSS 5. Standard errors of the differences in average characteristics are in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 24
labor market<sup>3</sup> in addition to the customary physical and human rights protection it provides. This implies that the interaction between refugees and hosts is likely deeper, making understanding the effects attractive from a policy perspective.

Exploiting this opportunity for rigorously addressing the study objectives, I combine georeferenced settlement site-level panel data on the number of refugees sheltered in Ethiopia from the UNHCR and detailed nationally representative and geo-referenced household- and individuallevel panel data from the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey (ESS), a part of the LSMS-ISA project, both covering the period of the recent uptick in the flow of refugees into the country.

> 2Ethiopia is sub-divided into nine regional states and two city administrations, in the study period. I refer all of them as regions. 3See article 21(3) of Refugee Proclamation No. 409/2004 and articles 17 and 18 of the 1951 UN Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees. Additionally, see the next footnote concerning article 17(2) of the convention.

4
# **Trends in Private Sector Development in World Bank Education Projects**

by

## Shobhana Sosale *

The World Bank 1818 H Street N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433

* The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and are not to be attributed to the World Bank. The author thanks Prof. Daniel Levy (State University of New York, Albany) and Prof. Alain Mingat (Institut de Recherche sur l'Economie de l'Education, Dijon, France) for providing valuable comments, and for their insights in improving the basic content and presentation of the subject matter. Thanks also to Harry Patrinos, Jacob van Lutsenburg Maas, Arthur Karlin, Gerver Torres, Madalena dos Santos, Sam Carlson, William Experton and Jeffrey Waite for supporting this research, commenting on the draft paper, and providing useful suggestions for improvement, and to Nandita Tannan for data on World Bank lending.
and creative content providers in Beijing and Shanghai, 2001**

||Beij<br>|ing<br>|Shan<br>|ghai<br>|Nationa <br>|l in total<br>|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Firms|Employees<br>(thousand)|Firms|Employees<br>(thousand)|Firms|Employees<br>(thousand)|
|Total|222766|6466.9|235347|8267.8|3025862|165022.2|
|Computer services|6981|153.5|3384|65.2|29256|522.5|
|Software development|4679|100.9|2353|47.5|20027|371.1|
|Computer system services|1230|24.8|574|7.7|4771|69.1|
|Information Consultancy|26682|304.8|7576|109.5|77787|934.2|
|Advertisement/marketing|5215|61.4|1983|28.5|27953|294.9|
|Business Consultant|8298|93.1|459|11.2|16350|234.1|
|Finance/security|1618|137.3|958|114.7|63271|3835.0|
|Culture and Arts|1991|40.2|693|15.8|5544|150.5|
|Printing Publishing|364|21.2|174|6.2|1629|90.8|
|Media|348|10.4|267|7.3|5159|148.0|

_Source_ : The Second National Survey on Basic Units, 2002.

14
# VII. **Conclusion**

This paper examines the effect of decision-making rules on resource allocation outcomes. Using data from 250 villages in Afghanistan, we compare the allocation outcomes under direct democracy with outcomes under consultative procedures. Our findings indicate that direct democracy limits elite influence over allocation outcomes, while consultative processes are susceptible to elite control. Elite control over selection outcomes is found to worsen perceptions of local governance and of the local capture, which implies that such influence is contrary to the interests of the general population and thereby reflects elite capture, rather than more benign forms of elite influence. Direct democracy in contrast, increases public satisfaction both by increasing alignment of outcomes with public preferences and as a result of increased acceptance of the process by villagers.

The findings of the study are especially noteworthy given the context in which they occurred. While direct democracy is almost unheard of in rural Afghanistan, the consultation meeting procedure employed by the experiment approximated the method by which public decisions are traditionally made, with a council of tribal elders and other local notables convening an open discussion among community members with an aim of reaching decision by consensus. Such procedures command great legitimacy in Afghan society owing to their long history of use and accordance with practices prescribed by the Holy Qur‘an. That these procedures proved susceptible to elite capture in the experiment thus suggests that direct democracy can serve a valuable role in improving the equity of public goods provision even in societies that lack democratic traditions.

The study is also noteworthy in that it replicates the field experiment of Olken (2010) and, given the difference in the results of the two studies, demonstrates how the context of an intervention can affect outcomes. Whereas Olken (2010) observes a limited effect of direct democracy on the type of projects selected within a context of a repeated series of project selections and multi-hamlet Indonesian villages, we find that a similar intervention can influence the type of projects selected in a one-off event in single Afghan hamlets. The difference between the two programmatic contexts in the
Under the invoice credit VAT system, business buyers report business sellers’ sales by claiming their input VAT credit in B2B transactions. In B2C transactions, however, end‐consumers do not provide tax authorities with any information on business sellers’ sales. Therefore, pulling policies encouraging end‐consumers to play an active role in providing such information could be a very powerful tool for unveiling hidden transactions in cash businesses. If end‐consumers, encouraged by tax incentives, used electronically traceable payment means for purchases, tax authorities could access secure and reliable sales data on cash‐ intensive businesses. In the period after Korea revoked what hindsight shows to have been a poorly managed and failed receipt compensation policy, greatly different economic and social 22
in regions where women have fewer, or worse, labor market opportunities. On the other hand, violence increases the costs of working through the perceived risk of violence, and these costs may be especially salient for workers on the margin of the decision to work. Such a relationship would emerge in time-series data where regions with dierent exposure levels to violence would experience dierent FLFP rates accordingly. For example, Khan et al. [2017] nd a short-lived negative eect of terrorism on labor market outcomes for Pakistani women that the authors attribute to fear.<sup>3</sup> Using national-level panel data and novel instrumental variables, Berrebi and Ostwald [2016] nd a negative impact of terrorism over female labor force participation. When their cross-country results are updated for the period 1990-2016, however, they prove to be sensitive to the inclusion of explanatory variables in the most parsimonious specications. As Table 1 shows, the negative relation between violence (approximated by the three variables used throughout this paper) and FLFP loses signicance after the inclusion of control variables, which hints the existence of some other factors that drive both violence and FLFP. We argue that analyzing local labor markets as we do alleviates the confounding factors problem by exploiting within-country variations in FLFP and violence.

Focusing on the within-country variation in violence, however, may reveal a positive relationship between violence and FLFP. For instance, Gallegos [2012] nds that exposure to conict between 1980 and 2000 increased the probability of women working in Peru as a mechanism to complement household's income. Menon and van der Meulen Rodgers [2015] show how civil war in Nepal aected women's decisions about engaging in work outside the home. Kreibaum and Klasen [2015] estimate the eect of Vietnam's war on FLFP but they use a cohorts approach to nd that the "added worker" eect is positive for people directly aected by the war and smaller for those individuals
Moreover, regions within a country are also more connected and have freer movement of labor and goods in comparison to the connectivity between states at the global level. In this respect, the drastic increase in Turkey’s connectivity over the last decade, might have had a positive impact on poverty convergence in the country.

Turkey is a regionally diverse country in terms of economic development, with poorer regions located mostly in the Eastern and Southeastern parts of the country. Regions are diverse in their production activities and have experienced varying degrees of economic growth. To understand the patterns of poverty reduction as well as regional poverty convergence, we analyze NUTS2 regional level data (Figure 18).<sup>5</sup> The literature has focused on regional determinants of poverty reduction from “patterns of growth” and “initial conditions”. The patterns of growth theory assumes that growth across sectors may influence poverty reduction and the poor differently than aggregate growth. For example, growth in labor intensive sectors will have more poverty reduction impacts than growth in capital intensive sectors (Loayza and Raddatz, 2010). Initial conditions such as education levels, demographic structure, migration patterns, and mortality rates are also important from a growth perspective. Between the paper’s period of analysis (2006 and 2013), poverty rates decline heterogeneously across regions. This paper follows the literature on patterns of growth to identify more precisely the channels of poverty dynamics between NUTS2 regions in Turkey.

Studies have shown that sector composition and labor intensity have an impact on the amount of regional poverty reduction at a global scale. The size of economic growth does matter, but its composition in terms of intensive use of unskilled labor is also important since, this channel of growth enables the poor to contribute to the production process (Loayza and Raddatz, 2010). At a sector level, growth in services has been found to be major contributors to poverty reduction in Brazil, Indonesia, and India (Ferreira, Leite, Ravallion, 2010; Suryahadi, Suryadarma,
., 2004; Roberts and Tybout, 1997; Aw, Chung and Roberts, 2002; and Brown and Earle, 2004 for studies on Latin America, East Asia and transition economies, respectively).

Much useful work on these issues has proceeded on a country-by-country basis, using firm-level datasets for a specific country. But there also is a clear interest and need to combine data from multiple countries. This allows in principle an assessment of how much of the observed dynamism at the micro level is due to industry-specific technological factors and market characteristics, and how much is the result of different institutional and policy settings that influence firm behavior and competitive forces in each market. In this paper, we do not specifically address the role of policy and institutions. Instead, we conduct exploratory data analysis exercises of the panel dataset exploiting the variation across countries, industries and time. The dataset, constructed through ‘distributed micro-data analysis’ as described in detail in Bartelsman, Scarpetta, and Haltiwanger (2004), includes indicators built up from (confidential) micro-level sources available to researchers in each of the countries included.<sup>2</sup> We present evidence on the process of creative destruction in a selection of industrialized and developing economies. We focus on the distribution of firm size over time, the frequency and size of firm entry and exit, and the evolution of the (size) distribution of firms by entry-cohort. Further, we analyze the sources of productivity growth at the industry and aggregate levels. We look at the contribution of firm entry and exit to productivity growth as well as at the contribution coming from the reallocation of resources across existing firms. Overall, we provide a comprehensive picture of the magnitude, characteristics and effectiveness of the creative

> 2. The approach to collecting and constructing harmonized firm-level data in this project differs from projects like the ICA project that use the same survey instrument in a number of countries. A discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the alternative approaches as well as the relationship on key
Persson, Karl Gunnar. 1999. _Grain Markets in Europe, 1500-1900: Integration and Deregulation_ . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

- Porteous, Obie C. 2012. “Empirical Effects of Short-Term Export Bans: The Case of African Maize.”

- Poulton, Colin, Jonathan Kydd, Steve Wiggins, and Andrew Dorward. 2006. “State Intervention for Food Price Stabilisation in Africa: Can It Work?” _Food Policy_ 31 (4) (August): 342–356.

- Rashid, Shahidur, Ralph Cummings Jr., and Ashok Gulati. 2007. “Grain Marketing Parastatals in Asia: Results from Six Case Studies.” _World Development_ 35 (11) (November): 1872–1888.

- Rashid, Shahidur, and Solomon Lemma. 2011. “Strategic Grain Reserves in Ethiopia: Institutional Design and Operational Performance.” _IFPRI Discussion Paper_ 01054.

- Salant, Stephen W. 1983. “The Vulnerability of Price Stabilization Schemes to Speculative Attack.” _The Journal of Political Economy_ 91 (1): 1–38.

- Sandmo, Agnar. 1971. “On the Theory of the Competitive Firm Under Price Uncertainty.” _The American Economic Review_ 61 (1): 65–73.

- Seale Jr., James L, Anita Regmi, and Jason Bernstein. 2003. “International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns.” _USDA, Technical Bulletin_ 1904 (October).

- Sen, Amartya Kumar. 1981. _Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation_ . Oxford: Oxford University Press.

- Slayton, Tom. 2009. “Rice Crisis Forensics: How Asian Governments Carelessly Set the World Rice Market on Fire.” _Center for Global Development, Working Paper_ 163 (March).

- Staatz, John M, Niama Nango Dembele, Valerie A Kelly, and Ramziath Adjao. 2008. “Agricultural Globalization in Reverse: The Impact of the Food Crisis in West Africa.” _Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Food Security
defining four parenting styles based around levels of over-controlling and responsive parenting: authoritative (high control, high responsiveness), authoritarian (high control, low responsiveness), indulgent/permissive (low control, high responsiveness), and uninvolved/neglectful parenting (low control, low responsiveness). In the Anglo population in Western societies, authoritative parenting has been most consistently associated with positive socioemotional competence, cognitive and health outcomes in children (Baumrind, 1991; Bornstein & Zlotnik, 2008; Jackson,

> 11The psychology literature has paid close attention to these practices, particularly in the case of corporal punishment and spanking. See Gershoff and Grogan-Kaylor (2016) for a review and Putnick et al. (2012) for an analysis of data from a cross-section of countries.

13