rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
Table 4: Average WTP

||Av<br>2013|erage WTP<br>2016|
|---|---|---|
|Stove Durability (1 year)|17 birr|54 birr ($2)|
|Time Reduction (10%)|47 birr|86 birr ($3)|
|Fuel Reduction (10%)|62 birr|142 birr ($5)|
|Smoke Reduction(10%)|45 birr|112 birr($4)|

Note: The average is calculated between all treatment households and long-term use treatment households. The conversation to $ (USD) is approximate (1 USD = 27.52 birr May 2018) The results support the view that the WTP estimates obtained from choice experiment surveys (for the control group) are stable, at least over a three-year period, and can therefore be used for costbenefit analysis and welfare calculations over time. The results also show that respondents in treatment groups, especially the respondents who continue to use the stoves long-term, are willing to pay significantly more for the individual benefits of the stoves than in 2013. Next, we discuss the policy implications of this in the conclusion.

# **6. Conclusions and Policy Implications**

There is a growing effort in the non-market valuation literature to better understand the stability and evolution of preferences over time. A small number of studies (Bliem et al. 2012, Brouwer and Bateman 2005, Mørkbak and Olsen 2014, Price et al. 2016) have used the test-retest method to analyze stability of preferences but have found mixed results. A combined repeated choice experiment and an RCT on stove adoption provide a unique opportunity to analyze both the stability and the evolution of preferences.

Respondents were given the exact same choice question in 2013 and 2016 and the treatment group in the RCT received improved firewood stoves, whereas the control group continued to use traditional stoves. This setting allows us to use a difference-in-difference framework to analyze
Table A1: Industry classification

|Label|IFR|EU KLEMS|BACI and TRAINS|
|---|---|---|---|
|Agriculture|A|A|111-322|
|Mining|C|B|510-990|
|Food Products|10-12|10-12|1010-1200|
|Textiles|13-15|13-15|1311-1520|
|Wood, paper, printing|16, 17-18|16-18|1610-1629, 1701-1820|
|Chemicals|19-21|19-21|1910-2100|
|Rubber and plastics|22, 229, 23|22-23|2211-2200, 2310-2399|
|Metal|24, 25|24-25|2410-2432, 2511-2599|
|Electronics|260-268, 271-275, 279|26-27|2610-2680, 2710-2790|
|Machinery|28, 289|28|2811-2829|
|Automotive|291-292, 2931-2934, 2939, 2999, 299, 30|29-30|2910-2930, 3011-3099|
|Other manufacturing|91|31-33|3100-3320|
|Utilities|E|D-E|3510-3900|
|Construction|F|F|4100-4390|
|Education|P|P|8510-8550|
|Other non-manufact.|90|45-47, 49-53, I, 58-63, K, L, M-N, O, Q, R, S, T,|U<br>4510-8430, 8610-9900|

_Notes_ : Table reports the industry classification used in the analysis, as well as the corresponding codes in the IFR, EU KLEMS, BACI and TRAINS data sets. BACI and TRAINS are mapped from HS6 product codes to ISIC4 industry codes.
in its construction in terms of the data, and it should not be understood as equivalent to the official PMT. The adjustments include use of different years of SUSENAS to the current set, corresponding to data available when this project was initiated, as well as the simplification of the dataset. We eliminate a number of household demographic and work status interaction terms that were too numerous for the sequential approach proposed below, while offering only a marginal predictive gain. Despite these differences, the targeting metrics are of broadly comparable magnitude<sup>5</sup> , and we would not expect a change in the qualitative conclusions if the current PMT were used instead.

# **3 Methods**

We already identified accuracy, cost and verifiability as the three major design considerations of a statistical targeting method. An additional consideration for methods that require on-the-fly prediction in the resourceconstrained, often geographically remote setting of PMT deployment is that they need to be computationally feasible. The approaches proposed here meet this criterion by virtue of being relatively simple to implement and deploy on hardware with modest storage, memory and computational power at inference time. If we consider verifiability to be embedded in the selection of variables that can be queried reliably, accuracy and cost remain as desirable outcomes. A more extensive variable set improves the predictive power of household data, as long as the additional variables contain additional information about its consumption level, but it also requires higher collection cost. Consequently, statistical targeting requires a choice along the length-accuracy trade-off in a resource-constrained setting.

The standard PMT approach described above has become widespread since its publication by Grosh and Baker [1995] to design models that use a moderate number of explanatory variables that also achieve a suitable level of targeting accuracy. In its pure form of automated variable selection, it selects the point on the accuracy-vs-enumeration-cost spectrum that maximizes model accuracy. This section revolves around the idea that other points – and especially earlier points – along the variable sequence should also be considered. A shorter questionnaire may be less accurate,
distortions caused by the electricity subsidy,

> 3 The ‘USE’ matrix in a SAM refers to inputs of different goods and services for the production of various goods and services.

> 4 GTAP is a global network of researchers who conduct quantitative analysis of international economic policy issues, especially trade policy.  A key output of the network is a global economic database, covering many sectors and all parts of the world.  It is coordinated by the Center for Global Trade Analysis,  Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN.

15
Policy Research Working Paper 9798

# **Abstract**

This paper contributes to a long-standing debate in development practice: Under what conditions can externally established participatory groups engage in the collective management of services beyond the life of a project? Using 10 years of panel data on water point functionality from Indonesia’s rural water program, the Program for Community-Based Water Supply and Sanitation, the paper explores the determinants of subnational variation in infrastructure sustainability. It then investigates positive and negative deviance cases to answer why some communities have successfully engaged in system management despite being located in difficult conditions as per quantitative findings and vice versa. The findings show that differences in the implementation of community participation, driven by local social relations between frontline service providers, that is, village authorities and water user groups, explain sustainable management. This initial condition of state-society relations influences how the project is initiated, kicking off negative or positive reinforcing pathways, leading to community collective action or exit. The paper concludes that the relationships between frontline government representatives and community actors are an important and underexamined aspect of the ability of external projects to generate successful community-led management of public goods.

This paper is a product of the Water Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at dthapa1@worldbank.org; mnoorfarid@gmail.com; and cprevost@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do
opportunities but also high risk countries. UNDP China et al (2017) suggests that the initiative can help BRI countries achieve industrial diversification and economic growth and discussed the conditions for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

# 3. Data and Stylized Facts

In this section, we describe the main data sources of FDI and related economic characteristics and an array of stylized facts emerging from the data.

# 3.1 Foreign Investment in BRI: Data and Patterns

The main sources of FDI data used are UNCTAD’s bilateral FDI flow database and China Global Investment Tracker. In addition, we have also collected FDI statistics from individual countries’ official agencies as supplementary data.<sup>7</sup>

> 7 Generally, four types of FDI data have been used for economic analysis in the literature, including (i) aggregate FDI data from international agencies such as UNCTAD and OECD which tend to provide a relatively comprehensive country coverage; (ii) MNC activity data from national agencies, which offer national coverages but usually impose strict nationality and other restrictions on access and are not available systematically across countries; (iii) proprietary firm ownership or mergers and acquisitions (M&A) data sets provided by publishers such as Dun & Bradstreet, Bureau van Dijk,

10
To answer these questions requires extending the time series of estimates of distortions in the Krueger/Schiff/Valdes sample and extending the sample to a wider range of countries. That is the focus of a new research project getting under way at the World Bank. But in the meantime it is possible to answer the question in the title of the present paper using a new database for 2001. Specifically, here we address the question: What would be the consequences for agricultural markets and farm incomes if all countries were to reduce their trade distortions simultaneously (as in an ambitious WTO round), as distinct from just reducing their own distortions?<sup>1</sup> That is, the aim of this paper is to make use of a new database and a global general equilibrium model to assess how agricultural markets and value added in agriculture would change if, over the next decade, the world were to remove all merchandise trade barriers and agricultural subsidies. While no-one anticipates such a radical reform, the analysis serves as a benchmark to suggest what is at stake in the WTO’s current round of multilateral trade negotiations – as well as in further unilateral reforms. It can also give a better indication of agricultural comparative advantages around the world than is available by looking at indicators in the current distortion-ridden situation.

Specifically, we make use of the World Bank’s recursive dynamic model of the global economy known as LINKAGE (van der Mensbrugghe 2004), which has formed the basis for the World Bank’s standard decade-long projections of the global economy and of its earlier trade analysis (e.g., World Bank 2002, 2004). The distinction is made in our welfare results between

> 1 The Krueger, Schiff and Valdes (1988) and Jensen, Robinson and Tarp (2002) studies focused on effects of just own-country policies, the first using partial equilibrium and the second using national general equilibrium models. On the relationship between those two methodologies, see Bautista, Robinson, Wobst and Tarp (
8 available to pay for electricity. Imputed values are also assigned to items other than food, such as collected firewood. However, separating cash expenditure on food from imputed values was considered adequate for the purpose of assessing affordability of electricity among low‐income households, because by far the greatest share of non‐cash expenditures is food consumption, the share of which increases with decreasing income.

To examine the affordability of grid electricity, monthly consumption corresponding to tiers 3–5 in the multi‐ tier matrix for access to household electricity supply was taken—30 kWh, 100 kWh, and 250 kWh, respectively—and corresponding electricity bills were computed. The bills are inclusive of energy charges, fixed charges, other charges (such as a rural electrification fund fee), and applicable value‐added tax (VAT) and any other tax. They do not include charges unrelated to electricity use (specifically public television and radio license fee) even if they are always added to every residential electricity bill. In addition, 50 kWh a month was considered for comparison with the AICD and because several countries set 50 kWh as the cap on highly subsidized lifeline rates.

The monthly electricity bills for these amounts were then expressed as shares of total household expenditures for all households, whether or not they were connected to the grid. The multi‐tier access framework defines electricity as being affordable if households spend less than 5 percent of total expenditures on monthly consumption of 30 kWh. This paper similarly considers grid electricity to be unaffordable if a household has to spend more than 5 percent of its total expenditures on electricity. As part of the broader study, detailed information on the tariff schedule in effect in July 2014 was collected in 39 countries, including all the 22 countries with household survey data. In many countries, more than one schedule existed, and the least‐cost option was taken for the purpose of examining affordability. If the survey was undertaken when a different tariff schedule was in effect, then monthly nominal per capita expenditures
|||||||
|Total exports|39.3|57.2|56.1|3.5|3.5|4.3|57.2|39.2|39.6|
|Imports ofparts|75.3|80.0|75.0|1.0|0.5|1.0|23.7|19.5|24.0|

Source: Computations based on Turkey reporting to UN COMTRADE Statistics.

In all, developments in trade of ‘buyer-driven’ value chains seem to support the following observations: Respective industrial sectors in Turkey are not enclaves, but appear to be soundly immersed in the domestic economy. Each of them has been competitive in Pan-European markets registering gains in market shares consistently and without reversals over time, which, in turn, indicates continuous industrial modernization. These sectors have become parts of global value chains, organized mainly by EU firms, as trade with the EU and other Pan-European partners accounts for more than half of Turkey’s total trade turnover. Furthermore, although T&C towers over other sectors involved in ‘buyer-driven’ chains, furniture network has recently displayed strong growth outperforming in terms of exports other chains.

# **B** **_._** _‘Producer-driven’ chains: automotive and information technology networks_

Production fragmentation in vertically integrated sectors has led to the emergence of ‘producer-driven’ network trade. It differs in several important respects from traditional, ‘buyerdriven’ global value chains. It includes two-way flows of parts and components across firms located in various countries for further processing and development occurring at several tiers with large multinational corporations playing a central role in coordinating the production process.

‘Producer-driven’ networks are mainly present in capital- and skilled-labor-intensive industries such as automobiles, computers, semiconductors and heavy machinery. Automotive and information and communication technology (ICT) represent the most dynamic ‘producerdriven’ networks. While outsourcing in clothing, footwear or furniture
.<sup>1</sup> Our paper contributes to the literature by conducting, to our knowledge, the first quantitative survey (a meta-analysis) of the empirical literature on the interest rate pass-through. In our meta-analysis, we

> 1 The literature also studies the transmission of changes in the monetary policy rate to deposit rates, which is documented to be weak on average. To ensure greater homogeneity of our meta-analysis, we focus our survey only on the transmission to lending rates.

2
This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the data. Section 3 discusses the identification strategy, its potential shortcomings due to the data problems and the proposed solutions to address these shortcomings. Section 4 presents the results. Section 5 discusses robustness checks and rules out an alternative explanation. Section 6 concludes.

# **2. The data**

The success of rigorously assessing the impact of adolescent childbearing hinges on the availability of a dataset that reports not only birth histories, but miscarriages and abortions as well. ENADID is a nationally representative survey, containing a wide variety of demographic, social and health information. Of particular interest to this work is the detailed questionnaire administered to women aged 15 to 54, including questions on birth histories, medical care during pregnancy and delivery, as well as knowledge of and use of contraception. The module also records all pregnancies that resulted in live birth, stillbirth and abortion. Fortuitously for this study, the survey administered in 2006 distinguishes between spontaneous and induced abortions for the last reported abortion. Although it is not possible to determine whether any abortion prior to the last reported one was spontaneous or induced, the data show that very few women in the sample had more than one abortion.<sup>6</sup> ENADID data contain a number of socio-demographic characteristics, such as marital status, age at the first union, participation in social programs, number of hours worked in the last week, social assistance income, income from labor and others. Unfortunately, ENADID does not include a consumption module, and consequently we are unable to determine the welfare status of the respondents. To address this problem, we construct an asset index based on principal component analysis. Following Filmer and Pritchett (2001), we consider the asset index to be a proxy of the household‟s long-run wealth; assuming that the long-run wealth of the household explains the maximum variance and covariance in the assets used for the construction of the index (summarized in Table A1).

> 6
17 confirmed Influenza and Absenteeism in Schoolchildren, Cairo, Egypt’, _Emerging Infectious Diseases_ , 17(4), pp. 619–625. doi:10.3201/eid1704.101353.

Talic, S. (2021) ‘Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis’, _BMJ_ , p. n2997. doi:10.1136/bmj.n2997.

Udwadia, Z.F. _et al._ (2020) ‘COVID-19 -Tuberculosis interactions: When dark forces collide’, _Indian Journal of Tuberculosis_ , 67(4), pp. S155–S162. doi:10.1016/j.ijtb.2020.07.003.

Utazi, C.E. _et al._ (2020) ‘Geospatial variation in measles vaccine coverage through routine and campaign strategies in Nigeria: Analysis of recent household surveys’, _Vaccine_ , 38(14), pp. 3062–3071. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.02.070.

Vagliasindi, M. (2021) _Measuring the Economic Impact of COVID-19 with Real-Time Electricity Indicators_ . The World Bank (Policy Research Working Papers). doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9806.

Verity, R. _et al._ (2020) ‘Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis’, _The Lancet Infectious Diseases_ , 20(6), pp. 669–677. doi:10.1016/S14733099(20)30243-7.

Wang, P. and Tian, D. (2021) ‘Bibliometric analysis of global scientific research on COVID-19’, _Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity_ , 3(1), pp. 4–9. doi:10.1016/j.jobb.2020.12.002.

Weber, T.P. and Stilianakis, N.I. (2008) ‘Inactivation of influenza A viruses in the environment and modes of transmission:
<br>40 purchase) 5 marginal<br>farmers farmers<br>20<br>- -<br>Year Year<br>millions)<br>Number of farmers (million)<br>Farmer premium income (USD<br>2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Data from AICI The demand for crop insurance is concentrated in the states where crops grow under rain-fed conditions and natural risks are greater, including Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan (Figure 2). Some states, such as Bihar, Karnataka and Gujarat, have historically collected more claims in proportion to their premium contribution than other states.

> 5 Indian rupees (INR) have been converted to US Dollars (USD) using an exchange rate of 45.23 INR to 1 USD.

5
<mark>lasting impacts for children living in receiving areas, whereas Maystadt and Verwimp (2014) find a limited but positive impact of refugees on health outcomes, driven by the improvement of infrastructure including health services in refugees’ hosting areas. We are not aware of studies that looked at the intergenerational health effects of refugee crises on children in Tanzania or elsewhere.</mark> <mark>This paper intends to contribute to the relatively small but growing literature on the long term and intergenerational impacts of early childhood exposure to shocks by expanding this literature to refugee crises. We empirically examine and hypothesize that the already documented health impacts of early life shocks such as natural disasters, famine, war or pollution on the second generation of children also hold for temporary population shocks such as a refugee influx. More specifically, we study if Tanzanian children born to parents who spent their early childhood in high refugee-receiving areas are more likely to be stunted. We focus on under five years old Height for Age Z score (HAZ) and the probability of stunting as our key health indicators. This choice stems from the critical role of these measures in capturing long-term health effects and socio-economic development prospects along the life course.</mark> <mark>The paper finds that children of mothers exposed to the 1993-2001 refugee crisis in Northwestern Tanzania are more likely to be stunted. We use the latest geocoded 2015-2016 Tanzanian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) capturing migration histories of mothers and fathers. Our results suggest that, almost 15 years after refugees’ arrival, under five years old children born to mothers who were between 0 and 5 years old during the refugees’ influx (1993-2001) and living closer to refugee camps have lower Height-for-Age Z-scores and are more likely to be stunted than a comparable sample of children whose mothers were more than five years old at the time of the shock. We also find that mothers who were inutero and less than 24 months at the time of the high refugee influx period from 1993 to 1996 are more
)|||||||
|Husband forbid it|0|0.001|0.003|0.003|2,217|0.711|0.749|0.889|0.933|0.667|
||[0]|(0.004)|(0.003)|(0.003)|||||||
|Other|0.015|0.033**|‐0.003|0.014|2,217|0.035**|0.217|0.095*|0.08*|0.077*|
|Notes: Data from second follow‐up survey (June 20<br>standard errors (in parentheses) from an OLS regre<br>dummies (dummies for each triplet). ***, **, * ind|[0.121]<br>16). Colum<br>ssion of t<br>icate stati|(0.015)<br>n 1: Stand<br>he firm o<br>stical sign|(0.01)<br>ard devi<br>wner/firm<br>ificance|(0.009)<br>ations pre<br>characte<br>at 1, 5 an|sente<br>ristic o<br>d 10%.|d in bra<br>n treat<br>|ckets. Col<br>ment dum|umns 2‐<br>mies, co|4: coefficien<br>ntrolling for|ts and<br>strata|

49