rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
- Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A Osborne. 2017. “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?” _Technological forecasting and social change_ 114:254– 280.

- Gal, Peter, Giuseppe Nicoletti, Theodore Renault, Stéphane Sorbe, and Christina Timiliotis. 2019. “Digitalisation and productivity: in search of the holy grail–firm-level empirical evidence from EU countries.” _OECD Economics Department_ Working Paper No. 1533.

- Goldfarb, Avi, and Catherine Tucker. 2019. “Digital economics.” _Journal of Economic Literature_ 57 (1): 3–43.

- Gordon, Robert J. 2015. “Secular stagnation: a supply-side view.” _American Economic Review_ 105 (5): 54–59.

- ~~.~~ 2017. _The rise and fall of American growth: the US standard of living since the civil_

- _war._ Vol. 70. Princeton University Press.

- Hall, B, and P Monhen. 2013. “Innovation and productivity: an update.” _Eurasian Business Review:_ 47–65.

- Hatzius, Jan, and Kris Dawsey. 2015. “Doing the sums on productivity paradox v2. 0.” _Goldman Sachs US Economics Analyst_ 15/30.

- Helpman, Elhanan, and Manuel Trajtenberg. 1996. “Diffusion of general purpose technologies.” _National Bureau of Economic Research_ Working Paper No. 5773.

- Hjort, Jonas, and Jonas Poulsen. 2019. “The arrival of fast internet and employment in Africa.” _American Economic Review_ 109 (3): 1032–79.

- Iacovone, Leonardo, and Mariana Pereira-López. 2018. “ICT adoption and wage inequality: evidence from Mexican firms.” _World Bank Group Policy Research_ Working Paper No. 8298.

36
discern it for a variety of reasons (we are underpowered; we have not measured the relevant traits well; local bureaucrats may be strategically appointed by national bureaucrats and politicians, making bureaucrat traits more endogenous to district characteristics which directly predict service delivery.) The one result that is revealed systematically by the data is that political quality (and specifically, the characteristic of integrity) matters significantly for the productivity of bureaucratic organizations.

All results presented so far document how politicians’ integrity correlates with overall health scores. The details of the health service delivery index construction are presented in Annex 9.3, but it’s reasonable to assert that the weights attributed to each of the com23
4 illustrates that water deprivation is the largest though slowly decreasing personal concern for the bestoff children in Nigeria. On the other hand, up until wave 3 rising shares of children at the top of the consumption distribution are severely shelter deprived. Also, the share of sanitation deprived children at the top of the income distribution displays a rising pattern though with shares in wave 3 already lower again than in wave 2. This may suggest that monetary and deprivation-based poverty may be in large shares transient and during the second wave potentially affected by the economic crisis.

Overall, the results in Table 4 however suggest that the majority of the children in top income households still facing at least one deprivation, seem to be facing just one deprivation, as the share of children facing more than one, thus at least two deprivations is much lower. Moreover, results not presented here show that no children in the top 10 percent income level are deprived along all dimensions. Hence, even though still a remarkable share of children at the top of the income distribution is severely deprived on some dimension, the extensiveness of multi-dimensional deprivation-based poverty rises with lower income. This further stresses the importance to look beyond monetary poverty. Results in Table A.2 display unweighted observations. Comparing the total number of individuals in each income group with the column of missing information, however stresses the need to treat especially the results of GHS wave 1 with caution, as up to 20 percent of the individuals in the respective wave’s income categories have been excluded given the lack of information on one or more deprivations.

Table 4: Deprivation Status among children living in top consumption level households (weighted)

|||||||**Multi-Dimensional Pove**<br>**At least one**|**rty in %**<br>**At least one**|**At least one**||
|---|---|---|---|-
|22,667|22,667|22,967|22,735|22,735|
|R-squared|0.229|0.272|0.272|0.233|0.274|0.274|

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

Note: The standard errors are adjusted for emigration cohort clustering. The independent variables include marital status, gender, education, experience, and experience-squared. They also include occupation and sector fixed effects, as indicated.

Another concern is the possibility of reverse causality. As explained in Mishra (2007), if lower wages promote emigration, then this biases the estimated coefficient of emigration. Our use of individual data on wages from 2006 combined with emigration data on workers who mostly left during the _preceding_ years avoids the possibility of reverse causality due to contemporaneous changes in emigration and wages, though this still leaves the possibility of reverse causality due to _persistent_ changes in wages. However, if reverse causality is an issue, it means that if anything, we likely underestimate the impact of emigration on wages. The results here could then be treated as lower bound estimates.

# _Differences across Economic Sectors_

There are a few other reasons why the baseline results should be interpreted with caution. Equation (1) assumes the emigration of labor force is exogenous to the variation in monthly wages. Second, the emigration-induced labor shock is assumed to be a national 13
# variables obtained from the previous double orthogonalization step.

This approach provides us with multiple layers of robustness to ensure the plausibility of the unconfoundedness assumption. First, weather shocks are generally assumed to be random, and this is why they are often used as instrumental variables (e.g., Kleemans & Magruder, 2018; Miguel et al., 2004).<sup>15</sup> Second, the SPEI is normalized with respect to normal local conditions, thus filtering out heterogeneity due to different local averages. On top of this, the double orthogonalization approach we adopt before treatment effect estimation eliminates any residual source of confounding effects and omitted variable bias. Lastly, all the regression forests are cluster-robust since we explicitly account for household clusters at all estimation steps.

After applying orthogonalization, we proceed with the estimation of CATEs. Specifically, based on the current knowledge and scientific evidence about the key transmission channels of the climate-migration nexus (Cattaneo et al., 2019; Letta et al., 2023), the following vector _X_ of observable characteristics enters the CATE estimation model:

- Household asset index<sup>16</sup>

- Lagged GS-SPEI (reversed)

- _In situ_ adaptive capacity score<sup>17</sup>

- Annual total consumption per capita (logged)

- Share of adult members with tertiary education

All the conditioning factors are measured at baseline, i.e., in the preceding wave of the panel, so they are rigorously exogenous with respect to the treatment. The asset index (which provides an indication of household's wealth relative to others in the survey) and consumption account for

> 15 In the climate panel econometrics literature, it is common practice to simply regress the outcome of interest on the set of weather variables plus a full set of unit fixed effects and time dummies or trends (Dell et al., 2014; Hsiang, 2016).

> 16 The construction of the asset index follows the approach of Aiken et al. (2023
Diversification and Resource Management: Refocusing the Role of Agriculture? Dartmouth Publishing, Aldershot, UK.

- Folbre, N., 1984. Market Opportunities, Genetic Endowments, and Intrafamily Resource Distribution: Comment. American Economic Review 74, 518–20.

- Food and Agriculture Organization, 2009. Human Nutrition in the Developing World. Rome.

- Foster, A., 1998. Marriage Market Selection and Human Capital Allocations in Rural Bangladesh, mimeo, University of Pennsylvania.

Government of Bangladesh, 1995. Bangladesh Country Paper on Nutrition. Dhaka.

- Government of Bangladesh, 1997. Bangladesh National Plan of Action for Nutrition. Dhaka.

- Haddad, L., Hoddinott, J., Alderman, H., 1997. Intrahousehold Resource Allocation in Developing Countries: Methods, Models, and Policy. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD.

- Hallman, K., 2003. Mother-Father Resources, Marriage Payments, and Girl-Boy Health in Rural Bangladesh. In: Quisumbing, A. R. (Ed.), Household Decisions, Gender, and Development. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.

- Hoddinott, J., Haddad, L., 1995. Does Female Income Share Influence Household Expenditure? Evidence from Cote D’Ivoire. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 57, 77–95.

- IFRPI-BIDS-INFS, 1998. Commercial Vegetable and Polyculture Fish Production in Bangladesh: Their Impacts on Income, Household Resource Allocation, and Nutrition. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Dhaka, and Institute of Nutrition and Food Science, Dhaka.

- Leibenstein, H. A., 1957. Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth. Wiley, New York.

- Lundberg, S., Pollak, R. A., Wales, T. J., 1997. Do Husband and Wives Pool Their Resources? Evidence From the U.K. Child Benefits. Journal of Human Resources 32 (3), 463–
Policy Research Working Paper 6134

# **Abstract**

This study investigates the choice of occupational focus versus diversification between household members in rural Bangladesh as an autonomous and proactive adaptation strategy against ex ante local rainfall variability risks. The analysis combines nationally representative household level survey data with historical climate variability information at the Upazila level. The authors note that flood prone Upazilas may face reduced risks from local rainfall variability as compared with nonflood prone Upazilas. They find that two members of the same household are less likely to be self-employed in agriculture if they live in an area with high local rainfall variability. However, the occupational diversification strategy comes at a cost to households in terms of consumption welfare. The paper considers the effects of three policy actions, providing access to credit, safety net, and market. Access to market appears to be more effective in reducing the likelihood of costly within-household occupational diversification as an ex ante climate riskreducing strategy as compared with access to credit and safety net.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Equity Unit, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http:// econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at eskoufias@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent
the manufacture of precious and non-ferrous metal (mainly aluminum). As exports started expanding after the independence of the country in 1992, the share of aluminum in total export declined from more than 80 percent to less than 25 percent in 1997, mainly due to the civil war as world prices for aluminum were trending up between $1,200 and $1,600 per ton during that period. Then the share of aluminum started to increase again, to stabilize at around 70 percent of total export since 2008. Add to that farming activities and you cover more than 80 percent of the country’s total trade.

Other sectors contribute moderately to Tajikistan exports: manufacture of textile, manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, manufacture of food and beverages and scrap metal. The manufacture of textile is mainly yarns and cotton fabrics produced from cotton mainly grown in the 3 We use the third revision of the STIC trade classification along with its corresponding ISIC sector classification. The 5-digit STIC and their corresponding 4-digit ISIC classifications are used.

4
POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 2491

# Summary findings

There are concerns that trade reform and globalization will increase the uncertainty that the average worker, especially the relatively unskilled worker, faces. The increased competitiveness of product markets and greater access to foreign inputs, the argument goes, will lead to more elastic demand for workers. This may have adverse consequences for both labor market volatility and wage dispersion.

Fajnzylber and Maloney argue that while the case that trade liberalization should increase own-wage elasticities may be broadly compelling for competitive importcompeting industries, it is less so for imperfectly competitive, nontradable, or export industries. They test the hypothesis using establishment-level panel data from three countries with periods of liberalization.

The data provide only mixed support for the idea that trade liberalization has an impact on own-wage elasticities. No consistent patterns emerge.

If globalization is making the lives of workers more insecure, it is probably working through some other mechanism.

This paper-a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management<sup>Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean</sup> Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to study the impact of liberalization<sup>on labor market risk. Copies of the paper</sup> are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington,<sup>DC 20433. Please contact Tania Gomez, room</sup> 18-102, telephone 202-473-2127, fax 202-522-0054, email address<sup>tgomez@worldbank.org. Policy Research Working</sup> Papers are also posted on the Web at www.worldbank.org/research/workingpapers.<sup>William Maloney may be contacted</sup> at wmaloney@worldbank.org. November 2000. (43<sup>pages)</sup> _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work_<sup>_in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about_</sup> _development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly,_<sup>_even if
90$ International Poverty Line) <!-- Start of picture text --> Rural-Urban Poverty Rates - GHS North-South Poverty Rates - GHS<br>(1.90$ International Poverty Line) (1.90$ International Poverty Line)<br>80% 80%<br>70% 70%<br>60% 60%<br>50% 50%<br>40% 40%<br>30% 30%<br>20% 20%<br>10% 10%<br>0%<br>0%<br>Wave 1_R Wave 2_R Wave 3_R Wave 1_N Wave 2_N Wave 3_N<br>Wave 1_U Wave 2_U Wave 3_U Wave 1_S Wave 2_S Wave 3_S<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Authors’ estimations based on GHS Wave 1-3. Note: Individuals with missing age were dropped from the analysis.

Looking beyond national aggregates, Figure 5a presents a breakdown by region and child age group throughout the waves. Figures 5 b and c further differentiate between rural and urban sector in each 15
# **V. How to mitigate the procyclicality bias: Policy options budget composition, decentralization, and fiscal rules**

# **_Top-down solution: Fiscal rules_**

This section explores the correlation between the procyclical bias and the existence of fiscal rules and some of their features.<sup>13</sup> National fiscal rules are generally recognized to be more effective than supranational fiscal rules (Tapsoba, 2012). Indeed, supranational rules generally suffer from a problem of insufficient enforcement and compliance. Fiscal rules (FRs) are often criticized to amplify the procyclical bias,<sup>14</sup> but Guerguil et al. (2016) suggest that the design of the rules matters. Based on the fiscal rules data set from the Fiscal Affairs Department, we consider several characteristics of the national FRs, namely (i) if a fiscal council also exists; (ii) the presence of effective monitoring mechanisms; (iii) the presence of effective enforcement mechanisms; (iv) the coverage of general government for the rules; (v) the existence of a written legal basis for the rules (statutory or constitutional); (vi) the presence of escape clauses; and (vii) the presence of other kind of flexibility - investment-friendly rules and cyclically-adjusted rules (see Guerguil et al., 2016). The comparison of the procyclicality bias between countries with and without these features shows (Table C.1 and Figure C.3) that countries with national FRs have a lower procyclical bias, though still positive. The other characteristics that show statistically significant differences are (i) fiscal councils; (ii) monitoring mechanisms; (iii) enforcement mechanisms; (iv) a written legal basis; (v) the presence of escape clauses, and (vi) flexibility features are associated with less procyclicality than non-FR countries, highlighting the relevance of adequate design of national FRs to mitigate procyclicality.

# **[insert Table C.1 and Figure C.1]
integrated into various new applications, such as search engines or devices like Siri as announced by Apple, the indirect usage of generative AI websites—such as traffic via APIs—cannot be captured by this dataset.

# **3 The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI**

Artificial Intelligence (AI) broadly refers to systems or machines that mimic human intelligence to perform tasks. Generative AI, a specific subset of AI, involves algorithms that create new content—whether text, code, images, audio, videos, and more—drawing from extensive datasets to generate outputs that were not explicitly programmed. The study of AI has been ongoing for

> 2The Google Trends index reflects global weekly searches for the keyword “ChatGPT” from November 2022 to March 2024. Further details are provided in Section 7.

9
Belderbos, R. 1997. “Antidumping and Tariff Jumping: Japanese Firms DFI in the European Union and the United States.” _Review of World Economics_ (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) 133 (3): 419-45.

Blonigen, B. and C. Bown. 2003. “Antidumping and Retaliation Threats.” _Journal of International Economics_ 60 (2): 249-73.

Blonigen, B. and T.J. Prusa. 2003. “Antidumping.” In _Handbook of International Trade_ , ed. E.K. Choi and J. Harrigan, 258-84. Oxford, U.K. and Cambridge, MA: Blackwell Publishers.

Bown, C. 2010. Global Antidumping Database. Washington, DC: http://econ.worldbank.org/ttbd/gad.

Bown, C. and Crowley M. 2006. “Policy Externalities: How US Antidumping Affects Japanese Exports to the EU.” _European Journal of Political Economy_ 22 (3): 696-714.

Feinberg, R. and K. Reynolds. 2006. “The Spread of Antidumping Regimes and the Role of Retaliation in Filings.” _Southern Economic Journal 72_ (4): 877-90.

Francois, J. F. and G. Niels. 2004. Political Influence in a New Antidumping Regime: Evidence from Mexico. Timbergen Institute Working Paper No. TI 2004-011/2.

Ganguli, B. 2008. “The Trade Effects of Indian Antidumping Actions.” _Review of International Economics_ 16 (5): 930-941.

Hallak, J. C. and J. Sivadasan. 2008. “Productivity, Quality and Exporting Behavior under Minimum Quality Constraints." MPRA Paper 24146, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Hallak, J. C. 2006. “Product Quality and the Direction of Trade.” _Journal of International Economics_ 68 (1) :238-65.

Hansen, J. and J. Nielsen. 2009. “Dumping and Injury Margins in Markets with Horizontal as well as Vertical Product Differentiation.” _Journal of Industry, Competition and
explained by transportation costs for inputs since it is more expensive to buy specialized inputs in countries that are far away. The high cost of using far away inputs is especially true of business services that are not provided locally, as Marshall (1988) shows that in three regions in the United Kingdom (Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester) almost 80 percent of the services purchased by manufacturers were bought from suppliers within the same region. He cites studies which show that firm performance is enhanced by the local availability of producer services. In developing countries, McKee (1988) argues that the local availability of producer services is very important for the development of leading industrial sectors.

# **Services Performance in Eastern Europe and Central Asia**

At the beginning of the transition in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, measures of services performance for the transition countries indicate that services performance was extremely poor.<sup>**8**</sup> Although the transition countries have made considerable progress in services sector performance since 1989, according to the ―Transition Indicators‖ of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the average level of services sector performance in the transition countries remains considerably below the level of industrialized market economies. The EBRD Transition Indicators, however, show a rather diverse picture regarding the liberalization of the transition countries. Although there are clearly a few exceptions, these countries fit the following pattern. Those countries that have acceded to both the WTO and the European Union, such as Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries show the greatest degree of liberalization and are not far off from advanced industrial market economies on many of the measures of services liberalization. Those who have acceded to the WTO, but not

> 8 See the Transition indicators of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Available at: http://www.ebrd.com/pages/research/economics/data/macro.shtml#ti

7
early stages of India’s import liberalization (tariff reduction), and the second was initiation of local production following industrial delicensing policies.<sup>22</sup> However, the wave of economic liberalization in India that led risk, and more so among families with firstborn girls (who are more treated). However, maternal mortality is numerically small and the share of maternal mortality associated with abortion even smaller; so, any resulting bias is unlikely to drive our findings. We, nevertheless, considered the direction of any such bias. If, as observed in Jha et al. (2006) and Bhalotra and Cochrane (2010), high-SES women are more likely to commit sex-selection then, given that their children face lower mortality risks, our estimates of EFM decline will tend to be conservative. However, this downward bias may be somewhat offset if low-SES women, even with lower take up of abortion, are more likely to die of abortion.

20NFHS-1, 2, and 3 collected health investments for, respectively, the last three children born after January 1988, the last two children born after January 1995, and all children born after January 2001.

> 21REDS is restricted to rural women from 16 major states. To the extent that deceased children are likely to have received lower health investments than surviving children and (as we show) excess girl mortality was higher during the pre-ultrasound period than in the post-ultrasound years, the exclusion of deceased children will tend to bias the estimated effects downward. In this sense, the estimates we present are conservative. Since REDS data does not report the year of birth or death for children that did not survive until the year of survey, we cannot perform a bounding exercise for this bias. However, our results for postnatal health investments using NFHS data, that does not suffer from this issue, are broadly similar.

> 22We do not use measures of state-specific penetration or adoption as they would be endogenous; see Jayachandran et al. (2010) for a similar