rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
We focus on management for explaining the heterogeneity in performance of firms in Croatia for the following reasons: _First_ , management practices are strongly correlated with firm productivity in several countries (e.g. US, Russia, Mexico, Pakistan), and is robust to controlling for many other factors associated with productivity (e.g. exports, innovation etc.). _Second_ , while a frontier topic globally, there exists little evidence on managerial practices of firms in Croatia and the relationship between management and productivity. For instance, there is some evidence on management in countries from the Europe and Central Asia region, where Bloom et al (2011) find a strong association between managerial practices and firm performance but this study excludes Croatia.<sup>3</sup> _Three,_ given the strong association with firm performance, it remains a challenge to understand the drivers of management and why these practices do not diffuse more readily. We hope that our results will help shape a broader operational program in Croatia on firm-level interventions to improve management.

To quantify the importance of management for the performance of firms in Croatia, we conducted a survey on firm capabilities in Croatia, including a module for capturing management capabilities. Through this survey, we collected information on 727 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in manufacturing and services sector. The survey was conducted between January and June 2019. Financial Agency (FINA) database provides the sample frame for this survey, where the sample was stratified by region and sector. Firms were randomly sampled and interviewed face to face. Survey data on managerial practices, technology adoption and innovation is merged with other firm performance data such as profits, sales per employee and TFP from FINA database.<sup>4</sup> This paper benchmarks management quality of firms in Croatia against other countries such as the United States and quantifies the link between management capabilities and firm performance (e.g. productivity, profits, adoption of technology).

How are structured management practices measured? The
government’s underlying production of public goods. By buying relatively more from the pool of small firms, the government also buys from firms that are fundamentally less productive and thus charge higher prices. Under a constant government expenditure, this phenomenon inevitably translates into a higher price index paid by the government and a lower provision of public goods. When accounting for this reduction in the amount of real final goods provided by the government, the overall effect on GDP shrinks further from 1% to 0.05%.

We also conduct an alternative policy experiment that consists in promoting small firms’ participation by reducing the average size of contracts. This reform aims to mimic the European Commission’s strategy to increase the presence of small firms in public procurement in Europe.<sup>6</sup> Our main finding is that this alternative policy counterfactual would reach a higher number of small firms than in our preferred counterfactual but would actually generate a fall in aggregate GDP of 0.85%. The reason for this decline in GDP is that the reduction in incentives of relatively big firms to accumulate capital – the _long-run general equilibrium effect_ – is particularly high due to the fall in the average size of procurement contracts. Our results hence imply that the particular way in which the promotion of small firms is implemented is crucial to understand its aggregate effects.

# **1.1 Related literature**

There is practically no literature that analyzes how the microeconomic aspects of public procurement can affect the macroeconomy. One recent exception is Cox, Muller, Pasten, Schoenle and Weber (2021), who document several new facts using micro-level data on public procurement contracts awarded by the U.S federal government, and investigate how accounting for these facts— in particular that government spending is concentrated in sectors where prices are more sticky— can affect the short run fiscal transmission mechanism in a New Keynesian model. Our interest differs in that we focus on quantifying the long-run macroeconomic effects of different procurement allocation systems through their impact on firm dynamics
# **9. Performance Assessment**

A number of serious issues within the Murray-Darling River Basin have been identified, including water allocation (consumptive and environmental flows), water quality degradation (salinity and nutrients), and ecosystem health. These have been commonly recognized as interdependent, so a number of key programs have been adopted in interrelated fashion to address specific and general water resource problems.

- The Natural Resources Management Strategy (NRMS) was developed as an umbrella strategy to address many complex natural resource degradation issues on an integrated catchment management basis.  The NRMS focuses upon investigation and education to strengthen the knowledge and skill base.  The Integrated Catchment Management Policy Statement is a commitment by the community and governments of the MDB to do all that needs to be done to manage and use the resources of the Basin in a way that is ecologically sustainable.  It includes all resources, land, water, and riverine environment.

- The Living Murray initiative discussed earlier involves a vision of a “...healthy River Murray system, sustaining communities and preserving unique values.” (MDMBC 2002, p.5) This seven-year program features principles of adaptive management based around annual and detailed reviews of river health.  The Sustainable Rivers Audit will serve as a regular assessment of river health and ecological condition. This audit also includes performance indicators for macroinvertebrates, fishes, water quality, hydrology, and physical habitat.

- Steadily increasing diversions from the rivers of the Basin, raised concerns that basin water resources were allocated andthat current levels of water use were unsustainable.  The MDB Ministerial Council commissioned an audit of water use, which provided the first comprehensive assessment of basin-wide water use on a consistent basis.  This revealed that median flow to the sea had been reduced 79 percent from natural conditions by the high levels of diversions and that rates of growth in water diversions increased since 1988. The Independent Audit Groups’s 2000-01 review of cap implementation (MDMBC 2002) indicates that transparency in reporting concerning cap compliance is resulting in pressure upon communities
15 There is another reason that would tend to lead to enrollment ratios being seen as imperfect proxies even for changes in the human capital stock. Note that the stock of human capital is affected by net additions to the labor force, which is the difference between human capital embodied in the labor force entrants (inflows) and the human capital embodied in those who retire from the labor force (outflows). In other words, net human capital investment flows are the proper relevant measure of human capital investment flows. It should be clear that enrollment ratios are gross investment measures and that they proxy only for human capital inflows but not human capital outflows.

In light of the above, current school enrollment ratios are unlikely to have a contemporaneous and stable relationship to the stock of human capital embodied in the current productive labor force of an economy. As such, they would tend to be poor indicators of the human capital stock that exist within an economy.

# **Average Years of Schooling**

The above-mentioned deficiencies render the adult literacy rate and school enrollment ratios as inappropriate proxies for the economically productive human capital stock. As a result, the literature in recent years has turned to using the average years of schooling of the adult population as the most common measurement for the human capital stock<sup>24</sup> . Average years of schooling, or equivalently average educational attainment, is clearly a stock measure and actually reflects the accumulated educational investment embodied in the current labor force. Thus, in accord with the current literature, we use the average years of schooling as our basic indicator for the current productive human capital stock<sup>25</sup> .

There are two main global data sets on educational attainment. The first and probably more widely used data set is that of Barro and Lee (1993, 2000). This data set contains information on educational attainment for persons aged 15 years or older for many countries spanning the period 1960 to 2000 on a 5-year basis. There are 142 countries
cases.

Overall, the findings indicate that improved access to roads and electricity increases the probability to be employed (Table 4) in the Appendix and induce labor reallocation, with workers moving from farming and other low-skilled employment to skilled sectors. Finally the two types of infrastructure have greater in combination.

# **5.3 Agricultural employment in rural areas**

Given the essential role that agriculture plays in rural economies, we now focus on more detailed analysis of the effects of access to roads and electricity on agricultural employment. We analyze the separate and combined effects of greater proximity to these networks on agricultural jobs for populations of rural areas, using both the DHS and LSMS samples.

The regression results are presented in Table 6. They show that access to roads and electricity significantly decreases agricultural employment in rural areas. In the LSMS sample, being 10 km closer to a main road in a location along the grid decreases the likelihood of working in the farming sector by 5 percentage points (Column 1). Similarly, being 10 km closer to an electric grid in a location along a road decreases agricultural employment by nearly 9 percentage points. The marginal impact of being closer to a main road is smaller when closer to the grid, and vice versa. The estimated effects of these infrastructures are much larger in the DHS sample (Columns 2 and 3).

Improved access to electricity and to roads have a similar impact on the structure of occupations at the local level. Electricity and road access might create new job opportunities, mostly in services, providing a more reliable source of income than working in the agricultural sector. Individuals who have specific skills also construct a variable that indicates being employed in the farming sector, but this variable does not indicate whether an individual is self-employed or an employee because this information is not provided (Column 6).

24
Box 1. Wasted Potential—Indonesian women have higher levels of human capital, but work less, earn less, and promoted less (Contd.) This could be caused by a cultural influence that posits that the holder of public office should be male. In judicative bodies, women representatives in high ranking officials in the Supreme Court and Constitutional Court are very few, at 8.5 percent and 11.11 percent, respectively. Women judges account for only 27 percent of judges.<sup>24</sup> To ensure that human capital in Indonesia is not wasted, policy makers must ensure that women continue to have the potential to develop their human capital by addressing the various issues that prevent women from participating in the labor force, including improving access to quality childcare and ensuring that women are compensated fairly for their labor, and have the same opportunity for career progression.

# 3.3. Gender Disparity in School Completion

The most recent national household survey (Susenas 2019) indicates that about 4.4 million children and adolescents aged 7-18 are out of school, despite large improvements in enrollment in prior decades. There are large socioeconomic and geographical disparities: adolescents of junior secondary school age from the poorest households are more than four times more likely to be out of school than those from the wealthiest households. Geographically, the out-of-school rates at the district and province levels for junior secondary age range from 1.2 percent in Riau to 22 percent in Papua. The current out-of-school population is concentrated among children with disabilities, working children, married children, children from poor families and children living in rural, remote areas. Based on qualitative data collected from the districts, boys often complete junior secondary level and then drop out to become migrant workers, as per regulations of the Ministry of Manpower that stipulate a minimum requirement of junior secondary school completion for some jobs.

Female out-of-school prevalence (1.7 percent) is slightly lower than male (2.2 percent). Nearly 2 percent of urban females
0.004) (0.052)* R<sup>2</sup> =0.21, D.W. =1.71, F-stat = 6.54 (2.b) A(TFP1ow) = -0.007 - 0.003 DUM + 0.137A(IG / **IP)** - 0.092DUM* **A(IG** / lP) _(0.005)_ (0.009) _(0.050)*_ (0.037)* R<sup>2</sup> _=_ 0.40, D.W. = 1.51, F-stat = 4.66

Source: Same as Table 3 and Bosworth (1997). Each regression is based on 26 observations referring to annual data from 1970 to 1995. Terms in parentheses are standard errors. Asterisks indicate significance at 5%.

Finally, Chow tests pointed to a significant break in the mid- 1 980s. In contrast to the earlier results, this time the coefficients associated with the Dummy variables indicate a significant change in the relation between productivity and the publicprivate investment ratio. In particular, the results indicate that the positive relationship between both variables appears to have weakened after 1985. This comes as a surprise again: as discussed earlier, the existence of a positive relationship between both variables can be interpreted to imply a certain complementarity between public and private

> 0 Both measures of total factor productivity are aggregative concepts derived in the standard manner as a residual after netting out the contribution of factor accumulation. To derive these residuals, output is measured by GDP, labor input is measured by the economically active labor force, and the physical capital stock is constructed using a perpetual inventory method with two alternative depreciation rates; 6% (low) and 12% (high).
Figure A.10: Event study: effects on TFPR (binary measure of Germany’s specialization) <!-- Start of picture text --> .25<br>.15<br>.05<br>-.05<br>Year # Dummy above median<br>-.15<br>-.25<br>1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br><!-- End of picture text --> Notes: Authors’ calculations based on survey data from the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The plot is created by regressing the firm-level TFPR on a full set of time indicators interacted with a binary measure of Germany’s specialization that assigned 1 to sectors that have above median levels of output share or export share and controlling for firm and year fixed effects. Estimates are based on sample of firms with more than 50 employees. The omitted baseline is the last pre-treatment year, 2003. The estimation includes only firms established before 2004. The vertical bars indicates 95% confidence interval.

31
On the other hand, for this sub-sectoral group, the gender wage gap markedly increased, particularly for female workers at the lower end of the distribution. As seen in Figure A.7, the gender gap is actually larger within the low-productivity service sector than in the economy as a whole. Men earn on average 35-45 percent more than women, whereas the gap is 25 percent when looking at the entire economy. Estimating the gender gap across the distribution for this sector shows that women in the lower quantiles received particularly less than their male counterparts in 2012, with a 60 percent wage gap compared to 2007.

The realities of this sector point to the larger issues of Haiti’s labor market and its challenges to become more inclusive and productive. While informality continues to define the lower-productivity jobs, a reduction in the gaps between formal and informal could be encouraging. However, the growing gender gap for poor female workers of this sub-sector testifies to the persisting hurdles that the poor and vulnerable face in getting returns to their labor that will allow them to exit poverty within a reasonable horizon.

# **Box 3 - Making the Most of Existing Data in Haiti: The Way Forward**

Analyzing labor markets in Haiti has obvious limitations due to the paucity of data. The release of the 2012 ECVMAS considerably improved this situation and enabled the definition of a new baseline analysis of labor markets (and poverty) following the 2010 earthquake, and five years after the 2007 EEEI survey.

The recent release of the 2012 survey of Haitian firms opens further possibilities to refine the analysis, particularly through the use of a spatial lens. Both the ECVMAS and the firm census are geo-referenced, which enables expansion of the analysis to take into account the economic and labor context—both formal and informal.<sup>16</sup> This analysis could further be enhanced by including infrastructure data to identify patterns of firm locations, typologies, and synergies (such as sectors, size, status, and agglomeration effect).

Such analysis
environment, strengthening regulatory agencies, increasing their independence, etc.). The policy challenge is to achieve a balance between effective regulation and increasing the contestability of markets. Much has been done by transition countries to reform and adapt policies and regulatory regimes for service industries. Figure 3 plots three indicators of the extent of policy reform in banking, non-bank financial services and infrastructure. These indices, constructed by the EBRD, range from 0 to 4.3, and span the period 1990-2004.<sup>4</sup> The value of the indices is set at zero for 1989, so that the 2004 value provides a measure of the progress that has been made by countries in converging to “best practice” standards—measured by a maximum value of 4.3. Data are available annually for the 1990-2004 period.

**Figure 3:  Services Reform Index, 2004**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 4.0<br>3.5<br>CEE<br>3.0<br>SEE<br>2.5<br>FSU1<br>2.0<br>FSU2<br>1.5<br>FSU3<br>1.0<br>FSU4<br>0.5<br>0.0<br>Banking Non-Banking Infrastructure<br>Services<br>Index<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ EBRD (2004). See Figure 1 for definition of country groups.

Central and East European (CEE) and Baltic states (FSU1) have made the most progress in all three services policy areas. For the other transition countries there is significant variation across indices. SEE has advanced the most on reforms in banking and infrastructure, followed by the Caucasus (FSU3), while European CIS countries (FSU2) have done the most in the non-bank financial area, followed by SEE. The Central Asian republics have
Policy Research Working Paper 5705

# **Abstract**

This paper compares the _ex ante_ simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the _ex post_ estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive _ex ante_ estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that _ex ante_ predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of _ex post_ experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program _ex ante,_ in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.

This paper is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Equity Unit, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http:// econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at eskoufias@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
# 1. Introduction

Sexual violence is often used as a weapon of war, to control or exert power over a population. Gender-based violence (GBV) experienced in conflict affected areas varies across settings in terms of prevalence and perpetrator; women and girls bear the brunt of this violence (UN Women 2015). Rape in war and other forms of conflict-related GBV, including child sexual abuse, and sexual exploitation and their devastating consequences have been documented extensively (Vu et al. 2014; United Nations 2017; United Nations; World Bank 2018). High rates of intimate partner violence (IPV) have been recorded in several conflict settings (The Global Women’s Institute and the International Rescue Committee 2016) but data are limited, and few studies are able to isolate the association between conflict and IPV risk from other IPV risk factors. This study adds to the literature that examines the association between exposure to conflict and IPV controlling for other risk factors using data gathered in Nigeria at the time of the Boko Haram (BH) insurgency. It adds to a small but growing evidence base that underscores the need for interventions that respond to IPV and seek to transform the norms that legitimize interpersonal violence in conflict-affected settings.

The focus of this paper on IPV is important. IPV is the most common form of GBV<sup>1</sup> in both conflict and non-conflict settings (GIWPS and PRIO 2017). It is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as actions by an intimate partner or ex-partner that result in physical, sexual or psychological harm, including physical aggression, sexual coercion, psychological abuse and controlling behaviors (WHO 2014). Conflicts have been found to increase all forms of GBV (Clark et al. 2010), however IPV is under-reported and often receives less attention compared to sexual violence perpetrated by armed forces (Khawaja 2004; Mchale et al 2011; Pittaway 2005; Stark and Ager 2011; Vu et al 2014). Violence against women and girls is a violation of basic human
a dummy for whether or not fraud was recorded;<sup>22</sup> the log change in

> 20 In Madagascar, used cars are subject to specific clearance procedures and are examined by the service provider GasyNet.

> 21 While we use the expression “clearance time” to designate our outcome variable, note that the variable is actually capturing what could be called ‘assessment time’ which is the only time that is under the control of the inspector. The complete clearance time (time from registration to clearance) is not only attributable to customs but depends also on other agents such as importers and banks if payments need to be made for imported goods to be cleared and if time is taken to pick up the goods from the port. The use of a measure of time that is entirely under control of the customs agent is an improvement over the other studies in the literature, namely Volpe Martincus et al. (2015) and Fernandes et al. (2019).

> 22 Since we do not have direct measures of fraud, we have to rely on fraud records which could reflect a combination of true fraud, extortion, and reporting error. Given the widespread prevalence of undervaluation, it seems a priori reasonable to assume reported fraud is a good proxy for actual fraud.

15