rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
trade of those two countries.'<sup>**6**</sup> Thus, the exchange rates, both of the major currencies and

> the currencies under study, are calculated as the number of units of the currency necessary to purchase a weighted basket of strong currencies.<sup>7</sup>

# **II.b** Empirical Strategy

We use daily data in our empirical experiments.1<sup>8</sup> To assess how verifiable different exchange rate regimes are, we use explicit statistical tests that attempt to replicate those implicitly carried out **by** financial market participants to learn about the actions of the monetary authorities. For countries that have announced a basket band **-** such as Chile and Israel during the sample periods we use (examined in section III below), we seek to establish the amount of information (days) needed to reach a judgment on whether the data support the hypothesis that the exchange rate is following the announced regime. In the case of currencies that have declared their regime as a pure float **-** like post-crisis Mexico and Thailand (section IV below) **-** the purpose of the exercise is to offer a standard of comparison for the first set of currencies.

**A** test that fails to reject the announced regime for the currencies following basket bands, has low power if the same test also fails to reject an analogous hypothesis applied to floating currencies. We wish to see whether the public can distinguish the two sorts of policies statistically, rather than having to rely on the assumption that it can instantaneously intuit the true policy of their central bank.

> **16 A** second advantage of using **GDP** weights is that one does not need to obtain the full set of bilateral trade data and recompute a new set of weights for each country. But using bilateral trade weights is a possible extension for future research.
without having to visit a tax office<sup>31</sup> (the NTS, 2002). The rate of electronic tax filing through Home Tax System reached 96.9 percent for corporate income taxes, 79.8 percent for individual income taxes, and 78.6 percent for VAT in 2007 (the NTS, 2007), just before the introduction of compulsory ETI in 2008.

In addition to electronic tax administration, the Ministry of Finance and Economy and the NTS introduced a series of measures to encourage electronically traceable payments such as credit cards and check (debit) cards, thereby helping to broaden the tax base in B2C transactions, which are prone to falling into the informal economy. Tax incentives were given from 1999 to wage earners for using electronically traceable payment methods, which encouraged them to demand businesses to accept traceable payments. The basic incentive structure was to allow a predetermined fraction of purchases<sup>32</sup> made using credit or check cards as deduction from taxable wage income when they filed income tax returns. In 2005, cash payments under certain conditions were included as an electronically traceable payment. This worked by a consumer paying cash for goods and services and asking the merchant to issue electronic cash receipts through their payment terminals and transmit the transaction data to the NTS. An incentive that was similar to that given for credit card purchases was also given to this electronically traceable cash payment.

The use of electronically traceable payments in B2C transactions has been very successful in broadening the tax base. The number of transactions using credit cards soared 57.6 percent annually from 1998 to 2003.<sup>33</sup> In value terms, credit card usage increased at an annual rate of 47.7 percent during the same period.<sup>34</sup> As a result, since 2005, the total amount of credit card transactions relative to the GDP has exceeded 30 percent, the highest among the 23 member countries of the Committee on Payment and Settlement
S. experience with community development banking has demonstrated the stability and profitability of “popular banking.” It has also proved a source of investment for traditional commercial banks.

As in the U.S., future Mexican policy would benefit from more research. The ENDESFI survey was invaluable in providing a baseline survey of the use of financial services by households in Mexico City. Additional research should develop this further and also focus on the business models of financial institutions, both banks and non-banks that currently serve moderate-income households. This will provide policy makers and private sector institutions a better understanding of how moderate-income households obtain financial services, what they pay form then, and what might be done to lower the cost or improve the quality of these services.

57
Normalized utility can be re-expressed in terms of the endogenous variables<sup>14</sup> : At this point, it is interesting to notice that changes in the tax rates do not appear in the righthand side of the equation above. The intuition for this result is that the endogenous quantities already re‡ect variations in the tax rates. In other words, changes in the tax burden are already captured by the changes in consumption, investment and labor supply that they determined.

To make contact with the data, note that the national accounts at market prices de...ne nominal expenditure using prices as perceived from the demand side. Thus, equation (12) can be written exactly as before and still be consistent with standard national accounts data, where sc and si in b b yt = scct + si<sup>b</sup> it are inclusive of indirect taxes (subsidies) on consumption and investment. On the other hand, the national accounts measure factor payments as perceived by ...rms, before income taxes. Hence we can write: where sL and sK are the gross income shares of labor and capital respectively. Thus, the dataconsistent de...nition of the welfare residual with taxes needs to be based on a new de...nition of log PRt, where the shares of labor and capital returns are net of taxes. More speci...cally, equation (15) can be re-written as: In conclusion, after properly rede...ning ybt+s and log PRt, the results discussed in the second and the third section of the paper can be generalized in a model with distortionary time-varying taxes on consumption and investment goods and on the household income coming from labor, capital or ...nancial assets.

# 4.3 Government Expenditure

With some minor modi...cation, our framework can be extended to allow for the provision of public goods and services. We illustrate this under the assumption that government
# **Table 10. Teacher perceptions**

|_Dependent variable_|Sequence<br>vs.<br>Control<br>(1)|Coaches<br>vs.<br>Control<br>(2)|Wald test<br>(3)|
|---|---|---|---|
|A. I feel it the way I teach Science changes a lot|0.864***<br>(0.312)|0.953***<br>(0.247)|0.14<br>[0.708]|
|B. I like and/or enjoy more teaching Science than in<br>previous years|0.717**<br>(0.345)|0.974***<br>(0.307)|0.93<br>[0.334]|
|C. I feel that by implementing the ideas of this<br>training, my students learned more in comparison<br>with other groups and/or subjects|0.632<br>(0.333)|0.769**<br>(0.324)|0.30<br>[0.586]|
|D. I feel my students develop more skills than in<br>previous years|0.672**<br>(0.293)|0.876***<br>(0.306)|0.86<br>[0.354]|
|E. I taught more hours of Science classes|0.260<br>(0.247)|1.107***<br>(0.275)|18.33<br>[0.000]|

_Source:_ Author's analysis based on experimental data
inspectors with too few means cannot do much to enforce labor laws on a broad scale. At the central level, VSS has currently 15 inspectors to make sure that companies and workers pay their contributions. At district level, VSS has on average 6 full-time employees to collect revenues, distribute entitlements and inspect compliance. This is far too few to ensure the application of the Labor Code's progressive provisions.

A similar picture emerges from information collected at firm level. Evidence from MPDF (1999) shows that many of the country's larger private sector manufacturers hire workers without signing any contracts that require social insurance payments. The survey found that 6% of firms generally sign no contracts at all with their workers, while another 23% of firms sign only daily or monthly contracts. Furthermore, in the whole private manufacturing sector, seasonal and part-time workers (for whom no social security contribution need to be made) represent around 30% of the total labor force. A case study in Haiphong shows that among export-oriented manufacturers many companies appear to make some contributions to social insurance. But, here again, often less than 100 percent of the workforce is covered. In addition, the level of contribution is often lower than stipulated by the Labor Code: both firms and workers agree to pay respectively 15% and 5% of the mandatory minimum wage rather than of actual wages (Belser, 1999).

This suggests a low level of confidence in the social insurance system. In principle, workers should have an incentive to pay their contributions since they derive important benefits in case of workplace accident, occupational disease, or retirement. In practice, however, workers appear to prefer a higher take-home pay. There are at least three reasons that can explain such an attitude. The first is the fact that pensions are not adjusted for inflation. For private sector workers, the replacement rate of pensions is 75% of nominal wages. Thus, workers may expect their future benefits to be small in real terms. The second reason
been in place in Bogota for many years, with many adjustments made over time to increase its actual impact on private vehicle use, no such a scheme is yet in place in Buenos Aires although it has been contemplated for the City of Buenos Aires. In other words, while both central cities offered a “carrot” to non-motorized mobility in the form of well-developed cycleway infrastructure and public bikeshare systems, only Bogota also used a “stick” to deter private motorized vehicle use.

**_Figure 7:_** _Change in trips per person per day in October 2020 vs. 2019 on weekdays, by travelers’ income group (%)_

<!-- Start of picture text --> a. Bogota b. AMBA<br>-5.9<br>-7.5<br>-21.5<br>-23 -23<br>-24<br>-26.8 -26.4 -26 -27<br>-31<br>-32.2<br>Low-Low Low Low-Middle Middle Middle-High High Low-Low Low Low-Middle Middle Middle-High High<br>Source: Authors based on CDR data<br><!-- End of picture text --> Daily travel patterns and mobility behavior were significantly different for the socioeconomically vulnerable population. Especially in Bogotá, the most vulnerable population had less flexibility to change jobs, telework or modify their mobility behaviors when the mobility restrictions were introduced. While the TGR among people residing in the high socioeconomic strata neighborhoods declined by about 30 percent, it was only 6-8 percent below the 2019 level among the residents of low strata areas. The effect of socioeconomic level on the reduction in the number of trips was more intense for “compulsory mobility” specifically, likely associated with a greater propensity to adopt telework among the upper strata. In AMBA, the correlation between income and TGRs was comparatively much smaller, with all income groups reducing travel rates by between 23 and 31 percent.

*
Table (F10) Impacts of the Program on Relationships and MacArthur Ladder

|**Outcomes**|**Treatment**|**(se)**|**FDR**<br>**q-values**|**Control**<br>**mean**|**(sd)**|**N**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|No. of close Jordanian friends|-0.47|(0.51)|[0.56]|2.98|(3.66)|1,321|
|Met close Jordanian friend at child’s school|-0.01|(0.01)|[0.56]|0.00|(0.07)|1,249|
|Met close Jordanian friend as neighbor|-0.13*|(0.07)|[0.56]|0.52|(0.50)|1,321|
|Overwhelmed by fnancial needs of others (index)|0.26|(0.17)|[0.56]|-0.02|(1.01)|936|
|Current Macarthur rung (index)|-0.01|(0.12)|[0.84]|-0.01|(0.98)|1,321|
|Aspired Macarthur rung (index)|0.03|(0.13)|[0.84]|0.00|(1.00)|1,321|

**_Notes_** :

- The table shows the regression results on pre-specified main outcomes using the 2022-2023 phone survey data. Each row is its own dependent variable.

- N. of close Jordanian friends reports
percent of non-account-holders in that country cited cost as a reason for not having a formal account. But fixed fees and high costs of opening and maintaining accounts also often reflect lack of competition and underdeveloped physical or institutional infrastructure.

A second important barrier is documentation requirements. By limiting eligibility, these may exclude workers in the rural or informal sectors, who are less likely to have wage slips or formal proof of domicile. Because of legitimate concerns about fraud and money laundering, however, there is a reasonable limit to how much documentation requirements should be relaxed, and this line likely varies across countries.<sup>19</sup> Another important barrier to formal account ownership is proximity to a bank. For example, 47 percent of non-account-holders in Tanzania reported distance as a reason why they don’t have an account and Tanzania also ranks near the bottom among developing economies in bank branch penetration by area, averaging less than 0.5 bank branches per 1,000 square kilometers.

Trust in banks—or distrust—can constitute a barrier that is difficult to overcome, and suggested causes have been linked to cultural norms, local governance, economic crises, and uncertainty about the future (for example, Bjornskov, 2007; Guiso et al., 2004; Sapienza and Zingales, 2009). For example, respondents in the former Soviet Union—which has been plagued by episodes of government expropriation of bank assets—were almost three times as likely as adults in other regions to choose “[I] don’t trust banks” (31 percent).<sup>20</sup> These self-reported barriers and the information gathered by the survey on account use raise the following questions, which we can test econometrically: First, do we continue to find a

> 19 For additional information on documentation requirements and money laundering, see: <u>http://go.worldbank.org/0PHO7X3QA0.</u>

> 20 In the core Gallup World Poll questionnaire, respondents are
Page 38 and above, depending upon location. This is to be compared to the Rs 8 lakhs and above found in new formal subdivisions adhering to the GDCR in more distant areas.

This vernacular housing, as can be seen in Figure IV.8c constitutes a pleasant, if modest living environment, and is in no sense, a squalid slum. Land use surveys have shown that the great majority of the population of Ahmedabad (about 80%) is currently living in settlements that use land in way that differs significantly from the minimum standards established by law. Figures IV.8a and b show drawings of actual developments following patterns very common in Ahmedabad based on Google Earth images. Figure IV.9a is a layout proposal for a new development following the current GDCR to build affordable housing. Table IV.4 shows some of the key indicators for the three types of development.

**Table IV. 4 Key Indicators for Vernacular and** **<u>GDCR housing</u>**

||Vernacular Narol Naroda Rd.|GDCR Model|Modified<br>GDCR|
|---|---|---|---|
|Persons per Hectare|1958|1991|4200|
|Average Living Space per<br>Person|7.7 m2|5.2 m2|5.2 m2|
|Ratio of Vernacular to Others<br>Living space perperson||1.49|1.49|
|Ground Coverage|75%|45%|55%|

Table IV. 4 shows that one of the important cost drivers in the GCDR is the low maximum ground coverage in relation to vernacular neighborhoods. Units adhering to the GCDR are not necessarily larger, however. Units may actually be smaller in lower end formal developments than in vernacular homes. Also it is worth noting that low ground coverage limits in the land use regulations do NOT necessarily reduce the density of persons per hectare. Density is roughly the same
affected by the violent events in 1999.

The TLSS 2007 covered a sample of 4,477 households from all the 498 Sucos that form Timor Leste. The TLSS 2007 was undertaken over a period of 12 months between December 2007 and January 2008. The survey was in fact launched in March 2006 but had to be suspended due to the outbreak of internal violence in the country (mostly in Dili). The survey was resumed in January 2007 and conducted over one year.<sup>6</sup> The TLSS 2007 contains the usual information included in a comprehensive household survey. But contrary to the TLSS 2001, the 2007 household survey does not contain direct information on violence exposure. In order to identify individuals and households affected by the conflict, we make use of data on events and violations contained in the Human Rights Violations Database (HRVD). This dataset is part of the CAVR Timor-Leste Data Publication, developed jointly by the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG) and the

> 6  All households interviewed in 2006 (351 households) were revisited and re-interviewed in 2007. Those not found at the time of the new interview (34 households) were replaced with new households. For more information see <u>http://dne.mof.gov.tl/TLSLS/AboutTLSLS/index.htm.</u>

12
,<br>which in turn are fed into a household data module to capture the effects of macroeconomic policies on<br>poverty.|
|**Time:**<br>**Re**|About three months if a household survey and the macro-model are available.|
|**Skills:**|Experienced modelers with expertise in financial programming and advanced time-series econometrics.|
|**Supporting**<br>**software:**|EViews, Excel.|
|**Financial cost:**|Aside from any cost for the development of the macro-model or the household survey, about<br>US$25,000 to set out a new model.|
|**Limitations:**|As noted above, 123PRSP adopts several strategic simplifications in order to make the model user-<br>friendly. The disadvantage of adopting this approach is that the causal chain from macroeconomic<br>policies to poverty is in one direction only. In this regard, the model does not capture the feedback<br>effect of changes in the composition of demand (due to shifts in the distribution of income) on<br>macroeconomic balances.|
|**References and**<br>**applications:**|�<br>For an overview of the technique, see Devarajan and Go (2003).|

.

61
courses of longer duration with more developed curricula and modules for different topics. In this new system, a student registered for a single course of about 24 hours that covered the entire stock trading program. It is important to note that since the inception of the education initiative in 2008, students in any given course met in the same classroom with the same instructor for the entire duration of that course. As a result, the social interactions in our setting are well-defined by classmates and by the time of the course.

For each course, the syllabus and supporting training materials were designed directly by the CSE. The rigidity of the program protects the CSE from conflict of interest issues. For instance, since brokerage companies are members of the exchange, when an instructor covers topics such as trading costs, buying on margin, or short sales, the training material is designed to avoid references or examples that could encourage investors to use of one brokerage company over another.

# **3.2. DATA**

Our analysis draws on three primary sets of data. First, we obtained data from the CSE on courses and participants. Each record includes detailed information on the beginning and end date of the course, matriculated students, cost of tuition, total number of hours, location, and name and curriculum vitae of the instructor. Table 1, panel A shows summary statistics on these courses for each year in the sample. In accordance with CSE directives, courses between 2008 and 2012 were shorter and less expensive (averaging 10.8 hours and 110 USD) than courses in the last four years of the sample (averaging 22 hours and 276 USD). Classes had 16 students on average, with few classes of over 30 students, and some with as few as 10 students. One limitation is that the CSE did not collect demographic or socioeconomic information on students. We classify students by gender using their first and middle names. We also determine the age range of each student at the time of each course using
# **Identifying Aid Effectiveness Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States**

# Yoichiro ISHIHARA<sup>1</sup>

World Bank Email: yishihara@worldbank.org

**JEL:** F35, O10, O19

**Key Words** : Aid Effectiveness, the Paris Declaration Survey, Fragile and Conflict-Affected States **Sector Board** : Economic Policy (EPOL)

> 1 Yoichiro Ishihara (Sr. Economist, OPCS) is the author of this paper.  The author is grateful for comments from Steve Knack (Lead Economist, DECHD), Gary Milante (Sr. Economist, OPCFC) and Matthew Eldridge (JPA, OPCS).  The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.  This paper is still work in progress and therefore not for quotation.  Comments on this paper should be addressed to Yoichiro Ishihara (yishihara@worldbank.org)
waves of the RPED surveys. But we need more detailed survey data to enhance our understanding of investment dynamics. In particular, very limited information is available on the fixed costs of investment, the degree of reversibility or on the perceived risk that firms associate to a certain investment decision.

# **Unemployment and the labor market**

Recently, researchers have investigated the high rates of job creation and job destruction experienced by market economies.'<sup>2</sup> This continuous reallocation of resources, which occurs within industries and is somewhat obscured by the aggregate measures of unemployment, is an important part of economic adjustment and growth. The smoothness of these reallocation processes impacts economic performance by affecting the evolution of firms and industries and thus productivity growth. Reallocating jobs and factor inputs from less efficient to more efficient plants may help improve industry-level productivity in an environment with frictions and imperfect infornation (Baily, Hulten and Campbell 1992, and Olley and Pakes 1996). The same theoretical approach, which allows for frictions in reallocating workers and jobs, helps also to shed light on business cycle behavior of gross worker flows (Mortensen, 1994; Ramey and Watson, 1997).

World Bank coverage of employment dynamics is limited in part because the literature itself is limited. The firm-level data necessary to test hypotheses is not yet fully available even for industrialized economies. Moreover, empirical research on this front is hampered by the lack of micro time-series data. Some notable exceptions include the East Asia Competitiveness Survey, the RPED, and the data collected by Haltiwanger and Vodopivec in Poland and Estonia (1995).

The East Asia survey collects detailed infornation on the workforce, but has limited data on average tenure. The Labor section of the RPED questionnaire focuses on the structure of the workforce, but less on the dynamic aspect of employment flows. The RPED collects informnation on seasonal hires, apprentices, paid and unpaid relatives of the owner, but mainly for the second or third waves of the survey. In addition, the usefulness