rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
_i_ . The income is spent on aggregate private consumption _YC_ , on exogenous investment (savings) demand _I_<sup> ̄</sup> , and on exogenous government demand ( _G_<sup> ̄</sup> ).

Production _Yi_ of commodity _i_ by representative firm _i_ is given as a nested constantelasticity-of-substitution (CES) function that captures price-responsive substitution possibilities between factor and intermediate inputs (see Appendix B Figures 9 – 12). The choice of inputs, in particular the amount and composition of energy carriers, implicitly defines _μ_ for the firm in each sector. Production of final demand commodities enters final demands of the representative agent (private consumption _YC_ , investment demand _YI_ , and government demand _YG_ ). All other domestically produced goods are split subject to a constant-elasticityof-transformation (CET) function between export demand _Xi_ and input demand for the production of the Armington good _Ai_ . Armington production for each good _i_ is based on a CES technology that combines the domestically produced good and imports _Mi_ . Armington outputs _Ai_ in turn serve as intermediate inputs to the production _Yi_ of all commodities including final demands. The Armington assumption of product heterogeneity distinguishes goods by origin (Armington, 1969). This accommodates both imports and exports of the same commodity reflecting empirical evidence on the crosshauling of trade flows.

In international markets, our country of interest (in this case, the United States) is assumed to be a price taker, meaning changes in the country’s import and export volumes have no influence on international prices. In other words, export and import prices in foreign currency – the so-called terms of trade – are made exogenous. A balance-of-payment constraint requires that the total value of exports equal the total value of imports, accounting for an initial trade deficit or surplus.

As is customary in applied general equilibrium analysis, base-year data together with exogenous elasticities determine the free parameters of the functional forms. Our central case model parameterization deploys the most recent Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data (version 10) for the
# **Figure 10. Seasonal variation in staple crop prices in Sahelian countries according to World Food Programme data**

Panel A: Sorghum <!-- Start of picture text --> 350<br>300<br>250<br>200<br>150<br>100<br>50<br>0<br>Panel B: Millet<br>350<br>300<br>250<br>200<br>150<br>100<br>50<br>0<br>Burkina Faso Mali Niger Senegal Chad<br>Price (XOF/kilogram)<br>Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20<br>Price (XOF/kilogram)<br>Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: All prices are retail prices. Prices shown are national averages. Source: World Food Programme Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping Food Security Analysis tool and World Bank estimates.

The ‘consensual’ approach for measuring food insecurity used by the ‘ _Cadre Harmonisé_ ’ also suggests large swings in seasonal swings in Sahelian countries. The _Cadre Harmonisé_ is a framework that brings together food and nutrition security experts from a wide range of international agencies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to help synthesize a number of data sources, including food consumption surveys, nutrition surveys, the Household Economy Approach, or other information provided by agricultural surveys and market monitoring (Cadre Harmonisé, 2019). This framework is used 32
the 1920s “were men who led some armed band with which they conquered some territory and who then appointed themselves lords of that territory. They taxed the population heavily and pocketed much of the proceeds. The warlord Feng Yu-hsiang was noted for the exceptional extent to which he used his army for suppressing bandits and for his defeat of the relatively substantial army of the roving bandit, White Wolf.” The specific case of roving bandits cited by Olson occurred in central China’s Henan province features a vast plain. The lack of ruggedness on the border made the area difficult to defend. In fact, in the post-1916 period, warlords in Henan had an average length of control of just one year and 8 months. Olson explained the malign policies in Henan by the short-term nature of their reign. Such shorttermism might have stemmed from geographical factors.

We calculate terrain ruggedness along the border using the method in Nunn and Pugua (2012). For each prefecture, we calculate the ruggedness of the area within 10 kilometers of the border (See Appendix Figure A1 for details). As an illustration, ruggedness with value over two indicates that the benefits of cultivation fall below necessary costs (Food and Agriculture Organization 1993). In the Henan province, only 8.3% of borderlines fall into this category. For agriculture production, lack of ruggedness makes disaster relief easier.

# **3.2. Famines**

Data on famines come from The Chronicles of Famines in China’s Modern History (“The Chronicles” hereafter), the most comprehensive and reliable source about modern China’s famines. It covers all famines that had occurred in modern China before the collapse of the Republic of China in 1949.

Our main sample covers the period between 1912, the beginning of modern China, and 1926, when the coalition between the Nationalist Party and the Communists Party started to unify China by conquering most warlords through military campaigns. The Chronicles record 167 famines in 126 prefectures during this period. The vast majority of
population declines sharply with human population density would be expected to face greater extinction risk if the human population surged in its habitat.

Unfortunately, computing settlement sensitivity is complicated by well-known sampling biases in GBIF occurrence reporting, which is often a voluntary exercise that does not employ scientific sampling. In practice, reporting is more prevalent in accessible areas with higher incomes and larger populations (Garcia-Rosello et al. 2023; Borgelt et al. 2022; Isaac and Pocock 2015; Reddy sensitive, so that unbiased reporting would reveal a modestly-sloped negative relationship between its spatial density and human population density. However, population-biased reporting entails a countervailing effect which may producea statistical relationship that is positively sloped. While this complication is unavoidable, our methodology can still derive meaningful inferences from the data. Using the previously-described population raster, we assign each terrestrial raster cell to one of 15 scaled population groups. We overlay the population raster with species occurrence maps and compute total occurrences by population group for all terrestrial species. Total reported occurrences for species with extreme settlement sensitivity will decline continuously across population groups because the sensitivity effect dominates populationrelated reporting bias. Conversely, reporting bias will ensure that total occurrences increase continuously across population groups for species with modest or zero settlement sensitivity, as by settlement sensitivities that increase with human population density. Species with increasing sensitivity may exhibit trend reversal across population groups, with initial dominance for reporting bias ultimately superseded by dominance for settlement sensitivity.

For each species, we incorporate these factors by identifying the population group with the most reported occurrences. Relative settlement sensitivity is highest for group 6. For 432,278 terrestrial species, Figure 1 displays the distribution across population groups. The highest-sensitivity group (6) accounts for 123,875 species; counts increase in the first few groups and are relatively lower between population groups 9-15. This distribution illustrates a varied response where some high human settlement areas (population group 9-15).

We assign cell populations to 15 groups as follows (by interval upper limit):
Policy Research Working Paper 9208

# **Abstract**

This paper analyzes the factors that affect countries’ graduation from International Development Association (IDA) assistance and develops a statistical model of graduation. IDA provides concessional financing (credits, grants, and guarantees) to the world’s poorest countries to help reduce poverty and improve living standards. IDA’s eligibility criteria include (a) absence of International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) creditworthiness and (b) gross national income (GNI) per capita below the IDA operational cutoff. Following several ‘reverse graduations’ during the 1990s, the set of factors affecting graduation decisions broadened to include an assessment of the country’s macroeconomic prospects, risk of debt distress, vulnerability to shocks, institutional constraints, and levels of poverty and social indicators. Through a pooled logit estimation using panel data covering IDA-eligible countries for 1987–2016, the authors determine the factors that influenced IDA graduation decision making for FY1989–FY2018. They find that throughout the sample the probability of being a graduate is positively and statistically significantly associated with income per capita, creditworthiness, and country size. They account for the shift of policy after 1998. Using an interaction dummy variable to capture the pre-FY1999 period, they find that life expectancy, reduced poverty, urbanization, and institutional development have been positive and significant predictors of graduation status in the later period.

This paper is a product of the Development Finance Vice-Presidency. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at adobronogov@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully
was conservative.

_iv. Welfare Effects ofActual Reforms._ Using the<sup>same methodology, we estimated</sup> the welfare gains from the reforms that actually occurred<sup>compared to no reform at all.</sup> Since the quality of the data for 1990-1991 was<sup>poor because of hyperinflation, we relied</sup> largely on data from 1987 to 1989 to predict the behavior<sup>of SEDAPAL without reform</sup>
Low female labor forceparticipation|4|4|**8**|4|**8**|
|Wide regional differences and lack of convergence|3|4|7|3|6|
|**Dynamic Firms**||||||
|Lowperformance in technologyabsorption and innovation|4|2|6|4|**8**|
|Weak corporategovernance|4|2|6|2|6|
|Weak competitionpolicyand its enforcement|4|2|6|2|6|
|Beingstuck in small,mixed croppingagriculture|3|4|7|4|**7**|
|**Public Assets and Resources**||||||
|Congested|4|3|7|2|6|
|Decliningavailabilityof water|3|3|6|3|6|
|Energyconsumptions closelylinked with GDPgrowth|2|3|5|2|5|
|Inefficient land management|3|3|6|3|6|

Source: Adapted from World Bank (2016). Note: Scores in columns (2) and (3) are obtained from World Bank (2016) based on staff estimates and Turkey experts’ survey. The scores in columns (4) equal the sum of the scores in columns (2) and (3). The scores in column (5) are ours and the ones in column (6) equal the sum of the scores in columns (2) and (5).

The Turkish case is illustrated in Figure 1. As suggested by global data in the WEF on gender gaps, Turkey has made progress in closing the education gender gap (the female-male gaps in enrollment in secondary education and tertiary education are 99% and 87%,<sup>17</sup> respectively), but Turkey still has large gender gaps in labor force participation, formal employment and entrepreneurship. The female-male gender participation gap, assessed at 46
The fourth term, , is the share of disaster payouts spent in year on category . In this formulation, the total disaster risk payout need not be paid out in one year, thus EE ∑ is the tt RReepp<sup>ii</sup> ∗BB SS DD total payout equal to the sum of partial payments made over T years. Finally, the spending and finance TT EE tt=0 tt tt shares must sum to one = 1 and = 1 . BB = BB As modeled, the expenditure adjustment shares are set equal to the share of each observed in 2017. As ∑ffDDnnii<sup>ii</sup> ∑RReeppii<sup>ii</sup> a result, in the absence of risk management spending, in the steady state spending shares will be constant at those 2017 rates. The term determines from what categories of expenditure risk management strategies are paid and in what proportion. To the extent these shares differ from 2017 tt ffDDnn<sup>ii</sup> AA the steady state expenditure shares deviate from 2017 . ii gg ii 4.2. Risk premium in government debt gg To reflect increased risk at higher interest rates, the interest paid on government debt is assumed to rise with the debt-to-GDP ratio in the previous year, ∗ + 0.02 ∗�<sup>D</sup> ∗100 −60�, EE<sup>SStt−1</sup> where is the government interest rate, rrtt = rr ∗ is the estimated interest rate at a 60 percent Debt to GDP tt−1 YY ratio, D EE is the government debt and is GDP. is estimated based on historical data for Jamaica. tt rr rr Governments have debt contracts with contractually agreed interest rates. To approximate the yield SStt YYtt rr<sup>∗</sup> curve, we calibrate the average interest rate on debt using a lag structure. The weights are roughly based on data on the actual debt maturity structure in
Pakistan found that community participation is crucial for developing ownership and for ensuring longterm sustainability of rural water supply projects (Haq, Hassan and Ahmad, 2014). Several studies have also highlighted the importance of capacity development and institutional support to ensure the longrun sustainability of these projects. An impact evaluation of small community water systems in Bolivia funded by the Bolivian Social Investment Fund found that training and capacity development of communities are crucial for improved performance of these schemes in terms of access and availability of water (Newman et. al., 2002). In Malawi, newer community driven rural water supply schemes were found to be performing better than the older ones, indicating poor sustainability of the schemes due to lack of institutional support (Kleemeier, 2000). In Suriname, socially appropriate technological choice along with involvement and support of the community in general and women in particular were found to be the factors crucial for success of community driven water supply projects (Smith, 2011).

While assessments of various participatory community driven water supply projects have found evidence supporting their success in improving service delivery, there is very little evidence on the relative effectiveness of community driven projects compared to traditional supply driven projects. A study of rural water supply schemes from ten states (including Kerala) in India found that community managed schemes performed ‘somewhat better’ than traditional supply driven schemes (Misra, 2008). Though the study did not focus on a detailed comparison, it found that compared to traditional supply driven schemes, community managed schemes experience less frequent breakdowns and also lesser proportion of beneficiary households report water shortage.

# 2.2 _Various Approaches to Rural Water Supply in Kerala_

According to the 2011 Population Census, Kerala is the home to 33.4 million people which constitutes about 2.8 percent of the total population in India. Although the state receives one of the highest levels of rainfall in the country, with an average of 3,000mm annually, the undulating terrain of the state drains most of the rainwater into the sea. Denudation
dependent from tourism revenues. The data on international tourism receipts (as a percentage of GDP) is collected from the WDI.<sup>18</sup> Finally, the extent of international capital flows across developing countries is alternatively measured by the Chinn-Ito index of financial openness (Chinn and Ito 2006 2008). This indicator is based on the presence (or lack thereof) of restrictions on cross-border financial transactions reported in the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions; namely, the existence of multiple exchange rates; the presence of restrictions on current account transactions; restrictions on capital account transactions, and regulatory requirements of the surrender of export proceeds.

_Health and Human Capital._ Our proxy of human capital is the human capital index (HCI), which reflects the distance of the human capital of the country relative to a benchmark of complete

> 17 Workers’ remittances are defined as the sum of: (1) workers’ remittances recorded under the heading “current transfers” in the current account of the balance of payments; (b) compensation of employees which includes wages, salaries, and other benefits of border, seasonal, and other nonresident workers (such as local staff of embassies) and which are recorded under the “income” subcategory of the current account; and (c) migrants’ transfers which are reported under “capital transfers” in the capital account of the IMF’s Balance of Payments Statistics. The calculations are based on data from the IMF Balance of Payments Statistics database and data releases from central banks, national statistical agencies, and World Bank country desks.

> 18 International tourism receipts are expenditures by international inbound visitors, including payments to national carriers for international transport. These receipts include any other prepayment made for goods or services received in the destination country. They may also include receipts from same-day visitors, except when these are important enough to justify separate classification. For some countries they do not include receipts for passenger transport items.

10
over time. Ducruet and Notteboom (2012) tackle the evolution of shipping networks using Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit data from 1996 and 2006. They argue that, over time, the shipping network converges to a structure with densely concentrated and connected neighborhoods of ports. These neighborhoods are distant from one another and are connected via hubs (see Appendix 6.1 for more details). Hoffmann and Hoffmann (2020) compare the global 2020 network structure of ports to that of 2006. One of their main findings is that the network center has shifted from Europe to Asia with the major shifts being associated with Chinese ports (e.g., Nansha, Ningbo, and Shekou).

The amount of market power affects the freight rates in two ways. First, the markup over the marginal cost of transportation increases in market power: According to Hummels et al. (2009) it is lower on thick routes with more carriers and greater traffic. Second, larger traffic prompts carriers to use larger vessels, which minimizes the average cost of transportation (Asturias, 2020; Ganapati et al., 2020). Both effects work in the same direction lowering the observed freight rates on thicker routes with larger traffic. Potentially, over-reliance on larger ports may increase the risk of the lack of resilience of global transportation system to various shocks, which should become a topic of future research explorations.

Containerized maritime transportation is very concentrated. In 2018, the top 9 carriers (Maersk, MSC, Cosco-OOCL, GMA CGM, Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, and Yang Ming) organized in three alliances controlled 80% of the market (Merk et al., 2018). Furthermore, there are many “thin” routes, i.e., routes served by either a single or very few carriers. Hummels et al. (2009) reported a high degree of the within-route concentration, with the majority of importer-exporter pairs served by three or fewer ships, often owned by a single carrier. Using BlueWater Research data
Note: Authors’ calculations using the average contributions of the employment and labor productivity to GDP growth (%Y=%L +%(Y/L)) over the period of 2000-2016 based on data from the WDI and ILO.

Second, Figure 7 shows the relationship between informality and value added per worker in the manufacturing and service sectors across countries. These data suggest that countries and sectors with higher labor productivity have less informality in both manufacturing and service sectors.

Figure 7. Informal Employment and Value Added per Labor in Manufacturing and Services <!-- Start of picture text --> Manufacturing<br> 70,000<br> 60,000<br> 50,000<br> 40,000<br> 30,000<br> 20,000<br> 10,000<br> -<br>0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00<br>Informal Employment Share in Total<br>Services<br> 35,000<br> 30,000<br> 25,000<br> 20,000<br> 15,000<br> 10,000<br> 5,000<br> -<br>0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00<br>Informal Employment Share in Total<br>Value added per labor, USD (2017)<br>Value added per labor, USD (2017)<br><!-- End of picture text --> To estimate the relationship between productivity growth and informality, the study follows the specification proposed by Maloney (2001) and runs the following regression model: 21
different types of resolutions within the same context.

Third, we validate out-of-sample predictions derived from a household survey against the census. Such validations are not commonly performed by studies using “bottom-up” methods (Wardrop et al., 2018), except Biljecki et al. (2016) and Harvey (2002). The estimates are more accurate than previous studies that make use of two-dimensional satellite data. Our out-of-sample _R_<sup>2</sup> of 0.78 is higher than the 0.72 reported for Australia (Harvey, 2002). Our median RE at 28% is lower than those reported by Biljecki et al. (2016) in the Netherlands, which ranges from 42% to 85.4%. These higher errors could be attributed to their usage of fewer satellite indicators, linear (rather than non-linear) regressions and simple (rather than stratified) random sampling for the survey.<sup>9</sup> Overall, the results demonstrate the feasibility of national statistics offices utilizing geospatial data in combination with frequently conducted surveys to produce accurate local population estimates in the between-census years and in areas where surveys are not conducted. Improved availability of such statistics would provide useful inputs into a wide variety of policy decisions. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: section 2 describes the data, section 3 presents the model, section 4 presents the results, and section 5 finally concludes the paper and discusses policy implications.

# **2 Data sources and description**

## **2.1 Population sources**

Our main measures of population density at the village level are the Census of Population and Housing, Sri Lanka, 2012, and the 2012-13 Sri Lankan Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). The HIES is a detailed survey of about 25,000 households in all the districts and sub-districts of Sri Lanka, but only covers about 2,421 of the total 14,103 villages of the country. The HIES follows a two-stage stratification process