rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
||
|Observations|1,380|145|386|1,971|
|Control group mean|0.273|0.283|0.136|0.155|
|p-val|0.270|0.325|||
|Controls|YES|YES|YES|YES|
|Clustered SE|YES|NO|NO|YES|
|Strata fxed effect|NO|YES|YES|YES|
|Time lag b/w interven-<br>tion and follow-up 1|12 months|12 months|18 months|12 months|
|Time lag b/w interven-<br>tion and follow-up 2|24 months|48 months|||

Notes: This table describes the average treatment effect of each intervention on the probability that women had a child post-treatment, estimated with a linear probability model. Standard errors are clustered at the randomization level. The controls include: number of children at baseline, marital status, highest level of education completed, age at baseline, age square, a dummy equal to one if the woman is household head, and household size. If there is no baseline (as in Benin and Ghana), the variable number of children at baseline corresponds to the number of children born before the beginning of the treatment built from midline household roster. We include stratification fixed effects when required. We control for time when there are two periods. *, **, *** denote significance at the 10, 5 and 1 percent levels respectively.

Table 5 presents impacts on women’s probability to have given birth to at least one child between the intervention and the follow-up survey. We include all surveys where a baseline was conducted (i.e., we exclude Benin and Ghana). Women assigned to receive DOT are 18
# Appendix 1: Cross national data availability and reliability

This appendix provides details on four aspects of the cross national regressions: data on health status, data on independent variables, data on health sector strategy, and functional form.

# a) Data on health status

The data used here are as reported by UNICEF (1992) except for the mortality rates for Zaire which are unbelievable: under-5 mortality rate for 1990 is reported as 130 and infant mortality rate as 79. These are replaced with the, more reliable, estimates reported in United Nations (1992) for 1984. These are 200 for under-5 mortality and 126 for infant mortality.

# b) Data on non-health sector variables

|_Income_|Real GDP per capita in 1995 international dollars (i.e. adjusted for<br>Purchasing Power Parity) are from the Penn World Tables 5.6.|
|---|---|
|_Education_|Average education levels for men and women over 15 are from Barro<br>and Lee (1996).|
|_Income inequality_|Gini coefficient as calculated by Deininger and Squire (1996) multiplied<br>by 100.|
|_Percent urban_|Percent of the country's population that lives in urban areas. From the<br>World Bank's Social Indicators of Development database.|
|_Predominantly_<br>_Muslim_|Dummy equal to one if over 90 percent of the country's population is<br>Muslim.|
|_Ethnolinguistic_<br>_fractionalization_|Index of ethnolinguistic fractionalization for 1960. Measures the<br>probability that two randomly selected people from a given country will<br>not belong to the same ethnolinguistic group as reported in Easterly and<br>Levine (1996).|
|_Tropical country_|Dummy equal to one if part of the country's territory lies within 20<br>degrees of the equator.|
|_Access to safe_<br>_water_|Percent of population with access to safe water. From
agricultural employment are among the largest. Nevertheless, data on work stoppages is also available over a longer reference period in Vietnam (not only the week prior to the survey), which shows a clear regressive gradient, with households in the poorer quintiles being significantly more likely to have been affected by job losses relative to those in wealthier ones (World Bank 2021b).

> 19 Vietnam is the second highest after PNG, in which 88 percent of bottom 20 workers were employed in agriculture prepandemic according to the HFPS. In PNG, however, agriculture was one of the most severely affected sectors.

13
# **Introduction**

China is now facing an unprecedented aging process, which is rapid, but at a low level of economic development and with shallow social safety nets. With the introduction of family planning policies in the 1970s that caused a plummet in the birth rate during the past few decades, and with the earlier “baby boom” generation who will soon pass their 60<sup>th</sup> birthday in the next 15-20 years, it is projected that the old-age dependency ratio will climb from the current 10 percent to 40 percent by 2050.<sup>1</sup> However, unlike the advanced industrialized countries such as the U.S. and European countries whose social safety nets covered the majority of the elderly before the aging of the population, China is aging at a relatively low level of development with many times lower per capita income and less-developed political and financial institutions.

In comparison with the old-age support system that is operating with fragmented infrastructure and a lack of comprehensive coverage, informal familial support has long been the most important source of help in low income countries. With its long history and culture, China has unique traditional family values that are especially strong in the rural areas. The deep-rooted Confucian “filial piety”, characterized by both financial and time transfers from children to their parents and the co-residence of multiple generations, has been a core feature of China’s informal old-age security system.

> 1 Source: “World Population Prospects,” United Nations, 2009.

2
Start of picture text -->  2005-2010  2005-2013  2005-2016<br> 100 y = 0.0623x + 3.505 100 y = 0.0772x + 1.6889 100 y = 0.101x + 3.6958<br> 80 80 80<br> 60 60 60<br> 40 40 40<br> 20 20 20<br> - - -<br>-200 - 200 400 600 800 -200 - 200 400 600 800 -200 - 200 400 600 800<br>-20 -20 -20<br>-40 -40 -40<br>-60 -60 -60<br>-80 -80 -80<br>-100 -100 -100<br>Change in X Change in X Change in X<br>Change in Z Change in Z Change in Z<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Prepared by the authors using data from the Bangladesh LFS.

Each sub-district in Bangladesh constitutes an observation in our regressions. Given lack of data on international trade at the sub-district level in Bangladesh, we use the approach proposed by Bartik (1991) that takes advantage of a concentration of production and local labor markets to assess the relationship between globalization and local labor market outcomes. In other words, we can compute a measure for sub-district exports based on the sub-district employment concentration in each exporting industry. We call this new variable our “trade exposure index”.

22
offered than those that do not know one. However, the country level death rate in the week before the individual was interviewed bears no correlation with vaccine acceptance. This suggests the importance of the information set the individual uses to assess the risk of COVID-19 and to decide about vaccination. Rather than the overall epidemiological situation, it is the immediate experience with the pandemic that is associated with increased willingness to get vaccinated.

# _Government policy response_

The stringency of government policy response to the pandemic appears to be positively associated with vaccine acceptance: the more stringent the measures are, the higher the willingness of individuals to take the vaccine. Each additional unit in the Oxford Stringency Index is associated to a 0.4 percentage point higher vaccine acceptance. Moving from percentile 25 in the distribution of the index within our sample (a value of 55.09) to percentile 75 (a value of 74.54) would be associated to a 7.8 percentage point increase in individual vaccine acceptance, a magnitude similar to that of personally knowing a positive COVID-19 case. Such a change in lockdown policies, however, would not be associated with an immediate increase in vaccine acceptance. The nature of the data at hand - including the exact day when the survey was carried out for each individual – allows us to assess the effect of actual _changes_ in the stringency index, which is also measured daily. Columns 3, 4 and 5 of Table 2 include as additional regressors the 1-day change, 7-day change and 14-day change of the stringency index respectively. The negative coefficients associated to the change variables indicate that when government policy changes, the effect on vaccine acceptance is not immediate. In particular, the coefficients associated to the 7-day and 14-day changes suggest that during that period the overall effect of an increase of one unit in the stringency index is 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively – lower than the 0.4 percentage point result in the longer term. In any case, column 6 suggests that there are diminishing marginal
# **Does Competition from Informal Firms Impact R&D by Formal SMEs? Evidence Using Firm-Level Survey Data**

By: Mohammad Amin*

-

Keywords: Informality, R&D, Competition, Firm, Developing countries JEL: O17, O12, O30

*Senior Economist, Enterprise Analysis Unit, World Bank, Washington DC. Email: <u>mamin@worldbank.org</u>

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.

<mark>I would like to thank Jorge Luis Rodriguez Meza for providing useful comments. All remaining errors are my own.</mark> <mark>I thank the Enterprise Analysis Unit of the Development Economics Global Indicators Department of the World Bank Group for making the data available.</mark>
6 resulting subsidy rates are shown in Appendix Table A3, along with information on the (relatively small) tariffs on cotton imports.<sup>3</sup> For the US it amounts to a production subsidy in 2001 of 40 percent. This may be conservative, as it compares with a recent projection for 2004-06 of 56 percent with the Step 2 program intact and 46 percent if it is repealed without re-instrumentation (Sumner 2005, Table 3).

The other modification to the GTAP protection database is to take account of the completion of the implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Textiles and Clothing by end-2004, at which time all trade-restricting quotas were abolished and were replaced by a tariff-only regime. We then recalibrate the model’s baseline by implementing that protection change, and the change in US cotton subsidy rates, before running the simulations described below.<sup>4</sup> receive a consumption subsidy to compensate for the price-raising effect of the export subsidies on cotton, the two elements in the Step 2 program sum to the equivalent of just a cotton production subsidy. That program’s payments amounted to one-seventh of total dollars of cotton supports during 2000-02 (Baffes 2005, Table 4) and, if it were not repealed, would amount to one-sixth during 2004-06 (Sumner 2005, Table 3). In any case they were found to be illegal recently by the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Panel and Appellate Body (WTO 2004b, 2005a). As a result, on 1 February 2006 the US Congress agreed to reform both components of the Step 2 program by 1 August 2006. How this reform impacts the market depends on the extent of re-instrumentation of that portion of the overall support, as discussed on Section 5 below. 3 No cotton subsidies are shown for China in the GTAP protection database, even though there have been some in past years. According to Huang, Rozelle and Chang (2004), the degree of protection varied from positive to negative during 2001 and the key intervention
but this effect is reduced in countries with higher scores on the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)’s index of Political Risk.<sup>9</sup> Another piece of the literature focuses on the institutional context in which public investment decisions are undertaken. Tanzi and Davoodi (1997) use a 1980-1995 panel dataset and find that higher levels of corruption are associated with higher levels of public investment, lower levels of operation and maintenance expenditure, and a lower level of infrastructure quality. In the same vein, Keefer and Knack (2007) investigate whether institutional quality is associated with higher levels of public investment. Using a 1974-1998 averaged cross-sectional dataset and an instrumental variables approach, the authors find that public investment is higher in countries with weak governance institutions or more limited checks and balances on governments. These results support the argument of Pritchett (2000) that cost and capital value of public investment are different concepts and that developing countries have created only little useful capital.

The specific linkage between institutional quality and volatility of capital spending has not been studied in the literature. However, Rodrik (2000), Quinn and Wooley (2001), and Mobarak (2005) all identify a negative relationship between democracy and volatility of economic growth across countries, and Dutt and Mobarak (2007) reveal that democracies are characterized by more stable policy choices. The idea is that the dispersion of decision-making authority (embedding a system of checks and balances, or veto-players) is a determinant of the stability observed in democracies, with respect to both policy and outcomes. The reasons are two. First, in a context of checks and balances policymakers need to obtain cooperation and approval of others. Second, such dispersion of authority mitigates the information problem, as

> 9 The Political Risk index includes the following dimensions: government stability, corruption, bureaucracy quality, law and order, and political conflict.

6
of section 4 by the analogous coefficient from the informality regressions. Taking our preferred speci fi cation, the parameters of interest are -3.48 for informal employment, -0.125 for log value added per employee and -0.045 for log wage (see table 2). Therefore, an increase in the proportion of informal employment by 1 percentage point leads to an increase in productivity of 3.59% (and since the proportion of illegal workers in the average fi rm in the sample is 23% this corresponds to an elasticity of productivity with respect to informal employment of 0.83) and an increase in wages of 1.29% (corresponding to an elasticity of 0.3). Taking the highest estimate for the effect of registration fi nes on informal labor from the instrumental variable speci fi cations in table 4 (which is -6.28) and the lowest estimate of the effect of registration fi nes on value added, from table 6 (which is -0.1), an increase in the proportion of informal employment by 1 percentage point leads to a decrease in productivity of 1.59% (corresponding to an elasticity of 0.37). The corresponding estimate for wages is -0.045<sup>44</sup> , which means that an increase in the proportion of informal employment by 1 percentage points leads to an increase in wages of 0.7% (an elasticity of 0.16). All of these are large in magnitude suggesting that labor fl exibility has very strong effects on fi rm performance.

An alternative way to compute these parameters is to estimate a regression of measures of performance on the fi rm’s informal employment instrumenting informality with enforcement.<sup>45</sup> In table 8 we present OLS and IV regressions of the effect of the proportion of informal workers hired by the fi rm on the different measures of fi rm performance (log value

> 44The corresponding table for the IV
in 2030_ .

- Chakravorty, U., Pelli, M., & Marchand, B. U. (2014). Does the quality of electricity matter? Evidence from rural India. _Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization_ , _107_ , 228–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.04.011

- Chatterjee, C., & Mozumder, P. (2015). Hurricane Wilma, utility disruption, and household wellbeing. _International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction_ , _14_ , 395–402. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.09.005

- Cifuentes, E., Suarez, L., Solano, M., & Santos, R. (2002). Diarrheal diseases in children and

- microbiological ground-water quality in a water reclamation site, Mexico City. _Epidemiology_ , _13_ (4), S171--S171.

- Cutter, S. L. (2017). The Perilous Nature of Food Supplies: Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, and Disaster Resilience. _Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development_ . https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2017.1252603

- Danilenko, A., van den Berg, C., Macheve, B., & Moffitt, L. J. (2014). _The IBNET Water Supply and Sanitation Blue Book 2014: The International Benchmarking Network for Water and Sanitation Utilities Databook_ . The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0276-8

- Dasso, R., Fernandez, F., & Ñopo, H. (2015). _Electrification and Educational Outcomes in Rural Peru_ . Retrieved from http://ftp.iza.org/dp8928.pdf

- Desbureaux, S., & Rodella, A. S. (2019). Drought in the city: The economic impact of water scarcity in Latin American metropolitan areas. _World
slight evidence of increased impact with greater duration. In particular, there is a 10 percent increase in the prevalence of positive coefficients between exposure of 4-12 months to 13+ months and an increase from 0.60 to 0.70 standard deviations of the outcomes with the same increase in exposure. On the other hand, the summary in the last two columns of Table 10 indicates substantial concentration of significant positive program impacts among younger children: 64 percent (or 41 of 64) of these impacts are for children two- or three-years old at the time of Round 3. The average magnitude of the impacts is 0.90 standard deviations for two-year olds and 0.49 standard deviations for three-year old, but only in the 0.24-0.29 range for children older than three.

# **5. Conclusion**

We analyze the effects of an important ECD initiative in a developing country setting. The individual parts of the package of services delivered by the program in the Philippines are generally not new, but the program has changed the country’s approach to ECD by linking sectoral policies that affect young children and by integrating interventions that include center-based and home-based programs. We use rich and detailed longitudinal information on children, their families and communities, as well as data on the program itself, to estimate treatment effects. The difference-in-difference propensity score matching methods we use allow impacts to vary by both exposure to the program and the ages of children while controlling for observed characteristics and unobserved characteristics that are fixed and display common trends between program and non-program areas. Our results provide important insights on the effectiveness of ECD interventions in this low income setting.

The findings suggest that the ECD program is benefiting children in important respects. We find significant positive intent-to-treat impacts on the majority of the indicators of child development that we consider, particularly those related to child cognitive, social, motor skills and language development as well as short-term nutritional status. The incorporation of information about the variation of program exposure and child age is valuable because
planned recruitment in 2016. Importantly, it is not a foregone conclusion that TTC graduates will apply for these civil service teaching jobs. Data from the 2017 Rwanda Labour Force Survey indicate that only 37 percent of recent TTC graduates were in teaching jobs, with 15 percent in non-teaching, salaried employment. This is not because the teacher labor market is tight; nationwide close to a quarter of vacancies created by a teacher leaving a school remain unfilled in the following school year (Zeitlin, 2020). A more plausible explanation is that the recent graduates in the outside sector earned a premium of close to 30 percent, making occupational choice after TTC a meaningful decision.

# **2.2 Experiment**

**Contract structure** The experiment was built around the comparison of two contracts paying a bonus on top of teacher salaries in each of the 2016 and 2017 school years, and was managed by Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) in coordination with REB. The first of these was a P4P contract, which paid RWF 100,000 (approximately 15 percent of annual salary) to the top 20 percent of upper-primary teachers within a district, as measured by a composite performance metric.<sup>8</sup> This metric equally weighted student learning alongside three measures of teachers’ inputs into the classroom (presence, lesson preparation, and observed pedagogy). The measure of learning was based on a pay-for-percentile scheme that makes student performance at all levels relevant to teacher rewards (Barlevy and Neal, 2012).<sup>9</sup> The 2016 performance award was conditional on remaining in post during the entire 2016 school year, and was to be paid early in 2017. Likewise, the 2017 performance award was conditional on remaining in post during the entire 2017 school year, and was to be paid early in 2018. The second was a fixed-wage (FW) contract that paid RWF 20,000 to all upper-primary teachers. This bonus was paid at the same time as the performance
# **Figures and Tables**

**Figure 1. Employment by Sector, 2000 and 2010**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Agriculture Industry Services<br>2000 2010<br>28 24 38 27<br>60 16 57 60 61 62 68<br>23 22<br>29<br>21 60 28 24 22<br>50 51 28<br>37 27<br>19 15 16 17<br>9.7<br>1 5.1<br>Brazil China India Russia South Brazil China India Russia South<br>Africa Africa<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: World Development Indicators. Note: Figures for Brazil and Russia are for 2009 rather than 2010.

26
started and the end of the contract period. At endline, we were able to interview 323 treated households and 776 control households. There was attrition of 47 households (4 percent): 10 treated, 37 control.

At both baseline and endline, we administered a household questionnaire to the person most knowledgeable about household matters, and an individual questionnaire to women enrolled as RMG and waitlist (control group) members. GBV experience was measured only at endline because we did not have enough time to pass a supplemental national ethics review for more sensitive data collection before the baseline survey.<sup>9</sup> A special audio-computer self-interviewing (ACASI) module was developed for administration of GBV questions in order to protect participants’ privacy.<sup>10</sup> Our team specifically designed

> 7 The baseline data collection took place after the work had started but before the first monthly payment had been made. It is plausible that we observe lower incomes in the treatment group because RMG women had to give up some other work in order to engage in RMGs.

> 8 Tables starting with A are in the Online Appendix.

> 9 We passed external IRB with HML IRB Research & Ethics and Lao PDR ethics review for both baseline and endline data collection.

> 10 It is common for neighbors, relatives, other family members to stop by when interviews are conducted. Given construction of the dwellings (very thin walls), even being in a closed room did not guarantee complete privacy, as one could hear the questions from outside or adjacent rooms.

7