rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
unskilled workers does have a positive correlation with the wage skill premium, suggesting that a wage curve-type of effect might depress the remuneration levels of unskilled workers more than that of skilled workers. There is no significant effect for the separate high school and dropout unemployment rate in Table 4.2.

Tables 4.1 and 4.2 also present evidence on the potential impact of minimum wages on the skill premium. The regressions in column 8 of Tables 4.1 and 4.2 include an index of minimum wage levels for each country as a dependent variable, available from 1995 onwards.<sup>18</sup> The results for the whole period under analysis indicate a negative but not statistically significant relationship between the level of minimum wages and the skilled-unskilled premium in the region, whereas the relationship is unexpectedly positive (though also not significantly different from zero) for the high school-dropout wage differential.

> 16 Net barter terms of trade index is calculated as the percentage ratio of the export unit value indexes to the import unit value indexes, measured relative to the base year 2000. Unit value indexes are based on data reported by countries that demonstrate consistency under UNCTAD quality controls, supplemented by UNCTAD’s estimates using the previous year’s trade values at the Standard International Trade Classification three-digit level as weights. To improve data coverage, especially for the latest periods, UNCTAD constructs a set of average prices indexes at the three-digit product classification of the Standard International Trade Classification revision 3 using UNCTAD’s Commodity Price Statistics, interna-tional and national sources, and UNCTAD secretariat estimates and calculates unit value indexes at the country level using the current year’s trade values as weights.

> 17 Bearing in mind the limitations of this type of cross country regressions and to avoid spurious correlations, the regressions should not be interpreted as estimating causal effects but only as multivariate correlates of the wage skill differentials.

> 18 The authors are grateful to Tim Gindling for providing the index of real minimum wage levels (based on ILO estimates)
show, at the city proper and prefecture level, respectively, that the elasticity of GDP with respect to light is significantly positive in a 1990/1992–2005 long difference specification.<sup>18</sup> The point estimate is very similar to the one for the global sample.

South Africa also has household income data in its 1996 and 2001 censuses that can be used to form an income panel for administrative units called magisterial districts (MD).<sup>19</sup> When lights and income are summed within 284 MD, the elasticity of changes decreasing proportionally with the cosine of latitude. The data are processed and distributed by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/dmsp/downloadV4composites.html. Accessed 22 January 2010.

> 17I am grateful to Vernon Henderson and Qinghua Zhang for providing the China evidence based on their work in progress with Nathaniel Baum-Snow, Loren Brandt, and Matthew Turner.

> 18The lights are from 1992 but the GDP data are from 1990—the closest year with good data.

> 19Produced by Statistics South Africa and distributed as: Minnesota Population Center. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), International: Version 6.1 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2011. https://international.ipums.org/. Accessed 28 April 2011. The 2007 census also includes household income data, but the smallest comparable geography in the IPUMS sample is the province, and there are only nine of them. The IPUMS data for both 1996 and

9
**Table 5 Povert** **<mark>y</mark> and Distributional Effects under the BaU and Canal Scenarios**

|WelfareIndicator|Observed<br>(2003)|BaU<br>2014|BaU<br>2020|Canal –<br>BaU<br>(2014)|Canal –<br>BaU<br>(2020)|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Average Real||||||
|Income|2,490|3,219|3,725|6|243|
|Poverty Headcount|Ratio (%)|||||
|Extreme|16.6|12.9|13.3|-0.07|0.0|
|Moderate|36.8|28.3|27.5|-0.08|-0.3|
|Poverty Gap (%)||||||
|Extreme|6.4|5.2|5.4|0.0|0.10|
|Moderate|15.2|11.9|12.0|0.0|0.06|
|Gini Coefficient|56.8|57.7|59.8|0.0|0.7|

* Notes: Authors‘ own estimation using data from LSMS 2003 and the results from the CGE-micosimulation model for Panama. The extreme and moderate poverty lines are equal to 533 Balboas and 953 Balboas, respectively, which correspond to the official poverty lines used by the government of Panama.

Labor reallocation, between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and, within the latter, between formal and informal activities also plays a relevant role in reshaping income distribution. In the BaU scenario, the process of urbanization mentioned in section 2 continues during the period 2003-2020 with the share of workers in nonagricultural activities increasing from
# **ARE  RETURNS TO**

# **PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CONSISTENT WITH RISKS  SINCE THE ASIAN CRISIS? ***

## Antonio Estache

(The World Bank and ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles) Maria Elena Pinglo (The World Bank)

#### **Abstract**

This paper presents a basic assessment of the financial performance of infrastructure service operators in developing countries. It relies on a new database of 120 companies put together to track the evolution of the cost of capital, the cost of equity and the return to equity for electricity, water and sanitation, railways and port operators in 31 developing countries distributed evenly across low-income, low-middle income and uppermiddle-income countries. The paper shows that between 1998 and 2002, the average cost of capital in developing countries varied from less than 11% to over 15% across regions and sectors while the cost of equity varied from around 13% to over 22%. Low-middle-income countries have recovered relatively well from the East Asia crisis, while low-income and upper-middle-income countries have seen their situation deteriorate since the crisis. At the regional level, the main story is that East Asia is recovering quite well from its crisis, and that the financial performance of the operators in Africa and Latin America has deteriorated. Eastern Europe and South Asia are doing relatively better but show a large volatility of returns over time and within sectors. At the sector level, the railways and the energy sectors have seen their performance deteriorate significantly over the period, while the water and port sectors have done relatively better. In all sectors and regions, the average return to equity has been lower than the cost of equity since the Asian crisis.

### World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3373, August 2004

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names
||||||
|full time,fixed term|0.0758|0.05403|0.05331|0.05355|0.05368|
|part time,open term|insignificant|0.01861|0.03671|0.01552|0.02267|
|part time,fixed term|0.07986|0.05371|0.0494|0.09214|0.06817|
|Self employed|-0.04452|-0.0263|-0.02742|insignificant|insignificant|

Source: Author‘s calculations based on CASE_2007 database and LFS databases for years 2003-2008 Notes: Base category for contract variable = full time, open term contract. All coefficients in dF/dX forms i.e. they represent the change in probability resulting from the unit change of independent variable (in case of ―shadow‖ variable) or the change in probability for category X as compared to the case category.

Second, I tried to check whether transition from non-employment to employment is related to increasing probability of having a shadow job. This analysis has also been performed by estimating the series of probit models for each year. The probability of transition to employment between ―t‖ and ―t+1‖ has been a dependent variable and estimated probability of working in shadow employment (―shadow‖) in period ―t+1‖ has been one of the explanatory variables. Apart from that, the same set of standard control variables were used, all for the period ―t+1‖. Here, three versions of the model have been estimated for each year: one in which both the ―contract‖ and the ―shadow‖ variables have been added to the model specification, and two with either of the variables used.

In this case one cannot say that the estimated coefficients of the control variables were as expected as it is not so obvious what the expectations should be. One has to remember that it is not the
One issue that we face in generating results that can be compared across the different approaches for delineating metro areas is that while Duranton’s algorithm uses sub-national administrative units – in our case, Indonesian districts – as the “building blocks” for metro areas, the remaining approaches rely on much higher resolution gridded data sets. This means that while the outer perimeters of the metro areas defined by Duranton’s algorithm are constrained to follow district boundaries, this is not the case for the metro areas generated by the other approaches. The latter is, in principle, a highly attractive feature of using the AI, cluster algorithm or NTL data to define metro areas. But, importantly, it poses difficulties for any empirical analysis that wishes to use the metro areas based on these approaches as the unit of observation. This is because other data that the researcher might wish to match to these metro areas with will often only be available for subnational administrative areas or, in the case of household and firm survey micro-data, include location identifiers for such areas only, or have been obtained using a random sampling strategy stratified at the level of sub-national administrative areas. This is also the case for Indonesia.

Given the above, we need to map the urban extents generated by the AI, cluster algorithm and NTL approach to (aggregations of) Indonesian districts. We do this by always applying the same basic rule: we associate two or more districts with a single urban extent if at least 50 percent of the district’s population belongs to that urban extent. In this way, we construct approximations of the “true” urban extents implied by a given approach through the aggregation of districts.<sup>17</sup> Analogous to Duranton’s algorithm, we only consider a given urban extent generated by each of the AI, cluster algorithm and NTL approach to represent a metro area if that extent maps to two or more districts. This implies, for example, that where an urban extent is smaller in area than
Policy Research Working Paper 5490

# **Abstract**

In a seminal contribution, Yi (2003) has shown that vertically specialized trade should be more sensitive to changes in trade costs than regular trade. Yet empirical evidence of this remains remarkably scant. This paper uses data from China’s processing trade regime to analyze the role of trade costs on trade within global production networks (GPNs). Under this regime, firms are granted duty exemptions on imported inputs as long as they are used solely for export purposes. As a result, the data provide information on trade between three sequential nodes of a global supply chain: the location of input production, the location of processing (in China) and the location of further consumption. This makes it possible to examine the role of both trade costs related to the import of inputs _(upstream trade costs)_ and trade costs related to the export of final goods _(downstream trade costs)_ on intra-GPN trade. The authors show that intraGPN trade differs from regular trade in that it not only depends on downstream trade costs, but also on upstream trade costs and the interaction of both. Moreover, intraGPN trade is more sensitive to oil price movements and business cycle movements than regular trade. Finally, the paper analyzes three channels through which intra-GPN trade have amplified the trade collapse during the recent Global Recession.

This paper—a product of the International Trade Department, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network— is part of a larger effort to analyze the role of trade costs within global production networks. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at ari.van-assche@hec.ca and maa@sandiego.edu.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The
>15.0<br>**nt ch**||
|sanitation|Urban|46.7|45.1|50.5|58.2|10.0<br>**poi**||
|||||||(50)<br>0.0<br>5.0<br>**Percentage**|Burkina<br>Cote<br>Liberia<br>Mali<br>Senegal|
|||||||(10.0)<br>.|Faso<br>d'Ivoire|
||||||||Improved Water<br>Improved Sanitation|

_Source:_ WHO Joint Monitoring Program 2010; for Mali from Demographic and Health Surveys for 1993, 1999, and 2003 and Questionnaire à Indicateur de Base du Bien-Etre for 2007; for other countries from Demographic and Health Surveys for different years.

# **Challenges**

According to official figures, the country will not reach the MDGs in either water supply or sanitation. In the case of access to improved water, the Burkinabè government reports that 58 percent of the population had access in 2009—against the MDG target of 79 percent in 2015—which means that it is admittedly off track in achieving the MDG for water supply. On the contrary, figures reported by the JMP present a much more positive view, indicating 79 percent access in 2009 and suggesting that if progress is maintained, the MDG will be comfortably surpassed (table 10).

**Table 10. Evolution of operational indicators associated with ONEA**

|% population with access||Government|Joint Monitoring Programme|
|---|---|---|---|
||Rural|55|76|
|Improved water supply|Urban|72|87|
||Total|58|79|
||Rural|—|54|
|Improved sanitation|
In addressing these questions, the paper is set out as follows. Section 2 gives a brief description of the data that are used and clarifies a number of basic measurement issues relating to both the size and scope of government. Section 3 then provides an overview of trends in government size in both industrial and developing countries, including changes in the composition of government expenditures over time. Section 4 considers the factors driving the expansion in government size. It reports the results of our cross-country regressions looking at the determinants of government size using a variety of specifications. Section _5_ turns to a detailed investigation of the consequences of government size and scope for growth in per capita income. Section 6 continues by looking at how government affects other measures of welfare or well-being, such as infant mortality and life expectancy. Section 7 looks at how robust our individual estimates are by running the size, growth and the well-being equations in a system and, subsequently, by analysing the sensitivity of our results to potential measurement errors and specification of our estimated models. Section 8 concludes.

# 2. Data and Measurement

The paper is based on results from a large, cross-country panel data set that covers the period 1964 to 1993 and encompasses information on up to 132 countries. The data have been drawn from both the World Bank and the Summers-Heston World Tables. A full list of variables and their source is given in Appendix 1. The data cover the maximum period for which information is available for a wide range of developing countries and which also corresponds, in many cases, with independence from colonial 6
_Brazilian spatial labor dynamics Page 19_

**Table 7A.  Summary Statistics, all Brazil**

|**Variable**|**Obs**|**Mean**|**Std.Dev.**|**Min**|**Max**|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Delta ln Wage (2000/1991)|4267|-0.0101|0.2935|-1.5242|0.8495|
|ln Teacher qualification in 1991|4267|1.3938|2.1088|-4.6052|4.2370|
|Years of Schooling in 1991|4267|3.9181|1.4556|0.4425|9.6572|
|Total rainfall|4266|1337.3190|425.4345|368.6636|3361.7090|
|Government Accountability|4267|0.9121|0.2832|0.0000|1.0000|
|Delta ln Employment (2000/1991)|4267|0.1422|0.2224|-0.6961|1.8755|
|lnTransport Cost to São Paulo in 1995|4266|7.0420|0.8469|2.3026|9.2603|
|ln Transport Cost to State Capital in<br>1995|4256|5.8180|0.7780|1.3863|8.6910|
|Delta ln Transferences (2000/1991)|4267|0.8083|0.3221|-1.1823|2.4240|
|Delta ln Market Potential (2000/1991)|4,258|0.4093|0.1375|-0.4691|2.0949|
|ln Population in 1991|4,267|9.5287|1.0888|6.6214|16.0821|
|Dependency
- 13 -

# **IV. MAIN ESTIMATION RESULTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS**

The ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is performed for Equations (1) and (2), separately. First, with the actual precipitation data during the actual project period, it is shown that precipitation causes delays, but not cost overruns (Table 2).<sup>8</sup> The coefficient of ln _Rain_<sup>_t_</sup> is estimated at 0.326, which is statistically significant in project delay equation. By contrast, the coefficient is not significant in the cost overrun equation. This is consistent to our prior expectations, because the sampled rural road works are fairly technically simple. Therefore, contractors are normally not allowed to claim for additional costs, unless there is a major change in specifications. On the other hand, when heavy rain or storms, regardless whether anticipated or not, happen, the contractors’ likely response seems to be just to delay the project.

When the actual precipitation is decomposed into the three factors, it is found that the anticipated precipitation, _rain_<sup>_e_</sup> , explains project delays. The coefficient is estimated at 0.493, which is statistically significant. It can be interpreted that if future precipitation were anticipated based on the backward-looking expectation, project delays could be avoided to a certain extent. The project delay is also explained by precipitation during the extended period. The coefficient is 1.633. In the cost overrun equation, none of the decomposed factors are statistically significant. Again, contractors are unlikely to claim for any cost adjustment because of weather in our case.

> 8 In general there is a view that an additional incentive mechanism is needed particularly for large-scale projects, such as the midcourse review process where the contractual performance would be reviewed periodically and contractors would be penalized if they do not meet the intermediary targets. To tighten the contractor incentives and avoid ex post contract adjustments, the similar type of mechanism
Alibaba’s Rural Taobao program was present, Couture et al. (2017) finds that e-commerce expansion reduces the cost of living for certain groups of the rural population who are induced to use it, though the average effect is muted.

Following the same spirit of Fan et al. (2016) and Couture et al. (2017), our paper examines the relationship between e-commerce development and consumption in China. We extend the model of Startz (2018) to investigate the differential impact of e-commerce on consumption growth by various goods and services. Compared with Fan et al. (2016) and Couture et al. (2017), our paper has a few new features. First, by matching a nationally representative China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) survey with county-level e-commerce information obtained from Alibaba, we can directly examine the impact of e-commerce development on consumption growth at the household level rather than at the aggregate city level as in Fan et al. (2016). Second, our findings are likely more representative because CFPS covers many more counties than the sample used in Couture et al. (2017). Third, using the rich consumption information of the CFPS survey, we can study the heterogenous associations between e-commerce development and various categories of consumption, which were not discussed in Fan et al. (2016) and Couture et al. (2017).

Our paper offers three major findings. First, e-commerce development is associated with higher consumption growth. Lower search cost is a key feature of e-commerce (Bajari and Hortaçsu 2003, Hong and Shum 2006, Brynjolfsson, Dick and Smith 2010, Lieber and Syverson 2011, Levin 2011). Lower search cost makes price discovery easier, bringing the law of one price closer to reality (Gorodnichenko and Talavera 2017). Lower transaction costs increase the level of specialization in the society and create more trade. More competitive prices tend to reduce the cost of living for residents. Couture et al. (2017) show that the expansion of e-commerce to the
cybersecurity requirements for data processors or controllers and provisions safeguarding the rights of data subjects may engender certainty and trust to promote data-based transactions.

Given the essential role of data regulation in promoting trust in the data economy, this diagnostic builds on a trust framework proposed in the WDR21, which advocates for the adoption of both _safeguards_ and _enablers_ to achieve an efficient environment for data governance (World Bank 2021). The trust framework embeds rule of law and good governance principles, including certainty, transparency and accountability, nondiscrimination, fairness, inclusiveness, and openness. Rule of law that emphasizes certainty, rules, and predictability as well as procedural due process supports the creation of trust in the data economy (Crawford and Schultz 2014; Tamanaha 2004; Waldron 2008).

This diagnostic builds on earlier efforts to document the regulatory environment for digital economy activities across countries. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) developed a database tracking the existence of legislation related to e-transactions, consumer protection, data protection/privacy, and cybercrime in 194 countries. DLA Piper, a global law firm, also launched a data protection law tracker that covers116 jurisdictions (DLA Piper 2020). Ferracane, Lee-Makiyama, and van der Marel (2018) have developed a digital trade restrictiveness index to map and measure policy restrictions to digital trade in 64 countries. Greenleaf (2019) conducted a stocktaking of data privacy laws in 132 countries. However, most of the existing data collection efforts focus only on collecting information about the adoption of certain types of legislation, such as the existence of e-commerce or data protection laws, without providing a more granular level of information about the contents of the legislation. What makes this diagnostic unique is that it goes beyond documenting the presence or absence of legislation. It assesses whether the laws contain specific good practice provisions or regulatory attributes, thereby conveying something about the quality of the regulatory environment. In doing so, it builds on the conceptual framework described above.

# **3. Methodology**

Within the trust