rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
range from 1,282 to 1,315, depending on the outcome of interest). The coefficients instrumented with the IV approach remain strongly significant and barely change in magnitude.

Second, we check if the results are robust to using a less disaggregated sectoral classification than 5-digit KBLI to compute the female share of workers at baseline. Table 6 shows that the results are robust to using the 3-digit KBLI sector specification, for both OLS and IV estimations.

Third, we also check the robustness of our results to using two alternative methods of calculating preschool density during the years that are missing in PODES. The first consists of restricting our constructed panel to PODES years. The second, is to predict preschool density for the missing years using linear projection with the closest two data points available. For example, to estimate the preschool density in 2007, we fit a linear projection using preschool density data in PODES 2005 and 2008. Table 7 presents the results. The coefficients on TFPR and TFPQ remain strongly significant. They are 5 and 8 percentage points lower in magnitude, respectively, when we use reduced sample (columns 1-3), and 6 and 2 percentage points higher in magnitude, when we use linear projection (columns 4-6). Notably, the coefficient on markup becomes significant at the 10% level when linear projection is used to impute missing years. However, overall, the results are similar in direction of effect and in magnitude.

Finally, we address a further concern to the robustness of our estimates, i.e. that some district-level time-variant variables, potentially correlated with preschool expansion, may affect plants differently depending on the share of female workers. For example, if investment in education or overall changes in district-level infrastructure, such as road improvement, affect plants differently depending on the share of women, our estimates in (1) may be biased, even though we control for district level time-variant heterogeneity with district-time fixed effect γdt . Consider the following scenario: preschool expansion may be correlated with changes in local public
by about 0.3 percentage points. Similarly, Fialová and Schneider (2011), studying panel data for 2000‐2007, concluded that the work of labor institutions helped to promote the growth of the informal sector in Europe. The authors found that the strictest labor regulations on worker protection (as measured by the OECD Employment Protection Legislation Index) had a significant effect on the growth of informal employment in the European economies. A more recent study of a sample of European and Latin American countries found that stricter regulations and higher payroll taxes are the main determinants of informal employment in emerging economies in Europe and Latin America (Lehmann and Muravyev, 2012). For example, a 10 percent increase in the Employment Protection Legislation Index would correspond to a 13 percent increase in informal employment, while a 10 percent increase in the payroll tax would increase informal employment by 1.3 percent.

Overall, a number of studies suggest that introducing or increasing the level of the minimum wage in the economy increases informal employment for two reasons: primarily because businesses, when faced with labor costs, choose to avoid paying social benefits for some of their workers, and also because they have to lay off workers and much of this manpower is absorbed by low‐productivity enterprises that operate in the informal sector. Evidence of this type of relationship between the minimum wage and the informal sector has been seen especially in Brazil, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Indonesia. In Brazil, for example, Carneiro (2001) was able to demonstrate that rises in the minimum wage over the period 1982‐1999 reduced formal 25
Policy Research Working Paper 10884

# **Abstract**

This paper examines the impact of refugee camp hosting on local communities, specifically the Rohingya crisis in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. It uses remote sensing measurements and panel data to compare areas and individuals at varying distances before and after the Rohingya arrived. The results highlight the complex dynamics of areas that host displaced populations. The paper finds that when the proximity of a grid to the refugee camps increases by 30 km (18.6 miles), night light density rises by 1.7 percent and deforestation expands by 0.02 percent. Land use results align with these findings, showing a decline in dense-open forest and an increase in land covered by grass and crops. The analysis of individual-level data suggests that the Rohingya’s presence manifests in higher job formality, better access to aid, and more food consumption—all largely attributable to the activities of humanitarian organizations. However, their presence is also associated with heightened safety concerns and a higher prevalence of viral diseases such as diarrhea, fever, and cough.

This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at sandrarozo@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http:// reproducibility.worldbank.org, click **here** for direct access.

<!-- Start of picture text --> TRANSPARENT<br>ANALYSIS<br>G<br>R E<br>N<br>S<br>I P<br>Y E<br>K A<br>C A<br>R P<br>LI R<br>O E<br
as Texans become more aware of the increased ease of openly carrying guns.

# **5.4 Heat Impacts by Neighborhood Characteristics**

The impact of heat on individuals, and their psychological state, is likely mediated through their built environment. Changes in the built environment are likely to be a key adaptation to climate change. A detailed understanding of how the built environment mediates the effects of heat today provides insight into the capacity of adaptation to reduce the negative impacts of climate change.

While we do not have data on the specific structures in which defendants reside, we can study the characteristics of the census block groups in which they live. Block groups are the second smallest census unit and contain between 600 and 3,000 people. We assign the characteristics of these block groups to defendants who reside in them and analyze how variations in neighborhood characteristics mediate the impact of heat on crimes.

We focus our analysis on two neighborhood characteristics: the age of the housing stock and median income. We choose neighborhood housing age as the best proxy for the presence of air conditioning, a frequently suggested adaptation to mitigating the impact of heat on cognitive and non-cognitive skills (Park et al., 2020b).<sup>16</sup> We can and do examine whether housing age acts as a good proxy for the presence of air conditioning using CoreLogic data.<sup>17</sup> In Figure A9, we show that while more than 95% of new houses in Texas have central air, the penetration among houses built prior to 1980 averages around 80%. Conditional on having any air conditioning, older houses are also more likely to have window or other noncentral air conditioning units. Further, while we cannot test this directly, it is plausible that older houses have worse insulation and are less well sealed against the outside environment,

> 16Housing age is also correlated with other determinants of behavior, in particular lead paint. We examine whether there are larger effects in areas with houses built prior to
Galasso et al. (2004)). It ensures that benefits went fully to workers and that treatment effects are not driven by a reduction in hiring costs for firms or by other factors such as stigma.

The size of the incentive was calibrated based on wage growth data. Figure 1 shows that after six months, average (median) formal sector wages have increased by about 23% (16%).

> 17Those that do not want to attend are assigned another activity by the school director (like studying, completing classwork, etc.). Among participating students, 76% report the LMLW was useful. 18Participants are (truthfully) informed that due to limited resources the incentive cannot be provided to all graduates and are thus allocated through a lottery.

> 19Several actions were implemented to encourage wage bonus take-up. First, participants could claim the payment of the economic incentive remotely and could electronically certify their formal employment status each month by sending a digital copy or photo of the documentation requested. The project team validate documentation using public records. Second, the project team answered information requests, provided clarifications, and sent reminders to participants through different channels such as SMS, WhatsApp, phone calls, and emails. Take-up rates can be seen in Appendix Table A4.

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# _1. How will the technological distance between countries affect green technologies?_

The potential for successful technology transfer depends on a good match between the needs of the recipient and the technologies available from source countries. Using patent citation data to assess the flow of knowledge across borders, Verdonlini and Galeotti (2011) test whether knowledge spillovers from foreign innovations influence domestic energy R&D. They use these data to construct knowledge stocks and show that increases in foreign knowledge have a larger impact on domestic R&D than increases in domestic knowledge. This result suggests that knowledge spillovers across countries are an important driver of innovation. While primarily focused on developed countries, Verdonlini and Galeotti include data from emerging economies such as Brazil and China in their initial analysis of the patent citation data. Importantly for developing countries, they find that greater technological distance, an index measuring the similarity of the patent portfolios of two countries, reduces the flow of knowledge across borders, and that technological distance is more important than geographic distance. Given that technological distance will be greatest between countries of disparate income levels, this further emphasizes the need to focus on technology transfer and adaptation of existing technologies, rather than innovation, for developing countries.

Concerns over technological distance also suggest a potential role for technology transfer _among_ developing countries. For instance, one might expect emerging economies to be better positioned to provide technologies specific to developing country needs, as the technological distances will be smaller. The evidence on patents and publications pertaining to cooking stoves presented in section III is an example. However, research must focus not only on the potential of 26
# **Summary**

Labor markets are key drivers of poverty reduction. In Latin America, labor markets have been the main channel through which growth reduced poverty with higher labor income accounting for 49 percent of the reduction in poverty in the region in 2008-2013. Incidentally, understanding labor markets is critical to designing policies and programs aimed at reducing poverty. This is particularly true in a low-income fragile country such as Haiti. With close to close to 70 percent of the population under age 30 years, labor markets are bound to be central to defining Haiti’s future. Yet, labor analysis in Haiti has been constrained by the dearth of data and the focus on measuring the impact of the 2010 earthquake. However, while measuring the impact of the earthquake matters, over five years on, this question may be one more interesting to researchers than to inform policies and programs beyond the reconstruction.

The present paper contributes to answering this need by providing an overview of Haiti’s labor markets and the determinants of labor income over a decade, focusing on growing urban areas. The paper also contributes to the research on Haiti in general, as well as labor markets in fragile countries such as Haiti in particular through an unprecedented effort by the authors to harmonize three household surveys conducted between 2001 and 2012. Building on this exercise this paper provides new insights into the development of labor markets in a particularly turbulent decade for Haiti, one that was marked by the political crisis of 2004 and the earthquake of 2010.

In spite of the earthquake, the analysis shows that Haiti’s labor markets are characterized by continuity over the period. Somewhat surprisingly, its defining features remain overall unchanged in spite of the shock – pointing to heavy forces shaping economic and labor dynamics. Self-employment in low-productivity sectors such as commerce and construction remains the norm outside the farm sector. In a rapidly urbanizing Haiti, analysis of the determinants of labor income in urban settings echoes those findings, showing only modest improvement in workers’ endowments (such as education)
## 6.3 Progressive capacity indicators

It is proposed also to complement the effective progressivity indicators with progressive capacity indicators. These two approaches are asking essentially two separate questions and there is consequently merit in producing both: while effective progressivity metrics assess the progressivity of the taxes actually paid by households, progressive capacity metrics assess the progressivity of the tax structure itself.

The case to also calculate progressive capacity metrics is strengthened by the fact that the proposed simplified approach to modelling effective progressivity can be leveraged to produce progressive capacity metrics at low additional resource cost. This is because: (1) the same information on underlying tax rules in IDA countries will need to be collected for either metric; and (2) a simplified tax modelling approach is adopted in each case – meaning that the percentile-based model that will be constructed for the effective progressivity metrics can easily be adapted for the progressive capacity metric.

The proposed methodology would be based on the simplified approach of Gerber et al. (2020), as outlined in section 5. This approach is based on average tax rate calculations made at 500 individual income points (from 1%-500% of GDP per capita). This provides a simple option to produce a progressive capacity metric, enabling changes in the progressivity of the tax schedules of an IDA country to be identified in isolation from their interaction with the underlying income distribution. Kakwani and Reynolds-Smolensky indices would be calculated based on this methodology for the tax rules applicable in each year from 2023-25 to enable monitoring.

As noted in section 5, Gerber et al. (2020) undertook their study for OECD countries, and it is possible that the methodology may not apply as effectively for IDA countries. This is because restricting the upper bound of the income distribution to 500% of GDP per capita could exclude significant parts of the progressive PIT schedule in some IDA countries. This will become clear as data on IDA countries PIT schedules is collected, and the methodology may be adjusted accordingly, if necessary. An alternative option that could
very high level of marginalization, while 96.4% of the non-migrants do.<sup>32</sup> In the case of the intensity of PROSPERA’s treatment subgroups, it appears that only the group with low treatment intensity includes a greater percentage of youths that are single and whom are currently studying in addition to working.<sup>33</sup>

> 32 The marginalization data correspond to CONAPO from 2010.

> 33 In this case, for the treatment intensity data, the weights described in the following section are not applied.

19
conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> ∗The outstanding research assistance of Jorge Balat is greatly appreciated. This paper was financed by the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP) at the World Bank. I am indebted to A. Deaton, P. Goldberg and G. Grossman for comments and early encouragement. I thank I. Brambilla, S. Galiani, D. Lederman, A. Nicita, M. Olarreaga, W. Sosa Escudero and A. Tarozzi for useful discussion at different stages of this research program, and to seminar participants at Di Tella, La Plata and San Andres University. Special thanks go to A. Nicita, who shared the data on Mexico with us.

†Guido Porto, MailStop MC3-303, World Bank, 1818 H Street, Washington DC 20433. email: gporto@worldbank.org
. As a result, the war subsided in some parts of Tigray but spilled over to neighboring Amhara and Afar regions.<sup>11</sup> The expansion of the war into neighboring Amhara and Afar regions have caused further economic and welfare damages in those regions. A recent assessment by the World Food Programme shows that “hunger has more than doubled” in the Amhara region during the immediate five months since the war expanded to the region (WFP, 2022). Thus far, the HFPS data cover the period until May 2021, forcing us to focus on impacts of the first phase of the civil conflict, which was confined to the Tigray region.

> 10 https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/ET/OHCHR-EHRC-Tigray-Report.pdf

> 11 However, Tigray remained without communication, electricity and banking services and a dire humanitarian crisis continues to unfold (WFP, 2022).

7
Adjusted R-squared|0.128|0.166|0.218|0.218|0.279|

Notes: Estimations quantify the relationship between district-industry employment in new establishments and local district conditions. District-level traits are taken from the 2001 Census. Industrial conditions are calculated from 2005-06 using incumbent establishments in the district-industry. Labor regulations are a composite of adjustment and disputes laws. Estimations weight observations by an interaction of district size and industry size, include industry fixed effects, and cluster standard errors by district. Non-logarithm variables are transformed to have unit standard deviation for interpretation. Source: Ghani, Kerr, O'Conell, 2011b 14
death (Korang-Okrah and Haight, 2015). In Rwanda, where the land registration intervention formalized women’s inheritance rights in the event of their husband’s death, we find no positive fertility impacts.

Taken together, our results suggest that a key driver of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa is women’s use of childbearing as a strategy to ensure future access to land and income. Given the common age gap between spouses in Africa, widowhood is a likely eventuality that can be anticipated from a young age. In patrilineal contexts where prevailing norms exclude women from property ownership and inheritance, having a son who is entitled to inherit from his father can mitigate a woman’s risk of housing and land dispossession upon her husband’s death. The costs of this risk are significant: using data from Mali, Van de Walle (2013) shows that widows in Mali are worse off in a number of dimensions, even after they are absorbed into other households. Furthermore, in patrilocal contexts where the practice is for daughters but not sons to move away upon marriage, women are more likely to rely on their sons in old age than on their daughters. In particular, our study suggests how— in the face of weak inheritance rights and limited availability of formal pensions—women’s demand for children results from their need for security in old age.

To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to estimate the causal impact of an increase in women’s earnings on fertility in a high-fertility, low-income setting. Previous studies have shown that providing young girls with the opportunity to have a paid job delayed their marriage and childbearing (Jensen, 2012; Heath and Mobarak, 2015). However, these studies could not disentangle the effect of an exogenous increase in income from the effect of accessing the labor market for girls who may not have worked otherwise. In the present paper, we study women who are already married and working, which allows us to isolate the impact of an increase in
elderly receiving public pensions, tax rates might create distortions that lead to lower demand for leisure and, thus, positive endogenous effects on the intensity of labor supply. Alternatively, the intensity of labor supply might fall when statutory retirement ages are often increased as a policy response to aging and people experience their lifetime leisure falling. Furthermore, the way in which the Brazilian government decides to finance the inevitably increasing costs for social security and health will also have major implications for the behavioral responses of Brazilians. So, the behavioral dynamics of saving are not only endogenous to aging but also to government financing policies.

The macroeconomic implications of population aging in Brazil are analyzed in this paper using three alternative yet complementary methodologies. First, the international and Brazil-specific _econometric evidence_ on the aging-saving transmission channel is analyzed. Second, a _partial equilibrium_ model is developed to exploit the rich household data on exogenous age-specific saving rates in Brazil. Third, as partial equilibrium analyses do not take into account the potentially endogenous behavioral responses to aging (Acemoglu, 2010) a _general equilibrium_ model is finally presented. Simulations are performed for different scenarios of income inequality and government policies, and the implications for key macroeconomic aggregates, such as saving, wealth, and welfare, are analyzed and discussed in light of the advantages and disadvantages of the different models.

The main findings of the three complementary analyses are the following. In relation to the _econometric evidence_ for Brazil, a higher saving rate is found to lead to higher income growth. This is an empirically well-established relationship for most countries. What is more controversial is the econometric finding that an increase in the old-age dependency ratio has, so far, led to an increase in the private saving rate — suggesting that aging may lead to higher growth in the future due to higher saving rates. The econometric evidence is paired with a literature review that places Brazil in international context regarding the relationship between population dynamics and saving — revealing that Brazil is not the only developing country that has experienced such unexpected dynamics (Chawla, Betcherman