rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
countries on various aspects of public financial management, including budget credibility, transparency, and performance the budget cycle. The PEFA indicators include a combination of policy and performance indicators. For example, they incorporate _de facto_ elements, such as the existence of a clear budget calendar, as well as _de jure_ elements, such as whether the legislature followed the budget calendar in the year preceding the survey. Like the Bank’s CPIA index, PEFA indicators are scored on a four-point scale (Lewis and Pettersson 2009; PEFA Secretariat 2005).

The PEFA framework looks only at indicators of financing policy and performance at the level of the overall government, not individually at sectors. At least two recent efforts have applied this approach at the sectoral level, for the health sectors in the Philippines and in Mozambique (Lawson et al. 2008; Philippines Department of Health).

The Philippines study, on which the Government of the Philippines and the World Bank collaborated, defined a set of Agency Benchmark Indicators (ABI) that assess the public financial management performance of the Department of Health (DOH). The exercise developed indicators of financial management practices, policies, procedures, and systems that can be applied at an organizational level and can be tracked over time. The Department of Health was the pilot agency, but the goal is to apply the instrument in other sectors as well. The indicators cover six areas: (i) budget preparation; (ii) budget execution and reporting; (iii) organizational management and accountability for performance; (iv) DOH-specific indicators; (v) external factors influencing DOH operations; and (vi) budget credibility, execution, and efficiency. These indicators include measures of both policies and performance. In the area of budget preparation, 20
accepted draw) and a covariance matrix Σ, which is calculated as the inverse Hessian at the mode. The second component is the likelihood function, which must be evaluated before the MH algorithm starts running.

We apply the Kalman filter to the linear state-space form, which includes a state equation describing the evolution of states based on their past values and a measurement equation showing how states are related to data, to get the likelihood.

for t=1,...,n where Σ<sup>_s_</sup> _t_<sup>andΣ</sup><sup>_m_</sup> _t_<sup>arecovariancematricesofstateandmeasurementshocks</sup> _εt,s_ and _εt,m_ . Kalman filter simply operates on two steps: It first makes a prediction about a new state **st** based on the state transition equation and then corrects for it when new data **yt** become available. If **yt** are missing, Kalman filter still guesses **st** using the prediction step. Then, it predicts missing **yt** using the measurement equation. This feature of the Kalman filter makes adding mixed frequency or missing observations possible. For example, we have energy balances available at the annual frequency. We simply feed what we have to the Kalman filter and leave missing quarterly observation as NaN. Similarly, public/private investment data are not published after 2016 Q2. We feed only available data to the filter and leave the remaining values as NaN. Kalman filter fills these missing observations by using the best available information.

We use the software Dynare 5.3 on Matlab to simulate posterior distribution of 85 model parameters. We run two chains of MH algorithms with 50,000 iterations each, and burn in the first half of the accepted draws. We choose the scaling parameter of the proposal distribution such that the acceptance ratio is around 0.25.

# **B.5 Prior distributions**

Tables B4 and
Frankel and Rose, 1996; Berg and Pattillo, 1999; Milesi-Ferretti and Razin, 2000), current account reversals and capital flow contractions ( _e.g._ Milesi-Ferretti and Razin, 1998; Edwards, 2005, 2007).

Economic performance, as measured by the growth rate of GDP, is assumed to reduce the likelihood of sudden stops taking place. GDP data in US dollars at constant prices, obtained from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), is used to compute the growth rate. We also include indicators of the soundness and stability of the macroeconomic policy framework as determinants of sudden stops. It has been argued that sudden stops are less likely to take place in countries with sounder and more stable macroeconomic policy framework. Hence, we include indicators of monetary stability, exchange rate flexibility and the health of external and fiscal positions.

Monetary stability is proxied by the rate of inflation, as measured by the rate of change of the consumer price index, and its data is obtained from the International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). We include not only the rate of inflation but we also include the inflation rate interacted with a dummy that takes the value of 1 when CPI inflation exceeds 50% per year. The latter variable captures high inflation. Exchange rate flexibility is measured by the coarse classification of exchange rate regimes developed by Reinhart and

> similar outcomes for other financial institutions (as in Thailand 1996–97). We rely on existing studies of banking crises and on the financial press.

11
summary, this first application of the new World Bank database suggests that CH4 atmospheric concentration measures from the ESA’s Sentinel-5P system can provide useful new information for identifying and assessing local variations in methane emissions from irrigated rice production. While more ground-truthing would undoubtedly be useful, we believe that recent research has already established the accuracy of space-based CH4 measures. For irrigated rice production, future survey research could shed more light on the local sources of variation in measured emissions. This could in turn support incentive-based programs that use the World Bank database to track, verify and reward adoption of methane-reducing techniques. If this approach proves valuable for irrigated rice production, we believe that it can work for other methane sources as well.

24
dimensions, but without forming a single composite index. At the country level, the World Bank’s _Poverty Assessments_ and the _Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers_ of individual governments have typically drawn on multiple indicators (though naturally with varying emphasis), without forming a single composite index.<sup>4</sup> This paper argues that the real differences between the recent measures that are called “multidimensional” and standard approaches lie elsewhere. The first difference is in whether one believes that a single index of poverty could ever be a sufficient statistic, or whether multiple indices are required, each measuring different things using the best data available for that task— presenting us with a “large and eclectic dashboard” (Stiglitz et al., 2009, p.62). A second difference is also evident on closer inspection, namely how the analyst chooses to collapse multiple dimensions into one, recognizing that some degree of aggregation will probably be called for even in the “dashboard” approach.

In elaborating these two differences I will illustrate the arguments using the most welldeveloped and broadly applied MIP to date, namely that developed by Alkire and Santos (2010a), which is a special case of the class of measures proposed by Alkire and Foster (2007). The following section discusses the Alkire-Santos index, and whether it can be considered sufficient for measuring poverty and informing policy making. Section 3 turns to the issue of how one can go about aggregating across multiple dimensions when a degree of aggregation is called for to reduce the dimensionality. Section 4 concludes.

# **2. Can we measure poverty adequately with any single index?**

There are countless possibilities for forming composite indices by some form of essentially _ad hoc_ aggregation—giving what I term elsewhere “mashup indices” (Ravallion, 2010a). The issue in this section is not how this can be done but whether it is useful to do so. One can easily imagine situations in which one would not want a mashup index. Imagine you go for
# **E.21 Controlling for Unbalanced Baseline Variables**

Covariates included (all measured as proportions of households): (1) beyond primary education, (2) Mende, (3) ill in last month, and (4) own mobile phone.

**Table E.26:** Effects on Reported Cases Controlling for Unbalanced Baseline Variables

||Control Mean|Pooled|CM|NFA|Difference|N|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Ebola Cases|||||||
|Total|0.281|0.191|0.153|0.23|-0.077|5,440|
||(0.727)|(0.086)**|(0.103)|(0.101)**|(0.112)||
|Confrmed|0.011<br>(0.129)|0.068<br>(0.027)**|0.07<br>(0.031)**|0.067<br>(0.029)**|0.002<br>(0.027)|5,440|
|Negative|0.238<br>(0.648)|0.105<br>(0.063)*|0.056<br>(0.076)|0.153<br>(0.078)**|-0.098<br>(0.089)|5,440|
|IHS(Ebola Cases)|||||||
|Total|0.206|0.096|0.082|0.11|-0.029|5,440|
||(0.47)|(0
# **I. Introduction**

To what extent do firms rely on each other’s trustworthiness and mutual interests or invoke the assistance of various third parties when ensuring the fulfillment of their agreements to buy and sell goods and services? Which combinations of these approaches do firms use? How do answers to these questions vary across countries? Williamson (1979) refers to such combinations as transactional governance structures. In the 40 years since this concept was introduced, no study has produced economy-wide, cross-country data on a comprehensive set of approaches to supporting transactions, showing which governance structures are most commonly found effective by firms. This is surprising given the consensus that firm performance and levels of development are associated with the effectiveness of arrangements for enforcing agreements (Williamson 1985; North 1990; Moran and Ghoshal 1999, Greif 2001, World Bank 2002, 2017).

The aim of this paper is to fill this gap in the literature. We rely on data that are generated from the responses of individual firms to a survey question that is designed to be interpretable by a respondent from any firm in any sector in any country. The data reflect the experiences of 3,430 firms in six South American economies. This is a small number of countries, but the methodology is sufficiently general that it could be applied in any country, sector, or region in the world. By using representative samples and survey weights, we are able to characterize the aggregate importance of different governance structures in a very large part of economic activity.<sup>1</sup> To our knowledge our paper is the first to present and analyze data that provide such a comprehensive picture of the effectiveness of the different approaches that firms use to support the fulfillment of agreements. While there are many data sets on particular elements of governance, such as the strength of contractual institutions, our data uniquely capture four elements: reflecting

> 1 The samples are designed to be nationally representative of non-agricultural, non-extractive, formally registered, private firms with at least
<br>95<br>0.26<br>0.17|70|87|
|2004|639<br>25<br>96<br>0.28<br>0.17|87|92|
|2005|711<br>23<br>94<br>0.29<br>0.17|140|138|
|2006|764<br>23<br>95<br>0.33<br>0.17|147|133|
|2007|836<br>22<br>96<br>0.33<br>0.19|148|110|
|_2008_|_884_<br>_22_<br>_96_<br>_0.39_<br>_0.20_|_202_|_131_|
|Source: Deri<br>Note: Result<br>**Figure 17.**<br>140<br>160<br>180<br>**ues**|ved from Briceño-Garmendia, Smits, and Foster 2009.<br>s for 2008 based on preliminary data.<br>**Hidden costs of Mali’s power utility are among the highest in West Africa**|||
|120<br><br>**reven**||||
|100<br>**of**||||
|60<br>80<br>**tage**||||
|40<br><br>**cen**||||
|0<br>20<br><br>**Per**||||
||Liberia<br>Niger<br>Mali<br>Ghana<br>Burkina Faso<br>Cote d'Ivoi|re<br>Benin||
||Collection Inefficiencies<br>Underpricing<
−0.010<sup>∗∗</sup>|−0.010<sup>∗</sup>|−0.012<sup>∗∗</sup>|−0.010<sup>∗∗</sup>|−0.009<sup>∗∗</sup>|−0.009<sup>∗</sup>|
||(0.005)|(0.004)|(0.005)|(0.006)|(0.004)|(0.004)|(0.005)|
|City Controls|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Leader Controls|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|City FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Province-Year FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|# of Observations|3620|3362|3447|2806|3642|3642|3642|
|# of Cities|281|281|266|281|281|281|281|
|Adj_R_<sup>2</sup>|0.60|0.60|0.60|0.63|0.60|0.60|0.60|

_Notes_ : This table presents several robustness checks for the political cycle of GDP manipulation. The dependent variable is the difference between reported real GDP growth and predicted real GDP growth imputed based on the nighttime lights data of prefecture-level cities. City controls include city-level time-varying economic controls (the share of industrial and tertiary value added in GDP, log population, and growth of nighttime lights) and leader controls are the same as the ones displayed in the table of baseline results. Standard errors clustered at the city level (except columns (6) and (7)) are reported in
Blattman, C., Gonwa, T., Jamison, J., Rodrigues, K., Sheridan, M. (2016). Measuring the measurement error: A method to qualitatively validate survey data. Journal of Development Economics, 120, 99–112 Brunton-Smith, I., Sturgis, P., and Leckie, G. (2017). Detecting and understanding interviewer effects on survey data by using cross-classified mixed effects location-scale model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, vol. 180, Issue 2, 551–568 Catania, J. A., Binson, D., Canchola, J., Pollack, L.M., and Huack, W. (1996). Effects of Interviewer Gender, Interviewer Choice, and Item Wording on Responses to Questions Concerning Sexual Behavior. Public Opinion Quarterly. 60(3): 345-375.

Carlson, E. (2016). Identifying and interpreting the sensitivity of ethnic voting in Africa. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol.80, Issue 4, (1), 837–857 Couper, M.P. and Grove, R.M. (1992). The role of the interviewer in survey participation. Survey Methodology 18(2): 263-278 Davis, D. W. and Silver, B, D. (2003). Stereotype threat and race of interviewer effects in a survey on political knowledge. American Journal of Political Science, vol.47(1): 33-45.

Davis, D. W. (1997). The direction of race of interviewer effects among African Americans: Donning the Black Mask. American Journal of Political Science 41:309 – 322 de Mel, S., D. McKenzie, and C. Woodruff (2009). Measuring microenterprise profits: Must we ask how the sausage is made? Journal of Development Economics 88, 19–31 Fiala, N., and Premand, P. (2018). Social accountability and service delivery: Evidence from a large-scale
servants and widespread riots. As the socialist regimes in Eastern Europe were collapsing at about the same time, President Kérékou renounced Marxism, released political prisoners, arranged free elections, and launched market-oriented economic reforms supported by the World Bank and—for the first time—an IMF program. A National Convention in 1990 established an interim government, a new constitution was approved by referendum, the country’s name was changed to Republic of Benin and, in early 1991, multi-party elections led to a new government. The peaceful political transition—President Kérékou was the first leader in mainland Africa to lose power through elections—and economic liberalization stimulated foreign investment and a gradual economic recovery, although the country remains poor and dependent on subsistence agriculture. In 1991, according to the CPIA index, Benin exited fragility.

# **Cambodia**

Since 1970, Cambodia, a small agricultural economy, experienced two decades of war, internal conflict, a genocidal regime, famine, invasion, and an international embargo. During this period, 2 million to 3 million people—about a third of the population—perished, physical infrastructure was destroyed, two-thirds of draught animals were lost, large areas of agricultural land were mined, and economic and judicial institutions were destroyed. A comprehensive peace settlement in 1991 and the arrival of the UN Transitional Authority in Cambodia (UNTAC) to enforce the ceasefire, deal with disarmament and refugee re-settlement, and organize the first post-war election in 1993 provided the basis for a return to normality. In 1994, some economic reforms were launched under IMF - and World Bank-supported programs to open the economy, control inflation, and strengthen the fiscal position. But the reform drive was short-lived as political turmoil continued. The Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), in government since the Vietnamese invasion in 1978-79, refused to relinquish power and control of the armed forces. Tensions culminated in a coup d’état in 1997 that ousted the Prime Minister and consolidated power in the hands of the CPP. This led
, Christensen, J., McDonnell, R., Elbert, C., & Konishi, Y. (2018). Climate variability, drought, and drought management in Tunisia’s agricultural sector. World Bank, Washington, DC, World Bank.

Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of climate, 23(7):1696–1718.

World Bank (2022). Tunisia’s Jobs Landscape. Available at: <u>https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tunisia/publication/tunisia-s-jobs-landscape</u> World Bank (forthcoming). Tunisia Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group World Bank. (2015). Labor Policy to Promote Good Jobs in Tunisia: Revisiting Labor Regulation, Social Security, and Active Market Programs, 2015.

World, Bank, 2021. Climate Risk Profile: Tunisia (2021): The World Bank Group.

Zouabi, O., & Peridy, N. (2015). Direct and indirect effects of climate on agriculture: an application of a spatial panel data analysis to Tunisia. Climatic change, 133, 301-320.

16
- and public-related risks), for which both household strategies and public and private actions try to cope.

The relevance in analyzing vulnerability is related to the growing interest in including the concept into the design and implementation of social development strategies. Under the normative assumption that vulnerability causes insecurity and a reduction of welfare, it should be a central component of public actions to ensure a minimum level of protection. In an empirical work using panel data for rural India, Gaiha and Imai (2008) employ a decomposition of both ex ante and ex post measures of vulnerability to aggregate and idiosyncratic risks. An important result is that small farmers are vulnerable to idiosyncratic risks, which cause them to reduce their levels of consumption. Furthermore, vulnerability must be viewed as a broadening area for public intervention (that goes beyond static poverty status) given the presence of inter-temporal risks such as changes in income levels and sources, climate-related events, and conflicts, particularly important as markets for credit and insurance are incomplete and imperfect.

While there is widespread consensus on the inclusion of vulnerability as a component of development policies, the question remains on how to measure it and how to quantify its impacts on welfare.<sup>3</sup> Recently, Cafiero and Vakis (2006) have suggested an approach based on an ―augmented‖ poverty line, which in addition to including a bundle of consumption goods

> 3 The literature has proposed a number of measures designed to capture the welfare consequences of vulnerability for poor households. See for example the discussion by Ligon and Schechter (2004) and Dercon (2002).

- 4 -
/sup> It asked respondents to list, for each bed net currently owned by the household, precisely how it was acquired. The options were: purchased from private sellers, purchased from government organizations, received as a donation from government, received as a donation from a parent or friend, or some other source. Of the sample households, 86 percent report having at least one bed net of any kind; 69 percent report having received at least one free bed net from the government; and 16 percent of households purchased at least one government bed net.

There appears to be considerable scope to increase the supply of bed nets to ensure full coverage of all household members. The average household in our sample reports 0.38 bed nets (both treated and untreated) for each household member. Our work is therefore undertaken in a setting in which the government could respond by providing more bed nets, whether free or for a payment, to households that place a greater value on them. A supply response could be particularly important for malaria prevention given that old nets are likely to have lost their insecticide treatment and have reduced effectiveness against mosquitoes (Dupas, 2009). Media access has no effect, however, on the total number of bed nets reported by households.

> 8 http://www.fightingmalaria.gov/funding/contracts/psi_coop-agreement.pdf.  PSI is a major contractor for the development of communications campaigns in Benin.

9 We do not, however, have reliable data on the actual usage of bed nets by households (who sleeps under the bed nets, how regularly, etc.), since information on these dimensions is particularly difficult to collect through multi-purpose surveys. Further below in the paper we discuss in more detail how to interpret our results on source of bed nets in terms of household usage. We also do not have sufficiently accurate data on whether the bed nets reported by households are properly treated with insecticides of the long-lasting kind or whether the insecticide is still effective. These
a tax increase from 18% to 21% in 2012. x and xx refer to the e¤ect after one and two years of the tax shock, respectively.

# 5 Can non-linear distortion-based arguments explain the e¤ects of di¤erent exogenous tax changes when using RR’s sample?

In Section 6.4, we explained the e¤ects of di¤erent exogenous tax changes based on non-linear arguments using our global sample and narrative strategy. This appendix analyzes whether the same type of non-linear arguments is present in RR’s U.S. dataset and the extent to which they can explain the di¤erent response of output to tax changes motivated by long-run growth considerations relative to de...cit-driven ones. In order to maintain the comparability with RR’s study, we use their speci...cation and econometric strategy. In particular, RR’s basic speci...cation is as follows: where y is the logarithm of real GDP (and thus �y measures the real GDP growth rate) and �t<sup>exog</sup> is RR’s measure of legislated tax change.

First, we proceed as in Subsections 6.1 and 6.2 and evaluate whether the e¤ect of tax changes on output depends upon the initial tax level and the size of the tax change. Using the same type of interaction strategy proposed in speci...cations (10) and (11), Panels A and B in Figure A1 show similar ...ndings to those obtained before using a global sample. This evidence further supports that the output e¤ect of tax increases is, as theoretically argued, highly non-linear and becomes more negative with the initial tax level and size of the tax change.

Second, we analyze whether the di¤erences in the initial tax levels and/or the respective size of the tax changes across long-run growth and inherited de...cit-driven tax changes may help explain the
058)|(3.468)|(2.698)|(2.933)|
|−<br>∆<br>83 93<br>log(<br>)<br>d<br>SFirm|3.569*|3.240*|0.565|2.313|6.719*|3.760|
||(1.933)|(1.855)|(2.433)|(2.888)|(3.977)|(4.078)|
|Constant|–1.853|–2.792**|3.197|0.489|–6.849***|–5.569***|
||(1.261)|(1.135)|(2.209)|(2.320)|(1.617)|(1.676)|
|_N_|136|136|67|67|69|69|
|_R_<sup>_2_</sup>-statistic|0.167|0.175|0.188|0.052|0.400|0.331|

_<mark>Source:</mark>_ <mark>Authors’ estimates based on data from the 2003 National Industrial Census, the 2014 Integrated Business Establishment Survey, and GSS (2016).</mark> _Note:_ This table reports estimates for equation 1. Dependent variable = district-level employment in the given sector. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Significance level: * = 10 percent, ** = 5 percent, *** = 1 percent.

25