rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
such as cloud cover of ephemeral light sources.

In addition to night lights, we provide direct evidence of the impact of Fonden on local economic activity by investigating its impact on employment. The employment dataset is constructed from the labor force survey (LFS) ENOE. Specifically, we produce a quarter-year panel of employment at the municipal level for the 2005 to 2013 period. The LFS is produced by the Mexican statistical office INEGI. The survey samples 120,000 dwellings per quarter in both urban and rural municipalities. It has a focus and structure similar to that of the Current Population Survey, and at any given point in time, it provides information on roughly half of Mexico’s municipalities. As in the case of night lights, the outcome of interest is the log difference in employment between the quarter the disaster takes place and various quarters in the post-disaster period.

The national water commission (CONAGUA) provided us with three datasets: (i) Data on historical rainfall at the day-weather station level, this dataset spans the 1920 to 2015 period, and contains the universe of weather stations. (ii) The weather station-month level triggers for Fonden eligibility. (iii) The mapping between municipalities and representative weather stations. These datasets where merged with numeric weather station identifiers when available, and with string weather station identifiers when not. In spite of using natural language processing algorithms, we are still unable to fully match municipalities to all the possible weather stations used for verification. The resulting dataset is a municipal-month level panel that allows us to observe the rainfall mm to the Fonden heavy rainfall threshold. For events spanning more than one day the maximum was chosen.

Data on municipal level requests and approvals for disaster declarations were constructed from the archives of Mexico’s official diary. Data on municipal level Fonden expenditures, and days between disaster and authorization of funds are provided by the Ministry of Finance (MoF).

Given the introduction of the percentile 90 heavy rainfall rule in 2004 and the availability of log night lights, we
since 2007 as well as between 2001 and 2007; two global financial crisis (2001 and 2008) and a number of domestic shocks which include favorable rainfall that has boosted agricultural output. Any one of these events may have had a significant impact on poverty levels. However, policy makers in Morocco do not have the data needed to verify whether poverty rates have indeed changed. The question we wish to address is whether we can use quarterly Labor Force Surveys (LFSs) to fill these gaps and, by doing so, connect the dots of poverty estimates in Morocco for the period between the last two consumption surveys (2001-2007) and beyond. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive experiment of crosssurvey imputation that uses LFS data to estimate a series of quarterly poverty rates spanning a decade. Note that if the proposed methodology proves successful, it can be applied to countries worldwide, wherever there is a need for it, since LFSs are standard surveys that are conducted at least annually if not quarterly in almost every country.

The application of this methodology to Morocco shows encouraging results. We estimated quarterly poverty rates with LFSs for the period 2001-2007 using separately a consumption model estimated from 2001 consumption data and a consumption model estimated from 2007 consumption data. Despite the fact that the two models are 6 years apart, we found that the models produced nearly identical poverty trends over the period under consideration. We also estimated the 2001 poverty rate using the 2007

> 4 A few countries have attempted to address this problem by producing statistics on poverty at an infra-annual level. For example, Peru experimented with the administration of quarterly consumption surveys while Mexico produces a proxy of income poverty every month using Labor Force Surveys. However, collecting survey data quarterly is evidently very expensive while many countries do not collect income data together with labor data making these efforts difficult to replicate elsewhere.

3
, chickpeas, lentils, maize meal, gari_ , and _parsley_ . The selection of these items has been fully codified in a set of flexible rules around minimum data-availability thresholds. The selected items in this way depend on the period of analysis. Generally, if the focus is on recent data, without requiring a long history, a higher number of food items could be selected. The code to scrape and run the price monitor has been made available as open source and can be customized for improved country-specific results.
’ analysis based on data from the Penn World Tables version 9.0 (series _rgdpna/pop_ ).

The slump begins in 1958 and the trough is found in 1959. This is a relatively short-lived crisis before the ousting of the Somoza dictatorship ushers in a major slump (and civil war), lasting from 1977 to 1993. Panel (b) shows a finished slump in Switzerland where trend growth decelerates after the second break. In 1974, the Swiss economy is strongly affected by the oil crisis of the mid-1970s, leading to a 8.79% drop in GDP per capita within two years. After a strong recovery, Switzerland enters a low growth regime typical for the high-income economies in Western Europe of the 1980s and 1990s. Panel (c) shows a finished slump in the Philippines occurring in the early 1980s with an accelerated trend after the second break. The Philippines were hit by a combination of external shocks: the second oil crisis, declining export prices, and rising world interest rates, as well as internal shocks caused by a debt 11
of financial development or the amount of available financing in each sub-region, in order to net out the pure financing contribution to trade. Empirical evidence at both the aggregate and industry levels points to a positive relationship between sound financial markets and international trade. Using aggregate panel data of 30 years and 65 countries, Beck (2002) shows that countries with a higher level of financial development have (i) higher shares of manufactured exports in both GDP and total merchandise exports, and (ii) a higher trade balance in manufactured goods. Similarly, Manova (2008) shows that equity market liberalizations increase exports disproportionately in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or use fewer collateralizable assets. Addressing reverse causality, Manova (2013) shows that more thriving financial markets encourages growth in international trade, rather than the other way around.

4
high informality. As shown in Table 6, a one standard deviation increase in the share of returnees reduces average wages by 13.4 percent for formal firms operating in more informal sectors. Then, when we look at the effects on wages separated by gender (table 7), the estimated impacts are similar between wages of men and women working in firms that operate in informal sectors. Overall, our estimations indicate a reduction in both average salaries of around 15 percent.

Finally, we explore the differences in the effects of returned migrants as a demand shock. Since the economic sector can be obtained at the firm level, we document the demand shock using only firm entry as outcome. The results are presented in Table 8. Columns (1) and (2) present results of regressions using the subsets of firms in sectors that are predominantly formal or informal, respectively. We find no statistically significant effects of returned migrants on the extensive margins of firm growth by sector. However, the estimated coefficient using data of firms in the informal sector suggests that an increase in the share of deportees by a standard deviation can increase the firm’s entry by approximately 10 percentage points, which corresponds to an increase of 15 percent relative to the mean of the dependent variable.

In sum, our results indicate that most of the results are likely driven by the informal labor market. The larger effects among formal firms operating in predominantly informal sectors are consistent with the characteristics of the returned migrants in El Salvador. Considering that at least 71.3 percent of them have no more than primary education, most of them do not speak English, and around 76 percent of them were caught at the border and thus have to pay the cost of trying to get to the United States (Table 2), it is plausible that upon arrival in El Salvador they take lower tier jobs, which are most likely to be available in the informal sector.

# **VII Discussion**

Our results indicate that large deportation inflows have
,t_ ) via a scalar that captures distortions ( _τi,j,t_ ):<sup>1</sup> Given that input-output tables are based on observed variables (i.e., they do not distinguish between distorted and undistorted states); the size of the distortion is then expressed relative to a frontier country (e.g., the United States or Korea). We extract the relative distortions using IO data:

> 1The firm profit maximizing problem reads as max���� _Pj,tYj,t−wNj,t−rKj,t−_<sup>�</sup><sup>_n_</sup> _i_ =1<sup>(1+</sup><sup>_τi,j,t_)</sup><sup>_PiMi,j,t_,</sup> _Kj,t,Nj,t,Mi,j,t_

where the Cobb-Douglas production function is _Yj,t_ = � _Kj,t_<sup>_α_((</sup><sup>_Aj,tNj,t_)</sup><sup>_α_)</sup> �1 _−γj_ � _ni_ =1<sup>_M γ_</sup> _i,j,t_<sup>_i,j_,where</sup><sup>_N_is labor,</sup> _K_ capital stock, _M_ intermediate inputs, _P, w, r_ the price of output _Y_ , labor and capital respectively. The first order condition for the intermediate input is _bi,j,t_ =<sup>_Pi_</sup> _P_<sup>_M_</sup> _j Y_<sup>_i,j,_</sup> _j_<sup>_t_</sup> =<sup>_<u>γ</u>_</sup> _τi,j_<sup>_i,j_.Theundistortedeconomy(i.
the institutional environment is contestable. Institutional arrangements for an effective competition policy in the banking sector call for a clear separation from prudential oversight to avoid potential conflicts of interest, and for better coordination of competition policy functions. In this section, we present results in which we add to the baseline specification an interaction between a proxy for competition policy and institutional effectiveness, and external finance dependence. Results are shown in Tables 10 – 13. Each table reports results obtained by adding a series of policy variables to the baseline specification with the 5‐bank concentration ratio, 3‐ bank concentration ratio, the Boone indicator and the Lerner index, respectively.

We first test whether direct government intervention in credit markets via state‐owned banks exacerbates the negative impact of low bank competition on economic growth of financially dependent firms. The academic literature supports the negative view of public ownership, indicating that the presence of state‐owned banks leads to an unleveled playing field and hence less competition (See Barth et al., 2004; and La Porta et al., 2002). State‐owned banks enjoy privileges and immunities that are not available to their privately‐owned competitors, giving them an unfair competitive advantage over their rivals. Moreover, firms borrowing from state‐ owned banks may pay less than firms borrowing from privately‐owned banks but tend also to be less profitable and riskier on average (Sapienza, 2004). In our analysis, government ownership is the share of the banking system’s total assets held by banks that are 50 percent or more state‐ owned, based on information collected from regulatory agencies (see Barth et al., 2013). The interaction between government ownership and external finance dependence should enter our baseline specification with a negative sign. Results are reported in the first column in each table (labeled “Public assets”). In all specifications, we do not find a significant effect of direct government intervention in the banking sector.

Next, we assess whether increased foreign bank penetration is associated with
developed jointly by ITC (UNCTAD-WTO, Geneva) and CEPII (Paris).<sup>13</sup> The tariff data is for the most recent year for which there is data available between 2000 and 2004. For more than half the countries the base year is 2003 or 2004 and for only three countries the data is 2000 (Peru, Kazakhstan and Egypt). MAcMap also provided us with a complete dataset of unilateral, bilateral and regional preferences which is an important component when estimating MA-OTRIs.

Calls for improving the quality of NTBs data collection are regularly done (see Deardorff and Stern, 1997). This paper is no exception. As can be seen from the fi rst column of Table 1 the best international data available to us (UNCTAD’s TRAINS) has quite an incomplete country coverage (e.g., tariff data is available for almost twice the number of countries for which NTB data

> 13 See Bou ̈et et al. (2004) for a detailed description.

14
grown from an average of about 4 percent of GDP in 2008 to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2011, while government debt has declined, but has remained above 70 percent of GDP since 2008. In such a country it would be difficult to accommodate escalating subsidy costs that absorb the difference between international and domestic food prices.

Empirical information on subsidies from developing MENA supports this view. As mentioned earlier, food subsidy data is patchy, but for a few countries there

-13-
<mark>the employment contraction. In the Philippines and South Africa, on the other hand, poverty increases using employment elasticities range between 40% and 70% of the increases obtained</mark> using 2020 employment levels.

# **Figure 9. Poverty, vulnerable population, and middle-class projected changes between 2019** **<mark>and 2020 using different employment data. In percentage points</mark>**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 6.0<br>4.0<br>2.0<br>0.0<br>-2.0<br>-4.0<br>-6.0<br>Actual data Elasticities Actual data Elasticities Actual data Elasticities Actual data Elasticities<br>Turkey Philippines South Africa Brazil<br>US$ 2.25/day US$ 3.65/day US$ 6.85/day Vulnerable Middle class<br><!-- End of picture text --> Notes: Vulnerable defined as a household per capita income between 6.85 and 13 USD a day (2017 PPP). Middle class defined as a household per capita income between 13 and 70 USD a day (2017 PPP). Table A5 in the Appendix present the values of the estimated rates when using employment elasticities.

<mark>These results highlight the importance of using accurate employment data to simulate the distributional impacts of a shock.</mark>

# **<mark>4.2 Validation in Brazil</mark>**

The availability of 2020 household survey data for Brazil allows us to test how close our previous simulations are from the observed poverty rates during 2020. Using data from the PNAD-C collected during 2020, we present a validation exercise where we compare our projections of the average changes in income between 2019 and 2020 by quintiles of the initial per capita household income with the observed values according to the PNAD-C. We present two
.

A complementary strategy to solve the problem of data scarcity for adult height is to instead use data on stunting in childhood, which has become increasingly available, particularly in low‐income countries where stunting is common and recognized as an important marker of poor early childhood development outcomes. Although country coverage of stunting data is less complete than for ASR, a benefit of stunting as a proxy for health is that there is direct evidence on the links between height in childhood and adult height. Evidence from cohort studies that track individuals over time provide evidence that height deficits in childhood persist into adulthood. This relationship can be used to create a link between stunting rates and likely future adult height, which analogously is referred to as β������,�������� . This can then be used to derive an alternative measure of the contribution of health to future adult productivity, γ�������� �STUNTING , where γ�������� �γ������ � β������,�������� . The same caveats of interpretation apply to this measure as do to γ��� .

> 17 Considering the within‐country over‐time variation controls for time‐invariant factors contributing to cross‐ country differences in height.

> 18 An underlying assumption here is that latent health is a single scalar index and that the observed indicators all respond to this single underlying measure.  See Weil (2007), Section III.C for a discussion of the consequences of relaxing this assumption.

38
Goldin, Claudia. 1995. “The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History.” In: Schultz, TP, _Investment in Women’s Human Capital and Economic Development_ . University of Chicago Press, pp. 61-90.

Holloway, Kyle, Zahra Niazi and Rebecca Rouse. 2017. _Women’s Economic Empowerment Through Financial Inclusion: A Review of Existing Evidence and Remaining Knowledge Gaps._ Innovations for Poverty Action, Financial Inclusion Program.

Ibrahim, Kasirye, 2013. "Constraints to Agricultural Technology Adoption in Uganda: Evidence from the 2005/06-2009/10 Uganda National Panel Survey," Research Series 151979, Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).

International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2016. _Investing in Women along Agribusiness Value Chains._ World Bank.

International Labour Organization (ILO). 2018a. _Women and Men in the informal economy: A statistical picture (3_<sup>_rd_</sup> _edition)._ Geneva.

ILO. 2018b. _World Employment Social Outlook: Trends 2018._ Geneva.

ILO. 2018c. _Data collection guidelines for ICSE-18._ 20th International Conference of Labour Statisticians, Room Document No. 4.

ILO. 2018d. “Exploring Light Time-Use approaches for measuring productive activities.” What Counts: Statistics on Work, Brief No. 1, August.

ILO. 2018e. “Guidelines concerning measurement of qualifications and skills mismatches of persons in employment.” ICLS/20/2018/Guidelines.

ILO. 2013. _Resolution I concerning statistics of work, employment and labour underutilization._ 19th International Conference of Labour Statisticians, Geneva.

Jayachandran, Seema. 2015. “The Roots of Gender Inequality in Developing Countries.” Annual Review of Economics 7: 63-88.

Johnston, Deborah, Sara Stevanob, Hazel J. Malapit, Elizabeth Hulla, and Suneetha Kadiyala. 2018. “Time Use as an Explanation for the Agri-Nutrition Disconnect: Evidence from Rural Areas in Low and MiddleIncome Countries.” _Food Policy_ 76: 8-18.

Jones, Nicola
**Table 1: Summary Statistics by Treatment Group**

**Panel A: Assignment to Treatment**

||Treatment<br>Group1|Treatment<br>Group2|Treatment<br>Group3|Treatment<br>Group4|Control|F-test of equality<br>p-value|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|_Variables stratified or matched on_|||||||
|Retail|0.23|0.22|0.24|0.23|0.24|0.998|
|Manufacturing|0.34|0.34|0.32|0.31|0.31|0.993|
|Services|0.43|0.44|0.44|0.46|0.45|0.996|
|Colombo|0.50|0.50|0.50|0.52|0.49|0.993|
|More than 2 paid workers|0.58|0.58|0.60|0.56|0.60|0.971|
|Says would register and sees benefit to doing so|0.49|0.48|0.48|0.49|0.48|0.999|
|Sales in last month|218570|153184|180691|160159|213310|0.497|
|Median of sales last month|90000|92500|100000|100000|90000||
|_Variables not stratified or matched on_|||||||
|Doesn't keep records|0.49|0.54|0.55|0.55|0.47|0.649|
|Years of Education of Owner|11.07|10.68|10.89|11.43|10.54|
# **Abstract**

The city-state of Singapore has achieved rapid economic development in the past by positioning itself as an efficient business hub in Asia. To remain competitive in the global knowledge economy, however, Singapore needs to move beyond efficiency by developing a strong “innovative” edge as well. This paper examines the challenges that Singapore faces in seeking to do so, through an explorative survey of 40 firms from three innovative sectors: high-tech manufacturing industries, knowledgeintensive business services (KIBS), and creative content industries.

Overall, while the survey confirms Singapore’s continuing competitive strength in efficiency infrastructure, it also finds a favorable perception of Singapore as an innovative city. Indeed, many of the industry actors indicated that an efficient business infrastructure is a pre-requisite for their locating their innovative activities in Singapore, suggesting that the relationship between innovation and efficiency is complementary rather than substitutional.

While the study found that intellectual property (IP) and its protection are widely recognized by actors in all three sectors, interesting differences exist. In particular, intellectual property protection appears to be of greater concern to the high-tech, research-and-development-intensive manufacturing sector and the creative contents sector than to the KIBS sector. Another interesting difference is that while competition in high-tech innovation tends to be global, competition in creative content tends to have a stronger local or regional dimension.

Public policy in East Asia has traditionally emphasized the development of technological innovation capabilities in the manufacturing sector. In light of our study findings, public policy makers may need to be more sensitive to the nuanced differences in policies needed to promote the new creative content industries and the associated supporting KIBS.

ii
US cents/ton-km|3.8|—|5.8|4.0|3.0|15.2|3.9|
|Average unit tariff, passenger, US cents/passenger-km|0.6|—|1.0|1.6|1.1|2.3|0.8|

_Source:_ Bullock 2009. Derived from AICD rail operators database, http://www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/tools/data. — = Data not available. n.a. = Not applicable.

## **Challenges**

Tanzania’s rail concession has run into difficulties. The Tanzania Railways Corporation (TRC) concession was awarded to India's RITES in September 2007 for a period of 25 years, giving the concessionaire a 51 percent stake in the company. The contract has since experienced labor conflicts and financial distress, due to lower than anticipated traffic flows. By the end of the first year of the concession TRC’s operational and financial performance indicators had fallen below pre-concession levels. Both the concessionaire and the government have made several proposals to renegotiate the contract, but in the end the contract was terminated.

# Air Transport

## **Achievements**

Tanzania has the fourth-largest air transport domestic market in Sub-Saharan Africa, in part due to its immense tourism attraction. The main airport in Dar es Salaam had actual passenger figures of 1.2 million in 2008 with much additional traffic related to the international airport on Zanzibar.

Tanzania stands out in the region for allowing competition in its domestic air transport market. Each of the country’s 17 domestic routes has more than one provider. As of 2007, only one other country in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa, permitted competition in its domestic air transport sector. Tanzania has also made significant progress with institutional reforms in the sector by establishing an independent 18