rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
opposition-reported 2024 election results and are consistent across all Venezuelan municipal elections that occurred during our period of analysis. These effects are not a mechanical consequence of population loss and reflect a change in the remaining vote composition, since they persist even when the electoral census is updated to reflect the population loss.

We also find that organized crime expanded in Venezuelan municipalities that were more exposed to forced displacement as network connections grew among criminal organizations operating both inside Venezuela and abroad. This criminal expansion provided the regime with a source of illicit revenue and enforcement capacity, reducing pressure for economic and political reform. The exodus facilitated this expansion through two channels. First, criminal groups were more able to enlist, coerce, and exploit displaced populations in highoutflow areas. Second, the departure of displaced individuals conveyed information about weak institutional conditions in their municipalities of origin, allowing criminal organizations to identify and exploit areas of low state presence.

Our quantitative findings align with abundant qualitative evidence from journalists and NGOs in the region, suggesting that forced displacement from Venezuela reduced transaction costs for drug and human trafficking groups and allowed them to grow while benefiting the regime. In particular, reports variously suggest that the Venezuelan government maintained power by leveraging criminal rents, as seen in the _Paraguan ́a Cartel_ and _Cartel of the Suns_ cases (Insight Crime, 2022a,b); that politicians, security forces, and drug traffickers formed symbiotic networks in which officials shielded traffickers from prosecution in exchange for financial support, political influence, and public services; that governors and mayors manipulated military and police appointments to ensure loyalty and facilitate drug trafficking; and that, at the same time, traffickers financed campaigns, mobilized votes, and filled gaps left by a collapsing state.<sup>5</sup>

> 5The Paraguan ́a Cartel is a criminal organization operating primarily in Venezuela’s Falc ́on state, particularly around the Paraguan ́a Peninsula. It is involved in large-scale drug trafficking, smuggling, and money laundering, often taking advantage of the area’
|17.3|
|Car or Truck|0.6|0.3|1.3|1.7|1.0|6.3|0.9|0.5|5.5|
|Refrigerator|0.9|0.6|1.7|0.9|0.2|5.0|0.6|0.2|5|
|Computer|0.5|0.2|1.3|0.7|0.3|3.3|0.5|0.3|3.4|
|Boat with motor|0.9|0.6|1.5|1.4|1.5|0.8|0.4|0.4|0.7|

Source: Authorss calculations using 2006 Sudan Household Health Survey, 2008 National Baseline Household Survey, and 2010 Sudan Household Health Survey.

Notes: The table is sorted by highest to lowest overall ownership in 2010.

# _Design, Implementation and Timeline_

Implementation of SSEPS involved two major phases: (1) Distributing mobile phones to individuals in households in South Sudan’s ten state capitals and training them on their use and (2) using a Nairobibased call center (Horizon Contact Center) to call respondents on a monthly basis and conduct a 15-20 minute survey. To provide an incentive for participation, individuals who successfully completed a survey were given pre-paid airtime credit for the mobile phone. Planning for the survey began in January 2010, a pilot survey was conducted in June and July of 2010, and the main implementation of the project was conducted between November 2010 and March of 2011 (Figure 2).<sup>3</sup> Specific design choices were influenced by context. South Sudan’s population is widely dispersed over rural areas without good connections to urban centers, less than 25 percent of the population has any formal education, half of households are poor
Figure 1. The Job Quality Measure for Wage Employees and the Share of Wage Employees, by Country <!-- Start of picture text --> 90%<br>80%<br>MEX LBN EGY CRIBWATUR URY<br>70% PNM<br>BRA<br>60% PHL LKA PRY DOMGEO MNG EAP<br>NEP ECU ECA<br>50% KEN IND THA HND PER IDN COLVNM LAC<br>40% RWA MMR BOL<br>PAK<br>SEN LAO MNA<br>30%<br>CIV<br>GNB BGD SAR<br>20% MLI<br>TGO MOZ<br>SSA<br>10% BFA BENNER<br>0%<br>1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00<br>Average JQM<br>Share of wage employees<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Estimates based on multiple labor force and household surveys (see annex table A1) Despite the positive correlation between the scores on job quality and the share of the wage employed, figure 1 also shows that job quality may vary significantly among countries with similar shares of the wage employed, and the share of the wage employed may vary considerably among countries with similar job quality scores. For example, Bolivia (BOL), the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (LAO), and Türkiye (TUR) have similar JQMs, at 3.16, 3.19, and 3.25, respectively, but different shares of the wage employed, at 40 percent, 33 percent, and 69 percent, respectively.

Focusing on job quality among the wage employed alone, however, leaves out a substantial share of the population in developing countries who are self-employed or unpaid workers. To evaluate the extent of the change in the results by including other categories, the JQM is weighted by
3 emissions. The model presented in this section was developed by Heil and Selden (1998), following Holtz-Eakin and Selden (1995) in predicting per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and using the projections to develop business-as-usual scenarios of per capita emissions.<sup>3</sup> Emissions are modeled as a quadratic function of GDP (the cubic term in levels was not significant).<sup>4</sup> Data for carbon dioxide emissions (1951-92) come from the sixth release of the DOE NDP-030 data set of the U.S. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Boden, Marland, and Andres 1995). These data include all major sources of anthropogenic carbon emissions, except those from land-use changes which are not sufficiently developed to be included in this study.' PPP-adjusted GDP figures (1951-92) are provided by the Penn World Tables Mark 5.6 (Summers and Heston 1991). The resulting uneven panel includes 135 countries (4491 observations) representing nearly 90 percent of world population and three-fourths of carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture.<sup>6</sup> Denoting per capita emissions (in kgs) by p, and per capita PPP-adjusted GDP by _y,,,_ the estimated emissions model is (standard errors in parentheses): R<sup>2</sup> =0.84 n=4491 where a, are fixed country effects and d, fixed year effects (see Heil and Selden 1998 for estimation 3See Schmalensee, Stoker, and Judson (1998) for an alternative model for predicting carbon emissions based on GDP.

4The model used here for distribution analysis is the baseline quadratic in levels model. The quadratic in logarithms model yields considerably less convergence in per capita emissions over the forecasting period, but the authors believe the levels model more accurately represents future trajectories (Heil and Selden 1998).

5The omission of land-use emissions alters both the emissions totals and distributions. In general, the lower income countries currently have higher
Policy Research Working Paper 9023

# **Abstract**

The objectives of this study are to understand the determinants of reservation wages and measure the gap between reservation and market wages in North Macedonia. The study makes use of recently collected information on reservation wages in the Labor Force Survey 2016 and 2017. The analysis relies on ordinary least squares, propensity score matching, Heckman-corrected estimates, and panel fixed effects. The results suggest that it is mainly supply factors that shape reservation wages in the country. Higher education achievement sizably increases future wage expectations, while age and longer spells of unemployment reduce them.

Demand factors are found to be insignificant for reservation wage formation. Observed by skill level, the results suggest that low-skilled individuals consistently value their skills higher than what the market offers and set too high expectations. These circumstances are aggravated in cases where the household is well-off and/or receives remittances. By contrast, highly skilled individuals, despite maintaining a positive reservation wage gap, have a propensity to accept market wages even when they fall below their reservation wage, likely because these workers fear rapid depreciation of their skills.

This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at aoviedo@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World
disaster occurrence dummy was created using the EM-DAT’s International Natural Disaster Database created by the Center for research on Epidemiology of Disasters.

# III.4 Empirical Specification of the Baseline Regression

In the baseline regressions, the relationship between statistical capacity and the magnitude of same-year forecast errors is explored using two models across three different samples of forecasters. The first sample is from the World Bank’s _Global Economic Prospects_ January Forecasts (GEP), the second sample is from the International Monetary Fund’s _World Economic Outlook_ January Forecasts (WEO). Both samples cover the same 126 countries from 2010 to 2020. A panel model is estimated using the absolute value of GDP growth forecast error of same-year forecasts as the outcome variable regressed on the lagged log of statistical capacity and other covariates as presented in equation (1): A F 1 L L 2 L L L 3 A + 4 I I 5 L L L 6 (1) ii,tt ii,tt−1 ii,tt−1 ii,tt AAF AAF = αα+ ββ LLII + ββ LLFF + ββ AA∆L LLFFL LLFFppFFppAA ii,tt ii,tt−1 ii,tt−1 tt ii,tt Where ββ FFppFFI is for country and IIL IIppF + ββ is for year. The dependent variable is the absolute value of GDP growth + ββ BBL mm + ττ + εε forecast errors ( A F ), defined as forecasted GDP growth minus actual GDP growth. A negative forecast error signifies that forecasted GDP growth was below actual GDP growth. The main regressor is pp FF the log of lagged Statistical Capacity Index ( AAF AAF L L , as measured by the World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator (SCI). Following Eicher et al. (2019), we expect lower quality data to drive larger forecast errors. The identification strategy leverages cross-country variation across time in both forecast errors and the LLII) SCI. There are two main concerns of endogeneity. One is the possibility of simultaneity bias or reverse causality. It seems
assumptions and less prone to biases. Second, while most previous studies analyze access to childcare in relation to traditional labor market outcomes, this paper complements that approach with time-use analysis to validate and enrich the labor market impacts, and to provide a more accurate depiction of the double burden of paid work and unpaid work on mothers of young children. In addition, it takes advantage of a unique feature of the dataset to analyze childcare performed as a secondary activity, capturing an important aspect of caregiving for working mothers: that a large part of childcare constitutes secondary supervision as opposed to full and active involvement in children’s activities throughout the day.<sup>5</sup> Finally, this study uses a unique dataset from the low-income neighborhoods of a megacity where FLFP has declined in recent years, with a particular focus on a population group that is constrained in their access to childcare and in their ability to withdraw from the labor force due to their socioeconomic status. Hence, the findings have direct policy relevance as they pertain to the urban context where FLFP trends have reversed and a population group that is most likely to benefit from targeted interventions to ease the double burden on mothers.

# **2. Data and Methodology**

# _2.1. Data_

This paper uses the Dhaka Low-Income Area Gender, Inclusion, and Poverty Survey data collected by the World Bank in low-income neighborhoods of Dhaka in 2018 (see Kotikula, Hill, and Raza 2019). The dataset is representative of slums and low-income areas of the Dhaka City Corporations (North and South) and the low-income areas of the Greater Dhaka Statistical Metropolitan Area. The slums include informal settlements listed in the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’ slum census of 2013/14. The low-income areas include non-slum census enumeration areas with a poverty rate of 8 percent or above. The households were sampled using a two-stage stratification process based on neighborhood population size (slums) and poverty rate (low-income neighborhoods).<sup>6</sup> In addition
# **Online Data Appendix: Not for Publication**

The Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) is an ongoing longitudinal survey. So far five waves have been fielded. The first wave was fielded in 1993, and the second, third, fourth and fifth waves were fielded in 1997, 2000, 2007 and 2014, respectively. At the time of the first wave, 7224 households were interviewed and it represented 83 % of the national population of Indonesia covering 13 out of the 27 provinces (Frankenberg et al., 1995). In the subsequent waves, the sample size grew because others joined the sampled households either through marriage and births. An appealing feature of the IFLS is its low-attrition rate (Strauss et al., 2016).

Below we provide detailed discussion and rationale on how we have obtained different variables from the IFLS data:

**Children Sample:** As noted in data section, our primary mobility sample is based on children who are 18 to 40 years old in 2014 (wave 5). We restrict the sample to 18 to 40 years old of the fifth wave for two reasons. First, these individuals were in school at some point during 1990s and 2000s. Therefore, we can use the previous waves to estimate the effects on schooling investment. Secondly, only in the fifth wave, the IFLS started to collect Raven Test scores a measure of “fluid intelligence” for all adults. Since we include cognitive ability in much of our analysis, we have chosen to use the fifth wave for our children sample.

**Child Years of Education:** In order to obtain the child years of education, we use two sources of data in the fifth wave of the IFLS: book 3A and roster. Book 3A has education information for anyone who is 15 years and older. If the 18 to 40-year-old household member do not have education reported in book 3A, we use the education reported in roster.

1
the relatively higher value patches of land (e.g. moist depressions in drylands) that are encroached first, which leads to a reduction in the benefits to other users out of proportion to the share of common land lost. Those who encroach on commons tend to be non-poor farmers with more family labor and access to complementary inputs to enable them to farm the land effectively, and who are able to persuade or bribe the local _patwari_ to manipulate the record of rights in land in their favor (Ahluwalia 1997). The lack of clarity regarding local land records, and the high cost and long duration of litigation, leaves other land users and panchayati raj institutions with few options in challenging instances of encroachment<sup>28</sup> . As and when efforts are made to update land records in revisional surveys and to improve land administration systems (e.g. through title registration where appropriate), it is essential to consider ways of handling common land so as to be better able to prove instances of encroachment. If attention is not specifically paid to the inclusion of commons in a unified land administration system, efforts to improve land conveyancing systems may actually facilitate rather than hinder further encroachment on commons by the non-poor at the expense of socially excluded groups.

- 27 Financial subsidies or matching grants are commonly used to induce people to contribute their labor for various purposes, which does little to ensure the sustainability of interventions once the subsidies are withdrawn (Kerr _et al._ 1996, Kolavalli 1998).

- 28 Judicial interference has been suggested to be even more important in inhibiting successful challenges to instances of encroachment. Courts have become accustomed to granting 'interim stay orders' preventing the eviction of a private party, without the opportunity for local voices to be heard. Whether or not they are poor, private parties (e.g. individual farmers) are generally perceived by higher-level courts to be the 'underdog' in cases concerning government land. A whole category of lawyers specializes in stay orders and constitutes
<!-- Start of picture text --> 200<br>180<br>160<br>140<br>120<br>100<br>80<br>60<br>40<br>20<br>0<br>0 50 100 150 200<br>Price subsidy (% Revenues)<br>(% Revenues)<br>Operational Inefficiencies<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic Power Tariff Database.

# **Overall, how would we rate Sub-Saharan African power tariffs?**

A scorecard combining four of the key goals in the design of power tariffs—cost recovery, efficiency, equity and affordability—illustrates the challenges of simultaneously achieving these sometimes conflicting objectives. For each of these objectives a quantitative indicator is used based on the foregoing analysis. Cost recovery is measured as the ratio of the current average effective tariff to the average historic cost of power production. Efficiency is measured as the ratio of the current average effective tariff to the Long Run Marginal Cost of power production. Affordability is measured as the percentage of households that are able to purchase a subsistence level of consumption of 50 kWh/month at the prevailing average effective tariff without spending more than 5 percent of their household budgets. Equity is measured as the share of the subsidy captured by households living under the poverty line divided by the percentage of households in the population that live under the poverty line.

The analysis shows that the average scores for the sample are 78 percent for cost recovery, 82 percent for efficiency, and 87 percent for affordability. And for equity the average score is 0.29 indicating a highly regressive distributional incidence, relative to a score of 1.00 for a tariff that is neutral in distributional terms (table 10).

36
caregivers for the elderly. However, in 1995, there was a massive expansion of pension coverage. While previous pension schemes were limited to workers in the formal labor force, the 1995 legislation provided compulsory coverage to self-employed individuals in rural areas, including farmers and fishermen. This marked a significant shift given that nearly a quarter of the workers in Korea were self-employed at the time. To finance this effort, every citizen was required to contribute 9.5% of their income to the pension program (Ebenstein 2014).

Ebenstein (2014) tests the hypothesized impact of social insurance on son preference using Korean census data on births observed between 1990 and 2000 for couples where the father was at least 35 years of age, and the mother was at least 30 years of age. He uses a difference-in-difference approach to estimate this impact. He looks at how the expansion of pension coverage to selfemployed workers affected the male fraction of births, after controlling for changes in the male fraction of births borne by salaried workers who were already covered by the pension scheme. His difference-in-difference estimate shows that the introduction of mandatory social security was associated with a 2.21 percentage point decrease in the male fraction of births between 1990-1994 and 1995-2000.

This evidence suggests that parents in Korea altered their preference for sons in response to the policy change. However, Ebenstein (2014) himself notes that this analysis is not without its limitations. The data for trends in births prior to 1995 are not extensive enough to ensure that the key assumption for difference-in-difference estimation - pre-treatment parallel trends between the treatment group (self-employed workers) and control group (salaried workers) - holds.

Aside from the debate on the impact of enacted policy changes, it is important to highlight the legislative measures that the Korean government did not take until the mid-2000s, after sex ratios had started to normalize. The male family head system or _hojuk_ (the basis for patrilineal succession) was not abolished in Korea up until 2005/06, despite active efforts by women’s groups
The fast and wide diffusion of electricity was helped also by cheap prices. In Vietnam, the 2019 average retail electricity price was about 8.1 US cents/kWh, compared to 14 US cents/kWh in the United States and 31 US cents/kWh in Germany in 2018 (Phu, 2020). These low tariffs are maintained by government regulations. A subsidised scheme charges lower tariffs from small or marginalized users with financial difficulties and compensates with higher tariffs from large consumers of electricity (Phu, 2020).

The cheaper electricity in Vietnam compared to its neighboring countries had also an impact on the industrial development, fostering investments in energy-intensive industries, such as mining, steel and cement. As a result, Vietnam is currently the largest steel producer in Southeast Asia and the eighth largest cement exporter worldwide. However, Vietnam's steel and cement producers are highly energy inefficient and less competitive with respect to their regional counterparts (Hien, 2019). Inefficiencies depend also on Vietnam’s source of energy, which is a mix of oil, coal, natural gas and hydropower.

One of the consequences of the rapid growing energy consumption, is the inability of Vietnam to selfsupply its domestic demand. Since 2015, Vietnam became a net energy importer with negative potential consequences for energy security. The fast growth in energy consumption corresponded also to an increase of emissions per capita of 24.7% (GSO data). The 2018 index of renewable energy on total primary energy supply decreased by 10.1% (GSO data). This makes it challenging to meet Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement which target is a reduction of 8% GHG emissions by 2030. The most promising renewable energy sources for Vietnam are hydro, wind and solar energy, with contributions from biomass, biogas, geothermal and solid wastes (Shem et al., 2019). However, their market competitiveness is strongly challenged by the low electricity and coal prices.

In correspondence to the diffusion of electricity, also the