rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
recent World Bank support to public sector reforms against the backdrop of fluctuating government commitment. However, long-standing involvement of team members can also have drawbacks. In one case, the World Bank had a significant and long track-record of supporting public sector reforms. Because these had been seen and reported as successful, emerging disappointment about results and heightened concern about governance was challenging to acknowledge for some time. This became easier as the team‘s composition changed.

In sum, project documents and interviews reflect that teams make some efforts to understand political economy challenges and likely dynamics over time. However, to date, the majority of these efforts are limited and implicit in nature and do not involve explicit analysis. Interviews and the review of ex-post assessments of operations also reveal incentives to under-state political economy risks in ex ante project documents; as well as some challenges with the implementation of mitigation measures aimed at increasing the demand from citizens and NGOs for public sector reforms. In several cases, experience gave Task Team Leaders a sense of potential challenges, as well as how the government‘s commitment was evolving over time. The final sub-section of the portfolio review drills deeper into the question of whether there are indicators that greater attention to political economy variables pays off in terms of operational performance.

# **III.3.2 Potential pay-offs from more explicit attention to political economy**

Several teams reported explicit adjustment in operational design and/or implementation based on their discussions about likely political economy challenges. Two teams that had invested in political economy analysis suggested the following implications for the project design: seeking a deliberate balance across project components, agreeing on rules of the game and being clear and open about these, making efforts to reach out to the parliamentary opposition<sup>42</sup> , agreeing with the government to undertake regular surveys of citizens‘ opinion on satisfaction with service delivery, and narrowing the scope of the project to what was deemed feasible based on lessons learned from earlier projects and the current analysis of reform context
Policy Research Working Paper 10878

# **Abstract**

In recent years, Myanmar has witnessed considerable economic and political instability, leading many young people, particularly the higher-skilled, to consider migrating abroad for improved prospects. This paper employs an innovative method to quantify migration intentions among high-skilled youth by analyzing the take-up of migration at different wage premia. A randomized survey experiment then evaluates how hypothetical political and economic stabilization scenarios impact these intentions. The findings show that 35 percent of the respondents would be willing to take a similar job abroad for pay equal to their current income. Randomization within the survey indicates that political stabilization would potentially reduce high-skilled workers’ desire to migrate by about 15 percent, especially among men, those living in high-conflict areas, and persons with lower absolute income but higher perceived relative income. In contrast, prospects of economic stabilization do not have a significant effect on migration intentions. In the absence of political stability and a reduction in conflict, economic stabilization is unlikely to reduce talent outflows among the young.

This paper is a product of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted atyghorpade@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the
collected in the nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey, there is no direct information on the socio-economic status of the siblings. However, by using information about the respondents, it is possible to have an idea of the socio-economic status of the family. One variable indicates whether the respondent lived in a rural or an urban environment during her childhood. For women born before 1975, this allows to determine whether her family was of urban or rural origin. Given the large internal migrations that occurred under the Khmer Rouge, the strategy is less reliable for younger women. Similarly, for women who could have attended secondary school before

> 6 This point was already made by Heuveline (1998). Sliwinski (1995), based on survivors’ accounts, provides a breakdown of mortality by type of deaths (executions, famine, missing, natural and war). An interesting comparison with “normal” mortality rates by age and gender before the mortality crisis can be made by looking at the estimates by Migozzi (1973) for 1958-59 in Cambodia: at that time, the age pattern of mortality displayed the usual J-shape with very high mortality for young children, declining rapidly until adolescence and increasing thereafter, first slowly until age 50 and then more steeply. Similarly, Migozzi (1973) estimates that, because of maternal mortality, between ages 15 to 40, women were more at risk than men in 1958-59.

6
weather events in<br>neighbors economy LICs<br>US$ 1999 2018 Percent of GDP Number of events<br>MIC threshold UMIC threshold 30<br>60 Extreme temperatures<br>4000 2001 Storms<br>50<br>3000 20 2019 Droughts<br>40 Floods<br>2000<br>30<br>10<br>1000 20<br>0 10<br>Landlocked 2020 2020 0<br>2001 LICs Landlocked Landlocked Non-LIC 2001 LICs 2020 LICs 0<br>turned MICs non-FCV EMDEs turned MICs 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s<br>MICs LICs 2020<br>2001 LICs LICs turned Continued 2020 non- FCV LICs FCV LICs<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: The Emergency Events Database—Universite Catholique de Louvain, World Bank, World Development Indicators, World Bank Doing Business.

Note. “LICs turned MICs” are those LICs in 2001 that have achieved MIC per capita incomes by 2020; “Continued LICs” are LICs that have remained LICs since 2001.

A. Bars for 2001 “LICs turned MICs” reflect shares in 2001, bars for 2020 LICs reflect latest shares. Due to data limitations, official FCV country classifications for 2001 are not available. This share is based on the World Bank FCV country classification of the 2005/06 fiscal year that has been amended to include countries that had the presence of UN peace-keeping missions between 1999 and 2001.

B. Blue bars represent share of 2001 LICs in 2001, red bars represent share of 2020 LICs in 2017. X-axis reflects ranges of LIC per capita incomes relative to that of the US, in percent. 2001 LICs includes 59 countries, 2020 LICs includes 26 countries.

C. Unweighted averages. 2001 LICs, “LICs turned MICs” and “Continued LICs” include 62, 35 and 27 countries, respectively. Non-FCV and FCV LICs include 14, and 18 countries, respectively.

D. Unweighted averages. Neighbors of LICs
5 seroprevalence) and perceptions on ART, and thus lead to biased estimates of disinhibition behaviors. This source of bias remains a concern with the results of Cohen et al. (2009) despite the careful design of their field survey<sup>6</sup> .

Controlling for unobserved individual characteristics, we find suggestive evidence of disinhibition behaviors: individuals who are more aware of ART engage more in risky sex. Moreover, men and women respond differently to the perceived changes in risk. In particular, risky behaviors increase for men who believe, wrongly, that AIDS can be cured, while risky behaviors increase for women who believe, correctly, that ART can control AIDS but cannot cure it. These findings have two main implications. First, our results suggest that prevention programs that provide the correct information on ART may reduce disinhibition behaviors for men, although given the small and declining percentage of individuals believing wrongly that AIDS can be cured (see table 1, 8% in 2007 and 6% in 2008) the impact of such a program is bound to be limited. Prevention messages for women, however, need to go beyond the correct information on ART and stress the importance of safe sexual behaviors. The second implication is that to effectively control AIDS, prevention programs should not be traded away in order to scale up access to treatment.

The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. We begin by providing a conceptual framework to motivate our empirical results in section 2. Next, we discuss our survey, and show a summary of the main variables used in the analysis in section 3. We discuss our empirical strategy in section 4, and report our estimation results in sections 5. Section 6 concludes.

> 6Cohen et al. (2009) conduct their field survey in two steps. First, they administer a survey including questions on sexual behaviors and perceptions on ART. The second step consists of HIV testing of respondents. Note that individuals who knew their sero-prevalence were excluded from the sample. The
# f. RBLs by interest rates and fees

We could only identify information on the interest rate for 17 of the 30 cases surveyed. 7 of these have fixed rates, while 10 have floating interest rates.

To the extent that interest rate information was available, Chinese policy banks offered fixed interest rates as low as 0.25 percent on RBLs, as in the case of a 2009 loan made by China Eximbank to the Republic of Congo [#18]. Interest rates were as high as 2 percent in Niger and Zimbabwe. Among the RBLs reviewed, all fixed interest rate RBLs made by Chinese lenders were made by China Eximbank. Floating interest rates generally use the London Inter-bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) as the reference rate, with rates ranging from Libor+ 1.0 percent [#9] to Libor+ 2.95 percent [#14]. The Korean loan to the DRC has the lowest weighted interest rate in our data set with 0.01% [#10].

We only have interest rate data for commodity trader loans in the case of the two Glencore loans to Chad which had an interest rate initially set at Libor+6.6% and Libor+6.625% [#7] & [#8]. These loans were first renegotiated in 2015, when they were combined, their maturities were extended and their interest rate was adjusted to Libor+6.75%. The second renegotiation happened in 2018, when the base interest spread was set at 2% until 2021, and 3% thereafter (+ additional 2% of deferred interest payments).24 We have little information on fees. Ghana’s 2018 RBL from Sinohydro [#15] reveals that on top of an annual interest of LIBOR + 2.8 percent, there is also a requirement to pay a flat management fee of 0.7 percent, a commitment fee of 0.5 percent per annum and a one-time China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) premium
from erratic weather patterns one can be quite certain that the change in the patterns of climatic variability associated with climate change is likely to reduce the effectiveness of the current coping mechanisms even more and thus increase household vulnerability further. We use two separate nationally representative household surveys—the first two waves of the Mexican Family Life

> 3 According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a narrow definition of climate refers to the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of quantities such as temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time ranging from months to thousands of years.  The norm is 30 years as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  Climate is different from weather which refers to atmospheric conditions in a given place at a specific time.  The term ―climate change‖ is used to indicate a significant variation (in a statistical sense) in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability for an extended period of time, usually decades or longer (Wilkinson 2006).

> 4  Other studies relying on the perceptions of respondents about the incidence of different types of shocks, such as floods, droughts, freeze, fires and hurricanes include Garcia Verdu (2002), Skoufias (2007) and de la Fuente (2010). None of these earlier studies, however, make use of actual meteorological data.

2
_Rural-urban gradient in Latin America and the Caribbean_ _page_ 2 obviously different. So it is natural to seek a binary indicator of rural vs. urban location and to use it for analytic and policy purposes.

There is no international standard for making this dichotomy, and indeed the United Nations argues that “given the variety of situations in the countries of the world, it is not possible or desirable to adopt uniform criteria to distinguish urban areas from rural areas” (United Nations 2002, p. 106). Accordingly, the official United Nations statistics on urban and rural populations are based on the inconsistent national standards.

Table 1 reproduces the United Nations’ compilation of rurality estimates for most LAC countries, together with the national criteria for urban areas. Almost all countries have adopted an urban classification related to the size or characteristics of settlements. Some use a minimum population, typically 1500 to 2500 people; others designate as urban the administrative seat of a municipio or equivalent; others use as criteria the presence of infrastructure such as paved roads, street lights, schools and medical facilities.

On reflection, however, it is clear that an urban/rural dichotomy is an oversimplification. The two emblematic images – isolated farm, thriving metropolis -- represent poles on a continuum. Life changes along a variety of dimensions, as one journeys from the most remote forest outpost through fields and pastures, past tiny hamlets, through small towns with weekly farm markets, into intensively cultivated areas near larger towns and small cities, eventually reaching the center of a cosmopolitan megacity. The changes may sometimes be abrupt, more often gradual. Agriculture declines as a source of income and employment. Land uses tend to shift, as von Thünen described, from forestry to pasture to crops to vegetables, becoming more intensive as larger cities are approached. The proportion of indigenous people may decrease, reflecting historical patterns of settlement or exclusion. Access to infrastructure, to social services and to nonfarm employment all increase, and with them population density and incomes. Along this
Muravyev, A. (2010). Evolution of Employment Protection Legislation in the USSR, CIS and Baltic States, 1985-2009, _IZA Discussion Paper_ No. 5365.

Nikolovova, P., F. Pertold and M. Vozar (2010). Informal Economy in the Czech and Slovak Republics Microeconometric Analysis of Labor Force Transitions. Background paper for ― _In_ _from the Shadow: Integrating Europe’s Informal Labor_ ‖ World Bank, Washington DC, mimeo. OECD (2009). _Is Informal Normal? Towards More and Better Jobs_ . Paris: OECD.

Oviedo, A.M., M.R. Thomas and K. Karakurum-Ozdemir (2009). Economic Informality: Causes, Costs and Policies - A Literature Survey. _World Bank Working Paper_ No. 167.

Perry, G., W. Maloney, O. Arias, P. Fajnzylber, A. Mason and J. Saavedra-Chanduvi (2007).

_Informality: Exit and Exclusion_ . Washington D.C.: The World Bank Rabe-Hesketh, S., and A. Skrondal (2008). Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling Using Stata. 2nd ed. College Station, TX: Stata Press.

Riedmann, A. and G. Fischer (2008). _Undeclared work in the European Union_ . Special Eurobarometer 284: Report.

- Say, F. (2011), Does employment protection help immigrants? Evidence from European labour markets. _Labour Economics_ (forthcoming, doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2011.01.006 )

- Schneider, F. (2005). Shadow Economies around the World: What Do We Really Know. _European Journal of Political Economy_ 21, 598–642.

Schneider, F., A. Buehn and C.E. Montenegro (2010). Shadow Economies All over the World: New

- Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007 (Revised Version). _World Bank Policy Research Working Paper_ No. 5356.

Schneider, F. and D. Enste (2000). Shadow Economies:
Policy Research Working Paper 10782

# **Abstract**

This paper provides one of the first estimates of elasticities of substitution across suppliers within the same product. This paper estimates these elasticities using new real-time administrative tax data on firm-to-firm transactions, with product-level prices and quantities, leveraging geographic and temporal variation from India’s Covid-19 lockdowns to derive causal estimates of these elasticities. Suppliers are highly complementary even at this granular level, with an estimated elasticity of 0.55. The paper shows that the quality of institutions, input specificity, inventories, and time horizons explain the low elasticity. These firm-level complementarities amplify the propagation of negative shocks through production networks, and make connected firms important for shock propagation. In policy counterfactuals, the paper shows that given these complementarities, allowing more connected firms to operate in the face of shocks mitigates output declines non-linearly with the size of the productivity shock.

This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at dghose@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
government. So the outcome of this comparison is unclear on _a priori_ grounds.

As described in section 2, to simulate an un-targeted transfer scheme we take the same estimated gross cost of the EGS and allocate it uniformly to all, whether poor or not. We assume that 10% of the budget available for transfers must be set aside to cover administrative costs.<sup>15</sup> We provide calculations for two assumptions about the extent of cost recovery from the assets

> 15 In a survey of administrative costs for transfer programs requiring individual assessment in Latin America, Grosh (1995) reports a median administrative cost of 9% of the budget.

20
>th</sup> to 90<sup>th</sup> percentiles using an unbalanced panel of monthly information for 36 EMDEs between January 2000 and December 2017. Similarly, Figure 7, Panel D shows the estimated _β_ s for 10<sup>th</sup> to 90<sup>th</sup> percentiles for each World Bank region.<sup>9</sup>

**_Rolling regressions to estimate the nexus strength over time._** To estimate how the Nexus indicator changes over time, we estimated the model in (1) using rolling median regressions <u>for each country (without country fixed effects) using a 24‐month rolling window. Figure 7,</u> Panels E and F show the cross‐country median of the estimated country‐level β s for each month, and by region as of December 2017.

> 8 For more details see The Credit Research Initiative of the National University of Singapore (2018), Merton (1974), and Duan (2010).

> 9 Country coverage: EAP: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam; ECA: Croatia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine; LAC: Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru, the República Bolivariana de Venezuela; MENA: the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia; SAR: India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka; SSA: Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa.

23
). Two-thirds (62.8 percent) of the population is rural (World Bank, 2021a), and Pakistan also has one of the lowest gender parity indices in primary school (girls’ enrollment compared to boys’ enrollment) in the world: 0.88 in Pakistan vs. 0.98 in low- and middle-income countries and 0.99 in South Asia (World Bank, 2021b). Learning poverty, which measures the share of school-age children unable to comprehend a simple text at age 10, is higher in Pakistan (75 percent) than in low- and middle-income countries (53 percent); and the rate is estimated to increase to 79 percent because of COVID-19 setbacks (Geven & Hasan, 2020). In short, too many vulnerable children, including those living in poverty, in rural areas, and with uneducated or distressed parents are at risk of starting life at a disadvantage, which has repercussions throughout the life course. Addressing inequities by supporting child development and school readiness skills, especially among vulnerable populations, is an important step in reducing learning poverty and improving child and human capital outcomes.

Data on the status of early child development (ECD) in Pakistan are incomplete and, in the case of children under 3 years of age, data are largely missing. ECD data are not collected at the country-wide level, are only available for a small subset of children—those aged 3-4 years—and 2