rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
# **3.1 The Great Depression**

The Great Depression was triggered in the United States by the Wall Street crash in October 1929 and became worldwide. It resulted in a massive loss of income, record unemployment rates and output loss, especially in industrialized nations. In the United States unemployment hit almost 25 percent at the peak of the crisis in 1933.

In the United States during the Great Depression, a large fiscal stimulus package was introduced to increase funds to public works. Noticeably, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates down to zero in an attempt to manage the negative real effects of the financial crisis. The New Deal used historic spending to fund entirely new categories of forward-looking projects: delivering clean water, electricity, and telephone service to people for the first time; demonstrating mega-project capabilities such as New York City’s Lincoln Tunnel; and reinvigorating the civic commons through projects such as San Antonio’s River Walk and Charleston. Programs such as the Works Progress Administration<sup>5</sup> and the Tennessee Valley Authority were key elements of the government’s economic stimulus. The Works Progress Administration granted state and local government funds to provide work relief and direct relief and to build and maintain infrastructure. The Tennessee Valley Authority provided jobs and electricity to the rural Tennessee River Valley that spans seven states in the South as a part of Depression-era New Deal programs. In addition, Congress passed a series of infrastructure bills to build major bridges, roads, and other improvements such as Hoover Dam in Nevada and the Golden Gate Bridge in California. The bills not only met the needs of modernization but also supplied jobs during the crisis. About 85 percent of the grants were used to hire the unemployed on work relief jobs. These jobs include maintenance activities such as building sidewalks, local roads, schools, and improvements in the local infrastructure (Fishback _et al._ , 2004).

Using data on New Deal Grants to each US county from 1933 to 1939, Fishback _et al.
February 2016 to the August 2020 Sakernas rounds, effectively providing about 3.2 million working age (aged 15–64) individuals for analysis.

Our examination of the effects of the pandemic on net employment illustrates that, six months into the pandemic (by August 2020), men of all age groups are less likely to be employed, while women are more likely to be employed, except those aged 19–29. With a 2.4 percent increase from pre-pandemic average employment participation rates for women and a 3.0 percent decrease for men, the COVID-19 pandemic has the effect of closing the gender gap in employment participation in Indonesia by about 14 percent. The findings suggest that women are more likely to enter employment for the first time following the onset of the pandemic and are also less likely to become unemployed. The overall increase in female employment suggests an “added workers effect”, with the entry of these additional workers necessitated by the impact of the economic shock on households. This is seen in the relatively low educational attainment of the new entrants and the low quality of employment they tend to engage in.

The pandemic has affected the quality of employment, with both women and men shifting toward more informal employment. We observe a lower likelihood of working as employees or working in white-collar occupations, while there is a higher likelihood of both women and men becoming casual workers or unpaid family workers. Consistent with this shift toward informality, we find that college-educated graduates are less likely to be employed. We also find that the increase in female employment is primarily driven by women in rural areas, while urban women are neither more nor less likely to be employed during the pandemic. Similarly, among males, negative employment effects are concentrated in the urban areas, with urban males being twice less likely to be employed than their rural counterparts. Moreover, the job search has also become more challenging for all sub-populations, with the duration of the unemployed spell increasing.

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). In most of the paper, unless otherwise noted, the analysis restricts the sample to firms with 5 or more employees, which was a threshold used in most countries for which data is available.<sup>3</sup> Three main indicators regarding the digital response by firms were collected. First, whether the firm has started or increased the use of digital platforms in response to the pandemic. Second, if the firm invested in the implementation or use of digital solutions; and third, the share of sales done through online channels. Throughout the paper, analyses explore how firms differed in their digital response towards the pandemic, and the possible implications of such responses.

For the analysis, the paper will focus on the 57 countries<sup>4</sup> with data on digital changes. In total, there is information on 65,130 firms, where 25,255 are panel firms. This feature of the data allows to . analyze how digital changes happened since the start of the pandemic<sup>5</sup> The first wave of surveys

> 3The WBES uses the threshold of 5+ employees.

> 4Countries include: Argentina, Bangladesh, Benin, Brazil (Sao Paulo), Bulgaria, Cambodia, Chile, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, the Arab Republic of Egypt, El Salvador, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Jordan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lesotho, Lithuania, Madagascar, Malaysia, Malta, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Paraguay, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Senegal, Sierra Leone, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Somalia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zambia, and Zimbabwe)

> 5Not all countries implemented the three rounds of surveys. Within each country, some firms were observed during

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# Need to promote holistic ECD programs

Despite the challenges, Pakistan already has programs and platforms in place to effectively promote holistic ECD (Devercelli et al., 2022). Pilot interventions have shown that low-cost mental health interventions such as the Thinking Healthy Programme, delivered by community health workers, show modest benefits including reduced maternal depression and disability, improved knowledge about play and development, and improved breastfeeding practices (Rahman et al., 2012; Sikander et al., 2019). Community-based health interventions have been shown to promote newborn survival, improve children’s health, and reduce stunting (Lassi et al., 2016; Khan et al., 2019; Yousafzai et al., 2018). In addition, teaching stimulation and nurturing care in parenting programs delivered through community health services and family physicians has been shown to significantly benefit children’s development and care in Pakistan (Khan et al., 2019; Yousafzai et al., 2014).

Resources and attention directed toward families with children under age 3 who provide inadequate psychosocial stimulation would boost outcomes for this vulnerable population and would engender greater opportunities for healthy development and learning longitudinally. This population is likely to be larger than it appears in this study because the sample excludes the most disenfranchised families, those who lack the resources to have a cell phone and are therefore likely among the poorest households. Providing caregivers—including the more than one-tenth of the population lacking early stimulation knowledge and skills—with the support needed, for example, through parenting programs or health-based services, to responsively engage with their young children will facilitate disadvantaged children’s likelihood of reaching their developmental and productivity potential.

# Implications for data collection

Better and more data are needed through national and provincial surveys to explore the nexus between ECD services and children’s cognitive and social-emotional development. At present, household surveys such as PSLM, MICS and National Nutrition Survey, along with administrative data on service uptake, allow for analyses of some ECD outcomes, such as nutritional status and ECE
the very recent work of Hartzmark and Sussman (2019) found that investors largely value sustainability using the introduction of the ESG rating by Morningstar in 2016 as a natural experiment to investigate asymmetries in the fund flows of mutual fund with different ESG rating scores.

> 9 Other studies that explore the influence of religiosity in business related context and investment decision making process also employ survey data. See, for example, Adeel et al.(2022), who explored the role of religiosity in the context of financial reporting and auditors judgment. Anglin et al. (2022) examine the role of religiosity within microfinance campaigns through a field-study.
respond. Carbon pricing could in this world act initially like an adverse aggregate supply shock creating involuntary unemployment (ruled out by assumption in the neoclassical case above). But there would also be a case for Keynesian deficit-financed spending, including on low-carbon plant and equipment, to increase employment.

# **3. Empirics:  Estimates of potential ‘green’ job creation**

A number of surveys have collated estimates of ‘job creation potential’ in green activities variously defined and discussed their methodological strengths and weaknesses, including GHK (2009), Fankhauser et al. (2008), GCN (2010) and the World Bank (undated). Kammen at al. (2004), Wei et al. (2010), and the World Bank (undated) have reviewed the literature on employment creation in the energy sector, including jobs in renewable energy. The estimates covered use a range of methods, reflecting the different definitions of green job creation discussed above. As GHK (2009) notes, “The estimates are not comparable due to:

- Geographical differences – EU, US, Member State, global;

- Sectoral differences – often focusing solely on individual sectors or sub-sectors;

- Gross and net effects;

- Inclusion / exclusion of whole value chain effects; and

- Differing assumptions concerning economic growth and the effect of existing business as usual policies.”

GHK tabulate results from 32 different studies; most used data from the EU or specific member states, seven used US data and four global data. No studies explicitly covered developing countries per se. Wei et al. (2010) cover 15 different studies, only one of which explicitly mentioned a developing country (Brazil). The World Bank review of energy and employment tabulates results from 33 studies, of which five focused on some aspect of energy in developing countries. Five out of the 15 studies covered by Wei et al, 14 out of the 32 studies covered by GHK and 25 out of the 33 studies covered by the World Bank are dated
and biodiesel in the United States and EU [12]. They find that between 2001 and 2006 these drivers were responsible for a 9% increase in the price of U.S. coarse grains, 10% increase in price of oilseeds in the EU-27 region, and 11% for sugarcane in Brazil. Similar impacts were observed on energy-exporting countries in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. The main drawbacks of a CGE model are the large data requirements and the high degree of complexity.

The food crisis of 2007-08 has spawned a large body of literature examining the causes for the spike in food commodity prices. Interest in the food crisis can be motivated by the impact of an increase in food commodity prices on food-insecure and poor households, which is substantial [67]. De Hoyos and Medvedev use domestic food consumer price data to show that the 5.6% increase in average food commodity price between January 2005 and December 2007 implied a 1.7 percentage point increase in the extreme poverty headcount at the global level, with significant regional variation [16] (see also Ivanic and Martin [39]). Nearly all of the increase in extreme poverty is reported to occur in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, Regmi et al. show that when faced with higher food commodity prices, the poor switch to foods that have lower nutritional value and lack important micronutrients [57].

Although the IMF Global Food Index during the 12 months preceding March 2008 increased 43%, the U.S. food Consumer Price Index increased only 4.5%. The global food price index assigns greater weight to raw grains unlike the U.S. food Consumer Price Index where the basket places greater weight on processed foods. The reason for the smaller increase in food commodity prices is that Americans tend to consume highly processed foods. When U.S. consumers purchase foods from supermarkets, convenience stores, or restaurants, a large fraction goes to cover labor associated with preparing, serving, and marketing the food.
|2.1890***|3.2333***|
||(0.0742)|(0.3380)|(0.2094)|(0.2810)|(0.2691)|(0.2528)|(0.2262)|
|Observations|55,334|55,334|55,334|55,334|55,334|55,334|55,334|
|R-squared|0.369|0.163|0.104|0.143|0.246|0.140|0.092|

Note: This table reports district fixed-effect RDD-DD regressions of income and poverty of households using household-level observations. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Standard errors are clustered by district and village-year levels. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

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unable to find other jobs, they are forced into work like taxi drivers. The exit argument refers to the accumulation of financial and social capital: plausibly, small business owners have spent a long portion of their working lives in order to save up enough money and build up a client base for starting up their own business ventures.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Share of Youth in Formal and Informal Employment<br>In European countries, by region<br>2004-2009<br>NL<br>AT<br>RU<br>IL<br>East North South West<br>Employee with a contract Employee without a contract<br>Informal self-employed<br>Youth: Persons aged 15-24<br>Source: Calculation with ESS data<br>60<br>40<br>20<br>0<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Figure 5 Share of youth in formal and informal employment**

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household is assigned its survey-specific population weight. Countries and years included are Niger (2018) and Nigeria (2011, 2013, 2016). Dependent variable is the log of per capita (or adult equivalent) consumption. Other variables included and not shown are education of household head, gender of household head, whether the household location is remote, whether the household was surveyed during the lean season, survey year, country, country x survey year, and administrative fixed effects. Robust t-statistics are shown in parenthesis. Significance level: * = 10 percent, ** = 5 percent, *** = 1 percent.

# 4.2. Exploring different areas over which to aggregate the hazard data

Initial analysis suggested that a 20 km level of spatial aggregation of hazards was appropriate. This radius is able to reflect the local shock to a household’s crop yields and may be large enough to capture some localized impacts on prices and wages in the local market area. We tested this level of aggregation again at the end of the analysis for all countries and found that the level of spatial aggregation made very little difference. In some specifications taking a 24
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12 elected prime ministers get six or seven. The chief executives of Communist nations (the chairman of the Communist Party) are assigned a three, because they are elected by the Party Congress, an electing body which they do not appoint. Executives elected by small, appointed juntas or by appointed electoral colleges receive a two. Countries that allow referenda on unelected executives are scored as three. |

Three other variables supplement these indices. First, elections may be competitive, but the military may nevertheless wield significant power behind the scenes. To get at this, we have two variables indicating whether the chief executive and the minister of defense, respectively, are military officers. Second, our sources often mention voting irregularities or candidate intimidation that are serious enough to affect electoral outcomes, though coverage is far from complete. We record such references irrespective of whether claims that fraudulent elections have occurred are based only on the allegations of the opposition or are supported by independent international observers. Non-constitutional irregularities are also recorded as present when important parties boycott elections or the election results.

One application of these variables is to the debate over whether presidential or parliamentary systems are more likely to lead to democratic consolidation. Stepan and Skach (1993), for example, argue that parliamentary systems are more likely to be associated with long-running democracy than are presidential systems. They offer as evidence the fact that of 53 non-OECD countries, 22 were democratic for at least 10 consecutive years, and of these, 17 were parliamentary. Variables from the DPI suggest a different picture, however. Table 1 indicates a breakdown parallel to theirs using a different indicator of democracy (countries that score at least six on the Legislative Index of Electoral Competitiveness), and the SYSTEM variable, and applying these two variables to a large group of non-OECD countries from 1975
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per worker. In contrast, export expansion in the South benefited labor force participation and employment rates (and to a lesser extent also migration), while increasing imports per worker hurt them. In a second stage, we assess whether a municipality’s trade expansion affects labor market outcomes differently across sectors. Our findings suggest that export expansion in Mexico benefited total labor incomes in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Since the trade data in the dataset mainly consist of goods, this finding could point to an indirect linkage effect, i.e., goods exports may rely on domestic services inputs, thereby benefitting total labor incomes in service sectors. Expanding exports per worker also reduced the informality rate in the manufacturing sector.

Fifth, this study not only examines the impact of exports but also of imports, especially of different types of imports and GVC spillovers more broadly. The absence of effects of imports through the employment and income channels could point to a more nuanced role of imports. The latter include not only final imports that can compete with domestic production, but also imported inputs used for domestic or export production. To explore this question further, we distinguish between intermediate and final imports drawing on the Economic Census data. The direction of coefficients suggests a more favorable role of intermediate relative to final imports through the employment channel, driven by manufacturing imports. In contrast, we find a positive and significant role of both intermediate and final services imports through the employment channel.

In addition, the analysis uses GVC participation measures drawing on Economic Census data at the state level and finds evidence for positive GVC spillovers on labor markets at the municipality level through the employment channel. This complements evidence at the firm-level suggesting that GVC-participating firms employ more workers relative to exporter-only, importer-only and purely domestic firms (World Bank 2020). We also find a positive association with total labor incomes, but a negative one with average labor incomes, which again may be linked to growing labor supply through the migration channel.

Finally, this study explores the
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Sharma, R., Singh, K. (2021). Climate
affect reporting of these outcomes — including whether women entrepreneurs themselves underreport their decisionmaking roles in the business, as was found in an entrepreneurship training program in rural Pakistan (Giné and Mansuri, 2014). Using the 2016-17 Malawi survey, for example, Figure 7 compares men’s and women’s responses on whether they ran a business in the _household labor mo_ dule, with responses in the _non-farm_ 15
**Figure 8**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Monetary Poverty in LAC: Total, Permanent Income, and Redistribution<br>50.0<br>45.0<br>40.0<br>35.0<br>30.0<br>25.0<br>20.0<br>Poverty Poverty (Permanent Income) Poverty (Permanent Income and Redistribution)<br>Headcount Ratio<br>1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017<br><!-- End of picture text --> Notes: Poverty line of 5.50 dollars per person a day (2011 PPP). LAC aggregate based on 15 countries in the region, weighted by population, for which microdata are available at the national level: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. See Appendix B for details. Sources: Authors’ estimations based on SEDLAC (CEDLAS and World Bank) and WEO (October 2018).

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