rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
to be more accurate. Figure 8b shows that more than 40% believe there is no wage growth and two thirds of youths believe that informal wages grow by less than 10%. While we do not have administrative data for informal wages, ENOE survey data suggests that the actual increase is between zero and 10%.<sup>31</sup>

> 30A related question is whether treatment effects vary across people’s discount rates. Results (not reported) show that the interaction of the treatment indicator and people’s discount factor is positive, but modest in magnitude and not statistically significant. There are at least two factors that make this test inconclusive: first, we only elicit discount rates at the endline (although discount rates are not significantly correlated with the treatment assignment). Second, we only collect discount rates for a subset of participants, which limits the statistical power of subgroup analyses.

> 31The hourly wage for informal work remains flat over the first half year while the monthly income increases by 10% suggesting that workers increase the number of hours over time. In our endline survey, respondents working informally are also less than half as likely to report that they received a wage increase compared to those working in the formal sector.

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_Note:_ Subsidy beneficiaries are households. All figures are calculated using sample weights. Total expenditure is total household expenditure in all categories. The distribution of expenditure refers to the countrywide distribution of expenditure per capita, i.e., households are ranked according to their expenditure per capita.

Presented in figure 4, the results for Panama, Jamaica, and El Salvador have a similar pattern, demonstrating subsidies’ regressivity. However, the degree of regressivity in Latin American countries is lower than in African countries. As shown in the next subsection, this is partly because both a greater number of poor households reside in service areas, and, conditional on this potential access, a greater percentage of poor households are connected to the network. The figures suggest that subsidy schemes in all three Latin American countries reduce inequality.

**Figure 4. Distributional incidence of subsidies (by decile) in three Latin American countries**

_Source:_ Original calculations using data from household surveys, IBNET, and national utilities and programs. See the data and methodology section, and the appendix, for more detail. _Note:_ All figures are calculated using sample weights. Total expenditure is total household expenditure in all categories. The distribution of expenditure (Jamaica) or income (El Salvador and Panama) refers to the countrywide distribution of expenditure/income per capita, i.e., households are ranked according to their expenditure/income per capita.

Figure 5 shows the distribution of beneficiaries (households that receive the subsidy) across expenditure or income deciles for the three countries. As with the African countries, it complements the picture painted by the distributional incidence of the amount of subsidies. Richer deciles feature the largest share of total subsidy beneficiaries (blue bars) and the largest share of all households within each decile that are beneficiaries (red bars), although in Panama the pattern is less pronounced.

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Database of Shared Prosperity_ . This database is designed with the objective of assessing growth as measured 10 Following an approach similar to that taken by Lakner et al. (2019), we use the ungroup command included in the DASP Stata Package (Abdelkrim and Duclos, 2007) to generate a national distribution of 10,000 points for each reference year, based on Lorenz curves from PovcalNet. The resulting estimates of poverty and inequality are within 1 percentage point of direct PovcalNet estimates based on microdata in more than 95 percent of the cases.

11 Criteria and data on survey estimate comparability are described in Atamanov et al. (2019). The comparability metadata is available in the World Bank’s GitHub Repository for PovcalNet: <u>https://raw.githubusercontent.com/worldbank/povcalnet/master/metadata/povcalnet_metadata.csv</u> 12 Global Database of Shared Prosperity and Median Income/Consumption, circa 2013-2018, as of March 20, 2021: <u>https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/brief/global-database-of-shared-prosperity.</u> A limitation of household surveys is that they are conducted with uneven frequency and with low consistency in methodology and implementation over time. Many countries lack surveys for at least five years or longer (Serajuddin et al., 2015).

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end of ICAs, successive reductions in Europe of direct market support, and structural adjustments in many developing countries have resulted in these policies being used much less since the early 1990s. Many countries continue to maintain stocks for emergencies or food-based safety nets but less so to achieve stabilization. This does not apply to countercyclical trade policies which are widespread. In the countries surveyed by Demeke, Pangrazio, and Maetz (2009), trade policy adjustments, whether tariff reductions or export restrictions, were the most commonly adopted policy measures during the 2007/08 food crisis (in 68 out of 81 countries). Their use is not restricted to crisis situations. Anderson and Nelgen (2012a) analyze a panel of 75 countries that account for 90% of global agriculture and show that these adjustements occur equally at low and high prices, in importing and exporting countries, and in developing and high-income countries.

Unlike storage policies, which occasionally have been procyclical, trade policies are fairly consistently countercyclical. Tariffs increase when the world price is low and decrease when it is high. Exporting countries tend to restrict exports during price spikes and to promote them 29
.<sup>5</sup> An innovation in this paper is to collect illness spell data at home and apply hazard models to estimate the effects of the interventions on care seeking conditional on health status. In section 5.4, we discuss the advantages of this approach for making out-of-sample predictions and for avoiding selection effects that would occur in demand analysis based on health system contacts, as found for example in clinic records of health consultations or health insurance

> 4Das and S ́anchez-P ́aramo (2003) have weekly data on illness and document the variation in demand that comes from differential illness incidence, but do not study demand interventions.

> 5Also related is work by Fischer et al. (2014), who test for learning and reference dependence as they vary prices in door-to-door sales of over-the-counter drugs (but do not focus on over- or underuse).

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pass-through depends on the market power of Chinese firms (Berman et al. (2012)). Since the effects of Chinese competition on Indonesian firms ultimately depend on the extent of exchange rate pass through on prices, our results could be affected by the degree of Chinese firms’ market power in different product markets. A priori, the link between Chinese market share, exposure to Chinese competition, and yuan depreciation is unclear. We use the 2011 Chinese firm level data, the only year for which we have access to Chinese firm-level data, to compute the HHI share at the HS-6 level for Chinese firms who export to Japan. Similar to the competition index defined in 2 we define a measure of HHI that takes into account the market power of Chinese firms, defined below: where _EXig′_<sup>theimportanceofHS-6product</sup><sup>_g′_inthetotalexportsoftheHS-4</sup> _EXig_<sup>measures</sup> product _g_ exported to Japan by the Indonesian firm _i_ ; and _HHIg_<sup>_China′_</sup> is the sum of squares of firm-level market-share for HS-6 product _g_<sup>_′_</sup> sold in the Japanese market by Chinese firms.

We modify our main specification 1 by adding the interaction of the real exchange rate variation with the HHI measure defined above. The results from our main specification do not change: All the NTMs under consideration negatively affect firms’ export response. The positive and significant coefficient of the HHI measure interacted with exchange rate fluctuations in table 10 also provide suggestive evidence for the Berman et al. (2012) hypothesis that depreciations in Chinese exchange rate lead to a lower exchange rate pass-through for Chinese firms with higher market shares, as measured by the HHI, and thus lead to a lower fall in export values of Indonesian firms in markets with higher Chinese HHI. Even though interesting in its own right, since this is not a focus of our paper, we relegate further discussions of this to Appendix A3.
**Figure 2.** Trends in the categories of body mass index in adult persons between 20 to 24 years of age of the lowest income quintile by gender. Mexico 2000, 2006 and 2012.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Females Males<br>100% 100% 0.03<br>0.08 0.1<br>90% 0.14 0.17 90% 0.19<br>0.26<br>80% 80%<br>0.31<br>0.33<br>70% 0.3 70% 0.23<br>0.32<br>60% 60%<br>50% 50%<br>40% 40%<br>0.71<br>30% 0.61 0.56 30% 0.57 0.58<br>0.51<br>20% 20%<br>10% 10%<br>0% 0%<br>2000 2006 2012 2000 2006 2012<br>Normal Sobrepeso Obesidad Normal Sobrepeso Obesidad<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Normal Sobrepeso Obesidad<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Normal Sobrepeso Obesidad<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: Authors’ estimates based on data from the National Health Survey 2000 (ENSA 2000), National Health and Nutrition Survey 2006 (ENSANUT 2006) and the National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012 (ENSANUT, 2012).

# _B. Teenage pregnancy_

Another subject of specific relevance is pregnancy during adolescence. According to the ENSA and ENSANUT, the probability of teenage pregnancy increased from 9.3% to 10.7% between 2000 and 2012. The increase in teenage pregnancy
participating establishments over the period 2004-14,<sup>8</sup> our analysis focuses on GVC participation measures at the state level. We compute two measures that are used in the regressions: the share of GVC establishments in a state’s (i) total number of establishments, and (ii) total establishments’ employment. Correlates with labor market outcomes in that case are to be interpreted as GVC spillovers.

To obtain labor market, informality and migration indicators as well as information on the demographic characteristics of the population at the municipality level, we rely on tabulations from the 2000 and 2010 Census of Population and Housing and the 2015 Population Count.<sup>9</sup> Given that publicly available data from the Mexican Institute of Statistics do not allow for more than two cross-tabulations, we use census microdata samples from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to estimate labor market indicators for more detailed groups (Ruggles et al. 2007). Because the 2005 data do not include detailed information on labor market outcomes, 2000 data are used instead as the initial year for these indicators (with the exception of migration variables). The analysis also uses information on remittances received in Mexico from the United States (CONAPO 2014).

The analysis focuses on four types of labor market outcomes, namely (i) employment-related measures (labor force participation rate and employment rate), (ii) labor incomes (total and average), (iii) measures of migration, and (iv) labor informality. First, the employment channel captures both labor force participation rate and employment rates which are based on the IPUMS variable EMPSTAT taking the values of 0 (not in universe<sup>10</sup> ), 1 (Employed), 2 (Unemployed) and 3 (Inactive). The labor force participation rate is defined as the share of employed and unemployed in the universe (sum of employed, unemployed and inactive), whereas the employment rate is the share of employed in the universe
# **5 Studies of the Effectiveness of Independent Regulatory Agencies and Governance Arrangements on Utility Industry Outcomes**

## **5.1 General Issues**

The literature on estimating the effect of regulatory governance arrangements on outcomes is relatively small to date, particularly for electricity. There has been more for telecoms, particularly in recent years and we will draw on this in what follows. We will also refer to the recent work on infrastructure concession contracts in Latin America that has been done in and around the World Bank where the probability of renegotiation appears to be affected by the presence or absence of a regulatory agency – but how and why is unclear.

The larger literature for telecoms arises because there has been more and earlier DTE privatization and regulation for it than for other infrastructure industries. Not only does this mean that there is a longer observation period - and hence more chance of finding significant effects – but also that comprehensive databases have been assembled. The main one seems to be the ITU-World Bank database on telecommunications policy and regulation, but this can be supplemented by the Stanford-World Bank database (which covers mobile telephony in Latin America) and others.

For electricity, DPS (2002) report a figure of 4 years as the median duration of developing country electricity regulators (as of late 2000). Given the time needed to establish the effective working of regulatory institutions – let alone the time needed to establish their reputation and credibility – it is hardly surprising that, as yet, it has been difficult to make any robust estimates of the impact of regulation on outcomes.

In this context, it is worth noting that regulators established in the late 1990s were trying to develop their role around or after the time of the Asian and other financial crises and the much more difficult circumstances as the 1990s boom disintegrated. This also makes it harder to establish positive effects (eg on investment) than for telecoms.

For electricity, there is also, as yet, no database comparable to the World Bank/ITU database for
(GFLEC, 2016). Institutional reforms that accompany improved acquisition of financial skills and access to credit would be a package of interventions that would empower people, especially women. The gender gap in asset ownership is huge. On average, only 44% of women have an account at a financial institution versus nearly 70% of men. The gap is even larger for women in the bottom 40% of the income distribution. As this reform package is implemented, it is important to address gender-specific impediments in the financial sector, including biases in inheritance and family laws which limit the collateral available to women. We rate this constraint as severe from a gender perspective and give it a score of 4 in column (5) of Table 1. Finally, since most poor women are stuck in small, mixed cropping agriculture, any intervention addressing this constraint will have to consider the distortions preventing productive employment for women in agriculture (either as workers or as farm owners). We therefore rate this constraint as severe from a gender inclusion perspective and give it a rating of 4 in column (5) of Table 1.

The remaining binding constraints to growth in column (2) of Table 1 are unlikely to interact negatively with existing gender related distortions. Therefore, they receive a lower rating of 2 as shown in column (5) of Table 1. Note however that the constraints related to access to basic services (education) and resources (land and water), and regional differences receive a higher rating of 3 in terms of gender inclusion because interventions targeting these areas are likely to reduce gender gaps. The sum of columns (2) and (5) allows us to obtain the new ranking from the gender-enhanced growth diagnostics. The most binding constraints to gender-enhanced growth are those with a rating of 8 in column 6 of Table 1:

- underdeveloped financial markets;

- low female labor force participation;

- low performance in technology absorption and innovation.

Identifying the policies that would effectively address gender gaps within each of these
these central provinces, and migration outside of the province plays an important role in the village economy, justifying the assumption of a complete transmission of the demand for labor to the village level (the case study village is more thoroughly described below).

Similarly, changes in outside-village wages and changes non-agricultural wages are taken from the GTAP simulations. As will be seen below, the rural-urban wage differential is endogenously determined through modeling of household-specific shadow wages. Mapping macro-level changes computed with the GTAP model to the village level results in the shocks summarized in Table 1.

# **2.2 The case study village**

The case-study village has been selected to be representative of rice producing villages in the plains area of Jiangxi Province, one of the poorer provinces in China. Data on production and consumption of 168 households were collected for 2000, using standard household questionnaires with questions on source and destination of commodities added to allow construction of a village SAM. These surveyed households account for about a quarter of the village population, totaling 729 households.

Differences among households are at the center of our village equilibrium model. Four groups of households are distinguished, using ownership of draught power (cattle or tractor) and access to extra-province employment as grouping criteria. The resulting groups represent households with differential capacity for earning a living from agriculture and from (transitory) migration to coastal cities.

The upper part of Table 2 presents the activities of each household type in terms of contribution to value-added. Taking the first column for the unlinked households with no draught power, we observe that crops are the dominant source of farm value added. Oneseason rice contributes 9.4 percent to value added, while the more intensive two-season rice contributes as much as 28.5 percent. Other crops, such as vegetables, contribute another 21.2 12
in non-agriculture sectors.

Finally, power outages also have negative impacts on development outcomes for households, which partially offset the benefits of electrification. Using household survey data from rural households for 2005 and 2010 in Bangladesh, Samad and Zhang (2017) find that a one hour increase in power outages per day is associated with a 0.3 percent reduction in annual income. Indeed, the income differential between electrified and non-electrified households disappears if the power outages last longer than 21 hours a day. The study also finds that the benefits of electrification increase over time, albeit at a decreasing rate, such that each additional year of being connected to the grid is associated with a 1 percent increase in annual income.

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secondary rights (or group rights management) easier as it allows electronic gathering of consent to and costless transfer of resources directly to right holders without intermediaries. Harnessing these opportunities requires adjustments in the regulatory framework that will have to be tailored to local contexts.

Opportunities for urban job creation, activation of land and financial markets, and generation of public revenue from taxing land appreciation are vast. Realizing them requires (i) improving coverage, quality, and interoperability of urban property registries as well as land service delivery by digitizing, simplifying, and re-engineering workflows; (ii) reducing cost of registration and passing on associated savings to customers; (iii) replacing often prohibitive transaction taxes (stamp duties) with a recurrent land tax; and (iv) increasing transparency and trust by making data on land valuation for tax purposes and transaction prices publicly available and reducing bureaucracy through interoperability with other registries such as those for mortgages or court cases.

To harness human capital externalities from higher density in urban areas, land institutions can help by ensuring that (i) land titles and affordable registration fees allow (women) entrepreneurs to use land as collateral to create jobs and developers to access long-term finance to build durable high structures to provide floor space; (ii) public land is managed transparently to provide infrastructure and public services and rights to such land are allocated through transparent auctions rather than through backroom deals by politically connected organizers; (iii) building standards and planning rules contribute to public safety and reduction of externalities and are enforced impartially.

To replace agricultural area expansion with intensification and climate-smart adaptation as the main source of increased output, better functioning of rural factor markets to foster structural transformation is essential. The contribution of land to structural transformation can be enhanced by (i) securing women’s rights to land in case of inheritance or divorce via changes in (family) law and regulations to allow documentation at low cost; (ii) improving insurance, land, and labor markets by removing regulatory barriers to certain types of land transfers