rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
(a) The ratio of private to social rates of return. _Source:_ Staff calculations from MOL Survey 1993 Table 6 reports the basic Mincerian earnings functions, showing that the overall marginal private rate of return to one year of extra schooling, irrespective of education level, is around 12.5 percent. The marginal returns to education for three levels of education are displayed in the last column. These rates are consistent with the earlier 4See for example, Lockheed, Jamison and Lau, 1980,"Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency: A Survey in Education and Income" _World Bank Staff Working_ Paper No 402. Authors found that on average, farmers with four years or more of primary education were at least 7 percent more productive than those with no primary schooling.

**5** Labor productivity improved slowly until 1987. See I.J. Singh,"Industrial productivity in Socialist Economies", 1991.
the minimum wage (11.99 percent), and forcefully suggests that the price index used to index wage contracts this year is the change in the minimum wage. Note also that there are no distortions associated with the rate of inflation. Quite surprisingly, we find very little zero wage changes, but the -1 bin shows a small spike. This concentration of tiny wage cuts is suggestive of measurement error.

We move next to the low-inflation years. Panel A of figure 3 shows the wage change distribution in Uruguay in 2000-2001, when inflation is at its low for the period (4.35 percent). The most striking feature with respect to the high-inflation year is the growth in the spike at zero, which now accounts for almost 25 percent of the wage change observations. As before, there is some concentration of observations around the rate of inflation, but to a much lesser extent than in 1997-1998. Panel B of figure 3 shows the 1999-2000 histogram in Brazil. As before, the change in the minimum wage is associated with a large spike, amounting to 14 percent of the wage changes. The novelty is that there appears to be a second distortion in the positive wage change range, this time associated with the rate of inflation. This could indicate that as inflation comes down, some agents start indexing their wages to expected inflation.

In sum, visual inspection of the wage change histograms suggests an important presence of downward rigidities and indexation in both countries in all years. However, obtaining precise measures of downward wage rigidities is complicated because of the presence of measurement error in the data and the existence of different focal points for wage indexation. The next section presents a model that deals with these two features and provides us with clean measures of DNWR and the extent of wage indexation.

# 3 Methodology

There are different approaches in the literature to estimating rigidities from individual worker data.<sup>4</sup> Focusing on job stayers between two consecutive years, a number of studies draw inferences
||||
|Trinidad<br>& Tobago|43,751|43,751|12,134|12,134|7,371|7,402|27|
|Caribbean|428,109|428,109|96,784|96,784|250,410|213,481|131,797|

Source: European Commission, International Sugar Organization, and USDA.

Note: EU quotas are given in metric tons of white sugar equivalent and U.S. quotas are in metric tons of raw sugar equivalent. The standard conversion of raw cane sugar to refined white sugar is 1.087 units of raw cane sugar are required to produce 1.0 unit of white sugar. This assumes a standard sugar content of cane of 96 percent (96° polarization).

Deliveries to U.S. are given in the USDA’s Sugar and Sweetener Situation and Outlook Yearbook, while deliveries to the EU and the rest of the world are author’s estimates. * Authors’ estimate based on International Sugar Organization data.

# **_Caribbean Dependence on Preferences_**

The sugar exporters of the Caribbean region are very dependent on the EU and U.S. sugar programs, with 85 percent of export quantities and 94 percent of export revenues coming from these programs in 2000/01 (Table 5). Without these preferences, and assuming world prices were unchanged, export revenues would have declined by 60 percent. The Dominican Republic is totally dependent on the U.S. preferences while most countries have both EU and U.S. quotas (Figure 4). Guyana has the largest EU quota and sent approximately 80 percent of its exports to the EU during 1998-2002.

Countries heavily dependent on the EU market also have a large currency risk because the guaranteed price is paid in Euros and currencies of the Caribbean region are closely aligned or pegged to the U.S. dollar. Thus, the sharp fall in the Euro following its introduction in
_Figure 19: Coping strategies applied by vulnerable and non‐vulnerable population, % of the respondents_ <!-- Start of picture text --> 40%<br>35%<br>30%<br>25%<br>20%<br>15%<br>10%<br>5%<br>0%<br>vulnerable non vulnerable non vulnerable non vulnerable non<br>vulnerable vulnerable vulnerable vulnerable<br>2014 2015 2016 2017<br>income increase expenditure reduction nothing help from relatives help from the state other<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note. Only those respondents who reported deterioration of their well‐being where interviewed about coping strategies.

Source: Authors’ estimates based on HSS data.

There are some differences in the choice of the coping strategies by type of residence or household composition (see Annex, Table A8). For instance, active search for additional income was typical for residents of large cities in 2015 that were affected more than other territories at the onset of the crisis. Another consequence of the negative effects of the crisis in large cities early on was the rapid increase in the share of urban population in large cities cutting expenditures (in small cities this is more pronounced in 2016). In contrast with the urban population, rural households report less well‐being deterioration during the crisis and therefore cut expenditures less often.

Across household types, presence of children in the household increases the likelihood of searching for additional income, especially among households with 3 or more children, while at the same time reducing the frequency of relying on cutting expenditures. This could be due to the fact that poverty and vulnerability rates among households with three and more children leave them with only limited possibilities for expenditure reduction and pushes adults towards a more active search for additional employment income. Single parent households are another vulnerable group that tend to rely more on search for additional earnings, and on help from relatives
B. A. Olken, and A. Sautman (2020). In praise of moderation: Suggestions for the scope and use of pre-analysis plans for RCTs in economics. Working Paper 26993, National Bureau of Economic Research.

- Ebhuoma, E. and D. Simatele (2017). Defying the odds: Climate variability, asset adaptation and food security nexus in the Delta State of Nigeria. _International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 21_ , 231–242.

- Ellis, F. (1998). Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification. _Journal of Development Studies 35_ (1), 1–38.

- Favara, M., R. Freund, C. Porter, A. Sanchez, and D. Scott (2022). Young lives, interrupted: Shortterm effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescents in low- and middle-income countries. _Journal of Development Studies 58_ (6), 1063–1080.

- Furbush, A., A. Josephson, T. Kilic, and J. Michler (2021). The evolving socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 in four African countries. In _Shaping Africa’s Post-Covid Recovery_ , pp. 97–116. CEPR Press, 2021.

- Furbush, A. M., A. Josephson, and J. D. Michler (2021). Understanding households’ resilience to and recovery from COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa. OSF Registries. August 26. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/NU593.

- Gelman, A. (2019). Don’t calculate post-hoc power using observed estimate of effect size. _Annals of Surgery 269_ (1), e9–e10.

20
excess of<br>5% of mean per capita income<br>Out-of-pocket spending in excess of<br>10% of household’s own per capita<br>income|
|Health insurance|A dummy indicating whether they person has any cover. Also a<br>series of dummies, capturing whether they had any of the<br>following types cover, namely public, worker, dependent, work<br>unit, cooperative, maternal and child health prepayment scheme,<br>immunization prepayment scheme, ‘other’, unknown.|A dummy indicating whether the person has any<br>cover.|A dummy indicating whether the<br>person had any cover. Also dummies,<br>capturing whether they were a member<br>of a CMS or GIS/LIS schemes (people<br>saying they had one of the following:<br>government employee insurance; labor<br>insurance;<br>half<br>labor<br>insurance;<br>medical<br>insurance;<br>coordinated<br>arrangement; others).|
|Self-assessed<br>health|4-point scale|5-point scale|n/a|
|Chronic health|Not used|Not used|A dummy indicating whether the<br>individual has a diagnosed chronic<br>disease.|
|Per capita<br>income|Total household income from all sources divided by number of<br>household members (1989 prices). The bottom half of 1% of<br>observations in each wave have been trimmed.|Income from agriculture, livestock, wages and self-<br>employment. Wage income includes bonuses,<br>subsidies, and the value of in-kind payments.|Household<br>was<br>asked<br>its<br>total<br>household income in the previous year.<br>This was divided by the number of
exclusion and inclusion errors. In addition, public budget data is the only source allowing for sectoral breakdown. This practically means that the only recent source available, namely IMF data on Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) would be of little use here, not even considering the fact that it misses most of the private investment that dominates for example the digital sector.

Alternatively, one could generate bottom-up estimates of the value of sectoral infrastructure capital stocks by taking physical data on infrastructure stocks at the country level and applying unit replacement cost values to convert these into replacement value capital stocks in monetary units, as was done in Canning and Bennathan (2000) for the 1980s and 22
their superior predictive capacity compared to asset-only models. As an additional test, a model was calculated excluding consumption dummies with data from the IE-LFS 2021 survey to assess the predictive performance of the models. The urban and rural models were further tested for out-of-sample performance using the spring quarter of IE-LFS 2021-22 survey.<sup>12</sup> While more demanding, this test further confirms the relative precision of the estimates, showing only a 3.3 and 4 percent difference compared to the poverty levels directly measured in Spring 2021 (last three columns Table 4). This improved performance holds when benchmarking the model against one that excludes consumption dummies (Annex C).

> 11 A typical example is mobile phone ownership, which has increased rapidly as a consequence of the prices of cell phones and service fees going down, and not, necessarily, cellphone users becoming richer.

> 12 Data collection of the IE-LFS 2021-21 started in March 2021 and continued until the end of June, before being suspended due to the collapsing security situation in the country.

13
, B., A. Jaffe, and M. Trajtenberg. 2001. “The NBER Patent Citation Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools.” NBER Working Paper 8498. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Harrigan, J. 1997. “Technology, Factor Supplies, and International Specialization: Estimating the Neoclassical Model.” _American Economic Review_ 87 (4): 475–94.

Head, K., and J. Reis. 1998. “Immigration and Trade Creation: Econometric Evidence from Canada.” _Canadian Journal of Economics_ 31 (1): 47–62.

Helpman, E., and P. Krugman. 1985. _Market Structure and Foreign Trade._ Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

Hummels, D., and P. Klenow. 2005. “The Variety and Quality of a Nation’s Exports.” _American Economic Review_ 95 (3): 704–23.

Hunt, J., and M. Gauthier-Loiselle. 2010. “How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation?” _American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics_ 2 (2): 31–56.

Hunter, L. 1991. “The Contribution of Non-Homothetic Preferences to Trade.” _Journal of International Economics_ 30 (3): 345–58.

Hunter, L., and J. Markusen. 1988. “Per Capita Income as a Determinant of Trade.” in R. Feenstra, ed., _Empirical Methods for International Trade._ Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

Irwin, D., and P. Klenow. 1994. “Learning by Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry.” _Journal of Political Economy_ 102: 1200–27.

Keller, W. 2002. “Geographic Localization of International Technology Diffusion.” _American Economic Review_ 92 (1): 120–42.

Kerr, W. 2008. “Ethnic Scientific Communities and International Technology Diffusion.” _Review of Economics and Statistics_ 90 (3): 518–37.

- —
Africa|8|34|1,942|9|39|2,365|

_Source:_ World Bank, Doing Business 2011. _Note:_ C= coastal; L= landlocked. Documents to export (import): The total number of documents required per shipment to export (import) goods. Documents required for clearance by government ministries, customs authorities, port and container terminal authorities, health and technical control agencies, and banks are taken into account Time to export (import): The time necessary to comply with all procedures required to export (import) goods. If a procedure can be accelerated for an additional cost, the fastest legal procedure is chosen. Cost to export (import): The cost associated with all procedures required to export (import) goods. Includes the costs for documents, administrative fees for customs clearance and technical control, customs broker fees, terminal-handling charges, and inland transport.

**Figure 6. Shares of different factors affecting the time and cost of importing through gateways in West Africa**

a. Cost b. Time <!-- Start of picture text --> 100 100<br>90 90<br>80 80<br>70 70<br>60 60<br>50 50<br>40 40<br>30 30<br>20 20<br>10 10<br>0 0<br>Border Administrative Transport Port Border Administrative Transport Port<br>Source: AICD ports database; Teravaninthorn and Raballand 2009.<br>Note : Ports data are based on indicators from 2006–07.<br>Share (%) Share (%)<br><!-- End of picture text --> Similarly, the lengthy _travel times_ to import and export from Niger are associated with ports’ inefficient operations. In the Cotonou-Niamey corridor, delays in the Port of Cotonou are responsible for more than 70 percent of the time required to import into Niamey, as
at a place where nobody passes, or merely to embellish the view from the windows of a neighbouring palace: things which sometimes happen, in countries where works of this kind are carried on by any other revenue than that which they themselves are capable of affording.”_

# _Adam Smith (1776)_

In many countries infrastructure services are woefully deficient. Complaints, for example, about lack of water or electricity service, low quality service or infrequent service are commonplace. At the same time it is not unheard of that a new road serves the estate of powerful people or that water or power systems reach them first. Roads to nowhere and prestige projects recur all too often. The demand and supply of infrastructure services may thus both be deficient. Dealing with the issue brings out the central role of prices – as determinants of demand and as incentives to supply.

Demand or “need” is often determined with reference to some “norm”. Policymakers may come to believe that development requires a certain percentage of GDP to be invested in infrastructure. Such a norm may be derived from cross-country studies on past levels of investment. Or one may set stretch 4
11 Even though the data were taken from the monthly bulletins they were aggregated to quarterly changes to eliminate excessive volatility due to high frequency'" and focus on the shifts in relative prices that are stable over longer periods. For each quarter two distributions have been created: _distribution of unweighted inflation rates_ (obtained from quarterly inflation rates for individual groups of goods and services) and _distribution of weighted inflation rates_ (obtained from quarterly inflation rates for individual groups of goods and services multiplied by their weight in the basket). Using those distributions various measures of variance and skewness have been calculated:

- conventional variance and skewness of the unweighted distribution

- conventional variance and skewness of the weighted distribution

- Theil variance and skewness.

The above measures render different aspects of relative price changes. The mean of the weighted distribution is the aggregated inflation rate whereas the mean of the weighted distribution is the average inflation rate of commodities comprising the CPI basket. The unweighted variance assumes the value of zero when all individual inflation rates are equal and increases with higher dispersion of individual rates regardless of their share in the index. On the other hand, the variance of the weighted distribution measures the contribution of each group of commodities to overall variability on the basis of their weight in the basket and does not take on the zero value even if all rates are equal. Both measures seem to have considerable deficiencies with respect to describing the shape of the distribution in that they focus on one aspect of the variability neglecting the other. By contrast, the measure developed by Theil"<sup>6</sup> takes account of several properties of the distribution thereby rendering a more comprehensive picture. Theil

> '<sup>5</sup> The effect that the frequency of the inflation data has on the volatility of relative prices is discussed in Blejer [1983]

> **16** Theil [1967]
education programs. The TA was initially targeted at literacy, and in 2011 was expanded to include support for grades 3 to 5. The state government provided pedagogical and management support to the municipal secretariats of education, including elements like scripted materials for teachers, teacher training focused on classroom practice, effective use of learning assessments, and knowledge exchanges between schools. Another important milestone of the education reforms in Ceará was the reformulation of the RBF rule in 2013 to penalize municipalities with higher percentages of students below minimum thresholds of performance in mathematics and language (Portuguese).

Our empirical strategy explores this timeline and the location of schools across _Ceará_ ’s border in other states to identify RBF effects on learning at the end of primary (5<sup>_th_</sup> grade) and lower secondary (9<sup>_th_</sup> grade) education. Using data from students, teachers, and principals from the _Sistema de Avaliação do Ensino Básico_ (SAEB), we compare the average differences in education outcomes on both sides of the border before and during each implementation stage.<sup>1</sup> In total, this approach generates four parameters. To benchmark our findings and control for pre-existing disparities, we compute the baseline difference in pre-RBF periods (2005 and 2007). The second parameter refers to periods when the RBF was introduced without any complementary program in 2009. The third parameter measures the average difference in periods when the _RBF_ was combined with _TA_ (in 2011 for 5<sup>_th_</sup> grade, and in 2015 for 9<sup>_th_</sup> grade). The last difference considers the reformulation of the RBF rule in 2013 until 2017. We argue that, by comparing these parameters and controlling for student and municipal characteristics, time trends, and border fixed effects, it is possible to estimate whether financial incentives for mayors improved learning and the impacts of providing TA and reformulating the RBF rule.

> 1 It is crucial to highlight two
Alesina, A., & Zhuravskaya, E. (2011). Segregation and the Quality of Government in a Cross Section of Countries.</mark> _<mark>American Economic Review</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>101</mark>_ <mark>(5), 1872-1911.</mark>

- <mark>Algan, Y., Hémet, C., & Laitin, D. D. (2016). The social effects of ethnic diversity at the local level: A natural experiment with exogenous residential allocation.</mark> _<mark>Journal of Political Economy</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>124</mark>_ <mark>(3), 696-733.</mark>

- <mark>Amin, M., and Soh, Y.C. (2021) Does greater regulatory burden lead to more corruption? Evidence using firm-level survey data for developing countries.</mark> _<mark>The World Bank Economic Review</mark>_ , <mark>35(3), 812–828.</mark>

- <mark>Aterido, R., Hallward-Driemeier, M., & Pagés, C. (2011). Big constraints to small firms’ growth? Business environment and employment growth across firms.</mark> _<mark>Economic Development and Cultural Change</mark>_ <mark>,</mark> _<mark>59</mark>_ <mark>(3), 609-647.</mark>

- <mark>Atkinson, C., Lupton, B., Kynighou, A., & Antcliff, V. (2022). Small firms, owner managers and (strategic?) human resource management.</mark> _<mark>Human Resource Management Journal</mark>
c with human capital:

# 3.2 Other variables

We adopt two measures capturing the level of ...nancial development. First, we use the ratio of the overall bank credit extended to the private sector over country’s GDP (BCct0) as a proxy for the strength of the banking sector. This is our main ...nancial variable, following our theoretical motivation about the disciplining role of external debtholders. Second, we take the ratio of stock market capitalization over the GDP (StMct0) to examine whether stockholders exert a similar disciplining in‡uence on exports of the domestic producers. The data for both our measures are from the widely used database by Beck et al. (2000), which contains various indicators of ...nancial development across countries and over time. The annual data for the GDP per capita (GDPct0) are taken from the World Development Indicator report 2006 and are reported in constant 2000 US dollars. The strength of banking sector (BCct0) and the GDP per capita (GDPct0) are correlated at 61%.

Bank credit may also facilitate export survival by reducing the costs of external ...nance to exporters. We control for this alternative channel by deploying an interaction term between countries’overall bank credit and industries’dependence on external ...nance (BCct0 � ExFj). Industry-level measure of external ...nance dependence for ISIC 4-digit sectors comes from Raddatz (2006) and is based on ...nancial data about US ...rms from Compustat. In particular, dependence on external ...nance (ExFj) is de...ned as capital expenditures minus cash ‡ow from operations, divided by capital expenditures, for the median ...rm in each industry.

Similarly, we interact exporting countries’endowments of physical and human capital with corresponding factor intensities at industry level (�ct0 � CapIntj, hct0 � HumIntj). The factor intensities for ISIC 4-digit sectors come from Romalis (2004).