rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
The result is 250 independent stochastic realizations of what a 40-year precipitation time series might be. The pseudo-precipitation values generated based on ERA5 (prior to the adjustment for CHIRPS) were subsequently used to generate SWI and NDVI catalogs using empirical correlations known to exist between precipitation and these two variables to develop statistical relationships. Each stochastic realization of NDVI and SWI was thus obtained from (and consistent with) the stochastic realizations of precipitation.

# **Validation**

Stochastic catalogs are designed to provide a view of hazard that goes beyond the data available in the historical record. In developing such catalogs, care must be exercised to avoid compromising the ability to realistically represent the physical processes governing the natural phenomena being modeled.

Several diagnostic figures were generated using the rainfall catalog to show that the catalog created statistically robust stochastic realizations. Specifically, these realizations (i) preserved the intrinsic properties in terms of spatial and temporal correlations; (ii) were consistent with the empirical distributions of precipitation at each individual location; and (iii) produced a realistic view of hazard, consistent with historical observations while allowing for the creation of new extremes.

Validation diagnostics included several comparisons:

- The synthetic rainfall time series was compared with historical data (CHIRPS satellite rainfall data and gauge rainfall data), across different spatial aggregations; this included comparing the distribution of monthly rainfall averages for each month in the stochastic catalog (figure C.1) with the CHIRPS data set. The result shows that the stochastic catalog captures well both historical trends and an extension of the tails of the monthly distributions, suggesting the presence of previously unseen extremes and consistent with physical processes at play.

- The cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for historical and simulated hazards were compared to assess the relationship between frequency of an event’s occurrence and its severity.

- The spatial distributions of rainfall averaged over various time scales were compared.

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# **Trade data by regional partner and sector**

To obtain the shares of imports and exports from the different regions of our model, we used trade data published by the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia<sup>13</sup> . The data is for the year 2007 and shows exports and imports by country and commodity.

The regions of our model are Armenia, the European Union, the CIS, and the Rest of the World. For the European Union, we took the 27 member countries as of 2007. For the CIS, we include Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Rest of the World is the residual.

The data is reported according to the Harmonized System (HS) classification at the two digit level. We mapped the HS-commodities into the sectors of our model. The exact mapping and results for both exports and imports are reported in Appendix A.

# **Tariff data—Collected rates at the tariff line level**

We received data on collected import duties (tariffs) and import values at the four digit tariff line level (again using the Harmonized System classification) from the Armenian Customs Authority. The collected tariff rates for the sectors in our model are obtained by first aggregating the four digit tariff line level tariff collections and import values to the sectors of our model. The ratio of tariff collections to import values for each sector of our model is then calculated to give estimates of the collected tariff rates, which in turn are incorporated into our dataset. The tariff rates are shown in table 4 of appendix A. Applying these tariff rates across all sectors implies that tariff revenue in the revised database is about 1% of GDP, which is consistent with collected revenues in Armenia.<sup>14</sup> Given that Armenia participates in preferential trade areas with the other CIS member states, it was necessary to make further adjustments. That is,
based on 33 SSA countries DSAs done by IMF and World Bank staff.

1/ Includes both public and private sector external debt.

2/ Derived as [r - g - ρ(1+g)]/(1+g+ρ+gρ) times previous period debt ratio, with r = nominal interest rate; g = real GDP growth rate, and ρ = growth rate of GDP deflator in U.S. dollar terms.

3/ Includes exceptional financing (i.e., changes in arrears and debt relief); changes in gross foreign assets; and valuation adjustments. For projections also includes contribution from price and exchange rate changes.

29
productive. Better workforce skills are crucial for firms to employ more efficient technologies, produce more sophisticated and higher quality products and services (e.g., Verhoogen 2008) and make the implementation of managerial and organizational practices more effective (Bloom & Van Reenen 2010).

Productivity returns to the education of managers are even higher. Many studies show a clear link between the education of a manager and firm performance in both industrialized countries (see Van der Sluis et al. 2008 for a review) and in low income countries (see e.g., Van der Sluis et al. 2005). Gennaioli et al. (2013) estimate that the return to productivity is close to 30 percent for an extra year of education of a manager. One source of these productivity gains is that more highly educated managers are also more likely to adopt better management practices (Bloom & Van Reenen 2010), suggesting that they are either more aware of what good management practices are or are more effective in adopting them. Informality is also strongly associated with education: according to the 2018 Enterprise Survey, less than five percent of owners of informal firms in Mozambique have completed tertiary education, against 45 percent of owners of formal firms, in line with results from other countries (La Porta & Shleifer 2014).

# _Interventions to improve capabilities_

While the importance of business practices on firm performance is well established (McKenzie and Woodruff, 2017; Bloom & Van Reenen, 2007), there is not enough evidence on how to change business practices effectively. A wide range of interventions aiming to improve firm capabilities of firms through business skills trainings have had at best mixed results (McKenzie & Woodruff 2013; McKenzie et al. 2020; McKenzie 2020). Grover, Medvedev & Olafsen (2018) review 15 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of business trainings (none in Mozambique), and find that 8 of them had significant and positive impacts on sales, while the remaining 7 had insignificant impacts. Most of these studies targeted
<u>Power et al. 2022, Monnin 2022). A recent report by the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for</u> Greening the Financial System (NGFS), a group of central banks and supervisors committed to developing best practices to manage climate-related risks and mobilizing capital for green and low-carbon investments, offers a set of recommendations for financial regulators and supervisors with regard to nature loss (NGFS-INSPIRE, 2022). Those recommendations include (i) recognizing nature loss as a potential source of economic and financial risk; (ii) building skill and capacity to assess and address those risks; (iii) exploring options for supervisory actions on managing biodiversity-related risks and minimizing negative impacts on ecosystems; and (iv) helping build the necessary financial architecture for mobilizing investment for a biodiversity-positive economy. To further advance the currently nascent knowledge base for potential supervisory action, the NGFS launched a new task force on nature-related risks (NGFS 2022).

Yet, the assessment of nature-related financial risk exposure is still nascent and only a handful of central banks have done so. This paper expands the scope of such analyses by providing high-level assessments of nature-related financial risk exposure for 20 emerging market economies, relying on publicly available information and data. The approach in this paper follows pioneering efforts by De Nederlandsche Bank (van Toor et al., 2020), and subsequently by the World Bank (Calice et al.,2021), Banque de France and AFD (Svartzman et al., 2021), and Bank Negara Malaysia (World Bank and BNM, 2022). This report's analysis can offer initial insights into banks’ exposure to possible nature-related physical risk for emerging market economies. However, given its high-level nature and prevailing data gaps, estimates in this paper should be treated as a starting point for more in-depth analysis that would rely on unpublished data from local authorities. Furthermore, shifting from exposure analysis to a comprehensive assessment of naturerelated risks requires the development of relevant scenarios and a better understanding of sectoral and
thunderstorms – known in Bangladesh as Nor’wester or Kalbaisakhi. We combine two sources of data to capture these distinct events: (i) ERA5 climate data, and (ii) lightning data based on NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS).

ERA5 climate data for Bangladesh During the monsoon season, which starts in June and peaks in August, the country experiences high temperatures and precipitation, as well as increased average wind speeds (Figure 2.1). In order to measure these phenomena, climate data is retrieved from the 5<sup>th</sup> global reanalysis (ERA5) conducted by the ECMWF<sup>12</sup> . We retrieve precipitation, temperature and wind speed data for the centroids of all seven divisions of Bangladesh from the ERA5 database. Daily climatic data correspond to the maximum daily value recorded at these locations.

The data, presented in Figure 2.1, show that average temperatures start to rise at the beginning of April and reach a maximum of about 30°C in May. The climate data captures high average wind speeds and high precipitation during the period July to September, which coincide with the monsoon season. Tropical cyclones are also captured in the data, though their intensity is underrepresented (Hodges _et al._ , 2017).

> 12 See analysis conducted in the US for further details on the model and structure of the data (section 2.2.1.).

6
_Non‐revenue water (NRW):_ The difference between water supplied and water sold as a percentage of the former. This indicator helps assess the loss of saleable water.

- b. _Staff productivity:_ The number of connections per employee. A higher number suggests a greater level of staff efficiency.

**2. Availability**

- a. _Quantity:_ Water consumption in liters per person per day (lpcd). Higher levels of consumption imply improved service delivery.

- _b. Continuity:_ The average number of hours of service per day.

**3. Financial Sustainability**

- a. _Operational cost recovery:_ The ratio between operating revenues and operating costs. A ratio greater than 1 implies that a service provider is able to recover its costs and generate profits.

- b. _Average revenue:_ Operational revenue per cubic meter of water sold.

- c. _Collection ratio:_ Cash income as a percentage of billed operational revenue.

The paper draws upon the data from the IBNET database to assess the efficiency, availability, and financial sustainability of the pourashavas. The key variables described above are summarized in Table 1 below for the years 2010 and 2016.

> 12 (Andres L. A., 2005)

> 13 (Andres, Guasch, Haven, & Foster, 2008)

4
Rwanda, interviewees point out that congestion in online systems at peak times is likely to increase, without adequate (and costly) investments in storage capacity and server upgrades, as more and more taxpayers are now brought into the tax net (also see Mascagni, Dom and Santoro, 2022).

On the bright side of availability of tax infrastructure and systems, the tax administration in Rwanda set up automatic cross-checks of different data sets, such as VAT, income taxes and EBMs, which imply that the self-reported turnover for income taxes is now benchmarked to the total of sales as transmitted by the EFD. Much more can be done in this direction, eventually enabling the abundant pre-filling of income tax returns now common in high income countries.

Third, another important precondition is the preparedness and incentives of revenue authority staff that interface with a new technology. In Sierra Leone, concerns exist around change management, which will determine whether the upcoming ITAS turns out to be op– timal or not since tax officials are used to one specific way of operating which could be difficult to change in a short time. A similar story comes from Malawi, where, as technology evolves, it closes loopholes previously used by some staff for illegal practices. As a result, there was significant resistance and delay in the launch of ITAS. Eventually, the top management provided clear directions of change and started imposing strict deadlines on the staff.

In the case of Uganda, in line with Mayega et al. (2019) and the challenges discussed in section 4, there seems to be weak incentives for staff to change. Since adapting to the new technology is inconvenient to them, they tend to resist it. Staff are very familiar with Excel, where they have more discretion on what to input, while ITAS modules are more complicated, with a variety of often-sophisticated checks and controls, and require more training and commitment. Similarly in Ethiopia, manual practices co-exist with digital ones and are difficult to erase. There are many returns which are not captured
.16|38.5|2.15|2.14|0.04|
|Sixth Decile Products|167,733|840,060|1.33|1.12|38.5|2.65|3.68|-0.21|
|Seventh Decile Products|287,832|595,436|1.15|0.78|69.2|3.04|3.60|-0.37|
|Eighth Decile Products|222,842|469,499|1.73|0.96|46.1|2.05|2.60|-0.77|
|Ninth Decile Products|373,557|516,184|3.48|1.33|46.1|0.86|2.06|-2.14|
|Tenth Decile Products|226,930<br>2,356,437|514,461<br>9,709,400|31.82|10.17|23.1|0.24|1.99|-21.65|

Source: Computed from the data presented in Appendix Table 1.
# Introduction

Participatory governance mechanisms have been widely promoted to empower ordinary citizens, promote government transparency, and improve public service delivery in developing countries (Speer 2012; World Bank 2017). The use of information and communications technologies (ICT), social media, and digital platforms have greatly enhanced the earlier patterns of public participation, creating a massive empirical ground for exploring the benefits of engaging citizens in the coproduction of local information and services. Enhanced by ICT infrastructure, cities are becoming increasingly “smart,” and local governments are working on involving citizens in shaping their urban environment, resolving urban problems, and monitoring policy implementation. These processes are underway in developed and developing countries (Caragliu, Del Bo, and Nijkamp 2011; World Bank 2016). The participatory mechanisms of governance enhanced by ICT and digital platforms have also blurred the boundaries between different political systems. Their use and extensions beyond classical Western democracies have attracted growing academic attention (Chen, Pan, and Xu 2016; Distelhorst and Hou 2017; He and Warren 2011; Toepfl 2018; Truex 2017).

This study explores the political effects of ICT-powered digital public engagement in the context of local politics in the Russian Federation. Specifically, we examine the political effects of ordinary Russians engaging with state officials through the digital platforms designed to draw citizens into local governance in Russia’s capital city and the largest urban center, Moscow. We look at the interrelationship between the usage of online platforms that allow Moscovites to complain about the quality of local roads by reporting the potholes in Moscow and the support for the incumbent in mayoral elections in Moscow. We leverage the geocoded data from these platforms as an indicator of digital public engagement with the local government in the process of co-production and analyze the effects of this engagement on voting using a panel of precinct-level voting data for 2013 and 2018.

Our findings suggest that local digital participation on the issue of local roads is associated with ‘political dividends’ to the incumbent. Engagement with the city government through digital technologies (measured in
NGO, Internationaal Christelijk Steunfonds (ICS), in Busia and Teso districts in Western Kenya. The districts count approximately 350 preschools. Busia and Teso districts are poor and have low educational achievement by Kenyan standards.<sup>19</sup> In 1994, annual per capita income in those districts was only 48 percent of the national average. In 1997, 51 percent of people in the districts were living in “hard-core poverty”.<sup>20</sup> Malnutrition and hunger are highly prevalent in the districts. Nutrition indicators from 1994 show that 39 percent of children were stunted and 9 percent of children were wasted.<sup>21</sup> ICS organized and funded the provision of a school breakfast in 25 schools, randomly chosen from a pool of 50 schools.(Figure 1) The breakfast consisted of a cup of porridge made from a protein-rich ‡our mixture, sugar, corn oil and water. One 500 ml serving has a nutrition value of 422 calories. Porridge is a common, culturally appropriate meal for both adults and children in Kenya. The variety served by ICS was sweeter, contained more fat, and was more nutritious than the average porridge served for breakfast in homes. ICS provided ingredients according to the number of children enrolled in the preschool class. Breakfast was prepared in the school on every school day by a cook under supervision of a parent representative. It was served to the preschool pupils, their teacher(s) and the parent representative. Primary school pupils and teachers were not included in the feeding.

The organization of the program was split between ICS, the schools, the cook and the parents. ICS provided the food, the transportation of the food to the school compound, the cooking utensils, hired a local woman as a cook in every school and paid her a salary. ICS ...eld workers visited the schools at least once per term for monitoring purposes. The schools were responsible for providing a storage facility for the food
SYS-REVIEW/HI-LMIC from SP. King et al _._ (2009) confirm that for all types of care, OOP expenditures are lower for the insured under SP insurance.

For Vietnam ́s VHCFP, Wagstaff (2007) shows no overall impact on OOP expenditures for the insured. However, there is some protection for high levels of expenditures, with the poor experiencing a small effect. The results are susceptible to the matching methods used. Axelson (2009) uses data from two periods and finds a protective effect of insurance; however, there is no impact when a single cross-sectional data period is examined. Wagstaff (2010) uses data from three periods and finds strong and robust measures of a greater decline in OOP expenditures for the insured.

Lei and Lin (2009) do not find a significantly lower level of OOP expenditures for people insured under China’s NCMS. Wagstaff et al _._ (2009) note weak evidence for lower OOP expenditures for the insured under the NCMS; however, this evidence is sensitive to matching methods. For deliveries, the insured received protection, although this protection was weaker for the poorer population. Wagstaff and Lindelow (2008) use a number of econometric specifications through instrumental variable analyses and report that people insured in a (now discontinued) Chinese health insurance scheme actually experienced higher levels of catastrophic payments, measured at various threshold levels.

Only four of 16 studies reporting on costs provided conclusive indications of lower average OOP expenditures for the insured. Seven studies provided mixed results, and two showed no effect. Five studies reported a lower incidence of catastrophic OOP expenditures.

21
*E↵ects of Justice on Trust and Corruption**

Wielding the power of judicial review, courts in modern democracies represent another key component in the system of checks and balances. The integrity of the judiciary is fundamental to the delivery of justice, citizens’ well-being, and a nation’s stability. Thus, enhancing citizens’ trust in judicial institutions is a potential way to ensure other civil and political processes run smoothly. Empirical evidence in fact shows the role of the judiciary to enhance trust in formal institutions, as well as its association with lower crime and democracy promotion.

Pakistani state courts improved citizens’ trust in the state. Citizens reported higher willingness to use state courts, greater trust in them, and larger allocations of funds to these courts. Choi (2010) offers suggestive evidence on courts’ influence on crime reduction and democracy promotion. From 1984 to 2004, his survey of 131 countries indicates that impartial judicial systems are consistently better equipped to redress the grievances of citizens, cultivating a perception of legitimacy and lessening their tendency to turn to terrorist activities.

In a study based on judicial data from the EU Justice Scoreboard, Gutmann and Voigt (2017) found that citizens’ perception of judicial independence at the national level is negatively associated with the presence of formal legislation considered conducive to judicial independence. The authors suggest that this puzzle is explained by cultural traits: countries with high levels of generalized trust (and to a lesser extent individualistic countries) show increased levels of de facto judicial independence, while also having reduced levels of de jure judicial independence.

On the contrary, previous studies, mostly from India and Pakistan, demonstrate how corruption affects judicial decision-making in favor of the executive.

In India, Aney, Dam, and Ko (2017) study whether judges respond to incentives by ruling in favor of the government in the hope of receiving jobs after retiring from the court. They find that
Table 3: ln(Wage) Regression Results for Pension Eligible and Non-Eligible Wage Earners

||Sample|of “older” wo|rkers|Sample|of “younger”|workers|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Model 1|Model 2|Model 3|Model 1|Model 2|Model 3|
|Assigned to Treatment|0.072**|0.058*|0.072**|0.012|0.014|0.012|
||(0.033)|(0.033)|(0.034)|(0.027)|(0.026)|(0.026)|
|Lagged ln(Wage)|0.343***|0.301**|0.294**|0.649***|0.584***|0.575***|
||(0.123)|(0.123)|(0.121)|(0.049)|(0.051)|(0.051)|
|Individual controls|No|Yes|Yes|No|Yes|Yes|
|Firm level controls|No|No|Yes|No|No|Yes|
|City fxed efects|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|381|381|381|705|705|705|
|R-squared|0.476|0.499|0.517|0.436|0.462|0.468|

Source: RUMiC Migrant Survey 2015 and 2016, RUMiC Information Intervention Field Experiment, 2016. Notes: “Older” workers are those workers within fifteen years of retirement age (men over 45, and women over 40), and who cannot expect to receive
Are survey-based self-employment income underreporting estimates biased? New evidence from matched register and survey data.” _International Tax and Public Finance_ 28:284–322.

- Cabral, Marika, and Caroline Hoxby. 2012. _The Hated Property Tax: Salience, Tax Rates, and Tax Revolts._ Working Paper, November. https://www.nber.org/papers/w18514.

- Castro, Lucio, and Carlos Scartascini. 2015. “Tax compliance and enforcement in the pampas evidence from a field experiment.” _Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization_ 116:65–82.

- Chancel, Lucas, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman. 2022. _World Inequality Report 2022._ Harvard University Press. isbn: 9780674273566. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j. ctv3006zpt.

- Christensen, Darin, and Francisco Garfias. 2021. “The Politics of Property Taxation: Fiscal Infrastructure and Electoral Incentives in Brazil” [in en]. _The Journal of Politics_ 83, no. 4 (October): 1399–1416. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/711902.

- Chung, Janne, and Viswanath Umashanker Trivedi. 2003. “The Effect of Friendly Persuasion and Gender on Tax Compliance Behavior.” _Journal of Business Ethics_ 47 (2): 133–145. http://www. jstor.org/stable/25075133.

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