rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
needed to raise only 20 percent from private investors as market validation, with the rest provided by the government as loans with a capped return. The Inovar model has since been exported to other Latin American countries. In 2014, the program managed a $197 million VC portfolio (EMPEA 2016; Leamon and Lerner 2012).

_Source:_ Authors’ compilation, based on various sources.

SIFs may also be thematic investors. Particularly in clean-energy finance, several SIFs have been established with the objective of attracting private investment in wind, solar, and thermal energy infrastructure; and energy efficiency. Some climate-focused SIFs are funded by multilateral financial institutions, including Asia Climate Partners (established by the ADB) and the GEEREF (a hybrid fund with both private and public shareholding established by the EIB and several European governments) (box 3). Green SIFs are emerging at the national level, too. For example, Norway recently announced its intention to establish a domestically focused renewable energy investment fund, Fornybar AS, and the Government of China is considering the establishment of a national green investment fund.

# **Box 3. Examples of Green Strategic Investment Funds**

The **Asia Climate Partners** (ACP) is a $400 million joint initiative of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the financial services group ORIX, and the asset manager Robeco. ACP makes private equity investments in the environmental industries, resource efficiency, and renewable energy sectors in Asia. Besides private equity, ACP

> 5 OECDiLibrary (2013); Ernst & Young puts it at 0.65 percent (EY 2015).

8
# **ONLINE APPENDIX**

- Appendix 1: Examples of Products Manufactured

- Appendix 2: Timeline

- Appendix 3: Data Appendix

- Appendix 4: Drop-out and Attrition

- Appendix 5: Impacts on Individual Management Practices

- Appendix 6: Robustness of Management Improvement to Sample Attrition

Appendix 7: Impacts on World Management Survey and MOPS management measures Appendix 8: Comparison of PILA and Firm Employment Data and Changes in Composition of Firm Employment 42
, see columns 2 and 3).

> 10 See Hausmann and Klinger (2007) for a comparable regression setup.

> 11 Note that the period is 7 years for the initial period 2000-2007 and 5 years for the periods after using overlapping periods 2007-2012, 2008-2013, ..., 2013-2018. This is because ADB MRIOTs are not available for the years 2001-2006. Robustness of the results to alternative lags and non-overlapping periods is considered below.

18
> When comparing the characteristics of both groups, there are some observed differences between the two that point towards a more unfavorable situation for youths in our study’s sample, both in the area of education, as well as in their employment and labor outcomes. In comparison with the reference populations, in our sample, a lower percentage of youths are still studying, they have fewer years of average schooling, there is a greater proportion of them who are selfemployed, they have lower average labor income (their labor income represents 60% of that received by an average youth at the national level), they are working in occupations with lower status and a smaller proportion of them has access to health services. These contrasts are less

> 27As previously mentioned, Yaschine (2015), with data from ENCEL 2007, which included a representative sample of migrants, identified higher rates of absolute mobility and higher social fluidity for this group.

> 28 The working sample for the study of the determinants of occupational attainment is used since it presents a greater number of cases.

> 29 The youths in our group come from rural localities that in 1995 had a high (62.4%) or very high (37.6%) degree of marginalization. As can be observed, a smaller portion of the localities of current residence has a high or very high degree of marginalization, which is due to the modifications in the marginalization level of the localities of origin where around 68% of our study group still resides, as well as to the change of residence to localities with lesser marginalization by part of the rest of the youths. The marginalization classification from the National Population Council (CONAPO, in Spanish) was used. For the localities of origin, the degree of marginalization for 1995 is used and for the localities of current residence the degree of 2010 was taken.

16
the households surveyed, 1,251 had at least one child in public school, 77 had at least one child in private school, and 68 households had children in both public and private schools. This was the 23<sup>rd</sup> round of calls made to the panel of households.

> 1 At the time of sampling (2012), old regional demarcations applied, due to which the schools sampled from Simiyu and Geita belong originally to Shinyanga. This means that data from Simiyu and Geita are not regionally representative.

5
basically flat throughout the city. As in Henderson et al. (2018), the figure implies built cover per grid square is basically flat throughout the city (while building volume and height decline sharply with distance from the center). This clearly shows that smearing population into built cover to calculate within-city density variation would be more problematic than using Landscan data.

# **1.3 Defining Urbanized Areas**

As noted earlier, the problem with typical definitions of urbanized areas – from the United Nations or economic censuses of different countries for instance – is that they employ 8
sum, our results so far suggest that the effects of IDP on manufacturing formal firms are limited to their negative effects on the intensive and extensive margin of production with no other observed effects on the prices or input demands in the formal sector.

> 19As is common in most firm surveys a handful of firms report capital and investment figures, this explains the drop in the number of observations on Table VII. To address the concern that this sample was not selected we imputed capital figures to all the firms available in Table I by doing a two-step exercise: i) we estimate a regression of firm investment on production, intermediate consumption, and sector for the firms that have information available on all variables, ii) we use the estimated coefficients to predict investment figures for the firms that had missing information. We then re-estimate Table VII for all the firms included in Table I. We still find no effects of IDP migration on net investment.

19
borrowers with a below-90th-percentile probability of accepting the offer. In other words, our results suggest that merely receiving the relationship offer reduces the likelihood of loan default, regardless of whether the borrower accepts the offer and benefits from a temporary relaxation of financial constraints or not.

Taken together, this provides evidence that the improvement in repayment in response to forbearance offers framed as an initiative of the lender is not explained by the temporary relaxation of credit constraints and differential changes in the ability to repay as a result of accepting the moratorium.

# **3.6.2 How do borrowers interpret the offer?**

Having ruled out that forbearance offers impact repayment through a change in the ability to repay, we next explore alternative channels through which the offers could affect the _willingness_ to repay.

To do so, we first present evidence from a survey designed to understand how borrowers interpret the forbearance offers extended in our experiment (first-order beliefs) and what they expect the lender to infer from their response to the offer (second-order beliefs). The results are informative about alternative signaling interpretations of our main result. We collected this information using a follow-up survey with 190 borrowers who had received either the regulator or relationship forbearance offer. In the survey, respondents were asked (i) how they thought recipients of the offer had been chosen, (ii) what they thought their response to the offer would signal to the lender and (iii) what they thought was the main rationale for timely loan repayment.

Table 5 reports the results of this exercise by comparing responses of experimental participants assigned to the regulator and relationship offer treatment conditions, respectively. We first asked respondents about how they thought recipients of the offers were selected. Respondents in the regulator offer group were 11 percentage points (28 percent) more likely to respond that they thought offers were issued to _all borrowers_ than respondents in the relationship offer group, who were 14 percentage points (48 percent) more likely to believe that forbearance offers were issued only to the lender’s
hours, starting with a brief introduction, the screening of the movie and an open discussion after the event to reflect on the story’s core messages. This would be followed by the engagement with the MFB. For the purpose of the evaluation, two extra elements were included to the standard Credit Awareness model: (i) to ensure compliance with the assignment strategy each participant received a personalized invitation with a photograph to confirm their identity; and (ii) to improve participation rates, a lottery was held at the end of the event where participants could win spot prizes.

# **3. Sampling and Identification Strategy**

Two community halls large enough to hold 200 people were identified in the Ikotun area of Lagos. A radius of 2km was used to set the boundaries to ensure that all participants could easily access the halls without needing to use public transport. A census of the area was then taken in July 2012, together with a short baseline listing questionnaire used to stratify the sample on whether they had a savings account, whether they kept financial records and if their store was in the main (official) market area, or in the surrounding 7
, or at least half of output intended to be sold (b) In Malawi, households were compared above and below the poverty line. In the Nigeria data, the poverty line variable was not available, so households in the bottom two quintiles of consumption expenditure were compared against other households.

A few gender-related measurement issues need to be addressed with boundary questions. One is proxy response — in separate results from the Malawi survey, women who were proxies for other women/men reported significantly lower market activity on average, compared to individuals reporting for themselves.<sup>3</sup> Women proxies might have less information about farm market activity (similar patterns arise with estimates of hours worked, as discussed in Section III), but this requires further investigation across countries. Addressing seasonality is also important. Table 1 shows that in Nigeria, reported production that is only/mainly for sale is higher in the post-harvest as opposed to post-planting season, which would affect employment estimates; significant gender differences also emerge post-harvest among poor respondents. Asking about intended use of production over the last 12 months in addition to the last 7 days may be one way to address seasonality (similar to other wage/self-employment questions in the LSMSISA, and other household surveys). However, further testing may be needed to address recall issues, particularly for proxy respondents (Gaddis et al, 2019). Integrating boundary questions for each plot/agricultural activity within the survey’s agricultural module could also improve reporting precision, and provide a more detailed view of women’s farming roles along with agricultural module questions on production and decision-making/management (GSARS, 2017). Given the additional burden placed on

> 3 Results available upon request.

7
To better understand how our experimental sample compared to the average property in Dar es Salaam, we matched our experimental data to a set of data comprising every parcel in TRA’s database for the city. Out of approximately 830,000 parcels in the city, nearly 30 percent are owned by a taxpayer in our experimental sample. Parcels included in our experiment were only slightly (1.4 percentage points) less likely to have been issued a bill. Of those that were issued bills, only 35 percent of properties in the experimental sample had been valued by the TRA, as opposed to 74 percent in the rest of the city (those that were not valued were charged a TSh 10,000 flat tax). Conditional on being billed and rated, the median value for properties included in the experiment was higher, approximately 31.2 million TSh (13,500 USD) versus 20 million TSh (8,600 USD) for the rest of the city. Properties that were billed and rated faced, on average, an annual tax rate of approximately 0.16% of the property’s rated value.

# **3.2 Treatments**

In collaboration with the Tanzania Revenue Authority, we randomized each property owner into one of five groups.<sup>3</sup> The treatments are summarized in Table 1. The control was not to receive any message from the TRA. Group T1 received a simple message reminding them to pay their property tax, indicating the due date (June 30th) and providing information the taxpayers could use to contact the TRA in case they had any questions. All other treatments included this reminder message.

Treatment 2 added a ‘reciprocity’ message, where taxpayers were reminded that taxes fund social services and infrastructure and finished with the TRA’s slogan “Together we build our Nation.” Treatment 3 included the simple reminder as well as a ’social pressure’ message in which taxpayers were reminded, in a negative fashion, that non-compliers were
# _Health and Environmental Effects_

The combustion of kerosene is associated with harmful emissions that can lead to respiratory diseases (WHO 2016). Although the relative contribution of kerosene lamps to household air pollution is rather low compared to firewood and charcoal usage for cooking purposes, it is the immediate exposure of people sitting next to a wick lamp for a specific task (e.g., studying), that makes kerosene a substantial health threat (Lam et al. 2012).

Indeed, in our sample kerosene lamps are above all used by children for studying and by women for cooking. In qualitative in‐depth interviews preceding the baseline survey many households complained about sooty kerosene lamps leading to recurring eye problems and kids having black nasal mucus. We therefore examined the extent to which the decrease in kerosene lamp usage translates into a perceived improvement of _air quality_ and, potentially, into a decrease in _respiratory disease symptoms_ and _eye problems_ . At the baseline stage the judgement of most households (around 67 percent in both groups) was that air quality in their houses was good, in the follow‐up survey 45 percent of treated households and only three percent of control households say that the air quality in their homes has improved in comparison to the baseline period. In an open question, virtually all treated households ascribe this improvement to the Pico‐PV lamp. Looking at self‐reported health indicators, though, we cannot confirm that this improved air quality leads to a better health status of the household members, which is not surprising given that cooking fuels are still the dominating source of
# **5.4.1 Data**

I briefly discuss time-series data used to form nowcasts of Brazilian quarterly real GDP growth. All categories of economic data typically included in a GDP-nowcasting model are used here and divided into eight blocks: labor, trade, industrial production, survey, GDP and income, monetary and credit, financial and interest rate, and government finance.<sup>8</sup> All series are monthly data from January 2004 to December 2013. There are capital controls in most of the years in the sample period except 2004 and 2005. These two years are included to have a long enough sample period to train the forecasting model.

# **5.4.2 Empirical methodology**

I adopt the econometric framework in Giannone, Reichlin and Small(2008), widely used by central banks in advanced economies, to produce real-time nowcasts of quarterly Brazilian real GDP growth in a ten-year period between 2004 and 2013. Capital control measures are then added to my information set and they are shown to improve the precision of my nowcasts. I briefly describe the econometric framework below and refer interested readers to the original paper for more detail.

Let Ω _vj_ be the available information set of data vintage _vj_ following release j in month v. The information set consists of: where _xit|vj_ is a generic data series in the information set Ω _vj_ used to form the nowcast, _i_ = 1 _, ..., n_ indexes individual time series (exports, unemployment, etc...), _t_ = 1 _, ..., Tvj_ indexes dates a series in vintage _vj_ is observed ( _Tvj_ the period in which series i in vintage _vj_ is last observed). Assuming no data revisions, the information set is expanding with each release. Let _k_ = 1 _,_ 2 _,_ 3 _, ..._ index quarters, and hence 3 _k_ represents the third month of a quarter (3 _k −_ 1 the
with the top 25 percent flood depth in each country as high flood risk areas. As this is an indicator of long-term flood risk, we have an index only for one time point. The flood risk maps for three case countries are shown in Figure 2.

Taking advantage of the panel data spanning over a long duration, we additionally analyzed rainfall anomalies as a climatic factor for Indonesia. The SPEI is a multiscalar drought index (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2010). The construction requires data on temperature, precipitation, and potential evaporation. Accordingly, we processed <mark>monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration derived from the terraclimate data from 1958 to 2020. T</mark> he <mark>SPEI</mark> data are fitted to a gamma distribution and normalized to a flexible multiple time scale such as 1, 4, 6, 12, 24, and 48 months. For the study, we considered a 12-month time scale for each year from 1993 to 2015 with two lag periods for each IFLS wave.<sup>7</sup> <mark>Negative SPEI values represent rainfall deficit—less than median precipitation—and high potential evapotranspiration (dry) starts when the SPEI value is equal to or below −1.0. On the other hand, positive SPEI values indicate rainfall surplus—greater than median precipitation—and low potential evapotranspiration (wet) starts when the SPEI value is equal to or above 1.0. F</mark> igure 3 <mark>illustrates the SPEI values in Indonesian districts as of March 2014.</mark>

> 7 The computation involves the following three steps (Harari and La Ferrara 2018). We first compute the difference (D) between precipitation and evapotranspiration (PET) and accounted for the climatic water balance defined at the monthly level. The Penman-Monteith equation is used to approximate the PET (as recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) as the best method for determining reference evapotranspiration).
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interaction term is significant and negative, consistent with the hypothesis. However, the results are less robust than those without the additional nonlinear term. These results are presented in Olper and Swinnen (2012).

# **_VI. CONCLUSIONS_**

This paper provides evidence of the relationship between mass media competition and agricultural protection for a large group of countries. Strömberg’s (2004a) theory predicts that information provided by the mass media, reflecting the media’s incentives to provide news to different groups in society, affects government policy making and who benefits from government policies. The theory predicts that mass media competition will induce a policy bias toward large groups and groups that are more valuable to advertisers; these groups are more informed because the mass media target them.

We apply this theory to agricultural policy. This results in the hypotheses that ( _a_ ) given the changing role of the agricultural sector due to economic development, the impact of mass media competition on agricultural policy will differ between poor and rich countries, ceteris paribus, and ( _b_ ) this effect is contrary to the so-called development paradox of agricultural policies. Thus, the traditional change in agricultural policy from taxation to subsidization that is associated with economic development will be smoothed in the presence of mass media competition. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of the group size effect, with larger groups being more attractive to the media, and the advertiser value effect, with richer groups being more attractive audiences for the media.

We use data on agricultural policy from 69 countries spanning a wide range of development stages and media markets to test these predictions. Our empirical results are 29
Source: ECB Lending Survey July 2012 Source: ECB Lending Survey July 2012

# **Second, European banks face several Euro-Area-specific regulatory conditions.**

- _EBA capital exercise:_ In addition to adjusting to Basel III, European banks were required by the European Banking Authority (EBA) to raise their Core Tier 1 ratios to 9 percent by June 2012 after accounting for an additional buffer against sovereign risks in their portfolios. Most European banks achieved the target ratio by end-June 2012 and have boosted their capital by over €200 billion since December 2011.<sup>30</sup> The EBA recently announced banks are required to conserve the absolute amount of capital they have accumulated.

- _State-aid conditions:_ In 2009, the European Commission required that “banks benefitting from state aid may be required to divest subsidiaries and branches, portfolios of customers or business units...” to minimize competitive distortions and cost to the tax payer. Several banks have still not finalized this clean-up process of their balance sheets and the shedding of legacy assets.

- _Additional national regulatory measures:_ Banks have also been subject to additional regulatory requirements by national regulators including ring fencing of foreign bank operations. Yet, while these measures aim to protect the domestic financial system, they also contribute to further financial fragmentation of the European financial system. Banks in peripheral countries may also have been compelled to participate in domestic sovereign bond markets to substitute for foreign capital flight crowding out lending activity in the process.

# **_<u>Economic drivers</u>_**

- _Economic slowdown:_ Significant economic slowdown in the Euro Area, in part a result of front-loaded austerity programs, depresses bank asset growth and profitability which undermines the capacity of banks to boost retained earnings. Moreover, going forward the global economic slowdown impedes the expansion and profitability of foreign operations.

- _Sovereign-bank-real economy feedback loop:_ The negative bank-sovereign-real economy feedback loop that became apparent during the European sovereign debt crisis has not yet been broken. In