rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
the bank’s customer communications. The experiment was administered as part of a phone survey with the partner bank’s credit card customers and proceeded in the following steps. First, we elicited the respondents’ exchange rate and inflation expectations. Second, we provided randomly chosen subsets of the sample population with expert forecasts of inflation, the exchange rate, or both. Third, we elicited participants’ posterior beliefs and self-reported spending plans. Finally, we merged survey responses with data on credit card spending provided by the partner bank. This approach allows us to examine the impact of macroeconomic expectations on _actual_ consumption behavior.

The setting and customer population we use in our experiment are well-suited to study the link between macroeconomic expectations and economic decisions for several reasons. Macroeconomic trends in Malaysia are arguably representative of many small, open economies and,

1. See `www.federalreserve.gov/faqs` .

2
and personal capital income. In schedular systems (where personal capital income is taxed separately, and often at lower rates than labor income) it is more challenging to capture personal capital income. Use of tax return data can often aid the capture of capital income taxes, but introduces other potential problems regarding the representativeness of the data.

Distributional analyses can also be undertaken for social security contributions (SSCs), although incidence becomes more questionable, especially regarding employer contributions. Furthermore, the treatment of the pension component of social contributions raises the more general question regarding the degree to which contributions reflect a pure tax as compared to compulsory savings. In some cases, information on property taxes is also obtainable from household surveys enabling distributional analysis.<sup>3</sup> Meanwhile, consumption survey microdata can be used to model the progressivity of consumption taxes, such as the value-added tax (VAT) and excise taxes (including health- and energy-related taxes). In such analyses, a standard assumption is made that incidence falls entirely on consumers, although empirical evidence suggests this is not always the case (see, e.g., IHS, 2011; Benedek et al., 2019; Benzarti et al.,

> 2 Underreporting of top incomes in household income survey data is a key issue being considered as part of the overall tax progressivity and inclusive growth project. Two approaches are currently being developed: (1) a methodology utilizing information from tax return data to adjust top incomes in income surveys for underreporting; and (2) a pareto distribution-based approach to adjust top incomes in income surveys when tax return data is not available. A further problem is that top incomes in tax return data will not reflect tax avoidance (or evasion). For example, income that is retained in a closely held company will typically not be realized (and taxed) at the personal level until distributed, enabling corporate structures to be used for tax avoidance. In this regard, Alstadsaeter et al. (2016) link individual
|**Table 8. Inter-temporal deflators**|
|---|

|**Country**|**Year**|**2011 PPP**|**Intertemporal**<br>**deflator **|
|---|---|---|---|
|Afghanistan<sup>15</sup>|2012|n.a.|n.a.|
|Bangladesh|2010|24.85|0.90|
|Bhutan|2012|16.96|1.11|
|India|2011/12|13.78|1.04|
|- Rural|2011/12|12.91|1.03|
|- Urban|2011/12|15.69|1.04|
|Maldives|2009|10.68|0.87|
|Nepal|2010|25.76|0.93|
|Pakistan|2011/12|25.41|1.05|
|Sri Lanka|2012/13|42.22|1.11|

Source: Authors’ own estimates based on South Asia Harmonized Micro Dataset (SARMD). All countries use CPI, except for Bangladesh, that uses BNPI.

# **5. Assessing differences to estimate national consumption aggregates**

# _Standardized vs. national consumption aggregates_<sup>_16_</sup>

Because of the wide variation in the way consumption data are collected by each country, the World Bank developed a standardized data set of consumption aggregates. The standardization of the consumption aggregates was constructed by reclassifying expenditure items into the categories adopted by the International Comparison Program (ICP) - which has 110 basic headings, 91 classes, 43 groups and 13 categories, and designing strict data cleaning procedures to ensure consistency in the standardization.<sup>17</sup> However, this standardization has limitations (Dupriez, 2007). Although consumption aggregates are
but only one in eight or one in six cars is designated as reserved space. Both administrative and rider audit data confirm that the reserved space is at least as crowded as the public space (Figure A2).

Observations recorded by our platform observers confirm that, even though the reserved space is designated for women only, substantial numbers of men ride in the reserved space (Figure A3). The presence of officers enforcing the policy varies substantially by station, resulting in variation in presence of male riders (Figure A4). Moreover, the cars are connected internally; it is possible for men to move from public to reserved space after boarding, further complicating enforcement. Figure A3 shows that the average proportion of men in the reserved space is 29 percent compared to 58 percent in the public space. The difference in male presence across public and reserved space at a given time and location also varies substantially (Figure A4).<sup>22</sup>

# **4.2 Riders and Their Experiences**

Table 1, Panel A, shows socio-economic characteristics of the riders and platform survey respondents. Column 1 reports characteristics of our crowdsourcing app users. Most participants are regular commuters: about 70 percent are employed, and the average participant rides the SuperVia 6 times a week. Unemployed participants are the minority, but are overrepresented in the rider sample relative to the representative platform sample; this is likely because participation in the app served as a form of employment or subsidized search costs. The smartphone app also attracted a somewhat younger and more educated pool of participants than the average commuter. Stated use of the reserved space is slightly lower among crowdsourced riders than general women commuters, although both groups report taking close to half of their rides in the reserved space.

> 22In November-December 2016, we worked with the SuperVia authorities to implement an experiment to deploy enforcement staff to experimentally vary enforcement of the reservation rule. However, due to limited numbers of staff, this failed to generate sufficient variation in the presence
Policy Research Working Paper 8856

# **Abstract**

Little literature currently exists on the effects of childcare use on maternal labor market outcomes in a developing country context, and recent studies offer mixed results. This paper attempts to fill these gaps by analyzing several of the latest rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey spanning the early to mid-2010s. Addressing endogeneity issues with a regression discontinuity estimator based on children’s birth months, the paper finds a sizable effect of childcare attendance on women’s labor market outcomes, including their total annual wages, household income, and poverty status. The effects of childcare attendance differ by women’s characteristics and are particularly strong for younger, more educated women. Furthermore, childcare has a medium-term effect and positively impacts men’s labor market outcomes as well.

This paper is a product of the Development Data Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at hdang@worldbank.org or cuongwur@gmail.com.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
......<br>80|
|COMPETITION ....<br>,82|
|**ANNEX 6: CLASSIFICATION OF LOANS, LOAN LOSS PROVISIONING, AND**WRITE-OFFS.........................<br>**ANNEX**_7:_<br>**SUBSIDY**<br>**DEPENDENCE INDEX FOR RURA L FINANCE**<br>**...........................................................................**<br>**85**<br>**BIBLIOGRA PHY**............................................................................<br>89<br>SA IN S<br>R DU<br>TS...........................................................................................<
**oI** ICY RFSEARCH WORKING PAPER 2549

# Summary **findings**

Luttmer uses instrumental variable methods and the decomposition of income into transitory and persistent components to distinguish underlying income inequality and changes in poverty from the effects attributable to measurement error or transitory shocks. He applies this methodology to household-level panel data for Russia and Poland in the mid-1990s. Luttmer finds that:

* Accounting for noise in the data reduces inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient) by 10-45 percent.

* Individuals in both countries face much economic insecurity. The median absolute annual change in income

or spending is about 50 percent in Russia and about 20 percent in Poland. But roughly half of these fluctuations reflect measurement error or transitory shocks, so underlying levels of income and spending are much more stable than the data suggest.

_*_ The apparent high levels of economic mobility are driven largely by transitory events and noisy data. After transitory shocks are accounted for, about 80 percent of the poor in both Russia and Poland remain in poverty for at least one year. So there is a real risk of an entrenched underclass emerging in these transition economies.

This paper-a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to analyze poverty and inequality in Europe and Central Asia. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Cecile Wodon, room J7-268, telephone 202-473-2542, fax 202-473-8466, email address cwodon@worldbank.org. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at luttmer@uchicago.edu. February 2001. (38 pages) _The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished.
’s intermediate inputs that require relationship-specific investments and differentiated products; and where relationship stickiness, as measured by firm to firm relationship durations, is low (panel I) particularly for output and firm size in the young plants.<sup>13</sup> Together, these patterns are suggestive of a more “anonymous” internal offshoring behavior, that is, young plants can become parts of value chains that do not require proximity to clients to tailor intermediate inputs and may be substituted by other providers relatively easily.

> 13 Based on Martin et al. (2023). This is a measure of stickiness in business relationships constructed at the product-level using firm-to-firm relationship duration data. The higher degree of stickiness translates into a lower probability of switching and longer firm-to-firm trade relationships, conditional on match quality.

14
# **IV. CONCLUSIONS**

Over the long run, financial development supports and promotes economic growth. However, the path to development is far from smooth; and along the way, economic growth can suffer from the financial fragility that characterizes maturing systems. The process of financial development entails a deepening of markets and services that channel savings to productive investment and allow risk diversification; these positive aspects of financial development lead to higher economic growth in the long run. As economies mature, however, the same process can present weaknesses evidenced by systemic banking crises, cycles of booms and busts, and overall financial volatility. Whether intrinsic to the process of development or induced by policy mistakes, these elements of financial fragility can hurt economic growth and will do so until maturity is reached.

Recognizing the possibility of a dual effect of financial intermediation on economic growth, this paper estimates an encompassing empirical model of long- and short-run effects using a sample of cross-country and time-series observations. We find that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth can coexist with a negative short-run relationship, which indeed is the case for the average country in the sample. Since the methodology allows us to obtain the short-run effects of financial intermediation on growth country by country, we can attempt to link these effects to the aspects of financial liberalization that the literature proposes as harmful to growth. We find that financially fragile countries, namely those that experience banking crises or suffer high financial volatility, tend to present significantly negative short-run effects of intermediation on growth. For more stable countries, this effect is in average nil.

Finally, attempting to relate our results to the empirical growth literature, we go back to the classic context of growth regressions using panel data. We find that the volatility and crisis aspects of financial intermediation are relevant growth determinants, along with the usual measures of financial depth. However, whereas financial depth leads to higher growth, financial fragility --as captured by financial volatility and banking crises-- has negative growth consequences.
Policy Research Working Paper 10456

# **Abstract**

Over the past decade, national statistical offices in low- and middle-income countries have increasingly transitioned to computer-assisted personal interviewing and computer-assisted telephone interviewing for the implementation of household surveys. The byproducts of these types of data collection are survey paradata, which can unlock objective, module- and question-specific, actionable insights on respondent burden, survey costs, and interviewer effects. This study does precisely that, using paradata generated - by the Survey Solutions computer-assisted personal inter viewing platform in recent national household surveys implemented by the national statistical offices in Cambodia, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. Across countries, the average household interview, based on a socioeconomic household questionnaire, ranges from 82 to 120 minutes, while the average interview with an adult household member, based on a multi-topic individual questionnaire, takes between 13 to 25 minutes. Using a multilevel model that is estimated for each household and individual questionnaire module, the paper shows that interviewer effects on module duration are significantly larger than the estimates from high-income contexts. Food consumption, household roster, and nonfarm enterprises consistently emerge among the top five household questionnaire modules in terms of total variance in duration, with 5 to 50 percent of the variability being attributable to interviewers. Similarly, labor, health, and land ownership appear among the top five individual questionnaire modules in terms of total variance in duration, with 6 to 50 percent of the variability being attributable to interviewers. These findings, particularly by module, point to where additional interviewer training, fieldwork supervision, and data quality monitoring may be needed in future surveys.

This paper is a product of the Development Data Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at ardina.hasanbasri@yale.edu or tkilic@
# **EQUILIBRIUM CREDIT: THE REFERENCE POINT FOR MACROPRUDENTIAL SUPERVISORS**<sup>_⋆_</sup>

DANIEL BUNCIC MARTIN MELECKY<sup>#</sup>

**Keywords:** Equilibrium Credit, Macroprudential Supervision, Demand for Credit, Time-Series Panel Data, High- and Middle Income Countries. **JEL Classification:** G28, G21, E58. **Sectoral Board:** Financial Sector (FSE).

> _⋆_ We thank Miguel Dijkman, Joaquin Gutierrez and Mar ́ıa Soledad Mart ́ınez Per ́ıa for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. The views and opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do

Corresponding Author: Institute of Mathematics & Statistics, University of St. Gallen, Bodanstrasse 6, 9000 St. Gallen, Switzerland. Tel: +41 (71) 224 2604. Email: daniel.buncic@unisg.ch. Web: http://www. danielbuncic.com.

> #Development Economics and Chief Economist Group , World Bank Group, Mail stop G-5-141. Tel.: +1 202 473 1924. Email: mmelecky@worldbank.org. Web: http://mmelecky.ic.cz.

1
measurement as groundwater is generally fresh. Finally, we interpolated the point data ( _n_ =563) at the national-scale using the IDW algorithm in ArcGIS environment. The interpolation error was 50 μS/cm compared to the data range of 27 to 43,950 μS/cm with a mean of 5,251 μS/cm. We then rasterized, using the ‘R’ programming language, the interpolated EC data at a grid resolution of 2.5-km × 2.5-km (Figure 2b).

# **2.3 Depth to dry-season groundwater levels**

We use mean depth to dry-season (December–April) groundwater levels as a hydrological indicator for representing groundwater storage depletion in Bangladesh. This is an important measure of sustainability of shallow groundwater abstraction in Bangladesh using low-lift pumps, for example, the No. 6 hand-operated pump, which is widely used for drinking and domestic purposes (see Supplementary Texts for further details). Mean depths to dry-season groundwater levels were estimated from weekly monitoring records from 236 boreholes from 5
per day. However, the number of revisers and their scale is so small that the revisions increase total revenue by less than .5%.<sup>26</sup> The low response rate, osetting cost adjustments and marginal tax revenue gains of these desk audits are all consistent with the fact that the under-reporting rates in Table V are very similar when considering rms' initial returns rather than their nal returns, or earlier or later scal years.

This analysis has thus shown that, although misreporting compared to third-party information is present, its levels are moderate, probably due the deterrence eect of routine cross-checks, desk audits and other compliance interventions by the tax authorities. Perfectly enforcing reporting of third-party reported margins could increase income tax revenue by 10% in theory, but the realized eect of desk audits is orders of magnitude smaller.

# 4.3 Payment Compliance

To examine taxpayers' compliance with the obligation to pay their net tax liability, we match the income and sales tax returns with payment records from the D110 payment receipts. Importantly, the payment receipts display both the payment date and the tax period and taxpayer to which the payment corresponds, allowing us to exactly match payments with liabilities. To our knowledge, this is the rst attempt at estimating payment compliance for the income and sales tax, testing the previously implicit assumption that declared tax liabilities automatically translate into payments.<sup>27</sup> The relevant liability is the taxpayer's nal tax liability to be paid as per the nal (revised) tax returns, after deductions, advance payments and tax withheld have been subtracted.<sup>28</sup> We compare this liability to the tax payment that the taxpayer makes herself, excluding payments made by withholding agents and advance payments made by the taxpayer.<sup>29</sup> We then take the share of payment over liability for each taxpayer, and average this share across all taxpayers in each scal period.

The results
get it in a timely manner. The rationing rate will depend in part on how effective the scheme‘s implementation is at quickly responding to demand.

How can we measure the true demand for work and hence the rationing rate? The administrative data indicate virtually no un-met demand for work on MGNREGS. According to the administrative data, 52.865 million households in India demanded work in 2009/10, and 99.4% (52.53 million) were provided work.<sup>8</sup> However, this is deceptive. What is called ―demand for work‖ in the administrative data is unlikely to reflect the true demand. Several studies have found that the work application process and the system for recording demand for work is not yet in place.<sup>9</sup> Further, state and local governments have an incentive not to report un-met demand given that this implies they should pay unemployment allowances. Also, some people will undoubtedly be deterred from formally obtaining job-cards, demanding work from the officials, or do not even know that they have the right to make such demands.<sup>10</sup> A better measure of demand for work is obtained by asking people directly in their homes and independently of the scheme. The data we use here comes from the 66<sup>th</sup> Round of the NSS for 2009/10 which included questions on participation and demand for work in MGNREGS that allow us to estimate demand and rationing rates across states. The survey was conducted between July 2009 and June 2010 in all states. The Employment-Unemployment Survey (―Schedule 10.0‖) included three questions on the program: (i) whether the household has a job card; (ii) whether it got work on the scheme during the last 365 days, for which responses were coded under three options: got work, sought but did not get work, and did not seek work in MGNREGS; and (iii) if
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