rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
between this assignment and nonobservables that drive program effects.

All of the individual outcomes relate to pregnancies and many women do not give birth in both waves of the survey. Hence, we treat the 2006 and 2008 household surveys, described below, as repeated cross-sections and estimate the following regression specification of the difference-in-difference model for individual outcomes:

> 8 According to MINALOC 2004, the objective of the decentralization was to enhance institutional development and capacity building for responsive local governance., to develop an efficient transparent and accountable fiscal and financial management system at local government and grassroots level.

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# **Introduction**

It takes 116 days to move an export container from the factory in Bangui (Central African Republic) to the nearest port and fulfill all the customs, administrative, and port requirements to load the cargo onto a ship. It takes 71 days to do so from Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), 87 days from N’djamena (Chad), 93 from Almaty (Kazakhstan), and 105 from Baghdad. In contrast, it takes only 5 days from Copenhagen, 6 from Berlin, 16 from Port Louis (Mauritius), 20 days from Shanghai, Kuala Lumpur or Santiago de Chile.

We introduce and utilize new data on trade costs from the World Bank’s Doing Business report. The data are collected from 345 freight forwarders, port and customs officials operating in 126 countries. We use data on the average time it takes to get a 20foot container of an identical good from a factory in the largest business city to a ship in the most accessible port.

Our goal is to estimate the effect of time costs on trade volumes. A standard tool is the gravity equation.<sup>1</sup> There are, however, two concerns with the use of a gravity equation that we address. The main concern is that the volume of trade may directly affect trade facilitation. The marginal value of investment in trade facilitation is higher when the trade volume is large since cost savings are passed on to a larger quantity of goods. In addition, many time-saving techniques, such as computerized container scanning, are only available in high-volume ports. Thus, while more efficient trade facilitation stimulates trade, trade also generates improved trade facilitation.<sup>2</sup>

> 1 Wilson et. al. (2004) and Nordas and Piermartini (2004) use a standard gravity equation to estimate how trade facilitation costs and infrastructure affect trade flows using a gravity model.  They use data on port efficiency from the Global Competitiveness Report.  These data are based on perception
commodity price volatility upwards. But, again, such historical analyses focus on commodity prices relative to an aggregate price index of non-commodity goods, which might be misleading.

As a starting point, the analysis focuses on aggregate price indexes – see Figures 1 and 2. A relevant issue in this type of analysis concerns the definition of commodities. The International Monetary Fund has one such classification, which includes non-fuel, energy and all primary commodities. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) also has a definition, which includes some commodities that are not in the IMF’s, such as cottonseed oil and manganese ore. Appendix 1 lists the commodities included under both definitions. In addition, it is easy to tell which goods are manufactured in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). At the two digit level, chapters 3139 of the NAICS are classified as manufactured goods.

Since the data on import prices from the U.S. are classified according to the Harmonized System, we used concordance tables between the HS and the NAICS.<sup>5</sup> To match the HS data classification to the IMF and UNCTAD commodity classifications, we used the names of the commodities as keywords to find matching product descriptions in the trade data.

To assess the volatility of individual goods prices it is important to de-trend the price series.

We report results based on the Hodrick-Prescott filtered series, but all results reported herein

> 5 Robert Feenstra’s web site provides the concordance for data from 1989-2006: http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/. - The U.S. Census Bureau provides concordance tables for 2010 and 2011: http://www.cnesus.gov/foreign <u>trade/reference/codes/index.html.</u>

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Following the selection of the EAs, a fresh household listing was conducted, and 15 households were then randomly selected from each EA and interviewed for the study. This gave a total of 2,000 households and over 7,700 individuals. Labor-related data were collected for individuals aged 15 years and older, in accordance with the legal employment age in Ghana. Overall, 4,497 individuals successfully provided this information. Gender role attitudes and personality traits information was collected only from individuals that were available and able to answer for themselves during the survey. Within each household, up to 4 individuals aged 15-64 were randomly selected to provide gender roles attitudes and personality traits information. Given that one of the primary study objectives was to investigate the impact of gender role attitudes and personality traits on labor market participation and employment choices, we further restricted the sample to include only individuals aged 15 years or older who provided complete information on gender role attitudes and personality traits modules. This additional restriction resulted in an analytical sample of 2,478 individuals. In the subsequent analyses and results, the 4,497 individuals constitute the _full survey sample_ , while the 2,478 restricted sample constitutes the _analytical or pooled sample_ .

# **3.2. Definition and construction of analytical variables**

Table 1 outlines the definitions of variables used in the analysis. The demographic variables are those found in the literature to be main drivers of labor market participation and employment choice (Baah-Boateng, 2014; Contreas et al., 2010; Naudé and Serumaga- Zake, 2010). In this section, we provide additional clarity on the construction of some of these variables. An individual (15 years or older) is classified as employed if they worked for at least one hour in the 7 days prior to the day of interview or have been temporarily absent from their job. _Self-employed_ pertains to individuals (> 15 years of age) who either operate their own business or contribute to another household member’s business. _Wage employment_ refers to working
by the Burundian Ministry of Health in the first trimester of 2024. The count of women of childbearing age (15-49 years old) at each health center is estimated by multiplying the local population within the health center’s catchment area by the national proportion of this demographic (23.7%). The local health authority refers to the nearest administrative office within the community, while the regional health authority corresponds to the official health district office where the health center is located. Panel B presents the monthly quantity of contraceptives administered during the baseline period, according to the National Health Information System (NHIS). Data for the period between January 2020 and March 2022 (i.e., before training was implemented in the treatment arm) were collapsed at the health center level.

# All statistics presented in the table are statistically similar between the treatment and

# control groups (columns 2 and 3). We observe statistically significance differences neither in the capacity levels of health centers nor contraceptive delivery between the two groups (column

> 7 The weighted average of contraceptive coverage takes into account the proportion of each province in our sample. The province-level coverage rates for 15-49 year old women in unions at the time of the DHS survey were reported as follows: 16.2% for Bubanza, 20.3% for Cankuzo, 12.8% for Cibitoke, 27.4% for Kirundo, 8.6% for Makamba, and 27.8% for Muyinga (Burundi Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, 2017). These rates encompass reversible modern contraceptive methods such as injectables, monthly pills, morning-after pills, condoms, implants, and IUDs. When considering sterilization, natural, and traditional methods, coverage rises to 26.8% in our sample and 28.5% nationally.

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_

# 3. Methodology

## 3.1 Data

Two public procurement data sources were used for the analysis, following Fazekas et al. (2024). First, all tenders and contracts were collected from the historic national e- procurement portal, AOP (http://www.aop.bg//). Second, all publications from the new national e-procurement portal, EOP (https://app.eop.bg) were collected too. The collection and processing were performed using automated web-scrapers and data cleaning algorithms, in line with the opentender.eu data collection infrastructure (Fazekas 8
—so reducing import protection is expected also to boost exports. The idea is that an increase in import tariffs appreciates the home real exchange rate as the domestic policy rate and the international interest rate differential increases. The terms of trade appreciation, in turn, induces a positive effect on consumption but a drag on real net exports (Linde and Pescatori 2017). The connection of imports (Hummels and Schauer, 2013). Customs delays also reduce exports value and export market diversification (Volpe Martincus, Carballo and Graziano, 2015).

> 16 Organized as a joint effort between more than 20 agencies and the private sector, Portal Unico promotes the simplification, streamlining and cost reduction of trade-related procedures and formalities with the support of risk management, automation and information technology tools. The initiative aims to eliminate redundant formalities and document requirements, to optimize the performance of the agencies which intervene in trade, and to reduce by 40 percent the average time to export and to import. According to the 2018 Doing Business report, the average time to comply with documentary export obligations fell from 18 to 12 hours between 2016 and 2017, a reduction of a third. The average time on the import side decreased from 120 to 48 hours, a reduction of 60 percent. Brazil improved by 10 positions in the “Trading across borders” indicator.

> 17 Recent examples include the cooperation between Mercosur and the Pacific Alliance countries to enable the exchange of electronic trade documents. Certificates of origin, originally in paper, are already being replaced by digital documents with Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. Brazil is also working to exchange electronic phytosanitary certificates with the United States.

8
taxpayer registry in 1993, which is indeed impressive. At the same time only 35% of taxpayers have filed on average over the period, and SUNAT has not been able to increase the relative amount filing (as a percentage of those registered).

A more detailed analysis shows that SUNAT has been using its limited resources judiciously. Data from 1997 show that SUNAT has focused its efforts on large and medium taxpayers, and has been extremely successful in the process. The 33,300 large and medium taxpayers are well-controlled by SUNAT: the ratios of those declaring and paying are 100%. The same ratios for the general and other simplified regimes, however, were quite low.

The data available for Venezuela allow for a limited comparison, revealing that SENIAT’s control over its large taxpayers was weaker when compared with SUNAT’s. The absolute number of non-filers in SENIAT’s large taxpayers unit increased steadily since 1995, nearly tripling by 1998. The average percentage of non-filers to the number of large taxpayers registered was 32% over the period, suggesting a large hole in the administration’s effort to increase compliance.

Another useful indicator of administrative performance is late payments by taxpayers (total late payments by taxpayers during the year). Data also showed that the number of large taxpayers in Venezuela making late payments increased since 1995, more than tripling by 1998, though the amount of taxes paid late as a percentage of total collections was quite small (about 1%).

In South Africa SARS steadily broadened the tax net with impressive year on year growth. From March 1996 to March 2001 the number of taxpayers with active status grew from 518,649 to 976,720 for corporate income taxpayers; 1,929,274 to 3,187,072 for individual income taxpayers; 388,454 to 450,630 for VAT taxpayers; and 188,841 to 211,425 for PAYE taxpayers. From 2000-2001 the percentage of active individual taxpayers grew by 13.9% while the growth of active corporate
do this, but of particular interest and popularity have been the concepts of PRODY and PATH, first proposed by Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2005) in their seminal paper “What you export matters”, and further developed in Hausmann and Klinger (2007). As part of their analysis, Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik define the related concepts of PRODY (a measure of the “productivity” or “income potential” of a given product), EXPY (an aggregate measure of the productivity or income potential of a country„s overall export basket, essentially the weighted average of PRODYs), and PATH (a measure of the scope for future diversification from a product, based on the minimum of probabilities that a country exporting one product will export another). The authors use these tools to construct a framework through which a country„s current and potential export performance can be assessed.<sup>2</sup> In this paper we focus on PRODY and PATH, but we will also make use of the concept of revealed comparative advantage (RCA), defined as:

> 2 See Record and Nghardsaysone (2009) for a fuller application of the Hausmann-Hwang-Rodrik methodology to the Lao data.

_Exporting from a small landlocked economy_ _5_
).

Best et al. (2020) estimate the effectiveness of carbon pricing at reducing national CO 2 emissions using panel data from 142 countries from 1997-2017. They find that the average annual growth rate of CO 2 emissions has been around two percentage points lower in countries with a carbon price system compared to countries without. They estimate that an additional euro per ton of CO 2 carbon price is associated with a reduction in the subsequent annual emissions growth rate of approximately 0.3 percentage points, all else equal. On methodology, Best et al. face two main identification challenges. First, a country panel with country and time fixed effects can only control for time-invariant country-specific characteristics and a global time trend that does not vary by country. Failure to capture unobserved time-varying country heterogeneity may lead to omitted 5
the start of the conflict are dropped, since they are only 14 at the time of the 2006 survey and so not eligible to be interviewed individually.

I then estimate the effect of exposure to conflict during marriageable age in a similar specification, but modifying the definitions of the dependent variable, and of the treated and control cohorts accordingly. The exposed cohort comprises individuals aged 13 to 17 years old at the start of the conflict in 1996 and the control cohort comprises those aged 23 to 27 in 1996. This is based on the observation that marriages tend to start taking place in the mid-teens and that, at the time of the 2006 DHS, all women in the treated cohort were 21 or older. Therefore, the outcome variable is a dummy equal to one if the index woman was married by the age of 21 to account for the right-truncation of the marriage variable. The youngest woman included in the control cohort was aged 23 at the start of the conflict, so that the outcome of interest (whether married by 21) was realised before the start of the conflict for this cohort. When using NLSS data, I keep the same definitions for the treated and control cohorts, but given the earlier date of the survey, the treated cohort is observed at a younger age. Therefore, I consider the probability of marriage by 18 years old instead.

All specifications are estimated using district fixed-effects panel data models, and all models allow for residuals to be correlated in an arbitrary fashion within district to avoid over-rejection of the null hypothesis of zero treatment effect due to serial correlation, following Bertrand et al. (2004). All outcome variables used in the analysis are listed in Table 2.

# Table 2 goes about here

# **Test of pre-conflict differences in trends**

The main threat to identification in a difference-in-difference setting is the potential for unobserved time-varying omitted factors correlated with the treatment. It is impossible to test whether there are such omitted variables coinciding precisely with the treatment at hand. But one can test
we geolocate the organization’s unstructured addresses using the HERE REST APIs<sup>2</sup> to standardize 1,429 unstructured address values to 764 unique values. This improves the dataset by removing spelling errors and having locations in different languages. Since the source lacks consistent organization IDs, we also generate a unique organization identification number. For procurement authorities, we use the lowest available geolocation (district when available) along with a cleaned name to generate the identification number. For suppliers, we use the structured supplier city, cleaned name and a supplier’s legal form to tag organizations.

In the following analysis, we use 169,830 tenders which resulted in 267,427 contracts awarded between 2011 and 2022. Figure 1 shows the seasonality of public procurement purchases both in terms of the number of tenders and contracts (Panel A) and total spending (Panel B). Public procurement data became steadily available in 2011 and the publication rate increased in the following years, whereas total spending covered by the dataset fluctuates around 2.5 billion to 5 MKD per month with a slight increase in spending during the second half of 2021.

> 1 For a full description of the data standard see: https://opentender.eu/mk/about/how-opentender-works

> 2 - <u>https://developer.here.com/develop/rest apis</u>

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Policy Research Working Paper 10536

# **Abstract**

This paper investigates the impacts of job displacement on subsequent labor market outcomes, focusing on differentiated effects by educational groups and gender. The findings show that job separations caused by plant closings result in sizable and long-lasting wage reductions, with an average decline of −7.5 percent over a nine-year period relative to workers who did not experience job losses. A stronger effect is estimated for highly educated workers than for low educated workers, with initial effects being 18.4 and 9 percent wage drops, respectively. For working hours, the effect on low educated workers is double the effect on highly educated workers, with 3.0 and 1.5 additional hours per week, respectively. Using the rotating panel of the survey, difference in differences coefficients are estimated, removing time-invariant individual heterogeneity. Compared to ordinary least squares, the difference in differences estimates reduce the magnitude of the average impacts of plant closing on wages, from −7.5 to −4.7 percent, and on working hours from 1.4 to 0.53 additional hours. These results suggest that the ordinary least squares estimates are upwardly biased due to omitted individual worker heterogeneity. The paper discusses another potential remaining source of endogeneity concerning the quality of the match between employers and workers.

This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at dlederman@worldbank.org and fariasvazquez@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click **here** for direct access.

<!-- Start of picture text --> TRANSPARENT
systems shows that, in the 138 countries covered by the Enterprise Surveys, sales losses are worth US$81.6 billion due to power outages (lower bound estimate). The total annual blackout duration reported by firms is estimated to increase sales losses by 0.29 percentage points for each 100 hours of blackout. When facing frequent electricity outages, a common response strategy is to operate their own back-up generators. While these generators enable firms to bridge power outages, they also require firms to purchase, install, maintain, and operate costly machinery. Unreliable power supply can be estimated to cause firms in the industrial sector to spend about US$ 65 billion per year on back-up self-generation – corresponding to 0.28% of GDP of the 129 sampled countries.

Overall, and building on a harmonized firm-level dataset collected by the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey in 138 mostly small- and middle-income countries accounting for 32% of global GDP, models suggest a robust and significant negative impact of infrastructure disruptions on firm utilization rates of water, electricity and transport infrastructure. For 118 countries, unreliable infrastructure (water, transport and electricity) leads to utilization losses worth US$151 billion real 2018 USD, amounting to 0.59% of sample GDP. Therefore, for as long as infrastructure systems remain disruption-prone, this will have substantial adverse effects on the continuity of production and service delivery, affecting the smooth functioning of supply chains, diminishing aggregate productivity, and restricting the ability of firms to trade and compete internationally.

More importantly, estimations show that for water and transport, indirect effects may be as or even more important than direct impacts. One implication is that estimates looking only at direct impacts of infrastructure disruptions may be missing a large part of the economic cost.

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- b. Household conflict exposure in the North East, the North Central, and the

<!-- Start of picture text --> South South<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Note_ : The figure illustrates that in the North East, 49 percent of households had experienced at least one conflict event between January 2010 and May 2017. In the North Central zone, the figure is 25 percent, and in the South South, 22 percent.

_Source:_ Based on telephone survey conducted in the North East, the North Central, and the South South zones.

x