rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
their responses are proxied than older proxied household members. The profile of primary respondents (generally household heads) further biases annual recall data against women and younger household members, as they will be exposed to larger losses from long recall as a consequence of having their labor contributions more frequently reported by proxy.

This paper contributes to a growing body of work on the effects of recall periods in the survey methodology literature. A considerable body of evidence suggests that longer recall periods tend to undercount household consumption, provision of agricultural inputs, and negative health events

> 3 The Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys follow a similar structure and have a similarly stated preference for self-reporting whenever possible. In a review of six LSMS surveys, Desiere and Costa (2019) find that the use of proxy reporting is still widespread, ranging between 24% in Nigeria up to 85% in Mali.
2. Investments in shipping capacity occur across long cycles. Carriers must carefully anticipate demand to avoid costly overcapacity yet still meet upswings. Therefore, capacity-to-demand adjustments are imperfect. The 2021-22 combination of booming demand and congestion-induced capacity losses was unforeseeable and sparked a surge in orders for new (large) container vessels to be delivered in 202324 amid slowing demand.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 10. Coevolution of Global Stress (MTEU) and Figure 11: Shanghai Freight Index and Stress<br>Freight Rates (USD/TEU), 2019-2024<br>2 6000 6,000<br>y = 2237.1x + 349.35<br>5000<br>1.5 5,000 R2 = 0.743<br>4000<br>4,000<br>1 3000<br>2000 3,000<br>0.5<br>1000<br>2,000<br>0 0<br>1,000<br>0<br>Global Supply Chain Stress Index (LHS) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5<br>Stress MTEU<br>Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (RHS)<br>Source: The World Bank, Shanghai Shipping Exchange Source: The World Bank, Shanghai Shipping Exchange<br>(https://en.sse.net.cn/). The Shanghai Containerized index (https://en.sse.net.cn/).<br>is a weighted average of Chinese Shipping rates (per TEU)<br>across global destinations.<br>Millions<br>TEU<br>USD/TEU<br>Rate USD<br>2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 12. Baltic Dry Index, 1985-2024 <!-- Start of picture text --> 14
the recruitment of a Resident Advisor to be stationed in-country for an extended period of time who will support survey preparation, implementation and processing. Despite being an arrangement that is envisioned to be rolled out gradually over the period of 2016-2030, we consider this form of intensive engagement to be necessary to ensure that the surveys are implemented in the expected timeframe, as well as to provide long-term capacity building which would ultimately allow the countries to assume more of the technical responsibilities over time.

<mark>The Resident Advisor would work closely with the NSO survey management team to 1) aid in questionnaire design, survey documentation and field staff manuals, 2) provide field staff training, 3) conduct supplementary fieldwork supervision, 4) support data entry, processing and quality control operations, 5) carry out capacity building exercises for the NSO survey management team, and 6) represent the World Bank in in-country meetings as necessary. The primary deliverable tied to the Resident Advisor’s work program would be the cleaned, anonymized unit-record household survey data, ready for public dissemination and with the accompanying survey basic information document, finalized questionnaires, and field staff manuals.</mark> Complementing the Resident Advisor, World Bank staff members (whether placed in the country, region or Washington, D.C.) are envisioned to work on the survey work program on a part-time basis, fulfilling a supervisory role and providing remote support as well as hands-on technical assistance through extended missions on all facets of survey preparation and implementation, including donor coordination, survey design, questionnaire design, fieldwork organization, piloting, household listing, field staff training, establishment of a data quality control system, fieldwork supervision, and data analysis. Following the completion of the fieldwork, this staff member would also provide analytical support to the NSO team working on the survey report and be responsible for quality assurance over the product.

Two specific aspects of a work program that typically need support in a data-deprived setting are sampling design and development of a data entry and processing platform
derived from a combination of official employment statistics and the informal sector surveys conducted as part of this study. The informal sector surveys suggests that for every informal who reports to the _duureg/soum_ that they are employed, there are 2 to 6 informals who report that they are not employed?<sup>5</sup> Specifically, for the taxicabs, kiosks, and general informals, there were 2, 3, and 6 unaccounted informals for each accounted informal?<sup>6</sup> Under various scenarios of the relative proportions of similar informals, it is estimated that the true number of informals counted as not-employed was between 3 and 4.6 per informal counted as employed.<sup>2 7</sup> 28. Mongolians who respond that they are employed during the Annual Labor Force Census are further required to specify the legal form of organization for which they work. At the end of 1996, there were 17,706 working age residents of Ulaanbaatar who said they worked for sole-proprietorships. These can be considered the proportion of informals who report to the _duureg/soum_ that they _are_ employed?<sup>8</sup> Weighting by the ratio of not-employed informals to employed informals, yields an estimate of 70,000 to 100,000 people in Ulaanbaatar engaged in the informal sector as their primary means of earning a living.<sup>2 9</sup> 29. The informal sector surveys conducted as part of this study further present estimates of the number of moonlighters and pensioners as a percentage of other informals. Using the same procedure outlined above, it is estimated that an additional 15-21,000 people engage in informal activity as a supplemental means of income, and a further 13-14,000 pensioners engage in informal activity in Ulaanbaatar. All told, then, between 105,000 and 130,000 people in Ulaanbaatar engage in informal activities?<sup>0</sup> To put these numbers in perspective, the inclusive estimate is roughly
, _Atmajaa_ was a fictional drama centered on the issue of sex selection that aired in India in 2004. An audience impact study of the show suggested that while young women were receptive to the message of the show, older women felt negatively stereotyped, married women felt their decision-making process was not clearly depicted, and men felt poorly represented. Episodes following the impact study tried to address these issues, however, no evaluation was conducted for these later episodes (Naqvi 2006).

The media can also be effectively used to disseminate technical reports that can spur public awareness of the consequences of sex selection. Reports on census results, cross-country and overtime sex ratio comparisons, the local impact of excess males and bride scarcity, the resulting trafficking of women etc. can be circulated. Vietnam is an example of a country where observable sex imbalances in statistical surveys were immediately conveyed by the media to the public. As a result, sex selection soon became a national issue (Guilmoto 2012a).

Efforts to strategically draw international attention to growing social problems in a country and lackluster government responses to those problems can also be effective. For example, the resolution of the Council of Europe (2014; 2011) seems to have been successful in shaming South Caucasus countries about the unfettered rise in sex selection, and in pressuring these countries to strengthen policies (including banning prenatal sex selection) to counter it (ibid).

Aside from the resolution of the Council of Europe however, there have been limited awareness building efforts on the issue of sex selection and son preference in the South Caucasus countries. In Armenia, a six-episode TV series that drew attention to the concerns and achievements of 38
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- Roos, H., Ank, M., & Albert, M. (2022). Online democratic participation during COVID-19: Assessing implications for inclusivity of citizen engagement. _Information Polity_ , 28(4):1-16.

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economics can overcome these limitations by drawing robust measures of demand for accountability that corroborate the subjective, attitudinal, and aspirational data from surveys. In Part III, the results from lab-type, controlled field experiments conducted with parents and teachers, are combined with survey data to investigate how parents‟ demand for accountability relate to their observable characteristics, such as education, income, occupation; existing school-level institutions for participatory accountability; parents‟ information about such institutions; and parents‟ actual involvement in the school.

# **_1.c.1 Significant variations in performance and resources across Albania’s school_** _s_

16. Starting with school performance, the survey results show that schools in urban locations appear to outperform schools in rural locations in students‟ achievement in their final exams. The data discussed in this section are presented in Tables 1-7 of Part II. Overall, the proportion of students who do extremely well in math was generally low and especially low in rural areas, where only 6 percent of the students who took the 2009 leaving examination earned a 9 or a 10. The dropout rate was significantly higher in rural locations. Conversely, schools in urban areas showed higher repetition rates (although the difference is not statistically significant).

17. Differences in student and school performance could reflect the wide disparities in physical and human resources found in the survey. Almost all schools in the sample reported problems of poor facilities and infrastructure. On average, as reported in the survey, 95 percent of the classrooms in the surveyed schools could not be used in poor weather conditions, and schools suffered power shortages for about four days in a typical month. Schools in rural locations were significantly smaller, more likely not to have a phone, to experience power shortages, and not to have a library. As for human resources, the student-teacher ratio was higher in urban locations, although more variation was found in rural schools, where there were up to 62 students per teacher. Teachers in urban schools had achieved higher levels of education
**Figure 1. Two-stage stratification sampling**

<!-- Start of picture text --> N = 561,624<br>n* = 1,277<br>Second-stage<br>21 large states First-stage<br>stratification by Random draws<br>with high-quality stratification by<br>state-level without Sample<br>expenditure administrative<br>household replacement<br>information category<br>expenditure<br><!-- End of picture text --> In the first stage we relied on a disproportionate sampling strategy. The 561,624 administrative units comprise 3,852 statutory urban places, 4,645 places that are urban in terms of the census, and 553,127 villages. If a proportionate sampling strategy had been adopted, the share of statutory and census urban places in the sample would have been a mere 2 percent. But villages are likely to have rural characteristics despite the limitations of administrative definitions, while misclassification is more likely for statutory and census urban places. It therefore made sense to overrepresent these two groups.

For each administrative category stratum, we chose a sample size sufficiently large to ensure the accuracy of subsequent analyses. There is a well-known trade-off in this respect. A small sample could fail to generate enough information, whereas a large sample would be costly to implement. Building on the survey design literature, we rely on the Central Limit Theorem to determine the sample size of each stratum (appendix 1).

In the second stage, we divided each of the seven strata into three substrata defined by average consumption per capita at the state level. Consumption data were from the household consumer expenditure module of the 68<sup>th</sup> round of National Sample Survey of India (NSSO 2012). Monthly household expenditure was divided by household size to estimate consumption per capita. To account for the spatial variation in prices, the result was deflated by a year-specific price index that differs across states and between rural and
schooling gradient.<sup>3</sup> Figure 1 shows, however, that the gradient in enrollment and attendance has essentially disappeared among scholarship recipients. This is consistent with larger program effects among girls with the lowest SES, a point we examine more carefully below.

# **3. Empirical strategy**

The empirical strategy in this paper is based on comparisons between scholarship recipients (the “treatment” group) and non-recipients (the “control” group). The analysis begins with OLS regressions of a dummy variable that takes on the value of one if girl i is enrolled in school at the time of the followup survey (in the enrollment regressions) or attending school (in the attendance regressions), Yit, on a set

> 2 Comparisons for the full sample of girls, not just those with completed applications, also suggest that scholarship recipients were more likely to be enrolled and attending school: In the full sample, the difference in the probability of enrollment at a JFPR school is 22.1 percentage points; the difference in the probability of attending is 21.9 percentage; and the difference in the probability of enrollment at any school, not just a JFPR school, is 12.1 percentage points.  All these differences are significant at the 1 percent level or better.

> 3 The exact list of socioeconomic variables in the DHS is not identical to that on the JFPR application form.  We derive the index of socioeconomic status in the DHS from variables describing: the ownership of a bicycle, cart, boat, motorbike, car, truck, radio, television; the conditions of the dwelling such as hard roofing and finished flooring; the availability of electric lighting; the main source of drinking water; the type of toilet facilities; and the main type of cooking fuel used.

6
# 3. Impact of Shocks on Household Welfare

## 3.1. Methodology

### 3.1.1 Data

We estimate the impact of shocks on household welfare using the latest round of the NBHS collected in 2014/15. It contains information on expenditure and consumption, welfare, poverty status, assets, and demographics of Sudanese Households. A representative sample of 13,800 households was drawn from all 18 States of Sudan, of which 11,953 households were surveyed during three rounds of data collection with a response rate of 87 percent (Central Bureau of Statistics 2017).

### 3.1.2 Estimation Strategy

Our empirical strategy is conceptually based on the permanent income and full insurance models of consumption dynamics (Morduch 1995). These models argue that with access to insurance, credit, and/or liquid assets, prevalence of shocks (which hitherto will affect household income) will have a low or no correlation with household consumption (Bardhan and Udry 1999). In the absence of these mechanisms or where they are incomplete, households resort to various coping strategies (ex-ante and/or ex post) to manage and mitigate the impact of shocks and ensure consumption smoothing. Therefore, the effectiveness of these strategies can be examined through the extent to which exposure to shocks results in fluctuations in household consumption.

Since we have one round of data, we rely on the cross-sectional variation in indicators of household welfare to understand the effect of idiosyncratic and covariate shocks on Sudanese households. In our analysis, idiosyncratic shocks are self-reported by household heads and include exposure to floods/droughts, loss of crops/livestock, illness, death of a household member, robbery/assault, and damage to household dwelling. We combine these data with those on rainfall (deviation from the longrun average), price (deviation of the predicted from the actual price level), and incidence of conflict/crime as proxies for covariate shocks. Using this approach, various indicators of household welfare such as consumption,
# **1. INTRODUCTION**

In the early i990s, Zambia initiated an ambitious program of liberalization that significantly opened the economy, shifting from a highly regulated and centralized to a more market-based and liberal economic paradigm. While these changes have profoundly affected the economic environment for the agricultural sector, they have up to now failed to alter the structure of production and help realize the efficiency gains that were expected to be associated with economic liberalization. The rural economy continues to be highly dependent on maize, producers' participation in markets for input as well as output has hardly increased, credit remains out of the reach of the ordinary producer, and no appreciable change in investment can be discerned.

This paper examines whether this disappointing performance is due to the fact that reforms undermined the profitability of agricultural production or due to other factors, such as market imperfections and structural limitations at the household level. This is important for policy advice because, depending on which of these two possibilities is correct, different forms of policy intervention would be appropriate - either price measures to improve the profitability of farming or non-price policies aiming facilitating increased private sector involvement combined with better provision of public goods.

We analyze this issue using data from a two-year panel of about 5000 rural households. Panel data econometric methods allow us to overcome the biases inherent in cross sectional analysis and, from estimation of a production function plus associated demand equation for land, fertilizer,
.5|9.7|10.2|
|**Imports**|2,253.3|4.1|5.6|4.8|4.2|4.6|
|**GDP at marketprices**|1,847.7|6.0|7.4|6.7|6.1|6.5|
|**GDP at factor cost**|1,638.7|6.2|7.6|6.9|6.3|6.7|
|**Total factor employment (index)**|100.0|3.9|4.9|4.2|4.0|4.1|
|**Total factorproductivity (index)**|100.0|2.2|2.6|2.7|2.4|2.6|
|**GNI**|1,686.0|5.9|7.0|6.7|6.1|6.5|
|**GNDI**|2,807.3|4.2|5.1|4.9|4.4|4.7|
|**GNI per capita (2009 US$)**|423.4|3.6|4.6|4.4|3.7|4.1|
|**GNDI per capita (2009 US$)**|704.9|1.9|2.8|2.6|2.1|2.4|
|**Real exchange rate(index)**|100.0|0.4|0.0|0.4|0.4|0.5|
|**Unemployment rate (%)**|12.8|8.0|6
Policy Research Working Paper 11014

# **Abstract**

This paper examines the impact of livelihood diversification on food insecurity amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis uses household panel data from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria in which the first round was collected immediately prior to the pandemic and extends through multiple rounds of monthly data collection during the pandemic. Using this pre- and post-outbreak data, and guided by a pre-analysis plan, the paper estimates the causal effect of livelihood diversification on food insecurity. The results do not support the hypothesis that livelihood diversification boosts household resilience. Although income diversification may serve as an effective coping mechanism for small-scale shocks, the findings show that for a disaster on the scale of the pandemic, this strategy is not effective. Policy makers looking to prepare for the increased occurrence of large-scale disasters will need to grapple with the fact that coping strategies that gave people hope in the past may fail them as they try to cope with the future.

This paper is a product of the Development Data Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at jdmichler@email.arizona.edu or tkilic@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they
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