rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
Policy Research Working Paper 7564

# **Abstract**

This paper examines the effects of market integration on household consumption using data on seven food and two energy markets across South Sudan. The analysis reveals that markets in South Sudan are highly segmented. Price differences for narrowly defined products, across cities exceed in some cases 100 percent. In addition, price volatility increased substantially following the imposition of the trade restrictions with Sudan. This increase tends to hurt disproportionately the poor, who cannot smooth purchasing decisions over time because of liquidity constraints. Transportation costs explain almost half of the variation in food prices across space, and improving the quality of roads has a large potential to reduce prices in the most expensive towns. On the basis of this price effect, the simulations suggest that bringing all road quality across states to that of primary roads can yield a reduction in poverty from the rate of 51.7 percent in 2009 to between 42.8 and 46.9 percent. These estimates have to be interpreted as conservative, as they do not take into account the second-order effects of road construction from increased trade that will result from better road connectivity.

This paper is a product of the Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at gvarela@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for
had recovered almost completely. Women’s employment grew by more percentage points than men’s over the five-year period from 1997 to 2002.

Evidence suggests that both labor market entry (added workers) and exit (discouraged workers) during crises might operate simultaneously, affecting different groups of women differently. Bhalotra and Umana (2009) find considerable heterogeneity in women’s labor market response by education. Specifically, women with more education often behave pro-cyclically; i.e., they reduce labor market participation during economic downturns. This coincides with the findings of Humphrey (1996) in an analysis of women’s labor market participation during Brazil’s debt crisis of the 1980s. No aggregate added worker effect was detected in the Brazil data due to the simultaneous occurrence of both added and discouraged worker effects, as poor women joined the labor force and non-poor women exited. The two effects canceled each other out.

In summary, increasing labor force participation and exiting the labor force do not necessarily represent competing hypotheses, since they do not apply to the same sections of the population. In particular, entry into the labor force (added worker effect) appears to be strongest for low-income households, among women with low education, and among older women, while the discouraged worker effect appears to be strongest for the more educated, younger women in the labor force.

Evidence on the impacts of the 2007-2009 financial crisis on women and families is yet not available. We can expect that some women in developing countries will be “protected” from the short-term impacts of this financial downturn because they do not have access to global markets (and are solely involved in subsistence or home 11
assessments are needed to facilitate debates between governments and operators on the specific levels of risks associated with any project and on their distribution. This debate has already started in Argentina, Brazil, Kenya, Mali, Mexico or Uganda where electricity, ports or water operators and regulators or governments are arguing about quantitative estimates of the rate of return required by operators to match the demands of their equity and bond holders.

This paper’s main goal is to provide a quantitative baseline of the risks perceived between 1998 and 2002 by private providers for a range of infrastructure services in a range of developing countries based on a sample of 120 companies. We do so by calculating the hurdle rates for each one of these operations (that is, the risk-adjusted cost of capital faced by the operators). The data available do not allow the assessment of the financial viability of these operations but allow a comparison of the returns on equity with the cost of equity for the same sample. This comparison is used to highlight the origin of the concerns of private investors.

The paper is organized as follows. In section 2, we present the methodology and the data. Section 3 presents the estimates of the cost of capital. Section 4 compares the cost of equity to the return on equity to get a sense of the returns that are consistent with the risks perceived by investors in infrastructure. Section 5 presents the results on the cost of capital, and section 6 on the comparison between the cost of equity and the return on equity. Section 7 privides some insights on the volatility of returns and costs. Section 8 reviews the evolution of the indicators over time. Section 9 concludes.

# **2. The Sample of Companies**

We focused on companies active in four infrastructure sectors: energy, water, ports and railways. We only used publicly available information on the Web. Indeed, various commercial databases and a Web search provided us with the balance sheets, financial statements and related information for 120 companies. The information was checked whenever
Table A2. Robust standard errors are clustered at the country-pair level. Fixed effects for exporter-year and importer-year are applied. CB refers to the cross-border transfer of data, whereas DR refers to the domestic data processing. Both ECIPE CB and ECIPE DR variables are taken for the importer’s side and are interacted with intl as part of the C ∗intlo term. The WEF NRI variable is taken for the exporter’s side and interacted with intl. Coefficient results for the control vectors of GRAV and C can be found in Annex Table A6.

The regressions were also replicated by including the OECD Digital STRI instead. However, one major difficulty with this index is the relatively limited number of years. The OECD Digital STRI start in 2014 and given that the trade data ends in 2015, it would only allow to analyse two years. Nonetheless, the analysis only discusses the results without reporting them. The results show that all coefficient outcomes stay in line with the ones reported in Table 6, which therefore doesn’t alter the main conclusion of the cross-section analysis.

# **5.3 Using Alternative Data Source**

A final robustness check using the trade in services data from the ITPD-E is performed. This data source has recently been developed (see Borchert _et al_ ., 2020) and covers a large set of developing countries. Given that the sample of data models does not include many developing countries, using this source is interesting to check whether results are consistent. However, one disadvantage with this database is that it is not balanced, and many observations are missing for services, particularly for the sectors of interest. The data reported is administrative data which in the case of TiVA may not always be the case. It also includes internal trade, which is convenient for the gravity model. Another downside however is that this database groups all digital services sectors together, as shown in Annex Table A3. The years covered for the panel analysis is 2005-2016.

The results using the ITPD-E data with respect to
trade relations with countries that will eventually be affected, especially if Peru’s consolidated tariff level in the WTO of 30%, is surpassed.

If safeguards are applied, they will be in force for three years extendable to three more. This timeframe is shorter than the eight-year period allowed by GATT rules. In summary, the decision to apply safeguards has much more political room for maneuvering than decisions about antidumping.

# _4. Other Aspects of Peru’s Experience_

<u>Information Available.- Sources from the investigating authority and from the users of</u> the mechanisms coincide that one of the hindrances to the agility of dumping investigations is the lack of availability of complete statistical data. While Customs statistics are available, information concerning production statistics is less accurate and in some cases the data available in ministries of production is incomplete, outdated and unreliable. Data verification consumes valuable time and effort by the Commission, which often must decide on the basis of the best information available.

<u>Application Costs.-</u> The use of advisors is not a formal requirement to submit an application for a dumping or safeguards investigation. In practice, companies tend to commission the preparation of their cases to law firms or economists specialized in this field, not only to submit the file but also to closely track its evolution. It is estimated that on average, these specialists charge a fee that ranges from US$ 10,000 to 15,000 per case.

However, there are also companies that do not resort to external services to support their cases. In 1999, a small company managed to get provisional duties applied, and later definitive ones of 120% and 734% for dumping caused by imports of “bodyboards” for surfing and recreation, “kickboards” for swimming pools and fins from the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan. The company was able to support every point on its application, even opposing China’s claim to be treated as a free market economy.
, 2000–10 Brazil, 2001–09 Chile, 2000–09 Colombia, 2002–10 Costa Rica, 2000–08 Ecuador, 2003–10 Honduras, 1999–2009 Panama, 2001–09 Paraguay, 1999–10 Peru, 2004–10 Thailand, 2000–09 Moldova, 2001–10 Romania, 2001–09<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**_Source:_** Authors’ calculations with data from SEDLAC, RIGA, and National Household Surveys. **_Notes:_** “Labor income” refers to the change in employment and earnings per adult; “nonlabor income” refers to transfers, pensions, capital, and other income not from labor. Consumption-based measures of poverty are used in the case of Bangladesh, Ghana, Nepal, Peru, Thailand, Moldova, and Romania. Income-based measures of poverty are used in the case of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Panama, and Paraguay.

24
squared PCM term was not statistically significant (see column 2). This result suggests that, on average, higher degrees of competition are continuously expected to increase labor productivity growth, and there are no industries that may present ‘too much competition’.

> 48 Import penetration data were taken from the Confederacao Nacional da Industria website (available at http://www6.sistemaindustria.org.br/gpc/externo/estatisticaAcessoSistemaExterno.faces).

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# **1. Introduction**

Irrespective of how one perceives the pros and cons of water sector reform, it is widely agreed that empirical evidence on household demand can generate critical inputs into water sector reform, including but not limited to the design of pro‐poor contracts with public or private operators to deliver safe and reliable water to the public.

Because there is often no other pre‐existing data on consumer demand for service quality improvements, the policy community usually relies on stated preference surveys (also called willingness‐to‐pay [WTP] surveys) to understand and estimate consumer demand. One potential problem from such surveys is that demand can be over‐estimated because of the hypothetical nature of the survey. Such an error can trigger a spiral of activities leading to a negative impact on public and private investments in the water sector – i.e., lower than expected demand hurts the financial viability of water utilities, which results in insufficient revenues, which causes inadequate maintenance and poor service, which further lowers demand for service, and so on. We will argue that such over‐estimates arise because of misinterpretation of concepts ( _e.g._ , WTP) and incomplete and inappropriate use of the data from such surveys.

We present a case‐study from Sri Lanka, where we surveyed approximately 1,800 households in 2003, to clarify concepts and offer an operational interpretation the use of WTP surveys to estimate coverage of piped water connections _ex ante_ . In the early 2000s, the Government of Sri Lanka decided to engage private sector operators to manage water and sewerage services in two separate service areas: one in the town of Negombo, and one stretching along the coastal strip from the town of Kalutara to Galle. Since then, the government has abandoned the idea of setting up a public‐private partnership in these two areas. This paper is part of a series of investigations to determine how pilot private sector transactions (forming part of the overall water sector reform strategy) could be
, less tied to internal cash flow, and less affected by the debt-tocapital ratio.

From the above it is clear that there can be distributional consequences to programs of financial liberalization, and whether they relax financing constraints for different categories of firms is ultimately an empirical question. This paper aims to address this question, We contribute to the literature by using panel data for a large number of firms in 13 developing countries to analyze the effects of financial liberalization on firm investment and financing constraints, rather than focusing on one single country.

**2** See Gertler and Rose (1994).

3
whether climate-induced rural-urban movements lead to pressures on urban labor markets of destination cities, and whether/how that in turn leads to international movements. Apart from the more accurate and detailed information on urban market dynamics available in labor surveys, this integration would also provide adequate temporal data coverage for sequential analysis, which is currently difficult to achieve when only using longitudinal household surveys that often consist of a limited number of waves. To facilitate this integration, efforts should be made to improve the accessibility of data sources, fostering data interoperability by design, establishing total quality frameworks for data integration, and maintaining ethical standards and data confidentiality (United Nations Statistical Commission, 2021). To study the potential outcome of cross-border movements, integration with non-traditional data such as remote sensing, mobile phone traces, social media, and other types of big data is also desirable, given the intrinsic difficulty in capturing international migration in national household surveys. This should be combined with improvements in panel tracking protocols within and across borders for individuals and whole households. This can include using mobile phones to track migrants, relying on CATI/CAWI for data collection to assess ultimate impacts on welfare, and so on.

Based on the above, we identify the following key areas where the return on household surveys for filling climate migration data gaps appears to be higher in the short- and medium-run:

- a. Improving the design of existing survey tools including modifications to questionnaires, updates of tracking protocols, and adoption of mixed data collection modes (e.g., the use of CATI/CAWI in combination with face-to-face interviews).

- b. Exploring and enhancing integration and interoperability with non-conventional data sources (e.g., mobile phone traces, social media, and other types of big data) and other traditional data sources (e.g., census data, administrative records and registries, labor mobility data).

- c. Broadening the perspective for some key research questions to make better use of existing household survey data and provide complementary solutions
live births)|67|74|78|79|80|81|43|81|
|Under-5 mortalityrate(per 1,000 live births)|104|116|124|125|127|128|57|130|
|**_Memorandum item_**|||||||||
|Population(millions)|2.4|3.0|3.5|3.6|3.6|3.7|-|-|

_Source:_ World Development Indicators. Note: a = data from 2008 or 2009, b = data from 1991, c = data from 2001.

Unemployment has been a long-standing problem in Congo with particularly high unemployment rates during the years of the conflict (Figure 3). The situation improved after the end of the conflict, although unemployment levels remained higher than in the 1970s and 1980s, especially in urban areas. Unemployment rates in 2005 and 2009 were estimated at 19.4 percent and 16.1 percent (for urban areas), respectively. Based on the 2005 household survey, the urban unemployment rate reached 32.6 3
0.000|0.579***|
|Son or daugther|0.355|0.479|0.089|0.285|0.266***|
|Brother or sister|0.029|0.168|0.006|0.077|0.023***|
|Other relations|0.037|0.188|0.004|0.067|0.032***|
|Observations|1,351||789|||

*** p _<_ 0.01, ** p _<_ 0.05, * p _<_ 0.1

_Notes_ : Column 5 is t-test for whether the difference in means between the two groups is statistically significant.

Table A.4: Time variation in diplomatic representation

|Year|Percent of destination countries<br>with diplomatic representation in Egypt|
|---|---|
|1955|0.870|
|1960|0.760|
|1965|0.759|
|1970|0.862|
|1975|0.857|
|1980|0.457|
|1985|0.543|
|1990|0.865|
|1995|0.944|
|2000|0.944|
|2005|0.972|

_Notes_ : This table presents the share of countries with diplomatic representation in Egypt by year. Information on diplomatic representation from the Correlates of War Diplomatic exchange data set is available every five years between 1950 and 2005. We restrict the analysis to the full sample of all destination countries.

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and Household Decision-Making:

- A Bargaining Analysis.” _International Economic Review_ 21 (1): 31–44. https://doi.org/10.2307/2526238.

- Mele, Marie. 2009. “The Time Course of Repeat Intimate Partner Violence.” _Journal of Family Violence_ 24 (8): 619–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10896-009-9260-5.

- Ministry of Health (Ministério da Saúde, Brazil). 2016. _Viva: Instrutivo Notificação de Violência Interpessoal e Autoprovocada_ , 2nd ed. Brasília: Departamento de Vigilância de Doenças e Agravos Não Transmissíveis e Promoção da Saúde, Ministério da Saúde. http://bvsms.saude.gov.br/bvs/publicacoes/viva_instrutivo_violencia_interpessoa l_autoprovocada_2ed.pdf.

Munyo, Ignacio, and Martín Antonio Rossi. 2015. “The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence in Uruguay.” IDB 23
guish agricultural workers in parts of our analysis. Employed individuals are considered to be high-skilled workers if at the time of the survey they worked in any of the following occupation types: professional, clerical, skilled manual labor, sales, services, or agriculture (employee). Individuals were considered to be low-skilled workers if they worked in any of the following occupation types: domestic, unskilled manual labor, or agriculture (self-employed). Among the respondents in our data, 69.03 percent reported being employed, and 30.97 percent reported that they were not employed. Among skilled workers who in our data, the occupations were in the following categories: sales (38 percent); manual labor (18 percent) agricultural employee (16 percent); service-sector (12 percent); professional, technical or managerial occupations (12 percent); clerical occupations (2 percent). Among unskilled workers, 80 percent reported being self-employed in agriculture, and the remaining 20 percent were in either in domestic work or as unskilled manual laborers. Among respondents, 63 percent resided in rural areas, and 39 percent resided in urban areas. The ages of survey respondents were as follows: 25 or younger (39 percent), 25 to 50 (57 percent), over 50 (0.2 percent).

To look at the differential effects of investment in infrastructure across countries at different stages of development, we group the survey data into two categories of development. Using PPP-adjusted GDP per capita, we classify countries as less developed or more developed. A country is less developed if its PPP-adjusted GDP per capita falls below 2017 USD 3,400. In the LSMS, 97.37 percent are categorized as less developed. In the DHS, 64 percent of the countries are categorized as less developed.

# **3.3 Roads**

We combine geo-referenced household survey data with spatial data on road expansions as used by Berg et al. (2018) and Jedwab and Storeygard (2021).<sup>
BURKINA FASO’S INFRASTRUCTURE: A CONTINENTAL PERSPECTIVE The urban-rural service gap has also been reduced. Between the early and late 2000s, the rural-urban gap decreased by 20 percentage points in improved water and about 4 percentage points in sanitation (figure 15). Burkina Faso also adopted important reforms in the rural water and sanitation sector, such as the adoption of a rural water policy, the establishment of a dedicated budget, and the creation of a map of rural water points. At the same time, the country made some initial progress by establishing a rural water fund, introducing a cost-recovery policy, and closing the urban-rural gap.

**Figure 15. Urban and rural use of improved water and improved sanitation**

a. Trend in urban-rural access to improved water and sanitation b. Decrease (increase) in rural-urban gap between early 2000s and late 2000s

|||**1993**|**1999**|**2003**|**2007**|25.0||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Improved water<br>|Rural<br>|38.9<br>|43.3<br>|52.0<br>|69.9<br>|20.0<br>**e**||
|services|Urban|71.1|80.9|93.6|91.8|<br>**ang**||
|Improved|Rural|7.0|6.8|7.4|18.8|<br>15.0<br>**nt ch**||
|sanitation|Urban|46.7|45.1|50.5|58.2|10.0<br>**poi**||
|
As displacement crises are largely unpredictable, all the studies surveyed in this paper are evaluations conducted _ex-post_ . In theory, a few of the crises studied could have been predicted but it would not be possible to allocate individuals to treated and non-treated groups randomly given that, by the definition of forced displacement we provided, people are fleeing violence, persecution or high levels of insecurity or uncertainty. Consequently, none of the papers reviewed is based on a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT). Due to the randomness of the decision to leave (because of conflict, violence, insecurity or major political events) and/or the random allocation of displaced people in the country of destination (by policy or by default), some authors argue that they are in the presence of natural experiments. All authors do, however, address the question of endogeneity and, if one searches for a common thread, these evaluations would be better described as _quasi-natural experiments_ .

The basic model used by the literature is a model of the following form:

# y� �α�βFD� �γFE� �ε�

Where _i_ is the unit of observation, _y_ is one of the four outcomes described, _FD_ is the forced displacement shock and _FE_ are fixed effects. Most papers with few exceptions use standard OLS estimators or some of its variants (Table 2). Two papers use general equilibrium models (Bodvarsson,Van den Berg, and Lewer 2008; Hercowitz and Yashiv 2002) and two papers simply compare means between treated and non-treated groups resulting in simple difference estimations (Card, 1990 and Alix-Garcia and Bartlett, 2015).

# [Table 2]

The unit of observation varies depending on the data at hand. Most studies rely on household survey data where individuals or households are the unit of observations and most studies include some regional dimension (more frequently administrative areas). Where longitudinal or panel data are available time is also included. Other choices for unit of observations include skills or education level, various types of population groups (based