rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
level; the number of schools randomly selected to participate in the survey in each district depended on the number of pupils attending primary school in that district.<sup>16</sup> For each school, three and seven students were randomly selected from grades three and six respectively. One teacher of the third graders and four teachers of the seventh graders were randomly selected to participate in the survey together with the parents of the selected pupils. Therefore, in each school we collected data from ten parents and five teachers, leading to total sample sizes of 1,800 parents and 900 teachers.<sup>17</sup> Besides demographics, we collected information about parents‟ involvement in the school accountability system, i.e. whether they participated in the latest elections of parent class representatives. We also elicited data on the degree to which each parent was informed about the existence of local accountability institutions, and their involvement in other aspects of their children‟s education, such as the number of meetings with the head teacher in the previous semester and how often they helped their children with homework. In designing the School Stakeholder Survey, we purposely replicated some relevant LSMS questions concerning education and social capital, with the aim to be able to check the extent to which our sample of parents is representative of the Albanian adult population. With respect to social capital, we collected information about: 1) membership in voluntary organizations; 2) participation in any community activity in the past year; 3) number of relatives and close friends among the surveyed parents (a measure of social ties in the community); 4) beliefs about community members‟ willingness to cooperate with each other in case of a water shortage; 5) a measure of generalized trust. As part of the survey, all parents and teachers were also involved in three behavioral games. In this paper we focus only on parents‟ behavior in a dichotomous public goods game.<sup>18</sup> After the games,
Policy Research Working Paper 10959

# **Abstract**

This paper analyzes fiscal policy cyclicality, with a specific focus on the Middle East and North Africa region, which is known for its significant output volatility. The paper provides new and more granular evidence on the direction, intensity, and specific fiscal sources of cyclicality. Based on annual data covering 184 countries from 2000 to 2022, the findings suggest that there are important differences in the assessment of countercyclical fiscal policy achievements among different fiscal policy variables, across world regions, and also within the Middle East and North Africa region. While the global associations between fiscal cyclicality and income levels have remained relatively stable, countries in the Middle East and North Africa have exhibited diverse performances, some transitioning toward countercyclicality and others moving away from it. The paper also identifies several countries in the Middle East and North Africa that have successfully shifted from procyclical to countercyclical fiscal policy, breaking free from the “fiscal pro-cyclicality trap.” To understand more specific fiscal sources of cyclicality, the paper examines subcomponents of revenues and expenditure. It shows that nontax revenues exhibit a greater degree of procyclicality than tax revenues, and subsidy expenditures tend to be less countercyclical than other fiscal expenditures. This has policy implications and adds a dimension of assessment to subsidies that is not addressed in the literature: subsidies, being less countercyclical than other expenditures in the Middle East and North Africa, do not contribute to macroeconomic stability and longterm growth through this channel, independent of their adverse efficiency, distributional, and fiscal space effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings, aimed at improving countercyclicality in fiscal policy.

This paper is a product of the Prosperity Practice Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at zbogetic@
external commercial and multilateral (IMF) sources in the same proportion – 50 percent each. The financing terms are the same assumed in each country’s latest DSA.

For 3 of the 24 countries – Republic of Congo, Mauritania and Sudan – the exercise results in an improvement of their external debt burden indicators. This occurs because we apply the same new growth rates to the exports projected for 2015 and onwards to all countries, thus ignoring other developments considered in the DSA that affect the country’s exports during the projection period, such as a depletion of natural resources.<sup>16</sup> For this reason in the discussion below we refer only to the remaining 21 countries. The results are shown in Annex Table 6, which presents summary measures for the deviations vis-à-vis the corresponding thresholds of the relevant debt burden indicators, both in the baseline and new scenario. The table also shows summary statistics for the deterioration of the debt burden indicators vis-à-vis the baseline after the exports growth shock. All measures, unless indicated, are in percentage points.

In the majority of cases (13 out of 21),<sup>17</sup> the shock appears to be mild. The two debt burden indicators are negatively affected, however not to an extent large enough to cause a breach of the thresholds in the projection horizon. For these countries the slowdown in exports growth does not appear to be a major cause of concern in regard to their debt sustainability.

For 4 countries – Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Sao Tome & Principe and Zimbabwe – the effect of the export shock, whether large or small, does not change their overall risk assessment because the debt burden indicators already showed breaches in the baseline scenario. In all these cases except Guinea-Bissau the effect of the shock appears to be large, leading to larger and more protracted breaches. In the case of Guinea-Bissau the shock mildly affects the debt-to-exports ratio and the effect on the debt service-to-exports ratio is negligible.

Finally, for 4 countries – Cameroon
Actual 2020 employments levels come from National Statistical Offices. The exact data of actual 2020 employment data is shown in Table A1 in the Appendix.

> 7 Bulgaria, Mexico, the Philippines, Romania, and <mark>Türkiye</mark> are excluded from this sixth method due to lack of data on labor informality.

> 8 The date of the observed 2020 employment level differs between countries depending on the information available in National Statistical Offices. Table A1 in the Appendix contains information on the exact date considered in each country.

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do, STEM related work, Own account worker, Quintile 2, and Remittances from family within the country, Knowing someone in the community that has your dream job, and Urban area. Results for these variables were either not statistically significant or not discussed in the analysis. Full results are available under request.

# **5.2. Limitations of this study**

There are several limitations to our study. Firstly, aspirations are subjective measures and may be subject to bias. Individuals may have limited capacity to predict how their aspirations might change in response to success or failure. The process of revising aspirations can be slow, especially when social expectations and norms impede the flow of information and the revision of expectations (Favara, 2017). Furthermore, as discussed, measurement issues can pose challenges in comprehending youth aspirations, potentially affecting the quality of the collected data and subsequent policy recommendations. Different sets of questions and tools may yield different results. Lastly, we must acknowledge that youth aspirations are subject to change over time. This means that cross-sectional data cannot establish cause-and-effect relationships. Aspirations are endogenous, meaning they evolve as youths either achieve or fail to attain their goals, leading to the setting of new objectives.

# **6. Policy implications and conclusions**

This paper investigates the factors that influence the educational, career, and migration aspirations of young individuals in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Malawi. We have used data from dedicated surveys designed to capture youth aspirations, along with information on their educational and employment backgrounds. Drawing from our findings, we present policy recommendations aimed at aligning youth’s educational and career aspirations with concrete strategies to mitigate youth unemployment and underemployment.

**Firs of all, we find that aspirations are context dependent** . Our study highlights that both career and academic aspirations are significantly shaped by interactions within the social environment, and the constraints and opportunities within the family context. Additionally, cultural values and social expectations play a crucial role in influencing youth’s aspirations
era Post Suharto era Suharto era Post Suharto era<br>.4 .2<br>.1<br>.2<br>0<br>PC family PC family<br>β 0 β -.1<br>-.2 -.2<br>.2 5<br>0<br>PC family-.2 PC family0<br>β β<br>-.4<br>-.6 -5<br>.3 .2<br>.2<br>.1 0<br>PC family0 PC family<br>β β -.2<br>-.1<br>-.2<br>-.4<br>.5 .5<br>PC family0 PC family0<br>β -.5 β -.5<br>-1 -1<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Note:_ The figure depicts annual variation in the estimated impact of the market share of Suharto family firms on the outcome of interest. The dots depict the coefficient estimates ′93 ′94 ′09, estimated using the regression: = ∑ Y αα , αα , ... ... . ααY which are presented in Table jjtt YY C5.2, with 1996 as the omitted year, where ii=1993,..,2009 ii jj ii=1993,..,2009 represent industry characteristics that are allowed to vary over time.ii jjii jj ii jjii αα PC (MMSS) ∗DD(Y = tt) + ∑ γγ SS ∗DD(Y = tt) + ππ + ττ + εε measures the aggregate market share of Suharto family firms (the average of their aggregate market share in 1996 and 1997). jjii jj SS PC (MMSS) is a vector of industry fixed effects, and is a vector of year fixed effects. The vertical bars indicate the
0<br>1979-2018 1979-1988 1989-1998 1999-2008 2009-2018 -1.0<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: NBS; authors’ calculations.

Source: GGDC 10-Sector Database, Timmer et al. (2015); authors’ calculations.

Tracking the standard path of industrialization, labor moved from agriculture to industry. In 1978, 75 percent of the labor force was in agriculture. That share declined to 27 percent in 2018, as the tight controls on rural-urban migration were gradually relaxed and workers relocated to sectors with higher productivity growth (Figure 3). Between 1978 and 2010, the employment shares of manufacturing and construction increased by 6 and 7 percentage points, respectively.

Labor also moved to services, mainly trade, restaurant and hotel and non-market (community, social, and personal) services. By 2010, labor productivity in non-market services was less than a fifth of the economy-wide level, while the employment share had risen by 12 percentage points to 14 percent of the labor force (Figures 4 and 5). In contrast, the employment share of financial, real estate, and business services, where productivity growth is very high, has remained around 1 percent over four decades.

> 8 As in in McMillan and Rodrik (2011) and Timmer et al. (2015), this decomposition uses average rather than marginal labor productivity to compare productivity gaps across sectors. However, the reallocation of labor between two sectors affects output per worker in both sectors, likely reducing average productivity in the new sector. Hence, the gains from reallocation in the above analysis may be overestimated.

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# Summary

This paper reports on the findings from a major international research project investigating the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda. It combines in a novel way the results from several strands of research. Firstly, it draws on an intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement, with particularly close attention paid to potential reforms in agriculture. The scenarios are built up using newly available tariff line data and their implications for world markets are established using a global modeling framework. These world trade impacts, in turn, form the basis for twelve country case studies of the national poverty impacts of these DDA scenarios. The focus countries include: Bangladesh, Brazil (2 studies), Cameroon, China (2 studies), Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, Philippines, Russia, and Zambia. The diversity of approaches taken in these studies allows them to stress local conditions and priorities and illustrates a wide range of facets of the trade-poverty links. It does, however, limit the ability to draw broader conclusions. Thus an additional study which provides a 15 country cross-section analysis is aimed at this objective, and a global analysis provides estimates for the world as a whole.

# A few of the main findings follow:

- The liberalization targets under the DDA have to quite ambitious if the round is to have a measurable impact on world markets and hence poverty.

- Assuming an ambitious DDA, we find the near-term poverty impacts to be mixed; some countries experience small poverty rises and others more substantial poverty declines. On balance, poverty is reduced under this DDA, and this reduction is more pronounced in the longer run.

- Allowing minimal tariff cuts for just a small percentage of special and sensitive products virtually eliminates the global poverty reduction due to the DDA.

- Deeper cuts in developing country tariffs would make the DDA more poverty friendly.

- Key determinants of the national poverty impacts include: the incomplete transmission of world prices to rural households, barriers to the mobility of workers between sectors of the economy, as well as the incidence
which a customer service representative highlighted the lender’s commitment to its customers using a script similar to the relationship offer condition. However, in the relationship placebo condition no forbearance offer is extended and customers are instead simply invited to access informational resources and offered help with navigating different payment methods.

## **3.3.4 Control group: repayment reminder**

Finally, 3,441 contacted customers were assigned to the control group, which was designed to replicate the lender’s standard repayment reminder calls. Customers assigned to this condition received a call from a customer service representative who reminded them that their payment was past due, and asked the customer to commit to a time frame for making the payment as per the lender’s standard practice. This treatment serves as the main control group in our analysis.

# **3.4 Data and Descriptive Statistics**

To measure the impact of debt forbearance on subsequent repayment behavior and borrower outcomes, we combine data from the experiment with administrative data from the lender, as well as the detailed form of credit than most external sources of credit that customers in our sample can access.

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proposed eliminating the bidi tariff system and fixing prices at Tk 15.0 per pack; nonetheless, parliament reduced the price to Tk 12.5.<sup>8</sup> In sum, the current taxation system has neither discouraged consumption nor maximized revenue in Bangladesh. In the last decade, cigarette consumption, particularly the consumption of the cheaper brands, has expanded significantly. Since 2011, the volume in the low segment rose by an average of 26 percent, causing the market share to increase. Currently, the market share of the low segment accounts for nearly 77 percent of total volume, from 51 percent in fiscal year 2010–11; yet, it represents only 40 percent of the total revenue from cigarettes (World Bank 2017).

As the government considers tobacco-tax reform, particularly in the case of cigarettes, one argument that has been raised against the reform is that tobacco taxation is regressive because low-income households assign a larger share of their budgets to tobacco products. This note relies on information from the HIES 2016/2017 to (1) describe recent tobacco consumption patterns among households and (2) shed light on the distributional impacts of an increase in the price of cigarettes.

The study is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the data and some descriptive statistics. Section 3 describes the methodology. Sections 4 and 5 present the estimation results, and section 6 concludes.

# **2. Data**

This paper relies on the HIES 2016/17, a comprehensive, nationally representative survey collected between April 2016 and March 2017. The survey involved interviews among 46,000 households and gathered detailed information about household expenditure patterns, including on various tobacco products. The survey allows households to be categorized into consumption deciles from the poorest to the richest, thus permitting the simulation of the distributional impacts of a potential reform.

Approximately 65 percent of households reported in the HIES 2016/17 that they consumed tobacco products; 42 percent consumed smoked tobacco; and 45 percent consumed smokeless tobacco products.
are able to participate in the school council).

Similar to WDIP and RWSS, the PROHECO evaluation uses a mixed-methods approach, applying institutional and household surveys at the quantitative stage as well as key informant and community interviews during the qualitative stage. The evaluation uses both a treatment and a control group, allowing for a comparison between schools managed by the community school council and those which are part of the traditional state-run system.

In terms of school council empowerment, the evaluation assesses whether the council is able to carry out its devolved functions. Indicators of degrees of empowerment therefore correspond to a council’s capacity to build and maintain the school building, to buy school supplies, to oversee the budget, and to hire and fire teachers. Using the concepts of assets and opportunity structure, a series of factors that influence the council’s capacity to assume its new tasks were determined. Examples of assets that help councils carry out their newly assigned functions include the amount of relevant information and training the councils receive. The opportunity structure for school council empowerment can be divided into (1) formal rules, such as the decrees and regulations that specify the details of the decentralization reform, including the nature of the powers to be devolved to the 22
1 and 3) are in parentheses. Columns 1 and 2 present estimates of a regression of real GDP growth, calculated as a 10-year rolling average, on a linear time trend. Ten-year rolling averages of growth rates are for the current year and the preceding nine years. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.

Although the pace of growth acceleration has differed across sectors, India’s growth pattern has been broadly diversified. The pace of acceleration has been fastest in services, followed by industry, and there has been no evident pattern of acceleration in agriculture. The most remarkable achievement in agriculture has been the greater stability of growth, but not necessarily a higher average growth rate (Figure 2). Consistent with the experience of other countries, the contribution of agriculture and allied activities in GDP growth has declined, while that of the nonagricultural sectors has increased. The exceptionally fast growth of the services sector in India has been accounted for in a large part by modern services, comprising financial services, communications, and the IT sector, as highlighted by Eichengreen and Gupta (2011).

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formal learning is whether the employer is a formal firm, also included in the job stability category. Informal firms employ a predominantly low-skill workforce, have lower access to financing and capital markets and services and are thus less likely to invest in the human capital of their workers (Ohnsorge and Yu 2021). Moreover, learning opportunities at work are not only fulfilling in their own right, but also offer a path to more well-paying jobs and more job opportunities that increase job security (Cazes, Hijzen, and Saint-Martin 2016; Lagakos et al. 2018).

> 16 Missing data for one of the three indicators do not preclude success, which is then based on fulfilling all available indicators.

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code, in the `iciotable(` _table_ _~~n~~ ame_ `)` option. The user-provided ICIO table and the related country list must be provided using two different comma separated files (i.e. files with extension `.csv` ). For example: ``` .icio_load,iciot(user,userp("path_to_the_table_folder")tablen(ADB_2011.csv)// countrylist(adb_countrylist.csv) ``` The syntax above shows that additional information has to be provided in order to instruct `icio` to load the user-provided table: _i_ ) the path to the folder where the `.csv` file containing the user-provided table is located, via the

> 4The ICIO tables directly available in `icio` are automatically downloaded the first time the user requests them through the `icio_load` command. These files are saved within the Stata system folder `"../ado/plus/i"` using a `.mmat` format (notice that the _filename_ begins with the prefix `icio_` ). For further details on the last release directly available through `icio` , run `icio_load, info` or visit the official websites `oe.cd/tiva` for the OECD TiVA database, `wiod.org` for the World Input-Output Database and `worldmrio.com` for the Eora Global Supply Chain Database. Please, also remember to cite the reference to the ICIO database you are analyzing through `icio` .

> 5Multiple years have to be loaded sequentially and then the results should be appended.

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the estimate of Baland et al. (2010), which uses the 1995/1996 survey. Our estimate is also 17% below those for Dolakha District by Kandel et al. (2016). We therefore see our estimate of a 1-percent decrease in fuelwood collections (in tons) as reasonable, but erring on the conservative side, because each 1% reduction implies less wood reduced than in our consumption data and in much of the literature.

Only preservation of non-renewable biomass generates additional carbon savings and as we saw in the previous section, in our sample CFs implement a variety of restrictions to increase sustainability. We cannot know the sustainability implications of each household’s reduction in fuelwood collections or even the average portion of collections that are currently sustainable across our sample. To estimate the percentage of biomass harvests that are currently unsustainable, we use estimates from Bailis et al. (2015) and Drigo et al. (2014), who calculate nonrenewable biomass estimates by country and region within country using the Woodfuel Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping (WISDOM) model. The estimate for Nepal is 52%, which is the estimate we employ in this paper, implying that slightly more than half of fuelwood harvest reductions generate additional carbon savings.

Each ton of unsustainably harvested fuelwood that is not collected would have been burned to generate heat for cooking and perhaps heating. Not all the biomass in fuelwood is carbon and for our analysis we use the IPCC (2013) emissions factor (0.50) to convert fuelwood not burned to carbon not emitted. We then apply the standard factor of 3.67 tons of CO2 per ton of carbon to convert carbon to CO2, which is the metric for international carbon transactions.

In Nepal, only about 4% of households who cook with fuelwood use improved biomass cookstoves (Nepal et al., 2011). Much of the rest use traditional, inefficient stoves, such as the Nepali _chulo_ , which is made of mud and stone, and typically vents waste gases within