rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
, stored, and transported digitally, and therefore do not need to cross physical borders. For details on the recent transformation in service activities see Box 2.

An alternative context for the distinction in services is given in the WTO Agreement on Trade in Services. Under the GATS agreement service exports can be delivered in four different ways:

- Services being provided remotely across borders, such as IT and IT-enabled service exports (mode 1), which account for some 28 percent of global trade in services;

- Consumption abroad such as tourism and travel (mode 2) which account for some 14 percent of global trade in services;

- Commercial presence through foreign direct investments (mode 3) which account for some 57 percent of global trade in services;

- Movement of natural persons which brings in remittances (mode 4) which account for some 1 percent of global trade in services.

Hence, modern services are inclusive to mode 1 and to some extent mode 3, whereas mode 2 and 4 require movement of people to deliver the services. Similar to the case for goods, classification of services on the production side is more difficult. Detailed industry-level data on value-added and employment tends to be limited. However, for a rough approximation we classify 10
. Each LPA applies to a single town, sub-district or governorate and was drafted and signed by prominent tribal and community leaders. Alternatively known as ‘return agreements’ or ‘tribal peace accords,’ the LPAs grapple with one of the most pressing issues for durable peace in Iraq’s post-war context: how to resolve the protracted displacement of families with a perceived affiliation to ISIL. Each agreement attempted to establish or recognize principles and a mechanism to govern the return of IDPs, as well as a commitment to the rule of law, with the expectation that this would mitigate revenge attacks and collective punishment while simultaneously addressing security concerns. While these LPAs have received substantial attention by the international community,<sup>5</sup> there is little analysis regarding the

> 1 O’Neill, W. (2009) _Internal displacement and peacebuilding: Institutional responses_ . Refugee Survey Quarterly, 28(1), pp.151-180.

> 2 For an overview, see: Brookings Institution, Addressing Internal Displacement in Peace Processes, Peace Agreements and Peace-Building, September 2007. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2016/06/2007_peaceprocesses.pdf

> 3 Saunders, H. (2001) Turbulent Peace, Washington DC: US Institute for Peace.

> 4 Although peace agreements still only make up just 18.4 per cent of total terminations. Kreutz, J. (2010). _How and when armed conflicts end: Introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination dataset. Journal of Peace Research_ , 47(2), pp.243-250. 5 The LPAs in this study have been designed, implemented and/or supported in other ways by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), Sanad for Peacebuilding (Sanad), Peace Paradigms Organization (PPO), the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ), The Government of Canada-PSOPs Program, and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

2
error of 3.4) per 1,000 people versus 15.9 (standard error of 0.9) for the non-poor. The birth rate differential is 2.6. However, there is a marked clustering of low birth rates and low poverty rates evident in Figure 3, which on closer inspection turns out to be mainly due to the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA). Excluding EECA the birth rate for the poor is 55.5 (3.1) versus 20.4 (1.0) for the non-poor and the _BRD_ =2.0, which can be considered more representative of low and middle-income developing countries. However, the BR method is clearly giving a higher differential than suggested by the DHS.

Here too the demographic differential implied by the BR method is lower for Africa. Focusing only on the 18 observations for SSA, the birth rate for the poor is 46.9 (standard error of 4.1) versus 31.4 (2.7) for the non-poor, implying _BRD_ =1.2 (the same as from the DHS). As for the death rate differential, the higher poverty rate in SSA is a plausible explanation for the lower birth rate differential, though attenuation bias cannot be ruled out.

# **4. Impacts on poverty measures**

Given the data problems noted in the last section, it would be unwise to insist on a single point estimate of either the _DRD_ or _BRD_ . Values of both the demographic differentials in the range 1.2 to 2 are suggested by the evidence presented above. Since the CDR and CBR are calculated for one year, it is convenient to set τ = 1.<sup>17</sup> The following calculations will focus on 2001, the latest year for the Chen-Ravallion estimates of global poverty, for which the poverty rate in developing countries as a whole is 21.1%.

Starting again with mortality, Table 1 gives the implied impacts
(2011) indicates a decline in the rate of work among younger boys, no impact on the labor participation of older boys, and positive impacts of the program on work among older girls.

Other long term results are more encouraging for CCTs. For instance, Barham, Macours, and Maluccio (2014) look at Nicaragua’s _Red de Proteccion Social_ on educational attainment a decade after the program began. The study exploits the randomized phasing of the program to estimate the differential effect of the access of two treatment groups and considering individuals who had stopped receiving the transfer seven years earlier. It finds that boys who had received a transfer in early childhood (benefitting more intensely from the education transfer) had about 0.3 years more years of completed education, scored 0.2 standard deviations higher, and showed higher earnings from seasonal migration reflected in a 10–30 percent higher monthly off-farm income relative to the late treatment group. To assess the concern that CCTs may discourage work, Banerjee et al. (2015) reanalyze the results of randomized assessments of seven CCTs worldwide to study their effect on labor supply. Their analysis finds no systematic evidence that there is an undesirable effect on the propensity to work nor on the number of hours worked. Moreover, Banerjee et al. (2016) find proof of long-term (and growing) effects of an antipoverty program that includes an asset transfer in West Bengal, India, based on data from three survey waves. Over five years after having stopped receiving benefits, according to the study, households present increased consumption (25 percent), higher food security, more assets, higher earnings, and more financial stability than the control group. Mental and physical health indicators also show an improvement relative to nonbeneficiaries.

A related though different question to that of long-term impact is how efficient CCTs are in comparison with other unconditional programs. While this area has yet to be more profoundly studied, recent empirical research has started to shed some light. Baird et al. (2013)
284|
|R-squared|0.876|0.870|0.876|0.873|0.871|0.871|

Source: OECD ICIO database. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses. _FVAX_ and _DVAR_ lagged. All level variables in natural logarithms.

Table 6 shows that financial markets mediate economic upgrading through GVC integration as a seller in the same way. Once again, both measures are positive and significant (columns 1 and 2), which indicates that this policy area is relevant and independent of the type of GVC integration that a country pursues.

Looking at the results for the role of labor market policy, a very similar picture emerges. The estimates consistently show that, for GVC integration as a buyer, higher unit labor costs can limit economic upgrading through GVCs (table 6, column 3), supporting studies that point to wage differentials as primary drivers of the globalization of production. Labor freedom is equally positive and significant (table 6, 24
upgrading is undertaken and the practice of grading and re-graveling as needed (typically every 1-3 years) to repair damaged road segments is continued. Additionally, three upgraded scenarios are considered.

Scenario 1 represents a Medium Design (MD) , wherein road sections with gradients between 9-15% are resurfaced with a bituminous surface coating (BTC /'chip-seal') and sections with gradients of 15% or higher are concrete cement-paved. Sections with gradients of less than 9% are left graveled. Scenario 1 also constructs lined drains for all segments with 9% gradients or above (all sealed sections).

Scenario 2 represents a High Design (HD) that improves upon the medium design by extending chip seal resurfacing to any sections with gradients exceeding 6% up to 15% and also concrete cement-paving segments with gradients exceeding 15%. Scenario 2 constructs lined drains for all segments with 6% gradients or above (all sealed sections).

Lastly, Scenario 3 takes a different approach by sealing roads only if they are both long and steep. This Sealed Long, Steep Sections (SLS) design aims to upgrade only those slopes most susceptible to run-off damages due to extended lengths coupled with gradients of 6% or above. Where there are long, sloped road segments, water often flows along the road and accumulates, causing drainage problems and quick deterioration of graveled surfaces. These represent some of the most problematic sections of the East Road and would be targeted under this scenario for priority sealing. Road segments that are steep but short (less than 250 m) would be left graveled.

For all improved scenarios, concrete cement is proposed for any upgrading over 15%, since chip-seal does not typically work well on high gradients.

Using Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking records for the Malaita East Road from Atori to Dala, 5,856 road segments with gradient details were delineated and mapped using geographic information system (GIS) mapping software. These segments were mapped for the current road and also used to model surface conditions defined by the
pre-ultrasound period and during the two post-ultrasound periods in the NFHS sample. The sample is restricted to first births as only these are quasi-random. SC and ST denote Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, respectively. Column (7) shows the differences in sample means among FB and FG families for the entire sample. The larger sample size of FB relative to FG families reflects the fact that the *** ** * sex ratio at birth is naturally above one. 1%, 5%, 10% 40
modules in LSMS‐ISA surveys include a variant of the question _‘In the last [reference period], did you work as an employee for a wage, salary, commission, or any payment in kind, including doing paid apprenticeship, domestic work or paid farm work, even if only for one hour?’_ This question is a critical first step to capture wage employment, including casual labor. The complexity becomes, however, evident in those surveys that aim to distinguish casual labor from other types of wage employment. The 2015/16 Ethiopia LSMS‐ISA survey, for instance, includes the questions _‘How many hours in the last seven days did [name] do any work for a wage, salary, commission, or any payment in kind, excluding temporary?’_ and _‘How many hours in the last seven days did [name] engage in casual, part‐time, or temporary labor?’_ The difference between both questions is unclear and is not further clarified in the enumerator manual. A similar approach is used in Malawi, where the first question is the same as in Ethiopia but excludes ‘ganyu’ labor<sup>15</sup> , while the second question asks the respondents to report on casual, part‐time or _ganyu_ labor. In Tanzania, a different approach is followed. Rather than distinguishing casual labor from other types of wage employment using stylized questions, persons engaged in wage employment are asked whether they have a ‘permanent’, a ‘specific task’, a ‘fixed time’ or a ‘casual contract’. In the Swahili questionnaire, the term casual contract is translated as ‘kibarua’. According to Oya (2013) and Mueller (2015), _kibarua_ is used for most forms of manual casual labor, and often has a negative connotation in Tanzania.

# 4.2.4. Time diaries

The fourth approach to measure hours worked in paid and unpaid economic activities is a time diary,
|4|Reported number of total children desired by<br>the core respondent (including any they<br>already have).<br>=1 if core respondent is HIV positive.|
|HIV Positive<br>Anemic|III<br>III|Core<br>Respondent<br>Core<br>Respondent|Yes<br>Yes|2,3,4<br>4|Biomarker data for HIV were collected<br>through home based voluntary counseling and<br>testing (HCT).<br>=1 if core respondent is anemic (biomarker<br>data). An individual is considered anemic if<br>her hemoglobin count is less than or equal to<br>11g/dL if pregnant and less than or equal to<br>12d/dL if non-pregnant based on WHO<br>guidelines to define mild anemia.|

63
# **C. Mortality, fertility and migration**

The full effect of violence can be underestimated if the shock increases fetal deaths (survival selection). Using the DHS’s pregnancy calendar, it is possible to distinguish between live births and terminations<sup>49</sup> and analyze the effect on this outcome. Despite known difficulties in capturing information about fetal mortality, we do not expect this problem to be more pronounced in Colombia than elsewhere, especially poorer countries where more births and deaths occur outside of the health system. Only pregnancies within five years from the survey are used, a standard procedure used to alleviate recall error. The models are estimated as in Equation 1 but without controlling for gender, multiple birth and skilled delivery, as this information is not available for non-live births.<sup>50</sup> Because terminations tend to happen early in the pregnancy,<sup>51</sup> I interact the indicators of exposure to violence in the second and third trimesters with a dummy for whether the pregnancy reached those trimesters, and check the results with the alternative method of using the expected full-length trimesters. Because the number of cases per woman is much larger than for live births, I can further estimate a mother fixed-effects model.

There are 39,500 thousand pregnancies from non-migrant women, of which 18% do not end in a live birth. Compared to the live births sample, exposure to violence here is lower, with 2.5% of pregnancies exposed during gestation. The share of live births among exposed pregnancies is not significantly lower compared with those that were not exposed (91.3% vs 81.9%). The regression results, where this relationship between violence and the outcome of the pregnancy (terminated or live birth) is examined are in Table 7 (columns 1-5). Overall, there is not a significant effect of a shock in the first trimester on the likelihood of a terminated pregnancy, neither in the base specifications
to estimate the effect of the program for each post‐program year separately For both equations 1 and 2, I conduct two types of robustness checks. First, I add the fourth root of US imports (from all countries) in industry i and month t as a control variable.<sup>8</sup> Controlling for US imports addresses the concern that employment in eligible and ineligible industries may evolve differently in the post‐program period if demand for Mexican exports in these industries behaved differently. In this case, I would attribute differences in employment to the program, whereas it was actually driven by differences in export demand. I control for US imports since the US is Mexico’s largest trading partner. I chose to control for US imports from all countries instead of US imports from Mexico only since the former variable is less likely to be affected by the Mexican wage subsidy program, i.e. it is more likely to be exogenous to the program. As mentioned above, data on US imports is not available for all 34 industries in the sample. Due to mismatches in industry classifications I only have data on US imports for

> 8 I use the fourth root since it mimics a log function, but does not drop zeros and 2.72 percent of the observations are zeros. Using log of US imports instead gives very similar results.

8
more and more people will be exposed to flood risks.

Indeed, large coastal cities are likely to be risk hotspots. Hallegatte et al. (2013) estimate the flood risks in the world’s 136 largest coastal cities. They show that population and asset growth, climate change and subsidence are all likely to contribute to a drastic increase in global average flood losses – from $6 billion per year in 2005 to over $60 billion in 2050, <mark>assuming proactive adaptation actions in all cities.</mark> Kulp and Strauss (2019) conduct a global assessment of the potential impact of sea level rise on the world’s coastal population. The global scale of their study and the use of high-resolution flood and population data makes it the closest comparable analysis of flood risk. Their assessment suggests that today between 190 million and 630 million people (depending on the emissions scenario considered) live in areas that could be inundated by sea level rise by the year 2100. They also estimate that one billion people live on land that is less than 10 meters above current high tide lines.

This present study complements the one by Kulp and Strauss (2019) in several ways: First, it considers not only the one billion people living near current high tide zones and coastal flood risk zones – but expands the analysis to the world’s population of 7.7 billion, including those living inland. This study does so by considering fluvial and pluvial flooding, in addition to coastal flooding. Second, rather than focusing on future risk, this study considers the risk levels that already persist today. And third, rather than focusing on the slow-onset hazard of sea level rise, this study estimates people’s exposure to intense flood disasters – for instance those caused by intense rainfall.

# **3. Data**

Several data sets are used in this study to calculate global population exposure to flood risk. The methods for combining the data sets into a single flood risk map per country are
As a result, this review will not provide a comprehensive discussion of interventions that address other types of GBV, such as trafficking of women, female genital mutilation, dowry deaths, or rape used as a weapon of war.

# **2.1.2 Methods used to compile the review**

This review draws from many published and unpublished sources, using databases such as Popline, Medline and Current Contents. Many program evaluations from middle and lowincome countries appear only the grey literature, so this review relies heavily on unpublished sources. Many national and international organizations have produced reviews of GBV initiatives in recent years. These reviews often focus on a single sector, such as health, education or communication, and they sometimes place a greater emphasis on describing program strategies than on synthesizing what is known about effective prevention. This paper benefited greatly from their work, notably the reviews of unpublished evaluations by the
Rubber is particularly important, as Côte d’Ivoire is Africa’s top rubber exporter, though productivity is dampened by the old age of current plantations and the use of non-improved seedling varieties.

Gender is a fundamental determinant of an individual’s opportunities and constraints in the country. Research has found that household allocation of crop income is gender-specific in Côte d’Ivoire (Duflo and Udry 2003) and that income from cash crops is usually controlled by men (Maertens and Swinnen 2010); occupational segregation is a key driver of gender gaps in the country (Donald, Lawin and Rouanet 2020). Rubber is no exception, with women making up only a small share of rubber producers nationally. Working together with the Ivorian rubber professional association APROMAC, we innovated on their standard agricultural extension training to address the twin problems of low agricultural productivity and low participation of women in rubber production.

The training was developed in the context of an intervention delivering improved planting material to eligible farmers through the Côte d’Ivoire Agricultural Support Program (PSAC), financed by the World Bank, which mandated the 3-day agricultural training before receiving inputs from the program. The setting for this study spans four regions in the south (Gboklé, Grand Ponts, La Mé and Sud-Comoé) and four regions in the center of Côte d’Ivoire (Haut-Sassandra, Iffou, Moronou and N’Zi). To be eligible, farmers needed to have less than two hectares of rubber cultivated pre-program and be willing to increase cultivation.

# **2.1 Experimental Design and Implementation**

Our sampling frame is the APROMAC database of farmers who applied to receive high-yield variety rubber seedlings from the program. While a small number of female producers also applied to receive rubber seedlings, here we focus on the male producers only.<sup>2</sup> We randomly assigned these male farmers to two variants of the agricultural extension training. The randomization was done at the village-level to ease training implementation and minimize non-compliance with treatment status. Once
afford private care versus public care.

Similarly, key medicines and supplies are more commonly available in private as opposed to public facilities. This again begins to suggest that private facilities may have more effective procurement and supply chain systems that prevent stockouts of these key inputs. The gap between public and private persists even in urban areas, suggesting that it is not driven by the inaccessibility or remoteness of facilities. Higher level public facilities have better availability, but the lack of medicines in lower level public facilities is concerning, given that medicines included in the SDI survey are geared towards primary care and would be useful and necessary even at lower levels. Private facilities that profit from medicine sales may also be further incentivized to maintain adequate stock in a way that public facilities are not. Further investigation is required to better understand the potential incentive structures, efficiencies, and management practices that may be driving better performance in private facilities, so that these practices can be emulated in public ones.

The SDI vignettes focus on core conditions that providers at all levels of the health care system should be able to successfully diagnose and treat. Diagnostic and treatment accuracy are higher at hospitals than health centers or health posts. Since the majority of initial patient presentation is likely to be at lower-level facilities, these results suggest that strengthening the capacity of workers at lower-level institutions is needed in order to enable them to act as the frontline of primary care. Results are not significantly different between public and private facilities or urban and rural facilities, suggesting an encouraging equity in the current distribution of skilled health care providers.

Nurses and lower-level medical providers comprise the majority of the health workforce and need to be relied upon for patient care. Yet, they performed significantly worse than doctors on diagnostic and treatment accuracy as measured by the SDI vignettes. With increased task shifting, lower-level staff are asked to play a larger role in patient care. Nurses are also more likely to prescribe antibiotics when they are not required (though this varies by country), which may be due to