rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
feed stuffs in 1995 (FAO, 1995). While not explicated, dummies for exporting countries are included in order to control for unobserved factors such as production environment and product quality that may vary across these countries. The term ,ji is the error term and is assumed to be normally distributed with mean zero.

We selected product categories for examination where data are available. We first conduct the analysis at an aggregate level that is defined by two digit under the STIC Revision 2 classification. The value of trade of 'cereals and cereal preparations' and 'fruits, nuts and vegetables' are regressed on the variables presented above.

United Nations trade data for 15 European countries and 9 African countries are used. The European countries include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and United Kingdom. The African countries include Chad, Egypt, the Gambia, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. A fixed-effect model for importing countries as cross-sectional groups is used since the error term is considered to reflect common characteristics within a group of observations associated with each country.

We show in Table 4 that standards for aflatoxin B 1 have significant negative effects on trade flows of both cereals and fruits, nuts and vegetables. It suggests that there are some sub-product-categories in both groups that were sensitive to the standards. In particular, most cereals were subject to the aflatoxins standards according to the FAO survey. Since a double-log specification is used, the coefficient of a variable can be interpreted as elasticity, and the greater coefficient estimate for cereals perhaps reflects this fact. The result implies that a 10 percent tightening of the aflatoxins standards (a 10 percent smaller maximum level of contamination) will reduce trade flow by 14.3 percent for cereals and 3.0 percent for fruits, nuts and vegetables.

13
worked at least one hour in the reference week. Among the non-employed, those individuals looking for a job during the previous four weeks and able to start work within two weeks were classified as unemployed. The remaining individuals were classified as inactive. In terms of formality, we regarded employees who are registered with the social security agency for their current job as formal-employed, while those not registered in the system were considered to be informal-employed.

As to the demographic characteristics of the participants, the survey includes questions on age, gender, marital status, education, number of children, and residence. Besides these demographic variables, SILC includes a diverse set of household income–related variables that allow us to determine whether the household receives any kind of social benefits.

Given the aim of this paper, which is to profile the relationship between labor market outcomes and social assistance in Turkey, we utilized SILCs in both a static and dynamic framework. In the static approach, we used the SILC 2013 cross section to estimate the relationship between the current labor status of an individual and the variables of interest. For 14+ individuals, SILC 2013 contains 47,827 observations. We weighted the observations with corresponding coefficients to achieve full representation of the Turkish labor market.

In the case of the dynamic approach, we estimated the relationship between annual labor market transitions and the relevant variables by utilizing the panel component of the SILCs. Ideally, the relationship would be estimated by using the observations on the latest possible transition period, namely, 2011–12. In this setup, we would utilize the two-year balanced panel component of the 2012 survey and be able to use corrected sample weights to gather countrywide representation.

However, one particular characteristic of the nature of labor market transitions limits the operational implementation of this approach. In point of fact, individuals generally show a great deal of inertia in moving from their initial position over the short term. For instance, 90 percent of individuals initially employed or inactive continued in that same status one year later;
components of focus in this paper. School safety is measured using the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) and the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) safety index, which describe the state of misbehavior and violence among students and school staff. The index is estimated by asking school principals their perspective on safety and violent incidents. The school safety index is comparable across all the PIRLS and TIMSS surveys because the items in all the years the assessment studies were utilized. This allows for comparability of the school safety index in countries that did not participate in the same years of the assessment rounds.

The school safety indexes in TIMSS and PIRLS are derived from principals being asked to rate the degree to which student misbehavior represents a serious problem in their school. The considered issues are: tardiness, absenteeism, classroom disturbance, cheating, profanity, vandalism, theft, intimidation or verbal abuse among students, physical injuries to other students, intimidation or verbal abuse of teachers or staff.

The PIRLS and TIMSS school principal surveys are well suited for capturing the occurrence of negative events at school. However, they may be subject to declaration biases for two reasons. First, the principal, as the school leader, is the ultimate person accountable for incidents, violent or not, that occur within a school. Therefore, school principals might be reluctant to admit serious deviations from the norm. Second, the principals’ management style has been shown to be critical in setting a culture of discipline, guaranteeing the enforcement of rules, and providing an adequate learning environment.

Moreover, principals’ support is found to be key to setting the tone for school disciplinary processes and teacher morale (Stallings and other 1981). Empirical studies also demonstrate that transformational leadership in schools is effective in improving the quality of pedagogy, school safety the disciplinary climate, and even explaining directly students’ performance (Halawah, 2005; Marks and others 2003; 2
Policy Research Working Paper 10431

# **Abstract**

How do policies that ease the integration of immigrants shape their fertility decisions? This paper uses a panel survey of undocumented Venezuelan migrants in Colombia to compare the fertility decisions of households before and after the launch of an amnesty program that granted such migrants a labor permit and access to social services. The results suggest the amnesty reduced the likelihood that program beneficiaries would have a child due to better labor market opportunities for women and greater access to family planning resources through health care services.

This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at sandrarozo@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
|Hansen J p-value|0.163|0.173|0.376|
|---|---|---|---|
|AR1 p-value|0.00147|0.00145|0.00189|
|AR2p-value|0.203|0.193|0.170|

**Note:** This regression is performed using a system generalized method-of-moments estimators, developed by Arellano and Bovver (1995); and Blundell and Bond (1998).  The period goes from 1970 to 2020, and we constructed 13 periods, each variable for a given period representing the average on four consecutive years. **Variables -** log GDP/Capt−1   is the lag of the logarithm of GDP; **_Adj Trade_** is adjusted trade share; **_Invest (% GDP)_** is private investment measured by gross fixed capital formation in percentage of GDP; **_Human capital (%)_** represents secondary school enrollment ratio; and **_Inflation (2010 = 100)_** is Consumer Price Index. Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The second order lagged GDP per capita is used as an instrument for the lagged dependent variable. The lag of adjusted trade share is used as an instrument for adjusted trade share.

# **5. CONCLUSION**

This study was launched to assess the causal relationship between trade and economic growth, using IV strategies based on innovative instruments. It utilized unbalanced panel data from 197 countries for a period spanning 51 years (ending in 2020). The benefit of relying on an IV strategy is derived from its ability to address the recalcitrant problem of endogeneity in trade-growth modeling.

The findings of this study confirm the positive and significant causal impacts of trade intensity on GDP per capita. Specifically, the impact of trade intensity ranges from
The 2007 flood began in late December 2006 after the dam in the Cahora Bassa lake (situated in the Tete Province) overflowed following heavy rains in Northeastern South Africa. The flooding conditions worsened after heavy rains hit the area in February 2007 and the Zambezi river flooded parts of Zambezia, Tete, Sofala and Manica provinces. The devastating floods resulted in massive destruction of crops and public infrastructure, weakened food security and disrupted the provision of critical services. To measure the location and intensity of the floods, we first calculate daily rainfall averages for each grid within a district using TMPA data. Next, area-weighted averages are aggregated at the district level. Given that the floods unfolded over 2.5 months, daily areaweighted averages are aggregated over this period to obtain cumulative rainfall values for each district. Finally, flood intensity is expressed in standardized z-scores of rainfall totals in the months of the disaster in 2007 using the historical distribution from the reference period 2000-2012 for each district. The first graph in the top (left to right) of Figure 2 shows the distribution of accumulated rainfall for the 2007 flood during the reference period.

The second event examined is Jokwe, a tropical cyclone that struck parts of Central Mozambique in March 2018, particularly Nampula province. Jokwe reached gusty winds of up to 270 km/h (165 mph) that jointly with heavy rains caused serious agricultural damage and destroyed schools, health centers, roads and housing. Storm intensity is defined in a similar fashion as flood intensity. Daily grid-level wind speed data are aggregated over the days of Cyclone Jokwe using area weights and expressed as Z-scores.<sup>4</sup> The second graph in the top (left to right) of Figure 2 shows the distribution of accumulated windspeed across the country during the reference period.

Finally, we investigate the impacts of a severe drought experienced in 2005. Several parts of Central and Southern Mozambique recorded large rainfall deficits. The most severe dry spells happened in January and February, overlapping with critical stages of planting and
<!-- Start of picture text --> 8,000<br>1.00<br>6,000 0.60<br>0.20<br>4,000<br>-0.20<br>2,000<br>-0.60<br>0 -1.00<br>2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022<br>PEP<br>started<br>Year<br>Venezuelans Growth Rate (Right Axis)<br>(Thousands) Growth Rate<br>Venezuelans Inflows<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 6. Venezuelan Inflows to Colombia _Notes:_ The data comes from the Colombian migration agency, _Migraci ́on Colombia_ , and includes transitory migration. There is no data available before 2003.

# **VII. A Testing the lack of information hypothesis**

We designed a survey experiment to evaluate whether Colombian natives: (i) are informed about the PEP program and (ii) conditional on receiving information on the PEP program, change their prosocial views and voting behaviors.

For this we conducted an in the Colom- purpose, in-person survey experiment Bogot ́a, bian city with the highest number of Venezuelan migrants.<sup>17</sup> The randomized trial offered treated individuals information about the PEP program in order to later collect measures on their prosocial views and voting intentions. Particularly, everyone read the following information (translated into English here): _“4.6 million Venezuelans have been forcibly displaced and 4 of every 10 live in Colombia (1.7 million).”_ In addition, the treatment group read 17According to the last population census (2018), 166,566 Venezuelans live in Bogot ́a; this corresponds to 2.32 percent of its population.

32
# **Conclusion**

This paper has documented the nature of disputes as they emerge through survey data and the case files of NGO reformed shalish. It has also analyzed based on qualitative data, the ways in which the shalish helps and hinders local justice. Further, it has documented the evolution of local justice systems as a dynamic force, changing to keep pace with new socio-political realities. It has gone on to aid the understanding of more formal institutional mechanisms of local dispute resolution, particularly the village courts.

In Bangladesh as in many other societies, dispute resolution is one of the core needs of especially the poor, who cannot access formal courts. Old elites in the country are transforming themselves and new elites are gaining ground. This is tied up to new structures and processes of decisionmaking at the local level, of which local justice is a part. Therefore, reform of the local justice system is intrinsic to the enhancement of equity and inclusion, within the context of broader local governance reform.

Turning from empirical description to normative policy reflection, we suggest a number of opportunities for strengthening local justice. The village courts may pose a useful bridge between Bangladesh‘s informal and formal justice institutions. International experience on such intermediate institutions is mixed: they have succeeded in some cases, as with lay justices of the peace in Peru, and failed in others, as with nyaya panchayats in India.

To improve the _fairness_ of village courts, reformers could consider provisions to check the authority of the UP chairperson, like recusal rules, publicity requirements, and the right of parties to strike a panelist. Asking the village courts to apply the general body of substantive formal law may be unrealistic and unwise. But fairness may be served by specifying a core set of fundamental rights to which village court decisions would be required to comply.

To improve the _effectiveness_ of village courts, reformers could consider greater training for UP members, an increase in the jurisdictional limit on village court cases, a streamlining of the process for enforcing decisions
# **Methods of Allocation**

The CEQ methodology consists of different methods for allocating taxes and social spending from the national account to individuals in the household survey. The methods include **_direct identification,_** used when the survey reports the beneficiaries of social spending (the taxpayers) and the amount they received (paid); **_imputation,_** used when the beneficiaries of spending (the taxpayers) are reported in the survey but not the amount they receive (are paid); and **_simulation_** , used when neither the beneficiaries of spending (the taxpayer) nor the amount they received (were paid) is reported in the survey. The allocation method is selected regarding the availability of information in the survey. The allocation methods used in the case of Niger are described in the following paragraphs for each item of the fiscal system.

# _Direct Transfers_

Scholarships and support to non-grant students in Niger are given to university students meeting the criteria of the _Direction des Bourses et des Aides Financières_ (holding the nationality, having filled an application). Thus, the coverage of that program is university students who are citizens of Niger. The beneficiaries of that program, as well as the amount they received, are reported in the two surveys; thus, the allocation method is direct identification.

There are two types of school feeding programs that the government has put into place ( _cantines nomades_ and _cantines sédentaires_ ), for the purpose of improving school attendance and success rates. The school feeding program covers primary and secondary students, mostly those located in nomadic and sedentary regions. While the surveys do not directly identify the beneficiaries, they do provide information about the educational level and the type of school for each individual. The statistical book of the National Institute of Statistics also contains data about the geographical repartition of school feedings. The potential beneficiaries (pupils attending either primary or secondary education) are identified, and the current program repartition is considered through the regional quotas, to randomly select
***</sup><br>0.017<sup>***</sup>|
|_(% of GDP, logs)_|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)<br>(0.000)|
|Market Concentration|0.015<sup>***</sup>|0.020<sup>***</sup>|0.013<sup>***</sup><br>0.006<sup>***</sup>|
|_(Herfindahl Index)_|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)<br>(0.000)|
|Product Concentration|-0.031<sup>***</sup>|-0.038<sup>***</sup>|-0.019<sup>***</sup><br>-0.020<sup>***</sup>|
|_(Herfindahl Index)_|(0.000)|(0.000)|(0.000)<br>(0.000)|
|Natural Resource exports||0.007<sup>**</sup>|-0.002<sup>**</sup><br>-0.005<sup>***</sup>|
|_(% of GDP)_||(0.002)|(0.002)<br>(0.000)|
|Secondary enrollment rate|||0.003<sup>***</sup><br>0.008<sup>***</sup>|
|_(initial level, logs)_|
characteristic that has some possible influence with project quality is the TTL’s World-Bank-specific project experience.

# **_Project design in the qualitative data and the link between World Bank analytic work and project quality_**

While there is some indication that the quality of project design plays a role in ultimate project success – specifically the ‘value-added’ of the preparation TTL covaries with the IEG rating, at least in IBRD settings, and the previous design experience of World Bank projects helps predict the TTL ‘value added’ – the evidence for the importance of design is relatively scant in relation to the evidence of the importance of supervisory quality. For this reason, we turn next to the qualitative data set and explore measures of project design not routinely captured in administrative data.

Table 8 presents some simple bivariate associations (estimated with OLS) in the qualitative data between the IEG rating and various generalized design features. These features include design complexity measures such as the number of project components and sub-components, the number of primary development objectives, and the number of intermediate indicators as described in core project documents. Additional measures include expert panel ratings (based on a 4-point Likert scale) of the quality of the stated project objectives and the project results framework, as well as whether and to what extent project components were modified as part of a restructuring (while project restructuring may occur for various reasons, changes to project components suggest possible design challenges). Many of these indicators are significantly associated with the project’s success rating. Design complexity measures such as the number of project components or the number of intermediate indicators are significantly and negatively associated with subsequent IEG rating. Project designs that fail to define the basic aspects of a results framework (as evidenced by a low score from an expert review panel) also receive lower outcome ratings. The most common results framework shortcomings identified in our sample of 120 operations were inadequate baseline information or indicator targets and an absence of indicators relating to the project’s expected outcome.

Further evidence on the stickiness
access to finance) and the demand side (i.e., inadequate returns to investment and/or inadequate private appropriability of returns).

Another approach proposed more recently is the _Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework_ (GIFF) which focuses on exports and on first the identification of sectors of latent comparative advantage and second on feasible and focused policies to achieve structural transformation toward the production in these sectors (Lin and Monga, 2010). Like the product space analysis proposed by Haussmann and Hidalgo,<sup>13</sup> this approach commences with the identification of a list of tradeable goods and services. However, the focus is not on related products but on products exported in the previous 20 years in dynamically growing countries with similar endowment structures and per capita income. The methodology then focuses on specific measures to develop priority sectors including: identifying binding constraints; attracting global investors and/or incubating domestic firms; highlighting unique country endowments and new technologies/industries; developing targeted interventions to address poor infrastructure and bad business environments; and providing time bound incentives to pioneer firms.

- Empirical work on determinants of trade and investment

The availability of indicators has led to advances in the empirical understanding of determinants of trade and investment outcomes at a more granular level and a considerable literature. Offering firm level data and a large array of firm level indicators, including direct and indirect measurement of policy induced costs, Enterprise Survey data is a key contributor. Among the seminal works, Dollar, Hallward-Driemeier and Mengistae (2005) show using enterprise survey data that the investment climate affects various metrics of firms’ performance. Dollar, Hallward-Driemeier and Mengistae (2006) use surveys from 8 countries to assess the impact of policies affecting investment climate on firm international trade integration. Low customs clearance times, reliable infrastructure and good financial services are associated with the likelihood to export. Eifert, Gelb and Rachamandran (2005) and Eifert, Gelb and Rachamandran (2008) find the importance of high indirect and business environment cost impact negatively the productivity of