rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
_GLOBAL FOOD INSECURITY OUTLOOK_ _5_ work and lending is geared toward investments that contribute to set development goals that are grounded in country economic analyses. Food insecurity in turn poses wide economic risks that may lead to serious setbacks in progress toward the development goals of affected countries.<sup>3</sup> Economic developments and food insecurity trends should therefore not be analyzed in isolation of one another.<sup>4</sup> The focus on prevention has motivated researchers to develop forward-looking capabilities. This paper specifically contributes to understanding the ability of statistical models to anticipate future food insecurity conditions in the particular context of assessing development financing needs and builds on several earlier efforts. Mellor (1986) discussed prevention strategies with an emphasis on economic weakness, crop failure, and subsequent price signals as leading indicators of famine, providing a modeling context that remains relevant to this day. Inflation signals in particular had also been discussed for instance by Seaman and Holt (1980), who theorized that in anticipation of extreme food shortage, market prices should increase as populations begin hoarding food items. Cutler (1984) evidenced this using data from the Ethiopian famine in 1972–1974, and Khan (1994) during the famine of 1984-1985 in Niger. Andr ́ee (2021a) provides a longer list of severe food crises that occurred at the backdrop of record inflation levels.

More recently, researchers have begun to implement these ideas using machine learning techniques that draw from a wider variety of indicators for prediction. The majority of these efforts focus on granular predictions derived from novel data sources. For example, Mwebaze et al. (2010); Okori and Obua (2011) predict household famine in Uganda between 2004 and 2005, Vu et al. (2022) predict changes in household level food insecurity in Vietnam, and Lentz et al. (2019) predict food insecurity for village clusters in Malawi. Martini et al. (2021); Foini et al. (2022) develop high-frequency now-casting capabilities at a global scale focused
The gap in living standards correlates in part to personal characteristics of residents such as ethnicity and education level. In particular, it is recognized that poverty in Vietnam is strongly associated with ethnicity (ADB, 2006; Epprecht, Müller, and Minot, 2011; Hung and Reilly, 2009).<sup>27</sup> Table 2 shows that minorities are especially concentrated in the mountainous regions. Educational attainments varied across locations; urban dwellers tended to be better educated with 8.7 years of educational attainment on average as compared to those in rural areas with 6.6 years of education.

The regional disparities can also be viewed in terms of employment opportunities. Whereas the unemployment rate in Vietnam for the year 2004 was relatively low, underemployment is a common phenomenon in Vietnam especially in rural areas.<sup>28</sup> Foreign- and state-owned sectors may provide superior jobs, offering workers full-time employment opportunities and paying higher wages given personal characteristics (Fukase, 2013a). Table 2 demonstrates that the proportions of workers who are employed in state and foreign sectors relative to total workers are 10.1 percent and 2.2 percent respectively. Employment in both sectors is nearly four times higher in urban areas relative to rural areas. As one might expect, state employment is highest in proportion in Hanoi (32.7 percent). As seen in Figure 4, employment by foreign firms is particularly unevenly distributed across regions with its highest concentration to be found in the Southeast.

# **V. First-Stage Model of the Determinants of Out-migration**

A multinomial logit model (Greene, 2003, Chapter 21.7.1) is a useful tool to examine how the determinants of migration differ according to the four migration outcomes defined above. The VMS includes information about the province from which each migrant originated and whether

> 27 While only 13.5 percent of the ethnic Vietnamese (Kinh) and Chinese were poor, 60.7 percent of ethnic minorities lived below the poverty line in
<!-- Start of picture text --> 5<br>0<br>−5<br>−10<br>−15<br>−20<br>0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8<br>Time (years)<br>Change in VA (%)<br><!-- End of picture text --> Fig. 1. Dynamics of VA losses in Lousiana after hurricane Katrina, as estimated by ARIO-inventory.

It is difficult to compare model results with economic data, for at least three reasons. First, a large share of losses is in the housing sector, which is difficult to measure in aggregated economic data. Second, the Louisiana economy was not only impacted by Katrina in 2005 and 2006, but also by numerous other events, including the rise in oil price, that was only partly linked to the Katrina landfall and created huge benefits to the local economy. Third, federal support to the state of Louisiana is not included in model simulations. Comparing the GDP impact at different point in time, however, it seems that the maximum GDP loss is later in the model than in the data, but this result varies depending on the sector. In 2004, growth rate in the manufacturing sector was 26.1% in Louisiana, vs. 5.6% in the entire U.S. In 2005, the rates were respectively 9.6 and 0.9%, and Katrina is likely to have contributed to the reduction in the gap between the two rates. In 2006, the rates were -11.4% and 5.5%, suggesting that the impact of Katrina may have been largest during the year 2006. These data support the idea that there are complex dynamics in the response to the disaster: the classical scenario of an instantaneous shock followed by a regular and monotonic return to equilibrium does not fit data very well. Bottlenecks and inventories may 26
_Subjects.—_ We construct linking functions specific to reading math, and science. While the proficiency is not granular at the test item level, this ensures that there is significant proficiency overlap when tests are being put on a global scale.

_Subsamples.—_ When calculating the HLO by gender we apply the average linking function to each subsample, rather than constructing subsample specific linking functions. While performance is likely to vary across subsamples in a given test, the relationship between pair-wise tests being linked is unlikely to vary across subsamples nor relative to the full sample.

_Metadata versus Aggregate Data.—_ Our database is disaggregated by subject, schooling level, grade, year and source test. We call this version the ‘metadata.’ The final data series used in the Human Capital Index (HCI) aggregates the metadata presented in this paper. The aggregation used in the HCI is described in depth in Kraay (2019). There are multiple ways to aggregate the data. For example, the HCI averages data across schooling levels and subjects and uses the most recent year available. The HCI further combines data differently depending on the testing source, for example, including EGRA data in the final time series only when no other data is available. This implicitly weights the importance of testing source over schooling level or subject. Alternative aggregations of the metadata are possible. We present the metadata in this database to enable users to make judgements based on the purpose of their analysis and for maximum transparency.

_Exceptions.—_ In unusual cases, the procedures practiced for a given international or regional test are adapted for the country context. Sri Lanka took a national assessment with items linked to the PISA test to provide comparable scores. Sixth grade students in Botswana took TIMSS instead of fourth grade in 2011. Another example includes India and China, where only certain states and cities participated in PISA. These variations are acknowledged by the underlying tests and the data is caveated with an asterisk in published reports. We preserve this information in our
. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhn003

- Dreher, A., Langlotz, S., & Marchesi, S. (2017). Information Transmission and Ownership Consolidation in Aid Programs. _Economic Inquiry_ , _55_ (4), 1671–1688. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12450

- Dreher, A., Fuchs, A., Hodler, R., Parks, B. C., Raschky, P. A., & Tierney, M. J. (2019). African leaders and the geography of China’s foreign assistance. _Journal of Development Economics_ , _140_ , 44–71. <u>https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.04.003</u>

Dreher, A., Fuchs, A., Parks, B., Strange, A., & Tierney, M. J. (2020). Aid, China, and Growth: Evidence from a New Global Development Finance Dataset. _American Economic Journal: Economic Policy_ . <u>https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20180631</u> Dreher, A., Fuchs, A., Hodler, R., Parks, B. C., Raschky, P. A., & Tierney, M. J. (2021). Is Favoritism a Threat to Chinese Aid Effectiveness? A Subnational Analysis of Chinese Development Projects. _World Development_ , _139_ , 105291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105291

- Gehring, K., Michaelowa, K., Dreher, A., & Spörri, F. (2017). Aid Fragmentation and Effectiveness: What Do We Really Know? _World Development_ , _99_ , 320–334. <u>https://doi.org/10.1016/j
|18.02|17.66|18.84|23.59|24.78|21.42|
|Male family days/ha|113.77|116.48|108.31|60.63|58.81|64.73|160.31|170.57|141.54|
|Female family days/ha|59.83|60.01|59.47|31.55|31.49|31.68|84.60|86.76|80.66|
|Hired labor?|0.26|0.24|0.31|0.29|0.25|0.37|0.24|0.22|0.26|
|Hired labor days/ha|5.52|5.37|5.81|2.62|2.16|3.68|8.05|8.39|7.44|
|Number of observations|1587|1060|527|741|513|288|846|547|299|

**Source:** Own computation from AAU/Gothenburg/WB survey 2006/07.

19
quarterly labor income in Connecticut (CT) to 6.4% of quarterly labor income in Mississippi (MS). Two factors are at play here: First, the level of per-capita labor income is much lower in MS than CT, and so xed dollar payments are mechanically more important. Second, much of the variation is driven by the low-income rebate (those paying no net taxes), which is focused toward poor states. Of the 4.1 percentage point gap in stimulus transfers in 2008Q2 between MS and CT, 3.4 percentage points are due to the cross-state allocation of the low-income component. Panel C of Figure 2 shows the same stimulus package and quarter but for quarterly growth in GDP per capita rather than labor income, which generates a steeper slope of 0.9, but one that is less precisely estimated (t-stat = 2.5). The nal scatter plot (Panel D) displays the relationship between the 2001 EGTRRA stimulus payments (as a share of labor income, x-axis) and contemporaneous per-capita labor income growth in 2001Q3 (y-axis). Again, states that received a larger payment (as a share of labor income) tended to grow faster contemporaneously, though here the multiplier is large at 1.25 (t-stat = 4). I do not put too much weight on these scatter plots quantitatively as they have no controls.

3.2. Main Empirical Results. The main empirical results are presented in Panel A of Table 1, which pool across all transfer changes grouped by persistence and dependent variable. The rst row presents a parsimonious specication, with no controls beyond state and quarter FEs. The second row presents a benchmark specication, which includes controls for US GDP growth _×_ state FEs, and population growth, and is used for placebo tests (Figure 2) and used to compare with the theoretical model in Section 5. The 50 US GDP growth _×_ state FEs are to control for dierential state sensitivities to
>700000 300<br>600000<br>200<br>500000<br>400000 100<br>300000 0<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: Panel (a) shows the yearly data on population of Roraima from 2001 to 2020 and the x-axis shows the years from 2018, where 0 represents 2018. Panel (b) shows the bimonthly data on total government expenditure in Roraima from year 2015 to 2020 and the x-axis shows distance from the second bimonth of 2018 in units of 2 months with 0 representing April 2018 and y-axis is in millions of Brazilian reais and is adjusted for inflation using national IPCA. The solid line represents the predicted values of a local linear smoother estimated using raw data on each side of the threshold at zero. Outer dashed lines indicate 95 percent confidence intervals.

The humanitarian assistance provided to the forcibly displaced Venezuelans has been mainly conducted by the military in Brazil at the federal level. Operation Welcome, the flagship strategy of the Brazilian government in response to the influx of Venezuelans was initiated in February 2018 and incurred an expense of 152 million Brazilian reais in 2018, followed by an expense of 259 million Brazilian reais in 2019 and 219 million Brazilian reais in 2020, and amounts to about 732 million Brazilian reais till July 2021 (Figure 5a). This expenditure was not exclusively spent on Roraima and

> 6Due to unavailability of a good control, we compare Roraima with the other Northern states.

8
the grievances triggered by the economic deterioration and the leadership crisis of the mid-2010s. These grievances indicate an erosion in support for the social contract that emerged after the end of the military dictatorship and was shaped since 2002 by the Partido dos Trabalhadores, which dominated Brazilian politics until its electoral loss in 2018. All groups to different extents, especially the middle class (middle 40%), expressed dissatisfaction with their standard of living, reflecting deficits in the quality of public services. The economic crisis and subsequent weak economic growth fueled growing pessimism and fears, especially among people with newly acquired middle-class status, of falling back into poverty. The young and the poor were also dissatisfied with wide-spread corruption, which exacerbated the leadership crisis and further limited the state capacity to deal with the consequences of the economic crisis.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the conceptual framework and the literature on SWB and economic development with a specific focus on Brazil. Section 3 presents the data, variables, and empirical strategy. Section 4 discusses the empirical results, while Section 5 links the results to the outcome of the 2018 general election. Section 6 offers a summary, caveats, and a discussion of policy implications.

# **2. Conceptual framework**

# _2.1. Subjective well-being and experienced welfare_

We use the Cantril ladder scores in the Gallup World Poll to measure SWB or the degree to which an individual judges the overall quality of his or her own life-as-a-whole favorably. These cognitive measures of SWB, also known as life evaluation<sup>9</sup> measures (Veenhoven, 2000), are generally regarded as valid measures of ‘experienced welfare’ (cf. Senik, 2011) in a country (OECD, 2013; Helliwell et al., 2021). They offer advantages compared to widely used, objective measures of quality of life, such as per capita gross domestic product (GDP), income or expenditure from household surveys, the Human Development Index, and multidimensional
Policy Research Working Paper 7693

# **Abstract**

Countries around the world face a retirement crisis brought on by aging populations, declining birthrates, and fiscal shortfalls. As a result, policy makers increasingly seek to understand retirement savings patterns, a crucial component of the safety net for the elderly. Drawing on the 2014 Global Findex database, which provides individual-level data on the use of financial products in more than 140 countries, this paper examines how adults save for old age. It finds that about 25 percent of adults worldwide save for old age, with rates exceeding 35 percent in high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development economies and the East Asia and Pacific region. On average, men are slightly more likely than women to save for this purpose, but the gender gap is deeper in developing countries. Worldwide, saving for old age is more common among older adults, more educated adults, and adults who own accounts. Adults in countries with English legal origin, and with high savings rates, are also more likely to save for old age. The paper also finds that measures to increase trust in the financial system, such as the safety net/moral hazard index based on deposit insurance, lead to higher rates of saving for old age. Finally, the paper finds little evidence of substitution between pension system provisions and contribution rates with saving for old age.

This paper is a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at lklapper@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than
employment among the women who do enter shifts significantly towards smaller firms with an up to 41 percentage points increase in the probability of joining a smaller firm and an equivalent decrease in the probability of joining a larger firm. To confirm that these results are indeed driven by women who give birth, panels (c) and (d) of Appendix Figure A1 show the underlying evolution of new employment probabilities. Panel (b) of Figure 2 shows heterogeneity patterns in transitions into formal employment. It suggests that when expectant mothers find a formal job, it is disproportionately in smaller, domestic, and lower-productivity firms. The results on transitions into formal employment suggest that in response to the incentives generated by maternity benefits smaller, domestic, and less-productive firms formalize some of their previously informal employees.

# **4.4 Post-Childbirth Labor Market Outcomes**

We also examine whether pre-childbirth wage increases are associated with higher wages postchildbirth. As the majority of women return to work three years after giving birth (they receive two years of maternity benefits and one year of child care allowance or three years of child care allowance), and because we only have four years of follow-up data for 2012 and 2013 births, we focus on births in these two years and the period 37 to 48 months after childbirth, re-estimating equation (1) with these post-childbirth months included.<sup>11</sup> Panel (a) of Figure 3 shows the evolution of the earnings of women who give birth relative to the control group, separately for women who work in smaller and larger firms. It suggests that after returning from maternity leave, both groups of women earn less than women who do not give birth, which can be interpreted as a child penalty. The earnings decrease is 7.5% in smaller firms and 14.2% in larger firms. Although legal employment protections apply to all firms regardless of size, a bigger earnings decrease in larger firms could be consistent with different working conditions, less flexibility, more discrimination,
terms from small suppliers. We believe this is consistent with relatively untrusted suppliers extending longer terms to buyers to guarantee product quality. However, this leaves suppliers exposed to riskier credits. This is where discounts help. Riskier buyers are offered discounts to repay early so that suppliers can offer warranties about the quality of the product supplied even while containing the credit risk in their trade credit portfolio.

The paper continues as follows. In section 2 we review theories of trade credit, and we describe our data set in section 3. In section 4, we present the empirical results, and we conclude in section 5.

3
2005) and the African Gender Status Index (Economic Commission for Africa, 2004). Details of the indices are summarized in table A3. There are several issues with using outcome-based measures. First, typically income is included in these measures, which tends to have the highest degree of variation. This is problematic as the variable with the most variation gets the highest weight (Dijksra, 2001). Second, several of the outcome data are sparse, measured differently across economies, and mix different aspects such as empowerment and well-being (Klasen and Schueler, 2011). For instance the Gender-Related Development Index relies on income measures which are derived from a gender breakdown of labor force participation data and nonagricultural earnings data. Labor force participation data are unreliable and difficult to compare across countries. Furthermore earnings data are sparse and may come from sectors that do not represent the whole working population. Thus these measures can be problematic.

Measures that are more in line in with this study include the Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI; Branisa et al., 2014) and two indices from the CIRI Human Rights Data project – Women’s Economic Rights Index (WECON), and the Women’s Social Rights Index (WOSOC). WECON concentrates on women’s equal rights in the labor market while WOSOC focuses on women’s rights in the social sphere including education, marriage, travel etc. The information on laws for these indices is based on the data collected by the _Women, Business and the Law_ (WBL) project of the World Bank Group.

There are certain differences between this measures and what this study proposes. Both WECON and WOSOC capture a subset of laws and provide scores in the range of 0 to 3 based on the premise of whether internationally recognized human rights for women are included in the laws.

5
, and confer security of tenure has given many landlords and tenants a common interest in concealing agreements which may be deemed illegal (Singh, 1988). Only intensive field surveys and careful village studies can provide more precise estimates of tenancy since '[Tihe longer the period of stay in villages, the higher is the tenancy recorded' (Laxminarayan and Tyagi, 1977: 880).

Unfortunately, there is a dearth of surveys and few village studies in Orissa which offer such insights. This section combines field notes gathered in the course of the present study with material from two in-depth field studies (Sarap, 1998; Swain, 1998) to form a partial picture of the extent and nature of tenancy arrangements in different parts of Orissa.

It is estimated that on average, 10-20 percent of households in each village participate in the landlease market in Orissa, although this is subject to wide inter- and intra-regional variation. Using NSS data, Swain (1998) reported that 17 percent of households leased-in land in 1981-82. More than 80 percent of the leased-in area is in the size class of less than 10 acres, and the percentage of leased-in area to operated area decreases with the increase in size of operational holding. At the same time, nearly 85 percent of the area leased-out is by farmers with less than 10 acres. Together these results indicate considerable leasing activity (both in and out) by small and marginal farmners.

Land leasing or tenancy may take the form of fixed rentals or sharecropping arrangements, in which rents are paid in cash, in kind, or a combination of the two. Sharecropping is the predominant, though declining, form of tenurial arrangement in Orissa. About 42 percent of the leased-in area is under sharecropping as against about 14 and 8 percent respectively under fixed-produce and fixed-rent contracts (Swain, 1998). However, share tenancy seems to be more prevalent in non-irrigated villages than in irrigated villages. For example, Swain (1998) reports that more than 40 percent of the operational area is under