rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
or uncultivated), distance to key infrastructure, and soil quality; i is a vector of transaction characteristics; is a region fixed effect and i is an error term. ZZ ii Per hectare land prices are and expressed in January 2024 USD by using the monthly Consumer Price Index aa ee (CPI) to adjust for inflation and then convert to USD at the official exchange rate.<sup>19</sup> We eliminate duplicates, defined as the same parcel being transacted multiple times on the same date.<sup>20</sup> Extreme outliers are removed by trimming at the 1<sup>st</sup> and 99<sup>th</sup> percentiles.<sup>21</sup> Parcel characteristics include the Euclidean distance from parcels’ centroid to the nearest road, railway access point, port, grain elevator, or city from Open Street Map (OSM) data provides data on infrastructure access.<sup>22</sup> We also compute the share of parcel area covered by built area, crops, forest or grassland using crop classification data for the year prior to the transaction.<sup>23</sup> Finally, as we did not have access to nation-wide data on the soil quality index discussed earlier, we use publicly available SoilGrids data (Poggio _et al._ 2021) to obtain measures of soil quality, in particular pH, soil density, nitrogen and organic matter in the 0-60 cm horizon at the centroid of each parcel.<sup>24</sup> The vector i includes variables to capture transaction timing and adherence to legal requirements, and other characteristics. Specifically, we include (i) a war dummy that takes the value of one if the transaction ZZ happened after February 2022 when war conditions are likely to have significantly altered agricultural land supply and demand; (ii) the number of buyers if a parcel was acquired in joint ownership; (iii) a variable capturing the order of
Although, the privatized bank data are from different years (1995-96) than the private bank data (1993-1996), this does not appear to be driving the results.<sup>3</sup> ' Table 7, which shows income and cost data broken down by year, indicates that the privatized and private banks generated comparable levels of total income per peso of cost each year that data on privatized provincial banks are available (1994-1996). Privatized provincial banks did generate a higher share of income through services than private banks each year but, in terms of efficiency in generating total income, their performances were remarkably similar to their well-established private competitors, and markedly better than the remaining public provincial banks. Total income outpaced administrative costs by a wide margin for the typical privatized and private bank every year. This should inspire some confidence in the future solvency of these iistitutions. In contrast, the financial and service income of the public provincial banks failed to outpace administrative costs every year.

The improved performance of the public provincial banks is not, moreover, the result of improved performance in only one or two banks. In _every_ instance in which the ratio of total income to administrative costs was less than one prior to privatization, the post-privatization ratio was greater than one (Table 8). This increased efficiency has coincided with substantial portfolio growth. Assets and liabilities have typically more than doubled in the years since privatization. It does not appear that privatized banks were content merely to maintain the portfolios that they inherited. Growth in assets has been fueled by the privatized banks' ability to attract deposits, which have increased at about the same pace as overall liabilities.

Substantial post-privatization improvement in the ratio of portfolio income to administrative costs suggests that new loans created from the increase in deposits have been profitable. Figures on branches and employment make it clear that the improved operating In particular, the "Tequila Crisis" which occurred late in 1994 is unlikely to be causing the results.

18
electricity consumption there is measured with huge errors or economic activity in these divisions was impacted less.<sup>10</sup> The declines in electricity consumption in Dhaka and Chattogram are very much in line with the decline in mobility. The Google mobility data are based on aggregated smartphone GPS data. Thus, mobility trends are a decent measure for Dhaka compared with the peripheral regions, which have low smartphone penetration. Figure 8 shows that workplace mobility in Bangladesh dropped substantially during the first lockdown and much less during the later ones. Despite the containment measures, workplace mobility was only marginally below the

> 10 For the other divisions, the deviations from the model-predicted average growth of electricity consumption are not statistically significant even at the 10 percent level. The results by division are provided in table A1 in the appendix.

15
- DiTella, R., R. J. MacCulloch, and A. J. Oswald (2001): “Preferences over inflation and unemployment: Evidence from surveys on happiness,” _American Economic Review_ , 91(1), 335–341.

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|
|---|---|---|
|Schools|Rural households with child<br>below 12|Connected via road network to<br>closest school.|
|Health centers|All households|Connected via road network to<br>closest school.|
|Hospitals|All households|Connected via road network to<br>closest school.|
|Energy (substations)|All urban households having an<br>energy connection|Connect to substation in closest<br>proximity.|
|Sanitation|All households using pit latrines|Assumed<br>co-located<br>with<br>household location|
|Water|All households using tube wells|Assumed<br>co-located<br>with<br>household location|

> 1 The database on educational facilities from LGED only includes educational facilities in rural areas. As a result, we limited ourselves to the accessibility of rural households with respect to schools.

> 2 The synthetic household survey does not distinguish the type of electricity access (e.g. grid or off-grid solution). We hereby assume that only households in urban settlements with electricity are connected to the main electricity grid, while rural settlement have alternative energy provision, such as solar systems through the Bangladesh Solar Home Systems (SHS) Program, the largest national off-grid electrification program in the world.

16
- Castello-Climent, Amparo, Chaudhary, Latika and Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop (2018). Higher education and prosperity: From catholic missionaries to limonosity in india. _Economic Journal_ , **128,** 3039–3075.

- Castello-Climent, Amparo and Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop (2013). Mass education or a minority well educated elite in the process of growth: The case of india. _Journal of Development Economics_ , **105,** 303–320.

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- Chen, Shaohua, Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell, Lakner, Christoph, Lee, Kihoon, Mahler, Daniel Gerszon, Mungai, Rose, Nguyen, Minh Cong, Prydz, Espen Beer, Sangraula, Prem, Sharma, Dhiraj, Yang, Judy and Zhao, Qinghua (2018). Povcalnet update: Whats new. Global Poverty Monitoring Technical Note 2. The World Bank.

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Additional financial sector support included: (1) upwards revision of transactions and balance limits for individuals, small-scale farmers, and enterprises, and also of limits by agents to give them more float to process transactions; (2) removal of transaction limits on agents and corporate wallets; and (3) reduction of processing fees for real-time gross settlements (RTGS). In addition, the central bank extended liquidity support to financial service providers in response to the Bank of Zambia’s announcement of ‘Measures in Response to the Deteriorating Macroeconomic Environment and the Coronavirus’. These measures included a targeted medium-term refinancing facility with an initial amount of ZAR10 billion (US$569 million) that aimed to relieve cash-strapped enterprises and enable financial institutions to meet local business capital needs (BOZ 2021).

# **3 Methodology**

## **3.1 Data sources**

### **3.1.1 World Bank Enterprise Survey data**

As part of the efforts of the World Bank Group to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the private sector, the Enterprise Analysis Unit conducted follow-up surveys on recently completed ES in several countries. Wherever possible, these short surveys follow the baseline ES, re-contacting all establishments sampled in the standard ES using stratified random sampling. The universe of inference is all formal establishments with five or more employees that are engaged in one of the following activities defined using ISIC Rev. 3.1: manufacturing (group D); construction sector (group F); services sector (groups G and H); transport, storage, and communications sector (group I); and information technology (division 72 of group K).

In Zambia, three rounds of follow-up surveys to the firms that participated in a World Bank ES completed immediately prior to the pandemic provide the most comprehensive source of survey data measuring the impact of COVID-19 on formal firms. The baseline ES 10
# **_Money growth and inflation_**

The data shows that in the short run, inflation is more volatile than money growth due to shocks to agriculture and cereal production in particular (Figure 2), but in the long run, inflation and money growth follow a similar pattern. Money and non-food inflation followed an upward trend from 2002 until end 2011, followed by a downward trend over the period 2011-2017.

**Figure 2: Money growth and inflation (month-on-month growth rates, percentage)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 200.0<br>150.0<br>100.0<br>50.0<br>0.0<br>-50.0<br>-100.0<br>CPI inflation food inflation nonfood inflation<br>cereal inflation M1 growth Linear (M1 growth)<br>Jul-98 May-99 Mar-00 Jan-01 Nov-01 Sep-02 Jul-03 May-04 Mar-05 Jan-06 Nov-06 Sep-07 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Jul-13 May-14 Mar-15 Jan-16 Nov-16 Sep-17 Jul-18 May-19 Mar-20<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source_ : Authors’ construction using data from NBE database.

# **_World prices and Ethiopian prices_**

The data shows close co-movement between Ethiopian inflation and world inflation. Figure 3 displays the co-movement between Ethiopian all-items CPI inflation and world non-energy inflation, world food inflation and Ethiopian food inflation, and world grain inflation and Ethiopian cereal inflation. Both Ethiopian and world inflation exhibit sharp swings in 2008 and 2011 due to global food and energy crises. This study examines the relative price of foreign goods in terms of Ethiopian goods. This relative price is defined as ) or in logarithm form as l ) , where is the world price, _P_ the domestic price, and _E_ the exchange rate of the birr against the U.S. dollar.<sup>6</sup> The ff ff ff series plotted in Figure 4 are centered around the mean. PP/(EE.
# **3 The Modeling Framework**

The model consists of a sequentially dynamic CGE model that is linked to a microsimulation. The microsimulation takes the changes in factor and goods prices as given; hence, there is no feedback between these two parts of the model. We consider this framework particularly suited for the questions at hand, as the CGE model captures some of the main features of structural change and the relative price changes accompanying them. The microsimulation then allows for a detailed empirical assessment of the household responses to these changes. One of the major advantages of the microsimulation is that its unit of observation is the individual rather than the household, thereby offering a much richer representation of distributional dynamics.

# **3.1 The Macro Model**

A 1997 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) has been used as the initial benchmark equilibrium for the CGE model. This SAM has been assembled from various sources incorporating data from the 1997 Input Output table, information from the SAM assembled by Harrison, Rutherford, Tarr, and Gurgel (2003), and the 1997 and 2001 PNAD household surveys. For the purposes of this model the full SAM – which includes 41 sectors, 41 commodities, 12 factors (skilled and unskilled labor by gender and by farm and non-farm occupation, agricultural and non-agricultural capital, land and natural resources), an aggregate household account, and other accounts (government, savings and investment, and rest of the world)<sup>8</sup> – has been aggregated to a smaller size and it comprises the accounts shown in Table 1.

_<u>Table 1: CGE Model accounts</u>_

**<u>Model Sectors</u>** 1 CerealGrains 7 OilMinerals 13 MachineryEquipment 2 OilSeeds 8 LightManufacturing 14 OtherServices 3 RawSugar 9 AgriIndustriesExp 15 Construction 4 OthCrops 10 WoodProductsPaper 16 TradeCommunication 5 Livestock 11 ChemicalsOilPr 17 PublicServices 6 RawAnimalProducts 12 MetalMineralProducts **<u>Factors of Production</u>** 18 Land 20 Capital 22 Non
Cespedes and Velasco (2014) argue that procyclicality for commodity exporters is lower for the 2000s commodity boom relative to earlier booms, due in part to better institutions. The empirical part of our paper is similar in spirit to Cespedes and Velasco (2014), but we seek to explain cross-country variation in cyclicality based on the persistence of commodity price shocks and ER regime rather than due to institutional quality (which for us is a control). While we also construct countryspecific commodity price indices in a similar way as Cespedes and Velasco (2014), we estimate the MPS consistent with our theoretical model rather than estimating a reduced form, which we argue below improves the accuracy of the estimates.

Our paper also relates to the literature on the persistence of commodity price shocks. Although most papers in this literature recognize that the persistence of commodity prices is a key variable for policymaking in commodity-rich countries, they generally do not calculate optimal fiscal policy as we do.<sup>7</sup> Using a medianunbiased estimator on commodity price data for 60 commodities from 1957 to 1998, Cashin et al. (2000) find that the majority of individual commodities have a half-life above 5 years. Using a maximum likelihood approach, Borensztein et al. (2013) find that 7 of 9 important commodities have a half-life of 5 years or higher. Fornero and Kirchner (2014) estimate an unobserved components model for the copper price and find a half-life of the persistent component of 24 years. Fernández et al. (2020) decompose the dynamics of commodity prices into transitory shocks and a permanent global component (the “commodity super cycle”), and find the latter is an important driver of country-level business cycles (but not a dominant one). As an input into our calculations, we estimate the persistence of 61 commodity prices using around a century of data taken from Jacks (2013) and find wide variation in the persistence of shocks across commodities, with many being highly persistent (though still stationary).<sup
violent relationships (Garcia-Moreno et al. 2005, Rose et al. 2000, Counts et al. 1999). Research conducted by Foundation Perseu Abramo in 2010 confirms these findings within the Brazilian context, where helpseeking reaches one-half to two-thirds of domestic violence cases following threats or physical violence, with the majority of women reporting to mothers, sisters and other relatives.

The decision to speak out was usually associated with a “critical moment” marked by escalated violence. This is consistent with findings from the 2005 WHO multi-country study: In all sites, women who had experienced severe physical violence were more likely to report that they had told someone than women who had experienced moderate violence (Garcia- Moreno et al. 2005). More frequent or severe physical or verbal forms of aggression or violence in front of or against children or other family members were some of the key triggers mentioned by participants in this study. A 26-year old woman in Nova Iguaçú reported that escalating and increased frequency of violence informed her decision to reach out for help: “The last three weeks were the most painful ones for me, the ones I was most beaten, the ones I cried the most, and the ones that I really opened my mind to make the decision that I had had it... because it was happening frequently, every day it was happening... We exchanged two words and there was fighting... He simply started to attack me, even in front of my father.” Approximately half of the women interviewed looked for police stations as the first formal support. However, help-seeking from police was not associated with a stated preference for this specific service, but due largely to the fact that most women needed protection in an emergency situation and lacked information on the existence of alternative services. Women generally arrived at regular police stations after police responded to calls from the women themselves or by third parties in emergency situations. Women who had planned ahead to report generally sought out specialized police stations through the indication of family
all individuals in this group reported owning foreign assets, and foreign assets rose to represent four-fifths of all assets. Furthermore, a minority of individuals in the next 0.09% declared their foreign assets to Argentine authorities in 2015, so they experienced the largest increases in foreign asset disclosures. Overall, the share of foreign assets declared by the top 0.1% tripled.

# **3.3 Expanding the wealth and capital income tax bases**

The above results showed that the 2016 enforcement initiatives revealed substantial assets held by Argentines domestically and offshore. This section shows that, as a result,

> 7 For example, the 2016 income tax tabulation, which ranks individuals based on their income, includes data on assets held in 2015 and 2016 for each income bracket.

> 8Argentina’s wealth tabulations rank individuals based on total assets. To recover the share of foreign assets (and the effective tax rate) for each fractile, we cumulate the amount of foreign assets (and wealth taxes) by total assets, interpolate the cumulative function for each fractile with a smooth cubic spline function, and differentiate the interpolated function. Reassuringly, a linear interpolation delivers virtually the same results.

11
|16,772|3.0|*|59.0|
|Bunionectomy|3,139|12,190|2.2|*|20.7|
|Lens and cataract<br>procedures|2,215|11,483|2.4|*|40.4|
|Varicose vein<br>stripping, lower limb|1,957|12,596|2.6|*|42.1|
|Glaucoma procedures<br>|*|9,955|2.0|*|*|
|Tympanoplasty<sup>37</sup>|754|11,983|1.3|*|*|

_Source:_ H-CUP Nationwide Inpatient Sample, 2002. Statistics based on estimates with a relative standard error (standard error / weighted estimate) greater than 0.30 or with standard error = 0 in the nationwide statistics are not reliable. These statistics are suppressed and are designated with an asterisk (*).

> 37 Volume pertains to year 2000.

29
base year ( _t_ =0) price for each commodity as<sup>_P_</sup> _k_ 0<sup>, and the base year quantity of each commodity produced by the</sup> <u>∑</u> _k Qk_ 1 _Pk_ 0 household as _Qk_ 0 , then _Qi_ = is the Laspeyres quantity index for household _i_ , and ∑ _k Qk_ 0 _Pk_ 0 In both the RDP and RRMIMP data, the agricultural commodities entering the indices were potato, wheat, as well as high-yielding variety (HYV) Boro paddy, HYV Aman, and local and HYV Aus. Since the study covers only a base and a follow-up year, the base year indices for both aggregate price and output indices are equal to one. Note that all the values are in real terms, adjusted by the consumer price index of the base year of each survey.

> 9 For the RRMIMP study, not all villages were visited again in the follow-up survey.  A total of 7 out of 10 project villages and 2 out of 4 control villages were covered in the RRMIMP survey because (1) the roads were either not completed, or (2) control villages lost their control status as a paved road had been constructed within two kilometers of the village (thereby violating the basic assumption of being a control in the study). 10 Note that similar to aggregate crop output and price indices, we could calculate an index for fertilizer prices consisting of a number of fertilizers.  However, there are a few observations for types of fertilizer such as potash. So the fertilizer price here refers to the price of urea.

8
, annual panels such as the Panel Study of Income Dynamics in the United States and the Labor & Income Panel Study in the Republic of Korea are used. A table with the list of surveys and years used can be found in Table B.1 in Appendix B.

The social surveys tend to have smaller sample sizes, so when multiple waves of the same survey contain relevant information on educational attainment, these waves are pooled. This includes three waves of the ESS (from 2010-2014), six waves of the Latinobarometro (from 2008-2015), and two waves of the LITS (2006 and 2011).

For several countries, including some of the developing world’s largest countries such as Bangladesh and a notable number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, there are no surveys with retrospective data on parental education. In these cases, high-quality household surveys without

> 8 Like Neidhöfer et al. (2018), Latinobarometro is used instead of Lapop, which is another social survey covering the Americas. Lapop only asks for mother’s education. Conversely, Latinobarometro records the highest education level of father and mother, which is the variable used in this paper.

10