rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
, as the insurer typically has access to long time series data that is at least as good as any information possessed by potential purchasers. However, this relies on the insurer making the best use of available data. If, as seems common across India, ratemaking procedures are statistically inefficient, insurers may be exposed to adverse selection.

# _Standalone approaches to ratemaking_

In India, weather index insurance policies are typically rated on a standalone basis, with each calculation based on up to 30 years of historical weather data for the respective contractual weather station. First, weather data would be cleaned and analyzed for any trends which might lead to systematic increases or decreases in average claim payments over time. This cleaned, and possibly de-trended, data would then be applied to the specific contract to be priced, and the claim payments that would have been paid had that contract been in force, the _burn cost_ , would be calculated for each year for which historical data exists. The _Historical Burn Rate_ for the contract is then estimated as the arithmetic average historical burn cost divided by the sum insured. This is known as a Historical Burn Analysis (HBA), the simplest method of weather contract pricing.

The premium rate is then set to be the historical burn rate, adjusted by various loading factors to account for the cost of capital and administrative expenses, for example. Syroka (2007) suggests the following formula for WBCIS products: (4) where the Historical Burn Rate ( ) denotes the arithmetic average burn cost for the contract in question, the Data Uncertainty Factor ( ) is a load to account for any missing data, the Catastrophe Load ( ) accounts for the cost of acquiring risk capital, and the Administrative Load 12
(1986) Sample Size and Bentler and Bonett's Nonnormed Fit Index. _Psychometrika, 51:_ 375-377.

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_Silent Revolution._ Eds. A. Chickering and M. Salahdine. International Center for Economic Growth, San Francisco.

De Grazia, R.

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# Brazil

Brazil has a very extensive system of economic censuses which are the main basis fo. national accounts estimates for benchmark years, but its input-output table for 1975 is not yet available.

The 1975 Censo Industrial (IBGE, 1981a and 1981b), which covers mining as well as manufacturing, uses the same concept of value added as the US industrial census which we will henceforth refer to as the "US census concept". In Brazil, the latter concept is called "valor de transformacao". This value amounted to 306,893 million cruzeiros for manufacturing in 1975, as compared with 268,927 million in the national accounts estimate (Gusma Veloso, 1987) of manufacturing's contribution to GDP at factor cost. The difference between the two is due to miscellaneous costs for service inputs. These are not deducted from "valor de transformacao" but the census contains information on these cost items (there are 15 of them, as noted below). In the national accounts these items are deducted as inputs. As in the USA, Brazilian output is valued at producer prices excluding indirect taxes (IPI and ICM), but the output data refer to production including net changes in stocks, whereas US output figures refer to shipments trom the establishment, and do not take account of changes in stocks.

Thus, the Brazilian census information is reasonably congruent with the national accounts. Our adjusted estimate of gross value added in column (2) of table 2.1 is 263,269 million cruzeiros for 1975. This compares with 268,927 million in the national accounts. The remaining difference is due to the imputation for "autonomos" (i.e. non-census establishments) and to a small national accounts adjustment for differences in costs as recorded by companies and establishments.

Although we have arrived at a reasonable reconciliation of the two sources, it seems clear that the Brazilian national accounts understate industrial output by relying almost exclusively on activity as recorded in the industrial census. This understatement of output
adds to the literature by presenting the first causal estimates of the effects of a country-wide health insurance scheme on the incidence of child labor.<sup>3</sup> As a secondary contribution, we examine the effects on additional costly risk coping strategies such as the 1See Heady (2003), Borga (2019), and Mussa et al. (2018) for the effects of child labor on skill and human capital formation. Dumas (2012) and Keane et al. (2018) show detrimental effects of child labor on cognitive development. Also, children who work early on were found to have lower wages (Emerson & Souza, 2011; Posso, 2017) and a worse health status (Beegle et al., 2009; Sturrock & Hodes, 2016) later in life. Of course, it is not to question that food consumption profiles of children can be important determinants of their future health and education (e.g., Christian & Dillon, 2018). 2This is explained by various factors including increased administrative complexity, different implementation of the program at scale, and altered composition of program participants (Al-Ubaydli, List, & Suskind, 2017).

> 3Evidence from country-wide insurance schemes was highlighted as an important knowledge gap in the field of research on child labor (Dammert et al., 2018). The public scheme examined in this paper is indeed remarkably different from the schemes that were studied by Landmann & Fr ̈olich (2015) and Chakrabarty (2012). For example, it was not restricted to micro-finance clients but available to the general public, the number of insured people is several thousand times larger, and children as well as the elderly were automatically covered.

1
b) shows that over the past two decades, emissions from developing countries such as China and India surged to catch up. In 2006, China surpassed the United States to become the world’s largest emitter of CO2.

> 2 WHO Global Ambient Air Quality Database: https://www.who.int/airpollution/data/cities/en/. 3 Studies on the mortality impact of air pollution include Chay & Greenstone (2003), Currie & Neidell (2005), Currie & Walker (2011), Knittel et al. (2016), and Deryugina et al. (2019). Studies on morbidity costs include Moretti & Neidell (2011), Deschênes et al. (2017), Barwick et al. (2019), and Williams & Phaneuf (2019).

4 Recent papers on the impacts of climate change include Nordhaus (2006) and Dell et al. (2012) on economic growth; Mendelsohn et al.(1994), Schlenker et al. (2005), Deschênes & Greenstone (2007), and Burke & Emerick (2016) on agriculture; Deschênes & Moretti (2009), Deschênes & Greenstone (2011), and Barreca et al. (2016) on mortality; and Miguel et al. (2004), Hsiang et al. (2011), and Jia (2014) on social conflict.

2
labor demand, finding low rates of micro firm survival and low productivity in manufacturing sectors.

This paper seeks to fill gaps in the literature with respect to recent firm-level productivity dynamics in Zambia. Research on productivity in Zambia tends to focus on macroeconomic data (World Bank 2024, World Bank 2019b) or rely on Economic Census data, which were last collected in 2012 and do not constitute a panel (Merotto 2017). Although Hoy, et al. (2022) do analyze more recent tax data—indeed, the same Corporate Income Tax database that this paper leverages—their research focus is more narrowly on firm performance during COVID-19. Enriching the understanding of such firm-level productivity dynamics would allow for a deeper understanding of the drivers and constraints of productivity, job creation, and wages, differentiating between the contributions of economy-wide issues, structural change between sectors, within-sector market dynamics, and within-firm technical efficiency (Cusolito and Maloney 2018). This could in turn yield more specific policy insights and uncover priorities for further research.

In terms of its methodological approach and key topics of interest, this paper is related to other studies that decompose productivity and job trends within countries utilizing firm-level data. Olley and Pakes (1996), Melitz and Polanec (2015), and Patiño Peña and Ferro (Forthcoming), among others, develop methods for decomposing productivity growth into between-, within-firm, entry, exit, and inter-sectoral components—and applied these methods to the United States and Slovenia, respectively.<sup>3</sup> Similar productivity analyses and decompositions have since been conducted for Côte d’Ivoire (World Bank 2021a), Croatia (World Bank 2022a), Ecuador (Patiño Peña and Ferro Forthcoming), Kosovo (World Bank 2021b), and Türkiye (World Bank 2019a), among other countries. Findings vary widely across countries,

> 2 This paper is a background technical note on which the third chapter of World Bank (2024) is based, whereas the first two chapters were authored in parallel
, X. Gao, and LG. Ferreira (2002) “Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices,” _Remote Sensing of Environment_ , 83, 195–213.

- Hulley, Glynn, Sarah Shivers, Erin Wetherley, and Robert Cudd (2019) “New ECOSTRESS and MODIS land surface temperature data reveal fine-scale heat vulnerability in cities: A case study for Los Angeles County, California,” _Remote Sensing_ , 11 (18), 2136.

- IPCC (2022) “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Sixth Assessment Report,” `https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPCC_ AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf` .

- Kazianga, Harounan and Christopher Udry (2006) “Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso,” _Journal of Development economics_ , 79 (2), 413–446.

- Knippenberg, Erwin and John Hoddinott (2019) “Shocks, social protection, and resilience: Evidence from Ethiopia,” _Gates Open Res_ , 3 (702), 702.

- Letta, Marco, Pierluigi Montalbano, and Richard S.J. Tol (2018) “Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: Evidence from rural Tanzania,” _World Development_ , 112, 13–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.07.013.

- Lokshin, Michael (2006) “Difference-based semiparametric estimation of partial linear regression models,” _Stata Journal_ , 6, 377–383.

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seminal quantitative models of sovereign default. Until recently, this literature assumed risk-neutral investors and sovereign risk premia that solely reflect the expected losses from default (e.g., Aguiar and Gopinath 2006; Arellano 2008; Mendoza and Yue 2012). When investors are risk-neutral, excess return above “risk-free” bonds should be zero in expectation. Yet, we find real excess returns that are in the range of 2% to 4% ex-post for the full global sample, although there is considerable time variation. Thus, investors typically receive a compensatory premium for holding sovereign risk that exceeds historical credit losses. This finding gives support to a growing body of quantitative work that assumes risk-averse (or uncertainty averse) creditors in this market.<sup>11</sup> The high returns we observe cannot be easily explained by historical default and recovery rates. Using our new default and restructuring database, we show that sovereign defaults do not usually wipe out the claims of private creditors. Almost all the defaults over the past 200 years have been solved by a debt exchange of old into new debt at a discount – with an average haircut of 44% and a standard deviation of

> Compared to these studies, we zoom in on one asset class and cover 91 countries, 200 years at monthly frequency, and instrument-level data.

> 11 See Barro’s discussion of rare disasters with Epstein-Zin preferences (Barro 2006) and, more recently, Broner, Lorenzoni, and Schmukler (2013), Lizarazo (2013), Borri and Verdelhan (2015), Aguiar et al. (2016), Grosse Steffen and Podstawski (2016), Pouzo and Presno (2016), and Asonuma and Joo (2018).

3
expected profit from a vacant job in sector _i_ , and _Ji_ ( _y_<sup>_′_</sup> _, y_ ) be the present-discounted value of expected profit from a filled job in sector _i_ with a worker of type _y_ and match-specific productivity _y_<sup>_′_</sup> .

Firms in sector _i_ open vacancies and search among the pool of job seekers, which involves a hiring cost _c_ , assumed to be constant.<sup>40</sup> They also face some uncertainty when meeting a job seeker, since they do not know with certainty the type of worker they will meet, and conditional on type, how productive that worker will be at the job.

> 38I assume the benefit from social assistance is proportional to the informal-sector wage. For the case of Colombia, _δ_ 3 corresponds to allocated health expenditures in the Subsidized Regime program as percentage of nominal wage. However, not all workers receive the subsidy: only those workers whose families are categorized as “poor” as determined by a Poverty Index Score, using the Census of the Poor (SISBEN).

> 39I am assuming that employee valuations of these services may be lower, equal or higher than in the SS system ( _μ < τ_ , _μ_ = _τ_ , _μ > τ_ ), depending on the perception of the efficiency of the services provided by the public sector. In the case where _μ_ = 0, informal workers do not value the services offered by the government. In this case, any change in subsidized health expenditures, _δ_ 3, will not change the flow income in the informal sector. If _μ >_ 0, an expansion in subsidized health expenditures will cause a higher flow income in the informal sector with a consequent behavioral impact.

> 40The hiring cost can also depend on productivity or wages over the business cycle, but it is reasonable to assume is constant in the steady state.

12
-> _Source: DANE household study of Bogotá, 2003_

# **3.7 ARE THE UNBANKED BANKABLE?**

31. Given their different socio-economic characteristics, the question has been raised whether the unbanked have “bankable characteristics”. Home ownership rates by the unbanked above 60%, with minimal differences to the level of the banked, illustrate that the unbanked have asset building capacity. Access to formal financial services would therefore provide the unbanked with the opportunity to build financial assets through savings and increase their asset base through access to credit services.

32. The DANE survey shows a high correlation between educational levels and likelihood of being banked or unbanked. At the same time, it is noteworthy that approximately 15% and 25% of the group with less than elementary and elementary school only respectively do have bank accounts in formal sector institutions. This suggests that while 60
_Climate adaptation and energy efficiency._ ECA is an energy-intensive region that relies heavily on non-renewable energy. Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Turkey are implementing policy reforms (such as cost-based energy pricing) and investments in both public infrastructure and private industry, including renewable energy and energy efficiency, in partnership with the World Bank. Efforts to adapt to climate change include improved water resource management (flood protection, water loss reduction, irrigation efficiency) in Kazakhstan; climate-smart agriculture (switching to more resilient crops) in Tajikistan; and better weather forecasting and climate change monitoring in Russia.

_Education and health._ The region has made significant advances in the area of human development, including reductions in child mortality rates. Many countries in the region have achieved universal primary enrollment and gender parity in both primary and secondary education, and literacy rates are high (Figure 13). On average, the ECA region scores above average among EMDE regions in several education and health indicators. Nevertheless, shortcomings remain. Levels of learning achievement are low in several countries, and socio-economic and ethnic disparities in education persist. Among the basic education indicators, regional gaps are most apparent for math and science education. The region scores well below the EMDE average on attracting and retaining talent. Building a highly skilled workforce will require improving the quality of education, investing in on-the-job training, and using talent more effectively.

# **III.3. Which policies can help address investment needs in the ECA region?**

Unmet investment needs, along with governance, financial, and labor market obstacles, limit output growth in the region (World Bank 2015d-g; World Bank and Vietnam 2016; World Bank 2016c; EBDR 2015a). While policy priorities depend on country circumstances, appropriate cyclical and structural policies are needed in all cases to raise investment growth. Fiscal policy could help most directly by expanding public investment while monetary policy could boost activity by lowering financing costs. Structural reforms could address factors holding back private investment, including by boosting productivity and aggregate
10. **Notwithstanding their lower income, education levels, and location, home ownership among the unbanked is high.** 61% of the unbanked in Bogotá own their home, showing a similar level of home ownership than the banked (66%, see figure 3.6). These levels are similar to home ownership rates in the United States (65%). The minimal difference in home-ownership rates for banked and unbanked suggests that access to bank loans is not a limiting factor in accessing homes. The high rate of ownership overall suggests that both unbanked and banked Colombians view their homes as key to their asset-building strategies. The high rate of home ownership among the unbanked indicates their capacity to accumulate assets, and, as a result, to potentially benefit from access to financial services.

**Figure 3. 6  Home-Ownership among the banked and unbanked**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Banked Unbanked<br>6%<br>4%<br>9%<br>13%<br>53% 52%<br>30% 33%<br>Owned by Household, totally paid Owned by Household, totally paid<br>Rented by Household Rented by Household<br>Owned by Household, being paid Owned by Household, being paid<br>Used by household without paying Used by household without paying<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source: DANE household study of Bogotá, 2003_ 11. **The unbanked are further from access to banks than the banked.** The DANE survey does reveal that over 60% of the unbanked either don’t know where a bank branch is in relation to their homes, or report the closest banking institution to be over ten blocks away. In the case of the banked population in Bogotá, 50% of respondents report a distance to the next bank of over 10 blocks or an unknown distance. In particular, 22% of
, we split the results into earlier and later time periods. There is no significant association between employment in low-income

> 12 Results are available in the appendix materials. The results indicate that workers with price decreases in their product market have suffered the largest wage declines, with this pattern most pronounced in routine occupations. Similar to our core results, however, this effect is only observed using occupational exposure measures of import price changes. Special thanks to Lawrence Edwards for generous use of his price series data on imports. Other specifications we have tested include removing measures of TFP and controlling for price changes in the service sector using a CPI/PPI index, both of which provide results similar to those presented in Table 2.
gender norms/violence discussed in greater detail in World Bank, 2008 _People seem to ―live in harmony‖ in the community but violence against women is high._ While perception and knowledge of violence in the community are low, levels of violence within the family seem to be high, based on survey data. The WBGNS 2006 asked questions on spousal violence and found that 24 percent of women in the 45-60 age group and 30 percent of women in 15-25 age group reported ever experiencing violence by their husbands. An even higher proportion - over 43 percent of male heads of households reported ever having been violent to their wives. The extent of violence reported by husbands against their wives is much higher than this in the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2004<sup>6</sup> . Women in the WBGNS 2006 were also asked if they had experienced violence at the hands of anyone else and only 2 percent reported that they had.

Dowry has been increasing in Bangladesh over time and the social norms moved from a regime of bride price to a regime of dowry in over the last two generations surveyed in the WBGNS 2006. It was practically non-existent in the older cohort of women surveyed– only 7.7 percent of these women compared to over 46 percent of younger women had to pay dowry at their weddings. Its increase over time and the ―inflation of dowry rates‖ has also been associated with harassment of the woman and her family for more dowry (as reported in World Bank, 2008). Concomitantly, government and legal aid activists have realized that local dispute resolution systems are needed mainly to address family related matters (Asia Foundation, 2007; Hassan, 2006).. This picture is also in keeping with the type of cases that the major legal aid organizations receive. Thus, about three-fourths of the cases handled by the Bangladesh Legal Aid and Services Trust **(** BLAST) and (Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) are family related (Hassan, 2006).
However, the study by Van Doren, Hoag and Field (1999) finds that committee membership does confer benefits to Senators. They compute PAC spending by sub-sectors of agriculture during 1989–94 with the objective of studying what characteristics of Senators influence the pattern of contributions. They find membership on the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Agriculture, Rural Development and Related Agencies sub-committee of the Senate Appropriations Committee to be the most important determinant. Membership on the Senate Agriculture committee confers the ability to receive $13,000 more in agricultural PAC contributions, and membership on the Appropriations Sub-committee confers an advantage of over $4,000. Some agricultural sub-sectors contribute far more to committee members than do others. The study also finds that while the average legislator only received about 7% of his or her PAC funding from Ag PACs, agricultural committee members receive almost 14% of their PAC funding from Ag PACs. Of all the sub sectors, food manufacturing valued membership to agricultural PACs the most, paying on average $2,332 per year to committee members. Next in line were sugar cane and sugar beet producer PACs, at $1,617, followed by agricultural services at $1,288. Membership to Agriculture Appropriations sub committee also mattered, leading to an aggregate annual contribution of $4,215 more than non-members. Agricultural services PACs were the leaders in this category, paying on average $1,094 more, followed by dairy PACs at $ 891. Van Doren et al. also find the percentage of state under farmland to be a consistent indicator of PAC contributions. Thus with every 1% increase in % farmland, holding everything else constant, the senator from that state could expect to get $124 more per year. Sugar cane and sugar beet ($27) and tobacco ($22) were the highest payers. Dairy producers came in third at $18.

While their estimates are statistically significant, the effects are small relative to the total campaign contribution these committee members receive. The lobbying data