rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
**Figure 1:  Pesticide use in Vietnam, 1990-1999**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 45,000<br>40,000<br>35,000<br>30,000<br>25,000<br>20,000<br>15,000<br>10,000<br>5,000<br>0<br>1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999<br>Metric tons<br><!-- End of picture text --> Expanded applications have been accompanied by widespread use of chemicals that are hazardous for human health and the environment. A nation-wide survey conducted by the PPD in 2000 found 2,500 kg of banned pesticides in use (methamidophos, DDT and other chemicals), along with 4,753 liters and 5,645 kg of illegally imported or counterfeit pesticides (PPD, 2000). Another survey in August 2000, among 480 farmers in four provinces in the South, found that 96.6% used pesticides more intensively than product labels recommended, and nearly 95% of farmers disposed of any remaining pesticide by pouring it into canals or ditches, reapplying it to the same crops, or spraying crops that were not identified for initial use (Huan _et al_ ., 2000).

# **3.  Survey Design**

The health impacts of pesticides are difficult to assess from available secondary data in most countries. Pesticide poisonings documented by health centers represent only a small fraction of actual poisonings, for two main reasons. First, only a small number of severe poisonings (mostly suicide attempts) are treated in the health care system. Many agricultural workers do not report non-lethal cases because of the cost in time or money, inaccessibility of health care services, or fear that drawing attention to themselves may result in the loss of their job. Secondly, the relatively few farmers who do seek treatment 5
temporarily in 2004; however, in 2006 it reached the 2003 level and continued to accelerate in 2007–2008 (Chart 9).

**Chart 9. Net change of loans outstanding to households by currency breakdown**

<!-- Start of picture text --> HUF Bn HUF Bn<br>500 500<br>450 450<br>400 400<br>350 350<br>300 300<br>250 250<br>200 200<br>150 150<br>100 100<br>50 50<br>0 0<br>-50 -50<br>-100 -100<br>Loans from banks - HUF Loans from banks - FX<br>Loans from financial enterprises - HUF Loans from financial enterprises - FX<br>Total lending<br>2003Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: MNB. Note: ―Banks‖ includes banks, branches, and cooperative credit institutions.

A specificity of Hungarian foreign currency lending was the fact that loans to households were almost exclusively denominated in CHF (Chart 10). In an attempt to secure the largest possible market share, foreign-owned banks initially entered into cost-based competition, which was subsequently replaced by risk-based competition. CHF-denominated loans gained ground as a result of risk-based competition (Banai et al., 2010a). Looking at the data recorded before October 2008 (the escalation of the crisis), the HUF/EUR exchange rate was only slightly less volatile than that of the Swiss franc. In contrast, Swiss interest rate levels were invariably lower than those prevailing in the euro area. Based on the former data, the lower initial installment amount associated with the lower interest rate appeared attractive even amid slightly higher exchange rate volatility. However, this ignores the fact that the Swiss franc had appreciated continuously since
(iii) international trade relative to GDP, and (iv) demographic composition as captured by the age dependency ratio.

Per-capita income as a proxy of the level of development of a country’s economy is positively related to revenue potential. This is so because both the capacity to collect and the ability and willingness of taxpayers to pay taxes tend to increase with higher development (Gupta 2007; Khwaja and Iyer 2014). In addition, higher levels of income are typically associated with greater demand for public goods and services (Le et al. 2008). This, in turn, may strengthen “demand” for higher revenues to finance public services. These views are supported by a large body of empirical evidence of a strong positive relationship between revenues and GDP per capita, including in developing countries (Stotsky and Wolde-Mariam 1997; Ghura 1998; Piancastelli 2001; Le et al. 2008). In our data set, there is a clear positive correlation between revenues and GDP per capita that is consistent with these findings (see Figure 2 in Section III).

The sectoral composition of output matters for revenue mobilization because certain sectors of the economy are easier to tax than others. In particular, the share of agriculture in GDP is considered to be negatively related to revenue potential, especially if it is dominated by a large number of subsistence farmers which are considered a “hard-to-tax” group (Gupta 2007; Le et al. 2008).<sup>5</sup> In accordance with this view, many empirical studies find that the share of agriculture in GDP is significantly negatively related to revenues (Leuthold 1991; Tanzi 1992; Piancastelli 2001; Le et al. 2012) or, alternatively, that the share of industry and service is positively related to revenues (Khwaja and Iyer 2014). As shown in Figure 2, there is a negative correlation between revenues and the share of agriculture in GDP in our data that is consistent with these findings.

In addition, more international trade relative to GDP
Policy Research Working Paper 8918

# **Abstract**

New representative survey data for Harare, Zimbabwe are used to analyze the conditions under which informal businesses encounter requests for bribes. A simple model develops basic expectations of bribe exposure: those with higher opportunity costs of formalizing and with a higher ability to pay (resources) are expected to face a higher bribe risk. Empirical results find that informal businesses operating out of necessity are likelier to have a bribe demanded of them. Robustness checks are performed to account for the endogeneity of the main regressors, through a bivariate probit specification, using an instrumental variable of whether an informal business owner started in the area of activity before the country’s 2009 dollarization. Limited significant results are found for the effect of revenues (ability to pay).

This paper is a product of the Global Indicators Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at dfrancis@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
For example, we do not know what are the tasks for which computers or Internet are used or how are these technologies being used in production. To address this issue, the next section explores and measures the purpose for which technologies adopted by firms are used.

# **3 New Measures of Technology Adoption and Use: Linking Technologies to Business Functions**

To identify the purpose for which a technology is used by the firm, we link the information on the use of technology with specific business functions. We follow the methodology proposed by Cirera, Comin, and Cruz (2020) and split business functions in two groups: i) General Business Functions, which are common tasks that apply to all firms (e.g. business administration, sales, payment, quality control); and ii) Sector Specific Business Functions, which varies across each sector and is usually more related to core production functions.

The General Business Support Functions (GBFs) are commonly available across all firms, irrespective of the industries they are in. Therefore, they provide good comparison across firms, sectors and countries. The FAT survey identifies the purpose for which a given technology is being applied. Figure 4 describes the key GBFs covered by the survey and the technologies associated with them: 1) Business Administration; 2) Production Planning; 3) Sourcing and Procurement; 4) Marketing and Customer Information; 5) Sales; 6) Methods of Payment; and 7) Quality Control. The technologies associated with most business functions follow a ladder of sophistication that goes from the most basic (e.g. handwritten process for production planning) to the most sophisticated level (e.g. Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems for production planning).

The Sector Specific Business Functions (SSBFs) are tasks that are associated with the core production or service provision activity and vary across sectors. The FAT survey in Senegal has specific sets of questionnaires for 8 sectors: i) Agriculture (Crops, Fruits, and Vegetables);
> assumed. Enforcement techniques will probably<sup>improve in the future, reducing</sup> these leakages, but the expansion of the nonstate<sup>and informal sectors will have</sup> the opposite effect, so as a baseline the<sup>continuation of the 25% noncompliance</sup> rate is probably not unreasonable. It is<sup>also modest by comparison with other low</sup> and middle income countries, where workers<sup>often qualify for benefits despite the</sup> fact that their enterprises have not paid<sup>the full contributions; this raises the</sup> break-even contribution rate, possibly inducing<sup>greater evasion. Obviously, if</sup> China is able to reduce its noncompliance rate, this would correspondingly improve the financial situation of its<sup>pension system. One of the best ways to</sup> do so is to choose a system that costs<sup>less and reduces incentives to evade.</sup>

**1** These projections assume increasing<sup>life expectancy, while the Chinese</sup> have used projections which do not take this<sup>into account. Therefore, our data</sup> show a continuing increase in the demographic dependency<sup>rate (Table 1) while the</sup> Chinese data imply a levelling off after 2030.

2 In addition to the economy-wide wage<sup>growth, which is uniform for all</sup> cohorts, we assume that for the first<sup>30 years of working life the worker</sup> receives a wage increase for experience and on-the-job<sup>training of 1% per year.</sup> While age-earnings profiles have been realtively<sup>flat in China in the past, they</sup> will probably become steeper in the future, as the<sup>transition to a market economy</sup
must originate from vessels’ authorized fishing areas in order to contribute toward vessels’ subsidies (Ministry of Agriculture, 2012).

We do not observe VMS pings because the MOA considers these data to be confidential. Instead, we define a subsidy day as a day in which we observe at least one ping from a vessel’s Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder, which are publicly available

> 8These regulations are renovation and reconstruction subsidies and vessel standardization regulations (Sections 5.2.2 and 5.3). We also support the assumption that vessels in our regressions did not choose their characteristics with respect to subsidy thresholds by providing evidence against bunching just above subsidy thresholds (Section 5.2.2).

> 9China’s blacklisting policy began in 2017 (Zhang, 2018). We do not find evidence that this policy induced selection into fuel subsidies. While 26 vessels are blacklisted for at least one year of our data, none of them fall within the optimal bandwidth of our preferred specification (Column 1 of Table 3). The data on blacklisted companies and vessels are from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (2018a, 2018b, 2019a, 2019b).

> 10In cases where the countries visited by fishing vessels forbade vessel location surveillance equipment, Chinese distant water fishing vessels are required to install Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders (Ministry of Agriculture, 2014a).

8
0.9 percent of GDP (cash basis) was achieved for 2002. With domestic demand depressed, the external current account surplus soared to nearly 10 percent of GDP (including interest on nonperforming debt, but not interest on arrears).<sup>36</sup> In broad terms, macroeconomic policy was “conservative” in terms of regaining control of the money supply, bringing down inflation and increasing primary surpluses.<sup>37</sup> This process continued through 2003. External conditions also began to improve, in 2003, as the terms of trade (See Figure 2 and Table 2) began to improve sharply. In addition, the removal of the burden of external debt service payments also assisted the recovery. Economic growth reached nearly 9 percent in 2003. In May of that year, President Nestor Kirchner entered office under these favorable conditions. Consumer confidence also soared, as displayed in Figure 3.

**Table 2:  Basic Macroeconomic Indicators, 1980-2014, %** (period averages)

||1980-1991|1992-2001|2002-2014|
|---|---|---|---|
|Inflation|744.3|3.6|12.5*|
|GDP growth|0.0|2.8|4.4**|
|Terms of Trade|83.9|96.4|120.0|

*Disputed data in recent years. **5.7 percent, excluding 2002.

Source: WDI and WEO databases.

<!-- Start of picture text --> Figure 2: GDP per capita and Net Barter Terms of Trade, 1990 to 2013<br>210 140<br>200<br>130<br>190<br>180 Real Per Capita GDP (1990=100; LHS)<br>120<br>170<br>Net Barter Terms of Trade (2000=100; RHS)<br>160 Global Financial
and evidence on the impact of food prices on poverty and welfare. Section III discusses data and methods. Section IV tests the relationship between changes in food prices and changes in prices (both domestic and international). Section V explores likely explanations of this result, namely, agricultural supply and wage responses to higher food prices. Section VI provides some cautious interpretation of the results.

# II. THEORY AND EVIDENCE TO DATE

The workhorse model of research into food prices and economic welfare has undoubtedly been Deaton’s (1989) net benefit ratio approach. In this partial equilibrium approach, the decisive influence on welfare outcomes is whether a household is a net consumer or net producer of food. Applications of this approach in recent years have almost invariably found that most poor households in developing countries are net consumers of food such that higher food prices are expected to increase poverty in the short run (Ivanic and Martin 2008, 2011, 2014; De Hoyos and Medvedev 2009).

Despite the consistency of this finding across different samples of countries, several critiques have emerged. First, the suitability of household surveys for accurately measuring net benefit ratios is questionable (Headey and Fan 2008, 2010; Carletto 2012). Consumption estimates typically employ short recall modules (typically from one to two weeks) that are then annualized to match up with annual recalls on agricultural production. Yet, recent World Bank research shows that both food consumption and food production estimates suffer from large biases (Beegle et al. 2012;

> 2. Jacoby (2013) conducts both a simulation analysis and an econometric analysis, but his econometric estimates of wage responses to higher food prices cover a five-year period and thus do not shed light on the speed of wage adjustment within that period, which is surely an important welfare concern.

3
.ethanolrfa.org/pages/annual-industry-outlook.

- RGCREDS(Research group on China renewable energy development strategy). 2008. China renewable energy development strategy. Beijing:China Electricity Publishing (in Chinese).

- RGCMLEDS (Research group for China medium- and long term energy development strategy). 2011a. Medium and long term energy development strategy in China: electricity,oil& gas, nuclear and environment. Beijing: Science Press(in Chinese).

- RGCMLEDS (Research group for China medium- and long term energy development strategy). 2011b. Medium and long term energy development strategy in China: Renewable energy. Beijing: Science Press(in Chinese).

- SFA (State of Forestry Administration). 2009. China forestry resource report: the seventh forestry resource survey. Beijing: China forestry press (in Chinese).

- SFA (State of Forestry Administration). 2010. China forestry statistical yearbook 2010. Beijing: China Forestry

25
area is included in the agreement, HMS count provisions that reconfirm existing obligations and/or add substantive new disciplines as being covered. Hence, there is no distinction between the two scenarios in the final results presented, as coverage gives no further indications on the depth of a provision. In this respect, WTO+ provisions could really be defined as “WTO plus or equal”.

> 8 The PTA coverage in Kohl et al. (2016) also includes agreements that were not notified to the WTO.

> 9 The policy areas covered in Dür et al (2014) are market access, services, investments, intellectual property rights, competition, public procurement, standards, trade remedies, non‐trade issues, and dispute settlement.

> 10 The information on notified and in force preferential agreements comes from the WTO, Regional Trade Agreements Information System (RTA‐IS); http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicMaintainRTAHome.aspx.

> 11 The database includes 260 trade agreements and 19 partial scope agreements (PSA).

> 12 See Table 1 for a list of the policy areas. See also Annex A Table A 1 for a more detailed description of each policy and what it covers.

5
incomes out to 2030 for each country.<sup>20</sup> Finally, to complete our baseline specification, we assume there is zero growth in _σ_ so that _σi,_ 2030 = _σi,T_ (i.e., inequality is equal to the latest reported value for each country).<sup>21</sup> Next, we consider four counterfactual scenarios relative to our baseline scenario: (1) inequality declines by 1% per-annum over 2020-2030 while mean incomes follow baseline trajectory; (2) inequality increases by 1% per-annum over 2020-2030 while mean incomes follow baseline trajectory; (3) mean incomes increase by 1% per-annum over 2020-2030 relative to their baseline trajectory while inequality remains constant at baseline value; and (4) mean incomes decrease by 1% per-annum over 2020-2030 relative to their baseline trajectory while inequality remains constant at baseline value. World headcount poverty rates by year are presented in Figure VIII under our baseline scenario and our counterfactual scenarios. Moreover, regional poverty rates for 2030 under our baseline and alternative scenarios are presented in Table III.

TABLE III: Poverty Projections for 2030 Under Various Scenarios

||B|(1)|(2)|(3)<br>(4)|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|Region|Baseline|1% decr. _σ_|1% incr. _σ_|1% incr. ̄_y_<br>1% decr. ̄_y_|
|EAP|0.73|0.37|1.30|0.53<br>0.99|
|ECA|0.15|0.06|0.35|0.09<br>0.23|
|LAC|2.74|1.30|5.13|2.11<br>3.52|
|MNA|4.40|3.60|5.63|
>subsidies for high-income<br>households, and provide<br>more generous subsidies<br>for low-income households|
|Muehlegger &<br>Rapson (2018)|United States|2012-2018|Disadvantaged community<br>designations, program<br>rebate data, transaction-<br>level data on the universe of<br>new and used EVs<br>purchased by California<br>buyers|OLS, using the count of<br>EFMP transactions as<br>an IV|EV demand by low- and<br>middle-income households<br>is price elastic, and that the<br>pass-through of the<br>subsidy is complete among<br>these consumers|
|Allcott et al<br>(2015)||Various|Various surveys from<br>different sources|OLS|Efficiency gains from<br>“tagging’’are larger when|

49
Policy Research Working Paper 9308

# **Abstract**

This paper reviews the emerging big data literature applied to urban transportation issues from the perspective of economic research. It provides a typology of big data sources relevant to transportation analyses and describes how these data can be used to measure mobility, associated externalities, and welfare impacts. As an application, it showcases the use of daily traffic conditions data in various developed and developing country cities to estimate the causal impact of stay-at-home orders during the Covid-19 pandemic on traffic congestion in Bogotá, New Dehli, New York, and Paris. In light of the advances in big data analytics, the paper concludes with a discussion on policy opportunities and challenges.

This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at hselod@worldbank.org and ssoumahoro@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
# **<mark>A3. Appendix 3 – Event Studies T-5 to T+5</mark>**

The below are country-fixed-effects event studies following the methodology of Gourinchas and Obstfeld (2012). They should be read as deviations from country long term means of the enunciated variable. All but one of the variables are first differences (in percentage terms), so the appropriate interpretation for them is X percentage points below or above country long-term average percent change. For Poverty Headcounts, the variable is already in ratio form. Therefore, the appropriate interpretation should be X percentage points over country long-term average poverty headcount ratio. The results from this exercise are compatible with our findings above using SCMs.

46
<!-- Start of picture text --> 0 10 20 30 40<br>months since connection<br>pre-experiment data model<br>2<br>1.5<br>log consumption 1<br>.5<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Notes:_ The solid line plots average log piped water consumption for each month since connection using data from September 2012 to December 2015. The dashed line does the same for model-generated consumption. In both cases, we display predicted margins from a regression of log consumption on month of connection dummies, estimated preferences, and month _×_ year fixed effects. Bars denote 95% confidence intervals for the predicted margins using the actual data.

Figure 4: Actual vs. model-generated pre-experiment log consumption 27