rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
institutions and regulations across countries.

Recently, the World Bank started to publish results from their Doing Business project (World Bank 2004). The Doing Business database provides objective measures of business regulations and their enforcement. The Doing Business indicators are comparable across economies and indicate the regulatory costs of business. They allow us to obtain information on regulatory outcomes, such as time and money spent on bureaucratic procedures, and thus to investigate the efficiency of the government institutions in place. By focusing on evidence 6
Policy Research Working Paper 9736

# **Abstract**

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on children’s school resilience. Using an individual fixed-effect linear probability model on Nigeria data, it exploits the quasi-randomness of these measures to estimate their effect on school attendance after the lockdown was lifted. The results show that COVID-19 lockdown measures reduced children’s probability of attending school after the school system reopened. This negative impact increased with children’s age, reaching a peak among those whose education was no longer compulsory. For schoolchildren in that age group, the negative effect of COVID-19 lockdown measures is likely to be permanent, which, if not reversed, will undermine the quality of the economy-wide future labor force. The paper also finds evidence that in the child marriage-prone North-West part of Nigeria that these measures increased gender inequality in education among children aged 12 to 18. This result suggests that COVID19 lockdown measures may exacerbate harmful traditional practices such as child marriage.

This paper is a product of the Development Data Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at mtiberti@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the
potential selection bias, having familiarity with the concept of innovation and the gender of the respondent are not significant predictor of providing a wrong answer in the short questionnaire. The main results suggest that a lack of quality in the interview, represented by the number of enumerators supervised by the same supervisor, increases the likelihood of inaccuracy; whether if the firm pays informal payments decrease the likelihood of inaccuracy. Furthermore, size is inversely correlated with inaccuracy with larger firms being more likely to correctly report innovation in the short questionnaire. Other unexplained factors appear to play an important role in explaining such inaccuracy.

# **6. Conclusions**

This paper shows the results of a survey experiment aiming to identify the best survey instrument for measuring innovation in developing countries. The results from the experiment are clear: a few short questions in a more general firm‐level survey do not provide an accurate picture of firm‐level innovation activity. This result confirms the findings of studies conducted for more advanced countries such as Norway or Belgium that suggest that shorter surveys tend to overestimate firm level innovation rates. More context to the questions is likely to be needed; although the innovation rates found in the longer questionnaire, which attempts to provide more context, also requires substantial cleaning and are unreasonably high given the level of development of the countries in the study.

The paper also tries to understand empirically what factors could explain the inaccurate responses to the short questionnaire and the fact that a significant number of firms provide different responses to the same question across questionnaires; sometimes even when the same respondent answered the questionnaire. Results show that lack of knowledge does not seem to play a key role in explaining inaccuracies, as neither the use of explanatory cards nor the experience of the respondent seem to matter. It is also unclear how personal incentives affect the accuracy of response rates. We find that a lower quality interview is more likely to produce inaccurate responses, while whether the firm reports the payment of informal payments and the size of the firm are likely to
|Public or|56|39|52|32|−3|0.9|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|private facility|(_N_=|(_N_=|(_N_=|(_N_= 81)||(0.4–|
||533)|282)|292)|||2.1)|

_<mark>Source:</mark>_ <mark>Population Council, Household Survey 2010–11</mark> a Based on differences in changes in proportions that paid for delivery services: negative sign means the change was greater in the comparison group.

b Based on multilevel logit models with interaction terms; 95 percent confidence intervals are in parentheses (* _P_ <0.05).

The proportion of women who paid for delivery of the most recent birth in any health facility (public or private) declined by 17 percentage points in villages with a voucher client and by 20 percentage points in villages with no voucher client at follow-up between 2008 and 2010– 11 (table 5). The difference-in-differences estimate from the multilevel logit model was not statistically significant.

# **<<B>>** Socioeconomic Inequities

A difference of 11 percentage points was seen between births to poor mothers and births to nonpoor mothers who made four or more ANC visits in villages with a voucher client at follow-up (table 6). In villages with no voucher client, a difference of 15 percentage points was seen. Although the gap was greater between poor and nonpoor women in villages without a voucher client compared with villages with such a client, the difference-in-differences estimate from the multilevel logit model was not statistically significant.

The results further show that the proportion of births to poor women who were delivered at a private facility was greater in villages with a voucher client compared with villages with no voucher client (table 6)
commodity exports represented 15.2% of GDP in 2008–2012, so we normalize the steady-state non-resource quarterly GDP s ) to 1 and set resource GDP ( s ) to 0.2 such that ZZ RR s s s ) ≈ 15%. The degree of openness is calibrated so that steady-state (YY YY RR RR ZZ consumption of foreign goods is equivalent to 40% of GDP ( , based on YY /(YY + YY the median imports-to-GDP ratio in SSA during in 2000–2018 (see Appendix αα= 0.4)

> 20 Panel B of Appendix Table 1 displays the list of countries in SSA with available export data from the UN Comtrade Database. Column (1) shows the average commodity exports in 2008–2012 as a percent of GDP. Columns (3)–(8) display the two main commodities exported by each country and their respective shares of GDP.

13
US imports in 2016:

> 11We do not remove sectors 111 and 112 from the BGT data for two reasons. First, the measure described in the text still accounts for the tariffs in these sectors, even if they are allocated to slightly different NAICS codes when conducting the employment weightings. Second, the coverage and accuracy of the sector classifications in the BGT data is much weaker than the county classification and hence it’s unclear that we would be able to convincingly isolate and remove postings within these particular sectors. The classification issue comes from the challenge of assigning a sector to the data scraped from a job posting (i.e. job postings will almost never provide NAICS codes inside the associated text).

16
Policy Research Working Paper 8803

# **Abstract**

This paper offers new evidence on the relationship between contractual institutions, family management, and aggregate performance. The study creates a new firm-level database on management and ownership structures spanning 134 regions in 11 European countries. To guide the empirical analysis, it develops a model of industry equilibrium in which heterogeneous firms decide between family and professional management when the latter are subject to contracting frictions. The paper tests the model’s predictions using regional variation in trust within countries.

Consistent with the model, the finding show that there is sorting of firms across management modes, in which smaller firms and those in regions with worse contracting environments are more likely to be family managed. These firms are on average 25 percent less productive than professionally managed firms, and moving from the country with the least reliable contracting environment to the most increases total factor productivity by 21.6 percent. Family management rather than ownership drives these results.

This paper is a product of the Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Vice Presidency. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/research. The authors may be contacted at wmaloney@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by
official income-test has a very high error of exclusion (those who are actually poor are not receiving the benefit). Partly this originates from the very different goal of these prograns, which is to promote housing privatization, and partly it may originate from a lack of consideration of other factors related to poverty which are not captured in official income.

In order to improve means-testing where it currently exists, and to revise and update the categorical approach overall, we estimate an expanded welfare equation with variables added for official income (wages and social transfers) and for ownership of household durables. The data in Table 19 shows that the proxy means test was able to identify correctly the poverty/non-poverty status of approximately 65-75 percent of the population, with all three countries having better predictions for the non-poor than for the poor. Only about 60 percent (57-62) of the poor were identified correctly, but this still represent a significant improvement over the previous single-indicator/categorical approach used to allocate benefits such as old-age pensions and student stipends.<sup>2</sup> ' At first glance, the five best predictors for the FSU countries seem to be more related to the non-poor side of the spectrum (wage income, car, color TV, household business, university education, land ownership) as to the poor (transfer income). The addition of the next five (best ten total) predictors shows a mixture of factors associated

> 21 Analysis of individual countries (Russia, Kyrgyz Republic) in World Bank poverty assessments and comparative analyses (Knumn, Milanovic, and Walton 1994) found that in general, only child allowances were well-targeted transfers in FSU countries. All other transfers were regressive or highly regressive.

93
Lopez, Ricardo A. (2005), “Trade and Growth: Reconciling the Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Evidence,” _Journal of Economic Surveys_ , 19(4): 623-648.

Matsuura, K. & Willmott, C. J. (2012a). Terrestrial Air Temperature: 1900-2010 Gridded Monthly Time Series (V 3.01), ~ <u>http://climate.geog.udel.edu/ climate/html_pages/Global2011/README.GlobalTsT2011.html</u> Matsuura, K. & Willmott, C. J. (2012b). Terrestrial Precipitation: 1900-2010 Gridded Monthly Time Series (V 3.01), ~ <u>http://climate.geog.udel.edu/ climate/html_pages/Global2011/README.GlobalTsP2011.html</u> McKee, Thomas B., Nolan J. Doesken, and John Kleist. (1993), “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales.” _Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology_ . Vol. 17. No. 22. Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society.

Moyo, Busani (2011), “Do Water Cuts Affect Productivity? Case Study of African Manufacturing Firms,” _Water SA_ 37(3): 349-356 Neves, Josemir (2015), “Package ‘SPI’” February 2015. URL: https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/spi/spi.pdf Olley, G. Steven and Ariel Pakes (1996), “The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry” _Econometrica_ 64(5): 1263-1297.

Pless, Jacquelyn, and Harrison Fell (2017), “Bribes, Bureaucracies, and Blackouts: Towards Understanding How Corruption at the Firm Level Impacts Electricity Reliability,” _Resource and Energy Economics_ 47: 36-55.

Roller, Lars-Hendrik and Leonard Waverman (2001), “Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach.” _American Economic Review_ , American Economic Association, 91(
(Paxson and Schady), which show that the targeting of FONCODES investments to the poor improved over time.<sup>28</sup>

|**Table 6: The magnitude of political and poverty effects on the distribut**<br>FONCODES**expenditures on community-based projects, November 1**|**ion of per capita**<br>**993-March 1995**|
|---|---|
|(i)<br>(n)|(iii)|
|**Decrease in the pro-Fujimori**<br>**vote**<br>15.80<br>22.43|33.62|
|In (FONCODES index)<br>75.44<br>42.53||

# **6. Conclusion**

This paper uses formal econometric modeling and a rich, highly disaggregated data set to analyze the effect of elections on the timing and distribution of expenditures made by the Peruvian Social Fund between 1991 and 1995. One important advantage of this approach is that it allows for a parsing out of the political and technical influences on FONCODES expenditures. I argue that there is a large, significant effect of elections on the timing and distribution of FONCODES expenditures. Expenditures were boosted before national elections; community-based projects were channeled to provinces where the political returns where expected to be large.

The results in this paper show that FONCODES has clearly been responsive to political imperatives. Indeed, FONCODES was arguably very well suited for President Fujimori's electoral ambitions. Unlike most programs conducted by the line ministries in Peru, FONCODES expenditures are truly discretionary: since 1993, FONCODES has had a backlog of thousands of project proposals which could be funded at opportune times, in provinces deemed to be electorally important. Polls suggest that FONCODES projects are closely identified with the presidency and with President Fujimori himself (Moncada, p. 62).

But FONCODES also appears to have had an important
the world.”<sup>19</sup> For example, In Dar es Salaam, an estimated 70 percent of all travel is done on foot and roughly 20 percent is by minibus.

In African cities, residents lack access to efficient and affordable transit systems and are thus forced to live close to the city center. In contrast, cities like Barcelona, London, Washington DC and Paris all have extensive and proficient transport systems. Barcelona has a population of 1.6 million, similar in size to Dar es Salaam’s 1.4 million, but in Barcelona 33 percent of commuters rely on public transportation, while in Dar es Salaam only 5 percent of its residents use public transit. As a result, the gradients in Figure 2 show African cities have a steeper decline in population density than the European cities in Figure 2 with well‐developed transport infrastructure. While all the cities seem to follow a monocentric model, in Africa density drops off more dramatically than in European and Asian cities.

In a smartly planned well‐functioning monocentric city, one would expect to see a high peak in population density near the city center, followed by a gradual decline moving away from the city center. A strong and far reaching urban transit system allows residents to efficiently and affordably reach jobs and amenities that might be many miles from their homes. This gives residents the freedom to live in the periphery of the city and still benefit from the job opportunities in the urban core. In European cities a high proportion of central and peripheral land is dedicated to transport, in contrast African cities tend to have a much lower share of land used for transport with a rapid decline near the edges of the city. The land cover charts shown in Figure 3 provide a visualization of how the share in land cover changes as one moves to either the north or south of the city center. In Paris, roughly 16% of the land within 10kms of the CBD is dedicated to paved roads. In urban planning literature
26. As Figure 8 shows, the reported incidence of floods, mudslides, fires, and other such natural disasters is much higher in Tajikistan than Kazakhstan (22.8 vs. 1.4 percent). However, recent meteorological records indicate that changes in average temperatures have been of fairly similar magnitude in the two countries.<sup>16</sup> Furthermore, a much larger share of the population of Kazakhstan lives in areas with harsh winters, so the pattern of reported incidence of adverse impacts of climate related hazards across the two countries is in fact the opposite to what one has expected _a priori_ . A much higher share of respondents in Tajikistan report having suffered extreme hot/cold seasons that were harmful for health than in Kazakhstan (62 vs. 23 percent) or unpredictable and extreme weather that harmed agricultural production (42 vs. 9 percent). The differences in exposure to adverse climate effects alone cannot explain large disparities in respondents’ answers suggesting that there are pronounced differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the two countries. As is widely highlighted in the literature on likely climate-change impacts, countries with higher incomes, stronger institutions, developed infrastructure and public services are more resilient to the negative physical impacts of climate. In 2007, the per capita gross national income (GNI) of Tajikistan ($460) was less than one-tenth the GNI of Kazakhstan ($5,060).

# **Priorities for Additional Spending for Climate-Change Adaptation**

27. Respondents were asked the question: Suppose the government had a sizeable sum of money to soften climate change impact on people in your community, or communities like yours: on which of the following do you think the government should spend more money? More than half the P-LITS 2 sample in Tajikistan identified “improving extension services and providing seeds more resilient to climate extremes” (64 percent of respondents), “providing clean drinking water” (63 percent of respondents), and “investing in increasing availability of electricity” (57 percent
a relative success, in lower-income countries their performance has still lagged behind expectations, with c-efficiency ratios (which measure collection relative to potential) in Africa far below other regions (Figure 5).<sup>15</sup> Corporate tax collection continues to be plagued by extensive and poorly managed exemptions, despite decades of international pressure for enhanced transparency, and recent estimates suggest that revenue losses as a result of international tax evasion and avoidance are larger as a share of GDP in developing countries than in OECD member states.<sup>16</sup> Meanwhile, institutional reforms aimed at strengthening IT systems,<sup>17</sup> limiting political interference, reducing corruption,<sup>18</sup> and improving transparency and expanding engagement<sup>19</sup> have frequently underperformed. Finally, surveys reveal that trust in tax systems remains sharply limited, undermining compliance and the potential for constructing broader political support for reform (Figure 3, above).<sup>20</sup>

# **Figure 4: Composition of tax revenue in developing and OECD countries, 1990-2016**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Developing Countries OECD Countries<br>25 25<br>20 20<br>15 15<br>10 10<br>5 5<br>0 0<br>1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015<br>Trade Tax GST CIT PIT Trade Tax GST CIT PIT<br><!-- End of picture text --> _Source:_ ICTD /UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset

> _prospects_ . Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute for Land Policy; van den Boogaard, V., Prichard, W., & Jibao, S. (2018). Informal taxation in Sierra Leone: Magnitudes, perceptions and implications. _African Affairs_ 118(471): 259–284.

> 15 Keen, M. (2013). The anatomy of
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.... ..<br>--60%<br>Asia Africa iaUn America Asia Africa Latin America<br>I Deast Drop Region Average 7 Most Drop<br>Source: see Annex<br><!-- End of picture text --> Figure 2 Retail Price Changes in Constant Local Currency 7. Since the drop in international oil product prices have been much more dramatic than retail price cuts, the financial viability of RETs has not been affected nearly as much as the economics have been. For this reason, the analyses of Chapter 2 focus on the economics of renewable energy technologies.

Figures based on retail oil product price changes in fourteen countries (see Annex).

**4/**