rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
point estimates of poverty mobility based on the synthetic panels. However, this approach relies on the key assumption that the residual terms of the income equations in two periods are distributed according to a bivariate normal distribution.

To avoid the strong distribution assumption for residual or error correlation estimates, Lucchetti et al. (2020) introduce a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator method with multiple imputations by Predictive Mean Matching (LASSO-PMM) for constructing synthetic panels. Among the several advantages this method has over those above, a very important one is that it does not require estimating any error correlation terms or assuming a certain distribution of residuals in the underlying regressions. As mentioned by Ñopo (2004), matching avoids any parametric assumptions that may impose restrictions on the behavior of the random variables involved in the analysis. The LASSO-PMM method allows for obtaining point estimates as well as upper and lower bounds of welfare dynamics. This penalized regression method uses regularization and takes advantage of machine learning techniques to minimize the mean square error (MSE) of predictions. As a result, it allows for the estimation of more accurate welfare predictions outside the estimation sample compared to traditional regression models, since variables and model selection are performed automatically by penalizing the coefficients and crossvalidation (Tibshirani, 1996). Lucchetti et al (2020) found that the LASSO-PMM predictions are statistically indistinguishable from actual poverty rates, transitions, and income changes calculated using 4
country during the reference period.

Finally, we investigate the impacts of a severe drought experienced in 2005. Several parts of Central and Southern Mozambique recorded large rainfall deficits. The most severe dry spells happened in January and February, overlapping with critical stages of planting and crop development in affected areas. Large crop losses, particularly of maize, led to weak food security conditions. We measure the intensity and location parameters of this drought using the one-month

> 4 <mark>Gust wind speed is the more accurate information that can be used to measure the intensity and timing of storms and hurricanes. Gusts winds are measured as the average wind speed over a 2-3 seconds period. Using gust windspeed for this study requires data on the exact time (day/hour/minute/second) of the maximum windspeed to accurately track the path of the storm across districts. Data with this fine temporal resolution are not available for Mozambique. A second option, followed in this study, relies on the daily average wind speed, provided by the African Flood and Drought Monitor. The indicator measures the accumulated daily intensity over the days of the duration of the storm as reported by the EM-DAT database.</mark>

10
# **3.3 Main Outcome Data and Measurement**

Our main data source is the _Enquête Agricole de Conjoncture Intégrée aux Conditions de Vie des Ménages_ (EAC-I). We use the 2014 and 2017 editions of the EAC-I (EAC-I 2014 and EAC-I 2017). EAC-I 2014 and EAC-I 2017 are nationally representative<sup>10</sup> multi-topic household with a focus on These were surveys agriculture. surveys implemented by Mali’s Ministry of Agriculture under the Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Household Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) program.<sup>11</sup> It contains detailed information on the socioeconomic characteristics of farm households, as well as about the crop production activities (type and quantity of fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, credit, etc.). Information is collected at the level of the cultivated plots (area, soil quality, etc.), as well as on the seasonal crops produced (quantity harvested, area on which the crop was harvested, etc.). The EAC-I also contains crucial GPS information that allows us to identify enumeration areas that are exposed to local rainfall shocks.

For each edition of the households were visited twice: the same households survey, interviewed in the visit are re-interviewed in the second visit and the visits were first planned to match the timing of the post-planting and post-harvest periods of the 2014/15 and 2017/18 agricultural rainy seasons. Households interviewed in the EAC-I 2014 differ from those interviewed in the EAC-I 2017. However, the same Enumeration Areas (EA) were visited during these two surveys. Combining the two editions of the EAC-I and excluding the urban areas to focus on rural production, we obtain a final sample of 7,400 households (1,740 in 2014 and 5,660 in 2017).<sup>12</sup> Our main variable of interest is which is measured in crop yields, kilograms per hectare. We define yield as the ratio of crop output reported by the household over the area
A final observation is that graduate enrollments, and the split of graduate students between domestic and foreign students, may be sensitive to the state of the business cycle (Sakellaris and Spilimbergo, 2000). Failure to control for this possibility could risk finding spurious results and, accordingly, we incorporate into all equations the U.S. unemployment rate lagged in the same way as other independent variables.

These econometric models are implemented with annual data over the period 1965 to 2001.<sup>17</sup> The data were collected from a variety of sources. Figures on U.S. graduate students were gathered from the U.S. Department of Education _Statistical Quarterly_ . No separate data were available on the number of U.S. graduate student enrollment in science and engineering for the entire period of analysis. Data on international graduate students were gathered from _Open Doors_ , the publication of Institute for International Education. No data were available on international graduate students in science and engineering for the period prior to 1983 and hence total international graduate students had to be used as a proxy. This is not overly restrictive for approximately 80 percent of international graduate students enter science and engineering fields and most of the rest go into business fields and economics.<sup>18</sup> Data on patents awarded to different institutions, such as universities and industry, were gathered from the National Science Foundation, _Science and Engineering Statistics_ and from the website of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Figures on research and development expenditures (divided by the GDP deflator), total number of scientists and engineers, recipients of doctoral degrees in science and engineering, total

> 17 Note in particular that we do not include the period after September 11, 2001.  Our intent is to discover whether foreign students and skilled immigration could account for increases in technical productivity prior to that period, which may inform policy discussions in the ensuing era.

> 18 See various issues of _Open Doors_ .

17
Research Methods_ , 21.

- Bardasi, E., Beegle, K., Dillon, A., and Serneels, P. (2011). Do labor statistics depend on how and to whom the questions are asked? results from a survey experiment in tanzania. _The World Bank Economic Review_ , 25(3):418–447.

- Beegle, K., De Weerdt, J., Friedman, J., and Gibson, J. (2012). Methods of household consumption measurement through surveys: Experimental results from tanzania. _Journal of development Economics_ , 98(1):3–18.

- Brenner, P. S. and DeLamater, J. D. (2014). Social desirability bias in self-reports of physical activity: is an exercise identity the culprit? _Social Indicators Research_ , 117(2):489–504.

23
|Country|2011 GNI per capita<br>(Atlas methodology <br>current US$)|Income<br> Classification|Public<br>debt/GDP|Date of DeMPA<br>Assessment|Country|2011 GNI per cap<br>(Atlas methodol<br>current US$)|ita<br>Income<br>ogy Classification|Public<br>debt/GDP|Date of DeMPA<br>Assessment|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||_Africa (8)_|||||_Middle East and_|_North Africa (1)_|||
|Cape Verde|3540|lower middle|71|Feb-09|_Djibouti_|_1280_|lower middle|55|Apr-10|
|Comoros|770|low|43|Apr-11||||||
|Gabon|7980|upper middle|21|May-12|_Latin Ameri_|_ca and the Caribbe_|_an (4)_|||
|Gambia|610|low|68|Mar-06 and Jan-10|Antigua and Barbuda|12060|upper middle|93|Jun-09|
|Guinea-Bissau|600|low|44|Sep-11|Grenada|7220|upper middle|104|Jun-09|
|Namibia|4700|upper middle|25|Mar-12|_Guyana_|_3270_|lower middle|65|Apr-06|
|Sao Tome and Principe|1360|lower middle|48|Feb-08 and May-11|St Kitts and Nevis|12480|upper middle|154|Apr-09|
|Swaziland|3300|lower middle|14|June-08 and Mar-11||||||
|||||||_South Asia (2)_||||
||_East Asia (2)_||||Bhutan|2070|lower middle|81|Dec-11
- 30 -

characteristics of each property to be valued, and applying these unit costs to them.

This approach, while objective, is not simple. Extrapolating from market evidence to produce unit cost tables, in particular, requires a higher degree of technical sophistication than is available in most local governments.

Is one definition of value inherently better than another? Not necessarily. What is important is not how value is denominated, but rather whether the methodology used to derive it is sound. The preponderance of evidence from LDCs suggests that methodologies relying on physical characteristics are more suitable to LDC conditions than those based on direct market evidence. Such systems, however, require technical support to the agency responsible for preparing unit cost tables.

In choosing to source of data to be used in calculating unit cost tables, the overriding consideration should be the quality of market data. As discussed earlier, where rental tenure is common, or high taxes on property transactions cause property sales data to be understated, rental data may be the more reliable source. Where owner occupancy is common, or where rent corAtrols have driven the rental market underground, sales and construction cost data may be more reliable. The source of market data will then determine whether value, for tax purposes, is denominated as ARV or capital value.

# Cadastral Maintenance

The fiscal cadastre, once complete, provides on estimate of **the** value of all taxable properties at a given point in time. To
05|12,7|1|4|0,22|
|Tozeur|0,3|0,05|**-**|**-**|0,4|0,05|-|-|-|-|
|Kebili|0,3|0,05|**-**|**-**|**-**|**-**|-|-|-|-|
|**Total**<br>**South-West**|**1,9**|**0,2%**|**0**|**0,0%**|**0,6**|**0,1%**|**12,7**|**1%**|**4**|**0,22%**|
|**Total**|**913**|**100%**|**995**|**100%**|**1097**|**100%**|**1318**|**100%**|**1832**|**100%**|

Recent annual surveys conducted by the Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016) with companies established in all 24 Tunisian governorates, made it possible to assess the attractiveness of each region by calculating a local business climate index. The objective of the annual study was to assess for each region a set of development indicators such as: living environment, infrastructure, access to information, availability of workforce and the quality of local governance and business
small firms are made-to-order, for special occasions like funerals and weddings, as dress attire for church, for work in government offices on African-wear Fridays, or simply as everyday clothing. A fraction of shops also produce ready-made garments or supply larger school uniform contracts, but exporting or selling to large distributors is rare. In the study sample, the best selling product in about 70% of firms was bespoke womenswear, another 25% of firms reported bespoke menswear as the most commonly produced item, and less than 5% of the sample reported specializing in some other type of garment (e.g. wedding dresses, school uniforms, hand-made bags). The product mix is fairly gender segregated, though there is no difference in the product mix between with and without workers.

Production of bespoke garments can be undertaken via a combination of three different production technologies: by hand using a needle and thread, using a manual hand or foot crank sewing machine, or using an electric sewing machine, in order of increasing productivity. 97% of the firms in the sample have

> 4The West Africa Gas Pipeline, the first of its kind in Africa, transports natural gas from Nigeria to Benin, Togo, and Ghana, and began service in 2009. The pipeline was damaged by pirates trying to board an oil tanker off the coast of Togo in 2012. Interruption in the supply of natural gas continued through 2013.

> 5In this paper’s appendix, we present the official load shedding schedule for the relevant dates, discuss variation over time and across firms in the sample, provide information on some unofficial ex-post load shedding records the research team was able to obtain, and document the relationship between the official and unofficial schedules and the self-reported blackout data exploited in the paper.

5
increase in exposure to foreign demand. More specifically, on average, the elasticity of employment with respect to exports is 0.1 over the short run and 0.3 over the long run. The long-run elasticity of the labor force with respect to foreign demand shocks is positive but smaller than that of employment. Six years after the foreign demand shock, the cumulative response of the labor force is about 0.17%. A 1% increase in exports induces a decrease in the unemployment rate of 0.08 percentage point six years after the shock.

Effects on real average wages are also positive, with an elasticity of 0.6 over the long run. We try to proxy for overall welfare by estimating the elasticity of the real wage bill with respect to exports: it is high and highly significant, reaching 1.2 six years after the shock.

> 2 During the 1990s Indonesia experienced several liberalization efforts that boosted exports as well as a backlash induced by the currency crisis. The team considered it interesting to incorporate trade data associated to periods of boom (1993-97), recession (1998-2000), and recovery (2001-onwards) of export values for the medium- and long-run implications of the results. The second reason, finishing the study period in 2014, relates to a life-cycle project the team was planning to conduct using a representative individual-level panel (IFLS data) for the same period 1993-2014 (the last round of IFLS took place in 2014). The team considers comparing results for district-level averages with those using much more granular data between 1993-2014 would be of great interest. Extending the horizon of the current study to 2022 is doable and will be incorporated in future versions of the paper.

2
deepening<br><!-- End of picture text --> Note: Authors’ calculation based on the APO Productivity Database 2019. Capital deepening indicates the rate of change in capital stock per labor hour.

A similar pattern is observed for TFP (Figure 1). In the international comparison, Pakistan also does not fare well. Since 2000, labor productivity grew at an average rate of 1.5 percent annually, substantially below what is observed in India (6 percent) and Bangladesh (4.4 percent). This can be partly explained by the slowdown in capital deepening – the increase in the stock of capital per worker. Indeed, while India and Bangladesh have experienced positive growth in capital per worker over the past decades (Figure 2), in Pakistan, capital per worker has been growing at a declining rate, and has practically stagnated since 2010.

Policy measures of integration also show some stagnation. According to the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index (OTRI), Pakistan is currently the world’s seventh most-protected economy

> 5 These macro indicators on productivity are obtained from the APO Productivity Database, based on a Solow decomposition, assuming constant returns to scale, and perfect competition.

5
Mastruzzi (2003).

Since 1998 the improvement in the quality of governance in Bulgaria has been very significant in all dimensions. The value of aggregate index of 0.37 in 2002 was much higher than of any other SEE country including Croatia and Romania. It was, however, still well below the quality of governance in CEEC-8 countries in 2002. It is not clear whether the ‘governance’ gap vis-à-vis CEEC-8 has been falling over the last two years, as there a re no data available for 2003 and 2004. Yet, considering the fall in the perceived level of corruption as reported by Transparency International, one would expect at least continuation of trends observed in 1998-2002.

An examination of recent progress in structural reforms suggests that developments over 2002-04 could be characterized as acceleration rather than a mere continuation of trends in 1998-02. This is a general conclusion that can be derived from the EBRD transition indicators pertaining to structural, second-

> 3 There are two arguments to focus solely on these indicators: First, these indicators are critical dimensions of business climate. Political stability impacts investment decisions and in extreme situations of its absence may disrupt economic activities. The quality of regulation is of little relevance unless supported by the government capacity to enforce regulations. Second, three other indicators pertinent to such dimensions of governance as the rule of law, control of corruption, and voice and accountability are not taken into account do not yield extra information. For all transition economies, they are strongly correlated with the selected three indicators, with the values of correlation coefficients equal or above 0.9.
entrepreneurial success (e.g. Khwaja and Klinger, 2007; Rauch and Frese, 2007; de Mel et al. 2008). We find that women in male-dominated sectors appear to have similar educational attainment to women in female-concentrated sectors, however, they have higher levels of self-efficacy, an important socioemotional skill. Career fit confidence has been shown to explain some of the gender gap in persistence in engineering careers (male-dominated) in the United States (Cech et al. 2011). We include two measures of career fit confidence in the survey and find that, on average, women in male-dominated sectors report being less committed to their sector and have lower entrepreneurial identity.

Finally, we analyze characteristics of the firms and the owners/managers across the different categories of industries and find that women in male-dominated sectors work more hours per week and have a lower share of female employees relative to female-owned firms in female-concentrated sectors. Female crossovers are also more likely to have a line of credit or a loan from a financial institution.

The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section II describes the _Future of Business_ survey, our main data source. Section III describes how we defined which sectors can be considered male-dominated and female-concentrated. Section IV presents the empirical results where we first compare the business performance and challenges of crossover firms to non-crossover firms. We then explore a number of correlates associated with crossing over to male-dominated sectors, including the role of the spouse and the characteristics of the crossover and non-crossover firms. Section V concludes.

4
have higher e-commerce adoption rates.

The CDR-based indicators were combined with complementary data, including, among others:

- For Bogota: E-commerce sales reports for Colombia; a tool developed by the Latin American Center for Logistics Innovation (CLI) that integrates order shipment data from three e-commerce companies in 2019; National Quality of Life Survey (ECV); Bogotá Household Mobility Survey 2019; and SDM Bogotá (2021) which includes interviews with 2,126  load generating and attracting establishments in Bogota in 20202021 and classified cargo vehicle traffic counts in Bogota in 2015 and October 2020.

- For Buenos Aires: E-commerce reports for Argentina produced by the Argentine Chamber of Electronic Commerce; e-commerce survey of AMBA consumers in 2020; National Household Expenditure Survey (2017-2018); classified traffic counts of freight vehicles in Buenos Aires in 2018-2019 collected by the Undersecretary of Mobility Planning of CABA; and the ENMODO household travel surveys for Buenos Aires (2008-2009, 2018-2020<sup>5</sup> ).

# **4. E-commerce-related mobility prior to the pandemic and potential for shopping trip elimination**

Trips linked to shopping activities in 2019 accounted for about 10.5 percent of total mobility in Bogotá on weekdays (EDM Bogota 2019). About 85 percent of shopping trips in 2019 were reported as home-based, i.e., originating from or destined for home. However, it should be noted that household surveys tend to underrepresent non-home-based trips and trips made for activities of short duration (Chapleau 2018) and overestimate the proportion of home-based trips due to response bias (Aschauer et al. 2018). Nearly 10 percent of all home-based trips, one-fifth of the home-based trips other than “compulsory mobility” (work, education), and 15 percent of non-home-based trips were for shopping purposes. About 25 percent of shopping trips in Bogota in 2019 were part of a trip chain, the percentage being much higher among non-home-

> 4 Income groups are approximated by the spatial classification of socioeconomic wellbeing used by the city planning agencies: in Bogota
–2005) and future period (2006–2100<sup>2</sup> ) at representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 (Stocker _et al._ , 2013). RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 are part of a new set of scenarios used in the new climate model simulations carried out under the framework of the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase of the World Climate Research Programme. According to IPCC AR5, the RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic (i.e. human) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. RCP 4.5 assumes that global annual GHG emissions (measured in CO2‐equivalents) peak around mid‐century and then stabilise around 2100 whereas RCP 8.5 emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century (Moss et al.,2010 in IPCC 2014). From the daily river‐routing outputs, we extract the annual maxima value of the river water depth (spatial resolutions: 0.25° x 0.25°) for each AOGCM (1970‐2100 (131 years) or 1970‐2099 (130 years).

For each grid‐cell within each AOGCM, we extract the annual maxima river water depth of the period 1970–1999 to quantify the Gumbel distribution parameters, which represent extreme value statistics for the late 20<sup>th</sup> century. With these parameters, we estimate the return period of the annual maxima for 1970–2100 and 1970–2099. Based on the Gumbel distribution parameters of the baseline period (Hu et al., 2016, Section 3.4.1), we calculate the 'equivalent' river water depth of the baseline for each AOGCM as a way of reducing bias.

> 1 The full list of AOGCMs is available in the supplementary materials section of Hirabayashi et al. (2013), in Table S1.

> 2 For most of the AOGCMs, the period is 2006‐
Village was quarantined**|.030|.118|{.119}|
|**Village visited by contact tracing team**|.928|1|{.088}|
|**Received Relief from NGO**|.849|.853|{.103}|
|**Village received food aid**|.199|.353|{.986}|
|**Village received school supplies (excl. BRAC)**|.355|.500|{.690}|
|**Received Relief from Government**|.687|.706|{.140}|

**Notes:** Data sources are the Village Census (Panel A), and the Village Leader Surveys (distance measures in Panel A, all outcomes in Panels B and C). Column 3 reports p-values from a test of equality of means carried out by OLS regression of each characteristic on a dummy for assignment to treatment. All regressions include strata (district) dummies and calculate robust standard errors. The Poverty Score (PPI) is calculated through scorecards and its value, ranging from 0 to 100, represents the likelihood of a household being below the poverty line. The number of pre-existing NGOs includes all organizations apart from BRAC. Distance from Freetown and Kailahun are computed from GPS data.