rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
# **Figure A1. Investment growth slowdown**

_Investment growth in EMDEs has slowed sharply since the global financial crisis. In 2015, the share of EMDEs with investment growth below its long‐term average reached its highest level except during global downturns. Long‐term forecasts suggest continued weakness in investment growth. Weak investment growth has been accompanied by anemic productivity growth, compounding risks that the income catch‐up of EMDEs to advanced economy (AE) levels may slow._

## **B. Quarterly investment growth: EMDEs**

## **A. Investment growth**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Percent<br>1990-2008 average<br>12<br>2003-08 average<br>8<br>4<br>0<br>EMDEs AEs World<br>2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Year-on-year, percent EMDEs<br>15 1990-2008 average<br>2003-08 average<br>10<br>5<br>0<br>2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1<br><!-- End of picture text -->

## **C. Share of EMDEs with investment growth below its long‐term average**

## **D. Five‐year‐ahead forecasts of investment growth**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Percent<br>EMDEs AEs World<br>10<br>8<br>6<br>4<br>2<br>0<br>2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> EMDEs AEs World<br>Percent of EMDEs 10<br>100
and value‐added. An ailing services sector has widespread consequences, since services are used as inputs throughout economy. Moreover, manufacturing firms today do not only produce goods; they are increasingly also producing and selling services. Turkey also shows signs of this servicification process, but very slowly. While servicification has the potential to increase firm performance, this does not appear to be happening in Turkey: manufacturing firms with services tend to be less productive, particularly the ones that produce establishment and post‐manufacturing services. This section looks at regulatory restrictions as a potential explanatory factor.

**Removing regulatory restrictions on services can increase the contribution of services to productivity growth.** Services that are either used as inputs or performed internally by manufacturing firms can be a driver of downstream productivity when effectively enabled by policy reforms (Arnold et al., 2011; 2015). Moreover, whether input markets are well integrated with downstream industries and face relatively low policy distortions can partially explain cross‐country differences in economic and productivity performance (Bartelme and Gorodnichenko, 2015). Regulatory restrictions on services input markets deserve special attention, as they have historically been subject to policy distortions.

**Higher services restrictions are correlated with lower productivity of manufacturing firms.** Previous firm‐ level studies across developed and developing countries show that removing obstacles in services markets has a direct impact on productivity in downstream industries. Arnold _et al_ . (2011) found that increased foreign participation of firms in services sectors caused an improvement in downstream manufacturing sectors in the Czech Republic; Arnold et al. (2015) found a similar result for India. They also show that regulatory reform in services in India had a positive impact on downstream manufacturing firms.

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# **3.2 Sample size and data collection**

## **3.2.1 Sample size**

In each country, around 3,000 respondents completed the survey. This number of survey respondents was determined by examining the sample size of other cross-country randomized survey experiments in this field and conducting statistical power calculations (see Appendix A for details). The split between the control and treatment groups was not even, as the control group received a higher share of respondents (40 percent in the control group and 20 percent in each of the three treatment groups). This arrangement ensured greater statistical power for the analysis because the treatment groups were pooled together for a lot of the analysis (see the following subsection for more details).<sup>11</sup> Specifically, in each country, there were at least 1,200 respondents in the control group and 600 respondents in each of the three treatment groups (1,800 in total). Seminal cross-country randomized survey experiments by Alesina et al. (2018, 2023) also had around 900 to 1,000 respondents in each treatment group in each country. Other studies in this field have had smaller sample sizes (Cruces et al. 2013; Karadja et al. 2017) and have still detected significant heterogeneous treatment effects based on prior beliefs. Furthermore, Haaland et al. (2023) summarize best practices in online randomized survey experiments that provide information interventions, and they suggest that having in the order of 700 respondents per treatment/control group should provide adequate power to detect an effect that is commonly observed in the literature.

## **3.2.2 Data collection**

The sample of respondents was collected via an online survey. Online surveys are a convenient way of collecting information rapidly, allowing for the use of visual stimuli and reducing the risk of experimenter demand and social desirability effects (Stantcheva 2022). However, there are challenges with representativeness in middle-income countries that need to be
which is depicted in Figure 1.

1. **Registration.** The first step in the process is the electronic registration of an import declaration by the broker on behalf of the importer via the Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA)++ customs clearance IT system.<sup>11</sup>

2. **Risk analysis.** The second step consists in risk analysis conducted by both GasyNet, a third party service provider that assists Madagascar customs with risk analysis and logistics, and the customs risk management unit.<sup>12</sup> For each declaration, (i) a risk score is issued based on GasyNet’s proprietary risk model, (ii) a clearance channel is recommended along with a qualitative justification. If the yellow channel is selected the inspector only needs to check the documentation. If the red channel is selected the inspector is expected to physically inspect the cargo. However, the inspector is at liberty to change the clearance channel based on her own judgment. In addition, (iii) for a very small subset

> 9These averages do not consider small brokers (i.e., those handling less than 50 declarations per semester) since they will not be part of our estimating sample (described in Section 3).

> 10A very small number of importers - 6 in our sample - obtained their own broker’s license and simultaneously act as importer and broker. They handle 3.2 percent of the declarations.

> 11ASYCUDA is an integrated customs management system developed by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) that has been adopted by more than 100 countries’ customs agencies.

> 12In reality the second step (risk analysis) and the third step (inspector assignment) happen simultaneously.

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food expenditures or food security for children in the household, with only half of non-migrant households being food secure.<sup>xvii</sup> Household heads in migrant households were older, less likely to be male (reflecting higher male migration) and less educated, in a region with relatively low education compared to national levels. About half of the household heads report identifying as indigenous as opposed to _ladino_ (mixed Spanish Amerindian) heritage. Unsurprisingly, migrant households were substantially more likely to receive remittances.

The better conditions in migrant households also were reflected in far better outcomes for their children, although there was substantial chronic undernutrition for both groups. In Table 1b, we summarize average HAZ and other indicators of child nutritional status. HAZ and stunting reflect cumulative processes and are therefore often considered longer-term indicators of nutrition, while the other measures also reflect shorter-term or current conditions, in particular WHZ and wasting. Consistent with the chronic undernutrition measured in the school census described earlier, in 2008, more than half of children under three years old were stunted and nearly 20 percent underweight; prevalence of both conditions, however, was substantially higher for non-migrants. Wasting, an acute form of current undernutrition, was rare but still higher than would be expected in a healthy population. Notably, maternal education in migrant households was higher, with possible implications for present and future child health.

In summary, migrant households and their children were substantially better off on a number of dimensions, but even they experienced high levels of poverty and child undernutrition. The migration strategies utilized in this region evidently do not provide a full exit from poverty.
Psacharopoulos, G., J. P. Tan, and E. Jimenez. 1986. Financing Education in Developing Countries: An Exploration of Policy Options. Washington, D.C: World Bank.

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. 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change." Journal of Political Economy 98(5 ):s71-102.

. 1993. "Two Strategies for Economic Development: Using Ideas and Producing Ideas." Proceedings of the Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1992 Supplement. World Bank Economic Review. Washington, D.C.

Schultz, T.W. 1961. "Investment in Human Capital. " American Economic Review 51(l):1-17.

Spiegel, Mark. 1994. "Determinants of long-run productivity growth: A selective survey with some new empirical results." mimeo.

Summers, Robert and Alan Heston. 1991. " The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An expanded set of international comparisons. 1950-88." Quarterly Journal of Economics. 106(2):327-368.

Stiglitz, Joseph E. And Marilou Uy. 1996. "Financial Markets, Public Policy, and the East Asian Miracle." The World Bank Research Observer, I 1(2):249-76.

Tilak, J.B. G. 1989. "Education and its Relation to Economic Growth, Poverty, and Income Distribution: Past Evidence and Further Analysis." World Bank Working Papers 46.

Thomas, Vinod and Yan Wang. 1996. "Distortions, Interventions and Productivity Growth: Is East Asia Different?" Economic Development and Cultural Change, 44(2):265-288.

. 1997. "East Asian Lessons from Reforms." In Wing T. Woo, Stephen Parker, and Jeffrey D. Sachs, eds. Economies in Transition: Comparing Asia and Eastern Europe. Cambridge Mass: MIT Press.

World Bank. 1991. World Development Report 1991: Challenge of
coefficients on _Kinshasa_ → _Brazzaville_ in Table 9). This implies that trade facilitation between Kinshasa and Brazzaville would lead to a balanced expansion of trade flows in both directions.

_Results: Qualitative Findings_

**The non-quantifiable survey answers shed additional light on the existing patterns of trade and transport, as well as the main constraints to the expansion of cross-border exchanges.** They offer complementary insights into economic exchanges between Kinshasa and Brazzaville through the eyes of local operators.

**Brazzaville is currently considered a negligible market for most firms in Kinshasa, but responses point towards large untapped trade potential overall, and towards very large untapped potential for formal trade.** Of the 38 Kinshasa-based firms, only 17 declared significant sales in Brazzaville, ranging from 1 to 25 percent of turnover. The average share of sales is estimated at around 5 percent. Given that the population of Brazzaville corresponds to some 15 percent of the population of Kinshasa, and that average income is higher in Brazzaville, this is another pointer towards unexploited trade potential between the two cities.

**As a result of excessive administrative costs most cross-river trade is partly or fully informal.** Only two of the 17 Kinshasa firms who have significant client bases in Brazzaville export through official channels. The remaining 15 firms sell to their Brazzaville-based customers in Kinshasa and get their clients to ship the goods across Malebo Pool. Six Kinshasa-based firms declared that they had either exported formally to Brazzaville in the past of seriously considered doing so, but abandoned all such activity, citing excessive administrative costs including duties, paperwork and bribes. Informally traded goods are smuggled across the river via well established systems involving under-the-counter payments to various customs and security officials. Such trade occurs both on the ONATRA/CNTF ferries and on pirogues.

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[-0.09, 0.06], net exports as a proportion of<br>GDP [-178, -1.34], terms of trade differential [-4.1, 2.4], GDP per<br>capita differential [-1.5, 1.5].|
|Yajie et al. (2007)|China|1980–2004|interest rate differential (not included due to capital controls), relative<br>price of tradables to nontradables as a proxy for productivity divergence<br>(1.25), terms of trade (not signif.), money supply (-1.18), central bank<br>foreign reserve holdings (0.86).|
|Ricci et al. (2008)|panel of 48 countries<br>using DOLS|1980–2004|productivity based on sectoral breakdown for tradables (0.17) and<br>nontradables (-0.21), commodity terms of trade (0.56), net foreign<br>assets as % of trade (0.04), government consumption as % of GDP<br>(2.84), trade restrictions dummy (0.13), and price controls based on<br>share of administered prices in the CPI basket (-0.04).|
|Bénassy-Quéré e|t<br>panel of G20|1980–2005|real interest rate differential (excl. due to stationarity), alternative|
|al. (2009)|countries||measures of productivity differentials such as CPI-to-PPI ratio (0.88),<br>services to agriculture and industry deflators (0.91), GDP per capita<br>(0.04), and GDP per employed worker (0.07), terms of trade [0.33,<br>1.04], net foreign assets [0.
ages ranging from 19 to 61. Education levels were average for the low-income population, ranging from primary to undergraduate education. Credit auditors made 153 visits (total 153 auditor-branch pairs since no multiple visits were needed to complete a loan application process). Savings auditors carried out a total of 156 visits.

Credit and savings visits took place between the months of March and July 2015. In a given location, a branch was always visited by more than one auditor. After each visit the auditor was required to complete a questionnaire.

Immediately after recruitment, auditors were randomized into savings and credit scripts, stratifying by gender. Auditors memorized the script and used a uniform language when asking about the products. Appendix Table 1 documents the contract terms about which auditors had to ask if the staff did not disclose the information voluntarily. During the training, the auditors and field manager were never told about the purpose of the study nor the specific hypotheses we wanted to test.

The scripts, also described in Giné and Mazer (2017) varied along three dimensions: financial sophistication or literacy, the degree of perceived competition and the dress code used in the visit.

Appendix Table 2 shows that for the 5 auditor characteristics we collected, there is balance in 9 out of 10 comparisons. In particular, credit auditors assigned high experience profiles are marginally more likely to be older. We conclude therefore that the profiles are assigned randomly and that the samples of auditors in each script are balanced.

# **5. Data**

We use data from 4 different sources. First, the questionnaire filled by auditors after each visit which covers various aspects of the visit, including its length, the products offered and their features. Second, the printed materials that the staff handed to the auditor, consisting of either brochures about the product or, less frequently, personalized amortization tables when credit was requested. The third data source comes from a survey of a sample of credit officers that serviced the auditors. The survey was conducted after the audit study
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alive in 2004. This effectively meant that the original household panel survey turned into a panel of individuals. A full household questionnaire was administered in a household where a panel respondent was found residing. Due to household dynamics, the sample size increased to more than 2,700 households.<sup>11</sup> The second KHDS follow-up was administered in 2010 with this time more than 3,300 households interviewed.<sup>12</sup> Although KHDS is a panel of individuals and the definition of a household loses meaning after 10-19 years, it is common in panel surveys to consider re-contact rates in terms of households. Excluding households for which all previous members were deceased (17 households and 27 respondents), the KHDS 2004 field team managed to re-contact 93 percent of the baseline households. In 2010, 92 percent of the initial households were re-contacted. Taking into account the long, 10 or 16 year periods between surveys, the attrition rates in KHDS-2004 and KHDS-2010 are extremely low by the standards for such panels (Alderman et al. 2001).

This paper exploits the fact that the survey includes all tracked split-offs from the original household and contains particularly rich information on the current links between them. The 2010 sample contains 3,314 households, originating from 816 initial households. The average baseline household spawned 4.1 households by 2010, out of which 1.8 were non-migrant and 2.3 were migrant households. Approximately 3 percent of the initial households (99 households) did not have any split-offs. In what follows we will refer to these networks as extended family networks.

Figure 1 provides an overview of migration patterns. By 2010 nearly 45 percent of the households were still residing in their original baseline community. We define migrants as households that in 2010 are not located in the original village but are found from a nearby village, elsewhere within Kagera or outside Kagera.<sup>13</sup> _[Figure 1 here]_

> 11 See Beegle, De
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in the process is to assemble **and** analyze the **available** market data.121 The valuation office begins by obtaining data on recent land sales, including (at the minimum) the value of the transaction, the location of the property, and the square footage involved. By grouping the sales according to their location within the city, this provides the basis for calculating the value of square foot of land in each neighborhood.

The value of improvements can . estimated either on the basis of recent sales, or based on depreciated replacement cost. The latter approach is more common. Here, unit costs for improvements are determined, first, by defining typical building types in the city. Valuation staff then prepare estimates of the construction cost of a typical building of each class, based on information obtained from local construction firms and building materials suppliers. Taking the total construction cost, and dividing it by the square footage assumed for each class of property yields an estimate of the unit cost (per square foot) for each type of building. Further elaboration of the building cost table would be required to take into account variations in the age and condition of buildings to be valued.

The process yields a table showing the value per square foot of land in various neighborhood, and the value of per square foot of improvements of various types and conditions. Inidividual property valuations are then calculated by obtaining data on the physical

- 12/ The method described here is termed "mass appraisal." It is used to value common classes of property, on which an active market exists. To value unusual properties (such as large factories) valuers will make more detailed appraisal of individual parcel, and **may** base their valuation on discounted income or depreciated replacement cost methods.
assets<sup>1</sup>. For all countries, capital stock figures in local<br>currency are converted into USD using PPP conversion factor to the official<br>exchange rate ratio.<br>|
||Labor cost|Total expenditures on personnel<sup>2</sup>. For all countries, labor cost figures in local<br>currency are converted into USD using PPP conversion factor to the official<br>exchange rate ratio.|
||Materials|Total costs of intermediate and raw materials used in production (excluding<br>electricity, fuel, and water). For all countries, materials figures in local<br>currency are converted into USD using PPP conversion factor to the official<br>exchange rate ratio.|
||Energy<br>Cost|Total annual costs of electricity, fuel, and water.|
||Other<br>Costs|Total annual costs of communications services, transport for goods (not<br>includingfuel),and rental of land/buildings,equipment,furniture,etc.|
|Outcomes|Technical<br>efficiency|CCR efficiency index (Bias-Corrected) by Industry (year 2005).|
||Dummy<br>exporter|Dummy variable that takes value 1 whem firm is exporter and 0 whem firm is<br>non-exporter|
||Dummy<br>production<br>workers<br>trained|Dummy variable that takes value 1 if the firm has permanent full-time<br>productions workers who have been trained (by the firm)|
||Dummy<br>Expenditur<br>es of R&D|Dummy variable that takes value 1 if the firm carried out internal R+D during<br>2006 (performed within this establishment).|
|Treatment<br>and control|Dummy<br>Overdraft<br>facility|Dummy variable that take value 1 if the firm has an overdraft facility|

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elasticity of substitution used in CES functional forms used to model the 6 It can be argued that the analysis based on six-year-old data might not represent the economic reality of today in Ethiopia. However, SAMs are developed occasionally (such as at 5-year intervals) even in developed economies. Building a SAM more frequently in developing countries is challenging. Use of a SAM that is 5-10 years old is common practice in CGE modeling for two reasons. First, a SAM represents the structure of an economy, which is unlikely to change in a short period. Second, a CGE approach basically models the behavior of economic agents (consumers, producers). Behavioral change also requires a long period. The key findings of the model are unlikely to change even if a new SAM is built and used. Building a SAM is itself a data and time-intensive exercise.