rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
160.2|275,040.0|
|as%of Total Manufacturing<br>Output<br>38.0o|42.08|26.46|

a) indirect taxes and subsidies are deducted (see table 2.3).

b) includes 363.6 million US$ (excl. indirect taxes and subsidies) for petroleum refining, which are not shown in the census Resumen General but taken from Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales de Mexico.

Note: Figures are converted at the official exchange rate of 8.13 cruzeiros to the US$ and 12.50 pesos to the US$.

Source: Brazil and Mexico: derived from table 3.1; US figures from Annual Survey of Manufactures 1975-1976.
# **5 Data**

The necessary set of data includes a panel of country-level exports from Sub-Saharan African countries to the United States; a set of macroeconomic variables that would traditionally explain variations in trade flows from the gravity model literature and the time and eligibility information of the AGOA treatment. The analysis draws trade flows data from Sub-Saharan Africa to the US from the US International Trade Commission (USITC). Data on AGOA eligibility of countries come from the US Government Accountability Office and the International Trade Administration within the US Department of Commerce.

The outcome variable is the aggregate value of exports from each country to the United States (in Millions of US $). Data on exports originating from SSA countries are often incomplete. In addition, variation in measurement across countries may make cross-country comparisons limited. Hence, we use annual US imports data from African countries to examine impact. This also ensures consistency of measurement across countries, besides the reliability and completeness of data from the US. Using import price indices obtained from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov), import values are deflated to constant 2000 USD.

In 2013, total US imports from AGOA eligible countries totaled $26.8 billion, more than four times the amount in 2001. Petroleum products continued to account for the largest portion of AGOA imports with an 86 percent share of overall AGOA imports principally accounted for by five countries. Between 2013 and 2015, there is significant decline - more than a 25% - in AGOA exports to the US mainly due to the massive decline in commodity prices. Total non-oil US imports from AGOA eligible countries were about $ 4.8 billion 18
## **Figure 1: Breakdown of youth population aged 15 to 24 in LAC, 2010**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Youth<br>(aged 15 - 24)<br>92.2 million = 100%<br><!-- End of picture text --> <!-- Start of picture text --> Study only<br>34%<br>Work only<br>33%<br>Study & Work<br>12%<br>Ninis<br>19%<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: authors’ own computation with data from CEDLAS and The World Bank (2015)

# **3. Stylized facts: The evolution of ninis in Latin America**<sup>**6**</sup>

Having identified that 1 in 5 Latin American youth are both out of school and out of work, we analyze how this rate has changed over the past 20 years, to understand whether the problem is becoming more or less severe, as well as how individual countries’ trends vary around this mean trend. Figure 2 presents the evolution of ninis aged 15 to 24 years in Latin America between 1992 and 2010, in both absolute terms and as a proportion of the relevant age demographic. The figure shows that the unweighted average _share_ of ninis has decreased modestly over that period, from 23.4 percent in 1992 to 19.3 percent in 2010, which amounts to a decline of 4.1 percentage points. Over the same period, however, the _number_ of ninis rose slightly from 16.4 million to 18.2 million, amounting to an increase of 14 percent (or 1.8 million individuals) in spite of their decline relative to the 15 to 24 year-old population. This trend of a declining share but rising number of ninis is driven by high population growth for this age group
ity: 9% of households have zero forgone consumption, while nearly a quarter could reduce expenditure by 10% or more without reducing quantity purchased. If we take the alternative approach of holding expenditure constant and calculating the counterfactual quantities that could be purchased by buying in bulk, we find even larger average values. Households could purchase 33% more kerosene, 50% more cooking bananas, 24% more cooking oil, 46% more onions, 18% more dried sardines – surprisingly large amounts for goods that are part of daily life in Tanzanian villages.

It appears that there could be substantial welfare gains from rearranging purchases to avoid buying small quantities at high mark-ups. Whether that is actually true depends on the reasons that shoppers arrange purchases this way. The second half of the paper is dedicated to understanding why households forego bulk discounts. We consider a range of hypotheses that come from the literature, from discussions with Tanzanians, or from discussions with other researchers. These include: binding liquidity constraints prevent households from buying in bulk; people enjoy going to the market and shopping; it is too costly to transport bulk quantities; it is too costly to store bulk quantities; consumers are not aware of bulk discounts; coordination failures among household members lead to financially inefficient purchasing; frequent purchases are a way to avoid over-consuming stocks; frequent purchases are a way to avoid stocks that attract friends and neighbors requesting hand-outs.

The paper presents evidence against all of these hypotheses except the last two, for which there is support. The finding that households make frequent purchases as a way to ration consumption, perhaps due to worries that they will consume large stocks more quickly than they would like, is based on the analysis of shopping patterns for “temptation goods,” which we identified through a separate survey effort in Tanzania. The suggestive evidence that households purchase in small quantities in order to avoid social taxation—non-household members consuming a portion of their purchases—aligns with recent work on redistributive pressures in similar settings (Anderson and Baland, 2002
<!-- Start of picture text --> EGRA<br>LLECE<br>PASEC<br>PIRLS<br>PISA<br>SACMEQ<br>TIMSS<br>0 5 10 15<br>Standard error for Original Score<br>Standard Error for HLO Score<br>SUPPLEMENT FIGURE II<br>Standard Errors by Test<br><!-- End of picture text --> Notes: We decompose standard errors on the overall HLO score versus the original test. This reveals the source of uncertainty derived from sampling variation from the original test relative to variation introduced from the production of the linking function.

Finally, we supplement the primary approaches to link regional to international assessments with alternative linking methods. We compare results with learning scores using Item-Response Theory, often considered one of the most reliable methods in the psychometric literature (Kolen and Brennan 2014). IRT models the probability a given pupil answers a given test item correctly as a function of pupil and item-specific characteristics (Mislevy, Beaton, Kaplan, and Sheehan 1992; Holland and Dorans 2006). This methodology is used to construct the underlying tests we use. However, to use it to compare learning _across_ assessments would require enough overlap in the test items across each assessment. This is not true for a large enough set of tests and time periods to create a globally comparable panel data set. For example, TIMSS 1995 and SACMEQ 2000 included overlapping math items, but only had three items to make this comparison. When this overlap is small, standard maximum likelihood estimates will reflect both true variance and measurement error, overstating the variance in the test score distribution. Das and Zajonc (2010) elaborate on the various challenges of estimating IRT parameters with limited item-specific overlap.

While IRT might not be a reliable approach when there is limited item-by-item overlap, we conduct a few comparisons where overlap is larger. We compare our results to the _Linking International Comparative Student Assessment_ (LINCS) project which uses IRT
# **Appendix: Data and methodological issues**

This study relies on a relatively small number of assumptions and simplifications to work around the absence of data in some areas. It also constitutes only a first step towards a more comprehensive tool to integrate land use changes as a policy relevant option to achieve thicker and more efficient labor markets. As such some methodological choices and data related issues deserve to be discussed.

## **Data choices:**

- <u>Imperfect data about number and location of jobs: the amount and location of formal economic</u> opportunities are inferred from a detailed land use map, associating them with the quantity of land used for industrial, commercial and public utility purposes. This is suboptimal as it does not provide exact information about job numbers and location. The correlation between land uses and economic opportunities is loose: it is indeed uneasy to associate number of square meters used for industrial purposes with a number of industrial jobs. The same applies for commercial activities etc... But even accepting the bold idea that job numbers are proportional to number of square meters, the land use map used in this study does not provide information about building heights, only land plot size. Therefore, one storey buildings are considered in the same way as six storey buildings. The strong assumptions that we make are the unfortunate consequence of the lack of data. We will however pursue efforts aimed at identifying or producing more accurate sources for counting and locating formal jobs in the urban area of Nairobi County. As a follow up to this study the team will apply the same methodology to assess accessibilities and their potential enhancements through land use occupation changes in Kampala, Uganda. In Kampala, detailed registries on employment quantities and locations exist and will increase the accuracy of our conclusions.

- <u>Other public or collective transportation options besides matatus:</u> In parallel to the informal minibus system – matatus – discussed in this paper, there exists both a formal bus system
With respect to risk coping measures, we use data on household consumption, loans and remittances, and adult labor supply.

**Consumption.** The GLSS reports households’ frequent consumption (excluding medical expenditures) during the six days before the interview. Panel B of Table 1 shows its sample average. Households observed before the implementation of the NHIS reported an average weekly consumption of 104,420 GHS ($11). Households observed after the NHIS reported an average of 88,530 GHS ($9). As with reported medical expenditures, reported consumption is highly skewed. We, therefore, use a logarithmic transformation of consumption in our analysis. Panel B in Figure 3 shows the respective RD graph. While there is no change at the discontinuity, we observe a significant drop in the average household consumption two months after NHIS implementation, which will not be picked up in the regression discontinuity analysis. Overall, the average consumption was higher during the six months after NHIS implementation than in the six months before, as seen by the fitted lines.

**Loans and Remittances.** Households were also asked about formal loan take up, the quantity borrowed, and remittances received by the household that were used for health purposes. The variables are reported over the year before the interview. Panel C of Table 1 displays that about 5% of households in our sample observed after the introduction of the NHIS borrowed a loan, compared to 7% among households observed before the NHIS. The latter had a higher average borrowing than the former. This difference is not statistically significant.

Remittances received in households observed before the implementation of the NHIS amounted to 96,650 GHS ($10), compared to 77,170 GHS ($8) among households observed after. This is a sizeable difference. The low value of remittances is because only about 2 percent of households reported receiving any remittances. To deal with the large number of zeros in the loans and remittances amounts, we use a logarithmic transformation
# **River Basin Organization Survey**

## **<u>1. General Data</u>**

|Basin:|Country:||
|---|---|---|
|RBO Name:|||
|RBO Address:<br>|||
|Contact<br>Person:|Position:||
|Telephone:|Fax:||
|Email:|||
|Website:|||
|**2. Institutional Setup**<br>1. Basin area (square km):|||
|2. Population Total:||% Rural:|
|3. Annual precipitation (mm):|||
|4. Annual evapotranspiration (mm):|||
|5. Water resources in the basin<br>(Million cubic metersperyear):|||
|6. No. of Countries that Share the Basin:|||

75
the survey suggest that increasing the local presence of tax officers had a positive impact on tax morale, but this was concentrated outside Dar es Salaam and centered around limited survey measures. The impact on compliance of taxpayers in targeted wards is also not straightforward. On the extensive (paid anything) and intensive (amount paid) margins, overall the treatment has no impact. However, looking at heterogeneity across regions, increased local presence of tax officers had a positive impact on both the likelihood of payment and the payment amount in the Eastern region of Tanzania (primarily made up of Dar es Salaam and Pwani) in the first quarter of 2023 (immediately after the data collection).

The explanation for the lack of overall impact is likely due to the limited spillover effects on non-visited businesses, which is supported by an endline survey conducted in April/May 2024 in treatment and control wards with the same and neighboring businesses as the December 2022 survey. Combining findings from survey and administrative data, we try to reconcile these by exploring whether survey responses were biased (i.e., untruthful) -reflecting fear of reprimand for claiming low tax morale- or unbiased (i.e., truthful) -reflecting the increase positive view of the TRA and own obligations as a result of increased visibility. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the first hypothesis -where businesses are ‘lying to the taxman’ -is more likely, though more research is needed to validate this.

While the intervention does not provide clear results on the causal impact of a temporary, exogenous facilitation and trust based increase in the local presence of a revenue authority on compliance, the implementation itself provides many lessons learned for future experiments. This study was particularly unique since it involved embedding a field experiment within a data collection activity. To our knowledge, no studies exist where tax officials accompany enumerators in data collection to act as observers. This represents a useful exercise in understanding how responses about tax compliance and tax morale are and are not sensitive to _who_ is perceived
be rewarding for host communities. Improved employment outcomes, for instance, boost economic prosperity as indicated by our result of increased asset ownership among hostcommunity members. Existing evidence suggests that employment goes along with other benefits such as improved psychological well-being (for example, Hussam _et al._ , 2022). Improved economic empowerment of women has also been associated with progress toward other development outcomes (e.g., Hsieh _et al._ , 2019). This finding opposes results from public opinion surveys showing that some host-community members are concerned that IDPs will reduce their employment prospects (Pape and Sharma, 2019) and further supports an overwhelming evidence base concerning the favorable implications of refugee integration efforts (Marbach _et al._ , 2018; Fasani _et al._ , 2021).

Our evidence suggests that additional investments in local IDP support systems are required. Development interventions must address the potential male backlash against economically empowered women in the form of increased risk of domestic violence which is reported in this paper. This objective may be achieved in various ways. For instance, timely investments in health and human capital for adolescent girls were shown to reduce intimate partner violence faced by these girls after marriage (Chatterjee and Poddar, 2022). Similarly, providing adolescent girls with vocational training and information on sex, reproduction, and marriage can result in increased bodily integrity (Bandiera _et al._ , 2020).

The observed reduction in women’s acceptance of domestic violence as a result of distant Boko Haram attacks is an encouraging finding and can boost the effectiveness of these investments by helping daughters select into healthier partnerships. Even though the backlash of the partner to increased female employment is not offset by these desirable impacts, the influence of women on their sons is arguably greater, and their sons’ behavior as a partner in a relationship will therefore potentially be different. Women’s reduced acceptance of intimate partner violence may also be directly leveraged in group training for women and men, community-mobilization interventions, and combined livelihood and training interventions
(0.038)|
|S&P rating|0.519***<br>(0.081)|0.163*<br>(0.083)|||
|Relative rating|||0.141*<br>(0.083)|0.212***<br>(0.080)|
|Growth diff.|0.118<br>(0.098)|0.263***<br>(0.087)|0.201**<br>(0.099)|0.260***<br>(0.088)|
|Interest rate diff.|0.120|0.436***|0.028|0.465***|
||(0.117)|(0.117)|(0.117)|(0.118)|
|VIX|-0.030|0.055|-0.116***|0.047|
||(0.040)|(0.040)|(0.041)|(0.039)|
|Country fixed effects|Y|Y|Y|Y|
|No. of obs.|780|859|780|859|
|No. of countries|26|26|26|26|
|Adj. R-squared|0.328|0.237|0.293|0.240|

Notes: All regressions have net capital inflows as the dependent variable and are estimated using a dynamic panel data model with a lagged dependent variable. The sample includes unbalanced quarterly panel data for 26 emerging and frontier market economies for the 1998-2017 period. The pre-crisis period includes Q1 1998-Q2 2008 while the post-crisis period includes Q2 2009-Q4 2017. Heteroskedasticity-consistent robust standard errors are presented in parenthesis. * indicates significance at 10 percent, **
Brookings Institution report on foreign aid summarized this unresolved tension: Aid is being extended, bilaterally and multilaterally, to 100 countries, democratic and authoritarian, allied and neutral, progressing and retrogressing, without satisfactory standards for evaluating competing claims, promoting particular strategies, harmonizing aid with other available instruments of policy, or appraising the results achieved. There is need for a better political, moral and economic framework within which to review our foreign aid programs and to prepare recommendations regarding their future.<sup>6</sup>

> 5 For one more testimony to Hirschman’s sensitivity to the role of historical reconstruction, see his opinion of Marx’s work: “ _The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte_ was a particularly fine work. His historical books were much less orthodox than his economic ones. [...] I like to understand how things happen, how change actually takes place” (Hirschman 1998, p. 67).

> 6 The Brookings Institution, Division of Foreign Policy Studies, “Proposal for a Program of Studies Dealing with American Foreign Assistance”, April 1964 (Revised), p. 5, Barcode 1070156 - Projects and Studies - Projects Evaluation - Professor Albert O. Hirschman - Volume 1, Series No. 4225: Operations policy files - Projects and studies - General Files - General 1946-1968, World Bank Group Archives (henceforth World Bank Hirschman Folders Vol. 1).

7
- [8] Caprio, G., Klingebiel, D., Laeven, L.,Noguera, G., 2003. An update of the Caprio-Klingebiel database (1996, 1999). World Bank website www1.worldbank.org/...nance/html/database_sfd.html.

- [9] Christiano, L., Motto, R., Rostagno, M., 2004. The great depression and Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper no. 10255.

- [10] Cottarelli, C., Dell’Ariccia, G., Vladkova-Hollar, I., 2003. Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans. IMF Working Paper WP/03/213.

- [11] Detragiache, E., Tressel, T., Gupta, P. 2006. Foreign banks in poor countries: theory and evidence. IMF Working Paper WP/06/18.

- [12] Diamond, D.W., 1984. Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring. Review of Economic Studies 51, 393-414.

- [13] Diamond, D.W., Dybvig, P. H., 1983. Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 91, 401-19.

- [14] Diamond, D.W., Rajan, R. G., 2006. Money in a theory of banking. American Economic Review 86, 30-53.

- [15] Disyatat, P., 2008. Monetary Policy Implementation: Misconceptions and their Consequences. BIS working paper No. 269.

- [16] Drehmann, M., Goodhart, C., Krueger, M., 2002. Challenges to currency: will cash resist the e-money challenge?. Economic Policy, April.

- [17] Kashyap, A.K., Rajan, R., Stein, J.C., 2002. Banks
distinction for the “hearts and minds” theory which is considered to be driven as much by a change in perceptions as by actual change.

The follow-up survey used many questions from the baseline survey, but changed the sample for the female individual questionnaire from female focus group participants to wives of male household respondents. Enumerators administering the male household questionnaire were instructed to locate and interview the same households and, whenever possible, the same villagers who participated in the baseline survey. Enumerators were able to successfully locate such respondents in 65 percent of households in which male respondents were interviewed during the baseline survey.<sup>15</sup> Due to deterioration in security conditions, 26 villages (11 treatment and 15 control villages) could not be surveyed during the follow-up survey. Since attrition in the sample was related to security, it cannot be treated as random, despite not being related to treatment status. Thus, although the analysis based on the data from the follow-up survey provides internally valid estimates of the average treatment effect for villages that were secure enough to be surveyed, the results cannot be generalized to villages inaccessible due to security.

# **V.3. Security Incidents**

Data on security incidents come from the ISAF Combined Information Data Network Exchange (CIDNE) database which includes the date, time, location, and type of events as reported by ISAF soldiers and affiliates.<sup>16</sup> The data contain information on security incidents in the 10 districts between March 2003 and March 2010. There were 535 security incidents prior to the start of NSP mobilization in October 2007 and 688 incidents after. Almost all the incidents are caused by Improvised Explosive Devices (IED), with 45 percent of incidents being IED explosions and 53 percent being cases where an IED was found and cleared. Only two percent of incidents were related to mine strikes.

The data was used to construct dummy variables that indicate whether there was at least one security incident starting from October 2007 within a certain radius of