rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
this problem in the high rates of unemployment in high‐income economies, such as the Eurozone. But the problem is beginning to show up even in middle‐income nations, such as China. As Simon Denyer (2016, p. A11) recently notes, referring to a study of 600 factories in Guangdong by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and Tsinghua University, “although the profits picture was mixed, companies had trimmed their workforce by 3.7 percent in 2014. Labor‐ intensive sectors were hit the hardest, with employment in textiles falling more than 10 percent.” Among emerging economies, this will create a divergence of performance, with the ones able to organize and take advantage of labor‐linking technologies to develop and grow. But down the road, as the advance of labor‐saving technology continues, this will be a challenge the world over; and we will have to think of new policies to tackle a global problem. This will be discussed briefly in the last section.

The rise of labor‐saving and labor‐shifting technology would not matter much if the resultant increased earnings, such as from profits and patents, were equitably distributed, because it would simply mean that people would work less and enjoy the bounties of new technology as visualized by several philosophers, from Plato and Thomas More to Rabindranath Tagore and Bertrand Russell. But the amount of work, far from decreasing, has actually risen, because the shrinking demand for labor has been met with harder work by those who have no share in the dividends of the new technology and live by their labor alone (Piketty 2013). This constitutes the core of the policy challenge that we certainly will not solve in a day, but needs to be initiated in debates and discussion on policy, for not to solve this is to blight the chances of sustainable development.

# **2. Technological Change and the Share of Wages**

One of the most troubling statistical trends in recent times that has received scant attention
WPS3857

# **Trade liberalization, factor market flexibility, and growth:**

# **The case of Morocco and Tunisia**

# Allen Dennis<sup>1</sup>

_In recent years there has been an increasing recognition of the importance of complementary policies in enhancing the benefits of a more open trade regime. This study focuses on the importance of factor market flexibility to trade reforms. Using the GTAP model and database, the results show that the welfare impact of trade reform is contingent on the flexibility of factor markets, with higher welfare gains occurring where factor markets are more flexible, and vice-versa. Defining two extreme factor market scenarios over Morocco and Tunisia, we find that the welfare gains of trade reforms under conditions of flexible factor markets can be as much as six times the gains compared to a rigid factor market scenario. This is so because whereas trade reforms may improve the incentive structure for resource re-allocation, the extent to which resources move from less efficient to more efficient sectors of an economy is dependent on the degree of flexibility of factor markets._

# World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3857, March 2006

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org._

> 1 Comments received from Andrew Stone (MNSIF) and Zoubida Allaoua (MNSIF) have been helpful in the revision of this paper. Ernesto Valenzuela (DECRG) and Maros Ivanic (DECRG) have also been helpful on the modelling aspects of the study
and by the products’ actual tax rates and sums these across all products in the declaration.<sup>18</sup> This measure has the advantage of using prices that are more likely to be exogenous to tax evasion in Madagascar.<sup>19</sup> Two additional measures of hypothetical tax revenue losses are constructed for two subsets of declarations. For declarations for which port authority weight data is available, hypothetical tax yield is constructed also correcting for underreporting of quantities assuming that the measured port authority weight is correct.<sup>20</sup> For declarations for which GasyNet’s valuation advice was issued, hypothetical tax yield is constructed as the declaration’s advised value multiplied by the average tax rate. As determinants of corruption (and subsequently as controls for evasion risk) we rely on the following _ex-ante_ risk characteristics of the import declaration: the tax rate (tariffs and other taxes), the risk score, a dummy for the red channel, a dummy for being a mixed shipment (i.e., one that includes different items), the share of differentiated products as per Rauch (1999)’s classification, and a dummy for

> 18A HS 6-digit product’s weight is obtained by summing across the weights of all corresponding items. A HS 6-digit product’s tax rate is obtained as the ratio between the sum of actual taxes and the sum of finally declared import value across all corresponding items.

> 19Firms behind a given export flow might conspire with importers in Madagascar issuing fake invoices for them to minimize their tax liabilities. In addition, export unit prices may be downward biased since they are typically recorded as Free On Board (FOB) whereas import prices are recorded Cost Insurance Freight (CIF) and hence include transportation and insurance costs.

> 20We cannot correct quantities declared at the item level since port authority weight is available only for the declaration as a whole. By implication we are assuming that the weight of all items in a declaration is
is 70 years). There is also research on the “credit spread puzzle” for corporate bonds, typically using data from the past 30 years.<sup>13</sup> The high excess returns on external sovereign bonds have received much less attention, in large part because earlier studies found little evidence of excess returns in the first place (Section 2).

Because we quantify the outcome of each default episode, our analysis moves away from the typical binary approach in the literature where a country is either in default or it is not. Like for currency or inflation crises, orders of magnitude matter. We measure the magnitude of these “credit events” both in terms of haircuts and in terms of amounts in default, which allows identifying the shades of gray across countries and time.<sup>14</sup> The data show that credit events in this market are best described as partial defaults with re-contracting, in the spirit of Bulow and Rogoff (1989), rather than as full defaults, as is typically

> 12 Barro and Ursua (2008) use returns data starting in the late 19th century for about 30 countries using Global Financial Data (GFD) as source. Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton (2001) and Jordà et al. (2017) cover 16 countries, starting in 1900 and 1870, respectively. All three contributions use annual data, as do Mehra and Prescott (1985), who focus on the United States, 1889-1978. We use monthly data and start in 1815, with a country sample starting from a dozen in the 19th century and growing over time.

> 13 Chen, Collin-Dufresne, and Goldstein (2009) and Chen (2010) study the credit spread puzzle for corporate debt and summarize the literature on this issue. Asquith, Mullins, and Wolff (1989) is an early study on the high excess returns on US junk bonds.

> 14 There is already ample data on the occurrence and duration of sovereign defaults (e.g
’ value of the preferences. To construct the variable the difference between the third country duty and the preferential duty payable was calculated and multiplied by all eligible trade. The data on preferential and MFN tariffs was obtained from the European Commission.

In many aspects, such as size of the economy or the level of development, South Africa differs from most of the other countries in our sample. In order to avoid that specificities of South Africa is driving our results a dummy taking the value 1 if the exporting country is South Africa is included in the regressions. Dutydifferencek is the difference between MFN and preferential

> 15 See further details on the methodology of the index: http://www.freedomhouse.org/research/freeworld/2003/methodology.htm. 16 Only four countries were not colonies in our sample.

18
,362|7,390|
|Other Manufacturing<br>34,113|41,380|6,111|10,153|
|Total<br>1 <sup>, </sup>6 7 4 <sup>, </sup>3 4 0 <sup>c</sup>|2,002,510|8,032|9,271|

a) converted at **the** official exchange rate of 12.50 pesos to one US **$.** b) includes 25,989 employees in petroleum refining which is an industry not covered in the industrial census Resumen General, but taken from SPP (1981). c) excludes 69,445 head office and auxiliary personnel.

Sources: As for table 2.3
Gaddis, Isis and Stephan Klasen (2014) “Economic Development, Structural Change, and Women’s Labor Force Participation: A Reexamination of the Feminization U Hypothesis.” _Journal of Population Economics_ 27(3): 639–81.

Goldin, Claudia (1995), “The U-Shaped Female Labor Force Function in Economic Development and Economic History.” In: Schultz TP Investment in Women’s Human Capital and Economic Development. University of Chicago Press; 1995. pp. 61-90.

Gonzales, Christian, Sonali Jain-Chandra, Kalpana Kochhar, and Monique Newiak (2015) “Fair Play: More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation” _IMF Staff Discussion Note_ SDN/15/02 Klasen, Stephan (2002), “Low Schooling for Girls, Slower Growth for All? Cross-Country Evidence on the Effect of Gender Inequality in Education on Economic Development.” _World Bank Economic Review_ 16(3): 345–73 Klasen, Stephan and Dana Schüler (2011) “Reforming the Gender-Related Development Index and the Gender Empowerment Measure: Implementing Some Specific Proposals.” _Feminist Economics_ 17(1): 1–30 Klasen, Stephan and Francesca Lamanna (2009) “The Impact of Gender Inequality in Education and Employment on Economic Growth in Developing Countries: New Evidence for a Panel of Countries.” _Feminist Economics_ 15(3): 91–132.

Knowles, Stephen, Paula K. Lorgelly, and P. Dorian Owen (2002) “Are Educational Gender Gaps a Brake on Economic Development? Some Cross-Country Empirical Evidence.” _Oxford Economic Papers_ 54(1): 118–49.

Lagerlof, Nils-Petter (2003), “Gender Equality and Long-Run Growth” _Journal of Economic Growth_ 8:403-426 Lopez-Claros, Augusto and Saadia Zahidi (2005), Women’s Empowerment: Measuring the Global Gender Gap. Geneva: World Economic Forum.

Maitra, Pushkar (2004) “Parental bargaining, health inputs and child mortality in India.” _Journal of Health Economics_ , 23(2), 259
are the unbanked?**

Our measure of financial inclusion is ownership of an account—that can be used to store money and send or receive payments—at a regulated financial institution, including mobile money service providers. Looking at all countries covered in the database, the Global Findex 2021 data finds that globally, 76 percent of adults surveyed had a financial account in 2021—a 50 percent increase from 2011, when only 51 percent of the global adult population had an account.<sup>3</sup> Yet, about 1.4 billion adults—or 24 percent of adults—worldwide remain without a financial account (Figure 1) or are _unbanked_ . The share of unbanked as a percent of the population varies significantly across countries (Table A.1). While there are, on average, virtually no unbanked in high income countries (4 percent on average), the share increases to 29 percent in developing countries, ranging from 2 percent in Mongolia to a staggering 94 percent in South Sudan.

> 3 The Global Findex defines a “financial account” as any account with a regulated financial institution, such as a bank, credit union, microfinance institution, or mobile money provider.

8
<br>Indirect losses (US$b)<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Figure 3. Indirect (output) losses as a function of direct (asset) losses, in Louisiana for Katrina-like disasters of increasing magnitude. The red curve signifies indirect losses. Source: (Hallegatte, 2008).**

Such non-linear relationships lead to large and long-term reductions in growth and lost output and may lead potentially to macro level poverty traps, with entire regions falling into a vicious circle leading the economy toward a lower growth equilibrium and reducing development capacity (Hallegatte et al., 2007). Such poverty traps can be explained by the amplifying feedbacks presented in Figure 4. Many regions have limited capacity to rebuild after a disaster. If the region is regularly affected, it may not have enough time

> 7 The model is based on input-output tables, considers sector production capacities, forward and backward propagations within the economic systems, and adaptive behaviors. For more information, see (Hallegatte, 2008) 8 Note the aggregation hides important disparities among sectors and social categories.

9
. Depending on their match-specific productivity draws, they continue (or separate) and share rents via Nash-bargaining; iii) workers accumulate human capital through learning-by-doing on the job and skills are not transferable across sectors. Old workers in the import-competing sector are thus more likely to bear the costs of adjustment.

Cosar (2010) calibrates this model using Brazilian data and then works out different labor market policies to deal with trade adjustment costs. He finds that sector-specific human capital is a bigger impediment to mobility than labor market frictions (search and matching). In terms of policies, he compares an unemployment insurance program (similar to one actually implemented in Brazil in 1988) and a targeted employment subsidy paid to the initial old employed in the previously protected industry conditional on working in the export-oriented industry. The results show that the unemployment insurance (actual policy) experiment leads to an output loss during the transition by hampering what the economy needs most: reallocation and skill formation in the expanding sector. On the other hand, the employment subsidy (counterfactual policy) experiment suggests that it is possible to not only redistribute income toward workers harmed by the liberalization, but also to increase net output during the transition. The subsidy mitigates the market failure due to the learning externality: the underinvestment in skill formation is especially problematic during the transition which is a time for human capital build-up in the export-oriented industry. A policy that rewards work and mobility for workers adversely affected by trade not only compensates them, but it also speeds up the transition and helps the economy reap the gains from trade earlier on.

Dix-Carneiro (2010) also explicitly models labor market policies. Unlike Cosar (2010), the author finds that the costs of mobility are more important than sector-specific experience in explaining the slow adjustment of the labor market. This is because Dix-Carneiro allows experience to be imperfectly transferable (while Cosar assumes non-transferable experience) and estimates the degree of

> 14 Note that the costs of re-tooling workers or of adapting capital as well as the efficiency losses from, for
# **<mark>Summary</mark>**

**Introduction** : In Latin America, there are about two million people living with HIV, and the epidemic is concentrated in key populations that have a high risk for infection. Various sources of information have been used in recent years to understand the region’s HIV epidemic and its determinants.  Recognizing the crucial value of evidence as the basis for strategic planning and the monitoring of results, ASAP has worked with Ministries of Health in eight Latin American countries to compile regional HIV data generated over the past 15 years.  ASAP organized the information from each country in a document entitled “ _Database and References for an Evidence Based Strategy”._ In a second phase, ASAP analyzed the methodological quality of this data to ascertain its scope and limitations, its reliability, and the extent to which it is feasible to compare findings across multiple studies. In order to carry out this assessment, a tool developed by ASAP was used, in both a questionnaire and checklist format.

**Objectives:** To present the conceptual framework, methodology and application methods of a tool that analyzes the methodological quality of data; to share, through practical examples, the results of implementing this methodology in the Andean Region.

**Methodology:** For the characterization and analysis, the studies first identify: (i) the type of document; (ii) the status and means of publication; (iii) the epidemiological design used; and (iv) the priority population.  Next, the document is analyzed against a verification list based on the following eight methodological criteria:

- 1) Clear and coherent objective, in accordance with the development of the study;

- 2) Definition of inclusion and exclusion criteria;

- 3) Sample size;

- 4) Sampling technique;

- 5) Strategies to reduce data collection errors;

- 6) Data analysis technique;

- 7) Evaluation of limitations imposed by the methodology; and

- 8) Expressions
# **I. Introduction**

UN General Assembly Sustainable Development Goal 1— _End poverty in all its forms_ by 2030— explicitly pledges that “no one will be left behind.” To achieve this goal, the availability of highquality household consumption surveys is essential, and it is equally important for these surveys to be inclusive and cover marginal populations, such as refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Unfortunately, household consumption surveys rarely include forcibly displaced populations, despite that these populations are among the most vulnerable and deprived. They lack fundamental rights such as freedom of movement and the right to work, have eroded human and physical capital, and face more frequent shocks than surrounding host communities do.

This is a significant and growing challenge, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The global number of forcibly displaced persons grew from 43.3 million in 2009 to 70.8 million in 2018. Among them, there are 25.9 million refugees, 3.5 million asylum seekers, and 40.3 million IDPs. Almost four out of five refugees live in a country neighboring their home country, and some 84% of them live in developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa hosts around one-third of the world’s refugee population and witnessed an increase of 1.1 million refugees in 2017, which represents a 22% increase from 2016. In 2018, Sub-Saharan African countries represented half of the 10 countries with the highest refugee population relative to the national population and six of the 10 countries with the highest numbers of IDPs. The region also has the highest poverty rates in the world, and data for the region are typically scarce or of low quality. Therefore, measuring poverty among displaced populations in Sub-Saharan Africa is a particularly important task that is severely hampered by missing household consumption data.<sup>2</sup> <mark>There is an established literature in statistics that has developed methods to impute missing data (see Little and Rubin (2002) for a review of these methods). Survey-to-survey
Policy Research Working Paper 10119

# **Abstract**

This paper considers the political influence of private firms. While such influence is frequently discussed, there is limited analysis of how firms combine political interactions, and under what conditions, to gain influence. The exception is the large literature on firms with political connections, with findings generally showing large gains to firms with those direct relationships. This paper extends the discussion of influence beyond political connections alone and uses a rich firm-level data set from 41 economies, which includes information on several interactions with political actors. Using a Bayesian item response theory (IRT) measurement model, an index of Political Influence is estimated, with the prior assumption that political connections yield more influence. Membership in a business association is found to enhance influence, while such influence is offset by bribes, state ownership, firm size, and a reliance on collective lobbying. Political Influence is found to be broadly higher in economies with poorer governance but more dispersed in those with better governance. Within economies, higher influence is associated with a higher likelihood of reporting a small number of competitors, higher sales, and lower labor inputs relative to sales. These findings are robust across several models that incorporate high-dimensional fixed effects, incorporating measurement error in the index, and varying these relationships over several governance measures.

This paper is a product of the Global Indicators Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted atdfrancis@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be
World Bank Gender Norms Survey 2006<br>90 Older Women (45-60)<br>80 Younger Women (15-25)<br>70 Men (25-50)<br>60<br>50<br>40<br>30<br>20<br>10<br>0<br>Women and girls are never Woman (or wife) feels safe<br>harassed in the community in the settlement at any<br>time<br>%<br><!-- End of picture text --> Anecdotal evidence and evidence from small samples suggests that violence against women outside the home could also be related to inter-family disputes regarding property. The issue of acid attacks against women for instance, has featured prominently in the media. In 2004, 228 cases of acid burns were reported in the media and 88 cases were filed. Of these 88 filed cases, 25 girls and women were burnt because of family disputes, and 36 girls and women were burnt because of land disputes. Twenty one cases were the result of the woman‘s refusal to accept a man‘s proposal of love/marriage or sexual relationship<sup>8</sup> . Thus, property disputes and violence against women are often related.

_The low level of conflict between households may come as a surprise to many_ – including advocates of strengthening the justice system in Bangladesh. However, this is not peculiar to Bangladesh. A recent nationally representative survey in India asked a similar question and also found a very high perception of harmony. The same survey also asked if a theft, break-in a physical attack or threat of attack had occurred in the last year. Less than 3 percent of the households had experienced any of these events in the last year.<sup>9</sup>

> 7 On issues of measurement of intra-family violence and perception of security, see World Bank, 2008

> 8 D‘Costa, 2004

> 9 Sonalde Desai (personal communication