rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
profit rates. These positive payoffs support evidence that innovation fosters plant performance for the Chilean dataset in line with the conclusions of the existing literature.<sup>14</sup> Importantly, these positive payoffs provide validation to our novel product innovation measures, as their relationship with plant performance is consistent with that identified based on more traditionally used R&D and perceptionbased innovation indicators.

# **3. Model Specification**

In order to correctly identify the effects of innovation (and other plant characteristics) on plant survival, it is necessary to consider a hazard or duration model whose dependent variable is the time/spell between plant entry and exit (the survival spell).<sup>15</sup> The use of a hazard model is adequate for plant survival analysis due to the incomplete nature of the duration information. The hazard function represents the conditional probability of a plant ending a survival spell after _t_ periods, given that it survived until _t-1_ , (the elapsed duration of the survival spell) and given plant characteristics.

By contrast, when conventional estimation methods such as probit or OLS - the latter also called linear probability - are applied to the estimation of a plant exit model, they are in effect studying the unconditional probability of the event (e.g., the probability that a plant exits after 5 years in operation) rather than its conditional probability (e.g., the probability that a plant exits after 5 years in operation conditional on having survived until year 4). Kiefer (1988) introduces a useful sports analogy to illustrate the substantial difference between concepts and why the conditional probability approach is conceptually appropriate to address our research questions. In sports team competitions in which elimination happens when the team loses, the probability of surviving in the second round is the probability of winning conditional on making it to the second round, whereas the unconditional probability is defined in terms of a single event, i.e., the probability of winning the second round match. Similarly
## **5.6 Robustness**

In the Appendix we discuss the robustness of our core results for each age cohort to: (i) using randomization inference to test the null of no treatment effects; (ii) adjusting for multiple hypothesis testing; (iii) only controlling for district fixed effects (that are the randomization strata); (iv) using alternative measures of the intensity of Ebola-related disruption. Our core pattern of results are robust to these checks and permutations.

# **6 Discussion**

Viruses are a major threat to human health: over the last century, more deaths have been caused by viruses than all armed conflict combined [Adda 2016]. Given that the long run incidence of highly infectious diseases will be shaped by urbanization and rising global temperatures (and offset by advancement in medical technologies), they are expected to remain a worldwide threat.<sup>42</sup> In this paper, given the nature of timing between our pre-planned evaluation of ELA, and the coincidental outbreak of Ebola just as our baseline survey was completing, our study presents a unique opportunity to understand the microeconomic mechanisms through which this kind of aggregate shock impacts the economic lives of young women.

We conclude by discussing three open issues for future research: the impacts of the intervention on health outcomes related to the epidemic, the behavior of men during the crisis, and policy implications going forward.

## **6.1 Health**

Community engagement is one important component in successfully controlling disease outbreaks. As such, the crisis might open up new forms of community organization, such as ELA clubs, to help organize and coordinate actions to control the epidemic. Does this have any measurable impact on Ebola related health outcomes? Table 12 examines the possibility, where impacts are identified from the endline cross-section because only then did we ask respondents about Ebola experiences, and so we do not control for baseline outcomes.<sup>43</sup>

> 42Smallpox has caused the
other policy measures, such as pricing and fiscal measures, would be necessary to reduce CO2 and local air pollutants from the brick industry. However, before the government considers pricing policies, it is necessary to understand the technical as well as economic feasibility of those policies. No rigorous and quantitative analyses are available for Nepal in this area. This study aims to contribute to filling the knowledge gaps.

The main objective of this study is to examine the economics of various technologies and fuels for clay-fired brick production, such as the adoption or retrofit of energy-efficient technologies, application of cleaner renewable (zero carbon) biomass fuels (e.g., sustainable fuel wood, wood pellets/chips, sawdust, and bagasse), and electric technology. This study also examines the economics of resource-efficient bricks<sup>10</sup> (e.g., Compressed Stabilized Earth Blocks (CSEB) and Hollow Concrete Block (HCB)) and modification of brick-based buildings with other sustainable alternatives (e.g., wood-frame structures with plywood for roof, wall, and floor buildings) in reducing harmful air pollution by reducing demand for clay-fired bricks in the future. The study conducted economic analysis from both private and social perspectives based on a techno-economic analysis framework for the brick industry. The study also utilizes the information collected through a rapid field-visit survey, physical observations of 22 brick kilns selected across the country, and consultation with brick industry experts in Nepal (Timilsina and Malla, 2023).

The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly introduces Nepal’s brick industry, followed by methodological development in Section 3. Data collection through a survey is briefly discussed in Section 4. The main results along with sensitivity analyses are presented in Section 5. Section 6 presents policy implications/recommendations. Section 7 concludes the paper.

# **2. Overview of Nepal’s Brick Industry**

In 2018, there were about 1,349 operating brick kilns in Nepal,<sup>11</sup
Policy Research Working Paper 10257

# **Abstract**

Generating timely data to identify the poorest villages in developing countries remains a fundamental challenge for existing data systems. This paper investigates the accuracy of four alternative methods for predicting a measure of village economic welfare for approximately 4,500 villages in 10 poor Malawian districts: (1) proxy means test scores calculated from the 2017 social registry, (2) the Meta Relative Wealth Index, (3) predictions derived from a standard household survey and publicly available geospatial indicators, and (4) predictions derived from a two-step approach that first predicts welfare into a hypothetical partial registry of approximately 450 villages, and then predicts welfare - into the remaining villages using geospatial indicators. Geo spatial indicators include land coverage indicators, weather data, night light data, building patterns, distance to major roads, and population density. Predictions are evaluated against a benchmark village welfare measure, constructed by imputing log per capita consumption from the 2016 integrated household survey into the 2018 household census using gradient boosting. Incorporating the hypothetical partial registry vastly improves the performance of the predictions. When using the partial registry, the rank correlation between the predicted and benchmark welfare measures is 0.75, while those for the other three methods range from −0.02 to 0.2, and similar results are seen when examining the area under the curve. Doubling the size of the partial registry does little to improve predictive performance. The results are robust to using a linear post–Least Absolute Selection and Shrinkage Operator model instead of gradient boosting for prediction. However, predictions using both methods are less accurate when the benchmark welfare measure is derived from a linear post–Least Absolute Selection and Shrinkage Operator model. Overall, the results strongly suggest that collecting partial registries of household-level poverty predictors in low-income contexts can vastly improve the performance of machine learning models that combine survey and satellite imagery for the purpose of village-level targeting.

This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice and the Social Protection and Jobs
central government (such as individual guarantees or reinsurance extended to various agencies operating on behalf of government). The official 3-year fiscal forecast includes expected outlays on contingent government liabilities. State Debt Management Office reports the full list of state guarantees from a comprehensive database of public liabilities, and reviews the terms of new guarantee contracts. MOF submits to the Parliament reports on the potential cost of both newly considered and existing programs of contingent government support, and audited balance sheets of state-guaranteed agencies. The State Audit Office is authorized to review government activities under both direct spending and contingent support programs, the adequacy of budgetary provisions and reserve funds with respect to risk exposure, and the management of contingent as well as direct explicit liabilities. National Bank of Hungary has expanded its monitoring of potential fiscal risks in the private sector. In inter-government finance and the banking sector, regul-atory and

- 22 To a somewhat lesser extent than in other central European countries, but much more than in the OECD community.

- 23 For detailed discussion on budget management reforms see Bokros and Dethier, 1998.

37
expectations, soon disappointed most of them. Furthermore, the Bank all but ignored the final outcome of his project, the 1967 book, and especially disliked its first chapter, “The principle of the hiding hand,” which was widely circulated after appearing as a separate article in Daniel Bell’s and Irving Kristol’s journal _The Public Interest_ (Hirschman 1967a and 1967b). In particular, Hirschman’s insistence on uncertainty as a structural element in the decision-making process did not fit in well with the operational drive of Bank economists and engineers.

This paper is based mostly on previously undisclosed archival material from the World Bank Archives and the Albert Hirschman papers held at Princeton University. It will tell the story of the genesis, development, and conclusion of Hirschman's collaboration with the World Bank, and discuss its relevance for the postwar history of development. The study of these dynamics 3
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D., Ansar, S., and Hess, J. (2018). _The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution_ . Washington, DC: World Bank.

- Espinoza-Delgado, J. and Klasen, S. (2018). ‘Gender and Multidimensional Poverty in Nicaragua. An Individual Based Approach’, _World Development,_ Vol. 110: 46691.

- Fiddian-Qasmiyeh, E. (2014). ‘Gender and Forced Migration’, in Loescher, G., Long, K., Sigona, N., and Fiddian-Qasmiyeh, E. (eds.) _The Oxford Handbook of Refugee and Forced Migration Studies_ . Oxford: Oxford University Press.

- Fukuda-Parr, S. (1999). ‘What does feminization of poverty mean? It isn’t just lack of income.’ _Feminist Economics_ , 5(2), 99–103. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 135457099337996.

- García, S. and Ritterbusch, A. (2015). ‘Child poverty in Colombia: Construction of a multidimensional measure using a Mixed-Method approach’, _Child Indicators Research_ , 8(4), pp. 801–823.

- Hong, G., Kim, S., Park, G., and Sim, S-G. (2019). ‘Female Education. Externality and Inclusive Growth’, _Sustainability,_ Vol. 11, No. 12: 3344.

- IDMC. (2020). _Global Report on Internal Displacement: GRID 2020_ . Geneva: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.

- ILO. (2020). _Employment and decent work in refugee and other forced displacement contexts: Compendium of ILO’s lessons learned, emerging good practices and policy guidance_ . Geneva: International Labour Office.

- ILO. (2018). _World Employment Social Outlook: Trends for Women 2018, Global snapshot_ . Geneva: International Labour Office.

International Organization for
|VSBK|14|14|17|13|15|13|15|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|HK|20|19|21|17|19|17|19|
|TK|45|44|46|42|43|42|44|

Source: Field Survey (Timilsina and Malla, 2023) <!-- Start of picture text --> 26.9<br>3.4<br>2.4<br>1.7 1.9<br>0.7<br>CK FC BTK ZZK VSBK HK TK<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Figure 2. Average capital investment (chimney) cost by technology (NRs/brick)**

<!-- Start of picture text --> 25<br>CK FC BTK ZZK VSBK HK TK<br>20<br>15<br>10<br>5<br>Koshi Bagmati Lumbini Nepal<br>Madesh Gandaki Sudurpachim<br>0<br>Fuel cost (coal) per brick (NRs)<br><!-- End of picture text -->

**Figure 3. Average energy (coal) cost by kiln technology and province (NRs/brick)**

At the technology level, the total cost of brick production varies widely across the provinces. The total brick production cost from TKs is the highest (NRs 44 per brick) and the VSBK is the lowest (NRs 15 per brick). Most of the operational brick kilns in the country are FC 13
Interacting men’s and women’s rights with the prevalent inheritance regime leaves estimates of impacts of female bequest rights on organic manure use virtually unchanged (see Table 5), while pointing towards no significant difference between matrilineal and patrilineal systems. Significant coefficients on women’s right to sell land in non-matrilineal systems suggest, however, that in such a regime, women’s ability to sell land further increases the likelihood of long-term investment. With a point estimate of 0.24, the estimated effects of increasing sales rights are meaningful economically. By comparison, the significance of estimated effects of male bequest rights on cash crop adoption weaken slightly in this specification.

# **4.2 Comparing results from self-reporting to indirect reporting**

As the size of the IHS4 sample exceeds that of the IHPS by an order of magnitude, it should, in the absence of measurement error, result in more precise coefficient estimates of the impact of land right variables included in both surveys. Inability to replicate results from the IHPS using the full or restricted IHS4 samples in most cases points towards the presence of not only measurement error but also strategic response bias. Tables 6 through 8 report the results from estimating equations (2) and (3) with the IHS4 data, with a focus on the bequest and sale rights. Columns 2 and 5 of each table include the results based on the full IHS4 sample; columns 3 and 6 include the results based on the sample of IHS4 respondents who report to be (co-)owners; and columns 1 and 4 include the results based on the IHPS sample for comparison purposes.

While both the IHPS and the full IHS4 samples point towards weakly significant positive effects of bequest rights on use of organic manure, the estimated coefficient is much smaller for the full IHS4 sample and loses significance if only owner-respondents are considered (Table 6). The estimated effects of land rights on cash crop production are insignificant throughout. The loss of significance is consistent with the notion that relying on one
diary, effectively blurring the line between consumption data collected by diary and by recall interview. This mediation by interviewers is especially likely since most diary surveys instruct interviewers to return every few days to update the diary in cases where it may not be completed by household members, such as in households with no literate adults.

While well-implemented diary surveys might be expected to yield higher (and presumably closer to actual) levels of consumption, experimental evidence for this from developing countries is fragmentary. In urban Papua New Guinea, Gibson (1999) found that mean total expenditure per capita was 14 percent higher (and food consumption 26 percent higher) using a diary rather than a recall survey. However, preliminary comparisons of consumption from the Bosnia and Herzegovina LSMS (recall) survey with the household budget survey (diary) in 2004 show levels to be similar (World Bank, 2006).

These studies pertain to household-level diaries and thus do not address an important source of mis-measurement – the difficulty of a sole respondent to perfectly capture total household consumption. Personal diaries are generally considered better for obtaining complete household expenditure or consumption data because it is unusual, in most societies, for any one household member to know the expenditure/consumption of every other member, especially on items such as alcohol, tobacco, daily travel, personal toiletries, daily newspapers/magazines, and meals (especially snacks and lunches) eaten outside the home. In Russia, as part of an effort to study the reliability of the Household Budget Survey, a random sample of households in the 3<sup>rd</sup> quarter of 2003 were assigned personal diaries rather than the household diary. The personal diary yielded expenditure levels which were 6-11 percent higher than a household diary (World Bank, 2005). However, the personal diary was plagued with non-respondent problems in this experiment; about 54 percent of households assigned the personal diary did not complete it. Personal diaries also create the possibility of inadvertent double-counting of items consumed in common but reported separately by
.1.2 Nutrient intake_

Nutrient intake calculation is based on the quantities consumed by HIES food items and nutrient values are derived from from the Food Composition Table for Bangladesh (FCT) (Shaheen et al. 2013) and FoodData Central.<sup>3</sup> Macro- and micronutrient intake were also summed up to the seven broad food groups level by food categories.

# _2.1.3 Food items_

Not all food items in HIES were included in this analysis, considering the necessity of matching HIES items to trade and GHG footprint data for later environmental cost analysis. To guarantee that all dietary models have the same food items, and all these items participate in both nutritional estimation and environmental health estimation, we only kept HIES items that satisfy the following requirements:

- 1) The item belongs to a group that is in both FBDG and EAT-Lancet benchmarks.

- 2) The item has counterpart in the corresponding year’s Food Balance Sheet (FBS), or at least can be converted to primary equivalents that have trade record in the corresponding year.

- 3) The item has counterpart in the corresponding year’s detailed Trade Matrix (TM) data set. If a given item has FBS record but no TM record, this item is deemed as imported from the

> 2 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2000/2016. Ministry of Planning, Government of Bangladesh. Data requests can be made at dg@bbs.gov.bd.

> 3 U.S. Department of Agriculture. Food Data Central. Available at: https://fdc.nal.usda.gov/.

4
., World Bank 2017), monetary poverty potentially has less meaning in a setting where nearly everyone is poor, and the vast majority of people are facing extreme challenges in sustaining life. However, each of these non‐monetary dimensions of welfare each has an important meaning in this setting, and the degree to which each of them overlaps is an indicator of the amount of stress faced by an individual household.

**Figure 5.  Food Coping Strategies Before and After the Blockade**

<!-- Start of picture text --> Average Number of Days Households Relied on<br>Food Coping Strategies<br>3.65<br>3.15<br>2.65<br>2.15<br>1.65<br>Less Expensive Borrow for Food Reduce Meals Limit Porti Restrict<br>Food Consumption<br>Before Blockade Total Blockade Partial Blockade<br><!-- End of picture text --> Source: WFP Mobile Phone Survey, November 2017.

16
*||
|||(0.08)||
|_Import share_|||0.397***|
||||(0.06)|
|_Foreign ownership share_|0.418***|0.482***|0.472***|
||(0.04)|(0.04)|(0.04)|
|_ln (# skilled workers at t-1)_|-0.130***|-0.142***|-0.127***|
||(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.02)|
|_ln (years of top mgmt)_|0.139***|0.135***|0.139***|
||(0.02)|(0.01)|(0.02)|
|_ln (firm size)_|0.241***|0.254***|0.258***|
||(0.02)|(0.02)|(0.02)|
|_Services_|3.167***|0.942***|3.071***|
||(0.12)|(0.10)|(0.12)|
|Year FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|City-year FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Sector-year FE|Yes|Yes|Yes|
|Observations|30,415|34,860|30,451|
|R-squared|0.196|0.181|0.192|

8 These two variables are not quite the same as the GVC participation of the firm, but very much capture the same concept. We are limited by the variables in the WBES.
al., 2024). Consistent with this story, urban employment increases unemployment for the youngest adults Table A13, with much smaller changes for older adults (Table A14 and A15).

Second, higher levels of population in rural areas appear to lead households to work in lower-tier informal jobs, possibly due to a lack of (high-paying) jobs in rural areas. Larger rural population, controlling for urban population, is associated with moderate shifts from formal wage work and upper tier self-employment to lower tier informal self-employment, indicating a concentration of employment in the lowest tier of the ladder. We also look at whether the relationship varies by country income groups: we find that urbanization is significantly associated with shifts from informal to formal wage jobs only in HICs and that the positive relationship with unemployment is driven by HICs. Interestingly, in UMICs larger rural populations are positively associated with shifts from lower-tier informal self-employment to upper tier self-employment and to movements up the job ladder in HICs. In the appendix we present results without heteroskedasticity weighting in Table A18. The main findings, especially around unemployment, remain.

Next, we investigate whether the share of the workforce working in larger firms impact the quality of jobs available. We turn to this question in Table 7 , which shows how the share of workers in each job ladder rung changes based on the proportion of the workers in firms of different sizes. The omitted category is the share of employment in firms with five or fewer employees, meaning that all coefficients can be interpreted relative to that group.

29