rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
# 3.2 Household Demographics

The four refugee groups and host communities differ in terms of gender of household head, age, and gender composition. Overall, it is notable that there are more adult women than men from each of the refugee groups – except Sudan. At the same time the majority of refugees are children, meaning very high dependency ratios as well as childcare responsibilities. In general, host communities have a higher proportion of adults than the four refugee groups. All refugee groups except Eritreans have higher percentages of children than host communities.

The South Sudanese refugee household are distinct because more than 90% refugee households are headed by women, whereas the majority of Eritrean, Somali, and Sudanese refugee households are headed by men (Figure 2). This arises because only 6% of South Sudanese refugees are adult men (Figure 3). According to Pape et al. (2018), the missing men among South Sudanese could be partly explained by the fact that adult men may be more likely to join the conflict or be recruited by armed groups; indeed 30% of survey respondents identified recruitment by armed groups as the main factor for family separation. However, similar patterns were also observed among the Sudanese (World Bank Group, 2019).

Another important difference is that Eritrean refugees have more working age men (who could be fleeing conscription), and there is a higher adult share among Eritreans.

<!-- Start of picture text --> 60<br>50<br>40<br>30<br>20<br>10<br>0<br>Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female<br>Refugee Host Community South Sudanese Somalis Eritreans Sudanese<br>Children (0-14) Youth (15-24) Adults (25-64) Elderly (>65)<br><!-- End of picture text --> Sources: Author Calculation using Skills Profile Survey (2017), Ethiopia and _Pape et al.
measure.<sup>26</sup> The interest rate is measured by the e↵ective federal funds rate and the inflation rate is defined as the growth rate of the consumer price index.

In practice, labor productivities and the real price of capital investment are nonstationary. To overcome this problem, we follow the common practice of first di↵erencing. The measures of per capita hours also exhibit some nonstationarity. This feature is also documented in previous studies that examine quarterly data (e.g. Gal ́ı, 1999, Francis and Ramey, 2005, Gal ́ı and Rabanal, 2005, and Fisher, 2006). The nonstationarity of per capita hours is even more evident at annual frequencies. As Fisher (2002) points out, the appropriate way to include per capita hours into the analysis is a matter of some controversy. Christiano, Eichenbaum and Vigfusson (2003) provide an extensive discussion on the treatment of per capita hours in the VAR. In this paper, we stationarize the hours measures by removing a linear trend from the log series. As in Collard and Dellas (2007), this approach avoids the criticism of Christiano et al. (2003), that hours should not be di↵erenced. Using hours in levels or first-di↵erences produces confidence intervals for hours and other variables that diverge to infinity as the horizon increases.

# **7 Empirical Results from the VAR**

In this section we discuss our results from the estimated VAR. With quarterly data, four is the common choice for the number of lags which adequately captures the medium-run dynamics in the data.<sup>27</sup> This corresponds to one lag at annual frequencies. The one year lag

> 26Aggregate real output in the consumption-good sector is defined as aggregate nominal output net of R&D investment divided by the implicit GDP deflator from the BEA-NSF satellite account.

> 27For instance, see Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (2005), Altig, Christiano, Eichenbaum and Linde
*_Labor Market Outcomes_**

Theoretically, the direction of the effects of the FSSP on working behaviors of the beneficiaries in the longer-term is unclear. While the program introduces incentives for girls to spend more time in school and work less, if girls are an important source of labor for the household, they may give up leisure time rather than working less. Moreover, girls are expected to obtain better jobs and higher wages as they progress through school and accumulate more education. At the

> 26 Evidence of similar impacts has been also found for Bolsa Escola and PRAF II, two CCT programs in Brazil and Honduras (de Janvry and others 2006; Glewee and Olinto 2004).

> 27 2007-08, the year of the follow-up survey, may be too early to capture the impacts on this younger cohort (that is, age 15-16) of the program on high school (that is, grade 10) completion, as the majority of girls enrolled in grade 10 at the time of the follow-up survey are aged 15-16

> 28 The transition from middle to high school is a critical juncture in schooling attainment in Punjab as well as the rest of Pakistan, particularly in poor rural communities. In fact, rates of transition from middle to high school were low at baseline. The distribution of school attainment (measured as the number of years of schooling) for adolescents and adults exhibits a significant drop between grades 8 and 9 in both stipend and non-stipend districts.

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extending digital payments, and DFS more broadly, to more people thus achieving deeper financial inclusion.

While we have tried to glean as much as we can from the new global data sources used in this paper and offered first evidence for a large set of countries on the importance of hard-toquantify factors such as user capabilities, there is much more to learn. Other data sources, particularly from households and firms, can shed light on whether and how governments’ digital cash transfers during the pandemic have deepened financial inclusion and changed financial behaviors. Although researchers have speculated that digital payments can be a gateway to fuller financial participation (see, e.g., Demirguc-Kunt et al., 2022), rigorous evidence on this is lacking, aside from RCTs that indicate that recipients learn how to take fuller advantage of digital payments over time (see, e.g., Breza, Kanz, and Klapper, 2020). An important area for future research concerns understanding the contexts in which basic DFS improve the lives of population segments that have been under-served by formal financial services providers and how DFS can lead to deeper financial inclusion.

It will also be important to update the data sources relied on here, particularly the Findex data summarizing usage of financial services, but also those summarizing bank regulation and supervision and regulation of digital economic activities. Information on the use of digital financial services by firms may also be important to understand firm financial constraints. Further, it would be beneficial to expand surveys of bank regulation and supervision to encompass their DFS activities. Moreover, there is no comprehensive global data on regulation and supervision of nonbank providers of DFS, nor is there systematic data on the activities and performance of fintech firms throughout the world. Improvements in these types of data will be crucial for understanding the regulatory and economic contexts in which DFS can flourish, while safeguarding the interests 25
Policy Research Working Paper 6434

# **Abstract**

Despite trade liberalization efforts made by Eurasian countries, the export structure of the region shows significant levels of concentration across export destinations. To shed light on this observation, this research analyzes trade policy barriers in Eurasia, East Asia and the Pacific, and the European Union. Using the most recent data from sources including the World Trade Organization, the United Nations, and the World Bank—including the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Indices, the Services Trade Restrictions Database, and the Temporary Trade Barriers Database—the role of tariffs, non-tariff measures, temporary trade barriers, trade agreements, and trade barriers in services are explored to explain the lack of diversification by destination. Several conclusions can be drawn from the analysis.

First, China, Korea, and Japan, as well as the European Union, impose high levels of protection on products of animal origin, which may explain the lack of Eurasian export diversification toward the East Asia and the Pacific and the European Union regions. It also highlights the potential benefits of diversifying the structure of production in Eurasia toward more sophisticated and technologically intensive goods. Second, the East Asia and the Pacific region (especially China) appears to be more protectionist than the European Union, suggesting a greater challenge for Eurasian countries in diversifying exports to the destination. And third, few or no regional trade agreements exist between Eurasian countries and countries in the European Union or East Asia and the Pacific.

This paper is a product of the International Trade Department,, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank. org. The author may be contacted at acusolito@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An
), and then determines important trade remedies. The regressions are based on a cross-section pooled dataset for the years 2007 and 2008. A three-stage regression process is used here to understand the impact of trade facilitation, comprising several of the logistics and trade facilitation indicators and shows that this captures essentially all the explanatory power of the indicators used separately.<sup>48</sup> Definition of variables and corresponding data sources appear in Appendix 6, and the list of Bangladesh‘s trade partners in Appendix 7. The initial augmented gravity results are worth noting (Table 11):

- Specification 1 contains the initial set of models fitted before any of the trade facilitation or logistics indicators or additional variables are included. It contains regressions of bilateral trade on GDP in the exporting and importing countries. The results are qualitatively consistent with those of earlier studies, particularly de Groot _et al._ (2004). What is most interesting is that the tariff and the dummy variables for regional transit in specification 1 are statistically significant at a 1 percent level. Furthermore, trade liberalization and regional transit would lead to increased exports of Bangladesh, other things remaining equal.

> 46 De and Ghosh (2008); De and Bhattacharyay (2007a, 2007b).

> 47 Countries that have removed common barriers to trade have raised per-capita income by increasing trade. The removal of common borders between Germany and the Czech Republic and between the United States and Mexico are seen as key factors in the incomes per capita rising in the smaller countries-–-by 26 percent in the Czech Republic and 27 percent in Mexico (Redding and Venables, 2004).

> 48 The following diagnostics are carried out: (i) linearity assumption between response variable and predictors is checked; (ii) statutory hypothesis tests are carried out on the parameter estimates; (iii) Ramsey test is done to check model specification; (iv) normality of residuals is tracked through Kernel density plot; (v) all estimates are checked for heteroscedasticity through Cameron
how visits to places are changing over time in each geographic region. Google mobility data is measured against a baseline established by Google

> 5 https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/NOAA_VIIRS_DNB_MONTHLY_V1_VCMSLCFG

> 6 “Sentinel-5P NRTI NO2 : Near Real-Time Nitrogen Dioxide”, Google Earth Engine. <u>https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/COPERNICUS_S5P_NRTI_L3_NO2</u>

> 7 https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/LANDSAT_LC08_C01_T1_8DAY_EVI

a where G t t NNt at <u>,ww,tt,tt</u> represents the share of all search volume in a particular week w (in month m for region r) for that term, and ,tt,tt<sup>represents the subnatiuonal google search index for a term in month m and subnational region r.</sup> Max is the maximum, across regions and weeks, in country c. NN aa,ww,tt,tt 9
many private companies will be forthcoming with resources. A 2004 perception survey of 50 private companies active or interest in East Asia infrastructure investment shows that private sector sentiment towards infrastructure investment is contingent on policy improvements and reduced risks (ADB, WB and JBIC 2005).

Overall, Thailand’s infrastructure provision is satisfactory and infrastructure spending compares favorably with other countries in the region. The government is right in attempting to develop and implement a strategic view on infrastructure priorities. The administration has made progress in addressing new infrastructure needs, although the issues of funding and public-private partnerships are still to be solved. As emphasized in the next section, more needs to be done to extend infrastructure to outlaying regions.

> 13 The Thai Supreme Court decided to nationalize the second stage expressway after a toll collection dispute between the Japanese concessionaire and the Expressway Authority of Thailand.

36
(1997, 2005) -this is the average of returns to education in Psacharopoulos and Patrinos (2004). The results did not change when we adjusted the returns to education to account for differences in educational quality across countries. In this case,  ( _N_ )  _reQN_ , where _Q_ is a country-specific educational quality index, as in Hanushek and Kimko (2000).<sup>9</sup> We also used two alternative data sources for years of schooling, _s_ , as an indicator of the level of educational attainment in the labor force: Barro and Lee (2001) and Cohen and Soto (2007).<sup>10</sup> In this paper we present the results for the human capital indicator based on Barro and Lee's years of schooling. This reduces our sample to 112 countries and 309 observations. When the human capital indicator was based in Cohen and Soto's _N_ , the estimates were robust, if a bit less precise, but the sample size further dropped, by 20 percent (from 112 to 88 countries, or from 309 to 253 observations).

Finally, we augment our indicator of human capital to account for the health of the population and of the working force; _Ah_ can be expressed as _Ah_  _e_  _ASR ASR_ as in Caselli (2005), where _ASR_ is the adult survival rate. Shastry and Weil (2003) argue that differences in health status proxied by adult mortality rates map into substantial differences in energy and capacity for effort. Caselli (2005) finds that correcting the standard human capital measures to account for health, proxied, as in our case, by adult survival rates ( _ASR_ ), increases the percentage of cross-country income variance attributed to physical and human capital by almost one third. In Weil (2007) accounting for health differences reduces the variance of log GDP per worker by 9.9 percent.

> 9 Hanushek and Kimko (2000) combine the results of cognitive achievement tests in mathematics and
More specifically, our main goals are to analyze the determinants of the location choices of Venezuelan migrants within Ecuador and how they might affect the labor markets of the host regions. Crucially, we employ novel data based on mobile phone records to measure the geographical distribution of Venezuelan migrants across Ecuador’s regions ( _cantons_ ), which we merge with Ecuador’s household labor force survey ( _ENEMDU_ ).

Methodologically, we create a wide range of regional labor market indicators, including participation and employment rates, along with measures of employment quality, informality and earnings. We also classify these regions ( _cantons_ ) according to the den-

> 1In the years prior to 2017, about 2.4 million people fled South Sudan. Likewise, it is estimated that 6.3 million people were displaced from the Syrian Arab Republic (Syria) between 2011 and 2017.

> 2For instance, Hausmann et al. (2018) used _Twitter_ data to estimate that close to 3 million Venezuelans left the country in year 2017.

2
employment outside the home, the husband can cease fulfilling his marital obligation to provide for his wife (Biro 1994). This could leave the wife destitute if she has no other means to support herself. Sudanese women may, and in many if not most cases do, receive inheritance from their fathers. That said, a study by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) confirms that, in practice, daughters generally receive half as much as sons (UNDP 2018). Public perception seems to be in favor of gender-differentiated inheritance rights. According to the Arab Barometer (2018), the vast majority of respondents, 87 percent, do not believe that women should have the right to the same share of inheritance as men.<sup>12</sup> However, when it comes to divorce, a considerably larger share of women (54 percent) than men (37 percent) believe that women should have the same right to decide to divorce as men (Arab Barometer 2018).

The 1991 MPSL was significant—and remains significant—not just for the abovementioned reasons but because it transferred authority over family matters from Islamic religious leaders to the country’s political leaders **.** Nada Mustafa Ali, a leading academic authority on Sudan, notes how, in the wake of the passage of the 1991 MPSL, the country’s political leaders took advantage of the opportunity to interpret the 1991 MPSL in a way that allowed them to easily dismiss women from their professional positions. “In accordance with this legal discourse, the early days of the regime saw systematic dismissal of women from public service. This was not government policy, but was concealed during mass purges, or representing it as part of the country’s economic measures in the attorney general’s office, out of 60 employees dismissed almost 60 percent were women, a number of whom had been in senior positions for several years. The justification put forward for that act was that ‘married women were often absent from work
contrary to the investor demand for predictability and most often the sovereign ends up borrowing at much higher costs.

# **Conclusion**

Policymakers in small states are fully cognizant of the risks posed by poor debt management and the costs that high public debt burdens place on the state’s resources. At the Small States Forum held in Antigua and Barbuda in 2007 participating states committed to fiscal targets aimed at reducing public debt ratios and drew up an action plan to improve debt management capacity. It prioritized:

- Improving the collection and reporting of government financial statistics;

- Developing more liquid domestic debt markets and broadening the investor base;

- Implementing institutional arrangement to support active debt management and coordination with fiscal and monetary policy.

Like action plans, DeMPA exercises are not a “one-off exercise”, or an end in itself. They mark the start of the reform process and can only point the way and provide a roadmap to: (a) guide national authorities in the formulation of more robust debt management practices; (b) highlight areas where policy changes are required; and (c) monitor performance over time against internationally recognized benchmarks. As indicated they are also a rich source of information on how different countries have approached the challenge of instituting sound debt management policies and practices from which others may draw.

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relatively large increases in depth for countries with explicit schemes should, perhaps, be attributed to a host of other factors. Section III offers a more formal attempt to disentangle the relationship between the circumstances surrounding deposit insurance decisions and their eventual impact on financial depth.

Table **2: Characteristics of Countries with Explicit and Implicit Deposit Insurance Programs**

|**Variable**|Exp|licitProgra s||I|**plicit Progra**s||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
||Mean|St Dev|Obs|Mean|St Dev|Obs|
|PerCap Inc*|7268|4406|131|4042|4377|45|
|Inflation|14.3%|16.8%|33|19.0%|20.4%|31|
|3yr Deficits|3.0%|3.4%|32|3.9%|4.6%|39|
|M2 Instabil*|6.9%|6.3%|35|15.3%|9.5%|23|
|Law Index*|3.92|1.79|43|2.74|1.31|43|
|Bank Crisis|25.8%||31|14.3%||56|

Notes: Per capita income measured in 1985 $US. For explicit countries, income and inflation figures are for the year of the program's adoption, deficits and M2 stability are for the three years prior to adoption, and bank crises are for the five years prior to adoption. For implicit countries. income, inflation, deficit, and M2 stability are averaged over all years for which data were available. Bank crisis data are for the five years leading up to the last decision to retain an implicit program (i.e.
Policy Research Working Paper 6156

# **Abstract**

Was economic growth in East Asia jobless? This paper addresses this question using data from eight East Asian countries during the period between 1997 and 2011 to estimate the Okun’s Law Coefficient, which captures the relationship between growth and employment. The analysis suggests that growth was not jobless. However, there is considerable variation across countries. Generally, the effect of growth on employment tends to magnify under more flexible hiring and firing rules. Yet even where labor markets are more tightly regulated, economic growth affects employment, not necessarily in the aggregate but in its composition. There is evidence that agricultural employment moves counter-cyclically, as opposed to non-agricultural employment. The effect is particularly pronounced in periods of economic crisis, suggesting that agriculture may serve as a shock-absorber for workers laid off in the industrial sector. Isolating nonagricultural employment reveals a stronger relationship between growth and job creation.

This paper is a product of the Economic Policy Sector, East Asia and the Pacific Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at mhanusch@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team