rafmacalaba/data-use-mentions-extended huggingface dataset:
Policy Research Working Paper 10697

# **Abstract**

This paper offers an updated and comprehensive review of recent studies on the impact of climate change, particularly global warming, on poverty and inequality, paying special attention to data sources as well as empirical methods. While studies consistently find negative impacts of higher temperature on poverty across different geographical regions, with higher vulnerability especially in poorer Sub-Saharan Africa, there is inconclusive evidence on climate change impacts on inequality. Further analysis of a recently constructed global database at the subnational unit level derived from official national household income and consumption surveys shows that temperature change has larger impacts in the short term and more impacts on chronic poverty than transient poverty. The results are robust to different model specifications and measures of chronic poverty and are more pronounced for poorer countries. The findings offer relevant inputs into current efforts to fight climate change.

This paper is a product of the Development Data Group, Development Economics and the Sustainable Development Practice Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http:// www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at hdang@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
of 10 percent per year, the sustainable debt would rise from 25 percent to 40 percent of GDP, as velocity decreases from 20 to 5 per year.

Given velocity, the columns in Table 2 show a significant reaction of the equilibrium of debt to changes in real interest rates. For example, if interest rates are reduced by 5 percentage points (from 15 to 10 percent) and velocity is 10, the sustainable debt would consequently increase 10 percentage points of GDP (from .20 to .30). For the same interest rate change (same percentage points change) the increment in sustainable debt is larger, the lower the income velocity of money.

To make the calculation of sustainable debt, it is necessary to consider "reasonable" values of parameters. A one or two year "blip" makes no sense when applying these values to the equations. Consider, for example, the case of Chile in 1995, with an income velocity of base money of 3.3, a primary surplus close to 2 percent of GDP, an inflation of about 8 percent, and an interest rate of 10 percent per year. Its sustainable debt should have been approximately 453 percent of GDP. The same would apply to other countries with atypical figures, for example the Mexican 1995 economic statistics.

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national highways, for a total improvement of 6,647 km. About 442 km length of highway is common between GQ and NS-EW.

The GQ network, totaling a length of 5,846 km, connects the four major cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata. Figure 1 provides a map of the GQ network. Beyond the four major cities that the GQ network connects, the highway touches many smaller cities like Dhanbad in Bihar, Chittaurgarh in Rajasthan, and Guntur in Andhra Pradesh. The GQ upgrades began in 2001, with a target completion date

> 4 Source: National Highway Authority of India website: <u>http://www.nhai.org/. The Committee on Infrastructure</u> continues to project that the growth in demand for road transport in India will be 1.5-2 times faster than that for other modes. Available at: <u>http://www.infrastructure.gov.in. By comparison, highways constitute 5% of the road</u> network in Brazil, Japan, and the United States and 13% in Korea and the United Kingdom (World Road Statistics 2009).

> 5 The GQ program in particular sought to upgrade highways to international standards of four- or six-laned, dualcarriageway highways with grade separators and access roads. In 2002, this group was only 4% of India’s highways, and the GQ work raised this share to 12% by the end of 2006.

7
average days per year that an individual from a rural area spends working as a migrant increased during the period from 2003 to 2013. Interestingly, rural women, once engaging in rural-to-urban migration, spend more days working as migrants than men. The gender difference seems to exist at all ages before 2010 (Figure 6) but has shown signs of closing in more recent years. One explanation may be that men are more likely to work on construction and infrastructure projects, which tend to have greater seasonality in north China, and lead to fewer days employed over the year.

Fourth, the distributions of migrant occupation types and the industries of employment have undergone little change in the more recent period from 2009 to 2013, even though both migration rates and the migrant labor supply have increased over this period. As seen in Figures 7 and 8, about 10% of

> 11 This is not simply a panel data effect driven by the relatively long RCRE panel. From the CFPS panel, which is of relatively short duration, the 2018 CFPS data suggest the median ages of migrant men and women are 38 and 35, respectively.

> 12 The RCRE data suggest that the migrant population has also become more educated. The average years of schooling has increased from 7.68 to 8.42 for women and from 7.82 to 8.48 for men during the 2003 to 2013 period. However, according to the 2018 CFPS data, the average years of schooling in the migrant population are 7.38 for women and 7.97 for men.

> 13 Because the migrant share is low for the old age cohort, we focus on people ages 16-60 when examining migrant labor supply.

12
+ 19 23<br>TurkmenistanAlgeria 111+O+0 13 16<br>Guyana 7 + 20<br>Mongoliahaiflan 6 1%+ @@ 13 19<br>Tunisia 8 Ot 16<br>Armenia 6 + 12<br>. Montenegro SQ-o+<br>Bosnia and Hegegov' na 16 10<br>Kazakhstanu hota 66 O +9+ 10 13<br>Jordan 2 + 14<br>State of BarbadosPalestine 3 6 +7+ 8<br>Dominican Republic 4 nts 12 Other —<br>Republic of Meldovaerbia 3 4 0++ 11 14 ®© PhilippinesRegional comparator<br>Pagagquay 1 + 12<br>_Belarus4 le} 23 ++o 6 10<br>Saint Lucia 0 + 5<br>0 20 40 60<br>Stunting prevalence (% under-5)<br><!-- End of picture text -->

Source: UNICEF, WHO, The World Bank Group: Joint child malnutrition estimates. Data by income quintile for the Philippines are from the 2015 National Nutrition Survey. Data for Vietnam and Thailand are from World Bank country programs. Countries are sorted by the overall national stunting prevalance. Data correspond to the year with the most recently available stunting estimates by wealth quintile for each country (the mean year for all estimates shown is 2013), the oldest estimate is from 2005 (Belarus) and the most recent estimates are from 2016.
Such biases have led to issues like increased surveillance of marginalized groups for immigration decisions (Eubanks, 2018) and manipulation of public comments on net neutrality rules (Panditharatne, Weiner, and Kriner, 2023). Studies have shown similar rates of bias detection in AI-generated content compared to human responses, risking neglect of genuine needs (Kreps and Kriner, 2023).</mark>

# 2.4. **_Detection and mitigation of gender bias_**

Detecting biases in AI requires systematic objective methods. Biases are typically identified by comparing AI outcomes with human-coded benchmark datasets. For instance, Booth et al. (2021) use psychometrics to assess gender bias in video recruitment. Census data is often used to evaluate income prediction biases (Feldman and Peake, 2021). More advanced methods include Winograd schemas, which involve ambiguous sentence pairs to test AI's language comprehension and contextual understanding, a method typically used in sentiment analysis (Sarraf et al., 2021). Beyond those methods, fairness metrics are also used for detecting AI bias. Fairness through unawareness ensures models ignore attributes like gender in predictions, while counterfactual fairness checks if altering someone’s gender affects outcomes. Equal opportunity fairness compares true positive rates across groups for equity, and average odds fairness assesses equal rates of true and false positives. Disparate impact and statistical parity fairness focus on 5
**Information campaign** Households were informed of the discounts the month before they took effect in two ways: (1) through a note left on the “Comments” section of the bill, which was handed to each customer upon their monthly in-person payment at a central location in the village, shortly followed by (2) a letter sent by the water utility to each customer’s home.<sup>10</sup> To make the discounts particularly salient just before they were to go into effect, any rebate as a result of a discount was applied retroactively to the prior month’s bill and consumers were informed that henceforth this would be the prevailing rate.

Price salience was confirmed by households inasmuch as 97 percent of them responded within rounding error of the actual price of VND5,300 when asked in the quarterly monitoring survey of December 2015 (at the end of the price linearization phase) what price per cubic meter they expected to be charged the following month. Evidently, households were not only well aware of the price of piped water but of the existence of the on-going linearization scheme as well. Broad awareness of the price flattening is suggested by the fact that even among the 16 percent of households who consumed 10 m<sup>3</sup> or more in December 2015, and who would therefore have paid a higher marginal price absent the linearization scheme, 97 percent still accurately reported within rounding error of the exact price. During this initial phase of the experiment, households were also informed of the imminent subsidy program, although its timing and magnitude were not revealed until the last minute.

# **2.2 Preliminary analysis**

Most of the experimental sample households (70 percent) were connected to piped water in the initial roll-out of An Thinh’s network from September 2012 to February 2013, with the remainder connecting throughout the rest of 2013 (10 percent), 2014 (9 percent), and 2015 (11 percent). Prior to the
# **4 The data, stylized facts and results from empirical valueadded models**

The data used in this study was collected for a randomized controlled field experiment with the objective to establish the causal effects of Indonesia’s teacher certification program, which included a doubling of a teacher’s base pay (De Ree, Muralidharan, Pradhan, and Rogers 2015). 360 schools were sampled using a two-step sampling strategy. First, 20 districts were selected from 10 broader geographical strata, and second, within each district, 12 primary and 6 junior secondary schools were selected.<sup>17</sup> The data on the 240 primary schools are used in this paper. Within these 240 schools, all class teachers ( _N ≈_ 1700) were tested and interviewed.<sup>18</sup> In addition, all students ( _N ≈_ 45 _,_ 000) in the 240 sample schools were tested as well. The multiple choice tests for teachers and students consisted of a mathematics, a science and an Indonesian language component.<sup>19</sup> At the back of the answering sheets, students also filled out a brief questionnaire on wealth indicators and on parent education.<sup>20</sup> Further selections on the data were made prior to the analysis. First, the data from one of the districts ( _Maluku Tenggara Barat_ ) were dropped from the analysis, because baseline data was collected about 6 months later as for the rest of the sample. Second, students who repeated class at least once are not used in the analysis. Third, because the statistical model requires three periods of measurement on test score data, we only rely on the grade levels which we can track for three consecutive years, i.e. 2 _→_ 3 _→_ 4, 3 _→_ 4 _→_ 5 and 4 _→_ 5 _→_ 6. Fourth, we only use classrooms for which we can
Policy Research Working Paper 9063

# **Abstract**

Facing a youth bulge—a large influx of a young labor force—the Pakistani economy needs to create more jobs by taking advantage of this relatively well-educated young labor force. Yet, the educated young labor force suffers a higher unemployment rate, and there is a concern that the current education and training system in the country does not respond to skill demands in the private sector. This paper provides new descriptives about labor markets, particularly skill demand and supply, by using online job portal data. The paper finds that although there is an excess supply of highly educated workers, certain industries, such as information and communications technology, lack workers who have specialized skills and experience. The analysis also finds that the exact match of qualifications and skills is important for employers. Job applicants who are underqualified or overqualified for job posts are less likely to be shortlisted than those whose qualifications exactly match job requirements.

This paper is a product of the Education Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at snomura@worldbank.org.

_The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent._ Produced by the Research Support Team
- Feng, S., Gr ́epin, K. A., and Chunara, R. (2018). Tracking health seeking behavior during an ebola outbreak via mobile phones and sms. _NPJ digital medicine_ , 1(1):1–8.

- for Health Initiative: NCD Mobile Phone Survey, B. P. D. (2020a). Executive summary: Zambia ncd mobile phone survey 2017. Technical report, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

- for Health Initiative: NCD Mobile Phone Survey, B. P. D. (2020b). Ncd mobile phone survey in the philippines. Technical report, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

- Friedman, J., Beegle, K., De Weerdt, J., and Gibson, J. (2017). Decomposing response error in food consumption measurement: Implications for survey design from a randomized survey experiment in tanzania. _Food Policy_ , 72:94–111.

- Garlick, R., Orkin, K., and Quinn, S. (2020). Call me maybe: Experimental evidence on frequency and medium effects in microenterprise surveys. _The World Bank Economic Review_ , 34(2):418–443.

- Gibson, D. G., Wosu, A. C., Pariyo, G. W., Ahmed, S., Ali, J., Labrique, A. B., Khan, I. A., Rutebemberwa, E., Flora, M. S., and Hyder, A. A. (2019). Effect of airtime incentives on response and cooperation rates in noncommunicable disease interactive voice response surveys: randomised controlled trials in bangladesh and uganda. _BMJ global health_ , 4(5):e001604.

- Gibson, J., Beegle, K., De Weerdt, J., and Friedman, J. (2015). What does variation in survey design reveal about the nature of measurement errors in household consumption? _Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics_ , 77(3
for a woman to be<br>fulfilled, it is necessary that she has children, and 0 if<br>theythink that it is not necessary.|D019|
|_Both spouses should_<br>_contribute to household_<br>_income_<br>Source: DHS and WVS|1 if a woman or man agrees or strongly agrees that<br>both spouses/partners should contribute to<br>household income, and 0 if they disagree or strongly<br>disagree.|D058a|

53
This note is organized as follows. Section II describes the data used in the note, Section III summarizes aggregate impacts of the financial crisis, Section IV describes the methodology used to measure distributional impacts of the crisis, Section V presents results, and Section VI concludes.

# **II. Data**

The main data source for this effort was the Latvian EU-SILC 2006 database, which was the most recent survey available in 2009 when the simulations were conducted. The survey is annual with a four-year rotational panel.<sup>4</sup> In 2006, the fieldwork was carried out March through November during which time 4,315 households (9,391 individuals aged 16 and over) were interviewed. Sampled households also included 1,594 children under 16 years of age. The reference population comprises private households with members residing in the national territory. The survey includes modules of income, labor market activity, demographics, education, health, housing, social programs, access to some durable consumption goods, and subjective welfare.

# **III. Aggregate Impact of the Financial Crisis**

Latvia’s GDP contracted by 18 percent in 2009 relative to its GDP in 2008.<sup>5</sup> The Ministry of Economics forecast the sectoral breakdown of the GDP contraction (Figure 1). The three hardest hit sectors were trade hotels and restaurants (projected to contract by 24 percent); construction (projected to contract by 19.5 percent); and manufacturing (projected to contract by 18.8 percent). The forecasts suggested that the sectors likely to be least affected were transport, expected to decline by 4.2 percent, and communication and the primary sectors, expected to decline by 7.2 percent.

> 4  The Latvian EU-SILC survey uses a stratified two-stage sampling design. In the first stage, systematic sampling of the primary sampling units was selected. In the second stage, simple random sampling was used to select secondary sampling units. The survey was stratified
|76<br>(79)|79<br>(79)|74<br>(78)|
|Were any deposits not explicitly covered by the deposit insurance scheme at the time of<br>failure compensated the last time a bank failed (excluding funds later paid out in liquidation<br>procedures)?|24<br>(36)|21<br>(17)|26<br>(45)|
|**D. Some More Details ...**|**Median**|**Median**|**Median**|
|What is the basic deposit insurance limit per category of insured deposits as of end of<br>2010? (2010 Thousands USD)|66|127|25|
|What percentage of the total deposits of participating commercial banks was actually<br>covered by the scheme as of end of<br>2008? (%)<br>2009? (%)<br>2010?(%)|35<br>37<br>37|52<br>53<br>54|30<br>30<br>31|
|From the time of the event's trigger, within how many days is the deposit insurance scheme<br>legally obligated to fully reimburse insured depositors?|30|20|30|

Source: Calculations based on the 2011–12 Bank Regulation and Supervision Survey, which reflects values as of 2010. Values in parentheses refer to the 2007 Bank Regulation and Supervision Survey, which captures data as of 2005. ADV: advanced economies, EMDEs: emerging and developing economies (Table 1 provides the complete list of countries).

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required of MFIs in different non-regulated and regulated categories -- whether by donors, government regulators, stakeholders or independent credit rating agencies -- is a more difficult issue. The difficulty arises from the need to recognize differences in country settings and accepted social and commercial practices and conventions, but also because of the variety of microfinance institutions and their client base. The global experience in capital markets development has demonstrated the ability of independent, private sector-organized credit rating agencies to establish credible market-based performance standards, and may provide insights into how standards for microfinance institutions might be developed.

96. The Microfinance Program of the Economics Institute in Boulder, Colorado and CGAP are involved in a project to develop a database on the financial performance of MFIIs, to help MFI managers improve their understanding of the performance of their own individual institultoens through comparison with data from similar MFIs in their peer group. This is similar to the use by managers of commercial banks and other businesses of peer group analysis as a valuable management tool. Confidential reports to participating MFIs on their individual financial performance in the conte,;t of an appropriate peer group are the main product of the project. The secondary output is a semi-annual _MicroBanking Bulletin_ which provides a broader audience with statistical financial data on participating MiIFls as a whole as well as on peer groups of such MFIs.

97. The World Bank can provide assistance through staff training and dissemination by seminars, workshops and publications, to increase the awareness and use of best practice methodologies in microfinance operations. Building strong institutional management and financial performance should be the focus of technical assistance and a prerequisite for obtaining access to World Bank loans. As a specific example, the World Bank has elaborated policies relevant for len.dig to financial intermediaries, 33
7 The value of CPI still remains below the average for EU-15 and the gap has slightly increased. The fact the average for CEEC-8 countries has also fallen behind does not change an overall assessment of the magnitude of the challenge faced by Bulgaria in improving regulatory environment to minimize the potential for rent seeking.

The same conclusions boiling down to “huge improvement but a challenge ahead” can be drawn from the analysis based on diagnostic tools developed by the World Bank. Although better governance implies lower corruption, the two are different as the former also includes the supply of public goods and services and their quality. Tools designed to assess the quality of governance are much more elaborate than Transparency International’s rankings covering separately six dimensions of governance and drawing on a much larger pool of expert assessments. Table 3 reports values of three rather than all six governance indicators. Dimensions of governance included are political stability, government effectiveness and regulatory quality.<sup>3</sup> A single aggregate index of governance is a simple average of the values of these three governance indicators. Their values range between –2.5 (the worst case) and +2.5 (the best case).

In 1996-98 Bulgaria together with Romania were scored well below CEEC-8 economies and below the average for SEE-4 countries on political stability and government effectiveness dimensions. The regulatory quality was one of the highest among SEE economies in 1998 but offset by low government effectiveness. In terms of aggregate index, Bulgaria was on a par with Romania in 1998, well above SEE-4 economies rather dramatically below Poland the overall worst performer among CEEC-8 countries.

**Table 3:** _Selected indicators of the quality of governance in 1998-2002_

||**Polit**|**ical Stab**|**ility**|**Governm**|**ent Effec**|**tiveness**|**Regu**|**latory Qu**|**ality**|**Aggre