รัฐบาลไทย-ข่าวทำเนียบรัฐบาล-Cabinet acknowledges Monetary Policy Report for Q1/2023
วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 15 มิถุนายน 2566
15/06/2566
Cabinet acknowledges Monetary Policy Report for Q1/2023
Cabinet acknowledges Monetary Policy Report for Q1/2023
June 13, 2023, Deputy Secretary-General to the Prime Minister and Acting Government Spokesperson Anucha Burapachaisri disclosed that the cabinet acknowledged report of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Thai economic performances for the 1st quarter of 2023.
According to the report, Thailand’s trading partners are expected to grow 2.5% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024 thanks to growth momentum in the services sector of US and euro area economies and China’s strong economic gains since COVID containment measures have been lifted. However, the global economic outlook faces greater uncertainties due to persistently high global inflation, and tighter financial conditions following banking stresses in advanced economies, which would have implications for monetary policy directions and the global economy going forward.
On the other hand, Thai economy is expected to continue expanding, growing 3.6% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024. Growth would be driven by (1) a strong recovery in tourism as it is expected that foreign tourist arrivals would reach 28.0 and 35.0 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively; (2) a continued recovery in private consumption, which is expected to grow by 4%, especially for those in the services sectors related to tourism; and 3) rebound of merchandise export in the latter part of the year as global demand grows. Value of merchandise exports is projected to increase by 4.3%YoY. Headline inflation projection for 2023 is revised down slightly from the previous assessment at 2.9% and would return to the target range in Q2/2023, while headline inflation projection for 2024 is revised up slightly at 2.4%.
Thailand’s overall financial conditions remain accommodative. Financial conditions have tightened somewhat but remain supportive of the ongoing economic recovery. Commercial banks’ interest rates and short-term bond yields increased from the previous quarter in line with the higher policy rate. In Q1/2023, the baht averaged 33.93 per U.S. dollar, appreciating by 7.2% from the average value in the previous quarter. The baht’s appreciation during the earlier parts of the quarter was initially due to China’s reopening announcement and expectations about the recovery in Thai tourism.
According to the report, financial stability remains sound overall but banking stresses in advanced economies and the recovery of the vulnerable groups must be monitored. The MPC also forecasted that Thai economy would continue to expand mainly driven by tourism and private consumption, and might post stronger growth than expected. Headline inflation would return to the target range in Q2/2023 but the outlook is still subject to upside risks stemming from higher cost-passthrough and rising demand-pull inflationary pressure from the ongoing economic recovery. The MPC also judged that policy rate should be normalized in a gradual and measured manner to a level that is consistent with sustainable growth in the long term, and at its meetings on January 25 and March 29, 2023, voted unanimously to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point from 1.25% to 1.50% and from 1.50% to 1.75%, respectively.