pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Learning Data-Driven Uncertainty Set Partitions for Robust and Adaptive Energy Forecasting with Missing Data
Authors: Akylas Stratigakos, Panagiotis Andrianesis
Date: 2025-03-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Imputation

Short-term forecasting models typically assume the availability of input data (features) when they are deployed and in use. However, equipment failures, disruptions, cyberattacks, may lead to missing features when such models are used operationally, which could negatively affect forecast accuracy, and result in suboptimal operational decisions. In this paper, we use adaptive robust optimization and adversarial machine learning to develop forecasting models that seamlessly handle missing data operationally. We propose linear- and neural network-based forecasting models with parameters that adapt to available features, combining linear adaptation with a novel algorithm for learning data-driven uncertainty set partitions. The proposed adaptive models do not rely on identifying historical missing data patterns and are suitable for real-time operations under stringent time constraints. Extensive numerical experiments on short-term wind power forecasting considering horizons from 15 minutes to 4 hours ahead illustrate that our proposed adaptive models are on par with imputation when data are missing for very short periods (e.g., when only the latest measurement is missing) whereas they significantly outperform imputation when data are missing for longer periods. We further provide insights by showcasing how linear adaptation and data-driven partitions (even with a few subsets) approach the performance of the optimal, yet impractical, method of retraining for every possible realization of missing data.
Continual learning via probabilistic exchangeable sequence modelling
Authors: Hanwen Xing, Christopher Yau
Date: 2025-03-26 00:00:00
Tasks: class-incremental learning, Class Incremental Learning, Continual Learning, Decision Making, Incremental Learning, Uncertainty Quantification

Continual learning (CL) refers to the ability to continuously learn and accumulate new knowledge while retaining useful information from past experiences. Although numerous CL methods have been proposed in recent years, it is not straightforward to deploy them directly to real-world decision-making problems due to their computational cost and lack of uncertainty quantification. To address these issues, we propose CL-BRUNO, a probabilistic, Neural Process-based CL model that performs scalable and tractable Bayesian update and prediction. Our proposed approach uses deep-generative models to create a unified probabilistic framework capable of handling different types of CL problems such as task- and class-incremental learning, allowing users to integrate information across different CL scenarios using a single model. Our approach is able to prevent catastrophic forgetting through distributional and functional regularisation without the need of retaining any previously seen samples, making it appealing to applications where data privacy or storage capacity is of concern. Experiments show that CL-BRUNO outperforms existing methods on both natural image and biomedical data sets, confirming its effectiveness in real-world applications.
Revisit Time Series Classification Benchmark: The Impact of Temporal Information for Classification
Authors: Yunrui Zhang, Gustavo Batista, Salil S. Kanhere
Date: 2025-03-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, Time Series, Time Series Classification

Time series classification is usually regarded as a distinct task from tabular data classification due to the importance of temporal information. However, in this paper, by performing permutation tests that disrupt temporal information on the UCR time series classification archive, the most widely used benchmark for time series classification, we identify a significant proportion of datasets where temporal information has little to no impact on classification. Many of these datasets are tabular in nature or rely mainly on tabular features, leading to potentially biased evaluations of time series classifiers focused on temporal information. To address this, we propose UCR Augmented, a benchmark based on the UCR time series classification archive designed to evaluate classifiers' ability to extract and utilize temporal information. Testing classifiers from seven categories on this benchmark revealed notable shifts in performance rankings. Some previously overlooked approaches perform well, while others see their performance decline significantly when temporal information is crucial. UCR Augmented provides a more robust framework for assessing time series classifiers, ensuring fairer evaluations. Our code is available at https://github.com/YunruiZhang/Revisit-Time-Series-Classification-Benchmark.
Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimization with Continuous Context
Authors: Francesco Micheli, Efe C. Balta, Anastasios Tsiamis, John Lygeros
Date: 2025-03-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Optimization, Decision Making

We address the challenge of sequential data-driven decision-making under context distributional uncertainty. This problem arises in numerous real-world scenarios where the learner optimizes black-box objective functions in the presence of uncontrollable contextual variables. We consider the setting where the context distribution is uncertain but known to lie within an ambiguity set defined as a ball in the Wasserstein distance. We propose a novel algorithm for Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimization that can handle continuous context distributions while maintaining computational tractability. Our theoretical analysis combines recent results in self-normalized concentration in Hilbert spaces and finite-sample bounds for distributionally robust optimization to establish sublinear regret bounds that match state-of-the-art results. Through extensive comparisons with existing approaches on both synthetic and real-world problems, we demonstrate the simplicity, effectiveness, and practical applicability of our proposed method.
A Theoretical Framework for Prompt Engineering: Approximating Smooth Functions with Transformer Prompts
Authors: Ryumei Nakada, Wenlong Ji, Tianxi Cai, James Zou, Linjun Zhang
Date: 2025-03-26 00:00:00
Tasks: AI Agent, Prompt Engineering

Prompt engineering has emerged as a powerful technique for guiding large language models (LLMs) toward desired responses, significantly enhancing their performance across diverse tasks. Beyond their role as static predictors, LLMs increasingly function as intelligent agents, capable of reasoning, decision-making, and adapting dynamically to complex environments. However, the theoretical underpinnings of prompt engineering remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce a formal framework demonstrating that transformer models, when provided with carefully designed prompts, can act as a configurable computational system by emulating a ``virtual'' neural network during inference. Specifically, input prompts effectively translate into the corresponding network configuration, enabling LLMs to adjust their internal computations dynamically. Building on this construction, we establish an approximation theory for $\beta$-times differentiable functions, proving that transformers can approximate such functions with arbitrary precision when guided by appropriately structured prompts. Moreover, our framework provides theoretical justification for several empirically successful prompt engineering techniques, including the use of longer, structured prompts, filtering irrelevant information, enhancing prompt token diversity, and leveraging multi-agent interactions. By framing LLMs as adaptable agents rather than static models, our findings underscore their potential for autonomous reasoning and problem-solving, paving the way for more robust and theoretically grounded advancements in prompt engineering and AI agent design.
Diffusion Counterfactuals for Image Regressors
Authors: Trung Duc Ha, Sidney Bender
Date: 2025-03-26 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual, Denoising, regression

Counterfactual explanations have been successfully applied to create human interpretable explanations for various black-box models. They are handy for tasks in the image domain, where the quality of the explanations benefits from recent advances in generative models. Although counterfactual explanations have been widely applied to classification models, their application to regression tasks remains underexplored. We present two methods to create counterfactual explanations for image regression tasks using diffusion-based generative models to address challenges in sparsity and quality: 1) one based on a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model that operates directly in pixel-space and 2) another based on a Diffusion Autoencoder operating in latent space. Both produce realistic, semantic, and smooth counterfactuals on CelebA-HQ and a synthetic data set, providing easily interpretable insights into the decision-making process of the regression model and reveal spurious correlations. We find that for regression counterfactuals, changes in features depend on the region of the predicted value. Large semantic changes are needed for significant changes in predicted values, making it harder to find sparse counterfactuals than with classifiers. Moreover, pixel space counterfactuals are more sparse while latent space counterfactuals are of higher quality and allow bigger semantic changes.
Untangling the Influence of Typology, Data and Model Architecture on Ranking Transfer Languages for Cross-Lingual POS Tagging
Authors: Enora Rice, Ali Marashian, Hannah Haynie, Katharina von der Wense, Alexis Palmer
Date: 2025-03-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Cross-Lingual POS Tagging, Cross-Lingual Transfer, Part-Of-Speech Tagging, POS, POS Tagging, Transfer Learning

Cross-lingual transfer learning is an invaluable tool for overcoming data scarcity, yet selecting a suitable transfer language remains a challenge. The precise roles of linguistic typology, training data, and model architecture in transfer language choice are not fully understood. We take a holistic approach, examining how both dataset-specific and fine-grained typological features influence transfer language selection for part-of-speech tagging, considering two different sources for morphosyntactic features. While previous work examines these dynamics in the context of bilingual biLSTMS, we extend our analysis to a more modern transfer learning pipeline: zero-shot prediction with pretrained multilingual models. We train a series of transfer language ranking systems and examine how different feature inputs influence ranker performance across architectures. Word overlap, type-token ratio, and genealogical distance emerge as top features across all architectures. Our findings reveal that a combination of typological and dataset-dependent features leads to the best rankings, and that good performance can be obtained with either feature group on its own.
Low-resource Machine Translation for Code-switched Kazakh-Russian Language Pair
Authors: Maksim Borisov, Zhanibek Kozhirbayev, Valentin Malykh
Date: 2025-03-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Machine Translation, Translation

Machine translation for low resource language pairs is a challenging task. This task could become extremely difficult once a speaker uses code switching. We propose a method to build a machine translation model for code-switched Kazakh-Russian language pair with no labeled data. Our method is basing on generation of synthetic data. Additionally, we present the first codeswitching Kazakh-Russian parallel corpus and the evaluation results, which include a model achieving 16.48 BLEU almost reaching an existing commercial system and beating it by human evaluation.
Poor Alignment and Steerability of Large Language Models: Evidence from College Admission Essays
Authors: Jinsook Lee, AJ Alvero, Thorsten Joachims, René Kizilcec
Date: 2025-03-25 00:00:00

People are increasingly using technologies equipped with large language models (LLM) to write texts for formal communication, which raises two important questions at the intersection of technology and society: Who do LLMs write like (model alignment); and can LLMs be prompted to change who they write like (model steerability). We investigate these questions in the high-stakes context of undergraduate admissions at a selective university by comparing lexical and sentence variation between essays written by 30,000 applicants to two types of LLM-generated essays: one prompted with only the essay question used by the human applicants; and another with additional demographic information about each applicant. We consistently find that both types of LLM-generated essays are linguistically distinct from human-authored essays, regardless of the specific model and analytical approach. Further, prompting a specific sociodemographic identity is remarkably ineffective in aligning the model with the linguistic patterns observed in human writing from this identity group. This holds along the key dimensions of sex, race, first-generation status, and geographic location. The demographically prompted and unprompted synthetic texts were also more similar to each other than to the human text, meaning that prompting did not alleviate homogenization. These issues of model alignment and steerability in current LLMs raise concerns about the use of LLMs in high-stakes contexts.
Cross-Tokenizer Distillation via Approximate Likelihood Matching
Authors: Benjamin Minixhofer, Ivan Vulić, Edoardo Maria Ponti
Date: 2025-03-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Large Language Model

Distillation has shown remarkable success in transferring knowledge from a Large Language Model (LLM) teacher to a student LLM. However, current distillation methods predominantly require the same tokenizer between the teacher and the student, restricting their applicability to only a small subset of teacher-student pairs. In this work, we develop a cross-tokenizer distillation method to solve this crucial deficiency. Our method is the first to enable cross-tokenizer distillation without a next-token prediction loss as the main objective, instead purely maximizing the student predictions' similarity to the teacher's predictions (known as pure distillation), while also being robust to large mismatches between the teacher and the student tokenizer function and vocabulary. Empirically, our method enables substantially improved performance as tested on two use cases. First, we show that viewing tokenizer transfer as self-distillation enables unprecedently effective transfer across tokenizers. We transfer (subword-level) Llama and Gemma models to byte-level tokenization more effectively than prior methods transfer to a similar subword tokenizer under a comparable training budget. Transferring different base models to the same tokenizer also enables ensembling them (e.g., via averaging their predicted probabilities) which boosts performance. Second, we use our cross-tokenizer distillation method to distil a large maths-specialized LLM into a smaller model, achieving competitive maths problem-solving performance. Overall, our results make substantial strides toward better adaptability and enhanced interaction between different LLMs.
Generative Linguistics, Large Language Models, and the Social Nature of Scientific Success
Authors: Sophie Hao
Date: 2025-03-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Language Modeling, Language Modelling

Chesi's (forthcoming) target paper depicts a generative linguistics in crisis, foreboded by Piantadosi's (2023) declaration that "modern language models refute Chomsky's approach to language." In order to survive, Chesi warns, generativists must hold themselves to higher standards of formal and empirical rigor. This response argues that the crisis described by Chesi and Piantadosi actually has little to do with rigor, but is rather a reflection of generativists' limited social ambitions. Chesi ties the fate of generative linguistics to its intellectual merits, but the current success of language model research is social in nature as much as it is intellectual. In order to thrive, then, generativists must do more than heed Chesi's call for rigor; they must also expand their ambitions by giving outsiders a stake in their future success.
Bigger But Not Better: Small Neural Language Models Outperform Large Language Models in Detection of Thought Disorder
Authors: Changye Li, Weizhe Xu, Serguei Pakhomov, Ellen Bradley, Dror Ben-Zeev, Trevor Cohen
Date: 2025-03-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Diagnostic, Privacy Preserving

Disorganized thinking is a key diagnostic indicator of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. Recently, clinical estimates of the severity of disorganized thinking have been shown to correlate with measures of how difficult speech transcripts would be for large language models (LLMs) to predict. However, LLMs' deployment challenges -- including privacy concerns, computational and financial costs, and lack of transparency of training data -- limit their clinical utility. We investigate whether smaller neural language models can serve as effective alternatives for detecting positive formal thought disorder, using the same sliding window based perplexity measurements that proved effective with larger models. Surprisingly, our results show that smaller models are more sensitive to linguistic differences associated with formal thought disorder than their larger counterparts. Detection capability declines beyond a certain model size and context length, challenging the common assumption of ``bigger is better'' for LLM-based applications. Our findings generalize across audio diaries and clinical interview speech samples from individuals with psychotic symptoms, suggesting a promising direction for developing efficient, cost-effective, and privacy-preserving screening tools that can be deployed in both clinical and naturalistic settings.
"Is There Anything Else?'': Examining Administrator Influence on Linguistic Features from the Cookie Theft Picture Description Cognitive Test
Authors: Changye Li, Zhecheng Sheng, Trevor Cohen, Serguei Pakhomov
Date: 2025-03-25 00:00:00

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) dementia is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that negatively impacts patients' cognitive ability. Previous studies have demonstrated that changes in naturalistic language samples can be useful for early screening of AD dementia. However, the nature of language deficits often requires test administrators to use various speech elicitation techniques during spontaneous language assessments to obtain enough propositional utterances from dementia patients. This could lead to the ``observer's effect'' on the downstream analysis that has not been fully investigated. Our study seeks to quantify the influence of test administrators on linguistic features in dementia assessment with two English corpora the ``Cookie Theft'' picture description datasets collected at different locations and test administrators show different levels of administrator involvement. Our results show that the level of test administrator involvement significantly impacts observed linguistic features in patient speech. These results suggest that many of significant linguistic features in the downstream classification task may be partially attributable to differences in the test administration practices rather than solely to participants' cognitive status. The variations in test administrator behavior can lead to systematic biases in linguistic data, potentially confounding research outcomes and clinical assessments. Our study suggests that there is a need for a more standardized test administration protocol in the development of responsible clinical speech analytics frameworks.
Efficient Model Development through Fine-tuning Transfer
Authors: Pin-Jie Lin, Rishab Balasubramanian, Fengyuan Liu, Nikhil Kandpal, Tu Vu
Date: 2025-03-25 00:00:00
Tasks: MMLU, model

Modern LLMs struggle with efficient updates, as each new pretrained model version requires repeating expensive alignment processes. This challenge also applies to domain- or language-specific models, where fine-tuning on specialized data must be redone for every new base model release. In this paper, we explore the transfer of fine-tuning updates between model versions. Specifically, we derive the diff vector from one source model version, which represents the weight changes from fine-tuning, and apply it to the base model of a different target version. Through empirical evaluations on various open-weight model versions, we show that transferring diff vectors can significantly improve the target base model, often achieving performance comparable to its fine-tuned counterpart. For example, reusing the fine-tuning updates from Llama 3.0 8B leads to an absolute accuracy improvement of 10.7% on GPQA over the base Llama 3.1 8B without additional training, surpassing Llama 3.1 8B Instruct. In a multilingual model development setting, we show that this approach can significantly increase performance on target-language tasks without retraining, achieving an absolute improvement of 4.7% and 15.5% on Global MMLU for Malagasy and Turkish, respectively, compared to Llama 3.1 8B Instruct. Our controlled experiments reveal that fine-tuning transfer is most effective when the source and target models are linearly connected in the parameter space. Additionally, we demonstrate that fine-tuning transfer offers a stronger and more computationally efficient starting point for further fine-tuning. Finally, we propose an iterative recycling-then-finetuning approach for continuous model development, which improves both efficiency and effectiveness. Our findings suggest that fine-tuning transfer is a viable strategy to reduce training costs while maintaining model performance.
Leveraging Implicit Sentiments: Enhancing Reliability and Validity in Psychological Trait Evaluation of LLMs
Authors: Huanhuan Ma, Haisong Gong, Xiaoyuan Yi, Xing Xie, Dongkuan Xu
Date: 2025-03-26 00:00:00

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to their increasing integration into human life. With the transition from mere tools to human-like assistants, understanding their psychological aspects-such as emotional tendencies and personalities-becomes essential for ensuring their trustworthiness. However, current psychological evaluations of LLMs, often based on human psychological assessments like the BFI, face significant limitations. The results from these approaches often lack reliability and have limited validity when predicting LLM behavior in real-world scenarios. In this work, we introduce a novel evaluation instrument specifically designed for LLMs, called Core Sentiment Inventory (CSI). CSI is a bilingual tool, covering both English and Chinese, that implicitly evaluates models' sentiment tendencies, providing an insightful psychological portrait of LLM across three dimensions: optimism, pessimism, and neutrality. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that: 1) CSI effectively captures nuanced emotional patterns, revealing significant variation in LLMs across languages and contexts; 2) Compared to current approaches, CSI significantly improves reliability, yielding more consistent results; and 3) The correlation between CSI scores and the sentiment of LLM's real-world outputs exceeds 0.85, demonstrating its strong validity in predicting LLM behavior. We make CSI public available via: https://github.com/dependentsign/CSI.