pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
From Words to Actions: Unveiling the Theoretical Underpinnings of LLM-Driven Autonomous Systems
Authors: Jianliang He, Siyu Chen, Fengzhuo Zhang, Zhuoran Yang
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning, Imitation Learning, In-Context Learning, Language Modelling, Large Language Model, Reinforcement Learning (RL), Task Planning

In this work, from a theoretical lens, we aim to understand why large language model (LLM) empowered agents are able to solve decision-making problems in the physical world. To this end, consider a hierarchical reinforcement learning (RL) model where the LLM Planner and the Actor perform high-level task planning and low-level execution, respectively. Under this model, the LLM Planner navigates a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) by iteratively generating language-based subgoals via prompting. Under proper assumptions on the pretraining data, we prove that the pretrained LLM Planner effectively performs Bayesian aggregated imitation learning (BAIL) through in-context learning. Additionally, we highlight the necessity for exploration beyond the subgoals derived from BAIL by proving that naively executing the subgoals returned by LLM leads to a linear regret. As a remedy, we introduce an $\epsilon$-greedy exploration strategy to BAIL, which is proven to incur sublinear regret when the pretraining error is small. Finally, we extend our theoretical framework to include scenarios where the LLM Planner serves as a world model for inferring the transition model of the environment and to multi-agent settings, enabling coordination among multiple Actors.
Learning from Random Demonstrations: Offline Reinforcement Learning with Importance-Sampled Diffusion Models
Authors: Zeyu Fang, Tian Lan
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: D4RL, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning

Generative models such as diffusion have been employed as world models in offline reinforcement learning to generate synthetic data for more effective learning. Existing work either generates diffusion models one-time prior to training or requires additional interaction data to update it. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for offline reinforcement learning with closed-loop policy evaluation and world-model adaptation. It iteratively leverages a guided diffusion world model to directly evaluate the offline target policy with actions drawn from it, and then performs an importance-sampled world model update to adaptively align the world model with the updated policy. We analyzed the performance of the proposed method and provided an upper bound on the return gap between our method and the real environment under an optimal policy. The result sheds light on various factors affecting learning performance. Evaluations in the D4RL environment show significant improvement over state-of-the-art baselines, especially when only random or medium-expertise demonstrations are available -- thus requiring improved alignment between the world model and offline policy evaluation.
On Vessel Location Forecasting and the Effect of Federated Learning
Authors: Andreas Tritsarolis, Nikos Pelekis, Konstantina Bereta, Dimitris Zissis, Yannis Theodoridis
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Federated Learning

The wide spread of Automatic Identification System (AIS) has motivated several maritime analytics operations. Vessel Location Forecasting (VLF) is one of the most critical operations for maritime awareness. However, accurate VLF is a challenging problem due to the complexity and dynamic nature of maritime traffic conditions. Furthermore, as privacy concerns and restrictions have grown, training data has become increasingly fragmented, resulting in dispersed databases of several isolated data silos among different organizations, which in turn decreases the quality of learning models. In this paper, we propose an efficient VLF solution based on LSTM neural networks, in two variants, namely Nautilus and FedNautilus for the centralized and the federated learning approach, respectively. We also demonstrate the superiority of the centralized approach with respect to current state of the art and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the federated against the centralized approach.
The Merit of River Network Topology for Neural Flood Forecasting
Authors: Nikolas Kirschstein, Yixuan Sun
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00

Climate change exacerbates riverine floods, which occur with higher frequency and intensity than ever. The much-needed forecasting systems typically rely on accurate river discharge predictions. To this end, the SOTA data-driven approaches treat forecasting at spatially distributed gauge stations as isolated problems, even within the same river network. However, incorporating the known topology of the river network into the prediction model has the potential to leverage the adjacency relationship between gauges. Thus, we model river discharge for a network of gauging stations with GNNs and compare the forecasting performance achieved by different adjacency definitions. Our results show that the model fails to benefit from the river network topology information, both on the entire network and small subgraphs. The learned edge weights correlate with neither of the static definitions and exhibit no regular pattern. Furthermore, the GNNs struggle to predict sudden, narrow discharge spikes. Our work hints at a more general underlying phenomenon of neural prediction not always benefitting from graphical structure and may inspire a systematic study of the conditions under which this happens.
Approximate Global Convergence of Independent Learning in Multi-Agent Systems
Authors: Ruiyang Jin, Zaiwei Chen, Yiheng Lin, Jie Song, Adam Wierman
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Q-Learning

Independent learning (IL), despite being a popular approach in practice to achieve scalability in large-scale multi-agent systems, usually lacks global convergence guarantees. In this paper, we study two representative algorithms, independent $Q$-learning and independent natural actor-critic, within value-based and policy-based frameworks, and provide the first finite-sample analysis for approximate global convergence. The results imply a sample complexity of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\epsilon^{-2})$ up to an error term that captures the dependence among agents and characterizes the fundamental limit of IL in achieving global convergence. To establish the result, we develop a novel approach for analyzing IL by constructing a separable Markov decision process (MDP) for convergence analysis and then bounding the gap due to model difference between the separable MDP and the original one. Moreover, we conduct numerical experiments using a synthetic MDP and an electric vehicle charging example to verify our theoretical findings and to demonstrate the practical applicability of IL.
MetaCURL: Non-stationary Concave Utility Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Bianca Marin Moreno, Margaux Brégère, Pierre Gaillard, Nadia Oudjane
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning

We explore online learning in episodic loop-free Markov decision processes on non-stationary environments (changing losses and probability transitions). Our focus is on the Concave Utility Reinforcement Learning problem (CURL), an extension of classical RL for handling convex performance criteria in state-action distributions induced by agent policies. While various machine learning problems can be written as CURL, its non-linearity invalidates traditional Bellman equations. Despite recent solutions to classical CURL, none address non-stationary MDPs. This paper introduces MetaCURL, the first CURL algorithm for non-stationary MDPs. It employs a meta-algorithm running multiple black-box algorithms instances over different intervals, aggregating outputs via a sleeping expert framework. The key hurdle is partial information due to MDP uncertainty. Under partial information on the probability transitions (uncertainty and non-stationarity coming only from external noise, independent of agent state-action pairs), we achieve optimal dynamic regret without prior knowledge of MDP changes. Unlike approaches for RL, MetaCURL handles full adversarial losses, not just stochastic ones. We believe our approach for managing non-stationarity with experts can be of interest to the RL community.
Preference Alignment with Flow Matching
Authors: Minu Kim, Yongsik Lee, Sehyeok Kang, Jihwan Oh, Song Chong, Se-Young Yun
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00

We present Preference Flow Matching (PFM), a new framework for preference-based reinforcement learning (PbRL) that streamlines the integration of preferences into an arbitrary class of pre-trained models. Existing PbRL methods require fine-tuning pre-trained models, which presents challenges such as scalability, inefficiency, and the need for model modifications, especially with black-box APIs like GPT-4. In contrast, PFM utilizes flow matching techniques to directly learn from preference data, thereby reducing the dependency on extensive fine-tuning of pre-trained models. By leveraging flow-based models, PFM transforms less preferred data into preferred outcomes, and effectively aligns model outputs with human preferences without relying on explicit or implicit reward function estimation, thus avoiding common issues like overfitting in reward models. We provide theoretical insights that support our method's alignment with standard PbRL objectives. Experimental results indicate the practical effectiveness of our method, offering a new direction in aligning a pre-trained model to preference. Our code is available at https://github.com/jadehaus/preference-flow-matching.
Complexity of Injectivity and Verification of ReLU Neural Networks
Authors: Vincent Froese, Moritz Grillo, Martin Skutella
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00

Neural networks with ReLU activation play a key role in modern machine learning. Understanding the functions represented by ReLU networks is a major topic in current research as this enables a better interpretability of learning processes. Injectivity of a function computed by a ReLU network, that is, the question if different inputs to the network always lead to different outputs, plays a crucial role whenever invertibility of the function is required, such as, e.g., for inverse problems or generative models. The exact computational complexity of deciding injectivity was recently posed as an open problem (Puthawala et al. [JMLR 2022]). We answer this question by proving coNP-completeness. On the positive side, we show that the problem for a single ReLU-layer is still tractable for small input dimension; more precisely, we present a parameterized algorithm which yields fixed-parameter tractability with respect to the input dimension. In addition, we study the network verification problem which is to verify that certain inputs only yield specific outputs. This is of great importance since neural networks are increasingly used in safety-critical systems. We prove that network verification is coNP-hard for a general class of input domains. Our results also exclude constant-factor polynomial-time approximations for the maximum of a function computed by a ReLU network. In this context, we also characterize surjectivity of functions computed by ReLU networks with one-dimensional output which turns out to be the complement of a basic network verification task. We reveal interesting connections to computational convexity by formulating the surjectivity problem as a zonotope containment problem
Exploring Key Factors for Long-Term Vessel Incident Risk Prediction
Authors: Tianyi Chen, Hua Wang, Yutong Cai, Maohan Liang, Qiang Meng
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: feature selection, Management, Prediction

Factor analysis acts a pivotal role in enhancing maritime safety. Most previous studies conduct factor analysis within the framework of incident-related label prediction, where the developed models can be categorized into short-term and long-term prediction models. The long-term models offer a more strategic approach, enabling more proactive risk management, compared to the short-term ones. Nevertheless, few studies have devoted to rigorously identifying the key factors for the long-term prediction and undertaking comprehensive factor analysis. Hence, this study aims to delve into the key factors for predicting the incident risk levels in the subsequent year given a specific datestamp. The majority of candidate factors potentially contributing to the incident risk are collected from vessels' historical safety performance data spanning up to five years. An improved embedded feature selection, which integrates Random Forest classifier with a feature filtering process is proposed to identify key risk-contributing factors from the candidate pool. The results demonstrate superior performance of the proposed method in incident prediction and factor interpretability. Comprehensive analysis is conducted upon the key factors, which could help maritime stakeholders formulate management strategies for incident prevenion.
Estimating before Debiasing: A Bayesian Approach to Detaching Prior Bias in Federated Semi-Supervised Learning
Authors: Guogang Zhu, Xuefeng Liu, Xinghao Wu, Shaojie Tang, Chao Tang, Jianwei Niu, Hao Su
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction

Federated Semi-Supervised Learning (FSSL) leverages both labeled and unlabeled data on clients to collaboratively train a model.In FSSL, the heterogeneous data can introduce prediction bias into the model, causing the model's prediction to skew towards some certain classes. Existing FSSL methods primarily tackle this issue by enhancing consistency in model parameters or outputs. However, as the models themselves are biased, merely constraining their consistency is not sufficient to alleviate prediction bias. In this paper, we explore this bias from a Bayesian perspective and demonstrate that it principally originates from label prior bias within the training data. Building upon this insight, we propose a debiasing method for FSSL named FedDB. FedDB utilizes the Average Prediction Probability of Unlabeled Data (APP-U) to approximate the biased prior.During local training, FedDB employs APP-U to refine pseudo-labeling through Bayes' theorem, thereby significantly reducing the label prior bias. Concurrently, during the model aggregation, FedDB uses APP-U from participating clients to formulate unbiased aggregate weights, thereby effectively diminishing bias in the global model. Experimental results show that FedDB can surpass existing FSSL methods. The code is available at https://github.com/GuogangZhu/FedDB.
Recurrent Deep Kernel Learning of Dynamical Systems
Authors: Nicolò Botteghi, Paolo Motta, Andrea Manzoni, Paolo Zunino, Mengwu Guo
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Denoising

Digital twins require computationally-efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) that can accurately describe complex dynamics of physical assets. However, constructing ROMs from noisy high-dimensional data is challenging. In this work, we propose a data-driven, non-intrusive method that utilizes stochastic variational deep kernel learning (SVDKL) to discover low-dimensional latent spaces from data and a recurrent version of SVDKL for representing and predicting the evolution of latent dynamics. The proposed method is demonstrated with two challenging examples -- a double pendulum and a reaction-diffusion system. Results show that our framework is capable of (i) denoising and reconstructing measurements, (ii) learning compact representations of system states, (iii) predicting system evolution in low-dimensional latent spaces, and (iv) quantifying modeling uncertainties.
Automatic Graph Topology-Aware Transformer
Authors: Chao Wang, Jiaxuan Zhao, Lingling Li, Licheng Jiao, Fang Liu, Shuyuan Yang
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00

Existing efforts are dedicated to designing many topologies and graph-aware strategies for the graph Transformer, which greatly improve the model's representation capabilities. However, manually determining the suitable Transformer architecture for a specific graph dataset or task requires extensive expert knowledge and laborious trials. This paper proposes an evolutionary graph Transformer architecture search framework (EGTAS) to automate the construction of strong graph Transformers. We build a comprehensive graph Transformer search space with the micro-level and macro-level designs. EGTAS evolves graph Transformer topologies at the macro level and graph-aware strategies at the micro level. Furthermore, a surrogate model based on generic architectural coding is proposed to directly predict the performance of graph Transformers, substantially reducing the evaluation cost of evolutionary search. We demonstrate the efficacy of EGTAS across a range of graph-level and node-level tasks, encompassing both small-scale and large-scale graph datasets. Experimental results and ablation studies show that EGTAS can construct high-performance architectures that rival state-of-the-art manual and automated baselines.
Identifiability of a statistical model with two latent vectors: Importance of the dimensionality relation and application to graph embedding
Authors: Hiroaki Sasaki
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Graph Embedding, Representation Learning

Identifiability of statistical models is a key notion in unsupervised representation learning. Recent work of nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) employs auxiliary data and has established identifiable conditions. This paper proposes a statistical model of two latent vectors with single auxiliary data generalizing nonlinear ICA, and establishes various identifiability conditions. Unlike previous work, the two latent vectors in the proposed model can have arbitrary dimensions, and this property enables us to reveal an insightful dimensionality relation among two latent vectors and auxiliary data in identifiability conditions. Furthermore, surprisingly, we prove that the indeterminacies of the proposed model has the same as \emph{linear} ICA under certain conditions: The elements in the latent vector can be recovered up to their permutation and scales. Next, we apply the identifiability theory to a statistical model for graph data. As a result, one of the identifiability conditions includes an appealing implication: Identifiability of the statistical model could depend on the maximum value of link weights in graph data. Then, we propose a practical method for identifiable graph embedding. Finally, we numerically demonstrate that the proposed method well-recovers the latent vectors and model identifiability clearly depends on the maximum value of link weights, which supports the implication of our theoretical results
Understanding Memory-Regret Trade-Off for Streaming Stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits
Authors: Yuchen He, Zichun Ye, Chihao Zhang
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Multi-Armed Bandits

We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem in the $P$-pass streaming model. In this problem, the $n$ arms are present in a stream and at most $m<n$ arms and their statistics can be stored in the memory. We give a complete characterization of the optimal regret in terms of $m, n$ and $P$. Specifically, we design an algorithm with $\tilde O\left((n-m)^{1+\frac{2^{P}-2}{2^{P+1}-1}} n^{\frac{2-2^{P+1}}{2^{P+1}-1}} T^{\frac{2^P}{2^{P+1}-1}}\right)$ regret and complement it with an $\tilde \Omega\left((n-m)^{1+\frac{2^{P}-2}{2^{P+1}-1}} n^{\frac{2-2^{P+1}}{2^{P+1}-1}} T^{\frac{2^P}{2^{P+1}-1}}\right)$ lower bound when the number of rounds $T$ is sufficiently large. Our results are tight up to a logarithmic factor in $n$ and $P$.
Understanding and mitigating difficulties in posterior predictive evaluation
Authors: Abhinav Agrawal, Justin Domke
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference

Predictive posterior densities (PPDs) are of interest in approximate Bayesian inference. Typically, these are estimated by simple Monte Carlo (MC) averages using samples from the approximate posterior. We observe that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of such estimators can be extremely low. An analysis for exact inference reveals SNR decays exponentially as there is an increase in (a) the mismatch between training and test data, (b) the dimensionality of the latent space, or (c) the size of the test data relative to the training data. Further analysis extends these results to approximate inference. To remedy the low SNR problem, we propose replacing simple MC sampling with importance sampling using a proposal distribution optimized at test time on a variational proxy for the SNR and demonstrate that this yields greatly improved estimates.
Universal Online Convex Optimization with $1$ Projection per Round
Authors: Wenhao Yang, Yibo Wang, Peng Zhao, Lijun Zhang
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00

To address the uncertainty in function types, recent progress in online convex optimization (OCO) has spurred the development of universal algorithms that simultaneously attain minimax rates for multiple types of convex functions. However, for a $T$-round online problem, state-of-the-art methods typically conduct $O(\log T)$ projections onto the domain in each round, a process potentially time-consuming with complicated feasible sets. In this paper, inspired by the black-box reduction of Cutkosky and Orabona (2018), we employ a surrogate loss defined over simpler domains to develop universal OCO algorithms that only require $1$ projection. Embracing the framework of prediction with expert advice, we maintain a set of experts for each type of functions and aggregate their predictions via a meta-algorithm. The crux of our approach lies in a uniquely designed expert-loss for strongly convex functions, stemming from an innovative decomposition of the regret into the meta-regret and the expert-regret. Our analysis sheds new light on the surrogate loss, facilitating a rigorous examination of the discrepancy between the regret of the original loss and that of the surrogate loss, and carefully controlling meta-regret under the strong convexity condition. In this way, with only $1$ projection per round, we establish optimal regret bounds for general convex, exponentially concave, and strongly convex functions simultaneously. Furthermore, we enhance the expert-loss to exploit the smoothness property, and demonstrate that our algorithm can attain small-loss regret for multiple types of convex and smooth functions.
Enhancing Sufficient Dimension Reduction via Hellinger Correlation
Authors: Seungbeom Hong, Ilmun Kim, Jun Song
Date: 2024-05-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Dimensionality Reduction

In this work, we develop a new theory and method for sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) in single-index models, where SDR is a sub-field of supervised dimension reduction based on conditional independence. Our work is primarily motivated by the recent introduction of the Hellinger correlation as a dependency measure. Utilizing this measure, we develop a method capable of effectively detecting the dimension reduction subspace, complete with theoretical justification. Through extensive numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed method significantly enhances and outperforms existing SDR methods. This improvement is largely attributed to our proposed method's deeper understanding of data dependencies and the refinement of existing SDR techniques.