pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
SHIRE: Enhancing Sample Efficiency using Human Intuition in REinforcement Learning
Authors: Amogh Joshi, Adarsh Kumar Kosta, Kaushik Roy
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Reinforcement Learning, Optical Flow Estimation, Q-Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Simultaneous Localization and Mapping

The ability of neural networks to perform robotic perception and control tasks such as depth and optical flow estimation, simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM), and automatic control has led to their widespread adoption in recent years. Deep Reinforcement Learning has been used extensively in these settings, as it does not have the unsustainable training costs associated with supervised learning. However, DeepRL suffers from poor sample efficiency, i.e., it requires a large number of environmental interactions to converge to an acceptable solution. Modern RL algorithms such as Deep Q Learning and Soft Actor-Critic attempt to remedy this shortcoming but can not provide the explainability required in applications such as autonomous robotics. Humans intuitively understand the long-time-horizon sequential tasks common in robotics. Properly using such intuition can make RL policies more explainable while enhancing their sample efficiency. In this work, we propose SHIRE, a novel framework for encoding human intuition using Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) and using it in the Deep RL training pipeline to enhance sample efficiency. Our framework achieves 25-78% sample efficiency gains across the environments we evaluate at negligible overhead cost. Additionally, by teaching RL agents the encoded elementary behavior, SHIRE enhances policy explainability. A real-world demonstration further highlights the efficacy of policies trained using our framework.
Convergence of Sharpness-Aware Minimization Algorithms using Increasing Batch Size and Decaying Learning Rate
Authors: Hinata Harada, Hideaki Iiduka
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00

The sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) algorithm and its variants, including gap guided SAM (GSAM), have been successful at improving the generalization capability of deep neural network models by finding flat local minima of the empirical loss in training. Meanwhile, it has been shown theoretically and practically that increasing the batch size or decaying the learning rate avoids sharp local minima of the empirical loss. In this paper, we consider the GSAM algorithm with increasing batch sizes or decaying learning rates, such as cosine annealing or linear learning rate, and theoretically show its convergence. Moreover, we numerically compare SAM (GSAM) with and without an increasing batch size and conclude that using an increasing batch size or decaying learning rate finds flatter local minima than using a constant batch size and learning rate.
From Bytes to Bites: Using Country Specific Machine Learning Models to Predict Famine
Authors: Salloni Kapoor, Simeon Sayer
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Nutrition

Hunger crises are critical global issues affecting millions, particularly in low-income and developing countries. This research investigates how machine learning can be utilized to predict and inform decisions regarding famine and hunger crises. By leveraging a diverse set of variables (natural, economic, and conflict-related), three machine learning models (Linear Regression, XGBoost, and RandomForestRegressor) were employed to predict food consumption scores, a key indicator of household nutrition. The RandomForestRegressor emerged as the most accurate model, with an average prediction error of 10.6%, though accuracy varied significantly across countries, ranging from 2% to over 30%. Notably, economic indicators were consistently the most significant predictors of average household nutrition, while no single feature dominated across all regions, underscoring the necessity for comprehensive data collection and tailored, country-specific models. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning, particularly Random Forests, to enhance famine prediction, suggesting that continued research and improved data gathering are essential for more effective global hunger forecasting.
Context-Conditioned Spatio-Temporal Predictive Learning for Reliable V2V Channel Prediction
Authors: Lei Chu, Daoud Burghal, Rui Wang, Michael Neuman, Andreas F. Molisch
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Meta-Learning

Achieving reliable multidimensional Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) channel state information (CSI) prediction is both challenging and crucial for optimizing downstream tasks that depend on instantaneous CSI. This work extends traditional prediction approaches by focusing on four-dimensional (4D) CSI, which includes predictions over time, bandwidth, and antenna (TX and RX) space. Such a comprehensive framework is essential for addressing the dynamic nature of mobility environments within intelligent transportation systems, necessitating the capture of both temporal and spatial dependencies across diverse domains. To address this complexity, we propose a novel context-conditioned spatiotemporal predictive learning method. This method leverages causal convolutional long short-term memory (CA-ConvLSTM) to effectively capture dependencies within 4D CSI data, and incorporates context-conditioned attention mechanisms to enhance the efficiency of spatiotemporal memory updates. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive meta-learning scheme tailored for recurrent networks to mitigate the issue of accumulative prediction errors. We validate the proposed method through empirical studies conducted across three different geometric configurations and mobility scenarios. Our results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art predictive models, achieving superior performance across various geometries. Moreover, we show that the meta-learning framework significantly enhances the performance of recurrent-based predictive models in highly challenging cross-geometry settings, thus highlighting its robustness and adaptability.
Optimal ablation for interpretability
Authors: Maximilian Li, Lucas Janson
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00

Interpretability studies often involve tracing the flow of information through machine learning models to identify specific model components that perform relevant computations for tasks of interest. Prior work quantifies the importance of a model component on a particular task by measuring the impact of performing ablation on that component, or simulating model inference with the component disabled. We propose a new method, optimal ablation (OA), and show that OA-based component importance has theoretical and empirical advantages over measuring importance via other ablation methods. We also show that OA-based component importance can benefit several downstream interpretability tasks, including circuit discovery, localization of factual recall, and latent prediction.
Mobility-GCN: a human mobility-based graph convolutional network for tracking and analyzing the spatial dynamics of the synthetic opioid crisis in the USA, 2013-2020
Authors: Zhiyue Xia, Kathleen Stewart
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00

Synthetic opioids are the most common drugs involved in drug-involved overdose mortalities in the U.S. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported that in 2018, about 70% of all drug overdose deaths involved opioids and 67% of all opioid-involved deaths were accounted for by synthetic opioids. In this study, we investigated the spread of synthetic opioids between 2013 and 2020 in the U.S. We analyzed the relationship between the spatiotemporal pattern of synthetic opioid-involved deaths and another key opioid, heroin, and compared patterns of deaths involving these two types of drugs during this period. Spatial connections and human mobility between counties were incorporated into a graph convolutional neural network model to represent and analyze the spread of synthetic opioid-involved deaths in the context of previous heroin-involved death patterns.
Generalizability of Graph Neural Network Force Fields for Predicting Solid-State Properties
Authors: Shaswat Mohanty, Yifan Wang, Wei Cai
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Graph Neural Network

Machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) promise to offer a computationally efficient alternative to ab initio simulations for complex molecular systems. However, ensuring their generalizability beyond training data is crucial for their wide application in studying solid materials. This work investigates the ability of a graph neural network (GNN)-based MLFF, trained on Lennard-Jones Argon, to describe solid-state phenomena not explicitly included during training. We assess the MLFF's performance in predicting phonon density of states (PDOS) for a perfect face-centered cubic (FCC) crystal structure at both zero and finite temperatures. Additionally, we evaluate vacancy migration rates and energy barriers in an imperfect crystal using direct molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and the string method. Notably, vacancy configurations were absent from the training data. Our results demonstrate the MLFF's capability to capture essential solid-state properties with good agreement to reference data, even for unseen configurations. We further discuss data engineering strategies to enhance the generalizability of MLFFs. The proposed set of benchmark tests and workflow for evaluating MLFF performance in describing perfect and imperfect crystals pave the way for reliable application of MLFFs in studying complex solid-state materials.
Mining of Switching Sparse Networks for Missing Value Imputation in Multivariate Time Series
Authors: Kohei Obata, Koki Kawabata, Yasuko Matsubara, Yasushi Sakurai
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Imputation, Missing Values, Multivariate Time Series Imputation, Time Series

Multivariate time series data suffer from the problem of missing values, which hinders the application of many analytical methods. To achieve the accurate imputation of these missing values, exploiting inter-correlation by employing the relationships between sequences (i.e., a network) is as important as the use of temporal dependency, since a sequence normally correlates with other sequences. Moreover, exploiting an adequate network depending on time is also necessary since the network varies over time. However, in real-world scenarios, we normally know neither the network structure nor when the network changes beforehand. Here, we propose a missing value imputation method for multivariate time series, namely MissNet, that is designed to exploit temporal dependency with a state-space model and inter-correlation by switching sparse networks. The network encodes conditional independence between features, which helps us understand the important relationships for imputation visually. Our algorithm, which scales linearly with reference to the length of the data, alternatively infers networks and fills in missing values using the networks while discovering the switching of the networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MissNet outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms for multivariate time series imputation and provides interpretable results.
Multi-Step Embed to Control: A Novel Deep Learning-based Approach for Surrogate Modelling in Reservoir Simulation
Authors: Jungang Chen, Eduardo Gildin, John Killough
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Descriptive, Prediction

Reduced-order models, also known as proxy model or surrogate model, are approximate models that are less computational expensive as opposed to fully descriptive models. With the integration of machine learning, these models have garnered increasing research interests recently. However, many existing reduced-order modeling methods, such as embed to control (E2C) and embed to control and observe (E2CO), fall short in long-term predictions due to the accumulation of prediction errors over time. This issue arises partly from the one-step prediction framework inherent in E2C and E2CO architectures. This paper introduces a deep learning-based surrogate model, referred as multi-step embed-to-control model, for the construction of proxy models with improved long-term prediction performance. Unlike E2C and E2CO, the proposed network considers multiple forward transitions in the latent space at a time using Koopman operator, allowing the model to incorporate a sequence of state snapshots during training phrases. Additionally, the loss function of this novel approach has been redesigned to accommodate these multiple transitions and to respect the underlying physical principles. To validate the efficacy of the proposed method, the developed framework was implemented within two-phase (oil and water) reservoir model under a waterflooding scheme. Comparative analysis demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms the conventional E2C model in long-term simulation scenarios. Notably, there was a substantial reduction in temporal errors in the prediction of saturation profiles and a decent improvement in pressure forecasting accuracy.
Variance-reduced first-order methods for deterministically constrained stochastic nonconvex optimization with strong convergence guarantees
Authors: Zhaosong Lu, Sanyou Mei, Yifeng Xiao
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Stochastic Optimization

In this paper, we study a class of deterministically constrained stochastic optimization problems. Existing methods typically aim to find an $\epsilon$-stochastic stationary point, where the expected violations of both constraints and first-order stationarity are within a prescribed accuracy $\epsilon$. However, in many practical applications, it is crucial that the constraints be nearly satisfied with certainty, making such an $\epsilon$-stochastic stationary point potentially undesirable due to the risk of significant constraint violations. To address this issue, we propose single-loop variance-reduced stochastic first-order methods, where the stochastic gradient of the stochastic component is computed using either a truncated recursive momentum scheme or a truncated Polyak momentum scheme for variance reduction, while the gradient of the deterministic component is computed exactly. Under the error bound condition with a parameter $\theta \geq 1$ and other suitable assumptions, we establish that these methods respectively achieve a sample and first-order operation complexity of $\widetilde O(\epsilon^{-\max\{\theta+2, 2\theta\}})$ and $\widetilde O(\epsilon^{-\max\{4, 2\theta\}})$ for finding a stronger $\epsilon$-stochastic stationary point, where the constraint violation is within $\epsilon$ with certainty, and the expected violation of first-order stationarity is within $\epsilon$. For $\theta=1$, these complexities reduce to $\widetilde O(\epsilon^{-3})$ and $\widetilde O(\epsilon^{-4})$ respectively, which match, up to a logarithmic factor, the best-known complexities achieved by existing methods for finding an $\epsilon$-stochastic stationary point of unconstrained smooth stochastic optimization problems.
Learning large softmax mixtures with warm start EM
Authors: Xin Bing, Florentina Bunea, Jonathan Niles-Weed, Marten Wegkamp
Date: 2024-09-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Attribute, parameter estimation

Mixed multinomial logits are discrete mixtures introduced several decades ago to model the probability of choosing an attribute from $p$ possible candidates, in heterogeneous populations. The model has recently attracted attention in the AI literature, under the name softmax mixtures, where it is routinely used in the final layer of a neural network to map a large number $p$ of vectors in $\mathbb{R}^L$ to a probability vector. Despite its wide applicability and empirical success, statistically optimal estimators of the mixture parameters, obtained via algorithms whose running time scales polynomially in $L$, are not known. This paper provides a solution to this problem for contemporary applications, such as large language models, in which the mixture has a large number $p$ of support points, and the size $N$ of the sample observed from the mixture is also large. Our proposed estimator combines two classical estimators, obtained respectively via a method of moments (MoM) and the expectation-minimization (EM) algorithm. Although both estimator types have been studied, from a theoretical perspective, for Gaussian mixtures, no similar results exist for softmax mixtures for either procedure. We develop a new MoM parameter estimator based on latent moment estimation that is tailored to our model, and provide the first theoretical analysis for a MoM-based procedure in softmax mixtures. Although consistent, MoM for softmax mixtures can exhibit poor numerical performance, as observed other mixture models. Nevertheless, as MoM is provably in a neighborhood of the target, it can be used as warm start for any iterative algorithm. We study in detail the EM algorithm, and provide its first theoretical analysis for softmax mixtures. Our final proposal for parameter estimation is the EM algorithm with a MoM warm start.
Estimating Wage Disparities Using Foundation Models
Authors: Keyon Vafa, Susan Athey, David M. Blei
Date: 2024-09-15 00:00:00
Tasks: Econometrics

The rise of foundation models marks a paradigm shift in machine learning: instead of training specialized models from scratch, foundation models are first trained on massive datasets before being adapted or fine-tuned to make predictions on smaller datasets. Initially developed for text, foundation models have also excelled at making predictions about social science data. However, while many estimation problems in the social sciences use prediction as an intermediate step, they ultimately require different criteria for success. In this paper, we develop methods for fine-tuning foundation models to perform these estimation problems. We first characterize an omitted variable bias that can arise when a foundation model is only fine-tuned to maximize predictive accuracy. We then provide a novel set of conditions for fine-tuning under which estimates derived from a foundation model are root-n-consistent. Based on this theory, we develop new fine-tuning algorithms that empirically mitigate this omitted variable bias. To demonstrate our ideas, we study gender wage decomposition. This is a statistical estimation problem from econometrics where the goal is to decompose the gender wage gap into components that can and cannot be explained by career histories of workers. Classical methods for decomposing the wage gap employ simple predictive models of wages which condition on coarse summaries of career history that may omit factors that are important for explaining the gap. Instead, we use a custom-built foundation model to decompose the gender wage gap, which captures a richer representation of career history. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that career history explains more of the gender wage gap than standard econometric models can measure, and we identify elements of career history that are omitted by standard models but are important for explaining the wage gap.
Dynamic Fraud Detection: Integrating Reinforcement Learning into Graph Neural Networks
Authors: Yuxin Dong, Jianhua Yao, Jiajing Wang, Yingbin Liang, ShuHan Liao, Minheng Xiao
Date: 2024-09-15 00:00:00
Tasks: Fraud Detection

Financial fraud refers to the act of obtaining financial benefits through dishonest means. Such behavior not only disrupts the order of the financial market but also harms economic and social development and breeds other illegal and criminal activities. With the popularization of the internet and online payment methods, many fraudulent activities and money laundering behaviors in life have shifted from offline to online, posing a great challenge to regulatory authorities. How to efficiently detect these financial fraud activities has become an urgent issue that needs to be resolved. Graph neural networks are a type of deep learning model that can utilize the interactive relationships within graph structures, and they have been widely applied in the field of fraud detection. However, there are still some issues. First, fraudulent activities only account for a very small part of transaction transfers, leading to an inevitable problem of label imbalance in fraud detection. At the same time, fraudsters often disguise their behavior, which can have a negative impact on the final prediction results. In addition, existing research has overlooked the importance of balancing neighbor information and central node information. For example, when the central node has too many neighbors, the features of the central node itself are often neglected. Finally, fraud activities and patterns are constantly changing over time, so considering the dynamic evolution of graph edge relationships is also very important.
Flexible Diffusion Scopes with Parameterized Laplacian for Heterophilic Graph Learning
Authors: Qincheng Lu, Jiaqi Zhu, Sitao Luan, Xiao-Wen Chang
Date: 2024-09-15 00:00:00
Tasks: Graph Attention, Graph Learning

The ability of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to capture long-range and global topology information is limited by the scope of conventional graph Laplacian, leading to unsatisfactory performance on some datasets, particularly on heterophilic graphs. To address this limitation, we propose a new class of parameterized Laplacian matrices, which provably offers more flexibility in controlling the diffusion distance between nodes than the conventional graph Laplacian, allowing long-range information to be adaptively captured through diffusion on graph. Specifically, we first prove that the diffusion distance and spectral distance on graph have an order-preserving relationship. With this result, we demonstrate that the parameterized Laplacian can accelerate the diffusion of long-range information, and the parameters in the Laplacian enable flexibility of the diffusion scopes. Based on the theoretical results, we propose topology-guided rewiring mechanism to capture helpful long-range neighborhood information for heterophilic graphs. With this mechanism and the new Laplacian, we propose two GNNs with flexible diffusion scopes: namely the Parameterized Diffusion based Graph Convolutional Networks (PD-GCN) and Graph Attention Networks (PD-GAT). Synthetic experiments reveal the high correlations between the parameters of the new Laplacian and the performance of parameterized GNNs under various graph homophily levels, which verifies that our new proposed GNNs indeed have the ability to adjust the parameters to adaptively capture the global information for different levels of heterophilic graphs. They also outperform the state-of-the-art (SOTA) models on 6 out of 7 real-world benchmark datasets, which further confirms their superiority.