pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Gaussian Invariant Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Authors: Michalis K. Titsias, Angelos Alexopoulos, Siran Liu, Petros Dellaportas
Date: 2025-06-26 00:00:00

We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA we show that Gaussian invariant sampling can lead to ergodic estimators with improved statistical efficiency. This is due to a remarkable property of Gaussian invariance that allows us to obtain exact analytical solutions to the Poisson equation for Gaussian targets. These solutions can be used to construct efficient and easy to use control variates for variance reduction of estimators under any intractable target. We demonstrate the new samplers and estimators in several examples, including high dimensional targets in latent Gaussian models where we compare against several advanced methods and obtain state-of-the-art results. We also provide theoretical results regarding geometric ergodicity, and an optimal scaling analysis that shows the dependence of the optimal acceptance rate on the Gaussianity of the target.
Transformer-Based Spatial-Temporal Counterfactual Outcomes Estimation
Authors: He Li, Haoang Chi, MingYu Liu, Wanrong Huang, Liyang Xu, Wenjing Yang
Date: 2025-06-26 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual

The real world naturally has dimensions of time and space. Therefore, estimating the counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes is a crucial problem. However, previous methods are based on classical statistical models, which still have limitations in performance and generalization. This paper proposes a novel framework for estimating counterfactual outcomes with spatial-temporal attributes using the Transformer, exhibiting stronger estimation ability. Under mild assumptions, the proposed estimator within this framework is consistent and asymptotically normal. To validate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct simulation experiments and real data experiments. Simulation experiments show that our estimator has a stronger estimation capability than baseline methods. Real data experiments provide a valuable conclusion to the causal effect of conflicts on forest loss in Colombia. The source code is available at https://github.com/lihe-maxsize/DeppSTCI_Release_Version-master.
Identifying Macro Causal Effects in C-DMGs over DMGs
Authors: Simon Ferreira, Charles K. Assaad
Date: 2025-06-24 00:00:00

The do-calculus is a sound and complete tool for identifying causal effects in acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) induced by structural causal models (SCMs). However, in many real-world applications, especially in high-dimensional setting, constructing a fully specified ADMG is often infeasible. This limitation has led to growing interest in partially specified causal representations, particularly through cluster-directed mixed graphs (C-DMGs), which group variables into clusters and offer a more abstract yet practical view of causal dependencies. While these representations can include cycles, recent work has shown that the do-calculus remains sound and complete for identifying macro-level causal effects in C-DMGs over ADMGs under the assumption that all clusters size are greater than 1. Nevertheless, real-world systems often exhibit cyclic causal dynamics at the structural level. To account for this, input-output structural causal models (ioSCMs) have been introduced as a generalization of SCMs that allow for cycles. ioSCMs induce another type of graph structure known as a directed mixed graph (DMG). Analogous to the ADMG setting, one can define C-DMGs over DMGs as high-level representations of causal relations among clusters of variables. In this paper, we prove that, unlike in the ADMG setting, the do-calculus is unconditionally sound and complete for identifying macro causal effects in C-DMGs over DMGs. Furthermore, we show that the graphical criteria for non-identifiability of macro causal effects previously established C-DMGs over ADMGs naturally extends to a subset of C-DMGs over DMGs.
Double Machine Learning for Conditional Moment Restrictions: IV Regression, Proximal Causal Learning and Beyond
Authors: Daqian Shao, Ashkan Soleymani, Francesco Quinzan, Marta Kwiatkowska
Date: 2025-06-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference, Econometrics

Solving conditional moment restrictions (CMRs) is a key problem considered in statistics, causal inference, and econometrics, where the aim is to solve for a function of interest that satisfies some conditional moment equalities. Specifically, many techniques for causal inference, such as instrumental variable (IV) regression and proximal causal learning (PCL), are CMR problems. Most CMR estimators use a two-stage approach, where the first-stage estimation is directly plugged into the second stage to estimate the function of interest. However, naively plugging in the first-stage estimator can cause heavy bias in the second stage. This is particularly the case for recently proposed CMR estimators that use deep neural network (DNN) estimators for both stages, where regularisation and overfitting bias is present. We propose DML-CMR, a two-stage CMR estimator that provides an unbiased estimate with fast convergence rate guarantees. We derive a novel learning objective to reduce bias and develop the DML-CMR algorithm following the double/debiased machine learning (DML) framework. We show that our DML-CMR estimator can achieve the minimax optimal convergence rate of $O(N^{-1/2})$ under parameterisation and mild regularity conditions, where $N$ is the sample size. We apply DML-CMR to a range of problems using DNN estimators, including IV regression and proximal causal learning on real-world datasets, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance against existing CMR estimators and algorithms tailored to those problems.
Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Optimal Treatment Regimes and Causal Decomposition with Individualized Interventions
Authors: Soojin Park, Suyeon Kang, Chioun Lee
Date: 2025-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Benchmarking, Sensitivity

Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing optimal treatment regimes (OTRs). Since the newly defined individualized effects rely on the no omitted confounding assumption, developing sensitivity analyses to account for potential omitted confounding is essential. Moreover, OTRs and individualized effects are primarily based on binary risk factors, and no formal approach currently exists to benchmark the strength of omitted confounding using observed covariates for binary risk factors. To address this gap, we extend a simulation-based sensitivity analysis that simulates unmeasured confounders, addressing two sources of bias emerging from deriving OTRs and estimating individualized effects. Additionally, we propose a formal bounding strategy that benchmarks the strength of omitted confounding for binary risk factors. Using the High School Longitudinal Study 2009 (HSLS:09), we demonstrate this sensitivity analysis and benchmarking method.
Causal Decomposition Analysis with Synergistic Interventions: A Triply-Robust Machine Learning Approach to Addressing Multiple Dimensions of Social Disparities
Authors: Soojin Park, Su Yeon Kim, Xinyao Zheng, Chioun Lee
Date: 2025-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Math

Educational disparities are rooted in and perpetuate social inequalities across multiple dimensions such as race, socioeconomic status, and geography. To reduce disparities, most intervention strategies focus on a single domain and frequently evaluate their effectiveness by using causal decomposition analysis. However, a growing body of research suggests that single-domain interventions may be insufficient for individuals marginalized on multiple fronts. While interventions across multiple domains are increasingly proposed, there is limited guidance on appropriate methods for evaluating their effectiveness. To address this gap, we develop an extended causal decomposition analysis that simultaneously targets multiple causally ordered intervening factors, allowing for the assessment of their synergistic effects. These scenarios often involve challenges related to model misspecification due to complex interactions among group categories, intervening factors, and their confounders with the outcome. To mitigate these challenges, we introduce a triply robust estimator that leverages machine learning techniques to address potential model misspecification. We apply our method to a cohort of students from the High School Longitudinal Study, focusing on math achievement disparities between Black, Hispanic, and White high schoolers. Specifically, we examine how two sequential interventions - equalizing the proportion of students who attend high-performing schools and equalizing enrollment in Algebra I by 9th grade across racial groups - may reduce these disparities.
Tight Generalization Error Bounds for Stochastic Gradient Descent in Non-convex Learning
Authors: Wenjun Xiong, Juan Ding, Xinlei Zuo, Qizhai Li
Date: 2025-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Generalization Bounds

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is fundamental for training deep neural networks, especially in non-convex settings. Understanding SGD's generalization properties is crucial for ensuring robust model performance on unseen data. In this paper, we analyze the generalization error bounds of SGD for non-convex learning by introducing the Type II perturbed SGD (T2pm-SGD), which accommodates both sub-Gaussian and bounded loss functions. The generalization error bound is decomposed into two components: the trajectory term and the flatness term. Our analysis improves the trajectory term to $O(n^{-1})$, significantly enhancing the previous $O((nb)^{-1/2})$ bound for bounded losses, where n is the number of training samples and b is the batch size. By selecting an optimal variance for the perturbation noise, the overall bound is further refined to $O(n^{-2/3})$. For sub-Gaussian loss functions, a tighter trajectory term is also achieved. In both cases, the flatness term remains stable across iterations and is smaller than those reported in previous literature, which increase with iterations. This stability, ensured by T2pm-SGD, leads to tighter generalization error bounds for both loss function types. Our theoretical results are validated through extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, including MNIST and CIFAR-10, demonstrating the effectiveness of T2pm-SGD in establishing tighter generalization bounds.
PCA-Guided Quantile Sampling: Preserving Data Structure in Large-Scale Subsampling
Authors: Foo Hui-Mean, Yuan-Chin Ivan Chang
Date: 2025-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Data Summarization

We introduce Principal Component Analysis guided Quantile Sampling (PCA QS), a novel sampling framework designed to preserve both the statistical and geometric structure of large scale datasets. Unlike conventional PCA, which reduces dimensionality at the cost of interpretability, PCA QS retains the original feature space while using leading principal components solely to guide a quantile based stratification scheme. This principled design ensures that sampling remains representative without distorting the underlying data semantics. We establish rigorous theoretical guarantees, deriving convergence rates for empirical quantiles, Kullback Leibler divergence, and Wasserstein distance, thus quantifying the distributional fidelity of PCA QS samples. Practical guidelines for selecting the number of principal components, quantile bins, and sampling rates are provided based on these results. Extensive empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that PCA QS consistently outperforms simple random sampling, yielding better structure preservation and improved downstream model performance. Together, these contributions position PCA QS as a scalable, interpretable, and theoretically grounded solution for efficient data summarization in modern machine learning workflows.
GRASP: Grouped Regression with Adaptive Shrinkage Priors
Authors: Shu Yu Tew, Daniel F. Schmidt, Mario Boley
Date: 2025-06-22 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

We introduce GRASP, a simple Bayesian framework for regression with grouped predictors, built on the normal beta prime (NBP) prior. The NBP prior is an adaptive generalization of the horseshoe prior with tunable hyperparameters that control tail behavior, enabling a flexible range of sparsity, from strong shrinkage to ridge-like regularization. Unlike prior work that introduced the group inverse-gamma gamma (GIGG) prior by decomposing the NBP prior into structured hierarchies, we show that directly controlling the tails is sufficient without requiring complex hierarchical constructions. Extending the non-tail adaptive grouped half-Cauchy hierarchy of Xu et al., GRASP assigns the NBP prior to both local and group shrinkage parameters allowing adaptive sparsity within and across groups. A key contribution of this work is a novel framework to explicitly quantify correlations among shrinkage parameters within a group, providing deeper insights into grouped shrinkage behavior. We also introduce an efficient Metropolis-Hastings sampler for hyperparameter estimation. Empirical results on simulated and real-world data demonstrate the robustness and versatility of GRASP across grouped regression problems with varying sparsity and signal-to-noise ratios.
Choice of Scoring Rules for Indirect Elicitation of Properties with Parametric Assumptions
Authors: Lingfang Hu, Ian A. Kash
Date: 2025-06-22 00:00:00

People are commonly interested in predicting a statistical property of a random event such as mean and variance. Proper scoring rules assess the quality of predictions and require that the expected score gets uniquely maximized at the precise prediction, in which case we call the score directly elicits the property. Previous research work has widely studied the existence and the characterization of proper scoring rules for different properties, but little literature discusses the choice of proper scoring rules for applications at hand. In this paper, we explore a novel task, the indirect elicitation of properties with parametric assumptions, where the target property is a function of several directly-elicitable sub-properties and the total score is a weighted sum of proper scoring rules for each sub-property. Because of the restriction to a parametric model class, different settings for the weights lead to different constrained optimal solutions. Our goal is to figure out how the choice of weights affects the estimation of the target property and which choice is the best. We start it with simulation studies and observe an interesting pattern: in most cases, the optimal estimation of the target property changes monotonically with the increase of each weight, and the best configuration of weights is often to set some weights as zero. To understand how it happens, we first establish the elementary theoretical framework and then provide deeper sufficient conditions for the case of two sub-properties and of more sub-properties respectively. The theory on 2-D cases perfectly interprets the experimental results. In higher-dimensional situations, we especially study the linear cases and suggest that more complex settings can be understood with locally mapping into linear situations or using linear approximations when the true values of sub-properties are close enough to the parametric space.
Bayesian Joint Model of Multi-Sensor and Failure Event Data for Multi-Mode Failure Prediction
Authors: Sina Aghaee Dabaghan Fard, Minhee Kim, Akash Deep, Jaesung Lee
Date: 2025-06-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction, Time Series, Uncertainty Quantification

Modern industrial systems are often subject to multiple failure modes, and their conditions are monitored by multiple sensors, generating multiple time-series signals. Additionally, time-to-failure data are commonly available. Accurately predicting a system's remaining useful life (RUL) requires effectively leveraging multi-sensor time-series data alongside multi-mode failure event data. In most existing models, failure modes and RUL prediction are performed independently, ignoring the inherent relationship between these two tasks. Some models integrate multiple failure modes and event prediction using black-box machine learning approaches, which lack statistical rigor and cannot characterize the inherent uncertainty in the model and data. This paper introduces a unified approach to jointly model the multi-sensor time-series data and failure time concerning multiple failure modes. This proposed model integrate a Cox proportional hazards model, a Convolved Multi-output Gaussian Process, and multinomial failure mode distributions in a hierarchical Bayesian framework with corresponding priors, enabling accurate prediction with robust uncertainty quantification. Posterior distributions are effectively obtained by Variational Bayes, and prediction is performed with Monte Carlo sampling. The advantages of the proposed model is validated through extensive numerical and case studies with jet-engine dataset.
TRUST: Transparent, Robust and Ultra-Sparse Trees
Authors: Albert Dorador
Date: 2025-06-18 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

Piecewise-constant regression trees remain popular for their interpretability, yet often lag behind black-box models like Random Forest in predictive accuracy. In this work, we introduce TRUST (Transparent, Robust, and Ultra-Sparse Trees), a novel regression tree model that combines the accuracy of Random Forests with the interpretability of shallow decision trees and sparse linear models. TRUST further enhances transparency by leveraging Large Language Models to generate tailored, user-friendly explanations. Extensive validation on synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets demonstrates that TRUST consistently outperforms other interpretable models -- including CART, Lasso, and Node Harvest -- in predictive accuracy, while matching the accuracy of Random Forest and offering substantial gains in both accuracy and interpretability over M5', a well-established model that is conceptually related.
Effect Decomposition of Functional-Output Computer Experiments via Orthogonal Additive Gaussian Processes
Authors: Yu Tan, Yongxiang Li, Xiaowu Dai, Kwok-Leung Tsui
Date: 2025-06-15 00:00:00
Tasks: Gaussian Processes, Sensitivity

Functional ANOVA (FANOVA) is a widely used variance-based sensitivity analysis tool. However, studies on functional-output FANOVA remain relatively scarce, especially for black-box computer experiments, which often involve complex and nonlinear functional-output relationships with unknown data distribution. Conventional approaches often rely on predefined basis functions or parametric structures that lack the flexibility to capture complex nonlinear relationships. Additionally, strong assumptions about the underlying data distributions further limit their ability to achieve a data-driven orthogonal effect decomposition. To address these challenges, this study proposes a functional-output orthogonal additive Gaussian process (FOAGP) to efficiently perform the data-driven orthogonal effect decomposition. By enforcing a conditional orthogonality constraint on the separable prior process, the proposed functional-output orthogonal additive kernel enables data-driven orthogonality without requiring prior distributional assumptions. The FOAGP framework also provides analytical formulations for local Sobol' indices and expected conditional variance sensitivity indices, enabling comprehensive sensitivity analysis by capturing both global and local effect significance. Validation through two simulation studies and a real case study on fuselage shape control confirms the model's effectiveness in orthogonal effect decomposition and variance decomposition, demonstrating its practical value in engineering applications.
A Transfer Learning Framework for Multilayer Networks via Model Averaging
Authors: Yongqin Qiu, Xinyu Zhang
Date: 2025-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Link Prediction, Privacy Preserving, Recommendation Systems, Transfer Learning

Link prediction in multilayer networks is a key challenge in applications such as recommendation systems and protein-protein interaction prediction. While many techniques have been developed, most rely on assumptions about shared structures and require access to raw auxiliary data, limiting their practicality. To address these issues, we propose a novel transfer learning framework for multilayer networks using a bi-level model averaging method. A $K$-fold cross-validation criterion based on edges is used to automatically weight inter-layer and intra-layer candidate models. This enables the transfer of information from auxiliary layers while mitigating model uncertainty, even without prior knowledge of shared structures. Theoretically, we prove the optimality and weight convergence of our method under mild conditions. Computationally, our framework is efficient and privacy-preserving, as it avoids raw data sharing and supports parallel processing across multiple servers. Simulations show our method outperforms others in predictive accuracy and robustness. We further demonstrate its practical value through two real-world recommendation system applications.
Bayesian Optimization with Inexact Acquisition: Is Random Grid Search Sufficient?
Authors: Hwanwoo Kim, Chong Liu, Yuxin Chen
Date: 2025-06-13 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Optimization, Thompson Sampling

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used iterative algorithm for optimizing black-box functions. Each iteration requires maximizing an acquisition function, such as the upper confidence bound (UCB) or a sample path from the Gaussian process (GP) posterior, as in Thompson sampling (TS). However, finding an exact solution to these maximization problems is often intractable and computationally expensive. Reflecting such realistic situations, in this paper, we delve into the effect of inexact maximizers of the acquisition functions. Defining a measure of inaccuracy in acquisition solutions, we establish cumulative regret bounds for both GP-UCB and GP-TS without requiring exact solutions of acquisition function maximization. Our results show that under appropriate conditions on accumulated inaccuracy, inexact BO algorithms can still achieve sublinear cumulative regret. Motivated by such findings, we provide both theoretical justification and numerical validation for random grid search as an effective and computationally efficient acquisition function solver.