pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Using Sentiment and Technical Analysis to Predict Bitcoin with Machine Learning
Authors: Arthur Emanuel de Oliveira Carosia
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00

Cryptocurrencies have gained significant attention in recent years due to their decentralized nature and potential for financial innovation. Thus, the ability to accurately predict its price has become a subject of great interest for investors, traders, and researchers. Some works in the literature show how Bitcoin's market sentiment correlates with its price fluctuations in the market. However, papers that consider the sentiment of the market associated with financial Technical Analysis indicators in order to predict Bitcoin's price are still scarce. In this paper, we present a novel approach for predicting Bitcoin price movements by combining the Fear & Greedy Index, a measure of market sentiment, Technical Analysis indicators, and the potential of Machine Learning algorithms. This work represents a preliminary study on the importance of sentiment metrics in cryptocurrency forecasting. Our initial experiments demonstrate promising results considering investment returns, surpassing the Buy & Hold baseline, and offering valuable insights about the combination of indicators of sentiment and market in a cryptocurrency prediction model.
Domain Adaptive Safety Filters via Deep Operator Learning
Authors: Lakshmideepakreddy Manda, Shaoru Chen, Mahyar Fazlyab
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Operator learning

Learning-based approaches for constructing Control Barrier Functions (CBFs) are increasingly being explored for safety-critical control systems. However, these methods typically require complete retraining when applied to unseen environments, limiting their adaptability. To address this, we propose a self-supervised deep operator learning framework that learns the mapping from environmental parameters to the corresponding CBF, rather than learning the CBF directly. Our approach leverages the residual of a parametric Partial Differential Equation (PDE), where the solution defines a parametric CBF approximating the maximal control invariant set. This framework accommodates complex safety constraints, higher relative degrees, and actuation limits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method through numerical experiments on navigation tasks involving dynamic obstacles.
Rethinking Distance Metrics for Counterfactual Explainability
Authors: Joshua Nathaniel Williams, Anurag Katakkar, Hoda Heidari, J. Zico Kolter
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual

Counterfactual explanations have been a popular method of post-hoc explainability for a variety of settings in Machine Learning. Such methods focus on explaining classifiers by generating new data points that are similar to a given reference, while receiving a more desirable prediction. In this work, we investigate a framing for counterfactual generation methods that considers counterfactuals not as independent draws from a region around the reference, but as jointly sampled with the reference from the underlying data distribution. Through this framing, we derive a distance metric, tailored for counterfactual similarity that can be applied to a broad range of settings. Through both quantitative and qualitative analyses of counterfactual generation methods, we show that this framing allows us to express more nuanced dependencies among the covariates.
CaTs and DAGs: Integrating Directed Acyclic Graphs with Transformers and Fully-Connected Neural Networks for Causally Constrained Predictions
Authors: Matthew J. Vowels, Mathieu Rochat, Sina Akbari
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), including fully-connected networks and transformers, are highly flexible and powerful function approximators, widely applied in fields like computer vision and natural language processing. However, their inability to inherently respect causal structures can limit their robustness, making them vulnerable to covariate shift and difficult to interpret/explain. This poses significant challenges for their reliability in real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce Causal Fully-Connected Neural Networks (CFCNs) and Causal Transformers (CaTs), two general model families designed to operate under predefined causal constraints, as specified by a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). These models retain the powerful function approximation abilities of traditional neural networks while adhering to the underlying structural constraints, improving robustness, reliability, and interpretability at inference time. This approach opens new avenues for deploying neural networks in more demanding, real-world scenarios where robustness and explainability is critical.
Spectral Representations for Accurate Causal Uncertainty Quantification with Gaussian Processes
Authors: Hugh Dance, Peter Orbanz, Arthur Gretton
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Optimisation, Decision Making, Gaussian Processes, Uncertainty Quantification

Accurate uncertainty quantification for causal effects is essential for robust decision making in complex systems, but remains challenging in non-parametric settings. One promising framework represents conditional distributions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and places Gaussian process priors on them to infer posteriors on causal effects, but requires restrictive nuclear dominant kernels and approximations that lead to unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we introduce a method, IMPspec, that addresses these limitations via a spectral representation of the Hilbert space. We show that posteriors in this model can be obtained explicitly, by extending a result in Hilbert space regression theory. We also learn the spectral representation to optimise posterior calibration. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in uncertainty quantification and causal Bayesian optimisation across simulations and a healthcare application.
Backdoored Retrievers for Prompt Injection Attacks on Retrieval Augmented Generation of Large Language Models
Authors: Cody Clop, Yannick Teglia
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Backdoor Attack, Information Retrieval, Misinformation, RAG, Retrieval, Retrieval-augmented Generation

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating coherent text but remain limited by the static nature of their training data. Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) addresses this issue by combining LLMs with up-to-date information retrieval, but also expand the attack surface of the system. This paper investigates prompt injection attacks on RAG, focusing on malicious objectives beyond misinformation, such as inserting harmful links, promoting unauthorized services, and initiating denial-of-service behaviors. We build upon existing corpus poisoning techniques and propose a novel backdoor attack aimed at the fine-tuning process of the dense retriever component. Our experiments reveal that corpus poisoning can achieve significant attack success rates through the injection of a small number of compromised documents into the retriever corpus. In contrast, backdoor attacks demonstrate even higher success rates but necessitate a more complex setup, as the victim must fine-tune the retriever using the attacker poisoned dataset.
Laplace Transform Based Low-Complexity Learning of Continuous Markov Semigroups
Authors: Vladimir R. Kostic, Karim Lounici, Hélène Halconruy, Timothée Devergne, Pietro Novelli, Massimiliano Pontil
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

Markov processes serve as a universal model for many real-world random processes. This paper presents a data-driven approach for learning these models through the spectral decomposition of the infinitesimal generator (IG) of the Markov semigroup. The unbounded nature of IGs complicates traditional methods such as vector-valued regression and Hilbert-Schmidt operator analysis. Existing techniques, including physics-informed kernel regression, are computationally expensive and limited in scope, with no recovery guarantees for transfer operator methods when the time-lag is small. We propose a novel method that leverages the IG's resolvent, characterized by the Laplace transform of transfer operators. This approach is robust to time-lag variations, ensuring accurate eigenvalue learning even for small time-lags. Our statistical analysis applies to a broader class of Markov processes than current methods while reducing computational complexity from quadratic to linear in the state dimension. Finally, we illustrate the behaviour of our method in two experiments.
Enhancing Cryptocurrency Market Forecasting: Advanced Machine Learning Techniques and Industrial Engineering Contributions
Authors: Jannatun Nayeem Pinky, Ramya Akula
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Articles, Prediction, Sentiment Analysis

Cryptocurrencies, as decentralized digital assets, have experienced rapid growth and adoption, with over 23,000 cryptocurrencies and a market capitalization nearing \$1.1 trillion (about \$3,400 per person in the US) as of 2023. This dynamic market presents significant opportunities and risks, highlighting the need for accurate price prediction models to manage volatility. This chapter comprehensively reviews machine learning (ML) techniques applied to cryptocurrency price prediction from 2014 to 2024. We explore various ML algorithms, including linear models, tree-based approaches, and advanced deep learning architectures such as transformers and large language models. Additionally, we examine the role of sentiment analysis in capturing market sentiment from textual data like social media posts and news articles to anticipate price fluctuations. With expertise in optimizing complex systems and processes, industrial engineers are pivotal in enhancing these models. They contribute by applying principles of process optimization, efficiency, and risk mitigation to improve computational performance and data management. This chapter highlights the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency price prediction, the integration of emerging technologies, and the significant role of industrial engineers in refining predictive models. By addressing current limitations and exploring future research directions, this chapter aims to advance the development of more accurate and robust prediction systems, supporting better-informed investment decisions and more stable market behavior.
Flow-Based Sampling for Entanglement Entropy and the Machine Learning of Defects
Authors: Andrea Bulgarelli, Elia Cellini, Karl Jansen, Stefan Kühn, Alessandro Nada, Shinichi Nakajima, Kim A. Nicoli, Marco Panero
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00

We introduce a novel technique to numerically calculate R\'enyi entanglement entropies in lattice quantum field theory using generative models. We describe how flow-based approaches can be combined with the replica trick using a custom neural-network architecture around a lattice defect connecting two replicas. Numerical tests for the $\phi^4$ scalar field theory in two and three dimensions demonstrate that our technique outperforms state-of-the-art Monte Carlo calculations, and exhibit a promising scaling with the defect size.
Electrocardiogram-Language Model for Few-Shot Question Answering with Meta Learning
Authors: Jialu Tang, Tong Xia, Yuan Lu, Cecilia Mascolo, Aaqib Saeed
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Diagnostic, Language Modeling, Language Modelling, Meta-Learning, Question Answering

Electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation requires specialized expertise, often involving synthesizing insights from ECG signals with complex clinical queries posed in natural language. The scarcity of labeled ECG data coupled with the diverse nature of clinical inquiries presents a significant challenge for developing robust and adaptable ECG diagnostic systems. This work introduces a novel multimodal meta-learning method for few-shot ECG question answering, addressing the challenge of limited labeled data while leveraging the rich knowledge encoded within large language models (LLMs). Our LLM-agnostic approach integrates a pre-trained ECG encoder with a frozen LLM (e.g., LLaMA and Gemma) via a trainable fusion module, enabling the language model to reason about ECG data and generate clinically meaningful answers. Extensive experiments demonstrate superior generalization to unseen diagnostic tasks compared to supervised baselines, achieving notable performance even with limited ECG leads. For instance, in a 5-way 5-shot setting, our method using LLaMA-3.1-8B achieves an accuracy of 84.6%, 77.3%, and 69.6% on single verify, choose and query question types, respectively. These results highlight the potential of our method to enhance clinical ECG interpretation by combining signal processing with the nuanced language understanding capabilities of LLMs, particularly in data-constrained scenarios.
A Bioinformatic Approach Validated Utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms to Identify Relevant Biomarkers and Crucial Pathways in Gallbladder Cancer
Authors: Rabea Khatun, Wahia Tasnim, Maksuda Akter, Md Manowarul Islam, Md. Ashraf Uddin, Md. Zulfiker Mahmud, Saurav Chandra Das
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: feature selection

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is the most frequent cause of disease among biliary tract neoplasms. Identifying the molecular mechanisms and biomarkers linked to GBC progression has been a significant challenge in scientific research. Few recent studies have explored the roles of biomarkers in GBC. Our study aimed to identify biomarkers in GBC using machine learning (ML) and bioinformatics techniques. We compared GBC tumor samples with normal samples to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from two microarray datasets (GSE100363, GSE139682) obtained from the NCBI GEO database. A total of 146 DEGs were found, with 39 up-regulated and 107 down-regulated genes. Functional enrichment analysis of these DEGs was performed using Gene Ontology (GO) terms and REACTOME pathways through DAVID. The protein-protein interaction network was constructed using the STRING database. To identify hub genes, we applied three ranking algorithms: Degree, MNC, and Closeness Centrality. The intersection of hub genes from these algorithms yielded 11 hub genes. Simultaneously, two feature selection methods (Pearson correlation and recursive feature elimination) were used to identify significant gene subsets. We then developed ML models using SVM and RF on the GSE100363 dataset, with validation on GSE139682, to determine the gene subset that best distinguishes GBC samples. The hub genes outperformed the other gene subsets. Finally, NTRK2, COL14A1, SCN4B, ATP1A2, SLC17A7, SLIT3, COL7A1, CLDN4, CLEC3B, ADCYAP1R1, and MFAP4 were identified as crucial genes, with SLIT3, COL7A1, and CLDN4 being strongly linked to GBC development and prediction.
Predicting time-varying flux and balance in metabolic systems using structured neural-ODE processes
Authors: Santanu Rathod, Pietro Lio, Xiao Zhang
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Decoder

We develop a novel data-driven framework as an alternative to dynamic flux balance analysis, bypassing the demand for deep domain knowledge and manual efforts to formulate the optimization problem. The proposed framework is end-to-end, which trains a structured neural ODE process (SNODEP) model to estimate flux and balance samples using gene-expression time-series data. SNODEP is designed to circumvent the limitations of the standard neural ODE process model, including restricting the latent and decoder sampling distributions to be normal and lacking structure between context points for calculating the latent, thus more suitable for modeling the underlying dynamics of a metabolic system. Through comprehensive experiments ($156$ in total), we demonstrate that SNODEP not only predicts the unseen time points of real-world gene-expression data and the flux and balance estimates well but can even generalize to more challenging unseen knockout configurations and irregular data sampling scenarios, all essential for metabolic pathway analysis. We hope our work can serve as a catalyst for building more scalable and powerful models for genome-scale metabolic analysis. Our code is available at: \url{https://github.com/TrustMLRG/SNODEP}.
Asymptotic non-linear shrinkage and eigenvector overlap for weighted sample covariance
Authors: Benoit Oriol
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00

We compute asymptotic non-linear shrinkage formulas for covariance and precision matrix estimators for weighted sample covariances, and the joint sample-population eigenvector overlap distribution, in the spirit of Ledoit and P\'ech\'e. We detail explicitly the formulas for exponentially-weighted sample covariances. We propose an algorithm to numerically compute those formulas. Experimentally, we show the performance of the asymptotic non-linear shrinkage estimators. Finally, we test the robustness of the theory to a heavy-tailed distributions.
WeSpeR: Population spectrum retrieval and spectral density estimation of weighted sample covariance
Authors: Benoit Oriol
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Density Estimation, Retrieval

The spectrum of the weighted sample covariance shows a asymptotic non random behavior when the dimension grows with the number of samples. In this setting, we prove that the asymptotic spectral distribution $F$ of the weighted sample covariance has a continuous density on $\mathbb{R}^*$. We address then the practical problem of numerically finding this density. We propose a procedure to compute it, to determine the support of $F$ and define an efficient grid on it. We use this procedure to design the $\textit{WeSpeR}$ algorithm, which estimates the spectral density and retrieves the true spectral covariance spectrum. Empirical tests confirm the good properties of the $\textit{WeSpeR}$ algorithm.
SNAC: Multi-Scale Neural Audio Codec
Authors: Hubert Siuzdak, Florian Grötschla, Luca A. Lanzendörfer
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Audio Compression, Audio Generation, Language Modeling, Language Modelling, Quantization

Neural audio codecs have recently gained popularity because they can represent audio signals with high fidelity at very low bitrates, making it feasible to use language modeling approaches for audio generation and understanding. Residual Vector Quantization (RVQ) has become the standard technique for neural audio compression using a cascade of VQ codebooks. This paper proposes the Multi-Scale Neural Audio Codec, a simple extension of RVQ where the quantizers can operate at different temporal resolutions. By applying a hierarchy of quantizers at variable frame rates, the codec adapts to the audio structure across multiple timescales. This leads to more efficient compression, as demonstrated by extensive objective and subjective evaluations. The code and model weights are open-sourced at https://github.com/hubertsiuzdak/snac.
Personalizing Low-Rank Bayesian Neural Networks Via Federated Learning
Authors: Boning Zhang, Dongzhu Liu, Osvaldo Simeone, Guanchu Wang, Dimitrios Pezaros, Guangxu Zhu
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Federated Learning, Personalized Federated Learning, Uncertainty Quantification

To support real-world decision-making, it is crucial for models to be well-calibrated, i.e., to assign reliable confidence estimates to their predictions. Uncertainty quantification is particularly important in personalized federated learning (PFL), as participating clients typically have small local datasets, making it difficult to unambiguously determine optimal model parameters. Bayesian PFL (BPFL) methods can potentially enhance calibration, but they often come with considerable computational and memory requirements due to the need to track the variances of all the individual model parameters. Furthermore, different clients may exhibit heterogeneous uncertainty levels owing to varying local dataset sizes and distributions. To address these challenges, we propose LR-BPFL, a novel BPFL method that learns a global deterministic model along with personalized low-rank Bayesian corrections. To tailor the local model to each client's inherent uncertainty level, LR-BPFL incorporates an adaptive rank selection mechanism. We evaluate LR-BPFL across a variety of datasets, demonstrating its advantages in terms of calibration, accuracy, as well as computational and memory requirements.
Unscrambling disease progression at scale: fast inference of event permutations with optimal transport
Authors: Peter A. Wijeratne, Daniel C. Alexander
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00

Disease progression models infer group-level temporal trajectories of change in patients' features as a chronic degenerative condition plays out. They provide unique insight into disease biology and staging systems with individual-level clinical utility. Discrete models consider disease progression as a latent permutation of events, where each event corresponds to a feature becoming measurably abnormal. However, permutation inference using traditional maximum likelihood approaches becomes prohibitive due to combinatoric explosion, severely limiting model dimensionality and utility. Here we leverage ideas from optimal transport to model disease progression as a latent permutation matrix of events belonging to the Birkhoff polytope, facilitating fast inference via optimisation of the variational lower bound. This enables a factor of 1000 times faster inference than the current state of the art and, correspondingly, supports models with several orders of magnitude more features than the current state of the art can consider. Experiments demonstrate the increase in speed, accuracy and robustness to noise in simulation. Further experiments with real-world imaging data from two separate datasets, one from Alzheimer's disease patients, the other age-related macular degeneration, showcase, for the first time, pixel-level disease progression events in the brain and eye, respectively. Our method is low compute, interpretable and applicable to any progressive condition and data modality, giving it broad potential clinical utility.
Investigating the Capabilities of Deep Learning for Processing and Interpreting One-Shot Multi-offset GPR Data: A Numerical Case Study for Lunar and Martian Environments
Authors: Iraklis Giannakis, Craig Warren, Antonios Giannopoulos, Georgios Leontidis, Yan Su, Feng Zhou, Javier Martin-Torres, Nectaria Diamanti
Date: 2024-10-18 00:00:00
Tasks: GPR

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is a mature geophysical method that has gained increasing popularity in planetary science over the past decade. GPR has been utilised both for Lunar and Martian missions providing pivotal information regarding the near surface geology of Terrestrial planets. Within that context, numerous processing pipelines have been suggested to address the unique challenges present in planetary setups. These processing pipelines often require manual tuning resulting to ambiguous outputs open to non-unique interpretations. These pitfalls combined with the large number of planetary GPR data (kilometers in magnitude), highlight the necessity for automatic, objective and advanced processing and interpretation schemes. The current paper investigates the potential of deep learning for interpreting and processing GPR data. The one-shot multi-offset configuration is investigated via a coherent numerical case study, showcasing the potential of deep learning for A) reconstructing the dielectric distribution of the the near surface of Terrestrial planets, and B) filling missing or bad-quality traces. Special care was taken for the numerical data to be both realistic and challenging. Moreover, the generated synthetic data are properly labelled and made publicly available for training future data-driven pipelines and contributing towards developing pre-trained foundation models for GPR.