pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
LLM4FTS: Enhancing Large Language Models for Financial Time Series Prediction
Authors: Zian Liu, Renjun Jia
Date: 2025-05-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Temporal Sequences, Time Series, Time Series Prediction

Predicting financial time series presents significant challenges due to inherent low signal-to-noise ratios and intricate temporal patterns. Traditional machine learning models exhibit limitations in this forecasting task constrained by their restricted model capacity. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs), with their greatly expanded parameter spaces, demonstrate promising potential for modeling complex dependencies in temporal sequences. However, existing LLM-based approaches typically focus on fixed-length patch analysis due to the Transformer architecture, ignoring market data's multi-scale pattern characteristics. In this study, we propose $LLM4FTS$, a novel framework that enhances LLM capabilities for temporal sequence modeling through learnable patch segmentation and dynamic wavelet convolution modules. Specifically,we first employ K-means++ clustering based on DTW distance to identify scale-invariant patterns in market data. Building upon pattern recognition results, we introduce adaptive patch segmentation that partitions temporal sequences while preserving maximal pattern integrity. To accommodate time-varying frequency characteristics, we devise a dynamic wavelet convolution module that emulates discrete wavelet transformation with enhanced flexibility in capturing time-frequency features. These three modules work together to improve large language model's ability to handle scale-invariant patterns in financial time series. Extensive experiments on real-world financial datasets substantiate the framework's efficacy, demonstrating superior performance in capturing complex market patterns and achieving state-of-the-art results in stock return prediction. The successful deployment in practical trading systems confirms its real-world applicability, representing a significant advancement in LLM applications for financial forecasting.
Connecting Thompson Sampling and UCB: Towards More Efficient Trade-offs Between Privacy and Regret
Authors: Bingshan Hu, Zhiming Huang, Tianyue H. Zhang, Mathias Lécuyer, Nidhi Hegde
Date: 2025-05-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Thompson Sampling

We address differentially private stochastic bandit problems from the angles of exploring the deep connections among Thompson Sampling with Gaussian priors, Gaussian mechanisms, and Gaussian differential privacy (GDP). We propose DP-TS-UCB, a novel parametrized private bandit algorithm that enables to trade off privacy and regret. DP-TS-UCB satisfies $ \tilde{O} \left(T^{0.25(1-\alpha)}\right)$-GDP and enjoys an $O \left(K\ln^{\alpha+1}(T)/\Delta \right)$ regret bound, where $\alpha \in [0,1]$ controls the trade-off between privacy and regret. Theoretically, our DP-TS-UCB relies on anti-concentration bounds of Gaussian distributions and links exploration mechanisms in Thompson Sampling-based algorithms and Upper Confidence Bound-based algorithms, which may be of independent interest.
Learning simple heuristic rules for classifying materials based on chemical composition
Authors: Andrew Ma, Marin Soljačić
Date: 2025-05-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Inductive Bias

In the past decade, there has been a significant interest in the use of machine learning approaches in materials science research. Conventional deep learning approaches that rely on complex, nonlinear models have become increasingly important in computational materials science due to their high predictive accuracy. In contrast to these approaches, we have shown in a recent work that a remarkably simple learned heuristic rule -- based on the concept of topogivity -- can classify whether a material is topological using only its chemical composition. In this paper, we go beyond the topology classification scenario by also studying the use of machine learning to develop simple heuristic rules for classifying whether a material is a metal based on chemical composition. Moreover, we present a framework for incorporating chemistry-informed inductive bias based on the structure of the periodic table. For both the topology classification and the metallicity classification tasks, we empirically characterize the performance of simple heuristic rules fit with and without chemistry-informed inductive bias across a wide range of training set sizes. We find evidence that incorporating chemistry-informed inductive bias can reduce the amount of training data required to reach a given level of test accuracy.
Diffusion Stochastic Learning Over Adaptive Competing Networks
Authors: Yike Zhao, Haoyuan Cai, Ali H. Sayed
Date: 2025-04-28 00:00:00

This paper studies a stochastic dynamic game between two competing teams, each consisting of a network of collaborating agents. Unlike fully cooperative settings, where all agents share a common objective, each team in this game aims to minimize its own distinct objective. In the adversarial setting, their objectives could be conflicting as in zero-sum games. Throughout the competition, agents share strategic information within their own team while simultaneously inferring and adapting to the strategies of the opposing team. We propose diffusion learning algorithms to address two important classes of this network game: i) a zero-sum game characterized by weak cross-team subgraph interactions, and ii) a general non-zero-sum game exhibiting strong cross-team subgraph interactions. We analyze the stability performance of the proposed algorithms under reasonable assumptions and illustrate the theoretical results through experiments on Cournot team competition and decentralized GAN training.
TabKAN: Advancing Tabular Data Analysis using Kolmogorov-Arnold Network
Authors: Ali Eslamian, Alireza Afzal Aghaei, Qiang Cheng
Date: 2025-04-09 00:00:00
Tasks: Benchmarking, Deep Learning, Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks, Missing Values, Multi-class Classification, Transfer Learning

Tabular data analysis presents unique challenges due to its heterogeneous feature types, missing values, and complex interactions. While traditional machine learning methods, such as gradient boosting, often outperform deep learning approaches, recent advancements in neural architectures offer promising alternatives. This paper introduces TabKAN, a novel framework that advances tabular data modeling using Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs). Unlike conventional deep learning models, KANs leverge learnable activation functions on edges, which improve both interpretability and training efficiency. Our contributions include: (1) the introduction of modular KAN-based architectures for tabular data analysis, (2) the development of a transfer learning framework for KAN models that supports knowledge transfer between domains, (3) the development of model-specific interpretability for tabular data learning, which reduces dependence on post hoc and model-agnostic analysis, and (4) comprehensive evaluation of vanilla supervised learning across binary and multi-class classification tasks. Through extensive benchmarking on diverse public datasets, TabKAN demonstrates superior performance in supervised learning while significantly outperforming classical and Transformer-based models in transfer learning scenarios. Our findings highlight the advantage of KAN-based architectures in transferring knowledge across domains and narrowing the gap between traditional machine learning and deep learning for structured data.
Enabling Local Neural Operators to perform Equation-Free System-Level Analysis
Authors: Gianluca Fabiani, Hannes Vandecasteele, Somdatta Goswami, Constantinos Siettos, Ioannis G. Kevrekidis
Date: 2025-05-05 00:00:00

Neural Operators (NOs) provide a powerful framework for computations involving physical laws that can be modelled by (integro-) partial differential equations (PDEs), directly learning maps between infinite-dimensional function spaces that bypass both the explicit equation identification and their subsequent numerical solving. Still, NOs have so far primarily been employed to explore the dynamical behavior as surrogates of brute-force temporal simulations/predictions. Their potential for systematic rigorous numerical system-level tasks, such as fixed-point, stability, and bifurcation analysis - crucial for predicting irreversible transitions in real-world phenomena - remains largely unexplored. Toward this aim, inspired by the Equation-Free multiscale framework, we propose and implement a framework that integrates (local) NOs with advanced iterative numerical methods in the Krylov subspace, so as to perform efficient system-level stability and bifurcation analysis of large-scale dynamical systems. Beyond fixed point, stability, and bifurcation analysis enabled by local in time NOs, we also demonstrate the usefulness of local in space as well as in space-time ("patch") NOs in accelerating the computer-aided analysis of spatiotemporal dynamics. We illustrate our framework via three nonlinear PDE benchmarks: the 1D Allen-Cahn equation, which undergoes multiple concatenated pitchfork bifurcations; the Liouville-Bratu-Gelfand PDE, which features a saddle-node tipping point; and the FitzHugh-Nagumo (FHN) model, consisting of two coupled PDEs that exhibit both Hopf and saddle-node bifurcations.
Advancing Multi-Agent Systems Through Model Context Protocol: Architecture, Implementation, and Applications
Authors: Naveen Krishnan
Date: 2025-04-26 00:00:00
Tasks: AI Agent, Management

Multi-agent systems represent a significant advancement in artificial intelligence, enabling complex problem-solving through coordinated specialized agents. However, these systems face fundamental challenges in context management, coordination efficiency, and scalable operation. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for advancing multi-agent systems through Model Context Protocol (MCP), addressing these challenges through standardized context sharing and coordination mechanisms. We extend previous work on AI agent architectures by developing a unified theoretical foundation, advanced context management techniques, and scalable coordination patterns. Through detailed implementation case studies across enterprise knowledge management, collaborative research, and distributed problem-solving domains, we demonstrate significant performance improvements compared to traditional approaches. Our evaluation methodology provides a systematic assessment framework with benchmark tasks and datasets specifically designed for multi-agent systems. We identify current limitations, emerging research opportunities, and potential transformative applications across industries. This work contributes to the evolution of more capable, collaborative, and context-aware artificial intelligence systems that can effectively address complex real-world challenges.
Collaborating Action by Action: A Multi-agent LLM Framework for Embodied Reasoning
Authors: Isadora White, Kolby Nottingham, Ayush Maniar, Max Robinson, Hansen Lillemark, Mehul Maheshwari, Lianhui Qin, Prithviraj Ammanabrolu
Date: 2025-04-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Imitation Learning, Minecraft

Collaboration is ubiquitous and essential in day-to-day life -- from exchanging ideas, to delegating tasks, to generating plans together. This work studies how LLMs can adaptively collaborate to perform complex embodied reasoning tasks. To this end we introduce MINDcraft, an easily extensible platform built to enable LLM agents to control characters in the open-world game of Minecraft; and MineCollab, a benchmark to test the different dimensions of embodied and collaborative reasoning. An experimental study finds that the primary bottleneck in collaborating effectively for current state-of-the-art agents is efficient natural language communication, with agent performance dropping as much as 15% when they are required to communicate detailed task completion plans. We conclude that existing LLM agents are ill-optimized for multi-agent collaboration, especially in embodied scenarios, and highlight the need to employ methods beyond in-context and imitation learning. Our website can be found here: https://mindcraft-minecollab.github.io/
Entropy-Guided Sampling of Flat Modes in Discrete Spaces
Authors: Pinaki Mohanty, Riddhiman Bhattacharya, Ruqi Zhang
Date: 2025-05-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Combinatorial Optimization

Sampling from flat modes in discrete spaces is a crucial yet underexplored problem. Flat modes represent robust solutions and have broad applications in combinatorial optimization and discrete generative modeling. However, existing sampling algorithms often overlook the mode volume and struggle to capture flat modes effectively. To address this limitation, we propose \emph{Entropic Discrete Langevin Proposal} (EDLP), which incorporates local entropy into the sampling process through a continuous auxiliary variable under a joint distribution. The local entropy term guides the discrete sampler toward flat modes with a small overhead. We provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for EDLP in locally log-concave discrete distributions. Empirically, our method consistently outperforms traditional approaches across tasks that require sampling from flat basins, including Bernoulli distribution, restricted Boltzmann machines, combinatorial optimization, and binary neural networks.
Assessing the Potential of Generative Agents in Crowdsourced Fact-Checking
Authors: Luigia Costabile, Gian Marco Orlando, Valerio La Gatta, Vincenzo Moscato
Date: 2025-04-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Fact Checking, Informativeness, Misinformation

The growing spread of online misinformation has created an urgent need for scalable, reliable fact-checking solutions. Crowdsourced fact-checking - where non-experts evaluate claim veracity - offers a cost-effective alternative to expert verification, despite concerns about variability in quality and bias. Encouraged by promising results in certain contexts, major platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and Instagram have begun shifting from centralized moderation to decentralized, crowd-based approaches. In parallel, advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong performance across core fact-checking tasks, including claim detection and evidence evaluation. However, their potential role in crowdsourced workflows remains unexplored. This paper investigates whether LLM-powered generative agents - autonomous entities that emulate human behavior and decision-making - can meaningfully contribute to fact-checking tasks traditionally reserved for human crowds. Using the protocol of La Barbera et al. (2024), we simulate crowds of generative agents with diverse demographic and ideological profiles. Agents retrieve evidence, assess claims along multiple quality dimensions, and issue final veracity judgments. Our results show that agent crowds outperform human crowds in truthfulness classification, exhibit higher internal consistency, and show reduced susceptibility to social and cognitive biases. Compared to humans, agents rely more systematically on informative criteria such as Accuracy, Precision, and Informativeness, suggesting a more structured decision-making process. Overall, our findings highlight the potential of generative agents as scalable, consistent, and less biased contributors to crowd-based fact-checking systems.
Epistemic Wrapping for Uncertainty Quantification
Authors: Maryam Sultana, Neil Yorke-Smith, Kaizheng Wang, Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal, Muhammad Mubashar, Fabio Cuzzolin
Date: 2025-05-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty estimation in classification. Our approach uses Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) as a baseline and transforms their outputs into belief function posteriors, effectively capturing epistemic uncertainty and offering an efficient and general methodology for uncertainty quantification. Comprehensive experiments employing a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) baseline and an Interval Neural Network for inference on the MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets demonstrate that our Epistemic Wrapper significantly enhances generalisation and uncertainty quantification.
MARFT: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Fine-Tuning
Authors: Junwei Liao, Muning Wen, Jun Wang, Weinan Zhang
Date: 2025-04-21 00:00:00

LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in addressing complex, agentic tasks, from generating high-quality presentation slides to even conducting sophisticated scientific research. Meanwhile, RL has been widely recognized for its effectiveness in enhancing agent intelligence, but limited research has investigated the fine-tuning of LaMAS using foundational RL techniques. Moreover, the direct application of MARL methods to LaMAS introduces significant challenges, stemming from the unique characteristics and mechanisms inherent to LaMAS. To address these challenges, this article presents a comprehensive study of LLM-based MARL and proposes a novel paradigm termed Multi-Agent Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (MARFT). We introduce a brand-new POMDP called Flex-POMDP, which aligns with the LaMAS optimization in real-world applications and a universal algorithmic framework tailored specifically for LaMAS, outlining the conceptual foundations, key distinctions, and practical implementation strategies. We review the evolution from RL to RFT, setting the stage for a parallel analysis in the multi-agent domain. In the context of LaMAS, we elucidate critical differences between MARL and MARFT. These differences motivate a transition toward a LaMAS-oriented formulation of RFT. Central to this work is a robust and scalable MARFT framework. We detail the core algorithm and provide a complete, open-source implementation to facilitate adoption and further research. The latter sections of the paper explore real-world application perspectives and opening challenges in MARFT. By bridging theoretical underpinnings with practical methodologies, this work serves as a roadmap for researchers seeking to advance MARFT toward resilient and adaptive solutions in agentic systems. Our implementation of the proposed framework is publicly available at: https://github.com/jwliao-ai/MARFT.
Bayesian Federated Cause-of-Death Classification and Quantification Under Distribution Shift
Authors: Yu Zhu, Zehang Richard Li
Date: 2025-05-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Federated Learning

In regions lacking medically certified causes of death, verbal autopsy (VA) is a critical and widely used tool to ascertain the cause of death through interviews with caregivers. Data collected by VAs are often analyzed using probabilistic algorithms. The performance of these algorithms often degrades due to distributional shift across populations. Most existing VA algorithms rely on centralized training, requiring full access to training data for joint modeling. This is often infeasible due to privacy and logistical constraints. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian Federated Learning (BFL) framework that avoids data sharing across multiple training sources. Our method enables reliable individual-level cause-of-death classification and population-level quantification of cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs), in a target domain with limited or no local labeled data. The proposed framework is modular, computationally efficient, and compatible with a wide range of existing VA algorithms as candidate models, facilitating flexible deployment in real-world mortality surveillance systems. We validate the performance of BFL through extensive experiments on two real-world VA datasets under varying levels of distribution shift. Our results show that BFL significantly outperforms the base models built on a single domain and achieves comparable or better performance compared to joint modeling.
PACE: A Framework for Learning and Control in Linear Incomplete-Information Differential Games
Authors: Seyed Yousef Soltanian, Wenlong Zhang
Date: 2025-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: parameter estimation

In this paper, we address the problem of a two-player linear quadratic differential game with incomplete information, a scenario commonly encountered in multi-agent control, human-robot interaction (HRI), and approximation methods for solving general-sum differential games. While solutions to such linear differential games are typically obtained through coupled Riccati equations, the complexity increases when agents have incomplete information, particularly when neither is aware of the other's cost function. To tackle this challenge, we propose a model-based Peer-Aware Cost Estimation (PACE) framework for learning the cost parameters of the other agent. In PACE, each agent treats its peer as a learning agent rather than a stationary optimal agent, models their learning dynamics, and leverages this dynamic to infer the cost function parameters of the other agent. This approach enables agents to infer each other's objective function in real time based solely on their previous state observations and dynamically adapt their control policies. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical guarantee for the convergence of parameter estimation and the stability of system states in PACE. Additionally, in our numerical studies, we demonstrate how modeling the learning dynamics of the other agent benefits PACE, compared to approaches that approximate the other agent as having complete information, particularly in terms of stability and convergence speed.
Hessian Riemannian Flow For Multi-Population Wardrop Equilibrium
Authors: Tigran Bakaryan, Christoph Aoun, Ricardo de Lima Ribeiro, Naira Hovakimyan, Diogo Gomes
Date: 2025-04-22 00:00:00
Tasks: Distributed Optimization, Management

In this paper, we address the problem of optimizing flows on generalized graphs that feature multiple entry points and multiple populations, each with varying cost structures. We tackle this problem by considering the multi-population Wardrop equilibrium, defined through variational inequalities. We rigorously analyze the existence and uniqueness of the Wardrop equilibrium. Furthermore, we introduce an efficient numerical method to find the solution. In particular, we reformulate the equilibrium problem as a distributed optimization problem over subgraphs and introduce a novel Hessian Riemannian flow method, a Riemannian-manifold-projected Hessian flow, to efficiently compute a solution. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through examples in urban traffic management, including routing for diverse vehicle types and strategies for minimizing emissions in congested environments.
Heterosynaptic Circuits Are Universal Gradient Machines
Authors: Liu Ziyin, Isaac Chuang, Tomaso Poggio
Date: 2025-05-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Meta-Learning

We propose a design principle for the learning circuits of the biological brain. The principle states that almost any dendritic weights updated via heterosynaptic plasticity can implement a generalized and efficient class of gradient-based meta-learning. The theory suggests that a broad class of biologically plausible learning algorithms, together with the standard machine learning optimizers, can be grounded in heterosynaptic circuit motifs. This principle suggests that the phenomenology of (anti-) Hebbian (HBP) and heterosynaptic plasticity (HSP) may emerge from the same underlying dynamics, thus providing a unifying explanation. It also suggests an alternative perspective of neuroplasticity, where HSP is promoted to the primary learning and memory mechanism, and HBP is an emergent byproduct. We present simulations that show that (a) HSP can explain the metaplasticity of neurons, (b) HSP can explain the flexibility of the biology circuits, and (c) gradient learning can arise quickly from simple evolutionary dynamics that do not compute any explicit gradient. While our primary focus is on biology, the principle also implies a new approach to designing AI training algorithms and physically learnable AI hardware. Conceptually, our result demonstrates that contrary to the common belief, gradient computation may be extremely easy and common in nature.