pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Echo State Networks for Spatio-Temporal Area-Level Data
Authors: Zhenhua Wang, Scott H. Holan, Christopher K. Wikle
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency, Decision Making

Spatio-temporal area-level datasets play a critical role in official statistics, providing valuable insights for policy-making and regional planning. Accurate modeling and forecasting of these datasets can be extremely useful for policymakers to develop informed strategies for future planning. Echo State Networks (ESNs) are efficient methods for capturing nonlinear temporal dynamics and generating forecasts. However, ESNs lack a direct mechanism to account for the neighborhood structure inherent in area-level data. Ignoring these spatial relationships can significantly compromise the accuracy and utility of forecasts. In this paper, we incorporate approximate graph spectral filters at the input stage of the ESN, thereby improving forecast accuracy while preserving the model's computational efficiency during training. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using Eurostat's tourism occupancy dataset and show how it can support more informed decision-making in policy and planning contexts.
High-Dimensional Differential Parameter Inference in Exponential Family using Time Score Matching
Authors: Daniel J. Williams, Leyang Wang, Qizhen Ying, Song Liu, Mladen Kolar
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00

This paper addresses differential inference in time-varying parametric probabilistic models, like graphical models with changing structures. Instead of estimating a high-dimensional model at each time point and estimating changes later, we directly learn the differential parameter, i.e., the time derivative of the parameter. The main idea is treating the time score function of an exponential family model as a linear model of the differential parameter for direct estimation. We use time score matching to estimate parameter derivatives. We prove the consistency of a regularized score matching objective and demonstrate the finite-sample normality of a debiased estimator in high-dimensional settings. Our methodology effectively infers differential structures in high-dimensional graphical models, verified on simulated and real-world datasets. The code reproducing our experiments can be found at: https://github.com/Leyangw/tsm.
Robust Gradient Descent for Phase Retrieval
Authors: Alex Buna, Patrick Rebeschini
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Retrieval

Recent progress in robust statistical learning has mainly tackled convex problems, like mean estimation or linear regression, with non-convex challenges receiving less attention. Phase retrieval exemplifies such a non-convex problem, requiring the recovery of a signal from only the magnitudes of its linear measurements, without phase (sign) information. While several non-convex methods, especially those involving the Wirtinger Flow algorithm, have been proposed for noiseless or mild noise settings, developing solutions for heavy-tailed noise and adversarial corruption remains an open challenge. In this paper, we investigate an approach that leverages robust gradient descent techniques to improve the Wirtinger Flow algorithm's ability to simultaneously cope with fourth moment bounded noise and adversarial contamination in both the inputs (covariates) and outputs (responses). We address two scenarios: known zero-mean noise and completely unknown noise. For the latter, we propose a preprocessing step that alters the problem into a new format that does not fit traditional phase retrieval approaches but can still be resolved with a tailored version of the algorithm for the zero-mean noise context.
Lambda-Skip Connections: the architectural component that prevents Rank Collapse
Authors: Federico Arangath Joseph, Jerome Sieber, Melanie N. Zeilinger, Carmen Amo Alonso
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: State Space Models

Rank collapse, a phenomenon where embedding vectors in sequence models rapidly converge to a uniform token or equilibrium state, has recently gained attention in the deep learning literature. This phenomenon leads to reduced expressivity and potential training instabilities due to vanishing gradients. Empirical evidence suggests that architectural components like skip connections, LayerNorm, and MultiLayer Perceptrons (MLPs) play critical roles in mitigating rank collapse. While this issue is well-documented for transformers, alternative sequence models, such as State Space Models (SSMs), which have recently gained prominence, have not been thoroughly examined for similar vulnerabilities. This paper extends the theory of rank collapse from transformers to SSMs using a unifying framework that captures both architectures. We study how a parametrized version of the classic skip connection component, which we call \emph{lambda-skip connections}, provides guarantees for rank collapse prevention. Through analytical results, we present a sufficient condition to guarantee prevention of rank collapse across all the aforementioned architectures. We also study the necessity of this condition via ablation studies and analytical examples. To our knowledge, this is the first study that provides a general guarantee to prevent rank collapse, and that investigates rank collapse in the context of SSMs, offering valuable understanding for both theoreticians and practitioners. Finally, we validate our findings with experiments demonstrating the crucial role of architectural components such as skip connections and gating mechanisms in preventing rank collapse.
Online waveform selection for cognitive radar
Authors: Thulasi Tholeti, Avinash Rangarajan, Sheetal Kalyani
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Q-Learning

Designing a cognitive radar system capable of adapting its parameters is challenging, particularly when tasked with tracking a ballistic missile throughout its entire flight. In this work, we focus on proposing adaptive algorithms that select waveform parameters in an online fashion. Our novelty lies in formulating the learning problem using domain knowledge derived from the characteristics of ballistic trajectories. We propose three reinforcement learning algorithms: bandwidth scaling, Q-learning, and Q-learning lookahead. These algorithms dynamically choose the bandwidth for each transmission based on received feedback. Through experiments on synthetically generated ballistic trajectories, we demonstrate that our proposed algorithms achieve the dual objectives of minimizing range error and maintaining continuous tracking without losing the target.
Regularized Robustly Reliable Learners and Instance Targeted Attacks
Authors: Avrim Blum, Donya Saless
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Data Poisoning

Instance-targeted data poisoning attacks, where an adversary corrupts a training set to induce errors on specific test points, have raised significant concerns. Balcan et al (2022) proposed an approach to addressing this challenge by defining a notion of robustly-reliable learners that provide per-instance guarantees of correctness under well-defined assumptions, even in the presence of data poisoning attacks. They then give a generic optimal (but computationally inefficient) robustly reliable learner as well as a computationally efficient algorithm for the case of linear separators over log-concave distributions. In this work, we address two challenges left open by Balcan et al (2022). The first is that the definition of robustly-reliable learners in Balcan et al (2022) becomes vacuous for highly-flexible hypothesis classes: if there are two classifiers h_0, h_1 \in H both with zero error on the training set such that h_0(x) \neq h_1(x), then a robustly-reliable learner must abstain on x. We address this problem by defining a modified notion of regularized robustly-reliable learners that allows for nontrivial statements in this case. The second is that the generic algorithm of Balcan et al (2022) requires re-running an ERM oracle (essentially, retraining the classifier) on each test point x, which is generally impractical even if ERM can be implemented efficiently. To tackle this problem, we show that at least in certain interesting cases we can design algorithms that can produce their outputs in time sublinear in training time, by using techniques from dynamic algorithm design.
Graph Classification Gaussian Processes via Hodgelet Spectral Features
Authors: Mathieu Alain, So Takao, Xiaowen Dong, Bastian Rieck, Emmanuel Noutahi
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, Gaussian Processes, Graph Classification

The problem of classifying graphs is ubiquitous in machine learning. While it is standard to apply graph neural networks or graph kernel methods, Gaussian processes can be employed by transforming spatial features from the graph domain into spectral features in the Euclidean domain, and using them as the input points of classical kernels. However, this approach currently only takes into account features on vertices, whereas some graph datasets also support features on edges. In this work, we present a Gaussian process-based classification algorithm that can leverage one or both vertex and edges features. Furthermore, we take advantage of the Hodge decomposition to better capture the intricate richness of vertex and edge features, which can be beneficial on diverse tasks.
Data-Driven Approaches for Modelling Target Behaviour
Authors: Isabel Schlangen, André Brandenburger, Mengwei Sun, James R. Hopgood
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Gaussian Processes, Object

The performance of tracking algorithms strongly depends on the chosen model assumptions regarding the target dynamics. If there is a strong mismatch between the chosen model and the true object motion, the track quality may be poor or the track is easily lost. Still, the true dynamics might not be known a priori or it is too complex to be expressed in a tractable mathematical formulation. This paper provides a comparative study between three different methods that use machine learning to describe the underlying object motion based on training data. The first method builds on Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting the object motion, the second learns the parameters of an Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter and the third uses a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network as a motion model. All methods are compared against an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) with an analytic motion model as a benchmark and their respective strengths are highlighted in one simulated and two real-world scenarios.
Transparent Networks for Multivariate Time Series
Authors: Minkyu Kim, Suan Lee, Jinho Kim
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Additive models, Time Series

Transparent models, which are machine learning models that produce inherently interpretable predictions, are receiving significant attention in high-stakes domains. However, despite much real-world data being collected as time series, there is a lack of studies on transparent time series models. To address this gap, we propose a novel transparent neural network model for time series called Generalized Additive Time Series Model (GATSM). GATSM consists of two parts: 1) independent feature networks to learn feature representations, and 2) a transparent temporal module to learn temporal patterns across different time steps using the feature representations. This structure allows GATSM to effectively capture temporal patterns and handle dynamic-length time series while preserving transparency. Empirical experiments show that GATSM significantly outperforms existing generalized additive models and achieves comparable performance to black-box time series models, such as recurrent neural networks and Transformer. In addition, we demonstrate that GATSM finds interesting patterns in time series. The source code is available at https://github.com/gim4855744/GATSM.
Non-convergence to global minimizers in data driven supervised deep learning: Adam and stochastic gradient descent optimization provably fail to converge to global minimizers in the training of deep neural networks with ReLU activation
Authors: Thang Do, Sonja Hannibal, Arnulf Jentzen
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00

Deep learning methods - consisting of a class of deep neural networks (DNNs) trained by a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization method - are nowadays key tools to solve data driven supervised learning problems. Despite the great success of SGD methods in the training of DNNs, it remains a fundamental open problem of research to explain the success and the limitations of such methods in rigorous theoretical terms. In particular, even in the standard setup of data driven supervised learning problems, it remained an open research problem to prove (or disprove) that SGD methods converge in the training of DNNs with the popular rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation function with high probability to global minimizers in the optimization landscape. In this work we answer this question negatively. Specifically, in this work we prove for a large class of SGD methods that the considered optimizer does with high probability not converge to global minimizers of the optimization problem. It turns out that the probability to not converge to a global minimizer converges at least exponentially quickly to one as the width of the first hidden layer of the ANN and the depth of the ANN, respectively, increase. The general non-convergence results of this work do not only apply to the plain vanilla standard SGD method but also to a large class of accelerated and adaptive SGD methods such as the momentum SGD, the Nesterov accelerated SGD, the Adagrad, the RMSProp, the Adam, the Adamax, the AMSGrad, and the Nadam optimizers.
Adaptive Probabilistic ODE Solvers Without Adaptive Memory Requirements
Authors: Nicholas Krämer
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: State Estimation, Time Series

Despite substantial progress in recent years, probabilistic solvers with adaptive step sizes can still not solve memory-demanding differential equations -- unless we care only about a single point in time (which is far too restrictive; we want the whole time series). Counterintuitively, the culprit is the adaptivity itself: Its unpredictable memory demands easily exceed our machine's capabilities, making our simulations fail unexpectedly and without warning. Still, dropping adaptivity would abandon years of progress, which can't be the answer. In this work, we solve this conundrum. We develop an adaptive probabilistic solver with fixed memory demands building on recent developments in robust state estimation. Switching to our method (i) eliminates memory issues for long time series, (ii) accelerates simulations by orders of magnitude through unlocking just-in-time compilation, and (iii) makes adaptive probabilistic solvers compatible with scientific computing in JAX.
Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation: A Machine Learning Approach
Authors: Eviatar Bach, Ricardo Baptista, Daniel Sanz-Alonso, Andrew Stuart
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00

The aim of these notes is to demonstrate the potential for ideas in machine learning to impact on the fields of inverse problems and data assimilation. The perspective is one that is primarily aimed at researchers from inverse problems and/or data assimilation who wish to see a mathematical presentation of machine learning as it pertains to their fields. As a by-product, we include a succinct mathematical treatment of various topics in machine learning.
AI-based particle track identification in scintillating fibres read out with imaging sensors
Authors: Noemi Bührer, Saúl Alonso-Monsalve, Matthew Franks, Till Dieminger, Davide Sgalaberna
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Anomaly Detection

This paper presents the development and application of an AI-based method for particle track identification using scintillating fibres read out with imaging sensors. We propose a variational autoencoder (VAE) to efficiently filter and identify frames containing signal from the substantial data generated by SPAD array sensors. Our VAE model, trained on purely background frames, demonstrated a high capability to distinguish frames containing particle tracks from background noise. The performance of the VAE-based anomaly detection was validated with experimental data, demonstrating the method's ability to efficiently identify relevant events with rapid processing time, suggesting a solid prospect for deployment as a fast inference tool on hardware for real-time anomaly detection. This work highlights the potential of combining advanced sensor technology with machine learning techniques to enhance particle detection and tracking.
Do we need more complex representations for structure? A comparison of note duration representation for Music Transformers
Authors: Gabriel Souza, Flavio Figueiredo, Alexei Machado, Deborah Guimarães
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Music Generation

In recent years, deep learning has achieved formidable results in creative computing. When it comes to music, one viable model for music generation are Transformer based models. However, while transformers models are popular for music generation, they often rely on annotated structural information. In this work, we inquire if the off-the-shelf Music Transformer models perform just as well on structural similarity metrics using only unannotated MIDI information. We show that a slight tweak to the most common representation yields small but significant improvements. We also advocate that searching for better unannotated musical representations is more cost-effective than producing large amounts of curated and annotated data.
Comparison of deep learning and conventional methods for disease onset prediction
Authors: Luis H. John, Chungsoo Kim, Jan A. Kors, Junhyuk Chang, Hannah Morgan-Cooper, Priya Desai, Chao Pang, Peter R. Rijnbeek, Jenna M. Reps, Egill A. Fridgeirsson
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Learning, Prediction

Background: Conventional prediction methods such as logistic regression and gradient boosting have been widely utilized for disease onset prediction for their reliability and interpretability. Deep learning methods promise enhanced prediction performance by extracting complex patterns from clinical data, but face challenges like data sparsity and high dimensionality. Methods: This study compares conventional and deep learning approaches to predict lung cancer, dementia, and bipolar disorder using observational data from eleven databases from North America, Europe, and Asia. Models were developed using logistic regression, gradient boosting, ResNet, and Transformer, and validated both internally and externally across the data sources. Discrimination performance was assessed using AUROC, and calibration was evaluated using Eavg. Findings: Across 11 datasets, conventional methods generally outperformed deep learning methods in terms of discrimination performance, particularly during external validation, highlighting their better transportability. Learning curves suggest that deep learning models require substantially larger datasets to reach the same performance levels as conventional methods. Calibration performance was also better for conventional methods, with ResNet showing the poorest calibration. Interpretation: Despite the potential of deep learning models to capture complex patterns in structured observational healthcare data, conventional models remain highly competitive for disease onset prediction, especially in scenarios involving smaller datasets and if lengthy training times need to be avoided. The study underscores the need for future research focused on optimizing deep learning models to handle the sparsity, high dimensionality, and heterogeneity inherent in healthcare datasets, and find new strategies to exploit the full capabilities of deep learning methods.
A Kernelizable Primal-Dual Formulation of the Multilinear Singular Value Decomposition
Authors: Frederiek Wesel, Kim Batselier
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

The ability to express a learning task in terms of a primal and a dual optimization problem lies at the core of a plethora of machine learning methods. For example, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM), Ridge Regression (RR), Lasso Regression (LR), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and more recently Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) have all been defined either in terms of primal weights or in terms of dual Lagrange multipliers. The primal formulation is computationally advantageous in the case of large sample size while the dual is preferred for high-dimensional data. Crucially, said learning problems can be made nonlinear through the introduction of a feature map in the primal problem, which corresponds to applying the kernel trick in the dual. In this paper we derive a primal-dual formulation of the Multilinear Singular Value Decomposition (MLSVD), which recovers as special cases both PCA and SVD. Besides enabling computational gains through the derived primal formulation, we propose a nonlinear extension of the MLSVD using feature maps, which results in a dual problem where a kernel tensor arises. We discuss potential applications in the context of signal analysis and deep learning.
The Implicit Bias of Structured State Space Models Can Be Poisoned With Clean Labels
Authors: Yonatan Slutzky, Yotam Alexander, Noam Razin, Nadav Cohen
Date: 2024-10-14 00:00:00
Tasks: State Space Models

Neural networks are powered by an implicit bias: a tendency of gradient descent to fit training data in a way that generalizes to unseen data. A recent class of neural network models gaining increasing popularity is structured state space models (SSMs), regarded as an efficient alternative to transformers. Prior work argued that the implicit bias of SSMs leads to generalization in a setting where data is generated by a low dimensional teacher. In this paper, we revisit the latter setting, and formally establish a phenomenon entirely undetected by prior work on the implicit bias of SSMs. Namely, we prove that while implicit bias leads to generalization under many choices of training data, there exist special examples whose inclusion in training completely distorts the implicit bias, to a point where generalization fails. This failure occurs despite the special training examples being labeled by the teacher, i.e. having clean labels! We empirically demonstrate the phenomenon, with SSMs trained independently and as part of non-linear neural networks. In the area of adversarial machine learning, disrupting generalization with cleanly labeled training examples is known as clean-label poisoning. Given the proliferation of SSMs, particularly in large language models, we believe significant efforts should be invested in further delineating their susceptibility to clean-label poisoning, and in developing methods for overcoming this susceptibility.