pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Orthogonal Causal Calibration
Authors: Justin Whitehouse, Christopher Jung, Vasilis Syrgkanis, Bryan Wilder, Zhiwei Steven Wu
Date: 2024-06-04 00:00:00

Estimates of heterogeneous treatment effects such as conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) and conditional quantile treatment effects (CQTEs) play an important role in real-world decision making. Given this importance, one should ensure these estimates are calibrated. While there is a rich literature on calibrating estimators of non-causal parameters, very few methods have been derived for calibrating estimators of causal parameters, or more generally estimators of quantities involving nuisance parameters. In this work, we develop general algorithms for reducing the task of causal calibration to that of calibrating a standard (non-causal) predictive model. Throughout, we study a notion of calibration defined with respect to an arbitrary, nuisance-dependent loss $\ell$, under which we say an estimator $\theta$ is calibrated if its predictions cannot be changed on any level set to decrease loss. For losses $\ell$ satisfying a condition called universal orthogonality, we present a simple algorithm that transforms partially-observed data into generalized pseudo-outcomes and applies any off-the-shelf calibration procedure. For losses $\ell$ satisfying a weaker assumption called conditional orthogonality, we provide a similar sample splitting algorithm the performs empirical risk minimization over an appropriately defined class of functions. Convergence of both algorithms follows from a generic, two term upper bound of the calibration error of any model. We demonstrate the practical applicability of our results in experiments on both observational and synthetic data. Our results are exceedingly general, showing that essentially any existing calibration algorithm can be used in causal settings, with additional loss only arising from errors in nuisance estimation.
Understanding Stochastic Natural Gradient Variational Inference
Authors: Kaiwen Wu, Jacob R. Gardner
Date: 2024-06-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Variational Inference

Stochastic natural gradient variational inference (NGVI) is a popular posterior inference method with applications in various probabilistic models. Despite its wide usage, little is known about the non-asymptotic convergence rate in the \emph{stochastic} setting. We aim to lessen this gap and provide a better understanding. For conjugate likelihoods, we prove the first $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{T})$ non-asymptotic convergence rate of stochastic NGVI. The complexity is no worse than stochastic gradient descent (\aka black-box variational inference) and the rate likely has better constant dependency that leads to faster convergence in practice. For non-conjugate likelihoods, we show that stochastic NGVI with the canonical parameterization implicitly optimizes a non-convex objective. Thus, a global convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{T})$ is unlikely without some significant new understanding of optimizing the ELBO using natural gradients.
Long-term foehn reconstruction combining unsupervised and supervised learning
Authors: Reto Stauffer, Achim Zeileis, Georg J. Mayr
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00

Foehn winds, characterized by abrupt temperature increases and wind speed changes, significantly impact regions on the leeward side of mountain ranges, e.g., by spreading wildfires. Understanding how foehn occurrences change under climate change is crucial. Unfortunately, foehn cannot be measured directly but has to be inferred from meteorological measurements employing suitable classification schemes. Hence, this approach is typically limited to specific periods for which the necessary data are available. We present a novel approach for reconstructing historical foehn occurrences using a combination of unsupervised and supervised probabilistic statistical learning methods. We utilize in-situ measurements (available for recent decades) to train an unsupervised learner (finite mixture model) for automatic foehn classification. These labeled data are then linked to reanalysis data (covering longer periods) using a supervised learner (lasso or boosting). This allows to reconstruct past foehn probabilities based solely on reanalysis data. Applying this method to ERA5 reanalysis data for six stations across Switzerland and Austria achieves accurate hourly reconstructions of north and south foehn occurrence, respectively, dating back to 1940. This paves the way for investigating how seasonal foehn patterns have evolved over the past 83 years, providing valuable insights into climate change impacts on these critical wind events.
Statistics-Informed Parameterized Quantum Circuit via Maximum Entropy Principle for Data Science and Finance
Authors: Xi-Ning Zhuang, Zhao-Yun Chen, Cheng Xue, Xiao-Fan Xu, Chao Wang, Huan-Yu Liu, Tai-Ping Sun, Yun-Jie Wang, Yu-Chun Wu, Guo-Ping Guo
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Quantum Machine Learning

Quantum machine learning has demonstrated significant potential in solving practical problems, particularly in statistics-focused areas such as data science and finance. However, challenges remain in preparing and learning statistical models on a quantum processor due to issues with trainability and interpretability. In this letter, we utilize the maximum entropy principle to design a statistics-informed parameterized quantum circuit (SI-PQC) for efficiently preparing and training of quantum computational statistical models, including arbitrary distributions and their weighted mixtures. The SI-PQC features a static structure with trainable parameters, enabling in-depth optimized circuit compilation, exponential reductions in resource and time consumption, and improved trainability and interpretability for learning quantum states and classical model parameters simultaneously. As an efficient subroutine for preparing and learning in various quantum algorithms, the SI-PQC addresses the input bottleneck and facilitates the injection of prior knowledge.
Convergence of the denoising diffusion probabilistic models for general noise schedules
Authors: Yumiharu Nakano
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Denoising, Noise Estimation

This work presents a theoretical analysis of the original formulation of denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), introduced by Ho, Jain, and Abbeel in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 33 (2020), pp. 6840-6851. An explicit upper bound is derived for the total variation distance between the distribution of the discrete-time DDPM sampling algorithm and a target data distribution, under general noise schedule parameters. The analysis assumes certain technical conditions on the data distribution and a linear growth condition on the noise estimation function. The sampling sequence emerges as an exponential integrator-type approximation of a reverse-time stochastic differential equation (SDE) over a finite time interval. Schr\"odinger's problem provides a tool for estimating the distributional error in reverse time, which connects the reverse-time error with its forward-time counterpart. The score function in DDPMs appears as an adapted solution of a forward-backward SDE, providing a foundation for analyzing the time-discretization error associated with the reverse-time SDE.
Sparsity-Agnostic Linear Bandits with Adaptive Adversaries
Authors: Tianyuan Jin, Kyoungseok Jang, Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Model Selection

We study stochastic linear bandits where, in each round, the learner receives a set of actions (i.e., feature vectors), from which it chooses an element and obtains a stochastic reward. The expected reward is a fixed but unknown linear function of the chosen action. We study sparse regret bounds, that depend on the number $S$ of non-zero coefficients in the linear reward function. Previous works focused on the case where $S$ is known, or the action sets satisfy additional assumptions. In this work, we obtain the first sparse regret bounds that hold when $S$ is unknown and the action sets are adversarially generated. Our techniques combine online to confidence set conversions with a novel randomized model selection approach over a hierarchy of nested confidence sets. When $S$ is known, our analysis recovers state-of-the-art bounds for adversarial action sets. We also show that a variant of our approach, using Exp3 to dynamically select the confidence sets, can be used to improve the empirical performance of stochastic linear bandits while enjoying a regret bound with optimal dependence on the time horizon.
Dynamic Structural Causal Models
Authors: Philip Boeken, Joris M. Mooij
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Discovery, Time Series

We study a specific type of SCM, called a Dynamic Structural Causal Model (DSCM), whose endogenous variables represent functions of time, which is possibly cyclic and allows for latent confounding. As a motivating use-case, we show that certain systems of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) can be appropriately represented with DSCMs. An immediate consequence of this construction is a graphical Markov property for systems of SDEs. We define a time-splitting operation, allowing us to analyse the concept of local independence (a notion of continuous-time Granger (non-)causality). We also define a subsampling operation, which returns a discrete-time DSCM, and which can be used for mathematical analysis of subsampled time-series. We give suggestions how DSCMs can be used for identification of the causal effect of time-dependent interventions, and how existing constraint-based causal discovery algorithms can be applied to time-series data.
Learning Decision Trees and Forests with Algorithmic Recourse
Authors: Kentaro Kanamori, Takuya Takagi, Ken Kobayashi, Yuichi Ike
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency

This paper proposes a new algorithm for learning accurate tree-based models while ensuring the existence of recourse actions. Algorithmic Recourse (AR) aims to provide a recourse action for altering the undesired prediction result given by a model. Typical AR methods provide a reasonable action by solving an optimization task of minimizing the required effort among executable actions. In practice, however, such actions do not always exist for models optimized only for predictive performance. To alleviate this issue, we formulate the task of learning an accurate classification tree under the constraint of ensuring the existence of reasonable actions for as many instances as possible. Then, we propose an efficient top-down greedy algorithm by leveraging the adversarial training techniques. We also show that our proposed algorithm can be applied to the random forest, which is known as a popular framework for learning tree ensembles. Experimental results demonstrated that our method successfully provided reasonable actions to more instances than the baselines without significantly degrading accuracy and computational efficiency.
Joint Learning of Linear Dynamical Systems under Smoothness Constraints
Authors: Hemant Tyagi
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00

We consider the problem of joint learning of multiple linear dynamical systems. This has received significant attention recently under different types of assumptions on the model parameters. The setting we consider involves a collection of $m$ linear systems, each of which resides on a node of a given undirected graph $G = ([m], \mathcal{E})$. We assume that the system matrices are marginally stable, and satisfy a smoothness constraint w.r.t $G$ -- akin to the quadratic variation of a signal on a graph. Given access to the states of the nodes over $T$ time points, we then propose two estimators for joint estimation of the system matrices, along with non-asymptotic error bounds on the mean-squared error (MSE). In particular, we show conditions under which the MSE converges to zero as $m$ increases, typically polynomially fast w.r.t $m$. The results hold under mild (i.e., $T \sim \log m$), or sometimes, even no assumption on $T$ (i.e. $T \geq 2$).
Faster Diffusion Sampling with Randomized Midpoints: Sequential and Parallel
Authors: Shivam Gupta, Linda Cai, Sitan Chen
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00

Sampling algorithms play an important role in controlling the quality and runtime of diffusion model inference. In recent years, a number of works~\cite{chen2023sampling,chen2023ode,benton2023error,lee2022convergence} have proposed schemes for diffusion sampling with provable guarantees; these works show that for essentially any data distribution, one can approximately sample in polynomial time given a sufficiently accurate estimate of its score functions at different noise levels. In this work, we propose a new scheme inspired by Shen and Lee's randomized midpoint method for log-concave sampling~\cite{ShenL19}. We prove that this approach achieves the best known dimension dependence for sampling from arbitrary smooth distributions in total variation distance ($\widetilde O(d^{5/12})$ compared to $\widetilde O(\sqrt{d})$ from prior work). We also show that our algorithm can be parallelized to run in only $\widetilde O(\log^2 d)$ parallel rounds, constituting the first provable guarantees for parallel sampling with diffusion models. As a byproduct of our methods, for the well-studied problem of log-concave sampling in total variation distance, we give an algorithm and simple analysis achieving dimension dependence $\widetilde O(d^{5/12})$ compared to $\widetilde O(\sqrt{d})$ from prior work.
Demystifying SGD with Doubly Stochastic Gradients
Authors: Kyurae Kim, Joohwan Ko, Yi-An Ma, Jacob R. Gardner
Date: 2024-06-03 00:00:00

Optimization objectives in the form of a sum of intractable expectations are rising in importance (e.g., diffusion models, variational autoencoders, and many more), a setting also known as "finite sum with infinite data." For these problems, a popular strategy is to employ SGD with doubly stochastic gradients (doubly SGD): the expectations are estimated using the gradient estimator of each component, while the sum is estimated by subsampling over these estimators. Despite its popularity, little is known about the convergence properties of doubly SGD, except under strong assumptions such as bounded variance. In this work, we establish the convergence of doubly SGD with independent minibatching and random reshuffling under general conditions, which encompasses dependent component gradient estimators. In particular, for dependent estimators, our analysis allows fined-grained analysis of the effect correlations. As a result, under a per-iteration computational budget of $b \times m$, where $b$ is the minibatch size and $m$ is the number of Monte Carlo samples, our analysis suggests where one should invest most of the budget in general. Furthermore, we prove that random reshuffling (RR) improves the complexity dependence on the subsampling noise.
A Tutorial on Doubly Robust Learning for Causal Inference
Authors: Hlynur Davíð Hlynsson
Date: 2024-06-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference

Doubly robust learning offers a robust framework for causal inference from observational data by integrating propensity score and outcome modeling. Despite its theoretical appeal, practical adoption remains limited due to perceived complexity and inaccessible software. This tutorial aims to demystify doubly robust methods and demonstrate their application using the EconML package. We provide an introduction to causal inference, discuss the principles of outcome modeling and propensity scores, and illustrate the doubly robust approach through simulated case studies. By simplifying the methodology and offering practical coding examples, we intend to make doubly robust learning accessible to researchers and practitioners in data science and statistics.
Lasso Bandit with Compatibility Condition on Optimal Arm
Authors: Harin Lee, TaeHyun Hwang, Min-hwan Oh
Date: 2024-06-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Diversity

We consider a stochastic sparse linear bandit problem where only a sparse subset of context features affects the expected reward function, i.e., the unknown reward parameter has sparse structure. In the existing Lasso bandit literature, the compatibility conditions together with additional diversity conditions on the context features are imposed to achieve regret bounds that only depend logarithmically on the ambient dimension $d$. In this paper, we demonstrate that even without the additional diversity assumptions, the compatibility condition only on the optimal arm is sufficient to derive a regret bound that depends logarithmically on $d$, and our assumption is strictly weaker than those used in the lasso bandit literature under the single parameter setting. We propose an algorithm that adapts the forced-sampling technique and prove that the proposed algorithm achieves $O(\text{poly}\log dT)$ regret under the margin condition. To our knowledge, the proposed algorithm requires the weakest assumptions among Lasso bandit algorithms under a single parameter setting that achieve $O(\text{poly}\log dT)$ regret. Through the numerical experiments, we confirm the superior performance of our proposed algorithm.
Covariance-Adaptive Sequential Black-box Optimization for Diffusion Targeted Generation
Authors: Yueming Lyu, Kim Yong Tan, Yew Soon Ong, Ivor W. Tsang
Date: 2024-06-02 00:00:00
Tasks: 3D Molecule Generation

Diffusion models have demonstrated great potential in generating high-quality content for images, natural language, protein domains, etc. However, how to perform user-preferred targeted generation via diffusion models with only black-box target scores of users remains challenging. To address this issue, we first formulate the fine-tuning of the targeted reserve-time stochastic differential equation (SDE) associated with a pre-trained diffusion model as a sequential black-box optimization problem. Furthermore, we propose a novel covariance-adaptive sequential optimization algorithm to optimize cumulative black-box scores under unknown transition dynamics. Theoretically, we prove a $O(\frac{d^2}{\sqrt{T}})$ convergence rate for cumulative convex functions without smooth and strongly convex assumptions. Empirically, experiments on both numerical test problems and target-guided 3D-molecule generation tasks show the superior performance of our method in achieving better target scores.
Is In-Context Learning in Large Language Models Bayesian? A Martingale Perspective
Authors: Fabian Falck, Ziyu Wang, Chris Holmes
Date: 2024-06-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference, In-Context Learning

In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a particularly remarkable characteristic of Large Language Models (LLM): given a pretrained LLM and an observed dataset, LLMs can make predictions for new data points from the same distribution without fine-tuning. Numerous works have postulated ICL as approximately Bayesian inference, rendering this a natural hypothesis. In this work, we analyse this hypothesis from a new angle through the martingale property, a fundamental requirement of a Bayesian learning system for exchangeable data. We show that the martingale property is a necessary condition for unambiguous predictions in such scenarios, and enables a principled, decomposed notion of uncertainty vital in trustworthy, safety-critical systems. We derive actionable checks with corresponding theory and test statistics which must hold if the martingale property is satisfied. We also examine if uncertainty in LLMs decreases as expected in Bayesian learning when more data is observed. In three experiments, we provide evidence for violations of the martingale property, and deviations from a Bayesian scaling behaviour of uncertainty, falsifying the hypothesis that ICL is Bayesian.
Logistic Variational Bayes Revisited
Authors: Michael Komodromos, Marina Evangelou, Sarah Filippi
Date: 2024-06-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference, Bayesian Optimization, regression

Variational logistic regression is a popular method for approximate Bayesian inference seeing wide-spread use in many areas of machine learning including: Bayesian optimization, reinforcement learning and multi-instance learning to name a few. However, due to the intractability of the Evidence Lower Bound, authors have turned to the use of Monte Carlo, quadrature or bounds to perform inference, methods which are costly or give poor approximations to the true posterior. In this paper we introduce a new bound for the expectation of softplus function and subsequently show how this can be applied to variational logistic regression and Gaussian process classification. Unlike other bounds, our proposal does not rely on extending the variational family, or introducing additional parameters to ensure the bound is tight. In fact, we show that this bound is tighter than the state-of-the-art, and that the resulting variational posterior achieves state-of-the-art performance, whilst being significantly faster to compute than Monte-Carlo methods.
On Non-asymptotic Theory of Recurrent Neural Networks in Temporal Point Processes
Authors: Zhiheng Chen, Guanhua Fang, Wen Yu
Date: 2024-06-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Point Processes

Temporal point process (TPP) is an important tool for modeling and predicting irregularly timed events across various domains. Recently, the recurrent neural network (RNN)-based TPPs have shown practical advantages over traditional parametric TPP models. However, in the current literature, it remains nascent in understanding neural TPPs from theoretical viewpoints. In this paper, we establish the excess risk bounds of RNN-TPPs under many well-known TPP settings. We especially show that an RNN-TPP with no more than four layers can achieve vanishing generalization errors. Our technical contributions include the characterization of the complexity of the multi-layer RNN class, the construction of $\tanh$ neural networks for approximating dynamic event intensity functions, and the truncation technique for alleviating the issue of unbounded event sequences. Our results bridge the gap between TPP's application and neural network theory.
Portfolio Optimization with Robust Covariance and Conditional Value-at-Risk Constraints
Authors: Qiqin Zhou
Date: 2024-06-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Portfolio Optimization

The measure of portfolio risk is an important input of the Markowitz framework. In this study, we explored various methods to obtain a robust covariance estimators that are less susceptible to financial data noise. We evaluated the performance of large-cap portfolio using various forms of Ledoit Shrinkage Covariance and Robust Gerber Covariance matrix during the period of 2012 to 2022. Out-of-sample performance indicates that robust covariance estimators can outperform the market capitalization-weighted benchmark portfolio, particularly during bull markets. The Gerber covariance with Mean-Absolute-Deviation (MAD) emerged as the top performer. However, robust estimators do not manage tail risk well under extreme market conditions, for example, Covid-19 period. When we aim to control for tail risk, we should add constraint on Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) to make more conservative decision on risk exposure. Additionally, we incorporated unsupervised clustering algorithm K-means to the optimization algorithm (i.e. Nested Clustering Optimization, NCO). It not only helps mitigate numerical instability of the optimization algorithm, but also contributes to lower drawdown as well.