pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Linear Discriminant Analysis with Gradient Optimization on Covariance Inverse
Authors: Cencheng Shen, Yuexiao Dong
Date: 2025-06-07 00:00:00

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a fundamental method in statistical pattern recognition and classification, achieving Bayes optimality under Gaussian assumptions. However, it is well-known that classical LDA may struggle in high-dimensional settings due to instability in covariance estimation. In this work, we propose LDA with gradient optimization (LDA-GO), a new approach that directly optimizes the inverse covariance matrix via gradient descent. The algorithm parametrizes the inverse covariance matrix through Cholesky factorization, incorporates a low-rank extension to reduce computational complexity, and considers a multiple-initialization strategy, including identity initialization and warm-starting from the classical LDA estimates. The effectiveness of LDA-GO is demonstrated through extensive multivariate simulations and real-data experiments.
fairmetrics: An R package for group fairness evaluation
Authors: Benjamin Smith, Jianhui Gao, Jessica Gronsbell
Date: 2025-06-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Fairness

Fairness is a growing area of machine learning (ML) that focuses on ensuring models do not produce systematically biased outcomes for specific groups, particularly those defined by protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. Evaluating fairness is a critical aspect of ML model development, as biased models can perpetuate structural inequalities. The {fairmetrics} R package offers a user-friendly framework for rigorously evaluating numerous group-based fairness criteria, including metrics based on independence (e.g., statistical parity), separation (e.g., equalized odds), and sufficiency (e.g., predictive parity). Group-based fairness criteria assess whether a model is equally accurate or well-calibrated across a set of predefined groups so that appropriate bias mitigation strategies can be implemented. {fairmetrics} provides both point and interval estimates for multiple metrics through a convenient wrapper function and includes an example dataset derived from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care, version II (MIMIC-II) database (Goldberger et al., 2000; Raffa, 2016).
Asymptotically exact variational flows via involutive MCMC kernels
Authors: Zuheng Xu, Trevor Campbell
Date: 2025-06-02 00:00:00

Most expressive variational families -- such as normalizing flows -- lack practical convergence guarantees, as their theoretical assurances typically hold only at the intractable global optimum. In this work, we present a general recipe for constructing tuning-free, asymptotically exact variational flows from involutive MCMC kernels. The core methodological component is a novel representation of general involutive MCMC kernels as invertible, measure-preserving iterated random function systems, which act as the flow maps of our variational flows. This leads to three new variational families with provable total variation convergence. Our framework resolves key practical limitations of existing variational families with similar guarantees (e.g., MixFlows), while requiring substantially weaker theoretical assumptions. Finally, we demonstrate the competitive performance of our flows across tasks including posterior approximation, Monte Carlo estimates, and normalization constant estimation, outperforming or matching No-U-Turn sampler (NUTS) and black-box normalizing flows.
Machine-Learned Sampling of Conditioned Path Measures
Authors: Qijia Jiang, Reuben Cohn-Gordon
Date: 2025-06-02 00:00:00

We propose algorithms for sampling from posterior path measures $P(C([0, T], \mathbb{R}^d))$ under a general prior process. This leverages ideas from (1) controlled equilibrium dynamics, which gradually transport between two path measures, and (2) optimization in $\infty$-dimensional probability space endowed with a Wasserstein metric, which can be used to evolve a density curve under the specified likelihood. The resulting algorithms are theoretically grounded and can be integrated seamlessly with neural networks for learning the target trajectory ensembles, without access to data.
$whittlehurst$: A Python package implementing Whittle's likelihood estimation of the Hurst exponent
Authors: Bálint Csanády, Lóránt Nagy, András Lukács
Date: 2025-05-16 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency

This paper presents $whittlehurst$, a Python package implementing Whittle's likelihood method for estimating the Hurst exponent in fractional Brownian motion (fBm). While the theoretical foundations of Whittle's estimator are well-established, practical and computational considerations are critical for effective use. We focus explicitly on assessing our implementation's performance across several numerical approximations of the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) spectral density, comparing their computational efficiency, accuracy, and consistency across varying input sequence lengths. Extensive empirical evaluations show that our implementation achieves state-of-the-art estimation accuracy and computational speed. Additionally, we benchmark our method against other popular Hurst exponent estimation techniques on synthetic and real-world data, emphasizing practical considerations that arise when applying these estimators to financial and biomedical data.
Knockoffs Inference under Privacy Constraints
Authors: Zhanrui Cai, Yingying Fan, Lan Gao
Date: 2025-06-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Variable Selection

Model-X knockoff framework offers a model-free variable selection method that ensures finite sample false discovery rate (FDR) control. However, the complexity of generating knockoff variables, coupled with the model-free assumption, presents significant challenges for protecting data privacy in this context. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive framework for knockoff inference within the differential privacy paradigm. Our proposed method guarantees robust privacy protection while preserving the exact FDR control entailed by the original model-X knockoff procedure. We further conduct power analysis and establish sufficient conditions under which the noise added for privacy preservation does not asymptotically compromise power. Through various applications, we demonstrate that the differential privacy knockoff (DP-knockoff) method can be effectively utilized to safeguard privacy during variable selection with FDR control in both low and high dimensional settings.
LLM-Powered CPI Prediction Inference with Online Text Time Series
Authors: Yingying Fan, Jinchi Lv, Ao Sun, Yurou Wang
Date: 2025-06-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction Intervals, Time Series

Forecasting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important yet challenging task in economics, where most existing approaches rely on low-frequency, survey-based data. With the recent advances of large language models (LLMs), there is growing potential to leverage high-frequency online text data for improved CPI prediction, an area still largely unexplored. This paper proposes LLM-CPI, an LLM-based approach for CPI prediction inference incorporating online text time series. We collect a large set of high-frequency online texts from a popularly used Chinese social network site and employ LLMs such as ChatGPT and the trained BERT models to construct continuous inflation labels for posts that are related to inflation. Online text embeddings are extracted via LDA and BERT. We develop a joint time series framework that combines monthly CPI data with LLM-generated daily CPI surrogates. The monthly model employs an ARX structure combining observed CPI data with text embeddings and macroeconomic variables, while the daily model uses a VARX structure built on LLM-generated CPI surrogates and text embeddings. We establish the asymptotic properties of the method and provide two forms of constructed prediction intervals. The finite-sample performance and practical advantages of LLM-CPI are demonstrated through both simulation and real data examples.
Conditional Local Independence Testing with Application to Dynamic Causal Discovery
Authors: Mingzhou Liu, Xinwei Sun, Yizhou Wang
Date: 2025-06-09 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Discovery

In this note, we extend the conditional local independence testing theory developed in Christgau et al. (2024) to Ito processes. The result can be applied to causal discovery in dynamic systems.
Heavy Lasso: sparse penalized regression under heavy-tailed noise via data-augmented soft-thresholding
Authors: The Tien Mai
Date: 2025-06-09 00:00:00
Tasks: Data Augmentation

High-dimensional linear regression is a fundamental tool in modern statistics, particularly when the number of predictors exceeds the sample size. The classical Lasso, which relies on the squared loss, performs well under Gaussian noise assumptions but often deteriorates in the presence of heavy-tailed errors or outliers commonly encountered in real data applications such as genomics, finance, and signal processing. To address these challenges, we propose a novel robust regression method, termed Heavy Lasso, which incorporates a loss function inspired by the Student's t-distribution within a Lasso penalization framework. This loss retains the desirable quadratic behavior for small residuals while adaptively downweighting large deviations, thus enhancing robustness to heavy-tailed noise and outliers. Heavy Lasso enjoys computationally efficient by leveraging a data augmentation scheme and a soft-thresholding algorithm, which integrate seamlessly with classical Lasso solvers. Theoretically, we establish non-asymptotic bounds under both $\ell_1$ and $\ell_2 $ norms, by employing the framework of localized convexity, showing that the Heavy Lasso estimator achieves rates comparable to those of the Huber loss. Extensive numerical studies demonstrate Heavy Lasso's superior performance over classical Lasso and other robust variants, highlighting its effectiveness in challenging noisy settings. Our method is implemented in the R package heavylasso available on Github.
Permutation-Free High-Order Interaction Tests
Authors: Zhaolu Liu, Robert L. Peach, Mauricio Barahona
Date: 2025-06-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Discovery, feature selection

Kernel-based hypothesis tests offer a flexible, non-parametric tool to detect high-order interactions in multivariate data, beyond pairwise relationships. Yet the scalability of such tests is limited by the computationally demanding permutation schemes used to generate null approximations. Here we introduce a family of permutation-free high-order tests for joint independence and partial factorisations of $d$ variables. Our tests eliminate the need for permutation-based approximations by leveraging V-statistics and a novel cross-centring technique to yield test statistics with a standard normal limiting distribution under the null. We present implementations of the tests and showcase their efficacy and scalability through synthetic datasets. We also show applications inspired by causal discovery and feature selection, which highlight both the importance of high-order interactions in data and the need for efficient computational methods.
Testing Hypotheses of Covariate Effects on Topics of Discourse
Authors: Gabriel Phelan, David A. Campbell
Date: 2025-06-05 00:00:00
Tasks: parameter estimation, Uncertainty Quantification

We introduce an approach to topic modelling with document-level covariates that remains tractable in the face of large text corpora. This is achieved by de-emphasizing the role of parameter estimation in an underlying probabilistic model, assuming instead that the data come from a fixed but unknown distribution whose statistical functionals are of interest. We propose combining a convex formulation of non-negative matrix factorization with standard regression techniques as a fast-to-compute and useful estimate of such a functional. Uncertainty quantification can then be achieved by reposing non-parametric resampling methods on top of this scheme. This is in contrast to popular topic modelling paradigms, which posit a complex and often hard-to-fit generative model of the data. We argue that the simple, non-parametric approach advocated here is faster, more interpretable, and enjoys better inferential justification than said generative models. Finally, our methods are demonstrated with an application analysing covariate effects on discourse of flavours attributed to Canadian beers.
Recover Experimental Data with Selection Bias using Counterfactual Logic
Authors: Jingyang He, Shuai Wang, Ang Li
Date: 2025-05-31 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference, counterfactual, Selection bias

Selection bias, arising from the systematic inclusion or exclusion of certain samples, poses a significant challenge to the validity of causal inference. While Bareinboim et al. introduced methods for recovering unbiased observational and interventional distributions from biased data using partial external information, the complexity of the backdoor adjustment and the method's strong reliance on observational data limit its applicability in many practical settings. In this paper, we formally discover the recoverability of $P(Y^*_{x^*})$ under selection bias with experimental data. By explicitly constructing counterfactual worlds via Structural Causal Models (SCMs), we analyze how selection mechanisms in the observational world propagate to the counterfactual domain. We derive a complete set of graphical and theoretical criteria to determine that the experimental distribution remain unaffected by selection bias. Furthermore, we propose principled methods for leveraging partially unbiased observational data to recover $P(Y^*_{x^*})$ from biased experimental datasets. Simulation studies replicating realistic research scenarios demonstrate the practical utility of our approach, offering concrete guidance for mitigating selection bias in applied causal inference.
Probabilistic Factorial Experimental Design for Combinatorial Interventions
Authors: Divya Shyamal, JiaQi Zhang, Caroline Uhler
Date: 2025-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Experimental Design

A combinatorial intervention, consisting of multiple treatments applied to a single unit with potentially interactive effects, has substantial applications in fields such as biomedicine, engineering, and beyond. Given $p$ possible treatments, conducting all possible $2^p$ combinatorial interventions can be laborious and quickly becomes infeasible as $p$ increases. Here we introduce probabilistic factorial experimental design, formalized from how scientists perform lab experiments. In this framework, the experimenter selects a dosage for each possible treatment and applies it to a group of units. Each unit independently receives a random combination of treatments, sampled from a product Bernoulli distribution determined by the dosages. Additionally, the experimenter can carry out such experiments over multiple rounds, adapting the design in an active manner. We address the optimal experimental design problem within an intervention model that imposes bounded-degree interactions between treatments. In the passive setting, we provide a closed-form solution for the near-optimal design. Our results prove that a dosage of $\tfrac{1}{2}$ for each treatment is optimal up to a factor of $1+O(\tfrac{\ln(n)}{n})$ for estimating any $k$-way interaction model, regardless of $k$, and imply that $O\big(kp^{3k}\ln(p)\big)$ observations are required to accurately estimate this model. For the multi-round setting, we provide a near-optimal acquisition function that can be numerically optimized. We also explore several extensions of the design problem and finally validate our findings through simulations.
On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning
Authors: Shubhendu Trivedi, Brian D. Nord
Date: 2025-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Uncertainty Quantification

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and estimation across disciplines, and (b) the varying technical requirements for establishing trustworthy uncertainties in diverse problem contexts. In this position paper, we aim to clarify the depth of these challenges by identifying these inconsistencies and articulating how different contexts impose distinct epistemic demands. We examine the current landscape of estimation targets (e.g., prediction, inference, simulation-based inference), uncertainty constructs (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, fiducial), and the approaches used to map between them. Drawing on the literature, we highlight and explain examples of problematic mappings. To help address these issues, we advocate for standards that promote alignment between the \textit{intent} and \textit{implementation} of uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches. We discuss several axes of trustworthiness that are necessary (if not sufficient) for reliable UQ in ML models, and show how these axes can inform the design and evaluation of uncertainty-aware ML systems. Our practical recommendations focus on scientific ML, offering illustrative cases and use scenarios, particularly in the context of simulation-based inference (SBI).
Simulation-Based Inference for Adaptive Experiments
Authors: Brian M Cho, Aurélien Bibaut, Nathan Kallus
Date: 2025-06-03 00:00:00

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or enhance the precision of estimating key parameters. Current approaches for inference after adaptive sampling either rely on asymptotic normality under restricted experiment designs or underpowered martingale concentration inequalities that lead to weak power in practice. To bypass these limitations, we propose a simulation-based approach for conducting hypothesis tests and constructing confidence intervals for arm specific means and their differences. Our simulation-based approach uses positively biased nuisances to generate additional trajectories of the experiment, which we call \textit{simulation with optimism}. Using these simulations, we characterize the distribution potentially non-normal sample mean test statistic to conduct inference. We provide guarantees for (i) asymptotic type I error control, (ii) convergence of our confidence intervals, and (iii) asymptotic strong consistency of our estimator over a wide variety of common bandit designs. Our empirical results show that our approach achieves the desired coverage while reducing confidence interval widths by up to 50%, with drastic improvements for arms not targeted by the design.
Joint Modeling for Learning Decision-Making Dynamics in Behavioral Experiments
Authors: Yuan Bian, Xingche Guo, Yuanjia Wang
Date: 2025-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Major depressive disorder (MDD), a leading cause of disability and mortality, is associated with reward-processing abnormalities and concentration issues. Motivated by the probabilistic reward task from the Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures of Antidepressant Response in Clinical Care (EMBARC) study, we propose a novel framework that integrates the reinforcement learning (RL) model and drift-diffusion model (DDM) to jointly analyze reward-based decision-making with response times. To account for emerging evidence suggesting that decision-making may alternate between multiple interleaved strategies, we model latent state switching using a hidden Markov model (HMM). In the ''engaged'' state, decisions follow an RL-DDM, simultaneously capturing reward processing, decision dynamics, and temporal structure. In contrast, in the ''lapsed'' state, decision-making is modeled using a simplified DDM, where specific parameters are fixed to approximate random guessing with equal probability. The proposed method is implemented using a computationally efficient generalized expectation-maximization algorithm with forward-backward procedures. Through extensive numerical studies, we demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms competing approaches under various reward-generating distributions, both with and without strategy switching. When applied to the EMBARC study, our framework reveals that MDD patients exhibit lower overall engagement than healthy controls and experience longer decision times when they do engage. Additionally, we show that neuroimaging measures of brain activities are associated with decision-making characteristics in the ''engaged'' state but not in the ''lapsed'' state, providing evidence of brain-behavioral association specific to the ''engaged'' state.
Learning Treatment Representations for Downstream Instrumental Variable Regression
Authors: Shiangyi Lin, Hui Lan, Vasilis Syrgkanis
Date: 2025-06-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Dimensionality Reduction, regression, Representation Learning

Traditional instrumental variable (IV) estimators face a fundamental constraint: they can only accommodate as many endogenous treatment variables as available instruments. This limitation becomes particularly challenging in settings where the treatment is presented in a high-dimensional and unstructured manner (e.g. descriptions of patient treatment pathways in a hospital). In such settings, researchers typically resort to applying unsupervised dimension reduction techniques to learn a low-dimensional treatment representation prior to implementing IV regression analysis. We show that such methods can suffer from substantial omitted variable bias due to implicit regularization in the representation learning step. We propose a novel approach to construct treatment representations by explicitly incorporating instrumental variables during the representation learning process. Our approach provides a framework for handling high-dimensional endogenous variables with limited instruments. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that fitting IV models on these instrument-informed representations ensures identification of directions that optimize outcome prediction. Our experiments show that our proposed methodology improves upon the conventional two-stage approaches that perform dimension reduction without incorporating instrument information.
Uncovering Bias Mechanisms in Observational Studies
Authors: Ilker Demirel, Zeshan Hussain, Piersilvio De Bartolomeis, David Sontag
Date: 2025-06-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference

Observational studies are a key resource for causal inference but are often affected by systematic biases. Prior work has focused mainly on detecting these biases, via sensitivity analyses and comparisons with randomized controlled trials, or mitigating them through debiasing techniques. However, there remains a lack of methodology for uncovering the underlying mechanisms driving these biases, e.g., whether due to hidden confounding or selection of participants. In this work, we show that the relationship between bias magnitude and the predictive performance of nuisance function estimators (in the observational study) can help distinguish among common sources of causal bias. We validate our methodology through extensive synthetic experiments and a real-world case study, demonstrating its effectiveness in revealing the mechanisms behind observed biases. Our framework offers a new lens for understanding and characterizing bias in observational studies, with practical implications for improving causal inference.