pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Predicting Traffic Congestion at Urban Intersections Using Data-Driven Modeling
Authors: Tara Kelly, Jessica Gupta
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Missing Values

Traffic congestion at intersections is a significant issue in urban areas, leading to increased commute times, safety hazards, and operational inefficiencies. This study aims to develop a predictive model for congestion at intersections in major U.S. cities, utilizing a dataset of trip-logging metrics from commercial vehicles across 4,800 intersections. The dataset encompasses 27 features, including intersection coordinates, street names, time of day, and traffic metrics (Kashyap et al., 2019). Additional features, such as rainfall/snowfall percentage, distance from downtown and outskirts, and road types, were incorporated to enhance the model's predictive power. The methodology involves data exploration, feature transformation, and handling missing values through low-rank models and label encoding. The proposed model has the potential to assist city planners and governments in anticipating traffic hot spots, optimizing operations, and identifying infrastructure challenges.
Measuring the Predictability of Recommender Systems using Structural Complexity Metrics
Authors: Alfonso Valderrama, Andrés Abeliuk
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Recommendation Systems

Recommender systems (RS) are central to the filtering and curation of online content. These algorithms predict user ratings for unseen items based on past preferences. Despite their importance, the innate predictability of RS has received limited attention. This study introduces data-driven metrics to measure the predictability of RS based on the structural complexity of the user-item rating matrix. A low predictability score indicates complex and unpredictable user-item interactions, while a high predictability score reveals less complex patterns with predictive potential. We propose two strategies that use singular value decomposition (SVD) and matrix factorization (MF) to measure structural complexity. By perturbing the data and evaluating the prediction of the perturbed version, we explore the structural consistency indicated by the SVD singular vectors. The assumption is that a random perturbation of highly structured data does not change its structure. Empirical results show a high correlation between our metrics and the accuracy of the best-performing prediction algorithms on real data sets.
The Illusion of State in State-Space Models
Authors: William Merrill, Jackson Petty, Ashish Sabharwal
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Mamba, State Space Models

State-space models (SSMs) have emerged as a potential alternative architecture for building large language models (LLMs) compared to the previously ubiquitous transformer architecture. One theoretical weakness of transformers is that they cannot express certain kinds of sequential computation and state tracking (Merrill & Sabharwal, 2023), which SSMs are explicitly designed to address via their close architectural similarity to recurrent neural networks (RNNs). But do SSMs truly have an advantage (over transformers) in expressive power for state tracking? Surprisingly, the answer is no. Our analysis reveals that the expressive power of SSMs is limited very similarly to transformers: SSMs cannot express computation outside the complexity class $\mathsf{TC}^0$. In particular, this means they cannot solve simple state-tracking problems like permutation composition. It follows that SSMs are provably unable to accurately track chess moves with certain notation, evaluate code, or track entities in a long narrative. To supplement our formal analysis, we report experiments showing that Mamba-style SSMs indeed struggle with state tracking. Thus, despite its recurrent formulation, the "state" in an SSM is an illusion: SSMs have similar expressiveness limitations to non-recurrent models like transformers, which may fundamentally limit their ability to solve real-world state-tracking problems.
Leveraging viscous Hamilton-Jacobi PDEs for uncertainty quantification in scientific machine learning
Authors: Zongren Zou, Tingwei Meng, Paula Chen, Jérôme Darbon, George Em Karniadakis
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference, Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in scientific machine learning (SciML) combines the powerful predictive power of SciML with methods for quantifying the reliability of the learned models. However, two major challenges remain: limited interpretability and expensive training procedures. We provide a new interpretation for UQ problems by establishing a new theoretical connection between some Bayesian inference problems arising in SciML and viscous Hamilton-Jacobi partial differential equations (HJ PDEs). Namely, we show that the posterior mean and covariance can be recovered from the spatial gradient and Hessian of the solution to a viscous HJ PDE. As a first exploration of this connection, we specialize to Bayesian inference problems with linear models, Gaussian likelihoods, and Gaussian priors. In this case, the associated viscous HJ PDEs can be solved using Riccati ODEs, and we develop a new Riccati-based methodology that provides computational advantages when continuously updating the model predictions. Specifically, our Riccati-based approach can efficiently add or remove data points to the training set invariant to the order of the data and continuously tune hyperparameters. Moreover, neither update requires retraining on or access to previously incorporated data. We provide several examples from SciML involving noisy data and \textit{epistemic uncertainty} to illustrate the potential advantages of our approach. In particular, this approach's amenability to data streaming applications demonstrates its potential for real-time inferences, which, in turn, allows for applications in which the predicted uncertainty is used to dynamically alter the learning process.
Megalodon: Efficient LLM Pretraining and Inference with Unlimited Context Length
Authors: Xuezhe Ma, Xiaomeng Yang, Wenhan Xiong, Beidi Chen, Lili Yu, Hao Zhang, Jonathan May, Luke Zettlemoyer, Omer Levy, Chunting Zhou
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: State Space Models

The quadratic complexity and weak length extrapolation of Transformers limits their ability to scale to long sequences, and while sub-quadratic solutions like linear attention and state space models exist, they empirically underperform Transformers in pretraining efficiency and downstream task accuracy. We introduce Megalodon, a neural architecture for efficient sequence modeling with unlimited context length. Megalodon inherits the architecture of Mega (exponential moving average with gated attention), and further introduces multiple technical components to improve its capability and stability, including complex exponential moving average (CEMA), timestep normalization layer, normalized attention mechanism and pre-norm with two-hop residual configuration. In a controlled head-to-head comparison with Llama2, Megalodon achieves better efficiency than Transformer in the scale of 7 billion parameters and 2 trillion training tokens. Megalodon reaches a training loss of 1.70, landing mid-way between Llama2-7B (1.75) and 13B (1.67). Code: https://github.com/XuezheMax/megalodon
Diffusion-Based Joint Temperature and Precipitation Emulation of Earth System Models
Authors: Katie Christensen, Lyric Otto, Seth Bassetti, Claudia Tebaldi, Brian Hutchinson
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency

Earth system models (ESMs) are the principal tools used in climate science to generate future climate projections under various atmospheric emissions scenarios on a global or regional scale. Generative deep learning approaches are suitable for emulating these tools due to their computational efficiency and ability, once trained, to generate realizations in a fraction of the time required by ESMs. We extend previous work that used a generative probabilistic diffusion model to emulate ESMs by targeting the joint emulation of multiple variables, temperature and precipitation, by a single diffusion model. Joint generation of multiple variables is critical to generate realistic samples of phenomena resulting from the interplay of multiple variables. The diffusion model emulator takes in the monthly mean-maps of temperature and precipitation and produces the daily values of each of these variables that exhibit statistical properties similar to those generated by ESMs. Our results show the outputs from our extended model closely resemble those from ESMs on various climate metrics including dry spells and hot streaks, and that the joint distribution of temperature and precipitation in our sample closely matches those of ESMs.
Convergence of coordinate ascent variational inference for log-concave measures via optimal transport
Authors: Manuel Arnese, Daniel Lacker
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Variational Inference

Mean field variational inference (VI) is the problem of finding the closest product (factorized) measure, in the sense of relative entropy, to a given high-dimensional probability measure $\rho$. The well known Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm aims to approximate this product measure by iteratively optimizing over one coordinate (factor) at a time, which can be done explicitly. Despite its popularity, the convergence of CAVI remains poorly understood. In this paper, we prove the convergence of CAVI for log-concave densities $\rho$. If additionally $\log \rho$ has Lipschitz gradient, we find a linear rate of convergence, and if also $\rho$ is strongly log-concave, we find an exponential rate. Our analysis starts from the observation that mean field VI, while notoriously non-convex in the usual sense, is in fact displacement convex in the sense of optimal transport when $\rho$ is log-concave. This allows us to adapt techniques from the optimization literature on coordinate descent algorithms in Euclidean space.
CATS: Contextually-Aware Thresholding for Sparsity in Large Language Models
Authors: DongHyun Lee, Je-Yong Lee, Genghan Zhang, Mo Tiwari, Azalia Mirhoseini
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: GPU

Large Language Models (LLMs) have dramatically advanced AI applications, yet their deployment remains challenging due to their immense inference costs. Recent studies ameliorate the computational costs of LLMs by increasing their activation sparsity but suffer from significant performance degradation on downstream tasks. In this work, we introduce a new framework for sparsifying the activations of base LLMs and reducing inference costs, dubbed Contextually Aware Thresholding for Sparsity (CATS). CATS is relatively simple, easy to implement, and highly effective. At the heart of our framework is a new non-linear activation function. We demonstrate that CATS can be applied to various base models, including Mistral-7B and Llama2-7B, and outperforms existing sparsification techniques in downstream task performance. More precisely, CATS-based models often achieve downstream task performance within 1-2% of their base models without any fine-tuning and even at activation sparsity levels of 50%. Furthermore, CATS-based models converge faster and display better task performance than competing techniques when fine-tuning is applied. Finally, we develop a custom GPU kernel for efficient implementation of CATS that translates the activation of sparsity of CATS to real wall-clock time speedups. Our custom kernel implementation of CATS results in a ~15% improvement in wall-clock inference latency of token generation on both Llama-7B and Mistral-7B.
Computing distances and means on manifolds with a metric-constrained Eikonal approach
Authors: Daniel Kelshaw, Luca Magri
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00

Computing distances on Riemannian manifolds is a challenging problem with numerous applications, from physics, through statistics, to machine learning. In this paper, we introduce the metric-constrained Eikonal solver to obtain continuous, differentiable representations of distance functions on manifolds. The differentiable nature of these representations allows for the direct computation of globally length-minimising paths on the manifold. We showcase the use of metric-constrained Eikonal solvers for a range of manifolds and demonstrate the applications. First, we demonstrate that metric-constrained Eikonal solvers can be used to obtain the Fr\'echet mean on a manifold, employing the definition of a Gaussian mixture model, which has an analytical solution to verify the numerical results. Second, we demonstrate how the obtained distance function can be used to conduct unsupervised clustering on the manifold -- a task for which existing approaches are computationally prohibitive. This work opens opportunities for distance computations on manifolds.
FastLogAD: Log Anomaly Detection with Mask-Guided Pseudo Anomaly Generation and Discrimination
Authors: Yifei Lin, Hanqiu Deng, Xingyu Li
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Anomaly Detection, Model Optimization

Nowadays large computers extensively output logs to record the runtime status and it has become crucial to identify any suspicious or malicious activities from the information provided by the realtime logs. Thus, fast log anomaly detection is a necessary task to be implemented for automating the infeasible manual detection. Most of the existing unsupervised methods are trained only on normal log data, but they usually require either additional abnormal data for hyperparameter selection or auxiliary datasets for discriminative model optimization. In this paper, aiming for a highly effective discriminative model that enables rapid anomaly detection,we propose FastLogAD, a generator-discriminator framework trained to exhibit the capability of generating pseudo-abnormal logs through the Mask-Guided Anomaly Generation (MGAG) model and efficiently identifying the anomalous logs via the Discriminative Abnormality Separation (DAS) model. Particularly, pseudo-abnormal logs are generated by replacing randomly masked tokens in a normal sequence with unlikely candidates. During the discriminative stage, FastLogAD learns a distinct separation between normal and pseudoabnormal samples based on their embedding norms, allowing the selection of a threshold without exposure to any test data and achieving competitive performance. Extensive experiments on several common benchmarks show that our proposed FastLogAD outperforms existing anomaly detection approaches. Furthermore, compared to previous methods, FastLogAD achieves at least x10 speed increase in anomaly detection over prior work. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/YifeiLin0226/FastLogAD.
VADA: a Data-Driven Simulator for Nanopore Sequencing
Authors: Jonas Niederle, Simon Koop, Marc Pagès-Gallego, Vlado Menkovski
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00

Nanopore sequencing offers the ability for real-time analysis of long DNA sequences at a low cost, enabling new applications such as early detection of cancer. Due to the complex nature of nanopore measurements and the high cost of obtaining ground truth datasets, there is a need for nanopore simulators. Existing simulators rely on handcrafted rules and parameters and do not learn an internal representation that would allow for analysing underlying biological factors of interest. Instead, we propose VADA, a purely data-driven method for simulating nanopores based on an autoregressive latent variable model. We embed subsequences of DNA and introduce a conditional prior to address the challenge of a collapsing conditioning. We introduce an auxiliary regressor on the latent variable to encourage our model to learn an informative latent representation. We empirically demonstrate that our model achieves competitive simulation performance on experimental nanopore data. Moreover, we show we have learned an informative latent representation that is predictive of the DNA labels. We hypothesize that other biological factors of interest, beyond the DNA labels, can potentially be extracted from such a learned latent representation.
Exploring Contrastive Learning for Long-Tailed Multi-Label Text Classification
Authors: Alexandre Audibert, Aurélien Gauffre, Massih-Reza Amini
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Contrastive Learning, Multi-class Classification, Multi Label Text Classification, Multi-Label Text Classification, text-classification, Text Classification

Learning an effective representation in multi-label text classification (MLTC) is a significant challenge in NLP. This challenge arises from the inherent complexity of the task, which is shaped by two key factors: the intricate connections between labels and the widespread long-tailed distribution of the data. To overcome this issue, one potential approach involves integrating supervised contrastive learning with classical supervised loss functions. Although contrastive learning has shown remarkable performance in multi-class classification, its impact in the multi-label framework has not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth study of supervised contrastive learning and its influence on representation in MLTC context. We emphasize the importance of considering long-tailed data distributions to build a robust representation space, which effectively addresses two critical challenges associated with contrastive learning that we identify: the "lack of positives" and the "attraction-repulsion imbalance". Building on this insight, we introduce a novel contrastive loss function for MLTC. It attains Micro-F1 scores that either match or surpass those obtained with other frequently employed loss functions, and demonstrates a significant improvement in Macro-F1 scores across three multi-label datasets.
State-space systems as dynamic generative models
Authors: Juan-Pablo Ortega, Florian Rossmannek
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00

A probabilistic framework to study the dependence structure induced by deterministic discrete-time state-space systems between input and output processes is introduced. General sufficient conditions are formulated under which output processes exist and are unique once an input process has been fixed, a property that in the deterministic state-space literature is known as the echo state property. When those conditions are satisfied, the given state-space system becomes a generative model for probabilistic dependences between two sequence spaces. Moreover, those conditions guarantee that the output depends continuously on the input when using the Wasserstein metric. The output processes whose existence is proved are shown to be causal in a specific sense and to generalize those studied in purely deterministic situations. The results in this paper constitute a significant stochastic generalization of sufficient conditions for the deterministic echo state property to hold, in the sense that the stochastic echo state property can be satisfied under contractivity conditions that are strictly weaker than those in deterministic situations. This means that state-space systems can induce a purely probabilistic dependence structure between input and output sequence spaces even when there is no functional relation between those two spaces.
Differentially Private Log-Location-Scale Regression Using Functional Mechanism
Authors: Jiewen Sheng, Xiaolei Fang
Date: 2024-04-12 00:00:00
Tasks: parameter estimation, regression

This article introduces differentially private log-location-scale (DP-LLS) regression models, which incorporate differential privacy into LLS regression through the functional mechanism. The proposed models are established by injecting noise into the log-likelihood function of LLS regression for perturbed parameter estimation. We will derive the sensitivities utilized to determine the magnitude of the injected noise and prove that the proposed DP-LLS models satisfy $\epsilon$-differential privacy. In addition, we will conduct simulations and case studies to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The findings suggest that predictor dimension, training sample size, and privacy budget are three key factors impacting the performance of the proposed DP-LLS regression models. Moreover, the results indicate that a sufficiently large training dataset is needed to simultaneously ensure decent performance of the proposed models and achieve a satisfactory level of privacy protection.
Survival Prediction Across Diverse Cancer Types Using Neural Networks
Authors: Xu Yan, Weimin WANG, Mingxuan Xiao, Yufeng Li, Min Gao
Date: 2024-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction, Prognosis, Survival Prediction, whole slide images

Gastric cancer and Colon adenocarcinoma represent widespread and challenging malignancies with high mortality rates and complex treatment landscapes. In response to the critical need for accurate prognosis in cancer patients, the medical community has embraced the 5-year survival rate as a vital metric for estimating patient outcomes. This study introduces a pioneering approach to enhance survival prediction models for gastric and Colon adenocarcinoma patients. Leveraging advanced image analysis techniques, we sliced whole slide images (WSI) of these cancers, extracting comprehensive features to capture nuanced tumor characteristics. Subsequently, we constructed patient-level graphs, encapsulating intricate spatial relationships within tumor tissues. These graphs served as inputs for a sophisticated 4-layer graph convolutional neural network (GCN), designed to exploit the inherent connectivity of the data for comprehensive analysis and prediction. By integrating patients' total survival time and survival status, we computed C-index values for gastric cancer and Colon adenocarcinoma, yielding 0.57 and 0.64, respectively. Significantly surpassing previous convolutional neural network models, these results underscore the efficacy of our approach in accurately predicting patient survival outcomes. This research holds profound implications for both the medical and AI communities, offering insights into cancer biology and progression while advancing personalized treatment strategies. Ultimately, our study represents a significant stride in leveraging AI-driven methodologies to revolutionize cancer prognosis and improve patient outcomes on a global scale.
Machine learning and economic forecasting: the role of international trade networks
Authors: Thiago C. Silva, Paulo V. B. Wilhelm, Diego R. Amancio
Date: 2024-04-11 00:00:00

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.