pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Nonconvex Stochastic Optimization under Heavy-Tailed Noises: Optimal Convergence without Gradient Clipping
Authors: Zijian Liu, Zhengyuan Zhou
Date: 2024-12-27 00:00:00
Tasks: Stochastic Optimization

Recently, the study of heavy-tailed noises in first-order nonconvex stochastic optimization has gotten a lot of attention since it was recognized as a more realistic condition as suggested by many empirical observations. Specifically, the stochastic noise (the difference between the stochastic and true gradient) is considered to have only a finite $\mathfrak{p}$-th moment where $\mathfrak{p}\in\left(1,2\right]$ instead of assuming it always satisfies the classical finite variance assumption. To deal with this more challenging setting, people have proposed different algorithms and proved them to converge at an optimal $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{3\mathfrak{p}-2}})$ rate for smooth objectives after $T$ iterations. Notably, all these new-designed algorithms are based on the same technique - gradient clipping. Naturally, one may want to know whether the clipping method is a necessary ingredient and the only way to guarantee convergence under heavy-tailed noises. In this work, by revisiting the existing Batched Normalized Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum (Batched NSGDM) algorithm, we provide the first convergence result under heavy-tailed noises but without gradient clipping. Concretely, we prove that Batched NSGDM can achieve the optimal $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{3\mathfrak{p}-2}})$ rate even under the relaxed smooth condition. More interestingly, we also establish the first $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{2\mathfrak{p}}})$ convergence rate in the case where the tail index $\mathfrak{p}$ is unknown in advance, which is arguably the common scenario in practice.
Uncertainty quantification for improving radiomic-based models in radiation pneumonitis prediction
Authors: Chanon Puttanawarut, Romen Samuel Wabina, Nat Sirirutbunkajorn
Date: 2024-12-27 00:00:00
Tasks: Conformal Prediction, Decision Making, Prediction, regression, Uncertainty Quantification

Background: Radiation pneumonitis is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, machine learning models with radiomic features have improved radiation pneumonitis prediction by capturing spatial information. To further support clinical decision-making, this study explores the role of post hoc uncertainty quantification methods in enhancing model uncertainty estimate. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 101 esophageal cancer patients. This study evaluated four machine learning models: logistic regression, support vector machines, extreme gradient boosting, and random forest, using 15 dosimetric, 79 dosiomic, and 237 radiomic features to predict radiation pneumonitis. We applied uncertainty quantification methods, including Platt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and conformal prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), and adaptive calibration error using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: Highest AUROC is achieved by the logistic regression model with the conformal prediction method (AUROC 0.75+-0.01, AUPRC 0.74+-0.01) at a certainty cut point of 0.8. Highest AUPRC of 0.82+-0.02 (with AUROC of 0.67+-0.04) achieved by The extreme gradient boosting model with conformal prediction at the 0.9 certainty threshold. Radiomic and dosiomic features improve both discriminative and calibration performance. Conclusions: Integrating uncertainty quantification into machine learning models with radiomic and dosiomic features may improve both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of uncertainty quantification methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for radiation pneumonitis in healthcare settings.
Towards Simple and Provable Parameter-Free Adaptive Gradient Methods
Authors: Yuanzhe Tao, Huizhuo Yuan, Xun Zhou, Yuan Cao, Quanquan Gu
Date: 2024-12-27 00:00:00

Optimization algorithms such as AdaGrad and Adam have significantly advanced the training of deep models by dynamically adjusting the learning rate during the optimization process. However, adhoc tuning of learning rates poses a challenge, leading to inefficiencies in practice. To address this issue, recent research has focused on developing "learning-rate-free" or "parameter-free" algorithms that operate effectively without the need for learning rate tuning. Despite these efforts, existing parameter-free variants of AdaGrad and Adam tend to be overly complex and/or lack formal convergence guarantees. In this paper, we present AdaGrad++ and Adam++, novel and simple parameter-free variants of AdaGrad and Adam with convergence guarantees. We prove that AdaGrad++ achieves comparable convergence rates to AdaGrad in convex optimization without predefined learning rate assumptions. Similarly, Adam++ matches the convergence rate of Adam without relying on any conditions on the learning rates. Experimental results across various deep learning tasks validate the competitive performance of AdaGrad++ and Adam++.
Comparative Performance Analysis of Quantum Machine Learning Architectures for Credit Card Fraud Detection
Authors: Mansour El Alami, Nouhaila Innan, Muhammad Shafique, Mohamed Bennai
Date: 2024-12-27 00:00:00
Tasks: Fraud Detection, Quantum Machine Learning

As financial fraud becomes increasingly complex, effective detection methods are essential. Quantum Machine Learning (QML) introduces certain capabilities that may enhance both accuracy and efficiency in this area. This study examines how different quantum feature map and ansatz configurations affect the performance of three QML-based classifiers-the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC), the Sampler Quantum Neural Network (SQNN), and the Estimator Quantum Neural Network (EQNN)-when applied to two non-standardized financial fraud datasets. Different quantum feature map and ansatz configurations are evaluated, revealing distinct performance patterns. The VQC consistently demonstrates strong classification results, achieving an F1 score of 0.88, while the SQNN also delivers promising outcomes. In contrast, the EQNN struggles to produce robust results, emphasizing the challenges presented by non-standardized data. These findings highlight the importance of careful model configuration in QML-based financial fraud detection. By showing how specific feature maps and ansatz choices influence predictive success, this work guides researchers and practitioners in refining QML approaches for complex financial applications.
Low-Rank Contextual Reinforcement Learning from Heterogeneous Human Feedback
Authors: Seong Jin Lee, Will Wei Sun, Yufeng Liu
Date: 2024-12-27 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a cornerstone for aligning large language models with human preferences. However, the heterogeneity of human feedback, driven by diverse individual contexts and preferences, poses significant challenges for reward learning. To address this, we propose a Low-rank Contextual RLHF (LoCo-RLHF) framework that integrates contextual information to better model heterogeneous feedback while maintaining computational efficiency. Our approach builds on a contextual preference model, leveraging the intrinsic low-rank structure of the interaction between user contexts and query-answer pairs to mitigate the high dimensionality of feature representations. Furthermore, we address the challenge of distributional shifts in feedback through our Pessimism in Reduced Subspace (PRS) policy, inspired by pessimistic offline reinforcement learning techniques. We theoretically demonstrate that our policy achieves a tighter sub-optimality gap compared to existing methods. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of LoCo-RLHF, showcasing its superior performance in personalized RLHF settings and its robustness to distribution shifts.
Asymptotically Optimal Search for a Change Point Anomaly under a Composite Hypothesis Model
Authors: Liad Lea Didi, Tomer Gafni, Kobi Cohen
Date: 2024-12-27 00:00:00

We address the problem of searching for a change point in an anomalous process among a finite set of M processes. Specifically, we address a composite hypothesis model in which each process generates measurements following a common distribution with an unknown parameter (vector). This parameter belongs to either a normal or abnormal space depending on the current state of the process. Before the change point, all processes, including the anomalous one, are in a normal state; after the change point, the anomalous process transitions to an abnormal state. Our goal is to design a sequential search strategy that minimizes the Bayes risk by balancing sample complexity and detection accuracy. We propose a deterministic search algorithm with the following notable properties. First, we analytically demonstrate that when the distributions of both normal and abnormal processes are unknown, the algorithm is asymptotically optimal in minimizing the Bayes risk as the error probability approaches zero. In the second setting, where the parameter under the null hypothesis is known, the algorithm achieves asymptotic optimality with improved detection time based on the true normal state. Simulation results are presented to validate the theoretical findings.
Minimal Batch Adaptive Learning Policy Engine for Real-Time Mid-Price Forecasting in High-Frequency Trading
Authors: Adamantios Ntakaris, Gbenga Ibikunle
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Feature Importance, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

High-frequency trading (HFT) has transformed modern financial markets, making reliable short-term price forecasting models essential. In this study, we present a novel approach to mid-price forecasting using Level 1 limit order book (LOB) data from NASDAQ, focusing on 100 U.S. stocks from the S&P 500 index during the period from September to November 2022. Expanding on our previous work with Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN), which leveraged automated feature importance techniques based on mean decrease impurity (MDI) and gradient descent (GD), we introduce the Adaptive Learning Policy Engine (ALPE) - a reinforcement learning (RL)-based agent designed for batch-free, immediate mid-price forecasting. ALPE incorporates adaptive epsilon decay to dynamically balance exploration and exploitation, outperforming a diverse range of highly effective machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models in forecasting performance.
Deep learning and whole-brain networks for biomarker discovery: modeling the dynamics of brain fluctuations in resting-state and cognitive tasks
Authors: Facundo Roffet, Gustavo Deco, Claudio Delrieux, Gustavo Patow
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Parameter Prediction

Background: Brain network models offer insights into brain dynamics, but the utility of model-derived bifurcation parameters as biomarkers remains underexplored. Objective: This study evaluates bifurcation parameters from a whole-brain network model as biomarkers for distinguishing brain states associated with resting-state and task-based cognitive conditions. Methods: Synthetic BOLD signals were generated using a supercritical Hopf brain network model to train deep learning models for bifurcation parameter prediction. Inference was performed on Human Connectome Project data, including both resting-state and task-based conditions. Statistical analyses assessed the separability of brain states based on bifurcation parameter distributions. Results: Bifurcation parameter distributions differed significantly across task and resting-state conditions ($p < 0.0001$ for all but one comparison). Task-based brain states exhibited higher bifurcation values compared to rest. Conclusion: Bifurcation parameters effectively differentiate cognitive and resting states, warranting further investigation as biomarkers for brain state characterization and neurological disorder assessment.
Learning Broken Symmetries with Approximate Invariance
Authors: Seth Nabat, Aishik Ghosh, Edmund Witkowski, Gregor Kasieczka, Daniel Whiteson
Date: 2024-12-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Data Augmentation

Recognizing symmetries in data allows for significant boosts in neural network training, which is especially important where training data are limited. In many cases, however, the exact underlying symmetry is present only in an idealized dataset, and is broken in actual data, due to asymmetries in the detector, or varying response resolution as a function of particle momentum. Standard approaches, such as data augmentation or equivariant networks fail to represent the nature of the full, broken symmetry, effectively overconstraining the response of the neural network. We propose a learning model which balances the generality and asymptotic performance of unconstrained networks with the rapid learning of constrained networks. This is achieved through a dual-subnet structure, where one network is constrained by the symmetry and the other is not, along with a learned symmetry factor. In a simplified toy example that demonstrates violation of Lorentz invariance, our model learns as rapidly as symmetry-constrained networks but escapes its performance limitations.
Adaptive Conformal Inference by Betting
Authors: Aleksandr Podkopaev, Darren Xu, Kuang-Chih Lee
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Conformal Prediction

Conformal prediction is a valuable tool for quantifying predictive uncertainty of machine learning models. However, its applicability relies on the assumption of data exchangeability, a condition which is often not met in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we consider the problem of adaptive conformal inference without any assumptions about the data generating process. Existing approaches for adaptive conformal inference are based on optimizing the pinball loss using variants of online gradient descent. A notable shortcoming of such approaches is in their explicit dependence on and sensitivity to the choice of the learning rates. In this paper, we propose a different approach for adaptive conformal inference that leverages parameter-free online convex optimization techniques. We prove that our method controls long-term miscoverage frequency at a nominal level and demonstrate its convincing empirical performance without any need of performing cumbersome parameter tuning.
Optimizing Multi-Stage Language Models for Effective Text Retrieval
Authors: Quang Hoang Trung, Le Trung Hoang, Nguyen Van Hoang Phuc
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Retrieval, Text Retrieval

Efficient text retrieval is critical for applications such as legal document analysis, particularly in specialized contexts like Japanese legal systems. Existing retrieval methods often underperform in such domain-specific scenarios, necessitating tailored approaches. In this paper, we introduce a novel two-phase text retrieval pipeline optimized for Japanese legal datasets. Our method leverages advanced language models to achieve state-of-the-art performance, significantly improving retrieval efficiency and accuracy. To further enhance robustness and adaptability, we incorporate an ensemble model that integrates multiple retrieval strategies, resulting in superior outcomes across diverse tasks. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating strong performance on both Japanese legal datasets and widely recognized benchmarks like MS-MARCO. Our work establishes new standards for text retrieval in domain-specific and general contexts, providing a comprehensive solution for addressing complex queries in legal and multilingual environments.
Multi-matrix Factorization Attention
Authors: Jingcheng Hu, Houyi Li, Yinmin Zhang, Zili Wang, Shuigeng Zhou, Xiangyu Zhang, Heung-Yeung Shum, Daxin Jiang
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00

We propose novel attention architectures, Multi-matrix Factorization Attention (MFA) and MFA-Key-Reuse (MFA-KR). Existing variants for standard Multi-Head Attention (MHA), including SOTA methods like MLA, fail to maintain as strong performance under stringent Key-Value cache (KV cache) constraints. MFA enhances model capacity by efficiently scaling up both the number and dimension of attention heads through low-rank matrix factorization in the Query-Key (QK) circuit. Extending MFA, MFA-KR further reduces memory requirements by repurposing the key cache as value through value projection re-parameterization. MFA's design enables strong model capacity when working under tight KV cache budget, while MFA-KR is suitable for even harsher KV cache limits with minor performance trade-off. Notably, in our extensive and large-scale experiments, the proposed architecture outperforms MLA and performs comparably to MHA, while reducing KV cache usage by up to 56% and 93.7%, respectively.
Localized exploration in contextual dynamic pricing achieves dimension-free regret
Authors: Jinhang Chai, Yaqi Duan, Jianqing Fan, Kaizheng Wang
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00

We study the problem of contextual dynamic pricing with a linear demand model. We propose a novel localized exploration-then-commit (LetC) algorithm which starts with a pure exploration stage, followed by a refinement stage that explores near the learned optimal pricing policy, and finally enters a pure exploitation stage. The algorithm is shown to achieve a minimax optimal, dimension-free regret bound when the time horizon exceeds a polynomial of the covariate dimension. Furthermore, we provide a general theoretical framework that encompasses the entire time spectrum, demonstrating how to balance exploration and exploitation when the horizon is limited. The analysis is powered by a novel critical inequality that depicts the exploration-exploitation trade-off in dynamic pricing, mirroring its existing counterpart for the bias-variance trade-off in regularized regression. Our theoretical results are validated by extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data.
Sentiment trading with large language models
Authors: Kemal Kirtac, Guido Germano
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Articles, Financial Analysis, Sentiment Analysis

We investigate the efficacy of large language models (LLMs) in sentiment analysis of U.S. financial news and their potential in predicting stock market returns. We analyze a dataset comprising 965,375 news articles that span from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2023; we focus on the performance of various LLMs, including BERT, OPT, FINBERT, and the traditional Loughran-McDonald dictionary model, which has been a dominant methodology in the finance literature. The study documents a significant association between LLM scores and subsequent daily stock returns. Specifically, OPT, which is a GPT-3 based LLM, shows the highest accuracy in sentiment prediction with an accuracy of 74.4%, slightly ahead of BERT (72.5%) and FINBERT (72.2%). In contrast, the Loughran-McDonald dictionary model demonstrates considerably lower effectiveness with only 50.1% accuracy. Regression analyses highlight a robust positive impact of OPT model scores on next-day stock returns, with coefficients of 0.274 and 0.254 in different model specifications. BERT and FINBERT also exhibit predictive relevance, though to a lesser extent. Notably, we do not observe a significant relationship between the Loughran-McDonald dictionary model scores and stock returns, challenging the efficacy of this traditional method in the current financial context. In portfolio performance, the long-short OPT strategy excels with a Sharpe ratio of 3.05, compared to 2.11 for BERT and 2.07 for FINBERT long-short strategies. Strategies based on the Loughran-McDonald dictionary yield the lowest Sharpe ratio of 1.23. Our findings emphasize the superior performance of advanced LLMs, especially OPT, in financial market prediction and portfolio management, marking a significant shift in the landscape of financial analysis tools with implications to financial regulation and policy analysis.
Multi-view Fake News Detection Model Based on Dynamic Hypergraph
Authors: Rongping Ye, Xiaobing Pei
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Contrastive Learning, Fake News Detection

With the rapid development of online social networks and the inadequacies in content moderation mechanisms, the detection of fake news has emerged as a pressing concern for the public. Various methods have been proposed for fake news detection, including text-based approaches as well as a series of graph-based approaches. However, the deceptive nature of fake news renders text-based approaches less effective. Propagation tree-based methods focus on the propagation process of individual news, capturing pairwise relationships but lacking the capability to capture high-order complex relationships. Large heterogeneous graph-based approaches necessitate the incorporation of substantial additional information beyond news text and user data, while hypergraph-based approaches rely on predefined hypergraph structures. To tackle these issues, we propose a novel dynamic hypergraph-based multi-view fake news detection model (DHy-MFND) that learns news embeddings across three distinct views: text-level, propagation tree-level, and hypergraph-level. By employing hypergraph structures to model complex high-order relationships among multiple news pieces and introducing dynamic hypergraph structure learning, we optimize predefined hypergraph structures while learning news embeddings. Additionally, we introduce contrastive learning to capture authenticity-relevant embeddings across different views. Extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed DHy-MFND compared with a broad range of competing baselines.
Applying the maximum entropy principle to neural networks enhances multi-species distribution models
Authors: Maxime Ryckewaert, Diego Marcos, Christophe Botella, Maximilien Servajean, Pierre Bonnet, Alexis Joly
Date: 2024-12-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Point Processes

The rapid expansion of citizen science initiatives has led to a significant growth of biodiversity databases, and particularly presence-only (PO) observations. PO data are invaluable for understanding species distributions and their dynamics, but their use in a Species Distribution Model (SDM) is curtailed by sampling biases and the lack of information on absences. Poisson point processes are widely used for SDMs, with Maxent being one of the most popular methods. Maxent maximises the entropy of a probability distribution across sites as a function of predefined transformations of variables, called features. In contrast, neural networks and deep learning have emerged as a promising technique for automatic feature extraction from complex input variables. Arbitrarily complex transformations of input variables can be learned from the data efficiently through backpropagation and stochastic gradient descent (SGD). In this paper, we propose DeepMaxent, which harnesses neural networks to automatically learn shared features among species, using the maximum entropy principle. To do so, it employs a normalised Poisson loss where for each species, presence probabilities across sites are modelled by a neural network. We evaluate DeepMaxent on a benchmark dataset known for its spatial sampling biases, using PO data for calibration and presence-absence (PA) data for validation across six regions with different biological groups and covariates. Our results indicate that DeepMaxent performs better than Maxent and other leading SDMs across all regions and taxonomic groups. The method performs particularly well in regions of uneven sampling, demonstrating substantial potential to increase SDM performances. In particular, our approach yields more accurate predictions than traditional single-species models, which opens up new possibilities for methodological enhancement.