pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Posterior SBC: Simulation-Based Calibration Checking Conditional on Data
Authors: Teemu Säilynoja, Marvin Schmitt, Paul-Christian Bürkner, Aki Vehtari
Date: 2025-02-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference

Simulation-based calibration checking (SBC) refers to the validation of an inference algorithm and model implementation through repeated inference on data simulated from a generative model. In the original and commonly used approach, the generative model uses parameters drawn from the prior, and thus the approach is testing whether the inference works for simulated data generated with parameter values plausible under that prior. This approach is natural and desirable when we want to test whether the inference works for a wide range of datasets we might observe. However, after observing data, we are interested in answering whether the inference works conditional on that particular data. In this paper, we propose posterior SBC and demonstrate how it can be used to validate the inference conditionally on observed data. We illustrate the utility of posterior SBC in three case studies: (1) A simple multilevel model; (2) a model that is governed by differential equations; and (3) a joint integrative neuroscience model which is approximated via amortized Bayesian inference with neural networks.
Self-supervised Conformal Prediction for Uncertainty Quantification in Imaging Problems
Authors: Jasper M. Everink, Bernardin Tamo Amougou, Marcelo Pereyra
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Conformal Prediction, Deblurring, Denoising, Image Denoising, Image Restoration, Prediction, Uncertainty Quantification

Most image restoration problems are ill-conditioned or ill-posed and hence involve significant uncertainty. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial for reliably interpreting experimental results, particularly when reconstructed images inform critical decisions and science. However, most existing image restoration methods either fail to quantify uncertainty or provide estimates that are highly inaccurate. Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a flexible framework to equip any estimator with uncertainty quantification capabilities that, by construction, have nearly exact marginal coverage. To achieve this, conformal prediction relies on abundant ground truth data for calibration. However, in image restoration problems, reliable ground truth data is often expensive or not possible to acquire. Also, reliance on ground truth data can introduce large biases in situations of distribution shift between calibration and deployment. This paper seeks to develop a more robust approach to conformal prediction for image restoration problems by proposing a self-supervised conformal prediction method that leverages Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) to self-calibrate itself directly from the observed noisy measurements, bypassing the need for ground truth. The method is suitable for any linear imaging inverse problem that is ill-conditioned, and it is especially powerful when used with modern self-supervised image restoration techniques that can also be trained directly from measurement data. The proposed approach is demonstrated through numerical experiments on image denoising and deblurring, where it delivers results that are remarkably accurate and comparable to those obtained by supervised conformal prediction with ground truth data.
Distinguishing Cause from Effect with Causal Velocity Models
Authors: Johnny Xi, Hugh Dance, Peter Orbanz, Benjamin Bloem-Reddy
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Discovery, counterfactual

Bivariate structural causal models (SCM) are often used to infer causal direction by examining their goodness-of-fit under restricted model classes. In this paper, we describe a parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of a causal velocity by viewing the cause variable as time in a dynamical system. The velocity implicitly defines counterfactual curves via the solution of initial value problems where the observation specifies the initial condition. Using tools from measure transport, we obtain a unique correspondence between SCMs and the score function of the generated distribution via its causal velocity. Based on this, we derive an objective function that directly regresses the velocity against the score function, the latter of which can be estimated non-parametrically from observational data. We use this to develop a method for bivariate causal discovery that extends beyond known model classes such as additive or location scale noise, and that requires no assumptions on the noise distributions. When the score is estimated well, the objective is also useful for detecting model non-identifiability and misspecification. We present positive results in simulation and benchmark experiments where many existing methods fail, and perform ablation studies to examine the method's sensitivity to accurate score estimation.
Does Unsupervised Domain Adaptation Improve the Robustness of Amortized Bayesian Inference? A Systematic Evaluation
Authors: Lasse Elsemüller, Valentin Pratz, Mischa von Krause, Andreas Voss, Paul-Christian Bürkner, Stefan T. Radev
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference, Domain Adaptation, Unsupervised Domain Adaptation

Neural networks are fragile when confronted with data that significantly deviates from their training distribution. This is true in particular for simulation-based inference methods, such as neural amortized Bayesian inference (ABI), where models trained on simulated data are deployed on noisy real-world observations. Recent robust approaches employ unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) to match the embedding spaces of simulated and observed data. However, the lack of comprehensive evaluations across different domain mismatches raises concerns about the reliability in high-stakes applications. We address this gap by systematically testing UDA approaches across a wide range of misspecification scenarios in silico and practice. We demonstrate that aligning summary spaces between domains effectively mitigates the impact of unmodeled phenomena or noise. However, the same alignment mechanism can lead to failures under prior misspecifications - a critical finding with practical consequences. Our results underscore the need for careful consideration of misspecification types when using UDA to increase the robustness of ABI.
Robust Conformal Outlier Detection under Contaminated Reference Data
Authors: Meshi Bashari, Matteo Sesia, Yaniv Romano
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Conformal Prediction, Outlier Detection

Conformal prediction is a flexible framework for calibrating machine learning predictions, providing distribution-free statistical guarantees. In outlier detection, this calibration relies on a reference set of labeled inlier data to control the type-I error rate. However, obtaining a perfectly labeled inlier reference set is often unrealistic, and a more practical scenario involves access to a contaminated reference set containing a small fraction of outliers. This paper analyzes the impact of such contamination on the validity of conformal methods. We prove that under realistic, non-adversarial settings, calibration on contaminated data yields conservative type-I error control, shedding light on the inherent robustness of conformal methods. This conservativeness, however, typically results in a loss of power. To alleviate this limitation, we propose a novel, active data-cleaning framework that leverages a limited labeling budget and an outlier detection model to selectively annotate data points in the contaminated reference set that are suspected as outliers. By removing only the annotated outliers in this ``suspicious'' subset, we can effectively enhance power while mitigating the risk of inflating the type-I error rate, as supported by our theoretical analysis. Experiments on real datasets validate the conservative behavior of conformal methods under contamination and show that the proposed data-cleaning strategy improves power without sacrificing validity.
$t$-Testing the Waters: Empirically Validating Assumptions for Reliable A/B-Testing
Authors: Olivier Jeunen
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Experimental Design, valid

A/B-tests are a cornerstone of experimental design on the web, with wide-ranging applications and use-cases. The statistical $t$-test comparing differences in means is the most commonly used method for assessing treatment effects, often justified through the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). The CLT ascertains that, as the sample size grows, the sampling distribution of the Average Treatment Effect converges to normality, making the $t$-test valid for sufficiently large sample sizes. When outcome measures are skewed or non-normal, quantifying what "sufficiently large" entails is not straightforward. To ensure that confidence intervals maintain proper coverage and that $p$-values accurately reflect the false positive rate, it is critical to validate this normality assumption. We propose a practical method to test this, by analysing repeatedly resampled A/A-tests. When the normality assumption holds, the resulting $p$-value distribution should be uniform, and this property can be tested using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This provides an efficient and effective way to empirically assess whether the $t$-test's assumptions are met, and the A/B-test is valid. We demonstrate our methodology and highlight how it helps to identify scenarios prone to inflated Type-I errors. Our approach provides a practical framework to ensure and improve the reliability and robustness of A/B-testing practices.
Optimistic Algorithms for Adaptive Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect
Authors: Ojash Neopane, Aaditya Ramdas, Aarti Singh
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference

Estimation and inference for the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a cornerstone of causal inference and often serves as the foundation for developing procedures for more complicated settings. Although traditionally analyzed in a batch setting, recent advances in martingale theory have paved the way for adaptive methods that can enhance the power of downstream inference. Despite these advances, progress in understanding and developing adaptive algorithms remains in its early stages. Existing work either focus on asymptotic analyses that overlook exploration-exploitation tradeoffs relevant in finite-sample regimes or rely on simpler but suboptimal estimators. In this work, we address these limitations by studying adaptive sampling procedures that take advantage of the asymptotically optimal Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) estimator. Our analysis uncovers challenges obscured by asymptotic approaches and introduces a novel algorithmic design principle reminiscent of optimism in multiarmed bandits. This principled approach enables our algorithm to achieve significant theoretical and empirical gains compared to prior methods. Our findings mark a step forward in advancing adaptive causal inference methods in theory and practice.
Prediction-Powered E-Values
Authors: Daniel Csillag, Claudio José Struchiner, Guilherme Tegoni Goedert
Date: 2025-02-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Discovery, Change Point Detection, Prediction

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to Z-estimation problems such as inference of means and quantiles. In this paper, we apply ideas of prediction-powered inference to e-values. By doing so, we inherit all the usual benefits of e-values -- such as anytime-validity, post-hoc validity and versatile sequential inference -- as well as greatly expand the set of inferences achievable in a prediction-powered manner. In particular, we show that every inference procedure that can be framed in terms of e-values has a prediction-powered counterpart, given by our method. We showcase the effectiveness of our framework across a wide range of inference tasks, from simple hypothesis testing and confidence intervals to more involved procedures for change-point detection and causal discovery, which were out of reach of previous techniques. Our approach is modular and easily integrable into existing algorithms, making it a compelling choice for practical applications.
Learning Semantics-aware Search Operators for Genetic Programming
Authors: Piotr Wyrwiński, Krzysztof Krawiec
Date: 2025-02-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Graph Neural Network, Program Synthesis, Symbolic Regression

Fitness landscapes in test-based program synthesis are known to be extremely rugged, with even minimal modifications of programs often leading to fundamental changes in their behavior and, consequently, fitness values. Relying on fitness as the only guidance in iterative search algorithms like genetic programming is thus unnecessarily limiting, especially when combined with purely syntactic search operators that are agnostic about their impact on program behavior. In this study, we propose a semantics-aware search operator that steers the search towards candidate programs that are valuable not only actually (high fitness) but also only potentially, i.e. are likely to be turned into high-quality solutions even if their current fitness is low. The key component of the method is a graph neural network that learns to model the interactions between program instructions and processed data, and produces a saliency map over graph nodes that represents possible search decisions. When applied to a suite of symbolic regression benchmarks, the proposed method outperforms conventional tree-based genetic programming and the ablated variant of the method.
The $α$-Alternator: Dynamic Adaptation To Varying Noise Levels In Sequences Using The Vendi Score For Improved Robustness and Performance
Authors: Mohammad Reza Rezaei, Adji Bousso Dieng
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Imputation, Mamba, State Space Models, Time Series Forecasting, Trajectory Prediction

Current state-of-the-art dynamical models, such as Mamba, assume the same level of noisiness for all elements of a given sequence, which limits their performance on noisy temporal data. In this paper, we introduce the $\alpha$-Alternator, a novel generative model for time-dependent data that dynamically adapts to the complexity introduced by varying noise levels in sequences. The $\alpha$-Alternator leverages the Vendi Score (VS), a flexible similarity-based diversity metric, to adjust, at each time step $t$, the influence of the sequence element at time $t$ and the latent representation of the dynamics up to that time step on the predicted future dynamics. This influence is captured by a parameter that is learned and shared across all sequences in a given dataset. The sign of this parameter determines the direction of influence. A negative value indicates a noisy dataset, where a sequence element that increases the VS is considered noisy, and the model relies more on the latent history when processing that element. Conversely, when the parameter is positive, a sequence element that increases the VS is considered informative, and the $\alpha$-Alternator relies more on this new input than on the latent history when updating its predicted latent dynamics. The $\alpha$-Alternator is trained using a combination of observation masking and Alternator loss minimization. Masking simulates varying noise levels in sequences, enabling the model to be more robust to these fluctuations and improving its performance in trajectory prediction, imputation, and forecasting. Our experimental results demonstrate that the $\alpha$-Alternator outperforms both Alternators and state-of-the-art state-space models across neural decoding and time-series forecasting benchmarks.
Beyond Interpolation: Extrapolative Reasoning with Reinforcement Learning and Graph Neural Networks
Authors: Niccolò Grillo, Andrea Toccaceli, Joël Mathys, Benjamin Estermann, Stefania Fresca, Roger Wattenhofer
Date: 2025-02-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Inductive Bias

Despite incredible progress, many neural architectures fail to properly generalize beyond their training distribution. As such, learning to reason in a correct and generalizable way is one of the current fundamental challenges in machine learning. In this respect, logic puzzles provide a great testbed, as we can fully understand and control the learning environment. Thus, they allow to evaluate performance on previously unseen, larger and more difficult puzzles that follow the same underlying rules. Since traditional approaches often struggle to represent such scalable logical structures, we propose to model these puzzles using a graph-based approach. Then, we investigate the key factors enabling the proposed models to learn generalizable solutions in a reinforcement learning setting. Our study focuses on the impact of the inductive bias of the architecture, different reward systems and the role of recurrent modeling in enabling sequential reasoning. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate how these elements contribute to successful extrapolation on increasingly complex puzzles.These insights and frameworks offer a systematic way to design learning-based systems capable of generalizable reasoning beyond interpolation.
FAS: Fast ANN-SNN Conversion for Spiking Large Language Models
Authors: Long Chen, Xiaotian Song, Andy Song, Badong Chen, Jiancheng Lv, Yanan sun
Date: 2025-02-06 00:00:00

Spiking Large Language Models have been shown as a good alternative to LLMs in various scenarios. Existing methods for creating Spiking LLMs, i.e., direct training and ANN-SNN conversion, often suffer from performance degradation and relatively high computational costs. To address these issues, we propose a novel Fast ANN-SNN conversion strategy (FAS) that transforms LLMs into spiking LLMs in two stages. The first stage employs a full-parameter fine-tuning of pre-trained models, so it does not need any direct training from scratch. The second stage introduces a coarse-to-fine calibration method to reduce conversion errors and improve accuracy. Experiments on both language and vision-language tasks across four different scales of LLMs demonstrate that FAS can achieve state-of-the-art performance yet with significantly reduced inference latency and computational costs. Notably, FAS only takes eight timesteps to achieve an accuracy of 3\% higher than that of the OPT-7B model, while reducing energy consumption by 96.63\%. The source code is available at https://github.com/lc783/FAS
Illuminating Spaces: Deep Reinforcement Learning and Laser-Wall Partitioning for Architectural Layout Generation
Authors: Reza kakooee, Benjamin Dillenburger
Date: 2025-02-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Reinforcement Learning, Layout Design, Layout Generation, OpenAI Gym, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Space layout design (SLD), occurring in the early stages of the design process, nonetheless influences both the functionality and aesthetics of the ultimate architectural outcome. The complexity of SLD necessitates innovative approaches to efficiently explore vast solution spaces. While image-based generative AI has emerged as a potential solution, they often rely on pixel-based space composition methods that lack intuitive representation of architectural processes. This paper leverages deep Reinforcement Learning (RL), as it offers a procedural approach that intuitively mimics the process of human designers. Effectively using RL for SLD requires an explorative space composing method to generate desirable design solutions. We introduce "laser-wall", a novel space partitioning method that conceptualizes walls as emitters of imaginary light beams to partition spaces. This approach bridges vector-based and pixel-based partitioning methods, offering both flexibility and exploratory power in generating diverse layouts. We present two planning strategies: one-shot planning, which generates entire layouts in a single pass, and dynamic planning, which allows for adaptive refinement by continuously transforming laser-walls. Additionally, we introduce on-light and off-light wall transformations for smooth and fast layout refinement, as well as identity-less and identity-full walls for versatile room assignment. We developed SpaceLayoutGym, an open-source OpenAI Gym compatible simulator for generating and evaluating space layouts. The RL agent processes the input design scenarios and generates solutions following a reward function that balances geometrical and topological requirements. Our results demonstrate that the RL-based laser-wall approach can generate diverse and functional space layouts that satisfy both geometric constraints and topological requirements and is architecturally intuitive.
Transforming Multimodal Models into Action Models for Radiotherapy
Authors: Matteo Ferrante, Alessandra Carosi, Rolando Maria D Angelillo, Nicola Toschi
Date: 2025-02-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Anatomy, Few-Shot Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Radiotherapy is a crucial cancer treatment that demands precise planning to balance tumor eradication and preservation of healthy tissue. Traditional treatment planning (TP) is iterative, time-consuming, and reliant on human expertise, which can potentially introduce variability and inefficiency. We propose a novel framework to transform a large multimodal foundation model (MLM) into an action model for TP using a few-shot reinforcement learning (RL) approach. Our method leverages the MLM's extensive pre-existing knowledge of physics, radiation, and anatomy, enhancing it through a few-shot learning process. This allows the model to iteratively improve treatment plans using a Monte Carlo simulator. Our results demonstrate that this method outperforms conventional RL-based approaches in both quality and efficiency, achieving higher reward scores and more optimal dose distributions in simulations on prostate cancer data. This proof-of-concept suggests a promising direction for integrating advanced AI models into clinical workflows, potentially enhancing the speed, quality, and standardization of radiotherapy treatment planning.
Mediator: Memory-efficient LLM Merging with Less Parameter Conflicts and Uncertainty Based Routing
Authors: Kunfeng Lai, Zhenheng Tang, Xinglin Pan, Peijie Dong, Xiang Liu, Haolan Chen, Li Shen, Bo Li, Xiaowen Chu
Date: 2025-02-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Task Arithmetic

Model merging aggregates Large Language Models (LLMs) finetuned on different tasks into a stronger one. However, parameter conflicts between models leads to performance degradation in averaging. While model routing addresses this issue by selecting individual models during inference, it imposes excessive storage and compute costs, and fails to leverage the common knowledge from different models. In this work, we observe that different layers exhibit varying levels of parameter conflicts. Building on this insight, we average layers with minimal parameter conflicts and use a novel task-level expert routing for layers with significant conflicts. To further reduce storage costs, inspired by task arithmetic sparsity, we decouple multiple fine-tuned experts into a dense expert and several sparse experts. Considering the out-of-distribution samples, we select and merge appropriate experts based on the task uncertainty of the input data. We conduct extensive experiments on both LLaMA and Qwen with varying parameter scales, and evaluate on real-world reasoning tasks. Results demonstrate that our method consistently achieves significant performance improvements while requiring less system cost compared to existing methods.