pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
The "double" square-root law: Evidence for the mechanical origin of market impact using Tokyo Stock Exchange data
Authors: Guillaume Maitrier, Grégoire Loeper, Kiyoshi Kanazawa, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Date: 2025-02-22 00:00:00

Understanding the impact of trades on prices is a crucial question for both academic research and industry practice. It is well established that impact follows a square-root impact as a function of traded volume. However, the microscopic origin of such a law remains elusive: empirical studies are particularly challenging due to the anonymity of orders in public data. Indeed, there is ongoing debate about whether price impact has a mechanical origin or whether it is primarily driven by information, as suggested by many economic theories. In this paper, we revisit this question using a very detailed dataset provided by the Japanese stock exchange, containing the trader IDs for all orders sent to the exchange between 2012 and 2018. Our central result is that such a law has in fact microscopic roots and applies already at the level of single child orders, provided one waits long enough for the market to "digest" them. The mesoscopic impact of metaorders arises from a "double" square-root effect: square-root in volume of individual impact, followed by an inverse square-root decay as a function of time. Since market orders are anonymous, we expect and indeed find that these results apply to any market orders, and the impact of synthetic metaorders, reconstructed by scrambling the identity of the issuers, is described by the very same square-root impact law. We conclude that price impact is essentially mechanical, at odds with theories that emphasize the information content of such trades to explain the square-root impact law.
LLM Trading: Analysis of LLM Agent Behavior in Experimental Asset Markets
Authors: Thomas Henning, Siddhartha M. Ojha, Ross Spoon, Jiatong Han, Colin F. Camerer
Date: 2025-02-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making

This paper explores how Large Language Models (LLMs) behave in a classic experimental finance paradigm widely known for eliciting bubbles and crashes in human participants. We adapt an established trading design, where traders buy and sell a risky asset with a known fundamental value, and introduce several LLM-based agents, both in single-model markets (all traders are instances of the same LLM) and in mixed-model "battle royale" settings (multiple LLMs competing in the same market). Our findings reveal that LLMs generally exhibit a "textbook-rational" approach, pricing the asset near its fundamental value, and show only a muted tendency toward bubble formation. Further analyses indicate that LLM-based agents display less trading strategy variance in contrast to humans. Taken together, these results highlight the risk of relying on LLM-only data to replicate human-driven market phenomena, as key behavioral features, such as large emergent bubbles, were not robustly reproduced. While LLMs clearly possess the capacity for strategic decision-making, their relative consistency and rationality suggest that they do not accurately mimic human market dynamics.
Differentially private synthesis of Spatial Point Processes
Authors: Dangchan Kim, Chae Young Lim
Date: 2025-02-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Point Processes

This paper proposes a method to generate synthetic data for spatial point patterns within the differential privacy (DP) framework. Specifically, we define a differentially private Poisson point synthesizer (PPS) and Cox point synthesizer (CPS) to generate synthetic point patterns with the concept of the $\alpha$-neighborhood that relaxes the original definition of DP. We present three example models to construct a differentially private PPS and CPS, providing sufficient conditions on their parameters to ensure the DP given a specified privacy budget. In addition, we demonstrate that the synthesizers can be applied to point patterns on the linear network. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the proposed approaches effectively maintain the privacy and utility of synthetic data.
AI-driven 3D Spatial Transcriptomics
Authors: Cristina Almagro-Pérez, Andrew H. Song, Luca Weishaupt, Ahrong Kim, Guillaume Jaume, Drew F. K. Williamson, Konstantin Hemker, Ming Y. Lu, Kritika Singh, Bowen Chen, Long Phi Le, Alexander S. Baras, Sizun Jiang, Ali Bashashati, Jonathan T. C. Liu, Faisal Mahmood
Date: 2025-02-25 00:00:00

A comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) map of tissue architecture and gene expression is crucial for illuminating the complexity and heterogeneity of tissues across diverse biomedical applications. However, most spatial transcriptomics (ST) approaches remain limited to two-dimensional (2D) sections of tissue. Although current 3D ST methods hold promise, they typically require extensive tissue sectioning, are complex, are not compatible with non-destructive 3D tissue imaging technologies, and often lack scalability. Here, we present VOlumetrically Resolved Transcriptomics EXpression (VORTEX), an AI framework that leverages 3D tissue morphology and minimal 2D ST to predict volumetric 3D ST. By pretraining on diverse 3D morphology-transcriptomic pairs from heterogeneous tissue samples and then fine-tuning on minimal 2D ST data from a specific volume of interest, VORTEX learns both generic tissue-related and sample-specific morphological correlates of gene expression. This approach enables dense, high-throughput, and fast 3D ST, scaling seamlessly to large tissue volumes far beyond the reach of existing 3D ST techniques. By offering a cost-effective and minimally destructive route to obtaining volumetric molecular insights, we anticipate that VORTEX will accelerate biomarker discovery and our understanding of morphomolecular associations and cell states in complex tissues. Interactive 3D ST volumes can be viewed at https://vortex-demo.github.io/
StatLLM: A Dataset for Evaluating the Performance of Large Language Models in Statistical Analysis
Authors: Xinyi Song, Lina Lee, Kexin Xie, Xueying Liu, Xinwei Deng, Yili Hong
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00

The coding capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have opened up new opportunities for automatic statistical analysis in machine learning and data science. However, before their widespread adoption, it is crucial to assess the accuracy of code generated by LLMs. A major challenge in this evaluation lies in the absence of a benchmark dataset for statistical code (e.g., SAS and R). To fill in this gap, this paper introduces StatLLM, an open-source dataset for evaluating the performance of LLMs in statistical analysis. The StatLLM dataset comprises three key components: statistical analysis tasks, LLM-generated SAS code, and human evaluation scores. The first component includes statistical analysis tasks spanning a variety of analyses and datasets, providing problem descriptions, dataset details, and human-verified SAS code. The second component features SAS code generated by ChatGPT 3.5, ChatGPT 4.0, and Llama 3.1 for those tasks. The third component contains evaluation scores from human experts in assessing the correctness, effectiveness, readability, executability, and output accuracy of the LLM-generated code. We also illustrate the unique potential of the established benchmark dataset for (1) evaluating and enhancing natural language processing metrics, (2) assessing and improving LLM performance in statistical coding, and (3) developing and testing of next-generation statistical software - advancements that are crucial for data science and machine learning research.
Rapid Parameter Inference with Uncertainty Quantification for a Radiological Plume Source Identification Problem
Authors: Christopher Edwards, Ralph C Smith
Date: 2025-02-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Uncertainty Quantification

In the event of a nuclear accident, or the detonation of a radiological dispersal device, quickly locating the source of the accident or blast is important for emergency response and environmental decontamination. At a specified time after a simulated instantaneous release of an aerosolized radioactive contaminant, measurements are recorded downwind from an array of radiation sensors. Neural networks are employed to infer the source release parameters in an accurate and rapid manner using sensor and mean wind speed data. We consider two neural network constructions that quantify the uncertainty of the predicted values; a categorical classification neural network and a Bayesian neural network. With the categorical classification neural network, we partition the spatial domain and treat each partition as a separate class for which we estimate the probability that it contains the true source location. In a Bayesian neural network, the weights and biases have a distribution rather than a single optimal value. With each evaluation, these distributions are sampled, yielding a different prediction with each evaluation. The trained Bayesian neural network is thus evaluated to construct posterior densities for the release parameters. Results are compared to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) results found using the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis Algorithm. The Bayesian neural network approach is generally much cheaper computationally than the MCMC approach as it relies on the computational cost of the neural network evaluation to generate posterior densities as opposed to the MCMC approach which depends on the computational expense of the transport and radiation detection models.
Near-Optimal Approximations for Bayesian Inference in Function Space
Authors: Veit Wild, James Wu, Dino Sejdinovic, Jeremias Knoblauch
Date: 2025-02-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference

We propose a scalable inference algorithm for Bayes posteriors defined on a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Given a likelihood function and a Gaussian random element representing the prior, the corresponding Bayes posterior measure $\Pi_{\text{B}}$ can be obtained as the stationary distribution of an RKHS-valued Langevin diffusion. We approximate the infinite-dimensional Langevin diffusion via a projection onto the first $M$ components of the Kosambi-Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansion. Exploiting the thus obtained approximate posterior for these $M$ components, we perform inference for $\Pi_{\text{B}}$ by relying on the law of total probability and a sufficiency assumption. The resulting method scales as $O(M^3+JM^2)$, where $J$ is the number of samples produced from the posterior measure $\Pi_{\text{B}}$. Interestingly, the algorithm recovers the posterior arising from the sparse variational Gaussian process (SVGP) (see Titsias, 2009) as a special case, owed to the fact that the sufficiency assumption underlies both methods. However, whereas the SVGP is parametrically constrained to be a Gaussian process, our method is based on a non-parametric variational family $\mathcal{P}(\mathbb{R}^M)$ consisting of all probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^M$. As a result, our method is provably close to the optimal $M$-dimensional variational approximation of the Bayes posterior $\Pi_{\text{B}}$ in $\mathcal{P}(\mathbb{R}^M)$ for convex and Lipschitz continuous negative log likelihoods, and coincides with SVGP for the special case of a Gaussian error likelihood.
Uncertainty Quantification for LLM-Based Survey Simulations
Authors: Chengpiao Huang, Yuhang Wu, Kaizheng Wang
Date: 2025-02-25 00:00:00
Tasks: Survey, Uncertainty Quantification, valid

We investigate the use of large language models (LLMs) to simulate human responses to survey questions, and perform uncertainty quantification to gain reliable insights. Our approach converts imperfect LLM-simulated responses into confidence sets for population parameters of human responses, addressing the distribution shift between the simulated and real populations. A key innovation lies in determining the optimal number of simulated responses: too many produce overly narrow confidence sets with poor coverage, while too few yield excessively loose estimates. To resolve this, our method adaptively selects the simulation sample size, ensuring valid average-case coverage guarantees. It is broadly applicable to any LLM, irrespective of its fidelity, and any procedure for constructing confidence sets. Additionally, the selected sample size quantifies the degree of misalignment between the LLM and the target human population. We illustrate our method on real datasets and LLMs.
Flexible Counterfactual Explanations with Generative Models
Authors: Stig Hellemans, Andres Algaba, Sam Verboven, Vincent Ginis
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual

Counterfactual explanations provide actionable insights to achieve desired outcomes by suggesting minimal changes to input features. However, existing methods rely on fixed sets of mutable features, which makes counterfactual explanations inflexible for users with heterogeneous real-world constraints. Here, we introduce Flexible Counterfactual Explanations, a framework incorporating counterfactual templates, which allows users to dynamically specify mutable features at inference time. In our implementation, we use Generative Adversarial Networks (FCEGAN), which align explanations with user-defined constraints without requiring model retraining or additional optimization. Furthermore, FCEGAN is designed for black-box scenarios, leveraging historical prediction datasets to generate explanations without direct access to model internals. Experiments across economic and healthcare datasets demonstrate that FCEGAN significantly improves counterfactual explanations' validity compared to traditional benchmark methods. By integrating user-driven flexibility and black-box compatibility, counterfactual templates support personalized explanations tailored to user constraints.
Policy Learning with a Natural Language Action Space: A Causal Approach
Authors: Bohan Zhang, Yixin Wang, Paramveer S. Dhillon
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Q-Learning

This paper introduces a novel causal framework for multi-stage decision-making in natural language action spaces where outcomes are only observed after a sequence of actions. While recent approaches like Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) can handle such delayed-reward settings in high-dimensional action spaces, they typically require multiple models (policy, value, and reward) and substantial training data. Our approach employs Q-learning to estimate Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTR) through a single model, enabling data-efficient policy learning via gradient ascent on language embeddings. A key technical contribution of our approach is a decoding strategy that translates optimized embeddings back into coherent natural language. We evaluate our approach on mental health intervention, hate speech countering, and sentiment transfer tasks, demonstrating significant improvements over competitive baselines across multiple metrics. Notably, our method achieves superior transfer strength while maintaining content preservation and fluency, as validated through human evaluation. Our work provides a practical foundation for learning optimal policies in complex language tasks where training data is limited.
Towards Conditioning Clinical Text Generation for User Control
Authors: Osman Alperen Koraş, Rabi Bahnan, Jens Kleesiek, Amin Dada
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Text Generation

Deploying natural language generation systems in clinical settings remains challenging despite advances in Large Language Models (LLMs), which continue to exhibit hallucinations and factual inconsistencies, necessitating human oversight. This paper explores automated dataset augmentation using LLMs as human proxies to condition LLMs for clinician control without increasing cognitive workload. On the BioNLP ACL'24 Discharge Me! Shared Task, we achieve new state-of-the-art results with simpler methods than prior submissions through more efficient training, yielding a 9\% relative improvement without augmented training and up to 34\% with dataset augmentation. Preliminary human evaluation further supports the effectiveness of our approach, highlighting the potential of augmenting clinical text generation for control to enhance relevance, accuracy, and factual consistency.
End-to-End Chart Summarization via Visual Chain-of-Thought in Vision-Language Models
Authors: Raymond Choi, Frank Burns, Chase Lawrence
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Visual Reasoning

Automated chart summarization is crucial for enhancing data accessibility and enabling efficient information extraction from visual data. While recent advances in visual-language models (VLMs) have demonstrated promise, existing methods often suffer from limitations in matching the generated summary to the chart data and in reasoning about complex chart patterns. This paper introduces End-to-End Visual Chain-of-Thought (V-CoT) for chart summarization, a novel approach optimized for Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). Our method directly trains an LVLM to process chart images and generate textual summaries in an end-to-end fashion, eliminating the need for explicit chart parsing modules. We incorporate a visual Chain-of-Thought mechanism through instruction fine-tuning, implicitly guiding the LVLM to perform visual reasoning steps during summary generation. Evaluated on the large-scale Chart-Sum-QA dataset, our V-CoT method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across a range of automatic metrics, including BLEU, BLEURT, CIDEr, and CS, and demonstrates superior matching degree and reasoning correctness in human evaluations. Ablation studies and detailed analyses further validate the effectiveness and robustness of our proposed approach, establishing a new benchmark for end-to-end chart summarization.
Proactive Privacy Amnesia for Large Language Models: Safeguarding PII with Negligible Impact on Model Utility
Authors: Martin Kuo, Jingyang Zhang, Jianyi Zhang, Minxue Tang, Louis DiValentin, Aolin Ding, Jingwei Sun, William Chen, Amin Hass, Tianlong Chen, Yiran Chen, Hai Li
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00

With the rise of large language models (LLMs), increasing research has recognized their risk of leaking personally identifiable information (PII) under malicious attacks. Although efforts have been made to protect PII in LLMs, existing methods struggle to balance privacy protection with maintaining model utility. In this paper, inspired by studies of amnesia in cognitive science, we propose a novel approach, Proactive Privacy Amnesia (PPA), to safeguard PII in LLMs while preserving their utility. This mechanism works by actively identifying and forgetting key memories most closely associated with PII in sequences, followed by a memory implanting using suitable substitute memories to maintain the LLM's functionality. We conduct evaluations across multiple models to protect common PII, such as phone numbers and physical addresses, against prevalent PII-targeted attacks, demonstrating the superiority of our method compared with other existing defensive techniques. The results show that our PPA method completely eliminates the risk of phone number exposure by 100% and significantly reduces the risk of physical address exposure by 9.8% - 87.6%, all while maintaining comparable model utility performance.
MEDA: Dynamic KV Cache Allocation for Efficient Multimodal Long-Context Inference
Authors: Zhongwei Wan, Hui Shen, Xin Wang, Che Liu, Zheda Mai, Mi Zhang
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00

Long-context Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) that incorporate long text-image and text-video modalities, demand substantial resources as their multimodal Key-Value (KV) caches grow with increasing input lengths, challenging inference efficiency. Existing methods for KV cache compression, in both text-only and multimodal LLMs, have neglected attention density variations across layers, thus often adopting uniform or progressive reduction strategies for layer-wise cache allocation. In this work, we propose MEDA, a dynamic layer-wise KV cache allocation method for efficient multimodal long-context inference. As its core, MEDA utilizes cross-modal attention entropy to determine the KV cache size at each MLLMs layer. Given the dynamically allocated KV cache size at each layer, MEDA also employs a KV pair selection scheme to identify which KV pairs to select and a KV pair merging strategy that merges the selected and non-selected ones to preserve information from the entire context. MEDA achieves up to 72% KV cache memory reduction and 2.82 times faster decoding speed, while maintaining or enhancing performance on various multimodal tasks in long-context settings, including multi-images and long-video scenarios. Our code is released at https://github.com/AIoT-MLSys-Lab/MEDA.
PICASO: Permutation-Invariant Context Composition with State Space Models
Authors: Tian Yu Liu, Alessandro Achille, Matthew Trager, Aditya Golatkar, Luca Zancato, Stefano Soatto
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00
Tasks: State Space Models

Providing Large Language Models with relevant contextual knowledge at inference time has been shown to greatly improve the quality of their generations. This is often achieved by prepending informative passages of text, or 'contexts', retrieved from external knowledge bases to their input. However, processing additional contexts online incurs significant computation costs that scale with their length. State Space Models (SSMs) offer a promising solution by allowing a database of contexts to be mapped onto fixed-dimensional states from which to start the generation. A key challenge arises when attempting to leverage information present across multiple contexts, since there is no straightforward way to condition generation on multiple independent states in existing SSMs. To address this, we leverage a simple mathematical relation derived from SSM dynamics to compose multiple states into one that efficiently approximates the effect of concatenating textual contexts. Since the temporal ordering of contexts can often be uninformative, we enforce permutation-invariance by efficiently averaging states obtained via our composition algorithm across all possible context orderings. We evaluate our resulting method on WikiText and MSMARCO in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings, and show that we can match the strongest performing baseline while enjoying on average 5.4x speedup.
Evaluating the Effect of Retrieval Augmentation on Social Biases
Authors: Tianhui Zhang, Yi Zhou, Danushka Bollegala
Date: 2025-02-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Large Language Model, Question Answering, RAG, Retrieval, Retrieval-augmented Generation, Text Generation

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has gained popularity as a method for conveniently incorporating novel facts that were not seen during the pre-training stage in Large Language Model (LLM)-based Natural Language Generation (NLG) systems. However, LLMs are known to encode significant levels of unfair social biases. The modulation of these biases by RAG in NLG systems is not well understood. In this paper, we systematically study the relationship between the different components of a RAG system and the social biases presented in the text generated across three languages (i.e. English, Japanese and Chinese) and four social bias types (i.e. gender, race, age and religion). Specifically, using the Bias Question Answering (BBQ) benchmark datasets, we evaluate the social biases in RAG responses from document collections with varying levels of stereotypical biases, employing multiple LLMs used as generators. We find that the biases in document collections are often amplified in the generated responses, even when the generating LLM exhibits a low-level of bias. Our findings raise concerns about the use of RAG as a technique for injecting novel facts into NLG systems and call for careful evaluation of potential social biases in RAG applications before their real-world deployment.