pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Improving the Convergence Rates of Forward Gradient Descent with Repeated Sampling
Authors: Niklas Dexheimer, Johannes Schmidt-Hieber
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00

Forward gradient descent (FGD) has been proposed as a biologically more plausible alternative of gradient descent as it can be computed without backward pass. Considering the linear model with $d$ parameters, previous work has found that the prediction error of FGD is, however, by a factor $d$ slower than the prediction error of stochastic gradient descent (SGD). In this paper we show that by computing $\ell$ FGD steps based on each training sample, this suboptimality factor becomes $d/(\ell \wedge d)$ and thus the suboptimality of the rate disappears if $\ell \gtrsim d.$ We also show that FGD with repeated sampling can adapt to low-dimensional structure in the input distribution. The main mathematical challenge lies in controlling the dependencies arising from the repeated sampling process.
Multiscale spatiotemporal heterogeneity analysis of bike-sharing system's self-loop phenomenon: Evidence from Shanghai
Authors: Yichen Wang, Qing Yu, Yancun Song
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00

Bike-sharing is an environmentally friendly shared mobility mode, but its self-loop phenomenon, where bikes are returned to the same station after several time usage, significantly impacts equity in accessing its services. Therefore, this study conducts a multiscale analysis with a spatial autoregressive model and double machine learning framework to assess socioeconomic features and geospatial location's impact on the self-loop phenomenon at metro stations and street scales. The results reveal that bike-sharing self-loop intensity exhibits significant spatial lag effect at street scale and is positively associated with residential land use. Marginal treatment effects of residential land use is higher on streets with middle-aged residents, high fixed employment, and low car ownership. The multimodal public transit condition reveals significant positive marginal treatment effects at both scales. To enhance bike-sharing cooperation, we advocate augmenting bicycle availability in areas with high metro usage and low bus coverage, alongside implementing adaptable redistribution strategies.
Navigating Spatial Inequities in Freight Truck Crash Severity via Counterfactual Inference in Los Angeles
Authors: Yichen Wang, Hao Yin, Yifan Yang, Chenyang Zhao, Siqin Wang
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual, Counterfactual Inference

Freight truck-related crashes pose significant challenges, leading to substantial economic losses, injuries, and fatalities, with pronounced spatial disparities across different regions. This study adopts a transport geography perspective to examine spatial justice concerns by employing deep counterfactual inference models to analyze how socioeconomic disparities, road infrastructure, and environmental conditions influence the geographical distribution and severity of freight truck crashes. By integrating road network datasets, socioeconomic attributes, and crash records from the Los Angeles metropolitan area, this research provides a nuanced spatial analysis of how different communities are disproportionately impacted. The results reveal significant spatial disparities in crash severity across areas with varying population densities, income levels, and minority populations, highlighting the pivotal role of infrastructural and environmental improvements in mitigating these disparities. The findings offer insights into targeted, location-specific policy interventions, suggesting enhancements in road infrastructure, lighting, and traffic control systems, particularly in low-income and minority-concentrated areas. This research contributes to the literature on transport geography and spatial equity by providing data-driven insights into effective measures for reducing spatial injustices associated with freight truck-related crashes.
Towards Maximum Likelihood Training for Transducer-based Streaming Speech Recognition
Authors: Hyeonseung Lee, Ji Won Yoon, Sungsoo Kim, Nam Soo Kim
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Automatic Speech Recognition, Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR), speech-recognition, Speech Recognition

Transducer neural networks have emerged as the mainstream approach for streaming automatic speech recognition (ASR), offering state-of-the-art performance in balancing accuracy and latency. In the conventional framework, streaming transducer models are trained to maximize the likelihood function based on non-streaming recursion rules. However, this approach leads to a mismatch between training and inference, resulting in the issue of deformed likelihood and consequently suboptimal ASR accuracy. We introduce a mathematical quantification of the gap between the actual likelihood and the deformed likelihood, namely forward variable causal compensation (FoCC). We also present its estimator, FoCCE, as a solution to estimate the exact likelihood. Through experiments on the LibriSpeech dataset, we show that FoCCE training improves the accuracy of the streaming transducers.
Evolving Markov Chains: Unsupervised Mode Discovery and Recognition from Data Streams
Authors: Kutalmış Coşkun, Borahan Tümer, Bjarne C. Hiller, Martin Becker
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Activity Recognition, EEG, Human Activity Recognition

Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world processes, like in the context of activity tracking, biological time series, or industrial monitoring, often switch behavior over time. Such behavior switches can be modeled as transitions between higher-level \emph{modes} (e.g., running, walking, etc.). Yet all modes are usually not previously known, often exhibit vastly differing transition probabilities, and can switch unpredictably. Thus, to track behavior changes of live, real-world processes, this study proposes an online and efficient method to construct Evolving Markov chains (EMCs). EMCs adaptively track transition probabilities, automatically discover modes, and detect mode switches in an online manner. In contrast to previous work, EMCs are of arbitrary order, the proposed update scheme does not rely on tracking windows, only updates the relevant region of the probability tensor, and enjoys geometric convergence of the expected estimates. Our evaluation of synthetic data and real-world applications on human activity recognition, electric motor condition monitoring, and eye-state recognition from electroencephalography (EEG) measurements illustrates the versatility of the approach and points to the potential of EMCs to efficiently track, model, and understand live, real-world processes.
Pushing the Limits of Large Language Model Quantization via the Linearity Theorem
Authors: Vladimir Malinovskii, Andrei Panferov, Ivan Ilin, Han Guo, Peter Richtárik, Dan Alistarh
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: GPU, Language Modeling, Language Modelling, Large Language Model, Quantization

Quantizing large language models has become a standard way to reduce their memory and computational costs. Typically, existing methods focus on breaking down the problem into individual layer-wise sub-problems, and minimizing per-layer error, measured via various metrics. Yet, this approach currently lacks theoretical justification and the metrics employed may be sub-optimal. In this paper, we present a "linearity theorem" establishing a direct relationship between the layer-wise $\ell_2$ reconstruction error and the model perplexity increase due to quantization. This insight enables two novel applications: (1) a simple data-free LLM quantization method using Hadamard rotations and MSE-optimal grids, dubbed HIGGS, which outperforms all prior data-free approaches such as the extremely popular NF4 quantized format, and (2) an optimal solution to the problem of finding non-uniform per-layer quantization levels which match a given compression constraint in the medium-bitwidth regime, obtained by reduction to dynamic programming. On the practical side, we demonstrate improved accuracy-compression trade-offs on Llama-3.1 and 3.2-family models, as well as on Qwen-family models. Further, we show that our method can be efficiently supported in terms of GPU kernels at various batch sizes, advancing both data-free and non-uniform quantization for LLMs.
Training Hamiltonian neural networks without backpropagation
Authors: Atamert Rahma, Chinmay Datar, Felix Dietrich
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00

Neural networks that synergistically integrate data and physical laws offer great promise in modeling dynamical systems. However, iterative gradient-based optimization of network parameters is often computationally expensive and suffers from slow convergence. In this work, we present a backpropagation-free algorithm to accelerate the training of neural networks for approximating Hamiltonian systems through data-agnostic and data-driven algorithms. We empirically show that data-driven sampling of the network parameters outperforms data-agnostic sampling or the traditional gradient-based iterative optimization of the network parameters when approximating functions with steep gradients or wide input domains. We demonstrate that our approach is more than 100 times faster with CPUs than the traditionally trained Hamiltonian Neural Networks using gradient-based iterative optimization and is more than four orders of magnitude accurate in chaotic examples, including the H\'enon-Heiles system.
Neural network modelling of kinematic and dynamic features for signature verification
Authors: Moises Diaz, Miguel A. Ferrer, Jose Juan Quintana, Adam Wolniakowski, Roman Trochimczuk, Konstantsin Miatliuk, Giovanna Castellano, Gennaro Vessio
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00

Online signature parameters, which are based on human characteristics, broaden the applicability of an automatic signature verifier. Although kinematic and dynamic features have previously been suggested, accurately measuring features such as arm and forearm torques remains challenging. We present two approaches for estimating angular velocities, angular positions, and force torques. The first approach involves using a physical UR5e robotic arm to reproduce a signature while capturing those parameters over time. The second method, a cost effective approach, uses a neural network to estimate the same parameters. Our findings demonstrate that a simple neural network model can extract effective parameters for signature verification. Training the neural network with the MCYT300 dataset and cross validating with other databases, namely, BiosecurID, Visual, Blind, OnOffSigDevanagari 75 and OnOffSigBengali 75 confirm the models generalization capability.
Confidence-Aware Deep Learning for Load Plan Adjustments in the Parcel Service Industry
Authors: Thomas Bruys, Reza Zandehshahvar, Amira Hijazi, Pascal Van Hentenryck
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Conformal Prediction, Decision Making, Deep Learning, Prediction

This study develops a deep learning-based approach to automate inbound load plan adjustments for a large transportation and logistics company. It addresses a critical challenge for the efficient and resilient planning of E-commerce operations in presence of increasing uncertainties. The paper introduces an innovative data-driven approach to inbound load planning. Leveraging extensive historical data, the paper presents a two-stage decision-making process using deep learning and conformal prediction to provide scalable, accurate, and confidence-aware solutions. The first stage of the prediction is dedicated to tactical load-planning, while the second stage is dedicated to the operational planning, incorporating the latest available data to refine the decisions at the finest granularity. Extensive experiments compare traditional machine learning models and deep learning methods. They highlight the importance and effectiveness of the embedding layers for enhancing the performance of deep learning models. Furthermore, the results emphasize the efficacy of conformal prediction to provide confidence-aware prediction sets. The findings suggest that data-driven methods can substantially improve decision making in inbound load planning, offering planners a comprehensive, trustworthy, and real-time framework to make decisions. The initial deployment in the industry setting indicates a high accuracy of the proposed framework.
Time-Series Forecasting in Smart Manufacturing Systems: An Experimental Evaluation of the State-of-the-art Algorithms
Authors: Mojtaba A. Farahani, Fadi El Kalach, Austin Harper, M. R. McCormick, Ramy Harik, Thorsten Wuest
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Time Series, Time Series Forecasting

TSF is growing in various domains including manufacturing. Although numerous TSF algorithms have been developed recently, the validation and evaluation of algorithms hold substantial value for researchers and practitioners and are missing. This study aims to fill this gap by evaluating the SoTA TSF algorithms on thirteen manufacturing datasets, focusing on their applicability in manufacturing. Each algorithm was selected based on its TSF category to ensure a representative set of algorithms. The evaluation includes different scenarios to evaluate the models using two problem categories and two forecasting horizons. To evaluate the performance, the WAPE was calculated, and additional post hoc analyses were conducted to assess the significance of observed differences. Only algorithms with codes from open-source libraries were utilized, and no hyperparameter tuning was done. This allowed us to evaluate the algorithms as "out-of-the-box" solutions that can be easily implemented, ensuring their usability within the manufacturing by practitioners with limited technical knowledge. This aligns to facilitate the adoption of these techniques in smart manufacturing systems. Based on the results, transformer and MLP-based architectures demonstrated the best performance with MLP-based architecture winning the most scenarios. For univariate TSF, PatchTST emerged as the most robust, particularly for long-term horizons, while for multivariate problems, MLP-based architectures like N-HITS and TiDE showed superior results. The study revealed that simpler algorithms like XGBoost could outperform complex algorithms in certain tasks. These findings challenge the assumption that more sophisticated models produce better results. Additionally, the research highlighted the importance of computational resource considerations, showing variations in runtime and memory usage across different algorithms.
A Machine Learning-based Anomaly Detection Framework in Life Insurance Contracts
Authors: Andreas Groll, Akshat Khanna, Leonid Zeldin
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Anomaly Detection, Unsupervised Anomaly Detection

Life insurance, like other forms of insurance, relies heavily on large volumes of data. The business model is based on an exchange where companies receive payments in return for the promise to provide coverage in case of an accident. Thus, trust in the integrity of the data stored in databases is crucial. One method to ensure data reliability is the automatic detection of anomalies. While this approach is highly useful, it is also challenging due to the scarcity of labeled data that distinguish between normal and anomalous contracts or inter\-actions. This manuscript discusses several classical and modern unsupervised anomaly detection methods and compares their performance across two different datasets. In order to facilitate the adoption of these methods by companies, this work also explores ways to automate the process, making it accessible even to non-data scientists.
Storing overlapping associative memories on latent manifolds in low-rank spiking networks
Authors: William F. Podlaski, Christian K. Machens
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00

Associative memory architectures such as the Hopfield network have long been important conceptual and theoretical models for neuroscience and artificial intelligence. However, translating these abstract models into spiking neural networks has been surprisingly difficult. Indeed, much previous work has been restricted to storing a small number of primarily non-overlapping memories in large networks, thereby limiting their scalability. Here, we revisit the associative memory problem in light of recent advances in understanding spike-based computation. Using a recently-established geometric framework, we show that the spiking activity for a large class of all-inhibitory networks is situated on a low-dimensional, convex, and piecewise-linear manifold, with dynamics that move along the manifold. We then map the associative memory problem onto these dynamics, and demonstrate how the vertices of a hypercubic manifold can be used to store stable, overlapping activity patterns with a direct correspondence to the original Hopfield model. We propose several learning rules, and demonstrate a linear scaling of the storage capacity with the number of neurons, as well as robust pattern completion abilities. Overall, this work serves as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of using a geometrical perspective to design dynamics on neural manifolds, with implications for neuroscience and machine learning.
A Graph Neural Network deep-dive into successful counterattacks
Authors: Joris Bekkers, Amod Sahasrabudhe
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Feature Importance, Graph Neural Network, Navigate

A counterattack in soccer is a high speed, high intensity direct attack that can occur when a team transitions from a defensive state to an attacking state after regaining possession of the ball. The aim is to create a goal-scoring opportunity by convering a lot of ground with minimal passes before the opposing team can recover their defensive shape. The purpose of this research is to build gender-specific Graph Neural Networks to model the likelihood of a counterattack being successful and uncover what factors make them successful in professional soccer. These models are trained on a total of 20863 frames of synchronized on-ball event and spatiotemporal (broadcast) tracking data. This dataset is derived from 632 games of MLS (2022), NWSL (2022) and international soccer (2020-2022). With this data we demonstrate that gender-specific Graph Neural Networks outperform architecturally identical gender-ambiguous models in predicting the successful outcome of counterattacks. We show, using Permutation Feature Importance, that byline to byline speed, angle to the goal, angle to the ball and sideline to sideline speed are the node features with the highest impact on model performance. Additionally, we offer some illustrative examples on how to navigate the infinite solution search space to aid in identifying improvements for player decision making. This research is accompanied by an open-source repository containing all data and code, and it is also accompanied by an open-source Python package which simplifies converting spatiotemporal data into graphs. This package also facilitates testing, validation, training and prediction with this data. This should allow the reader to replicate and improve upon our research more easily.
Maximally Separated Active Learning
Authors: Tejaswi Kasarla, Abhishek Jha, Faye Tervoort, Rita Cucchiara, Pascal Mettes
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Active Learning, Diversity

Active Learning aims to optimize performance while minimizing annotation costs by selecting the most informative samples from an unlabelled pool. Traditional uncertainty sampling often leads to sampling bias by choosing similar uncertain samples. We propose an active learning method that utilizes fixed equiangular hyperspherical points as class prototypes, ensuring consistent inter-class separation and robust feature representations. Our approach introduces Maximally Separated Active Learning (MSAL) for uncertainty sampling and a combined strategy (MSAL-D) for incorporating diversity. This method eliminates the need for costly clustering steps, while maintaining diversity through hyperspherical uniformity. We demonstrate strong performance over existing active learning techniques across five benchmark datasets, highlighting the method's effectiveness and integration ease. The code is available on GitHub.
A Generalized Unified Skew-Normal Process with Neural Bayes Inference
Authors: Kesen Wang, Marc G. Genton
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Gaussian Processes, Spatial Interpolation

In recent decades, statisticians have been increasingly encountering spatial data that exhibit non-Gaussian behaviors such as asymmetry and heavy-tailedness. As a result, the assumptions of symmetry and fixed tail weight in Gaussian processes have become restrictive and may fail to capture the intrinsic properties of the data. To address the limitations of the Gaussian models, a variety of skewed models has been proposed, of which the popularity has grown rapidly. These skewed models introduce parameters that govern skewness and tail weight. Among various proposals in the literature, unified skewed distributions, such as the Unified Skew-Normal (SUN), have received considerable attention. In this work, we revisit a more concise and intepretable re-parameterization of the SUN distribution and apply the distribution to random fields by constructing a generalized unified skew-normal (GSUN) spatial process. We demonstrate that the GSUN is a valid spatial process by showing its vanishing correlation in large distances and provide the corresponding spatial interpolation method. In addition, we develop an inference mechanism for the GSUN process using the concept of neural Bayes estimators with deep graphical attention networks (GATs) and encoder transformer. We show the superiority of our proposed estimator over the conventional CNN-based architectures regarding stability and accuracy by means of a simulation study and application to Pb-contaminated soil data. Furthermore, we show that the GSUN process is different from the conventional Gaussian processes and Tukey g-and-h processes, through the probability integral transform (PIT).
Robust Bayesian Optimization via Localized Online Conformal Prediction
Authors: Dongwon Kim, Matteo Zecchin, Sangwoo Park, Joonhyuk Kang, Osvaldo Simeone
Date: 2024-11-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Optimization, Conformal Prediction, Gaussian Processes, Prediction

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sequential approach for optimizing black-box objective functions using zeroth-order noisy observations. In BO, Gaussian processes (GPs) are employed as probabilistic surrogate models to estimate the objective function based on past observations, guiding the selection of future queries to maximize utility. However, the performance of BO heavily relies on the quality of these probabilistic estimates, which can deteriorate significantly under model misspecification. To address this issue, we introduce localized online conformal prediction-based Bayesian optimization (LOCBO), a BO algorithm that calibrates the GP model through localized online conformal prediction (CP). LOCBO corrects the GP likelihood based on predictive sets produced by LOCBO, and the corrected GP likelihood is then denoised to obtain a calibrated posterior distribution on the objective function. The likelihood calibration step leverages an input-dependent calibration threshold to tailor coverage guarantees to different regions of the input space. Under minimal noise assumptions, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for LOCBO's iterates that hold for the unobserved objective function. These theoretical findings are validated through experiments on synthetic and real-world optimization tasks, demonstrating that LOCBO consistently outperforms state-of-the-art BO algorithms in the presence of model misspecification.