pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
A Counterfactual Analysis of the Dishonest Casino
Authors: Martin Haugh, Raghav Singal
Date: 2024-05-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference, counterfactual, Counterfactual Inference

The dishonest casino is a well-known hidden Markov model (HMM) used in educational settings to introduce HMMs and graphical models. Here, a sequence of die rolls is observed, with the casino switching between a fair and a loaded die. Typically, the goal is to use the observed rolls to infer the pattern of fair and loaded dice, leading to filtering, smoothing, and Viterbi algorithms. This paper, however, explores how much of the winnings is attributable to the casino's cheating, a counterfactual question beyond the scope of HMM primitives. To address this, we introduce a structural causal model (SCM) consistent with the HMM and show that the expected winnings attributable to cheating (EWAC) can be bounded using linear programs (LPs). Through numerical experiments, we compute these bounds and develop intuition using benchmark SCMs based on independence, comonotonic, and counter-monotonic copulas. We show that tighter bounds are obtained with a time-homogeneity condition on the SCM, while looser bounds allow for an almost explicit LP solution. Domain-specific knowledge like pathwise monotonicity or counterfactual stability can be incorporated via linear constraints. Our work contributes to bounding counterfactuals in causal inference and is the first to develop LP bounds in a dynamic HMM setting, benefiting educational contexts where counterfactual inference is taught.
Bayesian Optimization of Functions over Node Subsets in Graphs
Authors: Huidong Liang, Xingchen Wan, Xiaowen Dong
Date: 2024-05-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Optimization, Combinatorial Optimization

We address the problem of optimizing over functions defined on node subsets in a graph. The optimization of such functions is often a non-trivial task given their combinatorial, black-box and expensive-to-evaluate nature. Although various algorithms have been introduced in the literature, most are either task-specific or computationally inefficient and only utilize information about the graph structure without considering the characteristics of the function. To address these limitations, we utilize Bayesian Optimization (BO), a sample-efficient black-box solver, and propose a novel framework for combinatorial optimization on graphs. More specifically, we map each $k$-node subset in the original graph to a node in a new combinatorial graph and adopt a local modeling approach to efficiently traverse the latter graph by progressively sampling its subgraphs using a recursive algorithm. Extensive experiments under both synthetic and real-world setups demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed BO framework on various types of graphs and optimization tasks, where its behavior is analyzed in detail with ablation studies.
Towards Better Understanding of In-Context Learning Ability from In-Context Uncertainty Quantification
Authors: Shang Liu, Zhongze Cai, Guanting Chen, Xiaocheng Li
Date: 2024-05-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference, In-Context Learning, Uncertainty Quantification

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation $\mathbb{E}[Y|X]$ and the conditional variance Var$(Y|X)$. This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window $S$, we prove a generalization bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{\min\{S, T\}/(n T)})$ on $n$ tasks with sequences of length $T$, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{1/n})$. Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the \textit{equivalence} between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.
Is Algorithmic Stability Testable? A Unified Framework under Computational Constraints
Authors: Yuetian Luo, Rina Foygel Barber
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Learning Theory, valid

Algorithmic stability is a central notion in learning theory that quantifies the sensitivity of an algorithm to small changes in the training data. If a learning algorithm satisfies certain stability properties, this leads to many important downstream implications, such as generalization, robustness, and reliable predictive inference. Verifying that stability holds for a particular algorithm is therefore an important and practical question. However, recent results establish that testing the stability of a black-box algorithm is impossible, given limited data from an unknown distribution, in settings where the data lies in an uncountably infinite space (such as real-valued data). In this work, we extend this question to examine a far broader range of settings, where the data may lie in any space -- for example, categorical data. We develop a unified framework for quantifying the hardness of testing algorithmic stability, which establishes that across all settings, if the available data is limited then exhaustive search is essentially the only universally valid mechanism for certifying algorithmic stability. Since in practice, any test of stability would naturally be subject to computational constraints, exhaustive search is impossible and so this implies fundamental limits on our ability to test the stability property for a black-box algorithm.
Conformal Classification with Equalized Coverage for Adaptively Selected Groups
Authors: Yanfei Zhou, Matteo Sesia
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Fairness, valid

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect potential model limitations or biases. This can be useful to find a practical compromise between efficiency -- by providing informative predictions -- and algorithmic fairness -- by ensuring equalized coverage for the most sensitive groups. We demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of this method on simulated and real data sets.
Certified Inventory Control of Critical Resources
Authors: Ludvig Hult, Dave Zachariah, Petre Stoica
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: valid

Inventory control is subject to service-level requirements, in which sufficient stock levels must be maintained despite an unknown demand. We propose a data-driven order policy that certifies any prescribed service level under minimal assumptions on the unknown demand process. The policy achieves this using any online learning method along with integral action. We further propose an inference method that is valid in finite samples. The properties and theoretical guarantees of the method are illustrated using both synthetic and real-world data.
The Rarity of Musical Audio Signals Within the Space of Possible Audio Generation
Authors: Nick Collins
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Audio Generation

A white noise signal can access any possible configuration of values, though statistically over many samples tends to a uniform spectral distribution, and is highly unlikely to produce intelligible sound. But how unlikely? The probability that white noise generates a music-like signal over different durations is analyzed, based on some necessary features observed in real music audio signals such as mostly proximate movement and zero crossing rate. Given the mathematical results, the rarity of music as a signal is considered overall. The applicability of this study is not just to show that music has a precious rarity value, but that examination of the size of music relative to the overall size of audio signal space provides information to inform new generations of algorithmic music system (which are now often founded on audio signal generation directly, and may relate to white noise via such machine learning processes as diffusion). Estimated upper bounds on the rarity of music to the size of various physical and musical spaces are compared, to better understand the magnitude of the results (pun intended). Underlying the research are the questions `how much music is still out there?' and `how much music could a machine learning process actually reach?'.
Music Genre Classification: Training an AI model
Authors: Keoikantse Mogonediwa
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, Genre classification, model, Music Genre Classification, Music Recommendation, Recommendation Systems

Music genre classification is an area that utilizes machine learning models and techniques for the processing of audio signals, in which applications range from content recommendation systems to music recommendation systems. In this research I explore various machine learning algorithms for the purpose of music genre classification, using features extracted from audio signals.The systems are namely, a Multilayer Perceptron (built from scratch), a k-Nearest Neighbours (also built from scratch), a Convolutional Neural Network and lastly a Random Forest wide model. In order to process the audio signals, feature extraction methods such as Short-Time Fourier Transform, and the extraction of Mel Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs), is performed. Through this extensive research, I aim to asses the robustness of machine learning models for genre classification, and to compare their results.
ULTRA-MC: A Unified Approach to Learning Mixtures of Markov Chains via Hitting Times
Authors: Fabian Spaeh, Konstantinos Sotiropoulos, Charalampos E. Tsourakakis
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00

This study introduces a novel approach for learning mixtures of Markov chains, a critical process applicable to various fields, including healthcare and the analysis of web users. Existing research has identified a clear divide in methodologies for learning mixtures of discrete and continuous-time Markov chains, while the latter presents additional complexities for recovery accuracy and efficiency. We introduce a unifying strategy for learning mixtures of discrete and continuous-time Markov chains, focusing on hitting times, which are well defined for both types. Specifically, we design a reconstruction algorithm that outputs a mixture which accurately reflects the estimated hitting times and demonstrates resilience to noise. We introduce an efficient gradient-descent approach, specifically tailored to manage the computational complexity and non-symmetric characteristics inherent in the calculation of hitting time derivatives. Our approach is also of significant interest when applied to a single Markov chain, thus extending the methodologies previously established by Hoskins et al. and Wittmann et al. We complement our theoretical work with experiments conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets, providing a comprehensive evaluation of our methodology.
Pure Exploration for Constrained Best Mixed Arm Identification with a Fixed Budget
Authors: Dengwang Tang, Rahul Jain, Ashutosh Nayyar, Pierluigi Nuzzo
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00

In this paper, we introduce the constrained best mixed arm identification (CBMAI) problem with a fixed budget. This is a pure exploration problem in a stochastic finite armed bandit model. Each arm is associated with a reward and multiple types of costs from unknown distributions. Unlike the unconstrained best arm identification problem, the optimal solution for the CBMAI problem may be a randomized mixture of multiple arms. The goal thus is to find the best mixed arm that maximizes the expected reward subject to constraints on the expected costs with a given learning budget $N$. We propose a novel, parameter-free algorithm, called the Score Function-based Successive Reject (SFSR) algorithm, that combines the classical successive reject framework with a novel score-function-based rejection criteria based on linear programming theory to identify the optimal support. We provide a theoretical upper bound on the mis-identification (of the the support of the best mixed arm) probability and show that it decays exponentially in the budget $N$ and some constants that characterize the hardness of the problem instance. We also develop an information theoretic lower bound on the error probability that shows that these constants appropriately characterize the problem difficulty. We validate this empirically on a number of average and hard instances.
Efficient Certificates of Anti-Concentration Beyond Gaussians
Authors: Ainesh Bakshi, Pravesh Kothari, Goutham Rajendran, Madhur Tulsiani, Aravindan Vijayaraghavan
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00

A set of high dimensional points $X=\{x_1, x_2,\ldots, x_n\} \subset R^d$ in isotropic position is said to be $\delta$-anti concentrated if for every direction $v$, the fraction of points in $X$ satisfying $|\langle x_i,v \rangle |\leq \delta$ is at most $O(\delta)$. Motivated by applications to list-decodable learning and clustering, recent works have considered the problem of constructing efficient certificates of anti-concentration in the average case, when the set of points $X$ corresponds to samples from a Gaussian distribution. Their certificates played a crucial role in several subsequent works in algorithmic robust statistics on list-decodable learning and settling the robust learnability of arbitrary Gaussian mixtures, yet remain limited to rotationally invariant distributions. This work presents a new (and arguably the most natural) formulation for anti-concentration. Using this formulation, we give quasi-polynomial time verifiable sum-of-squares certificates of anti-concentration that hold for a wide class of non-Gaussian distributions including anti-concentrated bounded product distributions and uniform distributions over $L_p$ balls (and their affine transformations). Consequently, our method upgrades and extends results in algorithmic robust statistics e.g., list-decodable learning and clustering, to such distributions. Our approach constructs a canonical integer program for anti-concentration and analysis a sum-of-squares relaxation of it, independent of the intended application. We rely on duality and analyze a pseudo-expectation on large subsets of the input points that take a small value in some direction. Our analysis uses the method of polynomial reweightings to reduce the problem to analyzing only analytically dense or sparse directions.
Distributed Harmonization: Federated Clustered Batch Effect Adjustment and Generalization
Authors: Bao Hoang, Yijiang Pang, Siqi Liang, Liang Zhan, Paul Thompson, Jiayu Zhou
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Diversity

Independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data is essential to many data analysis and modeling techniques. In the medical domain, collecting data from multiple sites or institutions is a common strategy that guarantees sufficient clinical diversity, determined by the decentralized nature of medical data. However, data from various sites are easily biased by the local environment or facilities, thereby violating the i.i.d. rule. A common strategy is to harmonize the site bias while retaining important biological information. The ComBat is among the most popular harmonization approaches and has recently been extended to handle distributed sites. However, when faced with situations involving newly joined sites in training or evaluating data from unknown/unseen sites, ComBat lacks compatibility and requires retraining with data from all the sites. The retraining leads to significant computational and logistic overhead that is usually prohibitive. In this work, we develop a novel Cluster ComBat harmonization algorithm, which leverages cluster patterns of the data in different sites and greatly advances the usability of ComBat harmonization. We use extensive simulation and real medical imaging data from ADNI to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach. Our codes are provided in https://github.com/illidanlab/distributed-cluster-harmonization.
A Survey of Distributed Learning in Cloud, Mobile, and Edge Settings
Authors: Madison Threadgill, Andreas Gerstlauer
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency, Survey

In the era of deep learning (DL), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and large language models (LLMs), machine learning (ML) models are becoming increasingly complex, demanding significant computational resources for both inference and training stages. To address this challenge, distributed learning has emerged as a crucial approach, employing parallelization across various devices and environments. This survey explores the landscape of distributed learning, encompassing cloud and edge settings. We delve into the core concepts of data and model parallelism, examining how models are partitioned across different dimensions and layers to optimize resource utilization and performance. We analyze various partitioning schemes for different layer types, including fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent layers, highlighting the trade-offs between computational efficiency, communication overhead, and memory constraints. This survey provides valuable insights for future research and development in this rapidly evolving field by comparing and contrasting distributed learning approaches across diverse contexts.
4+3 Phases of Compute-Optimal Neural Scaling Laws
Authors: Elliot Paquette, Courtney Paquette, Lechao Xiao, Jeffrey Pennington
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.
Direct Preference Optimization With Unobserved Preference Heterogeneity
Authors: Keertana Chidambaram, Karthik Vinay Seetharaman, Vasilis Syrgkanis
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Ensemble Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning

RLHF has emerged as a pivotal step in aligning language models with human objectives and values. It typically involves learning a reward model from human preference data and then using reinforcement learning to update the generative model accordingly. Conversely, Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) directly optimizes the generative model with preference data, skipping reinforcement learning. However, both RLHF and DPO assume uniform preferences, overlooking the reality of diverse human annotators. This paper presents a new method to align generative models with varied human preferences. We propose an Expectation-Maximization adaptation to DPO, generating a mixture of models based on latent preference types of the annotators. We then introduce a min-max regret ensemble learning model to produce a single generative method to minimize worst-case regret among annotator subgroups with similar latent factors. Our algorithms leverage the simplicity of DPO while accommodating diverse preferences. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of our approach in producing equitable generative policies.
A classification model based on a population of hypergraphs
Authors: Samuel Barton, Adelle Coster, Diane Donovan, James Lefevre
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Attribute

This paper introduces a novel hypergraph classification algorithm. The use of hypergraphs in this framework has been widely studied. In previous work, hypergraph models are typically constructed using distance or attribute based methods. That is, hyperedges are generated by connecting a set of samples which are within a certain distance or have a common attribute. These methods however, do not often focus on multi-way interactions directly. The algorithm provided in this paper looks to address this problem by constructing hypergraphs which explore multi-way interactions of any order. We also increase the performance and robustness of the algorithm by using a population of hypergraphs. The algorithm is evaluated on two datasets, demonstrating promising performance compared to a generic random forest classification algorithm.
Model-Agnostic Utility-Preserving Biometric Information Anonymization
Authors: Chun-Fu Chen, Bill Moriarty, Shaohan Hu, Sean Moran, Marco Pistoia, Vincenzo Piuri, Pierangela Samarati
Date: 2024-05-23 00:00:00
Tasks: model

The recent rapid advancements in both sensing and machine learning technologies have given rise to the universal collection and utilization of people's biometrics, such as fingerprints, voices, retina/facial scans, or gait/motion/gestures data, enabling a wide range of applications including authentication, health monitoring, or much more sophisticated analytics. While providing better user experiences and deeper business insights, the use of biometrics has raised serious privacy concerns due to their intrinsic sensitive nature and the accompanying high risk of leaking sensitive information such as identity or medical conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel modality-agnostic data transformation framework that is capable of anonymizing biometric data by suppressing its sensitive attributes and retaining features relevant to downstream machine learning-based analyses that are of research and business values. We carried out a thorough experimental evaluation using publicly available facial, voice, and motion datasets. Results show that our proposed framework can achieve a \highlight{high suppression level for sensitive information}, while at the same time retain underlying data utility such that subsequent analyses on the anonymized biometric data could still be carried out to yield satisfactory accuracy.