pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
CRAFT: Time Series Forecasting with Cross-Future Behavior Awareness
Authors: Yingwei Zhang, Ke Bu, Zhuoran Zhuang, Tao Xie, Yao Yu, Dong Li, Yang Guo, Detao Lv
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Time Series, Time Series Forecasting

The past decades witness the significant advancements in time series forecasting (TSF) across various real-world domains, including e-commerce and disease spread prediction. However, TSF is usually constrained by the uncertainty dilemma of predicting future data with limited past observations. To settle this question, we explore the use of Cross-Future Behavior (CFB) in TSF, which occurs before the current time but takes effect in the future. We leverage CFB features and propose the CRoss-Future Behavior Awareness based Time Series Forecasting method (CRAFT). The core idea of CRAFT is to utilize the trend of cross-future behavior to mine the trend of time series data to be predicted. Specifically, to settle the sparse and partial flaws of cross-future behavior, CRAFT employs the Koopman Predictor Module to extract the key trend and the Internal Trend Mining Module to supplement the unknown area of the cross-future behavior matrix. Then, we introduce the External Trend Guide Module with a hierarchical structure to acquire more representative trends from higher levels. Finally, we apply the demand-constrained loss to calibrate the distribution deviation of prediction results. We conduct experiments on real-world dataset. Experiments on both offline large-scale dataset and online A/B test demonstrate the effectiveness of CRAFT. Our dataset and code is available at https://github.com/CRAFTinTSF/CRAFT.
Exploring Causes of Representational Similarity in Machine Learning Models
Authors: Zeyu Michael Li, Hung Anh Vu, Damilola Awofisayo, Emily Wenger
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00

Numerous works have noted significant similarities in how machine learning models represent the world, even across modalities. Although much effort has been devoted to uncovering properties and metrics on which these models align, surprisingly little work has explored causes of this similarity. To advance this line of inquiry, this work explores how two possible causal factors -- dataset overlap and task overlap -- influence downstream model similarity. The exploration of dataset overlap is motivated by the reality that large-scale generative AI models are often trained on overlapping datasets of scraped internet data, while the exploration of task overlap seeks to substantiate claims from a recent work, the Platonic Representation Hypothesis, that task similarity may drive model similarity. We evaluate the effects of both factors through a broad set of experiments. We find that both positively correlate with higher representational similarity and that combining them provides the strongest effect. Our code and dataset are published.
New Evidence of the Two-Phase Learning Dynamics of Neural Networks
Authors: Zhanpeng Zhou, Yongyi Yang, Mahito Sugiyama, Junchi Yan
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00

Understanding how deep neural networks learn remains a fundamental challenge in modern machine learning. A growing body of evidence suggests that training dynamics undergo a distinct phase transition, yet our understanding of this transition is still incomplete. In this paper, we introduce an interval-wise perspective that compares network states across a time window, revealing two new phenomena that illuminate the two-phase nature of deep learning. i) \textbf{The Chaos Effect.} By injecting an imperceptibly small parameter perturbation at various stages, we show that the response of the network to the perturbation exhibits a transition from chaotic to stable, suggesting there is an early critical period where the network is highly sensitive to initial conditions; ii) \textbf{The Cone Effect.} Tracking the evolution of the empirical Neural Tangent Kernel (eNTK), we find that after this transition point the model's functional trajectory is confined to a narrow cone-shaped subset: while the kernel continues to change, it gets trapped into a tight angular region. Together, these effects provide a structural, dynamical view of how deep networks transition from sensitive exploration to stable refinement during training.
Cross-Domain Diffusion with Progressive Alignment for Efficient Adaptive Retrieval
Authors: Junyu Luo, Yusheng Zhao, Xiao Luo, Zhiping Xiao, Wei Ju, Li Shen, DaCheng Tao, Ming Zhang
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Domain Adaptation, Retrieval

Unsupervised efficient domain adaptive retrieval aims to transfer knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain, while maintaining low storage cost and high retrieval efficiency. However, existing methods typically fail to address potential noise in the target domain, and directly align high-level features across domains, thus resulting in suboptimal retrieval performance. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Cross-Domain Diffusion with Progressive Alignment method (COUPLE). This approach revisits unsupervised efficient domain adaptive retrieval from a graph diffusion perspective, simulating cross-domain adaptation dynamics to achieve a stable target domain adaptation process. First, we construct a cross-domain relationship graph and leverage noise-robust graph flow diffusion to simulate the transfer dynamics from the source domain to the target domain, identifying lower noise clusters. We then leverage the graph diffusion results for discriminative hash code learning, effectively learning from the target domain while reducing the negative impact of noise. Furthermore, we employ a hierarchical Mixup operation for progressive domain alignment, which is performed along the cross-domain random walk paths. Utilizing target domain discriminative hash learning and progressive domain alignment, COUPLE enables effective domain adaptive hash learning. Extensive experiments demonstrate COUPLE's effectiveness on competitive benchmarks.
ShortcutProbe: Probing Prediction Shortcuts for Learning Robust Models
Authors: Guangtao Zheng, Wenqian Ye, Aidong Zhang
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction

Deep learning models often achieve high performance by inadvertently learning spurious correlations between targets and non-essential features. For example, an image classifier may identify an object via its background that spuriously correlates with it. This prediction behavior, known as spurious bias, severely degrades model performance on data that lacks the learned spurious correlations. Existing methods on spurious bias mitigation typically require a variety of data groups with spurious correlation annotations called group labels. However, group labels require costly human annotations and often fail to capture subtle spurious biases such as relying on specific pixels for predictions. In this paper, we propose a novel post hoc spurious bias mitigation framework without requiring group labels. Our framework, termed ShortcutProbe, identifies prediction shortcuts that reflect potential non-robustness in predictions in a given model's latent space. The model is then retrained to be invariant to the identified prediction shortcuts for improved robustness. We theoretically analyze the effectiveness of the framework and empirically demonstrate that it is an efficient and practical tool for improving a model's robustness to spurious bias on diverse datasets.
VAMO: Efficient Large-Scale Nonconvex Optimization via Adaptive Zeroth Order Variance Reduction
Authors: Jiahe Chen, Ziye Ma
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency

Optimizing large-scale nonconvex problems, common in machine learning, demands balancing rapid convergence with computational efficiency. First-order (FO) stochastic methods like SVRG provide fast convergence and good generalization but incur high costs due to full-batch gradients in large models. Conversely, zeroth-order (ZO) algorithms reduce this burden using estimated gradients, yet their slow convergence in high-dimensional settings limits practicality. We introduce VAMO (VAriance-reduced Mixed-gradient Optimizer), a stochastic variance-reduced method combining FO mini-batch gradients with lightweight ZO finite-difference probes under an SVRG-style framework. VAMO's hybrid design uses a two-point ZO estimator to achieve a dimension-agnostic convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(1/T + 1/b)$, where $T$ is the number of iterations and $b$ is the batch-size, surpassing the dimension-dependent slowdown of purely ZO methods and significantly improving over SGD's $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$ rate. Additionally, we propose a multi-point ZO variant that mitigates the $O(1/b)$ error by adjusting number of estimation points to balance convergence and cost, making it ideal for a whole range of computationally constrained scenarios. Experiments including traditional neural network training and LLM finetuning show VAMO outperforms established FO and ZO methods, offering a faster, more flexible option for improved efficiency.
Adaptive Sentencing Prediction with Guaranteed Accuracy and Legal Interpretability
Authors: Yifei Jin, Xin Zheng, Lei Guo
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction

Existing research on judicial sentencing prediction predominantly relies on end-to-end models, which often neglect the inherent sentencing logic and lack interpretability-a critical requirement for both scholarly research and judicial practice. To address this challenge, we make three key contributions:First, we propose a novel Saturated Mechanistic Sentencing (SMS) model, which provides inherent legal interpretability by virtue of its foundation in China's Criminal Law. We also introduce the corresponding Momentum Least Mean Squares (MLMS) adaptive algorithm for this model. Second, for the MLMS algorithm based adaptive sentencing predictor, we establish a mathematical theory on the accuracy of adaptive prediction without resorting to any stationarity and independence assumptions on the data. We also provide a best possible upper bound for the prediction accuracy achievable by the best predictor designed in the known parameters case. Third, we construct a Chinese Intentional Bodily Harm (CIBH) dataset. Utilizing this real-world data, extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves a prediction accuracy that is not far from the best possible theoretical upper bound, validating both the model's suitability and the algorithm's accuracy.
Unsupervised Graph Clustering with Deep Structural Entropy
Authors: Jingyun Zhang, Hao Peng, Li Sun, Guanlin Wu, Chunyang Liu, Zhengtao Yu
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Contrastive Learning, Graph Attention, Graph Clustering, Graph structure learning

Research on Graph Structure Learning (GSL) provides key insights for graph-based clustering, yet current methods like Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), Graph Attention Networks (GATs), and contrastive learning often rely heavily on the original graph structure. Their performance deteriorates when the original graph's adjacency matrix is too sparse or contains noisy edges unrelated to clustering. Moreover, these methods depend on learning node embeddings and using traditional techniques like k-means to form clusters, which may not fully capture the underlying graph structure between nodes. To address these limitations, this paper introduces DeSE, a novel unsupervised graph clustering framework incorporating Deep Structural Entropy. It enhances the original graph with quantified structural information and deep neural networks to form clusters. Specifically, we first propose a method for calculating structural entropy with soft assignment, which quantifies structure in a differentiable form. Next, we design a Structural Learning layer (SLL) to generate an attributed graph from the original feature data, serving as a target to enhance and optimize the original structural graph, thereby mitigating the issue of sparse connections between graph nodes. Finally, our clustering assignment method (ASS), based on GNNs, learns node embeddings and a soft assignment matrix to cluster on the enhanced graph. The ASS layer can be stacked to meet downstream task requirements, minimizing structural entropy for stable clustering and maximizing node consistency with edge-based cross-entropy loss. Extensive comparative experiments are conducted on four benchmark datasets against eight representative unsupervised graph clustering baselines, demonstrating the superiority of the DeSE in both effectiveness and interpretability.
Generalized Category Discovery via Token Manifold Capacity Learning
Authors: Luyao Tang, Kunze Huang, Chaoqi Chen, Cheng Chen
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering

Generalized category discovery (GCD) is essential for improving deep learning models' robustness in open-world scenarios by clustering unlabeled data containing both known and novel categories. Traditional GCD methods focus on minimizing intra-cluster variations, often sacrificing manifold capacity, which limits the richness of intra-class representations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, Maximum Token Manifold Capacity (MTMC), that prioritizes maximizing the manifold capacity of class tokens to preserve the diversity and complexity of data. MTMC leverages the nuclear norm of singular values as a measure of manifold capacity, ensuring that the representation of samples remains informative and well-structured. This method enhances the discriminability of clusters, allowing the model to capture detailed semantic features and avoid the loss of critical information during clustering. Through theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on coarse- and fine-grained datasets, we demonstrate that MTMC outperforms existing GCD methods, improving both clustering accuracy and the estimation of category numbers. The integration of MTMC leads to more complete representations, better inter-class separability, and a reduction in dimensional collapse, establishing MTMC as a vital component for robust open-world learning. Code is in github.com/lytang63/MTMC.
Assessing wildfire susceptibility in Iran: Leveraging machine learning for geospatial analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors
Authors: Ehsan Masoudian, Ali Mirzaei, Hossein Bagheri
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Cloud Computing

This study investigates the multifaceted factors influencing wildfire risk in Iran, focusing on the interplay between climatic conditions and human activities. Utilizing advanced remote sensing, geospatial information system (GIS) processing techniques such as cloud computing, and machine learning algorithms, this research analyzed the impact of climatic parameters, topographic features, and human-related factors on wildfire susceptibility assessment and prediction in Iran. Multiple scenarios were developed for this purpose based on the data sampling strategy. The findings revealed that climatic elements such as soil moisture, temperature, and humidity significantly contribute to wildfire susceptibility, while human activities-particularly population density and proximity to powerlines-also played a crucial role. Furthermore, the seasonal impact of each parameter was separately assessed during warm and cold seasons. The results indicated that human-related factors, rather than climatic variables, had a more prominent influence during the seasonal analyses. This research provided new insights into wildfire dynamics in Iran by generating high-resolution wildfire susceptibility maps using advanced machine learning classifiers. The generated maps identified high risk areas, particularly in the central Zagros region, the northeastern Hyrcanian Forest, and the northern Arasbaran forest, highlighting the urgent need for effective fire management strategies.
Personalized Bayesian Federated Learning with Wasserstein Barycenter Aggregation
Authors: Ting Wei, Biao Mei, Junliang Lyu, Renquan Zhang, Feng Zhou, Yifan Sun
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference, Federated Learning, Variational Inference

Personalized Bayesian federated learning (PBFL) handles non-i.i.d. client data and quantifies uncertainty by combining personalization with Bayesian inference. However, existing PBFL methods face two limitations: restrictive parametric assumptions in client posterior inference and naive parameter averaging for server aggregation. To overcome these issues, we propose FedWBA, a novel PBFL method that enhances both local inference and global aggregation. At the client level, we use particle-based variational inference for nonparametric posterior representation. At the server level, we introduce particle-based Wasserstein barycenter aggregation, offering a more geometrically meaningful approach. Theoretically, we provide local and global convergence guarantees for FedWBA. Locally, we prove a KL divergence decrease lower bound per iteration for variational inference convergence. Globally, we show that the Wasserstein barycenter converges to the true parameter as the client data size increases. Empirically, experiments show that FedWBA outperforms baselines in prediction accuracy, uncertainty calibration, and convergence rate, with ablation studies confirming its robustness.
MSDformer: Multi-scale Discrete Transformer For Time Series Generation
Authors: Zhicheng Chen, Shibo Feng, Xi Xiao, Zhong Zhang, Qing Li, Xingyu Gao, Peilin Zhao
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Model Optimization, Time Series, Time Series Generation

Discrete Token Modeling (DTM), which employs vector quantization techniques, has demonstrated remarkable success in modeling non-natural language modalities, particularly in time series generation. While our prior work SDformer established the first DTM-based framework to achieve state-of-the-art performance in this domain, two critical limitations persist in existing DTM approaches: 1) their inability to capture multi-scale temporal patterns inherent to complex time series data, and 2) the absence of theoretical foundations to guide model optimization. To address these challenges, we proposes a novel multi-scale DTM-based time series generation method, called Multi-Scale Discrete Transformer (MSDformer). MSDformer employs a multi-scale time series tokenizer to learn discrete token representations at multiple scales, which jointly characterize the complex nature of time series data. Subsequently, MSDformer applies a multi-scale autoregressive token modeling technique to capture the multi-scale patterns of time series within the discrete latent space. Theoretically, we validate the effectiveness of the DTM method and the rationality of MSDformer through the rate-distortion theorem. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that MSDformer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate that incorporating multi-scale information and modeling multi-scale patterns can substantially enhance the quality of generated time series in DTM-based approaches. The code will be released upon acceptance.
A PID-Controlled Tensor Wheel Decomposition Model for Dynamic Link Prediction
Authors: Qu Wang, Yan Xia
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Dynamic Link Prediction, Link Prediction, Prediction

Link prediction in dynamic networks remains a fundamental challenge in network science, requiring the inference of potential interactions and their evolving strengths through spatiotemporal pattern analysis. Traditional static network methods have inherent limitations in capturing temporal dependencies and weight dynamics, while tensor-based methods offer a promising paradigm by encoding dynamic networks into high-order tensors to explicitly model multidimensional interactions across nodes and time. Among them, tensor wheel decomposition (TWD) stands out for its innovative topological structure, which decomposes high-order tensors into cyclic factors and core tensors to maintain structural integrity. To improve the prediction accuracy, this study introduces a PID-controlled tensor wheel decomposition (PTWD) model, which mainly adopts the following two ideas: 1) exploiting the representation power of TWD to capture the latent features of dynamic network topology and weight evolution, and 2) integrating the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control principle into the optimization process to obtain a stable model parameter learning scheme. The performance on four real datasets verifies that the proposed PTWD model has more accurate link prediction capabilities compared to other models.
Learning with Local Search MCMC Layers
Authors: Germain Vivier-Ardisson, Mathieu Blondel, Axel Parmentier
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Combinatorial Optimization

Integrating combinatorial optimization layers into neural networks has recently attracted significant research interest. However, many existing approaches lack theoretical guarantees or fail to perform adequately when relying on inexact solvers. This is a critical limitation, as many operations research problems are NP-hard, often necessitating the use of neighborhood-based local search heuristics. These heuristics iteratively generate and evaluate candidate solutions based on an acceptance rule. In this paper, we introduce a theoretically-principled approach for learning with such inexact combinatorial solvers. Inspired by the connection between simulated annealing and Metropolis-Hastings, we propose to transform problem-specific neighborhood systems used in local search heuristics into proposal distributions, implementing MCMC on the combinatorial space of feasible solutions. This allows us to construct differentiable combinatorial layers and associated loss functions. Replacing an exact solver by a local search strongly reduces the computational burden of learning on many applications. We demonstrate our approach on a large-scale dynamic vehicle routing problem with time windows.
Towards eliciting latent knowledge from LLMs with mechanistic interpretability
Authors: Bartosz Cywiński, Emil Ryd, Senthooran Rajamanoharan, Neel Nanda
Date: 2025-05-20 00:00:00

As language models become more powerful and sophisticated, it is crucial that they remain trustworthy and reliable. There is concerning preliminary evidence that models may attempt to deceive or keep secrets from their operators. To explore the ability of current techniques to elicit such hidden knowledge, we train a Taboo model: a language model that describes a specific secret word without explicitly stating it. Importantly, the secret word is not presented to the model in its training data or prompt. We then investigate methods to uncover this secret. First, we evaluate non-interpretability (black-box) approaches. Subsequently, we develop largely automated strategies based on mechanistic interpretability techniques, including logit lens and sparse autoencoders. Evaluation shows that both approaches are effective in eliciting the secret word in our proof-of-concept setting. Our findings highlight the promise of these approaches for eliciting hidden knowledge and suggest several promising avenues for future work, including testing and refining these methods on more complex model organisms. This work aims to be a step towards addressing the crucial problem of eliciting secret knowledge from language models, thereby contributing to their safe and reliable deployment.