pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Compete and Compose: Learning Independent Mechanisms for Modular World Models
Authors: Anson Lei, Frederik Nolte, Bernhard Schölkopf, Ingmar Posner
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00

We present COmpetitive Mechanisms for Efficient Transfer (COMET), a modular world model which leverages reusable, independent mechanisms across different environments. COMET is trained on multiple environments with varying dynamics via a two-step process: competition and composition. This enables the model to recognise and learn transferable mechanisms. Specifically, in the competition phase, COMET is trained with a winner-takes-all gradient allocation, encouraging the emergence of independent mechanisms. These are then re-used in the composition phase, where COMET learns to re-compose learnt mechanisms in ways that capture the dynamics of intervened environments. In so doing, COMET explicitly reuses prior knowledge, enabling efficient and interpretable adaptation. We evaluate COMET on environments with image-based observations. In contrast to competitive baselines, we demonstrate that COMET captures recognisable mechanisms without supervision. Moreover, we show that COMET is able to adapt to new environments with varying numbers of objects with improved sample efficiency compared to more conventional finetuning approaches.
Uncertainty Quantification of Data-Driven Output Predictors in the Output Error Setting
Authors: Farzan Kaviani, Ivan Markovsky, Hamid R. Ossareh
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction, Uncertainty Quantification

We revisit the problem of predicting the output of an LTI system directly using offline input-output data (and without the use of a parametric model) in the behavioral setting. Existing works calculate the output predictions by projecting the recent samples of the input and output signals onto the column span of a Hankel matrix consisting of the offline input-output data. However, if the offline data is corrupted by noise, the output prediction is no longer exact. While some prior works propose mitigating noisy data through matrix low-ranking approximation heuristics, such as truncated singular value decomposition, the ensuing prediction accuracy remains unquantified. This paper fills these gaps by introducing two upper bounds on the prediction error under the condition that the noise is sufficiently small relative to the offline data's magnitude. The first bound pertains to prediction using the raw offline data directly, while the second one applies to the case of low-ranking approximation heuristic. Notably, the bounds do not require the ground truth about the system output, relying solely on noisy measurements with a known noise level and system order. Extensive numerical simulations show that both bounds decrease monotonically (and linearly) as a function of the noise level. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that applying the de-noising heuristic in the output error setup does not generally lead to a better prediction accuracy as compared to using raw data directly, nor a smaller upper bound on the prediction error. However, it allows for a more general upper bound, as the first upper bound requires a specific condition on the partitioning of the Hankel matrix.
Impedance Matching: Enabling an RL-Based Running Jump in a Quadruped Robot
Authors: Neil Guan, Shangqun Yu, Shifan Zhu, Donghyun Kim
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Replicating the remarkable athleticism seen in animals has long been a challenge in robotics control. Although Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated significant progress in dynamic legged locomotion control, the substantial sim-to-real gap often hinders the real-world demonstration of truly dynamic movements. We propose a new framework to mitigate this gap through frequency-domain analysis-based impedance matching between simulated and real robots. Our framework offers a structured guideline for parameter selection and the range for dynamics randomization in simulation, thus facilitating a safe sim-to-real transfer. The learned policy using our framework enabled jumps across distances of 55 cm and heights of 38 cm. The results are, to the best of our knowledge, one of the highest and longest running jumps demonstrated by an RL-based control policy in a real quadruped robot. Note that the achieved jumping height is approximately 85% of that obtained from a state-of-the-art trajectory optimization method, which can be seen as the physical limit for the given robot hardware. In addition, our control policy accomplished stable walking at speeds up to 2 m/s in the forward and backward directions, and 1 m/s in the sideway direction.
Using ARIMA to Predict the Expansion of Subscriber Data Consumption
Authors: Mike Wa Nkongolo
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Time Series, Time Series Forecasting

This study discusses how insights retrieved from subscriber data can impact decision-making in telecommunications, focusing on predictive modeling using machine learning techniques such as the ARIMA model. The study explores time series forecasting to predict subscriber usage trends, evaluating the ARIMA model's performance using various metrics. It also compares ARIMA with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models, highlighting ARIMA's superiority in accuracy and execution speed. The study suggests future directions for research, including exploring additional forecasting models and considering other factors affecting subscriber data usage.
Hyperparameter Optimization Can Even be Harmful in Off-Policy Learning and How to Deal with It
Authors: Yuta Saito, Masahiro Nomura
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual, Decision Making, Hyperparameter Optimization, Off-policy evaluation, Recommendation Systems

There has been a growing interest in off-policy evaluation in the literature such as recommender systems and personalized medicine. We have so far seen significant progress in developing estimators aimed at accurately estimating the effectiveness of counterfactual policies based on biased logged data. However, there are many cases where those estimators are used not only to evaluate the value of decision making policies but also to search for the best hyperparameters from a large candidate space. This work explores the latter hyperparameter optimization (HPO) task for off-policy learning. We empirically show that naively applying an unbiased estimator of the generalization performance as a surrogate objective in HPO can cause an unexpected failure, merely pursuing hyperparameters whose generalization performance is greatly overestimated. We then propose simple and computationally efficient corrections to the typical HPO procedure to deal with the aforementioned issues simultaneously. Empirical investigations demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed HPO algorithm in situations where the typical procedure fails severely.
Explainable LightGBM Approach for Predicting Myocardial Infarction Mortality
Authors: Ana Letícia Garcez Vicente, Roseval Donisete Malaquias Junior, Roseli A. F. Romero
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: feature selection, Imputation, Missing Values

Myocardial Infarction is a main cause of mortality globally, and accurate risk prediction is crucial for improving patient outcomes. Machine Learning techniques have shown promise in identifying high-risk patients and predicting outcomes. However, patient data often contain vast amounts of information and missing values, posing challenges for feature selection and imputation methods. In this article, we investigate the impact of the data preprocessing task and compare three ensembles boosted tree methods to predict the risk of mortality in patients with myocardial infarction. Further, we use the Tree Shapley Additive Explanations method to identify relationships among all the features for the performed predictions, leveraging the entirety of the available data in the analysis. Notably, our approach achieved a superior performance when compared to other existing machine learning approaches, with an F1-score of 91,2% and an accuracy of 91,8% for LightGBM without data preprocessing.
Conformal Predictive Systems Under Covariate Shift
Authors: Jef Jonkers, Glenn Van Wallendael, Luc Duchateau, Sofie Van Hoecke
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Conformal Prediction, Decision Making

Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) offer a versatile framework for constructing predictive distributions, allowing for calibrated inference and informative decision-making. However, their applicability has been limited to scenarios adhering to the Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) model assumption. This paper extends CPS to accommodate scenarios characterized by covariate shifts. We therefore propose Weighted CPS (WCPS), akin to Weighted Conformal Prediction (WCP), leveraging likelihood ratios between training and testing covariate distributions. This extension enables the construction of nonparametric predictive distributions capable of handling covariate shifts. We present theoretical underpinnings and conjectures regarding the validity and efficacy of WCPS and demonstrate its utility through empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Our simulation experiments indicate that WCPS are probabilistically calibrated under covariate shift.
A Unified Replay-based Continuous Learning Framework for Spatio-Temporal Prediction on Streaming Data
Authors: Hao Miao, Yan Zhao, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang, Kai Zheng, Feiteng Huang, Jiandong Xie, Christian S. Jensen
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Data Augmentation, Prediction, Traffic Prediction

The widespread deployment of wireless and mobile devices results in a proliferation of spatio-temporal data that is used in applications, e.g., traffic prediction, human mobility mining, and air quality prediction, where spatio-temporal prediction is often essential to enable safety, predictability, or reliability. Many recent proposals that target deep learning for spatio-temporal prediction suffer from so-called catastrophic forgetting, where previously learned knowledge is entirely forgotten when new data arrives. Such proposals may experience deteriorating prediction performance when applied in settings where data streams into the system. To enable spatio-temporal prediction on streaming data, we propose a unified replay-based continuous learning framework. The framework includes a replay buffer of previously learned samples that are fused with training data using a spatio-temporal mixup mechanism in order to preserve historical knowledge effectively, thus avoiding catastrophic forgetting. To enable holistic representation preservation, the framework also integrates a general spatio-temporal autoencoder with a carefully designed spatio-temporal simple siamese (STSimSiam) network that aims to ensure prediction accuracy and avoid holistic feature loss by means of mutual information maximization. The framework further encompasses five spatio-temporal data augmentation methods to enhance the performance of STSimSiam. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Symbolic Integration Algorithm Selection with Machine Learning: LSTMs vs Tree LSTMs
Authors: Rashid Barket, Matthew England, Jürgen Gerhard
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00

Computer Algebra Systems (e.g. Maple) are used in research, education, and industrial settings. One of their key functionalities is symbolic integration, where there are many sub-algorithms to choose from that can affect the form of the output integral, and the runtime. Choosing the right sub-algorithm for a given problem is challenging: we hypothesise that Machine Learning can guide this sub-algorithm choice. A key consideration of our methodology is how to represent the mathematics to the ML model: we hypothesise that a representation which encodes the tree structure of mathematical expressions would be well suited. We trained both an LSTM and a TreeLSTM model for sub-algorithm prediction and compared them to Maple's existing approach. Our TreeLSTM performs much better than the LSTM, highlighting the benefit of using an informed representation of mathematical expressions. It is able to produce better outputs than Maple's current state-of-the-art meta-algorithm, giving a strong basis for further research.
Integrating Heterogeneous Gene Expression Data through Knowledge Graphs for Improving Diabetes Prediction
Authors: Rita T. Sousa, Heiko Paulheim
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Data Integration, Diabetes Prediction, Knowledge Graphs

Diabetes is a worldwide health issue affecting millions of people. Machine learning methods have shown promising results in improving diabetes prediction, particularly through the analysis of diverse data types, namely gene expression data. While gene expression data can provide valuable insights, challenges arise from the fact that the sample sizes in expression datasets are usually limited, and the data from different datasets with different gene expressions cannot be easily combined. This work proposes a novel approach to address these challenges by integrating multiple gene expression datasets and domain-specific knowledge using knowledge graphs, a unique tool for biomedical data integration. KG embedding methods are then employed to generate vector representations, serving as inputs for a classifier. Experiments demonstrated the efficacy of our approach, revealing improvements in diabetes prediction when integrating multiple gene expression datasets and domain-specific knowledge about protein functions and interactions.
Cache-Aware Reinforcement Learning in Large-Scale Recommender Systems
Authors: Xiaoshuang Chen, Gengrui Zhang, Yao Wang, Yulin Wu, Shuo Su, Kaiqiao Zhan, Ben Wang
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Recommendation Systems, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning

Modern large-scale recommender systems are built upon computation-intensive infrastructure and usually suffer from a huge difference in traffic between peak and off-peak periods. In peak periods, it is challenging to perform real-time computation for each request due to the limited budget of computational resources. The recommendation with a cache is a solution to this problem, where a user-wise result cache is used to provide recommendations when the recommender system cannot afford a real-time computation. However, the cached recommendations are usually suboptimal compared to real-time computation, and it is challenging to determine the items in the cache for each user. In this paper, we provide a cache-aware reinforcement learning (CARL) method to jointly optimize the recommendation by real-time computation and by the cache. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process with user states and a cache state, where the cache state represents whether the recommender system performs recommendations by real-time computation or by the cache. The computational load of the recommender system determines the cache state. We perform reinforcement learning based on such a model to improve user engagement over multiple requests. Moreover, we show that the cache will introduce a challenge called critic dependency, which deteriorates the performance of reinforcement learning. To tackle this challenge, we propose an eigenfunction learning (EL) method to learn independent critics for CARL. Experiments show that CARL can significantly improve the users' engagement when considering the result cache. CARL has been fully launched in Kwai app, serving over 100 million users.
Dynamic pricing with Bayesian updates from online reviews
Authors: José Correa, Mathieu Mari, Andrew Xia
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00

When launching new products, firms face uncertainty about market reception. Online reviews provide valuable information not only to consumers but also to firms, allowing firms to adjust the product characteristics, including its selling price. In this paper, we consider a pricing model with online reviews in which the quality of the product is uncertain, and both the seller and the buyers Bayesianly update their beliefs to make purchasing & pricing decisions. We model the seller's pricing problem as a basic bandits' problem and show a close connection with the celebrated Catalan numbers, allowing us to efficiently compute the overall future discounted reward of the seller. With this tool, we analyze and compare the optimal static and dynamic pricing strategies in terms of the probability of effectively learning the quality of the product.
Does It Make Sense to Explain a Black Box With Another Black Box?
Authors: Julien Delaunay, Luis Galárraga, Christine Largouët
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual, Counterfactual Explanation, Fake News Detection, Sentiment Analysis

Although counterfactual explanations are a popular approach to explain ML black-box classifiers, they are less widespread in NLP. Most methods find those explanations by iteratively perturbing the target document until it is classified differently by the black box. We identify two main families of counterfactual explanation methods in the literature, namely, (a) \emph{transparent} methods that perturb the target by adding, removing, or replacing words, and (b) \emph{opaque} approaches that project the target document into a latent, non-interpretable space where the perturbation is carried out subsequently. This article offers a comparative study of the performance of these two families of methods on three classical NLP tasks. Our empirical evidence shows that opaque approaches can be an overkill for downstream applications such as fake news detection or sentiment analysis since they add an additional level of complexity with no significant performance gain. These observations motivate our discussion, which raises the question of whether it makes sense to explain a black box using another black box.
Manipulating Recommender Systems: A Survey of Poisoning Attacks and Countermeasures
Authors: Thanh Toan Nguyen, Quoc Viet Hung Nguyen, Thanh Tam Nguyen, Thanh Trung Huynh, Thanh Thi Nguyen, Matthias Weidlich, Hongzhi Yin
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Recommendation Systems, Survey

Recommender systems have become an integral part of online services to help users locate specific information in a sea of data. However, existing studies show that some recommender systems are vulnerable to poisoning attacks, particularly those that involve learning schemes. A poisoning attack is where an adversary injects carefully crafted data into the process of training a model, with the goal of manipulating the system's final recommendations. Based on recent advancements in artificial intelligence, such attacks have gained importance recently. While numerous countermeasures to poisoning attacks have been developed, they have not yet been systematically linked to the properties of the attacks. Consequently, assessing the respective risks and potential success of mitigation strategies is difficult, if not impossible. This survey aims to fill this gap by primarily focusing on poisoning attacks and their countermeasures. This is in contrast to prior surveys that mainly focus on attacks and their detection methods. Through an exhaustive literature review, we provide a novel taxonomy for poisoning attacks, formalise its dimensions, and accordingly organise 30+ attacks described in the literature. Further, we review 40+ countermeasures to detect and/or prevent poisoning attacks, evaluating their effectiveness against specific types of attacks. This comprehensive survey should serve as a point of reference for protecting recommender systems against poisoning attacks. The article concludes with a discussion on open issues in the field and impactful directions for future research. A rich repository of resources associated with poisoning attacks is available at https://github.com/tamlhp/awesome-recsys-poisoning.
Additive Margin in Contrastive Self-Supervised Frameworks to Learn Discriminative Speaker Representations
Authors: Theo Lepage, Reda Dehak
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Self-Supervised Learning, Speaker Verification

Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) frameworks became the standard for learning robust class representations by benefiting from large unlabeled datasets. For Speaker Verification (SV), most SSL systems rely on contrastive-based loss functions. We explore different ways to improve the performance of these techniques by revisiting the NT-Xent contrastive loss. Our main contribution is the definition of the NT-Xent-AM loss and the study of the importance of Additive Margin (AM) in SimCLR and MoCo SSL methods to further separate positive from negative pairs. Despite class collisions, we show that AM enhances the compactness of same-speaker embeddings and reduces the number of false negatives and false positives on SV. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the symmetric contrastive loss, which provides more supervision for the SSL task. Implementing these two modifications to SimCLR improves performance and results in 7.85% EER on VoxCeleb1-O, outperforming other equivalent methods.
MultiSTOP: Solving Functional Equations with Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Alessandro Trenta, Davide Bacciu, Andrea Cossu, Pietro Ferrero
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00
Tasks: reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning

We develop MultiSTOP, a Reinforcement Learning framework for solving functional equations in physics. This new methodology produces actual numerical solutions instead of bounds on them. We extend the original BootSTOP algorithm by adding multiple constraints derived from domain-specific knowledge, even in integral form, to improve the accuracy of the solution. We investigate a particular equation in a one-dimensional Conformal Field Theory.
GCEPNet: Graph Convolution-Enhanced Expectation Propagation for Massive MIMO Detection
Authors: Qincheng Lu, Sitao Luan, Xiao-Wen Chang
Date: 2024-04-23 00:00:00

Massive MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) detection is an important topic in wireless communication and various machine learning based methods have been developed recently for this task. Expectation Propagation (EP) and its variants are widely used for MIMO detection and have achieved the best performance. However, EP-based solvers fail to capture the correlation between unknown variables, leading to a loss of information, and in addition, they are computationally expensive. In this paper, we show that the real-valued system can be modeled as spectral signal convolution on graph, through which the correlation between unknown variables can be captured. Based on such analysis, we propose graph convolution-enhanced expectation propagation (GCEPNet). GCEPNet incorporates data-dependent attention scores into Chebyshev polynomial for powerful graph convolution with better generalization capacity. It enables a better estimation of the cavity distribution for EP and empirically achieves the state-of-the-art (SOTA) MIMO detection performance with much faster inference speed. To our knowledge, we are the first to shed light on the connection between the system model and graph convolution, and the first to design the data-dependent coefficients for graph convolution.