pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Advanced Risk Prediction and Stability Assessment of Banks Using Time Series Transformer Models
Authors: Wenying Sun, Zhen Xu, Wenqing Zhang, Kunyuan Ma, You Wu, Mengfang Sun
Date: 2024-12-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Management, Prediction, Time Series

This paper aims to study the prediction of the bank stability index based on the Time Series Transformer model. The bank stability index is an important indicator to measure the health status and risk resistance of financial institutions. Traditional prediction methods are difficult to adapt to complex market changes because they rely on single-dimensional macroeconomic data. This paper proposes a prediction framework based on the Time Series Transformer, which uses the self-attention mechanism of the model to capture the complex temporal dependencies and nonlinear relationships in financial data. Through experiments, we compare the model with LSTM, GRU, CNN, TCN and RNN-Transformer models. The experimental results show that the Time Series Transformer model outperforms other models in both mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) evaluation indicators, showing strong prediction ability. This shows that the Time Series Transformer model can better handle multidimensional time series data in bank stability prediction, providing new technical approaches and solutions for financial risk management.
Exploring Non-Linear Effects of Built Environment on Travel Using an Integrated Machine Learning and Inferential Modeling Approach: A Three-Wave Repeated Cross-Sectional Study
Authors: Niaz Mahmud Zafri, Ming Zhang
Date: 2024-11-19 00:00:00
Tasks: Diversity, Feature Importance

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between the built environment and travel in Austin, Texas, over a 20-year period. Using three waves of household travel surveys from 1997, 2006, and 2017, the research employs a repeated cross-sectional approach to address the limitations of traditional longitudinal and cross-sectional studies. Methodologically, it integrates machine learning and inferential modeling to uncover non-linear relationships and threshold effects of built environment characteristics on travel. Findings reveal that the built environment serves as a sustainable tool for managing travel in the long term, contributing 50% or more to the total feature importance in predicting individual travel-surpassing the combined effects of personal and household characteristics. Increased transit accessibility, local and regional destination accessibility, population and employment density, and diversity significantly reduce travel, particularly within their identified thresholds, though the magnitude of their influence varies across time periods. These findings highlight the potential of smart growth policies-such as expanding transit accessibility, promoting high-density and mixed-use development, and discouraging single-use development and peripheral sprawl-as effective strategies to reduce car dependency and manage travel demand.
Community Detection with Heterogeneous Block Covariance Model
Authors: Xiang Li, Yunpeng Zhao, Qing Pan, Ning Hao
Date: 2024-12-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Community Detection, model, Stochastic Block Model

Community detection is the task of clustering objects based on their pairwise relationships. Most of the model-based community detection methods, such as the stochastic block model and its variants, are designed for networks with binary (yes/no) edges. In many practical scenarios, edges often possess continuous weights, spanning positive and negative values, which reflect varying levels of connectivity. To address this challenge, we introduce the heterogeneous block covariance model (HBCM) that defines a community structure within the covariance matrix, where edges have signed and continuous weights. Furthermore, it takes into account the heterogeneity of objects when forming connections with other objects within a community. A novel variational expectation-maximization algorithm is proposed to estimate the group membership. The HBCM provides provable consistent estimates of memberships, and its promising performance is observed in numerical simulations with different setups. The model is applied to a single-cell RNA-seq dataset of a mouse embryo and a stock price dataset. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
The Vulnerability of Language Model Benchmarks: Do They Accurately Reflect True LLM Performance?
Authors: Sourav Banerjee, Ayushi Agarwal, Eishkaran Singh
Date: 2024-12-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Language Modeling, Language Modelling, MMLU

The pursuit of leaderboard rankings in Large Language Models (LLMs) has created a fundamental paradox: models excel at standardized tests while failing to demonstrate genuine language understanding and adaptability. Our systematic analysis of NLP evaluation frameworks reveals pervasive vulnerabilities across the evaluation spectrum, from basic metrics to complex benchmarks like GLUE and MMLU. These vulnerabilities manifest through benchmark exploitation, dataset contamination, and evaluation bias, creating a false perception of progress in language understanding capabilities. Through extensive review of contemporary evaluation approaches, we identify significant limitations in static benchmark designs, human evaluation protocols, and LLM-as-judge frameworks, all of which compromise the reliability of current performance assessments. As LLM capabilities evolve and existing benchmarks become redundant, we lay the groundwork for new evaluation methods that resist manipulation, minimize data contamination, and assess domain-specific tasks. This requires frameworks that are adapted dynamically, addressing current limitations and providing a more accurate reflection of LLM performance.
How to Correctly do Semantic Backpropagation on Language-based Agentic Systems
Authors: Wenyi Wang, Hisham A. Alyahya, Dylan R. Ashley, Oleg Serikov, Dmitrii Khizbullin, Francesco Faccio, Jürgen Schmidhuber
Date: 2024-12-04 00:00:00
Tasks: GSM8K

Language-based agentic systems have shown great promise in recent years, transitioning from solving small-scale research problems to being deployed in challenging real-world tasks. However, optimizing these systems often requires substantial manual labor. Recent studies have demonstrated that these systems can be represented as computational graphs, enabling automatic optimization. Despite these advancements, most current efforts in Graph-based Agentic System Optimization (GASO) fail to properly assign feedback to the system's components given feedback on the system's output. To address this challenge, we formalize the concept of semantic backpropagation with semantic gradients -- a generalization that aligns several key optimization techniques, including reverse-mode automatic differentiation and the more recent TextGrad by exploiting the relationship among nodes with a common successor. This serves as a method for computing directional information about how changes to each component of an agentic system might improve the system's output. To use these gradients, we propose a method called semantic gradient descent which enables us to solve GASO effectively. Our results on both BIG-Bench Hard and GSM8K show that our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods for solving GASO problems. A detailed ablation study on the LIAR dataset demonstrates the parsimonious nature of our method. A full copy of our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/HishamAlyahya/semantic_backprop
Fairness without Demographics through Learning Graph of Gradients
Authors: Yingtao Luo, ZHIXUN LI, Qiang Liu, Jun Zhu
Date: 2024-12-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Attribute, Fairness

Machine learning systems are notoriously prone to biased predictions about certain demographic groups, leading to algorithmic fairness issues. Due to privacy concerns and data quality problems, some demographic information may not be available in the training data and the complex interaction of different demographics can lead to a lot of unknown minority subpopulations, which all limit the applicability of group fairness. Many existing works on fairness without demographics assume the correlation between groups and features. However, we argue that the model gradients are also valuable for fairness without demographics. In this paper, we show that the correlation between gradients and groups can help identify and improve group fairness. With an adversarial weighting architecture, we construct a graph where samples with similar gradients are connected and learn the weights of different samples from it. Unlike the surrogate grouping methods that cluster groups from features and labels as proxy sensitive attribute, our method leverages the graph structure as a soft grouping mechanism, which is much more robust to noises. The results show that our method is robust to noise and can improve fairness significantly without decreasing the overall accuracy too much.
Hyper: Hyperparameter Robust Efficient Exploration in Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Yiran Wang, Chenshu Liu, Yunfan Li, Sanae Amani, Bolei Zhou, Lin F. Yang
Date: 2024-12-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Efficient Exploration, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

The exploration \& exploitation dilemma poses significant challenges in reinforcement learning (RL). Recently, curiosity-based exploration methods achieved great success in tackling hard-exploration problems. However, they necessitate extensive hyperparameter tuning on different environments, which heavily limits the applicability and accessibility of this line of methods. In this paper, we characterize this problem via analysis of the agent behavior, concluding the fundamental difficulty of choosing a proper hyperparameter. We then identify the difficulty and the instability of the optimization when the agent learns with curiosity. We propose our method, hyperparameter robust exploration (\textbf{Hyper}), which extensively mitigates the problem by effectively regularizing the visitation of the exploration and decoupling the exploitation to ensure stable training. We theoretically justify that \textbf{Hyper} is provably efficient under function approximation setting and empirically demonstrate its appealing performance and robustness in various environments.
What Do Machine Learning Researchers Mean by "Reproducible"?
Authors: Edward Raff, Michel Benaroch, Sagar Samtani, Andrew L. Farris
Date: 2024-12-05 00:00:00

The concern that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are entering a "reproducibility crisis" has spurred significant research in the past few years. Yet with each paper, it is often unclear what someone means by "reproducibility". Our work attempts to clarify the scope of "reproducibility" as displayed by the community at large. In doing so, we propose to refine the research to eight general topic areas. In this light, we see that each of these areas contains many works that do not advertise themselves as being about "reproducibility", in part because they go back decades before the matter came to broader attention.
Weak-to-Strong Generalization Through the Data-Centric Lens
Authors: Changho Shin, John Cooper, Frederic Sala
Date: 2024-12-05 00:00:00

The weak-to-strong generalization phenomenon is the driver for important machine learning applications including highly data-efficient learning and, most recently, performing superalignment. While decades of research have resulted in numerous algorithms that produce strong empirical performance, understanding what aspects of data enable weak-to-strong generalization has been understudied. We propose a simple data-centric mechanism that characterizes weak-to-strong generalization: the overlap density. Intuitively, generalization tracks the number of points that contain overlaps, i.e., both easy patterns (learnable by a weak model) and challenging patterns (only learnable by a stronger model), as with such points, weak predictions can be used to learn challenging patterns by stronger models. We provide a practical overlap detection algorithm to find such points in datasets and leverage them to learn, among multiple sources of data, which to query when seeking to maximize overlap density and thereby enhance weak-to-strong generalization. We present a theoretical result showing that the generalization benefit is a function of the overlap density and a regret bound for our data selection algorithm. Empirically, we validate the mechanism and the overlap detection algorithm on a wide array of settings.
Final-Model-Only Data Attribution with a Unifying View of Gradient-Based Methods
Authors: Dennis Wei, Inkit Padhi, Soumya Ghosh, Amit Dhurandhar, Karthikeyan Natesan Ramamurthy, Maria Chang
Date: 2024-12-05 00:00:00

Training data attribution (TDA) is the task of attributing model behavior to elements in the training data. This paper draws attention to the common setting where one has access only to the final trained model, and not the training algorithm or intermediate information from training. To serve as a gold standard for TDA in this "final-model-only" setting, we propose further training, with appropriate adjustment and averaging, to measure the sensitivity of the given model to training instances. We then unify existing gradient-based methods for TDA by showing that they all approximate the further training gold standard in different ways. We investigate empirically the quality of these gradient-based approximations to further training, for tabular, image, and text datasets and models. We find that the approximation quality of first-order methods is sometimes high but decays with the amount of further training. In contrast, the approximations given by influence function methods are more stable but surprisingly lower in quality.
Fixed-Mean Gaussian Processes for Post-hoc Bayesian Deep Learning
Authors: Luis A. Ortega, Simón Rodríguez-Santana, Daniel Hernández-Lobato
Date: 2024-12-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency, Deep Learning, Gaussian Processes, Stochastic Optimization, Variational Inference

Recently, there has been an increasing interest in performing post-hoc uncertainty estimation about the predictions of pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs). Given a pre-trained DNN via back-propagation, these methods enhance the original network by adding output confidence measures, such as error bars, without compromising its initial accuracy. In this context, we introduce a novel family of sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs), where the posterior mean is fixed to any continuous function when using a universal kernel. Specifically, we fix the mean of this GP to the output of the pre-trained DNN, allowing our approach to effectively fit the GP's predictive variances to estimate the DNN prediction uncertainty. Our approach leverages variational inference (VI) for efficient stochastic optimization, with training costs that remain independent of the number of training points, scaling efficiently to large datasets such as ImageNet. The proposed method, called fixed mean GP (FMGP), is architecture-agnostic, relying solely on the pre-trained model's outputs to adjust the predictive variances. Experimental results demonstrate that FMGP improves both uncertainty estimation and computational efficiency when compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Distributionally Robust Performative Prediction
Authors: Songkai Xue, Yuekai Sun
Date: 2024-12-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction

Performative prediction aims to model scenarios where predictive outcomes subsequently influence the very systems they target. The pursuit of a performative optimum (PO) -- minimizing performative risk -- is generally reliant on modeling of the distribution map, which characterizes how a deployed ML model alters the data distribution. Unfortunately, inevitable misspecification of the distribution map can lead to a poor approximation of the true PO. To address this issue, we introduce a novel framework of distributionally robust performative prediction and study a new solution concept termed as distributionally robust performative optimum (DRPO). We show provable guarantees for DRPO as a robust approximation to the true PO when the nominal distribution map is different from the actual one. Moreover, distributionally robust performative prediction can be reformulated as an augmented performative prediction problem, enabling efficient optimization. The experimental results demonstrate that DRPO offers potential advantages over traditional PO approach when the distribution map is misspecified at either micro- or macro-level.
HunyuanVideo: A Systematic Framework For Large Video Generative Models
Authors: Weijie Kong, Qi Tian, Zijian Zhang, Rox Min, Zuozhuo Dai, Jin Zhou, Jiangfeng Xiong, Xin Li, Bo Wu, Jianwei Zhang, Kathrina Wu, Qin Lin, Junkun Yuan, Yanxin Long, Aladdin Wang, Andong Wang, Changlin Li, Duojun Huang, Fang Yang, Hao Tan, Hongmei Wang, Jacob Song, Jiawang Bai, Jianbing Wu, Jinbao Xue, Joey Wang, Kai Wang, Mengyang Liu, Pengyu Li, Shuai Li, Weiyan Wang, Wenqing Yu, Xinchi Deng, Yang Li, Yi Chen, Yutao Cui, Yuanbo Peng, Zhentao Yu, Zhiyu He, Zhiyong Xu, Zixiang Zhou, Zunnan Xu, Yangyu Tao, Qinglin Lu, Songtao Liu, Dax Zhou, Hongfa Wang, Yong Yang, Di Wang, Yuhong Liu, Jie Jiang, Caesar Zhong
Date: 2024-12-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Video Alignment, Video Generation

Recent advancements in video generation have significantly impacted daily life for both individuals and industries. However, the leading video generation models remain closed-source, resulting in a notable performance gap between industry capabilities and those available to the public. In this report, we introduce HunyuanVideo, an innovative open-source video foundation model that demonstrates performance in video generation comparable to, or even surpassing, that of leading closed-source models. HunyuanVideo encompasses a comprehensive framework that integrates several key elements, including data curation, advanced architectural design, progressive model scaling and training, and an efficient infrastructure tailored for large-scale model training and inference. As a result, we successfully trained a video generative model with over 13 billion parameters, making it the largest among all open-source models. We conducted extensive experiments and implemented a series of targeted designs to ensure high visual quality, motion dynamics, text-video alignment, and advanced filming techniques. According to evaluations by professionals, HunyuanVideo outperforms previous state-of-the-art models, including Runway Gen-3, Luma 1.6, and three top-performing Chinese video generative models. By releasing the code for the foundation model and its applications, we aim to bridge the gap between closed-source and open-source communities. This initiative will empower individuals within the community to experiment with their ideas, fostering a more dynamic and vibrant video generation ecosystem. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Tencent/HunyuanVideo.
MV-Adapter: Multi-view Consistent Image Generation Made Easy
Authors: Zehuan Huang, Yuan-Chen Guo, Haoran Wang, Ran Yi, Lizhuang Ma, Yan-Pei Cao, Lu Sheng
Date: 2024-12-04 00:00:00
Tasks: 3D Generation, Image Generation

Existing multi-view image generation methods often make invasive modifications to pre-trained text-to-image (T2I) models and require full fine-tuning, leading to (1) high computational costs, especially with large base models and high-resolution images, and (2) degradation in image quality due to optimization difficulties and scarce high-quality 3D data. In this paper, we propose the first adapter-based solution for multi-view image generation, and introduce MV-Adapter, a versatile plug-and-play adapter that enhances T2I models and their derivatives without altering the original network structure or feature space. By updating fewer parameters, MV-Adapter enables efficient training and preserves the prior knowledge embedded in pre-trained models, mitigating overfitting risks. To efficiently model the 3D geometric knowledge within the adapter, we introduce innovative designs that include duplicated self-attention layers and parallel attention architecture, enabling the adapter to inherit the powerful priors of the pre-trained models to model the novel 3D knowledge. Moreover, we present a unified condition encoder that seamlessly integrates camera parameters and geometric information, facilitating applications such as text- and image-based 3D generation and texturing. MV-Adapter achieves multi-view generation at 768 resolution on Stable Diffusion XL (SDXL), and demonstrates adaptability and versatility. It can also be extended to arbitrary view generation, enabling broader applications. We demonstrate that MV-Adapter sets a new quality standard for multi-view image generation, and opens up new possibilities due to its efficiency, adaptability and versatility.
Scaling Inference-Time Search with Vision Value Model for Improved Visual Comprehension
Authors: Xiyao Wang, Zhengyuan Yang, Linjie Li, Hongjin Lu, Yuancheng Xu, Chung-Ching Lin, Kevin Lin, Furong Huang, Lijuan Wang
Date: 2024-12-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Descriptive, Language Modeling, Language Modelling, Large Language Model, Sentence

Despite significant advancements in vision-language models (VLMs), there lacks effective approaches to enhance response quality by scaling inference-time computation. This capability is known to be a core step towards the self-improving models in recent large language model studies. In this paper, we present Vision Value Model (VisVM) that can guide VLM inference-time search to generate responses with better visual comprehension. Specifically, VisVM not only evaluates the generated sentence quality in the current search step, but also anticipates the quality of subsequent sentences that may result from the current step, thus providing a long-term value. In this way, VisVM steers VLMs away from generating sentences prone to hallucinations or insufficient detail, thereby producing higher quality responses. Experimental results demonstrate that VisVM-guided search significantly enhances VLMs' ability to generate descriptive captions with richer visual details and fewer hallucinations, compared with greedy decoding and search methods with other visual reward signals. Furthermore, we find that self-training the model with the VisVM-guided captions improve VLM's performance across a wide range of multimodal benchmarks, indicating the potential for developing self-improving VLMs. Our value model and code are available at https://github.com/si0wang/VisVM.
VidHalluc: Evaluating Temporal Hallucinations in Multimodal Large Language Models for Video Understanding
Authors: Chaoyu Li, Eun Woo Im, Pooyan Fazli
Date: 2024-12-04 00:00:00
Proceeding: CVPR 2025 1
Tasks: Hallucination, Instruction Following, Semantic Similarity, Semantic Textual Similarity, Video Understanding

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently shown significant advancements in video understanding, excelling in content reasoning and instruction-following tasks. However, hallucination, where models generate inaccurate or misleading content, remains underexplored in the video domain. Building on the observation that MLLM visual encoders often fail to distinguish visually different yet semantically similar video pairs, we introduce VidHalluc, the largest benchmark designed to examine hallucinations in MLLMs for video understanding. It consists of 5,002 videos, paired to highlight cases prone to hallucinations. VidHalluc assesses hallucinations across three critical dimensions: (1) action, (2) temporal sequence, and (3) scene transition. Comprehensive testing shows that most MLLMs are vulnerable to hallucinations across these dimensions. Furthermore, we propose DINO-HEAL, a training-free method that reduces hallucinations by incorporating spatial saliency from DINOv2 to reweight visual features during inference. Our results show that DINO-HEAL consistently improves performance on VidHalluc, achieving an average improvement of 3.02% in mitigating hallucinations across all tasks. Both the VidHalluc benchmark and DINO-HEAL code are available at https://people-robots.github.io/vidhalluc.