pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Falsification of Unconfoundedness by Testing Independence of Causal Mechanisms
Authors: Rickard K. A. Karlsson, Jesse H. Krijthe
Date: 2025-02-10 00:00:00

A major challenge in estimating treatment effects in observational studies is the reliance on untestable conditions such as the assumption of no unmeasured confounding. In this work, we propose an algorithm that can falsify the assumption of no unmeasured confounding in a setting with observational data from multiple heterogeneous sources, which we refer to as environments. Our proposed falsification strategy leverages a key observation that unmeasured confounding can cause observed causal mechanisms to appear dependent. Building on this observation, we develop a novel two-stage procedure that detects these dependencies with high statistical power while controlling false positives. The algorithm does not require access to randomized data and, in contrast to other falsification approaches, functions even under transportability violations when the environment has a direct effect on the outcome of interest. To showcase the practical relevance of our approach, we show that our method is able to efficiently detect confounding on both simulated and semi-synthetic data.
Adversarial Transform Particle Filters
Authors: Chengxin Gong, Wei Lin, Cheng Zhang
Date: 2025-02-10 00:00:00
Tasks: Generalization Bounds, State Space Models

The particle filter (PF) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) are widely used for approximate inference in state-space models. From a Bayesian perspective, these algorithms represent the prior by an ensemble of particles and update it to the posterior with new observations over time. However, the PF often suffers from weight degeneracy in high-dimensional settings, whereas the EnKF relies on linear Gaussian assumptions that can introduce significant approximation errors. In this paper, we propose the Adversarial Transform Particle Filter (ATPF), a novel filtering framework that combines the strengths of the PF and the EnKF through adversarial learning. Specifically, importance sampling is used to ensure statistical consistency as in the PF, while adversarially learned transformations, such as neural networks, allow accurate posterior matching for nonlinear and non-Gaussian systems. In addition, we incorporate kernel methods to ease optimization and leverage regularization techniques based on optimal transport for better statistical properties and numerical stability. We provide theoretical guarantees, including generalization bounds for both the analysis and forecast steps of ATPF. Extensive experiments across various nonlinear and non-Gaussian scenarios demonstrate the effectiveness and practical advantages of our method.
Post-detection inference for sequential changepoint localization
Authors: Aytijhya Saha, Aaditya Ramdas
Date: 2025-02-10 00:00:00

This paper addresses a fundamental but largely unexplored challenge in sequential changepoint analysis: conducting inference following a detected change. We study the problem of localizing the changepoint using only the data observed up to a data-dependent stopping time at which a sequential detection algorithm $\mathcal A$ declares a change. We first construct confidence sets for the unknown changepoint when pre- and post-change distributions are assumed to be known. We then extend our framework to composite pre- and post-change scenarios. We impose no conditions on the observation space or on $\mathcal A$ -- we only need to be able to run $\mathcal A$ on simulated data sequences. In summary, this work offers both theoretically sound and practically effective tools for sequential changepoint localization.
Smooth Sailing: Lipschitz-Driven Uncertainty Quantification for Spatial Association
Authors: David R. Burt, Renato Berlinghieri, Stephen Bates, Tamara Broderick
Date: 2025-02-09 00:00:00
Tasks: Epidemiology, Uncertainty Quantification, valid

Estimating associations between spatial covariates and responses - rather than merely predicting responses - is central to environmental science, epidemiology, and economics. For instance, public health officials might be interested in whether air pollution has a strictly positive association with a health outcome, and the magnitude of any effect. Standard machine learning methods often provide accurate predictions but offer limited insight into covariate-response relationships. And we show that existing methods for constructing confidence (or credible) intervals for associations fail to provide nominal coverage in the face of model misspecification and distribution shift - despite both being essentially always present in spatial problems. We introduce a method that constructs valid frequentist confidence intervals for associations in spatial settings. Our method requires minimal assumptions beyond a form of spatial smoothness. In particular, we do not require model correctness or covariate overlap between training and target locations. Our approach is the first to guarantee nominal coverage in this setting and outperforms existing techniques in both real and simulated experiments.
Generalized Venn and Venn-Abers Calibration with Applications in Conformal Prediction
Authors: Lars van der Laan, Ahmed Alaa
Date: 2025-02-08 00:00:00
Tasks: Binary Classification, Conformal Prediction, Prediction, Prediction Intervals

Ensuring model calibration is critical for reliable predictions, yet popular distribution-free methods, such as histogram binning and isotonic regression, provide only asymptotic guarantees. We introduce a unified framework for Venn and Venn-Abers calibration, generalizing Vovk's binary classification approach to arbitrary prediction tasks and loss functions. Venn calibration leverages binning calibrators to construct prediction sets that contain at least one marginally perfectly calibrated point prediction in finite samples, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the calibration process. The width of these sets shrinks asymptotically to zero, converging to a conditionally calibrated point prediction. Furthermore, we propose Venn multicalibration, a novel methodology for finite-sample calibration across subpopulations. For quantile loss, group-conditional and multicalibrated conformal prediction arise as special cases of Venn multicalibration, and Venn calibration produces novel conformal prediction intervals that achieve quantile-conditional coverage. As a separate contribution, we extend distribution-free conditional calibration guarantees of histogram binning and isotonic calibration to general losses.
GST-UNet: Spatiotemporal Causal Inference with Time-Varying Confounders
Authors: Miruna Oprescu, David K. Park, Xihaier Luo, Shinjae Yoo, Nathan Kallus
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference

Estimating causal effects from spatiotemporal data is a key challenge in fields such as public health, social policy, and environmental science, where controlled experiments are often infeasible. However, existing causal inference methods relying on observational data face significant limitations: they depend on strong structural assumptions to address spatiotemporal challenges $\unicode{x2013}$ such as interference, spatial confounding, and temporal carryover effects $\unicode{x2013}$ or fail to account for $\textit{time-varying confounders}$. These confounders, influenced by past treatments and outcomes, can themselves shape future treatments and outcomes, creating feedback loops that complicate traditional adjustment strategies. To address these challenges, we introduce the $\textbf{GST-UNet}$ ($\textbf{G}$-computation $\textbf{S}$patio-$\textbf{T}$emporal $\textbf{UNet}$), a novel end-to-end neural network framework designed to estimate treatment effects in complex spatial and temporal settings. The GST-UNet leverages regression-based iterative G-computation to explicitly adjust for time-varying confounders, providing valid estimates of potential outcomes and treatment effects. To the best of our knowledge, the GST-UNet is the first neural model to account for complex, non-linear dynamics and time-varying confounders in spatiotemporal interventions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the GST-UNet through extensive simulation studies and showcase its practical utility with a real-world analysis of the impact of wildfire smoke on respiratory hospitalizations during the 2018 California Camp Fire. Our results highlight the potential of GST-UNet to advance spatiotemporal causal inference across a wide range of policy-driven and scientific applications.
Survey on Vision-Language-Action Models
Authors: Adilzhan Adilkhanov, Amir Yelenov, Assylkhan Seitzhanov, Ayan Mazhitov, Azamat Abdikarimov, Danissa Sandykbayeva, Daryn Kenzhebek, Daulet Baimukashev, Dinmukhammed Mukashev, Ilyas Umurbekov, Jabrail Chumakov, Kamila Spanova, Karina Burunchina, Rasul Yermagambet, Rustam Chibar, Saltanat Seitzhan, Soibkhon Khajikhanov, Tasbolat Taunyazov, Temirlan Galimzhanov, Temirlan Kaiyrbay, Tleukhan Mussin, Togzhan Syrymova, Valeriya Kostyukova, Yermakhan Kassym, Madina Yergibay, Margulan Issa, Moldir Zabirova, Nurdaulet Zhuzbay, Nurlan Kabdyshev, Nurlan Zhaniyar, Yerkebulan Massalim, Zerde Nurbayeva, Zhanat Kappassov
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: Review Generation, Survey, Vision-Language-Action

This paper presents an AI-generated review of Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, summarizing key methodologies, findings, and future directions. The content is produced using large language models (LLMs) and is intended only for demonstration purposes. This work does not represent original research, but highlights how AI can help automate literature reviews. As AI-generated content becomes more prevalent, ensuring accuracy, reliability, and proper synthesis remains a challenge. Future research will focus on developing a structured framework for AI-assisted literature reviews, exploring techniques to enhance citation accuracy, source credibility, and contextual understanding. By examining the potential and limitations of LLM in academic writing, this study aims to contribute to the broader discussion of integrating AI into research workflows. This work serves as a preliminary step toward establishing systematic approaches for leveraging AI in literature review generation, making academic knowledge synthesis more efficient and scalable.
Self-Supervised Prompt Optimization
Authors: Jinyu Xiang, Jiayi Zhang, Zhaoyang Yu, Fengwei Teng, Jinhao Tu, Xinbing Liang, Sirui Hong, Chenglin Wu, Yuyu Luo
Date: 2025-02-07 00:00:00

Well-designed prompts are crucial for enhancing Large language models' (LLMs) reasoning capabilities while aligning their outputs with task requirements across diverse domains. However, manually designed prompts require expertise and iterative experimentation. While existing prompt optimization methods aim to automate this process, they rely heavily on external references such as ground truth or by humans, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where such data is unavailable or costly to obtain. To address this, we propose Self-Supervised Prompt Optimization (SPO), a cost-efficient framework that discovers effective prompts for both closed and open-ended tasks without requiring external reference. Motivated by the observations that prompt quality manifests directly in LLM outputs and LLMs can effectively assess adherence to task requirements, we derive evaluation and optimization signals purely from output comparisons. Specifically, SPO selects superior prompts through pairwise output comparisons evaluated by an LLM evaluator, followed by an LLM optimizer that aligns outputs with task requirements. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SPO outperforms state-of-the-art prompt optimization methods, achieving comparable or superior results with significantly lower costs (e.g., 1.1% to 5.6% of existing methods) and fewer samples (e.g., three samples). The code is available at https://github.com/geekan/MetaGPT.
Knowledge Graph-Guided Retrieval Augmented Generation
Authors: Xiangrong Zhu, Yuexiang Xie, Yi Liu, Yaliang Li, Wei Hu
Date: 2025-02-08 00:00:00
Tasks: Diversity, Hallucination, Knowledge Graphs, RAG, Retrieval, Retrieval-augmented Generation

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a promising technology for addressing hallucination issues in the responses generated by large language models (LLMs). Existing studies on RAG primarily focus on applying semantic-based approaches to retrieve isolated relevant chunks, which ignore their intrinsic relationships. In this paper, we propose a novel Knowledge Graph-Guided Retrieval Augmented Generation (KG$^2$RAG) framework that utilizes knowledge graphs (KGs) to provide fact-level relationships between chunks, improving the diversity and coherence of the retrieved results. Specifically, after performing a semantic-based retrieval to provide seed chunks, KG$^2$RAG employs a KG-guided chunk expansion process and a KG-based chunk organization process to deliver relevant and important knowledge in well-organized paragraphs. Extensive experiments conducted on the HotpotQA dataset and its variants demonstrate the advantages of KG$^2$RAG compared to existing RAG-based approaches, in terms of both response quality and retrieval quality.
Forbidden Science: Dual-Use AI Challenge Benchmark and Scientific Refusal Tests
Authors: David Noever, Forrest McKee
Date: 2025-02-08 00:00:00
Tasks: valid

The development of robust safety benchmarks for large language models requires open, reproducible datasets that can measure both appropriate refusal of harmful content and potential over-restriction of legitimate scientific discourse. We present an open-source dataset and testing framework for evaluating LLM safety mechanisms across mainly controlled substance queries, analyzing four major models' responses to systematically varied prompts. Our results reveal distinct safety profiles: Claude-3.5-sonnet demonstrated the most conservative approach with 73% refusals and 27% allowances, while Mistral attempted to answer 100% of queries. GPT-3.5-turbo showed moderate restriction with 10% refusals and 90% allowances, and Grok-2 registered 20% refusals and 80% allowances. Testing prompt variation strategies revealed decreasing response consistency, from 85% with single prompts to 65% with five variations. This publicly available benchmark enables systematic evaluation of the critical balance between necessary safety restrictions and potential over-censorship of legitimate scientific inquiry, while providing a foundation for measuring progress in AI safety implementation. Chain-of-thought analysis reveals potential vulnerabilities in safety mechanisms, highlighting the complexity of implementing robust safeguards without unduly restricting desirable and valid scientific discourse.
Towards Trustworthy Retrieval Augmented Generation for Large Language Models: A Survey
Authors: Bo Ni, Zheyuan Liu, Leyao Wang, Yongjia Lei, Yuying Zhao, Xueqi Cheng, Qingkai Zeng, Luna Dong, Yinglong Xia, Krishnaram Kenthapadi, Ryan Rossi, Franck Dernoncourt, Md Mehrab Tanjim, Nesreen Ahmed, Xiaorui Liu, Wenqi Fan, Erik Blasch, Yu Wang, Meng Jiang, Tyler Derr
Date: 2025-02-08 00:00:00
Tasks: Fairness, RAG, Retrieval, Retrieval-augmented Generation

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is an advanced technique designed to address the challenges of Artificial Intelligence-Generated Content (AIGC). By integrating context retrieval into content generation, RAG provides reliable and up-to-date external knowledge, reduces hallucinations, and ensures relevant context across a wide range of tasks. However, despite RAG's success and potential, recent studies have shown that the RAG paradigm also introduces new risks, including robustness issues, privacy concerns, adversarial attacks, and accountability issues. Addressing these risks is critical for future applications of RAG systems, as they directly impact their trustworthiness. Although various methods have been developed to improve the trustworthiness of RAG methods, there is a lack of a unified perspective and framework for research in this topic. Thus, in this paper, we aim to address this gap by providing a comprehensive roadmap for developing trustworthy RAG systems. We place our discussion around five key perspectives: reliability, privacy, safety, fairness, explainability, and accountability. For each perspective, we present a general framework and taxonomy, offering a structured approach to understanding the current challenges, evaluating existing solutions, and identifying promising future research directions. To encourage broader adoption and innovation, we also highlight the downstream applications where trustworthy RAG systems have a significant impact.
Group Reasoning Emission Estimation Networks
Authors: Yanming Guo, Xiao Qian, Kevin Credit, Jin Ma
Date: 2025-02-08 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, Contrastive Learning, Information Retrieval

Accurate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reporting is critical for governments, businesses, and investors. However, adoption remains limited particularly among small and medium enterprises due to high implementation costs, fragmented emission factor databases, and a lack of robust sector classification methods. To address these challenges, we introduce Group Reasoning Emission Estimation Networks (GREEN), an AI-driven carbon accounting framework that standardizes enterprise-level emission estimation, constructs a large-scale benchmark dataset, and leverages a novel reasoning approach with large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we compile textual descriptions for 20,850 companies with validated North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) labels and align these with an economic model of carbon intensity factors. By reframing sector classification as an information retrieval task, we fine-tune Sentence-BERT models using a contrastive learning loss. To overcome the limitations of single-stage models in handling thousands of hierarchical categories, we propose a Group Reasoning method that ensembles LLM classifiers based on the natural NAICS ontology, decomposing the task into multiple sub-classification steps. We theoretically prove that this approach reduces classification uncertainty and computational complexity. Experiments on 1,114 NAICS categories yield state-of-the-art performance (83.68% Top-1, 91.47% Top-10 accuracy), and case studies on 20 companies report a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 45.88%. The project is available at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/Yvnminc/ExioNAICS.
Mix Data or Merge Models? Balancing the Helpfulness, Honesty, and Harmlessness of Large Language Model via Model Merging
Authors: Jinluan Yang, dingnan jin, Anke Tang, Li Shen, Didi Zhu, Zhengyu Chen, Ziyu Zhao, Daixin Wang, Qing Cui, Zhiqiang Zhang, Jun Zhou, Fei Wu, Kun Kuang
Date: 2025-02-08 00:00:00
Tasks: Language Modeling, Language Modelling, Large Language Model, model

Achieving balanced alignment of large language models (LLMs) in terms of Helpfulness, Honesty, and Harmlessness (3H optimization) constitutes a cornerstone of responsible AI. Existing methods like data mixture strategies face limitations, including heavy reliance on expert knowledge and conflicting optimization signals. While model merging offers parameter-level conflict-resolution strategies through integrating specialized models' parameters, its potential for 3H optimization remains underexplored. This paper systematically compares the effectiveness of model merging and data mixture methods in constructing 3H-aligned LLMs for the first time, revealing previously overlooked collaborative and conflict relationships among the 3H dimensions and discussing the advantages and drawbacks of data mixture (\textit{data-level}) and model merging (\textit{parameter-level}) methods in mitigating the conflict for balanced 3H optimization. Specially, we propose a novel \textbf{R}eweighting \textbf{E}nhanced task \textbf{S}ingular \textbf{M}erging method, \textbf{RESM}, through outlier weighting and sparsity-aware rank selection strategies to address the challenges of preference noise accumulation and layer sparsity adaptation inherent in 3H-aligned LLM merging. Extensive evaluations can verify the effectiveness and robustness of RESM compared to previous data mixture (2\%-5\% gain) and model merging (1\%-3\% gain) methods in achieving balanced LLM alignment. We release our models through \href{https://huggingface.co/Jinluan}{3H\_Merging} for further investigations.
Multi-Agent Simulator Drives Language Models for Legal Intensive Interaction
Authors: Shengbin Yue, Ting Huang, Zheng Jia, Siyuan Wang, Shujun Liu, Yun Song, Xuanjing Huang, Zhongyu Wei
Date: 2025-02-08 00:00:00

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced legal intelligence, but the scarcity of scenario data impedes the progress toward interactive legal scenarios. This paper introduces a Multi-agent Legal Simulation Driver (MASER) to scalably generate synthetic data by simulating interactive legal scenarios. Leveraging real-legal case sources, MASER ensures the consistency of legal attributes between participants and introduces a supervisory mechanism to align participants' characters and behaviors as well as addressing distractions. A Multi-stage Interactive Legal Evaluation (MILE) benchmark is further constructed to evaluate LLMs' performance in dynamic legal scenarios. Extensive experiments confirm the effectiveness of our framework.
Investigating the Zone of Proximal Development of Language Models for In-Context Learning
Authors: Peng Cui, Mrinmaya Sachan
Date: 2025-02-10 00:00:00
Tasks: In-Context Learning

In this paper, we introduce a learning analytics framework to analyze the in-context learning (ICL) behavior of large language models (LLMs) through the lens of the Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD), an established theory in educational psychology. ZPD delineates the space between what a learner is capable of doing unsupported and what the learner cannot do even with support. We adapt this concept to ICL, measuring the ZPD of LLMs based on model performance on individual examples with and without ICL. Furthermore, we propose an item response theory (IRT) model to predict the distribution of zones for LLMs. Our findings reveal a series of intricate and multifaceted behaviors of ICL, providing new insights into understanding and leveraging this technique. Finally, we demonstrate how our framework can enhance LLM in both inference and fine-tuning scenarios: (1) By predicting a model's zone of proximal development, we selectively apply ICL to queries that are most likely to benefit from demonstrations, achieving a better balance between inference cost and performance; (2) We propose a human-like curriculum for fine-tuning, which prioritizes examples within the model's ZPD. The curriculum results in improved performance, and we explain its effectiveness through an analysis of the training dynamics of LLMs.