pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Debunking with Dialogue? Exploring AI-Generated Counterspeech to Challenge Conspiracy Theories
Authors: Mareike Lisker, Christina Gottschalk, Helena Mihaljević
Date: 2025-04-23 00:00:00

Counterspeech is a key strategy against harmful online content, but scaling expert-driven efforts is challenging. Large Language Models (LLMs) present a potential solution, though their use in countering conspiracy theories is under-researched. Unlike for hate speech, no datasets exist that pair conspiracy theory comments with expert-crafted counterspeech. We address this gap by evaluating the ability of GPT-4o, Llama 3, and Mistral to effectively apply counterspeech strategies derived from psychological research provided through structured prompts. Our results show that the models often generate generic, repetitive, or superficial results. Additionally, they over-acknowledge fear and frequently hallucinate facts, sources, or figures, making their prompt-based use in practical applications problematic.
Decision Making in Hybrid Environments: A Model Aggregation Approach
Authors: Haolin Liu, Chen-Yu Wei, Julian Zimmert
Date: 2025-02-09 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making

Recent work by Foster et al. (2021, 2022, 2023b) and Xu and Zeevi (2023) developed the framework of decision estimation coefficient (DEC) that characterizes the complexity of general online decision making problems and provides a general algorithm design principle. These works, however, either focus on the pure stochastic regime where the world remains fixed over time, or the pure adversarial regime where the world arbitrarily changes over time. For the hybrid regime where the dynamics of the world is fixed while the reward arbitrarily changes, they only give pessimistic bounds on the decision complexity. In this work, we propose a general extension of DEC that more precisely characterizes this case. Besides applications in special cases, our framework leads to a flexible algorithm design where the learner learns over subsets of the hypothesis set, trading estimation complexity with decision complexity, which could be of independent interest. Our work covers model-based learning and model-free learning in the hybrid regime, with a newly proposed extension of the bilinear classes (Du et al., 2021) to the adversarial-reward case. In addition, our method improves the best-known regret bounds for linear Q*/V* MDPs in the pure stochastic regime.
Preference-centric Bandits: Optimality of Mixtures and Regret-efficient Algorithms
Authors: Meltem Tatlı, Arpan Mukherjee, Prashanth L. A., Karthikeyan Shanmugam, Ali Tajer
Date: 2025-04-29 00:00:00
Tasks: Multi-Armed Bandits, Navigate

The objective of canonical multi-armed bandits is to identify and repeatedly select an arm with the largest reward, often in the form of the expected value of the arm's probability distribution. Such a utilitarian perspective and focus on the probability models' first moments, however, is agnostic to the distributions' tail behavior and their implications for variability and risks in decision-making. This paper introduces a principled framework for shifting from expectation-based evaluation to an alternative reward formulation, termed a preference metric (PM). The PMs can place the desired emphasis on different reward realization and can encode a richer modeling of preferences that incorporate risk aversion, robustness, or other desired attitudes toward uncertainty. A fundamentally distinct observation in such a PM-centric perspective is that designing bandit algorithms will have a significantly different principle: as opposed to the reward-based models in which the optimal sampling policy converges to repeatedly sampling from the single best arm, in the PM-centric framework the optimal policy converges to selecting a mix of arms based on specific mixing weights. Designing such mixture policies departs from the principles for designing bandit algorithms in significant ways, primarily because of uncountable mixture possibilities. The paper formalizes the PM-centric framework and presents two algorithm classes (horizon-dependent and anytime) that learn and track mixtures in a regret-efficient fashion. These algorithms have two distinctions from their canonical counterparts: (i) they involve an estimation routine to form reliable estimates of optimal mixtures, and (ii) they are equipped with tracking mechanisms to navigate arm selection fractions to track the optimal mixtures. These algorithms' regret guarantees are investigated under various algebraic forms of the PMs.
New Recipe for Semi-supervised Community Detection: Clique Annealing under Crystallization Kinetics
Authors: Ling Cheng, Jiashu Pu, Ruicheng Liang, Qian Shao, Hezhe Qiao, Feida Zhu
Date: 2025-04-22 00:00:00
Tasks: Community Detection

Semi-supervised community detection methods are widely used for identifying specific communities due to the label scarcity. Existing semi-supervised community detection methods typically involve two learning stages learning in both initial identification and subsequent adjustment, which often starts from an unreasonable community core candidate. Moreover, these methods encounter scalability issues because they depend on reinforcement learning and generative adversarial networks, leading to higher computational costs and restricting the selection of candidates. To address these limitations, we draw a parallel between crystallization kinetics and community detection to integrate the spontaneity of the annealing process into community detection. Specifically, we liken community detection to identifying a crystal subgrain (core) that expands into a complete grain (community) through a process similar to annealing. Based on this finding, we propose CLique ANNealing (CLANN), which applies kinetics concepts to community detection by integrating these principles into the optimization process to strengthen the consistency of the community core. Subsequently, a learning-free Transitive Annealer was employed to refine the first-stage candidates by merging neighboring cliques and repositioning the community core, enabling a spontaneous growth process that enhances scalability. Extensive experiments on \textbf{43} different network settings demonstrate that CLANN outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple real-world datasets, showcasing its exceptional efficacy and efficiency in community detection.
Conditional independence testing with a single realization of a multivariate nonstationary nonlinear time series
Authors: Michael Wieck-Sosa, Michel F. C. Haddad, Aaditya Ramdas
Date: 2025-04-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Discovery, Time Series, Time Series Analysis, Variable Selection

Identifying relationships among stochastic processes is a key goal in disciplines that deal with complex temporal systems, such as economics. While the standard toolkit for multivariate time series analysis has many advantages, it can be difficult to capture nonlinear dynamics using linear vector autoregressive models. This difficulty has motivated the development of methods for variable selection, causal discovery, and graphical modeling for nonlinear time series, which routinely employ nonparametric tests for conditional independence. In this paper, we introduce the first framework for conditional independence testing that works with a single realization of a nonstationary nonlinear process. The key technical ingredients are time-varying nonlinear regression, time-varying covariance estimation, and a distribution-uniform strong Gaussian approximation.
Wasserstein-Aitchison GAN for angular measures of multivariate extremes
Authors: Stéphane Lhaut, Holger Rootzén, Johan Segers
Date: 2025-04-30 00:00:00

Economically responsible mitigation of multivariate extreme risks -- extreme rainfall in a large area, huge variations of many stock prices, widespread breakdowns in transportation systems -- requires estimates of the probabilities that such risks will materialize in the future. This paper develops a new method, Wasserstein--Aitchison Generative Adversarial Networks (WA-GAN), which provides simulated values of future $d$-dimensional multivariate extreme events and which hence can be used to give estimates of such probabilities. The main hypothesis is that, after transforming the observations to the unit-Pareto scale, their distribution is regularly varying in the sense that the distributions of their radial and angular components (with respect to the $L_1$-norm) converge and become asymptotically independent as the radius gets large. The method is a combination of standard extreme value analysis modeling of the tails of the marginal distributions with nonparametric GAN modeling of the angular distribution. For the latter, the angular values are transformed to Aitchison coordinates in a full $(d-1)$-dimensional linear space, and a Wasserstein GAN is trained on these coordinates and used to generate new values. A reverse transformation is then applied to these values and gives simulated values on the original data scale. The method shows good performance compared to other existing methods in the literature, both in terms of capturing the dependence structure of the extremes in the data, as well as in generating accurate new extremes of the data distribution. The comparison is performed on simulated multivariate extremes from a logistic model in dimensions up to 50 and on a 30-dimensional financial data set.
Kernel Density Machines
Authors: Damir Filipovic, Paul Schneider
Date: 2025-04-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency

We introduce kernel density machines (KDM), a nonparametric estimator of a Radon--Nikodym derivative, based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. KDM applies to general probability measures on countably generated measurable spaces under minimal assumptions. For computational efficiency, we incorporate a low-rank approximation with precisely controlled error that grants scalability to large-sample settings. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees, including asymptotic consistency, a functional central limit theorem, and finite-sample error bounds, establishing a strong foundation for practical use. Empirical results based on simulated and real data demonstrate the efficacy and precision of KDM.
Capturing Conditional Dependence via Auto-regressive Diffusion Models
Authors: Xunpeng Huang, Yujin Han, Difan Zou, Yian Ma, Tong Zhang
Date: 2025-04-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Video Generation

Diffusion models have demonstrated appealing performance in both image and video generation. However, many works discover that they struggle to capture important, high-level relationships that are present in the real world. For example, they fail to learn physical laws from data, and even fail to understand that the objects in the world exist in a stable fashion. This is due to the fact that important conditional dependence structures are not adequately captured in the vanilla diffusion models. In this work, we initiate an in-depth study on strengthening the diffusion model to capture the conditional dependence structures in the data. In particular, we examine the efficacy of the auto-regressive (AR) diffusion models for such purpose and develop the first theoretical results on the sampling error of AR diffusion models under (possibly) the mildest data assumption. Our theoretical findings indicate that, compared with typical diffusion models, the AR variant produces samples with a reduced gap in approximating the data conditional distribution. On the other hand, the overall inference time of the AR-diffusion models is only moderately larger than that for the vanilla diffusion models, making them still practical for large scale applications. We also provide empirical results showing that when there is clear conditional dependence structure in the data, the AR diffusion models captures such structure, whereas vanilla DDPM fails to do so. On the other hand, when there is no obvious conditional dependence across patches of the data, AR diffusion does not outperform DDPM.
Contextual Online Uncertainty-Aware Preference Learning for Human Feedback
Authors: Nan Lu, Ethan X. Fang, Junwei Lu
Date: 2025-04-27 00:00:00
Tasks: Anatomy

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become a pivotal paradigm in artificial intelligence to align large models with human preferences. In this paper, we propose a novel statistical framework to simultaneously conduct the online decision-making and statistical inference on the optimal model using human preference data based on dynamic contextual information. Our approach introduces an efficient decision strategy that achieves both the optimal regret bound and the asymptotic distribution of the estimators. A key challenge in RLHF is handling the dependent online human preference outcomes with dynamic contexts. To address this, in the methodological aspect, we propose a two-stage algorithm starting with $\epsilon$-greedy followed by exploitations; in the theoretical aspect, we tailor anti-concentration inequalities and matrix martingale concentration techniques to derive the uniform estimation rate and asymptotic normality of the estimators using dependent samples from both stages. Extensive simulation results demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art strategies. We apply the proposed framework to analyze the human preference data for ranking large language models on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding dataset, yielding insightful results on the performance of different large language models for medical anatomy knowledge.
SCRAG: Social Computing-Based Retrieval Augmented Generation for Community Response Forecasting in Social Media Environments
Authors: Dachun Sun, You Lyu, Jinning Li, Yizhuo Chen, Tianshi Wang, Tomoyoshi Kimura, Tarek Abdelzaher
Date: 2025-04-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Articles, Public Relations, RAG, Retrieval-augmented Generation

This paper introduces SCRAG, a prediction framework inspired by social computing, designed to forecast community responses to real or hypothetical social media posts. SCRAG can be used by public relations specialists (e.g., to craft messaging in ways that avoid unintended misinterpretations) or public figures and influencers (e.g., to anticipate social responses), among other applications related to public sentiment prediction, crisis management, and social what-if analysis. While large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in generating coherent and contextually rich text, their reliance on static training data and susceptibility to hallucinations limit their effectiveness at response forecasting in dynamic social media environments. SCRAG overcomes these challenges by integrating LLMs with a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) technique rooted in social computing. Specifically, our framework retrieves (i) historical responses from the target community to capture their ideological, semantic, and emotional makeup, and (ii) external knowledge from sources such as news articles to inject time-sensitive context. This information is then jointly used to forecast the responses of the target community to new posts or narratives. Extensive experiments across six scenarios on the X platform (formerly Twitter), tested with various embedding models and LLMs, demonstrate over 10% improvements on average in key evaluation metrics. A concrete example further shows its effectiveness in capturing diverse ideologies and nuances. Our work provides a social computing tool for applications where accurate and concrete insights into community responses are crucial.
A Hybrid Mixture of $t$-Factor Analyzers for Clustering High-dimensional Data
Authors: Kazeem Kareem, Fan Dai
Date: 2025-04-29 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency

This paper develops a novel hybrid approach for estimating the mixture model of $t$-factor analyzers (MtFA) that employs multivariate $t$-distribution and factor model to cluster and characterize grouped data. The traditional estimation method for MtFA faces computational challenges, particularly in high-dimensional settings, where the eigendecomposition of large covariance matrices and the iterative nature of Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms lead to scalability issues. We propose a computational scheme that integrates a profile likelihood method into the EM framework to efficiently obtain the model parameter estimates. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated through simulations showcasing its superior computational efficiency compared to the existing method, while preserving clustering accuracy and resilience against outliers. Our method is applied to cluster the Gamma-ray bursts, reinforcing several claims in the literature that Gamma-ray bursts have heterogeneous subpopulations and providing characterizations of the estimated groups.
Equivariant non-linear maps for neural networks on homogeneous spaces
Authors: Elias Nyholm, Oscar Carlsson, Maurice Weiler, Daniel Persson
Date: 2025-04-29 00:00:00

This paper presents a novel framework for non-linear equivariant neural network layers on homogeneous spaces. The seminal work of Cohen et al. on equivariant $G$-CNNs on homogeneous spaces characterized the representation theory of such layers in the linear setting, finding that they are given by convolutions with kernels satisfying so-called steerability constraints. Motivated by the empirical success of non-linear layers, such as self-attention or input dependent kernels, we set out to generalize these insights to the non-linear setting. We derive generalized steerability constraints that any such layer needs to satisfy and prove the universality of our construction. The insights gained into the symmetry-constrained functional dependence of equivariant operators on feature maps and group elements informs the design of future equivariant neural network layers. We demonstrate how several common equivariant network architectures - $G$-CNNs, implicit steerable kernel networks, conventional and relative position embedded attention based transformers, and LieTransformers - may be derived from our framework.
MobileCity: An Efficient Framework for Large-Scale Urban Behavior Simulation
Authors: Xiaotong Ye, Nicolas Bougie, Toshihiko Yamasaki, Narimasa Watanabe
Date: 2025-04-18 00:00:00

Generative agents offer promising capabilities for simulating realistic urban behaviors. However, existing methods oversimplify transportation choices in modern cities, and require prohibitive computational resources for large-scale population simulation. To address these limitations, we first present a virtual city that features multiple functional buildings and transportation modes. Then, we conduct extensive surveys to model behavioral choices and mobility preferences among population groups. Building on these insights, we introduce a simulation framework that captures the complexity of urban mobility while remaining scalable, enabling the simulation of over 4,000 agents. To assess the realism of the generated behaviors, we perform a series of micro and macro-level analyses. Beyond mere performance comparison, we explore insightful experiments, such as predicting crowd density from movement patterns and identifying trends in vehicle preferences across agent demographics.
S2Vec: Self-Supervised Geospatial Embeddings
Authors: Shushman Choudhury, Elad Aharoni, Chandrakumari Suvarna, Iveel Tsogsuren, Abdul Rahman Kreidieh, Chun-Ta Lu, Neha Arora
Date: 2025-04-10 00:00:00

Scalable general-purpose representations of the built environment are crucial for geospatial artificial intelligence applications. This paper introduces S2Vec, a novel self-supervised framework for learning such geospatial embeddings. S2Vec uses the S2 Geometry library to partition large areas into discrete S2 cells, rasterizes built environment feature vectors within cells as images, and applies masked autoencoding on these rasterized images to encode the feature vectors. This approach yields task-agnostic embeddings that capture local feature characteristics and broader spatial relationships. We evaluate S2Vec on three large-scale socioeconomic prediction tasks, showing its competitive performance against state-of-the-art image-based embeddings. We also explore the benefits of combining S2Vec embeddings with image-based embeddings downstream, showing that such multimodal fusion can often improve performance. Our results highlight how S2Vec can learn effective general-purpose geospatial representations and how it can complement other data modalities in geospatial artificial intelligence.
Does Feedback Help in Bandits with Arm Erasures?
Authors: Merve Karakas, Osama Hanna, Lin F. Yang, Christina Fragouli
Date: 2025-04-29 00:00:00

We study a distributed multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem over arm erasure channels, motivated by the increasing adoption of MAB algorithms over communication-constrained networks. In this setup, the learner communicates the chosen arm to play to an agent over an erasure channel with probability $\epsilon \in [0,1)$; if an erasure occurs, the agent continues pulling the last successfully received arm; the learner always observes the reward of the arm pulled. In past work, we considered the case where the agent cannot convey feedback to the learner, and thus the learner does not know whether the arm played is the requested or the last successfully received one. In this paper, we instead consider the case where the agent can send feedback to the learner on whether the arm request was received, and thus the learner exactly knows which arm was played. Surprisingly, we prove that erasure feedback does not improve the worst-case regret upper bound order over the previously studied no-feedback setting. In particular, we prove a regret lower bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{KT} + K / (1 - \epsilon))$, where $K$ is the number of arms and $T$ the time horizon, that matches no-feedback upper bounds up to logarithmic factors. We note however that the availability of feedback enables simpler algorithm designs that may achieve better constants (albeit not better order) regret bounds; we design one such algorithm and evaluate its performance numerically.
What's Wrong with Your Synthetic Tabular Data? Using Explainable AI to Evaluate Generative Models
Authors: Jan Kapar, Niklas Koenen, Martin Jullum
Date: 2025-04-29 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual, Feature Importance, Synthetic Data Evaluation

Evaluating synthetic tabular data is challenging, since they can differ from the real data in so many ways. There exist numerous metrics of synthetic data quality, ranging from statistical distances to predictive performance, often providing conflicting results. Moreover, they fail to explain or pinpoint the specific weaknesses in the synthetic data. To address this, we apply explainable AI (XAI) techniques to a binary detection classifier trained to distinguish real from synthetic data. While the classifier identifies distributional differences, XAI concepts such as feature importance and feature effects, analyzed through methods like permutation feature importance, partial dependence plots, Shapley values and counterfactual explanations, reveal why synthetic data are distinguishable, highlighting inconsistencies, unrealistic dependencies, or missing patterns. This interpretability increases transparency in synthetic data evaluation and provides deeper insights beyond conventional metrics, helping diagnose and improve synthetic data quality. We apply our approach to two tabular datasets and generative models, showing that it uncovers issues overlooked by standard evaluation techniques.