pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion
Authors: Ryan Greenblatt, Buck Shlegeris, Kshitij Sachan, Fabien Roger
Date: 2023-12-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Red Teaming

As large language models (LLMs) become more powerful and are deployed more autonomously, it will be increasingly important to prevent them from causing harmful outcomes. Researchers have investigated a variety of safety techniques for this purpose, e.g. using models to review the outputs of other models, or red-teaming techniques to surface subtle failure modes. However, researchers have not evaluated whether such techniques still ensure safety if the model is itself intentionally trying to subvert them. In this paper, we develop and evaluate pipelines of safety techniques ("protocols") that are robust to intentional subversion. We investigate a scenario in which we want to solve a sequence of programming problems, using access to a powerful but untrusted model (in our case, GPT-4), access to a less powerful trusted model (in our case, GPT-3.5), and limited access to high-quality trusted labor. We investigate protocols that aim to never submit solutions containing backdoors, which we operationalize here as logical errors that are not caught by test cases. We investigate a range of protocols and test each against strategies that the untrusted model could use to subvert them. One protocol is what we call trusted editing. This protocol first asks GPT-4 to write code, and then asks GPT-3.5 to rate the suspiciousness of that code. If the code is below some suspiciousness threshold, it is submitted. Otherwise, GPT-3.5 edits the solution to remove parts that seem suspicious and then submits the edited code. Another protocol is untrusted monitoring. This protocol asks GPT-4 to write code, and then asks another instance of GPT-4 whether the code is backdoored, using various techniques to prevent the GPT-4 instances from colluding. These protocols improve substantially on simple baselines.
Humans vs Large Language Models: Judgmental Forecasting in an Era of Advanced AI
Authors: Mahdi Abolghasemi, Odkhishig Ganbold, Kristian Rotaru
Date: 2023-12-12 00:00:00

This study investigates the forecasting accuracy of human experts versus Large Language Models (LLMs) in the retail sector, particularly during standard and promotional sales periods. Utilizing a controlled experimental setup with 123 human forecasters and five LLMs, including ChatGPT4, ChatGPT3.5, Bard, Bing, and Llama2, we evaluated forecasting precision through Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Our analysis centered on the effect of the following factors on forecasters performance: the supporting statistical model (baseline and advanced), whether the product was on promotion, and the nature of external impact. The findings indicate that LLMs do not consistently outperform humans in forecasting accuracy and that advanced statistical forecasting models do not uniformly enhance the performance of either human forecasters or LLMs. Both human and LLM forecasters exhibited increased forecasting errors, particularly during promotional periods and under the influence of positive external impacts. Our findings call for careful consideration when integrating LLMs into practical forecasting processes.
Can a Transformer Represent a Kalman Filter?
Authors: Gautam Goel, Peter Bartlett
Date: 2023-12-12 00:00:00

Transformers are a class of autoregressive deep learning architectures which have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in various vision, language, and robotics tasks. We revisit the problem of Kalman Filtering in linear dynamical systems and show that Transformers can approximate the Kalman Filter in a strong sense. Specifically, for any observable LTI system we construct an explicit causally-masked Transformer which implements the Kalman Filter, up to a small additive error which is bounded uniformly in time; we call our construction the Transformer Filter. Our construction is based on a two-step reduction. We first show that a softmax self-attention block can exactly represent a Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing estimator with a Gaussian kernel. We then show that this estimator closely approximates the Kalman Filter. We also investigate how the Transformer Filter can be used for measurement-feedback control and prove that the resulting nonlinear controllers closely approximate the performance of standard optimal control policies such as the LQG controller.
Predictive variational autoencoder for learning robust representations of time-series data
Authors: Julia Huiming Wang, Dexter Tsin, Tatiana Engel
Date: 2023-12-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Model Selection, Time Series

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) have been used extensively to discover low-dimensional latent factors governing neural activity and animal behavior. However, without careful model selection, the uncovered latent factors may reflect noise in the data rather than true underlying features, rendering such representations unsuitable for scientific interpretation. Existing solutions to this problem involve introducing additional measured variables or data augmentations specific to a particular data type. We propose a VAE architecture that predicts the next point in time and show that it mitigates the learning of spurious features. In addition, we introduce a model selection metric based on smoothness over time in the latent space. We show that together these two constraints on VAEs to be smooth over time produce robust latent representations and faithfully recover latent factors on synthetic datasets.
Diffusion Schrödinger Bridge Matching
Authors: Yuyang Shi, Valentin De Bortoli, Andrew Campbell, Arnaud Doucet
Date: 2023-03-29 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2023 11
Tasks: Denoising

Solving transport problems, i.e. finding a map transporting one given distribution to another, has numerous applications in machine learning. Novel mass transport methods motivated by generative modeling have recently been proposed, e.g. Denoising Diffusion Models (DDMs) and Flow Matching Models (FMMs) implement such a transport through a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) or an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE). However, while it is desirable in many applications to approximate the deterministic dynamic Optimal Transport (OT) map which admits attractive properties, DDMs and FMMs are not guaranteed to provide transports close to the OT map. In contrast, Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) compute stochastic dynamic mappings which recover entropy-regularized versions of OT. Unfortunately, existing numerical methods approximating SBs either scale poorly with dimension or accumulate errors across iterations. In this work, we introduce Iterative Markovian Fitting (IMF), a new methodology for solving SB problems, and Diffusion Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (DSBM), a novel numerical algorithm for computing IMF iterates. DSBM significantly improves over previous SB numerics and recovers as special/limiting cases various recent transport methods. We demonstrate the performance of DSBM on a variety of problems.
DYAD: A Descriptive Yet Abjuring Density efficient approximation to linear neural network layers
Authors: Sarin Chandy, Varun Gangal, Yi Yang, Gabriel Maggiotti
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Descriptive, GPU

We devise, implement and performance-asses DYAD, a layer which can serve as a faster and more memory-efficient approximate replacement for linear layers, (nn.Linear() in Pytorch). These layers appear in common subcomponents, such as in the ff module of Transformers. DYAD is based on a bespoke near-sparse matrix structure which approximates the dense "weight" matrix W that matrix-multiplies the input in the typical realization of such a layer, a.k.a DENSE. Our alternative near-sparse matrix structure is decomposable to a sum of 2 matrices permutable to a block-sparse counterpart. These can be represented as 3D tensors, which in unison allow a faster execution of matrix multiplication with the mini-batched input matrix X compared to DENSE (O(rows(W ) x cols(W )) --> O( rows(W ) x cols(W ) # of blocks )). As the crux of our experiments, we pretrain both DYAD and DENSE variants of 2 sizes of the OPT arch and 1 size of the Pythia arch, including at different token scales of the babyLM benchmark. We find DYAD to be competitive (>= 90%) of DENSE performance on zero-shot (e.g. BLIMP), few-shot (OPENLM) and finetuning (GLUE) benchmarks, while being >=7-15% faster to train on-GPU even at 125m scale, besides surfacing larger speedups at increasing scale and model width.
A Novel Differentiable Loss Function for Unsupervised Graph Neural Networks in Graph Partitioning
Authors: Vivek Chaudhary
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Combinatorial Optimization, Graph Neural Network, graph partitioning

In this paper, we explore the graph partitioning problem, a pivotal combina-torial optimization challenge with extensive applications in various fields such as science, technology, and business. Recognized as an NP-hard prob-lem, graph partitioning lacks polynomial-time algorithms for its resolution. Recently, there has been a burgeoning interest in leveraging machine learn-ing, particularly approaches like supervised, unsupervised, and reinforce-ment learning, to tackle such NP-hard problems. However, these methods face significant hurdles: supervised learning is constrained by the necessity of labeled solution instances, which are often computationally impractical to obtain; reinforcement learning grapples with instability in the learning pro-cess; and unsupervised learning contends with the absence of a differentia-ble loss function, a consequence of the discrete nature of most combinatorial optimization problems. Addressing these challenges, our research introduces a novel pipeline employing an unsupervised graph neural network to solve the graph partitioning problem. The core innovation of this study is the for-mulation of a differentiable loss function tailored for this purpose. We rigor-ously evaluate our methodology against contemporary state-of-the-art tech-niques, focusing on metrics: cuts and balance, and our findings reveal that our is competitive with these leading methods.
Sparse Transformer with Local and Seasonal Adaptation for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Authors: Yifan Zhang, Rui Wu, Sergiu M. Dascalu, Frederick C. Harris Jr
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting, Time Series, Time Series Forecasting

Transformers have achieved remarkable performance in multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting due to their capability to capture long-term dependencies. However, the canonical attention mechanism has two key limitations: (1) its quadratic time complexity limits the sequence length, and (2) it generates future values from the entire historical sequence. To address this, we propose a Dozer Attention mechanism consisting of three sparse components: (1) Local, each query exclusively attends to keys within a localized window of neighboring time steps. (2) Stride, enables each query to attend to keys at predefined intervals. (3) Vary, allows queries to selectively attend to keys from a subset of the historical sequence. Notably, the size of this subset dynamically expands as forecasting horizons extend. Those three components are designed to capture essential attributes of MTS data, including locality, seasonality, and global temporal dependencies. Additionally, we present the Dozerformer Framework, incorporating the Dozer Attention mechanism for the MTS forecasting task. We evaluated the proposed Dozerformer framework with recent state-of-the-art methods on nine benchmark datasets and confirmed its superior performance. The experimental results indicate that excluding a subset of historical time steps from the time series forecasting process does not compromise accuracy while significantly improving efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/GRYGY1215/Dozerformer.
ELSA: Partial Weight Freezing for Overhead-Free Sparse Network Deployment
Authors: Paniz Halvachi, Alexandra Peste, Dan Alistarh, Christoph H. Lampert
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00

We present ELSA, a practical solution for creating deep networks that can easily be deployed at different levels of sparsity. The core idea is to embed one or more sparse networks within a single dense network as a proper subset of the weights. At prediction time, any sparse model can be extracted effortlessly simply be zeroing out weights according to a predefined mask. ELSA is simple, powerful and highly flexible. It can use essentially any existing technique for network sparsification and network training. In particular, it does not restrict the loss function, architecture or the optimization technique. Our experiments show that ELSA's advantages of flexible deployment comes with no or just a negligible reduction in prediction quality compared to the standard way of using multiple sparse networks that are trained and stored independently.
Multimodal Pretraining of Medical Time Series and Notes
Authors: Ryan King, Tianbao Yang, Bobak Mortazavi
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Mortality Prediction, Self-Supervised Learning, Time Series

Within the intensive care unit (ICU), a wealth of patient data, including clinical measurements and clinical notes, is readily available. This data is a valuable resource for comprehending patient health and informing medical decisions, but it also contains many challenges in analysis. Deep learning models show promise in extracting meaningful patterns, but they require extensive labeled data, a challenge in critical care. To address this, we propose a novel approach employing self-supervised pretraining, focusing on the alignment of clinical measurements and notes. Our approach combines contrastive and masked token prediction tasks during pretraining. Semi-supervised experiments on the MIMIC-III dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our self-supervised pretraining. In downstream tasks, including in-hospital mortality prediction and phenotyping, our pretrained model outperforms baselines in settings where only a fraction of the data is labeled, emphasizing its ability to enhance ICU data analysis. Notably, our method excels in situations where very few labels are available, as evidenced by an increase in the AUC-ROC for in-hospital mortality by 0.17 and in AUC-PR for phenotyping by 0.1 when only 1% of labels are accessible. This work advances self-supervised learning in the healthcare domain, optimizing clinical insights from abundant yet challenging ICU data.
Self-supervised Machine Learning Based Approach to Orbit Modelling Applied to Space Traffic Management
Authors: Emma Stevenson, Victor Rodriguez-Fernandez, Hodei Urrutxua, Vincent Morand, David Camacho
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Management, Time Series, Time Series Classification

This paper presents a novel methodology for improving the performance of machine learning based space traffic management tasks through the use of a pre-trained orbit model. Taking inspiration from BERT-like self-supervised language models in the field of natural language processing, we introduce ORBERT, and demonstrate the ability of such a model to leverage large quantities of readily available orbit data to learn meaningful representations that can be used to aid in downstream tasks. As a proof of concept of this approach we consider the task of all vs. all conjunction screening, phrased here as a machine learning time series classification task. We show that leveraging unlabelled orbit data leads to improved performance, and that the proposed approach can be particularly beneficial for tasks where the availability of labelled data is limited.
Spectral State Space Models
Authors: Naman Agarwal, Daniel Suo, Xinyi Chen, Elad Hazan
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction, State Space Models

This paper studies sequence modeling for prediction tasks with long range dependencies. We propose a new formulation for state space models (SSMs) based on learning linear dynamical systems with the spectral filtering algorithm (Hazan et al. (2017)). This gives rise to a novel sequence prediction architecture we call a spectral state space model. Spectral state space models have two primary advantages. First, they have provable robustness properties as their performance depends on neither the spectrum of the underlying dynamics nor the dimensionality of the problem. Second, these models are constructed with fixed convolutional filters that do not require learning while still outperforming SSMs in both theory and practice. The resulting models are evaluated on synthetic dynamical systems and long-range prediction tasks of various modalities. These evaluations support the theoretical benefits of spectral filtering for tasks requiring very long range memory.
Resetting a fixed broken ELBO
Authors: Robert I. Cukier
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Disentanglement, Unity

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are one class of generative probabilistic latent-variable models designed for inference based on known data. They balance reconstruction and regularizer terms. A variational approximation produces an evidence lower bound (ELBO). Multiplying the regularizer term by beta provides a beta-VAE/ELBO, improving disentanglement of the latent space. However, any beta value different than unity violates the laws of conditional probability. To provide a similarly-parameterized VAE, we develop a Renyi (versus Shannon) entropy VAE, and a variational approximation RELBO that introduces a similar parameter. The Renyi VAE has an additional Renyi regularizer-like term with a conditional distribution that is not learned. The term is evaluated essentially analytically using a Singular Value Decomposition method.
System-level Safety Guard: Safe Tracking Control through Uncertain Neural Network Dynamics Models
Authors: Xiao Li, Yutong Li, Anouck Girard, Ilya Kolmanovsky
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Robot Navigation

The Neural Network (NN), as a black-box function approximator, has been considered in many control and robotics applications. However, difficulties in verifying the overall system safety in the presence of uncertainties hinder the deployment of NN modules in safety-critical systems. In this paper, we leverage the NNs as predictive models for trajectory tracking of unknown dynamical systems. We consider controller design in the presence of both intrinsic uncertainty and uncertainties from other system modules. In this setting, we formulate the constrained trajectory tracking problem and show that it can be solved using Mixed-integer Linear Programming (MILP). The proposed MILP-based approach is empirically demonstrated in robot navigation and obstacle avoidance through simulations. The demonstration videos are available at https://xiaolisean.github.io/publication/2023-11-01-L4DC2024.
Model Breadcrumbs: Scaling Multi-Task Model Merging with Sparse Masks
Authors: MohammadReza Davari, Eugene Belilovsky
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: model

The rapid development of AI systems has been greatly influenced by the emergence of foundation models. A common approach for targeted problems involves fine-tuning these pre-trained foundation models for specific target tasks, resulting in a rapid spread of models fine-tuned across a diverse array of tasks. This work focuses on the problem of merging multiple fine-tunings of the same foundation model derived from a spectrum of auxiliary tasks. We introduce a new simple method, Model Breadcrumbs, which consists of a sparsely defined weight set that guides model adaptation within the weight space of a pre-trained model. These breadcrumbs are constructed by subtracting the weights from a pre-trained model before and after fine-tuning, followed by a sparsification process that eliminates weight outliers and negligible perturbations. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of Model Breadcrumbs to simultaneously improve performance across multiple tasks. This contribution aligns with the evolving paradigm of updatable machine learning, reminiscent of the collaborative principles underlying open-source software development, fostering a community-driven effort to reliably update machine learning models. Our method is shown to be more efficient and unlike previous proposals does not require hyperparameter tuning for each new task added. Through extensive experimentation involving various models, tasks, and modalities we establish that integrating Model Breadcrumbs offers a simple, efficient, and highly effective approach for constructing multi-task models and facilitating updates to foundation models.
Learning Polynomial Representations of Physical Objects with Application to Certifying Correct Packing Configurations
Authors: Morgan Jones
Date: 2023-12-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Object, One-Class Classification, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

This paper introduces a novel approach for learning polynomial representations of physical objects. Given a point cloud data set associated with a physical object, we solve a one-class classification problem to bound the data points by a polynomial sublevel set while harnessing Sum-of-Squares (SOS) programming to enforce prior shape knowledge constraints. By representing objects as polynomial sublevel sets we further show it is possible to construct a secondary SOS program to certify whether objects are packed correctly, that is object boundaries do not overlap and are inside some container set. While not employing reinforcement learning (RL) in this work, our proposed secondary SOS program does provide a potential surrogate reward function for RL algorithms, autonomously rewarding agents that propose object rotations and translations that correctly pack objects within a given container set.
Physics Informed Neural Network for Option Pricing
Authors: Ashish Dhiman, Yibei Hu
Date: 2023-12-10 00:00:00

We apply a physics-informed deep-learning approach the PINN approach to the Black-Scholes equation for pricing American and European options. We test our approach on both simulated as well as real market data, compare it to analytical/numerical benchmarks. Our model is able to accurately capture the price behaviour on simulation data, while also exhibiting reasonable performance for market data. We also experiment with the architecture and learning process of our PINN model to provide more understanding of convergence and stability issues that impact performance.