pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Gaussian process regression and conditional Karhunen-Loéve models for data assimilation in inverse problems
Authors: Yu-Hong Yeung, David A. Barajas-Solano, Alexandre M. Tartakovsky
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: parameter estimation, regression

We present a model inversion algorithm, CKLEMAP, for data assimilation and parameter estimation in partial differential equation models of physical systems with spatially heterogeneous parameter fields. These fields are approximated using low-dimensional conditional Karhunen-Lo\'{e}ve expansions, which are constructed using Gaussian process regression models of these fields trained on the parameters' measurements. We then assimilate measurements of the state of the system and compute the maximum a posteriori estimate of the CKLE coefficients by solving a nonlinear least-squares problem. When solving this optimization problem, we efficiently compute the Jacobian of the vector objective by exploiting the sparsity structure of the linear system of equations associated with the forward solution of the physics problem. The CKLEMAP method provides better scalability compared to the standard MAP method. In the MAP method, the number of unknowns to be estimated is equal to the number of elements in the numerical forward model. On the other hand, in CKLEMAP, the number of unknowns (CKLE coefficients) is controlled by the smoothness of the parameter field and the number of measurements, and is in general much smaller than the number of discretization nodes, which leads to a significant reduction of computational cost with respect to the standard MAP method. To show its advantage in scalability, we apply CKLEMAP to estimate the transmissivity field in a two-dimensional steady-state subsurface flow model of the Hanford Site by assimilating synthetic measurements of transmissivity and hydraulic head. We find that the execution time of CKLEMAP scales nearly linearly as $N^{1.33}$, where $N$ is the number of discretization nodes, while the execution time of standard MAP scales as $N^{2.91}$. The CKLEMAP method improved execution time without sacrificing accuracy when compared to the standard MAP.
Online Convex Optimization with Stochastic Constraints: Zero Constraint Violation and Bandit Feedback
Authors: Yeongjong Kim, Dabeen Lee
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: LEMMA

This paper studies online convex optimization with stochastic constraints. We propose a variant of the drift-plus-penalty algorithm that guarantees $O(\sqrt{T})$ expected regret and zero constraint violation, after a fixed number of iterations, which improves the vanilla drift-plus-penalty method with $O(\sqrt{T})$ constraint violation. Our algorithm is oblivious to the length of the time horizon $T$, in contrast to the vanilla drift-plus-penalty method. This is based on our novel drift lemma that provides time-varying bounds on the virtual queue drift and, as a result, leads to time-varying bounds on the expected virtual queue length. Moreover, we extend our framework to stochastic-constrained online convex optimization under two-point bandit feedback. We show that by adapting our algorithmic framework to the bandit feedback setting, we may still achieve $O(\sqrt{T})$ expected regret and zero constraint violation, improving upon the previous work for the case of identical constraint functions. Numerical results demonstrate our theoretical results.
Maximum Optimality Margin: A Unified Approach for Contextual Linear Programming and Inverse Linear Programming
Authors: Chunlin Sun, Shang Liu, Xiaocheng Li
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency

In this paper, we study the predict-then-optimize problem where the output of a machine learning prediction task is used as the input of some downstream optimization problem, say, the objective coefficient vector of a linear program. The problem is also known as predictive analytics or contextual linear programming. The existing approaches largely suffer from either (i) optimization intractability (a non-convex objective function)/statistical inefficiency (a suboptimal generalization bound) or (ii) requiring strong condition(s) such as no constraint or loss calibration. We develop a new approach to the problem called \textit{maximum optimality margin} which designs the machine learning loss function by the optimality condition of the downstream optimization. The max-margin formulation enjoys both computational efficiency and good theoretical properties for the learning procedure. More importantly, our new approach only needs the observations of the optimal solution in the training data rather than the objective function, which makes it a new and natural approach to the inverse linear programming problem under both contextual and context-free settings; we also analyze the proposed method under both offline and online settings, and demonstrate its performance using numerical experiments.
A Benchmark Study by using various Machine Learning Models for Predicting Covid-19 trends
Authors: D. Kamelesun, R. Saranya, P. Kathiravan
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

Machine learning and deep learning play vital roles in predicting diseases in the medical field. Machine learning algorithms are widely classified as supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. This paper contains a detailed description of our experimental research work in that we used a supervised machine-learning algorithm to build our model for outbreaks of the novel Coronavirus that has spread over the whole world and caused many deaths, which is one of the most disastrous Pandemics in the history of the world. The people suffered physically and economically to survive in this lockdown. This work aims to understand better how machine learning, ensemble, and deep learning models work and are implemented in the real dataset. In our work, we are going to analyze the current trend or pattern of the coronavirus and then predict the further future of the covid-19 confirmed cases or new cases by training the past Covid-19 dataset by using the machine learning algorithm such as Linear Regression, Polynomial Regression, K-nearest neighbor, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine and Random forest algorithm are used to train the model. The decision tree and the Random Forest algorithm perform better than SVR in this work. The performance of SVR and lasso regression are low in all prediction areas Because the SVR is challenging to separate the data using the hyperplane for this type of problem. So SVR mostly gives a lower performance in this problem. Ensemble (Voting, Bagging, and Stacking) and deep learning models(ANN) also predict well. After the prediction, we evaluated the model using MAE, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE. This work aims to find the trend/pattern of the covid-19.
On the Convergence of No-Regret Learning Dynamics in Time-Varying Games
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2023 11
Tasks: Meta-Learning

Most of the literature on learning in games has focused on the restrictive setting where the underlying repeated game does not change over time. Much less is known about the convergence of no-regret learning algorithms in dynamic multiagent settings. In this paper, we characterize the convergence of optimistic gradient descent (OGD) in time-varying games. Our framework yields sharp convergence bounds for the equilibrium gap of OGD in zero-sum games parameterized on natural variation measures of the sequence of games, subsuming known results for static games. Furthermore, we establish improved second-order variation bounds under strong convexity-concavity, as long as each game is repeated multiple times. Our results also apply to time-varying general-sum multi-player games via a bilinear formulation of correlated equilibria, which has novel implications for meta-learning and for obtaining refined variation-dependent regret bounds, addressing questions left open in prior papers. Finally, we leverage our framework to also provide new insights on dynamic regret guarantees in static games.
Returning The Favour: When Regression Benefits From Probabilistic Causal Knowledge
Authors: Shahine Bouabid, Jake Fawkes, Dino Sejdinovic
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.
Causal Graph Discovery from Self and Mutually Exciting Time Series
Authors: Song Wei, Yao Xie, Christopher S. Josef, Rishikesan Kamaleswaran
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Discovery, Time Series, Time Series Analysis

We present a generalized linear structural causal model, coupled with a novel data-adaptive linear regularization, to recover causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from time series. By leveraging a recently developed stochastic monotone Variational Inequality (VI) formulation, we cast the causal discovery problem as a general convex optimization. Furthermore, we develop a non-asymptotic recovery guarantee and quantifiable uncertainty by solving a linear program to establish confidence intervals for a wide range of non-linear monotone link functions. We validate our theoretical results and show the competitive performance of our method via extensive numerical experiments. Most importantly, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in recovering highly interpretable causal DAGs over Sepsis Associated Derangements (SADs) while achieving comparable prediction performance to powerful ``black-box'' models such as XGBoost. Thus, the future adoption of our proposed method to conduct continuous surveillance of high-risk patients by clinicians is much more likely.
Smoothed Online Learning for Prediction in Piecewise Affine Systems
Authors: Adam Block, Max Simchowitz, Russ Tedrake
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2023 11
Tasks: Prediction

The problem of piecewise affine (PWA) regression and planning is of foundational importance to the study of online learning, control, and robotics, where it provides a theoretically and empirically tractable setting to study systems undergoing sharp changes in the dynamics. Unfortunately, due to the discontinuities that arise when crossing into different ``pieces,'' learning in general sequential settings is impossible and practical algorithms are forced to resort to heuristic approaches. This paper builds on the recently developed smoothed online learning framework and provides the first algorithms for prediction and simulation in PWA systems whose regret is polynomial in all relevant problem parameters under a weak smoothness assumption; moreover, our algorithms are efficient in the number of calls to an optimization oracle. We further apply our results to the problems of one-step prediction and multi-step simulation regret in piecewise affine dynamical systems, where the learner is tasked with simulating trajectories and regret is measured in terms of the Wasserstein distance between simulated and true data. Along the way, we develop several technical tools of more general interest.
Neural Inverse Operators for Solving PDE Inverse Problems
Authors: Roberto Molinaro, Yunan Yang, Björn Engquist, Siddhartha Mishra
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Operator learning

A large class of inverse problems for PDEs are only well-defined as mappings from operators to functions. Existing operator learning frameworks map functions to functions and need to be modified to learn inverse maps from data. We propose a novel architecture termed Neural Inverse Operators (NIOs) to solve these PDE inverse problems. Motivated by the underlying mathematical structure, NIO is based on a suitable composition of DeepONets and FNOs to approximate mappings from operators to functions. A variety of experiments are presented to demonstrate that NIOs significantly outperform baselines and solve PDE inverse problems robustly, accurately and are several orders of magnitude faster than existing direct and PDE-constrained optimization methods.
A Graph Neural Network with Negative Message Passing for Graph Coloring
Authors: Xiangyu Wang, Xueming Yan, Yaochu Jin
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Graph Neural Network

Graph neural networks have received increased attention over the past years due to their promising ability to handle graph-structured data, which can be found in many real-world problems such as recommended systems and drug synthesis. Most existing research focuses on using graph neural networks to solve homophilous problems, but little attention has been paid to heterophily-type problems. In this paper, we propose a graph network model for graph coloring, which is a class of representative heterophilous problems. Different from the conventional graph networks, we introduce negative message passing into the proposed graph neural network for more effective information exchange in handling graph coloring problems. Moreover, a new loss function taking into account the self-information of the nodes is suggested to accelerate the learning process. Experimental studies are carried out to compare the proposed graph model with five state-of-the-art algorithms on ten publicly available graph coloring problems and one real-world application. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed graph neural network.
Convolutional Learning on Simplicial Complexes
Authors: Maosheng Yang, Elvin Isufi
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Trajectory Prediction

We propose a simplicial complex convolutional neural network (SCCNN) to learn data representations on simplicial complexes. It performs convolutions based on the multi-hop simplicial adjacencies via common faces and cofaces independently and captures the inter-simplicial couplings, generalizing state-of-the-art. Upon studying symmetries of the simplicial domain and the data space, it is shown to be permutation and orientation equivariant, thus, incorporating such inductive biases. Based on the Hodge theory, we perform a spectral analysis to understand how SCCNNs regulate data in different frequencies, showing that the convolutions via faces and cofaces operate in two orthogonal data spaces. Lastly, we study the stability of SCCNNs to domain deformations and examine the effects of various factors. Empirical results show the benefits of higher-order convolutions and inter-simplicial couplings in simplex prediction and trajectory prediction.
New Approach to Malware Detection Using Optimized Convolutional Neural Network
Authors: marwan omar
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Malware Detection

Cyber-crimes have become a multi-billion-dollar industry in the recent years. Most cybercrimes/attacks involve deploying some type of malware. Malware that viciously targets every industry, every sector, every enterprise and even individuals has shown its capabilities to take entire business organizations offline and cause significant financial damage in billions of dollars annually. Malware authors are constantly evolving in their attack strategies and sophistication and are developing malware that is difficult to detect and can lay dormant in the background for quite some time in order to evade security controls. Given the above argument, Traditional approaches to malware detection are no longer effective. As a result, deep learning models have become an emerging trend to detect and classify malware. This paper proposes a new convolutional deep learning neural network to accurately and effectively detect malware with high precision. This paper is different than most other papers in the literature in that it uses an expert data science approach by developing a convolutional neural network from scratch to establish a baseline of the performance model first, explores and implements an improvement model from the baseline model, and finally it evaluates the performance of the final model. The baseline model initially achieves 98% accurate rate but after increasing the depth of the CNN model, its accuracy reaches 99.183 which outperforms most of the CNN models in the literature. Finally, to further solidify the effectiveness of this CNN model, we use the improved model to make predictions on new malware samples within our dataset.
FedHQL: Federated Heterogeneous Q-Learning
Authors: Flint Xiaofeng Fan, Yining Ma, Zhongxiang Dai, Cheston Tan, Bryan Kian Hsiang Low, Roger Wattenhofer
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Q-Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Federated Reinforcement Learning (FedRL) encourages distributed agents to learn collectively from each other's experience to improve their performance without exchanging their raw trajectories. The existing work on FedRL assumes that all participating agents are homogeneous, which requires all agents to share the same policy parameterization (e.g., network architectures and training configurations). However, in real-world applications, agents are often in disagreement about the architecture and the parameters, possibly also because of disparate computational budgets. Because homogeneity is not given in practice, we introduce the problem setting of Federated Reinforcement Learning with Heterogeneous And bLack-box agEnts (FedRL-HALE). We present the unique challenges this new setting poses and propose the Federated Heterogeneous Q-Learning (FedHQL) algorithm that principally addresses these challenges. We empirically demonstrate the efficacy of FedHQL in boosting the sample efficiency of heterogeneous agents with distinct policy parameterization using standard RL tasks.
SQ Lower Bounds for Random Sparse Planted Vector Problem
Authors: Jingqiu Ding, Yiding Hua
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00

Consider the setting where a $\rho$-sparse Rademacher vector is planted in a random $d$-dimensional subspace of $R^n$. A classical question is how to recover this planted vector given a random basis in this subspace. A recent result by [ZSWB21] showed that the Lattice basis reduction algorithm can recover the planted vector when $n\geq d+1$. Although the algorithm is not expected to tolerate inverse polynomial amount of noise, it is surprising because it was previously shown that recovery cannot be achieved by low degree polynomials when $n\ll \rho^2 d^{2}$ [MW21]. A natural question is whether we can derive an Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound matching the previous low degree lower bound in [MW21]. This will - imply that the SQ lower bound can be surpassed by lattice based algorithms; - predict the computational hardness when the planted vector is perturbed by inverse polynomial amount of noise. In this paper, we prove such an SQ lower bound. In particular, we show that super-polynomial number of VSTAT queries is needed to solve the easier statistical testing problem when $n\ll \rho^2 d^{2}$ and $\rho\gg \frac{1}{\sqrt{d}}$. The most notable technique we used to derive the SQ lower bound is the almost equivalence relationship between SQ lower bound and low degree lower bound [BBH+20, MW21].
Finding Regions of Counterfactual Explanations via Robust Optimization
Authors: Donato Maragno, Jannis Kurtz, Tabea E. Röber, Rob Goedhart, Ş. Ilker Birbil, Dick den Hertog
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual, Counterfactual Explanation, valid

Counterfactual explanations play an important role in detecting bias and improving the explainability of data-driven classification models. A counterfactual explanation (CE) is a minimal perturbed data point for which the decision of the model changes. Most of the existing methods can only provide one CE, which may not be achievable for the user. In this work we derive an iterative method to calculate robust CEs, i.e. CEs that remain valid even after the features are slightly perturbed. To this end, our method provides a whole region of CEs allowing the user to choose a suitable recourse to obtain a desired outcome. We use algorithmic ideas from robust optimization and prove convergence results for the most common machine learning methods including logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, and neural networks. Our experiments show that our method can efficiently generate globally optimal robust CEs for a variety of common data sets and classification models.
Federated Learning over Coupled Graphs
Authors: Runze Lei, Pinghui Wang, Junzhou Zhao, Lin Lan, Jing Tao, Chao Deng, Junlan Feng, Xidian Wang, Xiaohong Guan
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Federated Learning, Node Classification

Graphs are widely used to represent the relations among entities. When one owns the complete data, an entire graph can be easily built, therefore performing analysis on the graph is straightforward. However, in many scenarios, it is impractical to centralize the data due to data privacy concerns. An organization or party only keeps a part of the whole graph data, i.e., graph data is isolated from different parties. Recently, Federated Learning (FL) has been proposed to solve the data isolation issue, mainly for Euclidean data. It is still a challenge to apply FL on graph data because graphs contain topological information which is notorious for its non-IID nature and is hard to partition. In this work, we propose a novel FL framework for graph data, FedCog, to efficiently handle coupled graphs that are a kind of distributed graph data, but widely exist in a variety of real-world applications such as mobile carriers' communication networks and banks' transaction networks. We theoretically prove the correctness and security of FedCog. Experimental results demonstrate that our method FedCog significantly outperforms traditional FL methods on graphs. Remarkably, our FedCog improves the accuracy of node classification tasks by up to 14.7%.
Minerva: A File-Based Ransomware Detector
Authors: Dorjan Hitaj, Giulio Pagnotta, Fabio De Gaspari, Lorenzo De Carli, Luigi V. Mancini
Date: 2023-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: feature selection

Ransomware attacks have caused billions of dollars in damages in recent years, and are expected to cause billions more in the future. Consequently, significant effort has been devoted to ransomware detection and mitigation. Behavioral-based ransomware detection approaches have garnered considerable attention recently. These behavioral detectors typically rely on process-based behavioral profiles to identify malicious behaviors. However, with an increasing body of literature highlighting the vulnerability of such approaches to evasion attacks, a comprehensive solution to the ransomware problem remains elusive. This paper presents Minerva, a novel, robust approach to ransomware detection. Minerva is engineered to be robust by design against evasion attacks, with architectural and feature selection choices informed by their resilience to adversarial manipulation. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of Minerva across a diverse spectrum of ransomware types, encompassing unseen ransomware as well as variants designed specifically to evade Minerva. Our evaluation showcases the ability of Minerva to accurately identify ransomware, generalize to unseen threats, and withstand evasion attacks. Furthermore, over 99% of detected ransomware are identified within 0.52sec of activity, enabling the adoption of data loss prevention techniques with near-zero overhead.