pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Implicitly normalized forecaster with clipping for linear and non-linear heavy-tailed multi-armed bandits
Authors: Yuriy Dorn, Nikita Kornilov, Nikolay Kutuzov, Alexander Nazin, Eduard Gorbunov, Alexander Gasnikov
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Multi-Armed Bandits

The Implicitly Normalized Forecaster (INF) algorithm is considered to be an optimal solution for adversarial multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems. However, most of the existing complexity results for INF rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded rewards. Recently, a related algorithm was proposed that works for both adversarial and stochastic heavy-tailed MAB settings. However, this algorithm fails to fully exploit the available data. In this paper, we propose a new version of INF called the Implicitly Normalized Forecaster with clipping (INF-clip) for MAB problems with heavy-tailed reward distributions. We establish convergence results under mild assumptions on the rewards distribution and demonstrate that INF-clip is optimal for linear heavy-tailed stochastic MAB problems and works well for non-linear ones. Furthermore, we show that INF-clip outperforms the best-of-both-worlds algorithm in cases where it is difficult to distinguish between different arms.
NUBO: A Transparent Python Package for Bayesian Optimization
Authors: Mike Diessner, Kevin J. Wilson, Richard D. Whalley
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Optimisation, Bayesian Optimization, Gaussian Processes

NUBO, short for Newcastle University Bayesian Optimization, is a Bayesian optimization framework for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions, such as physical experiments and computer simulators. Bayesian optimization is a cost-efficient optimization strategy that uses surrogate modeling via Gaussian processes to represent an objective function and acquisition functions to guide the selection of candidate points to approximate the global optimum of the objective function. NUBO focuses on transparency and user experience to make Bayesian optimization accessible to researchers from all disciplines. Clean and understandable code, precise references, and thorough documentation ensure transparency, while a modular and flexible design, easy-to-write syntax, and careful selection of Bayesian optimization algorithms ensure a good user experience. NUBO allows users to tailor Bayesian optimization to their problem by writing a custom optimization loop using the provided building blocks. It supports sequential single-point, parallel multi-point, and asynchronous optimization of bounded, constrained, and mixed (discrete and continuous) parameter input spaces. Only algorithms and methods extensively tested and validated to perform well are included in NUBO. This ensures that the package remains compact and does not overwhelm the user with an unnecessarily large number of options. The package is written in Python but does not require expert knowledge of Python to optimize simulators and experiments. NUBO is distributed as open-source software under the BSD 3-Clause license.
Robust Detection of Lead-Lag Relationships in Lagged Multi-Factor Models
Authors: Yichi Zhang, Mihai Cucuringu, Alexander Y. Shestopaloff, Stefan Zohren
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Time Series

In multivariate time series systems, key insights can be obtained by discovering lead-lag relationships inherent in the data, which refer to the dependence between two time series shifted in time relative to one another, and which can be leveraged for the purposes of control, forecasting or clustering. We develop a clustering-driven methodology for robust detection of lead-lag relationships in lagged multi-factor models. Within our framework, the envisioned pipeline takes as input a set of time series, and creates an enlarged universe of extracted subsequence time series from each input time series, via a sliding window approach. This is then followed by an application of various clustering techniques, (such as k-means++ and spectral clustering), employing a variety of pairwise similarity measures, including nonlinear ones. Once the clusters have been extracted, lead-lag estimates across clusters are robustly aggregated to enhance the identification of the consistent relationships in the original universe. We establish connections to the multireference alignment problem for both the homogeneous and heterogeneous settings. Since multivariate time series are ubiquitous in a wide range of domains, we demonstrate that our method is not only able to robustly detect lead-lag relationships in financial markets, but can also yield insightful results when applied to an environmental data set.
On the convergence of the MLE as an estimator of the learning rate in the Exp3 algorithm
Authors: Julien Aubert, Luc Lehéricy, Patricia Reynaud-Bouret
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00

When fitting the learning data of an individual to algorithm-like learning models, the observations are so dependent and non-stationary that one may wonder what the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) could do, even if it is the usual tool applied to experimental cognition. Our objective in this work is to show that the estimation of the learning rate cannot be efficient if the learning rate is constant in the classical Exp3 (Exponential weights for Exploration and Exploitation) algorithm. Secondly, we show that if the learning rate decreases polynomially with the sample size, then the prediction error and in some cases the estimation error of the MLE satisfy bounds in probability that decrease at a polynomial rate.
Predictive change point detection for heterogeneous data
Authors: Anna-Christina Glock, Florian Sobieczky, Johannes Fürnkranz, Peter Filzmoser, Martin Jech
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Change Point Detection, Prognosis

A change point detection (CPD) framework assisted by a predictive machine learning model called "Predict and Compare" is introduced and characterised in relation to other state-of-the-art online CPD routines which it outperforms in terms of false positive rate and out-of-control average run length. The method's focus is on improving standard methods from sequential analysis such as the CUSUM rule in terms of these quality measures. This is achieved by replacing typically used trend estimation functionals such as the running mean with more sophisticated predictive models (Predict step), and comparing their prognosis with actual data (Compare step). The two models used in the Predict step are the ARIMA model and the LSTM recursive neural network. However, the framework is formulated in general terms, so as to allow the use of other prediction or comparison methods than those tested here. The power of the method is demonstrated in a tribological case study in which change points separating the run-in, steady-state, and divergent wear phases are detected in the regime of very few false positives.
Dropout Regularization in Extended Generalized Linear Models based on Double Exponential Families
Authors: Benedikt Lütke Schwienhorst, Lucas Kock, Nadja Klein, David J. Nott
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00

Even though dropout is a popular regularization technique, its theoretical properties are not fully understood. In this paper we study dropout regularization in extended generalized linear models based on double exponential families, for which the dispersion parameter can vary with the features. A theoretical analysis shows that dropout regularization prefers rare but important features in both the mean and dispersion, generalizing an earlier result for conventional generalized linear models. To illustrate, we apply dropout to adaptive smoothing with B-splines, where both the mean and dispersion parameters are modeled flexibly. The important B-spline basis functions can be thought of as rare features, and we confirm in experiments that dropout is an effective form of regularization for mean and dispersion parameters that improves on a penalized maximum likelihood approach with an explicit smoothness penalty. An application to traffic detection data from Berlin further illustrates the benefits of our method.
Matrix tri-factorization over the tropical semiring
Authors: Amra Omanović, Polona Oblak, Tomaž Curk
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Community Detection, Matrix Completion

Tropical semiring has proven successful in several research areas, including optimal control, bioinformatics, discrete event systems, or solving a decision problem. In previous studies, a matrix two-factorization algorithm based on the tropical semiring has been applied to investigate bipartite and tripartite networks. Tri-factorization algorithms based on standard linear algebra are used for solving tasks such as data fusion, co-clustering, matrix completion, community detection, and more. However, there is currently no tropical matrix tri-factorization approach, which would allow for the analysis of multipartite networks with a high number of parts. To address this, we propose the triFastSTMF algorithm, which performs tri-factorization over the tropical semiring. We apply it to analyze a four-partition network structure and recover the edge lengths of the network. We show that triFastSTMF performs similarly to Fast-NMTF in terms of approximation and prediction performance when fitted on the whole network. When trained on a specific subnetwork and used to predict the whole network, triFastSTMF outperforms Fast-NMTF by several orders of magnitude smaller error. The robustness of triFastSTMF is due to tropical operations, which are less prone to predict large values compared to standard operations.
Active Learning For Contextual Linear Optimization: A Margin-Based Approach
Authors: Mo Liu, Paul Grigas, Heyuan Liu, Zuo-Jun Max Shen
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Active Learning, Decision Making

We develop the first active learning method for contextual linear optimization. Specifically, we introduce a label acquisition algorithm that sequentially decides whether to request the ``labels'' of feature samples from an unlabeled data stream, where the labels correspond to the coefficients of the objective in the linear optimization. Our method is the first to be directly informed by the decision loss induced by the predicted coefficients, referred to as the Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO) loss. Motivated by the structure of the SPO loss, our algorithm adopts a margin-based criterion utilizing the concept of distance to degeneracy. In particular, we design an efficient active learning algorithm with theoretical excess risk (i.e., generalization) guarantees. We derive upper bounds on the label complexity, defined as the number of samples whose labels are acquired to achieve a desired small level of SPO risk. These bounds show that our algorithm has a much smaller label complexity than the naive supervised learning approach that labels all samples, particularly when the SPO loss is minimized directly on the collected data. To address the discontinuity and nonconvexity of the SPO loss, we derive label complexity bounds under tractable surrogate loss functions. Under natural margin conditions, these bounds also outperform naive supervised learning. Using the SPO+ loss, a specialized surrogate of the SPO loss, we establish even tighter bounds under separability conditions. Finally, we present numerical evidence showing the practical value of our algorithms in settings such as personalized pricing and the shortest path problem.
Clustering of Time-Varying Graphs Based on Temporal Label Smoothness
Authors: Katsuki Fukumoto, Koki Yamada, Yuichi Tanaka, Hoi-To Wai
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Functional Connectivity, Node Clustering, Time Series

We propose a node clustering method for time-varying graphs based on the assumption that the cluster labels are changed smoothly over time. Clustering is one of the fundamental tasks in many science and engineering fields including signal processing, machine learning, and data mining. Although most existing studies focus on the clustering of nodes in static graphs, we often encounter time-varying graphs for time-series data, e.g., social networks, brain functional connectivity, and point clouds. In this paper, we formulate a node clustering of time-varying graphs as an optimization problem based on spectral clustering, with a smoothness constraint of the node labels. We solve the problem with a primal-dual splitting algorithm. Experiments on synthetic and real-world time-varying graphs are performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Spatiotemporal Regularized Tucker Decomposition Approach for Traffic Data Imputation
Authors: Wenwu Gong, Zhejun Huang, Lili Yang
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Imputation, Tensor Decomposition, Traffic Data Imputation

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic data imputation, estimating the missing value from partially observed data is an inevitable and challenging task. Previous studies have not fully considered traffic data's multidimensionality and spatiotemporal correlations, but they are vital to traffic data recovery, especially for high-level missing scenarios. To address this problem, we propose a novel spatiotemporal regularized Tucker decomposition method. First, the traffic matrix is converted into a third-order tensor. Then, based on Tucker decomposition, the tensor is approximated by multiplying non-negative factor matrices with a sparse core tensor. Notably, we do not need to set the tensor rank or determine it through matrix nuclear-norm minimization or tensor rank minimization. The low rankness is characterized by the $l_1$-norm of the core tensor, while the manifold regularization and temporal constraint are employed to capture spatiotemporal correlations and further improve imputation performance. We use an alternating proximal gradient method with guaranteed convergence to address the proposed model. Numerical experiments show that our proposal outperforms matrix-based and tensor-based baselines on real-world spatiotemporal traffic datasets in various missing scenarios.
Semantic Random Walk for Graph Representation Learning in Attributed Graphs
Authors: Meng Qin
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Attribute, Community Detection, Graph Representation Learning, Network Embedding, Representation Learning

In this study, we focus on the graph representation learning (a.k.a. network embedding) in attributed graphs. Different from existing embedding methods that treat the incorporation of graph structure and semantic as the simple combination of two optimization objectives, we propose a novel semantic graph representation (SGR) method to formulate the joint optimization of the two heterogeneous sources into a common high-order proximity based framework. Concretely, we first construct an auxiliary weighted graph, where the complex homogeneous and heterogeneous relations among nodes and attributes in the original graph are comprehensively encoded. Conventional embedding methods that consider high-order topology proximities can then be easily applied to the newly constructed graph to learn the representations of both node and attribute while capturing the nonlinear high-order intrinsic correlation inside or among graph structure and semantic. The learned attribute embeddings can also effectively support some semantic-oriented inference tasks (e.g., semantic community detection), helping to reveal the graph's deep semantic. The effectiveness of SGR is further verified on a series of real graphs, where it achieves impressive performance over other baselines.
A fast topological approach for predicting anomalies in time-varying graphs
Authors: Umar Islambekov, Hasani Pathirana, Omid Khormali, Cuneyt Akcora, Ekaterina Smirnova
Date: 2023-05-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Change Point Detection, Topological Data Analysis

Large time-varying graphs are increasingly common in financial, social and biological settings. Feature extraction that efficiently encodes the complex structure of sparse, multi-layered, dynamic graphs presents computational and methodological challenges. In the past decade, a persistence diagram (PD) from topological data analysis (TDA) has become a popular descriptor of shape of data with a well-defined distance between points. However, applications of TDA to graphs, where there is no intrinsic concept of distance between the nodes, remain largely unexplored. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by introducing a computationally efficient framework to extract shape information from graph data. Our framework has two main steps: first, we compute a PD using the so-called lower-star filtration which utilizes quantitative node attributes, and then vectorize it by averaging the associated Betti function over successive scale values on a one-dimensional grid. Our approach avoids embedding a graph into a metric space and has stability properties against input noise. In simulation studies, we show that the proposed vector summary leads to improved change point detection rate in time-varying graphs. In a real data application, our approach provides up to 22% gain in anomalous price prediction for the Ethereum cryptocurrency transaction networks.
ST-GIN: An Uncertainty Quantification Approach in Traffic Data Imputation with Spatio-temporal Graph Attention and Bidirectional Recurrent United Neural Networks
Authors: Zepu Wang, Dingyi Zhuang, Yankai Li, Jinhua Zhao, Peng Sun, Shenhao Wang, Yulin Hu
Date: 2023-05-10 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Learning, Graph Attention, Imputation, Missing Values, Tensor Decomposition, Traffic Data Imputation, Uncertainty Quantification

Traffic data serves as a fundamental component in both research and applications within intelligent transportation systems. However, real-world transportation data, collected from loop detectors or similar sources, often contains missing values (MVs), which can adversely impact associated applications and research. Instead of discarding this incomplete data, researchers have sought to recover these missing values through numerical statistics, tensor decomposition, and deep learning techniques. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep learning approach for imputing missing data. A graph attention architecture is employed to capture the spatial correlations present in traffic data, while a bidirectional neural network is utilized to learn temporal information. Experimental results indicate that our proposed method outperforms all other benchmark techniques, thus demonstrating its effectiveness.
Do LLMs Understand User Preferences? Evaluating LLMs On User Rating Prediction
Authors: Wang-Cheng Kang, Jianmo Ni, Nikhil Mehta, Maheswaran Sathiamoorthy, Lichan Hong, Ed Chi, Derek Zhiyuan Cheng
Date: 2023-05-10 00:00:00
Tasks: Collaborative Filtering, World Knowledge

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generalizing to new tasks in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. However, the extent to which LLMs can comprehend user preferences based on their previous behavior remains an emerging and still unclear research question. Traditionally, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been the most effective method for these tasks, predominantly relying on the extensive volume of rating data. In contrast, LLMs typically demand considerably less data while maintaining an exhaustive world knowledge about each item, such as movies or products. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of both CF and LLMs within the classic task of user rating prediction, which involves predicting a user's rating for a candidate item based on their past ratings. We investigate various LLMs in different sizes, ranging from 250M to 540B parameters and evaluate their performance in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios. We conduct comprehensive analysis to compare between LLMs and strong CF methods, and find that zero-shot LLMs lag behind traditional recommender models that have the access to user interaction data, indicating the importance of user interaction data. However, through fine-tuning, LLMs achieve comparable or even better performance with only a small fraction of the training data, demonstrating their potential through data efficiency.
Securing Distributed SGD against Gradient Leakage Threats
Authors: Wenqi Wei, Ling Liu, Jingya Zhou, Ka-Ho Chow, Yanzhao Wu
Date: 2023-05-10 00:00:00
Tasks: Federated Learning

This paper presents a holistic approach to gradient leakage resilient distributed Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). First, we analyze two types of strategies for privacy-enhanced federated learning: (i) gradient pruning with random selection or low-rank filtering and (ii) gradient perturbation with additive random noise or differential privacy noise. We analyze the inherent limitations of these approaches and their underlying impact on privacy guarantee, model accuracy, and attack resilience. Next, we present a gradient leakage resilient approach to securing distributed SGD in federated learning, with differential privacy controlled noise as the tool. Unlike conventional methods with the per-client federated noise injection and fixed noise parameter strategy, our approach keeps track of the trend of per-example gradient updates. It makes adaptive noise injection closely aligned throughout the federated model training. Finally, we provide an empirical privacy analysis on the privacy guarantee, model utility, and attack resilience of the proposed approach. Extensive evaluation using five benchmark datasets demonstrates that our gradient leakage resilient approach can outperform the state-of-the-art methods with competitive accuracy performance, strong differential privacy guarantee, and high resilience against gradient leakage attacks. The code associated with this paper can be found: https://github.com/git-disl/Fed-alphaCDP.
Dynamic Graph Representation Learning for Depression Screening with Transformer
Authors: Ai-Te Kuo, Haiquan Chen, Yu-Hsuan Kuo, Wei-Shinn Ku
Date: 2023-05-10 00:00:00
Tasks: Contrastive Learning, Depression Detection, Feature Engineering, Graph Representation Learning, Representation Learning

Early detection of mental disorder is crucial as it enables prompt intervention and treatment, which can greatly improve outcomes for individuals suffering from debilitating mental affliction. The recent proliferation of mental health discussions on social media platforms presents research opportunities to investigate mental health and potentially detect instances of mental illness. However, existing depression detection methods are constrained due to two major limitations: (1) the reliance on feature engineering and (2) the lack of consideration for time-varying factors. Specifically, these methods require extensive feature engineering and domain knowledge, which heavily rely on the amount, quality, and type of user-generated content. Moreover, these methods ignore the important impact of time-varying factors on depression detection, such as the dynamics of linguistic patterns and interpersonal interactive behaviors over time on social media (e.g., replies, mentions, and quote-tweets). To tackle these limitations, we propose an early depression detection framework, ContrastEgo treats each user as a dynamic time-evolving attributed graph (ego-network) and leverages supervised contrastive learning to maximize the agreement of users' representations at different scales while minimizing the agreement of users' representations to differentiate between depressed and control groups. ContrastEgo embraces four modules, (1) constructing users' heterogeneous interactive graphs, (2) extracting the representations of users' interaction snapshots using graph neural networks, (3) modeling the sequences of snapshots using attention mechanism, and (4) depression detection using contrastive learning. Extensive experiments on Twitter data demonstrate that ContrastEgo significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of all the effectiveness metrics in various experimental settings.