pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks
Authors: Katherine Goode, Daniel Ries, Kellie McClernon
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Efficient Neural Network, Feature Importance

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatio-temporal climate data. Like other neural networks, ESNs are non-interpretable black-box models, which poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatio-temporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we select a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which we use as a proxy for an artificial stratospheric aerosol injection. Using the proposed approach, we are able to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event.
Prometheus: Inducing Fine-grained Evaluation Capability in Language Models
Authors: Seungone Kim, Jamin Shin, Yejin Cho, Joel Jang, Shayne Longpre, Hwaran Lee, Sangdoo Yun, Seongjin Shin, Sungdong Kim, James Thorne, Minjoon Seo
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Language Modelling, Large Language Model

Recently, using a powerful proprietary Large Language Model (LLM) (e.g., GPT-4) as an evaluator for long-form responses has become the de facto standard. However, for practitioners with large-scale evaluation tasks and custom criteria in consideration (e.g., child-readability), using proprietary LLMs as an evaluator is unreliable due to the closed-source nature, uncontrolled versioning, and prohibitive costs. In this work, we propose Prometheus, a fully open-source LLM that is on par with GPT-4's evaluation capabilities when the appropriate reference materials (reference answer, score rubric) are accompanied. We first construct the Feedback Collection, a new dataset that consists of 1K fine-grained score rubrics, 20K instructions, and 100K responses and language feedback generated by GPT-4. Using the Feedback Collection, we train Prometheus, a 13B evaluator LLM that can assess any given long-form text based on customized score rubric provided by the user. Experimental results show that Prometheus scores a Pearson correlation of 0.897 with human evaluators when evaluating with 45 customized score rubrics, which is on par with GPT-4 (0.882), and greatly outperforms ChatGPT (0.392). Furthermore, measuring correlation with GPT-4 with 1222 customized score rubrics across four benchmarks (MT Bench, Vicuna Bench, Feedback Bench, Flask Eval) shows similar trends, bolstering Prometheus's capability as an evaluator LLM. Lastly, Prometheus achieves the highest accuracy on two human preference benchmarks (HHH Alignment & MT Bench Human Judgment) compared to open-sourced reward models explicitly trained on human preference datasets, highlighting its potential as an universal reward model. We open-source our code, dataset, and model at https://kaistai.github.io/prometheus/.
Strategies and impact of learning curve estimation for CNN-based image classification
Authors: Laura Didyk, Brayden Yarish, Michael A. Beck, Christopher P. Bidinosti, Christopher J. Henry
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: image-classification, Image Classification

Learning curves are a measure for how the performance of machine learning models improves given a certain volume of training data. Over a wide variety of applications and models it was observed that learning curves follow -- to a large extent -- a power law behavior. This makes the performance of different models for a given task somewhat predictable and opens the opportunity to reduce the training time for practitioners, who are exploring the space of possible models and hyperparameters for the problem at hand. By estimating the learning curve of a model from training on small subsets of data only the best models need to be considered for training on the full dataset. How to choose subset sizes and how often to sample models on these to obtain estimates is however not researched. Given that the goal is to reduce overall training time strategies are needed that sample the performance in a time-efficient way and yet leads to accurate learning curve estimates. In this paper we formulate the framework for these strategies and propose several strategies. Further we evaluate the strategies for simulated learning curves and in experiments with popular datasets and models for image classification tasks.
Differentially Private Non-convex Learning for Multi-layer Neural Networks
Authors: Hanpu Shen, Cheng-Long Wang, Zihang Xiang, Yiming Ying, Di Wang
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Stochastic Optimization

This paper focuses on the problem of Differentially Private Stochastic Optimization for (multi-layer) fully connected neural networks with a single output node. In the first part, we examine cases with no hidden nodes, specifically focusing on Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). We investigate the well-specific model where the random noise possesses a zero mean, and the link function is both bounded and Lipschitz continuous. We propose several algorithms and our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of achieving an excess population risk that remains invariant to the data dimension. We also delve into the scenario involving the ReLU link function, and our findings mirror those of the bounded link function. We conclude this section by contrasting well-specified and misspecified models, using ReLU regression as a representative example. In the second part of the paper, we extend our ideas to two-layer neural networks with sigmoid or ReLU activation functions in the well-specified model. In the third part, we study the theoretical guarantees of DP-SGD in Abadi et al. (2016) for fully connected multi-layer neural networks. By utilizing recent advances in Neural Tangent Kernel theory, we provide the first excess population risk when both the sample size and the width of the network are sufficiently large. Additionally, we discuss the role of some parameters in DP-SGD regarding their utility, both theoretically and empirically.
Introducing a Deep Neural Network-based Model Predictive Control Framework for Rapid Controller Implementation
Authors: David C. Gordon, Alexander Winkler, Julian Bedei, Patrick Schaber, Jakob Andert, Charles R. Koch
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) provides an optimal control solution based on a cost function while allowing for the implementation of process constraints. As a model-based optimal control technique, the performance of MPC strongly depends on the model used where a trade-off between model computation time and prediction performance exists. One solution is the integration of MPC with a machine learning (ML) based process model which are quick to evaluate online. This work presents the experimental implementation of a deep neural network (DNN) based nonlinear MPC for Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) combustion control. The DNN model consists of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network surrounded by fully connected layers which was trained using experimental engine data and showed acceptable prediction performance with under 5% error for all outputs. Using this model, the MPC is designed to track the Indicated Mean Effective Pressure (IMEP) and combustion phasing trajectories, while minimizing several parameters. Using the acados software package to enable the real-time implementation of the MPC on an ARM Cortex A72, the optimization calculations are completed within 1.4 ms. The external A72 processor is integrated with the prototyping engine controller using a UDP connection allowing for rapid experimental deployment of the NMPC. The IMEP trajectory following of the developed controller was excellent, with a root-mean-square error of 0.133 bar, in addition to observing process constraints.
How Many Pretraining Tasks Are Needed for In-Context Learning of Linear Regression?
Authors: Jingfeng Wu, Difan Zou, Zixiang Chen, Vladimir Braverman, Quanquan Gu, Peter L. Bartlett
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: In-Context Learning, regression

Transformers pretrained on diverse tasks exhibit remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities, enabling them to solve unseen tasks solely based on input contexts without adjusting model parameters. In this paper, we study ICL in one of its simplest setups: pretraining a linearly parameterized single-layer linear attention model for linear regression with a Gaussian prior. We establish a statistical task complexity bound for the attention model pretraining, showing that effective pretraining only requires a small number of independent tasks. Furthermore, we prove that the pretrained model closely matches the Bayes optimal algorithm, i.e., optimally tuned ridge regression, by achieving nearly Bayes optimal risk on unseen tasks under a fixed context length. These theoretical findings complement prior experimental research and shed light on the statistical foundations of ICL.
Towards Demystifying the Generalization Behaviors When Neural Collapse Emerges
Authors: Peifeng Gao, Qianqian Xu, Yibo Yang, Peisong Wen, Huiyang Shao, Zhiyong Yang, Bernard Ghanem, Qingming Huang
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00

Neural Collapse (NC) is a well-known phenomenon of deep neural networks in the terminal phase of training (TPT). It is characterized by the collapse of features and classifier into a symmetrical structure, known as simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF). While there have been extensive studies on optimization characteristics showing the global optimality of neural collapse, little research has been done on the generalization behaviors during the occurrence of NC. Particularly, the important phenomenon of generalization improvement during TPT has been remaining in an empirical observation and lacking rigorous theoretical explanation. In this paper, we establish the connection between the minimization of CE and a multi-class SVM during TPT, and then derive a multi-class margin generalization bound, which provides a theoretical explanation for why continuing training can still lead to accuracy improvement on test set, even after the train accuracy has reached 100%. Additionally, our further theoretical results indicate that different alignment between labels and features in a simplex ETF can result in varying degrees of generalization improvement, despite all models reaching NC and demonstrating similar optimization performance on train set. We refer to this newly discovered property as "non-conservative generalization". In experiments, we also provide empirical observations to verify the indications suggested by our theoretical results.
Neural Diffusion Models
Authors: Grigory Bartosh, Dmitry Vetrov, Christian A. Naesseth
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Image Generation

Diffusion models have shown remarkable performance on many generative tasks. Despite recent success, most diffusion models are restricted in that they only allow linear transformation of the data distribution. In contrast, broader family of transformations can potentially help train generative distributions more efficiently, simplifying the reverse process and closing the gap between the true negative log-likelihood and the variational approximation. In this paper, we present Neural Diffusion Models (NDMs), a generalization of conventional diffusion models that enables defining and learning time-dependent non-linear transformations of data. We show how to optimise NDMs using a variational bound in a simulation-free setting. Moreover, we derive a time-continuous formulation of NDMs, which allows fast and reliable inference using off-the-shelf numerical ODE and SDE solvers. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of NDMs with learnable transformations through experiments on standard image generation benchmarks, including CIFAR-10, downsampled versions of ImageNet and CelebA-HQ. NDMs outperform conventional diffusion models in terms of likelihood and produce high-quality samples.
Dealing with uncertainty: balancing exploration and exploitation in deep recurrent reinforcement learning
Authors: Valentina Zangirolami, Matteo Borrotti
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Autonomous Driving, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Incomplete knowledge of the environment leads an agent to make decisions under uncertainty. One of the major dilemmas in Reinforcement Learning (RL) where an autonomous agent has to balance two contrasting needs in making its decisions is: exploiting the current knowledge of the environment to maximize the cumulative reward as well as exploring actions that allow improving the knowledge of the environment, hopefully leading to higher reward values (exploration-exploitation trade-off). Concurrently, another relevant issue regards the full observability of the states, which may not be assumed in all applications. For instance, when 2D images are considered as input in an RL approach used for finding the best actions within a 3D simulation environment. In this work, we address these issues by deploying and testing several techniques to balance exploration and exploitation trade-off on partially observable systems for predicting steering wheels in autonomous driving scenarios. More precisely, the final aim is to investigate the effects of using both adaptive and deterministic exploration strategies coupled with a Deep Recurrent Q-Network. Additionally, we adapted and evaluated the impact of a modified quadratic loss function to improve the learning phase of the underlying Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network. We show that adaptive methods better approximate the trade-off between exploration and exploitation and, in general, Softmax and Max-Boltzmann strategies outperform epsilon-greedy techniques.
A Symmetry-Aware Exploration of Bayesian Neural Network Posteriors
Authors: Olivier Laurent, Emanuel Aldea, Gianni Franchi
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Uncertainty Quantification

The distribution of the weights of modern deep neural networks (DNNs) - crucial for uncertainty quantification and robustness - is an eminently complex object due to its extremely high dimensionality. This paper proposes one of the first large-scale explorations of the posterior distribution of deep Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), expanding its study to real-world vision tasks and architectures. Specifically, we investigate the optimal approach for approximating the posterior, analyze the connection between posterior quality and uncertainty quantification, delve into the impact of modes on the posterior, and explore methods for visualizing the posterior. Moreover, we uncover weight-space symmetries as a critical aspect for understanding the posterior. To this extent, we develop an in-depth assessment of the impact of both permutation and scaling symmetries that tend to obfuscate the Bayesian posterior. While the first type of transformation is known for duplicating modes, we explore the relationship between the latter and L2 regularization, challenging previous misconceptions. Finally, to help the community improve our understanding of the Bayesian posterior, we will shortly release the first large-scale checkpoint dataset, including thousands of real-world models and our codes.
Data driven modeling for self-similar dynamics
Authors: Ruyi Tao, Ningning Tao, Yi-Zhuang You, Jiang Zhang
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00

Multiscale modeling of complex systems is crucial for understanding their intricacies. Data-driven multiscale modeling has emerged as a promising approach to tackle challenges associated with complex systems. On the other hand, self-similarity is prevalent in complex systems, hinting that large-scale complex systems can be modeled at a reduced cost. In this paper, we introduce a multiscale neural network framework that incorporates self-similarity as prior knowledge, facilitating the modeling of self-similar dynamical systems. For deterministic dynamics, our framework can discern whether the dynamics are self-similar. For uncertain dynamics, it can compare and determine which parameter set is closer to self-similarity. The framework allows us to extract scale-invariant kernels from the dynamics for modeling at any scale. Moreover, our method can identify the power law exponents in self-similar systems. Preliminary tests on the Ising model yielded critical exponents consistent with theoretical expectations, providing valuable insights for addressing critical phase transitions in non-equilibrium systems.
Emergence of Latent Binary Encoding in Deep Neural Network Classifiers
Authors: Luigi Sbailò, Luca Ghiringhelli
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00

We investigate the emergence of binary encoding within the latent space of deep-neural-network classifiers. Such binary encoding is induced by the introduction of a linear penultimate layer, which employs during training a loss function specifically designed to compress the latent representations. As a result of a trade-off between compression and information retention, the network learns to assume only one of two possible values for each dimension in the latent space. The binary encoding is provoked by the collapse of all representations of the same class to the same point, which corresponds to the vertex of a hypercube. By analyzing several datasets of increasing complexity, we provide empirical evidence that the emergence of binary encoding dramatically enhances robustness while also significantly improving the reliability and generalization of the network.
Conformal inference for regression on Riemannian Manifolds
Authors: Alejandro Cholaquidis, Fabrice Gamboa, Leonardo Moreno
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

Regression on manifolds, and, more broadly, statistics on manifolds, has garnered significant importance in recent years due to the vast number of applications for this type of data. Circular data is a classic example, but so is data in the space of covariance matrices, data on the Grassmannian manifold obtained as a result of principal component analysis, among many others. In this work we investigate prediction sets for regression scenarios when the response variable, denoted by $Y$, resides in a manifold, and the covariable, denoted by X, lies in Euclidean space. This extends the concepts delineated in [Lei and Wasserman, 2014] to this novel context. Aligning with traditional principles in conformal inference, these prediction sets are distribution-free, indicating that no specific assumptions are imposed on the joint distribution of $(X, Y)$, and they maintain a non-parametric character. We prove the asymptotic almost sure convergence of the empirical version of these regions on the manifold to their population counterparts. The efficiency of this method is shown through a comprehensive simulation study and an analysis involving real-world data.
Infinite Width Graph Neural Networks for Node Regression/ Classification
Authors: Yunus Cobanoglu
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Gaussian Processes, Graph Attention, Graph Learning, Graph Neural Network, Graph Regression, Node Regression, regression

This work analyzes Graph Neural Networks, a generalization of Fully-Connected Deep Neural Nets on Graph structured data, when their width, that is the number of nodes in each fullyconnected layer is increasing to infinity. Infinite Width Neural Networks are connecting Deep Learning to Gaussian Processes and Kernels, both Machine Learning Frameworks with long traditions and extensive theoretical foundations. Gaussian Processes and Kernels have much less hyperparameters then Neural Networks and can be used for uncertainty estimation, making them more user friendly for applications. This works extends the increasing amount of research connecting Gaussian Processes and Kernels to Neural Networks. The Kernel and Gaussian Process closed forms are derived for a variety of architectures, namely the standard Graph Neural Network, the Graph Neural Network with Skip-Concatenate Connections and the Graph Attention Neural Network. All architectures are evaluated on a variety of datasets on the task of transductive Node Regression and Classification. Additionally, a Spectral Sparsification method known as Effective Resistance is used to improve runtime and memory requirements. Extending the setting to inductive graph learning tasks (Graph Regression/ Classification) is straightforward and is briefly discussed in 3.5.
Interpreting Learned Feedback Patterns in Large Language Models
Authors: Luke Marks, Amir Abdullah, Clement Neo, Rauno Arike, David Krueger, Philip Torr, Fazl Barez
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is widely used to train large language models (LLMs). However, it is unclear whether LLMs accurately learn the underlying preferences in human feedback data. We coin the term \textit{Learned Feedback Pattern} (LFP) for patterns in an LLM's activations learned during RLHF that improve its performance on the fine-tuning task. We hypothesize that LLMs with LFPs accurately aligned to the fine-tuning feedback exhibit consistent activation patterns for outputs that would have received similar feedback during RLHF. To test this, we train probes to estimate the feedback signal implicit in the activations of a fine-tuned LLM. We then compare these estimates to the true feedback, measuring how accurate the LFPs are to the fine-tuning feedback. Our probes are trained on a condensed, sparse and interpretable representation of LLM activations, making it easier to correlate features of the input with our probe's predictions. We validate our probes by comparing the neural features they correlate with positive feedback inputs against the features GPT-4 describes and classifies as related to LFPs. Understanding LFPs can help minimize discrepancies between LLM behavior and training objectives, which is essential for the safety of LLMs.
On Extreme Value Asymptotics of Projected Sample Covariances in High Dimensions with Applications in Finance and Convolutional Networks
Authors: Ansgar Steland
Date: 2023-10-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Portfolio Optimization, Time Series

Maximum-type statistics of certain functions of the sample covariance matrix of high-dimensional vector time series are studied to statistically confirm or reject the null hypothesis that a data set has been collected under normal conditions. The approach generalizes the case of the maximal deviation of the sample autocovariances function from its assumed values. Within a linear time series framework it is shown that Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics holds true. As applications we discuss long-only mimimal-variance portfolio optimization and subportfolio analysis with respect to idiosyncratic risks, ETF index tracking by sparse tracking portfolios, convolutional deep learners for image analysis and the analysis of array-of-sensors data.