pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Model error and its estimation, with particular application to loss reserving
Authors: G Taylor, G McGuire
Date: 2022-09-30 00:00:00

This paper is concerned with forecast error, particularly in relation to loss reserving. This is generally regarded as consisting of three components, namely parameter, process and model errors. The first two of these components, and their estimation, are well understood, but less so model error. Model error itself is considered in two parts: one part that is capable of estimation from past data (internal model error), and another part that is not (external model error). Attention is focused here on internal model error. Estimation of this error component is approached by means of Bayesian model averaging, using the Bayesian interpretation of the LASSO. This is used to generate a set of admissible models, each with its prior probability and the likelihood of observed data. A posterior on the model set, conditional on the data, results, and an estimate of model error (contained in a loss reserve) is obtained as the variance of the loss reserve according to this posterior. The population of models entering materially into the support of the posterior may turn out to be thinner than desired, and bootstrapping of the LASSO is used to gain bulk. This provides the bonus of an estimate of parameter error also. It turns out that the estimates of parameter and model errors are entangled, and dissociation of them is at least difficult, and possibly not even meaningful. These matters are discussed. The majority of the discussion applies to forecasting generally, but numerical illustration of the concepts is given in relation to insurance data and the problem of insurance loss reserving.
Predicting the Future of AI with AI: High-quality link prediction in an exponentially growing knowledge network
Authors: Mario Krenn, Lorenzo Buffoni, Bruno Coutinho, Sagi Eppel, Jacob Gates Foster, Andrew Gritsevskiy, Harlin Lee, Yichao Lu, Joao P. Moutinho, Nima Sanjabi, Rishi Sonthalia, Ngoc Mai Tran, Francisco Valente, Yangxinyu Xie, Rose Yu, Michael Kopp
Date: 2022-09-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Link Prediction

A tool that could suggest new personalized research directions and ideas by taking insights from the scientific literature could significantly accelerate the progress of science. A field that might benefit from such an approach is artificial intelligence (AI) research, where the number of scientific publications has been growing exponentially over the last years, making it challenging for human researchers to keep track of the progress. Here, we use AI techniques to predict the future research directions of AI itself. We develop a new graph-based benchmark based on real-world data -- the Science4Cast benchmark, which aims to predict the future state of an evolving semantic network of AI. For that, we use more than 100,000 research papers and build up a knowledge network with more than 64,000 concept nodes. We then present ten diverse methods to tackle this task, ranging from pure statistical to pure learning methods. Surprisingly, the most powerful methods use a carefully curated set of network features, rather than an end-to-end AI approach. It indicates a great potential that can be unleashed for purely ML approaches without human knowledge. Ultimately, better predictions of new future research directions will be a crucial component of more advanced research suggestion tools.
Scaling Laws for a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Model
Authors: Oren Neumann, Claudius Gros
Date: 2022-09-29 00:00:00
Tasks: Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

The recent observation of neural power-law scaling relations has made a significant impact in the field of deep learning. A substantial amount of attention has been dedicated as a consequence to the description of scaling laws, although mostly for supervised learning and only to a reduced extent for reinforcement learning frameworks. In this paper we present an extensive study of performance scaling for a cornerstone reinforcement learning algorithm, AlphaZero. On the basis of a relationship between Elo rating, playing strength and power-law scaling, we train AlphaZero agents on the games Connect Four and Pentago and analyze their performance. We find that player strength scales as a power law in neural network parameter count when not bottlenecked by available compute, and as a power of compute when training optimally sized agents. We observe nearly identical scaling exponents for both games. Combining the two observed scaling laws we obtain a power law relating optimal size to compute similar to the ones observed for language models. We find that the predicted scaling of optimal neural network size fits our data for both games. This scaling law implies that previously published state-of-the-art game-playing models are significantly smaller than their optimal size, given the respective compute budgets. We also show that large AlphaZero models are more sample efficient, performing better than smaller models with the same amount of training data.
Deep learning and multi-level featurization of graph representations of microstructural data
Authors: Reese Jones, Cosmin Safta, Ari Frankel
Date: 2022-09-29 00:00:00

Many material response functions depend strongly on microstructure, such as inhomogeneities in phase or orientation. Homogenization presents the task of predicting the mean response of a sample of the microstructure to external loading for use in subgrid models and structure-property explorations. Although many microstructural fields have obvious segmentations, learning directly from the graph induced by the segmentation can be difficult because this representation does not encode all the information of the full field. We develop a means of deep learning of hidden features on the reduced graph given the native discretization and a segmentation of the initial input field. The features are associated with regions represented as nodes on the reduced graph. This reduced representation is then the basis for the subsequent multi-level/scale graph convolutional network model. There are a number of advantages of reducing the graph before fully processing with convolutional layers it, such as interpretable features and efficiency on large meshes. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed network relative to convolutional neural networks operating directly on the native discretization of the data using three physical exemplars.
One Transformer Can Understand Both 2D & 3D Molecular Data
Authors: Shengjie Luo, Tianlang Chen, Yixian Xu, Shuxin Zheng, Tie-Yan Liu, LiWei Wang, Di He
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Graph Regression, molecular representation, Representation Learning

Unlike vision and language data which usually has a unique format, molecules can naturally be characterized using different chemical formulations. One can view a molecule as a 2D graph or define it as a collection of atoms located in a 3D space. For molecular representation learning, most previous works designed neural networks only for a particular data format, making the learned models likely to fail for other data formats. We believe a general-purpose neural network model for chemistry should be able to handle molecular tasks across data modalities. To achieve this goal, in this work, we develop a novel Transformer-based Molecular model called Transformer-M, which can take molecular data of 2D or 3D formats as input and generate meaningful semantic representations. Using the standard Transformer as the backbone architecture, Transformer-M develops two separated channels to encode 2D and 3D structural information and incorporate them with the atom features in the network modules. When the input data is in a particular format, the corresponding channel will be activated, and the other will be disabled. By training on 2D and 3D molecular data with properly designed supervised signals, Transformer-M automatically learns to leverage knowledge from different data modalities and correctly capture the representations. We conducted extensive experiments for Transformer-M. All empirical results show that Transformer-M can simultaneously achieve strong performance on 2D and 3D tasks, suggesting its broad applicability. The code and models will be made publicly available at https://github.com/lsj2408/Transformer-M.
Real-Time Monitoring of User Stress, Heart Rate and Heart Rate Variability on Mobile Devices
Authors: Peyman Bateni, Leonid Sigal
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Heart rate estimation, Heart Rate Variability, Mental Stress Detection, Photoplethysmography (PPG), Photoplethysmography (PPG) beat detection, Photoplethysmography (PPG) heart rate estimation

Stress is considered to be the epidemic of the 21st-century. Yet, mobile apps cannot directly evaluate the impact of their content and services on user stress. We introduce the Beam AI SDK to address this issue. Using our SDK, apps can monitor user stress through the selfie camera in real-time. Our technology extracts the user's pulse wave by analyzing subtle color variations across the skin regions of the user's face. The user's pulse wave is then used to determine stress (according to the Baevsky Stress Index), heart rate, and heart rate variability. We evaluate our technology on the UBFC dataset, the MMSE-HR dataset, and Beam AI's internal data. Our technology achieves 99.2%, 97.8% and 98.5% accuracy for heart rate estimation on each benchmark respectively, a nearly twice lower error rate than competing methods. We further demonstrate an average Pearson correlation of 0.801 in determining stress and heart rate variability, thus producing commercially useful readings to derive content decisions in apps. Our SDK is available for use at www.beamhealth.ai.
Rethinking Lipschitz Neural Networks and Certified Robustness: A Boolean Function Perspective
Authors: Bohang Zhang, Du Jiang, Di He, LiWei Wang
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Robust classification

Designing neural networks with bounded Lipschitz constant is a promising way to obtain certifiably robust classifiers against adversarial examples. However, the relevant progress for the important $\ell_\infty$ perturbation setting is rather limited, and a principled understanding of how to design expressive $\ell_\infty$ Lipschitz networks is still lacking. In this paper, we bridge the gap by studying certified $\ell_\infty$ robustness from a novel perspective of representing Boolean functions. We derive two fundamental impossibility results that hold for any standard Lipschitz network: one for robust classification on finite datasets, and the other for Lipschitz function approximation. These results identify that networks built upon norm-bounded affine layers and Lipschitz activations intrinsically lose expressive power even in the two-dimensional case, and shed light on how recently proposed Lipschitz networks (e.g., GroupSort and $\ell_\infty$-distance nets) bypass these impossibilities by leveraging order statistic functions. Finally, based on these insights, we develop a unified Lipschitz network that generalizes prior works, and design a practical version that can be efficiently trained (making certified robust training free). Extensive experiments show that our approach is scalable, efficient, and consistently yields better certified robustness across multiple datasets and perturbation radii than prior Lipschitz networks. Our code is available at https://github.com/zbh2047/SortNet.
HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequences
Authors: Siqiao Xue, Xiaoming Shi, james Y zhang, Hongyuan Mei
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.
Modular Approach to Machine Reading Comprehension: Mixture of Task-Aware Experts
Authors: Anirudha Rayasam, Anusha Kamath, Gabriel Bayomi Tinoco Kalejaiye
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Common Sense Reasoning, Machine Reading Comprehension, Reading Comprehension, Transfer Learning, Triplet

In this work we present a Mixture of Task-Aware Experts Network for Machine Reading Comprehension on a relatively small dataset. We particularly focus on the issue of common-sense learning, enforcing the common ground knowledge by specifically training different expert networks to capture different kinds of relationships between each passage, question and choice triplet. Moreover, we take inspi ration on the recent advancements of multitask and transfer learning by training each network a relevant focused task. By making the mixture-of-networks aware of a specific goal by enforcing a task and a relationship, we achieve state-of-the-art results and reduce over-fitting.
Learning from Demonstrations of Critical Driving Behaviours Using Driver's Risk Field
Authors: Yurui Du, Flavia Sofia Acerbo, Jens Kober, Tong Duy Son
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Imitation Learning

In recent years, imitation learning (IL) has been widely used in industry as the core of autonomous vehicle (AV) planning modules. However, previous IL works show sample inefficiency and low generalisation in safety-critical scenarios, on which they are rarely tested. As a result, IL planners can reach a performance plateau where adding more training data ceases to improve the learnt policy. First, our work presents an IL model using the spline coefficient parameterisation and offline expert queries to enhance safety and training efficiency. Then, we expose the weakness of the learnt IL policy by synthetically generating critical scenarios through optimisation of parameters of the driver's risk field (DRF), a parametric human driving behaviour model implemented in a multi-agent traffic simulator based on the Lyft Prediction Dataset. To continuously improve the learnt policy, we retrain the IL model with augmented data. Thanks to the expressivity and interpretability of the DRF, the desired driving behaviours can be encoded and aggregated to the original training data. Our work constitutes a full development cycle that can efficiently and continuously improve the learnt IL policies in closed-loop. Finally, we show that our IL planner developed with less training resource still has superior performance compared to the previous state-of-the-art.
MEDFAIR: Benchmarking Fairness for Medical Imaging
Authors: Yongshuo Zong, Yongxin Yang, Timothy Hospedales
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Benchmarking, Fairness, Medical Diagnosis, Model Selection

A multitude of work has shown that machine learning-based medical diagnosis systems can be biased against certain subgroups of people. This has motivated a growing number of bias mitigation algorithms that aim to address fairness issues in machine learning. However, it is difficult to compare their effectiveness in medical imaging for two reasons. First, there is little consensus on the criteria to assess fairness. Second, existing bias mitigation algorithms are developed under different settings, e.g., datasets, model selection strategies, backbones, and fairness metrics, making a direct comparison and evaluation based on existing results impossible. In this work, we introduce MEDFAIR, a framework to benchmark the fairness of machine learning models for medical imaging. MEDFAIR covers eleven algorithms from various categories, nine datasets from different imaging modalities, and three model selection criteria. Through extensive experiments, we find that the under-studied issue of model selection criterion can have a significant impact on fairness outcomes; while in contrast, state-of-the-art bias mitigation algorithms do not significantly improve fairness outcomes over empirical risk minimization (ERM) in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings. We evaluate fairness from various perspectives and make recommendations for different medical application scenarios that require different ethical principles. Our framework provides a reproducible and easy-to-use entry point for the development and evaluation of future bias mitigation algorithms in deep learning. Code is available at https://github.com/ys-zong/MEDFAIR.
Dense Prediction Transformer for Scale Estimation in Monocular Visual Odometry
Authors: André O. Françani, Marcos R. O. A. Maximo
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Autonomous Vehicles, Monocular Visual Odometry, Position, Visual Odometry

Monocular visual odometry consists of the estimation of the position of an agent through images of a single camera, and it is applied in autonomous vehicles, medical robots, and augmented reality. However, monocular systems suffer from the scale ambiguity problem due to the lack of depth information in 2D frames. This paper contributes by showing an application of the dense prediction transformer model for scale estimation in monocular visual odometry systems. Experimental results show that the scale drift problem of monocular systems can be reduced through the accurate estimation of the depth map by this model, achieving competitive state-of-the-art performance on a visual odometry benchmark.
MBW: Multi-view Bootstrapping in the Wild
Authors: Mosam Dabhi, Chaoyang Wang, Tim Clifford, Laszlo Attila Jeni, Ian R. Fasel, Simon Lucey
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: 3D Reconstruction, Pose Estimation, Semi-supervised 2D and 3D landmark labeling, Unsupervised Landmark Detection

Labeling articulated objects in unconstrained settings have a wide variety of applications including entertainment, neuroscience, psychology, ethology, and many fields of medicine. Large offline labeled datasets do not exist for all but the most common articulated object categories (e.g., humans). Hand labeling these landmarks within a video sequence is a laborious task. Learned landmark detectors can help, but can be error-prone when trained from only a few examples. Multi-camera systems that train fine-grained detectors have shown significant promise in detecting such errors, allowing for self-supervised solutions that only need a small percentage of the video sequence to be hand-labeled. The approach, however, is based on calibrated cameras and rigid geometry, making it expensive, difficult to manage, and impractical in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we address these bottlenecks by combining a non-rigid 3D neural prior with deep flow to obtain high-fidelity landmark estimates from videos with only two or three uncalibrated, handheld cameras. With just a few annotations (representing 1-2% of the frames), we are able to produce 2D results comparable to state-of-the-art fully supervised methods, along with 3D reconstructions that are impossible with other existing approaches. Our Multi-view Bootstrapping in the Wild (MBW) approach demonstrates impressive results on standard human datasets, as well as tigers, cheetahs, fish, colobus monkeys, chimpanzees, and flamingos from videos captured casually in a zoo. We release the codebase for MBW as well as this challenging zoo dataset consisting image frames of tail-end distribution categories with their corresponding 2D, 3D labels generated from minimal human intervention.
Learning Temporal Resolution in Spectrogram for Audio Classification
Authors: Haohe Liu, Xubo Liu, Qiuqiang Kong, Wenwu Wang, Mark D. Plumbley
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Audio Classification, General Classification

The audio spectrogram is a time-frequency representation that has been widely used for audio classification. One of the key attributes of the audio spectrogram is the temporal resolution, which depends on the hop size used in the Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT). Previous works generally assume the hop size should be a constant value (e.g., 10 ms). However, a fixed temporal resolution is not always optimal for different types of sound. The temporal resolution affects not only classification accuracy but also computational cost. This paper proposes a novel method, DiffRes, that enables differentiable temporal resolution modeling for audio classification. Given a spectrogram calculated with a fixed hop size, DiffRes merges non-essential time frames while preserving important frames. DiffRes acts as a "drop-in" module between an audio spectrogram and a classifier and can be jointly optimized with the classification task. We evaluate DiffRes on five audio classification tasks, using mel-spectrograms as the acoustic features, followed by off-the-shelf classifier backbones. Compared with previous methods using the fixed temporal resolution, the DiffRes-based method can achieve the equivalent or better classification accuracy with at least 25% computational cost reduction. We further show that DiffRes can improve classification accuracy by increasing the temporal resolution of input acoustic features, without adding to the computational cost.
A Fuzzy Logic-based Cascade Control without Actuator Saturation for the Unmanned Underwater Vehicle Trajectory Tracking
Authors: Danjie Zhu, Simon X. Yang, Mohammad Biglarbegian
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00

An intelligent control strategy is proposed to eliminate the actuator saturation problem that exists in the trajectory tracking process of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV). The control strategy consists of two parts: for the kinematic modeling part, a fuzzy logic-refined backstepping control is developed to achieve control velocities within acceptable ranges and errors of small fluctuations; on the basis of the velocities deducted by the improved kinematic control, the sliding mode control (SMC) is introduced in the dynamic modeling to obtain corresponding torques and forces that should be applied to the vehicle body. With the control velocities computed by the kinematic model and applied forces derived by the dynamic model, the robustness and accuracy of the UUV trajectory without actuator saturation can be achieved.
Blockchain-Based Decentralized Knowledge Marketplace Using Active Inference
Authors: Shashank Joshi, Arhan Choudhury
Date: 2022-10-04 00:00:00

A knowledge market can be described as a type of market where there is a consistent supply of data to satisfy the demand for information and is responsible for the mapping of potential problem solvers with the entities which need these solutions. It is possible to define them as value-exchange systems in which the dynamic features of the creation and exchange of intellectual assets serve as the fundamental drivers of the frequency, nature, and outcomes of interactions among various stakeholders. Furthermore, the provision of financial backing for research is an essential component in the process of developing a knowledge market that is capable of enduring over time, and it is also an essential driver of the progression of scientific investigation. This paper underlines flaws associated with the conventional knowledge-based market, including but not limited to excessive financing concentration, ineffective information exchange, a lack of security, mapping of entities, etc. The authors present a decentralized framework for the knowledge marketplace incorporating technologies such as blockchain, active inference, zero-knowledge proof, etc. The proposed decentralized framework provides not only an efficient mapping mechanism to map entities in the marketplace but also a more secure and controlled way to share knowledge and services among various stakeholders.