pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Estimating Latent Population Flows from Aggregated Data via Inversing Multi-Marginal Optimal Transport
Authors: Sikun Yang, Hongyuan Zha
Date: 2022-12-30 00:00:00

We study the problem of estimating latent population flows from aggregated count data. This problem arises when individual trajectories are not available due to privacy issues or measurement fidelity. Instead, the aggregated observations are measured over discrete-time points, for estimating the population flows among states. Most related studies tackle the problems by learning the transition parameters of a time-homogeneous Markov process. Nonetheless, most real-world population flows can be influenced by various uncertainties such as traffic jam and weather conditions. Thus, in many cases, a time-homogeneous Markov model is a poor approximation of the much more complex population flows. To circumvent this difficulty, we resort to a multi-marginal optimal transport (MOT) formulation that can naturally represent aggregated observations with constrained marginals, and encode time-dependent transition matrices by the cost functions. In particular, we propose to estimate the transition flows from aggregated data by learning the cost functions of the MOT framework, which enables us to capture time-varying dynamic patterns. The experiments demonstrate the improved accuracy of the proposed algorithms than the related methods in estimating several real-world transition flows.
Conformal Prediction Intervals for Remaining Useful Lifetime Estimation
Authors: Alireza Javanmardi, Eyke Hüllermeier
Date: 2022-12-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Conformal Prediction, Management, Prediction, Prediction Intervals, Remaining Useful Lifetime Estimation, valid

The main objective of Prognostics and Health Management is to estimate the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL), namely, the time that a system or a piece of equipment is still in working order before starting to function incorrectly. In recent years, numerous machine learning algorithms have been proposed for RUL estimation, mainly focusing on providing more accurate RUL predictions. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in the problem, such as inherent randomness of systems failure, lack of knowledge regarding their future states, and inaccuracy of the underlying predictive models, making it infeasible to predict the RULs precisely. Hence, it is of utmost importance to quantify the uncertainty alongside the RUL predictions. In this work, we investigate the conformal prediction (CP) framework that represents uncertainty by predicting sets of possible values for the target variable (intervals in the case of RUL) instead of making point predictions. Under very mild technical assumptions, CP formally guarantees that the actual value (true RUL) is covered by the predicted set with a degree of certainty that can be prespecified. We study three CP algorithms to conformalize any single-point RUL predictor and turn it into a valid interval predictor. Finally, we conformalize two single-point RUL predictors, deep convolutional neural networks and gradient boosting, and illustrate their performance on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) data sets.
Detecting Change Intervals with Isolation Distributional Kernel
Authors: Yang Cao, Ye Zhu, Kai Ming Ting, Flora D. Salim, Hong Xian Li, Luxing Yang, Gang Li
Date: 2022-12-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Change Point Detection

Detecting abrupt changes in data distribution is one of the most significant tasks in streaming data analysis. Although many unsupervised Change-Point Detection (CPD) methods have been proposed recently to identify those changes, they still suffer from missing subtle changes, poor scalability, or/and sensitivity to outliers. To meet these challenges, we are the first to generalise the CPD problem as a special case of the Change-Interval Detection (CID) problem. Then we propose a CID method, named iCID, based on a recent Isolation Distributional Kernel (IDK). iCID identifies the change interval if there is a high dissimilarity score between two non-homogeneous temporal adjacent intervals. The data-dependent property and finite feature map of IDK enabled iCID to efficiently identify various types of change-points in data streams with the tolerance of outliers. Moreover, the proposed online and offline versions of iCID have the ability to optimise key parameter settings. The effectiveness and efficiency of iCID have been systematically verified on both synthetic and real-world datasets.
Reservoir kernels and Volterra series
Authors: Lukas Gonon, Lyudmila Grigoryeva, Juan-Pablo Ortega
Date: 2022-12-30 00:00:00
Tasks: tensor algebra

A universal kernel is constructed whose sections approximate any causal and time-invariant filter in the fading memory category with inputs and outputs in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space. This kernel is built using the reservoir functional associated with a state-space representation of the Volterra series expansion available for any analytic fading memory filter. It is hence called the Volterra reservoir kernel. Even though the state-space representation and the corresponding reservoir feature map are defined on an infinite-dimensional tensor algebra space, the kernel map is characterized by explicit recursions that are readily computable for specific data sets when employed in estimation problems using the representer theorem. We showcase the performance of the Volterra reservoir kernel in a popular data science application in relation to bitcoin price prediction.
A Learning-Based Optimal Uncertainty Quantification Method and Its Application to Ballistic Impact Problems
Authors: Xingsheng Sun, Burigede Liu
Date: 2022-12-28 00:00:00
Tasks: Uncertainty Quantification

This paper concerns the study of optimal (supremum and infimum) uncertainty bounds for systems where the input (or prior) probability measure is only partially/imperfectly known (e.g., with only statistical moments and/or on a coarse topology) rather than fully specified. Such partial knowledge provides constraints on the input probability measures. The theory of Optimal Uncertainty Quantification allows us to convert the task into a constraint optimization problem where one seeks to compute the least upper/greatest lower bound of the system's output uncertainties by finding the extremal probability measure of the input. Such optimization requires repeated evaluation of the system's performance indicator (input to performance map) and is high-dimensional and non-convex by nature. Therefore, it is difficult to find the optimal uncertainty bounds in practice. In this paper, we examine the use of machine learning, especially deep neural networks, to address the challenge. We achieve this by introducing a neural network classifier to approximate the performance indicator combined with the stochastic gradient descent method to solve the optimization problem. We demonstrate the learning based framework on the uncertainty quantification of the impact of magnesium alloys, which are promising light-weight structural and protective materials. Finally, we show that the approach can be used to construct maps for the performance certificate and safety design in engineering practice.
Learning from Data Streams: An Overview and Update
Authors: Jesse Read, Indrė Žliobaitė
Date: 2022-12-30 00:00:00

The literature on machine learning in the context of data streams is vast and growing. However, many of the defining assumptions regarding data-stream learning tasks are too strong to hold in practice, or are even contradictory such that they cannot be met in the contexts of supervised learning. Algorithms are chosen and designed based on criteria which are often not clearly stated, for problem settings not clearly defined, tested in unrealistic settings, and/or in isolation from related approaches in the wider literature. This puts into question the potential for real-world impact of many approaches conceived in such contexts, and risks propagating a misguided research focus. We propose to tackle these issues by reformulating the fundamental definitions and settings of supervised data-stream learning with regard to contemporary considerations of concept drift and temporal dependence; and we take a fresh look at what constitutes a supervised data-stream learning task, and a reconsideration of algorithms that may be applied to tackle such tasks. Through and in reflection of this formulation and overview, helped by an informal survey of industrial players dealing with real-world data streams, we provide recommendations. Our main emphasis is that learning from data streams does not impose a single-pass or online-learning approach, or any particular learning regime; and any constraints on memory and time are not specific to streaming. Meanwhile, there exist established techniques for dealing with temporal dependence and concept drift, in other areas of the literature. For the data streams community, we thus encourage a shift in research focus, from dealing with often-artificial constraints and assumptions on the learning mode, to issues such as robustness, privacy, and interpretability which are increasingly relevant to learning in data streams in academic and industrial settings.
Asynchronous Hybrid Reinforcement Learning for Latency and Reliability Optimization in the Metaverse over Wireless Communications
Authors: Wenhan Yu, Terence Jie Chua, Jun Zhao
Date: 2022-12-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

Technology advancements in wireless communications and high-performance Extended Reality (XR) have empowered the developments of the Metaverse. The demand for the Metaverse applications and hence, real-time digital twinning of real-world scenes is increasing. Nevertheless, the replication of 2D physical world images into 3D virtual objects is computationally intensive and requires computation offloading. The disparity in transmitted object dimension (2D as opposed to 3D) leads to asymmetric data sizes in uplink (UL) and downlink (DL). To ensure the reliability and low latency of the system, we consider an asynchronous joint UL-DL scenario where in the UL stage, the smaller data size of the physical world images captured by multiple extended reality users (XUs) will be uploaded to the Metaverse Console (MC) to be construed and rendered. In the DL stage, the larger-size 3D virtual objects need to be transmitted back to the XUs. We design a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm structure, namely Asynchronous Actors Hybrid Critic (AAHC), to optimize the decisions pertaining to computation offloading and channel assignment in the UL stage and optimize the DL transmission power in the DL stage. Extensive experiments demonstrate that compared to proposed baselines, AAHC obtains better solutions with satisfactory training time.
On the Interpretability of Attention Networks
Authors: Lakshmi Narayan Pandey, Rahul Vashisht, Harish G. Ramaswamy
Date: 2022-12-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Image Captioning

Attention mechanisms form a core component of several successful deep learning architectures, and are based on one key idea: ''The output depends only on a small (but unknown) segment of the input.'' In several practical applications like image captioning and language translation, this is mostly true. In trained models with an attention mechanism, the outputs of an intermediate module that encodes the segment of input responsible for the output is often used as a way to peek into the `reasoning` of the network. We make such a notion more precise for a variant of the classification problem that we term selective dependence classification (SDC) when used with attention model architectures. Under such a setting, we demonstrate various error modes where an attention model can be accurate but fail to be interpretable, and show that such models do occur as a result of training. We illustrate various situations that can accentuate and mitigate this behaviour. Finally, we use our objective definition of interpretability for SDC tasks to evaluate a few attention model learning algorithms designed to encourage sparsity and demonstrate that these algorithms help improve interpretability.
On Machine Learning Knowledge Representation In The Form Of Partially Unitary Operator. Knowledge Generalizing Operator
Authors: Vladislav Gennadievich Malyshkin
Date: 2022-12-22 00:00:00
Tasks: Form

A new form of ML knowledge representation with high generalization power is developed and implemented numerically. Initial $\mathit{IN}$ attributes and $\mathit{OUT}$ class label are transformed into the corresponding Hilbert spaces by considering localized wavefunctions. A partially unitary operator optimally converting a state from $\mathit{IN}$ Hilbert space into $\mathit{OUT}$ Hilbert space is then built from an optimization problem of transferring maximal possible probability from $\mathit{IN}$ to $\mathit{OUT}$, this leads to the formulation of a new algebraic problem. Constructed Knowledge Generalizing Operator $\mathcal{U}$ can be considered as a $\mathit{IN}$ to $\mathit{OUT}$ quantum channel; it is a partially unitary rectangular matrix of the dimension $\mathrm{dim}(\mathit{OUT}) \times \mathrm{dim}(\mathit{IN})$ transforming operators as $A^{\mathit{OUT}}=\mathcal{U} A^{\mathit{IN}} \mathcal{U}^{\dagger}$. Whereas only operator $\mathcal{U}$ projections squared are observable $\left\langle\mathit{OUT}|\mathcal{U}|\mathit{IN}\right\rangle^2$ (probabilities), the fundamental equation is formulated for the operator $\mathcal{U}$ itself. This is the reason of high generalizing power of the approach; the situation is the same as for the Schr\"{o}dinger equation: we can only measure $\psi^2$, but the equation is written for $\psi$ itself.
An Analysis of Attention via the Lens of Exchangeability and Latent Variable Models
Authors: Yufeng Zhang, Boyi Liu, Qi Cai, Lingxiao Wang, Zhaoran Wang
Date: 2022-12-30 00:00:00

With the attention mechanism, transformers achieve significant empirical successes. Despite the intuitive understanding that transformers perform relational inference over long sequences to produce desirable representations, we lack a rigorous theory on how the attention mechanism achieves it. In particular, several intriguing questions remain open: (a) What makes a desirable representation? (b) How does the attention mechanism infer the desirable representation within the forward pass? (c) How does a pretraining procedure learn to infer the desirable representation through the backward pass? We observe that, as is the case in BERT and ViT, input tokens are often exchangeable since they already include positional encodings. The notion of exchangeability induces a latent variable model that is invariant to input sizes, which enables our theoretical analysis. - To answer (a) on representation, we establish the existence of a sufficient and minimal representation of input tokens. In particular, such a representation instantiates the posterior distribution of the latent variable given input tokens, which plays a central role in predicting output labels and solving downstream tasks. - To answer (b) on inference, we prove that attention with the desired parameter infers the latent posterior up to an approximation error, which is decreasing in input sizes. In detail, we quantify how attention approximates the conditional mean of the value given the key, which characterizes how it performs relational inference over long sequences. - To answer (c) on learning, we prove that both supervised and self-supervised objectives allow empirical risk minimization to learn the desired parameter up to a generalization error, which is independent of input sizes. Particularly, in the self-supervised setting, we identify a condition number that is pivotal to solving downstream tasks.
Quantum-Inspired Tensor Neural Networks for Option Pricing
Authors: Raj G. Patel, Chia-Wei Hsing, Serkan Sahin, Samuel Palmer, Saeed S. Jahromi, Shivam Sharma, Tomas Dominguez, Kris Tziritas, Christophe Michel, Vincent Porte, Mustafa Abid, Stephane Aubert, Pierre Castellani, Samuel Mugel, Roman Orus
Date: 2022-12-28 00:00:00

Recent advances in deep learning have enabled us to address the curse of dimensionality (COD) by solving problems in higher dimensions. A subset of such approaches of addressing the COD has led us to solving high-dimensional PDEs. This has resulted in opening doors to solving a variety of real-world problems ranging from mathematical finance to stochastic control for industrial applications. Although feasible, these deep learning methods are still constrained by training time and memory. Tackling these shortcomings, Tensor Neural Networks (TNN) demonstrate that they can provide significant parameter savings while attaining the same accuracy as compared to the classical Dense Neural Network (DNN). In addition, we also show how TNN can be trained faster than DNN for the same accuracy. Besides TNN, we also introduce Tensor Network Initializer (TNN Init), a weight initialization scheme that leads to faster convergence with smaller variance for an equivalent parameter count as compared to a DNN. We benchmark TNN and TNN Init by applying them to solve the parabolic PDE associated with the Heston model, which is widely used in financial pricing theory.
Falsification of Learning-Based Controllers through Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization
Authors: Zahra Shahrooei, Mykel J. Kochenderfer, Ali Baheri
Date: 2022-12-28 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Optimization

Simulation-based falsification is a practical testing method to increase confidence that the system will meet safety requirements. Because full-fidelity simulations can be computationally demanding, we investigate the use of simulators with different levels of fidelity. As a first step, we express the overall safety specification in terms of environmental parameters and structure this safety specification as an optimization problem. We propose a multi-fidelity falsification framework using Bayesian optimization, which is able to determine at which level of fidelity we should conduct a safety evaluation in addition to finding possible instances from the environment that cause the system to fail. This method allows us to automatically switch between inexpensive, inaccurate information from a low-fidelity simulator and expensive, accurate information from a high-fidelity simulator in a cost-effective way. Our experiments on various environments in simulation demonstrate that multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization has falsification performance comparable to single-fidelity Bayesian optimization but with much lower cost.
"Real Attackers Don't Compute Gradients": Bridging the Gap Between Adversarial ML Research and Practice
Authors: Giovanni Apruzzese, Hyrum S. Anderson, Savino Dambra, David Freeman, Fabio Pierazzi, Kevin A. Roundy
Date: 2022-12-29 00:00:00

Recent years have seen a proliferation of research on adversarial machine learning. Numerous papers demonstrate powerful algorithmic attacks against a wide variety of machine learning (ML) models, and numerous other papers propose defenses that can withstand most attacks. However, abundant real-world evidence suggests that actual attackers use simple tactics to subvert ML-driven systems, and as a result security practitioners have not prioritized adversarial ML defenses. Motivated by the apparent gap between researchers and practitioners, this position paper aims to bridge the two domains. We first present three real-world case studies from which we can glean practical insights unknown or neglected in research. Next we analyze all adversarial ML papers recently published in top security conferences, highlighting positive trends and blind spots. Finally, we state positions on precise and cost-driven threat modeling, collaboration between industry and academia, and reproducible research. We believe that our positions, if adopted, will increase the real-world impact of future endeavours in adversarial ML, bringing both researchers and practitioners closer to their shared goal of improving the security of ML systems.
Constant Approximation for Normalized Modularity and Associations Clustering
Authors: Jakub Łącki, Vahab Mirrokni, Christian Sohler
Date: 2022-12-29 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Graph Clustering

We study the problem of graph clustering under a broad class of objectives in which the quality of a cluster is defined based on the ratio between the number of edges in the cluster, and the total weight of vertices in the cluster. We show that our definition is closely related to popular clustering measures, namely normalized associations, which is a dual of the normalized cut objective, and normalized modularity. We give a linear time constant-approximate algorithm for our objective, which implies the first constant-factor approximation algorithms for normalized modularity and normalized associations.
On Learning the Structure of Clusters in Graphs
Authors: Peter Macgregor
Date: 2022-12-29 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Graph Clustering, image-classification, Image Classification

Graph clustering is a fundamental problem in unsupervised learning, with numerous applications in computer science and in analysing real-world data. In many real-world applications, we find that the clusters have a significant high-level structure. This is often overlooked in the design and analysis of graph clustering algorithms which make strong simplifying assumptions about the structure of the graph. This thesis addresses the natural question of whether the structure of clusters can be learned efficiently and describes four new algorithmic results for learning such structure in graphs and hypergraphs. All of the presented theoretical results are extensively evaluated on both synthetic and real-word datasets of different domains, including image classification and segmentation, migration networks, co-authorship networks, and natural language processing. These experimental results demonstrate that the newly developed algorithms are practical, effective, and immediately applicable for learning the structure of clusters in real-world data.
Characterization of the Global Bias Problem in Aerial Federated Learning
Authors: Ruslan Zhagypar, Nour Kouzayha, Hesham ElSawy, Hayssam Dahrouj, Tareq Y. Al-Naffouri
Date: 2022-12-29 00:00:00
Tasks: Federated Learning

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) mobility enables flexible and customized federated learning (FL) at the network edge. However, the underlying uncertainties in the aerial-terrestrial wireless channel may lead to a biased FL model. In particular, the distribution of the global model and the aggregation of the local updates within the FL learning rounds at the UAVs are governed by the reliability of the wireless channel. This creates an undesirable bias towards the training data of ground devices with better channel conditions, and vice versa. This paper characterizes the global bias problem of aerial FL in large-scale UAV networks. To this end, the paper proposes a channel-aware distribution and aggregation scheme to enforce equal contribution from all devices in the FL training as a means to resolve the global bias problem. We demonstrate the convergence of the proposed method by experimenting with the MNIST dataset and show its superiority compared to existing methods. The obtained results enable system parameter tuning to relieve the impact of the aerial channel deficiency on the FL convergence rate.