pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Electricity Demand Forecasting with Hybrid Statistical and Machine Learning Algorithms: Case Study of Ukraine
Authors: Tatiana Gonzalez Grandon, Johannes Schwenzer, Thomas Steens, Julia Breuing
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Demand Forecasting, regression, Time Series

This article presents a novel hybrid approach using statistics and machine learning to forecast the national demand of electricity. As investment and operation of future energy systems require long-term electricity demand forecasts with hourly resolution, our mathematical model fills a gap in energy forecasting. The proposed methodology was constructed using hourly data from Ukraine's electricity consumption ranging from 2013 to 2020. To this end, we analysed the underlying structure of the hourly, daily and yearly time series of electricity consumption. The long-term yearly trend is evaluated using macroeconomic regression analysis. The mid-term model integrates temperature and calendar regressors to describe the underlying structure, and combines ARIMA and LSTM ``black-box'' pattern-based approaches to describe the error term. The short-term model captures the hourly seasonality through calendar regressors and multiple ARMA models for the residual. Results show that the best forecasting model is composed by combining multiple regression models and a LSTM hybrid model for residual prediction. Our hybrid model is very effective at forecasting long-term electricity consumption on an hourly resolution. In two years of out-of-sample forecasts with 17520 timesteps, it is shown to be within 96.83 \% accuracy.
Curriculum-Based Imitation of Versatile Skills
Authors: Maximilian Xiling Li, Onur Celik, Philipp Becker, Denis Blessing, Rudolf Lioutikov, Gerhard Neumann
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Imitation Learning

Learning skills by imitation is a promising concept for the intuitive teaching of robots. A common way to learn such skills is to learn a parametric model by maximizing the likelihood given the demonstrations. Yet, human demonstrations are often multi-modal, i.e., the same task is solved in multiple ways which is a major challenge for most imitation learning methods that are based on such a maximum likelihood (ML) objective. The ML objective forces the model to cover all data, it prevents specialization in the context space and can cause mode-averaging in the behavior space, leading to suboptimal or potentially catastrophic behavior. Here, we alleviate those issues by introducing a curriculum using a weight for each data point, allowing the model to specialize on data it can represent while incentivizing it to cover as much data as possible by an entropy bonus. We extend our algorithm to a Mixture of (linear) Experts (MoE) such that the single components can specialize on local context regions, while the MoE covers all data points. We evaluate our approach in complex simulated and real robot control tasks and show it learns from versatile human demonstrations and significantly outperforms current SOTA methods. A reference implementation can be found at https://github.com/intuitive-robots/ml-cur
Modeling and design of heterogeneous hierarchical bioinspired spider web structures using generative deep learning and additive manufacturing
Authors: Wei Lu, Nic A. Lee, Markus J. Buehler
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: graph construction

Spider webs are incredible biological structures, comprising thin but strong silk filament and arranged into complex hierarchical architectures with striking mechanical properties (e.g., lightweight but high strength, achieving diverse mechanical responses). While simple 2D orb webs can easily be mimicked, the modeling and synthesis of 3D-based web structures remain challenging, partly due to the rich set of design features. Here we provide a detailed analysis of the heterogenous graph structures of spider webs, and use deep learning as a way to model and then synthesize artificial, bio-inspired 3D web structures. The generative AI models are conditioned based on key geometric parameters (including average edge length, number of nodes, average node degree, and others). To identify graph construction principles, we use inductive representation sampling of large experimentally determined spider web graphs, to yield a dataset that is used to train three conditional generative models: 1) An analog diffusion model inspired by nonequilibrium thermodynamics, with sparse neighbor representation, 2) a discrete diffusion model with full neighbor representation, and 3) an autoregressive transformer architecture with full neighbor representation. All three models are scalable, produce complex, de novo bio-inspired spider web mimics, and successfully construct graphs that meet the design objectives. We further propose algorithm that assembles web samples produced by the generative models into larger-scale structures based on a series of geometric design targets, including helical and parametric shapes, mimicking, and extending natural design principles towards integration with diverging engineering objectives. Several webs are manufactured using 3D printing and tested to assess mechanical properties.
RecUP-FL: Reconciling Utility and Privacy in Federated Learning via User-configurable Privacy Defense
Authors: Yue Cui, Syed Irfan Ali Meerza, Zhuohang Li, Luyang Liu, Jiaxin Zhang, Jian Liu
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Adversarial Attack, Attribute, Federated Learning, Inference Attack, Meta-Learning, Reconstruction Attack

Federated learning (FL) provides a variety of privacy advantages by allowing clients to collaboratively train a model without sharing their private data. However, recent studies have shown that private information can still be leaked through shared gradients. To further minimize the risk of privacy leakage, existing defenses usually require clients to locally modify their gradients (e.g., differential privacy) prior to sharing with the server. While these approaches are effective in certain cases, they regard the entire data as a single entity to protect, which usually comes at a large cost in model utility. In this paper, we seek to reconcile utility and privacy in FL by proposing a user-configurable privacy defense, RecUP-FL, that can better focus on the user-specified sensitive attributes while obtaining significant improvements in utility over traditional defenses. Moreover, we observe that existing inference attacks often rely on a machine learning model to extract the private information (e.g., attributes). We thus formulate such a privacy defense as an adversarial learning problem, where RecUP-FL generates slight perturbations that can be added to the gradients before sharing to fool adversary models. To improve the transferability to un-queryable black-box adversary models, inspired by the idea of meta-learning, RecUP-FL forms a model zoo containing a set of substitute models and iteratively alternates between simulations of the white-box and the black-box adversarial attack scenarios to generate perturbations. Extensive experiments on four datasets under various adversarial settings (both attribute inference attack and data reconstruction attack) show that RecUP-FL can meet user-specified privacy constraints over the sensitive attributes while significantly improving the model utility compared with state-of-the-art privacy defenses.
Lecture Notes: Neural Network Architectures
Authors: Evelyn Herberg
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00

These lecture notes provide an overview of Neural Network architectures from a mathematical point of view. Especially, Machine Learning with Neural Networks is seen as an optimization problem. Covered are an introduction to Neural Networks and the following architectures: Feedforward Neural Network, Convolutional Neural Network, ResNet, and Recurrent Neural Network.
Online Spatio-Temporal Learning with Target Projection
Authors: Thomas Ortner, Lorenzo Pes, Joris Gentinetta, Charlotte Frenkel, Angeliki Pantazi
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00

Recurrent neural networks trained with the backpropagation through time (BPTT) algorithm have led to astounding successes in various temporal tasks. However, BPTT introduces severe limitations, such as the requirement to propagate information backwards through time, the weight symmetry requirement, as well as update-locking in space and time. These problems become roadblocks for AI systems where online training capabilities are vital. Recently, researchers have developed biologically-inspired training algorithms, addressing a subset of those problems. In this work, we propose a novel learning algorithm called online spatio-temporal learning with target projection (OSTTP) that resolves all aforementioned issues of BPTT. In particular, OSTTP equips a network with the capability to simultaneously process and learn from new incoming data, alleviating the weight symmetry and update-locking problems. We evaluate OSTTP on two temporal tasks, showcasing competitive performance compared to BPTT. Moreover, we present a proof-of-concept implementation of OSTTP on a memristive neuromorphic hardware system, demonstrating its versatility and applicability to resource-constrained AI devices.
Towards systematic intraday news screening: a liquidity-focused approach
Authors: Jianfei Zhang, Mathieu Rosenbaum
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Articles, Sentiment Analysis, Sentiment Classification

News can convey bearish or bullish views on financial assets. Institutional investors need to evaluate automatically the implied news sentiment based on textual data. Given the huge amount of news articles published each day, most of which are neutral, we present a systematic news screening method to identify the ``true'' impactful ones, aiming for more effective development of news sentiment learning methods. Based on several liquidity-driven variables, including volatility, turnover, bid-ask spread, and book size, we associate each 5-min time bin to one of two specific liquidity modes. One represents the ``calm'' state at which the market stays for most of the time and the other, featured with relatively higher levels of volatility and trading volume, describes the regime driven by some exogenous events. Then we focus on the moments where the liquidity mode switches from the former to the latter and consider the news articles published nearby impactful. We apply naive Bayes on these filtered samples for news sentiment classification as an illustrative example. We show that the screened dataset leads to more effective feature capturing and thus superior performance on short-term asset return prediction compared to the original dataset.
Feudal Graph Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Tommaso Marzi, Arshjot Khehra, Andrea Cini, Cesare Alippi
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Graph Clustering, MuJoCo, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL), Transfer Learning

Graph-based representations and message-passing modular policies constitute prominent approaches to tackling composable control problems in reinforcement learning (RL). However, as shown by recent graph deep learning literature, such local message-passing operators can create information bottlenecks and hinder global coordination. The issue becomes more serious in tasks requiring high-level planning. In this work, we propose a novel methodology, named Feudal Graph Reinforcement Learning (FGRL), that addresses such challenges by relying on hierarchical RL and a pyramidal message-passing architecture. In particular, FGRL defines a hierarchy of policies where high-level commands are propagated from the top of the hierarchy down through a layered graph structure. The bottom layers mimic the morphology of the physical system, while the upper layers correspond to higher-order sub-modules. The resulting agents are then characterized by a committee of policies where actions at a certain level set goals for the level below, thus implementing a hierarchical decision-making structure that can naturally implement task decomposition. We evaluate the proposed framework on a graph clustering problem and MuJoCo locomotion tasks; simulation results show that FGRL compares favorably against relevant baselines. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis of the command propagation mechanism provides evidence that the introduced message-passing scheme favors learning hierarchical decision-making policies.
Actually Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes
Authors: Harry Jake Cunningham, Daniel Augusto de Souza, So Takao, Mark van der Wilk, Marc Peter Deisenroth
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Gaussian Processes

Gaussian processes (GPs) are typically criticised for their unfavourable scaling in both computational and memory requirements. For large datasets, sparse GPs reduce these demands by conditioning on a small set of inducing variables designed to summarise the data. In practice however, for large datasets requiring many inducing variables, such as low-lengthscale spatial data, even sparse GPs can become computationally expensive, limited by the number of inducing variables one can use. In this work, we propose a new class of inter-domain variational GP, constructed by projecting a GP onto a set of compactly supported B-spline basis functions. The key benefit of our approach is that the compact support of the B-spline basis functions admits the use of sparse linear algebra to significantly speed up matrix operations and drastically reduce the memory footprint. This allows us to very efficiently model fast-varying spatial phenomena with tens of thousands of inducing variables, where previous approaches failed.
A Self-attention Knowledge Domain Adaptation Network for Commercial Lithium-ion Batteries State-of-health Estimation under Shallow Cycles
Authors: Xin Chen, Yuwen Qin, Weidong Zhao, Qiming Yang, Ningbo Cai, Kai Wu
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Domain Adaptation, Transfer Learning

Accurate state-of-health (SOH) estimation is critical to guarantee the safety, efficiency and reliability of battery-powered applications. Most SOH estimation methods focus on the 0-100\% full state-of-charge (SOC) range that has similar distributions. However, the batteries in real-world applications usually work in the partial SOC range under shallow-cycle conditions and follow different degradation profiles with no labeled data available, thus making SOH estimation challenging. To estimate shallow-cycle battery SOH, a novel unsupervised deep transfer learning method is proposed to bridge different domains using self-attention distillation module and multi-kernel maximum mean discrepancy technique. The proposed method automatically extracts domain-variant features from charge curves to transfer knowledge from the large-scale labeled full cycles to the unlabeled shallow cycles. The CALCE and SNL battery datasets are employed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method to estimate the battery SOH for different SOC ranges, temperatures, and discharge rates. The proposed method achieves a root-mean-square error within 2\% and outperforms other transfer learning methods for different SOC ranges. When applied to batteries with different operating conditions and from different manufacturers, the proposed method still exhibits superior SOH estimation performance. The proposed method is the first attempt at accurately estimating battery SOH under shallow-cycle conditions without needing a full-cycle characteristic test.
TodyNet: Temporal Dynamic Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time Series Classification
Authors: Huaiyuan Liu, Xianzhang Liu, Donghua Yang, Zhiyu Liang, Hongzhi Wang, Yong Cui, Jun Gu
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, Deep Learning, Graph Learning, Graph Neural Network, Time Series, Time Series Classification

Multivariate time series classification (MTSC) is an important data mining task, which can be effectively solved by popular deep learning technology. Unfortunately, the existing deep learning-based methods neglect the hidden dependencies in different dimensions and also rarely consider the unique dynamic features of time series, which lack sufficient feature extraction capability to obtain satisfactory classification accuracy. To address this problem, we propose a novel temporal dynamic graph neural network (TodyNet) that can extract hidden spatio-temporal dependencies without undefined graph structure. It enables information flow among isolated but implicit interdependent variables and captures the associations between different time slots by dynamic graph mechanism, which further improves the classification performance of the model. Meanwhile, the hierarchical representations of graphs cannot be learned due to the limitation of GNNs. Thus, we also design a temporal graph pooling layer to obtain a global graph-level representation for graph learning with learnable temporal parameters. The dynamic graph, graph information propagation, and temporal convolution are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. The experiments on 26 UEA benchmark datasets illustrate that the proposed TodyNet outperforms existing deep learning-based methods in the MTSC tasks.
A Tale of Sampling and Estimation in Discounted Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Alberto Maria Metelli, Mirco Mutti, Marcello Restelli
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning

The most relevant problems in discounted reinforcement learning involve estimating the mean of a function under the stationary distribution of a Markov reward process, such as the expected return in policy evaluation, or the policy gradient in policy optimization. In practice, these estimates are produced through a finite-horizon episodic sampling, which neglects the mixing properties of the Markov process. It is mostly unclear how this mismatch between the practical and the ideal setting affects the estimation, and the literature lacks a formal study on the pitfalls of episodic sampling, and how to do it optimally. In this paper, we present a minimax lower bound on the discounted mean estimation problem that explicitly connects the estimation error with the mixing properties of the Markov process and the discount factor. Then, we provide a statistical analysis on a set of notable estimators and the corresponding sampling procedures, which includes the finite-horizon estimators often used in practice. Crucially, we show that estimating the mean by directly sampling from the discounted kernel of the Markov process brings compelling statistical properties w.r.t. the alternative estimators, as it matches the lower bound without requiring a careful tuning of the episode horizon.
Hyperbolic Geometric Graph Representation Learning for Hierarchy-imbalance Node Classification
Authors: Xingcheng Fu, Yuecen Wei, Qingyun Sun, Haonan Yuan, Jia Wu, Hao Peng, JianXin Li
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Graph Representation Learning, Node Classification, Representation Learning

Learning unbiased node representations for imbalanced samples in the graph has become a more remarkable and important topic. For the graph, a significant challenge is that the topological properties of the nodes (e.g., locations, roles) are unbalanced (topology-imbalance), other than the number of training labeled nodes (quantity-imbalance). Existing studies on topology-imbalance focus on the location or the local neighborhood structure of nodes, ignoring the global underlying hierarchical properties of the graph, i.e., hierarchy. In the real-world scenario, the hierarchical structure of graph data reveals important topological properties of graphs and is relevant to a wide range of applications. We find that training labeled nodes with different hierarchical properties have a significant impact on the node classification tasks and confirm it in our experiments. It is well known that hyperbolic geometry has a unique advantage in representing the hierarchical structure of graphs. Therefore, we attempt to explore the hierarchy-imbalance issue for node classification of graph neural networks with a novelty perspective of hyperbolic geometry, including its characteristics and causes. Then, we propose a novel hyperbolic geometric hierarchy-imbalance learning framework, named HyperIMBA, to alleviate the hierarchy-imbalance issue caused by uneven hierarchy-levels and cross-hierarchy connectivity patterns of labeled nodes.Extensive experimental results demonstrate the superior effectiveness of HyperIMBA for hierarchy-imbalance node classification tasks.
A Hybrid Approach combining ANN-based and Conventional Demapping in Communication for Efficient FPGA-Implementation
Authors: Jonas Ney, Bilal Hammoud, Norbert Wehn
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00

In communication systems, Autoencoder (AE) refers to the concept of replacing parts of the transmitter and receiver by artificial neural networks (ANNs) to train the system end-to-end over a channel model. This approach aims to improve communication performance, especially for varying channel conditions, with the cost of high computational complexity for training and inference. Field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) have been shown to be a suitable platform for energy-efficient ANN implementation. However, the high number of operations and the large model size of ANNs limit the performance on resource-constrained devices, which is critical for low latency and high-throughput communication systems. To tackle his challenge, we propose a novel approach for efficient ANN-based remapping on FPGAs, which combines the adaptability of the AE with the efficiency of conventional demapping algorithms. After adaption to channel conditions, the channel characteristics, implicitly learned by the ANN, are extracted to enable the use of optimized conventional demapping algorithms for inference. We validate the hardware efficiency of our approach by providing FPGA implementation results and by comparing the communication performance to that of conventional systems. Our work opens a door for the practical application of ANN-based communication algorithms on FPGAs.
Soft Dynamic Time Warping for Multi-Pitch Estimation and Beyond
Authors: Michael Krause, Christof Weiß, Meinard Müller
Date: 2023-04-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Dynamic Time Warping, Information Retrieval, Music Information Retrieval, Retrieval

Many tasks in music information retrieval (MIR) involve weakly aligned data, where exact temporal correspondences are unknown. The connectionist temporal classification (CTC) loss is a standard technique to learn feature representations based on weakly aligned training data. However, CTC is limited to discrete-valued target sequences and can be difficult to extend to multi-label problems. In this article, we show how soft dynamic time warping (SoftDTW), a differentiable variant of classical DTW, can be used as an alternative to CTC. Using multi-pitch estimation as an example scenario, we show that SoftDTW yields results on par with a state-of-the-art multi-label extension of CTC. In addition to being more elegant in terms of its algorithmic formulation, SoftDTW naturally extends to real-valued target sequences.