pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Adaptive Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity (Net-)Load
Authors: Joseph de Vilmarest, Jethro Browell, Matteo Fasiolo, Yannig Goude, Olivier Wintenberger
Date: 2023-01-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Load Forecasting, Uncertainty Quantification

Electricity load forecasting is a necessary capability for power system operators and electricity market participants. The proliferation of local generation, demand response, and electrification of heat and transport are changing the fundamental drivers of electricity load and increasing the complexity of load modelling and forecasting. We address this challenge in two ways. First, our setting is adaptive; our models take into account the most recent observations available, yielding a forecasting strategy able to automatically respond to changes in the underlying process. Second, we consider probabilistic rather than point forecasting; indeed, uncertainty quantification is required to operate electricity systems efficiently and reliably. Our methodology relies on the Kalman filter, previously used successfully for adaptive point load forecasting. The probabilistic forecasts are obtained by quantile regressions on the residuals of the point forecasting model. We achieve adaptive quantile regressions using the online gradient descent; we avoid the choice of the gradient step size considering multiple learning rates and aggregation of experts. We apply the method to two data sets: the regional net-load in Great Britain and the demand of seven large cities in the United States. Adaptive procedures improve forecast performance substantially in both use cases for both point and probabilistic forecasting.
Forecasting the 2016-2017 Central Apennines Earthquake Sequence with a Neural Point Process
Authors: Samuel Stockman, Daniel J. Lawson, Maximilian J. Werner
Date: 2023-01-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Point Processes

Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point process models using neural networks to improve upon existing parametric models. We investigate whether these flexible point process models can be applied to short-term seismicity forecasting by extending an existing temporal neural model to the magnitude domain and we show how this model can forecast earthquakes above a target magnitude threshold. We first demonstrate that the neural model can fit synthetic ETAS data, however, requiring less computational time because it is not dependent on the full history of the sequence. By artificially emulating short-term aftershock incompleteness in the synthetic dataset, we find that the neural model outperforms ETAS. Using a new enhanced catalog from the 2016-2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence, we investigate the predictive skill of ETAS and the neural model with respect to the lowest input magnitude. Constructing multiple forecasting experiments using the Visso, Norcia and Campotosto earthquakes to partition training and testing data, we target M3+ events. We find both models perform similarly at previously explored thresholds (e.g., above M3), but lowering the threshold to M1.2 reduces the performance of ETAS unlike the neural model. We argue that some of these gains are due to the neural model's ability to handle incomplete data. The robustness to missing data and speed to train the neural model present it as an encouraging competitor in earthquake forecasting.
Improved Rate of First Order Algorithms for Entropic Optimal Transport
Authors: Yiling Luo, Yiling Xie, Xiaoming Huo
Date: 2023-01-23 00:00:00

This paper improves the state-of-the-art rate of a first-order algorithm for solving entropy regularized optimal transport. The resulting rate for approximating the optimal transport (OT) has been improved from $\widetilde{{O}}({n^{2.5}}/{\epsilon})$ to $\widetilde{{O}}({n^2}/{\epsilon})$, where $n$ is the problem size and $\epsilon$ is the accuracy level. In particular, we propose an accelerated primal-dual stochastic mirror descent algorithm with variance reduction. Such special design helps us improve the rate compared to other accelerated primal-dual algorithms. We further propose a batch version of our stochastic algorithm, which improves the computational performance through parallel computing. To compare, we prove that the computational complexity of the Stochastic Sinkhorn algorithm is $\widetilde{{O}}({n^2}/{\epsilon^2})$, which is slower than our accelerated primal-dual stochastic mirror algorithm. Experiments are done using synthetic and real data, and the results match our theoretical rates. Our algorithm may inspire more research to develop accelerated primal-dual algorithms that have rate $\widetilde{{O}}({n^2}/{\epsilon})$ for solving OT.
Does Search Engine Optimization come along with high-quality content? A comparison between optimized and non-optimized health-related web pages
Authors: Sebastian Schultheiß, Helena Häußler, Dirk Lewandowski
Date: 2023-01-24 00:00:00

Searching for medical information is both a common and important activity since it influences decisions people make about their healthcare. Using search engine optimization (SEO), content producers seek to increase the visibility of their content. SEO is more likely to be practiced by commercially motivated content producers such as pharmaceutical companies than by non-commercial providers such as governmental bodies. In this study, we ask whether content quality correlates with the presence or absence of SEO measures on a web page. We conducted a user study in which N = 61 participants comprising laypeople as well as experts in health information assessment evaluated health-related web pages classified as either optimized or non-optimized. The subjects rated the expertise of non-optimized web pages as higher than the expertise of optimized pages, justifying their appraisal by the more competent and reputable appearance of non-optimized pages. In addition, comments about the website operators of the non-optimized pages were exclusively positive, while optimized pages tended to receive positive as well as negative assessments. We found no differences between the ratings of laypeople and experts. Since non-optimized, but high-quality content may be outranked by optimized content of lower quality, trusted sources should be prioritized in rankings.
How search engine marketing influences user knowledge gain: Development and empirical testing of an information search behavior model
Authors: Sebastian Schultheiß
Date: 2023-01-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Marketing

People use search engines to find answers to questions related to their health, finances, or other socially relevant issues. However, most users are unaware that search results are considerably influenced by search engine marketing (SEM). SEM measures are driven by commercial, political, or other motives. Due to these motivations, two questions arise: What information quality is mediated through SEM? And how is collecting documents of different quality affecting user knowledge gain? Both questions are not considered by existing models of information behavior. Hence, the doctoral research project described in this paper aims to develop and empirically test an information search behavior model on the influences of SEM on user knowledge gain and thereby contribute to the search as learning body of research.
Injecting the BM25 Score as Text Improves BERT-Based Re-rankers
Authors: Arian Askari, Amin Abolghasemi, Gabriella Pasi, Wessel Kraaij, Suzan Verberne
Date: 2023-01-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Retrieval

In this paper we propose a novel approach for combining first-stage lexical retrieval models and Transformer-based re-rankers: we inject the relevance score of the lexical model as a token in the middle of the input of the cross-encoder re-ranker. It was shown in prior work that interpolation between the relevance score of lexical and BERT-based re-rankers may not consistently result in higher effectiveness. Our idea is motivated by the finding that BERT models can capture numeric information. We compare several representations of the BM25 score and inject them as text in the input of four different cross-encoders. We additionally analyze the effect for different query types, and investigate the effectiveness of our method for capturing exact matching relevance. Evaluation on the MSMARCO Passage collection and the TREC DL collections shows that the proposed method significantly improves over all cross-encoder re-rankers as well as the common interpolation methods. We show that the improvement is consistent for all query types. We also find an improvement in exact matching capabilities over both BM25 and the cross-encoders. Our findings indicate that cross-encoder re-rankers can efficiently be improved without additional computational burden and extra steps in the pipeline by explicitly adding the output of the first-stage ranker to the model input, and this effect is robust for different models and query types.
Macroeconomic forecasting and sovereign risk assessment using deep learning techniques
Authors: Anastasios Petropoulos, Vassilis Siakoulis, Konstantinos P. Panousis, Loukas Papadoulas, Sotirios Chatzis
Date: 2023-01-24 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Learning, Econometrics

In this study, we propose a novel approach of nowcasting and forecasting the macroeconomic status of a country using deep learning techniques. We focus particularly on the US economy but the methodology can be applied also to other economies. Specifically US economy has suffered a severe recession from 2008 to 2010 which practically breaks out conventional econometrics model attempts. Deep learning has the advantage that it models all macro variables simultaneously taking into account all interdependencies among them and detecting non-linear patterns which cannot be easily addressed under a univariate modelling framework. Our empirical results indicate that the deep learning methods have a superior out-of-sample performance when compared to traditional econometric techniques such as Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Therefore our results provide a concise view of a more robust method for assessing sovereign risk which is a crucial component in investment and monetary decisions.
Predicting Socio-Economic Well-being Using Mobile Apps Data: A Case Study of France
Authors: Rahul Goel, Angelo Furno, Rajesh Sharma
Date: 2023-01-15 00:00:00

Socio-economic indicators provide context for assessing a country's overall condition. These indicators contain information about education, gender, poverty, employment, and other factors. Therefore, reliable and accurate information is critical for social research and government policing. Most data sources available today, such as censuses, have sparse population coverage or are updated infrequently. Nonetheless, alternative data sources, such as call data records (CDR) and mobile app usage, can serve as cost-effective and up-to-date sources for identifying socio-economic indicators. This work investigates mobile app data to predict socio-economic features. We present a large-scale study using data that captures the traffic of thousands of mobile applications by approximately 30 million users distributed over 550,000 km square and served by over 25,000 base stations. The dataset covers the whole France territory and spans more than 2.5 months, starting from 16th March 2019 to 6th June 2019. Using the app usage patterns, our best model can estimate socio-economic indicators (attaining an R-squared score upto 0.66). Furthermore, using models' explainability, we discover that mobile app usage patterns have the potential to reveal socio-economic disparities in IRIS. Insights of this study provide several avenues for future interventions, including user temporal network analysis to understand evolving network patterns and exploration of alternative data sources.
Fair and skill-diverse student group formation via constrained k-way graph partitioning
Authors: Alexander Jenkins, Imad Jaimoukha, Ljubisa Stankovic, Danilo Mandic
Date: 2023-01-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Attribute, Dimensionality Reduction, Diversity, Fairness, graph partitioning

Forming the right combination of students in a group promises to enable a powerful and effective environment for learning and collaboration. However, defining a group of students is a complex task which has to satisfy multiple constraints. This work introduces an unsupervised algorithm for fair and skill-diverse student group formation. This is achieved by taking account of student course marks and sensitive attributes provided by the education office. The skill sets of students are determined using unsupervised dimensionality reduction of course mark data via the Laplacian eigenmap. The problem is formulated as a constrained graph partitioning problem, whereby the diversity of skill sets in each group are maximised, group sizes are upper and lower bounded according to available resources, and `balance' of a sensitive attribute is lower bounded to enforce fairness in group formation. This optimisation problem is solved using integer programming and its effectiveness is demonstrated on a dataset of student course marks from Imperial College London.
From Robots to Books: An Introduction to Smart Applications of AI in Education (AIEd)
Authors: Shubham Ojha, Aditya Narendra, Siddharth Mohapatra, Ipsit Misra
Date: 2023-01-11 00:00:00

The world around us has undergone a radical transformation due to rapid technological advancement in recent decades. The industry of the future generation is evolving, and artificial intelligence is the following change in the making popularly known as Industry 4.0. Indeed, experts predict that artificial intelligence(AI) will be the main force behind the following significant virtual shift in the way we stay, converse, study, live, communicate and conduct business. All facets of our social connection are being transformed by this growing technology. One of the newest areas of educational technology is Artificial Intelligence in the field of Education(AIEd).This study emphasizes the different applications of artificial intelligence in education from both an industrial and academic standpoint. It highlights the most recent contextualized learning novel transformative evaluations and advancements in sophisticated tutoring systems. It analyses the AIEd's ethical component and the influence of the transition on people, particularly students and instructors as well. Finally, this article touches on AIEd's potential future research and practices. The goal of this study is to introduce the present-day applications to its intended audience.
The Role of Digital Agriculture in Transforming Rural Areas into Smart Villages
Authors: Mohammad Raziuddin Chowdhury, Md Sakib Ullah Sourav, Rejwan Bin Sulaiman
Date: 2023-01-07 00:00:00

From the perspective of any nation, rural areas generally present a comparable set of problems, such as a lack of proper health care, education, living conditions, wages, and market opportunities. Some nations have created and developed the concept of smart villages during the previous few decades, which effectively addresses these issues. The landscape of traditional agriculture has been radically altered by digital agriculture, which has also had a positive economic impact on farmers and those who live in rural regions by ensuring an increase in agricultural production. We explored current issues in rural areas, and the consequences of smart village applications, and then illustrate our concept of smart village from recent examples of how emerging digital agriculture trends contribute to improving agricultural production in this chapter.
Fiduciary Responsibility: Facilitating Public Trust in Automated Decision Making
Authors: Shannon B. Harper, Eric S. Weber
Date: 2023-01-06 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making

Automated decision-making systems are being increasingly deployed and affect the public in a multitude of positive and negative ways. Governmental and private institutions use these systems to process information according to certain human-devised rules in order to address social problems or organizational challenges. Both research and real-world experience indicate that the public lacks trust in automated decision-making systems and the institutions that deploy them. The recreancy theorem argues that the public is more likely to trust and support decisions made or influenced by automated decision-making systems if the institutions that administer them meet their fiduciary responsibility. However, often the public is never informed of how these systems operate and resultant institutional decisions are made. A ``black box'' effect of automated decision-making systems reduces the public's perceptions of integrity and trustworthiness. The result is that the public loses the capacity to identify, challenge, and rectify unfairness or the costs associated with the loss of public goods or benefits. The current position paper defines and explains the role of fiduciary responsibility within an automated decision-making system. We formulate an automated decision-making system as a data science lifecycle (DSL) and examine the implications of fiduciary responsibility within the context of the DSL. Fiduciary responsibility within DSLs provides a methodology for addressing the public's lack of trust in automated decision-making systems and the institutions that employ them to make decisions affecting the public. We posit that fiduciary responsibility manifests in several contexts of a DSL, each of which requires its own mitigation of sources of mistrust. To instantiate fiduciary responsibility, a Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) predictive policing case study is examined.
Discovering Transition Pathways Towards Coviability with Machine Learning
Authors: Laure Berti-Equille, Rafael L. G. Raimundo
Date: 2023-01-06 00:00:00

Coviability refers to the multiple socio-ecological arrangements and governance structures under which humans and nature can coexist in functional, fair, and persistent ways. Transitioning to a coviable state in environmentally degraded and socially vulnerable territories is challenging. This paper presents an ongoing French-Brazilian joint research project combining machine learning, agroecology, and social sciences to discover coviability pathways that can be adopted and implemented by local populations in the North-East region of Brazil.
Disease X vaccine production and supply chains: risk assessing healthcare systems operating with artificial intelligence and industry 4.0
Authors: Petar Radanliev, David De Roure
Date: 2023-01-04 00:00:00

A set of six algorithmic solutions is presented for resolving vaccine production and supply chain bottlenecks. A different set of algorithmic solutions is presented for forecasting risks during a Disease X event.
Navigating the reporting guideline environment for computational pathology: A review
Authors: Clare McGenity, Darren Treanor
Date: 2023-01-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Articles

The application of new artificial intelligence (AI) discoveries is transforming healthcare research. However, the standards of reporting are variable in this still evolving field, leading to potential research waste. The aim of this work is to highlight resources and reporting guidelines available to researchers working in computational pathology. The EQUATOR Network library of reporting guidelines and extensions was systematically searched up to August 2022 to identify applicable resources. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were used and guidance was screened for utility at different stages of research and for a range of study types. Items were compiled to create a summary for easy identification of useful resources and guidance. Over 70 published resources applicable to pathology AI research were identified. Guidelines were divided into key categories, reflecting current study types and target areas for AI research: Literature & Research Priorities, Discovery, Clinical Trial, Implementation and Post-Implementation & Guidelines. Guidelines useful at multiple stages of research and those currently in development were also highlighted. Summary tables with links to guidelines for these groups were developed, to assist those working in cancer AI research with complete reporting of research. Issues with replication and research waste are recognised problems in AI research. Reporting guidelines can be used as templates to ensure the essential information needed to replicate research is included within journal articles and abstracts. Reporting guidelines are available and useful for many study types, but greater awareness is needed to encourage researchers to utilise them and for journals to adopt them. This review and summary of resources highlights guidance to researchers, aiming to improve completeness of reporting.
Super forecasting the technological singularity risks from artificial intelligence
Authors: Petar Radanliev, David De Roure, Carsten Maple, Uchenna Ani
Date: 2022-12-28 00:00:00

The article forecasts emerging cyber-risks from the integration of AI in cybersecurity.
CovidRhythm: A Deep Learning Model for Passive Prediction of Covid-19 using Biobehavioral Rhythms Derived from Wearable Physiological Data
Authors: Atifa Sarwar, Emmanuel O. Agu
Date: 2023-01-12 00:00:00
Tasks: Avg, Rhythm, Specificity

To investigate whether a deep learning model can detect Covid-19 from disruptions in the human body's physiological (heart rate) and rest-activity rhythms (rhythmic dysregulation) caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We propose CovidRhythm, a novel Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) Network with Multi-Head Self-Attention (MHSA) that combines sensor and rhythmic features extracted from heart rate and activity (steps) data gathered passively using consumer-grade smart wearable to predict Covid-19. A total of 39 features were extracted (standard deviation, mean, min/max/avg length of sedentary and active bouts) from wearable sensor data. Biobehavioral rhythms were modeled using nine parameters (mesor, amplitude, acrophase, and intra-daily variability). These features were then input to CovidRhythm for predicting Covid-19 in the incubation phase (one day before biological symptoms manifest). A combination of sensor and biobehavioral rhythm features achieved the highest AUC-ROC of 0.79 [Sensitivity = 0.69, Specificity=0.89, F$_{0.1}$ = 0.76], outperforming prior approaches in discriminating Covid-positive patients from healthy controls using 24 hours of historical wearable physiological. Rhythmic features were the most predictive of Covid-19 infection when utilized either alone or in conjunction with sensor features. Sensor features predicted healthy subjects best. Circadian rest-activity rhythms that combine 24h activity and sleep information were the most disrupted. CovidRhythm demonstrates that biobehavioral rhythms derived from consumer-grade wearable data can facilitate timely Covid-19 detection. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to detect Covid-19 using deep learning and biobehavioral rhythms features derived from consumer-grade wearable data.