pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Learning to forecast diagnostic parameters using pre-trained weather embedding
Authors: Peetak P. Mitra, Vivek Ramavajjala
Date: 2023-12-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Diagnostic, Friction, Weather Forecasting

Data-driven weather prediction (DDWP) models are increasingly becoming popular for weather forecasting. However, while operational weather forecasts predict a wide variety of weather variables, DDWPs currently forecast a specific set of key prognostic variables. Non-prognostic ("diagnostic") variables are sometimes modeled separately as dependent variables of the prognostic variables (c.f. FourCastNet), or by including the diagnostic variable as a target in the DDWP. However, the cost of training and deploying bespoke models for each diagnostic variable can increase dramatically with more diagnostic variables, and limit the operational use of such models. Likewise, retraining an entire DDWP each time a new diagnostic variable is added is also cost-prohibitive. We present an two-stage approach that allows new diagnostic variables to be added to an end-to-end DDWP model without the expensive retraining. In the first stage, we train an autoencoder that learns to embed prognostic variables into a latent space. In the second stage, the autoencoder is frozen and "downstream" models are trained to predict diagnostic variables using only the latent representations of prognostic variables as input. Our experiments indicate that models trained using the two-stage approach offer accuracy comparable to training bespoke models, while leading to significant reduction in resource utilization during training and inference. This approach allows for new "downstream" models to be developed as needed, without affecting existing models and thus reducing the friction in operationalizing new models.
Age-Based Scheduling for Mobile Edge Computing: A Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach
Authors: Xingqiu He, Chaoqun You, Tony Q. S. Quek
Date: 2023-12-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Reinforcement Learning, Edge-computing, Reinforcement Learning (RL), Scheduling

With the rapid development of Mobile Edge Computing (MEC), various real-time applications have been deployed to benefit people's daily lives. The performance of these applications relies heavily on the freshness of collected environmental information, which can be quantified by its Age of Information (AoI). In the traditional definition of AoI, it is assumed that the status information can be actively sampled and directly used. However, for many MEC-enabled applications, the desired status information is updated in an event-driven manner and necessitates data processing. To better serve these applications, we propose a new definition of AoI and, based on the redefined AoI, we formulate an online AoI minimization problem for MEC systems. Notably, the problem can be interpreted as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), thus enabling its solution through Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms. Nevertheless, the traditional RL algorithms are designed for MDPs with completely unknown system dynamics and hence usually suffer long convergence times. To accelerate the learning process, we introduce Post-Decision States (PDSs) to exploit the partial knowledge of the system's dynamics. We also combine PDSs with deep RL to further improve the algorithm's applicability, scalability, and robustness. Numerical results demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms the benchmarks under various scenarios.
Text Attribute Control via Closed-Loop Disentanglement
Authors: Lei Sha, Thomas Lukasiewicz
Date: 2023-12-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Attribute, Contrastive Learning, Disentanglement, Sentence

Changing an attribute of a text without changing the content usually requires to first disentangle the text into irrelevant attributes and content representations. After that, in the inference phase, the representation of one attribute is tuned to a different value, expecting that the corresponding attribute of the text can also be changed accordingly. The usual way of disentanglement is to add some constraints on the latent space of an encoder-decoder architecture, including adversarial-based constraints and mutual-information-based constraints. However, the previous semi-supervised processes of attribute change are usually not enough to guarantee the success of attribute change and content preservation. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to achieve a robust control of attributes while enhancing content preservation. In this approach, we use a semi-supervised contrastive learning method to encourage the disentanglement of attributes in latent spaces. Differently from previous works, we re-disentangle the reconstructed sentence and compare the re-disentangled latent space with the original latent space, which makes a closed-loop disentanglement process. This also helps content preservation. In addition, the contrastive learning method is also able to replace the role of minimizing mutual information and adversarial training in the disentanglement process, which alleviates the computation cost. We conducted experiments on three text datasets, including the Yelp Service review dataset, the Amazon Product review dataset, and the GoEmotions dataset. The experimental results show the effectiveness of our model.
Automating Continual Learning
Authors: Kazuki Irie, Róbert Csordás, Jürgen Schmidhuber
Date: 2023-12-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Continual Learning, image-classification, Image Classification, Meta-Learning, Split-MNIST

General-purpose learning systems should improve themselves in open-ended fashion in ever-changing environments. Conventional learning algorithms for neural networks, however, suffer from catastrophic forgetting (CF) -- previously acquired skills are forgotten when a new task is learned. Instead of hand-crafting new algorithms for avoiding CF, we propose Automated Continual Learning (ACL) to train self-referential neural networks to meta-learn their own in-context continual (meta-)learning algorithms. ACL encodes all desiderata -- good performance on both old and new tasks -- into its meta-learning objectives. Our experiments demonstrate that ACL effectively solves "in-context catastrophic forgetting"; our ACL-learned algorithms outperform hand-crafted ones, e.g., on the Split-MNIST benchmark in the replay-free setting, and enables continual learning of diverse tasks consisting of multiple few-shot and standard image classification datasets.
Towards Clinical Prediction with Transparency: An Explainable AI Approach to Survival Modelling in Residential Aged Care
Authors: Teo Susnjak, Elise Griffin
Date: 2023-12-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Nutrition, Survival Prediction

Background: Accurate survival time estimates aid end-of-life medical decision-making. Objectives: Develop an interpretable survival model for elderly residential aged care residents using advanced machine learning. Setting: A major Australasian residential aged care provider. Participants: Residents aged 65+ admitted for long-term care from July 2017 to August 2023. Sample size: 11,944 residents across 40 facilities. Predictors: Factors include age, gender, health status, co-morbidities, cognitive function, mood, nutrition, mobility, smoking, sleep, skin integrity, and continence. Outcome: Probability of survival post-admission, specifically calibrated for 6-month survival estimates. Statistical Analysis: Tested CoxPH, EN, RR, Lasso, GB, XGB, and RF models in 20 experiments with a 90/10 train/test split. Evaluated accuracy using C-index, Harrell's C-index, dynamic AUROC, IBS, and calibrated ROC. Chose XGB for its performance and calibrated it for 1, 3, 6, and 12-month predictions using Platt scaling. Employed SHAP values to analyze predictor impacts. Results: GB, XGB, and RF models showed the highest C-Index values (0.714, 0.712, 0.712). The optimal XGB model demonstrated a 6-month survival prediction AUROC of 0.746 (95% CI 0.744-0.749). Key mortality predictors include age, male gender, mobility, health status, pressure ulcer risk, and appetite. Conclusions: The study successfully applies machine learning to create a survival model for aged care, aligning with clinical insights on mortality risk factors and enhancing model interpretability and clinical utility through explainable AI.
Directions of Curvature as an Explanation for Loss of Plasticity
Authors: Alex Lewandowski, Haruto Tanaka, Dale Schuurmans, Marlos C. Machado
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Continual Learning

Loss of plasticity is a phenomenon in which neural networks lose their ability to learn from new experience. Despite being empirically observed in several problem settings, little is understood about the mechanisms that lead to loss of plasticity. In this paper, we offer a consistent explanation for loss of plasticity: Neural networks lose directions of curvature during training and that loss of plasticity can be attributed to this reduction in curvature. To support such a claim, we provide a systematic investigation of loss of plasticity across continual learning tasks using MNIST, CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Our findings illustrate that loss of curvature directions coincides with loss of plasticity, while also showing that previous explanations are insufficient to explain loss of plasticity in all settings. Lastly, we show that regularizers which mitigate loss of plasticity also preserve curvature, motivating a simple distributional regularizer that proves to be effective across the problem settings we considered.
Self-similarity of Communities of the ABCD Model
Authors: Jordan Barrett, Bogumil Kaminski, Pawel Pralat, Francois Theberge
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Community Detection, model

The Artificial Benchmark for Community Detection (ABCD) graph is a random graph model with community structure and power-law distribution for both degrees and community sizes. The model generates graphs similar to the well-known LFR model but it is faster and can be investigated analytically. In this paper, we show that the ABCD model exhibits some interesting self-similar behaviour, namely, the degree distribution of ground-truth communities is asymptotically the same as the degree distribution of the whole graph (appropriately normalized based on their sizes). As a result, we can not only estimate the number of edges induced by each community but also the number of self-loops and multi-edges generated during the process. Understanding these quantities is important as (a) rewiring self-loops and multi-edges to keep the graph simple is an expensive part of the algorithm, and (b) every rewiring causes the underlying configuration models to deviate slightly from uniform simple graphs on their corresponding degree sequences.
Deep Equilibrium Based Neural Operators for Steady-State PDEs
Authors: Tanya Marwah, Ashwini Pokle, J. Zico Kolter, Zachary C. Lipton, Jianfeng Lu, Andrej Risteski
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2023 11

Data-driven machine learning approaches are being increasingly used to solve partial differential equations (PDEs). They have shown particularly striking successes when training an operator, which takes as input a PDE in some family, and outputs its solution. However, the architectural design space, especially given structural knowledge of the PDE family of interest, is still poorly understood. We seek to remedy this gap by studying the benefits of weight-tied neural network architectures for steady-state PDEs. To achieve this, we first demonstrate that the solution of most steady-state PDEs can be expressed as a fixed point of a non-linear operator. Motivated by this observation, we propose FNO-DEQ, a deep equilibrium variant of the FNO architecture that directly solves for the solution of a steady-state PDE as the infinite-depth fixed point of an implicit operator layer using a black-box root solver and differentiates analytically through this fixed point resulting in $\mathcal{O}(1)$ training memory. Our experiments indicate that FNO-DEQ-based architectures outperform FNO-based baselines with $4\times$ the number of parameters in predicting the solution to steady-state PDEs such as Darcy Flow and steady-state incompressible Navier-Stokes. Finally, we show FNO-DEQ is more robust when trained with datasets with more noisy observations than the FNO-based baselines, demonstrating the benefits of using appropriate inductive biases in architectural design for different neural network based PDE solvers. Further, we show a universal approximation result that demonstrates that FNO-DEQ can approximate the solution to any steady-state PDE that can be written as a fixed point equation.
EpiTESTER: Testing Autonomous Vehicles with Epigenetic Algorithm and Attention Mechanism
Authors: Chengjie Lu, Shaukat Ali, Tao Yue
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Autonomous Driving, Autonomous Vehicles

Testing autonomous vehicles (AVs) under various environmental scenarios that lead the vehicles to unsafe situations is known to be challenging. Given the infinite possible environmental scenarios, it is essential to find critical scenarios efficiently. To this end, we propose a novel testing method, named EpiTESTER, by taking inspiration from epigenetics, which enables species to adapt to sudden environmental changes. In particular, EpiTESTER adopts gene silencing as its epigenetic mechanism, which regulates gene expression to prevent the expression of a certain gene, and the probability of gene expression is dynamically computed as the environment changes. Given different data modalities (e.g., images, lidar point clouds) in the context of AV, EpiTESTER benefits from a multi-model fusion transformer to extract high-level feature representations from environmental factors and then calculates probabilities based on these features with the attention mechanism. To assess the cost-effectiveness of EpiTESTER, we compare it with a classical genetic algorithm (GA) (i.e., without any epigenetic mechanism implemented) and EpiTESTER with equal probability for each gene. We evaluate EpiTESTER with four initial environments from CARLA, an open-source simulator for autonomous driving research, and an end-to-end AV controller, Interfuser. Our results show that EpiTESTER achieved a promising performance in identifying critical scenarios compared to the baselines, showing that applying epigenetic mechanisms is a good option for solving practical problems.
Optimal Attack and Defense for Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Jeremy McMahan, Young Wu, Xiaojin Zhu, Qiaomin Xie
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Tasks: reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

To ensure the usefulness of Reinforcement Learning (RL) in real systems, it is crucial to ensure they are robust to noise and adversarial attacks. In adversarial RL, an external attacker has the power to manipulate the victim agent's interaction with the environment. We study the full class of online manipulation attacks, which include (i) state attacks, (ii) observation attacks (which are a generalization of perceived-state attacks), (iii) action attacks, and (iv) reward attacks. We show the attacker's problem of designing a stealthy attack that maximizes its own expected reward, which often corresponds to minimizing the victim's value, is captured by a Markov Decision Process (MDP) that we call a meta-MDP since it is not the true environment but a higher level environment induced by the attacked interaction. We show that the attacker can derive optimal attacks by planning in polynomial time or learning with polynomial sample complexity using standard RL techniques. We argue that the optimal defense policy for the victim can be computed as the solution to a stochastic Stackelberg game, which can be further simplified into a partially-observable turn-based stochastic game (POTBSG). Neither the attacker nor the victim would benefit from deviating from their respective optimal policies, thus such solutions are truly robust. Although the defense problem is NP-hard, we show that optimal Markovian defenses can be computed (learned) in polynomial time (sample complexity) in many scenarios.
Robust Concept Erasure via Kernelized Rate-Distortion Maximization
Authors: Somnath Basu Roy Chowdhury, Nicholas Monath, Avinava Dubey, Amr Ahmed, Snigdha Chaturvedi
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2023 11
Tasks: Attribute, Metric Learning, Word Embeddings

Distributed representations provide a vector space that captures meaningful relationships between data instances. The distributed nature of these representations, however, entangles together multiple attributes or concepts of data instances (e.g., the topic or sentiment of a text, characteristics of the author (age, gender, etc), etc). Recent work has proposed the task of concept erasure, in which rather than making a concept predictable, the goal is to remove an attribute from distributed representations while retaining other information from the original representation space as much as possible. In this paper, we propose a new distance metric learning-based objective, the Kernelized Rate-Distortion Maximizer (KRaM), for performing concept erasure. KRaM fits a transformation of representations to match a specified distance measure (defined by a labeled concept to erase) using a modified rate-distortion function. Specifically, KRaM's objective function aims to make instances with similar concept labels dissimilar in the learned representation space while retaining other information. We find that optimizing KRaM effectively erases various types of concepts: categorical, continuous, and vector-valued variables from data representations across diverse domains. We also provide a theoretical analysis of several properties of KRaM's objective. To assess the quality of the learned representations, we propose an alignment score to evaluate their similarity with the original representation space. Additionally, we conduct experiments to showcase KRaM's efficacy in various settings, from erasing binary gender variables in word embeddings to vector-valued variables in GPT-3 representations.
Enhancing Ligand Pose Sampling for Molecular Docking
Authors: Patricia Suriana, Ron O. Dror
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Benchmarking, Molecular Docking, Pose Prediction

Deep learning promises to dramatically improve scoring functions for molecular docking, leading to substantial advances in binding pose prediction and virtual screening. To train scoring functions-and to perform molecular docking-one must generate a set of candidate ligand binding poses. Unfortunately, the sampling protocols currently used to generate candidate poses frequently fail to produce any poses close to the correct, experimentally determined pose, unless information about the correct pose is provided. This limits the accuracy of learned scoring functions and molecular docking. Here, we describe two improved protocols for pose sampling: GLOW (auGmented sampLing with sOftened vdW potential) and a novel technique named IVES (IteratiVe Ensemble Sampling). Our benchmarking results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in improving the likelihood of sampling accurate poses, especially for binding pockets whose shape changes substantially when different ligands bind. This improvement is observed across both experimentally determined and AlphaFold-generated protein structures. Additionally, we present datasets of candidate ligand poses generated using our methods for each of around 5,000 protein-ligand cross-docking pairs, for training and testing scoring functions. To benefit the research community, we provide these cross-docking datasets and an open-source Python implementation of GLOW and IVES at https://github.com/drorlab/GLOW_IVES .
When Is Inductive Inference Possible?
Authors: Zhou Lu
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Learning Theory, Philosophy

Can a physicist make only a finite number of errors in the eternal quest to uncover the law of nature? This millennium-old philosophical problem, known as inductive inference, lies at the heart of epistemology. Despite its significance to understanding human reasoning, a rigorous justification of inductive inference has remained elusive. At a high level, inductive inference asks whether one can make at most finite errors amidst an infinite sequence of observations, when deducing the correct hypothesis from a given hypothesis class. Historically, the only theoretical guarantee has been that if the hypothesis class is countable, inductive inference is possible, as exemplified by Solomonoff induction for learning Turing machines. In this paper, we provide a tight characterization of inductive inference by establishing a novel link to online learning theory. As our main result, we prove that inductive inference is possible if and only if the hypothesis class is a countable union of online learnable classes, potentially with an uncountable size, no matter the observations are adaptively chosen or iid sampled. Moreover, the same condition is also sufficient and necessary in the agnostic setting, where any hypothesis class meeting this criterion enjoys an $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret bound for any time step $T$, while others require an arbitrarily slow rate of regret. Our main technical tool is a novel non-uniform online learning framework, which may be of independent interest.
The Multiverse of Dynamic Mode Decomposition Algorithms
Authors: Matthew J. Colbrook
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00

Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is a popular data-driven analysis technique used to decompose complex, nonlinear systems into a set of modes, revealing underlying patterns and dynamics through spectral analysis. This review presents a comprehensive and pedagogical examination of DMD, emphasizing the role of Koopman operators in transforming complex nonlinear dynamics into a linear framework. A distinctive feature of this review is its focus on the relationship between DMD and the spectral properties of Koopman operators, with particular emphasis on the theory and practice of DMD algorithms for spectral computations. We explore the diverse "multiverse" of DMD methods, categorized into three main areas: linear regression-based methods, Galerkin approximations, and structure-preserving techniques. Each category is studied for its unique contributions and challenges, providing a detailed overview of significant algorithms and their applications as outlined in Table 1. We include a MATLAB package with examples and applications to enhance the practical understanding of these methods. This review serves as both a practical guide and a theoretical reference for various DMD methods, accessible to both experts and newcomers, and enabling readers to delve into their areas of interest in the expansive field of DMD.
Low latency optical-based mode tracking with machine learning deployed on FPGAs on a tokamak
Authors: Yumou Wei, Ryan F. Forelli, Chris Hansen, Jeffrey P. Levesque, Nhan Tran, Joshua C. Agar, Giuseppe Di Guglielmo, Michael E. Mauel, Gerald A. Navratil
Date: 2023-11-30 00:00:00
Tasks: Diagnostic

Active feedback control in magnetic confinement fusion devices is desirable to mitigate plasma instabilities and enable robust operation. Optical high-speed cameras provide a powerful, non-invasive diagnostic and can be suitable for these applications. In this study, we process fast camera data, at rates exceeding 100kfps, on $\textit{in situ}$ Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) hardware to track magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode evolution and generate control signals in real-time. Our system utilizes a convolutional neural network (CNN) model which predicts the $n$=1 MHD mode amplitude and phase using camera images with better accuracy than other tested non-deep-learning-based methods. By implementing this model directly within the standard FPGA readout hardware of the high-speed camera diagnostic, our mode tracking system achieves a total trigger-to-output latency of 17.6$\mu$s and a throughput of up to 120kfps. This study at the High Beta Tokamak-Extended Pulse (HBT-EP) experiment demonstrates an FPGA-based high-speed camera data acquisition and processing system, enabling application in real-time machine-learning-based tokamak diagnostic and control as well as potential applications in other scientific domains.