pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Density Ratio Estimation and Neyman Pearson Classification with Missing Data
Authors: Josh Givens, Song Liu, Henry W J Reeve
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Density Ratio Estimation

Density Ratio Estimation (DRE) is an important machine learning technique with many downstream applications. We consider the challenge of DRE with missing not at random (MNAR) data. In this setting, we show that using standard DRE methods leads to biased results while our proposal (M-KLIEP), an adaptation of the popular DRE procedure KLIEP, restores consistency. Moreover, we provide finite sample estimation error bounds for M-KLIEP, which demonstrate minimax optimality with respect to both sample size and worst-case missingness. We then adapt an important downstream application of DRE, Neyman-Pearson (NP) classification, to this MNAR setting. Our procedure both controls Type I error and achieves high power, with high probability. Finally, we demonstrate promising empirical performance both synthetic data and real-world data with simulated missingness.
A Survey of Trustworthy Federated Learning with Perspectives on Security, Robustness, and Privacy
Authors: Yifei Zhang, Dun Zeng, Jinglong Luo, Zenglin Xu, Irwin King
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Drug Discovery, Federated Learning

Trustworthy artificial intelligence (AI) technology has revolutionized daily life and greatly benefited human society. Among various AI technologies, Federated Learning (FL) stands out as a promising solution for diverse real-world scenarios, ranging from risk evaluation systems in finance to cutting-edge technologies like drug discovery in life sciences. However, challenges around data isolation and privacy threaten the trustworthiness of FL systems. Adversarial attacks against data privacy, learning algorithm stability, and system confidentiality are particularly concerning in the context of distributed training in federated learning. Therefore, it is crucial to develop FL in a trustworthy manner, with a focus on security, robustness, and privacy. In this survey, we propose a comprehensive roadmap for developing trustworthy FL systems and summarize existing efforts from three key aspects: security, robustness, and privacy. We outline the threats that pose vulnerabilities to trustworthy federated learning across different stages of development, including data processing, model training, and deployment. To guide the selection of the most appropriate defense methods, we discuss specific technical solutions for realizing each aspect of Trustworthy FL (TFL). Our approach differs from previous work that primarily discusses TFL from a legal perspective or presents FL from a high-level, non-technical viewpoint.
$ω$PAP Spaces: Reasoning Denotationally About Higher-Order, Recursive Probabilistic and Differentiable Programs
Authors: Mathieu Huot, Alexander K. Lew, Vikash K. Mansinghka, Sam Staton
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Probabilistic Programming

We introduce a new setting, the category of $\omega$PAP spaces, for reasoning denotationally about expressive differentiable and probabilistic programming languages. Our semantics is general enough to assign meanings to most practical probabilistic and differentiable programs, including those that use general recursion, higher-order functions, discontinuous primitives, and both discrete and continuous sampling. But crucially, it is also specific enough to exclude many pathological denotations, enabling us to establish new results about both deterministic differentiable programs and probabilistic programs. In the deterministic setting, we prove very general correctness theorems for automatic differentiation and its use within gradient descent. In the probabilistic setting, we establish the almost-everywhere differentiability of probabilistic programs' trace density functions, and the existence of convenient base measures for density computation in Monte Carlo inference. In some cases these results were previously known, but required detailed proofs with an operational flavor; by contrast, all our proofs work directly with programs' denotations.
Generalization Bounds for Adversarial Contrastive Learning
Authors: Xin Zou, Weiwei Liu
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Contrastive Learning, Generalization Bounds

Deep networks are well-known to be fragile to adversarial attacks, and adversarial training is one of the most popular methods used to train a robust model. To take advantage of unlabeled data, recent works have applied adversarial training to contrastive learning (Adversarial Contrastive Learning; ACL for short) and obtain promising robust performance. However, the theory of ACL is not well understood. To fill this gap, we leverage the Rademacher complexity to analyze the generalization performance of ACL, with a particular focus on linear models and multi-layer neural networks under $\ell_p$ attack ($p \ge 1$). Our theory shows that the average adversarial risk of the downstream tasks can be upper bounded by the adversarial unsupervised risk of the upstream task. The experimental results validate our theory.
FedST: Secure Federated Shapelet Transformation for Time Series Classification
Authors: Zhiyu Liang, Hongzhi Wang
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, Federated Learning, Privacy Preserving, Time Series, Time Series Analysis, Time Series Classification

This paper explores how to build a shapelet-based time series classification (TSC) model in the federated learning (FL) scenario, that is, using more data from multiple owners without actually sharing the data. We propose FedST, a novel federated TSC framework extended from a centralized shapelet transformation method. We recognize the federated shapelet search step as the kernel of FedST. Thus, we design a basic protocol for the FedST kernel that we prove to be secure and accurate. However, we identify that the basic protocol suffers from efficiency bottlenecks and the centralized acceleration techniques lose their efficacy due to the security issues. To speed up the federated protocol with security guarantee, we propose several optimizations tailored for the FL setting. Our theoretical analysis shows that the proposed methods are secure and more efficient. We conduct extensive experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets. Empirical results show that our FedST solution is effective in terms of TSC accuracy, and the proposed optimizations can achieve three orders of magnitude of speedup.
Estimating long-term causal effects from short-term experiments and long-term observational data with unobserved confounding
Authors: Graham Van Goffrier, Lucas Maystre, Ciarán Gilligan-Lee
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

Understanding and quantifying cause and effect is an important problem in many domains. The generally-agreed solution to this problem is to perform a randomised controlled trial. However, even when randomised controlled trials can be performed, they usually have relatively short duration's due to cost considerations. This makes learning long-term causal effects a very challenging task in practice, since the long-term outcome is only observed after a long delay. In this paper, we study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects when both experimental and observational data are available. Previous work provided an estimation strategy to determine long-term causal effects from such data regimes. However, this strategy only works if one assumes there are no unobserved confounders in the observational data. In this paper, we specifically address the challenging case where unmeasured confounders are present in the observational data. Our long-term causal effect estimator is obtained by combining regression residuals with short-term experimental outcomes in a specific manner to create an instrumental variable, which is then used to quantify the long-term causal effect through instrumental variable regression. We prove this estimator is unbiased, and analytically study its variance. In the context of the front-door causal structure, this provides a new causal estimator, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we empirically test our approach on synthetic-data, as well as real-data from the International Stroke Trial.
The Gaussian kernel on the circle and spaces that admit isometric embeddings of the circle
Authors: Nathaël Da Costa, Cyrus Mostajeran, Juan-Pablo Ortega
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00

On Euclidean spaces, the Gaussian kernel is one of the most widely used kernels in applications. It has also been used on non-Euclidean spaces, where it is known that there may be (and often are) scale parameters for which it is not positive definite. Hope remains that this kernel is positive definite for many choices of parameter. However, we show that the Gaussian kernel is not positive definite on the circle for any choice of parameter. This implies that on metric spaces in which the circle can be isometrically embedded, such as spheres, projective spaces and Grassmannians, the Gaussian kernel is not positive definite for any parameter.
Tree-Based Machine Learning Methods For Vehicle Insurance Claims Size Prediction
Authors: Edossa Merga Terefe
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Ensemble Learning

Vehicle insurance claims size prediction needs methods to efficiently handle these claims. Machine learning (ML) is one of the methods that solve this problem. Tree-based ensemble learning algorithms are highly effective and widely used ML methods. This study considers how vehicle insurance providers incorporate ML methods in their companies and explores how the models can be applied to insurance big data. We utilize various tree-based ML methods, such as bagging, random forest, and gradient boosting, to determine the relative importance of predictors in predicting claims size and to explore the relationships between claims size and predictors. Furthermore, we evaluate and compare these models' performances. The results show that tree-based ensemble methods are better than the classical least square method. Keywords: claims size prediction; machine learning; tree-based ensemble methods; vehicle insurance.
Classy Ensemble: A Novel Ensemble Algorithm for Classification
Authors: Moshe Sipper
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, Clustering

We present Classy Ensemble, a novel ensemble-generation algorithm for classification tasks, which aggregates models through a weighted combination of per-class accuracy. Tested over 153 machine learning datasets we demonstrate that Classy Ensemble outperforms two other well-known aggregation algorithms -- order-based pruning and clustering-based pruning -- as well as the recently introduced lexigarden ensemble generator. We then present three enhancements: 1) Classy Cluster Ensemble, which combines Classy Ensemble and cluster-based pruning; 2) Deep Learning experiments, showing the merits of Classy Ensemble over four image datasets: Fashion MNIST, CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet; and 3) Classy Evolutionary Ensemble, wherein an evolutionary algorithm is used to select the set of models which Classy Ensemble picks from. This latter, combining learning and evolution, resulted in improved performance on the hardest dataset.
Don't guess what's true: choose what's optimal. A probability transducer for machine-learning classifiers
Authors: K. Dyrland, A. S. Lundervold, P. G. L. Porta Mana
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Drug Discovery

In fields such as medicine and drug discovery, the ultimate goal of a classification is not to guess a class, but to choose the optimal course of action among a set of possible ones, usually not in one-one correspondence with the set of classes. This decision-theoretic problem requires sensible probabilities for the classes. Probabilities conditional on the features are computationally almost impossible to find in many important cases. The main idea of the present work is to calculate probabilities conditional not on the features, but on the trained classifier's output. This calculation is cheap, needs to be made only once, and provides an output-to-probability "transducer" that can be applied to all future outputs of the classifier. In conjunction with problem-dependent utilities, the probabilities of the transducer allow us to find the optimal choice among the classes or among a set of more general decisions, by means of expected-utility maximization. This idea is demonstrated in a simplified drug-discovery problem with a highly imbalanced dataset. The transducer and utility maximization together always lead to improved results, sometimes close to theoretical maximum, for all sets of problem-dependent utilities. The one-time-only calculation of the transducer also provides, automatically: (i) a quantification of the uncertainty about the transducer itself; (ii) the expected utility of the augmented algorithm (including its uncertainty), which can be used for algorithm selection; (iii) the possibility of using the algorithm in a "generative mode", useful if the training dataset is biased.
Managing multi-facet bias in collaborative filtering recommender systems
Authors: Samira Vaez Barenji, Saeed Farzi
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Collaborative Filtering, Recommendation Systems

Due to the extensive growth of information available online, recommender systems play a more significant role in serving people's interests. Traditional recommender systems mostly use an accuracy-focused approach to produce recommendations. Today's research suggests that this single-dimension approach can lead the system to be biased against a series of items with certain attributes. Biased recommendations across groups of items can endanger the interests of item providers along with causing user dissatisfaction with the system. This study aims to manage a new type of intersectional bias regarding the geographical origin and popularity of items in the output of state-of-the-art collaborative filtering recommender algorithms. We introduce an algorithm called MFAIR, a multi-facet post-processing bias mitigation algorithm to alleviate these biases. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets of movies and books, enriched with the items' continents of production, show that the proposed algorithm strikes a reasonable balance between accuracy and both types of the mentioned biases. According to the results, our proposed approach outperforms a well-known competitor with no or only a slight loss of efficiency.
Online Symbolic Regression with Informative Query
Authors: Pengwei Jin, Di Huang, Rui Zhang, Xing Hu, Ziyuan Nan, Zidong Du, Qi Guo, Yunji Chen
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: regression, scientific discovery, Symbolic Regression

Symbolic regression, the task of extracting mathematical expressions from the observed data $\{ \vx_i, y_i \}$, plays a crucial role in scientific discovery. Despite the promising performance of existing methods, most of them conduct symbolic regression in an \textit{offline} setting. That is, they treat the observed data points as given ones that are simply sampled from uniform distributions without exploring the expressive potential of data. However, for real-world scientific problems, the data used for symbolic regression are usually actively obtained by doing experiments, which is an \textit{online} setting. Thus, how to obtain informative data that can facilitate the symbolic regression process is an important problem that remains challenging. In this paper, we propose QUOSR, a \textbf{qu}ery-based framework for \textbf{o}nline \textbf{s}ymbolic \textbf{r}egression that can automatically obtain informative data in an iterative manner. Specifically, at each step, QUOSR receives historical data points, generates new $\vx$, and then queries the symbolic expression to get the corresponding $y$, where the $(\vx, y)$ serves as new data points. This process repeats until the maximum number of query steps is reached. To make the generated data points informative, we implement the framework with a neural network and train it by maximizing the mutual information between generated data points and the target expression. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that QUOSR can facilitate modern symbolic regression methods by generating informative data.
Reentry Risk and Safety Assessment of Spacecraft Debris Based on Machine Learning
Authors: Hu Gao, Zhihui Li, Depeng Dang, Jingfan Yang, Ning Wang
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

Uncontrolled spacecraft will disintegrate and generate a large amount of debris in the reentry process, and ablative debris may cause potential risks to the safety of human life and property on the ground. Therefore, predicting the landing points of spacecraft debris and forecasting the degree of risk of debris to human life and property is very important. In view that it is difficult to predict the process of reentry process and the reentry point in advance, and the debris generated from reentry disintegration may cause ground damage for the uncontrolled space vehicle on expiration of service. In this paper, we adopt the object-oriented approach to consider the spacecraft and its disintegrated components as consisting of simple basic geometric models, and introduce three machine learning models: the support vector regression (SVR), decision tree regression (DTR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) to predict the velocity, longitude and latitude of spacecraft debris landing points for the first time. Then, we compare the prediction accuracy of the three models. Furthermore, we define the reentry risk and the degree of danger, and we calculate the risk level for each spacecraft debris and make warnings accordingly. The experimental results show that the proposed method can obtain high accuracy prediction results in at least 15 seconds and make safety level warning more real-time.
LU-Net: Invertible Neural Networks Based on Matrix Factorization
Authors: Robin Chan, Sarina Penquitt, Hanno Gottschalk
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00

LU-Net is a simple and fast architecture for invertible neural networks (INN) that is based on the factorization of quadratic weight matrices $\mathsf{A=LU}$, where $\mathsf{L}$ is a lower triangular matrix with ones on the diagonal and $\mathsf{U}$ an upper triangular matrix. Instead of learning a fully occupied matrix $\mathsf{A}$, we learn $\mathsf{L}$ and $\mathsf{U}$ separately. If combined with an invertible activation function, such layers can easily be inverted whenever the diagonal entries of $\mathsf{U}$ are different from zero. Also, the computation of the determinant of the Jacobian matrix of such layers is cheap. Consequently, the LU architecture allows for cheap computation of the likelihood via the change of variables formula and can be trained according to the maximum likelihood principle. In our numerical experiments, we test the LU-net architecture as generative model on several academic datasets. We also provide a detailed comparison with conventional invertible neural networks in terms of performance, training as well as run time.
Higher-order Sparse Convolutions in Graph Neural Networks
Authors: Jhony H. Giraldo, Sajid Javed, Arif Mahmood, Fragkiskos D. Malliaros, Thierry Bouwmans
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been applied to many problems in computer sciences. Capturing higher-order relationships between nodes is crucial to increase the expressive power of GNNs. However, existing methods to capture these relationships could be infeasible for large-scale graphs. In this work, we introduce a new higher-order sparse convolution based on the Sobolev norm of graph signals. Our Sparse Sobolev GNN (S-SobGNN) computes a cascade of filters on each layer with increasing Hadamard powers to get a more diverse set of functions, and then a linear combination layer weights the embeddings of each filter. We evaluate S-SobGNN in several applications of semi-supervised learning. S-SobGNN shows competitive performance in all applications as compared to several state-of-the-art methods.
Creating Disasters: Recession Forecasting with GAN-Generated Synthetic Time Series Data
Authors: Sam Dannels
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Time Series, Time Series Analysis

A common problem when forecasting rare events, such as recessions, is limited data availability. Recent advancements in deep learning and generative adversarial networks (GANs) make it possible to produce high-fidelity synthetic data in large quantities. This paper uses a model called DoppelGANger, a GAN tailored to producing synthetic time series data, to generate synthetic Treasury yield time series and associated recession indicators. It is then shown that short-range forecasting performance for Treasury yields is improved for models trained on synthetic data relative to models trained only on real data. Finally, synthetic recession conditions are produced and used to train classification models to predict the probability of a future recession. It is shown that training models on synthetic recessions can improve a model's ability to predict future recessions over a model trained only on real data.
Classification with Trust: A Supervised Approach based on Sequential Ellipsoidal Partitioning
Authors: Ranjani Niranjan, Sachit Rao
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00

Standard metrics of performance of classifiers, such as accuracy and sensitivity, do not reveal the trust or confidence in the predicted labels of data. While other metrics such as the computed probability of a label or the signed distance from a hyperplane can act as a trust measure, these are subjected to heuristic thresholds. This paper presents a convex optimization-based supervised classifier that sequentially partitions a dataset into several ellipsoids, where each ellipsoid contains nearly all points of the same label. By stating classification rules based on this partitioning, Bayes' formula is then applied to calculate a trust score to a label assigned to a test datapoint determined from these rules. The proposed Sequential Ellipsoidal Partitioning Classifier (SEP-C) exposes dataset irregularities, such as degree of overlap, without requiring a separate exploratory data analysis. The rules of classification, which are free of hyperparameters, are also not affected by class-imbalance, the underlying data distribution, or number of features. SEP-C does not require the use of non-linear kernels when the dataset is not linearly separable. The performance, and comparison with other methods, of SEP-C is demonstrated on the XOR-problem, circle dataset, and other open-source datasets.
Structured Bayesian Compression for Deep Neural Networks Based on The Turbo-VBI Approach
Authors: Chengyu Xia, Danny H. K. Tsang, Vincent K. N. Lau
Date: 2023-02-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Model Compression

With the growth of neural network size, model compression has attracted increasing interest in recent research. As one of the most common techniques, pruning has been studied for a long time. By exploiting the structured sparsity of the neural network, existing methods can prune neurons instead of individual weights. However, in most existing pruning methods, surviving neurons are randomly connected in the neural network without any structure, and the non-zero weights within each neuron are also randomly distributed. Such irregular sparse structure can cause very high control overhead and irregular memory access for the hardware and even increase the neural network computational complexity. In this paper, we propose a three-layer hierarchical prior to promote a more regular sparse structure during pruning. The proposed three-layer hierarchical prior can achieve per-neuron weight-level structured sparsity and neuron-level structured sparsity. We derive an efficient Turbo-variational Bayesian inferencing (Turbo-VBI) algorithm to solve the resulting model compression problem with the proposed prior. The proposed Turbo-VBI algorithm has low complexity and can support more general priors than existing model compression algorithms. Simulation results show that our proposed algorithm can promote a more regular structure in the pruned neural networks while achieving even better performance in terms of compression rate and inferencing accuracy compared with the baselines.