pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Explainable expected goal models for performance analysis in football analytics
Authors: Mustafa Cavus, Przemysław Biecek
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Explainable artificial intelligence

The expected goal provides a more representative measure of the team and player performance which also suit the low-scoring nature of football instead of score in modern football. The score of a match involves randomness and often may not represent the performance of the teams and players, therefore it has been popular to use the alternative statistics in recent years such as shots on target, ball possessions, and drills. To measure the probability of a shot being a goal by the expected goal, several features are used to train an expected goal model which is based on the event and tracking football data. The selection of these features, the size and date of the data, and the model which are used as the parameters that may affect the performance of the model. Using black-box machine learning models for increasing the predictive performance of the model decreases its interpretability that causes the loss of information that can be gathered from the model. This paper proposes an accurate expected goal model trained consisting of 315,430 shots from seven seasons between 2014-15 and 2020-21 of the top-five European football leagues. Moreover, this model is explained by using explainable artificial intelligence tool to obtain an explainable expected goal model for evaluating a team or player performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that demonstrates a practical application of an explainable artificial intelligence tool aggregated profiles to explain a group of observations on an accurate expected goal model for monitoring the team and player performance. Moreover, these methods can be generalized to other sports branches.
Attributions Beyond Neural Networks: The Linear Program Case
Authors: Florian Peter Busch, Matej Zečević, Kristian Kersting, Devendra Singh Dhami
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Explainable artificial intelligence, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)

Linear Programs (LPs) have been one of the building blocks in machine learning and have championed recent strides in differentiable optimizers for learning systems. While there exist solvers for even high-dimensional LPs, understanding said high-dimensional solutions poses an orthogonal and unresolved problem. We introduce an approach where we consider neural encodings for LPs that justify the application of attribution methods from explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) designed for neural learning systems. The several encoding functions we propose take into account aspects such as feasibility of the decision space, the cost attached to each input, or the distance to special points of interest. We investigate the mathematical consequences of several XAI methods on said neural LP encodings. We empirically show that the attribution methods Saliency and LIME reveal indistinguishable results up to perturbation levels, and we propose the property of Directedness as the main discriminative criterion between Saliency and LIME on one hand, and a perturbation-based Feature Permutation approach on the other hand. Directedness indicates whether an attribution method gives feature attributions with respect to an increase of that feature. We further notice the baseline selection problem beyond the classical computer vision setting for Integrated Gradients.
Using Machine Learning to Augment Dynamic Time Warping Based Signal Classification
Authors: Arvind Seshan
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: BIG-bench Machine Learning, Dynamic Time Warping

Modern applications such as voice recognition rely on the ability to compare signals to pre-recorded ones to classify them. However, this comparison typically needs to ignore differences due to signal noise, temporal offset, signal magnitude, and other external factors. The Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm quantifies this similarity by finding corresponding regions between the signals and non-linearly warping one signal by stretching and shrinking it. Unfortunately, searching through all "warps" of a signal to find the best corresponding regions is computationally expensive. The FastDTW algorithm improves performance, but sacrifices accuracy by only considering small signal warps. My goal is to improve the speed of DTW while maintaining high accuracy. My key insight is that in any particular application domain, signals exhibit specific types of variation. For example, the accelerometer signal measured for two different people would differ based on their stride length and weight. My system, called Machine Learning DTW (MLDTW), uses machine learning to learn the types of warps that are common in a particular domain. It then uses the learned model to improve DTW performance by limiting the search of potential warps appropriately. My results show that compared to FastDTW, MLDTW is at least as fast and reduces errors by 60% on average across four different data sets. These improvements will significantly impact a wide variety of applications (e.g. health monitoring) and enable more scalable processing of multivariate, higher frequency, and longer signal recordings.
Improving Solar Flare Prediction by Time Series Outlier Detection
Authors: Junzhi Wen, Md Reazul Islam, Azim Ahmadzadeh, Rafal A. Angryk
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Outlier Detection, Prediction, Solar Flare Prediction, Time Series, Time Series Analysis

Solar flares not only pose risks to outer space technologies and astronauts' well being, but also cause disruptions on earth to our hight-tech, interconnected infrastructure our lives highly depend on. While a number of machine-learning methods have been proposed to improve flare prediction, none of them, to the best of our knowledge, have investigated the impact of outliers on the reliability and those models' performance. In this study, we investigate the impact of outliers in a multivariate time series benchmark dataset, namely SWAN-SF, on flare prediction models, and test our hypothesis. That is, there exist outliers in SWAN-SF, removal of which enhances the performance of the prediction models on unseen datasets. We employ Isolation Forest to detect the outliers among the weaker flare instances. Several experiments are carried out using a large range of contamination rates which determine the percentage of present outliers. We asses the quality of each dataset in terms of its actual contamination using TimeSeriesSVC. In our best finding, we achieve a 279% increase in True Skill Statistic and 68% increase in Heidke Skill Score. The results show that overall a significant improvement can be achieved to flare prediction if outliers are detected and removed properly.
Towards a Solution to Bongard Problems: A Causal Approach
Authors: Salahedine Youssef, Matej Zečević, Devendra Singh Dhami, Kristian Kersting
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Contrastive Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Even though AI has advanced rapidly in recent years displaying success in solving highly complex problems, the class of Bongard Problems (BPs) yet remain largely unsolved by modern ML techniques. In this paper, we propose a new approach in an attempt to not only solve BPs but also extract meaning out of learned representations. This includes the reformulation of the classical BP into a reinforcement learning (RL) setting which will allow the model to gain access to counterfactuals to guide its decisions but also explain its decisions. Since learning meaningful representations in BPs is an essential sub-problem, we further make use of contrastive learning for the extraction of low level features from pixel data. Several experiments have been conducted for analyzing the general BP-RL setup, feature extraction methods and using the best combination for the feature space analysis and its interpretation.
Tearing Apart NOTEARS: Controlling the Graph Prediction via Variance Manipulation
Authors: Jonas Seng, Matej Zečević, Devendra Singh Dhami, Kristian Kersting
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Graph Learning

Simulations are ubiquitous in machine learning. Especially in graph learning, simulations of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) are being deployed for evaluating new algorithms. In the literature, it was recently argued that continuous-optimization approaches to structure discovery such as NOTEARS might be exploiting the sortability of the variable's variances in the available data due to their use of least square losses. Specifically, since structure discovery is a key problem in science and beyond, we want to be invariant to the scale being used for measuring our data (e.g. meter versus centimeter should not affect the causal direction inferred by the algorithm). In this work, we further strengthen this initial, negative empirical suggestion by both proving key results in the multivariate case and corroborating with further empirical evidence. In particular, we show that we can control the resulting graph with our targeted variance attacks, even in the case where we can only partially manipulate the variances of the data.
Machines Explaining Linear Programs
Authors: David Steinmann, Matej Zečević, Devendra Singh Dhami, Kristian Kersting
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00

There has been a recent push in making machine learning models more interpretable so that their performance can be trusted. Although successful, these methods have mostly focused on the deep learning methods while the fundamental optimization methods in machine learning such as linear programs (LP) have been left out. Even if LPs can be considered as whitebox or clearbox models, they are not easy to understand in terms of relationships between inputs and outputs. As a linear program only provides the optimal solution to an optimization problem, further explanations are often helpful. In this work, we extend the attribution methods for explaining neural networks to linear programs. These methods explain the model by providing relevance scores for the model inputs, to show the influence of each input on the output. Alongside using classical gradient-based attribution methods we also propose a way to adapt perturbation-based attribution methods to LPs. Our evaluations of several different linear and integer problems showed that attribution methods can generate useful explanations for linear programs. However, we also demonstrate that using a neural attribution method directly might come with some drawbacks, as the properties of these methods on neural networks do not necessarily transfer to linear programs. The methods can also struggle if a linear program has more than one optimal solution, as a solver just returns one possible solution. Our results can hopefully be used as a good starting point for further research in this direction.
Defending Observation Attacks in Deep Reinforcement Learning via Detection and Denoising
Authors: Zikang Xiong, Joe Eappen, He Zhu, Suresh Jagannathan
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: continuous-control, Continuous Control, Deep Reinforcement Learning, Denoising, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Neural network policies trained using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) are well-known to be susceptible to adversarial attacks. In this paper, we consider attacks manifesting as perturbations in the observation space managed by the external environment. These attacks have been shown to downgrade policy performance significantly. We focus our attention on well-trained deterministic and stochastic neural network policies in the context of continuous control benchmarks subject to four well-studied observation space adversarial attacks. To defend against these attacks, we propose a novel defense strategy using a detect-and-denoise schema. Unlike previous adversarial training approaches that sample data in adversarial scenarios, our solution does not require sampling data in an environment under attack, thereby greatly reducing risk during training. Detailed experimental results show that our technique is comparable with state-of-the-art adversarial training approaches.
To Aggregate or Not? Learning with Separate Noisy Labels
Authors: Jiaheng Wei, Zhaowei Zhu, Tianyi Luo, Ehsan Amid, Abhishek Kumar, Yang Liu
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Learning with noisy labels

The rawly collected training data often comes with separate noisy labels collected from multiple imperfect annotators (e.g., via crowdsourcing). A typical way of using these separate labels is to first aggregate them into one and apply standard training methods. The literature has also studied extensively on effective aggregation approaches. This paper revisits this choice and aims to provide an answer to the question of whether one should aggregate separate noisy labels into single ones or use them separately as given. We theoretically analyze the performance of both approaches under the empirical risk minimization framework for a number of popular loss functions, including the ones designed specifically for the problem of learning with noisy labels. Our theorems conclude that label separation is preferred over label aggregation when the noise rates are high, or the number of labelers/annotations is insufficient. Extensive empirical results validate our conclusions.
Towards Goal, Feasibility, and Diversity-Oriented Deep Generative Models in Design
Authors: Lyle Regenwetter, Faez Ahmed
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Design Synthesis, Diversity

Deep Generative Machine Learning Models (DGMs) have been growing in popularity across the design community thanks to their ability to learn and mimic complex data distributions. DGMs are conventionally trained to minimize statistical divergence between the distribution over generated data and distribution over the dataset on which they are trained. While sufficient for the task of generating "realistic" fake data, this objective is typically insufficient for design synthesis tasks. Instead, design problems typically call for adherence to design requirements, such as performance targets and constraints. Advancing DGMs in engineering design requires new training objectives which promote engineering design objectives. In this paper, we present the first Deep Generative Model that simultaneously optimizes for performance, feasibility, diversity, and target achievement. We benchmark performance of the proposed method against several Deep Generative Models over eight evaluation metrics that focus on feasibility, diversity, and satisfaction of design performance targets. Methods are tested on a challenging multi-objective bicycle frame design problem with skewed, multimodal data of different datatypes. The proposed framework was found to outperform all Deep Generative Models in six of eight metrics.
Efficiently Training Low-Curvature Neural Networks
Authors: Suraj Srinivas, Kyle Matoba, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Francois Fleuret
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Adversarial Robustness

The highly non-linear nature of deep neural networks causes them to be susceptible to adversarial examples and have unstable gradients which hinders interpretability. However, existing methods to solve these issues, such as adversarial training, are expensive and often sacrifice predictive accuracy. In this work, we consider curvature, which is a mathematical quantity which encodes the degree of non-linearity. Using this, we demonstrate low-curvature neural networks (LCNNs) that obtain drastically lower curvature than standard models while exhibiting similar predictive performance, which leads to improved robustness and stable gradients, with only a marginally increased training time. To achieve this, we minimize a data-independent upper bound on the curvature of a neural network, which decomposes overall curvature in terms of curvatures and slopes of its constituent layers. To efficiently minimize this bound, we introduce two novel architectural components: first, a non-linearity called centered-softplus that is a stable variant of the softplus non-linearity, and second, a Lipschitz-constrained batch normalization layer. Our experiments show that LCNNs have lower curvature, more stable gradients and increased off-the-shelf adversarial robustness when compared to their standard high-curvature counterparts, all without affecting predictive performance. Our approach is easy to use and can be readily incorporated into existing neural network models.
Prioritized Training on Points that are Learnable, Worth Learning, and Not Yet Learnt
Authors: Sören Mindermann, Jan Brauner, Muhammed Razzak, Mrinank Sharma, Andreas Kirsch, Winnie Xu, Benedikt Höltgen, Aidan N. Gomez, Adrien Morisot, Sebastian Farquhar, Yarin Gal
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00

Training on web-scale data can take months. But most computation and time is wasted on redundant and noisy points that are already learnt or not learnable. To accelerate training, we introduce Reducible Holdout Loss Selection (RHO-LOSS), a simple but principled technique which selects approximately those points for training that most reduce the model's generalization loss. As a result, RHO-LOSS mitigates the weaknesses of existing data selection methods: techniques from the optimization literature typically select 'hard' (e.g. high loss) points, but such points are often noisy (not learnable) or less task-relevant. Conversely, curriculum learning prioritizes 'easy' points, but such points need not be trained on once learned. In contrast, RHO-LOSS selects points that are learnable, worth learning, and not yet learnt. RHO-LOSS trains in far fewer steps than prior art, improves accuracy, and speeds up training on a wide range of datasets, hyperparameters, and architectures (MLPs, CNNs, and BERT). On the large web-scraped image dataset Clothing-1M, RHO-LOSS trains in 18x fewer steps and reaches 2% higher final accuracy than uniform data shuffling.
Stability of Image-Reconstruction Algorithms
Authors: Pol del Aguila Pla, Sebastian Neumayer, Michael Unser
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Image Reconstruction

Robustness and stability of image-reconstruction algorithms have recently come under scrutiny. Their importance to medical imaging cannot be overstated. We review the known results for the topical variational regularization strategies ($\ell_2$ and $\ell_1$ regularization) and present novel stability results for $\ell_p$-regularized linear inverse problems for $p\in(1,\infty)$. Our results guarantee Lipschitz continuity for small $p$ and H\"{o}lder continuity for larger $p$. They generalize well to the $L_p(\Omega)$ function spaces.
Combining Counterfactuals With Shapley Values To Explain Image Models
Authors: Aditya Lahiri, Kamran Alipour, Ehsan Adeli, Babak Salimi
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)

With the widespread use of sophisticated machine learning models in sensitive applications, understanding their decision-making has become an essential task. Models trained on tabular data have witnessed significant progress in explanations of their underlying decision making processes by virtue of having a small number of discrete features. However, applying these methods to high-dimensional inputs such as images is not a trivial task. Images are composed of pixels at an atomic level and do not carry any interpretability by themselves. In this work, we seek to use annotated high-level interpretable features of images to provide explanations. We leverage the Shapley value framework from Game Theory, which has garnered wide acceptance in general XAI problems. By developing a pipeline to generate counterfactuals and subsequently using it to estimate Shapley values, we obtain contrastive and interpretable explanations with strong axiomatic guarantees.
Learning the Structure of Large Networked Systems Obeying Conservation Laws
Authors: Anirudh Rayas, Rajasekhar Anguluri, Gautam Dasarathy
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00

Many networked systems such as electric networks, the brain, and social networks of opinion dynamics are known to obey conservation laws. Examples of this phenomenon include the Kirchoff laws in electric networks and opinion consensus in social networks. Conservation laws in networked systems may be modeled as balance equations of the form $X = B^{*} Y$, where the sparsity pattern of $B^{*}$ captures the connectivity of the network, and $Y, X \in \mathbb{R}^p$ are vectors of "potentials" and "injected flows" at the nodes respectively. The node potentials $Y$ cause flows across edges and the flows $X$ injected at the nodes are extraneous to the network dynamics. In several practical systems, the network structure is often unknown and needs to be estimated from data. Towards this, one has access to samples of the node potentials $Y$, but only the statistics of the node injections $X$. Motivated by this important problem, we study the estimation of the sparsity structure of the matrix $B^{*}$ from $n$ samples of $Y$ under the assumption that the node injections $X$ follow a Gaussian distribution with a known covariance $\Sigma_X$. We propose a new $\ell_{1}$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator for this problem in the high-dimensional regime where the size of the network $p$ is larger than sample size $n$. We show that this optimization problem is convex in the objective and admits a unique solution. Under a new mutual incoherence condition, we establish sufficient conditions on the triple $(n,p,d)$ for which exact sparsity recovery of $B^{*}$ is possible with high probability; $d$ is the degree of the graph. We also establish guarantees for the recovery of $B^{*}$ in the element-wise maximum, Frobenius, and operator norms. Finally, we complement these theoretical results with experimental validation of the performance of the proposed estimator on synthetic and real-world data.
Classification of ECG based on Hybrid Features using CNNs for Wearable Applications
Authors: Li Xiaolin, Fang Xiang, Rajesh C. Panicker, Barry Cardiff, Deepu John
Date: 2022-06-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Arrhythmia Detection, ECG Classification, Electrocardiography (ECG)

Sudden cardiac death and arrhythmia account for a large percentage of all deaths worldwide. Electrocardiography (ECG) is the most widely used screening tool for cardiovascular diseases. Traditionally, ECG signals are classified manually, requiring experience and great skill, while being time-consuming and prone to error. Thus machine learning algorithms have been widely adopted because of their ability to perform complex data analysis. Features derived from the points of interest in ECG - mainly Q, R, and S, are widely used for arrhythmia detection. In this work, we demonstrate improved performance for ECG classification using hybrid features and three different models, building on a 1-D convolutional neural network (CNN) model that we had proposed in the past. An RR interval features based model proposed in this work achieved an accuracy of 98.98%, which is an improvement over the baseline model. To make the model immune to noise, we updated the model using frequency features and achieved good sustained performance in presence of noise with a slightly lower accuracy of 98.69%. Further, another model combining the frequency features and the RR interval features was developed, which achieved a high accuracy of 99% with good sustained performance in noisy environments. Due to its high accuracy and noise immunity, the proposed model which combines multiple hybrid features, is well suited for ambulatory wearable sensing applications.