pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Parsimonious Argument Annotations for Hate Speech Counter-narratives
Authors: Damian A. Furman, Pablo Torres, Jose A. Rodriguez, Lautaro Martinez, Laura Alonso Alemany, Diego Letzen, Maria Vanina Martinez
Date: 2022-08-01 00:00:00

We present an enrichment of the Hateval corpus of hate speech tweets (Basile et. al 2019) aimed to facilitate automated counter-narrative generation. Comparably to previous work (Chung et. al. 2019), manually written counter-narratives are associated to tweets. However, this information alone seems insufficient to obtain satisfactory language models for counter-narrative generation. That is why we have also annotated tweets with argumentative information based on Wagemanns (2016), that we believe can help in building convincing and effective counter-narratives for hate speech against particular groups. We discuss adequacies and difficulties of this annotation process and present several baselines for automatic detection of the annotated elements. Preliminary results show that automatic annotators perform close to human annotators to detect some aspects of argumentation, while others only reach low or moderate level of inter-annotator agreement.
A Modified PINN Approach for Identifiable Compartmental Models in Epidemiology with Applications to COVID-19
Authors: Haoran Hu, Connor M Kennedy, Panayotis G. Kevrekidis, HongKun Zhang
Date: 2022-08-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Denoising, Epidemiology

A variety of approaches using compartmental models have been used to study the COVID-19 pandemic and the usage of machine learning methods with these models has had particularly notable success. We present here an approach toward analyzing accessible data on Covid-19's U.S. development using a variation of the "Physics Informed Neural Networks" (PINN) which is capable of using the knowledge of the model to aid learning. We illustrate the challenges of using the standard PINN approach, then how with appropriate and novel modifications to the loss function the network can perform well even in our case of incomplete information. Aspects of identifiability of the model parameters are also assessed, as well as methods of denoising available data using a wavelet transform. Finally, we discuss the capability of the neural network methodology to work with models of varying parameter values, as well as a concrete application in estimating how effectively cases are being tested for in a population, providing a ranking of U.S. states by means of their respective testing.
Reduced-order modeling for parameterized large-eddy simulations of atmospheric pollutant dispersion
Authors: Bastien X Nony, Mélanie Rochoux, Thomas Jaravel, Didier Lucor
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: GPR

Mapping near-field pollutant concentration is essential to track accidental toxic plume dispersion in urban areas. By solving a large part of the turbulence spectrum, large-eddy simulations (LES) have the potential to accurately represent pollutant concentration spatial variability. Finding a way to synthesize this large amount of information to improve the accuracy of lower-fidelity operational models (e.g. providing better turbulence closure terms) is particularly appealing. This is a challenge in multi-query contexts, where LES become prohibitively costly to deploy to understand how plume flow and tracer dispersion change with various atmospheric and source parameters. To overcome this issue, we propose a non-intrusive reduced-order model combining proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) to predict LES field statistics of interest associated with tracer concentrations. GPR hyperpararameters are optimized component-by-component through a maximum a posteriori (MAP) procedure informed by POD. We provide a detailed analysis of the reducedorder model performance on a two-dimensional case study corresponding to a turbulent atmospheric boundary-layer flow over a surface-mounted obstacle. We show that near-source concentration heterogeneities upstream of the obstacle require a large number of POD modes to be well captured. We also show that the component-by-component optimization allows to capture the range of spatial scales in the POD modes, especially the shorter concentration patterns in the high-order modes. The reduced-order model predictions remain acceptable if the learning database is made of at least fifty to hundred LES snapshot providing a first estimation of the required budget to move towards more realistic atmospheric dispersion applications.
A Recursive Partitioning Approach for Dynamic Discrete Choice Modeling in High Dimensional Settings
Authors: Ebrahim Barzegary, Hema Yoganarasimhan
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Discrete Choice Models

Dynamic discrete choice models are widely employed to answer substantive and policy questions in settings where individuals' current choices have future implications. However, estimation of these models is often computationally intensive and/or infeasible in high-dimensional settings. Indeed, even specifying the structure for how the utilities/state transitions enter the agent's decision is challenging in high-dimensional settings when we have no guiding theory. In this paper, we present a semi-parametric formulation of dynamic discrete choice models that incorporates a high-dimensional set of state variables, in addition to the standard variables used in a parametric utility function. The high-dimensional variable can include all the variables that are not the main variables of interest but may potentially affect people's choices and must be included in the estimation procedure, i.e., control variables. We present a data-driven recursive partitioning algorithm that reduces the dimensionality of the high-dimensional state space by taking the variation in choices and state transition into account. Researchers can then use the method of their choice to estimate the problem using the discretized state space from the first stage. Our approach can reduce the estimation bias and make estimation feasible at the same time. We present Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate the performance of our method compared to standard estimation methods where we ignore the high-dimensional explanatory variable set.
On the role of benchmarking data sets and simulations in method comparison studies
Authors: Sarah Friedrich, Tim Friede
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Benchmarking

Method comparisons are essential to provide recommendations and guidance for applied researchers, who often have to choose from a plethora of available approaches. While many comparisons exist in the literature, these are often not neutral but favour a novel method. Apart from the choice of design and a proper reporting of the findings, there are different approaches concerning the underlying data for such method comparison studies. Most manuscripts on statistical methodology rely on simulation studies and provide a single real-world data set as an example to motivate and illustrate the methodology investigated. In the context of supervised learning, in contrast, methods are often evaluated using so-called benchmarking data sets, i.e. real-world data that serve as gold standard in the community. Simulation studies, on the other hand, are much less common in this context. The aim of this paper is to investigate differences and similarities between these approaches, to discuss their advantages and disadvantages and ultimately to develop new approaches to the evaluation of methods picking the best of both worlds. To this aim, we borrow ideas from different contexts such as mixed methods research and Clinical Scenario Evaluation.
Viskositas: Viscosity Prediction of Multicomponent Chemical Systems
Authors: Patrick dos Anjos
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Geophysics, Prediction, Relation

Viscosity in the metallurgical and glass industry plays a fundamental role in its production processes, also in the area of geophysics. As its experimental measurement is financially expensive, also in terms of time, several mathematical models were built to provide viscosity results as a function of several variables, such as chemical composition and temperature, in linear and nonlinear models. A database was built in order to produce a nonlinear model by artificial neural networks by variation of hyperparameters to provide reliable predictions of viscosity in relation to chemical systems and temperatures. The model produced named Viskositas demonstrated better statistical evaluations of mean absolute error, standard deviation and coefficient of determination in relation to the test database when compared to different models from literature and 1 commercial model, offering predictions with lower errors, less variability and less generation of outliers.
Concentration inequalities for correlated network-valued processes with applications to community estimation and changepoint analysis
Authors: Sayak Chatterjee, Shirshendu Chatterjee, Soumendu Sundar Mukherjee, Anirban Nath, Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Time Series, Time Series Analysis

Network-valued time series are currently a common form of network data. However, the study of the aggregate behavior of network sequences generated from network-valued stochastic processes is relatively rare. Most of the existing research focuses on the simple setup where the networks are independent (or conditionally independent) across time, and all edges are updated synchronously at each time step. In this paper, we study the concentration properties of the aggregated adjacency matrix and the corresponding Laplacian matrix associated with network sequences generated from lazy network-valued stochastic processes, where edges update asynchronously, and each edge follows a lazy stochastic process for its updates independent of the other edges. We demonstrate the usefulness of these concentration results in proving consistency of standard estimators in community estimation and changepoint estimation problems. We also conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the effect of the laziness parameter, which controls the extent of temporal correlation, on the accuracy of community and changepoint estimation.
Accelerated and interpretable oblique random survival forests
Authors: Byron C. Jaeger, Sawyer Welden, Kristin Lenoir, Jaime L. Speiser, Matthew Segar, Ambarish Pandey, Nicholas M. Pajewski
Date: 2022-08-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Benchmarking, Computational Efficiency, Negation

The oblique random survival forest (RSF) is an ensemble supervised learning method for right-censored outcomes. Trees in the oblique RSF are grown using linear combinations of predictors to create branches, whereas in the standard RSF, a single predictor is used. Oblique RSF ensembles often have higher prediction accuracy than standard RSF ensembles. However, assessing all possible linear combinations of predictors induces significant computational overhead that limits applications to large-scale data sets. In addition, few methods have been developed for interpretation of oblique RSF ensembles, and they remain more difficult to interpret compared to their axis-based counterparts. We introduce a method to increase computational efficiency of the oblique RSF and a method to estimate importance of individual predictor variables with the oblique RSF. Our strategy to reduce computational overhead makes use of Newton-Raphson scoring, a classical optimization technique that we apply to the Cox partial likelihood function within each non-leaf node of decision trees. We estimate the importance of individual predictors for the oblique RSF by negating each coefficient used for the given predictor in linear combinations, and then computing the reduction in out-of-bag accuracy. In general benchmarking experiments, we find that our implementation of the oblique RSF is approximately 450 times faster with equivalent discrimination and superior Brier score compared to existing software for oblique RSFs. We find in simulation studies that 'negation importance' discriminates between relevant and irrelevant predictors more reliably than permutation importance, Shapley additive explanations, and a previously introduced technique to measure variable importance with oblique RSFs based on analysis of variance. Methods introduced in the current study are available in the aorsf R package.
Bounding Counterfactuals under Selection Bias
Authors: Marco Zaffalon, Alessandro Antonucci, Rafael Cabañas, David Huber, Dario Azzimonti
Date: 2022-07-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Selection bias

Causal analysis may be affected by selection bias, which is defined as the systematic exclusion of data from a certain subpopulation. Previous work in this area focused on the derivation of identifiability conditions. We propose instead a first algorithm to address both identifiable and unidentifiable queries. We prove that, in spite of the missingness induced by the selection bias, the likelihood of the available data is unimodal. This enables us to use the causal expectation-maximisation scheme to obtain the values of causal queries in the identifiable case, and to compute bounds otherwise. Experiments demonstrate the approach to be practically viable. Theoretical convergence characterisations are provided.
How UMass-FSD Inadvertently Leverages Temporal Bias
Authors: Dominik Wurzer, Yumeng Qin
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00

First Story Detection describes the task of identifying new events in a stream of documents. The UMass-FSD system is known for its strong performance in First Story Detection competitions. Recently, it has been frequently used as a high accuracy baseline in research publications. We are the first to discover that UMass-FSD inadvertently leverages temporal bias. Interestingly, the discovered bias contrasts previously known biases and performs significantly better. Our analysis reveals an increased contribution of temporally distant documents, resulting from an unusual way of handling incremental term statistics. We show that this form of temporal bias is also applicable to other well-known First Story Detection systems, where it improves the detection accuracy. To provide a more generalizable conclusion and demonstrate that the observed bias is not only an artefact of a particular implementation, we present a model that intentionally leverages a bias on temporal distance. Our model significantly improves the detection effectiveness of state-of-the-art First Story Detection systems.
Parameterizing Kterm Hashing
Authors: Dominik Wurzer, Yumeng Qin
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Novelty Detection

Kterm Hashing provides an innovative approach to novelty detection on massive data streams. Previous research focused on maximizing the efficiency of Kterm Hashing and succeeded in scaling First Story Detection to Twitter-size data stream without sacrificing detection accuracy. In this paper, we focus on improving the effectiveness of Kterm Hashing. Traditionally, all kterms are considered as equally important when calculating a document's degree of novelty with respect to the past. We believe that certain kterms are more important than others and hypothesize that uniform kterm weights are sub-optimal for determining novelty in data streams. To validate our hypothesis, we parameterize Kterm Hashing by assigning weights to kterms based on their characteristics. Our experiments apply Kterm Hashing in a First Story Detection setting and reveal that parameterized Kterm Hashing can surpass state-of-the-art detection accuracy and significantly outperform the uniformly weighted approach.
Geometric Interaction Augmented Graph Collaborative Filtering
Authors: Yiding Zhang, Chaozhuo Li, Senzhang Wang, Jianxun Lian, Xing Xie
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Collaborative Filtering

Graph-based collaborative filtering is capable of capturing the essential and abundant collaborative signals from the high-order interactions, and thus received increasingly research interests. Conventionally, the embeddings of users and items are defined in the Euclidean spaces, along with the propagation on the interaction graphs. Meanwhile, recent works point out that the high-order interactions naturally form up the tree-likeness structures, which the hyperbolic models thrive on. However, the interaction graphs inherently exhibit the hybrid and nested geometric characteristics, while the existing single geometry-based models are inadequate to fully capture such sophisticated topological patterns. In this paper, we propose to model the user-item interactions in a hybrid geometric space, in which the merits of Euclidean and hyperbolic spaces are simultaneously enjoyed to learn expressive representations. Experimental results on public datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposal.
Multifractal cross-correlations of bitcoin and ether trading characteristics in the post-COVID-19 time
Authors: Marcin Wątorek, Jarosław Kwapień, Stanisław Drożdż
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Time Series, Time Series Analysis

Unlike price fluctuations, the temporal structure of cryptocurrency trading has seldom been a subject of systematic study. In order to fill this gap, we analyse detrended correlations of the price returns, the average number of trades in time unit, and the traded volume based on high-frequency data representing two major cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ether. We apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, which is considered the most reliable method for identifying nonlinear correlations in time series. We find that all the quantities considered in our study show an unambiguous multifractal structure from both the univariate (auto-correlation) and bivariate (cross-correlation) perspectives. We looked at the bitcoin--ether cross-correlations in simultaneously recorded signals, as well as in time-lagged signals, in which a time series for one of the cryptocurrencies is shifted with respect to the other. Such a shift suppresses the cross-correlations partially for short time scales, but does not remove them completely. We did not observe any qualitative asymmetry in the results for the two choices of a leading asset. The cross-correlations for the simultaneous and lagged time series became the same in magnitude for the sufficiently long scales.
Sensor Deployment and Link Analysis in Satellite IoT Systems for Wildfire Detection
Authors: How-Hang Liu, Ronald Y. Chang, Yi-Ying Chen, I-Kang Fu, H. Vincent Poor
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00

Climate change has been identified as one of the most critical threats to human civilization and sustainability. Wildfires, which produce huge amounts of carbon emission, are both drivers and results of climate change. An early and timely wildfire detection system can constrain fires to short and small ones and yield significant carbon reduction. In this paper, we propose to use ground sensor deployment and satellite Internet of Things (IoT) technologies for wildfire detection by taking advantage of satellites' ubiquitous global coverage. We first develop an optimal IoT sensor placement strategy based on fire ignition and detection models. Then, we analyze the uplink satellite communication budget and the bandwidth required for wildfire detection under the narrowband IoT (NB-IoT) radio interface. Finally, we conduct simulations on the California wildfire database and quantify the potential economical benefits by factoring in carbon emission reductions and sensor/bandwidth costs.
Signal corrector and decoupling estimations for UAV control
Authors: Xinhua Wang
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Position

For a class of uncertain systems with large-error sensing, the low-order stable signal corrector and observer are presented for signal correction and uncertainty estimation according to completely decoupling estimation. The signal corrector can reject the large error in global position sensing, and system uncertainty can be estimated by the observer, even the existence of stochastic non-Gaussian noise. The corrector and observer are applied to a UAV navigation and control for large-error corrections in position/attitude angle and the uncertainties estimation in the UAV flight dynamics. The control laws are designed according to the correction-estimation results. Finally, experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Learning-based Symbolic Abstractions for Nonlinear Control Systems
Authors: Kazumune Hashimoto, Adnane Saoud, Masako Kishida, Toshimitsu Ushio, Dimos Dimarogonas
Date: 2020-04-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Safe Exploration

Symbolic models or abstractions are known to be powerful tools for the control design of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) with logic specifications. In this paper, we investigate a novel learning-based approach to the construction of symbolic models for nonlinear control systems. In particular, the symbolic model is constructed based on learning the un-modeled part of the dynamics from training data based on state-space exploration, and the concept of an alternating simulation relation that represents behavioral relationships with respect to the original control system. Moreover, we aim at achieving safe exploration, meaning that the trajectory of the system is guaranteed to be in a safe region for all times while collecting the training data. In addition, we provide some techniques to reduce the computational load, in terms of memory and computation time, of constructing the symbolic models and the safety controller synthesis, so as to make our approach practical. Finally, a numerical simulation illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Control theoretically explainable application of autoencoder methods to fault detection in nonlinear dynamic systems
Authors: Linlin Li, Steven X. Ding, Ketian Liang, Zhiwen Chen, Ting Xue
Date: 2022-08-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Anomaly Detection, Fault Detection, Representation Learning

This paper is dedicated to control theoretically explainable application of autoencoders to optimal fault detection in nonlinear dynamic systems. Autoencoder-based learning is a standard machine learning method and widely applied for fault (anomaly) detection and classification. In the context of representation learning, the so-called latent (hidden) variable plays an important role towards an optimal fault detection. In ideal case, the latent variable should be a minimal sufficient statistic. The existing autoencoder-based fault detection schemes are mainly application-oriented, and few efforts have been devoted to optimal autoencoder-based fault detection and explainable applications. The main objective of our work is to establish a framework for learning autoencoder-based optimal fault detection in nonlinear dynamic systems. To this aim, a process model form for dynamic systems is firstly introduced with the aid of control theory, which also leads to a clear system interpretation of the latent variable. The major efforts are made on the development of a control theoretic solution to the optimal fault detection problem, in which an analog concept to minimal sufficient statistic, the so-called lossless information compression, is introduced and proven for dynamic systems and fault detection specifications. In particular, the existence conditions for such a latent variable are derived, based on which a loss function and further a learning algorithm are developed. This learning algorithm enables optimally training of autoencoders to achieve an optimal fault detection in nonlinear dynamic systems. A case study on three-tank system is given at the end of this paper to illustrate the capability of the proposed autoencoder-based fault detection and to explain the essential role of the latent variable in the proposed fault detection system.