pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Graph Neural Networks for Improved El Niño Forecasting
Authors: Salva Rühling Cachay, Emma Erickson, Arthur Fender C. Bucker, Ernest Pokropek, Willa Potosnak, Salomey Osei, Björn Lütjens
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Learning, Multivariate Time Series Forecasting, Spatio-Temporal Forecasting, Time Series Forecasting

Deep learning-based models have recently outperformed state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting models, such as for predicting El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, current deep learning models are based on convolutional neural networks which are difficult to interpret and can fail to model large-scale atmospheric patterns called teleconnections. Hence, we propose the application of spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to forecast ENSO at long lead times, finer granularity and improved predictive skill than current state-of-the-art methods. The explicit modeling of information flow via edges may also allow for more interpretable forecasts. Preliminary results are promising and outperform state-of-the art systems for projections 1 and 3 months ahead.
Forecast with Forecasts: Diversity Matters
Authors: Yanfei Kang, Wei Cao, Fotios Petropoulos, Feng Li
Date: 2020-12-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Computational Efficiency, Diversity, Meta-Learning, Prediction Intervals, Time Series, Time Series Analysis

Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series features for forecast combination has flourished. Although this idea has been proved to be beneficial in several forecasting competitions, it may not be practical in many situations. For example, the task of selecting appropriate features to build forecasting models is often challenging. Even if there was an acceptable way to define the features, existing features are estimated based on the historical patterns, which are likely to change in the future. Other times, the estimation of the features is infeasible due to limited historical data. In this work, we suggest a change of focus from the historical data to the produced forecasts to extract features. We use out-of-sample forecasts to obtain weights for forecast combinations by amplifying the diversity of the pool of methods being combined. A rich set of time series is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Experimental results show that our diversity-based forecast combination framework not only simplifies the modelling process but also achieves superior forecasting performance in terms of both point forecasts and prediction intervals. The value of our proposition lies on its simplicity, transparency, and computational efficiency, elements that are important from both an optimisation and a decision analysis perspective.
Online learning with dynamics: A minimax perspective
Authors: Kush Bhatia, Karthik Sridharan
Date: 2020-12-03 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2020 12
Tasks: counterfactual

We study the problem of online learning with dynamics, where a learner interacts with a stateful environment over multiple rounds. In each round of the interaction, the learner selects a policy to deploy and incurs a cost that depends on both the chosen policy and current state of the world. The state-evolution dynamics and the costs are allowed to be time-varying, in a possibly adversarial way. In this setting, we study the problem of minimizing policy regret and provide non-constructive upper bounds on the minimax rate for the problem. Our main results provide sufficient conditions for online learnability for this setup with corresponding rates. The rates are characterized by 1) a complexity term capturing the expressiveness of the underlying policy class under the dynamics of state change, and 2) a dynamics stability term measuring the deviation of the instantaneous loss from a certain counterfactual loss. Further, we provide matching lower bounds which show that both the complexity terms are indeed necessary. Our approach provides a unifying analysis that recovers regret bounds for several well studied problems including online learning with memory, online control of linear quadratic regulators, online Markov decision processes, and tracking adversarial targets. In addition, we show how our tools help obtain tight regret bounds for a new problems (with non-linear dynamics and non-convex losses) for which such bounds were not known prior to our work.
Neural Contextual Bandits with Deep Representation and Shallow Exploration
Authors: Pan Xu, Zheng Wen, Handong Zhao, Quanquan Gu
Date: 2020-12-03 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2021 12
Tasks: Multi-Armed Bandits, Representation Learning

We study a general class of contextual bandits, where each context-action pair is associated with a raw feature vector, but the reward generating function is unknown. We propose a novel learning algorithm that transforms the raw feature vector using the last hidden layer of a deep ReLU neural network (deep representation learning), and uses an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach to explore in the last linear layer (shallow exploration). We prove that under standard assumptions, our proposed algorithm achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ finite-time regret, where $T$ is the learning time horizon. Compared with existing neural contextual bandit algorithms, our approach is computationally much more efficient since it only needs to explore in the last layer of the deep neural network.
Asymptotic convergence rate of Dropout on shallow linear neural networks
Authors: Albert Senen-Cerda, Jaron Sanders
Date: 2020-12-01 00:00:00

We analyze the convergence rate of gradient flows on objective functions induced by Dropout and Dropconnect, when applying them to shallow linear Neural Networks (NNs) - which can also be viewed as doing matrix factorization using a particular regularizer. Dropout algorithms such as these are thus regularization techniques that use 0,1-valued random variables to filter weights during training in order to avoid coadaptation of features. By leveraging a recent result on nonconvex optimization and conducting a careful analysis of the set of minimizers as well as the Hessian of the loss function, we are able to obtain (i) a local convergence proof of the gradient flow and (ii) a bound on the convergence rate that depends on the data, the dropout probability, and the width of the NN. Finally, we compare this theoretical bound to numerical simulations, which are in qualitative agreement with the convergence bound and match it when starting sufficiently close to a minimizer.
Distributed Machine Learning for Wireless Communication Networks: Techniques, Architectures, and Applications
Authors: S. Hu, X. Chen, W. Ni, E. Hossain, X. Wang
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00
Tasks: BIG-bench Machine Learning, Cloud Computing, Federated Learning, Management, Survey

Distributed machine learning (DML) techniques, such as federated learning, partitioned learning, and distributed reinforcement learning, have been increasingly applied to wireless communications. This is due to improved capabilities of terminal devices, explosively growing data volume, congestion in the radio interfaces, and increasing concern of data privacy. The unique features of wireless systems, such as large scale, geographically dispersed deployment, user mobility, and massive amount of data, give rise to new challenges in the design of DML techniques. There is a clear gap in the existing literature in that the DML techniques are yet to be systematically reviewed for their applicability to wireless systems. This survey bridges the gap by providing a contemporary and comprehensive survey of DML techniques with a focus on wireless networks. Specifically, we review the latest applications of DML in power control, spectrum management, user association, and edge cloud computing. The optimality, scalability, convergence rate, computation cost, and communication overhead of DML are analyzed. We also discuss the potential adversarial attacks faced by DML applications, and describe state-of-the-art countermeasures to preserve privacy and security. Last but not least, we point out a number of key issues yet to be addressed, and collate potentially interesting and challenging topics for future research.
Sample Complexity of Policy Gradient Finding Second-Order Stationary Points
Authors: Long Yang, Qian Zheng, Gang Pan
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Policy Gradient Methods, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

The goal of policy-based reinforcement learning (RL) is to search the maximal point of its objective. However, due to the inherent non-concavity of its objective, convergence to a first-order stationary point (FOSP) can not guarantee the policy gradient methods finding a maximal point. A FOSP can be a minimal or even a saddle point, which is undesirable for RL. Fortunately, if all the saddle points are \emph{strict}, all the second-order stationary points (SOSP) are exactly equivalent to local maxima. Instead of FOSP, we consider SOSP as the convergence criteria to character the sample complexity of policy gradient. Our result shows that policy gradient converges to an $(\epsilon,\sqrt{\epsilon\chi})$-SOSP with probability at least $1-\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\delta)$ after the total cost of $\mathcal{O}\left(\dfrac{\epsilon^{-\frac{9}{2}}}{(1-\gamma)\sqrt\chi}\log\dfrac{1}{\delta}\right)$, where $\gamma\in(0,1)$. Our result improves the state-of-the-art result significantly where it requires $\mathcal{O}\left(\dfrac{\epsilon^{-9}\chi^{\frac{3}{2}}}{\delta}\log\dfrac{1}{\epsilon\chi}\right)$. Our analysis is based on the key idea that decomposes the parameter space $\mathbb{R}^p$ into three non-intersected regions: non-stationary point, saddle point, and local optimal region, then making a local improvement of the objective of RL in each region. This technique can be potentially generalized to extensive policy gradient methods.
Instance-Sensitive Algorithms for Pure Exploration in Multinomial Logit Bandit
Authors: Nikolai Karpov, Qin Zhang
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00

Motivated by real-world applications such as fast fashion retailing and online advertising, the Multinomial Logit Bandit (MNL-bandit) is a popular model in online learning and operations research, and has attracted much attention in the past decade. However, it is a bit surprising that pure exploration, a basic problem in bandit theory, has not been well studied in MNL-bandit so far. In this paper we give efficient algorithms for pure exploration in MNL-bandit. Our algorithms achieve instance-sensitive pull complexities. We also complement the upper bounds by an almost matching lower bound.
DecisiveNets: Training Deep Associative Memories to Solve Complex Machine Learning Problems
Authors: Vincent Gripon, Carlos Lassance, Ghouthi Boukli Hacene
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00
Tasks: BIG-bench Machine Learning

Learning deep representations to solve complex machine learning tasks has become the prominent trend in the past few years. Indeed, Deep Neural Networks are now the golden standard in domains as various as computer vision, natural language processing or even playing combinatorial games. However, problematic limitations are hidden behind this surprising universal capability. Among other things, explainability of the decisions is a major concern, especially since deep neural networks are made up of a very large number of trainable parameters. Moreover, computational complexity can quickly become a problem, especially in contexts constrained by real time or limited resources. Therefore, understanding how information is stored and the impact this storage can have on the system remains a major and open issue. In this chapter, we introduce a method to transform deep neural network models into deep associative memories, with simpler, more explicable and less expensive operations. We show through experiments that these transformations can be done without penalty on predictive performance. The resulting deep associative memories are excellent candidates for artificial intelligence that is easier to theorize and manipulate.
Meshless physics-informed deep learning method for three-dimensional solid mechanics
Authors: Diab W. Abueidda, Qiyue Lu, Seid Koric
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00

Deep learning and the collocation method are merged and used to solve partial differential equations describing structures' deformation. We have considered different types of materials: linear elasticity, hyperelasticity (neo-Hookean) with large deformation, and von Mises plasticity with isotropic and kinematic hardening. The performance of this deep collocation method (DCM) depends on the architecture of the neural network and the corresponding hyperparameters. The presented DCM is meshfree and avoids any spatial discretization, which is usually needed for the finite element method (FEM). We show that the DCM can capture the response qualitatively and quantitatively, without the need for any data generation using other numerical methods such as the FEM. Data generation usually is the main bottleneck in most data-driven models. The deep learning model is trained to learn the model's parameters yielding accurate approximate solutions. Once the model is properly trained, solutions can be obtained almost instantly at any point in the domain, given its spatial coordinates. Therefore, the deep collocation method is potentially a promising standalone technique to solve partial differential equations involved in the deformation of materials and structural systems as well as other physical phenomena.
Value Alignment Verification
Authors: Daniel S. Brown, Jordan Schneider, Anca D. Dragan, Scott Niekum
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Autonomous Driving

As humans interact with autonomous agents to perform increasingly complicated, potentially risky tasks, it is important to be able to efficiently evaluate an agent's performance and correctness. In this paper we formalize and theoretically analyze the problem of efficient value alignment verification: how to efficiently test whether the behavior of another agent is aligned with a human's values. The goal is to construct a kind of "driver's test" that a human can give to any agent which will verify value alignment via a minimal number of queries. We study alignment verification problems with both idealized humans that have an explicit reward function as well as problems where they have implicit values. We analyze verification of exact value alignment for rational agents and propose and analyze heuristic and approximate value alignment verification tests in a wide range of gridworlds and a continuous autonomous driving domain. Finally, we prove that there exist sufficient conditions such that we can verify exact and approximate alignment across an infinite set of test environments via a constant-query-complexity alignment test.
On Variational Inference for User Modeling in Attribute-Driven Collaborative Filtering
Authors: Venugopal Mani, Ramasubramanian Balasubramanian, Sushant Kumar, Abhinav Mathur, Kannan Achan
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Attribute, BIG-bench Machine Learning, Causal Inference, Collaborative Filtering, Recommendation Systems, Variational Inference

Recommender Systems have become an integral part of online e-Commerce platforms, driving customer engagement and revenue. Most popular recommender systems attempt to learn from users' past engagement data to understand behavioral traits of users and use that to predict future behavior. In this work, we present an approach to use causal inference to learn user-attribute affinities through temporal contexts. We formulate this objective as a Probabilistic Machine Learning problem and apply a variational inference based method to estimate the model parameters. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method on the next attribute prediction task on two real world datasets and show that it outperforms standard baseline methods.
Margin-Based Transfer Bounds for Meta Learning with Deep Feature Embedding
Authors: Jiechao Guan, Zhiwu Lu, Tao Xiang, Timothy Hospedales
Date: 2020-12-02 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, General Classification, Learning Theory, Meta-Learning

By transferring knowledge learned from seen/previous tasks, meta learning aims to generalize well to unseen/future tasks. Existing meta-learning approaches have shown promising empirical performance on various multiclass classification problems, but few provide theoretical analysis on the classifiers' generalization ability on future tasks. In this paper, under the assumption that all classification tasks are sampled from the same meta-distribution, we leverage margin theory and statistical learning theory to establish three margin-based transfer bounds for meta-learning based multiclass classification (MLMC). These bounds reveal that the expected error of a given classification algorithm for a future task can be estimated with the average empirical error on a finite number of previous tasks, uniformly over a class of preprocessing feature maps/deep neural networks (i.e. deep feature embeddings). To validate these bounds, instead of the commonly-used cross-entropy loss, a multi-margin loss is employed to train a number of representative MLMC models. Experiments on three benchmarks show that these margin-based models still achieve competitive performance, validating the practical value of our margin-based theoretical analysis.
What Makes a Star Teacher? A Hierarchical BERT Model for Evaluating Teacher's Performance in Online Education
Authors: Wen Wang, Honglei Zhuang, Mi Zhou, Hanyu Liu, Beibei Li
Date: 2020-12-03 00:00:00

Education has a significant impact on both society and personal life. With the development of technology, online education has been growing rapidly over the past decade. While there are several online education studies on student behavior analysis, the course concept mining, and course recommendations (Feng, Tang, and Liu 2019; Pan et al. 2017), there is little research on evaluating teachers' performance in online education. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study to understand and effectively predict teachers' performance using the subtitles of 1,085 online courses. Our model-free analysis shows that teachers' verbal cues (e.g., question strategy, emotional appealing, and hedging) and their course structure design are both significantly correlated with teachers' performance evaluation. Based on these insights, we then propose a hierarchical course BERT model to predict teachers' performance in online education. Our proposed model can capture the hierarchical structure within each course as well as the deep semantic features extracted from the course content. Experiment results show that our proposed method achieves significant gain over several state-of-the-art methods. Our study provides a significant social impact in helping teachers improve their teaching style and enhance their instructional material design for more effective online teaching in the future.
Deep Spectral CNN for Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy
Authors: Juan Castorena, Diane Oyen, Ann Ollila, Carey Legget, Nina Lanza
Date: 2020-12-03 00:00:00

This work proposes a spectral convolutional neural network (CNN) operating on laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) signals to learn to (1) disentangle spectral signals from the sources of sensor uncertainty (i.e., pre-process) and (2) get qualitative and quantitative measures of chemical content of a sample given a spectral signal (i.e., calibrate). Once the spectral CNN is trained, it can accomplish either task through a single feed-forward pass, with real-time benefits and without any additional side information requirements including dark current, system response, temperature and detector-to-target range. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing approaches used by the Mars Science Lab for pre-processing and calibration for remote sensing observations from the Mars rover, 'Curiosity'.
ResPerfNet: Deep Residual Learning for Regressional Performance Modeling of Deep Neural Networks
Authors: Chuan-Chi Wang, Ying-Chiao Liao, Chia-Heng Tu, Ming-Chang Kao, Wen-Yew Liang, Shih-Hao Hung
Date: 2020-12-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Learning

The rapid advancements of computing technology facilitate the development of diverse deep learning applications. Unfortunately, the efficiency of parallel computing infrastructures varies widely with neural network models, which hinders the exploration of the design space to find high-performance neural network architectures on specific computing platforms for a given application. To address such a challenge, we propose a deep learning-based method, ResPerfNet, which trains a residual neural network with representative datasets obtained on the target platform to predict the performance for a deep neural network. Our experimental results show that ResPerfNet can accurately predict the execution time of individual neural network layers and full network models on a variety of platforms. In particular, ResPerfNet achieves 8.4% of mean absolute percentage error for LeNet, AlexNet and VGG16 on the NVIDIA GTX 1080Ti, which is substantially lower than the previously published works.
Cross-Loss Influence Functions to Explain Deep Network Representations
Authors: Andrew Silva, Rohit Chopra, Matthew Gombolay
Date: 2020-12-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Language Modelling, Self-Supervised Learning

As machine learning is increasingly deployed in the real world, it is paramount that we develop the tools necessary to analyze the decision-making of the models we train and deploy to end-users. Recently, researchers have shown that influence functions, a statistical measure of sample impact, can approximate the effects of training samples on classification accuracy for deep neural networks. However, this prior work only applies to supervised learning, where training and testing share an objective function. No approaches currently exist for estimating the influence of unsupervised training examples for deep learning models. To bring explainability to unsupervised and semi-supervised training regimes, we derive the first theoretical and empirical demonstration that influence functions can be extended to handle mismatched training and testing (i.e., "cross-loss") settings. Our formulation enables us to compute the influence in an unsupervised learning setup, explain cluster memberships, and identify and augment biases in language models. Our experiments show that our cross-loss influence estimates even exceed matched-objective influence estimation relative to ground-truth sample impact.
FenceBox: A Platform for Defeating Adversarial Examples with Data Augmentation Techniques
Authors: Han Qiu, Yi Zeng, Tianwei Zhang, Yong Jiang, Meikang Qiu
Date: 2020-12-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Adversarial Attack, Data Augmentation

It is extensively studied that Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to Adversarial Examples (AEs). With more and more advanced adversarial attack methods have been developed, a quantity of corresponding defense solutions were designed to enhance the robustness of DNN models. It has become a popularity to leverage data augmentation techniques to preprocess input samples before inference to remove adversarial perturbations. By obfuscating the gradients of DNN models, these approaches can defeat a considerable number of conventional attacks. Unfortunately, advanced gradient-based attack techniques (e.g., BPDA and EOT) were introduced to invalidate these preprocessing effects. In this paper, we present FenceBox, a comprehensive framework to defeat various kinds of adversarial attacks. FenceBox is equipped with 15 data augmentation methods from three different categories. We comprehensively evaluated that these methods can effectively mitigate various adversarial attacks. FenceBox also provides APIs for users to easily deploy the defense over their models in different modes: they can either select an arbitrary preprocessing method, or a combination of functions for a better robustness guarantee, even under advanced adversarial attacks. We open-source FenceBox, and expect it can be used as a standard toolkit to facilitate the research of adversarial attacks and defenses.