pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Chebyshev Greeks: Smoothing Gamma without Bias
Authors: Andrea Maran, Andrea Pallavicini, Stefano Scoleri
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00

The computation of Greeks is a fundamental task for risk managing of financial instruments. The standard approach to their numerical evaluation is via finite differences. Most exotic derivatives are priced via Monte Carlo simulation: in these cases, it is hard to find a fast and accurate approximation of Greeks, mainly because of the need of a tradeoff between bias and variance. Recent improvements in Greeks computation, such as Adjoint Algorithmic Differentiation, are unfortunately uneffective on second order Greeks (such as Gamma), which are plagued by the most significant instabilities, so that a viable alternative to standard finite differences is still lacking. We apply Chebyshev interpolation techniques to the computation of spot Greeks, showing how to improve the stability of finite difference Greeks of arbitrary order, in a simple and general way. The increased performance of the proposed technique is analyzed for a number of real payoffs commonly traded by financial institutions.
More stochastic expansions for the pricing of vanilla options with cash dividends
Authors: Fabien Le Floc'h
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00

There is no exact closed form formula for pricing of European options with discrete cash dividends under the model where the underlying asset price follows a piecewise lognormal process with jumps at dividend ex-dates. This paper presents alternative expansions based on the technique of Etore and Gobet, leading to more robust first, second and third-order expansions across the range of strikes and the range of dividend dates.
Pricing American options with the Runge-Kutta-Legendre finite difference scheme
Authors: Fabien Le Floc'h
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00

This paper presents the Runge-Kutta-Legendre finite difference scheme, allowing for an additional shift in its polynomial representation. A short presentation of the stability region, comparatively to the Runge-Kutta-Chebyshev scheme follows. We then explore the problem of pricing American options with the Runge-Kutta-Legendre scheme under the one factor Black-Scholes and the two factor Heston stochastic volatility models, as well as the pricing of butterfly spread and digital options under the uncertain volatility model, where a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation needs to be solved. We explore the order of convergence in these problems, as well as the option greeks stability, compared to the literature and popular schemes such as Crank-Nicolson, with Rannacher time-stepping.
From Bachelier to Dupire via Optimal Transport
Authors: Mathias Beiglböck, Gudmund Pammer, Walter Schachermayer
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00

Famously mathematical finance was started by Bachelier in his 1900 PhD thesis where - among many other achievements - he also provides a formal derivation of the Kolmogorov forward equation. This forms also the basis for Dupire's (again formal) solution to the problem of finding an arbitrage free model calibrated to the volatility surface. The later result has rigorous counterparts in the theorems of Kellerer and Lowther. In this survey article we revisit these hallmarks of stochastic finance, highlighting the role played by some optimal transport results in this context.
Portfolio Allocation under Asymmetric Dependence in Asset Returns using Local Gaussian Correlations
Authors: Anders D. Sleire, Bård Støve, Håkon Otneim, Geir Drage Berentsen, Dag Tjøstheim, Sverre Hauso Haugen
Date: 2021-06-03 00:00:00
Tasks: Portfolio Optimization

It is well known that there are asymmetric dependence structures between financial returns. In this paper we use a new nonparametric measure of local dependence, the local Gaussian correlation, to improve portfolio allocation. We extend the classical mean-variance framework, and show that the portfolio optimization is straightforward using our new approach, only relying on a tuning parameter (the bandwidth). The new method is shown to outperform the equally weighted (1/N) portfolio and the classical Markowitz portfolio for monthly asset returns data.
Training Data Subset Selection for Regression with Controlled Generalization Error
Authors: Durga Sivasubramanian, Rishabh Iyer, Ganesh Ramakrishnan, Abir De
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: regression

Data subset selection from a large number of training instances has been a successful approach toward efficient and cost-effective machine learning. However, models trained on a smaller subset may show poor generalization ability. In this paper, our goal is to design an algorithm for selecting a subset of the training data, so that the model can be trained quickly, without significantly sacrificing on accuracy. More specifically, we focus on data subset selection for L2 regularized regression problems and provide a novel problem formulation which seeks to minimize the training loss with respect to both the trainable parameters and the subset of training data, subject to error bounds on the validation set. We tackle this problem using several technical innovations. First, we represent this problem with simplified constraints using the dual of the original training problem and show that the objective of this new representation is a monotone and alpha-submodular function, for a wide variety of modeling choices. Such properties lead us to develop SELCON, an efficient majorization-minimization algorithm for data subset selection, that admits an approximation guarantee even when the training provides an imperfect estimate of the trained model. Finally, our experiments on several datasets show that SELCON trades off accuracy and efficiency more effectively than the current state-of-the-art.
Approximate Bayesian Computation with Path Signatures
Authors: Joel Dyer, Patrick Cannon, Sebastian M Schmon
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Time Series, Time Series Analysis

Simulation models often lack tractable likelihood functions, making likelihood-free inference methods indispensable. Approximate Bayesian computation generates likelihood-free posterior samples by comparing simulated and observed data through some distance measure, but existing approaches are often poorly suited to time series simulators, for example due to an independent and identically distributed data assumption. In this paper, we propose to use path signatures in approximate Bayesian computation to handle the sequential nature of time series. We provide theoretical guarantees on the resultant posteriors and demonstrate competitive Bayesian parameter inference for simulators generating univariate, multivariate, irregularly spaced, and even non-Euclidean sequences.
The SKIM-FA Kernel: High-Dimensional Variable Selection and Nonlinear Interaction Discovery in Linear Time
Authors: Raj Agrawal, Tamara Broderick
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Gaussian Processes, Variable Selection

Many scientific problems require identifying a small set of covariates that are associated with a target response and estimating their effects. Often, these effects are nonlinear and include interactions, so linear and additive methods can lead to poor estimation and variable selection. Unfortunately, methods that simultaneously express sparsity, nonlinearity, and interactions are computationally intractable -- with runtime at least quadratic in the number of covariates, and often worse. In the present work, we solve this computational bottleneck. We show that suitable interaction models have a kernel representation, namely there exists a "kernel trick" to perform variable selection and estimation in $O$(# covariates) time. Our resulting fit corresponds to a sparse orthogonal decomposition of the regression function in a Hilbert space (i.e., a functional ANOVA decomposition), where interaction effects represent all variation that cannot be explained by lower-order effects. On a variety of synthetic and real data sets, our approach outperforms existing methods used for large, high-dimensional data sets while remaining competitive (or being orders of magnitude faster) in runtime.
Learning Stochastic Majority Votes by Minimizing a PAC-Bayes Generalization Bound
Authors: Valentina Zantedeschi, Paul Viallard, Emilie Morvant, Rémi Emonet, Amaury Habrard, Pascal Germain, Benjamin Guedj
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2021 12
Tasks: Generalization Bounds

We investigate a stochastic counterpart of majority votes over finite ensembles of classifiers, and study its generalization properties. While our approach holds for arbitrary distributions, we instantiate it with Dirichlet distributions: this allows for a closed-form and differentiable expression for the expected risk, which then turns the generalization bound into a tractable training objective. The resulting stochastic majority vote learning algorithm achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and benefits from (non-vacuous) tight generalization bounds, in a series of numerical experiments when compared to competing algorithms which also minimize PAC-Bayes objectives -- both with uninformed (data-independent) and informed (data-dependent) priors.
Bounds on Causal Effects and Application to High Dimensional Data
Authors: Ang Li, Judea Pearl
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Dimensionality Reduction, Vocal Bursts Intensity Prediction

This paper addresses the problem of estimating causal effects when adjustment variables in the back-door or front-door criterion are partially observed. For such scenarios, we derive bounds on the causal effects by solving two non-linear optimization problems, and demonstrate that the bounds are sufficient. Using this optimization method, we propose a framework for dimensionality reduction that allows one to trade bias for estimation power, and demonstrate its performance using simulation studies.
Standardisation-function Kernel Stein Discrepancy: A Unifying View on Kernel Stein Discrepancy Tests for Goodness-of-fit
Authors: Wenkai Xu
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00

Non-parametric goodness-of-fit testing procedures based on kernel Stein discrepancies (KSD) are promising approaches to validate general unnormalised distributions in various scenarios. Existing works focused on studying kernel choices to boost test performances. However, the choices of (non-unique) Stein operators also have considerable effect on the test performances. Inspired by the standardisation technique that was originally developed to better derive approximation properties for normal distributions, we present a unifying framework, called standardisation-function kernel Stein discrepancy (Sf-KSD), to study different Stein operators in KSD-based tests for goodness-of-fit. We derive explicitly how the proposed framework relates to existing KSD-based tests and show that Sf-KSD can be used as a guide to develop novel kernel-based non-parametric tests on complex data scenarios, e.g. truncated distributions or compositional data. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed tests control type-I error well and achieve higher test power than existing approaches.
Exploring the Representational Power of Graph Autoencoder
Authors: Maroun Haddad, Mohamed Bouguessa
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Graph Embedding, Graph Learning, Representation Learning

While representation learning has yielded a great success on many graph learning tasks, there is little understanding behind the structures that are being captured by these embeddings. For example, we wonder if the topological features, such as the Triangle Count, the Degree of the node and other centrality measures are concretely encoded in the embeddings. Furthermore, we ask if the presence of these structures in the embeddings is necessary for a better performance on the downstream tasks, such as clustering and classification. To address these questions, we conduct an extensive empirical study over three classes of unsupervised graph embedding models and seven different variants of Graph Autoencoders. Our results show that five topological features: the Degree, the Local Clustering Score, the Betweenness Centrality, the Eigenvector Centrality, and Triangle Count are concretely preserved in the first layer of the graph autoencoder that employs the SUM aggregation rule, under the condition that the model preserves the second-order proximity. We supplement further evidence for the presence of these features by revealing a hierarchy in the distribution of the topological features in the embeddings of the aforementioned model. We also show that a model with such properties can outperform other models on certain downstream tasks, especially when the preserved features are relevant to the task at hand. Finally, we evaluate the suitability of our findings through a test case study related to social influence prediction.
Q-Learning Lagrange Policies for Multi-Action Restless Bandits
Authors: Jackson A. Killian, Arpita Biswas, Sanket Shah, Milind Tambe
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00
Tasks: Multi-Armed Bandits, Q-Learning

Multi-action restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) are a powerful framework for constrained resource allocation in which $N$ independent processes are managed. However, previous work only study the offline setting where problem dynamics are known. We address this restrictive assumption, designing the first algorithms for learning good policies for Multi-action RMABs online using combinations of Lagrangian relaxation and Q-learning. Our first approach, MAIQL, extends a method for Q-learning the Whittle index in binary-action RMABs to the multi-action setting. We derive a generalized update rule and convergence proof and establish that, under standard assumptions, MAIQL converges to the asymptotically optimal multi-action RMAB policy as $t\rightarrow{}\infty$. However, MAIQL relies on learning Q-functions and indexes on two timescales which leads to slow convergence and requires problem structure to perform well. Thus, we design a second algorithm, LPQL, which learns the well-performing and more general Lagrange policy for multi-action RMABs by learning to minimize the Lagrange bound through a variant of Q-learning. To ensure fast convergence, we take an approximation strategy that enables learning on a single timescale, then give a guarantee relating the approximation's precision to an upper bound of LPQL's return as $t\rightarrow{}\infty$. Finally, we show that our approaches always outperform baselines across multiple settings, including one derived from real-world medication adherence data.
Stochastic Batch Acquisition: A Simple Baseline for Deep Active Learning
Authors: Andreas Kirsch, Sebastian Farquhar, Parmida Atighehchian, Andrew Jesson, Frederic Branchaud-Charron, Yarin Gal
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00
Tasks: Active Learning

We examine a simple stochastic strategy for adapting well-known single-point acquisition functions to allow batch active learning. Unlike acquiring the top-K points from the pool set, score- or rank-based sampling takes into account that acquisition scores change as new data are acquired. This simple strategy for adapting standard single-sample acquisition strategies can even perform just as well as compute-intensive state-of-the-art batch acquisition functions, like BatchBALD or BADGE, while using orders of magnitude less compute. In addition to providing a practical option for machine learning practitioners, the surprising success of the proposed method in a wide range of experimental settings raises a difficult question for the field: when are these expensive batch acquisition methods pulling their weight?
A Practical & Unified Notation for Information-Theoretic Quantities in ML
Authors: Andreas Kirsch, Yarin Gal
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00
Tasks: Active Learning, Experimental Design, Variational Inference

A practical notation can convey valuable intuitions and concisely express new ideas. Information theory is of importance to machine learning, but the notation for information-theoretic quantities is sometimes opaque. We propose a practical and unified notation and extend it to include information-theoretic quantities between observed outcomes (events) and random variables. This includes the point-wise mutual information known in NLP and mixed quantities such as specific surprise and specific information in the cognitive sciences and information gain in Bayesian optimal experimental design. We apply our notation to prove a version of Stirling's approximation for binomial coefficients mentioned by MacKa (2003) using new intuitions. We also concisely rederive the evidence lower bound for variational auto-encoders and variational inference in approximate Bayesian neural networks. Furthermore, we apply the notation to a popular information-theoretic acquisition function in Bayesian active learning which selects the most informative (unlabelled) samples to be labelled by an expert and extend this acquisition function to the core-set problem with the goal of selecting the most informative samples given the labels.
Towards Consistent Predictive Confidence through Fitted Ensembles
Authors: Navid Kardan, Ankit Sharma, Kenneth O. Stanley
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00
Tasks: Out of Distribution (OOD) Detection

Deep neural networks are behind many of the recent successes in machine learning applications. However, these models can produce overconfident decisions while encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) examples or making a wrong prediction. This inconsistent predictive confidence limits the integration of independently-trained learning models into a larger system. This paper introduces separable concept learning framework to realistically measure the performance of classifiers in presence of OOD examples. In this setup, several instances of a classifier are trained on different parts of a partition of the set of classes. Later, the performance of the combination of these models is evaluated on a separate test set. Unlike current OOD detection techniques, this framework does not require auxiliary OOD datasets and does not separate classification from detection performance. Furthermore, we present a new strong baseline for more consistent predictive confidence in deep models, called fitted ensembles, where overconfident predictions are rectified by transformed versions of the original classification task. Fitted ensembles can naturally detect OOD examples without requiring auxiliary data by observing contradicting predictions among its components. Experiments on MNIST, SVHN, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet show fitted ensemble significantly outperform conventional ensembles on OOD examples and are possible to scale.
Forecasting Health and Wellbeing for Shift Workers Using Job-role Based Deep Neural Network
Authors: Han Yu, Asami Itoh, Ryota Sakamoto, Motomu Shimaoka, Akane Sano
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00

Shift workers who are essential contributors to our society, face high risks of poor health and wellbeing. To help with their problems, we collected and analyzed physiological and behavioral wearable sensor data from shift working nurses and doctors, as well as their behavioral questionnaire data and their self-reported daily health and wellbeing labels, including alertness, happiness, energy, health, and stress. We found the similarities and differences between the responses of nurses and doctors. According to the differences in self-reported health and wellbeing labels between nurses and doctors, and the correlations among their labels, we proposed a job-role based multitask and multilabel deep learning model, where we modeled physiological and behavioral data for nurses and doctors simultaneously to predict participants' next day's multidimensional self-reported health and wellbeing status. Our model showed significantly better performances than baseline models and previous state-of-the-art models in the evaluations of binary/3-class classification and regression prediction tasks. We also found features related to heart rate, sleep, and work shift contributed to shift workers' health and wellbeing.
Learning Identity-Preserving Transformations on Data Manifolds
Authors: Marissa Connor, Kion Fallah, Christopher Rozell
Date: 2021-06-22 00:00:00

Many machine learning techniques incorporate identity-preserving transformations into their models to generalize their performance to previously unseen data. These transformations are typically selected from a set of functions that are known to maintain the identity of an input when applied (e.g., rotation, translation, flipping, and scaling). However, there are many natural variations that cannot be labeled for supervision or defined through examination of the data. As suggested by the manifold hypothesis, many of these natural variations live on or near a low-dimensional, nonlinear manifold. Several techniques represent manifold variations through a set of learned Lie group operators that define directions of motion on the manifold. However, these approaches are limited because they require transformation labels when training their models and they lack a method for determining which regions of the manifold are appropriate for applying each specific operator. We address these limitations by introducing a learning strategy that does not require transformation labels and developing a method that learns the local regions where each operator is likely to be used while preserving the identity of inputs. Experiments on MNIST and Fashion MNIST highlight our model's ability to learn identity-preserving transformations on multi-class datasets. Additionally, we train on CelebA to showcase our model's ability to learn semantically meaningful transformations on complex datasets in an unsupervised manner.
Near-Optimal Linear Regression under Distribution Shift
Authors: Qi Lei, Wei Hu, Jason D. Lee
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: regression, Transfer Learning

Transfer learning is essential when sufficient data comes from the source domain, with scarce labeled data from the target domain. We develop estimators that achieve minimax linear risk for linear regression problems under distribution shift. Our algorithms cover different transfer learning settings including covariate shift and model shift. We also consider when data are generated from either linear or general nonlinear models. We show that linear minimax estimators are within an absolute constant of the minimax risk even among nonlinear estimators for various source/target distributions.
Secure Domain Adaptation with Multiple Sources
Authors: Serban Stan, Mohammad Rostami
Date: 2021-06-23 00:00:00
Tasks: Domain Adaptation, Multi-Source Unsupervised Domain Adaptation, Unsupervised Domain Adaptation

Multi-source unsupervised domain adaptation (MUDA) is a framework to address the challenge of annotated data scarcity in a target domain via transferring knowledge from multiple annotated source domains. When the source domains are distributed, data privacy and security can become significant concerns and protocols may limit data sharing, yet existing MUDA methods overlook these constraints. We develop an algorithm to address MUDA when source domain data cannot be shared with the target or across the source domains. Our method is based on aligning the distributions of source and target domains indirectly via estimating the source feature embeddings and predicting over a confidence based combination of domain specific model predictions. We provide theoretical analysis to support our approach and conduct empirical experiments to demonstrate that our algorithm is effective.