pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Empirical Quantitative Analysis of COVID-19 Forecasting Models
Authors: Yun Zhao, Yuqing Wang, Junfeng Liu, Haotian Xia, Zhenni Xu, Qinghang Hong, Zhiyang Zhou, Linda Petzold
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Model Selection, Time Series, Time Series Analysis

COVID-19 has been a public health emergency of international concern since early 2020. Reliable forecasting is critical to diminish the impact of this disease. To date, a large number of different forecasting models have been proposed, mainly including statistical models, compartmental models, and deep learning models. However, due to various uncertain factors across different regions such as economics and government policy, no forecasting model appears to be the best for all scenarios. In this paper, we perform quantitative analysis of COVID-19 forecasting of confirmed cases and deaths across different regions in the United States with different forecasting horizons, and evaluate the relative impacts of the following three dimensions on the predictive performance (improvement and variation) through different evaluation metrics: model selection, hyperparameter tuning, and the length of time series required for training. We find that if a dimension brings about higher performance gains, if not well-tuned, it may also lead to harsher performance penalties. Furthermore, model selection is the dominant factor in determining the predictive performance. It is responsible for both the largest improvement and the largest variation in performance in all prediction tasks across different regions. While practitioners may perform more complicated time series analysis in practice, they should be able to achieve reasonable results if they have adequate insight into key decisions like model selection.
Lagrangian Inference for Ranking Problems
Authors: Yue Liu, Ethan X. Fang, Junwei Lu
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Uncertainty Quantification

We propose a novel combinatorial inference framework to conduct general uncertainty quantification in ranking problems. We consider the widely adopted Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, where each item is assigned a positive preference score that determines the Bernoulli distributions of pairwise comparisons' outcomes. Our proposed method aims to infer general ranking properties of the BTL model. The general ranking properties include the "local" properties such as if an item is preferred over another and the "global" properties such as if an item is among the top $K$-ranked items. We further generalize our inferential framework to multiple testing problems where we control the false discovery rate (FDR), and apply the method to infer the top-$K$ ranked items. We also derive the information-theoretic lower bound to justify the minimax optimality of the proposed method. We conduct extensive numerical studies using both synthetic and real datasets to back up our theory.
Comparing Sequential Forecasters
Authors: Yo Joong Choe, Aaditya Ramdas
Date: 2021-09-30 00:00:00
Tasks: valid

Consider two forecasters, each making a single prediction for a sequence of events over time. We ask a relatively basic question: how might we compare these forecasters, either online or post-hoc, while avoiding unverifiable assumptions on how the forecasts and outcomes were generated? In this paper, we present a rigorous answer to this question by designing novel sequential inference procedures for estimating the time-varying difference in forecast scores. To do this, we employ confidence sequences (CS), which are sequences of confidence intervals that can be continuously monitored and are valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times ("anytime-valid"). The widths of our CSs are adaptive to the underlying variance of the score differences. Underlying their construction is a game-theoretic statistical framework, in which we further identify e-processes and p-processes for sequentially testing a weak null hypothesis -- whether one forecaster outperforms another on average (rather than always). Our methods do not make distributional assumptions on the forecasts or outcomes; our main theorems apply to any bounded scores, and we later provide alternative methods for unbounded scores. We empirically validate our approaches by comparing real-world baseball and weather forecasters.
Sparse Quadratic Optimisation over the Stiefel Manifold with Application to Permutation Synchronisation
Authors: Florian Bernard, Daniel Cremers, Johan Thunberg
Date: 2021-09-30 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2021 12
Tasks: Clustering, Constrained Clustering, Graph Matching

We address the non-convex optimisation problem of finding a sparse matrix on the Stiefel manifold (matrices with mutually orthogonal columns of unit length) that maximises (or minimises) a quadratic objective function. Optimisation problems on the Stiefel manifold occur for example in spectral relaxations of various combinatorial problems, such as graph matching, clustering, or permutation synchronisation. Although sparsity is a desirable property in such settings, it is mostly neglected in spectral formulations since existing solvers, e.g. based on eigenvalue decomposition, are unable to account for sparsity while at the same time maintaining global optimality guarantees. We fill this gap and propose a simple yet effective sparsity-promoting modification of the Orthogonal Iteration algorithm for finding the dominant eigenspace of a matrix. By doing so, we can guarantee that our method finds a Stiefel matrix that is globally optimal with respect to the quadratic objective function, while in addition being sparse. As a motivating application we consider the task of permutation synchronisation, which can be understood as a constrained clustering problem that has particular relevance for matching multiple images or 3D shapes in computer vision, computer graphics, and beyond. We demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms previous methods in this domain.
SAM: A Self-adaptive Attention Module for Context-Aware Recommendation System
Authors: Jiabin Liu, Zheng Wei, Zhengpin Li, Xiaojun Mao, Jian Wang, Zhongyu Wei, Qi Zhang
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Recommendation Systems, Representation Learning, Selection bias

Recently, textual information has been proved to play a positive role in recommendation systems. However, most of the existing methods only focus on representation learning of textual information in ratings, while potential selection bias induced by the textual information is ignored. In this work, we propose a novel and general self-adaptive module, the Self-adaptive Attention Module (SAM), which adjusts the selection bias by capturing contextual information based on its representation. This module can be embedded into recommendation systems that contain learning components of contextual information. Experimental results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal, and the state-of-the-art models with SAM significantly outperform the original ones.
Learner to learner fuzzy profiles similarity using a hybrid interaction analysis grid
Authors: Chabane Khentout, Khadidja Harbouche, Mahieddine Djoudi
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00

The analysis of remote discussions is not yet at the same level as the face-to-face ones. The present paper aspires twofold. On the one hand, it attempts to establish a suitable environment of interaction and collaboration among learners by using the speech acts via a semi structured synchronous communication tool. On the other, it aims to define behavioral profiles and interpersonal skills hybrid grid by matching the BALES' IPA and PLETY's analysis system. By applying the fuzzy logic, we formalize human reasoning and, thus, giving very appreciable flexibility to the reasoning that use it, which makes it possible to take into account imprecisions and uncertainties. In addition, the educational data mining techniques are used to optimize the mapping of behaviors to learner's profile, with similarity-based clustering, using Eros and PCA measures. In order to show the validity of our system, we performed an experiment on real-world data. The results show, among others: (1) the usefulness of fuzzy logic to properly translate the profile text descriptions into a mathematical format, (2) an irregularity in the behavior of the learners, (3) the correlation between the profiles, (4) the superiority of Eros method to the PCA factor in precision.
Explainable Point-Based Document Visualizations
Authors: Primož Godec, Nikola Ðukić, Ajda Pretnar, Vesna Tanko, Lan Žagar, Blaž Zupan
Date: 2021-09-28 00:00:00
Tasks: Articles, Keyword Extraction

Two-dimensional data maps can visually reveal information about the relations between data instances. Popular techniques to construct data maps are t-SNE and UMAP. The resulting point-based visualizations, though, provide information only through their interpretation. We here consider a set of abstracts from the articles on longevity to argue for using keyword extraction methods to label clusters of documents in the map. Among the considered approaches, the best results were obtained by recently proposed YAKE!. Surprisingly, a classical TF-IDF term ranking outperformed graph and embedding-based techniques.
SMATE: Semi-Supervised Spatio-Temporal Representation Learning on Multivariate Time Series
Authors: Jingwei Zuo, Karine Zeitouni, Yehia Taher
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Representation Learning, Time Series, Time Series Analysis

Learning from Multivariate Time Series (MTS) has attracted widespread attention in recent years. In particular, label shortage is a real challenge for the classification task on MTS, considering its complex dimensional and sequential data structure. Unlike self-training and positive unlabeled learning that rely on distance-based classifiers, in this paper, we propose SMATE, a novel semi-supervised model for learning the interpretable Spatio-Temporal representation from weakly labeled MTS. We validate empirically the learned representation on 30 public datasets from the UEA MTS archive. We compare it with 13 state-of-the-art baseline methods for fully supervised tasks and four baselines for semi-supervised tasks. The results show the reliability and efficiency of our proposed method.
Reconstruction for Powerful Graph Representations
Authors: Leonardo Cotta, Christopher Morris, Bruno Ribeiro
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2021 12
Tasks: Graph Reconstruction, Graph Representation Learning, Inductive Bias, Representation Learning

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have limited expressive power, failing to represent many graph classes correctly. While more expressive graph representation learning (GRL) alternatives can distinguish some of these classes, they are significantly harder to implement, may not scale well, and have not been shown to outperform well-tuned GNNs in real-world tasks. Thus, devising simple, scalable, and expressive GRL architectures that also achieve real-world improvements remains an open challenge. In this work, we show the extent to which graph reconstruction -- reconstructing a graph from its subgraphs -- can mitigate the theoretical and practical problems currently faced by GRL architectures. First, we leverage graph reconstruction to build two new classes of expressive graph representations. Secondly, we show how graph reconstruction boosts the expressive power of any GNN architecture while being a (provably) powerful inductive bias for invariances to vertex removals. Empirically, we show how reconstruction can boost GNN's expressive power -- while maintaining its invariance to permutations of the vertices -- by solving seven graph property tasks not solvable by the original GNN. Further, we demonstrate how it boosts state-of-the-art GNN's performance across nine real-world benchmark datasets.
Belief propagation for permutations, rankings, and partial orders
Authors: George T. Cantwell, Cristopher Moore
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Model Selection, Position

Many datasets give partial information about an ordering or ranking by indicating which team won a game, which item a user prefers, or who infected whom. We define a continuous spin system whose Gibbs distribution is the posterior distribution on permutations, given a probabilistic model of these interactions. Using the cavity method we derive a belief propagation algorithm that computes the marginal distribution of each node's position. In addition, the Bethe free energy lets us approximate the number of linear extensions of a partial order and perform model selection between competing probabilistic models, such as the Bradley-Terry-Luce model of noisy comparisons and its cousins.
Instance Segmentation Challenge Track Technical Report, VIPriors Workshop at ICCV 2021: Task-Specific Copy-Paste Data Augmentation Method for Instance Segmentation
Authors: Jahongir Yunusov, Shohruh Rakhmatov, Abdulaziz Namozov, Abdulaziz Gaybulayev, Tae-Hyong Kim
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Data Augmentation, Instance Segmentation, Segmentation, Semantic Segmentation

Copy-Paste has proven to be a very effective data augmentation for instance segmentation which can improve the generalization of the model. We used a task-specific Copy-Paste data augmentation method to achieve good performance on the instance segmentation track of the 2nd VIPriors workshop challenge. We also applied additional data augmentation techniques including RandAugment and GridMask. Our segmentation model is the HTC detector on the CBSwin-B with CBFPN with some tweaks. This model was trained at the multi-scale mode by a random sampler on the 6x schedule and tested at the single-scale mode. By combining these techniques, we achieved 0.398 AP@0.50:0.95 with the validation set and 0.433 AP@0.50:0.95 with the test set. Finally, we reached 0.477 AP@0.50:0.95 with the test set by adding the validation set to the training data. Source code is available at https://github.com/jahongir7174/VIP2021.
MonoCInIS: Camera Independent Monocular 3D Object Detection using Instance Segmentation
Authors: Jonas Heylen, Mark De Wolf, Bruno Dawagne, Marc Proesmans, Luc van Gool, Wim Abbeloos, Hazem Abdelkawy, Daniel Olmeda Reino
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: 3D Object Detection, Instance Segmentation, Monocular 3D Object Detection, Object, object-detection, Object Detection, Pose Estimation, Semantic Segmentation

Monocular 3D object detection has recently shown promising results, however there remain challenging problems. One of those is the lack of invariance to different camera intrinsic parameters, which can be observed across different 3D object datasets. Little effort has been made to exploit the combination of heterogeneous 3D object datasets. In contrast to general intuition, we show that more data does not automatically guarantee a better performance, but rather, methods need to have a degree of 'camera independence' in order to benefit from large and heterogeneous training data. In this paper we propose a category-level pose estimation method based on instance segmentation, using camera independent geometric reasoning to cope with the varying camera viewpoints and intrinsics of different datasets. Every pixel of an instance predicts the object dimensions, the 3D object reference points projected in 2D image space and, optionally, the local viewing angle. Camera intrinsics are only used outside of the learned network to lift the predicted 2D reference points to 3D. We surpass camera independent methods on the challenging KITTI3D benchmark and show the key benefits compared to camera dependent methods.
Topologically-Informed Atlas Learning
Authors: Thomas Cohn, Nikhil Devraj, Odest Chadwicke Jenkins
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00

We present a new technique that enables manifold learning to accurately embed data manifolds that contain holes, without discarding any topological information. Manifold learning aims to embed high dimensional data into a lower dimensional Euclidean space by learning a coordinate chart, but it requires that the entire manifold can be embedded in a single chart. This is impossible for manifolds with holes. In such cases, it is necessary to learn an atlas: a collection of charts that collectively cover the entire manifold. We begin with many small charts, and combine them in a bottom-up approach, where charts are only combined if doing so will not introduce problematic topological features. When it is no longer possible to combine any charts, each chart is individually embedded with standard manifold learning techniques, completing the construction of the atlas. We show the efficacy of our method by constructing atlases for challenging synthetic manifolds; learning human motion embeddings from motion capture data; and learning kinematic models of articulated objects.
Personalized Retrogress-Resilient Framework for Real-World Medical Federated Learning
Authors: Zhen Chen, Meilu Zhu, Chen Yang, Yixuan Yuan
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Federated Learning

Nowadays, deep learning methods with large-scale datasets can produce clinically useful models for computer-aided diagnosis. However, the privacy and ethical concerns are increasingly critical, which make it difficult to collect large quantities of data from multiple institutions. Federated Learning (FL) provides a promising decentralized solution to train model collaboratively by exchanging client models instead of private data. However, the server aggregation of existing FL methods is observed to degrade the model performance in real-world medical FL setting, which is termed as retrogress. To address this problem, we propose a personalized retrogress-resilient framework to produce a superior personalized model for each client. Specifically, we devise a Progressive Fourier Aggregation (PFA) at the server to achieve more stable and effective global knowledge gathering by integrating client models from low-frequency to high-frequency gradually. Moreover, with an introduced deputy model to receive the aggregated server model, we design a Deputy-Enhanced Transfer (DET) strategy at the client and conduct three steps of Recover-Exchange-Sublimate to ameliorate the personalized local model by transferring the global knowledge smoothly. Extensive experiments on real-world dermoscopic FL dataset prove that our personalized retrogress-resilient framework outperforms state-of-the-art FL methods, as well as the generalization on an out-of-distribution cohort. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/CityU-AIM-Group/PRR-FL.
Divergence-Regularized Multi-Agent Actor-Critic
Authors: Kefan Su, Zongqing Lu
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL), Starcraft

Entropy regularization is a popular method in reinforcement learning (RL). Although it has many advantages, it alters the RL objective of the original Markov Decision Process (MDP). Though divergence regularization has been proposed to settle this problem, it cannot be trivially applied to cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). In this paper, we investigate divergence regularization in cooperative MARL and propose a novel off-policy cooperative MARL framework, divergence-regularized multi-agent actor-critic (DMAC). Theoretically, we derive the update rule of DMAC which is naturally off-policy and guarantees monotonic policy improvement and convergence in both the original MDP and divergence-regularized MDP. We also give a bound of the discrepancy between the converged policy and optimal policy in the original MDP. DMAC is a flexible framework and can be combined with many existing MARL algorithms. Empirically, we evaluate DMAC in a didactic stochastic game and StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge and show that DMAC substantially improves the performance of existing MARL algorithms.
Learning Reward Functions from Scale Feedback
Authors: Nils Wilde, Erdem Biyik, Dorsa Sadigh, Stephen L. Smith
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00

Today's robots are increasingly interacting with people and need to efficiently learn inexperienced user's preferences. A common framework is to iteratively query the user about which of two presented robot trajectories they prefer. While this minimizes the users effort, a strict choice does not yield any information on how much one trajectory is preferred. We propose scale feedback, where the user utilizes a slider to give more nuanced information. We introduce a probabilistic model on how users would provide feedback and derive a learning framework for the robot. We demonstrate the performance benefit of slider feedback in simulations, and validate our approach in two user studies suggesting that scale feedback enables more effective learning in practice.
From SLAM to Situational Awareness: Challenges and Survey
Authors: Hriday Bavle, Jose Luis Sanchez-Lopez, Claudio Cimarelli, Ali Tourani, Holger Voos
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Sensor Fusion, Simultaneous Localization and Mapping, State Estimation, Survey

The capability of a mobile robot to efficiently and safely perform complex missions is limited by its knowledge of the environment, namely the situation. Advanced reasoning, decision-making, and execution skills enable an intelligent agent to act autonomously in unknown environments. Situational Awareness (SA) is a fundamental capability of humans that has been deeply studied in various fields, such as psychology, military, aerospace, and education. Nevertheless, it has yet to be considered in robotics, which has focused on single compartmentalized concepts such as sensing, spatial perception, sensor fusion, state estimation, and Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM). Hence, the present research aims to connect the broad multidisciplinary existing knowledge to pave the way for a complete SA system for mobile robotics that we deem paramount for autonomy. To this aim, we define the principal components to structure a robotic SA and their area of competence. Accordingly, this paper investigates each aspect of SA, surveying the state-of-the-art robotics algorithms that cover them, and discusses their current limitations. Remarkably, essential aspects of SA are still immature since the current algorithmic development restricts their performance to only specific environments. Nevertheless, Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly Deep Learning (DL), has brought new methods to bridge the gap that maintains these fields apart from the deployment to real-world scenarios. Furthermore, an opportunity has been discovered to interconnect the vastly fragmented space of robotic comprehension algorithms through the mechanism of Situational Graph (S-Graph), a generalization of the well-known scene graph. Therefore, we finally shape our vision for the future of robotic Situational Awareness by discussing interesting recent research directions.
Inductive Representation Learning in Temporal Networks via Mining Neighborhood and Community Influences
Authors: Meng Liu, Yong liu
Date: 2021-10-01 00:00:00
Tasks: Link Prediction, Node Classification, Representation Learning

Network representation learning aims to generate an embedding for each node in a network, which facilitates downstream machine learning tasks such as node classification and link prediction. Current work mainly focuses on transductive network representation learning, i.e. generating fixed node embeddings, which is not suitable for real-world applications. Therefore, we propose a new inductive network representation learning method called MNCI by mining neighborhood and community influences in temporal networks. We propose an aggregator function that integrates neighborhood influence with community influence to generate node embeddings at any time. We conduct extensive experiments on several real-world datasets and compare MNCI with several state-of-the-art baseline methods on various tasks, including node classification and network visualization. The experimental results show that MNCI achieves better performance than baselines.