pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Model Stability with Continuous Data Updates
Authors: Huiting Liu, Avinesh P. V. S., Siddharth Patwardhan, Peter Grasch, Sachin Agarwal
Date: 2022-01-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Decoder, model, text-classification, Text Classification

In this paper, we study the "stability" of machine learning (ML) models within the context of larger, complex NLP systems with continuous training data updates. For this study, we propose a methodology for the assessment of model stability (which we refer to as jitter under various experimental conditions. We find that model design choices, including network architecture and input representation, have a critical impact on stability through experiments on four text classification tasks and two sequence labeling tasks. In classification tasks, non-RNN-based models are observed to be more stable than RNN-based ones, while the encoder-decoder model is less stable in sequence labeling tasks. Moreover, input representations based on pre-trained fastText embeddings contribute to more stability than other choices. We also show that two learning strategies -- ensemble models and incremental training -- have a significant influence on stability. We recommend ML model designers account for trade-offs in accuracy and jitter when making modeling choices.
Towards Reducing Manual Workload in Technology-Assisted Reviews: Estimating Ranking Performance
Authors: Grace E. Lee, Aixin Sun
Date: 2022-01-14 00:00:00
Tasks: Document Ranking

Conducting a systematic review (SR) is comprised of multiple tasks: (i) collect documents (studies) that are likely to be relevant from digital libraries (eg., PubMed), (ii) manually read and label the documents as relevant or irrelevant, (iii) extract information from the relevant studies, and (iv) analyze and synthesize the information and derive a conclusion of SR. When researchers label studies, they can screen ranked documents where relevant documents are higher than irrelevant ones. This practice, known as screening prioritization (ie., document ranking approach), speeds up the process of conducting a SR as the documents labelled as relevant can move to the next tasks earlier. However, the approach is limited in reducing the manual workload because the total number of documents to screen remains the same. Towards reducing the manual workload in the screening process, we investigate the quality of document ranking of SR. This can signal researchers whereabouts in the ranking relevant studies are located and let them decide where to stop the screening. After extensive analysis on SR document rankings from different ranking models, we hypothesize 'topic broadness' as a factor that affects the ranking quality of SR. Finally, we propose a measure that estimates the topic broadness and demonstrate that the proposed measure is a simple yet effective method to predict the qualities of document rankings for SRs.
Large Scale Analysis of Open MOOC Reviews to Support Learners' Course Selection
Authors: Manuel J. Gomez, Mario Calderón, Victor Sánchez, Félix J. García Clemente, José A. Ruipérez-Valiente
Date: 2022-01-11 00:00:00
Tasks: Sentiment Analysis

The recent pandemic has changed the way we see education. It is not surprising that children and college students are not the only ones using online education. Millions of adults have signed up for online classes and courses during last years, and MOOC providers, such as Coursera or edX, are reporting millions of new users signing up in their platforms. However, students do face some challenges when choosing courses. Though online review systems are standard among many verticals, no standardized or fully decentralized review systems exist in the MOOC ecosystem. In this vein, we believe that there is an opportunity to leverage available open MOOC reviews in order to build simpler and more transparent reviewing systems, allowing users to really identify the best courses out there. Specifically, in our research we analyze 2.4 million reviews (which is the largest MOOC reviews dataset used until now) from five different platforms in order to determine the following: (1) if the numeric ratings provide discriminant information to learners, (2) if NLP-driven sentiment analysis on textual reviews could provide valuable information to learners, (3) if we can leverage NLP-driven topic finding techniques to infer themes that could be important for learners, and (4) if we can use these models to effectively characterize MOOCs based on the open reviews. Results show that numeric ratings are clearly biased (63\% of them are 5-star ratings), and the topic modeling reveals some interesting topics related with course advertisements, the real applicability, or the difficulty of the different courses. We expect our study to shed some light on the area and promote a more transparent approach in online education reviews, which are becoming more and more popular as we enter the post-pandemic era.
Beyond modeling: NLP Pipeline for efficient environmental policy analysis
Authors: Jordi Planas, Daniel Firebanks-Quevedo, Galina Naydenova, Ramansh Sharma, Cristina Taylor, Kathleen Buckingham, Rong Fang
Date: 2022-01-08 00:00:00
Tasks: Management

As we enter the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, creating effective incentive structures for forest and landscape restoration has never been more critical. Policy analysis is necessary for policymakers to understand the actors and rules involved in restoration in order to shift economic and financial incentives to the right places. Classical policy analysis is resource-intensive and complex, lacks comprehensive central information sources, and is prone to overlapping jurisdictions. We propose a Knowledge Management Framework based on Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques that would tackle these challenges and automate repetitive tasks, reducing the policy analysis process from weeks to minutes. Our framework was designed in collaboration with policy analysis experts and made to be platform-, language- and policy-agnostic. In this paper, we describe the design of the NLP pipeline, review the state-of-the-art methods for each of its components, and discuss the challenges that rise when building a framework oriented towards policy analysis.
Self-Modifying Code in Open-Ended Evolutionary Systems
Authors: Patrik Christen
Date: 2022-01-18 00:00:00

Having a model and being able to implement open-ended evolutionary systems is important for advancing our understanding of open-endedness. Complex systems science and newest generation high-level programming languages provide intriguing possibilities to do so. First, some recent advances in modelling and implementing open-ended evolutionary systems are reviewed. Then, the so-called allagmatic method is introduced that describes, models, implements, and allows interpretation of complex systems. After highlighting some current modelling and implementation challenges, model building blocks of open-ended evolutionary systems are identified, a system metamodel of open-ended evolution is formalised in the allagmatic method, an implementation self-modifying code prototype with a high-level programming language is provided, and guidance from the allagmatic method to create code blocks is described. The proposed prototype allows modifying code at runtime in a controlled way within a system metamodel. Since the allagmatic method has been built based on metaphysical concepts borrowed from Gilbert Simondon and Alfred N. Whitehead, the proposed prototype provides a promising starting point to interpret novelty generated at runtime with the help of a metaphysical framework.
A Simple Evolutionary Algorithm for Multi-modal Multi-objective Optimization
Authors: Tapabrata Ray, Mohammad Mohiuddin Mamun, Hemant Kumar Singh
Date: 2022-01-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Benchmarking

In solving multi-modal, multi-objective optimization problems (MMOPs), the objective is not only to find a good representation of the Pareto-optimal front (PF) in the objective space but also to find all equivalent Pareto-optimal subsets (PSS) in the variable space. Such problems are practically relevant when a decision maker (DM) is interested in identifying alternative designs with similar performance. There has been significant research interest in recent years to develop efficient algorithms to deal with MMOPs. However, the existing algorithms still require prohibitive number of function evaluations (often in several thousands) to deal with problems involving as low as two objectives and two variables. The algorithms are typically embedded with sophisticated, customized mechanisms that require additional parameters to manage the diversity and convergence in the variable and the objective spaces. In this letter, we introduce a steady-state evolutionary algorithm for solving MMOPs, with a simple design and no additional userdefined parameters that need tuning compared to a standard EA. We report its performance on 21 MMOPs from various test suites that are widely used for benchmarking using a low computational budget of 1000 function evaluations. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with six state-of-the-art algorithms (MO Ring PSO SCD, DN-NSGAII, TriMOEA-TA&R, CPDEA, MMOEA/DC and MMEA-WI). The proposed algorithm exhibits significantly better performance than the above algorithms based on the established metrics including IGDX, PSP and IGD. We hope this study would encourage design of simple, efficient and generalized algorithms to improve its uptake for practical applications.
Runtime Analysis of Restricted Tournament Selection for Bimodal Optimisation
Authors: Edgar Covantes Osuna, Dirk Sudholt
Date: 2022-01-17 00:00:00

Niching methods have been developed to maintain the population diversity, to investigate many peaks in parallel and to reduce the effect of genetic drift. We present the first rigorous runtime analyses of restricted tournament selection (RTS), embedded in a ($\mu$+1) EA, and analyse its effectiveness at finding both optima of the bimodal function ${\rm T{\small WO}M{\small AX}}$. In RTS, an offspring competes against the closest individual, with respect to some distance measure, amongst $w$ (window size) population members (chosen uniformly at random with replacement), to encourage competition within the same niche. We prove that RTS finds both optima on ${\rm T{\small WO}M{\small AX}}$ efficiently if the window size $w$ is large enough. However, if $w$ is too small, RTS fails to find both optima even in exponential time, with high probability. We further consider a variant of RTS selecting individuals for the tournament \emph{without} replacement. It yields a more diverse tournament and is more effective at preventing one niche from taking over the other. However, this comes at the expense of a slower progress towards optima when a niche collapses to a single individual. Our theoretical results are accompanied by experimental studies that shed light on parameters not covered by the theoretical results and support a conjectured lower runtime bound.
Modeling the Repetition-based Recovering of Acoustic and Visual Sources with Dendritic Neurons
Authors: Giorgia Dellaferrera, Toshitake Asabuki, Tomoki Fukai
Date: 2022-01-16 00:00:00
Tasks: blind source separation

In natural auditory environments, acoustic signals originate from the temporal superimposition of different sound sources. The problem of inferring individual sources from ambiguous mixtures of sounds is known as blind source decomposition. Experiments on humans have demonstrated that the auditory system can identify sound sources as repeating patterns embedded in the acoustic input. Source repetition produces temporal regularities that can be detected and used for segregation. Specifically, listeners can identify sounds occurring more than once across different mixtures, but not sounds heard only in a single mixture. However, whether such a behaviour can be computationally modelled has not yet been explored. Here, we propose a biologically inspired computational model to perform blind source separation on sequences of mixtures of acoustic stimuli. Our method relies on a somatodendritic neuron model trained with a Hebbian-like learning rule which can detect spatio-temporal patterns recurring in synaptic inputs. We show that the segregation capabilities of our model are reminiscent of the features of human performance in a variety of experimental settings involving synthesized sounds with naturalistic properties. Furthermore, we extend the study to investigate the properties of segregation on task settings not yet explored with human subjects, namely natural sounds and images. Overall, our work suggests that somatodendritic neuron models offer a promising neuro-inspired learning strategy to account for the characteristics of the brain segregation capabilities as well as to make predictions on yet untested experimental settings.
Who Increases Emergency Department Use? New Insights from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment
Authors: Augustine Denteh, Helge Liebert
Date: 2022-01-18 00:00:00

We provide new insights regarding the headline result that Medicaid increased emergency department (ED) use from the Oregon experiment. We find meaningful heterogeneous impacts of Medicaid on ED use using causal machine learning methods. The individualized treatment effect distribution includes a wide range of negative and positive values, suggesting the average effect masks substantial heterogeneity. A small group-about 14% of participants-in the right tail of the distribution drives the overall effect. We identify priority groups with economically significant increases in ED usage based on demographics and previous utilization. Intensive margin effects are an important driver of increases in ED utilization.
Convergence of a robust deep FBSDE method for stochastic control
Authors: Kristoffer Andersson, Adam Andersson, Cornelis W. Oosterlee
Date: 2022-01-18 00:00:00

In this paper, we propose a deep learning based numerical scheme for strongly coupled FBSDEs, stemming from stochastic control. It is a modification of the deep BSDE method in which the initial value to the backward equation is not a free parameter, and with a new loss function being the weighted sum of the cost of the control problem, and a variance term which coincides with the mean squared error in the terminal condition. We show by a numerical example that a direct extension of the classical deep BSDE method to FBSDEs, fails for a simple linear-quadratic control problem, and motivate why the new method works. Under regularity and boundedness assumptions on the exact controls of time continuous and time discrete control problems, we provide an error analysis for our method. We show empirically that the method converges for three different problems, one being the one that failed for a direct extension of the deep BSDE method.
Observing how deep neural networks understand physics through the energy spectrum of one-dimensional quantum mechanics
Authors: Kenzo Ogure
Date: 2022-01-18 00:00:00

We investigate how neural networks (NNs) understand physics using 1D quantum mechanics. After training an NN to accurately predict energy eigenvalues from potentials, we used it to confirm the NN's understanding of physics from four different aspects. The trained NN could predict energy eigenvalues of different kinds of potentials than the ones learned, predict the probability distribution of the existence of particles not used during training, reproduce untrained physical phenomena, and predict the energy eigenvalues of potentials with an unknown matter effect. These results show that NNs can learn physical laws from experimental data, predict the results of experiments under conditions different from those used for training, and predict physical quantities of types not provided during training. Because NNs understand physics in a different way than humans, they will be a powerful tool for advancing physics by complementing the human way of understanding.
Inferential Theory for Granular Instrumental Variables in High Dimensions
Authors: Saman Banafti, Tae-Hwy Lee
Date: 2022-01-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Time Series, Time Series Analysis, Vocal Bursts Intensity Prediction

The Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) methodology exploits panels with factor error structures to construct instruments to estimate structural time series models with endogeneity even after controlling for latent factors. We extend the GIV methodology in several dimensions. First, we extend the identification procedure to a large $N$ and large $T$ framework, which depends on the asymptotic Herfindahl index of the size distribution of $N$ cross-sectional units. Second, we treat both the factors and loadings as unknown and show that the sampling error in the estimated instrument and factors is negligible when considering the limiting distribution of the structural parameters. Third, we show that the sampling error in the high-dimensional precision matrix is negligible in our estimation algorithm. Fourth, we overidentify the structural parameters with additional constructed instruments, which leads to efficiency gains. Monte Carlo evidence is presented to support our asymptotic theory and application to the global crude oil market leads to new results.
Matrix Reordering for Noisy Disordered Matrices: Optimality and Computationally Efficient Algorithms
Authors: T. Tony Cai, Rong Ma
Date: 2022-01-17 00:00:00

Motivated by applications in single-cell biology and metagenomics, we investigate the problem of matrix reordering based on a noisy disordered monotone Toeplitz matrix model. We establish the fundamental statistical limit for this problem in a decision-theoretic framework and demonstrate that a constrained least squares estimator achieves the optimal rate. However, due to its computational complexity, we analyze a popular polynomial-time algorithm, spectral seriation, and show that it is suboptimal. To address this, we propose a novel polynomial-time adaptive sorting algorithm with guaranteed performance improvement. Simulations and analyses of two real single-cell RNA sequencing datasets demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm over existing methods.
Tk-merge: Computationally Efficient Robust Clustering Under General Assumptions
Authors: Luca Insolia, Domenico Perrotta
Date: 2022-01-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Quantization

We address general-shaped clustering problems under very weak parametric assumptions with a two-step hybrid robust clustering algorithm based on trimmed k-means and hierarchical agglomeration. The algorithm has low computational complexity and effectively identifies the clusters also in presence of data contamination. We also present natural generalizations of the approach as well as an adaptive procedure to estimate the amount of contamination in a data-driven fashion. Our proposal outperforms state-of-the-art robust, model-based methods in our numerical simulations and real-world applications related to color quantization for image analysis, human mobility patterns based on GPS data, biomedical images of diabetic retinopathy, and functional data across weather stations.
Risk bounds for PU learning under Selected At Random assumption
Authors: Olivier Coudray, Christine Keribin, Pascal Massart, Patrick Pamphile
Date: 2022-01-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Binary Classification, Classification

Positive-unlabeled learning (PU learning) is known as a special case of semi-supervised binary classification where only a fraction of positive examples are labeled. The challenge is then to find the correct classifier despite this lack of information. Recently, new methodologies have been introduced to address the case where the probability of being labeled may depend on the covariates. In this paper, we are interested in establishing risk bounds for PU learning under this general assumption. In addition, we quantify the impact of label noise on PU learning compared to standard classification setting. Finally, we provide a lower bound on minimax risk proving that the upper bound is almost optimal.
Targeted Optimal Treatment Regime Learning Using Summary Statistics
Authors: Jianing Chu, Wenbin Lu, Shu Yang
Date: 2022-01-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making

Personalized decision-making, aiming to derive optimal treatment regimes based on individual characteristics, has recently attracted increasing attention in many fields, such as medicine, social services, and economics. Current literature mainly focuses on estimating treatment regimes from a single source population. In real-world applications, the distribution of a target population can be different from that of the source population. Therefore, treatment regimes learned by existing methods may not generalize well to the target population. Due to privacy concerns and other practical issues, individual-level data from the target population is often not available, which makes treatment regime learning more challenging. We consider the problem of treatment regime estimation when the source and target populations may be heterogeneous, individual-level data is available from the source population, and only the summary information of covariates, such as moments, is accessible from the target population. We develop a weighting framework that tailors a treatment regime for a given target population by leveraging the available summary statistics. Specifically, we propose a calibrated augmented inverse probability weighted estimator of the value function for the target population and estimate an optimal treatment regime by maximizing this estimator within a class of pre-specified regimes. We show that the proposed calibrated estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal even with flexible semi/nonparametric models for nuisance function approximation, and the variance of the value estimator can be consistently estimated. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the proposed method using simulation studies and a real application to an eICU dataset as the source sample and a MIMIC-III dataset as the target sample.
Treatment Effect Risk: Bounds and Inference
Authors: Nathan Kallus
Date: 2022-01-15 00:00:00

Since the average treatment effect (ATE) measures the change in social welfare, even if positive, there is a risk of negative effect on, say, some 10% of the population. Assessing such risk is difficult, however, because any one individual treatment effect (ITE) is never observed, so the 10% worst-affected cannot be identified, while distributional treatment effects only compare the first deciles within each treatment group, which does not correspond to any 10%-subpopulation. In this paper we consider how to nonetheless assess this important risk measure, formalized as the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the ITE-distribution. We leverage the availability of pre-treatment covariates and characterize the tightest-possible upper and lower bounds on ITE-CVaR given by the covariate-conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. We then proceed to study how to estimate these bounds efficiently from data and construct confidence intervals. This is challenging even in randomized experiments as it requires understanding the distribution of the unknown CATE function, which can be very complex if we use rich covariates so as to best control for heterogeneity. We develop a debiasing method that overcomes this and prove it enjoys favorable statistical properties even when CATE and other nuisances are estimated by black-box machine learning or even inconsistently. Studying a hypothetical change to French job-search counseling services, our bounds and inference demonstrate a small social benefit entails a negative impact on a substantial subpopulation.