pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Meta-Forecasting by combining Global Deep Representations with Local Adaptation
Authors: Riccardo Grazzi, Valentin Flunkert, David Salinas, Tim Januschowski, Matthias Seeger, Cedric Archambeau
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Meta-Learning, Time Series, Time Series Analysis, Time Series Forecasting

While classical time series forecasting considers individual time series in isolation, recent advances based on deep learning showed that jointly learning from a large pool of related time series can boost the forecasting accuracy. However, the accuracy of these methods suffers greatly when modeling out-of-sample time series, significantly limiting their applicability compared to classical forecasting methods. To bridge this gap, we adopt a meta-learning view of the time series forecasting problem. We introduce a novel forecasting method, called Meta Global-Local Auto-Regression (Meta-GLAR), that adapts to each time series by learning in closed-form the mapping from the representations produced by a recurrent neural network (RNN) to one-step-ahead forecasts. Crucially, the parameters ofthe RNN are learned across multiple time series by backpropagating through the closed-form adaptation mechanism. In our extensive empirical evaluation we show that our method is competitive with the state-of-the-art in out-of-sample forecasting accuracy reported in earlier work.
Transferable Time-Series Forecasting under Causal Conditional Shift
Authors: Zijian Li, Ruichu Cai, Tom Z. J Fu, Zhifeng Hao, Kun Zhang
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Domain Adaptation, Semi-supervised Domain Adaptation, Time Series, Time Series Analysis, Time Series Forecasting

This paper focuses on the problem of semi-supervised domain adaptation for time-series forecasting, which is underexplored in literatures, despite being often encountered in practice. Existing methods on time-series domain adaptation mainly follow the paradigm designed for the static data, which cannot handle domain-specific complex conditional dependencies raised by data offset, time lags, and variant data distributions. In order to address these challenges, we analyze variational conditional dependencies in time-series data and find that the causal structures are usually stable among domains, and further raise the causal conditional shift assumption. Enlightened by this assumption, we consider the causal generation process for time-series data and propose an end-to-end model for the semi-supervised domain adaptation problem on time-series forecasting. Our method can not only discover the Granger-Causal structures among cross-domain data but also address the cross-domain time-series forecasting problem with accurate and interpretable predicted results. We further theoretically analyze the superiority of the proposed method, where the generalization error on the target domain is bounded by the empirical risks and by the discrepancy between the causal structures from different domains. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for the semi-supervised domain adaptation method on time-series forecasting.
Control of a fly-mimicking flyer in complex flow using deep reinforcement learning
Authors: Seungpyo Hong, Sejin Kim, Donghyun You
Date: 2021-11-04 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Reinforcement Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

An integrated framework of computational fluid-structural dynamics (CFD-CSD) and deep reinforcement learning (deep-RL) is developed for control of a fly-scale flexible-winged flyer in complex flow. Dynamics of the flyer in complex flow is highly unsteady and nonlinear, which makes modeling the dynamics challenging. Thus, conventional control methodologies, where the dynamics is modeled, are insufficient for regulating such complicated dynamics. Therefore, in the present study, the integrated framework, in which the whole governing equations for fluid and structure are solved, is proposed to generate a control policy for the flyer. For the deep-RL to successfully learn the control policy, accurate and ample data of the dynamics are required. However, satisfying both the quality and quantity of the data on the intricate dynamics is extremely difficult since, in general, more accurate data are more costly. In the present study, two strategies are proposed to deal with the dilemma. To obtain accurate data, the CFD-CSD is adopted for precisely predicting the dynamics. To gain ample data, a novel data reproduction method is devised, where the obtained data are replicated for various situations while conserving the dynamics. With those data, the framework learns the control policy in various flow conditions and the learned policy is shown to have remarkable performance in controlling the flyer in complex flow fields.
Perturbational Complexity by Distribution Mismatch: A Systematic Analysis of Reinforcement Learning in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space
Authors: Jihao Long, Jiequn Han
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Most existing theoretical analysis of reinforcement learning (RL) is limited to the tabular setting or linear models due to the difficulty in dealing with function approximation in high dimensional space with an uncertain environment. This work offers a fresh perspective into this challenge by analyzing RL in a general reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We consider a family of Markov decision processes $\mathcal{M}$ of which the reward functions lie in the unit ball of an RKHS and transition probabilities lie in a given arbitrary set. We define a quantity called perturbational complexity by distribution mismatch $\Delta_{\mathcal{M}}(\epsilon)$ to characterize the complexity of the admissible state-action distribution space in response to a perturbation in the RKHS with scale $\epsilon$. We show that $\Delta_{\mathcal{M}}(\epsilon)$ gives both the lower bound of the error of all possible algorithms and the upper bound of two specific algorithms (fitted reward and fitted Q-iteration) for the RL problem. Hence, the decay of $\Delta_\mathcal{M}(\epsilon)$ with respect to $\epsilon$ measures the difficulty of the RL problem on $\mathcal{M}$. We further provide some concrete examples and discuss whether $\Delta_{\mathcal{M}}(\epsilon)$ decays fast or not in these examples. As a byproduct, we show that when the reward functions lie in a high dimensional RKHS, even if the transition probability is known and the action space is finite, it is still possible for RL problems to suffer from the curse of dimensionality.
Supervised Advantage Actor-Critic for Recommender Systems
Authors: Xin Xin, Alexandros Karatzoglou, Ioannis Arapakis, Joemon M. Jose
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Q-Learning, Recommendation Systems, Reinforcement Learning (RL), Sequential Recommendation

Casting session-based or sequential recommendation as reinforcement learning (RL) through reward signals is a promising research direction towards recommender systems (RS) that maximize cumulative profits. However, the direct use of RL algorithms in the RS setting is impractical due to challenges like off-policy training, huge action spaces and lack of sufficient reward signals. Recent RL approaches for RS attempt to tackle these challenges by combining RL and (self-)supervised sequential learning, but still suffer from certain limitations. For example, the estimation of Q-values tends to be biased toward positive values due to the lack of negative reward signals. Moreover, the Q-values also depend heavily on the specific timestamp of a sequence. To address the above problems, we propose negative sampling strategy for training the RL component and combine it with supervised sequential learning. We call this method Supervised Negative Q-learning (SNQN). Based on sampled (negative) actions (items), we can calculate the "advantage" of a positive action over the average case, which can be further utilized as a normalized weight for learning the supervised sequential part. This leads to another learning framework: Supervised Advantage Actor-Critic (SA2C). We instantiate SNQN and SA2C with four state-of-the-art sequential recommendation models and conduct experiments on two real-world datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed approaches achieve significantly better performance than state-of-the-art supervised methods and existing self-supervised RL methods . Code will be open-sourced.
A Variational U-Net for Weather Forecasting
Authors: Pak Hay Kwok, Qi Qi
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Weather Forecasting

Not only can discovering patterns and insights from atmospheric data enable more accurate weather predictions, but it may also provide valuable information to help tackle climate change. Weather4cast is an open competition that aims to evaluate machine learning algorithms' capability to predict future atmospheric states. Here, we describe our third-place solution to Weather4cast. We present a novel Variational U-Net that combines a Variational Autoencoder's ability to consider the probabilistic nature of data with a U-Net's ability to recover fine-grained details. This solution is an evolution from our fourth-place solution to Traffic4cast 2020 with many commonalities, suggesting its applicability to vastly different domains, such as weather and traffic.
Automated Supervised Feature Selection for Differentiated Patterns of Care
Authors: Catherine Wanjiru, William Ogallo, Girmaw Abebe Tadesse, Charles Wachira, Isaiah Onando Mulang', Aisha Walcott-Bryant
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: feature selection

An automated feature selection pipeline was developed using several state-of-the-art feature selection techniques to select optimal features for Differentiating Patterns of Care (DPOC). The pipeline included three types of feature selection techniques; Filters, Wrappers and Embedded methods to select the top K features. Five different datasets with binary dependent variables were used and their different top K optimal features selected. The selected features were tested in the existing multi-dimensional subset scanning (MDSS) where the most anomalous subpopulations, most anomalous subsets, propensity scores, and effect of measures were recorded to test their performance. This performance was compared with four similar metrics gained after using all covariates in the dataset in the MDSS pipeline. We found out that despite the different feature selection techniques used, the data distribution is key to note when determining the technique to use.
Data Selection for Efficient Model Update in Federated Learning
Authors: Hongrui Shi, Valentin Radu
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Federated Learning, Transfer Learning

The Federated Learning (FL) workflow of training a centralized model with distributed data is growing in popularity. However, until recently, this was the realm of contributing clients with similar computing capability. The fast expanding IoT space and data being generated and processed at the edge are encouraging more effort into expanding federated learning to include heterogeneous systems. Previous approaches distribute light-weight models to clients are rely on knowledge transfer to distil the characteristic of local data in partitioned updates. However, their additional knowledge exchange transmitted through the network degrades the communication efficiency of FL. We propose to reduce the size of knowledge exchanged in these FL setups by clustering and selecting only the most representative bits of information from the clients. The partitioned global update adopted in our work splits the global deep neural network into a lower part for generic feature extraction and an upper part that is more sensitive to this selected client knowledge. Our experiments show that only 1.6% of the initially exchanged data can effectively transfer the characteristic of the client data to the global model in our FL approach, using split networks. These preliminary results evolve our understanding of federated learning by demonstrating efficient training using strategically selected training samples.
Solving the Class Imbalance Problem Using a Counterfactual Method for Data Augmentation
Authors: Mohammed Temraz, Mark T. Keane
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: counterfactual, Data Augmentation

Learning from class imbalanced datasets poses challenges for many machine learning algorithms. Many real-world domains are, by definition, class imbalanced by virtue of having a majority class that naturally has many more instances than its minority class (e.g. genuine bank transactions occur much more often than fraudulent ones). Many methods have been proposed to solve the class imbalance problem, among the most popular being oversampling techniques (such as SMOTE). These methods generate synthetic instances in the minority class, to balance the dataset, performing data augmentations that improve the performance of predictive machine learning (ML) models. In this paper we advance a novel data augmentation method (adapted from eXplainable AI), that generates synthetic, counterfactual instances in the minority class. Unlike other oversampling techniques, this method adaptively combines exist-ing instances from the dataset, using actual feature-values rather than interpolating values between instances. Several experiments using four different classifiers and 25 datasets are reported, which show that this Counterfactual Augmentation method (CFA) generates useful synthetic data points in the minority class. The experiments also show that CFA is competitive with many other oversampling methods many of which are variants of SMOTE. The basis for CFAs performance is discussed, along with the conditions under which it is likely to perform better or worse in future tests.
S-multi-SNE: Semi-Supervised Classification and Visualisation of Multi-View Data
Authors: Theodoulos Rodosthenous, Vahid Shahrezaei, Marina Evangelou
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00

An increasing number of multi-view data are being published by studies in several fields. This type of data corresponds to multiple data-views, each representing a different aspect of the same set of samples. We have recently proposed multi-SNE, an extension of t-SNE, that produces a single visualisation of multi-view data. The multi-SNE approach provides low-dimensional embeddings of the samples, produced by being updated iteratively through the different data-views. Here, we further extend multi-SNE to a semi-supervised approach, that classifies unlabelled samples by regarding the labelling information as an extra data-view. We look deeper into the performance, limitations and strengths of multi-SNE and its extension, S-multi-SNE, by applying the two methods on various multi-view datasets with different challenges. We show that by including the labelling information, the projection of the samples improves drastically and it is accompanied by a strong classification performance.
A Data-driven Approach to Neural Architecture Search Initialization
Authors: Kalifou René Traoré, Andrés Camero, Xiao Xiang Zhu
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Neural Architecture Search

Algorithmic design in neural architecture search (NAS) has received a lot of attention, aiming to improve performance and reduce computational cost. Despite the great advances made, few authors have proposed to tailor initialization techniques for NAS. However, literature shows that a good initial set of solutions facilitate finding the optima. Therefore, in this study, we propose a data-driven technique to initialize a population-based NAS algorithm. Particularly, we proposed a two-step methodology. First, we perform a calibrated clustering analysis of the search space, and second, we extract the centroids and use them to initialize a NAS algorithm. We benchmark our proposed approach against random and Latin hypercube sampling initialization using three population-based algorithms, namely a genetic algorithm, evolutionary algorithm, and aging evolution, on CIFAR-10. More specifically, we use NAS-Bench-101 to leverage the availability of NAS benchmarks. The results show that compared to random and Latin hypercube sampling, the proposed initialization technique enables achieving significant long-term improvements for two of the search baselines, and sometimes in various search scenarios (various training budgets). Moreover, we analyze the distributions of solutions obtained and find that that the population provided by the data-driven initialization technique enables retrieving local optima (maxima) of high fitness and similar configurations.
A Retrospective Analysis using Deep-Learning Models for Prediction of Survival Outcome and Benefit of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Stage II/III Colorectal Cancer
Authors: Xingyu Li, Jitendra Jonnagaddala, Shuhua Yang, Hong Zhang, Xu Steven Xu
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Prognosis, whole slide images

Most early-stage colorectal cancer (CRC) patients can be cured by surgery alone, and only certain high-risk early-stage CRC patients benefit from adjuvant chemotherapies. However, very few validated biomarkers are available to accurately predict survival benefit from postoperative chemotherapy. We developed a novel deep-learning algorithm (CRCNet) using whole-slide images from Molecular and Cellular Oncology (MCO) to predict survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II/III CRC. We validated CRCNet both internally through cross-validation and externally using an independent cohort from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We showed that CRCNet can accurately predict not only survival prognosis but also the treatment effect of adjuvant chemotherapy. The CRCNet identified high-risk subgroup benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy most and significant longer survival is observed among chemo-treated patients. Conversely, minimal chemotherapy benefit is observed in the CRCNet low- and medium-risk subgroups. Therefore, CRCNet can potentially be of great use in guiding treatments for Stage II/III CRC.
An Analysis of Elephants' Movement Data in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Clustering
Authors: Gregory Glatzer, Prasenjit Mitra, Johnson Kinyua
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering

Understanding the movement of animals is crucial to conservation efforts. Past research often focuses on factors affecting movement, rather than locations of interest that animals return to or habitat. We explore the use of clustering to identify locations of interest to African Elephants in regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis was performed using publicly available datasets for tracking African elephants at Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa; Etosha National Park, Namibia; as well as areas in Burkina Faso and the Congo. Using the DBSCAN and KMeans clustering algorithms, we calculate clusters and centroids to simplify elephant movement data and highlight important locations of interest. Through a comparison of feature spaces with and without temperature, we show that temperature is an important feature to explain movement clustering. Recognizing the importance of temperature, we develop a technique to add external temperature data from an API to other geospatial datasets that would otherwise not have temperature data. After addressing the hurdles of using external data with marginally different timestamps, we consider the quality of this data, and the quality of the centroids of the clusters calculated based on this external temperature data. Finally, we overlay these centroids onto satellite imagery and locations of human settlements to validate the real-life applications of the calculated centroids to identify locations of interest for elephants. As expected, we confirmed that elephants tend to cluster their movement around sources of water as well as some human settlements, especially those with water holes. Identifying key locations of interest for elephants is beneficial in predicting the movement of elephants and preventing poaching. These methods may in the future be applied to other animals beyond elephants to identify locations of interests for them.
A Unified Game-Theoretic Interpretation of Adversarial Robustness
Authors: Jie Ren, Die Zhang, Yisen Wang, Lu Chen, Zhanpeng Zhou, Yiting Chen, Xu Cheng, Xin Wang, Meng Zhou, Jie Shi, Quanshi Zhang
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Adversarial Robustness

This paper provides a unified view to explain different adversarial attacks and defense methods, \emph{i.e.} the view of multi-order interactions between input variables of DNNs. Based on the multi-order interaction, we discover that adversarial attacks mainly affect high-order interactions to fool the DNN. Furthermore, we find that the robustness of adversarially trained DNNs comes from category-specific low-order interactions. Our findings provide a potential method to unify adversarial perturbations and robustness, which can explain the existing defense methods in a principle way. Besides, our findings also make a revision of previous inaccurate understanding of the shape bias of adversarially learned features.
Empirical analysis of representation learning and exploration in neural kernel bandits
Authors: Michal Lisicki, Arash Afkanpour, Graham W. Taylor
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Inference, Decision Making, Gaussian Processes, Multi-Armed Bandits, Representation Learning

Neural bandits have been shown to provide an efficient solution to practical sequential decision tasks that have nonlinear reward functions. The main contributor to that success is approximate Bayesian inference, which enables neural network (NN) training with uncertainty estimates. However, Bayesian NNs often suffer from a prohibitive computational overhead or operate on a subset of parameters. Alternatively, certain classes of infinite neural networks were shown to directly correspond to Gaussian processes (GP) with neural kernels (NK). NK-GPs provide accurate uncertainty estimates and can be trained faster than most Bayesian NNs. We propose to guide common bandit policies with NK distributions and show that NK bandits achieve state-of-the-art performance on nonlinear structured data. Moreover, we propose a framework for measuring independently the ability of a bandit algorithm to learn representations and explore, and use it to analyze the impact of NK distributions w.r.t.~those two aspects. We consider policies based on a GP and a Student's t-process (TP). Furthermore, we study practical considerations, such as training frequency and model partitioning. We believe our work will help better understand the impact of utilizing NKs in applied settings.
AUTOKD: Automatic Knowledge Distillation Into A Student Architecture Family
Authors: Roy Henha Eyono, Fabio Maria Carlucci, Pedro M Esperança, Binxin Ru, Phillip Torr
Date: 2021-11-05 00:00:00
Tasks: Bayesian Optimization, Knowledge Distillation, Neural Architecture Search

State-of-the-art results in deep learning have been improving steadily, in good part due to the use of larger models. However, widespread use is constrained by device hardware limitations, resulting in a substantial performance gap between state-of-the-art models and those that can be effectively deployed on small devices. While Knowledge Distillation (KD) theoretically enables small student models to emulate larger teacher models, in practice selecting a good student architecture requires considerable human expertise. Neural Architecture Search (NAS) appears as a natural solution to this problem but most approaches can be inefficient, as most of the computation is spent comparing architectures sampled from the same distribution, with negligible differences in performance. In this paper, we propose to instead search for a family of student architectures sharing the property of being good at learning from a given teacher. Our approach AutoKD, powered by Bayesian Optimization, explores a flexible graph-based search space, enabling us to automatically learn the optimal student architecture distribution and KD parameters, while being 20x more sample efficient compared to existing state-of-the-art. We evaluate our method on 3 datasets; on large images specifically, we reach the teacher performance while using 3x less memory and 10x less parameters. Finally, while AutoKD uses the traditional KD loss, it outperforms more advanced KD variants using hand-designed students.