pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Nested Mixture of Experts: Cooperative and Competitive Learning of Hybrid Dynamical System
Authors: Junhyeok Ahn, Luis Sentis
Date: 2020-11-20 00:00:00
Tasks: continuous-control, Continuous Control, Mixture-of-Experts, Model-based Reinforcement Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) algorithms can attain significant sample efficiency but require an appropriate network structure to represent system dynamics. Current approaches include white-box modeling using analytic parameterizations and black-box modeling using deep neural networks. However, both can suffer from a bias-variance trade-off in the learning process, and neither provides a structured method for injecting domain knowledge into the network. As an alternative, gray-box modeling leverages prior knowledge in neural network training but only for simple systems. In this paper, we devise a nested mixture of experts (NMOE) for representing and learning hybrid dynamical systems. An NMOE combines both white-box and black-box models while optimizing bias-variance trade-off. Moreover, an NMOE provides a structured method for incorporating various types of prior knowledge by training the associative experts cooperatively or competitively. The prior knowledge includes information on robots' physical contacts with the environments as well as their kinematic and dynamic properties. In this paper, we demonstrate how to incorporate prior knowledge into our NMOE in various continuous control domains, including hybrid dynamical systems. We also show the effectiveness of our method in terms of data-efficiency, generalization to unseen data, and bias-variance trade-off. Finally, we evaluate our NMOE using an MBRL setup, where the model is integrated with a model-based controller and trained online.
Adversarial Training for EM Classification Networks
Authors: Tom Grimes, Eric Church, William Pitts, Lynn Wood, Eva Brayfindley, Luke Erikson, Mark Greaves
Date: 2020-11-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, General Classification, Hyperparameter Optimization

We present a novel variant of Domain Adversarial Networks with impactful improvements to the loss functions, training paradigm, and hyperparameter optimization. New loss functions are defined for both forks of the DANN network, the label predictor and domain classifier, in order to facilitate more rapid gradient descent, provide more seamless integration into modern neural networking frameworks, and allow previously unavailable inferences into network behavior. Using these loss functions, it is possible to extend the concept of 'domain' to include arbitrary user defined labels applicable to subsets of the training data, the test data, or both. As such, the network can be operated in either 'On the Fly' mode where features provided by the feature extractor indicative of differences between 'domain' labels in the training data are removed or in 'Test Collection Informed' mode where features indicative of difference between 'domain' labels in the combined training and test data are removed (without needing to know or provide test activity labels to the network). This work also draws heavily from previous works on Robust Training which draws training examples from a L_inf ball around the training data in order to remove fragile features induced by random fluctuations in the data. On these networks we explore the process of hyperparameter optimization for both the domain adversarial and robust hyperparameters. Finally, this network is applied to the construction of a binary classifier used to identify the presence of EM signal emitted by a turbopump. For this example, the effect of the robust and domain adversarial training is to remove features indicative of the difference in background between instances of operation of the device - providing highly discriminative features on which to construct the classifier.
Bridging Physics-based and Data-driven modeling for Learning Dynamical Systems
Authors: Rui Wang, Danielle Maddix, Christos Faloutsos, Yuyang Wang, Rose Yu
Date: 2020-11-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Learning

How can we learn a dynamical system to make forecasts, when some variables are unobserved? For instance, in COVID-19, we want to forecast the number of infected and death cases but we do not know the count of susceptible and exposed people. While mechanics compartment models are widely used in epidemic modeling, data-driven models are emerging for disease forecasting. We first formalize the learning of physics-based models as AutoODE, which leverages automatic differentiation to estimate the model parameters. Through a benchmark study on COVID-19 forecasting, we notice that physics-based mechanistic models significantly outperform deep learning. Our method obtains a 57.4% reduction in mean absolute errors for 7-day ahead COVID-19 forecasting compared with the best deep learning competitor. Such performance differences highlight the generalization problem in dynamical system learning due to distribution shift. We identify two scenarios where distribution shift can occur: changes in data domain and changes in parameter domain (system dynamics). Through systematic experiments on several dynamical systems, we found that deep learning models fail to forecast well under both scenarios. While much research on distribution shift has focused on changes in the data domain, our work calls attention to rethink generalization for learning dynamical systems.
On the Benefits of Multiple Gossip Steps in Communication-Constrained Decentralized Optimization
Authors: Abolfazl Hashemi, Anish Acharya, Rudrajit Das, Haris Vikalo, Sujay Sanghavi, Inderjit Dhillon
Date: 2020-11-20 00:00:00

In decentralized optimization, it is common algorithmic practice to have nodes interleave (local) gradient descent iterations with gossip (i.e. averaging over the network) steps. Motivated by the training of large-scale machine learning models, it is also increasingly common to require that messages be {\em lossy compressed} versions of the local parameters. In this paper, we show that, in such compressed decentralized optimization settings, there are benefits to having {\em multiple} gossip steps between subsequent gradient iterations, even when the cost of doing so is appropriately accounted for e.g. by means of reducing the precision of compressed information. In particular, we show that having $O(\log\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ gradient iterations {with constant step size} - and $O(\log\frac{1}{\epsilon})$ gossip steps between every pair of these iterations - enables convergence to within $\epsilon$ of the optimal value for smooth non-convex objectives satisfying Polyak-\L{}ojasiewicz condition. This result also holds for smooth strongly convex objectives. To our knowledge, this is the first work that derives convergence results for nonconvex optimization under arbitrary communication compression.
Very Deep VAEs Generalize Autoregressive Models and Can Outperform Them on Images
Authors: Rewon Child
Date: 2020-11-20 00:00:00
Proceeding: ICLR 2021 1
Tasks: Image Generation

We present a hierarchical VAE that, for the first time, generates samples quickly while outperforming the PixelCNN in log-likelihood on all natural image benchmarks. We begin by observing that, in theory, VAEs can actually represent autoregressive models, as well as faster, better models if they exist, when made sufficiently deep. Despite this, autoregressive models have historically outperformed VAEs in log-likelihood. We test if insufficient depth explains why by scaling a VAE to greater stochastic depth than previously explored and evaluating it CIFAR-10, ImageNet, and FFHQ. In comparison to the PixelCNN, these very deep VAEs achieve higher likelihoods, use fewer parameters, generate samples thousands of times faster, and are more easily applied to high-resolution images. Qualitative studies suggest this is because the VAE learns efficient hierarchical visual representations. We release our source code and models at https://github.com/openai/vdvae.
Enhancing Poaching Predictions for Under-Resourced Wildlife Conservation Parks Using Remote Sensing Imagery
Authors: Rachel Guo, Lily Xu, Drew Cronin, Francis Okeke, Andrew Plumptre, Milind Tambe
Date: 2020-11-20 00:00:00

Illegal wildlife poaching is driving the loss of biodiversity. To combat poaching, rangers patrol expansive protected areas for illegal poaching activity. However, rangers often cannot comprehensively search such large parks. Thus, the Protection Assistant for Wildlife Security (PAWS) was introduced as a machine learning approach to help identify the areas with highest poaching risk. As PAWS is deployed to parks around the world, we recognized that many parks have limited resources for data collection and therefore have scarce feature sets. To ensure under-resourced parks have access to meaningful poaching predictions, we introduce the use of publicly available remote sensing data to extract features for parks. By employing this data from Google Earth Engine, we also incorporate previously unavailable dynamic data to enrich predictions with seasonal trends. We automate the entire data-to-deployment pipeline and find that, with only using publicly available data, we recuperate prediction performance comparable to predictions made using features manually computed by park specialists. We conclude that the inclusion of satellite imagery creates a robust system through which parks of any resource level can benefit from poaching risks for years to come.
Self-adapting Robustness in Demand Learning
Authors: Boxiao Chen, Selvaprabu Nadarajah, Parshan Pakiman, Stefanus Jasin
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00

We study dynamic pricing over a finite number of periods in the presence of demand model ambiguity. Departing from the typical no-regret learning environment, where price changes are allowed at any time, pricing decisions are made at pre-specified points in time and each price can be applied to a large number of arrivals. In this environment, which arises in retailing, a pricing decision based on an incorrect demand model can significantly impact cumulative revenue. We develop an adaptively-robust-learning (ARL) pricing policy that learns the true model parameters from the data while actively managing demand model ambiguity. It optimizes an objective that is robust with respect to a self-adapting set of demand models, where a given model is included in this set only if the sales data revealed from prior pricing decisions makes it "probable". As a result, it gracefully transitions from being robust when demand model ambiguity is high to minimizing regret when this ambiguity diminishes upon receiving more data. We characterize the stochastic behavior of ARL's self-adapting ambiguity sets and derive a regret bound that highlights the link between the scale of revenue loss and the customer arrival pattern. We also show that ARL, by being conscious of both model ambiguity and revenue, bridges the gap between a distributionally robust policy and a follow-the-leader policy, which focus on model ambiguity and revenue, respectively. We numerically find that the ARL policy, or its extension thereof, exhibits superior performance compared to distributionally robust, follow-the-leader, and upper-confidence-bound policies in terms of expected revenue and/or value at risk.
Near-Optimal Data Source Selection for Bayesian Learning
Authors: Lintao Ye, Aritra Mitra, Shreyas Sundaram
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00

We study a fundamental problem in Bayesian learning, where the goal is to select a set of data sources with minimum cost while achieving a certain learning performance based on the data streams provided by the selected data sources. First, we show that the data source selection problem for Bayesian learning is NP-hard. We then show that the data source selection problem can be transformed into an instance of the submodular set covering problem studied in the literature, and provide a standard greedy algorithm to solve the data source selection problem with provable performance guarantees. Next, we propose a fast greedy algorithm that improves the running times of the standard greedy algorithm, while achieving performance guarantees that are comparable to those of the standard greedy algorithm. The fast greedy algorithm can also be applied to solve the general submodular set covering problem with performance guarantees. Finally, we validate the theoretical results using numerical examples, and show that the greedy algorithms work well in practice.
Double Meta-Learning for Data Efficient Policy Optimization in Non-Stationary Environments
Authors: Elahe Aghapour, Nora Ayanian
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Meta-Learning, Meta Reinforcement Learning, Multi-Task Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

We are interested in learning models of non-stationary environments, which can be framed as a multi-task learning problem. Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms can achieve good asymptotic performance in multi-task learning at a cost of extensive sampling, due to their approach, which requires learning from scratch. While model-based approaches are among the most data efficient learning algorithms, they still struggle with complex tasks and model uncertainties. Meta-reinforcement learning addresses the efficiency and generalization challenges on multi task learning by quickly leveraging the meta-prior policy for a new task. In this paper, we propose a meta-reinforcement learning approach to learn the dynamic model of a non-stationary environment to be used for meta-policy optimization later. Due to the sample efficiency of model-based learning methods, we are able to simultaneously train both the meta-model of the non-stationary environment and the meta-policy until dynamic model convergence. Then, the meta-learned dynamic model of the environment will generate simulated data for meta-policy optimization. Our experiment demonstrates that our proposed method can meta-learn the policy in a non-stationary environment with the data efficiency of model-based learning approaches while achieving the high asymptotic performance of model-free meta-reinforcement learning.
A Worrying Analysis of Probabilistic Time-series Models for Sales Forecasting
Authors: Seungjae Jung, Kyung-Min Kim, Hanock Kwak, Young-Jin Park
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS Workshop ICBINB 2020 12
Tasks: Feature Engineering, Time Series, Time Series Analysis

Probabilistic time-series models become popular in the forecasting field as they help to make optimal decisions under uncertainty. Despite the growing interest, a lack of thorough analysis hinders choosing what is worth applying for the desired task. In this paper, we analyze the performance of three prominent probabilistic time-series models for sales forecasting. To remove the role of random chance in architecture's performance, we make two experimental principles; 1) Large-scale dataset with various cross-validation sets. 2) A standardized training and hyperparameter selection. The experimental results show that a simple Multi-layer Perceptron and Linear Regression outperform the probabilistic models on RMSE without any feature engineering. Overall, the probabilistic models fail to achieve better performance on point estimation, such as RMSE and MAPE, than comparably simple baselines. We analyze and discuss the performances of probabilistic time-series models.
Neural-iLQR: A Learning-Aided Shooting Method for Trajectory Optimization
Authors: Zilong Cheng, Yulin Li, Kai Chen, Jun Ma, Tong Heng Lee
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00

Iterative linear quadratic regulator (iLQR) has gained wide popularity in addressing trajectory optimization problems with nonlinear system models. However, as a model-based shooting method, it relies heavily on an accurate system model to update the optimal control actions and the trajectory determined with forward integration, thus becoming vulnerable to inevitable model inaccuracies. Recently, substantial research efforts in learning-based methods for optimal control problems have been progressing significantly in addressing unknown system models, particularly when the system has complex interactions with the environment. Yet a deep neural network is normally required to fit substantial scale of sampling data. In this work, we present Neural-iLQR, a learning-aided shooting method over the unconstrained control space, in which a neural network with a simple structure is used to represent the local system model. In this framework, the trajectory optimization task is achieved with simultaneous refinement of the optimal policy and the neural network iteratively, without relying on the prior knowledge of the system model. Through comprehensive evaluations on two illustrative control tasks, the proposed method is shown to outperform the conventional iLQR significantly in the presence of inaccuracies in system models.
A Trace-restricted Kronecker-Factored Approximation to Natural Gradient
Authors: Kai-Xin Gao, Xiao-Lei Liu, Zheng-Hai Huang, Min Wang, Zidong Wang, Dachuan Xu, Fan Yu
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00

Second-order optimization methods have the ability to accelerate convergence by modifying the gradient through the curvature matrix. There have been many attempts to use second-order optimization methods for training deep neural networks. Inspired by diagonal approximations and factored approximations such as Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (KFAC), we propose a new approximation to the Fisher information matrix (FIM) called Trace-restricted Kronecker-factored Approximate Curvature (TKFAC) in this work, which can hold the certain trace relationship between the exact and the approximate FIM. In TKFAC, we decompose each block of the approximate FIM as a Kronecker product of two smaller matrices and scaled by a coefficient related to trace. We theoretically analyze TKFAC's approximation error and give an upper bound of it. We also propose a new damping technique for TKFAC on convolutional neural networks to maintain the superiority of second-order optimization methods during training. Experiments show that our method has better performance compared with several state-of-the-art algorithms on some deep network architectures.
Computation harvesting in road traffic dynamics
Authors: Hiroyasu Ando, T. Okamoto, H. Chang, T. Noguchi, Shinji Nakaoka
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00

Owing to recent advances in artificial intelligence and internet of things (IoT) technologies, collected big data facilitates high computational performance, while its computational resources and energy cost are large. Moreover, data are often collected but not used. To solve these problems, we propose a framework for a computational model that follows a natural computational system, such as the human brain, and does not rely heavily on electronic computers. In particular, we propose a methodology based on the concept of `computation harvesting', which uses IoT data collected from rich sensors and leaves most of the computational processes to real-world phenomena as collected data. This aspect assumes that large-scale computations can be fast and resilient. Herein, we perform prediction tasks using real-world road traffic data to show the feasibility of computation harvesting. First, we show that the substantial computation in traffic flow is resilient against sensor failure and real-time traffic changes due to several combinations of harvesting from spatiotemporal dynamics to synthesize specific patterns. Next, we show the practicality of this method as a real-time prediction because of its low computational cost. Finally, we show that, compared to conventional methods, our method requires lower resources while providing a comparable performance.
Emergent Road Rules In Multi-Agent Driving Environments
Authors: Avik Pal, Jonah Philion, Yuan-Hong Liao, Sanja Fidler
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00
Proceeding: ICLR 2021 1
Tasks: Autonomous Vehicles

For autonomous vehicles to safely share the road with human drivers, autonomous vehicles must abide by specific "road rules" that human drivers have agreed to follow. "Road rules" include rules that drivers are required to follow by law -- such as the requirement that vehicles stop at red lights -- as well as more subtle social rules -- such as the implicit designation of fast lanes on the highway. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that suggests that -- instead of hard-coding road rules into self-driving algorithms -- a scalable alternative may be to design multi-agent environments in which road rules emerge as optimal solutions to the problem of maximizing traffic flow. We analyze what ingredients in driving environments cause the emergence of these road rules and find that two crucial factors are noisy perception and agents' spatial density. We provide qualitative and quantitative evidence of the emergence of seven social driving behaviors, ranging from obeying traffic signals to following lanes, all of which emerge from training agents to drive quickly to destinations without colliding. Our results add empirical support for the social road rules that countries worldwide have agreed on for safe, efficient driving.
Adversarial Classification: Necessary conditions and geometric flows
Authors: Nicolas Garcia Trillos, Ryan Murray
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, General Classification

We study a version of adversarial classification where an adversary is empowered to corrupt data inputs up to some distance $\varepsilon$, using tools from variational analysis. In particular, we describe necessary conditions associated with the optimal classifier subject to such an adversary. Using the necessary conditions, we derive a geometric evolution equation which can be used to track the change in classification boundaries as $\varepsilon$ varies. This evolution equation may be described as an uncoupled system of differential equations in one dimension, or as a mean curvature type equation in higher dimension. In one dimension, and under mild assumptions on the data distribution, we rigorously prove that one can use the initial value problem starting from $\varepsilon=0$, which is simply the Bayes classifier, in order to solve for the global minimizer of the adversarial problem for small values of $\varepsilon$. In higher dimensions we provide a similar result, albeit conditional to the existence of regular solutions of the initial value problem. In the process of proving our main results we obtain a result of independent interest connecting the original adversarial problem with an optimal transport problem under no assumptions on whether classes are balanced or not. Numerical examples illustrating these ideas are also presented.
Deep Smartphone Sensors-WiFi Fusion for Indoor Positioning and Tracking
Authors: Leonid Antsfeld, Boris Chidlovskii, Emilio Sansano-Sansano
Date: 2020-11-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Indoor Localization, Position

We address the indoor localization problem, where the goal is to predict user's trajectory from the data collected by their smartphone, using inertial sensors such as accelerometer, gyroscope and magnetometer, as well as other environment and network sensors such as barometer and WiFi. Our system implements a deep learning based pedestrian dead reckoning (deep PDR) model that provides a high-rate estimation of the relative position of the user. Using Kalman Filter, we correct the PDR's drift using WiFi that provides a prediction of the user's absolute position each time a WiFi scan is received. Finally, we adjust Kalman Filter results with a map-free projection method that takes into account the physical constraints of the environment (corridors, doors, etc.) and projects the prediction on the possible walkable paths. We test our pipeline on IPIN'19 Indoor Localization challenge dataset and demonstrate that it improves the winner's results by 20\% using the challenge evaluation protocol.