pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Bias and variance of the Bayesian-mean decoder
Authors: Arthur Prat-Carrabin, Michael Woodford
Date: 2021-05-28 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2021 12
Tasks: Decoder

Perception, in theoretical neuroscience, has been modeled as the encoding of external stimuli into internal signals, which are then decoded. The Bayesian mean is an important decoder, as it is optimal for purposes of both estimation and discrimination. We present widely-applicable approximations to the bias and to the variance of the Bayesian mean, obtained under the minimal and biologically-relevant assumption that the encoding results from a series of independent, though not necessarily identically-distributed, signals. Simulations substantiate the accuracy of our approximations in the small-noise regime. The bias of the Bayesian mean comprises two components: one driven by the prior, and one driven by the precision of the encoding. If the encoding is 'efficient', the two components have opposite effects; their relative strengths are determined by the objective that the encoding optimizes. The experimental literature on perception reports both 'Bayesian' biases directed towards prior expectations, and opposite, 'anti-Bayesian' biases. We show that different tasks are indeed predicted to yield such contradictory biases, under a consistently-optimal encoding-decoding model. Moreover, we recover Wei and Stocker's "law of human perception", a relation between the bias of the Bayesian mean and the derivative of its variance, and show how the coefficient of proportionality in this law depends on the task at hand. Our results provide a parsimonious theory of optimal perception under constraints, in which encoding and decoding are adapted both to the prior and to the task faced by the observer.
Technical comment on The impact of population-wide rapid antigen testing on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in Slovakia
Authors: Matus Medo, Martin Suster, Katarina Bodova, Alexandra Brazinova, Brona Brejova, Richard Kollar, Vladimir Leksa, Jana Lindbloom, Jozef Nosek, Tomas Vinar
Date: 2021-05-28 00:00:00

Pavelka et al. (Science, Reports, 7 May 2021) claim that a single round of population-wide antigen testing in Slovakia reduced the observed COVID-19 prevalence by 58%, and that it played a substantial role in curbing the pandemic. We argue that this estimate, which is based on incorrect assumptions, is exaggerated, and that the relief was short-lived with little effect on mitigating the pandemic.
Behavior of Liquidity Providers in Decentralized Exchanges
Authors: Lioba Heimbach, Ye Wang, Roger Wattenhofer
Date: 2021-05-28 00:00:00

Decentralized exchanges (DEXes) have introduced an innovative trading mechanism, where it is not necessary to match buy-orders and sell-orders to execute a trade. DEXes execute each trade individually, and the exchange rate is automatically determined by the ratio of assets reserved in the market. Therefore, apart from trading, financial players can also liquidity providers, benefiting from transaction fees from trades executed in DEXes. Although liquidity providers are essential for the functionality of DEXes, it is not clear how liquidity providers behave in such markets. In this paper, we aim to understand how liquidity providers react to market information and how they benefit from providing liquidity in DEXes. We measure the operations of liquidity providers on Uniswap and analyze how they determine their investment strategy based on market changes. We also reveal their returns and risks of investments in different trading pair categories, i.e., stable pairs, normal pairs, and exotic pairs. Further, we investigate the movement of liquidity between trading pools. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that systematically studies the behavior of liquidity providers in DEXes.
SoK: Yield Aggregators in DeFi
Authors: Simon Cousaert, Jiahua Xu, Toshiko Matsui
Date: 2021-05-28 00:00:00

Yield farming has been an immensely popular activity for cryptocurrency holders since the explosion of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) in the summer of 2020. In this Systematization of Knowledge (SoK), we study a general framework for yield farming strategies with empirical analysis. First, we summarize the fundamentals of yield farming by focusing on the protocols and tokens used by aggregators. We then examine the sources of yield and translate those into three example yield farming strategies, followed by the simulations of yield farming performance, based on these strategies. We further compare four major yield aggregrators -- Idle, Pickle, Harvest and Yearn -- in the ecosystem, along with brief introductions of others. We systematize their strategies and revenue models, and conduct an empirical analysis with on-chain data from example vaults, to find a plausible connection between data anomalies and historical events. Finally, we discuss the benefits and risks of yield aggregators.
Learning about latent dynamic trading demand
Authors: Xiao Chen, Jin Hyuk Choi, Kasper Larsen, Duane J. Seppi
Date: 2021-05-27 00:00:00

This paper presents an equilibrium model of dynamic trading, learning, and pricing by strategic investors with trading targets and price impact. Since trading targets are private, rebalancers and liquidity providers filter the child order flow over time to estimate the latent underlying parent trading demand imbalance and its expected impact on subsequent price pressure dynamics. We prove existence of the equilibrium and solve for equilibrium trading strategies and prices in terms of the solution to a system of coupled ODEs. We show that trading strategies are combinations of trading towards investor targets, liquidity provision for other investors' demands, and front-running based on learning about latent underlying trading demand imbalances and future price pressure.
A Probabilistic Forecast-Driven Strategy for a Risk-Aware Participation in the Capacity Firming Market: extended version
Authors: Jonathan Dumas, Colin Cointe, Antoine Wehenkel, Antonio Sutera, Xavier Fettweis, Bertrand Cornélusse
Date: 2021-05-28 00:00:00
Tasks: energy management, Management

This paper addresses the energy management of a grid-connected renewable generation plant coupled with a battery energy storage device in the capacity firming market, designed to promote renewable power generation facilities in small non-interconnected grids. The core contribution is to propose a probabilistic forecast-driven strategy, modeled as a min-max-min robust optimization problem with recourse. It is solved using a Benders-dual cutting plane algorithm and a column and constraints generation algorithm in a tractable manner. A dynamic risk-averse parameters selection strategy based on the quantile forecasts distribution is proposed to improve the results. A secondary contribution is to use a recently developed deep learning model known as normalizing flows to generate quantile forecasts of renewable generation for the robust optimization problem. This technique provides a general mechanism for defining expressive probability distributions, only requiring the specification of a base distribution and a series of bijective transformations. Overall, the robust approach improves the results over a deterministic approach with nominal point forecasts by finding a trade-off between conservative and risk-seeking policies. The case study uses the photovoltaic generation monitored on-site at the University of Li\`ege (ULi\`ege), Belgium.
Achieving Fairness with a Simple Ridge Penalty
Authors: Marco Scutari, Francesca Panero, Manuel Proissl
Date: 2021-05-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Fairness, Model Selection, regression

In this paper we present a general framework for estimating regression models subject to a user-defined level of fairness. We enforce fairness as a model selection step in which we choose the value of a ridge penalty to control the effect of sensitive attributes. We then estimate the parameters of the model conditional on the chosen penalty value. Our proposal is mathematically simple, with a solution that is partly in closed form, and produces estimates of the regression coefficients that are intuitive to interpret as a function of the level of fairness. Furthermore, it is easily extended to generalised linear models, kernelised regression models and other penalties; and it can accommodate multiple definitions of fairness. We compare our approach with the regression model from Komiyama et al. (2018), which implements a provably-optimal linear regression model; and with the fair models from Zafar et al. (2019). We evaluate these approaches empirically on six different data sets, and we find that our proposal provides better goodness of fit and better predictive accuracy for the same level of fairness. In addition, we highlight a source of bias in the original experimental evaluation in Komiyama et al. (2018).
Exploiting Transductive Property of Graph Convolutional Neural Networks with Less Labeling Effort
Authors: Yasir Kilic
Date: 2021-05-01 00:00:00

Recently, machine learning approaches on Graph data have become very popular. It was observed that significant results were obtained by including implicit or explicit logical connections between data samples that make up the data to the model. In this context, the developing GCN model has made significant experimental contributions with Convolution filters applied to graph data. This model follows Transductive and Semi-Supervised Learning approach. Due to its transductive property, all of the data samples, which is partially labeled, are given as input to the model. Labeling, which is a cost, is very important. Within the scope of this study, the following research question is tried to be answered: If at least how many samples are labeled, the optimum model success is achieved? In addition, some experimental contributions have been made on the accuracy of the model, whichever sampling approach is used with fixed labeling effort. According to the experiments, the success of the model can be increased by using the local centrality metric.
DRL: Deep Reinforcement Learning for Intelligent Robot Control -- Concept, Literature, and Future
Authors: Aras Dargazany
Date: 2021-04-20 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Reinforcement Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Combination of machine learning (for generating machine intelligence), computer vision (for better environment perception), and robotic systems (for controlled environment interaction) motivates this work toward proposing a vision-based learning framework for intelligent robot control as the ultimate goal (vision-based learning robot). This work specifically introduces deep reinforcement learning as the the learning framework, a General-purpose framework for AI (AGI) meaning application-independent and platform-independent. In terms of robot control, this framework is proposing specifically a high-level control architecture independent of the low-level control, meaning these two required level of control can be developed separately from each other. In this aspect, the high-level control creates the required intelligence for the control of the platform using the recorded low-level controlling data from that same platform generated by a trainer. The recorded low-level controlling data is simply indicating the successful and failed experiences or sequences of experiments conducted by a trainer using the same robotic platform. The sequences of the recorded data are composed of observation data (input sensor), generated reward (feedback value) and action data (output controller). For experimental platform and experiments, vision sensors are used for perception of the environment, different kinematic controllers create the required motion commands based on the platform application, deep learning approaches generate the required intelligence, and finally reinforcement learning techniques incrementally improve the generated intelligence until the mission is accomplished by the robot.
Gym-$μ$RTS: Toward Affordable Full Game Real-time Strategy Games Research with Deep Reinforcement Learning
Authors: Shengyi Huang, Santiago Ontañón, Chris Bamford, Lukasz Grela
Date: 2021-05-21 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Reinforcement Learning, GPU, Real-Time Strategy Games, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL), Starcraft, Starcraft II

In recent years, researchers have achieved great success in applying Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms to Real-time Strategy (RTS) games, creating strong autonomous agents that could defeat professional players in StarCraft~II. However, existing approaches to tackle full games have high computational costs, usually requiring the use of thousands of GPUs and CPUs for weeks. This paper has two main contributions to address this issue: 1) We introduce Gym-$\mu$RTS (pronounced "gym-micro-RTS") as a fast-to-run RL environment for full-game RTS research and 2) we present a collection of techniques to scale DRL to play full-game $\mu$RTS as well as ablation studies to demonstrate their empirical importance. Our best-trained bot can defeat every $\mu$RTS bot we tested from the past $\mu$RTS competitions when working in a single-map setting, resulting in a state-of-the-art DRL agent while only taking about 60 hours of training using a single machine (one GPU, three vCPU, 16GB RAM). See the blog post at https://wandb.ai/vwxyzjn/gym-microrts-paper/reports/Gym-RTS-Toward-Affordable-Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-Research-in-Real-Time-Strategy-Games--Vmlldzo2MDIzMTg and the source code at https://github.com/vwxyzjn/gym-microrts-paper
Distribution Matching for Machine Teaching
Authors: Xiaofeng Cao, Ivor W. Tsang
Date: 2021-05-06 00:00:00

Machine teaching is an inverse problem of machine learning that aims at steering the student learner towards its target hypothesis, in which the teacher has already known the student's learning parameters. Previous studies on machine teaching focused on balancing the teaching risk and cost to find those best teaching examples deriving the student model. This optimization solver is in general ineffective when the student learner does not disclose any cue of the learning parameters. To supervise such a teaching scenario, this paper presents a distribution matching-based machine teaching strategy. Specifically, this strategy backwardly and iteratively performs the halving operation on the teaching cost to find a desired teaching set. Technically, our strategy can be expressed as a cost-controlled optimization process that finds the optimal teaching examples without further exploring in the parameter distribution of the student learner. Then, given any a limited teaching cost, the training examples will be closed-form. Theoretical analysis and experiment results demonstrate this strategy.
Grey-box models for wave loading prediction
Authors: Daniel J Pitchforth, Timothy J Rogers, Ulf T Tygesen, Elizabeth J Cross
Date: 2021-05-10 00:00:00
Tasks: Physics-informed machine learning, Prediction

The quantification of wave loading on offshore structures and components is a crucial element in the assessment of their useful remaining life. In many applications the well-known Morison's equation is employed to estimate the forcing from waves with assumed particle velocities and accelerations. This paper develops a grey-box modelling approach to improve the predictions of the force on structural members. A grey-box model intends to exploit the enhanced predictive capabilities of data-based modelling whilst retaining physical insight into the behaviour of the system; in the context of the work carried out here, this can be considered as physics-informed machine learning. There are a number of possible approaches to establish a grey-box model. This paper demonstrates two means of combining physics (white box) and data-based (black box) components; one where the model is a simple summation of the two components, the second where the white-box prediction is fed into the black box as an additional input. Here Morison's equation is used as the physics-based component in combination with a data-based Gaussian process NARX - a dynamic variant of the more well-known Gaussian process regression. Two key challenges with employing the GP-NARX formulation that are addressed here are the selection of appropriate lag terms and the proper treatment of uncertainty propagation within the dynamic GP. The best performing grey-box model, the residual modelling GP-NARX, was able to achieve a 29.13\% and 5.48\% relative reduction in NMSE over Morison's Equation and a black-box GP-NARX respectively, alongside significant benefits in extrapolative capabilities of the model, in circumstances of low dataset coverage.
An unsupervised machine-learning checkpoint-restart algorithm using Gaussian mixtures for particle-in-cell simulations
Authors: Guangye Chen, Luis Chacón, Truong B. Nguyen
Date: 2021-03-17 00:00:00
Tasks: BIG-bench Machine Learning

We propose an unsupervised machine-learning checkpoint-restart (CR) lossy algorithm for particle-in-cell (PIC) algorithms using Gaussian mixtures (GM). The algorithm features a particle compression stage and a particle reconstruction stage, where a continuum particle distribution function is constructed and resampled, respectively. To guarantee fidelity of the CR process, we ensure the exact preservation of charge, momentum, and energy for both compression and reconstruction stages, everywhere on the mesh. We also ensure the preservation of Gauss' law after particle reconstruction. As a result, the GM CR algorithm is shown to provide a clean, conservative restart capability while potentially affording orders of magnitude savings in input/output requirements. We demonstrate the algorithm using a recently developed exactly energy- and charge-conserving PIC algorithm on physical problems of interest, with compression factors $\gtrsim75$ with no appreciable impact on the quality of the restarted dynamics.
ScalingNet: extracting features from raw EEG data for emotion recognition
Authors: Jingzhao Hu, Chen Wang, Qiaomei Jia, Qirong Bu, Jun Feng
Date: 2021-02-07 00:00:00
Tasks: EEG, Electroencephalogram (EEG), Emotion Recognition

Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs) has achieved remarkable performance breakthrough in a variety of tasks. Recently, CNNs based methods that are fed with hand-extracted EEG features gradually produce a powerful performance on the EEG data based emotion recognition task. In this paper, we propose a novel convolutional layer allowing to adaptively extract effective data-driven spectrogram-like features from raw EEG signals, which we reference as scaling layer. Further, it leverages convolutional kernels scaled from one data-driven pattern to exposed a frequency-like dimension to address the shortcomings of prior methods requiring hand-extracted features or their approximations. The proposed neural network architecture based on the scaling layer, references as ScalingNet, has achieved the state-of-the-art result across the established DEAP benchmark dataset.
RISEdb: a Novel Indoor Localization Dataset
Authors: Carlos Sanchez-Belenguer, Erik Wolfart, Alvaro Casado-Coscolla, Vitor Sequeira
Date: 2021-01-10 00:00:00
Tasks: Benchmarking, Indoor Localization

In this paper we introduce a novel public dataset for developing and benchmarking indoor localization systems. We have selected and 3D mapped a set of representative indoor environments including a large office building, a conference room, a workshop, an exhibition area and a restaurant. Our acquisition pipeline is based on a portable LiDAR SLAM backpack to map the buildings and to accurately track the pose of the user as it moves freely inside them. We introduce the calibration procedures that enable us to acquire and geo-reference live data coming from different independent sensors rigidly attached to the backpack. This has allowed us to collect long sequences of spherical and stereo images, together with all the sensor readings coming from a consumer smartphone and locate them inside the map with centimetre accuracy. The dataset addresses many of the limitations of existing indoor localization datasets regarding the scale and diversity of the mapped buildings; the number of acquired sequences under varying conditions; the accuracy of the ground-truth trajectory; the availability of a detailed 3D model and the availability of different sensor types. It enables the benchmarking of existing and the development of new indoor localization approaches, in particular for deep learning based systems that require large amounts of labeled training data.
Image-to-Video Generation via 3D Facial Dynamics
Authors: Xiaoguang Tu, Yingtian Zou, Jian Zhao, Wenjie Ai, Jian Dong, Yuan YAO, Zhikang Wang, Guodong Guo, Zhifeng Li, Wei Liu, Jiashi Feng
Date: 2021-05-31 00:00:00
Tasks: Image to Video Generation, Video Generation, Video Prediction

We present a versatile model, FaceAnime, for various video generation tasks from still images. Video generation from a single face image is an interesting problem and usually tackled by utilizing Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to integrate information from the input face image and a sequence of sparse facial landmarks. However, the generated face images usually suffer from quality loss, image distortion, identity change, and expression mismatching due to the weak representation capacity of the facial landmarks. In this paper, we propose to "imagine" a face video from a single face image according to the reconstructed 3D face dynamics, aiming to generate a realistic and identity-preserving face video, with precisely predicted pose and facial expression. The 3D dynamics reveal changes of the facial expression and motion, and can serve as a strong prior knowledge for guiding highly realistic face video generation. In particular, we explore face video prediction and exploit a well-designed 3D dynamic prediction network to predict a 3D dynamic sequence for a single face image. The 3D dynamics are then further rendered by the sparse texture mapping algorithm to recover structural details and sparse textures for generating face frames. Our model is versatile for various AR/VR and entertainment applications, such as face video retargeting and face video prediction. Superior experimental results have well demonstrated its effectiveness in generating high-fidelity, identity-preserving, and visually pleasant face video clips from a single source face image.
NeuralLog: Natural Language Inference with Joint Neural and Logical Reasoning
Authors: Zeming Chen, Qiyue Gao, Lawrence S. Moss
Date: 2021-05-29 00:00:00
Proceeding: Joint Conference on Lexical and Computational Semantics 2021
Tasks: Deep Learning, Language Modeling, Language Modelling, Logical Reasoning, Natural Language Inference

Deep learning (DL) based language models achieve high performance on various benchmarks for Natural Language Inference (NLI). And at this time, symbolic approaches to NLI are receiving less attention. Both approaches (symbolic and DL) have their advantages and weaknesses. However, currently, no method combines them in a system to solve the task of NLI. To merge symbolic and deep learning methods, we propose an inference framework called NeuralLog, which utilizes both a monotonicity-based logical inference engine and a neural network language model for phrase alignment. Our framework models the NLI task as a classic search problem and uses the beam search algorithm to search for optimal inference paths. Experiments show that our joint logic and neural inference system improves accuracy on the NLI task and can achieve state-of-art accuracy on the SICK and MED datasets.