pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Real-time Mortality Prediction Using MIMIC-IV ICU Data Via Boosted Nonparametric Hazards
Authors: Zhale Nowroozilarki, Arash Pakbin, James Royalty, Donald K. K. Lee, Bobak J. Mortazavi
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: ICU Mortality, Mortality Prediction, Survival Analysis

Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems provide critical, rich and valuable information at high frequency. One of the most exciting applications of EHR data is in developing a real-time mortality warning system with tools from survival analysis. However, most of the survival analysis methods used recently are based on (semi)parametric models using static covariates. These models do not take advantage of the information conveyed by the time-varying EHR data. In this work, we present an application of a highly scalable survival analysis method, BoXHED 2.0 to develop a real-time in-ICU mortality warning indicator based on the MIMIC IV data set. Importantly, BoXHED can incorporate time-dependent covariates in a fully nonparametric manner and is backed by theory. Our in-ICU mortality model achieves an AUC-PRC of 0.41 and AUC-ROC of 0.83 out of sample, demonstrating the benefit of real-time monitoring.
Rejoinder: Learning Optimal Distributionally Robust Individualized Treatment Rules
Authors: Weibin Mo, Zhengling Qi, Yufeng Liu
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00

We thank the opportunity offered by editors for this discussion and the discussants for their insightful comments and thoughtful contributions. We also want to congratulate Kallus (2020) for his inspiring work in improving the efficiency of policy learning by retargeting. Motivated from the discussion in Dukes and Vansteelandt (2020), we first point out interesting connections and distinctions between our work and Kallus (2020) in Section 1. In particular, the assumptions and sources of variation for consideration in these two papers lead to different research problems with different scopes and focuses. In Section 2, following the discussions in Li et al. (2020); Liang and Zhao (2020), we also consider the efficient policy evaluation problem when we have some data from the testing distribution available at the training stage. We show that under the assumption that the sample sizes from training and testing are growing in the same order, efficient value function estimates can deliver competitive performance. We further show some connections of these estimates with existing literature. However, when the growth of testing sample size available for training is in a slower order, efficient value function estimates may not perform well anymore. In contrast, the requirement of the testing sample size for DRITR is not as strong as that of efficient policy evaluation using the combined data. Finally, we highlight the general applicability and usefulness of DRITR in Section 3.
MARTINI: Smart Meter Driven Estimation of HVAC Schedules and Energy Savings Based on WiFi Sensing and Clustering
Authors: Kingsley Nweye, Zoltan Nagy
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Scheduling

HVAC systems account for a significant portion of building energy use. Nighttime setback scheduling is an energy conservation measure where cooling and heating setpoints are increased and decreased respectively during unoccupied periods with the goal of obtaining energy savings. However, knowledge of a building's real occupancy is required to maximize the success of this measure. In addition, there is the need for a scalable way to estimate energy savings potential from energy conservation measures that is not limited by building specific parameters and experimental or simulation modeling investments. Here, we propose MARTINI, a sMARt meTer drIveN estImation of occupant-derived HVAC schedules and energy savings that leverages the ubiquity of energy smart meters and WiFi infrastructure in commercial buildings. We estimate the schedules by clustering WiFi-derived occupancy profiles and, energy savings by shifting ramp-up and setback times observed in typical/measured load profiles obtained by clustering smart meter energy profiles. Our case-study results with five buildings over seven months show an average of 8.1%-10.8% (summer) and 0.2%-5.9% (fall) chilled water energy savings when HVAC system operation is aligned with occupancy. We validate our method with results from building energy performance simulation (BEPS) and find that estimated average savings of MARTINI are within 0.9%-2.4% of the BEPS predictions. In the absence of occupancy information, we can still estimate potential savings from increasing ramp-up time and decreasing setback start time. In 51 academic buildings, we find savings potentials between 1%-5%.
A Dual Approach to Constrained Markov Decision Processes with Entropy Regularization
Authors: Donghao Ying, Yuhao Ding, Javad Lavaei
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00

We study entropy-regularized constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) under the soft-max parameterization, in which an agent aims to maximize the entropy-regularized value function while satisfying constraints on the expected total utility. By leveraging the entropy regularization, our theoretical analysis shows that its Lagrangian dual function is smooth and the Lagrangian duality gap can be decomposed into the primal optimality gap and the constraint violation. Furthermore, we propose an accelerated dual-descent method for entropy-regularized CMDPs. We prove that our method achieves the global convergence rate $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/T)$ for both the optimality gap and the constraint violation for entropy-regularized CMDPs. A discussion about a linear convergence rate for CMDPs with a single constraint is also provided.
Using Clinical Drug Representations for Improving Mortality and Length of Stay Predictions
Authors: Batuhan Bardak, Mehmet Tan
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Mortality Prediction, Time Series, Time Series Analysis

Drug representations have played an important role in cheminformatics. However, in the healthcare domain, drug representations have been underused relative to the rest of Electronic Health Record (EHR) data, due to the complexity of high dimensional drug representations and the lack of proper pipeline that will allow to convert clinical drugs to their representations. Time-varying vital signs, laboratory measurements, and related time-series signals are commonly used to predict clinical outcomes. In this work, we demonstrated that using clinical drug representations in addition to other clinical features has significant potential to increase the performance of mortality and length of stay (LOS) models. We evaluate the two different drug representation methods (Extended-Connectivity Fingerprint-ECFP and SMILES-Transformer embedding) on clinical outcome predictions. The results have shown that the proposed multimodal approach achieves substantial enhancement on clinical tasks over baseline models. Using clinical drug representations as additional features improve the LOS prediction for Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC) around %6 and for Area Under Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC) by around %5. Furthermore, for the mortality prediction task, there is an improvement of around %2 over the time series baseline in terms of AUROC and %3.5 in terms of AUPRC. The code for the proposed method is available at https://github.com/tanlab/MIMIC-III-Clinical-Drug-Representations.
Deep forecasting of translational impact in medical research
Authors: Amy PK Nelson, Robert J Gray, James K Ruffle, Henry C Watkins, Daniel Herron, Nick Sorros, Danil Mikhailov, M. Jorge Cardoso, Sebastien Ourselin, Nick McNally, Bryan Williams, Geraint E. Rees, Parashkev Nachev
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Translation

The value of biomedical research--a $1.7 trillion annual investment--is ultimately determined by its downstream, real-world impact. Current objective predictors of impact rest on proxy, reductive metrics of dissemination, such as paper citation rates, whose relation to real-world translation remains unquantified. Here we sought to determine the comparative predictability of future real-world translation--as indexed by inclusion in patents, guidelines or policy documents--from complex models of the abstract-level content of biomedical publications versus citations and publication meta-data alone. We develop a suite of representational and discriminative mathematical models of multi-scale publication data, quantifying predictive performance out-of-sample, ahead-of-time, across major biomedical domains, using the entire corpus of biomedical research captured by Microsoft Academic Graph from 1990 to 2019, encompassing 43.3 million papers across all domains. We show that citations are only moderately predictive of translational impact as judged by inclusion in patents, guidelines, or policy documents. By contrast, high-dimensional models of publication titles, abstracts and metadata exhibit high fidelity (AUROC > 0.9), generalise across time and thematic domain, and transfer to the task of recognising papers of Nobel Laureates. The translational impact of a paper indexed by inclusion in patents, guidelines, or policy documents can be predicted--out-of-sample and ahead-of-time--with substantially higher fidelity from complex models of its abstract-level content than from models of publication meta-data or citation metrics. We argue that content-based models of impact are superior in performance to conventional, citation-based measures, and sustain a stronger evidence-based claim to the objective measurement of translational potential.
Gravitational wave surrogates through automated machine learning
Authors: Damián Barsotti, Franco Cerino, Manuel Tiglio, Aarón Villanueva
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: AutoML, BIG-bench Machine Learning, regression

We analyze a prospect for predicting gravitational waveforms from compact binaries based on automated machine learning (AutoML) from around a hundred different possible regression models, without having to resort to tedious and manual case-by-case analyses and fine-tuning. The particular study of this article is within the context of the gravitational waves emitted by the collision of two spinless black holes in initial quasi-circular orbit. We find, for example, that approaches such as Gaussian process regression with radial bases as kernels do provide a sufficiently accurate solution, an approach which is generalizable to multiple dimensions with low computational evaluation cost. The results here presented suggest that AutoML might provide a framework for regression in the field of surrogates for gravitational waveforms. Our study is within the context of surrogates of numerical relativity simulations based on Reduced Basis and the Empirical Interpolation Method, where we find that for the particular case analyzed AutoML can produce surrogates which are essentially indistinguishable from the NR simulations themselves.
Damped Anderson Mixing for Deep Reinforcement Learning: Acceleration, Convergence, and Stabilization
Authors: Ke Sun, Yafei Wang, Yi Liu, Yingnan Zhao, Bo Pan, Shangling Jui, Bei Jiang, Linglong Kong
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Proceeding: NeurIPS 2021 12
Tasks: Deep Reinforcement Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Anderson mixing has been heuristically applied to reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms for accelerating convergence and improving the sampling efficiency of deep RL. Despite its heuristic improvement of convergence, a rigorous mathematical justification for the benefits of Anderson mixing in RL has not yet been put forward. In this paper, we provide deeper insights into a class of acceleration schemes built on Anderson mixing that improve the convergence of deep RL algorithms. Our main results establish a connection between Anderson mixing and quasi-Newton methods and prove that Anderson mixing increases the convergence radius of policy iteration schemes by an extra contraction factor. The key focus of the analysis roots in the fixed-point iteration nature of RL. We further propose a stabilization strategy by introducing a stable regularization term in Anderson mixing and a differentiable, non-expansive MellowMax operator that can allow both faster convergence and more stable behavior. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed method enhances the convergence, stability, and performance of RL algorithms.
Persuasion by Dimension Reduction
Authors: Semyon Malamud, Andreas Schrimpf
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Dimensionality Reduction

How should an agent (the sender) observing multi-dimensional data (the state vector) persuade another agent to take the desired action? We show that it is always optimal for the sender to perform a (non-linear) dimension reduction by projecting the state vector onto a lower-dimensional object that we call the "optimal information manifold." We characterize geometric properties of this manifold and link them to the sender's preferences. Optimal policy splits information into "good" and "bad" components. When the sender's marginal utility is linear, revealing the full magnitude of good information is always optimal. In contrast, with concave marginal utility, optimal information design conceals the extreme realizations of good information and only reveals its direction (sign). We illustrate these effects by explicitly solving several multi-dimensional Bayesian persuasion problems.
Predicting the Performance of Multilingual NLP Models
Authors: Anirudh Srinivasan, Sunayana Sitaram, Tanuja Ganu, Sandipan Dandapat, Kalika Bali, Monojit Choudhury
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Multilingual NLP

Recent advancements in NLP have given us models like mBERT and XLMR that can serve over 100 languages. The languages that these models are evaluated on, however, are very few in number, and it is unlikely that evaluation datasets will cover all the languages that these models support. Potential solutions to the costly problem of dataset creation are to translate datasets to new languages or use template-filling based techniques for creation. This paper proposes an alternate solution for evaluating a model across languages which make use of the existing performance scores of the model on languages that a particular task has test sets for. We train a predictor on these performance scores and use this predictor to predict the model's performance in different evaluation settings. Our results show that our method is effective in filling the gaps in the evaluation for an existing set of languages, but might require additional improvements if we want it to generalize to unseen languages.
Expectation Distance-based Distributional Clustering for Noise-Robustness
Authors: Rahmat Adesunkanmi, Ratnesh Kumar
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering

This paper presents a clustering technique that reduces the susceptibility to data noise by learning and clustering the data-distribution and then assigning the data to the cluster of its distribution. In the process, it reduces the impact of noise on clustering results. This method involves introducing a new distance among distributions, namely the expectation distance (denoted, ED), that goes beyond the state-of-art distribution distance of optimal mass transport (denoted, $W_2$ for $2$-Wasserstein): The latter essentially depends only on the marginal distributions while the former also employs the information about the joint distributions. Using the ED, the paper extends the classical $K$-means and $K$-medoids clustering to those over data-distributions (rather than raw-data) and introduces $K$-medoids using $W_2$. The paper also presents the closed-form expressions of the $W_2$ and ED distance measures. The implementation results of the proposed ED and the $W_2$ distance measures to cluster real-world weather data as well as stock data are also presented, which involves efficiently extracting and using the underlying data distributions -- Gaussians for weather data versus lognormals for stock data. The results show striking performance improvement over classical clustering of raw-data, with higher accuracy realized for ED. Also, not only does the distribution-based clustering offer higher accuracy, but it also lowers the computation time due to reduced time-complexity.
Deep Learning Based EDM Subgenre Classification using Mel-Spectrogram and Tempogram Features
Authors: Wei-Han Hsu, Bo-Yu Chen, Yi-Hsuan Yang
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification, Genre classification, Music Auto-Tagging, Music Genre Classification

Along with the evolution of music technology, a large number of styles, or "subgenres," of Electronic Dance Music(EDM) have emerged in recent years. While the classification task of distinguishing between EDM and non-EDM has been often studied in the context of music genre classification, little work has been done on the more challenging EDM subgenre classification. The state-of-art model is based on extremely randomized trees and could be improved by deep learning methods. In this paper, we extend the state-of-art music auto-tagging model "short-chunkCNN+Resnet" to EDM subgenre classification, with the addition of two mid-level tempo-related feature representations, called the Fourier tempogram and autocorrelation tempogram. And, we explore two fusion strategies, early fusion and late fusion, to aggregate the two types of tempograms. We evaluate the proposed models using a large dataset consisting of 75,000 songs for 30 different EDM subgenres, and show that the adoption of deep learning models and tempo features indeed leads to higher classification accuracy.
Growing Representation Learning
Authors: Ryan King, Bobak Mortazavi
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Continual Learning, Neural Architecture Search, Representation Learning

Machine learning continues to grow in popularity due to its ability to learn increasingly complex tasks. However, for many supervised models, the shift in a data distribution or the appearance of a new event can result in a severe decrease in model performance. Retraining a model from scratch with updated data can be resource intensive or impossible depending on the constraints placed on an organization or system. Continual learning methods attempt to adapt models to new classes instead of retraining. However, many of these methods do not have a detection method for new classes or make assumptions about the distribution of classes. In this paper, we develop an attention based Gaussian Mixture, called GMAT, that learns interpretable representations of data with or without labels. We incorporate this method with existing Neural Architecture Search techniques to develop an algorithm for detection new events for an optimal number of representations through an iterative process of training a growing. We show that our method is capable learning new representations of data without labels or assumptions about the distributions of labels. We additionally develop a method that allows our model to utilize labels to more accurately develop representations. Lastly, we show that our method can avoid catastrophic forgetting by replaying samples from learned representations.
Understanding the network formation pattern for better link prediction
Authors: Jiating Yu, Ling-Yun Wu
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Link Prediction, Prediction

As a classical problem in the field of complex networks, link prediction has attracted much attention from researchers, which is of great significance to help us understand the evolution and dynamic development mechanisms of networks. Although various network type-specific algorithms have been proposed to tackle the link prediction problem, most of them suppose that the network structure is dominated by the Triadic Closure Principle. We still lack an adaptive and comprehensive understanding of network formation patterns for predicting potential links. In addition, it is valuable to investigate how network local information can be better utilized. To this end, we proposed a novel method named Link prediction using Multiple Order Local Information (MOLI) that exploits the local information from the neighbors of different distances, with parameters that can be a prior-driven based on prior knowledge, or data-driven by solving an optimization problem on observed networks. MOLI defined a local network diffusion process via random walks on the graph, resulting in better use of network information. We show that MOLI outperforms the other 11 widely used link prediction algorithms on 11 different types of simulated and real-world networks. We also conclude that there are different patterns of local information utilization for different networks, including social networks, communication networks, biological networks, etc. In particular, the classical common neighbor-based algorithm is not as adaptable to all social networks as it is perceived to be; instead, some of the social networks obey the Quadrilateral Closure Principle which preferentially connects paths of length three.
Provable RL with Exogenous Distractors via Multistep Inverse Dynamics
Authors: Yonathan Efroni, Dipendra Misra, Akshay Krishnamurthy, Alekh Agarwal, John Langford
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: Reinforcement Learning (RL), Representation Learning

Many real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL) require the agent to deal with high-dimensional observations such as those generated from a megapixel camera. Prior work has addressed such problems with representation learning, through which the agent can provably extract endogenous, latent state information from raw observations and subsequently plan efficiently. However, such approaches can fail in the presence of temporally correlated noise in the observations, a phenomenon that is common in practice. We initiate the formal study of latent state discovery in the presence of such exogenous noise sources by proposing a new model, the Exogenous Block MDP (EX-BMDP), for rich observation RL. We start by establishing several negative results, by highlighting failure cases of prior representation learning based approaches. Then, we introduce the Predictive Path Elimination (PPE) algorithm, that learns a generalization of inverse dynamics and is provably sample and computationally efficient in EX-BMDPs when the endogenous state dynamics are near deterministic. The sample complexity of PPE depends polynomially on the size of the latent endogenous state space while not directly depending on the size of the observation space, nor the exogenous state space. We provide experiments on challenging exploration problems which show that our approach works empirically.
Exploring Deep Neural Networks on Edge TPU
Authors: Seyedehfaezeh Hosseininoorbin, Siamak Layeghy, Brano Kusy, Raja Jurdak, Marius Portmann
Date: 2021-10-17 00:00:00
Tasks: CPU

This paper explores the performance of Google's Edge TPU on feed forward neural networks. We consider Edge TPU as a hardware platform and explore different architectures of deep neural network classifiers, which traditionally has been a challenge to run on resource constrained edge devices. Based on the use of a joint-time-frequency data representation, also known as spectrogram, we explore the trade-off between classification performance and the energy consumed for inference. The energy efficiency of Edge TPU is compared with that of widely-used embedded CPU ARM Cortex-A53. Our results quantify the impact of neural network architectural specifications on the Edge TPU's performance, guiding decisions on the TPU's optimal operating point, where it can provide high classification accuracy with minimal energy consumption. Also, our evaluations highlight the crossover in performance between the Edge TPU and Cortex-A53, depending on the neural network specifications. Based on our analysis, we provide a decision chart to guide decisions on platform selection based on the model parameters and context.