pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Stock2Vec: An Embedding to Improve Predictive Models for Companies
Authors: Ziruo Yi, Ting Xiao, Kaz-Onyeakazi Ijeoma, Ratnam Cheran, Yuvraj Baweja, Phillip Nelson
Date: 2022-01-27 00:00:00
Tasks: Prediction

Building predictive models for companies often relies on inference using historical data of companies in the same industry sector. However, companies are similar across a variety of dimensions that should be leveraged in relevant prediction problems. This is particularly true for large, complex organizations which may not be well defined by a single industry and have no clear peers. To enable prediction using company information across a variety of dimensions, we create an embedding of company stocks, Stock2Vec, which can be easily added to any prediction model that applies to companies with associated stock prices. We describe the process of creating this rich vector representation from stock price fluctuations, and characterize what the dimensions represent. We then conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate this embedding in applied machine learning problems in various business contexts. Our experiment results demonstrate that the four features in the Stock2Vec embedding can readily augment existing cross-company models and enhance cross-company predictions.
Heterogeneous Peer Effects in the Linear Threshold Model
Authors: Christopher Tran, Elena Zheleva
Date: 2022-01-27 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference, model

The Linear Threshold Model is a widely used model that describes how information diffuses through a social network. According to this model, an individual adopts an idea or product after the proportion of their neighbors who have adopted it reaches a certain threshold. Typical applications of the Linear Threshold Model assume that thresholds are either the same for all network nodes or randomly distributed, even though some people may be more susceptible to peer pressure than others. To address individual-level differences, we propose causal inference methods for estimating individual thresholds that can more accurately predict whether and when individuals will be affected by their peers. We introduce the concept of heterogeneous peer effects and develop a Structural Causal Model which corresponds to the Linear Threshold Model and supports heterogeneous peer effect identification and estimation. We develop two algorithms for individual threshold estimation, one based on causal trees and one based on causal meta-learners. Our experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our proposed models can better predict individual-level thresholds in the Linear Threshold Model and thus more precisely predict which nodes will get activated over time.
Objective Prediction of Tomorrow's Affect Using Multi-Modal Physiological Data and Personal Chronicles: A Study of Monitoring College Student Well-being in 2020
Authors: Salar Jafarlou, Jocelyn Lai, Zahra Mousavi, Sina Labbaf, Ramesh Jain, Nikil Dutt, Jessica Borelli, Amir Rahmani
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00

Monitoring and understanding affective states are important aspects of healthy functioning and treatment of mood-based disorders. Recent advancements of ubiquitous wearable technologies have increased the reliability of such tools in detecting and accurately estimating mental states (e.g., mood, stress, etc.), offering comprehensive and continuous monitoring of individuals over time. Previous attempts to model an individual's mental state were limited to subjective approaches or the inclusion of only a few modalities (i.e., phone, watch). Thus, the goal of our study was to investigate the capacity to more accurately predict affect through a fully automatic and objective approach using multiple commercial devices. Longitudinal physiological data and daily assessments of emotions were collected from a sample of college students using smart wearables and phones for over a year. Results showed that our model was able to predict next-day affect with accuracy comparable to state of the art methods.
Synchromesh: Reliable code generation from pre-trained language models
Authors: Gabriel Poesia, Oleksandr Polozov, Vu Le, Ashish Tiwari, Gustavo Soares, Christopher Meek, Sumit Gulwani
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Proceeding: ICLR 2022 4
Tasks: Code Generation, Language Modeling, Language Modelling, valid

Large pre-trained language models have been used to generate code,providing a flexible interface for synthesizing programs from natural language specifications. However, they often violate syntactic and semantic rules of their output language, limiting their practical usability. In this paper, we propose Synchromesh: a framework for substantially improving the reliability of pre-trained models for code generation. Synchromesh comprises two components. First, it retrieves few-shot examples from a training bank using Target Similarity Tuning (TST), a novel method for semantic example selection. TST learns to recognize utterances that describe similar target programs despite differences in surface natural language features. Then, Synchromesh feeds the examples to a pre-trained language model and samples programs using Constrained Semantic Decoding (CSD): a general framework for constraining the output to a set of valid programs in the target language. CSD leverages constraints on partial outputs to sample complete correct programs, and needs neither re-training nor fine-tuning of the language model. We evaluate our methods by synthesizing code from natural language descriptions using GPT-3 and Codex in three real-world languages: SQL queries, Vega-Lite visualizations and SMCalFlow programs. These domains showcase rich constraints that CSD is able to enforce, including syntax, scope, typing rules, and contextual logic. We observe substantial complementary gains from CSD and TST in prediction accuracy and in effectively preventing run-time errors.
Online Change Point Detection for Weighted and Directed Random Dot Product Graphs
Authors: Bernardo Marenco, Paola Bermolen, Marcelo Fiori, Federico Larroca, Gonzalo Mateos
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Change Point Detection, Graph Representation Learning, Representation Learning, Time Series Analysis

Given a sequence of random (directed and weighted) graphs, we address the problem of online monitoring and detection of changes in the underlying data distribution. Our idea is to endow sequential change-point detection (CPD) techniques with a graph representation learning substrate based on the versatile Random Dot Product Graph (RDPG) model. We consider efficient, online updates of a judicious monitoring function, which quantifies the discrepancy between the streaming graph observations and the nominal RDPG. This reference distribution is inferred via spectral embeddings of the first few graphs in the sequence. We characterize the distribution of this running statistic to select thresholds that guarantee error-rate control, and under simplifying approximations we offer insights on the algorithm's detection resolution and delay. The end result is a lightweight online CPD algorithm, that is also explainable by virtue of the well-appreciated interpretability of RDPG embeddings. This is in stark contrast with most existing graph CPD approaches, which either rely on extensive computation, or they store and process the entire observed time series. An apparent limitation of the RDPG model is its suitability for undirected and unweighted graphs only, a gap we aim to close here to broaden the scope of the CPD framework. Unlike previous proposals, our non-parametric RDPG model for weighted graphs does not require a priori specification of the weights' distribution to perform inference and estimation. This network modeling contribution is of independent interest beyond CPD. We offer an open-source implementation of the novel online CPD algorithm for weighted and direct graphs, whose effectiveness and efficiency are demonstrated via (reproducible) synthetic and real network data experiments.
Learning Mixtures of Linear Dynamical Systems
Authors: Yanxi Chen, H. Vincent Poor
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Time Series, Time Series Analysis

We study the problem of learning a mixture of multiple linear dynamical systems (LDSs) from unlabeled short sample trajectories, each generated by one of the LDS models. Despite the wide applicability of mixture models for time-series data, learning algorithms that come with end-to-end performance guarantees are largely absent from existing literature. There are multiple sources of technical challenges, including but not limited to (1) the presence of latent variables (i.e. the unknown labels of trajectories); (2) the possibility that the sample trajectories might have lengths much smaller than the dimension $d$ of the LDS models; and (3) the complicated temporal dependence inherent to time-series data. To tackle these challenges, we develop a two-stage meta-algorithm, which is guaranteed to efficiently recover each ground-truth LDS model up to error $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{d/T})$, where $T$ is the total sample size. We validate our theoretical studies with numerical experiments, confirming the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.
On The Energy Statistics of Feature Maps in Pruning of Neural Networks with Skip-Connections
Authors: Mohammadreza Soltani, Suya Wu, Yuerong Li, Jie Ding, Vahid Tarokh
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00

We propose a new structured pruning framework for compressing Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with skip connections, based on measuring the statistical dependency of hidden layers and predicted outputs. The dependence measure defined by the energy statistics of hidden layers serves as a model-free measure of information between the feature maps and the output of the network. The estimated dependence measure is subsequently used to prune a collection of redundant and uninformative layers. Model-freeness of our measure guarantees that no parametric assumptions on the feature map distribution are required, making it computationally appealing for very high dimensional feature space in DNNs. Extensive numerical experiments on various architectures show the efficacy of the proposed pruning approach with competitive performance to state-of-the-art methods.
Reward-Free RL is No Harder Than Reward-Aware RL in Linear Markov Decision Processes
Authors: Andrew Wagenmaker, Yifang Chen, Max Simchowitz, Simon S. Du, Kevin Jamieson
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Reward-free reinforcement learning (RL) considers the setting where the agent does not have access to a reward function during exploration, but must propose a near-optimal policy for an arbitrary reward function revealed only after exploring. In the the tabular setting, it is well known that this is a more difficult problem than reward-aware (PAC) RL -- where the agent has access to the reward function during exploration -- with optimal sample complexities in the two settings differing by a factor of $|\mathcal{S}|$, the size of the state space. We show that this separation does not exist in the setting of linear MDPs. We first develop a computationally efficient algorithm for reward-free RL in a $d$-dimensional linear MDP with sample complexity scaling as $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^2 H^5/\epsilon^2)$. We then show a lower bound with matching dimension-dependence of $\Omega(d^2 H^2/\epsilon^2)$, which holds for the reward-aware RL setting. To our knowledge, our approach is the first computationally efficient algorithm to achieve optimal $d$ dependence in linear MDPs, even in the single-reward PAC setting. Our algorithm relies on a novel procedure which efficiently traverses a linear MDP, collecting samples in any given ``feature direction'', and enjoys a sample complexity scaling optimally in the (linear MDP equivalent of the) maximal state visitation probability. We show that this exploration procedure can also be applied to solve the problem of obtaining ``well-conditioned'' covariates in linear MDPs.
Generative Trees: Adversarial and Copycat
Authors: Richard Nock, Mathieu Guillame-Bert
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Imputation

While Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) achieve spectacular results on unstructured data like images, there is still a gap on tabular data, data for which state of the art supervised learning still favours to a large extent decision tree (DT)-based models. This paper proposes a new path forward for the generation of tabular data, exploiting decades-old understanding of the supervised task's best components for DT induction, from losses (properness), models (tree-based) to algorithms (boosting). The \textit{properness} condition on the supervised loss -- which postulates the optimality of Bayes rule -- leads us to a variational GAN-style loss formulation which is \textit{tight} when discriminators meet a calibration property trivially satisfied by DTs, and, under common assumptions about the supervised loss, yields "one loss to train against them all" for the generator: the $\chi^2$. We then introduce tree-based generative models, \textit{generative trees} (GTs), meant to mirror on the generative side the good properties of DTs for classifying tabular data, with a boosting-compliant \textit{adversarial} training algorithm for GTs. We also introduce \textit{copycat training}, in which the generator copies at run time the underlying tree (graph) of the discriminator DT and completes it for the hardest discriminative task, with boosting compliant convergence. We test our algorithms on tasks including fake/real distinction, training from fake data and missing data imputation. Each one of these tasks displays that GTs can provide comparatively simple -- and interpretable -- contenders to sophisticated state of the art methods for data generation (using neural network models) or missing data imputation (relying on multiple imputation by chained equations with complex tree-based modeling).
On the Convergence of mSGD and AdaGrad for Stochastic Optimization
Authors: Ruinan Jin, Yu Xing, Xingkang He
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Proceeding: ICLR 2022 4
Tasks: Stochastic Optimization

As one of the most fundamental stochastic optimization algorithms, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has been intensively developed and extensively applied in machine learning in the past decade. There have been some modified SGD-type algorithms, which outperform the SGD in many competitions and applications in terms of convergence rate and accuracy, such as momentum-based SGD (mSGD) and adaptive gradient algorithm (AdaGrad). Despite these empirical successes, the theoretical properties of these algorithms have not been well established due to technical difficulties. With this motivation, we focus on convergence analysis of mSGD and AdaGrad for any smooth (possibly non-convex) loss functions in stochastic optimization. First, we prove that the iterates of mSGD are asymptotically convergent to a connected set of stationary points with probability one, which is more general than existing works on subsequence convergence or convergence of time averages. Moreover, we prove that the loss function of mSGD decays at a certain rate faster than that of SGD. In addition, we prove the iterates of AdaGrad are asymptotically convergent to a connected set of stationary points with probability one. Also, this result extends the results from the literature on subsequence convergence and the convergence of time averages. Despite the generality of the above convergence results, we have relaxed some assumptions of gradient noises, convexity of loss functions, as well as boundedness of iterates.
IMACS: Image Model Attribution Comparison Summaries
Authors: Eldon Schoop, Ben Wedin, Andrei Kapishnikov, Tolga Bolukbasi, Michael Terry
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: image-classification, Image Classification, model

Developing a suitable Deep Neural Network (DNN) often requires significant iteration, where different model versions are evaluated and compared. While metrics such as accuracy are a powerful means to succinctly describe a model's performance across a dataset or to directly compare model versions, practitioners often wish to gain a deeper understanding of the factors that influence a model's predictions. Interpretability techniques such as gradient-based methods and local approximations can be used to examine small sets of inputs in fine detail, but it can be hard to determine if results from small sets generalize across a dataset. We introduce IMACS, a method that combines gradient-based model attributions with aggregation and visualization techniques to summarize differences in attributions between two DNN image models. More specifically, IMACS extracts salient input features from an evaluation dataset, clusters them based on similarity, then visualizes differences in model attributions for similar input features. In this work, we introduce a framework for aggregating, summarizing, and comparing the attribution information for two models across a dataset; present visualizations that highlight differences between 2 image classification models; and show how our technique can uncover behavioral differences caused by domain shift between two models trained on satellite images.
Attention cannot be an Explanation
Authors: Arjun R Akula, Song-Chun Zhu
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Feature Importance

Attention based explanations (viz. saliency maps), by providing interpretability to black box models such as deep neural networks, are assumed to improve human trust and reliance in the underlying models. Recently, it has been shown that attention weights are frequently uncorrelated with gradient-based measures of feature importance. Motivated by this, we ask a follow-up question: "Assuming that we only consider the tasks where attention weights correlate well with feature importance, how effective are these attention based explanations in increasing human trust and reliance in the underlying models?". In other words, can we use attention as an explanation? We perform extensive human study experiments that aim to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the degree to which attention based explanations are suitable in increasing human trust and reliance. Our experiment results show that attention cannot be used as an explanation.
Crystal structure prediction with machine learning-based element substitution
Authors: Minoru Kusaba, Chang Liu, Ryo Yoshida
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: BIG-bench Machine Learning, Metric Learning, Prediction

The prediction of energetically stable crystal structures formed by a given chemical composition is a central problem in solid-state physics. In principle, the crystalline state of assembled atoms can be determined by optimizing the energy surface, which in turn can be evaluated using first-principles calculations. However, performing the iterative gradient descent on the potential energy surface using first-principles calculations is prohibitively expensive for complex systems, such as those with many atoms per unit cell. Here, we present a unique methodology for crystal structure prediction (CSP) that relies on a machine learning algorithm called metric learning. It is shown that a binary classifier, trained on a large number of already identified crystal structures, can determine the isomorphism of crystal structures formed by two given chemical compositions with an accuracy of approximately 96.4\%. For a given query composition with an unknown crystal structure, the model is used to automatically select from a crystal structure database a set of template crystals with nearly identical stable structures to which element substitution is to be applied. Apart from the local relaxation calculation of the identified templates, the proposed method does not use ab initio calculations. The potential of this substation-based CSP is demonstrated for a wide variety of crystal systems.
A dual approach for federated learning
Authors: Zhenan Fan, Huang Fang, Michael P. Friedlander
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Federated Learning

We study the federated optimization problem from a dual perspective and propose a new algorithm termed federated dual coordinate descent (FedDCD), which is based on a type of coordinate descent method developed by Necora et al.[Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 2017]. Additionally, we enhance the FedDCD method with inexact gradient oracles and Nesterov's acceleration. We demonstrate theoretically that our proposed approach achieves better convergence rates than the state-of-the-art primal federated optimization algorithms under certain situations. Numerical experiments on real-world datasets support our analysis.
Hyperparameter Tuning for Deep Reinforcement Learning Applications
Authors: Mariam Kiran, Melis Ozyildirim
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Deep Reinforcement Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Reinforcement learning (RL) applications, where an agent can simply learn optimal behaviors by interacting with the environment, are quickly gaining tremendous success in a wide variety of applications from controlling simple pendulums to complex data centers. However, setting the right hyperparameters can have a huge impact on the deployed solution performance and reliability in the inference models, produced via RL, used for decision-making. Hyperparameter search itself is a laborious process that requires many iterations and computationally expensive to find the best settings that produce the best neural network architectures. In comparison to other neural network architectures, deep RL has not witnessed much hyperparameter tuning, due to its algorithm complexity and simulation platforms needed. In this paper, we propose a distributed variable-length genetic algorithm framework to systematically tune hyperparameters for various RL applications, improving training time and robustness of the architecture, via evolution. We demonstrate the scalability of our approach on many RL problems (from simple gyms to complex applications) and compared with Bayesian approach. Our results show that with more generations, optimal solutions that require fewer training episodes and are computationally cheap while being more robust for deployment. Our results are imperative to advance deep reinforcement learning controllers for real-world problems.
Self-Certifying Classification by Linearized Deep Assignment
Authors: Bastian Boll, Alexander Zeilmann, Stefania Petra, Christoph Schnörr
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00
Tasks: Classification

We propose a novel class of deep stochastic predictors for classifying metric data on graphs within the PAC-Bayes risk certification paradigm. Classifiers are realized as linearly parametrized deep assignment flows with random initial conditions. Building on the recent PAC-Bayes literature and data-dependent priors, this approach enables (i) to use risk bounds as training objectives for learning posterior distributions on the hypothesis space and (ii) to compute tight out-of-sample risk certificates of randomized classifiers more efficiently than related work. Comparison with empirical test set errors illustrates the performance and practicality of this self-certifying classification method.
Born-Infeld (BI) for AI: Energy-Conserving Descent (ECD) for Optimization
Authors: G. Bruno De Luca, Eva Silverstein
Date: 2022-01-26 00:00:00

We introduce a novel framework for optimization based on energy-conserving Hamiltonian dynamics in a strongly mixing (chaotic) regime and establish its key properties analytically and numerically. The prototype is a discretization of Born-Infeld dynamics, with a squared relativistic speed limit depending on the objective function. This class of frictionless, energy-conserving optimizers proceeds unobstructed until slowing naturally near the minimal loss, which dominates the phase space volume of the system. Building from studies of chaotic systems such as dynamical billiards, we formulate a specific algorithm with good performance on machine learning and PDE-solving tasks, including generalization. It cannot stop at a high local minimum, an advantage in non-convex loss functions, and proceeds faster than GD+momentum in shallow valleys.