pwc-archive/papers-with-abstracts huggingface dataset:
Explainable boosted linear regression for time series forecasting
Authors: Igor Ilic, Berk Gorgulu, Mucahit Cevik, Mustafa Gokce Baydogan
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Prediction Intervals, regression, Time Series, Time Series Analysis, Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting involves collecting and analyzing past observations to develop a model to extrapolate such observations into the future. Forecasting of future events is important in many fields to support decision making as it contributes to reducing the future uncertainty. We propose explainable boosted linear regression (EBLR) algorithm for time series forecasting, which is an iterative method that starts with a base model, and explains the model's errors through regression trees. At each iteration, the path leading to highest error is added as a new variable to the base model. In this regard, our approach can be considered as an improvement over general time series models since it enables incorporating nonlinear features by residuals explanation. More importantly, use of the single rule that contributes to the error most allows for interpretable results. The proposed approach extends to probabilistic forecasting through generating prediction intervals based on the empirical error distribution. We conduct a detailed numerical study with EBLR and compare against various other approaches. We observe that EBLR substantially improves the base model performance through extracted features, and provide a comparable performance to other well established approaches. The interpretability of the model predictions and high predictive accuracy of EBLR makes it a promising method for time series forecasting.
A Simple and Effective Self-Supervised Contrastive Learning Framework for Aspect Detection
Authors: Tian Shi, Liuqing Li, Ping Wang, Chandan K. Reddy
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Contrastive Learning, Topic Models

Unsupervised aspect detection (UAD) aims at automatically extracting interpretable aspects and identifying aspect-specific segments (such as sentences) from online reviews. However, recent deep learning-based topic models, specifically aspect-based autoencoder, suffer from several problems, such as extracting noisy aspects and poorly mapping aspects discovered by models to the aspects of interest. To tackle these challenges, in this paper, we first propose a self-supervised contrastive learning framework and an attention-based model equipped with a novel smooth self-attention (SSA) module for the UAD task in order to learn better representations for aspects and review segments. Secondly, we introduce a high-resolution selective mapping (HRSMap) method to efficiently assign aspects discovered by the model to aspects of interest. We also propose using a knowledge distilling technique to further improve the aspect detection performance. Our methods outperform several recent unsupervised and weakly supervised approaches on publicly available benchmark user review datasets. Aspect interpretation results show that extracted aspects are meaningful, have good coverage, and can be easily mapped to aspects of interest. Ablation studies and attention weight visualization also demonstrate the effectiveness of SSA and the knowledge distilling method.
Looking Beyond Sentence-Level Natural Language Inference for Downstream Tasks
Authors: Anshuman Mishra, Dhruvesh Patel, Aparna Vijayakumar, Xiang Li, Pavan Kapanipathi, Kartik Talamadupula
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Natural Language Inference, Question Answering, Sentence, Text Summarization

In recent years, the Natural Language Inference (NLI) task has garnered significant attention, with new datasets and models achieving near human-level performance on it. However, the full promise of NLI -- particularly that it learns knowledge that should be generalizable to other downstream NLP tasks -- has not been realized. In this paper, we study this unfulfilled promise from the lens of two downstream tasks: question answering (QA), and text summarization. We conjecture that a key difference between the NLI datasets and these downstream tasks concerns the length of the premise; and that creating new long premise NLI datasets out of existing QA datasets is a promising avenue for training a truly generalizable NLI model. We validate our conjecture by showing competitive results on the task of QA and obtaining the best reported results on the task of Checking Factual Correctness of Summaries.
Holistic Grid Fusion Based Stop Line Estimation
Authors: Runsheng Xu, Faezeh Tafazzoli, Li Zhang, Timo Rehfeld, Gunther Krehl, Arunava Seal
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Autonomous Driving

Intersection scenarios provide the most complex traffic situations in Autonomous Driving and Driving Assistance Systems. Knowing where to stop in advance in an intersection is an essential parameter in controlling the longitudinal velocity of the vehicle. Most of the existing methods in literature solely use cameras to detect stop lines, which is typically not sufficient in terms of detection range. To address this issue, we propose a method that takes advantage of fused multi-sensory data including stereo camera and lidar as input and utilizes a carefully designed convolutional neural network architecture to detect stop lines. Our experiments show that the proposed approach can improve detection range compared to camera data alone, works under heavy occlusion without observing the ground markings explicitly, is able to predict stop lines for all lanes and allows detection at a distance up to 50 meters.
Evaluation of Local Explanation Methods for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Authors: Ozan Ozyegen, Igor Ilic, Mucahit Cevik
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: BIG-bench Machine Learning, Multivariate Time Series Forecasting, Time Series, Time Series Analysis, Time Series Classification, Time Series Forecasting

Being able to interpret a machine learning model is a crucial task in many applications of machine learning. Specifically, local interpretability is important in determining why a model makes particular predictions. Despite the recent focus on AI interpretability, there has been a lack of research in local interpretability methods for time series forecasting while the few interpretable methods that exist mainly focus on time series classification tasks. In this study, we propose two novel evaluation metrics for time series forecasting: Area Over the Perturbation Curve for Regression and Ablation Percentage Threshold. These two metrics can measure the local fidelity of local explanation models. We extend the theoretical foundation to collect experimental results on two popular datasets, \textit{Rossmann sales} and \textit{electricity}. Both metrics enable a comprehensive comparison of numerous local explanation models and find which metrics are more sensitive. Lastly, we provide heuristical reasoning for this analysis.
Private Reinforcement Learning with PAC and Regret Guarantees
Authors: Giuseppe Vietri, Borja Balle, Akshay Krishnamurthy, Zhiwei Steven Wu
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Decision Making, Privacy Preserving, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

Motivated by high-stakes decision-making domains like personalized medicine where user information is inherently sensitive, we design privacy preserving exploration policies for episodic reinforcement learning (RL). We first provide a meaningful privacy formulation using the notion of joint differential privacy (JDP)--a strong variant of differential privacy for settings where each user receives their own sets of output (e.g., policy recommendations). We then develop a private optimism-based learning algorithm that simultaneously achieves strong PAC and regret bounds, and enjoys a JDP guarantee. Our algorithm only pays for a moderate privacy cost on exploration: in comparison to the non-private bounds, the privacy parameter only appears in lower-order terms. Finally, we present lower bounds on sample complexity and regret for reinforcement learning subject to JDP.
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Closed-Loop Blood Glucose Control
Authors: Ian Fox, Joyce Lee, Rodica Pop-Busui, Jenna Wiens
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Deep Reinforcement Learning, reinforcement-learning, Reinforcement Learning, Reinforcement Learning (RL)

People with type 1 diabetes (T1D) lack the ability to produce the insulin their bodies need. As a result, they must continually make decisions about how much insulin to self-administer to adequately control their blood glucose levels. Longitudinal data streams captured from wearables, like continuous glucose monitors, can help these individuals manage their health, but currently the majority of the decision burden remains on the user. To relieve this burden, researchers are working on closed-loop solutions that combine a continuous glucose monitor and an insulin pump with a control algorithm in an `artificial pancreas.' Such systems aim to estimate and deliver the appropriate amount of insulin. Here, we develop reinforcement learning (RL) techniques for automated blood glucose control. Through a series of experiments, we compare the performance of different deep RL approaches to non-RL approaches. We highlight the flexibility of RL approaches, demonstrating how they can adapt to new individuals with little additional data. On over 2.1 million hours of data from 30 simulated patients, our RL approach outperforms baseline control algorithms: leading to a decrease in median glycemic risk of nearly 50% from 8.34 to 4.24 and a decrease in total time hypoglycemic of 99.8%, from 4,610 days to 6. Moreover, these approaches are able to adapt to predictable meal times (decreasing average risk by an additional 24% as meals increase in predictability). This work demonstrates the potential of deep RL to help people with T1D manage their blood glucose levels without requiring expert knowledge. All of our code is publicly available, allowing for replication and extension.
Cross-Entropy Method Variants for Optimization
Authors: Robert J. Moss
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Scheduling

The cross-entropy (CE) method is a popular stochastic method for optimization due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Designed for rare-event simulations where the probability of a target event occurring is relatively small, the CE-method relies on enough objective function calls to accurately estimate the optimal parameters of the underlying distribution. Certain objective functions may be computationally expensive to evaluate, and the CE-method could potentially get stuck in local minima. This is compounded with the need to have an initial covariance wide enough to cover the design space of interest. We introduce novel variants of the CE-method to address these concerns. To mitigate expensive function calls, during optimization we use every sample to build a surrogate model to approximate the objective function. The surrogate model augments the belief of the objective function with less expensive evaluations. We use a Gaussian process for our surrogate model to incorporate uncertainty in the predictions which is especially helpful when dealing with sparse data. To address local minima convergence, we use Gaussian mixture models to encourage exploration of the design space. We experiment with evaluation scheduling techniques to reallocate true objective function calls earlier in the optimization when the covariance is the largest. To test our approach, we created a parameterized test objective function with many local minima and a single global minimum. Our test function can be adjusted to control the spread and distinction of the minima. Experiments were run to stress the cross-entropy method variants and results indicate that the surrogate model-based approach reduces local minima convergence using the same number of function evaluations.
Causal Rule Ensemble: Interpretable Discovery and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
Authors: Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi, Riccardo Cadei, Kwonsang Lee, Francesca Dominici
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Causal Inference, Epidemiology

In health and social sciences, it is critically important to identify subgroups of the study population where there is notable heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) with respect to the population average. Decision trees have been proposed and commonly adopted for the data-driven discovery of HTE due to their high level of interpretability. However, single-tree discovery of HTE can be unstable and oversimplified. This paper introduces the Causal Rule Ensemble (CRE), a new method for HTE discovery and estimation using an ensemble-of-trees approach. CRE offers several key features, including 1) an interpretable representation of the HTE; 2) the ability to explore complex heterogeneity patterns; and 3) high stability in subgroups discovery. The discovered subgroups are defined in terms of interpretable decision rules. Estimation of subgroup-specific causal effects is performed via a two-stage approach, for which we provide theoretical guarantees. Through simulations, we show that the CRE method is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art techniques. Finally, we apply CRE to discover the heterogeneous health effects of exposure to air pollution on mortality for 35.3 million Medicare beneficiaries across the contiguous U.S.
Group Fairness by Probabilistic Modeling with Latent Fair Decisions
Authors: YooJung Choi, Meihua Dang, Guy Van Den Broeck
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Fairness

Machine learning systems are increasingly being used to make impactful decisions such as loan applications and criminal justice risk assessments, and as such, ensuring fairness of these systems is critical. This is often challenging as the labels in the data are biased. This paper studies learning fair probability distributions from biased data by explicitly modeling a latent variable that represents a hidden, unbiased label. In particular, we aim to achieve demographic parity by enforcing certain independencies in the learned model. We also show that group fairness guarantees are meaningful only if the distribution used to provide those guarantees indeed captures the real-world data. In order to closely model the data distribution, we employ probabilistic circuits, an expressive and tractable probabilistic model, and propose an algorithm to learn them from incomplete data. We evaluate our approach on a synthetic dataset in which observed labels indeed come from fair labels but with added bias, and demonstrate that the fair labels are successfully retrieved. Moreover, we show on real-world datasets that our approach not only is a better model than existing methods of how the data was generated but also achieves competitive accuracy.
Probabilistically Sampled and Spectrally Clustered Plant Genotypes using Phenotypic Characteristics
Authors: Aditya A. Shastri, Kapil Ahuja, Milind B. Ratnaparkhe, Yann Busnel
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Clustering, Quantization

Clustering genotypes based upon their phenotypic characteristics is used to obtain diverse sets of parents that are useful in their breeding programs. The Hierarchical Clustering (HC) algorithm is the current standard in clustering of phenotypic data. This algorithm suffers from low accuracy and high computational complexity issues. To address the accuracy challenge, we propose the use of Spectral Clustering (SC) algorithm. To make the algorithm computationally cheap, we propose using sampling, specifically, Pivotal Sampling that is probability based. Since application of samplings to phenotypic data has not been explored much, for effective comparison, another sampling technique called Vector Quantization (VQ) is adapted for this data as well. VQ has recently given promising results for genome data. The novelty of our SC with Pivotal Sampling algorithm is in constructing the crucial similarity matrix for the clustering algorithm and defining probabilities for the sampling technique. Although our algorithm can be applied to any plant genotypes, we test it on the phenotypic data obtained from about 2400 Soybean genotypes. SC with Pivotal Sampling achieves substantially more accuracy (in terms of Silhouette Values) than all the other proposed competitive clustering with sampling algorithms (i.e. SC with VQ, HC with Pivotal Sampling, and HC with VQ). The complexities of our SC with Pivotal Sampling algorithm and these three variants are almost same because of the involved sampling. In addition to this, SC with Pivotal Sampling outperforms the standard HC algorithm in both accuracy and computational complexity. We experimentally show that we are up to 45% more accurate than HC in terms of clustering accuracy. The computational complexity of our algorithm is more than a magnitude lesser than HC.
Adversarial Robustness through Bias Variance Decomposition: A New Perspective for Federated Learning
Authors: Yao Zhou, Jun Wu, Haixun Wang, Jingrui He
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Adversarial Robustness, Federated Learning, Privacy Preserving

Federated learning learns a neural network model by aggregating the knowledge from a group of distributed clients under the privacy-preserving constraint. In this work, we show that this paradigm might inherit the adversarial vulnerability of the centralized neural network, i.e., it has deteriorated performance on adversarial examples when the model is deployed. This is even more alarming when federated learning paradigm is designed to approximate the updating behavior of a centralized neural network. To solve this problem, we propose an adversarially robust federated learning framework, named Fed_BVA, with improved server and client update mechanisms. This is motivated by our observation that the generalization error in federated learning can be naturally decomposed into the bias and variance triggered by multiple clients' predictions. Thus, we propose to generate the adversarial examples via maximizing the bias and variance during server update, and learn the adversarially robust model updates with those examples during client update. As a result, an adversarially robust neural network can be aggregated from these improved local clients' model updates. The experiments are conducted on multiple benchmark data sets using several prevalent neural network models, and the empirical results show that our framework is robust against white-box and black-box adversarial corruptions under both IID and non-IID settings.
COMET: A Neural Framework for MT Evaluation
Authors: Ricardo Rei, Craig Stewart, Ana C Farinha, Alon Lavie
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Proceeding: EMNLP 2020 11
Tasks: Language Modeling, Language Modelling, Machine Translation, Translation

We present COMET, a neural framework for training multilingual machine translation evaluation models which obtains new state-of-the-art levels of correlation with human judgements. Our framework leverages recent breakthroughs in cross-lingual pretrained language modeling resulting in highly multilingual and adaptable MT evaluation models that exploit information from both the source input and a target-language reference translation in order to more accurately predict MT quality. To showcase our framework, we train three models with different types of human judgements: Direct Assessments, Human-mediated Translation Edit Rate and Multidimensional Quality Metrics. Our models achieve new state-of-the-art performance on the WMT 2019 Metrics shared task and demonstrate robustness to high-performing systems.
Experimental Review of Neural-based approaches for Network Intrusion Management
Authors: Mario Di Mauro, Giovanni Galatro, Antonio Liotta
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Intrusion Detection, Management

The use of Machine Learning (ML) techniques in Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) has taken a prominent role in the network security management field, due to the substantial number of sophisticated attacks that often pass undetected through classic IDSs. These are typically aimed at recognising attacks based on a specific signature, or at detecting anomalous events. However, deterministic, rule-based methods often fail to differentiate particular (rarer) network conditions (as in peak traffic during specific network situations) from actual cyber attacks. In this paper we provide an experimental-based review of neural-based methods applied to intrusion detection issues. Specifically, we i) offer a complete view of the most prominent neural-based techniques relevant to intrusion detection, including deep-based approaches or weightless neural networks, which feature surprising outcomes; ii) evaluate novel datasets (updated w.r.t. the obsolete KDD99 set) through a designed-from-scratch Python-based routine; iii) perform experimental analyses including time complexity and performance (accuracy and F-measure), considering both single-class and multi-class problems, and identifying trade-offs between resource consumption and performance. Our evaluation quantifies the value of neural networks, particularly when state-of-the-art datasets are used to train the models. This leads to interesting guidelines for security managers and computer network practitioners who are looking at the incorporation of neural-based ML into IDS.
Thermal and IR Drop Analysis Using Convolutional Encoder-Decoder Networks
Authors: Vidya A. Chhabria, Vipul Ahuja, Ashwath Prabhu, Nikhil Patil, Palkesh Jain, Sachin S. Sapatnekar
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: Decoder, Translation

Computationally expensive temperature and power grid analyses are required during the design cycle to guide IC design. This paper employs encoder-decoder based generative (EDGe) networks to map these analyses to fast and accurate image-to-image and sequence-to-sequence translation tasks. The network takes a power map as input and outputs the corresponding temperature or IR drop map. We propose two networks: (i) ThermEDGe: a static and dynamic full-chip temperature estimator and (ii) IREDGe: a full-chip static IR drop predictor based on input power, power grid distribution, and power pad distribution patterns. The models are design-independent and must be trained just once for a particular technology and packaging solution. ThermEDGe and IREDGe are demonstrated to rapidly predict the on-chip temperature and IR drop contours in milliseconds (in contrast with commercial tools that require several hours or more) and provide an average error of 0.6% and 0.008% respectively.
Psoriasis Severity Assessment with a Similarity-Clustering Machine Learning Approach Reduces Intra- and Inter-observation variation
Authors: Arman Garakani, Martin Malmstedt-Miller, Ionela Manole, Adrian Y. Rossler, John R. Zibert
Date: 2020-09-18 00:00:00
Tasks: BIG-bench Machine Learning, Clustering

Psoriasis is a complex disease with many variations in genotype and phenotype. General advancements in medicine has further complicated both assessments and treatment for both physicians and dermatologist alike. Even with all of our technological progress we still primarily use the assessment tool Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) for severity assessments which was developed in the 1970s. In this study we evaluate a method involving digital images, a comparison web application and similarity clustering, developed to improve the assessment tool in terms of intra- and inter-observer variation. Images of patients was collected from a mobile device. Images were captured of the same lesion area taken approximately 1 week apart. Five dermatologists evaluated the severity of psoriasis by modified-PASI, absolute scoring and a relative pairwise PASI scoring using similarity-clustering and conducted using a web-program displaying two images at a time. mPASI scoring of single photos by the same or different dermatologist showed mPASI ratings of 50% to 80%, respectively. Repeated mPASI comparison using similarity clustering showed consistent mPASI ratings > 95%. Pearson correlation between absolute scoring and pairwise scoring progression was 0.72.