The Democrats are already backing Stock, so she'll get their dependable 47% of the statewide vote.  Metcalfe won't even score as well as Theresa Obermeyer in 1996.  Give him 1-2%.  That leaves 51 -52%.  The angry white guys will vote for Miller, giving him 10-15% of the vote.  That means Murkowski draws 36-42%.  That was enough to put her over the top last time, but not this time.  Democrats won't vote for her twice.

Miller just handed the race to Stock.  The Senate was already likely to flip to the Democrats.  Now the Republicans have lost what by all rights should be a bullet proof seat.  Assuming Clinton wins the presidency (and the odds are looking good for her), she's going to have a Senate that's one seat friendlier than she was already anticipating.  All because of Joe Miller's ego.

On the bright side, this will be Genuine Diamelle Joe's last stand.  The Republicans will never take him back after this stunt.  Maybe he'll finally get job when it's all over.