The Corps of Engineers probably has the largest number of hydrologists of any organization in the world. Regardless, modelling takes time, and once the main spillway failure occurred, time was not on their side.

The underlying defects that led to failure of the main spillway, and the mistaken analysis of the erosion tolerance of the emergency spillway were the main oversights here. I have difficulty lodging much criticism of the current managers who were stuck in a difficult situation, on the basis that not every decision made turned out to be the best possible decision. There was too much happening too quickly to expect optimization. As it was, the response proved adequate.

Also, the Friends of the River group mentioned in the article has no credibility. I read their 2005 complaint. It has no relevance to what actually happened. Actually, the complaint contradicted itself in one of its major arguments, but the character limit for posting doesn't let me discuss that here.