Roughly the same odds as Wynne holding on to power in the next beauty contest.

Seriously, though, why do the right insist on self-immolation with every leadership contest?  The last federal contest was a bloody farce, with Andrew "I won because I am the least hated" Scheer walking away with the marbles.

It's probably time the ficons and the socons formed different factions.  They are fundamentally at odds with each other, and their incessant squabbling probably does their political opponents more good than a split vote would.