A couple of observations based on 20 years of dipnetting off the beach: if there are fish coming into the river, you will catch them. Yep, you might get skunked once in a while, you might have a slow day, but that's just your bad timing. If you persist, you will get your fish.  I honestly can't correlate commercial activity with dipnetting success on any given day over the many days I have fished off the beach. 
     The Kenai River is not a damn supermarket. Better buy your fish from a broker or one of the food webs. The entitled attitude of many Anchorage fisherman would be laughable if it weren't so annoying.  We support our commercial fishermen and the biologists that do their best to guess what is going on with the run.