True the economy does tend to play a role although most know we are a global economy so how we stand up to other G7 countries is the bigger issue.  We are due for another recession and will likely have one before the next election.  If we aren't hit as bad as others like the last recession, then Trudeau will get credit for steering us through, but if hit harder than others like in the early 80s and early 90s recession he will be punished although probably not as bad as the Liberals in 1984 or PCs in 1993 as usually people tend to cut PM's more slack in their first term than if they have been there for a while.