Trump's first bluff with China was his blunder over the One China policy, and he folded like a house of cards, causing the Chinese to laughingly proclaim him a paper tiger. The armada bluff was similarly disastrous. You have to be as naive as Trump to think that the Chinese don't know where US aircraft carriers are at all times — and that they don't share that information with North Korea. Calling the armada story a bluff is giving Trump too much credit; more likely it was a spontaneous lie that left the White House staff scrambling to provide cover for him. When the inevitable happened — Trump's lie was exposed — Trump just looked like a fool, again.