This analysis only holds if you don't get really sick or have a bad accident.  If that had happened while you had no insurance you would have used expensive hospital services you would be unable to pay for as you state you can't afford insurance premiums.  At that point your health care is paid for by the hospital or your fellow Americans.  You become a leach on the system and we tax payers get to pay for it when you lose your personal game of health insurance Russian roulette.