"....even the third of the population that genuinely wanted independence would probably have changed their minds."

Actually in the end of the day 80% remained patriots. The rest of your comment is pure speculation and has no merit. I can just as easily say if Trump was elected POTUS in 1789 all those loyal to the crown that scurried off to Canada would have returned.  Sorry. 
http://www.ushistory.org/us/11b.asp