So, spit balling the race based on this article: Tokuda still sits in the catbird seat and is probably the only one that is still able to, politically, write her own ticket and get support for whatever she wants to do. She has earned goodwill with the people and those who are vying to be players in Hawaii politics see this as a critical asset. 
Arakawa is, on a much lesser scale, playing the role of Tom Gill, an outsider who is looking to shake up the establishment. 
Espero is going to be hobbled by his critical comments on policing and police department management. 
Green got money, but does he have the name recognition to make a difference? I will tell you that Tokuda has higher name recognition right now just on her performance as Chair of Ways and Means. 
Final thought: This is a perfect time for the chair of the Poltical Party that all of these pol's are members of to step up and show some leadership in vetting and putting forward the best candidate for these offices.