I am changing the way the curve is generated starting in Jan 2004 to better replicate seasonal fundamentals. There are convincing arguments as to why the summer/winter spreads should tighten over time. However, in the previous methodology they blew out. For instance summer/winter in Cal 3 was .232 while Cal 10 was .256. I have added a seasonality dampening function that both contracts the summer/winter spread and applies a premium to the electric load demand months of July and August over time. The formula for the curve remains the same except for a premium lookup for the month as well as for the year. These premiums are as follows: Jan -.008 Feb -.004 Mar -.001 Apr .002 May .003 Jun .004 Jul .004 Aug .004 Sep .003 Oct .002 Nov -.003 Dec -.006 These premiums start in Jan 2004 On Wednesday Jan 2003 settled 2.959, the 3/4 spread was marked at .0375, the 4/5 spread was marked at .0475. In the old methodology Jan 2003 = 2.959 Jan 2004 = 2.959 + .0375 = 2.9965 Jan 2005 = 2.9965 + .0475 = 3.044 In the new methodology Jan 2003 = 2.959 Jan 2004 = 2.959 + .0375 - .008 =2.9885 Jan 2005 = 2.9885 + .0475 -.008 = 3.028 The only change in the formula is from: Month x = Month (x- 1 year) + lookup on year on year table to Month x = Month (x- 1 year) + lookup on year on year table + lookup on month premium table The seasonality premiums will change over time and I will let you know when I change them
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New curve generation methodology