TASK DEFINITION: In this task, you are given a part of an article. Your task is to generate headline (title) for this text. Preferred headlines are under fifteen words.
PROBLEM: Deep neural networks have proved very successful in domains where large training sets are available, but when the number of training samples is small, their performance suffers from overfitting. Prior methods of reducing overfitting such as weight decay, Dropout and DropConnect are data-independent. This paper proposes a new method, GraphConnect, that is data-dependent, and is motivated by the observation that data of interest lie close to a manifold. The new method encourages the relationships between the learned decisions to resemble a graph representing the manifold structure. Essentially GraphConnect is designed to learn attributes that are present in data samples in contrast to weight decay, Dropout and DropConnect which are simply designed to make it more difficult to fit to random error or noise. Empirical Rademacher complexity is used to connect the generalization error of the neural network to spectral properties of the graph learned from the input data. This framework is used to show that GraphConnect is superior to weight decay. Experimental results on several benchmark datasets validate the theoretical analysis, and show that when the number of training samples is small, GraphConnect is able to significantly improve performance over weight decay.

SOLUTION: GraphConnect: A Regularization Framework for Neural Networks

PROBLEM: This paper studies theoretically and empirically a method of turning machinelearning algorithms into probabilistic predictors that automatically enjoys a property of validity (perfect calibration) and is computationally efficient. The price to pay for perfect calibration is that these probabilistic predictors produce imprecise (in practice, almost precise for large data sets) probabilities. When these imprecise probabilities are merged into precise probabilities, the resulting predictors, while losing the theoretical property of perfect calibration, are consistently more accurate than the existing methods in empirical studies. The conference version of this paper is to appear in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 28, 2015.

SOLUTION: Large-scale probabilistic prediction with and without validity guarantees

PROBLEM: A methodology for the development of a fuzzy expert system (FES) with application to earthquake prediction is presented. The idea is to reproduce the performance of a human expert in earthquake prediction. To do this, at the first step, rules provided by the human expert are used to generate a fuzzy rule base. These rules are then fed into an inference engine to produce a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and to infer the results. In this paper, we have used a Sugeno type fuzzy inference system to build the FES. At the next step, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to refine the FES parameters and improve its performance. The proposed framework is then employed to attain the performance of a human expert used to predict earthquakes in the Zagros area based on the idea of coupled earthquakes. While the prediction results are promising in parts of the testing set, the general performance indicates that prediction methodology based on coupled earthquakes needs more investigation and more complicated reasoning procedure to yield satisfactory predictions.

SOLUTION:
A Fuzzy Expert System for Earthquake Prediction, Case Study: The Zagros Range