In this task, you're given a paragraph from the research paper and your task is to generate a suitable title for the research paper based on the given paper. Under 100 words is a good title length.

Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as the number of households infected by each infected household. This method is validated by numerical simulations of the spread of influenza and measles using historical data, and estimates are obtained for would-be emerging epidemics of these viruses. I argue that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation.
Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic

A major obstacle to anticipating the cross-species transmission of zoonotic diseases and developing novel strategies for their control is the scarcity of data informing how these pathogens circulate within natural reservoir populations. Vampire bats are the primary reservoir of rabies in Latin America, where the disease remains among the most important viral zoonoses affecting humans and livestock. Unpredictable spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies within bat populations have precluded anticipation of outbreaks and undermined widespread bat culling programs. By analysing 1146 vampire bat-transmitted rabies (VBR) outbreaks in livestock across 12 years in Peru, we demonstrate that viral expansions into historically uninfected zones have doubled the recent burden of VBR. Viral expansions are geographically widespread, but severely constrained by high elevation peaks in the Andes mountains. Within Andean valleys, invasions form wavefronts that are advancing towards large, unvaccinated livestock populations that are heavily bitten by bats, which together will fuel high transmission and mortality. Using spatial models, we forecast the pathways of ongoing VBR epizootics across heterogeneous landscapes. These results directly inform vaccination strategies to mitigate impending viral emergence, reveal VBR as an emerging rather than an enzootic disease and create opportunities to test novel interventions to manage viruses in bat reservoirs.
Spatial expansions and travelling waves of rabies in vampire bats

A B S T R A C T Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) is a very contagious swine pathogen that spreads easily via the fecaloral route, notably from contaminated fomites. The present study investigated heated water as a method for rapid thermal inactivation of PEDV. Cell-culture adapted PEDV was treated with water at varying temperatures and viral titers were measured at multiple time points post-treatment. Viable PEDV was not recovered after a ten second or longer treatment with water heated to 76C; however, PEDV nucleic acid was detected in all samples regardless of treatment. Hot water decontamination could be considered in settings where chemical disinfection is impractical.
Inactivation of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus using heated water