Paul: Here's additional info for the "curtailment" data that we're pulling together. Utility Pricing for Core Gas Customers Prior to the month in question, the utility forecasts gas prices based on NYMEX monthly prices. So for example, based on November's forecast, the utility sets prices to be charged to core consumers in December. When December's over, the utility compares forecast prices with actual prices. If the forecast was too low, and there's an undercollection, the utility will increase January's price forecast by "just enough" to make up for the December undercollection. If prices were too high and there's an overcollection, the utility will reduce January price forecast by just enough to refund the overcollection. If the overcollection/undercollection is very large, the utilities have generally spread out the "true-up" over several months to avoid "rate shock" one way or the other. However, under the current circumstances, the utilities may be less willing to spread it out, and may wish to recover the entire undercollection in the following month. In short, there's at least a one-month lag in customer prices to account for differences in forecasts versus actual.
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Pricing for CA IOU's Core Gas Customers