Robin Barbe did a long term sale to EES. The volume is 1200 dt/day. EES has the option of taking delivery at Tenn Zone 5, meter #20816 or on CNG (Dominion), meter DOMSP. The contract price to EES is the same at both locations. Deal 624140 is the sale on Tenn. EES requested the volumes on CNG effective 3/23/2001. I created deal 686905 for the sale on EES. Kimat, I assume the CNG will need to hedged.
Answer: Long term sale to EES
EPMI's request to participate in the 29 Oct 01 FERC conference was granted. I will be on one of two panels and I will be given 5 minutes to give a statement. Please review the attached draft statement / talking points for EPMI and PGE and get me comments by COB Monday. One question is whether we need to change what PGE is proposing to say in light of our position (rule certainty, make any changes to caps consistently accross the WSCC). I will be meeting with the West Desk folks on Tuesday morning (schedules permitting). Please let me know if you want to participate in that meeting. Here is who I think will be on these panels thusfar: California Rep. Anna Eshoo (D Atherton) Pacificorp Allegheny Supply (anybody know who might be speaking for them?) Powerex/TGF Richard Tabors (note that Enron is a member of TGF but has made it clear it is not funding this effort) PGE Mike Naeve EMPI Alan Comnes CAISO Puget Energy - Kimberly Harris and 5 other parties BPA and WPTF will not be speaking. I was told Commissioners "may" be present. Alan Comnes
Answer: 29 Oct 01 FERC Conference on Westwide Mitigation
I have received questions about interpreting the ratio. Let me use yesterday's closing price. The merger probability is derived from a two scenario test, merger closure or merger non closure (there is also a competing offer scenario in reality). Let's use a closing DYN price of $46.20 yesterday (note I had a typo), at the exchange ratio, (not taking into account timing and dividends), this yields a merged ENE price of $12.40 ($46.20 * .2685). ENE closed at $10.00 yesterday. Thus if the market thought there was complete certainty of merger, the prices would converge at $12.40. Now comes the artful part, the non merger ENE price. I included another tab (Merger) to sensitize this. Say we pick an ENE price with no merger of $4.00. Looking at a deterministic probability, one can look at the distance (difference) in dollars to calculate the probability. For instance: ENE merged 12.40 ENE close 14-Nov 10.00 ENE no merger 4.00 Probability of merger = (1-((12.40-10.00) / (12.40 - 4.00))) or 71.4%. Said another way, there is a 71.4% chance of being worth $12.40 and a 28.6% chance of being worth $4.00, which yields a weighted price of $10.00 ($12.40 * 71.4%)+($4.00 * 28.6%). I also included a $1 distressed ENE price and a $7 previously observed low end ENE price as scenarios. Regards,
Answer: Exchange ratio prices and probability
Group, We are still short 50 mws in ST-WBOM on peak Friday and Saturday at $27.60. For Friday only (as of right now) I have picked up 10 mws of energy flat (24hr schedule). I bought this energy from the APX-deal #840719 at $25. We will be long 10 mws each hour in position manager in SP-15 as a result. Please sell this energy in the off-peak (on-peak will go to fill our W-BOM short). I have scheduled an HA 24 purchase from the APX 1 and have put the energy into the ST-WBOM load zone.
Answer:
Long 10 mws flat in SP-15--