instruction:
In this task, you're given a paragraph from the research paper and your task is to generate a suitable title for the research paper based on the given paper. Under 100 words is a good title length.
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Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as the number of households infected by each infected household. This method is validated by numerical simulations of the spread of influenza and measles using historical data, and estimates are obtained for would-be emerging epidemics of these viruses. I argue that the household reproduction number is useful in assessing the impact of measures that target the household for isolation, quarantine, vaccination or prophylactic treatment, and measures such as social distancing and school or workplace closures which limit between-household transmission, all of which play a key role in current thinking on future infectious disease mitigation.
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Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic

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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is thought to be involved in the pathogenesis of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) type 2, which is defined by the presence of type I antiliver kidney microsome autoantibodies directed mainly against cytochrome P450 (CYP)2D6 and by autoreactive liver infiltrating T cells. Virus-specific CD8 cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) that recognize infected cells and contribute to viral clearance and tissue injury during HCV infection could be involved in the induction of AIH. To explore whether the antiviral cellular immunity may turn against self-antigens, we characterized the primary CTL response against an HLA-A * 0201-restricted HCV-derived epitope, i.e., HCV core 178-187, which shows sequence homology with human CYP2A6 and CYP2A7 8-17. To determine the relevance of these homologies for the pathogenesis of HCV-associated AIH, we used synthetic peptides to induce primary CTL responses in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of healthy blood donors and patients with chronic HCV infection. We found that the naive CTL repertoire of both groups contains cross-reactive CTLs inducible by the HCV peptide recognizing both CYP2A6 and CYP2A7 peptides as well as endogenously processed CYP2A6 protein. Importantly, we failed to induce CTLs with the CYPderived peptides that showed a lower capacity to form stable complexes with the HLA-A2 molecule. These findings demonstrate the potential of HCV to induce autoreactive CD8 CTLs by molecular mimicry, possibly contributing to virus-associated autoimmunity.
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Molecular Mimicry of Human Cytochrome P450 by Hepatitis C Virus at the Level of Cytotoxic T Cell Recognition

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This paper reviews the technical developments in microbiology that led to the discovery of new infectious agents and the effect of these discoveries on establishing proof of causation. In bacteriology, these advances included the light microscope, bacterial stains, bacterial cultures, and the methods used to isolate clones. In virology, they involved the use of filters to separate viruses from bacteria, the electron microscope, the use of laboratory animals, embryonated eggs, tissue cultures to identify or grow the agent, and the recent development of molecular techniques to detect the presence of antigen in tissues. In immunology, they were based on the discovery of antibodies and of the immune response. This paper is dedicated to the late Arthur J. Viseltear, Associate Professor of the History of Medicine and Public Health. He was a dear friend and colleague, and a frequent luncheon companion on the third floor of the Laboratory of Epidemiology and Public Health. There, his wit and wisdom enlivened our conversation on an almost daily basis. His lectures and writing on the history of public health, as well as his personal encouragement of my efforts, were an inspiration to me in my modest writings on certain aspects of this subject. It is an honor to have this opportunity to express my devotion and indebtedness to him in this memorial issue of The Yale Joumal ofBiology and Medicine.
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Causation and Disease: Effect of Technology on Postulates of Causation*