Gaming and simulation: the next twenty-five years
Authors: Henry C. Alberts
Venue: Proceedings of the 17th conference on Winter simulation (1985)

This paper was written for presentation to the March 1982 meeting of the Military Operations Research Society. It was the theme paper for the session on Gaming and Simulation. Since that meeting, the ideas have been presented at a number of meetings of Professional societies; and informally to members of both the Simulation and the Test and Evaluation Communities. The message is that both Communities need to combine and integrate their efforts so that we may not only build a consistent, consistently expanding data base which can be used to design increasingly more focussed Test and Evaluation programs; but also use that data base to run simulations simultaneously with our tests. The result of that combination of capability will not only be beneficial to both communities, but will also provide means to validate in the field the many critical assumptions necessarily built into any model. In short, this paper suggests that Real Time Analysis is of benefit to everyone with a part to play in the complex business of System Design, Acquisition, Operation, and Support, bases began to emerge. These concepts led to establishment of the Combat Development Experimentation Center (CDEC) at Ford Ord, California; the facility which provided the basis for a continuing field data collection effort to try to understand the dynamics of ground warfare. A parallel development was establishment of the Modern Army Selected System Test, Evaluation and Research (MASSTER) activity at Fort Hood, Texas. By 1962 there were ground warfare models, and some data coming from the CDEC activity. But in 1962 CDEC's data collection devices consisted of stop watches, clipboards, and a rather gross position location system based on signs placed over the terrain which the players identified and called out. The real data collection device was the controller, with All his human failings. Why this quick review of history? Because if look back on our current state of the art and methodology from the vantage point of 2008, we might say that little progress had been made in integrating and using data bases for modeling and simulation during 1958 to 1985. I will illustrate what I mean. The past 25 years have seen staggering advances in computational capability. Along with hardware improvements there has been some advance in software technology. My computer friends confidently inform me that we can expect ever greater advances quickly. They predict that 1 megabyte memories soon will be found within a soldier's back pack - thus providing im with picosecond computational capability. The number of models used for computer simulation has increased enormously. Figure 1 lists the 36 models for Air-Ground Force conventional conflict listed in the latest SAGA manual. Each was developed to address different aspects of a Ground-Air battle But there is one common requirement: All models and computer assisted games use data base information as the basis of model or game operation. The quantity and quality of the data base may be the cause of considerable difference in results obtained from one model/game to the next. This is true even when models have been structured to provide comparable results. Even setting aside data base limitations, there is an additional problem - Models and Games are difficult Model rules generally are the product of cerebration with due regard to a data base. Once programmed, any changes to model decision rules can become very difficult. Most importantly, model validation, the acid test, continues to raise practical problems. The Army Model Improvement Program (AMIP) is looking at these problems and is tasked not only to provide improved models for future use, but also to look at the data base used to exercise those models. There is considerable hope that the end result of all this effort will be a believable data base useful across the entire spectrum of models in the Army's active library. The ACM Portal is published by the Association for Computing Machinery. Copyright © 2010 ACM, Inc. Terms of Usage Privacy Policy Code of Ethics Contact Us Useful downloads: Adobe Acrobat QuickTime Windows Media Player Real Player