Computer improvements will continue
Authors: E. Juliussen
Venue: Proceedings of the 1987 Fall Joint Computer Conference on Exploring technology: today and tomorrow (1987)

The computer industry is not the largest industry&mdash;yet&mdash;but it will be number one by the turn of the century. The computer industry is already the most important industry. Computer technological prowess is now considered a most important resource (if not the most important) by many companies and by many countries. Most industrial countries, including the U.S., Japan, Brazil, and several European nations, are funding specific programs and using incentives to catch up or get ahead in computer technology. In order to see how much computers will improve, we must understand the current technological status of computers. In the last 20 years, the spectrum of computers has proliferated until today there are nine distinct, but overlapping, computer product segments. Figure 1 shows these nine existing product segments [1]. The horizontal axis indicates the computer system price; the vertical axis shows relative computer performance. It is a qualitative picture and should not be used for quantitative comparisons. Personal computers and workstations are computers designed for use by individuals. The other products are multiuser computers designed for departmental or corporate-wide use by many individuals simultaneously. Minisupercomputers are the newest computer category and are only a few years old. They are a mixture of minicomputer and supercomputer technology. Prices of a few hundred thousand dollars are common. Minisupers often use multiple processors to achieve their high performance. Minisupercomputers are sometimes called &ldquo;Crayettes&rdquo; after Cray, the leading manufacturer of supercomputers. Figure 1 is not static. Over time there are likely to be additional computer categories. A product category likely to be added in the near term is so-called &ldquo;personal supercomputers,&rdquo; which are computers designed for individuals but which have much higher performance than PCs and workstations. The improvement in computer technology has been phenomenal in the last 35 years. In this time span, the performance of the fastest computers has increased nearly a million times. At the same time, the price of entry-level computers has decreased by a factor of 1000. And, there is no end in sight. The performance and price/performance of computers will continue to improve at breakneck speeds. Current technological changes are shown in the table below: Technologies Rate of Improvement Semiconductor &bull; 4X in capacity every 3-3.5 years Memory &bull; 25% price decrease per bit per year Microprocessors &bull; 50% performance increase per year Disks &bull; 4X in capacity every 5 years Displays &bull; 3X in resolution every 5 years Printers &bull; 2X in speed every 4 years Connectivity &bull; 4X in performance every 5 years Semiconductor (or integrated circuits) technology is the key to computer technological advances. Improvements in microprocessor and memory chips will be rapid and spectacular. Advancements in peripherals, especially in mass storage and printers, will also be extremely significant. The impact of these technological advances on computers will be profound. Figure 2 shows the expected increases in typical memory sizes for the main computer categories. In the next five years the average memory size will increase threefold for mainframe computers and tenfold for personal computers. Thus, the typical difference in memory size between PCs and mainframes will only be about 3X in 1991 versus 15X today. Why will PCs need so much memory? The reason is that the software environment for personal computers will change dramatically. In the 1990s the typical PC software memory will look something like this: Multitasking Operating System 1.0 Mbyte Graphics User Interface 0.5 Mbyte Data Base Core 0.5 Mbyte Networking Operating System 0.7 Mbyte Connectivity Software 0.8 Mbyte Past Compatibility Emulation 0.5 Mbyte Desktop Management Software 1.0 Mbyte Main Application 4.0 Mbyte Alternate Application 2.0 Mbyte These numbers may seem high today, but may actually be conservative. For example, the IBM PC was introduced in late 1981 with a typical memory of 64 Kbytes. By 1985 many users started complaining about the 640-Kbyte limitation. Another perspective is that in 1991 it will take only 16 memory chips (4-Mbit chips) to reach 8 Mbytes. The performance of computers will also improve dramatically. Current and future performance ranges for the various computer categories are shown in Figure 3. The performance measurement is Dhrystones per second which is a good measure of processor performance (except floating point speed). Microcomputers are expected to improve faster than the larger computers. The reason is that microcomputer systems realize the most gains from the rapid improvement in microprocessor chip technologies. Average mainframe and microcomputer performance will increase by a factor of 2 to 3 while technical workstations and personal computers will increase by 5 to 10 times. There will be tremendous change in hardware technology and in application software. But many of the current computer architectures will remain standards. Figure 4 shows which computer architectures are likely to remain viable in the 1990s. Product prices start at $1,000 and extend to multimillion dollar systems. There may be others that will join this exclusive club; but one thing is certain, many existing computer architectures will slowly fade away. However, remember that nothing dies harder than obsolete technology! Connectivity of computers is rapidly going from the buzzword stage to having real market impact. In the next decade all types of computers will be connected into networks that mirror a company's organizational structure. PCs, workstations, and, to a lesser degree, terminals will be the individual's computing platform. Mainframes and supercomputers will be at the top of the network hierarchy and will serve the whole corporation. Minis and microcomputers will be departmental computers as well as work group servers providing connectivity applications to individual users. Connectivity standards are needed to link all these computers together. Figure 5 shows most of the connectivity standards for the 1990s. The standards are at different levels ranging from transferring bits to transferring applications. The connectivity standards also range from local connectivity (i.e., within buildings) to global connectivity (across states, countries, and continents). Connectivity standards at the bit level, and, to a lesser degree, at the information level are normally formal standards that are set by national or international standard organizations. Application standards are normally de facto standards set by market clout. Figure 6 indicates that there are many ways to improve computers [2]. By using faster and/or smaller components, performance increases and price declines. Current integrated circuit technology will continue to improve for at least another 10 years. Additionally, two new technologies&mdash;gallium arsenide components and cryogenic components&mdash;are likely to be used for high-speed computers in the 1990s and beyond. Recent breakthroughs in superconductivity may finally make cryogenic computers viable in the 1990s. Another method of advancing computer speed is by using multiple computers. Research in multiple computer systems has been intense for 20 years, but it is only now that the technology has advanced far enough to have real commercial impact. In the next couple of years parallel computers using tens of computers will have a notable impact. Later, hundreds and even thousands of computers, usually called massive parallel computers, will have success for special applications. Another technology called neural network computers is showing some intriguing potential. Neural network computers are organized in a manner similar to brain cells and are objects of much research. Computers can also be improved by having better user interfaces. Speech recognition continues to improve. Today only a limited vocabulary&mdash;a few hundred words&mdash;can be recognized by commercial systems. But each year the size of the vocabulary will increase. In 10 years, speech recognition will be very important. Software technology must improve in order to take advantage of all the hardware advancements. Artificial intelligence (AI) is the technology that has the potential to revolutionize software. AI is not an application but a technology that will have tremendous impact on nearly all types of programs. AI is also needed to realize the potential of speech recognition and image processing. Magnetic disk technology will continue as the main mass storage technology, but optical disk technology will gain in importance in the next decade. Finally, there are a few potential technologies that could have a revolutionary impact. Optical computing has been a research topic for 20 years, but only limited advances have taken place. In 10 or more years, optical computers may be commercially available. Organic computers are even further away. It may be possible to make computers in the 21st century by using technology that stems from gene-splitting bio-technology.