pinecone/core-2020-05-10-deduplication huggingface dataset:
Simulation of the mean urban heat island using 2D surface parameters: empirical modeling, verification and extension.

The spatial distribution of the annual mean urban heat island (UHI) intensity was simulated applying\ud
empirical models based on datasets from urban areas of Szeged and Debrecen, using simple and easily determinable urban\ud
surface cover variables. These two cities are situated on the Alf¨old (Great Hungarian Plain) and have similar topographic\ud
and climatic conditions. Temperature field measurements were carried out, Landsat satellite images were evaluated, and then\ud
one- and multiple variable models were constructed using linear regression techniques. The selected multiple-parameter\ud
models were verified using independent datasets from three urban settlements. In order to obtain some impression of the\ud
mean UHI patterns in other cities with no temperature measurements available, the better model was extended to urban\ud
areas of four other cities situated in geographical environments similar to Szeged and Debrecen. The main shortcoming\ud
of typical empirical models, namely that they are often restricted to a specific location, is overcome by the obtained\ud
model since it is not entirely site but more region specific, and valid in a large and densely populated area with several\ud
settlements
Characterizing North Atlantic weather patterns for climate-optimal aircraft routing\ud

Daily weather patterns over the North Atlantic are classified into relevant types: typical weather patterns that may characterize the range of climate impacts from aviation in this region, for both summer and winter. The motivation is to provide a set of weather types to facilitate an investigation of climate-optimal aircraft routing of trans-Atlantic flights (minimizing the climate impact on a flight-by-flight basis). Using the New York to London route as an example, the time-optimal route times are shown to vary by over 60 min, to take advantage of strong tailwinds or avoid headwinds, and for eastbound routes latitude correlates well with the latitude of the jet stream. The weather patterns are classified by their similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic teleconnection patterns. For winter, five types are defined; in summer, when there is less variation in jet latitude, only three types are defined. The types can be characterized by the jet strength and position, and therefore the location of the time-optimal routes varies by type. Simple proxies for the climate impact of carbon dioxide, ozone, water vapour and contrails are defined, which depend on parameters such as the route time, latitude and season, the time spent flying in the stratosphere, and the distance over which the air is supersaturated with respect to ice. These proxies are then shown to vary between weather types and between eastbound and westbound routes
Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa

Forecasts of a Global Coupled Model for Austral summer with a 1-month lead are
downscaled to end-of-season maize yields and accumulated streamflow over the Limpopo
Province and adjacent districts in northeastern South Africa through application of a MOS
(Model Output Statistics) approach applied over a 28-year period. Promising results, based on the hindcasts of the Global Models and historically observed yield and streamflow data,
suggest potential for a commodity-orientated forecast system for application in agriculture in
an operational environment. It also serves as a baseline study for inclusion of sophisticated
crop or runoff models utilising GCM output data towards estimating potential yields and
streamflows in the region.SATREPS and by ACCESS.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1469-8080hb201
Three recommendations for evaluating climate predictions

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley / Royal Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.Evaluation is important for improving climate prediction systems and establishing the credibility of their predictions of the future. This paper shows how the choices that must be made about how to evaluate predictions affect the outcome and ultimately our view of the prediction system's quality. The aim of evaluation is to measure selected attributes of the predictions, but some attributes are susceptible to having their apparent performance artificially inflated by the presence of climate trends, thus rendering past performance an unreliable indicator of future performance. We describe a class of performance measures that are immune to such spurious skill. The way in which an ensemble prediction is interpreted also has strong implications for the apparent performance, so we give recommendations about how evaluation should be tailored to different interpretations. Finally, we explore the role of the timescale of the predictand in evaluation and suggest ways to describe the relationship between timescale and performance. The ideas in this paper are illustrated using decadal temperature hindcasts from the CMIP5 archive.This work was part of the EQUIP project (http://www.equip.leeds.ac.uk) funded by NERC Directed Grant NE/H003509/1. The authors thank Leon Hermanson, Doug Smith and Holger Pohlmann for useful discussion, Helen Hanlon for assistance with obtaining data, and two anonymous reviewers for comments that helped us to improve the presentation of our ideas
Seasonal temperature prediction skill over Southern Africa and human health

An assessment of probabilistic prediction skill of seasonal temperature extremes over southern African is
presented. Verification results are presented for six run-on seasons; September to November, October to
December, November to January, December to February, January to March and February to April over a 15-
year retroactive period. Comparisons are drawn between downscaled seasonal 850 hPa geopotential height
field forecasts of a two-tiered system versus downscaled height forecasts from a coupled ocean-atmosphere
system. The ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model is used for both systems; in the one-tiered
system the ECHAM4.5 is directly coupled to the ocean model MOM3, and the two-tiered system the ECHAM4.5
is forced with Van den Dool SST hindcasts. Model output statistic equations are developed using canonical
correlation analysis to reduce system deficiencies. Probabilistic verification is conducted using the relative
operating characteristic (ROC) and reliability diagram. The coupled model performs best in capturing seasonal
maximum temperature extremes. Seasons demonstrating the highest ROC scores coincide with the period of
highest seasonal temperatures found over southern Africa. The above-normal category of the one-tiered system
indicates the highest skill in predicting maximum temperature extremes, implying the coupled model skilfully
predicts when there is a high likelihood of experiencing extremely high seasonal maximum temperatures during
mid to late summer. The downscaled coupled maximum temperature hindcasts are additionally evaluated in
terms of their monetary value and quality to the general public. The seasonal forecast system presented here
should be able to reduce risks in decision making by the health industry in southern Africa.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1469-80802015-10-31hb201
Field trial of an automated ground-based infrared cloud classification system

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: RUMI, E. ... et al, 2015. Field trial of an automated ground-based infrared cloud classification system. Meteorological Applications, 22(4), pp.779-788., which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.1523. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.Automated classification of cloud types using a ground-based infrared imager can provide invaluable high resolution and localised information for Air Traffic Controllers. Observations can be made consistently, continuously in real time and accurately during both day and night operation. Details of a field trial of an automated, ground-based infrared cloud classification system are presented. The system was designed at Campbell Scientific ltd in collaboration with Loughborough University, UK. The main objective of the trial was to assess the performance of an automated infrared camera system with a lightning detector in classifying several types of clouds, specifically Cumulonimbus and Towering Cumulus, during continuous day and night operation. Results from the classification system were compared with those obtained from Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METAR) and with data generated by the UK Meteorological Office from their radar and sferics automated cloud reports system. In comparisons with METAR data, a Probability of Detection of up to 82% was achieved, together with a minimum Probability of False Detection of 18%
Downscaling of monthly precipitation using CMIP5 climate models operated under RCPs

Downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) outputs extracted from CMIP5 datasets to monthly precipitation for the Gediz Basin, Turkey, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) was performed by statistical downscaling models, multi-GCM ensemble and bias correction. The output databases from 12 GCMs were used for the projections. To determine explanatory predictor variables, the correlation analysis was applied between precipitation observed at 39 meteorological stations located over the Basin and potential predictors of ERA-Interim reanalysis data. After setting both artificial neural networks and least-squares support vector machine-based statistical downscaling models calibrated with determined predictor variables, downscaling models producing the most suitable results were chosen for each meteorological station. The selected downscaling model structure for each station was then operated with historical and future scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Afterwards, the monthly precipitation forecasts were obtained from a multi-GCM ensemble based on Bayesian model averaging and bias correction applications. The statistical significance of the foreseen changes for the future period 2015–2050 was investigated using Student's t test. The projected decrease trend in precipitation is significant for the RCP8.5 scenario, whereas it is less significant for the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios.Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (114Y716
Analysis of extreme rainfall in Barcelona using a microscale rain gauge network

Extreme storms registered by the urban rain gauge network installed and supported by CLABSA\ud
(Clavegueram de Barcelona S. A.) in Barcelona in the period 1994–2001 have been investigated. Eleven rain events\ud
presenting intensities for durations between 5 min and 24 h with return periods equal to or larger than 5 years for any\ud
of the network gauges have been found. A cluster analysis has yielded four main classes of extreme rainfall events in\ud
this area, related to the meteorological scales involved: local (18%), mesoscale (37%) and synoptic storms (27%), as well\ud
as more complex rain events originated by multiscale mechanisms acting together (18%). An intensity index to classify\ud
extreme rainfall events in order to their complexity and severity, taking into account the contribution of the different scales\ud
implied in the rainfall processes, has been calculated. The frequency distribution of the intensity index values obtained for\ud
the urban network has resulted very similar to that calculated for rain data recorded by the Jard´ı gauge of the Observatory\ud
Fabra of Barcelona during 1927–1992 inclusive.Postprint (published version
Crosswind Thresholds Supporting Wake-Vortex-Free Corridors for Departing Aircraft

During two field measurement campaigns aircraft wake vortex trajectory and wind measurement data have been collected at Frankfurt airport. Three different approaches to analyse the data have been used in order to estimate crosswind threshold values supporting vortex-free corridors for departing aircraft. Although several competing effects as wake vortex transport in and out of ground effect, temporal and spatial wind variability, and the spreading of aircraft trajectories after take-off complicate the analyses, all three approaches lead to similar crosswind thresholds. Employing standard instrumentation at 10 m height a minimum crosswind threshold of 3.5 – 4.6 ms-1 has been identified to clear a safety corridor of 150 m width from wake vortices with a 95% probability within 60 seconds. Alternative estimations of crosswind thresholds employing different instrumentation and different height ranges are reported. Crosswind thresholds can be reduced if the wind is measured close to the air mass in which the vortices evolve. A definite crosswind threshold for operational use cannot be deduced solely from this study since critical factors like risk and safety assessment have not yet been taken into account
On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores

Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological SocietyFour recent papers have investigated the effects of ensemble size on the Brier score (BS) and discrete ranked probability score (RPS) attained by ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts. The connections between these papers are described and their results are generalized. In particular, expressions, explanations and estimators for the expected effect of ensemble size on the RPS and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) are obtained. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
Use of potential vorticity in monitoring and improving numerical analyses and simulations of severe winter storms in Western Europe.

Despite the large improvements of numerical weather prediction models (NWP) during the last decades, including more advanced data assimilation methods that allow extensive use of satellite data, such models still occasionally produce forecast failures. Though these forecast errors are rare, they tend to involve cases of rapid cyclogenesis that cause dangerous weather.
This investigation deals with a method that allows the human forecaster to improve the numerical analyses and forecasts in cases of imminent strong cyclogenesis.
The combined use of potential vorticity (PV) fields in the numerical analyses and information retrieved from Meteosat water vapor (WV) images reveals analysis errors early in the stage of strong cyclogenesis. It is demonstrated that manual correction of the PV fields in the analysis according to information retrieved from the WV images can improve the short range forecasts of rapid cyclogenesis substantially. This is achieved by performing inversion of the corrected PV fields. By this method a new, dynamically consistent analysis is produced, from which a numerical resimulation is carried out. It is further demonstrated that singular vectors constitute an additional important tool in this process, by allowing PV corrections to be performed in sensitive regions. This procedure makes it possible to determine the likely 3-dimensional structure of the required PV modifications. The beneficial effects by this method may have some limitations in cases of downstream developments
Novel insights into the molecular pathogenesis of CYP4V2-associated Bietti's retinal dystrophy

Contains fulltext :
                  153526.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)Bietti's crystalline dystrophy (BCD) is a rare, autosomal recessive retinal degenerative disease associated with mutations in CYP4V2. In this study, we describe the genetic and clinical findings in 19 unrelated BCD patients recruited from five international retinal dystrophy clinics. Patients underwent ophthalmic examinations and were screened for CYP4V2 mutations by Sanger sequencing and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) copy number variation screening. Eight CYP4V2 mutations were found in 10/19 patients, including three patients in whom only monoallelic mutations were detected. Four novel mutations were identified: c.604G>A; p.(Glu202Lys), c.242C>G; p.(Thr81Arg), c.604+4A>G; p.(?), and c.1249dup; p.(Thr417Asnfs*2). In addition, we identified a heterozygous paternally inherited genomic deletion of at least 3.8 Mb, encompassing the complete CYP4V2 gene and several other genes, which is novel. Clinically, patients demonstrated phenotypic variability, predominantly showing choroidal sclerosis, attenuated vessels, and crystalline deposits of varying degrees of severity. To our knowledge, our study reports the first heterozygous CYP4V2 deletion and hence a novel mutational mechanism underlying BCD. Our results emphasize the importance of copy number screening in BCD. Finally, the identification of CYP4V2-negative patients with indistinguishable phenotypes from CYP4V2-positive patients might suggest the presence of mutations outside the coding regions of CYP4V2, or locus heterogeneity, which is unreported so far
Unraveling the pathogenesis of ARX polyalanine tract variants using a clinical and molecular interfacing approach

The Aristaless-related homeobox (ARX) gene is implicated in intellectual disability with the most frequent pathogenic mutations leading to expansions of the first two polyalanine tracts. Here, we describe analysis of the ARX gene outlining the approaches in the Australian and Portuguese setting, using an integrated clinical and molecular strategy. We report variants in the ARX gene detected in 19 patients belonging to 17 families. Seven pathogenic variants, being expansion mutations in both polyalanine tract 1 and tract 2, were identifyed, including a novel mutation in polyalanine tract 1 that expands the first tract to 20 alanines. This precise number of alanines is sufficient to cause pathogenicity when expanded in polyalanine tract 2. Five cases presented a probably non-pathogenic variant, including the novel HGVS: c.441_455del, classified as unlikely disease causing, consistent with reports that suggest that in frame deletions in polyalanine stretches of ARX rarely cause intellectual disability. In addition, we identified five cases with a variant of unclear pathogenic significance. Owing to the inconsistent ARX variants description, publications were reviewed and ARX variant classifications were standardized and detailed unambiguously according to recommendations of the Human Genome Variation Society. In the absence of a pathognomonic clinical feature, we propose that molecular analysis of the ARX gene should be included in routine diagnostic practice in individuals with either nonsyndromic or syndromic intellectual disability. A definitive diagnosis of ARX-related disorders is crucial for an adequate clinical follow-up and accurate genetic counseling of at-risk family members.Isabel Marques, Maria João Sá, Gabriela Soares, Maria do Céu Mota, Carla Pinheiro, Lisa Aguiar, Marta Amado, Christina Soares, Angelina Calado, Patrícia Dias, Ana Berta Sousa, Ana Maria Fortuna, Rosário Santos, Katherine B. Howell, Monique M. Ryan, Richard J Leventer, Rani Sachdev, Rachael Catford, Kathryn Friend, Tessa R. Mattiske, Cheryl Shoubridge, Paula Jorg
Unraveling the pathogenesis of ARX polyalanine tract variants using a clinical and molecular interfacing approach

The Aristaless-related homeobox (ARX) gene is implicated in intellectual disability with the most frequent pathogenic mutations leading to expansions of the first two polyalanine tracts. Here, we describe analysis of the ARX gene outlining the approaches in the Australian and Portuguese setting, using an integrated clinical and molecular strategy. We report variants in the ARX gene detected in 19 patients belonging to 17 families. Seven pathogenic variants, being expansion mutations in both polyalanine tract 1 and tract 2, were identifyed, including a novel mutation in polyalanine tract 1 that expands the first tract to 20 alanines. This precise number of alanines is sufficient to cause pathogenicity when expanded in polyalanine tract 2. Five cases presented a probably non-pathogenic variant, including the novel HGVS: c.441_455del, classified as unlikely disease causing, consistent with reports that suggest that in frame deletions in polyalanine stretches of ARX rarely cause intellectual disability. In addition, we identified five cases with a variant of unclear pathogenic significance. Owing to the inconsistent ARX variants description, publications were reviewed and ARX variant classifications were standardized and detailed unambiguously according to recommendations of the Human Genome Variation Society. In the absence of a pathognomonic clinical feature, we propose that molecular analysis of the ARX gene should be included in routine diagnostic practice in individuals with either nonsyndromic or syndromic intellectual disability. A definitive diagnosis of ARX-related disorders is crucial for an adequate clinical follow-up and accurate genetic counseling of at-risk family members.Unit for Multidisciplinary Research in Biomedicine, UMIB, ICBAS-UP, Porto, Portugal was funded by FEDER funds of the Operational Program for Competitiveness Factors – COMPETE through FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology under the project: Fcomp-01-0124-FEDER-015896. The Neurogenetics research program in the Department of Paediatrics, University of Adelaide, Australia was funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (Grant No. 1063025). C. S. is supported Australian Research Council (Future Fellowship FT120100086
Novel recruitment strategy to enrich for LRRK2 mutation carriers

The LRRK2 G2019S mutation is found at higher frequency among Parkinson disease (PD) patients of Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) ancestry. This study was designed to test whether an internet-based approach could be an effective approach to screen and identify mutation carriers. Individuals with and without PD of AJ ancestry were recruited and consented through an internet-based study website. An algorithm was applied to a series of screening questions to identify individuals at increased risk to carry the LRRK2 G2019S mutation. About 1000 individuals completed the initial screening. Around 741 qualified for mutation testing and 650 were tested. Seventy-two individuals carried at least one LRRK2 G2019S mutation; 38 with PD (12.5%) and 34 without (10.1%). Among the AJ PD participants, each affected first-degree relative increased the likelihood the individual was LRRK2+ [OR = 4.7; 95% confidence interval = (2.4–9.0)]. The same was not observed among the unaffected AJ subjects (P = 0.11). An internet-based approach successfully screened large numbers of individuals to identify those with risk factors increasing the likelihood that they carried a LRRK2 G2019S mutation. A similar approach could be implemented in other disorders to identify individuals for clinical trials, biomarker analyses and other types of research studies