pinecone/core-2020-05-10-deduplication huggingface dataset:
Prevalence, incidence and mortality from cardiovascular disease in patients with pooled and specific severe mental illness: a large-scale meta-analysis of 3,211,768 patients and 113,383,368 controls

People with severe mental illness (SMI) - schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder - appear at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but a comprehensive meta-analysis is lacking. We conducted a large-scale meta-analysis assessing the prevalence and incidence of CVD; coronary heart disease; stroke, transient ischemic attack or cerebrovascular disease; congestive heart failure; peripheral vascular disease; and CVD-related death in SMI patients (N=3,211,768) versus controls (N=113,383,368) (92 studies). The pooled CVD prevalence in SMI patients (mean age 50 years) was 9.9% (95% CI: 7.4-13.3). Adjusting for a median of seven confounders, patients had significantly higher odds of CVD versus controls in cross-sectional studies (odds ratio, OR=1.53, 95% CI: 1.27-1.83; 11 studies), and higher odds of coronary heart disease (OR=1.51, 95% CI: 1.47-1.55) and cerebrovascular disease (OR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.21-1.66). People with major depressive disorder were at increased risk for coronary heart disease, while those with schizophrenia were at increased risk for coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and congestive heart failure. Cumulative CVD incidence in SMI patients was 3.6% (95% CI: 2.7-5.3) during a median follow-up of 8.4 years (range 1.8-30.0). Adjusting for a median of six confounders, SMI patients had significantly higher CVD incidence than controls in longitudinal studies (hazard ratio, HR=1.78, 95% CI: 1.60-1.98; 31 studies). The incidence was also higher for coronary heart disease (HR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.30-1.82), cerebrovascular disease (HR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.26-2.14), congestive heart failure (HR=2.10, 95% CI: 1.64-2.70), and CVD-related death (HR=1.85, 95% CI: 1.53-2.24). People with major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia were all at increased risk of CVD-related death versus controls. CVD incidence increased with antipsychotic use (p=0.008), higher body mass index (p=0.008) and higher baseline CVD prevalence (p=0.03) in patients vs
Bivariate mixed distribution with a heavy-tailed component and its application to single-site daily rainfall simulation

This paper presents an improved bivariate mixed distribution, which is capable of modeling the dependence of daily rainfall from two distinct sources (e.g., rainfall from two stations, two consecutive days, or two instruments such as satellite and rain gauge). The distribution couples an existing framework for building a bivariate mixed distribution, the theory of copulae and a hybrid marginal distribution. Contributions of the improved distribution are twofold. One is the appropriate selection of the bivariate dependence structure from a wider admissible choice (10 candidate copula families). The other is the introduction of a marginal distribution capable of better representing low to moderate values as well as extremes of daily rainfall. Among several applications of the improved distribution, particularly presented here is its utility for single-site daily rainfall simulation. Rather than simulating rainfall occurrences and amounts separately, the developed generator unifies the two processes by generalizing daily rainfall as a Markov process with autocorrelation described by the improved bivariate mixed distribution. The generator is first tested on a sample station in Texas. Results reveal that the simulated and observed sequences are in good agreement with respect to essential characteristics. Then, extensive simulation experiments are carried out to compare the developed generator with three other alternative models: the conventional two-state Markov chain generator, the transition probability matrix model, and the semiparametric Markov chain model with kernel density estimation for rainfall amounts. Analyses establish that overall the developed generator is capable of reproducing characteristics of historical extreme rainfall events and is apt at extrapolating rare values beyond the upper range of available observed data. Moreover, it automatically captures the persistence of rainfall amounts on consecutive wet days in a relatively natural and easy way. Another interesting observation is that the recognized ?overdispersion? problem in daily rainfall simulation ascribes more to the loss of rainfall extremes than the under-representation of first-order persistence. The developed generator appears to be a sound option for daily rainfall simulation, especially in particular hydrologic planning situations when rare rainfall events are of great importance
Large-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic modelling of the Amazon River basin

International audienceIn this paper, a hydrologic/hydrodynamic modeling of the Amazon River basin iscpresented using the MGB-IPH model with a validation using remotely sensed observations. Moreover, the sources of model errors by means of the validation and sensitivity tests are investigated, and the physical functioning of the Amazon basin is also explored. The MGBIPH is a physically based model resolving all land hydrological processes and here using a full 1-D river hydrodynamic module with a simple floodplain storage model. Riverfloodplain geometry parameters were extracted from the SRTM digital elevation model, and the model was forced using satellite-derived rainfall from TRMM3B42. Model results agree with observed in situ daily river discharges and water levels and with three complementary satellite-based products: (1) water levels derived from ENVISAT altimetry data; (2) a global data set of monthly inundation extent; and (3) monthly terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experimental mission. However, the model is sensitive to precipitation forcing and river-floodplain parameters. Most of the errors occur in westerly regions, possibly due to the poor quality of TRMM 3B42 rainfall data set in these mountainous and/or poorly monitored areas. In addition, uncertainty in river-floodplain geometry causes errors in simulated water levels and inundation extent, suggesting the need for improvement of parameter estimation methods. Finally, analyses of Amazon hydrological processes demonstrate that surface waters govern most of the Amazon TWS changes (56%), followed by soil water (27%) and ground water (8%). Moreover, floodplains play a major role in stream flow routing, although backwater effects are also important to delay and attenuate flood waves
Links between soil properties and steady-state solute transport through cultivated topsoil at the field scale

It is known that solute transport through soil is heterogeneous at all spatial scales. However, little data are available to allow quantification of these heterogeneities at the field scale or larger. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of soil properties, hydrologic state variables, and tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs) at the field scale for the inert solute transport under a steady-state irrigation rate which produced near-saturated conditions. Sixty-five undisturbed soil columns approximately 20 cm in height and diameter were sampled from the loamy topsoil of an agricultural field site in Silstrup (Denmark) at a sampling distance of approximately 15 m (with a few exceptions), covering an area of approximately 1 ha (60 m x 165 m). For 64 of the 65 investigated soil columns, we observed BTC shapes indicating a strong preferential transport. The strength of preferential transport was positively correlated with the bulk density and the degree of water saturation. The latter suggests that preferential macropore transport was the dominating transport process. Increased bulk densities were presumably related with a decrease in near-saturated hydraulic conductivities and as a consequence to larger water saturation and the activation of larger macropores. Our study provides further evidence that it should be possible to estimate solute transport properties from soil properties such as soil texture or bulk density. We also demonstrated that estimation approaches established for the column scale have to be upscaled when applied to the field scale or larger. Citation: Koestel, J. K., T. Norgaard, N. M. Luong, A. L. Vendelboe, P. Moldrup, N. J. Jarvis, M. Lamande, B. V. Iversen, and L. Wollesen de Jonge (2013), Links between soil properties and steady-state solute transport through cultivated topsoil at the field scale, Water Resour. Res., 49, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20079
Data-based comparison of frequency analysis methods: A general framework

An abundance of methods have been developed over the years to perform the frequency analysis (FA) of extreme environmental variables. Although numerous comparisons between these methods have been implemented, no general comparison framework has been agreed upon so far. The objective of this paper is to build the foundation of a data-based comparison framework, which aims at complementing more standard comparison schemes based on Monte Carlo simulations or statistical testing. This framework is based on the following general principles: (i) emphasis is put on the predictive ability of competing FA implementations, rather than their sole descriptive ability measured by some goodness-of-fit criterion; (ii) predictive ability is quantified by means of reliability indices, describing the consistency between validation data (not used for calibration) and FA predictions; (iii) stability is also quantified, i.e., the ability of a FA implementation to yield similar estimates when calibration data change; and (iv) the necessity to subject uncertainty estimates to the same scrutiny as point estimates is recognized, and a practical approach based on the use of the predictive distribution is proposed for this purpose. This framework is then applied to a case study involving 364 gauging stations in France, where 10 FA implementations are compared. These implementations correspond to the local, regional, and local-regional estimation of Gumbel and generalized extreme value distributions. Results show that reliability and stability indices are able to reveal marked differences between FA implementations. Moreover, the case study also confirms that using the predictive distribution to indirectly scrutinize uncertainty estimates is a viable approach, with distinct FA implementations showing marked differences in the reliability of their uncertainty estimates. The proposed comparison framework therefore constitutes a valuable tool to compare the predictive reliability of competing FA implementations, along with the reliability of their uncertainty estimates
Probabilistic flood risk assessment over large geographical regions

We develop a probabilistic model to estimate the rate of flood-induced losses for a set of properties distributed over a large geographical region (for example a portfolio of insured properties within a country). The use of detailed physically based models over large areas becomes difficult due to the vast amount of data needed and the high implementation cost. The proposed model allows one to incorporate results from such detailed models, but can be used also in regions that have not been studied in much detail. Minimal required information includes the rate and spatial extent of severe precipitation, the topography and river network from which regions at risk of flooding can be identified, and information on historical floods with an approximate delineation of the flooded area and associated aggregate losses for at least a few major events.  An application to river flood loss from residential buildings in Belgium is presented.status: publishe
Relative magnitudes of sources of uncertainty in assessing climate change impacts on water supply security for the southern Adelaide water supply system

The sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on runoff are increasingly well recognized; however, translating these uncertainties to urban water security has received less attention in the literature. Furthermore, runoff cannot be used as a surrogate for water supply security when studying the impacts of climate change due to the nonlinear transformations in modeling water supply and the effects of additional uncertainties, such as demand. Consequently, this study presents a scenario-based sensitivity analysis to qualitatively rank the relative contributions of major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on water supply security through time. This can then be used by water authorities to guide water planning and management decisions. The southern system of Adelaide, South Australia, is used to illustrate the methodology for which water supply system reliability is examined across six greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, seven general circulation models, six demand projections, and 1000 stochastic rainfall time series. Results indicate the order of the relative contributions of uncertainty changes through time; however, demand is always the greatest source of uncertainty and GHG emissions scenarios the least. In general, reliability decreases over the planning horizon, illustrating the need for additional water sources or demand mitigation, while increasing uncertainty with time suggests flexible management is required to ensure future supply security with minimum regret.F.L. Paton, H.R. Maier and G.C. Dand
Estimating the value of watershed services following forest restoration

Declining forest health, climate change, and development threaten the sustainability of water supplies in the western United States. While forest restoration may buffer threats to watershed services, funding shortfalls for landscape-scale restoration efforts limit management action. The hydrologic response and reduction in risk to watersheds following forest restoration treatments could create significant nonmarket benefits for downstream water users. Historic experimental watershed studies indicate a significant and positive response from forest thinning by a reallocation of water from evapotranspiration to surface-water yield. In this study, we estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for improved watershed services for one group of downstream users, irrigators, following forest restoration activities. We find a positive and statistically significant WTP within our sample of $183.50 per household, at an aggregated benefit of more than $400,000 annually for 2181 irrigators. Our benefit estimate provides evidence that downstream irrigators may be willing to invest in landscape-scale forest restoration to maintain watershed services
Efficient posterior exploration of a high-dimensional groundwater model from two-stage Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and polynomial chaos expansion

This study reports on two strategies for accelerating posterior inference of a highly parameterized and CPU-demanding groundwater flow model. Our method builds on previous stochastic collocation approaches, e.g., Marzouk and Xiu (2009) and Marzouk and Najm (2009), and uses generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) theory and dimensionality reduction to emulate the output of a large-scale groundwater flow model. The resulting surrogate model is CPU efficient and serves to explore the posterior distribution at a much lower computational cost using two-stage MCMC simulation. The case study reported in this paper demonstrates a two to five times speed-up in sampling efficiency.status: publishe
Capillary effect on water table fluctuations in unconfined aquifers

[1] Parlange and Brutsaert (1987) derived a modified Boussinesq equation to account for the capillary effect on water table dynamics in unconfined aquifers. Barry et al. (1996) solved this equation subject to a periodic boundary condition. Their solution shows significant influence of capillarity on water table fluctuations, which evolve to finite-amplitude standing waves at the high frequency limit. Here we propose a new governing equation for the water table, which considers both horizontal and vertical flows in an unsaturated zone of finite thickness. An approximate analytical solution for periodic water table fluctuations based on the new equation was derived. In agreement with previous results, the analytical solution shows that the unsaturated zone's storage capacity permits water table fluctuations to propagate more readily than predicted by the Boussinesq equation. Furthermore, the new solution reveals a capping effect of the unsaturated zone on both the amplitude and phase of the water table fluctuations as well as the water table overheight. Due to the finite thickness of the unsaturated zone, the capillary effect on water table fluctuations is modified mainly with reduced amplitude damping and phase shift.Full Tex
Drainage-system development in consecutive melt seasons at a polythermal, Arctic glacier, evaluated by flow-recession analysis and linear-reservoir simulation

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Wiley © American Geophysical Union under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence (CC BY). Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/  The article was published in the journal, Water Resources Research and  is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20257The drainage systems of polythermal glaciers play an important role in high latitude hydrology, and are determinants of ice flow rate. Flow-recession analysis and  linear-reservoir simulation of runoff time series are here used to evaluate seasonal  and inter-annual variability in the drainage system of the polythermal Finsterwalderbreen, Svalbard, in 1999 and 2000. Linear flow recessions are pervasive, with mean coefficients of a fast reservoir varying from 16 h (1999) to 41 h (2000), and mean coefficients of an intermittent, slow reservoir varying from 54 h (1999) to 114 h (2000). Drainage-system efficiency is greater overall in the first of the two seasons, the simplest explanation of which is more rapid depletion of the snow cover. Reservoir coefficients generally decline during each season (at 0.22 h d–1 in 1999 and 0.52 h d–1 in 2000), denoting an increase in drainage efficiency. However, coefficients do not exhibit a consistent relationship with discharge. Finsterwalderbreen therefore appears to behave as an intermediate case between temperate glaciers and other polythermal glaciers with smaller proportions of temperate ice. Linear-reservoir runoff simulations exhibit limited sensitivity to a relatively wide range of reservoir coefficients, although the use of fixed coefficients in a spatially-lumped model can generate significant sub-seasonal error. At Finsterwalderbreen, an ice-marginal channel with the characteristics of a fast reservoir, and a subglacial upwelling with the characteristics of a slow reservoir, both route meltwater to the terminus. This suggests that drainage-system components of significantly contrasting efficiencies can co-exist spatially and temporally at polythermal glaciers
Hydrological change detection using modeling: Half a century of runoff from four rivers in the Blue Nile Basin

Land cover changes can have significant impacts on hydrological regime. The objective of this study was to detect possible hydrological changes of four watersheds in the Blue Nile Basin using a model-based method for hydrological change detection. The four watersheds, Birr, Upper-Didesa, Gilgel Abbay, and Koga range in size from 260 to 1800 km2. The changes were assessed based on model parameters, model residuals, and in the overall function of the watersheds in transferring rainfall into runoff. The entire time series (1960–2004) was divided into three periods based on political and land management policy changes. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model, the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model, was used for the analysis, and suitable parameter sets for each period were found based on a Monte Carlo approach. The values of six out of nine parameters changed significantly between the periods. Model residuals also showed significant changes between the three periods in three of the four watersheds. On the other hand, the overall functioning of the watersheds in processing rainfall to runoff changed little. So even though the individual parameters and model residuals were changing, the integrated functioning of the watersheds showed minimal changes. This study demonstrated the value of using different approaches for detecting hydrological change and highlighted the sensitivity of the outcome to the applied modeling and statistical methods
Effects of oligotrophication on primary production in peri-alpine lakes

During the second half of the 20th century untreated sewage released from housing and industry into natural waters led to a degradation of many freshwater lakes and reservoirs worldwide. In order to mitigate eutrophication, wastewater treatment plants, including Fe-induced phosphorus precipitation, were implemented throughout the industrialized world, leading to reoligotrophication in many freshwater lakes. To understand and assess the effects of reoligotrophication on primary productivity, we analyzed 28 years of 14C assimilation rates, as well as other biotic and abiotic parameters, such as global radiation, nutrient concentrations and plankton densities in peri-alpine Lake Lucerne, Switzerland. Using a simple productivity-light relationship, we estimated continuous primary production and discussed the relation between productivity and observed limnological parameters. Furthermore, we assessed the uncertainty of our modeling approach based on monthly 14C assimilation measurements using Monte Carlo simulations. Results confirm that monthly sampling of productivity is sufficient for identifying long-term trends in productivity and that conservation management has successfully improved water quality during the past three decades via reducing nutrients and primary production in the lake. However, even though nutrient concentrations have remained constant in recent years, annual primary production varies significantly from year to year. Despite the fact that nutrient concentrations have decreased by more than an order of magnitude, primary production has decreased only slightly. These results suggest that primary production correlates well to nutrients availability but meteorological conditions lead to interannual variability regardless of the trophic status of the lake. Accordingly, in oligotrophic freshwaters meteorological forcing may reduce productivity impacting on the entire food chain of the ecosystem
Bedrock exfiltration as a triggering mechanism for shallow landslides

Shallow landslides pose substantial risks to people and infrastructure in mountain areas. Their occurrence is influenced by groundwater dynamics and bedrock characteristics. The bedrock may drain or contribute to groundwater in the overlying soil mass, depending on the hydraulic conductivity, degree of fracturing, saturation, and hydraulic head. Here, we present a detailed case study for a slope from Central Switzerland, where soil-bedrock interactions were responsible for triggering shallow landslides in the past. The bedrock in the study area represents a succession of heavily fissured conglomerate-sandstone beds and weathered marlstone layers, which are overlain by a clayey soil layer. There is evidence of a temporally confined aquifer in bedrock fractures from a severe storm event in August 2005. We derived a detailed geological model of the slope from electrical resistivity tomography surveys, borehole data, and bedrock outcrops. Then, the groundwater response to 32 rainfall events was monitored in the soil layer and in different bedrock layers from November 2010 to November 2011. We observed a fast and substantial rise of the hydraulic head in the bedrock, which was in contrast to the low permeability of the soil layer. The data suggest that rapid groundwater flow through bedrock fractures caused the immediate increase of the hydraulic head. Our observations document how water pressure builds up in fractured bedrock below a low permeability soil cover during heavy rainfall, which may trigger shallow landslides