pinecone/core-2020-05-10-deduplication huggingface dataset:
The changing water cycle : hydroclimatic extremes in the British Isles.

This focus article is concerned with long-term changes in hydroclimatic extremes across the British Isles. The combination of short records, poor data quality, nonstationarity, and other methodological constraints is a major obstacle to the attribution of change. Given the interaction of drivers, notably hydroclimate and land use, linking cause and effect can be difficult, especially where records are short. This focus article emphasizes the particular value of long hydrological records in seeking to understand the scale of change currently affecting British and Irish river basins. Homogeneous records of precipitation and river flow are used to explore long-term changes and to establish linkage with large-scale atmospheric drivers. Using very long records allows subtle, underlying trends to be detected within noisy records; since most records of river flow are only a few decades long, very long precipitation records are used to provide a context and evidence of century-scale monotonic trends. Analysis of flow extremes in the British Isles shows a clear linkage with indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation; relatively simply indices of weather type and atmospheric circulation provide a good level of explanation. At the longest timescales, there has been important variation in precipitation: a monotonic increase in winter, not seen in summer where interdecadal variability is the dominant pattern. With one exception, significant trends in summer are negative, including in the uplands; this unexpected result deserves further consideration across the British Isles
Bivariate return periods and their importance for flood peak and volume estimation

Estimates of flood event magnitudes with a certain return period are required for the design of hydraulic structures. While the return period is clearly defined in a univariate context, its definition is more challenging when the problem at hand requires considering the dependence between two or more variables in a multivariate framework. Several ways of defining a multivariate return period have been proposed in the literature, which all rely on different probability concepts. Definitions use the conditional probability, the joint probability, or can be based on the Kendall’s distribution or survival function. In this study, we give a comprehensive overview on the tools that are available to define a return period in a multivariate context. We especially address engineers, practitioners, and people who are new to the topic and provide them with an accessible introduction to the topic. We outline the theoretical background that is needed when one is in a multivariate setting and present the reader with different definitions for a bivariate return period. Here, we focus on flood events and the different probability concepts are explained with a pedagogical, illustrative example of a flood event characterized by the two variables peak discharge and flood volume. The choice of the return period has an important effect on the magnitude of the design variable quantiles, which is illustrated with a case study in Switzerland. However, this choice is not arbitrary and depends on the problem at hand
Deciphering long-term records of natural variability and human impact as recorded in lake sediments: a palaeolimnological puzzle

Global aquatic ecosystems are under increasing threat from anthropogenic activity, as well as being exposed to past (and projected) climate change, however, the nature of how climate and human impacts are recorded in lake sediments is often ambiguous. Natural and anthropogenic drivers can force a similar response in lake systems, yet the ability to attribute what change recorded in lake sediments is natural, from that which is anthropogenic, is increasingly important for understanding how lake systems have, and will continue to function when subjected to multiple stressors; an issue that is particularly acute when considering management options for aquatic ecosystems. The duration and timing of human impacts on lake systems varies geographically, with some regions of the world (such as Africa and South America) having a longer legacy of human impact than others (e.g., New Zealand). A wide array of techniques (biological, chemical, physical and statistical) is available to palaeolimnologists to allow the deciphering of complex sedimentary records. Lake sediments are an important archive of how drivers have changed through time, and how these impacts manifest in lake systems. With a paucity of ‘real-time’ data pre-dating human impact, palaeolimnological archives offer the only insight into both natural variability (i.e., that driven by climate and intrinsic lake processes) and the impact of people. While there is a need to acknowledge complexity, and temporal and spatial variability when deciphering change from sediment archives, a palaeolimnological approach is a powerful tool for better understanding and managing global aquatic resources.\ud
\ud
For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website
Citizen science for hydrological risk reduction and resilience building

In disaster risk management (DRM), an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments toward more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Arguably, nonscientist local stakeholders have always played an important role in knowledge risk management and resilience building within a hydrological context, such as flood response and drought alleviation. However, rapidly developing information and communication technologies such as the Internet, smartphones, and social media have already demonstrated their sizeable potential to make knowledge creation more multidirectional, decentralized, diverse, and inclusive. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a ‘citizen science’ approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for risk management. Such projects work best when there is community buy-in, when their purpose(s) are clearly defined at the outset, and when the motivations and skillsets of all participants and stakeholders are well understood. They have great potential to enhance knowledge creation, not only for data collection, but also for analysis or interpretation. In addition, they can serve as a means of educating and empowering communities and stakeholders that are bypassed by more traditional knowledge generation processes. Here, we review the state-of-the-art of citizen science within the context of hydrological risk reduction and resilience building. Particularly when embedded within a polycentric approach toward risk governance, we argue that citizen science could complement more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhance innovation, adaptation, multidirectional information provision, risk management, and local resilience building
Streams of data from drops of water: 21st century molecular microbial ecology

Microorganisms are ubiquitous and represent a taxonomically and functionally diverse component of freshwater environments of significant ecological importance. The bacteria, archaea, and microbial eukarya in freshwater systems support a range of ecosystem processes and functions, including mediating all major biogeochemical cycles, and therefore regulate the flow of multiple ecosystem services. Yet relative to conspicuous higher taxa, microbial ecology remains poorly understood. As the anthropocene progresses, the demand for freshwater–ecosystem services is both increasing with growing human population density, and by association, increasingly threatened from multiple and often interacting stressors, such as climate change, eutrophication, and chemical pollution. Thus, it is imperative to understand the ecology of microorganisms and their functional role in freshwater ecosystems if we are to manage the future of these environments effectively. To do this, researchers have developed a vast array of molecular tools that can illuminate the diversity, composition, and activity of microbial communities. Within this primer, we discuss the history of molecular approaches in microbial ecology, and highlight the scope of questions that these methods enable researchers to address. Using some recent case studies, we describe some exemplar research into the microbial ecology of freshwater systems, and emphasize how molecular methods can provide novel ecological insights. Finally, we detail some promising developments within this research field, and how these might shape the future research landscape of freshwater microbial ecology
Interpreting historical, botanical, and geological evidence to aid preparations for future floods

River flooding is among the most destructive of natural hazards globally, causing widespread loss of life, damage to infrastructure and economic deprivation. Societies are currently under increasing threat from such floods, predominantly from increasing exposure of people and assets in flood-prone areas, but also as a result\ud
of changes in flood magnitude, frequency, and timing. Accurate flood hazard and risk assessment are therefore crucial for the sustainable development of societies worldwide. With a paucity of hydrological measurements, evidence from the field offers the only insight into truly extreme events and their variability in space and time. Historical, botanical, and geological archives have increasingly been recognized as valuable sources of extreme flood event information. These different archives are here reviewed with a particular focus on the recording mechanisms of\ud
flood information, the historical development of the methodological approaches and the type of information that those archives can provide. These studies provide a wealthy dataset of hundreds of historical and palaeoflood series, whose analysis reveals a noticeable dominance of records in Europe. After describing the diversity of flood information provided by this dataset, we identify how these records have improved and could further improve flood hazard assessments and, thereby, flood management and mitigation plans
Sequestration through forestry and agriculture

Current climate mitigation policies have not fully resolved contentious issues regarding the inclusion of carbon sequestration through changes in forestry and agricultural management practices. Terrestrial carbon sinks could be a low-cost mitigation option that fosters conservation and development, yet issues related to accurately documenting the amount of carbon sequestered undermine confidence that emission offsets through sequestration are equivalent to emission reductions.\ud
From an atmospheric perspective, net of CO2 removals through sequestration are equivalent to emission reductions over a given period of time. But carbon will not remain sequestered in biomass or soils indefinitely and investments in sequestration could stifle investments in reducing emissions from other sources.\ud
Many international climate agreements cap emissions from some countries or sectors but enable participation of uncapped countries or sectors for forestry and agricultural sequestration. This structure can prompt emission increases in parts of the uncapped entities that weaken the value of emission reductions earned through sequestration. This has been a minor issue under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. Reduced emissions through deforestation and degradation is susceptible to the same problems. The purpose of this article is to review the science, politics, and policy that form the basis of arguments for and against the inclusion forestry and agricultural sequestration as a component of current and future international climate mitigation policies
Climate Change in Literature and Literary Criticism

This article provides an overview of climate change in literature, focusing on the representation of climate change in Anglophone fiction. It then evaluates the way in which these fictional representations are critiqued in literary studies, and considers the extent to which the methods and tools that are currently employed are adequate to this new critical task. We explore how the complexity of climate change as both scientific and cultural phenomenon demands a corresponding degree of complexity in fictional representation. For example, when authors represent climate change as a global, networked, and controversial phenomenon, they move beyond simply employing the environment as a setting and begin to explore its impact on plot and character, producing unconventional narrative trajectories and innovations in characterization. Then, such creative complexity asks of literary scholars a reassessment of methods and approaches. For one thing, it may require a shift in emphasis from literary fiction to genre fiction. It also particularly demands that environmental criticism, or ecocriticism, moves beyond its long-standing interest in concepts of 'nature' and 'place', to embrace a new understanding of the local in relation to the global. We suggest, too, that there are synergies to be forged between these revisionary moves in ecocriticism and developments in literary critical theory and historicism, as these critical modes begin to deal with climate change and reimagine themselves in turn. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Media(ted) discourses and climate change : a focus on political subjectivity and (dis)engagement

Research has shown that the media are the main source of information and the main factor shaping people’s awareness and concern in relation to climate change and therefore have an important role in setting the public agenda. As a key forum for the production, reproduction and transformation of the meaning of public issues, the media influence understandings of risks, responsibilities, as well as of the functioning of democratic politics. This article argues that the media also matter to citizens’ perception of their (potential) political agency or their political subjectivity. Media representations construct particular ‘subject positions’ for individuals and cultivate dispositions to action or inaction. The article discusses the importance of citizens’ political engagement with climate change and points out some aspects of media(ted) discourses that may constrain the perceived possibilities of participation in the politics of climate change. While engagement with climate change has multiple dimensions and a number of barriers have been identified through empirical studies, this article offers a critique of the role of the media in political engagement with the problem and suggests avenues for future research.The author is grateful to the Portuguese Funda A, o para a CiIncia e a Tecnologia for funding the project 'The Politics of Climate Change: Discourses and Representations' (POCI/COM56973/2004), to Jan Zienkowski for relevant comments on this paper, and to the reviewers who provided detailed feedback
Climate change and visual imagery

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.O'Neill, S. J. and Smith, N. (2014), Climate change and visual imagery. WIREs Clim Change, 5: 73–87. doi: 10.1002/wcc.249 The definitive version is available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.249/abstractMany actors—including scientists, journalists, artists, and campaigning organizations—create visualizations of climate change. In doing so, they evoke climate change in particular ways, and make the issue meaningful in everyday discourse. While a diversity of climate change imagery exists, particular types of climate imagery appear to have gained dominance, promoting particular ways of knowing about climate change (and marginalizing others). This imagery, and public engagement with this imagery, helps to shape the cultural politics of climate change in important ways. This article critically reviews the nascent research area of the visual representations of climate change, and public engagement with visual imagery. It synthesizes a diverse body of research to explore visual representations and engagement across the news media, NGO communications, advertising, and marketing, climate science, art, and virtual reality systems. The discussion brings together three themes which occur throughout the review: time, truth, and power. The article concludes by suggesting fruitful directions for future research in the visual communication of climate change.ESR
Climate change research and policy in Portugal

This article offers a review of research and policy on climate change in Portugal
and is organized into three main themes: scientific knowledge and assessment of
climate change; policy analysis and evaluation; and public engagement. Modern
scientific research on meteorology and climatology started in Portugal in the 1950s
and a strong community of researchers in climate science, vulnerabilities, impacts,
and adaptation has since developed, particularly in the last decade. Nevertheless,
there are still many gaps in research, especially regarding the economic costs of
climate change in Portugal and costs and benefits of adaptation. Governmental
policies with a strong emphasis on mitigation were introduced at the end of the
1990s. As greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise beyond its Kyoto target
for 2012, the country had to resort to the Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in order
to comply. Climate change adaptation policies were introduced in 2010 but are
far from being fully implemented. Regarding public engagement with climate
change, high levels of concern contrast with limited understanding and rather
weak behavioral dispositions to address climate change. Citizens display a heavy
reliance on the media as sources of information, which are dominated by a
techno-managerial discourse mainly focused on the global level. The final part of
the article identifies research gaps and outlines a research agenda. Connections
between policy and research are also discussedCOMPETE: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-00756
Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities

Global change drivers are known to interact in their effects on biodiversity, but much research to date ignores this complexity. As a consequence, there are problems in the attribution of biodiversity change to different drivers and, therefore, our ability to manage habitats and landscapes appropriately.  Few studies explicitly acknowledge and account for interactive (i.e. non-additive) effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity. One reason is that the mechanisms by which drivers interact are poorly understood. We evaluate such mechanisms, including interactions between demographic parameters, evolutionary trade-offs and synergies and threshold effects of population size and patch occupancy on population persistence. Other reasons for the lack of appropriate research are limited data availability and analytical issues in addressing interaction effects. We highlight the influence that attribution errors can have on biodiversity projections and discuss experimental designs and analytical tools suited to this challenge. Finally, we summarise the risks and opportunities provided by the existence of interaction effects. Risks include ineffective conservation management; but opportunities also arise, whereby the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be reduced through appropriate land management as an adaptation measure. We hope that increasing the understanding of key mechanisms underlying interaction effects and discussing appropriate experimental and analytical designs for attribution will help researchers, policy makers and conservation practitioners to better minimise risks and exploit opportunities provided by land use-climate change interactions
Perceptions of time in relation to climate change

Time is at the heart of understanding climate change, from the perspective of both natural and social scientists. This article selectively reviews research on time perception and temporal aspects of decision making in sociology and psychology. First we briefly describe the temporal dimensions that characterize the issue of climate change. Second, we review relevant theoretical approaches and empirical findings. Then we propose an integration of these insights for the problem of climate change and discuss mismatches between the human mind, surrounding social dynamics, and climate change. Finally, we discuss the implications of this article for understanding and responding to climate change, and make suggestions on how we can use the strengths of the human mind and social dynamics to communicate climate change in its temporal context. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Climate geoengineering: issues of path-dependence and socio-technical lock-in

As academic and policy interest in climate geoengineering grows, the potential irreversibility of technological developments in this domain has been raised as a pressing concern. The literature on socio-technical lock-in and path dependence is illuminating in helping to situate current concerns about climate geoengineering and irreversibility in the context of academic understandings of historical socio-technical development and persistence. This literature provides a wealth of material illustrating the pervasiveness of positive feedbacks of various types (from the discursive to the material) leading to complex socio-technical entanglements which may resist change and become inflexible even in the light of evidence of negative impacts. With regard to climate geoengineering, there are concerns that geoengineering technologies might contribute so-called ‘carbon lock-in’, or become irreversibly ‘locked-in’ themselves. In particular, the scale of infrastructures that geoengineering interventions would require, and the issue of the so-called ‘termination effect’ have been discussed in these terms. Despite the emergent and somewhat ill-defined nature of the field, some authors also suggest that the extant framings of geoengineering in academic and policy literatures may already demonstrate features recognizable as forms of cognitive lock-in, likely to have profound implications for future developments in this area. While the concepts of path-dependence and lock-in are the subject of ongoing academic critique, by drawing analytical attention to these pervasive processes of positive feedback and entanglement, this literature is highly relevant to current debates around geoengineering
Climate change and International River Boundaries: fixed points in shifting sands

The impacts of climate change will have far reaching consequences for transboundary water resources, particularly through the effects of changing frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as floods and their impacts on river channel systems. Watercourses have been used as boundaries throughout history for a variety of reasons, and as both a natural resource and political structure, they present a number of unique challenges. Despite academic studies looking broadly at the effects of changes in runoff on river ecosystems and their resources, less attention has been paid to the socio-political interactions and consequences for river functionality, in particular, as a boundary. We review the historical and legal role of International River Boundaries highlighting the paradox that exists between the stability needed for a boundary and the dynamism of fluvial landscapes in a changing climate. We draw attention to the fact that geopolitical concerns exist at other unstable border situations, such as ice-covered boundaries and lakes. We examine the knowledge gaps that exist in relation to understanding the physical impacts of climate change on terrestrial earth systems. We present an exploratory analysis of physical and political risk in Southern Africa that highlights two cases of potential risk. The paper ends with a discussion of actions to address the physical and social dimensions of this strategic issue