pinecone/core-2020-05-10-deduplication huggingface dataset:
Predicting Daily Probability Distributions Of S&P500 Returns

Most approaches in forecasting merely try to predict the next value of the time series.
In contrast, this paper presents a framework to predict the full probability distribution. It
is expressed as a mixture model: the dynamics of the individual states is modeled with so-called
"experts" (potentially nonlinear neural networks), and the dynamics between the states is modeled
using a hidden Markov approach. The full density predictions are obtained by a weighted superposition
of the individual densities of each expert. This model class is called "hidden Markov experts".
Results are presented for daily S&P500 data. While the predictive accuracy of the mean does
not improve over simpler models, evaluating the prediction of the full density shows a clear out-of-sample
improvement both over a simple GARCH(1,l) model (which assumes Gaussian distributed
returns) and over a "gated experts" model (which expresses the weighting for each state non-recursively
as a function of external inputs). Several interpretations are given: the blending of
supervised and unsupervised learning, the discovery of hidden states, the combination of forecasts,
the specialization of experts, the removal of outliers, and the persistence of volatility.Information Systems Working Papers Serie
Cost and productivity

We develop an analytical model capable of decomposing both intertemporal and multilateral cost variation. We begin by attributing cost variation to a price effect and a quantity effect. We then decompose the quantity effect into a productivity effect and an activity effect. The productivity effect in turn decomposes into a cost efficiency effect and, in the intertemporal context, a technical change effect. We also show how the intertemporal and multilateral cost decompositions can be implemented, using linear programming techniques. These techniques offer certain advantages over conventional econometric techniques whenever a substantial portion of cost variation is due to variation in cost efficiency. We illustrate the two cost decompositions with a pair of benchmarking exercises based on a panel of 93 US electric power generating companies, in which variation in cost efficiency does play a key role
"In Situ" enzymatically prepared polymers for wool coloration

Phenolic compounds such as hydroquinone, catechol and ferulic acid can polymerise and therefore develop deep colours when treated with peroxidase and laccase enzymes. We have attempted to apply this phenomenon for wool dyeing. Wool was padded with phenolic compounds and deep colours were developed by enzymatic treatment in buffer solutions. Mordant with chromium compounds or heating under the conditions of acid catalysis was available for fixation of these coloured compounds on the wool fibres.Enzymatically dyed wool samples.[GRAPHICS
Molecular basis of phospholipase A2 inhibition by petrosaspongiolide M.

Petrosaspongiolide M (PM) is an anti-inflammatory marine metabolite that displays a potent inhibitory activity toward group II and III secretory phospholipase A2 (PLA2) enzymes. The details of the mechanism, which leads to a covalent adduct between PLA2 and γ-hydroxybutenolide-containing molecules such as PM, are still a matter of debate. In this paper the covalent binding of PM to bee venom PLA2 has been investigated by mass spectrometry and molecular modeling. The mass increment observed for the PM-PLA2 adduct is consistent with the formation of a Schiff base by reaction of a PLA2 amino group with the hemiacetal function (masked aldehyde) at the C-25 atom of the PM γ-hydroxybutenolide ring. Proteolysis of the modified PLA2 by the endoprotease LysC followed by HPLC MS analysis allowed us to establish that the PLA2 α-amino terminal group of the lle-1 residue was the only covalent binding site for PM. The stoichiometry of the reaction between PM and PLA2 was also monitored and results showed that even with excess inhibitor, the prevalent product is a 1:1 (inhibitor:enzyme) adduct, although a 2:1 adduct is present as a minor component. The 2:1 adduct was also characterized, which showed that the second site of reaction is located at the ε-amino group of the Lys-85 residue. Similar results in terms of the reaction profile, mass increments, and location of the PLA2 binding site were obtained for manoalide, a paradigm for irreversible PLA2 inhibitors, which suggests that the present results may be considered of more general interest within the field of anti-inflammatory sesterterpenes that contain the γ-hydroxybutenolide pharmacophore. Finally, a 3D model, constrained by the above experimental results, was obtained by docking the inhibitor molecule into the PLA2 binding site through AFFINITY calculations. The model provides an interesting insight into the PM-PLA2 inhibition process and may prove useful in the design of new anti-inflammatory agents that target PLA2 secretory enzymes
N,N-dialkylaniline-substituted tetraethynylethenes: A new class of chromophores possessing an emitting charge-transfer state. Experimental and computational studies

The photophysical properties of N,N-dimethylaniline- (DMA) substituted tetraethynylethene (TEE; 3,4-diethynylhex-3-ene-1,5-diyne) and related derivatives were investigated in a joint experimental and computational study. Measurements of the electronic emission spectra showed that these novel chromophores display a dual fluorescence which strongly depends on solvent polarity. Computational studies suggest that the twisted intramolecular charge-transfer state (TICT) model offers a possible explanation for the experimentally observed dual fluorescence. Time-dependent density functional calculations revealed that the initial excited state reached upon photoirradiation relaxes to a lower-energy TICT state in which either the dimethylamino group is twisted into an orthogonal position with respect to the remaining planar arylated TEE moiety or the entire DMA donor group takes an orthogonal orientation with respect to the rigid, planar TEE acceptor moiety. For the compounds investigated, the charge-transfer state responsible for the strongly solvent-dependent luminescence is directly connected with the initial excited state, namely, no crossing of states is involved
Pre-operative traction for hip fractures in adults

For people with hip fractures, traction involves either using tapes (skin traction) or pins (skeletal traction) attached to the injured leg and connected to weights via a pulley. The application of traction before surgery is thought to relieve pain and make the subsequent surgery easier. Where traction is not used, the injured limb is usually placed on a pillow and the patient encouraged to adopt a position of greatest comfort.\ud
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This review summarising the evidence from randomised controlled trials included 11 trials with 1654 participants. Consistent with the general hip fracture population, most of the trial participants were older persons of around 80 years of age and the majority were female. Ten trials compared traction versus no traction and two trials, including one of the preceding 10 trials, compared skin and skeletal traction. As well as limitations in the trial methods, there were very limited data for pooling and a lack of information about the longer-term consequences of applying or not applying traction. Nonetheless, the evidence from the 10 trials consistently showed no evidence to support the supposed advantages of traction described above. There were inconclusive data for pressures sores (skin ulcers) and other complications. One trial reported three adverse effects (sensory disturbance and skin blisters) related to skin traction; all were minor
Training health professionals in smoking cessation

Contains fulltext :
                  110023.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is one of the leading causes of preventable death world wide. There is good evidence that brief interventions from health professionals can increase smoking cessation attempts. A number of trials have examined whether skills training for health professionals can lead them to have greater success in helping their patients who smoke. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of training health care professionals in the delivery of smoking cessation interventions to their patients, and to assess the additional effects of training characteristics such as intervention content, delivery method and intensity. SEARCH METHODS: The Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group's Specialised Register, electronic databases and the bibliographies of identified studies were searched and raw data was requested from study authors where needed. Searches were updated in March 2012. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized trials in which the intervention was training of health care professionals in smoking cessation. Trials were considered if they reported outcomes for patient smoking at least six months after the intervention. Process outcomes needed to be reported, however trials that reported effects only on process outcomes and not smoking behaviour were excluded. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Information relating to the characteristics of each included study for interventions, participants, outcomes and methods were extracted by two independent reviewers. Studies were combined in a meta-analysis where possible and reported in narrative synthesis in text and table. MAIN RESULTS: Of seventeen included studies, thirteen found no evidence of an effect for continuous smoking abstinence following the intervention. Meta-analysis of 14 studies for point prevalence of smoking produced a statistically and clinically significant effect in favour of the intervention (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.55, p= 0.004). Meta-analysis of eight studies that reported continuous abstinence was also statistically significant (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.03, p= 0.03).Healthcare professionals who had received training were more likely to perform tasks of smoking cessation than untrained controls, including: asking patients to set a quit date (p< 0.0001), make follow-up appointments (p< 0.00001), counselling of smokers (p< 0.00001), provision of self-help material (p< 0.0001) and prescription of a quit date (p< 0.00001). No evidence of an effect was observed for the provision of nicotine gum/replacement therapy. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Training health professionals to provide smoking cessation interventions had a measurable effect on the point prevalence of smoking, continuous abstinence and professional performance. The one exception was the provision of nicotine gum or replacement therapy, which did not differ between groups
Cervical insemination versus intra-uterine insemination of donor sperm for subfertility.

Contains fulltext :
                  69851.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Insemination with donor sperm is an option for couples for whom in vitro fertilisation (IVF) or intra-cytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) has been unsuccessful, couples with azoospermia and for single women or same sex couples.Insemination of sperm can be done via cervical (CI) or intra-uterine (IUI) routes. IUI has been considered potentially more effective than CI as the sperm bypasses the cervical mucus and is deposited closer to the fallopian tubes. The cost and risks of IUI may be higher because of the need for sperm preparation and the introduction of foreign material into the uterus.Donor sperm used for artificial insemination is mainly cryopreserved, due to concerns about HIV transmission. However, cycle fecundity is higher for fresh sperm. Insemination is often combined with ovulatory stimulation, with either clomiphene or gonadotrophin. There may be risks associated with these therapies, such as higher multiple pregnancy rates. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether pregnancy outcomes are improved using intra-uterine insemination in comparison to cervical insemination in women undergoing artificial insemination with donor sperm. SEARCH STRATEGY: The following databases were searched: the Cochrane Menstrual Disorders and Subfertility Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library) , MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and the reference lists of articles retrieved. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials comparing IUI with CI were included. Crossover studies were included if pre-crossover data was available. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Study quality assessment and data extraction were carried out independently by two review authors (DB, JM). Authors of studies that potentially met the inclusion criteria were contacted, where possible if additional information was needed. MAIN RESULTS: The search strategy found 232 articles. Fifteen studies potentially met the inclusion criteria. Four studies were included in this review. All the included studies used cryopreserved sperm in stimulated cycles. In two studies 134 women had gonadotrophin-stimulated cycles and in two studies 74 women had clomiphene-stimulated cycles. The evidence showed that IUI after 6 cycles significantly improved live birth rates (odds ratio (OR) 1.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02 to 3.86) and pregnancy rates (OR 3.37, 95% CI 1.90 to 5.96) in comparison to cervical insemination. There was no statistically significant evidence of an effect on multiple pregnancies (OR 2.19, 95% CI 0.79 to 6.07) or miscarriages (relative risk (RR) 3.92, 95% CI 0.85 to 17.96). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this systematic review support the use of IUI rather than CI in stimulated cycles using cryopreserved sperm for donor insemination
Interventions for preventing and treating stress fractures and stress reactions of bone of the lower limbs in young adults

Background: Stress reaction in bone, which may proceed to a fracture, is a significant problem in military recruits and in athletes, particularly long distance runners.\ud
Objectives: To evaluate the evidence from randomised controlled trials of interventions for prevention or management of lower-limb stress fractures and stress reactions of bone in active young adults.\ud
Search strategy: We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register (April 2004), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library Issue 1, 2004), MEDLINE (1966 to September week 1, 2004), EMBASE, CINAHL, Index\ud
to UK Theses, reference lists of relevant articles and contacted trialists.\ud
Selection criteria: Any randomised or quasi-randomised trials evaluating interventions for preventing or treating lower limb stress reactions of bone or stress fractures in active young adults.\ud
Data collection and analysis: We independently selected trials for inclusion, assessed trial quality and extracted data. Only limited data pooling was undertaken.\ud
Main results: We included 16 trials. All 13 prevention trials involved military recruits undergoing training. Participants of two of the three treatment trials were military personnel. Ten prevention trials tested the effects of various foot inserts and other footwear modifications. While pooling of data was not possible, the four trials evaluating the use of “shock-absorbing” boot inserts versus control found fewer stress injuries of the bone in their\ud
intervention groups. However, the only trial showing a significant benefit lacked important information about trial design. A key issue\ud
in several trials was the acceptability, in terms of practicality and comfort, of the boot inserts. Two cluster-randomised prevention trials\ud
found no significant effect of leg muscle stretching during warm up before exercise.\ud
Pooled data from three small but very different trials testing the use of pneumatic braces in the rehabilitation of tibial stress fractures\ud
showed a significant reduction in the time to recommencing full activity (weighted mean difference -33.39 days, 95% confidence\ud
interval -44.18 to -22.59 days). These results were highly heterogeneous (I squared = 90%), which is likely to reflect the underlying\ud
differences of the trials, including differences in the control group interventions and definitions of outcomes.\ud
Authors’ conclusions: The use of shock absorbing inserts in footwear probably reduces the incidence of stress fractures in military personnel. There is insufficient evidence to determine the best design of such inserts but comfort and tolerability should be considered.\ud
Rehabilitation after tibial stress fracture may be aided by the use of pneumatic bracing but more evidence is required to confirm this
Osteotomy, compression and other modifications of surgical techniques for internal fixation of extracapsular hip fractures

Background: Many different surgical techniques have been described for the internal fixation of extracapsular hip fractures. Objectives: To compare different aspects of surgical technique used in operations for internal fixation of extracapsular hip fractures in adults. Search strategy: We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register (January 2008), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library 2008, Issue 1), MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Current Controlled Trials, orthopaedic journals, conference proceedings and reference lists of articles. Date of last search was January 2008. No language restriction was applied. Selection criteria: All randomised and quasi-randomised trials investigating operative techniques used in operations for the treatment of extracapsular hip fractures in adults. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently selected trials, assessed trial quality and extracted data. Wherever appropriate, data were pooled. Main results: Predominantly older people with trochanteric fractures were treated in the 11 included trials. One trial (65 participants undergoing fixation with a fixed nail-plate) found no statistically significant differences between osteotomy versus anatomical reduction. Four trials, involving 465 participants undergoing fixation with a sliding hip screw (SHS), compared osteotomy versus anatomical reduction. Osteotomy was associated with an increased operative blood loss and length of surgery. There were no statistically significant differences for mortality, morbidity or measures of anatomical deformity. Two trials (138 participants) compared SHS fixation of a trochanteric hip fracture augmented with cement against a standard fixation. There were no reoperations even for the four cases of fixation failure in the cement group. The cement group had significantly better quality of life scores at six months. One trial (200 participants) comparing compression versus no compression of a trochanteric fracture in conjunctionwith SHS fixation found no significant differences between the two groups. One trial (120 participants) found a tendency to improved outcomes with a hydroxyapatite coated lag screw, but none reached statistical significance. One trial (19 participants) reported reduced temperatures when using a modified reaming method. Another trial (50 participants) found reduced bone marrow intravascular embolism, detected by oesophageal ultrasound, when a Gamma nail was inserted with a distal pressure venting hole in the femur. Authors' conclusions: There is inadequate evidence to support the use of osteotomy for internal fixation of a trochanteric hip fracture. Similarly, there is insufficient evidence to support the use of the other techniques examined in the trials included in this review
Interventions for isolated diaphyseal fractures of the ulna in adults

Background: Isolated fractures of the shaft of the ulna, which are often sustained when the forearm is raised to shield against a blow, are generally treated on an outpatient basis.\ud
Objectives: To assess the effects of various forms of treatment for isolated fractures of the ulnar shaft in adults.\ud
Search strategy: The authors searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register (December 2008), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library 2008, Issue 4), MEDLINE (1966 to November week 3 2008), EMBASE (1981 to week 52 2008), CINAHL (1982 to December week 2 2008), various trial registers, various conference proceedings and bibliographies of relevant articles.\ud
Selection criteria: Randomised or quasi-randomised trials of conservative and surgical treatment of isolated fractures of the ulnar shaft in adults. Excluded were fractures of the proximal ulna and Monteggia fracture dislocations.\ud
Data collection and analysis: The authors performed independent assessment of risk of bias and data extraction. They contacted trialists for more information. There was no pooling of data.\ud
Main results: Four trials, involving a total of 237 participants, were included. All four trials were methodologically flawed and potentially biased.\ud
Three trials tested conservative treatment interventions. One trial, which compared short arm (below elbow) pre-fabricated functional braces with long arm (elbow included) plaster casts, found there was no significant difference in the time it took for fracture union. Patient satisfaction and return to work during treatment were significantly better in the brace group. The other two trials, both quasi-randomised, had three treatment groups. One trial compared Ace Wrap elastic bandage versus short arm plaster cast versus long arm plaster cast. The large loss to follow-up in this trial makes any data analysis tentative. However, the need for replacement of the Ace wrap by other methods due to pain indicates the potential for a serious problem with this intervention. The other trial, which compared immediate mobilisation versus short arm plaster cast versus long arm plaster cast for minimally displaced fractures, found no significant differences in outcome between these three interventions.\ud
The fourth trial, which compared two types of plates for surgical fixation, found no significant differences in functional or anatomical outcomes nor complications between the two groups.\ud
Authors' conclusions: There is insufficient evidence from randomised trials to determine which method of treatment is the most appropriate for isolated fractures of the ulnar shaft in adults. Well designed and reported randomised trials of current forms of conservative treatment are recommended
Interventions to change the behaviour of health professionals and the organisation of care to promote weight reduction in children and adults with overweight or obesity.

Background\ud
The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing globally, an increase which has major implications for both population health\ud
and costs to health services. This is an update of a Cochrane Review.\ud
Objectives\ud
To assess the effects of strategies to change the behaviour of health professionals or the organisation of care compared to standard care,\ud
to promote weight reduction in children and adults with overweight or obesity.\ud
Search methods\ud
We searched the following databases for primary studies up to September 2016: CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, DARE\ud
and PsycINFO. We searched the reference lists of included studies and two trial registries.\ud
Selection criteria\ud
We considered randomised trials that compared routine provision of care with interventions aimed either at changing the behaviour of\ud
healthcare professionals or the organisation of care to promote weight reduction in children and adults with overweight or obesity.\ud
Data collection and analysis\ud
We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane when conducting this review. We report the results for the\ud
professional interventions and the organisational interventions in seven ’Summary of findings’ tables.\ud
Main results\ud
We identified 12 studies for inclusion in this review, seven of which evaluated interventions targeting healthcare professional and five\ud
targeting the organisation of care. Eight studies recruited adults with overweight or obesity and four recruited children with obesity.\ud
Eight studies had an overall high risk of bias, and four had a low risk of bias. In total, 139 practices provided care to 89,754 people,\ud
with a median follow-up of 12 months