Thomas Bayes, "An essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances." Bayes's essay in the original notation. Thomas Bayes, 1763, "An essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances." Bayes's essay as published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Vol. 53, p. 370, on Google Books. Thomas Bayes, 1763, "A letter to John Canton," 53: 269–71.