Germanyâs preliminary coalition talks collapse
Mrs Merkel
What now? Mrs Merkel will meet with Frank-Walter Steinmeier  Germanyâs federal president  this morning to discuss next steps. Four possible outcomes present themselves. The FDP might be coaxed back to the negotiating table by plausible concessions from the CDU  CSU and Greens. But do not count on it. Mr Lindnerâs language was ominously final. And the Greens (seemingly the main target of FDP recrimination) declared that they had reached their âpain thresholdâ and could not budge another centimetre.
The second possibility is a new âgrand coalitionâ marrying the CDU/CSU and the centre-left Social Democrats (SDP)  who together have a workable majority in the Bundestag. But the SPD has strenuously ruled out the option. Having lost distinctiveness and votes in partnership with  Mrs Merkel    its  leaders and activists fear another spin with the chancellor could do their party terminal damage. Perhaps  just perhaps   Mrs Merkel   the media and Germanyâs European partners can persuade them to take the risk. But months after its worst election result in post-war German history  the SPD will most probably reject the overtures.
In the absence of a viable majority government   Mrs Merkel  could form a minority one  concocting vote-by-vote majorities in the Bundestag. This might combine the CDU/CSU with the FDP  its traditional governing partner (together they would be 29 seats short of a majority). But a more natural fit would now be a black-green coalition with the Greens (42 seats short of a majority). Last night each side found generous words for the other  and they were as one in their contempt for the FDP. At federal level post-war Germany has witnessed no minority administrations  though one ran North-Rhine Westphalia  the countryâs largest state  from 2010 to 2012. Such governments are alien both to the stable  long-termist ways of the German state and to  Mrs Merkelâs  plodding leadership style. How long one would even last in the current circumstances is unclear.
That leaves the fourth  most drastic option: new elections. The route is not as simple as it sounds. Unlike some other European parliaments  the Bundestag cannot just dissolve itself (a legacy of Weimar-era instability) and as  Mrs Merkel  has not yet been reinstalled as chancellor  she  cannot call a straight confidence vote. Instead Mr Steinmeier must nominate a candidate for the job. If  Mrs Merkel  (for  it  would be  she ) failed to win an absolute majority in two successive Bundestag votes  which can be separated by two weeks   she  would go to a third vote at which a simple majority would suffice. Only then could Mr Steinmeier dissolve the Bundestag  triggering a new election within 60 days.
If possible  Germanyâs establishmentâincluding  Mrs Merkel  and Mr Steinmeierâwill seek to avoid new elections. These could most benefit the far-right Alternative for Germany and would not necessarily rupture the deadlock  current polls putting the main parties very close to the results they obtained at the September election. In  her  comments last night  Mrs Merkel  emphasised that  her  party would âtake responsibility for this country  even in difficult timesâ.  She  is determined  in other words  to make the best of the hand the German people dealt  her  in September. Precisely how  she  plans to proceed should become clearer today.
In recent years Germany has been a pillar of stable government in Europe and  Mrs Merkel  a seemingly permanent feature of the landscape (consider that  her  international counterparts when  she  first took office were Jacques Chirac  Tony Blair and George W. Bush). Both of those truths are now  if not dead  then slipping away. The next German government will take months more to emerge and will be distinctly fragile in comparison with its predecessors. The end of the Merkel era has surely begun  though whether it has weeks  months or a short number of years to run is anyoneâs guess. Last nightâs events confirmed Emmanuel Macron as Europeâs top leader while making the French presidentâs grand plans for euro-zone reformâfor which he needs a confident and outward-looking Germanyâyet harder to achieve. The ripples of Mr Lindnerâs doubtful decision will travel far beyond his countryâs borders.
What now?  [TGT]  will meet with Frank-Walter Steinmeier  Germanyâs federal president  this morning to discuss next steps. Four possible outcomes present themselves. The FDP might be coaxed back to the negotiating table by plausible concessions from the CDU  CSU and Greens. But do not count on it. Mr Lindnerâs language was ominously final. And the Greens (seemingly the main target of FDP recrimination) declared that they had reached their âpain thresholdâ and could not budge another centimetre.
The second possibility is a new âgrand coalitionâ marrying the CDU/CSU and the centre-left Social Democrats (SDP)  who together have a workable majority in the Bundestag. But the SPD has strenuously ruled out the option. Having lost distinctiveness and votes in partnership with   [TGT]      [TGT]   leaders and activists fear another spin with  [TGT]  could do their party terminal damage. Perhaps  just perhaps    [TGT]    the media and Germanyâs European partners can persuade  [TGT]  to take the risk. But months after  [TGT]  worst election result in post-war German history  the SPD will most probably reject the overtures.
In the absence of a viable majority government   Mrs Merkel  could form a minority one  concocting vote-by-vote majorities in the Bundestag. This might combine the CDU/CSU with the FDP  its traditional governing partner (together they would be 29 seats short of a majority). But a more natural fit would now be a black-green coalition with the Greens (42 seats short of a majority). Last night each side found generous words for the other  and they were as one in their contempt for the FDP. At federal level post-war Germany has witnessed no minority administrations  though one ran North-Rhine Westphalia  the countryâs largest state  from 2010 to 2012. Such governments are alien both to the stable  long-termist ways of the German state and to  Mrs Merkelâs  plodding leadership style. How long one would even last in the current circumstances is unclear.
That leaves the fourth  most drastic option: new elections. The route is not as simple as it sounds. Unlike some other European parliaments  the Bundestag cannot just dissolve itself (a legacy of Weimar-era instability) and as   [TGT] has not yet been reinstalled as chancellor   [TGT]   cannot call a straight confidence vote. Instead Mr Steinmeier must nominate a candidate for the job. If  [TGT] (for   [TGT]   would be   [TGT]  ) failed to win an absolute majority in two successive Bundestag votes  which can be separated by two weeks    [TGT]   would go to a third vote at which a simple majority would suffice. Only then could Mr Steinmeier dissolve the Bundestag  triggering a new election within 60 days.
If possible  Germanyâs establishmentâincluding   [TGT]  seek to avoid new elections.  [TGT]  could most benefit the far-right Alternative for Germany and would not necessarily rupture the deadlock  current polls putting the main parties very close to the results they obtained at the September election. In  her  comments last night   [TGT] emphasised that   [TGT]   party would âtake responsibility for this country  even in difficult timesâ.   [TGT]   is determined  in other words  to make the best of the hand the German people dealt   [TGT]   in September. Precisely how   [TGT]   plans to proceed should become clearer today.
In recent years Germany has been a pillar of stable government in Europe and   [TGT] a seemingly permanent feature of the landscape (consider that   [TGT]   international counterparts when   [TGT]   first took office were Jacques Chirac  Tony Blair and George W. Bush). Both of those truths are now  if not dead  then slipping away. The next German government will take months more to emerge and will be distinctly fragile in comparison with its predecessors. The end of the Merkel era has surely begun  though whether it has weeks  months or a short number of years to run is anyoneâs guess. Last nightâs events confirmed Emmanuel Macron as Europeâs top leader while making the French presidentâs grand plans for euro-zone reformâfor which he needs a confident and outward-looking Germanyâyet harder to achieve. The ripples of Mr Lindnerâs doubtful decision will travel far beyond his countryâs borders.