Democrat Ralph Northam has clear lead against Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia governor's race
Ed Gillespie
Republican Ed Gillespie and Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam are running in this year's closely watched race for Virginia governor. (Claritza Jimenez/The Washington Post)
A relatively unified party base gives Democrat Ralph Northam a clear lead over  Republican Ed Gillespie  heading into the final month of the Virginia governorâs race  according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll.
Northam leads  Gillespie  by 53 percent to 40 percent among likely voters  with 4 percent supporting Libertarian Cliff Hyra. The advantage is similar to a Post-Schar School poll this spring but larger than in other public polls of likely voters released over the past month  most of which found Northam up by single digits.
 Gillespie  could close the gap by consolidating support among Republicans  who historically have been more apt than Democrats to vote in low-turnout  off-year elections.
Northam is the sitting lieutenant governor and a pediatric neurologist.  Gillespie  is a longtime GOP operative who led the Republican National Committee and nearly unseated U.S. Sen. Mark R. Warner (D) in 2014.
Trump and his actions in nearby Washington continue to distract and preoccupy Virginia voters. Roughly 6 in 10 Virginia likely voters disapprove of his performance as president  and more than 8 in 10 Trump detractors support Democrat Northam. But in a positive sign for  Gillespie   just over half of all likely voters say Trump is not a factor in their choice. Some 17 percent of voters say they plan to vote to send a message of support for Trump  while 30 percent say they are voting to express disapproval.
Nearly 7 in 10 likely voters said they feel that  Gillespie  supports Trump  a perception that continues to hound his candidacy. While Trump is unpopular in Virginia â the only Southern state to vote for Hillary Clinton last fall â most Republican likely voters â 82 percent â approve of Trumpâs job performance.  Gillespie  cannot afford to alienate them as  he  tries to woo independent and moderate voters turned off by the president.
âThat creates a difficult tightrope act to perform â Rozell said.  Gillespie  is âusing some of these issues like immigration to drive the conservative vote  which  he  has not solidified  but  he  has to expand  his  support among groups of voters  he âs not doing well with  particularly women [and] people in the D.C. suburbs and exurbs  where theyâre not as conservative. How  he  pulls this off is  his  candidacy going forward.â
Northam has a few factors working in  his  favor at this stage  according to the survey of 1 121 adults  including 720 likely voters  conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 2. Among likely voters  a near-unanimous 97 percent of Democrats support Northam  compared with 89 percent of Republicans who back  Gillespie . Among independents  47 percent back Northam  while 40 percent support  Gillespie   a margin within the range of sampling error.
While  Gillespie  draws 51 percent of white likely voters compared with 41 percent for Northam and 4 percent for Hyra  the Democrat has a huge edge among African American likely voters â with 90 percent support â and nonwhites in general  at 80 percent.
Women are also a big factor in Northamâs support  with 58 percent favoring the Democrat compared with 37 percent for  Gillespie  among likely voters. Male likely voters split 48 percent for Northam and 43 percent for  Gillespie .
As has been the case in recent years  populous Northern Virginia is leaning heavily toward the Democrat. Northam garners 61 percent of voters in the D.C. suburbs and 55 percent in the exurbs  compared with 35 percent for  Gillespie  around D.C. and 33 percent in the exurbs  where Hyra peaks at 8 percent.
 Gillespie  has a big edge in the rural  southwest portion of the state  with 53 percent to Northamâs 37 percent. But Northam has a comfortable margin in Hampton Roads and the Richmond area.
 Gillespie   who has proposed an across-the-board 10 percent cut to Virginiaâs income tax  leads Northam by 58 percent to 36 percent among likely voters who say the economy is most important in their choice.
Scott Parker  a 49-year-old owner of a construction business  said  Gillespie  represents âcapitalism at its finestâ and would be the best governor to support the private sector.
âI donât think [Gov. Terry] McAuliffe has ruined anything  but I just think it can be better â said Parker  who is drawn to  Gillespie âs promise of income tax cuts.
Republican  [TGT]  and Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam are running in this year's closely watched race for Virginia governor. (Claritza Jimenez/The Washington Post)
A relatively unified party base gives Democrat Ralph Northam a clear lead over  Republican  [TGT]   heading into the final month of the Virginia governorâs race  according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll.
Northam leads  Gillespie  by 53 percent to 40 percent among likely voters  with 4 percent supporting Libertarian Cliff Hyra. The advantage is similar to a Post-Schar School poll this spring but larger than in other public polls of likely voters released over the past month  most of which found Northam up by single digits.
 Gillespie  could close the gap by consolidating support among Republicans  who historically have been more apt than Democrats to vote in low-turnout  off-year elections.
Northam is the sitting lieutenant governor and a pediatric neurologist.  Gillespie  is a longtime GOP operative who led the Republican National Committee and nearly unseated U.S. Sen. Mark R. Warner (D) in 2014.
Trump and his actions in nearby Washington continue to distract and preoccupy Virginia voters. Roughly 6 in 10 Virginia likely voters disapprove of his performance as president  and more than 8 in 10 Trump detractors support Democrat Northam. But in a positive sign for  Gillespie   just over half of all likely voters say Trump is not a factor in their choice. Some 17 percent of voters say they plan to vote to send a message of support for Trump  while 30 percent say they are voting to express disapproval.
Nearly 7 in 10 likely voters said they feel that  Gillespie  supports Trump  a perception that continues to hound his candidacy. While Trump is unpopular in Virginia â the only Southern state to vote for Hillary Clinton last fall â most Republican likely voters â 82 percent â approve of Trumpâs job performance.  Gillespie  cannot afford to alienate them as  he  tries to woo independent and moderate voters turned off by the president.
âThat creates a difficult tightrope act to perform â Rozell said.  Gillespie  is âusing some of these issues like immigration to drive the conservative vote  which  he  has not solidified  but  he  has to expand  his  support among groups of voters  he âs not doing well with  particularly women [and] people in the D.C. suburbs and exurbs  where theyâre not as conservative. How  he  pulls this off is  his  candidacy going forward.â
Northam has a few factors working in  his  favor at this stage  according to the survey of 1 121 adults  including 720 likely voters  conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 2. Among likely voters  a near-unanimous 97 percent of Democrats support Northam  compared with 89 percent of Republicans who back  Gillespie . Among independents  47 percent back Northam  while 40 percent support  Gillespie   a margin within the range of sampling error.
While  Gillespie  draws 51 percent of white likely voters compared with 41 percent for Northam and 4 percent for Hyra  the Democrat has a huge edge among African American likely voters â with 90 percent support â and nonwhites in general  at 80 percent.
Women are also a big factor in Northamâs support  with 58 percent favoring the Democrat compared with 37 percent for  Gillespie  among likely voters. Male likely voters split 48 percent for Northam and 43 percent for  Gillespie .
As has been the case in recent years  populous Northern Virginia is leaning heavily toward the Democrat. Northam garners 61 percent of voters in the D.C. suburbs and 55 percent in the exurbs  compared with 35 percent for  Gillespie  around D.C. and 33 percent in the exurbs  where Hyra peaks at 8 percent.
 Gillespie  has a big edge in the rural  southwest portion of the state  with 53 percent to Northamâs 37 percent. But Northam has a comfortable margin in Hampton Roads and the Richmond area.
 Gillespie   who has proposed an across-the-board 10 percent cut to Virginiaâs income tax  leads Northam by 58 percent to 36 percent among likely voters who say the economy is most important in their choice.
Scott Parker  a 49-year-old owner of a construction business  said  Gillespie  represents âcapitalism at its finestâ and would be the best governor to support the private sector.
âI donât think [Gov. Terry] McAuliffe has ruined anything  but I just think it can be better â said Parker  who is drawn to  Gillespie âs promise of income tax cuts.