Trump just made a bad night for Republicans much worse for himself
Donald J. Trump
It was a gamble  but polling suggested it might be working. His opponent  Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam  saw his lead over Gillespie erode over the past few weeks.  Trump  weighed in for Gillespie in a series of tweets and with automated Election Day phone calls encouraging turnout.
.@EdWGillespie will totally turn around the high crime and poor economic performance of VA. MS-13 and crime will be gone. Vote today  ASAP! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7  2017
 Trump  wasted no time in distancing  himself  from Gillespie  enjoying the spaciousness of  his  now-280-character tweets.
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget  Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats  and with the economy doing record numbers  we will continue to win  even bigger than before! —  Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 8   2017
We’ve noted before that  Trump  has an insurance premium against any calls for  his  impeachment.  His  popularity with Republicans has slipped since the beginning of  his  presidency  but  he ’s still very popular with them  particularly more conservative members of  his  party. (Per Gallup  more than 9 in 10 conservative Republicans approve of  Trump .) Because Republican Party primaries see an overrepresentation of conservatives  that meant that Republicans eager to win reelection to Congress were less likely to turn on the president.
 Trump’s  tweet distancing  himself  from Gillespie sugarcoats the election in a way that may make  Trump  feel better but probably isn’t fooling anyone on Capitol Hill.  His  claim that the GOP won four of four federal races misses a few important points. The first is that those races were in Republican-held districts. The second is that the Democrats saw big gains in most of those races relative to past elections. The third is that the figure is actually four of five;  Trump  likes to ignore a race in California won by the Democrats.
But it also does something very dangerous for  Trump  right now. It shows  yet again  that  he  isn’t loyal to  his  political partners.
We’ve seen this before. When  Trump  backed the House effort to repeal and replace Obamacare (having no plan of  his  own)   he  responded to  its  passage by declaring the bill to be “mean” — as though  he  hadn’t previously claimed it was nearly without flaws. (It was health care  not immigration  that was the big issue in Virginia  according to exit polls. Northam won among voters concerned about health care by a more than 3-to-1 margin.) Even before Election Day in Alabama earlier this year   Trump  began to distance  himself  from  his  preferred candidate Republican Senate primary  Luther Strange  hinting that  he  had perhaps made a mistake — a shift that was certainly informed by polls showing a likely Strange loss. When that happened   Trump  deleted some of  his  tweets of endorsement.
Strange’s campaign  unlike Gillespie’s  didn’t embrace Trumpist politics such as the threat of the gang MS-13.  He  tried to win as a more typical establishment conservative  to no avail. Gillespie tried to more directly embrace  Trump  politics — and lost badly. And then saw  Trump  turn on him.
Think of the message that  Trump  has sent to Republicans. Stand with him on policy and have him bad-mouth what you passed. Embrace his endorsement and see a loss followed by  Trump  playing down his support. Embrace his endorsement and his politics  and see a loss followed by actual criticism. These are all one-offs — but politics generally suffers from a small sample size from which to draw conclusions  and no one spends more time trying to draw conclusions than politicians.
Bannon’s track record in electoral politics? He helped  Trump  lose the popular vote and win the electoral college in 2016. He embraced Luther Strange’s opponent after Strange was trailing. And now he watched the “Trump-Stewart talking points” lead nowhere.
On its home page  Breitbart also championed  Trump ’s argument that Gillespie should have embraced him more robustly. That’s a flawed theory.  Trump  is very unpopular in Virginia  and Northam won among those who disapprove of  Trump  by a 7-to-1 margin  according to preliminary exit polls. A third of voters said their vote in the race was meant to send a message of opposition to  Trump  — twice as many as said it was a message of support.
What’s more   Trump  made  his  feelings clear. Those who wanted to vote for  Trump’s  candidate knew who that candidate was. As in Alabama  voters went in another direction.
It’s critical to remember that Democrats were supposed to win this race  albeit not necessarily by as wide a margin as they did. Democrats hold the governor’s mansion and Hillary Clinton won by five points last year.  Trump  could have congratulated Gillespie on a hard-fought race and noted the uphill battle. Instead   he  decided to try to spin the loss to  his  advantage.
It’s unlikely that many Republicans worried about next November will be convinced by  Trump ’s argument. Instead  they’re likely to take another lesson:  Trump  can’t deliver a victory for you when you’re trailing  and neither can Trumpism. (In fact  there’s every reason to think that  Trump  was the liability that  his  poll numbers would suggest  with Gillespie doing fine in western Virginia but getting beaten badly in more-Democratic Northern Virginia.) Nor will  Trump  stand with you should things go south.
If  next summer  the question of  Trump ’s fate as president is raised  how might Republicans in center-right districts be expected to evaluate that decision?
"It was a gamble  but polling suggested it might be working. His opponent  Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam  saw his lead over Gillespie erode over the past few weeks.  Trump  weighed in for Gillespie in a series of tweets and with automated Election Day phone calls encouraging turnout.
.@EdWGillespie will totally turn around the high crime and poor economic performance of VA. MS-13 and crime will be gone. Vote today  ASAP! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 7  2017
 Trump  wasted no time in distancing  himself  from Gillespie  enjoying the spaciousness of  his  now-280-character tweets.
Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget  Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats  and with the economy doing record numbers  we will continue to win  even bigger than before! —  [TGT]
We’ve noted before that  Trump  has an insurance premium against any calls for  his  impeachment.  His  popularity with Republicans has slipped since the beginning of  his  presidency  but  he ’s still very popular with them  particularly more conservative members of  his  party. (Per Gallup  more than 9 in 10 conservative Republicans approve of [TGT] .) Because Republican Party primaries see an overrepresentation of conservatives  that meant that Republicans eager to win reelection to Congress were less likely to turn on the president.
 Trump’s  tweet distancing  himself  from Gillespie sugarcoats the election in a way that may make  [TGT]  feel better but probably isn’t fooling anyone on Capitol Hill.  His  claim that the GOP won four of four federal races misses a few important points. The first is that those races were in Republican-held districts. The second is that the Democrats saw big gains in most of those races relative to past elections. The third is that the figure is actually four of five;  Trump  likes to ignore a race in California won by the Democrats.
But it also does something very dangerous for  Trump  right now. It shows  yet again  that  he  isn’t loyal to  his  political partners.
We’ve seen this before. When  Trump  backed the House effort to repeal and replace Obamacare (having no plan of  his  own)   he  responded to  its  passage by declaring the bill to be “mean” — as though  he  hadn’t previously claimed it was nearly without flaws. (It was health care  not immigration  that was the big issue in Virginia  according to exit polls. Northam won among voters concerned about health care by a more than 3-to-1 margin.) Even before Election Day in Alabama earlier this year   Trump  began to distance  himself  from  his  preferred candidate Republican Senate primary  Luther Strange  hinting that  he  had perhaps made a mistake — a shift that was certainly informed by polls showing a likely Strange loss. When that happened   Trump  deleted some of  his  tweets of endorsement.
Strange’s campaign  unlike Gillespie’s  didn’t embrace Trumpist politics such as the threat of the gang MS-13.  He  tried to win as a more typical establishment conservative  to no avail. Gillespie tried to more directly embrace  Trump  politics — and lost badly. And then saw  Trump  turn on him.
Think of the message that  Trump  has sent to Republicans. Stand with him on policy and have him bad-mouth what you passed. Embrace his endorsement and see a loss followed by  Trump  playing down his support. Embrace his endorsement and his politics  and see a loss followed by actual criticism. These are all one-offs — but politics generally suffers from a small sample size from which to draw conclusions  and no one spends more time trying to draw conclusions than politicians.
Bannon’s track record in electoral politics? He helped  Trump  lose the popular vote and win the electoral college in 2016. He embraced Luther Strange’s opponent after Strange was trailing. And now he watched the “Trump-Stewart talking points” lead nowhere.
On its home page  Breitbart also championed  Trump ’s argument that Gillespie should have embraced him more robustly. That’s a flawed theory.  Trump  is very unpopular in Virginia  and Northam won among those who disapprove of  Trump  by a 7-to-1 margin  according to preliminary exit polls. A third of voters said their vote in the race was meant to send a message of opposition to  Trump  — twice as many as said it was a message of support.
What’s more   Trump  made  his  feelings clear. Those who wanted to vote for  Trump’s  candidate knew who that candidate was. As in Alabama  voters went in another direction.
It’s critical to remember that Democrats were supposed to win this race  albeit not necessarily by as wide a margin as they did. Democrats hold the governor’s mansion and Hillary Clinton won by five points last year.  Trump  could have congratulated Gillespie on a hard-fought race and noted the uphill battle. Instead   he  decided to try to spin the loss to  his  advantage.
It’s unlikely that many Republicans worried about next November will be convinced by  Trump ’s argument. Instead  they’re likely to take another lesson:  Trump  can’t deliver a victory for you when you’re trailing  and neither can Trumpism. (In fact  there’s every reason to think that  Trump  was the liability that  his  poll numbers would suggest  with Gillespie doing fine in western Virginia but getting beaten badly in more-Democratic Northern Virginia.) Nor will  Trump  stand with you should things go south.
If  next summer  the question of  Trump ’s fate as president is raised  how might Republicans in center-right districts be expected to evaluate that decision?"