How US indifference cleared the way for Assad's victory in Syria
Bashar al-Assad
Representatives of President Bashar al-Assad's government -- who have trooped through many of Geneva's fine hotels -- have never even met face-to-face with Syria's opposition.
Yes  we have been here before. But this time it feels different. Russia is calling almost all the shots  making an outcome in  Assad 's favor much closer.
Indeed  the opposition has in the past insisted  Assad  must go almost as a precondition for talks rather than an outcome of the peace process itself. And where Obama supported this position  Trump is reversing from it.
In late October  US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said: "The only thing that changed is when this administration came into office  we took a view that it is not a prerequisite that  Assad  go before that process starts; rather  the mechanism by which  Assad  departs will likely emerge from that process."
But as we approach this latest round of talks   Assad  seemed to be leveraging Trump's implicit support  delaying  his  delegation's arrival at the talks  pushing back against opposition demands  he  needs to go early in the talks process and not be part of a transitional government.
As the US bows out   Assad  appears empowered and the UN mediator weakened. On the eve of talks  he  issued a statement demanding no preconditions from either side.
Russia and the US agree to do all they can to reach a compromise -- Russia with  Assad ; the US with the opposition.
Yet each time talks collapse because  Assad 's forces ratchet up their offensives and sieges.
The opposition  not unreasonably  says it can't negotiate while its people are being starved and killed. Mediators call for pauses in the talks that can drag out for months. The pause then only ends when  Assad  wins whatever battle  he 'd used to stall the talks.
On the eve of these talks  Eastern Ghouta -- a suburb of Damascus -- is in the headlines. It is the latest pocket of opposition  Assad  is trying to extinguish. International observers will be watching carefully  albeit with no clout to change the dynamic  should  he  use the cover of these talks to accelerate attacks here.
Each time has  Assad  crashed the talks previously  Russia -- rather than convince  him  to stop -- has helped provide cover for  him .
That was Obama's understanding with Putin. The US believed Russia would do as it said it would -- namely  telling  Assad  to stop fighting -- and negotiate in good faith. It never happened.
When finally Russia did vote for UN Security Council Resolution 2254   calling for a political  not military solution and setting a time frame and process for  Assad  to end the war and transition from power  it seemed impossible the Russians could weasel out of their obligations again. Yet they did.
For any democratic leader  victory at the cost Syria has paid -- hundreds of thousands dead  more than half the population displaced  and close to 5 million refugees forced to flee the country -- would be pyrrhic in the extreme. But not for  Assad  and  his  ally Vladimir Putin.
How different things are now. As parties get ready to arrive in Geneva  Putin recently held a meeting with all the key powers in the region and beyond  which was notable for  Assad 's presence outside Syria for the first time in seven years.
That a man as paranoid as  Assad  could be lured from his safe Damascus lair is an indication of the influence Putin holds over him.
Representatives of President Bashar al-Assad's government -- who have trooped through many of Geneva's fine hotels -- have never even met face-to-face with Syria's opposition.
Yes  we have been here before. But this time it feels different. Russia is calling almost all the shots  making an outcome in  [TGT] 's favor much closer.
Indeed  the opposition has in the past insisted  [TGT]must go almost as a precondition for talks rather than an outcome of the peace process itself. And where Obama supported this position  Trump is reversing from it.
In late October  US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said: "The only thing that changed is when this administration came into office  we took a view that it is not a prerequisite that  [TGT]go before that process starts; rather  the mechanism by which  [TGT]departs will likely emerge from that process."
But as we approach this latest round of talks   Assad  seemed to be leveraging Trump's implicit support  delaying  his  delegation's arrival at the talks  pushing back against opposition demands  he  needs to go early in the talks process and not be part of a transitional government.
As the US bows out   Assad  appears empowered and the UN mediator weakened. On the eve of talks  he  issued a statement demanding no preconditions from either side.
Russia and the US agree to do all they can to reach a compromise -- Russia with  Assad ; the US with the opposition.
Yet each time talks collapse because  Assad 's forces ratchet up their offensives and sieges.
The opposition  not unreasonably  says it can't negotiate while its people are being starved and killed. Mediators call for pauses in the talks that can drag out for months. The pause then only ends when  Assad  wins whatever battle  he 'd used to stall the talks.
On the eve of these talks  Eastern Ghouta -- a suburb of Damascus -- is in the headlines. It is the latest pocket of opposition  Assad  is trying to extinguish. International observers will be watching carefully  albeit with no clout to change the dynamic  should  he  use the cover of these talks to accelerate attacks here.
Each time has  Assad  crashed the talks previously  Russia -- rather than convince  him  to stop -- has helped provide cover for  him .
That was Obama's understanding with Putin. The US believed Russia would do as it said it would -- namely  telling  Assad  to stop fighting -- and negotiate in good faith. It never happened.
When finally Russia did vote for UN Security Council Resolution 2254   calling for a political  not military solution and setting a time frame and process for  Assad  to end the war and transition from power  it seemed impossible the Russians could weasel out of their obligations again. Yet they did.
For any democratic leader  victory at the cost Syria has paid -- hundreds of thousands dead  more than half the population displaced  and close to 5 million refugees forced to flee the country -- would be pyrrhic in the extreme. But not for  Assad  and  his  ally Vladimir Putin.
How different things are now. As parties get ready to arrive in Geneva  Putin recently held a meeting with all the key powers in the region and beyond  which was notable for  Assad 's presence outside Syria for the first time in seven years.
That a man as paranoid as  Assad  could be lured from his safe Damascus lair is an indication of the influence Putin holds over him.