How China will play Trump
Donald J. Trump
Getting ready to make a major speech to the National Assembly here in South Korea  then will be headed to China where I very much look forward to meeting with President Xi who is just off his great political victory. â Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 8  2017
Looking forward to a full day of meetings with President Xi and our delegations tomorrow. THANK YOU for the beautiful welcome China! @FLOTUS Melania and I will never forget it! pic.twitter.com/sQoUWIGAiQ â  Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 8  2017
On  the former  Trump  appears to have laid down  his  cards. The hard-line speech  he  delivered before the South Korean National Assembly on Wednesday poured scorn on Pyongyang. âNorth Korea is a country ruled as a cult â  he  said. âAt the center of this military cult is a deranged belief in the leaderâs destiny to rule as parent-protector over a conquered Korean Peninsula and an enslaved Korean people.â
Later in the speech   Trump  gave North Korea a sharp warning: âDo not underestimate us â  he  said. âAnd do not try us.â
It's not just a matter of sending tough messages to the North Koreans â who quickly dismissed  Trump 's remarks as the ravings of a âmad dog.â  Trump  and hawkish figures within  his  camp see China as both the problem and the solution to addressing North Korea and have long insisted that Beijing do more to squeeze its otherwise-isolated neighbor.
âTo those nations that choose to ignore this threat or worse still  to enable it  the weight of this crisis is on your conscience â  Trump  said in Seoul.
But no matter how hard  Trump  will try  it's emphatically clear that the Chinese don't see eye-to-eye with the Americans. Although they have no affection for North Korean despot Kim Jong Un  they fear both the chaos that the collapse of Kim's regime could create as well as the prospect of a unified  pro-American Korea on its doorstep. While they are increasing economic pressure on Pyongyang  they are unlikely to cut off the spigot to any extent that would provoke genuine instability. Instead  China advocates a diplomatic track that could lead to negotiations  although potentially with conditions to which neither the United States nor its regional allies may be inclined to agree.
âThere are big differences in the way of thinking between the United States and China on North Korea â Yang Xiyu  a former Chinese Foreign Ministry negotiator on North Korea  said to the New York Times. â Trump  thinks of North Korea too simplistically â that if China cuts off the oil  the nuclear issue will be solved.â
On trade  China will give  Trump  the useful headlines  he  seeks. The White House is expected to announce lucrative deals between U.S. and Chinese companies that could be worth as much as $250 billion  according to Bloomberg News. But it's not expected to win to any real Chinese concession on the larger structural concerns surrounding the trade imbalance between the countries.
âEven if Xi and  Trump  sign import and investment agreements  as anticipated  Trumpâs demands will do little to either reduce the trade deficit or restore American jobs (which have largely been lost to automation  not to China) " Mira Rapp-Hopper wrote in Foreign Affairs.
Getting ready to make a major speech to the National Assembly here in South Korea  then will be headed to China where I very much look forward to meeting with President Xi who is just off his great political victory. â  [TGT] 
Looking forward to a full day of meetings with President Xi and our delegations tomorrow. THANK YOU for the beautiful welcome China! @FLOTUS Melania and I will never forget it! pic.twitter.com/sQoUWIGAiQ â   [TGT] 
On  the former  Trump  appears to have laid down  his  cards. The hard-line speech  he  delivered before the South Korean National Assembly on Wednesday poured scorn on Pyongyang. âNorth Korea is a country ruled as a cult â  he  said. âAt the center of this military cult is a deranged belief in the leaderâs destiny to rule as parent-protector over a conquered Korean Peninsula and an enslaved Korean people.â
Later in the speech   Trump  gave North Korea a sharp warning: âDo not underestimate us â  he  said. âAnd do not try us.â
It's not just a matter of sending tough messages to the North Koreans â who quickly dismissed  Trump 's remarks as the ravings of a âmad dog.â  Trump  and hawkish figures within  his  camp see China as both the problem and the solution to addressing North Korea and have long insisted that Beijing do more to squeeze its otherwise-isolated neighbor.
âTo those nations that choose to ignore this threat or worse still  to enable it  the weight of this crisis is on your conscience â  Trump  said in Seoul.
But no matter how hard  Trump  will try  it's emphatically clear that the Chinese don't see eye-to-eye with the Americans. Although they have no affection for North Korean despot Kim Jong Un  they fear both the chaos that the collapse of Kim's regime could create as well as the prospect of a unified  pro-American Korea on its doorstep. While they are increasing economic pressure on Pyongyang  they are unlikely to cut off the spigot to any extent that would provoke genuine instability. Instead  China advocates a diplomatic track that could lead to negotiations  although potentially with conditions to which neither the United States nor its regional allies may be inclined to agree.
âThere are big differences in the way of thinking between the United States and China on North Korea â Yang Xiyu  a former Chinese Foreign Ministry negotiator on North Korea  said to the New York Times. â Trump  thinks of North Korea too simplistically â that if China cuts off the oil  the nuclear issue will be solved.â
On trade  China will give  Trump  the useful headlines  he  seeks. The White House is expected to announce lucrative deals between U.S. and Chinese companies that could be worth as much as $250 billion  according to Bloomberg News. But it's not expected to win to any real Chinese concession on the larger structural concerns surrounding the trade imbalance between the countries.
âEven if Xi and  Trump  sign import and investment agreements  as anticipated  Trumpâs demands will do little to either reduce the trade deficit or restore American jobs (which have largely been lost to automation  not to China) " Mira Rapp-Hopper wrote in Foreign Affairs.