Fed's Yellen says gradual hikes should continue despite weak inflation
Yellen
CLEVELAND (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve needs to continue gradual rate hikes despite broad uncertainty about the path of inflation   Fed Chair Janet Yellen  said on Tuesday in remarks that acknowledged the central bankâs struggles to forecast one of its key policy objectives.
It is possible   Yellen  said  that the Fed may have âmisspecifiedâ its models for inflation  and âmisjudgedâ key facts like the underlying strength of the labor market and whether inflation expectations are as stable as they seem  and central bankers need to remain open to that possibility as they decide on policy.
Still  recent low inflation was likely a reflection of factors that would fade over time and despite uncertainties  it âwould be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2 percent â  Yellen  said in a 37-page address to the National Association for Business Economics
 Yellen âs remarks attempt to resolve a debate that has split members of the central bank among those worried that inflation may be permanently anchored below the Fedâs 2 percent target because of structural changes in the global economy  and those who feel it is only a matter of time before tight labor markets lead wages and prices to rise.
The dollar shot up then retreated after Yellenâs comments  reflecting uncertainty about her message. Treasury yields and stocks edged slightly higher.
 Yellen  said Tuesday  she  would be looking at inflation and labor market data closely in coming months to assess the outlook  but âthe data is noisy and itâs not going to be a magic bullet.â
And while the timing of rate hikes may not be predictable   she  said  âthe path is likely to be gradual.â
 Yellen  walked systematically through arguments that weak inflation reflected structural changes  and largely discounted them.
There was not yet âempirical supportâ for the theory that global trade  worldwide supply chains  and other forces were holding down U.S. prices   she  said.
Meanwhile  the Fed calculates that cyclical slack in the labor market was now having a ânegligibleâ impact on low inflation readings  compared to oil prices and other changes that will fade. And some aspects of the labor market that appear weak  such as the still-elevated number of part-time workers  may reflect permanent changes in the workforce  and not cyclical factors   Yellen  said.
But for now the Fed âcontinues to anticipate that  with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy  inflation will rise and stabilize at around 2 percent over the medium term â  she  said. âWe should be wary of moving too gradually.â
CLEVELAND (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve needs to continue gradual rate hikes despite broad uncertainty about the path of inflation   Fed Chair Janet Yellen  said on Tuesday in remarks that acknowledged the central bankâs struggles to forecast one of its key policy objectives.
It is possible    [TGT] said  that the Fed may have âmisspecifiedâ its models for inflation  and âmisjudgedâ key facts like the underlying strength of the labor market and whether inflation expectations are as stable as they seem  and central bankers need to remain open to that possibility as they decide on policy.
Still  recent low inflation was likely a reflection of factors that would fade over time and despite uncertainties  it âwould be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2 percent â   [TGT] said in a 37-page address to the National Association for Business Economics
  [TGT]  âs remarks attempt to resolve a debate that has split members of the central bank among those worried that inflation may be permanently anchored below the Fedâs 2 percent target because of structural changes in the global economy  and those who feel it is only a matter of time before tight labor markets lead wages and prices to rise.
The dollar shot up then retreated after Yellenâs comments  reflecting uncertainty about  [TGT]  message. Treasury yields and stocks edged slightly higher.
  [TGT] said Tuesday   [TGT]   would be looking at inflation and labor market data closely in coming months to assess the outlook  but âthe data is noisy and itâs not going to be a magic bullet.â
And while the timing of rate hikes may not be predictable    [TGT]   said  âthe path is likely to be gradual.â
  [TGT] walked systematically through arguments that weak inflation reflected structural changes  and largely discounted them.
There was not yet âempirical supportâ for the theory that global trade  worldwide supply chains  and other forces were holding down U.S. prices    [TGT]   said.
Meanwhile  the Fed calculates that cyclical slack in the labor market was now having a ânegligibleâ impact on low inflation readings  compared to oil prices and other changes that will fade. And some aspects of the labor market that appear weak  such as the still-elevated number of part-time workers  may reflect permanent changes in the workforce  and not cyclical factors    [TGT] said.
But for now the Fed âcontinues to anticipate that  with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy  inflation will rise and stabilize at around 2 percent over the medium term â  she  said. âWe should be wary of moving too gradually.â