How Trump Can (and Probably Will) Botch the Iran Situation
It took about a day for  Donald Trump  to insert  himself  into the situation.
On Friday   the president  took to Twitter to laud the protests as a sign Iranians were fed up with their government for its âsquandering of the national wealth to fund terrorism abroad.â And  he âs continued sounding off about the protests since  in part by bashing  his  predecessorâs Iran policiesâthe Obama administration was famously rather hands-off during the 2009 âGreen Movement â the last major outbreak of protests in the country  a strategic decision then secretary of state Hillary Clinton came to regret. On Wednesday   Trump  went so far as to suggest  his  administration may take some sort of action in support of the protesters âat the appropriate time â though as usual with  him   itâs awfully difficult to know what this actually means.
Trumpâs fixation on the protests isnât surprising. As always   he  seems determined to use the issue to show  he âs bigger and better than Obama. Practically speaking   he  could conceivably take this opportunity to re-impose sanctions the last administration lifted in 2015 in exchange for a freeze on Iranâs nuclear program. (The waiver on those sanctions needs to be renewed every few months  and the next deadline is coming up in just over a week.) Key Trump allies have also been talking openly about adopting an explicit policy of undermining the Iranian government and pushing for regime change.
VICE: When these protests broke out  given everything we know about him  how did you expect  Trump  to react?
Jamal Abdi: My fear was that  Trump  would exploit [this] for  his  policy agenda that  his  administration was hoping to push forward for a long time... that  Trump  [might] use this to kill the nuclear deal and change US policy firmly towards regime change in Iran. Which I donât think will lead to regime change. It could lead to war. But more likely  it will lead to a situation in Iran where thereâs a more severe clampdownâ¦ and the prospect of moving towards more open governance and greater human rights becomes even more reduced because of tensions with the United States.
I donât think the rhetoric has factored into the Iranian response yet. Probably that will change if  Trump  decides to not [continue to] waive sanctions. I see that as an opportunity for Iranâs leaders to say  Look  the United States is behind the economic grievances that sparked these protests.
 Trump  has said nice things about the Iranian people  that theyâve been held back by their current system of government. But thatâs rhetorical. You couple that with new policies like piling on sanctions that actually will hurt Iranians and the fact that  Trump  is banning all Iranians from coming to the United States and it rings hallow in Iran. I donât think many Iranians are looking at  Trump  as someone they want as the leading voice of whatever this movement ends up being.
 Trump  has exacerbated that  because now people [think] the US could really try to get involved. Then other players may want to get involved. Iâve heard people talk about this fear of  What if the Saudis try to get involved and send weapons into Iran? That has made a lot of people who were maybe involved in the 2009 protests or who want changes to say  I donât want to get involved because Iâm afraid what could happen with  Trump  and other outside actors if this goes too far.
What will happen in Iran if  Trump  pulls out of the nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions?
The nuclear deal is one of Hassan Rouhaniâs [the moderate who won Iranâs presidency in 2013] only major achievements. It was supposed to bring economic prosperity. It hasnât  and the majority of Iranians view it as a failure because they donât see their lives getting better. If  Trump  does this  it will pull the rug out from under the Rouhani government and any hope diplomacy and moderation can make things better and will give the hardliners cover to take over.
In the short-term  if  Trump  reacts with sanctions that go against the economic concerns of the protestors  will that make it hard for the regime to argue  as it often does when unrest breaks out  that the people on the street are being funded or stoked by America?
This is probably an opportunity for what  Trump  wants to do that  his  administration is not going to let go of  even if the protests fizzle out. They are going to use this to try to push the US into a full regime-change policy. Thatâs where I expect things to lead  unfortunately.
It took about a day for   [TGT] to insert   [TGT]   into the situation.
On Friday   the president  took to Twitter to laud the protests as a sign Iranians were fed up with their government for its âsquandering of the national wealth to fund terrorism abroad.â And  he âs continued sounding off about the protests since  in part by bashing  his  predecessorâs Iran policiesâthe Obama administration was famously rather hands-off during the 2009 âGreen Movement â the last major outbreak of protests in the country  a strategic decision then secretary of state Hillary Clinton came to regret. On Wednesday    [TGT] went so far as to suggest   [TGT]   administration may take some sort of action in support of the protesters âat the appropriate time â though as usual with   [TGT]    itâs awfully difficult to know what this actually means.
Trumpâs fixation on the protests isnât surprising. As always   he  seems determined to use the issue to show  he âs bigger and better than Obama. Practically speaking   he  could conceivably take this opportunity to re-impose sanctions the last administration lifted in 2015 in exchange for a freeze on Iranâs nuclear program. (The waiver on those sanctions needs to be renewed every few months  and the next deadline is coming up in just over a week.) Key Trump allies have also been talking openly about adopting an explicit policy of undermining the Iranian government and pushing for regime change.
VICE: When these protests broke out  given everything we know about him  how did you expect  Trump  to react?
Jamal Abdi: My fear was that  Trump  would exploit [this] for  his  policy agenda that  his  administration was hoping to push forward for a long time... that  Trump  [might] use this to kill the nuclear deal and change US policy firmly towards regime change in Iran. Which I donât think will lead to regime change. It could lead to war. But more likely  it will lead to a situation in Iran where thereâs a more severe clampdownâ¦ and the prospect of moving towards more open governance and greater human rights becomes even more reduced because of tensions with the United States.
I donât think the rhetoric has factored into the Iranian response yet. Probably that will change if  Trump  decides to not [continue to] waive sanctions. I see that as an opportunity for Iranâs leaders to say  Look  the United States is behind the economic grievances that sparked these protests.
 Trump  has said nice things about the Iranian people  that theyâve been held back by their current system of government. But thatâs rhetorical. You couple that with new policies like piling on sanctions that actually will hurt Iranians and the fact that  Trump  is banning all Iranians from coming to the United States and it rings hallow in Iran. I donât think many Iranians are looking at  Trump  as someone they want as the leading voice of whatever this movement ends up being.
 Trump  has exacerbated that  because now people [think] the US could really try to get involved. Then other players may want to get involved. Iâve heard people talk about this fear of  What if the Saudis try to get involved and send weapons into Iran? That has made a lot of people who were maybe involved in the 2009 protests or who want changes to say  I donât want to get involved because Iâm afraid what could happen with  Trump  and other outside actors if this goes too far.
What will happen in Iran if  Trump  pulls out of the nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions?
The nuclear deal is one of Hassan Rouhaniâs [the moderate who won Iranâs presidency in 2013] only major achievements. It was supposed to bring economic prosperity. It hasnât  and the majority of Iranians view it as a failure because they donât see their lives getting better. If  Trump  does this  it will pull the rug out from under the Rouhani government and any hope diplomacy and moderation can make things better and will give the hardliners cover to take over.
In the short-term  if  Trump  reacts with sanctions that go against the economic concerns of the protestors  will that make it hard for the regime to argue  as it often does when unrest breaks out  that the people on the street are being funded or stoked by America?
This is probably an opportunity for what  Trump  wants to do that  his  administration is not going to let go of  even if the protests fizzle out. They are going to use this to try to push the US into a full regime-change policy. Thatâs where I expect things to lead  unfortunately.