Trump says solar tariff will create âa lot of jobs.â But it could wipe out many more.
President Trump  imposed tariffs on imported residential washing machines and solar powered products on Jan. 23. (The Washington Post)
â  President Trump   discussing a new tariff on solar-cell imports in remarks at the White House  Jan. 23  2018
 Trump  says a tariff on solar-energy cells and panels will create jobs and revive a U.S. manufacturing sector that has been decimated by imports.
The tariff sparked controversy in the solar industry after  Trump  imposed it Jan. 23. A couple of remaining U.S. solar-cell manufacturers say it will help them get back on their feet. But the developers that install solar panels and farms â a much larger segment of the industry â say it will hike their costs  kill projects and make it harder to compete with wind and natural gas.
But the tariff is bound to change the dynamics. Will it add âa lot of jobs â as  Trump  says?
Relying on a little-used section of trade law that lets him âsafeguardâ U.S. products being hammered by imports   Trump  imposed a tariff on solar cells and modules that starts at 30 percent in 2018. The tariff then drops to 25 percent in 2019; 20 percent in 2020; and 15 percent in  its  final year  2021. The first 2.5 gigawatts of imported solar cells are exempt from the tariff each year.
The tariff rates were set by the  Trump  administration  not the ITC  and announced by U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer on Jan. 23  along with another tariff on washing machines.
The Solar Energy Industries Association  a national trade group  also opposed a tariff in ITC testimony and estimated that 23 000 jobs would be lost in 2018 because of  Trumpâs  move.
Independent analysts at GTM Research estimated that  Trumpâs  tariff would cause an 11 percent decline in the amount of solar power capacity expected to be installed in the United States over five years  from 2018 to 2022. GTM analysts say  the tariff  will slow but not stop the growth in the solar industry.
The trade group said it took a previous study by IHS Markit on the potential effect of several different tariff rates and adjusted its figures to reflect Trumpâs final numbers. The National Renewable Energy Lab has developed a model for estimating how many jobs would be needed for solar installation projects. The Solar Energy Industries Association ran its numbers through that model to estimate how many jobs would be needed in total after accounting for the lower number of solar installations.
With that in mind  our next question was whether the tariff could start a boom in solar-cell manufacturing. After all  thatâs the part of the industry  Trump  is trying to help. And if  his  plan works  that could offset the losses on the installation and maintenance side of the industry.
For what itâs worth  the SEIA says that  by factoring in both employment gains and losses from  Trumpâs  tariff  manufacturing jobs overall in the solar industry would decline by 800 in 2018. Thatâs part of their analysis estimating a 23 000 net job loss in 2018.
In this case   Trump  says U.S.-based manufacturers will add âa lot of jobsâ because of a tariff he imposed on imported solar cells and modules. The homegrown industry for these products has been decimated by competitors in low-wage countries over the past decade  but thereâs no anecdotal evidence or research that indicates  Trumpâs  tariff will bring about an American renewal.
Instead  independent analysts  solar industry leaders and the industryâs national trade association say the tariff will price solar installation companies out of the game in places where their projects could be competing with wind or natural gas. The Solar Energy Industries Association estimated that 23 000 net jobs would be lost in the first year of  Trump âs tariff  and tens of thousands more in the following three years before it expires.
We will be interested to see the tariffâs ultimate effect on the U.S. economy. But for now  a weighing of the evidence on both sides of this debate shows that  Trump  paints a partial picture. Some manufacturing jobs could be created by the tariff  but many more jobs could be wiped out in the fastest-growing sector of the solar industry. For this  we give the president Three Pinocchios.
Keep tabs on  Trumpâs  promises with our Trump Promise Tracker
[TGT] imposed tariffs on imported residential washing machines and solar powered products on Jan. 23. (The Washington Post)
â   [TGT] discussing a new tariff on solar-cell imports in remarks at the White House  Jan. 23  2018
  [TGT] says a tariff on solar-energy cells and panels will create jobs and revive a U.S. manufacturing sector that has been decimated by imports.
The tariff sparked controversy in the solar industry after   [TGT]   imposed  [TGT]  Jan. 23. A couple of remaining U.S. solar-cell manufacturers say  [TGT]  will help them get back on their feet. But the developers that install solar panels and farms â a much larger segment of the industry â say it will hike their costs  kill projects and make it harder to compete with wind and natural gas.
But the tariff is bound to change the dynamics. Will it add âa lot of jobs â as   [TGT] says?
Relying on a little-used section of trade law that lets him âsafeguardâ U.S. products being hammered by imports    [TGT]   imposed a tariff on solar cells and modules that starts at 30 percent in 2018. The tariff then drops to 25 percent in 2019; 20 percent in 2020; and 15 percent in  its  final year  2021. The first 2.5 gigawatts of imported solar cells are exempt from the tariff each year.
The tariff rates were set by the   [TGT] administration  not the ITC  and announced by U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer on Jan. 23  along with another tariff on washing machines.
The Solar Energy Industries Association  a national trade group  also opposed a tariff in ITC testimony and estimated that 23 000 jobs would be lost in 2018 because of  Trumpâs  move.
Independent analysts at GTM Research estimated that  Trumpâs  tariff would cause an 11 percent decline in the amount of solar power capacity expected to be installed in the United States over five years  from 2018 to 2022. GTM analysts say  the tariff  will slow but not stop the growth in the solar industry.
The trade group said it took a previous study by IHS Markit on the potential effect of several different tariff rates and adjusted its figures to reflect Trumpâs final numbers. The National Renewable Energy Lab has developed a model for estimating how many jobs would be needed for solar installation projects. The Solar Energy Industries Association ran its numbers through that model to estimate how many jobs would be needed in total after accounting for the lower number of solar installations.
With that in mind  our next question was whether the tariff could start a boom in solar-cell manufacturing. After all  thatâs the part of the industry  Trump  is trying to help. And if  his  plan works  that could offset the losses on the installation and maintenance side of the industry.
For what itâs worth  the SEIA says that  [TGT]  would decline by 800 in 2018. Thatâs part of  [TGT]  analysis estimating a 23 000 net job loss in 2018.
In this case    [TGT] says U.S.-based manufacturers will add âa lot of jobsâ because of a tariff  [TGT]  imposed on imported solar cells and modules. The homegrown industry for these products has been decimated by competitors in low-wage countries over the past decade  but thereâs no anecdotal evidence or research that indicates   [TGT]  will bring about an American renewal.
Instead  independent analysts  solar industry leaders and the industryâs national trade association say  [TGT]  will price solar installation companies out of the game in places where their projects could be competing with wind or natural gas. The Solar Energy Industries Association estimated that 23 000 net jobs would be lost in the first year of   [TGT]  âs tariff  and tens of thousands more in the following three years before it expires.
We will be interested to see the tariffâs ultimate effect on the U.S. economy. But for now  a weighing of the evidence on both sides of this debate shows that   [TGT]   paints a partial picture. Some manufacturing jobs could be created by the tariff  but many more jobs could be wiped out in the fastest-growing sector of the solar industry. For this  we give the president Three Pinocchios.
Keep tabs on  Trumpâs  promises with our Trump Promise Tracker