Rep. Darrell Issa To Retire Adding To Record GOP Exodus From Congress : NPR
On Monday  Royce  a California Republican  added his name to the retirement roster. The House Foreign Affairs chairman is now one of eight committee chairmen who are calling it quits. And now with Issa also leaving  there are four open districts held by a GOP member that  Trump  lost last election  making those top Democratic opportunities.
Democrats need 24 seats to flip control of the House  and history  in addition to other promising signs  is on their side. Going back to World War II  the president's party loses an average of 28 seats in his first midterm election â and none of those happened with a president's approval rating as low as  Trump 's currently sits. The exception was in 2002  when the Republicans gained seats about a year after the Sept. 11 attacks.
Royce and Issa could both fall into that category. Royce had insisted last year that he was on board for another term  but then abruptly changed his mind on Monday. His Orange County district â which used to be solid Republican territory â voted for  Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump  in 2016 by more than 8 points. It's now one of the most vulnerable seats in the country and follows a pattern of longtime GOP-held suburban seats sliding away from Republican control.
Issa's San Diego seat also shifted quite a bit after the last election.  Trump  lost this seat by 7 points  while in 2012  GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried it by 6 points. Issa also narrowly escaped with a victory in 2016  only winning by 1 621 votes.
Even before Issa's and Royce's announcements  there were already other retirements for Republicans in diverse  swing seats that  Clinton  won  inducing heartburn for party leaders. Rep. Illena Ros-Lehtinen's Miami district is all but gone for the GOP;  Trump  lost it by 19 points to  Clinton   making it the most Democratic-leaning seat held by a Republican.
Republicans could struggle to hold onto Washington Rep. Dave Reichert's suburban Seattle district  too.  Clinton  eked out a 3-point victory there  and it sits dead in the center of the Partisan Voter Index  a measure by the Cook Political Report of the competitiveness of districts.
And there is likely to be another opening on the board if Arizona GOP Rep. Martha McSally  as expected  announces her bid for Senate on Friday.  Clinton  carried  her  Tucson district by about 5 points in 2016.
There are other open seats created by retirements that give Democrats opportunities as well  particularly in marginal seats.  Trump  won the districts of both retiring Reps. Dave Trott  R-Mich.  and Charlie Dent  R-Pa.  by 7 points or less  and the Partisan Voter Index gives them both a rating of R+4. Democrats also have a shot at Rep. Frank LoBiondo's southern New Jersey district  which  Trump  carried by 4 points and is rated R+1.
The most problematic opening is created by Rep. Tim Walz's decision to run for  Minnesota governor â Trump  carried  his  district by 15 points. Another seat Democrats will have to fight to hold on to is that of Rep. Carol Shea-Porter  D-N.H.  who is retiring and is the only Democrat leaving outright who sits in a district  Trump  won.
Two Senate candidates that give Democrats excellent shots at picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada have  in turn  created headaches for the House committee. Trump carried Rep. Jacky Rosen's southern Nevada seat by 1 point  and she only barely beat a weak GOP candidate. In Arizona  Rep. Kyrsten Sinema's decision to run for Senate gives Republicans an opening as well â her seat has a PVI of only D+4; however   Clinton  easily won the district by 16 points.
And the decision by Rep. Ruben Kihuen  D-Nev.  not to seek re-election amid sexual harassment allegations adds another seat Democrats have to defend in a district  Clinton  only carried by 5 points.
The member pointed to the fact that upwards of 80 percent of Republicans remain supportive of  Trump   higher than GOP support for President George W. Bush ahead of the 2006 midterm elections when Democrats swept to power. "So in an off-year  when just the base is kinda turning out  I think we can pick up a lot of seats."
On Monday  Royce  a California Republican  added his name to the retirement roster. The House Foreign Affairs chairman is now one of eight committee chairmen who are calling it quits. And now with Issa also leaving  there are four open districts held by a GOP member that  Trump  lost last election  making those top Democratic opportunities.
Democrats need 24 seats to flip control of the House  and history  in addition to other promising signs  is on their side. Going back to World War II  the president's party loses an average of 28 seats in his first midterm election â and none of those happened with a president's approval rating as low as  Trump 's currently sits. The exception was in 2002  when the Republicans gained seats about a year after the Sept. 11 attacks.
Royce and Issa could both fall into that category. Royce had insisted last year that he was on board for another term  but then abruptly changed his mind on Monday. His Orange County district â which used to be solid Republican territory â voted for  Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over  [TGT] in 2016 by more than 8 points. It's now one of the most vulnerable seats in the country and follows a pattern of longtime GOP-held suburban seats sliding away from Republican control.
Issa's San Diego seat also shifted quite a bit after the last election.   [TGT]   lost this seat by 7 points  while in 2012  GOP nominee Mitt Romney carried it by 6 points. Issa also narrowly escaped with a victory in 2016  only winning by 1 621 votes.
Even before Issa's and Royce's announcements  there were already other retirements for Republicans in diverse  swing seats that  Clinton  won  inducing heartburn for party leaders. Rep. Illena Ros-Lehtinen's Miami district is all but gone for the GOP;   [TGT]   lost it by 19 points to  Clinton   making it the most Democratic-leaning seat held by a Republican.
Republicans could struggle to hold onto Washington Rep. Dave Reichert's suburban Seattle district  too.  Clinton  eked out a 3-point victory there  and it sits dead in the center of the Partisan Voter Index  a measure by the Cook Political Report of the competitiveness of districts.
And there is likely to be another opening on the board if Arizona GOP Rep. Martha McSally  as expected  announces her bid for Senate on Friday.  Clinton  carried  her  Tucson district by about 5 points in 2016.
There are other open seats created by retirements that give Democrats opportunities as well  particularly in marginal seats.  Trump  won the districts of both retiring Reps. Dave Trott  R-Mich.  and Charlie Dent  R-Pa.  by 7 points or less  and the Partisan Voter Index gives them both a rating of R+4. Democrats also have a shot at Rep. Frank LoBiondo's southern New Jersey district  which  Trump  carried by 4 points and is rated R+1.
The most problematic opening is created by Rep. Tim Walz's decision to run for  Minnesota governor â Trump  carried  his  district by 15 points. Another seat Democrats will have to fight to hold on to is that of Rep. Carol Shea-Porter  D-N.H.  who is retiring and is the only Democrat leaving outright who sits in a district  Trump  won.
Two Senate candidates that give Democrats excellent shots at picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada have  in turn  created headaches for the House committee. Trump carried Rep. Jacky Rosen's southern Nevada seat by 1 point  and she only barely beat a weak GOP candidate. In Arizona  Rep. Kyrsten Sinema's decision to run for Senate gives Republicans an opening as well â her seat has a PVI of only D+4; however   Clinton  easily won the district by 16 points.
And the decision by Rep. Ruben Kihuen  D-Nev.  not to seek re-election amid sexual harassment allegations adds another seat Democrats have to defend in a district  Clinton  only carried by 5 points.
The member pointed to the fact that upwards of 80 percent of Republicans remain supportive of  Trump   higher than GOP support for President George W. Bush ahead of the 2006 midterm elections when Democrats swept to power. "So in an off-year  when just the base is kinda turning out  I think we can pick up a lot of seats."