Exclusive: Canada increasingly convinced Trump will pull out of NAFTA
LONDON  Ontario (Reuters) - Canada is increasingly convinced that  President Donald Trump  will soon announce the United States intends to pull out of NAFTA  two government sources said on Wednesday  sending the Canadian and Mexican currencies lower and hurting stocks.
The comments cast further doubt on prospects for talks to modernize the trilateral North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)  which  Trump  has repeatedly threatened to abandon unless major changes are made.
It is not certain the United States would quit NAFTA even if  Trump  gave the required six monthsâ notice  since  he  is not obliged to act once the deadline runs out. Notice of withdrawal could also raise opposition in Congress.
One of the Canadian government sources also said later it was not certain that  Trump  would move against the treaty and that Ottawa was prepared for many scenarios.
âThe government is increasingly sure about this ... it is now planning for  Trump  to announce a withdrawal â one of the sources  who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the situation  said.
Separately  a U.S. source close to the White House quoted  Trump  as saying âI want outâ as the talks drag on with little sign of progress.
 Trump  has long called the 1994 treaty a bad deal that hurts American workers.  His  negotiating team has set proposals that have alarmed their Canadian and Mexican counterparts.
Scott Minerd  Global Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Partners  said âif  Trump  were to announce a NAFTA exit  the stock market would probably pull back by 5 percent or so before advancing to new highs. Most likely the Canadians are reacting to the Presidentâs negotiating posture.â
The Canadian sources said that if  Trump  did announce the United States was pulling out  Canada would stay at the table  since the talks would continue at a lower level. Mexico has previously said it would walk away if  Trump  formally announced Washington intended to quit.
Canadian officials say if  Trump  does announce a U.S. withdrawal   it  could be a negotiating tactic designed to win concessions. The talks are scheduled to wrap up by the end of March.
LONDON  Ontario (Reuters) - Canada is increasingly convinced that   [TGT] will soon announce the United States intends to pull out of NAFTA  two government sources said on Wednesday  sending the Canadian and Mexican currencies lower and hurting stocks.
The comments cast further doubt on prospects for talks to modernize the trilateral North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)  which   [TGT]   has repeatedly threatened to abandon unless major changes are made.
It is not certain the United States would quit NAFTA even if   [TGT]   gave the required six monthsâ notice  since   [TGT]   is not obliged to act once the deadline runs out. Notice of withdrawal could also raise opposition in Congress.
One of the Canadian government sources also said later it was not certain that   [TGT] would move against the treaty and that Ottawa was prepared for many scenarios.
âThe government is increasingly sure about this ... it is now planning for   [TGT] to announce a withdrawal â one of the sources  who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the situation  said.
Separately  a U.S. source close to the White House quoted   [TGT] as saying âI want outâ as the talks drag on with little sign of progress.
  [TGT] has long called the 1994 treaty a bad deal that hurts American workers.   [TGT]   negotiating team has set proposals that have alarmed their Canadian and Mexican counterparts.
Scott Minerd  Global Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Partners  said âif   [TGT]   were to announce a NAFTA exit  the stock market would probably pull back by 5 percent or so before advancing to new highs. Most likely the Canadians are reacting to the Presidentâs negotiating posture.â
The Canadian sources said that if   [TGT] did announce the United States was pulling out  Canada would stay at the table  since the talks would continue at a lower level. Mexico has previously said it would walk away if   [TGT]   formally announced Washington intended to quit.
Canadian officials say if   [TGT]   does announce a U.S. withdrawal   it  could be a negotiating tactic designed to win concessions. The talks are scheduled to wrap up by the end of March.